WorldWideScience

Sample records for antarctic lakes models

  1. Modeling Antarctic Subglacial Lake Filling and Drainage Cycles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dow, Christine F.; Werder, Mauro A.; Nowicki, Sophie; Walker, Ryan T.

    2016-01-01

    The growth and drainage of active subglacial lakes in Antarctica has previously been inferred from analysis of ice surface altimetry data. We use a subglacial hydrology model applied to a synthetic Antarctic ice stream to examine internal controls on the filling and drainage of subglacial lakes. Our model outputs suggest that the highly constricted subglacial environment of our idealized ice stream, combined with relatively high rates of water flow funneled from a large catchment, can combine to create a system exhibiting slow-moving pressure waves. Over a period of years, the accumulation of water in the ice stream onset region results in a buildup of pressure creating temporary channels, which then evacuate the excess water. This increased flux of water beneath the ice stream drives lake growth. As the water body builds up, it steepens the hydraulic gradient out of the overdeepened lake basin and allows greater flux. Eventually this flux is large enough to melt channels that cause the lake to drain. Lake drainage also depends on the internal hydrological development in the wider system and therefore does not directly correspond to a particular water volume or depth. This creates a highly temporally and spatially variable system, which is of interest for assessing the importance of subglacial lakes in ice stream hydrology and dynamics.

  2. Modeling Antarctic subglacial lake filling and drainage cycles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. F. Dow

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available The growth and drainage of active subglacial lakes in Antarctica has previously been inferred from analysis of ice surface altimetry data. We use a subglacial hydrology model applied to a synthetic Antarctic ice stream to determine internal controls on the filling and drainage of subglacial lakes and their impact on ice stream dynamics. Our model outputs suggest that the highly constricted subglacial environment of the ice stream, combined with relatively high rates of water flow funneled from large catchments, can combine to create a system exhibiting slow-moving pressure waves. Over a period of years, the accumulation of water in the ice stream onset region results in a buildup of pressure creating temporary channels, which then evacuate the excess water. This increased flux of water through the ice stream drives lake growth. As the water body builds up, it too steepens the hydraulic gradient and allows greater flux out of the overdeepened lake basin. Eventually this flux is large enough to create channels that cause the lake to drain. Due to the presence of the channels, the drainage of the lake causes high water pressures around 50 km downstream of the lake rather than immediately in the vicinity of the overdeepening. Following lake drainage, channels again shut down. Lake drainage depends on the internal hydrological development in the wider system and therefore does not directly correspond to a particular water volume or depth. This creates a highly temporally and spatially variable system, which is of interest for assessing the importance of subglacial lakes in ice stream hydrology and dynamics.

  3. Geoethical Approach to Antarctic Subglacial Lakes Exploration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Talalay, Pavel; Markov, Alexey; Sysoev, Mikhail

    2014-05-01

    Antarctic subglacial aquatic environment have become of great interest to the science community because they may provide unique information about microbial evolution, the past climate of the Earth, and the formation of the Antarctic ice sheet. Nowadays it is generally recognized that a vast network of lakes, rivers, and streams exists thousands of meters beneath Antarctic Ice Sheets. Up to date only four boreholes accessed subglacial aquatic system but three of them were filled with high-toxic drilling fluid, and the subglacial water was contaminated. Two recent exploration programs proposed by UK and USA science communities anticipated direct access down to the lakes Ellsworth and Whillans, respectively, in the 2012/2013 Antarctic season. A team of British scientists and engineers engaged in the first attempt to drill into Lake Ellsworth but failed. US research team has successfully drilled through 800 m of Antarctic ice to reach a subglacial lake Whillans and retrieve water and sediment samples. Both activities used hot-water drilling technology to access lakes. Hot water is considered by the world science community as the most clean drilling fluid medium from the present point of view but it cannot solve environmental problems in total because hot-water even when heated to 90 °C, filtered to 0.2 μm, and UV treated at the surface could pick up microorganisms from near-surface snow and circulate them in great volume through the borehole. Another negative impact of hot-water circulation medium is thermal pollution of subglacial water. The new approach to Antarctic subglacial lakes exploration is presented by sampling technology with recoverable autonomous sonde which is equipped by two hot-points with heating elements located on the bottom and top sides of the sonde. All down-hole sonde components will be sterilized by combination of chemical wash, HPV and UV sterilization prior using. At the beginning of the summer season sonde is installed on the surface of the

  4. Development of a regional glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraether (GDGT)-temperature calibration for Antarctic and sub-Antarctic lakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foster, Louise C.; Pearson, Emma J.; Juggins, Steve; Hodgson, Dominic A.; Saunders, Krystyna M.; Verleyen, Elie; Roberts, Stephen J.

    2016-01-01

    A regional network of quantitative reconstructions of past climate variability is required to test climate models. In recent studies, temperature calibration models based on the relative abundances of sedimentary glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers (GDGTs) have enabled past temperature reconstructions in both marine and terrestrial environments. Nevertheless, to date these methods have not been widely applied in high latitude environments due to poor performance of the GDGT-temperature calibrations at lower temperatures. To address this we studied 32 lakes from Antarctica, the sub-Antarctic Islands and Southern Chile to: 1) quantify their GDGT composition and investigate the environmental controls on GDGT composition; and 2) develop a GDGT-temperature calibration model for inferring past temperatures from Antarctic and sub-Antarctic lakes. GDGTs were found in all 32 lakes studied and in 31 lakes branched GDGTs (brGDGTs) were the dominant compounds. Statistical analyses of brGDGT composition in relation to temperature, pH, conductivity and water depth showed that the composition of brGDGTs is strongly correlated with mean summer air temperature (MSAT). This enabled the development of the first regional brGDGT-temperature calibration for use in Antarctic and sub-Antarctic lakes using four brGDGT compounds (GDGT-Ib, GDGT-II, GDGT-III and GDGT-IIIb). A key discovery was that GDGT-IIIb is of particular importance in cold lacustrine environments. The addition of this compound significantly improved the model's performance from r2 = 0.67, RMSEP-LOO (leave-one-out) = 2.23 °C, RMSEP-H (h-block) = 2.37 °C when applying the re-calibrated global GDGT-temperature calibration to our Antarctic dataset to r2 = 0.83, RMSEP-LOO = 1.68 °C, RMSEP-H = 1.65 °C for our new Antarctic calibration. This shows that Antarctic and sub-Antarctic, and possibly other high latitude, palaeotemperature reconstructions should be based on a regional GDGT-temperature calibration where specific

  5. Modelling the Antarctic Ice Sheet

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Jens Olaf Pepke; Holm, A.

    2015-01-01

    Science) Antarctic Ice Sheet (DAIS) model (Shaffer 2014) is forced by reconstructed time series of Antarctic temperature, global sea level and ocean subsurface temperature over the last two glacial cycles. In this talk a modelling work of the Antarctic ice sheet over most of the Cenozoic era using the......The Antarctic ice sheet is a major player in the Earth’s climate system and is by far the largest depository of fresh water on the planet. Ice stored in the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) contains enough water to raise sea level by about 58 m, and ice loss from Antarctica contributed significantly to...... DAIS model will be presented. G. Shaffer (2014) Formulation, calibration and validation of the DAIS model (version 1), a simple Antarctic ice sheet model sensitive to variations of sea level and ocean subsurface temperature, Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 1803‐1818...

  6. Antarctic subglacial lake exploration: first results and future plans

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siegert, Martin J.; Priscu, John C.; Wadham, Jemma L.; Lyons, W. Berry

    2016-01-01

    After more than a decade of planning, three attempts were made in 2012–2013 to access, measure in situ properties and directly sample subglacial Antarctic lake environments. First, Russian scientists drilled into the top of Lake Vostok, allowing lake water to infiltrate, and freeze within, the lower part of the ice-core borehole, from which further coring would recover a frozen sample of surface lake water. Second, UK engineers tried unsuccessfully to deploy a clean-access hot-water drill, to sample the water column and sediments of subglacial Lake Ellsworth. Third, a US mission successfully drilled cleanly into subglacial Lake Whillans, a shallow hydraulically active lake at the coastal margin of West Antarctica, obtaining samples that would later be used to prove the existence of microbial life and active biogeochemical cycling beneath the ice sheet. This article summarizes the results of these programmes in terms of the scientific results obtained, the operational knowledge gained and the engineering challenges revealed, to collate what is known about Antarctic subglacial environments and how to explore them in future. While results from Lake Whillans testify to subglacial lakes as being viable biological habitats, the engineering challenges to explore deeper more isolated lakes where unique microorganisms and climate records may be found, as exemplified in the Lake Ellsworth and Vostok missions, are considerable. Through international cooperation, and by using equipment and knowledge of the existing subglacial lake exploration programmes, it is possible that such environments could be explored thoroughly, and at numerous sites, in the near future. PMID:26667917

  7. Antarctic Dry Valley Streams and Lakes: Analogs for Noachian Mars?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Head, James; Marchant, David

    2013-04-01

    Recent climate models suggest that Noachian Mars may have been characterized by a "cold and icy", rather than a "warm and wet" climate. Noachian valley networks and open basin lakes have been cited as key evidence for a "warm and wet" early Mars. We investigate fluvial and lacustrine processes in the Mars-like Antarctic McMurdo Dry Valleys (MDV) to assess whether such processes, which take place in the absence of pluvial activity and with mean annual temperatues (MAT) well below zero, can serve as informative proxies for Noachian Mars. In contrast to temperate climates, fluvial processes in the MDV (and thus a host of weathering, erosion and transport processes there) are severely limited by the lack of rainfall. The limited sources of meltwater provide very local streams and hyporheic zones, serving to concentrate chemical weathering processes and biological ecosystems. The horizontally stratified hydrologic system means that localized meltwater is constrained to flow in a very shallow and narrow aquifer perched on top of the ice table aquiclude. Lakes and ponds in temperate areas are largely of pluvial origin and characterized by abundant vegetation, large drainage basins and higher order streams delivering rainwater. In contrast, the hyperarid, hypothermal conditions in the MDV mean that there is no rainfall, water sources are limited primarily to meltwater from the surface of cold-based glaciers, and drainage into lakes is seasonal and highly variable, being related to changing and sluggish response to surface ice hypsometry, itself a function of changing climate. Lake surface fluctuations are caused by imbalances between meltwater input and sublimation from the lake surface ice and this sensitive balance tends to magnify even minor climate signals. Where does the lakewater come from and under what conditions is excess meltwater produced to cause modifications in their levels? The dominant means of supply (meltwater) and loss (ablation) are clearly seasonally

  8. Study on ecological structures of coastal lakes in Antarctic continent

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2000-01-01

    Coastal region on the Antarctic continent, where it is under the influences both of ocean and ice sheet, as well as frequent human activities, could be considered as a fragile zone in Antarctic ecological environment. There are many lakes in coastal region, showing much differences from each other in physical-chemical features because of individual evolutionary history in their geographical environments, and suffering from different outside factors, such as climate changes and precipitation. Thus, it results in respective biological distribution and ecological structure in lakes. The present paper reports the results from the studies of chemical components, species distributions and community structures, which mainly consisted of planktons in lakes in the Vestfold Hills (68°38'S, 78°06'E), and the Larsemann Hills (69°30'S, 76°20'E), East Antarctica. It also treats the biological diversities and nutrient relationships of these different types of lakes. So as to provide more scientific basis for monitoring of climate changes and environmental protection in Antarctica.

  9. Radio-echo sounding of 'active' Antarctic subglacial lakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siegert, M. J.; Ross, N.; Blankenship, D. D.; Young, D. A.; Greenbaum, J. S.; Richter, T.; Rippin, D. M.; Le Brocq, A. M.; Wright, A.; Bingham, R.; Corr, H.; Ferraccioli, F.; Jordan, T. A.; Smith, B. E.; Payne, A. J.; Dowdeswell, J. A.; Bamber, J. L.

    2013-12-01

    Repeat-pass satellite altimetry has revealed 124 discrete surface height changes across the Antarctic Ice Sheet, interpreted to be caused by subglacial lake discharges (surface lowering) and inputs (surface uplift). Few of these active lakes have been confirmed by radio-echo sounding (RES) despite several attempts, however. Over the last 5 years, major geophysical campaigns have acquired RES data from several 'active' lake sites, including the US-UK-Australian ICECAP programme in East Antactica and the UK survey of the Institute Ice Stream in West Antarctica. In the latter case, a targeted RES survey of one 'active' lake was undertaken. RES evidence of the subglacial bed beneath 'active' lakes in both East and West Antarctica will be presented, and the evidence for pooled subglacial water from these data will be assessed. Based on this assessment, the nature of 'active' subglacial lakes, and their associated hydrology and relationship with surrounding topography will be discussed, as will the likelihood of further 'active' lakes in Antarctica. Hydraulic potential map of the Byrd Glacier catchment with contours at 5 MPa intervals. Predicted subglacial flowpaths are shown in blue. Subglacial lakes known from previous geophysical surveys are shown as black triangles while the newly discovered 'Three-tier lakes' are shown in dashed black outline. Surface height change features within the Byrd subglacial catchment are shown in outline and are shaded to indicate whether they were rising or falling during the ICESat campaign. Those features are labelled in-line with the numbering system of Smith et al. (J. Glac. 2009).

  10. Subsurface imaging reveals a confined aquifer beneath an ice-sealed Antarctic lake

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dugan, H. A.; Doran, P. T.; Tulaczyk, S.;

    2015-01-01

    Liquid water oases are rare under extreme cold desert conditions found in the Antarctic McMurdo Dry Valleys. Here we report geophysical results that indicate that Lake Vida, one of the largest lakes in the region, is nearly frozen and underlain by widespread cryoconcentrated brine. A ground penet...

  11. Antarctic lakes (above and beneath the ice sheet): Analogues for Mars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rice, J. W., Jr.

    The perennial ice covered lakes of the Antarctic are considered to be excellent analogues to lakes that once existed on Mars. Field studies of ice covered lakes, paleolakes, and polar beaches were conducted in the Bunger Hills Oasis, Eastern Antarctica. These studies are extended to the Dry Valleys, Western Antarctica, and the Arctic. Important distinctions were made between ice covered and non-ice covered bodies of water in terms of the geomorphic signatures produced. The most notable landforms produced by ice covered lakes are ice shoved ridges. These features form discrete segmented ramparts of boulders and sediments pushed up along the shores of lakes and/or seas. Sub-ice lakes have been discovered under the Antarctic ice sheet using radio echo sounding. These lakes occur in regions of low surface slope, low surface accumulations, and low ice velocity, and occupy bedrock hollows. The presence of sub-ice lakes below the Martian polar caps is possible. The discovery of the Antarctic sub-ice lakes raises possibilities concerning Martian lakes and exobiology.

  12. The Distribution of Antarctic Subglacial Lake Environments With Implications for Their Origin and Evolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blankenship, D. D.; Young, D. A.; Carter, S. P.

    2006-12-01

    Ice-penetrating radar records across the Antarctic Ice Sheet show regions with strong flat mirror-like reflections from the subglacial interface that are interpreted to be from subglacial lakes. The majority of subglacial lakes are found in East Antarctica, primarily in topographically low areas of basins beneath the thick ice divides. Occasionally lakes are observed "perched" at higher elevations within local depressions of rough morphological regions. In addition, a correlation between the "onset" of enhanced glacial flow and subglacial lakes was identified. The greatest concentration of known lakes was found in the vicinity of Dome C. A second grouping of lakes lying near Ridge B includes Lake Vostok and several smaller lakes. Subglacial lakes were also discovered near the South Pole, within eastern Wilkes Land, west of the Transantarctic Mountains, and within West Antarctica's Whitmore Mountains. Aside from Lake Vostok, typical lengths of subglacial lakes were found to range from a few to about 20 kilometers. A recent inventory includes 145 subglacial lakes. Approximately 81% of detected lakes lie at elevations less than a few hundred meters above sea level while the majority of the remaining lakes are "perched" at higher elevations. We present the locations from the subglacial lake inventory on local "ice divides" calculated from the satellite derived surface elevations with and find the distance of each lake from these divides. Most significantly, we found that 66% of the lakes identified lie within 50 km of a local ice divide and 88% lie within 100 km of a local divide. In particular, note that lakes located far from the Dome C/Ridge B cluster and even those associated with very narrow catchments lie either on or within a few tens of kilometers of the local divide marked by the catchment boundary. The distance correlation of subglacial lakes with local ice divides leads to a fundamental question for the evolution of subglacial lake environments: Does the

  13. Ciliated protozoa of two antarctic lakes: analysis by quantitative protargol staining and examination of artificial substrates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kepner, R. L. Jr; Wharton, R. A. Jr; Coats, D. W.; Wharton RA, J. r. (Principal Investigator)

    1999-01-01

    Planktonic and artificial substrate-associated ciliates have been identified in two perennially ice-covered antarctic lakes of the McMurdo Dry Valleys. Abundances estimated by quantitative protargol staining ranged from < 5 to 31690 cells l-1, levels that are comparable to those previously obtained using other methods. Nineteen ciliate taxa were identified from these lakes, with the most frequently encountered genera being Plagiocampa, Askenasia, Monodinium, Sphaerophrya and Vorticella. The taxonomic findings compare favorably with those of previous investigators; however four previously unreported genera were observed in both Lakes Fryxell and Hoare. The variability in the depth distributions of ciliates in Lake Fryxell is explained in terms of lake physicochemical properties and ciliate prey distributions, while factors related to temporal succession in the Lake Hoare assemblage remain unexplained. Local marine or temperate zone freshwater habitats are a more likely source than the surrounding dry valleys soils for present ciliate colonists in these lakes. Although the taxonomic uncertainties require further examination, our results suggest that ciliate populations in these antarctic lakes undergo significant fluctuations and are more diverse than was previously recognized.

  14. Spatial modelling of wetness for the Antarctic Dry Valleys

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Glen Stichbury

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes a method used to model relative wetness for part of the Antarctic Dry Valleys using Geographic Information Systems (GIS and remote sensing. The model produces a relative index of liquid water availability using variables that influence the volume and distribution of water. Remote sensing using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS images collected over four years is used to calculate an average index of snow cover and this is combined with other water sources such as glaciers and lakes. This water source model is then used to weight a hydrological flow accumulation model that uses slope derived from Light Detection and Ranging (LIDAR elevation data. The resulting wetness index is validated using three-dimensional visualization and a comparison with a high-resolution Advanced Land Observing Satellite image that shows drainage channels. This research demonstrates that it is possible to produce a wetness model of Antarctica using data that are becoming widely available.

  15. Microwave emissivity of fresh water ice--Lake ice and Antarctic ice pack--Radiative transfer simulations versus satellite radiances

    CERN Document Server

    Mills, Peter

    2012-01-01

    Microwave emissivity models of sea ice are poorly validated empirically. Typical validation studies involve using averaged or stereotyped profiles of ice parameters against averaged radiance measurements. Measurement sites are rarely matched and even less often point-by-point. Because of saline content, complex permittivity of sea ice is highly variable and difficult to predict. Therefore, to check the validity of a typical, plane-parallel, radiative-transfer-based ice emissivity model, we apply it to fresh water ice instead of salt-water ice. Radiance simulations for lake ice are compared with measurements over Lake Superior from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer on EOS (AMSR-E). AMSR-E measurements are also collected over Antarctic icepack. For each pixel, a thermodynamic model is driven by four years of European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis data and the resulting temperature profiles used to drive the emissivity model. The results suggest that the relatively simple ...

  16. An Observation of Antarctic Marginal Subglacial Lake using Cryosat-2 SARin mode

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, B.; Lee, C. K.; Seo, K. W.

    2015-12-01

    The surface height above active subglacial lake (SGL) varies in accordance with the water storage of lake beneath ice-sheet. Thus, satellite altimeters accurately measuring the ice surface height have discovered numbers of SGLs. In this study, we detect Antarctic SGLs using Cryosat-2 without any auxiliary data. The SARin mode of Cyrosat-2 is designed to retrieve the elevation over steep slope regions, such as margin of ice-sheet or ice-stream. The high-resolution processing of SARin mode yielding the elevation change rate (=Δh/Δt) enables us to verify the specific 2-D boundary of lake and even the small-scale uncategorized lakes. In the Whillans and Mercer Ice Streams (WIS and MIS), drainage or refilling events of 9 SGLs are apparent in Cyrosat-2 era, and one of those is likely an uncategorized lake. In addition, the ice thickening upstream of WIS and MIS, which might be provoked by the deceleration downstream of WIS, alternates between high and low rate. It might be associated with massive drainage event of lake "Conway". In the Kamb Ice Stream (KIS), most of previously known SGLs are not observed except for only one (Kamb trunk1) due to the limited spatial coverage of SARin mode operation. However, two additional lakes (located in 82.304S/147.980W and 82.477S/150.585W, respectively) are discovered at the downstream of Kamb trunk 1 lake. Similar approach is applied at slightly rugged terrain, which is located on the upstream of David Glacier. The drainage event of David 1 SGL is apparent, but the precise location of the lake is significantly (about twenty kilometers) different from previous ICESat measurement. Since ICESat measurements have limited temporal/spatial resolutions, we expect that Cryosat-2 have more optimal performance for measuring Antarctic Marginal SGLs.

  17. Lipophilic pigments from the benthos of a perennially ice-covered Antarctic lake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palmisano, A. C.; Wharton, R. A. Jr; Cronin, S. E.; Des Marais, D. J.; Wharton RA, J. r. (Principal Investigator)

    1989-01-01

    The benthos of a perennially ice-covered Antarctic lake, Lake Hoare, contained three distinct 'signatures' of lipophilic pigments. Cyanobacterial mats found in the moat at the periphery of the lake were dominated by the carotenoid myxoxanthophyll; carotenoids: chlorophyll a ratios in this high light environment ranged from 3 to 6.8. Chlorophyll c and fucoxanthin, pigments typical of golden-brown algae, were found at 10 to 20 m depths where the benthos is aerobic. Anaerobic benthic sediments at 20 to 30 m depths were characterized by a third pigment signature dominated by a carotenoid, tentatively identified as alloxanthin from planktonic cryptomonads, and by phaeophytin b from senescent green algae. Pigments were not found associated with alternating organic and sediment layers. As microzooplankton grazers are absent from this closed system and transformation rates are reduced at low temperatures, the benthos beneath the lake ice appears to contain a record of past phytoplankton blooms undergoing decay.

  18. Chemistry of snow and lake water in Antarctic region

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Kaushar Ali; Sunil Sonbawane; D M Chate; Devendraa Siingh; P S P Rao; P D Safai; K B Budhavant

    2010-12-01

    Surface snow and lake water samples were collected at different locations around Indian station at Antarctica, Maitri, during December 2004-March 2005 and December 2006-March 2007.Samples were analyzed for major chemical ions. It is found that average pH value of snow is 6.1. Average pH value of lake water with low chemical content is 6.2 and of lake water with high chemical content is 6.5.The Na+ and Cl− are the most abundantly occurring ions at Antarctica. Considerable amount of SO$^{2-}_{4}$ is also found in the surface snow and the lake water which is attributed to the oxidation of DMS produced by marine phytoplankton.Neutralization of acidic components of snow is mainly done by NH$^{+}_{4}$ and Mg2+. The Mg2+, Ca2+ and K+ are nearly equally effective in neutralizing the acidic components in lake water.The NH$^{+}_{4}$ and SO$^{2-}_{4}$ occur over the Antarctica region mostly in the form of (NH4)2SO4.

  19. Plectolyngbya hodgsonii: a novel filamentous cyanobacterium from Antarctic lakes

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Taton, A.; Wilmotte, A.; Šmarda, J.; Elster, Josef; Komárek, Jiří

    2011-01-01

    Roč. 34, č. 2 (2011), 181-191. ISSN 0722-4060 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA206/05/0253 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z60050516 Keywords : Antarctica * benthos of lake * cyanobacteria Subject RIV: EF - Botanics Impact factor: 1.659, year: 2011

  20. Antarctic ecosystems as models for extraterrestrial surface habitats

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wynn-Williams, D. D.; Edwards, H. G. M.

    2000-09-01

    Surface habitats in Antarctic deserts are near the limits of life on Earth and resemble those hypothesized for early Mars. Cyanobacteria dominate the transient riverbeds, stromatolitic sediments in ice-covered lakes, and endolithic communities in translucent rock. There is still no direct evidence of photosynthetic life on early Mars, but cyanobacteria are amongst the earliest microbes detectable in the fossil record for analogous habitats on Earth. Key biomolecules persist in Antarctic microbial habitats, even after extinction by excessive low temperatures, desiccation and UV-B stress within the Ozone Hole. Pigments (or their fossil residues), such as chlorophyll and the UV-protectants scytonemin, carotene and quinones, are good biomarkers. To show not only their presence but also their micro-spatial distribution in situ, we describe the use of FT-Raman spectroscopy with 1064 nm excitation to avoid autofluorescence from the pigments. We report not only the diversity of biomolecules that we have diagnosed from their unique Raman spectra of Antarctic cyanobacterial communities, but also their functional stratification in endolithic communities. Our analyses of Antarctic habitats show the potential of this remote, non-intrusive technique to probe for buried biomolecules on future Mars missions and in Antarctic Lake Vostok, >4 km beneath the Central Ice Sheet, with implications for the putative analogous sub-ice ocean on Europa.

  1. Chemical limnology in coastal East Antarctic lakes: monitoring future climate change in centres of endemism and biodiversity

    OpenAIRE

    Verleyen, Elie; Hodgson, Dominic; Gibson, John; Imura, Satoshi; Kaup, Enn; Kudoh, Sakake; De Wever, Aaike; Hoshino, Tamotsu; McMinn, Andrew; Obbels, Dagmar; Roberts, Donna; Roberts, Stephen; Sabbe, Kobe; Souffreau, Caroline; Tavernier, Ines

    2012-01-01

    Polar lakes respond quickly to climate-induced environmental changes. We studied the chemical limnological variability in 127 lakes and ponds from eight ice-free regions along the East Antarctic coastline, and compared repeat specific conductance measurements from lakes in the Larsemann Hills and Skarvsnes covering the periods 1987–2009 and 1997–2008, respectively. Specific conductance, the concentration of the major ions, pH and the concentration of the major nutrients underlie t...

  2. Extensive lake sediment coring survey on Sub-Antarctic Indian Ocean Kerguelen Archipelago (French Austral and Antarctic Lands)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arnaud, Fabien; Fanget, Bernard; Malet, Emmanuel; Poulenard, Jérôme; Støren, Eivind; Leloup, Anouk; Bakke, Jostein; Sabatier, Pierre

    2016-04-01

    Recent paleo-studies revealed climatic southern high latitude climate evolution patterns that are crucial to understand the global climate evolution(1,2). Among others the strength and north-south shifts of westerlies wind appeared to be a key parameter(3). However, virtually no lands are located south of the 45th South parallel between Southern Georgia (60°W) and New Zealand (170°E) precluding the establishment of paleoclimate records of past westerlies dynamics. Located around 50°S and 70°E, lost in the middle of the sub-Antarctic Indian Ocean, Kerguelen archipelago is a major, geomorphologically complex, land-mass that is covered by hundreds lakes of various sizes. It hence offers a unique opportunity to reconstruct past climate and environment dynamics in a region where virtually nothing is known about it, except the remarkable recent reconstructions based on a Lateglacial peatbog sequence(4). During the 2014-2015 austral summer, a French-Norwegian team led the very first extensive lake sediment coring survey on Kerguelen Archipelago under the umbrella of the PALAS program supported by the French Polar Institute (IPEV). Two main areas were investigated: i) the southwest of the mainland, so-called Golfe du Morbihan, where glaciers are currently absent and ii) the northernmost Kerguelen mainland peninsula so-called Loranchet, where cirque glaciers are still present. This double-target strategy aims at reconstructing various independent indirect records of precipitation (glacier advance, flood dynamics) and wind speed (marine spray chemical species, wind-borne terrigenous input) to tackle the Holocene climate variability. Despite particularly harsh climate conditions and difficult logistics matters, we were able to core 6 lake sediment sites: 5 in Golfe du Morbihan and one in Loranchet peninsula. Among them two sequences taken in the 4km-long Lake Armor using a UWITEC re-entry piston coring system by 20 and 100m water-depth (6 and 7m-long, respectively). One

  3. Origin and Phylogeny of Microbes Living in Permanent Antarctic Lake Ice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gordon, D. A.; Priscu, J.; Giovannoni, S.

    2000-04-01

    A BSTRACTThe phylogenetic diversity of bacteria and cyanobacteria colonizing sediment particles in the permanent ice cover of an Antarctic lake was characterized by analyses of 16S rRNA genes amplified from environmental DNA. Samples of mineral particles were collected from a depth of 2.5 m in the 4-m-thick ice cover of Lake Bonney, McMurdo Dry Valleys, Antarctica. A rRNA gene clone library of 198 clones was made and characterized by sequencing and oligonucleotide probe hybridization. The library was dominated by representatives of the cyanobacteria, proteobacteria, and Planctomycetales, but also contained diverse clones representing many other microbial groups, including the Acidobacterium/Holophaga division, the Green Non-Sulfur division, and the Actinobacteria. Six oligonucleotide probes were made for the most abundant clades recovered in the library. To determine whether the ice microbial community might originate from wind dispersal of the algal mats found elsewhere in Taylor Valley, the probes were hybridized to 16S rDNAs amplified from three samples of terrestrial cyanobacterial mats collected at nearby sites, as well as to bacterial 16S rDNAs from the lake ice community. The results demonstrate the presence of a diverse microbial community dominated by cyanobacteria in the lake ice, and also show that the dominant members of the lake ice microbial community are found in terrestrial mats elsewhere in the area. The lake ice microbial community appears to be dominated by organisms that are not uniquely adapted to the lake ice ecosystem, but instead are species that originate elsewhere in the surrounding region and opportunistically colonize the unusual habitat provided by the sediments suspended in lake ice. PMID:12035096

  4. A decade of progress in observing and modelling Antarctic subglacial water systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fricker, Helen A; Siegfried, Matthew R; Carter, Sasha P; Scambos, Ted A

    2016-01-28

    In the decade since the discovery of active Antarctic subglacial water systems by detection of subtle surface displacements, much progress has been made in our understanding of these dynamic systems. Here, we present some of the key results of observations derived from ICESat laser altimetry, CryoSat-2 radar altimetry, Operation IceBridge airborne laser altimetry, satellite image differencing and ground-based continuous Global Positioning System (GPS) experiments deployed in hydrologically active regions. These observations provide us with an increased understanding of various lake systems in Antarctica: Whillans/Mercer Ice Streams, Crane Glacier, Recovery Ice Stream, Byrd Glacier and eastern Wilkes Land. In several cases, subglacial water systems are shown to control ice flux through the glacier system. For some lake systems, we have been able to construct more than a decade of continuous lake activity, revealing internal variability on time scales ranging from days to years. This variability indicates that continuous, accurate time series of altimetry data are critical to understanding these systems. On Whillans Ice Stream, our results from a 5-year continuous GPS record demonstrate that subglacial lake flood events significantly change the regional ice dynamics. We also show how models for subglacial water flow have evolved since the availability of observations of lake volume change, from regional-scale models of water routeing to process models of channels carved into the subglacial sediment instead of the overlying ice. We show that progress in understanding the processes governing lake drainage now allows us to create simulated lake volume time series that reproduce time series from satellite observations. This transformational decade in Antarctic subglacial water research has moved us significantly closer to understanding the processes of water transfer sufficiently for inclusion in continental-scale ice-sheet models. PMID:26667904

  5. Maneuver simulation model of an experimental hovercraft for the Antarctic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murao, Rinichi

    Results of an investigation of a hovercraft model designed for Antarctic conditions are presented. The buoyancy characteristics, the propellant control system, and simulation model control are examined. An ACV (air cushion vehicle) model of the hovercraft is used to examine the flexibility and friction of the skirt. Simulation results are presented which show the performance of the hovercraft.

  6. The South Atlantic in the Fine-Resolution Antarctic Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. P. Stevens

    Full Text Available The geographical area covered by the Fine-Resolution Antarctic Model (FRAM includes that part of the South Atlantic south of 24°S. A description of the dynamics and thermodynamics of this region of the model is presented. Both the mean and eddy fields in the model are in good agreement with reality, although the magnitude of the transients is somewhat reduced. The heat flux is northward and in broad agreement with many other estimates. Agulhas eddies are formed by the model and propagate westward into the Atlantic providing a mechanism for fluxing heat from the Indian Ocean. The confluence of the Brazil and Falkland currents produces a strong front and a large amount of mesoscale activity. In the less stratified regions to the south, topographic steering of the Antarctic circumpolar current is important.

  7. Cascading water underneath Wilkes Land, East Antarctic Ice Sheet, observed using altimetry and digital elevation models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Flament

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available We describe a major subglacial lake drainage close to the ice divide in Wilkes Land, East Antarctica, and the subsequent cascading of water underneath the ice sheet toward the coast. To analyze the event, we combined altimetry data from several sources and bedrock data. We estimated the total volume of water that drained from Lake CookE2 by differencing digital elevation models (DEM derived from ASTER and SPOT5 stereo-imagery. With 5.2 ± 0.5 km3, this is the largest single subglacial drainage event reported so far in Antarctica. Elevation differences between ICESat laser altimetry and the SPOT5 DEM indicate that the discharge lasted approximately 2 yr. A 13-m uplift of the surface, corresponding to a refilling of about 0.64 ± 0.32 km3, was observed between the end of the discharge in October 2008 and February 2012. Using Envisat radar altimetry, with its high 35-day temporal resolution, we monitored the subsequent filling and drainage of connected subglacial lakes located downstream. In particular, a transient temporal signal can be detected within the theoretical 500-km long flow paths computed with the BEDMAP2 data set. The volume of water traveling in this wave is in agreement with the volume that drained from Lake CookE2. These observations contribute to a better understanding of the water transport beneath the East Antarctic ice sheet.

  8. Lake Michigan lake trout PCB model forecast post audit

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scenario forecasts for total PCBs in Lake Michigan (LM) lake trout were conducted using the linked LM2-Toxics and LM Food Chain models, supported by a suite of additional LM models. Efforts were conducted under the Lake Michigan Mass Balance Study and the post audit represents th...

  9. Boundary conditions of an active West Antarctic subglacial lake: implications for storage of water beneath the ice sheet

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. J. Siegert

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Repeat-pass IceSat altimetry has revealed 124 discrete surface height changes across the Antarctic Ice Sheet, interpreted to be caused by subglacial lake discharges (surface lowering and inputs (surface uplift. Few of these active lakes have been confirmed by radio-echo sounding (RES despite several attempts (notable exceptions are Lake Whillans and three in the Adventure Subglacial Trench. Here we present targeted RES and radar altimeter data from an "active lake" location within the upstream Institute Ice Stream, into which 0.12 km3 of water is calculated to have flowed between October 2003 and February 2008. We use a series of transects to establish an accurate appreciation of the influences of bed topography and ice-surface elevation on water storage potential. The location of surface height change is over the downslope flank of a distinct topographic hollow, where RES reveals no obvious evidence for deep (> 10 m water. The regional hydropotential reveals a sink coincident with the surface change, however. Governed by the location of the hydrological sink, basal water will likely "drape" over existing topography in a manner dissimilar to subglacial lakes where flat strong specular RES reflections are measured. The inability of RES to detect the active lake means that more of the Antarctic ice sheet bed may contain stored water than is currently appreciated. Variation in ice surface elevation datasets leads to significant alteration in calculations of the local flow of basal water indicating the value of, and need for, high resolution RES datasets in both space and time to establish and characterise subglacial hydrological processes.

  10. Reevaluation of lake trout and lake whitefish bioenergetics models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madenjian, Charles P.; Pothoven, Steve A.; Kao, Yu-Chun

    2013-01-01

    Using a corrected algorithm for balancing the energy budget, we reevaluated the Wisconsin bioenergetics model for lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) in the laboratory and for lake whitefish (Coregonus clupeaformis) in the laboratory and in the field. For lake trout, results showed that the bioenergetics model slightly overestimated food consumption by the lake trout when they were fed low and intermediate rations, whereas the model predicted food consumption by lake trout fed ad libitum without any detectable bias. The slight bias in model predictions for lake trout on restricted rations may have been an artifact of the feeding schedule for these fish, and we would therefore recommend application of the Wisconsin lake trout bioenergetics model to lake trout populations in the field without any revisions to the model. Use of the Wisconsin bioenergetics model for coregonids resulted in overestimation of food consumption by lake whitefish both in the laboratory and in the field by between 20 and 30%, on average. This overestimation of food consumption was most likely due to overestimation of respiration rate. We therefore adjusted the respiration component of the bioenergetics model to obtain a good fit to the observed consumption in our laboratory tanks. The adjusted model predicted the consumption in the laboratory and the field without any detectable bias. Until a detailed lake whitefish respiration study can be conducted, we recommend application of our adjusted version of the Wisconsin generalized coregonid bioenergetics model to lake whitefish populations in the field.

  11. Summer season variability of dissolved oxygen concentration in Antarctic lakes rich in cyanobaterial mats

    OpenAIRE

    Váczi Peter; Barták Miloš

    2011-01-01

    Since 2007, limnological investigation of terrestrial lakes has been carried out at James Ross Island, Antarctica. The lakes in scope differ in their size, origin, geomorphological and hydrological characteristics. In several selected lakes, dissolved oxygen is measured repeatedly each summer season in order to quantify lake- and weather-related differences. For this study, typical reresentatives of (i) coastal shalow lakes, and (ii) high-altitude lakes with cyanobacterial mats were chosen. W...

  12. When a habitat freezes solid: Microorganisms over-winter within the ice column of a coastal Antarctic lake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foreman, C.M.; Dieser, M.; Greenwood, M.; Cory, R.M.; Laybourn-Parry, J.; Lisle, J.T.; Jaros, C.; Miller, P.L.; Chin, Y.-P.; McKnight, Diane M.

    2011-01-01

    A major impediment to understanding the biology of microorganisms inhabiting Antarctic environments is the logistical constraint of conducting field work primarily during the summer season. However, organisms that persist throughout the year encounter severe environmental changes between seasons. In an attempt to bridge this gap, we collected ice core samples from Pony Lake in early November 2004 when the lake was frozen solid to its base, providing an archive for the biological and chemical processes that occurred during winter freezeup. The ice contained bacteria and virus-like particles, while flagellated algae and ciliates over-wintered in the form of inactive cysts and spores. Both bacteria and algae were metabolically active in the ice core melt water. Bacterial production ranged from 1.8 to 37.9??gCL-1day-1. Upon encountering favorable growth conditions in the melt water, primary production ranged from 51 to 931??gCL-1day-1. Because of the strong H2S odor and the presence of closely related anaerobic organisms assigned to Pony Lake bacterial 16S rRNA gene clones, we hypothesize that the microbial assemblage was strongly affected by oxygen gradients, which ultimately restricted the majority of phylotypes to distinct strata within the ice column. This study provides evidence that the microbial community over-winters in the ice column of Pony Lake and returns to a highly active metabolic state when spring melt is initiated. ?? 2011 Federation of European Microbiological Societies.

  13. Modelling of radiocaesium in lakes - lake sensitivity and remedial strategies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A given fallout of radiocesium (e.g. after the Chernobyl accident) will be distributed and taken up by biota very differently in various types of lake. Thus, lakes have different ''sensitivities'' to radiocesium. Important environmental factors regulating the biouptake of 137Cs are the lake water retention time and the K concentration of the water. Several practically useful and ecologically relevant methods exist to remediate lakes contaminated by radiocesium, e.g. liming, potash treatment and fertilization of low-productive lakes. The basic aim of this paper is to use a validated, state-of-the-art model for radiocesium in lakes, the VAMP model, first to illustrate the fact that different lakes have different 'sensitivities' and then to simulate the effects of alternative remedial methods. Target variables in these tests are Cs concentrations in lake water and in predatory fish. These results emanate from IAEAs VAMP project. The lakes included in this work cover a wide range of lake and catchment characteristics. (Author)

  14. Stable isotopic biogeochemistry of carbon and nitrogen in a perennially ice-covered Antarctic lake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wharton, R. A. Jr; Lyons, W. B.; Des Marais, D. J.; Wharton RA, J. r. (Principal Investigator)

    1993-01-01

    Lake Hoare (77 degrees 38' S, 162 degrees 53' E) is an amictic, oligotrophic, 34-m-deep, closed-basin lake in Taylor Valley, Antarctica. Its perennial ice cover minimizes wind-generated currents and reduces light penetration, as well as restricts sediment deposition into the lake and the exchange of atmospheric gases between the water column and the atmosphere. The biological community of Lake Hoare consists solely of microorganisms -- both planktonic populations and benthic microbial mats. Lake Hoare is one of several perennially ice-covered lakes in the McMurdo Dry Valleys that represent the end-member conditions of cold desert and saline lakes. The dry valley lakes provide a unique opportunity to examine lacustrine processes that operate at all latitudes, but under an extreme set of environmental conditions. The dry valley lakes may also offer a valuable record of catchment and global changes in the past and present. Furthermore, these lakes are modern-day equivalents of periglacial lakes that are likely to have been common during periods of glacial maxima at temperate latitudes. We have analyzed the dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) of Lake Hoare for delta 13C and the organic matter of the sediments and sediment-trap material for delta 13C and delta 15N. The delta 13C of the DIC indicates that 12C is differentially removed in the shallow, oxic portions of the lake via photosynthesis. In the anoxic portions of the lake (27-34 m) a net addition of 12C to the DIC pool occurs via organic matter decomposition. The dissolution of CaCO3 at depth also contributes to the DIC pool. Except near the Canada Glacier where a substantial amount of allochthonous organic matter enters the lake, the organic carbon being deposited on the lake bottom at different sites is isotopically similar, suggesting an autochthonous source for the organic carbon. Preliminary inorganic carbon flux calculations suggest that a high percentage of the organic carbon fixed in the water column is

  15. Study of the Microbial Diversity of a Newly Discovered East Antarctic Freshwater Lake, L27C, and of a Perennially Ice-Covered Lake Untersee

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Jonathan P.; Hoover, Richard B.; Andersen, Dale; Bej, Asim K.

    2010-01-01

    The microbial communities that reside within freshwater lakes of Schirmacher and Untersee Oases in East Antarctica must cope with extreme conditions that may include cold temperature, annual freeze-thaw cycles, exposure to UV radiation, especially during the austral summer months, low light beneath thick ice-cover, followed by seasonal darkness. The objective of this study was to assess the microbial biodiversity and distribution from samples taken from two freshwater lakes (L27C and Lake Untersee) that were collected during the Tawani 2008 International Antarctic Expedition that conducted research in this region of Antarctica. L27C is a small, previously unreported lake residing 2 km WNW of Maitri Station at Schirmacher Oasis. Biodiversity and distribution of microorganisms within the lake were studied using both culture-independent and culture-dependent methodologies based upon the analysis of eubacterial 16S rRNA gene sequences. Lake Untersee, a perennially ice-covered, ultra-oligotrophic, lake in the Otto-von-Gruber-Gebirge (Gruber Mountains) of central Dronning Maud Land was also sampled and the microbial diversity was analyzed by eubacterial 16S rRNA gene sequences derived from pure cultures. Direct culturing of water samples from each lake on separate R2A growth medium exhibited a variety of microorganisms including: Janthinobacterium, Hymenobacter, Sphingamonas, Subtercola, Deinococcus, Arthrobacter, Flavobacterium, Polaromonas, Rhodoferax and Duganella. The evaluation of samples from L27C through culture-independent methodology identified a rich microbial diversity consisting of six different phyla of bacteria. The culture-independent analysis also displayed the majority of bacteria (56%) belonged to the Class gamma-proteobacteria within the phylum Proteobacteria. Within the Class gamma-proteobacteria, Acinetobacter dominated (48%) the total microbial load. Overall, L27C exhibited 7 different phyla of bacteria and 20 different genera. Statistical analysis

  16. Factors Affecting High-Oxygen Survival of Heterotrophic Microorganisms from an Antarctic Lake

    OpenAIRE

    Mikell, Alfred T.; Parker, B. C.; Gregory, E M

    1986-01-01

    We sought to determine factors relating to the survival of heterotrophic microorganisms from the high-dissolved-oxygen (HDO) waters of Lake Hoare, Antarctica. This lake contains perpetual HDO about three times that of normal saturation (40 to 50 mg liter−1). Five isolates, one yeast and four bacteria, were selected from Lake Hoare waters by growth with the membrane filter technique with oxygen added to yield dissolved concentrations 14 times that in situ, 175 mg liter−1. One bacterial isolate...

  17. Dissolved black carbon in Antarctic lakes: Chemical signatures of past and present sources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khan, Alia L.; Jaffé, Rudolf; Ding, Yan; McKnight, Diane M.

    2016-06-01

    The perennially ice-covered, closed-basin lakes in the McMurdo Dry Valleys, Antarctica, serve as sentinels for understanding the fate of dissolved black carbon from glacial sources in aquatic ecosystems. Here we show that dissolved black carbon can persist in freshwater and saline surface waters for thousands of years, while preserving the chemical signature of the original source materials. The ancient brines of the lake bottom waters have retained dissolved black carbon with a woody chemical signature, representing long-range transport of black carbon from wildfires. In contrast, the surface waters are enriched in contemporary black carbon from fossil fuel combustion. Comparison of samples collected 25 years apart from the same lake suggests that the enrichment in anthropogenic black carbon is recent. Differences in the chemical composition of dissolved black carbon among the lakes are likely due to biogeochemical processing such as photochemical degradation and sorption on metal oxides.

  18. Evaluation of a lake whitefish bioenergetics model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madenjian, Charles P.; O'Connor, Daniel V.; Pothoven, Steven A.; Schneeberger, Philip J.; Rediske, Richard R.; O'Keefe, James P.; Bergstedt, Roger A.; Argyle, Ray L.; Brandt, Stephen B.

    2006-01-01

    We evaluated the Wisconsin bioenergetics model for lake whitefish Coregonus clupeaformis in the laboratory and in the field. For the laboratory evaluation, lake whitefish were fed rainbow smelt Osmerus mordax in four laboratory tanks during a 133-d experiment. Based on a comparison of bioenergetics model predictions of lake whitefish food consumption and growth with observed consumption and growth, we concluded that the bioenergetics model furnished significantly biased estimates of both food consumption and growth. On average, the model overestimated consumption by 61% and underestimated growth by 16%. The source of the bias was probably an overestimation of the respiration rate. We therefore adjusted the respiration component of the bioenergetics model to obtain a good fit of the model to the observed consumption and growth in our laboratory tanks. Based on the adjusted model, predictions of food consumption over the 133-d period fell within 5% of observed consumption in three of the four tanks and within 9% of observed consumption in the remaining tank. We used polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) as a tracer to evaluate model performance in the field. Based on our laboratory experiment, the efficiency with which lake whitefish retained PCBs from their food (I?) was estimated at 0.45. We applied the bioenergetics model to Lake Michigan lake whitefish and then used PCB determinations of both lake whitefish and their prey from Lake Michigan to estimate p in the field. Application of the original model to Lake Michigan lake whitefish yielded a field estimate of 0.28, implying that the original formulation of the model overestimated consumption in Lake Michigan by 61%. Application of the bioenergetics model with the adjusted respiration component resulted in a field I? estimate of 0.56, implying that this revised model underestimated consumption by 20%.

  19. Model decay in the Australia-Antarctic basin

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Weijer, Wilbert [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Gille, Sarah T [UCSD; Vivier, Frederic [LOCEAN-IPSL

    2008-01-01

    The barotropic intraseasonal variability in the Australia-Antarctic Basin (AAB) is studied in terms of the excitation and decay of topographically-trapped barotropic modes. The main objective is to reconcile two widely differing estimates of the decay rate of SSH anomalies in the AAB that are assumed to be related to barotropic modes. First, an Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis is applied to almost 15 years of altimeter data. The analysis suggests that several modes are involved in the variability of the AAB, each related to distinct areas with (almost) closed contours of potential vorticity. Second, the dominant normal modes of the AAB are determined in a barotropic shallow-water (SW) model. These stationary modes are confined by the closed contours of potential vorticity that surround the eastern AAB, and the crest of the Southeast Indian Ridge. For reasonable values of horizontal eddy viscosity and bottom friction, their decay time scale is of the order of several weeks. Third, the SW model is forced with realistic winds and integrated for several years. Projection of the modal velocity patterns onto the output fields shows that the barotropic modes are indeed excited in the model, and that they decay slowly on the frictional O(3 weeks) time scale. However, the SSH anomalies in the modal areas display rapid O(4 days) decay. Additional analysis shows that this rapid decay reflects the adjustment of unbalanced flow components through the emission of Rossby waves. Resonant excitation of the dominant free modes accounts for about 20% of the SSH variability in the forced model run. Other mechanisms are suggested to explain the region of high SSH variability in the AAB.

  20. Monitoring and Modelling Lakes and Coastal Environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Odada, Eric

    2009-01-01

    The monitoring and modeling of lakes and coastal environments is becoming ever more important, particularly because these environments bear heavy loads in terms of human population, and their resources are critical to the livelihoods and well-being of coastal inhabitants and ecosystems. Monitoring and Modelling Lakes and Coastal Environments is a collection of 18 papers arising from the Lake 2004 International Conference on Conservation, Restoration and Management of Lakes and Coastal Wetlands, held in Bhubaneswar, Orissa, India, 9-13 December 2004. Consequently, 15 of the papers are concerned with studies on the Indian subcontinent, and many of the papers focus on India's Lake Chilika, the site of a special session during the conference. Two papers concern Japan, and one focuses on North America's Great Lakes region. Although the book has a regional bias, the replication of best practices that can be drawn from these studies may be useful for an international audience.

  1. Model studies of the effects of global warming and Antarctic sea ice changes on Antarctic and global climates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The authors discuss the results obtained in three experiments by changing the global ocean temperatures and the concentration and distribution of Antarctic sea ice in a General Circulation Model of July climate, with a view to determining the local and global impacts of Antarctic sea ice variations alone, as distinct with those coupled with global scale temperature changes which may be associated with global warming. In all cases there were significant changes in the upward flux of sensible heat over the sea ice zone associated with the reductions of sea ice. The response of weaker westerlies between 40 and 65 degree S was common to all three experiments. Their analyses suggest that a significant proportion of this is a response to the change in sea ice concentration alone. (Not surprisingly, further north of this region most of the changes induced in the wind structure in the global forcing experiment can be seen as due unambiguously to the differential changes in ocean temperatures.). This weakening of the westerlies means there is less mechanical forcing of the ocean in this region. From this they suggest that when consideration is given to the possible impact of feedbacks not considered in these experiments, sea ice changes alone, and particularly those in the Southern Hemisphere, have the potential to induce changes on a hemispheric scale

  2. Microbial Mat Communities along an Oxygen Gradient in a Perennially Ice-Covered Antarctic Lake.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jungblut, Anne D; Hawes, Ian; Mackey, Tyler J; Krusor, Megan; Doran, Peter T; Sumner, Dawn Y; Eisen, Jonathan A; Hillman, Colin; Goroncy, Alexander K

    2016-01-01

    Lake Fryxell is a perennially ice-covered lake in the McMurdo Dry Valleys, Antarctica, with a sharp oxycline in a water column that is density stabilized by a gradient in salt concentration. Dissolved oxygen falls from 20 mg liter(-1) to undetectable over one vertical meter from 8.9- to 9.9-m depth. We provide the first description of the benthic mat community that falls within this oxygen gradient on the sloping floor of the lake, using a combination of micro- and macroscopic morphological descriptions, pigment analysis, and 16S rRNA gene bacterial community analysis. Our work focused on three macroscopic mat morphologies that were associated with different parts of the oxygen gradient: (i) "cuspate pinnacles" in the upper hyperoxic zone, which displayed complex topography and were dominated by phycoerythrin-rich cyanobacteria attributable to the genus Leptolyngbya and a diverse but sparse assemblage of pennate diatoms; (ii) a less topographically complex "ridge-pit" mat located immediately above the oxic-anoxic transition containing Leptolyngbya and an increasing abundance of diatoms; and (iii) flat prostrate mats in the upper anoxic zone, dominated by a green cyanobacterium phylogenetically identified as Phormidium pseudopriestleyi and a single diatom, Diadesmis contenta. Zonation of bacteria was by lake depth and by depth into individual mats. Deeper mats had higher abundances of bacteriochlorophylls and anoxygenic phototrophs, including Chlorobi and Chloroflexi. This suggests that microbial communities form assemblages specific to niche-like locations. Mat morphologies, underpinned by cyanobacterial and diatom composition, are the result of local habitat conditions likely defined by irradiance and oxygen and sulfide concentrations. PMID:26567300

  3. MICRO-INVERTEBRATE COMMUNITY STRUCTURE WITHIN A MARITIME ANTARCTIC LAKE (Eleventh Symposium on Polar Biology)

    OpenAIRE

    Sandra J., McINNES; J. Cynan, ELLIS-EVANS

    1990-01-01

    The data set discussed here was obtained from a transect across a depth profile in Sombre Lake (Signy Island, South Orkney Islands). The fauna, composed of benthonic micro-invertebrates, was readily observed grazing on the surface of the cyanobacterial mats that form a thin cover on the surface of the sediments. Algal mat composition varied in response to factors such as light, climate, and ice scour. Micro-invertebrate species diversity was limited, but population numbers were high. The resu...

  4. Post Audit of Lake Michigan Lake Trout PCB Model Forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Lake Michigan (LM) Mass Balance Study was conducted to measure and model polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and other anthropogenic substances to gain a better understanding of the transport, fate, and effects of these substances within the system and to aid managers in the env...

  5. Lake Evaporation: A Model Study

    OpenAIRE

    Amayreh, Jumah

    1995-01-01

    Reliable evaporation data are an essential requirement in any water and/or energy budget studies. This includes operation and management of both urban and agricultural water resources. Evaporation from large, open water surfaces such as lakes and reservoirs may influence many agricultural and irrigation decisions. In this study evaporation from Bear Lake in the states of Idaho and Utah was measured using advanced research instruments (Bowen Ratio and Eddy Correlation). Actual over-lake evapor...

  6. Part 2: Sedimentary geology of the Valles, Marineris, Mars and Antarctic dry valley lakes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Detailed mapping of the layered deposits in the Valles Marineris, Mars from high-resolution Viking orbiter images revealed that they from plateaus of rhythmically layered material whose bases are in the lowest elevations of the canyon floors, and whose tops are within a few hundred meters in elevation of the surrounding plateaus. Four hypotheses for the origin of the layered deposits were considered: that they are eolian deposits; that they are remnants of the same material as the canyon walls; that they are explosive volcanic deposits; or that they were deposited in standing bodies of water. There are serious morphologic objections to each of the first three. The deposition of the layered deposits in standing bodies of water best explains their lateral continuity, horizontality, great thickness, rhythmic nature, and stratigraphic relationships with other units within the canyons. The Martian climatic history indicated that any ancient lakes were ice covered. Two methods for transporting sediment through a cover of ice on a martian lake appear to be feasible. Based on the presently available data, along with the theoretical calculations presented, it appears most likely that the layered deposits in the Valles Marineris were laid down in standing bodies of water

  7. Chemoautotrophic Bacterial Production in the Redoxycline of an Ice-Covered Antarctic Lake (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mikucki, J.; Kong, W.; Priscu, J. C.; Morgan-Kiss, R.

    2010-12-01

    Chemolithoautotrophic organisms obtain energy for growth from inorganic substrates and use simple inorganic carbon molecules to construct biomass. As such, chemosynthetic processes are tightly linked to biogeochemical cycles. In polar regions, winter darkness shuts down photosynthetic inputs and the contribution of chemosynthesis to total ecosystem energetics and carbon fixation may be significant. Few reports exist on chemosynthesis in polar environments and the rates of these processes remain largely unexplored. Here we present data on chemoautotrophic activity in the redoxycline (~15m depth) of the permanently ice-covered Lake Bonney in the McMurdo Dry Valleys, Antarctica (MCM). Rates of radio-labeled bicarbonate incorporation were measured under light and dark conditions using whole community and bacterial sized-fraction (< 3 μm) samples. Rates of uptake in the bacterial sized-fraction (0.18 μg C L-1 d-1) were comparable to that of heterotrophic bacterial activity (0.16 μg C L-1 d-1) as measured by radio-labeled thymidine incorporation. Molecular analyses of the (cbbM) Rubisco gene, a key enzyme in the Calvin cycle, revealed relatives to the Thiobacillus genera confirming the genomic potential for in situ bacterial carbon fixation. Further, quantification of cbbM gene copy number by real time PCR from samples collected throughout the trophogenic zones of the west and east lobes of Lake Bonney confirmed that chemotrophic bacteria harboring form II RubisCO are restricted to depths at or below the redoxycline of the west lobe. These data provide insight into the structure-function relationship between the microbial consortia and carbon budget and imply that chemoautotrophic production in the MCM may provide a significant source of previously un-quantified fixed carbon to the lake system. Studies on other icy systems, including dark, isolated subglacial environments report evidence for chemolithoautotrophy suggesting that chemoautotrophic production can sustain

  8. Great Lakes water quality scenario models: Operational feasibility -Lake Michigan Mass Balance models

    Science.gov (United States)

    An overview of the Lake Michigan Mass Balance models were provided (eutrophication/nutrients, atrazine, mercury, and PCBs) with emphasis on the PCB model post-audit and forecast for Lake Trout. Provided were modeling construct, model description, and primary results. An assessm...

  9. Formulation, calibration and validation of the DAIS model (version 1), a simple Antarctic ice sheet model sensitive to variations of sea level and ocean subsurface temperature

    OpenAIRE

    Shaffer, G.

    2014-01-01

    The DCESS (Danish Center for Earth System Science) Antarctic Ice Sheet (DAIS) model is presented. Model hindcasts of Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) sea level equivalent are forced by reconstructed Antarctic temperatures, global mean sea level and high-latitude, ocean subsurface temperatures, the latter calculated using the DCESS model forced by reconstructed global mean atmospheric temperatures. The model is calibrated by comparing such hindcasts for different model configurations w...

  10. Biogeochemistry and limnology in Antarctic subglacial weathering: molecular evidence of the linkage between subglacial silica input and primary producers in a perennially ice-covered lake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takano, Yoshinori; Kojima, Hisaya; Takeda, Eriko; Yokoyama, Yusuke; Fukui, Manabu

    2015-12-01

    We report a 6,000 years record of subglacial weathering and biogeochemical processes in two perennially ice-covered glacial lakes at Rundvågshetta, on the Soya Coast of Lützow-Holm Bay, East Antarctica. The two lakes, Lake Maruwan Oike and Lake Maruwan-minami, are located in a channel that drains subglacial water from the base of the East Antarctic ice sheet. Greenish-grayish organic-rich laminations in sediment cores from the lakes indicate continuous primary production affected by the inflow of subglacial meltwater containing relict carbon, nitrogen, sulfur, and other essential nutrients. Biogenic silica, amorphous hydrated silica, and DNA-based molecular signatures of sedimentary facies indicate that diatom assemblages are the dominant primary producers, supported by the input of inorganic silicon (Si) from the subglacial inflow. This study highlights the significance of subglacial water-rock interactions during physical and chemical weathering processes and the importance of such interactions for the supply of bioavailable nutrients.

  11. The influence of a model subglacial lake on ice dynamics and internal layering

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Gudlaugsson

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available As ice flows over a subglacial lake, the drop in bed resistance leads to an increase in ice velocities and a subsequent draw-down of isochrones and cold ice from the surface. The ice surface flattens as it adjusts to the lack of resisting forces at the base. The rapid transition in velocity induces changes in temperature and ice viscosity, releasing deformation energy which raises the temperature locally. Recent studies of Antarctic subglacial lakes indicate that many lakes experience very fast and possibly episodic drainage, during which the lake size is rapidly reduced as water flows out. A question is what effect this would have on internal layers within the ice, and whether such past events could be inferred from isochrone structures downstream. Here, we study the effect of a subglacial lake on the dynamics of a model ice stream as well as the influence that such short timescale drainage would have on the internal layers of the ice. To this end, we use a Full–Stokes, polythermal ice flow model. An enthalpy gradient method is used to account for the evolution of temperature and water content within the ice. We find that the rapid transition between slow-moving ice outside the lake, and full sliding over the lake, releases large amounts of deformational energy, which has the potential to form a temperate layer at depth in the transition zone. In addition, we provide an explanation for a characteristic surface feature, commonly seen at the edges of subglacial lakes, a hummocky surface depression in the transition zone between little to full sliding. We also conclude that rapid changes in lake geometry or basal friction create a travelling wave at depth within the isochrone structure that transfers downstream with the advection of ice, thus indicating the possibility of detecting past events with ice penetrating radar.

  12. A model assessment of the ability of lake water in Terra Nova Bay, Antarctica, to induce the photochemical degradation of emerging contaminants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minella, Marco; Maurino, Valter; Minero, Claudio; Vione, Davide

    2016-11-01

    The shallow lakes located in Terra Nova Bay, Antarctica, are free from ice for only up to a couple of months (mid December to early/mid February) during the austral summer. In the rest of the year, the ice cover shields the light and inhibits the photochemical processes in the water columns. Previous work has shown that chromophoric dissolved organic matter (CDOM) in these lakes is very reactive photochemically. A model assessment is here provided of lake-water photoreactivity in field conditions, based on experimental data of lake water absorption spectra, chemistry and photochemistry obtained previously, taking into account the water depth and the irradiation conditions of the Antarctic summer. The chosen sample contaminants were the solar filter benzophenone-3 and the antimicrobial agent triclosan, which have very well known photoreactivity and have been found in a variety of environmental matrices in the Antarctic continent. The two compounds would have a half-life time of just a few days or less in the lake water during the Antarctic summertime, largely due to reaction with CDOM triplet states ((3)CDOM*). In general, pollutants that occur in the ice and could be released to lake water upon ice melting (around or soon after the December solstice) would be quickly photodegraded if they undergo fast reaction with (3)CDOM*. With some compounds, the important (3)CDOM* reactions might favour the production of harmful secondary pollutants, such as 2,8-dichlorodibenzodioxin from the basic (anionic) form of triclosan. PMID:27487093

  13. The influence of a model subglacial lake on ice dynamics and internal layering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gudlaugsson, Eythor; Humbert, Angelika; Kleiner, Thomas; Kohler, Jack; Andreassen, Karin

    2016-04-01

    As ice flows over a subglacial lake, the drop in bed resistance leads to an increase in ice velocities and a draw down of isochrones and cold ice. The ice surface flattens as it adjusts to the lack of resisting forces at the base. The rapid transition in velocity induces changes in ice viscosity and releases deformation energy that can raise the temperature locally. Recent studies of Antarctic subglacial lakes indicate that many lakes experience very fast and possibly episodic drainage, during which the lake size is rapidly reduced as water flows out. Questions that arise are what effect this would have on internal layers within the ice and whether such past drainage events could be inferred from isochrone structures downstream. Here, we study the effect of a subglacial lake on ice dynamics as well as the influence that such short timescale drainage would have on the internal layers of the ice. To this end, we use a full Stokes, polythermal ice flow model. An enthalpy-gradient method is used to account for the evolution of temperature and water content within the ice. We find that a rapid transition between slow-moving ice outside the lake, and full sliding over the lake, can release considerable amounts of deformational energy, with the potential to form a temperate layer at depth in the transition zone. In addition, we provide an explanation for a characteristic surface feature commonly seen at the edges of subglacial lakes, a hummocky surface depression in the transition zone between little to full sliding. We also conclude that rapid changes in the horizontal extent of subglacial lakes and slippery patches, compared to the average ice column velocity, can create a traveling wave at depth within the isochrone structure that transfers downstream with the advection of ice, thus indicating the possibility of detecting past drainage events with ice penetrating radar.

  14. Laser-Induced Fluorescence Emission (L.I.F.E.): In Situ Nondestructive Detection of Microbial Life in the Ice Covers of Antarctic Lakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Storrie-Lombardi, Michael C.; Sattler, Birgit

    2009-09-01

    Laser-induced fluorescence emission (L.I.F.E.) images were obtained in situ following 532 nm excitation of cryoconite assemblages in the ice covers of annual and perennially frozen Antarctic lakes during the 2008 Tawani International Expedition to Schirmacher Oasis and Lake Untersee in Dronning Maud Land, Antarctica. Laser targeting of a single millimeter-scale cryoconite results in multiple neighboring excitation events secondary to ice/air interface reflection and refraction in the bubbles surrounding the primary target. Laser excitation at 532 nm of cyanobacteria-dominated assemblages produced red and infrared autofluorescence activity attributed to the presence of phycoerythrin photosynthetic pigments. The method avoids destruction of individual target organisms and does not require the disruption of either the structure of the microbial community or the surrounding ice matrix. L.I.F.E. survey strategies described may be of interest for orbital monitoring of photosynthetic primary productivity in polar and alpine glaciers, ice sheets, snow, and lake ice of Earth's cryosphere. The findings open up the possibility of searching from either a rover or from orbit covers of annual and perennially frozen Antarctic lakes during the 2008 Tawani International Expedition to Schirmacher Oasis and Lake Untersee in Dronning Maud Land, Antarctica. Laser targeting of a single millimeter-scale cryoconite results in multiple neighboring excitation events secondary to ice/air interface reflection and refraction in the bubbles surrounding the primary target. Laser excitation at 532 nm of cyanobacteria-dominated assemblages produced red and infrared autofluorescence activity attributed to the presence of phycoerythrin photosynthetic pigments. The method avoids destruction of individual target organisms and does not require the disruption of either the structure of the microbial community or the surrounding ice matrix. L.I.F.E. survey strategies described may be of interest for

  15. Climate Model Dependency and Understanding the Antarctic Ice Sheet during the Warm Late Pliocene

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dolan, Aisling; de Boer, Bas; Bernales, Jorge; Hunter, Stephen; Haywood, Alan

    2016-04-01

    In the context of future climate change, understanding the nature and behaviour of ice sheets during warm intervals of Earth history is fundamentally important. A warm period in the Late Pliocene (3.264 to 3.025 million years before present) can serve as a potential analogue for projected future climates. Although Pliocene ice locations and extents are still poorly constrained, a significant contribution to sea-level rise should be expected from both the Greenland ice sheet and the West and East Antarctic ice sheets based on palaeo sea-level reconstructions and geological evidence. Following a five year international project PLISMIP (Pliocene Ice Sheet Modeling Intercomparison Project) we present the final set of results which quantify uncertainty in climate model-based predictions of the Antarctic ice sheet. In this study we use an ensemble of climate model forcings within a multi-ice sheet model framework to assess the climate (model) dependency of large scale features of the Antarctic ice sheet. Seven coupled atmosphere-ocean climate models are used to derive surface temperature, precipitation and oceanic forcing that drive three ice sheet models (over the grounded and floating domain). Similar to results presented over Greenland, we show that the reconstruction of the Antarctic ice sheet is sensitive to which climate model is used to provide the forcing field. Key areas of uncertainty include West Antarctica, the large subglacial basins of East Antarctica and the overall thickness of the continental interior of East Antarctica. We relate the results back to geological proxy data, such as those relating to exposure rates which provide information on potential ice sheet thickness. Finally we discuss as to whether the choice of modelling framework (i.e. climate model and ice sheet model used) or the choice of boundary conditions causes the greatest uncertainty in ice sheet reconstructions of the warm Pliocene.

  16. Antarctic ice sheet GLIMMER model test and its simplified model on 2-dimensional ice flow

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Xueyuan Tang; Zhanhai Zhang; Bo Sun; Yuansheng Li; Na Li; Bangbing Wang; Xiangpei Zhang

    2008-01-01

    The 3-dimensional finite difference thermodynamic coupled model on Antarctic ice sheet, GLIMMER model, is described. An ide-alized ice sheet numerical test was conducted under the EISMINT-I benchmark, and the characteristic curves of ice sheets under steady state were obtained. Based on this, this model was simplified from a 3-dimensional one to 2-dimensional one. Improvement of the dif-ference method and coordinate system was proposed. Evolution of the 2-dimensional ice flow was simulated under coupled temperature field conditions. The results showed that the characteristic curves deriving from the conservation of the mass, momentum and energy agree with the results of ice sheet profile simulated with GLIMMER model and with the theoretical results. The application prospect of the simplified 2-dimensional ice flow model to simulate the relation of age-depth-accumulation in Dome A region was discussed.

  17. Lake Michigan lake trout PCB model forecast post audit (oral presentation)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scenario forecasts for total PCBs in Lake Michigan (LM) lake trout were conducted using the linked LM2-Toxics and LM Food Chain models, supported by a suite of additional LM models. Efforts were conducted under the Lake Michigan Mass Balance Study and the post audit represents an...

  18. Large-scale distribution analysis of Antarctic echinoids using ecological niche modelling

    OpenAIRE

    Pierrat, B.; Saucede, T.; Laffont, R.; De Ridder, C.; Festeau, A.; David, B.

    2012-01-01

    Understanding the factors that determine the distribution of taxa at various spatial scales is a crucial challenge in the context of global climate change. This holds particularly true for polar marine biota that are composed of both highly adapted and vulnerable faunas. We analysed the distribution of 2 Antarctic echinoid species, Sterechinus antarcticus and S. neumayeri, at the scale of the entire Southern Ocean using 2 niche modelling procedures. The performance of distribution models was ...

