WorldWideScience

Sample records for antarctic lakes models

  1. Modeling Antarctic Subglacial Lake Filling and Drainage Cycles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dow, Christine F.; Werder, Mauro A.; Nowicki, Sophie; Walker, Ryan T.

    2016-01-01

    The growth and drainage of active subglacial lakes in Antarctica has previously been inferred from analysis of ice surface altimetry data. We use a subglacial hydrology model applied to a synthetic Antarctic ice stream to examine internal controls on the filling and drainage of subglacial lakes. Our model outputs suggest that the highly constricted subglacial environment of our idealized ice stream, combined with relatively high rates of water flow funneled from a large catchment, can combine to create a system exhibiting slow-moving pressure waves. Over a period of years, the accumulation of water in the ice stream onset region results in a buildup of pressure creating temporary channels, which then evacuate the excess water. This increased flux of water beneath the ice stream drives lake growth. As the water body builds up, it steepens the hydraulic gradient out of the overdeepened lake basin and allows greater flux. Eventually this flux is large enough to melt channels that cause the lake to drain. Lake drainage also depends on the internal hydrological development in the wider system and therefore does not directly correspond to a particular water volume or depth. This creates a highly temporally and spatially variable system, which is of interest for assessing the importance of subglacial lakes in ice stream hydrology and dynamics.

  2. Carbon dynamics modelization and biological community sensitivity to temperature in an oligotrophic freshwater Antarctic lake

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Antonio Villaescusa, Juan; Jorgensen, Sven Erik; Rochera, Carlos

    2016-01-01

    food web. This preliminary model aims to describe part of the carbon dynamics, especially for bacterioplankton and associated factors, in this maritime Antarctic lake highly affected by temperature increase linked to regional warming. To describe the system, the effects of the variation of different...

  3. Antarctic Active Subglacial Lake Inventory from ICESat Altimetry, Version 1

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This data set contains lake boundaries, volume changes, and gridded elevations for 124 active subglacial lakes beneath the Antarctic ice sheet. Lakes were identified...

  4. Development of a Regional Glycerol Dialkyl Glycerol Tetraether (GDGT) - Temperature Calibration for Antarctic and sub-Antarctic Lakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberts, S. J.; Foster, L. C.; Pearson, E. J.; Steve, J.; Hodgson, D.; Saunders, K. M.; Verleyen, E.

    2016-12-01

    Temperature calibration models based on the relative abundances of sedimentary glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers (GDGTs) have been used to reconstruct past temperatures in both marine and terrestrial environments, but have not been widely applied in high latitude environments. This is mainly because the performance of GDGT-temperature calibrations at lower temperatures and GDGT provenance in many lacustrine settings remains uncertain. To address these issues, we examined surface sediments from 32 Antarctic, sub-Antarctic and Southern Chilean lakes. First, we quantified GDGT compositions present and then investigated modern-day environmental controls on GDGT composition. GDGTs were found in all 32 lakes studied. Branched GDGTs (brGDGTs) were dominant in 31 lakes and statistical analyses showed that their composition was strongly correlated with mean summer air temperature (MSAT) rather than pH, conductivity or water depth. Second, we developed the first regional brGDGT-temperature calibration for Antarctic and sub-Antarctic lakes based on four brGDGT compounds (GDGT-Ib, GDGT-II, GDGT-III and GDGT-IIIb). Of these, GDGT-IIIb proved particularly important in cold lacustrine environments. Our brGDGT-Antarctic temperature calibration dataset has an improved statistical performance at low temperatures compared to previous global calibrations (r2=0.83, RMSE=1.45°C, RMSEP-LOO=1.68°C, n=36 samples), highlighting the importance of basing palaeotemperature reconstructions on regional GDGT-temperature calibrations, especially if specific compounds lead to improved model performance. Finally, we applied the new Antarctic brGDGT-temperature calibration to two key lake records from the Antarctic Peninsula and South Georgia. In both, downcore temperature reconstructions show similarities to known Holocene warm periods, providing proof of concept for the new Antarctic calibration model.

  5. Modelling the Antarctic Ice Sheet

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Jens Olaf Pepke; Holm, A.

