WorldWideScience

Sample records for antarctic lakes models

  1. Modeling Antarctic Subglacial Lake Filling and Drainage Cycles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dow, Christine F.; Werder, Mauro A.; Nowicki, Sophie; Walker, Ryan T.

    2016-01-01

    The growth and drainage of active subglacial lakes in Antarctica has previously been inferred from analysis of ice surface altimetry data. We use a subglacial hydrology model applied to a synthetic Antarctic ice stream to examine internal controls on the filling and drainage of subglacial lakes. Our model outputs suggest that the highly constricted subglacial environment of our idealized ice stream, combined with relatively high rates of water flow funneled from a large catchment, can combine to create a system exhibiting slow-moving pressure waves. Over a period of years, the accumulation of water in the ice stream onset region results in a buildup of pressure creating temporary channels, which then evacuate the excess water. This increased flux of water beneath the ice stream drives lake growth. As the water body builds up, it steepens the hydraulic gradient out of the overdeepened lake basin and allows greater flux. Eventually this flux is large enough to melt channels that cause the lake to drain. Lake drainage also depends on the internal hydrological development in the wider system and therefore does not directly correspond to a particular water volume or depth. This creates a highly temporally and spatially variable system, which is of interest for assessing the importance of subglacial lakes in ice stream hydrology and dynamics.

  2. Modeling Antarctic subglacial lake filling and drainage cycles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. F. Dow

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available The growth and drainage of active subglacial lakes in Antarctica has previously been inferred from analysis of ice surface altimetry data. We use a subglacial hydrology model applied to a synthetic Antarctic ice stream to determine internal controls on the filling and drainage of subglacial lakes and their impact on ice stream dynamics. Our model outputs suggest that the highly constricted subglacial environment of the ice stream, combined with relatively high rates of water flow funneled from large catchments, can combine to create a system exhibiting slow-moving pressure waves. Over a period of years, the accumulation of water in the ice stream onset region results in a buildup of pressure creating temporary channels, which then evacuate the excess water. This increased flux of water through the ice stream drives lake growth. As the water body builds up, it too steepens the hydraulic gradient and allows greater flux out of the overdeepened lake basin. Eventually this flux is large enough to create channels that cause the lake to drain. Due to the presence of the channels, the drainage of the lake causes high water pressures around 50 km downstream of the lake rather than immediately in the vicinity of the overdeepening. Following lake drainage, channels again shut down. Lake drainage depends on the internal hydrological development in the wider system and therefore does not directly correspond to a particular water volume or depth. This creates a highly temporally and spatially variable system, which is of interest for assessing the importance of subglacial lakes in ice stream hydrology and dynamics.

  3. Geoethical Approach to Antarctic Subglacial Lakes Exploration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Talalay, Pavel; Markov, Alexey; Sysoev, Mikhail

    2014-05-01

    Antarctic subglacial aquatic environment have become of great interest to the science community because they may provide unique information about microbial evolution, the past climate of the Earth, and the formation of the Antarctic ice sheet. Nowadays it is generally recognized that a vast network of lakes, rivers, and streams exists thousands of meters beneath Antarctic Ice Sheets. Up to date only four boreholes accessed subglacial aquatic system but three of them were filled with high-toxic drilling fluid, and the subglacial water was contaminated. Two recent exploration programs proposed by UK and USA science communities anticipated direct access down to the lakes Ellsworth and Whillans, respectively, in the 2012/2013 Antarctic season. A team of British scientists and engineers engaged in the first attempt to drill into Lake Ellsworth but failed. US research team has successfully drilled through 800 m of Antarctic ice to reach a subglacial lake Whillans and retrieve water and sediment samples. Both activities used hot-water drilling technology to access lakes. Hot water is considered by the world science community as the most clean drilling fluid medium from the present point of view but it cannot solve environmental problems in total because hot-water even when heated to 90 °C, filtered to 0.2 μm, and UV treated at the surface could pick up microorganisms from near-surface snow and circulate them in great volume through the borehole. Another negative impact of hot-water circulation medium is thermal pollution of subglacial water. The new approach to Antarctic subglacial lakes exploration is presented by sampling technology with recoverable autonomous sonde which is equipped by two hot-points with heating elements located on the bottom and top sides of the sonde. All down-hole sonde components will be sterilized by combination of chemical wash, HPV and UV sterilization prior using. At the beginning of the summer season sonde is installed on the surface of the

  4. Modelling the Antarctic Ice Sheet

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Jens Olaf Pepke; Holm, A.

    2015-01-01

    The Antarctic ice sheet is a major player in the Earth’s climate system and is by far the largest depository of fresh water on the planet. Ice stored in the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) contains enough water to raise sea level by about 58 m, and ice loss from Antarctica contributed significantly...... Science) Antarctic Ice Sheet (DAIS) model (Shaffer 2014) is forced by reconstructed time series of Antarctic temperature, global sea level and ocean subsurface temperature over the last two glacial cycles. In this talk a modelling work of the Antarctic ice sheet over most of the Cenozoic era using...... the DAIS model will be presented. G. Shaffer (2014) Formulation, calibration and validation of the DAIS model (version 1), a simple Antarctic ice sheet model sensitive to variations of sea level and ocean subsurface temperature, Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 1803‐1818...

  5. Antarctic subglacial lake exploration: first results and future plans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siegert, Martin J; Priscu, John C; Alekhina, Irina A; Wadham, Jemma L; Lyons, W Berry

    2016-01-28

    After more than a decade of planning, three attempts were made in 2012-2013 to access, measure in situ properties and directly sample subglacial Antarctic lake environments. First, Russian scientists drilled into the top of Lake Vostok, allowing lake water to infiltrate, and freeze within, the lower part of the ice-core borehole, from which further coring would recover a frozen sample of surface lake water. Second, UK engineers tried unsuccessfully to deploy a clean-access hot-water drill, to sample the water column and sediments of subglacial Lake Ellsworth. Third, a US mission successfully drilled cleanly into subglacial Lake Whillans, a shallow hydraulically active lake at the coastal margin of West Antarctica, obtaining samples that would later be used to prove the existence of microbial life and active biogeochemical cycling beneath the ice sheet. This article summarizes the results of these programmes in terms of the scientific results obtained, the operational knowledge gained and the engineering challenges revealed, to collate what is known about Antarctic subglacial environments and how to explore them in future. While results from Lake Whillans testify to subglacial lakes as being viable biological habitats, the engineering challenges to explore deeper more isolated lakes where unique microorganisms and climate records may be found, as exemplified in the Lake Ellsworth and Vostok missions, are considerable. Through international cooperation, and by using equipment and knowledge of the existing subglacial lake exploration programmes, it is possible that such environments could be explored thoroughly, and at numerous sites, in the near future.

  6. Antarctic subglacial lake exploration: first results and future plans

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siegert, Martin J.; Priscu, John C.; Wadham, Jemma L.; Lyons, W. Berry

    2016-01-01

    After more than a decade of planning, three attempts were made in 2012–2013 to access, measure in situ properties and directly sample subglacial Antarctic lake environments. First, Russian scientists drilled into the top of Lake Vostok, allowing lake water to infiltrate, and freeze within, the lower part of the ice-core borehole, from which further coring would recover a frozen sample of surface lake water. Second, UK engineers tried unsuccessfully to deploy a clean-access hot-water drill, to sample the water column and sediments of subglacial Lake Ellsworth. Third, a US mission successfully drilled cleanly into subglacial Lake Whillans, a shallow hydraulically active lake at the coastal margin of West Antarctica, obtaining samples that would later be used to prove the existence of microbial life and active biogeochemical cycling beneath the ice sheet. This article summarizes the results of these programmes in terms of the scientific results obtained, the operational knowledge gained and the engineering challenges revealed, to collate what is known about Antarctic subglacial environments and how to explore them in future. While results from Lake Whillans testify to subglacial lakes as being viable biological habitats, the engineering challenges to explore deeper more isolated lakes where unique microorganisms and climate records may be found, as exemplified in the Lake Ellsworth and Vostok missions, are considerable. Through international cooperation, and by using equipment and knowledge of the existing subglacial lake exploration programmes, it is possible that such environments could be explored thoroughly, and at numerous sites, in the near future. PMID:26667917

  7. Novel intact glycolipids in sediments from an Antarctic lake (Ace Lake)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sinninghe Damsté, J.S.; Dongen, B.E. van; Reiss-Schaeffer, C.; Schouten, S.; Volkman, J.K.; Geenevasen, J.A.J.

    2001-01-01

    Two novel glycolipids, docosanyl 3-O-methyl--rhamnopyranoside and docosanyl 3-O-methylxylopyranoside, were identified as the most abundant GC-amenable components of extracts of sediments of Ace Lake, an Antarctic meromictic lake. Docosanyl 3-O-methyl--rhamnopyranoside was identified by isolation and

  8. Study on ecological structures of coastal lakes in Antarctic continent

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2000-01-01

    Coastal region on the Antarctic continent, where it is under the influences both of ocean and ice sheet, as well as frequent human activities, could be considered as a fragile zone in Antarctic ecological environment. There are many lakes in coastal region, showing much differences from each other in physical-chemical features because of individual evolutionary history in their geographical environments, and suffering from different outside factors, such as climate changes and precipitation. Thus, it results in respective biological distribution and ecological structure in lakes. The present paper reports the results from the studies of chemical components, species distributions and community structures, which mainly consisted of planktons in lakes in the Vestfold Hills (68°38'S, 78°06'E), and the Larsemann Hills (69°30'S, 76°20'E), East Antarctica. It also treats the biological diversities and nutrient relationships of these different types of lakes. So as to provide more scientific basis for monitoring of climate changes and environmental protection in Antarctica.

  9. Recent advances in understanding Antarctic subglacial lakes and hydrology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siegert, Martin J; Ross, Neil; Le Brocq, Anne M

    2016-01-28

    It is now well documented that over 400 subglacial lakes exist across the bed of the Antarctic Ice Sheet. They comprise a variety of sizes and volumes (from the approx. 250 km long Lake Vostok to bodies of water less than 1 km in length), relate to a number of discrete topographic settings (from those contained within valleys to lakes that reside in broad flat terrain) and exhibit a range of dynamic behaviours (from 'active' lakes that periodically outburst some or all of their water to those isolated hydrologically for millions of years). Here we critique recent advances in our understanding of subglacial lakes, in particular since the last inventory in 2012. We show that within 3 years our knowledge of the hydrological processes at the ice-sheet base has advanced considerably. We describe evidence for further 'active' subglacial lakes, based on satellite observation of ice-surface changes, and discuss why detection of many 'active' lakes is not resolved in traditional radio-echo sounding methods. We go on to review evidence for large-scale subglacial water flow in Antarctica, including the discovery of ancient channels developed by former hydrological processes. We end by predicting areas where future discoveries may be possible, including the detection, measurement and significance of groundwater (i.e. water held beneath the ice-bed interface).

  10. Subsurface imaging reveals a confined aquifer beneath an ice-sealed Antarctic lake

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dugan, H. A.; Doran, P. T.; Tulaczyk, S.;

    2015-01-01

    Liquid water oases are rare under extreme cold desert conditions found in the Antarctic McMurdo Dry Valleys. Here we report geophysical results that indicate that Lake Vida, one of the largest lakes in the region, is nearly frozen and underlain by widespread cryoconcentrated brine. A ground...

  11. The Distribution of Antarctic Subglacial Lake Environments With Implications for Their Origin and Evolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blankenship, D. D.; Young, D. A.; Carter, S. P.

    2006-12-01

    Ice-penetrating radar records across the Antarctic Ice Sheet show regions with strong flat mirror-like reflections from the subglacial interface that are interpreted to be from subglacial lakes. The majority of subglacial lakes are found in East Antarctica, primarily in topographically low areas of basins beneath the thick ice divides. Occasionally lakes are observed "perched" at higher elevations within local depressions of rough morphological regions. In addition, a correlation between the "onset" of enhanced glacial flow and subglacial lakes was identified. The greatest concentration of known lakes was found in the vicinity of Dome C. A second grouping of lakes lying near Ridge B includes Lake Vostok and several smaller lakes. Subglacial lakes were also discovered near the South Pole, within eastern Wilkes Land, west of the Transantarctic Mountains, and within West Antarctica's Whitmore Mountains. Aside from Lake Vostok, typical lengths of subglacial lakes were found to range from a few to about 20 kilometers. A recent inventory includes 145 subglacial lakes. Approximately 81% of detected lakes lie at elevations less than a few hundred meters above sea level while the majority of the remaining lakes are "perched" at higher elevations. We present the locations from the subglacial lake inventory on local "ice divides" calculated from the satellite derived surface elevations with and find the distance of each lake from these divides. Most significantly, we found that 66% of the lakes identified lie within 50 km of a local ice divide and 88% lie within 100 km of a local divide. In particular, note that lakes located far from the Dome C/Ridge B cluster and even those associated with very narrow catchments lie either on or within a few tens of kilometers of the local divide marked by the catchment boundary. The distance correlation of subglacial lakes with local ice divides leads to a fundamental question for the evolution of subglacial lake environments: Does the

  12. Spatial modelling of wetness for the Antarctic Dry Valleys

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Glen Stichbury

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes a method used to model relative wetness for part of the Antarctic Dry Valleys using Geographic Information Systems (GIS and remote sensing. The model produces a relative index of liquid water availability using variables that influence the volume and distribution of water. Remote sensing using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS images collected over four years is used to calculate an average index of snow cover and this is combined with other water sources such as glaciers and lakes. This water source model is then used to weight a hydrological flow accumulation model that uses slope derived from Light Detection and Ranging (LIDAR elevation data. The resulting wetness index is validated using three-dimensional visualization and a comparison with a high-resolution Advanced Land Observing Satellite image that shows drainage channels. This research demonstrates that it is possible to produce a wetness model of Antarctica using data that are becoming widely available.

  13. Ciliated protozoa of two antarctic lakes: analysis by quantitative protargol staining and examination of artificial substrates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kepner, R. L. Jr; Wharton, R. A. Jr; Coats, D. W.; Wharton RA, J. r. (Principal Investigator)

    1999-01-01

    Planktonic and artificial substrate-associated ciliates have been identified in two perennially ice-covered antarctic lakes of the McMurdo Dry Valleys. Abundances estimated by quantitative protargol staining ranged from < 5 to 31690 cells l-1, levels that are comparable to those previously obtained using other methods. Nineteen ciliate taxa were identified from these lakes, with the most frequently encountered genera being Plagiocampa, Askenasia, Monodinium, Sphaerophrya and Vorticella. The taxonomic findings compare favorably with those of previous investigators; however four previously unreported genera were observed in both Lakes Fryxell and Hoare. The variability in the depth distributions of ciliates in Lake Fryxell is explained in terms of lake physicochemical properties and ciliate prey distributions, while factors related to temporal succession in the Lake Hoare assemblage remain unexplained. Local marine or temperate zone freshwater habitats are a more likely source than the surrounding dry valleys soils for present ciliate colonists in these lakes. Although the taxonomic uncertainties require further examination, our results suggest that ciliate populations in these antarctic lakes undergo significant fluctuations and are more diverse than was previously recognized.

  14. Microwave emissivity of fresh water ice--Lake ice and Antarctic ice pack--Radiative transfer simulations versus satellite radiances

    CERN Document Server

    Mills, Peter

    2012-01-01

    Microwave emissivity models of sea ice are poorly validated empirically. Typical validation studies involve using averaged or stereotyped profiles of ice parameters against averaged radiance measurements. Measurement sites are rarely matched and even less often point-by-point. Because of saline content, complex permittivity of sea ice is highly variable and difficult to predict. Therefore, to check the validity of a typical, plane-parallel, radiative-transfer-based ice emissivity model, we apply it to fresh water ice instead of salt-water ice. Radiance simulations for lake ice are compared with measurements over Lake Superior from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer on EOS (AMSR-E). AMSR-E measurements are also collected over Antarctic icepack. For each pixel, a thermodynamic model is driven by four years of European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis data and the resulting temperature profiles used to drive the emissivity model. The results suggest that the relatively simple ...

  15.  Marine derived dinoflagellates in Antarctic saline lakes: Community composition and annual dynamics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rengefors, K.; Layborn-Parry, L.; Logares, R.;

    2008-01-01

    The saline lakes of the Vestfold Hills in Antarctica offer a remarkable natural laboratory where the adaptation of planktonic protists to a range of evolving physiochemical conditions can be investigated. This study illustrates how an ancestral marine community has undergone radical simplification...... leaving a small number of well-adapted species. Our objective was to investigate the species composition and annual dynamics of dinoflagellate communities in three saline Antarctic lakes. We observed that dinoflagellates occur year-round despite extremely low PAR during the southern winter, which suggests...... polar dinoflagellate community, and not freshwater species. Polarella glacialis Montresor, Procaccini et Stoecker, a bipolar marine species, was for the first time described in a lake habitat and was an important phototrophic component in the higher salinity lakes. In the brackish lakes, we found a new...

  16. An Observation of Antarctic Marginal Subglacial Lake using Cryosat-2 SARin mode

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, B.; Lee, C. K.; Seo, K. W.

    2015-12-01

    The surface height above active subglacial lake (SGL) varies in accordance with the water storage of lake beneath ice-sheet. Thus, satellite altimeters accurately measuring the ice surface height have discovered numbers of SGLs. In this study, we detect Antarctic SGLs using Cryosat-2 without any auxiliary data. The SARin mode of Cyrosat-2 is designed to retrieve the elevation over steep slope regions, such as margin of ice-sheet or ice-stream. The high-resolution processing of SARin mode yielding the elevation change rate (=Δh/Δt) enables us to verify the specific 2-D boundary of lake and even the small-scale uncategorized lakes. In the Whillans and Mercer Ice Streams (WIS and MIS), drainage or refilling events of 9 SGLs are apparent in Cyrosat-2 era, and one of those is likely an uncategorized lake. In addition, the ice thickening upstream of WIS and MIS, which might be provoked by the deceleration downstream of WIS, alternates between high and low rate. It might be associated with massive drainage event of lake "Conway". In the Kamb Ice Stream (KIS), most of previously known SGLs are not observed except for only one (Kamb trunk1) due to the limited spatial coverage of SARin mode operation. However, two additional lakes (located in 82.304S/147.980W and 82.477S/150.585W, respectively) are discovered at the downstream of Kamb trunk 1 lake. Similar approach is applied at slightly rugged terrain, which is located on the upstream of David Glacier. The drainage event of David 1 SGL is apparent, but the precise location of the lake is significantly (about twenty kilometers) different from previous ICESat measurement. Since ICESat measurements have limited temporal/spatial resolutions, we expect that Cryosat-2 have more optimal performance for measuring Antarctic Marginal SGLs.

  17. Seasonal evolution of supraglacial lakes on an East Antarctic outlet glacier

    Science.gov (United States)

    Langley, Emily S.; Leeson, Amber A.; Stokes, Chris R.; Jamieson, Stewart S. R.

    2016-08-01

    Supraglacial lakes are known to influence ice melt and ice flow on the Greenland ice sheet and potentially cause ice shelf disintegration on the Antarctic Peninsula. In East Antarctica, however, our understanding of their behavior and impact is more limited. Using >150 optical satellite images and meteorological records from 2000 to 2013, we provide the first multiyear analysis of lake evolution on Langhovde Glacier, Dronning Maud Land (69°11'S, 39°32'E). We mapped 7990 lakes and 855 surface channels up to 18.1 km inland (~670 m above sea level) from the grounding line and document three pathways of lake demise: (i) refreezing, (ii) drainage to the englacial/subglacial environment (on the floating ice), and (iii) overflow into surface channels (on both the floating and grounded ice). The parallels between these mechanisms, and those observed on Greenland and the Antarctic Peninsula, suggest that lakes may similarly affect rates and patterns of ice melt, ice flow, and ice shelf disintegration in East Antarctica.

  18. Stable water isotopic composition of the Antarctic subglacial Lake Vostok: implications for understanding the lake's hydrology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ekaykin, Alexey A; Lipenkov, Vladimir Y; Kozachek, Anna V; Vladimirova, Diana O

    2016-01-01

    We estimated the stable isotopic composition of water from the subglacial Lake Vostok using two different sets of samples: (1) water frozen on the drill bit immediately after the first lake unsealing and (2) water frozen in the borehole after the unsealing and re-drilled one year later. The most reliable values of the water isotopic composition are: -59.0 ± 0.3 ‰ for oxygen-18, -455 ± 1 ‰ for deuterium and 17 ± 1 ‰ for d-excess. This result is also confirmed by the modelling of isotopic transformations in the water which froze in the borehole, and by a laboratory experiment simulating this process. A comparison of the newly obtained water isotopic composition with that of the lake ice (-56.2 ‰ for oxygen-18, -442.4 ‰ for deuterium and 7.2 ‰ for d-excess) leads to the conclusion that the lake ice is very likely formed in isotopic equilibrium with water. In turn, this means that ice is formed by a slow freezing without formation of frazil ice crystals and/or water pockets. This conclusion agrees well with the observed physical and chemical properties of the lake's accreted ice. However, our estimate of the water's isotopic composition is only valid for the upper water layer and may not be representative for the deeper layers of the lake, so further investigations are required.

  19. Chemistry of snow and lake water in Antarctic region

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Kaushar Ali; Sunil Sonbawane; D M Chate; Devendraa Siingh; P S P Rao; P D Safai; K B Budhavant

    2010-12-01

    Surface snow and lake water samples were collected at different locations around Indian station at Antarctica, Maitri, during December 2004-March 2005 and December 2006-March 2007.Samples were analyzed for major chemical ions. It is found that average pH value of snow is 6.1. Average pH value of lake water with low chemical content is 6.2 and of lake water with high chemical content is 6.5.The Na+ and Cl− are the most abundantly occurring ions at Antarctica. Considerable amount of SO$^{2-}_{4}$ is also found in the surface snow and the lake water which is attributed to the oxidation of DMS produced by marine phytoplankton.Neutralization of acidic components of snow is mainly done by NH$^{+}_{4}$ and Mg2+. The Mg2+, Ca2+ and K+ are nearly equally effective in neutralizing the acidic components in lake water.The NH$^{+}_{4}$ and SO$^{2-}_{4}$ occur over the Antarctica region mostly in the form of (NH4)2SO4.

  20. Antarctic ecosystems as models for extraterrestrial surface habitats

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wynn-Williams, D. D.; Edwards, H. G. M.

    2000-09-01

    Surface habitats in Antarctic deserts are near the limits of life on Earth and resemble those hypothesized for early Mars. Cyanobacteria dominate the transient riverbeds, stromatolitic sediments in ice-covered lakes, and endolithic communities in translucent rock. There is still no direct evidence of photosynthetic life on early Mars, but cyanobacteria are amongst the earliest microbes detectable in the fossil record for analogous habitats on Earth. Key biomolecules persist in Antarctic microbial habitats, even after extinction by excessive low temperatures, desiccation and UV-B stress within the Ozone Hole. Pigments (or their fossil residues), such as chlorophyll and the UV-protectants scytonemin, carotene and quinones, are good biomarkers. To show not only their presence but also their micro-spatial distribution in situ, we describe the use of FT-Raman spectroscopy with 1064 nm excitation to avoid autofluorescence from the pigments. We report not only the diversity of biomolecules that we have diagnosed from their unique Raman spectra of Antarctic cyanobacterial communities, but also their functional stratification in endolithic communities. Our analyses of Antarctic habitats show the potential of this remote, non-intrusive technique to probe for buried biomolecules on future Mars missions and in Antarctic Lake Vostok, >4 km beneath the Central Ice Sheet, with implications for the putative analogous sub-ice ocean on Europa.

  1. Chemical limnology in coastal East Antarctic lakes: monitoring future climate change in centres of endemism and biodiversity

    OpenAIRE

    Verleyen, Elie; Hodgson, Dominic; Gibson, John; Imura, Satoshi; Kaup, Enn; Kudoh, Sakake; De Wever, Aaike; Hoshino, Tamotsu; McMinn, Andrew; Obbels, Dagmar; Roberts, Donna; Roberts, Stephen; Sabbe, Kobe; Souffreau, Caroline; Tavernier, Ines

    2012-01-01

    Polar lakes respond quickly to climate-induced environmental changes. We studied the chemical limnological variability in 127 lakes and ponds from eight ice-free regions along the East Antarctic coastline, and compared repeat specific conductance measurements from lakes in the Larsemann Hills and Skarvsnes covering the periods 1987–2009 and 1997–2008, respectively. Specific conductance, the concentration of the major ions, pH and the concentration of the major nutrients underlie t...

  2. Extensive lake sediment coring survey on Sub-Antarctic Indian Ocean Kerguelen Archipelago (French Austral and Antarctic Lands)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arnaud, Fabien; Fanget, Bernard; Malet, Emmanuel; Poulenard, Jérôme; Støren, Eivind; Leloup, Anouk; Bakke, Jostein; Sabatier, Pierre

    2016-04-01

    Recent paleo-studies revealed climatic southern high latitude climate evolution patterns that are crucial to understand the global climate evolution(1,2). Among others the strength and north-south shifts of westerlies wind appeared to be a key parameter(3). However, virtually no lands are located south of the 45th South parallel between Southern Georgia (60°W) and New Zealand (170°E) precluding the establishment of paleoclimate records of past westerlies dynamics. Located around 50°S and 70°E, lost in the middle of the sub-Antarctic Indian Ocean, Kerguelen archipelago is a major, geomorphologically complex, land-mass that is covered by hundreds lakes of various sizes. It hence offers a unique opportunity to reconstruct past climate and environment dynamics in a region where virtually nothing is known about it, except the remarkable recent reconstructions based on a Lateglacial peatbog sequence(4). During the 2014-2015 austral summer, a French-Norwegian team led the very first extensive lake sediment coring survey on Kerguelen Archipelago under the umbrella of the PALAS program supported by the French Polar Institute (IPEV). Two main areas were investigated: i) the southwest of the mainland, so-called Golfe du Morbihan, where glaciers are currently absent and ii) the northernmost Kerguelen mainland peninsula so-called Loranchet, where cirque glaciers are still present. This double-target strategy aims at reconstructing various independent indirect records of precipitation (glacier advance, flood dynamics) and wind speed (marine spray chemical species, wind-borne terrigenous input) to tackle the Holocene climate variability. Despite particularly harsh climate conditions and difficult logistics matters, we were able to core 6 lake sediment sites: 5 in Golfe du Morbihan and one in Loranchet peninsula. Among them two sequences taken in the 4km-long Lake Armor using a UWITEC re-entry piston coring system by 20 and 100m water-depth (6 and 7m-long, respectively). One

  3. Origin and Phylogeny of Microbes Living in Permanent Antarctic Lake Ice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gordon, D. A.; Priscu, J.; Giovannoni, S.

    2000-04-01

    A BSTRACTThe phylogenetic diversity of bacteria and cyanobacteria colonizing sediment particles in the permanent ice cover of an Antarctic lake was characterized by analyses of 16S rRNA genes amplified from environmental DNA. Samples of mineral particles were collected from a depth of 2.5 m in the 4-m-thick ice cover of Lake Bonney, McMurdo Dry Valleys, Antarctica. A rRNA gene clone library of 198 clones was made and characterized by sequencing and oligonucleotide probe hybridization. The library was dominated by representatives of the cyanobacteria, proteobacteria, and Planctomycetales, but also contained diverse clones representing many other microbial groups, including the Acidobacterium/Holophaga division, the Green Non-Sulfur division, and the Actinobacteria. Six oligonucleotide probes were made for the most abundant clades recovered in the library. To determine whether the ice microbial community might originate from wind dispersal of the algal mats found elsewhere in Taylor Valley, the probes were hybridized to 16S rDNAs amplified from three samples of terrestrial cyanobacterial mats collected at nearby sites, as well as to bacterial 16S rDNAs from the lake ice community. The results demonstrate the presence of a diverse microbial community dominated by cyanobacteria in the lake ice, and also show that the dominant members of the lake ice microbial community are found in terrestrial mats elsewhere in the area. The lake ice microbial community appears to be dominated by organisms that are not uniquely adapted to the lake ice ecosystem, but instead are species that originate elsewhere in the surrounding region and opportunistically colonize the unusual habitat provided by the sediments suspended in lake ice. PMID:12035096

  4. A decade of progress in observing and modelling Antarctic subglacial water systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fricker, Helen A; Siegfried, Matthew R; Carter, Sasha P; Scambos, Ted A

    2016-01-28

    In the decade since the discovery of active Antarctic subglacial water systems by detection of subtle surface displacements, much progress has been made in our understanding of these dynamic systems. Here, we present some of the key results of observations derived from ICESat laser altimetry, CryoSat-2 radar altimetry, Operation IceBridge airborne laser altimetry, satellite image differencing and ground-based continuous Global Positioning System (GPS) experiments deployed in hydrologically active regions. These observations provide us with an increased understanding of various lake systems in Antarctica: Whillans/Mercer Ice Streams, Crane Glacier, Recovery Ice Stream, Byrd Glacier and eastern Wilkes Land. In several cases, subglacial water systems are shown to control ice flux through the glacier system. For some lake systems, we have been able to construct more than a decade of continuous lake activity, revealing internal variability on time scales ranging from days to years. This variability indicates that continuous, accurate time series of altimetry data are critical to understanding these systems. On Whillans Ice Stream, our results from a 5-year continuous GPS record demonstrate that subglacial lake flood events significantly change the regional ice dynamics. We also show how models for subglacial water flow have evolved since the availability of observations of lake volume change, from regional-scale models of water routeing to process models of channels carved into the subglacial sediment instead of the overlying ice. We show that progress in understanding the processes governing lake drainage now allows us to create simulated lake volume time series that reproduce time series from satellite observations. This transformational decade in Antarctic subglacial water research has moved us significantly closer to understanding the processes of water transfer sufficiently for inclusion in continental-scale ice-sheet models. PMID:26667904

  5. A decade of progress in observing and modelling Antarctic subglacial water systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fricker, Helen A; Siegfried, Matthew R; Carter, Sasha P; Scambos, Ted A

    2016-01-28

    In the decade since the discovery of active Antarctic subglacial water systems by detection of subtle surface displacements, much progress has been made in our understanding of these dynamic systems. Here, we present some of the key results of observations derived from ICESat laser altimetry, CryoSat-2 radar altimetry, Operation IceBridge airborne laser altimetry, satellite image differencing and ground-based continuous Global Positioning System (GPS) experiments deployed in hydrologically active regions. These observations provide us with an increased understanding of various lake systems in Antarctica: Whillans/Mercer Ice Streams, Crane Glacier, Recovery Ice Stream, Byrd Glacier and eastern Wilkes Land. In several cases, subglacial water systems are shown to control ice flux through the glacier system. For some lake systems, we have been able to construct more than a decade of continuous lake activity, revealing internal variability on time scales ranging from days to years. This variability indicates that continuous, accurate time series of altimetry data are critical to understanding these systems. On Whillans Ice Stream, our results from a 5-year continuous GPS record demonstrate that subglacial lake flood events significantly change the regional ice dynamics. We also show how models for subglacial water flow have evolved since the availability of observations of lake volume change, from regional-scale models of water routeing to process models of channels carved into the subglacial sediment instead of the overlying ice. We show that progress in understanding the processes governing lake drainage now allows us to create simulated lake volume time series that reproduce time series from satellite observations. This transformational decade in Antarctic subglacial water research has moved us significantly closer to understanding the processes of water transfer sufficiently for inclusion in continental-scale ice-sheet models.

  6. Maneuver simulation model of an experimental hovercraft for the Antarctic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murao, Rinichi

    Results of an investigation of a hovercraft model designed for Antarctic conditions are presented. The buoyancy characteristics, the propellant control system, and simulation model control are examined. An ACV (air cushion vehicle) model of the hovercraft is used to examine the flexibility and friction of the skirt. Simulation results are presented which show the performance of the hovercraft.

  7. The South Atlantic in the Fine-Resolution Antarctic Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. P. Stevens

    Full Text Available The geographical area covered by the Fine-Resolution Antarctic Model (FRAM includes that part of the South Atlantic south of 24°S. A description of the dynamics and thermodynamics of this region of the model is presented. Both the mean and eddy fields in the model are in good agreement with reality, although the magnitude of the transients is somewhat reduced. The heat flux is northward and in broad agreement with many other estimates. Agulhas eddies are formed by the model and propagate westward into the Atlantic providing a mechanism for fluxing heat from the Indian Ocean. The confluence of the Brazil and Falkland currents produces a strong front and a large amount of mesoscale activity. In the less stratified regions to the south, topographic steering of the Antarctic circumpolar current is important.

  8. Lake Michigan lake trout PCB model forecast post audit

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scenario forecasts for total PCBs in Lake Michigan (LM) lake trout were conducted using the linked LM2-Toxics and LM Food Chain models, supported by a suite of additional LM models. Efforts were conducted under the Lake Michigan Mass Balance Study and the post audit represents th...

  9. Reevaluation of lake trout and lake whitefish bioenergetics models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madenjian, Charles P.; Pothoven, Steve A.; Kao, Yu-Chun

    2013-01-01

    Using a corrected algorithm for balancing the energy budget, we reevaluated the Wisconsin bioenergetics model for lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) in the laboratory and for lake whitefish (Coregonus clupeaformis) in the laboratory and in the field. For lake trout, results showed that the bioenergetics model slightly overestimated food consumption by the lake trout when they were fed low and intermediate rations, whereas the model predicted food consumption by lake trout fed ad libitum without any detectable bias. The slight bias in model predictions for lake trout on restricted rations may have been an artifact of the feeding schedule for these fish, and we would therefore recommend application of the Wisconsin lake trout bioenergetics model to lake trout populations in the field without any revisions to the model. Use of the Wisconsin bioenergetics model for coregonids resulted in overestimation of food consumption by lake whitefish both in the laboratory and in the field by between 20 and 30%, on average. This overestimation of food consumption was most likely due to overestimation of respiration rate. We therefore adjusted the respiration component of the bioenergetics model to obtain a good fit to the observed consumption in our laboratory tanks. The adjusted model predicted the consumption in the laboratory and the field without any detectable bias. Until a detailed lake whitefish respiration study can be conducted, we recommend application of our adjusted version of the Wisconsin generalized coregonid bioenergetics model to lake whitefish populations in the field.

  10. Cascading water underneath Wilkes Land, East Antarctic Ice Sheet, observed using altimetry and digital elevation models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Flament

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available We describe a major subglacial lake drainage close to the ice divide in Wilkes Land, East Antarctica, and the subsequent cascading of water underneath the ice sheet toward the coast. To analyze the event, we combined altimetry data from several sources and bedrock data. We estimated the total volume of water that drained from Lake CookE2 by differencing digital elevation models (DEM derived from ASTER and SPOT5 stereo-imagery. With 5.2 ± 0.5 km3, this is the largest single subglacial drainage event reported so far in Antarctica. Elevation differences between ICESat laser altimetry and the SPOT5 DEM indicate that the discharge lasted approximately 2 yr. A 13-m uplift of the surface, corresponding to a refilling of about 0.64 ± 0.32 km3, was observed between the end of the discharge in October 2008 and February 2012. Using Envisat radar altimetry, with its high 35-day temporal resolution, we monitored the subsequent filling and drainage of connected subglacial lakes located downstream. In particular, a transient temporal signal can be detected within the theoretical 500-km long flow paths computed with the BEDMAP2 data set. The volume of water traveling in this wave is in agreement with the volume that drained from Lake CookE2. These observations contribute to a better understanding of the water transport beneath the East Antarctic ice sheet.

  11. Boundary conditions of an active West Antarctic subglacial lake: implications for storage of water beneath the ice sheet

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. J. Siegert

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Repeat-pass IceSat altimetry has revealed 124 discrete surface height changes across the Antarctic Ice Sheet, interpreted to be caused by subglacial lake discharges (surface lowering and inputs (surface uplift. Few of these active lakes have been confirmed by radio-echo sounding (RES despite several attempts (notable exceptions are Lake Whillans and three in the Adventure Subglacial Trench. Here we present targeted RES and radar altimeter data from an "active lake" location within the upstream Institute Ice Stream, into which 0.12 km3 of water is calculated to have flowed between October 2003 and February 2008. We use a series of transects to establish an accurate appreciation of the influences of bed topography and ice-surface elevation on water storage potential. The location of surface height change is over the downslope flank of a distinct topographic hollow, where RES reveals no obvious evidence for deep (> 10 m water. The regional hydropotential reveals a sink coincident with the surface change, however. Governed by the location of the hydrological sink, basal water will likely "drape" over existing topography in a manner dissimilar to subglacial lakes where flat strong specular RES reflections are measured. The inability of RES to detect the active lake means that more of the Antarctic ice sheet bed may contain stored water than is currently appreciated. Variation in ice surface elevation datasets leads to significant alteration in calculations of the local flow of basal water indicating the value of, and need for, high resolution RES datasets in both space and time to establish and characterise subglacial hydrological processes.

  12. A lacustrine GDGT-temperature calibration from the Scandinavian Arctic to Antarctic: Renewed potential for the application of GDGT-paleothermometry in lakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pearson, Emma J.; Juggins, Steve; Talbot, Helen M.; Weckström, Jan; Rosén, Peter; Ryves, David B.; Roberts, Stephen J.; Schmidt, Roland

    2011-10-01

    Quantitative climate reconstructions are fundamental to understand long-term trends in natural climate variability and to test climate models used to predict future climate change. Recent advances in molecular geochemistry have led to calibrations using glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers (GDGTs), a group of temperature-sensitive membrane lipids found in Archaea and bacteria. GDGTs have been used to construct temperature indices for oceans (TEX 86 index) and soils (MBT/CBT index). The aim of this study is to examine GDGT-temperature relationships and assess the potential of constructing a GDGT-based palaeo-thermometer for lakes. We examine GDGT-temperature relationships using core top sediments from 90 lakes across a north-south transect from the Scandinavian Arctic to Antarctica including sites from Finland, Sweden, Siberia, the UK, Austria, Turkey, Ethiopia, Uganda, Chile, South Georgia and the Antarctic Peninsula. We examine a suite of 15 GDGTs, including compounds used in the TEX 86 and MBT/CBT indices and reflecting the broad range of GDGT inputs to small lake systems. GDGTs are present in varying proportions in all lakes examined. The TEX 86 index is not applicable to our sites because of the large relative proportions of soil derived and methanogenic components. Similarly, the MBT/CBT index is also not applicable and predicts temperatures considerably lower than those measured. We examine relationships between individual GDGT compounds and temperature, pH, conductivity and water depth. Temperature accounts for a large and statistically independent fraction of variation in branched GDGT composition. We propose a GDGT-temperature regression model with high accuracy and precision ( R2 = 0.88; RMSE = 2.0 °C; RMSEP = 2.1 °C) for use in lakes based on a subset of branched GDGT compounds and highlight the potential of this new method for reconstructing past temperatures using lake sediments.

  13. Comparative Results of Using Different Methods for Discovery of Microorganisms in very Ancient Layers of the Central Antarctic Glacier above the Lake Vostok

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abyzov, S. S.; Hoover, R. B.; Imura, S.; Mitskevich, I. N.; Naganuma, T.; Poglazova, M. N.; Ivanov, M. V.

    2002-01-01

    The ice sheet of the Central Antarctic is considered by the scientific community worldwide, as a model to elaborate on different methods to search for life outside Earth. This became especially significant in connection with the discovery of the underglacial lake in the vicinity of the Russian Antarctic Station Vostok. Lake Vostok is considered by many scientists as an analog of the ice covered seas of Jupiter's satellite Europa. According to the opinion of many researchers there is the possibility that relict forms of microorganisms, well preserved since the Ice Age, may be present in this lake. Investigations throughout the thickness of the ice sheet above Lake Vostok show the presence of microorganisms belonging to different well-known taxonomic groups, even in the very ancient horizons near close to floor of the glacier. Different methods were used to search for microorganisms that are rarely found in the deep ancient layers of an ice sheet. The method of aseptic sampling from the ice cores and the results of controlled sterile conditions in all stages when conducting these investigations, are described in detail in previous reports. Primary investigations tried the usual methods of sowing samples onto different nutrient media, and the result was that only a few microorganisms grew on the media used. The possibility of isolating the organisms obtained for further investigations, by using modern methods including DNA-analysis, appears to be the preferred method. Further investigations of the very ancient layers of the ice sheet by radioisotopic, luminescence, and scanning electron microscopy methods at different modifications, revealed the quantity and morphological diversity of the cells of microorganisms that were distributed on the different horizons. Investigations over many years have shown that the microflora in the very ancient strata of the Antarctic ice cover, nearest to the bedrock, support the effectiveness of using a combination of different methods

  14. Summer season variability of dissolved oxygen concentration in Antarctic lakes rich in cyanobaterial mats

    OpenAIRE

    Váczi Peter; Barták Miloš

    2011-01-01

    Since 2007, limnological investigation of terrestrial lakes has been carried out at James Ross Island, Antarctica. The lakes in scope differ in their size, origin, geomorphological and hydrological characteristics. In several selected lakes, dissolved oxygen is measured repeatedly each summer season in order to quantify lake- and weather-related differences. For this study, typical reresentatives of (i) coastal shalow lakes, and (ii) high-altitude lakes with cyanobacterial mats were chosen. W...

  15. A model of the Antarctic Ice Sheet

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oerlemans, J.

    1982-01-01

    Numerical modelling of ice sheets and glaciers has become a useful tool in glaciological research. A model described here deals with the vertical mean ice velocity, is time dependent, computes bedrock adjustment and uses an empirical diagnostic relationship to derive the distribution of ice thicknes

  16. Antarctic clouds

    OpenAIRE

    Lachlan-Cope, Tom

    2010-01-01

    Sensitivity studies with global climate models show that, by their influence on the radiation balance, Antarctic clouds play a major role in the climate system, both directly at high southern latitudes and indirectly globally, as the local circulation changes lead to global teleconnections. Unfortunately, observations of cloud distribution in the Antarctic are limited and often of low quality because of the practical difficulty in observing clouds in the harsh Antarctic environment. The best ...

  17. Organo-mineral imprints in fossil cyanobacterial mats of an Antarctic lake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Javaux, E.; Lepot, K.; Deremiens, L.; Namsaraev, Z.; Compere, P.; Gerard, E.; Verleyen, E.; Tavernier, I.; Hodgson, D.; Vyverman, W.; Wilmotte, A.

    2010-12-01

    Lacustrine microbial mats in Antarctic ice-free oases are considered to be modern analogues of early microbial ecosystems because they are dominated by cyanobacteria that need to cope with elevated UV radiation during summer by producing protective compounds such as UV-screening pigments. These microbial consortia offer a unique opportunity to (i) identify biogeochemical signatures to study the fossil record of microorganisms, and (ii) better understand their imprint mineral record. We studied sediment cores from a meromictic brackish-water lake, Kobachi Ike, Skarvsnes Peninsula, Lützow Holm Bay, East Antarctica, where primary production is dominated by photosynthetic benthic communities. The faintly to finely laminated (stromatolitic) sediments include variable amounts of organic-rich laminae, micritic carbonate, clays and silicate sand. We studied the microstructure and chemistry of organo-mineral associations in a suite of sediments ranging in age from several tens to ca. 3500 years. We examined Os- and U- stained polished resin-embedded sediments in a scanning electron microscope (SEM). We imaged photosynthetic pigments of microorganisms in fluorescence by confocal laser scanning microscopy (CLSM). We analyzed organic matter chemistry in demineralized sediments and cultured cyanobacteria using Fourier-Transform Infrared (FTIR) spectromicroscopy. Molecular analyses of fossil cyanobacterial DNA were performed using Denaturating Gradient Gel Electrophoresis of partial 16S rRNA genes and sequencing. SEM revealed an intimate association between nanostructured Ca-carbonate peloids, fossil cell clusters resembling colonies of unicellular coccoid cyanobacteria, and cell-like imprints preserved in nanocarbonates. Diffuse organic matter (kerogen or EPS) is associated with nanoclays to form a laminae-building network around the carbonates. These organo-mineral microstructures strongly resemble those of the 2.7 Gyrs old Tumbiana stromatolites. CLSM imaging and fossil DNA

  18. Mathematical Modelling of Melt Lake Formation On An Ice Shelf

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buzzard, Sammie; Feltham, Daniel; Flocco, Daniela

    2016-04-01

    The accumulation of surface meltwater on ice shelves can lead to the formation of melt lakes. These structures have been implicated in crevasse propagation and ice-shelf collapse; the Larsen B ice shelf was observed to have a large amount of melt lakes present on its surface just before its collapse in 2002. Through modelling the transport of heat through the surface of the Larsen C ice shelf, where melt lakes have also been observed, this work aims to provide new insights into the ways in which melt lakes are forming and the effect that meltwater filling crevasses on the ice shelf will have. This will enable an assessment of the role of meltwater in triggering ice-shelf collapse. The Antarctic Peninsula, where Larsen C is situated, has warmed several times the global average over the last century and this ice shelf has been suggested as a candidate for becoming fully saturated with meltwater by the end of the current century. Here we present results of a 1-D mathematical model of heat transfer through an idealized ice shelf. When forced with automatic weather station data from Larsen C, surface melting and the subsequent meltwater accumulation, melt lake development and refreezing are demonstrated through the modelled results. Furthermore, the effect of lateral meltwater transport upon melt lakes and the effect of the lakes upon the surface energy balance are examined. Investigating the role of meltwater in ice-shelf stability is key as collapse can affect ocean circulation and temperature, and cause a loss of habitat. Additionally, it can cause a loss of the buttressing effect that ice shelves can have on their tributary glaciers, thus allowing the glaciers to accelerate, contributing to sea-level rise.

  19. Antarctic ice volume for the last 740 ka calculated with a simple ice sheet model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oerlemans, J.

    2005-01-01

    Fluctuations in the volume of the Antarctic ice sheet for the last 740 ka are calculated by forcing a simple ice sheet model with a sea-level history (from a composite deep sea δ18O record) and a temperature history (from the Dome C deuterium record). Antarctic ice volume reaches maximum values of a

  20. Study of the Microbial Diversity of a Newly Discovered East Antarctic Freshwater Lake, L27C, and of a Perennially Ice-Covered Lake Untersee

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Jonathan P.; Hoover, Richard B.; Andersen, Dale; Bej, Asim K.

    2010-01-01

    The microbial communities that reside within freshwater lakes of Schirmacher and Untersee Oases in East Antarctica must cope with extreme conditions that may include cold temperature, annual freeze-thaw cycles, exposure to UV radiation, especially during the austral summer months, low light beneath thick ice-cover, followed by seasonal darkness. The objective of this study was to assess the microbial biodiversity and distribution from samples taken from two freshwater lakes (L27C and Lake Untersee) that were collected during the Tawani 2008 International Antarctic Expedition that conducted research in this region of Antarctica. L27C is a small, previously unreported lake residing 2 km WNW of Maitri Station at Schirmacher Oasis. Biodiversity and distribution of microorganisms within the lake were studied using both culture-independent and culture-dependent methodologies based upon the analysis of eubacterial 16S rRNA gene sequences. Lake Untersee, a perennially ice-covered, ultra-oligotrophic, lake in the Otto-von-Gruber-Gebirge (Gruber Mountains) of central Dronning Maud Land was also sampled and the microbial diversity was analyzed by eubacterial 16S rRNA gene sequences derived from pure cultures. Direct culturing of water samples from each lake on separate R2A growth medium exhibited a variety of microorganisms including: Janthinobacterium, Hymenobacter, Sphingamonas, Subtercola, Deinococcus, Arthrobacter, Flavobacterium, Polaromonas, Rhodoferax and Duganella. The evaluation of samples from L27C through culture-independent methodology identified a rich microbial diversity consisting of six different phyla of bacteria. The culture-independent analysis also displayed the majority of bacteria (56%) belonged to the Class gamma-proteobacteria within the phylum Proteobacteria. Within the Class gamma-proteobacteria, Acinetobacter dominated (48%) the total microbial load. Overall, L27C exhibited 7 different phyla of bacteria and 20 different genera. Statistical analysis

  1. Elevation Changes Over Large Antarctic Subglacial Lakes From ICESat Repeat Altimetry 2003-2008

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shuman, C.; Studinger, M.; Bell, R. E.; Suchdeo, V. P.

    2008-12-01

    Antarctica's recently described Recovery Lakes group (Bell et al., 2007, lakes A-D, about 13,300 km2) and well-known Lake Vostok (15,690 km2) are crossed by numerous Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) altimetry profiles. Since those laser measurements began in 2003, more than 13 repeats of each profile have been completed, and preliminary elevation change results from ICESat are available. Because of Lake Vostok's overall size and the Recovery Lakes relationship to the acceleration of ice into East Antarctica's Recovery Ice Stream, analyses of lake levels have immediate relevance to broader ice sheet stability assessments. Our study uses ICESat crossovers to assess elevation changes across these two subglacial lake sites to compensate for inexact repeat profiles that cross the subglacial lake topography at varying locations and angles. Lake Vostok's relative stability, documented by a multi-year GPS network around Vostok Station (Richter et al., 2008), makes it an excellent target for assessing repeat altimetry accuracy; ICESat results are compatible with the GPS network results but reveal the difficulty in determining an elevation time series with cm-level accuracy. Recovery Lake A appears to be rising, about 5 cm over 2004-2007, whereas Lake B shows no clear pattern with respect to off lake elevations. Recovery Lakes C and D are also currently being evaluated in preparation for Norway-US IPY traverse and planned airborne geophysical surveys by British and US teams. Updated ICESat elevation time series results will be available prior to IPY fieldwork initiation. Bell, R.E., M. Studinger, C.A. Shuman, M.A. Fahnestock, and I. Joughin, (2007), Large subglacial lakes in East Antarctica at the onset of fast-flowing ice streams, Nature, vol. 445, pp. 904-907, doi:10.1038/nature05554 Richter, A., S. Popov, R. Dietrich, V. Lukin, M. Fritsche, V. Y. Lipenkov, A. Matveev, J. Wendt, A. Yuskevich, and V. Masolov (2008), Observational evidence on the stability

  2. A 50-years record of dichloro-diphenyl-trichloroethanes and hexachloro-cyclohexanes in lake sediments and penguin droppings on King George Island,Maritime Antarctic

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    SUN Li-guang; YIN Xue-bin; PAN Can-ping; WANG Yu-hong

    2005-01-01

    Since the ban on the use of organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) such as dichloro-diphenyl-trichloroethane (DDT) and hexachlorocyclohexane(HCH) in agriculture, their levels have generally dropped. In a number of cases, however, the levels of these OCPs were found to be unchanging or even increasing after the ban. With the aim to unveil the possible causes of these exceptions, we collected two lake cores from King George Island, West Antarctica, and determined their accumulation flux profiles and temporal trends of these OCPs. In the lake core sediments with glacier meltwater input, the accumulation flux of DDT shows an abnormal peak around 1980s in addition to the expected one in 1960s. In the lake core sediments without glacier meltwater input, the accumulation flux of DDT shows a gradual decline trend after the peak in 1960s. This striking difference in the DDT flux profiles between the two lake cores is most likely caused by the regional climate warming and the resulted discharge of the DDT stored in the Antarctic ice cap into the lakes in the Antarctic glacier frontier. Furthermore, to investigate the change of OCPs loadings in the Antarctic coastal ecosystem, we reconstructed the HCH and DDT concentration profiles in penguin droppings and observed a gradual increase for the former and a continuous decrease for the latter during the past 50 years. The increase of HCH seems to be due to the regional warming from the early 1970s and the resulted HCH discharge to the coastal ecosystem by glaciers, meltwater and the illegal use of HCH in the Southern Hemisphere in the recent decade.The different temporal trends of HCH and DDT accumulation rate in the lake core with glacier meltwater input and the aged penguin droppings can be explained by their different water-soluble property.

  3. Dissolved black carbon in Antarctic lakes: Chemical signatures of past and present sources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khan, Alia L.; Jaffé, Rudolf; Ding, Yan; McKnight, Diane M.

    2016-06-01

    The perennially ice-covered, closed-basin lakes in the McMurdo Dry Valleys, Antarctica, serve as sentinels for understanding the fate of dissolved black carbon from glacial sources in aquatic ecosystems. Here we show that dissolved black carbon can persist in freshwater and saline surface waters for thousands of years, while preserving the chemical signature of the original source materials. The ancient brines of the lake bottom waters have retained dissolved black carbon with a woody chemical signature, representing long-range transport of black carbon from wildfires. In contrast, the surface waters are enriched in contemporary black carbon from fossil fuel combustion. Comparison of samples collected 25 years apart from the same lake suggests that the enrichment in anthropogenic black carbon is recent. Differences in the chemical composition of dissolved black carbon among the lakes are likely due to biogeochemical processing such as photochemical degradation and sorption on metal oxides.

  4. Evaluation of a lake whitefish bioenergetics model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madenjian, Charles P.; O'Connor, Daniel V.; Pothoven, Steven A.; Schneeberger, Philip J.; Rediske, Richard R.; O'Keefe, James P.; Bergstedt, Roger A.; Argyle, Ray L.; Brandt, Stephen B.

    2006-01-01

    We evaluated the Wisconsin bioenergetics model for lake whitefish Coregonus clupeaformis in the laboratory and in the field. For the laboratory evaluation, lake whitefish were fed rainbow smelt Osmerus mordax in four laboratory tanks during a 133-d experiment. Based on a comparison of bioenergetics model predictions of lake whitefish food consumption and growth with observed consumption and growth, we concluded that the bioenergetics model furnished significantly biased estimates of both food consumption and growth. On average, the model overestimated consumption by 61% and underestimated growth by 16%. The source of the bias was probably an overestimation of the respiration rate. We therefore adjusted the respiration component of the bioenergetics model to obtain a good fit of the model to the observed consumption and growth in our laboratory tanks. Based on the adjusted model, predictions of food consumption over the 133-d period fell within 5% of observed consumption in three of the four tanks and within 9% of observed consumption in the remaining tank. We used polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) as a tracer to evaluate model performance in the field. Based on our laboratory experiment, the efficiency with which lake whitefish retained PCBs from their food (I?) was estimated at 0.45. We applied the bioenergetics model to Lake Michigan lake whitefish and then used PCB determinations of both lake whitefish and their prey from Lake Michigan to estimate p in the field. Application of the original model to Lake Michigan lake whitefish yielded a field estimate of 0.28, implying that the original formulation of the model overestimated consumption in Lake Michigan by 61%. Application of the bioenergetics model with the adjusted respiration component resulted in a field I? estimate of 0.56, implying that this revised model underestimated consumption by 20%.

  5. Viable Bacteria in Antarctic Soils and - Two Models for Extraterrestrial Search of Life

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soina, Vera; Vorobyova, Elena; Lysak, Ludmila; Mergelov, Nikita

    Antarctic soils and permafrost are the most convenient models for search life preservation in extraterrestrial cryogenic environment. Study of life activity and preservation of prokaryotes in such extreme environment allow assuming, that those habitats must be viewed as two models for astrobiology extrapolations. Antarctic permafrost due to long term freezing can be regarded as the most stable environment for life preservation and expanding of potential physiological cell activity due to stabilization of cell structures and biomolecules. Antarctic soils seem to be not less attractive as a model for study of life on the surface of Antarctic rocks, but in contrast to permafrost are characterized by less stable external factors. Presumably, it is due to changing cycles of freezing and thawing and high doses of UV radiation, that make such biotopes more extreme for microbial survival. A combination of culture- depended and - independent techniques, including SEM and TEM methods were used to characterize bacteria community in earlier not investigated Antarctic soils in the oases of Larsemann Hills (East Antarctic Coast). Several important characteristics of Antarctic soil and permafrost bacteria as models for possible signs of life in extraterrestrial habitats are discussed (cytomorphological and physiological characteristics of bacteria both in situ, and cells isolated from permafrost and exposed to various external stress factors). Our data indicate that significant discrepancy between indexes of total and viable number of cells and irregularity of such indexes in horizons of developing soils and permafrost sediments can be explained by specification of physical and chemical processes in those habitats. Also, in Antarctic and extraterrestrial investigations is important to take into account the leading role of microbial biofilms, where microorganisms are intimately associated with each other and mineral particles through binding and inclusion within exopolymer matrix

  6. Model decay in the Australia-Antarctic basin

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Weijer, Wilbert [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Gille, Sarah T [UCSD; Vivier, Frederic [LOCEAN-IPSL

    2008-01-01

    The barotropic intraseasonal variability in the Australia-Antarctic Basin (AAB) is studied in terms of the excitation and decay of topographically-trapped barotropic modes. The main objective is to reconcile two widely differing estimates of the decay rate of SSH anomalies in the AAB that are assumed to be related to barotropic modes. First, an Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis is applied to almost 15 years of altimeter data. The analysis suggests that several modes are involved in the variability of the AAB, each related to distinct areas with (almost) closed contours of potential vorticity. Second, the dominant normal modes of the AAB are determined in a barotropic shallow-water (SW) model. These stationary modes are confined by the closed contours of potential vorticity that surround the eastern AAB, and the crest of the Southeast Indian Ridge. For reasonable values of horizontal eddy viscosity and bottom friction, their decay time scale is of the order of several weeks. Third, the SW model is forced with realistic winds and integrated for several years. Projection of the modal velocity patterns onto the output fields shows that the barotropic modes are indeed excited in the model, and that they decay slowly on the frictional O(3 weeks) time scale. However, the SSH anomalies in the modal areas display rapid O(4 days) decay. Additional analysis shows that this rapid decay reflects the adjustment of unbalanced flow components through the emission of Rossby waves. Resonant excitation of the dominant free modes accounts for about 20% of the SSH variability in the forced model run. Other mechanisms are suggested to explain the region of high SSH variability in the AAB.

  7. Post Audit of Lake Michigan Lake Trout PCB Model Forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Lake Michigan (LM) Mass Balance Study was conducted to measure and model polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and other anthropogenic substances to gain a better understanding of the transport, fate, and effects of these substances within the system and to aid managers in the env...

  8. Co-evolution of cyanophage and cyanobacteria in Antarctic lakes: adaptive responses to high UV flux and global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Storrie-Lombardi, Michael C.; Pinkart, Holly C.

    2007-09-01

    Rapid adaptation to acute environmental change demands co-evolution of indigenous viral populations and their hosts. Horizontal gene transfer (HGT) is a highly efficient adaptive mechanism, but a difficult phenomena to dectect. The mosaic nature of bacteriophage genomes resulting from HGT has generally been explored using phylogenetic analysis of coding regions. Focusing on the proteome certainly provides one window into the origin and evolution of genome information storage. However, the original fitness function for a nucleotide polymer would arise from a more primal survival imperative predating the appearance of a coding function. Multivariate analysis of a genome information storage metric (lossless compression), nucleotide distributions, and distributions of the three major physiochemical characteristics of the polymer (triple:double bonding [G+C], purine:pyrimidine [G+A], and keto:amine [G+T] fractions) produces a metric to detect and characterize mosaicism in both coding and non-coding regions of a genome. We discuss possibilities and limitations of using these techniques to investigate HGT and the origins and evolution of genome complexity. Analysis of available virus (n= 2374) and bacteriophage genomes (n=417) indicates these probes can perform whole-genome taxonomy tasks or sliding window searches for evidence of HGT in a single genome. HGT responses may serve as a canary or bell-weather for global environmental change. We discuss one area of application of considerable interest to our institute: the response of cyanophage and their cyanobacteria hosts to variations in ultraviolet solar flux in geographically isolated Antarctic lakes.

  9. Lake Evaporation: A Model Study

    OpenAIRE

    Amayreh, Jumah

    1995-01-01

    Reliable evaporation data are an essential requirement in any water and/or energy budget studies. This includes operation and management of both urban and agricultural water resources. Evaporation from large, open water surfaces such as lakes and reservoirs may influence many agricultural and irrigation decisions. In this study evaporation from Bear Lake in the states of Idaho and Utah was measured using advanced research instruments (Bowen Ratio and Eddy Correlation). Actual over-lake evapor...

  10. Model studies of the effects of global warming and Antarctic sea ice changes on Antarctic and global climates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The authors discuss the results obtained in three experiments by changing the global ocean temperatures and the concentration and distribution of Antarctic sea ice in a General Circulation Model of July climate, with a view to determining the local and global impacts of Antarctic sea ice variations alone, as distinct with those coupled with global scale temperature changes which may be associated with global warming. In all cases there were significant changes in the upward flux of sensible heat over the sea ice zone associated with the reductions of sea ice. The response of weaker westerlies between 40 and 65 degree S was common to all three experiments. Their analyses suggest that a significant proportion of this is a response to the change in sea ice concentration alone. (Not surprisingly, further north of this region most of the changes induced in the wind structure in the global forcing experiment can be seen as due unambiguously to the differential changes in ocean temperatures.). This weakening of the westerlies means there is less mechanical forcing of the ocean in this region. From this they suggest that when consideration is given to the possible impact of feedbacks not considered in these experiments, sea ice changes alone, and particularly those in the Southern Hemisphere, have the potential to induce changes on a hemispheric scale

  11. Firn compaction modelling of the Antarctic ice sheet

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kallenberg, Bianca; Tregoning, Paul

    2013-04-01

    Satellite altimetry missions detect elevation changes in ice sheets that are not only related to variations in ice mass balance, but also to snow densification. The compaction of snow induces a change in thickness but not in mass and therefore has to be removed from the altimetry measurements when estimating mass loss from height changes. The densification of snow is time dependent and varies with temperature, accumulation rate and depth. Different types of densification processes occur in Antarctica due to the climatic differences from warm and moist coastal areas to a cold and dry desert in the Antarctic interior. The intermediate product between snow and ice is called firn and the transition from snow to ice is a slow process that can take up to millennia in some areas. During the compression snow grains undergo different stages with a density change from around 300 kg/m3 for fresh snow to around 900 kg/m3 for glacier ice. The change in density with temperature and depth is not well known and can only be compared with some snow pits that have been taken at a few locations in Antarctica, thus the density profile is of great importance. The lack of data complicates the generation of an accurate firn compaction model and so far only a few models have been established about expected firn densification processes in Antarctica. We present a time-dependent firn compaction model for Antarctica based on the standard heat-transfer equation after Paterson (1994)* for the temperature profile, and the concept of firn compaction after Zwally & Li (2002)*. By incorporating a time-dependent accumulation rate, our numerical multilayer model considers not only existing snow layers but also freshly deposited accumulation at the surface as a new introduced layer. The initial density profile as been obtained by spinning up the model until the entire firn layer is refreshed. We compare our results with previous firn compaction models and available in-situ measurements of snow pits

  12. MICRO-INVERTEBRATE COMMUNITY STRUCTURE WITHIN A MARITIME ANTARCTIC LAKE (Eleventh Symposium on Polar Biology)

    OpenAIRE

    Sandra J., McINNES; J. Cynan, ELLIS-EVANS

    1990-01-01

    The data set discussed here was obtained from a transect across a depth profile in Sombre Lake (Signy Island, South Orkney Islands). The fauna, composed of benthonic micro-invertebrates, was readily observed grazing on the surface of the cyanobacterial mats that form a thin cover on the surface of the sediments. Algal mat composition varied in response to factors such as light, climate, and ice scour. Micro-invertebrate species diversity was limited, but population numbers were high. The resu...

  13. A new interpretation from geophysical data of the crustal architecture of the East Antarctic craton between Vostok Lake and Adventure Subglacial depression

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cianfarra, Paola; Salvini, Francesco

    2013-04-01

    Numerical modelling of the Earth surface has been extensively used to investigate regional tectonic settings. The East Antarctic Craton (EAC) is a fragment of the Gondwanaland Precambrian shield as confirmed from the sea floor geophysical reconstruction. Despite the progress achieved in the last decades for the understanding of the tectonic evolution of the EAC, our knowledge of the subglacial geology derives from sparse rocks outcrop around the perimeter of the continent since the ice sheet prevents from direct investigations. Since the onset of the East Antactic Ice Sheet (EAIS), the tectonic activity represents the major modelling agent of the subglacial landscape, due to the mostly dry ice cap-bedrock contact preventing any significant erosional or sedimentary episode. Compressional, extensional, transcurrent tectonic styles of deformation produce characteristic morphological signatures. These landscapes were replicated by a series of numerical Hybrid Cellular Automata (HCA) models. The comparison and tuning of these models with the bedrock morphology allowed to constrain the extensional tectonic style responsible for the formation of the subglacial depressions in the huge region between Vostok and Adventure. Results from the numerical modelling suggest the tectonic origin of the Aurora depression, of the Concordia Trough and of the Adventure Subglacial basin. Crustal listric faults with normal displacements of the order of hundreds to thousands of meters created the necessary space beneath the ice cap to develop the present day subglacial morphologies as derived from RES data and their characteristic geophysical signatures. An original and alternative origin is proposed for the Lake Vostok depression based on the re-interpretation of published geophysical data. The integration of the results allows us to speculate on the existence of an intraplate transtensional deformation belt within the EAC since Cenozoic times.

  14. Modeling toxaphene behavior in the Great Lakes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xia, Xiaoyan; Hopke, Philip K; Holsen, Thomas M; Crimmins, Bernard S

    2011-01-15

    Chlorinated camphenes, toxaphene, are persistent organic pollutants of concern in the Great Lakes since elevated concentrations are found in various media throughout the system. While concentrations have decreased since their peak values in the 1970s and 80s, recent measurements have shown that the rate of this decline in Lake Superior has decreased significantly. This modeling study focused on toxaphene cycling in the Great Lakes and was performed primarily to determine if elevated water and fish concentrations in Lake Superior can be explained by physical differences among the lakes. Specifically, the coastal zone model for persistent organic pollutants (CoZMo-POP), a fugacity-based multimedia fate model, was used to calculate toxaphene concentrations in the atmosphere, water, soil, sediment, and biota. The performance of the model was evaluated by comparing calculated and reported concentrations in these compartments. In general, simulated and observed concentrations agree within one order of magnitude. Both model results and observed values indicate that toxaphene concentrations have declined in water and biota since the 1980s primarily as the result of decreased atmospheric deposition rates. Overall the model results suggest that the CoZMo-POP2 model does a reasonable job in simulating toxaphene variations in the Great Lakes basin. The results suggest that the recent findings of higher toxaphene concentrations in Lake Superior can be explained by differences in the physical properties of the lake (primarily large volume, large residence time and cold temperatures) compared to the lower lakes and increased recent inputs are not needed to explain the measured values.

  15. Part 2: Sedimentary geology of the Valles, Marineris, Mars and Antarctic dry valley lakes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Detailed mapping of the layered deposits in the Valles Marineris, Mars from high-resolution Viking orbiter images revealed that they from plateaus of rhythmically layered material whose bases are in the lowest elevations of the canyon floors, and whose tops are within a few hundred meters in elevation of the surrounding plateaus. Four hypotheses for the origin of the layered deposits were considered: that they are eolian deposits; that they are remnants of the same material as the canyon walls; that they are explosive volcanic deposits; or that they were deposited in standing bodies of water. There are serious morphologic objections to each of the first three. The deposition of the layered deposits in standing bodies of water best explains their lateral continuity, horizontality, great thickness, rhythmic nature, and stratigraphic relationships with other units within the canyons. The Martian climatic history indicated that any ancient lakes were ice covered. Two methods for transporting sediment through a cover of ice on a martian lake appear to be feasible. Based on the presently available data, along with the theoretical calculations presented, it appears most likely that the layered deposits in the Valles Marineris were laid down in standing bodies of water

  16. Formulation, calibration and validation of the DAIS model (version 1), a simple Antarctic ice sheet model sensitive to variations of sea level and ocean subsurface temperature

    OpenAIRE

    Shaffer, G.

    2014-01-01

    The DCESS (Danish Center for Earth System Science) Antarctic Ice Sheet (DAIS) model is presented. Model hindcasts of Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) sea level equivalent are forced by reconstructed Antarctic temperatures, global mean sea level and high-latitude, ocean subsurface temperatures, the latter calculated using the DCESS model forced by reconstructed global mean atmospheric temperatures. The model is calibrated by comparing such hindcasts for different model configurations w...

  17. Lysobacter oligotrophicus sp. nov., isolated from an Antarctic freshwater lake in Antarctica.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fukuda, Wakao; Kimura, Tomomi; Araki, Shigeo; Miyoshi, Yuki; Atomi, Haruyuki; Imanaka, Tadayuki

    2013-09-01

    A Gram-stain-negative, non-spore-forming, rod-shaped, aerobic bacterium (strain 107-E2(T)) was isolated from freshwater samples containing microbial mats collected at a lake in Skarvsnes, Antarctica (temporary lake name, Lake Tanago Ike). Strain 107-E2(T) grew between 5 and 25 °C, with an optimum of 23 °C. Moreover, colony formation was observed on agar media even at -5 °C. The pH range for growth was between 6.0 and 9.0, with an optimum of pH 7.0-8.0. The range of NaCl concentration for growth was between 0.0 and 0.5% (w/v), with an optimum of 0.0%. No growth was observed in media containing organic compounds at high concentrations, which indicated that strain 107-E2(T) was an oligotroph. In the late stationary phase, strain 107-E2(T) produced a dark brown water-soluble pigment. Esterase, amylase and protease production was observed. Antimicrobial-lytic activities for Gram-negative bacteria and yeast were observed. Ubiquinone-8 was the major respiratory quinone. The major fatty acids were iso-C15:0, iso-C(17:1)ω9c and iso-C(15:1) at 5. The G+C content of genomic DNA was 66.1 mol%. Analysis of the 16S rRNA gene sequences revealed that strain 107-E2(T) belonged to the genus Lysobacter, and low DNA-DNA relatedness values with closely related species distinguished strain 107-E2(T) from recognized species of the genus Lysobacter. The phylogenetic situation and physiological characteristics indicated that strain 107-E2(T) should be classified as a representative of a novel species of the genus Lysobacter, for which the name Lysobacter oligotrophicus sp. nov. is proposed. The type strain is 107-E2(T) ( =JCM 18257(T) =ATCC BAA-2438(T)).

