WorldWideScience

Sample records for antarctic lakes models

  1. Modeling Antarctic Subglacial Lake Filling and Drainage Cycles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dow, Christine F.; Werder, Mauro A.; Nowicki, Sophie; Walker, Ryan T.

    2016-01-01

    The growth and drainage of active subglacial lakes in Antarctica has previously been inferred from analysis of ice surface altimetry data. We use a subglacial hydrology model applied to a synthetic Antarctic ice stream to examine internal controls on the filling and drainage of subglacial lakes. Our model outputs suggest that the highly constricted subglacial environment of our idealized ice stream, combined with relatively high rates of water flow funneled from a large catchment, can combine to create a system exhibiting slow-moving pressure waves. Over a period of years, the accumulation of water in the ice stream onset region results in a buildup of pressure creating temporary channels, which then evacuate the excess water. This increased flux of water beneath the ice stream drives lake growth. As the water body builds up, it steepens the hydraulic gradient out of the overdeepened lake basin and allows greater flux. Eventually this flux is large enough to melt channels that cause the lake to drain. Lake drainage also depends on the internal hydrological development in the wider system and therefore does not directly correspond to a particular water volume or depth. This creates a highly temporally and spatially variable system, which is of interest for assessing the importance of subglacial lakes in ice stream hydrology and dynamics.

  2. Modeling Antarctic subglacial lake filling and drainage cycles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dow, Christine F.; Werder, Mauro A.; Nowicki, Sophie; Walker, Ryan T.

    2016-07-01

    The growth and drainage of active subglacial lakes in Antarctica has previously been inferred from analysis of ice surface altimetry data. We use a subglacial hydrology model applied to a synthetic Antarctic ice stream to examine internal controls on the filling and drainage of subglacial lakes. Our model outputs suggest that the highly constricted subglacial environment of our idealized ice stream, combined with relatively high rates of water flow funneled from a large catchment, can combine to create a system exhibiting slow-moving pressure waves. Over a period of years, the accumulation of water in the ice stream onset region results in a buildup of pressure creating temporary channels, which then evacuate the excess water. This increased flux of water beneath the ice stream drives lake growth. As the water body builds up, it steepens the hydraulic gradient out of the overdeepened lake basin and allows greater flux. Eventually this flux is large enough to melt channels that cause the lake to drain. Lake drainage also depends on the internal hydrological development in the wider system and therefore does not directly correspond to a particular water volume or depth. This creates a highly temporally and spatially variable system, which is of interest for assessing the importance of subglacial lakes in ice stream hydrology and dynamics.

  3. Carbon dynamics modelization and biological community sensitivity to temperature in an oligotrophic freshwater Antarctic lake

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Antonio Villaescusa, Juan; Jorgensen, Sven Erik; Rochera, Carlos

    2016-01-01

    , and therefore its abundance in lake water, greatly increased when temperature rise was higher. However, the highly variable meteorology over years in such an extreme environment causes that our model may fit well for some years, but fails to describe the system in years with contrasting meteorological...... conditions. Despite this assumption, the model reveals that maritime Antarctic lakes are very sensitive to temperature changes. This response can be monitored using eco-exergy, which allows a description of the system complexity. Due to this temperature sensitivity, the warming occurring in this area would...... interannual variability in the area of Byers Peninsula. With the aim of increasing the knowledge of this ecosystem and its sensibility to climate change as a model ecosystem, as well as to calibrate the extent of the interannual variability, a carbon flow model was developed partly describing its microbial...

  4. Antarctic Subglacial Lake Classification Inventory, Version 1

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This data set is an Antarctic radar-based subglacial lake classification collection, which focuses on the radar reflection properties of each given lake.

  5. NEW FRONTIERS OF ANTARCTIC SUBGLACIAL LAKES EXPLORATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pavel Talalay

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Antarctic subglacial aquatic environment have become of great interest to the science community because they may provide unique information about microbial evolution, the past climate of the Earth, and the formation of the Antarctic ice sheet. Nowadays it is generally recognized that a vast network of lakes, rivers, and streams exists thousands of meters beneath Antarctic Ice Sheets. Up to date only four boreholes accessed subglacial aquatic system but three of them were filled with high-toxic drilling fluid, and the subglacial water was contaminated. Two recent exploration programs proposed by UK and USA science communities anticipate direct access down to the lakes Ellsworth and Whillans, respectively, in the 2012/2013 Antarctic season. A team of British scientists and engineers engage in the first attempt to drill into Lake Ellsworth but failed. US research team has successfully drilled through 800 m of Antarctic ice to reach a subglacial lake Whillans and retrieve water and sediment samples. Both activities used hot-water drilling technology to access lakes. The main troublesome of the implemented and planned projects for accessing of Antarctic subglacial lakes is connected with the hydrostatic unbalance resulted in the upwelling of water into the hole with subsequent difficulties. The proposed RECoverable Autonomous Sonde “RECAS” would measure and sample subglacial water while subglacial lake is reliably isolated from surface environment, and at the same time the sonde is able to measure geochemical signals in situ throughout the depth of ice sheet on the way to the bed. All process is going on in semi-automatic mode, and the estimated duration of subglacial lake exploration at the depth of 3500 m is 8–9 months. The general concept of the sonde as well as proposed power-supply and performance are given.

  6. Antarctic Subglacial Lake Drainage Via Canals Incised Into Sediment: Progress From Modelling And Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carter, S. P.; Fricker, H. A.; Siegfried, M. R.

    2015-12-01

    Traditional models for the subglacial drainage of ice-dammed lakes in temperate environments invoke a channel eroded into the deformable ice above the bed. In Antarctica, however, modelling studies imply that conditions are more favourable to the drainage of water through channels eroded into the underlying sediments or till, commonly referred to as "canals". We have developed a model for the discharge of "active" subglacial lakes in Antarctica employing drainage through canals and tested its predictions for ice surface drawdown and rate of outflow against satellite- and ground-based observations. Our modeled outflow from a lake begins as a distributed flow, which evolves to incise a channel into the sediment as outflow rates increase. With further erosion, the canal aperture increases and soon quickly become the dominant flow mechanism, pulling water away from the distributed system. Lower pressure within the canal allows the lake to drain to levels below that necessary to initiate outflow, but also allows the sediment to flow into the canal. This deformational closure of the canal typically, ends lake drainage before all water is evacuated. The observed ice speedups associated with lake drainage appear to correlate not with peak total outflow, but with the peak in distributed outflow that before an effective channel is incised. Peak channelized flow reduces water pressure leading to a net slowdown relative to a steady-state distributed drainage. Although sensitivity studies indicate that rate of channel grown and contraction are highly dependent on relatively unconstrained sediment properties (e.g. grain size, porosity), the total drawdown and peak outflow rates for nearly every active lake identified in Antarctica so far all fall within 2 orders of magnitude of one another. The small spread of observations compared to the parameter space of the sensitivity study may indicate either that there is a feedback mechanism for maintaining optimal sediment properties

  7. Antarctic Active Subglacial Lake Inventory from ICESat Altimetry, Version 1

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This data set contains lake boundaries, volume changes, and gridded elevations for 124 active subglacial lakes beneath the Antarctic ice sheet. Lakes were identified...

  8. Development of a regional glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraether (GDGT)-temperature calibration for Antarctic and sub-Antarctic lakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foster, Louise C.; Pearson, Emma J.; Juggins, Steve; Hodgson, Dominic A.; Saunders, Krystyna M.; Verleyen, Elie; Roberts, Stephen J.

    2016-01-01

    A regional network of quantitative reconstructions of past climate variability is required to test climate models. In recent studies, temperature calibration models based on the relative abundances of sedimentary glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers (GDGTs) have enabled past temperature reconstructions in both marine and terrestrial environments. Nevertheless, to date these methods have not been widely applied in high latitude environments due to poor performance of the GDGT-temperature calibrations at lower temperatures. To address this we studied 32 lakes from Antarctica, the sub-Antarctic Islands and Southern Chile to: 1) quantify their GDGT composition and investigate the environmental controls on GDGT composition; and 2) develop a GDGT-temperature calibration model for inferring past temperatures from Antarctic and sub-Antarctic lakes. GDGTs were found in all 32 lakes studied and in 31 lakes branched GDGTs (brGDGTs) were the dominant compounds. Statistical analyses of brGDGT composition in relation to temperature, pH, conductivity and water depth showed that the composition of brGDGTs is strongly correlated with mean summer air temperature (MSAT). This enabled the development of the first regional brGDGT-temperature calibration for use in Antarctic and sub-Antarctic lakes using four brGDGT compounds (GDGT-Ib, GDGT-II, GDGT-III and GDGT-IIIb). A key discovery was that GDGT-IIIb is of particular importance in cold lacustrine environments. The addition of this compound significantly improved the model's performance from r2 = 0.67, RMSEP-LOO (leave-one-out) = 2.23 °C, RMSEP-H (h-block) = 2.37 °C when applying the re-calibrated global GDGT-temperature calibration to our Antarctic dataset to r2 = 0.83, RMSEP-LOO = 1.68 °C, RMSEP-H = 1.65 °C for our new Antarctic calibration. This shows that Antarctic and sub-Antarctic, and possibly other high latitude, palaeotemperature reconstructions should be based on a regional GDGT-temperature calibration where specific

  9. Modelling the Antarctic Ice Sheet

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Jens Olaf Pepke; Holm, A.

    2015-01-01

    Science) Antarctic Ice Sheet (DAIS) model (Shaffer 2014) is forced by reconstructed time series of Antarctic temperature, global sea level and ocean subsurface temperature over the last two glacial cycles. In this talk a modelling work of the Antarctic ice sheet over most of the Cenozoic era using...... the DAIS model will be presented. G. Shaffer (2014) Formulation, calibration and validation of the DAIS model (version 1), a simple Antarctic ice sheet model sensitive to variations of sea level and ocean subsurface temperature, Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 1803‐1818...

  10. Maritime antarctic lakes as sentinels of climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Camacho, A.; Rochera, C.; Villaescusa, J. A.; Velázquez, D.; Toro, M.; Rico, E.; Fernández-Valiente, E.; Justel, Ana; Bañón García, Manuel; Quesada, Antonio

    2012-01-01

    Remote lakes, such as lakes from the Maritime Antarctica, can be used as sentinels of climate change, because they are mostly free of direct anthropogenic pressures, and they experience climate change as a main stressor capable of modifying the ecosystem structure and function. In this paper, the content of a lecture that has been presented at the First Conference of Lake Sustainability, which has been centred in our studies on lakes from Byers Peninsula (Maritime Antarctic...

  11. Predicting subglacial lakes and meltwater drainage pathways beneath the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Livingstone, S. J.; Clark, C. D.; Woodward, J.

    2013-03-01

    In this paper we use the Shreve hydraulic potential equation to predict subglacial lakes and meltwater drainage pathways beneath the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets. For the Antarctic Ice Sheet we are able to predict known subglacial lakes with a >70% success rate, which demonstrates the validity of this method. Despite the success in predicting known subglacial lakes the calculations produce two-orders of magnitude more lakes than are presently identified, covering 4% of the ice-sheet bed. The difference is thought to result from our poor knowledge of the bed (which has resulted in artefacts associated with the interpolation method), intrinsic errors associated with the simplified modelling approach and because thousands of subglacial lakes, particularly smaller ones, remain to be found. Applying the same modelling approach to the Greenland Ice Sheet predicts only 90 lakes under the present-day ice-sheet configuration, covering 0.2% of the bed. The paucity of subglacial lakes in Greenland is thought to be a function of steeper overall ice-surface gradients. As no lakes have currently been located under Greenland, model predictions will make suitable targets for radar surveys of Greenland to identify subglacial lakes. During deglaciation from the Last Glacial Maximum both ice sheets had more subglacial lakes at their beds, though many of these lakes have persisted to present conditions. These lakes, inherited from past ice-sheet configurations would not form under current surface conditions, suggesting a retreating ice-sheet will have many more subglacial lakes than an advancing ice sheet. This hysteresis effect has implications for ice-stream formation and flow, bed lubrication and meltwater drainage. The lake model also allows modelling of the drainage pathways of the present-day and former Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. Significantly, key sectors of the ice sheets, such as the Siple Coast (Antarctica) and NE Greenland Ice Stream system, are shown to have

  12. Potential subglacial lake locations and meltwater drainage pathways beneath the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Livingstone, S. J.; Clark, C. D.; Woodward, J.; Kingslake, J.

    2013-11-01

    We use the Shreve hydraulic potential equation as a simplified approach to investigate potential subglacial lake locations and meltwater drainage pathways beneath the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets. We validate the method by demonstrating its ability to recall the locations of >60% of the known subglacial lakes beneath the Antarctic Ice Sheet. This is despite uncertainty in the ice-sheet bed elevation and our simplified modelling approach. However, we predict many more lakes than are observed. Hence we suggest that thousands of subglacial lakes remain to be found. Applying our technique to the Greenland Ice Sheet, where very few subglacial lakes have so far been observed, recalls 1607 potential lake locations, covering 1.2% of the bed. Our results will therefore provide suitable targets for geophysical surveys aimed at identifying lakes beneath Greenland. We also apply the technique to modelled past ice-sheet configurations and find that during deglaciation both ice sheets likely had more subglacial lakes at their beds. These lakes, inherited from past ice-sheet configurations, would not form under current surface conditions, but are able to persist, suggesting a retreating ice-sheet will have many more subglacial lakes than advancing ones. We also investigate subglacial drainage pathways of the present-day and former Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. Key sectors of the ice sheets, such as the Siple Coast (Antarctica) and NE Greenland Ice Stream system, are suggested to have been susceptible to subglacial drainage switching. We discuss how our results impact our understanding of meltwater drainage, basal lubrication and ice-stream formation.

  13. The Distribution of Antarctic Subglacial Lake Environments With Implications for Their Origin and Evolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blankenship, D. D.; Young, D. A.; Carter, S. P.

    2006-12-01

    Ice-penetrating radar records across the Antarctic Ice Sheet show regions with strong flat mirror-like reflections from the subglacial interface that are interpreted to be from subglacial lakes. The majority of subglacial lakes are found in East Antarctica, primarily in topographically low areas of basins beneath the thick ice divides. Occasionally lakes are observed "perched" at higher elevations within local depressions of rough morphological regions. In addition, a correlation between the "onset" of enhanced glacial flow and subglacial lakes was identified. The greatest concentration of known lakes was found in the vicinity of Dome C. A second grouping of lakes lying near Ridge B includes Lake Vostok and several smaller lakes. Subglacial lakes were also discovered near the South Pole, within eastern Wilkes Land, west of the Transantarctic Mountains, and within West Antarctica's Whitmore Mountains. Aside from Lake Vostok, typical lengths of subglacial lakes were found to range from a few to about 20 kilometers. A recent inventory includes 145 subglacial lakes. Approximately 81% of detected lakes lie at elevations less than a few hundred meters above sea level while the majority of the remaining lakes are "perched" at higher elevations. We present the locations from the subglacial lake inventory on local "ice divides" calculated from the satellite derived surface elevations with and find the distance of each lake from these divides. Most significantly, we found that 66% of the lakes identified lie within 50 km of a local ice divide and 88% lie within 100 km of a local divide. In particular, note that lakes located far from the Dome C/Ridge B cluster and even those associated with very narrow catchments lie either on or within a few tens of kilometers of the local divide marked by the catchment boundary. The distance correlation of subglacial lakes with local ice divides leads to a fundamental question for the evolution of subglacial lake environments: Does the

  14. Ciliated protozoa of two antarctic lakes: analysis by quantitative protargol staining and examination of artificial substrates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kepner, R. L. Jr; Wharton, R. A. Jr; Coats, D. W.; Wharton RA, J. r. (Principal Investigator)

    1999-01-01

    Planktonic and artificial substrate-associated ciliates have been identified in two perennially ice-covered antarctic lakes of the McMurdo Dry Valleys. Abundances estimated by quantitative protargol staining ranged from < 5 to 31690 cells l-1, levels that are comparable to those previously obtained using other methods. Nineteen ciliate taxa were identified from these lakes, with the most frequently encountered genera being Plagiocampa, Askenasia, Monodinium, Sphaerophrya and Vorticella. The taxonomic findings compare favorably with those of previous investigators; however four previously unreported genera were observed in both Lakes Fryxell and Hoare. The variability in the depth distributions of ciliates in Lake Fryxell is explained in terms of lake physicochemical properties and ciliate prey distributions, while factors related to temporal succession in the Lake Hoare assemblage remain unexplained. Local marine or temperate zone freshwater habitats are a more likely source than the surrounding dry valleys soils for present ciliate colonists in these lakes. Although the taxonomic uncertainties require further examination, our results suggest that ciliate populations in these antarctic lakes undergo significant fluctuations and are more diverse than was previously recognized.

  15.  Marine derived dinoflagellates in Antarctic saline lakes: Community composition and annual dynamics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rengefors, K.; Layborn-Parry, L.; Logares, R.

    2008-01-01

    leaving a small number of well-adapted species. Our objective was to investigate the species composition and annual dynamics of dinoflagellate communities in three saline Antarctic lakes. We observed that dinoflagellates occur year-round despite extremely low PAR during the southern winter, which suggests...... polar dinoflagellate community, and not freshwater species. Polarella glacialis Montresor, Procaccini et Stoecker, a bipolar marine species, was for the first time described in a lake habitat and was an important phototrophic component in the higher salinity lakes. In the brackish lakes, we found a new......The saline lakes of the Vestfold Hills in Antarctica offer a remarkable natural laboratory where the adaptation of planktonic protists to a range of evolving physiochemical conditions can be investigated. This study illustrates how an ancestral marine community has undergone radical simplification...

  16. Chemistry of snow and lake water in Antarctic region

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Surface snow and lake water samples were collected at different locations around Indian station at Antarctica, Maitri, during December 2004-March 2005 and December 2006-March 2007.Samples were analyzed for major chemical ions. It is found that average pH value of snow is 6.1. Average pH value of lake water with ...

  17. Chemistry of snow and lake water in Antarctic region

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Surface snow and lake water samples were collected at different locations around Indian station at. Antarctica, Maitri, during December 2004–March 2005 and December 2006–March 2007. Samples were analyzed for major chemical ions. It is found that average pH value of snow is 6.1. Average pH value of lake water with ...

  18. Stable water isotopic composition of the Antarctic subglacial Lake Vostok: implications for understanding the lake's hydrology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ekaykin, Alexey A; Lipenkov, Vladimir Y; Kozachek, Anna V; Vladimirova, Diana O

    2016-01-01

    We estimated the stable isotopic composition of water from the subglacial Lake Vostok using two different sets of samples: (1) water frozen on the drill bit immediately after the first lake unsealing and (2) water frozen in the borehole after the unsealing and re-drilled one year later. The most reliable values of the water isotopic composition are: -59.0 ± 0.3 ‰ for oxygen-18, -455 ± 1 ‰ for deuterium and 17 ± 1 ‰ for d-excess. This result is also confirmed by the modelling of isotopic transformations in the water which froze in the borehole, and by a laboratory experiment simulating this process. A comparison of the newly obtained water isotopic composition with that of the lake ice (-56.2 ‰ for oxygen-18, -442.4 ‰ for deuterium and 7.2 ‰ for d-excess) leads to the conclusion that the lake ice is very likely formed in isotopic equilibrium with water. In turn, this means that ice is formed by a slow freezing without formation of frazil ice crystals and/or water pockets. This conclusion agrees well with the observed physical and chemical properties of the lake's accreted ice. However, our estimate of the water's isotopic composition is only valid for the upper water layer and may not be representative for the deeper layers of the lake, so further investigations are required.

  19. Lipophilic pigments from the benthos of a perennially ice-covered Antarctic lake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palmisano, A. C.; Wharton, R. A. Jr; Cronin, S. E.; Des Marais, D. J.; Wharton RA, J. r. (Principal Investigator)

    1989-01-01

    The benthos of a perennially ice-covered Antarctic lake, Lake Hoare, contained three distinct 'signatures' of lipophilic pigments. Cyanobacterial mats found in the moat at the periphery of the lake were dominated by the carotenoid myxoxanthophyll; carotenoids: chlorophyll a ratios in this high light environment ranged from 3 to 6.8. Chlorophyll c and fucoxanthin, pigments typical of golden-brown algae, were found at 10 to 20 m depths where the benthos is aerobic. Anaerobic benthic sediments at 20 to 30 m depths were characterized by a third pigment signature dominated by a carotenoid, tentatively identified as alloxanthin from planktonic cryptomonads, and by phaeophytin b from senescent green algae. Pigments were not found associated with alternating organic and sediment layers. As microzooplankton grazers are absent from this closed system and transformation rates are reduced at low temperatures, the benthos beneath the lake ice appears to contain a record of past phytoplankton blooms undergoing decay.

  20. Plectolyngbya hodgsonii: a novel filamentous cyanobacterium from Antarctic lakes

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Taton, A.; Wilmotte, A.; Šmarda, J.; Elster, Josef; Komárek, Jiří

    2011-01-01

    Roč. 34, č. 2 (2011), 181-191 ISSN 0722-4060 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA206/05/0253 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z60050516 Keywords : Antarctica * benthos of lake * cyanobacteria Subject RIV: EF - Botanics Impact factor: 1.659, year: 2011

  1. [Near infrared reflectance spectroscopy (NIRS): a novel approach to reconstructing historical changes of primary productivity in Antarctic lake].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Qian-Qian; Liu, Xiao-Dong; Liu, Wen-Qi; Jiang, Shan

    2011-10-01

    Compared with traditional chemical analysis methods, reflectance spectroscopy has the advantages of speed, minimal or no sample preparation, non-destruction, and low cost. In order to explore the potential application of spectroscopy technology in the paleolimnological study on Antarctic lakes, we took a lake sediment core in Mochou Lake at Zhongshan Station of Antarctic, and analyzed the near infrared reflectance spectroscopy (NIRS) data in the sedimentary samples. The results showed that the factor loadings of principal component analysis (PCA) displayed very similar depth-profile change pattern with the S2 index, a reliable proxy for the change in historical lake primary productivity. The correlation analysis showed that the values of PCA factor loading and S2 were correlated significantly, suggesting that it is feasible to infer paleoproductivity changes recorded in Antarctic lakes using NIRS technology. Compared to the traditional method of the trough area between 650 and 700 nm, the authors found that the PCA statistical approach was more accurate for reconstructing the change in historical lake primary productivity. The results reported here demonstrate that reflectance spectroscopy can provide a rapid method for the reconstruction of lake palaeoenviro nmental change in the remote Antarctic regions.

  2. Legacies of recent environmental change in the benthic communities of Lake Joyce, a perennially ice-covered Antarctic lake.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hawes, I; Sumner, D Y; Andersen, D T; Mackey, T J

    2011-09-01

    Many Antarctic lakes provide habitat for extensive microbial mats that respond on various timescales to environmental change. Lake Joyce contains calcifying microbialites and provides a natural laboratory to constrain how environmental changes influence microbialite development. In Lake Joyce, depth-specific distributions of calcitic microbialites, organic carbon, photosynthetic pigments and photosynthetic potential cannot be explained by current growth conditions, but are a legacy of a 7-m lake level rise between 1973 and 2009. In the well-illuminated margins of the lake, photosynthetically active benthic communities colonised surfaces submerged for just a few years. However, observed increases in accumulated organic material with depth from 5 to 20 m (2-40 mg ash-free dry weight cm(-2)) and the presence of decimetre-scale calcite microbialites at 20-22 m depth, apparently related to in situ photosynthetic growth, are inconsistent with the current distributions of irradiance, photosynthetic pigments and mat photosynthetic potential (as revealed by pulse-amplitude-modulated fluorometry). The microbialites appeared photosynthetically active in 1986 and 1997, but were outside the depth zone where significant phototrophic growth was possible and were weakly photosynthetically competent in 2009. These complex microbial structures have persisted after growth has ceased, demonstrating how fluctuating environmental conditions and the hysteresis between environmental change, biological response and microbialite development can be important factors to consider when interpreting modern, and by inference ancient, microbially mediated structures. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  3. Radarsat Antarctic Mapping Project Digital Elevation Model, Version 2

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The high-resolution Radarsat Antarctic Mapping Project (RAMP) Digital Elevation Model (DEM) combines topographic data from a variety of sources to provide consistent...

  4. Tardigrade eggs and exuviae in Antarctic lake sediments: insights into Holocene dynamics and origins of the fauna

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sandra J. MCINNES

    2007-09-01

    Full Text Available The preservation of tardigrade eggs and exuviae in Antarctic lake sediments provided an opportunity to assess post-glacial colonisation and Holocene tardigrade dynamics on the southern continent. Tardigrade eggs were recovered from five lakes, two from the maritime Antarctic and three from continental Antarctica. Eggs were identified from the following species: Dactylobiotus cf. ambiguus, Macrobiotus furciger, Macrobiotus blocki, Minibiotus weinerorum and Acutuncus antarcticus. Other, unornamented eggs were also observed. The preservation of some of these eggs in exuviae allowed identification to at least genus. Significant variations were observed in egg abundance within the sediment of each lake, and in one lake a species (Dactylobiotus cf. ambiguus became locally extinct, probably as the result of penguin-associated eutrophication. Tardigrades generally did not become abundant for a considerable period after the lakes’ formation. The presence of an in-part endemic fauna is consistent with slow colonisation from Antarctic sources rather than wind transport from extra-continental sites. Tardigrade eggs appear to be abundant in high-latitude lake sediments, and greater use could be made of these records when evaluating tardigrade dynamics during the Holocene.

  5. Maneuver simulation model of an experimental hovercraft for the Antarctic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murao, Rinichi

    Results of an investigation of a hovercraft model designed for Antarctic conditions are presented. The buoyancy characteristics, the propellant control system, and simulation model control are examined. An ACV (air cushion vehicle) model of the hovercraft is used to examine the flexibility and friction of the skirt. Simulation results are presented which show the performance of the hovercraft.

  6. Plankton assembly in an ultra-oligotrophic Antarctic lake over the summer transition from the ice-cover to ice-free period: A size spectra approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rochera, Carlos; Quesada, Antonio; Toro, Manuel; Rico, Eugenio; Camacho, Antonio

    2017-03-01

    Lakes from the Antarctic maritime region experience climate change as a main stressor capable of modifying their plankton community structure and function, essentially because summer temperatures are commonly over the freezing point and the lake's ice cap thaws. This study was conducted in such seasonally ice-covered lake (Lake Limnopolar, Byers Peninsula, Livingston Is., Antarctica), which exhibits a microbial dominated pelagic food web. An important feature is also the occurrence of benthic mosses (Drepanocladus longifolius) covering the lake bottom. Plankton dynamics were investigated during the ice-thawing transition to the summer maximum. Both bacterioplankton and viral-like particles were higher near the lake's bottom, suggesting a benthic support. When the lake was under dim conditions because of the snow-and-ice cover, autotrophic picoplankters dominated at deep layers. The taxa-specific photopigments indicated dominance of picocyanobacteria among them when the light availability was lower. By contrast, larger and less edible phytoplankton dominated at the onset of the ice melting. The plankton size spectra were fitted to the continuous model of Pareto distribution. Spectra evolved similarly at two sampled depths, in surface and near the bottom, with slopes increasing until mid-January. However, slopes were less steep (i.e., size classes more uniformly distributed) at the bottom, thus denoting a more efficient utilization of resources. These findings suggest that microbial loop pathways in the lake are efficiently channelized during some periods to the metazoan production (mainly the copepod Boeckella poppei). Our results point to that trophic interactions may still occur in these lakes despite environmental harshness. This results of interest in a framework of increasing temperatures that may reduce the climatic restrictions and therefore stimulate biotic interactions.

  7. Modeling the Thermal Interactions of Meteorites Below the Antarctic Ice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oldroyd, William Jared; Radebaugh, Jani; Stephens, Denise C.; Lorenz, Ralph; Harvey, Ralph; Karner, James

    2017-10-01

    Meteorites with high specific gravities, such as irons, appear to be underrepresented in Antarctic collections over the last 40 years. This underrepresentation is in comparison with observed meteorite falls, which are believed to represent the actual population of meteorites striking Earth. Meteorites on the Antarctic ice sheet absorb solar flux, possibly leading to downward tunneling into the ice, though observations of this in action are very limited. This descent is counteracted by ice sheet flow supporting the meteorites coupled with ablation near mountain margins, which helps to force meteorites towards the surface. Meteorites that both absorb adequate thermal energy and are sufficiently dense may instead reach a shallow equilibrium depth as downward melting overcomes upward forces during the Antarctic summer. Using a pyronometer, we have measured the incoming solar flux at multiple depths in two deep field sites in Antarctica, the Miller Range and Elephant Moraine. We compare these data with laboratory analogues and model the thermal and physical interactions between a variety of meteorites and their surroundings. Our Matlab code model will account for a wide range of parameters used to characterize meteorites in an Antarctic environment. We will present the results of our model along with depth estimates for several types of meteorites. The recovery of an additional population of heavy meteorites would increase our knowledge of the formation and composition of the solar system.

  8. Lake Michigan lake trout PCB model forecast post audit

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scenario forecasts for total PCBs in Lake Michigan (LM) lake trout were conducted using the linked LM2-Toxics and LM Food Chain models, supported by a suite of additional LM models. Efforts were conducted under the Lake Michigan Mass Balance Study and the post audit represents th...

  9. Diversity of proteolytic microbes isolated from Antarctic freshwater lakes and characteristics of their cold-active proteases

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matsui, Mihoko; Kawamata, Akinori; Kosugi, Makiko; Imura, Satoshi; Kurosawa, Norio

    2017-09-01

    Despite being an extreme environment, the water temperature of freshwater lakes in Antarctica reaches 10 °C in summer, accelerating biological activity. In these environments, proteolytic microbial decomposers may play a large role in protein hydrolysis. We isolated 71 microbial strains showing proteolytic activity at 4 °C from three Antarctic freshwater lakes. They were classified as bacteria (63 isolates) and eukaryotes (8 isolates). The bacterial isolates were classified into the genera Flavobacterium (28 isolates), Pseudomonas (14 isolates), Arthrobacter (10 isolates), Psychrobacter (7 isolates), Cryobacterium (2 isolates), Hymenobacter (1 isolate), and Polaromonas (1 isolate). Five isolates of Flavobacterium and one of Hymenobacter seemed to belong to novel species. All eukaryotic isolates belonged to Glaciozyma antarctica, a psychrophilic yeast species originally isolated from the Weddell Sea near the Joinville Island, Antarctica. A half of representative strains were psychrophilic and did not grow at temperatures above 25 °C. The protease secreted by Pseudomonas prosekii strain ANS4-1 showed the highest activity among all proteases from representative isolates. The results of inhibitor tests indicated that nearly all the isolates secreted metalloproteases. Proteases from four representative isolates retained more than 30% maximal activity at 0 °C. These results expand our knowledge about microbial protein degradation in Antarctic freshwater lakes.

  10. Organic and mineral imprints in fossil photosynthetic mats of an East Antarctic lake.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lepot, K; Compère, P; Gérard, E; Namsaraev, Z; Verleyen, E; Tavernier, I; Hodgson, D A; Vyverman, W; Gilbert, B; Wilmotte, A; Javaux, E J

    2014-09-01

    Lacustrine microbial mats in Antarctic ice-free oases are considered modern analogues of early microbial ecosystems as their primary production is generally dominated by cyanobacteria, the heterotrophic food chain typically truncated due to extreme environmental conditions, and they are geographically isolated. To better understand early fossilization and mineralization processes in this context, we studied the microstructure and chemistry of organo-mineral associations in a suite of sediments 50-4530 cal. years old from a lake in Skarvsnes, Lützow Holm Bay, East Antarctica. First, we report an exceptional preservation of fossil autotrophs and their biomolecules on millennial timescales. The pigment scytonemin is preserved inside cyanobacterial sheaths. As non-pigmented sheaths are also preserved, scytonemin likely played little role in the preservation of sheath polysaccharides, which have been cross-linked by ether bonds. Coccoids preserved thylakoids and autofluorescence of pigments such as carotenoids. This exceptional preservation of autotrophs in the fossil mats argues for limited biodegradation during and after deposition. Moreover, cell-shaped aggregates preserved sulfur-rich nanoglobules, supporting fossilization of instable intracellular byproducts of chemotrophic or phototrophic S-oxidizers. Second, we report a diversity of micro- to nanostructured CaCO3 precipitates intimately associated with extracellular polymeric substances, cyanobacteria, and/or other prokaryotes. Micro-peloids Type 1 display features that distinguish them from known carbonates crystallized in inorganic conditions: (i) Type 1A are often filled with globular nanocarbonates and/or surrounded by a fibrous fringe, (ii) Type 1B are empty and display ovoid to wrinkled fringes of nanocrystallites that can be radially oriented (fibrous or triangular) or multilayered, and (iii) all show small-size variations. Type 2 rounded carbonates 1-2 μm in diameter occurring inside autofluorescent

  11. Study of the Microbial Diversity of a Newly Discovered East Antarctic Freshwater Lake, L27C, and of a Perennially Ice-Covered Lake Untersee

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Jonathan P.; Hoover, Richard B.; Andersen, Dale; Bej, Asim K.

    2010-01-01

    The microbial communities that reside within freshwater lakes of Schirmacher and Untersee Oases in East Antarctica must cope with extreme conditions that may include cold temperature, annual freeze-thaw cycles, exposure to UV radiation, especially during the austral summer months, low light beneath thick ice-cover, followed by seasonal darkness. The objective of this study was to assess the microbial biodiversity and distribution from samples taken from two freshwater lakes (L27C and Lake Untersee) that were collected during the Tawani 2008 International Antarctic Expedition that conducted research in this region of Antarctica. L27C is a small, previously unreported lake residing 2 km WNW of Maitri Station at Schirmacher Oasis. Biodiversity and distribution of microorganisms within the lake were studied using both culture-independent and culture-dependent methodologies based upon the analysis of eubacterial 16S rRNA gene sequences. Lake Untersee, a perennially ice-covered, ultra-oligotrophic, lake in the Otto-von-Gruber-Gebirge (Gruber Mountains) of central Dronning Maud Land was also sampled and the microbial diversity was analyzed by eubacterial 16S rRNA gene sequences derived from pure cultures. Direct culturing of water samples from each lake on separate R2A growth medium exhibited a variety of microorganisms including: Janthinobacterium, Hymenobacter, Sphingamonas, Subtercola, Deinococcus, Arthrobacter, Flavobacterium, Polaromonas, Rhodoferax and Duganella. The evaluation of samples from L27C through culture-independent methodology identified a rich microbial diversity consisting of six different phyla of bacteria. The culture-independent analysis also displayed the majority of bacteria (56%) belonged to the Class gamma-proteobacteria within the phylum Proteobacteria. Within the Class gamma-proteobacteria, Acinetobacter dominated (48%) the total microbial load. Overall, L27C exhibited 7 different phyla of bacteria and 20 different genera. Statistical analysis

  12. Antarctic lakes suggest millennial reorganizations of Southern Hemisphere atmospheric and oceanic circulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hall, Brenda L; Denton, George H; Fountain, Andrew G; Hendy, Chris H; Henderson, Gideon M

    2010-12-14

    The phasing of millennial-scale oscillations in Antarctica relative to those elsewhere in the world is important for discriminating among models for abrupt climate change, particularly those involving the Southern Ocean. However, records of millennial-scale variability from Antarctica dating to the last glacial maximum are rare and rely heavily on data from widely spaced ice cores, some of which show little variability through that time. Here, we present new data from closed-basin lakes in the Dry Valleys region of East Antarctica that show high-magnitude, high-frequency oscillations in surface level during the late Pleistocene synchronous with climate fluctuations elsewhere in the Southern Hemisphere. These data suggest a coherent Southern Hemisphere pattern of climate change on millennial time scales, at least in the Pacific sector, and indicate that any hypothesis concerning the origin of these events must account for synchronous changes in both high and temperate latitudes.

  13. The distribution of basal water between Antarctic subglacial lakes from radar sounding.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Young, D A; Schroeder, D M; Blankenship, D D; Kempf, Scott D; Quartini, E

    2016-01-28

    Antarctica's subglacial lakes have two end member geophysical expressions: as hydraulically flat, radar reflective regions highlighted in ice surface topography and radar sounding profiles ('definite lakes'), and as localized sites of elevation change identified from repeat elevation observations ('active lakes') that are often found in fast flowing ice streams or enhanced ice flow tributaries. While 'definite lakes' can be identified readily by high bed reflectivity in radar sounding, the identification and characterization of less distinct subglacial lakes and water systems with radar sounding are complicated by variable radio-wave attenuation in the overlying ice. When relying on repeat elevation observations, the relatively short times series and biased distribution of elevation observations, along with the episodic nature of 'active lake' outflow and replenishment, limit our understanding of how water flows under the ice sheet. Using recently developed methods for quantifying the radar scattering behaviour of the basal interface of the ice, we can avoid the problem of attenuation, and observe the plumbing of the subglacial landscape. In West Antarctica's Ross Sea Embayment, we confirm that extensive distributed water systems underlie these ice streams. Distributed water sheets are upstream in the onset regions of fast flow, while canal systems underly downstream regions of fast flow. In East Antarctica, we use specularity analysis to recover substantial hydraulic connectivity extending beyond previous knowledge, connecting the lakes already delineated by traditional radar sounding or surface elevation transients. © 2015 The Author(s).

  14. Predictive modelling of (palaeo-)subglacial lake locations and their meltwater drainage routeways

    Science.gov (United States)

    Livingstone, S. J.; Clark, C.; Tarasoff, L.; Woodward, J.

    2013-12-01

    There is increasing recognition that subglacial lakes act as key components within the ice sheet system, capable of influencing ice-sheet topography, ice volume and ice flow. At present, much glaciological research is concerned with the role of modern subglacial lake systems in Antarctica. Another approach to the exploration of subglacial lakes involves identification of the geological record of subglacial lakes that once existed beneath ice sheets of the last glaciation. Investigation of such palaeo-subglacial lakes offers significant advantages because we have comprehensive information about the bed properties, they are much more accessible and we can examine and sample the sediments with ease. However, their identification in the geological record remains controversial. We therefore present a simple diagnostic approach based on the Shreve equation, for predicting and investigating likely (palaeo-)subglacial lake locations. Data on the current topography and seafloor bathymetry, and elevation models of the ice and ground surface topography from data-calibrated glaciological modelling are used to calculate the hydraulic potential surface at the ice-sheet bed. Meltwater routing algorithms and the flooding of local hydraulic minima allow us to predict subglacial routeways and lakes respectively. Discovered subglacial lakes beneath the Antarctic Ice Sheet present an opportunity to verify the model using the BEDMAP2 dataset. Using a lake threshold of 5 km2 we identify 12,767 subglacial lakes occurring over 4% of the grounded bed and are able to recover >60% of the discovered subglacial lakes. Applying the same approach to the Greenland Ice Sheet produces 1,607 potential subglacial lakes, covering 1.3% of the bed. These lake localities will make suitable targets for radar surveys attempting to find subglacial lakes. Finally, we apply the Shreve equation to the North American Ice Sheet to try and predict likely palaeo-subglacial lake locations. Given that specific ice

  15. Monitoring and Modelling Lakes and Coastal Environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Odada, Eric

    2009-01-01

    The monitoring and modeling of lakes and coastal environments is becoming ever more important, particularly because these environments bear heavy loads in terms of human population, and their resources are critical to the livelihoods and well-being of coastal inhabitants and ecosystems. Monitoring and Modelling Lakes and Coastal Environments is a collection of 18 papers arising from the Lake 2004 International Conference on Conservation, Restoration and Management of Lakes and Coastal Wetlands, held in Bhubaneswar, Orissa, India, 9-13 December 2004. Consequently, 15 of the papers are concerned with studies on the Indian subcontinent, and many of the papers focus on India's Lake Chilika, the site of a special session during the conference. Two papers concern Japan, and one focuses on North America's Great Lakes region. Although the book has a regional bias, the replication of best practices that can be drawn from these studies may be useful for an international audience.

  16. Post Audit of Lake Michigan Lake Trout PCB Model Forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Lake Michigan (LM) Mass Balance Study was conducted to measure and model polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and other anthropogenic substances to gain a better understanding of the transport, fate, and effects of these substances within the system and to aid managers in the env...

  17. Gaussian Process Model for Antarctic Surface Mass Balance and Ice Core Site Selection

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, P. A.; Reese, S.; Christensen, W. F.; Rupper, S.

    2017-12-01

    Surface mass balance (SMB) is an important factor in the estimation of sea level change, and data are collected to estimate models for prediction of SMB on the Antarctic ice sheet. Using Favier et al.'s (2013) quality-controlled aggregate data set of SMB field measurements, a fully Bayesian spatial model is posed to estimate Antarctic SMB and propose new field measurement locations. Utilizing Nearest-Neighbor Gaussian process (NNGP) models, SMB is estimated over the Antarctic ice sheet. An Antarctic SMB map is rendered using this model and is compared with previous estimates. A prediction uncertainty map is created to identify regions of high SMB uncertainty. The model estimates net SMB to be 2173 Gton yr-1 with 95% credible interval (2021,2331) Gton yr-1. On average, these results suggest lower Antarctic SMB and higher uncertainty than previously purported [Vaughan et al. (1999); Van de Berg et al. (2006); Arthern, Winebrenner and Vaughan (2006); Bromwich et al. (2004); Lenaerts et al. (2012)], even though this model utilizes significantly more observations than previous models. Using the Gaussian process' uncertainty and model parameters, we propose 15 new measurement locations for field study utilizing a maximin space-filling, error-minimizing design; these potential measurements are identied to minimize future estimation uncertainty. Using currently accepted Antarctic mass balance estimates and our SMB estimate, we estimate net mass loss [Shepherd et al. (2012); Jacob et al. (2012)]. Furthermore, we discuss modeling details for both space-time data and combining field measurement data with output from mathematical models using the NNGP framework.

  18. Part 2: Sedimentary geology of the Valles, Marineris, Mars and Antarctic dry valley lakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nedell, Susan S.

    1987-01-01

    Detailed mapping of the layered deposits in the Valles Marineris, Mars from high-resolution Viking orbiter images revealed that they from plateaus of rhythmically layered material whose bases are in the lowest elevations of the canyon floors, and whose tops are within a few hundred meters in elevation of the surrounding plateaus. Four hypotheses for the origin of the layered deposits were considered: that they are eolian deposits; that they are remnants of the same material as the canyon walls; that they are explosive volcanic deposits; or that they were deposited in standing bodies of water. There are serious morphologic objections to each of the first three. The deposition of the layered deposits in standing bodies of water best explains their lateral continuity, horizontality, great thickness, rhythmic nature, and stratigraphic relationships with other units within the canyons. The Martian climatic history indicated that any ancient lakes were ice covered. Two methods for transporting sediment through a cover of ice on a martian lake appear to be feasible. Based on the presently available data, along with the theoretical calculations presented, it appears most likely that the layered deposits in the Valles Marineris were laid down in standing bodies of water.

  19. Modelling the effects of environmental conditions on the acoustic occurrence and behaviour of Antarctic blue whales.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shabangu, Fannie W; Yemane, Dawit; Stafford, Kathleen M; Ensor, Paul; Findlay, Ken P

    2017-01-01

    Harvested to perilously low numbers by commercial whaling during the past century, the large scale response of Antarctic blue whales Balaenoptera musculus intermedia to environmental variability is poorly understood. This study uses acoustic data collected from 586 sonobuoys deployed in the austral summers of 1997 through 2009, south of 38°S, coupled with visual observations of blue whales during the IWC SOWER line-transect surveys. The characteristic Z-call and D-call of Antarctic blue whales were detected using an automated detection template and visual verification method. Using a random forest model, we showed the environmental preferences pattern, spatial occurrence and acoustic behaviour of Antarctic blue whales. Distance to the southern boundary of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (SBACC), latitude and distance from the nearest Antarctic shores were the main geographic predictors of blue whale call occurrence. Satellite-derived sea surface height, sea surface temperature, and productivity (chlorophyll-a) were the most important environmental predictors of blue whale call occurrence. Call rates of D-calls were strongly predicted by the location of the SBACC, latitude and visually detected number of whales in an area while call rates of Z-call were predicted by the SBACC, latitude and longitude. Satellite-derived sea surface height, wind stress, wind direction, water depth, sea surface temperatures, chlorophyll-a and wind speed were important environmental predictors of blue whale call rates in the Southern Ocean. Blue whale call occurrence and call rates varied significantly in response to inter-annual and long term variability of those environmental predictors. Our results identify the response of Antarctic blue whales to inter-annual variability in environmental conditions and highlighted potential suitable habitats for this population. Such emerging knowledge about the acoustic behaviour, environmental and habitat preferences of Antarctic blue whales is

  20. Modelling the effects of environmental conditions on the acoustic occurrence and behaviour of Antarctic blue whales.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fannie W Shabangu

    Full Text Available Harvested to perilously low numbers by commercial whaling during the past century, the large scale response of Antarctic blue whales Balaenoptera musculus intermedia to environmental variability is poorly understood. This study uses acoustic data collected from 586 sonobuoys deployed in the austral summers of 1997 through 2009, south of 38°S, coupled with visual observations of blue whales during the IWC SOWER line-transect surveys. The characteristic Z-call and D-call of Antarctic blue whales were detected using an automated detection template and visual verification method. Using a random forest model, we showed the environmental preferences pattern, spatial occurrence and acoustic behaviour of Antarctic blue whales. Distance to the southern boundary of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (SBACC, latitude and distance from the nearest Antarctic shores were the main geographic predictors of blue whale call occurrence. Satellite-derived sea surface height, sea surface temperature, and productivity (chlorophyll-a were the most important environmental predictors of blue whale call occurrence. Call rates of D-calls were strongly predicted by the location of the SBACC, latitude and visually detected number of whales in an area while call rates of Z-call were predicted by the SBACC, latitude and longitude. Satellite-derived sea surface height, wind stress, wind direction, water depth, sea surface temperatures, chlorophyll-a and wind speed were important environmental predictors of blue whale call rates in the Southern Ocean. Blue whale call occurrence and call rates varied significantly in response to inter-annual and long term variability of those environmental predictors. Our results identify the response of Antarctic blue whales to inter-annual variability in environmental conditions and highlighted potential suitable habitats for this population. Such emerging knowledge about the acoustic behaviour, environmental and habitat preferences of

  1. Improved climate model evaluation using a new, 750-year Antarctic-wide snow accumulation product

    Science.gov (United States)

    Medley, B.; Thomas, E. R.

    2017-12-01

    Snow that accumulates over the cold, dry grounded ice of Antarctica is an important component of its mass balance, mitigating the ice sheet's contribution to sea level. Secular trends in accumulation not only result trends in the mass balance of the Antarctic Ice Sheet, but also directly and indirectly impact surface height changes. Long-term and spatiotemporally complete records of snow accumulation are needed to understand part and present Antarctic-wide mass balance, to convert from altimetry derived volume change to mass change, and to evaluate the ability of climate models to reproduce the observed climate change. We need measurements in both time and space, yet they typically sample one dimension at the expense of the other. Here, we develop a spatially complete, annually resolved snow accumulation product for the Antarctic Ice Sheet over the past 750 years by combining a newly compiled database of ice core accumulation records with climate model output. We mainly focus on climate model evaluation. Because the product spans several centuries, we can evaluate model ability in representing the preindustrial as well as present day accumulation change. Significant long-term trends in snow accumulation are found over the Ross and Bellingshausen Sea sectors of West Antarctica, the Antarctic Peninsula, and several sectors in East Antarctica. These results suggest that change is more complex over the Antarctic Ice Sheet than a simple uniform change (i.e., more snowfall in a warming world), which highlights the importance of atmospheric circulation as a major driver of change. By evaluating several climate models' ability to reproduce the observed trends, we can deduce whether their projections are reasonable or potentially biased where the latter would result in a misrepresentation of the Antarctic contribution to sea level.

  2. Parameterising a generic model for the dynamic energy budget of Antarctic krill, Euphausia superba.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jager, T.; Ravagnan, E.

    2015-01-01

    Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) theory is a generic and comprehensive framework for understanding bioenergetics over the entire life cycle of an organism. Here, we apply a simplified model derived from this theory (DEBkiss) to Antarctic krill Euphausia superba. The model was parameterised using growth

  3. The Long-Standing Antarctic Mantle Plume Hypothesis and Modeling Ongoing Glacial Isostatic Adjustment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ivins, E. R.; Seroussi, H. L.; Wiens, D.; Larour, E. Y.

    2016-12-01

    Alkaline basalts of the Marie Byrd Land (MBL) have been interpreted as evidence of a mantle plume impinging on the lithosphere from below at about 85-80 Ma and again at 30-20 Ma. Because of the lack of structural and stratigraphic mapping due to ice sheet cover, and even a general lack of sufficient bottom topography, it is impossible to identify and classify the main characteristics of such a putative plume with respect to ones that are well-studied, such as the Yellowstone or Raton hotspots. Recent POLENET seismic mapping has identified possible plume structures that could extend across the upper mantle beneath the Ruppert Coast (RC) in southeast MBL, and possible plume beneath the Bentley Subglacial Trench (BST), some 1000 km to the southwest of RC, and on the opposite side of MBL. Mapping of subglacial lakes via altimetry allows reconstruction of basal conditions that are consistent with melt generation rates and patterns of basal water routing. We extensively model the hotspot heat flux caused by a plume buried beneath the crust of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) and employing set of 3-D thermomechanical Stokes flow simulations with the Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM). We discover that a mantle upwelling structure beneath the BST, upstream of Subglacial Lake Whillans (SLW) and Whillans Ice Stream is compatible when the peak plume-related geothermal heat flux, qGHF, approaches 200 mW/m^2, rather consistent with heat flux measurements at the WISSARD core site where heat flux probes penetrated into sediments of SLW. For a plume at RC the ISSM predictions do allow a plume, consistent with seismic mapping, but require the peak plume flux to be upper bound by qGHF ≤ 150 mW/m^2. New maps of the relatively slower upper mantle shear wave velocity beneath WAIS reveal that the slowest velocity corresponds to mantle below MLB. Using our new constraints on a 3-D plume interpretation of this slowness, we determine the perturbations to GIA modeling that are required to

  4. A new albedo parameterization for use in climate models over the Antarctic ice sheet

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kuipers Munneke, P.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/304831891; van den Broeke, M.R.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/073765643; Lenaerts, J.T.M.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/314850163; Flanner, M.G.; Gardner, A.S.; van de Berg, W.J.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/304831611

    2011-01-01

    A parameterization for broadband snow surface albedo, based on snow grain size evolution, cloud optical thickness, and solar zenith angle, is implemented into a regional climate model for Antarctica and validated against field observations of albedo for the period 1995–2004. Over the Antarctic

  5. Water-Balance Model to Simulate Historical Lake Levels for Lake Merced, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maley, M. P.; Onsoy, S.; Debroux, J.; Eagon, B.

    2009-12-01

    Lake Merced is a freshwater lake located in southwestern San Francisco, California. In the late 1980s and early 1990s, an extended, severe drought impacted the area that resulted in significant declines in Lake Merced lake levels that raised concerns about the long-term health of the lake. In response to these concerns, the Lake Merced Water Level Restoration Project was developed to evaluate an engineered solution to increase and maintain Lake Merced lake levels. The Lake Merced Lake-Level Model was developed to support the conceptual engineering design to restore lake levels. It is a spreadsheet-based water-balance model that performs monthly water-balance calculations based on the hydrological conceptual model. The model independently calculates each water-balance component based on available climate and hydrological data. The model objective was to develop a practical, rule-based approach for the water balance and to calibrate the model results to measured lake levels. The advantage of a rule-based approach is that once the rules are defined, they enhance the ability to then adapt the model for use in future-case simulations. The model was calibrated to historical lake levels over a 70-year period from 1939 to 2009. Calibrating the model over this long historical range tested the model over a variety of hydrological conditions including wet, normal and dry precipitation years, flood events, and periods of high and low lake levels. The historical lake level range was over 16 feet. The model calibration of historical to simulated lake levels had a residual mean of 0.02 feet and an absolute residual mean of 0.42 feet. More importantly, the model demonstrated the ability to simulate both long-term and short-term trends with a strong correlation of the magnitude for both annual and seasonal fluctuations in lake levels. The calibration results demonstrate an improved conceptual understanding of the key hydrological factors that control lake levels, reduce uncertainty

  6. Lake Michigan lake trout PCB model forecast post audit (oral presentation)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scenario forecasts for total PCBs in Lake Michigan (LM) lake trout were conducted using the linked LM2-Toxics and LM Food Chain models, supported by a suite of additional LM models. Efforts were conducted under the Lake Michigan Mass Balance Study and the post audit represents an...

  7. Pathways of basal meltwater from Antarctic ice shelves: A model study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kusahara, Kazuya; Hasumi, Hiroyasu

    2014-09-01

    We investigate spreading pathways of basal meltwater released from all Antarctic ice shelves using a circumpolar coupled ice shelf-sea ice-ocean model that reproduces major features of the Southern Ocean circulation, including the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC). Several independent virtual tracers are used to identify detailed pathways of basal meltwaters. The spreading pathways of the meltwater tracers depend on formation sites, because the meltwaters are transported by local ambient ocean circulation. Meltwaters from ice shelves in the Weddell and Amundsen-Bellingshausen Seas in surface/subsurface layers are effectively advected to lower latitudes with the ACC. Although a large portion of the basal meltwaters is present in surface and subsurface layers, a part of the basal meltwaters penetrates into the bottom layer through active dense water formation along the Antarctic coastal margins. The signals at the seafloor extend along the topography, showing a horizontal distribution similar to the observed spreading of Antarctic Bottom Water. Meltwaters originating from ice shelves in the Weddell and Ross Seas and in the Indian sector significantly contribute to the bottom signals. A series of numerical experiments in which thermodynamic interaction between the ice shelf and ocean is neglected regionally demonstrates that the basal meltwater of each ice shelf impacts sea ice and/or ocean thermohaline circulation in the Southern Ocean. This article was corrected on 10 OCT 2014. See the end of the full text for details.

  8. Modeling the carbon cycle in Lake Matano.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuntz, L B; Laakso, T A; Schrag, D P; Crowe, S A

    2015-09-01

    Lake Matano, Indonesia, is a stratified anoxic lake with iron-rich waters that has been used as an analogue for the Archean and early Proterozoic oceans. Past studies of Lake Matano report large amounts of methane production, with as much as 80% of primary production degraded via methanogenesis. Low δ(13)C values of DIC in the lake are difficult to reconcile with this notion, as fractionation during methanogenesis produces isotopically heavy CO2. To help reconcile these observations, we develop a box model of the carbon cycle in ferruginous Lake Matano, Indonesia, that satisfies the constraints of CH4 and DIC isotopic profiles, sediment composition, and alkalinity. We estimate methane fluxes smaller than originally proposed, with about 9% of organic carbon export to the deep waters degraded via methanogenesis. In addition, despite the abundance of Fe within the waters, anoxic ferric iron respiration of organic matter degrades carbon export, leaving methanogenesis as the largest contributor to anaerobic organic matter remineralization, while indicating a relatively minor role for iron as an electron acceptor. As the majority of carbon exported is buried in the sediments, we suggest that the role of methane in the Archean and early Proterozoic oceans is less significant than presumed in other studies. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  9. Ecosystem element transport model for Lake Eckarfjaerden

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Konovalenko, L.; Bradshaw, C. [The Department of Ecology, Environment and Plant Sciences, Stockholm University (Sweden); Andersson, E.; Kautsky, U. [Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co. - SKB (Sweden)

    2014-07-01

    The ecosystem transport model of elements was developed for Lake Eckarfjaerden located in the Forsmark area in Sweden. Forsmark has currently a low level repository (SFR) and a repository for spent fuel is planned. A large number of data collected during site-investigation program 2002-2009 for planning the repository were available for the creation of the compartment model based on carbon circulation, physical and biological processes (e.g. primary production, consumption, respiration). The model is site-specific in the sense that the food web model is adapted to the actual food web at the site, and most estimates of biomass and metabolic rates for the organisms and meteorological data originate from site data. The functional organism groups of Lake Eckarfjaerden were considered as separate compartments: bacterio-plankton, benthic bacteria, macro-algae, phytoplankton, zooplankton, fish, benthic fauna. Two functional groups of bacteria were taken into account for the reason that they have the highest biomass of all functional groups during the winter, comprising 36% of the total biomass. Effects of ecological parameters, such as bacteria and algae biomass, on redistribution of a hypothetical radionuclide release in the lake were examined. The ecosystem model was used to estimate the environmental transfer of several elements (U, Th, Ra) and their isotopes (U-238, U-234,Th-232, Ra-226) to various aquatic organisms in the lake, using element-specific distribution coefficients for suspended particle and sediment. Results of chemical analyses of the water, sediment and biota were used for model validation. The model gives estimates of concentration factors for fish based on modelling rather on in situ measurement, which reduces the uncertainties for many radionuclides with scarce of data. Document available in abstract form only. (authors)

  10. An Antarctic research outpost as a model for planetary exploration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andersen, D T; McKay, C P; Wharton, R A; Rummel, J D

    1990-01-01

    During the next 50 years, human civilization may well begin expanding into the solar system. This colonization of extraterrestrial bodies will most likely begin with the establishment of small research outposts on the Moon and/or Mars. In all probability these facilities, designed primarily for conducting exploration and basic science, will have international participation in their crews, logistical support and funding. High fidelity Earth-based simulations of planetary exploration could help prepare for these expensive and complex operations. Antarctica provides one possible venue for such a simulation. The hostile and remote dry valleys of southern Victoria Land offer a valid analog to the Martian environment but are sufficiently accessible to allow routine logistical support and to assure the relative safety of their inhabitants. An Antarctic research outpost designed as a planetary exploration simulation facility would have great potential as a testbed and training site for the operation of future Mars bases and represents a near-term, relatively low-cost alternative to other precursor activities. Antarctica already enjoys an international dimension, an aspect that is more than symbolically appropriate to an international endeavor of unprecedented scientific and social significance--planetary exploration by humans. Potential uses of such a facility include: 1) studying human factors in an isolated environment (including long-term interactions among an international crew); 2) testing emerging technologies (e.g., advanced life support facilities such as a partial bioregenerative life support system, advanced analytical and sample acquisition instrumentation and equipment, etc.); and 3) conducting basic scientific research similar to the research that will be conducted on Mars, while contributing to the planning for human exploration. (Research of this type is already ongoing in Antarctica).

  11. Microbially mediated redox transformations of manganese (II) along with some other trace elements: a study from Antarctic lakes

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Krishnan, K.P.; Sinha, R.K.; Krishna, K.; Nair, S.; Singh, S.M.

    a study that was conducted in the brackish water lakes in the Larsemann Hills region (east Antarctica) is presented. The rate of in situ manganese oxidation ranged from 0.04 to 3.96 ppb day sup(-1). These lakes harbor numerous manganese...

  12. CO2-Induced Ocean Warming of the Antarctic Continental Shelf in an Eddying Global Climate Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goddard, Paul B.; Dufour, Carolina O.; Yin, Jianjun; Griffies, Stephen M.; Winton, Michael

    2017-10-01

    Ocean warming near the Antarctic ice shelves has critical implications for future ice sheet mass loss and global sea level rise. A global climate model with an eddying ocean is used to quantify the mechanisms contributing to ocean warming on the Antarctic continental shelf in an idealized 2xCO2 experiment. The results indicate that relatively large warm anomalies occur both in the upper 100 m and at depths above the shelf floor, which are controlled by different mechanisms. The near-surface ocean warming is primarily a response to enhanced onshore advective heat transport across the shelf break. The deep shelf warming is initiated by onshore intrusions of relatively warm Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW), in density classes that access the shelf, as well as the reduction of the vertical mixing of heat. CO2-induced shelf freshening influences both warming mechanisms. The shelf freshening slows vertical mixing by limiting gravitational instabilities and the upward diffusion of heat associated with CDW, resulting in the buildup of heat at depth. Meanwhile, freshening near the shelf break enhances the lateral density gradient of the Antarctic Slope Front (ASF) and disconnect isopycnals between the shelf and CDW, making cross-ASF heat exchange more difficult. However, at several locations along the ASF, the cross-ASF heat transport is less inhibited and heat can move onshore. Once onshore, lateral and vertical heat advection work to disperse the heat anomalies across the shelf region. Understanding the inhomogeneous Antarctic shelf warming will lead to better projections of future ice sheet mass loss.

  13. Integrating three lake models into a Phytoplankton Prediction System for Lake Taihu (Taihu PPS) with Python

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Huang, J.; Gao, J.; Hörmann, G.; Mooij, W.M.

    2012-01-01

    In the past decade, much work has been done on integrating different lake models using general frameworks to overcome model incompatibilities. However, a framework may not be flexible enough to support applications in different fields. To overcome this problem, we used Python to integrate three lake

  14. An improved active contour model for glacial lake extraction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, H.; Chen, F.; Zhang, M.

    2017-12-01

    Active contour model is a widely used method in visual tracking and image segmentation. Under the driven of objective function, the initial curve defined in active contour model will evolve to a stable condition - a desired result in given image. As a typical region-based active contour model, C-V model has a good effect on weak boundaries detection and anti noise ability which shows great potential in glacial lake extraction. Glacial lake is a sensitive indicator for reflecting global climate change, therefore accurate delineate glacial lake boundaries is essential to evaluate hydrologic environment and living environment. However, the current method in glacial lake extraction mainly contains water index method and recognition classification method are diffcult to directly applied in large scale glacial lake extraction due to the diversity of glacial lakes and masses impacted factors in the image, such as image noise, shadows, snow and ice, etc. Regarding the abovementioned advantanges of C-V model and diffcults in glacial lake extraction, we introduce the signed pressure force function to improve the C-V model for adapting to processing of glacial lake extraction. To inspect the effect of glacial lake extraction results, three typical glacial lake development sites were selected, include Altai mountains, Centre Himalayas, South-eastern Tibet, and Landsat8 OLI imagery was conducted as experiment data source, Google earth imagery as reference data for varifying the results. The experiment consequence suggests that improved active contour model we proposed can effectively discriminate the glacial lakes from complex backgound with a higher Kappa Coefficient - 0.895, especially in some small glacial lakes which belongs to weak information in the image. Our finding provide a new approach to improved accuracy under the condition of large proportion of small glacial lakes and the possibility for automated glacial lake mapping in large-scale area.

  15. Modeling and management of pit lake water chemistry 1: Theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Castendyk, D.N.; Eary, L.E.; Balistrieri, L.S.

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • Review of pit lake literature in the context of pit lake predictions. • Review of approaches used to predict pit wall-rock runoff and leachate. • Review of approaches used to generate a pit lake water balance. • Review of approaches used to generate a hydrodynamic prediction. • Review of approaches used to generate a geochemical prediction of a future pit lake. - Abstract: Pit lakes are permanent hydrologic/landscape features that can result from open pit mining for metals, coal, uranium, diamonds, oil sands, and aggregates. Risks associated with pit lakes include local and regional impacts to water quality and related impacts to aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems. Stakeholders rely on predictive models of water chemistry to prepare for and manage these risks. This paper is the first of a two part series on the modeling and management of pit lakes. Herein, we review approaches that have been used to quantify wall-rock runoff geochemistry, wall-rock leachate geochemistry, pit lake water balance, pit lake limnology (i.e. extent of vertical mixing), and pit lake water quality, and conclude with guidance on the application of models within the mine life cycle. The purpose of this paper is to better prepare stakeholders, including future modelers, mine managers, consultants, permitting agencies, land management agencies, regulators, research scientists, academics, and other interested parties, for the challenges of predicting and managing future pit lakes in un-mined areas

  16. Model calculations of the age of firn air across the Antarctic continent

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. A. Kaspers

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available The age of firn air in Antarctica at pore close-off depth is only known for a few specific sites where firn air has been sampled for analyses. We present a model that calculates the age of firn air at pore close-off depth for the entire Antarctic continent. The model basically uses four meteorological parameters as input (surface temperature, pressure, accumulation rate and wind speed. Using parameterisations for surface snow density, pore close-off density and tortuosity, in combination with a density-depth model and data of a regional atmospheric climate model, distribution of pore close-off depth for the entire Antarctic continent is determined. The deepest pore close-off depth was found for the East Antarctic Plateau near 72° E, 82° S, at 150±15 m (2σ. A firn air diffusion model was applied to calculate the age of CO2 at pore close-off depth. The results predict that the oldest firn gas (CO2 age is located between Dome Fuji, Dome Argos and Vostok at 43° E, 78° S being 148±23 (1σ or 38 for 2σ years old. At this location an atmospheric trace gas record should be obtained. In this study we show that methyl chloride could be recorded with a predicted length of 125 years as an example for trace gas records at this location. The longest record currently available from firn air is derived at South Pole, being 80 years. Sensitivity tests reveal that the locations with old firn air (East Antarctic Plateau have an estimated uncertainty (2σ for the modelled CO2 age at pore close-off depth of 30% and of about 40% for locations with younger firn air (CO2 age typically 40 years. Comparing the modelled age of CO2 at pore close-off depth with directly determined ages at seven sites yielded a correlation coefficient of 0.90 and a slope close to 1, suggesting a high level of confidence for the modelled results in spite of considerable remaining uncertainties.

  17. Model intercomparison of sea-level response to sudden Antarctic ice-shelf collapse

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pattyn, Frank; Sun, Sainan; Golledge, Nicholas

    2017-04-01

    The magnitude of the Antarctic ice sheet's contribution to global sea level is dominated by the potential of its marine sectors to become unstable and collapse to ocean (and atmospheric) forcing. Ice shelf buttressing is a key element in the stability of the Antarctic ice sheet. Therefore, a useful model experiment to test this stability is the sudden removal of all floating ice shelves. It serves several purposes: (i) investigating an upper bound of Antarctic mass loss, and (ii) testing numerical ice sheet models on their sensitivity to grounding line migration and marine ice sheet instability (MISI). Two types of de-buttressing are investigated, i.e., (i) sudden removal followed by ice-shelf regrowth due to increased ice discharge across the grounding line, and (ii) without ice shelf regrowth after de-buttressing (so-called float-kill). Experiments are carried out with two state-of-the-art marine ice sheet models (f.ETISh and PISM) and different settings of grounding-line treatment. For the f.ETISh model these settings pertain to grounding-line flux conditions according to power-law basal sliding and Coulomb friction; for PISM this includes different settings on transition zone width and grounding-line interpolation. Results of the experiments show that regrowth of ice shelves after sudden de-buttressing stabilizes grounding lines and reduces the effect of MISI. Float-kill conditions lead to significant mass loss, which is further exacerbated by the type of grounding-line treatment, i.e., Coulomb friction renders grounding lines more sensitive (Tsai et al., 2015). However, compared to recent model studies where effects of hydro-fracturing and cliff-failure are considered (DeConto and Pollard, 2016), similar amounts of ice loss are only obtained when the highest grounding-line sensitivity is considered.

  18. Estimation of lake water - groundwater interactions in meromictic mining lakes by modelling isotope signatures of lake water.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seebach, Anne; Dietz, Severine; Lessmann, Dieter; Knoeller, Kay

    2008-03-01

    A method is presented to assess lake water-groundwater interactions by modelling isotope signatures of lake water using meteorological parameters and field data. The modelling of delta(18)O and deltaD variations offers information about the groundwater influx into a meromictic Lusatian mining lake. Therefore, a water balance model is combined with an isotope water balance model to estimate analogies between simulated and measured isotope signatures within the lake water body. The model is operated with different evaporation rates to predict delta(18)O and deltaD values in a lake that is only controlled by weather conditions with neither groundwater inflow nor outflow. Comparisons between modelled and measured isotope values show whether the lake is fed by the groundwater or not. Furthermore, our investigations show that an adaptation of the Craig and Gordon model [H. Craig, L.I. Gordon. Deuterium and oxygen-18 variations in the ocean and the marine atmosphere. In Stable Isotopes in Oceanographic Studies and Paleotemperature, Spoleto, E. Tongiorgi (Ed.), pp. 9-130, Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, Laboratorio di Geologia Nucleare, Pisa (1965).] to specific conditions in temperate regions seems necessary.