    2015-01-01

    to sea level high stands during past interglacial periods. A number of AIS models have been developed and applied to try to understand the workings of the AIS and to form a robust basis for future projections of the AIS contribution to sea level change. The recent DCESS (Danish Center for Earth System......The Antarctic ice sheet is a major player in the Earth’s climate system and is by far the largest depository of fresh water on the planet. Ice stored in the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) contains enough water to raise sea level by about 58 m, and ice loss from Antarctica contributed significantly...

  6. Regional pattern of snow characteristics around Antarctic Lake Vostok

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vladimirova, Diana; Ekaykin, Alexey; Popov, Sergey; Shibaev, Yuriy; Kozachek, Anna; Lipenkov, Vladimir

    2015-04-01

    Since 1998 Russian Antarctic Expedition has organized several scientific traverses in the region of subglacial Lake Vostok mainly devoted to the radar echo and seismic sounding of the glacier and water (the results have been published elsewhere). Along with the geophysical studies, a number of glaciological investigations have been carried out: snow pit digging, installation of accumulation stakes, snow sampling to study the stable water isotope content. Here we for the first time present a synthesis of these works and demonstrate a series of maps that characterize the snow density, isotope content and accumulation rate the studied region. A general tendency of the snow accumulation rate and isotope content is a significant increase from south (south-west) to north (north-east) from 35 to 23 mm w.e. per year and from -53,3 ‰ to -57,3 ‰ for delta oxygen-18 respectively, which likely reflects the continental-scale pattern, i.e., increase from inland to the coast. Deuterium excess varies from 11,7 ‰ to 16,3 ‰ is negatively correlated with the isotope content, which is typical for central Antarctica. The snow density demonstrate different pattern: higher values offshore the lake (up to 0,356 g/cm^3), and lower values within the lake's shoreline (lower limit is 0,328 g/cm^3). We suggest that this is related to the katabatic wind activity: very flat nearly horizontal surface of the glacier above the lake is not favorable for the strong winds, which leads to lower surface snow density. Superimposed on the main trend is the regional pattern, namely, curved contour lines in the middle part of the lake. We suggest that it may be related to the local anomalies of the snow drift by wind. Indeed, on the satellite images of the lake one can easily see a snowdrift stretching from the lake's western shore downwind in the middle part of the lake. The isolines of delta oxygen-18 and deuterium excess become perpendicular to each other in the north part of the lake which also

  7. Subsurface imaging reveals a confined aquifer beneath an ice-sealed Antarctic lake

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dugan, H. A.; Doran, P. T.; Tulaczyk, S.

    2015-01-01

    Liquid water oases are rare under extreme cold desert conditions found in the Antarctic McMurdo Dry Valleys. Here we report geophysical results that indicate that Lake Vida, one of the largest lakes in the region, is nearly frozen and underlain by widespread cryoconcentrated brine. A ground...... this zone to be a confined aquifer situated in sediments with a porosity of 23-42%. Discovery of this aquifer suggests that subsurface liquid water may be more pervasive in regions of continuous permafrost than previously thought and may represent an extensive habitat for microbial populations. Key Points...... Geophysical survey finds low resistivities beneath a lake in Antarctic Dry Valleys Liquid brine abundant beneath Antarctic lake Aquifer provides microbial refugium in cold desert environment...

  8. Ciliated protozoa of two antarctic lakes: analysis by quantitative protargol staining and examination of artificial substrates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kepner, R. L. Jr; Wharton, R. A. Jr; Coats, D. W.; Wharton RA, J. r. (Principal Investigator)

    1999-01-01

    Planktonic and artificial substrate-associated ciliates have been identified in two perennially ice-covered antarctic lakes of the McMurdo Dry Valleys. Abundances estimated by quantitative protargol staining ranged from < 5 to 31690 cells l-1, levels that are comparable to those previously obtained using other methods. Nineteen ciliate taxa were identified from these lakes, with the most frequently encountered genera being Plagiocampa, Askenasia, Monodinium, Sphaerophrya and Vorticella. The taxonomic findings compare favorably with those of previous investigators; however four previously unreported genera were observed in both Lakes Fryxell and Hoare. The variability in the depth distributions of ciliates in Lake Fryxell is explained in terms of lake physicochemical properties and ciliate prey distributions, while factors related to temporal succession in the Lake Hoare assemblage remain unexplained. Local marine or temperate zone freshwater habitats are a more likely source than the surrounding dry valleys soils for present ciliate colonists in these lakes. Although the taxonomic uncertainties require further examination, our results suggest that ciliate populations in these antarctic lakes undergo significant fluctuations and are more diverse than was previously recognized.