  18. Antarctic ice volume and deep-sea temperature during the last 50 Myr: a model study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oerlemans, J.

    2004-01-01

    A simple quasi-analytical model is used to study the sensitivity of the Antarctic ice sheet to climate change. The model is axisymmetrical and has a profile that only depends on the ice-sheet radius. The climatic conditions are represented by three parameters: the altitude of the runoff line, the ac

  19. The influence of a model subglacial lake on ice dynamics and internal layering

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Gudlaugsson

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available As ice flows over a subglacial lake, the drop in bed resistance leads to an increase in ice velocities and a subsequent draw-down of isochrones and cold ice from the surface. The ice surface flattens as it adjusts to the lack of resisting forces at the base. The rapid transition in velocity induces changes in temperature and ice viscosity, releasing deformation energy which raises the temperature locally. Recent studies of Antarctic subglacial lakes indicate that many lakes experience very fast and possibly episodic drainage, during which the lake size is rapidly reduced as water flows out. A question is what effect this would have on internal layers within the ice, and whether such past events could be inferred from isochrone structures downstream. Here, we study the effect of a subglacial lake on the dynamics of a model ice stream as well as the influence that such short timescale drainage would have on the internal layers of the ice. To this end, we use a Full–Stokes, polythermal ice flow model. An enthalpy gradient method is used to account for the evolution of temperature and water content within the ice. We find that the rapid transition between slow-moving ice outside the lake, and full sliding over the lake, releases large amounts of deformational energy, which has the potential to form a temperate layer at depth in the transition zone. In addition, we provide an explanation for a characteristic surface feature, commonly seen at the edges of subglacial lakes, a hummocky surface depression in the transition zone between little to full sliding. We also conclude that rapid changes in lake geometry or basal friction create a travelling wave at depth within the isochrone structure that transfers downstream with the advection of ice, thus indicating the possibility of detecting past events with ice penetrating radar.

  20. Response of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to a climatic warming: a model study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oerlemans, J.

    1982-01-01

    It is generally believed that the increasing C02 content of the atmosphere will lead to a substantial climatic warming in the polar regions. In this study the effect of consequent changes in the ice accumulation rate over the Antarctic Ice Sheet is investigated by means of a numerical ice flow model

  1. A model assessment of the ability of lake water in Terra Nova Bay, Antarctica, to induce the photochemical degradation of emerging contaminants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minella, Marco; Maurino, Valter; Minero, Claudio; Vione, Davide

    2016-11-01

    The shallow lakes located in Terra Nova Bay, Antarctica, are free from ice for only up to a couple of months (mid December to early/mid February) during the austral summer. In the rest of the year, the ice cover shields the light and inhibits the photochemical processes in the water columns. Previous work has shown that chromophoric dissolved organic matter (CDOM) in these lakes is very reactive photochemically. A model assessment is here provided of lake-water photoreactivity in field conditions, based on experimental data of lake water absorption spectra, chemistry and photochemistry obtained previously, taking into account the water depth and the irradiation conditions of the Antarctic summer. The chosen sample contaminants were the solar filter benzophenone-3 and the antimicrobial agent triclosan, which have very well known photoreactivity and have been found in a variety of environmental matrices in the Antarctic continent. The two compounds would have a half-life time of just a few days or less in the lake water during the Antarctic summertime, largely due to reaction with CDOM triplet states ((3)CDOM*). In general, pollutants that occur in the ice and could be released to lake water upon ice melting (around or soon after the December solstice) would be quickly photodegraded if they undergo fast reaction with (3)CDOM*. With some compounds, the important (3)CDOM* reactions might favour the production of harmful secondary pollutants, such as 2,8-dichlorodibenzodioxin from the basic (anionic) form of triclosan.

  2. A model assessment of the ability of lake water in Terra Nova Bay, Antarctica, to induce the photochemical degradation of emerging contaminants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minella, Marco; Maurino, Valter; Minero, Claudio; Vione, Davide

    2016-11-01

    The shallow lakes located in Terra Nova Bay, Antarctica, are free from ice for only up to a couple of months (mid December to early/mid February) during the austral summer. In the rest of the year, the ice cover shields the light and inhibits the photochemical processes in the water columns. Previous work has shown that chromophoric dissolved organic matter (CDOM) in these lakes is very reactive photochemically. A model assessment is here provided of lake-water photoreactivity in field conditions, based on experimental data of lake water absorption spectra, chemistry and photochemistry obtained previously, taking into account the water depth and the irradiation conditions of the Antarctic summer. The chosen sample contaminants were the solar filter benzophenone-3 and the antimicrobial agent triclosan, which have very well known photoreactivity and have been found in a variety of environmental matrices in the Antarctic continent. The two compounds would have a half-life time of just a few days or less in the lake water during the Antarctic summertime, largely due to reaction with CDOM triplet states ((3)CDOM*). In general, pollutants that occur in the ice and could be released to lake water upon ice melting (around or soon after the December solstice) would be quickly photodegraded if they undergo fast reaction with (3)CDOM*. With some compounds, the important (3)CDOM* reactions might favour the production of harmful secondary pollutants, such as 2,8-dichlorodibenzodioxin from the basic (anionic) form of triclosan. PMID:27487093

  3. The influence of a model subglacial lake on ice dynamics and internal layering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gudlaugsson, Eythor; Humbert, Angelika; Kleiner, Thomas; Kohler, Jack; Andreassen, Karin

    2016-04-01

    As ice flows over a subglacial lake, the drop in bed resistance leads to an increase in ice velocities and a draw down of isochrones and cold ice. The ice surface flattens as it adjusts to the lack of resisting forces at the base. The rapid transition in velocity induces changes in ice viscosity and releases deformation energy that can raise the temperature locally. Recent studies of Antarctic subglacial lakes indicate that many lakes experience very fast and possibly episodic drainage, during which the lake size is rapidly reduced as water flows out. Questions that arise are what effect this would have on internal layers within the ice and whether such past drainage events could be inferred from isochrone structures downstream. Here, we study the effect of a subglacial lake on ice dynamics as well as the influence that such short timescale drainage would have on the internal layers of the ice. To this end, we use a full Stokes, polythermal ice flow model. An enthalpy-gradient method is used to account for the evolution of temperature and water content within the ice. We find that a rapid transition between slow-moving ice outside the lake, and full sliding over the lake, can release considerable amounts of deformational energy, with the potential to form a temperate layer at depth in the transition zone. In addition, we provide an explanation for a characteristic surface feature commonly seen at the edges of subglacial lakes, a hummocky surface depression in the transition zone between little to full sliding. We also conclude that rapid changes in the horizontal extent of subglacial lakes and slippery patches, compared to the average ice column velocity, can create a traveling wave at depth within the isochrone structure that transfers downstream with the advection of ice, thus indicating the possibility of detecting past drainage events with ice penetrating radar.

  4. Lake Michigan lake trout PCB model forecast post audit (oral presentation)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scenario forecasts for total PCBs in Lake Michigan (LM) lake trout were conducted using the linked LM2-Toxics and LM Food Chain models, supported by a suite of additional LM models. Efforts were conducted under the Lake Michigan Mass Balance Study and the post audit represents an...

  5. Antarctic ice sheet GLIMMER model test and its simplified model on 2-dimensional ice flow

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Xueyuan Tang; Zhanhai Zhang; Bo Sun; Yuansheng Li; Na Li; Bangbing Wang; Xiangpei Zhang

    2008-01-01

    The 3-dimensional finite difference thermodynamic coupled model on Antarctic ice sheet, GLIMMER model, is described. An ide-alized ice sheet numerical test was conducted under the EISMINT-I benchmark, and the characteristic curves of ice sheets under steady state were obtained. Based on this, this model was simplified from a 3-dimensional one to 2-dimensional one. Improvement of the dif-ference method and coordinate system was proposed. Evolution of the 2-dimensional ice flow was simulated under coupled temperature field conditions. The results showed that the characteristic curves deriving from the conservation of the mass, momentum and energy agree with the results of ice sheet profile simulated with GLIMMER model and with the theoretical results. The application prospect of the simplified 2-dimensional ice flow model to simulate the relation of age-depth-accumulation in Dome A region was discussed.

  6. Climate Model Dependency and Understanding the Antarctic Ice Sheet during the Warm Late Pliocene

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dolan, Aisling; de Boer, Bas; Bernales, Jorge; Hunter, Stephen; Haywood, Alan

    2016-04-01

    In the context of future climate change, understanding the nature and behaviour of ice sheets during warm intervals of Earth history is fundamentally important. A warm period in the Late Pliocene (3.264 to 3.025 million years before present) can serve as a potential analogue for projected future climates. Although Pliocene ice locations and extents are still poorly constrained, a significant contribution to sea-level rise should be expected from both the Greenland ice sheet and the West and East Antarctic ice sheets based on palaeo sea-level reconstructions and geological evidence. Following a five year international project PLISMIP (Pliocene Ice Sheet Modeling Intercomparison Project) we present the final set of results which quantify uncertainty in climate model-based predictions of the Antarctic ice sheet. In this study we use an ensemble of climate model forcings within a multi-ice sheet model framework to assess the climate (model) dependency of large scale features of the Antarctic ice sheet. Seven coupled atmosphere-ocean climate models are used to derive surface temperature, precipitation and oceanic forcing that drive three ice sheet models (over the grounded and floating domain). Similar to results presented over Greenland, we show that the reconstruction of the Antarctic ice sheet is sensitive to which climate model is used to provide the forcing field. Key areas of uncertainty include West Antarctica, the large subglacial basins of East Antarctica and the overall thickness of the continental interior of East Antarctica. We relate the results back to geological proxy data, such as those relating to exposure rates which provide information on potential ice sheet thickness. Finally we discuss as to whether the choice of modelling framework (i.e. climate model and ice sheet model used) or the choice of boundary conditions causes the greatest uncertainty in ice sheet reconstructions of the warm Pliocene.

  7. A one-dimensional heat transfer model of the Antarctic Ice Sheet and modeling of snow temperatures at Dome A, the summit of Antarctic Plateau

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2010-01-01

    A vertical one-dimensional numerical model for heat transferring within the near-surface snow layer of the Antarctic Ice Sheet was developed based on simplified parameterizations of associated physical processes for the atmosphere, radiation, and snow/ice systems. Using the meteorological data of an automatic weather station (AWS) at Dome A (80°22′S, 70°22′E), we applied the model to simulate the seasonal temperature variation within a depth of 20 m. Comparison of modeled results with observed snow temperatures at 4 measurement depths (0.1, 1, 3, 10 m) shows good agreement and consistent seasonal variations. The model results reveal the vertical temperature structure within the near-surface snow layer and its seasonal variance with more details than those by limited measurements. Analyses on the model outputs of the surface energy fluxes show that: 1) the surface energy balance at Dome A is characterized by the compensation between negative net radiation and the positive sensible fluxes, and 2) the sensible heat is on average transported from the atmosphere to the snow, and has an evident increase in spring. The results are considered well representative for the highest interior Antarctic Plateau.

  8. Large-scale distribution analysis of Antarctic echinoids using ecological niche modelling

    OpenAIRE

    Pierrat, B.; Saucede, T.; Laffont, R.; De Ridder, C.; Festeau, A.; David, B.

    2012-01-01

    Understanding the factors that determine the distribution of taxa at various spatial scales is a crucial challenge in the context of global climate change. This holds particularly true for polar marine biota that are composed of both highly adapted and vulnerable faunas. We analysed the distribution of 2 Antarctic echinoid species, Sterechinus antarcticus and S. neumayeri, at the scale of the entire Southern Ocean using 2 niche modelling procedures. The performance of distribution models was ...

  9. Evaluating Antarctic sea ice predictability at seasonal to interannual timescales in global climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marchi, Sylvain; Fichefet, Thierry; Goosse, Hugues; Zunz, Violette; Tietsche, Steffen; Day, Jonny; Hawkins, Ed

    2016-04-01

    Unlike the rapid sea ice losses reported in the Arctic, satellite observations show an overall increase in Antarctic sea ice extent over recent decades. Although many processes have already been suggested to explain this positive trend, it remains the subject of current investigations. Understanding the evolution of the Antarctic sea ice turns out to be more complicated than for the Arctic for two reasons: the lack of observations and the well-known biases of climate models in the Southern Ocean. Irrespective of those issues, another one is to determine whether the positive trend in sea ice extent would have been predictable if adequate observations and models were available some decades ago. This study of Antarctic sea ice predictability is carried out using 6 global climate models (HadGEM1.2, MPI-ESM-LR, GFDL CM3, EC-Earth V2, MIROC 5.2 and ECHAM 6-FESOM) which are all part of the APPOSITE project. These models are used to perform hindcast simulations in a perfect model approach. The predictive skill is estimated thanks to the PPP (Potential Prognostic Predictability) and the ACC (Anomaly Correlation Coefficient). The former is a measure of the uncertainty of the ensemble while the latter assesses the accuracy of the prediction. These two indicators are applied to different variables related to sea ice, in particular the total sea ice extent and the ice edge location. This first model intercomparison study about sea ice predictability in the Southern Ocean aims at giving a general overview of Antarctic sea ice predictability in current global climate models.

  10. Preliminary evaluation of a lake whitefish (Coregonus clupeaformis) bioenergetics model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madenjian, Charles P.; Pothoven, Steven A.; Schneeberger, Philip J.; O'Connor, Daniel V.; Brandt, Stephen B.

    2005-01-01

    We conducted a preliminary evaluation of a lake whitefish (Coregonus clupeaformis) bioenergetics model by applying the model to size-at-age data for lake whitefish from northern Lake Michigan. We then compared estimates of gross growth efficiency (GGE) from our bioenergetis model with previously published estimates of GGE for bloater (C. hoyi) in Lake Michigan and for lake whitefish in Quebec. According to our model, the GGE of Lake Michigan lake whitefish decreased from 0.075 to 0.02 as age increased from 2 to 5 years. In contrast, the GGE of lake whitefish in Quebec inland waters decreased from 0.12 to 0.05 for the same ages. When our swimming-speed submodel was replaced with a submodel that had been used for lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) in Lake Michigan and an observed predator energy density for Lake Michigan lake whitefish was employed, our model predicted that the GGE of Lake Michigan lake whitefish decreased from 0.12 to 0.04 as age increased from 2 to 5 years.

  11. Ecological niche modeling of sympatric krill predators around Marguerite Bay, Western Antarctic Peninsula

    Science.gov (United States)

    Friedlaender, Ari S.; Johnston, David W.; Fraser, William R.; Burns, Jennifer; Halpin, Patrick N.; Costa, Daniel P.

    2011-07-01

    Adélie penguins ( Pygoscelis adeliae), carabeater seals ( Lobodon carcinophagus), humpback ( Megaptera novaeangliae), and minke whales ( Balaenoptera bonaernsis) are found in the waters surrounding the Western Antarctic Peninsula. Each species relies primarily on Antarctic krill ( Euphausia superba) and has physiological constraints and foraging behaviors that dictate their ecological niches. Understanding the degree of ecological overlap between sympatric krill predators is critical to understanding and predicting the impacts on climate-driven changes to the Antarctic marine ecosystem. To explore ecological relationships amongst sympatric krill predators, we developed ecological niche models using a maximum entropy modeling approach (Maxent) that allows the integration of data collected by a variety of means (e.g. satellite-based locations and visual observations). We created spatially explicit probability distributions for the four krill predators in fall 2001 and 2002 in conjunction with a suite of environmental variables. We find areas within Marguerite Bay with high krill predator occurrence rates or biological hot spots. We find the modeled ecological niches for Adélie penguins and crabeater seals may be affected by their physiological needs to haul-out on substrate. Thus, their distributions may be less dictated by proximity to prey and more so by physical features that over time provide adequate access to prey. Humpback and minke whales, being fully marine and having greater energetic demands, occupy ecological niches more directly proximate to prey. We also find evidence to suggest that the amount of overlap between modeled niches is relatively low, even for species with similar energetic requirements. In a rapidly changing and variable environment, our modeling work shows little indication that krill predators maintain similar ecological niches across years around Marguerite Bay. Given the amount of variability in the marine environment around the

  12. Assessment of the Breakup of the Antarctic Polar Vortex in Two New Chemistry-Climate Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hurwitz, M. M.; Newman, P. A.; Oman, L. D.; Li, F.; Morgenstern, O.; Braesicke, P.; Pyle, J. A.

    2010-01-01

    Successful simulation of the breakup of the Antarctic polar vortex depends on the representation of tropospheric stationary waves at Southern Hemisphere middle latitudes. This paper assesses the vortex breakup in two new chemistry-climate models (CCMs). The stratospheric version of the UK Chemistry and Aerosols model is able to reproduce the observed timing of the vortex breakup. Version 2 of the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS V2) model is typical of CCMs in that the Antarctic polar vortex breaks up too late; at 10 hPa, the mean transition to easterlies at 60 S is delayed by 12-13 days as compared with the ERA-40 and National Centers for Environmental Prediction reanalyses. The two models' skill in simulating planetary wave driving during the October-November period accounts for differences in their simulation of the vortex breakup, with GEOS V2 unable to simulate the magnitude and tilt of geopotential height anomalies in the troposphere and thus underestimating the wave driving. In the GEOS V2 CCM the delayed breakup of the Antarctic vortex biases polar temperatures and trace gas distributions in the upper stratosphere in November and December.

  13. CALPUFF modelling for the Williams Lake airshed

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schutte, A.; Jain, R.; Walsh, C. [Levelton Consultants Ltd., Richmond, BC (Canada)

    2005-06-21

    Th air quality dispersion model CALPUFF was described and evaluated. CALPUFF is a suite of 3 numerical models used in series to determine predicted pollution concentrations. Details of the simulation program were presented, and its performance was evaluated through an analysis of the Williams Lake airshed in British Columbia. CALMET is a diagnostic computer model that produces a detailed 3-D field of meteorological parameters based on surface and upper air measurements, digital land use data, and terrain data. The 3-D fields produced by CALMET are then used by CALPUFF to calculate the dispersion of emissions over distances of a few metres to hundreds of kilometres. CALPOST is a statistical processing program used to summarize and tabulate the concentrations calculated by CALPUFF. The dispersion of emissions from point, area, and mobile sources in the Williams Lake airshed was simulated using data collected between June 2003 to June 2004 to establish a baseline. Baseline modelling was then compared with ambient monitoring data in the airshed to determine sources of error and model accuracy. Airshed boundaries were defined by UTM grid coordinates. Modelling domain boundaries were defined by the map of the Williams Lake region, which also showed the locations of industrial sources and air quality monitors used in the comparison with the model. The ambient concentrations that were predicted by the dispersion model were compared with the ambient air quality objectives and guidelines applicable to the Williams Lake Airshed and regulated by both provincial and federal governments. Modelling results showed that CALPUFF results were within a reasonable amount of error and could be considered conservative. It was concluded that steps should be taken to reduce levels of sulfur dioxide (SO{sub 2}); carbon monoxide (CO); nitrogen oxide (NO{sub x}); nitric oxide (NO{sub 2}); volatile organic compounds (VOC); and particulate matter (PM). 23 refs., 6 tabs., 6 figs.

  14. Ecosystem element transport model for Lake Eckarfjaerden

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The ecosystem transport model of elements was developed for Lake Eckarfjaerden located in the Forsmark area in Sweden. Forsmark has currently a low level repository (SFR) and a repository for spent fuel is planned. A large number of data collected during site-investigation program 2002-2009 for planning the repository were available for the creation of the compartment model based on carbon circulation, physical and biological processes (e.g. primary production, consumption, respiration). The model is site-specific in the sense that the food web model is adapted to the actual food web at the site, and most estimates of biomass and metabolic rates for the organisms and meteorological data originate from site data. The functional organism groups of Lake Eckarfjaerden were considered as separate compartments: bacterio-plankton, benthic bacteria, macro-algae, phytoplankton, zooplankton, fish, benthic fauna. Two functional groups of bacteria were taken into account for the reason that they have the highest biomass of all functional groups during the winter, comprising 36% of the total biomass. Effects of ecological parameters, such as bacteria and algae biomass, on redistribution of a hypothetical radionuclide release in the lake were examined. The ecosystem model was used to estimate the environmental transfer of several elements (U, Th, Ra) and their isotopes (U-238, U-234,Th-232, Ra-226) to various aquatic organisms in the lake, using element-specific distribution coefficients for suspended particle and sediment. Results of chemical analyses of the water, sediment and biota were used for model validation. The model gives estimates of concentration factors for fish based on modelling rather on in situ measurement, which reduces the uncertainties for many radionuclides with scarce of data. Document available in abstract form only. (authors)

  15. Ecosystem element transport model for Lake Eckarfjaerden

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Konovalenko, L.; Bradshaw, C. [The Department of Ecology, Environment and Plant Sciences, Stockholm University (Sweden); Andersson, E.; Kautsky, U. [Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co. - SKB (Sweden)

    2014-07-01

    The ecosystem transport model of elements was developed for Lake Eckarfjaerden located in the Forsmark area in Sweden. Forsmark has currently a low level repository (SFR) and a repository for spent fuel is planned. A large number of data collected during site-investigation program 2002-2009 for planning the repository were available for the creation of the compartment model based on carbon circulation, physical and biological processes (e.g. primary production, consumption, respiration). The model is site-specific in the sense that the food web model is adapted to the actual food web at the site, and most estimates of biomass and metabolic rates for the organisms and meteorological data originate from site data. The functional organism groups of Lake Eckarfjaerden were considered as separate compartments: bacterio-plankton, benthic bacteria, macro-algae, phytoplankton, zooplankton, fish, benthic fauna. Two functional groups of bacteria were taken into account for the reason that they have the highest biomass of all functional groups during the winter, comprising 36% of the total biomass. Effects of ecological parameters, such as bacteria and algae biomass, on redistribution of a hypothetical radionuclide release in the lake were examined. The ecosystem model was used to estimate the environmental transfer of several elements (U, Th, Ra) and their isotopes (U-238, U-234,Th-232, Ra-226) to various aquatic organisms in the lake, using element-specific distribution coefficients for suspended particle and sediment. Results of chemical analyses of the water, sediment and biota were used for model validation. The model gives estimates of concentration factors for fish based on modelling rather on in situ measurement, which reduces the uncertainties for many radionuclides with scarce of data. Document available in abstract form only. (authors)

  16. History, development and characteristics of lake ecological models

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2002-01-01

    This paper provides some introductory information on the history, development, and characteristics of various lake ecosystem models.The modeling of lake ecological processes began to gain importance in the early 1960s. There are a number of models available today, with varying levels of complexity to cope with the variety of environmental problems found in lake environments, e.g. eutrophication, acidification,oxygen depletion, wetland management, heavy metal and pesticide pollution, as well as hydrodynamic problems. In particular, this paper focuses on lake eutrophication and wetland models, as well as addressing strategies appropriate for the design and development of reliable lake ecological models.

  17. Origin and fate of Lake Vostok water frozen to the base of the East Antarctic ice sheet.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bell, Robin E; Studinger, Michael; Tikku, Anahita A; Clarke, Garry K C; Gutner, Michael M; Meertens, Chuck

    2002-03-21

    The subglacial Lake Vostok may be a unique reservoir of genetic material and it may contain organisms with distinct adaptations, but it has yet to be explored directly. The lake and the overlying ice sheet are closely linked, as the ice-sheet thickness drives the lake circulation, while melting and freezing at the ice-sheet base will control the flux of water, biota and sediment through the lake. Here we present a reconstruction of the ice flow trajectories for the Vostok core site, using ice-penetrating radar data and Global Positioning System (GPS) measurements of surface ice velocity. We find that the ice sheet has a significant along-lake flow component, persistent since the Last Glacial Maximum. The rates at which ice is frozen (accreted) to the base of the ice sheet are greatest at the shorelines, and the accreted ice layer is subsequently transported out of the lake. Using these new flow field and velocity measurements, we estimate the time for ice to traverse Lake Vostok to be 16,000-20,000 years. We infer that most Vostok ice analysed to date was accreted to the ice sheet close to the western shoreline, and is therefore not representative of open lake conditions. From the amount of accreted lake water we estimate to be exported along the southern shoreline, the lake water residence time is about 13,300 years. PMID:11907573

  18. Determining lake surface water temperatures (LSWTs) worldwide using a tuned 1-dimensional lake model (FLake, v1)

    OpenAIRE

    Layden, A.; S. MacCallum; Merchant, C.

    2015-01-01

    FLake, a 1-dimensional freshwater lake model, is tuned for 244 globally distributed large lakes using lake surface water temperatures (LSWTs) derived from Along-Track Scanning Radiometers (ATSRs). The model, tuned using only 3 lake properties; lake depth, albedo (snow and ice) and light extinction co-efficient, substantially improves the measured biases in various features of the LSWT annual cycle, including the LSWTs of saline and high altitude lakes. The daily ...

  19. Laboratory evaluation of a lake trout bioenergetics model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madenjian, Charles P.; O'Connor, Daniel V.

    1999-01-01

    Lake trout Salvelinus namaycush, aged 3 and 6 years and with average weights of 700 and 2,000 g, were grown in laboratory tanks for up to 407 d under a thermal regime similar to that experienced by lake trout in nearshore Lake Michigan. Lake trout were fed alewifeAlosa pseudoharengus and rainbow smelt Osmerus mordax, prey typical of lake trout in Lake Michigan. Of the 120 lake trout used in the experiment, 40 were fed a low ration (0.25% of their body weight per day), 40 were fed a medium ration (0.5% of their body weight per day), and 40 were fed a high ration (ad libitum). We measured consumption and growth, and we compared observed consumption with that predicted by the Wisconsin bioenergetics model. For lake trout fed the medium ration, model predictions for monthly consumption were unbiased. Moreover, predicted cumulative consumption by medium-ration lake trout for the entire experiment (320 d for smaller lake trout and 407 d for larger lake trout) agreed quite well with observed cumulative consumption; predictions were as close as within 0.1 to 5.2% of observed cumulative consumption. Even so, the model consistently overestimated consumption by low-ration fish and underestimated consumption by high-ration fish. The bias was significant in both cases, but was more severe for the low-ration trout. Because the low-ration and high-ration regimes were probably unrealistic for lake trout residing in Lake Michigan and because the model fit our laboratory data rather well for medium-ration trout, we conclude that applying the Wisconsin bioenergetics model to the Lake Michigan lake trout population in order to estimate the amount of prey fish consumed by lake trout each year is appropriate.

  20. A coupled lake-atmosphere model (CLAM) and its application to Lake Kinneret

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pan, Hai

    1999-08-01

    Kinneret is a 166-km2 lake located in Northern Israel, in the central part of the Jordan Valley, a corridor running from north to south, between the Galilee hills in the west and the Golan Heights in the east. Both the Galilee hills and the Golan Heights reach an elevation of about 400 m above mean sea level (MSL), and the lake is about -210 m (MSL). North of the lake is the mountainous area of the Hermon, culminating at about 2800 m (MSL). About 120 km south of it is the Dead Sea, which is about -410 m (MSL), and about 45 km west of it is the Mediterranean Sea. The complexity of the terrain, combined with relatively arid soil and various ground covers surrounding the lake, results in a very complicated system of atmospheric and lake processes. To understand this system, especially the processes affecting the atmosphere and lake dynamics and thermodynamics, and their effects on Lake Kinneret evaporation, a coupled lake-atmosphere model (CLAM) was developed and applied to the lake region. The CLAM is based on the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) and the oceanic S-coordinate Rutgers University Model (SCRUM). Energy, mass, and momentum are conserved at the interface between the atmosphere and the lake, and appropriate balance equations are applied there. In the atmospheric module, two nested grids are employed to simulate Northern Israel at a resolution of 4 x 4 km2, and the near-lake region at a resolution of 1 x 1 km 2. Synoptic conditions obtained from the National Meteorological Center (NMC) reanalysis are assimilated by the model. Soil moisture, which appears to have a significant impact on atmospheric circulation in this region, was transformed from the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). Observations collected during two summers above and inside the lake emphasize the good capability of CLAM to simulate surface fluxes and other microclimatic conditions, as well as lake temperature and currents. Although the lake is small (about 12-km wide

  1. Large-Ensemble modeling of last deglacial and future variations of the Antarctic Ice Sheet

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pollard, David; DeConto, Robert; Chang, Won; Applegate, Patrick; Haran, Murali

    2015-04-01

    Recent observations of thinning and retreat of the Pine Island and Thwaites Glaciers identify the Amundsen Sea Embayment (ASE) sector of West Antarctica as particularly vulnerable to future climate change. To date, most future modeling of these glaciers has been calibrated using recent and modern observations. As an alternate approach, we apply a hybrid 3-D ice sheet-shelf model to the last deglacial retreat of Antarctica, making use of geologic data from ~20,000 years BP to present, focusing on the ASE but including other sectors of Antarctica. Following several recent ice-sheet studies, we use Large-Ensemble statistical techniques, performing sets of ~500 to 1000 runs with varying model parameters. The model is run for the last 40 kyrs on 10 to 20-km grids, both on continental domains and also on nested domains over West Antarctica. Various types of objective scores for each run are calculated using reconstructed past grounding lines, relative sea level records, measured uplift rates, and cosmogenic elevation-age data. Runs are extended into the future few millennia using RCP scenarios. The goal is to produce calibrated probabilistic ranges of model parameter values and quantified envelopes of future ice retreat. Preliminary results are presented for Large Ensembles with (i) Latin HyperCube sampling in high-dimensional parameter space, using statistical emulators and Markov Chain Monte Carlo techniques, and (ii) dense "factorial" sampling with a smaller number of parameters. Different ways of combining the types of scores listed above are explored. One robust conclusion is that for the warmer future RCP scenarios, most reasonable parameter combinations produce retreat deep into the West Antarctic interior. Recently proposed mechanisms of hydrofracturing and ice-cliff failure accelerate future West Antarctic retreat, and later produce retreat into East Antarctic basins.

  2. Integrating three lake models into a Phytoplankton Prediction System for Lake Taihu (Taihu PPS) with Python

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Huang, J.; Gao, J.; Hörmann, G.; Mooij, W.M.

    2012-01-01

    In the past decade, much work has been done on integrating different lake models using general frameworks to overcome model incompatibilities. However, a framework may not be flexible enough to support applications in different fields. To overcome this problem, we used Python to integrate three lake

  3. Present-day Circum-Antarctic Simulations using the POPSICLES Coupled Ice Sheet-Ocean Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asay-Davis, X.; Martin, D. F.; Price, S. F.; Maltrud, M. E.; Collins, W.

    2014-12-01

    We present POPSICLES simulation results covering the full Antarctic Ice Sheet and the Southern Ocean spanning the period 1990 to 2010. Simulations are performed at 0.1o (~5 km) ocean resolution and with adaptive ice-sheet model resolution as fine as 500 m. We compare time-averaged melt rates below a number of major ice shelves with those reported by Rignot et al. (2013) as well as other recent studies. We also present seasonal variability and decadal trends in submarine melting from several Antarctic regions. Finally, we explore the influence on basal melting and system dynamics resulting from two different choices of climate forcing: a "normal-year" climatology and the CORE v. 2 forcing data (Large and Yeager 2008).POPSICLES couples the POP2x ocean model, a modified version of the Parallel Ocean Program (Smith and Gent, 2002), and the BISICLES ice-sheet model (Cornford et al., 2012). POP2x includes sub-ice-shelf circulation using partial top cells (Losch, 2008) and boundary layer physics following Holland and Jenkins (1999), Jenkins (2001), and Jenkins et al. (2010). Standalone POP2x output compares well with standard ice-ocean test cases (e.g., ISOMIP; Losch, 2008) and other continental-scale simulations and melt-rate observations (Kimura et al., 2013; Rignot et al., 2013). BISICLES makes use of adaptive mesh refinement and a 1st-order accurate momentum balance similar to the L1L2 model of Schoof and Hindmarsh (2009) to accurately model regions of dynamic complexity, such as ice streams, outlet glaciers, and grounding lines. Results of BISICLES simulations have compared favorably to comparable simulations with a Stokes momentum balance in both idealized tests (MISMIP-3D; Pattyn et al., 2013) and realistic configurations (Favier et al. 2014).A companion presentation, "Response of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to ocean forcing using the POPSICLES coupled ice sheet-ocean model" in session C024 covers the ice-sheet response to these melt rates in the coupled simulation

  4. Using a Hydrodynamic Lake Model to Predict the Impact of Avalanche Events at Lake Palcacocha, Peru

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chisolm, R. E.; Somos-Valenzuela, M. A.; McKinney, D. C.; Hodges, B. R.

    2013-12-01

    Accelerated retreat of Andean glaciers in recent decades due to a warming climate has caused the emergence and growth of glacial lakes. As these lakes continue to grow, they pose an increasing risk of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs). GLOFs can be triggered by moraine failures or by avalanches, rockslides, or ice calving into glacial lakes. Many of the processes influencing GLOF risk are still poorly understood. For many decades Lake Palcacocha in the Cordillera Blanca, Peru has posed a threat to citizens living in the watershed below, including the city of Huaraz which was devastated by a GLOF in 1941. A safety system for Lake Palcacocha was put in place in the 1970's to control the lake level with a tunnel and reinforced dyke, but the lake has since grown to the point where the lake is once again dangerous. Overhanging ice from the Palcaraju glacier and a relatively low freeboard level make the lake vulnerable to avalanches and landslides. A siphon system has been put in place to lower the lake below the level of the tunnel, but this system is temporary and the potential reduction in the water level is limited. Lake Palcacocha is used as a case study to investigate the impact of an avalanche event on the lake dynamics and the ensuing flood hydrograph. Empirical equations are used to determine the initial wave characteristics of an impulse wave created by three different avalanche scenarios that represent small, medium and large events. The characteristics of the initial impulse wave are used as inputs to a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model to predict the wave propagation across the lake and the moraine overtopping volume. The results from this model will be used as inputs to a downstream GLOF model to predict the impact from an outburst flood event. Additionally several scenarios are considered to evaluate the downstream impact from avalanche events with a reduction in the lake level. Use of a robust three-dimensional hydrodynamic lake model enables more

  5. Modeling and management of pit lake water chemistry 1: Theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Highlights: • Review of pit lake literature in the context of pit lake predictions. • Review of approaches used to predict pit wall-rock runoff and leachate. • Review of approaches used to generate a pit lake water balance. • Review of approaches used to generate a hydrodynamic prediction. • Review of approaches used to generate a geochemical prediction of a future pit lake. - Abstract: Pit lakes are permanent hydrologic/landscape features that can result from open pit mining for metals, coal, uranium, diamonds, oil sands, and aggregates. Risks associated with pit lakes include local and regional impacts to water quality and related impacts to aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems. Stakeholders rely on predictive models of water chemistry to prepare for and manage these risks. This paper is the first of a two part series on the modeling and management of pit lakes. Herein, we review approaches that have been used to quantify wall-rock runoff geochemistry, wall-rock leachate geochemistry, pit lake water balance, pit lake limnology (i.e. extent of vertical mixing), and pit lake water quality, and conclude with guidance on the application of models within the mine life cycle. The purpose of this paper is to better prepare stakeholders, including future modelers, mine managers, consultants, permitting agencies, land management agencies, regulators, research scientists, academics, and other interested parties, for the challenges of predicting and managing future pit lakes in un-mined areas

  6. Subduction of Pacific Antarctic Intermediate Water in an eddy-resolving model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hiraike, Yuri; Tanaka, Yukio; Hasumi, Hiroyasu

    2016-01-01

    The subduction process of Pacific Antarctic Intermediate Water (PAAIW) in the Pacific is investigated using output from an eddy-resolving ocean model. Focus is on contribution of eddies to the subduction process. To separate the subduction rate into contributions by eddies and mean flows, the temporal residual mean (TRM) velocity is used. In the mean subduction rate, lateral induction caused by the strong eastward flow of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) is dominant. The largest rate is located in the Drake Passage. The estimated eddy-induced subduction rate is comparable with the mean subduction rate, and it tends to cancel the vertical mean component in many regions. In the west of the Drake Passage, however, the eddy-induced subduction is larger than the vertical mean component, and this eddy-induced subduction was not detected in previous studies using the thickness diffusion parameterization and an eddy-permitting model. Results of idealized sensitivity studies to model resolution suggest that the subduction rate would be larger using a model with higher vertical resolution. Therefore, the vertical resolution should be paid more attention in model studies investigating eddy-induced subduction, and not just the horizontal resolution.

  7. Polythermal modelling of steady states of the Antarctic ice sheet in comparison with the real world

    OpenAIRE

    Hansen, I.; Greve, Ralf

    1996-01-01

    An approach to simulate the present Antarctic ice sheet with respect to its thermomechanical behaviour and the resulting features is made with the three-dimensional polythermal ice-sheet model designed by Greve and Hutter. It treats zones of cold and temperate ice as different materials with their own properties and dynamics. This is important becausc an underlying layer of temperate ice can influence the ice sheet as a whole, e.g. the cold ice may slide upon the less viscous binary ice-water...

  8. Evidence for link between modelled trends in Antarctic sea ice and underestimated westerly wind changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Purich, Ariaan; Cai, Wenju; England, Matthew H.; Cowan, Tim

    2016-02-01

    Despite global warming, total Antarctic sea ice coverage increased over 1979-2013. However, the majority of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 models simulate a decline. Mechanisms causing this discrepancy have so far remained elusive. Here we show that weaker trends in the intensification of the Southern Hemisphere westerly wind jet simulated by the models may contribute to this disparity. During austral summer, a strengthened jet leads to increased upwelling of cooler subsurface water and strengthened equatorward transport, conducive to increased sea ice. As the majority of models underestimate summer jet trends, this cooling process is underestimated compared with observations and is insufficient to offset warming in the models. Through the sea ice-albedo feedback, models produce a high-latitude surface ocean warming and sea ice decline, contrasting the observed net cooling and sea ice increase. A realistic simulation of observed wind changes may be crucial for reproducing the recent observed sea ice increase.

  9. Evidence for link between modelled trends in Antarctic sea ice and underestimated westerly wind changes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Purich, Ariaan; Cai, Wenju; England, Matthew H; Cowan, Tim

    2016-01-01

    Despite global warming, total Antarctic sea ice coverage increased over 1979-2013. However, the majority of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 models simulate a decline. Mechanisms causing this discrepancy have so far remained elusive. Here we show that weaker trends in the intensification of the Southern Hemisphere westerly wind jet simulated by the models may contribute to this disparity. During austral summer, a strengthened jet leads to increased upwelling of cooler subsurface water and strengthened equatorward transport, conducive to increased sea ice. As the majority of models underestimate summer jet trends, this cooling process is underestimated compared with observations and is insufficient to offset warming in the models. Through the sea ice-albedo feedback, models produce a high-latitude surface ocean warming and sea ice decline, contrasting the observed net cooling and sea ice increase. A realistic simulation of observed wind changes may be crucial for reproducing the recent observed sea ice increase. PMID:26842498

  10. Geochemical monitoring of volcanic lakes. A generalized box model for active crater lakes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Franco Tassi

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available

    In the past, variations in the chemical contents (SO42−, Cl−, cations of crater lake water have not systematically demonstrated any relationships with eruptive activity. Intensive parameters (i.e., concentrations, temperature, pH, salinity should be converted into extensive parameters (i.e., fluxes, changes with time of mass and solutes, taking into account all the internal and external chemical–physical factors that affect the crater lake system. This study presents a generalized box model approach that can be useful for geochemical monitoring of active crater lakes, as highly dynamic natural systems. The mass budget of a lake is based on observations of physical variations over a certain period of time: lake volume (level, surface area, lake water temperature, meteorological precipitation, air humidity, wind velocity, input of spring water, and overflow of the lake. This first approach leads to quantification of the input and output fluxes that contribute to the actual crater lake volume. Estimating the input flux of the "volcanic" fluid (Qf- kg/s –– an unmeasurable subsurface parameter –– and tracing its variations with time is the major focus during crater lake monitoring. Through expanding the mass budget into an isotope and chemical budget of the lake, the box model helps to qualitatively characterize the fluids involved. The (calculated Cl− content and dD ratio of the rising "volcanic" fluid defines its origin. With reference to continuous monitoring of crater lakes, the present study provides tips that allow better calculation of Qf in the future. At present, this study offers the most comprehensive and up-to-date literature review on active crater lakes.

  11. Determining lake surface water temperatures worldwide using a tuned one-dimensional lake model (FLake, v1)

    OpenAIRE

    Layden, Aisling; MacCallum, Stuart N.; Merchant, Christopher J.

    2016-01-01

    A tuning method for FLake, a one-dimensional (1-D) freshwater lake model, is applied for the individual tuning of 244 globally distributed large lakes using observed lake surface water temperatures (LSWTs) derived from along-track scanning radiometers (ATSRs). The model, which was tuned using only three lake properties (lake depth, snow and ice albedo and light extinction coefficient), substantially improves the measured mean differences in various features of the LSWT annua...

  12. Mesoscale modeling of lake effect snow over Lake Erie - sensitivity to convection, microphysics and the water temperature

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Theeuwes, N.E.; Steeneveld, G.J.; Krikken, F.; Holtslag, A.A.M.

    2010-01-01

    Lake effect snow is a shallow convection phenomenon during cold air advection over a relatively warm lake. A severe case of lake effect snow over Lake Erie on 24 December 2001 was studied with the MM5 and WRF mesoscale models. This particular case provided over 200 cm of snow in Buffalo (NY), caused

  13. Stochastic superparameterization in a quasigeostrophic model of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grooms, Ian; Majda, Andrew J.; Smith, K. Shafer

    2015-01-01

    Stochastic superparameterization, a stochastic parameterization framework based on a multiscale formalism, is developed for mesoscale eddy parameterization in coarse-resolution ocean modeling. The framework of stochastic superparameterization is reviewed and several configurations are implemented and tested in a quasigeostrophic channel model - an idealized representation of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. Five versions of the Gent-McWilliams (GM) parameterization are also implemented and tested for comparison. Skill is measured using the time-mean and temporal variability separately, and in combination using the relative entropy in the single-point statistics. Among all the models, those with the more accurate mean state have the less accurate variability, and vice versa. Stochastic superparameterization results in improved climate fidelity in comparison with GM parameterizations as measured by the relative entropy. In particular, configurations of stochastic superparameterization that include stochastic Reynolds stress terms in the coarse model equations, corresponding to kinetic energy backscatter, perform better than models that only include isopycnal height smoothing.

  14. 3-D Eutrophication Modeling for Lake Simcoe, Canada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Q.; Duckett, F.; Nairn, R.; Brunton, A.

    2006-12-01

    The Lake Simcoe Region Conservation Authority (LSRCA) and the Province of Ontario are undertaking a series of studies to facilitate management of the pressures of population growth in the Lake Simcoe watershed. With rapid population growth and urban development comes additional land clearing, storm water runoff and the discharge of treated sewage, all of which are sources of increased phosphorus loading to Lake Simcoe. Depressed oxygen levels were linked to phosphorous enrichment of the lake, with the resultant stimulation of algal growth in the sunlit upper waters of the lake, and its subsequent senescence and settling into the hypolimnion where bacterial decomposition consumes oxygen from the stratified waters. This poster describes a 3-D hydrodynamic, thermal and water quality model of Lake Simcoe developed using the Danish Hydraulics Institute (DHI) MIKE3 model. The hydrodynamic module includes wind-driven circulation, temperature variation, development of the thermocline and thermal stratification, and hydraulic forcing from inflowing tributaries. This is linked to the water quality module which simulates the eutrophication processes in the response of the lake to loadings of phosphorus, such as algal growth, the growth of aquatic plants and subsequent oxygen consumption. The model has been calibrated against Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler velocity data, plus measured temperature and water quality data at MOE stations in the lake and water intakes. The model is an important assessment tool for the management of the lake and its watersheds, allowing assessment of the impacts of the urban growth and land use change on the water quality in Lake Simcoe.

  15. Present-day and future Antarctic ice sheet climate and surface mass balance in the Community Earth System Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lenaerts, Jan T. M.; Vizcaino, Miren; Fyke, Jeremy; van Kampenhout, Leo; van den Broeke, Michiel R.

    2016-09-01

    We present climate and surface mass balance (SMB) of the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) as simulated by the global, coupled ocean-atmosphere-land Community Earth System Model (CESM) with a horizontal resolution of {˜ }1° in the past, present and future (1850-2100). CESM correctly simulates present-day Antarctic sea ice extent, large-scale atmospheric circulation and near-surface climate, but fails to simulate the recent expansion of Antarctic sea ice. The present-day Antarctic ice sheet SMB equals 2280 ± 131 {Gt year^{-1}}, which concurs with existing independent estimates of AIS SMB. When forced by two CMIP5 climate change scenarios (high mitigation scenario RCP2.6 and high-emission scenario RCP8.5), CESM projects an increase of Antarctic ice sheet SMB of about 70 {Gt year^{-1}} per degree warming. This increase is driven by enhanced snowfall, which is partially counteracted by more surface melt and runoff along the ice sheet's edges. This intensifying hydrological cycle is predominantly driven by atmospheric warming, which increases (1) the moisture-carrying capacity of the atmosphere, (2) oceanic source region evaporation, and (3) summer AIS cloud liquid water content.

  16. Combined DNA and lipid analyses of sediments reveal changes in Holocene phytoplankton populations in an Antarctic lake

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sinninghe Damsté, J.S.; Coolen, M.J.L.; Muyzer, G.; Rijpstra, W.I.C.; Schouten, S.; Volkman, J.K.

    2004-01-01

    Preserved ribosomal DNA of planktonic phototrophic algae was recovered from Holocene anoxic sediments of Ace Lake (Antarctica), and the ancient community members were identified based on comparative sequence analysis. The similar concentration profiles of DNA of haptophytes and their traditional lip

  17. The neglect of cliff instability can underestimate warming period melting in Antarctic ice sheet models

    CERN Document Server

    Ruckert, Kelsey L; Pollard, Dave; Guan, Yawen; Wong, Tony E; Forest, Chris E; Keller, Klaus

    2016-01-01

    The response of the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) to changing climate forcings is an important driver of sea-level changes. Anthropogenic climate changes may drive a sizeable AIS tipping point response with subsequent increases in coastal flooding risks. Many studies analyzing flood risks use simple models to project the future responses of AIS and its sea-level contributions. These analyses have provided important new insights, but they are often silent on the effects of potentially important processes such as Marine Ice Sheet Instability (MISI) or Marine Ice Cliff Instability (MICI). These approximations can be well justified and result in more parsimonious and transparent model structures. This raises the question how this approximation impacts hindcasts and projections. Here, we calibrate a previously published AIS model, which neglects the effects of MICI, using a combination of observational constraints and a Bayesian inversion method. Specifically, we approximate the effects of missing MICI by comparing ou...

  18. MAGIC-DML: Mapping/Measuring/Modeling Antarctic Geomorphology & Ice Change in Dronning Maud Land

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogozhina, Irina; Bernales, Jorge; Newall, Jennifer; Stroeven, Arjen; Harbor, Jonathan; Glasser, Neil; Fredin, Ola; Fabel, Derek; Hättestrand, Class; Lifton, Nat

    2016-04-01

    Reconstructing and predicting the response of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to climate change is one of the major challenges facing the Earth Science community. There are critical gaps in our knowledge of past changes in ice elevation and extent in many regions of East Antarctica, including a large area of Dronning Maud Land. An international Swedish-UK-US-Norwegian-German project MAGIC-DML aims to reconstruct the timing and pattern of ice surface elevation (thus ice sheet volume) fluctuations since the mid-Pliocene warm period on the Dronning Maud Land margin of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet. A combination of remotely sensed geomorphological mapping, field investigations, surface exposure dating and numerical modelling are being used in an iterative manner to produce a comprehensive reconstruction of the glacial history of Dronning Maud Land. Here we present the results from the first phase of this project, which involves high-resolution numerical simulations of the past glacial geometries and mapping of the field area using historic and recent aerial imagery together with a range of satellite acquired data.

  19. Modeling lakes and reservoirs in the climate system

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    MacKay, M.D.; Neale, P.J.; Arp, C.D.; De Senerpont Domis, L.N.; Fang, X.; Gal, G.; Jöhnk, K.D.; Kirillin, G.; Lenters, J.D.; Litchman, E.; MacIntyre, S.; Marsh, P.; Melack, J.; Mooij, W.M.; Peeters, F.; Quesada, A.; Schladow, S.G.; Schmid, M.; Spence, C.; Stokes, S.L.

    2009-01-01

    Modeling studies examining the effect of lakes on regional and global climate, as well as studies on the influence of climate variability and change on aquatic ecosystems, are surveyed. Fully coupled atmosphere–land surface–lake climate models that could be used for both of these types of study simu

  20. Timescales of Growth Response of Microbial Mats to Environmental Change in an Ice-Covered Antarctic Lake

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anne D. Jungblut

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Lake Vanda is a perennially ice-covered, closed-basin lake in the McMurdo Dry Valleys, Antarctica. Laminated photosynthetic microbial mats cover the floor of the lake from below the ice cover to >40 m depth. In recent decades, the water level of Lake Vanda has been rising, creating a “natural experiment” on development of mat communities on newly flooded substrates and the response of deeper mats to declining irradiance. Mats in recently flooded depths accumulate one lamina (~0.3 mm per year and accrue ~0.18 µg chlorophyll-a cm−2 y−1. As they increase in thickness, vertical zonation becomes evident, with the upper 2-4 laminae forming an orange-brown zone, rich in myxoxanthophyll and dominated by intertwined Leptolyngbya trichomes. Below this, up to six phycobilin-rich green/pink-pigmented laminae form a subsurface zone, inhabited by Leptolyngbya, Oscillatoria and Phormidium morphotypes. Laminae continued to increase in thickness for several years after burial, and PAM fluorometry indicated photosynthetic potential in all pigmented laminae. At depths that have been submerged for >40 years, mats showed similar internal zonation and formed complex pinnacle structures that were only beginning to appear in shallower mats. Chlorophyll-a did not change over time and these mats appear to represent resource-limited “climax” communities. Acclimation of microbial mats to changing environmental conditions is a slow process, and our data show how legacy effects of past change persist into the modern community structure.

  1. Combined DNA and lipid analyses of sediments reveal changes in Holocene haptophyte and diatom populations in an Antarctic lake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coolen, Marco J. L.; Muyzer, Gerard; Rijpstra, W. Irene C.; Schouten, Stefan; Volkman, John K.; Sinninghe Damsté, Jaap S.

    2004-06-01

    Preserved ribosomal DNA of planktonic phototrophic algae was recovered from Holocene anoxic sediments of Ace Lake (Antarctica), and the ancient community members were identified based on comparative sequence analysis. The similar concentration profiles of DNA of haptophytes and their traditional lipid biomarkers (alkenones and alkenoates) revealed that fossil rDNA also served as quantitative biomarkers in this environment. The DNA data clearly revealed the presence of six novel phylotypes related to known alkenone and alkenoate-biosynthesizing haptophytes with Isochrysis galbana UIO 102 as their closest relative. The relative abundance of these phylotypes changed as the lake chemistry, particularly salinity, evolved over time. Changes in the alkenone distributions reflect these population changes rather than a physiological response to salinity by a single haptophyte. Using this novel paleo-ecological approach of combining data from lipid biomarkers and preserved DNA, we showed that the post-glacial development of Ace Lake from freshwater basin to marine inlet and the present-day lacustrine saline system caused major qualitative and quantitative changes in the biodiversity of the planktonic populations over time.

  2. Determining lake surface water temperatures worldwide using a tuned one-dimensional lake model (FLake, v1)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Layden, Aisling; MacCallum, Stuart N.; Merchant, Christopher J.

    2016-06-01

    A tuning method for FLake, a one-dimensional (1-D) freshwater lake model, is applied for the individual tuning of 244 globally distributed large lakes using observed lake surface water temperatures (LSWTs) derived from along-track scanning radiometers (ATSRs). The model, which was tuned using only three lake properties (lake depth, snow and ice albedo and light extinction coefficient), substantially improves the measured mean differences in various features of the LSWT annual cycle, including the LSWTs of saline and high altitude lakes, when compared to the observed LSWTs. Lakes whose lake-mean LSWT persists below 1 °C for part of the annual cycle are considered to be seasonally ice-covered. For trial seasonally ice-covered lakes (21 lakes), the daily mean and standard deviation (2σ) of absolute differences between the modelled and observed LSWTs are reduced from 3.07 °C ± 2.25 °C to 0.84 °C ± 0.51 °C by tuning the model. For all other trial lakes (14 non-ice-covered lakes), the improvement is from 3.55 °C ± 3.20 °C to 0.96 °C ± 0.63 °C. The post tuning results for the 35 trial lakes (21 seasonally ice-covered lakes and 14 non-ice-covered lakes) are highly representative of the post-tuning results of the 244 lakes. For the 21 seasonally ice-covered lakes, the modelled response of the summer LSWTs to changes in snow and ice albedo is found to be statistically related to lake depth and latitude, which together explain 0.50 (R2adj, p = 0.001) of the inter-lake variance in summer LSWTs. Lake depth alone explains 0.35 (p = 0.003) of the variance. Lake characteristic information (snow and ice albedo and light extinction coefficient) is not available for many lakes. The approach taken to tune the model, bypasses the need to acquire detailed lake characteristic values. Furthermore, the tuned values for lake depth, snow and ice albedo and light extinction coefficient for the 244 lakes provide some guidance on improving FLake LSWT modelling.

  3. Biogeochemical modelling of anaerobic vs. aerobic methane oxidation in a meromictic crater lake (Lake Pavin, France)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Methane is a powerful greenhouse gas and its concentration in the atmosphere has increased over the past decades. Methane produced by methanogenic Archae can be consumed through aerobic and anaerobic oxidation pathways. In anoxic conditions found in freshwater environments such as meromictic lakes, CH4 oxidation pathways involving different terminal electron acceptors such as NO3-, SO42-, and oxides of Fe and Mn are thermodynamically possible. In this study, a reactive transport model was developed to assess the relative significance of the different pathways of CH4 consumption in the water column of Lake Pavin. In most cases, the model reproduced experimental data collected from the field from June 2006 to June 2007. Although the model and the field measurements suggest that anaerobic CH4 oxidation may contribute to CH4 consumption in the water column of Lake Pavin, aerobic oxidation remains the major sink of CH4 in this lake.

  4. Correlative and dynamic species distribution modelling for ecological predictions in the Antarctic: a cross-disciplinary concept

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas Saucède

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Developments of future scenarios of Antarctic ecosystems are still in their infancy, whilst predictions of the physical environment are recognized as being of global relevance and corresponding models are under continuous development. However, in the context of environmental change simulations of the future of the Antarctic biosphere are increasingly demanded by decision makers and the public, and are of fundamental scientific interest. This paper briefly reviews existing predictive models applied to Antarctic ecosystems before providing a conceptual framework for the further development of spatially and temporally explicit ecosystem models. The concept suggests how to improve approaches to relating species’ habitat description to the physical environment, for which a case study on sea urchins is presented. In addition, the concept integrates existing and new ideas to consider dynamic components, particularly information on the natural history of key species, from physiological experiments and biomolecular analyses. Thereby, we identify and critically discuss gaps in knowledge and methodological limitations. These refer to process understanding of biological complexity, the need for high spatial resolution oceanographic data from the entire water column, and the use of data from biomolecular analyses in support of such ecological approaches. Our goal is to motivate the research community to contribute data and knowledge to a holistic, Antarctic-specific, macroecological framework. Such a framework will facilitate the integration of theoretical and empirical work in Antarctica, improving our mechanistic understanding of this globally influential ecoregion, and supporting actions to secure this biodiversity hotspot and its ecosystem services.

  5. GREAT LAKES ENVIRONMENTAL PLANNING USING LIMNOLOGICAL SYSTEMS ANALYSIS: MODEL SPECIFICATIONS

    Science.gov (United States)

    The report documents the deliberate decision making process used by the Great Lakes Basin Commission in concluding that rational modeling methodologies could be used to evaluate the effect of different planning alternatives on the Great Lakes and that planning for specific proble...

  6. Uncertainties in Ensemble Predictions of Future Antarctic Mass Loss with the fETISh Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pattyn, F.

    2015-12-01

    Marine ice sheet models should be capable of handling complex feedbacks between ice and ocean, such as marine ice sheet instability, and the atmosphere, such as the elevation-mass balance feedback, operating at different time scales. Recent model intercomparisons (e.g., SeaRISE, MISMIP) have shown that the complexity of many ice sheet models is focused on processes that are either not well captured numerically (spatial resolution issue) or are of secondary importance compared to the essential features of marine ice sheet dynamics. Here, we propose a new and fast computing ice sheet model, devoid of most complexity, but capturing the essential feedbacks when coupled to ocean or atmospheric models. Its computational efficiency guarantees to easily tests its advantages as well as limits through ensemble modelling. The fETISh (fast Elementary Thermomechanical (marine) Ice Sheet) model is a vertically integrated hybrid (SSA/SIA) ice sheet model. Although vertically integrated, thermomechanical coupling is ensured through a simplified representation of ice sheet thermodynamics based on an analytical solution of the vertical temperature profile, including strain heating and horizontal advection. The marine boundary is represented by a flux condition similar to Pollard & Deconto (2012), based on Schoof (2007). Buttressing of ice shelves is taken into account via the Shallow-Shelf Approximation (SSA). The ice sheet model is solved on four staggered finite difference grids for numerical efficiency/stability. Numerical tests following EISMINT, ISMIP and MISMIP are performed as a prerequisite. The fETISh model is forced with different ice-shelf melt rates and basal sliding perturbations to allow comparison with recent model intercomparisons of the Antarctic ice sheet (e.g., SeaRISE, Favier et al. (2013)). These forcings are further completed with a set of scenarios involving ice-shelf buttressing and unbuttressing. All experiments are carried out on different spatial

  7. Impact of surface wind biases on the Antarctic sea ice concentration budget in climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lecomte, O.; Goosse, H.; Fichefet, T.; Holland, P. R.; Uotila, P.; Zunz, V.; Kimura, N.

    2016-09-01

    We derive the terms in the Antarctic sea ice concentration budget from the output of three models, and compare them to observations of the same terms. Those models include two climate models from the 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and one ocean-sea ice coupled model with prescribed atmospheric forcing. Sea ice drift and wind fields from those models, in average over April-October 1992-2005, all exhibit large differences with the available observational or reanalysis datasets. However, the discrepancies between the two distinct ice drift products or the two wind reanalyses used here are sometimes even greater than those differences. Two major findings stand out from the analysis. Firstly, large biases in sea ice drift speed and direction in exterior sectors of the sea ice covered region tend to be systematic and consistent with those in winds. This suggests that sea ice errors in these areas are most likely wind-driven, so as errors in the simulated ice motion vectors. The systematic nature of these biases is less prominent in interior sectors, nearer the coast, where sea ice is mechanically constrained and its motion in response to the wind forcing more depending on the model rheology. Second, the intimate relationship between winds, sea ice drift and the sea ice concentration budget gives insight on ways to categorize models with regard to errors in their ice dynamics. In exterior regions, models with seemingly too weak winds and slow ice drift consistently yield a lack of ice velocity divergence and hence a wrong wintertime sea ice growth rate. In interior sectors, too slow ice drift, presumably originating from issues in the physical representation of sea ice dynamics as much as from errors in surface winds, leads to wrong timing of the late winter ice retreat. Those results illustrate that the applied methodology provides a valuable tool for prioritizing model improvements based on the ice concentration budget-ice drift biases-wind biases

  8. LakeMIP Kivu: evaluating the representation of a large, deep tropical lake by a set of one-dimensional lake models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    WIM Thiery

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available The African great lakes are of utmost importance for the local economy (fishing, as well as being essential to the survival of the local people. During the past decades, these lakes experienced fast changes in ecosystem structure and functioning, and their future evolution is a major concern. In this study, for the first time a set of one-dimensional lake models are evaluated for Lake Kivu (2.28°S; 28.98°E, East Africa. The unique limnology of this meromictic lake, with the importance of salinity and subsurface springs in a tropical high-altitude climate, presents a worthy challenge to the seven models involved in the Lake Model Intercomparison Project (LakeMIP. Meteorological observations from two automatic weather stations are used to drive the models, whereas a unique dataset, containing over 150 temperature profiles recorded since 2002, is used to assess the model's performance. Simulations are performed over the freshwater layer only (60 m and over the average lake depth (240 m, since salinity increases with depth below 60 m in Lake Kivu and some lake models do not account for the influence of salinity upon lake stratification. All models are able to reproduce the mixing seasonality in Lake Kivu, as well as the magnitude and seasonal cycle of the lake enthalpy change. Differences between the models can be ascribed to variations in the treatment of the radiative forcing and the computation of the turbulent heat fluxes. Fluctuations in wind velocity and solar radiation explain inter-annual variability of observed water column temperatures. The good agreement between the deep simulations and the observed meromictic stratification also shows that a subset of models is able to account for the salinity- and geothermal-induced effects upon deep-water stratification. Finally, based on the strengths and weaknesses discerned in this study, an informed choice of a one-dimensional lake model for a given research purpose becomes possible.

  9. Evaluation of the performance of the WRF 1-Dimensional Lake model over the East Africa Great Lakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gudoshava, M.; Semazzi, F. H. M.

    2015-12-01

    This study seeks to investigate the performance of the 1-Dimensional lake model coupled to WRF over East Africa. The Africa Great lakes exert a great influence on the climate of the region and a number of studies have shown how the lake influences the circulation and the total precipitation over the region. The lakes have highly variable depths, with Lake Victoria having an average depth of 40m and Lake Tanganyika a depth of 450m. The Lake model for WRF was tested and calibrated for the Great lakes, however it was not tested for tropical lakes. We hypothesize that the inclusion of a 1-dimensional lake will reduce the precipitation bias as compared to the WRF model without the lake model. In addition initializing the lake temperature using a vertical temperature profile that closes resembles the one over these lakes will greatly reduce the spin up time. The simulations utilized three nested domains at 36, 12 and 4km. The 4km domain is centered over Lake Victoria Basin, while the 12 km domain includes all the lakes in East Africa. The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) datasets are used in evaluating the precipitation, and the following statistics were calculated: root mean square error, standard deviation of the model and observations and mean bias. The results show that the use of the 1-dimensional lake model improves the precipitation over the region considerably compared to an uncoupled model. The asymmetrical rainfall pattern is evident in the simulations. However using the default vertical temperature profile with a three-month spin up is not adequate to transfer heat to the bottom of the lake. Hence the temperatures are still very cold at the bottom. A nine-month spin up improves the lake surface temperatures and lake temperatures at the bottom. A two year spin up greatly improves the lake surface temperatures and hence the total precipitation over the lake. Thus longer spin up time allows for adequate heat transfer in the lake. Initializing the

  10. Projecting Antarctic ice discharge using response functions from SeaRISE ice-sheet models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Levermann

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available The largest uncertainty in projections of future sea-level change still results from the potentially changing dynamical ice discharge from Antarctica. While ice discharge can alter through a number of processes, basal ice-shelf melting induced by a warming ocean has been identified as a major if not the major cause for possible additional ice flow across the grounding line. Here we derive dynamic ice-sheet response functions for basal ice-shelf melting using experiments carried out within the Sea-level Response to Ice Sheet Evolution (SeaRISE intercomparison project with five different Antarctic ice-sheet models. As used here these response functions provide separate contributions for four different Antarctic drainage regions. Under the assumptions of linear-response theory we project future ice-discharge for each model, each region and each of the four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP using oceanic temperatures from 19 comprehensive climate models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, CMIP-5, and two ocean models from the EU-project Ice2Sea. Uncertainty in the climatic forcing, the oceanic response and the ice-model differences is combined into an uncertainty range of future Antarctic ice-discharge induced from basal ice-shelf melt. The additional ice-loss (Table 6 is clearly scenario-dependent and results in a median of 0.07 m (66%-range: 0.04–0.10 m; 90%-range: −0.01–0.26 m of global sea-level equivalent for the low-emission RCP-2.6 scenario and yields 0.1 m (66%-range: 0.06–0.14 m; 90%-range: −0.01–0.45 m for the strongest RCP-8.5. If only models with an explicit representation of ice-shelves are taken into account the scenario dependence remains and the values change to: 0.05 m (66%-range: 0.03–0.08 m for RCP-2.6 and 0.07 m (66%-range: 0.04–0.11 m for RCP-8.5. These results were obtained using a time delay between the surface warming signal and the subsurface oceanic warming as observed in the CMIP-5 models

  11. Determining lake surface water temperatures (LSWTs worldwide using a tuned 1-dimensional lake model (FLake, v1

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Layden

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available FLake, a 1-dimensional freshwater lake model, is tuned for 244 globally distributed large lakes using lake surface water temperatures (LSWTs derived from Along-Track Scanning Radiometers (ATSRs. The model, tuned using only 3 lake properties; lake depth, albedo (snow and ice and light extinction co-efficient, substantially improves the measured biases in various features of the LSWT annual cycle, including the LSWTs of saline and high altitude lakes. The daily mean absolute differences (MAD and the spread of differences (±2 standard deviations across the trial seasonally ice covered lakes (lakes with a lake-mean LSWT remaining below 1 °C for part of the annual cycle is reduced from 3.01± 2.25 °C (pre-tuning to 0.84 ± 0.51 °C (post-tuning. For non-seasonally ice-covered trial lakes (lakes with a lake-mean LSWT remaining above 1 °C throughout its annual cycle, the average daily mean absolute difference (MAD is reduced from 3.55 ± 3.20 °C to 0.96 ± 0.63 °C. The post tuning results for the trial lakes (35 lakes are highly representative of the post tuning results of the 244 lakes. The sensitivity of the summer LSWTs of deeper lakes to changes in the timing of ice-off is demonstrated. The modelled summer LSWT response to changes in ice-off timing is found to be strongly affected by lake depth and latitude, explaining 0.50 (R2adj, p = 0.001 of the inter-lake variance in summer LSWTs. Lake depth alone explains 0.35 (p =0.003 of the variance. The tuning approach undertaken in this study, overcomes the obstacle of the lack of available lake characteristic information (snow and ice albedo and light extinction co-efficient for individual lakes. Furthermore, the tuned values for lake depth, snow and ice albedo and light extinction co-efficient for the 244 lakes provide guidance for improving LSWTs modelling in FLake.

  12. Parameter Estimations of Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB Model over the Life History of a Key Antarctic Species: The Antarctic Sea Star Odontaster validus Koehler, 1906.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonio Agüera

    Full Text Available Marine organisms in Antarctica are adapted to an extreme ecosystem including extremely stable temperatures and strong seasonality due to changes in day length. It is now largely accepted that Southern Ocean organisms are particularly vulnerable to global warming with some regions already being challenged by a rapid increase of temperature. Climate change affects both the physical and biotic components of marine ecosystems and will have an impact on the distribution and population dynamics of Antarctic marine organisms. To predict and assess the effect of climate change on marine ecosystems a more comprehensive knowledge of the life history and physiology of key species is urgently needed. In this study we estimate the Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB model parameters for key benthic Antarctic species the sea star Odontaster validus using available information from literature and experiments. The DEB theory is unique in capturing the metabolic processes of an organism through its entire life cycle as a function of temperature and food availability. The DEB model allows for the inclusion of the different life history stages, and thus, becomes a tool that can be used to model lifetime feeding, growth, reproduction, and their responses to changes in biotic and abiotic conditions. The DEB model presented here includes the estimation of reproduction handling rules for the development of simultaneous oocyte cohorts within the gonad. Additionally it links the DEB model reserves to the pyloric caeca an organ whose function has long been ascribed to energy storage. Model parameters described a slowed down metabolism of long living animals that mature slowly. O. validus has a large reserve that-matching low maintenance costs- allow withstanding long periods of starvation. Gonad development is continuous and individual cohorts developed within the gonads grow in biomass following a power function of the age of the cohort. The DEB model developed here for O

  13. Modeling a glacial lake outburst flood process chain: the case of Lake Palcacocha and Huaraz, Peru

    Science.gov (United States)

    Somos-Valenzuela, Marcelo A.; Chisolm, Rachel E.; Rivas, Denny S.; Portocarrero, Cesar; McKinney, Daene C.