  19. Geochemical monitoring of volcanic lakes. A generalized box model for active crater lakes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Franco Tassi

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available

    In the past, variations in the chemical contents (SO42−, Cl−, cations of crater lake water have not systematically demonstrated any relationships with eruptive activity. Intensive parameters (i.e., concentrations, temperature, pH, salinity should be converted into extensive parameters (i.e., fluxes, changes with time of mass and solutes, taking into account all the internal and external chemical–physical factors that affect the crater lake system. This study presents a generalized box model approach that can be useful for geochemical monitoring of active crater lakes, as highly dynamic natural systems. The mass budget of a lake is based on observations of physical variations over a certain period of time: lake volume (level, surface area, lake water temperature, meteorological precipitation, air humidity, wind velocity, input of spring water, and overflow of the lake. This first approach leads to quantification of the input and output fluxes that contribute to the actual crater lake volume. Estimating the input flux of the "volcanic" fluid (Qf- kg/s –– an unmeasurable subsurface parameter –– and tracing its variations with time is the major focus during crater lake monitoring. Through expanding the mass budget into an isotope and chemical budget of the lake, the box model helps to qualitatively characterize the fluids involved. The (calculated Cl− content and dD ratio of the rising "volcanic" fluid defines its origin. With reference to continuous monitoring of crater lakes, the present study provides tips that allow better calculation of Qf in the future. At present, this study offers the most comprehensive and up-to-date literature review on active crater lakes.

  20. Antarctic 5-km Digital Elevation Model from ERS-1 Altimetry

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This data set provides a digital elevation model (DEM) for Antarctica to 81.5 degrees south latitude, at a resolution of 5 km. Approximately twenty million data...

  1. An assessment of historical Antarctic precipitation and temperature trend using CMIP5 models and reanalysis datasets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Malcolm S. Y.; Chenoli, Sheeba Nettukandy; Samah, Azizan Abu; Hai, Ooi See

    2018-03-01

    The study of Antarctic precipitation has attracted a lot of attention recently. The reliability of climate models in simulating Antarctic precipitation, however, is still debatable. This work assess the precipitation and surface air temperature (SAT) of Antarctica (90 oS to 60 oS) using 49 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) global climate models and the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts "Interim" reanalysis (ERA-Interim); the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR); the Japan Meteorological Agency 55-year Reanalysis (JRA-55); and the Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) datasets for 1979-2005 (27 years). For precipitation, the time series show that the MERRA and JRA-55 have significantly increased from 1979 to 2005, while the ERA-Int and CFSR have insignificant changes. The reanalyses also have low correlation with one another (generally less than +0.69). 37 CMIP5 models show increasing trend, 18 of which are significant. The resulting CMIP5 MMM also has a significant increasing trend of 0.29 ± 0.06 mm year-1. For SAT, the reanalyses show insignificant changes and have high correlation with one another, while the CMIP5 MMM shows a significant increasing trend. Nonetheless, the variability of precipitation and SAT of MMM could affect the significance of its trend. One of the many reasons for the large differences of precipitation is the CMIP5 models' resolution.

  2. Dense shelf water spreading from Antarctic coastal polynyas to the deep Southern Ocean: A regional circumpolar model study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kusahara, Kazuya; Williams, Guy D.; Tamura, Takeshi; Massom, Robert; Hasumi, Hiroyasu

    2017-08-01

    The spreading of dense shelf water (DSW) from Antarctic coastal margins to lower latitudes plays a vital role in the ocean thermohaline circulation and the global climate system. Through enhanced localized sea ice production in Antarctic coastal polynyas, cold and saline DSW is formed over the continental shelf regions as a precursor to Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW). However, the detailed fate of coastal DSW over the Southern Ocean is still unclear. Here we conduct extensive passive tracer experiments using a circumpolar ocean-sea ice-ice shelf model to investigate pathways of the regional polynya-based DSW from the Antarctic margins to the deep Southern Ocean basins. In the numerical experiments, the Antarctic coastal margin is divided into nine regions, and a passive tracer is released from each region at the same rate as the local sea ice production. The modeled spatial distribution of the total concentration of the nine tracers is consistent with the observed AABW distribution and clearly demonstrates nine routes of the DSW over the Southern Ocean along its bottom topography. Furthermore, the model shows that while ˜50% of the total tracer is distributed northward from the continental shelf to the deep ocean, ˜7% is transported poleward beneath ice shelf cavities. The comprehensive tracer experiments allow us to estimate the contribution of local DSW to the total concentration along each of the pathways.

  3. [Lake eutrophication modeling in considering climatic factors change: a review].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Su, Jie-Qiong; Wang, Xuan; Yang, Zhi-Feng

    2012-11-01

    Climatic factors are considered as the key factors affecting the trophic status and its process in most lakes. Under the background of global climate change, to incorporate the variations of climatic factors into lake eutrophication models could provide solid technical support for the analysis of the trophic evolution trend of lake and the decision-making of lake environment management. This paper analyzed the effects of climatic factors such as air temperature, precipitation, sunlight, and atmosphere on lake eutrophication, and summarized the research results about the lake eutrophication modeling in considering in considering climatic factors change, including the modeling based on statistical analysis, ecological dynamic analysis, system analysis, and intelligent algorithm. The prospective approaches to improve the accuracy of lake eutrophication modeling with the consideration of climatic factors change were put forward, including 1) to strengthen the analysis of the mechanisms related to the effects of climatic factors change on lake trophic status, 2) to identify the appropriate simulation models to generate several scenarios under proper temporal and spatial scales and resolutions, and 3) to integrate the climatic factors change simulation, hydrodynamic model, ecological simulation, and intelligent algorithm into a general modeling system to achieve an accurate prediction of lake eutrophication under climatic change.

  4. Validation of a limited area model over Dome C, Antarctic Plateau, during winter

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gallee, Hubert; Gorodetskaya, Irina V. [Laboratoire de Glaciologie et de Geophysique de l' Environnement, CNRS, 54, rue Moliere, BP. 96, St Martin d' Heres Cedex (France)

    2010-01-15

    The limited area model MAR (Modele Atmospherique Regional) is validated over the Antarctic Plateau for the period 2004-2006, focussing on Dome C during the cold season. MAR simulations are made by initializing the model once and by forcing it through its lateral and top boundaries by the ECMWF operational analyses. Model outputs compare favourably with observations from automatic weather station (AWS), radiometers and atmospheric soundings. MAR is able to simulate the succession of cold and warm events which occur at Dome C during winter. Larger longwave downwelling fluxes (LWD) are responsible for higher surface air temperatures and weaker surface inversions during winter. Warm events are better simulated when the small Antarctic precipitating snow particles are taken into account in radiative transfer computations. MAR stratosphere cools during the cold season, with the coldest temperatures occurring in conjunction with warm events at the surface. The decrease of saturation specific humidity associated with these coldest temperatures is responsible for the formation of polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) especially in August-September. PSCs then contribute to the surface warming by increasing the surface downwelling longwave flux. (orig.)

  5. Resolving the Antarctic contribution to sea-level rise: a hierarchical modelling framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zammit-Mangion, Andrew; Rougier, Jonathan; Bamber, Jonathan; Schön, Nana

    2014-06-01

    Determining the Antarctic contribution to sea-level rise from observational data is a complex problem. The number of physical processes involved (such as ice dynamics and surface climate) exceeds the number of observables, some of which have very poor spatial definition. This has led, in general, to solutions that utilise strong prior assumptions or physically based deterministic models to simplify the problem. Here, we present a new approach for estimating the Antarctic contribution, which only incorporates descriptive aspects of the physically based models in the analysis and in a statistical manner. By combining physical insights with modern spatial statistical modelling techniques, we are able to provide probability distributions on all processes deemed to play a role in both the observed data and the contribution to sea-level rise. Specifically, we use stochastic partial differential equations and their relation to geostatistical fields to capture our physical understanding and employ a Gaussian Markov random field approach for efficient computation. The method, an instantiation of Bayesian hierarchical modelling, naturally incorporates uncertainty in order to reveal credible intervals on all estimated quantities. The estimated sea-level rise contribution using this approach corroborates those found using a statistically independent method. © 2013 The Authors. Environmetrics Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  6. Modelling snowdrift sublimation on an Antarctic ice shelf

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. T. M. Lenaerts

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we estimate the contribution of snowdrift sublimation (SUds to the surface mass balance at Neumayer, located on the Ekström ice shelf in Eastern Antarctica. A single column version of the RACMO2-ANT model is used as a physical interpolation tool of high-quality radiosonde and surface measurements for a 15-yr period (1993–2007, and combined with a routine to calculate snowdrift sublimation and horizontal snow transport. The site is characterised by a relatively mild, wet and windy climate, so snowdrift is a common phenomenon. The modelled timing and frequency of snowdrift events compares well with observations. This is further illustrated by an additional simulation for Kohnen base, where the timing of snowdrift is realistic, although the modelled horizontal transport is overestimated. Snowdrift sublimation is mainly dependent on wind speed, but also on relative humidity and temperature. During high wind speeds, SUds saturates and cools the air, limiting its own strength. We estimate that SUds removes around 16%±8% of the accumulated snow from the surface. The total sublimation more than triples when snowdrift is considered, although snowdrift sublimation limits sublimation at the surface. SUds shows a strong seasonal cycle, as well as large inter-annual variability. This variability can be related to the variability of the atmospheric conditions in the surface layer.

  7. Evidence for link between modelled trends in Antarctic sea ice and underestimated westerly wind changes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Purich, Ariaan; Cai, Wenju; England, Matthew H; Cowan, Tim

    2016-02-04

    Despite global warming, total Antarctic sea ice coverage increased over 1979-2013. However, the majority of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 models simulate a decline. Mechanisms causing this discrepancy have so far remained elusive. Here we show that weaker trends in the intensification of the Southern Hemisphere westerly wind jet simulated by the models may contribute to this disparity. During austral summer, a strengthened jet leads to increased upwelling of cooler subsurface water and strengthened equatorward transport, conducive to increased sea ice. As the majority of models underestimate summer jet trends, this cooling process is underestimated compared with observations and is insufficient to offset warming in the models. Through the sea ice-albedo feedback, models produce a high-latitude surface ocean warming and sea ice decline, contrasting the observed net cooling and sea ice increase. A realistic simulation of observed wind changes may be crucial for reproducing the recent observed sea ice increase.

  8. Modeling of subglacial hydrological development following rapid supraglacial lake drainage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dow, C F; Kulessa, B; Rutt, I C; Tsai, V C; Pimentel, S; Doyle, S H; van As, D; Lindbäck, K; Pettersson, R; Jones, G A; Hubbard, A

    2015-01-01

    The rapid drainage of supraglacial lakes injects substantial volumes of water to the bed of the Greenland ice sheet over short timescales. The effect of these water pulses on the development of basal hydrological systems is largely unknown. To address this, we develop a lake drainage model incorporating both (1) a subglacial radial flux element driven by elastic hydraulic jacking and (2) downstream drainage through a linked channelized and distributed system. Here we present the model and examine whether substantial, efficient subglacial channels can form during or following lake drainage events and their effect on the water pressure in the surrounding distributed system. We force the model with field data from a lake drainage site, 70 km from the terminus of Russell Glacier in West Greenland. The model outputs suggest that efficient subglacial channels do not readily form in the vicinity of the lake during rapid drainage and instead water is evacuated primarily by a transient turbulent sheet and the distributed system. Following lake drainage, channels grow but are not large enough to reduce the water pressure in the surrounding distributed system, unless preexisting channels are present throughout the domain. Our results have implications for the analysis of subglacial hydrological systems in regions where rapid lake drainage provides the primary mechanism for surface-to-bed connections. Key Points Model for subglacial hydrological analysis of rapid lake drainage events Limited subglacial channel growth during and following rapid lake drainage Persistence of distributed drainage in inland areas where channel growth is limited PMID:26640746

  9. Modeling of subglacial hydrological development following rapid supraglacial lake drainage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dow, C F; Kulessa, B; Rutt, I C; Tsai, V C; Pimentel, S; Doyle, S H; van As, D; Lindbäck, K; Pettersson, R; Jones, G A; Hubbard, A

    2015-06-01

    The rapid drainage of supraglacial lakes injects substantial volumes of water to the bed of the Greenland ice sheet over short timescales. The effect of these water pulses on the development of basal hydrological systems is largely unknown. To address this, we develop a lake drainage model incorporating both (1) a subglacial radial flux element driven by elastic hydraulic jacking and (2) downstream drainage through a linked channelized and distributed system. Here we present the model and examine whether substantial, efficient subglacial channels can form during or following lake drainage events and their effect on the water pressure in the surrounding distributed system. We force the model with field data from a lake drainage site, 70 km from the terminus of Russell Glacier in West Greenland. The model outputs suggest that efficient subglacial channels do not readily form in the vicinity of the lake during rapid drainage and instead water is evacuated primarily by a transient turbulent sheet and the distributed system. Following lake drainage, channels grow but are not large enough to reduce the water pressure in the surrounding distributed system, unless preexisting channels are present throughout the domain. Our results have implications for the analysis of subglacial hydrological systems in regions where rapid lake drainage provides the primary mechanism for surface-to-bed connections. Model for subglacial hydrological analysis of rapid lake drainage eventsLimited subglacial channel growth during and following rapid lake drainagePersistence of distributed drainage in inland areas where channel growth is limited.

  10. Models for the Filling of Crater Lake, Oregon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nathenson, M.; Bacon, C. R.; Gardner, J. V.

    2001-12-01

    Crater Lake partially fills, to a depth of 593 m, the 10-km-diameter, 1200-m-deep caldera formed by collapse of Mount Mazama volcano. The lake receives water from direct precipitation and inflow from the caldera walls and loses water by surface evaporation and leakage. No streams flow from Crater Lake. A high-resolution multibeam echo sounding survey of the lake floor conducted in 2000 (Gardner et al., 2001) revealed seven drowned beaches between 1849 and 1878 m elevation (reference lake elevation is 1883 m). The beaches are thought to reflect drier periods in the lake's history since the climactic, caldera-forming eruption of Mount Mazama, approximately 7,700 years ago. The shallowest drowned beach at 1878 m represents the deepest part of a wave-cut platform up to 100 m wide, substantially wider than any of the beaches, where erodible talus or intensely altered rocks are present. The great width of the platform compared to the width of the drowned beaches indicates that the lake has mostly been near its current level during the lake's history. Unambiguous evidence of former highstands above 1883 m has not been reported. In order to explain the occurrence of the drowned beaches and their relatively narrow depth range, leakage through the caldera walls must vary with depth and cannot occur just at the lake bottom or at the modern lake level. A reasonable model is that leakage is proportional to elevation above the bottom of the lake. Recognition that there is a thick layer of relatively permeable debris resting on glaciated lava in the northeast caldera wall above an elevation of 1845 m suggests a variant of this model where leakage is proportional to elevation above 1845 m. Climate studies indicate that Crater Lake began to fill during a dry period. Assuming that precipitation at that time was 70% of modern and that the beach at 1853 m (the deeper beach is somewhat suspect) corresponds to this amount of precipitation, a combination of the above leakage models is

  11. Modelling catchment hydrological responses in a Himalayan Lake ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    cesses in Dal lake catchment of Kashmir Himalayas by integrating remote sensing, simulation modelling ... have significantly altered the land system, impairing, inter-alia, sustained biotic communities and water quality of the lake. The primary objective of this paper was ..... zone is modelled as linear ground water reservoir.

  12. Modeling lakes and reservoirs in the climate system

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    MacKay, M.D.; Neale, P.J.; Arp, C.D.; De Senerpont Domis, L.N.; Fang, X.; Gal, G.; Jöhnk, K.D.; Kirillin, G.; Lenters, J.D.; Litchman, E.; MacIntyre, S.; Marsh, P.; Melack, J.; Mooij, W.M.; Peeters, F.; Quesada, A.; Schladow, S.G.; Schmid, M.; Spence, C.; Stokes, S.L.

    2009-01-01

    Modeling studies examining the effect of lakes on regional and global climate, as well as studies on the influence of climate variability and change on aquatic ecosystems, are surveyed. Fully coupled atmosphere–land surface–lake climate models that could be used for both of these types of study

  13. Hydrodynamic modelling of small upland lakes under strong wind forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morales, L.; French, J.; Burningham, H.

    2012-04-01

    Small lakes (Area important source of water supply. Lakes also provide an important sedimentary archive of environmental and climate changes and ecosystem function. Hydrodynamic controls on the transport and distribution of lake sediments, and also seasonal variations in thermal structure due to solar radiation, precipitation, evaporation and mixing and the complex vertical and horizontal circulation patterns induced by the action of wind are not very well understood. The work presented here analyses hydrodynamic motions present in small upland lakes due to circulation and internal scale waves, and their linkages with the distribution of bottom sediment accumulation in the lake. For purpose, a 3D hydrodynamic is calibrated and implemented for Llyn Conwy, a small oligotrophic upland lake in North Wales, UK. The model, based around the FVCOM open source community model code, resolves the Navier-Stokes equations using a 3D unstructured mesh and a finite volume scheme. The model is forced by meteorological boundary conditions. Improvements made to the FVCOM code include a new graphical user interface to pre- and post process the model input and results respectively, and a JONSWAT wave model to include the effects of wind-wave induced bottom stresses on lake sediment dynamics. Modelled internal scale waves are validated against summer temperature measurements acquired from a thermistor chain deployed at the deepest part of the lake. Seiche motions were validated using data recorded by high-frequency level sensors around the lake margins, and the velocity field and the circulation patterns were validated using the data recorded by an ADCP and GPS drifters. The model is shown to reproduce the lake hydrodynamics and reveals well-developed seiches at different frequencies superimposed on wind-driven circulation patterns that appear to control the distribution of bottom sediments in this small upland lake.

  14. The microphysics of clouds over the Antarctic Peninsula - Part 2: modelling aspects within Polar WRF

    Science.gov (United States)

    Listowski, Constantino; Lachlan-Cope, Tom

    2017-08-01

    The first intercomparisons of cloud microphysics schemes implemented in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale atmospheric model (version 3.5.1) are performed on the Antarctic Peninsula using the polar version of WRF (Polar WRF) at 5 km resolution, along with comparisons to the British Antarctic Survey's aircraft measurements (presented in part 1 of this work; Lachlan-Cope et al., 2016). This study follows previous works suggesting the misrepresentation of the cloud thermodynamic phase in order to explain large radiative biases derived at the surface in Polar WRF continent-wide (at 15 km or coarser horizontal resolution) and in the Polar WRF-based operational forecast model Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS) over the Larsen C Ice Shelf at 5 km horizontal resolution. Five cloud microphysics schemes are investigated: the WRF single-moment five-class scheme (WSM5), the WRF double-moment six-class scheme (WDM6), the Morrison double-moment scheme, the Thompson scheme, and the Milbrandt-Yau double-moment seven-class scheme. WSM5 (used in AMPS) and WDM6 (an upgrade version of WSM5) lead to the largest biases in observed supercooled liquid phase and surface radiative biases. The schemes simulating clouds in closest agreement to the observations are the Morrison, Thompson, and Milbrandt schemes for their better average prediction of occurrences of clouds and cloud phase. Interestingly, those three schemes are also the ones allowing for significant reduction of the longwave surface radiative bias over the Larsen C Ice Shelf (eastern side of the peninsula). This is important for surface energy budget consideration with Polar WRF since the cloud radiative effect is more pronounced in the infrared over icy surfaces. Overall, the Morrison scheme compares better to the cloud observation and radiation measurements. The fact that WSM5 and WDM6 are single-moment parameterizations for the ice crystals is responsible for their lesser ability to model the

  15. Timescales of Growth Response of Microbial Mats to Environmental Change in an Ice-Covered Antarctic Lake

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anne D. Jungblut

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Lake Vanda is a perennially ice-covered, closed-basin lake in the McMurdo Dry Valleys, Antarctica. Laminated photosynthetic microbial mats cover the floor of the lake from below the ice cover to >40 m depth. In recent decades, the water level of Lake Vanda has been rising, creating a “natural experiment” on development of mat communities on newly flooded substrates and the response of deeper mats to declining irradiance. Mats in recently flooded depths accumulate one lamina (~0.3 mm per year and accrue ~0.18 µg chlorophyll-a cm−2 y−1. As they increase in thickness, vertical zonation becomes evident, with the upper 2-4 laminae forming an orange-brown zone, rich in myxoxanthophyll and dominated by intertwined Leptolyngbya trichomes. Below this, up to six phycobilin-rich green/pink-pigmented laminae form a subsurface zone, inhabited by Leptolyngbya, Oscillatoria and Phormidium morphotypes. Laminae continued to increase in thickness for several years after burial, and PAM fluorometry indicated photosynthetic potential in all pigmented laminae. At depths that have been submerged for >40 years, mats showed similar internal zonation and formed complex pinnacle structures that were only beginning to appear in shallower mats. Chlorophyll-a did not change over time and these mats appear to represent resource-limited “climax” communities. Acclimation of microbial mats to changing environmental conditions is a slow process, and our data show how legacy effects of past change persist into the modern community structure.

  16. Determining lake surface water temperatures worldwide using a tuned one-dimensional lake model (FLake, v1)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Layden, Aisling; MacCallum, Stuart N.; Merchant, Christopher J.

    2016-06-01

    A tuning method for FLake, a one-dimensional (1-D) freshwater lake model, is applied for the individual tuning of 244 globally distributed large lakes using observed lake surface water temperatures (LSWTs) derived from along-track scanning radiometers (ATSRs). The model, which was tuned using only three lake properties (lake depth, snow and ice albedo and light extinction coefficient), substantially improves the measured mean differences in various features of the LSWT annual cycle, including the LSWTs of saline and high altitude lakes, when compared to the observed LSWTs. Lakes whose lake-mean LSWT persists below 1 °C for part of the annual cycle are considered to be seasonally ice-covered. For trial seasonally ice-covered lakes (21 lakes), the daily mean and standard deviation (2σ) of absolute differences between the modelled and observed LSWTs are reduced from 3.07 °C ± 2.25 °C to 0.84 °C ± 0.51 °C by tuning the model. For all other trial lakes (14 non-ice-covered lakes), the improvement is from 3.55 °C ± 3.20 °C to 0.96 °C ± 0.63 °C. The post tuning results for the 35 trial lakes (21 seasonally ice-covered lakes and 14 non-ice-covered lakes) are highly representative of the post-tuning results of the 244 lakes. For the 21 seasonally ice-covered lakes, the modelled response of the summer LSWTs to changes in snow and ice albedo is found to be statistically related to lake depth and latitude, which together explain 0.50 (R2adj, p = 0.001) of the inter-lake variance in summer LSWTs. Lake depth alone explains 0.35 (p = 0.003) of the variance. Lake characteristic information (snow and ice albedo and light extinction coefficient) is not available for many lakes. The approach taken to tune the model, bypasses the need to acquire detailed lake characteristic values. Furthermore, the tuned values for lake depth, snow and ice albedo and light extinction coefficient for the 244 lakes provide some guidance on improving FLake LSWT modelling.

  17. A model study of the effect of climate and sea-level change on the evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet from the Last Glacial Maximum to 2100

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Maris, M. N. A.; Van Wessem, J. M.; Van De Berg, W. J.; De Boer, B.; Oerlemans, J.

    2014-01-01

    Due to a scarcity of observations and its long memory of uncertain past climate, the Antarctic Ice Sheet remains a largely unknown factor in the prediction of global sea level change. As the history of the ice sheet plays a key role in its future evolution, in this study we model the Antarctic Ice

  18. A new world lakes database for global hydrological modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pimentel, Rafael; Hasan, Abdulghani; Isberg, Kristina; Arheimer, Berit

    2017-04-01

    Lakes are crucial systems in global hydrology, they constitutes approximately a 65% of the total amount of surface water over the world. The recent advances in remote sensing technology have allowed getting new higher spatiotemporal resolution for global water bodies information. Within them, ESA global map of water bodies, stationary map at 150 m spatial resolution, (Lamarche et al., 2015) and the new high-resolution mapping of global surface water and its long-term changes, 32 years product with a 30 m spatial resolution (Pekel et al., 2016). Nevertheless, these databases identifies all the water bodies, they do not make differences between lakes, rivers, wetlands and seas. Some global databases with isolate lake information are available, i.e. GLWD (Global Lakes and Wetland Database) (Lernhard and Döll, 2004), however the location of some of the lakes is shifted in relation with topography and their extension have also experimented changes since the creation of the database. This work presents a new world lake database based on ESA global map water bodies and relied on the lakes in GLWD. Lakes from ESA global map of water bodies were identified using a flood fill algorithm, which is initialized using the centroid of the lakes defined in GLWD. Some manual checks were done to split lakes that are really connected but identified as different lakes in GLWD database. In this way the database associated information provided in GLDW is maintained. Moreover, the locations of the outlet of all them were included in the new database. The high resolution upstream area information provided by Global Width Database for Large Rivers (GWD-LR) was used for that. This additional points location constitutes very useful information for watershed delineation by global hydrological modelling.. The methodology was validated using in situ information from Sweden lakes and extended over the world. 13 500 lakes greater than 0.1 km2 were identified.

  19. Modeling past and future acidification of Swedish lakes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moldan, Filip; Cosby, Bernard J; Wright, Richard F

    2013-09-01

    Decades of acid deposition have caused acidification of lakes in Sweden. Here we use data for 3000 lakes to run the acidification model MAGIC and estimate historical and future acidification. The results indicate that beginning in about 1920 a progressively larger number of lakes in Sweden fell into the category of "not naturally acidified" (∆pH > 0.4). The peak in acidification was reached about 1985; since then many lakes have recovered in response to lower levels of acid deposition. Further recovery from acidification will occur by the year 2030 given implementation of agreed legislation for emissions of sulphur (S) and nitrogen (N) in Europe. But the number of catchments with soils being depleted in base cations will increase slightly. MAGIC-reconstructed history of acidification of lakes in Sweden agrees well with information on fish populations. Future acidification of Swedish lakes can be influenced by climate change as well as changes in forest harvest practices.

  20. SWAT Model Configuration, Calibration and Validation for Lake Champlain Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used to develop phosphorus loading estimates for sources in the Lake Champlain Basin. This document describes the model setup and parameterization, and presents calibration results.

  1. Modelling catchment hydrological responses in a Himalayan Lake ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    In this paper, we evaluate the impact of changing land use/land cover (LULC) on the hydrological pro- cesses in Dal lake catchment of Kashmir Himalayas by integrating remote sensing, simulation modelling and extensive field observations. Over the years, various anthropogenic pressures in the lake catchment.

  2. Drying of Urmia Lake: modeling of level fluctuations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Javad Ahmadi

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Background: Urmia Lake, the second largest hyper-saline lake of the world, has experienced lack of water and other environmental issues in recent years. Now, there is a danger of the lake drying out, which will affect the region and its inhabitants. This study aimed to present a model which can relate the water level of the lake to effective factors. Methods: Parameters that influence water level, such as precipitation, evaporation, water behind dams, and the previous year’s water level, were considered in the modeling procedure. The proposed model, based on evolutionary polynomial regression, can be used to evaluate salt marshes produced in the region in recent years. Results: Results show that the high surface-area-to-depth ratio of Urmia Lake is most influential on its drying; however, omitting this characteristic as an inherent one, the main cause is the construction of dams on rivers in the Urmia Lake basin. Conclusion: The proposed model predicts that by 2015, the water level of Urmia Lake will fall below 1269 m, and by 2030, the lake will dry out completely.

  3. Exposure age and ice-sheet model constraints on Pliocene East Antarctic ice sheet dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamane, Masako; Yokoyama, Yusuke; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; Obrochta, Stephen; Saito, Fuyuki; Moriwaki, Kiichi; Matsuzaki, Hiroyuki

    2015-04-24

    The Late Pliocene epoch is a potential analogue for future climate in a warming world. Here we reconstruct Plio-Pleistocene East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS) variability using cosmogenic nuclide exposure ages and model simulations to better understand ice sheet behaviour under such warm conditions. New and previously published exposure ages indicate interior-thickening during the Pliocene. An ice sheet model with mid-Pliocene boundary conditions also results in interior thickening and suggests that both the Wilkes Subglacial and Aurora Basins largely melted, offsetting increased ice volume. Considering contributions from West Antarctica and Greenland, this is consistent with the most recent IPCC AR5 estimate, which indicates that the Pliocene sea level likely did not exceed +20 m on Milankovitch timescales. The inception of colder climate since ∼3 Myr has increased the sea ice cover and inhibited active moisture transport to Antarctica, resulting in reduced ice sheet thickness, at least in coastal areas.

  4. Predicting future glacial lakes in Austria using different modelling approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Otto, Jan-Christoph; Helfricht, Kay; Prasicek, Günther; Buckel, Johannes; Keuschnig, Markus

    2017-04-01

    Glacier retreat is one of the most apparent consequences of temperature rise in the 20th and 21th centuries in the European Alps. In Austria, more than 240 new lakes have formed in glacier forefields since the Little Ice Age. A similar signal is reported from many mountain areas worldwide. Glacial lakes can constitute important environmental and socio-economic impacts on high mountain systems including water resource management, sediment delivery, natural hazards, energy production and tourism. Their development significantly modifies the landscape configuration and visual appearance of high mountain areas. Knowledge on the location, number and extent of these future lakes can be used to assess potential impacts on high mountain geo-ecosystems and upland-lowland interactions. Information on new lakes is critical to appraise emerging threads and potentials for society. The recent development of regional ice thickness models and their combination with high resolution glacier surface data allows predicting the topography below current glaciers by subtracting ice thickness from glacier surface. Analyzing these modelled glacier bed surfaces reveals overdeepenings that represent potential locations for future lakes. In order to predict the location of future glacial lakes below recent glaciers in the Austrian Alps we apply different ice thickness models using high resolution terrain data and glacier outlines. The results are compared and validated with ice thickness data from geophysical surveys. Additionally, we run the models on three different glacier extents provided by the Austrian Glacier Inventories from 1969, 1998 and 2006. Results of this historical glacier extent modelling are compared to existing glacier lakes and discussed focusing on geomorphological impacts on lake evolution. We discuss model performance and observed differences in the results in order to assess the approach for a realistic prediction of future lake locations. The presentation delivers

  5. LAKE-0: a model for the simulation of nuclides transfer in lake scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Garcia-Olivares, A.; Aguero, A.; Pinedo, P.

    1994-07-01

    This report presents documentation and a user's manual for the program LAKE-0, a mathematical model of nuclides transfer in lake scenarios. Mathematical equations and physical principles used to develop the code are presented in section 2. The program use is presented in section 3 including input data sets and output data. Section 4 presents two example problems, and some results. The complete program listing including comments is presented in Appendix A. Nuclides are assumed to center the lake via atmospheric deposition and carried by the water runoff and the dragged sediments from the adjacent catchment. The dynamics of the nuclides inside the lake is based in the model proposed by Codell (11) as modified in (5). The removal of concentration from the lake water is due to out flow from the lake and to the transfer of activity to the button sediments. The model has been applied to the Esthwaite Water (54 degree celsius 2 l'N, 03 degree celsius 00'W at 65 m. asi.) in the frame of the VAMP Aquatic Working Group (8) and to Devoke Water (5 21.5'N, 03H8'W at 230 m. asi.). (Author). 13 refs.

  6. Lake-0: A model for the simulation of nuclides transfer in lake scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garcia-Olivares, A.; Aguero, A.; Pinedo, P.

    1994-01-01

    This report presents documentation and a user's manual for the program LAKE-0, a mathematical model of nuclides transfer in lake scenarios. Mathematical equations and physical principles used to develop the code are presented in section 2. The program use is presented in section 3 including input data sets and output data. Section 4 presents two example problems, and some results. The complete program listing including comments is presented in Appendix A. Nuclides are assumed to enter the lake via atmospheric deposition and carried by the water runoff and the dragged sediments from the adjacent catchment. The dynamics of the nuclides inside the lake is based in the model proposed by Codell (11) as modified in (5). The removal of concentration from the lake water is due to outflow from the lake and to the transfer of activity to the bottom sediments. The model has been applied to the Esthwaite Water (54 degree 21 minute N, 03 degree 00 minute W at 65 m. asl.) in the frame of the VAMP Aquatic Working Group (8) and to Devoke Water (54 degree 21 minute 5'N, 03 degree, 18 minute W at 230 m. asl.)

  7. LAKE-0: a model for the simulation of nuclides transfer in lake scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garcia-Olivares, A.; Aguero, A.; Pinedo, P.

    1994-01-01

    This report presents documentation and a user's manual for the program LAKE-0, a mathematical model of nuclides transfer in lake scenarios. Mathematical equations and physical principles used to develop the code are presented in section 2. The program use is presented in section 3 including input data sets and output data. Section 4 presents two example problems, and some results. The complete program listing including comments is presented in Appendix A. Nuclides are assumed to center the lake via atmospheric deposition and carried by the water runoff and the dragged sediments from the adjacent catchment. The dynamics of the nuclides inside the lake is based in the model proposed by Codell (11) as modified in (5). The removal of concentration from the lake water is due to out flow from the lake and to the transfer of activity to the button sediments. The model has been applied to the Esthwaite Water (54 degree celsius 2 l'N, 03 degree celsius 00'W at 65 m. asi.) in the frame of the VAMP Aquatic Working Group (8) and to Devoke Water (5 21.5'N, 03H8'W at 230 m. asi.). (Author). 13 refs

  8. Consistent biases in Antarctic sea ice concentration simulated by climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roach, Lettie A.; Dean, Samuel M.; Renwick, James A.

    2018-01-01

    The simulation of Antarctic sea ice in global climate models often does not agree with observations. In this study, we examine the compactness of sea ice, as well as the regional distribution of sea ice concentration, in climate models from the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and in satellite observations. We find substantial differences in concentration values between different sets of satellite observations, particularly at high concentrations, requiring careful treatment when comparing to models. As a fraction of total sea ice extent, models simulate too much loose, low-concentration sea ice cover throughout the year, and too little compact, high-concentration cover in the summer. In spite of the differences in physics between models, these tendencies are broadly consistent across the population of 40 CMIP5 simulations, a result not previously highlighted. Separating models with and without an explicit lateral melt term, we find that inclusion of lateral melt may account for overestimation of low-concentration cover. Targeted model experiments with a coupled ocean-sea ice model show that choice of constant floe diameter in the lateral melt scheme can also impact representation of loose ice. This suggests that current sea ice thermodynamics contribute to the inadequate simulation of the low-concentration regime in many models.

  9. LakeMIP Kivu: evaluating the representation of a large, deep tropical lake by a set of one-dimensional lake models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    WIM Thiery

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available The African great lakes are of utmost importance for the local economy (fishing, as well as being essential to the survival of the local people. During the past decades, these lakes experienced fast changes in ecosystem structure and functioning, and their future evolution is a major concern. In this study, for the first time a set of one-dimensional lake models are evaluated for Lake Kivu (2.28°S; 28.98°E, East Africa. The unique limnology of this meromictic lake, with the importance of salinity and subsurface springs in a tropical high-altitude climate, presents a worthy challenge to the seven models involved in the Lake Model Intercomparison Project (LakeMIP. Meteorological observations from two automatic weather stations are used to drive the models, whereas a unique dataset, containing over 150 temperature profiles recorded since 2002, is used to assess the model's performance. Simulations are performed over the freshwater layer only (60 m and over the average lake depth (240 m, since salinity increases with depth below 60 m in Lake Kivu and some lake models do not account for the influence of salinity upon lake stratification. All models are able to reproduce the mixing seasonality in Lake Kivu, as well as the magnitude and seasonal cycle of the lake enthalpy change. Differences between the models can be ascribed to variations in the treatment of the radiative forcing and the computation of the turbulent heat fluxes. Fluctuations in wind velocity and solar radiation explain inter-annual variability of observed water column temperatures. The good agreement between the deep simulations and the observed meromictic stratification also shows that a subset of models is able to account for the salinity- and geothermal-induced effects upon deep-water stratification. Finally, based on the strengths and weaknesses discerned in this study, an informed choice of a one-dimensional lake model for a given research purpose becomes possible.

  10. Modeling of subglacial hydrological development following rapid supraglacial lake drainage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dow, C. F.; Kulessa, B.; Rutt, I. C.; Tsai, V. C.; Pimentel, S.; Doyle, S. H.; van As, D.; Lindbäck, K.; Pettersson, R.; Jones, G. A.; Hubbard, A.

    2015-06-01

    The rapid drainage of supraglacial lakes injects substantial volumes of water to the bed of the Greenland ice sheet over short timescales. The effect of these water pulses on the development of basal hydrological systems is largely unknown. To address this, we develop a lake drainage model incorporating both (1) a subglacial radial flux element driven by elastic hydraulic jacking and (2) downstream drainage through a linked channelized and distributed system. Here we present the model and examine whether substantial, efficient subglacial channels can form during or following lake drainage events and their effect on the water pressure in the surrounding distributed system. We force the model with field data from a lake drainage site, 70 km from the terminus of Russell Glacier in West Greenland. The model outputs suggest that efficient subglacial channels do not readily form in the vicinity of the lake during rapid drainage and instead water is evacuated primarily by a transient turbulent sheet and the distributed system. Following lake drainage, channels grow but are not large enough to reduce the water pressure in the surrounding distributed system, unless preexisting channels are present throughout the domain. Our results have implications for the analysis of subglacial hydrological systems in regions where rapid lake drainage provides the primary mechanism for surface-to-bed connections.

  11. Antarctic Harsh Environment as Natural Stress Model: Impact on Salivary Immunoglobulins, Transforming Growth Factor-β and Cortisol Level.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mishra, K P; Yadav, A P; Ganju, Lilly

    2012-10-01

    The Antarctic continent on the planet Earth is full of environmental extremes. It is considered as natural stress model. Therefore, the present study examined the effect of harsh environment on the certain salivary markers of 28th Indian Antarctic expeditioners. Thirty healthy men and women (median age 36 year; range 22-61 year) participated in this study. Parameters measured were salivary IgA (SIgA), IgM (SIgM), TGF-β and cortisol level at three different time points: (I) before leaving India on 26th October 2008 for base line level; (II) after 1 month on-board journey on 31st January 2009 in Southern Ocean and (III) after 1 month staying at Maitri, Antarctica on 3rd March 2009. Our observation indicated that Ship borne journey and Antarctic environment increased the SIgA levels while that of SIgM level was not altered on-board but decreased by staying for 1 month at Antarctica. No significant alteration was found in the TGF-β and cortisol level at any point of time. The present study concluded that ship borne journey and Antarctic environment may induce the SIgA level while SIgM level decreased in environmental extremes of Antarctica.

  12. Challenges and opportunities for integrating lake ecosystem modelling approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mooij, Wolf M.; Trolle, Dennis; Jeppesen, Erik; Arhonditsis, George; Belolipetsky, Pavel V.; Chitamwebwa, Deonatus B.R.; Degermendzhy, Andrey G.; DeAngelis, Donald L.; Domis, Lisette N. De Senerpont; Downing, Andrea S.; Elliott, J. Alex; Ruberto, Carlos Ruberto; Gaedke, Ursula; Genova, Svetlana N.; Gulati, Ramesh D.; Hakanson, Lars; Hamilton, David P.; Hipsey, Matthew R.; Hoen, Jochem 't; Hulsmann, Stephan; Los, F. Hans; Makler-Pick, Vardit; Petzoldt, Thomas; Prokopkin, Igor G.; Rinke, Karsten; Schep, Sebastiaan A.; Tominaga, Koji; Van Dam, Anne A.; Van Nes, Egbert H.; Wells, Scott A.; Janse, Jan H.

    2010-01-01

    A large number and wide variety of lake ecosystem models have been developed and published during the past four decades. We identify two challenges for making further progress in this field. One such challenge is to avoid developing more models largely following the concept of others ('reinventing the wheel'). The other challenge is to avoid focusing on only one type of model, while ignoring new and diverse approaches that have become available ('having tunnel vision'). In this paper, we aim at improving the awareness of existing models and knowledge of concurrent approaches in lake ecosystem modelling, without covering all possible model tools and avenues. First, we present a broad variety of modelling approaches. To illustrate these approaches, we give brief descriptions of rather arbitrarily selected sets of specific models. We deal with static models (steady state and regression models), complex dynamic models (CAEDYM, CE-QUAL-W2, Delft 3D-ECO, LakeMab, LakeWeb, MyLake, PCLake, PROTECH, SALMO), structurally dynamic models and minimal dynamic models. We also discuss a group of approaches that could all be classified as individual based: super-individual models (Piscator, Charisma), physiologically structured models, stage-structured models and trait-based models. We briefly mention genetic algorithms, neural networks, Kalman filters and fuzzy logic. Thereafter, we zoom in, as an in-depth example, on the multi-decadal development and application of the lake ecosystem model PCLake and related models (PCLake Metamodel, Lake Shira Model, IPH-TRIM3D-PCLake). In the discussion, we argue that while the historical development of each approach and model is understandable given its 'leading principle', there are many opportunities for combining approaches. We take the point of view that a single 'right' approach does not exist and should not be strived for. Instead, multiple modelling approaches, applied concurrently to a given problem, can help develop an integrative

  13. Modeling of subglacial hydrological development following rapid supraglacial lake drainage

    OpenAIRE

    Dow, C F; Kulessa, B; Rutt, I C; Tsai, V C; Pimentel, S; Doyle, S H; van As, D; Lindb?ck, K; Pettersson, R; Jones, G A; Hubbard, A

    2015-01-01

    The rapid drainage of supraglacial lakes injects substantial volumes of water to the bed of the Greenland ice sheet over short timescales. The effect of these water pulses on the development of basal hydrological systems is largely unknown. To address this, we develop a lake drainage model incorporating both (1) a subglacial radial flux element driven by elastic hydraulic jacking and (2) downstream drainage through a linked channelized and distributed system. Here we present the model and exa...

  14. Parameter Estimations of Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) Model over the Life History of a Key Antarctic Species: The Antarctic Sea Star Odontaster validus Koehler, 1906.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agüera, Antonio; Collard, Marie; Jossart, Quentin; Moreau, Camille; Danis, Bruno

    2015-01-01

    Marine organisms in Antarctica are adapted to an extreme ecosystem including extremely stable temperatures and strong seasonality due to changes in day length. It is now largely accepted that Southern Ocean organisms are particularly vulnerable to global warming with some regions already being challenged by a rapid increase of temperature. Climate change affects both the physical and biotic components of marine ecosystems and will have an impact on the distribution and population dynamics of Antarctic marine organisms. To predict and assess the effect of climate change on marine ecosystems a more comprehensive knowledge of the life history and physiology of key species is urgently needed. In this study we estimate the Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) model parameters for key benthic Antarctic species the sea star Odontaster validus using available information from literature and experiments. The DEB theory is unique in capturing the metabolic processes of an organism through its entire life cycle as a function of temperature and food availability. The DEB model allows for the inclusion of the different life history stages, and thus, becomes a tool that can be used to model lifetime feeding, growth, reproduction, and their responses to changes in biotic and abiotic conditions. The DEB model presented here includes the estimation of reproduction handling rules for the development of simultaneous oocyte cohorts within the gonad. Additionally it links the DEB model reserves to the pyloric caeca an organ whose function has long been ascribed to energy storage. Model parameters described a slowed down metabolism of long living animals that mature slowly. O. validus has a large reserve that-matching low maintenance costs- allow withstanding long periods of starvation. Gonad development is continuous and individual cohorts developed within the gonads grow in biomass following a power function of the age of the cohort. The DEB model developed here for O. validus allowed us to

  15. Parameter Estimations of Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB Model over the Life History of a Key Antarctic Species: The Antarctic Sea Star Odontaster validus Koehler, 1906.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonio Agüera

    Full Text Available Marine organisms in Antarctica are adapted to an extreme ecosystem including extremely stable temperatures and strong seasonality due to changes in day length. It is now largely accepted that Southern Ocean organisms are particularly vulnerable to global warming with some regions already being challenged by a rapid increase of temperature. Climate change affects both the physical and biotic components of marine ecosystems and will have an impact on the distribution and population dynamics of Antarctic marine organisms. To predict and assess the effect of climate change on marine ecosystems a more comprehensive knowledge of the life history and physiology of key species is urgently needed. In this study we estimate the Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB model parameters for key benthic Antarctic species the sea star Odontaster validus using available information from literature and experiments. The DEB theory is unique in capturing the metabolic processes of an organism through its entire life cycle as a function of temperature and food availability. The DEB model allows for the inclusion of the different life history stages, and thus, becomes a tool that can be used to model lifetime feeding, growth, reproduction, and their responses to changes in biotic and abiotic conditions. The DEB model presented here includes the estimation of reproduction handling rules for the development of simultaneous oocyte cohorts within the gonad. Additionally it links the DEB model reserves to the pyloric caeca an organ whose function has long been ascribed to energy storage. Model parameters described a slowed down metabolism of long living animals that mature slowly. O. validus has a large reserve that-matching low maintenance costs- allow withstanding long periods of starvation. Gonad development is continuous and individual cohorts developed within the gonads grow in biomass following a power function of the age of the cohort. The DEB model developed here for O

  16. Representation of the Antarctic circumpolar vortex mixing barrier in a Global Climate Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cameron, Chris; Conway, Jono; Bodeker, Greg; Renwick, James

    2017-04-01

    Dynamical processes that occur in the stratosphere between 15 and 50 km above Earth's surface can affect circulation in the troposphere and have an impact on weather and climate. The Antarctic Circumpolar Vortex (ACV) forms each winter and spring as a zone of strong stratospheric westerly winds surrounding Antarctica. The ACV presents a barrier to transport of air masses between middle and high-latitudes, and contributes to stratospheric temperatures above the polar region dropping sufficiently low in spring to allow for ozone loss. The processes controlling the permeability of the ACV, and how they are likely to respond to a changing climate and a recovering ozone hole, have not been well studied, and as a result are not well simulated in Global Climate Models, particularly in terms of sub-grid scale turbulent diffusion which is parameterized in the models. The UK Met Office Unified Model (UM) is used to examine vortex permeability using both the "New Dynamics" and the upgraded "ENDGame" dynamical cores. Results are compared against reanalysis representations of vortex permeability using the MERRA-2 and ERA-Interim reanalyses data sets, which have been shown to have superior performance in the Southern Hemisphere stratosphere when compared against NCEP-CFSR, and MERRA reanalyses. Results are expected to lead to improved representation of ACV transport process in Global Climate Models and subsequent improvements in climate modelling.

  17. Model bias for South Atlantic Antarctic intermediate water in CMIP5

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Chenyu; Liu, Zhengyu; Gu, Sifan

    2017-07-01

    Characterized by a salinity minimum in the mid-depth, the Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW) is an important component of global ocean water mass. The simulation of the AAIW in current climate models, however, has remained deficient, especially in the Atlantic sector. Here, we evaluate the simulation of the South Atlantic AAIW in eleven state-of-the-art coupled climate models. It is found that all the models show a common AAIW bias relative to the observation, with a saltier, warmer and lighter core located at a shallower depth. This AAIW bias seems to contribute to a deficient freshwater export by the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), potentially overstabilizing the AMOC. The causes of the bias are investigated in sensitivity experiments using an ocean alone model. It is found that the AAIW bias is caused neither by the surface climate bias nor the North Atlantic bias, although is weakly affected by the inter-basin exchange. This left the conclusion that the AAIW bias is caused predominantly by the deficient model representation of ocean dynamics and mixing processes in the AAIW region.

  18. Holocene isostatic uplift of the South Shetland Islands, Antarctic Peninsula, modelled from raised beaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fretwell, P. T.; Hodgson, D. A.; Watcham, E. P.; Bentley, M. J.; Roberts, S. J.

    2010-07-01

    We present new isobases constraining the Holocene isostatic uplift of the South Shetland Islands, northern Antarctic Peninsula, based on evidence from raised shorelines. Holocene shorelines were described and surveyed at fifteen sites to determine the spatial variability of relative sea level (RSL) change across the South Shetland Islands, and provide new spatial RSL change corrections for the region. Results show that the highest shoreline is a transgressive feature, correlated by geomorphological evidence on most exposed coastlines of the archipelago. Its surveyed height was corrected for local variability in wave energy by subtracting the measured altitude of the present day shoreline. These corrected surveyed heights of the highest raised beach were modelled using quadratic polynomial trend surface analysis to constrain differing rates of regional isostatic uplift. We present two isobase models of isostatic uplift since formation of the highest Holocene raised beach circa 7360-7000 years ago. These models suggests a maximum uplift of ca 20 m was centred on an area north of Greenwich Island, with isobases implying an elongate zone of uplift orientated east-southeast to west-northwest along the spine of the island chain. This corresponds well with previously published geomorphologically based estimates of palaeo ice-extent and the deglaciation history of the South Shetland Islands and gives new context to the palaeo ice-extent and glacial history of the region.

  19. The influence of the Calbuco eruption on the 2015 Antarctic ozone hole in a fully coupled chemistry-climate model

    OpenAIRE

    Ivy, D; Solomon, S; Kinnison, D; Mills, M; Schmidt, A; Neely III, RR

    2017-01-01

    Recent research has demonstrated that the concentrations of anthropogenic halocarbons have decreased in response to the worldwide phaseout of ozone depleting substances. Yet in 2015 the Antarctic ozone hole reached a historical record daily average size in October. Model simulations with specified dynamics and temperatures based on a reanalysis suggested that the record size was likely due to the eruption of Calbuco but did not allow for fully coupled dynamical or thermal feedbacks. We presen...

  20. Lake on life support: Evaluating urban lake management measures by using a coupled 1D-modelling approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ladwig, Robert; Kirillin, Georgiy; Hinkelmann, Reinhard; Hupfer, Michael

    2017-04-01

    Urban surface water systems and especially lakes are heavily stressed and modified systems to comply with water management goals and expectations. In this study we focus on Lake Tegel in Berlin, Germany, as a representative of heavily modified urban lakes. In the 20th century, Lake Tegel received increased loadings of nutrients and leached heavy metals from an upstream sewage farm resulting in severe eutrophication problems. The construction of two upstream treatment plants caused a lowering of nutrient concentrations and a re-oligotrophication of the lake. Additionally, artificial aerators, to keep the hypolimnion oxic, and a lake pipeline, to bypass water for maintaining a minimum discharge, went into operation. Lake Tegel is still heavily used for drinking water extraction by bank filtration. These interacting management measures make the system vulnerable to changing climate conditions and pollutant loads. Past modelling studies have shown the complex hydrodynamics of the lake. Here, we are following a simplified approach by using a less computational time consuming vertical 1D-model to simulate the hydrodynamics and the ecological interactions of the system by coupling the General Lake Model to the Aquatic Ecodynamics Model Library 2. For calibration of the multidimensional parameter space we applied the Covariance Matrix Adaption-Evolution Strategy algorithm. The model is able to sufficiently replicate the vertical field temperature profiles of Lake Tegel as well as to simulate similar concentration ranges of phosphate, dissolved oxygen and nitrate. The calibrated model is used to run an uncertainty analysis by sampling the simulated data within the meaning of the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm. Finally, we are evaluating different scenarios: (1) changing air temperatures, precipitation and wind speed due to effects of climate change, (2) decreased discharges into the lake due to bypassing treated effluents into a near stream instead of Lake Tegel, and (3

  1. Panama Lakes Water Quality Modeling Study

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Bunch, Barry

    2003-01-01

    .... The canal has a length of 30 km and is capable of traversing vessels up to 294 m long with maximum drafts of 12 m Most portions of the canal are above sea level in a man-made reservoir, Gatun Lake...

  2. Modeling the Dynamics of the Atmospheric Boundary Layer Over the Antarctic Plateau With a General Circulation Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vignon, Etienne; Hourdin, Frédéric; Genthon, Christophe; Van de Wiel, Bas J. H.; Gallée, Hubert; Madeleine, Jean-Baptiste; Beaumet, Julien

    2018-01-01

    Observations evidence extremely stable boundary layers (SBL) over the Antarctic Plateau and sharp regime transitions between weakly and very stable conditions. Representing such features is a challenge for climate models. This study assesses the modeling of the dynamics of the boundary layer over the Antarctic Plateau in the LMDZ general circulation model. It uses 1 year simulations with a stretched-grid over Dome C. The model is nudged with reanalyses outside of the Dome C region such as simulations can be directly compared to in situ observations. We underline the critical role of the downward longwave radiation for modeling the surface temperature. LMDZ reasonably represents the near-surface seasonal profiles of wind and temperature but strong temperature inversions are degraded by enhanced turbulent mixing formulations. Unlike ERA-Interim reanalyses, LMDZ reproduces two SBL regimes and the regime transition, with a sudden increase in the near-surface inversion with decreasing wind speed. The sharpness of the transition depends on the stability function used for calculating the surface drag coefficient. Moreover, using a refined vertical grid leads to a better reversed "S-shaped" relationship between the inversion and the wind. Sudden warming events associated to synoptic advections of warm and moist air are also well reproduced. Near-surface supersaturation with respect to ice is not allowed in LMDZ but the impact on the SBL structure is moderate. Finally, climate simulations with the free model show that the recommended configuration leads to stronger inversions and winds over the ice-sheet. However, the near-surface wind remains underestimated over the slopes of East-Antarctica.

  3. A new heat flux model for the Antarctic Peninsula incorporating spatially variable upper crustal radiogenic heat production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burton-Johnson, A.; Halpin, J.; Whittaker, J. M.; Graham, F. S.; Watson, S. J.

    2017-12-01

    We present recently published findings (Burton-Johnson et al., 2017) on the variability of Antarctic sub-glacial heat flux and the impact from upper crustal geology. Our new method reveals that the upper crust contributes up to 70% of the Antarctic Peninsula's subglacial heat flux, and that heat flux values are more variable at smaller spatial resolutions than geophysical methods can resolve. Results indicate a higher heat flux on the east and south of the Peninsula (mean 81 mWm-2) where silicic rocks predominate, than on the west and north (mean 67 mWm-2) where volcanic arc and quartzose sediments are dominant. Whilst the data supports the contribution of HPE-enriched granitic rocks to high heat flux values, sedimentary rocks can be of comparative importance dependent on their provenance and petrography. Models of subglacial heat flux must utilize a heterogeneous upper crust with variable radioactive heat production if they are to accurately predict basal conditions of the ice sheet. Our new methodology and dataset facilitate improved numerical model simulations of ice sheet dynamics. The most significant challenge faced remains accurate determination of crustal structure, particularly the depths of the HPE-enriched sedimentary basins and the sub-glacial geology away from exposed outcrops. Continuing research (particularly detailed geophysical interpretation) will better constrain these unknowns and the effect of upper crustal geology on the Antarctic ice sheet. Burton-Johnson, A., Halpin, J.A., Whittaker, J.M., Graham, F.S., and Watson, S.J., 2017, A new heat flux model for the Antarctic Peninsula incorporating spatially variable upper crustal radiogenic heat production: Geophysical Research Letters, v. 44, doi: 10.1002/2017GL073596.

  4. Modeling CO 2 emissions from Arctic lakes: Model development and site-level study: MODELING CO 2 EMISSIONS FROM ARCTIC LAKES

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tan, Zeli [Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, Purdue University, West Lafayette Indiana USA; Now at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Zhuang, Qianlai [Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, Purdue University, West Lafayette Indiana USA; Department of Agronomy, Purdue University, West Lafayette Indiana USA; Shurpali, Narasinha J. [Department of Environmental and Biological Science, University of Eastern Finland, Kuopio Finland; Marushchak, Maija E. [Department of Environmental and Biological Science, University of Eastern Finland, Kuopio Finland; Biasi, Christina [Department of Environmental and Biological Science, University of Eastern Finland, Kuopio Finland; Eugster, Werner [Department of Environmental Systems Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich Switzerland; Walter Anthony, Katey [Water and Environmental Research Center, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks Alaska USA

    2017-09-01

    Recent studies indicated that Arctic lakes play an important role in receiving, processing, and storing organic carbon exported from terrestrial ecosystems. To quantify the contribution of Arctic lakes to the global carbon cycle, we developed a one-dimensional process-based Arctic Lake Biogeochemistry Model (ALBM) that explicitly simulates the dynamics of organic and inorganic carbon in Arctic lakes. By realistically modeling water mixing, carbon biogeochemistry, and permafrost carbon loading, the model can reproduce the seasonal variability of CO2 fluxes from the study Arctic lakes. The simulated area-weighted CO2 fluxes from yedoma thermokarst lakes, non-yedoma thermokarst lakes and glacial lakes are 29.5 g C m-2 yr-1, 13.0 g C m-2 yr-1 and 21.4 g C m-2 yr-1, respectively, close to the observed values (31.2 g C m-2 yr-1, 17.2 g C m-2 yr-1 and 16.5±7.7 g C m-2 yr-1, respectively). The simulations show that the high CO2 fluxes from yedoma thermokarst lakes are stimulated by the biomineralization of mobilized labile organic carbon from thawing yedoma permafrost. The simulations also imply that the relative contribution of glacial lakes to the global carbon cycle could be the largest because of their much larger surface area and high biomineralization and carbon loading. According to the model, sunlight-induced organic carbon degradation is more important for shallow non-yedoma thermokarst lakes but its overall contribution to the global carbon cycle could be limited. Overall, the ALBM model can simulate the whole-lake carbon balance of Arctic lakes, a difficult task for field and laboratory experiments and other biogeochemistry models.

  5. Modelling acoustic propagation beneath Antarctic sea ice using measured environmental parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexander, Polly; Duncan, Alec; Bose, Neil; Williams, Guy

    2016-09-01

    Autonomous underwater vehicles are improving and expanding in situ observations of sea ice for the validation of satellite remote sensing and climate models. Missions under sea ice, particularly over large distances (up to 100 km) away from the immediate vicinity of a ship or base, require accurate acoustic communication for monitoring, emergency response and some navigation systems. We investigate the propagation of acoustic signals in the Antarctic seasonal ice zone using the BELLHOP model, examining the influence of ocean and sea ice properties. We processed available observations from around Antarctica to generate input variables such as sound speed, surface reflection coefficient (R) and roughness parameters. The results show that changes in the sound speed profile make the most significant difference to the propagation of the direct path signal. The inclusion of the surface reflected signals from a flat ice surface was found to greatly decrease the transmission loss with range. When ice roughness was added, the transmission loss increased with roughness, in a manner similar to the direct path transmission loss results. The conclusions of this work are that: (1) the accuracy of acoustic modelling in this environment is greatly increased by using realistic sound speed data; (2) a risk averse ranging model would use only the direct path signal transmission; and (3) in a flat ice scenario, much greater ranges can be achieved if the surface reflected transmission paths are included. As autonomous missions under sea ice increase in scale and complexity, it will be increasingly important for operational procedures to include effective modelling of acoustic propagation with representative environmental data.

  6. Tides and lake-level variations in the great Patagonian lakes: Observations, modelling and geophysical implications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marderwald, Eric; Richter, Andreas; Horwath, Martin; Hormaechea, Jose Luis; Groh, Andreas

    2016-04-01

    In Patagonia, the glacial-isostatic adjustment (GIA) to past ice-mass changes (Ivins & James 2004; Klemann et al. 2007) is of particular interest in the context of the determination of the complex regional rheology related to plate subduction in a triple-junction constellation. To further complicate the situation, GIA is overlaid with load deformation not only due to present ice mass changes but also due to water-level changes in the lakes surrounding the icefields and the ocean surrounding Patagonia. These elastic deformations affect the determination of glacial-isostatic uplift rates from GPS observations (Dietrich et al. 2010; Lange et al. 2014). Observations of lake tides and their comparison with the theoretical tidal signal have been used previously to validate predictions of ocean tidal loading and have revealed regional deviations from conventional global elastic earth models (Richter et al. 2009). In this work we investigate the tides and lake-level variations in Lago Argentino, Lago Viedma, Lago San Martín/O'Higgins and Lago Buenos Aires/General Carrera. This allows us to test, among other things, the validity of tidal loading models. We present pressure tide-gauge records from two sites in Lago Argentino extending over 2.5 years (Richter et al. 2015). These observations are complemented by lake-level records provided by the Argentine National Hydrometeorological Network. Based on these lake-level time series the principal processes affecting the lake level are identified and quantified. Lake-level changes reflecting variations in lake volume are dominated by a seasonal cycle exceeding 1 m in amplitude. Lake-volume changes occur in addition with a daily period in response to melt water influx from surrounding glaciers. In Lago Argentino sporadic lake-volume jumps are caused by bursting of the ice dam of Perito Moreno glacier. Water movements in these lakes are dominated by surface seiches reaching 20 cm in amplitude. A harmonic tidal analysis of the lake

  7. Antarctic circumpolar transport and the southern mode: a model investigation of interannual to decadal timescales

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. W. Hughes

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available It is well-established that, at periods shorter than a year, variations in Antarctic circumpolar transport are reflected in a barotropic mode, known as the southern mode, in which sea level and bottom pressure varies coherently around Antarctica. Here, we use two multidecadal ocean model runs to investigate the behaviour of the southern mode at timescales on which density changes become important, leading to a baroclinic component to the adjustment. We find that the concept of a southern mode in bottom pressure remains valid, and remains a direct measure of the circumpolar transport, with changes at the northern boundary playing only a small role even on decadal timescales. However, at periods longer than about 5 years, density changes start to play a role, leading to a surface intensification of the vertical profile of the transport. We also find that barotropic currents on the continental slope account for a significant fraction of the variability, and produce surface intensification in the meridional-integral flow. Circumpolar sea level and transport are related at all investigated timescales. However, the role of density variations results in a ratio of sea level change to transport which becomes larger at longer timescales. This means that any long-term transport monitoring strategy based on present measurement systems must involve multiplying the observed quantity by a factor which depends on frequency.

  8. Bioaccumulation of trace metals in the Antarctic amphipod Orchomene plebs: evaluation of toxicokinetic models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kahle, J; Zauke, G-P

    2003-05-01

    Bioaccumulation of Cd, Co, Cu, Ni, Pb and Zn in Antarctic gammaridean amphipod collectives, Orchomene plebs (Hurley, 1965), was investigated during a cruise of RV "Polarstern" to the Wedell Sea. With the sole exception of Cd the organisms accumulated metals during exposure and depurated them in uncontaminated seawater. Four independent toxicokinetic experiments and one field study were modelled simultaneously to calculate the following size-dependent bioconcentration factors for organisms with body length 10 mm (BCF(10 mm)): 130 (Co), 4030 (Cu), 190 (Ni), 2900 (Pb), and 5210 (Zn). On the time scale of our experiments the data suggest an increased metal uptake by previously exposed test organisms. The collectives investigated may be regarded as potentially suitable biomonitors for Co, Cu, Ni, Pb and Zn but not for Cd. An approach to evaluate the sensitivity of Orchomene plebs as a biomonitor of waterborne metals in the field indicates minimal increments of the ambient exposure concentrations of 0.01 microg Co l(-1), 0.2 microg Cu l(-1), 0.4 microg Ni l(-1), 0.6 microg Pb l(-1) and 0.3 microg Zn l(-1).

  9. Prospects for surviving climate change in Antarctic aquatic species

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peck Lloyd S

    2005-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Maritime Antarctic freshwater habitats are amongst the fastest changing environments on Earth. Temperatures have risen around 1°C and ice cover has dramatically decreased in 15 years. Few animal species inhabit these sites, but the fairy shrimp Branchinecta gaini typifies those that do. This species survives up to 25°C daily temperature fluctuations in summer and passes winter as eggs at temperatures down to -25°C. Its annual temperature envelope is, therefore around 50°C. This is typical of Antarctic terrestrial species, which exhibit great physiological flexibility in coping with temperature fluctuations. The rapidly changing conditions in the Maritime Antarctic are enhancing fitness in these species by increasing the time available for feeding, growth and reproduction, as well as increasing productivity in lakes. The future problem these animals face is via displacement by alien species from lower latitudes. Such invasions are now well documented from sub-Antarctic sites. In contrast the marine Antarctic environment has very stable temperatures. However, seasonality is intense with very short summers and long winter periods of low to no algal productivity. Marine animals grow slowly, have long generation times, low metabolic rates and low levels of activity. They also die at temperatures between +5°C and +10°C. Failure of oxygen supply mechanisms and loss of aerobic scope defines upper temperature limits. As temperature rises, their ability to perform work declines rapidly before lethal limits are reached, such that 50% of populations of clams and limpets cannot perform essential activities at 2–3°C, and all scallops are incapable of swimming at 2°C. Currently there is little evidence of temperature change in Antarctic marine sites. Models predict average global sea temperatures will rise by around 2°C by 2100. Such a rise would take many Antarctic marine animals beyond their survival limits. Animals have 3 mechanisms for

  10. Modelling catchment hydrological responses in a Himalayan Lake ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Multi-sensor and multi-temporal satellite data for 1992 and 2005 was used for determining the spatio-temporal dynamics of the lake catchment. Geographic Information System (GIS) based simulation model namely Generalized Watershed Loading Function (GWLF) was used to model the hydrological processes under the ...

  11. Role of CO2-forced Antarctic shelf freshening on local shelf warming in an eddying global climate model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goddard, P.; Dufour, C.; Yin, J.; Griffies, S. M.; Winton, M.

    2017-12-01

    Ocean warming near the Antarctic ice shelves has critical implications for future ice sheet mass loss and global sea level rise. A global climate model (GFDL CM2.6) with an eddying ocean is used to quantify and better understand the mechanisms contributing to ocean warming on the Antarctic continental shelf in an idealized 2xCO2 experiment. The results indicate that the simulated shelf region warming varies in magnitude at different locations. Relatively large warm anomalies occur both in the upper 100 m and at depth, which are controlled by different mechanisms. Here, we focus on the deep shelf warming and its relationship to shelf freshening. Under CO2-forcing, enhanced runoff from Antarctica, more regional precipitation, and reduction of sea ice contribute to the shelf freshening. The freshening increases the lateral density gradient of the Antarctic Slope Front, which can limit along-isopycnal onshore transport of heat from the Circumpolar Deep Water across the shelf break. Thus, the magnitude and location of the freshening anomalies govern the magnitude and location of onshore heat transport and deep warm anomalies. Additionally, the freshening increases vertical stratification on the shelf. The enhanced stratification reduces vertical mixing of heat associated with diffusion and gravitational instabilities, further contributing to the build-up of temperature anomalies at depth. Freshening is a crucial driver of the magnitude and location of the warming; however, other drivers influence the warming such as CO2-forced weakening of the easterly wind stress and associated shoaling of isotherms. Understanding the relative role of freshening in the inhomogeneous ocean warming of the Antarctic continental shelf would lead to better projections of future ice sheet mass loss, especially near the most vulnerable calving fronts.

  12. The impact of tourists on Antarctic tardigrades: an ordination-based model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sandra J. McInnes

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Tardigrades are important members of the Antarctic biota yet little is known about their role in the soil fauna or whether they are affected by anthropogenic factors. The German Federal Environment Agency commissioned research to assess the impact of human activities on soil meiofauna at 14 localities along the Antarctic peninsula during the 2009/2010 and 2010/2011 austral summers. We used ordination techniques to re-assess the block-sampling design used to compare areas of high and low human impact, to identify which of the sampled variables were biologically relevant and/or demonstrated an anthropogenic significance. We found the most significant differences between locations, reflecting local habitat and vegetation factor, rather than within-location anthropogenic impact. We noted no evidence of exotic imports but report on new maritime Antarctic sample sites and habitats.