  9. Development and setting of a time-lapse video camera system for the Antarctic lake observation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sakae Kudoh

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available A submersible video camera system, which aimed to record the growth image of aquatic vegetation in Antarctic lakes for one year, was manufactured. The system consisted of a video camera, a programmable controller unit, a lens-cleaning wiper with a submersible motor, LED lights, and a lithium ion battery unit. Changes of video camera (High Vision System and modification of the lens-cleaning wiper allowed higher sensitivity and clearer recording images compared to the previous submersible video without increasing the power consumption. This system was set on the lake floor in Lake Naga Ike (a tentative name in Skarvsnes in Soya Coast, during the summer activity of the 51th Japanese Antarctic Research Expedition. Interval record of underwater visual image for one year have been started by our diving operation.

  10. Stable water isotopic composition of the Antarctic subglacial Lake Vostok: implications for understanding the lake's hydrology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ekaykin, Alexey A; Lipenkov, Vladimir Y; Kozachek, Anna V; Vladimirova, Diana O

    2016-01-01

    We estimated the stable isotopic composition of water from the subglacial Lake Vostok using two different sets of samples: (1) water frozen on the drill bit immediately after the first lake unsealing and (2) water frozen in the borehole after the unsealing and re-drilled one year later. The most reliable values of the water isotopic composition are: -59.0 ± 0.3 ‰ for oxygen-18, -455 ± 1 ‰ for deuterium and 17 ± 1 ‰ for d-excess. This result is also confirmed by the modelling of isotopic transformations in the water which froze in the borehole, and by a laboratory experiment simulating this process. A comparison of the newly obtained water isotopic composition with that of the lake ice (-56.2 ‰ for oxygen-18, -442.4 ‰ for deuterium and 7.2 ‰ for d-excess) leads to the conclusion that the lake ice is very likely formed in isotopic equilibrium with water. In turn, this means that ice is formed by a slow freezing without formation of frazil ice crystals and/or water pockets. This conclusion agrees well with the observed physical and chemical properties of the lake's accreted ice. However, our estimate of the water's isotopic composition is only valid for the upper water layer and may not be representative for the deeper layers of the lake, so further investigations are required.

  11. Plectolyngbya hodgsonii: a novel filamentous cyanobacterium from Antarctic lakes

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Taton, A.; Wilmotte, A.; Šmarda, J.; Elster, Josef; Komárek, Jiří

    2011-01-01

    Roč. 34, č. 2 (2011), 181-191 ISSN 0722-4060 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA206/05/0253 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z60050516 Keywords : Antarctica * benthos of lake * cyanobacteria Subject RIV: EF - Botanics Impact factor: 1.659, year: 2011

  12. [Near infrared reflectance spectroscopy (NIRS): a novel approach to reconstructing historical changes of primary productivity in Antarctic lake].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Qian-Qian; Liu, Xiao-Dong; Liu, Wen-Qi; Jiang, Shan

    2011-10-01

    Compared with traditional chemical analysis methods, reflectance spectroscopy has the advantages of speed, minimal or no sample preparation, non-destruction, and low cost. In order to explore the potential application of spectroscopy technology in the paleolimnological study on Antarctic lakes, we took a lake sediment core in Mochou Lake at Zhongshan Station of Antarctic, and analyzed the near infrared reflectance spectroscopy (NIRS) data in the sedimentary samples. The results showed that the factor loadings of principal component analysis (PCA) displayed very similar depth-profile change pattern with the S2 index, a reliable proxy for the change in historical lake primary productivity. The correlation analysis showed that the values of PCA factor loading and S2 were correlated significantly, suggesting that it is feasible to infer paleoproductivity changes recorded in Antarctic lakes using NIRS technology. Compared to the traditional method of the trough area between 650 and 700 nm, the authors found that the PCA statistical approach was more accurate for reconstructing the change in historical lake primary productivity. The results reported here demonstrate that reflectance spectroscopy can provide a rapid method for the reconstruction of lake palaeoenviro nmental change in the remote Antarctic regions.