  19. Evaluating Antarctic sea ice predictability at seasonal to interannual timescales in global climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marchi, Sylvain; Fichefet, Thierry; Goosse, Hugues; Zunz, Violette; Tietsche, Steffen; Day, Jonny; Hawkins, Ed

    2016-04-01

    Unlike the rapid sea ice losses reported in the Arctic, satellite observations show an overall increase in Antarctic sea ice extent over recent decades. Although many processes have already been suggested to explain this positive trend, it remains the subject of current investigations. Understanding the evolution of the Antarctic sea ice turns out to be more complicated than for the Arctic for two reasons: the lack of observations and the well-known biases of climate models in the Southern Ocean. Irrespective of those issues, another one is to determine whether the positive trend in sea ice extent would have been predictable if adequate observations and models were available some decades ago. This study of Antarctic sea ice predictability is carried out using 6 global climate models (HadGEM1.2, MPI-ESM-LR, GFDL CM3, EC-Earth V2, MIROC 5.2 and ECHAM 6-FESOM) which are all part of the APPOSITE project. These models are used to perform hindcast simulations in a perfect model approach. The predictive skill is estimated thanks to the PPP (Potential Prognostic Predictability) and the ACC (Anomaly Correlation Coefficient). The former is a measure of the uncertainty of the ensemble while the latter assesses the accuracy of the prediction. These two indicators are applied to different variables related to sea ice, in particular the total sea ice extent and the ice edge location. This first model intercomparison study about sea ice predictability in the Southern Ocean aims at giving a general overview of Antarctic sea ice predictability in current global climate models.

  20. Ecological niche modeling of sympatric krill predators around Marguerite Bay, Western Antarctic Peninsula

    Science.gov (United States)

    Friedlaender, Ari S.; Johnston, David W.; Fraser, William R.; Burns, Jennifer; Halpin, Patrick N.; Costa, Daniel P.

    2011-07-01

    Adélie penguins ( Pygoscelis adeliae), carabeater seals ( Lobodon carcinophagus), humpback ( Megaptera novaeangliae), and minke whales ( Balaenoptera bonaernsis) are found in the waters surrounding the Western Antarctic Peninsula. Each species relies primarily on Antarctic krill ( Euphausia superba) and has physiological constraints and foraging behaviors that dictate their ecological niches. Understanding the degree of ecological overlap between sympatric krill predators is critical to understanding and predicting the impacts on climate-driven changes to the Antarctic marine ecosystem. To explore ecological relationships amongst sympatric krill predators, we developed ecological niche models using a maximum entropy modeling approach (Maxent) that allows the integration of data collected by a variety of means (e.g. satellite-based locations and visual observations). We created spatially explicit probability distributions for the four krill predators in fall 2001 and 2002 in conjunction with a suite of environmental variables. We find areas within Marguerite Bay with high krill predator occurrence rates or biological hot spots. We find the modeled ecological niches for Adélie penguins and crabeater seals may be affected by their physiological needs to haul-out on substrate. Thus, their distributions may be less dictated by proximity to prey and more so by physical features that over time provide adequate access to prey. Humpback and minke whales, being fully marine and having greater energetic demands, occupy ecological niches more directly proximate to prey. We also find evidence to suggest that the amount of overlap between modeled niches is relatively low, even for species with similar energetic requirements. In a rapidly changing and variable environment, our modeling work shows little indication that krill predators maintain similar ecological niches across years around Marguerite Bay. Given the amount of variability in the marine environment around the

  1. Lagrangian photochemical modeling studies of the 1987 Antarctic spring vortex. II - Seasonal trends in ozone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Austin, J.; Jones, R. L.; Mckenna, D. S.; Buckland, A. T.; Anderson, J. G.; Fahey, D. W.; Farmer, C. B.; Heidt, L. E.; Proffitt, M. H.; Vedder, J. F.

    1989-01-01

    A photochemical model consisting of 40 species and 107 reactions is integrated along 80-day air parcel trajectories calculated in the lower stratosphere for the springtime Antarctic. For the trajectory starting at 58 deg S, which may be regarded as outside the circumpolar vortex, only a small change in O3 occurs in the model. In contrast, for the air parcel starting in the vortex at 74 deg S, the O3 concentration is reduced by 93 percent during the 80 days from the beginning of August to late October. The model results for several species are compared with measurements from the Airborne Antarctic Ozone Experiment and, in general, good agreement is obtained. In the model, the dentrification of the air parcels in polar stratospheric clouds increases the amount of chlorine present in active form. Heterogeneous reactions maintain high active chlorine which destroys O3 via the formation of the ClO dimer. Results of calculations with reduced concentrations of inorganic chlorine show considerably reduced O3 destruction rates and compare favorably with the behavior of total O3 since the late 1970s. The remaining major uncertainties in the photochemical aspects of the Antarctic ozone hole are highlighted.

  2. The transition from diffuse to focused extension: Modeled evolution of the West Antarctic Rift system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huerta, Audrey D.; Harry, Dennis L.

    2007-03-01

    Two distinct stages of extension are recognized in the West Antarctic Rift system (WARS). During the first stage, beginning in the Late Cretaceous, extension was broadly distributed throughout much of West Antarctica. A second stage of extension in the late Paleogene was focused primarily in the Victoria Land Basin, near the boundary with the East Antarctic craton. The transition to focused extension was roughly coeval with volcanic activity and strike-slip faulting in the adjacent Transantarctic Mountains. This spatial and temporal correspondence suggests that the transition in extensional style could be the result of a change in plate motions or impingement of a plume. Here we use finite element models to study the processes and conditions responsible for the two-stage evolution of rifting in the WARS. Model results indicate that the transition from a prolonged period of broadly distributed extension to a later period of focused rifting did not require a change in the regional stress regime (changes in plate motion), or deep mantle thermal state (impingement of a plume). Instead, we attribute the transition from diffuse to focused extension to an early stage dominated by the initially weak accreted lithosphere of West Antarctica, and a later stage that concentrated around a secondary weakness located at the boundary between the juvenile West Antarctica lithosphere and Precambrian East Antarctic craton. The modeled transition in extension from the initially weak West Antarctica region to the secondary weakness at the West Antarctic-East Antarctic boundary is precipitated by strengthening of the West Antarctica lithosphere during syn-extensional thinning and cooling. The modeled syn-extensional strengthening of the WARS lithosphere promotes a wide-rift mode of extension between 105 and ˜ 65 Ma. By ˜ 65 Ma most of the extending WARS region becomes stronger than the area immediately adjacent to the East Antarctic craton and extension becomes concentrated near the

  3. Interactive effects of warming and species loss on model Antarctic microbial food webs

    OpenAIRE

    Newsham, K.K.; Garstecki, T.

    2007-01-01

    1. Predicting the effects of warming and species loss on ecosystems are two significant challenges currently facing ecologists. However, little is known of the interactive effects of these two factors. We hence tested whether or not warming and species loss interact to influence productivity and dissolved nitrogen concentrations in model Antarctic microbial food webs. Food webs, consisting of a uniform bacterial community and mixtures of six, four, two and zero bacterivorous flagellate specie...

  4. Antarctic 20th Century Accumulation Changes Based on Regional Climate Model Simulations

    OpenAIRE

    Dörthe Handorf; Annette Rinke; Ksenia Glushak; Klaus Dethloff

    2010-01-01

    The regional climate model HIRHAM has been applied to Antarctica driven at the lateral and lower boundaries by European Reanalysis data ERA-40 for the period 1958–1998. Simulations over 4 decades, carried out with a horizontal resolution of 50 km, deliver a realistic simulation of the Antarctic atmospheric circulation, synoptic-scale pressure systems, and the spatial distribution of precipitation minus sublimation (P-E) structures. The simulated P-E pattern is in qualitative agreement with gl...

  5. Preliminary evaluation of a lake whitefish (Coregonus clupeaformis) bioenergetics model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madenjian, Charles P.; Pothoven, Steven A.; Schneeberger, Philip J.; O'Connor, Daniel V.; Brandt, Stephen B.

    2005-01-01

    We conducted a preliminary evaluation of a lake whitefish (Coregonus clupeaformis) bioenergetics model by applying the model to size-at-age data for lake whitefish from northern Lake Michigan. We then compared estimates of gross growth efficiency (GGE) from our bioenergetis model with previously published estimates of GGE for bloater (C. hoyi) in Lake Michigan and for lake whitefish in Quebec. According to our model, the GGE of Lake Michigan lake whitefish decreased from 0.075 to 0.02 as age increased from 2 to 5 years. In contrast, the GGE of lake whitefish in Quebec inland waters decreased from 0.12 to 0.05 for the same ages. When our swimming-speed submodel was replaced with a submodel that had been used for lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) in Lake Michigan and an observed predator energy density for Lake Michigan lake whitefish was employed, our model predicted that the GGE of Lake Michigan lake whitefish decreased from 0.12 to 0.04 as age increased from 2 to 5 years.

  6. Origin and fate of Lake Vostok water frozen to the base of the East Antarctic ice sheet.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bell, Robin E; Studinger, Michael; Tikku, Anahita A; Clarke, Garry K C; Gutner, Michael M; Meertens, Chuck

    2002-03-21

    The subglacial Lake Vostok may be a unique reservoir of genetic material and it may contain organisms with distinct adaptations, but it has yet to be explored directly. The lake and the overlying ice sheet are closely linked, as the ice-sheet thickness drives the lake circulation, while melting and freezing at the ice-sheet base will control the flux of water, biota and sediment through the lake. Here we present a reconstruction of the ice flow trajectories for the Vostok core site, using ice-penetrating radar data and Global Positioning System (GPS) measurements of surface ice velocity. We find that the ice sheet has a significant along-lake flow component, persistent since the Last Glacial Maximum. The rates at which ice is frozen (accreted) to the base of the ice sheet are greatest at the shorelines, and the accreted ice layer is subsequently transported out of the lake. Using these new flow field and velocity measurements, we estimate the time for ice to traverse Lake Vostok to be 16,000-20,000 years. We infer that most Vostok ice analysed to date was accreted to the ice sheet close to the western shoreline, and is therefore not representative of open lake conditions. From the amount of accreted lake water we estimate to be exported along the southern shoreline, the lake water residence time is about 13,300 years. PMID:11907573

  7. CALPUFF modelling for the Williams Lake airshed

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schutte, A.; Jain, R.; Walsh, C. [Levelton Consultants Ltd., Richmond, BC (Canada)

    2005-06-21

    Th air quality dispersion model CALPUFF was described and evaluated. CALPUFF is a suite of 3 numerical models used in series to determine predicted pollution concentrations. Details of the simulation program were presented, and its performance was evaluated through an analysis of the Williams Lake airshed in British Columbia. CALMET is a diagnostic computer model that produces a detailed 3-D field of meteorological parameters based on surface and upper air measurements, digital land use data, and terrain data. The 3-D fields produced by CALMET are then used by CALPUFF to calculate the dispersion of emissions over distances of a few metres to hundreds of kilometres. CALPOST is a statistical processing program used to summarize and tabulate the concentrations calculated by CALPUFF. The dispersion of emissions from point, area, and mobile sources in the Williams Lake airshed was simulated using data collected between June 2003 to June 2004 to establish a baseline. Baseline modelling was then compared with ambient monitoring data in the airshed to determine sources of error and model accuracy. Airshed boundaries were defined by UTM grid coordinates. Modelling domain boundaries were defined by the map of the Williams Lake region, which also showed the locations of industrial sources and air quality monitors used in the comparison with the model. The ambient concentrations that were predicted by the dispersion model were compared with the ambient air quality objectives and guidelines applicable to the Williams Lake Airshed and regulated by both provincial and federal governments. Modelling results showed that CALPUFF results were within a reasonable amount of error and could be considered conservative. It was concluded that steps should be taken to reduce levels of sulfur dioxide (SO{sub 2}); carbon monoxide (CO); nitrogen oxide (NO{sub x}); nitric oxide (NO{sub 2}); volatile organic compounds (VOC); and particulate matter (PM). 23 refs., 6 tabs., 6 figs.

  8. History, development and characteristics of lake ecological models

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2002-01-01

    This paper provides some introductory information on the history, development, and characteristics of various lake ecosystem models.The modeling of lake ecological processes began to gain importance in the early 1960s. There are a number of models available today, with varying levels of complexity to cope with the variety of environmental problems found in lake environments, e.g. eutrophication, acidification,oxygen depletion, wetland management, heavy metal and pesticide pollution, as well as hydrodynamic problems. In particular, this paper focuses on lake eutrophication and wetland models, as well as addressing strategies appropriate for the design and development of reliable lake ecological models.

  9. Ecosystem element transport model for Lake Eckarfjaerden

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Konovalenko, L.; Bradshaw, C. [The Department of Ecology, Environment and Plant Sciences, Stockholm University (Sweden); Andersson, E.; Kautsky, U. [Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co. - SKB (Sweden)

    2014-07-01

    The ecosystem transport model of elements was developed for Lake Eckarfjaerden located in the Forsmark area in Sweden. Forsmark has currently a low level repository (SFR) and a repository for spent fuel is planned. A large number of data collected during site-investigation program 2002-2009 for planning the repository were available for the creation of the compartment model based on carbon circulation, physical and biological processes (e.g. primary production, consumption, respiration). The model is site-specific in the sense that the food web model is adapted to the actual food web at the site, and most estimates of biomass and metabolic rates for the organisms and meteorological data originate from site data. The functional organism groups of Lake Eckarfjaerden were considered as separate compartments: bacterio-plankton, benthic bacteria, macro-algae, phytoplankton, zooplankton, fish, benthic fauna. Two functional groups of bacteria were taken into account for the reason that they have the highest biomass of all functional groups during the winter, comprising 36% of the total biomass. Effects of ecological parameters, such as bacteria and algae biomass, on redistribution of a hypothetical radionuclide release in the lake were examined. The ecosystem model was used to estimate the environmental transfer of several elements (U, Th, Ra) and their isotopes (U-238, U-234,Th-232, Ra-226) to various aquatic organisms in the lake, using element-specific distribution coefficients for suspended particle and sediment. Results of chemical analyses of the water, sediment and biota were used for model validation. The model gives estimates of concentration factors for fish based on modelling rather on in situ measurement, which reduces the uncertainties for many radionuclides with scarce of data. Document available in abstract form only. (authors)

  10. Ecosystem element transport model for Lake Eckarfjaerden

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The ecosystem transport model of elements was developed for Lake Eckarfjaerden located in the Forsmark area in Sweden. Forsmark has currently a low level repository (SFR) and a repository for spent fuel is planned. A large number of data collected during site-investigation program 2002-2009 for planning the repository were available for the creation of the compartment model based on carbon circulation, physical and biological processes (e.g. primary production, consumption, respiration). The model is site-specific in the sense that the food web model is adapted to the actual food web at the site, and most estimates of biomass and metabolic rates for the organisms and meteorological data originate from site data. The functional organism groups of Lake Eckarfjaerden were considered as separate compartments: bacterio-plankton, benthic bacteria, macro-algae, phytoplankton, zooplankton, fish, benthic fauna. Two functional groups of bacteria were taken into account for the reason that they have the highest biomass of all functional groups during the winter, comprising 36% of the total biomass. Effects of ecological parameters, such as bacteria and algae biomass, on redistribution of a hypothetical radionuclide release in the lake were examined. The ecosystem model was used to estimate the environmental transfer of several elements (U, Th, Ra) and their isotopes (U-238, U-234,Th-232, Ra-226) to various aquatic organisms in the lake, using element-specific distribution coefficients for suspended particle and sediment. Results of chemical analyses of the water, sediment and biota were used for model validation. The model gives estimates of concentration factors for fish based on modelling rather on in situ measurement, which reduces the uncertainties for many radionuclides with scarce of data. Document available in abstract form only. (authors)

  11. Microbially mediated redox transformations of manganese (II) along with some other trace elements: a study from Antarctic lakes

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Krishnan, K.P.; Sinha, R.K.; Krishna, K.; Nair, S.; Singh, S.M.

    a study that was conducted in the brackish water lakes in the Larsemann Hills region (east Antarctica) is presented. The rate of in situ manganese oxidation ranged from 0.04 to 3.96 ppb day sup(-1). These lakes harbor numerous manganese...

  12. Determining lake surface water temperatures (LSWTs) worldwide using a tuned 1-dimensional lake model (FLake, v1)

    OpenAIRE

    Layden, A.; S. MacCallum; Merchant, C.

    2015-01-01

    FLake, a 1-dimensional freshwater lake model, is tuned for 244 globally distributed large lakes using lake surface water temperatures (LSWTs) derived from Along-Track Scanning Radiometers (ATSRs). The model, tuned using only 3 lake properties; lake depth, albedo (snow and ice) and light extinction co-efficient, substantially improves the measured biases in various features of the LSWT annual cycle, including the LSWTs of saline and high altitude lakes. The daily ...

  13. Laboratory evaluation of a lake trout bioenergetics model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madenjian, Charles P.; O'Connor, Daniel V.

    1999-01-01

    Lake trout Salvelinus namaycush, aged 3 and 6 years and with average weights of 700 and 2,000 g, were grown in laboratory tanks for up to 407 d under a thermal regime similar to that experienced by lake trout in nearshore Lake Michigan. Lake trout were fed alewifeAlosa pseudoharengus and rainbow smelt Osmerus mordax, prey typical of lake trout in Lake Michigan. Of the 120 lake trout used in the experiment, 40 were fed a low ration (0.25% of their body weight per day), 40 were fed a medium ration (0.5% of their body weight per day), and 40 were fed a high ration (ad libitum). We measured consumption and growth, and we compared observed consumption with that predicted by the Wisconsin bioenergetics model. For lake trout fed the medium ration, model predictions for monthly consumption were unbiased. Moreover, predicted cumulative consumption by medium-ration lake trout for the entire experiment (320 d for smaller lake trout and 407 d for larger lake trout) agreed quite well with observed cumulative consumption; predictions were as close as within 0.1 to 5.2% of observed cumulative consumption. Even so, the model consistently overestimated consumption by low-ration fish and underestimated consumption by high-ration fish. The bias was significant in both cases, but was more severe for the low-ration trout. Because the low-ration and high-ration regimes were probably unrealistic for lake trout residing in Lake Michigan and because the model fit our laboratory data rather well for medium-ration trout, we conclude that applying the Wisconsin bioenergetics model to the Lake Michigan lake trout population in order to estimate the amount of prey fish consumed by lake trout each year is appropriate.

  14. Large-Ensemble modeling of last deglacial and future variations of the Antarctic Ice Sheet

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pollard, David; DeConto, Robert; Chang, Won; Applegate, Patrick; Haran, Murali

    2015-04-01

    Recent observations of thinning and retreat of the Pine Island and Thwaites Glaciers identify the Amundsen Sea Embayment (ASE) sector of West Antarctica as particularly vulnerable to future climate change. To date, most future modeling of these glaciers has been calibrated using recent and modern observations. As an alternate approach, we apply a hybrid 3-D ice sheet-shelf model to the last deglacial retreat of Antarctica, making use of geologic data from ~20,000 years BP to present, focusing on the ASE but including other sectors of Antarctica. Following several recent ice-sheet studies, we use Large-Ensemble statistical techniques, performing sets of ~500 to 1000 runs with varying model parameters. The model is run for the last 40 kyrs on 10 to 20-km grids, both on continental domains and also on nested domains over West Antarctica. Various types of objective scores for each run are calculated using reconstructed past grounding lines, relative sea level records, measured uplift rates, and cosmogenic elevation-age data. Runs are extended into the future few millennia using RCP scenarios. The goal is to produce calibrated probabilistic ranges of model parameter values and quantified envelopes of future ice retreat. Preliminary results are presented for Large Ensembles with (i) Latin HyperCube sampling in high-dimensional parameter space, using statistical emulators and Markov Chain Monte Carlo techniques, and (ii) dense "factorial" sampling with a smaller number of parameters. Different ways of combining the types of scores listed above are explored. One robust conclusion is that for the warmer future RCP scenarios, most reasonable parameter combinations produce retreat deep into the West Antarctic interior. Recently proposed mechanisms of hydrofracturing and ice-cliff failure accelerate future West Antarctic retreat, and later produce retreat into East Antarctic basins.

  15. A coupled lake-atmosphere model (CLAM) and its application to Lake Kinneret

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pan, Hai

    1999-08-01

    Kinneret is a 166-km2 lake located in Northern Israel, in the central part of the Jordan Valley, a corridor running from north to south, between the Galilee hills in the west and the Golan Heights in the east. Both the Galilee hills and the Golan Heights reach an elevation of about 400 m above mean sea level (MSL), and the lake is about -210 m (MSL). North of the lake is the mountainous area of the Hermon, culminating at about 2800 m (MSL). About 120 km south of it is the Dead Sea, which is about -410 m (MSL), and about 45 km west of it is the Mediterranean Sea. The complexity of the terrain, combined with relatively arid soil and various ground covers surrounding the lake, results in a very complicated system of atmospheric and lake processes. To understand this system, especially the processes affecting the atmosphere and lake dynamics and thermodynamics, and their effects on Lake Kinneret evaporation, a coupled lake-atmosphere model (CLAM) was developed and applied to the lake region. The CLAM is based on the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) and the oceanic S-coordinate Rutgers University Model (SCRUM). Energy, mass, and momentum are conserved at the interface between the atmosphere and the lake, and appropriate balance equations are applied there. In the atmospheric module, two nested grids are employed to simulate Northern Israel at a resolution of 4 x 4 km2, and the near-lake region at a resolution of 1 x 1 km 2. Synoptic conditions obtained from the National Meteorological Center (NMC) reanalysis are assimilated by the model. Soil moisture, which appears to have a significant impact on atmospheric circulation in this region, was transformed from the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). Observations collected during two summers above and inside the lake emphasize the good capability of CLAM to simulate surface fluxes and other microclimatic conditions, as well as lake temperature and currents. Although the lake is small (about 12-km wide

  16. Integrating three lake models into a Phytoplankton Prediction System for Lake Taihu (Taihu PPS) with Python

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Huang, J.C.; Gao, J.F.; Hormann, G.; Mooij, W.M.

    2012-01-01

    In the past decade, much work has been done on integrating different lake models using general frameworks to overcome model incompatibilities. However, a framework may not be flexible enough to support applications in different fields. To overcome this problem, we used Python to integrate three lake

  17. Subduction of Pacific Antarctic Intermediate Water in an eddy-resolving model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hiraike, Yuri; Tanaka, Yukio; Hasumi, Hiroyasu

    2016-01-01

    The subduction process of Pacific Antarctic Intermediate Water (PAAIW) in the Pacific is investigated using output from an eddy-resolving ocean model. Focus is on contribution of eddies to the subduction process. To separate the subduction rate into contributions by eddies and mean flows, the temporal residual mean (TRM) velocity is used. In the mean subduction rate, lateral induction caused by the strong eastward flow of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) is dominant. The largest rate is located in the Drake Passage. The estimated eddy-induced subduction rate is comparable with the mean subduction rate, and it tends to cancel the vertical mean component in many regions. In the west of the Drake Passage, however, the eddy-induced subduction is larger than the vertical mean component, and this eddy-induced subduction was not detected in previous studies using the thickness diffusion parameterization and an eddy-permitting model. Results of idealized sensitivity studies to model resolution suggest that the subduction rate would be larger using a model with higher vertical resolution. Therefore, the vertical resolution should be paid more attention in model studies investigating eddy-induced subduction, and not just the horizontal resolution.

  18. Polythermal modelling of steady states of the Antarctic ice sheet in comparison with the real world

    OpenAIRE

    Hansen, I.; Greve, Ralf

    1996-01-01

    An approach to simulate the present Antarctic ice sheet with respect to its thermomechanical behaviour and the resulting features is made with the three-dimensional polythermal ice-sheet model designed by Greve and Hutter. It treats zones of cold and temperate ice as different materials with their own properties and dynamics. This is important becausc an underlying layer of temperate ice can influence the ice sheet as a whole, e.g. the cold ice may slide upon the less viscous binary ice-water...

  19. Resolving the Antarctic contribution to sea-level rise: a hierarchical modelling framework†

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zammit-Mangion, Andrew; Rougier, Jonathan; Bamber, Jonathan; Schön, Nana

    2014-01-01

    Determining the Antarctic contribution to sea-level rise from observational data is a complex problem. The number of physical processes involved (such as ice dynamics and surface climate) exceeds the number of observables, some of which have very poor spatial definition. This has led, in general, to solutions that utilise strong prior assumptions or physically based deterministic models to simplify the problem. Here, we present a new approach for estimating the Antarctic contribution, which only incorporates descriptive aspects of the physically based models in the analysis and in a statistical manner. By combining physical insights with modern spatial statistical modelling techniques, we are able to provide probability distributions on all processes deemed to play a role in both the observed data and the contribution to sea-level rise. Specifically, we use stochastic partial differential equations and their relation to geostatistical fields to capture our physical understanding and employ a Gaussian Markov random field approach for efficient computation. The method, an instantiation of Bayesian hierarchical modelling, naturally incorporates uncertainty in order to reveal credible intervals on all estimated quantities. The estimated sea-level rise contribution using this approach corroborates those found using a statistically independent method. © 2013 The Authors. Environmetrics Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. PMID:25505370

  20. Modeling and management of pit lake water chemistry 1: Theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Highlights: • Review of pit lake literature in the context of pit lake predictions. • Review of approaches used to predict pit wall-rock runoff and leachate. • Review of approaches used to generate a pit lake water balance. • Review of approaches used to generate a hydrodynamic prediction. • Review of approaches used to generate a geochemical prediction of a future pit lake. - Abstract: Pit lakes are permanent hydrologic/landscape features that can result from open pit mining for metals, coal, uranium, diamonds, oil sands, and aggregates. Risks associated with pit lakes include local and regional impacts to water quality and related impacts to aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems. Stakeholders rely on predictive models of water chemistry to prepare for and manage these risks. This paper is the first of a two part series on the modeling and management of pit lakes. Herein, we review approaches that have been used to quantify wall-rock runoff geochemistry, wall-rock leachate geochemistry, pit lake water balance, pit lake limnology (i.e. extent of vertical mixing), and pit lake water quality, and conclude with guidance on the application of models within the mine life cycle. The purpose of this paper is to better prepare stakeholders, including future modelers, mine managers, consultants, permitting agencies, land management agencies, regulators, research scientists, academics, and other interested parties, for the challenges of predicting and managing future pit lakes in un-mined areas

  1. An improved Antarctic dataset for high resolution numerical ice sheet models (ALBMAP v1

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. M. Le Brocq

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available The dataset described in this paper (ALBMAP has been created for the purposes of high-resolution numerical ice sheet modelling of the Antarctic Ice Sheet. It brings together data on the ice sheet configuration (e.g. ice surface and ice thickness and boundary conditions, such as the surface air temperature, accumulation and geothermal heat flux. The ice thickness and basal topography is based on the BEDMAP dataset (Lythe et al., 2001, however, there are a number of inconsistencies within BEDMAP and, since its release, more data has become available. The dataset described here addresses these inconsistencies, including some novel interpolation schemes for sub ice-shelf cavities, and incorporates some major new datasets. The inclusion of new datasets is not exhaustive, this considerable task is left for the next release of BEDMAP, however, the data and procedure documented here provides another step forward and demonstrates the issues that need addressing in a continental scale dataset useful for high resolution ice sheet modelling. The dataset provides an initial condition that is as close as possible to present-day ice sheet configuration, aiding modelling of the response of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to various forcings, which are, at present, not fully understood.

  2. Stochastic superparameterization in a quasigeostrophic model of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grooms, Ian; Majda, Andrew J.; Smith, K. Shafer

    2015-01-01

    Stochastic superparameterization, a stochastic parameterization framework based on a multiscale formalism, is developed for mesoscale eddy parameterization in coarse-resolution ocean modeling. The framework of stochastic superparameterization is reviewed and several configurations are implemented and tested in a quasigeostrophic channel model - an idealized representation of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. Five versions of the Gent-McWilliams (GM) parameterization are also implemented and tested for comparison. Skill is measured using the time-mean and temporal variability separately, and in combination using the relative entropy in the single-point statistics. Among all the models, those with the more accurate mean state have the less accurate variability, and vice versa. Stochastic superparameterization results in improved climate fidelity in comparison with GM parameterizations as measured by the relative entropy. In particular, configurations of stochastic superparameterization that include stochastic Reynolds stress terms in the coarse model equations, corresponding to kinetic energy backscatter, perform better than models that only include isopycnal height smoothing.

  3. Geochemical monitoring of volcanic lakes. A generalized box model for active crater lakes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Franco Tassi

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available

    In the past, variations in the chemical contents (SO42−, Cl−, cations of crater lake water have not systematically demonstrated any relationships with eruptive activity. Intensive parameters (i.e., concentrations, temperature, pH, salinity should be converted into extensive parameters (i.e., fluxes, changes with time of mass and solutes, taking into account all the internal and external chemical–physical factors that affect the crater lake system. This study presents a generalized box model approach that can be useful for geochemical monitoring of active crater lakes, as highly dynamic natural systems. The mass budget of a lake is based on observations of physical variations over a certain period of time: lake volume (level, surface area, lake water temperature, meteorological precipitation, air humidity, wind velocity, input of spring water, and overflow of the lake. This first approach leads to quantification of the input and output fluxes that contribute to the actual crater lake volume. Estimating the input flux of the "volcanic" fluid (Qf- kg/s –– an unmeasurable subsurface parameter –– and tracing its variations with time is the major focus during crater lake monitoring. Through expanding the mass budget into an isotope and chemical budget of the lake, the box model helps to qualitatively characterize the fluids involved. The (calculated Cl− content and dD ratio of the rising "volcanic" fluid defines its origin. With reference to continuous monitoring of crater lakes, the present study provides tips that allow better calculation of Qf in the future. At present, this study offers the most comprehensive and up-to-date literature review on active crater lakes.

  4. Determining lake surface water temperatures worldwide using a tuned one-dimensional lake model (FLake, v1)

    OpenAIRE

    Layden, Aisling; MacCallum, Stuart N.; Merchant, Christopher J.

    2016-01-01

    A tuning method for FLake, a one-dimensional (1-D) freshwater lake model, is applied for the individual tuning of 244 globally distributed large lakes using observed lake surface water temperatures (LSWTs) derived from along-track scanning radiometers (ATSRs). The model, which was tuned using only three lake properties (lake depth, snow and ice albedo and light extinction coefficient), substantially improves the measured mean differences in various features of the LSWT annua...

  5. Mesoscale modeling of lake effect snow over Lake Erie - sensitivity to convection, microphysics and the water temperature

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Theeuwes, N.E.; Steeneveld, G.J.; Krikken, F.; Holtslag, A.A.M.

    2010-01-01

    Lake effect snow is a shallow convection phenomenon during cold air advection over a relatively warm lake. A severe case of lake effect snow over Lake Erie on 24 December 2001 was studied with the MM5 and WRF mesoscale models. This particular case provided over 200 cm of snow in Buffalo (NY), caused

  6. 3-D Eutrophication Modeling for Lake Simcoe, Canada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Q.; Duckett, F.; Nairn, R.; Brunton, A.

    2006-12-01

    The Lake Simcoe Region Conservation Authority (LSRCA) and the Province of Ontario are undertaking a series of studies to facilitate management of the pressures of population growth in the Lake Simcoe watershed. With rapid population growth and urban development comes additional land clearing, storm water runoff and the discharge of treated sewage, all of which are sources of increased phosphorus loading to Lake Simcoe. Depressed oxygen levels were linked to phosphorous enrichment of the lake, with the resultant stimulation of algal growth in the sunlit upper waters of the lake, and its subsequent senescence and settling into the hypolimnion where bacterial decomposition consumes oxygen from the stratified waters. This poster describes a 3-D hydrodynamic, thermal and water quality model of Lake Simcoe developed using the Danish Hydraulics Institute (DHI) MIKE3 model. The hydrodynamic module includes wind-driven circulation, temperature variation, development of the thermocline and thermal stratification, and hydraulic forcing from inflowing tributaries. This is linked to the water quality module which simulates the eutrophication processes in the response of the lake to loadings of phosphorus, such as algal growth, the growth of aquatic plants and subsequent oxygen consumption. The model has been calibrated against Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler velocity data, plus measured temperature and water quality data at MOE stations in the lake and water intakes. The model is an important assessment tool for the management of the lake and its watersheds, allowing assessment of the impacts of the urban growth and land use change on the water quality in Lake Simcoe.

  7. Present-day and future Antarctic ice sheet climate and surface mass balance in the Community Earth System Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lenaerts, Jan T. M.; Vizcaino, Miren; Fyke, Jeremy; van Kampenhout, Leo; van den Broeke, Michiel R.

    2016-02-01

    We present climate and surface mass balance (SMB) of the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) as simulated by the global, coupled ocean-atmosphere-land Community Earth System Model (CESM) with a horizontal resolution of ˜1° in the past, present and future (1850-2100). CESM correctly simulates present-day Antarctic sea ice extent, large-scale atmospheric circulation and near-surface climate, but fails to simulate the recent expansion of Antarctic sea ice. The present-day Antarctic ice sheet SMB equals 2280 ± 131 {Gt year^{-1}} , which concurs with existing independent estimates of AIS SMB. When forced by two CMIP5 climate change scenarios (high mitigation scenario RCP2.6 and high-emission scenario RCP8.5), CESM projects an increase of Antarctic ice sheet SMB of about 70 {Gt year^{-1}} per degree warming. This increase is driven by enhanced snowfall, which is partially counteracted by more surface melt and runoff along the ice sheet's edges. This intensifying hydrological cycle is predominantly driven by atmospheric warming, which increases (1) the moisture-carrying capacity of the atmosphere, (2) oceanic source region evaporation, and (3) summer AIS cloud liquid water content.

  8. MAGIC-DML: Mapping/Measuring/Modeling Antarctic Geomorphology & Ice Change in Dronning Maud Land

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogozhina, Irina; Bernales, Jorge; Newall, Jennifer; Stroeven, Arjen; Harbor, Jonathan; Glasser, Neil; Fredin, Ola; Fabel, Derek; Hättestrand, Class; Lifton, Nat

    2016-04-01

    Reconstructing and predicting the response of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to climate change is one of the major challenges facing the Earth Science community. There are critical gaps in our knowledge of past changes in ice elevation and extent in many regions of East Antarctica, including a large area of Dronning Maud Land. An international Swedish-UK-US-Norwegian-German project MAGIC-DML aims to reconstruct the timing and pattern of ice surface elevation (thus ice sheet volume) fluctuations since the mid-Pliocene warm period on the Dronning Maud Land margin of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet. A combination of remotely sensed geomorphological mapping, field investigations, surface exposure dating and numerical modelling are being used in an iterative manner to produce a comprehensive reconstruction of the glacial history of Dronning Maud Land. Here we present the results from the first phase of this project, which involves high-resolution numerical simulations of the past glacial geometries and mapping of the field area using historic and recent aerial imagery together with a range of satellite acquired data.

  9. Antarctic Harsh Environment as Natural Stress Model: Impact on Salivary Immunoglobulins, Transforming Growth Factor-β and Cortisol Level

    OpenAIRE

    Mishra, K. P.; Yadav, A.P.; Ganju, Lilly

    2012-01-01

    The Antarctic continent on the planet Earth is full of environmental extremes. It is considered as natural stress model. Therefore, the present study examined the effect of harsh environment on the certain salivary markers of 28th Indian Antarctic expeditioners. Thirty healthy men and women (median age 36 year; range 22–61 year) participated in this study. Parameters measured were salivary IgA (SIgA), IgM (SIgM), TGF-β and cortisol level at three different time points: (I) before leaving Indi...

  10. Timescales of Growth Response of Microbial Mats to Environmental Change in an Ice-Covered Antarctic Lake

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anne D. Jungblut

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Lake Vanda is a perennially ice-covered, closed-basin lake in the McMurdo Dry Valleys, Antarctica. Laminated photosynthetic microbial mats cover the floor of the lake from below the ice cover to >40 m depth. In recent decades, the water level of Lake Vanda has been rising, creating a “natural experiment” on development of mat communities on newly flooded substrates and the response of deeper mats to declining irradiance. Mats in recently flooded depths accumulate one lamina (~0.3 mm per year and accrue ~0.18 µg chlorophyll-a cm−2 y−1. As they increase in thickness, vertical zonation becomes evident, with the upper 2-4 laminae forming an orange-brown zone, rich in myxoxanthophyll and dominated by intertwined Leptolyngbya trichomes. Below this, up to six phycobilin-rich green/pink-pigmented laminae form a subsurface zone, inhabited by Leptolyngbya, Oscillatoria and Phormidium morphotypes. Laminae continued to increase in thickness for several years after burial, and PAM fluorometry indicated photosynthetic potential in all pigmented laminae. At depths that have been submerged for >40 years, mats showed similar internal zonation and formed complex pinnacle structures that were only beginning to appear in shallower mats. Chlorophyll-a did not change over time and these mats appear to represent resource-limited “climax” communities. Acclimation of microbial mats to changing environmental conditions is a slow process, and our data show how legacy effects of past change persist into the modern community structure.

  11. Determining lake surface water temperatures worldwide using a tuned one-dimensional lake model (FLake, v1)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Layden, Aisling; MacCallum, Stuart N.; Merchant, Christopher J.

    2016-06-01

    A tuning method for FLake, a one-dimensional (1-D) freshwater lake model, is applied for the individual tuning of 244 globally distributed large lakes using observed lake surface water temperatures (LSWTs) derived from along-track scanning radiometers (ATSRs). The model, which was tuned using only three lake properties (lake depth, snow and ice albedo and light extinction coefficient), substantially improves the measured mean differences in various features of the LSWT annual cycle, including the LSWTs of saline and high altitude lakes, when compared to the observed LSWTs. Lakes whose lake-mean LSWT persists below 1 °C for part of the annual cycle are considered to be seasonally ice-covered. For trial seasonally ice-covered lakes (21 lakes), the daily mean and standard deviation (2σ) of absolute differences between the modelled and observed LSWTs are reduced from 3.07 °C ± 2.25 °C to 0.84 °C ± 0.51 °C by tuning the model. For all other trial lakes (14 non-ice-covered lakes), the improvement is from 3.55 °C ± 3.20 °C to 0.96 °C ± 0.63 °C. The post tuning results for the 35 trial lakes (21 seasonally ice-covered lakes and 14 non-ice-covered lakes) are highly representative of the post-tuning results of the 244 lakes. For the 21 seasonally ice-covered lakes, the modelled response of the summer LSWTs to changes in snow and ice albedo is found to be statistically related to lake depth and latitude, which together explain 0.50 (R2adj, p = 0.001) of the inter-lake variance in summer LSWTs. Lake depth alone explains 0.35 (p = 0.003) of the variance. Lake characteristic information (snow and ice albedo and light extinction coefficient) is not available for many lakes. The approach taken to tune the model, bypasses the need to acquire detailed lake characteristic values. Furthermore, the tuned values for lake depth, snow and ice albedo and light extinction coefficient for the 244 lakes provide some guidance on improving FLake LSWT modelling.

  12. A Reacidification Model for Acidified Lakes Neutralized With Calcite

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sverdrup, Harald; Warfvinge, Per

    1985-09-01

    In lake liming operations in Sweden, acidified lakes are reclaimed by neutralization with calcite powder. The amount added is intended to neutralize the water column as well as to delay the reacidification. The reacidification of limed lakes is dependent on the dilution of the dissolved calcium carbonate with time and, for a limited period of time, the dissolution of calcite from the lake sediments. Calcite on the lake bottom will, in addition to being covered by sedimentation, become inactivated by precipitates of humus and clay minerals clogging the calcite surfaces. A model has been developed to calculate the reacidification of a limed lake which includes the following mechanisms: (1) the dissolution of calcite and a subsequent neutralization of acid water, (2) owing to the increase inpH value, occurrence of precipitation of humus and dissolved metals onto the calcite surface and inhibition of the dissolution of calcite (3) reversible sorbtion of calcium from the water column by sediments not covered with calcite, and (4) diffusive transport through a boundary bottom layer to the water column. In a first approach the lake was modeled as a continuously stirred tank. The equations were derived from a mass balance and the dissolution kinetics for calcite to describe the long-term development ofpH, alkalinity, and calcium concentration in the lake. The differential equations describing the mechanisms were solved with the help of a computer code. The model accurately describes the reacidification and the mass balances observed in several limed lakes.

  13. Biogeochemical modelling of anaerobic vs. aerobic methane oxidation in a meromictic crater lake (Lake Pavin, France)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Methane is a powerful greenhouse gas and its concentration in the atmosphere has increased over the past decades. Methane produced by methanogenic Archae can be consumed through aerobic and anaerobic oxidation pathways. In anoxic conditions found in freshwater environments such as meromictic lakes, CH4 oxidation pathways involving different terminal electron acceptors such as NO3-, SO42-, and oxides of Fe and Mn are thermodynamically possible. In this study, a reactive transport model was developed to assess the relative significance of the different pathways of CH4 consumption in the water column of Lake Pavin. In most cases, the model reproduced experimental data collected from the field from June 2006 to June 2007. Although the model and the field measurements suggest that anaerobic CH4 oxidation may contribute to CH4 consumption in the water column of Lake Pavin, aerobic oxidation remains the major sink of CH4 in this lake.

  14. GREAT LAKES ENVIRONMENTAL PLANNING USING LIMNOLOGICAL SYSTEMS ANALYSIS: MODEL SPECIFICATIONS

    Science.gov (United States)

    The report documents the deliberate decision making process used by the Great Lakes Basin Commission in concluding that rational modeling methodologies could be used to evaluate the effect of different planning alternatives on the Great Lakes and that planning for specific proble...

  15. Projecting Antarctic ice discharge using response functions from SeaRISE ice-sheet models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Levermann

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available The largest uncertainty in projections of future sea-level change still results from the potentially changing dynamical ice discharge from Antarctica. While ice discharge can alter through a number of processes, basal ice-shelf melting induced by a warming ocean has been identified as a major if not the major cause for possible additional ice flow across the grounding line. Here we derive dynamic ice-sheet response functions for basal ice-shelf melting using experiments carried out within the Sea-level Response to Ice Sheet Evolution (SeaRISE intercomparison project with five different Antarctic ice-sheet models. As used here these response functions provide separate contributions for four different Antarctic drainage regions. Under the assumptions of linear-response theory we project future ice-discharge for each model, each region and each of the four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP using oceanic temperatures from 19 comprehensive climate models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, CMIP-5, and two ocean models from the EU-project Ice2Sea. Uncertainty in the climatic forcing, the oceanic response and the ice-model differences is combined into an uncertainty range of future Antarctic ice-discharge induced from basal ice-shelf melt. The additional ice-loss (Table 6 is clearly scenario-dependent and results in a median of 0.07 m (66%-range: 0.04–0.10 m; 90%-range: −0.01–0.26 m of global sea-level equivalent for the low-emission RCP-2.6 scenario and yields 0.1 m (66%-range: 0.06–0.14 m; 90%-range: −0.01–0.45 m for the strongest RCP-8.5. If only models with an explicit representation of ice-shelves are taken into account the scenario dependence remains and the values change to: 0.05 m (66%-range: 0.03–0.08 m for RCP-2.6 and 0.07 m (66%-range: 0.04–0.11 m for RCP-8.5. These results were obtained using a time delay between the surface warming signal and the subsurface oceanic warming as observed in the CMIP-5 models

  16. LAKE-0: a model for the simulation of nuclides transfer in lake scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This report presents documentation and a user's manual for the program LAKE-0, a mathematical model of nuclides transfer in lake scenarios. Mathematical equations and physical principles used to develop the code are presented in section 2. The program use is presented in section 3 including input data sets and output data. Section 4 presents two example problems, and some results. The complete program listing including comments is presented in Appendix A. Nuclides are assumed to center the lake via atmospheric deposition and carried by the water runoff and the dragged sediments from the adjacent catchment. The dynamics of the nuclides inside the lake is based in the model proposed by Codell (11) as modified in (5). The removal of concentration from the lake water is due to out flow from the lake and to the transfer of activity to the button sediments. The model has been applied to the Esthwaite Water (54 degree celsius 2 l'N, 03 degree celsius 00'W at 65 m. asi.) in the frame of the VAMP Aquatic Working Group (8) and to Devoke Water (5 21.5'N, 03H8'W at 230 m. asi.). (Author). 13 refs

  17. Parameter Estimations of Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB Model over the Life History of a Key Antarctic Species: The Antarctic Sea Star Odontaster validus Koehler, 1906.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonio Agüera

    Full Text Available Marine organisms in Antarctica are adapted to an extreme ecosystem including extremely stable temperatures and strong seasonality due to changes in day length. It is now largely accepted that Southern Ocean organisms are particularly vulnerable to global warming with some regions already being challenged by a rapid increase of temperature. Climate change affects both the physical and biotic components of marine ecosystems and will have an impact on the distribution and population dynamics of Antarctic marine organisms. To predict and assess the effect of climate change on marine ecosystems a more comprehensive knowledge of the life history and physiology of key species is urgently needed. In this study we estimate the Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB model parameters for key benthic Antarctic species the sea star Odontaster validus using available information from literature and experiments. The DEB theory is unique in capturing the metabolic processes of an organism through its entire life cycle as a function of temperature and food availability. The DEB model allows for the inclusion of the different life history stages, and thus, becomes a tool that can be used to model lifetime feeding, growth, reproduction, and their responses to changes in biotic and abiotic conditions. The DEB model presented here includes the estimation of reproduction handling rules for the development of simultaneous oocyte cohorts within the gonad. Additionally it links the DEB model reserves to the pyloric caeca an organ whose function has long been ascribed to energy storage. Model parameters described a slowed down metabolism of long living animals that mature slowly. O. validus has a large reserve that-matching low maintenance costs- allow withstanding long periods of starvation. Gonad development is continuous and individual cohorts developed within the gonads grow in biomass following a power function of the age of the cohort. The DEB model developed here for O

  18. Parameter Estimations of Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) Model over the Life History of a Key Antarctic Species: The Antarctic Sea Star Odontaster validus Koehler, 1906.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agüera, Antonio; Collard, Marie; Jossart, Quentin; Moreau, Camille; Danis, Bruno

    2015-01-01

    Marine organisms in Antarctica are adapted to an extreme ecosystem including extremely stable temperatures and strong seasonality due to changes in day length. It is now largely accepted that Southern Ocean organisms are particularly vulnerable to global warming with some regions already being challenged by a rapid increase of temperature. Climate change affects both the physical and biotic components of marine ecosystems and will have an impact on the distribution and population dynamics of Antarctic marine organisms. To predict and assess the effect of climate change on marine ecosystems a more comprehensive knowledge of the life history and physiology of key species is urgently needed. In this study we estimate the Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) model parameters for key benthic Antarctic species the sea star Odontaster validus using available information from literature and experiments. The DEB theory is unique in capturing the metabolic processes of an organism through its entire life cycle as a function of temperature and food availability. The DEB model allows for the inclusion of the different life history stages, and thus, becomes a tool that can be used to model lifetime feeding, growth, reproduction, and their responses to changes in biotic and abiotic conditions. The DEB model presented here includes the estimation of reproduction handling rules for the development of simultaneous oocyte cohorts within the gonad. Additionally it links the DEB model reserves to the pyloric caeca an organ whose function has long been ascribed to energy storage. Model parameters described a slowed down metabolism of long living animals that mature slowly. O. validus has a large reserve that-matching low maintenance costs- allow withstanding long periods of starvation. Gonad development is continuous and individual cohorts developed within the gonads grow in biomass following a power function of the age of the cohort. The DEB model developed here for O. validus allowed us to

  19. LakeMIP Kivu: evaluating the representation of a large, deep tropical lake by a set of one-dimensional lake models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    WIM Thiery

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available The African great lakes are of utmost importance for the local economy (fishing, as well as being essential to the survival of the local people. During the past decades, these lakes experienced fast changes in ecosystem structure and functioning, and their future evolution is a major concern. In this study, for the first time a set of one-dimensional lake models are evaluated for Lake Kivu (2.28°S; 28.98°E, East Africa. The unique limnology of this meromictic lake, with the importance of salinity and subsurface springs in a tropical high-altitude climate, presents a worthy challenge to the seven models involved in the Lake Model Intercomparison Project (LakeMIP. Meteorological observations from two automatic weather stations are used to drive the models, whereas a unique dataset, containing over 150 temperature profiles recorded since 2002, is used to assess the model's performance. Simulations are performed over the freshwater layer only (60 m and over the average lake depth (240 m, since salinity increases with depth below 60 m in Lake Kivu and some lake models do not account for the influence of salinity upon lake stratification. All models are able to reproduce the mixing seasonality in Lake Kivu, as well as the magnitude and seasonal cycle of the lake enthalpy change. Differences between the models can be ascribed to variations in the treatment of the radiative forcing and the computation of the turbulent heat fluxes. Fluctuations in wind velocity and solar radiation explain inter-annual variability of observed water column temperatures. The good agreement between the deep simulations and the observed meromictic stratification also shows that a subset of models is able to account for the salinity- and geothermal-induced effects upon deep-water stratification. Finally, based on the strengths and weaknesses discerned in this study, an informed choice of a one-dimensional lake model for a given research purpose becomes possible.

  20. Evaluation of the performance of the WRF 1-Dimensional Lake model over the East Africa Great Lakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gudoshava, M.; Semazzi, F. H. M.

    2015-12-01

    This study seeks to investigate the performance of the 1-Dimensional lake model coupled to WRF over East Africa. The Africa Great lakes exert a great influence on the climate of the region and a number of studies have shown how the lake influences the circulation and the total precipitation over the region. The lakes have highly variable depths, with Lake Victoria having an average depth of 40m and Lake Tanganyika a depth of 450m. The Lake model for WRF was tested and calibrated for the Great lakes, however it was not tested for tropical lakes. We hypothesize that the inclusion of a 1-dimensional lake will reduce the precipitation bias as compared to the WRF model without the lake model. In addition initializing the lake temperature using a vertical temperature profile that closes resembles the one over these lakes will greatly reduce the spin up time. The simulations utilized three nested domains at 36, 12 and 4km. The 4km domain is centered over Lake Victoria Basin, while the 12 km domain includes all the lakes in East Africa. The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) datasets are used in evaluating the precipitation, and the following statistics were calculated: root mean square error, standard deviation of the model and observations and mean bias. The results show that the use of the 1-dimensional lake model improves the precipitation over the region considerably compared to an uncoupled model. The asymmetrical rainfall pattern is evident in the simulations. However using the default vertical temperature profile with a three-month spin up is not adequate to transfer heat to the bottom of the lake. Hence the temperatures are still very cold at the bottom. A nine-month spin up improves the lake surface temperatures and lake temperatures at the bottom. A two year spin up greatly improves the lake surface temperatures and hence the total precipitation over the lake. Thus longer spin up time allows for adequate heat transfer in the lake. Initializing the

  1. Determining lake surface water temperatures (LSWTs worldwide using a tuned 1-dimensional lake model (FLake, v1

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Layden

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available FLake, a 1-dimensional freshwater lake model, is tuned for 244 globally distributed large lakes using lake surface water temperatures (LSWTs derived from Along-Track Scanning Radiometers (ATSRs. The model, tuned using only 3 lake properties; lake depth, albedo (snow and ice and light extinction co-efficient, substantially improves the measured biases in various features of the LSWT annual cycle, including the LSWTs of saline and high altitude lakes. The daily mean absolute differences (MAD and the spread of differences (±2 standard deviations across the trial seasonally ice covered lakes (lakes with a lake-mean LSWT remaining below 1 °C for part of the annual cycle is reduced from 3.01± 2.25 °C (pre-tuning to 0.84 ± 0.51 °C (post-tuning. For non-seasonally ice-covered trial lakes (lakes with a lake-mean LSWT remaining above 1 °C throughout its annual cycle, the average daily mean absolute difference (MAD is reduced from 3.55 ± 3.20 °C to 0.96 ± 0.63 °C. The post tuning results for the trial lakes (35 lakes are highly representative of the post tuning results of the 244 lakes. The sensitivity of the summer LSWTs of deeper lakes to changes in the timing of ice-off is demonstrated. The modelled summer LSWT response to changes in ice-off timing is found to be strongly affected by lake depth and latitude, explaining 0.50 (R2adj, p = 0.001 of the inter-lake variance in summer LSWTs. Lake depth alone explains 0.35 (p =0.003 of the variance. The tuning approach undertaken in this study, overcomes the obstacle of the lack of available lake characteristic information (snow and ice albedo and light extinction co-efficient for individual lakes. Furthermore, the tuned values for lake depth, snow and ice albedo and light extinction co-efficient for the 244 lakes provide guidance for improving LSWTs modelling in FLake.

  2. Modeling a glacial lake outburst flood process chain: the case of Lake Palcacocha and Huaraz, Peru

    Science.gov (United States)

    Somos-Valenzuela, Marcelo A.; Chisolm, Rachel E.; Rivas, Denny S.; Portocarrero, Cesar; McKinney, Daene C.

    2016-07-01

    One of the consequences of recent glacier recession in the Cordillera Blanca, Peru, is the risk of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) from lakes that have formed at the base of retreating glaciers. GLOFs are often triggered by avalanches falling into glacial lakes, initiating a chain of processes that may culminate in significant inundation and destruction downstream. This paper presents simulations of all of the processes involved in a potential GLOF originating from Lake Palcacocha, the source of a previously catastrophic GLOF on 13 December 1941, killing about 1800 people in the city of Huaraz, Peru. The chain of processes simulated here includes (1) avalanches above the lake; (2) lake dynamics resulting from the avalanche impact, including wave generation, propagation, and run-up across lakes; (3) terminal moraine overtopping and dynamic moraine erosion simulations to determine the possibility of breaching; (4) flood propagation along downstream valleys; and (5) inundation of populated areas. The results of each process feed into simulations of subsequent processes in the chain, finally resulting in estimates of inundation in the city of Huaraz. The results of the inundation simulations were converted into flood intensity and preliminary hazard maps (based on an intensity-likelihood matrix) that may be useful for city planning and regulation. Three avalanche events with volumes ranging from 0.5 to 3 × 106 m3 were simulated, and two scenarios of 15 and 30 m lake lowering were simulated to assess the potential of mitigating the hazard level in Huaraz. For all three avalanche events, three-dimensional hydrodynamic models show large waves generated in the lake from the impact resulting in overtopping of the damming moraine. Despite very high discharge rates (up to 63.4 × 103 m3 s-1), the erosion from the overtopping wave did not result in failure of the damming moraine when simulated with a hydro-morphodynamic model using excessively conservative soil

  3. Modeling a Glacial Lake Outburst Flood Process Chain: The Case of Lake Palcacocha and Huaraz, Peru

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chisolm, Rachel; Somos-Valenzuela, Marcelo; Rivas Gomez, Denny; McKinney, Daene C.; Portocarrero Rodriguez, Cesar

    2016-04-01

    One of the consequences of recent glacier recession in the Cordillera Blanca, Peru, is the risk of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) from lakes that have formed at the base of retreating glaciers. GLOFs are often triggered by avalanches falling into glacial lakes, initiating a chain of processes that may culminate in significant inundation and destruction downstream. This paper presents simulations of all of the processes involved in a potential GLOF originating from Lake Palcacocha, the source of a previously catastrophic GLOF on December 13, 1941, 1800 people in the city of Huaraz, Peru. The chain of processes simulated here includes: (1) avalanches above the lake; (2) lake dynamics resulting from the avalanche impact, including wave generation, propagation, and run-up across lakes; (3) terminal moraine overtopping and dynamic moraine erosion simulations to determine the possibility of breaching; (4) flood propagation along downstream valleys; and (5) inundation of populated areas. The results of each process feed into simulations of subsequent processes in the chain, finally resulting in estimates of inundation in the city of Huaraz. The results of the inundation simulations were converted into flood intensity and hazard maps (based on an intensity-likelihood matrix) that may be useful for city planning and regulation. Three avalanche events with volumes ranging from 0.5-3 x 106 m3 were simulated, and two scenarios of 15 m and 30 m lake lowering were simulated to assess the potential of mitigating the hazard level in Huaraz. For all three avalanche events, three-dimensional hydrodynamic models show large waves generated in the lake from the impact resulting in overtopping of the damming-moraine. Despite very high discharge rates (up to 63.4 x 103 m3/s), the erosion from the overtopping wave did not result in failure of the damming-moraine when simulated with a hydro-morphodynamic model using excessively conservative soil characteristics that provide very

  4. Box model and 1D longitudinal model of flow and transport in Bosten Lake, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Ning; Kinzelbach, Wolfgang; Li, WenPeng; Dong, XinGuang

    2015-05-01

    Bosten Lake in the southeast of Yanqi Catchment, China, supports the downstream agricultural and natural environments. Over the last few decades the intensive agricultural activities in Yanqi Catchment resulted in decreased lake levels and deteriorated lake water quality. A two-box model is constructed to understand the evolution of lake level and salinity between 1958 and 2008. The two-box model of the lake indicates that the evaporation does have the same trend as the observed lake area and the annual average evaporation agrees with the value obtained from the Penman-Monteith approach. To achieve a correct salt balance, the ratio of outflow concentration and average lake concentration has to be around 0.7. This is due to the incomplete mixing of the lake caused by short-circuiting between tributary inflow and the main outflow via the pump stations abstracting water from the lake. This short-circuiting is investigated in more detail by a 1D numerical flow and transport model of the lake calibrated with observations of lake level and lake concentrations. The distributed model reproduces the correct time-varying outflow concentration. It is used for the assessment of two basic management options: increasing river discharge (by water saving irrigation, reduction of phreatic evaporation or reduction of agricultural area) and diverting saline drainage water to the desert. Increasing river discharge to the lake by 20% reduces the east basin salt concentration by 0.55 kg/m3, while capturing all the drainage water and discharging it to depressions instead of the lake reduces the east basin salt concentration by 0.63 kg/m3. A combination of increasing river inflow and decreasing drainage salt flux is sufficient to bring future lake TDS below the required 1 kg/m3, to keep a lake level that sustains the lake ecosystem, and to supply more water for downstream development and ecosystem rehabilitation.

  5. A 3-D model for the Antarctic ice sheet: a sensitivity study on the glacial-interglacial contrast

    OpenAIRE

    Huybrechts, Philippe

    1990-01-01

    On the longer climatic time scales, changes in the elevation and extent of the Antarctic ice sheet have an important role in modulating global atmospheric andoceanographic processes, and contribute significantly to world-wide sea levels. In this paper, a 3-D time-dependent thermomechanical model for the entire icesheet is presented that is subsequently used to examine the effects of glacial-interglacial shifts in environmental boundary conditions on its geometry. Themodel takes into account a...

  6. The bedrock topography of Starbuck Glacier, Antarctic Peninsula, as determined by radio-echo soundings and flow modeling

    OpenAIRE

    Farinotti, Daniel; King, Edward C.; AlbrechtL, Anika; Huss, Matthias; Gudmundsson, G. Hilmar

    2014-01-01

    A glacier-wide ice-thickness distribution and bedrock topography is presented for Starbuck Glacier, Antarctic Peninsula. The results are based on 90 km of ground-based radio-echo sounding lines collected during the 2012/13 field season. Cross-validation with ice-thickness measurements provided by NASA's IceBridge project reveals excellent agreement. Glacier-wide estimates are derived using a model that calculates distributed ice thickness, calibrated with the radio-echo soundings. Additional ...

  7. The origin of platyrrhines: An evaluation of the Antarctic scenario and the floating island model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Houle, A

    1999-08-01

    This paper evaluates whether 1) protoplatyrrhines could have migrated to South America via Antarctica, and 2) the floating island model is a plausible transoceanic mode of dispersal for land vertebrates like protoplatyrrhines. Results show that Eocene Antarctica and Australia supported large and dense forests, and that the Antarctic fauna was comprised of many species of vertebrates, including placental and marsupial land mammals. However, no primate remains have ever been reported from these continents. Antarctica and South America were connected until the Middle Eocene (i.e., after the oldest Asian anthropoids), but two major water barriers existed between Antarctica and Asia since the Early Eocene. The Eocene and Oligocene water gap separating Africa and Antarctica was excessively large. Thus, all scenarios involving an Antarctic route have been rejected. The African scenario is difficult to falsify because only one water barrier existed, both paleowinds and paleocurrents were favorable, and Paleogene African anthropoids show phylogenetic affinities to platyrrhines. I tested whether a journey on a hypothetical floating island over the Paleogene Atlantic Ocean exceeds the survival limit of a genetically viable group of animals such as protoplatyrrhines. Studies of water deprivation suggest that they could have been able, with a body weight averaging 1 kg, to survive without water for at least 13 days. I have used the present Atlantic Ocean as a model for the velocity of Paleogene paleowinds and paleocurrents. Considering winds as the key accelerating force of floating islands, the Paleogene Atlantic water barrier could have been crossed, in the most conservative scenario, in 8 days at 50 Mya, 11 days at 40 Mya, and 15 days at 30 Mya. In order to survive a transoceanic journey, however, protoplatyrrhines had to be preadapted to strong seasonal variations in water availability in their original (African) environment. Once on the sea, their brains would have

  8. Lake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wien, Carol Anne

    2008-01-01

    The lake is blue black and deep. It is a glaciated finger lake, clawed out of rock when ice retracted across Nova Scotia in a northerly direction during the last ice age. The lake is narrow, a little over a mile long, and deep, 90 to 190 feet in places according to local lore, off the charts in others. The author loves to swim there, with a sense…

  9. Comparative bioenergetics modeling of two Lake Trout morphotypes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kepler, Megan V.; Wagner, Tyler; Sweka, John A.

    2014-01-01

    Efforts to restore Lake Trout Salvelinus namaycush in the Laurentian Great Lakes have been hampered for decades by several factors, including overfishing and invasive species (e.g., parasitism by Sea Lampreys Petromyzon marinus and reproductive deficiencies associated with consumption of Alewives Alosa pseudoharengus). Restoration efforts are complicated by the presence of multiple body forms (i.e., morphotypes) of Lake Trout that differ in habitat utilization, prey consumption, lipid storage, and spawning preferences. Bioenergetics models constitute one tool that is used to help inform management and restoration decisions; however, bioenergetic differences among morphotypes have not been evaluated. The goal of this research was to investigate bioenergetic differences between two actively stocked morphotypes: lean and humper Lake Trout. We measured consumption and respiration rates across a wide range of temperatures (4–22°C) and size-classes (5–100 g) to develop bioenergetics models for juvenile Lake Trout. Bayesian estimation was used so that uncertainty could be propagated through final growth predictions. Differences between morphotypes were minimal, but when present, the differences were temperature and weight dependent. Basal respiration did not differ between morphotypes at any temperature or size-class. When growth and consumption differed between morphotypes, the differences were not consistent across the size ranges tested. Management scenarios utilizing the temperatures presently found in the Great Lakes (e.g., predicted growth at an average temperature of 11.7°C and 14.4°C during a 30-d period) demonstrated no difference in growth between the two morphotypes. Due to a lack of consistent differences between lean and humper Lake Trout, we developed a model that combined data from both morphotypes. The combined model yielded results similar to those of the morphotype-specific models, suggesting that accounting for morphotype differences may

  10. Spatial patterns of Antarctic surface temperature trends in the context of natural variability: Lessons from the CMIP5 Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, K. L.; Polvani, L. M.

    2015-12-01

    The recent annually averaged warming of the Antarctic Peninsula, and of West Antarctica, stands in stark contrast to very small and weakly negative trends over East Antarctica. This asymmetry arises primarily from a highly significant warming of West Antarctica in austral spring and a strong cooling of East Antarctic in austral autumn. Here we examine whether this East-West asymmetry is a response to anthropogenic climate forcings or a manifestation of natural climate variability. We compare the observed Antarctic surface air temperature (SAT) trends from five temperature reconstructions over two distinct time periods (1979-2005 and 1960-2005), and with those simulated by 40 coupled models participating in Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. We find that the observed East-West asymmetry differs substantially over the two time periods and, furthermore, is completely absent from the CMIP5 multi-model mean (from which all natural variability is eliminated by the averaging). We compare the CMIP5 SAT trends to those of 29 historical atmosphere-only simulations with prescribed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and sea ice and find that these simulations are in better agreement with the observations. This suggests that natural multi-decadal variability associated with SSTs and sea ice and not external forcings is the primary driver of Antarctic SAT trends. We confirm this by showing that the observed trends lie within the distribution of multi-decadal trends from the CMIP5 pre-industrial integrations. These results, therefore, offer new evidence which points to natural climate variability as the more likely cause of the recent warming of West Antarctica and of the Peninsula.

  11. A glacial systems model configured for large ensemble analysis of Antarctic deglaciation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Briggs

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available This article describes the Memorial University of Newfoundland/Penn State University (MUN/PSU glacial systems model (GSM that has been developed specifically for large-ensemble data-constrained analysis of past Antarctic Ice Sheet evolution. Our approach emphasizes the introduction of a large set of model parameters to explicitly account for the uncertainties inherent in the modelling of such a complex system. At the core of the GSM is a 3-D thermo-mechanically coupled ice sheet model that solves both the shallow ice and shallow shelf approximations. This enables the different stress regimes of ice sheet, ice shelves, and ice streams to be represented. The grounding line is modelled through an analytical sub-grid flux parametrization. To this dynamical core the following have been added: a heavily parametrized basal drag component; a visco-elastic isostatic adjustment solver; a diverse set of climate forcings (to remove any reliance on any single method; tidewater and ice shelf calving functionality; and a new physically-motivated empirically-derived sub-shelf melt (SSM component. To assess the accuracy of the latter, we compare predicted SSM values against a compilation of published observations. Within parametric and observational uncertainties, computed SSM for the present day ice sheet is in accord with observations for all but the Filchner ice shelf. The GSM has 31 ensemble parameters that are varied to account (in part for the uncertainty in the ice-physics, the climate forcing, and the ice-ocean interaction. We document the parameters and parametric sensitivity of the model to motivate the choice of ensemble parameters in a quest to approximately bound reality (within the limits of 31 parameters.

  12. Modeling of TOA radiance measured by CERES and SCIAMACHY over the East Antarctic Plateau

    Science.gov (United States)

    Radkevich, A.; Kato, S.; Lukashin, C.

    2015-12-01

    CERES and SCIAMACHY are satellite borne remote sensing instruments measuring solar-reflected and Earth-emitted radiation at the top-of-atmosphere (TOA). CERES instruments are designed to monitor the Earth's radiation budget by measuring radiation in 3 broad bands. SCIAMACHY sensor measured earth reflected radiation in the spectral range 0.24 to 2.38 um with fine spectral and coarse spatial resolutions. In this work we evaluate CERES shortwave (SW) TOA radiance over permanent clear sky snow in the East Antarctic Plateau to test consistency between modeled and observed radiances. We use SCIAMACHY observations to validate spectral performance of our radiative transfer (RT) model. We revisiting the issue reported by Hudson et al (2010) with another radiative transfer model and using instantaneous atmospheric profiles. That paper reported some overestimation of TOA albedo by their model in comparison with CERES observed SW radiances. As pointed out by Hudson et al., that comparison involves some uncertainties including errors in the modeled surface albedo and atmospheric properties. We use RT model based on DISORT coupled with a k-distribution approach (Kato et al 1999). We use the same approach for the lower boundary condition as in Hudson et al. (2010) with a modification related to modeling surface albedo. In this work we create atmospheric profiles for the individual CERES and SCIAMACHY observations from GEOS-4 reanalysis. A comparison between modeling and actual observations was performed for data from the CERES sensors onboard EOS Terra and Aqua, and Suomi-NPP. Similar to the study by Hudson et al. (2010), the model overestimates the TOA radiance. Modeled radiances are greater than observed ones from the CERES Single Satellite Footprint data by 4.6% for FM-1, 2, and FM-4, and by 3.6% for FM-5. Modeled and observed radiance correlates well: coefficient of determination R2 > 0.999. We compare modeled radiances SCIAMACHY radiances by spectrally integrating over the

  13. Tephrochronology : Methodology and correlations, Antarctic Peninsula Area

    OpenAIRE

    Molén, Mats

    2012-01-01

    Abstract Methods for tephrochronology are evaluated, in the following way: Lake sediments <500 years old from three small Antarctic lakes were analysed for identification of tephras. Subsamples were analysed for a) grain size, and identification and concentration of volcanogenic grains, b) identification of tephra horizons, c) element abundance by EPMA WDS/EDS and LA-ICP-MS, and d) possible correlations between lakes and volcanoes. Volcanogenic minerals and shards were found all through th...