  13. Lake heat content and stability variation due to climate change: coupled regional climate model (REMO-lake model (DYRESM analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stefan Weinberger

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Climate change-derived higher air temperatures and the resulting increase in lake surface temperatures are known to influence the physical, biological and chemical processes of water bodies. By using hydrodynamic lake models coupled with regional climate models the potential future impact of a changing climate can be investigated. The present study hence elucidates limno-physical changes at the peri-Alpine, 83-m deep, currently dimictic Ammersee in southeastern Germany, both to underline the role of lakes as sentinels of climate change and provide a sound basis for further limnological investigations. This was realised by using water temperatures simulated with the hydrodynamic model DYRESM for the period 2041-2050, based on the results of the regional climate model REMO (IPCC A1B emission scenario. Modelling of future heat content resulted in a projected increase in the upper 3 m of the epilimnion from end of March to mid-November, whereas a decrease in future total heat content (January-December of the entire water column was simulated compared to that observed in 1997-2007. Lake thermal stability is projected to be higher in the period 2041-2050 than in 1985-2007. Stratification is expected to occur earlier and to last longer in the future than the pattern observed in 1985-2007. The future mean May-June depth of the thermocline is simulated to be situated above its past average vertical position, whereas an increase of mean thermocline depth is projected for the beginning of August to October. Furthermore, the mean May-October thickness of the metalimnion is simulated to increase. Additionally, we investigated the sensitivity of these limno-physical results to changes in the model parameter light extinction coefficient which determines how the solar radiation is absorbed by the lake water. The elucidation of physical changes at Ammersee by means of a regional climate model provides a sound basis on which to face the new challenges of lake

  14. An improved lake model for climate simulations: Model structure, evaluation, and sensitivity analyses in CESM1

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zachary Subin

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Lakes can influence regional climate, yet most general circulation models have, at best, simple and largely untested representations of lakes. We developed the Lake, Ice, Snow, and Sediment Simulator(LISSS for inclusion in the land-surface component (CLM4 of an earth system model (CESM1. The existing CLM4 lake modelperformed poorly at all sites tested; for temperate lakes, summer surface water temperature predictions were 10–25uC lower than observations. CLM4-LISSS modifies the existing model by including (1 a treatment of snow; (2 freezing, melting, and ice physics; (3 a sediment thermal submodel; (4 spatially variable prescribed lakedepth; (5 improved parameterizations of lake surface properties; (6 increased mixing under ice and in deep lakes; and (7 correction of previous errors. We evaluated the lake model predictions of water temperature and surface fluxes at three small temperate and boreal lakes where extensive observational data was available. We alsoevaluated the predicted water temperature and/or ice and snow thicknesses for ten other lakes where less comprehensive forcing observations were available. CLM4-LISSS performed very well compared to observations for shallow to medium-depth small lakes. For large, deep lakes, the under-prediction of mixing was improved by increasing the lake eddy diffusivity by a factor of 10, consistent with previouspublished analyses. Surface temperature and surface flux predictions were improved when the aerodynamic roughness lengths were calculated as a function of friction velocity, rather than using a constant value of 1 mm or greater. We evaluated the sensitivity of surface energy fluxes to modeled lake processes and parameters. Largechanges in monthly-averaged surface fluxes (up to 30 W m22 were found when excluding snow insulation or phase change physics and when varying the opacity, depth, albedo of melting lake ice, and mixing strength across ranges commonly found in real lakes. Typical

  15. Modeling CO2 emissions from Arctic lakes: Model development and site-level study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, Zeli; Zhuang, Qianlai; Shurpali, Narasinha J.; Marushchak, Maija E.; Biasi, Christina; Eugster, Werner; Walter Anthony, Katey

    2017-09-01

    Recent studies indicated that Arctic lakes play an important role in receiving, processing, and storing organic carbon exported from terrestrial ecosystems. To quantify the contribution of Arctic lakes to the global carbon cycle, we developed a one-dimensional process-based Arctic Lake Biogeochemistry Model (ALBM) that explicitly simulates the dynamics of organic and inorganic carbon in Arctic lakes. By realistically modeling water mixing, carbon biogeochemistry, and permafrost carbon loading, the model can reproduce the seasonal variability of CO2 fluxes from the study Arctic lakes. The simulated area-weighted CO2 fluxes from yedoma thermokarst lakes, nonyedoma thermokarst lakes, and glacial lakes are 29.5, 13.0, and 21.4 g C m-2 yr-1, respectively, close to the observed values (31.2, 17.2, and 16.5 ± 7.7 g C m-2 yr-1, respectively). The simulations show that the high CO2 fluxes from yedoma thermokarst lakes are stimulated by the biomineralization of mobilized labile organic carbon from thawing yedoma permafrost. The simulations also imply that the relative contribution of glacial lakes to the global carbon cycle could be the largest because of their much larger surface area and high biomineralization and carbon loading. According to the model, sunlight-induced organic carbon degradation is more important for shallow nonyedoma thermokarst lakes but its overall contribution to the global carbon cycle could be limited. Overall, the ALBM can simulate the whole-lake carbon balance of Arctic lakes, a difficult task for field and laboratory experiments and other biogeochemistry models.

  16. Antarctic boundary layer parametrization in a general circulation model: 1-D simulations facing summer observations at Dome C

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vignon, Etienne; Hourdin, Frédéric; Genthon, Christophe; Gallée, Hubert; Bazile, Eric; Lefebvre, Marie-Pierre; Madeleine, Jean-Baptiste; Van de Wiel, Bas J. H.

    2017-07-01

    The parametrization of the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) is critical over the Antarctic Plateau for climate modelling since it affects the climatological temperature inversion and the negatively buoyant near-surface flow over the ice-sheet. This study challenges state-of-the-art parametrizations used in general circulation models to represent the clear-sky summertime diurnal cycle of the ABL at Dome C, Antarctic Plateau. The Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique-Zoom model is run in a 1-D configuration on the fourth Global Energy and Water Cycle Exchanges Project Atmospheric Boundary Layers Study case. Simulations are analyzed and compared to observations, giving insights into the sensitivity of one model that participates to the intercomparison exercise. Snow albedo and thermal inertia are calibrated leading to better surface temperatures. Using the so-called "thermal plume model" improves the momentum mixing in the diurnal ABL. In stable conditions, four turbulence schemes are tested. Best simulations are those in which the turbulence cuts off above 35 m in the middle of the night, highlighting the contribution of the longwave radiation in the ABL heat budget. However, the nocturnal surface layer is not stable enough to distinguish between surface fluxes computed with different stability functions. The absence of subsidence in the forcings and an underestimation of downward longwave radiation are identified to be likely responsible for a cold bias in the nocturnal ABL. Apart from model-specific improvements, the paper clarifies on which are the critical aspects to improve in general circulation models to correctly represent the summertime ABL over the Antarctic Plateau.

  17. A sediment resuspension and water quality model of Lake Okeechobee

    Science.gov (United States)

    James, R.T.; Martin, J.; Wool, T.; Wang, P.-F.

    1997-01-01

    The influence of sediment resuspension on the water quality of shallow lakes is well documented. However, a search of the literature reveals no deterministic mass-balance eutrophication models that explicitly include resuspension. We modified the Lake Okeeehobee water quality model - which uses the Water Analysis Simulation Package (WASP) to simulate algal dynamics and phosphorus, nitrogen, and oxygen cycles - to include inorganic suspended solids and algorithms that: (1) define changes in depth with changes in volume; (2) compute sediment resuspension based on bottom shear stress; (3) compute partition coefficients for ammonia and ortho-phosphorus to solids; and (4) relate light attenuation to solids concentrations. The model calibration and validation were successful with the exception of dissolved inorganic nitrogen species which did not correspond well to observed data in the validation phase. This could be attributed to an inaccurate formulation of algal nitrogen preference and/or the absence of nitrogen fixation in the model. The model correctly predicted that the lake is lightlimited from resuspended solids, and algae are primarily nitrogen limited. The model simulation suggested that biological fluxes greatly exceed external loads of dissolved nutrients; and sedimentwater interactions of organic nitrogen and phosphorus far exceed external loads. A sensitivity analysis demonstrated that parameters affecting resuspension, settling, sediment nutrient and solids concentrations, mineralization, algal productivity, and algal stoichiometry are factors requiring further study to improve our understanding of the Lake Okeechobee ecosystem.

  18. Key Lake, a model of Canadian development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Runnalls, O.J.C.

    1987-01-01

    Canada ranks among the world's top four countries in terms of measured, indicated, and inferred uranium resources. Since 1984, Canada has been the world's largest uranium producer providing some 30% of the world's total. An important reason for this strong position is related to the discovery of high-grade near-surface uranium deposits in northern Saskatchewan in 1968 and subsequently. The history of the discovery of one such deposit near Key Lake made by the German-controlled Uranerz Exploration and Mining Limited is recounted briefly. The Key Lake mine became operational in 1983 and currently is the largest uranium-producing facility in the world. At present, less than 20% of the country's annual uranium output of approximately 11,000 tonnes U is required to provide fuel for the domestic nuclear power program. The excess, more than 9000 tonnes U annually, is planned to be exported abroad, primarily to customers in Western Europe, Eastern Asia and the United States. Given its strong resource base, large-scale exports from Canada should continue well into the next century. (orig.) [de

  19. New model and field data on estimates of Antarctic Bottom Water flow through the deep Vema Channel

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frey, D. I.; Fomin, V. V.; Diansky, N. A.; Morozov, E. G.; Neiman, V. G.

    2017-05-01

    We used a numerical model of the ocean circulation with a high spatial resolution to obtain estimates of the kinematic characteristics of Antarctic Bottom Water flow through the abyssal Vema Channel in the southwestern part of the Atlantic Ocean. The results of simulations correspond to the data of direct velocity measurements made at several locations in the channel. The high horizontal and vertical resolution of the model in the bottom layer allowed us to study in detail the hydrodynamics of this flow over its entire length.

  20. [Ecotourism exploitation model in Bita Lake Natural Reserve of Yunnan].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, G; Wang, Y; Zhong, L

    2000-12-01

    Bita lake provincial natural reserve is located in Shangri-La region of North-western Yunnan, and was set as a demonstrating area for ecotourism exploitation in 1998. After a year's exploitation construction and half a year's operation as a branch of the 99' Kunming International Horticulture Exposition to accept tourists, it was proved that the ecotourism demonstrating area attained four integrated functions of ecotourism, i.e., tourism, protection, poverty clearing and environment education. Five exploitation and management models including function zoned exploitation model, featured tourism communication model signs system designing model, local Tibetan family reception model and environmental monitoring model, were also successful, which were demonstrated and spreaded to the whole province. Bita lake provincial natural reserve could be a good sample for the ecotourism exploitation natural reserves of the whole country.

  1. Interactive lakes in the Canadian Regional Climate Model, version 5: the role of lakes in the regional climate of North America

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bernard Dugas

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Two one-dimensional (1-D column lake models have been coupled interactively with a developmental version of the Canadian Regional Climate Model. Multidecadal reanalyses-driven simulations with and without lakes revealed the systematic biases of the model and the impact of lakes on the simulated North American climate.The presence of lakes strongly influences the climate of the lake-rich region of the Canadian Shield. Due to their large thermal inertia, lakes act to dampen the diurnal and seasonal cycle of low-level air temperature. In late autumn and winter, ice-free lakes induce large sensible and latent heat fluxes, resulting in a strong enhancement of precipitation downstream of the Laurentian Great Lakes, which is referred to as the snow belt.The FLake (FL and Hostetler (HL lake models perform adequately for small subgrid-scale lakes and for large resolved lakes with shallow depth, located in temperate or warm climatic regions. Both lake models exhibit specific strengths and weaknesses. For example, HL simulates too rapid spring warming and too warm surface temperature, especially in large and deep lakes; FL tends to damp the diurnal cycle of surface temperature. An adaptation of 1-D lake models might be required for an adequate simulation of large and deep lakes.

  2. Snow and ice on Bear Lake (Alaska – sensitivity experiments with two lake ice models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tido Semmler

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Snow and ice thermodynamics of Bear Lake (Alaska are investigated with a simple freshwater lake model (FLake and a more complex snow and ice thermodynamic model (HIGHTSI. A number of sensitivity experiments have been carried out to investigate the influence of snow and ice parameters and of different complexity on the results. Simulation results are compared with observations from the Alaska Lake Ice and Snow Observatory Network. Adaptations of snow thermal and optical properties in FLake can largely improve accuracy of the results. Snow-to-ice transformation is important for HIGHTSI to calculate the total ice mass balance. The seasonal maximum ice depth is simulated in FLake with a bias of −0.04 m and in HIGHTSI with no bias. Correlation coefficients between ice depth measurements and simulations are high (0.74 for FLake and 0.9 for HIGHTSI. The snow depth simulation can be improved by taking into account a variable snow density. Correlation coefficients for surface temperature are 0.72 for FLake and 0.81 for HIGHTSI. Overall, HIGHTSI gives slightly more accurate surface temperature than FLake probably due to the consideration of multiple snow and ice layers and the expensive iteration calculation procedure.

  3. Modelling present-day basal melt rates for Antarctic ice shelves using a parametrization of buoyant meltwater plumes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lazeroms, Werner M. J.; Jenkins, Adrian; Hilmar Gudmundsson, G.; van de Wal, Roderik S. W.

    2018-01-01

    Basal melting below ice shelves is a major factor in mass loss from the Antarctic Ice Sheet, which can contribute significantly to possible future sea-level rise. Therefore, it is important to have an adequate description of the basal melt rates for use in ice-dynamical models. Most current ice models use rather simple parametrizations based on the local balance of heat between ice and ocean. In this work, however, we use a recently derived parametrization of the melt rates based on a buoyant meltwater plume travelling upward beneath an ice shelf. This plume parametrization combines a non-linear ocean temperature sensitivity with an inherent geometry dependence, which is mainly described by the grounding-line depth and the local slope of the ice-shelf base. For the first time, this type of parametrization is evaluated on a two-dimensional grid covering the entire Antarctic continent. In order to apply the essentially one-dimensional parametrization to realistic ice-shelf geometries, we present an algorithm that determines effective values for the grounding-line depth and basal slope in any point beneath an ice shelf. Furthermore, since detailed knowledge of temperatures and circulation patterns in the ice-shelf cavities is sparse or absent, we construct an effective ocean temperature field from observational data with the purpose of matching (area-averaged) melt rates from the model with observed present-day melt rates. Our results qualitatively replicate large-scale observed features in basal melt rates around Antarctica, not only in terms of average values, but also in terms of the spatial pattern, with high melt rates typically occurring near the grounding line. The plume parametrization and the effective temperature field presented here are therefore promising tools for future simulations of the Antarctic Ice Sheet requiring a more realistic oceanic forcing.

  4. Roles of wind stress and thermodynamic forcing in recent trends in Antarctic sea ice and Southern Ocean SST: An ocean-sea ice model study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kusahara, Kazuya; Williams, Guy D.; Massom, Robert; Reid, Phillip; Hasumi, Hiroyasu

    2017-11-01

    In contrast to a strong decrease in Arctic sea ice extent, overall Antarctic sea ice extent has modestly increased since 1979. Several hypotheses have been proposed for the net Antarctic sea ice expansion, including atmosphere/ocean circulation and temperature changes, sea ice-atmospheric-ocean feedback, increased precipitation, and enhanced basal meltwater from ice shelves. Concomitant with this positive trend in Antarctic sea ice, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the Southern Ocean south of approximately 45°S have cooled over this period. However, the mechanisms responsible for the Antarctic sea ice expansion and the SST cooling trend remain poorly defined. Here, we conduct comprehensive sensitivity experiments using a coupled ocean-sea ice model with a steady-state ice shelf component in order to investigate the main drivers of recent trends in Antarctic sea ice and SST over the Southern Ocean. The results suggest that Antarctic sea ice expansion is mostly explained by trends in the thermodynamic surface forcing, notably cooling and drying and a reduction in longwave radiation. Similarly, thermodynamic forcing is found to be the main driver of the zonal SST cooling trend. While apparently less influential on sea ice extent and SST, wind stress plays a key role in sea ice motion, thickening coastal sea ice, and thinning and decreasing the concentration of ice in mid-pack regions of the Amundsen-eastern Ross seas and 65-95°E in winter-spring. Furthermore, the model suggests that ocean-ice shelf interaction does not significantly influence the observed trends in Antarctic sea ice coverage and Southern Ocean SST in recent decades.

  5. A model for landscape development in terms of shoreline displacement, sediment dynamics, lake formation, and lake choke-up processes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brydsten, Lars [Umeaa University, Dept. of Ecology and Environmental Science (Sweden)

    2006-12-15

    This project expands on the study 'A mathematical model for lake ontogeny in terms of filling with sediments and macrophyte vegetation' published in SKB TR-04-09. As the title suggests, this older model focuses on lakes (existing and future lakes). This newer study extends the model to examine progress of terrestrial objects such as mires or arable land. Furthermore, this newer model could simulate progress of the areas close to the objects. These areas are divided according to their watershed boundaries. If two or more objects are situated along the same brook, the lower situated area is defined as its catchments minus the catchments of the closest higher situated object. The model encourages the study of an object situated in the sea from the time of deglaciation (c. 10,000 BP) to the time for the object due to positive shore displacement is situated on land or that a lake object has progressed to a wetland, however not longer than 18,000 AP. The model focuses on the object and its location in 100-year steps. The model is written in VisualBasic and is divided into two modules, a marine module and a lake module. The marine module deals with shoreline displacement, erosion and accumulation of postglacial fine-grained sediments and erosion of glacial clay. Inputs to the marine module are a digital elevation model (DEM), a digital map showing the extension of the objects and a marine quaternary map. The two maps are in raster formats with exactly the same formats (extension and cell sizes) as the DEM. For each time step the water depths at each pixel are calculated using a shore displacement equation. Next, the water depth changes due to sediment dynamics are calculated using the following rules; accumulation of fine-grained sediments are allowed if the pixel is situated within a future lake object; erosion of fine-grained sediment is allowed if the pixel is not within a future lake object and the marine quaternary map shows occurrence of postglacial

  6. A model for landscape development in terms of shoreline displacement, sediment dynamics, lake formation, and lake choke-up processes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brydsten, Lars

    2006-12-01

    This project expands on the study 'A mathematical model for lake ontogeny in terms of filling with sediments and macrophyte vegetation' published in SKB TR-04-09. As the title suggests, this older model focuses on lakes (existing and future lakes). This newer study extends the model to examine progress of terrestrial objects such as mires or arable land. Furthermore, this newer model could simulate progress of the areas close to the objects. These areas are divided according to their watershed boundaries. If two or more objects are situated along the same brook, the lower situated area is defined as its catchments minus the catchments of the closest higher situated object. The model encourages the study of an object situated in the sea from the time of deglaciation (c. 10,000 BP) to the time for the object due to positive shore displacement is situated on land or that a lake object has progressed to a wetland, however not longer than 18,000 AP. The model focuses on the object and its location in 100-year steps. The model is written in VisualBasic and is divided into two modules, a marine module and a lake module. The marine module deals with shoreline displacement, erosion and accumulation of postglacial fine-grained sediments and erosion of glacial clay. Inputs to the marine module are a digital elevation model (DEM), a digital map showing the extension of the objects and a marine quaternary map. The two maps are in raster formats with exactly the same formats (extension and cell sizes) as the DEM. For each time step the water depths at each pixel are calculated using a shore displacement equation. Next, the water depth changes due to sediment dynamics are calculated using the following rules; accumulation of fine-grained sediments are allowed if the pixel is situated within a future lake object; erosion of fine-grained sediment is allowed if the pixel is not within a future lake object and the marine quaternary map shows occurrence of postglacial sediments and

  7. Modelling hourly rates of evaporation from small lakes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. J. Granger

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents the results of a field study of open water evaporation carried out on three small lakes in Western and Northern Canada. In this case small lakes are defined as those for which the temperature above the water surface is governed by the upwind land surface conditions; that is, a continuous boundary layer exists over the lake, and large-scale atmospheric effects such as entrainment do not come into play. Lake evaporation was measured directly using eddy covariance equipment; profiles of wind speed, air temperature and humidity were also obtained over the water surfaces. Observations were made as well over the upwind land surface.

    The major factors controlling open water evaporation were examined. The study showed that for time periods shorter than daily, the open water evaporation bears no relationship to the net radiation; the wind speed is the most significant factor governing the evaporation rates, followed by the land-water temperature contrast and the land-water vapour pressure contrast. The effect of the stability on the wind field was demonstrated; relationships were developed relating the land-water wind speed contrast to the land-water temperature contrast. The open water period can be separated into two distinct evaporative regimes: the warming period in the Spring, when the land is warmer than the water, the turbulent fluxes over water are suppressed; and the cooling period, when the water is warmer than the land, the turbulent fluxes over water are enhanced.

    Relationships were developed between the hourly rates of lake evaporation and the following significant variables and parameters (wind speed, land-lake temperature and humidity contrasts, and the downwind distance from shore. The result is a relatively simple versatile model for estimating the hourly lake evaporation rates. The model was tested using two independent data sets. Results show that the modelled evaporation follows the observed values

  8. Antarctic glaciations under Pliocene climate conditions from numerical modeling and compilation of local field-based reconstructions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bernales, Jorge; Rogozhina, Irina; Greve, Ralf

    2014-05-01

    The mid-Pliocene (3.15 to 2.85 million years before present) is the most recent period in Earth's history when temperatures and CO2 concentrations were likely sustainedly higher than pre-industrial values. Furthermore, the positions of the continents and their sea-land distributions had already reached their present configuration, sharing some similarities with today's patterns of ocean circulation and vegetation distributions. Although significant differences exist -such as a peak sea level that could have been 22 ± 10 m higher than it is today and sea surface temperatures particularly warmer at higher latitudes, mid-Pliocene has been identified as an ideal interval for studying the climate system under conditions similar to those projected for the end of this century. Among the sources of uncertainty in the projections, the response of the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) to warmer-than-today conditions seems to play a central role. Therefore, a better understanding of AIS's behavior during periods like the mid-Pliocene will provide valuable information that could help improve future predictions. For this purpose, we have compiled a wide range of local field-based reconstructions of the ice-sheet margin from Pliocene sediments (with the inclusions of organic matters such as, for instance, diatoms or palynoflora, or ice rafted debris), geochemical records, volcanic ashes and rocks, and geomorphology, and designed numerical experiments of the AIS dynamics during the mid-Pliocene warm period using the large-scale polythermal ice sheet-shelf model SICOPOLIS (Greve, 1997 [1]; Sato and Greve, 2012 [2]). The model is run with a horizontal resolution of 40 × 40 km by the climatology obtained from the PlioMIP Atmosphere Ocean Global Circulation Model experiments (Dolan et al., 2012 [3]). Parameters of the AIS model (e.g. ice calving, sub-ice shelf and surface ice melt, basal sliding, etc.) have initially been estimated using ice-sheet simulations driven by the present

  9. On Some Oikonymic Models of the Eastern Lake Onega Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ekaterina V. Zakharova

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The paper analyzes several models of settlement naming present in Eastern Lake Onega region and reflecting different stages of its ethnolinguistic history. The author focuses on oikonyms suffixed with -itsy/-itchi and those containing Balto-Fennic words kontu, kondu, kond ‘peasant household’ and selgä, vuara ‘mountain’. The areal analysis shows that oikonyms in -itsy/-itchi resulted from adaptation of Vepsian and Karelian names and outline the ways of ancient migrations of the Russians from Lake Ladoga region to Svir River and Lake Onega regions (Prisvirye and Obonezhye, Eastern Lake Onega region being a peripheral zone of the area traced by the model in question. The author argues that the few settlement names with the stem Kond- have relatively late origins, most likely Vepsian, though for some toponyms the Karelian origin is not to be ruled out. The low productivity of the selgä oikonymic model and the absence of settlement names with the determinant -vara can be explained by the historical dominance of the naming patterns using the Russian term gora ‘mountain’ which brings this region closer to the territory of the Russian North. The areal, statistic and linguistic analysis of the settlement names of Eastern Lake Onega region testifies to its marginal position as related to the Vepsian territories on the South, as well as the Karelian territories on the West and the Northern Russian lands on the East. This peripheral, marginal position of the region is due to its geographic features, first and foremost, to its association with the transit waterway which was, in the past, the Vodla River.

  10. Quantifying the Variability of CH4 Emissions from Pan-Arctic Lakes with Lake Biogeochemical and Landscape Evolution Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, Z.; Zhuang, Q.

    2014-12-01

    Recent studies in the arctic and subarctic show that CH4 emissions from pan-arctic lakes are playing much more significant roles in the regional carbon cycling than previously estimated. Permafrost thawing due to pronounced warming at northern high latitudes affects lake morphology, changing its CH4 emissions. Thermokarst can enlarge the extent of artic lakes, exposing stable ancient carbon buried in the permafrost zone for degradation and changing a previously known carbon sink to a large carbon source. In some areas, the thawing of subarctic discontinuous and isolated permafrost can diminish thermokarst lakes. To date, few models have considered these important hydrological and biogeochemical processes to provide adequate estimation of CH4 emissions from these lakes. To fill this gap, we have developed a process-based climate-sensitive lake biogeochemical model and a landscape evolution model, which have been applied to quantify the state and variability of CH4 emissions from this freshwater system. Site-level experiments show the models are capable to capture the spatial and temporal variability of CH4 emissions from lakes across Siberia and Alaska. With the lake biogeochemical model solely, we estimate that the magnitude of CH4 emissions from lakes is 13.2 Tg yr-1 in the north of 60 ºN at present, which is on the same order of CH4 emissions from northern high-latitude wetlands. The maximum increment is 11.8 Tg CH4 yr-1 by the end of the 21st century when the worst warming scenario is assumed. We expect the landscape evolution model will improve the existing estimates.

  11. Estimating summer nutrient concentrations in Northeastern lakes from SPARROW load predictions and modeled lake depth and volume.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W Bryan Milstead

    Full Text Available Global nutrient cycles have been altered by the use of fossil fuels and fertilizers resulting in increases in nutrient loads to aquatic systems. In the United States, excess nutrients have been repeatedly reported as the primary cause of lake water quality impairments. Setting nutrient criteria that are protective of a lakes ecological condition is one common solution; however, the data required to do this are not always easily available. A useful solution for this is to combine available field data (i.e., The United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA National Lake Assessment (NLA with average annual nutrient load models (i.e., USGS SPARROW model to estimate summer concentrations across a large number of lakes. In this paper we use this combined approach and compare the observed total nitrogen (TN and total phosphorus (TN concentrations in Northeastern lakes from the 2007 National Lake Assessment to those predicted by the Northeast SPARROW model. We successfully adjusted the SPARROW predictions to the NLA observations with the use of Vollenweider equations, simple input-output models that predict nutrient concentrations in lakes based on nutrient loads and hydraulic residence time. This allows us to better predict summer concentrations of TN and TP in Northeastern lakes and ponds. On average we improved our predicted concentrations of TN and TP with Vollenweider models by 18.7% for nitrogen and 19.0% for phosphorus. These improved predictions are being used in other studies to model ecosystem services (e.g., aesthetics and dis-services (e.g. cyanobacterial blooms for ~18,000 lakes in the Northeastern United States.

  12. Digitized Onondaga Lake Dissolved Oxygen Concentrations and Model Simulated Values using Bayesian Monte Carlo Methods

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — The dataset is lake dissolved oxygen concentrations obtained form plots published by Gelda et al. (1996) and lake reaeration model simulated values using Bayesian...

  13. A new 100-m Digital Elevation Model of the Antarctic Peninsula derived from ASTER Global DEM: methods and accuracy assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. J. Cook

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available A high resolution surface topography Digital Elevation Model (DEM is required to underpin studies of the complex glacier system on the Antarctic Peninsula. A complete DEM with better than 200 m pixel size and high positional and vertical accuracy would enable mapping of all significant glacial basins and provide a dataset for glacier morphology analyses. No currently available DEM meets these specifications. We present a new 100-m DEM of the Antarctic Peninsula (63–70° S, based on ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model (GDEM data. The raw GDEM products are of high-quality on the rugged terrain and coastal-regions of the Antarctic Peninsula and have good geospatial accuracy, but they also contain large errors on ice-covered terrain and we seek to minimise these artefacts. Conventional data correction techniques do not work so we have developed a method that significantly improves the dataset, smoothing the erroneous regions and hence creating a DEM with a pixel size of 100 m that will be suitable for many glaciological applications. We evaluate the new DEM using ICESat-derived elevations, and perform horizontal and vertical accuracy assessments based on GPS positions, SPOT-5 DEMs and the Landsat Image Mosaic of Antarctica (LIMA imagery. The new DEM has a mean elevation difference of −4 m (± 25 m RMSE from ICESat (compared to −13 m mean and ±97 m RMSE for the original ASTER GDEM, and a horizontal error of less than 2 pixels, although elevation accuracies are lower on mountain peaks and steep-sided slopes. The correction method significantly reduces errors on low relief slopes and therefore the DEM can be regarded as suitable for topographical studies such as measuring the geometry and ice flow properties of glaciers on the Antarctic Peninsula. The DEM is available for download from the NSIDC website: http://nsidc.org/data/nsidc-0516.html (Modeling the spatial and temporal dynamics of foraging movements of humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae) in the Western Antarctic Peninsula.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Curtice, Corrie; Johnston, David W; Ducklow, Hugh; Gales, Nick; Halpin, Patrick N; Friedlaender, Ari S

    2015-01-01

    A population of humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae) spends the austral summer feeding on Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba) along the Western Antarctic Peninsula (WAP). These whales acquire their annual energetic needs during an episodic feeding season in high latitude waters that must sustain long-distance migration and fasting on low-latitude breeding grounds. Antarctic krill are broadly distributed along the continental shelf and nearshore waters during the spring and early summer, and move closer to land during late summer and fall, where they overwinter under the protective and nutritional cover of sea ice. We apply a novel space-time utilization distribution method to test the hypothesis that humpback whale distribution reflects that of krill: spread broadly during summer with increasing proximity to shore and associated embayments during fall. Humpback whales instrumented with satellite-linked positional telemetry tags (n = 5), show decreased home range size, amount of area used, and increased proximity to shore over the foraging season. This study applies a new method to model the movements of humpback whales in the WAP region throughout the feeding season, and presents a baseline for future observations of the seasonal changes in the movement patterns and foraging behavior of humpback whales (one of several krill-predators affected by climate-driven changes) in the WAP marine ecosystem. As the WAP continues to warm, it is prudent to understand the ecological relationships between sea-ice dependent krill and krill predators, as well as the interactions among recovering populations of krill predators that may be forced into competition for a shared food resource.

  14. Modelling circulation in an ice-covered lake

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Boris Arkhipov

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available In deep ice-covered lakes with temperatures below 4 °C the heat flux from the bottom sediment results in a horizontal density gradient and a consequent flow along the bottom slope. Measurements in Lake Pääjärvi, Finland, show a stable temperature field where a heat gain through the bottom and a heat loss through the ice nearly balance each other. The circulation is thermal with low velocities (less than 1.5 cm s–1. We used the 3D hydrodynamic Princeton Ocean Model as a tool to simulate the water circulation and the temperature distribution under the ice. The model forcing was based on field temperature measurements. The model simulations suggest that in midwinter the velocity field of the upper water layers is anticyclonic while that of deep layers is cyclonic. Comparison with current measurements at one site showed good agreement between the modelled and observed results. On the basis of the modelled results it is possible to better understand the distributions of some micro-organisms and the accumulation of oxygen depleted waters in the deepest part of the lake.

  15. The response of a simple Antarctic ice-flow model to temperature and sea-level fluctuations over the Cenozoic era

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Tuyll, C.I.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/304831875; van de Wal, R.S.W.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/101899556; Oerlemans, J.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/06833656X

    2007-01-01

    An ice-flow model is used to simulate the Antarctic ice-sheet volume and deep-sea temperature record during Cenozoic times. We used a vertically integrated axisymmetric ice-sheet model, including bedrock adjustment. In order to overcome strong numerical hysteresis effects during climate change, the

  16. 21st Century Trends in Antarctic Temperature and Polar Stratospheric Cloud (PSC) Area in the GEOS Chemistry-Climate Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hurwitz, M. M.; Newman, P. A.

    2010-01-01

    This study examines trends in Antarctic temperature and APSC, a temperature proxy for the area of polar stratospheric clouds, in an ensemble of Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) chemistry-climate model (CCM) simulations of the 21st century. A selection of greenhouse gas, ozone-depleting substance, and sea surface temperature scenarios is used to test the trend sensitivity to these parameters. One scenario is used to compare temperature trends in two versions of the GEOS CCM. An extended austral winter season is examined in detail. In May, June, and July, the expected future increase in CO2-related radiative cooling drives temperature trends in the Antarctic lower stratosphere. At 50 hPa, a 1.3 K cooling is expected between 2000 and 2100. Ozone levels increase, despite this robust cooling signal and the consequent increase in APSC, suggesting the enhancement of stratospheric transport in future. In the lower stratosphere, the choice of climate change scenarios does not affect the magnitude of the early winter cooling. Midwinter temperature trends are generally small. In October, APSC trends have the same sign as the prescribed halogen trends. That is, there are negative APSC trends in "grealistic future" simulations, where halogen loading decreases in accordance with the Montreal Protocol and CO2 continues to increase. In these simulations, the speed of ozone recovery is not influenced by either the choice of sea surface temperature and greenhouse gas scenarios or by the model version.

  17. Development of a zoning-based environmental-ecological-coupled model for lakes to assess lake restoration effect

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Mengjia; Zou, Changxin; Zhao, Yanwei

    2017-04-01

    Environmental/ecological models are widely used for lake management as they provide a means to understand physical, chemical and biological processes in highly complex ecosystems. Most research focused on the development of environmental (water quality) and ecological models, separately. Limited studies were developed to couple the two models, and in these limited coupled models, a lake was regarded as a whole for analysis (i.e., considering the lake to be one well-mixed box), which was appropriate for small-scale lakes and was not sufficient to capture spatial variations within middle-scale or large-scale lakes. This paper seeks to establish a zoning-based environmental-ecological-coupled model for a lake. The Baiyangdian Lake, the largest freshwater lake in Northern China, was adopted as the study case. The coupled lake models including a hydrodynamics and water quality model established by MIKE21 and a compartmental ecological model used STELLA software have been established for middle-sized Baiyangdian Lake to realize the simulation of spatial variations of ecological conditions. On the basis of the flow field distribution results generated by MIKE21 hydrodynamics model, four water area zones were used as an example for compartmental ecological model calibration and validation. The results revealed that the developed coupled lake models can reasonably reflected the changes of the key state variables although there remain some state variables that are not well represented by the model due to the low quality of field monitoring data. Monitoring sites in a compartment may not be representative of the water quality and ecological conditions in the entire compartment even though that is the intention of compartment-based model design. There was only one ecological observation from a single monitoring site for some periods. This single-measurement issue may cause large discrepancies particularly when sampled site is not representative of the whole compartment. The

  18. Hydrodynamic Modeling of Nokoué Lake in Benin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Josué Zandagba

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Nokoué Lake is a complex ecosystem, the understanding of which requires control of physical processes that have occurred. For this, the Surface Water Modeling System (SMS hydrodynamic model was calibrated and validated on the water depth data. The results of these simulations show a good match between the simulated and observed data for bottom roughness and turbulent exchange coefficients, of 0.02 m−1/3·s and 20 m2/s respectively. Once the ability of the model to simulate the hydrodynamics of the lake is testified, the model is used to simulate water surface elevation, exchanged flows and velocities. The simulation shows that the tidal amplitude is maximum at the inlet of the channel and decreases gradually from the inlet towards the lagoon’s main body. The propagation of the tidal wave is characterized by the dephasing and the flattening of the amplitude tide, which increases as we move away from the channel. This dephasing is characterized by a high and low tides delay of about 1 or 4 h and also depends on the tide amplitude and location. The velocities inside the lake are very low and do not exceed 0.03 m/s. The highest are obtained at the entrance of the channel. In a flood period, in contrast with the low-water period, incoming flows are higher than outflows, reinforced by the amplitude of the tide. An average renewal time of the lake has been estimated and corresponds during a flood period to 30 days for an average amplitude tide and 26.3 days on a high amplitude tide. In a low water period it is 40.2 days for an average amplitude tide and 30 days for a high amplitude tide. From the results obtained, several measures must be taken into account for the rational management of the lake water resources. These include a dam construction at the lake upstream, to control the river flows, and the dredging of the channel to facilitate exchanges with the sea.

  19. Modeling Distribution and Abundance of Antarctic Baleen Whales Using Ships of Opportunity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rob Williams

    2006-06-01

    Full Text Available Information on animal abundance and distribution is at the cornerstone of many wildlife and conservation strategies. However, these data can be difficult and costly to obtain for cetacean species. The expense of sufficient ship time to conduct design-unbiased line transect surveys may be simply out of reach for researchers in many countries, which nonetheless grapple with problems of conservation of endangered species, by-catch of small cetaceans in commercial fisheries, and progression toward ecosystem-based fisheries management. Recently developed spatial modeling techniques show promise for estimating wildlife abundance using non-randomized surveys, but have yet to receive much field-testing in areas where designed surveys have also been conducted. Effort and sightings data were collected along 9 650 km of transects aboard ships of opportunity in the Southern Ocean during the austral summers of 2000-2001 and 2001-2002. Generalized additive models with generalized cross-validation were used to express heterogeneity of cetacean sightings as functions of spatial covariates. Models were used to map predicted densities and to estimate abundance of humpback, minke, and fin whales in the Drake Passage and along the Antarctic Peninsula. All species' distribution maps showed strong density gradients, which were robust to jackknife resampling when each of 14 trips was removed sequentially with replacement. Looped animations of model predictions of whale density illustrate uncertainty in distribution estimates in a way that is informative to non-scientists. The best abundance estimate for humpback whales was 1 829 (95% CI: 978-3 422. Abundance of fin whales was 4 487 (95% CI: 1 326-15 179 and minke whales was 1,544 (95% CI: 1,221-1,953. These estimates agreed roughly with those reported from a designed survey conducted in the region during the previous austral summer. These estimates assumed that all animals on the trackline were detected, but

  1. Public Lakes, Private Lakeshore: Modeling Protection of Native Aquatic Plants

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schroeder, Susan A.; Fulton, David C.

    2013-07-01

    Protection of native aquatic plants is an important proenvironmental behavior, because plant loss coupled with nutrient loading can produce changes in lake ecosystems. Removal of aquatic plants by lakeshore property owners is a diffuse behavior that may lead to cumulative impacts on lake ecosystems. This class of behavior is challenging to manage because collective impacts are not obvious to the actors. This paper distinguishes positive and negative beliefs about aquatic plants, in models derived from norm activation theory (Schwartz, Adv Exp Soc Psychol 10:221-279, 1977) and the theory of reasoned action (Fishbein and Ajzen, Belief, attitude, intention, and behavior: an introduction to theory and research, Addison-Wesley, Boston 1975), to examine protection of native aquatic plants by Minnesota lakeshore property owners. We clarify how positive and negative evaluations of native aquatic plants affect protection or removal of these plants. Results are based on a mail survey ( n = 3,115). Results suggest that positive evaluations of aquatic plants (i.e., as valuable to lake ecology) may not connect with the global attitudes and behavioral intentions that direct plant protection or removal. Lakeshore property owners' behavior related to aquatic plants may be driven more by tangible personal benefits derived from accessible, carefully managed lakeshore than intentional action taken to sustain lake ecosystems. The limited connection of positive evaluations of aquatic plants to global attitudes and behavioral intentions may reflect either lack of knowledge of what actions are needed to protect lake health and/or unwillingness to lose perceived benefits derived from lakeshore property.

  2. Public lakes, private lakeshore: Modeling protection of native aquatic plants

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schroeder, Susan A.; Fulton, David C.

    2013-01-01

    Protection of native aquatic plants is an important proenvironmental behavior, because plant loss coupled with nutrient loading can produce changes in lake ecosystems. Removal of aquatic plants by lakeshore property owners is a diffuse behavior that may lead to cumulative impacts on lake ecosystems. This class of behavior is challenging to manage because collective impacts are not obvious to the actors. This paper distinguishes positive and negative beliefs about aquatic plants, in models derived from norm activation theory (Schwartz, Adv Exp Soc Psychol 10:221–279, 1977) and the theory of reasoned action (Fishbein and Ajzen, Belief, attitude, intention, and behavior: an introduction to theory and research, Addison-Wesley, Boston 1975), to examine protection of native aquatic plants by Minnesota lakeshore property owners. We clarify how positive and negative evaluations of native aquatic plants affect protection or removal of these plants. Results are based on a mail survey (n = 3,115). Results suggest that positive evaluations of aquatic plants (i.e., as valuable to lake ecology) may not connect with the global attitudes and behavioral intentions that direct plant protection or removal. Lakeshore property owners’ behavior related to aquatic plants may be driven more by tangible personal benefits derived from accessible, carefully managed lakeshore than intentional action taken to sustain lake ecosystems. The limited connection of positive evaluations of aquatic plants to global attitudes and behavioral intentions may reflect either lack of knowledge of what actions are needed to protect lake health and/or unwillingness to lose perceived benefits derived from lakeshore property.

  3. Antarctic science

    Science.gov (United States)

    Summerhayes, Colin

    Once upon a time, dinosaurs roamed Antarctica and swam in its seas. Since then, life evolved as the climate cooled into the ice ages. Life will no doubt continue to evolve there as the globe now warms. But nowadays, humans are having a profound and direct effect on life in Antarctica, the sub-Antarctic islands, and the surrounding Southern Ocean, which are being invaded by a wide range of alien species including microbes, algae, fungi, bryophytes, land plants, invertebrates, fish, birds, and mammals.

  4. Modeling the bathymetry of Catahoula Lake: Specialized technology for wetland management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doyle, T.W.; Michot, T.C.; Wells, C.

    2002-01-01

    Catahoula Lake is the largest natural freshwater lake in Louisiana, covering more than 46 square miles (120 km2) (fig. 1). The lake is a principal stopover and wintering site for hundreds of thousands of migratory waterfowl and shorebirds. Scientists from the USGS National Wetlands Research Center are applying some of the research facility's specialties?wetland plant research, aerial and ground surveys, digital mapping, and computer modeling?to facilitate wetland management at Catahoula Lake.

  5. Antarctic analogs for Enceladus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murray, A. E.; Andersen, D. T.; McKay, C. P.

    2014-12-01

    Enceladus is a new world for Astrobiology. The Cassini discovery of the icy plume emanating from the South Polar region indicates an active world, where detection of water, organics, sodium, and nano-particle silica in the plume strongly suggests that the source is a subsurface salty ocean reservoir. Recent gravity data from Cassini confirms the presence of a regional sea extending north to 50°S. An ocean habitat under a thick ice cover is perhaps a recurring theme in the Outer Solar System, but what makes Enceladus unique is that the plume jetting out into space is carrying samples of this ocean. Therefore, through the study of Enceladus' plumes we can gain new insights not only of a possible habitable world in the Solar Systems, but also about the formation and evolution of other icy-satellites. Cassini has been able to fly through this plume - effectively sampling the ocean. It is time to plan for future missions that do more detailed analyses, possibly return samples back to Earth and search for evidence of life. To help prepare for such missions, the need for earth-based analog environments is essential for logistical, methodological (life detection) and theoretical development. We have undertaken studies of two terrestrial environments that are close analogs to Enceladus' ocean: Lake Vida and Lake Untersee - two ice-sealed Antarctic lakes that represent physical, chemical and possibly biological analogs for Enceladus. By studying the diverse biology and physical and chemical constraints to life in these two unique lakes we will begin to understand the potential habitability of Enceladus and other icy moons, including possible sources of nutrients and energy, which together with liquid water are the key ingredients for life. Analog research such as this will also enable us to develop and test new strategies to search for evidence of life on Enceladus.

  6. A fuzzy approach for modelling radionuclide in lake system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Desai, H.K.; Christian, R.A.; Banerjee, J.; Patra, A.K.

    2013-01-01

    Radioactive liquid waste is generated during operation and maintenance of Pressurised Heavy Water Reactors (PHWRs). Generally low level liquid waste is diluted and then discharged into the near by water-body through blowdown water discharge line as per the standard waste management practice. The effluents from nuclear installations are treated adequately and then released in a controlled manner under strict compliance of discharge criteria. An attempt was made to predict the concentration of 3 H released from Kakrapar Atomic Power Station at Ratania Regulator, about 2.5 km away from the discharge point, where human exposure is expected. Scarcity of data and complex geometry of the lake prompted the use of Heuristic approach. Under this condition, Fuzzy rule based approach was adopted to develop a model, which could predict 3 H concentration at Ratania Regulator. Three hundred data were generated for developing the fuzzy rules, in which input parameters were water flow from lake and 3 H concentration at discharge point. The Output was 3 H concentration at Ratania Regulator. These data points were generated by multiple regression analysis of the original data. Again by using same methodology hundred data were generated for the validation of the model, which were compared against the predicted output generated by using Fuzzy Rule based approach. Root Mean Square Error of the model came out to be 1.95, which showed good agreement by Fuzzy model of natural ecosystem. -- Highlights: • Uncommon approach (Fuzzy Rule Base) of modelling radionuclide dispersion in Lake. • Predicts 3 H released from Kakrapar Atomic Power Station at a point of human exposure. • RMSE of fuzzy model is 1.95, which means, it has well imitated natural ecosystem

  7. LEEM - a lake energy and evaporation model user's manual

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barry, P.J.; Robertson, E.

    1983-11-01

    LEEM is a simplified one-dimensional computer model of the energy budgets of lakes. It is intended to be used operationally to estimate evaporation rates averaged over several days using synoptic meteorological data with only the initial water temperatures being specified. These may usually be taken to be 4 deg. C a few days after spring break-up. This report describes the theoretical basis of the model and the algorithms by which these are converted to computer code. The code itself is included together with an exemplary set of data cards and the corresponding output

  8. Changes in the Global Hydrological Cycle: Lessons from Modeling Lake Levels at the Last Glacial Maximum

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lowry, D. P.; Morrill, C.

    2011-12-01

    Geologic evidence shows that lake levels in currently arid regions were higher and lakes in currently wet regions were lower during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Current hypotheses used to explain these lake level changes include the thermodynamic hypothesis, in which decreased tropospheric water vapor coupled with patterns of convergence and divergence caused dry areas to become more wet and vice versa, the dynamic hypothesis, in which shifts in the jet stream and Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) altered precipitation patterns, and the evaporation hypothesis, in which lake expansions are attributed to reduced evaporation in a colder climate. This modeling study uses the output of four climate models participating in phase 2 of the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP2) as input into a lake energy-balance model, in order to test the accuracy of the models and understand the causes of lake level changes. We model five lakes which include the Great Basin lakes, USA; Lake Petén Itzá, Guatemala; Lake Caçó, northern Brazil; Lake Tauca (Titicaca), Bolivia and Peru; and Lake Cari-Laufquen, Argentina. These lakes create a transect through the drylands of North America through the tropics and to the drylands of South America. The models accurately recreate LGM conditions in 14 out of 20 simulations, with the Great Basin lakes being the most robust and Lake Caçó being the least robust, due to model biases in portraying the ITCZ over South America. An analysis of the atmospheric moisture budget from one of the climate models shows that thermodynamic processes contribute most significantly to precipitation changes over the Great Basin, while dynamic processes are most significant for the other lakes. Lake Cari-Laufquen shows a lake expansion that is most likely attributed to reduced evaporation rather than changes in regional precipitation, suggesting that lake levels alone may not be the best indicator of how much precipitation this region

  9. Large-scale modeled contemporary and future water temperature estimates for 10774 Midwestern U.S. Lakes

    OpenAIRE

    Winslow, Luke A.; Hansen, Gretchen J.A.; Read, Jordan S; Notaro, Michael

    2017-01-01

    Climate change has already influenced lake temperatures globally, but understanding future change is challenging. The response of lakes to changing climate drivers is complex due to the nature of lake-atmosphere coupling, ice cover, and stratification. To better understand the diversity of lake responses to climate change and give managers insight on individual lakes, we modelled daily water temperature profiles for 10,774 lakes in Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin for contemporary (1979?201...

  10. Multiple climate regimes in an idealized lake-ice-atmosphere model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sugiyama, Noriyuki; Kravtsov, Sergey; Roebber, Paul

    2018-01-01

    In recent decades, the Laurentian Great Lakes have undergone rapid surface warming with the summertime trends substantially exceeding the warming rates of surrounding land. Warming of the deepest (Lake Superior) was the strongest, and that of the shallowest (Lake Erie)—the weakest of all lakes. To investigate the dynamics of accelerated lake warming, we considered single-column and multi-column thermodynamic lake-ice models coupled to an idealized two-layer atmosphere. The variable temperature of the upper atmospheric layer—a proxy for the large-scale atmospheric forcing—consisted, in the most general case, of a linear trend mimicking the global warming and atmospheric interannual variability, both on top of the prescribed seasonal cycle of the upper-air temperature. The atmospheric boundary layer of the coupled model exchanged heat with the lake and exhibited lateral diffusive heat transports between the adjacent atmospheric columns. In simpler single-column models, we find that, for a certain range of periodic atmospheric forcing, each lake possesses two stable equilibrium seasonal cycles, which we call "regimes"—with and without lake-ice occurrence in winter and with corresponding cold and warm temperatures in the following summer, respectively, all under an identical seasonally varying external forcing. Deeper lakes exhibit larger differences in their summertime surface water temperature between the warm and cold regimes, due to their larger thermal and dynamical inertia. The regime behavior of multi-column coupled models is similar but more complex, and in some cases, they admit more than two stable equilibrium seasonal cycles, with varying degrees of wintertime ice-cover. The simulated lake response to climate change in the presence of the atmospheric noise rationalizes the observed accelerated warming of the lakes, the correlation between wintertime ice cover and next summer's lake-surface temperature, as well as higher warming trends of the

  11. Modelling of hydrodynamics and mecury transport in lake Velenje. Part 2, Modelling and model verification

    OpenAIRE

    Kotnik, Jože; Žagar, Dušan; Rajar, Rudi; Horvat, Milena

    2004-01-01

    PCFLOW3D - a three-dimensional mathematical model that was developed at the Chair of Fluid Mechanics of the Faculty of Civil and Geodetic Engineering, University of Ljubljana, was used for hydrodynamic and Hg transport simulations in Lake Velenje. The model is fully non-linear and computes three velocity components, water elevation and pressure. Transport-dispersion equations for salinity and heat (and/or any pollutant) are further used to compute the distributions of these par...

  12. Towards a tipping point? Exploring the capacity to self-regulate Antarctic tourism using agent-based modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Student, J.R.; Amelung, B.; Lamers, M.A.J.

    2016-01-01

    Antarctica attracts tourists who want to explore its unique nature and landscapes. Antarctic tourism has rapidly grown since 1991 and is currently picking up again after the recent global economic downturn. Tourism activities are subject to the rules of the Antarctic Treaty System (ATS) and the

  13. Influence of Lake Malawi on regional climate from a double-nested regional climate model experiment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diallo, Ismaïla; Giorgi, Filippo; Stordal, Frode

    2017-07-01

    We evaluate the performance of the regional climate model (RCM) RegCM4 coupled to a one dimensional lake model for Lake Malawi (also known as Lake Nyasa in Tanzania and Lago Niassa in Mozambique) in simulating the main characteristics of rainfall and near surface air temperature patterns over the region. We further investigate the impact of the lake on the simulated regional climate. Two RCM simulations, one with and one without Lake Malawi, are performed for the period 1992-2008 at a grid spacing of 10 km by nesting the model within a corresponding 25 km resolution run ("mother domain") encompassing all Southern Africa. The performance of the model in simulating the mean seasonal patterns of near surface air temperature and precipitation is good compared with previous applications of this model. The temperature biases are generally less than 2.5 °C, while the seasonal cycle of precipitation over the region matches observations well. Moreover, the one-dimensional lake model reproduces fairly well the geographical pattern of observed (from satellite measurements) lake surface temperature as well as its mean month-to-month evolution. The Malawi Lake-effects on the moisture and atmospheric circulation of the surrounding region result in an increase of water vapor mixing ratio due to increased evaporation in the presence of the lake, which combines with enhanced rising motions and low-level moisture convergence to yield a significant precipitation increase over the lake and neighboring areas during the whole austral summer rainy season.

  14. A fuzzy approach for modelling radionuclide in lake system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Desai, H K; Christian, R A; Banerjee, J; Patra, A K

    2013-10-01

    Radioactive liquid waste is generated during operation and maintenance of Pressurised Heavy Water Reactors (PHWRs). Generally low level liquid waste is diluted and then discharged into the near by water-body through blowdown water discharge line as per the standard waste management practice. The effluents from nuclear installations are treated adequately and then released in a controlled manner under strict compliance of discharge criteria. An attempt was made to predict the concentration of (3)H released from Kakrapar Atomic Power Station at Ratania Regulator, about 2.5 km away from the discharge point, where human exposure is expected. Scarcity of data and complex geometry of the lake prompted the use of Heuristic approach. Under this condition, Fuzzy rule based approach was adopted to develop a model, which could predict (3)H concentration at Ratania Regulator. Three hundred data were generated for developing the fuzzy rules, in which input parameters were water flow from lake and (3)H concentration at discharge point. The Output was (3)H concentration at Ratania Regulator. These data points were generated by multiple regression analysis of the original data. Again by using same methodology hundred data were generated for the validation of the model, which were compared against the predicted output generated by using Fuzzy Rule based approach. Root Mean Square Error of the model came out to be 1.95, which showed good agreement by Fuzzy model of natural ecosystem. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Identity, ecology and ecophysiology of planktic green algae dominating in ice-covered lakes on James Ross Island (northeastern Antarctic Peninsula)

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Nedbalová, Linda; Mihál, M.; Kvíderová, Jana; Procházková, L.; Řezanka, Tomáš; Elster, Josef

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 21, č. 1 (2017), s. 187-200 ISSN 1433-4909 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA14-00227S Institutional support: RVO:67985939 ; RVO:61388971 Keywords : Monoraphidium * lakes * Antarktica Subject RIV: EF - Botanics; EE - Microbiology, Virology (MBU-M) OBOR OECD: Plant sciences, botany; Microbiology (MBU-M)

  16. Freshwater lakes of Ulu Peninsula, James Ross Island, north-east Antarctic Peninsula:origin, geomorphology and physical and chemical limnology

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Nedbalová, Linda; Nývlt, D.; Kopáček, Jiří; Šobr, M.; Elster, Josef

    2013-01-01

    Roč. 25, č. 3 (2013), s. 358-372 ISSN 0954-1020 R&D Projects: GA MŠk ME 945 Institutional support: RVO:67985939 ; RVO:60077344 Keywords : Conductivity * deglaciation * lake origin Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 1.417, year: 2013

  17. A generic dynamic model of Cs-137 turnover in Nordic lakes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nordlinder, Sture; Bergstroem, Ulla; Brittain, J.E.

    1997-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to design a generic model for long-term predictions of the Cs-137 concentration in lakes, emphasizing the secondary load of radiocaesium to the waterbody from lake sediments and drainage area. If the concentration of Cs-137 in lake waters can be accurately predicted, estimates of concentration in fish will be more reliable. The inflow from the drainage area is estimated from the fraction of outflow areas, whereas resuspension from lake sediments is estimated from the maximum depth and surface area. The model is based on compartment theory. Modelling results for six lakes are presented. There was very good agreement between model results and observed values, for both water and lake sediments, although there were minor discrepancies for sediments in the deepest lakes. Analyses of the model results showed that, for deep lakes, the main contribution maintaining the concentration in lake waters is inflows from the drainage area, whereas for shallow lakes, the main factor is resuspension for caesium rich sediments. (Author)

  18. Does lake size matter? Combining morphology and process modeling to examine the contribution of lake classes to population-scale processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winslow, Luke A.; Read, Jordan S.; Hanson, Paul C.; Stanley, Emily H.

    2014-01-01

    With lake abundances in the thousands to millions, creating an intuitive understanding of the distribution of morphology and processes in lakes is challenging. To improve researchers’ understanding of large-scale lake processes, we developed a parsimonious mathematical model based on the Pareto distribution to describe the distribution of lake morphology (area, perimeter and volume). While debate continues over which mathematical representation best fits any one distribution of lake morphometric characteristics, we recognize the need for a simple, flexible model to advance understanding of how the interaction between morphometry and function dictates scaling across large populations of lakes. These models make clear the relative contribution of lakes to the total amount of lake surface area, volume, and perimeter. They also highlight the critical thresholds at which total perimeter, area and volume would be evenly distributed across lake size-classes have Pareto slopes of 0.63, 1 and 1.12, respectively. These models of morphology can be used in combination with models of process to create overarching “lake population” level models of process. To illustrate this potential, we combine the model of surface area distribution with a model of carbon mass accumulation rate. We found that even if smaller lakes contribute relatively less to total surface area than larger lakes, the increasing carbon accumulation rate with decreasing lake size is strong enough to bias the distribution of carbon mass accumulation towards smaller lakes. This analytical framework provides a relatively simple approach to upscaling morphology and process that is easily generalizable to other ecosystem processes.

  19. Distributional records of Antarctic and sub-Antarctic Ophiuroidea from samples curated at the Italian National Antarctic Museum (MNA: check-list update of the group in the Terra Nova Bay area (Ross Sea and launch of the MNA 3D model ‘virtual gallery’

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matteo Cecchetto

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available The distributional records of Ophiuroidea stored at the Italian National Antarctic Museum (MNA, Section of Genoa are presented, corresponding to 1595 individuals that belong to 35 species and 17 genera. Specimens were collected in 106 different sampling stations at depths ranging from 21 to 1652 m in the framework of 14 Antarctic expeditions to the Ross Sea, one to the Antarctic Peninsula, and one to the Falkland Islands (Islas Malvinas. Three species, Amphiura joubini Koehler, 1912, Amphiura (Amphiura angularis Lyman, 1879, and Ophiura flexibilis (Koehler, 1911, are reported as new records for the Terra Nova Bay area, whose check-list of species increases from 15 to 18 species. The determination of these three new records was based both on morphological identification and molecular analyses (COI barcoding. Some of the genetically characterised specimens were also documented through photogrammetry and micro-computed tomography and represent the first bulk of 3D models that will be available through the MNA and Sketchfab websites, both for research and educational purposes.

  20. Distributional records of Antarctic and sub-Antarctic Ophiuroidea from samples curated at the Italian National Antarctic Museum (MNA): check-list update of the group in the Terra Nova Bay area (Ross Sea) and launch of the MNA 3D model ‘virtual gallery’

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cecchetto, Matteo; Alvaro, Maria Chiara; Ghiglione, Claudio; Guzzi, Alice; Mazzoli, Claudio; Piazza, Paola; Schiaparelli, Stefano

    2017-01-01

    Abstract The distributional records of Ophiuroidea stored at the Italian National Antarctic Museum (MNA, Section of Genoa) are presented, corresponding to 1595 individuals that belong to 35 species and 17 genera. Specimens were collected in 106 different sampling stations at depths ranging from 21 to 1652 m in the framework of 14 Antarctic expeditions to the Ross Sea, one to the Antarctic Peninsula, and one to the Falkland Islands (Islas Malvinas). Three species, Amphiura joubini Koehler, 1912, Amphiura (Amphiura) angularis Lyman, 1879, and Ophiura flexibilis (Koehler, 1911), are reported as new records for the Terra Nova Bay area, whose check-list of species increases from 15 to 18 species. The determination of these three new records was based both on morphological identification and molecular analyses (COI barcoding). Some of the genetically characterised specimens were also documented through photogrammetry and micro-computed tomography and represent the first bulk of 3D models that will be available through the MNA and Sketchfab websites, both for research and educational purposes. PMID:29118612

  1. Distributional records of Antarctic and sub-Antarctic Ophiuroidea from samples curated at the Italian National Antarctic Museum (MNA): check-list update of the group in the Terra Nova Bay area (Ross Sea) and launch of the MNA 3D model 'virtual gallery'.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cecchetto, Matteo; Alvaro, Maria Chiara; Ghiglione, Claudio; Guzzi, Alice; Mazzoli, Claudio; Piazza, Paola; Schiaparelli, Stefano

    2017-01-01

    The distributional records of Ophiuroidea stored at the Italian National Antarctic Museum (MNA, Section of Genoa) are presented, corresponding to 1595 individuals that belong to 35 species and 17 genera. Specimens were collected in 106 different sampling stations at depths ranging from 21 to 1652 m in the framework of 14 Antarctic expeditions to the Ross Sea, one to the Antarctic Peninsula, and one to the Falkland Islands (Islas Malvinas). Three species, Amphiura joubini Koehler, 1912, Amphiura (Amphiura) angularis Lyman, 1879, and Ophiura flexibilis (Koehler, 1911), are reported as new records for the Terra Nova Bay area, whose check-list of species increases from 15 to 18 species. The determination of these three new records was based both on morphological identification and molecular analyses (COI barcoding). Some of the genetically characterised specimens were also documented through photogrammetry and micro-computed tomography and represent the first bulk of 3D models that will be available through the MNA and Sketchfab websites, both for research and educational purposes.

  2. Integration of the MODFLOW Lake Package in the FREEWAT GIS hydrogeological modelling environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neumann, Jakob; Cannata, Massimiliano; Cardoso, Mirko; Rossetto, Rudy; Foglia, Laura; Borsi, Iacopo

    2017-04-01

    The FREEWAT GIS environment for hydrogeological modelling incorporates the MODFLOW Lake Package to simulate surface water- groundwater interaction using state of the art techniques. The Lake package allows for the simulation of hydraulic interaction between a lake and groundwater so that the effects of the changes in the water level of one of the two water bodies is calculated on the other. Through this addition, the QGIS plugin allows greater consideration of surface water bodies for water resources management. Groundwater resources can be strongly qualitatively and quantitatively affected by surface water bodies that they interact with. Existing QGIS tools and structures can be used with the lake package tools of FREEWAT to specify spatial and temporal, constant and variable lake properties within MODFLOW capabilities. FREEWAT supports steady state and transient simulations using the lake package, as well as specification of precipitation, evaporating, extraction and surface runoff to lakes.

  3. Thermal Pollution Mathematical Model. Volume 2; Verification of One-Dimensional Numerical Model at Lake Keowee

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, S. S.; Sengupta, S.; Nwadike, E. V.

    1980-01-01

    A one dimensional model for studying the thermal dynamics of cooling lakes was developed and verified. The model is essentially a set of partial differential equations which are solved by finite difference methods. The model includes the effects of variation of area with depth, surface heating due to solar radiation absorbed at the upper layer, and internal heating due to the transmission of solar radiation to the sub-surface layers. The exchange of mechanical energy between the lake and the atmosphere is included through the coupling of thermal diffusivity and wind speed. The effects of discharge and intake by power plants are also included. The numerical model was calibrated by applying it to Cayuga Lake. The model was then verified through a long term simulation using Lake Keowee data base. The comparison between measured and predicted vertical temperature profiles for the nine years is good. The physical limnology of Lake Keowee is presented through a set of graphical representations of the measured data base.

  4. Modelling and water yield assessment of Lake Sibhayi | Smithers ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A yield analysis of simulated results with historical developments in the catchment for the 65-year period of observed climate record was undertaken using both a fixed minimum allowable lake level or a maximum drop from a reference lake level as criteria for system failure. Results from simulating lake levels using the ...

  5. Representation of the Great Lakes in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Version 5

    Science.gov (United States)

    Briley, L.; Rood, R. B.

    2017-12-01

    The U.S. Great Lakes play a significant role in modifying regional temperatures and precipitation, and as the lakes change in response to a warming climate (i.e., warmer surface water temperatures, decreased ice cover, etc) lake-land-atmosphere dynamics are affected. Because the lakes modify regional weather and are a driver of regional climate change, understanding how they are represented in climate models is important to the reliability of model based information for the region. As part of the Great Lakes Integrated Sciences + Assessments (GLISA) Ensemble project, a major effort is underway to evaluate the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project version (CMIP) 5 global climate models for how well they physically represent the Great Lakes and lake-effects. The CMIP models were chosen because they are a primary source of information in many products developed for decision making (i.e., National Climate Assessment, downscaled future climate projections, etc.), yet there is very little description of how well they represent the lakes. This presentation will describe the results of our investigation of if and how the Great Lakes are represented in the CMIP5 models.

  6. Application of a lake-watershed model for the determination of water balance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crowe, Allan S.; Schwartz, Franklin W.

    1985-10-01

    A lumped-parameter, lake-watershed response model has been developed for the Wabamun Lake system and used to assess the role of groundwater in the water balance of the lake. Wabamun Lake, located in central Alberta, Canada, has a surface area of 78 km 2. The surrounding watershed has an area of 263 km 2 and is covered by a thin layer (0-15 m) of glacial sediments, which in turn overlie bedrock deposits of sandstone, siltstone, shale and coal. Good agreement has been achieved between the monthly observed and the monthly predicted lake stages for a 26 yr record, with a maximum difference of less than 0.25 m. In addition, the simulation of lake chemistry, including specific conductance, Cl - and K +, is in good agreement with the observed data. On the basis on the simulations, the main hydrologic components contributing water to Wabamun Lake are direct precipitation (43.1-59.8%) and surface-water inflow (36.8-48.3%). Outflow from the lake occurs primarily through evaporation (46.5-57.5%) and the groundwater system (35.0-43.5%). Groundwater discharging to Wabamun Lake (1.3-8.6%) and surface water draining from the lake (0.0-18.5%) are minor components in the water balance of Wabamun Lake.

  7. Lake Representations in Global Climate Models: An End-User Perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rood, R. B.; Briley, L.; Steiner, A.; Wells, K.

    2017-12-01

    The weather and climate in the Great Lakes region of the United States and Canada are strongly influenced by the lakes. Within global climate models, lakes are incorporated in many ways. If one is interested in quantitative climate information for the Great Lakes, then it is a first principle requirement that end-users of climate model simulation data, whether scientists or practitioners, need to know if and how lakes are incorporated into models. We pose the basic question, how are lakes represented in CMIP models? Despite significant efforts by the climate community to document and publish basic information about climate models, it is unclear how to answer the question about lake representations? With significant knowledge of the practice of the field, then a reasonable starting point is to use the ES-DOC Comparator (https://compare.es-doc.org/ ). Once at this interface to model information, the end-user is faced with the need for more knowledge about the practice and culture of the discipline. For example, lakes are often categorized as a type of land, a counterintuitive concept. In some models, though, lakes are specified in ocean models. There is little evidence and little confidence that the information obtained through this process is complete or accurate. In fact, it is verifiably not accurate. This experience, then, motivates identifying and finding either human experts or technical documentation for each model. The conclusion from this exercise is that it can take months or longer to provide a defensible answer to if and how lakes are represented in climate models. Our experience with lake finding is that this is not a unique experience. This talk documents our experience and explores barriers we have identified and strategies for reducing those barriers.

  8. LakeMetabolizer: An R package for estimating lake metabolism from free-water oxygen using diverse statistical models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winslow, Luke; Zwart, Jacob A.; Batt, Ryan D.; Dugan, Hilary; Woolway, R. Iestyn; Corman, Jessica; Hanson, Paul C.; Read, Jordan S.

    2016-01-01

    Metabolism is a fundamental process in ecosystems that crosses multiple scales of organization from individual organisms to whole ecosystems. To improve sharing and reuse of published metabolism models, we developed LakeMetabolizer, an R package for estimating lake metabolism from in situ time series of dissolved oxygen, water temperature, and, optionally, additional environmental variables. LakeMetabolizer implements 5 different metabolism models with diverse statistical underpinnings: bookkeeping, ordinary least squares, maximum likelihood, Kalman filter, and Bayesian. Each of these 5 metabolism models can be combined with 1 of 7 models for computing the coefficient of gas exchange across the air–water interface (k). LakeMetabolizer also features a variety of supporting functions that compute conversions and implement calculations commonly applied to raw data prior to estimating metabolism (e.g., oxygen saturation and optical conversion models). These tools have been organized into an R package that contains example data, example use-cases, and function documentation. The release package version is available on the Comprehensive R Archive Network (CRAN), and the full open-source GPL-licensed code is freely available for examination and extension online. With this unified, open-source, and freely available package, we hope to improve access and facilitate the application of metabolism in studies and management of lentic ecosystems.