    2016-07-01

    One of the consequences of recent glacier recession in the Cordillera Blanca, Peru, is the risk of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) from lakes that have formed at the base of retreating glaciers. GLOFs are often triggered by avalanches falling into glacial lakes, initiating a chain of processes that may culminate in significant inundation and destruction downstream. This paper presents simulations of all of the processes involved in a potential GLOF originating from Lake Palcacocha, the source of a previously catastrophic GLOF on 13 December 1941, killing about 1800 people in the city of Huaraz, Peru. The chain of processes simulated here includes (1) avalanches above the lake; (2) lake dynamics resulting from the avalanche impact, including wave generation, propagation, and run-up across lakes; (3) terminal moraine overtopping and dynamic moraine erosion simulations to determine the possibility of breaching; (4) flood propagation along downstream valleys; and (5) inundation of populated areas. The results of each process feed into simulations of subsequent processes in the chain, finally resulting in estimates of inundation in the city of Huaraz. The results of the inundation simulations were converted into flood intensity and preliminary hazard maps (based on an intensity-likelihood matrix) that may be useful for city planning and regulation. Three avalanche events with volumes ranging from 0.5 to 3 × 106 m3 were simulated, and two scenarios of 15 and 30 m lake lowering were simulated to assess the potential of mitigating the hazard level in Huaraz. For all three avalanche events, three-dimensional hydrodynamic models show large waves generated in the lake from the impact resulting in overtopping of the damming moraine. Despite very high discharge rates (up to 63.4 × 103 m3 s-1), the erosion from the overtopping wave did not result in failure of the damming moraine when simulated with a hydro-morphodynamic model using excessively conservative soil

  14. Modeling a Glacial Lake Outburst Flood Process Chain: The Case of Lake Palcacocha and Huaraz, Peru

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chisolm, Rachel; Somos-Valenzuela, Marcelo; Rivas Gomez, Denny; McKinney, Daene C.; Portocarrero Rodriguez, Cesar

    2016-04-01

    One of the consequences of recent glacier recession in the Cordillera Blanca, Peru, is the risk of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) from lakes that have formed at the base of retreating glaciers. GLOFs are often triggered by avalanches falling into glacial lakes, initiating a chain of processes that may culminate in significant inundation and destruction downstream. This paper presents simulations of all of the processes involved in a potential GLOF originating from Lake Palcacocha, the source of a previously catastrophic GLOF on December 13, 1941, 1800 people in the city of Huaraz, Peru. The chain of processes simulated here includes: (1) avalanches above the lake; (2) lake dynamics resulting from the avalanche impact, including wave generation, propagation, and run-up across lakes; (3) terminal moraine overtopping and dynamic moraine erosion simulations to determine the possibility of breaching; (4) flood propagation along downstream valleys; and (5) inundation of populated areas. The results of each process feed into simulations of subsequent processes in the chain, finally resulting in estimates of inundation in the city of Huaraz. The results of the inundation simulations were converted into flood intensity and hazard maps (based on an intensity-likelihood matrix) that may be useful for city planning and regulation. Three avalanche events with volumes ranging from 0.5-3 x 106 m3 were simulated, and two scenarios of 15 m and 30 m lake lowering were simulated to assess the potential of mitigating the hazard level in Huaraz. For all three avalanche events, three-dimensional hydrodynamic models show large waves generated in the lake from the impact resulting in overtopping of the damming-moraine. Despite very high discharge rates (up to 63.4 x 103 m3/s), the erosion from the overtopping wave did not result in failure of the damming-moraine when simulated with a hydro-morphodynamic model using excessively conservative soil characteristics that provide very

  15. Challenges and opportunities for integrating lake ecosystem modelling approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mooij, Wolf M.; Trolle, Dennis; Jeppesen, Erik; Arhonditsis, George; Belolipetsky, Pavel V.; Chitamwebwa, Deonatus B.R.; Degermendzhy, Andrey G.; DeAngelis, Donald L.; Domis, Lisette N. De Senerpont; Downing, Andrea S.; Elliott, J. Alex; Ruberto, Carlos Ruberto; Gaedke, Ursula; Genova, Svetlana N.; Gulati, Ramesh D.; Hakanson, Lars; Hamilton, David P.; Hipsey, Matthew R.; Hoen, Jochem 't; Hulsmann, Stephan; Los, F. Hans; Makler-Pick, Vardit; Petzoldt, Thomas; Prokopkin, Igor G.; Rinke, Karsten; Schep, Sebastiaan A.; Tominaga, Koji; Van Dam, Anne A.; Van Nes, Egbert H.; Wells, Scott A.; Janse, Jan H.

    2010-01-01

    A large number and wide variety of lake ecosystem models have been developed and published during the past four decades. We identify two challenges for making further progress in this field. One such challenge is to avoid developing more models largely following the concept of others ('reinventing the wheel'). The other challenge is to avoid focusing on only one type of model, while ignoring new and diverse approaches that have become available ('having tunnel vision'). In this paper, we aim at improving the awareness of existing models and knowledge of concurrent approaches in lake ecosystem modelling, without covering all possible model tools and avenues. First, we present a broad variety of modelling approaches. To illustrate these approaches, we give brief descriptions of rather arbitrarily selected sets of specific models. We deal with static models (steady state and regression models), complex dynamic models (CAEDYM, CE-QUAL-W2, Delft 3D-ECO, LakeMab, LakeWeb, MyLake, PCLake, PROTECH, SALMO), structurally dynamic models and minimal dynamic models. We also discuss a group of approaches that could all be classified as individual based: super-individual models (Piscator, Charisma), physiologically structured models, stage-structured models and trait-based models. We briefly mention genetic algorithms, neural networks, Kalman filters and fuzzy logic. Thereafter, we zoom in, as an in-depth example, on the multi-decadal development and application of the lake ecosystem model PCLake and related models (PCLake Metamodel, Lake Shira Model, IPH-TRIM3D-PCLake). In the discussion, we argue that while the historical development of each approach and model is understandable given its 'leading principle', there are many opportunities for combining approaches. We take the point of view that a single 'right' approach does not exist and should not be strived for. Instead, multiple modelling approaches, applied concurrently to a given problem, can help develop an integrative

  16. Seismic modeling study of Vostok lake East Antartica

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carcione, J. M.; Gei, D.; Camerlenghi, A.

    2003-04-01

    Vostok Lake is located in East Antarctica between 76.2oS/102oE and 78.4oS/108oE (extending about 230 km to the north of Vostok Station), beneath nearly 4 km of glacial ice. This lake, believed to be the largest subglacial lake, has been surveyed by airbone 60 MHz radio-echo soundings (Kapitsa et al., 1996) and seismic surveys (Kapitsa et al., 1996; Masolov et al., 1999). In this work, we study the seismic visibility of the lake using seismic modeling and analyze the amplitude variations with offset (AVA) characteristics of the ice/water and water/sediment interfaces by computing the corresponding reflection and refraction coefficients. There is a need of suitable models for studying the seismic response of subglacial lakes and planning seismic reflection surveys. The geological model is defined by using available seismic information and poroelastic models that take into account the in-situ conditions of the different layers versus temperature and pressure. The methodology involves rock-physics models of the shallow layer (firn), the ice sheet and the lake sediments, numerical simulation of synthetic seismograms, ray tracing, tau-p transform, and AVA analysis, based on the theoretical reflection coefficients. The reflection seismograms show a set of straight events and the two reflection events associated with the top and bottom of the lake. Theoretical AVA analysis of these reflections indicates that, at near offsets, the PP-wave anomaly is negative for the ice/water interface and constant for the water/sediment interface. This behavior is confirmed by AVA analysis of the synthetic data set. This study shows that subglacial lakes can be identified by using seismic methods. Moreover, the methodology provides a tool for designing suitable seismic surveys. largeReferences} begin{description} Carcione, J.M. and Gei, D., Seismic modeling study of a subglacial lake, submitted to Geophysical Prospecting. Kapitsa, A. P., Ridley, J. K., Robin, G. de Q., Siegert, M. J., and

  17. Antarctic Entomology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chown, Steven L; Convey, Peter

    2016-01-01

    The Antarctic region comprises the continent, the Maritime Antarctic, the sub-Antarctic islands, and the southern cold temperate islands. Continental Antarctica is devoid of insects, but elsewhere diversity varies from 2 to more than 200 species, of which flies and beetles constitute the majority. Much is known about the drivers of this diversity at local and regional scales; current climate and glacial history play important roles. Investigations of responses to low temperatures, dry conditions, and varying salinity have spanned the ecological to the genomic, revealing new insights into how insects respond to stressful conditions. Biological invasions are common across much of the region and are expected to increase as climates become warmer. The drivers of invasion are reasonably well understood, although less is known about the impacts of invasion. Antarctic entomology has advanced considerably over the past 50 years, but key areas, such as interspecific interactions, remain underexplored.

  18. Comparative bioenergetics modeling of two Lake Trout morphotypes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kepler, Megan V.; Wagner, Tyler; Sweka, John A.

    2014-01-01

    Efforts to restore Lake Trout Salvelinus namaycush in the Laurentian Great Lakes have been hampered for decades by several factors, including overfishing and invasive species (e.g., parasitism by Sea Lampreys Petromyzon marinus and reproductive deficiencies associated with consumption of Alewives Alosa pseudoharengus). Restoration efforts are complicated by the presence of multiple body forms (i.e., morphotypes) of Lake Trout that differ in habitat utilization, prey consumption, lipid storage, and spawning preferences. Bioenergetics models constitute one tool that is used to help inform management and restoration decisions; however, bioenergetic differences among morphotypes have not been evaluated. The goal of this research was to investigate bioenergetic differences between two actively stocked morphotypes: lean and humper Lake Trout. We measured consumption and respiration rates across a wide range of temperatures (4–22°C) and size-classes (5–100 g) to develop bioenergetics models for juvenile Lake Trout. Bayesian estimation was used so that uncertainty could be propagated through final growth predictions. Differences between morphotypes were minimal, but when present, the differences were temperature and weight dependent. Basal respiration did not differ between morphotypes at any temperature or size-class. When growth and consumption differed between morphotypes, the differences were not consistent across the size ranges tested. Management scenarios utilizing the temperatures presently found in the Great Lakes (e.g., predicted growth at an average temperature of 11.7°C and 14.4°C during a 30-d period) demonstrated no difference in growth between the two morphotypes. Due to a lack of consistent differences between lean and humper Lake Trout, we developed a model that combined data from both morphotypes. The combined model yielded results similar to those of the morphotype-specific models, suggesting that accounting for morphotype differences may

  19. A 3-D model for the Antarctic ice sheet: a sensitivity study on the glacial-interglacial contrast

    OpenAIRE

    Huybrechts, Philippe

    1990-01-01

    On the longer climatic time scales, changes in the elevation and extent of the Antarctic ice sheet have an important role in modulating global atmospheric andoceanographic processes, and contribute significantly to world-wide sea levels. In this paper, a 3-D time-dependent thermomechanical model for the entire icesheet is presented that is subsequently used to examine the effects of glacial-interglacial shifts in environmental boundary conditions on its geometry. Themodel takes into account a...

  20. Lake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wien, Carol Anne

    2008-01-01

    The lake is blue black and deep. It is a glaciated finger lake, clawed out of rock when ice retracted across Nova Scotia in a northerly direction during the last ice age. The lake is narrow, a little over a mile long, and deep, 90 to 190 feet in places according to local lore, off the charts in others. The author loves to swim there, with a sense…

  1. Subaqueous geology and a filling model for Crater Lake, Oregon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nathenson, M.; Bacon, C.R.; Ramsey, D.W.

    2007-01-01

    Results of a detailed bathymetric survey of Crater Lake conducted in 2000, combined with previous results of submersible and dredge sampling, form the basis for a geologic map of the lake floor and a model for the filling of Crater Lake with water. The most prominent landforms beneath the surface of Crater Lake are andesite volcanoes that were active as the lake was filling with water, following caldera collapse during the climactic eruption of Mount Mazama 7700 cal. yr B.P. The Wizard Island volcano is the largest and probably was active longest, ceasing eruptions when the lake was 80 m lower than present. East of Wizard Island is the central platform volcano and related lava flow fields on the caldera floor. Merriam Cone is a symmetrical andesitic volcano that apparently was constructed subaqueously during the same period as the Wizard Island and central platform volcanoes. The youngest postcaldera volcanic feature is a small rhyodacite dome on the east flank of the Wizard Island edifice that dates from 4800 cal. yr B.P. The bathymetry also yields information on bedrock outcrops and talus/debris slopes of the caldera walls. Gravity flows transport sediment from wall sources to the deep basins of the lake. Several debris-avalanche deposits, containing blocks up to 280 m long, are present on the caldera floor and occur below major embayments in the caldera walls. Geothermal phenomena on the lake floor are bacterial mats, pools of solute-rich warm water, and fossil subaqueous hot spring deposits. Lake level is maintained by a balance between precipitation and inflow versus evaporation and leakage. High-resolution bathymetry reveals a series of up to nine drowned beaches in the upper 30 m of the lake that we propose reflect stillstands subsequent to filling of Crater Lake. A prominent wave-cut platform between 4 m depth and present lake level that commonly is up to 40 m wide suggests that the surface of Crater Lake has been at this elevation for a very long time

  2. Spatial patterns of Antarctic surface temperature trends in the context of natural variability: Lessons from the CMIP5 Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, K. L.; Polvani, L. M.

    2015-12-01

    The recent annually averaged warming of the Antarctic Peninsula, and of West Antarctica, stands in stark contrast to very small and weakly negative trends over East Antarctica. This asymmetry arises primarily from a highly significant warming of West Antarctica in austral spring and a strong cooling of East Antarctic in austral autumn. Here we examine whether this East-West asymmetry is a response to anthropogenic climate forcings or a manifestation of natural climate variability. We compare the observed Antarctic surface air temperature (SAT) trends from five temperature reconstructions over two distinct time periods (1979-2005 and 1960-2005), and with those simulated by 40 coupled models participating in Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. We find that the observed East-West asymmetry differs substantially over the two time periods and, furthermore, is completely absent from the CMIP5 multi-model mean (from which all natural variability is eliminated by the averaging). We compare the CMIP5 SAT trends to those of 29 historical atmosphere-only simulations with prescribed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and sea ice and find that these simulations are in better agreement with the observations. This suggests that natural multi-decadal variability associated with SSTs and sea ice and not external forcings is the primary driver of Antarctic SAT trends. We confirm this by showing that the observed trends lie within the distribution of multi-decadal trends from the CMIP5 pre-industrial integrations. These results, therefore, offer new evidence which points to natural climate variability as the more likely cause of the recent warming of West Antarctica and of the Peninsula.

  3. A glacial systems model configured for large ensemble analysis of Antarctic deglaciation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Briggs

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available This article describes the Memorial University of Newfoundland/Penn State University (MUN/PSU glacial systems model (GSM that has been developed specifically for large-ensemble data-constrained analysis of past Antarctic Ice Sheet evolution. Our approach emphasizes the introduction of a large set of model parameters to explicitly account for the uncertainties inherent in the modelling of such a complex system. At the core of the GSM is a 3-D thermo-mechanically coupled ice sheet model that solves both the shallow ice and shallow shelf approximations. This enables the different stress regimes of ice sheet, ice shelves, and ice streams to be represented. The grounding line is modelled through an analytical sub-grid flux parametrization. To this dynamical core the following have been added: a heavily parametrized basal drag component; a visco-elastic isostatic adjustment solver; a diverse set of climate forcings (to remove any reliance on any single method; tidewater and ice shelf calving functionality; and a new physically-motivated empirically-derived sub-shelf melt (SSM component. To assess the accuracy of the latter, we compare predicted SSM values against a compilation of published observations. Within parametric and observational uncertainties, computed SSM for the present day ice sheet is in accord with observations for all but the Filchner ice shelf. The GSM has 31 ensemble parameters that are varied to account (in part for the uncertainty in the ice-physics, the climate forcing, and the ice-ocean interaction. We document the parameters and parametric sensitivity of the model to motivate the choice of ensemble parameters in a quest to approximately bound reality (within the limits of 31 parameters.

  4. Modeling of TOA radiance measured by CERES and SCIAMACHY over the East Antarctic Plateau

    Science.gov (United States)

    Radkevich, A.; Kato, S.; Lukashin, C.

    2015-12-01

    CERES and SCIAMACHY are satellite borne remote sensing instruments measuring solar-reflected and Earth-emitted radiation at the top-of-atmosphere (TOA). CERES instruments are designed to monitor the Earth's radiation budget by measuring radiation in 3 broad bands. SCIAMACHY sensor measured earth reflected radiation in the spectral range 0.24 to 2.38 um with fine spectral and coarse spatial resolutions. In this work we evaluate CERES shortwave (SW) TOA radiance over permanent clear sky snow in the East Antarctic Plateau to test consistency between modeled and observed radiances. We use SCIAMACHY observations to validate spectral performance of our radiative transfer (RT) model. We revisiting the issue reported by Hudson et al (2010) with another radiative transfer model and using instantaneous atmospheric profiles. That paper reported some overestimation of TOA albedo by their model in comparison with CERES observed SW radiances. As pointed out by Hudson et al., that comparison involves some uncertainties including errors in the modeled surface albedo and atmospheric properties. We use RT model based on DISORT coupled with a k-distribution approach (Kato et al 1999). We use the same approach for the lower boundary condition as in Hudson et al. (2010) with a modification related to modeling surface albedo. In this work we create atmospheric profiles for the individual CERES and SCIAMACHY observations from GEOS-4 reanalysis. A comparison between modeling and actual observations was performed for data from the CERES sensors onboard EOS Terra and Aqua, and Suomi-NPP. Similar to the study by Hudson et al. (2010), the model overestimates the TOA radiance. Modeled radiances are greater than observed ones from the CERES Single Satellite Footprint data by 4.6% for FM-1, 2, and FM-4, and by 3.6% for FM-5. Modeled and observed radiance correlates well: coefficient of determination R2 > 0.999. We compare modeled radiances SCIAMACHY radiances by spectrally integrating over the

  5. An Improved Method for Modeling Spatial Distribution of δD in Surface Snow over Antarctic Ice Sheet

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG Yetang; HOU Shugui; Bjorn GRIGHOLM; SONG Linlin

    2009-01-01

    Using the recent compilation of the isotopic composition data of surface snow of Antarctic ice sheet, we proposed an improved interpolation method of δD, which utilizes geographical factors (i.e., latitude and altitude) as the primary predictors and incorporates inverse distance weighting (IDW) technique. The method was applied to a high-resolution digital elevation model (DEM) to produce a grid map of multi-year mean δD values with 1km spatial resolution for Antarctic& The mean absolute deviation between observed and estimated data in the map is about 5.4‰, and the standard deviation is 9‰. The resulting δD pattern resembles well known characteristics such as the depletion of the heavy isotopes with increasing latitude and distance from coast line, but also reveals the complex topographic effects.

  6. Predation on lake trout eggs and fry: A modeling approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Savino, Jacqueline F.; Hudson, Patrick L.; Fabrizio, Mary C.; Bowen, Charles A.

    1999-01-01

    A general model was developed to examine the effects of multiple predators on survival of eggs and fry of lake trout, Salvelinus namaycush, associated with spawning reefs. Three kinds of predation were simulated: epibenthic egg predators consuming eggs on the substrate surface during spawning, interstitial egg predators that can move in rocky substrate and consume incubating eggs, and fry predators. Also simulated was the effect of water temperature on predation rates. The model predicted that interstitial predation on eggs accounted for most (76 to 81%) of the predation on early life history stages of lake trout; epibenthic egg predation (12 to 19%) and fry predation (0 to 12%) had less effect on lake trout survival. Initial predation conditions chosen for the model were: epibenthic egg predation peaked at 2 eggs/mA?/d over 30 d, insterstitial egg predation at 2 eggs/mA?/d over 180 d, and fry predation at 1 fry/mA?/d over 60 d. With a starting egg density of 100 eggs/mA? and initial predation conditions, no lake trout were estimated to survive to swim-up. At egg densities of 250 eggs/mA?, 36% of the lake trout survived. At the highest egg densities examined, 500 to 1,000 eggs/mA?, estimated survival increased to about 70 to 80%. Simulated survival rates of lake trout decreased dramatically as predation rate increased but were not as sensitive to increases in the duration of predation.

  7. Modelling acoustic propagation beneath Antarctic sea ice using measured environmental parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexander, Polly; Duncan, Alec; Bose, Neil; Williams, Guy

    2016-09-01

    Autonomous underwater vehicles are improving and expanding in situ observations of sea ice for the validation of satellite remote sensing and climate models. Missions under sea ice, particularly over large distances (up to 100 km) away from the immediate vicinity of a ship or base, require accurate acoustic communication for monitoring, emergency response and some navigation systems. We investigate the propagation of acoustic signals in the Antarctic seasonal ice zone using the BELLHOP model, examining the influence of ocean and sea ice properties. We processed available observations from around Antarctica to generate input variables such as sound speed, surface reflection coefficient (R) and roughness parameters. The results show that changes in the sound speed profile make the most significant difference to the propagation of the direct path signal. The inclusion of the surface reflected signals from a flat ice surface was found to greatly decrease the transmission loss with range. When ice roughness was added, the transmission loss increased with roughness, in a manner similar to the direct path transmission loss results. The conclusions of this work are that: (1) the accuracy of acoustic modelling in this environment is greatly increased by using realistic sound speed data; (2) a risk averse ranging model would use only the direct path signal transmission; and (3) in a flat ice scenario, much greater ranges can be achieved if the surface reflected transmission paths are included. As autonomous missions under sea ice increase in scale and complexity, it will be increasingly important for operational procedures to include effective modelling of acoustic propagation with representative environmental data.

  8. Empirical models of wind conditions on Upper Klamath Lake, Oregon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buccola, Norman L.; Wood, Tamara M.

    2010-01-01

    Upper Klamath Lake is a large (230 square kilometers), shallow (mean depth 2.8 meters at full pool) lake in southern Oregon. Lake circulation patterns are driven largely by wind, and the resulting currents affect the water quality and ecology of the lake. To support hydrodynamic modeling of the lake and statistical investigations of the relation between wind and lake water-quality measurements, the U.S. Geological Survey has monitored wind conditions along the lakeshore and at floating raft sites in the middle of the lake since 2005. In order to make the existing wind archive more useful, this report summarizes the development of empirical wind models that serve two purposes: (1) to fill short (on the order of hours or days) wind data gaps at raft sites in the middle of the lake, and (2) to reconstruct, on a daily basis, over periods of months to years, historical wind conditions at U.S. Geological Survey sites prior to 2005. Empirical wind models based on Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Multivariate-Adaptive Regressive Splines (MARS) algorithms were compared. ANNs were better suited to simulating the 10-minute wind data that are the dependent variables of the gap-filling models, but the simpler MARS algorithm may be adequate to accurately simulate the daily wind data that are the dependent variables of the historical wind models. To further test the accuracy of the gap-filling models, the resulting simulated winds were used to force the hydrodynamic model of the lake, and the resulting simulated currents were compared to measurements from an acoustic Doppler current profiler. The error statistics indicated that the simulation of currents was degraded as compared to when the model was forced with observed winds, but probably is adequate for short gaps in the data of a few days or less. Transport seems to be less affected by the use of the simulated winds in place of observed winds. The simulated tracer concentration was similar between model results when

  9. Tephrochronology : Methodology and correlations, Antarctic Peninsula Area

    OpenAIRE

    Molén, Mats

    2012-01-01

    Abstract Methods for tephrochronology are evaluated, in the following way: Lake sediments <500 years old from three small Antarctic lakes were analysed for identification of tephras. Subsamples were analysed for a) grain size, and identification and concentration of volcanogenic grains, b) identification of tephra horizons, c) element abundance by EPMA WDS/EDS and LA-ICP-MS, and d) possible correlations between lakes and volcanoes. Volcanogenic minerals and shards were found all through th...

  10. Numerical modeling of vertical stratification of Lake Shira in summer

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Belolipetsky, P.; Belolipetsky, V.M.; Genova, S.N.; Mooij, W.M.

    2010-01-01

    A one-dimensional numerical model and a two-dimensional numerical model of the hydrodynamic and thermal structure of Lake Shira during summer have been developed, with several original physical and numerical features. These models are well suited to simulate the formation and dynamics of vertical st

  11. Modeling brine and nutrient dynamics in Antarctic sea ice: The case of dissolved silica

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vancoppenolle, Martin; Goosse, Hugues; de Montety, Anne; Fichefet, Thierry; Tremblay, Bruno; Tison, Jean-Louis

    2010-02-01

    Sea ice ecosystems are characterized by microalgae living in brine inclusions. The growth rate of ice algae depends on light and nutrient supply. Here, the interactions between nutrients and brine dynamics under the influence of algae are investigated using a one-dimensional model. The model includes snow and ice thermodynamics with brine physics and an idealized sea ice biological component, characterized by one nutrient, namely, dissolved silica (DSi). In the model, DSi follows brine motion and is consumed by ice algae. Depending on physical ice characteristics, the brine flow is either advective, diffusive, or turbulent. The vertical profiles of ice salinity and DSi concentration are solutions of advection-diffusion equations. The model is configured to simulate the typical thermodynamic regimes of first-year Antarctic pack ice. The simulated vertical profiles of salinity and DSi qualitatively reproduce observations. Analysis of results highlights the role of convection in the lowermost 5-10 cm of ice. Convection mixes saline, nutrient-poor brine with comparatively fresh, nutrient-rich seawater. This implies a rejection of salt to the ocean and a flux of DSi to the ice. In the presence of growing algae, the simulated ocean-to-ice DSi flux increases by 0-115% compared to an abiotic situation. In turn, primary production and brine convection act in synergy to form a nutrient pump. The other important processes are the flooding of the surface by seawater and the percolation of meltwater. The former refills nutrients near the ice surface in spring. The latter, if present, tends to expell nutrients from the ice in summer.

  12. Prospects for surviving climate change in Antarctic aquatic species

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peck Lloyd S

    2005-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Maritime Antarctic freshwater habitats are amongst the fastest changing environments on Earth. Temperatures have risen around 1°C and ice cover has dramatically decreased in 15 years. Few animal species inhabit these sites, but the fairy shrimp Branchinecta gaini typifies those that do. This species survives up to 25°C daily temperature fluctuations in summer and passes winter as eggs at temperatures down to -25°C. Its annual temperature envelope is, therefore around 50°C. This is typical of Antarctic terrestrial species, which exhibit great physiological flexibility in coping with temperature fluctuations. The rapidly changing conditions in the Maritime Antarctic are enhancing fitness in these species by increasing the time available for feeding, growth and reproduction, as well as increasing productivity in lakes. The future problem these animals face is via displacement by alien species from lower latitudes. Such invasions are now well documented from sub-Antarctic sites. In contrast the marine Antarctic environment has very stable temperatures. However, seasonality is intense with very short summers and long winter periods of low to no algal productivity. Marine animals grow slowly, have long generation times, low metabolic rates and low levels of activity. They also die at temperatures between +5°C and +10°C. Failure of oxygen supply mechanisms and loss of aerobic scope defines upper temperature limits. As temperature rises, their ability to perform work declines rapidly before lethal limits are reached, such that 50% of populations of clams and limpets cannot perform essential activities at 2–3°C, and all scallops are incapable of swimming at 2°C. Currently there is little evidence of temperature change in Antarctic marine sites. Models predict average global sea temperatures will rise by around 2°C by 2100. Such a rise would take many Antarctic marine animals beyond their survival limits. Animals have 3 mechanisms for

  13. Development of an Antarctic digital elevation model by integrating cartographic and remotely sensed data: A geographic information system based approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Hongxing; Jezek, Kenneth C.; Li, Biyan

    1999-10-01

    We present a high-resolution digital elevation model (DEM) of the Antarctic. It was created in a geographic information system (GIS) environment by integrating the best available topographic data from a variety of sources. Extensive GIS-based error detection and correction operations ensured that our DEM is free of gross errors. The carefully designed interpolation algorithms for different types of source data and incorporation of surface morphologic information preserved and enhanced the fine surface structures present in the source data. The effective control of adverse edge effects and the use of the Hermite blending weight function in data merging minimized the discontinuities between different types of data, leading to a seamless and topographically consistent DEM throughout the Antarctic. This new DEM provides exceptional topographical details and represents a substantial improvement in horizontal resolution and vertical accuracy over the earlier, continental-scale renditions, particularly in mountainous and coastal regions. It has a horizontal resolution of 200 m over the rugged mountains, 400 m in the coastal regions, and approximately 5 km in the interior. The vertical accuracy of the DEM is estimated at about 100-130 m over the rugged mountainous area, better than 2 m for the ice shelves, better than 15 m for the interior ice sheet, and about 35 m for the steeper ice sheet perimeter. The Antarctic DEM can be obtained from the authors.

  14. The impact of tourists on Antarctic tardigrades: an ordination-based model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sandra J. McInnes

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Tardigrades are important members of the Antarctic biota yet little is known about their role in the soil fauna or whether they are affected by anthropogenic factors. The German Federal Environment Agency commissioned research to assess the impact of human activities on soil meiofauna at 14 localities along the Antarctic peninsula during the 2009/2010 and 2010/2011 austral summers. We used ordination techniques to re-assess the block-sampling design used to compare areas of high and low human impact, to identify which of the sampled variables were biologically relevant and/or demonstrated an anthropogenic significance. We found the most significant differences between locations, reflecting local habitat and vegetation factor, rather than within-location anthropogenic impact. We noted no evidence of exotic imports but report on new maritime Antarctic sample sites and habitats.

  15. Sediment Transport and Water Quality Model of Cedar Lake, Indiana

    Science.gov (United States)

    James, S. C.; Jones, C. A.; Roberts, J. D.; Ahlmann, M.; Bucaro, D. A.

    2006-12-01

    The EPA-supported Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code, EFDC, is used to model hydrodynamics, sediment transport, and water quality in coastal regions, estuaries, rivers, and lakes. However, the empirical formulations used for sediment transport are not always adequate to accurately characterize cohesive sediment erosion and transport. New sediment transport subroutines have been incorporated into EFDC and the new model is called SNL-EFDC. The updated model provides an improved, coupled hydrodynamics, sediment transport, and water quality framework. The newly incorporated sediment transport subroutines facilitate direct use of measured erosion rate data from the Sediment Erosion with Depth Flume (SEDflume). Erosion rates are included as functions of both depth within the sediment bed and applied shear stresses. This bypasses problems associated with empirical erosion formulations often based on disaggregated particle size. Restoration alternatives are under consideration for Cedar Lake in Indiana and SNL-EFDC models its hydrodynamics, sediment transport, and water quality. The water quality model as implemented on Cedar Lake tracks algae, oxygen, temperature, carbon, phosphorous, and nitrogen kinetics, as well as, sediment bed diagenesis. Environmental conditions, wind, temperature, rainfall, and sunlight, were based on data collected in 2005. Tributary loading was modeled using L-THIA and provided influxes of water, nutrients (phosphorous, nitrogen, etc.), and sediments. The calibrated model was used to simulate a nine month period from March to November 2005. Results suggest that the model simulates sediments transport and associated water quality correctly. The calibrated model is being used to evaluate several restoration measures throughout the lake and watershed and their effect on water quality. Because Cedar Lake is a nitrogen limited lake, changes in the level of eutrophication from each measure are being tracked by calculating the Carlson trophic state index

  16. Tides and lake-level variations in the great Patagonian lakes: Observations, modelling and geophysical implications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marderwald, Eric; Richter, Andreas; Horwath, Martin; Hormaechea, Jose Luis; Groh, Andreas

    2016-04-01

    In Patagonia, the glacial-isostatic adjustment (GIA) to past ice-mass changes (Ivins & James 2004; Klemann et al. 2007) is of particular interest in the context of the determination of the complex regional rheology related to plate subduction in a triple-junction constellation. To further complicate the situation, GIA is overlaid with load deformation not only due to present ice mass changes but also due to water-level changes in the lakes surrounding the icefields and the ocean surrounding Patagonia. These elastic deformations affect the determination of glacial-isostatic uplift rates from GPS observations (Dietrich et al. 2010; Lange et al. 2014). Observations of lake tides and their comparison with the theoretical tidal signal have been used previously to validate predictions of ocean tidal loading and have revealed regional deviations from conventional global elastic earth models (Richter et al. 2009). In this work we investigate the tides and lake-level variations in Lago Argentino, Lago Viedma, Lago San Martín/O'Higgins and Lago Buenos Aires/General Carrera. This allows us to test, among other things, the validity of tidal loading models. We present pressure tide-gauge records from two sites in Lago Argentino extending over 2.5 years (Richter et al. 2015). These observations are complemented by lake-level records provided by the Argentine National Hydrometeorological Network. Based on these lake-level time series the principal processes affecting the lake level are identified and quantified. Lake-level changes reflecting variations in lake volume are dominated by a seasonal cycle exceeding 1 m in amplitude. Lake-volume changes occur in addition with a daily period in response to melt water influx from surrounding glaciers. In Lago Argentino sporadic lake-volume jumps are caused by bursting of the ice dam of Perito Moreno glacier. Water movements in these lakes are dominated by surface seiches reaching 20 cm in amplitude. A harmonic tidal analysis of the lake

  17. LAKE 2.0: a model for temperature, methane, carbon dioxide and oxygen dynamics in lakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stepanenko, Victor; Mammarella, Ivan; Ojala, Anne; Miettinen, Heli; Lykosov, Vasily; Vesala, Timo

    2016-05-01

    A one-dimensional (1-D) model for an enclosed basin (lake) is presented, which reproduces temperature, horizontal velocities, oxygen, carbon dioxide and methane in the basin. All prognostic variables are treated in a unified manner via a generic 1-D transport equation for horizontally averaged property. A water body interacts with underlying sediments. These sediments are represented by a set of vertical columns with heat, moisture and CH4 transport inside. The model is validated vs. a comprehensive observational data set gathered at Kuivajärvi Lake (southern Finland), demonstrating a fair agreement. The value of a key calibration constant, regulating the magnitude of methane production in sediments, corresponded well to that obtained from another two lakes. We demonstrated via surface seiche parameterization that the near-bottom turbulence induced by surface seiches is likely to significantly affect CH4 accumulation there. Furthermore, our results suggest that a gas transfer through thermocline under intense internal seiche motions is a bottleneck in quantifying greenhouse gas dynamics in dimictic lakes, which calls for further research.

  18. An improved lake model for climate simulations: Model structure, evaluation, and sensitivity analyses in CESM1

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zachary Subin

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Lakes can influence regional climate, yet most general circulation models have, at best, simple and largely untested representations of lakes. We developed the Lake, Ice, Snow, and Sediment Simulator(LISSS for inclusion in the land-surface component (CLM4 of an earth system model (CESM1. The existing CLM4 lake modelperformed poorly at all sites tested; for temperate lakes, summer surface water temperature predictions were 10–25uC lower than observations. CLM4-LISSS modifies the existing model by including (1 a treatment of snow; (2 freezing, melting, and ice physics; (3 a sediment thermal submodel; (4 spatially variable prescribed lakedepth; (5 improved parameterizations of lake surface properties; (6 increased mixing under ice and in deep lakes; and (7 correction of previous errors. We evaluated the lake model predictions of water temperature and surface fluxes at three small temperate and boreal lakes where extensive observational data was available. We alsoevaluated the predicted water temperature and/or ice and snow thicknesses for ten other lakes where less comprehensive forcing observations were available. CLM4-LISSS performed very well compared to observations for shallow to medium-depth small lakes. For large, deep lakes, the under-prediction of mixing was improved by increasing the lake eddy diffusivity by a factor of 10, consistent with previouspublished analyses. Surface temperature and surface flux predictions were improved when the aerodynamic roughness lengths were calculated as a function of friction velocity, rather than using a constant value of 1 mm or greater. We evaluated the sensitivity of surface energy fluxes to modeled lake processes and parameters. Largechanges in monthly-averaged surface fluxes (up to 30 W m22 were found when excluding snow insulation or phase change physics and when varying the opacity, depth, albedo of melting lake ice, and mixing strength across ranges commonly found in real lakes. Typical

  19. Antarctic Cenozoic climate history from sedimentary records: ANDRILL and beyond.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKay, R M; Barrett, P J; Levy, R S; Naish, T R; Golledge, N R; Pyne, A

    2016-01-28

    Mounting evidence from models and geological data implies that the Antarctic Ice Sheet may behave in an unstable manner and retreat rapidly in response to a warming climate, which is a key factor motivating efforts to improve estimates of Antarctic ice volume contributions to future sea-level rise. Here, we review Antarctic cooling history since peak temperatures of the Middle Eocene Climatic Optimum (approx. 50 Ma) to provide a framework for future initiatives to recover sediment cores from subglacial lakes and sedimentary basins in Antarctica's continental interior. While the existing inventory of cores has yielded important insights into the biotic and climatic evolution of Antarctica, strata have numerous and often lengthy time breaks, providing a framework of 'snapshots' through time. Further cores, and more work on existing cores, are needed to reconcile Antarctic records with the more continuous 'far-field' records documenting the evolution of global ice volume and deep-sea temperature. To achieve this, we argue for an integrated portfolio of drilling and coring missions that encompasses existing methodologies using ship- and sea-ice-/ice-shelf-based drilling platforms as well as recently developed seafloor-based drilling and subglacial access systems. We conclude by reviewing key technological issues that will need to be overcome.

  20. Response of the Antarctic ice sheet to ocean forcing using the POPSICLES coupled ice sheet-ocean model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, D. F.; Asay-Davis, X.; Price, S. F.; Cornford, S. L.; Maltrud, M. E.; Ng, E. G.; Collins, W.

    2014-12-01

    We present the response of the continental Antarctic ice sheet to sub-shelf-melt forcing derived from POPSICLES simulation results covering the full Antarctic Ice Sheet and the Southern Ocean spanning the period 1990 to 2010. Simulations are performed at 0.1 degree (~5 km) ocean resolution and ice sheet resolution as fine as 500 m using adaptive mesh refinement. A comparison of fully-coupled and comparable standalone ice-sheet model results demonstrates the importance of two-way coupling between the ice sheet and the ocean. The POPSICLES model couples the POP2x ocean model, a modified version of the Parallel Ocean Program (Smith and Gent, 2002), and the BISICLES ice-sheet model (Cornford et al., 2012). BISICLES makes use of adaptive mesh refinement to fully resolve dynamically-important regions like grounding lines and employs a momentum balance similar to the vertically-integrated formulation of Schoof and Hindmarsh (2009). Results of BISICLES simulations have compared favorably to comparable simulations with a Stokes momentum balance in both idealized tests like MISMIP3D (Pattyn et al., 2013) and realistic configurations (Favier et al. 2014). POP2x includes sub-ice-shelf circulation using partial top cells (Losch, 2008) and boundary layer physics following Holland and Jenkins (1999), Jenkins (2001), and Jenkins et al. (2010). Standalone POP2x output compares well with standard ice-ocean test cases (e.g., ISOMIP; Losch, 2008) and other continental-scale simulations and melt-rate observations (Kimura et al., 2013; Rignot et al., 2013). A companion presentation, "Present-day circum-Antarctic simulations using the POPSICLES coupled land ice-ocean model" in session C027 describes the ocean-model perspective of this work, while we focus on the response of the ice sheet and on details of the model. The figure shows the BISICLES-computed vertically-integrated ice velocity field about 1 month into a 20-year coupled Antarctic run. Groundling lines are shown in green.

  1. Ecological controls on biogeochemical lfuxes in the western Antarctic Peninsula studied with an inverse foodweb model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Hugh W Ducklow; S C Doney; S F Sailley

    2015-01-01

    Sea ice in the western Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) region is both highly variable and rapidly changing. In the Palmer Station region, the ice season duration has decreased by 92 d since 1978. The sea-ice changes affect ocean stratification and freshwater balance and in turn impact every component of the polar marine ecosystem. Long-term observations from the WAP nearshore and offshore regions show a pattern of chlorophyll (Chl) variability with three to ifve years of negative Chl anomalies interrupted by one or two years of positive anomalies (high and low Chl regimes). Both ifeld observations and results from an inverse food-web model show that these high and low Chl regimes differed significantly from each other, with high primary productivity and net community production (NCP) and other rates associated with the high Chl years and low rates with low Chl years. Gross primary production rates (GPP) averaged 30 mmolC.m-2.d-1 in the low Chl years and 100 mmolC.m-2.d-1 in the high Chl years. Both large and small phytoplankton were more abundant and more productive in high Chl years than in low Chl years. Similarly, krill were more important as grazers in high Chl years, but did not differ from microzooplankton in high or low Chl years. Microzooplankton did not differ between high and low Chl years. Net community production differed signiifcantly between high and low Chl years, but mobilized a similar proportion of GPP in both high and low Chl years. The composition of the NCP was uniform in high and low Chl years. These results emphasize the importance of microbial components in the WAP plankton system and suggest that food webs dominated by small phytoplankton can have pathways that funnel production into NCP, and likely, export.

  2. An evaluation of the simulation of the edge of the Antarctic vortex by chemistry-climate models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Struthers

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available The dynamical barrier to meridional mixing at the edge of the Antarctic spring stratospheric vortex is examined. Diagnostics are presented which demonstrate the link between the shape of the meridional mixing barrier at the edge of the vortex and the meridional gradients in total column ozone across the vortex edge. Results derived from reanalysis and measurement data sets are compared with equivalent diagnostics from five coupled chemistry-climate models to test how well the models capture the interaction between the dynamical structure of the stratospheric vortex and the chemical processes occurring within the vortex. Results show that the accuracy of the simulation of the dynamical vortex edge varies widely amongst the models studied here. This affects the ability of the models to simulate the large observed meridional gradients in total column ozone. Three of the models in this study simulated the inner edge of the vortex to be more than 7° closer to the pole than observed. This is expected to have important implications for how well these models simulate the extent of severe springtime ozone loss that occurs within the Antarctic vortex.

  3. The Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research (SCAR) in the IPY 2007-2009

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kennicutt, M. C.; Wilson, T. J.; Summerhayes, C.

    2005-05-01

    The Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research (SCAR) initiates, develops, and coordinates international scientific research in the Antarctic region. SCAR is assuming a leadership position in the IPY primarily through its five major Scientific Research Programs; ACE, SALE, EBA, AGCS, and ICESTAR; which will be briefly described.Antarctic Climate Evolution (ACE) promotes the exchange of data and ideas between research groups focusing on the evolution of Antarctica's climate system and ice sheet. The program will: (1) quantitatively assess the climate and glacial history of Antarctica; (2) identify the processes which govern Antarctic change and feed back around the globe; (3) improve our ability to model past changes in Antarctica; and (4)document past change to predict future change in Antarctica. Subglacial Antarctic Lake Environments (SALE) promotes, facilitates, and champions cooperation and collaboration in the exploration and study of subglacial environments in Antarctica. SALE intends to understand the complex interplay of biological, geological, chemical, glaciological, and physical processes within subglacial lake environments through coordinated international research teams. Evolution and Biodiversity in the Antarctic (EBA) will use a suite of modern techniques and interdisciplinary approaches, to explore the evolutionary history of selected modern Antarctic biota, examine how modern biological diversity in the Antarctic influences the way present-day ecosystems function, and thereby predict how the biota may respond to future environmental change. Antarctica and the Global Climate System (AGCS) will investigate the nature of the atmospheric and oceanic linkages between the climate of the Antarctic and the rest of the Earth system, and the mechanisms involved therein. A combination of modern instrumented records of atmospheric and oceanic conditions, and the climate signals held within ice cores will be used to understand past and future climate

  4. Large ensemble modeling of last deglacial retreat of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet: comparison of simple and advanced statistical techniques

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Pollard

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available A 3-D hybrid ice-sheet model is applied to the last deglacial retreat of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet over the last ~ 20 000 years. A large ensemble of 625 model runs is used to calibrate the model to modern and geologic data, including reconstructed grounding lines, relative sea-level records, elevation-age data and uplift rates, with an aggregate score computed for each run that measures overall model-data misfit. Two types of statistical methods are used to analyze the large-ensemble results: simple averaging weighted by the aggregate score, and more advanced Bayesian techniques involving Gaussian process-based emulation and calibration, and Markov chain Monte Carlo. Results for best-fit parameter ranges and envelopes of equivalent sea-level rise with the simple averaging method agree quite well with the more advanced techniques, but only for a large ensemble with full factorial parameter sampling. Best-fit parameter ranges confirm earlier values expected from prior model tuning, including large basal sliding coefficients on modern ocean beds. Each run is extended 5000 years into the "future" with idealized ramped climate warming. In the majority of runs with reasonable scores, this produces grounding-line retreat deep into the West Antarctic interior, and the analysis provides sea-level-rise envelopes with well defined parametric uncertainty bounds.

  5. Large ensemble modeling of last deglacial retreat of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet: comparison of simple and advanced statistical techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pollard, D.; Chang, W.; Haran, M.; Applegate, P.; DeConto, R.

    2015-11-01

    A 3-D hybrid ice-sheet model is applied to the last deglacial retreat of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet over the last ~ 20 000 years. A large ensemble of 625 model runs is used to calibrate the model to modern and geologic data, including reconstructed grounding lines, relative sea-level records, elevation-age data and uplift rates, with an aggregate score computed for each run that measures overall model-data misfit. Two types of statistical methods are used to analyze the large-ensemble results: simple averaging weighted by the aggregate score, and more advanced Bayesian techniques involving Gaussian process-based emulation and calibration, and Markov chain Monte Carlo. Results for best-fit parameter ranges and envelopes of equivalent sea-level rise with the simple averaging method agree quite well with the more advanced techniques, but only for a large ensemble with full factorial parameter sampling. Best-fit parameter ranges confirm earlier values expected from prior model tuning, including large basal sliding coefficients on modern ocean beds. Each run is extended 5000 years into the "future" with idealized ramped climate warming. In the majority of runs with reasonable scores, this produces grounding-line retreat deep into the West Antarctic interior, and the analysis provides sea-level-rise envelopes with well defined parametric uncertainty bounds.

  6. [Ecotourism exploitation model in Bita Lake Natural Reserve of Yunnan].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, G; Wang, Y; Zhong, L

    2000-12-01

    Bita lake provincial natural reserve is located in Shangri-La region of North-western Yunnan, and was set as a demonstrating area for ecotourism exploitation in 1998. After a year's exploitation construction and half a year's operation as a branch of the 99' Kunming International Horticulture Exposition to accept tourists, it was proved that the ecotourism demonstrating area attained four integrated functions of ecotourism, i.e., tourism, protection, poverty clearing and environment education. Five exploitation and management models including function zoned exploitation model, featured tourism communication model signs system designing model, local Tibetan family reception model and environmental monitoring model, were also successful, which were demonstrated and spreaded to the whole province. Bita lake provincial natural reserve could be a good sample for the ecotourism exploitation natural reserves of the whole country.

  7. A new 100-m Digital Elevation Model of the Antarctic Peninsula derived from ASTER Global DEM: methods and accuracy assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. J. Cook

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available A high resolution surface topography Digital Elevation Model (DEM is required to underpin studies of the complex glacier system on the Antarctic Peninsula. A complete DEM with better than 200 m pixel size and high positional and vertical accuracy would enable mapping of all significant glacial basins and provide a dataset for glacier morphology analyses. No currently available DEM meets these specifications. We present a new 100-m DEM of the Antarctic Peninsula (63–70° S, based on ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model (GDEM data. The raw GDEM products are of high-quality on the rugged terrain and coastal-regions of the Antarctic Peninsula and have good geospatial accuracy, but they also contain large errors on ice-covered terrain and we seek to minimise these artefacts. Conventional data correction techniques do not work so we have developed a method that significantly improves the dataset, smoothing the erroneous regions and hence creating a DEM with a pixel size of 100 m that will be suitable for many glaciological applications. We evaluate the new DEM using ICESat-derived elevations, and perform horizontal and vertical accuracy assessments based on GPS positions, SPOT-5 DEMs and the Landsat Image Mosaic of Antarctica (LIMA imagery. The new DEM has a mean elevation difference of −4 m (± 25 m RMSE from ICESat (compared to −13 m mean and ±97 m RMSE for the original ASTER GDEM, and a horizontal error of less than 2 pixels, although elevation accuracies are lower on mountain peaks and steep-sided slopes. The correction method significantly reduces errors on low relief slopes and therefore the DEM can be regarded as suitable for topographical studies such as measuring the geometry and ice flow properties of glaciers on the Antarctic Peninsula. The DEM is available for download from the NSIDC website: http://nsidc.org/data/nsidc-0516.html (Estimates of lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) diet in Lake Ontario using two and three isotope mixing models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colborne, Scott F.; Rush, Scott A.; Paterson, Gordon; Johnson, Timothy B.; Lantry, Brian F.; Fisk, Aaron T.

    2016-01-01

    Recent development of multi-dimensional stable isotope models for estimating both foraging patterns and niches have presented the analytical tools to further assess the food webs of freshwater populations. One approach to refine predictions from these analyses is to include a third isotope to the more common two-isotope carbon and nitrogen mixing models to increase the power to resolve different prey sources. We compared predictions made with two-isotope carbon and nitrogen mixing models and three-isotope models that also included sulphur (δ34S) for the diets of Lake Ontario lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush). We determined the isotopic compositions of lake trout and potential prey fishes sampled from Lake Ontario and then used quantitative estimates of resource use generated by two- and three-isotope Bayesian mixing models (SIAR) to infer feeding patterns of lake trout. Both two- and three-isotope models indicated that alewife (Alosa pseudoharengus) and round goby (Neogobius melanostomus) were the primary prey items, but the three-isotope models were more consistent with recent measures of prey fish abundances and lake trout diets. The lake trout sampled directly from the hatcheries had isotopic compositions derived from the hatchery food which were distinctively different from those derived from the natural prey sources. Those hatchery signals were retained for months after release, raising the possibility to distinguish hatchery-reared yearlings and similarly sized naturally reproduced lake trout based on isotopic compositions. Addition of a third-isotope resulted in mixing model results that confirmed round goby have become an important component of lake trout diet and may be overtaking alewife as a prey resource.

  8. A model for landscape development in terms of shoreline displacement, sediment dynamics, lake formation, and lake choke-up processes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brydsten, Lars [Umeaa University, Dept. of Ecology and Environmental Science (Sweden)

    2006-12-15

    This project expands on the study 'A mathematical model for lake ontogeny in terms of filling with sediments and macrophyte vegetation' published in SKB TR-04-09. As the title suggests, this older model focuses on lakes (existing and future lakes). This newer study extends the model to examine progress of terrestrial objects such as mires or arable land. Furthermore, this newer model could simulate progress of the areas close to the objects. These areas are divided according to their watershed boundaries. If two or more objects are situated along the same brook, the lower situated area is defined as its catchments minus the catchments of the closest higher situated object. The model encourages the study of an object situated in the sea from the time of deglaciation (c. 10,000 BP) to the time for the object due to positive shore displacement is situated on land or that a lake object has progressed to a wetland, however not longer than 18,000 AP. The model focuses on the object and its location in 100-year steps. The model is written in VisualBasic and is divided into two modules, a marine module and a lake module. The marine module deals with shoreline displacement, erosion and accumulation of postglacial fine-grained sediments and erosion of glacial clay. Inputs to the marine module are a digital elevation model (DEM), a digital map showing the extension of the objects and a marine quaternary map. The two maps are in raster formats with exactly the same formats (extension and cell sizes) as the DEM. For each time step the water depths at each pixel are calculated using a shore displacement equation. Next, the water depth changes due to sediment dynamics are calculated using the following rules; accumulation of fine-grained sediments are allowed if the pixel is situated within a future lake object; erosion of fine-grained sediment is allowed if the pixel is not within a future lake object and the marine quaternary map shows occurrence of postglacial

  9. Future surface mass balance of the Antarctic ice sheet and its influence on sea level change, simulated by a regional atmospheric climate model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ligtenberg, S.R.M.; van de Berg, W.J.; van den Broeke, M.R.; Rae, J.G.L.; van Meijgaard, E.

    2013-01-01

    A regional atmospheric climate model with multi-layer snow module (RACMO2) is forced at the lateral boundaries by global climate model (GCM) data to assess the future climate and surface mass balance (SMB) of the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS). Two different GCMs (ECHAM5 until 2100 and HadCM3 until 2200)

  10. Modelling hourly rates of evaporation from small lakes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. J. Granger

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents the results of a field study of open water evaporation carried out on three small lakes in Western and Northern Canada. In this case small lakes are defined as those for which the temperature above the water surface is governed by the upwind land surface conditions; that is, a continuous boundary layer exists over the lake, and large-scale atmospheric effects such as entrainment do not come into play. Lake evaporation was measured directly using eddy covariance equipment; profiles of wind speed, air temperature and humidity were also obtained over the water surfaces. Observations were made as well over the upwind land surface.

    The major factors controlling open water evaporation were examined. The study showed that for time periods shorter than daily, the open water evaporation bears no relationship to the net radiation; the wind speed is the most significant factor governing the evaporation rates, followed by the land-water temperature contrast and the land-water vapour pressure contrast. The effect of the stability on the wind field was demonstrated; relationships were developed relating the land-water wind speed contrast to the land-water temperature contrast. The open water period can be separated into two distinct evaporative regimes: the warming period in the Spring, when the land is warmer than the water, the turbulent fluxes over water are suppressed; and the cooling period, when the water is warmer than the land, the turbulent fluxes over water are enhanced.

    Relationships were developed between the hourly rates of lake evaporation and the following significant variables and parameters (wind speed, land-lake temperature and humidity contrasts, and the downwind distance from shore. The result is a relatively simple versatile model for estimating the hourly lake evaporation rates. The model was tested using two independent data sets. Results show that the modelled evaporation follows the observed values

  11. A conduit dilation model of methane venting from lake sediments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scandella, B.P.; Varadharajan, C.; Hemond, Harold F.; Ruppel, C.; Juanes, R.

    2011-01-01

    Methane is a potent greenhouse gas, but its effects on Earth's climate remain poorly constrained, in part due to uncertainties in global methane fluxes to the atmosphere. An important source of atmospheric methane is the methane generated in organic-rich sediments underlying surface water bodies, including lakes, wetlands, and the ocean. The fraction of the methane that reaches the atmosphere depends critically on the mode and spatiotemporal characteristics of free-gas venting from the underlying sediments. Here we propose that methane transport in lake sediments is controlled by dynamic conduits, which dilate and release gas as the falling hydrostatic pressure reduces the effective stress below the tensile strength of the sediments. We test our model against a four-month record of hydrostatic load and methane flux in Upper Mystic Lake, Mass., USA, and show that it captures the complex episodicity of methane ebullition. Our quantitative conceptualization opens the door to integrated modeling of methane transport to constrain global methane release from lakes and other shallow-water, organic-rich sediment systems, and to assess its climate feedbacks.

  12. Active lakes in Antarctica survive on a sedimentary substrate – Part 1: Theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. P. Carter

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Over the past decade satellite observations have revealed that active subglacial lake systems are widespread under the Antarctic ice sheet, including the ice streams, yet we have insufficient understanding of the lake-drainage process to incorporate it into ice sheet models. Process models for drainage of ice-dammed lakes based on conventional "R-channels" incised into the base of the ice through melting are unable to reproduce the timing and magnitude of drainage from Antarctic subglacial lakes estimated from satellite altimetry given the low hydraulic gradients along which such lakes drain. We developed a process model in which channels are mechanically eroded into deformable subglacial sediment (till instead ("T-channel". When applied to the known lakes of the Whillans/Mercer system, the model successfully reproduced the key characteristics of estimated lake volume changes for the period 2003–2009. If our model is realistic, it implies that most active lakes are shallow and only exist in the presence of saturated sediment, explaining why they are difficult to detect with classical radar methods. It also implies that the lake-drainage process is sensitive to the composition and strength of the underlying till, suggesting that models could be improved with a realistic treatment of sediment – interfacial water exchange.

  13. 21st Century Trends in Antarctic Temperature and Polar Stratospheric Cloud (PSC) Area in the GEOS Chemistry-Climate Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hurwitz, M. M.; Newman, P. A.

    2010-01-01

    This study examines trends in Antarctic temperature and APSC, a temperature proxy for the area of polar stratospheric clouds, in an ensemble of Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) chemistry-climate model (CCM) simulations of the 21st century. A selection of greenhouse gas, ozone-depleting substance, and sea surface temperature scenarios is used to test the trend sensitivity to these parameters. One scenario is used to compare temperature trends in two versions of the GEOS CCM. An extended austral winter season is examined in detail. In May, June, and July, the expected future increase in CO2-related radiative cooling drives temperature trends in the Antarctic lower stratosphere. At 50 hPa, a 1.3 K cooling is expected between 2000 and 2100. Ozone levels increase, despite this robust cooling signal and the consequent increase in APSC, suggesting the enhancement of stratospheric transport in future. In the lower stratosphere, the choice of climate change scenarios does not affect the magnitude of the early winter cooling. Midwinter temperature trends are generally small. In October, APSC trends have the same sign as the prescribed halogen trends. That is, there are negative APSC trends in "grealistic future" simulations, where halogen loading decreases in accordance with the Montreal Protocol and CO2 continues to increase. In these simulations, the speed of ozone recovery is not influenced by either the choice of sea surface temperature and greenhouse gas scenarios or by the model version.

  14. Uncertainty in the modelling of 137Cs turnover in lakes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In the context of the IAEA-CEC co-ordinated research programme on Validation of Environmental Model Predictions (VAMP), a generic model for lake ecosystems has been tested under a variety of environmental conditions. The main emphasis has been placed on predicting the levels of 137Cs in water and predatory fish, which are of most concern from a radiological point of view. 2 figs

  15. Eutrophication of Shallow Lakes: Modeling and Management. The Lake Balaton Case Study

    OpenAIRE

    Somlyody, L.; Herodek, S.; Fischer, J

    1983-01-01

    The phenomenon of eutrophication is more irregular in character and less satisfactorily understood for shallow water bodies than for deep lakes. Research, initiated by IIASA, focussed of Lake Balaton, Hungary, as the subject of a case study. Three main considerations promoted the selection of Lake Balaton: 1) a large amount of data was available, due to Hungarian research activities; 2) the lake possesses the "typical" properties of shallow lakes; and 3) serious economic interests are associ...

  16. Modeling Distribution and Abundance of Antarctic Baleen Whales Using Ships of Opportunity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Philip S. Hammond

    2006-06-01

    Full Text Available Information on animal abundance and distribution is at the cornerstone of many wildlife and conservation strategies. However, these data can be difficult and costly to obtain for cetacean species. The expense of sufficient ship time to conduct design-unbiased line transect surveys may be simply out of reach for researchers in many countries, which nonetheless grapple with problems of conservation of endangered species, by-catch of small cetaceans in commercial fisheries, and progression toward ecosystem-based fisheries management. Recently developed spatial modeling techniques show promise for estimating wildlife abundance using non-randomized surveys, but have yet to receive much field-testing in areas where designed surveys have also been conducted. Effort and sightings data were collected along 9 650 km of transects aboard ships of opportunity in the Southern Ocean during the austral summers of 2000–2001 and 2001–2002. Generalized additive models with generalized cross-validation were used to express heterogeneity of cetacean sightings as functions of spatial covariates. Models were used to map predicted densities and to estimate abundance of humpback, minke, and fin whales in the Drake Passage and along the Antarctic Peninsula. All species’ distribution maps showed strong density gradients, which were robust to jackknife resampling when each of 14 trips was removed sequentially with replacement. Looped animations of model predictions of whale density illustrate uncertainty in distribution estimates in a way that is informative to non-scientists. The best abundance estimate for humpback whales was 1 829 (95% CI: 978-3 422. Abundance of fin whales was 4 487 (95% CI: 1 326–15 179 and minke whales was 1,544 (95% CI: 1,221–1,953. These estimates agreed roughly with those reported from a designed survey conducted in the region during the previous austral summer. These estimates assumed that all animals on the trackline were

  17. Hydrodynamics and Water Quality: Modeling Rivers, Lakes, and Estuaries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Opdyke, Daniel

    2008-09-01

    The modeling of lakes, rivers, and estuaries is a fascinating subject that combines interesting facets of mathematics, statistics, physics, chemistry, and biology. Because of the complexity of natural systems, such modeling is always an approximation of the real world-and sometimes not a very good one. It is for this reason that modeling is not just science but also art. It is also for this reason that there are few good texts offering practical advice on modeling. Hydrodynamics and Water Quality makes a valiant attempt but is only partially successful because of the book's narrow focus on one family of models and an inconsistent presentation.

  18. Modelled present and future thaw lake area expansion/contraction trends throughout the continuous permafrost zone

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Mi

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Thaw lakes and drained lake basins are a dominant feature of Arctic lowlands. Thaw lakes are a source of the greenhouse gas methane (CH4, which is produced under anaerobic conditions, while drained lake basins are carbon sinks due to sedimentation. Besides feedbacks on climate, the development of thaw lakes due to the melt-out of ground ice and subsequent ground subsidence, can have significant impacts on the regional morphology, hydrology, geophysics and biogehemistry. Permafrost degradation as a result of climate warming, which is proceeding considerably faster in high latitude regions than the global average, could lead to either an increases in lake area due to lake expansion, or decrease due to lake drainage. However, which process will dominate is elusive. Therefore understanding thaw lake dynamics and quantifying the feedbacks related to thaw lake expansion and contraction are urgent questions to solve. We apply a stochastic model, THAWLAKE, on four representative Arctic sites, to reproduce recent lake dynamics (1963–2012 and predict for the future changes under various anticipated climate scenarios. The model simulations of current thaw lake cycles and expansion rates are comparable with data. Future lake expansions are limited by lake drainage. We suggest further improvements in the area of enhancing the hydrology component, and operation on larger scales to gauge the impacts on lacustrine morphology and greenhouse gas emissions.

  19. Prediction and setup of phytoplankton statistical model of Qiandaohu Lake

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    严力蛟; 全为民; 赵晓慧

    2004-01-01

    This research considers the mathematical relationship between concentration of Chla and seven environmental factors, i.e. Lake water temperature (T), Secci-depth (SD), pH, DO, CODMn, Total Nitrogen (TN), Total Phosphorus (TP).Stepwise linear regression of 1997 to 1999 monitoring data at each sampling point of Qiandaohu Lake yielded the multivariate regression models presented in this paper. The concentration of Chla as simulation for the year 2000 by the regression model was similar to the observed value. The suggested mathematical relationship could be used to predict changes in the lakewater environment at any point in time. The results showed that SD, TP and pH were the most significant factors affecting Chla concentration.

  1. Public lakes, private lakeshore: modeling protection of native aquatic plants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schroeder, Susan A; Fulton, David C

    2013-07-01

    Protection of native aquatic plants is an important proenvironmental behavior, because plant loss coupled with nutrient loading can produce changes in lake ecosystems. Removal of aquatic plants by lakeshore property owners is a diffuse behavior that may lead to cumulative impacts on lake ecosystems. This class of behavior is challenging to manage because collective impacts are not obvious to the actors. This paper distinguishes positive and negative beliefs about aquatic plants, in models derived from norm activation theory (Schwartz, Adv Exp Soc Psychol 10:221-279, 1977) and the theory of reasoned action (Fishbein and Ajzen, Belief, attitude, intention, and behavior: an introduction to theory and research, Addison-Wesley, Boston 1975), to examine protection of native aquatic plants by Minnesota lakeshore property owners. We clarify how positive and negative evaluations of native aquatic plants affect protection or removal of these plants. Results are based on a mail survey (n = 3,115). Results suggest that positive evaluations of aquatic plants (i.e., as valuable to lake ecology) may not connect with the global attitudes and behavioral intentions that direct plant protection or removal. Lakeshore property owners' behavior related to aquatic plants may be driven more by tangible personal benefits derived from accessible, carefully managed lakeshore than intentional action taken to sustain lake ecosystems. The limited connection of positive evaluations of aquatic plants to global attitudes and behavioral intentions may reflect either lack of knowledge of what actions are needed to protect lake health and/or unwillingness to lose perceived benefits derived from lakeshore property. PMID:23609308

  2. Stochastic Downscaling for Hydrodynamic and Ecological Modeling of Lakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schlabing, D.; Eder, M.; Frassl, M.; Rinke, K.; Bárdossy, A.

    2012-04-01

    Weather generators are of interest in climate impact studies, because they allow different modi operandi: (1) More realizations of the past, (2) possible futures as defined by the modeler and (3) possible futures according to the combination of greenhouse gas emission scenarios and their Global Circulation Model (GCM) consequences. Climate modeling has huge inherently unquantifiable uncertainties, yet the results present themselves as single point values without any measure of uncertainty. Given this reduction of risk-relevant information, stochastic downscaling offers itself as a tool to recover the variability present in local measurements. One should bear in mind that the lake models that are fed with downscaling results are themselves deterministic and single runs may prove to be misleading. Especially population dynamics simulated by ecological models are sensitive to very particular events in the input data. A way to handle this sensitivity is to perform Monte Carlo studies with varying meteorological driving forces using a weather generator. For these studies, the Vector-Autoregressive Weather generator (VG), which was first presented at the EGU 2011, was developed further. VG generates daily air temperature, humidity, long- and shortwave radiance and wind. Wind and shortwave radiation is subsequently disaggregated to hourly values, because their short term variability has proven important for the application. Changes relative to the long-term values are modeled as disturbances that act during the autoregressive generation of the synthetic time series. The method preserves the dependence structure between the variables, as changes in the disturbed variable, say temperature, are propagated to the other variables. The approach is flexible because the disturbances can be chosen freely. Changes in mean can be represented as constant disturbance, changes in variability as episodes of certain length and amplitude. The disturbances can also be extracted from GCMs

  3. WEPP modeling in the Great Lakes Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    The USDA-ARS Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model is a state-of-the-art physical process-based computer simulation model for estimating runoff, soil erosion, and sediment losses from a range of land management systems, including cropland, rangeland, and forests. The National Soil Erosion Re...

  4. Expanding Models of Lake Trophic State to Predict Cyanobacteria in Lakes: A Data Mining Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Background/Question/Methods: Cyanobacteria are a primary taxonomic group associated with harmful algal blooms in lakes. Understanding the drivers of cyanobacteria presence has important implications for lake management and for the protection of human and ecosystem health. Chloro...

  5. Modeling CO2 air dispersion from gas driven lake eruptions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chiodini, Giovanni; Costa, Antonio; Rouwet, Dmitri; Tassi, Franco

    2016-04-01

    The most tragic event of gas driven lake eruption occurred at Lake Nyos (Cameroon) on 21 August 1986, when a dense cloud of CO2 suffocated more than 1700 people and an uncounted number of animals in just one night. The event stimulated a series of researches aimed to understand gas origins, gas release mechanisms and strategies for gas hazard mitigation. Very few studies have been carried out for describing the transport of dense CO2 clouds in the atmosphere. Although from a theoretical point of view, gas dispersion can be fully studied by solving the complete equations system for mass, momentum and energy transport, in actual practice, different simplified models able to describe only specific phases or aspects have to be used. In order to simulate dispersion of a heavy gas and to assess the consequent hazard we used a model based on a shallow layer approach (TWODEE2). This technique which uses depth-averaged variables to describe the flow behavior of dense gas over complex topography represents a good compromise between the complexity of computational fluid dynamic models and the simpler integral models. Recently the model has been applied for simulating CO2 dispersion from natural gas emissions in Central Italy. The results have shown how the dispersion pattern is strongly affected by the intensity of gas release, the topography and the ambient wind speed. Here for the first time we applied TWODEE2 code to simulate the dispersion of the large CO2 clouds released by limnic eruptions. An application concerns the case of the 1986 event at lake Nyos. Some difficulties for the simulations were related to the lack of quantitative information: gas flux estimations are not well constrained, meteorological conditions are only qualitatively known, the digital model of the terrain is of poor quality. Different scenarios were taken into account in order to reproduce the qualitative observations available for such episode. The observations regard mainly the effects of gas on

  6. Evaporation Estimation of Rift Valley Lakes: Comparison of Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tibebe Dessalegne

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Evapotranspiration (ET accounts for a substantial amount of the water flux in the arid and semi-arid regions of the World. Accurate estimation of ET has been a challenge for hydrologists, mainly because of the spatiotemporal variability of the environmental and physical parameters governing the latent heat flux. In addition, most available ET models depend on intensive meteorological information for ET estimation. Such data are not available at the desired spatial and temporal scales in less developed and remote parts of the world. This limitation has necessitated the development of simple models that are less data intensive and provide ET estimates with acceptable level of accuracy. Remote sensing approach can also be applied to large areas where meteorological data are not available and field scale data collection is costly, time consuming and difficult. In areas like the Rift Valley regions of Ethiopia, the applicability of the Simple Method (Abtew Method of lake evaporation estimation and surface energy balance approach using remote sensing was studied. The Simple Method and a remote sensing-based lake evaporation estimates were compared to the Penman, Energy balance, Pan, Radiation and Complementary Relationship Lake Evaporation (CRLE methods applied in the region. Results indicate a good correspondence of the models outputs to that of the above methods. Comparison of the 1986 and 2000 monthly lake ET from the Landsat images to the Simple and Penman Methods show that the remote sensing and surface energy balance approach is promising for large scale applications to understand the spatial variation of the latent heat flux.

  7. Implementation and Evaluation of the Impact of a Lake Model in the French CNRM-CM Global Climate Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le Moigne, P.; Colin, J.; Decharme, B.

    2015-12-01

    In numerical weather prediction (NWP) and climate models, substantial efforts have been dedicated to the modeling of natural and ocean surfaces at the expense of lake surfaces. The increase of horizontal resolution of these models allow now to resolve smaller lakes. For that reason, accounting for lakes in modeling systems, has become challenging, especially in regions where lake fraction is high. The lake model FLake (Mironov, 2010) implemented in the surface modeling platform SURFEX (Masson et al., 2014) was first set up off-line at global scale driven by ERA-Interim reanalysis to estimate the best configuration of parameters such as lake depth and extinction coefficient of light, albedo of water, ice and snow. The 30-yr off-line simulations were evaluated for the biggest lakes against satellite surface temperature, freeze-up and break-up periods derived from ARC-Lake products. To assess the impact of lakes in the French CNRM-CM GCM, two global coupled simulations were performed, one with FLake model activated and the second where lakes were replaced by land. Results highlight a regional impact caused by the presence of lakes. Particularly a strong cooling and moistening effect in summertime in the lake vicinity is exhibited, with a direct impact on surface fluxes: stronger latent heat flux due to moister air, lower sensible heat flux due to thermal effects and stronger momentum flux caused by roughness effects.

  8. Antarctic Astrobiology

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKay, Christopher P.