  14. A Water Balance Model for assessing Hydro Climatic Variability in Tropical Lake Systems: Application to Lake Babati and Lake Emakat, Nothern Tanzania

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pericles Mbanguka, Rene; Girons Lopez, Marc; Jarsjö, Jerker

    2013-04-01

    A comprehensive understanding of lake hydrology is important to enhance the interpretation of information on past climatic variations retained in tropical lakes as well as to investigate the effect of future climate conditions on lake ecosystems. In this study, a lumped water balance model is developed to describe historical lake water levels and to investigate the impacts of hydro-climatological changes on Lake Emakat and Lake Babati, two closed tropical lakes in Northern Tanzania (East Africa). The model concept is based on maintaining the water mass balance of the lake system, which is simplified into three main modules: the lake, its catchment area and the connected groundwater reservoir. Water mass exchanges with the atmosphere occur through precipitation, the main input, and evaporation, calculated from meteorological variables using two different energy balance equations. The model also integrates lake and groundwater interaction, by letting the lake water surface balance with the water table in the surrounding groundwater reservoir after every time step. A FORTRAN code is used to solve the water balance equation on a year time step and give the lake volume change resulting from meteorological inputs. The associated lake surface area and lake level are then determined from a depth-volume-area relationship developed from a high resolution bathymetric and topographical maps of the lake and its catchment. The model parameters were calibrated using available meteorological data and corresponding lake level records. A sensitivity study to assess the relative importance of different hydro-meteorological parameters on the model response indicates that changes in cloud fraction have the largest impact on evaporation, the most important component of the water mass balance. This parameter, therefore, proved to be one of the ultimate control factors of the lakes water balance. The model application to Lake Emakat suggests that precipitation and cloud fraction changes

  15. Prospects for surviving climate change in Antarctic aquatic species

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peck Lloyd S

    2005-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Maritime Antarctic freshwater habitats are amongst the fastest changing environments on Earth. Temperatures have risen around 1°C and ice cover has dramatically decreased in 15 years. Few animal species inhabit these sites, but the fairy shrimp Branchinecta gaini typifies those that do. This species survives up to 25°C daily temperature fluctuations in summer and passes winter as eggs at temperatures down to -25°C. Its annual temperature envelope is, therefore around 50°C. This is typical of Antarctic terrestrial species, which exhibit great physiological flexibility in coping with temperature fluctuations. The rapidly changing conditions in the Maritime Antarctic are enhancing fitness in these species by increasing the time available for feeding, growth and reproduction, as well as increasing productivity in lakes. The future problem these animals face is via displacement by alien species from lower latitudes. Such invasions are now well documented from sub-Antarctic sites. In contrast the marine Antarctic environment has very stable temperatures. However, seasonality is intense with very short summers and long winter periods of low to no algal productivity. Marine animals grow slowly, have long generation times, low metabolic rates and low levels of activity. They also die at temperatures between +5°C and +10°C. Failure of oxygen supply mechanisms and loss of aerobic scope defines upper temperature limits. As temperature rises, their ability to perform work declines rapidly before lethal limits are reached, such that 50% of populations of clams and limpets cannot perform essential activities at 2–3°C, and all scallops are incapable of swimming at 2°C. Currently there is little evidence of temperature change in Antarctic marine sites. Models predict average global sea temperatures will rise by around 2°C by 2100. Such a rise would take many Antarctic marine animals beyond their survival limits. Animals have 3 mechanisms for

  16. Modeling brine and nutrient dynamics in Antarctic sea ice: The case of dissolved silica

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vancoppenolle, Martin; Goosse, Hugues; de Montety, Anne; Fichefet, Thierry; Tremblay, Bruno; Tison, Jean-Louis

    2010-02-01

    Sea ice ecosystems are characterized by microalgae living in brine inclusions. The growth rate of ice algae depends on light and nutrient supply. Here, the interactions between nutrients and brine dynamics under the influence of algae are investigated using a one-dimensional model. The model includes snow and ice thermodynamics with brine physics and an idealized sea ice biological component, characterized by one nutrient, namely, dissolved silica (DSi). In the model, DSi follows brine motion and is consumed by ice algae. Depending on physical ice characteristics, the brine flow is either advective, diffusive, or turbulent. The vertical profiles of ice salinity and DSi concentration are solutions of advection-diffusion equations. The model is configured to simulate the typical thermodynamic regimes of first-year Antarctic pack ice. The simulated vertical profiles of salinity and DSi qualitatively reproduce observations. Analysis of results highlights the role of convection in the lowermost 5-10 cm of ice. Convection mixes saline, nutrient-poor brine with comparatively fresh, nutrient-rich seawater. This implies a rejection of salt to the ocean and a flux of DSi to the ice. In the presence of growing algae, the simulated ocean-to-ice DSi flux increases by 0-115% compared to an abiotic situation. In turn, primary production and brine convection act in synergy to form a nutrient pump. The other important processes are the flooding of the surface by seawater and the percolation of meltwater. The former refills nutrients near the ice surface in spring. The latter, if present, tends to expell nutrients from the ice in summer.

  17. Empirical models of wind conditions on Upper Klamath Lake, Oregon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buccola, Norman L.; Wood, Tamara M.

    2010-01-01

    Upper Klamath Lake is a large (230 square kilometers), shallow (mean depth 2.8 meters at full pool) lake in southern Oregon. Lake circulation patterns are driven largely by wind, and the resulting currents affect the water quality and ecology of the lake. To support hydrodynamic modeling of the lake and statistical investigations of the relation between wind and lake water-quality measurements, the U.S. Geological Survey has monitored wind conditions along the lakeshore and at floating raft sites in the middle of the lake since 2005. In order to make the existing wind archive more useful, this report summarizes the development of empirical wind models that serve two purposes: (1) to fill short (on the order of hours or days) wind data gaps at raft sites in the middle of the lake, and (2) to reconstruct, on a daily basis, over periods of months to years, historical wind conditions at U.S. Geological Survey sites prior to 2005. Empirical wind models based on Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Multivariate-Adaptive Regressive Splines (MARS) algorithms were compared. ANNs were better suited to simulating the 10-minute wind data that are the dependent variables of the gap-filling models, but the simpler MARS algorithm may be adequate to accurately simulate the daily wind data that are the dependent variables of the historical wind models. To further test the accuracy of the gap-filling models, the resulting simulated winds were used to force the hydrodynamic model of the lake, and the resulting simulated currents were compared to measurements from an acoustic Doppler current profiler. The error statistics indicated that the simulation of currents was degraded as compared to when the model was forced with observed winds, but probably is adequate for short gaps in the data of a few days or less. Transport seems to be less affected by the use of the simulated winds in place of observed winds. The simulated tracer concentration was similar between model results when

  18. POST AUDIT OF A LAKE ERIE EUTROPICATION MODEL

    Science.gov (United States)

    A post audit of a eutrophication-dissolved oxygen model of Lake Erie is presented. The model had been calibrated using data from 1970 and 1975. Projections were then made for use in establishing the model target loadings for phosphorus that would essentially eliminate the anoxia ...

  19. Antarctic Cenozoic climate history from sedimentary records: ANDRILL and beyond.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKay, R M; Barrett, P J; Levy, R S; Naish, T R; Golledge, N R; Pyne, A

    2016-01-28

    Mounting evidence from models and geological data implies that the Antarctic Ice Sheet may behave in an unstable manner and retreat rapidly in response to a warming climate, which is a key factor motivating efforts to improve estimates of Antarctic ice volume contributions to future sea-level rise. Here, we review Antarctic cooling history since peak temperatures of the Middle Eocene Climatic Optimum (approx. 50 Ma) to provide a framework for future initiatives to recover sediment cores from subglacial lakes and sedimentary basins in Antarctica's continental interior. While the existing inventory of cores has yielded important insights into the biotic and climatic evolution of Antarctica, strata have numerous and often lengthy time breaks, providing a framework of 'snapshots' through time. Further cores, and more work on existing cores, are needed to reconcile Antarctic records with the more continuous 'far-field' records documenting the evolution of global ice volume and deep-sea temperature. To achieve this, we argue for an integrated portfolio of drilling and coring missions that encompasses existing methodologies using ship- and sea-ice-/ice-shelf-based drilling platforms as well as recently developed seafloor-based drilling and subglacial access systems. We conclude by reviewing key technological issues that will need to be overcome. PMID:26667911

  20. Tides and lake-level variations in the great Patagonian lakes: Observations, modelling and geophysical implications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marderwald, Eric; Richter, Andreas; Horwath, Martin; Hormaechea, Jose Luis; Groh, Andreas

    2016-04-01

    In Patagonia, the glacial-isostatic adjustment (GIA) to past ice-mass changes (Ivins & James 2004; Klemann et al. 2007) is of particular interest in the context of the determination of the complex regional rheology related to plate subduction in a triple-junction constellation. To further complicate the situation, GIA is overlaid with load deformation not only due to present ice mass changes but also due to water-level changes in the lakes surrounding the icefields and the ocean surrounding Patagonia. These elastic deformations affect the determination of glacial-isostatic uplift rates from GPS observations (Dietrich et al. 2010; Lange et al. 2014). Observations of lake tides and their comparison with the theoretical tidal signal have been used previously to validate predictions of ocean tidal loading and have revealed regional deviations from conventional global elastic earth models (Richter et al. 2009). In this work we investigate the tides and lake-level variations in Lago Argentino, Lago Viedma, Lago San Martín/O'Higgins and Lago Buenos Aires/General Carrera. This allows us to test, among other things, the validity of tidal loading models. We present pressure tide-gauge records from two sites in Lago Argentino extending over 2.5 years (Richter et al. 2015). These observations are complemented by lake-level records provided by the Argentine National Hydrometeorological Network. Based on these lake-level time series the principal processes affecting the lake level are identified and quantified. Lake-level changes reflecting variations in lake volume are dominated by a seasonal cycle exceeding 1 m in amplitude. Lake-volume changes occur in addition with a daily period in response to melt water influx from surrounding glaciers. In Lago Argentino sporadic lake-volume jumps are caused by bursting of the ice dam of Perito Moreno glacier. Water movements in these lakes are dominated by surface seiches reaching 20 cm in amplitude. A harmonic tidal analysis of the lake

  1. LAKE 2.0: a model for temperature, methane, carbon dioxide and oxygen dynamics in lakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stepanenko, Victor; Mammarella, Ivan; Ojala, Anne; Miettinen, Heli; Lykosov, Vasily; Vesala, Timo

    2016-05-01

    A one-dimensional (1-D) model for an enclosed basin (lake) is presented, which reproduces temperature, horizontal velocities, oxygen, carbon dioxide and methane in the basin. All prognostic variables are treated in a unified manner via a generic 1-D transport equation for horizontally averaged property. A water body interacts with underlying sediments. These sediments are represented by a set of vertical columns with heat, moisture and CH4 transport inside. The model is validated vs. a comprehensive observational data set gathered at Kuivajärvi Lake (southern Finland), demonstrating a fair agreement. The value of a key calibration constant, regulating the magnitude of methane production in sediments, corresponded well to that obtained from another two lakes. We demonstrated via surface seiche parameterization that the near-bottom turbulence induced by surface seiches is likely to significantly affect CH4 accumulation there. Furthermore, our results suggest that a gas transfer through thermocline under intense internal seiche motions is a bottleneck in quantifying greenhouse gas dynamics in dimictic lakes, which calls for further research.

  2. Antarctic Mass Loss from GRACE from Space- and Time-Resolved Modeling with Slepian Functions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simons, F. J.; Harig, C.

    2013-12-01

    The melting of polar ice sheets is a major contributor to global sea-level rise. Antarctica is of particular interest since most of the mass loss has occurred in West Antarctica, however updated glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) models and recent mass gains in East Antarctica have reduced the continent-wide integrated decadal trend of mass loss. Here we present a spatially and temporally resolved estimation of the Antarctic ice mass change using Slepian localization functions. With a Slepian basis specifically for Antarctica, the basis functions maximize their energy on the continent and we can project the geopotential fields into a sparse set of orthogonal coefficients. By fitting polynomial functions to the limited basis coefficients we maximize signal-to-noise levels and need not perform smoothing or destriping filters common to other approaches. In addition we determine an empirical noise covariance matrix from the GRACE data to estimate the uncertainty of mass estimation. When applied to large ice sheets, as in our own recent Greenland work, this technique is able to resolve both the overall continental integrated mass trend, as well as the spatial distribution of the mass changes over time. Using CSR-RL05 GRACE data between Jan. 2003 and Jan 2013, we estimate the regional accelerations in mass change for several sub-regions and examine how the spatial pattern of mass has changed. The Amundsen Sea coast of West Antarctica has experienced a large acceleration in mass loss (-26 Gt/yr^2). While mass loss is concentrated near Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers, it has also increased along the coast further towards the Ross ice shelf.

  3. An evaluation of the simulation of the edge of the Antarctic vortex by chemistry-climate models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Struthers

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available The dynamical barrier to meridional mixing at the edge of the Antarctic spring stratospheric vortex is examined. Diagnostics are presented which demonstrate the link between the shape of the meridional mixing barrier at the edge of the vortex and the meridional gradients in total column ozone across the vortex edge. Results derived from reanalysis and measurement data sets are compared with equivalent diagnostics from five coupled chemistry-climate models to test how well the models capture the interaction between the dynamical structure of the stratospheric vortex and the chemical processes occurring within the vortex. Results show that the accuracy of the simulation of the dynamical vortex edge varies widely amongst the models studied here. This affects the ability of the models to simulate the large observed meridional gradients in total column ozone. Three of the models in this study simulated the inner edge of the vortex to be more than 7° closer to the pole than observed. This is expected to have important implications for how well these models simulate the extent of severe springtime ozone loss that occurs within the Antarctic vortex.

  4. The Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research (SCAR) in the IPY 2007-2009

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kennicutt, M. C.; Wilson, T. J.; Summerhayes, C.

    2005-05-01

    The Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research (SCAR) initiates, develops, and coordinates international scientific research in the Antarctic region. SCAR is assuming a leadership position in the IPY primarily through its five major Scientific Research Programs; ACE, SALE, EBA, AGCS, and ICESTAR; which will be briefly described.Antarctic Climate Evolution (ACE) promotes the exchange of data and ideas between research groups focusing on the evolution of Antarctica's climate system and ice sheet. The program will: (1) quantitatively assess the climate and glacial history of Antarctica; (2) identify the processes which govern Antarctic change and feed back around the globe; (3) improve our ability to model past changes in Antarctica; and (4)document past change to predict future change in Antarctica. Subglacial Antarctic Lake Environments (SALE) promotes, facilitates, and champions cooperation and collaboration in the exploration and study of subglacial environments in Antarctica. SALE intends to understand the complex interplay of biological, geological, chemical, glaciological, and physical processes within subglacial lake environments through coordinated international research teams. Evolution and Biodiversity in the Antarctic (EBA) will use a suite of modern techniques and interdisciplinary approaches, to explore the evolutionary history of selected modern Antarctic biota, examine how modern biological diversity in the Antarctic influences the way present-day ecosystems function, and thereby predict how the biota may respond to future environmental change. Antarctica and the Global Climate System (AGCS) will investigate the nature of the atmospheric and oceanic linkages between the climate of the Antarctic and the rest of the Earth system, and the mechanisms involved therein. A combination of modern instrumented records of atmospheric and oceanic conditions, and the climate signals held within ice cores will be used to understand past and future climate

  5. Large ensemble modeling of last deglacial retreat of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet: comparison of simple and advanced statistical techniques

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Pollard

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available A 3-D hybrid ice-sheet model is applied to the last deglacial retreat of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet over the last ~ 20 000 years. A large ensemble of 625 model runs is used to calibrate the model to modern and geologic data, including reconstructed grounding lines, relative sea-level records, elevation-age data and uplift rates, with an aggregate score computed for each run that measures overall model-data misfit. Two types of statistical methods are used to analyze the large-ensemble results: simple averaging weighted by the aggregate score, and more advanced Bayesian techniques involving Gaussian process-based emulation and calibration, and Markov chain Monte Carlo. Results for best-fit parameter ranges and envelopes of equivalent sea-level rise with the simple averaging method agree quite well with the more advanced techniques, but only for a large ensemble with full factorial parameter sampling. Best-fit parameter ranges confirm earlier values expected from prior model tuning, including large basal sliding coefficients on modern ocean beds. Each run is extended 5000 years into the "future" with idealized ramped climate warming. In the majority of runs with reasonable scores, this produces grounding-line retreat deep into the West Antarctic interior, and the analysis provides sea-level-rise envelopes with well defined parametric uncertainty bounds.

  6. Large ensemble modeling of last deglacial retreat of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet: comparison of simple and advanced statistical techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pollard, D.; Chang, W.; Haran, M.; Applegate, P.; DeConto, R.

    2015-11-01

    A 3-D hybrid ice-sheet model is applied to the last deglacial retreat of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet over the last ~ 20 000 years. A large ensemble of 625 model runs is used to calibrate the model to modern and geologic data, including reconstructed grounding lines, relative sea-level records, elevation-age data and uplift rates, with an aggregate score computed for each run that measures overall model-data misfit. Two types of statistical methods are used to analyze the large-ensemble results: simple averaging weighted by the aggregate score, and more advanced Bayesian techniques involving Gaussian process-based emulation and calibration, and Markov chain Monte Carlo. Results for best-fit parameter ranges and envelopes of equivalent sea-level rise with the simple averaging method agree quite well with the more advanced techniques, but only for a large ensemble with full factorial parameter sampling. Best-fit parameter ranges confirm earlier values expected from prior model tuning, including large basal sliding coefficients on modern ocean beds. Each run is extended 5000 years into the "future" with idealized ramped climate warming. In the majority of runs with reasonable scores, this produces grounding-line retreat deep into the West Antarctic interior, and the analysis provides sea-level-rise envelopes with well defined parametric uncertainty bounds.

  7. Modelling of radiocaesium in lakes. Results from the VAMP project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The paper provides an overview of the main results from the IAEA VAMP (Validation of Environmental Model Predictions) project, which will be presented in a comprehensive technical report that will be published by the IAEA. Seven models for radiocaesium in lakes have been critically examined. The predictions (137Cs in water, sediments and biota) have been validated with data from seven European lakes covering very wide ranges in most limnological characteristics and Chernobyl fallout. The models differ widely in terms of size (number of variables and processes accounted for) and set-up (definitions of fundamental model variables, such as retention of water and radiocaesium, bio-uptake rates, internal loading, seasonal variability, etc.). Much work has been done on critical evaluations of the models (e.g. sensitivity and uncertainty tests). An important objective has been to identify the most fundamental processes regulating the distribution and bio-uptake of radiocaesium in lakes. A new model for predicting radiocaesium in water and predatory fish has been developed. A definition of the important concept of 'predictive power' is presented. The paper discusses the 'sensitivity' of lakes to radiocaesium as well as various remedial strategies. (author). 2 refs, 6 figs, 2 tabs

  8. PCLoos: a eutrophication model of the Loosdrecht Lakes

    OpenAIRE

    Janse JH; Aldenberg T

    1990-01-01

    A dynamic, deterministic model is presented to simulate the phosphorus cycle and plankton growth in the shallow, hypertrophic Loosdrecht Lakes (The Netherlands) before and after restoration measures. Both the water and the upper sediment layer are modelled. The model comprises three algal groups, zooplankton, fish detritus, zoobenthos and upper sediment (all modelled both in carbon and in phosphorus) besides inorganic phosphorus (SRP) in both the surface water and the interstitial water. With...

  9. Key Lake, a model of Canadian development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Canada ranks among the world's top four countries in terms of measured, indicated, and inferred uranium resources. Since 1984, Canada has been the world's largest uranium producer providing some 30% of the world's total. An important reason for this strong position is related to the discovery of high-grade near-surface uranium deposits in northern Saskatchewan in 1968 and subsequently. The history of the discovery of one such deposit near Key Lake made by the German-controlled Uranerz Exploration and Mining Limited is recounted briefly. The Key Lake mine became operational in 1983 and currently is the largest uranium-producing facility in the world. At present, less than 20% of the country's annual uranium output of approximately 11,000 tonnes U is required to provide fuel for the domestic nuclear power program. The excess, more than 9000 tonnes U annually, is planned to be exported abroad, primarily to customers in Western Europe, Eastern Asia and the United States. Given its strong resource base, large-scale exports from Canada should continue well into the next century. (orig.)

  10. On the contribution of lakes in predicting near-surface temperature in a global weather forecasting model

    OpenAIRE

    Balsamo, G; Salgado, R; Dutra, E.; Boussetta, S.; T. Stockdale; M. Potes

    2012-01-01

    The impact of lakes in numerical weather prediction is investigated in a set of global simulations performed with the ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System (IFS). A Fresh shallow-water Lake model (FLake) is introduced allowing the coupling of both resolved and subgrid lakes (those that occupy less than 50% of a grid-box) to the IFS atmospheric model. Global fields for the lake ancillary conditions (namely lake cover and lake depth), as well as initial conditions for the lake physical state, hav...

  11. Interactive lakes in the Canadian Regional Climate Model, version 5: the role of lakes in the regional climate of North America

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bernard Dugas

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Two one-dimensional (1-D column lake models have been coupled interactively with a developmental version of the Canadian Regional Climate Model. Multidecadal reanalyses-driven simulations with and without lakes revealed the systematic biases of the model and the impact of lakes on the simulated North American climate.The presence of lakes strongly influences the climate of the lake-rich region of the Canadian Shield. Due to their large thermal inertia, lakes act to dampen the diurnal and seasonal cycle of low-level air temperature. In late autumn and winter, ice-free lakes induce large sensible and latent heat fluxes, resulting in a strong enhancement of precipitation downstream of the Laurentian Great Lakes, which is referred to as the snow belt.The FLake (FL and Hostetler (HL lake models perform adequately for small subgrid-scale lakes and for large resolved lakes with shallow depth, located in temperate or warm climatic regions. Both lake models exhibit specific strengths and weaknesses. For example, HL simulates too rapid spring warming and too warm surface temperature, especially in large and deep lakes; FL tends to damp the diurnal cycle of surface temperature. An adaptation of 1-D lake models might be required for an adequate simulation of large and deep lakes.

  12. Conceptual Model for Selenium Cycling in the Great Salt Lake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, W. P.; Conover, M. R.; Wurtsbaugh, W. A.; Adams, J.

    2006-12-01

    The conceptual model for Selenium cycling in the Great Salt Lake was developed to guide investigations in support of determining an open water selenium standard for the Great Salt Lake. The motivation to determine this particular selenium standard derives from public concern for a plan to allow disposal of reverse osmosis (RO) concentrate in the GSL, which would contain elevated concentrations of major and trace elements, including selenium. The development of an open water standard for selenium requires a working knowledge of the biological significance of existing selenium concentrations in the Great Salt Lake, as well as a working understanding of the likely changes of these concentrations over time given existing and proposed loads to the system. This working knowledge" is being represented in a conceptual model that accounts for selenium in various stocks" in the system (e.g. water, sediment, biota) and the flow" of selenium between stocks (e.g., precipitation and settling, volatilization, bioconcentration). It illustrates the critical pathway of selenium in the Great Salt Lake from water, to microorganisms, to brine shrimp and brine flies, to birds, and to their eggs. It also addresses the complexity of the GSL system: a) Spatially diverse, being comprised by four distinct bays and two layers, with major differences in salinity among their waters. b) Temporally dynamic, due to seasonal and inter-annual variations in runoff. The conceptual model is presently descriptive, but will serve as the basis for a semi-quantitative model that will be fed by data accumulated during subsequent investigations.

  13. Snow and ice on Bear Lake (Alaska – sensitivity experiments with two lake ice models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tido Semmler

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Snow and ice thermodynamics of Bear Lake (Alaska are investigated with a simple freshwater lake model (FLake and a more complex snow and ice thermodynamic model (HIGHTSI. A number of sensitivity experiments have been carried out to investigate the influence of snow and ice parameters and of different complexity on the results. Simulation results are compared with observations from the Alaska Lake Ice and Snow Observatory Network. Adaptations of snow thermal and optical properties in FLake can largely improve accuracy of the results. Snow-to-ice transformation is important for HIGHTSI to calculate the total ice mass balance. The seasonal maximum ice depth is simulated in FLake with a bias of −0.04 m and in HIGHTSI with no bias. Correlation coefficients between ice depth measurements and simulations are high (0.74 for FLake and 0.9 for HIGHTSI. The snow depth simulation can be improved by taking into account a variable snow density. Correlation coefficients for surface temperature are 0.72 for FLake and 0.81 for HIGHTSI. Overall, HIGHTSI gives slightly more accurate surface temperature than FLake probably due to the consideration of multiple snow and ice layers and the expensive iteration calculation procedure.

  14. Evaluation of the CMIP5 models in the aim of regional modelling of the Antarctic surface mass balance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agosta, C.; Fettweis, X.; Datta, R.

    2015-12-01

    The surface mass balance (SMB) of the Antarctic Ice Sheet cannot be reliably deduced from global climate models (GCMs), both because their spatial resolution is insufficient and because their physics are not adapted for cold and snow-covered regions. By contrast, regional climate models (RCMs) adapted for polar regions can physically and dynamically downscale SMB components over the ice sheet using large-scale forcing at their boundaries. Polar-oriented RCMs require appropriate GCM fields for forcing because the response of the cryosphere to a warming climate is dependent on its initial state and is not linear with respect to temperature increase. In this context, we evaluate the current climate in 41 climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) data set over Antarctica by focusing on forcing fields which may have the greatest impact on SMB components simulated by RCMs. Our inter-comparison includes six reanalyses, among which ERA-Interim reanalysis is chosen as a reference over 1979-2014. Model efficiency is assessed taking into account the multi-decadal variability of the fields over the 1850-1980 period. We show that fewer than 10 CMIP5 models show reasonable biases compared to ERA-Interim, among which ACCESS1-3 is the most pertinent choice for forcing RCMs over Antarctica, followed by ACCESS1-0, CESM1-BGC, CESM1-CAM5, NorESM1-M, CCSM4 and EC-EARTH. Finally, climate change over the Southern Ocean in CMIP5 is less sensitive to the global warming signal than it is to the present-day simulated sea-ice extent and to the feedback between sea-ice decrease and air temperature increase around Antarctica.

  15. Future surface mass balance of the Antarctic ice sheet and its influence on sea level change, simulated by a regional atmospheric climate model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ligtenberg, S.R.M.; van de Berg, W.J.; van den Broeke, M.R.; Rae, J.G.L.; van Meijgaard, E.

    2013-01-01

    A regional atmospheric climate model with multi-layer snow module (RACMO2) is forced at the lateral boundaries by global climate model (GCM) data to assess the future climate and surface mass balance (SMB) of the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS). Two different GCMs (ECHAM5 until 2100 and HadCM3 until 2200)

  16. Evolution of the Arctic and Antarctic sea ice over the 20th and 21st centuries as simulated by CMIP5 models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Philippon-Berthier, G.; Fichefet, T.; Goosse, H.; Massonnet, F.

    2011-12-01

    Results from simulations conducted with the CMIP5 atmosphere-ocean general circulation models are used to study the evolution of the Arctic and Antarctic sea ice covers over the 20th and 21st centuries. We first assess the ability of the individual models and the multi-model mean to reproduce the average seasonal cycle, the interannual variability and the longer-term changes of the Arctic and Antarctic sea ice extents and volumes over the late 20th century. A performance metric based on observations is proposed and applied to all available models with the aim of selecting those that yield the most realistic behavior of both ice packs. Outputs from the selected models are then thoroughly analyzed to better understand the sharp decline of the Arctic sea ice area coverage observed during the last decades and to determine the causes of the recent increase in Antarctic sea ice extent. Second, we project with each individual model and the multi-model mean the response of the Arctic and Antarctic sea ice extents and volumes over the 21st century to the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6 and RCP8.5 forcing scenarios. Models that meet the performance criteria defined by the metric are finally used to reduce uncertainties regarding the date of disappearance of the summer Arctic sea ice.

  17. 21st Century Trends in Antarctic Temperature and Polar Stratospheric Cloud (PSC) Area in the GEOS Chemistry-Climate Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hurwitz, M. M.; Newman, P. A.

    2010-01-01

    This study examines trends in Antarctic temperature and APSC, a temperature proxy for the area of polar stratospheric clouds, in an ensemble of Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) chemistry-climate model (CCM) simulations of the 21st century. A selection of greenhouse gas, ozone-depleting substance, and sea surface temperature scenarios is used to test the trend sensitivity to these parameters. One scenario is used to compare temperature trends in two versions of the GEOS CCM. An extended austral winter season is examined in detail. In May, June, and July, the expected future increase in CO2-related radiative cooling drives temperature trends in the Antarctic lower stratosphere. At 50 hPa, a 1.3 K cooling is expected between 2000 and 2100. Ozone levels increase, despite this robust cooling signal and the consequent increase in APSC, suggesting the enhancement of stratospheric transport in future. In the lower stratosphere, the choice of climate change scenarios does not affect the magnitude of the early winter cooling. Midwinter temperature trends are generally small. In October, APSC trends have the same sign as the prescribed halogen trends. That is, there are negative APSC trends in "grealistic future" simulations, where halogen loading decreases in accordance with the Montreal Protocol and CO2 continues to increase. In these simulations, the speed of ozone recovery is not influenced by either the choice of sea surface temperature and greenhouse gas scenarios or by the model version.

  18. Active lakes in Antarctica survive on a sedimentary substrate – Part 1: Theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. P. Carter

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Over the past decade satellite observations have revealed that active subglacial lake systems are widespread under the Antarctic ice sheet, including the ice streams, yet we have insufficient understanding of the lake-drainage process to incorporate it into ice sheet models. Process models for drainage of ice-dammed lakes based on conventional "R-channels" incised into the base of the ice through melting are unable to reproduce the timing and magnitude of drainage from Antarctic subglacial lakes estimated from satellite altimetry given the low hydraulic gradients along which such lakes drain. We developed a process model in which channels are mechanically eroded into deformable subglacial sediment (till instead ("T-channel". When applied to the known lakes of the Whillans/Mercer system, the model successfully reproduced the key characteristics of estimated lake volume changes for the period 2003–2009. If our model is realistic, it implies that most active lakes are shallow and only exist in the presence of saturated sediment, explaining why they are difficult to detect with classical radar methods. It also implies that the lake-drainage process is sensitive to the composition and strength of the underlying till, suggesting that models could be improved with a realistic treatment of sediment – interfacial water exchange.

  19. Models for predicting recreational water quality at Lake Erie beaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Francy, Donna S.; Darner, Robert A.; Bertke, Erin E.

    2006-01-01

    Data collected from four Lake Erie beaches during the recreational seasons of 2004-05 and from one Lake Erie beach during 2000-2005 were used to develop predictive models for recreational water quality by means of multiple linear regression. The best model for each beach was based on a unique combination of environmental and water-quality explanatory variables including turbidity, rainfall, wave height, water temperature, day of the year, wind direction, and lake level. Two types of outputs were produced from the models: the predicted Escherichia coli concentration and the probability that the bathing-water standard will be exceeded. The model for one of beaches, Huntington Reservation (Huntington), was validated in 2005. For 2005, the Huntington model yielded more correct responses and better predicted exceedance of the standard than did current methods for assessing recreational water quality, which are based on the previous day's E. coli concentration. Predictions based on the Huntington model have been available to the public through an Internet-based 'nowcasting' system since May 30, 2006. The other beach models are being validated for the first time in 2006. The methods used in this study to develop and test predictive models can be applied at other similar coastal beaches.

  20. A model for landscape development in terms of shoreline displacement, sediment dynamics, lake formation, and lake choke-up processes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brydsten, Lars [Umeaa University, Dept. of Ecology and Environmental Science (Sweden)

    2006-12-15

    This project expands on the study 'A mathematical model for lake ontogeny in terms of filling with sediments and macrophyte vegetation' published in SKB TR-04-09. As the title suggests, this older model focuses on lakes (existing and future lakes). This newer study extends the model to examine progress of terrestrial objects such as mires or arable land. Furthermore, this newer model could simulate progress of the areas close to the objects. These areas are divided according to their watershed boundaries. If two or more objects are situated along the same brook, the lower situated area is defined as its catchments minus the catchments of the closest higher situated object. The model encourages the study of an object situated in the sea from the time of deglaciation (c. 10,000 BP) to the time for the object due to positive shore displacement is situated on land or that a lake object has progressed to a wetland, however not longer than 18,000 AP. The model focuses on the object and its location in 100-year steps. The model is written in VisualBasic and is divided into two modules, a marine module and a lake module. The marine module deals with shoreline displacement, erosion and accumulation of postglacial fine-grained sediments and erosion of glacial clay. Inputs to the marine module are a digital elevation model (DEM), a digital map showing the extension of the objects and a marine quaternary map. The two maps are in raster formats with exactly the same formats (extension and cell sizes) as the DEM. For each time step the water depths at each pixel are calculated using a shore displacement equation. Next, the water depth changes due to sediment dynamics are calculated using the following rules; accumulation of fine-grained sediments are allowed if the pixel is situated within a future lake object; erosion of fine-grained sediment is allowed if the pixel is not within a future lake object and the marine quaternary map shows occurrence of postglacial

  1. A model for landscape development in terms of shoreline displacement, sediment dynamics, lake formation, and lake choke-up processes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This project expands on the study 'A mathematical model for lake ontogeny in terms of filling with sediments and macrophyte vegetation' published in SKB TR-04-09. As the title suggests, this older model focuses on lakes (existing and future lakes). This newer study extends the model to examine progress of terrestrial objects such as mires or arable land. Furthermore, this newer model could simulate progress of the areas close to the objects. These areas are divided according to their watershed boundaries. If two or more objects are situated along the same brook, the lower situated area is defined as its catchments minus the catchments of the closest higher situated object. The model encourages the study of an object situated in the sea from the time of deglaciation (c. 10,000 BP) to the time for the object due to positive shore displacement is situated on land or that a lake object has progressed to a wetland, however not longer than 18,000 AP. The model focuses on the object and its location in 100-year steps. The model is written in VisualBasic and is divided into two modules, a marine module and a lake module. The marine module deals with shoreline displacement, erosion and accumulation of postglacial fine-grained sediments and erosion of glacial clay. Inputs to the marine module are a digital elevation model (DEM), a digital map showing the extension of the objects and a marine quaternary map. The two maps are in raster formats with exactly the same formats (extension and cell sizes) as the DEM. For each time step the water depths at each pixel are calculated using a shore displacement equation. Next, the water depth changes due to sediment dynamics are calculated using the following rules; accumulation of fine-grained sediments are allowed if the pixel is situated within a future lake object; erosion of fine-grained sediment is allowed if the pixel is not within a future lake object and the marine quaternary map shows occurrence of postglacial sediments and

  2. Modeling Distribution and Abundance of Antarctic Baleen Whales Using Ships of Opportunity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Philip S. Hammond

    2006-06-01

    Full Text Available Information on animal abundance and distribution is at the cornerstone of many wildlife and conservation strategies. However, these data can be difficult and costly to obtain for cetacean species. The expense of sufficient ship time to conduct design-unbiased line transect surveys may be simply out of reach for researchers in many countries, which nonetheless grapple with problems of conservation of endangered species, by-catch of small cetaceans in commercial fisheries, and progression toward ecosystem-based fisheries management. Recently developed spatial modeling techniques show promise for estimating wildlife abundance using non-randomized surveys, but have yet to receive much field-testing in areas where designed surveys have also been conducted. Effort and sightings data were collected along 9 650 km of transects aboard ships of opportunity in the Southern Ocean during the austral summers of 2000–2001 and 2001–2002. Generalized additive models with generalized cross-validation were used to express heterogeneity of cetacean sightings as functions of spatial covariates. Models were used to map predicted densities and to estimate abundance of humpback, minke, and fin whales in the Drake Passage and along the Antarctic Peninsula. All species’ distribution maps showed strong density gradients, which were robust to jackknife resampling when each of 14 trips was removed sequentially with replacement. Looped animations of model predictions of whale density illustrate uncertainty in distribution estimates in a way that is informative to non-scientists. The best abundance estimate for humpback whales was 1 829 (95% CI: 978-3 422. Abundance of fin whales was 4 487 (95% CI: 1 326–15 179 and minke whales was 1,544 (95% CI: 1,221–1,953. These estimates agreed roughly with those reported from a designed survey conducted in the region during the previous austral summer. These estimates assumed that all animals on the trackline were

  3. Eutrophication of Shallow Lakes: Modeling and Management. The Lake Balaton Case Study

    OpenAIRE

    Somlyody, L.; Herodek, S.; Fischer, J

    1983-01-01

    The phenomenon of eutrophication is more irregular in character and less satisfactorily understood for shallow water bodies than for deep lakes. Research, initiated by IIASA, focussed of Lake Balaton, Hungary, as the subject of a case study. Three main considerations promoted the selection of Lake Balaton: 1) a large amount of data was available, due to Hungarian research activities; 2) the lake possesses the "typical" properties of shallow lakes; and 3) serious economic interests are associ...

  4. A conduit dilation model of methane venting from lake sediments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scandella, B.P.; Varadharajan, C.; Hemond, Harold F.; Ruppel, C.; Juanes, R.

    2011-01-01

    Methane is a potent greenhouse gas, but its effects on Earth's climate remain poorly constrained, in part due to uncertainties in global methane fluxes to the atmosphere. An important source of atmospheric methane is the methane generated in organic-rich sediments underlying surface water bodies, including lakes, wetlands, and the ocean. The fraction of the methane that reaches the atmosphere depends critically on the mode and spatiotemporal characteristics of free-gas venting from the underlying sediments. Here we propose that methane transport in lake sediments is controlled by dynamic conduits, which dilate and release gas as the falling hydrostatic pressure reduces the effective stress below the tensile strength of the sediments. We test our model against a four-month record of hydrostatic load and methane flux in Upper Mystic Lake, Mass., USA, and show that it captures the complex episodicity of methane ebullition. Our quantitative conceptualization opens the door to integrated modeling of methane transport to constrain global methane release from lakes and other shallow-water, organic-rich sediment systems, and to assess its climate feedbacks.

  5. Modelling the behaviour of 137Cs, 134Cs and 90Sr in lake systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A model concerning the redistribution of radionuclides is stratified lakes is reported. The model was calibrated using the contamination data mesured in samples of water, sediment and fish collected in Bracciano lake. The results of measurements carried out, during the period 1986-1989 to evaluate the levels of contamination of various components of lake systems of Central Italy, are reported

  6. A model study of the effect of climate and sea-level change on the evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet from the Last Glacial Maximum to 2100

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maris, M. N. A.; van Wessem, J. M.; van de Berg, W. J.; de Boer, B.; Oerlemans, J.

    2015-08-01

    Due to a scarcity of observations and its long memory of uncertain past climate, the Antarctic Ice Sheet remains a largely unknown factor in the prediction of global sea level change. As the history of the ice sheet plays a key role in its future evolution, in this study we model the Antarctic Ice Sheet from the Last Glacial Maximum (21 kyr ago) until the year 2100 with the ice-dynamical model ANICE. We force the model with different temperature, surface mass balance and sea-level records to investigate the importance of these different aspects for the evolution of the ice sheet. Additionally, we compare the model output from 21 kyr ago until the present with observations to assess model performance in simulating the total grounded ice volume and the evolution of different regions of the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Although there are some clear limitations of the model, we conclude that sea-level change has driven the deglaciation of the ice sheet, whereas future temperature change and the history of the ice sheet are the primary cause of changes in ice volume in the future. We estimate the change in grounded ice volume between its maximum (around 15 kyr ago) and the present-day to be between 8.4 and 12.5 m sea-level equivalent and the contribution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to the global mean sea level in 2100, with respect to 2000, to be -22 to 63 mm.

  7. Uncertainty in the modelling of 137Cs turnover in lakes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In the context of the IAEA-CEC co-ordinated research programme on Validation of Environmental Model Predictions (VAMP), a generic model for lake ecosystems has been tested under a variety of environmental conditions. The main emphasis has been placed on predicting the levels of 137Cs in water and predatory fish, which are of most concern from a radiological point of view. 2 figs

  8. Modelled present and future thaw lake area expansion/contraction trends throughout the continuous permafrost zone

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Mi

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Thaw lakes and drained lake basins are a dominant feature of Arctic lowlands. Thaw lakes are a source of the greenhouse gas methane (CH4, which is produced under anaerobic conditions, while drained lake basins are carbon sinks due to sedimentation. Besides feedbacks on climate, the development of thaw lakes due to the melt-out of ground ice and subsequent ground subsidence, can have significant impacts on the regional morphology, hydrology, geophysics and biogehemistry. Permafrost degradation as a result of climate warming, which is proceeding considerably faster in high latitude regions than the global average, could lead to either an increases in lake area due to lake expansion, or decrease due to lake drainage. However, which process will dominate is elusive. Therefore understanding thaw lake dynamics and quantifying the feedbacks related to thaw lake expansion and contraction are urgent questions to solve. We apply a stochastic model, THAWLAKE, on four representative Arctic sites, to reproduce recent lake dynamics (1963–2012 and predict for the future changes under various anticipated climate scenarios. The model simulations of current thaw lake cycles and expansion rates are comparable with data. Future lake expansions are limited by lake drainage. We suggest further improvements in the area of enhancing the hydrology component, and operation on larger scales to gauge the impacts on lacustrine morphology and greenhouse gas emissions.

  9. Watershed, river and lake modeling through environmental radioactivity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Progress has been made in the use of natural as well as man made environmental radionuclides, e.g., 210Pb and 137Cs, to quantify lake sediment dating and soil erosion, respectively. However, the modeling of soil erosion and pollutant transport from watershed to fluvial systems is still in its infantry state. The naturally occurring environmental radionuclides like 210Pb and 7Be can be readily used to test the authenticity of a mathematical model as these radionuclides have constant depositional flux and can be quantitatively measured on the watershed surface as well as in the river and lake waters. After testing the capability of a model to simulate the concentration of 210Pb and 7Be in watershed soil and in aquatic systems, the model can be used to predict the removal of man made pollutants, like 90Sr, 137Cs, 239+240Pu, pesticides, fertilizers, herbicides or any other pollutants from watershed area to fluvial system. In this book a 3-Box model is developed and applied to quantify the soil erosion in the light of naturally occurring radionuclides 7Be and 210Pb. The 3-Box model is subsequently applied to determine the transport of 90Sr, 137Cs and 239+240Pu from watersheds to rivers and lakes. The 3-Box model describes the time dependent partitioning of pollutants among three boxes: the watershed, waters and the bottom sediments of the aquatic body. This book is intended for environmental scientists and engineers who are pursuing pathway of the pollutant in aquatic systems. The book will also be useful for the professional engaged in the management of watersheds, rivers and lakes. (author)

  10. Modelling Lake Kivu water level variations over the last seven decades

    OpenAIRE

    Muvundja, Fabrice A.; Wüest, Alfred; Isumbisho, Mwapu; Kaningini, Mwenyemali B.; Pasche, Natacha; Rinta, Päivi Johanna; Schmid, Martin

    2014-01-01

    This study aimed at analysing the hydrological changes in the Lake Kivu Basin over the last seven decades with focus on the response of the lake water level to meteorological factors and hydropower dam construction. Historical precipitation and lake water levels were acquired from literature, local agencies and from global databases in order to compile a coherent dataset. The net lake inflow was modelled using a soil water balance model and the water levels were reconstructed using a parsimon...

  11. Antarctic 20th Century Accumulation Changes Based on Regional Climate Model Simulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Klaus Dethloff

    2010-01-01

    investigated on the basis of ERA-40 data and HIRHAM simulations. It is shown that the regional accumulation changes are largely driven by changes in the transient activity around the Antarctic coasts due to the varying AAO phases. During positive AAO, more transient pressure systems travelling towards the continent, and Western Antarctica and parts of South-Eastern Antarctica gain more precipitation and mass. Over central Antarctica the prevailing anticyclone causes a strengthening of polar desertification connected with a reduced surface mass balance in the northern part of East Antarctica.

  12. Watershed, river and lake modeling through environmental radioactivity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In this book a 3-Box model is developed and applied to quantify the soil erosion in the light of naturally occurring radionuclides 7Be and 210Pb. The 3-Box model is subsequently applied to determine the transport of 90Sr, 137Cs and 239+240Pu from watersheds to rivers and lakes. The 3-Box model describes the time dependent partitioning of pollutants among three boxes: the watershed, waters and the bottom sediments of the aquatic body. This book is intended for environmental scientists and engineers who are pursuing pathway of the pollutant in aquatic systems. The book will also be useful for the professional engaged in the management of watersheds, rivers and lakes. (author). 116 refs., 31 tabs., 159 figs

  13. Hydrodynamics and Water Quality: Modeling Rivers, Lakes, and Estuaries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Opdyke, Daniel

    2008-09-01

    The modeling of lakes, rivers, and estuaries is a fascinating subject that combines interesting facets of mathematics, statistics, physics, chemistry, and biology. Because of the complexity of natural systems, such modeling is always an approximation of the real world-and sometimes not a very good one. It is for this reason that modeling is not just science but also art. It is also for this reason that there are few good texts offering practical advice on modeling. Hydrodynamics and Water Quality makes a valiant attempt but is only partially successful because of the book's narrow focus on one family of models and an inconsistent presentation.

  14. Antarctic Astrobiology

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKay, Christopher P.

    2003-01-01

    Stars may be cold and dry today but there is compelling evidence that earlier in its history Mars did have liquid water. This evidence comes from the images taken from orbital spacecraft. The dry valleys of Antarctica comprise the largest ice-free region on that continent. The valleys are a cold desert environment with mean annual temperatures of -20 C. The lakes in the dry valleys of Antarctica provide an example of the physical processes that can maintain large bodies of liquid water under mean annual temperatures well below freezing. Biologically these lakes are also important analogs because of the plankton and benthic communities of microorganisms that thrive there. Life could have existed in lakes on Mars an ecological similar conditions.

  15. PCB transport into lake sediments. Conceptual model and laboratory simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A laboratory simulation study was performed to observe the transport of a polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) in lake bottom sediment. A conceptual mathematical model, which describes PCB fate due to the combination of molecular diffusion in pore water and partitioning onto sediment solids, was assessed. An experimental apparatus was designed to simulate a lake bottom sediment/water interface condition, in which Aroclor 1242 was introduced. Sampling and analytical methods were devised, so that bed depth-PCB concentration profiles could be determined from the simulation. Very thin slices, 0.02-0.1 cm, allowed the construction of concentration profiles to quantify the time variation of penetration of 14C-labeled components into bottom sediment. The consistent behavior of effective diffusivities extracted from profiles suggests the model may adequately describe chemical transport in sediment

  16. Public lakes, private lakeshore: modeling protection of native aquatic plants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schroeder, Susan A; Fulton, David C

    2013-07-01

    Protection of native aquatic plants is an important proenvironmental behavior, because plant loss coupled with nutrient loading can produce changes in lake ecosystems. Removal of aquatic plants by lakeshore property owners is a diffuse behavior that may lead to cumulative impacts on lake ecosystems. This class of behavior is challenging to manage because collective impacts are not obvious to the actors. This paper distinguishes positive and negative beliefs about aquatic plants, in models derived from norm activation theory (Schwartz, Adv Exp Soc Psychol 10:221-279, 1977) and the theory of reasoned action (Fishbein and Ajzen, Belief, attitude, intention, and behavior: an introduction to theory and research, Addison-Wesley, Boston 1975), to examine protection of native aquatic plants by Minnesota lakeshore property owners. We clarify how positive and negative evaluations of native aquatic plants affect protection or removal of these plants. Results are based on a mail survey (n = 3,115). Results suggest that positive evaluations of aquatic plants (i.e., as valuable to lake ecology) may not connect with the global attitudes and behavioral intentions that direct plant protection or removal. Lakeshore property owners' behavior related to aquatic plants may be driven more by tangible personal benefits derived from accessible, carefully managed lakeshore than intentional action taken to sustain lake ecosystems. The limited connection of positive evaluations of aquatic plants to global attitudes and behavioral intentions may reflect either lack of knowledge of what actions are needed to protect lake health and/or unwillingness to lose perceived benefits derived from lakeshore property. PMID:23609308

  17. Expanding Models of Lake Trophic State to Predict Cyanobacteria in Lakes: A Data Mining Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Background/Question/Methods: Cyanobacteria are a primary taxonomic group associated with harmful algal blooms in lakes. Understanding the drivers of cyanobacteria presence has important implications for lake management and for the protection of human and ecosystem health. Chloro...

  18. Development of a zoning-based environmental-ecological coupled model for lakes: a case study of Baiyangdian Lake in northern China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Y. W.; Xu, M. J.; Xu, F.; Wu, S. R.; Yin, X. A.

    2014-06-01

    Environmental/ecological models are widely used for lake management as they provide a means to understand physical, chemical, and biological processes in highly complex ecosystems. Most research has focused on the development of environmental (water quality) and ecological models, separately. Limited studies were developed to couple the two models, and in these limited coupled models, a lake was regarded as a whole for analysis (i.e. considering the lake to be one well-mixed box), which is appropriate for small-scale lakes but is not sufficient to capture spatial variations within middle-scale or large-scale lakes. In response to this problem, this paper seeks to establish a zoning-based environmental-ecological coupled model for a lake. Hierarchical cluster analysis was adopted to determine the number of zones in a given lake based on hydrological, water quality, and ecological data analysis. The MIKE 21 model was used to construct 2-D hydrodynamics and water quality simulations. STELLA software was used to create a lake ecological model that can simulate the spatial variations of ecological condition based on flow field distribution results generated by MIKE 21. Baiyangdian Lake, the largest freshwater lake in northern China, was adopted as the study case. The results showed that the new model is promising for predicting spatial variations of ecological conditions in response to changes in lake water quantity and quality, and could be useful for lake management.

  19. Stochastic Downscaling for Hydrodynamic and Ecological Modeling of Lakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schlabing, D.; Eder, M.; Frassl, M.; Rinke, K.; Bárdossy, A.

    2012-04-01

    Weather generators are of interest in climate impact studies, because they allow different modi operandi: (1) More realizations of the past, (2) possible futures as defined by the modeler and (3) possible futures according to the combination of greenhouse gas emission scenarios and their Global Circulation Model (GCM) consequences. Climate modeling has huge inherently unquantifiable uncertainties, yet the results present themselves as single point values without any measure of uncertainty. Given this reduction of risk-relevant information, stochastic downscaling offers itself as a tool to recover the variability present in local measurements. One should bear in mind that the lake models that are fed with downscaling results are themselves deterministic and single runs may prove to be misleading. Especially population dynamics simulated by ecological models are sensitive to very particular events in the input data. A way to handle this sensitivity is to perform Monte Carlo studies with varying meteorological driving forces using a weather generator. For these studies, the Vector-Autoregressive Weather generator (VG), which was first presented at the EGU 2011, was developed further. VG generates daily air temperature, humidity, long- and shortwave radiance and wind. Wind and shortwave radiation is subsequently disaggregated to hourly values, because their short term variability has proven important for the application. Changes relative to the long-term values are modeled as disturbances that act during the autoregressive generation of the synthetic time series. The method preserves the dependence structure between the variables, as changes in the disturbed variable, say temperature, are propagated to the other variables. The approach is flexible because the disturbances can be chosen freely. Changes in mean can be represented as constant disturbance, changes in variability as episodes of certain length and amplitude. The disturbances can also be extracted from GCMs

  20. Modeling CO2 air dispersion from gas driven lake eruptions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chiodini, Giovanni; Costa, Antonio; Rouwet, Dmitri; Tassi, Franco

    2016-04-01

    The most tragic event of gas driven lake eruption occurred at Lake Nyos (Cameroon) on 21 August 1986, when a dense cloud of CO2 suffocated more than 1700 people and an uncounted number of animals in just one night. The event stimulated a series of researches aimed to understand gas origins, gas release mechanisms and strategies for gas hazard mitigation. Very few studies have been carried out for describing the transport of dense CO2 clouds in the atmosphere. Although from a theoretical point of view, gas dispersion can be fully studied by solving the complete equations system for mass, momentum and energy transport, in actual practice, different simplified models able to describe only specific phases or aspects have to be used. In order to simulate dispersion of a heavy gas and to assess the consequent hazard we used a model based on a shallow layer approach (TWODEE2). This technique which uses depth-averaged variables to describe the flow behavior of dense gas over complex topography represents a good compromise between the complexity of computational fluid dynamic models and the simpler integral models. Recently the model has been applied for simulating CO2 dispersion from natural gas emissions in Central Italy. The results have shown how the dispersion pattern is strongly affected by the intensity of gas release, the topography and the ambient wind speed. Here for the first time we applied TWODEE2 code to simulate the dispersion of the large CO2 clouds released by limnic eruptions. An application concerns the case of the 1986 event at lake Nyos. Some difficulties for the simulations were related to the lack of quantitative information: gas flux estimations are not well constrained, meteorological conditions are only qualitatively known, the digital model of the terrain is of poor quality. Different scenarios were taken into account in order to reproduce the qualitative observations available for such episode. The observations regard mainly the effects of gas on

  1. WEPP modeling in the Great Lakes Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    The USDA-ARS Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model is a state-of-the-art physical process-based computer simulation model for estimating runoff, soil erosion, and sediment losses from a range of land management systems, including cropland, rangeland, and forests. The National Soil Erosion Re...

  2. Evaporation Estimation of Rift Valley Lakes: Comparison of Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tibebe Dessalegne

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Evapotranspiration (ET accounts for a substantial amount of the water flux in the arid and semi-arid regions of the World. Accurate estimation of ET has been a challenge for hydrologists, mainly because of the spatiotemporal variability of the environmental and physical parameters governing the latent heat flux. In addition, most available ET models depend on intensive meteorological information for ET estimation. Such data are not available at the desired spatial and temporal scales in less developed and remote parts of the world. This limitation has necessitated the development of simple models that are less data intensive and provide ET estimates with acceptable level of accuracy. Remote sensing approach can also be applied to large areas where meteorological data are not available and field scale data collection is costly, time consuming and difficult. In areas like the Rift Valley regions of Ethiopia, the applicability of the Simple Method (Abtew Method of lake evaporation estimation and surface energy balance approach using remote sensing was studied. The Simple Method and a remote sensing-based lake evaporation estimates were compared to the Penman, Energy balance, Pan, Radiation and Complementary Relationship Lake Evaporation (CRLE methods applied in the region. Results indicate a good correspondence of the models outputs to that of the above methods. Comparison of the 1986 and 2000 monthly lake ET from the Landsat images to the Simple and Penman Methods show that the remote sensing and surface energy balance approach is promising for large scale applications to understand the spatial variation of the latent heat flux.

  3. Evaporation estimation of rift valley lakes: comparison of models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melesse, Assefa M; Abtew, Wossenu; Dessalegne, Tibebe

    2009-01-01

    Evapotranspiration (ET) accounts for a substantial amount of the water flux in the arid and semi-arid regions of the World. Accurate estimation of ET has been a challenge for hydrologists, mainly because of the spatiotemporal variability of the environmental and physical parameters governing the latent heat flux. In addition, most available ET models depend on intensive meteorological information for ET estimation. Such data are not available at the desired spatial and temporal scales in less developed and remote parts of the world. This limitation has necessitated the development of simple models that are less data intensive and provide ET estimates with acceptable level of accuracy. Remote sensing approach can also be applied to large areas where meteorological data are not available and field scale data collection is costly, time consuming and difficult. In areas like the Rift Valley regions of Ethiopia, the applicability of the Simple Method (Abtew Method) of lake evaporation estimation and surface energy balance approach using remote sensing was studied. The Simple Method and a remote sensing-based lake evaporation estimates were compared to the Penman, Energy balance, Pan, Radiation and Complementary Relationship Lake Evaporation (CRLE) methods applied in the region. Results indicate a good correspondence of the models outputs to that of the above methods. Comparison of the 1986 and 2000 monthly lake ET from the Landsat images to the Simple and Penman Methods show that the remote sensing and surface energy balance approach is promising for large scale applications to understand the spatial variation of the latent heat flux. PMID:22303142

  4. Implementation and Evaluation of the Impact of a Lake Model in the French CNRM-CM Global Climate Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le Moigne, P.; Colin, J.; Decharme, B.

    2015-12-01

    In numerical weather prediction (NWP) and climate models, substantial efforts have been dedicated to the modeling of natural and ocean surfaces at the expense of lake surfaces. The increase of horizontal resolution of these models allow now to resolve smaller lakes. For that reason, accounting for lakes in modeling systems, has become challenging, especially in regions where lake fraction is high. The lake model FLake (Mironov, 2010) implemented in the surface modeling platform SURFEX (Masson et al., 2014) was first set up off-line at global scale driven by ERA-Interim reanalysis to estimate the best configuration of parameters such as lake depth and extinction coefficient of light, albedo of water, ice and snow. The 30-yr off-line simulations were evaluated for the biggest lakes against satellite surface temperature, freeze-up and break-up periods derived from ARC-Lake products. To assess the impact of lakes in the French CNRM-CM GCM, two global coupled simulations were performed, one with FLake model activated and the second where lakes were replaced by land. Results highlight a regional impact caused by the presence of lakes. Particularly a strong cooling and moistening effect in summertime in the lake vicinity is exhibited, with a direct impact on surface fluxes: stronger latent heat flux due to moister air, lower sensible heat flux due to thermal effects and stronger momentum flux caused by roughness effects.

  5. Generalised additive models to investigate environmental drivers of Antarctic minke whale (Balaenoptera bonaerensis) spatial density in austral summer

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beekmans, Bas W.P.M.; Forcada, Jaume; Murphy, Eugene J.; Baar, Hein J.W. de; Bathmann, Ulrich V.; Fleming, Andrew H.

    2010-01-01

    There is a need to characterise the physical environment associated with Antarctic minke whale density in order to understand long-term changes in minke whale distribution and density in open waters of the Southern Ocean during austral summer months. To investigate environmental drivers of Antarctic

  6. Ventilation and dissolved oxygen cycle in Lake Superior: Insights from a numerical model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matsumoto, Katsumi; Tokos, Kathy S.; Gregory, Chad

    2015-09-01

    Ventilation and dissolved oxygen in Lake Superior are key factors that determine the fate of various natural and anthropogenic inputs to the lake. We employ an idealized age tracer and biogeochemical tracers in a realistically configured numerical model of Lake Superior to characterize its ventilation and dissolved O2 cycle. Our results indicate that Lake Superior is preferentially ventilated over rough bathymetry and that spring overturning following a very cold winter does not completely ventilate the lake interior. While this is unexpected for a dimictic lake, no part of the lake remains isolated from the atmosphere for more than 300 days. Our results also show that Lake Superior's oxygen cycle is dominated by solubility changes; as a result, the expected relationship between biological consumption of dissolved O2 and ventilation age does not manifest.

  7. A fuzzy approach for modelling radionuclide in lake system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Radioactive liquid waste is generated during operation and maintenance of Pressurised Heavy Water Reactors (PHWRs). Generally low level liquid waste is diluted and then discharged into the near by water-body through blowdown water discharge line as per the standard waste management practice. The effluents from nuclear installations are treated adequately and then released in a controlled manner under strict compliance of discharge criteria. An attempt was made to predict the concentration of 3H released from Kakrapar Atomic Power Station at Ratania Regulator, about 2.5 km away from the discharge point, where human exposure is expected. Scarcity of data and complex geometry of the lake prompted the use of Heuristic approach. Under this condition, Fuzzy rule based approach was adopted to develop a model, which could predict 3H concentration at Ratania Regulator. Three hundred data were generated for developing the fuzzy rules, in which input parameters were water flow from lake and 3H concentration at discharge point. The Output was 3H concentration at Ratania Regulator. These data points were generated by multiple regression analysis of the original data. Again by using same methodology hundred data were generated for the validation of the model, which were compared against the predicted output generated by using Fuzzy Rule based approach. Root Mean Square Error of the model came out to be 1.95, which showed good agreement by Fuzzy model of natural ecosystem. -- Highlights: • Uncommon approach (Fuzzy Rule Base) of modelling radionuclide dispersion in Lake. • Predicts 3H released from Kakrapar Atomic Power Station at a point of human exposure. • RMSE of fuzzy model is 1.95, which means, it has well imitated natural ecosystem

  8. Modeling methane emissions from arctic lakes: Model development and site-level study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, Zeli; Zhuang, Qianlai; Walter Anthony, Katey

    2015-06-01

    To date, methane emissions from lakes in the pan-arctic region are poorly quantified. In order to investigate the response of methane emissions from this region to global warming, a process-based climate-sensitive lake biogeochemical model was developed. The processes of methane production, oxidation, and transport were modeled within a one-dimensional sediment and water column. The sizes of 14C-enriched and 14C-depleted carbon pools were explicitly parameterized. The model was validated using observational data from five lakes located in Siberia and Alaska, representing a large variety of environmental conditions in the arctic. The model simulations agreed well with the measured water temperature and dissolved CH4 concentration (mean error less than 1°C and 0.2 μM, respectively). The modeled CH4 fluxes were consistent with observations in these lakes. We found that bubbling-rate-controlling nitrogen (N2) stripping was the most important factor in determining CH4 fraction in bubbles. Lake depth and ice cover thickness in shallow waters were also controlling factors. This study demonstrated that the thawing of Pleistocene-aged organic-rich yedoma can fuel sediment methanogenesis by supplying a large quantity of labile organic carbon. Observations and modeling results both confirmed that methane emission rate at thermokarst margins of yedoma lakes was much larger (up to 538 mg CH4 m-2 d-1) than that at nonthermokarst zones in the same lakes and a nonyedoma, nonthermokarst lake (less than 42 mg CH4 m-2 d-1). The seasonal variability of methane emissions can be explained primarily by energy input and organic carbon availability.

  9. Freshwater lakes of Ulu Peninsula, James Ross Island, north-east Antarctic Peninsula:origin, geomorphology and physical and chemical limnology

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Nedbalová, Linda; Nývlt, D.; Kopáček, Jiří; Šobr, M.; Elster, Josef

    2013-01-01

    Roč. 25, č. 3 (2013), s. 358-372. ISSN 0954-1020 R&D Projects: GA MŠk ME 945 Institutional support: RVO:67985939 ; RVO:60077344 Keywords : Conductivity * deglaciation * lake origin Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 1.417, year: 2013

  10. Three Dimensional Morphodynamic and Vegetation Modeling of Wax Lake Delta

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khadka, A. K.; Meselhe, E. A.; Sadid, K. M.

    2013-12-01

    The Wax Lake Delta (WLD) is located at the downstream end of the Wax Lake outlet, approximately 13 miles upstream from Morgan City, Louisiana. In 1942 the United States Army Corps of Engineer (USACE) dredged Wax Lake Outlet channel from lower Atchafalaya River to reduce flood stages at Morgan City. The channel diverts 50% of Atchafalaya River water and sediment to WLD. Since 1942, the WLD has been building seaward due to the deposition of sediment at the channel mouth. Growth of this delta supports the concept of land building via river diversions. A process based morphodynamic model (Delft3D) with the ability to predict evolution of river-dominated deltas is used in this study to further our understanding of land-building and delta growth processes. Initial model bathymetry is prepared based on USACE hydrographic survey of 1998 along with LIDAR survey data for over bank areas. Two continuous gauges at Wax Lake outlet near Calumet and Atchafalaya Bay near Eugene Island are used to assign upstream inflow and outflow boundary conditions, respectively. The model is calibrated and validated for Hydrodynamics and Sediment transport through two sets of field observations for flooded and average conditions. Vertical velocity and suspended sediment profiles made in the channels of the WLD in 2000 and 2001 are used for the model calibration and validation. More comprehensive field observations are being gathered as part of an ongoing study funded by the National Science Foundation (FESD-Delta Dynamics Collaboratory). Data include mutli-beam bathymetric data, velocities, sediment, and nutrient concentrations in the channels as well as on top of the islands. The Delft3D morphodynamic model for WLD provides quantitative information regarding water and sediment distribution among the inter-connected channel bifurcations, the exchange of sediment and nutrients between the channels and islands. The model is being used to investigate the rate of land building and delta growth from

  11. A generic dynamic model of Cs-137 turnover in Nordic lakes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The purpose of this study was to design a generic model for long-term predictions of the Cs-137 concentration in lakes, emphasizing the secondary load of radiocaesium to the waterbody from lake sediments and drainage area. If the concentration of Cs-137 in lake waters can be accurately predicted, estimates of concentration in fish will be more reliable. The inflow from the drainage area is estimated from the fraction of outflow areas, whereas resuspension from lake sediments is estimated from the maximum depth and surface area. The model is based on compartment theory. Modelling results for six lakes are presented. There was very good agreement between model results and observed values, for both water and lake sediments, although there were minor discrepancies for sediments in the deepest lakes. Analyses of the model results showed that, for deep lakes, the main contribution maintaining the concentration in lake waters is inflows from the drainage area, whereas for shallow lakes, the main factor is resuspension for caesium rich sediments. (Author)

  12. Does lake size matter? Combining morphology and process modeling to examine the contribution of lake classes to population-scale processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winslow, Luke A.; Read, Jordan S.; Hanson, Paul C.; Stanley, Emily H.

    2014-01-01

    With lake abundances in the thousands to millions, creating an intuitive understanding of the distribution of morphology and processes in lakes is challenging. To improve researchers’ understanding of large-scale lake processes, we developed a parsimonious mathematical model based on the Pareto distribution to describe the distribution of lake morphology (area, perimeter and volume). While debate continues over which mathematical representation best fits any one distribution of lake morphometric characteristics, we recognize the need for a simple, flexible model to advance understanding of how the interaction between morphometry and function dictates scaling across large populations of lakes. These models make clear the relative contribution of lakes to the total amount of lake surface area, volume, and perimeter. They also highlight the critical thresholds at which total perimeter, area and volume would be evenly distributed across lake size-classes have Pareto slopes of 0.63, 1 and 1.12, respectively. These models of morphology can be used in combination with models of process to create overarching “lake population” level models of process. To illustrate this potential, we combine the model of surface area distribution with a model of carbon mass accumulation rate. We found that even if smaller lakes contribute relatively less to total surface area than larger lakes, the increasing carbon accumulation rate with decreasing lake size is strong enough to bias the distribution of carbon mass accumulation towards smaller lakes. This analytical framework provides a relatively simple approach to upscaling morphology and process that is easily generalizable to other ecosystem processes.

  13. Precise gravity-field modeling in the area of the Japanese Antarctic station Syowa and evaluation of recent EGMs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fukuda, Yoichi; Nogi, Yoshifumi; Matsuzaki, Kazuya

    2016-03-01

    By combining a Gravity Field and Steady-State Ocean Circulation Explorer (GOCE) Earth Gravity Model (EGM) and in situ gravity data obtained from the Japanese Antarctic Research Expedition (JARE) surveys, we estimated the regional gravity field in the area of Syowa Station, a Japanese research station located in Lützow-Holm Bay, East Antarctica. In situ data sets that were used consisted of land gravity data collected since 1967, shipborne data collected since 1985 and airborne gravity data collected in 2006. The GOCE direct (DIR) solution release 5 (R5) model was used as the long-wavelength reference of the gravity field. Using these data sets, we calculated gravity anomalies and geoid heights at 1-by-1‧ grid by means of least-squares collocation. The resulting geoid height at Syowa Station was compared with a local height based on GPS, spirit leveling and tide gauge data. The result suggests that the sea surface height at Syowa Station is -1.57 m, which is consistent with a dynamic ocean topography model. During this investigation, we also evaluated GOCE EGMs and other recent EGMs by comparing them with the airborne gravity data. The results indicate that the GOCE DIR R5 produced the smallest RMS (Root Mean Square) differences and that the newer models performed nearly as well. These comparisons demonstrate the importance of using reliable in situ data when evaluating satellite-only EGMs.

  14. Mineralogical and Geochemical Analyses of Antarctic Lake Sediments: A Reflectance and Moessbauer Spectroscopy Study with Applications for Remote Sensing on Mars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Froeschl, Heinz; Lougear, Andre; Trautwein, Alfred X.; Newton, Jason; Doran, Peter T.; Koerner, Wilfried; Koeberl, Christian; Bishop, Janice (Technical Monitor); DeVincenzi, Donald L. (Technical Monitor)

    2000-01-01

    Lakebottom sediments from the Dry Valleys region of Antarctica have been analyzed here in order to study the influence of water chemistry on the mineralogy and geochemistry of these sediments, as well as to evaluate techniques for remote spectral identification of potential biomarker minerals on Mars. Lakes from the Dry Valleys region of Antarctica have been investigated as possible analogs for extinct lake environments on early Mars. Sediment cores were collected in the present study from perennially ice-covered Lake Hoare in the Taylor Valley. These sediments were taken from a core in an oxic region of the lake and another core in an anoxic zone. Differences between the two cores were observed in the sediment color, Fe(II)/Fe(III) ratio, the presence of pyrite, the abundance of Fe, S and some trace elements, and the C, N and S isotope fractionation patterns. The results of visible-infrared reflectance spectroscopy (0.3-25 microns) Mossbauer spectroscopy (77 and 4 K) and X-ray diffraction are combined to determine the mineralogy and composition of these samples. The sediments are dominated by plagioclase, K-feldspar, quartz and pyroxene. Algal mats grow on the bottom of the lake and organic material has been found throughout the cores. Calcite is abundant in some layers of the aerobic core (shallow region) and pyrite is abundant in some layers of the anaerobic core (deep region). Analysis of the spectroscopic features due to organics and carbonates with respect to the abundance of organic C and carbonate contents was performed in order to select optimal spectral bands for remote identification of these components in planetary regoliths. Carbonate bands near 4 and 6.8 microns (approx.2500 and 1500/cm) were detected for carbonate abundances as low as 0.1 wt.% CO2. Organic features at 3.38, 3.42 and 3.51 microns (2960, 2925 and 2850/cm) were detected for organic C abundances as low as 0.06 wt.% C. The d13C trends show a more complex organic history for the anaerobic

  15. Stochastic modeling of Lake Van water level time series with jumps and multiple trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aksoy, H.; Unal, N. E.; Eris, E.; Yuce, M. I.

    2013-06-01

    In the 1990s, water level in the closed-basin Lake Van located in the Eastern Anatolia, Turkey, has risen up about 2 m. Analysis of the hydrometeorological data shows that change in the water level is related to the water budget of the lake. In this study, stochastic models are proposed for simulating monthly water level data. Two models considering mono- and multiple-trend time series are developed. The models are derived after removal of trend and periodicity in the dataset. Trend observed in the lake water level time series is fitted by mono- and multiple-trend lines. In the so-called mono-trend model, the time series is treated as a whole under the hypothesis that the lake water level has an increasing trend. In the second model (so-called multiple-trend), the time series is divided into a number of segments to each a linear trend can be fitted separately. Application on the lake water level data shows that four segments, each fitted with a trend line, are meaningful. Both the mono- and multiple-trend models are used for simulation of synthetic lake water level time series under the hypothesis that the observed mono- and multiple-trend structure of the lake water level persist during the simulation period. The multiple-trend model is found better for planning the future infrastructural projects in surrounding areas of the lake as it generates higher maxima for the simulated lake water level.