  9. Modelling of seasonal and long-term trends in lake salinity in southwestern Victoria, Australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yihdego, Yohannes; Webb, John

    2012-12-15

    In southwestern Victoria a large number of lakes are scattered across the volcanic plains; many have problems with increasing salinity. To identify the hydrologic components behind this problem, three lakes, Burrumbeet, Linlithgow and Buninjon, were selected for detailed water and salt budget modelling using monthly values of rainfall, evaporation, surface inflow and outflow, and groundwater inflow and outflow (using the new modified difference method developed in this study). On average, rainfall begins to exceed evaporation with the onset of winter rainfall in May, so lake levels rise and lake salinities decline. The modelled lakes have become more saline over the last decade, a time of drought with below average rainfall, and all eventually dried out, their salinities rising to very high levels as they shallowed. Lake Burrumbeet is generally much less saline than Lakes Linlithgow and Buninjon, because it has substantial groundwater outflow, probably due to leakage through one or more volcanic necks. This limits the amount of time the lake water is subject to evaporation, and also allows significant salt export. The other lakes do not leak. The modelling indicates that when the lakes dry out, salt is lost from the lake-beds, probably due to wind deflation of salt crusts and leakage into the underlying groundwater. The removal of salt during drying-out phases resets the salinity of the lakes, limiting their ability to become more saline with time. Drying-out phases may therefore be essential in preventing the increased salinisation of lakes and wetland environments across the volcanic plains. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Optimal management of ecosystem services with pollution traps : The lake model revisited

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Zeeuw, Aart; Grass, Dieter; Xepapadeas, Anastasios

    2017-01-01

    In this paper, optimal management of the lake model and common-property outcomes are reconsidered when the lake model is extended with the slowly changing variable. New optimal trajectories are found that were hidden in the simplified analysis. Furthermore, it is shown that two Nash equilibria may

  11. ANALYSIS OF MERCURY IN VERMONT AND NEW HAMPSHIRE LAKES: EVALUATION OF THE REGIONAL MERCURY CYCLING MODEL

    Science.gov (United States)

    An evaluation of the Regional Mercury Cycling Model (R-MCM, a steady-state fate and transport model used to simulate mercury concentrations in lakes) is presented based on its application to a series of 91 lakes in Vermont and New Hampshire. Visual and statistical analyses are pr...

  12. Making eco logic and models work : An integrative approach to lake ecosystem modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kuiper, Jan Jurjen

    2016-01-01

    Dynamical ecosystem models are important tools that can help ecologists understand complex systems, and turn understanding into predictions of how these systems respond to external changes. This thesis revolves around PCLake, an integrated ecosystem model of shallow lakes that is used by both

  13. A Model Study on the Role of Wetland Zones in Lake Eutrophication and Restoration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J.H. Janse

    2001-01-01

    Full Text Available Shallow lakes respond in different ways to changes in nutrient loading (nitrogen, phosphorus. These lakes may be in two different states: turbid, dominated by phytoplankton, and clear, dominated by submerged macrophytes. Both states are self-stabilizing; a shift from turbid to clear occurs at much lower nutrient loading than a shift in the opposite direction. These critical loading levels vary among lakes and are dependent on morphological, biological, and lake management factors. This paper focuses on the role of wetland zones. Several processes are important: transport and settling of suspended solids, denitrification, nutrient uptake by marsh vegetation (increasing nutrient retention, and improvement of habitat conditions for predatory fish. A conceptual model of a lake with surrounding reed marsh was made, including these relations. The lake-part of this model consists of an existing lake model named PCLake[1]. The relative area of lake and marsh can be varied. Model calculations revealed that nutrient concentrations are lowered by the presence of a marsh area, and that the critical loading level for a shift to clear water is increased. This happens only if the mixing rate of the lake and marsh water is adequate. In general, the relative marsh area should be quite large in order to have a substantial effect. Export of nutrients can be enhanced by harvesting of reed vegetation. Optimal predatory fish stock contributes to water quality improvement, but only if combined with favourable loading and physical conditions. Within limits, the presence of a wetland zone around lakes may thus increase the ability of lakes to cope with nutrients and enhance restoration. Validation of the conclusions in real lakes is recommended, a task hampered by the fact that, in the Netherlands, many wetland zones have disappeared in the past.

  14. Modeling species invasions in Ecopath with Ecosim: an evaluation using Laurentian Great Lakes models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Langseth, Brian J.; Rogers, Mark; Zhang, Hongyan

    2012-01-01

    Invasive species affect the structure and processes of ecosystems they invade. Invasive species have been particularly relevant to the Laurentian Great Lakes, where they have played a part in both historical and recent changes to Great Lakes food webs and the fisheries supported therein. There is increased interest in understanding the effects of ecosystem changes on fisheries within the Great Lakes, and ecosystem models provide an essential tool from which this understanding can take place. A commonly used model for exploring fisheries management questions within an ecosystem context is the Ecopath with Ecosim (EwE) modeling software. Incorporating invasive species into EwE models is a challenging process, and descriptions and comparisons of methods for modeling species invasions are lacking. We compared four methods for incorporating invasive species into EwE models for both Lake Huron and Lake Michigan based on the ability of each to reproduce patterns in observed data time series. The methods differed in whether invasive species biomass was forced in the model, the initial level of invasive species biomass at the beginning of time dynamic simulations, and the approach to cause invasive species biomass to increase at the time of invasion. The overall process of species invasion could be reproduced by all methods, but fits to observed time series varied among the methods and models considered. We recommend forcing invasive species biomass when model objectives are to understand ecosystem impacts in the past and when time series of invasive species biomass are available. Among methods where invasive species time series were not forced, mediating the strength of predator–prey interactions performed best for the Lake Huron model, but worse for the Lake Michigan model. Starting invasive species biomass at high values and then artificially removing biomass until the time of invasion performed well for both models, but was more complex than starting invasive species

  15. The influence of the Calbuco eruption on the 2015 Antarctic ozone hole in a fully coupled chemistry-climate model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ivy, Diane J.; Solomon, Susan; Kinnison, Doug; Mills, Michael J.; Schmidt, Anja; Neely, Ryan R.

    2017-03-01

    Recent research has demonstrated that the concentrations of anthropogenic halocarbons have decreased in response to the worldwide phaseout of ozone depleting substances. Yet in 2015 the Antarctic ozone hole reached a historical record daily average size in October. Model simulations with specified dynamics and temperatures based on a reanalysis suggested that the record size was likely due to the eruption of Calbuco but did not allow for fully coupled dynamical or thermal feedbacks. We present simulations of the impact of the 2015 Calbuco eruption on the stratosphere using the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model with interactive dynamics and temperatures. Comparisons of the interactive and specified dynamics simulations indicate that chemical ozone depletion due to volcanic aerosols played a key role in establishing the record-sized ozone hole of October 2015. The analysis of an ensemble of interactive simulations with and without volcanic aerosols suggests that the forced response to the eruption of Calbuco was an increase in the size of the ozone hole by 4.5 × 106 km2.

  16. Lake St. Clair: Storm Wave and Water Level Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-06-01

    moving synoptic , and meso-scale meteorological events as they crossed Lake Michigan. It was observed at the onset of this study that Lake St...significant wave height, and a negative bias in the wave period estimates. All of these results present a different picture than the previous tests. As in...simulation forcing parameters:  Input the ADCIRC mesh (fort.14) and the water level adjustment to the synoptic lake level (fort.13) for a specific storm

  17. Acidification and recovery at mountain lakes in Central Alps assessed by the MAGIC model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michela ROGORA

    2004-02-01

    Full Text Available The dynamic model MAGIC was calibrated and applied to 84 lakes in Central Alps to predict the response of water chemistry to different scenarios of atmospheric deposition of S and N compounds. Selected lakes were representative of a wide range of chemical characteristics and of sensitivity to acidification. The most sensitive lakes have already shown in the latest years signs of recovery in terms of pH and ANC. The model well captured the main trends in lake chemical data. According to the model forecast, recovery at sensitive lakes will continue in the next decades under the hypothesis of a further decrease of acidic input from the atmosphere. Results clearly demonstrated the benefits of achieving the emission reductions in both S and N compounds agreed under the Gothenburg Protocol. Nevertheless, besides the achieved reduction of SO4 2- deposition from the peak levels of the 80s, also N deposition should be reduced in the near future to protect alpine lakes from further acidification. The condition of lake catchments with regard to N saturation will probably be the dominant factor driving recovery extent. Beside atmospheric deposition, other factors proved to be important in determining long-term changes in surface water chemistry. Climate warming in particular affects weathering processes in lake catchments and dynamics of the N cycle. Including other factors specific to the alpine area, such as dust deposition and climate change, may improve the fit of experimental data by the model and the reliability of model forecast.

  18. Collaborative modelling and integrated decision support system analysis of a developed terminal lake basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niswonger, Richard G.; Allander, Kip K.; Jeton, Anne E.

    2014-01-01

    A terminal lake basin in west-central Nevada, Walker Lake, has undergone drastic change over the past 90 yrs due to upstream water use for agriculture. Decreased inflows to the lake have resulted in 100 km2 decrease in lake surface area and a total loss of fisheries due to salinization. The ecologic health of Walker Lake is of great concern as the lake is a stopover point on the Pacific route for migratory birds from within and outside the United States. Stakeholders, water institutions, and scientists have engaged in collaborative modeling and the development of a decision support system that is being used to develop and analyze management change options to restore the lake. Here we use an integrated management and hydrologic model that relies on state-of-the-art simulation capabilities to evaluate the benefits of using integrated hydrologic models as components of a decision support system. Nonlinear feedbacks among climate, surface-water and groundwater exchanges, and water use present challenges for simulating realistic outcomes associated with management change. Integrated management and hydrologic modeling provides a means of simulating benefits associated with management change in the Walker River basin where drastic changes in the hydrologic landscape have taken place over the last century. Through the collaborative modeling process, stakeholder support is increasing and possibly leading to management change options that result in reductions in Walker Lake salt concentrations, as simulated by the decision support system.

  19. Observation and modelling of fog at Cold Lake, Alberta, Canada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Di; Boudala, Faisal; Weng, Wensong; Taylor, Peter A.; Gultepe, Ismail; Isaac, George A.

    2017-04-01

    Climatological data indicate that the Cold Lake, Alberta airport location (CYOD, 54.4°N, 110.3°W) is often affected by various low cloud and fog conditions. In order to better understand these conditions, Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC), in cooperation with the Canadian Department of National Defense (DND), installed a number of specialized instruments. The ground based instruments include a Vaisala PWD22 present weather sensor, a multi-channel microwave profiling radiometer (MWR) and a Jenoptik CHM15k ceilometer. The focus here will be on understanding the micro-physical and dynamical conditions within the boundary layer, on the surface and aloft that lead to the occurrence of fog using a high resolution 1-D boundary-layer model, ground based measurements, Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) data and predictions from the Canadian 2.5 km resolution NWP model (HRDPS - High Resolution Deterministic Prediction System ). Details of the 1-D model will be presented. The condensation of water vapour into droplets and the formation of fog in the Earth's atmospheric boundary layer can involve a complex balance between vertical turbulent mixing of heat and water vapour, cloud micro-physical processes and radiative transfers of heat. It is a phenomenon which has been studied for many years in a variety of contexts. On land, surface cooling via long wave radiation at night is often the trigger and a number of 1-D (one dimensional, height and time dependent) radiative fog models have been developed. Our turbulence closure includes the turbulent kinetic energy equation but we prefer to specify a height, roughness Rossby number and local stability dependent, "master" length scale instead of somewhat empirical dissipation or similar equations. Results show that low cloud and fog can develop, depending on initial profiles of wind, temperature and mixing ratio, land surface interactions and solar radiation. Preliminary analysis of Cold Lake

  20. Modeling Lake Storage Dynamics to support Arctic Boreal Vulnerability Experiment (ABoVE)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vimal, S.; Lettenmaier, D. P.; Smith, L. C.; Smith, S.; Bowling, L. C.; Pavelsky, T.

    2017-12-01

    The Arctic and Boreal Zone (ABZ) of Canada and Alaska includes vast areas of permafrost, lakes, and wetlands. Permafrost thawing in this area is expected to increase due to the projected rise of temperature caused by climate change. Over the long term, this may reduce overall surface water area, but in the near-term, the opposite is being observed, with rising paludification (lake/wetland expansion). One element of NASA's ABoVE field experiment is observations of lake and wetland extent and surface elevations using NASA's AirSWOT airborne interferometric radar, accompanied by a high-resolution camera. One use of the WSE retrievals will be to constrain model estimates of lake storage dynamics. Here, we compare predictions using the lake dynamics algorithm within the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) land surface scheme. The VIC lake algorithm includes representation of sub-grid topography, where the depth and area of seasonally-flooded areas are modeled as a function of topographic wetness index, basin area, and slope. The topography data used is from a new global digital elevation model, MERIT-DEM. We initially set up VIC at sites with varying permafrost conditions (i.e., no permafrost, discontinuous, continuous) in Saskatoon and Yellowknife, Canada, and Toolik Lake, Alaska. We constrained the uncalibrated model with the WSE at the time of the first ABoVE flight, and quantified the model's ability to predict WSE and ΔWSE during the time of the second flight. Finally, we evaluated the sensitivity of the VIC-lakes model and compared the three permafrost conditions. Our results quantify the sensitivity of surface water to permafrost state across the target sites. Furthermore, our evaluation of the lake modeling framework contributes to the modeling and mapping framework for lake and reservoir storage change evaluation globally as part of the SWOT mission, planned for launch in 2021.

  1. Consequences of gas flux model choice on the interpretation of metabolic balance across 15 lakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dugan, Hilary; Woolway, R. Iestyn; Santoso, Arianto; Corman, Jessica; Jaimes, Aline; Nodine, Emily; Patil, Vijay; Zwart, Jacob A.; Brentrup, Jennifer A.; Hetherington, Amy; Oliver, Samantha K.; Read, Jordan S.; Winters, Kirsten; Hanson, Paul; Read, Emily; Winslow, Luke; Weathers, Kathleen

    2016-01-01

    Ecosystem metabolism and the contribution of carbon dioxide from lakes to the atmosphere can be estimated from free-water gas measurements through the use of mass balance models, which rely on a gas transfer coefficient (k) to model gas exchange with the atmosphere. Theoretical and empirically based models of krange in complexity from wind-driven power functions to complex surface renewal models; however, model choice is rarely considered in most studies of lake metabolism. This study used high-frequency data from 15 lakes provided by the Global Lake Ecological Observatory Network (GLEON) to study how model choice of kinfluenced estimates of lake metabolism and gas exchange with the atmosphere. We tested 6 models of k on lakes chosen to span broad gradients in surface area and trophic states; a metabolism model was then fit to all 6 outputs of k data. We found that hourly values for k were substantially different between models and, at an annual scale, resulted in significantly different estimates of lake metabolism and gas exchange with the atmosphere.

  2. Compilation of watershed models for tributaries to the Great Lakes, United States, as of 2010, and identification of watersheds for future modeling for the Great Lakes Restoration Initiative

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coon, William F.; Murphy, Elizabeth A.; Soong, David T.; Sharpe, Jennifer B.

    2011-01-01

    As part of the Great Lakes Restoration Initiative (GLRI) during 2009–10, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) compiled a list of existing watershed models that had been created for tributaries within the United States that drain to the Great Lakes. Established Federal programs that are overseen by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) are responsible for most of the existing watershed models for specific tributaries. The NOAA Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory (GLERL) uses the Large Basin Runoff Model to provide data for the management of water levels in the Great Lakes by estimating United States and Canadian inflows to the Great Lakes from 121 large watersheds. GLERL also simulates streamflows in 34 U.S. watersheds by a grid-based model, the Distributed Large Basin Runoff Model. The NOAA National Weather Service uses the Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting model to predict flows at river forecast sites. The USACE created or funded the creation of models for at least 30 tributaries to the Great Lakes to better understand sediment erosion, transport, and aggradation processes that affect Federal navigation channels and harbors. Many of the USACE hydrologic models have been coupled with hydrodynamic and sediment-transport models that simulate the processes in the stream and harbor near the mouth of the modeled tributary. Some models either have been applied or have the capability of being applied across the entire Great Lakes Basin; they are (1) the SPAtially Referenced Regressions On Watershed attributes (SPARROW) model, which was developed by the USGS; (2) the High Impact Targeting (HIT) and Digital Watershed models, which were developed by the Institute of Water Research at Michigan State University; (3) the Long-Term Hydrologic Impact Assessment (L–THIA) model, which was developed by researchers at Purdue University; and (4) the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model, which was

  3. Predictive habitat modelling of humpback (Megaptera novaeangliae) and Antarctic minke (Balaenoptera bonaerensis) whales in the Southern Ocean as a planning tool for seismic surveys

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bombosch, Annette; Zitterbart, Daniel P.; Van Opzeeland, Ilse; Frickenhaus, Stephan; Burkhardt, Elke; Wisz, Mary S.; Boebel, Olaf

    2014-09-01

    Seismic surveys are frequently a matter of concern regarding their potentially negative impacts on marine mammals. In the Southern Ocean, which provides a critical habitat for several endangered cetacean species, seismic research activities are undertaken at a circumpolar scale. In order to minimize impacts of these surveys, pre-cruise planning requires detailed, spatio-temporally resolved knowledge on the likelihood of encountering these species in the survey area. In this publication we present predictive habitat modelling as a potential tool to support decisions for survey planning. We associated opportunistic sightings (2005-2011) of humpback (Megaptera novaeangliae, N=93) and Antarctic minke whales (Balaenoptera bonaerensis, N=139) with a range of static and dynamic environmental variables. A maximum entropy algorithm (Maxent) was used to develop habitat models and to calculate daily basinwide/circumpolar prediction maps to evaluate how species-specific habitat conditions evolved throughout the spring and summer months. For both species, prediction maps revealed considerable changes in habitat suitability throughout the season. Suitable humpback whale habitat occurred predominantly in ice-free areas, expanding southwards with the retreating sea ice edge, whereas suitable Antarctic minke whale habitat was consistently predicted within sea ice covered areas. Daily, large-scale prediction maps provide a valuable tool to design layout and timing of seismic surveys as they allow the identification and consideration of potential spatio-temporal hotspots to minimize potential impacts of seismic surveys on Antarctic cetacean species.

  4. Evolution of Lake Chad Basin hydrology during the mid-Holocene: A preliminary approach from lake to climate modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sepulchre, Pierre; Schuster, Mathieu; Ramstein, Gilles; Krinnezr, Gerhard; Girard, Jean-Francois; Vignaud, Patrick; Brunet, Michel

    2008-03-01

    During the mid-Holocene (6000 yr Before Present, hereafter yr BP) the Chad Basin was occupied by a large endoreic lake, called Lake Mega-Chad. The existence of this lake at that time seems linked to increased monsoonal moisture supply to the Sahel and the Sahara, which in turn was probably ultimately caused by variations in the orbital forcing and higher temperature gradients between ocean and continent. This study provides a synthesis of several works carried out on the Lake Chad Basin and analyses the results of a simulation of the mid-Holocene climate with an Atmosphere General Circulation Model (LMDZ for Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique, IPSL Paris), with emphasis on the possible conditions leading to the existence of Lake Mega-Chad. The aim is to define the best diagnostics to understand which mechanisms lead to the existence of the large lake. This paper is the first step of an ongoing work that intends to understand the environmental conditions that this part of Africa experienced during the Upper Miocene (ca. 7 Ma BP), an epoch that was contemporaneous with the first known hominids. Indeed, early hominids of Lake Chad Basin, Australopithecus bahrelghazali [ Brunet, M., et al., 1995. The first australopithecine 2500 kilometers west of the Rift-Valley (Chad). Nature, 378(6554): 273-275] and Sahelanthropus tchadensis [Brunet, M., et al., 2002. A new hominid from the Upper Miocene of Chad, central Africa. Nature, 418(6894): 145-151; Brunet, M., et al., 2005. New material of the earliest hominid from the Upper Miocene of Chad. Nature, 434(7034): 752-755] are systematically associated with wet episodes that are documented for 7 Ma BP [Vignaud, P., et al., 2002. Geology and palaeontology of the Upper Miocene Toros-Menalla hominid locality, Chad. Nature, 418(6894): 152-155] and testified by extended lacustrine deposits (diatomites, pelites, various aquatic fauna). Because the mid-Holocene was the last such mega-lake episode, our aim here is to assess the

  5. ALBEDO MODELS FOR SNOW AND ICE ON A FRESHWATER LAKE. (R824801)

    Science.gov (United States)

    AbstractSnow and ice albedo measurements were taken over a freshwater lake in Minnesota for three months during the winter of 1996¯1997 for use in a winter lake water quality model. The mean albedo of new snow was measured as 0.83±0.028, while the...

  6. Large-scale dynamical influence of a gravity wave generated over the Antarctic Peninsula – regional modelling and budget analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    JOEL Arnault

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available The case study of a mountain wave triggered by the Antarctic Peninsula on 6 October 2005, which has already been documented in the literature, is chosen here to quantify the associated gravity wave forcing on the large-scale flow, with a budget analysis of the horizontal wind components and horizontal kinetic energy. In particular, a numerical simulation using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF model is compared to a control simulation with flat orography to separate the contribution of the mountain wave from that of other synoptic processes of non-orographic origin. The so-called differential budgets of horizontal wind components and horizontal kinetic energy (after subtracting the results from the simulation without orography are then averaged horizontally and vertically in the inner domain of the simulation to quantify the mountain wave dynamical influence at this scale. This allows for a quantitative analysis of the simulated mountain wave's dynamical influence, including the orographically induced pressure drag, the counterbalancing wave-induced vertical transport of momentum from the flow aloft, the momentum and energy exchanges with the outer flow at the lateral and upper boundaries, the effect of turbulent mixing, the dynamics associated with geostrophic re-adjustment of the inner flow, the deceleration of the inner flow, the secondary generation of an inertia–gravity wave and the so-called baroclinic conversion of energy between potential energy and kinetic energy.

  7. Aquatic dispersion modelling of a tritium plume in Lake Ontario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Klukas, M.H.; Moltyaner, G.L.

    1996-05-01

    Approximately 2900 kg of tritiated water, containing 2.3E+15 Bq of tritium, were released to Lake Ontario via the cooling water discharge when a leak developed in a moderator heat exchanger in Unit 1 at the Pickering Nuclear Generating Station (PNGS) on 1992 August 2. The release provided the opportunity to study the dispersion of a tritium plume in the coastal zone of Lake Ontario. Current direction over the two-week period following the release was predominantly parallel to the shore, and elevated tritium concentrations were observed up to 20 km east and 85 km west of the PNGS. Predictions of the tritium plume movement were made using current velocity measurements taken at 8-m depth, 2.5 km offshore from Darlington and using a empirical relationship where alongshore current speed is assumed to be proportional to the alongshore component of the wind speed. The tritium migration was best described using current velocity measurements. The tritium plume dispersion is modelled using the one-dimensional advection-dispersion equation. Transport parameters are the alongshore current speed and longitudinal dispersion coefficient. Longitudinal dispersion coefficients, estimated by fitting the solution of the advection-dispersion equation to measured concentration distance profiles ranged from 3.75 to 10.57 m 2 s -1 . Simulations using the fitted values of the dispersion coefficient were able to describe maximum tritium concentrations measured at water supply plants located within 25 km of Pickering to within a factor of 3. The dispersion coefficient is a function of spatial and temporal variability in current velocity and the fitted dispersion coefficients estimated here may not be suitable for predicting tritium plume dispersion under different current conditions. The sensitivity of the dispersion coefficient to variability in current conditions should be evaluated in further field experiments. (author). 13 refs., 7 tabs., 12 figs

  8. Report on field research of the Spanish Antarctic Campaign 2014/15: a cooperative international research project with the 56th Japanese Antarctic Research Expedition

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sakae Kudoh

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available A study on the limnological and ecological characteristics of maritime Antarctic lakes on Byers Peninsula, Livingstone Island, South Shetland Islands, West Antarctica, was conducted by the Spanish Antarctic Research Campaign during the 2014/15 season, in cooperation with the research program of the 56th Japanese Antarctic Research Expedition. Limnological surveys of three hillside lakes and three lagoons near beaches were conducted under conditions of heavy snow cover. Soils and biological samples in the catchment areas of the lakes and lagoons were also collected and analyzed. The hillside lakes were covered by thick ice and snow, which maintained winter water conditions in the lakes, such as irreversible stratification, oxygen depletion of bottom water, very weak underwater light conditions, etc., even in mid-January, although swimming zooplankton were abundant. Water samples were also collected in coastal lagoons and streams, an environment in which birds and marine mammals transport materials through the aquatic system.

  9. Monitoring and modeling water temperature and trophic status of a shallow Mediterranean lake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giadrossich, Filippo; Bueche, Thomas; Pulina, Silvia; Marrosu, Roberto; Padedda, Bachisio Mario; Mariani, Maria Antonietta; Vetter, Mark; Cohen, Denis; Pirastru, Mario; Niedda, Marcello; Lugliè, Antonella

    2017-04-01

    Lakes are sensitive to changes in climate and human activities. Over the last few decades, Mediterranean lakes have experienced various problems due to the current climate change (drought, flood, warming, salt accumulation, water quality changes, etc.), often amplified by water use, intensification of land use activities, and pollution. The overall impact of these changes on water resources is still an open question. In this study we monitor the trophic status and the dynamics of water temperature of Lake Baratz, the only natural lake in Sardinia, Italy, characterized by high salinity and shallow depth. We extend the research carried out in the past 8 years by integrating new physical, chemical and biological data using a multidisciplinary approach that combines hydrological and biological dynamics. In particular, the lake water balance and the thermal and hydrochemical regime are studied with a lake dynamic model (the General Lake Model or GLM) which combine the energy budget method for estimating lake evaporation, and a physically-based rainfall-runoff simulator for estimating lake inflow, calibrated with measurements at the cross section of the main inlet stream. The trophic state of the lake was evaluated applying the OCDE Probability Distribution Diagrams method, which requires nutrient concentrations in the lake (total phosphorus), phytoplankton chlorophyll a and Secchi disk transparency data. We collected field data from a raft station and a land station, measuring net solar radiation, air temperature and relative humidity, precipitation, wind velocity, atmospheric pressure, and temperature from thermistors submerged in the uppermost three centimeters of water and beneath the lake surface at depths of 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, and 8 m. Samples for nutrients and chlorophyll a analyses were collected at the same above mentioned depths close to the raft station using a Niskin bottle. Temperature, salinity, pH, and dissolved oxygen were measured using a multi

  10. Morphometric analysis of Russian Plain's small lakes on the base of accurate digital bathymetric models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naumenko, Mikhail; Guzivaty, Vadim; Sapelko, Tatiana

    2016-04-01

    Lake morphometry refers to physical factors (shape, size, structure, etc) that determine the lake depression. Morphology has a great influence on lake ecological characteristics especially on water thermal conditions and mixing depth. Depth analyses, including sediment measurement at various depths, volumes of strata and shoreline characteristics are often critical to the investigation of biological, chemical and physical properties of fresh waters as well as theoretical retention time. Management techniques such as loading capacity for effluents and selective removal of undesirable components of the biota are also dependent on detailed knowledge of the morphometry and flow characteristics. During the recent years a lake bathymetric surveys were carried out by using echo sounder with a high bottom depth resolution and GPS coordinate determination. Few digital bathymetric models have been created with 10*10 m spatial grid for some small lakes of Russian Plain which the areas not exceed 1-2 sq. km. The statistical characteristics of the depth and slopes distribution of these lakes calculated on an equidistant grid. It will provide the level-surface-volume variations of small lakes and reservoirs, calculated through combination of various satellite images. We discuss the methodological aspects of creating of morphometric models of depths and slopes of small lakes as well as the advantages of digital models over traditional methods.

  11. Regional model simulation of the hydrometeorological effects of the Fucino Lake on the surrounding region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Tomassetti

    Full Text Available The drainage of the Fucino Lake of central Italy was completed in 1873, and this possibly caused significant climatic changes over the Fucino basin. In this paper we discuss a set of short-term triple-nested regional model simulations of the meteorological effects of the Fucino Lake on the surrounding region. We find that the model simulates realistic lake-breeze circulations and their response to background winds. The simulations indicate that the lake affects the temperature of the surrounding basin in all seasons and precipitation in the cold season, when cyclonic perturbations move across the region. Some effects of the lake also extend over areas quite far from the Fucino basin. Our results support the hypothesis that the drainage of the lake might have significantly affected the climate of the lake basin. However, longer simulations and further development in some aspects of the model are needed, in order to provide a more statistically robust evaluation of the simulated lake-effects.

    Key words. Hydrology (anthropogenic effects – Meteorology and atmospheric dynamics (climatology; mesoscale meteorology

  12. MERGANSER: an empirical model to predict fish and loon mercury in New England lakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shanley, James B.; Moore, Richard; Smith, Richard A.; Miller, Eric K.; Simcox, Alison; Kamman, Neil; Nacci, Diane; Robinson, Keith; Johnston, John M.; Hughes, Melissa M.; Johnston, Craig; Evers, David; Williams, Kate; Graham, John; King, Susannah

    2012-01-01

    MERGANSER (MERcury Geo-spatial AssessmeNtS for the New England Region) is an empirical least-squares multiple regression model using mercury (Hg) deposition and readily obtainable lake and watershed features to predict fish (fillet) and common loon (blood) Hg in New England lakes. We modeled lakes larger than 8 ha (4404 lakes), using 3470 fish (12 species) and 253 loon Hg concentrations from 420 lakes. MERGANSER predictor variables included Hg deposition, watershed alkalinity, percent wetlands, percent forest canopy, percent agriculture, drainage area, population density, mean annual air temperature, and watershed slope. The model returns fish or loon Hg for user-entered species and fish length. MERGANSER explained 63% of the variance in fish and loon Hg concentrations. MERGANSER predicted that 32-cm smallmouth bass had a median Hg concentration of 0.53 μg g-1 (root-mean-square error 0.27 μg g-1) and exceeded EPA's recommended fish Hg criterion of 0.3 μg g-1 in 90% of New England lakes. Common loon had a median Hg concentration of 1.07 μg g-1 and was in the moderate or higher risk category of >1 μg g-1 Hg in 58% of New England lakes. MERGANSER can be applied to target fish advisories to specific unmonitored lakes, and for scenario evaluation, such as the effect of changes in Hg deposition, land use, or warmer climate on fish and loon mercury.

  13. Testing of SIR (a transformable robotic submarine) in Lake Tahoe for future deployment at West Antarctic Ice Sheet grounding lines of Siple Coast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Powell, R. D.; Scherer, R. P.; Griffiths, I.; Taylor, L.; Winans, J.; Mankoff, K. D.

    2011-12-01

    A remotely operated vehicle (ROV) has been custom-designed and built by DOER Marine to meet scientific requirements for exploring subglacial water cavities. This sub-ice rover (SIR) will explore and quantitatively document the grounding zone areas of the Ross Ice Shelf cavity using a 3km-long umbilical tether by deployment through an 800m-long ice borehole in a torpedo shape, which is also its default mode if operational failure occurs. Once in the ocean cavity it transforms via a diamond-shaped geometry into a rectangular form when all of its instruments come alive in its flight mode. Instrumentation includes 4 cameras (one forward-looking HD), a vertical scanning sonar (long-range imaging for spatial orientation and navigation), Doppler current meter (determine water current velocities), multi-beam sonar (image and swath map bottom topography), sub-bottom profiler (profile sub-sea-floor sediment for geological history), CTD (determine salinity, temperature and depth), DO meter (determine dissolved oxygen content in water), transmissometer (determine suspended particulate concentrations in water), laser particle-size analyzer (determine sizes of particles in water), triple laser-beams (determine size and volume of objects), thermistor probe (measure in situ temperatures of ice and sediment), shear vane probe (determine in situ strength of sediment), manipulator arm (deploy instrumentation packages, collect samples), shallow ice corer (collect ice samples and glacial debris), water sampler (determine sea water/freshwater composition, calibrate real-time sensors, sample microbes), shallow sediment corer (sample sea floor, in-ice and subglacial sediment for stratigraphy, facies, particle size, composition, structure, fabric, microbes). A sophisticated array of data handling, storing and displaying will allow real-time observations and environmental assessments to be made. This robotic submarine and other instruments will be tested in Lake Tahoe in September, 2011 and

  14. Quantitative assessment of Urmia Lake water using spaceborne multisensor data and 3D modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeihouni, Mehrdad; Toomanian, Ara; Alavipanah, Seyed Kazem; Hamzeh, Saeid

    2017-10-18

    Preserving aquatic ecosystems and water resources management is crucial in arid and semi-arid regions for anthropogenic reasons and climate change. In recent decades, the water level of the largest lake in Iran, Urmia Lake, has decreased sharply, which has become a major environmental concern in Iran and the region. The efforts to revive the lake concerns the amount of water required for restoration. This study monitored and assessed Urmia Lake status over a period of 30 years (1984 to 2014) using remotely sensed data. A novel method is proposed that generates a lakebed digital elevation model (LBDEM) for Urmia Lake based on time series images from Landsat satellites, water level field measurements, remote sensing techniques, GIS, and 3D modeling. The volume of water required to restore the Lake water level to that of previous years and the ecological water level was calculated based on LBDEM. The results indicate a marked change in the area and volume of the lake from its maximum water level in 1998 to its minimum level in 2014. During this period, 86% of the lake became a salt desert and the volume of the lake water in 2013 was just 0.83% of the 1998 volume. The volume of water required to restore Urmia Lake from benchmark status (in 2014) to ecological water level (1274.10 m) is 12.546 Bm 3 , excluding evaporation. The results and the proposed method can be used by national and international environmental organizations to monitor and assess the status of Urmia Lake and support them in decision-making.

  15. Managing the Resilience of Lakes: A Multi-agent Modeling Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marco A. Janssen

    1999-12-01

    Full Text Available We demonstrate an approach for integrating social and ecological models to study ecosystem management strategies. We focus on the management of lake eutrophication. A model has been developed in which the dynamics of the lake, the learning dynamics of society, and the interactions between ecology and society are included. Analyses with the model show that active learning is important to retain the resilience of lakes. Although very low levels of phosphorus in the water will not be reached, active learning reduce the chance of catastrophic high phosphorus levels.

  16. Using a coupled groundwater/surfacewater model to predict climate-change impacts to lakes in the Trout Lake watershed, Northern Wisconsin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walker, John F.; Hunt, Randall J.; Markstrom, Steven L.; Hay, Lauren E.; Doherty, John

    2009-01-01

    A major focus of the U.S. Geological Survey’s Trout Lake Water, Energy, and Biogeochemical Budgets (WEBB) project is the development of a watershed model to allow predictions of hydrologic response to future conditions including land-use and climate change. The coupled groundwater/surface-water model GSFLOW was chosen for this purpose because it could easily incorporate an existing groundwater flow model and it provides for simulation of surface-water processes. The Trout Lake watershed in northern Wisconsin is underlain by a highly conductive outwash sand aquifer. In this area, streamflow is dominated by groundwater contributions; however, surface runoff occurs during intense rainfall periods and spring snowmelt. Surface runoff also occurs locally near stream/lake areas where the unsaturated zone is thin. A diverse data set, collected from 1992 to 2007 for the Trout Lake WEBB project and the co-located and NSF-funded North Temperate Lakes LTER project, includes snowpack, solar radiation, potential evapotranspiration, lake levels, groundwater levels, and streamflow. The timeseries processing software TSPROC (Doherty 2003) was used to distill the large time series data set to a smaller set of observations and summary statistics that captured the salient hydrologic information. The timeseries processing reduced hundreds of thousands of observations to less than 5,000. Model calibration included specific predictions for several lakes in the study area using the PEST parameter estimation suite of software (Doherty 2007). The calibrated model was used to simulate the hydrologic response in the study lakes to a variety of climate change scenarios culled from the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Solomon et al. 2007). Results from the simulations indicate climate change could result in substantial changes to the lake levels and components of the hydrologic budget of a seepage lake in the flow system. For a drainage lake

  17. Isotopic and hydrologic responses of small, closed lakes to climate variability: Hydroclimate reconstructions from lake sediment oxygen isotope records and mass balance models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steinman, Byron A.; Abbott, Mark B.

    2013-03-01

    Hydroclimate sensitivity simulations were conducted with a lake-catchment hydrologic and isotope mass balance model adapted to two small, closed lakes (Castor and Scanlon) located in the Pacific Northwest. Model simulations were designed to investigate the combined influences of persistent disequilibrium, reddening, and equifinality on lake water and sediment (i.e., biogenic and endogenic carbonate mineral) oxygen isotope (δ18O) values and to provide a basis for quantitative, probabilistic climate reconstructions using lake sediment δ18O records. Simulation results indicate that within closed-basin lakes changes in long-term (i.e., multi-decadal) precipitation amounts produce inconsistent responses in lake water and sediment δ18O values that are strongly influenced by lake basin outseepage and morphometry. Simulations of variable initial conditions in which randomly generated monthly climate data (i.e., precipitation, temperature, and relative humidity) were used to force the model during the equilibration period (which precedes the application of instrumental climate data) demonstrate that Castor Lake and Scanlon Lake have a somewhat limited isotopic 'memory' of ˜10 years. Additional tests conducted using a Monte Carlo ensemble (in which random climate data were used to force the model) combined with δ18O analyses of water samples collected from 2003 to 2011 AD, indicate that within small, closed lakes in the Pacific Northwest November-February precipitation is the strongest seasonal, climatic control on sediment oxygen-isotope values. Further, a Monte Carlo based reconstruction of 20 year average November-February precipitation amounts strongly correlates (R2 = 0.66) to instrumental values from the 20th century (with all observed values falling within modeled 95% prediction limits), indicating that probabilistic, quantitative paleoclimate interpretations of lake sediment δ18O records are attainable.

  18. Modelling assessment of oil sands pit lakes turn-over potential

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mackenzie, I.; Vandenberg, J.; Lauzon, N.; Takyi, A.

    2006-01-01

    Pit lakes form when surface mining operations are discontinued and dewatering is terminated. Their use as a treatment step for oil sands surface mining reclamation waters was discussed. The goal of the End Pit Lake Subgroup of the Cumulative Environmental Management Association is to establish guidelines that will enable operators to achieve acceptable water quality for these lakes. Although both biological and physical processes affect turn-over potential, this presentation focused on the size of pit lakes, their depth, starting lake salinity concentrations, inflow rates and inflow salinity flux. These parameters where selected because of their influence on density gradients and turn-over potential. One-dimensional and two-dimensional modelling simulations were performed to examine turnover potential for a large range of pit lake configurations and conditions. The pit lake scenarios chosen for this modelling study included a wide range of changes in 3 lake sizes (1, 4 and 8 km 2 ), 3 lake depths (5, 20 and 50 m), 2 lake starting salinities (1 and 5 parts per thousand), 2 inflow rates (2 and 10 million m 3 per year), 3 starting inflow salinity concentrations (1, 2 and 4 parts per thousand) and 2 rates of influent salinity decrease (6- and 28- year half-life). Simulations showed that autumn is the governing season for determining turn-over potential. For the scenarios examined in this study, the expelling of salt from saline water upon ice formation and the effect of fresh water loading during spring melt events were not found to be significant factors governing turn-over potential. This presentation reviewed the DYRESM, CE-QUAL-W2, and RMA models used in this study. The conclusions reached by each model was also reviewed along with ongoing follow-up work

  19. Estimating future temperature maxima in lakes across the United States using a surrogate modeling approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zi, Tan; Schmidt, Michelle; Johnson, Thomas E.; Nover, Daniel M.; Clark, Christopher M.

    2017-01-01

    A warming climate increases thermal inputs to lakes with potential implications for water quality and aquatic ecosystems. In a previous study, we used a dynamic water column temperature and mixing simulation model to simulate chronic (7-day average) maximum temperatures under a range of potential future climate projections at selected sites representative of different U.S. regions. Here, to extend results to lakes where dynamic models have not been developed, we apply a novel machine learning approach that uses Gaussian Process regression to describe the model response surface as a function of simplified lake characteristics (depth, surface area, water clarity) and climate forcing (winter and summer air temperatures and potential evapotranspiration). We use this approach to extrapolate predictions from the simulation model to the statistical sample of U.S. lakes in the National Lakes Assessment (NLA) database. Results provide a national-scale scoping assessment of the potential thermal risk to lake water quality and ecosystems across the U.S. We suggest a small fraction of lakes will experience less risk of summer thermal stress events due to changes in stratification and mixing dynamics, but most will experience increases. The percentage of lakes in the NLA with simulated 7-day average maximum water temperatures in excess of 30°C is projected to increase from less than 2% to approximately 22% by the end of the 21st century, which could significantly reduce the number of lakes that can support cold water fisheries. Site-specific analysis of the full range of factors that influence thermal profiles in individual lakes is needed to develop appropriate adaptation strategies. PMID:29121058

  20. Antarctic snow and global climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Granberg, H.B.

    2001-01-01

    Global circulation models (GCM) indicate that global warming will be most pronounced at polar regions and high latitudes, causing concern about the stability of the Antarctic ice cap. A project entitled the Seasonal Snow in Antarctica examined the properties of the near surface snow to determine the current conditions that influence snow cover development. The goal was to assess the response of the snow cover in Queen Maud Land (QML) to an increased atmospheric carbon dioxide content. The Antarctic snow cover in QML was examined as part of the FINNARP expeditions in 1999 and 2000 which examined the processes that influence the snow cover. Its energy and mass balance were also assessed by examining the near surface snow strata in shallow (1-2 m) pits and by taking measurements of environmental variables. This made it possible to determine if the glacier is in danger of melting at this northerly location in the Antarctic. The study also made it possible to determine which variables need to change and by how much, for significant melting to occur. It was shown that the Antarctic anticyclone creates particular conditions that protect the snow cover from melting. The anticyclone brings dry air from the stratosphere during most of the year and is exempt from the water vapour feedback. It was concluded that even a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide will not produce major snow melt runoff. 8 refs

  1. Antarctic grounding-line migration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slater, T.; Konrad, H.; Shepherd, A.; Gilbert, L.; Hogg, A.; McMillan, M.; Muir, A. S.

    2017-12-01

    Knowledge of grounding-line position is critical for quantifying ice discharge into the ocean, as a boundary condition for numerical models of ice flow, and as an indicator of ice sheet stability. Although geological investigations have documented extensive grounding-line retreat since the period of the Last Glacial Maximum, observations of grounding line migration during the satellite era are restricted to a handful of locations. We combine satellite altimeter observations of ice-elevation change and airborne measurements of ice geometry to track movement of the Antarctic Ice Sheet grounding line. Based on these data, we estimate that 22%, 3%, and 10% of the West Antarctic, East Antarctic, and Antarctic Peninsula ice sheet grounding lines are retreating at rates faster than the typical pace since the Last Glacial Maximum, and that the continent loses over 200 km2 of grounded-ice area per year. Although by far the fastest rates of retreat occurred in the Amundsen Sea Sector, the Pine Island Glacier grounding line has stabilized - likely as a consequence of abated ocean forcing during the survey period.

  2. The LARsen Ice Shelf System, Antarctica, LARISSA a Model for Antarctic Integrated System Science (AISS) Investigations using Marine Platforms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Domack, E. W.; Huber, B. A.; Vernet, M.; Leventer, A.; Scambos, T. A.; Mosley-Thompson, E. S.; Smith, C. R.; de Batist, M. A.; Yoon, H.; Larissa

    2010-12-01

    The LARISSA program is the first interdisciplinary project funded in the AISS program of the NSF Office of Polar Programs and was officially launched in the closing days of the IPY. This program brings together investigators, students, and media to address the rapid and fundamental changes taking place in the region of the Larsen Ice Shelf and surrounding areas. Scientific foci include: glaciologic and oceanographic interactions, the response of pelagic and benthic ecosystems to ice shelf decay, sedimentary record of ice shelf break disintegration, the geologic evolution of ice shelf systems over the last 100,000 years, paleoclimate/environmental records from marine sediment and ice cores, and the crustal response to ice mass loss at decade to millennial time scales. The first major field season took place this past austral summer aboard the NB Palmer (cruise NBP10-01) which deployed with a multi-layered logistical infrastructure that included: two Bell 220 aircraft, a multifunctional deep water ROV, video guided sediment corer, jumbo piston core, and an array of oceanographic and biological sensors and instruments. In tandem with this ship based operation Twin Otter aircraft supported an ice core team upon the crest of the Bruce Plateau with logistic support provided by the BAS at Rothera Station. Although unusually heavy sea ice prevented much of the original work from being completed in the Larsen Embayment the interdisciplinary approach proved useful. Further the logistical model of ship based aircraft to support interdisciplinary work proved viable, again despite an unusually severe summer meterologic pattern across the northern Antarctic Peninsula. As the program moves forward other vessels will come into play and the model can be applied to interdisciplinary objectives in other regions of Antarctica which are remote and lack land based infrastructure to support coastal field programs in glaciology, geology, or meteorology. This work could then be completed

  3. Modeling the GLOF Hazard Process Chain at Imja Lake in the Nepal Himalaya

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lala, J.; McKinney, D. C.; Rounce, D.

    2017-12-01

    The Hindu Kush-Himalaya region contains more glacial ice than any other non-polar region on earth. Many glacial lakes in Nepal are held in place by natural moraine dams, which are inherently unstable. Avalanches or landslides entering glacial lakes can cause tsunami-like waves that can overtop the moraines and trigger glacial lake outburst floods (GLOF). Mass loss at the Imja glacier is the highest in the Mount Everest region, and contributes to the expansion of Imja Tsho, a lake with several villages downstream. A GLOF from the lake might destroy both property and human life, making an understanding of flood triggering processes beneficial for both the downstream villages and other GLOF-prone areas globally. The process chain for an avalanche-induced GLOF was modeled numerically. The volume and velocity of debris from avalanches entering various future lake extents were calculated using RAMMS. Resulting waves and downstream flooding were simulated using BASEMENT to evaluate erosion at the terminal moraine. Wave characteristics in BASEMENT were validated with empirical equations to ensure the proper transfer of momentum from the avalanche to the lake. Moraine erosion was determined for two geomorphologic scenarios: a site-specific scenario using field samples, and a worst-case scenario based on past literature. Both cases resulted in no flooding outside the river channel at downstream villages. Worst-case scenario geomorphology resulted in increased channelization of the lake outlet and some moraine erosion but no catastrophic collapse. Site-specific data yielded similar results but with even less erosion and downstream discharge. While the models confirmed that Imja Tsho is unlikely to produce a catastrophic GLOF in the near future, they also highlight the importance of continued monitoring of the lake. Furthermore, the ease and flexibility of these methods allows for their adoption by a wide range of stakeholders for modeling other high-risk lakes.

  4. Stable isotope and hydrogeochemical studies of Beaver Lake and Radok Lake, MacRobertson Land, East Antarctica

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wand, U.; Hermichen, W.D.

    1988-01-01

    Beaver Lake and Radok Lake, the largest known epishelf lake and the deepest freshwater lake on the Antarctic continent, respectively, were isotopically (δ 2 H, δ 18 O) and hydrogeochemically studied. Radok Lake is an isothermal and nonstratified, i.e. homogeneous water body, while Beaver Lake is stratified with respect to temperature, salinity and isotopic composition. The results for the latter attest to freshwater (derived from snow and glacier melt) overlying seawater. (author)

  5. Examining the utility of satellite-based wind sheltering estimates for lake hydrodynamic modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Den Hoek, Jamon; Read, Jordan S.; Winslow, Luke A.; Montesano, Paul; Markfort, Corey D.

    2015-01-01

    Satellite-based measurements of vegetation canopy structure have been in common use for the last decade but have never been used to estimate canopy's impact on wind sheltering of individual lakes. Wind sheltering is caused by slower winds in the wake of topography and shoreline obstacles (e.g. forest canopy) and influences heat loss and the flux of wind-driven mixing energy into lakes, which control lake temperatures and indirectly structure lake ecosystem processes, including carbon cycling and thermal habitat partitioning. Lakeshore wind sheltering has often been parameterized by lake surface area but such empirical relationships are only based on forested lakeshores and overlook the contributions of local land cover and terrain to wind sheltering. This study is the first to examine the utility of satellite imagery-derived broad-scale estimates of wind sheltering across a diversity of land covers. Using 30 m spatial resolution ASTER GDEM2 elevation data, the mean sheltering height, hs, being the combination of local topographic rise and canopy height above the lake surface, is calculated within 100 m-wide buffers surrounding 76,000 lakes in the U.S. state of Wisconsin. Uncertainty of GDEM2-derived hs was compared to SRTM-, high-resolution G-LiHT lidar-, and ICESat-derived estimates of hs, respective influences of land cover type and buffer width on hsare examined; and the effect of including satellite-based hs on the accuracy of a statewide lake hydrodynamic model was discussed. Though GDEM2 hs uncertainty was comparable to or better than other satellite-based measures of hs, its higher spatial resolution and broader spatial coverage allowed more lakes to be included in modeling efforts. GDEM2 was shown to offer superior utility for estimating hs compared to other satellite-derived data, but was limited by its consistent underestimation of hs, inability to detect within-buffer hs variability, and differing accuracy across land cover types. Nonetheless

  6. 'Trade-off' in Antarctic bacteria: limnetic psychrotrophs concede multiple enzyme expressions for multiple metal resistance

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    DeSouza, M.J.B.D.; LokaBharathi, P.A.; Nair, S.; Chandramohan, D.

    relatively more pristine than the other oceanic waters, experienc- ing both local and global anthropogenic influ- ences only over larger time scales (Bonner 1984; Evans et al. 2000). This remotest region of the earth is a model system where human assisted... and members of the 13th Antarctic expedition for all the help rendered during the expedition. Dr. V.K. Dargalkar’s able assistance in the strategic collection of water samples from freshwater lakes in and around the Indian base camp–Maitri is acknowledged. NIO...

  7. Finite volume modelling of an icefield with subglacial lake

    OpenAIRE

    Bucchignani, Edoardo; Mansutti, Daniela; Navarro Valero, Francisco Jose; Otero García, Jaime; Glowacki, Piotr

    2013-01-01

    Momentum, mass and energy balance laws provide the tools for the study of the evolution of an icefield covering a subglacial lake. The ice is described as a non-Newtonian fluid with a power-law constitutive relationship with temperature- and stress-dependent viscosity (Glen?s law) [1]. The phase transition mechanisms at the air/ice and ice/water interfaces yield moving boundary formulations, and lake hydrodynamics requires equation reduction for treating the turbulence.

  8. Study of tributary inflows in Lake Iseo with a rotating physical model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marco Pilotti

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available The influence of Coriolis force on the currents of large lakes is well acknowledged; very few contributions, however, investigate this aspect in medium-size lakes where its relevance could be questionable. In order to study the area of influence of the two major tributary rivers in Lake Iseo, a rotating vertically distorted physical model of the northern part of this lake was prepared and used, respecting both Froude and Rossby similarity. The model has a horizontal length scale factor of 8000 and a vertical scale factor of 500 and was used both in homogeneous and in thermally stratified conditions. We explored the pattern of water circulation in front of the entrance mouth for different hydrologic scenarios at the beginning of spring and in summer. We neglected the influence of winds. The primary purposes of the model were twofold: i to increase our level of knowledge of the hydrodynamics of Lake Iseo by verifying the occurrence of dynamical effects related to the Earth’s rotation on the plume of the two tributaries that enter the northern part of the lake and ii to identify the areas of the lake that can be directly influenced by the tributaries’ waters, in order to provide guidance on water quality monitoring in zones of relevant environmental and touristic value. The results of the physical model confirm the relevant role played by the Coriolis force in the northern part of the lake. Under ordinary flow conditions, the model shows a systematic deflection of the inflowing waters towards the western shore of the lake. The inflow triggers a clockwise gyre within the Lovere bay, to the West of the inflow, and a slow counter-clockwise gyre, to the East of the inflow, that returns water towards the river mouth along the eastern shore. For discharges with higher return period, when only the contribution by Oglio River is relevant, the effect of the Earth’s rotation weakens in the entrance zone and the plume has a more rectilinear pattern

  9. A mathematical model for lake ontogeny in terms of filling with sediments and macrophyte vegetation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brydsten, Lars [Umeaa Univ. (Sweden). Dept. of Biology and Environmental Science

    2004-05-01

    A mathematical model for simulation of lake basin filling processes in areas with positive shore displacement was constructed. The model was calibrated using sediment and catchments data from eight existing lake basins situated in the northern coastal area of the province of Uppland, Sweden. The lake basin filling processes were separated into three phases: basin filling with wave-washed material (silt, silty sand or sand), filling with fine-grained material during the shallow gulf and lake stages, respectively, and filling with vegetation during the lake stage. The basin filling rates for wave-washed material were generally low but varied considerably both between and within lakes. The mean basin filling rate of wave-washed material was 4.1%. The volume of inorganic sediments produced, and basin filling rates during the shallow gulf and lake phases were determined for all the eight lakes. The relationship between basin filling rate and parameters describing the catchments, the former postglacial basins and the lakes, respectively, was determined using multiple regression analysis. The basin filling rate with inorganic sediments was best described by parameters related to former postglacial basin morphometry and current lake morphometry, e.g. basin volume, lake volume, and lake area. The goodness of fit turned out to be 0.99 for a simple regression with basin volume as the sole independent variable. The basin filling with vegetation (Phragmites australis followed by Sphagnum spp.) was treated as a 2-dimensional process. A dataset with 84 bogs was selected from a digital soil map. The ages of the bogs were calculated using a digital elevation map and an equation for shore displacement. The choke-up rate was then calculated by dividing the area of the bogs with their age. A strong exponential relationship exists between areas of the bogs and choke-up rat, and this relationship was then used in the model. The resulting model starts by filling the former coastal basin

  10. Variations of the Antarctic Ice Sheet in a Coupled Ice Sheet-Earth-Sea Level Model: Sensitivity to Viscoelastic Earth Properties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pollard, David; Gomez, Natalya; Deconto, Robert M.

    2017-11-01

    A coupled ice sheet-solid Earth-sea level model is applied to long-term variations of the Antarctic ice sheet. A set of radially varying viscoelastic profiles in the global Earth model is used to explore feedbacks on ice sheet variability, including one with a very weak upper mantle zone and thin lithosphere representative of West Antarctic regions. Simulations are performed for (1) the deglacial retreat over the last 20,000 years, (2) the future 5,000 years with greenhouse-gas scenario Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5), and (3) the warm Pliocene 3 Ma. For the deglacial period a large ensemble of 625 simulations is analyzed, with a score computed for each run based on comparisons to geologic and modern data. For each of the five Earth profiles, the top-scoring combinations of the other model parameters in the ensemble are used to perform future and Pliocene simulations. For the last deglacial retreat, the viscoelastic Earth profiles produce relatively small differences in overall ice volume and equivalent sea level. In contrast, profiles with weak upper mantle and thin lithosphere produce strong negative feedback and less ice retreat in the future and Pliocene runs. This is due to the faster pace of ice sheet retreat in these runs, leading to greater lags in the viscous bedrock rebound behind the unloading, which allows for greater influence of the viscosity profiles. However, the differences in grounding-line retreat are located primarily in East Antarctic basins, where a weak upper mantle and thin lithosphere may not be realistic, emphasizing the need for lateral heterogeneity in the Earth model.

  11. Spatial heterogeneity in geothermally-influenced lakes derived from atmospherically corrected Landsat thermal imagery and three-dimensional hydrodynamic modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Allan, Mathew G; Hamilton, David P.; Trolle, Dennis

    2016-01-01

    Atmospheric correction of Landsat 7 thermal data was carried out for the purpose of retrieval of lake skin water temperature in Rotorua lakes, and Lake Taupo, North Island, New Zealand. The effect of the atmosphere was modelled using four sources of atmospheric profile data as input to the MODera...

  12. Hydrologic behaviour of the Lake of Monate (Italy): a parsimonious modelling strategy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tomesani, Giulia; Soligno, Irene; Castellarin, Attilio; Baratti, Emanuele; Cervi, Federico; Montanari, Alberto

    2016-04-01

    The Lake of Monate (province of Varese, Northern Italy), is a unique example of ecosystem in equilibrium. The lake water quality is deemed excellent notwithstanding the intensive agricultural cultivation, industrial assets and mining activities characterising the surrounding areas. The lake has a true touristic vocation and is the only swimmable water body of the province of Varese, which counts several natural lakes. Lake of Monate has no tributary and its overall watershed area is equal to c.a. 6.6 km2 including the lake surface (i.e. 2.6 km2), of which 3.3 out of c.a. 4.0 km2 belong to the topographical watershed, while the remaining 0.7 km2 belong to the underground watershed. The latter is larger than the topographical watershed due to the presence of moraine formations on top of the limestone bedrock. The local administration recently promoted an intensive environmental monitoring campaign that aims to reach a better understanding of the hydrology of the lake and the subsurface water fluxes. The monitoring campaign started in October 2013 and, as a result, several meteoclimatic and hydrologic data have been collected up to now at daily and hourly timescales. Our study focuses on a preliminary representation of the hydrological behaviour of the lake through a modified version of HyMOD, a conceptual 5-parameter lumped rainfall-runoff model based on the probability-distributed soil storage capacity. The modified model is a semi-distributed application of HyMOD that uses the same five parameters of the original version and simulates the rainfall-runoff transformation for the whole lake watershed at daily time scale in terms of: direct precipitation on, and evaporation from, the lake surface; overall lake inflow, by separating the runoff component (topographic watershed) from the groundwater component (overall watershed); lake water-level oscillation; streamflow at the lake outlet. We used the first year of hydrometeorological observations as calibration data and

  13. Identifying the origin of waterbird carcasses in Lake Michigan using a neural network source tracking model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kenow, Kevin P.; Ge, Zhongfu; Fara, Luke J.; Houdek, Steven C.; Lubinski, Brian R.

    2016-01-01

    Avian botulism type E is responsible for extensive waterbird mortality on the Great Lakes, yet the actual site of toxin exposure remains unclear. Beached carcasses are often used to describe the spatial aspects of botulism mortality outbreaks, but lack specificity of offshore toxin source locations. We detail methodology for developing a neural network model used for predicting waterbird carcass motions in response to wind, wave, and current forcing, in lieu of a complex analytical relationship. This empirically trained model uses current velocity, wind velocity, significant wave height, and wave peak period in Lake Michigan simulated by the Great Lakes Coastal Forecasting System. A detailed procedure is further developed to use the model for back-tracing waterbird carcasses found on beaches in various parts of Lake Michigan, which was validated using drift data for radiomarked common loon (Gavia immer) carcasses deployed at a variety of locations in northern Lake Michigan during September and October of 2013. The back-tracing model was further used on 22 non-radiomarked common loon carcasses found along the shoreline of northern Lake Michigan in October and November of 2012. The model-estimated origins of those cases pointed to some common source locations offshore that coincide with concentrations of common loons observed during aerial surveys. The neural network source tracking model provides a promising approach for identifying locations of botulinum neurotoxin type E intoxication and, in turn, contributes to developing an understanding of the dynamics of toxin production and possible trophic transfer pathways.

  14. Sustainable fisheries in shallow lakes: an independent empirical test of the Chinese mitten crab yield model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Haijun; Liang, Xiaomin; Wang, Hongzhu

    2017-07-01

    Next to excessive nutrient loading, intensive aquaculture is one of the major anthropogenic impacts threatening lake ecosystems. In China, particularly in the shallow lakes of mid-lower Changjiang (Yangtze) River, continuous overstocking of the Chinese mitten crab ( Eriocheir sinensis) could deteriorate water quality and exhaust natural resources. A series of crab yield models and a general optimum-stocking rate model have been established, which seek to benefit both crab culture and the environment. In this research, independent investigations were carried out to evaluate the crab yield models and modify the optimum-stocking model. Low percentage errors (average 47%, median 36%) between observed and calculated crab yields were obtained. Specific values were defined for adult crab body mass (135 g/ind.) and recapture rate (18% and 30% in lakes with submerged macrophyte biomass above and below 1 000 g/m2) to modify the optimum-stocking model. Analysis based on the modified optimum-stocking model indicated that the actual stocking rates in most lakes were much higher than the calculated optimum-stocking rates. This implies that, for most lakes, the current stocking rates should be greatly reduced to maintain healthy lake ecosystems.

  15. Monitoring of Bashkara glacial lakes (the Central Caucasus) and modelling of their potential outburst.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krylenko, I.; Norin, S.; Petrakov, D.; Tutubalina, O.; Chernomorets, S.

    2009-04-01

    models, based on solving of two-dimensional Saint-Venant equations -"River" (the Russia, author V.Belikov) and "Flo-2D" (the USA, authors J.S.O'Brien, R.Garcia) were used. The "River" model is based on the irregular triangular grid, therefore it is possible to calculate flow in details. On the other hand there is no debris flow block in this model yet and "Flo-2D" was applied to calculate potential debris flow parameters, because transformation of flood into debris flow is likely here. Input data for simulation were following: digital terrain model of Adylsu valley, made on the on the basis of map with scale 1:25000, outburst hydrograph, calculated for case of englacial drainage channels formation (Vinogradov's model, Russia), some empirical relationships between volume of the glacial lake and maximum discharge of outburst (i.e. Clague and Mathews, Walder and Costa) were also applied. The mean value of the maximum discharge for potential outburst obtained by different methods was about 150 m3 /c. According to results of hydrodynamic modelling, movement of flood wave downstream the valley will be fast, peak of flood will cover distance from upper part of valley to lowest (8 km) for about half an hour. The depth of the flow on the floodplain is about 1-1.5 m and could reach 6 m in some sites. There are hotel, large camping site and several bridges in the hazardous zone. In 2008 early warning system was designed and installed at the Bashkara lake.

  16. Antarctic 5-km Digital Elevation Model from ERS-1 Altimetry, Version 1

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This data set provides a Digital Elevation Model (DEM) for Antarctica to 81.5 degrees south latitude, at a resolution of 5 km. Approximately twenty million data...

  17. Estimation of Transport Trajectory and Residence Time in Large River–Lake Systems: Application to Poyang Lake (China Using a Combined Model Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yunliang Li

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The biochemical processes and associated water quality in many lakes mainly depend on their transport behaviors. Most existing methodologies for investigating transport behaviors are based on physically based numerical models. The pollutant transport trajectory and residence time of Poyang Lake are thought to have important implications for the steadily deteriorating water quality and the associated rapid environmental changes during the flood period. This study used a hydrodynamic model (MIKE 21 in conjunction with transport and particle-tracking sub-models to provide comprehensive investigation of transport behaviors in Poyang Lake. Model simulations reveal that the lake’s prevailing water flow patterns cause a unique transport trajectory that primarily develops from the catchment river mouths to the downstream area along the lake’s main flow channels, similar to a river-transport behavior. Particle tracking results show that the mean residence time of the lake is 89 days during July–September. The effect of the Yangtze River (the effluent of the lake on the residence time is stronger than that of the catchment river inflows. The current study represents a first attempt to use a combined model approach to provide insights into the transport behaviors for a large river–lake system, given proposals to manage the pollutant inputs both directly to the lake and catchment rivers.

  18. Modelling land cover change effects on catchment-to-lake sediment transfer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Hugh; Peñuela Fernández, Andres; Sellami, Haykel; Sangster, Heather; Boyle, John; Chiverrell, Richard; Riley, Mark

    2017-04-01

    Measurements of catchment soil erosion and sediment transfer to streams and lakes are limited and typically short duration (physical and social records coupled with high-resolution, sub-annual simulations of catchment-to-lake soil erosion and sedimentation. This choice of modelling period represents a compromise between the length of record and data availability for model parameterisation. We combine historic datasets for climate and land cover from four lake catchments in Britain with a fully revised catchment-scale modelling approach based on the Morgan-Morgan-Finney model, called MMF-TWI, that incorporates new elements representing plant growth, soil water balance and variable runoff and sediment contributing areas. The catchments comprise an intensively-farmed lowland agricultural catchment and three upland catchments. Historic change simulations were compared with sedimentation rates determined from multiple dated cores taken from each lake. Our revised modelling approach produced generally comparable rates of lake sediment flux to those based on sediment archives. Moreover, these centennial scale records form the basis for examining hypothetical scenarios linked to changes in crop rotation (lowland) and riparian re-afforestation (uplands), as well as providing an extended historic baseline against which to compare future climate effects on runoff, erosion and lake sediment delivery.

  19. Lessons Learned from Stakeholder-Driven Modeling in the Western Lake Erie Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muenich, R. L.; Read, J.; Vaccaro, L.; Kalcic, M. M.; Scavia, D.

    2017-12-01

    Lake Erie's history includes a great environmental success story. Recognizing the impact of high phosphorus loads from point sources, the United States and Canada 1972 Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement set load reduction targets to reduce algae blooms and hypoxia. The Lake responded quickly to those reductions and it was declared a success. However, since the mid-1990s, Lake Erie's algal blooms and hypoxia have returned, and this time with a dominant algae species that produces toxins. Return of the algal blooms and hypoxia is again driven by phosphorus loads, but this time a major source is the agriculturally-dominated Maumee River watershed that covers NW Ohio, NE Indiana, and SE Michigan, and the hypoxic extent has been shown to be driven by Maumee River loads plus those from the bi-national and multiple land-use St. Clair - Detroit River system. Stakeholders in the Lake Erie watershed have a long history of engagement with environmental policy, including modeling and monitoring efforts. This talk will focus on the application of interdisciplinary, stakeholder-driven modeling efforts aimed at understanding the primary phosphorus sources and potential pathways to reduce these sources and the resulting algal blooms and hypoxia in Lake Erie. We will discuss the challenges, such as engaging users with different goals, benefits to modeling, such as improvements in modeling data, and new research questions emerging from these modeling efforts that are driven by end-user needs.

  20. On the influence of model physics on simulations of Arctic and Antarctic sea ice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Massonnet

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available Two hindcast (1983–2007 simulations are performed with the global, ocean-sea ice models NEMO-LIM2 and NEMO-LIM3 driven by atmospheric reanalyses and climatologies. The two simulations differ only in their sea ice component, while all other elements of experimental design (resolution, initial conditions, atmospheric forcing are kept identical. The main differences in the sea ice models lie in the formulation of the subgrid-scale ice thickness distribution, of the thermodynamic processes, of the sea ice salinity and of the sea ice rheology. To assess the differences in model skill over the period of investigation, we develop a set of metrics for both hemispheres, comparing the main sea ice variables (concentration, thickness and drift to available observations and focusing on both mean state and seasonal to interannual variability. Based upon these metrics, we discuss the physical processes potentially responsible for the differences in model skill. In particular, we suggest that (i a detailed representation of the ice thickness distribution increases the seasonal to interannual variability of ice extent, with spectacular improvement for the simulation of the recent observed summer Arctic sea ice retreats, (ii the elastic-viscous-plastic rheology enhances the response of ice to wind stress, compared to the classical viscous-plastic approach, (iii the grid formulation and the air-sea ice drag coefficient affect the simulated ice export through Fram Strait and the ice accumulation along the Canadian Archipelago, and (iv both models show less skill in the Southern Ocean, probably due to the low quality of the reanalyses in this region and to the absence of important small-scale oceanic processes at the models' resolution (~1°.