    2003-01-01

    Stars may be cold and dry today but there is compelling evidence that earlier in its history Mars did have liquid water. This evidence comes from the images taken from orbital spacecraft. The dry valleys of Antarctica comprise the largest ice-free region on that continent. The valleys are a cold desert environment with mean annual temperatures of -20 C. The lakes in the dry valleys of Antarctica provide an example of the physical processes that can maintain large bodies of liquid water under mean annual temperatures well below freezing. Biologically these lakes are also important analogs because of the plankton and benthic communities of microorganisms that thrive there. Life could have existed in lakes on Mars an ecological similar conditions.

  9. Ventilation and dissolved oxygen cycle in Lake Superior: Insights from a numerical model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matsumoto, Katsumi; Tokos, Kathy S.; Gregory, Chad

    2015-09-01

    Ventilation and dissolved oxygen in Lake Superior are key factors that determine the fate of various natural and anthropogenic inputs to the lake. We employ an idealized age tracer and biogeochemical tracers in a realistically configured numerical model of Lake Superior to characterize its ventilation and dissolved O2 cycle. Our results indicate that Lake Superior is preferentially ventilated over rough bathymetry and that spring overturning following a very cold winter does not completely ventilate the lake interior. While this is unexpected for a dimictic lake, no part of the lake remains isolated from the atmosphere for more than 300 days. Our results also show that Lake Superior's oxygen cycle is dominated by solubility changes; as a result, the expected relationship between biological consumption of dissolved O2 and ventilation age does not manifest.

  10. Towards a tipping point? Exploring the capacity to self-regulate Antarctic tourism using agent-based modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Student, J.R.; Amelung, B.; Lamers, M.A.J.

    2016-01-01

    Antarctica attracts tourists who want to explore its unique nature and landscapes. Antarctic tourism has rapidly grown since 1991 and is currently picking up again after the recent global economic downturn. Tourism activities are subject to the rules of the Antarctic Treaty System (ATS) and the deci

  11. Generalised additive models to investigate environmental drivers of Antarctic minke whale (Balaenoptera bonaerensis) spatial density in austral summer

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beekmans, B.W.P.M.; Forcada, J.; Murphy, E.J.; Baar, H.J.W.; Bathmann, U.V.; Fleming, A.H.

    2010-01-01

    There is a need to characterise the physical environment associated with Antarctic minke whale density in order to understand long-term changes in minke whale distribution and density in open waters of the Southern Ocean during austral summer months. To investigate environmental drivers of Antarctic

  12. The role of organic ligands in iron cycling and primary productivity in the Antarctic Peninsula: A modeling study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Mingshun; Barbeau, Katherine A.; Selph, Karen E.; Measures, Christopher I.; Buck, Kristen N.; Azam, Farooq; Greg Mitchell, B.; Zhou, Meng

    2013-06-01

    Iron (Fe) is the limiting nutrient for primary productivity in the Southern Ocean, with much of the dissolved iron (dFe) bound to organic ligands or colloids. A Fe model for the Southern Ocean (SOFe) is developed to understand the role of bacteria and organic ligands in controlling Fe cycling and productivity. The model resolves the classical food web and microbial loop, including three types of nutrients (N, Si, Fe) and two types of Fe ligands. Simulations of the zero-dimensional (0-D) model are calibrated with detailed results of shipboard grow-out incubation experiments conducted with Antarctic Peninsula phytoplankton communities during winter 2006 to provide the best estimate of key biological parameters. Then a one-dimensional (1-D) model is developed by coupling the biological model with the Regional Oceanic Modeling System (ROMS) for a site on the Antarctic Peninsula shelf, and the model parameters are further calibrated with data collected from two surveys (summer 2004 and winter 2006) in the area. The results of the numerical simulations agree reasonably well with observations. An analysis of the 1-D model results suggests that bacteria and organic ligands may play an important role in Fe cycling, which can be categorized into a relatively fast mode within the euphotic zone dominated by photo-reactions (summer d Fe residence time about 600 days) and complexation and a slow mode below with most of the dFe biologically complexed (summer dFe residence time >10 years). The dFe removal from the euphotic zone is dominated by colloidal formation and further aggregations with additional contribution from biological uptake, and an increase of organic ligands would reduce Fe export. The decrease of Fe removal rate over depth is due to the continuous dissolution and remineralization of particulate Fe. A number of sensitivity experiments are carried out for both 0-D and 1-D models to understand the importance of photo-reactive processes in primary productivity

  13. Modeling methane emissions from arctic lakes: Model development and site-level study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, Zeli; Zhuang, Qianlai; Walter Anthony, Katey

    2015-06-01

    To date, methane emissions from lakes in the pan-arctic region are poorly quantified. In order to investigate the response of methane emissions from this region to global warming, a process-based climate-sensitive lake biogeochemical model was developed. The processes of methane production, oxidation, and transport were modeled within a one-dimensional sediment and water column. The sizes of 14C-enriched and 14C-depleted carbon pools were explicitly parameterized. The model was validated using observational data from five lakes located in Siberia and Alaska, representing a large variety of environmental conditions in the arctic. The model simulations agreed well with the measured water temperature and dissolved CH4 concentration (mean error less than 1°C and 0.2 μM, respectively). The modeled CH4 fluxes were consistent with observations in these lakes. We found that bubbling-rate-controlling nitrogen (N2) stripping was the most important factor in determining CH4 fraction in bubbles. Lake depth and ice cover thickness in shallow waters were also controlling factors. This study demonstrated that the thawing of Pleistocene-aged organic-rich yedoma can fuel sediment methanogenesis by supplying a large quantity of labile organic carbon. Observations and modeling results both confirmed that methane emission rate at thermokarst margins of yedoma lakes was much larger (up to 538 mg CH4 m-2 d-1) than that at nonthermokarst zones in the same lakes and a nonyedoma, nonthermokarst lake (less than 42 mg CH4 m-2 d-1). The seasonal variability of methane emissions can be explained primarily by energy input and organic carbon availability.

  14. Modelling of hydrodynamics and mecury transport in lake Velenje. Part 2, Modelling and model verification

    OpenAIRE

    Kotnik, Jože; ŽAGAR, Dušan; Rajar, Rudi; Horvat, Milena

    2004-01-01

    PCFLOW3D - a three-dimensional mathematical model that was developed at the Chair of Fluid Mechanics of the Faculty of Civil and Geodetic Engineering, University of Ljubljana, was used for hydrodynamic and Hg transport simulations in Lake Velenje. The model is fully non-linear and computes three velocity components, water elevation and pressure. Transport-dispersion equations for salinity and heat (and/or any pollutant) are further used to compute the distributions of these par...

  15. Influence of Antarctic Ice Sheet Lowering on the Southern Hemisphere Climate: Model Experiments Mimicking the Mid-Miocene

    Science.gov (United States)

    Justino, Flavio; Stordal, Frode

    2013-04-01

    Conditions in Antarctica have varied substantially in the Earth's climate history. During the early Miocene (23-17 Ma), as suggested by records from the Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Sites 1090 and 1218, the ice volume was approximately 50%-125% of its present-day values. It has been argued that the rapid Cenozoic glaciation of Antarctica was induced by a decline in atmospheric CO2 from 4 times to 2 times preindustrial atmospheric level over a 10-Myr period. Minor contributions to this glaciation have also been associated with the opening of Southern Ocean gateways between Antarctica and the Australia-Tasmanian Passage, and Antarctica and the South America-Drake Passage, although it has been argued that the total amount of water owing in the Drake passage during the Eocene/Oligocene boundary may have been insufficient for reducing the poleward heat transport. The AIS is responsible for the greater amount of reflected solar radiation in the SH, and has significantly influenced meridional circulation due to its role in the characterization of the latitudinal thermal gradient. Moreover significant interaction between the polar and tropical regions through the link between the ENSO and West Antarctica has been demonstrated. It has been suggested that warming episodes during the Miocene were closely related to small changes in the Southern Ocean's freshwater balance. Paleorecords (ODP Sites 1090 and 1218) have also been utilized to disentangle the nature of deep-sea water mass. The analyses have demonstrated that warmer bottom water coexisted with increased production of Antarctic Bottom Water during the Plio-Pleistocene (1.6Ma) compared to today. We have investigated impacts of changes to the AIS topography on the climate system by using a coupled climate model, an Earth Model of Intermediate Complexity (EMIC), namely Speedy-Ocean (SPEEDO). We have designed experiments to inter-compare the nature of the atmospheric and oceanic circulation under modern conditions and

  16. The Lake Tahoe Basin Land Use Simulation Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forney, William M.; Oldham, I. Benson

    2011-01-01

    This U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report describes the final modeling product for the Tahoe Decision Support System project for the Lake Tahoe Basin funded by the Southern Nevada Public Land Management Act and the U.S. Geological Survey's Geographic Analysis and Monitoring Program. This research was conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey Western Geographic Science Center. The purpose of this report is to describe the basic elements of the novel Lake Tahoe Basin Land Use Simulation Model, publish samples of the data inputs, basic outputs of the model, and the details of the Python code. The results of this report include a basic description of the Land Use Simulation Model, descriptions and summary statistics of model inputs, two figures showing the graphical user interface from the web-based tool, samples of the two input files, seven tables of basic output results from the web-based tool and descriptions of their parameters, and the fully functional Python code.

  17. Hydrodynamic modelling and characterisation of a shallow fluvial lake: a study on the Superior Lake of Mantua

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrea Fenocchi

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a numerical modelling framework developed to simulate circulations and to generally characterise the hydrodynamics of the Superior Lake of Mantua, a shallow fluvial lake in Northern Italy. Such eutrophied basin is characterised by low winds, reduced discharges during the summer and by the presence of large lotus flower (Nelumbo nucifera meadows, all contributing to water stagnation. A hydrodynamic numerical model was built to understand how physical drivers shape basic circulation dynamics, selecting appropriate methodologies for the lake. These include a 3D code to reproduce the interaction between wind and through-flowing current, a fetch-dependent wind stress model, a porous media approach for canopy flow resistance and the consideration of wave-current interaction. The model allowed to estimate the circulation modes and water residence time distributions under identified typical ordinary, storm and drought conditions, the hydrodynamic influence of the newly-opened secondary outlet of the lake, the surface wave parameters, their influence on circulations and the bottom stress they originate, and the adaptation time scales of circulations to storm events. Some probable effects of the obtained hydrodynamic characteristics of the Superior Lake of Mantua on its biochemical processes are also introduced.

  18. A generic dynamic model of Cs-137 turnover in Nordic lakes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The purpose of this study was to design a generic model for long-term predictions of the Cs-137 concentration in lakes, emphasizing the secondary load of radiocaesium to the waterbody from lake sediments and drainage area. If the concentration of Cs-137 in lake waters can be accurately predicted, estimates of concentration in fish will be more reliable. The inflow from the drainage area is estimated from the fraction of outflow areas, whereas resuspension from lake sediments is estimated from the maximum depth and surface area. The model is based on compartment theory. Modelling results for six lakes are presented. There was very good agreement between model results and observed values, for both water and lake sediments, although there were minor discrepancies for sediments in the deepest lakes. Analyses of the model results showed that, for deep lakes, the main contribution maintaining the concentration in lake waters is inflows from the drainage area, whereas for shallow lakes, the main factor is resuspension for caesium rich sediments. (Author)

  19. Does lake size matter? Combining morphology and process modeling to examine the contribution of lake classes to population-scale processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winslow, Luke A.; Read, Jordan S.; Hanson, Paul C.; Stanley, Emily H.

    2014-01-01

    With lake abundances in the thousands to millions, creating an intuitive understanding of the distribution of morphology and processes in lakes is challenging. To improve researchers’ understanding of large-scale lake processes, we developed a parsimonious mathematical model based on the Pareto distribution to describe the distribution of lake morphology (area, perimeter and volume). While debate continues over which mathematical representation best fits any one distribution of lake morphometric characteristics, we recognize the need for a simple, flexible model to advance understanding of how the interaction between morphometry and function dictates scaling across large populations of lakes. These models make clear the relative contribution of lakes to the total amount of lake surface area, volume, and perimeter. They also highlight the critical thresholds at which total perimeter, area and volume would be evenly distributed across lake size-classes have Pareto slopes of 0.63, 1 and 1.12, respectively. These models of morphology can be used in combination with models of process to create overarching “lake population” level models of process. To illustrate this potential, we combine the model of surface area distribution with a model of carbon mass accumulation rate. We found that even if smaller lakes contribute relatively less to total surface area than larger lakes, the increasing carbon accumulation rate with decreasing lake size is strong enough to bias the distribution of carbon mass accumulation towards smaller lakes. This analytical framework provides a relatively simple approach to upscaling morphology and process that is easily generalizable to other ecosystem processes.

  20. Stochastic modeling of Lake Van water level time series with jumps and multiple trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aksoy, H.; Unal, N. E.; Eris, E.; Yuce, M. I.

    2013-06-01

    In the 1990s, water level in the closed-basin Lake Van located in the Eastern Anatolia, Turkey, has risen up about 2 m. Analysis of the hydrometeorological data shows that change in the water level is related to the water budget of the lake. In this study, stochastic models are proposed for simulating monthly water level data. Two models considering mono- and multiple-trend time series are developed. The models are derived after removal of trend and periodicity in the dataset. Trend observed in the lake water level time series is fitted by mono- and multiple-trend lines. In the so-called mono-trend model, the time series is treated as a whole under the hypothesis that the lake water level has an increasing trend. In the second model (so-called multiple-trend), the time series is divided into a number of segments to each a linear trend can be fitted separately. Application on the lake water level data shows that four segments, each fitted with a trend line, are meaningful. Both the mono- and multiple-trend models are used for simulation of synthetic lake water level time series under the hypothesis that the observed mono- and multiple-trend structure of the lake water level persist during the simulation period. The multiple-trend model is found better for planning the future infrastructural projects in surrounding areas of the lake as it generates higher maxima for the simulated lake water level.

  1. Stochastic modeling of Lake Van water level time series with jumps and multiple trends

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Aksoy

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available In the 1990s, water level in the closed-basin Lake Van located in the Eastern Anatolia, Turkey, has risen up about 2 m. Analysis of the hydrometeorological data shows that change in the water level is related to the water budget of the lake. In this study, stochastic models are proposed for simulating monthly water level data. Two models considering mono- and multiple-trend time series are developed. The models are derived after removal of trend and periodicity in the dataset. Trend observed in the lake water level time series is fitted by mono- and multiple-trend lines. In the so-called mono-trend model, the time series is treated as a whole under the hypothesis that the lake water level has an increasing trend. In the second model (so-called multiple-trend, the time series is divided into a number of segments to each a linear trend can be fitted separately. Application on the lake water level data shows that four segments, each fitted with a trend line, are meaningful. Both the mono- and multiple-trend models are used for simulation of synthetic lake water level time series under the hypothesis that the observed mono- and multiple-trend structure of the lake water level persist during the simulation period. The multiple-trend model is found better for planning the future infrastructural projects in surrounding areas of the lake as it generates higher maxima for the simulated lake water level.

  2. Mathematical modelling of positive carbon-climate feedback: permafrost lake methane emission case

    OpenAIRE

    Sudakov, I. A.; S. A. Vakulenko

    2012-01-01

    The permafrost methane emission problem is in the focus of attention of different climate models. We present new approach to the permafrost methane emission modeling. The tundra permafrost lakes is potential source of methane emission. Typically, tundra landscape contains a number of small lakes and warming leads to lake extension. We are making use of this process by the nonlinear theory of phase transitions. We find that climate catastrophe possibility depends on a feedback coefficient conn...

  3. Mathematical modelling of positive carbon-climate feedback: permafrost lake methane emission case

    OpenAIRE

    Sudakov, I. A.; S. A. Vakulenko

    2012-01-01

    The permafrost methane emission problem is in the focus of attention of different climate models. We present new approach to the permafrost methane emission modeling. The tundra permafrost lakes is potential source of methane emission. Typically, tundra landscape contains a number of small lakes and warming leads to lake extension. We are making use of this process by the nonlinear theory of phase transitions. We find that climate catastrophe possibility depends on a feedbac...

  4. Measurement and modeling of radiance reflectance in Garda Lake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferratini, Silvia; Giardino, Claudia; Pierson, Donald C.; Stroembeck, Niklas; Zilioli, Eugenio

    2000-12-01

    A simple model which predicts radiance reflectance below the water surface as a function of the concentrations of chlorophyll, colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM), and suspended particulate material (SPIM) was applied in Garda lake, the largest freshwater basin in Italy and one of the most important of the European Union. The model is similar to others developed for oceanic and coastal waters predicting the radiance reflectance as a function of two inherent optical properties of water: the absorption coefficient and the backscattering coefficient. Three stations were sampled in January '98 in the southern part of Garda lake. Samples of water were collected just below the water surface to extract the optically active substances. Two underwater radiometers assembled on the same probe provided the measurement of downwelling irradiance and up welling radiance, respectively. At the same time the apparent optical properties were collected above the water volume by using a spectro radiometer. The simulated radiance reflectance spectra were compared to the ones measured and significant correlations were retrieved.

  5. Modeling the Impact of Snow Drift on the Decameter-Scale Variability of Snow Properties on the Antarctic Plateau

    Science.gov (United States)

    Libois, Q.; Picard, G.; Arnaud, L.; Morin, S.; Brun, E.

    2015-12-01

    On the Antarctic Plateau, the annual snow accumulation and the physical properties of snow close to the surface are characterized by a large spatial variability at the scale of a few metres. As a consequence, two snowpits measured a few metres apart from each other can show significant differences. This variability mainly results from the combination of low annual amounts of precipitation and drift events that redistribute snow. The latter physical process is not simulated by one-dimensional snow evolution models. Here we describe how the detailed snowpack model Crocus is adapted to Antarctic conditions and modified to account for this drift-induced variability using a stochastic snow redistribution scheme. For this, 50 simulations are run in parallel and the corresponding numerical snowpacks are allowed to exchange snow mass according to rules driven by wind speed and snow characteristics. These simple rules were developed and calibrated based on in situ pictures of the snow surface recorded at Dome C for two years, which show the occurrence of snow drift and its impact on snow height variations. At Dome C, the results of these parallel simulations show three substantial improvements with respect to standard Crocus simulations. First, significant and rapid variations of snow height observed in hourly measurements are well reproduced, highlighting the crucial role of snow drift in snow accumulation. Second, the statistics of annual accumulation is successfully simulated, including the years with negative net ablation which are as frequent as 15% in the observations and 11% in the simulation. Eventually, the simulated vertical profiles of snow density and specific surface area down to 50 cm depth are compared to 98 profiles measured at Dome C during the summer 2012-2013. The observed spatial variability is partly reproduced by the new model, especially close to the surface. The erosion/deposition processes also explain why layers with density lower than 250 kg m-3

  6. Nonlinear resonances and mixing in a simple shallow lake model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sandor, Balazs

    2013-04-01

    Large-scale transport in environmental flows is often dominantly determined by the velocity field of the flow. Diffusion of certain quantities, like pollutants and temperature, can be neglected with respect to advective transport. Understanding the topological features of the velocity field is thus very important for the qualitative analysis of the large-scale mixing properties of these passive scalars in water bodies. Large horizontal circulating zones (often called gyres) are prevalent structures of wind induced shallow lake flows. In this presentation we analyse the currents generated by wind in a square shaped shallow lake. In case of a steady flow field, induced by a time-independent wind stress field, the typical flow pattern consists of two counter-rotating gyres. When applying periodic disturbances in the wind stress field, mixing regions of different widths develop between the gyres. This region is filled with coherent structures, strongly increasing advective transport in the lake. Meanwhile, the inner regions of the gyres remain stable; their outer periodic orbits serve as transport barriers. Our statement is that the width of the mixing region reaches its maximum at a certain scale of wind disturbation frequencies. This characteristic frequency scale corresponds to the typical circulation frequencies of the gyres. Our flow model consists of a two dimensional, depth-averaged flow field of the volume preserving water body with wind surface stress. The flow has a stream function that satisfies the linearised shallow-water vorticity transport equation. This corresponds to a Hamiltonian system, where the stream function plays the role of the Hamiltonian In the steady state the gyres consist of periodic orbits, so this is an (one degree of freedom) integrable mechanical system, like the undamped pendulum. In the periodically disturbed case the system remains Hamiltonian with a topological similarity to the phase portrait of the forced pendulum. Thus we can

  7. ANALYSIS OF MERCURY IN VERMONT AND NEW HAMPSHIRE LAKES: EVALUATION OF THE REGIONAL MERCURY CYCLING MODEL

    Science.gov (United States)

    An evaluation of the Regional Mercury Cycling Model (R-MCM, a steady-state fate and transport model used to simulate mercury concentrations in lakes) is presented based on its application to a series of 91 lakes in Vermont and New Hampshire. Visual and statistical analyses are pr...

  8. Lake Michigan Mass Balance Study Post Audit: Integrated, Multi-media PCB Modeling and Forecasting for Lake Trout

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Lake Michigan (LM) Mass Balance Study was conducted to measure and model polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and other anthropogenic substances to gain a better understanding of the transport, fate, and effects of these substances within the system and to aid managers in the env...

  9. Geochemical monitoring of volcanic lakes. A generalized box model for active crater lakes

    OpenAIRE

    Rouwet, D.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Palermo, Palermo, Italia; Tassi, F.; Università degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra, Firenze, Italy

    2011-01-01

    In the past, variations in the chemical contents (SO4 2−, Cl−, cations) of crater lake water have not systematically demonstrated any relationships with eruptive activity. Intensive parameters (i.e., concentrations, temperature, pH, salinity) should be converted into extensive parameters (i.e., fluxes, changes with time of mass and solutes), taking into account all the internal and external chemical–physical factors that affect the crater lake system. This study presents ...

  10. Geochemical monitoring of volcanic lakes. A generalized box model for active crater lakes

    OpenAIRE

    Franco Tassi; Dmitri Rouwet

    2011-01-01

    In the past, variations in the chemical contents (SO42−, Cl−, cations) of crater lake water have not systematically demonstrated any relationships with eruptive activity. Intensive parameters (i.e., concentrations, temperature, pH, salinity) should be converted into extensive parameters (i.e., fluxes, changes with time of mass and solutes), taking into account all the internal and external chemical–physical factors that affect the crater lake system. Thi...

  11. Geological nature of subglacial Lake Vostok

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leitchenkov, G. L.; Masolov, V. N.; Lukin, V. V.; Bulat, S. A.; Kurinin, R. G.; Lipenkov, V. Ya.

    2003-04-01

    Lake Vostok is located at the edge of vast upland of East Antarctic (Precambrian) Crystalline Shield and represents a typical extensionally-induced intracontinental rift zone. Type indicators of rift nature are: width (60-80 km) and length (about 300 km) of the lake depression; several (3-5) kilometers of sediments (modeled from gravity data) infilling the lake graben, considerable amplitudes of faults bounding the lake (up to 2 km in bedrock relief and in excess of 5 km in basement topography), half-graben-like structures (rotated crustal blocks) at flanks of the lake traceable to crustal extension; along-strike segmentation of the depression (the presence of two isolated basins, recognized from seismic and gravity data); knee-shaped spatial configuration of the lake and existence of diagonal fractures (displayed in bedrock topography) normally nascent in conditions of tensional stress. The rift graben of Lake Vostok is considered to be a part (branch) of more spacious rift system, main arm of which stretched from the Prydz Bay trough the Lambert Glacier and the eastern foot of Gamburtsev Mts. to, at least, 110E. This rift system is a result of large-scale extensional event, which occurred in East Antarctica in Late Jurassic - Early Cretaceous prior to East Gondwana break-up. Sedimentary infill of this age is proposed to dominate in Vostok Lake, although postrift, preglacial (Cretaceous - Paleogene) strata can also forms significant part of depositional section. Helium isotopes data give evidence that the Lake Vostok rift is not active. On the other hand, thermophilic bacteria found in accretion ice suggest the possibility of hydrothermal activity in lake bottom. The conduits for warm underwater can be provided by deep crustal faults bordering rift graben. Microseismicity recorded in the area of Lake Vostok suggests the possibility of crustal deformations (likely during more dramatic earthquakes) providing a necessary fault permeability for water seepage from

  12. Predictive habitat modelling of humpback (Megaptera novaeangliae) and Antarctic minke (Balaenoptera bonaerensis) whales in the Southern Ocean as a planning tool for seismic surveys

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bombosch, Annette; Zitterbart, Daniel P.; Van Opzeeland, Ilse; Frickenhaus, Stephan; Burkhardt, Elke; Wisz, Mary S.; Boebel, Olaf

    2014-09-01

    Seismic surveys are frequently a matter of concern regarding their potentially negative impacts on marine mammals. In the Southern Ocean, which provides a critical habitat for several endangered cetacean species, seismic research activities are undertaken at a circumpolar scale. In order to minimize impacts of these surveys, pre-cruise planning requires detailed, spatio-temporally resolved knowledge on the likelihood of encountering these species in the survey area. In this publication we present predictive habitat modelling as a potential tool to support decisions for survey planning. We associated opportunistic sightings (2005-2011) of humpback (Megaptera novaeangliae, N=93) and Antarctic minke whales (Balaenoptera bonaerensis, N=139) with a range of static and dynamic environmental variables. A maximum entropy algorithm (Maxent) was used to develop habitat models and to calculate daily basinwide/circumpolar prediction maps to evaluate how species-specific habitat conditions evolved throughout the spring and summer months. For both species, prediction maps revealed considerable changes in habitat suitability throughout the season. Suitable humpback whale habitat occurred predominantly in ice-free areas, expanding southwards with the retreating sea ice edge, whereas suitable Antarctic minke whale habitat was consistently predicted within sea ice covered areas. Daily, large-scale prediction maps provide a valuable tool to design layout and timing of seismic surveys as they allow the identification and consideration of potential spatio-temporal hotspots to minimize potential impacts of seismic surveys on Antarctic cetacean species.

  13. Stochastic modeling of Lake Van water level time series with jumps and multiple trends

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Aksoy

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available In 1990s, water level in the closed-basin Lake Van located in the Eastern Anatolia, Turkey has risen up about 2 m. Analysis of the hydrometeorological shows that change in the water level is related to the water budget of the lake. In this study, a stochastic model is generated using the measured monthly water level data of the lake. The model is derived after removal of trend and periodicity in the data set. Trend observed in the lake water level time series is fitted by mono- and multiple-trend lines. For the multiple-trend, the time series is first divided into homogeneous segments by means of SEGMENTER, segmentation software. Four segments are found meaningful practically each fitted with a trend line. Two models considering mono- and multiple-trend time series are developed. The multiple-trend model is found better for planning future development in surrounding areas of the lake.

  14. Acidification and recovery at mountain lakes in Central Alps assessed by the MAGIC model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michela ROGORA

    2004-02-01

    Full Text Available The dynamic model MAGIC was calibrated and applied to 84 lakes in Central Alps to predict the response of water chemistry to different scenarios of atmospheric deposition of S and N compounds. Selected lakes were representative of a wide range of chemical characteristics and of sensitivity to acidification. The most sensitive lakes have already shown in the latest years signs of recovery in terms of pH and ANC. The model well captured the main trends in lake chemical data. According to the model forecast, recovery at sensitive lakes will continue in the next decades under the hypothesis of a further decrease of acidic input from the atmosphere. Results clearly demonstrated the benefits of achieving the emission reductions in both S and N compounds agreed under the Gothenburg Protocol. Nevertheless, besides the achieved reduction of SO4 2- deposition from the peak levels of the 80s, also N deposition should be reduced in the near future to protect alpine lakes from further acidification. The condition of lake catchments with regard to N saturation will probably be the dominant factor driving recovery extent. Beside atmospheric deposition, other factors proved to be important in determining long-term changes in surface water chemistry. Climate warming in particular affects weathering processes in lake catchments and dynamics of the N cycle. Including other factors specific to the alpine area, such as dust deposition and climate change, may improve the fit of experimental data by the model and the reliability of model forecast.

  15. Collaborative modelling and integrated decision support system analysis of a developed terminal lake basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niswonger, Richard G.; Allander, Kip K.; Jeton, Anne E.

    2014-09-01

    A terminal lake basin in west-central Nevada, Walker Lake, has undergone drastic change over the past 90 yrs due to upstream water use for agriculture. Decreased inflows to the lake have resulted in 100 km2 decrease in lake surface area and a total loss of fisheries due to salinization. The ecologic health of Walker Lake is of great concern as the lake is a stopover point on the Pacific route for migratory birds from within and outside the United States. Stakeholders, water institutions, and scientists have engaged in collaborative modeling and the development of a decision support system that is being used to develop and analyze management change options to restore the lake. Here we use an integrated management and hydrologic model that relies on state-of-the-art simulation capabilities to evaluate the benefits of using integrated hydrologic models as components of a decision support system. Nonlinear feedbacks among climate, surface-water and groundwater exchanges, and water use present challenges for simulating realistic outcomes associated with management change. Integrated management and hydrologic modeling provides a means of simulating benefits associated with management change in the Walker River basin where drastic changes in the hydrologic landscape have taken place over the last century. Through the collaborative modeling process, stakeholder support is increasing and possibly leading to management change options that result in reductions in Walker Lake salt concentrations, as simulated by the decision support system.

  16. Physico-chemical model of toxic substances in the Great Lakes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A physico-chemical model of the fate of toxic substances in the Great Lakes is constructed from mass balance principles and incorporates principal mechanisms of particulate sorption-desorption, sediment-water and atmosphere-water interactions, and chemical and biochemical decay. Calibration of the toxic model is through comparison to plutonium-239 data collected in the 1970s using a 23 year time variable calculation and indicates that in general, the sediments are interactive with the water column in the Great Lakes through resuspension and or horizontal transport. Fifty percent response times of 239Pu following a cessation of load extend beyond 10 years with sediment resuspension. The calibration model was applied to polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) using a high and low estimate of contemporary external load and with and without volatilization. Calibration of the model to data on benzo(a)pyrene confirms that on a lake-wide scale the principal external source in the atmosphere and for the larger lakes such as Michigan the response time of the lake to external loads is about 6-10 years while for Lake Erie response time is about 2 years. Application of the model to cadmium in the lakes, using a solids dependent partition coefficient indicates that the lakes do not reach equilibrium over a 100 year period. Calculated high concentrations of cadmium in interstitial water (e.g., 10 microgram/l) indicate the importance of measuring interstitial cadmium concentrations

  17. Lake contamination models for evolution towards steady state

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Johan C. VAREKAMP

    2003-09-01

    Full Text Available Most lakes are in an average steady state for water but contaminants may not yet have reached steady state or are gradually being flushed out in a clean-up program. The evolution towards steady state for fully mixed or stratified lakes can be described by basic equations of mass flow. The time-concentration paths for fully mixed lakes are asymptotic toward a steady state concentration, which is reached in about 6 contaminant residence times (and clean-up also takes about 6 residence times. Stratified lakes also evolve towards a whole-lake steady state concentration but show oscillating patterns of concentration versus time, with the amplitude and dampening period depending on the volume ratio of epilimnion to total lake volume. In most natural lakes, the compositional contrast between epilimnion and hypolimnion will become almost erased in 2-4 residence times. An acid lake in North-Patagonia is used as an example of contamination of a thermally stratified lake by volcanic effluents.

  18. Distinguishing between anthropogenic and climatic impacts on lake size: a modeling approach using data from Ebinur Lake in arid northwest China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Long Ma

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Evaluation of anthropogenic and climatic impacts on lake size variation is important for maintaining ecosystem integrity and sustaining societal development. We assumed that climate and human activity are the only drivers of lake-size variation and are independent of each other. We then evaluated anthropogenic and climatic effects on hydrological processes, using a multivariate linear model. Macro-economic data were used to describe the anthropogenic impact on lake surface area in our approach. Ebinur Lake is a shallow, closed, saline lake in arid northwest China; it has shrunk at a rapid rate over the past half century. Using our new method, we explored temporal trends of anthropogenic and climatic impacts on the lake over the past 50 years. Assessment indices indicate that the model represents observed data quite well. Compared with the reference period of 1955-1960, impacts of climate change across the catchment were generally positive with respect to lake area, except for the period from 1961 to 1970. Human activity was responsible for a reduction in lake surface area of 286.8 km2 over the last 50 years. Our approach, which uses economic variables to describe the anthropogenic impact on lake surface area, enables us to explain the lake responses to climate change and human activities quantitatively.

  19. Antarctic Dry Valley Sediments as Analogs for Microbial Systems in a Cold Mars-Like Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bishop, J. L.; Englert, P.

    2016-05-01

    Investigations of surface and lake bottom sediments in the Antarctic Dry Valleys have revealed microbial life nearly everywhere and some evidence for clays, carbonates, sulfates and other minerals associated with microbes in the sediments.

  20. A dynamic model of caesium transport in lakes and their catchments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A mathematical model has been developed to predict radiocaesium concentrations over time within individual compartments of the lake and its catchment. The lake has been divided into five compartments; catchment, lake water (epilimnion and hypolimnion during stratification), lake sediment and fish. Radiocaesium enters the lake via contaminated rainfall and catchment runoff. A proportion of this radiocaesium absorbs onto suspended solids in the lake. This proportion is represented by a distribution coefficient. Sedimentation of the suspended solids occurs at a rate defined by the areal removal coefficient and results in increased caesium concentrations in the sediment. The ingestion of radiocaesium by either water column or benthic feeding fish is described by transfer functions. The model has been tested against data collected from Esthwaite water and Windermere shortly after the Chernobyl reactor accident from May 1986 to December 1987. The model simulates observed radiocaesium concentrations in Esthwaite lake water and sediment and also in lake water, sediment and fish in Windermere. The model could form the basis of a valuable management tool for the water industry should a major airborne pollution event occur again. (author)

  1. ALBEDO MODELS FOR SNOW AND ICE ON A FRESHWATER LAKE. (R824801)

    Science.gov (United States)

    AbstractSnow and ice albedo measurements were taken over a freshwater lake in Minnesota for three months during the winter of 1996¯1997 for use in a winter lake water quality model. The mean albedo of new snow was measured as 0.83±0.028, while the...

  2. A Two-dimensional Heat Transfer Model for Atmosphere-land System in the Lake-dominated Alaskan Arctic

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LING Feng; ZHANG Ting-jun

    2002-01-01

    Understanding lake ice growth and its sensitivity to climate change is vital to understand the thermal regime of thaw lake systems and predict their response to climate change. In this paper, a physically-based, two-dimensional, non-steady mathematical model is developed for studying the role of shallow tundra lakes in the Alaskan Arctic. Both the radiation absorption in lake water and the phasechange in permafrost are considerd in the model. The materials the model includes are snow, ice, water, unfrozen and frozen soil (peat, silt,sand and gravel). The basic inputs to the model observed mean daily air temperature and snow depth. The ability of this model to simulate lake ice growth and thickness variation, lake water temperature distribution, the thermal regime of permafrost and talik dynamics beneath lakes, and thawing rate of permafrost below and adjacent to shallow thaw lakes offers the potential to describe the effects of climate change in the Alaskan Arctic.

  3. Evolution of Lake Chad Basin hydrology during the mid-Holocene: A preliminary approach from lake to climate modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sepulchre, Pierre; Schuster, Mathieu; Ramstein, Gilles; Krinnezr, Gerhard; Girard, Jean-Francois; Vignaud, Patrick; Brunet, Michel

    2008-03-01

    During the mid-Holocene (6000 yr Before Present, hereafter yr BP) the Chad Basin was occupied by a large endoreic lake, called Lake Mega-Chad. The existence of this lake at that time seems linked to increased monsoonal moisture supply to the Sahel and the Sahara, which in turn was probably ultimately caused by variations in the orbital forcing and higher temperature gradients between ocean and continent. This study provides a synthesis of several works carried out on the Lake Chad Basin and analyses the results of a simulation of the mid-Holocene climate with an Atmosphere General Circulation Model (LMDZ for Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique, IPSL Paris), with emphasis on the possible conditions leading to the existence of Lake Mega-Chad. The aim is to define the best diagnostics to understand which mechanisms lead to the existence of the large lake. This paper is the first step of an ongoing work that intends to understand the environmental conditions that this part of Africa experienced during the Upper Miocene (ca. 7 Ma BP), an epoch that was contemporaneous with the first known hominids. Indeed, early hominids of Lake Chad Basin, Australopithecus bahrelghazali [ Brunet, M., et al., 1995. The first australopithecine 2500 kilometers west of the Rift-Valley (Chad). Nature, 378(6554): 273-275] and Sahelanthropus tchadensis [Brunet, M., et al., 2002. A new hominid from the Upper Miocene of Chad, central Africa. Nature, 418(6894): 145-151; Brunet, M., et al., 2005. New material of the earliest hominid from the Upper Miocene of Chad. Nature, 434(7034): 752-755] are systematically associated with wet episodes that are documented for 7 Ma BP [Vignaud, P., et al., 2002. Geology and palaeontology of the Upper Miocene Toros-Menalla hominid locality, Chad. Nature, 418(6894): 152-155] and testified by extended lacustrine deposits (diatomites, pelites, various aquatic fauna). Because the mid-Holocene was the last such mega-lake episode, our aim here is to assess the

  4. Understanding the performance of the FLake model over the African Great Lakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thiery, W.; Martynov, A.; Darchambeau, F.; Descy, J.-P.; Plisnier, P.-D.; Sushama, L.; van Lipzig, N. P. M.

    2013-10-01

    The ability of the one-dimensional lake model FLake to represent the mixolimnion temperatures for tropical conditions was tested for three locations in East Africa: Lake Kivu, Lake Tanganyika's northern and southern basins. Meteorological observations from surrounding Automatic Weather Stations were corrected and used to drive FLake, whereas a comprehensive set of water temperature profiles served to evaluate the model at each site. Careful forcing data correction and model configuration allowed to reproduce the observed mixed layer seasonality at Lake Kivu and Lake Tanganyika (northern and southern basins), with correct representation of both the mixed layer depth and temperature structure. At Lake Kivu, mixolimnion temperatures predicted by FLake were found sensitive both to minimal variations in the external parameters (lake depth and water transparency) as to small changes in the meteorological driving data, in particular wind velocity. In each case, small modifications may already lead to a regime switch from the correctly represented seasonal mixed layer deepening to either completely mixed (down to the model lake bottom) or permanently stratified (from ~10 m downwards) conditions. In contrast, model temperatures are found robust close to the surface, with acceptable predictions of near-surface water temperatures even when the seasonal mixing regime is not reproduced. FLake can thus be a suitable tool to parameterize tropical lake water surface temperatures within atmospheric prediction models, but may be less appropriate, in its current form, to study complex limnological processes within tropical lakes. Furthermore, a study of different initial conditions showed that for tropical lakes lacking reliable initial data, a fully mixed, artificially warm initialisation is to be preferred, but only if the model is allowed to spin up until convergence is reached. Finally, FLake was used to attribute the seasonal mixing cycle at Lake Kivu to variations in the near

  5. Distinguishing between anthropogenic and climatic impacts on lake size: a modeling approach using data from Ebinur Lake in arid northwest China

    OpenAIRE

    Long Ma; Jinglu Wu; Wen Liu; Jilili Abuduwaili

    2014-01-01

    Evaluation of anthropogenic and climatic impacts on lake size variation is important for maintaining ecosystem integrity and sustaining societal development. We assumed that climate and human activity are the only drivers of lake-size variation and are independent of each other. We then evaluated anthropogenic and climatic effects on hydrological processes, using a multivariate linear model. Macro-economic data were used to describe the anthropogenic impact on lake surface area in our approac...

  6. Aquatic dispersion modelling of a tritium plume in Lake Ontario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Approximately 2900 kg of tritiated water, containing 2.3E+15 Bq of tritium, were released to Lake Ontario via the cooling water discharge when a leak developed in a moderator heat exchanger in Unit 1 at the Pickering Nuclear Generating Station (PNGS) on 1992 August 2. The release provided the opportunity to study the dispersion of a tritium plume in the coastal zone of Lake Ontario. Current direction over the two-week period following the release was predominantly parallel to the shore, and elevated tritium concentrations were observed up to 20 km east and 85 km west of the PNGS. Predictions of the tritium plume movement were made using current velocity measurements taken at 8-m depth, 2.5 km offshore from Darlington and using a empirical relationship where alongshore current speed is assumed to be proportional to the alongshore component of the wind speed. The tritium migration was best described using current velocity measurements. The tritium plume dispersion is modelled using the one-dimensional advection-dispersion equation. Transport parameters are the alongshore current speed and longitudinal dispersion coefficient. Longitudinal dispersion coefficients, estimated by fitting the solution of the advection-dispersion equation to measured concentration distance profiles ranged from 3.75 to 10.57 m2s-1. Simulations using the fitted values of the dispersion coefficient were able to describe maximum tritium concentrations measured at water supply plants located within 25 km of Pickering to within a factor of 3. The dispersion coefficient is a function of spatial and temporal variability in current velocity and the fitted dispersion coefficients estimated here may not be suitable for predicting tritium plume dispersion under different current conditions. The sensitivity of the dispersion coefficient to variability in current conditions should be evaluated in further field experiments. (author). 13 refs., 7 tabs., 12 figs

  7. EO-based lake-ice cover and surface temperature products: Advancing process understanding and modeling capabilities of lake-atmosphere interactions in cold regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duguay, C. R.; Kheyrollah Pour, H.; Ochilov, S.

    2011-12-01

    Our ability to determine the energy and water budgets of lakes is critical to modeling high latitude weather and climate. In recent years, the proper representation of lake processes in numerical weather prediction (NWP) and regional climate (RCM) models has become a topic of much interest by the scientific community. With the increased resolution of the NWP models and RCMs, it has now become possible and necessary to improve the representation of lake-atmosphere interactions to better describe the energy exchange between the atmosphere and the lake surface. Among other lake properties, knowledge about lake surface temperature and ice-coverage is critical. These two parameters can either be obtained from observations or through simulations. Although much progress is being made with lake models, as implemented in NWP/RCM models, the assimilation of data on lake temperature and fractional ice coverage has been identified as highly desirable. Spatially and temporally consistent lake ice and lake surface temperature (LST) products are invaluable in this respect. These can be derived from Earth Observation (EO) systems. However, satellite-based products must be compared with existing lake models, as well as validated and further improved as needed, to generate lake ice and LST products for operational use by the modeling community. The European Space Agency (ESA) is supporting the international efforts coordinated by the Climate and Cryosphere (CliC) project of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) to exploit the use of EO technology, models and in situ data to improve the characterization of river and lake ice processes and their contribution to the Northern Hydrology system. The ESA-sponsored North Hydrology project aims to develop a portfolio of novel multi-mission geo-information products, maximizing the use of ESA satellite data, to respond to the scientific requirements of the CliC community and the operational requirements of the weather and climate

  8. Regional model simulation of the hydrometeorological effects of the Fucino Lake on the surrounding region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Tomassetti

    Full Text Available The drainage of the Fucino Lake of central Italy was completed in 1873, and this possibly caused significant climatic changes over the Fucino basin. In this paper we discuss a set of short-term triple-nested regional model simulations of the meteorological effects of the Fucino Lake on the surrounding region. We find that the model simulates realistic lake-breeze circulations and their response to background winds. The simulations indicate that the lake affects the temperature of the surrounding basin in all seasons and precipitation in the cold season, when cyclonic perturbations move across the region. Some effects of the lake also extend over areas quite far from the Fucino basin. Our results support the hypothesis that the drainage of the lake might have significantly affected the climate of the lake basin. However, longer simulations and further development in some aspects of the model are needed, in order to provide a more statistically robust evaluation of the simulated lake-effects.

    Key words. Hydrology (anthropogenic effects – Meteorology and atmospheric dynamics (climatology; mesoscale meteorology

  9. Morphometric analysis of Russian Plain's small lakes on the base of accurate digital bathymetric models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naumenko, Mikhail; Guzivaty, Vadim; Sapelko, Tatiana

    2016-04-01

    Lake morphometry refers to physical factors (shape, size, structure, etc) that determine the lake depression. Morphology has a great influence on lake ecological characteristics especially on water thermal conditions and mixing depth. Depth analyses, including sediment measurement at various depths, volumes of strata and shoreline characteristics are often critical to the investigation of biological, chemical and physical properties of fresh waters as well as theoretical retention time. Management techniques such as loading capacity for effluents and selective removal of undesirable components of the biota are also dependent on detailed knowledge of the morphometry and flow characteristics. During the recent years a lake bathymetric surveys were carried out by using echo sounder with a high bottom depth resolution and GPS coordinate determination. Few digital bathymetric models have been created with 10*10 m spatial grid for some small lakes of Russian Plain which the areas not exceed 1-2 sq. km. The statistical characteristics of the depth and slopes distribution of these lakes calculated on an equidistant grid. It will provide the level-surface-volume variations of small lakes and reservoirs, calculated through combination of various satellite images. We discuss the methodological aspects of creating of morphometric models of depths and slopes of small lakes as well as the advantages of digital models over traditional methods.

  10. Modeling the global atmospheric transport and deposition of mercury to the Great Lakes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mark D. Cohen

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Mercury contamination in the Great Lakes continues to have important public health and wildlife ecotoxicology impacts, and atmospheric deposition is a significant ongoing loading pathway. The objective of this study was to estimate the amount and source-attribution for atmospheric mercury deposition to each lake, information needed to prioritize amelioration efforts. A new global, Eulerian version of the HYSPLIT-Hg model was used to simulate the 2005 global atmospheric transport and deposition of mercury to the Great Lakes. In addition to the base case, 10 alternative model configurations were used to examine sensitivity to uncertainties in atmospheric mercury chemistry and surface exchange. A novel atmospheric lifetime analysis was used to characterize fate and transport processes within the model. Model-estimated wet deposition and atmospheric concentrations of gaseous elemental mercury (Hg(0 were generally within ∼10% of measurements in the Great Lakes region. The model overestimated non-Hg(0 concentrations by a factor of 2–3, similar to other modeling studies. Potential reasons for this disagreement include model inaccuracies, differences in atmospheric Hg fractions being compared, and the measurements being biased low. Lake Erie, downwind of significant local/regional emissions sources, was estimated by the model to be the most impacted by direct anthropogenic emissions (58% of the base case total deposition, while Lake Superior, with the fewest upwind local/regional sources, was the least impacted (27%. The U.S. was the largest national contributor, followed by China, contributing 25% and 6%, respectively, on average, for the Great Lakes. The contribution of U.S. direct anthropogenic emissions to total mercury deposition varied between 46% for the base case (with a range of 24–51% over all model configurations for Lake Erie and 11% (range 6–13% for Lake Superior. These results illustrate the importance of atmospheric

  11. Model studies on the eutrophication of shallow lakes and ditches

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Janse, J.H.

    2005-01-01

    This study concentrates on eutrophication effects in shallow lakes and ponds on the one hand and in ditches (small water channels in agricultural areas) on the other. In shallow lakes (up to ca 4 m of depth), ihe clear-water community characterized by macrophytes is generally replaced by a dominance

  12. Variability of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current derived from GRACE retrievals, model simulations and in-situ measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boening, C.; Timmermann, R.; Macrander, A.; Schroeter, J.; Boebel, O.

    2008-12-01

    The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) provides estimates of the Earth's static and time-variant gravity field. Solutions from various processing centres (GFZ, CSR, GRGS, JPL etc.) enable us to determine mass redistributions on the globe. Given that land signals are generally large compared to anomalies over the ocean, an assessment of the latter requires a particularly careful filtering of the data. We utilized the Finite Element Sea-Ice Ocean Model (FESOM) to develop a filtering algorithm which relies on the spatial coherency of ocean bottom pressure (OBP) anomalies. Taking large-scale circulation patterns into account, the new filter yields an improved representation of OBP (i.e. ocean mass) variability in the filtered GRACE data. In order to investigate the representation of Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) variability in the pattern-filtered GRACE retrievals, an analysis of OBP anomalies in FESOM results and in-situ measurements has been performed. Data from a PIES (Pressure sensor equipped Inverted Echo Sounder) array (36°S-55°S, 2°W-13°E) south of Africa provides bottom pressure recorder data from 2002-2008 for the ACC region. Based on anomalies of OBP gradients between individual instruments, these in-situ measurements give an estimate of the overall transport variability as well as of the movement of ACC fronts and transport redistribution between different sectors of the ACC. The validation of simulated and satellite-derived OBP anomaly gradients against these data yields a measure for the representation of this variability in FESOM and GRACE. Furthermore, model simulations are used to assess the relation between transport variations in individual filaments of the Southern Ocean and total transport variability in this and other sectors of the ACC.

  13. The LARsen Ice Shelf System, Antarctica, LARISSA a Model for Antarctic Integrated System Science (AISS) Investigations using Marine Platforms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Domack, E. W.; Huber, B. A.; Vernet, M.; Leventer, A.; Scambos, T. A.; Mosley-Thompson, E. S.; Smith, C. R.; de Batist, M. A.; Yoon, H.; Larissa

    2010-12-01

    The LARISSA program is the first interdisciplinary project funded in the AISS program of the NSF Office of Polar Programs and was officially launched in the closing days of the IPY. This program brings together investigators, students, and media to address the rapid and fundamental changes taking place in the region of the Larsen Ice Shelf and surrounding areas. Scientific foci include: glaciologic and oceanographic interactions, the response of pelagic and benthic ecosystems to ice shelf decay, sedimentary record of ice shelf break disintegration, the geologic evolution of ice shelf systems over the last 100,000 years, paleoclimate/environmental records from marine sediment and ice cores, and the crustal response to ice mass loss at decade to millennial time scales. The first major field season took place this past austral summer aboard the NB Palmer (cruise NBP10-01) which deployed with a multi-layered logistical infrastructure that included: two Bell 220 aircraft, a multifunctional deep water ROV, video guided sediment corer, jumbo piston core, and an array of oceanographic and biological sensors and instruments. In tandem with this ship based operation Twin Otter aircraft supported an ice core team upon the crest of the Bruce Plateau with logistic support provided by the BAS at Rothera Station. Although unusually heavy sea ice prevented much of the original work from being completed in the Larsen Embayment the interdisciplinary approach proved useful. Further the logistical model of ship based aircraft to support interdisciplinary work proved viable, again despite an unusually severe summer meterologic pattern across the northern Antarctic Peninsula. As the program moves forward other vessels will come into play and the model can be applied to interdisciplinary objectives in other regions of Antarctica which are remote and lack land based infrastructure to support coastal field programs in glaciology, geology, or meteorology. This work could then be completed

  14. Testing of SIR (a transformable robotic submarine) in Lake Tahoe for future deployment at West Antarctic Ice Sheet grounding lines of Siple Coast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Powell, R. D.; Scherer, R. P.; Griffiths, I.; Taylor, L.; Winans, J.; Mankoff, K. D.

    2011-12-01

    A remotely operated vehicle (ROV) has been custom-designed and built by DOER Marine to meet scientific requirements for exploring subglacial water cavities. This sub-ice rover (SIR) will explore and quantitatively document the grounding zone areas of the Ross Ice Shelf cavity using a 3km-long umbilical tether by deployment through an 800m-long ice borehole in a torpedo shape, which is also its default mode if operational failure occurs. Once in the ocean cavity it transforms via a diamond-shaped geometry into a rectangular form when all of its instruments come alive in its flight mode. Instrumentation includes 4 cameras (one forward-looking HD), a vertical scanning sonar (long-range imaging for spatial orientation and navigation), Doppler current meter (determine water current velocities), multi-beam sonar (image and swath map bottom topography), sub-bottom profiler (profile sub-sea-floor sediment for geological history), CTD (determine salinity, temperature and depth), DO meter (determine dissolved oxygen content in water), transmissometer (determine suspended particulate concentrations in water), laser particle-size analyzer (determine sizes of particles in water), triple laser-beams (determine size and volume of objects), thermistor probe (measure in situ temperatures of ice and sediment), shear vane probe (determine in situ strength of sediment), manipulator arm (deploy instrumentation packages, collect samples), shallow ice corer (collect ice samples and glacial debris), water sampler (determine sea water/freshwater composition, calibrate real-time sensors, sample microbes), shallow sediment corer (sample sea floor, in-ice and subglacial sediment for stratigraphy, facies, particle size, composition, structure, fabric, microbes). A sophisticated array of data handling, storing and displaying will allow real-time observations and environmental assessments to be made. This robotic submarine and other instruments will be tested in Lake Tahoe in September, 2011 and

  15. Understanding the performance of the FLake model over two African Great Lakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thiery, W.; Martynov, A.; Darchambeau, F.; Descy, J.-P.; Plisnier, P.-D.; Sushama, L.; van Lipzig, N. P. M.

    2014-02-01

    The ability of the one-dimensional lake model FLake to represent the mixolimnion temperatures for tropical conditions was tested for three locations in East Africa: Lake Kivu and Lake Tanganyika's northern and southern basins. Meteorological observations from surrounding automatic weather stations were corrected and used to drive FLake, whereas a comprehensive set of water temperature profiles served to evaluate the model at each site. Careful forcing data correction and model configuration made it possible to reproduce the observed mixed layer seasonality at Lake Kivu and Lake Tanganyika (northern and southern basins), with correct representation of both the mixed layer depth and water temperatures. At Lake Kivu, mixolimnion temperatures predicted by FLake were found to be sensitive both to minimal variations in the external parameters and to small changes in the meteorological driving data, in particular wind velocity. In each case, small modifications may lead to a regime switch, from the correctly represented seasonal mixed layer deepening to either completely mixed or permanently stratified conditions from ∼ 10 m downwards. In contrast, model temperatures were found to be robust close to the surface, with acceptable predictions of near-surface water temperatures even when the seasonal mixing regime is not reproduced. FLake can thus be a suitable tool to parameterise tropical lake water surface temperatures within atmospheric prediction models. Finally , FLake was used to attribute the seasonal mixing cycle at Lake Kivu to variations in the near-surface meteorological conditions. It was found that the annual mixing down to 60 m during the main dry season is primarily due to enhanced lake evaporation and secondarily to the decreased incoming long wave radiation, both causing a significant heat loss from the lake surface and associated mixolimnion cooling.

  16. Modeling of sediment and heavy metal transport in Taihu Lake, China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG Chao; SHEN Chao; WANG Pei-fang; QIAN Jin; HOU Jun; LIU Jia-jia

    2013-01-01

    With the current rapid economic growth,heavy metal pollution has become one of the key issues in the Taihu Lake.Although heavy metal pollution levels and distributions of the Taihu Lake have previously been described,an effective model to describe the transport process of heavy metals between the water column and sediment bed for this lake is not available.It is known that heavy metals in the water column can be related to the resuspension of sediment in the lake bed.In this study,we set up a coupled model of relating hydrodynamics,sediment and heavy metals based on Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code (EFDC),and applied it to Taihu Lake,China.For calibration and validation of the model,we employed two series of field sampling data taken all over Taihu Lake during April and July of 2009.The results show that the hydrodynamics simulations of the coupled model agree with the observations reasonably well and the sediment and heavy metal model shows similar variation trends during the simulation.Our results indicate that the model can be used for simulating the sediment and heavy metal transport process in the Taihu Lake and here we provide an effective tool for water quality management at small time scales.

  17. Modeling Refuge Effect of Submerged Macrophytes in Lake System.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lv, Dongyu; Fan, Meng; Kang, Yun; Blanco, Krystal

    2016-04-01

    This paper considers a significant problem in biological control of algae issue in ecological environment. A four-dimensional dynamic model is carefully formulated to characterize the interactions among phytoplankton, submerged macrophyte, zooplankton, and general fish class in a lake ecosystem. The predation relationship is modeled by Beddington-DeAngelis functional responses derived from the classical Holling time budget arguments. Qualitative analyses of the global dynamics show that the system can generate very rich dynamics with potentially 10 different equilibria and several bistable scenarios. We perform analysis on the existence and local stability of equilibria and explore the refuge effect of macrophyte on the zooplankton with numerical simulations on aquatic ecosystems. We also discuss effective methods of biological control used to restrain the increase of phytoplankton. Our study shows the proposed model could have rich and complex dynamics including but not limited to bistable and chaotic phenomenon. Numerical simulation results demonstrate that both the refuge constant and the density of the macrophytes are two key factors where refuge effects take place. In addition, the intraspecific competition between the macrophyte and the phytoplankton can also affect the macrophyte's refuge effect. Our analytical and simulation results suggest that macrophytes provide structure and shelter against predation for zooplankton such that it could restore the zooplankton population, and that planting macrophyte properly might achieve the purpose of controlling algae growth. PMID:27055658

  18. On measurements and modeling of ultraviolet radiation with focus on the Antarctic

    OpenAIRE

    Meinander, Outi

    2007-01-01

    The aim of the work was to study, on the basis of literature and experiments, the aspects of measuring and modeling ultraviolet radiation. For measurements, both the spectral and the non-spectral approaches were included. For modeling, physical and statistical models were applied. Thereafter the satellite UV estimates, i.e. spaceborn spectrometer measurements on solar radiation combined with physical UV modeling, were shortly introduced. Case studies were carried out for each of the five case...

  19. Antarctic research today

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    With the appetite for living and dead natural resources, the political and economical interest concerning the Antarctic increases throughout the world. There are three interrelated main subjects accounting for the international interest: The shelf tectonic puzzle of the original continent of Gondwana, where the Antarctic is situated in the centre, between Australia, South Africa and South America, and the hopes concerning the existence of mineral resources under the ice of the Antarctic are based thereon. The Antarctic forms the biggest unified living space of the world. (orig.)

  20. Development of a CE-QUAL-W2 temperature model for Crystal Springs Lake, Portland, Oregon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buccola, Norman L.; Stonewall, Adam J.

    2016-05-19

    During summer 2014, lake level, streamflow, and water temperature in and around Crystal Springs Lake in Portland, Oregon, were measured by the U.S. Geological Survey and the City of Portland Bureau of Environmental Services to better understand the effect of the lake on Crystal Springs Creek and Johnson Creek downstream. Johnson Creek is listed as an impaired water body for temperature by the Oregon Department of Environmental Quality (ODEQ), as required by section 303(d) of the Clean Water Act. A temperature total maximum daily load applies to all streams in the Johnson Creek watershed, including Crystal Springs Creek. Summer water temperatures downstream of Crystal Springs Lake and the Golf Pond regularly exceed the ODEQ numeric criterion of 64.4 °F (18.0 °C) for salmonid rearing and migration. To better understand temperature contributions of this system, the U.S. Geological Survey developed two-dimensional hydrodynamic water temperature models of Crystal Springs Lake and the Golf Pond. Model grids were developed to closely resemble the bathymetry of the lake and pond using data from a 2014 survey. The calibrated models simulated surface water elevations to within 0.06 foot (0.02 meter) and outflow water temperature to within 1.08 °F (0.60 °C). Streamflow, water temperature, and lake elevation data collected during summer 2014 supplied the boundary and reference conditions for the model. Measured discrepancies between outflow and inflow from the lake, assumed to be mostly from unknown and diffuse springs under the lake, accounted for about 46 percent of the total inflow to the lake.

  1. Decadal-Scale Response of the Antarctic Ice sheet to a Warming Ocean using the POPSICLES Coupled Ice Sheet-Ocean model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, D. F.; Asay-Davis, X.; Cornford, S. L.; Price, S. F.; Ng, E. G.; Collins, W.

    2015-12-01

    We present POPSICLES simulation results covering the full Antarctic Ice Sheet and the Southern Ocean spanning the period from 1990 to 2010. We use the CORE v. 2 interannual forcing data to force the ocean model. Simulations are performed at 0.1o(~5 km) ocean resolution with adaptive ice sheet resolution as fine as 500 m to adequately resolve the grounding line dynamics. We discuss the effect of improved ocean mixing and subshelf bathymetry (vs. the standard Bedmap2 bathymetry) on the behavior of the coupled system, comparing time-averaged melt rates below a number of major ice shelves with those reported in the literature. We also present seasonal variability and decadal melting trends from several Antarctic regions, along with the response of the ice shelves and the consequent dynamic response of the grounded ice sheet.POPSICLES couples the POP2x ocean model, a modified version of the Parallel Ocean Program, and the BISICLES ice-sheet model. POP2x includes sub-ice-shelf circulation using partial top cells and the commonly used three-equation boundary layer physics. Standalone POP2x output compares well with standard ice-ocean test cases (e.g., ISOMIP) and other continental-scale simulations and melt-rate observations. BISICLES makes use of adaptive mesh refinement and a 1st-order accurate momentum balance similar to the L1L2 model of Schoof and Hindmarsh to accurately model regions of dynamic complexity, such as ice streams, outlet glaciers, and grounding lines. Results of BISICLES simulations have compared favorably to comparable simulations with a Stokes momentum balance in both idealized tests (MISMIP-3d) and realistic configurations.The figure shows the BISICLES-computed vertically-integrated grounded ice velocity field 5 years into a 20-year coupled full-continent Antarctic-Southern-Ocean simulation. Submarine melt rates are painted onto the surface of the floating ice shelves. Grounding lines are shown in green.

  2. Assessment and Consequences of the Delayed Breakup of the Antarctic Polar Vortex in Two Versions of the GEOS Chemistry-Climate Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hurwitz, M.M.; Newman, P.A.; Li, F.

    2008-01-01

    In mid-winter, winds circle the globe at speeds greater than 200 km/hr (approximately 130mph) in the middle atmosphere. This strong jet bounds the region known as the polar vortex. The presence of the Antarctic polar vortex is a key ingredient in the formation of the 'ozone hole', because the air inside the vortex is cold and isolated from lower latitudes, creating ideal conditions for large-scale chemical ozone depletion. Many atmospheric models are not able to reproduce observed winds in the middle atmosphere. Specifically, the polar vortices tend to break down too late and peak wind speeds are higher than observed. Hurwitz et al. find that the delayed break-up of the Antarctic polar vortex is due to weaker-than-observed wave driving from the lower atmosphere during the October-November period. The delayed break-up of the Antarctic polar vortex changes the temperature structure of the middle atmosphere, which biases the amount of chemical ozone depletion that can occur in late winter and spring. Also, the extended lifetime of the polar vortex strengthens the 'overturning' circulation cell in the middle atmosphere, changing the amount of ozone, methane and other chemical species that is transported from low to high latitudes. As greenhouse gas concentrations continue to rise, the atmospheric temperature structure and resulting wind structure are expected to change. Clearly, if models cannot duplicate the observed late 20th century high-latitude winds, their ability to simulate the polar vortices in future must be poor. Understanding model weaknesses and improving the modeled polar vortices will be necessary for accurate predictions of ozone recovery in the coming century.

  3. The importance of sea-ice area biases in 21st century multi-model projections of Antarctic net precipitation and temperature and their relative change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bracegirdle, T.

    2015-12-01

    Climate models exhibit large biases in sea ice area (SIA) in their historical simulations. This study has explored the impacts of these biases on multi-model uncertainty in CMIP5 ensemble projections of 21st century change in Antarctic surface temperature, net precipitation and SIA. The analysis is based on time slice climatologies in the RCP8.5 future scenario (2070-2099) and historical (1970-1999) simulations across 37 different CMIP5 models. Projected changes in net precipitation, temperature and SIA are found to be strongly associated with simulated historical mean SIA (e.g. cross-model correlations of r = 0.77, 0.70 and -0.86, respectively). Furthermore, historical SIA bias is found to have a large impact on the simulated ratio between net precipitation response and temperature response. This ratio is smaller in models with smaller-than-observed historical SIA. These findings are particularly relevant to quantifying and reducing model uncertainty in projections of Antarctic surface mass balance and associated contributions to sea level change.

  4. Results of photochemical modeling sensitivity analyses in the Lake Michigan region: Current status of Lake Michigan Ozone Control Program (LMOP) modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dolwick, P.D. [Lake Michigan Air Directors Consortium, Des Plaines, IL (United States); Kaleel, R.J. [Illinois Environmental Protection Agency, Springfield, IL (United States); Majewski, M.A. [Wisconsin Dept. of Natural Resources, Madison, WI (United States)

    1994-12-31

    The four states that border Lake Michigan are cooperatively applying a state-of-the-art nested photochemical grid model to assess the effects of potential emission control strategies on reducing elevated tropospheric ozone concentrations in the region to levels below the national ambient air quality standard. In order to provide an extensive database to support the application of the photochemical model, a substantial data collection effort known as the Lake Michigan Ozone Study (LMOS) was completed during the summer of 1991. The Lake Michigan Ozone Control Program (LMOP) was established by the States of Illinois, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Indiana to carry out the application of the modeling system developed from the LMOS, in terms of developing the attainment demonstrations required from this area by the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990.

  5. Model simulations of the fate of 14C added to a Canadian shield lake

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carbon-14 was added to the epilimnion of a small Canadian Shield lake to investigate primary production and carbon dynamics. The nature of the spike and subsequent monitoring allowed the investigation of both short-term and longer-term processes relevant to evaluating impacts of accidental and routine releases and of solid waste disposal. Data from this experiment were used in the BIOMOVS II program as a validation test for modelling the fate of the 14C added to the lake. Four models were used: (1) a simple probabilistic mass balance model of a lake; (2) a relatively complex deterministic model; (3) a complex deterministic model; and (4) a more complex probabilistic model. Endpoints were 14C concentrations in water, sediment and lake whitefish over a thirteen year period. Each model produced reasonable predictions when compared to the range of the observed data and when uncertainty in model predictions is taken into consideration. The simple lake model did not account for internal recycling of 14C and, in this respect, its predictions were not as realistic as those of the more complex models for concentrations in water. However, the simple model predictions for the 14C inventory remaining in lake sediment were closest to the observed values. Overall, the more complex probabilistic model was the most accurate in simulating 14C concentrations in water and in whitefish but it overestimated 14C retention in the lake sediments, as did the other complex models. Choice of parameter values for transfer rate to sediment and gaseous evasion are important in influencing model predictions. Although predicted concentrations of 14C in fish of dynamic models were more accurate than those using equilibrium bioconcentration factors typically used in assessments, large variability in observed 14C concentrations in whitefish emphasizes the need for a better understanding of the important processes that influence these contaminant concentrations. (Copyright (c) 1998 Elsevier Science B

  6. Microphysical Modeling and POAM III Observations of Aerosol Extinction in the 1998-2003 Antarctic Stratosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benson, C. M.; Drdla, K.; Nedoluha, G. E.; Shettle, E. P.; Alfred, J.; Hoppel, K. W.

    2005-12-01

    The Integrated Microphysics and Chemistry on Trajectories (IMPACT) model is used to study Polar stratospheric cloud formation and evolution in the Southern Polar vortex during the 1998-2003 winters. The model is applied to individual air parcels which are advected through the vortex on UKMO wind and temperature fields. The parcel temperature and pressure histories are used by IMPACT to calculate the formation and sedimentation of ice, NAT, SAT, and STS aerosols. Model results are validated by the Polar Ozone and Aerosol Measurement (POAM) III solar occultation instrument. Comparisons of POAM data to the model results help to constrain the microphysical parameters influencing aerosol formation and growth. Measurements of the water vapor mixing ratio are of limited use in clarifying the model microphysics; however, POAM measurements of aerosol extinction prove to be valuable in differentiating model runs. Specifically, the relationship of aerosol extinction to temperature arises from the different temperatures at which the various particle types form and grow. Comparisons of IMPACT calculations of this relationship to POAM measurements constrain the initial fraction of nuclei available for heterogeneous NAT freezing to 0.02% of all aerosols. Constraints are also placed on the ice accommodation coefficient and the NAT-ice lattice compatibility factor. However, these two parameters have similar effects on the extinction-temperature relationship, and thus a range of values are permissible for each.

  7. Digital elevation model of Walker Lake, West-Central Nevada

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — Walker Lake lies within a topographically closed basin in west-central Nevada and is the terminus of the Walker River. Accurately determining the bathymetry and...