  16. Mathematical modelling of positive carbon-climate feedback: permafrost lake methane emission case

    OpenAIRE

    Sudakov, I. A.; S. A. Vakulenko

    2012-01-01

    The permafrost methane emission problem is in the focus of attention of different climate models. We present new approach to the permafrost methane emission modeling. The tundra permafrost lakes is potential source of methane emission. Typically, tundra landscape contains a number of small lakes and warming leads to lake extension. We are making use of this process by the nonlinear theory of phase transitions. We find that climate catastrophe possibility depends on a feedback coefficient conn...

  17. Mathematical modelling of positive carbon-climate feedback: permafrost lake methane emission case

    OpenAIRE

    Sudakov, I. A.; S. A. Vakulenko

    2012-01-01

    The permafrost methane emission problem is in the focus of attention of different climate models. We present new approach to the permafrost methane emission modeling. The tundra permafrost lakes is potential source of methane emission. Typically, tundra landscape contains a number of small lakes and warming leads to lake extension. We are making use of this process by the nonlinear theory of phase transitions. We find that climate catastrophe possibility depends on a feedbac...

  18. Modelling Hydrological and Hydrodynamic Processes in Lake Tana Basin, Ethiopia

    OpenAIRE

    Setegn, Shimelis Gebriye

    2010-01-01

    Lake Tana Basin is of significant importance to Ethiopia concerning water resources aspects and the ecological balance of the area. The growing high demands in utilizing the high potentials of water resource of the Lake to its maximal limit, pictures a disturbing future for the Lake. The objective of this study was to assess the influence of topography, soil, land use and climatic varia-bility on the hydrological and hydrodynamic processes of the Lake Tana Basin. The physically based SWAT mod...

  19. Acidification and recovery at mountain lakes in Central Alps assessed by the MAGIC model

    OpenAIRE

    Michela ROGORA

    2004-01-01

    The dynamic model MAGIC was calibrated and applied to 84 lakes in Central Alps to predict the response of water chemistry to different scenarios of atmospheric deposition of S and N compounds. Selected lakes were representative of a wide range of chemical characteristics and of sensitivity to acidification. The most sensitive lakes have already shown in the latest years signs of recovery in terms of pH and ANC. The model well captured the main trends in lake chemical data. According to the mo...

  20. ANALYSIS OF MERCURY IN VERMONT AND NEW HAMPSHIRE LAKES: EVALUATION OF THE REGIONAL MERCURY CYCLING MODEL

    Science.gov (United States)

    An evaluation of the Regional Mercury Cycling Model (R-MCM, a steady-state fate and transport model used to simulate mercury concentrations in lakes) is presented based on its application to a series of 91 lakes in Vermont and New Hampshire. Visual and statistical analyses are pr...

  1. Nonlinear resonances and mixing in a simple shallow lake model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sandor, Balazs

    2013-04-01

    Large-scale transport in environmental flows is often dominantly determined by the velocity field of the flow. Diffusion of certain quantities, like pollutants and temperature, can be neglected with respect to advective transport. Understanding the topological features of the velocity field is thus very important for the qualitative analysis of the large-scale mixing properties of these passive scalars in water bodies. Large horizontal circulating zones (often called gyres) are prevalent structures of wind induced shallow lake flows. In this presentation we analyse the currents generated by wind in a square shaped shallow lake. In case of a steady flow field, induced by a time-independent wind stress field, the typical flow pattern consists of two counter-rotating gyres. When applying periodic disturbances in the wind stress field, mixing regions of different widths develop between the gyres. This region is filled with coherent structures, strongly increasing advective transport in the lake. Meanwhile, the inner regions of the gyres remain stable; their outer periodic orbits serve as transport barriers. Our statement is that the width of the mixing region reaches its maximum at a certain scale of wind disturbation frequencies. This characteristic frequency scale corresponds to the typical circulation frequencies of the gyres. Our flow model consists of a two dimensional, depth-averaged flow field of the volume preserving water body with wind surface stress. The flow has a stream function that satisfies the linearised shallow-water vorticity transport equation. This corresponds to a Hamiltonian system, where the stream function plays the role of the Hamiltonian In the steady state the gyres consist of periodic orbits, so this is an (one degree of freedom) integrable mechanical system, like the undamped pendulum. In the periodically disturbed case the system remains Hamiltonian with a topological similarity to the phase portrait of the forced pendulum. Thus we can

  2. Lake Michigan Mass Balance Study Post Audit: Integrated, Multi-media PCB Modeling and Forecasting for Lake Trout

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Lake Michigan (LM) Mass Balance Study was conducted to measure and model polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and other anthropogenic substances to gain a better understanding of the transport, fate, and effects of these substances within the system and to aid managers in the env...

  3. Predictive habitat modelling of humpback (Megaptera novaeangliae) and Antarctic minke (Balaenoptera bonaerensis) whales in the Southern Ocean as a planning tool for seismic surveys

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bombosch, Annette; Zitterbart, Daniel P.; Van Opzeeland, Ilse; Frickenhaus, Stephan; Burkhardt, Elke; Wisz, Mary S.; Boebel, Olaf

    2014-09-01

    Seismic surveys are frequently a matter of concern regarding their potentially negative impacts on marine mammals. In the Southern Ocean, which provides a critical habitat for several endangered cetacean species, seismic research activities are undertaken at a circumpolar scale. In order to minimize impacts of these surveys, pre-cruise planning requires detailed, spatio-temporally resolved knowledge on the likelihood of encountering these species in the survey area. In this publication we present predictive habitat modelling as a potential tool to support decisions for survey planning. We associated opportunistic sightings (2005-2011) of humpback (Megaptera novaeangliae, N=93) and Antarctic minke whales (Balaenoptera bonaerensis, N=139) with a range of static and dynamic environmental variables. A maximum entropy algorithm (Maxent) was used to develop habitat models and to calculate daily basinwide/circumpolar prediction maps to evaluate how species-specific habitat conditions evolved throughout the spring and summer months. For both species, prediction maps revealed considerable changes in habitat suitability throughout the season. Suitable humpback whale habitat occurred predominantly in ice-free areas, expanding southwards with the retreating sea ice edge, whereas suitable Antarctic minke whale habitat was consistently predicted within sea ice covered areas. Daily, large-scale prediction maps provide a valuable tool to design layout and timing of seismic surveys as they allow the identification and consideration of potential spatio-temporal hotspots to minimize potential impacts of seismic surveys on Antarctic cetacean species.

  4. Geological nature of subglacial Lake Vostok

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leitchenkov, G. L.; Masolov, V. N.; Lukin, V. V.; Bulat, S. A.; Kurinin, R. G.; Lipenkov, V. Ya.

    2003-04-01

    Lake Vostok is located at the edge of vast upland of East Antarctic (Precambrian) Crystalline Shield and represents a typical extensionally-induced intracontinental rift zone. Type indicators of rift nature are: width (60-80 km) and length (about 300 km) of the lake depression; several (3-5) kilometers of sediments (modeled from gravity data) infilling the lake graben, considerable amplitudes of faults bounding the lake (up to 2 km in bedrock relief and in excess of 5 km in basement topography), half-graben-like structures (rotated crustal blocks) at flanks of the lake traceable to crustal extension; along-strike segmentation of the depression (the presence of two isolated basins, recognized from seismic and gravity data); knee-shaped spatial configuration of the lake and existence of diagonal fractures (displayed in bedrock topography) normally nascent in conditions of tensional stress. The rift graben of Lake Vostok is considered to be a part (branch) of more spacious rift system, main arm of which stretched from the Prydz Bay trough the Lambert Glacier and the eastern foot of Gamburtsev Mts. to, at least, 110E. This rift system is a result of large-scale extensional event, which occurred in East Antarctica in Late Jurassic - Early Cretaceous prior to East Gondwana break-up. Sedimentary infill of this age is proposed to dominate in Vostok Lake, although postrift, preglacial (Cretaceous - Paleogene) strata can also forms significant part of depositional section. Helium isotopes data give evidence that the Lake Vostok rift is not active. On the other hand, thermophilic bacteria found in accretion ice suggest the possibility of hydrothermal activity in lake bottom. The conduits for warm underwater can be provided by deep crustal faults bordering rift graben. Microseismicity recorded in the area of Lake Vostok suggests the possibility of crustal deformations (likely during more dramatic earthquakes) providing a necessary fault permeability for water seepage from

  5. Recovery of acidified mountain lakes in Norway as predicted by the MAGIC model

    OpenAIRE

    Cosby, Bernard J.; Wright, Richard F.

    2004-01-01

    As part of the EU project EMERGE the biogeochemical model MAGIC was used to reconstruct acidification history and predict future recovery for mountain lakes in two regions of Norway. Central Norway (19 lakes) receives low levels of acid deposition, most of the lakes have undergone only minor amounts of acidification, and all are predicted to recover in the future. Central Norway thus represents a reference area for more polluted regions in southern Norway and elsewhere in Europe. Southern Nor...

  6. Geochemical monitoring of volcanic lakes. A generalized box model for active crater lakes

    OpenAIRE

    Rouwet, D.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Palermo, Palermo, Italia; Tassi, F.; Università degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra, Firenze, Italy

    2011-01-01

    In the past, variations in the chemical contents (SO4 2−, Cl−, cations) of crater lake water have not systematically demonstrated any relationships with eruptive activity. Intensive parameters (i.e., concentrations, temperature, pH, salinity) should be converted into extensive parameters (i.e., fluxes, changes with time of mass and solutes), taking into account all the internal and external chemical–physical factors that affect the crater lake system. This study presents ...

  7. Geochemical monitoring of volcanic lakes. A generalized box model for active crater lakes

    OpenAIRE

    Franco Tassi; Dmitri Rouwet

    2011-01-01

    In the past, variations in the chemical contents (SO42−, Cl−, cations) of crater lake water have not systematically demonstrated any relationships with eruptive activity. Intensive parameters (i.e., concentrations, temperature, pH, salinity) should be converted into extensive parameters (i.e., fluxes, changes with time of mass and solutes), taking into account all the internal and external chemical–physical factors that affect the crater lake system. Thi...

  8. Collaborative modelling and integrated decision support system analysis of a developed terminal lake basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niswonger, Richard G.; Allander, Kip K.; Jeton, Anne E.

    2014-09-01

    A terminal lake basin in west-central Nevada, Walker Lake, has undergone drastic change over the past 90 yrs due to upstream water use for agriculture. Decreased inflows to the lake have resulted in 100 km2 decrease in lake surface area and a total loss of fisheries due to salinization. The ecologic health of Walker Lake is of great concern as the lake is a stopover point on the Pacific route for migratory birds from within and outside the United States. Stakeholders, water institutions, and scientists have engaged in collaborative modeling and the development of a decision support system that is being used to develop and analyze management change options to restore the lake. Here we use an integrated management and hydrologic model that relies on state-of-the-art simulation capabilities to evaluate the benefits of using integrated hydrologic models as components of a decision support system. Nonlinear feedbacks among climate, surface-water and groundwater exchanges, and water use present challenges for simulating realistic outcomes associated with management change. Integrated management and hydrologic modeling provides a means of simulating benefits associated with management change in the Walker River basin where drastic changes in the hydrologic landscape have taken place over the last century. Through the collaborative modeling process, stakeholder support is increasing and possibly leading to management change options that result in reductions in Walker Lake salt concentrations, as simulated by the decision support system.

  9. Physico-chemical model of toxic substances in the Great Lakes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A physico-chemical model of the fate of toxic substances in the Great Lakes is constructed from mass balance principles and incorporates principal mechanisms of particulate sorption-desorption, sediment-water and atmosphere-water interactions, and chemical and biochemical decay. Calibration of the toxic model is through comparison to plutonium-239 data collected in the 1970s using a 23 year time variable calculation and indicates that in general, the sediments are interactive with the water column in the Great Lakes through resuspension and or horizontal transport. Fifty percent response times of 239Pu following a cessation of load extend beyond 10 years with sediment resuspension. The calibration model was applied to polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) using a high and low estimate of contemporary external load and with and without volatilization. Calibration of the model to data on benzo(a)pyrene confirms that on a lake-wide scale the principal external source in the atmosphere and for the larger lakes such as Michigan the response time of the lake to external loads is about 6-10 years while for Lake Erie response time is about 2 years. Application of the model to cadmium in the lakes, using a solids dependent partition coefficient indicates that the lakes do not reach equilibrium over a 100 year period. Calculated high concentrations of cadmium in interstitial water (e.g., 10 microgram/l) indicate the importance of measuring interstitial cadmium concentrations

  10. Antarctic snow and global climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Global circulation models (GCM) indicate that global warming will be most pronounced at polar regions and high latitudes, causing concern about the stability of the Antarctic ice cap. A project entitled the Seasonal Snow in Antarctica examined the properties of the near surface snow to determine the current conditions that influence snow cover development. The goal was to assess the response of the snow cover in Queen Maud Land (QML) to an increased atmospheric carbon dioxide content. The Antarctic snow cover in QML was examined as part of the FINNARP expeditions in 1999 and 2000 which examined the processes that influence the snow cover. Its energy and mass balance were also assessed by examining the near surface snow strata in shallow (1-2 m) pits and by taking measurements of environmental variables. This made it possible to determine if the glacier is in danger of melting at this northerly location in the Antarctic. The study also made it possible to determine which variables need to change and by how much, for significant melting to occur. It was shown that the Antarctic anticyclone creates particular conditions that protect the snow cover from melting. The anticyclone brings dry air from the stratosphere during most of the year and is exempt from the water vapour feedback. It was concluded that even a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide will not produce major snow melt runoff. 8 refs

  11. Testing of SIR (a transformable robotic submarine) in Lake Tahoe for future deployment at West Antarctic Ice Sheet grounding lines of Siple Coast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Powell, R. D.; Scherer, R. P.; Griffiths, I.; Taylor, L.; Winans, J.; Mankoff, K. D.

    2011-12-01

    A remotely operated vehicle (ROV) has been custom-designed and built by DOER Marine to meet scientific requirements for exploring subglacial water cavities. This sub-ice rover (SIR) will explore and quantitatively document the grounding zone areas of the Ross Ice Shelf cavity using a 3km-long umbilical tether by deployment through an 800m-long ice borehole in a torpedo shape, which is also its default mode if operational failure occurs. Once in the ocean cavity it transforms via a diamond-shaped geometry into a rectangular form when all of its instruments come alive in its flight mode. Instrumentation includes 4 cameras (one forward-looking HD), a vertical scanning sonar (long-range imaging for spatial orientation and navigation), Doppler current meter (determine water current velocities), multi-beam sonar (image and swath map bottom topography), sub-bottom profiler (profile sub-sea-floor sediment for geological history), CTD (determine salinity, temperature and depth), DO meter (determine dissolved oxygen content in water), transmissometer (determine suspended particulate concentrations in water), laser particle-size analyzer (determine sizes of particles in water), triple laser-beams (determine size and volume of objects), thermistor probe (measure in situ temperatures of ice and sediment), shear vane probe (determine in situ strength of sediment), manipulator arm (deploy instrumentation packages, collect samples), shallow ice corer (collect ice samples and glacial debris), water sampler (determine sea water/freshwater composition, calibrate real-time sensors, sample microbes), shallow sediment corer (sample sea floor, in-ice and subglacial sediment for stratigraphy, facies, particle size, composition, structure, fabric, microbes). A sophisticated array of data handling, storing and displaying will allow real-time observations and environmental assessments to be made. This robotic submarine and other instruments will be tested in Lake Tahoe in September, 2011 and

  12. Lake contamination models for evolution towards steady state

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Johan C. VAREKAMP

    2003-09-01

    Full Text Available Most lakes are in an average steady state for water but contaminants may not yet have reached steady state or are gradually being flushed out in a clean-up program. The evolution towards steady state for fully mixed or stratified lakes can be described by basic equations of mass flow. The time-concentration paths for fully mixed lakes are asymptotic toward a steady state concentration, which is reached in about 6 contaminant residence times (and clean-up also takes about 6 residence times. Stratified lakes also evolve towards a whole-lake steady state concentration but show oscillating patterns of concentration versus time, with the amplitude and dampening period depending on the volume ratio of epilimnion to total lake volume. In most natural lakes, the compositional contrast between epilimnion and hypolimnion will become almost erased in 2-4 residence times. An acid lake in North-Patagonia is used as an example of contamination of a thermally stratified lake by volcanic effluents.

  13. Antarctic research today

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    With the appetite for living and dead natural resources, the political and economical interest concerning the Antarctic increases throughout the world. There are three interrelated main subjects accounting for the international interest: The shelf tectonic puzzle of the original continent of Gondwana, where the Antarctic is situated in the centre, between Australia, South Africa and South America, and the hopes concerning the existence of mineral resources under the ice of the Antarctic are based thereon. The Antarctic forms the biggest unified living space of the world. (orig.)

  14. A dynamic model of caesium transport in lakes and their catchments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A mathematical model has been developed to predict radiocaesium concentrations over time within individual compartments of the lake and its catchment. The lake has been divided into five compartments; catchment, lake water (epilimnion and hypolimnion during stratification), lake sediment and fish. Radiocaesium enters the lake via contaminated rainfall and catchment runoff. A proportion of this radiocaesium absorbs onto suspended solids in the lake. This proportion is represented by a distribution coefficient. Sedimentation of the suspended solids occurs at a rate defined by the areal removal coefficient and results in increased caesium concentrations in the sediment. The ingestion of radiocaesium by either water column or benthic feeding fish is described by transfer functions. The model has been tested against data collected from Esthwaite water and Windermere shortly after the Chernobyl reactor accident from May 1986 to December 1987. The model simulates observed radiocaesium concentrations in Esthwaite lake water and sediment and also in lake water, sediment and fish in Windermere. The model could form the basis of a valuable management tool for the water industry should a major airborne pollution event occur again. (author)

  15. ALBEDO MODELS FOR SNOW AND ICE ON A FRESHWATER LAKE. (R824801)

    Science.gov (United States)

    AbstractSnow and ice albedo measurements were taken over a freshwater lake in Minnesota for three months during the winter of 1996¯1997 for use in a winter lake water quality model. The mean albedo of new snow was measured as 0.83±0.028, while the...

  16. A Two-dimensional Heat Transfer Model for Atmosphere-land System in the Lake-dominated Alaskan Arctic

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LING Feng; ZHANG Ting-jun

    2002-01-01

    Understanding lake ice growth and its sensitivity to climate change is vital to understand the thermal regime of thaw lake systems and predict their response to climate change. In this paper, a physically-based, two-dimensional, non-steady mathematical model is developed for studying the role of shallow tundra lakes in the Alaskan Arctic. Both the radiation absorption in lake water and the phasechange in permafrost are considerd in the model. The materials the model includes are snow, ice, water, unfrozen and frozen soil (peat, silt,sand and gravel). The basic inputs to the model observed mean daily air temperature and snow depth. The ability of this model to simulate lake ice growth and thickness variation, lake water temperature distribution, the thermal regime of permafrost and talik dynamics beneath lakes, and thawing rate of permafrost below and adjacent to shallow thaw lakes offers the potential to describe the effects of climate change in the Alaskan Arctic.

  17. Evolution of Lake Chad Basin hydrology during the mid-Holocene: A preliminary approach from lake to climate modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sepulchre, Pierre; Schuster, Mathieu; Ramstein, Gilles; Krinnezr, Gerhard; Girard, Jean-Francois; Vignaud, Patrick; Brunet, Michel

    2008-03-01

    During the mid-Holocene (6000 yr Before Present, hereafter yr BP) the Chad Basin was occupied by a large endoreic lake, called Lake Mega-Chad. The existence of this lake at that time seems linked to increased monsoonal moisture supply to the Sahel and the Sahara, which in turn was probably ultimately caused by variations in the orbital forcing and higher temperature gradients between ocean and continent. This study provides a synthesis of several works carried out on the Lake Chad Basin and analyses the results of a simulation of the mid-Holocene climate with an Atmosphere General Circulation Model (LMDZ for Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique, IPSL Paris), with emphasis on the possible conditions leading to the existence of Lake Mega-Chad. The aim is to define the best diagnostics to understand which mechanisms lead to the existence of the large lake. This paper is the first step of an ongoing work that intends to understand the environmental conditions that this part of Africa experienced during the Upper Miocene (ca. 7 Ma BP), an epoch that was contemporaneous with the first known hominids. Indeed, early hominids of Lake Chad Basin, Australopithecus bahrelghazali [ Brunet, M., et al., 1995. The first australopithecine 2500 kilometers west of the Rift-Valley (Chad). Nature, 378(6554): 273-275] and Sahelanthropus tchadensis [Brunet, M., et al., 2002. A new hominid from the Upper Miocene of Chad, central Africa. Nature, 418(6894): 145-151; Brunet, M., et al., 2005. New material of the earliest hominid from the Upper Miocene of Chad. Nature, 434(7034): 752-755] are systematically associated with wet episodes that are documented for 7 Ma BP [Vignaud, P., et al., 2002. Geology and palaeontology of the Upper Miocene Toros-Menalla hominid locality, Chad. Nature, 418(6894): 152-155] and testified by extended lacustrine deposits (diatomites, pelites, various aquatic fauna). Because the mid-Holocene was the last such mega-lake episode, our aim here is to assess the

  18. Understanding the performance of the FLake model over the African Great Lakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thiery, W.; Martynov, A.; Darchambeau, F.; Descy, J.-P.; Plisnier, P.-D.; Sushama, L.; van Lipzig, N. P. M.

    2013-10-01

    The ability of the one-dimensional lake model FLake to represent the mixolimnion temperatures for tropical conditions was tested for three locations in East Africa: Lake Kivu, Lake Tanganyika's northern and southern basins. Meteorological observations from surrounding Automatic Weather Stations were corrected and used to drive FLake, whereas a comprehensive set of water temperature profiles served to evaluate the model at each site. Careful forcing data correction and model configuration allowed to reproduce the observed mixed layer seasonality at Lake Kivu and Lake Tanganyika (northern and southern basins), with correct representation of both the mixed layer depth and temperature structure. At Lake Kivu, mixolimnion temperatures predicted by FLake were found sensitive both to minimal variations in the external parameters (lake depth and water transparency) as to small changes in the meteorological driving data, in particular wind velocity. In each case, small modifications may already lead to a regime switch from the correctly represented seasonal mixed layer deepening to either completely mixed (down to the model lake bottom) or permanently stratified (from ~10 m downwards) conditions. In contrast, model temperatures are found robust close to the surface, with acceptable predictions of near-surface water temperatures even when the seasonal mixing regime is not reproduced. FLake can thus be a suitable tool to parameterize tropical lake water surface temperatures within atmospheric prediction models, but may be less appropriate, in its current form, to study complex limnological processes within tropical lakes. Furthermore, a study of different initial conditions showed that for tropical lakes lacking reliable initial data, a fully mixed, artificially warm initialisation is to be preferred, but only if the model is allowed to spin up until convergence is reached. Finally, FLake was used to attribute the seasonal mixing cycle at Lake Kivu to variations in the near

  19. EO-based lake-ice cover and surface temperature products: Advancing process understanding and modeling capabilities of lake-atmosphere interactions in cold regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duguay, C. R.; Kheyrollah Pour, H.; Ochilov, S.

    2011-12-01

    Our ability to determine the energy and water budgets of lakes is critical to modeling high latitude weather and climate. In recent years, the proper representation of lake processes in numerical weather prediction (NWP) and regional climate (RCM) models has become a topic of much interest by the scientific community. With the increased resolution of the NWP models and RCMs, it has now become possible and necessary to improve the representation of lake-atmosphere interactions to better describe the energy exchange between the atmosphere and the lake surface. Among other lake properties, knowledge about lake surface temperature and ice-coverage is critical. These two parameters can either be obtained from observations or through simulations. Although much progress is being made with lake models, as implemented in NWP/RCM models, the assimilation of data on lake temperature and fractional ice coverage has been identified as highly desirable. Spatially and temporally consistent lake ice and lake surface temperature (LST) products are invaluable in this respect. These can be derived from Earth Observation (EO) systems. However, satellite-based products must be compared with existing lake models, as well as validated and further improved as needed, to generate lake ice and LST products for operational use by the modeling community. The European Space Agency (ESA) is supporting the international efforts coordinated by the Climate and Cryosphere (CliC) project of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) to exploit the use of EO technology, models and in situ data to improve the characterization of river and lake ice processes and their contribution to the Northern Hydrology system. The ESA-sponsored North Hydrology project aims to develop a portfolio of novel multi-mission geo-information products, maximizing the use of ESA satellite data, to respond to the scientific requirements of the CliC community and the operational requirements of the weather and climate

  20. Antarctic Miocene Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ashworth, A. C.; Lewis, A. R.

    2013-12-01

    Fossils from Antarctic Miocene terrestrial deposits, coupled with stratigraphic, geochemical and paleontological data from marine boreholes, provide new insights into the climatic history of the continent. During the Miocene, ice caps coalesced to form ice sheets and vegetated surfaces gave way to barren expanses. The cryospheric changes especially have global climatic implications. The fossil data consists of diatoms, pollen and spores, and macroscopic remains of plants, ostracods, insects, molluscs and a fish. Plant fossils include wood and leaves of Nothofagus (southern beech), seeds of several vascular plants, including Ranunculus (buttercup), Hippuris (mare's-tail) and Myriophyllum (watermilfoil), megaspores of Isoetes (quillwort), and moss species. The insect chitin consists of larval head capsules of Chironomidae (midges) and exoskeletal parts of Coleoptera (beetles). The molluscs include freshwater gastropods and bivalves. The majority of these taxa are likely descendants of taxa that had survived on the continent from the Paleogene or earlier. Even though early Miocene glaciations may have been large, the climate was never cold enough to cause the extinction of the biota, which probably survived in coastal refugia. Early Miocene (c. 20 Ma) macrofossils from the McMurdo Dry Valleys (77°S) support palynological interpretations from the Cape Roberts and ANDRILL marine records that the upland vegetation was a shrub tundra. Mean summer temperature (MST) in the uplands was c. 6°C and possibly higher at the coast. The climate was wet, supporting mires and lakes. By the mid-Miocene, even though the climate continued to be wet. MST was c. 4°C which was too cold to support Nothofagus and most vascular plant species. Stratigraphic evidence indicates that the time between the Early and Mid-Miocene was a time of repeated ice advances and retreats of small glaciers originating from ice caps. At c. 14 Ma there appears to have been a modal shift in climate to

  1. On measurements and modeling of ultraviolet radiation with focus on the Antarctic

    OpenAIRE

    Meinander, Outi

    2007-01-01

    The aim of the work was to study, on the basis of literature and experiments, the aspects of measuring and modeling ultraviolet radiation. For measurements, both the spectral and the non-spectral approaches were included. For modeling, physical and statistical models were applied. Thereafter the satellite UV estimates, i.e. spaceborn spectrometer measurements on solar radiation combined with physical UV modeling, were shortly introduced. Case studies were carried out for each of the five case...

  2. Aquatic dispersion modelling of a tritium plume in Lake Ontario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Approximately 2900 kg of tritiated water, containing 2.3E+15 Bq of tritium, were released to Lake Ontario via the cooling water discharge when a leak developed in a moderator heat exchanger in Unit 1 at the Pickering Nuclear Generating Station (PNGS) on 1992 August 2. The release provided the opportunity to study the dispersion of a tritium plume in the coastal zone of Lake Ontario. Current direction over the two-week period following the release was predominantly parallel to the shore, and elevated tritium concentrations were observed up to 20 km east and 85 km west of the PNGS. Predictions of the tritium plume movement were made using current velocity measurements taken at 8-m depth, 2.5 km offshore from Darlington and using a empirical relationship where alongshore current speed is assumed to be proportional to the alongshore component of the wind speed. The tritium migration was best described using current velocity measurements. The tritium plume dispersion is modelled using the one-dimensional advection-dispersion equation. Transport parameters are the alongshore current speed and longitudinal dispersion coefficient. Longitudinal dispersion coefficients, estimated by fitting the solution of the advection-dispersion equation to measured concentration distance profiles ranged from 3.75 to 10.57 m2s-1. Simulations using the fitted values of the dispersion coefficient were able to describe maximum tritium concentrations measured at water supply plants located within 25 km of Pickering to within a factor of 3. The dispersion coefficient is a function of spatial and temporal variability in current velocity and the fitted dispersion coefficients estimated here may not be suitable for predicting tritium plume dispersion under different current conditions. The sensitivity of the dispersion coefficient to variability in current conditions should be evaluated in further field experiments. (author). 13 refs., 7 tabs., 12 figs

  3. Morphometric analysis of Russian Plain's small lakes on the base of accurate digital bathymetric models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naumenko, Mikhail; Guzivaty, Vadim; Sapelko, Tatiana

    2016-04-01

    Lake morphometry refers to physical factors (shape, size, structure, etc) that determine the lake depression. Morphology has a great influence on lake ecological characteristics especially on water thermal conditions and mixing depth. Depth analyses, including sediment measurement at various depths, volumes of strata and shoreline characteristics are often critical to the investigation of biological, chemical and physical properties of fresh waters as well as theoretical retention time. Management techniques such as loading capacity for effluents and selective removal of undesirable components of the biota are also dependent on detailed knowledge of the morphometry and flow characteristics. During the recent years a lake bathymetric surveys were carried out by using echo sounder with a high bottom depth resolution and GPS coordinate determination. Few digital bathymetric models have been created with 10*10 m spatial grid for some small lakes of Russian Plain which the areas not exceed 1-2 sq. km. The statistical characteristics of the depth and slopes distribution of these lakes calculated on an equidistant grid. It will provide the level-surface-volume variations of small lakes and reservoirs, calculated through combination of various satellite images. We discuss the methodological aspects of creating of morphometric models of depths and slopes of small lakes as well as the advantages of digital models over traditional methods.

  4. Regional model simulation of the hydrometeorological effects of the Fucino Lake on the surrounding region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Tomassetti

    Full Text Available The drainage of the Fucino Lake of central Italy was completed in 1873, and this possibly caused significant climatic changes over the Fucino basin. In this paper we discuss a set of short-term triple-nested regional model simulations of the meteorological effects of the Fucino Lake on the surrounding region. We find that the model simulates realistic lake-breeze circulations and their response to background winds. The simulations indicate that the lake affects the temperature of the surrounding basin in all seasons and precipitation in the cold season, when cyclonic perturbations move across the region. Some effects of the lake also extend over areas quite far from the Fucino basin. Our results support the hypothesis that the drainage of the lake might have significantly affected the climate of the lake basin. However, longer simulations and further development in some aspects of the model are needed, in order to provide a more statistically robust evaluation of the simulated lake-effects.

    Key words. Hydrology (anthropogenic effects – Meteorology and atmospheric dynamics (climatology; mesoscale meteorology

  5. Modeling the global atmospheric transport and deposition of mercury to the Great Lakes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mark D. Cohen

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Mercury contamination in the Great Lakes continues to have important public health and wildlife ecotoxicology impacts, and atmospheric deposition is a significant ongoing loading pathway. The objective of this study was to estimate the amount and source-attribution for atmospheric mercury deposition to each lake, information needed to prioritize amelioration efforts. A new global, Eulerian version of the HYSPLIT-Hg model was used to simulate the 2005 global atmospheric transport and deposition of mercury to the Great Lakes. In addition to the base case, 10 alternative model configurations were used to examine sensitivity to uncertainties in atmospheric mercury chemistry and surface exchange. A novel atmospheric lifetime analysis was used to characterize fate and transport processes within the model. Model-estimated wet deposition and atmospheric concentrations of gaseous elemental mercury (Hg(0 were generally within ∼10% of measurements in the Great Lakes region. The model overestimated non-Hg(0 concentrations by a factor of 2–3, similar to other modeling studies. Potential reasons for this disagreement include model inaccuracies, differences in atmospheric Hg fractions being compared, and the measurements being biased low. Lake Erie, downwind of significant local/regional emissions sources, was estimated by the model to be the most impacted by direct anthropogenic emissions (58% of the base case total deposition, while Lake Superior, with the fewest upwind local/regional sources, was the least impacted (27%. The U.S. was the largest national contributor, followed by China, contributing 25% and 6%, respectively, on average, for the Great Lakes. The contribution of U.S. direct anthropogenic emissions to total mercury deposition varied between 46% for the base case (with a range of 24–51% over all model configurations for Lake Erie and 11% (range 6–13% for Lake Superior. These results illustrate the importance of atmospheric

  6. Model studies on the eutrophication of shallow lakes and ditches

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Janse, J.H.

    2005-01-01

    This study concentrates on eutrophication effects in shallow lakes and ponds on the one hand and in ditches (small water channels in agricultural areas) on the other. In shallow lakes (up to ca 4 m of depth), ihe clear-water community characterized by macrophytes is generally replaced by a dominance

  7. Understanding the performance of the FLake model over two African Great Lakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thiery, W.; Martynov, A.; Darchambeau, F.; Descy, J.-P.; Plisnier, P.-D.; Sushama, L.; van Lipzig, N. P. M.

    2014-02-01

    The ability of the one-dimensional lake model FLake to represent the mixolimnion temperatures for tropical conditions was tested for three locations in East Africa: Lake Kivu and Lake Tanganyika's northern and southern basins. Meteorological observations from surrounding automatic weather stations were corrected and used to drive FLake, whereas a comprehensive set of water temperature profiles served to evaluate the model at each site. Careful forcing data correction and model configuration made it possible to reproduce the observed mixed layer seasonality at Lake Kivu and Lake Tanganyika (northern and southern basins), with correct representation of both the mixed layer depth and water temperatures. At Lake Kivu, mixolimnion temperatures predicted by FLake were found to be sensitive both to minimal variations in the external parameters and to small changes in the meteorological driving data, in particular wind velocity. In each case, small modifications may lead to a regime switch, from the correctly represented seasonal mixed layer deepening to either completely mixed or permanently stratified conditions from ∼ 10 m downwards. In contrast, model temperatures were found to be robust close to the surface, with acceptable predictions of near-surface water temperatures even when the seasonal mixing regime is not reproduced. FLake can thus be a suitable tool to parameterise tropical lake water surface temperatures within atmospheric prediction models. Finally , FLake was used to attribute the seasonal mixing cycle at Lake Kivu to variations in the near-surface meteorological conditions. It was found that the annual mixing down to 60 m during the main dry season is primarily due to enhanced lake evaporation and secondarily to the decreased incoming long wave radiation, both causing a significant heat loss from the lake surface and associated mixolimnion cooling.

  8. Observations and Modeling the Advection of Carbon from an Inland Lake Surrounded By a Forest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bohrer, G.; Morin, T. H.; Kenny, W.; Vogel, C. S.

    2014-12-01

    Lake Douglas is a small inland lake in Northern Michigan, surrounded by the forest of the University of Michigan Biological Station (UMBS). Over a decade of eddy-covariance measurements of carbon fluxes at the UMBS provide us good knowledge of the rates and dynamics of fluxes between the forest and the atmosphere. However, there is very little knowledge about the flux rates from the near-by lake and how they relate to the conditions in the surrounding forest. We have conducted eddy-covariance measurements of CO2 fluxes from the lake over two summers. We found the microclimate predictably different over the lake. Carbon uptake rates by the lake ecosystem were high during the daytime, but lower than the adjacent forest, which led to higher atmospheric CO2 concentrations over the lake surface than over the forest. Using concurrent wind and CO2 concentration data from the lake and two flux towers in the forest we estimated the rate of lateral advection of CO2 from the lake to the forest. Though the lake is almost never within the forest flux tower footprint, this advection term may bias forest carbon budget estimates. To further study this advection, we generated a virtual experiment using a high resolution canopy-resolving large eddy simulation model (RAFLES). We assumed a circular lake surrounded by a homogeneous forest and prescribed typical conditions representing different times of day during the summer growing season. The observed latent and sensible heat flux rates at the forest and lake tower where prescribed to the simulated forest and lake patches in the simulation, respectively. The resolved wind field includes the effects of the different surface heat fluxes, as well as the roughness transition caused by the trees at the water edge. We used this wind field in a series of simulations using Hi-VACC, a scalar diffusion-advection model. In these Hi-VACC simulations we assumed the observed carbon flux rates as surface sinks for CO2 at the two patch types. The

  9. Application of four input-output models for nutrients in Lake Okeechobee, Florida

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Ronald L.

    1978-01-01

    R. A. Vollenweider's (1975) nonconservative model described concentrations of nitrogen and phosphorus for 1969-70 in Lake Okeechobee, Fla., better than the models of F. Biffi in 1963, R. H. Rainey in 1967, and R. Piontelli and V. Tonolli in 1964. Vollenweider's model predicted concentrations of 1.4 milligrams per liter of total nitrogen and 0.09 mg/L of total phosphorus in the lake. The concentration of nitrogen could be approximated with conservation models but phosphorus required a nonconservative model. Unless variations in input concentrations and flow rate of the tributaries are modeled, only short-term predictions of lake concentrations can be made because of variations in inflow concentrations and because of the short time required (400 days) for the lake to be flushed by its inflow.

  10. Optical turbulence: site selection above the internal Antarctic plateau with a mesoscale model

    OpenAIRE

    Masciadri, E.; Lascaux, F.; Hagelin, S.; S.; di Arcetri, INAF - Osservatorio Astrofisico

    2010-01-01

    Atmospherical mesoscale models can offer unique potentialities to characterize and discriminate potential astronomical sites. Our team has recently completely validated the Meso-Nh model above Dome C (Lascaux et al. 2009, 2010). Using all the measurements of CN2 profiles (15 nights) performed so far at Dome C during the winter time (Trinquet et al. 2008) we proved that the model can reconstruct, on rich statistical samples, reliable values of all the three most important parameters characteri...

  11. Modeling Refuge Effect of Submerged Macrophytes in Lake System.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lv, Dongyu; Fan, Meng; Kang, Yun; Blanco, Krystal

    2016-04-01

    This paper considers a significant problem in biological control of algae issue in ecological environment. A four-dimensional dynamic model is carefully formulated to characterize the interactions among phytoplankton, submerged macrophyte, zooplankton, and general fish class in a lake ecosystem. The predation relationship is modeled by Beddington-DeAngelis functional responses derived from the classical Holling time budget arguments. Qualitative analyses of the global dynamics show that the system can generate very rich dynamics with potentially 10 different equilibria and several bistable scenarios. We perform analysis on the existence and local stability of equilibria and explore the refuge effect of macrophyte on the zooplankton with numerical simulations on aquatic ecosystems. We also discuss effective methods of biological control used to restrain the increase of phytoplankton. Our study shows the proposed model could have rich and complex dynamics including but not limited to bistable and chaotic phenomenon. Numerical simulation results demonstrate that both the refuge constant and the density of the macrophytes are two key factors where refuge effects take place. In addition, the intraspecific competition between the macrophyte and the phytoplankton can also affect the macrophyte's refuge effect. Our analytical and simulation results suggest that macrophytes provide structure and shelter against predation for zooplankton such that it could restore the zooplankton population, and that planting macrophyte properly might achieve the purpose of controlling algae growth. PMID:27055658

  12. Microphysical Modeling and POAM III Observations of Aerosol Extinction in the 1998-2003 Antarctic Stratosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benson, C. M.; Drdla, K.; Nedoluha, G. E.; Shettle, E. P.; Alfred, J.; Hoppel, K. W.

    2005-12-01

    The Integrated Microphysics and Chemistry on Trajectories (IMPACT) model is used to study Polar stratospheric cloud formation and evolution in the Southern Polar vortex during the 1998-2003 winters. The model is applied to individual air parcels which are advected through the vortex on UKMO wind and temperature fields. The parcel temperature and pressure histories are used by IMPACT to calculate the formation and sedimentation of ice, NAT, SAT, and STS aerosols. Model results are validated by the Polar Ozone and Aerosol Measurement (POAM) III solar occultation instrument. Comparisons of POAM data to the model results help to constrain the microphysical parameters influencing aerosol formation and growth. Measurements of the water vapor mixing ratio are of limited use in clarifying the model microphysics; however, POAM measurements of aerosol extinction prove to be valuable in differentiating model runs. Specifically, the relationship of aerosol extinction to temperature arises from the different temperatures at which the various particle types form and grow. Comparisons of IMPACT calculations of this relationship to POAM measurements constrain the initial fraction of nuclei available for heterogeneous NAT freezing to 0.02% of all aerosols. Constraints are also placed on the ice accommodation coefficient and the NAT-ice lattice compatibility factor. However, these two parameters have similar effects on the extinction-temperature relationship, and thus a range of values are permissible for each.

  13. On the Atmospheric Correction of Antarctic Airborne Hyperspectral Data

    OpenAIRE

    Martin Black; Andrew Fleming; Teal Riley; Graham Ferrier; Peter Fretwell; John McFee; Stephen Achal; Alejandra Umana Diaz

    2014-01-01

    The first airborne hyperspectral campaign in the Antarctic Peninsula region was carried out by the British Antarctic Survey and partners in February 2011. This paper presents an insight into the applicability of currently available radiative transfer modelling and atmospheric correction techniques for processing airborne hyperspectral data in this unique coastal Antarctic environment. Results from the Atmospheric and Topographic Correction version 4 (ATCOR-4) package reveal absolute reflectan...

  14. GLIMMER Antarctic Ice Sheet Model,an experimental research of moving boundary condition

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Tang Xueyuan; Sun Bo; Zhang Zhanhai; Li Yuansheng; Yang Qinghua

    2008-01-01

    A 3 D coupled ice sheet model,GLIMMER model is introduced,and an idealized ice sheet experiment under the EISMINT 1 criterion of moving boundary condition is presented.The results of the experiment reveal that for a steady state ice sheet profile the characteristic curves describe the process of evolution which are accordant with theoretical estimates.By solving the coupled thermodynamics equations of ice sheet,one may find the characteristic curves which derived from the conservation of the mass,energy and momentum to the ice flow profile.At the same time,an agreement,approximate to the GLIMMER case and the confirmed theoretical results,is found.Present study is explorihg work to introduceand discuss the handicaps of EISMINT criterion and GLIMMER,and prospect a few directions of the GLIMMER model.

  15. On the influence of model physics on simulations of Arctic and Antarctic sea ice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Massonnet

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available Two hindcast (1983–2007 simulations are performed with the global, ocean-sea ice models NEMO-LIM2 and NEMO-LIM3 driven by atmospheric reanalyses and climatologies. The two simulations differ only in their sea ice component, while all other elements of experimental design (resolution, initial conditions, atmospheric forcing are kept identical. The main differences in the sea ice models lie in the formulation of the subgrid-scale ice thickness distribution, of the thermodynamic processes, of the sea ice salinity and of the sea ice rheology. To assess the differences in model skill over the period of investigation, we develop a set of metrics for both hemispheres, comparing the main sea ice variables (concentration, thickness and drift to available observations and focusing on both mean state and seasonal to interannual variability. Based upon these metrics, we discuss the physical processes potentially responsible for the differences in model skill. In particular, we suggest that (i a detailed representation of the ice thickness distribution increases the seasonal to interannual variability of ice extent, with spectacular improvement for the simulation of the recent observed summer Arctic sea ice retreats, (ii the elastic-viscous-plastic rheology enhances the response of ice to wind stress, compared to the classical viscous-plastic approach, (iii the grid formulation and the air-sea ice drag coefficient affect the simulated ice export through Fram Strait and the ice accumulation along the Canadian Archipelago, and (iv both models show less skill in the Southern Ocean, probably due to the low quality of the reanalyses in this region and to the absence of important small-scale oceanic processes at the models' resolution (~1°.

  16. Results of photochemical modeling sensitivity analyses in the Lake Michigan region: Current status of Lake Michigan Ozone Control Program (LMOP) modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dolwick, P.D. [Lake Michigan Air Directors Consortium, Des Plaines, IL (United States); Kaleel, R.J. [Illinois Environmental Protection Agency, Springfield, IL (United States); Majewski, M.A. [Wisconsin Dept. of Natural Resources, Madison, WI (United States)

    1994-12-31

    The four states that border Lake Michigan are cooperatively applying a state-of-the-art nested photochemical grid model to assess the effects of potential emission control strategies on reducing elevated tropospheric ozone concentrations in the region to levels below the national ambient air quality standard. In order to provide an extensive database to support the application of the photochemical model, a substantial data collection effort known as the Lake Michigan Ozone Study (LMOS) was completed during the summer of 1991. The Lake Michigan Ozone Control Program (LMOP) was established by the States of Illinois, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Indiana to carry out the application of the modeling system developed from the LMOS, in terms of developing the attainment demonstrations required from this area by the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990.

  17. Lagrangian photochemical modeling studies of the 1987 Antarctic spring vortex. I - Comparison with AAOE observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, R. L.; Austin, J.; Mckenna, D. S.; Anderson, J. G.; Fahey, D. W.; Farmer, C. B.; Vedder, J. F.

    1989-01-01

    Results from the Lagrangian photochemical model integrated along computed air parcel trajectories intersected by the ER-2 aircraft are presented and compared with AAOE observations. According to the model, the BrO observations made from the ER-2 within the dehydrated denitrified region are consistent with there being approximately 5 parts per trillion by volume of BrO(y) at 428 K in spring. Within the high ClO region, ozone destruction rates are expected to exceed 2 percent/d with approximately 80 percent due to the ClO dimer mechanism.

  18. Model simulations of the fate of 14C added to a Canadian shield lake

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carbon-14 was added to the epilimnion of a small Canadian Shield lake to investigate primary production and carbon dynamics. The nature of the spike and subsequent monitoring allowed the investigation of both short-term and longer-term processes relevant to evaluating impacts of accidental and routine releases and of solid waste disposal. Data from this experiment were used in the BIOMOVS II program as a validation test for modelling the fate of the 14C added to the lake. Four models were used: (1) a simple probabilistic mass balance model of a lake; (2) a relatively complex deterministic model; (3) a complex deterministic model; and (4) a more complex probabilistic model. Endpoints were 14C concentrations in water, sediment and lake whitefish over a thirteen year period. Each model produced reasonable predictions when compared to the range of the observed data and when uncertainty in model predictions is taken into consideration. The simple lake model did not account for internal recycling of 14C and, in this respect, its predictions were not as realistic as those of the more complex models for concentrations in water. However, the simple model predictions for the 14C inventory remaining in lake sediment were closest to the observed values. Overall, the more complex probabilistic model was the most accurate in simulating 14C concentrations in water and in whitefish but it overestimated 14C retention in the lake sediments, as did the other complex models. Choice of parameter values for transfer rate to sediment and gaseous evasion are important in influencing model predictions. Although predicted concentrations of 14C in fish of dynamic models were more accurate than those using equilibrium bioconcentration factors typically used in assessments, large variability in observed 14C concentrations in whitefish emphasizes the need for a better understanding of the important processes that influence these contaminant concentrations. (Copyright (c) 1998 Elsevier Science B

  19. Europa's Great Lakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmidt, B. E.; Blankenship, D. D.; Patterson, G. W.; Schenk, P. M.

    2012-04-01

    Unique to the surface of Europa, chaos terrain is diagnostic of the properties and dynamics of its icy shell. While models have suggested that partial melt within a thick shell or melt-through of a thin shell may form chaos, neither model has been able to definitively explain all observations of chaos terrain. However, we present a new model that suggests large melt lenses form within the shell and that water-ice interactions above and within these lenses drive the production of chaos. Our analysis of the geomorphology of Conamara Chaos and Thera Macula, was used to infer and test a four-stage lens-collapse chaos formation model: 1) Thermal plumes of warm, pure ice ascend through the shell melting the impure brittle ice above, producing a lake of briny water and surface down draw due to volume reduction. 2) Surface deflection and driving force from the plume below hydraulically seals the water in place. 3) Extension of the brittle ice lid generates fractures from below, allowing brines to enter and fluidize the ice matrix. 4) As the lens and now brash matrix refreeze, thermal expansion creates domes and raises the chaos feature above the background terrain. This new "lense-collapse" model indicates that chaos features form in the presence of a great deal of liquid water, and that large liquid water bodies exist within 3km of Europa's surface comparable in volume to the North American Great Lakes. The detection of shallow subsurface "lakes" implies that the ice shell is recycling rapidly and that Europa may be currently active. In this presentation, we will explore environments on Europa and their analogs on Earth, from collapsing Antarctic ice shelves to to subglacial volcanos in Iceland. I will present these new analyses, and describe how this new perspective informs the debate about Europa's habitability and future exploration.

  20. Large-Ensemble Modeling of Past Variations in West Antarctic Embayments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pollard, D.; Deconto, R. M.

    2014-12-01

    Recent observations of thinning and retreat of the Pine Island and Thwaites Glaciers identify this sector of West Antarctica as particularly vulnerable to future climate change. To date, most future modeling of these glaciers has beenvalidated using recent and modern observations. As an alternate approach,we apply a hybrid 3-D ice sheet-shelf model to the last deglacial retreat in this sector, making use of geologic data of ice extents from ~20,000 years BP to present, both for the Amundsen Sea sector and also for the Ross and Weddellembayments.Following recent ice-sheet studies, we use Large-Ensemble statistical techniques, performing sets of ~500 to 1000 runs with varying model parameters. The model is run for the last 20 kyrs on 5 to 20-km grids spanning West Antarctica, with lateral boundary conditions from a prior continental-scale simulation. An objective score for each run is calculated using reconstructed past grounding lines, shelf extents, relative sea levels, and modern conditions. Runs are extended into the future (few millennia) with simple atmospheric and oceanic forcing. The goal is to produce calibrated probabilistic envelopes of model parameter ranges and simulated ice retreat.Preliminary results are presented for Large Ensembles with (i) Latin HyperCube sampling in high-dimensional parameter space, and (ii) dense sampling with a lower number of parameters. We focus on optimal parameter differencesbetween the 3 embayments, validation with other paleo data, contribution to meltwater pulses ~14 to 12 ka, and future projections. Most reasonable parameter combinations produce drastic future retreat into the interior Pine Island and Thwaites basins within ~2000 years, adding ~2 m to global sea-level rise.

  1. A predictive model for the behavior of radionuclides in lake systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper describes a predictive model for the behavior of 137Cs in lacustrine systems. The model was tested by comparing its predictions to contamination data collected in various lakes in Europe and North America. The migration of 137Cs from catchment basin and from bottom sediments to lake water was discussed in detail; these two factors influence the time behavior of contamination in lake water. The contributions to the levels of radionuclide concentrations in water, due to the above factors, generally increase in the long run. The uncertainty of the model, used as a generic tool for prediction of the levels of contamination in lake water, was evaluated. Data sets of water contamination analyzed in the present work suggest that the model uncertainty, at a 68% confidence level, is a factor 1.9

  2. Study of tributary inflows in Lake Iseo with a rotating physical model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marco Pilotti

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available The influence of Coriolis force on the currents of large lakes is well acknowledged; very few contributions, however, investigate this aspect in medium-size lakes where its relevance could be questionable. In order to study the area of influence of the two major tributary rivers in Lake Iseo, a rotating vertically distorted physical model of the northern part of this lake was prepared and used, respecting both Froude and Rossby similarity. The model has a horizontal length scale factor of 8000 and a vertical scale factor of 500 and was used both in homogeneous and in thermally stratified conditions. We explored the pattern of water circulation in front of the entrance mouth for different hydrologic scenarios at the beginning of spring and in summer. We neglected the influence of winds. The primary purposes of the model were twofold: i to increase our level of knowledge of the hydrodynamics of Lake Iseo by verifying the occurrence of dynamical effects related to the Earth’s rotation on the plume of the two tributaries that enter the northern part of the lake and ii to identify the areas of the lake that can be directly influenced by the tributaries’ waters, in order to provide guidance on water quality monitoring in zones of relevant environmental and touristic value. The results of the physical model confirm the relevant role played by the Coriolis force in the northern part of the lake. Under ordinary flow conditions, the model shows a systematic deflection of the inflowing waters towards the western shore of the lake. The inflow triggers a clockwise gyre within the Lovere bay, to the West of the inflow, and a slow counter-clockwise gyre, to the East of the inflow, that returns water towards the river mouth along the eastern shore. For discharges with higher return period, when only the contribution by Oglio River is relevant, the effect of the Earth’s rotation weakens in the entrance zone and the plume has a more rectilinear pattern

  3. Digital elevation model of Walker Lake, West-Central Nevada

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — Walker Lake lies within a topographically closed basin in west-central Nevada and is the terminus of the Walker River. Accurately determining the bathymetry and...

  4. Multi-phase analytical model of radionuclide migration in lake water and bottom sediment system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Maceika, Evaldas; Filistovic, Vitold; Luksiene, Bena; Tarasiuk, Nikolay; Buivydas, Sarunas; Konstantinova, Marina; Puzas, Andrius [State research institute Center for Physical Sciences and Technology, Savanoriu ave. 231, LT-2300 Vilnius (Lithuania)

    2014-07-01

    Migration of long-lived radionuclides in lake eco-system is governed by several processes: advection, dilution, seasonal exchange, sedimentation; bioaccumulation. Interaction of dissolved radionuclide in water with the bottom sediments is of particular importance. Radionuclide can be adsorbed and desorbed by the bottom sediments. In turn, radionuclide is rapidly absorbed by organic and nonorganic origin particles in the lake water sphere. At the end, the particles will sink to the lake bottom and will form sediment layers of elevated contamination. Therefore explicit evaluation and balance of multi-phase radionuclide activity fluxes at the interface of lake water and bottom sediments surface is modelled in details. Created mathematical model, analytically describing dynamic of radionuclide migration, encompass both spheres of lake eco-system: water and bottom sediments. Solid and liquid radionuclide activity fractions are considered in every sphere. Sediment contamination is described by 1-D depth dependent advection-diffusion and adsorption/desorption reaction equation. Processes, taking place in the solid phase at the lake water sphere, are described by the adsorption/desorption dynamic equation as well as by activity fluxes balance at the interface with bottom sediments. Mathematical equations are rapidly solved by using Laplace transform and numerical inversion methods. Created model better described experimental measurement data of {sup 137}Cs radionuclide activity distribution profiles in studied lake bottom sediment vertical layers. This research was funded by a grant (No. MIP-041/2012) from the Research Council of Lithuania. (authors)

  5. Multi-phase analytical model of radionuclide migration in lake water and bottom sediment system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Migration of long-lived radionuclides in lake eco-system is governed by several processes: advection, dilution, seasonal exchange, sedimentation; bioaccumulation. Interaction of dissolved radionuclide in water with the bottom sediments is of particular importance. Radionuclide can be adsorbed and desorbed by the bottom sediments. In turn, radionuclide is rapidly absorbed by organic and nonorganic origin particles in the lake water sphere. At the end, the particles will sink to the lake bottom and will form sediment layers of elevated contamination. Therefore explicit evaluation and balance of multi-phase radionuclide activity fluxes at the interface of lake water and bottom sediments surface is modelled in details. Created mathematical model, analytically describing dynamic of radionuclide migration, encompass both spheres of lake eco-system: water and bottom sediments. Solid and liquid radionuclide activity fractions are considered in every sphere. Sediment contamination is described by 1-D depth dependent advection-diffusion and adsorption/desorption reaction equation. Processes, taking place in the solid phase at the lake water sphere, are described by the adsorption/desorption dynamic equation as well as by activity fluxes balance at the interface with bottom sediments. Mathematical equations are rapidly solved by using Laplace transform and numerical inversion methods. Created model better described experimental measurement data of 137Cs radionuclide activity distribution profiles in studied lake bottom sediment vertical layers. This research was funded by a grant (No. MIP-041/2012) from the Research Council of Lithuania. (authors)

  6. Modelling reversibility of Central European mountain lakes from acidification: Part I - the Bohemian forest

    OpenAIRE

    Majer, V.; Cosby, B. J.; Kopácek, J.; Veselý, J.

    2002-01-01

    A dynamic, process-based acidification model, MAGIC7, has been applied to three small, strongly acidified lakes in the Bohemian Forest, the Czech Republic. The model was calibrated for a set of experimental records on lake water composition over the 1984–2000 period, and produced hindcast concentrations that compared well, even with older (40-year) irregular determinations of nitrate, chloride and pH. Water and soil chemistry forecasts ...

  7. Modelling reversibility of Central European mountain lakes from acidification: Part I - the Bohemian forest

    OpenAIRE

    Majer, V.; Cosby, B. J.; Kopácek, J.; Veselý, J.

    2003-01-01

    A dynamic, process-based acidification model, MAGIC7, has been applied to three small, strongly acidified lakes in the Bohemian Forest, the Czech Republic. The model was calibrated for a set of experimental records on lake water composition over the 1984–2000 period, and produced hindcast concentrations that compared well, even with older (40-year) irregular determinations of nitrate, chloride and pH. Water and soil chemistry forecasts up to 2050 were based on reductions in S and N ...

  8. Modelling reversibility of central European mountain lakes from acidification: Part II ? the Tatra Mountains

    OpenAIRE

    Kopácek, J.; Cosby, B. J.; Majer, V.; E. Stuchlík; Veselý, J.

    2003-01-01

    A dynamic, process-based model of surface water acidification, MAGIC7, has been applied to four representative alpine lakes in the Tatra Mountains (Slovakia and Poland). The model was calibrated for a set of 12 to 22-year experimental records of lake water composition. Surface water and soil chemistry were reconstructed from 1860 to 2002 and forecast to 2050 based on the reduction in sulphur and nitrogen emissions presupposed by the Gothenburg Protocol. Relatively small changes in t...

  9. Modelling reversibility of central European mountain lakes from acidification: Part II – the Tatra Mountains

    OpenAIRE

    Kopácek, J.; Cosby, B. J.; Majer, V.; E. Stuchlík; Veselý, J.

    2002-01-01

    A dynamic, process-based model of surface water acidification, MAGIC7, has been applied to four representative alpine lakes in the Tatra Mountains (Slovakia and Poland). The model was calibrated for a set of 12 to 22-year experimental records of lake water composition. Surface water and soil chemistry were reconstructed from 1860 to 2002 and forecast to 2050 based on the reduction in sulphur and nitrogen emissions presupposed by the ...

  10. Controls and variability of solute and sedimentary fluxes in Antarctic and sub-Antarctic Environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zwolinski, Zbigniew

    2015-04-01

    The currently prepared SEDIBUD Book on "Source-to-Sink Fluxes in Undisturbed Cold Environments" (edited by Achim A. Beylich, John C. Dixon and Zbigniew Zwolinski and published by Cambridge University Press) is summarizing and synthesizing the achievements of the International Association of Geomorphologists` (I.A.G./A.I.G.) Working Group SEDIBUD (Sediment Budgets in Cold Environments), which has been active since 2005 (http://www.geomorph.org/wg/wgsb.html). The book comprises five parts. One of them is part about sub-Antarctic and Antarctic Environments. This part "Sub-Antarctic and Antarctic Environments" describes two different environments, namely oceanic and continental ones. Each part contains results of research on environmental drivers and rates of contemporary solute and sedimentary fluxes in selected sites. Apart from describing the environmental conditions of the whole continent of Antarctica and sub-Antarctic islands (Zb.Zwolinski, M.Kejna, A.N.Lastochkin, A.Zhirov, S.Boltramovich) this part of the book characterizes terrestrial polar oases free from multi-year ice and snow covers (Zb.Zwolinski). The detailed results of geoecological and sedimentological research come from different parts of Antarctica. Antarctic continental shelf (E.Isla) is an example of sub-Antarctic oceanic environment. South Shetlands, especially King George Island (Zb.Zwolinski, M.Kejna, G.Rachlewicz, I.Sobota, J.Szpikowski), is an example of sub-Antarctic terrestrial environment. Antarctic Peninsula (G.Vieira, M.Francelino, J.C.Fernandes) and surroundings of McMurdo Dry Valleys (W.B.Lyons, K.A.Welch, J.Levy, A.Fountain, D.McKnight) are examples of Antarctic continental environments. The key goals of the Antarctic and sub-Antarctic book chapters are following: (i) identify the main environmental drivers and rates of contemporary solute and sedimentary fluxes, and (ii) model possible effects of projected climate change on solute and sedimentary fluxes in cold climate environments

  11. A mathematical model for lake ontogeny in terms of filling with sediments and macrophyte vegetation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brydsten, Lars [Umeaa Univ. (Sweden). Dept. of Biology and Environmental Science

    2004-05-01

    A mathematical model for simulation of lake basin filling processes in areas with positive shore displacement was constructed. The model was calibrated using sediment and catchments data from eight existing lake basins situated in the northern coastal area of the province of Uppland, Sweden. The lake basin filling processes were separated into three phases: basin filling with wave-washed material (silt, silty sand or sand), filling with fine-grained material during the shallow gulf and lake stages, respectively, and filling with vegetation during the lake stage. The basin filling rates for wave-washed material were generally low but varied considerably both between and within lakes. The mean basin filling rate of wave-washed material was 4.1%. The volume of inorganic sediments produced, and basin filling rates during the shallow gulf and lake phases were determined for all the eight lakes. The relationship between basin filling rate and parameters describing the catchments, the former postglacial basins and the lakes, respectively, was determined using multiple regression analysis. The basin filling rate with inorganic sediments was best described by parameters related to former postglacial basin morphometry and current lake morphometry, e.g. basin volume, lake volume, and lake area. The goodness of fit turned out to be 0.99 for a simple regression with basin volume as the sole independent variable. The basin filling with vegetation (Phragmites australis followed by Sphagnum spp.) was treated as a 2-dimensional process. A dataset with 84 bogs was selected from a digital soil map. The ages of the bogs were calculated using a digital elevation map and an equation for shore displacement. The choke-up rate was then calculated by dividing the area of the bogs with their age. A strong exponential relationship exists between areas of the bogs and choke-up rat, and this relationship was then used in the model. The resulting model starts by filling the former coastal basin

  12. A mathematical model for lake ontogeny in terms of filling with sediments and macrophyte vegetation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A mathematical model for simulation of lake basin filling processes in areas with positive shore displacement was constructed. The model was calibrated using sediment and catchments data from eight existing lake basins situated in the northern coastal area of the province of Uppland, Sweden. The lake basin filling processes were separated into three phases: basin filling with wave-washed material (silt, silty sand or sand), filling with fine-grained material during the shallow gulf and lake stages, respectively, and filling with vegetation during the lake stage. The basin filling rates for wave-washed material were generally low but varied considerably both between and within lakes. The mean basin filling rate of wave-washed material was 4.1%. The volume of inorganic sediments produced, and basin filling rates during the shallow gulf and lake phases were determined for all the eight lakes. The relationship between basin filling rate and parameters describing the catchments, the former postglacial basins and the lakes, respectively, was determined using multiple regression analysis. The basin filling rate with inorganic sediments was best described by parameters related to former postglacial basin morphometry and current lake morphometry, e.g. basin volume, lake volume, and lake area. The goodness of fit turned out to be 0.99 for a simple regression with basin volume as the sole independent variable. The basin filling with vegetation (Phragmites australis followed by Sphagnum spp.) was treated as a 2-dimensional process. A dataset with 84 bogs was selected from a digital soil map. The ages of the bogs were calculated using a digital elevation map and an equation for shore displacement. The choke-up rate was then calculated by dividing the area of the bogs with their age. A strong exponential relationship exists between areas of the bogs and choke-up rat, and this relationship was then used in the model. The resulting model starts by filling the former coastal basin

  13. Modelling the mass balance and salinity of Arctic and Antarctic sea ice

    OpenAIRE

    Vancoppenolle, Martin

    2008-01-01

    Ice formed from seawater, called sea ice, is both an important actor in and a sensitive indicator of climate change. Covering 7% of the World Ocean, sea ice damps the atmosphere-ocean exchanges of heat, radiation and momentum in polar regions. It also affects the oceanic circulation at a global scale. Recent satellite and submarine observations systems indicate a sharp decrease in the extent and volume of Arctic sea ice over the last 30 years. In addition, climate models project drastic sea i...

  14. Identifying the origin of waterbird carcasses in Lake Michigan using a neural network source tracking model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kenow, Kevin P.; Ge, Zhongfu; Fara, Luke J.; Houdek, Steven C.; Lubinski, B.

    2016-01-01

    Avian botulism type E is responsible for extensive waterbird mortality on the Great Lakes, yet the actual site of toxin exposure remains unclear. Beached carcasses are often used to describe the spatial aspects of botulism mortality outbreaks, but lack specificity of offshore toxin source locations. We detail methodology for developing a neural network model used for predicting waterbird carcass motions in response to wind, wave, and current forcing, in lieu of a complex analytical relationship. This empirically trained model uses current velocity, wind velocity, significant wave height, and wave peak period in Lake Michigan simulated by the Great Lakes Coastal Forecasting System. A detailed procedure is further developed to use the model for back-tracing waterbird carcasses found on beaches in various parts of Lake Michigan, which was validated using drift data for radiomarked common loon (Gavia immer) carcasses deployed at a variety of locations in northern Lake Michigan during September and October of 2013. The back-tracing model was further used on 22 non-radiomarked common loon carcasses found along the shoreline of northern Lake Michigan in October and November of 2012. The model-estimated origins of those cases pointed to some common source locations offshore that coincide with concentrations of common loons observed during aerial surveys. The neural network source tracking model provides a promising approach for identifying locations of botulinum neurotoxin type E intoxication and, in turn, contributes to developing an understanding of the dynamics of toxin production and possible trophic transfer pathways.

  15. Using Diverse Data Types to Calibrate a Watershed Model of the Trout Lake Basin, Northern Wisconsin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hunt, R. J.; Feinstein, D. T.; Pint, C. D.; Anderson, M. P.

    2004-12-01

    As part of the USGS Water, Energy, and Biogeochemical Budgets project and NSF Long-Term Ecological Research work, a parameter estimation code was used to calibrate a deterministic groundwater flow model of the Trout Lake Basin in northern Wisconsin. Observations included traditional calibration targets (head, lake stage, and baseflow observations) as well as unconventional targets such as groundwater flows to and from lakes, depth of a lake plume, and time of travel. The unconventional data types were important for parameter estimation convergence and allowed the development of a more parameterized model. Independent estimates of groundwater inflow to lakes were most important for constraining lakebed leakance, and the depth of the lake plume was important for determining hydraulic conductivity and conceptual aquifer layering. The most important target, however, was a conventional regional baseflow target that was important for correctly distributing flow between sub-basins and the regional system. The use of parameter estimation: 1) facilitated the calibration process by providing a quantitative assessment of the model's ability to match disparate observed data types; and 2) provided a best fit for the particular model conceptualization. The model calibration required the use of a "universal" parameter estimation code in order to include all types of observations in the objective function. The methods described here help address issues of watershed complexity and non-uniqueness common to deterministic watershed models.

  16. Inclusion of mountain wave-induced cooling for the formation of PSCs over the Antarctic Peninsula in a chemistry–climate model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Orr

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available An important source of polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs, which play a crucial role in controlling polar stratospheric ozone depletion, is from the temperature fluctuations induced by mountain waves. However, this formation mechanism is usually missing in chemistry–climate models because these temperature fluctuations are neither resolved nor parameterised. Here, we investigate the representation of stratospheric mountain wave-induced temperature fluctuations by the UK Met Office Unified Model (UM at high and low spatial resolution against Atmospheric Infrared Sounder satellite observations for three case studies over the Antarctic Peninsula. At a high horizontal resolution (4 km the mesoscale configuration of the UM correctly simulates the magnitude, timing, and location of the measured temperature fluctuations. By comparison, at a low horizontal resolution (2.5° × 3.75° the climate configuration fails to resolve such disturbances. However, it is demonstrated that the temperature fluctuations computed by a mountain wave parameterisation scheme inserted into the climate configuration (which computes the temperature fluctuations due to unresolved mountain waves are in excellent agreement with the mesoscale configuration responses. The parameterisation was subsequently used to compute the local mountain wave-induced cooling phases in the chemistry–climate configuration of the UM. This increased stratospheric cooling was passed to the PSC scheme of the chemistry–climate model, and caused a 30–50% increase in PSC surface area density over the Antarctic Peninsula compared to a 30 year control simulation.

  17. Hydrologic behaviour of the Lake of Monate (Italy): a parsimonious modelling strategy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tomesani, Giulia; Soligno, Irene; Castellarin, Attilio; Baratti, Emanuele; Cervi, Federico; Montanari, Alberto

    2016-04-01

    The Lake of Monate (province of Varese, Northern Italy), is a unique example of ecosystem in equilibrium. The lake water quality is deemed excellent notwithstanding the intensive agricultural cultivation, industrial assets and mining activities characterising the surrounding areas. The lake has a true touristic vocation and is the only swimmable water body of the province of Varese, which counts several natural lakes. Lake of Monate has no tributary and its overall watershed area is equal to c.a. 6.6 km2 including the lake surface (i.e. 2.6 km2), of which 3.3 out of c.a. 4.0 km2 belong to the topographical watershed, while the remaining 0.7 km2 belong to the underground watershed. The latter is larger than the topographical watershed due to the presence of moraine formations on top of the limestone bedrock. The local administration recently promoted an intensive environmental monitoring campaign that aims to reach a better understanding of the hydrology of the lake and the subsurface water fluxes. The monitoring campaign started in October 2013 and, as a result, several meteoclimatic and hydrologic data have been collected up to now at daily and hourly timescales. Our study focuses on a preliminary representation of the hydrological behaviour of the lake through a modified version of HyMOD, a conceptual 5-parameter lumped rainfall-runoff model based on the probability-distributed soil storage capacity. The modified model is a semi-distributed application of HyMOD that uses the same five parameters of the original version and simulates the rainfall-runoff transformation for the whole lake watershed at daily time scale in terms of: direct precipitation on, and evaporation from, the lake surface; overall lake inflow, by separating the runoff component (topographic watershed) from the groundwater component (overall watershed); lake water-level oscillation; streamflow at the lake outlet. We used the first year of hydrometeorological observations as calibration data and

  18. Testing a numerical model for thermokarst lake expansion using morphologic measurements, N. Seward Peninsula, Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plug, L. J.; Walter, K.; Grosse, G.; Anthony, P.; Smith, M.