  1. PREDICTED SEDIMENTARY SECTION OF SUBGLACIAL LAKE VOSTOK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. I. Leychenkov

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available In early February 2012, the drill hole at the Vostok Station encountered theLakeVostokwater. This step is important to study the lake composition including possible microbial life and to model subglacial environments however, the next ambitious target of the Vostok Drilling Project is sampling of bottom sediments, which contain the unique record of ice sheet evolution and environmental changes in centralAntarcticafor millions of years. In this connection, the forecast of sedimentary succession based on existing geophysical data, study of mineral inclusions in the accretion ice cores and tectonic models is important task. Interpretation of Airborne geophysical data suggests thatLakeVostokis the part of spacious rift system, which exists at least from Cretaceous. Reflection and refraction seismic experiments conducted in the southern part ofLakeVostokshow very thin (200–300 m stratified sedimentary cover overlying crystalline basement with velocity of 6.0–6.2 km/s. At present, deposition in southernLakeVostokis absent and similar conditions occurred likely at least last3 m.y. when ice sheet aboveLakeVostokchanged insignificantly. It can be also inferred that from the Late Miocene the rate of deposition inLakeVostokwas extremely low and so the most of sedimentary section is older being possibly of Oligocene to early to middle Miocene age when ice sheet oscillated and deposition was more vigorous. If so, the sampling of upper few meters of this condensed section is very informative in terms of history of Antarctic glaciation. Small thickness of sedimentary cover raises a question about existence of lake (rift depression during preglacial and early glacial times.

  2. 3D modelling of interaction of strongly nonlinear internal seiches with a concave lake topography and a phenomenon of the "lake monsters".

    Science.gov (United States)

    Terletska, Kateryna; Maderich, Vladimir; Brovchenko, Igor; Jung, Kyung Tae

    2013-04-01

    In the freshwater lakes in moderate latitudes stratification occurs as a result of the seasonal warming of the surface water layer. Than the intense wind surges (usually in autumn) tilt the surface and generate long basin-scale low-frequency standing internal waves (seiches). Depending on the initial interface tilt and stratification wide spectra of possible flow regimes can be observed [1]-[2].They varied from small amplitude symmetric seiches to large amplitude nonlinear waves.Nonlinearity leads to an asymmetry of internal waves and appearance of the surge or bore and further disintegration of it on a sequence of solitary waves. In present study degeneration of the strongly nonlinear internal seiches in elongated lakes with a concave "spoon-like" topography is investigated.Two different three-dimensional non-hydrostatic free-surface numerical models are used to investigate degeneration of large internal waves and its subsequent interaction with the concave lake slope. One of this model is non-hydrostatic model [3] and the other is a well-known MIT model. At first we consider idealized elongated elliptic-shape lake with the dimension of 5 km X 1 km with the maximal depth 30 m. The stratification in lake is assumed to be given in a form of the tangent function with a density difference between upper and lower layers 2 kgm-3 . It is assumed that motion in such lake is initiated by inclination of thermocline on a certain angle. Than lake adjusts to return to its original state producing internal seiches which begin interacting with a bottom topography. The process of degeneration of internal seiches in the lake with concave ends consist of chain of elementary processes: 1) steeping of long basin scale large amplitude wave, that evolve into internal surge, 2) surge interact with concave lake ends that leads the concentration of the flow and formation of down slope bottom jet along the lake axis, 3) due to cumulative effect local velocity in the jet accelerates up to

  3. The response of a simple Antarctic ice-flow model to temperature and sea-level fluctuations over the Cenozoic era

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Tuyll, C. I.; van de Wal, R. S. W.; Oerlemans, J.

    2007-10-01

    An ice-flow model is used to simulate the Antarctic ice-sheet volume and deep-sea temperature record during Cenozoic times. We used a vertically integrated axisymmetric ice-sheet model, including bedrock adjustment. In order to overcome strong numerical hysteresis effects during climate change, the model is solved on a stretching grid. The Cenozoic reconstruction of the Antarctic ice sheet is accomplished by splitting the global oxygen isotope record derived from benthic foraminifera into an ice-volume and a deep-sea temperature component. The model is tuned to reconstruct the initiation of a large ice sheet of continental size at 34 Ma. The resulting ice volume curve shows that small ice caps (Paleocene and Eocene times. Fluctuations during the Miocene are large, indicating a retreat back from the coast and a vanishing ice flux across the grounding line, but with ice volumes still up to 60% of the present-day volume. The resulting deep-sea temperature curve shows similarities with the paleotemperature curve derived from Mg/Ca in benthic calcite from 25 Ma till the present, which supports the idea that the ice volume is well reproduced for this period. Before 34 Ma, the reproduced deep-sea temperature is slightly higher than is generally assumed. Global sea-level change turns out to be of minor importance when considering the Cenozoic evolution of the ice sheet until 5 Ma.

  4. Spatiotemporal Variability of Lake Water Quality in the Context of Remote Sensing Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carly Hyatt Hansen

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available This study demonstrates a number of methods for using field sampling and observed lake characteristics and patterns to improve techniques for development of algae remote sensing models and applications. As satellite and airborne sensors improve and their data are more readily available, applications of models to estimate water quality via remote sensing are becoming more practical for local water quality monitoring, particularly of surface algal conditions. Despite the increasing number of applications, there are significant concerns associated with remote sensing model development and application, several of which are addressed in this study. These concerns include: (1 selecting sensors which are suitable for the spatial and temporal variability in the water body; (2 determining appropriate uses of near-coincident data in empirical model calibration; and (3 recognizing potential limitations of remote sensing measurements which are biased toward surface and near-surface conditions. We address these issues in three lakes in the Great Salt Lake surface water system (namely the Great Salt Lake, Farmington Bay, and Utah Lake through sampling at scales that are representative of commonly used sensors, repeated sampling, and sampling at both near-surface depths and throughout the water column. The variability across distances representative of the spatial resolutions of Landsat, SENTINEL-2 and MODIS sensors suggests that these sensors are appropriate for this lake system. We also use observed temporal variability in the system to evaluate sensors. These relationships proved to be complex, and observed temporal variability indicates the revisit time of Landsat may be problematic for detecting short events in some lakes, while it may be sufficient for other areas of the system with lower short-term variability. Temporal variability patterns in these lakes are also used to assess near-coincident data in empirical model development. Finally, relationships

  5. Satellite remote sensing for modeling and monitoring of water quality in the Great Lakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coffield, S. R.; Crosson, W. L.; Al-Hamdan, M. Z.; Barik, M. G.

    2017-12-01

    Consistent and accurate monitoring of the Great Lakes is critical for protecting the freshwater ecosystems, quantifying the impacts of climate change, understanding harmful algal blooms, and safeguarding public health for the millions who rely on the Lakes for drinking water. While ground-based monitoring is often hampered by limited sampling resolution, satellite data provide surface reflectance measurements at much more complete spatial and temporal scales. In this study, we implemented NASA data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) onboard the Aqua satellite to build robust water quality models. We developed and validated models for chlorophyll-a, nitrogen, phosphorus, and turbidity based on combinations of the six MODIS Ocean Color bands (412, 443, 488, 531, 547, and 667nm) for 2003-2016. Second, we applied these models to quantify trends in water quality through time and in relation to changing land cover, runoff, and climate for six selected coastal areas in Lakes Michigan and Erie. We found strongest models for chlorophyll-a in Lake Huron (R2 = 0.75), nitrogen in Lake Ontario (R2=0.66), phosphorus in Lake Erie (R2=0.60), and turbidity in Lake Erie (R2=0.86). These offer improvements over previous efforts to model chlorophyll-a while adding nitrogen, phosphorus, and turbidity. Mapped water quality parameters showed high spatial variability, with nitrogen concentrated largely in Superior and coastal Michigan and high turbidity, phosphorus, and chlorophyll near urban and agricultural areas of Erie. Temporal analysis also showed concurrence of high runoff or precipitation and nitrogen in Lake Michigan offshore of wetlands, suggesting that water quality in these areas is sensitive to changes in climate.

  6. Cluster regression model and level fluctuation features of Van Lake, Turkey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Z. Şen

    Full Text Available Lake water levels change under the influences of natural and/or anthropogenic environmental conditions. Among these influences are the climate change, greenhouse effects and ozone layer depletions which are reflected in the hydrological cycle features over the lake drainage basins. Lake levels are among the most significant hydrological variables that are influenced by different atmospheric and environmental conditions. Consequently, lake level time series in many parts of the world include nonstationarity components such as shifts in the mean value, apparent or hidden periodicities. On the other hand, many lake level modeling techniques have a stationarity assumption. The main purpose of this work is to develop a cluster regression model for dealing with nonstationarity especially in the form of shifting means. The basis of this model is the combination of transition probability and classical regression technique. Both parts of the model are applied to monthly level fluctuations of Lake Van in eastern Turkey. It is observed that the cluster regression procedure does preserve the statistical properties and the transitional probabilities that are indistinguishable from the original data.

    Key words. Hydrology (hydrologic budget; stochastic processes · Meteorology and atmospheric dynamics (ocean-atmosphere interactions

  7. Hydrodynamic and Inundation Modeling of China’s Largest Freshwater Lake Aided by Remote Sensing Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peng Zhang

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available China’s largest freshwater lake, Poyang Lake, is characterized by rapid changes in its inundation area and hydrodynamics, so in this study, a hydrodynamic model of Poyang Lake was established to simulate these long-term changes. Inundation information was extracted from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS remote sensing data and used to calibrate the wetting and drying parameter by assessing the accuracy of the simulated inundation area and its boundary. The bottom friction parameter was calibrated using current velocity measurements from Acoustic Doppler Current Profilers (ADCP. The results show the model is capable of predicting the inundation area dynamic through cross-validation with remotely sensed inundation data, and can reproduce the seasonal dynamics of the water level, and water discharge through a comparison with hydrological data. Based on the model results, the characteristics of the current velocities of the lake in the wet season and the dry season of the lake were explored, and the potential effect of the current dynamic on water quality patterns was discussed. The model is a promising basic tool for prediction and management of the water resource and water quality of Poyang Lake.

  8. CE–QUAL–W2 water-quality model and supporting LOADEST models for Lake St. Croix, Wisconsin and Minnesota, 2013

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of the Interior — A mechanistic, biophysical water-quality model (CE–QUAL–W2) was developed and calibrated for Lake St. Croix, Wisconsin and Minnesota. The Lake St. Croix CE–QUAL–W2...

  9. Distribution and Modeled Transport of Plastic Pollution in the Great Lakes, the World's Largest Freshwater Resource

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rachel N. Cable

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Most plastic pollution originates on land. As such, freshwater bodies serve as conduits for the transport of plastic litter to the ocean. Understanding the concentrations and fluxes of plastic litter in freshwater ecosystems is critical to our understanding of the global plastic litter budget and underpins the success of future management strategies. We conducted a replicated field survey of surface plastic concentrations in four lakes in the North American Great Lakes system, the largest contiguous freshwater system on the planet. We then modeled plastic transport to resolve spatial and temporal variability of plastic distribution in one of the Great Lakes, Lake Erie. Triplicate surface samples were collected at 38 stations in mid-summer of 2014. Plastic particles >106 μm in size were quantified. Concentrations were highest near populated urban areas and their water infrastructure. In the highest concentration trawl, nearly 2 million fragments km−2 were found in the Detroit River—dwarfing previous reports of Great Lakes plastic abundances by over 4-fold. Yet, the accuracy of single trawl counts was challenged: within-station plastic abundances varied 0- to 3-fold between replicate trawls. In the smallest size class (106–1,000 μm, false positive rates of 12–24% were determined analytically for plastic vs. non-plastic, while false negative rates averaged ~18%. Though predicted to form in summer by the existing Lake Erie circulation model, our transport model did not predict a permanent surface “Lake Erie Garbage Patch” in its central basin—a trend supported by field survey data. Rather, general eastward transport with recirculation in the major basins was predicted. Further, modeled plastic residence times were drastically influenced by plastic buoyancy. Neutrally buoyant plastics—those with the same density as the ambient water—were flushed several times slower than plastics floating at the water's surface and exceeded the

  10. A heuristic simulation model of Lake Ontario circulation and mass balance transport

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKenna, J.E.; Chalupnicki, M.A.

    2011-01-01

    The redistribution of suspended organisms and materials by large-scale currents is part of natural ecological processes in large aquatic systems but can contribute to ecosystem disruption when exotic elements are introduced into the system. Toxic compounds and planktonic organisms spend various lengths of time in suspension before settling to the bottom or otherwise being removed. We constructed a simple physical simulation model, including the influence of major tributaries, to qualitatively examine circulation patterns in Lake Ontario. We used a simple mass balance approach to estimate the relative water input to and export from each of 10 depth regime-specific compartments (nearshore vs. offshore) comprising Lake Ontario. Despite its simplicity, our model produced circulation patterns similar to those reported by more complex studies in the literature. A three-gyre pattern, with the classic large counterclockwise central lake circulation, and a simpler two-gyre system were both observed. These qualitative simulations indicate little offshore transport along the south shore, except near the mouths of the Niagara River and Oswego River. Complex flow structure was evident, particularly near the Niagara River mouth and in offshore waters of the eastern basin. Average Lake Ontario residence time is 8 years, but the fastest model pathway indicated potential transport of plankton through the lake in as little as 60 days. This simulation illustrates potential invasion pathways and provides rough estimates of planktonic larval dispersal or chemical transport among nearshore and offshore areas of Lake Ontario. ?? 2011 Taylor & Francis.

  11. Precipitation Modeling over the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets and the Relationship to the Surface Mass Balance and Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bromwich, David H.; Chen, Qui-Shi

    2005-01-01

    Atmospheric numerical simulation and dynamic retrieval method with atmospheric numerical analyses are used to assess the spatial and temporal variability of Antarctic precipitation for the last two decades. First, the Polar MM5 has been run over Antarctica to study the Antarctic precipitation. With a horizontal resolution of 60km, the Polar MM5 has been run for the period of July 1996 through June 1999 in a series of short-term forecasts from initial and boundary conditions provided by the ECMWF operational analyses. In comparison with climatological maps, the major features of the spatial distribution of Antarctic precipitation are well captured by the Polar MM5. Drift snow effects on redistribution of surface accumulation over Antarctica are also assessed with surface wind fields from Polar MM5 in this study. There are complex divergence and convergence patterns of drift snow transport over Antarctica, especially along the coast. It is found that areas with large drift snow transport convergence and divergence are located around escarpment areas where there is large katabatic wind acceleration. In addition, areas with large snow transport divergence are generally accompanied by areas with large snow transport convergence nearby, indicating that drift snow transport is of local importance for the redistribution of the snowfall

  12. Model for trace metal exposure in filter-feeding flamingos at alkaline Rift Valley Lake, Kenya

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nelson, Y.M.; DiSante, C.J.; Lion, L.W. [Cornell Univ., Ithaca, NY (United States). School of Civil and Environmental Engineering; Thampy, R.J.; Raini, J.A. [Worldwide Fund for Nature, Nakuru (Kenya). Lake Nakuru Conservation and Development Project; Motelin, G.K. [Egerton Univ., Njoro (Kenya). Dept. of Animal Health

    1998-11-01

    Toxic trace metals have been implicated as a potential cause of recent flamingo kills at Lake Nakuru, Kenya. Chromium (Cr), copper (Cu), lead (Pb), and zinc (Zn) have accumulated in the lake sediments as a result of unregulated discharges and because this alkaline lake has no natural outlet. Lesser flamingos (Phoeniconaias minor) at Lake Nakuru feed predominantly on the cyanobacterium Spirulina platensis, and because of their filter-feeding mechanism, they are susceptible to exposure to particle-bound metals. Trace metal adsorption isotherms to lake sediments and S. platensis were obtained under simulated lake conditions, and a mathematical model was developed to predict metal exposure via filter feeding based on predicted trace metal phase distribution. Metal adsorption to suspended solids followed the trend Pb {much_gt} Zn > Cr > Cu, and isotherms were linear up to 60 {micro}g/L. Adsorption to S. platensis cells followed the trend Pb {much_gt} Zn > Cu > Cr and fit Langmuir isotherms for Cr, Cu and Zn and a linear isotherm for Pb. Predicted phase distributions indicated that Cr and Pb in Lake Nakuru are predominantly associated with suspended solids, whereas Cu and Zn are distributed more evenly between the dissolved phase and particulate phases of both S. platensis and suspended solids. Based on established flamingo feeding rates and particle size selection, predicted Cr and Pb exposure occurs predominantly through ingestion of suspended solids, whereas Cu and Zn exposure occurs through ingestion of both suspended solids and S. platensis. For the lake conditions at the time of sampling, predicted ingestion rates based on measured metal concentrations in lake suspended solids were 0.71, 6.2, 0.81, and 13 mg/kg-d for Cr, Cu, Pb, and Zn, respectively.

  13. Assessing Lake Trophic Status: A Proportional Odds Logistic Regression Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lake trophic state classifications are good predictors of ecosystem condition and are indicative of both ecosystem services (e.g., recreation and aesthetics), and disservices (e.g., harmful algal blooms). Methods for classifying trophic state are based off the foundational work o...

  14. Bifurcations of optimal vector fields in the shallow lake model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kiseleva, T.; Wagener, F.

    2009-01-01

    The solution structure of the set of optimal solutions of the shallow lake problem, a problem of optimal pollution management, is studied as we vary the values of the system parameters: the natural resilience, the relative importance of the resource for social welfare and the future discount rate.

  15. Bifurcations of optimal vector fields in the shallow lake model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kiseleva, T.; Wagener, F.O.O.

    2010-01-01

    The solution structure of the set of optimal solutions of the shallow lake problem, a problem of optimal pollution management, is studied as we vary the values of the system parameters: the natural resilience, the relative importance of the resource for social welfare and the future discount rate.

  16. Wellness Circles: The Alkali Lake Model in Community Recovery Processes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ben, Leon W.; And Others

    The case study described here was conducted as a doctoral research project at Northern Arizona University. The study documents the success of the Shuswop Indian Band of Alkali Lake, British Columbia (Canada), in their 15-year battle with alcoholism, once the people themselves decided on recovery. The study looks back at the 95 percent recovery…

  17. Revision and proposed modification for a total maximum daily load model for Upper Klamath Lake, Oregon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wherry, Susan A.; Wood, Tamara M.; Anderson, Chauncey W.

    2015-01-01

    This report presents Phase 2 of the review and development of the mass balance water-quality model, originally developed in 2001, that guided establishment of the phosphorus (P) total maximum daily load (TMDL) for Upper Klamath and Agency Lakes, Oregon. The purpose of Phase 2 was to incorporate a longer (19-year) set of external phosphorus loading data into the lake TMDL model than had originally been available, and to develop a proof-of-concept method for modeling algal mortality and the consequent decrease in chlorophyll a that had not been possible with the 2001 TMDL model formulation.

  18. Specific-activity and concentration model applied to cesium movement in an oligotrophic lake

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vanderploeg, H.A.; Booth, R.S.; Clark, F.H.

    1975-01-01

    A linear systems-analysis model was derived to simulate the time-dependent dynamics of specific activity and concentration of radionuclides in aquatic systems. Transfer coefficients were determined for movement of 137 Cs in the components of an oligotrophic lake. These coefficients were defined in terms of basic environmental and ecological data so that the model can be applied to a wide variety of sites. Simulations with a model that ignored sediment--water interactions predicted much higher 137 Cs specific activities in the lake water and biota than did those with the complete model. Comparing 137 Cs concentrations predicted by the model with concentrations reported for the biota of an experimentally contaminated oligotrophic lake indicated that the transfer coefficients derived for the biota are adequate

  19. Incorporation of Fine-Grained Sediment Erodibility Measurements into Sediment Transport Modeling, Capitol Lake, Washington

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stevens, Andrew W.; Gelfenbaum, Guy; Elias, Edwin; Jones, Craig

    2008-01-01

    Capitol Lake was created in 1951 with the construction of a concrete dam and control gate that prevented salt-water intrusion into the newly formed lake and regulated flow of the Deschutes River into southern Puget Sound. Physical processes associated with the former tidally dominated estuary were altered, and the dam structure itself likely caused an increase in retention of sediment flowing into the lake from the Deschutes River. Several efforts to manage sediment accumulation in the lake, including dredging and the construction of sediment traps upriver, failed to stop the lake from filling with sediment. The Deschutes Estuary Feasibility Study (DEFS) was carried out to evaluate the possibility of removing the dam and restoring estuarine processes as an alternative ongoing lake management. An important component of DEFS was the creation of a hydrodynamic and sediment transport model of the restored Deschutes Estuary. Results from model simulations indicated that estuarine processes would be restored under each of four restoration alternatives, and that over time, the restored estuary would have morphological features similar to the predam estuary. The model also predicted that after dam-removal, a large portion of the sediment eroded from the lake bottom would be deposited near the Port of Olympia and a marina located in lower Budd Inlet seaward of the present dam. The volume of sediment transported downstream was a critical piece of information that managers needed to estimate the total cost of the proposed restoration project. However, the ability of the model to predict the magnitude of sediment transport in general and, in particular, the volume of sediment deposition in the port and marina was limited by a lack of information on the erodibility of fine-grained sediments in Capitol Lake. Cores at several sites throughout Capitol Lake were collected between October 31 and November 1, 2007. The erodibility of sediments in the cores was later determined in the

  20. Simulating Microwave Scattering for Wetland Vegetation in Poyang Lake, Southeast China, Using a Coherent Scattering Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jingjuan Liao

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available We developed a polarimetric coherent electromagnetic scattering model for Poyang Lake wetland vegetation. Realistic canopy structures including curved leaves and the lodging situation of the vegetation were taken into account, and the situation at the ground surface was established using an Advanced Integral Equation Model combined with Oh’s 2002 model. This new model can reasonably describe the coherence effect caused by the phase differences of the electromagnetic fields scattered from different particles by different scattering mechanisms. We obtained good agreement between the modeling results and C-band data from the Radarsat-2 satellite. A simulation of scattering from the vegetation in Poyang Lake showed that direct vegetation scattering and the single-ground-bounce mechanism are the dominant scattering mechanisms in the C-band and L-band, while the effects of the double-ground-bounce mechanism are very small. We note that the curvature of the leaves and the lodging characteristics of the vegetation cannot be ignored in the modeling process. Monitoring soil moisture in the Poyang Lake wetland with the C-band data was not feasible because of the density and depth of Poyang Lake vegetation. When the density of Poyang Lake Carex increases, the backscattering coefficient either decreases or remains stable.

  1. Utilization of GIS modeling in geoenvironmental studies of Qaroun Lake, El Fayoum Depression, Egypt

    Science.gov (United States)

    Attia, Abdelaal H.; El-Sayed, Salah Abdelwahab; El-Sabagh, Moustafa E.

    2018-02-01

    Qaroun Lake, the study area, is a natural protectorate located at the northern part of El Fayoum Depression, Egypt. An integrated approach including hydrochemistry, mineralogy of sediments and GIS analysis and modeling was conducted in order to determine the different geoenvironmental parameters affecting the lake environmental system. Forty two environmental water and sediment samples were collected from the lake and relevant drains in 2013. The water samples were analyzed for major ions and trace elements and the sediment ones were analyzed for clay and non-clay minerals. This study showed that the saline water of the lake (31490 alkalies and strong acids. The order of ionic dominance was Na+ > Mg2+ > Ca2+ > K+ - Cl- > SO42- > HCO3- > CO32-. The water salt assemblages were KCl - NaCl - Na2SO4 - MgSO4 - CaSO4 - Ca(HCO3)2 reflecting a mixed water type. The contents of NaCl, Na2SO4 and MgSO4 salts were found to be fully controlled with the lake depths. The hydrogeochemical investigations revealed that the evaporation concentration is the primary process of the lake water evolution. The presence of trace elements in the lake water is essentially of allochtonous origin. The GIS-based maps indicated that the concentrations of Zn, Co, Mo, Pb, F and Cd elements in water had increased in the eastern part of the lake; meanwhile, the contents of NO3- ions had increased in the southwestern part indicating that these parts were the most vulnerable to the potential pollution with such elements. The XRD analysis revealed the existence of different mineral assemblages (quartz, kaolinite, goethite, calcite, halite, hematite, feldspar, gypsum, dolomite and saponite) in bottom sediments. The mineral concentrations varied greatly from place to another place along the lake and their distributions were asymmetric. The dominant minerals were the quartz and calcite. The mineralogical compositions of sediments were highly affected by the natural and man-mad activities. The most effective

  2. Future recovery of acidified lakes in southern Norway predicted by the MAGIC model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. F. Wright

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available The acidification model MAGIC was used to predict recovery of small lakes in southernmost Norway to future reduction of acid deposition. A set of 60 small headwater lakes was sampled annually from either 1986 (35 lakes or 1995 (25 lakes. Future acid deposition was assumed to follow implementation of current agreed legislation, including the Gothenburg protocol. Three scenarios of future N retention were used. Calibration of the sites to the observed time trends (1990–1999 as well as to one point in time considerably increased the robustness of the predictions. The modelled decline in SO4* concentrations in the lakes over the period 1986–2001 matched the observed decline closely. This strongly suggests that soil processes such as SO4 adsorption/desorption and S reduction/oxidation do not delay the response of runoff by more than a few years. The slope of time trends in ANC over the period of observations was less steep than that observed, perhaps because the entire soil column does not interact actively with the soilwater that emerges as runoff. The lakes showed widely differing time trends in NO3 concentrations over the period 1986–2000. The observed trends were not simulated by any of the three N scenarios. A model based on the C/N ratio in soil was insufficient to account for N retention and leaching at these sites. The large differences in modelled NO3, however, produced only minor differences in ANC between the three scenarios. In the year 2050, the difference was only about 5 μeq l-1. Future climate change entailing warming and increased precipitation could also increase NO3 loss to surface waters. SO4* concentrations in the lakes were predicted to decrease in parallel with the future decreases in S deposition. Fully 80% of the expected decline to year 2025, however, had already occurred by the year 2000. Similarly, ANC concentrations were predicted to increase in the future, but again about 67% of the expected change has already

  3. Modeling spring-summer phytoplankton bloom in Lake Michigan with and without riverine nutrient loading

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, Lin; Wang, Jia; Hunter, Timothy; Wang, Dongxiao; Vanderploeg, Henry A.

    2017-11-01

    There were two phytoplankton blooms captured by remote sensing in Lake Michigan in 1998, one from March to May, and one during June. In this paper, those phytoplankton blooms were simulated by a coupled physical-biological model, driven by observed meteorological forcing in 1998. The model reasonably reproduced the lake currents. The biological model results, with and without riverine nutrient loading, were compared with the remote sensing data. A 3-month-long donut-like phytoplankton bloom that appeared in southern Lake Michigan was reasonably well simulated only when riverine input was included, indicating the importance of riverine nutrient input for supporting the growth of phytoplankton in Lake Michigan. The model with riverine input also captured a second event-driven phytoplankton bloom during June with weaker magnitude that occurred in mid-south Lake Michigan, which lasted for about 20 days. The major reason for the weaker bloom in June was that vertical mixing in the hydrodynamic model was too weak (leading to a mixed-layer depth of 20 m) to bring the bottom nutrient-rich water up to the epilimnion. High chlorophyll concentration that persisted in Green Bay for almost a year was simulated with less intensity.

  4. On the contribution of lakes in predicting near-surface temperature in a global weather forecasting model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Stockdale

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available The impact of lakes in numerical weather prediction is investigated in a set of global simulations performed with the ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System (IFS. A Fresh shallow-water Lake model (FLake is introduced allowing the coupling of both resolved and subgrid lakes (those that occupy less than 50% of a grid-box to the IFS atmospheric model. Global fields for the lake ancillary conditions (namely lake cover and lake depth, as well as initial conditions for the lake physical state, have been derived to initialise the forecast experiments. The procedure for initialising the lake variables is described and verified with particular emphasis on the importance of surface water temperature and freezing conditions. The response of short-range near surface temperature to the representation of lakes is examined in a set of forecast experiments covering one full year. It is shown that the impact of subgrid lakes is beneficial, reducing forecast error over the Northern territories of Canada and over Scandinavia particularly in spring and summer seasons. This is mainly attributed to the lake thermal effect, which delays the temperature response to seasonal radiation forcing.

  5. Stable isotope and hydrogeochemical studies of Beaver Lake and Lake Radok, MacRobertson Land, East Antarctica

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wand, U.; Hermichen, W.D.; Hoefling, R.; Muehle, K.

    1987-01-01

    Beaver Lake and Lake Radok, the largest known epishelf and the deepest freshwater lake on the Antarctic continent, respectively, were isotopically (δ 2 H, δ 18 O) and hydrogeochemically studied. Lake Radok is an isothermal and non-stratified, i.e. homogeneous water body, while Beaver Lake is stratified with respect to temperature, salinity and isotopic composition. The results for the latter attest to freshwater (derived from snow and glacier melt) overlying seawater. (author)

  6. A DPSIR model for ecological security assessment through indicator screening: a case study at Dianchi Lake in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Zhen; Zhou, Jingqing; Loaiciga, Hugo; Guo, Huaicheng; Hong, Song

    2015-01-01

    Given the important role of lake ecosystems in social and economic development, and the current severe environmental degradation in China, a systematic diagnosis of the ecological security of lakes is essential for sustainable development. A Driving-force, Pressure, Status, Impact, and Risk (DPSIR) model, combined with data screening for lake ecological security assessment was developed to overcome the disadvantages of data selection in existing assessment methods. Correlation and principal component analysis were used to select independent and representative data. The DPSIR model was then applied to evaluate the ecological security of Dianchi Lake in China during 1988-2007 using an ecological security index. The results revealed a V-shaped trend. The application of the DPSIR model with data screening provided useful information regarding the status of the lake's ecosystem, while ensuring information efficiency and eliminating multicollinearity. The modeling approach described here is practical and operationally efficient, and provides an attractive alternative approach to assess the ecological security of lakes.

  7. Antarctic Ice Velocity Data

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This compilation of recent ice velocity data of the Antarctic ice sheet is intended for use by the polar scientific community. The data are presented in tabular form...

  8. Measurements of evaporation from a mine void lake and testing of modelling approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    McJannet, David; Hawdon, Aaron; Van Niel, Tom; Boadle, Dave; Baker, Brett; Trefry, Mike; Rea, Iain

    2017-12-01

    Pit lakes often form in the void that remains after open cut mining operations cease. As pit lakes fill, hydrological and geochemical processes interact and these need to be understood for appropriate management actions to be implemented. Evaporation is important in the evolution of pit lakes as it acts to concentrate various constituents, controls water level and changes the thermal characteristics of the water body. Despite its importance, evaporation from pit lakes is poorly understood. To address this, we used an automated floating evaporation pan and undertook measurements at a pit lake over a 12 month period. We also developed a new procedure for correcting floating pan evaporation estimates to lake evaporation estimates based on surface temperature differences. Total annual evaporation was 2690 mm and reflected the strong radiation inputs, high temperatures and low humidity experienced in this region. Measurements were used to test the performance of evaporation estimates derived using both pan coefficient and aerodynamic modelling techniques. Daily and monthly evaporation estimates were poorly reproduced using pan coefficient techniques and their use is not recommended for such environments. Aerodynamic modelling was undertaken using a range of input datasets that may be available to those who manage pit lake systems. Excellent model performance was achieved using over-water or local over-land meteorological observations, particularly when the sheltering effects of the pit were considered. Model performance was reduced when off-site data were utilised and differences between local and off-site vapor pressure and wind speed were found to be the major cause.

  9. Large-scale modeled contemporary and future water temperature estimates for 10774 Midwestern U.S. Lakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winslow, Luke A.; Hansen, Gretchen J. A.; Read, Jordan S.; Notaro, Michael

    2017-04-01

    Climate change has already influenced lake temperatures globally, but understanding future change is challenging. The response of lakes to changing climate drivers is complex due to the nature of lake-atmosphere coupling, ice cover, and stratification. To better understand the diversity of lake responses to climate change and give managers insight on individual lakes, we modelled daily water temperature profiles for 10,774 lakes in Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin for contemporary (1979-2015) and future (2020-2040 and 2080-2100) time periods with climate models based on the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5, the worst-case emission scenario. In addition to lake-specific daily simulated temperatures, we derived commonly used, ecologically relevant annual metrics of thermal conditions for each lake. We include all supporting lake-specific model parameters, meteorological drivers, and archived code for the model and derived metric calculations. This unique dataset offers landscape-level insight into the impact of climate change on lakes.

  10. Large-scale modeled contemporary and future water temperature estimates for 10774 Midwestern U.S. Lakes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winslow, Luke A; Hansen, Gretchen J A; Read, Jordan S; Notaro, Michael

    2017-04-25

    Climate change has already influenced lake temperatures globally, but understanding future change is challenging. The response of lakes to changing climate drivers is complex due to the nature of lake-atmosphere coupling, ice cover, and stratification. To better understand the diversity of lake responses to climate change and give managers insight on individual lakes, we modelled daily water temperature profiles for 10,774 lakes in Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin for contemporary (1979-2015) and future (2020-2040 and 2080-2100) time periods with climate models based on the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5, the worst-case emission scenario. In addition to lake-specific daily simulated temperatures, we derived commonly used, ecologically relevant annual metrics of thermal conditions for each lake. We include all supporting lake-specific model parameters, meteorological drivers, and archived code for the model and derived metric calculations. This unique dataset offers landscape-level insight into the impact of climate change on lakes.

  11. Challenges in understanding, modelling, and mitigating Lake Outburst Flood Hazard: experiences from Central Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mergili, Martin; Schneider, Demian; Andres, Norina; Worni, Raphael; Gruber, Fabian; Schneider, Jean F.

    2010-05-01

    Lake Outburst Floods can evolve from complex process chains like avalanches of rock or ice that produce flood waves in a lake which may overtop and eventually breach glacial, morainic, landslide, or artificial dams. Rising lake levels can lead to progressive incision and destabilization of a dam, to enhanced ground water flow (piping), or even to hydrostatic failure of ice dams which can cause sudden outflow of accumulated water. These events often have a highly destructive potential because a large amount of water is released in a short time, with a high capacity to erode loose debris, leading to a powerful debris flow with a long travel distance. The best-known example of a lake outburst flood is the Vajont event (Northern Italy, 1963), where a landslide rushed into an artificial lake which spilled over and caused a flood leading to almost 2000 fatalities. Hazards from the failure of landslide dams are often (not always) fairly manageable: most breaches occur in the first few days or weeks after the landslide event and the rapid construction of a spillway - though problematic - has solved some hazardous situations (e.g. in the case of Hattian landslide in 2005 in Pakistan). Older dams, like Usoi dam (Lake Sarez) in Tajikistan, are usually fairly stable, though landsildes into the lakes may create floodwaves overtopping and eventually weakening the dams. The analysis and the mitigation of glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) hazard remains a challenge. A number of GLOFs resulting in fatalities and severe damage have occurred during the previous decades, particularly in the Himalayas and in the mountains of Central Asia (Pamir, Tien Shan). The source area is usually far away from the area of impact and events occur at very long intervals or as singularities, so that the population at risk is usually not prepared. Even though potentially hazardous lakes can be identified relatively easily with remote sensing and field work, modeling and predicting of GLOFs (and also

  12. Multi-year analysis of distributed glacier mass balance modelling and equilibrium line altitude on King George Island, Antarctic Peninsula

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    U. Falk

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available The South Shetland Islands are located at the northern tip of the Antarctic Peninsula (AP. This region was subject to strong warming trends in the atmospheric surface layer. Surface air temperature increased about 3 K in 50 years, concurrent with retreating glacier fronts, an increase in melt areas, ice surface lowering and rapid break-up and disintegration of ice shelves. The positive trend in surface air temperature has currently come to a halt. Observed surface air temperature lapse rates show a high variability during winter months (standard deviations up to ±1.0 K (100 m−1 and a distinct spatial heterogeneity reflecting the impact of synoptic weather patterns. The increased mesocyclonic activity during the wintertime over the past decades in the study area results in intensified advection of warm, moist air with high temperatures and rain and leads to melt conditions on the ice cap, fixating surface air temperatures to the melting point. Its impact on winter accumulation results in the observed negative mass balance estimates. Six years of continuous glaciological measurements on mass balance stake transects as well as 5 years of climatological data time series are presented and a spatially distributed glacier energy balance melt model adapted and run based on these multi-year data sets. The glaciological surface mass balance model is generally in good agreement with observations, except for atmospheric conditions promoting snow drift by high wind speeds, turbulence-driven snow deposition and snow layer erosion by rain. No drift in the difference between simulated mass balance and mass balance measurements can be seen over the course of the 5-year model run period. The winter accumulation does not suffice to compensate for the high variability in summer ablation. The results are analysed to assess changes in meltwater input to the coastal waters, specific glacier mass balance and the equilibrium line altitude (ELA. The

  13. Glacial lake outburst flood risk assessment using combined approaches of remote sensing, GIS and dam break modelling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arpit Aggarwal

    2016-01-01

    and digital elevation model. The volume and depth have been computed using empirical formulae, and other parameters such as cross-sections from the lake to outlet etc. have been prepared in ArcGIS 9.3. The GLOF which can be triggered by Lake 140 was modelled and simulated using MIKE-11 software's hydrodynamic module. As a result, flood values and hydrograph have been obtained. The flood at lake site comes out to be 2611.136 cumec which get mitigated to 1417.844 cumec at the outlet.

  14. Technical evaluation of a total maximum daily load model for Upper Klamath and Agency Lakes, Oregon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, Tamara M.; Wherry, Susan A.; Carter, James L.; Kuwabara, James S.; Simon, Nancy S.; Rounds, Stewart A.

    2013-01-01

    We reviewed a mass balance model developed in 2001 that guided establishment of the phosphorus total maximum daily load (TMDL) for Upper Klamath and Agency Lakes, Oregon. The purpose of the review was to evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of the model and to determine whether improvements could be made using information derived from studies since the model was first developed. The new data have contributed to the understanding of processes in the lakes, particularly internal loading of phosphorus from sediment, and include measurements of diffusive fluxes of phosphorus from the bottom sediments, groundwater advection, desorption from iron oxides at high pH in a laboratory setting, and estimates of fluxes of phosphorus bound to iron and aluminum oxides. None of these processes in isolation, however, is large enough to account for the episodically high values of whole-lake internal loading calculated from a mass balance, which can range from 10 to 20 milligrams per square meter per day for short periods. The possible role of benthic invertebrates in lake sediments in the internal loading of phosphorus in the lake has become apparent since the development of the TMDL model. Benthic invertebrates can increase diffusive fluxes several-fold through bioturbation and biodiffusion, and, if the invertebrates are bottom feeders, they can recycle phosphorus to the water column through metabolic excretion. These organisms have high densities (1,822–62,178 individuals per square meter) in Upper Klamath Lake. Conversion of the mean density of tubificid worms (Oligochaeta) and chironomid midges (Diptera), two of the dominant taxa, to an areal flux rate based on laboratory measurements of metabolic excretion of two abundant species suggested that excretion by benthic invertebrates is at least as important as any of the other identified processes for internal loading to the water column. Data from sediment cores collected around Upper Klamath Lake since the development of the

  15. Modelling of subglacial hydrological development during a rapid lake drainage event, West Greenland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dow, C. F.; Kulessa, B.; Pimentel, S.; Tsai, V. C.; Doyle, S. H.; Rutt, I. C.; Jones, G. A.; Booth, A. D.; Hubbard, A.

    2012-12-01

    We present results from a local-scale model of subglacial hydrological development during a rapid lake drainage event on the Russell Glacier catchment in West Greenland. Previous models applied to rapid lake drainage events include a turbulent radial model (Tsai and Rice, 2010) and a 1-D flowband model (Pimentel and Flowers, 2011). Both models have limitations for application to lake drainage events. For the former, the radial extent of water flow is restricted to several ice thicknesses and no provision is made for the development of basal channels. For the latter model, the input of water directly from the lake to the bed without modulation by englacial flow, together with the fact that lateral basal flux is neglected, causes unrealistic subglacial pressure levels. To resolve these limitations, we link the two models together, thus allowing both local radial flux and downstream development of a coupled efficient and distributed drainage system. Our model is constrained by inputs from fieldwork completed in summer 2010 at a rapid lake drainage site in the land-terminating region of West Greenland. Passive seismic records indicate the region of basal water injection. Reflection seismic amplitude vs. angle (AVA) surveys allow analysis of the basal material characteristics. Lake drainage rate and differential GPS vertical and horizontal motion records are used as constraints for our model outputs. Our preliminary results suggest that large basal channels do not necessarily form during the rapid drainage of supraglacial lakes. A lack of an efficient drainage system has an impact on the local ice dynamics and the treatment of lake drainage events in larger-scale dynamic models. References: Pimentel, S and Flowers, G. (2011). A numerical study of hydrologically driven glacier dynamics and subglacial flooding, Proceedings of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Science, 467 (2126): doi: 10.1098/rspa.2010.0211. Tsai, V.C. and Rice, J.R. (2010). A

  16. Shallow Lake Habitat Quality Dynamic Evaluation Based on InVEST Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, S.; Wang, X.

    2017-12-01

    Abstract: Water level changes in a shallow lake always introduce dramatic land pattern changes. To achieve sustainable ecosystem service, it is necessary to evaluate habitat quality dynamic and its spatio-temporal variation resulted from water level changes, which can provide a scientific basis for protection of biodiversity and planning of wetland ecological system. Landsat data in the spring was chosen to obtain landscape data at different times based on the high, moderate and low water level of Baiyangdian Shallow Lake. We used the InVEST to evaluate the habitat quality, habitat degradation, and habitat scarcity. The result showed that: 1) the water level of shallow lake changes from high to low lead to an obvious landscape pattern changes and habitat degradation. 2) the most change area occurred in northwestward and southwest of Baiyangdian Shallow Lake, which there was a 21 percent of suitable habitat and 42 percent of moderately suitable habitat lost. Our findings show that the changes of water level in the shallow lake would have a strong relationship with the habitat quality.Keywords: Habitat quality; Habitat degradation; Water level changes; InVEST model; Shallow lake

  17. Measured and modelled trends in European mountain lakes: results of fifteen years of cooperative studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michela ROGORA

    2004-02-01

    Full Text Available Papers included in this Special Issue of the Journal of Limnology present results of long-term ecological research on mountain lakes throughout Europe. Most of these studies were performed over the last 15 years in the framework of some EU-funded projects, namely AL:PE 1 and 2, MOLAR and EMERGE. These projects together considered a high number of remote lakes in different areas or lake districts in Europe. Central to the projects was the idea that mountain lakes, while subject to the same chemical and biological processes controlling lowland lakes, are more sensitive to any input from their surroundings and can be used as earlywarning indicators of atmospheric pollution and climate change. A first section of this special issue deal with the results of long-term monitoring programmes at selected key-sites. A second section focuse on site-specific and regional applications of an acidification model designed to reconstruct and predict long-term changes in the chemistry of mountain lakes.

  18. Modeling potential scenarios of the Tangjiashan Lake outburst and risk assessment in the downstream valley

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kidyaeva, Vera; Chernomorets, Sergey; Krylenko, Inna; Wei, Fangqiang; Petrakov, Dmitry; Su, Pengcheng; Yang, Hongjuan; Xiong, Junnan

    2017-09-01

    This research is devoted to Tangjiashan Lake, a quake landslide-dammed lake, situated in Sichuan Province, China, which was formed by a landslide triggered by the Wenchuan Earthquake on 12 May 2008. A STREAM_2D two-dimensional hydrodynamic model of Russia was applied to simulate the process of two flood scenarios: 1, lake dam outbreak, and 2, dam overtopping. An artificial dam outbreak was made after the earthquake to lower the water level of the lake in 2008, which led to a great flood with a maximum water discharge of more than 6400 m3/s. The negative impact of the flood was reduced by a timely evacuation of the population. Flood hazards still remain in the event of new landslides into the lake and lake dam overtopping (Scenario 2), in which case a maximum water discharge at the dam crest would reach 5000 m3/s, placing the population of Shabacun and Shilingzi villages in the zone of flood impact.

  19. Parameter sensitivity analysis of a 1-D cold region lake model for land-surface schemes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guerrero, José-Luis; Pernica, Patricia; Wheater, Howard; Mackay, Murray; Spence, Chris

    2017-12-01

    Lakes might be sentinels of climate change, but the uncertainty in their main feedback to the atmosphere - heat-exchange fluxes - is often not considered within climate models. Additionally, these fluxes are seldom measured, hindering critical evaluation of model output. Analysis of the Canadian Small Lake Model (CSLM), a one-dimensional integral lake model, was performed to assess its ability to reproduce diurnal and seasonal variations in heat fluxes and the sensitivity of simulated fluxes to changes in model parameters, i.e., turbulent transport parameters and the light extinction coefficient (Kd). A C++ open-source software package, Problem Solving environment for Uncertainty Analysis and Design Exploration (PSUADE), was used to perform sensitivity analysis (SA) and identify the parameters that dominate model behavior. The generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) was applied to quantify the fluxes' uncertainty, comparing daily-averaged eddy-covariance observations to the output of CSLM. Seven qualitative and two quantitative SA methods were tested, and the posterior likelihoods of the modeled parameters, obtained from the GLUE analysis, were used to determine the dominant parameters and the uncertainty in the modeled fluxes. Despite the ubiquity of the equifinality issue - different parameter-value combinations yielding equivalent results - the answer to the question was unequivocal: Kd, a measure of how much light penetrates the lake, dominates sensible and latent heat fluxes, and the uncertainty in their estimates is strongly related to the accuracy with which Kd is determined. This is important since accurate and continuous measurements of Kd could reduce modeling uncertainty.

  20. Modelling reversibility of central European mountain lakes from acidification: Part II - the Tatra Mountains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kopácek, Jirí; Cosby, Bernard J.; Majer, Vladimír; Stuchlík, Even; Veselý, Josef

    A dynamic, process-based model of surface water acidification, MAGIC7, has been applied to four representative alpine lakes in the Tatra Mountains (Slovakia and Poland). The model was calibrated for a set of 12 to 22-year experimental records of lake water composition. Surface water and soil chemistry were reconstructed from 1860 to 2002 and forecast to 2050 based on the reduction in sulphur and nitrogen emissions presupposed by the Gothenburg Protocol. Relatively small changes in the soil C:N ratios were not sufficient to simulate observed changes in NO3‾ concentrations, so an alternative empirical approach of changes in terrestrial N uptake was applied. Measured sulphate sorption isotherms did not allow calibration of the pattern of sulphate response in the lakes, indicating that other mechanisms of S release were also important. The lake water chemistry exhibited significant changes during both the acidification advance (1860 to 1980s) and retreat (1980s to 2010). An increase in lake water concentrations of strong acid anions (SAA; 104-149 μeq l-1) was balanced by a decline in HCO3‾ (13-62 μeq l-1) and an increase in base cations (BC; 42-72 μeq l-1), H+ (0-18 μeq l-1), and Alin+ (0-26 μeq l-1). The carbonate buffering system was depleted in three lakes. In contrast, lake water concentrations of SAA, BC, H+, and Alin+ decreased by 57-82, 28-42, 0-11, and 0-22 μeq l-1, respectively, the carbonate buffering system was re-established, and HCO3‾ increased by 1-21 μeq l-1 during the chemical reversal from atmospheric acidification (by 2000). The MAGIC7 model forecasts a slight continuation in this reversal for the next decade and new steady-state conditions thereafter. Gran alkalinity should come back to 1950s levels (0-71 μeq l-1) in all lakes after 2010. Partial recovery of the soil pool of exchangeable base cations can be expected in one catchment, while only conservation of the current conditions is predicted for three lakes. Even though the pre

  1. Development of a GIS interface for WEPP Model application to Great Lakes forested watersheds

    Science.gov (United States)

    J. R. Frankenberger; S. Dun; D. C. Flanagan; J. Q. Wu; W. J. Elliot

    2011-01-01

    This presentation will highlight efforts on development of a new online WEPP GIS interface, targeted toward application in forested regions bordering the Great Lakes. The key components and algorithms of the online GIS system will be outlined. The general procedures used to provide input to the WEPP model and to display model output will be demonstrated.

  2. Modeling the Thickness of Perennial Ice Covers on Stratified Lakes of the Taylor Valley, Antarctica

    Science.gov (United States)

    Obryk, M. K.; Doran, P. T.; Hicks, J. A.; McKay, C. P.; Priscu, J. C.

    2016-01-01

    A one-dimensional ice cover model was developed to predict and constrain drivers of long term ice thickness trends in chemically stratified lakes of Taylor Valley, Antarctica. The model is driven by surface radiative heat fluxes and heat fluxes from the underlying water column. The model successfully reproduced 16 years (between 1996 and 2012) of ice thickness changes for west lobe of Lake Bonney (average ice thickness = 3.53 m; RMSE = 0.09 m, n = 118) and Lake Fryxell (average ice thickness = 4.22 m; RMSE = 0.21 m, n = 128). Long-term ice thickness trends require coupling with the thermal structure of the water column. The heat stored within the temperature maximum of lakes exceeding a liquid water column depth of 20 m can either impede or facilitate ice thickness change depending on the predominant climatic trend (temperature cooling or warming). As such, shallow (lakes without deep temperature maxima are more sensitive indicators of climate change. The long-term ice thickness trends are a result of surface energy flux and heat flux from the deep temperature maximum in the water column, the latter of which results from absorbed solar radiation.

  3. Development of radionuclide transport model in the ecosystem of brackish lake Obuchi

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ueda, Shinji; Kondo, Kunio; Chikuchi, Yuki; Inaba, Jiro

    2003-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to develop a computer code for a radionuclide transport model in Lake Obuchi which is adjacent to nuclear fuel cycle facilities including a nuclear spent-fuel reprocessing plant under construction in Rokkasho-mura. The lake is brackish and this fact makes the entry mode of radionuclides into the lake and its ecosystem very characteristic. For the construction of the code, it is important to incorporate the characteristics of the ecosystem as well as the hydraulic movements into the model. In the present study we report the biological parameters related to the transport model obtained from field observations and a laboratory experiment. We also give results from development of an advective-diffusion model. Monthly field observations revealed that 18 to 47 species of phytoplankton, 9 to 20 species of zooplankton and 0 to 21 species of benthos were present in the lake. A marked seasonal change was observed in the dominant species for both planktons. Mean carbon masses of DOC, POC, phytoplankton and zooplankton in the lake were 16 x 10 4 , 5.9 x 10 4 , 3.7 x 10 4 and 0.20 x 10 4 kg-C, respectively. Phytoplanktons of 10 species in 8 genera were isolated and maintained in a bacteria-free medium in the laboratory. Some physiological and metabolic characteristics of the planktons were studied under those conditions. An advective-diffusion model was developed for particles in the lake. Field observations showed that the model could simulate formation and elimination of the water current. (author)

  4. Modeling the Hydrological Regime of Turkana Lake (Kenya, Ethiopia) by Combining Spatially Distributed Hydrological Modeling and Remote Sensing Datasets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anghileri, D.; Kaelin, A.; Peleg, N.; Fatichi, S.; Molnar, P.; Roques, C.; Longuevergne, L.; Burlando, P.

    2017-12-01

    Hydrological modeling in poorly gauged basins can benefit from the use of remote sensing datasets although there are challenges associated with the mismatch in spatial and temporal scales between catchment scale hydrological models and remote sensing products. We model the hydrological processes and long-term water budget of the Lake Turkana catchment, a transboundary basin between Kenya and Ethiopia, by integrating several remote sensing products into a spatially distributed and physically explicit model, Topkapi-ETH. Lake Turkana is the world largest desert lake draining a catchment of 145'500 km2. It has three main contributing rivers: the Omo river, which contributes most of the annual lake inflow, the Turkwel river, and the Kerio rivers, which contribute the remaining part. The lake levels have shown great variations in the last decades due to long-term climate fluctuations and the regulation of three reservoirs, Gibe I, II, and III, which significantly alter the hydrological seasonality. Another large reservoir is planned and may be built in the next decade, generating concerns about the fate of Lake Turkana in the long run because of this additional anthropogenic pressure and increasing evaporation driven by climate change. We consider different remote sensing datasets, i.e., TRMM-V7 for precipitation, MERRA-2 for temperature, as inputs to the spatially distributed hydrological model. We validate the simulation results with other remote sensing datasets, i.e., GRACE for total water storage anomalies, GLDAS-NOAH for soil moisture, ERA-Interim/Land for surface runoff, and TOPEX/Poseidon for satellite altimetry data. Results highlight how different remote sensing products can be integrated into a hydrological modeling framework accounting for their relative uncertainties. We also carried out simulations with the artificial reservoirs planned in the north part of the catchment and without any reservoirs, to assess their impacts on the catchment hydrological

  5. Simulation of Lake Victoria Circulation Patterns Using the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nyamweya, Chrispine; Desjardins, Christopher; Sigurdsson, Sven; Tomasson, Tumi; Taabu-Munyaho, Anthony; Sitoki, Lewis; Stefansson, Gunnar

    2016-01-01

    Lake Victoria provides important ecosystem services including transport, water for domestic and industrial uses and fisheries to about 33 million inhabitants in three East African countries. The lake plays an important role in modulating regional climate. Its thermodynamics and hydrodynamics are also influenced by prevailing climatic and weather conditions on diel, seasonal and annual scales. However, information on water temperature and circulation in the lake is limited in space and time. We use a Regional Oceanographic Model System (ROMS) to simulate these processes from 1st January 2000 to 31st December 2014. The model is based on real bathymetry, river runoff and atmospheric forcing data using the bulk flux algorithm. Simulations show that the water column exhibits annual cycles of thermo-stratification (September-May) and mixing (June-August). Surface water currents take different patterns ranging from a lake-wide northward flow to gyres that vary in size and number. An under flow exists that leads to the formation of upwelling and downwelling regions. Current velocities are highest at the center of the lake and on the western inshore waters indicating enhanced water circulation in those areas. However, there is little exchange of water between the major gulfs (especially Nyanza) and the open lake, a factor that could be responsible for the different water quality reported in those regions. Findings of the present study enhance understanding of the physical processes (temperature and currents) that have an effect on diel, seasonal, and annual variations in stratification, vertical mixing, inshore-offshore exchanges and fluxes of nutrients that ultimately influence the biotic distribution and trophic structure. For instance information on areas/timing of upwelling and vertical mixing obtained from this study will help predict locations/seasons of high primary production and ultimately fisheries productivity in Lake Victoria.

  6. Simulation of Lake Victoria Circulation Patterns Using the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chrispine Nyamweya

    Full Text Available Lake Victoria provides important ecosystem services including transport, water for domestic and industrial uses and fisheries to about 33 million inhabitants in three East African countries. The lake plays an important role in modulating regional climate. Its thermodynamics and hydrodynamics are also influenced by prevailing climatic and weather conditions on diel, seasonal and annual scales. However, information on water temperature and circulation in the lake is limited in space and time. We use a Regional Oceanographic Model System (ROMS to simulate these processes from 1st January 2000 to 31st December 2014. The model is based on real bathymetry, river runoff and atmospheric forcing data using the bulk flux algorithm. Simulations show that the water column exhibits annual cycles of thermo-stratification (September-May and mixing (June-August. Surface water currents take different patterns ranging from a lake-wide northward flow to gyres that vary in size and number. An under flow exists that leads to the formation of upwelling and downwelling regions. Current velocities are highest at the center of the lake and on the western inshore waters indicating enhanced water circulation in those areas. However, there is little exchange of water between the major gulfs (especially Nyanza and the open lake, a factor that could be responsible for the different water quality reported in those regions. Findings of the present study enhance understanding of the physical processes (temperature and currents that have an effect on diel, seasonal, and annual variations in stratification, vertical mixing, inshore-offshore exchanges and fluxes of nutrients that ultimately influence the biotic distribution and trophic structure. For instance information on areas/timing of upwelling and vertical mixing obtained from this study will help predict locations/seasons of high primary production and ultimately fisheries productivity in Lake Victoria.

  7. Modelling interactive effects of multiple disturbances on a coastal lake ecosystem: Implications for management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Hannah F E; Özkundakci, Deniz; McBride, Chris G; Pilditch, Conrad A; Allan, Mathew G; Hamilton, David P

    2018-02-01

    Coastal lakes, also known as temporarily open/closed estuaries or intermittently closed and open lakes and lagoons, are common worldwide, are typically sites of high biodiversity and often contain abundant macrophyte populations. Anthropogenic stressors such as increased nutrient and sediment loading have adverse effects on submerged macrophytes, and when closed, the lack of tidal flushing makes coastal lakes highly susceptible to eutrophication. Lake openings to the sea may occur naturally, but many coastal lakes are also opened artificially, often to reduce inundation of surrounding land. Here we used a coupled hydrodynamic-ecological model (DYRESM-CAEDYM), modified to include dynamic feedback between submerged macrophyte biomass and sediment resuspension, to explore the interactive effects of multiple disturbances (openings, eutrophication and climate change) on the dynamics of primary producers in a coastal lake (Waituna Lagoon) in South Island, New Zealand. Our results indicate that with exposure to high external nutrient loads, the frequent disturbances caused by artificial openings prevent sustained dominance by algae (algal biomass averaged 192 g C m -2 with artificial openings compared to 453 g C m -2 with no openings). However, under current nutrient loading, climate change is likely to enhance the effects of eutrophication on the system (algal biomass averaged 227 g C m -2 with climate change compared with 192 g C m -2 for current climate). The model provides a decision-support tool to guide lake management in setting limits for nutrient loads and managing the opening regime, in order to prevent eutrophication and the potential collapse of the macrophyte community. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Improving the precision of lake ecosystem metabolism estimates by identifying predictors of model uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rose, Kevin C.; Winslow, Luke A.; Read, Jordan S.; Read, Emily K.; Solomon, Christopher T.; Adrian, Rita; Hanson, Paul C.

    2014-01-01

    Diel changes in dissolved oxygen are often used to estimate gross primary production (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (ER) in aquatic ecosystems. Despite the widespread use of this approach to understand ecosystem metabolism, we are only beginning to understand the degree and underlying causes of uncertainty for metabolism model parameter estimates. Here, we present a novel approach to improve the precision and accuracy of ecosystem metabolism estimates by identifying physical metrics that indicate when metabolism estimates are highly uncertain. Using datasets from seventeen instrumented GLEON (Global Lake Ecological Observatory Network) lakes, we discovered that many physical characteristics correlated with uncertainty, including PAR (photosynthetically active radiation, 400-700 nm), daily variance in Schmidt stability, and wind speed. Low PAR was a consistent predictor of high variance in GPP model parameters, but also corresponded with low ER model parameter variance. We identified a threshold (30% of clear sky PAR) below which GPP parameter variance increased rapidly and was significantly greater in nearly all lakes compared with variance on days with PAR levels above this threshold. The relationship between daily variance in Schmidt stability and GPP model parameter variance depended on trophic status, whereas daily variance in Schmidt stability was consistently positively related to ER model parameter variance. Wind speeds in the range of ~0.8-3 m s–1 were consistent predictors of high variance for both GPP and ER model parameters, with greater uncertainty in eutrophic lakes. Our findings can be used to reduce ecosystem metabolism model parameter uncertainty and identify potential sources of that uncertainty.

  9. Impacts of freshwater changes on Antarctic sea ice in an eddy-permitting sea-ice–ocean model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Haid

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available In a warming climate, satellite data indicate that the sea ice extent around Antarctica has increased over the last decades. One of the suggested explanations is the stabilizing effect of increased mass loss of the Antarctic ice sheet. Here, we investigate the sea ice response to changes in both the amount and the spatial distribution of freshwater input to the ocean by comparing a set of numerical sensitivity simulations with additional supply of water at the Antarctic ocean surface. We analyze the short-term response of the sea ice cover and the on-shelf water column to variations in the amount and distribution of the prescribed surface freshwater flux.Our results confirm that enhancing the freshwater input can increase the sea ice extent. Our experiments show a negative development of the sea ice extent only for extreme freshwater additions. We find that the spatial distribution of freshwater is of great influence on sea ice concentration and thickness as it affects sea ice dynamics and thermodynamics. For strong regional contrasts in the freshwater addition the dynamic response dominates the local change in sea ice, which generally opposes the thermodynamic response. Furthermore, we find that additional coastal runoff generally leads to fresher and warmer dense shelf waters.

  10. A biogeochemical model of Lake Pusiano (North Italy and its use in the predictability of phytoplankton blooms: first preliminary results

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alessandro OGGIONI

    2006-02-01

    Full Text Available This study reports the first preliminary results of the DYRESM-CAEDYM model application to a mid size sub-alpine lake (Lake Pusiano North Italy. The in-lake modelling is a part of a more general project called Pusiano Integrated Lake/Catchment project (PILE whose final goal is to understand the hydrological and trophic relationship between lake and catchment, supporting the restoration plan of the lake through field data analysis and numerical models. DYRESM is a 1D-3D hydrodynamics model for predicting the vertical profile of temperature, salinity and density. CAEDYM is multi-component ecological model, used here as a phytoplankton-zooplankton processes based model, which includes algorithms to simulate the nutrient cycles within the water column as well as the air-water gas exchanges and the water-sediments fluxes. The first results of the hydrodynamics simulations underline the capability of the model to accurately simulate the surface temperature seasonal trend and the thermal gradient whereas, during summer stratification, the model underestimates the bottom temperature of around 2 °C. The ecological model describes the epilimnetic reactive phosphorus (PO4 depletion (due to the phytoplankton uptake and the increase in PO4 concentrations in the deepest layers of the lake (due to the mineralization processes and the sediments release. In terms of phytoplankton dynamics the model accounts for the Planktothrix rubescens dominance during the whole season, whereas it seems to underestimate the peak in primary production related to both the simulated algal groups (P. rubescens and the rest of the other species aggregated in a single class. The future aims of the project are to complete the model parameterization and to connect the in-lake and the catchment modelling in order to gain an integrated view of the lake-catchment ecosystem as well as to develop a three dimensional model of the lake.

  11. Modeled tephra ages from lake sediments, base of Redoubt Volcano, Alaska

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schiff, C J; Kaufman, D S; Wallace, K L; Werner, A; Ku, T L; Brown, T A

    2007-02-25

    A 5.6-m-long lake sediment core from Bear Lake, Alaska, located 22 km southeast of Redoubt Volcano, contains 67 tephra layers deposited over the last 8750 cal yr, comprising 15% of the total thickness of recovered sediment. Using 12 AMS {sup 14}C ages, along with the {sup 137}Cs and {sup 210}Pb activities of recent sediment, we evaluated different models to determine the age-depth relation of sediment, and to determine the age of each tephra deposit. The age model is based on a cubic smooth spline function that was passed through the adjusted tephra-free depth of each dated layer. The estimated age uncertainty of the 67 tephras averages {+-} 105 yr (1{sigma}). Tephra-fall frequency at Bear Lake was among the highest during the past 500 yr, with eight tephras deposited compared to an average of 3.7 per 500 yr over the last 8500 yr. Other periods of increased tephra fall occurred 2500-3500, 4500-5000, and 7000-7500 cal yr. Our record suggests that Bear Lake experienced extended periods (1000-2000 yr) of increased tephra fall separated by shorter periods (500-1000 yr) of apparent quiescence. The Bear Lake sediment core affords the most comprehensive tephrochronology from the base of the Redoubt Volcano to date, with an average tephra-fall frequency of once every 130 yr.

  12. Quantifying Groundwater Nutrient Discharge to a Large Glacial Lake using a Watershed Loading Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schilling, K. E.

    2015-12-01

    Groundwater discharge to a lake is an important, if often neglected, component to water and nutrient budgets. Point measurements of groundwater discharge into a lake are prone to error, so in this study of 15.57 km2 West Lake Okoboji, Iowa, a watershed-based groundwater loading model was developed. Located in northwest Iowa, West Lake Okoboji is considered one of Iowa's premier tourist destinations but is threatened by eutrophication. A network of 21 observation wells was installed in the watershed to evaluate groundwater recharge and quality under representative land cover types in a range of landscape positions. Our objective was to develop typical groundwater responses from various land cover-landscape associations for scaling up to unmonitored areas in the watershed. Results indicated substantial variation in groundwater recharge and quality in the 3847 ha watershed. Recharge was similar among land covers under vegetation but was much lower under urban pavement. Nitrate-nitrogen concentrations were highest under cropped fields and lowest under perennial grassland and golf courses, whereas dissolved phosphorus was highest under residential and urban areas, including an engineered bioswale. A groundwater load allocation model indicated 91% of the nitrate load was from cropped areas and 7% from residential areas. In contrast, P loads were more equally divided among cropped fields (43%), perennial grass (36%) and residential (19%) areas. Based on the mass of nitrate and P in the lake, groundwater accounts for 71% and 18% of the nutrient inputs, respectively.

  13. Lake Area Analysis Using Exponential Smoothing Model and Long Time-Series Landsat Images in Wuhan, China

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    Gonghao Duan

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The loss of lake area significantly influences the climate change in a region, and this loss represents a serious and unavoidable challenge to maintaining ecological sustainability under the circumstances of lakes that are being filled. Therefore, mapping and forecasting changes in the lake is critical for protecting the environment and mitigating ecological problems in the urban district. We created an accessible map displaying area changes for 82 lakes in the Wuhan city using remote sensing data in conjunction with visual interpretation by combining field data with Landsat 2/5/7/8 Thematic Mapper (TM time-series images for the period 1987–2013. In addition, we applied a quadratic exponential smoothing model to forecast lake area changes in Wuhan city. The map provides, for the first time, estimates of lake development in Wuhan using data required for local-scale studies. The model predicted a lake area reduction of 18.494 km2 in 2015. The average error reached 0.23 with a correlation coefficient of 0.98, indicating that the model is reliable. The paper provided a numerical analysis and forecasting method to provide a better understanding of lake area changes. The modeling and mapping results can help assess aquatic habitat suitability and property planning for Wuhan lakes.

  14. The Development of a Customization Framework for the WRF Model over the Lake Victoria Basin, Eastern Africa on Seasonal Timescales

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    R. Argent

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Lake Victoria, Africa, supports millions of people. To produce reliable climate projections, it is desirable to successfully model the rainfall over the lake accurately. An initial step is taken here with customization of the Weather, Research, and Forecast (WRF model. Of particular interest is an asymmetrical rainfall pattern across the lake basin, due to a diurnal land-lake breeze. The main aim is to present a customization framework for use over the lake. This framework is developed by conducting several series of model runs to investigate aspects of the customization. The runs are analyzed using Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission rainfall data and Climatic Research Unit temperature data. The study shows that the choice of parameters and lake surface temperature initialization can significantly alter the results. Also, the optimal physics combinations for the climatology may not necessarily be suitable for all circumstances, such as extreme years. The study concludes that WRF is unable to reproduce the pattern across the lake. The temperature of the lake is too cold and this prevents the diurnal land-lake breeze reversal. Overall, this study highlights the importance of customizing a model to the region of research and presents a framework through which this may be achieved.

  15. Use the predictive models to explore the key factors affecting phytoplankton succession in Lake Erhai, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Rong; Wang, Huan; Chen, Jun; Shen, Hong; Deng, Xuwei

    2018-01-01

    Increasing algae in Lake Erhai has resulted in frequent blooms that have not only led to water ecosystem degeneration but also seriously influenced the quality of the water supply and caused extensive damage to the local people, as the lake is a water resource for Dali City. Exploring the key factors affecting phytoplankton succession and developing predictive models with easily detectable parameters for phytoplankton have been proven to be practical ways to improve water quality. To this end, a systematic survey focused on phytoplankton succession was conducted over 2 years in Lake Erhai. The data from the first study year were used to develop predictive models, and the data from the second year were used for model verification. The seasonal succession of phytoplankton in Lake Erhai was obvious. The dominant groups were Cyanobacteria in the summer, Chlorophyta in the autumn and Bacillariophyta in the winter. The developments and verification of predictive models indicated that compared to phytoplankton biomass, phytoplankton density is more effective for estimating phytoplankton variation in Lake Erhai. CCA (canonical correlation analysis) indicated that TN (total nitrogen), TP (total phosphorus), DO (dissolved oxygen), SD (Secchi depth), Cond (conductivity), T (water temperature), and ORP (oxidation reduction potential) had significant influences (p < 0.05) on the phytoplankton community. The CCA of the dominant species found that Microcystis was significantly influenced by T. The dominant Chlorophyta, Psephonema aenigmaticum and Mougeotia, were significantly influenced by TN. All results indicated that TN and T were the two key factors driving phytoplankton succession in Lake Erhai.