  8. Study of tributary inflows in Lake Iseo with a rotating physical model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marco Pilotti

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available The influence of Coriolis force on the currents of large lakes is well acknowledged; very few contributions, however, investigate this aspect in medium-size lakes where its relevance could be questionable. In order to study the area of influence of the two major tributary rivers in Lake Iseo, a rotating vertically distorted physical model of the northern part of this lake was prepared and used, respecting both Froude and Rossby similarity. The model has a horizontal length scale factor of 8000 and a vertical scale factor of 500 and was used both in homogeneous and in thermally stratified conditions. We explored the pattern of water circulation in front of the entrance mouth for different hydrologic scenarios at the beginning of spring and in summer. We neglected the influence of winds. The primary purposes of the model were twofold: i to increase our level of knowledge of the hydrodynamics of Lake Iseo by verifying the occurrence of dynamical effects related to the Earth’s rotation on the plume of the two tributaries that enter the northern part of the lake and ii to identify the areas of the lake that can be directly influenced by the tributaries’ waters, in order to provide guidance on water quality monitoring in zones of relevant environmental and touristic value. The results of the physical model confirm the relevant role played by the Coriolis force in the northern part of the lake. Under ordinary flow conditions, the model shows a systematic deflection of the inflowing waters towards the western shore of the lake. The inflow triggers a clockwise gyre within the Lovere bay, to the West of the inflow, and a slow counter-clockwise gyre, to the East of the inflow, that returns water towards the river mouth along the eastern shore. For discharges with higher return period, when only the contribution by Oglio River is relevant, the effect of the Earth’s rotation weakens in the entrance zone and the plume has a more rectilinear pattern

  9. Antarctic news clips, 1991

    Science.gov (United States)

    1991-08-01

    Published stories are presented that sample a year's news coverage of Antarctica. The intent is to provide the U.S. Antarctic Program participants with a digest of current issues as presented by a variety of writers and popular publications. The subject areas covered include the following: earth science; ice studies; stratospheric ozone; astrophysics; life science; operations; education; antarctic treaty issues; and tourism

  10. Multi-phase analytical model of radionuclide migration in lake water and bottom sediment system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Maceika, Evaldas; Filistovic, Vitold; Luksiene, Bena; Tarasiuk, Nikolay; Buivydas, Sarunas; Konstantinova, Marina; Puzas, Andrius [State research institute Center for Physical Sciences and Technology, Savanoriu ave. 231, LT-2300 Vilnius (Lithuania)

    2014-07-01

    Migration of long-lived radionuclides in lake eco-system is governed by several processes: advection, dilution, seasonal exchange, sedimentation; bioaccumulation. Interaction of dissolved radionuclide in water with the bottom sediments is of particular importance. Radionuclide can be adsorbed and desorbed by the bottom sediments. In turn, radionuclide is rapidly absorbed by organic and nonorganic origin particles in the lake water sphere. At the end, the particles will sink to the lake bottom and will form sediment layers of elevated contamination. Therefore explicit evaluation and balance of multi-phase radionuclide activity fluxes at the interface of lake water and bottom sediments surface is modelled in details. Created mathematical model, analytically describing dynamic of radionuclide migration, encompass both spheres of lake eco-system: water and bottom sediments. Solid and liquid radionuclide activity fractions are considered in every sphere. Sediment contamination is described by 1-D depth dependent advection-diffusion and adsorption/desorption reaction equation. Processes, taking place in the solid phase at the lake water sphere, are described by the adsorption/desorption dynamic equation as well as by activity fluxes balance at the interface with bottom sediments. Mathematical equations are rapidly solved by using Laplace transform and numerical inversion methods. Created model better described experimental measurement data of {sup 137}Cs radionuclide activity distribution profiles in studied lake bottom sediment vertical layers. This research was funded by a grant (No. MIP-041/2012) from the Research Council of Lithuania. (authors)

  11. Multi-phase analytical model of radionuclide migration in lake water and bottom sediment system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Migration of long-lived radionuclides in lake eco-system is governed by several processes: advection, dilution, seasonal exchange, sedimentation; bioaccumulation. Interaction of dissolved radionuclide in water with the bottom sediments is of particular importance. Radionuclide can be adsorbed and desorbed by the bottom sediments. In turn, radionuclide is rapidly absorbed by organic and nonorganic origin particles in the lake water sphere. At the end, the particles will sink to the lake bottom and will form sediment layers of elevated contamination. Therefore explicit evaluation and balance of multi-phase radionuclide activity fluxes at the interface of lake water and bottom sediments surface is modelled in details. Created mathematical model, analytically describing dynamic of radionuclide migration, encompass both spheres of lake eco-system: water and bottom sediments. Solid and liquid radionuclide activity fractions are considered in every sphere. Sediment contamination is described by 1-D depth dependent advection-diffusion and adsorption/desorption reaction equation. Processes, taking place in the solid phase at the lake water sphere, are described by the adsorption/desorption dynamic equation as well as by activity fluxes balance at the interface with bottom sediments. Mathematical equations are rapidly solved by using Laplace transform and numerical inversion methods. Created model better described experimental measurement data of 137Cs radionuclide activity distribution profiles in studied lake bottom sediment vertical layers. This research was funded by a grant (No. MIP-041/2012) from the Research Council of Lithuania. (authors)

  12. Europa's Great Lakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmidt, B. E.; Blankenship, D. D.; Patterson, G. W.; Schenk, P. M.

    2012-04-01

    Unique to the surface of Europa, chaos terrain is diagnostic of the properties and dynamics of its icy shell. While models have suggested that partial melt within a thick shell or melt-through of a thin shell may form chaos, neither model has been able to definitively explain all observations of chaos terrain. However, we present a new model that suggests large melt lenses form within the shell and that water-ice interactions above and within these lenses drive the production of chaos. Our analysis of the geomorphology of Conamara Chaos and Thera Macula, was used to infer and test a four-stage lens-collapse chaos formation model: 1) Thermal plumes of warm, pure ice ascend through the shell melting the impure brittle ice above, producing a lake of briny water and surface down draw due to volume reduction. 2) Surface deflection and driving force from the plume below hydraulically seals the water in place. 3) Extension of the brittle ice lid generates fractures from below, allowing brines to enter and fluidize the ice matrix. 4) As the lens and now brash matrix refreeze, thermal expansion creates domes and raises the chaos feature above the background terrain. This new "lense-collapse" model indicates that chaos features form in the presence of a great deal of liquid water, and that large liquid water bodies exist within 3km of Europa's surface comparable in volume to the North American Great Lakes. The detection of shallow subsurface "lakes" implies that the ice shell is recycling rapidly and that Europa may be currently active. In this presentation, we will explore environments on Europa and their analogs on Earth, from collapsing Antarctic ice shelves to to subglacial volcanos in Iceland. I will present these new analyses, and describe how this new perspective informs the debate about Europa's habitability and future exploration.

  13. GLIMMER Antarctic Ice Sheet Model,an experimental research of moving boundary condition

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Tang Xueyuan; Sun Bo; Zhang Zhanhai; Li Yuansheng; Yang Qinghua

    2008-01-01

    A 3 D coupled ice sheet model,GLIMMER model is introduced,and an idealized ice sheet experiment under the EISMINT 1 criterion of moving boundary condition is presented.The results of the experiment reveal that for a steady state ice sheet profile the characteristic curves describe the process of evolution which are accordant with theoretical estimates.By solving the coupled thermodynamics equations of ice sheet,one may find the characteristic curves which derived from the conservation of the mass,energy and momentum to the ice flow profile.At the same time,an agreement,approximate to the GLIMMER case and the confirmed theoretical results,is found.Present study is explorihg work to introduceand discuss the handicaps of EISMINT criterion and GLIMMER,and prospect a few directions of the GLIMMER model.

  14. A mathematical model for lake ontogeny in terms of filling with sediments and macrophyte vegetation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brydsten, Lars [Umeaa Univ. (Sweden). Dept. of Biology and Environmental Science

    2004-05-01

    A mathematical model for simulation of lake basin filling processes in areas with positive shore displacement was constructed. The model was calibrated using sediment and catchments data from eight existing lake basins situated in the northern coastal area of the province of Uppland, Sweden. The lake basin filling processes were separated into three phases: basin filling with wave-washed material (silt, silty sand or sand), filling with fine-grained material during the shallow gulf and lake stages, respectively, and filling with vegetation during the lake stage. The basin filling rates for wave-washed material were generally low but varied considerably both between and within lakes. The mean basin filling rate of wave-washed material was 4.1%. The volume of inorganic sediments produced, and basin filling rates during the shallow gulf and lake phases were determined for all the eight lakes. The relationship between basin filling rate and parameters describing the catchments, the former postglacial basins and the lakes, respectively, was determined using multiple regression analysis. The basin filling rate with inorganic sediments was best described by parameters related to former postglacial basin morphometry and current lake morphometry, e.g. basin volume, lake volume, and lake area. The goodness of fit turned out to be 0.99 for a simple regression with basin volume as the sole independent variable. The basin filling with vegetation (Phragmites australis followed by Sphagnum spp.) was treated as a 2-dimensional process. A dataset with 84 bogs was selected from a digital soil map. The ages of the bogs were calculated using a digital elevation map and an equation for shore displacement. The choke-up rate was then calculated by dividing the area of the bogs with their age. A strong exponential relationship exists between areas of the bogs and choke-up rat, and this relationship was then used in the model. The resulting model starts by filling the former coastal basin

  15. A mathematical model for lake ontogeny in terms of filling with sediments and macrophyte vegetation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A mathematical model for simulation of lake basin filling processes in areas with positive shore displacement was constructed. The model was calibrated using sediment and catchments data from eight existing lake basins situated in the northern coastal area of the province of Uppland, Sweden. The lake basin filling processes were separated into three phases: basin filling with wave-washed material (silt, silty sand or sand), filling with fine-grained material during the shallow gulf and lake stages, respectively, and filling with vegetation during the lake stage. The basin filling rates for wave-washed material were generally low but varied considerably both between and within lakes. The mean basin filling rate of wave-washed material was 4.1%. The volume of inorganic sediments produced, and basin filling rates during the shallow gulf and lake phases were determined for all the eight lakes. The relationship between basin filling rate and parameters describing the catchments, the former postglacial basins and the lakes, respectively, was determined using multiple regression analysis. The basin filling rate with inorganic sediments was best described by parameters related to former postglacial basin morphometry and current lake morphometry, e.g. basin volume, lake volume, and lake area. The goodness of fit turned out to be 0.99 for a simple regression with basin volume as the sole independent variable. The basin filling with vegetation (Phragmites australis followed by Sphagnum spp.) was treated as a 2-dimensional process. A dataset with 84 bogs was selected from a digital soil map. The ages of the bogs were calculated using a digital elevation map and an equation for shore displacement. The choke-up rate was then calculated by dividing the area of the bogs with their age. A strong exponential relationship exists between areas of the bogs and choke-up rat, and this relationship was then used in the model. The resulting model starts by filling the former coastal basin

  16. On the influence of model physics on simulations of Arctic and Antarctic sea ice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Massonnet

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available Two hindcast (1983–2007 simulations are performed with the global, ocean-sea ice models NEMO-LIM2 and NEMO-LIM3 driven by atmospheric reanalyses and climatologies. The two simulations differ only in their sea ice component, while all other elements of experimental design (resolution, initial conditions, atmospheric forcing are kept identical. The main differences in the sea ice models lie in the formulation of the subgrid-scale ice thickness distribution, of the thermodynamic processes, of the sea ice salinity and of the sea ice rheology. To assess the differences in model skill over the period of investigation, we develop a set of metrics for both hemispheres, comparing the main sea ice variables (concentration, thickness and drift to available observations and focusing on both mean state and seasonal to interannual variability. Based upon these metrics, we discuss the physical processes potentially responsible for the differences in model skill. In particular, we suggest that (i a detailed representation of the ice thickness distribution increases the seasonal to interannual variability of ice extent, with spectacular improvement for the simulation of the recent observed summer Arctic sea ice retreats, (ii the elastic-viscous-plastic rheology enhances the response of ice to wind stress, compared to the classical viscous-plastic approach, (iii the grid formulation and the air-sea ice drag coefficient affect the simulated ice export through Fram Strait and the ice accumulation along the Canadian Archipelago, and (iv both models show less skill in the Southern Ocean, probably due to the low quality of the reanalyses in this region and to the absence of important small-scale oceanic processes at the models' resolution (~1°.

  17. Large-Ensemble Modeling of Past Variations in West Antarctic Embayments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pollard, D.; Deconto, R. M.

    2014-12-01

    Recent observations of thinning and retreat of the Pine Island and Thwaites Glaciers identify this sector of West Antarctica as particularly vulnerable to future climate change. To date, most future modeling of these glaciers has beenvalidated using recent and modern observations. As an alternate approach,we apply a hybrid 3-D ice sheet-shelf model to the last deglacial retreat in this sector, making use of geologic data of ice extents from ~20,000 years BP to present, both for the Amundsen Sea sector and also for the Ross and Weddellembayments.Following recent ice-sheet studies, we use Large-Ensemble statistical techniques, performing sets of ~500 to 1000 runs with varying model parameters. The model is run for the last 20 kyrs on 5 to 20-km grids spanning West Antarctica, with lateral boundary conditions from a prior continental-scale simulation. An objective score for each run is calculated using reconstructed past grounding lines, shelf extents, relative sea levels, and modern conditions. Runs are extended into the future (few millennia) with simple atmospheric and oceanic forcing. The goal is to produce calibrated probabilistic envelopes of model parameter ranges and simulated ice retreat.Preliminary results are presented for Large Ensembles with (i) Latin HyperCube sampling in high-dimensional parameter space, and (ii) dense sampling with a lower number of parameters. We focus on optimal parameter differencesbetween the 3 embayments, validation with other paleo data, contribution to meltwater pulses ~14 to 12 ka, and future projections. Most reasonable parameter combinations produce drastic future retreat into the interior Pine Island and Thwaites basins within ~2000 years, adding ~2 m to global sea-level rise.

  18. Identifying the origin of waterbird carcasses in Lake Michigan using a neural network source tracking model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kenow, Kevin P.; Ge, Zhongfu; Fara, Luke J.; Houdek, Steven C.; Lubinski, B.

    2016-01-01

    Avian botulism type E is responsible for extensive waterbird mortality on the Great Lakes, yet the actual site of toxin exposure remains unclear. Beached carcasses are often used to describe the spatial aspects of botulism mortality outbreaks, but lack specificity of offshore toxin source locations. We detail methodology for developing a neural network model used for predicting waterbird carcass motions in response to wind, wave, and current forcing, in lieu of a complex analytical relationship. This empirically trained model uses current velocity, wind velocity, significant wave height, and wave peak period in Lake Michigan simulated by the Great Lakes Coastal Forecasting System. A detailed procedure is further developed to use the model for back-tracing waterbird carcasses found on beaches in various parts of Lake Michigan, which was validated using drift data for radiomarked common loon (Gavia immer) carcasses deployed at a variety of locations in northern Lake Michigan during September and October of 2013. The back-tracing model was further used on 22 non-radiomarked common loon carcasses found along the shoreline of northern Lake Michigan in October and November of 2012. The model-estimated origins of those cases pointed to some common source locations offshore that coincide with concentrations of common loons observed during aerial surveys. The neural network source tracking model provides a promising approach for identifying locations of botulinum neurotoxin type E intoxication and, in turn, contributes to developing an understanding of the dynamics of toxin production and possible trophic transfer pathways.

  19. Sustainable fisheries in shallow lakes: an independent empirical test of the Chinese mitten crab yield model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Haijun; Liang, Xiaomin; Wang, Hongzhu

    2016-08-01

    Next to excessive nutrient loading, intensive aquaculture is one of the major anthropogenic impacts threatening lake ecosystems. In China, particularly in the shallow lakes of mid-lower Changjiang (Yangtze) River, continuous overstocking of the Chinese mitten crab (Eriocheir sinensis) could deteriorate water quality and exhaust natural resources. A series of crab yield models and a general optimum-stocking rate model have been established, which seek to benefit both crab culture and the environment. In this research, independent investigations were carried out to evaluate the crab yield models and modify the optimum-stocking model. Low percentage errors (average 47%, median 36%) between observed and calculated crab yields were obtained. Specific values were defined for adult crab body mass (135 g/ind.) and recapture rate (18% and 30% in lakes with submerged macrophyte biomass above and below 1 000 g/m2) to modify the optimum-stocking model. Analysis based on the modified optimum-stocking model indicated that the actual stocking rates in most lakes were much higher than the calculated optimum-stocking rates. This implies that, for most lakes, the current stocking rates should be greatly reduced to maintain healthy lake ecosystems.

  20. Hydrologic behaviour of the Lake of Monate (Italy): a parsimonious modelling strategy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tomesani, Giulia; Soligno, Irene; Castellarin, Attilio; Baratti, Emanuele; Cervi, Federico; Montanari, Alberto

    2016-04-01

    The Lake of Monate (province of Varese, Northern Italy), is a unique example of ecosystem in equilibrium. The lake water quality is deemed excellent notwithstanding the intensive agricultural cultivation, industrial assets and mining activities characterising the surrounding areas. The lake has a true touristic vocation and is the only swimmable water body of the province of Varese, which counts several natural lakes. Lake of Monate has no tributary and its overall watershed area is equal to c.a. 6.6 km2 including the lake surface (i.e. 2.6 km2), of which 3.3 out of c.a. 4.0 km2 belong to the topographical watershed, while the remaining 0.7 km2 belong to the underground watershed. The latter is larger than the topographical watershed due to the presence of moraine formations on top of the limestone bedrock. The local administration recently promoted an intensive environmental monitoring campaign that aims to reach a better understanding of the hydrology of the lake and the subsurface water fluxes. The monitoring campaign started in October 2013 and, as a result, several meteoclimatic and hydrologic data have been collected up to now at daily and hourly timescales. Our study focuses on a preliminary representation of the hydrological behaviour of the lake through a modified version of HyMOD, a conceptual 5-parameter lumped rainfall-runoff model based on the probability-distributed soil storage capacity. The modified model is a semi-distributed application of HyMOD that uses the same five parameters of the original version and simulates the rainfall-runoff transformation for the whole lake watershed at daily time scale in terms of: direct precipitation on, and evaporation from, the lake surface; overall lake inflow, by separating the runoff component (topographic watershed) from the groundwater component (overall watershed); lake water-level oscillation; streamflow at the lake outlet. We used the first year of hydrometeorological observations as calibration data and

  1. Testing a numerical model for thermokarst lake expansion using morphologic measurements, N. Seward Peninsula, Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plug, L. J.; Walter, K.; Grosse, G.; Anthony, P.; Smith, M.

    2008-12-01

    The initiation and growth of thermokarst lakes are major factors in the dynamics of ice-rich permafrost lowlands in N. America and Siberia. These landscapes may be a globally-significant influence to past and present climates, because they store Pleistocene and Holocene C and may release it as CH4 to the atmosphere over relatively rapid time-scales. A numerical model that combines thermal processes (heat flow in lake water and permafrost) and geomorphic processes (thaw subsidence and mass movement) is a new and promising tool to investigate the influence of substrate, ground ice content, and climate on the expansion of thermokarst lakes. Models also might be used to predict dynamics of lakes and related biogeochemical processes in coming decades, given anticipated continued warming in high latitude regions. The geomorphic processes that shape natural thaw lake margins include a complicated range of diffusive and advective processes spanning simple creep to more complicated mechanisms including ice wedge melting, thaw slumping, peat-block toppling, turbidity flows, and possibly animal disturbance. The model treats the combined and time-averaged effect of these processes using new and relatively simple algorithms for slope failure and transport distance, which together produce both diffusive and advective behavior. Initial comparisons of the model with measured lake bluffs and bathymetry indicated a good match, but more measurements are needed to fully test and calibrate the model. We measured the bluff morphology and bathymetry of selected lakes of various sizes and age in the Kitluk River, Seward Peninsula, NW Alaska using sonar and DGPS. The region is characterized by continuous permafrost, a highly dissected and dynamic thermokarst landscape, uplands of Late Pleistocene permafrost deposits with high excess ice contents, and a large total volume of permafrost-stored carbon. We drive the model using approximate ground ice conditions for each lake, and compare

  2. A multi-source satellite data approach for modelling Lake Turkana water level: Calibration and validation using satellite altimetry data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Velpuri, N.M.; Senay, G.B.; Asante, K.O.

    2012-01-01

    Lake Turkana is one of the largest desert lakes in the world and is characterized by high degrees of interand intra-annual fluctuations. The hydrology and water balance of this lake have not been well understood due to its remote location and unavailability of reliable ground truth datasets. Managing surface water resources is a great challenge in areas where in-situ data are either limited or unavailable. In this study, multi-source satellite-driven data such as satellite-based rainfall estimates, modelled runoff, evapotranspiration, and a digital elevation dataset were used to model Lake Turkana water levels from 1998 to 2009. Due to the unavailability of reliable lake level data, an approach is presented to calibrate and validate the water balance model of Lake Turkana using a composite lake level product of TOPEX/Poseidon, Jason-1, and ENVISAT satellite altimetry data. Model validation results showed that the satellitedriven water balance model can satisfactorily capture the patterns and seasonal variations of the Lake Turkana water level fluctuations with a Pearson's correlation coefficient of 0.90 and a Nash-Sutcliffe Coefficient of Efficiency (NSCE) of 0.80 during the validation period (2004-2009). Model error estimates were within 10% of the natural variability of the lake. Our analysis indicated that fluctuations in Lake Turkana water levels are mainly driven by lake inflows and over-the-lake evaporation. Over-the-lake rainfall contributes only up to 30% of lake evaporative demand. During the modelling time period, Lake Turkana showed seasonal variations of 1-2m. The lake level fluctuated in the range up to 4m between the years 1998-2009. This study demonstrated the usefulness of satellite altimetry data to calibrate and validate the satellite-driven hydrological model for Lake Turkana without using any in-situ data. Furthermore, for Lake Turkana, we identified and outlined opportunities and challenges of using a calibrated satellite-driven water balance

  3. Understanding the performance of the FLake model over the East-African Great Lakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thiery, Wim; Martynov, Andrey; Darchambeau, François; Plisnier, Pierre-Denis; Descy, Jean-Pierre; van Lipzig, Nicole

    2013-04-01

    As a one-dimensional lake parameterisation scheme, FLake has already been coupled to a large number of numerical weather prediction systems, regional climate models and general circulation models. However, even though FLake has therewith become a vital tool to investigate and predict climate change impacts on lacustrine ecosystems, it has never been thoroughly tested for tropical conditions. In this study, the ability of FLake to represent tropical mixolimnion temperatures is investigated for three locations in East-Africa: Lake Kivu, Lake Tanganyika's northern and southern basins. Meteorological observations from surrounding automatic weather stations are corrected and subsequently used to drive FLake, whereas a comprehensive set of water temperature profiles serves to evaluate the model at each site. Careful input data correction and model configuration allows to reproduce the observed mixed layer seasonality at Lake Kivu and Lake Tanganyika (northern and southern basins), with correct representation of both the mixed layer depth and temperature structure. In contrast, when FLake is forced with uncorrected meteorological observations or with ERA-Interim reanalysis data, a correct mixing cycle is predicted only for Lake Tanganyika's southern basin: this is mainly due to an underestimation of wind velocities. At Lake Kivu, an extensive sensitivity study reveals that FLake's water column temperatures are sensitive both to minimal variations in the external parameters (lake depth and water transparency) and to small changes in the meteorological driving data, in particular wind velocity. In each case, small modifications may already lead to a regime switch from the correctly represented seasonal mixolimnion deepening to either completely mixed or permanently stratified conditions. Near-surface water temperatures are however more robust, with acceptable predictions even when the seasonal mixing regime is not reproduced. Furthermore, a study of different initial

  4. Estimation of Transport Trajectory and Residence Time in Large River–Lake Systems: Application to Poyang Lake (China Using a Combined Model Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yunliang Li

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The biochemical processes and associated water quality in many lakes mainly depend on their transport behaviors. Most existing methodologies for investigating transport behaviors are based on physically based numerical models. The pollutant transport trajectory and residence time of Poyang Lake are thought to have important implications for the steadily deteriorating water quality and the associated rapid environmental changes during the flood period. This study used a hydrodynamic model (MIKE 21 in conjunction with transport and particle-tracking sub-models to provide comprehensive investigation of transport behaviors in Poyang Lake. Model simulations reveal that the lake’s prevailing water flow patterns cause a unique transport trajectory that primarily develops from the catchment river mouths to the downstream area along the lake’s main flow channels, similar to a river-transport behavior. Particle tracking results show that the mean residence time of the lake is 89 days during July–September. The effect of the Yangtze River (the effluent of the lake on the residence time is stronger than that of the catchment river inflows. The current study represents a first attempt to use a combined model approach to provide insights into the transport behaviors for a large river–lake system, given proposals to manage the pollutant inputs both directly to the lake and catchment rivers.

  5. Modelling the mass balance and salinity of Arctic and Antarctic sea ice

    OpenAIRE

    Vancoppenolle, Martin

    2008-01-01

    Ice formed from seawater, called sea ice, is both an important actor in and a sensitive indicator of climate change. Covering 7% of the World Ocean, sea ice damps the atmosphere-ocean exchanges of heat, radiation and momentum in polar regions. It also affects the oceanic circulation at a global scale. Recent satellite and submarine observations systems indicate a sharp decrease in the extent and volume of Arctic sea ice over the last 30 years. In addition, climate models project drastic sea i...

  6. Inclusion of mountain wave-induced cooling for the formation of PSCs over the Antarctic Peninsula in a chemistry–climate model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Orr

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available An important source of polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs, which play a crucial role in controlling polar stratospheric ozone depletion, is from the temperature fluctuations induced by mountain waves. However, this formation mechanism is usually missing in chemistry–climate models because these temperature fluctuations are neither resolved nor parameterised. Here, we investigate the representation of stratospheric mountain wave-induced temperature fluctuations by the UK Met Office Unified Model (UM at high and low spatial resolution against Atmospheric Infrared Sounder satellite observations for three case studies over the Antarctic Peninsula. At a high horizontal resolution (4 km the mesoscale configuration of the UM correctly simulates the magnitude, timing, and location of the measured temperature fluctuations. By comparison, at a low horizontal resolution (2.5° × 3.75° the climate configuration fails to resolve such disturbances. However, it is demonstrated that the temperature fluctuations computed by a mountain wave parameterisation scheme inserted into the climate configuration (which computes the temperature fluctuations due to unresolved mountain waves are in excellent agreement with the mesoscale configuration responses. The parameterisation was subsequently used to compute the local mountain wave-induced cooling phases in the chemistry–climate configuration of the UM. This increased stratospheric cooling was passed to the PSC scheme of the chemistry–climate model, and caused a 30–50% increase in PSC surface area density over the Antarctic Peninsula compared to a 30 year control simulation.

  7. Controls and variability of solute and sedimentary fluxes in Antarctic and sub-Antarctic Environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zwolinski, Zbigniew

    2015-04-01

    The currently prepared SEDIBUD Book on "Source-to-Sink Fluxes in Undisturbed Cold Environments" (edited by Achim A. Beylich, John C. Dixon and Zbigniew Zwolinski and published by Cambridge University Press) is summarizing and synthesizing the achievements of the International Association of Geomorphologists` (I.A.G./A.I.G.) Working Group SEDIBUD (Sediment Budgets in Cold Environments), which has been active since 2005 (http://www.geomorph.org/wg/wgsb.html). The book comprises five parts. One of them is part about sub-Antarctic and Antarctic Environments. This part "Sub-Antarctic and Antarctic Environments" describes two different environments, namely oceanic and continental ones. Each part contains results of research on environmental drivers and rates of contemporary solute and sedimentary fluxes in selected sites. Apart from describing the environmental conditions of the whole continent of Antarctica and sub-Antarctic islands (Zb.Zwolinski, M.Kejna, A.N.Lastochkin, A.Zhirov, S.Boltramovich) this part of the book characterizes terrestrial polar oases free from multi-year ice and snow covers (Zb.Zwolinski). The detailed results of geoecological and sedimentological research come from different parts of Antarctica. Antarctic continental shelf (E.Isla) is an example of sub-Antarctic oceanic environment. South Shetlands, especially King George Island (Zb.Zwolinski, M.Kejna, G.Rachlewicz, I.Sobota, J.Szpikowski), is an example of sub-Antarctic terrestrial environment. Antarctic Peninsula (G.Vieira, M.Francelino, J.C.Fernandes) and surroundings of McMurdo Dry Valleys (W.B.Lyons, K.A.Welch, J.Levy, A.Fountain, D.McKnight) are examples of Antarctic continental environments. The key goals of the Antarctic and sub-Antarctic book chapters are following: (i) identify the main environmental drivers and rates of contemporary solute and sedimentary fluxes, and (ii) model possible effects of projected climate change on solute and sedimentary fluxes in cold climate environments

  8. PREDICTED SEDIMENTARY SECTION OF SUBGLACIAL LAKE VOSTOK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. I. Leychenkov

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available In early February 2012, the drill hole at the Vostok Station encountered theLakeVostokwater. This step is important to study the lake composition including possible microbial life and to model subglacial environments however, the next ambitious target of the Vostok Drilling Project is sampling of bottom sediments, which contain the unique record of ice sheet evolution and environmental changes in centralAntarcticafor millions of years. In this connection, the forecast of sedimentary succession based on existing geophysical data, study of mineral inclusions in the accretion ice cores and tectonic models is important task. Interpretation of Airborne geophysical data suggests thatLakeVostokis the part of spacious rift system, which exists at least from Cretaceous. Reflection and refraction seismic experiments conducted in the southern part ofLakeVostokshow very thin (200–300 m stratified sedimentary cover overlying crystalline basement with velocity of 6.0–6.2 km/s. At present, deposition in southernLakeVostokis absent and similar conditions occurred likely at least last3 m.y. when ice sheet aboveLakeVostokchanged insignificantly. It can be also inferred that from the Late Miocene the rate of deposition inLakeVostokwas extremely low and so the most of sedimentary section is older being possibly of Oligocene to early to middle Miocene age when ice sheet oscillated and deposition was more vigorous. If so, the sampling of upper few meters of this condensed section is very informative in terms of history of Antarctic glaciation. Small thickness of sedimentary cover raises a question about existence of lake (rift depression during preglacial and early glacial times.

  9. Cluster regression model and level fluctuation features of Van Lake, Turkey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Z. Şen

    Full Text Available Lake water levels change under the influences of natural and/or anthropogenic environmental conditions. Among these influences are the climate change, greenhouse effects and ozone layer depletions which are reflected in the hydrological cycle features over the lake drainage basins. Lake levels are among the most significant hydrological variables that are influenced by different atmospheric and environmental conditions. Consequently, lake level time series in many parts of the world include nonstationarity components such as shifts in the mean value, apparent or hidden periodicities. On the other hand, many lake level modeling techniques have a stationarity assumption. The main purpose of this work is to develop a cluster regression model for dealing with nonstationarity especially in the form of shifting means. The basis of this model is the combination of transition probability and classical regression technique. Both parts of the model are applied to monthly level fluctuations of Lake Van in eastern Turkey. It is observed that the cluster regression procedure does preserve the statistical properties and the transitional probabilities that are indistinguishable from the original data.

    Key words. Hydrology (hydrologic budget; stochastic processes · Meteorology and atmospheric dynamics (ocean-atmosphere interactions

  10. Hydrodynamic and Inundation Modeling of China’s Largest Freshwater Lake Aided by Remote Sensing Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peng Zhang

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available China’s largest freshwater lake, Poyang Lake, is characterized by rapid changes in its inundation area and hydrodynamics, so in this study, a hydrodynamic model of Poyang Lake was established to simulate these long-term changes. Inundation information was extracted from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS remote sensing data and used to calibrate the wetting and drying parameter by assessing the accuracy of the simulated inundation area and its boundary. The bottom friction parameter was calibrated using current velocity measurements from Acoustic Doppler Current Profilers (ADCP. The results show the model is capable of predicting the inundation area dynamic through cross-validation with remotely sensed inundation data, and can reproduce the seasonal dynamics of the water level, and water discharge through a comparison with hydrological data. Based on the model results, the characteristics of the current velocities of the lake in the wet season and the dry season of the lake were explored, and the potential effect of the current dynamic on water quality patterns was discussed. The model is a promising basic tool for prediction and management of the water resource and water quality of Poyang Lake.

  11. ANALYSIS OF WATER QUALITY IN SHALLOW LAKES WITH A TWO-DIMENSIONAL FLOW-SEDIMENT MODEL

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2007-01-01

    The governing equation for sediment pollutions was derived based on the turbulent diffusion of pollutants in shallow lakes. Coupled with shallow water equations, a depth-averaged 2-D flow and water quality model was developed. By means of the conservation law, a proposed differential equation for the change of sediment pollutants was linked to the 2-D equations. Under the framework of the finite volume method, the Osher approximate Riemann solver was employed to solve the equations. An analytical resolution was used to examine the model capabilities. Simulated results matched the exact solutions especially well. As an example, the simulation of CODMn in the Wuli Lake, a part of the Taihu lake, was conducted, which led to reasonable results. This study provides a new approach and a practical tool for the simulation of flow and water quality in shallow lakes.

  12. Modeling the impediment of methane ebullition bubbles by seasonal lake ice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Greene

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Microbial methane (CH4 ebullition (bubbling from anoxic lake sediments comprises a globally significant flux to the atmosphere, but ebullition bubbles in temperate and polar lakes can be trapped by winter ice cover and later released during spring thaw. This "ice-bubble storage" (IBS constitutes a novel mode of CH4 emission. Before bubbles are encapsulated by downward-growing ice, some of their CH4 dissolves into the lake water, where it may be subject to oxidation. We present field characterization and a model of the annual CH4 cycle in Goldstream Lake, a thermokarst (thaw lake in interior Alaska. We find that summertime ebullition dominates annual CH4 emissions to the atmosphere. Eighty percent of CH4 in bubbles trapped by ice dissolves into the lake water column in winter, and about half of that is oxidized. The ice growth rate and the magnitude of the CH4 ebullition flux are important controlling factors of bubble dissolution. Seven percent of annual ebullition CH4 is trapped as IBS and later emitted as ice melts. In a future warmer climate, there will likely be less seasonal ice cover, less IBS, less CH4 dissolution from trapped bubbles, and greater CH4 emissions from northern lakes.

  13. Using multi-source satellite data for lake level modelling in ungauged basins: A case study for Lake Turkana, East Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Velpuri, N.M.; Senay, G.B.; Asante, K.O.

    2011-01-01

    Managing limited surface water resources is a great challenge in areas where ground-based data are either limited or unavailable. Direct or indirect measurements of surface water resources through remote sensing offer several advantages of monitoring in ungauged basins. A physical based hydrologic technique to monitor lake water levels in ungauged basins using multi-source satellite data such as satellite-based rainfall estimates, modelled runoff, evapotranspiration, a digital elevation model, and other data is presented. This approach is applied to model Lake Turkana water levels from 1998 to 2009. Modelling results showed that the model can reasonably capture all the patterns and seasonal variations of the lake water level fluctuations. A composite lake level product of TOPEX/Poseidon, Jason-1, and ENVISAT satellite altimetry data is used for model calibration (1998-2000) and model validation (2001-2009). Validation results showed that model-based lake levels are in good agreement with observed satellite altimetry data. Compared to satellite altimetry data, the Pearson's correlation coefficient was found to be 0.81 during the validation period. The model efficiency estimated using NSCE is found to be 0.93, 0.55 and 0.66 for calibration, validation and combined periods, respectively. Further, the model-based estimates showed a root mean square error of 0.62 m and mean absolute error of 0.46 m with a positive mean bias error of 0.36 m for the validation period (2001-2009). These error estimates were found to be less than 15 % of the natural variability of the lake, thus giving high confidence on the modelled lake level estimates. The approach presented in this paper can be used to (a) simulate patterns of lake water level variations in data scarce regions, (b) operationally monitor lake water levels in ungauged basins, (c) derive historical lake level information using satellite rainfall and evapotranspiration data, and (d) augment the information provided by the

  14. Presentation and analysis of a model simulating the response of potash treatment of lakes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The potassium concentration in a lake may influence the caesium levels in lake biota. The biouptake and potential ecosystem effects of a caesium fall-out can be limited by addition of potassium, for example, by a potash treatment. This work presents for the first time a simple and practically useful model to facilitate the planning and to predict the outcome of potash treatments by simulating the processes that regulate the water chemical response of such a treatment. The model is a mixed model in the sense that it contains both statistical regressions and dynamic interactions within a lake ecosystem. This paper focuses on the dynamic processes and gives both calibrations and extensive validations of the model. A few examples on the practical use of the model are presented. The results indicate that the model, using only easily accessible input data, can, in fact, give good predictions on the increase and duration in potassium concentration following a potash treatment. (author)

  15. Estimation of Transport Trajectory and Residence Time in Large River–Lake Systems: Application to Poyang Lake (China) Using a Combined Model Approach

    OpenAIRE

    Yunliang Li; Jing Yao

    2015-01-01

    The biochemical processes and associated water quality in many lakes mainly depend on their transport behaviors. Most existing methodologies for investigating transport behaviors are based on physically based numerical models. The pollutant transport trajectory and residence time of Poyang Lake are thought to have important implications for the steadily deteriorating water quality and the associated rapid environmental changes during the flood period. This study used a hydrodynamic model (MIK...

  16. A heuristic simulation model of Lake Ontario circulation and mass balance transport

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKenna, J.E., Jr.; Chalupnicki, M.A.

    2011-01-01

    The redistribution of suspended organisms and materials by large-scale currents is part of natural ecological processes in large aquatic systems but can contribute to ecosystem disruption when exotic elements are introduced into the system. Toxic compounds and planktonic organisms spend various lengths of time in suspension before settling to the bottom or otherwise being removed. We constructed a simple physical simulation model, including the influence of major tributaries, to qualitatively examine circulation patterns in Lake Ontario. We used a simple mass balance approach to estimate the relative water input to and export from each of 10 depth regime-specific compartments (nearshore vs. offshore) comprising Lake Ontario. Despite its simplicity, our model produced circulation patterns similar to those reported by more complex studies in the literature. A three-gyre pattern, with the classic large counterclockwise central lake circulation, and a simpler two-gyre system were both observed. These qualitative simulations indicate little offshore transport along the south shore, except near the mouths of the Niagara River and Oswego River. Complex flow structure was evident, particularly near the Niagara River mouth and in offshore waters of the eastern basin. Average Lake Ontario residence time is 8 years, but the fastest model pathway indicated potential transport of plankton through the lake in as little as 60 days. This simulation illustrates potential invasion pathways and provides rough estimates of planktonic larval dispersal or chemical transport among nearshore and offshore areas of Lake Ontario. ?? 2011 Taylor & Francis.

  17. Reduction of Waste Water in Erhai Lake Based on MIKE21 Hydrodynamic and Water Quality Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Changjun Zhu

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available In order to study the ecological water environment in Erhai Lake, different monitoring sections were set to research the change of hydrodynamics and water quality. According to the measured data, MIKE21 Ecolab, the water quality simulation software developed by DHI, is applied to simulate the water quality in Erhai Lake. The hydrodynamics model coupled with water quality is established by MIKE21FM software to simulate the current situation of Erhai Lake. Then through the comparison with the monitoring data, the model parameters are calibrated and the simulation results are verified. Based on this, water quality is simulated by the two-dimensional hydrodynamics and water quality coupled model. The results indicate that the level of water quality in the north and south of lake is level III, while in the center of lake, the water quality is level II. Finally, the water environment capacity and total emmision reduction of pollutants are filtered to give some guidance for the water resources management and effective utilization in the Erhai Lake.

  18. The effect of lakes and reservoirs parameterization on global riverflow modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zajac, Zuzanna; Hirpa, Feyera A.; Revilla-Romero, Beatriz; Salamon, Peter; Burek, Peter; Beck, Hylke E.; Thielen-del Pozo, Jutta

    2016-04-01

    Lakes and man-made reservoirs are key components of terrestrial hydrological systems. They affect flow regimes by modifying the timing and magnitude of stream flowing in and out of the water bodies, making them important physical entities in flood modeling. In this study we used 463 large lakes and 667 large reservoirs obtained from global databases to investigate their effects on daily streamflow simulations of the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS). GloFAS is a grid-based ensemble flood forecasting system that produces daily forecasts with a forecast horizon of 30 days. We assessed the sensitivity of the hydrological model outputs to lake and reservoir parameters using Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA) methods. Evaluation results against observed streamflow show that incorporation of lakes resulted in improvement of model performance downstream for several catchments globally. While inclusion of reservoirs also resulted in improvement of model skill for majority of catchments, it poses more challenges due to the variability of individual reservoir's operating rules. The GSA test identified some lake and reservoir parameters as higher priority for improving the model performance. Focusing on the high priority parameters for model calibration will reduce the dimensionality without significant loss of model skill

  19. Model for trace metal exposure in filter-feeding flamingos at alkaline Rift Valley Lake, Kenya

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nelson, Y.M.; DiSante, C.J.; Lion, L.W. [Cornell Univ., Ithaca, NY (United States). School of Civil and Environmental Engineering; Thampy, R.J.; Raini, J.A. [Worldwide Fund for Nature, Nakuru (Kenya). Lake Nakuru Conservation and Development Project; Motelin, G.K. [Egerton Univ., Njoro (Kenya). Dept. of Animal Health

    1998-11-01

    Toxic trace metals have been implicated as a potential cause of recent flamingo kills at Lake Nakuru, Kenya. Chromium (Cr), copper (Cu), lead (Pb), and zinc (Zn) have accumulated in the lake sediments as a result of unregulated discharges and because this alkaline lake has no natural outlet. Lesser flamingos (Phoeniconaias minor) at Lake Nakuru feed predominantly on the cyanobacterium Spirulina platensis, and because of their filter-feeding mechanism, they are susceptible to exposure to particle-bound metals. Trace metal adsorption isotherms to lake sediments and S. platensis were obtained under simulated lake conditions, and a mathematical model was developed to predict metal exposure via filter feeding based on predicted trace metal phase distribution. Metal adsorption to suspended solids followed the trend Pb {much_gt} Zn > Cr > Cu, and isotherms were linear up to 60 {micro}g/L. Adsorption to S. platensis cells followed the trend Pb {much_gt} Zn > Cu > Cr and fit Langmuir isotherms for Cr, Cu and Zn and a linear isotherm for Pb. Predicted phase distributions indicated that Cr and Pb in Lake Nakuru are predominantly associated with suspended solids, whereas Cu and Zn are distributed more evenly between the dissolved phase and particulate phases of both S. platensis and suspended solids. Based on established flamingo feeding rates and particle size selection, predicted Cr and Pb exposure occurs predominantly through ingestion of suspended solids, whereas Cu and Zn exposure occurs through ingestion of both suspended solids and S. platensis. For the lake conditions at the time of sampling, predicted ingestion rates based on measured metal concentrations in lake suspended solids were 0.71, 6.2, 0.81, and 13 mg/kg-d for Cr, Cu, Pb, and Zn, respectively.

  20. Modeling Lake Turkana Hydrology: Evaluating the potential hydrological impact of Gibe III reservoir on the Lake Turkana water levels using multi-source satellite data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Velpuri, N.; Senay, G. B.

    2012-12-01

    Ethiopia is currently building the Gibe III hydroelectric dam on the Omo River, which supplies >80% of the inflows to Lake Turkana, Kenya. On completion, the Gibe III dam will be the tallest dam in Africa (height of 241 m) with a storage capacity of 14.5 billion m3. Arguably, this is one of the most controversial hydro-power projects in the region because the nature of interactions and potential impacts of the dam regulated flows on Lake Turkana are not well understood due to its remote location and unavailability of reliable in situ hydrological datasets. In this research, we used a calibrated multi-source satellite data-driven water balance model for Lake Turkana that takes into account 12 years (1998-2009) of satellite rainfall, model routed runoff, lake/reservoir evapotranspiration, direct rain on lakes/reservoirs and releases from the dam to compute lake water levels. The model was used to evaluate the impact of the Gibe III dam using three different simple but robust approaches - a historical approach; a rainfall based sampling approach; and a non-parametric bootstrap resampling approach to generate rainfall-runoff scenarios. Modelling results indicate that, on average, the reservoir would take up to 8-10 months to reach minimum operation level of 201 m (initial impoundment period). During this period, the dam would regulate the lake inflows up to 50% and as a result the lake level would drop up to 2 m. However, after the initial impoundment period, due to releases from the dam, the rate of lake inflows would be around 10 m3/s less when compared to the rate without Gibe III (650 m3/s). Due to this, the lake levels will decline on average 1.5 m (3 m). Over the entire modeling period including the initial period of impoundment, the average rate of lake inflows due to Gibe III dam was estimated to be 500 m3/s. Results indicated that dam would also moderate the seasonal fluctuations in the lake. Areas along the Lake Turkana shoreline that are vulnerable to

  1. Assessing Lake Trophic Status: A Proportional Odds Logistic Regression Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lake trophic state classifications are good predictors of ecosystem condition and are indicative of both ecosystem services (e.g., recreation and aesthetics), and disservices (e.g., harmful algal blooms). Methods for classifying trophic state are based off the foundational work o...

  2. Modeling lake trophic state: a random forest approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Productivity of lentic ecosystems has been well studied and it is widely accepted that as nutrient inputs increase, productivity increases and lakes transition from low trophic state (e.g. oligotrophic) to higher trophic states (e.g. eutrophic). These broad trophic state classi...

  3. Bifurcations of optimal vector fields in the shallow lake model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    T. Kiseleva; F.O.O. Wagener

    2010-01-01

    The solution structure of the set of optimal solutions of the shallow lake problem, a problem of optimal pollution management, is studied as we vary the values of the system parameters: the natural resilience, the relative importance of the resource for social welfare and the future discount rate. W

  4. Specific-activity and concentration model applied to cesium movement in an oligotrophic lake

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A linear systems-analysis model was derived to simulate the time-dependent dynamics of specific activity and concentration of radionuclides in aquatic systems. Transfer coefficients were determined for movement of 137Cs in the components of an oligotrophic lake. These coefficients were defined in terms of basic environmental and ecological data so that the model can be applied to a wide variety of sites. Simulations with a model that ignored sediment--water interactions predicted much higher 137Cs specific activities in the lake water and biota than did those with the complete model. Comparing 137Cs concentrations predicted by the model with concentrations reported for the biota of an experimentally contaminated oligotrophic lake indicated that the transfer coefficients derived for the biota are adequate

  5. Hydrological modelling of a closed lake (Laguna Mar Chiquita, Argentina) in the context of 20th century climatic changes

    OpenAIRE

    Troin, M.; Vallet-Coulomb, C.; Sylvestre, Florence; Piovano, E.

    2010-01-01

    A major hydroclimatic change occured in southeastern South America at the beginning of the 1970s. This change was recorded in Laguna Mar Chiquita (central Argentina), the terminal saline lake of a 127,000 km(2) catchment as a dramatic rise in lake level larger than any observed over the past 230 years. Based on available continuous lake level monitoring since 1967, our study aimed to develop a lake water balance model for investigating the link between climate and lake level variations. Since...

  6. Simulating Microwave Scattering for Wetland Vegetation in Poyang Lake, Southeast China, Using a Coherent Scattering Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jingjuan Liao

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available We developed a polarimetric coherent electromagnetic scattering model for Poyang Lake wetland vegetation. Realistic canopy structures including curved leaves and the lodging situation of the vegetation were taken into account, and the situation at the ground surface was established using an Advanced Integral Equation Model combined with Oh’s 2002 model. This new model can reasonably describe the coherence effect caused by the phase differences of the electromagnetic fields scattered from different particles by different scattering mechanisms. We obtained good agreement between the modeling results and C-band data from the Radarsat-2 satellite. A simulation of scattering from the vegetation in Poyang Lake showed that direct vegetation scattering and the single-ground-bounce mechanism are the dominant scattering mechanisms in the C-band and L-band, while the effects of the double-ground-bounce mechanism are very small. We note that the curvature of the leaves and the lodging characteristics of the vegetation cannot be ignored in the modeling process. Monitoring soil moisture in the Poyang Lake wetland with the C-band data was not feasible because of the density and depth of Poyang Lake vegetation. When the density of Poyang Lake Carex increases, the backscattering coefficient either decreases or remains stable.

  7. On the Changes of the Hydrological Balance of Caribbean Lakes - Modeling and Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Comarazamy, D.; Gonzalez, J.; Glenn, E.; Leon, Y.; Brito, D. R.

    2013-05-01

    The Enriquillo and Sumatra are saltwater lakes located in a rift valley that is a former marine strait created around 1 million years ago when the water level fell and the strait was filled in by river sediments, they are the largest lakes in the Dominican Republic and Haiti, respectively, with Lake Enriquillo being the lowest point in the Caribbean. The lakes, part of the Enriquillo closed water basin in the southwestern region of the island of La Hispaniola, have been experiencing dramatic changes in total lake-surface area coverage during the period 1980-2012. The size of the lakes was determined using remote sensing images (NASA-LANDSAT) analyzed with geographic information system (GIS) at different times during the available record. The size calculation for Lake Enriquillo shows a lake surface area of approximately 276 km2 in 1984 that gradually decreased to 172 km2 in 1996. After a period of fluctuations between 1996 and 2001, the surface area of the lake reaches its lowest point in 2004, at 165 km2. Beginning in 2004, the recent growth of the lake begins and reaches its 1984 size in 2006. Based on surface area measurement for December 2009, the lake size is 333 km2, 17% larger than in 1984 and almost double than in 2004. Sumatra sizes at both ends of the record are 115.96 km2 in 1984 and 134.26 km2 in 2011, an overall 15.8% increase in 27 years. Because the lakes are mostly latitudinally restricted by topography, most of the size changes occur on the southeastern side of Lake Enriquillo, with some growth on the western tip. Determining the causes of lake surface area changes is of extreme importance due to the environmental, social, and economic consequences. The goal of this study is to quantify the changing water balance in these lakes using satellite and ground observations and regional atmospheric modeling. Analyses of environmental variables in the region reflect a hydrological unbalance of the lakes due to changing regional hydro-climatic conditions

  8. Using a GIS transfer model to evaluate pollutant loads in the Lake Kinneret watershed, Israel.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Markel, D; Somma, F; Evans, B M

    2006-01-01

    Lake Kinneret (Sea of Galilee) is the only large surface water body in Israel, encompassing an area of 167 km2 and supplying some 30% of the country's fresh water. Pollution from anthropogenic sources and water abstraction for domestic and agricultural uses has long been threatening the water quality of the lake. Point-source pollution in the watershed has decreased drastically with the development of wastewater treatment. However, diffuse pollution from agricultural activities is still an unresolved issue. In this paper we present an application of AVGWLF (a GIS-based watershed load model) to the Lake Kinneret watershed. The model allows one to simulate daily stream flows and monthly sediment, nitrogen, and phosphorus loads discharged to the lake from the surrounding watershed. Results from simulations yield a satisfactory correspondence between simulated and measured daily water volume. Partition by source of total phosphorus delivered to the lake in the period of 2000-04 confirms the reduction in point source nutrient contribution due to improvement of wastewater treatment facilities in the area. Future management should focus on reduction of nutrients originating from septic systems (point sources) and pasture and cropland areas (diffuse sources). Results from simulations will enable watershed managers to prioritize effective management alternatives for protecting the water quality in the lake.

  9. Preliminary trophic network analysis of subalpine Lake Annecy (France using an Ecopath model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Gerdeaux

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available Lake Annecy is the second largest natural lake in France, with intensive commercial and recreational fisheries. However, there is limited knowledge of its trophic interaction. A preliminary Ecopath model was fitted to study the trophic interaction in the lake using the available data on most of the ecosystem compartments. Fourteen functional groups were used in the present analysis. Most of the consumers have ecotrophic efficiency from 0.3 to 0.6. The results show that flow from detritus is as important as flow from primary producers. The overall transfer efficiency of the system is 9.6. The primary production/respiration (Pp/R ratio, which is 3.253, shows that Lake Annecy's ecosystem is comparatively mature. The gross efficiency of fisheries is 0.001173. Catch trophic level and percentage of primary productivity required for catch show that fishery in Lake Annecy is stable. The values of ascendancy (31.2 and overhead (68.8 show the stability of the ecosystem. Mixed trophic analysis indicates that zoobenthos have a positive effect on most of the fish functional groups. This preliminary model can be helpful to pinpoint the gaps in the present knowledge about Lake Annecy.

  10. Challenges to the Future - Conservation of the Antarctic

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chown, S.L.; Lee, J.E.; Hughes, K.A.; Barnes, J.; Bergstrom, D.M.; Convey, P.; Cowan, D.A.; Crosbie, K.; Dyer, G.; Frenot, Y.; Grant, S.M.; Herr, D.; Kennicutt, M.C.; Lamers, M.A.J.; Murray, A.; Possingham, H.P.; Reid, K.; Riddle, M.J.; Ryan, P.G.; Sanson, L.; Shaw, J.D.; Sparrow, M.D.; Summerhayes, C.; Terauds, A.; Wall, D.H.

    2012-01-01

    The Antarctic Treaty System, acknowledged as a successful model of cooperative regulation of one of the globe's largest commons (1), is under substantial pressure. Concerns have been raised about increased stress on Antarctic systems from global environmental change and growing interest in the regio

  11. Presentation of a model simulating the response of lakes to fertilizations to reduce radiocesium levels in fish

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lake fertilization is a potential remedy for toxic contamination in lakes with low productivity, which are known to be sensitive to, e.g. radionuclides, metals and organic toxins. This study presents a model to plan the duration and predict the outcome of fertilization in lakes. Several methods of lake fertilization have been used in field experiments: (1) Lake and wetland liming using 'mixed' lime with added phosphorus; (2) treatment with commercial fertilizers; and (3) using effluents (containing phosphorus) from fish farms. This model is basically a dynamic model using differential equations to handle fluxes, amounts and concentrations. It also includes several empirical relationships, because the model is meant to be used in practice and the driving variables should be few and readily available, like catchment and lake morphometric data. The model is primarily intended to be used as a sub-model predicting realistic changes in phosphorus and potassium concentrations and in lake pH caused by these remedial measures within the framework of a more extensive lake model for radiocesium. It is, however, meant to be based on the fundamental processes regulating phosphorus fluxes in lakes, and could be of interest also in contexts other than radioecology. It is driven by the amount of fertilizer added to the lake and the month of treatment. The consequences for the spread, biological uptake and concentrations of radiocesium are also discussed and simulated. The phosphorus model is, and must be, easy to handle since all the input data should be derived either from maps or from regular monitoring programs. In this paper, the model is presented and calibrations are examined. The results of the calibrations indicate that the model should be useful for managers to optimise lake fertilization, e.g. in contexts of lake radioecology where the benefits and drawbacks of different remedial strategies are evaluated (multi-attribute analysis). (Copyright (c) 1998 Elsevier Science B

  12. Long-term trends of chemical and modelled photochemical parameters in four Alpine lakes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minella, Marco; Leoni, Barbara; Salmaso, Nico; Savoye, Liliane; Sommaruga, Ruben; Vione, Davide

    2016-01-15

    Based on long-term trends of water chemistry parameters of photochemical significance from four lakes located in the Alps (Iseo, Garda, Piburgersee, Geneva), we calculated the corresponding steady-state concentrations of photoinduced transient species with an ad-hoc photochemical model. Such transients were the hydroxyl ((•)OH) and carbonate (CO3(-•)) radicals, singlet oxygen ((1)O2), and the triplet states of chromophoric dissolved organic matter ((3)CDOM*). Among the investigated lakes, Lake Iseo, for example, showed a long-term near-stability in chemical parameters that resulted in a photochemical stability. By contrast, Piburgersee underwent important chemical modifications, but the interplay of compensation (parallel increase of both inorganic and organic carbon) and near-saturation effects (organic matter as main (•)OH source and sink) prevented the modelled photochemistry to undergo significant shifts over time. This result suggests the occurrence of a sort of "photochemical buffering" in some lake ecosystems, which would dampen modifications of the steady-state concentration of the photochemically-formed reactive transients, even in the case of significant changes in water chemistry. Finally, in lakes Garda and Geneva, long-term changes in water chemistry had an effect on photochemistry. While in Lake Garda the small increase in DOM was associated to a small increase in (1)O2 and (3)CDOM*, in Lake Geneva, the increases in pH and bicarbonate and the decrease in nitrite resulted in an (•)OH decrease. Overall, our results predict very different lake photochemistry patterns in relation to alterations in water chemistry parameters caused by climate change, such as changes in water alkalinity and dissolved organic carbon concentration.

  13. Numerical modelling of glacial lake outburst floods using physically based dam-breach models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Westoby, M. J.; Brasington, J.; Glasser, N. F.; Hambrey, M. J.; Reynolds, J. M.; Hassan, M. A. A. M.; Lowe, A.

    2015-03-01

    The instability of moraine-dammed proglacial lakes creates the potential for catastrophic glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) in high-mountain regions. In this research, we use a unique combination of numerical dam-breach and two-dimensional hydrodynamic modelling, employed within a generalised likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) framework, to quantify predictive uncertainty in model outputs associated with a reconstruction of the Dig Tsho failure in Nepal. Monte Carlo analysis was used to sample the model parameter space, and morphological descriptors of the moraine breach were used to evaluate model performance. Multiple breach scenarios were produced by differing parameter ensembles associated with a range of breach initiation mechanisms, including overtopping waves and mechanical failure of the dam face. The material roughness coefficient was found to exert a dominant influence over model performance. The downstream routing of scenario-specific breach hydrographs revealed significant differences in the timing and extent of inundation. A GLUE-based methodology for constructing probabilistic maps of inundation extent, flow depth, and hazard is presented and provides a useful tool for communicating uncertainty in GLOF hazard assessment.

  14. On the contribution of lakes in predicting near-surface temperature in a global weather forecasting model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Stockdale

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available The impact of lakes in numerical weather prediction is investigated in a set of global simulations performed with the ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System (IFS. A Fresh shallow-water Lake model (FLake is introduced allowing the coupling of both resolved and subgrid lakes (those that occupy less than 50% of a grid-box to the IFS atmospheric model. Global fields for the lake ancillary conditions (namely lake cover and lake depth, as well as initial conditions for the lake physical state, have been derived to initialise the forecast experiments. The procedure for initialising the lake variables is described and verified with particular emphasis on the importance of surface water temperature and freezing conditions. The response of short-range near surface temperature to the representation of lakes is examined in a set of forecast experiments covering one full year. It is shown that the impact of subgrid lakes is beneficial, reducing forecast error over the Northern territories of Canada and over Scandinavia particularly in spring and summer seasons. This is mainly attributed to the lake thermal effect, which delays the temperature response to seasonal radiation forcing.

  15. A dynamic model of the Cs-137 concentration in fish applied on seven different lake ecosystems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    IAEA has initiated a Co-ordinated Research Programme for validation of radioecological models (VAMP) using the Chernobyl data. One group studies the dynamic behaviour of radionuclides in fresh water. Within this group, scenarious are designed with the purpose to evaluate the concentration of Cs-137 in water, sediment and biota for seven specified lakes, covering a wide range of conditions. Studsvik EcoSafe participates in this study both as contributor of observation data as well as to model all the lakes. The emphasis for Studsvik is to develop a general model for all types of lakes and to study how that model preliminary results for water and fish are shown and discussed. (au)

  16. Estimation of the mean depth of boreal lakes for use in numerical weather prediction and climate modelling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Margarita Choulga

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Lakes influence the structure of the atmospheric boundary layer and, consequently, the local weather and local climate. Their influence should be taken into account in the numerical weather prediction (NWP and climate models through parameterisation. For parameterisation, data on lake characteristics external to the model are also needed. The most important parameter is the lake depth. Global database of lake depth GLDB (Global Lake Database is developed to parameterise lakes in NWP and climate modelling. The main purpose of the study is to upgrade GLDB by use of indirect estimates of the mean depth for lakes in boreal zone, depending on their geological origin. For this, Tectonic Plates Map, geological, geomorphologic maps and the map of Quaternary deposits were used. Data from maps were processed by an innovative algorithm, resulting in 141 geological regions where lakes were considered to be of kindred origin. To obtain a typical mean lake depth for each of the selected regions, statistics from GLDB were gained and analysed. The main result of the study is a new version of GLDB with estimations of the typical mean lake depth included. Potential users of the product are NWP and climate models.

  17. A general one-dimensional vertical ecosystem model of Lake Shira (Russia, Khakasia): description, parametrization and analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Prokopkin, I.; Mooij, W.M.; Janse, J.H.; Degermendzhy, A.G.

    2010-01-01

    A one-dimensional ecological model of the meromictic brackish Lake Shira (Russia, Khakasia) was developed. The model incorporates state-of-the-art knowledge about the functioning of the lake ecosystem using the most recent field observations and ideas from PCLake, a general ecosystem model of shallo

  18. Numerical modeling of the spring thermal bar and pollutant transport in a large lake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsydenov, Bair O.; Kay, Anthony; Starchenko, Alexander V.

    2016-08-01

    The spring riverine thermal bar phenomenon is investigated numerically on an example of Lake Baikal, and the spread of pollutants coming from the Selenga River is forecast using the 2.5 D non-hydrostatic model in the Boussinesq approximation. This hydrodynamic model takes into account the diurnal variability of the heat fluxes on the lake surface and the effects of wind and the Earth's rotation. The results of numerical modeling show that the variability of the total heat flux over 24 h plays a significant role in the variation of the thermal bar movement rate that contributes to the rapid mixing of impurities entering with river water.

  19. Challenges in understanding, modelling, and mitigating Lake Outburst Flood Hazard: experiences from Central Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mergili, Martin; Schneider, Demian; Andres, Norina; Worni, Raphael; Gruber, Fabian; Schneider, Jean F.

    2010-05-01

    Lake Outburst Floods can evolve from complex process chains like avalanches of rock or ice that produce flood waves in a lake which may overtop and eventually breach glacial, morainic, landslide, or artificial dams. Rising lake levels can lead to progressive incision and destabilization of a dam, to enhanced ground water flow (piping), or even to hydrostatic failure of ice dams which can cause sudden outflow of accumulated water. These events often have a highly destructive potential because a large amount of water is released in a short time, with a high capacity to erode loose debris, leading to a powerful debris flow with a long travel distance. The best-known example of a lake outburst flood is the Vajont event (Northern Italy, 1963), where a landslide rushed into an artificial lake which spilled over and caused a flood leading to almost 2000 fatalities. Hazards from the failure of landslide dams are often (not always) fairly manageable: most breaches occur in the first few days or weeks after the landslide event and the rapid construction of a spillway - though problematic - has solved some hazardous situations (e.g. in the case of Hattian landslide in 2005 in Pakistan). Older dams, like Usoi dam (Lake Sarez) in Tajikistan, are usually fairly stable, though landsildes into the lakes may create floodwaves overtopping and eventually weakening the dams. The analysis and the mitigation of glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) hazard remains a challenge. A number of GLOFs resulting in fatalities and severe damage have occurred during the previous decades, particularly in the Himalayas and in the mountains of Central Asia (Pamir, Tien Shan). The source area is usually far away from the area of impact and events occur at very long intervals or as singularities, so that the population at risk is usually not prepared. Even though potentially hazardous lakes can be identified relatively easily with remote sensing and field work, modeling and predicting of GLOFs (and also

  20. Modelling of subglacial hydrological development during a rapid lake drainage event, West Greenland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dow, C. F.; Kulessa, B.; Pimentel, S.; Tsai, V. C.; Doyle, S. H.; Rutt, I. C.; Jones, G. A.; Booth, A. D.; Hubbard, A.

    2012-12-01

    We present results from a local-scale model of subglacial hydrological development during a rapid lake drainage event on the Russell Glacier catchment in West Greenland. Previous models applied to rapid lake drainage events include a turbulent radial model (Tsai and Rice, 2010) and a 1-D flowband model (Pimentel and Flowers, 2011). Both models have limitations for application to lake drainage events. For the former, the radial extent of water flow is restricted to several ice thicknesses and no provision is made for the development of basal channels. For the latter model, the input of water directly from the lake to the bed without modulation by englacial flow, together with the fact that lateral basal flux is neglected, causes unrealistic subglacial pressure levels. To resolve these limitations, we link the two models together, thus allowing both local radial flux and downstream development of a coupled efficient and distributed drainage system. Our model is constrained by inputs from fieldwork completed in summer 2010 at a rapid lake drainage site in the land-terminating region of West Greenland. Passive seismic records indicate the region of basal water injection. Reflection seismic amplitude vs. angle (AVA) surveys allow analysis of the basal material characteristics. Lake drainage rate and differential GPS vertical and horizontal motion records are used as constraints for our model outputs. Our preliminary results suggest that large basal channels do not necessarily form during the rapid drainage of supraglacial lakes. A lack of an efficient drainage system has an impact on the local ice dynamics and the treatment of lake drainage events in larger-scale dynamic models. References: Pimentel, S and Flowers, G. (2011). A numerical study of hydrologically driven glacier dynamics and subglacial flooding, Proceedings of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Science, 467 (2126): doi: 10.1098/rspa.2010.0211. Tsai, V.C. and Rice, J.R. (2010). A

  1. Remote sensing models using Landsat satellite data to monitor algal blooms in Lake Champlain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trescott, A; Park, M-H

    2013-01-01

    Lake Champlain is significantly impaired by excess phosphorus loading, requiring frequent lake-wide monitoring for eutrophic conditions and algal blooms. Satellite remote sensing provides regular, synoptic coverage of algal production over large areas with better spatial and temporal resolution compared with in situ monitoring. This study developed two algal production models using Landsat Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM(+)) satellite imagery: a single band model and a band ratio model. The models predicted chlorophyll a concentrations to estimate algal cell densities throughout Lake Champlain. Each model was calibrated with in situ data compiled from summer 2006 (July 24 to September 10), and then validated with data for individual days in August 2007 and 2008. Validation results for the final single band and band ratio models produced Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) coefficients of 0.65 and 0.66, respectively, confirming satisfactory model performance for both models. Because these models have been validated over multiple days and years, they can be applied for continuous monitoring of the lake.

  2. Nutrient inputs to the Laurentian Great Lakes by source and watershed estimated using SPARROW watershed models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robertson, Dale M.; Saad, David A.

    2011-01-01

    Nutrient input to the Laurentian Great Lakes continues to cause problems with eutrophication. To reduce the extent and severity of these problems, target nutrient loads were established and Total Maximum Daily Loads are being developed for many tributaries. Without detailed loading information it is difficult to determine if the targets are being met and how to prioritize rehabilitation efforts. To help address these issues, SPAtially Referenced Regressions On Watershed attributes (SPARROW) models were developed for estimating loads and sources of phosphorus (P) and nitrogen (N) from the United States (U.S.) portion of the Great Lakes, Upper Mississippi, Ohio, and Red River Basins. Results indicated that recent U.S. loadings to Lakes Michigan and Ontario are similar to those in the 1980s, whereas loadings to Lakes Superior, Huron, and Erie decreased. Highest loads were from tributaries with the largest watersheds, whereas highest yields were from areas with intense agriculture and large point sources of nutrients. Tributaries were ranked based on their relative loads and yields to each lake. Input from agricultural areas was a significant source of nutrients, contributing ∼33-44% of the P and ∼33-58% of the N, except for areas around Superior with little agriculture. Point sources were also significant, contributing ∼14-44% of the P and 13-34% of the N. Watersheds around Lake Erie contributed nutrients at the highest rate (similar to intensively farmed areas in the Midwest) because they have the largest nutrient inputs and highest delivery ratio.

  3. Was Lates Late? A Null Model for the Nile Perch Boom in Lake Victoria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Downing, Andrea S.; Galic, Nika; Goudswaard, Kees P. C.; van Nes, Egbert H.; Scheffer, Marten; Witte, Frans; Mooij, Wolf M.

    2013-01-01

    Nile perch (Lates niloticus) suddenly invaded Lake Victoria between 1979 and 1987, 25 years after its introduction in the Ugandan side of the lake. Nile perch then replaced the native fish diversity and irreversibly altered the ecosystem and its role to lakeshore societies: it is now a prised export product that supports millions of livelihoods. The delay in the Nile perch boom led to a hunt for triggers of the sudden boom and generated several hypotheses regarding its growth at low abundances – all hypotheses having important implications for the management of Nile perch stocks. We use logistic growth as a parsimonious null model to predict when the Nile perch invasion should have been expected, given its growth rate, initial stock size and introduction year. We find the first exponential growth phase can explain the timing of the perch boom at the scale of Lake Victoria, suggesting that complex mechanisms are not necessary to explain the Nile perch invasion or its timing. However, the boom started in Kenya before Uganda, indicating perhaps that Allee effects act at smaller scales than that of the whole Lake. The Nile perch invasion of other lakes indicates that habitat differences may also have an effect on invasion success. Our results suggest there is probably no single management strategy applicable to the whole lake that would lead to both efficient and sustainable exploitation of its resources. PMID:24204684

  4. Measured and modelled trends in European mountain lakes: results of fifteen years of cooperative studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michela ROGORA

    2004-02-01

    Full Text Available Papers included in this Special Issue of the Journal of Limnology present results of long-term ecological research on mountain lakes throughout Europe. Most of these studies were performed over the last 15 years in the framework of some EU-funded projects, namely AL:PE 1 and 2, MOLAR and EMERGE. These projects together considered a high number of remote lakes in different areas or lake districts in Europe. Central to the projects was the idea that mountain lakes, while subject to the same chemical and biological processes controlling lowland lakes, are more sensitive to any input from their surroundings and can be used as earlywarning indicators of atmospheric pollution and climate change. A first section of this special issue deal with the results of long-term monitoring programmes at selected key-sites. A second section focuse on site-specific and regional applications of an acidification model designed to reconstruct and predict long-term changes in the chemistry of mountain lakes.

  5. A simple lumped model to convert air temperature into surface water temperature in lakes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Piccolroaz

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Water temperature in lakes is governed by a complex heat budget, where the single fluxes are hardly assessable over long time periods in the absence of high accuracy data. In order to address this issue, we developed Air2Water, a simple physically-based model to relate the temperature of the lake superficial layer (epilimnion to air temperature only. The model accounts for the overall heat exchanges with the atmosphere and the deeper layer of the lake (hypolimnion by means of simplified relationships, which contain a few parameters (from four to eight in the different proposed formulations to be calibrated with the combined use of air and water temperature measurements. In particular, the calibration of the parameters in a given case study allows one to estimate, in a synthetic way, the influence of the main processes controlling the lake thermal dynamics, and to recognize the atmospheric temperature as the main factor driving the evolution of the system. In fact, the air temperature variation implicitly contains proper information about the variation of other major processes, and hence in our approach is considered as the only input variable of the model. Furthermore, the model can be easily used to predict the response of a lake to climate change, since projected air temperatures are usually available by large-scale global circulation models. In this paper, the model is applied to Lake Superior (USA – Canada considering a 27-yr record of measurements, among which 18 yr used for calibration and the remaining 9 yr for model validation. The results show a remarkable agreement with measurements, over the entire data period. The use of air temperature reconstructed by satellite imagery is also discussed.