    2008-12-01

    The initiation and growth of thermokarst lakes are major factors in the dynamics of ice-rich permafrost lowlands in N. America and Siberia. These landscapes may be a globally-significant influence to past and present climates, because they store Pleistocene and Holocene C and may release it as CH4 to the atmosphere over relatively rapid time-scales. A numerical model that combines thermal processes (heat flow in lake water and permafrost) and geomorphic processes (thaw subsidence and mass movement) is a new and promising tool to investigate the influence of substrate, ground ice content, and climate on the expansion of thermokarst lakes. Models also might be used to predict dynamics of lakes and related biogeochemical processes in coming decades, given anticipated continued warming in high latitude regions. The geomorphic processes that shape natural thaw lake margins include a complicated range of diffusive and advective processes spanning simple creep to more complicated mechanisms including ice wedge melting, thaw slumping, peat-block toppling, turbidity flows, and possibly animal disturbance. The model treats the combined and time-averaged effect of these processes using new and relatively simple algorithms for slope failure and transport distance, which together produce both diffusive and advective behavior. Initial comparisons of the model with measured lake bluffs and bathymetry indicated a good match, but more measurements are needed to fully test and calibrate the model. We measured the bluff morphology and bathymetry of selected lakes of various sizes and age in the Kitluk River, Seward Peninsula, NW Alaska using sonar and DGPS. The region is characterized by continuous permafrost, a highly dissected and dynamic thermokarst landscape, uplands of Late Pleistocene permafrost deposits with high excess ice contents, and a large total volume of permafrost-stored carbon. We drive the model using approximate ground ice conditions for each lake, and compare

  19. A multi-source satellite data approach for modelling Lake Turkana water level: Calibration and validation using satellite altimetry data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Velpuri, N.M.; Senay, G.B.; Asante, K.O.

    2012-01-01

    Lake Turkana is one of the largest desert lakes in the world and is characterized by high degrees of interand intra-annual fluctuations. The hydrology and water balance of this lake have not been well understood due to its remote location and unavailability of reliable ground truth datasets. Managing surface water resources is a great challenge in areas where in-situ data are either limited or unavailable. In this study, multi-source satellite-driven data such as satellite-based rainfall estimates, modelled runoff, evapotranspiration, and a digital elevation dataset were used to model Lake Turkana water levels from 1998 to 2009. Due to the unavailability of reliable lake level data, an approach is presented to calibrate and validate the water balance model of Lake Turkana using a composite lake level product of TOPEX/Poseidon, Jason-1, and ENVISAT satellite altimetry data. Model validation results showed that the satellitedriven water balance model can satisfactorily capture the patterns and seasonal variations of the Lake Turkana water level fluctuations with a Pearson's correlation coefficient of 0.90 and a Nash-Sutcliffe Coefficient of Efficiency (NSCE) of 0.80 during the validation period (2004-2009). Model error estimates were within 10% of the natural variability of the lake. Our analysis indicated that fluctuations in Lake Turkana water levels are mainly driven by lake inflows and over-the-lake evaporation. Over-the-lake rainfall contributes only up to 30% of lake evaporative demand. During the modelling time period, Lake Turkana showed seasonal variations of 1-2m. The lake level fluctuated in the range up to 4m between the years 1998-2009. This study demonstrated the usefulness of satellite altimetry data to calibrate and validate the satellite-driven hydrological model for Lake Turkana without using any in-situ data. Furthermore, for Lake Turkana, we identified and outlined opportunities and challenges of using a calibrated satellite-driven water balance

  20. A multi-source satellite data approach for modelling Lake Turkana water level: calibration and validation using satellite altimetry data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. M. Velpuri

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Lake Turkana is one of the largest desert lakes in the world and is characterized by high degrees of inter- and intra-annual fluctuations. The hydrology and water balance of this lake have not been well understood due to its remote location and unavailability of reliable ground truth datasets. Managing surface water resources is a great challenge in areas where in-situ data are either limited or unavailable. In this study, multi-source satellite-driven data such as satellite-based rainfall estimates, modelled runoff, evapotranspiration, and a digital elevation dataset were used to model Lake Turkana water levels from 1998 to 2009. Due to the unavailability of reliable lake level data, an approach is presented to calibrate and validate the water balance model of Lake Turkana using a composite lake level product of TOPEX/Poseidon, Jason-1, and ENVISAT satellite altimetry data. Model validation results showed that the satellite-driven water balance model can satisfactorily capture the patterns and seasonal variations of the Lake Turkana water level fluctuations with a Pearson's correlation coefficient of 0.90 and a Nash-Sutcliffe Coefficient of Efficiency (NSCE of 0.80 during the validation period (2004–2009. Model error estimates were within 10% of the natural variability of the lake. Our analysis indicated that fluctuations in Lake Turkana water levels are mainly driven by lake inflows and over-the-lake evaporation. Over-the-lake rainfall contributes only up to 30% of lake evaporative demand. During the modelling time period, Lake Turkana showed seasonal variations of 1–2 m. The lake level fluctuated in the range up to 4 m between the years 1998–2009. This study demonstrated the usefulness of satellite altimetry data to calibrate and validate the satellite-driven hydrological model for Lake Turkana without using any in-situ data. Furthermore, for Lake Turkana, we identified and outlined opportunities and challenges of using a calibrated

  1. Understanding the performance of the FLake model over the East-African Great Lakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thiery, Wim; Martynov, Andrey; Darchambeau, François; Plisnier, Pierre-Denis; Descy, Jean-Pierre; van Lipzig, Nicole

    2013-04-01

    As a one-dimensional lake parameterisation scheme, FLake has already been coupled to a large number of numerical weather prediction systems, regional climate models and general circulation models. However, even though FLake has therewith become a vital tool to investigate and predict climate change impacts on lacustrine ecosystems, it has never been thoroughly tested for tropical conditions. In this study, the ability of FLake to represent tropical mixolimnion temperatures is investigated for three locations in East-Africa: Lake Kivu, Lake Tanganyika's northern and southern basins. Meteorological observations from surrounding automatic weather stations are corrected and subsequently used to drive FLake, whereas a comprehensive set of water temperature profiles serves to evaluate the model at each site. Careful input data correction and model configuration allows to reproduce the observed mixed layer seasonality at Lake Kivu and Lake Tanganyika (northern and southern basins), with correct representation of both the mixed layer depth and temperature structure. In contrast, when FLake is forced with uncorrected meteorological observations or with ERA-Interim reanalysis data, a correct mixing cycle is predicted only for Lake Tanganyika's southern basin: this is mainly due to an underestimation of wind velocities. At Lake Kivu, an extensive sensitivity study reveals that FLake's water column temperatures are sensitive both to minimal variations in the external parameters (lake depth and water transparency) and to small changes in the meteorological driving data, in particular wind velocity. In each case, small modifications may already lead to a regime switch from the correctly represented seasonal mixolimnion deepening to either completely mixed or permanently stratified conditions. Near-surface water temperatures are however more robust, with acceptable predictions even when the seasonal mixing regime is not reproduced. Furthermore, a study of different initial

  2. Estimation of Transport Trajectory and Residence Time in Large River–Lake Systems: Application to Poyang Lake (China Using a Combined Model Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yunliang Li

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The biochemical processes and associated water quality in many lakes mainly depend on their transport behaviors. Most existing methodologies for investigating transport behaviors are based on physically based numerical models. The pollutant transport trajectory and residence time of Poyang Lake are thought to have important implications for the steadily deteriorating water quality and the associated rapid environmental changes during the flood period. This study used a hydrodynamic model (MIKE 21 in conjunction with transport and particle-tracking sub-models to provide comprehensive investigation of transport behaviors in Poyang Lake. Model simulations reveal that the lake’s prevailing water flow patterns cause a unique transport trajectory that primarily develops from the catchment river mouths to the downstream area along the lake’s main flow channels, similar to a river-transport behavior. Particle tracking results show that the mean residence time of the lake is 89 days during July–September. The effect of the Yangtze River (the effluent of the lake on the residence time is stronger than that of the catchment river inflows. The current study represents a first attempt to use a combined model approach to provide insights into the transport behaviors for a large river–lake system, given proposals to manage the pollutant inputs both directly to the lake and catchment rivers.

  3. PREDICTED SEDIMENTARY SECTION OF SUBGLACIAL LAKE VOSTOK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. I. Leychenkov

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available In early February 2012, the drill hole at the Vostok Station encountered theLakeVostokwater. This step is important to study the lake composition including possible microbial life and to model subglacial environments however, the next ambitious target of the Vostok Drilling Project is sampling of bottom sediments, which contain the unique record of ice sheet evolution and environmental changes in centralAntarcticafor millions of years. In this connection, the forecast of sedimentary succession based on existing geophysical data, study of mineral inclusions in the accretion ice cores and tectonic models is important task. Interpretation of Airborne geophysical data suggests thatLakeVostokis the part of spacious rift system, which exists at least from Cretaceous. Reflection and refraction seismic experiments conducted in the southern part ofLakeVostokshow very thin (200–300 m stratified sedimentary cover overlying crystalline basement with velocity of 6.0–6.2 km/s. At present, deposition in southernLakeVostokis absent and similar conditions occurred likely at least last3 m.y. when ice sheet aboveLakeVostokchanged insignificantly. It can be also inferred that from the Late Miocene the rate of deposition inLakeVostokwas extremely low and so the most of sedimentary section is older being possibly of Oligocene to early to middle Miocene age when ice sheet oscillated and deposition was more vigorous. If so, the sampling of upper few meters of this condensed section is very informative in terms of history of Antarctic glaciation. Small thickness of sedimentary cover raises a question about existence of lake (rift depression during preglacial and early glacial times.

  4. Lagrangian and Control Volume Models for Prediction of Cooling Lake Performance at SRP

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Garrett, A.J.

    2001-06-26

    The model validation described in this document indicates that the methods described here and by Cooper (1984) for predicting the performance of the proposed L-Area cooling lake are reliable. Extensive observations from the Par Pond system show that lake surface temperatures exceeding 32.2 degrees C (90 degrees F) are attained occasionally in the summer in areas where there is little or no heating from the P-Area Reactor. Regulations which restrict lake surface temperatures to less than 32.2 degrees C should be structured to allow for these naturally-occurring thermal excursions.

  5. Estimating mercury concentrations and fluxes in the water column and sediment of Lake Ontario with HERMES model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The HERMES model-predicted Hg concentrations and fluxes in Lake Ontario were based on twelve lake and drainage basin variables (i.e., water temperature, precipitation rate, air Hg, surface area, mean depth, water volume, water inflow rate, inflow water Hg, inflow and lake suspended particulate matter, air–water and water–air mass transfer coefficients, and sedimentation rate). The HERMES model-predicted Hg water and surface sediment concentrations were found to be significantly correlated (±20%) with measured values (r2 = 0.94, p 2 = 0.95, p 2) lakes in Nova Scotia and Ontario, Canada (i.e., water and sediment Hg concentrations were ±15% of measured data). Results suggest that HERMES could be applicable to a broad range of lake sizes. Uncertainty analyses on HERMES model input variables indicated a larger atmospheric Hg contribution for Lake Ontario when compared to previous predictions for smaller lakes. - Highlights: ► A screening-level Hg model (HERMES) was evaluated on a large urban lake. ► HERMES was significantly (p < 0.0001) correlated with measured values. ► HERMES was significantly (p < 0.0001) correlated with predicted LOTOX2-Hg values. ► HERMES shows larger atmospheric Hg input then previously studied smaller lakes. - Evaluation of a screening-level Hg model (HERMES) on a large well-studied urban lake (Lake Ontario).

  6. Can the PAMOLARE 1-layer model predict eutrophication in hypertrophic lakes? A Case study: the Zaribar Lake, Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amir Hossein Hamidian

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Eutrophication is known as the most common problem in water bodies, caused by high concentrations of different nutrients leading to unbalanced growth of aquatic plants, among other symptoms. Hence, the possibility of eutrophication prediction can be beneficial to the sustainable management of these natural resources and create an opportunity to control their trophic conditions over time. A software package applied for generating these predictions is PAMOLARE with its different models (layers. The 1-Layer model of this method was selected to investigate the trophic condition of hypertrophic Zaribar Lake. Prior to 1012, water samples were collected from six stations over a seven-year period. During the last year of this period, sediment samples were also collected. The concentrations of N and P were measured in the samples. The initial results showed that the Zaribar Lake is a hypertrophic water body. Applying the PAMOLARE 1-Layer model showed that this model was not powerful enough to predict the trophic changes in this hypertrophic water body and suggested that other models should be examined and modified for use in these ecosystems. Alternatively, it is necessary to improve the software for the prediction of eutrophication in hypertrophic water bodies.

  7. How much snow falls on the Antarctic ice sheet?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Palerme

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Climate models predict Antarctic precipitation to increase during the 21st century, but their present day Antarctic precipitation differs. A fully model-independent climatology of the Antarctic precipitation characteristics, such as snowfall rates and frequency, is needed to assess the models, but was not available so far. Satellite observation of precipitation by active spaceborne sensors has been possible in the polar regions since the launch of CloudSat in 2006. Here we use CloudSat products to build the first multi-year model-independent climatology of Antarctic precipitation. The mean snowfall rate from August 2006 to April 2011 is 171 mm yr−1 over the Antarctic ice sheet north of 82° S. The ECMWF ERA Interim dataset agrees well with the new satellite climatology.

  8. Cluster regression model and level fluctuation features of Van Lake, Turkey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Z. Şen

    Full Text Available Lake water levels change under the influences of natural and/or anthropogenic environmental conditions. Among these influences are the climate change, greenhouse effects and ozone layer depletions which are reflected in the hydrological cycle features over the lake drainage basins. Lake levels are among the most significant hydrological variables that are influenced by different atmospheric and environmental conditions. Consequently, lake level time series in many parts of the world include nonstationarity components such as shifts in the mean value, apparent or hidden periodicities. On the other hand, many lake level modeling techniques have a stationarity assumption. The main purpose of this work is to develop a cluster regression model for dealing with nonstationarity especially in the form of shifting means. The basis of this model is the combination of transition probability and classical regression technique. Both parts of the model are applied to monthly level fluctuations of Lake Van in eastern Turkey. It is observed that the cluster regression procedure does preserve the statistical properties and the transitional probabilities that are indistinguishable from the original data.

    Key words. Hydrology (hydrologic budget; stochastic processes · Meteorology and atmospheric dynamics (ocean-atmosphere interactions

  9. Hydrodynamic and Inundation Modeling of China’s Largest Freshwater Lake Aided by Remote Sensing Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peng Zhang

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available China’s largest freshwater lake, Poyang Lake, is characterized by rapid changes in its inundation area and hydrodynamics, so in this study, a hydrodynamic model of Poyang Lake was established to simulate these long-term changes. Inundation information was extracted from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS remote sensing data and used to calibrate the wetting and drying parameter by assessing the accuracy of the simulated inundation area and its boundary. The bottom friction parameter was calibrated using current velocity measurements from Acoustic Doppler Current Profilers (ADCP. The results show the model is capable of predicting the inundation area dynamic through cross-validation with remotely sensed inundation data, and can reproduce the seasonal dynamics of the water level, and water discharge through a comparison with hydrological data. Based on the model results, the characteristics of the current velocities of the lake in the wet season and the dry season of the lake were explored, and the potential effect of the current dynamic on water quality patterns was discussed. The model is a promising basic tool for prediction and management of the water resource and water quality of Poyang Lake.

  10. ANALYSIS OF WATER QUALITY IN SHALLOW LAKES WITH A TWO-DIMENSIONAL FLOW-SEDIMENT MODEL

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2007-01-01

    The governing equation for sediment pollutions was derived based on the turbulent diffusion of pollutants in shallow lakes. Coupled with shallow water equations, a depth-averaged 2-D flow and water quality model was developed. By means of the conservation law, a proposed differential equation for the change of sediment pollutants was linked to the 2-D equations. Under the framework of the finite volume method, the Osher approximate Riemann solver was employed to solve the equations. An analytical resolution was used to examine the model capabilities. Simulated results matched the exact solutions especially well. As an example, the simulation of CODMn in the Wuli Lake, a part of the Taihu lake, was conducted, which led to reasonable results. This study provides a new approach and a practical tool for the simulation of flow and water quality in shallow lakes.

  11. Reconstruction and modelling of the 1977 Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) of the Engaño Lake, Chilean Patagonia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iribarren Anacona, Pablo; Norton, Kevin; Mackintosh, Andrew

    2015-04-01

    Floods from moraine-dammed lake failures can result in severe damage to mountain communities. GLOFs can also cause long-standing effects in riverine landscapes, due to the high intensity (i.e. great depth and high velocities) and long reach capacity of these events. GLOFs may increase in frequency as glaciers retreat and new lakes develop, highlighting the need for a better understanding of GLOF dynamics and the measures to reduce their negative outcomes. In Patagonia at least 16 moraine-dammed lakes have failed in historic time, however, data about GLOF dynamics and impacts are limited since GLOFs have mainly affected uninhabited areas and ungauged rivers. In March 1977, however, a GLOF flooded a small village (~130 inhabitants) in Chilean Patagonia. We reconstruct the dynamics of this event by semi-structured interviews, interpretation of satellite images (Landsat MSS) and two dimensional (2D) hydraulic modelling (using HEC-RAS 5.0 BETA and the SRTM v4 DEM). This reconstruction provides insights into GLOF behaviour, as well as the planning issues that led to socioeconomic consequences, which included relocation of the village. We mapped the flood extent and compiled data of flood depth and timing to constrain the 2D GLOF simulations. Modelling shows that the water released by the GLOF was in the order of 12-13 million cubic metres and that the flood reached Bahía Murta Viejo, located ~26 km from the failed lake, 2-3 hours after the moraine dam was breached. The flood lasted for about ten hours (at the village), although the peak discharge occurred after only one hour at this site. The maximum water depth at Bahía Murta Viejo was 1.5 m, however, water depths of up to 20 metres were simulated in upstream constricted reaches. The overall flood dynamics suggested by interviews and geomorphic mapping, including hydraulic ponding upstream of bedrock gorges, was well represented in the 2D simulations in spite of the coarse resolution (~80 m) of the DEM used. The

  12. Modeling the impediment of methane ebullition bubbles by seasonal lake ice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Greene

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Microbial methane (CH4 ebullition (bubbling from anoxic lake sediments comprises a globally significant flux to the atmosphere, but ebullition bubbles in temperate and polar lakes can be trapped by winter ice cover and later released during spring thaw. This "ice-bubble storage" (IBS constitutes a novel mode of CH4 emission. Before bubbles are encapsulated by downward-growing ice, some of their CH4 dissolves into the lake water, where it may be subject to oxidation. We present field characterization and a model of the annual CH4 cycle in Goldstream Lake, a thermokarst (thaw lake in interior Alaska. We find that summertime ebullition dominates annual CH4 emissions to the atmosphere. Eighty percent of CH4 in bubbles trapped by ice dissolves into the lake water column in winter, and about half of that is oxidized. The ice growth rate and the magnitude of the CH4 ebullition flux are important controlling factors of bubble dissolution. Seven percent of annual ebullition CH4 is trapped as IBS and later emitted as ice melts. In a future warmer climate, there will likely be less seasonal ice cover, less IBS, less CH4 dissolution from trapped bubbles, and greater CH4 emissions from northern lakes.

  13. Estimation of Transport Trajectory and Residence Time in Large River–Lake Systems: Application to Poyang Lake (China) Using a Combined Model Approach

    OpenAIRE

    Yunliang Li; Jing Yao

    2015-01-01

    The biochemical processes and associated water quality in many lakes mainly depend on their transport behaviors. Most existing methodologies for investigating transport behaviors are based on physically based numerical models. The pollutant transport trajectory and residence time of Poyang Lake are thought to have important implications for the steadily deteriorating water quality and the associated rapid environmental changes during the flood period. This study used a hydrodynamic model (MIK...

  14. Presentation and analysis of a model simulating the response of potash treatment of lakes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The potassium concentration in a lake may influence the caesium levels in lake biota. The biouptake and potential ecosystem effects of a caesium fall-out can be limited by addition of potassium, for example, by a potash treatment. This work presents for the first time a simple and practically useful model to facilitate the planning and to predict the outcome of potash treatments by simulating the processes that regulate the water chemical response of such a treatment. The model is a mixed model in the sense that it contains both statistical regressions and dynamic interactions within a lake ecosystem. This paper focuses on the dynamic processes and gives both calibrations and extensive validations of the model. A few examples on the practical use of the model are presented. The results indicate that the model, using only easily accessible input data, can, in fact, give good predictions on the increase and duration in potassium concentration following a potash treatment. (author)

  15. A heuristic simulation model of Lake Ontario circulation and mass balance transport

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKenna, J.E., Jr.; Chalupnicki, M.A.

    2011-01-01

    The redistribution of suspended organisms and materials by large-scale currents is part of natural ecological processes in large aquatic systems but can contribute to ecosystem disruption when exotic elements are introduced into the system. Toxic compounds and planktonic organisms spend various lengths of time in suspension before settling to the bottom or otherwise being removed. We constructed a simple physical simulation model, including the influence of major tributaries, to qualitatively examine circulation patterns in Lake Ontario. We used a simple mass balance approach to estimate the relative water input to and export from each of 10 depth regime-specific compartments (nearshore vs. offshore) comprising Lake Ontario. Despite its simplicity, our model produced circulation patterns similar to those reported by more complex studies in the literature. A three-gyre pattern, with the classic large counterclockwise central lake circulation, and a simpler two-gyre system were both observed. These qualitative simulations indicate little offshore transport along the south shore, except near the mouths of the Niagara River and Oswego River. Complex flow structure was evident, particularly near the Niagara River mouth and in offshore waters of the eastern basin. Average Lake Ontario residence time is 8 years, but the fastest model pathway indicated potential transport of plankton through the lake in as little as 60 days. This simulation illustrates potential invasion pathways and provides rough estimates of planktonic larval dispersal or chemical transport among nearshore and offshore areas of Lake Ontario. ?? 2011 Taylor & Francis.

  16. Reduction of Waste Water in Erhai Lake Based on MIKE21 Hydrodynamic and Water Quality Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Changjun Zhu

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available In order to study the ecological water environment in Erhai Lake, different monitoring sections were set to research the change of hydrodynamics and water quality. According to the measured data, MIKE21 Ecolab, the water quality simulation software developed by DHI, is applied to simulate the water quality in Erhai Lake. The hydrodynamics model coupled with water quality is established by MIKE21FM software to simulate the current situation of Erhai Lake. Then through the comparison with the monitoring data, the model parameters are calibrated and the simulation results are verified. Based on this, water quality is simulated by the two-dimensional hydrodynamics and water quality coupled model. The results indicate that the level of water quality in the north and south of lake is level III, while in the center of lake, the water quality is level II. Finally, the water environment capacity and total emmision reduction of pollutants are filtered to give some guidance for the water resources management and effective utilization in the Erhai Lake.

  17. Model for trace metal exposure in filter-feeding flamingos at alkaline Rift Valley Lake, Kenya

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nelson, Y.M.; DiSante, C.J.; Lion, L.W. [Cornell Univ., Ithaca, NY (United States). School of Civil and Environmental Engineering; Thampy, R.J.; Raini, J.A. [Worldwide Fund for Nature, Nakuru (Kenya). Lake Nakuru Conservation and Development Project; Motelin, G.K. [Egerton Univ., Njoro (Kenya). Dept. of Animal Health

    1998-11-01

    Toxic trace metals have been implicated as a potential cause of recent flamingo kills at Lake Nakuru, Kenya. Chromium (Cr), copper (Cu), lead (Pb), and zinc (Zn) have accumulated in the lake sediments as a result of unregulated discharges and because this alkaline lake has no natural outlet. Lesser flamingos (Phoeniconaias minor) at Lake Nakuru feed predominantly on the cyanobacterium Spirulina platensis, and because of their filter-feeding mechanism, they are susceptible to exposure to particle-bound metals. Trace metal adsorption isotherms to lake sediments and S. platensis were obtained under simulated lake conditions, and a mathematical model was developed to predict metal exposure via filter feeding based on predicted trace metal phase distribution. Metal adsorption to suspended solids followed the trend Pb {much_gt} Zn > Cr > Cu, and isotherms were linear up to 60 {micro}g/L. Adsorption to S. platensis cells followed the trend Pb {much_gt} Zn > Cu > Cr and fit Langmuir isotherms for Cr, Cu and Zn and a linear isotherm for Pb. Predicted phase distributions indicated that Cr and Pb in Lake Nakuru are predominantly associated with suspended solids, whereas Cu and Zn are distributed more evenly between the dissolved phase and particulate phases of both S. platensis and suspended solids. Based on established flamingo feeding rates and particle size selection, predicted Cr and Pb exposure occurs predominantly through ingestion of suspended solids, whereas Cu and Zn exposure occurs through ingestion of both suspended solids and S. platensis. For the lake conditions at the time of sampling, predicted ingestion rates based on measured metal concentrations in lake suspended solids were 0.71, 6.2, 0.81, and 13 mg/kg-d for Cr, Cu, Pb, and Zn, respectively.

  18. Modeling Lake Turkana Hydrology: Evaluating the potential hydrological impact of Gibe III reservoir on the Lake Turkana water levels using multi-source satellite data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Velpuri, N.; Senay, G. B.

    2012-12-01

    Ethiopia is currently building the Gibe III hydroelectric dam on the Omo River, which supplies >80% of the inflows to Lake Turkana, Kenya. On completion, the Gibe III dam will be the tallest dam in Africa (height of 241 m) with a storage capacity of 14.5 billion m3. Arguably, this is one of the most controversial hydro-power projects in the region because the nature of interactions and potential impacts of the dam regulated flows on Lake Turkana are not well understood due to its remote location and unavailability of reliable in situ hydrological datasets. In this research, we used a calibrated multi-source satellite data-driven water balance model for Lake Turkana that takes into account 12 years (1998-2009) of satellite rainfall, model routed runoff, lake/reservoir evapotranspiration, direct rain on lakes/reservoirs and releases from the dam to compute lake water levels. The model was used to evaluate the impact of the Gibe III dam using three different simple but robust approaches - a historical approach; a rainfall based sampling approach; and a non-parametric bootstrap resampling approach to generate rainfall-runoff scenarios. Modelling results indicate that, on average, the reservoir would take up to 8-10 months to reach minimum operation level of 201 m (initial impoundment period). During this period, the dam would regulate the lake inflows up to 50% and as a result the lake level would drop up to 2 m. However, after the initial impoundment period, due to releases from the dam, the rate of lake inflows would be around 10 m3/s less when compared to the rate without Gibe III (650 m3/s). Due to this, the lake levels will decline on average 1.5 m (3 m). Over the entire modeling period including the initial period of impoundment, the average rate of lake inflows due to Gibe III dam was estimated to be 500 m3/s. Results indicated that dam would also moderate the seasonal fluctuations in the lake. Areas along the Lake Turkana shoreline that are vulnerable to

  19. Underflows in Lake Constance - Numerical Modeling, Instrumental Observations and Sediment Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eder, Magdalena; Wessels, Martin; Dare, Julian

    2014-05-01

    A torrential rain event in the western Alps in August 2005 caused high flood flows in the rivers Alpine Rhine and Bregenzer Ache which are the main tributaries into Lake Constance. The discharge of the Alpine Rhine reached 2200 m³/s, which is little below a centennial flood event. Discharge of the Bregenzer Ache was estimated to 1350 m³/s which statistically occurs every 100 yr but with a 1000 yr frequency in selected smaller tributaries. The high concentration of suspended solids in the fluvial water increased its density and created an underflow with considerable influence on the lake's hydrodynamics and water quality. Consequences within the lake were directly registered by a mooring (equipped with thermistor chain, sediment trap, current meter, oxygen sensor). Spatial data of the path and form of suspended matter cloud within the lake were gathered using echo sounder and probe measurements (turbidity, temperature, salinity). An underflow with a temperature of 14°C flew with 1.4 km/h some 20 km into the lake. Several days after the event, the fluvial sediments were detected as increased turbidity at the drinking water outtakes around the lake. Sediment cores recovered from the lake bottom show the distribution pattern of the sediments while sidescan data give a picture from proximal sediment structures originating from this event. Further, we modelled this underflow using the three dimensional hydrodynamic and water quality model ELCOM-CAEDYM. The suspended solids module of the model accounts for the impact of the sediment load on water density. Settling is considered using Stokes Law, and resuspension can also be included. The simulation of the August 2005 flood event and comparison with measured data impressively showed the ability to reproduce the most important effects of the flood flow on the lake. Comparative simulations with and without consideration of the coriolis effect indicate an influence of the coriolis force on the flow path of the density

  20. High-resolution modelling of the Antarctic surface mass balance, application for the 20th, 21st and 22nd centuries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agosta, Cécile; Favier, Vincent; Krinner, Gerhard; Gallée, Hubert; Genthon, Christophe

    2013-04-01

    Although areas below 2000 m above sea level (a.s.l.) cover 40% of the Antarctic grounded ice-sheet, they represent about 75% of the surface mass balance (SMB) of the continent. Because the topography is complex in many of these regions, SMB modelling is highly dependent on resolution, and studying the impact of Antarctica on the future rise in sea level requires high resolution physical approaches. We have developed a new, low time consuming, physical downscaling model for high-resolution (15 km) long-term SMB projections. Here, we present results of our SMHiL (surface mass balance high-resolution downscaling) model, which was forced with the LMDZ4 atmospheric general circulation model to assess SMB variation in the 21st and the 22nd centuries under two different scenarios. The higher resolution of SMHiL reproduces the geographical patterns of SMB better and induces a significantly higher averaged SMB over the grounded ice-sheet for the end of the 20th century. Our comparison of more than 2700 quality-controlled field data showed that LMDZ4 and SMHiL fit the observed values equally well. Nevertheless, field data below 2000 m a.s.l. are too scarce to settle SMHiL efficiency. Measuring the SMB in these undocumented areas is a future scientific priority. Our results suggest that running LMDZ4 at a finer resolution may give a future increase in SMB in Antarctica between 15% to 30% higher than its standard resolution. Future changes in the Antarctic SMB at low elevations will result from the conflict between higher snow accumulation and runoff. For this reason, developing a downscaling model was crucial to represent processes in sufficient detail and correctly model the SMB in coastal areas.

  1. Hydrological modelling of a closed lake (Laguna Mar Chiquita, Argentina) in the context of 20th century climatic changes

    OpenAIRE

    Troin, M.; Vallet-Coulomb, C.; Sylvestre, Florence; Piovano, E.

    2010-01-01

    A major hydroclimatic change occured in southeastern South America at the beginning of the 1970s. This change was recorded in Laguna Mar Chiquita (central Argentina), the terminal saline lake of a 127,000 km(2) catchment as a dramatic rise in lake level larger than any observed over the past 230 years. Based on available continuous lake level monitoring since 1967, our study aimed to develop a lake water balance model for investigating the link between climate and lake level variations. Since...

  2. Modeling lake trophic state: a random forest approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Productivity of lentic ecosystems has been well studied and it is widely accepted that as nutrient inputs increase, productivity increases and lakes transition from low trophic state (e.g. oligotrophic) to higher trophic states (e.g. eutrophic). These broad trophic state classi...

  3. Assessing Lake Trophic Status: A Proportional Odds Logistic Regression Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lake trophic state classifications are good predictors of ecosystem condition and are indicative of both ecosystem services (e.g., recreation and aesthetics), and disservices (e.g., harmful algal blooms). Methods for classifying trophic state are based off the foundational work o...

  4. Specific-activity and concentration model applied to cesium movement in an oligotrophic lake

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A linear systems-analysis model was derived to simulate the time-dependent dynamics of specific activity and concentration of radionuclides in aquatic systems. Transfer coefficients were determined for movement of 137Cs in the components of an oligotrophic lake. These coefficients were defined in terms of basic environmental and ecological data so that the model can be applied to a wide variety of sites. Simulations with a model that ignored sediment--water interactions predicted much higher 137Cs specific activities in the lake water and biota than did those with the complete model. Comparing 137Cs concentrations predicted by the model with concentrations reported for the biota of an experimentally contaminated oligotrophic lake indicated that the transfer coefficients derived for the biota are adequate

  5. Methane emissions from pan-Arctic lakes during the 21st century: An analysis with process-based models of lake evolution and biogeochemistry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, Zeli; Zhuang, Qianlai

    2015-12-01

    The importance of methane emissions from pan-Arctic lakes in the global carbon cycle has been suggested by recent studies. These studies indicated that climate change influences this methane source mainly in two ways: the warming of lake sediments and the evolution of thermokarst lakes. Few studies have been conducted to quantify the two impacts together in a unified modeling framework. Here we adapt a region-specific lake evolution model to the pan-Arctic scale and couple it with a lake methane biogeochemical model to quantify the change of this freshwater methane source in the 21st century. Our simulations show that the extent of thaw lakes will increase throughout the 21st century in the northern lowlands of the pan-Arctic where the reworking of epigenetic ice in drained lake basins will continue. The projected methane emissions by 2100 are 28.3 ± 4.5 Tg CH4 yr-1 under a low warming scenario (Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6) and 32.7 ± 5.2 Tg CH4 yr-1 under a high warming scenario (RCP 8.5), which are about 2.5 and 2.9 times the simulated present-day emissions. Most of the emitted methane originates from nonpermafrost carbon stock. For permafrost carbon, the methanogenesis will mineralize a cumulative amount of 3.4 ± 0.8 Pg C under RCP 2.6 and 3.9 ± 0.9 Pg C under RCP 8.5 from 2006 to 2099. The projected emissions could increase atmospheric methane concentrations by 55.0-69.3 ppb. This study further indicates that the warming of lake sediments dominates the increase of methane emissions from pan-Arctic lakes in the future.

  6. Simulating Microwave Scattering for Wetland Vegetation in Poyang Lake, Southeast China, Using a Coherent Scattering Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jingjuan Liao

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available We developed a polarimetric coherent electromagnetic scattering model for Poyang Lake wetland vegetation. Realistic canopy structures including curved leaves and the lodging situation of the vegetation were taken into account, and the situation at the ground surface was established using an Advanced Integral Equation Model combined with Oh’s 2002 model. This new model can reasonably describe the coherence effect caused by the phase differences of the electromagnetic fields scattered from different particles by different scattering mechanisms. We obtained good agreement between the modeling results and C-band data from the Radarsat-2 satellite. A simulation of scattering from the vegetation in Poyang Lake showed that direct vegetation scattering and the single-ground-bounce mechanism are the dominant scattering mechanisms in the C-band and L-band, while the effects of the double-ground-bounce mechanism are very small. We note that the curvature of the leaves and the lodging characteristics of the vegetation cannot be ignored in the modeling process. Monitoring soil moisture in the Poyang Lake wetland with the C-band data was not feasible because of the density and depth of Poyang Lake vegetation. When the density of Poyang Lake Carex increases, the backscattering coefficient either decreases or remains stable.

  7. Preliminary trophic network analysis of subalpine Lake Annecy (France using an Ecopath model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Gerdeaux

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available Lake Annecy is the second largest natural lake in France, with intensive commercial and recreational fisheries. However, there is limited knowledge of its trophic interaction. A preliminary Ecopath model was fitted to study the trophic interaction in the lake using the available data on most of the ecosystem compartments. Fourteen functional groups were used in the present analysis. Most of the consumers have ecotrophic efficiency from 0.3 to 0.6. The results show that flow from detritus is as important as flow from primary producers. The overall transfer efficiency of the system is 9.6. The primary production/respiration (Pp/R ratio, which is 3.253, shows that Lake Annecy's ecosystem is comparatively mature. The gross efficiency of fisheries is 0.001173. Catch trophic level and percentage of primary productivity required for catch show that fishery in Lake Annecy is stable. The values of ascendancy (31.2 and overhead (68.8 show the stability of the ecosystem. Mixed trophic analysis indicates that zoobenthos have a positive effect on most of the fish functional groups. This preliminary model can be helpful to pinpoint the gaps in the present knowledge about Lake Annecy.

  8. Presentation of a model simulating the response of lakes to fertilizations to reduce radiocesium levels in fish

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lake fertilization is a potential remedy for toxic contamination in lakes with low productivity, which are known to be sensitive to, e.g. radionuclides, metals and organic toxins. This study presents a model to plan the duration and predict the outcome of fertilization in lakes. Several methods of lake fertilization have been used in field experiments: (1) Lake and wetland liming using 'mixed' lime with added phosphorus; (2) treatment with commercial fertilizers; and (3) using effluents (containing phosphorus) from fish farms. This model is basically a dynamic model using differential equations to handle fluxes, amounts and concentrations. It also includes several empirical relationships, because the model is meant to be used in practice and the driving variables should be few and readily available, like catchment and lake morphometric data. The model is primarily intended to be used as a sub-model predicting realistic changes in phosphorus and potassium concentrations and in lake pH caused by these remedial measures within the framework of a more extensive lake model for radiocesium. It is, however, meant to be based on the fundamental processes regulating phosphorus fluxes in lakes, and could be of interest also in contexts other than radioecology. It is driven by the amount of fertilizer added to the lake and the month of treatment. The consequences for the spread, biological uptake and concentrations of radiocesium are also discussed and simulated. The phosphorus model is, and must be, easy to handle since all the input data should be derived either from maps or from regular monitoring programs. In this paper, the model is presented and calibrations are examined. The results of the calibrations indicate that the model should be useful for managers to optimise lake fertilization, e.g. in contexts of lake radioecology where the benefits and drawbacks of different remedial strategies are evaluated (multi-attribute analysis). (Copyright (c) 1998 Elsevier Science B

  9. First geomagnetic measurements in the Antarctic region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raspopov, O. M.; Demina, I. M.; Meshcheryakov, V. V.

    2014-05-01

    Based on data from literature and archival sources, we have further processed and analyzed the results of geomagnetic measurements made during the 1772-1775 Second World Expedition by James Cook and the 1819-1821 overseas Antarctic Expedition by Russian mariners Bellingshausen and Lazarev. Comparison with the GUFM historical model showed that there are systematic differences in the spatial structure of both the declination and its secular variation. The results obtained can serve as a basis for the construction of regional models of the geomagnetic field for the Antarctic region.

  10. Numerical modelling of glacial lake outburst floods using physically based dam-breach models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Westoby, M. J.; Brasington, J.; Glasser, N. F.; Hambrey, M. J.; Reynolds, J. M.; Hassan, M. A. A. M.; Lowe, A.

    2015-03-01

    The instability of moraine-dammed proglacial lakes creates the potential for catastrophic glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) in high-mountain regions. In this research, we use a unique combination of numerical dam-breach and two-dimensional hydrodynamic modelling, employed within a generalised likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) framework, to quantify predictive uncertainty in model outputs associated with a reconstruction of the Dig Tsho failure in Nepal. Monte Carlo analysis was used to sample the model parameter space, and morphological descriptors of the moraine breach were used to evaluate model performance. Multiple breach scenarios were produced by differing parameter ensembles associated with a range of breach initiation mechanisms, including overtopping waves and mechanical failure of the dam face. The material roughness coefficient was found to exert a dominant influence over model performance. The downstream routing of scenario-specific breach hydrographs revealed significant differences in the timing and extent of inundation. A GLUE-based methodology for constructing probabilistic maps of inundation extent, flow depth, and hazard is presented and provides a useful tool for communicating uncertainty in GLOF hazard assessment.

  11. A dynamic model of the Cs-137 concentration in fish applied on seven different lake ecosystems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    IAEA has initiated a Co-ordinated Research Programme for validation of radioecological models (VAMP) using the Chernobyl data. One group studies the dynamic behaviour of radionuclides in fresh water. Within this group, scenarious are designed with the purpose to evaluate the concentration of Cs-137 in water, sediment and biota for seven specified lakes, covering a wide range of conditions. Studsvik EcoSafe participates in this study both as contributor of observation data as well as to model all the lakes. The emphasis for Studsvik is to develop a general model for all types of lakes and to study how that model preliminary results for water and fish are shown and discussed. (au)

  12. Cloud acidity and acidic deposition in the lower troposphere and ozone depletion in the Antarctic stratosphere: Modeling and data analysis regarding the role of atmospheric aerosol

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This study focused on the role of atmospheric aerosols in determining the cloud acidity and acidic deposition in the lower troposphere and the ozone depletion in the Antarctic stratosphere. For the former, a cloud chemistry model is developed to study the in-cloud chemistry and acidity in cloud droplets. The cloud chemistry model includes the absorption of trace gases, the oxidation of aqueous phase SO2, and the scavenging of atmospheric aerosols. A new scheme is developed to differentiate the acidity and chemical composition distributing in individual cloud droplets. The above cloud chemistry model is incorporated into a two-layer flow model in order to investigate the effects of mountain waves on the cloud acidity. Using the three-year database acquired at Mt. Mitchell site, the in-cloud chemistry and acidic deposition through dry, wet and cloud deposition pathways are investigated. The in-cloud scavenging of submicron aerosols such as sulfates and nitrates is parameterized as a function of cloud deposition rate. The deposition fluxes of sulfur (S) compounds are found primarily contributed by cloud capture mechanism followed by incident precipitation and dry deposition. A comparison of deposition estimates at Mt. Mitchell with those at other sites shows that the sulfate deposition at sites exceeding 1,200 m MSL in elevation in Bavaria (Germany) and eastern USA is almost identical within error limits. The features of the Antarctic stratospheric aerosols during the ozone depletion episode of October 1987 are investigated based on the SAGE 2 (Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment 2) data. The study focuses on (1) inferring the aerosol size spectrum using a modified randomized minimization-search-technique (RMST), and (2) investigating the vertical, zonal and columnar averages of aerosol properties, together with the ozone concentration

  13. Modeling 1993-2008 climatology of seasonal general circulation and thermal structure in the Great Lakes using FVCOM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bai, Xuezhi; Wang, Jia; Schwab, David J.; Yang, Yi; Luo, Lin; Leshkevich, George A.; Liu, Songzhi

    2013-05-01

    An unstructured Finite Volume Coastal Ocean Model was applied to all five Great Lakes simultaneously to simulate circulation and thermal structure from 1993 to 2008. Model results are compared to available observations of currents and temperature and previous modeling work. Maps of climatological circulation for all five Great lakes are presented. Winter currents show a two-gyre type circulation in Lakes Ontario and Erie and one large-scale cyclonic circulation in Lakes Michigan, Huron, and Superior. During the summer, a cyclonic circulation remains in Lakes Superior; a primarily cyclonic circulation dominates upper and central Lake Huron; Lake Ontario has a single cyclonic circulation, while circulation in the central basin of Lake Erie remains two-gyre type; Lake Michigan has a cyclonic gyre in the north and an anti-cyclonic one in the south. The temperature profile during the summer is well simulated when a surface wind-wave mixing scheme is included in the model. Main features of the seasonal evolution of water temperature, such as inverse temperature stratification during the winter, the spring and autumn overturn, the thermal bar, and the stratification during summer are well reproduced. The lakes exhibit significant annual and interannual variations in current speed and temperature.

  14. Estimation of the mean depth of boreal lakes for use in numerical weather prediction and climate modelling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Margarita Choulga

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Lakes influence the structure of the atmospheric boundary layer and, consequently, the local weather and local climate. Their influence should be taken into account in the numerical weather prediction (NWP and climate models through parameterisation. For parameterisation, data on lake characteristics external to the model are also needed. The most important parameter is the lake depth. Global database of lake depth GLDB (Global Lake Database is developed to parameterise lakes in NWP and climate modelling. The main purpose of the study is to upgrade GLDB by use of indirect estimates of the mean depth for lakes in boreal zone, depending on their geological origin. For this, Tectonic Plates Map, geological, geomorphologic maps and the map of Quaternary deposits were used. Data from maps were processed by an innovative algorithm, resulting in 141 geological regions where lakes were considered to be of kindred origin. To obtain a typical mean lake depth for each of the selected regions, statistics from GLDB were gained and analysed. The main result of the study is a new version of GLDB with estimations of the typical mean lake depth included. Potential users of the product are NWP and climate models.

  15. Challenges in understanding, modelling, and mitigating Lake Outburst Flood Hazard: experiences from Central Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mergili, Martin; Schneider, Demian; Andres, Norina; Worni, Raphael; Gruber, Fabian; Schneider, Jean F.

    2010-05-01

    Lake Outburst Floods can evolve from complex process chains like avalanches of rock or ice that produce flood waves in a lake which may overtop and eventually breach glacial, morainic, landslide, or artificial dams. Rising lake levels can lead to progressive incision and destabilization of a dam, to enhanced ground water flow (piping), or even to hydrostatic failure of ice dams which can cause sudden outflow of accumulated water. These events often have a highly destructive potential because a large amount of water is released in a short time, with a high capacity to erode loose debris, leading to a powerful debris flow with a long travel distance. The best-known example of a lake outburst flood is the Vajont event (Northern Italy, 1963), where a landslide rushed into an artificial lake which spilled over and caused a flood leading to almost 2000 fatalities. Hazards from the failure of landslide dams are often (not always) fairly manageable: most breaches occur in the first few days or weeks after the landslide event and the rapid construction of a spillway - though problematic - has solved some hazardous situations (e.g. in the case of Hattian landslide in 2005 in Pakistan). Older dams, like Usoi dam (Lake Sarez) in Tajikistan, are usually fairly stable, though landsildes into the lakes may create floodwaves overtopping and eventually weakening the dams. The analysis and the mitigation of glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) hazard remains a challenge. A number of GLOFs resulting in fatalities and severe damage have occurred during the previous decades, particularly in the Himalayas and in the mountains of Central Asia (Pamir, Tien Shan). The source area is usually far away from the area of impact and events occur at very long intervals or as singularities, so that the population at risk is usually not prepared. Even though potentially hazardous lakes can be identified relatively easily with remote sensing and field work, modeling and predicting of GLOFs (and also

  16. Measured and modelled trends in European mountain lakes: results of fifteen years of cooperative studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michela ROGORA

    2004-02-01

    Full Text Available Papers included in this Special Issue of the Journal of Limnology present results of long-term ecological research on mountain lakes throughout Europe. Most of these studies were performed over the last 15 years in the framework of some EU-funded projects, namely AL:PE 1 and 2, MOLAR and EMERGE. These projects together considered a high number of remote lakes in different areas or lake districts in Europe. Central to the projects was the idea that mountain lakes, while subject to the same chemical and biological processes controlling lowland lakes, are more sensitive to any input from their surroundings and can be used as earlywarning indicators of atmospheric pollution and climate change. A first section of this special issue deal with the results of long-term monitoring programmes at selected key-sites. A second section focuse on site-specific and regional applications of an acidification model designed to reconstruct and predict long-term changes in the chemistry of mountain lakes.

  17. Was Lates Late? A Null Model for the Nile Perch Boom in Lake Victoria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Downing, Andrea S.; Galic, Nika; Goudswaard, Kees P. C.; van Nes, Egbert H.; Scheffer, Marten; Witte, Frans; Mooij, Wolf M.

    2013-01-01

    Nile perch (Lates niloticus) suddenly invaded Lake Victoria between 1979 and 1987, 25 years after its introduction in the Ugandan side of the lake. Nile perch then replaced the native fish diversity and irreversibly altered the ecosystem and its role to lakeshore societies: it is now a prised export product that supports millions of livelihoods. The delay in the Nile perch boom led to a hunt for triggers of the sudden boom and generated several hypotheses regarding its growth at low abundances – all hypotheses having important implications for the management of Nile perch stocks. We use logistic growth as a parsimonious null model to predict when the Nile perch invasion should have been expected, given its growth rate, initial stock size and introduction year. We find the first exponential growth phase can explain the timing of the perch boom at the scale of Lake Victoria, suggesting that complex mechanisms are not necessary to explain the Nile perch invasion or its timing. However, the boom started in Kenya before Uganda, indicating perhaps that Allee effects act at smaller scales than that of the whole Lake. The Nile perch invasion of other lakes indicates that habitat differences may also have an effect on invasion success. Our results suggest there is probably no single management strategy applicable to the whole lake that would lead to both efficient and sustainable exploitation of its resources. PMID:24204684

  18. Sugars in Antarctic aerosol

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barbaro, Elena; Kirchgeorg, Torben; Zangrando, Roberta; Vecchiato, Marco; Piazza, Rossano; Barbante, Carlo; Gambaro, Andrea

    2015-10-01

    The processes and transformations occurring in the Antarctic aerosol during atmospheric transport were described using selected sugars as source tracers. Monosaccharides (arabinose, fructose, galactose, glucose, mannose, ribose, xylose), disaccharides (sucrose, lactose, maltose, lactulose), alcohol-sugars (erythritol, mannitol, ribitol, sorbitol, xylitol, maltitol, galactitol) and anhydrosugars (levoglucosan, mannosan and galactosan) were measured in the Antarctic aerosol collected during four different sampling campaigns. For quantification, a sensitive high-pressure anion exchange chromatography was coupled with a single quadrupole mass spectrometer. The method was validated, showing good accuracy and low method quantification limits. This study describes the first determination of sugars in the Antarctic aerosol. The total mean concentration of sugars in the aerosol collected at the "Mario Zucchelli" coastal station was 140 pg m-3; as for the aerosol collected over the Antarctic plateau during two consecutive sampling campaigns, the concentration amounted to 440 and 438 pg m-3. The study of particle-size distribution allowed us to identify the natural emission from spores or from sea-spray as the main sources of sugars in the coastal area. The enrichment of sugars in the fine fraction of the aerosol collected on the Antarctic plateau is due to the degradation of particles during long-range atmospheric transport. The composition of sugars in the coarse fraction was also investigated in the aerosol collected during the oceanographic cruise.

  19. Modelling reversibility of central European mountain lakes from acidification: Part II – the Tatra Mountains

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Kopácek

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available A dynamic, process-based model of surface water acidification, MAGIC7, has been applied to four representative alpine lakes in the Tatra Mountains (Slovakia and Poland. The model was calibrated for a set of 12 to 22-year experimental records of lake water composition. Surface water and soil chemistry were reconstructed from 1860 to 2002 and forecast to 2050 based on the reduction in sulphur and nitrogen emissions presupposed by the Gothenburg Protocol. Relatively small changes in the soil C:N ratios were not sufficient to simulate observed changes in NO3‾ concentrations, so an alternative empirical approach of changes in terrestrial N uptake was applied. Measured sulphate sorption isotherms did not allow calibration of the pattern of sulphate response in the lakes, indicating that other mechanisms of S release were also important. The lake water chemistry exhibited significant changes during both the acidification advance (1860 to 1980s and retreat (1980s to 2010. An increase in lake water concentrations of strong acid anions (SAA; 104–149 μeq l–1 was balanced by a decline in HCO3‾ (13–62 μeq l–1 and an increase in base cations (BC; 42–72 μeq l–1, H+ (0-18 μeq l–1, and Alin+ (0–26 μeq l–1. The carbonate buffering system was depleted in three lakes. In contrast, lake water concentrations of SAA, BC, H+, and Alin+ decreased by 57–82, 28–42, 0–11, and 0–22 μeq l–1, respectively, the carbonate buffering system was re-established, and HCO3‾ increased by 1–21 μeq l–1 during the chemical reversal from atmospheric acidification (by 2000. The MAGIC7 model forecasts a slight continuation in this reversal for the next decade and new steady-state conditions thereafter. Gran alkalinity should come back to 1950s levels (0–71 μeq l–1 in all lakes after 2010. Partial recovery of the soil pool of exchangeable base cations can be expected in one catchment, while only conservation of the current conditions is

  20. A simple lumped model to convert air temperature into surface water temperature in lakes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Piccolroaz

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Water temperature in lakes is governed by a complex heat budget, where the single fluxes are hardly assessable over long time periods in the absence of high accuracy data. In order to address this issue, we developed Air2Water, a simple physically-based model to relate the temperature of the lake superficial layer (epilimnion to air temperature only. The model accounts for the overall heat exchanges with the atmosphere and the deeper layer of the lake (hypolimnion by means of simplified relationships, which contain a few parameters (from four to eight in the different proposed formulations to be calibrated with the combined use of air and water temperature measurements. In particular, the calibration of the parameters in a given case study allows one to estimate, in a synthetic way, the influence of the main processes controlling the lake thermal dynamics, and to recognize the atmospheric temperature as the main factor driving the evolution of the system. In fact, the air temperature variation implicitly contains proper information about the variation of other major processes, and hence in our approach is considered as the only input variable of the model. Furthermore, the model can be easily used to predict the response of a lake to climate change, since projected air temperatures are usually available by large-scale global circulation models. In this paper, the model is applied to Lake Superior (USA – Canada considering a 27-yr record of measurements, among which 18 yr used for calibration and the remaining 9 yr for model validation. The results show a remarkable agreement with measurements, over the entire data period. The use of air temperature reconstructed by satellite imagery is also discussed.

  1. Lake Diefenbaker: Water Quality Assessment and Modeling for Management under Environmental Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sereda, J.; Wheater, H. S.; Hudson, J.; Doig, L.; Liber, K.; Jones, P.; Giesy, J.; Bharadwaj, L.

    2011-12-01

    and temporally). Concentrations of nutrients are heterogeneous throughout the lake. Preliminary results indicate that the degree and type of nutrient limitation, along with the cycling of phosphorus (uptake and regeneration) by plankton assemblages varies spatially and temporally. This information will be coupled with an understanding of the physical characteristics of the lake (i.e., mixing patterns) to explain the timing and distribution of algal blooms. A model will be developed to provide a platform for water and nutrient simulations to explore lake response to scenarios of climate and land use change, and the potential effects of local and regional management interventions. The research includes a community based participatory research program, which has involved key stakeholders in research definition and experimental design and ongoing discussion of research progress, and will include participation in management recommendations.

  2. Assimilation of satellite images into a sediment transport model of Lake Michigan.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stroud, J.; Lesht, B.; Beletsky, D.; Stein, M.; Univ. of Pennsylvania; NOAA; Univ. of Michigan; Univ. of Chicago

    2009-01-01

    In this paper we develop and examine several schemes for combining daily images obtained from the Sea-viewing Wide Field Spectrometer (SeaWiFS) with a two-dimensional sediment transport model of Lake Michigan. We consider two data assimilation methods, direct insertion and a kriging-based approach, and perform a forecasting study focused on a 2-month period in spring 1998 when a large storm caused substantial amounts of sediment resuspension and horizontal sediment transport in the lake. By beginning with the simplest possible forecast method and sequentially adding complexity we are able to assess the improvements offered by combining the satellite data with the numerical model. In our application, we find that data assimilation schemes that include both the data and the lake dynamics improve forecast root mean square error by 40% over purely model-based approaches and by 20% over purely data-based approaches.

  3. Microwave emissivity of freshwater ice, Part II: Modelling the Great Bear and Great Slave Lakes

    CERN Document Server

    Mills, Peter

    2012-01-01

    Lake ice within three Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer on EOS (AMSR-E) pixels over the Great Bear and Great Slave Lakes have been simulated with the Canadian Lake Ice Model (CLIMo). The resulting thicknesses and temperatures were fed to a radiative transfer-based ice emissivity model and compared to the satellite measurements at three frequencies---6.925 GHz, 10.65 GHz and 18.7 GHz. Excluding the melt season, the model was found to have strong predictive power, returning a correlation of 0.926 and a residual of 0.78 Kelvin at 18 GHz, vertical polarization. Discrepencies at melt season are thought to be caused by the presence of dirt in the snow cover which makes the microwave signature more like soil rather than ice. Except at 18 GHz, all results showed significant bias compared to measured values. Further work needs to be done to determine the source of this bias.

  4. Metal and proton toxicity to lake zooplankton: A chemical speciation based modelling approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The WHAM-FTOX model quantifies the combined toxic effects of protons and metal cations towards aquatic organisms through the toxicity function (FTOX), a linear combination of the products of organism-bound cation and a toxic potency coefficient for each cation. We describe the application of the model to predict an observable ecological field variable, species richness of pelagic lake crustacean zooplankton, studied with respect to either acidification or the impacts of metals from smelters. The fitted results give toxic potencies increasing in the order H+ TOX to relate combined toxic effects of protons and metal cations towards lake crustacean zooplankton. • The fitted results give toxic potencies increasing in the order H+ TOX model has been applied to field data for pelagic lake crustacean zooplankton. The fitted results give metal toxic potencies increasing in the order H+ < Al < Cu < Zn < Ni

  5. GIS-modeling of an ice-dammed lake in the Lake Onega depression ca 14500-12500 Yrs BP

    Science.gov (United States)

    Subetto, Dmitry; Zobkov, Mikhail; Potakhin, Maksim; Tarasov, Aleksey

    2016-04-01

    Palaeogeographical reconstructions of the Onego ice-dammed lake development ca 14500-125000 yrs BP were based on the GIS approach. The palaeo-water-level surfaces were interpolated using a point-kriging approach. 14500-14000 Yrs BP: An ice-dammed lake occupied the southern part of the Lake Onega depression. The level of this lake was at 130-120 m a.s.l. and was controlled by a threshold of the water divide between the River Oshta and River Oyat', with discharge southwestward into the Oyat' basin. The surface area of the ice-dammed lake was 3500 sq.km. 14000-13300 Yrs BP: When the ice melted away from the mouth of the River Svir, the lake level dropped to 85-80 m a.s.l. and runoff was directed into the Lake Ladoga - easternmost part of The Baltic Ice Lake at that time. 13300-12500 Yrs BP: As the glacier retreated from the Lake Onega depression, the ice-dammed lake was occupied it and reached the maximum sizes (the surface area was 33000 sq.km). The new threshold in the northern part was opened and runoff was directed into the White Sea basin. During the conference new digital paleogeographical maps of the Onego ice-dammed lake will be presented. The study has been financially supported by the Russian Science Foundation (#14-17-00766).

  6. A new biogeochemical model to simulate regional scale carbon emission from lakes, ponds and wetlands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bayer, Tina; Brakebusch, Matthias; Gustafsson, Erik; Beer, Christian

    2016-04-01

    Small aquatic systems are receiving increasing attention for their role in global carbon cycling. For instance, lakes and ponds in permafrost are net emitters of carbon to the atmosphere, and their capacity to process and emit carbon is significant on a landscape scale, with a global flux of 8-103 Tg methane per year which amounts to 5%-30% of all natural methane emissions (Bastviken et al 2011). However, due to the spatial and temporal highly localised character of freshwater methane emissions, fluxes remain poorly qualified and are difficult to upscale based on field data alone. While many models exist to model carbon cycling in individual lakes and ponds, we perceived a lack of models that can work on a larger scale, over a range of latitudes, and simulate regional carbon emission from a large number of lakes, ponds and wetlands. Therefore our objective was to develop a model that can simulate carbon dioxide and methane emission from freshwaters on a regional scale. Our resulting model provides an additional tool to assess current aquatic carbon emissions as well as project future responses to changes in climatic drivers. To this effect, we have combined an existing large-scale hydrological model (the Variable Infiltration Capacity Macroscale Hydrologic Model (VIC), Liang & Lettenmaier 1994), an aquatic biogeochemical model (BALTSEM, Savchuk et al., 2012; Gustafsson et al., 2014) and developed a new methane module for lakes. The resulting new process-based biogeochemical model is designed to model aquatic carbon emission on a regional scale, and to perform well in high-latitude environments. Our model includes carbon, oxygen and nutrient cycling in lake water and sediments, primary production and methanogenesis. Results of calibration and validation of the model in two catchments (Torne-Kalix in Northern Sweden and of a large arctic river catchment) will be presented.

  7. The impact of a lake on a local microclimate by using the COSMO NWP model

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Bartůňková, Kristýna; Sokol, Zbyněk; Fišák, Jaroslav

    Karlsruhe: Karlsruhe Institute of Technology ,, 2012. [Urban Environment Symposium /11./. 16.09.2012-19.09.2012, Karlsruhe] Keywords : Microclimate * lake * COSMO model * FLAKE model Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology http://hues.se/assets/11UES-Abstract-Book-Finalb.pdf

  8. Waterbird predation on fish in western Lake Erie: a bioenergetics model application

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madenjian, Charles P.; Gabrey, Steven W.

    1995-01-01

    To better understand the role of piscivorous waterbirds in the food web of western Lake Erie, we applied a bioenergetics model to determine their total fish consumption, The important nesting species included the Herring Gull (Larus argentatus), Ring-billed Gull (L. delawarensis), Double-crested Cormorant (Phalacrocorax auritus), Great Blue Heron (Ardea herodias), Black-crowned Night-Heron (Nycticorax nycticorax), and Great Egret (Casmerodius albus). The impact of migrant waterbirds, including the Red-breasted Merganser (Mergus serrator), on western Lake Erie fish biomass was also considered in the analysis. According to the modeling results, during the early 1990s, piscivorous waterbirds consumed 13,368 tonnes of fish from western Lake Erie each year. This tonnage was equivalent to 15.2% of the prey fish biomass needed to support the walleye (Stizostedion vitreum) population in western Lake Erie during a single growing season. The model application was useful in quantifying energy flow between birds and fish in a large lake ecosystem.

  9. Estimation of Water Quality Parameters in Lake Erie from MERIS Using Linear Mixed Effect Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kiana Zolfaghari

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Linear Mixed Effect (LME models are applied to the CoastColour atmospherically-corrected Medium Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MERIS reflectance, L2R full resolution product, to derive chlorophyll-a (chl-a concentration and Secchi disk depth (SDD in Lake Erie, which is considered as a Case II water (i.e., turbid and productive. A LME model considers the correlation that exists in the field measurements which have been performed repeatedly in space and time. In this study, models are developed based on the relation between the logarithmic scale of the water quality parameters and band ratios: B07:665 nm to B09:708.75 nm for log10chl-a and B06:620 nm to B04:510 nm for log10SDD. Cross validation is performed on the models. The results show good performance of the models, with Root Mean Square Errors (RMSE and Mean Bias Errors (MBE of 0.31 and 0.018 for log10chl-a, and 0.19 and 0.006 for log10SDD, respectively. The models are then applied to a time series of MERIS images acquired over Lake Erie from 2004–2012 to investigate the spatial and temporal variations of the water quality parameters. Produced maps reveal distinct monthly patterns for different regions of Lake Erie that are in agreement with known biogeochemical properties of the lake. The Detroit River and Maumee River carry sediments and nutrients to the shallow western basin. Hence, the shallow western basin of Lake Erie experiences the most intense algal blooms and the highest turbidity compared to the other sections of the lake. Maumee Bay, Sandusky Bay, Rondeau Bay and Long Point Bay are estimated to have prolonged intense algal bloom.

  10. Stable isotopes and Digital Elevation Models to study nutrient inputs in high-Arctic lakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calizza, Edoardo; Rossi, David; Costantini, Maria Letizia; Careddu, Giulio; Rossi, Loreto

    2016-04-01

    Ice cover, run-off from the watershed, aquatic and terrestrial primary productivity, guano deposition from birds are key factors controlling nutrient and organic matter inputs in high-Arctic lakes. All these factors are expected to be significantly affected by climate change. Quantifying these controls is a key baseline step to understand what combination of factors subtends the biological productivity in Arctic lakes and will drive their ecological response to environmental change. Basing on Digital Elevation Models, drainage maps, and C and N elemental content and stable isotope analysis in sediments, aquatic vegetation and a dominant macroinvertebrate species (Lepidurus arcticus Pallas 1973) belonging to Tvillingvatnet, Storvatnet and Kolhamna, three lakes located in North Spitsbergen (Svalbard), we propose an integrated approach for the analysis of (i) nutrient and organic matter inputs in lakes; (ii) the role of catchment hydro-geomorphology in determining inter-lake differences in the isotopic composition of sediments; (iii) effects of diverse nutrient inputs on the isotopic niche of Lepidurus arcticus. Given its high run-off and large catchment, organic deposits in Tvillingvatnet where dominated by terrestrial inputs, whereas inputs were mainly of aquatic origin in Storvatnet, a lowland lake with low potential run-off. In Kolhamna, organic deposits seem to be dominated by inputs from birds, which actually colonise the area. Isotopic signatures were similar between samples within each lake, representing precise tracers for studies on the effect of climate change on biogeochemical cycles in lakes. The isotopic niche of L. aricticus reflected differences in sediments between lakes, suggesting a bottom-up effect of hydro-geomorphology characterizing each lake on nutrients assimilated by this species. The presented approach proven to be an effective research pathway for the identification of factors subtending to nutrient and organic matter inputs and transfer

  11. High geothermal heat flux measured below the West Antarctic Ice Sheet.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fisher, Andrew T; Mankoff, Kenneth D; Tulaczyk, Slawek M; Tyler, Scott W; Foley, Neil

    2015-07-01

    The geothermal heat flux is a critical thermal boundary condition that influences the melting, flow, and mass balance of ice sheets, but measurements of this parameter are difficult to make in ice-covered regions. We report the first direct measurement of geothermal heat flux into the base of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS), below Subglacial Lake Whillans, determined from the thermal gradient and the thermal conductivity of sediment under the lake. The heat flux at this site is 285 ± 80 mW/m(2), significantly higher than the continental and regional averages estimated for this site using regional geophysical and glaciological models. Independent temperature measurements in the ice indicate an upward heat flux through the WAIS of 105 ± 13 mW/m(2). The difference between these heat flux values could contribute to basal melting and/or be advected from Subglacial Lake Whillans by flowing water. The high geothermal heat flux may help to explain why ice streams and subglacial lakes are so abundant and dynamic in this region. PMID:26601210

  12. HYDROLOGIC MODELLING OF KATSINA-ALA RIVER BASIN: AN EMERGING SCENARIO FROM LAKE NYOS THREAT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. O. Akinyede

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Understanding the hydrologic system surrounding crater lakes is of great importance for prevention of flooding damages, conservation of ecological environment, and assessment of socio-economic impact of dam failure on the civilians in the downstream regions. Lake Nyos is a crater lake formed by volcanic activities at the Oku volcanic field on the Cameroon Volcanic Line. It is a freshwater lake with a maximum depth of 200 meter. In 1986, a limnic eruption at the lake emitted 1.6 million tonnes of carbon dioxide from the bottom of saturated water into the air and suffocated up to 1,800 people and 3,500 livestock at nearby villages. The lake waters are held in place by a natural dam composed of loosely consolidated volcanic rock, which is now at the verge of collapse due to accelerated erosion. This study was carried out to determine the flood risks and vulnerability of population and infrastructure along Katsina-Ala drainage basins. The project integrated both satellite images and field datasets into a hydrologic model for Katsina-Ala River Basin and its vicinity including the Lake Nyos. ArcHydro was used to construct a hydrologic database as 'data models' and MIKE SHE was employed to conduct hydrologic simulations. Vulnerable infrastructures, population and socio-economic activities were identified to assist the Federal and State governments in disaster mitigation and management plans. The result of the project provides comprehensive knowledge of hydrologic system of Katsina-Ala drainage basin to mitigate potential future disasters from a potential dam failure and manage water resources against such disasters.