  16. Water quality and algal community dynamics of three deepwater lakes in Minnesota utilizing CE-QUAL-W2 models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Erik A.; Kiesling, Richard L.; Galloway, Joel M.; Ziegeweid, Jeffrey R.

    2014-01-01

    Water quality, habitat, and fish in Minnesota lakes will potentially be facing substantial levels of stress in the coming decades primarily because of two stressors: (1) land-use change (urban and agricultural) and (2) climate change. Several regional and statewide lake modeling studies have identified the potential linkages between land-use and climate change on reductions in the volume of suitable lake habitat for coldwater fish populations. In recent years, water-resource scientists have been making the case for focused assessments and monitoring of sentinel systems to address how these stress agents change lakes over the long term. Currently in Minnesota, a large-scale effort called “Sustaining Lakes in a Changing Environment” is underway that includes a focus on monitoring basic watershed, water quality, habitat, and fish indicators of 24 Minnesota sentinel lakes across a gradient of ecoregions, depths, and nutrient levels. As part of this effort, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources, developed predictive water quality models to assess water quality and habitat dynamics of three select deepwater lakes in Minnesota. The three lakes (Lake Carlos in Douglas County, Elk Lake in Clearwater County, and Trout Lake in Cook County) were assessed under recent (2010–11) meteorological conditions. The three selected lakes contain deep, coldwater habitats that remain viable during the summer months for coldwater fish species. Hydrodynamics and water-quality characteristics for each of the three lakes were simulated using the CE-QUAL-W2 model, which is a carbon-based, laterally averaged, two-dimensional water-quality model. The CE-QUAL-W2 models address the interaction between nutrient cycling, primary production, and trophic dynamics to predict responses in the distribution of temperature and oxygen in lakes. The CE-QUAL-W2 models for all three lakes successfully predicted water temperature, on the basis of the

  17. Bayesian inference of a lake water quality model by emulating its posterior density

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dietzel, A.; Reichert, P.

    2014-10-01

    We use a Gaussian stochastic process emulator to interpolate the posterior probability density of a computationally demanding application of the biogeochemical-ecological lake model BELAMO to accelerate statistical inference of deterministic model and error model parameters. The deterministic model consists of a mechanistic description of key processes influencing the mass balance of nutrients, dissolved oxygen, organic particles, and phytoplankton and zooplankton in the lake. This model is complemented by a Gaussian stochastic process to describe the remaining model bias and by Normal, independent observation errors. A small subsample of the Markov chain representing the posterior of the model parameters is propagated through the full model to get model predictions and uncertainty estimates. We expect this approximation to be more accurate at only slightly higher computational costs compared to using a Normal approximation to the posterior probability density and linear error propagation to the results as we did in an earlier paper. The performance of the two techniques is compared for a didactical example as well as for the lake model. As expected, for the didactical example, the use of the emulator led to posterior marginals of the model parameters that are closer to those calculated by Markov chain simulation using the full model than those based on the Normal approximation. For the lake model, the new technique proved applicable without an excessive increase in computational requirements, but we faced challenges in the choice of the design data set for emulator calibration. As the posterior is a scalar function of the parameters, the suggested technique is an alternative to the emulation of a potentially more complex, structured output of the simulation model that allows for the use of a less case-specific emulator. This is at the cost that still the full model has to be used for prediction (which can be done with a smaller, approximately independent subsample

  18. Developing A Model for Lake Ice Phenology Using Satellite Remote Sensing Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skoglund, S. K.; Weathers, K. C.; Norouzi, H.; Prakash, S.; Ewing, H. A.

    2017-12-01

    Many northern temperate freshwater lakes are freezing over later and thawing earlier. This shift in timing, and the resulting shorter duration of seasonal ice cover, is expected to impact ecological processes, negatively affecting aquatic species and the quality of water we drink. Long-term, direct observations have been used to analyze changes in ice phenology, but those data are sparse relative to the number of lakes affected. Here we develop a model to utilize remote sensing data in approximating the dates of ice-on and ice-off for many years over a variety of lakes. Day and night surface temperatures from MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) Aqua and Terra (MYD11A1 and MOD11A1 data products) for 2002-2017 were utilized in combination with observed ice-on and ice-off dates of Lake Auburn, Maine, to determine the ability of MODIS data to match ground-based observations. A moving average served to interpolate MODIS temperature data to fill data gaps from cloudy days. The nighttime data were used for ice-off, and the daytime measurements were used for ice-on predictions to avoid fluctuations between day and night ice/water status. The 0˚C intercepts of those data were used to mark approximate days of ice-on or ice-off. This revealed that approximations for ice-off dates were satisfactory (average ±8.2 days) for Lake Auburn as well as for Lake Sunapee, New Hampshire (average ±8.1 days), while approximations for Lake Auburn ice-on were less accurate and showed consistently earlier-than-observed ice-on dates (average -33.8 days). The comparison of observed and remotely sensed Lake Auburn ice cover duration showed relative agreement with a correlation coefficient of 0.46. Other remote sensing observations, such as the new GOES-R satellite, and further exploration of the ice formation process can improve ice-on approximation methods. The model shows promise for estimating ice-on, ice-off, and ice cover duration for northern temperate lakes.

  19. An integrated system dynamics model developed for managing lake water quality at the watershed scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Hui; Benoit, Gaboury; Liu, Tao; Liu, Yong; Guo, Huaicheng

    2015-05-15

    A reliable system simulation to relate socioeconomic development with water environment and to comprehensively represent a watershed's dynamic features is important. In this study, after identifying lake watershed system processes, we developed a system dynamics modeling framework for managing lake water quality at the watershed scale. Two reinforcing loops (Development and Investment Promotion) and three balancing loops (Pollution, Resource Consumption, and Pollution Control) were constituted. Based on this work, we constructed Stock and Flow Diagrams that embedded a pollutant load model and a lake water quality model into a socioeconomic system dynamics model. The Dianchi Lake in Yunnan Province, China, which is the sixth largest and among the most severely polluted freshwater lakes in China, was employed as a case study to demonstrate the applicability of the model. Water quality parameters considered in the model included chemical oxygen demand (COD), total nitrogen (TN), and total phosphorus (TP). The business-as-usual (BAU) scenario and three alternative management scenarios on spatial adjustment of industries and population (S1), wastewater treatment capacity construction (S2), and structural adjustment of agriculture (S3), were simulated to assess the effectiveness of certain policies in improving water quality. Results showed that S2 is most effective scenario, and the COD, TN, and TP concentrations in Caohai in 2030 are 52.5, 10.9, and 0.8 mg/L, while those in Waihai are 9.6, 1.2, and 0.08 mg/L, with sustained development in the watershed. Thus, the model can help support the decision making required in development and environmental protection strategies. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Modeling level change in Lake Urmia using hybrid artificial intelligence approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Esbati, M.; Ahmadieh Khanesar, M.; Shahzadi, Ali

    2017-06-01

    The investigation of water level fluctuations in lakes for protecting them regarding the importance of these water complexes in national and regional scales has found a special place among countries in recent years. The importance of the prediction of water level balance in Lake Urmia is necessary due to several-meter fluctuations in the last decade which help the prevention from possible future losses. For this purpose, in this paper, the performance of adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) for predicting the lake water level balance has been studied. In addition, for the training of the adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system, particle swarm optimization (PSO) and hybrid backpropagation-recursive least square method algorithm have been used. Moreover, a hybrid method based on particle swarm optimization and recursive least square (PSO-RLS) training algorithm for the training of ANFIS structure is introduced. In order to have a more fare comparison, hybrid particle swarm optimization and gradient descent are also applied. The models have been trained, tested, and validated based on lake level data between 1991 and 2014. For performance evaluation, a comparison is made between these methods. Numerical results obtained show that the proposed methods with a reasonable error have a good performance in water level balance prediction. It is also clear that with continuing the current trend, Lake Urmia will experience more drop in the water level balance in the upcoming years.

  1. Modeling aluminum-silicon chemistries and application to Australian acidic playa lakes as analogues for Mars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marion, G.M.; Crowley, J.K.; Thomson, B.J.; Kargel, J.S.; Bridges, N.T.; Hook, S.J.; Baldridge, A.; Brown, A.J.; Ribeiro da Luz, B.; de Souza, Filho C.R.

    2009-01-01

    Recent Mars missions have stimulated considerable thinking about the surficial geochemical evolution of Mars. Among the major relevant findings are the presence in Meridiani Planum sediments of the mineral jarosite (a ferric sulfate salt) and related minerals that require formation from an acid-salt brine and oxidizing environment. Similar mineralogies have been observed in acidic saline lake sediments in Western Australia (WA), and these lakes have been proposed as analogues for acidic sedimentary environments on Mars. The prior version of the equilibrium chemical thermodynamic FREZCHEM model lacked Al and Si chemistries that are needed to appropriately model acidic aqueous geochemistries on Earth and Mars. The objectives of this work were to (1) add Al and Si chemistries to the FREZCHEM model, (2) extend these chemistries to low temperatures (mineral precipitation behavior of acidic Australian lakes and hypothetical Martian brines. FREZCHEM is an equilibrium chemical thermodynamic model parameterized for concentrated electrolyte solutions using the Pitzer approach for the temperature range from mineral parameterizations were based on experimental data. Aluminum hydroxide and silicon mineral parameterizations were based on Gibbs free energy and enthalpy data. New aluminum and silicon parameterizations added 12 new aluminum/silicon minerals to this Na-K-Mg-Ca-Fe(II)-Fe(III)-Al-H-Cl-Br-SO4-NO3-OH-HCO3-CO3-CO2-O2-CH4-Si-H2O system that now contain 95 solid phases. There were similarities, differences, and uncertainties between Australian acidic, saline playa lakes and waters that likely led to the Burns formation salt accumulations on Mars. Both systems are similar in that they are dominated by (1) acidic, saline ground waters and sediments, (2) Ca and/or Mg sulfates, and (3) iron precipitates such as jarosite and hematite. Differences include: (1) the dominance of NaCl in many WA lakes, versus the dominance of Fe-Mg-Ca-SO4 in Meridiani Planum, (2) excessively low K

  2. ECONOMETRIC MODELLING OD THE INFLUENCE OF LAKE WATER QUALITY CHANGES ON FISHING ECONOMY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marek Antoni Ramczyk

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The econometric model can be a precise instrument for the analysis of the impact of the natural environment's degradation on fishing economy. This paper aims at analysing the influence of the water quality changes in lake Charzykowskie on the fishing economy. This dissertation present the results of a research on the lake water pollution's impact on fishing economy. The economic-ecological models have been constructed, explaining the changes of economic effects of the lake fishery in the conditions of an increasing water pollution in the epilimnion on the example of the catch of Rutilus rutilus, Abramis brama, Blicca bjoerkna, Coregonus albula, Coregonus lavaretus, Anguilla anguilla and Esox lucius in Lake Charzykowskie. Performed empirical research looked into the influence of the environmental factors on the size of fish catch. Calculations and analysis show clearly that though the habitat factors do influence the catch size of each studied fish species, they do it with different intensity and in various combinations. Both lake water quality and climate factors changes cause measurable effects on fishing industry of lake Charzykowskie. Among all the examined Rutilus rutilus, Abramis brama and Blicca bjoerkna the highest environmental requirements concerning water quality has Blicca bjoerkna. Whereas Abramis brama has slightly higher environmental requirements than Rutilus rutilus. Empirical calculations showed as well that Coregonus albula and Coregonus lavaretus have considerably higher water cleanness requirements than Rutilus rutilus, Abramis brama and Blicca bjoerkna. While when talking about Rutilus rutilus, Abramis brama and Blicca bjoerkna, most water characteristics still rather stimulated these species' development, when it comes to Coregonus albula and Coregonus lavaretus, in general they suppressed their development. The model has also proved quite high habitat requierements of Anquilla anquilla and correctness of the thesis that

  3. IMPORTANCE OF TEMPERATURE IN MODELLING PCB BIOACCUMULATION IN THE LAKE MICHIGAN FOOD WEB

    Science.gov (United States)

    In most food web models, the exposure temperature of a food web is typically defined using a single spatial compartment. This essentially assumes that the predator and prey are exposed to the same temperature. However, in a large water body such as Lake Michigan, due to the spati...

  4. Hydrodynamic modeling of a reservoir used to supply water to Belem (Lake Agua Preta, Para, Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Lourdes Souza Santos

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Lake Agua Preta is used by the Sanitation Company of Para (Cosanpa to supply water to the Belem Metropolitan Region. This study aims to use the Base System Modeling Program Environmental Hydrodynamics (Sisbahia model to simulate seasonal hydrodynamic conditions in the lake and identify areas with the greatest silting. The model results revealed an identical distribution of the velocity module for each month of the year. However, at the outlet of the lake, a water channel variation speed of 0.28–0.32 m s-1 was observed. Furthermore, at the inlet of the lake, vortex silting tended to occur, as verified by bathymetry. Sedimentation mainly occurred during periods of low rainfall, which is when Cosanpa increases the inflow of water to maintain the reservoir level and this leads to an increase in sediments in suspension. With the model, it was possible to identify locations with higher rates of sedimentation, and in the future, such data can serve as an effective tool for managing this water resource.

  5. Prediction of inflows into Lake Kariba using a combination of physical and empirical models

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Muchuru, S

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available -making processes. This study investigates the use of a combination of physical and empirical models to predict seasonal inflows into Lake Kariba in southern Africa. Two predictions systems are considered. The first uses antecedent seasonal rainfall totals over...

  6. Prediction of lake surface temperature using the air2water model: guidelines, challenges, and future perspectives

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sebastiano Piccolroaz

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Water temperature plays a primary role in controlling a wide range of physical, geochemical and ecological processes in lakes, with considerable influences on lake water quality and ecosystem functioning. Being able to reliably predict water temperature is therefore a desired goal, which stimulated the development of models of different type and complexity, ranging from simple regression-based models to more sophisticated process-based numerical models. However, both types of models suffer of some limitations: the first are not able to address some fundamental physical processes as e.g., thermal stratification, while the latter generally require a large amount of data in input, which are not always available. In this work, lake surface temperature is simulated by means of air2water, a hybrid physically-based/statistical model, which is able to provide a robust, predictive understanding of LST dynamics knowing air temperature only. This model showed performances that are comparable with those obtained by using process based models (a root mean square error on the order of 1°C, at daily scale, while retaining the simplicity and parsimony of regression-based models, thus making it a good candidate for long-term applications.The aim of the present work is to provide the reader with useful and practical guidelines for proper use of the air2water model and for critical analysis of results. Two case studies have been selected for the analysis: Lake Superior and Lake Erie. These are clear and emblematic examples of a deep and a shallow temperate lake characterized by markedly different thermal responses to external forcing, thus are ideal for making the results of the analysis the most general and comprehensive. Particular attention is paid to assessing the influence of missing data on model performance, and to evaluating when an observed time series is sufficiently informative for proper model calibration or, conversely, data are too scarce thus

  7. Modelling the physical multiphase interactions of HNO3 between snow and air on the Antarctic Plateau (Dome C) and coast (Halley)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chan, Hoi Ga; Frey, Markus M.; King, Martin D.

    2018-02-01

    Emissions of nitrogen oxide (NOx = NO + NO2) from the photolysis of nitrate (NO3-) in snow affect the oxidising capacity of the lower troposphere especially in remote regions of high latitudes with little pollution. Current air-snow exchange models are limited by poor understanding of processes and often require unphysical tuning parameters. Here, two multiphase models were developed from physically based parameterisations to describe the interaction of nitrate between the surface layer of the snowpack and the overlying atmosphere. The first model is similar to previous approaches and assumes that below a threshold temperature, To, the air-snow grain interface is pure ice and above To a disordered interface (DI) emerges covering the entire grain surface. The second model assumes that air-ice interactions dominate over all temperatures below melting of ice and that any liquid present above the eutectic temperature is concentrated in micropockets. The models are used to predict the nitrate in surface snow constrained by year-round observations of mixing ratios of nitric acid in air at a cold site on the Antarctic Plateau (Dome C; 75°06' S, 123°33' E; 3233 m a.s.l.) and at a relatively warm site on the Antarctic coast (Halley; 75°35' S, 26°39' E; 35 m a.s.l). The first model agrees reasonably well with observations at Dome C (Cv(RMSE) = 1.34) but performs poorly at Halley (Cv(RMSE) = 89.28) while the second model reproduces with good agreement observations at both sites (Cv(RMSE) = 0.84 at both sites). It is therefore suggested that in winter air-snow interactions of nitrate are determined by non-equilibrium surface adsorption and co-condensation on ice coupled with solid-state diffusion inside the grain, similar to Bock et al. (2016). In summer, however, the air-snow exchange of nitrate is mainly driven by solvation into liquid micropockets following Henry's law with contributions to total surface snow NO3- concentrations of 75 and 80 % at Dome C and Halley

  8. Freshwater lakes--a potential source for aquaculture activities--a model study on Perumal Lake, Cuddalore, Tamil Nadu.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Usha, R; Ramalingam, K; Bharathi Rajan, U D

    2006-10-01

    The freshwater Perumal lake located at Cuddalore was assessed for its suitability and potential for aquaculture practices. Various hydrobiological parameters determined reveals that the various physicochemical characteristics are with in normal range of values. The DO level, BOD and COD values determined in the lake revealed the consequences of community activities and pollution possibilities. The primary productivity data revealed maximum productivity during March which infer that the lake is unaffected by anthropogenic disturbance and community contamination. The bacterial count remained higher during the monsoon periods, which characterize profuse rainfall and storm water discharge into the lake. The microfauna includes zooplankter such as cladocerans, copepods, rotifers and ostracods. Benthos include carps, catfishes, mullets and prawns. The above study revealed that the various parameters in the lake conform to the levels suited for freshwater fish culture and represents a resource for scientific management.

  9. Coastal Water Quality Modeling in Tidal Lake: Revisited with Groundwater Intrusion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, C.

    2016-12-01

    A new method for predicting the temporal and spatial variation of water quality, with accounting for a groundwater effect, has been proposed and applied to a water body partially connected to macro-tidal coastal waters in Korea. The method consists of direct measurement of environmental parameters, and it indirectly incorporates a nutrients budget analysis to estimate the submarine groundwater fluxes. Three-dimensional numerical modeling of water quality has been used with the directly collected data and the indirectly estimated groundwater fluxes. The applied area is Saemangeum tidal lake that is enclosed by 33km-long sea dyke with tidal openings at two water gates. Many investigations of groundwater impact reveal that 10 50% of nutrient loading in coastal waters comes from submarine groundwater, particularly in the macro-tidal flat, as in the west coast of Korea. Long-term monitoring of coastal water quality signals the possibility of groundwater influence on salinity reversal and on the excess mass outbalancing the normal budget in Saemangeum tidal lake. In the present study, we analyze the observed data to examine the influence of submarine groundwater, and then a box model is demonstrated for quantifying the influx and efflux. A three-dimensional numerical model has been applied to reproduce the process of groundwater dispersal and its effect on the water quality of Saemangeum tidal lake. The results show that groundwater influx during the summer monsoon then contributes significantly, 20% more than during dry season, to water quality in the tidal lake.

  10. A mercury transport and fate model (LM2-mercury) for mass budget assessment of mercury cycling in Lake Michigan

    Science.gov (United States)

    LM2-Mercury, a mercury mass balance model, was developed to simulate and evaluate the transport, fate, and biogeochemical transformations of mercury in Lake Michigan. The model simulates total suspended solids (TSS), disolved organic carbon (DOC), and total, elemental, divalent, ...

  11. Stream, Lake, and Reservoir Management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dai, Jingjing; Mei, Ying; Chang, Chein-Chi

    2017-10-01

    This review on stream, lake, and reservoir management covers selected 2016 publications on the focus of the following sections: Stream, lake, and reservoir management • Water quality of stream, lake, and reservoir • Reservoir operations • Models of stream, lake, and reservoir • Remediation and restoration of stream, lake, and reservoir • Biota of stream, lake, and reservoir • Climate effect of stream, lake, and reservoir.

  12. Reconstruction of a Palaeo-Subglacial Lake Network in Alberta, Canada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Livingstone, S. J.; Utting, D.; Clark, C.; Ruffell, A.; Pawley, S. M.; Atkinson, N.; Mallon, G.

    2014-12-01

    Subglacial lakes have been widely documented since first being identified beneath the Antarctic Ice Sheet in the 1960s and comprise a significant component of the subglacial hydrological system (Wright & Siegert, 2011). However, their investigation is largely limited to contemporary ice masses despite critical information that could be gleaned from palaeo-subglacial lake studies, including: (i) their influence on meltwater drainage, ice flow and ice streams; (ii) details about how they relate to palaeo-floods, ice dynamics and sub-Milankovitch-scale climate events; and (iii) as archives of long-term Quaternary climate change. They are also readily available, we can sample the sediments and maps the landforms with ease and we have comprehensive information on the lake-bed properties. Output from numerical ice sheet models and the simple Shreve equation approach has been used to diagnose where subglacial lakes are likely to have occurred in the geological record (Livingstone et al. 2013). However, their identification remains controversial due to the difficulty in distinguishing their signature from proglacial lake deposits (see Livingstone et al. 2012). Here, we present new geomorphological, geophysical and sedimentological evidence for the existence of a palaeo-subglacial lake network beneath the suture zone of the former Cordilleran and Laurentide ice sheets. These relatively small (~1 km diameter) palaeo-subglacial lakes manifest as flat-spots in a drumlin field and are perched in upland areas behind small ridges. The flat-spots, which comprise basins in-filled with diamicton, are associated with subglacial meltwater channels and eskers that we interpret to document lake drainage events. References: Livingstone, S.J., et al., 2012. Quaternary Science Reviews,55, 88-110. Livingstone, S.J., et al., 2013. Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 375, 13-33. Wright A.P., Siegert M.J. 2011. In: Siegert, M.J., Kennicutt, C., Bindschadler, B. (Eds.). Subglacial Antarctic

  13. Parameter sensitivity analysis of a 1-D cold region lake model for land-surface schemes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J.-L. Guerrero

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Lakes might be sentinels of climate change, but the uncertainty in their main feedback to the atmosphere – heat-exchange fluxes – is often not considered within climate models. Additionally, these fluxes are seldom measured, hindering critical evaluation of model output. Analysis of the Canadian Small Lake Model (CSLM, a one-dimensional integral lake model, was performed to assess its ability to reproduce diurnal and seasonal variations in heat fluxes and the sensitivity of simulated fluxes to changes in model parameters, i.e., turbulent transport parameters and the light extinction coefficient (Kd. A C++ open-source software package, Problem Solving environment for Uncertainty Analysis and Design Exploration (PSUADE, was used to perform sensitivity analysis (SA and identify the parameters that dominate model behavior. The generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE was applied to quantify the fluxes' uncertainty, comparing daily-averaged eddy-covariance observations to the output of CSLM. Seven qualitative and two quantitative SA methods were tested, and the posterior likelihoods of the modeled parameters, obtained from the GLUE analysis, were used to determine the dominant parameters and the uncertainty in the modeled fluxes. Despite the ubiquity of the equifinality issue – different parameter-value combinations yielding equivalent results – the answer to the question was unequivocal: Kd, a measure of how much light penetrates the lake, dominates sensible and latent heat fluxes, and the uncertainty in their estimates is strongly related to the accuracy with which Kd is determined. This is important since accurate and continuous measurements of Kd could reduce modeling uncertainty.

  14. Numerical Modelling of the 1995 Dinar Earthquake Effects on Hydrodynamic Regime of Egirdir Lake

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Murat Aksel

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available The effect of earthquakes on closed and semi-closed water systems is a research topic that has been studied for many years. The lack of continuous measurement systems in closed and semi-closed water systems is insufficient to examine and investigate what has happened during the earthquake. The morphological structures of the lakes indicate the characteristics of the events that occurred during an earthquake. Due to the developing technology and research request, some monitoring, measurement stations are installed in some lakes, gulfs, estuaries, etc. systems. Today, both higher quality measurement and field data can be obtained, and more complicated processes are being explored with the help of faster computers. Computational fluid dynamics is currently used because of the difficulty in calculating hydrodynamic responses of lakes due to earthquake. Investigations on the effects of the earthquake condition on the desired closed / semi-closed water system studies by using numerical modelling have been continuing increasingly in recent years. Both the quality of the bathymetric data gathered from the field, the continuous acquisition of both dynamic water level measurement systems, and the use of new technologies and systems in the search for base materials contribute to the fact that we have more knowledge of the formation, behavior and effects of the sorts. In this study, 1995 Dinar Earthquake effects on Egirdir Lake hydrodynamic regime was investigated by numerical modelling approach.

  15. Numerical Modelling Approaches for Assessing Improvements to the Flow Circulation in a Small Lake

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cheng He

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Kamaniskeg Lake is a long, narrow, and deep small lake located in the northern part of Ontario, Canada. The goals of this paper were to examine various options to improve the water quality in the northern part of the lake by altering the local hydraulic flow conditions. Towards this end, a preliminary screening suggested that the flow circulation could be increased around a central island (Mask Island in the northern part of the lake by opening up an existing causeway connecting the mainland and central island. Three-dimensional (3D hydraulic and transport models were adopted in this paper to investigate the hydraulic conditions under various wind forces and causeway structures. The modelling results show that opening the causeway in a few places is unlikely to generate a large flow circulation around the central island. Full circulation only appears to be possible if the causeway is fully removed and a strong wind blows in a favourable direction. The possible reasons for existing water quality variations at the intake of a local WTP (water treatment plant are also explored in the paper.

  16. A simple lumped model to convert air temperature into surface water temperature in lakes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Piccolroaz

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Water temperature in lakes is governed by a complex heat budget, where the estimation of the single fluxes requires the use of several hydro-meteorological variables that are not generally available. In order to address this issue, we developed Air2Water, a simple physically based model to relate the temperature of the lake superficial layer (epilimnion to air temperature only. The model has the form of an ordinary differential equation that accounts for the overall heat exchanges with the atmosphere and the deeper layer of the lake (hypolimnion by means of simplified relationships, which contain a few parameters (from four to eight in the different proposed formulations to be calibrated with the combined use of air and water temperature measurements. The calibration of the parameters in a given case study allows for one to estimate, in a synthetic way, the influence of the main processes controlling the lake thermal dynamics, and to recognize the atmospheric temperature as the main factor driving the evolution of the system. In fact, under certain hypotheses the air temperature variation implicitly contains proper information about the other major processes involved, and hence in our approach is considered as the only input variable of the model. In particular, the model is suitable to be applied over long timescales (from monthly to interannual, and can be easily used to predict the response of a lake to climate change, since projected air temperatures are usually available by large-scale global circulation models. In this paper, the model is applied to Lake Superior (USA–Canada considering a 27 yr record of measurements, among which 18 yr are used for calibration and the remaining 9 yr for model validation. The calibration of the model is obtained by using the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE methodology, which also allows for a sensitivity analysis of the parameters. The results show remarkable agreement with

  17. Simulations of the influence of lake area on local temperature with the COSMO NWP model

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Bartůňková, Kristýna; Sokol, Zbyněk; Pop, Lukáš

    147-148, 1-15 Oct (2014), s. 51-67 ISSN 0169-8095 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA13-34856S; GA TA ČR TA01020592 Institutional support: RVO:68378289 Keywords : ALAKE * COSMO NWP model * modeling * microclimate * lake Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 2.844, year: 2014 http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169809514002038

  18. Modeling the acid-base chemistry of organic solutes in Adirondack, New York, lakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Driscoll, Charles T.; Lehtinen, Michael D.; Sullivan, Timothy J.

    1994-02-01

    Data from the large and diverse Adirondack Lake Survey were used to calibrate four simple organic acid analog models in an effort to quantify the influence of naturally occurring organic acids on lake water pH and acid-neutralizing capacity (ANC). The organic acid analog models were calibrated to observations of pH, dissolved organic carbon (DOC), and organic anion (An-) concentrations from a reduced data set representing 1128 individual lake samples, expressed as 41 observations of mean pH, in intervals of 0.1 pH units from pH 3.9 to 7.0. Of the four organic analog approaches examined, including the Oliver et al. (1983) model, as well as monoprotic, diprotic, and triprotic representations, the triprotic analog model yielded the best fit (r2 = 0.92) to the observed data. Moreover, the triprotic model was qualitatively consistent with observed patterns of change in organic solute charge density as a function of pH. A low calibrated value for the first H+ dissociation constant (pKal = 2.62) and the observation that organic anion concentrations were significant even at very low pH (acidic functional groups. Inclusion of organic acidity in model calculations resulted in good agreement between measured and predicted values of lake water pH and ANC. Assessments to project the response of surface waters to future changes in atmospheric deposition, through the use of acidification models, will need to include representations of organic acids in model structure to make accurate predictions of pH and ANC.

  19. Examining Ecological and Ecosystem Level Impacts of Aquatic Invasive Species in Lake Michigan Using An Ecosystem Productivity Model, LM-Eco

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ecological and ecosystem-level impacts of aquatic invasive species in Lake Michigan were examined using the Lake Michigan Ecosystem Model (LM-Eco). The LM-Eco model includes a detailed description of trophic levels and their interactions within the lower food web of Lake Michiga...

  20. Cholera in the Lake Kivu region (DRC): Integrating remote sensing and spatially explicit epidemiological modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Finger, Flavio; Knox, Allyn; Bertuzzo, Enrico; Mari, Lorenzo; Bompangue, Didier; Gatto, Marino; Rodriguez-Iturbe, Ignacio; Rinaldo, Andrea

    2014-07-01

    Mathematical models of cholera dynamics can not only help in identifying environmental drivers and processes that influence disease transmission, but may also represent valuable tools for the prediction of the epidemiological patterns in time and space as well as for the allocation of health care resources. Cholera outbreaks have been reported in the Democratic Republic of the Congo since the 1970s. They have been ravaging the shore of Lake Kivu in the east of the country repeatedly during the last decades. Here we employ a spatially explicit, inhomogeneous Markov chain model to describe cholera incidence in eight health zones on the shore of the lake. Remotely sensed data sets of chlorophyll a concentration in the lake, precipitation and indices of global climate anomalies are used as environmental drivers in addition to baseline seasonality. The effect of human mobility is also modelled mechanistically. We test several models on a multiyear data set of reported cholera cases. The best fourteen models, accounting for different environmental drivers, and selected using the Akaike information criterion, are formally compared via proper cross validation. Among these, the one accounting for seasonality, El Niño Southern Oscillation, precipitation and human mobility outperforms the others in cross validation. Some drivers (such as human mobility and rainfall) are retained only by a few models, possibly indicating that the mechanisms through which they influence cholera dynamics in the area will have to be investigated further.

  1. Modeling Gas Slug Break-up in the Lava Lake at Mt. Erebus, Antarctica

    Science.gov (United States)

    Velazquez, L. C.; Qin, Z.; Suckale, J.; Soldati, A.; Rust, A.; Cashman, K. V.

    2017-12-01

    Lava lakes are perhaps the most direct look scientists can take inside a volcano. They have thus become a fundamental component in our understanding of the dynamics of magmatic systems. Mount Erebus, Ross Island, Antarctica contains one of the most persistent and long-lived lava lakes on Earth, creating a unique and complex area of study. Its persistent magma degassing, convective overturns, and Strombolian eruptions have been studied through extensive field campaigns and analog as well as computational models. These provide diverse insights into the plumbing system not only at Mt. Erebus, but at other volcanoes as well. Eruptions at Erebus are episodic. One of the leading hypotheses to explain this episodicity is the rise and burst of large conduit-filling bubbles, known as gas slugs, at the lava lake surface. These slugs are thought to form deep in the plumbing system, rise through the conduit, and exit through the lava lake. The goal of this study is to investigate the stability of the hypothesized slugs as they transition from the conduit into the lava lake. Analogue laboratory results suggest that the flaring geometry at the transition point may trigger slug breakup and formation of separate daughter bubbles that then burst through the surface separately. We test this hypothesis through numerical simulations. Our model solves the two-fluid Navier-Stokes equations by calculating the conservation of mass and momentum in the gas and liquid. The laboratory experiments use a Hele-Shaw cell, in which the flaring geometry of the lava lake walls can be adjusted. A gas slug of variable volume is then injected into a liquid at different viscosities. We first validate our numerical simulations against these laboratory experiments and then proceed to investigate the same dynamics at the volcanic scale. At the natural scale, we investigate the same system parameters as at the lab scale. First results indicate that simulations reproduce experiments well. The results

  2. Modeling aluminum-silicon chemistries and application to Australian acidic playa lakes as analogues for Mars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marion, G. M.; Crowley, J. K.; Thomson, B. J.; Kargel, J. S.; Bridges, N. T.; Hook, S. J.; Baldridge, A.; Brown, A. J.; Ribeiro da Luz, B.; de Souza Filho, C. R.

    2009-06-01

    Recent Mars missions have stimulated considerable thinking about the surficial geochemical evolution of Mars. Among the major relevant findings are the presence in Meridiani Planum sediments of the mineral jarosite (a ferric sulfate salt) and related minerals that require formation from an acid-salt brine and oxidizing environment. Similar mineralogies have been observed in acidic saline lake sediments in Western Australia (WA), and these lakes have been proposed as analogues for acidic sedimentary environments on Mars. The prior version of the equilibrium chemical thermodynamic FREZCHEM model lacked Al and Si chemistries that are needed to appropriately model acidic aqueous geochemistries on Earth and Mars. The objectives of this work were to (1) add Al and Si chemistries to the FREZCHEM model, (2) extend these chemistries to low temperatures (enthalpy data. New aluminum and silicon parameterizations added 12 new aluminum/silicon minerals to this Na-K-Mg-Ca-Fe(II)-Fe(III)-Al-H-Cl-Br-SO 4-NO 3-OH-HCO 3-CO 3-CO 2-O 2-CH 4-Si-H 2O system that now contain 95 solid phases. There were similarities, differences, and uncertainties between Australian acidic, saline playa lakes and waters that likely led to the Burns formation salt accumulations on Mars. Both systems are similar in that they are dominated by (1) acidic, saline ground waters and sediments, (2) Ca and/or Mg sulfates, and (3) iron precipitates such as jarosite and hematite. Differences include: (1) the dominance of NaCl in many WA lakes, versus the dominance of Fe-Mg-Ca-SO 4 in Meridiani Planum, (2) excessively low K + concentrations in Meridiani Planum due to jarosite precipitation, (3) higher acid production in the presence of high iron concentrations in Meridiani Planum, and probably lower rates of acid neutralization and hence, higher acidities on Mars owing to colder temperatures, and (4) lateral salt patterns in WA lakes. The WA playa lakes display significant lateral variations in mineralogy and water

  3. Antarctic stratospheric ozone and seasonal predictability over southern Africa

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Engelbrecht, FA

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The impact of time-varying Antarctic stratospheric ozone on southern African summer climate variability is explored through atmospheric global circulation model (AGCM) sensitivity experiments. A control experiment following the design...

  4. Comparing past accumulation rate reconstructions in East Antarctic ice cores using 10Be, water isotopes and CMIP5-PMIP3 models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Cauquoin

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Ice cores are exceptional archives which allow us to reconstruct a wealth of climatic parameters as well as past atmospheric composition over the last 800 kyr in Antarctica. Inferring the variations in past accumulation rate in polar regions is essential both for documenting past climate and for ice core chronology. On the East Antarctic Plateau, the accumulation rate is so small that annual layers cannot be identified and accumulation rate is mainly deduced from the water isotopic composition assuming constant temporal relationships between temperature, water isotopic composition and accumulation rate. Such an assumption leads to large uncertainties on the reconstructed past accumulation rate. Here, we use high-resolution beryllium-10 (10Be as an alternative tool for inferring past accumulation rate for the EPICA Dome C ice core, in East Antarctica. We present a high-resolution 10Be record covering a full climatic cycle over the period 269 to 355 ka from Marine Isotope Stage (MIS 9 to 10, including a period warmer than pre-industrial (MIS 9.3 optimum. After correcting 10Be for the estimated effect of the palaeomagnetic field, we deduce that the 10Be reconstruction is in reasonably good agreement with EDC3 values for the full cycle except for the period warmer than present. For the latter, the accumulation is up to 13% larger (4.46 cm ie yr−1 instead of 3.95. This result is in agreement with the studies suggesting an underestimation of the deuterium-based accumulation for the optimum of the Holocene (Parrenin et al. 2007a. Using the relationship between accumulation rate and surface temperature from the saturation vapour relationship, the 10Be-based accumulation rate reconstruction suggests that the temperature increase between the MIS 9.3 optimum and present day may be 2.4 K warmer than estimated by the water isotopes reconstruction. We compare these reconstructions to the available model results from CMIP5-PMIP3 for a glacial and an

  5. Lake Ice Cover of Shallow Lakes and Climate Interactions in Arctic Regions (1950-2011): SAR Data Analysis and Numerical Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Surdu, C.; Duguay, C.; Brown, L.; Fernàndez-Prieto, D.; Samuelsson, P.

    2012-12-01

    Lake ice cover is highly correlated with climatic conditions and has, therefore, been demonstrated to be an essential indicator of climate variability and change. Recent studies have shown that the duration of the lake ice cover has decreased, mainly as a consequence of earlier thaw dates in many parts of the Northern Hemisphere over the last 50 years, mainly as a feedback to increased winter and spring air temperature. In response to projected air temperature and winter precipitation changes by climate models until the end of the 21st century, the timing, duration, and thickness of ice cover on Arctic lakes are expected to be impacted. This, in turn, will likely alter the energy, water, and bio-geochemical cycling in various regions of the Arctic. In the case of shallow tundra lakes, many of which are less than 3-m deep, warmer climate conditions could result in a smaller fraction of lakes that fully freeze to the bottom at the time of maximum winter ice thickness since thinner ice covers are predicted to develop. Shallow thermokarst lakes of the coastal plain of northern Alaska, and of other similar Arctic regions, have likely been experiencing changes in seasonal ice phenology and thickness over the last few decades but these have not yet been comprehensively documented. Analysis of a 20-year time series of ERS-1/2 synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data and numerical lake ice modeling were employed to determine the response of ice cover (thickness, freezing to bed, and phenology) on shallow lakes of the North Slope of Alaska (NSA) to climate conditions over the last three decades. New downscaled data specific to the Arctic domain (at a resolution of 0.44 degrees using ERA Interim Reanalysis as boundary condition) produced by the Rossby Centre Regional Atmospheric Climate Model (RCA4) was used to drive the Canadian Lake Ice Model (CLIMo) for the period 1950-2011. In order to assess and integrate the SAR-derived observed changes into a longer historical context, and

  6. Acidification in Three Lake District Tarns: Historical Iong term trends and modelled future behaviour under changing sulphate and nitrate deposition

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. G. Whitchead

    1997-01-01

    Full Text Available Three upland Lake District Tarns, Scoat, Greendale and Burnmoor, have been evaluated using MAGIC (Model of Acidification of Groundwater In Catchments to reconstruct past, present and future chemical behaviour. The modelled historical changes in acidity are compared with palaeoecological estimation of pH to demonstrate model validity. Chemistry as simulated for all anions and cations and two of the three lakes are shown to have undergone significant acidification. The effects of changing atmospheric pollution levels on lake chemistry is evaluated and 80-90% sulphur reduction levels are required to achieve zero alkalinity. The impacts of increased nitrogen deposition are assessed and are shown to further delay reversibility.

  7. Reshaping the Antarctic Circumpolar Current via Antarctic Bottom Water Export

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stewart, A.; Hogg, A.

    2016-02-01

    Westerly wind forcing of Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) is balanced at large-scale topographic obstructions by form drag; the formation of standing meanders produces a net westward pressure gradient associated with the geostrophically balanced meridional flow. These topographic obstructions also support the northward geostrophic flow of Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW), which piles up dense water on the eastern side of the topography and thereby acts to reduce the form drag. We therefore hypothesize that variations in the density of AABW and its export rate must be accommodated by reshaping the ACC's standing meanders in order to preserve the zonal force balance. We test this hypothesis using an idealized, eddy-resolving sector model of the ACC. We find that response of the ACC to switching off AABW production depends on whether the topography is high enough to block barotropic potential vorticity (PV) contours. If re-entrant PV contours exist then the ACC responds similarly to switching off AABW production or halving the westerly wind strength: for example the ACC transport drops by 10-20% and the surface speed in the meander decreases by around 25%. If PV contours are blocked then the ACC transport becomes insensitive to the westerlies, but switching off AABW production still leads to a reduced ACC transport through a wider, slower meander. These results suggest that the warming and freshening of AABW observed in recent decades may have a detectable impact on the surface circulation of the ACC.

  8. Simulation of surface energy fluxes and stratification of a small boreal lake by a set of one-dimensional models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Victor Stepanenko

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Five one-dimensional (1D lake models were run for the open water season in 2006 for Lake Valkea-Kotinen (Finland using on-lake measured meteorological forcing. The model results were validated using measurements of water temperature and of eddy covariance (EC fluxes. The surface temperature is satisfactorily simulated by all models showing slight overestimation (by 0.1–1.1°C. Both sensible and latent heat fluxes are positively biased in respect to EC data, consistent with earlier studies. However, correlation coefficients between EC-fluxes and those simulated are relatively high ranging from 0.55 to 0.74. The skill to simulate vertical temperature profiles by different models is assessed as well. It is found that the lake models underestimate the EC-derived surface drag coefficient, however providing realistic temperature profiles. It is argued that the real momentum flux from the atmosphere is larger than simulated, however it is split up between the wave development and the acceleration of lake currents. Adopting the simple parameterisation for momentum flux partitioning in one of the models showed that this mechanism can be significant. Finally, the effect of including the lake bathymetry data in k-ɛ models was the drastic overheating of water below the thermocline. This is likely to be caused by omitting the heat flux at the lake margins. Thus, the parameterisation of heat flux at the lake's margins should be included in the models; otherwise it is recommended to neglect bathymetry effects for such small water bodies as the Lake Valkea-Kotinen.

  9. Simulation of Tritium Transport and Groundwater Age in a Variably Saturated 3D Model, Lake Rotorua Catchment, New Zealand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daughney, C.; Toews, M. W.; Morgenstern, U.; Cornaton, F. J.; Jackson, B. M.

    2013-12-01

    Lake Rotorua is a focus of culture and tourism in New Zealand. The lake's water quality has declined since the 1970s, partly due to nutrient inputs that reach the lake via the groundwater system. Improved land use management within the catchment requires prediction of the spatial variations of groundwater transit time from land surface to the lake, and from this the prediction of current and future nutrient inflows to the lake. This study combines the two main methods currently available for determination of water age: numerical groundwater models and hydrological tracers. A steady-state 3D finite element model was constructed to simulate groundwater flow and transport of tritium and age at the catchment scale (555 km2). The model materials were defined using a 3D geologic model and included ignimbrites, rhyolites, alluvial and lake bottom sediments. The steady-state saturated groundwater flow model was calibrated using observed groundwater levels in boreholes (111 locations) and stream flow measurements from groundwater-fed streams and springs (61 locations). Hydraulic conductivities and Cauchy boundary conditions associated with the streams, springs and lake were parameterized. The transport parameters for the model were calibrated using 191 tritium samples from 105 locations (springs, streams and boreholes), with most locations having two sample dates. The transport model used steady-state flow, but simulated the transient transport and decay of tritium from rainfall recharge between 1945 and 2012. An additional 1D unsaturated sub-model was added to account for tritium decay from the ground surface to the water table. The sub-model is linked on top of the 3D model, and uses the water table depths and material properties from the 3D model. The adjustable calibration parameters for the transport model were porosity and van Genuchten parameters related to the unsaturated sub-models. Calibration of the flow model was achieved using a combination of automated least

  10. A modified QWASI model for fate and transport modeling of mercury between the water-ice-sediment in Lake Ulansuhai.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yu; Li, Changyou; Anderson, Bruce; Zhang, Sheng; Shi, Xiaohong; Zhao, Shengnan

    2017-06-01

    Mercury contamination from industrial and agricultural drainage into lakes and rivers is a growing concern in Northern China. Lake Ulansuhai, located in Hetao irrigation district in Inner Mongolia, is the only sink for the all industrial and agricultural drainage and sole outlet for this district to the Yellow River, which is one of the main source of drinking water for the numerous cities and towns downstream. Because Ulansuahi is ice-covered during winter, the QWASI model was modified by adding an ice equation to get a more accurate understanding of the fate and transport of mercury within the lake. Both laboratory and field tests were carried out during the ice growth period. The aquivalence and mass balance approaches were used to develop the modified QWASI + ice model. The margins of error between the modelled and the measured average concentrations of Hg in ice, water, and sediment were 30%, 26.2%, and 19.8% respectively. These results suggest that the new QWASI + ice model could be used to more accurately represent the fate and transport of mercury in the seasonally ice-covered lakes, during the ice growth period. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Water regime of Playa Lakes from southern Spain: conditioning factors and hydrological modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moral, Francisco; Rodriguez-Rodriguez, Miguel; Beltrán, Manuel; Benavente, José; Cifuentes, Victor Juan

    2013-07-01

    Andalusia's lowland countryside has a network of small geographically isolated playa lakes scattered across an area of 9000 km2 whose watersheds are mostly occupied by clayey rocks. The hydrological model proposed by the authors seeks to find equilibrium among usefulness, simplicity, and applicability to isolated playas in a semiarid context elsewhere. Based in such model, the authors have used monthly climatic data, water stage measurements, and the basin morphometry of a particular case (Los Jarales playa lake) to calibrate the soil water budget in the catchment and the water inputs from the watershed (runoff plus groundwater flow) at different scales, from monthly to daily. After the hydrologic model was calibrated, the authors implemented simulations with the goal of reproducing the past hydrological dynamics and forecasting water regime changes that would be caused by a modification of the wetland morphometry.

  12. Using a coupled groundwater/surface-water model to predict climate-change impacts to lakes in the Trout Lake Watershed, northern Wisconsin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hunt, Randall; Walker, John F.; Markstrom, Steven L.; Hay, Lauren E.; Doherty, John; Webb, Richard M.T.; Semmens, Darius J.

    2009-01-01

    A major focus of the U.S. Geological Survey’s Trout Lake Water, Energy, and Biogeochemical Budgets (WEBB) project is the development of a watershed model to allow predictions of hydrologic response to future conditions including land-use and climate change. The coupled groundwater/surface-water model GSFLOW was chosen for this purpose because it could easily incorporate an existing groundwater flow model and it provides for simulation of surface-water processes.

  13. Modelling the Loktak Lake Basin to Assess Human Impact on Water Resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eliza, K.

    2015-12-01

    Loktak Lake is an internationally important, Ramsar designated, fresh water wetland system in the state of Manipur, India. The lake was also listed under Montreux Record on account of the ecological modifications that the lake system has witnessed over time. A characteristic feature of this lake is the extensive occurrence of coalesced, naturally or otherwise, vegetative masses floating over it. A contiguous 40 km2 area of Phumdis, as these vegetative masses are locally referred to, also constitutes the only natural home of the endemic and endangered species of Manipur's brow-antlered deer popularly known as Sangai. Appropriately notified as Keibul Lamjao National Park by Government of India, this natural feature is known to be the world's largest floating park. Water quality and sediment deposition on account of soil erosion in its catchments are some of the emerging concerns along with a reported enhanced frequency and duration of flooding of the shore areas, reduced fish catch within a visibly deteriorated overall natural ecosystem. Disturbances of watershed processes, command area management practices, ineffective as indeed largely absent, waste management practices and management interventions linked to the Loktak Hydroelectric Project are often cited as the principal triggers that are seen to be responsible for the damage. An effective management protocol for the Lake requires a rigorous understanding of its hydrobiology and eco-hydrodynamics. The present study is carried out to establish such a characterization of the various rivers systems draining directly into the Lake using MIKE SHE, MIKE 11 HD and MIKE 11 ECO Lab modelling platforms. Water quality modelling was limited to dissolved oxygen (DO), biological oxygen demand (BOD) and water temperature. Model calibration was done using the available measured water quality data. The derived results were then investigated for causal correlation with anthropogenic influences to assess human impact on water

  14. A coupled regolith-lake development model applied to the Forsmark site

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brydsten, Lars; Stroemgren, Maarten (Umeaa Univ., Umeaa (Sweden))

    2010-11-15

    The Quaternary geology at the Forsmark site has been characterized using both a map of Quaternary deposits and a regolith depth model (RDM) that show the stratigraphy and thickness of different deposits. Regolith refers to all the unconsolidated deposits overlying the bedrock. The surface geology and regolith depth are important parameters for hydrogeological and geochemical modelling and for the overall understanding of the area. The safety assessment analysis should focus on processes involved during a period of 120,000 years, which includes a full glacial cycle; however, the investigations within the site description model do not cover the temporal change of the regolith, a limitation that does not fulfil the requirements for the safety assessment. To this end, this study constructs a model that can predict the surface geology, stratigraphy, and thickness of different strata at any time during a glacial cycle and applies this model to the Forsmark site. The Weichselian ice sheet covered the study area until around 9500 BC. The deglaciation revealed a marine landscape with bedrock, till and glacial clay. For the safety assessment, the most important unconsolidated strata are clay or silt: these small grains can bind nuclear elements more easily than coarser sediment particles. Thick layers of clay can be found where post-glacial clay settled on top of glacial clay, especially where the middle-aged erosion of postglacial clay is missing and where there is an uninterrupted sequence of accumulation of finegrained particles. Such areas could be found in deep marine basins that later become lakes when raised into a supra-marine position. The coupled regolith-lake development model (RLDM) predicts the course of events described above during an interglacial, especially the dynamics of the clay and silt particles. The RLDM is divided into two modules: a marine module that predicts the sediment dynamics caused by wind waves and a lake module that predicts the lake infill

  15. Modeling of Potential Lahars Motivated by Landslides in Crater Lake of Baitoushan Volcano

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Y.; Hong, H.; Wei, H.; Zheng, X.; Liu, P.; Tao, W.

    2004-12-01

    Collapse and landslides, occurred in many volcanic craters, could result in more dangerous disasters if they encounter with lake water. Baitoushan volcano, an intraplate stratovolcano in the Changbaishan volcanic field on the border between China and North Korea, contains a crater lake approximately 4.45km in length along its long axis, about 200m in average depth. The lake is surrounded by steep rock walls that rise up to 300 ˜400m above its surface. Several horseshoe-shaped scars in the walls indicate that some large-scale landslides had happened since the last enormous explosive eruption one thousand years ago. At present the walls still have the possibilities of rockfalls and landslides. If they entered the lake with high speed, could produce life-threatening waves. The waves would transmit through the lake surface and release flood instantly to the downstream from the outlet in the north of the crater, which transform into lahars mixing with the loose pyroclastic deposits along the hillslope, and destroy almost everything where they passed by. Our work aims to model the potential lahars motivated by the landslides of Baitoushan volcano and to predict inundation areas and travel time of flows. For this purpose the heights of waves triggered by those historic landslides have been estimated based on declivities¡_ volumes and landslide speeds. HEC-RAS, a program of surface water model developed by U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, is utilized to simulate the potential lahars using the range of wave height as the boundary condition. The research results indicate that the lahars, on the one hand, might spend about eighty minutes reaching the nearest town at the foot of the volcano along Erdaobaihe River valley, and on the other hand possibly flood into the nearby rivers if the flux is remarkably large.

  16. Assessing Vulnerability of Lake Erie Landscapes to Soil Erosion: Modelled and Measured Approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joosse, P.; Laamrani, A.; Feisthauer, N.; Li, S.

    2017-12-01

    Loss of soil from agricultural landscapes to Lake Erie via water erosion is a key transport mechanism for phosphorus bound to soil particles. Agriculture is the dominant land use in the Canadian side of the Lake Erie basin with approximately 75% of the 2.3 million hectares under crop or livestock production. The variable geography and diversity of agricultural production systems and management practices makes estimating risk of soil erosion from agricultural landscapes in the Canadian Lake Erie basin challenging. Risk of soil erosion depends on a combination of factors including the extent to which soil remains bare, which differs with crop type and management. Two different approaches of estimating the vulnerability of landscapes to soil erosion will be compared among Soil Landscapes of Canada in the Lake Erie basin: a modelling approach incorporating farm census and soil survey data, represented by the 2011 Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada Agri-Environmental Indicator for Soil Erosion Risk; and, a measured approach using remotely sensed data that quantifies the magnitude of bare and covered soil across the basin. Results from both approaches will be compared by scaling the national level (1:1 million) Soil Erosion Risk Indicator and the remotely sensed data (30x30 m resolution) to the quaternary watershed level.

  17. Efficient debridement of necrotic wounds using proteolytic enzymes derived from Antarctic krill: a double-blind, placebo-controlled study in a standardized animal wound model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mekkes, J. R.; Le Poole, I. C.; Das, P. K.; Bos, J. D.; Westerhof, W.

    1998-01-01

    Wound healing can be accelerated by removing necrotic tissue. Various methods of wound debridement have been developed, including enzymatic debridement. Recently potent proteolytic enzymes were isolated from the intestine of Euphausia superba (Antarctic krill) that might be useful for degrading

  18. Dramatic water-level fluctuations in lakes under intense human impact: modelling the effect of vegetation, climate and hydrogeology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vainu, M.

    2012-04-01

    Lakes form a highly important ecosystem in the glacial terrain of northern Europe and America, but their hydrology remains understudied. When the water-level of a lake drops significantly and rises again in a time span of half a century and the widespread explanation of the fluctuations seems insufficient, then it raises a question: how do different anthropogenic and natural processes actually affect the formation of a lakes' water body. The abovementioned scenario applies to three small closed-basin Estonian lakes (L. Ahnejärv, L. Kuradijärv and L. Martiska) analysed in the current study. These lakes suffered a major water-level drop (up to 3.8 m) between 1946 and 1987 and a major rise between 1987 and 2010, from 1 m (L. Ahnejärv) to 2.5 m (L. Kuradijärv). Decreasing and increasing groundwater abstraction near the lakes has been widely considered to be the only reason for the fluctuations. It is true that the most severe drop in the lake levels did occur after 1972 when groundwater abstraction for drinking water started in the vicinity of the lakes. However, the lake levels started to fall before the groundwater abstraction began and for the time being the lake levels have risen to a higher level than in the 1970s when the quantity of annually abstracted groundwater was similar to nowadays. Therefore the processes affecting the formation of the lakes' water body prove to be more complex than purely the hydrogeological change caused by groundwater abstraction. A new deterministic water balance model (where the evaporation from the lake surface was calculated by Penman equation and the catchment runoff by Thornthwaite-Mather soil-moisture model), compiled for the study, coupled with LiDAR-based GIS-modelling of the catchments was used to identify the different factors influencing the lakes' water level. The modelling results reveal that the moderate drop in lake water levels before the beginning of groundwater abstraction was probably caused by the growth of a

  19. A dynamic-bioenergetics model to assess depth selection and reproductive growth by lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plumb, John M; Blanchfield, Paul J; Abrahams, Mark V

    2014-06-01

    We coupled dynamic optimization and bioenergetics models to assess the assumption that lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) depth distribution is structured by temperature, food availability, and predation risk to maximize reproductive mass by autumn spawning. Because the model uses empirical daily thermal-depth profiles recorded in a small boreal shield lake (lake 373 at the Experimental Lakes Area, northwestern Ontario) during 2 years of contrasting thermal stratification patterns, we also assessed how climate-mediated changes in lakes may affect the vertical distribution, growth, and fitness of lake trout, a cold-water top predator. The depths of acoustic-tagged lake trout were recorded concurrently with thermal-depth profiles and were compared to model output, enabling an assessment of model performance in relation to the observed fish behavior and contrasting thermal conditions. The depths and temperatures occupied by simulated fish most closely resembled those of the tagged fish when risk of predation was included in the model, indicating the model may incorporate the most important underlying mechanisms that determine lake trout depth. Annual differences suggest less use of shallow (warm), productive habitats, resulting in markedly less reproductive mass, during the year with the warm stratification pattern. Mass for reproduction may be lower in warmer conditions because of reduced reproductive investment, yet survival may be inadvertently higher because risky surface waters may be avoided more often in warmer, shallower, and metabolically costly conditions. At a minimum our study suggests that lake trout reproductive mass and fitness may be expected to change under the anticipated longer and warmer stratification patterns.

  20. Regional genetic diversity patterns in Antarctic hairgrass (Deschampsia antartica Desv.)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van de Wouw, M.J.; Van Dijk, P.J.; Huiskes, A.H.L.

    2008-01-01

    Aim To determine patterns in diversity of a major Antarctic plant species, including relationships of Antarctic populations with those outside the Antarctic zone. Location Antarctic Peninsula, Maritime Antarctica, sub-Antarctic islands, Falkland Islands and South America. Methods Amplified fragment

  1. A modeling approach to identify the effective forcing exerted by wind on a prealpine lake surrounded by a complex topography

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valerio, G.; Cantelli, A.; Monti, P.; Leuzzi, G.

    2017-05-01

    The representation of spatial wind distribution is recognized as a serious difficulty when modeling the hydrodynamics of lakes surrounded by a complex topography. To address this issue, we propose to force a 3-D lake model with the wind field simulated by a high-resolution atmospheric model, considering as a case study a 61 km2 prealpine lake surrounded by mountain ranges that reach 1800 m above the lake's surface, where a comprehensive data set was available in the stratified season. The improved distributed description of the wind stress over the lake surface led to a significant enhancement in the representation of the main basin-scale internal wave motions, and hence provided a reference solution to test the use of simplified approaches. Moreover, the analysis of the power exerted by the computed wind field enabled us to identify measuring stations that provide suitable wind data to be applied uniformly on the lake surface in long-term simulations. Accordingly, the proposed methodology can contribute to reducing the uncertainties associated with the definition of wind forcing for modeling purposes and can provide a rational criterion for installing representative measurement locations in prealpine lakes.

  2. Predictive mechanistic bioenergetics to model habitat suitability of shellfish culture in coastal lakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rinaldi, A.; Montalto, V.; Manganaro, A.; Mazzola, A.; Mirto, S.; Sanfilippo, M.; Sarà, G.

    2014-05-01

    Quantitative tools based on mechanistic modelling of functional traits able to enhance the sustainability of aquaculture and most other human activities (i.e. reducing the likelihood of detrimental impacts optimising productions), are especially important factors in the decision to site aquaculture facilities in coastal lakes, ponds and lagoons and, in the case of detrimental impact, to adopt mitigation measures. We tested the ability of mechanistic functional trait based models to predict life history traits of cultivable shellfish in shallow coastal lakes. Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) models were run to generate spatially explicit predictions of Mytilus galloprovincialis life history (LH) traits (e.g. body size and fecundity). Using fortnightly data of food supply and hourly data of body temperatures, and exploiting the power of mechanistic rules, we estimated the amount of faeces ejected by a fixed quantity of organisms cultivated in two shallow Southern Mediterranean (Sicily) lakes. These differed in terms of temperature and food density, implying large differences in life history traits of mussels in the two study areas. This information could help facilitate the selection of sites where environmental conditions are more suitable for aquaculture and contextually compatible with sustainability. The validation exercise obtained by comparing the predicted and observed data was nearly consistent. Therefore, a mechanistic functional traits-based model seems able to capture the link between habitat characteristics and functional traits of organisms, delineating the fundamental portion of an ecological niche, the possibility of predicting LH traits and potential ecological applications in the management of natural coastal resources.

  3. Phosphorus Export Model Development in a Terminal Lake Basin using Concentration-Streamflow Relationship

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeannotte, T.; Mahmood, T. H.; Matheney, R.; Hou, X.

    2017-12-01

    Nutrient export to streams and lakes by anthropogenic activities can lead to eutrophication and degradation of surface water quality. In Devils Lake, ND, the only terminal lake in the Northern Great Plains, the algae boom is of great concern due to the recent increase in streamflow and consequent rise in phosphorus (P) export from prairie agricultural fields. However, to date, very few studies explored the concentration (c) -streamflow (q) relationship in the headwater catchments of the Devils Lake basin. A robust watershed-scale quantitative framework would aid understanding of the c-q relationship, simulating P concentration and load. In this study, we utilize c-q relationships to develop a simple model to estimate phosphorus concentration and export from two headwater catchments of different size (Mauvais Coulee: 1032 km2 and Trib 3: 160 km2) draining to Devils Lake. Our goal is to link the phosphorus export model with a physically based hydrologic model to identify major drivers of phosphorus export. USGS provided the streamflow measurements, and we collected water samples (filtered and unfiltered) three times daily during the spring snowmelt season (March 31, 2017- April 12, 2017) at the outlets of both headwater catchments. Our results indicate that most P is dissolved and very little is particulate, suggesting little export of fine-grained sediment from agricultural fields. Our preliminary analyses in the Mauvais Coulee catchment show a chemostatic c-q relationship in the rising limb of the hydrograph, while the recession limb shows a linear and positive c-q relationship. The poor correlation in the rising limb of the hydrograph suggests intense flushing of P by spring snowmelt runoff. Flushing then continues in the recession limb of the hydrograph, but at a more constant rate. The estimated total P load for the Mauvais Coulee basin is 193 kg/km2, consistent with other catchments of similar size across the Red River of the North basin to the east. We expect

  4. Validating an erosion model using the environmental radionuclide 210Pb in the Lake Wollumboola catchment, southwestern NSW, Australia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Simms, A.; Woodroffe, C.; Jones, B.G.; Heijnis, H.; Harrison, J.; Brooke, B.

    2005-01-01

    Soil erosion is a key limitation to achieving sustainable land use and effective soil management, and is the major source of sediment to Australian water bodies resulting in degradation of water quality. Sediment delivery is an important constraint on the sustainable management of coastal lakes along the south coast of New South Wales. Assessment and mitigation of sediment input is a major issue for the sustainable management of water bodies such as coastal lakes and soil erosion caused by rainfall and runoff is of particular concern. In this paper we examine the application of 210 Pb analyses of sediment samples to test the extent to which a modified version of the Universal Soil Loss Equation for Australian conditions (OxMUSCLE) is valid. The model is applied to Lake Wollumboola to estimate sediment yield from the catchment into its terminal lake, which is a saline coastal lake 172 km south of Sydney. 14 refs., 1 fig., 1 tab

  5. Verification of a model for predicting the effect of inconstant temperature on embryonic development of lake whitefish (Coregonus clupeaformis)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berlin, William H.; Brooke, L.T.; Stone, Linda J.

    1977-01-01

    Eggs stripped from lake whitefish (Coregonus clupeaformis) spawning in Lake Michigan were incubated in the laboratory at temperatures similar to those on whitefish spawning grounds in Lake Michigan during December-April. Observed times from fertilization to attainment of each of 21 developmental stages were used to test a model that predicts the rate of development at daily fluctuating temperatures; the model relates rate of development for any given stage j, expressed as the reciprocal of time (Rj), to temperature (T). The generalized equation for a developmental stage is Rj = abTcT??.

  6. The Warming of Large Lakes on the Tibetan Plateau: Evidence From a Lake Model Simulation of Nam Co, China, During 1979-2012

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Lei; Wang, Junbo; Zhu, Liping; Ju, Jianting; Daut, Gerhard

    2017-12-01

    Lakes are considered as indicators of climate change on the Tibetan Plateau (TP). In the present study, we use the General Lake Model to simulate water temperature changes in Nam Co, the second largest lake on the central TP, for the period 1979-2012. The calibration and validation results demonstrate that this model is well suited for thermal simulation of Nam Co. The simulation results indicate that Nam Co has responded to the recent warming climate. The average summer surface water temperature fluctuated yearly, but its trend is positive at a rate of 0.52 ± 0.25°C per decade. At the same time, the onset of summer stratification advanced by 4.20 ± 2.02 d per decade, and the duration increased at a rate of 6.00 ± 3.54 d per decade. To explore the roles of air temperature and longwave radiation in lake warming, three sensitivity experiments are conducted by removing long-term trends from time series of air temperature and longwave radiation in the forcing data. These experiments prove that both increased air temperature and downward longwave radiation are two driving factors responsible for the warming of Nam Co.

  7. Antarctic Tephra Database (AntT)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kurbatov, A.; Dunbar, N. W.; Iverson, N. A.; Gerbi, C. C.; Yates, M. G.; Kalteyer, D.; McIntosh, W. C.

    2014-12-01

    Modern paleoclimate research is heavily dependent on establishing accurate timing related to rapid shifts in Earth's climate system. The ability to correlate these events at local, and ideally at the intercontinental scales, allows assessment, for example, of phasing or changes in atmospheric circulation. Tephra-producing volcanic eruptions are geologically instantaneous events that are largely independent of climate. We have developed a tephrochronological framework for paleoclimate research in Antarctic in a user friendly, freely accessible online Antarctic tephra (AntT) database (http://cci.um.maine.edu/AntT/). Information about volcanic events, including physical and geochemical characteristics of volcanic products collected from multiple data sources, are integrated into the AntT database.The AntT project establishes a new centralized data repository for Antarctic tephrochronology, which is needed for precise correlation of records between Antarctic ice cores (e.g. WAIS Divide, RICE, Talos Dome, ITASE) and global paleoclimate archives. The AntT will help climatologists, paleoclimatologists, atmospheric chemists, geochemists, climate modelers synchronize paleoclimate archives using volcanic products that establishing timing of climate events in different geographic areas, climate-forcing mechanisms, natural threshold levels in the climate system. All these disciplines will benefit from accurate reconstructions of the temporal and spatial distribution of past rapid climate change events in continental, atmospheric, marine and polar realms. Research is funded by NSF grants: ANT-1142007 and 1142069.

  8. Management Model of Lakes as a tool for planning the remediation of Suat Uğurlu Lake

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bilge Aydın Er

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Ecological processes that occur in a lake depend on the physico-chemical (abiotic and biotic factors of the system and the interrelations between them. It can be concluded that the current nutrient loadings from both point and non-point sources are cause to increase eutrophic case over the years. This study indicate that the sustainable utilization of reservoir in combination with proper wastewater treatment plant and controlled use of pesticides has a potential to reduce the current nutrient loadings into Suat Uğurlu Lake. The estimated nutrient reductions that could be achieved from the management scenario would be enough to revert the lake from mesotrophic situation to trophic state. The reduction of nutrient loadings into Suat Uğurlu Lake could be achieved through the practice of Integrated Water Resource Management (IWRM, through good management. However, as long as pertinent issues of urban poverty, watershed management and public awareness and involvement in water related issues are not addressed, trophic in Suat Uğurlu Lake will remain a problem.

  9. Uncertainties in the Antarctic Ice Sheet Contribution to Sea Level Rise: Exploration of Model Response to Errors in Climate Forcing, Boundary Conditions, and Internal Parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schlegel, N.; Seroussi, H. L.; Boening, C.; Larour, E. Y.; Limonadi, D.; Schodlok, M.; Watkins, M. M.