  13. Extensive lake sediment coring survey on Sub-Antarctic Indian Ocean Kerguelen Archipelago (French Austral and Antarctic Lands)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arnaud, Fabien; Fanget, Bernard; Malet, Emmanuel; Poulenard, Jérôme; Støren, Eivind; Leloup, Anouk; Bakke, Jostein; Sabatier, Pierre

    2016-04-01

    Recent paleo-studies revealed climatic southern high latitude climate evolution patterns that are crucial to understand the global climate evolution(1,2). Among others the strength and north-south shifts of westerlies wind appeared to be a key parameter(3). However, virtually no lands are located south of the 45th South parallel between Southern Georgia (60°W) and New Zealand (170°E) precluding the establishment of paleoclimate records of past westerlies dynamics. Located around 50°S and 70°E, lost in the middle of the sub-Antarctic Indian Ocean, Kerguelen archipelago is a major, geomorphologically complex, land-mass that is covered by hundreds lakes of various sizes. It hence offers a unique opportunity to reconstruct past climate and environment dynamics in a region where virtually nothing is known about it, except the remarkable recent reconstructions based on a Lateglacial peatbog sequence(4). During the 2014-2015 austral summer, a French-Norwegian team led the very first extensive lake sediment coring survey on Kerguelen Archipelago under the umbrella of the PALAS program supported by the French Polar Institute (IPEV). Two main areas were investigated: i) the southwest of the mainland, so-called Golfe du Morbihan, where glaciers are currently absent and ii) the northernmost Kerguelen mainland peninsula so-called Loranchet, where cirque glaciers are still present. This double-target strategy aims at reconstructing various independent indirect records of precipitation (glacier advance, flood dynamics) and wind speed (marine spray chemical species, wind-borne terrigenous input) to tackle the Holocene climate variability. Despite particularly harsh climate conditions and difficult logistics matters, we were able to core 6 lake sediment sites: 5 in Golfe du Morbihan and one in Loranchet peninsula. Among them two sequences taken in the 4km-long Lake Armor using a UWITEC re-entry piston coring system by 20 and 100m water-depth (6 and 7m-long, respectively). One

  14. Radarsat Antarctic Mapping Project Digital Elevation Model, Version 2

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The high-resolution Radarsat Antarctic Mapping Project (RAMP) Digital Elevation Model (DEM) combines topographic data from a variety of sources to provide consistent...

  15. Tardigrade eggs and exuviae in Antarctic lake sediments: insights into Holocene dynamics and origins of the fauna

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sandra J. MCINNES

    2007-09-01

    Full Text Available The preservation of tardigrade eggs and exuviae in Antarctic lake sediments provided an opportunity to assess post-glacial colonisation and Holocene tardigrade dynamics on the southern continent. Tardigrade eggs were recovered from five lakes, two from the maritime Antarctic and three from continental Antarctica. Eggs were identified from the following species: Dactylobiotus cf. ambiguus, Macrobiotus furciger, Macrobiotus blocki, Minibiotus weinerorum and Acutuncus antarcticus. Other, unornamented eggs were also observed. The preservation of some of these eggs in exuviae allowed identification to at least genus. Significant variations were observed in egg abundance within the sediment of each lake, and in one lake a species (Dactylobiotus cf. ambiguus became locally extinct, probably as the result of penguin-associated eutrophication. Tardigrades generally did not become abundant for a considerable period after the lakes’ formation. The presence of an in-part endemic fauna is consistent with slow colonisation from Antarctic sources rather than wind transport from extra-continental sites. Tardigrade eggs appear to be abundant in high-latitude lake sediments, and greater use could be made of these records when evaluating tardigrade dynamics during the Holocene.