  6. Modelling reversibility of central European mountain lakes from acidification: Part II – the Tatra Mountains

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Kopácek

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available A dynamic, process-based model of surface water acidification, MAGIC7, has been applied to four representative alpine lakes in the Tatra Mountains (Slovakia and Poland. The model was calibrated for a set of 12 to 22-year experimental records of lake water composition. Surface water and soil chemistry were reconstructed from 1860 to 2002 and forecast to 2050 based on the reduction in sulphur and nitrogen emissions presupposed by the Gothenburg Protocol. Relatively small changes in the soil C:N ratios were not sufficient to simulate observed changes in NO3‾ concentrations, so an alternative empirical approach of changes in terrestrial N uptake was applied. Measured sulphate sorption isotherms did not allow calibration of the pattern of sulphate response in the lakes, indicating that other mechanisms of S release were also important. The lake water chemistry exhibited significant changes during both the acidification advance (1860 to 1980s and retreat (1980s to 2010. An increase in lake water concentrations of strong acid anions (SAA; 104–149 μeq l–1 was balanced by a decline in HCO3‾ (13–62 μeq l–1 and an increase in base cations (BC; 42–72 μeq l–1, H+ (0-18 μeq l–1, and Alin+ (0–26 μeq l–1. The carbonate buffering system was depleted in three lakes. In contrast, lake water concentrations of SAA, BC, H+, and Alin+ decreased by 57–82, 28–42, 0–11, and 0–22 μeq l–1, respectively, the carbonate buffering system was re-established, and HCO3‾ increased by 1–21 μeq l–1 during the chemical reversal from atmospheric acidification (by 2000. The MAGIC7 model forecasts a slight continuation in this reversal for the next decade and new steady-state conditions thereafter. Gran alkalinity should come back to 1950s levels (0–71 μeq l–1 in all lakes after 2010. Partial recovery of the soil pool of exchangeable base cations can be expected in one catchment, while only conservation of the current conditions is

  7. First geomagnetic measurements in the Antarctic region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raspopov, O. M.; Demina, I. M.; Meshcheryakov, V. V.

    2014-05-01

    Based on data from literature and archival sources, we have further processed and analyzed the results of geomagnetic measurements made during the 1772-1775 Second World Expedition by James Cook and the 1819-1821 overseas Antarctic Expedition by Russian mariners Bellingshausen and Lazarev. Comparison with the GUFM historical model showed that there are systematic differences in the spatial structure of both the declination and its secular variation. The results obtained can serve as a basis for the construction of regional models of the geomagnetic field for the Antarctic region.

  8. Lake Diefenbaker: Water Quality Assessment and Modeling for Management under Environmental Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sereda, J.; Wheater, H. S.; Hudson, J.; Doig, L.; Liber, K.; Jones, P.; Giesy, J.; Bharadwaj, L.

    2011-12-01

    and temporally). Concentrations of nutrients are heterogeneous throughout the lake. Preliminary results indicate that the degree and type of nutrient limitation, along with the cycling of phosphorus (uptake and regeneration) by plankton assemblages varies spatially and temporally. This information will be coupled with an understanding of the physical characteristics of the lake (i.e., mixing patterns) to explain the timing and distribution of algal blooms. A model will be developed to provide a platform for water and nutrient simulations to explore lake response to scenarios of climate and land use change, and the potential effects of local and regional management interventions. The research includes a community based participatory research program, which has involved key stakeholders in research definition and experimental design and ongoing discussion of research progress, and will include participation in management recommendations.

  9. Assimilation of satellite images into a sediment transport model of Lake Michigan.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stroud, J.; Lesht, B.; Beletsky, D.; Stein, M.; Univ. of Pennsylvania; NOAA; Univ. of Michigan; Univ. of Chicago

    2009-01-01

    In this paper we develop and examine several schemes for combining daily images obtained from the Sea-viewing Wide Field Spectrometer (SeaWiFS) with a two-dimensional sediment transport model of Lake Michigan. We consider two data assimilation methods, direct insertion and a kriging-based approach, and perform a forecasting study focused on a 2-month period in spring 1998 when a large storm caused substantial amounts of sediment resuspension and horizontal sediment transport in the lake. By beginning with the simplest possible forecast method and sequentially adding complexity we are able to assess the improvements offered by combining the satellite data with the numerical model. In our application, we find that data assimilation schemes that include both the data and the lake dynamics improve forecast root mean square error by 40% over purely model-based approaches and by 20% over purely data-based approaches.

  10. Microwave emissivity of freshwater ice, Part II: Modelling the Great Bear and Great Slave Lakes

    CERN Document Server

    Mills, Peter

    2012-01-01

    Lake ice within three Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer on EOS (AMSR-E) pixels over the Great Bear and Great Slave Lakes have been simulated with the Canadian Lake Ice Model (CLIMo). The resulting thicknesses and temperatures were fed to a radiative transfer-based ice emissivity model and compared to the satellite measurements at three frequencies---6.925 GHz, 10.65 GHz and 18.7 GHz. Excluding the melt season, the model was found to have strong predictive power, returning a correlation of 0.926 and a residual of 0.78 Kelvin at 18 GHz, vertical polarization. Discrepencies at melt season are thought to be caused by the presence of dirt in the snow cover which makes the microwave signature more like soil rather than ice. Except at 18 GHz, all results showed significant bias compared to measured values. Further work needs to be done to determine the source of this bias.

  11. A new biogeochemical model to simulate regional scale carbon emission from lakes, ponds and wetlands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bayer, Tina; Brakebusch, Matthias; Gustafsson, Erik; Beer, Christian

    2016-04-01

    Small aquatic systems are receiving increasing attention for their role in global carbon cycling. For instance, lakes and ponds in permafrost are net emitters of carbon to the atmosphere, and their capacity to process and emit carbon is significant on a landscape scale, with a global flux of 8-103 Tg methane per year which amounts to 5%-30% of all natural methane emissions (Bastviken et al 2011). However, due to the spatial and temporal highly localised character of freshwater methane emissions, fluxes remain poorly qualified and are difficult to upscale based on field data alone. While many models exist to model carbon cycling in individual lakes and ponds, we perceived a lack of models that can work on a larger scale, over a range of latitudes, and simulate regional carbon emission from a large number of lakes, ponds and wetlands. Therefore our objective was to develop a model that can simulate carbon dioxide and methane emission from freshwaters on a regional scale. Our resulting model provides an additional tool to assess current aquatic carbon emissions as well as project future responses to changes in climatic drivers. To this effect, we have combined an existing large-scale hydrological model (the Variable Infiltration Capacity Macroscale Hydrologic Model (VIC), Liang & Lettenmaier 1994), an aquatic biogeochemical model (BALTSEM, Savchuk et al., 2012; Gustafsson et al., 2014) and developed a new methane module for lakes. The resulting new process-based biogeochemical model is designed to model aquatic carbon emission on a regional scale, and to perform well in high-latitude environments. Our model includes carbon, oxygen and nutrient cycling in lake water and sediments, primary production and methanogenesis. Results of calibration and validation of the model in two catchments (Torne-Kalix in Northern Sweden and of a large arctic river catchment) will be presented.

  12. GIS-modeling of an ice-dammed lake in the Lake Onega depression ca 14500-12500 Yrs BP

    Science.gov (United States)

    Subetto, Dmitry; Zobkov, Mikhail; Potakhin, Maksim; Tarasov, Aleksey

    2016-04-01

    Palaeogeographical reconstructions of the Onego ice-dammed lake development ca 14500-125000 yrs BP were based on the GIS approach. The palaeo-water-level surfaces were interpolated using a point-kriging approach. 14500-14000 Yrs BP: An ice-dammed lake occupied the southern part of the Lake Onega depression. The level of this lake was at 130-120 m a.s.l. and was controlled by a threshold of the water divide between the River Oshta and River Oyat', with discharge southwestward into the Oyat' basin. The surface area of the ice-dammed lake was 3500 sq.km. 14000-13300 Yrs BP: When the ice melted away from the mouth of the River Svir, the lake level dropped to 85-80 m a.s.l. and runoff was directed into the Lake Ladoga - easternmost part of The Baltic Ice Lake at that time. 13300-12500 Yrs BP: As the glacier retreated from the Lake Onega depression, the ice-dammed lake was occupied it and reached the maximum sizes (the surface area was 33000 sq.km). The new threshold in the northern part was opened and runoff was directed into the White Sea basin. During the conference new digital paleogeographical maps of the Onego ice-dammed lake will be presented. The study has been financially supported by the Russian Science Foundation (#14-17-00766).

  13. THE LAKE MICHIGAN MASS BALANCE PROJECT: QUALITY ASSURANCE PLAN FOR MATHEMATICAL MODELLING

    Science.gov (United States)

    This report documents the quality assurance process for the development and application of the Lake Michigan Mass Balance Models. The scope includes the overall modeling framework as well as the specific submodels that are linked to form a comprehensive synthesis of physical, che...

  14. Estimation of Water Quality Parameters in Lake Erie from MERIS Using Linear Mixed Effect Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kiana Zolfaghari

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Linear Mixed Effect (LME models are applied to the CoastColour atmospherically-corrected Medium Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MERIS reflectance, L2R full resolution product, to derive chlorophyll-a (chl-a concentration and Secchi disk depth (SDD in Lake Erie, which is considered as a Case II water (i.e., turbid and productive. A LME model considers the correlation that exists in the field measurements which have been performed repeatedly in space and time. In this study, models are developed based on the relation between the logarithmic scale of the water quality parameters and band ratios: B07:665 nm to B09:708.75 nm for log10chl-a and B06:620 nm to B04:510 nm for log10SDD. Cross validation is performed on the models. The results show good performance of the models, with Root Mean Square Errors (RMSE and Mean Bias Errors (MBE of 0.31 and 0.018 for log10chl-a, and 0.19 and 0.006 for log10SDD, respectively. The models are then applied to a time series of MERIS images acquired over Lake Erie from 2004–2012 to investigate the spatial and temporal variations of the water quality parameters. Produced maps reveal distinct monthly patterns for different regions of Lake Erie that are in agreement with known biogeochemical properties of the lake. The Detroit River and Maumee River carry sediments and nutrients to the shallow western basin. Hence, the shallow western basin of Lake Erie experiences the most intense algal blooms and the highest turbidity compared to the other sections of the lake. Maumee Bay, Sandusky Bay, Rondeau Bay and Long Point Bay are estimated to have prolonged intense algal bloom.

  15. Waterbird predation on fish in western Lake Erie: a bioenergetics model application

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madenjian, Charles P.; Gabrey, Steven W.

    1995-01-01

    To better understand the role of piscivorous waterbirds in the food web of western Lake Erie, we applied a bioenergetics model to determine their total fish consumption, The important nesting species included the Herring Gull (Larus argentatus), Ring-billed Gull (L. delawarensis), Double-crested Cormorant (Phalacrocorax auritus), Great Blue Heron (Ardea herodias), Black-crowned Night-Heron (Nycticorax nycticorax), and Great Egret (Casmerodius albus). The impact of migrant waterbirds, including the Red-breasted Merganser (Mergus serrator), on western Lake Erie fish biomass was also considered in the analysis. According to the modeling results, during the early 1990s, piscivorous waterbirds consumed 13,368 tonnes of fish from western Lake Erie each year. This tonnage was equivalent to 15.2% of the prey fish biomass needed to support the walleye (Stizostedion vitreum) population in western Lake Erie during a single growing season. The model application was useful in quantifying energy flow between birds and fish in a large lake ecosystem.

  16. Stable isotopes and Digital Elevation Models to study nutrient inputs in high-Arctic lakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calizza, Edoardo; Rossi, David; Costantini, Maria Letizia; Careddu, Giulio; Rossi, Loreto

    2016-04-01

    Ice cover, run-off from the watershed, aquatic and terrestrial primary productivity, guano deposition from birds are key factors controlling nutrient and organic matter inputs in high-Arctic lakes. All these factors are expected to be significantly affected by climate change. Quantifying these controls is a key baseline step to understand what combination of factors subtends the biological productivity in Arctic lakes and will drive their ecological response to environmental change. Basing on Digital Elevation Models, drainage maps, and C and N elemental content and stable isotope analysis in sediments, aquatic vegetation and a dominant macroinvertebrate species (Lepidurus arcticus Pallas 1973) belonging to Tvillingvatnet, Storvatnet and Kolhamna, three lakes located in North Spitsbergen (Svalbard), we propose an integrated approach for the analysis of (i) nutrient and organic matter inputs in lakes; (ii) the role of catchment hydro-geomorphology in determining inter-lake differences in the isotopic composition of sediments; (iii) effects of diverse nutrient inputs on the isotopic niche of Lepidurus arcticus. Given its high run-off and large catchment, organic deposits in Tvillingvatnet where dominated by terrestrial inputs, whereas inputs were mainly of aquatic origin in Storvatnet, a lowland lake with low potential run-off. In Kolhamna, organic deposits seem to be dominated by inputs from birds, which actually colonise the area. Isotopic signatures were similar between samples within each lake, representing precise tracers for studies on the effect of climate change on biogeochemical cycles in lakes. The isotopic niche of L. aricticus reflected differences in sediments between lakes, suggesting a bottom-up effect of hydro-geomorphology characterizing each lake on nutrients assimilated by this species. The presented approach proven to be an effective research pathway for the identification of factors subtending to nutrient and organic matter inputs and transfer

  17. Cauchy-Matern Model of Sea Surface Wind Speed at the Lake Worth, Florida

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ming Li

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available We study the Cauchy-Matern (CM process with long-range dependence (LRD. The closed form of its power spectrum density (PSD function is given. We apply it to model the autocovariance function (ACF and the PSD of the sea surface wind speed (wind speed for short observed in the Lake Worth, Florida, over the 1984–2006 period. The present results exhibit that the wind speed at the Lake Worth over 1984–2006 is of LRD. The present results exhibit that the CM process may yet be a novel model to fit the wind speed there.

  18. Simulation of Lake Victoria Circulation Patterns Using the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nyamweya, Chrispine; Desjardins, Christopher; Sigurdsson, Sven; Tomasson, Tumi; Taabu-Munyaho, Anthony; Sitoki, Lewis; Stefansson, Gunnar

    2016-01-01

    Lake Victoria provides important ecosystem services including transport, water for domestic and industrial uses and fisheries to about 33 million inhabitants in three East African countries. The lake plays an important role in modulating regional climate. Its thermodynamics and hydrodynamics are also influenced by prevailing climatic and weather conditions on diel, seasonal and annual scales. However, information on water temperature and circulation in the lake is limited in space and time. We use a Regional Oceanographic Model System (ROMS) to simulate these processes from 1st January 2000 to 31st December 2014. The model is based on real bathymetry, river runoff and atmospheric forcing data using the bulk flux algorithm. Simulations show that the water column exhibits annual cycles of thermo-stratification (September-May) and mixing (June-August). Surface water currents take different patterns ranging from a lake-wide northward flow to gyres that vary in size and number. An under flow exists that leads to the formation of upwelling and downwelling regions. Current velocities are highest at the center of the lake and on the western inshore waters indicating enhanced water circulation in those areas. However, there is little exchange of water between the major gulfs (especially Nyanza) and the open lake, a factor that could be responsible for the different water quality reported in those regions. Findings of the present study enhance understanding of the physical processes (temperature and currents) that have an effect on diel, seasonal, and annual variations in stratification, vertical mixing, inshore-offshore exchanges and fluxes of nutrients that ultimately influence the biotic distribution and trophic structure. For instance information on areas/timing of upwelling and vertical mixing obtained from this study will help predict locations/seasons of high primary production and ultimately fisheries productivity in Lake Victoria.

  19. Simulation of Lake Victoria Circulation Patterns Using the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chrispine Nyamweya

    Full Text Available Lake Victoria provides important ecosystem services including transport, water for domestic and industrial uses and fisheries to about 33 million inhabitants in three East African countries. The lake plays an important role in modulating regional climate. Its thermodynamics and hydrodynamics are also influenced by prevailing climatic and weather conditions on diel, seasonal and annual scales. However, information on water temperature and circulation in the lake is limited in space and time. We use a Regional Oceanographic Model System (ROMS to simulate these processes from 1st January 2000 to 31st December 2014. The model is based on real bathymetry, river runoff and atmospheric forcing data using the bulk flux algorithm. Simulations show that the water column exhibits annual cycles of thermo-stratification (September-May and mixing (June-August. Surface water currents take different patterns ranging from a lake-wide northward flow to gyres that vary in size and number. An under flow exists that leads to the formation of upwelling and downwelling regions. Current velocities are highest at the center of the lake and on the western inshore waters indicating enhanced water circulation in those areas. However, there is little exchange of water between the major gulfs (especially Nyanza and the open lake, a factor that could be responsible for the different water quality reported in those regions. Findings of the present study enhance understanding of the physical processes (temperature and currents that have an effect on diel, seasonal, and annual variations in stratification, vertical mixing, inshore-offshore exchanges and fluxes of nutrients that ultimately influence the biotic distribution and trophic structure. For instance information on areas/timing of upwelling and vertical mixing obtained from this study will help predict locations/seasons of high primary production and ultimately fisheries productivity in Lake Victoria.

  20. Simulation of Lake Victoria Circulation Patterns Using the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sigurdsson, Sven; Tomasson, Tumi; Taabu-Munyaho, Anthony; Sitoki, Lewis; Stefansson, Gunnar

    2016-01-01

    Lake Victoria provides important ecosystem services including transport, water for domestic and industrial uses and fisheries to about 33 million inhabitants in three East African countries. The lake plays an important role in modulating regional climate. Its thermodynamics and hydrodynamics are also influenced by prevailing climatic and weather conditions on diel, seasonal and annual scales. However, information on water temperature and circulation in the lake is limited in space and time. We use a Regional Oceanographic Model System (ROMS) to simulate these processes from 1st January 2000 to 31st December 2014. The model is based on real bathymetry, river runoff and atmospheric forcing data using the bulk flux algorithm. Simulations show that the water column exhibits annual cycles of thermo-stratification (September–May) and mixing (June–August). Surface water currents take different patterns ranging from a lake-wide northward flow to gyres that vary in size and number. An under flow exists that leads to the formation of upwelling and downwelling regions. Current velocities are highest at the center of the lake and on the western inshore waters indicating enhanced water circulation in those areas. However, there is little exchange of water between the major gulfs (especially Nyanza) and the open lake, a factor that could be responsible for the different water quality reported in those regions. Findings of the present study enhance understanding of the physical processes (temperature and currents) that have an effect on diel, seasonal, and annual variations in stratification, vertical mixing, inshore—offshore exchanges and fluxes of nutrients that ultimately influence the biotic distribution and trophic structure. For instance information on areas/timing of upwelling and vertical mixing obtained from this study will help predict locations/seasons of high primary production and ultimately fisheries productivity in Lake Victoria. PMID:27030983

  1. HYDROLOGIC MODELLING OF KATSINA-ALA RIVER BASIN: AN EMERGING SCENARIO FROM LAKE NYOS THREAT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. O. Akinyede

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Understanding the hydrologic system surrounding crater lakes is of great importance for prevention of flooding damages, conservation of ecological environment, and assessment of socio-economic impact of dam failure on the civilians in the downstream regions. Lake Nyos is a crater lake formed by volcanic activities at the Oku volcanic field on the Cameroon Volcanic Line. It is a freshwater lake with a maximum depth of 200 meter. In 1986, a limnic eruption at the lake emitted 1.6 million tonnes of carbon dioxide from the bottom of saturated water into the air and suffocated up to 1,800 people and 3,500 livestock at nearby villages. The lake waters are held in place by a natural dam composed of loosely consolidated volcanic rock, which is now at the verge of collapse due to accelerated erosion. This study was carried out to determine the flood risks and vulnerability of population and infrastructure along Katsina-Ala drainage basins. The project integrated both satellite images and field datasets into a hydrologic model for Katsina-Ala River Basin and its vicinity including the Lake Nyos. ArcHydro was used to construct a hydrologic database as 'data models' and MIKE SHE was employed to conduct hydrologic simulations. Vulnerable infrastructures, population and socio-economic activities were identified to assist the Federal and State governments in disaster mitigation and management plans. The result of the project provides comprehensive knowledge of hydrologic system of Katsina-Ala drainage basin to mitigate potential future disasters from a potential dam failure and manage water resources against such disasters.

  2. A biogeochemical model of Lake Pusiano (North Italy and its use in the predictability of phytoplankton blooms: first preliminary results

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alessandro OGGIONI

    2006-02-01

    Full Text Available This study reports the first preliminary results of the DYRESM-CAEDYM model application to a mid size sub-alpine lake (Lake Pusiano North Italy. The in-lake modelling is a part of a more general project called Pusiano Integrated Lake/Catchment project (PILE whose final goal is to understand the hydrological and trophic relationship between lake and catchment, supporting the restoration plan of the lake through field data analysis and numerical models. DYRESM is a 1D-3D hydrodynamics model for predicting the vertical profile of temperature, salinity and density. CAEDYM is multi-component ecological model, used here as a phytoplankton-zooplankton processes based model, which includes algorithms to simulate the nutrient cycles within the water column as well as the air-water gas exchanges and the water-sediments fluxes. The first results of the hydrodynamics simulations underline the capability of the model to accurately simulate the surface temperature seasonal trend and the thermal gradient whereas, during summer stratification, the model underestimates the bottom temperature of around 2 °C. The ecological model describes the epilimnetic reactive phosphorus (PO4 depletion (due to the phytoplankton uptake and the increase in PO4 concentrations in the deepest layers of the lake (due to the mineralization processes and the sediments release. In terms of phytoplankton dynamics the model accounts for the Planktothrix rubescens dominance during the whole season, whereas it seems to underestimate the peak in primary production related to both the simulated algal groups (P. rubescens and the rest of the other species aggregated in a single class. The future aims of the project are to complete the model parameterization and to connect the in-lake and the catchment modelling in order to gain an integrated view of the lake-catchment ecosystem as well as to develop a three dimensional model of the lake.

  3. New 3D bathymetry and sediment distribution in Lake Vostok: Implication for pre-glacial origin and numerical modeling of the internal processes within the lake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Filina, Irina Y.; Blankenship, Donald D.; Thoma, Malte; Lukin, Valery V.; Masolov, Valery N.; Sen, Mrinal K.

    2008-11-01

    A new distribution of water and unconsolidated sediments in subglacial Lake Vostok, East Antarctica was developed via inversion of airborne gravity data constrained by 60 seismic soundings. A model was developed for host rock with a density of 2550 kg/m 3 that was inferred from prior 2D modeling. Our 3D bathymetry model of Lake Vostok corresponds better with seismic data (RMS of 125 m) than two previous models based on the same gravity dataset. The good match in both water and sediment thicknesses between the gravity model and seismic measurements confirms two major facts about Lake Vostok: (1) the lake is hosted by sedimentary rocks, and (2) the bottom of the lake is covered with a layer of unconsolidated sediments that does not exceed 300 m in the southern basin and thickens almost to 400 m in the northern basin. Our new bathymetry model suggests much shallower water thicknesses (up to twice the previous estimates) in the middle and northern parts of the lake, while the water layer is thicker in the southern basin. Numerical modeling of the internal processes in the lake reveals the relevance of our new bathymetry model to the basal mass balance. A significant decrease in transport is observed in the shallower northern basin, as well as a decrease of 33% in the turbulent kinetic energy. However, only minor differences were observed in the distribution of the calculated freezing and melting zones compared to previous models. Estimates for the sedimentation rates for six possible mechanisms were made. Possible sedimentation mechanisms are: (1) fluvial and periglacial, i.e. those that are active prior to the establishment of a large subglacial lake; (2) deposition due to overlying ice sheet, including melting out of the ice, as well as bulldozering by the overriding ice; and (3) suspended sediments from subglacial water flow including those deposited by periodical subglacial outbursts. The estimates for these mechanisms show that unconsolidated sediments of the

  4. Lidar and CTIPe model studies of the fast amplitude growth with altitude of the diurnal temperature "tides" in the Antarctic winter lower thermosphere and dependence on geomagnetic activity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fong, Weichun; Chu, Xinzhao; Lu, Xian; Chen, Cao; Fuller-Rowell, Timothy J.; Codrescu, Mihail; Richmond, Arthur D.

    2015-02-01

    Four years of lidar observations at McMurdo reveal that the fast amplitude growth with altitude of diurnal temperature tides from 100 to 110 km during Antarctic winters, exceeding that of the freely propagating tides from the lower atmosphere, increases in strength with the Kp magnetic activity index. Simulations with the Coupled Thermosphere Ionosphere Plasmasphere Electrodynamics (CTIPe) model reproduce the lidar observations and exhibit concentric ring structures of diurnal amplitudes encircling the south geomagnetic pole and overlapping the auroral zone. These findings point to a magnetospheric source origin. Mechanistic studies using CTIPe show that the adiabatic cooling/heating associated with Hall ion drag is the dominant source of this feature, while Joule heating is a minor contributor due to the counteraction by Joule-heating-induced adiabatic cooling. The sum of total dynamical effects and Joule heating explains ~80% of the diurnal amplitudes. Auroral particle heating, lower atmosphere tides, and direct solar heating have minor contributions.

  5. Sugars in Antarctic aerosol

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barbaro, Elena; Kirchgeorg, Torben; Zangrando, Roberta; Vecchiato, Marco; Piazza, Rossano; Barbante, Carlo; Gambaro, Andrea

    2015-10-01

    The processes and transformations occurring in the Antarctic aerosol during atmospheric transport were described using selected sugars as source tracers. Monosaccharides (arabinose, fructose, galactose, glucose, mannose, ribose, xylose), disaccharides (sucrose, lactose, maltose, lactulose), alcohol-sugars (erythritol, mannitol, ribitol, sorbitol, xylitol, maltitol, galactitol) and anhydrosugars (levoglucosan, mannosan and galactosan) were measured in the Antarctic aerosol collected during four different sampling campaigns. For quantification, a sensitive high-pressure anion exchange chromatography was coupled with a single quadrupole mass spectrometer. The method was validated, showing good accuracy and low method quantification limits. This study describes the first determination of sugars in the Antarctic aerosol. The total mean concentration of sugars in the aerosol collected at the "Mario Zucchelli" coastal station was 140 pg m-3; as for the aerosol collected over the Antarctic plateau during two consecutive sampling campaigns, the concentration amounted to 440 and 438 pg m-3. The study of particle-size distribution allowed us to identify the natural emission from spores or from sea-spray as the main sources of sugars in the coastal area. The enrichment of sugars in the fine fraction of the aerosol collected on the Antarctic plateau is due to the degradation of particles during long-range atmospheric transport. The composition of sugars in the coarse fraction was also investigated in the aerosol collected during the oceanographic cruise.

  6. Geochemical simulation of the formation of brine and salt minerals based on Pitzer model in Caka Salt Lake

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LIU; Xingqi; CAI; Keqin; YU; Shengsong

    2004-01-01

    The geochemical simulation of the formation of brine and salt minerals based on Pitzer model was made in Caka Salt Lake. The evolution of the mixed surface-water and the mineral sequences were calculated and compared with the hydrochemical compositions of the brine and the salt minerals of the deposit in Caka Salt Lake. The results show that the formation temperature of the lake is between 0℃ and 5℃, which is well identical with other studies. The mixing of salt-karst water with the surface waters, neglected by the former researchers, is very important to the formation of the lake, indicating that the initial waters resulting in the formation of the lake are multi-source. It is the first time to use Pitzer model in China for making geochemical simulation of the formation and evolution of inland salt lake and satisfactory results have been achieved.

  7. Modeled tephra ages from lake sediments, base of Redoubt Volcano, Alaska

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schiff, C J; Kaufman, D S; Wallace, K L; Werner, A; Ku, T L; Brown, T A

    2007-02-25

    A 5.6-m-long lake sediment core from Bear Lake, Alaska, located 22 km southeast of Redoubt Volcano, contains 67 tephra layers deposited over the last 8750 cal yr, comprising 15% of the total thickness of recovered sediment. Using 12 AMS {sup 14}C ages, along with the {sup 137}Cs and {sup 210}Pb activities of recent sediment, we evaluated different models to determine the age-depth relation of sediment, and to determine the age of each tephra deposit. The age model is based on a cubic smooth spline function that was passed through the adjusted tephra-free depth of each dated layer. The estimated age uncertainty of the 67 tephras averages {+-} 105 yr (1{sigma}). Tephra-fall frequency at Bear Lake was among the highest during the past 500 yr, with eight tephras deposited compared to an average of 3.7 per 500 yr over the last 8500 yr. Other periods of increased tephra fall occurred 2500-3500, 4500-5000, and 7000-7500 cal yr. Our record suggests that Bear Lake experienced extended periods (1000-2000 yr) of increased tephra fall separated by shorter periods (500-1000 yr) of apparent quiescence. The Bear Lake sediment core affords the most comprehensive tephrochronology from the base of the Redoubt Volcano to date, with an average tephra-fall frequency of once every 130 yr.

  8. Evaluation of a Modified Monod Model for Predicting Algal Dynamics in Lake Tai

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jian Huang

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Several modified versions of the Monod model have been proposed to simulate algal dynamics in lakes by keeping the parent model’s advantages of simplicity and low data requirement. This study evaluated the performance of a widely-used modified Monod model in predicting algal dynamics at various time scales in Lake Tai, a typical shallow lake in east China, using multiple time series. Chlorophyll-a (Chl-a concentration was used as a surrogate for algal (CyanoHABs: cyanobacterial harmful algal blooms growth and the independent variables were total nitrogen (TN, total phosphorus (TP, and either water temperature or air temperature. The evaluation indicated that the model parameters could have distinctly different values, depending on whether or not constraints are imposed, time scales, and types of nutrients. The model performance varied in terms of time scales as well as magnitudes and fluctuations of Chl-a and TN or TP concentrations, achieving a relative better performance for the monthly rather than three-day time scale and for the central part rather than bays of the study lake. The model with TP as the independent variable had a better performance than the model with TN as the independent variable, regardless of the time scale used. The temperature-nutrient interactions were important for algal growth when the temporal fluctuations of these two factors were large but the interactions could become minimal otherwise.

  9. Individual-based model of yellow perch and walleye populations in Oneida Lake

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rose, K.A. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States). Environmental Sciences Div.; Rutherford, E.S. [Univ. of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI (United States). Inst. for Fisheries Research; McDermot, D.S. [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States). Dept. of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology; Forney, J.L.; Mills, E.L. [Cornell Univ. Biological Station, Bridgeport, NY (United States)

    1999-05-01

    Predator-prey dynamics and density dependence are fundamental issues in ecology. The authors use a detailed, individual-based model of walleye and yellow perch to investigate the effects of alternative prey and compensatory responses on predator and prey population dynamics. The analyses focus on the numerical and developmental responses of the predator, rather than the traditional emphasis on functional responses. The extensive database for Oneida Lake, New York, USA was used to configure the model and ensure its realism. The model follows the daily growth, mortality, and spawning of individuals of each species through their lifetime. Three ecologically distinct periods in the history of Oneida Lake were simulated: baseline, high mayfly densities, and high forage fish densities. Mayflies and forage fish act as alternative prey for walleye. For model corroboration, the three periods were simulated sequentially as they occurred in Oneida Lake. Model predictions of abundances, size at age, and growth and survival rates compared favorably with Oneida Lake data. Three hypotheses suggested by the data were evaluated: alternative prey stabilizes yellow perch and walleye populations; alternative prey increases yellow perch and walleye recruitment; and density-dependent growth and survival compensate for changes in young-of-the-year mortality. Model simulations were performed under increased mayfly densities, increased forage fish densities, and increased egg mortality rates.

  10. The Development of a Customization Framework for the WRF Model over the Lake Victoria Basin, Eastern Africa on Seasonal Timescales

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Argent

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Lake Victoria, Africa, supports millions of people. To produce reliable climate projections, it is desirable to successfully model the rainfall over the lake accurately. An initial step is taken here with customization of the Weather, Research, and Forecast (WRF model. Of particular interest is an asymmetrical rainfall pattern across the lake basin, due to a diurnal land-lake breeze. The main aim is to present a customization framework for use over the lake. This framework is developed by conducting several series of model runs to investigate aspects of the customization. The runs are analyzed using Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission rainfall data and Climatic Research Unit temperature data. The study shows that the choice of parameters and lake surface temperature initialization can significantly alter the results. Also, the optimal physics combinations for the climatology may not necessarily be suitable for all circumstances, such as extreme years. The study concludes that WRF is unable to reproduce the pattern across the lake. The temperature of the lake is too cold and this prevents the diurnal land-lake breeze reversal. Overall, this study highlights the importance of customizing a model to the region of research and presents a framework through which this may be achieved.

  11. Simulating Microwave Scattering for Wetland Vegetation in Poyang Lake, Southeast China, Using a Coherent Scattering Model

    OpenAIRE

    Jingjuan Liao; Tao Xu; Guozhuang Shen

    2015-01-01

    We developed a polarimetric coherent electromagnetic scattering model for Poyang Lake wetland vegetation. Realistic canopy structures including curved leaves and the lodging situation of the vegetation were taken into account, and the situation at the ground surface was established using an Advanced Integral Equation Model combined with Oh’s 2002 model. This new model can reasonably describe the coherence effect caused by the phase differences of the electromagnetic fields scattered from diff...

  12. Reinvestigating Three Paleo Lake Records in the Middle East using new Model Results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reuter, J. M.; Stott, L. D.; Buenning, N. H.; Yoshimura, K.

    2013-12-01

    Here we present a reinterpretation of three oxygen isotope records from three Middle Eastern Lakes (Zeribar, Van and Eski Acigo). These lake isotope records were interpreted previously to document changes in the precipitation-to-evaporation ratio (Eski and Van) and varying seasonality of precipitation over the lake (Zeribar). These differing interpretations are a consequence of inadequate constraints on atmospheric dynamics that influence isotopic variability in the water cycle of the Middle East. We present new isotope-enabled atmospheric model results that provide a more comprehensive view of each of the potential influences that affected these lake records. Currently the Middle East exhibits a highly seasonal precipitation cycle with the bulk of the rainfall occurring during the winter months. The yearly isotopic composition of rainfall exhibits a seasonal cycle as well with decreased values during the winter and higher isotopic values in both fall and spring. We conducted two model simulations with the Isotope-incorporated Global Spectral Model (IsoGSM): 1) with present-day conditions and 2) with mid-Holocene conditions. For the mid-Holocene simulations changes were made to the surface forcing, orbital parameters and greenhouse gas concentrations. These results show that the annual averaged oxygen isotopes in precipitation 6000 years ago were depleted on the order of 1 to 3‰ compared to present day. The model results are consistent with the published lake core records. However, the shift in isotopic composition of precipitation results from the combined influences of orbital changes, the changes in green house gases and surface forcings. We have evaluated the relative contribution of each of the forcings and present a re-interpretation of the Middle Eastern lake records.

  13. Optimization and Modeling of Enzymatic Hydrolysis Process for Antarctic Krill%南极磷虾酶解工艺优化及模型建立

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    吕传萍; 李学英; 杨宪时; 郭全友

    2011-01-01

    In the present work,alcalase was identified as the most suitable enzyme for enzymatic hydrolysis of Antarctic krill among 7 commonly used enzymes based on simultaneous consideration of chloroacetic acid-nitrogen soluble index(TCA-NSI) and degree of hydrolysis(DH).In order to optimize the hydrolysis of Antarctic krill by alcalase,the effects of the hydrolysis conditions enzyme dosage,substrate concentration,pH,temperature and hydrolysis time on TCA-NSI and DH were studied by one-factor-at-a-time and orthogonal rotary composite design methods.Two regression models with TCA-NSI or DH as a function of each hydrolysis condition were established.The optimal process conditions for hydrolyzing Antarctic krill with alcalase were 50.7 ℃ hydrolysis temperature,pH 8.01,3010 U/g alcalase dosage and 239 min hydrolysis time.Under the optimal conditions,the TCA-NSI and DH were 73.02% and 42.33%,respectively.Meanwhile,peptides with an average length of 2.36 and a molecular mass of 277.9 were obtained.%以短肽得率(trichloroacetic acid-nitrogen soluble index,TCA-NSI)和水解度(degree of hydrolysis,DH)为指标,从7种常用酶中选出Alcalase酶作为酶解南极磷虾的最适酶。对Alcalase酶水解南极磷虾的酶用量、底物浓度、pH值、温度和时间5个因素进行单因素试验和正交旋转组合试验,建立TCA-NSI和DH与各因素的回归模型;在此基础上,结合实际生产确定Alcalase酶水解南极磷虾的最适工艺为温度50.7℃、pH8.01、加酶量3010U/g、时间239min,此时TCA-NSI值为73.02%,DH值为42.33%,短肽平均肽链长(peptide chain long,PCL)为2.36,平均相对分子质量为277.9。

  14. High geothermal heat flux measured below the West Antarctic Ice Sheet.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fisher, Andrew T; Mankoff, Kenneth D; Tulaczyk, Slawek M; Tyler, Scott W; Foley, Neil

    2015-07-01

    The geothermal heat flux is a critical thermal boundary condition that influences the melting, flow, and mass balance of ice sheets, but measurements of this parameter are difficult to make in ice-covered regions. We report the first direct measurement of geothermal heat flux into the base of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS), below Subglacial Lake Whillans, determined from the thermal gradient and the thermal conductivity of sediment under the lake. The heat flux at this site is 285 ± 80 mW/m(2), significantly higher than the continental and regional averages estimated for this site using regional geophysical and glaciological models. Independent temperature measurements in the ice indicate an upward heat flux through the WAIS of 105 ± 13 mW/m(2). The difference between these heat flux values could contribute to basal melting and/or be advected from Subglacial Lake Whillans by flowing water. The high geothermal heat flux may help to explain why ice streams and subglacial lakes are so abundant and dynamic in this region.

  15. Water quality and algal community dynamics of three deepwater lakes in Minnesota utilizing CE-QUAL-W2 models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Erik A.; Kiesling, Richard L.; Galloway, Joel M.; Ziegeweid, Jeffrey R.

    2014-01-01

    Water quality, habitat, and fish in Minnesota lakes will potentially be facing substantial levels of stress in the coming decades primarily because of two stressors: (1) land-use change (urban and agricultural) and (2) climate change. Several regional and statewide lake modeling studies have identified the potential linkages between land-use and climate change on reductions in the volume of suitable lake habitat for coldwater fish populations. In recent years, water-resource scientists have been making the case for focused assessments and monitoring of sentinel systems to address how these stress agents change lakes over the long term. Currently in Minnesota, a large-scale effort called “Sustaining Lakes in a Changing Environment” is underway that includes a focus on monitoring basic watershed, water quality, habitat, and fish indicators of 24 Minnesota sentinel lakes across a gradient of ecoregions, depths, and nutrient levels. As part of this effort, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources, developed predictive water quality models to assess water quality and habitat dynamics of three select deepwater lakes in Minnesota. The three lakes (Lake Carlos in Douglas County, Elk Lake in Clearwater County, and Trout Lake in Cook County) were assessed under recent (2010–11) meteorological conditions. The three selected lakes contain deep, coldwater habitats that remain viable during the summer months for coldwater fish species. Hydrodynamics and water-quality characteristics for each of the three lakes were simulated using the CE-QUAL-W2 model, which is a carbon-based, laterally averaged, two-dimensional water-quality model. The CE-QUAL-W2 models address the interaction between nutrient cycling, primary production, and trophic dynamics to predict responses in the distribution of temperature and oxygen in lakes. The CE-QUAL-W2 models for all three lakes successfully predicted water temperature, on the basis of the

  16. On fuzzy-relational simulation modelling of Prespa-Ohrid Lakes system for ecological studies (Macedonia)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Novel results on simulation modelling of Prespa-Ohrid natural complex system of lakes (in Macedonia) in terms of long-term water level dynamics, for which the observation data are uncertain and unreliable due to historical events, via fuzzy-relations models is presented. This complex system of natural lakes has been found to be rather endangered water resource system during last four decades due to changes caused by local urbanization and irrigation construction. In the course of the study, a kind of self-regulation property of Prespa-Ohrid Lakes due to their natural geophysical creation has been revealed first. In turn, this has enables derivation on an appropriate approach to the simulation modelling of long-term dynamics of water levels. These results have been obtained on the grounds of the observed self-regulation property and of system-theoretic approach to complex processes represented by fuzzy models. Through developed for the case of Prespa-Ohrid complex, it is believed to represent a more general methodology for simulation modelling of natural lakes and man-made reservoirs. (author)

  17. Model Forecasts of Atrazine in Lake Michigan in Response to Various Sensitivity and Potential Management Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    For more than forty years, the herbicide atrazine has been used on corn crops in the Lake Michigan basin to control weeds. It is usually applied to farm fields in the spring before or after the corn crop emerges. A version of the WASP4 mass balance model, LM2-Atrazine, was used...

  18. Polar stratospheric clouds in the 1998-2003 Antarctic vortex: Microphysical modeling and Polar Ozone and Aerosol Measurement (POAM) III observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benson, C. M.; Drdla, K.; Nedoluha, G. E.; Shettle, E. P.; Alfred, J.; Hoppel, K. W.

    2006-09-01

    The Integrated Microphysics and Aerosol Chemistry on Trajectories (IMPACT) model is used to study polar stratospheric cloud (PSC) formation and evolution in the Antarctic vortex. The model is applied to individual air parcel trajectories driven by UK Met Office (UKMO) wind and temperature fields. The IMPACT model calculates the parcel microphysics, including the formation and sedimentation of ice, nitric acid trihydrate (NAT), sulfuric acid tetrahydrate (SAT), and supercooled ternary solution (STS) aerosols. Model results are validated by comparison with data obtained by the Polar Ozone and Aerosol Measurement (POAM) III solar occultation instrument and are examined for 6 years of POAM data (1998-2003). Comparisons of POAM water vapor and aerosol extinction measurements to the model results help to constrain three microphysical parameters influencing the formation and growth of both type I and type II PSCs. Principally, measurements of aerosol extinction prove to be valuable in differentiating model runs; the relationship of aerosol extinction to temperature is determined by the various particle types as they form and grow. Comparison of IMPACT calculations of this relationship to POAM measurements suggests that the initial fraction of nuclei available for heterogeneous NAT freezing is approximately 0.02% of all aerosols. Constraints are also placed on the accommodation coefficient of ice and the NAT-ice lattice compatibility. However, these two parameters have similar effects on the extinction-temperature relationship, and thus a range of values are permissible for each.

  19. Study of the nutrient and plankton dynamics in Lake Tanganyika using a reduced-gravity model

    OpenAIRE

    Naithani, Jaya; Darchambeau, François; Deleersnijder, Eric; Descy, Jean*-Pierre; Wolanski, Eric

    2007-01-01

    An eco-hydrodynamic (ECOH) model is proposed for Lake Tanganyika to study the plankton productivity. The hydrodynamic sub-model solves the non-linear, reduced-gravity equations in which wind is the dominant forcing. The ecological sub-model for the epilimnion comprises nutrients, primary production, phytoplankton biomass and zooplankton biomass. In the absence of significant terrestrial input of nutrients, the nutrient loss is compensated for by seasonal, wind-driven, turbulent entrainment of...

  20. Global dynamics of the Antarctic ice sheet

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oerlemans, J.

    2002-01-01

    The total mass budget of the Antarctic ice sheet is studied with a simple axi-symmetrical model. The ice-sheet has a parabolic profile resting on a bed that slopes linearly downwards from the centre of the ice sheet into the ocean. The mean ice velocity at the grounding line is assumed to be proport

  1. First evidence for a late LGM subglacial lake in Pine Island Bay, Antarctica

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuhn, Gerhard; Hillenbrand, Claus-Dieter; Kasten, Sabine; Smith, James A.; Nitsche, Frank O.; Frederichs, Thomas; Wiers, Steffen; Ehrmann, Werner; Klages, Johann P.; Mogollón, José M.

    2016-04-01

    Subglacial lakes are widespread beneath the Antarctic Ice Sheet and as a source for subglacial meltwater they are assumed to modulate ice stream velocity. Further, the evacuation of subglacial meltwater at the ice sheet margin influences ocean circulation and geochemical cycles. However, despite their importance,, subglacial lakes are one of the least explored environments on our planet. As a consequence, their importance for ice sheet dynamics and their ability to harbour life remain poorly characterised. We present the first direct evidence for a palaeo-subglacial lake on the Antarctic continental shelf, documenting that subglacial meltwater was stored during the last glacial period and evacuated during the subsequent deglaciation. A distinct sediment facies observed in a core recovered from a small bedrock basin in Pine Island Bay, Amundsen Sea, is indicative of deposition within a low-energy subglacial lake setting. Diffusive modelling demonstrates that low chloride concentrations in the pore water of this characteristic sediment facies can only be explained by original deposition in a freshwater setting. We also show that the location of the subglacial lake within a basin on the inner shelf is consistent with the predicted distribution of subglacial lakes based on bathymetric data. This finding will enable future modelling studies to investigate how the geometry and capacity of subglacial lake systems can influence ice dynamics when the substrate and profile of the ice sheet is known - especially in the highly sensitive area known as the "weak underbelly" of the WAIS. With the exception of a direct lake water access at Subglacial Lake Vostok, and some centimetres of sediment retrieval from Subglacial Lake Whillans, the subglacial hydrological system in Antarctica has hitherto mostly been explored using remote sensing and numerical models that suggest the number of potential lake sites to more than 12.000. Our study not only provides first empirical evidence

  2. Modelling the dynamic air-water-sediment coupled fluxes and occurrence of polychlorinated biphenyls in a high altitude lake

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The BIODEP model in terms of atmosphere-lake interactions was developed. The model was applied to an oligotrophic, dimictic high altitude lake (Lake Redo, Pyrenees) for a range of polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) congeners. High altitude lakes, which receive their contaminant inputs uniquely from the atmosphere through long-range atmospheric transport, provide ideal controlled environments for the study of the interactions between atmospheric depositional and water column biogeochemical processes. The BIODEP model was able to predict dissolved water concentrations and PCB accumulation in the lake sediment within a factor of 2. This shows that the BIODEP model captures the essential processes driving the sink of POPs in high altitude lakes and that POP occurrence in the lake is driven by direct atmospheric inputs with limited influence from the watershed. An important seasonal variability in water column concentrations is predicted which should have important implications in sampling strategies. Furthermore, it is shown that diffusive air-water exchange dominated the PCB dynamics in the lake, especially for the less chlorinated biphenyls. - A dynamic flux model was able to accurately predict PCB levels

  3. Origin of the Turkwel delta trajectory (Lake Turkana, Kenya): insights from numerical modeling (DIONISOS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexis, Nutz; Pierre, Dietrich; Vafe, Soumahoro; Mathieu, Schuster; Jean-François, Ghienne

    2016-04-01

    Deltas simultaneously respond to modifications in parameters such as water discharge, sediment supply and base-level change. Those parameters are driven by a number of potential external forcing processes, nevertheless mainly corresponding to tectonism and climate. In this study, geomorphology and numerical modeling are coupled in order to provide analysis of the delta complex of the Turkwel River (Lake Turkana, Kenya). The Turkwel delta complex is 35 km long, forming one of the major deltaic systems that has fringed Lake Turkana during the Holocene. It developed during the lake level regression at the end of the holocene African Humid Period and correspond to a typical forced-regressive delta. Trajectory analysis was performed on three transects cross-cutting the deltaic complex. Transects consistently display five slightly descending (slope gradient: >0° to 0.4°) plateaus separated by four abrupt steps of higher slope gradients (1° to 3.8°). Conventional interpretations presume that the deltaic trajectory results from either (1) four abrupt accelerations in lake level fall during the continuous regression, (2) four abrupt declines in sediment supply and/or water discharge during a steady lake level fall or (3) a combination of both. We used numerical stratigraphic modeling (Dionisos) in order to test the aforementioned hypotheses as the origin of observed trajectories. We concluded that causal relationships between sediment supply, lake level change and progradation trajectory are not as straightforward as recurrently envisioned. We think that this contribution brings new lights on the relationships between deltaic architectures and controlling factors.

  4. A model of the geochemical and physical fluctuations of the lava lake at Erebus volcano, Antarctica

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molina, Indira; Burgisser, Alain; Oppenheimer, Clive

    2015-12-01

    Erebus volcano, Antarctica, exhibits periodical surface fluctuations of both geochemical and physical nature. Modeling the physics driving the lake oscillation is a challenge, even with a relatively simple theoretical framework. We present a quantitative analysis that aims to reconcile both lake level and gas geochemical cycles. Our model is based on the assumption that the periodicity is caused by the regular release of magma batches and/or core annular flow that have a fixed volume of melt and ascend and degas in equilibrium. Results suggest that cycles are not caused by the mixing between magma residing in the lake and a deep magma but by two distinct deep sources that rise separately. These sources of bubbly magma come from at most 2-3 km depth and rise buoyantly. Individual batches detach from the rising magmas at depths of 20-250 m. The two batch types can coexist in a single conduit up to a depth of ~ 30 m, above which they rise alternately to release respectively 19 and 23 kg/s of gas at the lake surface every 10 min. The temperature of the descending flow is between 890 and 950 °C, which is roughly 100 °C colder than the ascending currents. Batch pairs have shapes likely constrained by the conduit width. Regardless of their shapes, the pairs reach very high porosities near the surface and have diameters of 4-14 m that are consistent with video observations showing spreading waves at the lake surface. The alternating arrival of these large batches suggests a lava lake mostly filled with gas-rich magma.

  5. Catchment modeling and model transferability in upper Blue Nile Basin, Lake Tana, Ethiopia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. S. Gragne

    2008-03-01

    Full Text Available Understanding spatial and temporal distribution of water resources has an important role for water resource management. To understand water balance dynamics and runoff generation mechanisms at the Gilgel Abay catchment (a major tributary into lake Tana, source of Blue Nile, Ethiopia and to evaluate model transferability, catchment modeling was conducted using the conceptual hydrological model HBV. The catchment of the Gigel Abay was sub-divided into two gauged sub-catchments (Upper Gilgel Abay, UGASC, and Koga, KSC and one ungauged sub-catchment.

    Manual calibration of the daily models for three different catchment representations (CRs: (i lumped, (ii lumped with multiple vegetation zones, and (iii semi-distributed with vegetations zone and elevation zones, showed good to satisfactory model performance (Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency values, Reff>0.75 and >0.6, respectively, for UGASC and KSC. The change of the time step to fifteen and thirty days resulted in very good model performances in both sub-catchments (Reff>0.8. The model parameter transferability tests conducted on the daily models showed poor performance in both sub-catchments, whereas the fifteen and thirty days models yielded high Reff values using transferred parameter sets. This together with the sensitivity analysis carried out after Monte Carlo simulations (1 000 000 model runs per CR explained the reason behind the difference in hydrologic behaviors of the two sub-catchments UGASC and KSC. The dissimilarity in response pattern of the sub-catchments was caused by the presence of dambos in KSC and differences in the topography between UGASC and KSC. Hence, transferring model parameters from the view of describing hydrological process was found to be not feasible for all models. On the other hand, from a water resources management perspective the results obtained by transferring parameters of the larger time step model were

  6. Modeling water and sediment contamination of Lake Pontchartrain following pump-out of Hurricane Katrina floodwater.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dortch, Mark S; Zakikhani, Mansour; Kim, Sung-Chan; Steevens, Jeffery A

    2008-05-01

    Levee failure and overtopping as a result of Hurricane Katrina caused major flooding of New Orleans, Louisiana. Floodwaters, which were contaminated with heavy metals, organic chemicals, and fecal coliform bacteria (FCB), were pumped into neighboring Lake Pontchartrain during dewatering. The impact of levee failure on water and benthic sediment concentrations in the lake was investigated by applying a numerical water quality model coupled to a three-dimensional, numerical hydrodynamic model. The model was used to compute water and benthic sediment concentrations throughout the lake for lead, arsenic, benzo(a)pyrene (BaP), and 1,1-dichloro-2,2-bis(p-chlorophenyl)ethylene (DDE), and water concentrations for FCB. Computed concentrations resulting from actual pumped discharges with levee failure and overtopping were compared to computed concentrations resulting from pumped discharges without levee failure or overtopping, and concentrations from both sets of conditions were compared to ecological water and sediment quality screening guideline values. The model indicated that incremental increases above pre-Katrina benthic sediment concentrations are about a factor of 10 greater with dewatering of the floodwaters than with dewatering of storm water without flooding. However, these increases for the metals are small relative to pre-Katrina concentrations. The results showed that the ecological screening-level sediment quality guideline values were exceeded for BaP and DDE in areas near the south shoreline of the lake as a result of floodwater pump-out, whereas, this was not the case for storm water removal without flooding. The model showed that lake water column concentrations should be about the same during both dewatering conditions regardless of whether there is flooding or not. PMID:17399885

  7. A mercury transport and fate model (LM2-mercury) for mass budget assessment of mercury cycling in Lake Michigan

    Science.gov (United States)

    LM2-Mercury, a mercury mass balance model, was developed to simulate and evaluate the transport, fate, and biogeochemical transformations of mercury in Lake Michigan. The model simulates total suspended solids (TSS), disolved organic carbon (DOC), and total, elemental, divalent, ...

  8. Large ensemble modeling of the last deglacial retreat of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet: comparison of simple and advanced statistical techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pollard, David; Chang, Won; Haran, Murali; Applegate, Patrick; DeConto, Robert

    2016-05-01

    A 3-D hybrid ice-sheet model is applied to the last deglacial retreat of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet over the last ˜ 20 000 yr. A large ensemble of 625 model runs is used to calibrate the model to modern and geologic data, including reconstructed grounding lines, relative sea-level records, elevation-age data and uplift rates, with an aggregate score computed for each run that measures overall model-data misfit. Two types of statistical methods are used to analyze the large-ensemble results: simple averaging weighted by the aggregate score, and more advanced Bayesian techniques involving Gaussian process-based emulation and calibration, and Markov chain Monte Carlo. The analyses provide sea-level-rise envelopes with well-defined parametric uncertainty bounds, but the simple averaging method only provides robust results with full-factorial parameter sampling in the large ensemble. Results for best-fit parameter ranges and envelopes of equivalent sea-level rise with the simple averaging method agree well with the more advanced techniques. Best-fit parameter ranges confirm earlier values expected from prior model tuning, including large basal sliding coefficients on modern ocean beds.

  9. Computing the transport time scales of a stratified lake on the basis of Tonolli’s model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marco Pilotti

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper deals with a simple model to evaluate the transport time scales in thermally stratified lakes that do not necessarily completely mix on a regular annual basis. The model is based on the formalization of an idea originally proposed in Italian by Tonolli in 1964, who presented a mass balance of the water initially stored within a lake, taking into account the known seasonal evolution of its thermal structure. The numerical solution of this mass balance provides an approximation to the water age distribution for the conceptualised lake, from which an upper bound to the typical time scales widely used in limnology can be obtained. After discussing the original test case considered by Tonolli, we apply the model to Lake Iseo, a deep lake located in the North of Italy, presenting the results obtained on the basis of a 30 year series of data.

  10. Building a Numerical Model of the Filtration Flow in the Żelazny Most Flotation Tailings Disposal Lake

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Strzelecki Tomasz

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents results of numerical computations of the filtration flow of liquid contaminated wastes through the Żelazny Most flotation tailings disposal lake. Unlike the preceding papers [5]-[7], it takes the geological structure of the subsoil into account. A three-dimensional numerical model of the lake was created for computing purposes. Data on some of the effective model parameters were acquired from laboratory tests of the material taken from the lake site. The other data were taken from the literature for media of similar properties. The results of the computations carried out using the model can be a basis for future numerical analyses aimed at determining the consolidation of the flotation tailings disposal lake and its subsoil, and the stability of the lake.

  11. Comparing past accumulation rate reconstructions in East Antarctic ice cores using 10Be, water isotopes and CMIP5-PMIP3 models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Cauquoin

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Ice cores are exceptional archives which allow us to reconstruct a wealth of climatic parameters as well as past atmospheric composition over the last 800 kyr in Antarctica. Inferring the variations in past accumulation rate in polar regions is essential both for documenting past climate and for ice core chronology. On the East Antarctic Plateau, the accumulation rate is so small that annual layers cannot be identified and accumulation rate is mainly deduced from the water isotopic composition assuming constant temporal relationships between temperature, water isotopic composition and accumulation rate. Such an assumption leads to large uncertainties on the reconstructed past accumulation rate. Here, we use high-resolution beryllium-10 (10Be as an alternative tool for inferring past accumulation rate for the EPICA Dome C ice core, in East Antarctica. We present a high-resolution 10Be record covering a full climatic cycle over the period 269 to 355 ka from Marine Isotope Stage (MIS 9 to 10, including a period warmer than pre-industrial (MIS 9.3 optimum. After correcting 10Be for the estimated effect of the palaeomagnetic field, we deduce that the 10Be reconstruction is in reasonably good agreement with EDC3 values for the full cycle except for the period warmer than present. For the latter, the accumulation is up to 13% larger (4.46 cm ie yr−1 instead of 3.95. This result is in agreement with the studies suggesting an underestimation of the deuterium-based accumulation for the optimum of the Holocene (Parrenin et al. 2007a. Using the relationship between accumulation rate and surface temperature from the saturation vapour relationship, the 10Be-based accumulation rate reconstruction suggests that the temperature increase between the MIS 9.3 optimum and present day may be 2.4 K warmer than estimated by the water isotopes reconstruction. We compare these reconstructions to the available model results from CMIP5-PMIP3 for a glacial and an

  12. Modeling spatial-temporal change of Poyang Lake using multi-temporal Landsat imagery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hui, Fengming; Xu, Bing; Huang, Huabing; Gong, Peng

    2007-06-01

    Exchanging water with the lower branch of Yangtze River, Poyang Lake is a seasonal lake. During the spring and summer flooding season it inundates a large area while in the winter it shrinks considerably creating a large tract of marshland for wild migratory birds. A better knowledge on the water coverage duration and the beginning and ending dates for the vast range of marshlands surrounding the lake is important for the measurement, modeling and management of marshland ecosystems. In addition, the abundance of a special type of snail (Oncomelania hupensis) (the intermediate host of parasite schistosome (Schistosoma japonicum) in this region) is also heavily dependent on the water coverage information. However, there is no accurate DEM for the lake bottom and the inundated marshland, nor is there sufficient water level information over this area. In this study, we assess the feasibility on the use of multitemporal Landsat images in mapping the spatial-temporal change of Poyang Lake water body and the temporal process of water inundating of marshlands. All eight Landsat Thematic Mapper images that are cloud free during a period of one year were used in this study. We used NDWI and MNDWI methods to map water bodies. We then examine the annual spatial-temporal change of the Poyang Lake water body. Finally we attempt to obtain the duration of water inundation of marshlands based on the temporal sequence of water extent determined from the Landsat images. The results showed although the images can be used to capture the snapshots of water coverage in this area, they are insufficient to provide accurate estimation on the spatial-temporal process of water inundating over the marshlands through linear interpolation.

  13. The East Antarctic Ice Sheet and the Gamburtsev Subglacial Mountains (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bell, R. E.; Studinger, M.; Ferraccioli, F.; Damaske, D.; Finn, C.; Braaten, D. A.; Fahnestock, M. A.; Jordan, T. A.; Corr, H.; Elieff, S.; Frearson, N.; Block, A. E.; Rose, K.

    2009-12-01

    Models of the onset of glaciation in Antarctica routinely document the early growth of the ice sheet on the summit of the Gamburtsev Subglacial Mountains in the center of the East Antarctic Craton. While ice sheet models replicate the formation of the East Antarctic ice sheet 35 million years ago, the age, evolution and structure of the Gamburtsev Mountains remain completely unresolved. During the International Polar Year scientists from seven nations have launched a major collaborative program (AGAP) to explore the Gamburtsev Subglacial Mountains buried by the East Antarctic ice sheet and bounded by numerous subglacial lakes. The AGAP umbrella is a multi-national, multi-disciplinary effort and includes aerogeophysics, passive seismology, traverse programs and will be complimented by future ice core and bedrock drilling. A major new airborne data set including gravity; magnetics; ice thickness; SAR images of the ice-bed interface; near-surface and deep internal layers; and ice surface elevation is providing insights into a more dynamic East Antarctica. More than 120,000 km of aerogeophysical data have been acquired from two remote field camps during the 2008/09 field season. AGAP effort was designed to address several fundamental questions including: 1) What role does topography play in the nucleation of continental ice sheets? 2) How do tectonic processes control the formation, distribution, and stability of subglacial lakes? The preliminary analysis of this major new data set indicated these 3000m high mountains are deeply dissected by a dendritic system. The northern margin of the mountain range terminates against the inland extent of the Lambert Graben. Evidence of the onset of glaciation is preserved as cirques and U shaped valleys along the axis of the uplifted massifs. The geomorphology reflects the interaction between the ice sheet and the Gamburtsev Mountains. Bright reflectors in the radar data in the deep valleys indicate the presence of water that has

  14. A simple lumped model to convert air temperature into surface water temperature in lakes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Piccolroaz

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Water temperature in lakes is governed by a complex heat budget, where the estimation of the single fluxes requires the use of several hydro-meteorological variables that are not generally available. In order to address this issue, we developed Air2Water, a simple physically based model to relate the temperature of the lake superficial layer (epilimnion to air temperature only. The model has the form of an ordinary differential equation that accounts for the overall heat exchanges with the atmosphere and the deeper layer of the lake (hypolimnion by means of simplified relationships, which contain a few parameters (from four to eight in the different proposed formulations to be calibrated with the combined use of air and water temperature measurements. The calibration of the parameters in a given case study allows for one to estimate, in a synthetic way, the influence of the main processes controlling the lake thermal dynamics, and to recognize the atmospheric temperature as the main factor driving the evolution of the system. In fact, under certain hypotheses the air temperature variation implicitly contains proper information about the other major processes involved, and hence in our approach is considered as the only input variable of the model. In particular, the model is suitable to be applied over long timescales (from monthly to interannual, and can be easily used to predict the response of a lake to climate change, since projected air temperatures are usually available by large-scale global circulation models. In this paper, the model is applied to Lake Superior (USA–Canada considering a 27 yr record of measurements, among which 18 yr are used for calibration and the remaining 9 yr for model validation. The calibration of the model is obtained by using the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE methodology, which also allows for a sensitivity analysis of the parameters. The results show remarkable agreement with

  15. Documentation of a computer program to simulate lake-aquifer interaction using the MODFLOW ground water flow model and the MOC3D solute-transport model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merritt, Michael L.; Konikow, Leonard F.

    2000-01-01

    Heads and flow patterns in surficial aquifers can be strongly influenced by the presence of stationary surface-water bodies (lakes) that are in direct contact, vertically and laterally, with the aquifer. Conversely, lake stages can be significantly affected by the volume of water that seeps through the lakebed that separates the lake from the aquifer. For these reasons, a set of computer subroutines called the Lake Package (LAK3) was developed to represent lake/aquifer interaction in numerical simulations using the U.S. Geological Survey three-dimensional, finite-difference, modular ground-water flow model MODFLOW and the U.S. Geological Survey three-dimensional method-of-characteristics solute-transport model MOC3D. In the Lake Package described in this report, a lake is represented as a volume of space within the model grid which consists of inactive cells extending downward from the upper surface of the grid. Active model grid cells bordering this space, representing the adjacent aquifer, exchange water with the lake at a rate determined by the relative heads and by conductances that are based on grid cell dimensions, hydraulic conductivities of the aquifer material, and user-specified leakance distributions that represent the resistance to flow through the material of the lakebed. Parts of the lake may become ?dry? as upper layers of the model are dewatered, with a concomitant reduction in lake surface area, and may subsequently rewet when aquifer heads rise. An empirical approximation has been encoded to simulate the rewetting of a lake that becomes completely dry. The variations of lake stages are determined by independent water budgets computed for each lake in the model grid. This lake budget process makes the package a simulator of the response of lake stage to hydraulic stresses applied to the aquifer. Implementation of a lake water budget requires input of parameters including those representing the rate of lake atmospheric recharge and evaporation

  16. On applied state estimation and observation theory to simulation modelling of Prespa-Ohrid Lakes system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In the south-west of the Republic of Macedonia, on the cross boundary area with Republic of Albania and Republic of Greece, Prespa-Ohrid hydrologic region is located. To this region belong Prespa and Ohrid valleys, on the bottom of which the lakes of Prespa and Ohrid reside. Due to the fact that there is no surface hydrologic link and that they are separated by high mountain Galichica, both valleys and lakes constitute almost mutually autonomous hydrologic entities. This paper presents a study on the hydrologic cycle of Prespa Lake basin for the purpose of developing and identifying a simulation model for the long term dynamics of the water level. The actual simulation modelling technique makes use of available apriori knowledge and available recorder or observed data on phenomena involving the whole cycle from precipitation to evaporation and evapotranspiration in Prespa basin. Also, a modelling account for the functional impact due to strong interaction with Ohrid basin, is included. The resulting simulation model is a set of discrete-time state equation, derived on the grounds of the conceptual model of interconnected multiple tanks and of discrete-time observation (output) equation. The dynamic structure of Kalman filter for both linear and non-linear modelling case is derived and a discussion on applicability and further research is given. (author)

  17. Simulation of Tritium Transport and Groundwater Age in a Variably Saturated 3D Model, Lake Rotorua Catchment, New Zealand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daughney, C.; Toews, M. W.; Morgenstern, U.; Cornaton, F. J.; Jackson, B. M.

    2013-12-01

    Lake Rotorua is a focus of culture and tourism in New Zealand. The lake's water quality has declined since the 1970s, partly due to nutrient inputs that reach the lake via the groundwater system. Improved land use management within the catchment requires prediction of the spatial variations of groundwater transit time from land surface to the lake, and from this the prediction of current and future nutrient inflows to the lake. This study combines the two main methods currently available for determination of water age: numerical groundwater models and hydrological tracers. A steady-state 3D finite element model was constructed to simulate groundwater flow and transport of tritium and age at the catchment scale (555 km2). The model materials were defined using a 3D geologic model and included ignimbrites, rhyolites, alluvial and lake bottom sediments. The steady-state saturated groundwater flow model was calibrated using observed groundwater levels in boreholes (111 locations) and stream flow measurements from groundwater-fed streams and springs (61 locations). Hydraulic conductivities and Cauchy boundary conditions associated with the streams, springs and lake were parameterized. The transport parameters for the model were calibrated using 191 tritium samples from 105 locations (springs, streams and boreholes), with most locations having two sample dates. The transport model used steady-state flow, but simulated the transient transport and decay of tritium from rainfall recharge between 1945 and 2012. An additional 1D unsaturated sub-model was added to account for tritium decay from the ground surface to the water table. The sub-model is linked on top of the 3D model, and uses the water table depths and material properties from the 3D model. The adjustable calibration parameters for the transport model were porosity and van Genuchten parameters related to the unsaturated sub-models. Calibration of the flow model was achieved using a combination of automated least

  18. Acidification in Three Lake District Tarns: Historical Iong term trends and modelled future behaviour under changing sulphate and nitrate deposition

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. G. Whitchead

    1997-01-01

    Full Text Available Three upland Lake District Tarns, Scoat, Greendale and Burnmoor, have been evaluated using MAGIC (Model of Acidification of Groundwater In Catchments to reconstruct past, present and future chemical behaviour. The modelled historical changes in acidity are compared with palaeoecological estimation of pH to demonstrate model validity. Chemistry as simulated for all anions and cations and two of the three lakes are shown to have undergone significant acidification. The effects of changing atmospheric pollution levels on lake chemistry is evaluated and 80-90% sulphur reduction levels are required to achieve zero alkalinity. The impacts of increased nitrogen deposition are assessed and are shown to further delay reversibility.

  19. Simulation of surface energy fluxes and stratification of a small boreal lake by a set of one-dimensional models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Victor Stepanenko

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Five one-dimensional (1D lake models were run for the open water season in 2006 for Lake Valkea-Kotinen (Finland using on-lake measured meteorological forcing. The model results were validated using measurements of water temperature and of eddy covariance (EC fluxes. The surface temperature is satisfactorily simulated by all models showing slight overestimation (by 0.1–1.1°C. Both sensible and latent heat fluxes are positively biased in respect to EC data, consistent with earlier studies. However, correlation coefficients between EC-fluxes and those simulated are relatively high ranging from 0.55 to 0.74. The skill to simulate vertical temperature profiles by different models is assessed as well. It is found that the lake models underestimate the EC-derived surface drag coefficient, however providing realistic temperature profiles. It is argued that the real momentum flux from the atmosphere is larger than simulated, however it is split up between the wave development and the acceleration of lake currents. Adopting the simple parameterisation for momentum flux partitioning in one of the models showed that this mechanism can be significant. Finally, the effect of including the lake bathymetry data in k-ɛ models was the drastic overheating of water below the thermocline. This is likely to be caused by omitting the heat flux at the lake margins. Thus, the parameterisation of heat flux at the lake's margins should be included in the models; otherwise it is recommended to neglect bathymetry effects for such small water bodies as the Lake Valkea-Kotinen.

  20. Modeling aluminum-silicon chemistries and application to Australian acidic playa lakes as analogues for Mars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marion, G.M.; Crowley, J.K.; Thomson, B.J.; Kargel, J.S.; Bridges, N.T.; Hook, S.J.; Baldridge, A.; Brown, A.J.; Ribeiro da Luz, B.; de Souza, Filho C.R.