    2017-12-01

    The Jet Propulsion Laboratory-University of California at Irvine Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM) is a thermo-mechanical 2D/3D parallelized finite element software used to physically model the continental-scale flow of ice at high resolutions. Embedded into ISSM are uncertainty quantification (UQ) tools, based on the Design Analysis Kit for Optimization and Terascale Applications (DAKOTA) software. ISSM-DAKOTA offers various UQ methods for the investigation of how errors in model input impact uncertainty in simulation results. We utilize these tools to regionally sample model input and key parameters, based on specified bounds of uncertainty, and run a suite of continental-scale 100-year ISSM forward simulations of the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Resulting diagnostics (e.g., spread in local mass flux and regional mass balance) inform our conclusion about which parameters and/or forcing has the greatest impact on century-scale model simulations of ice sheet evolution. The results allow us to prioritize the key datasets and measurements that are critical for the minimization of ice sheet model uncertainty. Overall, we find that Antartica's total sea level contribution is strongly affected by grounding line retreat, which is driven by the magnitude of ice shelf basal melt rates and by errors in bedrock topography. In addition, results suggest that after 100 years of simulation, Thwaites glacier is the most significant source of model uncertainty, and its drainage basin has the largest potential for future sea level contribution. This work is performed at and supported by the California Institute of Technology's Jet Propulsion Laboratory. Supercomputing time is also supported through a contract with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Cryosphere program.

  10. IPAB Antarctic Drifting Buoy Data

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) International Programme for Antarctic Buoys (IPAB), through participating research organizations in various countries,...

  11. Aglomerularism in Antarctic fish.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dobbs, G H; Lin, Y; DeVries, A L

    1974-08-30

    Urine formation in antarctic bony fish does not involve glomerular filtration. Evidence for aglomerularism came from both direct observation of kidney serial sections by light microscopy and the low concentrations of inulin labeled with carbon-14 that were excreted into the urine when this renal clearance tracer was injected into the bloodstream via a cannula implanted in the caudal vein. Aglomerularism most likely prevents urinary loss of glycoproteins with biological antifreeze properties.

  12. Critical Loads of Acid Deposition for Wilderness Lakes in the Sierra Nevada (California) Estimated by the Steady-State Water Chemistry Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glenn D. Shaw; Ricardo Cisneros; Donald Schweizer; James O. Sickman; Mark E. Fenn

    2014-01-01

    Major ion chemistry (2000-2009) from 208 lakes (342 sample dates and 600 samples) in class I and II wilderness areas of the Sierra Nevada was used in the Steady-State Water Chemistry (SSWC) model to estimate critical loads for acid deposition and investigate the current vulnerability of high elevation lakes to acid deposition. The majority of the lakes were dilute (...

  13. Landscape-scale modeling of water quality in Lake Superior and Lake Michigan watersheds: How useful are forest-based indicators? Journal of Great Lakes Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Titus S. Seilheimer; Patrick L. Zimmerman; Kirk M. Stueve; Charles H. Perry

    2013-01-01

    The Great Lakes watersheds have an important influence on the water quality of the nearshore environment, therefore, watershed characteristics can be used to predict what will be observed in the streams. We used novel landscape information describing the forest cover change, along with forest census data and established land cover data to predict total phosphorus and...

  14. Geochemical and Thermodinamic Modeling of Segara Anak Lake and the 2009 Eruption of Rinjani Volcano, Lombok, Indonesia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Akhmad Solikhin

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available DOI: 10.17014/ijog.v5i4.106Rinjani is the second highest volcano in Indonesia with an elevation of 3726 m above sea level. The steep and highest cone of Rinjani consists mainly of loose pyroclastic ejecta and contains a crater with a few solfataras. The West of this cone is Segara Anak caldera. The western side of the caldera is occupied by a 230 m deep lake, covering an area of 11 km² and its volume was (before the 2009 eruption estimated 1.02 km3. This is probably the largest hot volcanic lake in the world.The lake water is neutral (pH: 7-8 and its chemistry dominated by chlorides and sulfates with a relatively high TDS (Total Dissolved Solids: 2640 mg/l. This unusual TDS as well as the lake surface temperatures (20 - 22°C well above ambient temperatures (14 - 15°C for this altitude, reflect a strong input of hydrothermal fluids. Numerous hot springs are located along the shore at the foot of Barujari volcanic cone. Bathymetric profiles show also several areas with columns of gas bubbles escaping from the lake floor indicating a significant discharge of CO gas into the lake. The mass and energy balance model of Rinjani Crater Lake produce total heat lost value on the average of 1700 MW. Most of the heating periods of the lake occurred when the heat released by the surface of the lake to the atmosphere was lower than the heat supplied from the hydrothermal system. Peaks of heat losses correspond to period of strong winds. Crater lake monitoring can provide a basic information about deep magmatic activity and surface processes that occur in the volcano. The monitoring also contributes to predict the next eruption in order to improve mitigation of volcanic eruption. Precursory signals of the May 2009 eruption can be seen from significant changes in the temperature and chemistry of some of the hot springs, the increase of Fe concentrations in spring #54, chemical plume of low pH and dissolved oxygen, acidification of Segara

  15. Choosing of Optimal Reference Samples for Boreal Lake Chlorophyll a Concentration Modeling Using Aerial Hyperspectral Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erkkilä, A.-L.; Pölönen, I.; Lindfors, A.; Honkavaara, E.; Nurminen, K.; Näsi, R.

    2017-10-01

    Optical remote sensing has potential to overcome the limitations of point estimations of lake water quality by providing spatial and temporal information. In open ocean waters the optical properties are dominated by phytoplankton density, while the relationship between color and the constituents is more complicated in inland waters varying regionally and seasonally. Concerning the difficulties relating to comprehensive modeling of complex inland and coastal waters, the alternative approach is considered in this paper: the raw digital numbers (DN) recorded using aerial remote hyperspectral sensing are used without corrections and derived by means of regression modeling to predict Chlorophyll a (Chl-a) concentrations using in situ reference measurements. The target of this study is to estimate which number of local reference measurements is adequate for producing reliable statistical model to predict Chl-a concentration in complex lake water ecosystem. Based on the data collected from boreal lake Lohjanjärvi, the effect of standard deviation of Chl-a concentration of reference samples and their local clustering on predictability of model increases when number of reference samples or bands used as model variables decreases. However, the 2 or 3 band models are beneficial and more cost efficient when compared to 5 or 7 band models when the standard deviation of Chl-a concentration of reference samples is over certain level. The simple empirical approach combining remote sensing and traditional sampling may be feasible for regional and seasonal retrieval of Chl-a concentration distributions in complex ecosystems, where the comprehensive models are difficult or even impossible to derive.

  16. Structural Uncertainty in Antarctic sea ice simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schneider, D. P.

    2016-12-01

    The inability of the vast majority of historical climate model simulations to reproduce the observed increase in Antarctic sea ice has motivated many studies about the quality of the observational record, the role of natural variability versus forced changes, and the possibility of missing or inadequate forcings in the models (such as freshwater discharge from thinning ice shelves or an inadequate magnitude of stratospheric ozone depletion). In this presentation I will highlight another source of uncertainty that has received comparatively little attention: Structural uncertainty, that is, the systematic uncertainty in simulated sea ice trends that arises from model physics and mean-state biases. Using two large ensembles of experiments from the Community Earth System Model (CESM), I will show that the model is predisposed towards producing negative Antarctic sea ice trends during 1979-present, and that this outcome is not simply because the model's decadal variability is out-of-synch with that in nature. In the "Tropical Pacific Pacemaker" ensemble, in which observed tropical Pacific SST anomalies are prescribed, the model produces very realistic atmospheric circulation trends over the Southern Ocean, yet the sea ice trend is negative in every ensemble member. However, if the ensemble-mean trend (commonly interpreted as the forced response) is removed, some ensemble members show a sea ice increase that is very similar to the observed. While this results does confirm the important role of natural variability, it also suggests a strong bias in the forced response. I will discuss the reasons for this systematic bias and explore possible remedies. This an important problem to solve because projections of 21st -Century changes in the Antarctic climate system (including ice sheet surface mass balance changes and related changes in the sea level budget) have a strong dependence on the mean state of and changes in the Antarctic sea ice cover. This problem is not unique to

  17. Modelling the physical multiphase interactions of HNO3 between snow and air on the Antarctic Plateau (Dome C and coast (Halley

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. G. Chan

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Emissions of nitrogen oxide (NOx  =  NO + NO2 from the photolysis of nitrate (NO3− in snow affect the oxidising capacity of the lower troposphere especially in remote regions of high latitudes with little pollution. Current air–snow exchange models are limited by poor understanding of processes and often require unphysical tuning parameters. Here, two multiphase models were developed from physically based parameterisations to describe the interaction of nitrate between the surface layer of the snowpack and the overlying atmosphere. The first model is similar to previous approaches and assumes that below a threshold temperature, To, the air–snow grain interface is pure ice and above To a disordered interface (DI emerges covering the entire grain surface. The second model assumes that air–ice interactions dominate over all temperatures below melting of ice and that any liquid present above the eutectic temperature is concentrated in micropockets. The models are used to predict the nitrate in surface snow constrained by year-round observations of mixing ratios of nitric acid in air at a cold site on the Antarctic Plateau (Dome C; 75°06′ S, 123°33′ E; 3233 m a.s.l. and at a relatively warm site on the Antarctic coast (Halley; 75°35′ S, 26°39′ E; 35 m a.s.l. The first model agrees reasonably well with observations at Dome C (Cv(RMSE  =  1.34 but performs poorly at Halley (Cv(RMSE  =  89.28 while the second model reproduces with good agreement observations at both sites (Cv(RMSE  =  0.84 at both sites. It is therefore suggested that in winter air–snow interactions of nitrate are determined by non-equilibrium surface adsorption and co-condensation on ice coupled with solid-state diffusion inside the grain, similar to Bock et al. (2016. In summer, however, the air–snow exchange of nitrate is mainly driven by solvation into liquid micropockets following Henry's law with

  18. USE OF POM AND ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS IN THE THREEDIMENSIONAL MODELING OF LAKES : GOKPINAR DAM RESERVOIR AS A CASE STUDY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mahmut FIRAT

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available The circulation pattern in lakes and reservoirs varies according to many external factors. In situ measurement of the occuring flow pattern in every point of the lake is a very costly and hard task. For this reason, models determining the velocities and surface fluctuations are developed by using computers. The use of these models enables the generation of the foundation for the prediction of possible environmental problems and water pollution concentrations. Today, three dimensional models are widely used in the modelling of lakes and reservoirs. In this study, the velocity profiles and surface fluctuation values generated under various wind speed and directions at some sections in Gokpinar Lake in Denizli are obtained by applying artificial neural networks (ANN on the results of three dimensional hydrodynamic model of the lake made with Princeton Ocean Model (POM. The developed ANN model is applied to the same sections for different wind conditions and it is found that the results are in accordance with the results of POM. As a result of the comparisons of the models, the superiorities of the models on each other at the model generation and solution phases are determined and mentioned.

  19. Developing Flexible, Integrated Hydrologic Modeling Systems for Multiscale Analysis in the Midwest and Great Lakes Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamlet, A. F.; Chiu, C. M.; Sharma, A.; Byun, K.; Hanson, Z.

    2016-12-01

    Physically based hydrologic modeling of surface and groundwater resources that can be flexibly and efficiently applied to support water resources policy/planning/management decisions at a wide range of spatial and temporal scales are greatly needed in the Midwest, where stakeholder access to such tools is currently a fundamental barrier to basic climate change assessment and adaptation efforts, and also the co-production of useful products to support detailed decision making. Based on earlier pilot studies in the Pacific Northwest Region, we are currently assembling a suite of end-to-end tools and resources to support various kinds of water resources planning and management applications across the region. One of the key aspects of these integrated tools is that the user community can access gridded products at any point along the end-to-end chain of models, looking backwards in time about 100 years (1915-2015), and forwards in time about 85 years using CMIP5 climate model projections. The integrated model is composed of historical and projected future meteorological data based on station observations and statistical and dynamically downscaled climate model output respectively. These gridded meteorological data sets serve as forcing data for the macro-scale VIC hydrologic model implemented over the Midwest at 1/16 degree resolution. High-resolution climate model (4km WRF) output provides inputs for the analyses of urban impacts, hydrologic extremes, agricultural impacts, and impacts to the Great Lakes. Groundwater recharge estimated by the surface water model provides input data for fine-scale and macro-scale groundwater models needed for specific applications. To highlight the multi-scale use of the integrated models in support of co-production of scientific information for decision making, we briefly describe three current case studies addressing different spatial scales of analysis: 1) Effects of climate change on the water balance of the Great Lakes, 2) Future

  20. Genetic models reveal historical patterns of sea lamprey population fluctuations within Lake Champlain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cassidy C. D’Aloia

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available The origin of sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus in Lake Champlain has been heavily debated over the past decade. Given the lack of historical documentation, two competing hypotheses have emerged in the literature. First, it has been argued that the relatively recent population size increase and concomitant rise in wounding rates on prey populations are indicative of an invasive population that entered the lake through the Champlain Canal. Second, recent genetic evidence suggests a post-glacial colonization at the end of the Pleistocene, approximately 11,000 years ago. One limitation to resolving the origin of sea lamprey in Lake Champlain is a lack of historical and current measures of population size. In this study, the issue of population size was explicitly addressed using nuclear (nDNA and mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA markers to estimate historical demography with genetic models. Haplotype network analysis, mismatch analysis, and summary statistics based on mtDNA noncoding sequences for NCI (479 bp and NCII (173 bp all indicate a recent population expansion. Coalescent models based on mtDNA and nDNA identified two potential demographic events: a population decline followed by a very recent population expansion. The decline in effective population size may correlate with land-use and fishing pressure changes post-European settlement, while the recent expansion may be associated with the implementation of the salmonid stocking program in the 1970s. These results are most consistent with the hypothesis that sea lamprey are native to Lake Champlain; however, the credibility intervals around parameter estimates demonstrate that there is uncertainty regarding the magnitude and timing of past demographic events.

  1. A fugacity model for source determination of the Lake Baikal region pollution with polychlorinated Biphenyls

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sofiev, M. [Finnish Meteorological Inst., Helsinki (Finland); Galperin, M.; Maslyaev, A. [Inst. of Program Systems, Pereslavl-Zalesskiy (Russian Federation); McLachlan, M. [Stockholm Univ. (Sweden); Wania, F. [Toronto Univ. (Canada)

    2004-09-15

    PCBs were discovered in the Lake Baikal ecosystem by Malakhov et al. and Bobovnikova et al. A follow up to the initial study showed no decrease over 1981-1989 4, in contrast to what has been observed in other water bodies in the industrialised world. Further studies also showed the contamination in pinnipeds to be among the highest measured anywhere. Above studies and other data suggested a presence of a strong local PCB source (or several ones), which has had a widespread adverse effect for the whole region. To locate the source, Mamontov et al. collected samples from 34 sites over the region, the analysis of which showed a gradient of a factor of 1000, with the lowest concentrations at the north-east of Lake Baikal and the highest concentrations close to the city of Usolye Sibirskoye, a centre of the chemical industry in the Angara River valley. A continuous decrease in the soil contamination was observed along the path from Usolye Sibirskoye up the Angara River valley to Lake Baikal and from there north-eastward along the lake. These results indicate that there was (and perhaps still is) a major source of PCBs in the Usolye area, from where the PCBs are dispersed over the region. However, various obstacles prevent direct observations of potential sources. Therefore, a mathematical modelling approach was adopted in a currently ongoing INTAS project aiming to shed some more light on this problem. The model principles, setup and the results of the first experiments are presented in the current paper.

  2. Analysis of regional rainfall-runoff parameters for the Lake Michigan Diversion hydrological modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soong, David T.; Over, Thomas M.

    2015-01-01

    The Lake Michigan Diversion Accounting (LMDA) system has been developed by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Chicago District (USACE-Chicago) and the State of Illinois as a part of the interstate Great Lakes water regulatory program. The diverted Lake Michigan watershed is a 673-square-mile watershed that is comprised of the Chicago River and Calumet River watersheds. They originally drained into Lake Michigan, but now flow to the Mississippi River watershed via three canals constructed in the Chicago area in the early twentieth century. Approximately 393 square miles of the diverted watershed is ungaged, and the runoff from the ungaged portion of the diverted watershed has been estimated by the USACE-Chicago using the Hydrological Simulation Program-FORTRAN (HSPF) program. The accuracy of simulated runoff depends on the accuracy of the parameter set used in the HSPF program. Nine parameter sets comprised of the North Branch, Little Calumet, Des Plaines, Hickory Creek, CSSC, NIPC, 1999, CTE, and 2008 have been developed at different time periods and used by the USACE-Chicago. In this study, the U.S. Geological Survey and the USACE-Chicago collaboratively analyzed the parameter sets using nine gaged watersheds in or adjacent to the diverted watershed to assess the predictive accuracies of selected parameter sets. Six of the parameter sets, comprising North Branch, Hickory Creek, NIPC, 1999, CTE, and 2008, were applied to the nine gaged watersheds for evaluating their simulation accuracy from water years 1996 to 2011. The nine gaged watersheds were modeled by using the three LMDA land-cover types (grass, forest, and hydraulically connected imperviousness) based on the 2006 National Land Cover Database, and the latest meteorological and precipitation data consistent with the current (2014) LMDA modeling framework.

  3. The Application of a Phosphorus Budget Model Estimating the Carrying Capacity of Kesikköprü Dam Lake

    OpenAIRE

    PULATSÜ, Serap

    2014-01-01

    The aim of this study was to estimate the carrying capacity of Kesikköprü Dam Lake, Ankara, where cage farms for the intensive culture of rainbow trout are located. For this purpose Dillon and Rigler's phosphorus budget model was applied in a series of steps and the carrying capacity of the lake was found to be 3335 tonnes per year. This estimated value was about 10 times higher than the present production level of the lake. It seems possible to orientate the fish culture in cages in...

  4. Antarctic, Sub-Antarctic and cold temperate echinoid database

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Benjamin Pierrat

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available This database includes spatial data of Antarctic, Sub-Antarctic and cold temperate echinoid distribution (Echinodermata: Echinoidea collected during many oceanographic campaigns led in the Southern Hemisphere from 1872 to 2010. The dataset lists occurrence data of echinoid distribution south of 35°S latitude, together with information on taxonomy (from species to genus level, sampling sources (cruise ID, sampling dates, ship names and sampling sites (geographic coordinates and depth. Echinoid occurrence data were compiled from the Antarctic Echinoid Database (David et al., 2005a, which integrates records from oceanographic cruises led in the Southern Ocean until 2003. This database has been upgraded to take into account data from oceanographic cruises led after 2003. The dataset now reaches a total of 6160 occurrence data that have been checked for systematics reliability and consistency. It constitutes today the most complete database on Antarctic and Sub-Antarctic echinoids.

  5. A metabolism-based whole lake eutrophication model to estimate the magnitude and time scales of the effects of restoration in Upper Klamath Lake, south-central Oregon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wherry, Susan A.; Wood, Tamara M.

    2018-04-27

    A whole lake eutrophication (WLE) model approach for phosphorus and cyanobacterial biomass in Upper Klamath Lake, south-central Oregon, is presented here. The model is a successor to a previous model developed to inform a Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) for phosphorus in the lake, but is based on net primary production (NPP), which can be calculated from dissolved oxygen, rather than scaling up a small-scale description of cyanobacterial growth and respiration rates. This phase 3 WLE model is a refinement of the proof-of-concept developed in phase 2, which was the first attempt to use NPP to simulate cyanobacteria in the TMDL model. The calibration of the calculated NPP WLE model was successful, with performance metrics indicating a good fit to calibration data, and the calculated NPP WLE model was able to simulate mid-season bloom decreases, a feature that previous models could not reproduce.In order to use the model to simulate future scenarios based on phosphorus load reduction, a multivariate regression model was created to simulate NPP as a function of the model state variables (phosphorus and chlorophyll a) and measured meteorological and temperature model inputs. The NPP time series was split into a low- and high-frequency component using wavelet analysis, and regression models were fit to the components separately, with moderate success.The regression models for NPP were incorporated in the WLE model, referred to as the “scenario” WLE (SWLE), and the fit statistics for phosphorus during the calibration period were mostly unchanged. The fit statistics for chlorophyll a, however, were degraded. These statistics are still an improvement over prior models, and indicate that the SWLE is appropriate for long-term predictions even though it misses some of the seasonal variations in chlorophyll a.The complete whole lake SWLE model, with multivariate regression to predict NPP, was used to make long-term simulations of the response to 10-, 20-, and 40-percent

  6. Integrating chronological uncertainties for annually laminated lake sediments using layer counting, independent chronologies and Bayesian age modelling (Lake Ohau, South Island, New Zealand)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vandergoes, Marcus J.; Howarth, Jamie D.; Dunbar, Gavin B.; Turnbull, Jocelyn C.; Roop, Heidi A.; Levy, Richard H.; Li, Xun; Prior, Christine; Norris, Margaret; Keller, Liz D.; Baisden, W. Troy; Ditchburn, Robert; Fitzsimons, Sean J.; Bronk Ramsey, Christopher

    2018-05-01

    Annually resolved (varved) lake sequences are important palaeoenvironmental archives as they offer a direct incremental dating technique for high-frequency reconstruction of environmental and climate change. Despite the importance of these records, establishing a robust chronology and quantifying its precision and accuracy (estimations of error) remains an essential but challenging component of their development. We outline an approach for building reliable independent chronologies, testing the accuracy of layer counts and integrating all chronological uncertainties to provide quantitative age and error estimates for varved lake sequences. The approach incorporates (1) layer counts and estimates of counting precision; (2) radiometric and biostratigrapic dating techniques to derive independent chronology; and (3) the application of Bayesian age modelling to produce an integrated age model. This approach is applied to a case study of an annually resolved sediment record from Lake Ohau, New Zealand. The most robust age model provides an average error of 72 years across the whole depth range. This represents a fractional uncertainty of ∼5%, higher than the <3% quoted for most published varve records. However, the age model and reported uncertainty represent the best fit between layer counts and independent chronology and the uncertainties account for both layer counting precision and the chronological accuracy of the layer counts. This integrated approach provides a more representative estimate of age uncertainty and therefore represents a statistically more robust chronology.

  7. Modeling phosphorus in the Lake Allatoona watershed using SWAT: I. Developing phosphorus parameter values.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Radcliffe, D E; Lin, Z; Risse, L M; Romeis, J J; Jackson, C R

    2009-01-01

    Lake Allatoona is a large reservoir north of Atlanta, GA, that drains an area of about 2870 km2 scheduled for a phosphorus (P) total maximum daily load (TMDL). The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model has been widely used for watershed-scale modeling of P, but there is little guidance on how to estimate P-related parameters, especially those related to in-stream P processes. In this paper, methods are demonstrated to individually estimate SWAT soil-related P parameters and to collectively estimate P parameters related to stream processes. Stream related parameters were obtained using the nutrient uptake length concept. In a manner similar to experiments conducted by stream ecologists, a small point source is simulated in a headwater sub-basin of the SWAT models, then the in-stream parameter values are adjusted collectively to get an uptake length of P similar to the values measured in the streams in the region. After adjusting the in-stream parameters, the P uptake length estimated in the simulations ranged from 53 to 149 km compared to uptake lengths measured by ecologists in the region of 11 to 85 km. Once the a priori P-related parameter set was developed, the SWAT models of main tributaries to Lake Allatoona were calibrated for daily transport. Models using SWAT P parameters derived from the methods in this paper outperformed models using default parameter values when predicting total P (TP) concentrations in streams during storm events and TP annual loads to Lake Allatoona.

  8. Validation of a model with climatic and flow scenario analysis: case of Lake Burrumbeet in southeastern Australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yihdego, Yohannes; Webb, John

    2016-05-01

    Forecast evaluation is an important topic that addresses the development of reliable hydrological probabilistic forecasts, mainly through the use of climate uncertainties. Often, validation has no place in hydrology for most of the times, despite the parameters of a model are uncertain. Similarly, the structure of the model can be incorrectly chosen. A calibrated and verified dynamic hydrologic water balance spreadsheet model has been used to assess the effect of climate variability on Lake Burrumbeet, southeastern Australia. The lake level has been verified to lake level, lake volume, lake surface area, surface outflow and lake salinity. The current study aims to increase lake level confidence model prediction through historical validation for the year 2008-2013, under different climatic scenario. Based on the observed climatic condition (2008-2013), it fairly matches with a hybridization of scenarios, being the period interval (2008-2013), corresponds to both dry and wet climatic condition. Besides to the hydrologic stresses uncertainty, uncertainty in the calibrated model is among the major drawbacks involved in making scenario simulations. In line with this, the uncertainty in the calibrated model was tested using sensitivity analysis and showed that errors in the model can largely be attributed to erroneous estimates of evaporation and rainfall, and surface inflow to a lesser. The study demonstrates that several climatic scenarios should be analysed, with a combination of extreme climate, stream flow and climate change instead of one assumed climatic sequence, to improve climate variability prediction in the future. Performing such scenario analysis is a valid exercise to comprehend the uncertainty with the model structure and hydrology, in a meaningful way, without missing those, even considered as less probable, ultimately turned to be crucial for decision making and will definitely increase the confidence of model prediction for management of the water

  9. A DPSIR model for ecological security assessment through indicator screening: a case study at Dianchi Lake in China.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhen Wang

    Full Text Available Given the important role of lake ecosystems in social and economic development, and the current severe environmental degradation in China, a systematic diagnosis of the ecological security of lakes is essential for sustainable development. A Driving-force, Pressure, Status, Impact, and Risk (DPSIR model, combined with data screening for lake ecological security assessment was developed to overcome the disadvantages of data selection in existing assessment methods. Correlation and principal component analysis were used to select independent and representative data. The DPSIR model was then applied to evaluate the ecological security of Dianchi Lake in China during 1988-2007 using an ecological security index. The results revealed a V-shaped trend. The application of the DPSIR model with data screening provided useful information regarding the status of the lake's ecosystem, while ensuring information efficiency and eliminating multicollinearity. The modeling approach described here is practical and operationally efficient, and provides an attractive alternative approach to assess the ecological security of lakes.

  10. Forecasting effects of climate change on Great Lakes fisheries: models that link habitat supply to population dynamics can help

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Michael L.; Shuter, Brian J.; Zhao, Yingming; Stockwell, Jason D.

    2006-01-01

    Future changes to climate in the Great Lakes may have important consequences for fisheries. Evidence suggests that Great Lakes air and water temperatures have risen and the duration of ice cover has lessened during the past century. Global circulation models (GCMs) suggest future warming and increases in precipitation in the region. We present new evidence that water temperatures have risen in Lake Erie, particularly during summer and winter in the period 1965–2000. GCM forecasts coupled with physical models suggest lower annual runoff, less ice cover, and lower lake levels in the future, but the certainty of these forecasts is low. Assessment of the likely effects of climate change on fish stocks will require an integrative approach that considers several components of habitat rather than water temperature alone. We recommend using mechanistic models that couple habitat conditions to population demographics to explore integrated effects of climate-caused habitat change and illustrate this approach with a model for Lake Erie walleye (Sander vitreum). We show that the combined effect on walleye populations of plausible changes in temperature, river hydrology, lake levels, and light penetration can be quite different from that which would be expected based on consideration of only a single factor.

  11. Forecasting the evolution in the mixing regime of a deep subalpine lake under climate change scenarios through numerical modelling (Lake Maggiore, Northern Italy/Southern Switzerland)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fenocchi, Andrea; Rogora, Michela; Sibilla, Stefano; Ciampittiello, Marzia; Dresti, Claudia

    2018-01-01

    The impact of air temperature rise is eminent for the large deep lakes in the Italian subalpine district, climate change being caused there by both natural phenomena and anthropogenic greenhouse-gases (GHG) emissions. These oligomictic lakes are experiencing a decrease in the frequency of winter full turnover and an intensification of stability. As a result, hypolimnetic oxygen concentrations are decreasing and nutrients are accumulating in bottom water, with effects on the whole ecosystem functioning. Forecasting the future evolution of the mixing pattern is relevant to assess if a reduction in GHG releases would be able to revert such processes. The study focuses on Lake Maggiore, for which the thermal structure evolution under climate change in the 2016-2085 period was assessed through numerical simulations, performed with the General Lake Model (GLM). Different prospects of regional air temperature rise were considered, given by the Swiss Climate Change Scenarios CH2011. Multiple realisations were performed for each scenario to obtain robust statistical predictions, adopting random series of meteorological data produced with the Vector-Autoregressive Weather Generator (VG). Results show that a reversion in the increasing thermal stability would be possible only if global GHG emissions started to be reduced by 2020, allowing an equilibrium mixing regime to be restored by the end of the twenty-first century. Otherwise, persistent lack of complete-mixing, severe water warming and extensive effects on water quality are to be expected for the centuries to come. These projections can be extended to the other lakes in the subalpine district.

  12. Modelling reversibility of Central European mountain lakes from acidification: Part I - the Bohemian forest

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Majer

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available A dynamic, process-based acidification model, MAGIC7, has been applied to three small, strongly acidified lakes in the Bohemian Forest, the Czech Republic. The model was calibrated for a set of experimental records on lake water composition over the 1984–2000 period, and produced hindcast concentrations that compared well, even with older (40-year irregular determinations of nitrate, chloride and pH. Water and soil chemistry forecasts up to 2050 were based on reductions in S and N emissions presupposed by the Gothenburg Protocol. Modelled sulphate and chloride concentrations were predicted to decrease to the levels at the beginning of the 20th century by 2050. The lake water carbonate buffering system is predicted to be re-established in only two lakes (Cerné and Plešné, with current soil base saturations of 12-15%. Concentrations of ionic aluminium species decreased sharply, from 110 μeq l-1 in the mid-1980s to the current ~40 μeq l-1, and were predicted to decrease below 10 μeq l-1 in the 2020s. Diatom-inferred pH in pre-industrial times was substantially lower than modelled pH. It is suggested that the diatom pH, based almost entirely on non-planktonic species, is biased by inwash of diatoms from more acidic tributaries into the sediment of these small lakes. Generally significant results can be summarised as follows: (1 Simulated sulphate levels agree well with observations during acidification progress and retreat only for values of soil SO42- adsorption capacity three to six times (20 to 40 μeq kg-1 higher than those found experimentally. This implies a further mechanism of S retention and release in addition to physical sulphate adsorption to Fe and Al oxides of soils. (2 The catchments’ ability to retain deposited N appeared to decline after ~1950 but this was not connected with a sufficient change in the C:N ratio of the soils. Agreement between modelled and observed concentrations of nitrate was therefore achieved by

  13. Simulation models for water pollution in rivers and lakes; Suishitsu osen no simulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hosomi, M. [Tokyo Univ. of Agriculture and Technology, Koganei (Japan). Faculty of Technology

    1996-11-05

    Rivers, lakes, and dam lakes are taken up as fields related to urban environment, and simulation models for water pollution control is introduced which are considered to be important for controlling water quality. In connection with rivers, a model showing the relationship between organic contamination and DO (dissolved oxygen) as well as an analyzed example of the use of continuous data of easy-to-measure DO are introduced. DO and pH in urban rivers sometimes exceed the environmental standards in the dry season. The cause is greater effect of biofilm adhesion at the river bed due to elongated staying time, and the establishment of the maintained river flow rate must be reviewed. One of the problems of ecological models is the deficiency of the data for the verification of the ecological models, and arrangement to solve the problem is required. Although it is admitted that simulation of phytoplankton in which neural network is employed has just started, it is expected to become an effective means for the study of phenomena which can not be elucidated by the modeling using normal numeric models. 7 refs., 13 figs.

  14. Simulation of the Twin Lake tracer tests using different transport models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaleris, V.; Klukas, M.; Moltyaner, G.L.

    1990-01-01

    The 1983 Twin Lake tracer test was simulated using two different sets of the aquifer parameters and three different numerical models. The purpose of the simulations was to identify the parameter set and the model most appropriate to describe the transport phenomena in the Twin Lake aquifer. It is shown that a reliable estimation of the aquifer parameters cannot be obtained from the flow model alone. Transport models must also be used to obtain a reliable estimate of parameters. The method-of-characteristics and random-walk models were used for this purpose. The sensitivity of the results to different execution parameters was evaluated and the required computational efforts were compared. Finally, results obtained by the method of characteristics were compared with the results of a finite element simulation carried out with the same spatial discretization. The comparison demonstrates the influence of the numerical dispersion on the results of the finite element method. Travel time calculations represent a simple way to test the accuracy of the aquifer parameters before transport modeling is done. (Author) (14 refs, 19 figs., 3 tabs.)

  15. Modeled sensitivity of Lake Michigan productivity and zooplankton to changing nutrient concentrations and quagga mussels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pilcher, Darren J.; McKinley, Galen A.; Kralj, James; Bootsma, Harvey A.; Reavie, Euan D.

    2017-08-01

    The recent decline in Lake Michigan productivity is often attributed to filter feeding by invasive quagga mussels, but some studies also implicate reductions in lakewide nutrient concentrations. We use a 3-D coupled hydrodynamic-biogeochemical model to evaluate the effect of changing nutrient concentrations and quagga mussel filtering on phytoplankton production and phytoplankton and zooplankton biomass. Sensitivity experiments are used to assess the net effect of each change separately and in unison. Quagga mussels are found to have the greatest impact during periods of isothermal mixing, while nutrients have the greatest impact during thermal stratification. Quagga mussels also act to enhance spatial heterogeneity, particularly between nearshore-offshore regions. This effect produces a reversal in the gradient of nearshore-offshore productivity: from relatively greater nearshore productivity in the prequagga lake to relatively lesser nearshore productivity after quaggas. The combined impact of both processes drives substantial reductions in phytoplankton and zooplankton biomass, as well as significant modifications to the seasonality of surface water pCO2, particularly in nearshore regions where mussel grazing continues year-round. These results support growing concern that considerable losses of phytoplankton and zooplankton will yield concurrent losses at higher trophic levels. Comparisons to observed productivity suggest that both quagga mussel filtration and lower lakewide total phosphorus are necessary to accurately simulate recent changes in primary productivity in Lake Michigan.

  16. Modelling of the underwater disposal of uranium mine tailings in Elliot Lake

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Halbert, B.E.; Scharer, J.M.; Chakravatti, J.L.; Barnes, E.

    1982-01-01

    Underwater disposal of uranium mine tailings from the Elliot Lake area operations offers potential advantages in controlling radon gas release, emission of airborne particulate matter, and acid production from pyrites in the tailings. In addition, the proximity of the three active properties, one owned by Denison Mines Limited and two by Rio Algom Limited, to a large deep lake has spurred interest in the concept. It has been estimated that the placement of approximately 150 million tonnes of tailings from future planned production would occupy less than 20% of the lake volume. To assess the applicability of the underwater tailings disposal concept, a multi-stage study was developed in conjunction with the regulatory agencies. The most important facet identified for investigation during the first-stage investigations was an assessment of the effects of underwater disposal on water quality in the Serpent River Basin watershed. To simulate the effects of underwater disposal, a computer simulation routine was developed and integrated with a water quality model previously developed for the Basin which predicts levels of total dissolved solids, ammonia, dissolved radium-226 and pH. The underwater disposal model component reflects the effects of direct input of tailings into the hypolimnion, the chemical/biological transformation of dissolved constituents in the water column, the reactions of pyritic tailings deposited on the bottom, and the flux of dissolved constituents from the tailings into the water column. To establish site-specific values for the underwater disposal model, field and laboratory experiments were utilized to evaluate rates of pyrite and ammonia oxidation, and pH-alkalinity relationships. The results of these studies and their use in the water quality model are discussed. In addition, the results of two model run simulations are presented. (author)

  17. Temperature Modeling of Lost Creek Lake Using CE-QUAL-W2: A Report on the Development, Calibration, Verification, and Application of the Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-05-01

    ER D C/ EL T R- 17 -6 Temperature Modeling of Applegate Lake Using CE-QUAL-W2 A Report on the Development, Calibration, Verification...library at http://acwc.sdp.sirsi.net/client/default. ERDC/EL TR-17-6 May 2017 Temperature Modeling of Applegate Lake Using CE-QUAL-W2 A Report on...model and the corresponding results from the study provided CENWP with more refined estimates of water temperatures so that more defendable water

  18. Modeling detection probability to improve marsh bird surveys in southern Canada and the Great Lakes states

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Douglas C. Tozer

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Marsh birds are notoriously elusive, with variation in detection probability across species, regions, seasons, and different times of day and weather. Therefore, it is important to develop regional field survey protocols that maximize detections, but that also produce data for estimating and analytically adjusting for remaining differences in detections. We aimed to improve regional field survey protocols by estimating detection probability of eight elusive marsh bird species throughout two regions that have ongoing marsh bird monitoring programs: the southern Canadian Prairies (Prairie region and the southern portion of the Great Lakes basin and parts of southern Québec (Great Lakes-St. Lawrence region. We accomplished our goal using generalized binomial N-mixture models and data from ~22,300 marsh bird surveys conducted between 2008 and 2014 by Bird Studies Canada's Prairie, Great Lakes, and Québec Marsh Monitoring Programs. Across all species, on average, detection probability was highest in the Great Lakes-St. Lawrence region from the beginning of May until mid-June, and then fell throughout the remainder of the season until the end of June; was lowest in the Prairie region in mid-May and then increased throughout the remainder of the season until the end of June; was highest during darkness compared with light; and did not vary significantly according to temperature (range: 0-30°C, cloud cover (0%-100%, or wind (0-20 kph, or during morning versus evening. We used our results to formulate improved marsh bird survey protocols for each region. Our analysis and recommendations are useful and contribute to conservation of wetland birds at various scales from local single-species studies to the continental North American Marsh Bird Monitoring Program.

  19. Intraguild Predation Dynamics in a Lake Ecosystem Based on a Coupled Hydrodynamic-Ecological Model: The Example of Lake Kinneret (Israel).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Makler-Pick, Vardit; Hipsey, Matthew R; Zohary, Tamar; Carmel, Yohay; Gal, Gideon

    2017-03-29

    The food web of Lake Kinneret contains intraguild predation (IGP). Predatory invertebrates and planktivorous fish both feed on herbivorous zooplankton, while the planktivorous fish also feed on the predatory invertebrates. In this study, a complex mechanistic hydrodynamic-ecological model, coupled to a bioenergetics-based fish population model (DYCD-FISH), was employed with the aim of revealing IGP dynamics. The results indicate that the predation pressure of predatory zooplankton on herbivorous zooplankton varies widely, depending on the season. At the time of its annual peak, it is 10-20 times higher than the fish predation pressure. When the number of fish was significantly higher, as occurs in the lake after atypical meteorological years, the effect was a shift from a bottom-up controlled ecosystem, to the top-down control of planktivorous fish and a significant reduction of predatory and herbivorous zooplankton biomass. Yet, seasonally, the decrease in predatory-zooplankton biomass was followed by a decrease in their predation pressure on herbivorous zooplankton, leading to an increase of herbivorous zooplankton biomass to an extent similar to the base level. The analysis demonstrates the emergence of non-equilibrium IGP dynamics due to intra-annual and inter-annual changes in the physico-chemical characteristics of the lake, and suggests that IGP dynamics should be considered in food web models in order to more accurately capture mass transfer and trophic interactions.

  20. 3D-modelling of the thermal circumstances of a lake under artificial aeration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tian, Xiaoqing; Pan, Huachen; Köngäs, Petrina; Horppila, Jukka

    2017-12-01

    A 3D-model was developed to study the effects of hypolimnetic aeration on the temperature profile of a thermally stratified Lake Vesijärvi (southern Finland). Aeration was conducted by pumping epilimnetic water through the thermocline to the hypolimnion without breaking the thermal stratification. The model used time transient equation based on Navier-Stokes equation. The model was fitted to the vertical temperature distribution and environmental parameters (wind, air temperature, and solar radiation) before the onset of aeration, and the model was used to predict the vertical temperature distribution 3 and 15 days after the onset of aeration (1 August and 22 August). The difference between the modelled and observed temperature was on average 0.6 °C. The average percentage model error was 4.0% on 1 August and 3.7% on 22 August. In the epilimnion, model accuracy depended on the difference between the observed temperature and boundary conditions. In the hypolimnion, the model residual decreased with increasing depth. On 1 August, the model predicted a homogenous temperature profile in the hypolimnion, while the observed temperature decreased moderately from the thermocline to the bottom. This was because the effect of sediment was not included in the model. On 22 August, the modelled and observed temperatures near the bottom were identical demonstrating that the heat transfer by the aerator masked the effect of sediment and that exclusion of sediment heat from the model does not cause considerable error unless very short-term effects of aeration are studied. In all, the model successfully described the effects of the aerator on the lake's temperature profile. The results confirmed the validity of the applied computational fluid dynamic in artificial aeration; based on the simulated results, the effect of aeration can be predicted.

  1. Modelling the growth of tambaqui, Colossoma macropomum (Cuvier, 1816) in floodplain lakes: model selection and multimodel inference.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costa, L R F; Barthem, R B; Albernaz, A L; Bittencourt, M M; Villacorta-Corrêa, M A

    2013-05-01

    The tambaqui, Colossoma macropomum, is one of the most commercially valuable Amazonian fish species, and in the floodplains of the region, they are caught in both rivers and lakes. Most growth studies on this species to date have adjusted only one growth model, the von Bertalanffy, without considering its possible uncertainties. In this study, four different models (von Bertalanffy, Logistic, Gompertz and the general model of Schnüte-Richards) were adjusted to a data set of fish caught within lakes from the middle Solimões River. These models were adjusted by non-linear equations, using the sample size of each age class as its weight. The adjustment evaluation of each model was based on the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), the variation of AIC between the models (Δi) and the evidence weights (wi). Both the Logistic (Δi = 0.0) and Gompertz (Δi = 1.12) models were supported by the data, but neither of them was clearly superior (wi, respectively 52.44 and 29.95%). Thus, we propose the use of an averaged-model to estimate the asymptotic length (L∞). The averaged-model, based on Logistic and Gompertz models, resulted in an estimate of L∞=90.36, indicating that the tambaqui would take approximately 25 years to reach average size.

  2. Thermal Pollution Mathematical Model. Volume 4: Verification of Three-Dimensional Rigid-Lid Model at Lake Keowee. [envrionment impact of thermal discharges from power plants

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, S. S.; Sengupta, S.; Nwadike, E. V.; Sinha, S. K.

    1980-01-01

    The rigid lid model was developed to predict three dimensional temperature and velocity distributions in lakes. This model was verified at various sites (Lake Belews, Biscayne Bay, etc.) and th verification at Lake Keowee was the last of these series of verification runs. The verification at Lake Keowee included the following: (1) selecting the domain of interest, grid systems, and comparing the preliminary results with archival data; (2) obtaining actual ground truth and infrared scanner data both for summer and winter; and (3) using the model to predict the measured data for the above periods and comparing the predicted results with the actual data. The model results compared well with measured data. Thus, the model can be used as an effective predictive tool for future sites.

  3. Predictive models for Escherichia coli concentrations at inland lake beaches and relationship of model variables to pathogen detection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Francy, Donna S; Stelzer, Erin A; Duris, Joseph W; Brady, Amie M G; Harrison, John H; Johnson, Heather E; Ware, Michael W

    2013-03-01

    Predictive models, based on environmental and water quality variables, have been used to improve the timeliness and accuracy of recreational water quality assessments, but their effectiveness has not been studied in inland waters. Sampling at eight inland recreational lakes in Ohio was done in order to investigate using predictive models for Escherichia coli and to understand the links between E. coli concentrations, predictive variables, and pathogens. Based upon results from 21 beach sites, models were developed for 13 sites, and the most predictive variables were rainfall, wind direction and speed, turbidity, and water temperature. Models were not developed at sites where the E. coli standard was seldom exceeded. Models were validated at nine sites during an independent year. At three sites, the model resulted in increased correct responses, sensitivities, and specificities compared to use of the previous day's E. coli concentration (the current method). Drought conditions during the validation year precluded being able to adequately assess model performance at most of the other sites. Cryptosporidium, adenovirus, eaeA (E. coli), ipaH (Shigella), and spvC (Salmonella) were found in at least 20% of samples collected for pathogens at five sites. The presence or absence of the three bacterial genes was related to some of the model variables but was not consistently related to E. coli concentrations. Predictive models were not effective at all inland lake sites; however, their use at two lakes with high swimmer densities will provide better estimates of public health risk than current methods and will be a valuable resource for beach managers and the public.

  4. Investigating the effect of recruitment variability on length-based recruitment indices for antarctic krill using an individual-based population dynamics model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stéphane Thanassekos

    Full Text Available Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba; herein krill is monitored as part of an on-going fisheries observer program that collects length-frequency data. A krill feedback management programme is currently being developed, and as part of this development, the utility of data-derived indices describing population level processes is being assessed. To date, however, little work has been carried out on the selection of optimum recruitment indices and it has not been possible to assess the performance of length-based recruitment indices across a range of recruitment variability. Neither has there been an assessment of uncertainty in the relationship between an index and the actual level of recruitment. Thus, until now, it has not been possible to take into account recruitment index uncertainty in krill stock management or when investigating relationships between recruitment and environmental drivers. Using length-frequency samples from a simulated population - where recruitment is known - the performance of six potential length-based recruitment indices is assessed, by exploring the index-to-recruitment relationship under increasing levels of recruitment variability (from ±10% to ±100% around a mean annual recruitment. The annual minimum of the proportion of individuals smaller than 40 mm (F40 min, % was selected because it had the most robust index-to-recruitment relationship across differing levels of recruitment variability. The relationship was curvilinear and best described by a power law. Model uncertainty was described using the 95% prediction intervals, which were used to calculate coverage probabilities and assess model performance. Despite being the optimum recruitment index, the performance of F40 min degraded under high (>50% recruitment variability. Due to the persistence of cohorts in the population over several years, the inclusion of F40 min values from preceding years in the relationship used to estimate recruitment in a given year

  5. Integrated satellite InSAR and slope stability modeling to support hazard assessment at the Safuna Alta glacial lake, Peru

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cochachin, Alejo; Frey, Holger; Huggel, Christian; Strozzi, Tazio; Büechi, Emanuel; Cui, Fanpeng; Flores, Andrés; Saito, Carlos

    2017-04-01

    The Safuna glacial lakes (77˚ 37' W, 08˚ 50' S) are located in the headwater of the Tayapampa catchment, in the northernmost part of the Cordillera Blanca, Peru. The upper lake, Laguna Safuna Alta at 4354 m asl has formed in the 1960s behind a terminal moraine of the retreating Pucajirca Glacier, named after the peak south of the lakes. Safuna Alta currently has a volume of 15 x 106 m3. In 2002 a rock fall of several million m3 from the proximal left lateral moraine hit the Safuna Alta lake and triggered an impact wave which overtopped the moraine dam and passed into the lower lake, Laguna Safuna Baja, which absorbed most of the outburst flood from the upper lake, but nevertheless causing loss in cattle, degradation of agricultural land downstream and damages to a hydroelectric power station in Quitaracsa gorge. Event reconstructions showed that the impact wave in the Safuna Alta lake had a runup height of 100 m or more, and weakened the moraine dam of Safuna Alta. This fact, in combination with the large lake volumes and the continued possibility for landslides from the left proximal moraine pose a considerable risk for the downstream settlements as well as the recently completed Quitaracsa hydroelectric power plant. In the framework of a project funded by the European Space Agency (ESA), the hazard situation at the Safuna Alta lake is assessed by a combination of satellite radar data analysis, field investigations, and slope stability modeling. Interferometric analyses of the Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) of ALOS-1 Palsar-1, ALOS-2 Palsar-2 and Sentinel-1 data from 2016 reveal terrain displacements of 2 cm y-1 in the detachment zone of the 2002 rock avalanche. More detailed insights into the characteristics of these terrain deformations are gained by repeat surveys with differential GPS (DGPS) and tachymetric measurements. A drone flight provides the information for the generation of a high-resolution digital elevation model (DEM), which is used for the

  6. The application of a coupled water-balance-salinity model to evaluate the sensitivity of a lake dominated by groundwater to climatic variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crowe, A. S.

    1993-01-01

    A dynamic hydrologic model, specifically designed to assess lake-groundwater systems, has been used to provide insight into the effects of climatic variability on Wabamun Lake and its watershed, in Alberta, Canada. This lake is typical of many lakes in the prairies of Canada or western plains of the United States in that groundwater exhibits a dominant role in the hydrologic balance of the lake. Sensitivity analyses indicate that small changes in temperature (1-2°C rise) or precipitation (5-10% decline) throughout the watershed, may significantly impact upon the quality of the lake water and the availability of groundwater resources. Specifically, a long-term temperature rise that increases evaporation, or a decrease in precipitation, will reduce the amount of water available to recharge the groundwater-flow regime. Groundwater storage in the watershed will further decline due to continued discharge to the lake. The effect of climatic variability on the quantity of water in Wabamun Lake (as reflected by its surface elevation) is relatively small. However, the salinity of the lake will increase dramatically, due to: (1) the loss of surface runod and direct precipitation, which act to dilute the salinity; (2) increased evaporation, which concentrates the salts left in the lake water; (3) reduced surface discharge from the lake as its surface elevation falls below the elevation of the outlet, which removes dissolved mass from the lake.

  7. Catchment tracers reveal discharge, recharge and sources of groundwater-borne pollutants in a novel lake modelling approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kristensen, Emil; Madsen-Østerbye, Mikkel; Massicotte, Philippe; Pedersen, Ole; Markager, Stiig; Kragh, Theis

    2018-02-01

    Groundwater-borne contaminants such as nutrients, dissolved organic carbon (DOC), coloured dissolved organic matter (CDOM) and pesticides can have an impact the biological quality of lakes. The sources of pollutants can, however, be difficult to identify due to high heterogeneity in groundwater flow patterns. This study presents a novel approach for fast hydrological surveys of small groundwater-fed lakes using multiple groundwater-borne tracers. Water samples were collected from the lake and temporary groundwater wells, installed every 50 m within a distance of 5-45 m to the shore, were analysed for tracer concentrations of CDOM, DOC, total dissolved nitrogen (TDN, groundwater only), total nitrogen (TN, lake only), total dissolved phosphorus (TDP, groundwater only), total phosphorus (TP, lake only), δ18O / δ16O isotope ratios and fluorescent dissolved organic matter (FDOM) components derived from parallel factor analysis (PARAFAC). The isolation of groundwater recharge areas was based on δ18O measurements and areas with a high groundwater recharge rate were identified using a microbially influenced FDOM component. Groundwater discharge sites and the fractions of water delivered from the individual sites were isolated with the Community Assembly via Trait Selection model (CATS). The CATS model utilized tracer measurements of TDP, TDN, DOC and CDOM from the groundwater samples and related these to the tracer measurements of TN, TP, DOC and CDOM in the lake. A direct comparison between the lake and the inflowing groundwater was possible as degradation rates of the tracers in the lake were taken into account and related to a range of water retention times (WRTs) of the lake (0.25-3.5 years in 0.25-year increments). These estimations showed that WRTs above 2 years required a higher tracer concentration of inflowing water than found in any of the groundwater wells around the lake. From the estimations of inflowing tracer concentration, the CATS model isolated

  8. Modelling the Early Weichselian Eurasian Ice Sheets: role of ice shelves and influence of ice-dammed lakes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Peyaud

    2007-07-01

    Full Text Available During the last glaciation, a marine ice sheet repeatedly appeared in Eurasia. The floating part of this ice sheet was essential to its rapid extension over the seas. During the earliest stage (90 kyr BP, large ice-dammed lakes formed south of the ice sheet. These lakes are believed to have cooled the climate at the margin of the ice. Using an ice sheet model, we investigated the role of ice shelves during the inception and the influence of ice-dammed lakes on the ice sheet evolution. Inception in Barents sea seems due to thickening of a large ice shelf. We observe a substantial impact of the lakes on the evolution of the ice sheets. Reduced summer ablation enhances ice extent and thickness, and the deglaciation is delayed by 2000 years.

  9. Transcriptomics and comparative analysis of three antarctic notothenioid fishes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seung Chul Shin

    Full Text Available For the past 10 to 13 million years, Antarctic notothenioid fish have undergone extraordinary periods of evolution and have adapted to a cold and highly oxygenated Antarctic marine environment. While these species are considered an attractive model with which to study physiology and evolutionary adaptation, they are poorly characterized at the molecular level, and sequence information is lacking. The transcriptomes of the Antarctic fishes Notothenia coriiceps, Chaenocephalus aceratus, and Pleuragramma antarcticum were obtained by 454 FLX Titanium sequencing of a normalized cDNA library. More than 1,900,000 reads were assembled in a total of 71,539 contigs. Overall, 40% of the contigs were annotated based on similarity to known protein or nucleotide sequences, and more than 50% of the predicted transcripts were validated as full-length or putative full-length cDNAs. These three Antarctic fishes shared 663 genes expressed in the brain and 1,557 genes expressed in the liver. In addition, these cold-adapted fish expressed more Ub-conjugated proteins compared to temperate fish; Ub-conjugated proteins are involved in maintaining proteins in their native state in the cold and thermally stable Antarctic environments. Our transcriptome analysis of Antarctic notothenioid fish provides an archive for future studies in molecular mechanisms of fundamental genetic questions, and can be used in evolution studies comparing other fish.

  10. Random forests as cumulative effects models: A case study of lakes and rivers in Muskoka, Canada.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, F Chris; Plewes, Rachel; Murison, Lorna; MacDougall, Mark J; Sinclair, Sarah; Davies, Christie; Bailey, John L; Richardson, Murray; Gunn, John

    2017-10-01

    Cumulative effects assessment (CEA) - a type of environmental appraisal - lacks effective methods for modeling cumulative effects, evaluating indicators of ecosystem condition, and exploring the likely outcomes of development scenarios. Random forests are an extension of classification and regression trees, which model response variables by recursive partitioning. Random forests were used to model a series of candidate ecological indicators that described lakes and rivers from a case study watershed (The Muskoka River Watershed, Canada). Suitability of the candidate indicators for use in cumulative effects assessment and watershed monitoring was assessed according to how well they could be predicted from natural habitat features and how sensitive they were to human land-use. The best models explained 75% of the variation in a multivariate descriptor of lake benthic-macroinvertebrate community structure, and 76% of the variation in the conductivity of river water. Similar results were obtained by cross-validation. Several candidate indicators detected a simulated doubling of urban land-use in their catchments, and a few were able to detect a simulated doubling of agricultural land-use. The paper demonstrates that random forests can be used to describe the combined and singular effects of multiple stressors and natural environmental factors, and furthermore, that random forests can be used to evaluate the performance of monitoring indicators. The numerical methods presented are applicable to any ecosystem and indicator type, and therefore represent a step forward for CEA. Crown Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Investigating palaeo-subglacial lakes in the central Barents Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Esteves, M.; Shackleton, C.; Winsborrow, M.; Andreassen, K.; Bjarnadóttir, L. R.

    2017-12-01

    In the past decade hundreds of subglacial lakes have been detected beneath the Antarctic Ice Sheet, and several more beneath the Greenland Ice Sheet. These are important components of the subglacial hydrological system and can influence basal shear stress, with implications for ice sheet dynamics and mass balance, potentially on rapid timescales. Improvements in our understanding of subglacial hydrological systems are therefore important, but challenging due to the inaccessibility of contemporary subglacial environments. Whilst the beds of palaeo-ice sheets are easier to access, few palaeo-subglacial lakes have been identified due to uncertainties in the sedimentological and geomorphological diagnostic criteria. In this study we address these uncertainties, using a suite of sedimentological, geomorphological and modelling approaches to investigate sites of potential palaeo-subglacial lakes in the central Barents Sea. Geomorphological signatures of hydraulic activity in the area include large meltwater channels, tunnel valleys, and several interlinked basins. Modelling efforts indicate the potential for subglacial hydraulic sinks within the area during the early stages of ice retreat since the Last Glacial Maximum. In support of this, sedimentological observations indicate the presence of a dynamic glaciolacustrine depositional environment. Using the combined results of the modelling, geomorphology, and sedimentological analyses, we conclude that palaeo-subglacial lakes are likely to have formed on the northwestern banks of Thor Iversenbanken, central Barents Sea, and suggest that numerous other subglacial lakes may have been present beneath the Barents Sea Ice Sheet. Furthermore, we investigate and refine the existing diagnostic criteria for the identification of palaeo-subglacial lakes.

  12. Synchronisation of sedimentary records using tephra: A postglacial tephrochronological model for the Chilean Lake District

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fontijn, Karen; Rawson, Harriet; Van Daele, Maarten; Moernaut, Jasper; Abarzúa, Ana M.; Heirman, Katrien; Bertrand, Sébastien; Pyle, David M.; Mather, Tamsin A.; De Batist, Marc; Naranjo, Jose-Antonio; Moreno, Hugo

    2016-04-01

    Well-characterised tephra horizons deposited in various sedimentary environments provide a means of synchronising sedimentary archives. The use of tephra as a chronological tool is however still widely underutilised in southern Chile and Argentina. In this study we develop a postglacial tephrochronological model for the Chilean Lake District (ca. 38 to 42°S) by integrating terrestrial and lacustrine records. Tephra deposits preserved in lake sediments record discrete events even if they do not correspond to primary fallout. By combining terrestrial with lacustrine records we obtain the most complete tephrostratigraphic record for the area to date. We present glass geochemical and chronological data for key marker horizons that may be used to synchronise sedimentary archives used for palaeoenvironmental, palaeoclimatological and palaeoseismological purposes. Most volcanoes in the studied segment of the Southern Volcanic Zone, between Llaima and Calbuco, have produced at least one regional marker deposit resulting from a large explosive eruption (magnitude ≥ 4), some of which now have a significantly improved age estimate (e.g., the 10.5 ka Llaima Pumice eruption from Llaima volcano). Others, including several units from Puyehue-Cordón Caulle, are newly described here. We also find tephra related to the Cha1 eruption from Chaitén volcano in lake sediments up to 400 km north from source. Several clear marker horizons are now identified that should help refine age model reconstructions for various sedimentary archives. Our chronological model suggests three distinct phases of eruptive activity impacting the area, with an early-to-mid-Holocene period of relative quiescence. Extending our tephrochronological framework further south into Patagonia will allow a more detailed evaluation of the controls on the occurrence and magnitude of explosive eruptions throughout the postglacial.

  13. Ecosystem modelling of carbon, nutrients and radionuclides in lake Eckarfjaerden, Sweden

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kumblad, L.; Andersson, E.; Wijnbladh, E.; Kautsky, U. [Stockholm Univ., Dept. of Systems Ecology (Sweden)

    2004-07-01

    During the next few years, the Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co (SKB) perform site investigations at two sites in Sweden for a future underground repository of spent nuclear fuel. For the safety assessment of the repository, methods based on systems and landscape ecology was developed to understand the radionuclide flow at the site using site-specific data. In this part of the project a mechanistic mass-balance model for carbon and nutrients between the components of the Lake Eckarfjaerden was developed. The lake has been thoroughly monitored for water chemistry, biota, geo-morphometry and water flows etc. to enable site-specific process-oriented dose modelling. The modelling of carbon and nutrients was based on ecosystem processes such as primary production, respiration and consumption. C-14 was modelled in proportion to the circulation of non-radioactive carbon in the ecosystem, whereas the modelling of other radionuclides included two radionuclide specific mechanisms in addition to the ecological processes. The radionuclide uptake by plants was modelled with an uptake function based on conventional uptake factors related to the primary production rate of the plants. The transfer of radionuclides from plants to animals in the ecosystem was modelled in proportion to the consumption rate of the grazer/predator, the concentration in the plant/prey and a specific radionuclide excretion rate related to the rate of carbon and nutrients excreted. The results were compared with traditional dose assessment models. We believe that this method has a large potential to be used either directly in assessment modelling or to produce site-specific transfer factors for more conventional models, which is especially valuable when future changes of the environment needs to be taken into account. (author)

  14. A diagnostic study of Antarctic fog

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lazzara, Matthew A.

    2008-10-01

    The United States Antarctic Program (USAP) is the largest scientific research program in the Antarctic and requires a considerable aviation operation. Although fog is one of the top three forecast problems related to flights aborted due to weather, it is largely unstudied. The objective of this project is to gain an understanding of fog that affects McMurdo Station, Antarctica and its nearby airfields. This understanding is gained through analyses of surface based weather observations, satellite measurements and numerical weather prediction models. Multi-channel satellite observations indicate that most austral summer fog events are "advective" in nature. This is supported by weather observations from McMurdo Station and nearby airfields where fog occurs at moderate wind speeds, and primarily from the eastward direction. Analyses using both a back trajectory model and mesoscale numerical model are consistent with this finding. The primary source region for fog is found to be from the southeast over the Ross Ice Shelf (72% of the cases studied), while only a minority of cases (23%) reveals a secondary source of fog from the north along the Scott Coast with airflow influences from the East Antarctic Plateau. McMurdo experiences two fog seasons with a primary peak in January and a secondary peak in September. Fog events are often short lived---typically 1 to 3 hours, though some can last up to 30 hours. Fog occurrences over the last 30 years appear to be decreasing. Time series analysis between the observed fog variability and large-scale circulations (e.g., El Nino, Antarctic Oscillation) yielded no correlations, while there is only a limited relationship of fog occurrence to ice concentration in nearby Lewis Bay and McMurdo Sound. Fog is more likely to take place at the nearby airfields rather than at McMurdo Station, which is consistent with the advective nature of the fog.

  15. Ecuadorian antarctic act

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1998-02-01

    To develop research in this continent involves to take communion with earth where the cold pole of the planet is located, the stormiest sea of the world surround it and where the capricious continental and geographical distribution permits the pass of meteorological violent and continuous systems. The Ecuador, in execution of the acquired commitments like Full Member of the System of the Antarctic Treaty, carried out the VII Expedition to the White Continent with an extensive program of scientific investigation in the field of: Sciences of Life, Sciences of the Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, so much in the environment of the Pacific Southeast, the Drake Pass, Bransfield Strait and the nearby ecosystems antarctic to Point Fort William in the Greenwich Island, site where the Ecuadorian station Pedro Vicente Maldonado is located. The scientific articles, result of the fruitful work of national investigator is consigned in this fourth edition. This publication constitutes our contribution to the world in the knowledge, understanding and handling of the marvelous White Continent from the middle of our planet, Ecuador

  16. Basin-scale heterogeneity in Antarctic precipitation and its impact on surface mass variability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Fyke

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Annually averaged precipitation in the form of snow, the dominant term of the Antarctic Ice Sheet surface mass balance, displays large spatial and temporal variability. Here we present an analysis of spatial patterns of regional Antarctic precipitation variability and their impact on integrated Antarctic surface mass balance variability simulated as part of a preindustrial 1800-year global, fully coupled Community Earth System Model simulation. Correlation and composite analyses based on this output allow for a robust exploration of Antarctic precipitation variability. We identify statistically significant relationships between precipitation patterns across Antarctica that are corroborated by climate reanalyses, regional modeling and ice core records. These patterns are driven by variability in large-scale atmospheric moisture transport, which itself is characterized by decadal- to centennial-scale oscillations around the long-term mean. We suggest that this heterogeneity in Antarctic precipitation variability has a dampening effect on overall Antarctic surface mass balance variability, with implications for regulation of Antarctic-sourced sea level variability, detection of an emergent anthropogenic signal in Antarctic mass trends and identification of Antarctic mass loss accelerations.

  17. Modeling glacier beds in the Austrian Alps: How many lakes will form in future?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koehler, Dominik; Geilhausen, Martin; Linsbauer, Andreas

    2014-05-01

    Glacial retreat exposes landscapes with relief characteristics greatly differing from the former ice covered surfaces. If glacial retreat exposes natural basins capable of forming proglacial lakes, then the downstream hydrologic and geomorphic systems in such catchments will be significantly altered due to discharge modifications, sediment trapping, decoupling effects and long term sediment storage (e.g. Geilhausen et al. 2013). Further implications are related to hydropower management, tourism and natural hazards. Consequently, sound knowledge of present day glacier beds ("proglacial zones of tomorrow") and in particular the total number, locations and characteristics of overdeepenings are of importance. For Austria, however, this important information about significant future changes of high alpine regions is yet missing. An interdisciplinary research project is currently in preparation to close this gap. This paper presents results of a pilot study. We used a novel GIS-based approach (GlabTop, cf. Linsbauer et al. 2012) to compute approximate glacier beds in the Austrian Alps. GlabTop ('Glacier bed Topography') is based on an empirical relation between average basal shear stress and elevation range of individual glaciers and makes use of digital elevation models (DEM), glacier outlines and branch lines (i.e. a set of lines covering all important glacier branches). DEMs and glacier outlines were derived from the Austrian glacier inventory (1998) and branch lines were manually digitized. The inventory includes 911 glaciers of which 876 (96%) were considered and 35 were excluded due to size restrictions ( 0.01 km²) with the potential of forming proglacial lakes when glacier retreat reveals the bed. The total area and volume of all overdeepenings is approx. 10 km² and 236 Mio m³ respectively and 33 lakes will be larger than 1 km³. A total glacier volume of 16 ± 5 km³ with an average ice thickness of 36 ± 11 m was calculated for 1998. Comparisons with

  18. Sea-level response to melting of Antarctic ice shelves on multi-centennial timescales with the fast Elementary Thermomechanical Ice Sheet model (f.ETISh v1.0)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pattyn, Frank

    2017-08-01

    The magnitude of the Antarctic ice sheet's contribution to global sea-level rise is dominated by the potential of its marine sectors to become unstable and collapse as a response to ocean (and atmospheric) forcing. This paper presents Antarctic sea-level response to sudden atmospheric and oceanic forcings on multi-centennial timescales with the newly developed fast Elementary Thermomechanical Ice Sheet (f.ETISh) model. The f.ETISh model is a vertically integrated hybrid ice sheet-ice shelf model with vertically integrated thermomechanical coupling, making the model two-dimensional. Its marine boundary is represented by two different flux conditions, coherent with power-law basal sliding and Coulomb basal friction. The model has been compared to existing benchmarks. Modelled Antarctic ice sheet response to forcing is dominated by sub-ice shelf melt and the sensitivity is highly dependent on basal conditions at the grounding line. Coulomb friction in the grounding-line transition zone leads to significantly higher mass loss in both West and East Antarctica on centennial timescales, leading to 1.5 m sea-level rise after 500 years for a limited melt scenario of 10 m a-1 under freely floating ice shelves, up to 6 m for a 50 m a-1 scenario. The higher sensitivity is attributed to higher ice fluxes at the grounding line due to vanishing effective pressure. Removing the ice shelves altogether results in a disintegration of the West Antarctic ice sheet and (partially) marine basins in East Antarctica. After 500 years, this leads to a 5 m and a 16 m sea-level rise for the power-law basal sliding and Coulomb friction conditions at the grounding line, respectively. The latter value agrees with simulations by DeConto and Pollard (2016) over a similar period (but with different forcing and including processes of hydrofracturing and cliff failure). The chosen parametrizations make model results largely independent of spatial resolution so that f.ETISh can potentially be

  19. Evaluating the response of Lake Prespa (SW Balkan) to future climate change projections from a high-resolution model

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Schriek, Tim; Varotsos, Konstantinos V.; Giannakopoulos, Christos

    2017-04-01

    The Mediterranean stands out globally due to its sensitivity to (future) climate change. Projections suggest that the Balkans will experience precipitation and runoff decreases of up to 30% by 2100. However, these projections show large regional spatial variability. Mediterranean lake-wetland systems are particularly threatened by projected climate changes that compound increasingly intensive human impacts (e.g. water extraction, drainage, pollution and dam-building). Protecting the remaining systems is extremely important for supporting global biodiversity. This protection should be based on a clear understanding of individual lake-wetland hydrological responses to future climate changes, which requires fine-resolution projections and a good understanding of the impact of hydro-climate variability on individual lakes. Climate change may directly affect lake level (variability), volume and water temperatures. In turn, these variables influence lake-ecology, habitats and water quality. Land-use intensification and water abstraction multiply these climate-driven changes. To date, there are no projections of future water level and -temperature of individual Mediterranean lakes under future climate scenarios. These are, however, of crucial importance to steer preservation strategies on the relevant catchment-scale. Here we present the first projections of water level and -temperature of the Prespa Lakes covering the period 2071-2100. These lakes are of global significance for biodiversity, and of great regional socio-economic importance as a water resource and tourist attraction. Impact projections are assessed by the Regional Climate Model RCA4 of the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI) driven by the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology global climate model MPI-ESM-LR under two RCP future emissions scenarios, the RCP4.5 and the RCP8.5, with the simulations carried out in the framework of EURO-CORDEX. Temperature, evapo(transpi)ration and

  20. A simulated Antarctic fast ice ecosystem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arrigo, Kevin R.; Kremer, James N.; Sullivan, Cornelius W.