  16. Modeling the Thermal Interactions of Meteorites Below the Antarctic Ice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oldroyd, William Jared; Radebaugh, Jani; Stephens, Denise C.; Lorenz, Ralph; Harvey, Ralph; Karner, James

    2017-10-01

    Meteorites with high specific gravities, such as irons, appear to be underrepresented in Antarctic collections over the last 40 years. This underrepresentation is in comparison with observed meteorite falls, which are believed to represent the actual population of meteorites striking Earth. Meteorites on the Antarctic ice sheet absorb solar flux, possibly leading to downward tunneling into the ice, though observations of this in action are very limited. This descent is counteracted by ice sheet flow supporting the meteorites coupled with ablation near mountain margins, which helps to force meteorites towards the surface. Meteorites that both absorb adequate thermal energy and are sufficiently dense may instead reach a shallow equilibrium depth as downward melting overcomes upward forces during the Antarctic summer. Using a pyronometer, we have measured the incoming solar flux at multiple depths in two deep field sites in Antarctica, the Miller Range and Elephant Moraine. We compare these data with laboratory analogues and model the thermal and physical interactions between a variety of meteorites and their surroundings. Our Matlab code model will account for a wide range of parameters used to characterize meteorites in an Antarctic environment. We will present the results of our model along with depth estimates for several types of meteorites. The recovery of an additional population of heavy meteorites would increase our knowledge of the formation and composition of the solar system.

  17. Lake Michigan lake trout PCB model forecast post audit

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scenario forecasts for total PCBs in Lake Michigan (LM) lake trout were conducted using the linked LM2-Toxics and LM Food Chain models, supported by a suite of additional LM models. Efforts were conducted under the Lake Michigan Mass Balance Study and the post audit represents th...

  18. A lacustrine GDGT-temperature calibration from the Scandinavian Arctic to Antarctic: Renewed potential for the application of GDGT-paleothermometry in lakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pearson, Emma J.; Juggins, Steve; Talbot, Helen M.; Weckström, Jan; Rosén, Peter; Ryves, David B.; Roberts, Stephen J.; Schmidt, Roland

    2011-10-01

    Quantitative climate reconstructions are fundamental to understand long-term trends in natural climate variability and to test climate models used to predict future climate change. Recent advances in molecular geochemistry have led to calibrations using glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers (GDGTs), a group of temperature-sensitive membrane lipids found in Archaea and bacteria. GDGTs have been used to construct temperature indices for oceans (TEX 86 index) and soils (MBT/CBT index). The aim of this study is to examine GDGT-temperature relationships and assess the potential of constructing a GDGT-based palaeo-thermometer for lakes. We examine GDGT-temperature relationships using core top sediments from 90 lakes across a north-south transect from the Scandinavian Arctic to Antarctica including sites from Finland, Sweden, Siberia, the UK, Austria, Turkey, Ethiopia, Uganda, Chile, South Georgia and the Antarctic Peninsula. We examine a suite of 15 GDGTs, including compounds used in the TEX 86 and MBT/CBT indices and reflecting the broad range of GDGT inputs to small lake systems. GDGTs are present in varying proportions in all lakes examined. The TEX 86 index is not applicable to our sites because of the large relative proportions of soil derived and methanogenic components. Similarly, the MBT/CBT index is also not applicable and predicts temperatures considerably lower than those measured. We examine relationships between individual GDGT compounds and temperature, pH, conductivity and water depth. Temperature accounts for a large and statistically independent fraction of variation in branched GDGT composition. We propose a GDGT-temperature regression model with high accuracy and precision ( R2 = 0.88; RMSE = 2.0 °C; RMSEP = 2.1 °C) for use in lakes based on a subset of branched GDGT compounds and highlight the potential of this new method for reconstructing past temperatures using lake sediments.

  19. Ice-dammed lateral lake and epishelf lake insights into Holocene dynamics of Marguerite Trough Ice Stream and George VI Ice Shelf, Alexander Island, Antarctic Peninsula

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davies, Bethan J.; Hambrey, Michael J.; Glasser, Neil F.; Holt, Tom; Rodés, Angél; Smellie, John L.; Carrivick, Jonathan L.; Blockley, Simon P. E.