    2009-01-01

    Recent Mars missions have stimulated considerable thinking about the surficial geochemical evolution of Mars. Among the major relevant findings are the presence in Meridiani Planum sediments of the mineral jarosite (a ferric sulfate salt) and related minerals that require formation from an acid-salt brine and oxidizing environment. Similar mineralogies have been observed in acidic saline lake sediments in Western Australia (WA), and these lakes have been proposed as analogues for acidic sedimentary environments on Mars. The prior version of the equilibrium chemical thermodynamic FREZCHEM model lacked Al and Si chemistries that are needed to appropriately model acidic aqueous geochemistries on Earth and Mars. The objectives of this work were to (1) add Al and Si chemistries to the FREZCHEM model, (2) extend these chemistries to low temperatures (silicon mineral parameterizations were based on Gibbs free energy and enthalpy data. New aluminum and silicon parameterizations added 12 new aluminum/silicon minerals to this Na-K-Mg-Ca-Fe(II)-Fe(III)-Al-H-Cl-Br-SO4-NO3-OH-HCO3-CO3-CO2-O2-CH4-Si-H2O system that now contain 95 solid phases. There were similarities, differences, and uncertainties between Australian acidic, saline playa lakes and waters that likely led to the Burns formation salt accumulations on Mars. Both systems are similar in that they are dominated by (1) acidic, saline ground waters and sediments, (2) Ca and/or Mg sulfates, and (3) iron precipitates such as jarosite and hematite. Differences include: (1) the dominance of NaCl in many WA lakes, versus the dominance of Fe-Mg-Ca-SO4 in Meridiani Planum, (2) excessively low K+ concentrations in Meridiani Planum due to jarosite precipitation, (3) higher acid production in the presence of high iron concentrations in Meridiani Planum, and probably lower rates of acid neutralization and hence, higher acidities on Mars owing to colder temperatures, and (4) lateral salt patterns in WA lakes. The WA playa lakes

  1. Lake retention of manufactured nanoparticles

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Koelmans, A.A.; Quik, J.T.K.; Velzeboer, I.

    2015-01-01

    For twenty-five world lakes and three engineered nanoparticles (ENP), lake retention was calculated using a uniformly mixed lake mass balance model. This follows similar approaches traditionally used in water quality management. Lakes were selected such that lake residence times, depths and areal hy

  2. Water regime of Playa Lakes from southern Spain: conditioning factors and hydrological modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moral, Francisco; Rodriguez-Rodriguez, Miguel; Beltrán, Manuel; Benavente, José; Cifuentes, Victor Juan

    2013-07-01

    Andalusia's lowland countryside has a network of small geographically isolated playa lakes scattered across an area of 9000 km2 whose watersheds are mostly occupied by clayey rocks. The hydrological model proposed by the authors seeks to find equilibrium among usefulness, simplicity, and applicability to isolated playas in a semiarid context elsewhere. Based in such model, the authors have used monthly climatic data, water stage measurements, and the basin morphometry of a particular case (Los Jarales playa lake) to calibrate the soil water budget in the catchment and the water inputs from the watershed (runoff plus groundwater flow) at different scales, from monthly to daily. After the hydrologic model was calibrated, the authors implemented simulations with the goal of reproducing the past hydrological dynamics and forecasting water regime changes that would be caused by a modification of the wetland morphometry.

  3. Regional genetic diversity patterns in Antarctic hairgrass (Deschampsia antartica Desv.)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van de Wouw, M.J.; Van Dijk, P.J.; Huiskes, A.H.L.

    2008-01-01

    Aim To determine patterns in diversity of a major Antarctic plant species, including relationships of Antarctic populations with those outside the Antarctic zone. Location Antarctic Peninsula, Maritime Antarctica, sub-Antarctic islands, Falkland Islands and South America. Methods Amplified fragment

  4. Modelling the Loktak Lake Basin to Assess Human Impact on Water Resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eliza, K.

    2015-12-01

    Loktak Lake is an internationally important, Ramsar designated, fresh water wetland system in the state of Manipur, India. The lake was also listed under Montreux Record on account of the ecological modifications that the lake system has witnessed over time. A characteristic feature of this lake is the extensive occurrence of coalesced, naturally or otherwise, vegetative masses floating over it. A contiguous 40 km2 area of Phumdis, as these vegetative masses are locally referred to, also constitutes the only natural home of the endemic and endangered species of Manipur's brow-antlered deer popularly known as Sangai. Appropriately notified as Keibul Lamjao National Park by Government of India, this natural feature is known to be the world's largest floating park. Water quality and sediment deposition on account of soil erosion in its catchments are some of the emerging concerns along with a reported enhanced frequency and duration of flooding of the shore areas, reduced fish catch within a visibly deteriorated overall natural ecosystem. Disturbances of watershed processes, command area management practices, ineffective as indeed largely absent, waste management practices and management interventions linked to the Loktak Hydroelectric Project are often cited as the principal triggers that are seen to be responsible for the damage. An effective management protocol for the Lake requires a rigorous understanding of its hydrobiology and eco-hydrodynamics. The present study is carried out to establish such a characterization of the various rivers systems draining directly into the Lake using MIKE SHE, MIKE 11 HD and MIKE 11 ECO Lab modelling platforms. Water quality modelling was limited to dissolved oxygen (DO), biological oxygen demand (BOD) and water temperature. Model calibration was done using the available measured water quality data. The derived results were then investigated for causal correlation with anthropogenic influences to assess human impact on water

  5. Modelling cascading and erosional processes for glacial lake outburst floods in the Quillcay catchment, Huaraz, Cordillera Blanca, Peru

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baer, Patrick; Huggel, Christian; Frey, Holger; Chisolm, Rachel; McKinney, Daene; McArdell, Brian; Portocarrero, Cesar; Cochachin, Alejo

    2016-04-01

    Huaraz as the largest city in Cordillera Blanca has faced a major disaster in 1941, when an outburst flood from Lake Palcacocha killed several thousand people and caused widespread destruction. Recent studies on glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) modelling and early warning systems focussed on Lake Palcacocha which has regrown after the 1941 event, from a volume of half a million m3 in 1974 to a total volume of more than 17 million m3 today. However, little research has been conducted so far concerning the situation of other lakes in the Quillcay catchment, namely Lake Tullparaju (12 mill. m3) and Cuchillacocha (2.5 mill. m3), which both also pose a threat to the city of Huaraz. In this study, we modelled the cascading processes at Lake Tullparaju and Lake Cuchillacocha including rock/ice avalanches, flood wave propagation in the lake and the resulting outburst flood and debris flows. We used the 2D model RAMMS to simulate ice avalanches. Model output was used as input for analytical 2D and 3D calculations of impact waves in the lakes that allowed us to estimate dam overtopping wave height. Since the dimension of the hanging glaciers above all three lakes is comparable, the scenarios in this study have been defined similar to the previous study at Lake Palcacocha. The flow propagation model included sediment entrainment in the steeper parts of the catchment, adding up to 50% to the initial flow volume. The results for total travel time as well as for inundated areas and flow depth and velocity in the city of Huaraz are comparable to the previous studies at Lake Palcacocha. This underlines the importance of considering also these lakes within an integral hazard analysis for the city of Huaraz. A main challenge for modelling GLOFs in the Quillcay catchment using RAMMS is the long runout distance of over 22 km combined with the very low slope gradient of the river. Further studies could improve the process understanding and could focus on more detailed investigations

  6. On the use of high-throughput sequencing for the study of cyanobacterial diversity in Antarctic aquatic mats.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pessi, Igor Stelmach; Maalouf, Pedro De Carvalho; Laughinghouse, Haywood Dail; Baurain, Denis; Wilmotte, Annick

    2016-06-01

    The study of Antarctic cyanobacterial diversity has been mostly limited to morphological identification and traditional molecular techniques. High-throughput sequencing (HTS) allows a much better understanding of microbial distribution in the environment, but its application is hampered by several methodological and analytical challenges. In this work, we explored the use of HTS as a tool for the study of cyanobacterial diversity in Antarctic aquatic mats. Our results highlight the importance of using artificial communities to validate the parameters of the bioinformatics procedure used to analyze natural communities, since pipeline-dependent biases had a strong effect on the observed community structures. Analysis of microbial mats from five Antarctic lakes and an aquatic biofilm from the Sub-Antarctic showed that HTS is a valuable tool for the assessment of cyanobacterial diversity. The majority of the operational taxonomic units retrieved were related to filamentous taxa such as Leptolyngbya and Phormidium, which are common genera in Antarctic lacustrine microbial mats. However, other phylotypes related to different taxa such as Geitlerinema, Pseudanabaena, Synechococcus, Chamaesiphon, Calothrix, and Coleodesmium were also found. Results revealed a much higher diversity than what had been reported using traditional methods and also highlighted remarkable differences between the cyanobacterial communities of the studied lakes. The aquatic biofilm from the Sub-Antarctic had a distinct cyanobacterial community from the Antarctic lakes, which in turn displayed a salinity-dependent community structure at the phylotype level.

  7. On the use of high-throughput sequencing for the study of cyanobacterial diversity in Antarctic aquatic mats.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pessi, Igor Stelmach; Maalouf, Pedro De Carvalho; Laughinghouse, Haywood Dail; Baurain, Denis; Wilmotte, Annick

    2016-06-01

    The study of Antarctic cyanobacterial diversity has been mostly limited to morphological identification and traditional molecular techniques. High-throughput sequencing (HTS) allows a much better understanding of microbial distribution in the environment, but its application is hampered by several methodological and analytical challenges. In this work, we explored the use of HTS as a tool for the study of cyanobacterial diversity in Antarctic aquatic mats. Our results highlight the importance of using artificial communities to validate the parameters of the bioinformatics procedure used to analyze natural communities, since pipeline-dependent biases had a strong effect on the observed community structures. Analysis of microbial mats from five Antarctic lakes and an aquatic biofilm from the Sub-Antarctic showed that HTS is a valuable tool for the assessment of cyanobacterial diversity. The majority of the operational taxonomic units retrieved were related to filamentous taxa such as Leptolyngbya and Phormidium, which are common genera in Antarctic lacustrine microbial mats. However, other phylotypes related to different taxa such as Geitlerinema, Pseudanabaena, Synechococcus, Chamaesiphon, Calothrix, and Coleodesmium were also found. Results revealed a much higher diversity than what had been reported using traditional methods and also highlighted remarkable differences between the cyanobacterial communities of the studied lakes. The aquatic biofilm from the Sub-Antarctic had a distinct cyanobacterial community from the Antarctic lakes, which in turn displayed a salinity-dependent community structure at the phylotype level. PMID:27273529

  8. Spatial heterogeneity in geothermally-influenced lakes derived from atmospherically corrected Landsat thermal imagery and three-dimensional hydrodynamic modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allan, Mathew G.; Hamilton, David P.; Trolle, Dennis; Muraoka, Kohji; McBride, Christopher

    2016-08-01

    Atmospheric correction of Landsat 7 thermal data was carried out for the purpose of retrieval of lake skin water temperature in Rotorua lakes, and Lake Taupo, North Island, New Zealand. The effect of the atmosphere was modelled using four sources of atmospheric profile data as input to the MODerate resolution atmospheric TRANsmission (MODTRAN) radiative transfer model. The retrieved skin water temperatures were validated using a high-frequency temperature sensor deployed from a monitoring buoy at the water surface of Lake Rotorua. The most accurate atmospheric correction method was with Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) atmospheric profile data (root-mean-square-error, RMSE, 0.48 K), followed by radiosonde (0.52 K), Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) Level 3 (0.54 K), and the NASA atmospheric correction parameter calculator (0.94 K). Retrieved water temperature was used for assessing spatial heterogeneity and accuracy of surface water temperature simulated with a three-dimensional (3-D) hydrodynamic model of Lake Rotoehu, located approximately 20 km east of Lake Rotorua. This comparison indicated that the model was suitable for reproducing the dominant horizontal variations in surface water temperature in the lake. This study demonstrated the potential of accurate satellite-based thermal monitoring to validate temperature outputs from 3-D hydrodynamic model simulations. It also provided atmospheric correction options for local and global applications of Landsat thermal data.

  9. A coupled regolith-lake development model applied to the Forsmark site

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brydsten, Lars; Stroemgren, Maarten (Umeaa Univ., Umeaa (Sweden))

    2010-11-15

    The Quaternary geology at the Forsmark site has been characterized using both a map of Quaternary deposits and a regolith depth model (RDM) that show the stratigraphy and thickness of different deposits. Regolith refers to all the unconsolidated deposits overlying the bedrock. The surface geology and regolith depth are important parameters for hydrogeological and geochemical modelling and for the overall understanding of the area. The safety assessment analysis should focus on processes involved during a period of 120,000 years, which includes a full glacial cycle; however, the investigations within the site description model do not cover the temporal change of the regolith, a limitation that does not fulfil the requirements for the safety assessment. To this end, this study constructs a model that can predict the surface geology, stratigraphy, and thickness of different strata at any time during a glacial cycle and applies this model to the Forsmark site. The Weichselian ice sheet covered the study area until around 9500 BC. The deglaciation revealed a marine landscape with bedrock, till and glacial clay. For the safety assessment, the most important unconsolidated strata are clay or silt: these small grains can bind nuclear elements more easily than coarser sediment particles. Thick layers of clay can be found where post-glacial clay settled on top of glacial clay, especially where the middle-aged erosion of postglacial clay is missing and where there is an uninterrupted sequence of accumulation of finegrained particles. Such areas could be found in deep marine basins that later become lakes when raised into a supra-marine position. The coupled regolith-lake development model (RLDM) predicts the course of events described above during an interglacial, especially the dynamics of the clay and silt particles. The RLDM is divided into two modules: a marine module that predicts the sediment dynamics caused by wind waves and a lake module that predicts the lake infill

  10. Three-dimensional eutrophication model and application to Taihu Lake,China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    MAO Jingqiao; CHEN Qiuwen; CHEN Yongcan

    2008-01-01

    Talhu Lake,the largest freshwater shallow lake in eastern China,has suffered from severe eutrophication over the past two decades. This research developed a three-dimensional eutrophication model to investigate the eutrophication dynamics.The model fully coupled the biological processes and hydrodynamics,and also took into account the effects of sediment release and the external loads from the tributaries.After sensitivity analyses,the key parameters were defined and then calibrated by the field observation data.The calibrated model was applied to study the seasonal primary productions and its regional differences.The comparisons between model results and field data in year 2000 indicated that the model is able to simulate the eutrophication dynamics in Taihu Lake with a reasonable accuracy.From the simulation experiments,it was found that the meteorological forcing have significant influences on the temporal variations of the eutrophication dynamics.The wind-induced circulation and sediment distribution play an important role in the spatial distribution of the algae blooms.

  11. A simple method to model the reduced environment of lake bottom sapropel formation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaskova, Olga L.; Strakhovenko, Vera D.; Ermolaeva, Nadezhda I.; Zarubina, Eugene Yu.; Ovdina, Ekaterina A.

    2016-07-01

    The Kambala and Barchin brackish lakes (Baraba steppe, southern West Siberia) contain an organic-rich sapropel layer that was formed in oxygen-depleted waters. We measured the bulk sediment elemental composition, the water chemistry and determined the mineralogical composition and predominant biota species (Diatoms and Cyanobacteria in phytoplankton community respectively) in the lakes. The result indicates that the first lake has a siliceous type of sapropel and the second a carbonaceous one. A computer thermodynamic model was developed for chemical interaction in water-bottom sediment systems of the Kambala and Barchin Lakes. The surface sodium bicarbonate waters are supersaturated with respect to calcite, magnesite (or low Mg-calcite), quartz and chlorite with minor strontianite, apatite and goethite (pH 8.9-9.3, Eh 0.3 V). Nevertheless, it is shown that during sapropel deposition, deep silt waters should be anoxic (Ehimpact and abiotic reduction. Thermodynamic calculation has shown that silt water is not necessarily euxinic (anoxic and sulfidic). Depending on Eh, sulfate sulfur can dominate in solution, causing the formation of gypsum together with pyrite. An attempt was made to find a reason for solution supersaturation with respect to Ca and Mg ions due to their complexation with humic acids.

  12. Lake isotope records of the 8200-year cooling event in western Ireland: Comparison with model simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holmes, Jonathan A.; Tindall, Julia; Roberts, Neil; Marshall, William; Marshall, Jim D.; Bingham, Ann; Feeser, Ingo; O'Connell, Michael; Atkinson, Tim; Jourdan, Anne-Lise; March, Anna; Fisher, Elizabeth H.

    2016-01-01

    The early Holocene cooling, which occurred around 8200 calendar years before present, was a prominent abrupt event around the north Atlantic region. Here, we investigate the timing, duration, magnitude and regional coherence of the event as expressed in carbonate oxygen-isotope records from three lakes on northwest Europe's Atlantic margin in western Ireland, namely Loch Avolla, Loch Gealáin and Lough Corrib. An abrupt negative oxygen-isotope excursion lasted about 200 years. Comparison of records from three sites suggests that the excursion was primarily the result of a reduction of the oxygen-isotope values of precipitation, which was likely caused by lowered air temperatures, possibly coupled with a change in atmospheric circulation. Comparison of records from two of the lakes (Loch Avolla and Loch Gealáin), which have differing bathymetries, further suggests a reduction in evaporative loss of lake water during the cooling episode. Comparison of climate model experiments with lake-sediment isotope data indicates that effective moisture may have increased along this part of the northeast Atlantic seaboard during the 8200-year climatic event, as lower evaporation compensated for reduced precipitation.

  13. A simple method to model the reduced environment of lake bottom sapropel formation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaskova, Olga L.; Strakhovenko, Vera D.; Ermolaeva, Nadezhda I.; Zarubina, Eugene Yu.; Ovdina, Ekaterina A.

    2016-07-01

    The Kambala and Barchin brackish lakes (Baraba steppe, southern West Siberia) contain an organic-rich sapropel layer that was formed in oxygen-depleted waters. We measured the bulk sediment elemental composition, the water chemistry and determined the mineralogical composition and predominant biota species (Diatoms and Cyanobacteria in phytoplankton community respectively) in the lakes. The result indicates that the first lake has a siliceous type of sapropel and the second a carbonaceous one. A computer thermodynamic model was developed for chemical interaction in water-bottom sediment systems of the Kambala and Barchin Lakes. The surface sodium bicarbonate waters are supersaturated with respect to calcite, magnesite (or low Mg-calcite), quartz and chlorite with minor strontianite, apatite and goethite (pH 8.9-9.3, Eh 0.3 V). Nevertheless, it is shown that during sapropel deposition, deep silt waters should be anoxic (Ehsulfate sulfur can dominate in solution, causing the formation of gypsum together with pyrite. An attempt was made to find a reason for solution supersaturation with respect to Ca and Mg ions due to their complexation with humic acids.

  14. Modeling Hydrodynamics and Heat Transport in Upper Klamath Lake, Oregon, and Implications for Water Quality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, Tamara M.; Cheng, Ralph T.; Gartner, Jeffrey W.; Hoilman, Gene R.; Lindenberg, Mary K.; Wellman, Roy E.

    2008-01-01

    The three-dimensional numerical model UnTRIM was used to model hydrodynamics and heat transport in Upper Klamath Lake, Oregon, between mid-June and mid-September in 2005 and between mid-May and mid-October in 2006. Data from as many as six meteorological stations were used to generate a spatially interpolated wind field to use as a forcing function. Solar radiation, air temperature, and relative humidity data all were available at one or more sites. In general, because the available data for all inflows and outflows did not adequately close the water budget as calculated from lake elevation and stage-capacity information, a residual inflow or outflow was used to assure closure of the water budget. Data used for calibration in 2005 included lake elevation at 3 water-level gages around the lake, water currents at 5 Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler (ADCP) sites, and temperature at 16 water-quality monitoring locations. The calibrated model accurately simulated the fluctuations of the surface of the lake caused by daily wind patterns. The use of a spatially variable surface wind interpolated from two sites on the lake and four sites on the shoreline generally resulted in more accurate simulation of the currents than the use of a spatially invariant surface wind as observed at only one site on the lake. The simulation of currents was most accurate at the deepest site (ADCP1, where the velocities were highest) using a spatially variable surface wind; the mean error (ME) and root mean square error (RMSE) for the depth-averaged speed over a 37-day simulation from July 26 to August 31, 2005, were 0.50 centimeter per second (cm/s) and 3.08 cm/s, respectively. Simulated currents at the remaining sites were less accurate and, in general, underestimated the measured currents. The maximum errors in simulated currents were at a site near the southern end of the trench at the mouth of Howard Bay (ADCP7), where the ME and RMSE in the depth-averaged speed were 3.02 and 4.38 cm

  15. Ozone distributions over southern Lake Michigan: comparisons between ferry-based observations, shoreline-based DOAS observations and model forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cleary, P. A.; Fuhrman, N.; Schulz, L.; Schafer, J.; Fillingham, J.; Bootsma, H.; McQueen, J.; Tang, Y.; Langel, T.; McKeen, S.; Williams, E. J.; Brown, S. S.

    2015-05-01

    Air quality forecast models typically predict large summertime ozone abundances over water relative to land in the Great Lakes region. While each state bordering Lake Michigan has dedicated monitoring systems, offshore measurements have been sparse, mainly executed through specific short-term campaigns. This study examines ozone abundances over Lake Michigan as measured on the Lake Express ferry, by shoreline differential optical absorption spectroscopy (DOAS) observations in southeastern Wisconsin and as predicted by the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model. From 2008 to 2009 measurements of O3, SO2, NO2 and formaldehyde were made in the summertime by DOAS at a shoreline site in Kenosha, WI. From 2008 to 2010 measurements of ambient ozone were conducted on the Lake Express, a high-speed ferry that travels between Milwaukee, WI, and Muskegon, MI, up to six times daily from spring to fall. Ferry ozone observations over Lake Michigan were an average of 3.8 ppb higher than those measured at shoreline in Kenosha, with little dependence on position of the ferry or temperature and with greatest differences during evening and night. Concurrent 1-48 h forecasts from the CMAQ model in the upper Midwestern region surrounding Lake Michigan were compared to ferry ozone measurements, shoreline DOAS measurements and Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) station measurements. The bias of the model O3 forecast was computed and evaluated with respect to ferry-based measurements. Trends in the bias with respect to location and time of day were explored showing non-uniformity in model bias over the lake. Model ozone bias was consistently high over the lake in comparison to land-based measurements, with highest biases for 25-48 h after initialization.

  16. A simplified physically-based model to calculate surface water temperature of lakes from air temperature in climate change scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piccolroaz, S.; Toffolon, M.

    2012-12-01

    Modifications of water temperature are crucial for the ecology of lakes, but long-term analyses are not usually able to provide reliable estimations. This is particularly true for climate change studies based on Global Circulation Models, whose mesh size is normally too coarse for explicitly including even some of the biggest lakes on Earth. On the other hand, modeled predictions of air temperature changes are more reliable, and long-term, high-resolution air temperature observational datasets are more available than water temperature measurements. For these reasons, air temperature series are often used to obtain some information about the surface temperature of water bodies. In order to do that, it is common to exploit regression models, but they are questionable especially when it is necessary to extrapolate current trends beyond maximum (or minimum) measured temperatures. Moreover, water temperature is influenced by a variety of processes of heat exchange across the lake surface and by the thermal inertia of the water mass, which also causes an annual hysteresis cycle between air and water temperatures that is hard to consider in regressions. In this work we propose a simplified, physically-based model for the estimation of the epilimnetic temperature in lakes. Starting from the zero-dimensional heat budget, we derive a simplified first-order differential equation for water temperature, primarily forced by a seasonally varying external term (mainly related to solar radiation) and an exchange term explicitly depending on the difference between air and water temperatures. Assuming annual sinusoidal cycles of the main heat flux components at the atmosphere-lake interface, eight parameters (some of them can be disregarded, though) are identified, which can be calibrated if two temporal series of air and water temperature are available. We note that such a calibration is supported by the physical interpretation of the parameters, which provide good initial

  17. Antarctic Tourism and Maritime Heritage

    OpenAIRE

    Basberg, Bjørn L.

    2010-01-01

    Maritime activities in the Antarctic region date back to the eighteenth century. They evolved from exploration and discoveries to commercial enterprises, especially sealing, whaling and fishing. Antarctic tourism is a much more recent phenomenon, developing mainly from the 1950s and 1960s. Today over 40,000 tourists visit the Antarctic annually, most of them on cruise ships. This essay reviews the historical development of this tourism. The focus is on how maritime heritage has been treated a...

  18. Estimating mercury concentrations and fluxes in the water column and sediment of Lake Ontario with HERMES model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ethier, Adrienne L M; Atkinson, Joseph F; Depinto, Joseph V; Lean, David R S

    2012-02-01

    The HERMES model-predicted Hg concentrations and fluxes in Lake Ontario were based on twelve lake and drainage basin variables (i.e., water temperature, precipitation rate, air Hg, surface area, mean depth, water volume, water inflow rate, inflow water Hg, inflow and lake suspended particulate matter, air-water and water-air mass transfer coefficients, and sedimentation rate). The HERMES model-predicted Hg water and surface sediment concentrations were found to be significantly correlated (±20%) with measured values (r(2) = 0.94, p < 0.0001, n = 13) and mechanistic model predictions (LOTOX2-Hg, r(2) = 0.95, p < 0.0001, n = 10). The predictive capacity of HERMES was previously tested on smaller (≤1 km(2)) lakes in Nova Scotia and Ontario, Canada (i.e., water and sediment Hg concentrations were ±15% of measured data). Results suggest that HERMES could be applicable to a broad range of lake sizes. Uncertainty analyses on HERMES model input variables indicated a larger atmospheric Hg contribution for Lake Ontario when compared to previous predictions for smaller lakes. PMID:21726924

  19. Antarctic science preserve polluted

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simarski, Lynn Teo

    Geophysicists are alarmed at the electromagnetic pollution of a research site in the Antarctic specifically set aside to study the ionosphere and magnetosphere. A private New Zealand communications company called Telecom recently constructed a satellite ground station within the boundaries of this Site of Special Scientific Interest (SSSI), protected since the mid-1970s. The placement of a commercial facility within this site sets an ominous precedent not only for the sanctity of other SSSIs, but also for Specially Protected Areas—preserves not even open to scientific research, such as certain penguin rookeries.The roughly rectangular, one-by-one-half mile site, located at Arrival Heights not far from McMurdo Station, is one of a number of areas protected under the Antarctic treaty for designated scientific activities. Many sites are set aside for geological or biological research, but this is the only one specifically for physical science.

  20. Measurements of 36Cl in Antarctic meteorites and Antarctic ice using a Van de Graaff accelerator

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cosmic-ray produced 36Cl(tsub(1/2) = 3.0 X 105 years) has been measured in four Antarctic meteorites and one sample of Antarctic ice using a tandem Van de Graaff accelerator as an ultrasensitive mass spectrometer with the extremely low background level of 36Cl/Cl -16. Results from this ion counting technique (applied here to extraterrestrial materials for the first time) are used to support a two-stage irradiation model for the Yamato-7301and Allan Hills-76008 meteorites and to show a long terrestrial age (0.7 +- 0.1 m.y.) for Allan Hills-77002. Yamato-7304 has a terrestrial age of less than 0.1 m.y. The 36Cl content of the Antarctic ice sample from the Yamato Mountain area implies that the age of the ice cap at this site is less than one 36Cl half-life. (Auth.)

  1. Predictive mechanistic bioenergetics to model habitat suitability of shellfish culture in coastal lakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rinaldi, A.; Montalto, V.; Manganaro, A.; Mazzola, A.; Mirto, S.; Sanfilippo, M.; Sarà, G.

    2014-05-01

    Quantitative tools based on mechanistic modelling of functional traits able to enhance the sustainability of aquaculture and most other human activities (i.e. reducing the likelihood of detrimental impacts optimising productions), are especially important factors in the decision to site aquaculture facilities in coastal lakes, ponds and lagoons and, in the case of detrimental impact, to adopt mitigation measures. We tested the ability of mechanistic functional trait based models to predict life history traits of cultivable shellfish in shallow coastal lakes. Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) models were run to generate spatially explicit predictions of Mytilus galloprovincialis life history (LH) traits (e.g. body size and fecundity). Using fortnightly data of food supply and hourly data of body temperatures, and exploiting the power of mechanistic rules, we estimated the amount of faeces ejected by a fixed quantity of organisms cultivated in two shallow Southern Mediterranean (Sicily) lakes. These differed in terms of temperature and food density, implying large differences in life history traits of mussels in the two study areas. This information could help facilitate the selection of sites where environmental conditions are more suitable for aquaculture and contextually compatible with sustainability. The validation exercise obtained by comparing the predicted and observed data was nearly consistent. Therefore, a mechanistic functional traits-based model seems able to capture the link between habitat characteristics and functional traits of organisms, delineating the fundamental portion of an ecological niche, the possibility of predicting LH traits and potential ecological applications in the management of natural coastal resources.

  2. Verification of a model for predicting the effect of inconstant temperature on embryonic development of lake whitefish (Coregonus clupeaformis)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berlin, William H.; Brooke, L.T.; Stone, Linda J.

    1977-01-01

    Eggs stripped from lake whitefish (Coregonus clupeaformis) spawning in Lake Michigan were incubated in the laboratory at temperatures similar to those on whitefish spawning grounds in Lake Michigan during December-April. Observed times from fertilization to attainment of each of 21 developmental stages were used to test a model that predicts the rate of development at daily fluctuating temperatures; the model relates rate of development for any given stage j, expressed as the reciprocal of time (Rj), to temperature (T). The generalized equation for a developmental stage is Rj = abTcT??.

  3. Biogenic-chemical stratified lake model for the origin of oil shale of the Green River Formation: alternative to the Playa-lake model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Desborough, G.A.

    1978-07-01

    A model is proposed which involves biogenic Mg enrichment, a stratified lake environment, and authigenic growth of minerals that led to the development of oil shale in the lacustrine Green River Formation. The chemistry and mineralogy of Ca--Mg--fe carbonates and other minerals in oil shale are consistent with an authigenic origin. The higher content of magnesium with respect to calcium in kerogen-rich rocks is probably due to the preferential concentration of magnesium with respect to calcium by blue-green algae whose remains released these cations after accumulation on the lake bottom. These elements were available for incorporation in Ca--Mg--Fe carbonates which crystallized in lake-bottom muds, while degradation of admixed algal material led to the development of kerogen. In modern lacustrine environments, primary and secondary Ca--Mg--Fe carbonate development and stability in terms of geologic time are consistent with authigenic development of the Ca--Mg--Fe carbonates present in Green River Formation oil shale. Iron is a significant component of these rhombohedral carbonate assemblages in oil shale, and thus it limits interpretations of origin of oil shale in the context of CaCO3--MgCO3 equilibria. The variable composition and variety of Ca--Mg--Fe carbonates in oil shale also prohibits interpretations in terms of CaCO--MgCO3 equilibrium diagrams. Greater amounts of mineral matter in time-stratigraphic intervals in the depositional center of the Piceance Creek basin, compared with the basin margins, suggest strongly that authigenic mineral development is more important than detrital accumulation of minerals in the richer oil-shale sequences.

  4. Comparison of three nonlinear models to describe long-term tag shedding by lake trout

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fabrizio, Mary C.; Swanson, Bruce L.; Schram, Stephen T.; Hoff, Michael H.

    1996-01-01

    We estimated long-term tag-shedding rates for lake trout Salvelinus namaycush using two existing models and a model we developed to account for the observed permanence of some tags. Because tag design changed over the course of the study, we examined tag-shedding rates for three types of numbered anchor tags (Floy tags FD-67, FD-67C, and FD-68BC) and an unprinted anchor tag (FD-67F). Lake trout from the Gull Island Shoal region, Lake Superior, were double-tagged, and subsequent recaptures were monitored in annual surveys conducted from 1974 to 1992. We modeled tag-shedding rates, using time at liberty and probabilities of tag shedding estimated from fish released in 1974 and 1978–1983 and later recaptured. Long-term shedding of numbered anchor tags in lake trout was best described by a nonlinear model with two parameters: an instantaneous tag-shedding rate and a constant representing the proportion of tags that were never shed. Although our estimates of annual shedding rates varied with tag type (0.300 for FD-67, 0.441 for FD-67C, and 0.656 for FD-68BC), differences were not significant. About 36% of tags remained permanently affixed to the fish. Of the numbered tags that were shed (about 64%), two mechanisms contributed to tag loss: disintegration and dislodgment. Tags from about 11% of recaptured fish had disintegrated, but most tags were dislodged. Unprinted tags were shed at a significant but low rate immediately after release, but the long-term, annual shedding rate of these tags was only 0.013. Compared with unprinted tags, numbered tags dislodged at higher annual rates; we hypothesized that this was due to the greater frictional drag associated with the larger cross-sectional area of numbered tags.

  5. A dynamic predator - prey model for fishery resources: a case of Lake Kasumigaura

    OpenAIRE

    Y Kitabatake

    1982-01-01

    A dynamic model for fishery resources with predator - prey relationships is constructed based on observational data and research findings for Lake Kasumigaura, Japan. The analysis of the stationary state as well as the sensitivity analysis shows that the use of diesel-powered trawling, which enables the large-scale catch of prey species in comparison with the traditional method of sailing trawling, may lead to the extinction of predator as well as prey species once the trawling efficiency in ...

  6. Polarimetric SAR modelling of a two-layer structure: A case study based on subarctic lakes

    OpenAIRE

    Al-Kahachi, Noora

    2014-01-01

    The work contributes to the interpretation of quad polarimetric SAR data over (shallow) subarctic lakes, on the purpose of investigating SAR capabilities in revealing facts about the subsurface and the inhomogeneities within the ice layer which are dominated mainly by methane bubbles. For this, a model for the polarimetric backscattering from a two-layer structure observed by a fully polarimetric side looking synthetic aperture radar at low frequency (L-Band) is developed. The upper layer ...

  7. Modelling and interpretation of polarimetric scattering from sub-arctic lakes at L-Band

    OpenAIRE

    Al-Kahachi, Noora; Papathanassiou, Konstantinos

    2013-01-01

    The presented work contributes to the interpretation of fully polarimetric SAR (Synthetic Aperture Radar) data over (shallow) sub-arctic lakes, on the purpose of investigating SAR capabilities in revealing facts about the subsurface and the inhomogeneities within the ice layer which are dominated mainly by methane bubbles. A model for the polarimetric backscattering from a two layer structure observed by a fully polarimetric side looking synthetic aperture radar at low frequencies (L-Band) is...

  8. Freezing of lakes on the Swiss Plateau 1865-2100: combining long-term observations with modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huss, Matthias; Hendricks Franssen, Harrie-Jan; Keller, Felix; Funk, Martin; Hoelzle, Martin

    2016-04-01

    The frequency of lake freeze-up on the Swiss plateau is a sensitive indicator of changes in central European winter climate. Whereas smaller and more shallow lakes are reported to completely freeze in more than 50% of the winters, large and deep lakes like Bodensee and Zurichsee only froze one to very few times during the 20th century. The ice cover lasted between some days and up to three months. The periodic freezing of lakes on the Swiss plateau exerts considerable public attraction and is, in some cases, even an economic factor. In this study, we rely on an exceptional data set presented by Hendricks-Franssen and Scherrer (2008) providing complete series of freeze-up events for a dozen lakes on the Swiss plateau since 1901 based on direct observations. A new physically-based 1-D model for the energy balance and the thermodynamics of lake ice is presented and validated against the long-term observations. The model is driven with measured meteorological data as well as with results of 10 regional climate models. We apply the model to compute continuous series of freeze-up events between 1865 and 2100 for 14 Swiss lakes. In addition, the model calculates the time evolution of the ice thickness and the corresponding bearing capacity. We discuss the potential of the model for simulating lake freeze-up events over the last century in connection with the direct observations and simplified approaches for estimating lake ice formation. Changes in freezing frequency are analysed over a period of more than 200 years extending from the beginning of the instrumental record into the future. Until 2050, freezing is still possible even for medium-sized lakes in extreme winters. Towards the end of the 21st century, however, lakes on the Swiss plateau are unlikely to freeze during winter with the exception of rare events on small lakes. For an additional study site located at higher elevation in the Alps the model predicts annual freezing until 2100 but with strongly reduced

  9. Ice-Covered Lakes in Gale Crater Mars: The Cold and Wet Hypothesis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kling, Alexandre; Haberle, Robert; McKay, Christopher P.; Bristow, Thomas

    2016-10-01

    Recent geological discoveries from the Mars Science Laboratory provide evidence that Gale crater may have intermittently hosted a fluvio-lacustine environment during the Hesperian, with individual lakes lasting for a period of tens to hundreds of thousands of years. (Grotzinger et al., Science, 350 (6257), 2015). Estimates of the CO2 content of the atmosphere at the time the Gale sediments formed are far less than needed by any climate model to warm early Mars (Bristow et al., Geology, submitted), given the low solar energy input available at Mars 3.5 Gya. We have therefore explored the possibility that the lakes in Gale during the Hesperian were perennially covered with ice using the Antarctic Lakes as an analog. Using our best estimate for the annual mean surface temperature at Gale at this time (~230K) we computed the thickness of an ice-covered lake. These thickness range from 10-30 meters depending on the ablation rate and ice transparency and would likely inhibit sediments from entering the lake. Thus, a first conclusion is that the ice must not be too cold. Raising the mean temperature to 245K is challenging, but not quite as hard as reaching 273K. We found that a mean annual temperature of 245K ice thicknesses range from 3-10 meters. These values are comparable to the range of those for the Antarctic lakes (3-6 m), and are not implausible. And they are not so thick that sediments cannot penetrate the ice. For the ice-covered lake hypothesis to work, however, a melt water source is needed. This could come from subaqueous melting of a glacial dam in contact with the lakes (as is the case for Lake Untersee) or from seasonal melt water from nearby glaciers (as is the case for the Dry Valley lakes). More work is needed to better assess these possibilities. However, the main advantage of the ice-covered lake model (and the main reason we pursued it) is that it relaxes the requirement for a long-lived active hydrological cycle involving rainfall and runoff, which

  10. AQUATOX coupled foodweb model for ecosystem risk assessment of Polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) in lake ecosystems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The AQUATOX model considers the direct toxic effects of chemicals and their indirect effects through foodwebs. For this study, the AQUATOX model was applied to evaluating the ecological risk of Polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) in a highly anthropogenically disturbed lake-Baiyangdian Lake. Calibration and validation results indicated that the model can adequately describe the dynamics of 18 biological populations. Sensitivity analysis results suggested that the model is highly sensitive to temperature limitation. PBDEs risk estimate results demonstrate that estimated risk for natural ecosystems cannot be fully explained by single species toxicity data alone. The AQUATOX model could provide a good basis in ascertaining ecological protection levels of “chemicals of concern” for aquatic ecosystems. Therefore, AQUATOX can potentially be used to provide necessary information corresponding to early warning and rapid forecasting of pollutant transport and fate in the management of chemicals that put aquatic ecosystems at risk. - Highlights: • AQUATOX model incorporates direct toxic effects and indirect ecological effects. • Ecological risk of PBDEs was assessed by the AQUATOX model. • The model could help determine ecological threshold of “chemicals of concern”. - Capsule abstract: Application of the AQUATOX model to assess the direct and indirect ecological risk of PBDEs

  11. Antarctic, Sub-Antarctic and cold temperate echinoid database

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Benjamin Pierrat

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available This database includes spatial data of Antarctic, Sub-Antarctic and cold temperate echinoid distribution (Echinodermata: Echinoidea collected during many oceanographic campaigns led in the Southern Hemisphere from 1872 to 2010. The dataset lists occurrence data of echinoid distribution south of 35°S latitude, together with information on taxonomy (from species to genus level, sampling sources (cruise ID, sampling dates, ship names and sampling sites (geographic coordinates and depth. Echinoid occurrence data were compiled from the Antarctic Echinoid Database (David et al., 2005a, which integrates records from oceanographic cruises led in the Southern Ocean until 2003. This database has been upgraded to take into account data from oceanographic cruises led after 2003. The dataset now reaches a total of 6160 occurrence data that have been checked for systematics reliability and consistency. It constitutes today the most complete database on Antarctic and Sub-Antarctic echinoids.

  12. Geochemical and Thermodinamic Modeling of Segara Anak Lake and the 2009 Eruption of Rinjani Volcano, Lombok, Indonesia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Akhmad Solikhin

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available DOI: 10.17014/ijog.v5i4.106Rinjani is the second highest volcano in Indonesia with an elevation of 3726 m above sea level. The steep and highest cone of Rinjani consists mainly of loose pyroclastic ejecta and contains a crater with a few solfataras. The West of this cone is Segara Anak caldera. The western side of the caldera is occupied by a 230 m deep lake, covering an area of 11 km² and its volume was (before the 2009 eruption estimated 1.02 km3. This is probably the largest hot volcanic lake in the world.The lake water is neutral (pH: 7-8 and its chemistry dominated by chlorides and sulfates with a relatively high TDS (Total Dissolved Solids: 2640 mg/l. This unusual TDS as well as the lake surface temperatures (20 - 22°C well above ambient temperatures (14 - 15°C for this altitude, reflect a strong input of hydrothermal fluids. Numerous hot springs are located along the shore at the foot of Barujari volcanic cone. Bathymetric profiles show also several areas with columns of gas bubbles escaping from the lake floor indicating a significant discharge of CO gas into the lake. The mass and energy balance model of Rinjani Crater Lake produce total heat lost value on the average of 1700 MW. Most of the heating periods of the lake occurred when the heat released by the surface of the lake to the atmosphere was lower than the heat supplied from the hydrothermal system. Peaks of heat losses correspond to period of strong winds. Crater lake monitoring can provide a basic information about deep magmatic activity and surface processes that occur in the volcano. The monitoring also contributes to predict the next eruption in order to improve mitigation of volcanic eruption. Precursory signals of the May 2009 eruption can be seen from significant changes in the temperature and chemistry of some of the hot springs, the increase of Fe concentrations in spring #54, chemical plume of low pH and dissolved oxygen, acidification of Segara

  13. Determining ecoregional numeric nutrient criteria by stressor-response models in Yungui ecoregion lakes, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huo, Shouliang; Ma, Chunzi; Xi, Beidou; Tong, Zhonghua; He, Zhuoshi; Su, Jing; Wu, Fengchang

    2014-01-01

    The importance of developing numeric nutrient criteria has been recognized to protect the designated uses of water bodies from nutrient enrichment that is associated with broadly occurring levels of nitrogen/phosphorus pollution. The identification and estimation of stressor-response models in aquatic ecosystems has been shown to be useful in the determination of nutrient criteria. In this study, three methods based on stressor-response relationships were applied to determine nutrient criteria for Yungui ecoregion lakes with respect to total phosphorus (TP), total nitrogen (TN), and planktonic chlorophyll a (Chl a). Simple linear regression (SLR) models were established to provide an estimate of the relationship between a response variable and a stressor. Multiple linear regressions were used to simultaneously estimate the effect of TP and TN on Chl a. A morphoedaphic index (MEI) was applied to derive nutrient criteria using data from Yungui ecoregion lakes, which were considered as areas with less anthropogenic influences. Nutrient criteria, as determined by these three methods, showed broad agreement for all parameters. The ranges of numeric nutrient criteria for Yungui ecoregion lakes were determined as follows: TP 0.008-0.010 mg/L and TN 0.140-0.178 mg/L. The stressor-response analysis described will be of benefit to support countries in their numeric criteria development programs and to further the goal of reducing nitrogen/phosphorus pollution in China.

  14. USE OF POM AND ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS IN THE THREEDIMENSIONAL MODELING OF LAKES : GOKPINAR DAM RESERVOIR AS A CASE STUDY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mahmut FIRAT

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available The circulation pattern in lakes and reservoirs varies according to many external factors. In situ measurement of the occuring flow pattern in every point of the lake is a very costly and hard task. For this reason, models determining the velocities and surface fluctuations are developed by using computers. The use of these models enables the generation of the foundation for the prediction of possible environmental problems and water pollution concentrations. Today, three dimensional models are widely used in the modelling of lakes and reservoirs. In this study, the velocity profiles and surface fluctuation values generated under various wind speed and directions at some sections in Gokpinar Lake in Denizli are obtained by applying artificial neural networks (ANN on the results of three dimensional hydrodynamic model of the lake made with Princeton Ocean Model (POM. The developed ANN model is applied to the same sections for different wind conditions and it is found that the results are in accordance with the results of POM. As a result of the comparisons of the models, the superiorities of the models on each other at the model generation and solution phases are determined and mentioned.

  15. On Evaluating circulation and temperature stratification under changing water levels in Lake Mead with a 3D hydrodynamic model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Y.; Acharya, K.; Chen, D.; Stone, M.; Yu, Z.; Young, M.; Zhu, J.; Shafer, D. S.; Warwick, J. J.

    2009-12-01

    Sustained drought in the western United States since 2000 has led to a significant drop (about 35 meters) in the water level of Lake Mead, the largest reservoir by volume in United States. The drought combined with rapid urban development in southern Nevada and emergence of invasive species has threatened the water quality and ecological processes in Lake Mead. A three-dimensional hydrodynamic model, Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code (EFDC), was applied to investigate lake circulation and temperature stratification in parts of Lake Mead (Las Vegas Bay and Boulder Basin) under changing water levels. Besides the inflow from Las Vegas Wash and the Colorado River, the model considered atmospheric changes as well as the boundary conditions restricted by the operation of Hoover Dam. The model was calibrated and verified by using observed data including water level, velocity, and temperature from 2003 and 2005. The model was applied to study the hydrodynamic processes at water level 366.8 m (year 2000) and at water level 338.2 m (year 2008). The high-stage simulation described the pre-drought lake hydrodynamic processes while the low-stage simulation highlighted the drawdown impact on such processes. The results showed that both inflow and wind-driven mixing process played major roles in the thermal stratification and lake circulation in both cases. However, the atmospheric boundary played a more important role than inflow temperature on thermal stratification of Lake Mead during water level decline. Further, the thermal stratification regime and flow circulation pattern in shallow lake regions (e.g.., the Boulder Basin area) were most impacted. The temperature of the lake at the high-stage was more sensitive to inflow temperatures than at low-stage. Furthermore, flow velocities decreased with the decreasing water level due to reduction in wind impacts, particularly in shallow areas of the lake. Such changes in temperature and lake current due to present drought have a

  16. Analysis of regional rainfall-runoff parameters for the Lake Michigan Diversion hydrological modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soong, David T.; Over, Thomas M.

    2015-01-01

    The Lake Michigan Diversion Accounting (LMDA) system has been developed by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Chicago District (USACE-Chicago) and the State of Illinois as a part of the interstate Great Lakes water regulatory program. The diverted Lake Michigan watershed is a 673-square-mile watershed that is comprised of the Chicago River and Calumet River watersheds. They originally drained into Lake Michigan, but now flow to the Mississippi River watershed via three canals constructed in the Chicago area in the early twentieth century. Approximately 393 square miles of the diverted watershed is ungaged, and the runoff from the ungaged portion of the diverted watershed has been estimated by the USACE-Chicago using the Hydrological Simulation Program-FORTRAN (HSPF) program. The accuracy of simulated runoff depends on the accuracy of the parameter set used in the HSPF program. Nine parameter sets comprised of the North Branch, Little Calumet, Des Plaines, Hickory Creek, CSSC, NIPC, 1999, CTE, and 2008 have been developed at different time periods and used by the USACE-Chicago. In this study, the U.S. Geological Survey and the USACE-Chicago collaboratively analyzed the parameter sets using nine gaged watersheds in or adjacent to the diverted watershed to assess the predictive accuracies of selected parameter sets. Six of the parameter sets, comprising North Branch, Hickory Creek, NIPC, 1999, CTE, and 2008, were applied to the nine gaged watersheds for evaluating their simulation accuracy from water years 1996 to 2011. The nine gaged watersheds were modeled by using the three LMDA land-cover types (grass, forest, and hydraulically connected imperviousness) based on the 2006 National Land Cover Database, and the latest meteorological and precipitation data consistent with the current (2014) LMDA modeling framework.

  17. Development of a multichemical food web model: application to PBDEs in Lake Ellasjoen, Bear Island, Norway.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gandhi, Nilima; Bhavsar, Satyendra P; Gewurtz, Sarah B; Diamond, Miriam L; Evenset, Anita; Christensen, Guttorm N; Gregor, Dennis

    2006-08-01

    A multichemical food web model has been developed to estimate the biomagnification of interconverting chemicals in aquatic food webs. We extended a fugacity-based food web model for single chemicals to account for reversible and irreversible biotransformation among a parent chemical and transformation products, by simultaneously solving mass balance equations of the chemicals using a matrix solution. The model can be applied to any number of chemicals and organisms or taxonomic groups in a food web. The model was illustratively applied to four PBDE congeners, BDE-47, -99, -100, and -153, in the food web of Lake Ellasjøen, Bear Island, Norway. In Ellasjøen arctic char (Salvelinus alpinus), the multichemical model estimated PBDE biotransformation from higher to lower brominated congeners and improved the correspondence between estimated and measured concentrations in comparison to estimates from the single-chemical food web model. The underestimation of BDE-47, even after considering bioformation due to biotransformation of the otherthree congeners, suggests its formation from additional biotransformation pathways not considered in this application. The model estimates approximate values for congener-specific biotransformation half-lives of 5.7,0.8,1.14, and 0.45 years for BDE-47, -99, -100, and -153, respectively, in large arctic char (S. alpinus) of Lake Ellasjøen. PMID:16913129

  18. Modelling Upwelling Irradiance using Secchi disk depth in lake ecosystems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudio ROSSI

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available A simple model for upwelling irradiance has been developed. The model represents the relationship between Photosynthetically Active Radiation diffuse attenuation coefficients and Secchi disk depth described with a physical-mathematical expression. This physical mathematical expression allows the evaluation of the sub surface upwelling irradiance that was generated by the interaction between downwelling irradiance and the water column. The validation of the relation was performed using experimental data collected from five different aquatic ecosystems at different latitudes, solar elevations and irradiance levels. We found a good linear, positive correlation between the theoretical and measured upwelling irradiance (R2 = 0.96. The residues were well distributed, around the null value, according a Gaussian curve (R2 = 0.92. The results confirm the importance and the versatility of the Secchi disk measurements for aquatic optics.

  19. A DPSIR model for ecological security assessment through indicator screening: a case study at Dianchi Lake in China.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhen Wang

    Full Text Available Given the important role of lake ecosystems in social and economic development, and the current severe environmental degradation in China, a systematic diagnosis of the ecological security of lakes is essential for sustainable development. A Driving-force, Pressure, Status, Impact, and Risk (DPSIR model, combined with data screening for lake ecological security assessment was developed to overcome the disadvantages of data selection in existing assessment methods. Correlation and principal component analysis were used to select independent and representative data. The DPSIR model was then applied to evaluate the ecological security of Dianchi Lake in China during 1988-2007 using an ecological security index. The results revealed a V-shaped trend. The application of the DPSIR model with data screening provided useful information regarding the status of the lake's ecosystem, while ensuring information efficiency and eliminating multicollinearity. The modeling approach described here is practical and operationally efficient, and provides an attractive alternative approach to assess the ecological security of lakes.

  20. Forecasting effects of climate change on Great Lakes fisheries: models that link habitat supply to population dynamics can help

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Michael L.; Shuter, Brian J.; Zhao, Yingming; Stockwell, Jason D.

    2006-01-01

    Future changes to climate in the Great Lakes may have important consequences for fisheries. Evidence suggests that Great Lakes air and water temperatures have risen and the duration of ice cover has lessened during the past century. Global circulation models (GCMs) suggest future warming and increases in precipitation in the region. We present new evidence that water temperatures have risen in Lake Erie, particularly during summer and winter in the period 1965–2000. GCM forecasts coupled with physical models suggest lower annual runoff, less ice cover, and lower lake levels in the future, but the certainty of these forecasts is low. Assessment of the likely effects of climate change on fish stocks will require an integrative approach that considers several components of habitat rather than water temperature alone. We recommend using mechanistic models that couple habitat conditions to population demographics to explore integrated effects of climate-caused habitat change and illustrate this approach with a model for Lake Erie walleye (Sander vitreum). We show that the combined effect on walleye populations of plausible changes in temperature, river hydrology, lake levels, and light penetration can be quite different from that which would be expected based on consideration of only a single factor.

  1. Precipitation regimes in the Levant during the Holocene inferred from Dead Sea lake levels and stochastic modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morin, Efrat; Ryb, Tamar; Gavrieli, Ittai; Enzel, Yehouda

    2016-04-01

    The Dead Sea is a terminal lake of one of the largest watersheds in the Levant (~43,000 square km), draining sub-humid to hyperarid climate zones. The large size of the watershed and the synchronous regional pattern of annual precipitation are the main reasons that the Dead Sea lake levels are good proxies for the Levant precipitation. Since the mid-1960s intensive water diversions from this watershed caused a dramatic human-induced level drop (currently >1 m/year). Holocene lake levels were used to infer regional precipitation regimes. Previous studies have associated lake level rises and drops with past wet and dry periods in the region, but their quantitative assessment remains a challenge. Moreover, the attributing of lake levels alterations to changes in precipitation regime still misses natural precipitation variability and there is a need to identify and separate their effects. The current study confronts these basic challenges that underlie the transfer of proxy to climatic parameter procedures. It uses here a unique stochastic framework under which we link precipitation regime with the Dead Sea lake levels, considering changes and trends in both mean and variance. Then we infer Levant precipitation regime during the Holocene. The present mean and variance of annual precipitation and lake levels are represented by (a) Kfar Giladi rain station, determined as the best correlated with natural Dead Sea lake level changes, and, (b) using a water balance model; this allowed simulating mean and variance of annual lake levels. Stochastic simulations included scenarios of changes in precipitation regime considering both constant and trended mean annual precipitation. We assessed probabilities of obtaining specific rises and drops, derived from reconstructed Holocene lake levels, under diverse scenarios. The results suggest that late Holocene precipitation regime could be governed by periods of increasing and decreasing trends of mean annual precipitation in the

  2. Modelling reversibility of Central European mountain lakes from acidification: Part I - the Bohemian forest

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Majer

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available A dynamic, process-based acidification model, MAGIC7, has been applied to three small, strongly acidified lakes in the Bohemian Forest, the Czech Republic. The model was calibrated for a set of experimental records on lake water composition over the 1984–2000 period, and produced hindcast concentrations that compared well, even with older (40-year irregular determinations of nitrate, chloride and pH. Water and soil chemistry forecasts up to 2050 were based on reductions in S and N emissions presupposed by the Gothenburg Protocol. Modelled sulphate and chloride concentrations were predicted to decrease to the levels at the beginning of the 20th century by 2050. The lake water carbonate buffering system is predicted to be re-established in only two lakes (Cerné and Plešné, with current soil base saturations of 12-15%. Concentrations of ionic aluminium species decreased sharply, from 110 μeq l-1 in the mid-1980s to the current ~40 μeq l-1, and were predicted to decrease below 10 μeq l-1 in the 2020s. Diatom-inferred pH in pre-industrial times was substantially lower than modelled pH. It is suggested that the diatom pH, based almost entirely on non-planktonic species, is biased by inwash of diatoms from more acidic tributaries into the sediment of these small lakes. Generally significant results can be summarised as follows: (1 Simulated sulphate levels agree well with observations during acidification progress and retreat only for values of soil SO42- adsorption capacity three to six times (20 to 40 μeq kg-1 higher than those found experimentally. This implies a further mechanism of S retention and release in addition to physical sulphate adsorption to Fe and Al oxides of soils. (2 The catchments’ ability to retain deposited N appeared to decline after ~1950 but this was not connected with a sufficient change in the C:N ratio of the soils. Agreement between modelled and observed concentrations of nitrate was therefore achieved by

  3. Bode Analysis and Modeling of Water Level Change in the Great Lakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tebbens, S. F.; Smigelski, J. R.; Barton, C. C.

    2009-12-01

    Power Spectral Density calculated from a fast Fourier transform expresses a time series in terms of power in the corresponding frequency domain. The power-scaling exponent ( β ) is determined by fitting a power function to a log-log plot of frequency ( f ) or period ( 1/f ) versus power in the frequency domain. Anthropogenic and natural fluctuations including precipitation, runoff, snowmelt, water retention time, evaporation, and outflow all contribute to changes in water levels recorded in the Great Lakes. In this study, NOAA verified hourly water level data ranging from 20 to 30 years in duration for five stations in Lake Michigan and four stations in Lake Superior were analyzed. Water level time series in the Great Lakes are found to exhibit power law scaling and are thus self-affine over four distinct period ranges, each with a different beta value. With this information, a model of the original time series may be generated using an approach which draws from concepts in control theory and feedback systems. Bode Analysis can be applied in the frequency domain to explain variations in the scaling behavior ( β ) of water level data by examining the patterns of change in amplitude and phase across frequencies. A Bode magnitude plot of the system is created from the data of power versus frequency converting the amplitude to 20log dB magnitude. A transfer function representing the output of the system divided by the input is then derived based on the data using Laplace transforms and solved for magnitude and phase. Bode analysis results in a series of two transfer function equations, one for magnitude and one for phase, for each distinct beta value over the specified period range. The type of differential equation controls the slope ( β ) while the constant (k) in the differential equation controls the position (period) of transitions in scaling behavior (i.e., corner frequencies or inflection points) and are characteristics of the system. Combining the transfer

  4. Simulation models for water pollution in rivers and lakes; Suishitsu osen no simulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hosomi, M. [Tokyo Univ. of Agriculture and Technology, Koganei (Japan). Faculty of Technology

    1996-11-05

    Rivers, lakes, and dam lakes are taken up as fields related to urban environment, and simulation models for water pollution control is introduced which are considered to be important for controlling water quality. In connection with rivers, a model showing the relationship between organic contamination and DO (dissolved oxygen) as well as an analyzed example of the use of continuous data of easy-to-measure DO are introduced. DO and pH in urban rivers sometimes exceed the environmental standards in the dry season. The cause is greater effect of biofilm adhesion at the river bed due to elongated staying time, and the establishment of the maintained river flow rate must be reviewed. One of the problems of ecological models is the deficiency of the data for the verification of the ecological models, and arrangement to solve the problem is required. Although it is admitted that simulation of phytoplankton in which neural network is employed has just started, it is expected to become an effective means for the study of phenomena which can not be elucidated by the modeling using normal numeric models. 7 refs., 13 figs.

  5. Impact of partly ice-free Lake Ladoga on temperature and cloudiness in an anticyclonic winter situation – a case study using a limited area model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kalle Eerola

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available At the end of January 2012, a low-level cloud from partly ice-free Lake Ladoga caused very variable 2-m temperatures in Eastern Finland. The sensitivity of the High Resolution Limited Area Model (HIRLAM to the lake surface conditions was tested in this winter anticyclonic situation. The lake appeared to be (incorrectly totally covered by ice when the lake surface was described with its climatology. Both parametrisation of the lake surface state by using a lake model integrated to the NWP system and objective analysis based on satellite observations independently resulted in a correct description of the partly ice-free Lake Ladoga. In these cases, HIRLAM model forecasts were able to predict cloud formation and its movement as well as 2-m temperature variations in a realistic way. Three main conclusions were drawn. First, HIRLAM could predict the effect of Lake Ladoga on local weather, when the lake surface state was known. Second, the current parametrisation methods of air–surface interactions led to a reliable result in conditions where the different physical processes (local surface processes, radiation and turbulence were not strong, but their combined effect was important. Third, these results encourage work for a better description of the lake surface state in NWP models by fully utilising satellite observations, combined with advanced lake parametrisation and data assimilation methods.

  6. Three-dimensional hydrodynamic and water quality model for TMDL development of Lake Fuxian, China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Lei Zhao; Xiaoling Zhang; Yong Liu; Bin He; Xiang Zhu; Rui Zou; Yuanguan Zhu

    2012-01-01

    Lake Fuxian is the largest deep freshwater lake in China.Although its average water quality meets Class Ⅰ of the China National Water Quality Standard(CNWQS),i.e.,GB3838-2002,monitoring data indicate that the water quality approaches the Class Ⅱ threshold in some areas.Thus it is urgent to reduce the watershed load through the total maximum daily load(TMDL)program.A three-dimensional hydrodynamic and water quality model was developed for Lake Fuxian,simulating flow circulation and pollutant fate and transport.The model development process consists of several steps,including grid generation,initial and boundary condition configurations,and model calibration processes.The model accurately reproduced the observed water surface elevation,spatiotemporal variations in temperature,and total nitrogen(TN),total phosphorus(TP),and chemical oxygen demand(COD)concentrations,suggesting a reasonable numerical representation of the prototype system for further TMDL analyses.The TMDL was calculated using two interpretations of the water quality standards for Class Ⅰ of the CNWQS based on the maximum instantaneous surface and annual average surface water concentrations.Analysis of the first scenario indicated that the TN,TP and COD loads should be reduced by 66%,68% and 57%,respectively.Water quality was the highest priority; however,local economic development and cost feasibility for load reduction can pose significant issues.In the second interpretation,the model results showed that,under the existing conditions,the average water quality meets the Class Ⅰ standard and therefore load reduction is unnecessary.Future studies are needed to conduct risk and cost assessments for realistic decision-making.

  7. Modelled present and future thaw lake area expansion/contraction trends throughout the continuous permafrost zone

    OpenAIRE

    Mi, Y.; van Huissteden, J; DOLMAN A. J.

    2014-01-01

    Thaw lakes and drained lake basins are a dominant feature of Arctic lowlands. Thaw lakes are a source of the greenhouse gas methane (CH4), which is produced under anaerobic conditions, while drained lake basins are carbon sinks due to sedimentation. Besides feedbacks on climate, the development of thaw lakes due to the melt-out of ground ice and subsequent ground subsidence, can have significant impacts on the regional morphology, hydrology, geophysics and...

  8. HYDROLOGIC MODELLING OF KATSINA-ALA RIVER BASIN: AN EMERGING SCENARIO FROM LAKE NYOS THREAT

    OpenAIRE

    Akinyede, J.O.; R. Babamaaji; M. Vaatough; K. A. Adepoju

    2012-01-01

    Understanding the hydrologic system surrounding crater lakes is of great importance for prevention of flooding damages, conservation of ecological environment, and assessment of socio-economic impact of dam failure on the civilians in the downstream regions. Lake Nyos is a crater lake formed by volcanic activities at the Oku volcanic field on the Cameroon Volcanic Line. It is a freshwater lake with a maximum depth of 200 meter. In 1986, a limnic eruption at the lake emitted 1.6 million tonnes...

  9. Modeling operation of a pumped-storage plant in Lake Suldalsvatn

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Charmasson, Julie [Sintef Energy, Trondheim (Norway)

    2012-07-01

    In a context of climate change, use of renewable energies should highly increase in the coming decades. Existing reservoirs and hydropower plants could be used to balance intermittent energy sources such as wind power and solar energy by pumping water from the downstream reservoirs and storing it in the upstream ones when electricity demand is low, and releasing it to generate electricity in high demand periods. Lake Suldalsvatn, located on the Western coast of Norway, is the lowermost reservoir of Ulla-F#Latin Small Letter O With Stroke#rre, the largest hydropower plants system in Northern Europe. Today, it receives turbinated waters from Kvilldal and Suldal hydro power plants, and supplies water to Hylen power plant. In the future, new operational regimes could include the alternation of pumping phases and production phases through installation of a new pumped-storage power plant. Lake Bl#Latin Small Letter A With Ring Above#sj#Latin Small Letter O With Stroke# located at a higher elevation could be used as upstream reservoir to store water pumped from Lake Suldalsvatn. This report describes results of a study investigating changes in temperature and current distribution in Lake Suldalsvatn under pumped-storage regime. The 3D-hydrodynamic model GEMSS was used to calculate flow velocity, water level fluctuations, and water temperature for two different pumped-storage scenarios. The results of simulations show that intense vertical mixing through the water column is expected during operation of a pumped-storage power plant, leading to colder temperature in the downstream river Suldalsl#Latin Small Letter A With Ring Above#gen during summer and autumn. In addition strong currents appear next to the pumped-storage plant.(author)

  10. Modelling catchment hydrological responses in a Himalayan Lake as a function of changing land use and land cover

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Bazigha Badar; Shakil A Romshoo; M A Khan

    2013-04-01

    In this paper, we evaluate the impact of changing land use/land cover (LULC) on the hydrological processes in Dal lake catchment of Kashmir Himalayas by integrating remote sensing, simulation modeling and extensive field observations. Over the years, various anthropogenic pressures in the lake catchment have significantly altered the land system, impairing, \\texttit {inter-alia}, sustained biotic communities and water quality of the lake. The primary objective of this paper was to help a better understanding of the LULC change, its driving forces and the overall impact on the hydrological response patterns. Multi-sensor and multi-temporal satellite data for 1992 and 2005 was used for determining the spatio-temporal dynamics of the lake catchment. Geographic Information System (GIS) based simulation model namely Generalized Watershed Loading Function (GWLF) was used to model the hydrological processes under the LULC conditions. We discuss spatio-temporal variations in LULC and identify factors contributing to these variations and analyze the corresponding impacts of the change on the hydrological processes like runoff, erosion and sedimentation. The simulated results on the hydrological responses reveal that depletion of the vegetation cover in the study area and increase in impervious and bare surface cover due to anthropogenic interventions are the primary reasons for the increased runoff, erosion and sediment discharges in the Dal lake catchment. This study concludes that LULC change in the catchment is a major concern that has disrupted the ecological stability and functioning of the Dal lake ecosystem.

  11. A coupled two-dimensional hydrodynamic and terrestrial input model to simulate CO2 diffusive emissions from lake systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Wu

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Most lakes worldwide are supersaturated with carbon dioxide (CO2 and consequently act as atmospheric net sources. Since CO2 is a major greenhouse gas (GHG, the accurate estimation of CO2 exchanges at air/water interfaces of aquatic ecosystems is vital in quantifying the carbon budget of aquatic ecosystems overall. To date, lacustrine CO2 emissions are poorly understood, and lake carbon source proportions remain controversial, largely due to a lack of integration between aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems. In this paper a new process-based model (TRIPLEX-Aquatic is introduced incorporating both terrestrial inputs and aquatic biogeochemical processes to estimate diffusive emissions of CO2 from lake systems. The model was built from a two-dimensional hydrological and water quality model coupled with a new lacustrine CO2 diffusive flux model. For calibration and validation purposes, two years of data collected in the field from two small boreal oligotrophic lakes located in Québec (Canada were used to parameterize and test the model by comparing simulations with observations for both hydrodynamic and carbon process accuracy. Model simulations were accordant with field measurements in both calibration and verification. Consequently, the TRIPLEX-Aquatic model was used to estimate the annual mean CO2 diffusive flux and predict terrestrial dissolved organic carbon (DOC impacts on the CO2 budget for both lakes. Results show a significant fraction of the CO2 diffusive flux (~30–45% from lakes was primarily attributable to the input and mineralization of terrestrial DOC, which indicated terrestrial organic matter was the key player in the diffusive flux of CO2 from oligotropical lake systems in Québec, Canada.

  12. Transcriptomics and comparative analysis of three antarctic notothenioid fishes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seung Chul Shin

    Full Text Available For the past 10 to 13 million years, Antarctic notothenioid fish have undergone extraordinary periods of evolution and have adapted to a cold and highly oxygenated Antarctic marine environment. While these species are considered an attractive model with which to study physiology and evolutionary adaptation, they are poorly characterized at the molecular level, and sequence information is lacking. The transcriptomes of the Antarctic fishes Notothenia coriiceps, Chaenocephalus aceratus, and Pleuragramma antarcticum were obtained by 454 FLX Titanium sequencing of a normalized cDNA library. More than 1,900,000 reads were assembled in a total of 71,539 contigs. Overall, 40% of the contigs were annotated based on similarity to known protein or nucleotide sequences, and more than 50% of the predicted transcripts were validated as full-length or putative full-length cDNAs. These three Antarctic fishes shared 663 genes expressed in the brain and 1,557 genes expressed in the liver. In addition, these cold-adapted fish expressed more Ub-conjugated proteins compared to temperate fish; Ub-conjugated proteins are involved in maintaining proteins in their native state in the cold and thermally stable Antarctic environments. Our transcriptome analysis of Antarctic notothenioid fish provides an archive for future studies in molecular mechanisms of fundamental genetic questions, and can be used in evolution studies comparing other fish.

  13. Hydrological modeling of tropical closed Lake Ihotry (SW Madagascar): Sensitivity analysis and implications for paleohydrological reconstructions over the past 4000 years

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vallet-Coulomb, Christine; Gasse, Françoise; Robison, Laurent; Ferry, Luc; Van Campo, Elise; Chalié, Françoise

    2006-11-01

    SummaryLake Ihotry is a closed saline lake extending in the semi-arid southwestern part of the Madagascar Island. Monitoring of lake level and chemistry, rainfall and pan evaporation close to the lake was conducted over more than two years, recording large seasonal variations in both lake area and salinity. In addition, diatom and pollen data from a 4000 years-sediment core showed that hydrological fluctuations of much larger magnitude have occurred in the past. The instrumental record was used to establish the present-day lake water balance and to calibrate a lake level and chloride content model at a daily time step. Sensitivity experiments showed that the present-day lake is very sensitive to rainfall variations, both through direct rainfall on the lake surface and through the local shallow groundwater availability. In the sediment core, diatom data document a wet episode with freshwater conditions from ca. 3300 to 2550-2000 cal. yr, followed by a desiccation trend punctuated by large variations of diatom-inferred salinity between ≈2250 and 1350 cal. yr, and finally the onset towards modern conditions by 700-650 cal. yr. A digital elevation model enabled to quantitatively reconstruct the morphometric parameters of an open lake. These lake area-depth-volume relationships were used in the combined water and chloride balances model to investigate conditions of the freshwater lake, and to simulate short-term oscillations of diatom-inferred salinity and the lake evolution towards its present state. We conclude that whatever the rainfall and/or evaporation changes accounting for, the regional water table evolution was an important factor controlling the long-term lake evolution, through its successive connection/disconnection to the lake.