    1993-01-01

    A 2D numerical ecosystem model of Antarctic land fast ice is developed to elucidate the primary production with the Antarctic sea ice zone. The physical component employs atmospheric data to simulate congelation ice growth, initial brine entrapment, desalination, and nutrient flux. The biological component is based on the concept of a maximum temperature-dependent algal growth rate which is reduced by limitations imposed from insufficient light or nutrients, as well as suboptimal salinity. Preliminary simulations indicate that, during a bloom, microalgae are able to maintain their vertical position relative to the lower congelation ice margin and are not incorporated into the crystal matrix as the ice sheet thickens. It is inferred that land fast sea ice contains numerous microhabitats that are functionally distinct based upon the unique set of processes that control microalgal growth and accumulation within each.

  1. Postglacial uplift of the eastern Gulf of Finland-Lake Ladoga region: models and observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amantov, Aleksey; Fjeldskaar, Willy; Amantova, Marina

    2015-04-01

    The eastern Gulf of Finland - Lake Ladoga region - is at the peripheral part of the Fennoscandian post-glacial uplift. We compared different modeling results for this region with observations, including our revision of geomorphological traces of paleo shorelevel. As in many parts of the general Baltic-White Sea bedrock lowland at the margin of the Fennoscandian Shield, the bedrock landscape was modified by glaciers, but it was also the major controlling factor for the history of glacial grows and decays. First-order landforms of this segment are: Lake Ladoga-Lake Ilmen lowland, Lembolovo High of the Karelic Isthmus and Neva-Gulf of Finland lowland. The range of the bedrock topography is close to 350 m. The landforms reflect different glacial behavior during stadials, with fast movement and strong erosion in northern Ladoga, but passive motion and accumulation around Lembolovo High. The differences influenced the ice sheet and deglaciation history. The shore level displacements in this area are slightly different than westwards in the Baltic area; the shoreline tilts are usually lower in southern-central part of the eastern Gulf of Finland-lake Ladoga region. For example, the shoreline tilts at 11 600 BP in the Baltic Ice Lake in the south-east range from 0.55 to 0.31 m/km. The slope of the Ancylus shoreline varies from 0.12 to 0.18 m/km, increasing to almost the double in the north-western area. Similarly, the Littorina shore level is tilted only 0.08 m/km, rising to 0.14 m/km in the north-west. We have used this data in our high resolution modeling involving glacial isostasy, hydro isostasy, sediment isostasy, and gravity field changes. The mopdeling is based on Earth rheology model with a low-viscosity asthenosphere of thickness less than 150 km and viscosity less than 7.0x10**19 Pa s above a mantle of viscosity 10**21 Pa s, and an effective elastic lithosphere thickness of 30-40 km (flexural rigidity 10**24 Nm). The specific uplift features in the area are

  2. Parameterisation of sea and lake ice in numerical weather prediction models of the German Weather Service

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dmitrii Mironov

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available A bulk thermodynamic (no rheology sea-ice parameterisation scheme for use in numerical weather prediction (NWP is presented. The scheme is based on a self-similar parametric representation (assumed shape of the evolving temperature profile within the ice and on the integral heat budget of the ice slab. The scheme carries ordinary differential equations (in time for the ice surface temperature and the ice thickness. The proposed sea-ice scheme is implemented into the NWP models GME (global and COSMO (limited-area of the German Weather Service. In the present operational configuration, the horizontal distribution of the sea ice is governed by the data assimilation scheme, no fractional ice cover within the GME/COSMO grid box is considered, and the effect of snow above the ice is accounted for through an empirical temperature dependence of the ice surface albedo with respect to solar radiation. The lake ice is treated similarly to the sea ice, except that freeze-up and break-up of lakes occurs freely, independent of the data assimilation. The sea and lake ice schemes (the latter is a part of the fresh-water lake parameterisation scheme FLake show a satisfactory performance in GME and COSMO. The ice characteristics are not overly sensitive to the details of the treatment of heat transfer through the ice layer. This justifies the use of a simplified but computationally efficient bulk approach to model the ice thermodynamics in NWP, where the ice surface temperature is a major concern whereas details of the temperature distribution within the ice are of secondary importance. In contrast to the details of the heat transfer through the ice, the cloud cover is of decisive importance for the ice temperature as it controls the radiation energy budget at the ice surface. This is particularly true for winter, when the long-wave radiation dominates the surface energy budget. During summer, the surface energy budget is also sensitive to the grid-box mean ice

  3. Sensitivity analysis of a bio-optical model for Italian lakes focused on Landsat-8, Sentinel-2 and Sentinel-3

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manzo, Ciro; Bresciani, Mariano; Giardino, Claudia; Braga, Federica; Bassani, Cristiana

    2015-04-01

    In this work, a variance-based procedure was applied to study the sensitivity of a Case-2 bio-optical model which simulates the water reflectance of three Italian lakes - Garda, Mantua and Trasimeno - with different trophic conditions by analysing the main effect of single WQPs and their interactions. The water reflectance was simulated according to a four-components model [Brando and Dekker 2003] considering the SIOPs typical of each lake and the spectral characteristics of three optical sensors, on-board of Landsat-8, Sentinel-2 and Sentinel-3, which can be potentially applied for lakes. Lakes Garda, Mantua and Trasimeno were selected as representative of different trophic levels; for these lakes long-term data of in situ measurements on water quality characteristics were also available. The bio-optical analytical model simulated the subsurface irradiance reflectance R(0-, λ) as a function of absorption and backscattering coefficients (a(λ), bb(λ)) given as a sum of the contribution of water and the water quality parameters. The sensitivity indices of water reflectance for three water types/trophic conditions were calculated decomposing output variance (V) in partial variances which represent the share of V that is explained by the bio-optical model inputs [Saltelli et al., 2010]. The results provide important information relating the sensitivity of the new generation sensors to different trophic statuses, and in particular confirmed that Sentinel-3 water reflectance is sensitive to WQPs in all the trophic conditions investigated.

  4. Regional Climate Models as a Tool for Assessing Changes in the Laurentian Great Lakes Net Basin Supply

    Science.gov (United States)

    Music, B.; Mailhot, E.; Nadeau, D.; Irambona, C.; Frigon, A.

    2017-12-01

    Over the last decades, there has been growing concern about the effects of climate change on the Great Lakes water supply. Most of the modelling studies focusing on the Laurentian Great Lakes do not allow two-way exchanges of water and energy between the atmosphere and the underlying surface, and therefore do not account for important feedback mechanisms. Moreover, energy budget constraint at the land surface is not usually taken into account. To address this issue, several recent climate change studies used high resolution Regional Climate Models (RCMs) for evaluating changes in the hydrological regime of the Great Lakes. As RCMs operate on the concept of water and energy conservation, an internal consistency of the simulated energy and water budget components is assured. In this study we explore several recently generated Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulations to investigate the Great Lakes' Net Basin Supply (NBS) in a changing climate. These include simulations of the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5) supplemented by simulations from several others RCMs participating to the North American CORDEX project (CORDEX-NA). The analysis focuses on the NBS extreme values under nonstationary conditions. The results are expected to provide useful information to the industries in the Great Lakes that all need to include accurate climate change information in their long-term strategy plans to better anticipate impacts of low and/or high water levels.

  5. Introduction. Antarctic ecology: from genes to ecosystems. Part 2. Evolution, diversity and functional ecology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogers, Alex D; Murphy, Eugene J; Johnston, Nadine M; Clarke, Andrew

    2007-12-29

    The Antarctic biota has evolved over the last 100 million years in increasingly isolated and cold conditions. As a result, Antarctic species, from micro-organisms to vertebrates, have adapted to life at extremely low temperatures, including changes in the genome, physiology and ecological traits such as life history. Coupled with cycles of glaciation that have promoted speciation in the Antarctic, this has led to a unique biota in terms of biogeography, patterns of species distribution and endemism. Specialization in the Antarctic biota has led to trade-offs in many ecologically important functions and Antarctic species may have a limited capacity to adapt to present climate change. These include the direct effects of changes in environmental parameters and indirect effects of increased competition and predation resulting from altered life histories of Antarctic species and the impacts of invasive species. Ultimately, climate change may alter the responses of Antarctic ecosystems to harvesting from humans. The unique adaptations of Antarctic species mean that they provide unique models of molecular evolution in natural populations. The simplicity of Antarctic communities, especially from terrestrial systems, makes them ideal to investigate the ecological implications of climate change, which are difficult to identify in more complex systems.

  6. Modeling the lake eutrophication stochastic ecosystem and the research of its stability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Bo; Qi, Qianqian

    2018-03-20

    In the reality, the lake system will be disturbed by stochastic factors including the external and internal factors. By adding the additive noise and the multiplicative noise to the right-hand sides of the model equation, the additive stochastic model and the multiplicative stochastic model are established respectively in order to reduce model errors induced by the absence of some physical processes. For both the two kinds of stochastic ecosystems, the authors studied the bifurcation characteristics with the FPK equation and the Lyapunov exponent method based on the Stratonovich-Khasminiskii stochastic average principle. Results show that, for the additive stochastic model, when control parameter (i.e, nutrient loading rate) falls into the interval [0.388644, 0.66003825], there exists bistability for the ecosystem and the additive noise intensities cannot make the bifurcation point drift. In the region of the bistability, the external stochastic disturbance which is one of the main triggers causing the lake eutrophication, may make the ecosystem unstable and induce a transition. When control parameter (nutrient loading rate) falls into the interval (0,  0.388644) and (0.66003825,  1.0), there only exists a stable equilibrium state and the additive noise intensity couldn't change it. For the multiplicative stochastic model, there exists more complex bifurcation performance and the multiplicative ecosystem will be broken by the multiplicative noise. Also, the multiplicative noise could reduce the extent of the bistable region, ultimately, the bistable region vanishes for sufficiently large noise. What's more, both the nutrient loading rate and the multiplicative noise will make the ecosystem have a regime shift. On the other hand, for the two kinds of stochastic ecosystems, the authors also discussed the evolution of the ecological variable in detail by using the Four-stage Runge-Kutta method of strong order γ=1.5. The numerical method was found to be

  7. Seasonal patterns in growth, blood consumption, and effects on hosts by parasitic-phase sea lampreys in the Great Lakes: an individual-based model approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madenjian, Charles P.; Cochran, Philip A.; Bergstedt, Roger A.

    2003-01-01

    An individual-based model (IBM) was developed for sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus) populations in the Laurentian Great Lakes. The IBM was then calibrated to observed growth, by season, for sea lampreys in northern Lake Huron under two different water temperature regimes: a regime experienced by Seneca-strain lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) and a regime experienced by Marquettestrain lake trout. Modeling results indicated that seasonal blood consumption under the Seneca regime was very similar to that under the Marquette regime. Simulated mortality of lake trout directly due to blood removal by sea lampreys occurred at nearly twice the rate during August and September under the Marquette regime than under the Seneca regime. However, cumulative sea lamprey-induced mortality on lake trout over the entire duration of the sea lamprey's parasitic phase was only 7% higher for the Marquette regime compared with the Seneca regime. Thus, these modeling results indicated that the strain composition of the host (lake trout) population was not important in determining total number of lake trout deaths or total blood consumption attributable to the sea lamprey population, given the sea lamprey growth pattern. Regardless of water temperature regime, both blood consumption rate by sea lampreys and rate of sea lamprey-induced mortality on lake trout peaked in late October. Elevated blood consumption in late October appeared to be unrelated to changes in water temperature. The IBM approach should prove useful in optimizing control of sea lampreys in the Laurentian Great Lakes.

  8. Modelling glacier-bed overdeepenings and possible future lakes for the glaciers in the Himalaya-Karakoram region

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Linsbauer, A.; Frey, H.; Haeberli, W.

    2016-01-01

    retreat may fill with water and form new lakes. In this study, the bed overdeepenings for ∼28000 glaciers (40 775km2) of the Himalaya-Karakoram region are modelled using GlabTop2 (Glacier Bed Topography model version 2), in which ice thickness is inferred from surface slope by parameterizing basal shear...

  9. Western Lake Erie Basin: Soft-data-constrained, NHDPlus resolution watershed modeling and exploration of applicable conservation scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Complex watershed simulation models are powerful tools that can help scientists and policy-makers address challenging topics, such as land use management and water security. In the Western Lake Erie Basin (WLEB), complex hydrological models have been applied at various scales to help describe relat...

  10. Evaluation of the lake model FLake over a coastal lagoon during the THAUMEX field campaign

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patrick Le Moigne

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available The THAUMEX measurement campaign, carried out during the summer of 2011 in Thau, a coastal lagoon in southern France, focused on episodes of marine breezes. During the campaign, three intensive observation periods (IOPs were conducted and a large amount of data were collected. Subsequently, standalone modelling using the FLake lake model was used, first to assess the surface temperature and the surface energy balance, and second to determine the energy budget of the water column at the measurement site. Surface fluxes were validated against in situ measurements, and it was determined that heat exchanges are dominated by evaporation. We also demonstrated that the model was sensitive to the light extinction coefficient at Thau, due to its shallowness and clarity nature. A heat balance was calculated, and the inclusion of a radiative temperature has improved it, especially by reducing the nocturnal evaporation. The FLake lake model was then evaluated in three-dimensional numerical simulations performed with the Meso-NH mesoscale model, in order to assess the changing structure of the boundary layer above the lagoon during the IOPs more accurately. We highlighted the first time ever when Meso-NH and FLake were coupled and proved the ability of the coupled system to forecast a complex phenomenon but also the importance of the use of the FLake model was pointed out. We demonstrated the impact of the lagoon and more precisely the Lido, a sandy strip of land between the lagoon and the Mediterranean Sea, on the vertical distribution of turbulent kinetic energy, evidence of the turbulence induced by the breeze. This study showed the complementarities between standalone and coupled simulations.

  11. Investigating and Modelling Effects of Climatically and Hydrologically Indicators on the Urmia Lake Coastline Changes Using Time Series Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmadijamal, M.; Hasanlou, M.

    2017-09-01

    Study of hydrological parameters of lakes and examine the variation of water level to operate management on water resources are important. The purpose of this study is to investigate and model the Urmia Lake water level changes due to changes in climatically and hydrological indicators that affects in the process of level variation and area of this lake. For this purpose, Landsat satellite images, hydrological data, the daily precipitation, the daily surface evaporation and the daily discharge in total of the lake basin during the period of 2010-2016 have been used. Based on time-series analysis that is conducted on individual data independently with same procedure, to model variation of Urmia Lake level, we used polynomial regression technique and combined polynomial with periodic behavior. In the first scenario, we fit a multivariate linear polynomial to our datasets and determining RMSE, NRSME and R² value. We found that fourth degree polynomial can better fit to our datasets with lowest RMSE value about 9 cm. In the second scenario, we combine polynomial with periodic behavior for modeling. The second scenario has superiority comparing to the first one, by RMSE value about 3 cm.

  12. Contributions to Antarctic research II

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Elliot, David H

    1991-01-01

    Contents: The Antarctic research series: statement of objectives - Pedogenic linkages between the cold deserts of Antarctica and the polar deserts - Ablation rates of the ice fields in the vicinity of the Allan Hills, Victoria Land...

  13. Images of Antarctic Ice Shelves

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Recent changes in the extent and stability of ice shelves in the Antarctic Peninsula prompted NSIDC to begin a monitoring program using data from the AVHRR Polar 1...

  14. Increased West Antarctic and unchanged East Antarctic ice discharge over the last 7 years

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gardner, Alex S.; Moholdt, Geir; Scambos, Ted; Fahnstock, Mark; Ligtenberg, Stefan; van den Broeke, Michiel; Nilsson, Johan

    2018-02-01

    Ice discharge from large ice sheets plays a direct role in determining rates of sea-level rise. We map present-day Antarctic-wide surface velocities using Landsat 7 and 8 imagery spanning 2013-2015 and compare to earlier estimates derived from synthetic aperture radar, revealing heterogeneous changes in ice flow since ˜ 2008. The new mapping provides complete coastal and inland coverage of ice velocity north of 82.4° S with a mean error of the daylight period. Using an optimized flux gate, ice discharge from Antarctica is 1929 ± 40 Gigatons per year (Gt yr-1) in 2015, an increase of 36 ± 15 Gt yr-1 from the time of the radar mapping. Flow accelerations across the grounding lines of West Antarctica's Amundsen Sea Embayment, Getz Ice Shelf and Marguerite Bay on the western Antarctic Peninsula, account for 88 % of this increase. In contrast, glaciers draining the East Antarctic Ice Sheet have been remarkably constant over the period of observation. Including modeled rates of snow accumulation and basal melt, the Antarctic ice sheet lost ice at an average rate of 183 ± 94 Gt yr-1 between 2008 and 2015. The modest increase in ice discharge over the past 7 years is contrasted by high rates of ice sheet mass loss and distinct spatial patters of elevation lowering. The West Antarctic Ice Sheet is experiencing high rates of mass loss and displays distinct patterns of elevation lowering that point to a dynamic imbalance. We find modest increase in ice discharge over the past 7 years, which suggests that the recent pattern of mass loss in Antarctica is part of a longer-term phase of enhanced glacier flow initiated in the decades leading up to the first continent-wide radar mapping of ice flow.

  15. Paleoenvironmental inference models from sediment diatom assemblages in Baffin Island lakes (Nunavut, Canada) and reconstruction of summer water temperature

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Joynt, E. H. III; Wolfe, A. P. [Colorado Univ., Inst. of Arctic and Alpine Research, Boulder, CO (United States)

    2001-06-01

    Lake sediments are attractive repositories for paleoclimate proxy data because they are temporally continuous, undisturbed and datable. It is particularly true of lakes which are ubiquitous throughout the Arctic regions, enabling dense spatial coverage of sampling sites. In more recent times diatoms have been applied to a a variety of paleoenvironmental questions. However, these studies have been of limited usefulness because they lack a regional training set that would facilitate making quantitative paleoenvironmental inferences. This article provides this inferential tool, together with an example of its application. Conductivity, pH, summer lake water temperature, and mean annual air temperature have been identified as the significant controls over diatom assemblages from the surface sediments of 61 lakes on Baffin Island. Using weighted-averaging regression and calibration, predictive models for these parameters have been developed. Results show that the summer lake water temperature model provides realistic reconstructions when compared with other paleoenvironmental records. Over the past 5000 years the amplitude of reconstructed summer lake water temperature was found to be on the order of 4 degrees C, expressed primarily as progressive neoglacial cooling culminating in the Little Ice Age. Diatom-inferred summer water temperatures have increased by about 2 degrees C in the past 150 years, which is also in agreement with independent paleoclimatic reconstructions. The data obtained in this study complements similar efforts from the western Canadian Arctic and the northern reaches of Scandinavia, however, this is the first training set developed for lakes situated entirely north of the tree line. As such, it extends the applicability of diatoms for paleotemperature reconstructions well into the Arctic tundra biome. 45 refs., 1 tab., 10 figs., 1 appendix.

  16. Modeling the transport and inactivation of E. coli and enterococci in the near-shore region of Lake Michigan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, L.; Phanikumar, M.S.; Molloy, S.L.; Whitman, R.L.; Shively, D.A.; Nevers, M.B.; Schwab, D.J.; Rose, J.B.

    2006-01-01

    To investigate the transport and fate of fecal pollution at Great Lakes beaches and the health risks associated with swimming, the near-shore waters of Lake Michigan and two tributaries discharging into it were examined for bacterial indicators of human fecal pollution. The enterococcus human fecal pollution marker, which targets a putative virulence factorthe enterococcal surface protein (esp) in Enterococcus faecium, was detected in 2/28 samples (7%) in the tributaries draining into Lake Michigan and in 6/30 samples (20%) in Lake Michigan beaches. This was indicative of human fecal pollution being transported in the tributaries and occurrence at Lake Michigan beaches. To understand the relative importance of different processes influencing pollution transport and inactivation, a finite-element model of surf-zone hydrodynamics (coupled with models for temperature, E. coli and enterococci) was used. Enterococci appear to survive longer than E. coli, which was described using an overall first-order inactivation coefficient in the range 0.5−2.0 per day. Our analysis suggests that the majority of fecal indicator bacteria variation can be explained based on loadings from the tributaries. Sunlight is a major contributor to inactivation in the surf-zone and the formulation based on sunlight, temperature and sedimentation is preferred over the first-order inactivation formulation.

  17. Modeling of temporal variation of very low frequency radio waves over long paths as observed from Indian Antarctic stations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sasmal, Sudipta; Basak, Tamal; Chakraborty, Suman; Palit, Sourav; Chakrabarti, Sandip K.

    2017-07-01

    Characteristics of very low frequency (VLF) signal depends on solar illumination across the propagation path. For a long path, solar zenith angle varies widely over the path and this has a significant influence on the propagation characteristics. To study the effect, Indian Centre for Space Physics participated in the 27th and 35th Scientific Expedition to Antarctica. VLF signals transmitted from the transmitters, namely, VTX (18.2 kHz), Vijayanarayanam, India, and NWC (19.8 kHz), North West Cape, Australia, were recorded simultaneously at Indian permanent stations Maitri and Bharati having respective geographic coordinates 70.75°S, 11.67°E, and 69.4°S, 76.17°E. A very stable diurnal variation of the signal has been obtained from both the stations. We reproduced the signal variations of VLF signal using solar zenith angle model coupled with long wavelength propagation capability (LWPC) code. We divided the whole path into several segments and computed the solar zenith angle (χ) profile. We assumed a linear relationship between the Wait's exponential model parameters effective reflection height (h'), steepness parameter (β), and solar zenith angle. The h' and β values were later used in the LWPC code to obtain the VLF signal amplitude at a particular time. The same procedure was repeated to obtain the whole day signal. Nature of the whole day signal variation from the theoretical modeling is also found to match with our observation to some extent.

  18. Dynamics Change of Honghu Lake's Water Surface Area and Its Driving Force Analysis Based on Remote Sensing Technique and TOPMODEL model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wen, X; Cao, B; Shen, S; Hu, D; Tang, X

    2014-01-01

    Honghu Lake is the largest freshwater lake in the Hubei Province of China. This paper introduces a remote sensing approach to monitor the lake's water surface area dynamics over the last 40 years by using multi-temporal remote sensing imagery including Landsat and HJ-1. Meanwhile, the daily precipitation and evaporation data provided by Honghu meteorological station since 1970s were also collected and used to analyze the influence of climate change factors. The typical situation for precipitation was selected as an input into the TOPMODEL model to simulate the hydrological process in Honghu Lake. The simulation result with the water surface area extracted from remote sensing imagery was analyzed. This experiment shows the precipitation and timing of precipitation effects changes in the lake with remote sensing data and it showed the potential of using TOPMODEL model to analyze the combined hydrological process in Honghu Lake

  19. DNA electrophoresis in confined, periodic geometries: a new lakes-straits model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laachi, Nabil; Dorfman, Kevin D

    2010-12-21

    We present a method to study the dynamics of long DNA molecules inside a cubic array of confining spheres, connected through narrow openings. Our method is based on the coarse-grained, lakes-straits model of Zimm and is therefore much faster than Brownian dynamics simulations. In contrast to Zimm's approach, our method uses a standard stochastic kinetic simulation to account for the mass transfer through the narrow straits and the formation of new lakes. The different rates, or propensities, of the reactions are obtained using first-passage time statistics and a Monte Carlo sampling to compute the total free energy of the chain. The total free energy takes into account the self-avoiding nature of the chain as well as confinement effects from the impenetrable spheres. The mobilities of various chains agree with biased reptation theory at low and high fields. At moderate fields, confinement effects lead to a new regime of reptation where the mobility is a linear function of molecular weight and the dispersion is minimal.

  20. Contrasting Arctic and Antarctic atmospheric responses to future sea-ice loss

    Science.gov (United States)

    England, M.; Polvani, L. M.; Sun, L.

    2017-12-01

    By the end of this century, the annual mean Antarctic sea ice area is projected to decline by over a third, an amount similar to that in the Arctic, but the effect of Antarctic sea ice loss on the atmosphere remains largely unexplored. Using the Community Earth Systems Model (CESM) Whole Atmosphere Coupled Climate Model (WACCM), we investigate the effect of future Antarctic sea ice loss, and contrast it with its Arctic counterpart. This is accomplished by analyzing integrations of the model with historic and future sea ice levels, using the RCP8.5 scenario. This allows us to disentangle the effect of future sea ice loss on the atmosphere from other aspects of the coupled system. We find that both Antarctic and Arctic sea ice loss act to shift the tropospheric jet equatorwards, counteracting the poleward shift due to increases in greenhouse gases. Although the total forcing to the atmosphere is similar in both hemispheres, the response to Arctic sea ice loss is larger in amplitude and but more seasonally varying, while the response in the Antarctic persists throughout the year but with a smaller amplitude. Furthermore, the atmospheric temperature response over the Antarctic is trapped closer to the surface than in the Arctic, and perhaps surprisingly, we find that the surface temperature response to Antarctic sea ice loss is unable to penetrate the Antarctic continent.

  1. Organic carbon in Antarctic snow: spatial trends and possible sources

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Antony, R.; Mahalinganathan, K.; Thamban, M.; Nair, S.

    ,J.;vonGlasgow,R.;Weller,R.;Wolff,E.;Zhu,T.Anoverviewof snow photochemistry: Evidence, mechanisms and impacts. Atmos. Chem. Phys. 2007, 7, 4329–4373. (6) Priscu, J. C.; et al. Antarctic subglacial water: Origin, evolution, and ecology. In Polar Lakes and Rivers; Vincent, W. F., Laybourn-Parry, J., Eds...) Jaenicke, R. Atmospheric aerosols and global climate. J. Aerosol Sci. 1980, 11, 577–588. (26) Hodson, A.; Anesio, A. M.; Tranter, M.; Fountain, A.; Osborn, M.; Priscu, J.; Laybourn-Parry, J.; Sattler, B. Glacial ecosystems. Ecol. Monogr. 2008, 78 (1), 41...

  2. Implementation of local grid refinement (LGR) for the Lake Michigan Basin regional groundwater-flow model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoard, C.J.

    2010-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey is evaluating water availability and use within the Great Lakes Basin. This is a pilot effort to develop new techniques and methods to aid in the assessment of water availability. As part of the pilot program, a regional groundwater-flow model for the Lake Michigan Basin was developed using SEAWAT-2000. The regional model was used as a framework for assessing local-scale water availability through grid-refinement techniques. Two grid-refinement techniques, telescopic mesh refinement and local grid refinement, were used to illustrate the capability of the regional model to evaluate local-scale problems. An intermediate model was developed in central Michigan spanning an area of 454 square miles (mi2) using telescopic mesh refinement. Within the intermediate model, a smaller local model covering an area of 21.7 mi2 was developed and simulated using local grid refinement. Recharge was distributed in space and time using a daily output from a modified Thornthwaite-Mather soil-water-balance method. The soil-water-balance method derived recharge estimates from temperature and precipitation data output from an atmosphere-ocean coupled general-circulation model. The particular atmosphere-ocean coupled general-circulation model used, simulated climate change caused by high global greenhouse-gas emissions to the atmosphere. The surface-water network simulated in the regional model was refined and simulated using a streamflow-routing package for MODFLOW. The refined models were used to demonstrate streamflow depletion and potential climate change using five scenarios. The streamflow-depletion scenarios include (1) natural conditions (no pumping), (2) a pumping well near a stream; the well is screened in surficial glacial deposits, (3) a pumping well near a stream; the well is screened in deeper glacial deposits, and (4) a pumping well near a stream; the well is open to a deep bedrock aquifer. Results indicated that a range of 59 to 50 percent of the

  3. A Deterministic Model for Predicting Hourly Dissolved Oxygen Change: Development and Application to a Shallow Eutrophic Lake

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhen Xu

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Predicting dissolved oxygen (DO change at a high frequency in water bodies is useful for water quality management. In this study, we developed a deterministic model that can predict hourly DO change in a water body with high frequency weather parameters. The study was conducted during August 2008–July 2009 in a eutrophic shallow lake in Louisiana, USA. An environment monitoring buoy was deployed to record DO, water temperature and chlorophyll-a concentration at 15-min intervals, and hourly weather data including air temperature, precipitation, wind speed, relative humidity, and solar radiation were gathered from a nearby weather station. These data formed a foundation for developing a DO model that predicts rapid change of source and sink components including photosynthesis, re-aeration, respiration, and oxygen consumption by sediments. We then applied the model to a studied shallow lake that is widely representative of lake water conditions in the subtropical southern United States. Overall, the model successfully simulated high-time fluctuation of DO in the studied lake, showing good predictability for extreme algal bloom events. However, a knowledge gap still exists in accurately quantifying oxygen source produced by photosynthesis in high frequency DO modeling.

  4. Ocean processes at the Antarctic continental slope.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heywood, Karen J; Schmidtko, Sunke; Heuzé, Céline; Kaiser, Jan; Jickells, Timothy D; Queste, Bastien Y; Stevens, David P; Wadley, Martin; Thompson, Andrew F; Fielding, Sophie; Guihen, Damien; Creed, Elizabeth; Ridley, Jeff K; Smith, Walker

    2014-07-13

    The Antarctic continental shelves and slopes occupy relatively small areas, but, nevertheless, are important for global climate, biogeochemical cycling and ecosystem functioning. Processes of water mass transformation through sea ice formation/melting and ocean-atmosphere interaction are key to the formation of deep and bottom waters as well as determining the heat flux beneath ice shelves. Climate models, however, struggle to capture these physical processes and are unable to reproduce water mass properties of the region. Dynamics at the continental slope are key for correctly modelling climate, yet their small spatial scale presents challenges both for ocean modelling and for observational studies. Cross-slope exchange processes are also vital for the flux of nutrients such as iron from the continental shelf into the mixed layer of the Southern Ocean. An iron-cycling model embedded in an eddy-permitting ocean model reveals the importance of sedimentary iron in fertilizing parts of the Southern Ocean. Ocean gliders play a key role in improving our ability to observe and understand these small-scale processes at the continental shelf break. The Gliders: Excellent New Tools for Observing the Ocean (GENTOO) project deployed three Seagliders for up to two months in early 2012 to sample the water to the east of the Antarctic Peninsula in unprecedented temporal and spatial detail. The glider data resolve small-scale exchange processes across the shelf-break front (the Antarctic Slope Front) and the front's biogeochemical signature. GENTOO demonstrated the capability of ocean gliders to play a key role in a future multi-disciplinary Southern Ocean observing system.

  5. Reconstructing paleo-precipitation amounts using a terrestrial hydrologic model: Lake Titicaca and the Salar de Uyuni, Peru and Bolivia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nunnery, J. A.; Baker, P. A.; Coe, M. T.; Fritz, S. C.

    2010-12-01

    The Peruvian/Bolivian Altiplano has provided many information-rich records bearing on the history of the South American summer monsoon (SASM), a large-scale circulation system that is responsible for much of the precipitation over the Amazon basin and the southern tropics and subtropics. Examples of these paleoclimate time series include long, drill core records from Lake Titicaca (extending back to ca. 400 Ka, Fritz et al., 2007), the long drill core record from Salar de Uyuni (> 250 Ka, Baker et al., 2001; Fritz et al., 2004), paleo-lake level records from the Salar de Uyuni (e.g. Bills et al., 2004; Placzek et al, 2006); drill core records from the Rio Desaguadero valley (Rigsby et al., 2003), and ice core records from Quelccaya, Illimani, and Sajama (Thompson et al., 2000; Ramirez et al., 2003). Several previous studies using energy and water balance models have been applied to these records in attempts to provide quantitative constraints on paleo-temperature and paleo-precipitation (e.g. Kessler, 1984; Hastenrath and Kutzbach, 1985; Cross et al, 2001; Rowe and Dunbar, 2004; Arnold, 2002; Blodgett et al., 1997). For example, Blodgett et al. concluded that high paleolake stands in the Bolivian Altiplano, dated at ca. 16,000 cal. Yr BP (Bills et al., 1994) required precipitation 20% higher than modern at temperatures 5°C colder than modern. However, their model did not take into account the major overflow from Lake Titicaca. Using the THMB hydrologic model, we show that overflow from Lake Titicaca is necessary to produce and sustain large lakes in the Salar de Uyuni basin. This hydrological connection (via the Rio Desaguadero) between the northern and southern Altiplano likely was only established about 60,000 years ago. Prior to that, there were no sustained, large and deep paleolakes on the southern Altiplano. Rather, drill core evidence indicates a very long sequence of shallow, hypersaline lakes and playas.

  6. Environmental contamination in Antarctic ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bargagli, R

    2008-08-01

    Although the remote continent of Antarctica is perceived as the symbol of the last great wilderness, the human presence in the Southern Ocean and the continent began in the early 1900s for hunting, fishing and exploration, and many invasive plant and animal species have been deliberately introduced in several sub-Antarctic islands. Over the last 50 years, the development of research and tourism have locally affected terrestrial and marine coastal ecosystems through fuel combustion (for transportation and energy production), accidental oil spills, waste incineration and sewage. Although natural "barriers" such as oceanic and atmospheric circulation protect Antarctica from lower latitude water and air masses, available data on concentrations of metals, pesticides and other persistent pollutants in air, snow, mosses, lichens and marine organisms show that most persistent contaminants in the Antarctic environment are transported from other continents in the Southern Hemisphere. At present, levels of most contaminants in Antarctic organisms are lower than those in related species from other remote regions, except for the natural accumulation of Cd and Hg in several marine organisms and especially in albatrosses and petrels. The concentrations of organic pollutants in the eggs of an opportunistic top predator such as the south polar skua are close to those that may cause adverse health effects. Population growth and industrial development in several countries of the Southern Hemisphere are changing the global pattern of persistent anthropogenic contaminants and new classes of chemicals have already been detected in the Antarctic environment. Although the Protocol on Environmental Protection to the Antarctic Treaty provides strict guidelines for the protection of the Antarctic environment and establishes obligations for all human activity in the continent and the Southern Ocean, global warming, population growth and industrial development in countries of the Southern

  7. Integrated ecological and chemical food web accumulation modeling explains PAH temporal trends during regime shifts in a shallow lake.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kong, Xiangzhen; He, Wei; Qin, Ning; Liu, Wenxiu; Yang, Bin; Yang, Chen; Xu, Fuliu; Mooij, Wolf M; Koelmans, Albert A

    2017-08-01

    Shallow lakes can switch suddenly from a turbid situation with high concentrations of phytoplankton and other suspended solids to a vegetated state with clear water, and vice versa. These alternative stable states may have a substantial impact on the fate of hydrophobic organic compounds (HOCs). Models that are fit to simulate impacts from these complex interactions are scarce. We developed a contaminant fate model which is linked to an ecosystem model (PCLake) for shallow lakes. This integrated model was successful in simulating long-term dynamics (1953-2012) of representative polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in the main biotic and abiotic components in a large shallow lake (Chaohu in China), which has undergone regime shifts in this period. Historical records from sediment cores were used to evaluate the model. The model revealed that regime shifts in shallow lakes had a strong impact on the fate of less hydrophobic compounds due to the large storage capacity of macrophytes, which accumulated up to 55.6% of phenanthrene in the clear state. The abrupt disappearance of macrophytes after the regime shift resulted in a sudden change in phenanthrene distribution, as the sediment became the major sink. For more hydrophobic compounds such as benzo(a)pyrene, the modeled impact of the regime shift was negligible for the whole environment, yet large for biotic compartments. This study is the first to provide a full mechanistic analysis of the impact of regime shifts on the fate of PAHs in a real lake ecosystem. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Antarctic climate change and the environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-11-01

    This volume provides a comprehensive, up-to-date account of how the physical and biological : environment of the Antarctic continent and Southern Ocean has changed from Deep Time until : the present day. It also considers how the Antarctic environmen...

  9. Partial least squares for efficient models of fecal indicator bacteria on Great Lakes beaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brooks, Wesley R.; Fienen, Michael N.; Corsi, Steven R.

    2013-01-01

    At public beaches, it is now common to mitigate the impact of water-borne pathogens by posting a swimmer's advisory when the concentration of fecal indicator bacteria (FIB) exceeds an action threshold. Since culturing the bacteria delays public notification when dangerous conditions exist, regression models are sometimes used to predict the FIB concentration based on readily-available environmental measurements. It is hard to know which environmental parameters are relevant to predicting FIB concentration, and the parameters are usually correlated, which can hurt the predictive power of a regression model. Here the method of partial least squares (PLS) is introduced to automate the regression modeling process. Model selection is reduced to the process of setting a tuning parameter to control the decision threshold that separates predicted exceedances of the standard from predicted non-exceedances. The method is validated by application to four Great Lakes beaches during the summer of 2010. Performance of the PLS models compares favorably to that of the existing state-of-the-art regression models at these four sites.

  10. Mesoscale spiral vortex embedded within a Lake Michigan snow squall band - High resolution satellite observations and numerical model simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lyons, Walter A.; Keen, Cecil S.; Hjelmfelt, Mark; Pease, Steven R.

    1988-01-01

    It is known that Great Lakes snow squall convection occurs in a variety of different modes depending on various factors such as air-water temperature contrast, boundary-layer wind shear, and geostrophic wind direction. An exceptional and often neglected source of data for mesoscale cloud studies is the ultrahigh resolution multispectral data produced by Landsat satellites. On October 19, 1972, a clearly defined spiral vortex was noted in a Landsat-1 image near the southern end of Lake Michigan during an exceptionally early cold air outbreak over a still very warm lake. In a numerical simulation using a three-dimensional Eulerian hydrostatic primitive equation mesoscale model with an initially uniform wind field, a definite analog to the observed vortex was generated. This suggests that intense surface heating can be a principal cause in the development of a low-level mesoscale vortex.

  11. Hydrologic and Water-Quality Characterization and Modeling of the Onondaga Lake Basin, Onondaga County, New York

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coon, William F.; Reddy, James E.

    2008-01-01

    Onondaga Lake in Onondaga County, New York, has been identified as one of the Nation?s most contaminated lakes as a result of industrial and sanitary-sewer discharges and stormwater nonpoint sources, and has received priority cleanup status under the national Water Resources Development Act of 1990. A basin-scale precipitation-runoff model of the Onondaga Lake basin was identified as a desirable water-resources management tool to better understand the processes responsible for the generation of loads of sediment and nutrients that are transported to Onondaga Lake. During 2003?07, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) developed a model based on the computer program, Hydrological Simulation Program?FORTRAN (HSPF), which simulated overland flow to, and streamflow in, the major tributaries of Onondaga Lake, and loads of sediment, phosphorus, and nitrogen transported to the lake. The simulation period extends from October 1997 through September 2003. The Onondaga Lake basin was divided into 107 subbasins and within these subbasins, the land area was apportioned among 19 pervious and impervious land types on the basis of land use and land cover, hydrologic soil group (HSG), and aspect. Precipitation data were available from three sources as input to the model. The model simulated streamflow, water temperature, concentrations of dissolved oxygen, and concentrations and loads of sediment, orthophosphate, total phosphorus, nitrate, ammonia, and organic nitrogen in the four major tributaries to Onondaga Lake?Onondaga Creek, Harbor Brook, Ley Creek, and Ninemile Creek. Simulated flows were calibrated to data from nine USGS streamflow-monitoring sites; simulated nutrient concentrations and loads were calibrated to data collected at six of the nine streamflow-monitoring sites. Water-quality samples were collected, processed, and analyzed by personnel from the Onondaga County Department of Water Environment Protection. Several time series of flow, and sediment and nutrient loads

  12. Water-quality models to assess algal community dynamics, water quality, and fish habitat suitability for two agricultural land-use dominated lakes in Minnesota, 2014

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Erik A.; Kiesling, Richard L.; Ziegeweid, Jeffrey R.

    2017-07-20

    Fish habitat can degrade in many lakes due to summer blue-green algal blooms. Predictive models are needed to better manage and mitigate loss of fish habitat due to these changes. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources, developed predictive water-quality models for two agricultural land-use dominated lakes in Minnesota—Madison Lake and Pearl Lake, which are part of Minnesota’s sentinel lakes monitoring program—to assess algal community dynamics, water quality, and fish habitat suitability of these two lakes under recent (2014) meteorological conditions. The interaction of basin processes to these two lakes, through the delivery of nutrient loads, were simulated using CE-QUAL-W2, a carbon-based, laterally averaged, two-dimensional water-quality model that predicts distribution of temperature and oxygen from interactions between nutrient cycling, primary production, and trophic dynamics.The CE-QUAL-W2 models successfully predicted water temperature and dissolved oxygen on the basis of the two metrics of mean absolute error and root mean square error. For Madison Lake, the mean absolute error and root mean square error were 0.53 and 0.68 degree Celsius, respectively, for the vertical temperature profile comparisons; for Pearl Lake, the mean absolute error and root mean square error were 0.71 and 0.95 degree Celsius, respectively, for the vertical temperature profile comparisons. Temperature and dissolved oxygen were key metrics for calibration targets. These calibrated lake models also simulated algal community dynamics and water quality. The model simulations presented potential explanations for persistently large total phosphorus concentrations in Madison Lake, key differences in nutrient concentrations between these lakes, and summer blue-green algal bloom persistence.Fish habitat suitability simulations for cool-water and warm-water fish indicated that, in general, both lakes contained a large

  13. Hydrological regulation drives regime shifts: evidence from paleolimnology and ecosystem modeling of a large shallow Chinese lake.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kong, Xiangzhen; He, Qishuang; Yang, Bin; He, Wei; Xu, Fuliu; Janssen, Annette B G; Kuiper, Jan J; van Gerven, Luuk P A; Qin, Ning; Jiang, Yujiao; Liu, Wenxiu; Yang, Chen; Bai, Zelin; Zhang, Min; Kong, Fanxiang; Janse, Jan H; Mooij, Wolf M

    2017-02-01

    Quantitative evidence of sudden shifts in ecological structure and function in large shallow lakes is rare, even though they provide essential benefits to society. Such 'regime shifts' can be driven by human activities which degrade ecological stability including water level control (WLC) and nutrient loading. Interactions between WLC and nutrient loading on the long-term dynamics of shallow lake ecosystems are, however, often overlooked and largely underestimated, which has hampered the effectiveness of lake management. Here, we focus on a large shallow lake (Lake Chaohu) located in one of the most densely populated areas in China, the lower Yangtze River floodplain, which has undergone both WLC and increasing nutrient loading over the last several decades. We applied a novel methodology that combines consistent evidence from both paleolimnological records and ecosystem modeling to overcome the hurdle of data insufficiency and to unravel the drivers and underlying mechanisms in ecosystem dynamics. We identified the occurrence of two regime shifts: one in 1963, characterized by the abrupt disappearance of submerged vegetation, and another around 1980, with strong algal blooms being observed thereafter. Using model scenarios, we further disentangled the roles of WLC and nutrient loading, showing that the 1963 shift was predominantly triggered by WLC, whereas the shift ca. 1980 was attributed to aggravated nutrient loading. Our analysis also shows interactions between these two stressors. Compared to the dynamics driven by nutrient loading alone, WLC reduced the critical P loading and resulted in earlier disappearance of submerged vegetation and emergence of algal blooms by approximately 26 and 10 years, respectively. Overall, our study reveals the significant role of hydrological regulation in driving shallow lake ecosystem dynamics, and it highlights the urgency of using multi-objective management criteria that includes ecological sustainability perspectives when

  14. Laurentian Great Lakes Phytoplankton and Their Water Quality Characteristics, Including a Diatom-Based Model for Paleoreconstruction of Phosphorus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reavie, Euan D.; Heathcote, Adam J.; Shaw Chraïbi, Victoria L.

    2014-01-01

    Recent shifts in water quality and food web characteristics driven by anthropogenic impacts on the Laurentian Great Lakes warranted an examination of pelagic primary producers as tracers of environmental change. The distributions of the 263 common phytoplankton taxa were related to water quality variables to determine taxon-specific responses that may be useful in indicator models. A detailed checklist of taxa and their environmental optima are provided. Multivariate analyses indicated a strong relationship between total phosphorus (TP) and patterns in the diatom assemblages across the Great Lakes. Of the 118 common diatom taxa, 90 (76%) had a directional response along the TP gradient. We further evaluated a diatom-based transfer function for TP based on the weighted-average abundance of taxa, assuming unimodal distributions along the TP gradient. The r2 between observed and inferred TP in the training dataset was 0.79. Substantial spatial and environmental autocorrelation within the training set of samples justified the need for further model validation. A randomization procedure indicated that the actual transfer function consistently performed better than functions based on reshuffled environmental data. Further, TP was minimally confounded by other environmental variables, as indicated by the relatively large amount of unique variance in the diatoms explained by TP. We demonstrated the effectiveness of the transfer function by hindcasting TP concentrations using fossil diatom assemblages in a Lake Superior sediment core. Passive, multivariate analysis of the fossil samples against the training set indicated that phosphorus was a strong determinant of historical diatom assemblages, verifying that the transfer function was suited to reconstruct past TP in Lake Superior. Collectively, these results showed that phytoplankton coefficients for water quality can be robust indicators of Great Lakes pelagic condition. The diatom-based transfer function can be used in

  15. Antarctic radiation exposure doubles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blue, Charles

    New data reveal that the Antarctic Peninsula received twice its normal maximum dose of hazardous solar ultraviolet radiation in December 1990. The prolonged persistence of the ozone hole over Antarctica caused an increased exposure of radiation, according to a paper published in the October issue of Geophysical Research Letters.John Frederick and Amy D. Alberts of the University of Chicago calculated the amount of ultraviolet solar spectral radiation from data collected at Palmer Station, Antarctica. During the spring of 1990 the largest observed values for ultraviolet radiation were approximately double the values expected, based on previous years. “The measurements from Palmer Station are consistent with similar data from McMurdo Sound, where a factor of three [ultraviolet radiation] enhancement was recorded, according to work by Knut Stamnes and colleagues at the University of Alaska,” Frederick said. “The radiation levels observed over Palmer Station in December 1990 may be the largest experienced in this region of the world since the development of the Earth's ozone layer,” he added.

  16. Response of alpine lakes and soils to changes in acid deposition: the MAGIC model applied to the Tatra Mountain region, Slovakia-Poland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Josef VESELÝ

    2004-02-01

    Full Text Available A dynamic process-based model of surface water acidification, MAGIC, was applied to 31 representative alpine lakes in the Tatra Mountains (~50% of all alpine lakes >0.3 ha in the lake-district. The model was calibrated to observed lake chemistry for the period 1980-2002. Surface water and soil chemistry were reconstructed from 1860 to 2002, given estimates of historical acid deposition, and forecast to 2020 based on the reduction in sulphur and nitrogen emissions presupposed by the Gothenburg Protocol. In the 1860s, all lakes were buffered by the carbonate system and only ~6% of lakes had acid neutralising capacity (ANC 50% of the SAA change in sensitive lakes with intermediate weathering rates and little soils (low BC exchangeable capacity and elevated terrestrial export of nitrate and (3 by parallel changes in concentrations of protons and aluminium (each ~20% of the SAA change in extremely sensitive lakes, with the lowest weathering rates and soil base saturation. The full implementation of the Gothenburg Protocol will not be sufficient to allow recovery of the latter group of lakes, which will remain acidified after 2020.

  17. Lake Morphometry for NHD Lakes in California Region 18 HUC

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — Lake morphometry metrics are known to influence productivity in lakes and are important for building various types of ecological and environmental models of lentic...

  18. Lake Morphometry for NHD Lakes in Ohio Region 5 HUC

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — Lake morphometry metrics are known to influence productivity in lakes and are important for building various types of ecological and environmental models of lentic...

  19. Regulating Antarctic Tourism and the Precautionary Principle

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bastmeijer, C.J.; Roura, R.

    2004-01-01

    On the basis of an overview of the developments in Antarctic tourism since 1956, this current development note examines the issue of international regulation of Antarctic tourism. After discussing one of the main management issues in respect of Antarctic tourism ¿ the assessment and prevention of

  20. The late Cainozoic East Antarctic ice sheet

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Colhoun, E.A.

    1999-01-01

    A review, mainly of East Antarctic late Cainozoic (post 40 Ma) geological and geomorphological evidence, supports the hypothesis of the continuous presence of an ice sheet, of about the present size, since the late Miocene. Evidence is presented and the view advanced that, during the late Wisconsin maximum of isotope stage 2, ice was not nearly as thick or extensive over the continental shelf as required by the model of 'maximum' Antarctic glaciation. Some of the factors influencing the contribution of Antarctica to post-glacial sea-level rise are discussed. It is considered that Antarctica's contribution was probably considerably less than previously estimated. The dating of marine and freshwater sequences in the Vestfold and Bunger Hills is consistent with deglaciation around the Pleistocene Holocene boundary, after the Late Wisconsin maximum. A date of ∼25 ka BP from permafrost in the Larsemann Hills means that either the Larsemann Hills were not glaciated during the Late Wisconsin or the ice failed to erode much of the permafrost surface. The degree of weathering of rock and glacial drifts in the Vestfold, Larsemann and Bunger Hills suggests a long time for formation, perhaps considerably longer than indicated by the dated marine and freshwater sediment sequences. Cosmogenic isotope dating in the Vestfold Hills has provided equivocal ages for deglaciation. While the results could indicate deglaciation before 80 ka BP, they do not confirm such early deglaciation. If the ice cover was thin and failed to remove the previous rock exposure profile, then the assays could predate the last ice advance. Weathered iron crust fragments in the till suggest little erosion. The raised beaches of the oases are Holocene. Assuming they have been produced by post Late Wisconsin isostatic uplift and by the Holocene transgression, calculations show that the Antarctic continental ice sheet could not have been more than ∼500 m thicker in the inner shelf-coastal zone. The

  1. Modeling transport and deposition of contaminants to ecosystems of concern: a case study for the Laurentian Great Lakes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    MacLeod, Matthew; Mackay, Don

    2004-01-01

    Transfer efficiency (TE) is introduced as a model output that can be used to characterize the relative ability of chemicals to be transported in the environment and deposited to specific target ecosystems. We illustrate this concept by applying the Berkeley-Trent North American contaminant fate model (BETR North America) to identify organic chemicals with properties that result in efficient atmospheric transport and deposition to the Laurentian Great Lakes. By systematically applying the model to hypothetical organic chemicals that span a wide range of environmental partitioning properties, we identify combinations of properties that favor efficient transport and deposition to the Lakes. Five classes of chemicals are identified based on dominant transport and deposition pathways, and specific examples of chemicals in each class are identified and discussed. The role of vegetation in scavenging chemicals from the atmosphere is assessed, and found to have a negligible influence on transfer efficiency to the Great Lakes. Results indicate chemicals with octanol-water (K ow ) and air-water (K aw ) partition coefficients in the range of 10 5 -10 7 and 10 -4 -10 -1 combine efficient transport and deposition to the Great Lakes with potential for biaccumulation in the aquatic food web once they are deposited. A method of estimating the time scale for atmospheric transport and deposition process is suggested, and the effects of degrading reactions in the atmosphere and meteorological conditions on transport efficiency of different classes of chemicals are discussed. In total, this approach provides a method of identifying chemicals that are subject to long-range transport and deposition to specific target ecosystems as a result of their partitioning and persistence characteristics. Supported by an appropriate contaminant fate model, the approach can be applied to any target ecosystem of concern. - Transfer Efficiency is defined as a model-based measure of sources of POPs to

  2. Flexural-response of the McMurdo Ice Shelf to surface lake filling and drainage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banwell, A. F.; MacAyeal, D. R.; Willis, I.; Macdonald, G. J.; Goodsell, B.

    2017-12-01

    Antarctic ice-shelf instability and break-up, as exhibited by the Larsen B ice shelf in 2002, remains one of the most difficult glaciological processes to observe directly. It is, however, vital to do so because ice-shelf breakup has the potential to influence the buttressing controls on inland ice discharge, and thus to affect sea level. Several mechanisms enabling Larsen B style breakup have previously been proposed, including the ability of surface lakes to introduce ice-shelf fractures when they fill and drain. During the austral summer of 2016/2017, we monitored the filling and draining of four surface lakes on the McMurdo Ice Shelf, Antarctica, and the effect of these processes on ice-shelf flexure. Water-depth data from pressure sensors reveal that two lakes filled to >2 m in depth and subsequently drained over multiple week timescales, which had a simultaneous effect on vertical ice deflection in the area. Differential GPS data from 12 receivers over three months show that vertical deflection varies as a function of distance from the maximum load change (i.e. at the lake centre). Using remote sensing techniques applied to both Landsat 8 and Worldview imagery, we also quantify the meltwater volume in these two lakes through the melt season, which, together with the vertical deflection data, are used to constrain key flexural parameter values in numerical models of ice-shelf flexure.

  3. Modeling spatial and temporal variations in temperature and salinity during stratification and overturn in Dexter Pit Lake, Tuscarora, Nevada, USA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Balistrieri, Laurie S.; Tempel, Regina N.; Stillings, Lisa L.; Shevenell, Lisa A.

    2006-01-01

    This paper examines the seasonal cycling of temperature and salinity in Dexter pit lake in arid northern Nevada, and describes an approach for modeling the physical processes that operate in such systems. The pit lake contains about 596,200 m 3 of dilute, near neutral (pHs 6.7-9) water. Profiles of temperature, conductivity, and selected element concentrations were measured almost monthly during 1999 and 2000. In winter (January-March), the pit lake was covered with ice and bottom water was warmer (5.3 deg. C) with higher total dissolved solids (0.298 g/L) than overlying water (3.96 deg. C and 0.241 g/L), suggesting inflow of warm (11.7 deg. C) groundwater with a higher conductivity than the lake (657 versus 126-383 μS/cm). Seasonal surface inflow due to spring snowmelt resulted in lower conductivity in the surface water (232-247 μS/cm) relative to deeper water (315-318 μS/cm). The pit lake was thermally stratified from late spring through early fall, and the water column turned over in late November (2000) or early December (1999). The pit lake is a mixture of inflowing surface water and groundwater that has subsequently been evapoconcentrated in the arid environment. Linear relationships between conductivity and major and some minor (B, Li, Sr, and U) ions indicate conservative mixing for these elements. Similar changes in the elevations of the pit lake surface and nearby groundwater wells during the year suggest that the pit lake is a flow-through system. This observation and geochemical information were used to configure an one-dimensional hydrodynamics model (Dynamic Reservoir Simulation Model or DYRESM) that predicts seasonal changes in temperature and salinity based on the interplay of physical processes, including heating and cooling (solar insolation, long and short wave radiation, latent, and sensible heat), hydrologic flow (inflow and outflow by surface and ground water, pumping, evaporation, and precipitation), and transfers of momentum (wind

  4. Natural resource damage assessment models for Great Lakes, coastal, and marine environments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    French, D.P.; Reed, M.

    1993-01-01

    A computer model of the physical fates, biological effects, and economic damages resulting from releases of oil and other hazardous materials has been developed by Applied Science Associates to be used in Type A natural resource damage assessments under the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act of 1980 (CERCLA). Natural resource damage assessment models for great lakes environments and for coastal and marine environments will become available. A coupled geographical information system allows gridded representation of complex coastal boundaries, variable bathymetry, shoreline types, and multiple biological habitats. The physical and biological models are three dimensional. Direct mortality from toxic concentrations and oiling, impacts of habitat loss, and food web losses are included in the model. Estimation of natural resource damages is based both on the lost value of injured resources and on the costs of restoring or replacing those resources. The models are implemented on a personal computer, with a VGA graphical user interface. Following public review, the models will become a formal part of the US regulatory framework. The models are programmed in a modular and generic fashion, to facilitate transportability and application to new areas. The model has several major components. Physical fates and biological effects submodels estimate impacts or injury resulting from a spill. The hydrodynamic submodel calculates currents that transport contaminant(s) or organisms. The compensable value submodel values injuries to help assess damages. The restoration submodel determines what restoration actions will most cost-effectively reduce injuries as measured by compensable values. Injury and restoration costs are assessed for each of a series of habitats (environments) affected by the spill. Environmental, chemical, and biological databases supply required information to the model for computing fates and effects (injury)

  5. USE OF A LUMPED MODEL (MAGIC) TO BOUND THE ESTIMATION OF POTENTIAL FUTURE EFFECTS OF SULFUR AND NITROGEN DEPOSITION ON LAKE CHEMISTRY IN THE ADIRONDACK MOUNTAINS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leaching of atmospherically deposited nitrogen from forested watersheds can acidify lakes and streams. Using a modified version of the Model of Acidification of Groundwater in Catchments, we made computer simulations of such effects for 36 lake catchments in the Adirondack Mount...

  6. Universally applicable model for the quantitative determination of lake sediment composition using fourier transform infrared spectroscopy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosén, Peter; Vogel, Hendrik; Cunningham, Laura; Hahn, Annette; Hausmann, Sonja; Pienitz, Reinhard; Zolitschka, Bernd; Wagner, Bernd; Persson, Per

    2011-10-15

    Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIRS) can provide detailed information on organic and minerogenic constituents of sediment records. Based on a large number of sediment samples of varying age (0-340,000 yrs) and from very diverse lake settings in Antarctica, Argentina, Canada, Macedonia/Albania, Siberia, and Sweden, we have developed universally applicable calibration models for the quantitative determination of biogenic silica (BSi; n = 816), total inorganic carbon (TIC; n = 879), and total organic carbon (TOC; n = 3164) using FTIRS. These models are based on the differential absorbance of infrared radiation at specific wavelengths with varying concentrations of individual parameters, due to molecular vibrations associated with each parameter. The calibration models have low prediction errors and the predicted values are highly correlated with conventionally measured values (R = 0.94-0.99). Robustness tests indicate the accuracy of the newly developed FTIRS calibration models is similar to that of conventional geochemical analyses. Consequently FTIRS offers a useful and rapid alternative to conventional analyses for the quantitative determination of BSi, TIC, and TOC. The rapidity, cost-effectiveness, and small sample size required enables FTIRS determination of geochemical properties to be undertaken at higher resolutions than would otherwise be possible with the same resource allocation, thus providing crucial sedimentological information for climatic and environmental reconstructions.

  7. International Planning for Subglacial Lake Exploration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kennicutt, M.; Priscu, J.

    2003-04-01

    As one of the last unexplored frontiers on our planet, subglacial lakes offer a unique and exciting venue for exploration and research. Over the past several years, subglacial lakes have captured the imagination of the scientific community and public, evoking images of potential exotic life forms surviving under some of the most extreme conditions on earth. Various planning activities have recognized that due to the remote and harsh conditions, that a successful subglacial lake exploration program will entail a concerted effort for a number of years. It will also require an international commitment of major financial and human resources. To begin a detailed planning process, the Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research (SCAR) convened the Subglacial Antarctic Lake Exploration Group of Specialists (SALEGOS) in Tokyo in 2000. The group was asked to build on previous workshops and meetings to develop a plan to explore subglacial lake environments. Its mandate adopted the guiding principles as agreed in Cambridge in 1999 that the program would be interdisciplinary in scope, be designed for minimum contamination and disturbance of the subglacial lake environment, have as a goal lake entry and sample retrieval, and that the ultimate target of the program should be Lake Vostok exploration. Since its formation SALEGOS has met three times and addressed some of the more intractable issues related to subglacial lake exploration. Topics under discussion include current state-of-the-knowledge of subglacial environments, technological needs, international management and organizational strategies, a portfolio of scientific projects, "clean" requirements, and logistical considerations. In this presentation the actvities of SALEGOS will be summarized and recommendations for an international subglacial lake exploration program discussed.

  8. Inclusive business model in tapioca starch industry in Lake Toba area: a case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tampubolon, S.; Manik, Y.

    2018-04-01

    The notion of inclusive business calls for additional focus and innovation in the way companies do business which seeks to contribute to poverty alleviation by including Bottom of the Pyramids (BoP) communities within its value chain while not losing sight of the ultimate goal of business. Lake Toba Area has potentials in providing chances for doing businesses. On the other hand, the growth of market size is rather slow and demographically still dominated by BoP. This is a case study which seeks to investigate to what extent the Inclusive Business Model (IBM) is adopted in the strategic planning and applied in the operational management of companies that operate in Lake Toba Area. The study was conducted in qualitative basis. The observation was conducted by gathering data and information through a series of interviews with the top management and desk study of the business plan in a tapioca starch industry in Toba Samosir Regency. The collected data and information were then analyzed qualitatively by comparing them with criteria and parameters of IBM suggested in a vast body of literature. The reference by which the IBM is referred in this study is a series of criteria which is synthesized from a literature review on a vast body of literature about IBM. From data analysis, it is evident that IBM has been incorporated in the strategic plan and applied in the operational activities of the object of this study. However, we also found some rooms for improvement such as expanding the involvement of BoP in their value chain as consumers, by which some innovation in the product diversification is required.

  9. Modeling thermal structure, ice cover regime and sensitivity to climate change of two regulated lakes - a Norwegian case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gebre, Solomon; Boissy, Thibault; Alfredsen, Knut

    2013-04-01

    A great number of river and lakes in Norway and the Nordic region at large are regulated for water management such as hydropower production. Such regulations have the potential to alter the thermal and hydrological regimes in the lakes and rivers downstream impacting on river environment and ecology. Anticipated changes as a result of climate change in meteorological forcing data such as air temperature and precipitation cause changes in the water balance, water temperature and ice cover duration in the reservoirs. This may necessitate changes in operational rules as part of an adaptation strategy for the future. In this study, a one dimensional (1D) lake thermodynamic and ice cover model (MyLake) has been modified to take into account the effect of dynamic outflows in reservoirs and applied to two small but relatively deep regulated lakes (reservoirs) in Norway (Follsjøen and Tesse). The objective was to assess climate change impacts on the seasonal thermal characteristics, the withdrawal temperatures, and the reservoir ice cover dynamics with current operational regimes. The model solves the vertical energy balance on a daily time-step driven by meteorological and hydrological forcings: 2m air temperature, precipitation, 2m relative humidity, 10m wind speed, cloud cover, air pressure, solar insolation, inflow volume, inflow temperature and reservoir outflows. Model calibration with multi-seasonal data of temperature profiles showed that the model performed well in simulating the vertical water temperature profiles for the two study reservoirs. The withdrawal temperatures were also simulated reasonably well. The comparison between observed and simulated lake ice phenology (which were available only for one of the reservoirs - Tesse) was also reasonable taking into account the uncertainty in the observational data. After model testing and calibration, the model was then used to simulate expected changes in the future (2080s) due to climate change by considering

  10. A field studies and modeling approach to develop organochlorine pesticide and PCB total maximum daily load calculations: Case study for Echo Park Lake, Los Angeles, CA

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vasquez, V.R., E-mail: vrvasquez@ucla.edu [Environmental Science and Engineering Program, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA 90095-1496 (United States); Curren, J., E-mail: janecurren@yahoo.com [Environmental Science and Engineering Program, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA 90095-1496 (United States); Lau, S.-L., E-mail: simlin@ucla.edu [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA 90095-1496 (United States); Stenstrom, M.K., E-mail: stenstro@seas.ucla.edu [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA 90095-1496 (United States); Suffet, I.H., E-mail: msuffet@ucla.edu [Environmental Science and Engineering Program, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA 90095-1496 (United States)

    2011-09-01

    Echo Park Lake is a small lake in Los Angeles, CA listed on the USA Clean Water Act Section 303(d) list of impaired water bodies for elevated levels of organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) in fish tissue. A lake water and sediment sampling program was completed to support the development of total maximum daily loads (TMDL) to address the lake impairment. The field data indicated quantifiable levels of OCPs and PCBs in the sediments, but lake water data were all below detection levels. The field sediment data obtained may explain the contaminant levels in fish tissue using appropriate sediment-water partitioning coefficients and bioaccumulation factors. A partition-equilibrium fugacity model of the whole lake system was used to interpret the field data and indicated that half of the total mass of the pollutants in the system are in the sediments and the other half is in soil; therefore, soil erosion could be a significant pollutant transport mode into the lake. Modeling also indicated that developing and quantifying the TMDL depends significantly on the analytical detection level for the pollutants in field samples and on the choice of octanol-water partitioning coefficient and bioaccumulation factors for the model. - Research highlights: {yields} Fugacity model using new OCP and PCB field data supports lake TMDL calculations. {yields} OCP and PCB levels in lake sediment were found above levels for impairment. {yields} Relationship between sediment data and available fish tissue data evaluated. {yields} Model provides approximation of contaminant sources and sinks for a lake system. {yields} Model results were sensitive to analytical detection and quantification levels.

  11. Executive summary - Assessing the response of Emerald Lake, an alpine watershed in Sequoia National Park, California, to acidification during snowmelt using a simple hydrochemical model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hooper, R.P.; West, C.T.; Peters, N.E.

    1990-01-01

    A simple process-oriented model, called the Alpine Lake Forecaster (ALF), was constructed using data collected from the Integrated Watershed Study of Emerald Lake, Sequoia National Park, California. ALF is able to capture the basic solute patterns during snowmelt in this alpine catchment where groundwater is a minor contributor to streamflow. It includes an empirical representation of primary mineral weathering as the only alkalinity generating mechanism. During a heavy snow year, such as the one used for calibrating the model, the model accurately simulated the surface water chemical change in response to the initial ionic pulse from the snowpack and to the dilution that occurs at peak snowmelt. Because the model does not consider cation exchange, it over-predicts the acidification during the initial period of snowmelt, and therefore is a conservative predictor. However, the minimum alkalinity observed in the main inflows to Emerald Lake and in the lake outflow is accurately simulated by the model. The representation of the lake as simply a missing volume with no additional chemical reactions is supported by the observation. The model predicts a change of 2 to 5 microequiv/L in the minimum alkalinity of the lake outflow during snowmelt if the deposition would have to increase between two and 18 times the current load-alkalinity of the lake; the precise increase depends on hydrologic conditions and on the pattern of solute release from the snowpack. An acidic rainstorm that exhausted the alkalinity of the lake was observed during summer 1984 after the lake had stratified, and is the likely cause of the acidification of Emerald Lake

  12. SWAT modeling of Critical Source Area for Runoff and Phosphorus losses: Lake Champlain Basin, VT

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lake Champlain, located between Vermont, New York, and Quebec, exhibits eutrophication due to continuing phosphorus (P) inputs mainly from upstream nonpoint source areas. To address the Lake's eutrophication problem and as part of total maximum daily load (TMDL) requirements, a state-level P reducti...

  13. Simulation Modeling of Lakes in Undergraduate and Graduate Classrooms Increases Comprehension of Climate Change Concepts and Experience with Computational Tools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carey, Cayelan C.; Gougis, Rebekka Darner

    2017-02-01

    Ecosystem modeling is a critically important tool for environmental scientists, yet is rarely taught in undergraduate and graduate classrooms. To address this gap, we developed a teaching module that exposes students to a suite of modeling skills and tools (including computer programming, numerical simulation modeling, and distributed computing) that students apply to study how lakes around the globe are experiencing the effects of climate change. In the module, students develop hypotheses about the effects of different climate scenarios on lakes and then test their hypotheses using hundreds of model simulations. We taught the module in a 4-hour workshop and found that participation in the module significantly increased both undergraduate and graduate students' understanding about climate change effects on lakes. Moreover, participation in the module also significantly increased students' perceived experience level in using different software, technologies, and modeling tools. By embedding modeling in an environmental science context, non-computer science students were able to successfully use and master technologies that they had previously never been exposed to. Overall, our findings suggest that modeling is a powerful tool for catalyzing student learning on the effects of climate change.

  14. Modeling erosion and accretion along the