    2017-12-01

    We present new data regarding the past dynamics of Marguerite Trough Ice Stream, George VI Ice Shelf and valley glaciers from Ablation Point Massif on Alexander Island, Antarctic Peninsula. This ice-free oasis preserves a geological record of ice stream lateral moraines, ice-dammed lakes, ice-shelf moraines and valley glacier moraines, which we dated using cosmogenic nuclide ages. We provide one of the first detailed sediment-landform assemblage descriptions of epishelf lake shorelines. Marguerite Trough Ice Stream imprinted lateral moraines against eastern Alexander Island at 120 m at Ablation Point Massif. During deglaciation, lateral lakes formed in the Ablation and Moutonnée valleys, dammed against the ice stream in George VI Sound. Exposure ages from boulders on these shorelines yielded ages of 13.9 to 9.7 ka. Following recession of the ice stream, George VI Ice Shelf formed in George VI Sound. An epishelf lake formed at 15-20 m asl in Ablation and Moutonnée valleys, dated from 9.4 to 4.6 ka, suggesting that the lake was stable and persistent for some 5000 years. Lake-level lowering occurred after this, with the lake level at 12 m at 3.1 ± 0.4 ka and at 5 m asl today. A readvance of the valley glaciers on Alexander Island at 4.4 ± 0.7 ka is recorded by valley glacier moraines overlying epishelf lake sediments. We speculate that the glacier readvance, which occurred during a period of warmth, may have been caused by a dynamic response of the glaciers to a lowering in surface elevation of George VI Ice Shelf.

  20. Cascading water underneath Wilkes Land, East Antarctic ice sheet, observed using altimetry and digital elevation models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flament, T.; Berthier, E.; Rémy, F.

    2014-04-01

    We describe a major subglacial lake drainage close to the ice divide in Wilkes Land, East Antarctica, and the subsequent cascading of water underneath the ice sheet toward the coast. To analyse the event, we combined altimetry data from several sources and subglacial topography. We estimated the total volume of water that drained from Lake CookE2 by differencing digital elevation models (DEM) derived from ASTER and SPOT5 stereo imagery acquired in January 2006 and February 2012. At 5.2 ± 1.5 km3, this is the largest single subglacial drainage event reported so far in Antarctica. Elevation differences between ICESat laser altimetry spanning 2003-2009 and the SPOT5 DEM indicate that the discharge started in November 2006 and lasted approximately 2 years. A 13 m uplift of the surface, corresponding to a refilling of about 0.6 ± 0.3 km3, was observed between the end of the discharge in October 2008 and February 2012. Using the 35-day temporal resolution of Envisat radar altimetry, we monitored the subsequent filling and drainage of connected subglacial lakes located downstream of CookE2. The total volume of water traveling within the theoretical 500-km-long flow paths computed with the BEDMAP2 data set is similar to the volume that drained from Lake CookE2, and our observations suggest that most of the water released from Lake CookE2 did not reach the coast but remained trapped underneath the ice sheet. Our study illustrates how combining multiple remote sensing techniques allows monitoring of the timing and magnitude of subglacial water flow beneath the East Antarctic ice sheet.

  1. Organic and mineral imprints in fossil photosynthetic mats of an East Antarctic lake.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lepot, K; Compère, P; Gérard, E; Namsaraev, Z; Verleyen, E; Tavernier, I; Hodgson, D A; Vyverman, W; Gilbert, B; Wilmotte, A; Javaux, E J