  13. Simulation of Lake Victoria Circulation Patterns Using the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sigurdsson, Sven; Tomasson, Tumi; Taabu-Munyaho, Anthony; Sitoki, Lewis; Stefansson, Gunnar

    2016-01-01

    Lake Victoria provides important ecosystem services including transport, water for domestic and industrial uses and fisheries to about 33 million inhabitants in three East African countries. The lake plays an important role in modulating regional climate. Its thermodynamics and hydrodynamics are also influenced by prevailing climatic and weather conditions on diel, seasonal and annual scales. However, information on water temperature and circulation in the lake is limited in space and time. We use a Regional Oceanographic Model System (ROMS) to simulate these processes from 1st January 2000 to 31st December 2014. The model is based on real bathymetry, river runoff and atmospheric forcing data using the bulk flux algorithm. Simulations show that the water column exhibits annual cycles of thermo-stratification (September–May) and mixing (June–August). Surface water currents take different patterns ranging from a lake-wide northward flow to gyres that vary in size and number. An under flow exists that leads to the formation of upwelling and downwelling regions. Current velocities are highest at the center of the lake and on the western inshore waters indicating enhanced water circulation in those areas. However, there is little exchange of water between the major gulfs (especially Nyanza) and the open lake, a factor that could be responsible for the different water quality reported in those regions. Findings of the present study enhance understanding of the physical processes (temperature and currents) that have an effect on diel, seasonal, and annual variations in stratification, vertical mixing, inshore—offshore exchanges and fluxes of nutrients that ultimately influence the biotic distribution and trophic structure. For instance information on areas/timing of upwelling and vertical mixing obtained from this study will help predict locations/seasons of high primary production and ultimately fisheries productivity in Lake Victoria. PMID:27030983

  14. Optimization and Modeling of Enzymatic Hydrolysis Process for Antarctic Krill%南极磷虾酶解工艺优化及模型建立

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    吕传萍; 李学英; 杨宪时; 郭全友

    2011-01-01

    In the present work,alcalase was identified as the most suitable enzyme for enzymatic hydrolysis of Antarctic krill among 7 commonly used enzymes based on simultaneous consideration of chloroacetic acid-nitrogen soluble index(TCA-NSI) and degree of hydrolysis(DH).In order to optimize the hydrolysis of Antarctic krill by alcalase,the effects of the hydrolysis conditions enzyme dosage,substrate concentration,pH,temperature and hydrolysis time on TCA-NSI and DH were studied by one-factor-at-a-time and orthogonal rotary composite design methods.Two regression models with TCA-NSI or DH as a function of each hydrolysis condition were established.The optimal process conditions for hydrolyzing Antarctic krill with alcalase were 50.7 ℃ hydrolysis temperature,pH 8.01,3010 U/g alcalase dosage and 239 min hydrolysis time.Under the optimal conditions,the TCA-NSI and DH were 73.02% and 42.33%,respectively.Meanwhile,peptides with an average length of 2.36 and a molecular mass of 277.9 were obtained.%以短肽得率(trichloroacetic acid-nitrogen soluble index,TCA-NSI)和水解度(degree of hydrolysis,DH)为指标,从7种常用酶中选出Alcalase酶作为酶解南极磷虾的最适酶。对Alcalase酶水解南极磷虾的酶用量、底物浓度、pH值、温度和时间5个因素进行单因素试验和正交旋转组合试验,建立TCA-NSI和DH与各因素的回归模型;在此基础上,结合实际生产确定Alcalase酶水解南极磷虾的最适工艺为温度50.7℃、pH8.01、加酶量3010U/g、时间239min,此时TCA-NSI值为73.02%,DH值为42.33%,短肽平均肽链长(peptide chain long,PCL)为2.36,平均相对分子质量为277.9。

  15. Antarctic ozone depletion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Antarctic ozone depletion is most severe during the southern hemisphere spring, when the local reduction in the column amount may be as much as 50 percent. The extent to which this ozone poor air contributes to the observed global ozone loss is a matter of debate, but there is some evidence that fragments of the 'ozone hole' can reach lower latitudes following its breakup in summer. Satellite data show the seasonal evolution of the ozone hole. A new dimension has been added to Antarctic ozone depletion with the advent of large volcanic eruptions such as that from Mount Pinatubo in 1991. (author). 5 refs., 1 fig

  16. New 3D bathymetry and sediment distribution in Lake Vostok: Implication for pre-glacial origin and numerical modeling of the internal processes within the lake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Filina, Irina Y.; Blankenship, Donald D.; Thoma, Malte; Lukin, Valery V.; Masolov, Valery N.; Sen, Mrinal K.

    2008-11-01

    A new distribution of water and unconsolidated sediments in subglacial Lake Vostok, East Antarctica was developed via inversion of airborne gravity data constrained by 60 seismic soundings. A model was developed for host rock with a density of 2550 kg/m 3 that was inferred from prior 2D modeling. Our 3D bathymetry model of Lake Vostok corresponds better with seismic data (RMS of 125 m) than two previous models based on the same gravity dataset. The good match in both water and sediment thicknesses between the gravity model and seismic measurements confirms two major facts about Lake Vostok: (1) the lake is hosted by sedimentary rocks, and (2) the bottom of the lake is covered with a layer of unconsolidated sediments that does not exceed 300 m in the southern basin and thickens almost to 400 m in the northern basin. Our new bathymetry model suggests much shallower water thicknesses (up to twice the previous estimates) in the middle and northern parts of the lake, while the water layer is thicker in the southern basin. Numerical modeling of the internal processes in the lake reveals the relevance of our new bathymetry model to the basal mass balance. A significant decrease in transport is observed in the shallower northern basin, as well as a decrease of 33% in the turbulent kinetic energy. However, only minor differences were observed in the distribution of the calculated freezing and melting zones compared to previous models. Estimates for the sedimentation rates for six possible mechanisms were made. Possible sedimentation mechanisms are: (1) fluvial and periglacial, i.e. those that are active prior to the establishment of a large subglacial lake; (2) deposition due to overlying ice sheet, including melting out of the ice, as well as bulldozering by the overriding ice; and (3) suspended sediments from subglacial water flow including those deposited by periodical subglacial outbursts. The estimates for these mechanisms show that unconsolidated sediments of the

  17. A biogeochemical model of Lake Pusiano (North Italy and its use in the predictability of phytoplankton blooms: first preliminary results

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alessandro OGGIONI

    2006-02-01

    Full Text Available This study reports the first preliminary results of the DYRESM-CAEDYM model application to a mid size sub-alpine lake (Lake Pusiano North Italy. The in-lake modelling is a part of a more general project called Pusiano Integrated Lake/Catchment project (PILE whose final goal is to understand the hydrological and trophic relationship between lake and catchment, supporting the restoration plan of the lake through field data analysis and numerical models. DYRESM is a 1D-3D hydrodynamics model for predicting the vertical profile of temperature, salinity and density. CAEDYM is multi-component ecological model, used here as a phytoplankton-zooplankton processes based model, which includes algorithms to simulate the nutrient cycles within the water column as well as the air-water gas exchanges and the water-sediments fluxes. The first results of the hydrodynamics simulations underline the capability of the model to accurately simulate the surface temperature seasonal trend and the thermal gradient whereas, during summer stratification, the model underestimates the bottom temperature of around 2 °C. The ecological model describes the epilimnetic reactive phosphorus (PO4 depletion (due to the phytoplankton uptake and the increase in PO4 concentrations in the deepest layers of the lake (due to the mineralization processes and the sediments release. In terms of phytoplankton dynamics the model accounts for the Planktothrix rubescens dominance during the whole season, whereas it seems to underestimate the peak in primary production related to both the simulated algal groups (P. rubescens and the rest of the other species aggregated in a single class. The future aims of the project are to complete the model parameterization and to connect the in-lake and the catchment modelling in order to gain an integrated view of the lake-catchment ecosystem as well as to develop a three dimensional model of the lake.

  18. Paleodynamics of large closed lakes as a standard for climate modeling data verification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kislov, Alexander

    2015-04-01

    Observed and reconstructed variations of large lakes can serve as a standard for assessing the quality of the model run off simulated by climate models. It provides the opportunity to assess whether models designed for future scenarios are skillful in 'out-of sample' climate change experiments. Based on general ideas about the laws of temporal dynamics relating to massive inertial objects, slow changes of the lake level under the semi-steady climate state can be represented as resulting from the accumulation of small anomalies in the water regime; it appears like a kind of "self-developing" system. To test this hypothesis, the water balance model of the Caspian Sea (CS) was used. Time scale for the CS is estimated as ~20 years. Model is interpreted as stochastic, and from this perspective, it is a Langevin equation that incorporates the action of precipitation and evaporation like random white noise, so that the whole can be thought of as an analogue of Brownian motion. Under these conditions, the CS palaeostages during the Holocene is represented by a system undergoing random walk. It should be emphasized that modeling results are interpreted from the probabilistic point of view, despite the fact that the model is deterministically based on the physical law of conservation of water mass. Despite the CS, another candidate to be as a potential evaluation tool for climate model simulations is the Black Sea (BS) until its merger with the Mediterranean. Therefore, although the image of the CS, BS and other lakes within the climate models is very simplified (or absent), changes in the levels could be used to assess the ability of climate models to reproduce the water budget over the catchment areas. For the CS or the BS, they are the large parts of the East European Plane and can be as indicators of climate model quality. However, the use of reconstructed data of other closed lakes is problematic. It is due to its water budget components cannot be simulated with needed

  19. Geochemical simulation of the formation of brine and salt minerals based on Pitzer model in Caka Salt Lake

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LIU Xingqi; CAI Keqin; YU Shengsong

    2004-01-01

    The geochemical simulation of the formation of brine and salt minerals based on Pitzer model was made in Caka Salt Lake. The evolution of the mixed surface-water and the mineral sequences were calculated and compared with the hydrochemical compositions of the brine and the salt minerals of the deposit in Caka Salt Lake. The results show that the formation temperature of the lake is between 0℃ and 5℃, which is well identical with other studies. The mixing of salt-karst water with the surface waters, neglected by the former researchers, is very important to the formation of the lake, indicating that the initial waters resulting in the formation of the lake are multi-source. It is the first time to use Pitzer model in China for making geochemical simulation of the formation and evolution of inland salt lake and satisfactory results have been achieved.

  20. Reinvestigating Three Paleo Lake Records in the Middle East using new Model Results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reuter, J. M.; Stott, L. D.; Buenning, N. H.; Yoshimura, K.

    2013-12-01

    Here we present a reinterpretation of three oxygen isotope records from three Middle Eastern Lakes (Zeribar, Van and Eski Acigo). These lake isotope records were interpreted previously to document changes in the precipitation-to-evaporation ratio (Eski and Van) and varying seasonality of precipitation over the lake (Zeribar). These differing interpretations are a consequence of inadequate constraints on atmospheric dynamics that influence isotopic variability in the water cycle of the Middle East. We present new isotope-enabled atmospheric model results that provide a more comprehensive view of each of the potential influences that affected these lake records. Currently the Middle East exhibits a highly seasonal precipitation cycle with the bulk of the rainfall occurring during the winter months. The yearly isotopic composition of rainfall exhibits a seasonal cycle as well with decreased values during the winter and higher isotopic values in both fall and spring. We conducted two model simulations with the Isotope-incorporated Global Spectral Model (IsoGSM): 1) with present-day conditions and 2) with mid-Holocene conditions. For the mid-Holocene simulations changes were made to the surface forcing, orbital parameters and greenhouse gas concentrations. These results show that the annual averaged oxygen isotopes in precipitation 6000 years ago were depleted on the order of 1 to 3‰ compared to present day. The model results are consistent with the published lake core records. However, the shift in isotopic composition of precipitation results from the combined influences of orbital changes, the changes in green house gases and surface forcings. We have evaluated the relative contribution of each of the forcings and present a re-interpretation of the Middle Eastern lake records.

  1. Simulating Microwave Scattering for Wetland Vegetation in Poyang Lake, Southeast China, Using a Coherent Scattering Model

    OpenAIRE

    Jingjuan Liao; Tao Xu; Guozhuang Shen

    2015-01-01

    We developed a polarimetric coherent electromagnetic scattering model for Poyang Lake wetland vegetation. Realistic canopy structures including curved leaves and the lodging situation of the vegetation were taken into account, and the situation at the ground surface was established using an Advanced Integral Equation Model combined with Oh’s 2002 model. This new model can reasonably describe the coherence effect caused by the phase differences of the electromagnetic fields scattered from diff...

  2. Bayesian inference of a lake water quality model by emulating its posterior density

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dietzel, A.; Reichert, P.

    2014-10-01

    We use a Gaussian stochastic process emulator to interpolate the posterior probability density of a computationally demanding application of the biogeochemical-ecological lake model BELAMO to accelerate statistical inference of deterministic model and error model parameters. The deterministic model consists of a mechanistic description of key processes influencing the mass balance of nutrients, dissolved oxygen, organic particles, and phytoplankton and zooplankton in the lake. This model is complemented by a Gaussian stochastic process to describe the remaining model bias and by Normal, independent observation errors. A small subsample of the Markov chain representing the posterior of the model parameters is propagated through the full model to get model predictions and uncertainty estimates. We expect this approximation to be more accurate at only slightly higher computational costs compared to using a Normal approximation to the posterior probability density and linear error propagation to the results as we did in an earlier paper. The performance of the two techniques is compared for a didactical example as well as for the lake model. As expected, for the didactical example, the use of the emulator led to posterior marginals of the model parameters that are closer to those calculated by Markov chain simulation using the full model than those based on the Normal approximation. For the lake model, the new technique proved applicable without an excessive increase in computational requirements, but we faced challenges in the choice of the design data set for emulator calibration. As the posterior is a scalar function of the parameters, the suggested technique is an alternative to the emulation of a potentially more complex, structured output of the simulation model that allows for the use of a less case-specific emulator. This is at the cost that still the full model has to be used for prediction (which can be done with a smaller, approximately independent subsample

  3. On fuzzy-relational simulation modelling of Prespa-Ohrid Lakes system for ecological studies (Macedonia)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Novel results on simulation modelling of Prespa-Ohrid natural complex system of lakes (in Macedonia) in terms of long-term water level dynamics, for which the observation data are uncertain and unreliable due to historical events, via fuzzy-relations models is presented. This complex system of natural lakes has been found to be rather endangered water resource system during last four decades due to changes caused by local urbanization and irrigation construction. In the course of the study, a kind of self-regulation property of Prespa-Ohrid Lakes due to their natural geophysical creation has been revealed first. In turn, this has enables derivation on an appropriate approach to the simulation modelling of long-term dynamics of water levels. These results have been obtained on the grounds of the observed self-regulation property and of system-theoretic approach to complex processes represented by fuzzy models. Through developed for the case of Prespa-Ohrid complex, it is believed to represent a more general methodology for simulation modelling of natural lakes and man-made reservoirs. (author)

  4. Polar stratospheric clouds in the 1998-2003 Antarctic vortex: Microphysical modeling and Polar Ozone and Aerosol Measurement (POAM) III observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benson, C. M.; Drdla, K.; Nedoluha, G. E.; Shettle, E. P.; Alfred, J.; Hoppel, K. W.

    2006-09-01

    The Integrated Microphysics and Aerosol Chemistry on Trajectories (IMPACT) model is used to study polar stratospheric cloud (PSC) formation and evolution in the Antarctic vortex. The model is applied to individual air parcel trajectories driven by UK Met Office (UKMO) wind and temperature fields. The IMPACT model calculates the parcel microphysics, including the formation and sedimentation of ice, nitric acid trihydrate (NAT), sulfuric acid tetrahydrate (SAT), and supercooled ternary solution (STS) aerosols. Model results are validated by comparison with data obtained by the Polar Ozone and Aerosol Measurement (POAM) III solar occultation instrument and are examined for 6 years of POAM data (1998-2003). Comparisons of POAM water vapor and aerosol extinction measurements to the model results help to constrain three microphysical parameters influencing the formation and growth of both type I and type II PSCs. Principally, measurements of aerosol extinction prove to be valuable in differentiating model runs; the relationship of aerosol extinction to temperature is determined by the various particle types as they form and grow. Comparison of IMPACT calculations of this relationship to POAM measurements suggests that the initial fraction of nuclei available for heterogeneous NAT freezing is approximately 0.02% of all aerosols. Constraints are also placed on the accommodation coefficient of ice and the NAT-ice lattice compatibility. However, these two parameters have similar effects on the extinction-temperature relationship, and thus a range of values are permissible for each.

  5. First evidence for a late LGM subglacial lake in Pine Island Bay, Antarctica

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuhn, Gerhard; Hillenbrand, Claus-Dieter; Kasten, Sabine; Smith, James A.; Nitsche, Frank O.; Frederichs, Thomas; Wiers, Steffen; Ehrmann, Werner; Klages, Johann P.; Mogollón, José M.

    2016-04-01

    Subglacial lakes are widespread beneath the Antarctic Ice Sheet and as a source for subglacial meltwater they are assumed to modulate ice stream velocity. Further, the evacuation of subglacial meltwater at the ice sheet margin influences ocean circulation and geochemical cycles. However, despite their importance,, subglacial lakes are one of the least explored environments on our planet. As a consequence, their importance for ice sheet dynamics and their ability to harbour life remain poorly characterised. We present the first direct evidence for a palaeo-subglacial lake on the Antarctic continental shelf, documenting that subglacial meltwater was stored during the last glacial period and evacuated during the subsequent deglaciation. A distinct sediment facies observed in a core recovered from a small bedrock basin in Pine Island Bay, Amundsen Sea, is indicative of deposition within a low-energy subglacial lake setting. Diffusive modelling demonstrates that low chloride concentrations in the pore water of this characteristic sediment facies can only be explained by original deposition in a freshwater setting. We also show that the location of the subglacial lake within a basin on the inner shelf is consistent with the predicted distribution of subglacial lakes based on bathymetric data. This finding will enable future modelling studies to investigate how the geometry and capacity of subglacial lake systems can influence ice dynamics when the substrate and profile of the ice sheet is known - especially in the highly sensitive area known as the "weak underbelly" of the WAIS. With the exception of a direct lake water access at Subglacial Lake Vostok, and some centimetres of sediment retrieval from Subglacial Lake Whillans, the subglacial hydrological system in Antarctica has hitherto mostly been explored using remote sensing and numerical models that suggest the number of potential lake sites to more than 12.000. Our study not only provides first empirical evidence

  6. Model Forecasts of Atrazine in Lake Michigan in Response to Various Sensitivity and Potential Management Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    For more than forty years, the herbicide atrazine has been used on corn crops in the Lake Michigan basin to control weeds. It is usually applied to farm fields in the spring before or after the corn crop emerges. A version of the WASP4 mass balance model, LM2-Atrazine, was used...

  7. Large ensemble modeling of the last deglacial retreat of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet: comparison of simple and advanced statistical techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pollard, David; Chang, Won; Haran, Murali; Applegate, Patrick; DeConto, Robert

    2016-05-01

    A 3-D hybrid ice-sheet model is applied to the last deglacial retreat of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet over the last ˜ 20 000 yr. A large ensemble of 625 model runs is used to calibrate the model to modern and geologic data, including reconstructed grounding lines, relative sea-level records, elevation-age data and uplift rates, with an aggregate score computed for each run that measures overall model-data misfit. Two types of statistical methods are used to analyze the large-ensemble results: simple averaging weighted by the aggregate score, and more advanced Bayesian techniques involving Gaussian process-based emulation and calibration, and Markov chain Monte Carlo. The analyses provide sea-level-rise envelopes with well-defined parametric uncertainty bounds, but the simple averaging method only provides robust results with full-factorial parameter sampling in the large ensemble. Results for best-fit parameter ranges and envelopes of equivalent sea-level rise with the simple averaging method agree well with the more advanced techniques. Best-fit parameter ranges confirm earlier values expected from prior model tuning, including large basal sliding coefficients on modern ocean beds.

  8. Modelling the dynamic air-water-sediment coupled fluxes and occurrence of polychlorinated biphenyls in a high altitude lake

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The BIODEP model in terms of atmosphere-lake interactions was developed. The model was applied to an oligotrophic, dimictic high altitude lake (Lake Redo, Pyrenees) for a range of polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) congeners. High altitude lakes, which receive their contaminant inputs uniquely from the atmosphere through long-range atmospheric transport, provide ideal controlled environments for the study of the interactions between atmospheric depositional and water column biogeochemical processes. The BIODEP model was able to predict dissolved water concentrations and PCB accumulation in the lake sediment within a factor of 2. This shows that the BIODEP model captures the essential processes driving the sink of POPs in high altitude lakes and that POP occurrence in the lake is driven by direct atmospheric inputs with limited influence from the watershed. An important seasonal variability in water column concentrations is predicted which should have important implications in sampling strategies. Furthermore, it is shown that diffusive air-water exchange dominated the PCB dynamics in the lake, especially for the less chlorinated biphenyls. - A dynamic flux model was able to accurately predict PCB levels

  9. Study of the nutrient and plankton dynamics in Lake Tanganyika using a reduced-gravity model

    OpenAIRE

    Naithani, Jaya; Darchambeau, François; Deleersnijder, Eric; Descy, Jean*-Pierre; Wolanski, Eric

    2007-01-01

    An eco-hydrodynamic (ECOH) model is proposed for Lake Tanganyika to study the plankton productivity. The hydrodynamic sub-model solves the non-linear, reduced-gravity equations in which wind is the dominant forcing. The ecological sub-model for the epilimnion comprises nutrients, primary production, phytoplankton biomass and zooplankton biomass. In the absence of significant terrestrial input of nutrients, the nutrient loss is compensated for by seasonal, wind-driven, turbulent entrainment of...

  10. Origin of the Turkwel delta trajectory (Lake Turkana, Kenya): insights from numerical modeling (DIONISOS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexis, Nutz; Pierre, Dietrich; Vafe, Soumahoro; Mathieu, Schuster; Jean-François, Ghienne

    2016-04-01

    Deltas simultaneously respond to modifications in parameters such as water discharge, sediment supply and base-level change. Those parameters are driven by a number of potential external forcing processes, nevertheless mainly corresponding to tectonism and climate. In this study, geomorphology and numerical modeling are coupled in order to provide analysis of the delta complex of the Turkwel River (Lake Turkana, Kenya). The Turkwel delta complex is 35 km long, forming one of the major deltaic systems that has fringed Lake Turkana during the Holocene. It developed during the lake level regression at the end of the holocene African Humid Period and correspond to a typical forced-regressive delta. Trajectory analysis was performed on three transects cross-cutting the deltaic complex. Transects consistently display five slightly descending (slope gradient: >0° to 0.4°) plateaus separated by four abrupt steps of higher slope gradients (1° to 3.8°). Conventional interpretations presume that the deltaic trajectory results from either (1) four abrupt accelerations in lake level fall during the continuous regression, (2) four abrupt declines in sediment supply and/or water discharge during a steady lake level fall or (3) a combination of both. We used numerical stratigraphic modeling (Dionisos) in order to test the aforementioned hypotheses as the origin of observed trajectories. We concluded that causal relationships between sediment supply, lake level change and progradation trajectory are not as straightforward as recurrently envisioned. We think that this contribution brings new lights on the relationships between deltaic architectures and controlling factors.

  11. Air-snow transfer of nitrate on the East Antarctic Plateau - Part 2: An isotopic model for the interpretation of deep ice-core records

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erbland, J.; Savarino, J.; Morin, S.; France, J. L.; Frey, M. M.; King, M. D.

    2015-10-01

    Unraveling the modern budget of reactive nitrogen on the Antarctic Plateau is critical for the interpretation of ice-core records of nitrate. This requires accounting for nitrate recycling processes occurring in near-surface snow and the overlying atmospheric boundary layer. Not only concentration measurements but also isotopic ratios of nitrogen and oxygen in nitrate provide constraints on the processes at play. However, due to the large number of intertwined chemical and physical phenomena involved, numerical modeling is required to test hypotheses in a quantitative manner. Here we introduce the model TRANSITS (TRansfer of Atmospheric Nitrate Stable Isotopes To the Snow), a novel conceptual, multi-layer and one-dimensional model representing the impact of processes operating on nitrate at the air-snow interface on the East Antarctic Plateau, in terms of concentrations (mass fraction) and nitrogen (δ15N) and oxygen isotopic composition (17O excess, Δ17O) in nitrate. At the air-snow interface at Dome C (DC; 75° 06' S, 123° 19' E), the model reproduces well the values of δ15N in atmospheric and surface snow (skin layer) nitrate as well as in the δ15N profile in DC snow, including the observed extraordinary high positive values (around +300 ‰) below 2 cm. The model also captures the observed variability in nitrate mass fraction in the snow. While oxygen data are qualitatively reproduced at the air-snow interface at DC and in East Antarctica, the simulated Δ17O values underestimate the observed Δ17O values by several per mill. This is explained by the simplifications made in the description of the atmospheric cycling and oxidation of NO2 as well as by our lack of understanding of the NOx chemistry at Dome C. The model reproduces well the sensitivity of δ15N, Δ17O and the apparent fractionation constants (15ϵapp, 17Eapp) to the snow accumulation rate. Building on this development, we propose a framework for the interpretation of nitrate records

  12. Comparing past accumulation rate reconstructions in East Antarctic ice cores using 10Be, water isotopes and CMIP5-PMIP3 models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Cauquoin

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Ice cores are exceptional archives which allow us to reconstruct a wealth of climatic parameters as well as past atmospheric composition over the last 800 kyr in Antarctica. Inferring the variations in past accumulation rate in polar regions is essential both for documenting past climate and for ice core chronology. On the East Antarctic Plateau, the accumulation rate is so small that annual layers cannot be identified and accumulation rate is mainly deduced from the water isotopic composition assuming constant temporal relationships between temperature, water isotopic composition and accumulation rate. Such an assumption leads to large uncertainties on the reconstructed past accumulation rate. Here, we use high-resolution beryllium-10 (10Be as an alternative tool for inferring past accumulation rate for the EPICA Dome C ice core, in East Antarctica. We present a high-resolution 10Be record covering a full climatic cycle over the period 269 to 355 ka from Marine Isotope Stage (MIS 9 to 10, including a period warmer than pre-industrial (MIS 9.3 optimum. After correcting 10Be for the estimated effect of the palaeomagnetic field, we deduce that the 10Be reconstruction is in reasonably good agreement with EDC3 values for the full cycle except for the period warmer than present. For the latter, the accumulation is up to 13% larger (4.46 cm ie yr−1 instead of 3.95. This result is in agreement with the studies suggesting an underestimation of the deuterium-based accumulation for the optimum of the Holocene (Parrenin et al. 2007a. Using the relationship between accumulation rate and surface temperature from the saturation vapour relationship, the 10Be-based accumulation rate reconstruction suggests that the temperature increase between the MIS 9.3 optimum and present day may be 2.4 K warmer than estimated by the water isotopes reconstruction. We compare these reconstructions to the available model results from CMIP5-PMIP3 for a glacial and an

  13. The East Antarctic Ice Sheet and the Gamburtsev Subglacial Mountains (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bell, R. E.; Studinger, M.; Ferraccioli, F.; Damaske, D.; Finn, C.; Braaten, D. A.; Fahnestock, M. A.; Jordan, T. A.; Corr, H.; Elieff, S.; Frearson, N.; Block, A. E.; Rose, K.

    2009-12-01

    Models of the onset of glaciation in Antarctica routinely document the early growth of the ice sheet on the summit of the Gamburtsev Subglacial Mountains in the center of the East Antarctic Craton. While ice sheet models replicate the formation of the East Antarctic ice sheet 35 million years ago, the age, evolution and structure of the Gamburtsev Mountains remain completely unresolved. During the International Polar Year scientists from seven nations have launched a major collaborative program (AGAP) to explore the Gamburtsev Subglacial Mountains buried by the East Antarctic ice sheet and bounded by numerous subglacial lakes. The AGAP umbrella is a multi-national, multi-disciplinary effort and includes aerogeophysics, passive seismology, traverse programs and will be complimented by future ice core and bedrock drilling. A major new airborne data set including gravity; magnetics; ice thickness; SAR images of the ice-bed interface; near-surface and deep internal layers; and ice surface elevation is providing insights into a more dynamic East Antarctica. More than 120,000 km of aerogeophysical data have been acquired from two remote field camps during the 2008/09 field season. AGAP effort was designed to address several fundamental questions including: 1) What role does topography play in the nucleation of continental ice sheets? 2) How do tectonic processes control the formation, distribution, and stability of subglacial lakes? The preliminary analysis of this major new data set indicated these 3000m high mountains are deeply dissected by a dendritic system. The northern margin of the mountain range terminates against the inland extent of the Lambert Graben. Evidence of the onset of glaciation is preserved as cirques and U shaped valleys along the axis of the uplifted massifs. The geomorphology reflects the interaction between the ice sheet and the Gamburtsev Mountains. Bright reflectors in the radar data in the deep valleys indicate the presence of water that has

  14. A mercury transport and fate model (LM2-mercury) for mass budget assessment of mercury cycling in Lake Michigan

    Science.gov (United States)

    LM2-Mercury, a mercury mass balance model, was developed to simulate and evaluate the transport, fate, and biogeochemical transformations of mercury in Lake Michigan. The model simulates total suspended solids (TSS), disolved organic carbon (DOC), and total, elemental, divalent, ...

  15. Modeling water and sediment contamination of Lake Pontchartrain following pump-out of Hurricane Katrina floodwater.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dortch, Mark S; Zakikhani, Mansour; Kim, Sung-Chan; Steevens, Jeffery A

    2008-05-01

    Levee failure and overtopping as a result of Hurricane Katrina caused major flooding of New Orleans, Louisiana. Floodwaters, which were contaminated with heavy metals, organic chemicals, and fecal coliform bacteria (FCB), were pumped into neighboring Lake Pontchartrain during dewatering. The impact of levee failure on water and benthic sediment concentrations in the lake was investigated by applying a numerical water quality model coupled to a three-dimensional, numerical hydrodynamic model. The model was used to compute water and benthic sediment concentrations throughout the lake for lead, arsenic, benzo(a)pyrene (BaP), and 1,1-dichloro-2,2-bis(p-chlorophenyl)ethylene (DDE), and water concentrations for FCB. Computed concentrations resulting from actual pumped discharges with levee failure and overtopping were compared to computed concentrations resulting from pumped discharges without levee failure or overtopping, and concentrations from both sets of conditions were compared to ecological water and sediment quality screening guideline values. The model indicated that incremental increases above pre-Katrina benthic sediment concentrations are about a factor of 10 greater with dewatering of the floodwaters than with dewatering of storm water without flooding. However, these increases for the metals are small relative to pre-Katrina concentrations. The results showed that the ecological screening-level sediment quality guideline values were exceeded for BaP and DDE in areas near the south shoreline of the lake as a result of floodwater pump-out, whereas, this was not the case for storm water removal without flooding. The model showed that lake water column concentrations should be about the same during both dewatering conditions regardless of whether there is flooding or not. PMID:17399885

  16. Multiphase modeling of nitrate photochemistry in the quasi-liquid layer (QLL: implications for NOx release from the Arctic and coastal Antarctic snowpack

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Saiz-Lopez

    2008-08-01

    Full Text Available We utilize a multiphase model, CON-AIR (Condensed Phase to Air Transfer Model, to show that the photochemistry of nitrate (NO3− in and on ice and snow surfaces, specifically the quasi-liquid layer (QLL, can account for NOx volume fluxes, concentrations, and [NO]/[NO2] (γ=[NO]/[NO2] measured just above the Arctic and coastal Antarctic snowpack. Maximum gas phase NOx volume fluxes, concentrations and γ simulated for spring and summer range from 5.0×104 to 6.4×105 molecules cm−3 s−1, 5.7×108 to 4.8×109 molecules cm−3, and ~0.8 to 2.2, respectively, which are comparable to gas phase NOx volume fluxes, concentrations and γ measured in the field. The model incorporates the appropriate actinic solar spectrum, thereby properly weighting the different rates of photolysis of NO3− and NO2−. This is important since the immediate precursor for NO, for example, NO2−, absorbs at wavelengths longer than nitrate itself. Finally, one-dimensional model simulations indicate that both gas phase boundary layer NO and NO2 exhibit a negative concentration gradient as a function of height although [NO]/[NO2] are approximately constant. This gradient is primarily attributed to gas phase reactions of NOx with halogens oxides (i.e. as BrO and IO, HOx, and hydrocarbons, such as CH3O2.

  17. Multiphase modeling of nitrate photochemistry in the quasi-liquid layer (QLL: implications for NOx release from the Arctic and coastal Antarctic snowpack

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Saiz-Lopez

    2008-03-01

    Full Text Available We utilize a multiphase model, CON-AIR (Condense Phase to Air Transfer Model, to show that the photochemistry of nitrate (NO3− in and on ice and snow surfaces, specifically the quasi-liquid layer (QLL, can account for NOx volume fluxes, concentrations, and [NO]/[NO2](γ=[NO]/[NO2] measured just above the Arctic and coastal Antarctic snowpack. Maximum gas phase NOx volume fluxes, concentrations and γ simulated for spring and summer range from 5.0×104 to 6.4×105 molecules cm−3 s−1, 5.7×108 to 4.8×109 molecules cm−3, and ~0.8 to 2.2, respectively, which are comparable to gas phase NOx volume fluxes, concentrations and γ measured in the field. The model incorporates the appropriate actinic solar spectrum, thereby properly weighting the different rates of photolysis of NO3− and NO2−. This is important since the immediate precursor for NO, for example, NO2−, absorbs at wavelengths longer than nitrate itself. Finally, one-dimensional model simulations indicate that both gas phase boundary layer NO and NO2 exhibit a negative concentration gradient as a function of height although [NO]/[NO2] are approximately constant. This gradient is primarily attributed to gas phase reactions of NOx with halogens oxides (i.e., as BrO and IO, HOx, and hydrocarbons, such as CH3O2.

  18. Building a Numerical Model of the Filtration Flow in the Żelazny Most Flotation Tailings Disposal Lake

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Strzelecki Tomasz

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents results of numerical computations of the filtration flow of liquid contaminated wastes through the Żelazny Most flotation tailings disposal lake. Unlike the preceding papers [5]-[7], it takes the geological structure of the subsoil into account. A three-dimensional numerical model of the lake was created for computing purposes. Data on some of the effective model parameters were acquired from laboratory tests of the material taken from the lake site. The other data were taken from the literature for media of similar properties. The results of the computations carried out using the model can be a basis for future numerical analyses aimed at determining the consolidation of the flotation tailings disposal lake and its subsoil, and the stability of the lake.

  19. Inter-comparison of time series models of lake levels predicted by several modeling strategies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khatibi, R.; Ghorbani, M. A.; Naghipour, L.; Jothiprakash, V.; Fathima, T. A.; Fazelifard, M. H.

    2014-04-01

    Five modeling strategies are employed to analyze water level time series of six lakes with different physical characteristics such as shape, size, altitude and range of variations. The models comprise chaos theory, Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) - treated for seasonality and hence SARIMA, Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), Gene Expression Programming (GEP) and Multiple Linear Regression (MLR). Each is formulated on a different premise with different underlying assumptions. Chaos theory is elaborated in a greater detail as it is customary to identify the existence of chaotic signals by a number of techniques (e.g. average mutual information and false nearest neighbors) and future values are predicted using the Nonlinear Local Prediction (NLP) technique. This paper takes a critical view of past inter-comparison studies seeking a superior performance, against which it is reported that (i) the performances of all five modeling strategies vary from good to poor, hampering the recommendation of a clear-cut predictive model; (ii) the performances of the datasets of two cases are consistently better with all five modeling strategies; (iii) in other cases, their performances are poor but the results can still be fit-for-purpose; (iv) the simultaneous good performances of NLP and SARIMA pull their underlying assumptions to different ends, which cannot be reconciled. A number of arguments are presented including the culture of pluralism, according to which the various modeling strategies facilitate an insight into the data from different vantages.

  20. Multibeam Sonar Mapping and Modeling of a Submerged Bryophyte Mat in Crater Lake, Oregon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dartnell, Peter; Collier, Robert; Buktenica, Mark; Jessup, Steven; Girdner, Scott; Triezenberg, Peter

    2008-01-01

    Traditionally, multibeam data have been used to map sea floor or lake floor morphology as well as the distribution of surficial facies in order to characterize the geologic component of benthic habitats. In addition to using multibeam data for geologic studies, we want to determine if these data can also be used directly to map the distribution of biota. Multibeam bathymetry and acoustic backscatter data collected in Crater Lake, Oregon, in 2000 are used to map the distribution of a deep-water bryophyte mat, which will be extremely useful for understanding the overall ecology of the lake. To map the bryophyte's distribution, depth range, acoustic backscatter intensity, and derived bathymetric index grids are used as inputs into a hierarchical decision-tree classification model. Observations of the bryophyte mat from over 23 line kilometers of lake-floor video collected in the summer of 2006 are used as controls for the model. The resulting map matches well with ground-truth information and shows that the bryophyte mat covers most of the platform surrounding Wizard Island as well as on outcrops around the caldera wall.

  1. A simple lumped model to convert air temperature into surface water temperature in lakes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Piccolroaz

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Water temperature in lakes is governed by a complex heat budget, where the estimation of the single fluxes requires the use of several hydro-meteorological variables that are not generally available. In order to address this issue, we developed Air2Water, a simple physically based model to relate the temperature of the lake superficial layer (epilimnion to air temperature only. The model has the form of an ordinary differential equation that accounts for the overall heat exchanges with the atmosphere and the deeper layer of the lake (hypolimnion by means of simplified relationships, which contain a few parameters (from four to eight in the different proposed formulations to be calibrated with the combined use of air and water temperature measurements. The calibration of the parameters in a given case study allows for one to estimate, in a synthetic way, the influence of the main processes controlling the lake thermal dynamics, and to recognize the atmospheric temperature as the main factor driving the evolution of the system. In fact, under certain hypotheses the air temperature variation implicitly contains proper information about the other major processes involved, and hence in our approach is considered as the only input variable of the model. In particular, the model is suitable to be applied over long timescales (from monthly to interannual, and can be easily used to predict the response of a lake to climate change, since projected air temperatures are usually available by large-scale global circulation models. In this paper, the model is applied to Lake Superior (USA–Canada considering a 27 yr record of measurements, among which 18 yr are used for calibration and the remaining 9 yr for model validation. The calibration of the model is obtained by using the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE methodology, which also allows for a sensitivity analysis of the parameters. The results show remarkable agreement with

  2. Lake retention of manufactured nanoparticles

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Koelmans, A.A.; Quik, J.T.K.; Velzeboer, I.

    2015-01-01

    For twenty-five world lakes and three engineered nanoparticles (ENP), lake retention was calculated using a uniformly mixed lake mass balance model. This follows similar approaches traditionally used in water quality management. Lakes were selected such that lake residence times, depths and areal hy

  3. Evaluation of the lake model FLake over a coastal lagoon during the THAUMEX field campaign

    OpenAIRE

    Le Moigne, Patrick; Legain, Dominique; Lagarde, Franck; Potes, Miguel; Tzanos, Diane; Moulin, Eric; Barrié, Joel; Salgado, Rui; Messiaen, Grégory; Fiandrino, Annie; Donier, Sylvie; Traullé, Olivier; João Costa, Maria

    2013-01-01

    The THAUMEX measurement campaign, carried out during the summer of 2011 in Thau, a coastal lagoon in southern France, focused on episodes of marine breezes. During the campaign, three intensive observation periods (IOPs) were conducted and a large amount of data were collected. Subsequently, standalone modelling using the FLake lake model was used, first to assess the surface temperature and the surface energy balance, and second to determine the energy budget of the water column at the measu...

  4. Simulations of the influence of lake area on local temperature with the COSMO NWP model

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Bartůňková, Kristýna; Sokol, Zbyněk; Pop, Lukáš

    147-148, 1-15 Oct (2014), s. 51-67. ISSN 0169-8095 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA13-34856S; GA TA ČR TA01020592 Institutional support: RVO:68378289 Keywords : ALAKE * COSMO NWP model * modeling * microclimate * lake Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 2.844, year: 2014 http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169809514002038

  5. Antarctic Tourism and Maritime Heritage

    OpenAIRE

    Basberg, Bjørn L.

    2010-01-01

    Maritime activities in the Antarctic region date back to the eighteenth century. They evolved from exploration and discoveries to commercial enterprises, especially sealing, whaling and fishing. Antarctic tourism is a much more recent phenomenon, developing mainly from the 1950s and 1960s. Today over 40,000 tourists visit the Antarctic annually, most of them on cruise ships. This essay reviews the historical development of this tourism. The focus is on how maritime heritage has been treated a...

  6. Modeling of long-path propagation characteristics of VLF radio waves as observed from Indian Antarctic station Maitri

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sasmal, Sudipta; Palit, Sourav; Chakrabarti, Sandip K.

    2015-10-01

    Propagation of very low frequency (VLF) radio signal through the Earth-ionosphere waveguide depends strongly on the plasma properties of the ionospheric D layer. Solar extreme ultraviolet radiation plays the central role in controlling physical and chemical properties of the lower ionospheric layers and hence determining the propagation characteristics of a VLF signal. The nature of interference among different propagating modes varies widely with the length of the propagation path. For a very long path, exposure of solar radiation and thus the degree of ionization vary by a large amount along the path. This influences the VLF signal profile by modulating the sky wave propagation. To understand the propagation characteristics over such a long path, we need a thorough investigation of the chemical reactions of the lower ionosphere which is lacking in the literature. Study of radio signal characteristics in the Antarctic region during summer period in the Southern Hemisphere gives us a unique opportunity to explore such a possibility. In addition, there is an extra feature in this path—the presence of solar radiation and hence the D region for the whole day during summer in at least some sections of the path. In this paper, we present long-distance propagation characteristics of VLF signals transmitted from VTX (18.2 kHz) and NWC (19.8 kHz) transmitters recorded at the Indian permanent station Maitri (latitude 70°45'S, longitude 114°40'E) in 2007-2008. A very stable diurnal variation of the signal has been obtained with no signature of nighttime fluctuation due the presence of 24 h of sunlight. Using ion production and recombination profiles by solar irradiance and incorporating D region ion chemistry processes, we calculate the electron density profile at different heights. Using this profile in the Long Wavelength Propagation Capability code, we are able to reproduce the amplitude of VLF signal.

  7. Antarctic science preserve polluted

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simarski, Lynn Teo

    Geophysicists are alarmed at the electromagnetic pollution of a research site in the Antarctic specifically set aside to study the ionosphere and magnetosphere. A private New Zealand communications company called Telecom recently constructed a satellite ground station within the boundaries of this Site of Special Scientific Interest (SSSI), protected since the mid-1970s. The placement of a commercial facility within this site sets an ominous precedent not only for the sanctity of other SSSIs, but also for Specially Protected Areas—preserves not even open to scientific research, such as certain penguin rookeries.The roughly rectangular, one-by-one-half mile site, located at Arrival Heights not far from McMurdo Station, is one of a number of areas protected under the Antarctic treaty for designated scientific activities. Many sites are set aside for geological or biological research, but this is the only one specifically for physical science.

  8. Hydrology, geomorphology, and dam-break modeling of the July 15, 1982, Lawn Lake Dam and Cascade Lake Dam failures, Larimer County, Colorado

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jarrett, R.D.; Costa, J.E.

    1984-01-01

    On July 15, 1982, Lawn Lake Dam, a 26-foot-high earthfill irrigation dam built in 1903 in Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado, failed, due to piping, releasing 674 acre-feet of water with a peak discharge of 18,000 cubic feet per second down the Roaring River. Three people were killed, and damages were estimated at $31 million. Cascade Lake Dam, downstream from Lawn Lake Dam, subsequently failed as a result of the flood, increasing the peak flow at this point from 7,210 cubic feet per second to 16,000 cubic feet per second. The flood wave took 3.28 hours to travel 12.5 miles to Lake Estes, where all the floodwater was stored. The channel of the Roaring River was scoured as much as 50 feet and widened 300 feet. An alluvial fan of 42.3 acres, containing 10 million cubic feet of material, was deposited at the mouth of the Roaring River, damming the Fall River and forming a 17-acre lake. Various methods were used to indirectly compute peak discharge, attenuation of flow, and flood traveltime. A version of the National Weather Service dam-break flood model was used to evaluate its performance on high-gradient streams, to provide supplemental hydrologic information, and to evaluate various scenarios of dam-break development. (USGS)

  9. Acidification in Three Lake District Tarns: Historical Iong term trends and modelled future behaviour under changing sulphate and nitrate deposition

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. G. Whitchead

    1997-01-01

    Full Text Available Three upland Lake District Tarns, Scoat, Greendale and Burnmoor, have been evaluated using MAGIC (Model of Acidification of Groundwater In Catchments to reconstruct past, present and future chemical behaviour. The modelled historical changes in acidity are compared with palaeoecological estimation of pH to demonstrate model validity. Chemistry as simulated for all anions and cations and two of the three lakes are shown to have undergone significant acidification. The effects of changing atmospheric pollution levels on lake chemistry is evaluated and 80-90% sulphur reduction levels are required to achieve zero alkalinity. The impacts of increased nitrogen deposition are assessed and are shown to further delay reversibility.

  10. Simulation of Tritium Transport and Groundwater Age in a Variably Saturated 3D Model, Lake Rotorua Catchment, New Zealand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daughney, C.; Toews, M. W.; Morgenstern, U.; Cornaton, F. J.; Jackson, B. M.

    2013-12-01

    Lake Rotorua is a focus of culture and tourism in New Zealand. The lake's water quality has declined since the 1970s, partly due to nutrient inputs that reach the lake via the groundwater system. Improved land use management within the catchment requires prediction of the spatial variations of groundwater transit time from land surface to the lake, and from this the prediction of current and future nutrient inflows to the lake. This study combines the two main methods currently available for determination of water age: numerical groundwater models and hydrological tracers. A steady-state 3D finite element model was constructed to simulate groundwater flow and transport of tritium and age at the catchment scale (555 km2). The model materials were defined using a 3D geologic model and included ignimbrites, rhyolites, alluvial and lake bottom sediments. The steady-state saturated groundwater flow model was calibrated using observed groundwater levels in boreholes (111 locations) and stream flow measurements from groundwater-fed streams and springs (61 locations). Hydraulic conductivities and Cauchy boundary conditions associated with the streams, springs and lake were parameterized. The transport parameters for the model were calibrated using 191 tritium samples from 105 locations (springs, streams and boreholes), with most locations having two sample dates. The transport model used steady-state flow, but simulated the transient transport and decay of tritium from rainfall recharge between 1945 and 2012. An additional 1D unsaturated sub-model was added to account for tritium decay from the ground surface to the water table. The sub-model is linked on top of the 3D model, and uses the water table depths and material properties from the 3D model. The adjustable calibration parameters for the transport model were porosity and van Genuchten parameters related to the unsaturated sub-models. Calibration of the flow model was achieved using a combination of automated least

  11. Simulation of surface energy fluxes and stratification of a small boreal lake by a set of one-dimensional models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Victor Stepanenko

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Five one-dimensional (1D lake models were run for the open water season in 2006 for Lake Valkea-Kotinen (Finland using on-lake measured meteorological forcing. The model results were validated using measurements of water temperature and of eddy covariance (EC fluxes. The surface temperature is satisfactorily simulated by all models showing slight overestimation (by 0.1–1.1°C. Both sensible and latent heat fluxes are positively biased in respect to EC data, consistent with earlier studies. However, correlation coefficients between EC-fluxes and those simulated are relatively high ranging from 0.55 to 0.74. The skill to simulate vertical temperature profiles by different models is assessed as well. It is found that the lake models underestimate the EC-derived surface drag coefficient, however providing realistic temperature profiles. It is argued that the real momentum flux from the atmosphere is larger than simulated, however it is split up between the wave development and the acceleration of lake currents. Adopting the simple parameterisation for momentum flux partitioning in one of the models showed that this mechanism can be significant. Finally, the effect of including the lake bathymetry data in k-ɛ models was the drastic overheating of water below the thermocline. This is likely to be caused by omitting the heat flux at the lake margins. Thus, the parameterisation of heat flux at the lake's margins should be included in the models; otherwise it is recommended to neglect bathymetry effects for such small water bodies as the Lake Valkea-Kotinen.

  12. Tectonic controls on magmatism in the Geysers-Clear Lake region: Evidence from new geophysical models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stanley, W.D.; Benz, H.M.; Walters, M.A.; Villasenor, A.; Rodriguez, B.D.

    1998-01-01

    In order to study magmatism and geothermal systems in The Geysers-Clear Lake region, we developed a detailed three-dimensional tomographic velocity model based on local earthquakes. This high-resolution model resolves the velocity structure of the crust in the region to depths of approximately 12 km. The most significant velocity contrasts in The Geysers-Clear Lake region occur in the steam production area, where high velocities are associated with a Quaternary granitic pluton, and in the Mount Hannah region, where low velocities occur in a 5-km-thick section of Mesozoic argillites. In addition, a more regional tomographic model was developed using traveltimes from earthquakes covering most of northern California. This regional model sampled the whole crust, but at a lower resolution than the local model. The regional model outlines low velocities at depths of 8-12 km in The Geysers-Clear Lake area, which extend eastward to the Coast Range thrust. These low velocities are inferred to be related to unmetamorphosed Mesozoic sedimentary rocks. In addition, the regional velocity model indicates high velocities in the lower crust beneath the Clear Lake volcanic field, which we interpret to be associated with mafic underplating. No large silicic magma chamber is noted in either the local or regional tomographic models. A three-dimensional gravity model also has been developed in the area of the tomographic imaging. Our gravity model demonstrates that all density contrasts can be accounted for in the upper 5-7 km of the crust. Two-dimensional magnetotelluric models of data from a regional, east-west profile indicate high resistivities associated with the granitic pluton in The Geysers production area and low resistivities in the low-velocity section of Mesozoic argillites near Mount Hannah. No indication of midcrustal magma bodies is present in the magnetotelluric data. On the basis of heat flow and geologic evidence, Holocene intrusive activity is thought to have

  13. Specific activity and concentration model applied to 137Cs movement in a eutrophic lake

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A linear systems-analysis model which simulates time-dependent dynamics of specific activity and concentration of radiocesium in lake ecosystems was applied to a shallow, eutrophic lake that had received a pulse input of 137Cs. Best estimates of transfer coefficients for abiotic compartments (sediment, interstitial water and lake water) and the macrophyte compartment which controlled the mass balance of cesium in water were determined by ''tuning'' our initial estimates of the transfer coefficients to observed data on 137Cs concentrations and contents of these compartments. In most cases, the optimized transfer coefficients for the abiotic compartments were not greatly different from our independently derived initial estimates, and the simulations for optimized coefficients were close to those based on initial estimates. The 137Cs concentrations in water as predicted by the optimized transfer coefficients were then used to calculate 137Cs kinetics in biota other than macrophytes. In general, model simulations were close to concentrations observed in the biota. The agreement between 137Cs concentrations and simulations in bottom invertebrates supported our assumption that bottom sediments are not a major source of Cs to the biota. Our specific activity and concentration model was compared to the radionuclide content model, the model used in terrestrial ecosystems. For biotic components of aquatic ecosystems, values of α/sub ij/, the transfer coefficients of our model, are easily estimated from turnover rates of radiocesium in individual organisms in the laboratory

  14. On applied state estimation and observation theory to simulation modelling of Prespa-Ohrid Lakes system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In the south-west of the Republic of Macedonia, on the cross boundary area with Republic of Albania and Republic of Greece, Prespa-Ohrid hydrologic region is located. To this region belong Prespa and Ohrid valleys, on the bottom of which the lakes of Prespa and Ohrid reside. Due to the fact that there is no surface hydrologic link and that they are separated by high mountain Galichica, both valleys and lakes constitute almost mutually autonomous hydrologic entities. This paper presents a study on the hydrologic cycle of Prespa Lake basin for the purpose of developing and identifying a simulation model for the long term dynamics of the water level. The actual simulation modelling technique makes use of available apriori knowledge and available recorder or observed data on phenomena involving the whole cycle from precipitation to evaporation and evapotranspiration in Prespa basin. Also, a modelling account for the functional impact due to strong interaction with Ohrid basin, is included. The resulting simulation model is a set of discrete-time state equation, derived on the grounds of the conceptual model of interconnected multiple tanks and of discrete-time observation (output) equation. The dynamic structure of Kalman filter for both linear and non-linear modelling case is derived and a discussion on applicability and further research is given. (author)

  15. Modeling aluminum-silicon chemistries and application to Australian acidic playa lakes as analogues for Mars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marion, G.M.; Crowley, J.K.; Thomson, B.J.; Kargel, J.S.; Bridges, N.T.; Hook, S.J.; Baldridge, A.; Brown, A.J.; Ribeiro da Luz, B.; de Souza, Filho C.R.

    2009-01-01

    Recent Mars missions have stimulated considerable thinking about the surficial geochemical evolution of Mars. Among the major relevant findings are the presence in Meridiani Planum sediments of the mineral jarosite (a ferric sulfate salt) and related minerals that require formation from an acid-salt brine and oxidizing environment. Similar mineralogies have been observed in acidic saline lake sediments in Western Australia (WA), and these lakes have been proposed as analogues for acidic sedimentary environments on Mars. The prior version of the equilibrium chemical thermodynamic FREZCHEM model lacked Al and Si chemistries that are needed to appropriately model acidic aqueous geochemistries on Earth and Mars. The objectives of this work were to (1) add Al and Si chemistries to the FREZCHEM model, (2) extend these chemistries to low temperatures (Aluminum chloride and sulfate mineral parameterizations were based on experimental data. Aluminum hydroxide and silicon mineral parameterizations were based on Gibbs free energy and enthalpy data. New aluminum and silicon parameterizations added 12 new aluminum/silicon minerals to this Na-K-Mg-Ca-Fe(II)-Fe(III)-Al-H-Cl-Br-SO4-NO3-OH-HCO3-CO3-CO2-O2-CH4-Si-H2O system that now contain 95 solid phases. There were similarities, differences, and uncertainties between Australian acidic, saline playa lakes and waters that likely led to the Burns formation salt accumulations on Mars. Both systems are similar in that they are dominated by (1) acidic, saline ground waters and sediments, (2) Ca and/or Mg sulfates, and (3) iron precipitates such as jarosite and hematite. Differences include: (1) the dominance of NaCl in many WA lakes, versus the dominance of Fe-Mg-Ca-SO4 in Meridiani Planum, (2) excessively low K+ concentrations in Meridiani Planum due to jarosite precipitation, (3) higher acid production in the presence of high iron concentrations in Meridiani Planum, and probably lower rates of acid neutralization and hence, higher

  16. Measurements of 36Cl in Antarctic meteorites and Antarctic ice using a Van de Graaff accelerator

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cosmic-ray produced 36Cl(tsub(1/2) = 3.0 X 105 years) has been measured in four Antarctic meteorites and one sample of Antarctic ice using a tandem Van de Graaff accelerator as an ultrasensitive mass spectrometer with the extremely low background level of 36Cl/Cl -16. Results from this ion counting technique (applied here to extraterrestrial materials for the first time) are used to support a two-stage irradiation model for the Yamato-7301and Allan Hills-76008 meteorites and to show a long terrestrial age (0.7 +- 0.1 m.y.) for Allan Hills-77002. Yamato-7304 has a terrestrial age of less than 0.1 m.y. The 36Cl content of the Antarctic ice sample from the Yamato Mountain area implies that the age of the ice cap at this site is less than one 36Cl half-life. (Auth.)

  17. Modelling cascading and erosional processes for glacial lake outburst floods in the Quillcay catchment, Huaraz, Cordillera Blanca, Peru

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baer, Patrick; Huggel, Christian; Frey, Holger; Chisolm, Rachel; McKinney, Daene; McArdell, Brian; Portocarrero, Cesar; Cochachin, Alejo

    2016-04-01

    Huaraz as the largest city in Cordillera Blanca has faced a major disaster in 1941, when an outburst flood from Lake Palcacocha killed several thousand people and caused widespread destruction. Recent studies on glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) modelling and early warning systems focussed on Lake Palcacocha which has regrown after the 1941 event, from a volume of half a million m3 in 1974 to a total volume of more than 17 million m3 today. However, little research has been conducted so far concerning the situation of other lakes in the Quillcay catchment, namely Lake Tullparaju (12 mill. m3) and Cuchillacocha (2.5 mill. m3), which both also pose a threat to the city of Huaraz. In this study, we modelled the cascading processes at Lake Tullparaju and Lake Cuchillacocha including rock/ice avalanches, flood wave propagation in the lake and the resulting outburst flood and debris flows. We used the 2D model RAMMS to simulate ice avalanches. Model output was used as input for analytical 2D and 3D calculations of impact waves in the lakes that allowed us to estimate dam overtopping wave height. Since the dimension of the hanging glaciers above all three lakes is comparable, the scenarios in this study have been defined similar to the previous study at Lake Palcacocha. The flow propagation model included sediment entrainment in the steeper parts of the catchment, adding up to 50% to the initial flow volume. The results for total travel time as well as for inundated areas and flow depth and velocity in the city of Huaraz are comparable to the previous studies at Lake Palcacocha. This underlines the importance of considering also these lakes within an integral hazard analysis for the city of Huaraz. A main challenge for modelling GLOFs in the Quillcay catchment using RAMMS is the long runout distance of over 22 km combined with the very low slope gradient of the river. Further studies could improve the process understanding and could focus on more detailed investigations

  18. Spatial heterogeneity in geothermally-influenced lakes derived from atmospherically corrected Landsat thermal imagery and three-dimensional hydrodynamic modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allan, Mathew G.; Hamilton, David P.; Trolle, Dennis; Muraoka, Kohji; McBride, Christopher

    2016-08-01

    Atmospheric correction of Landsat 7 thermal data was carried out for the purpose of retrieval of lake skin water temperature in Rotorua lakes, and Lake Taupo, North Island, New Zealand. The effect of the atmosphere was modelled using four sources of atmospheric profile data as input to the MODerate resolution atmospheric TRANsmission (MODTRAN) radiative transfer model. The retrieved skin water temperatures were validated using a high-frequency temperature sensor deployed from a monitoring buoy at the water surface of Lake Rotorua. The most accurate atmospheric correction method was with Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) atmospheric profile data (root-mean-square-error, RMSE, 0.48 K), followed by radiosonde (0.52 K), Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) Level 3 (0.54 K), and the NASA atmospheric correction parameter calculator (0.94 K). Retrieved water temperature was used for assessing spatial heterogeneity and accuracy of surface water temperature simulated with a three-dimensional (3-D) hydrodynamic model of Lake Rotoehu, located approximately 20 km east of Lake Rotorua. This comparison indicated that the model was suitable for reproducing the dominant horizontal variations in surface water temperature in the lake. This study demonstrated the potential of accurate satellite-based thermal monitoring to validate temperature outputs from 3-D hydrodynamic model simulations. It also provided atmospheric correction options for local and global applications of Landsat thermal data.

  19. Modelling the Loktak Lake Basin to Assess Human Impact on Water Resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eliza, K.

    2015-12-01

    Loktak Lake is an internationally important, Ramsar designated, fresh water wetland system in the state of Manipur, India. The lake was also listed under Montreux Record on account of the ecological modifications that the lake system has witnessed over time. A characteristic feature of this lake is the extensive occurrence of coalesced, naturally or otherwise, vegetative masses floating over it. A contiguous 40 km2 area of Phumdis, as these vegetative masses are locally referred to, also constitutes the only natural home of the endemic and endangered species of Manipur's brow-antlered deer popularly known as Sangai. Appropriately notified as Keibul Lamjao National Park by Government of India, this natural feature is known to be the world's largest floating park. Water quality and sediment deposition on account of soil erosion in its catchments are some of the emerging concerns along with a reported enhanced frequency and duration of flooding of the shore areas, reduced fish catch within a visibly deteriorated overall natural ecosystem. Disturbances of watershed processes, command area management practices, ineffective as indeed largely absent, waste management practices and management interventions linked to the Loktak Hydroelectric Project are often cited as the principal triggers that are seen to be responsible for the damage. An effective management protocol for the Lake requires a rigorous understanding of its hydrobiology and eco-hydrodynamics. The present study is carried out to establish such a characterization of the various rivers systems draining directly into the Lake using MIKE SHE, MIKE 11 HD and MIKE 11 ECO Lab modelling platforms. Water quality modelling was limited to dissolved oxygen (DO), biological oxygen demand (BOD) and water temperature. Model calibration was done using the available measured water quality data. The derived results were then investigated for causal correlation with anthropogenic influences to assess human impact on water

  20. Retreat of thaw lake margins in a two-dimensional coupled model of heat transfer and mass wasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plug, L. J.; West, J. J.

    2006-12-01

    Thaw lakes --widespread thermokarst features in lowland, ice-rich permafrost of Alaska, Canada and Siberia-- expand by interactions between thawing and collapse of ice-rich permafrost, and redistribution of sediment within the basin, modulated by air and water temperatures. To investigate dependance of thaw lake expansion on climate change over 10- 103y, we introduce a two-dimensional, cross sectional numerical model of thaw lake expansion which combines heat conduction and thaw-subsidence with diffusive and advective mass wasting. Under conditions for the Seward Peninsula, AK, subaerial and subaqueous margins of modeled lakes are inclined 20° and 3° respectively, with 0.26±0.01 m/yr bank retreat after 500 years (range is 1-sigma for 10 model realizations), compared to a natural lake from this region with margins inclined ~23° and 3° and 0.4 m/yr bank retreat (measured using differential GPS and sonar). Lakes modeled under conditions in the northern Yukon, have maximum depth 2.1 m, taliks thickness 8.7 m, margins inclined 8°, and 0.05 m/yr bank retreat after 500 years, similar to natural lakes in this region with depths 1.6--4 m, and subaqueous margins inclined <10°. Under a warmer-than- present climate (modern MAAT+3°C), rates of expansion increase to 0.44 m/yr in the Seward model and to 0.07 m/yr in the Yukon model, consistent with observations of increased thermokarst activity in northern Canada and Alaska during Holocene and Pleistocene warm periods, and thermokarst nearly halts in full glacial climates. The model reproduces morphology and dynamics similar to natural thaw lakes, indicating usefulness in investigating thaw lake sensitivity to anthropogenic climate warming. Supported by the Natural Science and Engineering Research Council

  1. A coupled regolith-lake development model applied to the Forsmark site

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brydsten, Lars; Stroemgren, Maarten (Umeaa Univ., Umeaa (Sweden))

    2010-11-15

    The Quaternary geology at the Forsmark site has been characterized using both a map of Quaternary deposits and a regolith depth model (RDM) that show the stratigraphy and thickness of different deposits. Regolith refers to all the unconsolidated deposits overlying the bedrock. The surface geology and regolith depth are important parameters for hydrogeological and geochemical modelling and for the overall understanding of the area. The safety assessment analysis should focus on processes involved during a period of 120,000 years, which includes a full glacial cycle; however, the investigations within the site description model do not cover the temporal change of the regolith, a limitation that does not fulfil the requirements for the safety assessment. To this end, this study constructs a model that can predict the surface geology, stratigraphy, and thickness of different strata at any time during a glacial cycle and applies this model to the Forsmark site. The Weichselian ice sheet covered the study area until around 9500 BC. The deglaciation revealed a marine landscape with bedrock, till and glacial clay. For the safety assessment, the most important unconsolidated strata are clay or silt: these small grains can bind nuclear elements more easily than coarser sediment particles. Thick layers of clay can be found where post-glacial clay settled on top of glacial clay, especially where the middle-aged erosion of postglacial clay is missing and where there is an uninterrupted sequence of accumulation of finegrained particles. Such areas could be found in deep marine basins that later become lakes when raised into a supra-marine position. The coupled regolith-lake development model (RLDM) predicts the course of events described above during an interglacial, especially the dynamics of the clay and silt particles. The RLDM is divided into two modules: a marine module that predicts the sediment dynamics caused by wind waves and a lake module that predicts the lake infill

  2. A coupled regolith-lake development model applied to the Forsmark site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Quaternary geology at the Forsmark site has been characterized using both a map of Quaternary deposits and a regolith depth model (RDM) that show the stratigraphy and thickness of different deposits. Regolith refers to all the unconsolidated deposits overlying the bedrock. The surface geology and regolith depth are important parameters for hydrogeological and geochemical modelling and for the overall understanding of the area. The safety assessment analysis should focus on processes involved during a period of 120,000 years, which includes a full glacial cycle; however, the investigations within the site description model do not cover the temporal change of the regolith, a limitation that does not fulfil the requirements for the safety assessment. To this end, this study constructs a model that can predict the surface geology, stratigraphy, and thickness of different strata at any time during a glacial cycle and applies this model to the Forsmark site. The Weichselian ice sheet covered the study area until around 9500 BC. The deglaciation revealed a marine landscape with bedrock, till and glacial clay. For the safety assessment, the most important unconsolidated strata are clay or silt: these small grains can bind nuclear elements more easily than coarser sediment particles. Thick layers of clay can be found where post-glacial clay settled on top of glacial clay, especially where the middle-aged erosion of postglacial clay is missing and where there is an uninterrupted sequence of accumulation of finegrained particles. Such areas could be found in deep marine basins that later become lakes when raised into a supra-marine position. The coupled regolith-lake development model (RLDM) predicts the course of events described above during an interglacial, especially the dynamics of the clay and silt particles. The RLDM is divided into two modules: a marine module that predicts the sediment dynamics caused by wind waves and a lake module that predicts the lake infill

  3. Estimating Inflows to Lake Okeechobee Using Climate Indices: A Machine Learning Modeling Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalra, A.; Ahmad, S.

    2008-12-01

    The operation of regional water management systems that include lakes and storage reservoirs for flood control and water supply can be significantly improved by using climate indices. This research is focused on forecasting Lag 1 annual inflow to Lake Okeechobee, located in South Florida, using annual oceanic- atmospheric indices of Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), and El Nino-Southern Oscillations (ENSO). Support Vector Machine (SVM) and Least Square Support Vector Machine (LSSVM), belonging to the class of data driven models, are developed to forecast annual lake inflow using annual oceanic-atmospheric indices data from 1914 to 2003. The models were trained with 80 years of data and tested for 10 years of data. Based on Correlation Coefficient, Root Means Square Error, and Mean Absolute Error model predictions were in good agreement with measured inflow volumes. Sensitivity analysis, performed to evaluate the effect of individual and coupled oscillations, revealed a strong signal for AMO and ENSO indices compared to PDO and NAO indices for one year lead-time inflow forecast. Inflow predictions from the SVM models were better when compared with the predictions obtained from feed forward back propagation Artificial Neural Network (ANN) models.

  4. A simple method to model the reduced environment of lake bottom sapropel formation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaskova, Olga L.; Strakhovenko, Vera D.; Ermolaeva, Nadezhda I.; Zarubina, Eugene Yu.; Ovdina, Ekaterina A.

    2016-07-01

    The Kambala and Barchin brackish lakes (Baraba steppe, southern West Siberia) contain an organic-rich sapropel layer that was formed in oxygen-depleted waters. We measured the bulk sediment elemental composition, the water chemistry and determined the mineralogical composition and predominant biota species (Diatoms and Cyanobacteria in phytoplankton community respectively) in the lakes. The result indicates that the first lake has a siliceous type of sapropel and the second a carbonaceous one. A computer thermodynamic model was developed for chemical interaction in water-bottom sediment systems of the Kambala and Barchin Lakes. The surface sodium bicarbonate waters are supersaturated with respect to calcite, magnesite (or low Mg-calcite), quartz and chlorite with minor strontianite, apatite and goethite (pH 8.9-9.3, Eh 0.3 V). Nevertheless, it is shown that during sapropel deposition, deep silt waters should be anoxic (Ehimpact and abiotic reduction. Thermodynamic calculation has shown that silt water is not necessarily euxinic (anoxic and sulfidic). Depending on Eh, sulfate sulfur can dominate in solution, causing the formation of gypsum together with pyrite. An attempt was made to find a reason for solution supersaturation with respect to Ca and Mg ions due to their complexation with humic acids.

  5. Lake isotope records of the 8200-year cooling event in western Ireland: Comparison with model simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holmes, Jonathan A.; Tindall, Julia; Roberts, Neil; Marshall, William; Marshall, Jim D.; Bingham, Ann; Feeser, Ingo; O'Connell, Michael; Atkinson, Tim; Jourdan, Anne-Lise; March, Anna; Fisher, Elizabeth H.

    2016-01-01

    The early Holocene cooling, which occurred around 8200 calendar years before present, was a prominent abrupt event around the north Atlantic region. Here, we investigate the timing, duration, magnitude and regional coherence of the event as expressed in carbonate oxygen-isotope records from three lakes on northwest Europe's Atlantic margin in western Ireland, namely Loch Avolla, Loch Gealáin and Lough Corrib. An abrupt negative oxygen-isotope excursion lasted about 200 years. Comparison of records from three sites suggests that the excursion was primarily the result of a reduction of the oxygen-isotope values of precipitation, which was likely caused by lowered air temperatures, possibly coupled with a change in atmospheric circulation. Comparison of records from two of the lakes (Loch Avolla and Loch Gealáin), which have differing bathymetries, further suggests a reduction in evaporative loss of lake water during the cooling episode. Comparison of climate model experiments with lake-sediment isotope data indicates that effective moisture may have increased along this part of the northeast Atlantic seaboard during the 8200-year climatic event, as lower evaporation compensated for reduced precipitation.

  6. A simple method to model the reduced environment of lake bottom sapropel formation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaskova, Olga L.; Strakhovenko, Vera D.; Ermolaeva, Nadezhda I.; Zarubina, Eugene Yu.; Ovdina, Ekaterina A.

    2016-07-01

    The Kambala and Barchin brackish lakes (Baraba steppe, southern West Siberia) contain an organic-rich sapropel layer that was formed in oxygen-depleted waters. We measured the bulk sediment elemental composition, the water chemistry and determined the mineralogical composition and predominant biota species (Diatoms and Cyanobacteria in phytoplankton community respectively) in the lakes. The result indicates that the first lake has a siliceous type of sapropel and the second a carbonaceous one. A computer thermodynamic model was developed for chemical interaction in water-bottom sediment systems of the Kambala and Barchin Lakes. The surface sodium bicarbonate waters are supersaturated with respect to calcite, magnesite (or low Mg-calcite), quartz and chlorite with minor strontianite, apatite and goethite (pH 8.9-9.3, Eh 0.3 V). Nevertheless, it is shown that during sapropel deposition, deep silt waters should be anoxic (Ehsulfate sulfur can dominate in solution, causing the formation of gypsum together with pyrite. An attempt was made to find a reason for solution supersaturation with respect to Ca and Mg ions due to their complexation with humic acids.

  7. Dramatic water-level fluctuations in lakes under intense human impact: modelling the effect of vegetation, climate and hydrogeology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vainu, M.