  14. Numerical modelling of snow and ice thicknesses in Lake Vanajavesi, Finland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhijun Li

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Snow and ice thermodynamics was simulated applying a one-dimensional model for an individual ice season 2008–2009 and for the climatological normal period 1971–2000. Meteorological data were used as the model input. The novel model features were advanced treatment of superimposed ice and turbulent heat fluxes, coupling of snow and ice layers and snow modelled from precipitation. The simulated snow, snow–ice and ice thickness showed good agreement with observations for 2008–2009. Modelled ice climatology was also reasonable, with 0.5 cm d−1 growth in December–March and 2 cm d−1 melting in April. Tuned heat flux from water to ice was 0.5 W m−2. The diurnal weather cycle gave significant impact on ice thickness in spring. Ice climatology was highly sensitive to snow conditions. Surface temperature showed strong dependency on thickness of thin ice (<0.5 m, supporting the feasibility of thermal remote sensing and showing the importance of lake ice in numerical weather prediction. The lake ice season responded strongly to air temperature: a level increase by 1 or 5°C decreased the mean length of the ice season by 13 or 78 d (from 152 d and the thickness of ice by 6 or 22 cm (from 50 cm, respectively.

  15. Which processes dominate the uncertainties in the modelling of the transfer of radionuclides in lake ecosystems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    There are several processes governing the transfer of radionuclides in the aquatic environment. These processes are usually lumped together into specific parameters describing those processes, such as distribution coefficients and bioaccumulation factors. One can conclude from the B3 scenario that the differences in results were explained more by difference in the selection of parameter values than they were by differences in assumed lake type or model structure. The parameters contributing most to the uncertainty in model predictions were the distribution coefficient between water and sediment and the fish bioaccumulation factor. In a site specific assessment it may be possible to limit the level of consideration necessary for each process according to lake type, the chemical and physical characteristics of the radionuclides released. In the B5 scenario it was found that no new processes were identified in spite of the site specific data given. However most users changed their model according to the new information given. The A5 scenario showed that the predictions were in fairly good agreement with the observed values. Other results from this study are the importance of including resuspension, chemical form. Predictions of concentration of cesium in fish were performed by applying a constant bioaccumulation factor approach or a dynamic modelling approach. It showed that it was necessary to apply the dynamic modelling to be able to calculate the initial concentration in fish. This was also discussed in Scenario B3 and thus has been verified in Scenario A5. (3 refs., 10 figs.)

  16. Stardust in Antarctic Micrometeorites

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yada, Toru; Floss, Christine; Stadermann, Frank J.; Zinner, E.; Nakamura, T.; Noguchi, T.; Lea, Alan S.

    2008-03-07

    We report the discovery of presolar silicate, oxide (hibonite) and (possibly) SiC grains from four Antarctic micrometeorites. The oxygen isotopic compositions of the eighteen presolar silicate (and one oxide) grains found are consistent with those observed previously in primitive meteorites and interplanetary dust particles, and indicate origins in oxygen-rich red giant or asymptotic giant branch stars. Four grains with anomalous C isotopic compositions were also detected. 12C/13C as well as Si ratios are similar to those of mainstream SiC grains; the N isotopic composition of one grain is also consistent with a mainstream SiC classification. Presolar silicate grains were found in three of the seven AMMs studied, and are heterogeneously distributed within these micrometeorites. Fourteen of the 18 presolar silicate grains and 3 of the 4 C-anomalous grains were found within one AMM, T98G8. The presence of magnesiowüstite, which forms mainly through the decomposition of carbonates, in AMMs without presolar silicates, and its absence in the presolar silicate-bearing micrometeorites, suggests that parent body processes (specifically aqueous alteration) may determine the presence or absence of presolar silicates in Antarctic micrometeorites.

  17. Three-dimensional lake water quality modeling: sensitivity and uncertainty analyses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Missaghi, Shahram; Hondzo, Miki; Melching, Charles

    2013-11-01

    Two sensitivity and uncertainty analysis methods are applied to a three-dimensional coupled hydrodynamic-ecological model (ELCOM-CAEDYM) of a morphologically complex lake. The primary goals of the analyses are to increase confidence in the model predictions, identify influential model parameters, quantify the uncertainty of model prediction, and explore the spatial and temporal variabilities of model predictions. The influence of model parameters on four model-predicted variables (model output) and the contributions of each of the model-predicted variables to the total variations in model output are presented. The contributions of predicted water temperature, dissolved oxygen, total phosphorus, and algal biomass contributed 3, 13, 26, and 58% of total model output variance, respectively. The fraction of variance resulting from model parameter uncertainty was calculated by two methods and used for evaluation and ranking of the most influential model parameters. Nine out of the top 10 parameters identified by each method agreed, but their ranks were different. Spatial and temporal changes of model uncertainty were investigated and visualized. Model uncertainty appeared to be concentrated around specific water depths and dates that corresponded to significant storm events. The results suggest that spatial and temporal variations in the predicted water quality variables are sensitive to the hydrodynamics of physical perturbations such as those caused by stream inflows generated by storm events. The sensitivity and uncertainty analyses identified the mineralization of dissolved organic carbon, sediment phosphorus release rate, algal metabolic loss rate, internal phosphorus concentration, and phosphorus uptake rate as the most influential model parameters.

  18. Satellite magnetic anomalies of the Antarctic crust

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. E. Alsdorf

    2000-06-01

    Full Text Available Spatially and temporally static crustal magnetic anomalies are contaminated by static core field effects above spherical harmonic degree 12 and dynamic, large-amplitude external fields. To extract crustal magnetic anomalies from the measurements of NASA's Magsat mission, we separate crustal signals from both core and external field effects. In particular, we define Magsat anomalies relative to the degree 11 field and use spectral correlation theory to reduce them for external field effects. We obtain a model of Antarctic crustal thickness by comparing the region's terrain gravity effects to free-air gravity anomalies derived from the Earth Gravity Model 1996 (EGM96. To separate core and crustal magnetic effects, we obtain the pseudo-magnetic effect of the crustal thickness variations from their gravity effect via Poisson's theorem for correlative potentials. We compare the pseudo-magnetic effect of the crustal thickness variations to field differences between degrees 11 and 13 by spectral correlation analysis. We thus identify and remove possible residual core field effects in the Magsat anomalies relative to the degree 11 core field. The resultant anomalies reflect possible Antarctic contrasts due both to crustal thickness and intracrustal variations of magnetization. In addition, they provide important constraints on the geologic interpretation of aeromagnetic survey data, such as are available for the Weddell Province. These crustal anomalies also may be used to correct for long wavelength errors in regional compilations of near-surface magnetic survey data. However, the validity of these applications is limited by the poor quality of the Antarctic Magsat data that were obtained during austral Summer and Fall when south polar external field activity was maximum. Hence an important test and supplement for the Antarctic crustal Magsat anomaly map will be provided by the data from the recently launched Ørsted mission, which will yield coverage

  19. Metazoan Parasites of Antarctic Fishes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oğuz, Mehmet Cemal; Tepe, Yahya; Belk, Mark C; Heckmann, Richard A; Aslan, Burçak; Gürgen, Meryem; Bray, Rodney A; Akgül, Ülker

    2015-06-01

    To date, there have been nearly 100 papers published on metazoan parasites of Antarctic fishes, but there has not yet been any compilation of a species list of fish parasites for this large geographic area. Herein, we provide a list of all documented occurrences of monogenean, cestode, digenean, acanthocephalan, nematode, and hirudinean parasites of Antarctic fishes. The list includes nearly 250 parasite species found in 142 species of host fishes. It is likely that there are more species of fish parasites, which are yet to be documented from Antarctic waters.

  20. Late Pliocene lakes and soils: a data – model comparison for the analysis of climate feedbacks in a warmer world

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. J. Pound

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Based on a synthesis of geological data we have reconstructed the global distribution of Late Pliocene soils and lakes which are then used as boundary conditions in a series of model experiments using the Hadley Centre General Circulation Model (HadCM3 and the BIOME4 mechanistic vegetation model. By combining our novel soil and lake reconstructions with a fully coupled climate model we are able to explore the feedbacks of soils and lakes on the climate of the Late Pliocene. Our experiments reveal regionally confined changes of local climate and vegetation in response to the new boundary conditions. The addition of Late Pliocene soils has the largest influence on surface air temperatures, with notable increases in Australia, southern North Africa and Asia. The inclusion of Late Pliocene lakes generates a significant increase in precipitation in central Africa, as well as seasonal increases in the Northern Hemisphere. When combined, the feedbacks on climate from Late Pliocene lakes and soils improve the data to model fit in western North America and southern North Africa.

  1. Modeling glacier beds in the Austrian Alps: How many lakes will form in future?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koehler, Dominik; Geilhausen, Martin; Linsbauer, Andreas

    2014-05-01

    Glacial retreat exposes landscapes with relief characteristics greatly differing from the former ice covered surfaces. If glacial retreat exposes natural basins capable of forming proglacial lakes, then the downstream hydrologic and geomorphic systems in such catchments will be significantly altered due to discharge modifications, sediment trapping, decoupling effects and long term sediment storage (e.g. Geilhausen et al. 2013). Further implications are related to hydropower management, tourism and natural hazards. Consequently, sound knowledge of present day glacier beds ("proglacial zones of tomorrow") and in particular the total number, locations and characteristics of overdeepenings are of importance. For Austria, however, this important information about significant future changes of high alpine regions is yet missing. An interdisciplinary research project is currently in preparation to close this gap. This paper presents results of a pilot study. We used a novel GIS-based approach (GlabTop, cf. Linsbauer et al. 2012) to compute approximate glacier beds in the Austrian Alps. GlabTop ('Glacier bed Topography') is based on an empirical relation between average basal shear stress and elevation range of individual glaciers and makes use of digital elevation models (DEM), glacier outlines and branch lines (i.e. a set of lines covering all important glacier branches). DEMs and glacier outlines were derived from the Austrian glacier inventory (1998) and branch lines were manually digitized. The inventory includes 911 glaciers of which 876 (96%) were considered and 35 were excluded due to size restrictions ( 0.01 km²) with the potential of forming proglacial lakes when glacier retreat reveals the bed. The total area and volume of all overdeepenings is approx. 10 km² and 236 Mio m³ respectively and 33 lakes will be larger than 1 km³. A total glacier volume of 16 ± 5 km³ with an average ice thickness of 36 ± 11 m was calculated for 1998. Comparisons with

  2. Application of potassium chloride to a Chernobyl-contaminated lake. Modelling the dynamics of radiocaesium in an aquatic ecosystem and decontamination of fish

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This study tests a whole-lake experiment to reduce the bioaccumulation of radiocaesium (137Cs) in fish in lakes contaminated by the Chernobyl accident. In many lakes in the Chernobyl contaminated areas, radiocaesium activity concentrations in fish are still significantly higher (up to 100 times in some species) than acceptable limits for human consumption. Estimates of the long-term rate of decline of 137Cs in fish in these regions, in the absence of countermeasures, show that radioactivity in fish in some lakes may remain above acceptable consumption limits for a further 50-100 years from the present date. In February 1998 we applied 15 t of potassium chloride to Lake Svyatoe, Kostiukovichy. The addition of potassium chloride fertilizer to the lake resulted in a decrease in activity concentration of 137Cs to approximately 40% of pre-countermeasure values in a number of different fish species. In contrast to Lake Svyatoe, 137Cs activity concentrations in fish from four control lakes showed no systematic decrease over the study period. Simplified models for transfers of 137Cs in lakes successfully 'blind' predicted the changes in 137Cs in water and fish resulting from this major alteration of the potassium concentration of the lake. The experiment represents the first test of a predictive model for the dynamics of radiocaesium in response to a major perturbation in potassium (its major competitor ion) in a whole lake ecosystem

  3. Postglacial uplift of the eastern Gulf of Finland-Lake Ladoga region: models and observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amantov, Aleksey; Fjeldskaar, Willy; Amantova, Marina

    2015-04-01

    The eastern Gulf of Finland - Lake Ladoga region - is at the peripheral part of the Fennoscandian post-glacial uplift. We compared different modeling results for this region with observations, including our revision of geomorphological traces of paleo shorelevel. As in many parts of the general Baltic-White Sea bedrock lowland at the margin of the Fennoscandian Shield, the bedrock landscape was modified by glaciers, but it was also the major controlling factor for the history of glacial grows and decays. First-order landforms of this segment are: Lake Ladoga-Lake Ilmen lowland, Lembolovo High of the Karelic Isthmus and Neva-Gulf of Finland lowland. The range of the bedrock topography is close to 350 m. The landforms reflect different glacial behavior during stadials, with fast movement and strong erosion in northern Ladoga, but passive motion and accumulation around Lembolovo High. The differences influenced the ice sheet and deglaciation history. The shore level displacements in this area are slightly different than westwards in the Baltic area; the shoreline tilts are usually lower in southern-central part of the eastern Gulf of Finland-lake Ladoga region. For example, the shoreline tilts at 11 600 BP in the Baltic Ice Lake in the south-east range from 0.55 to 0.31 m/km. The slope of the Ancylus shoreline varies from 0.12 to 0.18 m/km, increasing to almost the double in the north-western area. Similarly, the Littorina shore level is tilted only 0.08 m/km, rising to 0.14 m/km in the north-west. We have used this data in our high resolution modeling involving glacial isostasy, hydro isostasy, sediment isostasy, and gravity field changes. The mopdeling is based on Earth rheology model with a low-viscosity asthenosphere of thickness less than 150 km and viscosity less than 7.0x10**19 Pa s above a mantle of viscosity 10**21 Pa s, and an effective elastic lithosphere thickness of 30-40 km (flexural rigidity 10**24 Nm). The specific uplift features in the area are

  4. Levels, fluxes and time trends of persistent organic pollutants in Lake Thun, Switzerland: Combining trace analysis and multimedia modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bogdal, Christian [Institute for Chemical and Bioengineering, ETH Zurich, Wolfgang-Pauli-Strasse 10, CH-8093 Zuerich (Switzerland); Empa, Swiss Federal Laboratories for Materials Testing and Research, Uberlandstrasse 129, CH-8600 Duebendorf (Switzerland); Scheringer, Martin, E-mail: scheringer@chem.ethz.ch [Institute for Chemical and Bioengineering, ETH Zurich, Wolfgang-Pauli-Strasse 10, CH-8093 Zuerich (Switzerland); Schmid, Peter [Empa, Swiss Federal Laboratories for Materials Testing and Research, Uberlandstrasse 129, CH-8600 Duebendorf (Switzerland); Blaeuenstein, Markus [Institute for Chemical and Bioengineering, ETH Zurich, Wolfgang-Pauli-Strasse 10, CH-8093 Zuerich (Switzerland); Kohler, Martin [State Food Law Enforcement Authority, Werkhofstrasse 5, CH-4509 Solothurn (Switzerland); Hungerbuehler, Konrad [Institute for Chemical and Bioengineering, ETH Zurich, Wolfgang-Pauli-Strasse 10, CH-8093 Zuerich (Switzerland)

    2010-08-01

    Levels, mass fluxes, and time trends of polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) in Lake Thun, a peri-Alpine lake, are investigated. We present measurements of PBDEs and PCBs in air, lake water, lake sediment, and tributary water. These measurements are combined with a multimedia fate model, based on site-specific environmental parameters from the lake catchment. Measured loadings of PBDEs and PCBs in air and tributaries were used to drive the model. The model satisfactorily reproduces PBDE and PCB congener patterns in water and sediment, but it tends to yield concentrations in water below the measurements and concentrations in sediment exceeding the measurements. A sensitivity analysis reveals that partitioning of PBDEs and PCBs between the aqueous dissolved phase and suspended particulate matter in the water column strongly affects the model results, in particular the concentrations in water and sediment. For lower-brominated PBDEs, approximately 70% and 30% of input into the lake stems from atmospheric deposition and from tributaries, respectively. For heavier PBDEs and all PCBs, rivers appear to deliver the major load (64-92%). Waste water effluents are of minor importance. 50-90% of the total input is buried in the permanent sediment. Sediment burial makes PBDEs and PCBs less available for recycling in the environment, and reduces concentrations in the outflowing river. If use of deca-BDE increases in the future, levels in Lake Thun will follow the same trend. If the use and resulting environmental emissions decrease, concentrations in water will rapidly decline, according to our calculations, while sediment levels will decrease at a considerably slower rate.

  5. Levels, fluxes and time trends of persistent organic pollutants in Lake Thun, Switzerland: Combining trace analysis and multimedia modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Levels, mass fluxes, and time trends of polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) in Lake Thun, a peri-Alpine lake, are investigated. We present measurements of PBDEs and PCBs in air, lake water, lake sediment, and tributary water. These measurements are combined with a multimedia fate model, based on site-specific environmental parameters from the lake catchment. Measured loadings of PBDEs and PCBs in air and tributaries were used to drive the model. The model satisfactorily reproduces PBDE and PCB congener patterns in water and sediment, but it tends to yield concentrations in water below the measurements and concentrations in sediment exceeding the measurements. A sensitivity analysis reveals that partitioning of PBDEs and PCBs between the aqueous dissolved phase and suspended particulate matter in the water column strongly affects the model results, in particular the concentrations in water and sediment. For lower-brominated PBDEs, approximately 70% and 30% of input into the lake stems from atmospheric deposition and from tributaries, respectively. For heavier PBDEs and all PCBs, rivers appear to deliver the major load (64-92%). Waste water effluents are of minor importance. 50-90% of the total input is buried in the permanent sediment. Sediment burial makes PBDEs and PCBs less available for recycling in the environment, and reduces concentrations in the outflowing river. If use of deca-BDE increases in the future, levels in Lake Thun will follow the same trend. If the use and resulting environmental emissions decrease, concentrations in water will rapidly decline, according to our calculations, while sediment levels will decrease at a considerably slower rate.

  6. OSIRIS observations of a tongue of NOx in the lower stratosphere at the Antarctic vortex edge: comparison with a high-resolution simulation from the Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sioris, C.E.; McLinden, C.A.; Rochon, Y.J.; McElroy, C.T. [Environment Canada, Toronto, ON (Canada). Atmospheric Science and Technology Directorate; Chabrillat, S. [Belgian Inst. for Space Aeronomy, Brussels (Belgium); Haley, C.S. [York Univ., Toronto, ON (Canada); Menard, R.; Charron, M. [Environment Canada, Dorval, ON (Canada). Atmospheric Science and Technology Directorate

    2007-11-15

    An optical spectrograph and infrared imager system (OSIRIS) aboard the Odin satellite measures limb-scattered sunlight in the 280 to 810 nm range. This paper addressed the challenge of interpreting nitrogen dioxide (NO{sub 2}) profile observations in the polar lower stratosphere. Interpretations of these profile observations can be facilitated by first converting the measurements to NO{sub x} using a photochemical model in order to compare directly with simulated NO{sub x} from a 3-dimensional chemical transport model such as the Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) model. In this study, GEM was used to simulate a tongue of NO{sub x} observed by OSIRIS as it circulated inside the Antarctic vortex edge. The objective was to clarify one of several OSIRIS observations of enhanced lower stratospheric NO{sub 2} in the Antarctic in early austral spring. Another objective was to demonstrate the variability in lower stratospheric NO{sub x} at polar latitudes due to dynamical processes. Selected NOx profiles of the Antarctic lower stratosphere inferred from OSIRIS NO{sub 2} observations were presented from the austral spring of 2003. A tongue of NOx at 100 hPa was observed, with a concentration typical of the middle stratosphere. GEM simulations revealed that this small-scale tongue of NOx-rich air descended into the lower stratosphere. The tongue was formed as a result of a Rossby wave breaking, transporting NOx from the pole, where larger concentrations had recently appeared, to the edge of the vortex. A detailed illustration of the 3-dimensional structure of the breaking wave was also presented. 17 refs., 1 tab., 10 figs.

  7. OSIRIS observations of a tongue of NOx in the lower stratosphere at the Antarctic vortex edge: comparison with a high-resolution simulation from the Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    An optical spectrograph and infrared imager system (OSIRIS) aboard the Odin satellite measures limb-scattered sunlight in the 280 to 810 nm range. This paper addressed the challenge of interpreting nitrogen dioxide (NO2) profile observations in the polar lower stratosphere. Interpretations of these profile observations can be facilitated by first converting the measurements to NOx using a photochemical model in order to compare directly with simulated NOx from a 3-dimensional chemical transport model such as the Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) model. In this study, GEM was used to simulate a tongue of NOx observed by OSIRIS as it circulated inside the Antarctic vortex edge. The objective was to clarify one of several OSIRIS observations of enhanced lower stratospheric NO2 in the Antarctic in early austral spring. Another objective was to demonstrate the variability in lower stratospheric NOx at polar latitudes due to dynamical processes. Selected NOx profiles of the Antarctic lower stratosphere inferred from OSIRIS NO2 observations were presented from the austral spring of 2003. A tongue of NOx at 100 hPa was observed, with a concentration typical of the middle stratosphere. GEM simulations revealed that this small-scale tongue of NOx-rich air descended into the lower stratosphere. The tongue was formed as a result of a Rossby wave breaking, transporting NOx from the pole, where larger concentrations had recently appeared, to the edge of the vortex. A detailed illustration of the 3-dimensional structure of the breaking wave was also presented. 17 refs., 1 tab., 10 figs

  8. Sensitivity analysis of a bio-optical model for Italian lakes focused on Landsat-8, Sentinel-2 and Sentinel-3

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manzo, Ciro; Bresciani, Mariano; Giardino, Claudia; Braga, Federica; Bassani, Cristiana

    2015-04-01

    In this work, a variance-based procedure was applied to study the sensitivity of a Case-2 bio-optical model which simulates the water reflectance of three Italian lakes - Garda, Mantua and Trasimeno - with different trophic conditions by analysing the main effect of single WQPs and their interactions. The water reflectance was simulated according to a four-components model [Brando and Dekker 2003] considering the SIOPs typical of each lake and the spectral characteristics of three optical sensors, on-board of Landsat-8, Sentinel-2 and Sentinel-3, which can be potentially applied for lakes. Lakes Garda, Mantua and Trasimeno were selected as representative of different trophic levels; for these lakes long-term data of in situ measurements on water quality characteristics were also available. The bio-optical analytical model simulated the subsurface irradiance reflectance R(0-, λ) as a function of absorption and backscattering coefficients (a(λ), bb(λ)) given as a sum of the contribution of water and the water quality parameters. The sensitivity indices of water reflectance for three water types/trophic conditions were calculated decomposing output variance (V) in partial variances which represent the share of V that is explained by the bio-optical model inputs [Saltelli et al., 2010]. The results provide important information relating the sensitivity of the new generation sensors to different trophic statuses, and in particular confirmed that Sentinel-3 water reflectance is sensitive to WQPs in all the trophic conditions investigated.

  9. A paleomagnetic study of the Antarctic Peninsula

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poblete, F.; Arriagada, C.; Roperch, P.

    2009-05-01

    In the Paleozoic, South America, South Africa and Antarctica were part of Gondwana. The Weddell Sea began to form at about 146 Ma, after rifting between the Antarctic Peninsula and southernmost South America. Much uncertainty still exists about the geometrical fit and subsequent drift history between Patagonia and Antarctica. Geophysical and geological data which describe the tectonic history are sparsely distributed and often of poor quality. During the last two years we have collected more than 1000 paleomagnetic samples from 70 sites at several localities (King George Island, Robert Island, Yankee Bay, Half Moon Island, Byers Peninsula and Snow Island) from the South Shetland Islands and Anderson Island in the northern tip of Antarctic Peninsula. Our main objective was to provide first-order constraints on latitudinal displacements and the amount of tectonic rotations as an essential test of published tectonic models. Paleomagnetic results were obtained from 50 sites. All samples from sites in volcanic and intrusive rocks have well-defined univectorial magnetizations. Unfortunately, all sites in late Paleozoic sediments have been remagnetized and the magnetizations are often unstable upon thermal demagnetization. Cretaceous and Cenozoic units display very little apparent polar wander. Results from intrusive rocks of expected Jurassic age do not confirm the expected relative rotation betwen the Antarctic Peninsula and East Antarctica. Further radiometric dating are needed to confirm the age of these units.

  10. Simulating the mass balance and salinity of Arctic and Antarctic sea ice. 1. Model description and validation

    OpenAIRE

    Vancoppenolle, M.; Fichefet, T.; Goosse, H.; S. Bouillon; Madec, G.; Maqueda, M. A. M.

    2009-01-01

    This paper is the first part of a twofold contribution dedicated to the new version of the Louvain-la-Neuve sea ice model LIM3. In this part, LIM3 is described and its results arc, compared with observations. LIM3 is a C-grid dynamic-thermodynamic model, including the representation of the subgrid-scale distributions of ice thickness, enthalpy, salinity and age. Brine entrapment and drainage as well as brine impact on ice thermodynamics are explicitly included. LIM3 is embedded into the ocean...

  11. A physical-biological coupled model for algal dynamics in lakes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franke, U; Hutter, K; Jöhnk, K

    1999-03-01

    A coupled model is presented for simulating physical and biological dynamics in fresh water lakes. The physical model rests upon the assumption that the turbulent kinetic energy in a water column of the lake is fully contained in a mixed layer of variable depth. Below this layer the mechanical energy content is assumed to vanish. Additionally, the horizontal currents are ignored. This one-dimensional two-layered model describes the internal conversion of the mechanical and thermal energy input from the atmosphere into an evolution of the mixed layer depth by entrainment and detrainment mechanisms. It is supposed to form the physical domain in which the simulation of the biological processes takes place. The biological model describes mathematically the typical properties of phyto- and zooplankton, their interactions and their response to the physical environment. This description then allows the study of the behaviour of Lagrangian clusters of virtual plankton that are subjected to such environments. The essence of the model is the dynamical simulation of an arbitrary number of nutrient limited phytoplankton species and one species of zooplankton. The members of the food web above and below affect the model only statically. The model is able to reproduce the typical progression of a predator-prey interaction between phyto- and zooplankton as well as the exploitative competition for nutrients between two phytoplankton species under grazing pressure of Daphnia. It suggests that the influence of the biological system on the physical system results in a weak increase of the surface temperature for coupled simulations, but a considerably higher seasonal thermocline in spring and a lower one in autumn.

  12. Development of a model to assess masking potential for marine mammals by the use of air guns in Antarctic waters

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wittekind, D.; Tougaard, J.; Stilz, P.; Dähne, M.; Clark, C.W.; Lucke, K.; Benda-Beckmann, A.M. von; Ainslie, M.A.; Siebert, U.

    2016-01-01

    We estimated the long-range effects of air gun array noise on marine mammal communication ranges in the Southern Ocean. Air gun impulses are subject to significant distortion during propagation, potentially resulting in a quasi- continuous sound. Propagation modeling to estimate the received wavefor

  13. Antarctic crabs: invasion or endurance?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griffiths, Huw J; Whittle, Rowan J; Roberts, Stephen J; Belchier, Mark; Linse, Katrin

    2013-01-01

    Recent scientific interest following the "discovery" of lithodid crabs around Antarctica has centred on a hypothesis that these crabs might be poised to invade the Antarctic shelf if the recent warming trend continues, potentially decimating its native fauna. This "invasion hypothesis" suggests that decapod crabs were driven out of Antarctica 40-15 million years ago and are only now returning as "warm" enough habitats become available. The hypothesis is based on a geographically and spatially poor fossil record of a different group of crabs (Brachyura), and examination of relatively few Recent lithodid samples from the Antarctic slope. In this paper, we examine the existing lithodid fossil record and present the distribution and biogeographic patterns derived from over 16,000 records of Recent Southern Hemisphere crabs and lobsters. Globally, the lithodid fossil record consists of only two known specimens, neither of which comes from the Antarctic. Recent records show that 22 species of crabs and lobsters have been reported from the Southern Ocean, with 12 species found south of 60 °S. All are restricted to waters warmer than 0 °C, with their Antarctic distribution limited to the areas of seafloor dominated by Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW). Currently, CDW extends further and shallower onto the West Antarctic shelf than the known distribution ranges of most lithodid species examined. Geological evidence suggests that West Antarctic shelf could have been available for colonisation during the last 9,000 years. Distribution patterns, species richness, and levels of endemism all suggest that, rather than becoming extinct and recently re-invading from outside Antarctica, the lithodid crabs have likely persisted, and even radiated, on or near to Antarctic slope. We conclude there is no evidence for a modern-day "crab invasion". We recommend a repeated targeted lithodid sampling program along the West Antarctic shelf to fully test the validity of the "invasion hypothesis".

  14. Testing the stages model in the adaptive radiation of cichlid fishes in East African Lake Tanganyika.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muschick, Moritz; Nosil, Patrik; Roesti, Marius; Dittmann, Marie Theres; Harmon, Luke; Salzburger, Walter

    2014-11-22

    Adaptive radiation (AR) is a key process in the origin of organismal diversity. However, the evolution of trait disparity in connection with ecological specialization is still poorly understood. Available models for vertebrate ARs predict that diversification occurs in the form of temporal stages driven by different selective forces. Here, we investigate the AR of cichlid fishes in East African Lake Tanganyika and use macroevolutionary model fitting to evaluate whether diversification happened in temporal stages. Six trait complexes, for which we also provide evidence of their adaptiveness, are analysed with comparative methods: body shape, pharyngeal jaw shape, gill raker traits, gut length, brain weight and body coloration. Overall, we do not find strong evidence for the 'stages model' of AR. However, our results suggest that trophic traits diversify earlier than traits implicated in macrohabitat adaptation and that sexual communication traits (i.e. coloration) diversify late in the radiation. PMID:25274371

  15. Development of a Model to Assess Masking Potential for Marine Mammals by the Use of Air Guns in Antarctic Waters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wittekind, Dietrich; Tougaard, Jakob; Stilz, Peter; Dähne, Michael; Clark, Christopher W; Lucke, Klaus; von Benda-Beckmann, Sander; Ainslie, Michael A; Siebert, Ursula

    2016-01-01

    We estimated the long-range effects of air gun array noise on marine mammal communication ranges in the Southern Ocean. Air gun impulses are subject to significant distortion during propagation, potentially resulting in a quasi-continuous sound. Propagation modeling to estimate the received waveform was conducted. A leaky integrator was used as a hearing model to assess communication masking in three species due to intermittent/continuous air gun sounds. Air gun noise is most probably changing from impulse to continuous noise between 1,000 and 2,000 km from the source, leading to a reduced communication range for, e.g., blue and fin whales up to 2,000 km from the source. PMID:26611093

  16. Evaluation of the lake model FLake over a coastal lagoon during the THAUMEX field campaign

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patrick Le Moigne

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available The THAUMEX measurement campaign, carried out during the summer of 2011 in Thau, a coastal lagoon in southern France, focused on episodes of marine breezes. During the campaign, three intensive observation periods (IOPs were conducted and a large amount of data were collected. Subsequently, standalone modelling using the FLake lake model was used, first to assess the surface temperature and the surface energy balance, and second to determine the energy budget of the water column at the measurement site. Surface fluxes were validated against in situ measurements, and it was determined that heat exchanges are dominated by evaporation. We also demonstrated that the model was sensitive to the light extinction coefficient at Thau, due to its shallowness and clarity nature. A heat balance was calculated, and the inclusion of a radiative temperature has improved it, especially by reducing the nocturnal evaporation. The FLake lake model was then evaluated in three-dimensional numerical simulations performed with the Meso-NH mesoscale model, in order to assess the changing structure of the boundary layer above the lagoon during the IOPs more accurately. We highlighted the first time ever when Meso-NH and FLake were coupled and proved the ability of the coupled system to forecast a complex phenomenon but also the importance of the use of the FLake model was pointed out. We demonstrated the impact of the lagoon and more precisely the Lido, a sandy strip of land between the lagoon and the Mediterranean Sea, on the vertical distribution of turbulent kinetic energy, evidence of the turbulence induced by the breeze. This study showed the complementarities between standalone and coupled simulations.

  17. Application of a littoral Baltic Sea resuspension model in a eutrophic lake-factors behind differences in the model performance

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Jukka Horppila n; Joni Kaitaranta; Leena Nurminen

    2015-01-01

    abstract The performance of a linear resuspension model developed in the Baltic Sea was studied in the conditions of a eutrophic Lake Kirkkojärvi (southern Finland). The model predicts sediment resuspen-sion rate using data on vegetation cover, wind and sediment quality as an input. When the original model coefficients were used, the model resulted on average 1.8 fold overestimation of the resuspension rate in Kirkkojärvi. This was due to lower fetch and water depth, and less consolidated sediment of Kirkkojärvi compared with the Baltic Sea study site. When coefficients were adjusted for Kirkkojärvi, the model predictions were 1.1 times the measured values. Due to the continuous resuspension, the effect of the wind term in the model was so low that it could be excluded without affecting the accuracy of model predictions. The study demonstrated that in a shallow eutrophic lake accurate predictions on resuspension rate can be made using only data on sediment quality and on factors inhibiting resuspension (macrophytes). The model residuals increased with increasing resuspension rate and high rates of resuspension were underestimated by the model. Due to the fluffy sediment in Kirkkojärvi, erosion of sediment increases more than linear with increasing shear stress. Thus in such conditions, even better predictions could be achieved by a non-linear resuspension model.&2015 Published by Elsevier B.V. on behalf of International Research and Training Centre on Erosion and Sedimentation/the World Association for Sedimentation and Erosion Research.

  18. Investigating the Effect of Recruitment Variability on Length-Based Recruitment Indices for Antarctic Krill Using an Individual-Based Population Dynamics Model

    OpenAIRE

    Stéphane Thanassekos; Cox, Martin J.; Keith Reid

    2014-01-01

    Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba; herein krill) is monitored as part of an on-going fisheries observer program that collects length-frequency data. A krill feedback management programme is currently being developed, and as part of this development, the utility of data-derived indices describing population level processes is being assessed. To date, however, little work has been carried out on the selection of optimum recruitment indices and it has not been possible to assess the performance...

  19. A niche model to predict Microcystis bloom decline in Chaohu Lake, China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG Zhicong; LI Zhongjie; LI Dunhai

    2012-01-01

    Cyanobacterial blooms occur frequently in lakes due to eutrophication.Although a number of models have been proposed to forecast algal blooms,a good and applicable method is still lacking.This study explored a simple and effective mathematical-ecological model to evaluate the growth status and predict the population dynamics of Microcystis blooms.In this study,phytoplankton were collected and identified from 8 sampling sites in Chaohu Lake every month from July to October,2010.The niche breadth and niche overlap of common species were calculated using standard equations,and the potential relative growth rates of Microcystis were calculated as a weighted-value of niche overlap.In July,the potential relative growth rate was 2.79 (a.u.,arbitrary units) but then rapidly declined in the following months to -3.99 a.u.in September.A significant correlation (R=0.998,P<0.01) was found in the model between the net-increase in biomass of Microcystis in the field and the predicted values calculated by the niche model,we concluded that the niche model is suitable for forecasting the dynamics of Microcystis blooms.Redundancy analysis indicated that decreases in water temperature,dissolved oxygen and total dissolved phosphorus might be major factors underlying bloom decline.Based on the theory of community succession being caused by resource competition,the growth and decline of blooms can be predicted from a community structure.This may provide a basis for early warning and control of algal blooms.

  20. Effects of Dispersal-Related Factors on Species Distribution Model Accuracy for Boreal Lake Ecosystems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simon Hallstan

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Species distribution modeling is used in applied ecology; for example in predicting the consequences of global change. However, questions still remain about the robustness of model predictions. Here we estimate effects of landscape spatial configuration and organism flight ability—factors related to dispersal—on the accuracy of species distribution models. Distribution models were developed for 129 phytoplankton taxa, 164 littoral invertebrate taxa and 44 profundal invertebrate taxa sampled in 105 Swedish lakes, using six different modeling techniques (generalized linear models (GLM, multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS, classification tree analysis (CTA, mixture discriminant analysis (MDA, generalized boosting models (GBM and random forests (RF. Model accuracy was not affected by dispersal ability (i.e., invertebrate flight ability, but the accuracy of phytoplankton assemblage predictions and, to a lesser extent, littoral invertebrate assemblages were related to ecosystem size and connectivity. Although no general pattern across species or spatial configuration was evident from our study, we recommend that dispersal and spatial configuration of ecosystems should be considered when developing species distribution models.

  1. A Global Lake Ecological Observatory Network (GLEON) for synthesising high-frequency sensor data for validation of deterministic ecological models

    Science.gov (United States)

    David, Hamilton P; Carey, Cayelan C; Arvola, Lauri; Arzberger, Peter; Brewer, Carol A.; Cole, Jon J; Gaiser, Evelyn; Hanson, Paul C.; Ibelings, Bas W; Jennings, Eleanor; Kratz, Tim K; Lin, Fang-Pang; McBride, Christopher G; de Motta Marques, David; Muraoka, Kohji; Nishri, Ami; Qin, Boqiang; Read, Jordan S.; Rose, Kevin C.; Ryder, Elizabeth; Weathers, Kathleen C.; Zhu, Guangwei; Trolle, Dennis; Brookes, Justin D

    2014-01-01

    A Global Lake Ecological Observatory Network (GLEON; www.gleon.org) has formed to provide a coordinated response to the need for scientific understanding of lake processes, utilising technological advances available from autonomous sensors. The organisation embraces a grassroots approach to engage researchers from varying disciplines, sites spanning geographic and ecological gradients, and novel sensor and cyberinfrastructure to synthesise high-frequency lake data at scales ranging from local to global. The high-frequency data provide a platform to rigorously validate process- based ecological models because model simulation time steps are better aligned with sensor measurements than with lower-frequency, manual samples. Two case studies from Trout Bog, Wisconsin, USA, and Lake Rotoehu, North Island, New Zealand, are presented to demonstrate that in the past, ecological model outputs (e.g., temperature, chlorophyll) have been relatively poorly validated based on a limited number of directly comparable measurements, both in time and space. The case studies demonstrate some of the difficulties of mapping sensor measurements directly to model state variable outputs as well as the opportunities to use deviations between sensor measurements and model simulations to better inform process understanding. Well-validated ecological models provide a mechanism to extrapolate high-frequency sensor data in space and time, thereby potentially creating a fully 3-dimensional simulation of key variables of interest.

  2. Ocean processes at the Antarctic continental slope.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heywood, Karen J; Schmidtko, Sunke; Heuzé, Céline; Kaiser, Jan; Jickells, Timothy D; Queste, Bastien Y; Stevens, David P; Wadley, Martin; Thompson, Andrew F; Fielding, Sophie; Guihen, Damien; Creed, Elizabeth; Ridley, Jeff K; Smith, Walker

    2014-07-13

    The Antarctic continental shelves and slopes occupy relatively small areas, but, nevertheless, are important for global climate, biogeochemical cycling and ecosystem functioning. Processes of water mass transformation through sea ice formation/melting and ocean-atmosphere interaction are key to the formation of deep and bottom waters as well as determining the heat flux beneath ice shelves. Climate models, however, struggle to capture these physical processes and are unable to reproduce water mass properties of the region. Dynamics at the continental slope are key for correctly modelling climate, yet their small spatial scale presents challenges both for ocean modelling and for observational studies. Cross-slope exchange processes are also vital for the flux of nutrients such as iron from the continental shelf into the mixed layer of the Southern Ocean. An iron-cycling model embedded in an eddy-permitting ocean model reveals the importance of sedimentary iron in fertilizing parts of the Southern Ocean. Ocean gliders play a key role in improving our ability to observe and understand these small-scale processes at the continental shelf break. The Gliders: Excellent New Tools for Observing the Ocean (GENTOO) project deployed three Seagliders for up to two months in early 2012 to sample the water to the east of the Antarctic Peninsula in unprecedented temporal and spatial detail. The glider data resolve small-scale exchange processes across the shelf-break front (the Antarctic Slope Front) and the front's biogeochemical signature. GENTOO demonstrated the capability of ocean gliders to play a key role in a future multi-disciplinary Southern Ocean observing system.

  3. 水温—冰盖模式对大湖水面温度的模拟%SPATIALLY DISTRIBUTED WATER SURFACE TEMPERATURE MODELING FOR THE GREAT LAKES

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2000-01-01

    This paper describes the development and validation of a water temperature model for the Great Lakes.This model is keyed to simulate horizontally and temporally varying surface temperature.An ice cover model is coupled with the water temper ature model,forming a spatially distributed thermodynamic model for the Great La kes.This model can be used to give long-term or short-term simulations of wate r surface temperature and ice cover for the Great Lakes.

  4. Environmental contamination in Antarctic ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bargagli, R

    2008-08-01

    Although the remote continent of Antarctica is perceived as the symbol of the last great wilderness, the human presence in the Southern Ocean and the continent began in the early 1900s for hunting, fishing and exploration, and many invasive plant and animal species have been deliberately introduced in several sub-Antarctic islands. Over the last 50 years, the development of research and tourism have locally affected terrestrial and marine coastal ecosystems through fuel combustion (for transportation and energy production), accidental oil spills, waste incineration and sewage. Although natural "barriers" such as oceanic and atmospheric circulation protect Antarctica from lower latitude water and air masses, available data on concentrations of metals, pesticides and other persistent pollutants in air, snow, mosses, lichens and marine organisms show that most persistent contaminants in the Antarctic environment are transported from other continents in the Southern Hemisphere. At present, levels of most contaminants in Antarctic organisms are lower than those in related species from other remote regions, except for the natural accumulation of Cd and Hg in several marine organisms and especially in albatrosses and petrels. The concentrations of organic pollutants in the eggs of an opportunistic top predator such as the south polar skua are close to those that may cause adverse health effects. Population growth and industrial development in several countries of the Southern Hemisphere are changing the global pattern of persistent anthropogenic contaminants and new classes of chemicals have already been detected in the Antarctic environment. Although the Protocol on Environmental Protection to the Antarctic Treaty provides strict guidelines for the protection of the Antarctic environment and establishes obligations for all human activity in the continent and the Southern Ocean, global warming, population growth and industrial development in countries of the Southern

  5. Environmental contamination in Antarctic ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bargagli, R

    2008-08-01

    Although the remote continent of Antarctica is perceived as the symbol of the last great wilderness, the human presence in the Southern Ocean and the continent began in the early 1900s for hunting, fishing and exploration, and many invasive plant and animal species have been deliberately introduced in several sub-Antarctic islands. Over the last 50 years, the development of research and tourism have locally affected terrestrial and marine coastal ecosystems through fuel combustion (for transportation and energy production), accidental oil spills, waste incineration and sewage. Although natural "barriers" such as oceanic and atmospheric circulation protect Antarctica from lower latitude water and air masses, available data on concentrations of metals, pesticides and other persistent pollutants in air, snow, mosses, lichens and marine organisms show that most persistent contaminants in the Antarctic environment are transported from other continents in the Southern Hemisphere. At present, levels of most contaminants in Antarctic organisms are lower than those in related species from other remote regions, except for the natural accumulation of Cd and Hg in several marine organisms and especially in albatrosses and petrels. The concentrations of organic pollutants in the eggs of an opportunistic top predator such as the south polar skua are close to those that may cause adverse health effects. Population growth and industrial development in several countries of the Southern Hemisphere are changing the global pattern of persistent anthropogenic contaminants and new classes of chemicals have already been detected in the Antarctic environment. Although the Protocol on Environmental Protection to the Antarctic Treaty provides strict guidelines for the protection of the Antarctic environment and establishes obligations for all human activity in the continent and the Southern Ocean, global warming, population growth and industrial development in countries of the Southern

  6. Simulating Water and Nutrient Transport in an Urbanizing Agricultural Watershed with Lake-Level Regulation Using a Coupled Modeling Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, X.; Motew, M.; Booth, E.; Carpenter, S. R.; Steven, L. I.; Kucharik, C. J.

    2015-12-01

    The Yahara River basin located in southern Wisconsin is a watershed with long-term eutrophication issues due largely to a thriving dairy industry upstream of the Madison chain of lakes. Steady phosphorus loading from manure production and other sources has contributed directly to blue-green algae blooms and poor water quality in the lakes and river system, and is often viewed as the most important environmental problem to solve in the region. In this study, the daily streamflow and monthly nitrogen (N), sediment and phosphorus (P) transport, as well as the lake levels in the Yahara River basin are simulated using a physically-based hydrologic routing model: the Terrestrial Hydrology Model with Biogeochemistry (THMB). The original model includes representation of water and nitrogen transport but as part of this work, P transport and lake regulation are added into the model. The modified THMB model is coupled with the AgroIBIS-VSF agroecosystem model to represent dynamic coupling between agricultural management in the watershed, and N, P, and sediment transport to lakes and streams. We will present model calibration and validation results that demonstrate the hydrologic routing capability of THMB for a spatial resolution of 220m, several orders of magnitude finer than attempted previously with THMB. The calibrated modeling system is being used to simulate the impacts of climate change and land management on biogeochemistry in the Yahara watershed under four different pathways of change to the year 2070 (Yahara 2070). These scenarios are Abandonment and Renewal, Accelerated Innovation, Connected Communities and Nested Watersheds, which are used to better understand how future decision-making influences the provisioning and trade-offs of ecosystem services.

  7. Water age prediction and its potential impacts on water quality using a hydrodynamic model for Poyang Lake, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qi, Hengda; Lu, Jianzhong; Chen, Xiaoling; Sauvage, Sabine; Sanchez-Pérez, José-Miguel

    2016-07-01

    The water quality in Poyang Lake, the largest freshwater lake in China, has deteriorated steadily in recent years and local governments have made efforts to manage the potential eutrophication. In order to investigate the transport and retention processes of dissolved substances, the hydrodynamic model, Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code (EFDC) was applied by using the concept of water age. The simulated results showed agreement with the measured water level, discharge, and inundation area. The water age in Poyang Lake was significantly influenced by the variations of hydrological conditions. The annual analysis revealed that the largest averaged water age was observed during the wet year (2010) with 28.4 days at Hukou, the junction of the Yangtze River and Poyang Lake. In the normal season (April), the youngest age with 9.1 days was found. The spatial distribution of water quality derived from the remote sensing images suggested that a higher chlorophyll-a concentration, lower turbidity, and smaller water age in the eastern area of Poyang Lake might threaten the regional aquatic health. The particle tracking simulation reproduced the trajectories of the dissolved substances, indicating that the water mass with greater nutrient loading would further lead to potential environmental problems in the east lake. Moreover, the water transfer ability would be weakened due to dam (Poyang Project) construction resulting in the rising water levels in periods of regulation. Generally, this study quantified an indicative transport timescale, which could help to better understand the complex hydrodynamic processes and manage wetland ecosystems similar to Poyang Lake. PMID:27023820

  8. A Deterministic Model for Predicting Hourly Dissolved Oxygen Change: Development and Application to a Shallow Eutrophic Lake

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhen Xu

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Predicting dissolved oxygen (DO change at a high frequency in water bodies is useful for water quality management. In this study, we developed a deterministic model that can predict hourly DO change in a water body with high frequency weather parameters. The study was conducted during August 2008–July 2009 in a eutrophic shallow lake in Louisiana, USA. An environment monitoring buoy was deployed to record DO, water temperature and chlorophyll-a concentration at 15-min intervals, and hourly weather data including air temperature, precipitation, wind speed, relative humidity, and solar radiation were gathered from a nearby weather station. These data formed a foundation for developing a DO model that predicts rapid change of source and sink components including photosynthesis, re-aeration, respiration, and oxygen consumption by sediments. We then applied the model to a studied shallow lake that is widely representative of lake water conditions in the subtropical southern United States. Overall, the model successfully simulated high-time fluctuation of DO in the studied lake, showing good predictability for extreme algal bloom events. However, a knowledge gap still exists in accurately quantifying oxygen source produced by photosynthesis in high frequency DO modeling.

  9. The spatial extent and dynamics of the Antarctic Cold Reversal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pedro, Joel B.; Bostock, Helen C.; Bitz, Cecilia M.; He, Feng; Vandergoes, Marcus J.; Steig, Eric J.; Chase, Brian M.; Krause, Claire E.; Rasmussen, Sune O.; Markle, Bradley R.; Cortese, Giuseppe

    2016-01-01

    Antarctic ice cores show that a millennial-scale cooling event, the Antarctic Cold Reversal (14,700 to 13,000 years ago), interrupted the last deglaciation. The Antarctic Cold Reversal coincides with the Bølling-Allerød warm stage in the North Atlantic, providing an example of the inter-hemispheric coupling of abrupt climate change generally referred to as the bipolar seesaw. However, the ocean-atmosphere dynamics governing this coupling are debated. Here we examine the extent and expression of the Antarctic Cold Reversal in the Southern Hemisphere using a synthesis of 84 palaeoclimate records. We find that the cooling is strongest in the South Atlantic and all regions south of 40° S. At the same time, the terrestrial tropics and subtropics show abrupt hydrologic variations that are significantly correlated with North Atlantic climate changes. Our transient global climate model simulations indicate that the observed extent of Antarctic Cold Reversal cooling can be explained by enhanced northward ocean heat transport from the South to North Atlantic, amplified by the expansion and thickening of sea ice in the Southern Ocean. The hydrologic variations at lower latitudes result from an opposing enhancement of southward heat transport in the atmosphere mediated by the Hadley circulation. Our findings reconcile previous arguments about the relative dominance of ocean and atmospheric heat transports in inter-hemispheric coupling, demonstrating that the spatial pattern of past millennial-scale climate change reflects the superposition of both.

  10. The Antarctic ozone depletion caused by Erebus volcano gas emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zuev, V. V.; Zueva, N. E.; Savelieva, E. S.; Gerasimov, V. V.

    2015-12-01

    Heterogeneous chemical reactions releasing photochemically active molecular chlorine play a key role in Antarctic stratospheric ozone destruction, resulting in the Antarctic ozone hole. Hydrogen chloride (HCl) is one of the principal components in these reactions on the surfaces of polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs). PSCs form during polar nights at extremely low temperatures (lower than -78 °C) mainly on sulfuric acid (H2SO4) aerosols, acting as condensation nuclei and formed from sulfur dioxide (SO2). However, the cause of HCl and H2SO4 high concentrations in the Antarctic stratosphere, leading to considerable springtime ozone depletion, is still not clear. Based on the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data over the last 35 years and by using the NOAA HYSPLIT trajectory model, we show that Erebus volcano gas emissions (including HCl and SO2) can reach the Antarctic stratosphere via high-latitude cyclones with the annual average probability Pbarann. of at least ∼0.235 (23.5%). Depending on Erebus activity, this corresponds to additional annual stratospheric HCl mass of 1.0-14.3 kilotons (kt) and SO2 mass of 1.4-19.7 kt. Thus, Erebus volcano is the natural and powerful source of additional stratospheric HCl and SO2, and hence, the cause of the Antarctic ozone depletion, together with man-made chlorofluorocarbons.

  11. Evolution and ecology of antarctic sponges

    OpenAIRE

    Vargas Ramirez, Sergio

    2012-01-01

    Sponges are abundant and species-rich in Antarctic waters, and play important roles in the benthic ecosystems of the continent. The taxonomy of Antarctic sponges is, to some extent, well established, yet the phylogenetic relationships of this fauna remain unknown. Here, the first contributions to the knowledge of the evolution of Antarctic sponges are presented. A molecular phylogeny for the common Antarctic shelf glass sponge genus Rossella is provided. Based on nuclear and mitochondrial mar...

  12. Gorkha earthquake-induced landslides and dammed lakes: Evolution and outburst modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shugar, D. H.; Immerzeel, W.; Wanders, N.; Kargel, J. S.; Leonard, G. J.; Haritashya, U. K.; Collins, B. D.

    2015-12-01

    On 25 April 2015, the Gorkha Earthquake (Mw 7.8) struck Nepal, generating thousands of landslides in Nepal, Tibet (China), and India. While the majority of these hazards were triggered co-seismically, many are considered secondary effects occurring during the weeks following the main shock, based on high-resolution WorldView satellite imagery. Here we report on a series of shallow, post-seismic landslides into the upper Marsyangdi River in the Annapurna region of the central Nepal Himalayas. These landslides constricted and blocked the river, causing impoundments that presented acute flood risks to communities downstream. On April 27, two days following the main shock, ~4.7 x 104 m3 of water was impounded behind a series of small constrictions. By May 28, the total volume of impounded water had increased to ~6.4 x 105 m3. The downstream flood risk was especially significant in the event of a domino-like cascade of dam breaches. We examine the timing, distribution and evolution of the landslide-dammed lakes and quantify the risk of inundation-scenarios to downstream communities with a hydrological model. The model uses a fully kinematic wave simulation at a 30 m-spatial and 2 sec-temporal resolution to resolve the height, timing and volume of a possible outburst flood wave. Our modeling shows that a rapid dam burst involving only the lowest, largest lake would increase water levels at the nearest village of Lower Pisang ~2 km downstream by >7m in a matter of minutes. Approximately 70 km downstream, the flood wave would be mostly attenuated, raising water levels only tens of centimeters. Fortunately, at the time of writing, no flood had occurred.

  13. Hydroclimatology of Lake Victoria region using hydrologic model and satellite remote sensing data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. I. Khan

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Study of hydro-climatology at a range of temporal scales is important in understanding and ultimately mitigating the potential severe impacts of hydrological extreme events such as floods and droughts. Using daily in-situ data over the last two decades combined with the recently available multiple-years satellite remote sensing data, we analyzed and simulated, with a distributed hydrologic model, the hydro-climatology in Nzoia, one of the major contributing sub-basins of Lake Victoria in the East African highlands. The basin, with a semi arid climate, has no sustained base flow contribution to Lake Victoria. The short spell of high discharge showed that rain is the prime cause of floods in the basin. There is only a marginal increase in annual mean discharge over the last 21 years. The 2-, 5- and 10- year peak discharges, for the entire study period showed that more years since the mid 1990's have had high peak discharges despite having relatively less annual rain. The study also presents the hydrologic model calibration and validation results over the Nzoia basin. The spatiotemporal variability of the water cycle components were quantified using a hydrologic model, with in-situ and multi-satellite remote sensing datasets. The model is calibrated using daily observed discharge data for the period between 1985 and 1999, for which model performance is estimated with a Nash Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSCE of 0.87 and 0.23% bias. The model validation showed an error metrics with NSCE of 0.65 and 1.04% bias. Moreover, the hydrologic capability of satellite precipitation (TRMM-3B42 V6 is evaluated. In terms of reconstruction of the water cycle components the spatial distribution and time series of modeling results for precipitation and runoff showed considerable agreement with the monthly model runoff estimates and gauge observations. Runoff values responded to precipitation events that occurred across the catchment during the wet season from March to

  14. Aluminium speciation in streams and lakes of the UK Acid Waters Monitoring Network, modelled with WHAM.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tipping, E; Carter, H T

    2011-03-15

    The Windermere Humic Aqueous Model (WHAM) incorporating Humic Ion-Binding Model VI was applied to analytical data from the United Kingdom Acid Waters Monitoring Network, collected for 22 streams and lakes over the period 1988-2007, to calculate the chemical speciation of monomeric aluminium (Al(mon)) in 3087 water samples. Model outputs were compared with analytical measurements of labile and non-labile Al(mon) concentrations, the former being equated with inorganic forms of Al(mon) and the latter with organically-complexed metal. Raw analytical data were used, and also data produced by applying a correction for the possible dissociation of organically-complexed Al(mon), and therefore its underestimation, during passage through the analytical cation-exchange column. Model calibration was performed by finding the conversion factor, F(FADOC), between the concentration of isolated fulvic acid, with default ion-binding properties, required by the model, and the measured concentration of dissolved organic carbon, [DOC]. For both uncorrected and corrected data, the value of F(FADOC) for streams was greater than for lakes, indicating greater binding activity towards aluminium. Model fits were better using uncorrected analytical data, but the values of F(FADOC) obtained from corrected data agreed more closely with previous estimates. The model provided reasonably good explanations of differences in aluminium speciation between sampling sites, and of temporal variations at individual sites. With total monomeric concentration as input, WHAM calculations might substitute for analytical speciation measurements, or aid analytical quality control. Calculated Al(3+) activities, a(Al3+), showed a pH-dependence similar to that previously found for other surface waters, and the modelling exercise identified differences between waters of up to two orders of magnitude in the value of a(Al3+) at a given pH. The model gives the net charge of dissolved organic matter, which is calculated

  15. Thermal Pollution Mathematical Model. Volume 2: Verification of One-Dimensional Numerical Model at Lake Keowee. [environment impact of thermal discharges from power plants

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, S. S.; Sengupta, S.; Nwadike, E. V.

    1980-01-01

    A one dimensional model for studying the thermal dynamics of cooling lakes was developed and verified. The model is essentially a set of partial differential equations which are solved by finite difference methods. The model includes the effects of variation of area with depth, surface heating due to solar radiation absorbed at the upper layer, and internal heating due to the transmission of solar radiation to the sub-surface layers. The exchange of mechanical energy between the lake and the atmosphere is included through the coupling of thermal diffusivity and wind speed. The effects of discharge and intake by power plants are also included. The numerical model was calibrated by applying it to Cayuga Lake. The model was then verified through a long term simulation using Lake Keowee data base. The comparison between measured and predicted vertical temperature profiles for the nine years is good. The physical limnology of Lake Keowee is presented through a set of graphical representations of the measured data base.

  16. Partial least squares for efficient models of fecal indicator bacteria on Great Lakes beaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brooks, Wesley R.; Fienen, Michael N.; Corsi, Steven R.

    2013-01-01

    At public beaches, it is now common to mitigate the impact of water-borne pathogens by posting a swimmer's advisory when the concentration of fecal indicator bacteria (FIB) exceeds an action threshold. Since culturing the bacteria delays public notification when dangerous conditions exist, regression models are sometimes used to predict the FIB concentration based on readily-available environmental measurements. It is hard to know which environmental parameters are relevant to predicting FIB concentration, and the parameters are usually correlated, which can hurt the predictive power of a regression model. Here the method of partial least squares (PLS) is introduced to automate the regression modeling process. Model selection is reduced to the process of setting a tuning parameter to control the decision threshold that separates predicted exceedances of the standard from predicted non-exceedances. The method is validated by application to four Great Lakes beaches during the summer of 2010. Performance of the PLS models compares favorably to that of the existing state-of-the-art regression models at these four sites.

  17. Regulating Antarctic Tourism and the Precautionary Principle

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bastmeijer, C.J.; Roura, R.

    2004-01-01

    On the basis of an overview of the developments in Antarctic tourism since 1956, this current development note examines the issue of international regulation of Antarctic tourism. After discussing one of the main management issues in respect of Antarctic tourism ¿ the assessment and prevention of cu

  18. Three-dimensional numerical modeling of cohesive sediment transport and wind wave impact in a shallow oxbow lake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chao, Xiaobo; Jia, Yafei; Shields, F. Douglas, Jr.; Wang, Sam S. Y.; Cooper, Charles M.

    2008-07-01

    It was observed that in some closed inland lakes sediment transport was dominated by wind-induced currents, and the sediment resuspension was primarily driven by wind-induced waves. This paper presents the development and application of a three-dimensional numerical model for simulating cohesive sediment transport in water bodies where wind-induced currents and waves are important. In the model, the bottom shear stresses induced by currents and waves were calculated, and the processes of resuspension (erosion), deposition, settling, etc. were considered. This model was first verified by a simple test case consisting of the movement of a non-conservative tracer in a prismatic channel with uniform flow, and the model output agreed well with the analytical solution. Then it was applied to Deep Hollow Lake, a small oxbow lake in Mississippi. Simulated sediment concentrations were compared with available field observations, with generally good agreement. The transport and resuspension processes of cohesive sediment due to wind-induced current and wave in Deep Hollow Lake were also discussed.

  19. Late Holocene tephrochronology of the northern Antarctic Peninsula

    Science.gov (United States)

    Björck, Svante; Sandgren, Per; Zale, Rolf

    1991-11-01

    Andesitic and basaltic andesitic tephra layers are abundant in Holocene deposits from the Antarctic Peninsula. Visually discernible tephra horizons occur in three lakes on Livingston Island. Tephra in two other lakes and in a moss bank on Elephant Island, with very low ash concentrations, were detected magnetically. Deception Island is the most likely volcanic source for the tephra. With direct 14C dating, age/depth curves, and cross-correlations at least 14 tephra horizons dating to between ca. 4700 and 250 yr B.P. were identified and now form the basis for a preliminary regional tephrochronology that will be a valuable dating tool for investigating the Holocene climatic history of Antarctica.

  20. Surface water dynamics in Amazon, Congo, and Lake Chad Wetlands from remote sensing and modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jung, H.; Getirana, A.; Jasinski, M. F.

    2013-05-01

    The capability of satellites to understand and monitor surface water dynamics in tropical wetlands is presented by analysis various remote sensing technologies over the Amazon, Congo, and Lake Chad regions. Although different in size and location, all these basins are tropical, representing riparian tropical, swamp tropical and inland Saharan wetlands, respectively. First, yearly flooding in the Logone floodplain is investigated using Landsat Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+). Flooding has a direct impact on agricultural, pastoral and fishery systems in the Lake Chad Basin. Since the flooding extent, depth, and duration are highly variable, flood inundation mapping facilitates efficient use of water resources and have more knowledge of the coupled human-natural system in the Logone floodplain. Flood maps are generated from 33 multi-temporal ETM+ images acquired during the period 2006 to 2008. The maximum flooding extent in the study area increases up to ~5.8K km2 in late October 2008. A strong correlation is observed between the flooding extents and water height variations in both the floodplain and the river. Second, interferometric processing of JERS-1 SAR data from the central portions of both Amazon and Congo Wetlands provides centimeter-scale measurements of water level change. The Amazon is marked by a myriad of floodplain channels, but the Congo has comparatively few. Amazon floodplain channels, lakes and pans are well interconnected, whereas the Congo wetlands are expanses with few boundaries or flow routes. The hydraulic processes that build the Amazon floodplain are not similarly apparent in the Congo. Third, we evaluate the potential of large altimetry datasets as a complementary gauging network capable of providing water discharge in ungauged regions. A rating-curve-based methodology is adopted to derive water discharge from altimetric data provided by the Envisat satellite within the Amazon basin. From a global-scale perspective, the stage

  1. Mixture model of pottery decorations from Lake Chad Basin archaeological sites reveals ancient segregation patterns.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Brien, John D; Lin, Kathryn; MacEachern, Scott

    2016-03-30

    We present a new statistical approach to analysing an extremely common archaeological data type-potsherds-that infers the structure of cultural relationships across a set of excavation units (EUs). This method, applied to data from a set of complex, culturally heterogeneous sites around the Mandara mountains in the Lake Chad Basin, helps elucidate cultural succession through the Neolithic and Iron Age. We show how the approach can be integrated with radiocarbon dates to provide detailed portraits of cultural dynamics and deposition patterns within single EUs. In this context, the analysis supports ancient cultural segregation analogous to historical ethnolinguistic patterning in the region. We conclude with a discussion of the many possible model extensions using other archaeological data types. PMID:27009217

  2. Water masses, ocean fronts, and the structure of Antarctic seabird communities: Putting the eastern Bellingshausen Sea in perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ribic, Christine A.; Ainley, David G.; Glenn Ford, R.; Fraser, William R.; Tynan, Cynthia T.; Woehler, Eric J.

    2011-07-01

    Waters off the western Antarctic Peninsula (i.e., the eastern Bellingshausen Sea) are unusually complex owing to the convergence of several major fronts. Determining the relative influence of fronts on occurrence patterns of top-trophic species in that area, therefore, has been challenging. In one of the few ocean-wide seabird data syntheses, in this case for the Southern Ocean, we analyzed ample, previously collected cruise data, Antarctic-wide, to determine seabird species assemblages and quantitative relationships to fronts as a way to provide context to the long-term Palmer LTER and the winter Southern Ocean GLOBEC studies in the eastern Bellingshausen Sea. Fronts investigated during both winter (April-September) and summer (October-March) were the southern boundary of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC), which separates the High Antarctic from the Low Antarctic water mass, and within which are embedded the marginal ice zone and Antarctic Shelf Break Front; and the Antarctic Polar Front, which separates the Low Antarctic and the Subantarctic water masses. We used clustering to determine species' groupings with water masses, and generalized additive models to relate species' densities, biomass and diversity to distance to respective fronts. Antarctic-wide, in both periods, highest seabird densities and lowest species diversity were found in the High Antarctic water mass. In the eastern Bellingshausen, seabird density in the High Antarctic water mass was lower (as low as half that of winter) than found in other Antarctic regions. During winter, Antarctic-wide, two significant species groups were evident: one dominated by Adélie penguins ( Pygoscelis adeliae) (High Antarctic water mass) and the other by petrels and prions (no differentiation among water masses); in eastern Bellingshausen waters during winter, the one significant species group was composed of species from both Antarctic-wide groups. In summer, Antarctic-wide, a High Antarctic group dominated

  3. Sea level change and environmental evolution of coastal lakes in Vestfol d Hills, Antarctica

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2001-01-01

    Ecological end palaeoecological studies were carried out in a series of lakes in the Vestfold Hills (68°38'S, 78°06'E) on eastern Antarctic continent. Dynamics types of the lakes in environmental geomorphology and physic-chemistry, as well as features of biological community structures in different lakes were analyzed. Marine macro- and micro-fossils collected from the terraces and beaches surrounding these lakes and determined in 14C radiocarbon ages to be the Late Pleistocene, were used as evidences tc show the evolutionary processes of the lakes after sea level changes and transgressions since 18000 a B.P.. Basic modals of evolution for the lakes given in the paper could be regarded as not only explaining the history of environmental and ecological changes in VH lakes, and also reflecting of local environmental evolution in Antarctic region and global climate changes from past to present time.

  4. Laurentian Great Lakes phytoplankton and their water quality characteristics, including a diatom-based model for paleoreconstruction of phosphorus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reavie, Euan D; Heathcote, Adam J; Shaw Chraïbi, Victoria L

    2014-01-01

    Recent shifts in water quality and food web characteristics driven by anthropogenic impacts on the Laurentian Great Lakes warranted an examination of pelagic primary producers as tracers of environmental change. The distributions of the 263 common phytoplankton taxa were related to water quality variables to determine taxon-specific responses that may be useful in indicator models. A detailed checklist of taxa and their environmental optima are provided. Multivariate analyses indicated a strong relationship between total phosphorus (TP) and patterns in the diatom assemblages across the Great Lakes. Of the 118 common diatom taxa, 90 (76%) had a directional response along the TP gradient. We further evaluated a diatom-based transfer function for TP based on the weighted-average abundance of taxa, assuming unimodal distributions along the TP gradient. The r(2) between observed and inferred TP in the training dataset was 0.79. Substantial spatial and environmental autocorrelation within the training set of samples justified the need for further model validation. A randomization procedure indicated that the actual transfer function consistently performed better than functions based on reshuffled environmental data. Further, TP was minimally confounded by other environmental variables, as indicated by the relatively large amount of unique variance in the diatoms explained by TP. We demonstrated the effectiveness of the transfer function by hindcasting TP concentrations using fossil diatom assemblages in a Lake Superior sediment core. Passive, multivariate analysis of the fossil samples against the training set indicated that phosphorus was a strong determinant of historical diatom assemblages, verifying that the transfer function was suited to reconstruct past TP in Lake Superior. Collectively, these results showed that phytoplankton coefficients for water quality can be robust indicators of Great Lakes pelagic condition. The diatom-based transfer function can be used in

  5. Response of alpine lakes and soils to changes in acid deposition: the MAGIC model applied to the Tatra Mountain region, Slovakia-Poland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Josef VESELÝ

    2004-02-01

    Full Text Available A dynamic process-based model of surface water acidification, MAGIC, was applied to 31 representative alpine lakes in the Tatra Mountains (~50% of all alpine lakes >0.3 ha in the lake-district. The model was calibrated to observed lake chemistry for the period 1980-2002. Surface water and soil chemistry were reconstructed from 1860 to 2002, given estimates of historical acid deposition, and forecast to 2020 based on the reduction in sulphur and nitrogen emissions presupposed by the Gothenburg Protocol. In the 1860s, all lakes were buffered by the carbonate system and only ~6% of lakes had acid neutralising capacity (ANC 50% of the SAA change in sensitive lakes with intermediate weathering rates and little soils (low BC exchangeable capacity and elevated terrestrial export of nitrate and (3 by parallel changes in concentrations of protons and aluminium (each ~20% of the SAA change in extremely sensitive lakes, with the lowest weathering rates and soil base saturation. The full implementation of the Gothenburg Protocol will not be sufficient to allow recovery of the latter group of lakes, which will remain acidified after 2020.

  6. Seasonal nutrient and plankton dynamics in a physical-biological model of Crater Lake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fennel, K.; Collier, R.; Larson, G.; Crawford, G.; Boss, E.

    2007-01-01

    A coupled 1D physical-biological model of Crater Lake is presented. The model simulates the seasonal evolution of two functional phytoplankton groups, total chlorophyll, and zooplankton in good quantitative agreement with observations from a 10-year monitoring study. During the stratified period in summer and early fall the model displays a marked vertical structure: the phytoplankton biomass of the functional group 1, which represents diatoms and dinoflagellates, has its highest concentration in the upper 40 m; the phytoplankton biomass of group 2, which represents chlorophyta, chrysophyta, cryptomonads and cyanobacteria, has its highest concentrations between 50 and 80 m, and phytoplankton chlorophyll has its maximum at 120 m depth. A similar vertical structure is a reoccurring feature in the available data. In the model the key process allowing a vertical separation between biomass and chlorophyll is photoacclimation. Vertical light attenuation (i.e., water clarity) and the physiological ability of phytoplankton to increase their cellular chlorophyll-to-biomass ratio are ultimately determining the location of the chlorophyll maximum. The location of the particle maxima on the other hand is determined by the balance between growth and losses and occurs where growth and losses equal. The vertical particle flux simulated by our model agrees well with flux measurements from a sediment trap. This motivated us to revisit a previously published study by Dymond et al. (1996). Dymond et al. used a box model to estimate the vertical particle flux and found a discrepancy by a factor 2.5-10 between their mod