    2012-04-01

    Lakes form a highly important ecosystem in the glacial terrain of northern Europe and America, but their hydrology remains understudied. When the water-level of a lake drops significantly and rises again in a time span of half a century and the widespread explanation of the fluctuations seems insufficient, then it raises a question: how do different anthropogenic and natural processes actually affect the formation of a lakes' water body. The abovementioned scenario applies to three small closed-basin Estonian lakes (L. Ahnejärv, L. Kuradijärv and L. Martiska) analysed in the current study. These lakes suffered a major water-level drop (up to 3.8 m) between 1946 and 1987 and a major rise between 1987 and 2010, from 1 m (L. Ahnejärv) to 2.5 m (L. Kuradijärv). Decreasing and increasing groundwater abstraction near the lakes has been widely considered to be the only reason for the fluctuations. It is true that the most severe drop in the lake levels did occur after 1972 when groundwater abstraction for drinking water started in the vicinity of the lakes. However, the lake levels started to fall before the groundwater abstraction began and for the time being the lake levels have risen to a higher level than in the 1970s when the quantity of annually abstracted groundwater was similar to nowadays. Therefore the processes affecting the formation of the lakes' water body prove to be more complex than purely the hydrogeological change caused by groundwater abstraction. A new deterministic water balance model (where the evaporation from the lake surface was calculated by Penman equation and the catchment runoff by Thornthwaite-Mather soil-moisture model), compiled for the study, coupled with LiDAR-based GIS-modelling of the catchments was used to identify the different factors influencing the lakes' water level. The modelling results reveal that the moderate drop in lake water levels before the beginning of groundwater abstraction was probably caused by the growth of a

  8. A dynamic-bioenergetics model to assess depth selection and reproductive growth by lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plumb, John M; Blanchfield, Paul J; Abrahams, Mark V

    2014-06-01

    We coupled dynamic optimization and bioenergetics models to assess the assumption that lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) depth distribution is structured by temperature, food availability, and predation risk to maximize reproductive mass by autumn spawning. Because the model uses empirical daily thermal-depth profiles recorded in a small boreal shield lake (lake 373 at the Experimental Lakes Area, northwestern Ontario) during 2 years of contrasting thermal stratification patterns, we also assessed how climate-mediated changes in lakes may affect the vertical distribution, growth, and fitness of lake trout, a cold-water top predator. The depths of acoustic-tagged lake trout were recorded concurrently with thermal-depth profiles and were compared to model output, enabling an assessment of model performance in relation to the observed fish behavior and contrasting thermal conditions. The depths and temperatures occupied by simulated fish most closely resembled those of the tagged fish when risk of predation was included in the model, indicating the model may incorporate the most important underlying mechanisms that determine lake trout depth. Annual differences suggest less use of shallow (warm), productive habitats, resulting in markedly less reproductive mass, during the year with the warm stratification pattern. Mass for reproduction may be lower in warmer conditions because of reduced reproductive investment, yet survival may be inadvertently higher because risky surface waters may be avoided more often in warmer, shallower, and metabolically costly conditions. At a minimum our study suggests that lake trout reproductive mass and fitness may be expected to change under the anticipated longer and warmer stratification patterns. PMID:24682254

  9. Ozone distributions over southern Lake Michigan: comparisons between ferry-based observations, shoreline-based DOAS observations and model forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cleary, P. A.; Fuhrman, N.; Schulz, L.; Schafer, J.; Fillingham, J.; Bootsma, H.; McQueen, J.; Tang, Y.; Langel, T.; McKeen, S.; Williams, E. J.; Brown, S. S.

    2015-05-01

    Air quality forecast models typically predict large summertime ozone abundances over water relative to land in the Great Lakes region. While each state bordering Lake Michigan has dedicated monitoring systems, offshore measurements have been sparse, mainly executed through specific short-term campaigns. This study examines ozone abundances over Lake Michigan as measured on the Lake Express ferry, by shoreline differential optical absorption spectroscopy (DOAS) observations in southeastern Wisconsin and as predicted by the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model. From 2008 to 2009 measurements of O3, SO2, NO2 and formaldehyde were made in the summertime by DOAS at a shoreline site in Kenosha, WI. From 2008 to 2010 measurements of ambient ozone were conducted on the Lake Express, a high-speed ferry that travels between Milwaukee, WI, and Muskegon, MI, up to six times daily from spring to fall. Ferry ozone observations over Lake Michigan were an average of 3.8 ppb higher than those measured at shoreline in Kenosha, with little dependence on position of the ferry or temperature and with greatest differences during evening and night. Concurrent 1-48 h forecasts from the CMAQ model in the upper Midwestern region surrounding Lake Michigan were compared to ferry ozone measurements, shoreline DOAS measurements and Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) station measurements. The bias of the model O3 forecast was computed and evaluated with respect to ferry-based measurements. Trends in the bias with respect to location and time of day were explored showing non-uniformity in model bias over the lake. Model ozone bias was consistently high over the lake in comparison to land-based measurements, with highest biases for 25-48 h after initialization.

  10. A simplified physically-based model to calculate surface water temperature of lakes from air temperature in climate change scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piccolroaz, S.; Toffolon, M.

    2012-12-01

    Modifications of water temperature are crucial for the ecology of lakes, but long-term analyses are not usually able to provide reliable estimations. This is particularly true for climate change studies based on Global Circulation Models, whose mesh size is normally too coarse for explicitly including even some of the biggest lakes on Earth. On the other hand, modeled predictions of air temperature changes are more reliable, and long-term, high-resolution air temperature observational datasets are more available than water temperature measurements. For these reasons, air temperature series are often used to obtain some information about the surface temperature of water bodies. In order to do that, it is common to exploit regression models, but they are questionable especially when it is necessary to extrapolate current trends beyond maximum (or minimum) measured temperatures. Moreover, water temperature is influenced by a variety of processes of heat exchange across the lake surface and by the thermal inertia of the water mass, which also causes an annual hysteresis cycle between air and water temperatures that is hard to consider in regressions. In this work we propose a simplified, physically-based model for the estimation of the epilimnetic temperature in lakes. Starting from the zero-dimensional heat budget, we derive a simplified first-order differential equation for water temperature, primarily forced by a seasonally varying external term (mainly related to solar radiation) and an exchange term explicitly depending on the difference between air and water temperatures. Assuming annual sinusoidal cycles of the main heat flux components at the atmosphere-lake interface, eight parameters (some of them can be disregarded, though) are identified, which can be calibrated if two temporal series of air and water temperature are available. We note that such a calibration is supported by the physical interpretation of the parameters, which provide good initial

  11. Estimating mercury concentrations and fluxes in the water column and sediment of Lake Ontario with HERMES model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ethier, Adrienne L M; Atkinson, Joseph F; Depinto, Joseph V; Lean, David R S

    2012-02-01

    The HERMES model-predicted Hg concentrations and fluxes in Lake Ontario were based on twelve lake and drainage basin variables (i.e., water temperature, precipitation rate, air Hg, surface area, mean depth, water volume, water inflow rate, inflow water Hg, inflow and lake suspended particulate matter, air-water and water-air mass transfer coefficients, and sedimentation rate). The HERMES model-predicted Hg water and surface sediment concentrations were found to be significantly correlated (±20%) with measured values (r(2) = 0.94, p < 0.0001, n = 13) and mechanistic model predictions (LOTOX2-Hg, r(2) = 0.95, p < 0.0001, n = 10). The predictive capacity of HERMES was previously tested on smaller (≤1 km(2)) lakes in Nova Scotia and Ontario, Canada (i.e., water and sediment Hg concentrations were ±15% of measured data). Results suggest that HERMES could be applicable to a broad range of lake sizes. Uncertainty analyses on HERMES model input variables indicated a larger atmospheric Hg contribution for Lake Ontario when compared to previous predictions for smaller lakes. PMID:21726924

  12. Interrelationships among hydrologic-budget components of a northern Wisconsin seepage lake and implications for acid-deposition modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wentz, D.A.; Rose, W.J.

    1989-01-01

    Components of the hydrologic budget for a northern Wisconsin seepage lake were analyzed by applying correlation and regression techniques to monthly data. Analyses for the 1981-83 water years revealed a statistically significant, direct relationship between storage change and precipitation-evaporation balance. Ground-water outflow was negatively correlated with ground-water inflow, and this relationship was influenced by similar relationships for both hydraulic gradients and cross-sectional areas in outflow versus inflow regions of the lake. Neither ground-water outflow nor inflow was significantly related to precipitation, evaporation, storage change, or lake stage; this may reflect a lag in response time of the ground-water system compared to the lake. The results (1) emphasize the complexity of factors that influence ground-water interactions with seepage lakes and (2) suggest the importance of completing detailed hydrologic studies of these systems before mechanistic models, such as those developed to predict effects of acid deposition, are applied.

  13. Validating an erosion model using the environmental radionuclide 210Pb in the Lake Wollumboola catchment, southwestern NSW, Australia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Soil erosion is a key limitation to achieving sustainable land use and effective soil management, and is the major source of sediment to Australian water bodies resulting in degradation of water quality. Sediment delivery is an important constraint on the sustainable management of coastal lakes along the south coast of New South Wales. Assessment and mitigation of sediment input is a major issue for the sustainable management of water bodies such as coastal lakes and soil erosion caused by rainfall and runoff is of particular concern. In this paper we examine the application of 210Pb analyses of sediment samples to test the extent to which a modified version of the Universal Soil Loss Equation for Australian conditions (OxMUSCLE) is valid. The model is applied to Lake Wollumboola to estimate sediment yield from the catchment into its terminal lake, which is a saline coastal lake 172 km south of Sydney. 14 refs., 1 fig., 1 tab

  14. Predictive mechanistic bioenergetics to model habitat suitability of shellfish culture in coastal lakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rinaldi, A.; Montalto, V.; Manganaro, A.; Mazzola, A.; Mirto, S.; Sanfilippo, M.; Sarà, G.

    2014-05-01

    Quantitative tools based on mechanistic modelling of functional traits able to enhance the sustainability of aquaculture and most other human activities (i.e. reducing the likelihood of detrimental impacts optimising productions), are especially important factors in the decision to site aquaculture facilities in coastal lakes, ponds and lagoons and, in the case of detrimental impact, to adopt mitigation measures. We tested the ability of mechanistic functional trait based models to predict life history traits of cultivable shellfish in shallow coastal lakes. Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) models were run to generate spatially explicit predictions of Mytilus galloprovincialis life history (LH) traits (e.g. body size and fecundity). Using fortnightly data of food supply and hourly data of body temperatures, and exploiting the power of mechanistic rules, we estimated the amount of faeces ejected by a fixed quantity of organisms cultivated in two shallow Southern Mediterranean (Sicily) lakes. These differed in terms of temperature and food density, implying large differences in life history traits of mussels in the two study areas. This information could help facilitate the selection of sites where environmental conditions are more suitable for aquaculture and contextually compatible with sustainability. The validation exercise obtained by comparing the predicted and observed data was nearly consistent. Therefore, a mechanistic functional traits-based model seems able to capture the link between habitat characteristics and functional traits of organisms, delineating the fundamental portion of an ecological niche, the possibility of predicting LH traits and potential ecological applications in the management of natural coastal resources.

  15. Verification of a model for predicting the effect of inconstant temperature on embryonic development of lake whitefish (Coregonus clupeaformis)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berlin, William H.; Brooke, L.T.; Stone, Linda J.

    1977-01-01

    Eggs stripped from lake whitefish (Coregonus clupeaformis) spawning in Lake Michigan were incubated in the laboratory at temperatures similar to those on whitefish spawning grounds in Lake Michigan during December-April. Observed times from fertilization to attainment of each of 21 developmental stages were used to test a model that predicts the rate of development at daily fluctuating temperatures; the model relates rate of development for any given stage j, expressed as the reciprocal of time (Rj), to temperature (T). The generalized equation for a developmental stage is Rj = abTcT??.

  16. Neural network modeling for regional hazard assessment of debris flow in Lake Qionghai Watershed, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Y.; Guo, H. C.; Zou, R.; Wang, L. J.

    2006-04-01

    This paper presents a neural network (NN) based model to assess the regional hazard degree of debris flows in Lake Qionghai Watershed, China. The NN model was used as an alternative for the more conventional linear model MFCAM (multi-factor composite assessment model) in order to effectively handle the nonlinearity and uncertainty inherent in the debris flow hazard analysis. The NN model was configured using a three layer structure with eight input nodes and one output node, and the number of nodes in the hidden layer was determined through an iterative process of varying the number of nodes in the hidden layer until an optimal performance was achieved. The eight variables used to represent the eight input nodes include density of debris flow gully, degree of weathering of rocks, active fault density, area percentage of slope land greater than 25° of the total land (APL25), frequency of flooding hazards, average covariance of monthly precipitation by 10 years (ACMP10), average days with rainfall >25 mm by 10 years (25D10Y), and percentage of cultivated land with slope land greater than 25° of the total cultivated land (PCL25). The output node represents the hazard-degree ranks (HDR). The model was trained with the 35 sets of data obtained from previous researches reported in literatures, and an explicit uncertainty analysis was undertaken to address the uncertainty in model training and prediction. Before the NN model is extrapolated to Lake Qionghai Watershed, a validation case, different from the above data, is conducted. In addition, the performances of the NN model and the MFCAM were compared. The NN model predicted that the HDRs of the five sub-watersheds in the Lake Qionghai Watershed were IV, IV, III, III, and IV V, indicating that the study area covers normal hazard and severe hazard areas. Based on the NN model results, debris flow management and economic development strategies in the study are proposed for each sub-watershed.

  17. Hydraulic model study of the cooling lake for the La Salle County Nuclear Power Plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A hydraulic model study of the cooling lake of the La Salle County Nuclear Power Station of Commonwealth Edison was performed. Two sizes of lake were investigated. In both cases various configurations of the internal, baffle-dike layout were studied to determine the configuration giving the best cooling performance. The experiments were performed by injecting a solution of Rhodamine WT fluorescent dye at the plant discharge and measuring the dye concentration at the plant intake at suitable time intervals. On the basis of a mathematical model developed, the temperature difference between the intake and equilibrium temperatures was determined as a function of the surface heat exchange coefficient. Prediction of excess temperature is made for full discharge through the plant, and for the discharge corresponding to only one unit of the power plant in operation. Several configurations using curved turning vane dikes were also tested

  18. An agent-based model for water management and planning in the Lake Naivasha basin, Kenya

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Oel, Pieter; Mulatu, Dawit; Odongo, Vincent; Onyando, Japheth; Becht, Robert; van der Veen, Anne

    2013-04-01

    A variety of human and natural processes influence the ecological and economic state of the Lake Naivasha basin. The ecological wealth and recent economic developments in the area are strongly connected to Lake Naivasha which supports a rich variety of flora, mammal and bird species. Many human activities depend on clean freshwater from the lake whereas recently the freshwater availability of good quality is seriously influenced by water abstractions and the use of fertilizers in agriculture. Management alternatives include those aiming at limiting water abstractions and fertilizer use. A possible way to achieve reduced use of water and fertilizers is the introduction of Payment for Environmental Services (PES) schemes. As the Lake Naivasha basin and its population have experienced increasing pressures various disputes and disagreements have arisen about the processes responsible for the problems experienced, and the effectively of management alternatives. Beside conflicts of interest and disagreements on responsibilities there are serious factual disagreements. To share scientific knowledge on the effects of the socio-ecological system processes on the Lake Naivasha basin, tools may be used that expose information at temporal and spatial scales that are meaningful to stakeholders. In this study we use a spatially-explicit agent-based modelling (ABM) approach to depict the interactions between socio-economic and natural subsystems for supporting a more sustainable governance of the river basin resources. Agents consider alternative livelihood strategies and decide to go for the one they perceive as likely to be most profitable. Agents may predict and sense the availability of resources and also can observe economic performance achieved by neighbouring agents. Results are presented at the basin and subbasin level to provide relevant knowledge to Water Resources Users Associations which are important collective forums for water management through which PES schemes

  19. Does Antarctic glaciation cool the world?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Goldner

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available In this study we compare the simulated climatic impact of adding the Antarctic Ice Sheet to the "Greenhouse World" of the Eocene and removing the Antarctic Ice Sheet from the Modern world. The Modern surface temperature anomaly (ΔT induced by Antarctic Glaciation ranges from −1.22 to −0.18 K when CO2 is dropped from 2240 to 560 ppm, whereas the Eocene ΔT is nearly constant at −0.3 K. We calculate the climate sensitivity parameter S[Antarctica] which is defined as the change in surface temperature (ΔT divided by the change in radiative forcing (ΔQAntarctica imposed by prescribing the glacial properties of Antarctica. While the ΔT associated with the imposed Antarctic properties is relatively consistent across the Eocene cases, the radiative forcing is not. This leads to a wide range of S[Antarctica], with Eocene values systematically smaller than Modern.

    This differing temperature response in Eocene and Modern is partially due to the smaller surface area of the imposed forcing over Antarctica in the Eocene and partially due to the presence of strong positive sea-ice feedbacks in the Modern. The system's response is further mediated by differing shortwave cloud feedbacks which are large and of opposite sign operating in Modern and Eocene configurations. A negative cloud feedback warms much of the Earth's surface as a large ice sheet is introduced in Antarctica in the Eocene, whereas in the Modern this cloud feedback is positive and acts to enhance cooling introduced by adding an ice sheet. Because of the importance of cloud feedbacks in determining the final temperature sensitivity of the Antarctic Ice Sheet our results are likely to be model dependent. Nevertheless, these model results show that the radiative forcing and feedbacks induced by the Antarctic Ice Sheet did not significantly decrease global mean surface temperature across

  20. Biogenic-chemical stratified lake model for the origin of oil shale of the Green River Formation: alternative to the Playa-lake model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Desborough, G.A.

    1978-07-01

    A model is proposed which involves biogenic Mg enrichment, a stratified lake environment, and authigenic growth of minerals that led to the development of oil shale in the lacustrine Green River Formation. The chemistry and mineralogy of Ca--Mg--fe carbonates and other minerals in oil shale are consistent with an authigenic origin. The higher content of magnesium with respect to calcium in kerogen-rich rocks is probably due to the preferential concentration of magnesium with respect to calcium by blue-green algae whose remains released these cations after accumulation on the lake bottom. These elements were available for incorporation in Ca--Mg--Fe carbonates which crystallized in lake-bottom muds, while degradation of admixed algal material led to the development of kerogen. In modern lacustrine environments, primary and secondary Ca--Mg--Fe carbonate development and stability in terms of geologic time are consistent with authigenic development of the Ca--Mg--Fe carbonates present in Green River Formation oil shale. Iron is a significant component of these rhombohedral carbonate assemblages in oil shale, and thus it limits interpretations of origin of oil shale in the context of CaCO3--MgCO3 equilibria. The variable composition and variety of Ca--Mg--Fe carbonates in oil shale also prohibits interpretations in terms of CaCO--MgCO3 equilibrium diagrams. Greater amounts of mineral matter in time-stratigraphic intervals in the depositional center of the Piceance Creek basin, compared with the basin margins, suggest strongly that authigenic mineral development is more important than detrital accumulation of minerals in the richer oil-shale sequences.

  1. A dynamic predator - prey model for fishery resources: a case of Lake Kasumigaura

    OpenAIRE

    Y Kitabatake

    1982-01-01

    A dynamic model for fishery resources with predator - prey relationships is constructed based on observational data and research findings for Lake Kasumigaura, Japan. The analysis of the stationary state as well as the sensitivity analysis shows that the use of diesel-powered trawling, which enables the large-scale catch of prey species in comparison with the traditional method of sailing trawling, may lead to the extinction of predator as well as prey species once the trawling efficiency in ...

  2. Comparison of three nonlinear models to describe long-term tag shedding by lake trout

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fabrizio, Mary C.; Swanson, Bruce L.; Schram, Stephen T.; Hoff, Michael H.

    1996-01-01

    We estimated long-term tag-shedding rates for lake trout Salvelinus namaycush using two existing models and a model we developed to account for the observed permanence of some tags. Because tag design changed over the course of the study, we examined tag-shedding rates for three types of numbered anchor tags (Floy tags FD-67, FD-67C, and FD-68BC) and an unprinted anchor tag (FD-67F). Lake trout from the Gull Island Shoal region, Lake Superior, were double-tagged, and subsequent recaptures were monitored in annual surveys conducted from 1974 to 1992. We modeled tag-shedding rates, using time at liberty and probabilities of tag shedding estimated from fish released in 1974 and 1978–1983 and later recaptured. Long-term shedding of numbered anchor tags in lake trout was best described by a nonlinear model with two parameters: an instantaneous tag-shedding rate and a constant representing the proportion of tags that were never shed. Although our estimates of annual shedding rates varied with tag type (0.300 for FD-67, 0.441 for FD-67C, and 0.656 for FD-68BC), differences were not significant. About 36% of tags remained permanently affixed to the fish. Of the numbered tags that were shed (about 64%), two mechanisms contributed to tag loss: disintegration and dislodgment. Tags from about 11% of recaptured fish had disintegrated, but most tags were dislodged. Unprinted tags were shed at a significant but low rate immediately after release, but the long-term, annual shedding rate of these tags was only 0.013. Compared with unprinted tags, numbered tags dislodged at higher annual rates; we hypothesized that this was due to the greater frictional drag associated with the larger cross-sectional area of numbered tags.

  3. Polarimetric SAR modelling of a two-layer structure: A case study based on subarctic lakes

    OpenAIRE

    Al-Kahachi, Noora

    2014-01-01

    The work contributes to the interpretation of quad polarimetric SAR data over (shallow) subarctic lakes, on the purpose of investigating SAR capabilities in revealing facts about the subsurface and the inhomogeneities within the ice layer which are dominated mainly by methane bubbles. For this, a model for the polarimetric backscattering from a two-layer structure observed by a fully polarimetric side looking synthetic aperture radar at low frequency (L-Band) is developed. The upper layer ...

  4. Modelling and interpretation of polarimetric scattering from sub-arctic lakes at L-Band

    OpenAIRE

    Al-Kahachi, Noora; Papathanassiou, Konstantinos

    2013-01-01

    The presented work contributes to the interpretation of fully polarimetric SAR (Synthetic Aperture Radar) data over (shallow) sub-arctic lakes, on the purpose of investigating SAR capabilities in revealing facts about the subsurface and the inhomogeneities within the ice layer which are dominated mainly by methane bubbles. A model for the polarimetric backscattering from a two layer structure observed by a fully polarimetric side looking synthetic aperture radar at low frequencies (L-Band) is...

  5. Simulations of the impact of lake area on local microclimate by using COSMO NWP model

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Bartůňková, Kristýna; Sokol, Zbyněk; Fišák, Jaroslav

    Dordrecht: Springer, 2013 - (Rauch, S.; Morrison, G.; Norra, S.; Schleicher, N.), s. 355-364 ISBN 978-94-007-7755-2. [Urban Environment Symposium /11./. Karlsruhe (DE), 16.09.2012-19.09.2012] R&D Projects: GA TA ČR TA01020592 Institutional support: RVO:68378289 Keywords : lake * microclimate * NWP model * COSMO Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology http://www.springer.com/energy/policy,+economics,+ management +%26+transport/book/978-94-007-7755-2

  6. Hydrological modelling of a closed lake (Laguna Mar Chiquita, Argentina) in the context of 20th century climatic changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Troin, Magali; Vallet-Coulomb, Christine; Sylvestre, Florence; Piovano, Eduardo

    2010-11-01

    SummaryA major hydroclimatic change occured in southeastern South America at the beginning of the 1970s. This change was recorded in Laguna Mar Chiquita (central Argentina), the terminal saline lake of a 127,000 km 2 catchment as a dramatic rise in lake level larger than any observed over the past 230 years. Based on available continuous lake level monitoring since 1967, our study aimed to develop a lake water balance model for investigating the link between climate and lake level variations. Since un-gauged downstream surfaces represented approximately 80% of the catchment, the main challenge of the model development and implementation came from estimating the magnitude of catchment inputs from sparsely available gauge data. We determined a strongly negative water balance in the un-gauged part of the catchment that can be attributed to evapotranspiration in two large surface water hydrosystems. The chloride balance indicated that the lake is hydrologically closed, without significant groundwater outflows. Using contrasted hydroclimatic conditions, the robustness of the model calibration was evaluated with the model residual, and a short validation proposed for the 1998-2006 time period. Sensitivity analyses were performed in order to identify the main forcing factors of lake variations. We determined that the abrupt lake level rise in the early 1970s could be attributed to increased runoff in the upper northern sub-basin, suggesting a tropical climatic influence. Based on available hydroclimatic data, we propose a continuous lake level simulation for the 1926-2006 time period which could be used as a reference curve for better constraining paleohydrological reconstructions from sedimentary proxies.

  7. Predictive Models for Escherichia coli Concentrations at Inland Lake Beaches and Relationship of Model Variables to Pathogen Detection

    OpenAIRE

    Francy, Donna S.; Stelzer, Erin A.; Duris, Joseph W.; Brady, Amie M. G.; Harrison, John H.; Johnson, Heather E.; Ware, Michael W.

    2013-01-01

    Predictive models, based on environmental and water quality variables, have been used to improve the timeliness and accuracy of recreational water quality assessments, but their effectiveness has not been studied in inland waters. Sampling at eight inland recreational lakes in Ohio was done in order to investigate using predictive models for Escherichia coli and to understand the links between E. coli concentrations, predictive variables, and pathogens. Based upon results from 21 beach sites,...

  8. The importance of diverse data types to calibrate a watershed model of the Trout Lake Basin, Northern Wisconsin, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hunt, Randall J.; Feinstein, Daniel T.; Pint, Christine D.; Anderson, Mary P.

    2006-04-01

    As part of the USGS Water, Energy, and Biogeochemical Budgets project and the NSF Long-Term Ecological Research work, a parameter estimation code was used to calibrate a deterministic groundwater flow model of the Trout Lake Basin in northern Wisconsin. Observations included traditional calibration targets (head, lake stage, and baseflow observations) as well as unconventional targets such as groundwater flows to and from lakes, depth of a lake water plume, and time of travel. The unconventional data types were important for parameter estimation convergence and allowed the development of a more detailed parameterization capable of resolving model objectives with well-constrained parameter values. Independent estimates of groundwater inflow to lakes were most important for constraining lakebed leakance and the depth of the lake water plume was important for determining hydraulic conductivity and conceptual aquifer layering. The most important target overall, however, was a conventional regional baseflow target that led to correct distribution of flow between sub-basins and the regional system during model calibration. The use of an automated parameter estimation code: (1) facilitated the calibration process by providing a quantitative assessment of the model's ability to match disparate observed data types; and (2) allowed assessment of the influence of observed targets on the calibration process. The model calibration required the use of a 'universal' parameter estimation code in order to include all types of observations in the objective function. The methods described in this paper help address issues of watershed complexity and non-uniqueness common to deterministic watershed models.

  9. Modeling MTBE and BTEX in lakes and reservoirs used for recreational boating.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heald, Prescott C; Schladow, S Geoffrey; Reuter, John E; Allen, Brant C

    2005-02-15

    It is generally recognized that the bulk of fuel-related volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in lakes and reservoirs come from motorized recreational boating, but a quantitative connection between the two has been difficult to establish. A detailed boating use survey was conducted at a Northern California multiple-use lake, and the results were used to quantify daily methyl tert-butyl ether (MTBE) and benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, and xylene (BTEX) loading from recreational boating. A one-dimensional, process-based numerical model was used to predict VOC levels as a function of the number, type, and activity of marine engines using the lake, the vertical mixing dynamics of the lake, and the volatilization rates of the individual VOCs. The model was validated on two other reservoirs to establish its applicability under a range of climatic and boating conditions. The study further confirmed the link between motorized boating and surface-water VOC contamination. In addition, the results of this study suggest that volatilization alone is inadequate to describe the loss of volatile hydrocarbons from surface waters and that some combination of additional degradation processes is involved. Under low wind conditions, these degradation processes dominate the removal of MTBE. For toluene, these processes are always more dominant than volatilization. The mean relative percent difference (RPD) between measured and simulated VOC concentrations at the study site, accounting only for volatilization losses, was 50.6% for MTBE and 113% for toluene. A first-order submodel was implemented to account for losses other than volatilization, using decay coefficients estimated from the literature. The resulting mean RPDs between measured and modeled concentrations were 14.2% for MTBE and 4.5% for toluene. PMID:15773484

  10. AQUATOX coupled foodweb model for ecosystem risk assessment of Polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) in lake ecosystems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The AQUATOX model considers the direct toxic effects of chemicals and their indirect effects through foodwebs. For this study, the AQUATOX model was applied to evaluating the ecological risk of Polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) in a highly anthropogenically disturbed lake-Baiyangdian Lake. Calibration and validation results indicated that the model can adequately describe the dynamics of 18 biological populations. Sensitivity analysis results suggested that the model is highly sensitive to temperature limitation. PBDEs risk estimate results demonstrate that estimated risk for natural ecosystems cannot be fully explained by single species toxicity data alone. The AQUATOX model could provide a good basis in ascertaining ecological protection levels of “chemicals of concern” for aquatic ecosystems. Therefore, AQUATOX can potentially be used to provide necessary information corresponding to early warning and rapid forecasting of pollutant transport and fate in the management of chemicals that put aquatic ecosystems at risk. - Highlights: • AQUATOX model incorporates direct toxic effects and indirect ecological effects. • Ecological risk of PBDEs was assessed by the AQUATOX model. • The model could help determine ecological threshold of “chemicals of concern”. - Capsule abstract: Application of the AQUATOX model to assess the direct and indirect ecological risk of PBDEs

  11. Geochemical and Thermodinamic Modeling of Segara Anak Lake and the 2009 Eruption of Rinjani Volcano, Lombok, Indonesia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Akhmad Solikhin

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available DOI: 10.17014/ijog.v5i4.106Rinjani is the second highest volcano in Indonesia with an elevation of 3726 m above sea level. The steep and highest cone of Rinjani consists mainly of loose pyroclastic ejecta and contains a crater with a few solfataras. The West of this cone is Segara Anak caldera. The western side of the caldera is occupied by a 230 m deep lake, covering an area of 11 km² and its volume was (before the 2009 eruption estimated 1.02 km3. This is probably the largest hot volcanic lake in the world.The lake water is neutral (pH: 7-8 and its chemistry dominated by chlorides and sulfates with a relatively high TDS (Total Dissolved Solids: 2640 mg/l. This unusual TDS as well as the lake surface temperatures (20 - 22°C well above ambient temperatures (14 - 15°C for this altitude, reflect a strong input of hydrothermal fluids. Numerous hot springs are located along the shore at the foot of Barujari volcanic cone. Bathymetric profiles show also several areas with columns of gas bubbles escaping from the lake floor indicating a significant discharge of CO gas into the lake. The mass and energy balance model of Rinjani Crater Lake produce total heat lost value on the average of 1700 MW. Most of the heating periods of the lake occurred when the heat released by the surface of the lake to the atmosphere was lower than the heat supplied from the hydrothermal system. Peaks of heat losses correspond to period of strong winds. Crater lake monitoring can provide a basic information about deep magmatic activity and surface processes that occur in the volcano. The monitoring also contributes to predict the next eruption in order to improve mitigation of volcanic eruption. Precursory signals of the May 2009 eruption can be seen from significant changes in the temperature and chemistry of some of the hot springs, the increase of Fe concentrations in spring #54, chemical plume of low pH and dissolved oxygen, acidification of Segara

  12. Biodiversity and biogeography of Antarctic and sub-Antarctic mollusca

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linse, Katrin; Griffiths, Huw J.; Barnes, David K. A.; Clarke, Andrew

    2006-04-01

    For many decades molluscan data have been critical to the establishment of the concept of a global-scale increase in species richness from the poles to the equator. Low polar diversity is key to this latitudinal cline in diversity. Here we investigate richness patterns in the two largest classes of molluscs at both local and regional scales throughout the Southern Ocean. We show that biodiversity is very patchy in the Southern Ocean (at the 1000-km scale) and test the validity of historical biogeographic sub-regions and provinces. We used multivariate analysis of biodiversity patterns at species, genus and family levels to define richness hotspots within the Southern Ocean and transition areas. This process identified the following distinct sub-regions in the Southern Ocean: Antarctic Peninsula, Weddell Sea, East Antarctic—Dronning Maud Land, East Antarctic—Enderby Land, East Antarctic—Wilkes Land, Ross Sea, and the independent Scotia arc and sub Antarctic islands. Patterns of endemism were very different between the bivalves and gastropods. On the basis of distributional ranges and radiation centres of evolutionarily successful families and genera we define three biogeographic provinces in the Southern Ocean: (1) the continental high Antarctic province excluding the Antarctic Peninsula, (2) the Scotia Sea province including the Antarctic Peninsula, and (3) the sub Antarctic province comprising the islands in the vicinity of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current.

  13. Truce with oxygen - A naerobiosis outcompete aerobiosis in the Antarctic lacustrine bacteria

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    LokaBharathi, P.A.; Nair, S.; DeSouza, M.J.B.D.; Chandramohan, D.

    The total number of bacteria counted directly by epifluorescent microscopy showed that they ranged from 10 sup(8)-10 sup(-1) in Antarctic lake water samples. The percentages of retrievable viable counts (RVC) of anaerobic bacteria (AnB) was greater...

  14. A biophysical model of Lake Erie walleye (Sander vitreus) explains interannual variations in recruitment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Yingming; Jones, Michael L.; Shuter, Brian J.; Roseman, Edward F.

    2009-01-01

    We used a three-dimensional coupled hydrodynamic-ecological model to investigate how lake currents can affect walleye (Sander vitreus) recruitment in western Lake Erie. Four years were selected based on a fall recruitment index: two high recruitment years (i.e., 1996 and 1999) and two low recruitment years (i.e., 1995 and 1998). During the low recruitment years, the model predicted that (i) walleye spawning grounds experienced destructive bottom currents capable of dislodging eggs from suitable habitats (reefs) to unsuitable habitats (i.e., muddy bottom), and (ii) the majority of newly hatched larvae were transported away from the known suitable nursery grounds at the start of their first feeding. Conversely, during two high recruitment years, predicted bottom currents at the spawning grounds were relatively weak, and the predicted movement of newly hatched larvae was toward suitable nursery grounds. Thus, low disturbance-based egg mortality and a temporal and spatial match between walleye first feeding larvae and their food resources were predicted for the two high recruitment years, and high egg mortality plus a mismatch of larvae with their food resources was predicted for the two low recruitment years. In general, mild westerly or southwesterly winds during the spawning-nursery period should favour walleye recruitment in the lake.

  15. USE OF POM AND ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS IN THE THREEDIMENSIONAL MODELING OF LAKES : GOKPINAR DAM RESERVOIR AS A CASE STUDY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mahmut FIRAT

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available The circulation pattern in lakes and reservoirs varies according to many external factors. In situ measurement of the occuring flow pattern in every point of the lake is a very costly and hard task. For this reason, models determining the velocities and surface fluctuations are developed by using computers. The use of these models enables the generation of the foundation for the prediction of possible environmental problems and water pollution concentrations. Today, three dimensional models are widely used in the modelling of lakes and reservoirs. In this study, the velocity profiles and surface fluctuation values generated under various wind speed and directions at some sections in Gokpinar Lake in Denizli are obtained by applying artificial neural networks (ANN on the results of three dimensional hydrodynamic model of the lake made with Princeton Ocean Model (POM. The developed ANN model is applied to the same sections for different wind conditions and it is found that the results are in accordance with the results of POM. As a result of the comparisons of the models, the superiorities of the models on each other at the model generation and solution phases are determined and mentioned.

  16. On Evaluating circulation and temperature stratification under changing water levels in Lake Mead with a 3D hydrodynamic model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Y.; Acharya, K.; Chen, D.; Stone, M.; Yu, Z.; Young, M.; Zhu, J.; Shafer, D. S.; Warwick, J. J.

    2009-12-01

    Sustained drought in the western United States since 2000 has led to a significant drop (about 35 meters) in the water level of Lake Mead, the largest reservoir by volume in United States. The drought combined with rapid urban development in southern Nevada and emergence of invasive species has threatened the water quality and ecological processes in Lake Mead. A three-dimensional hydrodynamic model, Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code (EFDC), was applied to investigate lake circulation and temperature stratification in parts of Lake Mead (Las Vegas Bay and Boulder Basin) under changing water levels. Besides the inflow from Las Vegas Wash and the Colorado River, the model considered atmospheric changes as well as the boundary conditions restricted by the operation of Hoover Dam. The model was calibrated and verified by using observed data including water level, velocity, and temperature from 2003 and 2005. The model was applied to study the hydrodynamic processes at water level 366.8 m (year 2000) and at water level 338.2 m (year 2008). The high-stage simulation described the pre-drought lake hydrodynamic processes while the low-stage simulation highlighted the drawdown impact on such processes. The results showed that both inflow and wind-driven mixing process played major roles in the thermal stratification and lake circulation in both cases. However, the atmospheric boundary played a more important role than inflow temperature on thermal stratification of Lake Mead during water level decline. Further, the thermal stratification regime and flow circulation pattern in shallow lake regions (e.g.., the Boulder Basin area) were most impacted. The temperature of the lake at the high-stage was more sensitive to inflow temperatures than at low-stage. Furthermore, flow velocities decreased with the decreasing water level due to reduction in wind impacts, particularly in shallow areas of the lake. Such changes in temperature and lake current due to present drought have a

  17. Nowcast modeling of Escherichia coli concentrations at multiple urban beaches of southern Lake Michigan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nevers, Meredith B.; Whitman, Richard L.

    2005-01-01

    Predictive modeling for Escherichia coli concentrations at effluent-dominated beaches may be a favorable alternative to current, routinely criticized monitoring standards. The ability to model numerous beaches simultaneously and provide real-time data decreases cost and effort associated with beach monitoring. In 2004, five Lake Michigan beaches and the nearby Little Calumet River outfall were monitored for E. coli 7 days a week; on nine occasions, samples were analyzed for coliphage to indicate a sewage source. Ambient lake, river, and weather conditions were measured or obtained from independent monitoring sources. Positive tests for coliphage analysis indicated sewage was present in the river and on bathing beaches following heavy rainfall. Models were developed separately for days with prevailing onshore and offshore winds due to the strong influence of wind direction in determining the river's impact on the beaches. Using regression modeling, it was determined that during onshore winds, E. coli   could be adequately predicted using wave height, lake chlorophyll and turbidity, and river turbidity (R2=0.635, N=94); model performance decreased for offshore winds using wave height, wave period, and precipitation (R2=0.320, N=124). Variation was better explained at individual beaches. Overall, the models only failed to predict E. coli levels above the EPA closure limit (235 CFU/100 ml) on five of eleven occasions, indicating that the model is a more reliable alternative to the monitoring approach employed at most recreational beaches.

  18. Analysis of regional rainfall-runoff parameters for the Lake Michigan Diversion hydrological modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soong, David T.; Over, Thomas M.

    2015-01-01

    The Lake Michigan Diversion Accounting (LMDA) system has been developed by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Chicago District (USACE-Chicago) and the State of Illinois as a part of the interstate Great Lakes water regulatory program. The diverted Lake Michigan watershed is a 673-square-mile watershed that is comprised of the Chicago River and Calumet River watersheds. They originally drained into Lake Michigan, but now flow to the Mississippi River watershed via three canals constructed in the Chicago area in the early twentieth century. Approximately 393 square miles of the diverted watershed is ungaged, and the runoff from the ungaged portion of the diverted watershed has been estimated by the USACE-Chicago using the Hydrological Simulation Program-FORTRAN (HSPF) program. The accuracy of simulated runoff depends on the accuracy of the parameter set used in the HSPF program. Nine parameter sets comprised of the North Branch, Little Calumet, Des Plaines, Hickory Creek, CSSC, NIPC, 1999, CTE, and 2008 have been developed at different time periods and used by the USACE-Chicago. In this study, the U.S. Geological Survey and the USACE-Chicago collaboratively analyzed the parameter sets using nine gaged watersheds in or adjacent to the diverted watershed to assess the predictive accuracies of selected parameter sets. Six of the parameter sets, comprising North Branch, Hickory Creek, NIPC, 1999, CTE, and 2008, were applied to the nine gaged watersheds for evaluating their simulation accuracy from water years 1996 to 2011. The nine gaged watersheds were modeled by using the three LMDA land-cover types (grass, forest, and hydraulically connected imperviousness) based on the 2006 National Land Cover Database, and the latest meteorological and precipitation data consistent with the current (2014) LMDA modeling framework.

  19. Ecuadorian antarctic act

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    To develop research in this continent involves to take communion with earth where the cold pole of the planet is located, the stormiest sea of the world surround it and where the capricious continental and geographical distribution permits the pass of meteorological violent and continuous systems. The Ecuador, in execution of the acquired commitments like Full Member of the System of the Antarctic Treaty, carried out the VII Expedition to the White Continent with an extensive program of scientific investigation in the field of: Sciences of Life, Sciences of the Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, so much in the environment of the Pacific Southeast, the Drake Pass, Bransfield Strait and the nearby ecosystems antarctic to Point Fort William in the Greenwich Island, site where the Ecuadorian station Pedro Vicente Maldonado is located. The scientific articles, result of the fruitful work of national investigator is consigned in this fourth edition. This publication constitutes our contribution to the world in the knowledge, understanding and handling of the marvelous White Continent from the middle of our planet, Ecuador

  20. A Bivalve Proxy for Neogene Antarctic Shelf Marine Environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, N. A.; Williams, M.; Quilty, P. G.; Leng, M. J.; Zalasiewicz, J. A.; Smellie, J.; Dowsett, H. J.

    2012-12-01

    The Neogene shallow-marine successions of the Antarctic Peninsula and of the East Antarctic region preserve rich assemblages of bivalve molluscs. These bivalve molluscs provide a detailed record of palaeoseasonality in the chemical signature and morphology of their shells that can be used to assess sea temperatures and sea ice extent for the Antarctic shelf during the Pliocene. Analyses identify the following. 1) Neogene bivalves from James Ross Island, Antarctic Peninsula, comprise material of late Miocene through to late Pliocene age. Results identify warm (ca. 3-10 °C) early Pliocene sea temperatures, and cooler late Pliocene sea temperatures (ca. 0-4 °C), and flag a cooling trend which is consistent with the evolution of polar climate through this interval. 2) Neogene bivalves from the Larsemann Hills, East Antarctic, identify generally warmer than present sea temperatures (ca. 0-11 °C) in the early Pliocene consistent with data from other fossil groups of this age, including dolphins and silicoflagellates. The new data may provide significant ground truth for climate models assessing the Southern Ocean and Antarctic shelf climate.

  1. Transcriptomics and comparative analysis of three antarctic notothenioid fishes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seung Chul Shin

    Full Text Available For the past 10 to 13 million years, Antarctic notothenioid fish have undergone extraordinary periods of evolution and have adapted to a cold and highly oxygenated Antarctic marine environment. While these species are considered an attractive model with which to study physiology and evolutionary adaptation, they are poorly characterized at the molecular level, and sequence information is lacking. The transcriptomes of the Antarctic fishes Notothenia coriiceps, Chaenocephalus aceratus, and Pleuragramma antarcticum were obtained by 454 FLX Titanium sequencing of a normalized cDNA library. More than 1,900,000 reads were assembled in a total of 71,539 contigs. Overall, 40% of the contigs were annotated based on similarity to known protein or nucleotide sequences, and more than 50% of the predicted transcripts were validated as full-length or putative full-length cDNAs. These three Antarctic fishes shared 663 genes expressed in the brain and 1,557 genes expressed in the liver. In addition, these cold-adapted fish expressed more Ub-conjugated proteins compared to temperate fish; Ub-conjugated proteins are involved in maintaining proteins in their native state in the cold and thermally stable Antarctic environments. Our transcriptome analysis of Antarctic notothenioid fish provides an archive for future studies in molecular mechanisms of fundamental genetic questions, and can be used in evolution studies comparing other fish.

  2. Validation of a model with climatic and flow scenario analysis: case of Lake Burrumbeet in southeastern Australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yihdego, Yohannes; Webb, John

    2016-05-01

    Forecast evaluation is an important topic that addresses the development of reliable hydrological probabilistic forecasts, mainly through the use of climate uncertainties. Often, validation has no place in hydrology for most of the times, despite the parameters of a model are uncertain. Similarly, the structure of the model can be incorrectly chosen. A calibrated and verified dynamic hydrologic water balance spreadsheet model has been used to assess the effect of climate variability on Lake Burrumbeet, southeastern Australia. The lake level has been verified to lake level, lake volume, lake surface area, surface outflow and lake salinity. The current study aims to increase lake level confidence model prediction through historical validation for the year 2008-2013, under different climatic scenario. Based on the observed climatic condition (2008-2013), it fairly matches with a hybridization of scenarios, being the period interval (2008-2013), corresponds to both dry and wet climatic condition. Besides to the hydrologic stresses uncertainty, uncertainty in the calibrated model is among the major drawbacks involved in making scenario simulations. In line with this, the uncertainty in the calibrated model was tested using sensitivity analysis and showed that errors in the model can largely be attributed to erroneous estimates of evaporation and rainfall, and surface inflow to a lesser. The study demonstrates that several climatic scenarios should be analysed, with a combination of extreme climate, stream flow and climate change instead of one assumed climatic sequence, to improve climate variability prediction in the future. Performing such scenario analysis is a valid exercise to comprehend the uncertainty with the model structure and hydrology, in a meaningful way, without missing those, even considered as less probable, ultimately turned to be crucial for decision making and will definitely increase the confidence of model prediction for management of the water

  3. A DPSIR model for ecological security assessment through indicator screening: a case study at Dianchi Lake in China.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhen Wang

    Full Text Available Given the important role of lake ecosystems in social and economic development, and the current severe environmental degradation in China, a systematic diagnosis of the ecological security of lakes is essential for sustainable development. A Driving-force, Pressure, Status, Impact, and Risk (DPSIR model, combined with data screening for lake ecological security assessment was developed to overcome the disadvantages of data selection in existing assessment methods. Correlation and principal component analysis were used to select independent and representative data. The DPSIR model was then applied to evaluate the ecological security of Dianchi Lake in China during 1988-2007 using an ecological security index. The results revealed a V-shaped trend. The application of the DPSIR model with data screening provided useful information regarding the status of the lake's ecosystem, while ensuring information efficiency and eliminating multicollinearity. The modeling approach described here is practical and operationally efficient, and provides an attractive alternative approach to assess the ecological security of lakes.

  4. A digital terrain model of bathymetry and shallow-zone bottom-substrate classification for Spednic Lake and estimates of lake-level-dependent habitat to support smallmouth bass persistence modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dudley, Robert W.; Schalk, Charles W.; Stasulis, Nicholas W.; Trial, Joan G.

    2011-01-01

    In 2009, the U.S. Geological Survey entered into a cooperative agreement with the International Joint Commission, St. Croix River Board to do an analysis of historical smallmouth bass habitat as a function of lake level for Spednic Lake in an effort to quantify the effects, if any, of historical lake-level management and meteorological conditions (from 1970 to 2009) on smallmouth bass year-class failure. The analysis requires estimating habitat availability as a function of lake level during spawning periods from 1970 to 2009, which is documented in this report. Field work was done from October 19 to 23, and from November 2 to 10, 2009, to acquire acoustic bathymetric (depth) data and acoustic data indicating the character of the surficial lake-bottom sediments. Historical lake-level data during smallmouth bass spawning (May-June) were applied to the bathymetric and surficial-sediment type data sets to produce annual historic estimates of smallmouth-bass-spawning-habitat area. Results show that minimum lake level during the spawning period explained most of the variability (R2 = 0.89) in available spawning habitat for nearshore areas of shallow slope (less than 10 degrees) on the basis of linear correlation. The change in lake level during the spawning period explained most of the variability (R2 = 0.90) in available spawning habitat for areas of steeper slopes (10 to 40 degrees) on the basis of linear correlation. The next step in modeling historic smallmouth bass year-class persistence is to combine this analysis of the effects of lake-level management on habitat availability with meteorological conditions.

  5. Modelling Upwelling Irradiance using Secchi disk depth in lake ecosystems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudio ROSSI

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available A simple model for upwelling irradiance has been developed. The model represents the relationship between Photosynthetically Active Radiation diffuse attenuation coefficients and Secchi disk depth described with a physical-mathematical expression. This physical mathematical expression allows the evaluation of the sub surface upwelling irradiance that was generated by the interaction between downwelling irradiance and the water column. The validation of the relation was performed using experimental data collected from five different aquatic ecosystems at different latitudes, solar elevations and irradiance levels. We found a good linear, positive correlation between the theoretical and measured upwelling irradiance (R2 = 0.96. The residues were well distributed, around the null value, according a Gaussian curve (R2 = 0.92. The results confirm the importance and the versatility of the Secchi disk measurements for aquatic optics.

  6. Evaporation Estimation of Rift Valley Lakes: Comparison of Models

    OpenAIRE

    Tibebe Dessalegne; Wossenu Abtew; Assefa M. Melesse

    2009-01-01

    Evapotranspiration (ET) accounts for a substantial amount of the water flux in the arid and semi-arid regions of the World. Accurate estimation of ET has been a challenge for hydrologists, mainly because of the spatiotemporal variability of the environmental and physical parameters governing the latent heat flux. In addition, most available ET models depend on intensive meteorological information for ET estimation. Such data are not available at the desired spatial and temporal scales in less...

  7. Precipitation regimes in the Levant during the Holocene inferred from Dead Sea lake levels and stochastic modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morin, Efrat; Ryb, Tamar; Gavrieli, Ittai; Enzel, Yehouda

    2016-04-01

    The Dead Sea is a terminal lake of one of the largest watersheds in the Levant (~43,000 square km), draining sub-humid to hyperarid climate zones. The large size of the watershed and the synchronous regional pattern of annual precipitation are the main reasons that the Dead Sea lake levels are good proxies for the Levant precipitation. Since the mid-1960s intensive water diversions from this watershed caused a dramatic human-induced level drop (currently >1 m/year). Holocene lake levels were used to infer regional precipitation regimes. Previous studies have associated lake level rises and drops with past wet and dry periods in the region, but their quantitative assessment remains a challenge. Moreover, the attributing of lake levels alterations to changes in precipitation regime still misses natural precipitation variability and there is a need to identify and separate their effects. The current study confronts these basic challenges that underlie the transfer of proxy to climatic parameter procedures. It uses here a unique stochastic framework under which we link precipitation regime with the Dead Sea lake levels, considering changes and trends in both mean and variance. Then we infer Levant precipitation regime during the Holocene. The present mean and variance of annual precipitation and lake levels are represented by (a) Kfar Giladi rain station, determined as the best correlated with natural Dead Sea lake level changes, and, (b) using a water balance model; this allowed simulating mean and variance of annual lake levels. Stochastic simulations included scenarios of changes in precipitation regime considering both constant and trended mean annual precipitation. We assessed probabilities of obtaining specific rises and drops, derived from reconstructed Holocene lake levels, under diverse scenarios. The results suggest that late Holocene precipitation regime could be governed by periods of increasing and decreasing trends of mean annual precipitation in the

  8. Airborne gamma-ray spectrometric anomaly characteristics and prospecting model for quaternary salt lake type potash deposit

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    On the basis of the airborne gamma-ray spectrometric data, this paper briefly discusses partial scientific research achievements related to prospecting for potash and the establishment of prospecting model for Quaternary salt lake type potash deposit, and furthermore through the analysis on Bieletan and Mahai Potash deposits, it shows that airborne gamma-ray spectrometry is certainly of evident effect in prospecting for Quaternary salt lake type potash deposit

  9. Modelling reversibility of Central European mountain lakes from acidification: Part I - the Bohemian forest

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Majer

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available A dynamic, process-based acidification model, MAGIC7, has been applied to three small, strongly acidified lakes in the Bohemian Forest, the Czech Republic. The model was calibrated for a set of experimental records on lake water composition over the 1984–2000 period, and produced hindcast concentrations that compared well, even with older (40-year irregular determinations of nitrate, chloride and pH. Water and soil chemistry forecasts up to 2050 were based on reductions in S and N emissions presupposed by the Gothenburg Protocol. Modelled sulphate and chloride concentrations were predicted to decrease to the levels at the beginning of the 20th century by 2050. The lake water carbonate buffering system is predicted to be re-established in only two lakes (Cerné and Plešné, with current soil base saturations of 12-15%. Concentrations of ionic aluminium species decreased sharply, from 110 μeq l-1 in the mid-1980s to the current ~40 μeq l-1, and were predicted to decrease below 10 μeq l-1 in the 2020s. Diatom-inferred pH in pre-industrial times was substantially lower than modelled pH. It is suggested that the diatom pH, based almost entirely on non-planktonic species, is biased by inwash of diatoms from more acidic tributaries into the sediment of these small lakes. Generally significant results can be summarised as follows: (1 Simulated sulphate levels agree well with observations during acidification progress and retreat only for values of soil SO42- adsorption capacity three to six times (20 to 40 μeq kg-1 higher than those found experimentally. This implies a further mechanism of S retention and release in addition to physical sulphate adsorption to Fe and Al oxides of soils. (2 The catchments’ ability to retain deposited N appeared to decline after ~1950 but this was not connected with a sufficient change in the C:N ratio of the soils. Agreement between modelled and observed concentrations of nitrate was therefore achieved by

  10. Simulation models for water pollution in rivers and lakes; Suishitsu osen no simulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hosomi, M. [Tokyo Univ. of Agriculture and Technology, Koganei (Japan). Faculty of Technology

    1996-11-05

    Rivers, lakes, and dam lakes are taken up as fields related to urban environment, and simulation models for water pollution control is introduced which are considered to be important for controlling water quality. In connection with rivers, a model showing the relationship between organic contamination and DO (dissolved oxygen) as well as an analyzed example of the use of continuous data of easy-to-measure DO are introduced. DO and pH in urban rivers sometimes exceed the environmental standards in the dry season. The cause is greater effect of biofilm adhesion at the river bed due to elongated staying time, and the establishment of the maintained river flow rate must be reviewed. One of the problems of ecological models is the deficiency of the data for the verification of the ecological models, and arrangement to solve the problem is required. Although it is admitted that simulation of phytoplankton in which neural network is employed has just started, it is expected to become an effective means for the study of phenomena which can not be elucidated by the modeling using normal numeric models. 7 refs., 13 figs.

  11. Modelled present and future thaw lake area expansion/contraction trends throughout the continuous permafrost zone

    OpenAIRE

    Mi, Y.; van Huissteden, J; DOLMAN A. J.

    2014-01-01

    Thaw lakes and drained lake basins are a dominant feature of Arctic lowlands. Thaw lakes are a source of the greenhouse gas methane (CH4), which is produced under anaerobic conditions, while drained lake basins are carbon sinks due to sedimentation. Besides feedbacks on climate, the development of thaw lakes due to the melt-out of ground ice and subsequent ground subsidence, can have significant impacts on the regional morphology, hydrology, geophysics and...

  12. HYDROLOGIC MODELLING OF KATSINA-ALA RIVER BASIN: AN EMERGING SCENARIO FROM LAKE NYOS THREAT

    OpenAIRE

    Akinyede, J.O.; R. Babamaaji; M. Vaatough; K. A. Adepoju

    2012-01-01

    Understanding the hydrologic system surrounding crater lakes is of great importance for prevention of flooding damages, conservation of ecological environment, and assessment of socio-economic impact of dam failure on the civilians in the downstream regions. Lake Nyos is a crater lake formed by volcanic activities at the Oku volcanic field on the Cameroon Volcanic Line. It is a freshwater lake with a maximum depth of 200 meter. In 1986, a limnic eruption at the lake emitted 1.6 million tonnes...

  13. Three-dimensional hydrodynamic and water quality model for TMDL development of Lake Fuxian, China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Lei Zhao; Xiaoling Zhang; Yong Liu; Bin He; Xiang Zhu; Rui Zou; Yuanguan Zhu

    2012-01-01

    Lake Fuxian is the largest deep freshwater lake in China.Although its average water quality meets Class Ⅰ of the China National Water Quality Standard(CNWQS),i.e.,GB3838-2002,monitoring data indicate that the water quality approaches the Class Ⅱ threshold in some areas.Thus it is urgent to reduce the watershed load through the total maximum daily load(TMDL)program.A three-dimensional hydrodynamic and water quality model was developed for Lake Fuxian,simulating flow circulation and pollutant fate and transport.The model development process consists of several steps,including grid generation,initial and boundary condition configurations,and model calibration processes.The model accurately reproduced the observed water surface elevation,spatiotemporal variations in temperature,and total nitrogen(TN),total phosphorus(TP),and chemical oxygen demand(COD)concentrations,suggesting a reasonable numerical representation of the prototype system for further TMDL analyses.The TMDL was calculated using two interpretations of the water quality standards for Class Ⅰ of the CNWQS based on the maximum instantaneous surface and annual average surface water concentrations.Analysis of the first scenario indicated that the TN,TP and COD loads should be reduced by 66%,68% and 57%,respectively.Water quality was the highest priority; however,local economic development and cost feasibility for load reduction can pose significant issues.In the second interpretation,the model results showed that,under the existing conditions,the average water quality meets the Class Ⅰ standard and therefore load reduction is unnecessary.Future studies are needed to conduct risk and cost assessments for realistic decision-making.

  14. Satellite magnetic anomalies of the Antarctic crust

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. E. Alsdorf

    2000-06-01

    Full Text Available Spatially and temporally static crustal magnetic anomalies are contaminated by static core field effects above spherical harmonic degree 12 and dynamic, large-amplitude external fields. To extract crustal magnetic anomalies from the measurements of NASA's Magsat mission, we separate crustal signals from both core and external field effects. In particular, we define Magsat anomalies relative to the degree 11 field and use spectral correlation theory to reduce them for external field effects. We obtain a model of Antarctic crustal thickness by comparing the region's terrain gravity effects to free-air gravity anomalies derived from the Earth Gravity Model 1996 (EGM96. To separate core and crustal magnetic effects, we obtain the pseudo-magnetic effect of the crustal thickness variations from their gravity effect via Poisson's theorem for correlative potentials. We compare the pseudo-magnetic effect of the crustal thickness variations to field differences between degrees 11 and 13 by spectral correlation analysis. We thus identify and remove possible residual core field effects in the Magsat anomalies relative to the degree 11 core field. The resultant anomalies reflect possible Antarctic contrasts due both to crustal thickness and intracrustal variations of magnetization. In addition, they provide important constraints on the geologic interpretation of aeromagnetic survey data, such as are available for the Weddell Province. These crustal anomalies also may be used to correct for long wavelength errors in regional compilations of near-surface magnetic survey data. However, the validity of these applications is limited by the poor quality of the Antarctic Magsat data that were obtained during austral Summer and Fall when south polar external field activity was maximum. Hence an important test and supplement for the Antarctic crustal Magsat anomaly map will be provided by the data from the recently launched Ørsted mission, which will yield coverage

  15. Modeling operation of a pumped-storage plant in Lake Suldalsvatn

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Charmasson, Julie [Sintef Energy, Trondheim (Norway)

    2012-07-01

    In a context of climate change, use of renewable energies should highly increase in the coming decades. Existing reservoirs and hydropower plants could be used to balance intermittent energy sources such as wind power and solar energy by pumping water from the downstream reservoirs and storing it in the upstream ones when electricity demand is low, and releasing it to generate electricity in high demand periods. Lake Suldalsvatn, located on the Western coast of Norway, is the lowermost reservoir of Ulla-F#Latin Small Letter O With Stroke#rre, the largest hydropower plants system in Northern Europe. Today, it receives turbinated waters from Kvilldal and Suldal hydro power plants, and supplies water to Hylen power plant. In the future, new operational regimes could include the alternation of pumping phases and production phases through installation of a new pumped-storage power plant. Lake Bl#Latin Small Letter A With Ring Above#sj#Latin Small Letter O With Stroke# located at a higher elevation could be used as upstream reservoir to store water pumped from Lake Suldalsvatn. This report describes results of a study investigating changes in temperature and current distribution in Lake Suldalsvatn under pumped-storage regime. The 3D-hydrodynamic model GEMSS was used to calculate flow velocity, water level fluctuations, and water temperature for two different pumped-storage scenarios. The results of simulations show that intense vertical mixing through the water column is expected during operation of a pumped-storage power plant, leading to colder temperature in the downstream river Suldalsl#Latin Small Letter A With Ring Above#gen during summer and autumn. In addition strong currents appear next to the pumped-storage plant.(author)

  16. Modelling catchment hydrological responses in a Himalayan Lake as a function of changing land use and land cover

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Bazigha Badar; Shakil A Romshoo; M A Khan

    2013-04-01

    In this paper, we evaluate the impact of changing land use/land cover (LULC) on the hydrological processes in Dal lake catchment of Kashmir Himalayas by integrating remote sensing, simulation modeling and extensive field observations. Over the years, various anthropogenic pressures in the lake catchment have significantly altered the land system, impairing, \\texttit {inter-alia}, sustained biotic communities and water quality of the lake. The primary objective of this paper was to help a better understanding of the LULC change, its driving forces and the overall impact on the hydrological response patterns. Multi-sensor and multi-temporal satellite data for 1992 and 2005 was used for determining the spatio-temporal dynamics of the lake catchment. Geographic Information System (GIS) based simulation model namely Generalized Watershed Loading Function (GWLF) was used to model the hydrological processes under the LULC conditions. We discuss spatio-temporal variations in LULC and identify factors contributing to these variations and analyze the corresponding impacts of the change on the hydrological processes like runoff, erosion and sedimentation. The simulated results on the hydrological responses reveal that depletion of the vegetation cover in the study area and increase in impervious and bare surface cover due to anthropogenic interventions are the primary reasons for the increased runoff, erosion and sediment discharges in the Dal lake catchment. This study concludes that LULC change in the catchment is a major concern that has disrupted the ecological stability and functioning of the Dal lake ecosystem.

  17. Modelling the growth of tambaqui, Colossoma macropomum (Cuvier, 1816) in floodplain lakes: model selection and multimodel inference.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costa, L R F; Barthem, R B; Albernaz, A L; Bittencourt, M M; Villacorta-Corrêa, M A

    2013-05-01

    The tambaqui, Colossoma macropomum, is one of the most commercially valuable Amazonian fish species, and in the floodplains of the region, they are caught in both rivers and lakes. Most growth studies on this species to date have adjusted only one growth model, the von Bertalanffy, without considering its possible uncertainties. In this study, four different models (von Bertalanffy, Logistic, Gompertz and the general model of Schnüte-Richards) were adjusted to a data set of fish caught within lakes from the middle Solimões River. These models were adjusted by non-linear equations, using the sample size of each age class as its weight. The adjustment evaluation of each model was based on the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), the variation of AIC between the models (Δi) and the evidence weights (wi). Both the Logistic (Δi = 0.0) and Gompertz (Δi = 1.12) models were supported by the data, but neither of them was clearly superior (wi, respectively 52.44 and 29.95%). Thus, we propose the use of an averaged-model to estimate the asymptotic length (L∞). The averaged-model, based on Logistic and Gompertz models, resulted in an estimate of L∞=90.36, indicating that the tambaqui would take approximately 25 years to reach average size. PMID:23917568

  18. A coupled two-dimensional hydrodynamic and terrestrial input model to simulate CO2 diffusive emissions from lake systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Wu

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Most lakes worldwide are supersaturated with carbon dioxide (CO2 and consequently act as atmospheric net sources. Since CO2 is a major greenhouse gas (GHG, the accurate estimation of CO2 exchanges at air/water interfaces of aquatic ecosystems is vital in quantifying the carbon budget of aquatic ecosystems overall. To date, lacustrine CO2 emissions are poorly understood, and lake carbon source proportions remain controversial, largely due to a lack of integration between aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems. In this paper a new process-based model (TRIPLEX-Aquatic is introduced incorporating both terrestrial inputs and aquatic biogeochemical processes to estimate diffusive emissions of CO2 from lake systems. The model was built from a two-dimensional hydrological and water quality model coupled with a new lacustrine CO2 diffusive flux model. For calibration and validation purposes, two years of data collected in the field from two small boreal oligotrophic lakes located in Québec (Canada were used to parameterize and test the model by comparing simulations with observations for both hydrodynamic and carbon process accuracy. Model simulations were accordant with field measurements in both calibration and verification. Consequently, the TRIPLEX-Aquatic model was used to estimate the annual mean CO2 diffusive flux and predict terrestrial dissolved organic carbon (DOC impacts on the CO2 budget for both lakes. Results show a significant fraction of the CO2 diffusive flux (~30–45% from lakes was primarily attributable to the input and mineralization of terrestrial DOC, which indicated terrestrial organic matter was the key player in the diffusive flux of CO2 from oligotropical lake systems in Québec, Canada.

  19. Thermal processes of thermokarst lakes in the continuous permafrost zone of northern Siberia - observations and modeling (Lena River Delta, Siberia)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boike, J.; Georgi, C.; Kirilin, G.; Muster, S.; Abramova, K.; Fedorova, I.; Chetverova, A.; Grigoriev, M.; Bornemann, N.; Langer, M.

    2015-10-01

    Thermokarst lakes are typical features of the northern permafrost ecosystems, and play an important role in the thermal exchange between atmosphere and subsurface. The objective of this study is to describe the main thermal processes of the lakes and to quantify the heat exchange with the underlying sediments. The thermal regimes of five lakes located within the continuous permafrost zone of northern Siberia (Lena River Delta) were investigated using hourly water temperature and water level records covering a 3-year period (2009-2012), together with bathymetric survey data. The lakes included thermokarst lakes located on Holocene river terraces that may be connected to Lena River water during spring flooding, and a thermokarst lake located on deposits of the Pleistocene Ice Complex. Lakes were covered by ice up to 2 m thick that persisted for more than 7 months of the year, from October until about mid-June. Lake-bottom temperatures increased at the start of the ice-covered period due to upward-directed heat flux from the underlying thawed sediment. Prior to ice break-up, solar radiation effectively warmed the water beneath the ice cover and induced convective mixing. Ice break-up started at the beginning of June and lasted until the middle or end of June. Mixing occurred within the entire water column from the start of ice break-up and continued during the ice-free periods, as confirmed by the Wedderburn numbers, a quantitative measure of the balance between wind mixing and stratification that is important for describing the biogeochemical cycles of lakes. The lake thermal regime was modeled numerically using the FLake model. The model demonstrated good agreement with observations with regard to the mean lake temperature, with a good reproduction of the summer stratification during the ice-free period, but poor agreement during the ice-covered period. Modeled sensitivity to lake depth demonstrated that lakes in this climatic zone with mean depths > 5 m develop

  20. Which processes dominate the uncertainties in the modelling of the transfer of radionuclides in lake ecosystems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    There are several processes governing the transfer of radionuclides in the aquatic environment. These processes are usually lumped together into specific parameters describing those processes, such as distribution coefficients and bioaccumulation factors. One can conclude from the B3 scenario that the differences in results were explained more by difference in the selection of parameter values than they were by differences in assumed lake type or model structure. The parameters contributing most to the uncertainty in model predictions were the distribution coefficient between water and sediment and the fish bioaccumulation factor. In a site specific assessment it may be possible to limit the level of consideration necessary for each process according to lake type, the chemical and physical characteristics of the radionuclides released. In the B5 scenario it was found that no new processes were identified in spite of the site specific data given. However most users changed their model according to the new information given. The A5 scenario showed that the predictions were in fairly good agreement with the observed values. Other results from this study are the importance of including resuspension, chemical form. Predictions of concentration of cesium in fish were performed by applying a constant bioaccumulation factor approach or a dynamic modelling approach. It showed that it was necessary to apply the dynamic modelling to be able to calculate the initial concentration in fish. This was also discussed in Scenario B3 and thus has been verified in Scenario A5. (3 refs., 10 figs.)

  1. Hydrologic history of Lake Tana, Ethiopia: insights from hydrogen isotopes in lipids and models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schefuß, E.; Castaneda, I. S.; Schouten, S.; Herold, M.; Lohmann, G.; Marshall, M. H.; Lamb, H. F.

    2009-04-01

    To investigate hydrologic changes in eastern North Africa since the Last Glacial, we analysed hydrogen isotope compositions of terrestrial plant lipids from samples of core 03TL3 taken in the center of Lake Tana, Ethiopia. Lake Tana is located at 1840 meters altitude in the Ethiopian highlands and the source of the Blue Nile. Under present-day conditions, the eastern North African highlands only receive seasonal rainfall when the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone is in its northernmost position during boreal summer. Previous investigations indicated that Lake Tana desiccated at ca. 17,000 years ago (Heinrich event 1) [1]. Compound-specific hydrogen isotope analyses of plant-wax derived n-alkanes with a high Carbon Preference Index reveal large variations (-80 to -155 permil VSMOW). Heaviest hydrogen isotope compositions, suggesting most arid conditions, were detected in sediments from 15,700 years ago. Following desiccation, the lake was reduced to a shallow, central swamp with strong evaporation. Lowest hydrogen isotope compositions, suggesting most humid conditions, were detected for the period associated with the Younger Dryas (ca. 12,000 years ago). These data are in contrast to seismic data, which suggest a lake level regression during this phase [1]. Transport of previously deposited sediments from shallow, near-shore lake areas to the central coring site is a possible explanation for this discrepancy. For the Holocene, in contrast, no evidence for re-deposition of sediments is detected. From 5,200 years ago towards the present, hydrogen isotope compositions increased by about 20 permil. This isotopic change is compared to results from atmospheric isotope modelling. A General Circulation Model (ECHAM4) equipped with an isotope tracer module to directly simulate 18O and deuterium in precipitation was used to generate maps of monthly rainfall amounts and isotope compositions [2]. Calculations were done for the pre-industrial and the mid-Holocene period. Boundary

  2. On Spatially Explicit Models of Epidemic and Endemic Cholera: The Haiti and Lake Kivu Case Studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rinaldo, A.; Bertuzzo, E.; Mari, L.; Finger, F.; Casagrandi, R.; Gatto, M.; Rodriguez-Iturbe, I.

    2014-12-01

    The first part of the Lecture deals with the predictive ability of mechanistic models for the Haitian cholera epidemic. Predictive models of epidemic cholera need to resolve at suitable aggregation levels spatial data pertaining to local communities, epidemiological records, hydrologic drivers, waterways, patterns of human mobility and proxies of exposure rates. A formal model comparison framework provides a quantitative assessment of the explanatory and predictive abilities of various model settings with different spatial aggregation levels. Intensive computations and objective model comparisons show that parsimonious spatially explicit models accounting for spatial connections have superior explanatory power than spatially disconnected ones for short-to intermediate calibration windows. In general, spatially connected models show better predictive ability than disconnected ones. We suggest limits and validity of the various approaches and discuss the pathway towards the development of case-specific predictive tools in the context of emergency management. The second part deals with approaches suitable to describe patterns of endemic cholera. Cholera outbreaks have been reported in the Democratic Republic of the Congo since the 1970s. Here we employ a spatially explicit, inhomogeneous Markov chain model to describe cholera incidence in eight health zones on the shore of lake Kivu. Remotely sensed datasets of chlorophyll a concentration in the lake, precipitation and indices of global climate anomalies are used as environmental drivers in addition to baseline seasonality. The effect of human mobility is also modelled mechanistically. We test several models on a multi-year dataset of reported cholera cases. Fourteen models, accounting for different environmental drivers, are selected in calibration. Among these, the one accounting for seasonality, El Nino Southern Oscillation, precipitation and human mobility outperforms the others in cross-validation.

  3. Transport modelling in the natural analogue study of the Cigar Lake uranium deposit (Saskatchewan, Canada)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Jinson; Yu, Ji-Wei; Neretnieks, Ivars

    1996-02-01

    A near-field release model is developed both conceptually and mathematically. The model is tested against known helium release from the Cigar Lake uranium ore deposit. The release and transport of various aqueous species (including some radionuclides) in the deposit are studied by using this model. The uranium release rate predicted by the model is extremely low, which is consistent with field observations. In modelling the release of three other radionuclides ( 3H, 14C and 36Cl), the in situ generation and decay are taken into account. The measured concentration gradients of hydrogen was used to estimate the net rate of radiolysis. The simultaneously formed oxidising species are found in sulphates formed by oxidation of sulphides. There is a good agreement of the estimated rate of formation of the reducing component hydrogen and the oxidising component as found in the sulphate.

  4. Modeling fish health to inform research and management: Renibacterium salmoninarum dynamics in Lake Michigan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fenichel, Eli P; Tsao, Jean I; Jones, Michael L

    2009-04-01

    Little is known about the interaction between fish pathogens and managed freshwater fish populations. We develop a model of chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tschawytscha)-Renibacterium salmoninarum (Rs) dynamics based on free-swimming Lake Michigan fish by synthesizing population and epidemiological theory. Using the model, we expose critical uncertainties about the system, identify opportunities for efficient and insightful data collection, and pose testable hypotheses. Our simulation results suggest that hatcheries potentially play an important role in Lake Michigan Rs dynamics, and understanding vertical transmission will be critical for quantifying this role. Our results also show that disease-mediated responses to chinook salmon density need to be considered when evaluating management actions. Related to this, a better understanding of the stock-recruitment relationship and natural mortality rates for wild-spawned fish and the impact of hatchery stocking on recruitment is required. Finally, to further develop models capable of assisting fishery management, fish health surveys ought to be integrated with stock assessment. This is the first time a host-pathogen modeling framework has been applied to managed, freshwater ecosystems, and we suggest that such an approach should be used more frequently to inform other emerging and chronic fish health issues. PMID:19425436

  5. OSIRIS observations of a tongue of NOx in the lower stratosphere at the Antarctic vortex edge: comparison with a high-resolution simulation from the Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    An optical spectrograph and infrared imager system (OSIRIS) aboard the Odin satellite measures limb-scattered sunlight in the 280 to 810 nm range. This paper addressed the challenge of interpreting nitrogen dioxide (NO2) profile observations in the polar lower stratosphere. Interpretations of these profile observations can be facilitated by first converting the measurements to NOx using a photochemical model in order to compare directly with simulated NOx from a 3-dimensional chemical transport model such as the Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) model. In this study, GEM was used to simulate a tongue of NOx observed by OSIRIS as it circulated inside the Antarctic vortex edge. The objective was to clarify one of several OSIRIS observations of enhanced lower stratospheric NO2 in the Antarctic in early austral spring. Another objective was to demonstrate the variability in lower stratospheric NOx at polar latitudes due to dynamical processes. Selected NOx profiles of the Antarctic lower stratosphere inferred from OSIRIS NO2 observations were presented from the austral spring of 2003. A tongue of NOx at 100 hPa was observed, with a concentration typical of the middle stratosphere. GEM simulations revealed that this small-scale tongue of NOx-rich air descended into the lower stratosphere. The tongue was formed as a result of a Rossby wave breaking, transporting NOx from the pole, where larger concentrations had recently appeared, to the edge of the vortex. A detailed illustration of the 3-dimensional structure of the breaking wave was also presented. 17 refs., 1 tab., 10 figs

  6. Ecosystem modelling of carbon, nutrients and radionuclides in lake Eckarfjaerden, Sweden

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    During the next few years, the Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co (SKB) perform site investigations at two sites in Sweden for a future underground repository of spent nuclear fuel. For the safety assessment of the repository, methods based on systems and landscape ecology was developed to understand the radionuclide flow at the site using site-specific data. In this part of the project a mechanistic mass-balance model for carbon and nutrients between the components of the Lake Eckarfjaerden was developed. The lake has been thoroughly monitored for water chemistry, biota, geo-morphometry and water flows etc. to enable site-specific process-oriented dose modelling. The modelling of carbon and nutrients was based on ecosystem processes such as primary production, respiration and consumption. C-14 was modelled in proportion to the circulation of non-radioactive carbon in the ecosystem, whereas the modelling of other radionuclides included two radionuclide specific mechanisms in addition to the ecological processes. The radionuclide uptake by plants was modelled with an uptake function based on conventional uptake factors related to the primary production rate of the plants. The transfer of radionuclides from plants to animals in the ecosystem was modelled in proportion to the consumption rate of the grazer/predator, the concentration in the plant/prey and a specific radionuclide excretion rate related to the rate of carbon and nutrients excreted. The results were compared with traditional dose assessment models. We believe that this method has a large potential to be used either directly in assessment modelling or to produce site-specific transfer factors for more conventional models, which is especially valuable when future changes of the environment needs to be taken into account. (author)

  7. Non-steady state modeling of arsenic diagenesis in lake sediments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Couture, Raoul-Marie; Shafei, Babak; Van Cappellen, Philippe; Tessier, André; Gobeil, Charles

    2010-01-01

    A one-dimensional reactive transport model describing the coupled biogeochemical cycling of As, C, O, Fe, and S was used to interpret an extensive geochemical sediment (As, Fe, S, (210)Pb, (137)Cs, C(org)) and pore water (As, Fe, SO(4)(2-), SigmaS(-II) and pH) data set collected in the perennially oxygenated basin of an oligotrophic lake. Historical variations in atmospheric deposition of As and SO(4)(2-) were explicitly included as upper boundary conditions in the model calculations. The results show that the depth profile of sediment-bound As reflects both the past changes in As deposition and the diagenetic redistribution of As among the Fe(III) oxyhydroxide and Fe(II) sulfide pools. The model-predicted benthic release of dissolved As to the water column peaks 26 years after the maximum anthropogenic As input to the lake, which occurred around 1950. Two major environmental forcings of the benthic recycling of As are the organic matter degradation in the sediment and the atmospheric sulfate deposition to the lake. More oxidizing conditions associated with lower organic matter degradation rates yield a greater abundance of Fe(III) oxyhydroxides in the topmost sediment, which act as a barrier to pore water As. Variations in sulfate availability have more complex effects on benthic As remobilization, since sulfide produced by sulfate reduction may enhance both the uptake of dissolved As through the precipitation of Fe(II) sulfides and the release of dissolved As through the reductive dissolution of Fe(III) oxyhydroxides. PMID:19957997

  8. Application of potassium chloride to a Chernobyl-contaminated lake. Modelling the dynamics of radiocaesium in an aquatic ecosystem and decontamination of fish

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This study tests a whole-lake experiment to reduce the bioaccumulation of radiocaesium (137Cs) in fish in lakes contaminated by the Chernobyl accident. In many lakes in the Chernobyl contaminated areas, radiocaesium activity concentrations in fish are still significantly higher (up to 100 times in some species) than acceptable limits for human consumption. Estimates of the long-term rate of decline of 137Cs in fish in these regions, in the absence of countermeasures, show that radioactivity in fish in some lakes may remain above acceptable consumption limits for a further 50-100 years from the present date. In February 1998 we applied 15 t of potassium chloride to Lake Svyatoe, Kostiukovichy. The addition of potassium chloride fertilizer to the lake resulted in a decrease in activity concentration of 137Cs to approximately 40% of pre-countermeasure values in a number of different fish species. In contrast to Lake Svyatoe, 137Cs activity concentrations in fish from four control lakes showed no systematic decrease over the study period. Simplified models for transfers of 137Cs in lakes successfully 'blind' predicted the changes in 137Cs in water and fish resulting from this major alteration of the potassium concentration of the lake. The experiment represents the first test of a predictive model for the dynamics of radiocaesium in response to a major perturbation in potassium (its major competitor ion) in a whole lake ecosystem

  9. Modeling glacier beds in the Austrian Alps: How many lakes will form in future?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koehler, Dominik; Geilhausen, Martin; Linsbauer, Andreas

    2014-05-01

    Glacial retreat exposes landscapes with relief characteristics greatly differing from the former ice covered surfaces. If glacial retreat exposes natural basins capable of forming proglacial lakes, then the downstream hydrologic and geomorphic systems in such catchments will be significantly altered due to discharge modifications, sediment trapping, decoupling effects and long term sediment storage (e.g. Geilhausen et al. 2013). Further implications are related to hydropower management, tourism and natural hazards. Consequently, sound knowledge of present day glacier beds ("proglacial zones of tomorrow") and in particular the total number, locations and characteristics of overdeepenings are of importance. For Austria, however, this important information about significant future changes of high alpine regions is yet missing. An interdisciplinary research project is currently in preparation to close this gap. This paper presents results of a pilot study. We used a novel GIS-based approach (GlabTop, cf. Linsbauer et al. 2012) to compute approximate glacier beds in the Austrian Alps. GlabTop ('Glacier bed Topography') is based on an empirical relation between average basal shear stress and elevation range of individual glaciers and makes use of digital elevation models (DEM), glacier outlines and branch lines (i.e. a set of lines covering all important glacier branches). DEMs and glacier outlines were derived from the Austrian glacier inventory (1998) and branch lines were manually digitized. The inventory includes 911 glaciers of which 876 (96%) were considered and 35 were excluded due to size restrictions ( 0.01 km²) with the potential of forming proglacial lakes when glacier retreat reveals the bed. The total area and volume of all overdeepenings is approx. 10 km² and 236 Mio m³ respectively and 33 lakes will be larger than 1 km³. A total glacier volume of 16 ± 5 km³ with an average ice thickness of 36 ± 11 m was calculated for 1998. Comparisons with

  10. Simulating the mass balance and salinity of Arctic and Antarctic sea ice. 1. Model description and validation

    OpenAIRE

    Vancoppenolle, M.; Fichefet, T.; Goosse, H.; S. Bouillon; Madec, G.; Maqueda, M. A. M.

    2009-01-01

    This paper is the first part of a twofold contribution dedicated to the new version of the Louvain-la-Neuve sea ice model LIM3. In this part, LIM3 is described and its results arc, compared with observations. LIM3 is a C-grid dynamic-thermodynamic model, including the representation of the subgrid-scale distributions of ice thickness, enthalpy, salinity and age. Brine entrapment and drainage as well as brine impact on ice thermodynamics are explicitly included. LIM3 is embedded into the ocean...

  11. Physical processes of thermokarst lakes in the continuous permafrost zone of northern Siberia - observations and modeling (Lena River Delta, Siberia)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boike, J.; Georgi, C.; Kirilin, G.; Muster, S.; Abramova, K.; Fedorova, I.; Chetverova, A.; Grigoriev, M.; Bornemann, N.; Langer, M.

    2015-04-01

    The thermal regimes of five lakes located within the continuous permafrost zone of northern Siberia (Lena River Delta) have been investigated using hourly water temperature and water level records covering a three year period (2009-2012), together with bathymetric survey data. The lakes included thermokarst lakes located on Holocene river terraces that may be connected to Lena River water during spring flooding, and a thermokarst lake located on deposits of the Pleistocene Ice Complex. The data were used for numerical modeling with FLake software, and also to determine the physical indices of the lakes. The lakes vary in area, depths and volumes. The winter thermal regime is characterized by an ice cover up to 2 m thick that survives for more than 7 months of the year, from October until about mid-June. Lake-bottom temperatures increase at the start of the ice-covered period due to upward-directed heat flux from the underlying thawed sediment. The effects of solar radiation return prior to ice break-up, effectively warming the water beneath the ice cover and inducing convective mixing. Ice break-up starts the beginning of June and takes until the middle or end of June for completion. Mixing occurs within the entire water column from the start of ice break-up and continues during the ice-free periods, as confirmed by the Wedderburn numbers. Some of the lakes located closest to the Lena River are subjected to varying levels of spring flooding with river water, on an annual basis. Numerical modeling using FLake software indicates that the vertical heat flux across the bottom sediment tends towards an annual mean of zero, with maximum downward fluxes of about 5 W m-2 in summer and with heat released back into the water column at a~rate of less than 1 W m-2 during the ice-covered period. The lakes are shown to be efficient heat absorbers and effectively distribute the heat through mixing. Monthly bottom water temperatures during the ice-free period range up to 15

  12. Levels, fluxes and time trends of persistent organic pollutants in Lake Thun, Switzerland: Combining trace analysis and multimedia modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Levels, mass fluxes, and time trends of polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) in Lake Thun, a peri-Alpine lake, are investigated. We present measurements of PBDEs and PCBs in air, lake water, lake sediment, and tributary water. These measurements are combined with a multimedia fate model, based on site-specific environmental parameters from the lake catchment. Measured loadings of PBDEs and PCBs in air and tributaries were used to drive the model. The model satisfactorily reproduces PBDE and PCB congener patterns in water and sediment, but it tends to yield concentrations in water below the measurements and concentrations in sediment exceeding the measurements. A sensitivity analysis reveals that partitioning of PBDEs and PCBs between the aqueous dissolved phase and suspended particulate matter in the water column strongly affects the model results, in particular the concentrations in water and sediment. For lower-brominated PBDEs, approximately 70% and 30% of input into the lake stems from atmospheric deposition and from tributaries, respectively. For heavier PBDEs and all PCBs, rivers appear to deliver the major load (64-92%). Waste water effluents are of minor importance. 50-90% of the total input is buried in the permanent sediment. Sediment burial makes PBDEs and PCBs less available for recycling in the environment, and reduces concentrations in the outflowing river. If use of deca-BDE increases in the future, levels in Lake Thun will follow the same trend. If the use and resulting environmental emissions decrease, concentrations in water will rapidly decline, according to our calculations, while sediment levels will decrease at a considerably slower rate.

  13. Levels, fluxes and time trends of persistent organic pollutants in Lake Thun, Switzerland: combining trace analysis and multimedia modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bogdal, Christian; Scheringer, Martin; Schmid, Peter; Bläuenstein, Markus; Kohler, Martin; Hungerbühler, Konrad

    2010-08-01

    Levels, mass fluxes, and time trends of polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) in Lake Thun, a peri-Alpine lake, are investigated. We present measurements of PBDEs and PCBs in air, lake water, lake sediment, and tributary water. These measurements are combined with a multimedia fate model, based on site-specific environmental parameters from the lake catchment. Measured loadings of PBDEs and PCBs in air and tributaries were used to drive the model. The model satisfactorily reproduces PBDE and PCB congener patterns in water and sediment, but it tends to yield concentrations in water below the measurements and concentrations in sediment exceeding the measurements. A sensitivity analysis reveals that partitioning of PBDEs and PCBs between the aqueous dissolved phase and suspended particulate matter in the water column strongly affects the model results, in particular the concentrations in water and sediment. For lower-brominated PBDEs, approximately 70% and 30% of input into the lake stems from atmospheric deposition and from tributaries, respectively. For heavier PBDEs and all PCBs, rivers appear to deliver the major load (64-92%). Waste water effluents are of minor importance. 50-90% of the total input is buried in the permanent sediment. Sediment burial makes PBDEs and PCBs less available for recycling in the environment, and reduces concentrations in the outflowing river. If use of deca-BDE increases in the future, levels in Lake Thun will follow the same trend. If the use and resulting environmental emissions decrease, concentrations in water will rapidly decline, according to our calculations, while sediment levels will decrease at a considerably slower rate. PMID:20597144

  14. Levels, fluxes and time trends of persistent organic pollutants in Lake Thun, Switzerland: Combining trace analysis and multimedia modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bogdal, Christian [Institute for Chemical and Bioengineering, ETH Zurich, Wolfgang-Pauli-Strasse 10, CH-8093 Zuerich (Switzerland); Empa, Swiss Federal Laboratories for Materials Testing and Research, Uberlandstrasse 129, CH-8600 Duebendorf (Switzerland); Scheringer, Martin, E-mail: scheringer@chem.ethz.ch [Institute for Chemical and Bioengineering, ETH Zurich, Wolfgang-Pauli-Strasse 10, CH-8093 Zuerich (Switzerland); Schmid, Peter [Empa, Swiss Federal Laboratories for Materials Testing and Research, Uberlandstrasse 129, CH-8600 Duebendorf (Switzerland); Blaeuenstein, Markus [Institute for Chemical and Bioengineering, ETH Zurich, Wolfgang-Pauli-Strasse 10, CH-8093 Zuerich (Switzerland); Kohler, Martin [State Food Law Enforcement Authority, Werkhofstrasse 5, CH-4509 Solothurn (Switzerland); Hungerbuehler, Konrad [Institute for Chemical and Bioengineering, ETH Zurich, Wolfgang-Pauli-Strasse 10, CH-8093 Zuerich (Switzerland)

    2010-08-01

    Levels, mass fluxes, and time trends of polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) in Lake Thun, a peri-Alpine lake, are investigated. We present measurements of PBDEs and PCBs in air, lake water, lake sediment, and tributary water. These measurements are combined with a multimedia fate model, based on site-specific environmental parameters from the lake catchment. Measured loadings of PBDEs and PCBs in air and tributaries were used to drive the model. The model satisfactorily reproduces PBDE and PCB congener patterns in water and sediment, but it tends to yield concentrations in water below the measurements and concentrations in sediment exceeding the measurements. A sensitivity analysis reveals that partitioning of PBDEs and PCBs between the aqueous dissolved phase and suspended particulate matter in the water column strongly affects the model results, in particular the concentrations in water and sediment. For lower-brominated PBDEs, approximately 70% and 30% of input into the lake stems from atmospheric deposition and from tributaries, respectively. For heavier PBDEs and all PCBs, rivers appear to deliver the major load (64-92%). Waste water effluents are of minor importance. 50-90% of the total input is buried in the permanent sediment. Sediment burial makes PBDEs and PCBs less available for recycling in the environment, and reduces concentrations in the outflowing river. If use of deca-BDE increases in the future, levels in Lake Thun will follow the same trend. If the use and resulting environmental emissions decrease, concentrations in water will rapidly decline, according to our calculations, while sediment levels will decrease at a considerably slower rate.

  15. Development of a Model to Assess Masking Potential for Marine Mammals by the Use of Air Guns in Antarctic Waters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wittekind, Dietrich; Tougaard, Jakob; Stilz, Peter; Dähne, Michael; Clark, Christopher W; Lucke, Klaus; von Benda-Beckmann, Sander; Ainslie, Michael A; Siebert, Ursula

    2016-01-01

    We estimated the long-range effects of air gun array noise on marine mammal communication ranges in the Southern Ocean. Air gun impulses are subject to significant distortion during propagation, potentially resulting in a quasi-continuous sound. Propagation modeling to estimate the received waveform was conducted. A leaky integrator was used as a hearing model to assess communication masking in three species due to intermittent/continuous air gun sounds. Air gun noise is most probably changing from impulse to continuous noise between 1,000 and 2,000 km from the source, leading to a reduced communication range for, e.g., blue and fin whales up to 2,000 km from the source. PMID:26611093

  16. A revised tsunami source model for the 1707 Hoei earthquake and simulation of tsunami inundation of Ryujin Lake, Kyushu, Japan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Furumura, Takashi; Imai, Kentaro; Maeda, Takuto

    2011-02-01

    Based on many recent findings such as those for geodetic data from Japan's GEONET nationwide GPS network and geological investigations of a tsunami-inundated Ryujin Lake in Kyushu, we present a revised source rupture model for the great 1707 Hoei earthquake that occurred in the Nankai Trough off southwestern Japan. The source rupture area of the new Hoei earthquake source model extends further, to the Hyuga-nada, more than 70 km beyond the currently accepted location at the westernmost end of Shikoku. Numerical simulation of the tsunami using a new source rupture model for the Hoei earthquake explains the distribution of the very high tsunami observed along the Pacific coast from western Shikoku to Kyushu more consistently. A simulation of the tsunami runup into Ryujin Lake using the onshore tsunami estimated by the new model demonstrates a tsunami inundation process; inflow and outflow speeds affect transport and deposition of sand in the lake and around the channel connecting it to the sea. Tsunamis from the 684 Tenmu, 1361 Shokei, and 1707 Hoei earthquakes deposited sand in Ryujin Lake and around the channel connecting it to the sea, but lesser tsunamis from other earthquakes were unable to reach Ryujin Lake. This irregular behavior suggests that in addition to the regular Nankai Trough earthquake cycle of 100-150 years, there is a hyperearthquake cycle of 300-500 years. These greater earthquakes produce the largest tsunamis from western Shikoku to Kyushu.

  17. Long-range transport of pollutants to the Falkland Islands and Antarctica: evidence from lake sediment fly ash particle records.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rose, Neil L; Jones, Vivienne J; Noon, Philippa E; Hodgson, Dominic A; Flower, Roger J; Appleby, Peter G

    2012-09-18

    (210)Pb-dated sediment cores taken from lakes on the Falkland Islands, the South Orkney Islands, and the Larsemann Hills in Antarctica were analyzed for fly ash particles to assess the temporal record of contamination from high temperature fossil-fuel combustion sources. Very low, but detectable, levels were observed in the Antarctic lakes. In the Falkland Island lakes, the record of fly ash extended back to the late-19th century and the scale of contamination was considerably higher. These data, in combination with meteorological, modeling, and fossil-fuel consumption data, indicate most likely sources are in South America, probably Chile and Brazil. Other southern hemisphere sources, notably from Australia, contribute to a background contamination and were more important historically. Comparing southern polar data with the equivalent from the northern hemisphere emphasizes the difference in contamination of the two circumpolar regions, with the Falkland Island sites only having a level of contamination similar to that of northern Svalbard. PMID:22891669

  18. Investigating the Effect of Recruitment Variability on Length-Based Recruitment Indices for Antarctic Krill Using an Individual-Based Population Dynamics Model

    OpenAIRE

    Stéphane Thanassekos; Cox, Martin J.; Keith Reid

    2014-01-01

    Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba; herein krill) is monitored as part of an on-going fisheries observer program that collects length-frequency data. A krill feedback management programme is currently being developed, and as part of this development, the utility of data-derived indices describing population level processes is being assessed. To date, however, little work has been carried out on the selection of optimum recruitment indices and it has not been possible to assess the performance...

  19. A general approach to transform a lake model for one radionuclide (radiocesium) to another (radiostrontium) and critical model tests using data for four Ural lakes contaminated by the fallout from the Kyshtym accident in 1957

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper presents results of a model test carried out within the framework of the COMETES project (EU). The aim of the work was to change the structure of the MOIRA lake model for radiocesium so that it can be applied more generally for, in principle, all types of radionuclides and heavy metals. This general lake model is used within the MOIRA decision support system (DSS; MOIRA and COMETES are acronyms for EU-projects). The model is based on a set of differential equations and a specific modelling structure. It incorporates all important fluxes to, from and within lakes in a general manner. Yet the model is driven by a minimum of variables accessible from standard maps and monitoring programs. The model can be separated into two parts, a general part with equations applicable for all types of water pollutants and a substance-specific part. This model has previously been validated for 137Cs from many lakes covering a wide domain and yielded excellent predictive power. The alterations discussed in this work are meant to be general and radiostrontium is used as a typical element. Radiostrontium is known to be more mobile than radiocesium and all abiotic parts of the model handling fixation and mobility have been altered. The new model for 90Sr has been critically tested using data from four lakes heavily contaminated with 90Sr from the Kyshtym accident in the Southern Urals, Russia, using empirical data from a period from 1958 to 1995 for 90Sr in fish (here goldfish), water and sediments

  20. Testing the stages model in the adaptive radiation of cichlid fishes in East African Lake Tanganyika.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muschick, Moritz; Nosil, Patrik; Roesti, Marius; Dittmann, Marie Theres; Harmon, Luke; Salzburger, Walter

    2014-11-22

    Adaptive radiation (AR) is a key process in the origin of organismal diversity. However, the evolution of trait disparity in connection with ecological specialization is still poorly understood. Available models for vertebrate ARs predict that diversification occurs in the form of temporal stages driven by different selective forces. Here, we investigate the AR of cichlid fishes in East African Lake Tanganyika and use macroevolutionary model fitting to evaluate whether diversification happened in temporal stages. Six trait complexes, for which we also provide evidence of their adaptiveness, are analysed with comparative methods: body shape, pharyngeal jaw shape, gill raker traits, gut length, brain weight and body coloration. Overall, we do not find strong evidence for the 'stages model' of AR. However, our results suggest that trophic traits diversify earlier than traits implicated in macrohabitat adaptation and that sexual communication traits (i.e. coloration) diversify late in the radiation. PMID:25274371

  1. MODELING WAVE-INDUCED ENTRAINMENT OF MUD IN NEWNANS LAKE, FLORIDA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Many shallow lakes in the southeastern US are eutrophic, and as such, the water quality in these lakes is of concern to state and federal environmental regulatory agencies. Some of these lakes have been classified as impaired with one or more nutrients being the stressor. For the...

  2. Specific activity and concentration model applied to cesium-137 movement in a eutrophic lake

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A linear systems-analysis model which simulates time-dependent dynamics of specific activity and concentration of radiocesium in lake ecosystems was applied to a shallow, eutrophic lake that had received a pulse input of 137Cs. Best estimates of transfer coefficients for abiotic compartments (sediment, interstitial water, and water) and macrophyte compartment which control mass balance of cesium in water were determined by tuning our initial estimates of the transfer coefficients to observed data on 137Cs concentrations and contents of these compartments. In most cases, the optimized transfer coefficients of the abiotic compartments were not greatly different from our independently-derived initial estimates, and the simulations for optimized coefficients were close to those based on initial estimates. The simulations of 137Cs concentration in water predicted by the optimized transfer coefficients were used to derive 137Cs kinetics in biota other than macrophytes. In general, model simulations were close to concentrations observed in the biota. The agreement between 137Cs concentrations and simulations in bottom invertebrates supported our assumption that bottom sediments are not a major source of Cs to the biota. (U.S.)

  3. Environmental contamination in Antarctic ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bargagli, R

    2008-08-01

    Although the remote continent of Antarctica is perceived as the symbol of the last great wilderness, the human presence in the Southern Ocean and the continent began in the early 1900s for hunting, fishing and exploration, and many invasive plant and animal species have been deliberately introduced in several sub-Antarctic islands. Over the last 50 years, the development of research and tourism have locally affected terrestrial and marine coastal ecosystems through fuel combustion (for transportation and energy production), accidental oil spills, waste incineration and sewage. Although natural "barriers" such as oceanic and atmospheric circulation protect Antarctica from lower latitude water and air masses, available data on concentrations of metals, pesticides and other persistent pollutants in air, snow, mosses, lichens and marine organisms show that most persistent contaminants in the Antarctic environment are transported from other continents in the Southern Hemisphere. At present, levels of most contaminants in Antarctic organisms are lower than those in related species from other remote regions, except for the natural accumulation of Cd and Hg in several marine organisms and especially in albatrosses and petrels. The concentrations of organic pollutants in the eggs of an opportunistic top predator such as the south polar skua are close to those that may cause adverse health effects. Population growth and industrial development in several countries of the Southern Hemisphere are changing the global pattern of persistent anthropogenic contaminants and new classes of chemicals have already been detected in the Antarctic environment. Although the Protocol on Environmental Protection to the Antarctic Treaty provides strict guidelines for the protection of the Antarctic environment and establishes obligations for all human activity in the continent and the Southern Ocean, global warming, population growth and industrial development in countries of the Southern

  4. Evaluation of the lake model FLake over a coastal lagoon during the THAUMEX field campaign

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patrick Le Moigne

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available The THAUMEX measurement campaign, carried out during the summer of 2011 in Thau, a coastal lagoon in southern France, focused on episodes of marine breezes. During the campaign, three intensive observation periods (IOPs were conducted and a large amount of data were collected. Subsequently, standalone modelling using the FLake lake model was used, first to assess the surface temperature and the surface energy balance, and second to determine the energy budget of the water column at the measurement site. Surface fluxes were validated against in situ measurements, and it was determined that heat exchanges are dominated by evaporation. We also demonstrated that the model was sensitive to the light extinction coefficient at Thau, due to its shallowness and clarity nature. A heat balance was calculated, and the inclusion of a radiative temperature has improved it, especially by reducing the nocturnal evaporation. The FLake lake model was then evaluated in three-dimensional numerical simulations performed with the Meso-NH mesoscale model, in order to assess the changing structure of the boundary layer above the lagoon during the IOPs more accurately. We highlighted the first time ever when Meso-NH and FLake were coupled and proved the ability of the coupled system to forecast a complex phenomenon but also the importance of the use of the FLake model was pointed out. We demonstrated the impact of the lagoon and more precisely the Lido, a sandy strip of land between the lagoon and the Mediterranean Sea, on the vertical distribution of turbulent kinetic energy, evidence of the turbulence induced by the breeze. This study showed the complementarities between standalone and coupled simulations.

  5. Response of alpine lakes and soils to changes in acid deposition: the MAGIC model applied to the Tatra Mountain region, Slovakia-Poland

    OpenAIRE

    Veselý, Josef; Evžen TUCHLÍK; Petra ŠENÁKOVÁ; Vladimír MAJER; Kopáček, Jiří; Hardekopf, David

    2004-01-01

    A dynamic process-based model of surface water acidification, MAGIC, was applied to 31 representative alpine lakes in the Tatra Mountains (~50% of all alpine lakes >0.3 ha in the lake-district). The model was calibrated to observed lake chemistry for the period 1980-2002. Surface water and soil chemistry were reconstructed from 1860 to 2002, given estimates of historical acid deposition, and forecast to 2020 based on the reduction in sulphur and nitrogen emissions presupposed by the Gothenbur...

  6. Towers for Antarctic Telescopes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hammerschlag, R. H.; Bettonvil, F. C. M.; Jägers, A. P. L.; Nielsen, G.

    To take advantage of the exceptional seeing above the boundary layer on Antarctic sites, a high-resolution telescope must be mounted on a support tower. An open transparent tower of framework minimizes the upward temperature-disturbed airflow. A typical minimum height is 30m. The tower platform has to be extremely stable against wind-induced rotational motions, which have to be less than fractions of an arc second, unusually small from a mechanical engineering viewpoint. In a traditional structure, structural deflections result in angular deflections of the telescope platform, which introduce tip and tilt motions in the telescope. However, a structure that is designed to deflect with parallel motion relative to the horizontal plane will undergo solely translation deflections in the telescope platform and thus will not degrade the image. The use of a parallel motion structure has been effectively demonstrated in the design of the 15-m tower for the Dutch Open Telescope (DOT) on La Palma. Special framework geometries are developed, which make it possible to construct high towers in stories having platforms with extreme stability against wind-induced tilt. These geometric solutions lead to constructions, being no more massive than a normal steel framework carrying the same load. Consequently, these lightweight towers are well suited to difficult sites as on Antarctica. A geometry with 4 stories has been worked out.

  7. A niche model to predict Microcystis bloom decline in Chaohu Lake, China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG Zhicong; LI Zhongjie; LI Dunhai

    2012-01-01

    Cyanobacterial blooms occur frequently in lakes due to eutrophication.Although a number of models have been proposed to forecast algal blooms,a good and applicable method is still lacking.This study explored a simple and effective mathematical-ecological model to evaluate the growth status and predict the population dynamics of Microcystis blooms.In this study,phytoplankton were collected and identified from 8 sampling sites in Chaohu Lake every month from July to October,2010.The niche breadth and niche overlap of common species were calculated using standard equations,and the potential relative growth rates of Microcystis were calculated as a weighted-value of niche overlap.In July,the potential relative growth rate was 2.79 (a.u.,arbitrary units) but then rapidly declined in the following months to -3.99 a.u.in September.A significant correlation (R=0.998,P<0.01) was found in the model between the net-increase in biomass of Microcystis in the field and the predicted values calculated by the niche model,we concluded that the niche model is suitable for forecasting the dynamics of Microcystis blooms.Redundancy analysis indicated that decreases in water temperature,dissolved oxygen and total dissolved phosphorus might be major factors underlying bloom decline.Based on the theory of community succession being caused by resource competition,the growth and decline of blooms can be predicted from a community structure.This may provide a basis for early warning and control of algal blooms.

  8. Application of a littoral Baltic Sea resuspension model in a eutrophic lake-factors behind differences in the model performance

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Jukka Horppila n; Joni Kaitaranta; Leena Nurminen

    2015-01-01

    abstract The performance of a linear resuspension model developed in the Baltic Sea was studied in the conditions of a eutrophic Lake Kirkkojärvi (southern Finland). The model predicts sediment resuspen-sion rate using data on vegetation cover, wind and sediment quality as an input. When the original model coefficients were used, the model resulted on average 1.8 fold overestimation of the resuspension rate in Kirkkojärvi. This was due to lower fetch and water depth, and less consolidated sediment of Kirkkojärvi compared with the Baltic Sea study site. When coefficients were adjusted for Kirkkojärvi, the model predictions were 1.1 times the measured values. Due to the continuous resuspension, the effect of the wind term in the model was so low that it could be excluded without affecting the accuracy of model predictions. The study demonstrated that in a shallow eutrophic lake accurate predictions on resuspension rate can be made using only data on sediment quality and on factors inhibiting resuspension (macrophytes). The model residuals increased with increasing resuspension rate and high rates of resuspension were underestimated by the model. Due to the fluffy sediment in Kirkkojärvi, erosion of sediment increases more than linear with increasing shear stress. Thus in such conditions, even better predictions could be achieved by a non-linear resuspension model.&2015 Published by Elsevier B.V. on behalf of International Research and Training Centre on Erosion and Sedimentation/the World Association for Sedimentation and Erosion Research.

  9. Evolution and ecology of antarctic sponges

    OpenAIRE

    Vargas Ramirez, Sergio

    2012-01-01

    Sponges are abundant and species-rich in Antarctic waters, and play important roles in the benthic ecosystems of the continent. The taxonomy of Antarctic sponges is, to some extent, well established, yet the phylogenetic relationships of this fauna remain unknown. Here, the first contributions to the knowledge of the evolution of Antarctic sponges are presented. A molecular phylogeny for the common Antarctic shelf glass sponge genus Rossella is provided. Based on nuclear and mitochondrial mar...

  10. Effects of Dispersal-Related Factors on Species Distribution Model Accuracy for Boreal Lake Ecosystems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simon Hallstan

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Species distribution modeling is used in applied ecology; for example in predicting the consequences of global change. However, questions still remain about the robustness of model predictions. Here we estimate effects of landscape spatial configuration and organism flight ability—factors related to dispersal—on the accuracy of species distribution models. Distribution models were developed for 129 phytoplankton taxa, 164 littoral invertebrate taxa and 44 profundal invertebrate taxa sampled in 105 Swedish lakes, using six different modeling techniques (generalized linear models (GLM, multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS, classification tree analysis (CTA, mixture discriminant analysis (MDA, generalized boosting models (GBM and random forests (RF. Model accuracy was not affected by dispersal ability (i.e., invertebrate flight ability, but the accuracy of phytoplankton assemblage predictions and, to a lesser extent, littoral invertebrate assemblages were related to ecosystem size and connectivity. Although no general pattern across species or spatial configuration was evident from our study, we recommend that dispersal and spatial configuration of ecosystems should be considered when developing species distribution models.

  11. The spatial extent and dynamics of the Antarctic Cold Reversal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pedro, Joel B.; Bostock, Helen C.; Bitz, Cecilia M.; He, Feng; Vandergoes, Marcus J.; Steig, Eric J.; Chase, Brian M.; Krause, Claire E.; Rasmussen, Sune O.; Markle, Bradley R.; Cortese, Giuseppe

    2016-01-01

    Antarctic ice cores show that a millennial-scale cooling event, the Antarctic Cold Reversal (14,700 to 13,000 years ago), interrupted the last deglaciation. The Antarctic Cold Reversal coincides with the Bølling-Allerød warm stage in the North Atlantic, providing an example of the inter-hemispheric coupling of abrupt climate change generally referred to as the bipolar seesaw. However, the ocean-atmosphere dynamics governing this coupling are debated. Here we examine the extent and expression of the Antarctic Cold Reversal in the Southern Hemisphere using a synthesis of 84 palaeoclimate records. We find that the cooling is strongest in the South Atlantic and all regions south of 40° S. At the same time, the terrestrial tropics and subtropics show abrupt hydrologic variations that are significantly correlated with North Atlantic climate changes. Our transient global climate model simulations indicate that the observed extent of Antarctic Cold Reversal cooling can be explained by enhanced northward ocean heat transport from the South to North Atlantic, amplified by the expansion and thickening of sea ice in the Southern Ocean. The hydrologic variations at lower latitudes result from an opposing enhancement of southward heat transport in the atmosphere mediated by the Hadley circulation. Our findings reconcile previous arguments about the relative dominance of ocean and atmospheric heat transports in inter-hemispheric coupling, demonstrating that the spatial pattern of past millennial-scale climate change reflects the superposition of both.

  12. The Antarctic ozone depletion caused by Erebus volcano gas emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zuev, V. V.; Zueva, N. E.; Savelieva, E. S.; Gerasimov, V. V.

    2015-12-01

    Heterogeneous chemical reactions releasing photochemically active molecular chlorine play a key role in Antarctic stratospheric ozone destruction, resulting in the Antarctic ozone hole. Hydrogen chloride (HCl) is one of the principal components in these reactions on the surfaces of polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs). PSCs form during polar nights at extremely low temperatures (lower than -78 °C) mainly on sulfuric acid (H2SO4) aerosols, acting as condensation nuclei and formed from sulfur dioxide (SO2). However, the cause of HCl and H2SO4 high concentrations in the Antarctic stratosphere, leading to considerable springtime ozone depletion, is still not clear. Based on the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data over the last 35 years and by using the NOAA HYSPLIT trajectory model, we show that Erebus volcano gas emissions (including HCl and SO2) can reach the Antarctic stratosphere via high-latitude cyclones with the annual average probability Pbarann. of at least ∼0.235 (23.5%). Depending on Erebus activity, this corresponds to additional annual stratospheric HCl mass of 1.0-14.3 kilotons (kt) and SO2 mass of 1.4-19.7 kt. Thus, Erebus volcano is the natural and powerful source of additional stratospheric HCl and SO2, and hence, the cause of the Antarctic ozone depletion, together with man-made chlorofluorocarbons.

  13. Dynamics Change of Honghu Lake's Water Surface Area and Its Driving Force Analysis Based on Remote Sensing Technique and TOPMODEL model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Honghu Lake is the largest freshwater lake in the Hubei Province of China. This paper introduces a remote sensing approach to monitor the lake's water surface area dynamics over the last 40 years by using multi-temporal remote sensing imagery including Landsat and HJ-1. Meanwhile, the daily precipitation and evaporation data provided by Honghu meteorological station since 1970s were also collected and used to analyze the influence of climate change factors. The typical situation for precipitation was selected as an input into the TOPMODEL model to simulate the hydrological process in Honghu Lake. The simulation result with the water surface area extracted from remote sensing imagery was analyzed. This experiment shows the precipitation and timing of precipitation effects changes in the lake with remote sensing data and it showed the potential of using TOPMODEL model to analyze the combined hydrological process in Honghu Lake

  14. Thermodynamic modeling of the behavior of Uranium and Arsenic in mineralized Shaazgai-Nuur Lake (Northwest Mongolia)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaskova, O. L.; Isupov, V. P.; Vladimirov, A. G.; Shvartsev, S. L.; Kolpakova, M. N.

    2015-11-01

    Highly mineralized closed lakes on the territory of ore regions of Mongolia are of special interest in relation to the search for nonconventional sources of metals. Water of soda Shaazgai-Nuur Lake contains ~1 mg/L U, and the content of the undesirable admixture of As is up to 300 μg/L. Uranium and Arsenic speciation in solution and in the bottom sediments of the lake was estimated using thermodynamic modeling, and a method of their separation was suggested. Calculation of the models of sorption of these elements by goethite and calcite showed that at pH 9.4 typical of natural water it could be effective only at a high concentration of FeOOH sorbent. In this case, at pH 8 (the area of U sorption), As may be removed by simple filtering of solutions from the suspension upon additional coagulation.

  15. Long-term efficiency of lake restoration by chemical phosphorus precipitation: Scenario analysis with a phosphorus balance model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hupfer, Michael; Reitzel, Kasper; Kleeberg, Andreas; Lewandowski, Jörg

    2016-06-15

    An artificial increase of phosphorus (P) retention in lakes with a long residence time and/or a large mobile sediment P pool by adding P binding chemicals can drastically shorten the time these lakes require to reach water quality targets. Suitable tools to optimize timing and extent of external and internal measures are lacking. The one-box model, a mass balance tool for predicting the P trend in the water under different management options was applied to highly eutrophic Lake Arendsee (a = 5.14 km(2), zmax = 49 m), Germany. Mass developments of blue green algae and increasing hypolimnetic oxygen deficiencies are urgent reasons for restoring Lake Arendsee. Detailed studies of P cycling and scenario analyses with the one-box model led to the following conclusions: i) immediate improvement of the trophic state is only possible by in-lake P inactivation because of the long water residence time (56 years); ii) a gradual external P load reduction, even if the effect is delayed, will assure the sustainability of the scheduled Al application beyond one decade; iii) a twofold precipitation reduces the risk of failure compared to a singular application with an overdose related to the relevant internal P pools. PMID:26188421

  16. A Global Lake Ecological Observatory Network (GLEON) for synthesising high-frequency sensor data for validation of deterministic ecological models

    Science.gov (United States)

    David, Hamilton P; Carey, Cayelan C; Arvola, Lauri; Arzberger, Peter; Brewer, Carol A.; Cole, Jon J; Gaiser, Evelyn; Hanson, Paul C.; Ibelings, Bas W; Jennings, Eleanor; Kratz, Tim K; Lin, Fang-Pang; McBride, Christopher G; de Motta Marques, David; Muraoka, Kohji; Nishri, Ami; Qin, Boqiang; Read, Jordan S.; Rose, Kevin C.; Ryder, Elizabeth; Weathers, Kathleen C.; Zhu, Guangwei; Trolle, Dennis; Brookes, Justin D

    2014-01-01

    A Global Lake Ecological Observatory Network (GLEON; www.gleon.org) has formed to provide a coordinated response to the need for scientific understanding of lake processes, utilising technological advances available from autonomous sensors. The organisation embraces a grassroots approach to engage researchers from varying disciplines, sites spanning geographic and ecological gradients, and novel sensor and cyberinfrastructure to synthesise high-frequency lake data at scales ranging from local to global. The high-frequency data provide a platform to rigorously validate process- based ecological models because model simulation time steps are better aligned with sensor measurements than with lower-frequency, manual samples. Two case studies from Trout Bog, Wisconsin, USA, and Lake Rotoehu, North Island, New Zealand, are presented to demonstrate that in the past, ecological model outputs (e.g., temperature, chlorophyll) have been relatively poorly validated based on a limited number of directly comparable measurements, both in time and space. The case studies demonstrate some of the difficulties of mapping sensor measurements directly to model state variable outputs as well as the opportunities to use deviations between sensor measurements and model simulations to better inform process understanding. Well-validated ecological models provide a mechanism to extrapolate high-frequency sensor data in space and time, thereby potentially creating a fully 3-dimensional simulation of key variables of interest.

  17. Late Holocene tephrochronology of the northern Antarctic Peninsula

    Science.gov (United States)

    Björck, Svante; Sandgren, Per; Zale, Rolf

    1991-11-01

    Andesitic and basaltic andesitic tephra layers are abundant in Holocene deposits from the Antarctic Peninsula. Visually discernible tephra horizons occur in three lakes on Livingston Island. Tephra in two other lakes and in a moss bank on Elephant Island, with very low ash concentrations, were detected magnetically. Deception Island is the most likely volcanic source for the tephra. With direct 14C dating, age/depth curves, and cross-correlations at least 14 tephra horizons dating to between ca. 4700 and 250 yr B.P. were identified and now form the basis for a preliminary regional tephrochronology that will be a valuable dating tool for investigating the Holocene climatic history of Antarctica.

  18. Developing and implementing the use of predictive models for estimating water quality at Great Lakes beaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Francy, Donna S.; Brady, Amie M.G.; Carvin, Rebecca B.; Corsi, Steven R.; Fuller, Lori M.; Harrison, John H.; Hayhurst, Brett A.; Lant, Jeremiah; Nevers, Meredith B.; Terrio, Paul J.; Zimmerman, Tammy M.

    2013-01-01

    Predictive models have been used at beaches to improve the timeliness and accuracy of recreational water-quality assessments over the most common current approach to water-quality monitoring, which relies on culturing fecal-indicator bacteria such as Escherichia coli (E. coli.). Beach-specific predictive models use environmental and water-quality variables that are easily and quickly measured as surrogates to estimate concentrations of fecal-indicator bacteria or to provide the probability that a State recreational water-quality standard will be exceeded. When predictive models are used for beach closure or advisory decisions, they are referred to as “nowcasts.” During the recreational seasons of 2010-12, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with 23 local and State agencies, worked to improve existing nowcasts at 4 beaches, validate predictive models at another 38 beaches, and collect data for predictive-model development at 7 beaches throughout the Great Lakes. This report summarizes efforts to collect data and develop predictive models by multiple agencies and to compile existing information on the beaches and beach-monitoring programs into one comprehensive report. Local agencies measured E. coli concentrations and variables expected to affect E. coli concentrations such as wave height, turbidity, water temperature, and numbers of birds at the time of sampling. In addition to these field measurements, equipment was installed by the USGS or local agencies at or near several beaches to collect water-quality and metrological measurements in near real time, including nearshore buoys, weather stations, and tributary staff gages and monitors. The USGS worked with local agencies to retrieve data from existing sources either manually or by use of tools designed specifically to compile and process data for predictive-model development. Predictive models were developed by use of linear regression and (or) partial least squares techniques for 42 beaches

  19. Implementation of local grid refinement (LGR) for the Lake Michigan Basin regional groundwater-flow model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoard, C.J.

    2010-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey is evaluating water availability and use within the Great Lakes Basin. This is a pilot effort to develop new techniques and methods to aid in the assessment of water availability. As part of the pilot program, a regional groundwater-flow model for the Lake Michigan Basin was developed using SEAWAT-2000. The regional model was used as a framework for assessing local-scale water availability through grid-refinement techniques. Two grid-refinement techniques, telescopic mesh refinement and local grid refinement, were used to illustrate the capability of the regional model to evaluate local-scale problems. An intermediate model was developed in central Michigan spanning an area of 454 square miles (mi2) using telescopic mesh refinement. Within the intermediate model, a smaller local model covering an area of 21.7 mi2 was developed and simulated using local grid refinement. Recharge was distributed in space and time using a daily output from a modified Thornthwaite-Mather soil-water-balance method. The soil-water-balance method derived recharge estimates from temperature and precipitation data output from an atmosphere-ocean coupled general-circulation model. The particular atmosphere-ocean coupled general-circulation model used, simulated climate change caused by high global greenhouse-gas emissions to the atmosphere. The surface-water network simulated in the regional model was refined and simulated using a streamflow-routing package for MODFLOW. The refined models were used to demonstrate streamflow depletion and potential climate change using five scenarios. The streamflow-depletion scenarios include (1) natural conditions (no pumping), (2) a pumping well near a stream; the well is screened in surficial glacial deposits, (3) a pumping well near a stream; the well is screened in deeper glacial deposits, and (4) a pumping well near a stream; the well is open to a deep bedrock aquifer. Results indicated that a range of 59 to 50 percent of the

  20. Water age prediction and its potential impacts on water quality using a hydrodynamic model for Poyang Lake, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qi, Hengda; Lu, Jianzhong; Chen, Xiaoling; Sauvage, Sabine; Sanchez-Pérez, José-Miguel

    2016-07-01

    The water quality in Poyang Lake, the largest freshwater lake in China, has deteriorated steadily in recent years and local governments have made efforts to manage the potential eutrophication. In order to investigate the transport and retention processes of dissolved substances, the hydrodynamic model, Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code (EFDC) was applied by using the concept of water age. The simulated results showed agreement with the measured water level, discharge, and inundation area. The water age in Poyang Lake was significantly influenced by the variations of hydrological conditions. The annual analysis revealed that the largest averaged water age was observed during the wet year (2010) with 28.4 days at Hukou, the junction of the Yangtze River and Poyang Lake. In the normal season (April), the youngest age with 9.1 days was found. The spatial distribution of water quality derived from the remote sensing images suggested that a higher chlorophyll-a concentration, lower turbidity, and smaller water age in the eastern area of Poyang Lake might threaten the regional aquatic health. The particle tracking simulation reproduced the trajectories of the dissolved substances, indicating that the water mass with greater nutrient loading would further lead to potential environmental problems in the east lake. Moreover, the water transfer ability would be weakened due to dam (Poyang Project) construction resulting in the rising water levels in periods of regulation. Generally, this study quantified an indicative transport timescale, which could help to better understand the complex hydrodynamic processes and manage wetland ecosystems similar to Poyang Lake. PMID:27023820

  1. A Deterministic Model for Predicting Hourly Dissolved Oxygen Change: Development and Application to a Shallow Eutrophic Lake

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhen Xu

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Predicting dissolved oxygen (DO change at a high frequency in water bodies is useful for water quality management. In this study, we developed a deterministic model that can predict hourly DO change in a water body with high frequency weather parameters. The study was conducted during August 2008–July 2009 in a eutrophic shallow lake in Louisiana, USA. An environment monitoring buoy was deployed to record DO, water temperature and chlorophyll-a concentration at 15-min intervals, and hourly weather data including air temperature, precipitation, wind speed, relative humidity, and solar radiation were gathered from a nearby weather station. These data formed a foundation for developing a DO model that predicts rapid change of source and sink components including photosynthesis, re-aeration, respiration, and oxygen consumption by sediments. We then applied the model to a studied shallow lake that is widely representative of lake water conditions in the subtropical southern United States. Overall, the model successfully simulated high-time fluctuation of DO in the studied lake, showing good predictability for extreme algal bloom events. However, a knowledge gap still exists in accurately quantifying oxygen source produced by photosynthesis in high frequency DO modeling.

  2. Water masses, ocean fronts, and the structure of Antarctic seabird communities: Putting the eastern Bellingshausen Sea in perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ribic, Christine A.; Ainley, David G.; Glenn Ford, R.; Fraser, William R.; Tynan, Cynthia T.; Woehler, Eric J.

    2011-07-01

    Waters off the western Antarctic Peninsula (i.e., the eastern Bellingshausen Sea) are unusually complex owing to the convergence of several major fronts. Determining the relative influence of fronts on occurrence patterns of top-trophic species in that area, therefore, has been challenging. In one of the few ocean-wide seabird data syntheses, in this case for the Southern Ocean, we analyzed ample, previously collected cruise data, Antarctic-wide, to determine seabird species assemblages and quantitative relationships to fronts as a way to provide context to the long-term Palmer LTER and the winter Southern Ocean GLOBEC studies in the eastern Bellingshausen Sea. Fronts investigated during both winter (April-September) and summer (October-March) were the southern boundary of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC), which separates the High Antarctic from the Low Antarctic water mass, and within which are embedded the marginal ice zone and Antarctic Shelf Break Front; and the Antarctic Polar Front, which separates the Low Antarctic and the Subantarctic water masses. We used clustering to determine species' groupings with water masses, and generalized additive models to relate species' densities, biomass and diversity to distance to respective fronts. Antarctic-wide, in both periods, highest seabird densities and lowest species diversity were found in the High Antarctic water mass. In the eastern Bellingshausen, seabird density in the High Antarctic water mass was lower (as low as half that of winter) than found in other Antarctic regions. During winter, Antarctic-wide, two significant species groups were evident: one dominated by Adélie penguins ( Pygoscelis adeliae) (High Antarctic water mass) and the other by petrels and prions (no differentiation among water masses); in eastern Bellingshausen waters during winter, the one significant species group was composed of species from both Antarctic-wide groups. In summer, Antarctic-wide, a High Antarctic group dominated

  3. Modelling radionuclide behaviour in deep lakes of the Italian Alpine region: Seasonality effects and comparison with deep volcanic lakes of Central Italy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The present report describes the results of research carried out following the Chernobyl accident to analyse the behaviour of radionuclides in some Italian lakes. The following lacustrine systems were examined: volcanic lakes Bolsena, Bracciano and Vico (central Italy) and lake Como (north Italy) whose drainage area is located in the Alpine region. The average residence times of 137Cs in water of volcanic lakes are much higher than the radionuclide residence time in lake Como. As quantitative analyses can show, the differences between the mean water retention times of the examined lakes do not suffice to explain this occurrence. Some peculiar seasonal effects (thermal stratification of water and ice/snow melting in lake drainage area) and high sedimentation rates are responsible of 137Cs efficient removal from water of lake Como

  4. Modelling of soil depth and lake sediments. An application of the GeoEditor at the Forsmark site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This report aims at describing the modelled soil depth according to three layers with different hydrogeological properties at the Forsmark site, based on available data from boreholes, observation points, seismic data and radar profiles. For the lakes in the area, the sediment has been modelled according to six layers of the most common deposits in the area. The peat layer at Stenroesmossen has also been visualized. The program used in the modelling of soil depths is the GeoEditor, which is an ArcView3.3-extension. The input data used in the model consist of 1,532 points based on seismic measurements, 31 profiles of interpreted ground penetrating radar data, 119 boreholes and 472 observation points. The western and south eastern part of the area has a low data density. In the southern parts the data density with respect to estimated bedrock elevation is low. Observation points in this area are generally not very deep and do not describe the actual bedrock elevation. They do, however, describe the minimum soil depth at each location. A detailed topographical DEM, bathymetry and map of Quaternary deposits were also used. The model is based on a three-layer-principle where each layer is assumed to have similar hydrological characteristics. The uppermost layer, Z1, is characterized by the impact from surface processes, roots and biological activity. The bottom layer, Z3, is characterized by contact with the bedrock. The middle layer, Z2, is assumed to have different hydraulic qualities than Z1 and Z3. The lake sediments have been modelled according to six classes of typical deposits. The modelled soil depths show a relatively high bedrock elevation and thus small total soil depth in the major part of the area. The median soil depth has been calculated to 1.9 m, based on model results in areas with higher data density. The maximum modelled soil depth is about 13 m, just north of Lake Stocksjoen. Generally, the sediment layers in the lakes of the area consists of a

  5. Antarctic Ozone Hole, 2000

    Science.gov (United States)

    2002-01-01

    Each spring the ozone layer over Antarctica nearly disappears, forming a 'hole' over the entire continent. The hole is created by the interaction of some man-made chemicals-freon, for example-with Antarctica's unique weather patterns and extremely cold temperatures. Ozone in the stratosphere absorbs ultraviolet radiation from the sun, thereby protecting living things. Since the ozone hole was discovered many of the chemicals that destroy ozone have been banned, but they will remain in the atmosphere for decades. In 2000, the ozone hole grew quicker than usual and exceptionally large. By the first week in September the hole was the largest ever-11.4 million square miles. The top image shows the average total column ozone values over Antarctica for September 2000. (Total column ozone is the amount of ozone from the ground to the top of the atmosphere. A relatively typical measurement of 300 Dobson Units is equivalent to a layer of ozone 0.12 inches thick on the Earth's surface. Levels below 220 Dobson Units are considered to be significant ozone depletion.) The record-breaking hole is likely the result of lower than average ozone levels during the Antarctic fall and winter, and exceptionally cold temperatures. In October, however (bottom image), the hole shrank dramatically, much more quickly than usual. By the end of October, the hole was only one-third of it's previous size. In a typical year, the ozone hole does not collapse until the end of November. NASA scientists were surprised by this early shrinking and speculate it is related to the region's weather. Global ozone levels are measured by the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS). For more information about ozone, read the Earth Observatory's ozone fact sheet, view global ozone data and see these ozone images. Images by Greg Shirah, NASA GSFC Scientific Visualization Studio.

  6. Numerical Simulation Of Hydrothermal Processes In Lake Drukshiai: 5. The Two-Phase Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The state of two-phase 'liquid-gas' flow has been modeled numerically by the three-dimensional method of a complex research of heat and mass transfer. This allows examining the interaction of some transfer processes in a natural cooling basin (Lake Drukshiai): the power and direction of the wind, the variable density of the water, the heat conduction and heat transfer coefficients of the water-air interface. The combined effect of these natural actions determines the heat amount that the basin is able to dissipate to the surrounding atmospheric medium in thermal equilibrium (no change in the mean water temperature). This article presents a number of most widely used expressions for vertical and horizontal heat transfer coefficients. Basing on the stream velocity and mean temperature profiles measured in the cooling pond, as well as on then-time variations, suggestions are made that the mixing rate at the water surface is caused by the natural space-time variation of the wind and can be described by the value of the eddy viscosity coefficient - 1 m2/s (in numerical modeling 0.9-1.3 m2/s were used). The wind influence on the surface of the lake, according to the experimental data, is 1-3% of the mean wind velocity. The model is applied for a moderate wind, approximately 1-5 m/s of the mean wind velocity. A comparison of the experimental and numerical results showed a qualitative agreement. For a better quantitative approximation it is necessary to have more boundary conditions variable with time and to solve the unsteady set equations for transfer processes. (author)

  7. Sea level change and environmental evolution of coastal lakes in Vestfol d Hills, Antarctica

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2001-01-01

    Ecological end palaeoecological studies were carried out in a series of lakes in the Vestfold Hills (68°38'S, 78°06'E) on eastern Antarctic continent. Dynamics types of the lakes in environmental geomorphology and physic-chemistry, as well as features of biological community structures in different lakes were analyzed. Marine macro- and micro-fossils collected from the terraces and beaches surrounding these lakes and determined in 14C radiocarbon ages to be the Late Pleistocene, were used as evidences tc show the evolutionary processes of the lakes after sea level changes and transgressions since 18000 a B.P.. Basic modals of evolution for the lakes given in the paper could be regarded as not only explaining the history of environmental and ecological changes in VH lakes, and also reflecting of local environmental evolution in Antarctic region and global climate changes from past to present time.

  8. Hydroclimatology of Lake Victoria region using hydrologic model and satellite remote sensing data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. I. Khan

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Study of hydro-climatology at a range of temporal scales is important in understanding and ultimately mitigating the potential severe impacts of hydrological extreme events such as floods and droughts. Using daily in-situ data over the last two decades combined with the recently available multiple-years satellite remote sensing data, we analyzed and simulated, with a distributed hydrologic model, the hydro-climatology in Nzoia, one of the major contributing sub-basins of Lake Victoria in the East African highlands. The basin, with a semi arid climate, has no sustained base flow contribution to Lake Victoria. The short spell of high discharge showed that rain is the prime cause of floods in the basin. There is only a marginal increase in annual mean discharge over the last 21 years. The 2-, 5- and 10- year peak discharges, for the entire study period showed that more years since the mid 1990's have had high peak discharges despite having relatively less annual rain. The study also presents the hydrologic model calibration and validation results over the Nzoia basin. The spatiotemporal variability of the water cycle components were quantified using a hydrologic model, with in-situ and multi-satellite remote sensing datasets. The model is calibrated using daily observed discharge data for the period between 1985 and 1999, for which model performance is estimated with a Nash Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSCE of 0.87 and 0.23% bias. The model validation showed an error metrics with NSCE of 0.65 and 1.04% bias. Moreover, the hydrologic capability of satellite precipitation (TRMM-3B42 V6 is evaluated. In terms of reconstruction of the water cycle components the spatial distribution and time series of modeling results for precipitation and runoff showed considerable agreement with the monthly model runoff estimates and gauge observations. Runoff values responded to precipitation events that occurred across the catchment during the wet season from March to

  9. Thermal Pollution Mathematical Model. Volume 2: Verification of One-Dimensional Numerical Model at Lake Keowee. [environment impact of thermal discharges from power plants

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, S. S.; Sengupta, S.; Nwadike, E. V.

    1980-01-01

    A one dimensional model for studying the thermal dynamics of cooling lakes was developed and verified. The model is essentially a set of partial differential equations which are solved by finite difference methods. The model includes the effects of variation of area with depth, surface heating due to solar radiation absorbed at the upper layer, and internal heating due to the transmission of solar radiation to the sub-surface layers. The exchange of mechanical energy between the lake and the atmosphere is included through the coupling of thermal diffusivity and wind speed. The effects of discharge and intake by power plants are also included. The numerical model was calibrated by applying it to Cayuga Lake. The model was then verified through a long term simulation using Lake Keowee data base. The comparison between measured and predicted vertical temperature profiles for the nine years is good. The physical limnology of Lake Keowee is presented through a set of graphical representations of the measured data base.

  10. Partial least squares for efficient models of fecal indicator bacteria on Great Lakes beaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brooks, Wesley R.; Fienen, Michael J.; Corsi, Steven R.

    2013-01-01

    At public beaches, it is now common to mitigate the impact of water-borne pathogens by posting a swimmer's advisory when the concentration of fecal indicator bacteria (FIB) exceeds an action threshold. Since culturing the bacteria delays public notification when dangerous conditions exist, regression models are sometimes used to predict the FIB concentration based on readily-available environmental measurements. It is hard to know which environmental parameters are relevant to predicting FIB concentration, and the parameters are usually correlated, which can hurt the predictive power of a regression model. Here the method of partial least squares (PLS) is introduced to automate the regression modeling process. Model selection is reduced to the process of setting a tuning parameter to control the decision threshold that separates predicted exceedances of the standard from predicted non-exceedances. The method is validated by application to four Great Lakes beaches during the summer of 2010. Performance of the PLS models compares favorably to that of the existing state-of-the-art regression models at these four sites.

  11. Forecasting Lake-Effect Snow in the Great Lakes Using NASA Satllite Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cipullo, Michelle; Molthan, Andrew; Shafer, Jackie; Case, Jonathan; Jedlovec, Gary

    2011-01-01

    This slide presentation reviews the forecast of the lake effect snow in the Great Lakes region using models and infrared estimates of Great Lake Surface Temperatures (GLSTs) from the MModerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instrument on Terra and Aqua satellites, and other satellite data. This study analyzes Lake Erie and Lake Ontario which produce storm total snowfall ranged from 8-18 inches off of Lake Ontario and 10-12 inches off of Lake Erie for the areas downwind.

  12. Mixture model of pottery decorations from Lake Chad Basin archaeological sites reveals ancient segregation patterns.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Brien, John D; Lin, Kathryn; MacEachern, Scott

    2016-03-30

    We present a new statistical approach to analysing an extremely common archaeological data type-potsherds-that infers the structure of cultural relationships across a set of excavation units (EUs). This method, applied to data from a set of complex, culturally heterogeneous sites around the Mandara mountains in the Lake Chad Basin, helps elucidate cultural succession through the Neolithic and Iron Age. We show how the approach can be integrated with radiocarbon dates to provide detailed portraits of cultural dynamics and deposition patterns within single EUs. In this context, the analysis supports ancient cultural segregation analogous to historical ethnolinguistic patterning in the region. We conclude with a discussion of the many possible model extensions using other archaeological data types. PMID:27009217

  13. Response of alpine lakes and soils to changes in acid deposition: the MAGIC model applied to the Tatra Mountain region, Slovakia-Poland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Josef VESELÝ

    2004-02-01

    Full Text Available A dynamic process-based model of surface water acidification, MAGIC, was applied to 31 representative alpine lakes in the Tatra Mountains (~50% of all alpine lakes >0.3 ha in the lake-district. The model was calibrated to observed lake chemistry for the period 1980-2002. Surface water and soil chemistry were reconstructed from 1860 to 2002, given estimates of historical acid deposition, and forecast to 2020 based on the reduction in sulphur and nitrogen emissions presupposed by the Gothenburg Protocol. In the 1860s, all lakes were buffered by the carbonate system and only ~6% of lakes had acid neutralising capacity (ANC 50% of the SAA change in sensitive lakes with intermediate weathering rates and little soils (low BC exchangeable capacity and elevated terrestrial export of nitrate and (3 by parallel changes in concentrations of protons and aluminium (each ~20% of the SAA change in extremely sensitive lakes, with the lowest weathering rates and soil base saturation. The full implementation of the Gothenburg Protocol will not be sufficient to allow recovery of the latter group of lakes, which will remain acidified after 2020.

  14. A dynamic hydrological Monte Carlo simulation model to inform decision-making at Lake Toolibin, Western Australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Stuart; Lacey, Peter; Walshe, Terry

    2009-04-01

    Lake Toolibin, an ephemeral lake in the agricultural zone of Western Australia, is under threat from secondary salinity due to land clearance throughout the catchment. The lake is extensively covered with native vegetation and is a Ramsar listed wetland, being one of the few remaining significant migratory bird habitats in the region. Currently, inflow with salinity greater than 1000 mg/L TDS is diverted from the lake in an effort to protect sensitive lakebed vegetation. However, this conservative threshold compromises the frequency and extent of lake inundation, which is essential for bird breeding. It is speculated that relaxing the threshold to 5000 mg/L may pose negligible additional risk to the condition of lakebed vegetation. To characterise the magnitude of improvement in the provision of bird breeding habitat that might be generated by relaxing the threshold, a dynamic water and salt balance model of the lake was developed and implemented using Monte Carlo simulation. Results from best estimate model inputs indicate that relaxation of the threshold increases the likelihood of satisfying habitat requirements by a factor of 9.7. A second-order Monte Carlo analysis incorporating incertitude generated plausible bounds of [2.6, 37.5] around the best estimate for the relative likelihood of satisfying habitat requirements. Parameter-specific sensitivity analyses suggest the availability of habitat is most sensitive to pan evaporation, lower than expected inflow volume, and higher than expected inflow salt concentration. The characterisation of uncertainty associated with environmental variation and incertitude allows managers to make informed risk-weighted decisions. PMID:19114292

  15. Lake Morphometry for NHD Lakes in Ohio Region 5 HUC

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — Lake morphometry metrics are known to influence productivity in lakes and are important for building various types of ecological and environmental models of lentic...

  16. Lake Morphometry for NHD Lakes in Tennessee Region 6 HUC

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — Lake morphometry metrics are known to influence productivity in lakes and are important for building various types of ecological and environmental models of lentic...

  17. Lake Morphometry for NHD Lakes in California Region 18 HUC

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — Lake morphometry metrics are known to influence productivity in lakes and are important for building various types of ecological and environmental models of lentic...

  18. An Antarctic Circumpolar Current driven by surface buoyancy forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hogg, Andrew McC.

    2010-12-01

    Simulations of an idealised, but eddy-resolving, channel model of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) are used to investigate the sensitivity of ACC transport to wind and surface buoyancy forcing. The results are consistent with theoretical predictions of the eddy-saturated limit, where transport is independent of wind stress. In this parameter regime, buoyancy forcing provides the primary control over ACC transport.

  19. Miocene Antarctic Terrestrial Realm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ashworth, A. C.; Lewis, A.; Marchant, D. R.

    2009-12-01

    The discovery of several locations in the Transantarctic Mountains that contain macrofossils and pollen is transforming our understanding of late Cenozoic Antarctica. The most southerly location is on the Beardmore Glacier (85.1°S) about 500 km from the South Pole. The environment was an active glacial margin in which plants, insects and freshwater mollusks inhabited the sand and gravel bars and small lakes on an outwash plain. In addition to leaves and wood of dwarf Nothofagus (Southern Beech) shrubs, achenes of Ranunculus (Buttercup), in situ cushion growth forms of mosses and a vascular plant, the assemblages contains various exoskeletal parts of carabid and curculionid beetles and a cyclorrhaphan fly, the shells of freshwater bivalve and gastropod species and a fish tooth. Initially the deposits were assigned a Pliocene age (3.5 Ma) but a mid- to early Miocene age is more probable (c. 14 - 25 Ma) based on correlation of fossil pollen from the deposits with 39Ar/40Ar dated pollen assemblages from the McMurdo Dry Valleys locations. The oldest location within the Dry Valleys also involved an active ice