    2014-09-01

    Lacustrine microbial mats in Antarctic ice-free oases are considered modern analogues of early microbial ecosystems as their primary production is generally dominated by cyanobacteria, the heterotrophic food chain typically truncated due to extreme environmental conditions, and they are geographically isolated. To better understand early fossilization and mineralization processes in this context, we studied the microstructure and chemistry of organo-mineral associations in a suite of sediments 50-4530 cal. years old from a lake in Skarvsnes, Lützow Holm Bay, East Antarctica. First, we report an exceptional preservation of fossil autotrophs and their biomolecules on millennial timescales. The pigment scytonemin is preserved inside cyanobacterial sheaths. As non-pigmented sheaths are also preserved, scytonemin likely played little role in the preservation of sheath polysaccharides, which have been cross-linked by ether bonds. Coccoids preserved thylakoids and autofluorescence of pigments such as carotenoids. This exceptional preservation of autotrophs in the fossil mats argues for limited biodegradation during and after deposition. Moreover, cell-shaped aggregates preserved sulfur-rich nanoglobules, supporting fossilization of instable intracellular byproducts of chemotrophic or phototrophic S-oxidizers. Second, we report a diversity of micro- to nanostructured CaCO3 precipitates intimately associated with extracellular polymeric substances, cyanobacteria, and/or other prokaryotes. Micro-peloids Type 1 display features that distinguish them from known carbonates crystallized in inorganic conditions: (i) Type 1A are often filled with globular nanocarbonates and/or surrounded by a fibrous fringe, (ii) Type 1B are empty and display ovoid to wrinkled fringes of nanocrystallites that can be radially oriented (fibrous or triangular) or multilayered, and (iii) all show small-size variations. Type 2 rounded carbonates 1-2 μm in diameter occurring inside autofluorescent

  2. Microbial Communities: Tracing Growth Processes from Antarctic Lakes to Early Earth to Other Planets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sumner, D. Y.

    2014-12-01

    Life in the Universe is dominated by microbes: they are numerically the most abundant cells in our bodies and in Earth's biosphere, and they are the only life that might be present elsewhere in our solar system. Life beyond our solar system could include macroscopic organisms, but everything we understand about the origin of life suggests it must start with microbes. Thus, understanding microbial ecosystems, in the absence of macroscopic organisms, is critical to understanding early life on Earth and life elsewhere in the Universe - if it exists. But what are the general principles of microbial ecology in the absence of predation? What happens when each cell is a chemical factory that can swap among metabolic processes in response to environmental and emergent cues? Geobiologists and astrobiologists are addressing these questions in diverse ways using both Earth's modern biosphere and its fossil record. Modern microbial communities in shallow, ice-covered lakes, Antarctica (Fig.), provide a model for high productivity microbial ecosystems with no to low predation. In these lakes, photosynthetic communities create macroscopic pinnacles and domes, sometime lithified into stromatolites. They provide an ecological, geochemical and morphological model for Precambrian microbial communities in low sedimentation, low current environments. Insights from these communities include new growth processes for ancient mats, especially some that grew prior to the oxidation of Earth's atmosphere. The diversity of biosignatures created in these communities also provides context for models of life under ice elsewhere in our solar system such as paleolakes on Mars and on icy moons. Results from the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) team document formerly habitable fluvial and lacustrine environments. Lacustrine environments, in particular, are favorable for preserving biosignatures, and continued investigations by MSL will provide a deeper understanding of the duration of habitable

  3.  Marine derived dinoflagellates in Antarctic saline lakes: Community composition and annual dynamics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rengefors, K.; Layborn-Parry, L.; Logares, R.

    2008-01-01

    polar dinoflagellate community, and not freshwater species. Polarella glacialis Montresor, Procaccini et Stoecker, a bipolar marine species, was for the first time described in a lake habitat and was an important phototrophic component in the higher salinity lakes. In the brackish lakes, we found a new...... sibling species to the brackish-water species Scrippsiella hangoei (J. Schiller) J. Larsen, previously observed only in the Baltic Sea....

  4. Antarctic lakes suggest millennial reorganizations of Southern Hemisphere atmospheric and oceanic circulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hall, Brenda L; Denton, George H; Fountain, Andrew G; Hendy, Chris H; Henderson, Gideon M

    2010-12-14

    The phasing of millennial-scale oscillations in Antarctica relative to those elsewhere in the world is important for discriminating among models for abrupt climate change, particularly those involving the Southern Ocean. However, records of millennial-scale variability from Antarctica dating to the last glacial maximum are rare and rely heavily on data from widely spaced ice cores, some of which show little variability through that time. Here, we present new data from closed-basin lakes in the Dry Valleys region of East Antarctica that show high-magnitude, high-frequency oscillations in surface level during the late Pleistocene synchronous with climate fluctuations elsewhere in the Southern Hemisphere. These data suggest a coherent Southern Hemisphere pattern of climate change on millennial time scales, at least in the Pacific sector, and indicate that any hypothesis concerning the origin of these events must account for synchronous changes in both high and temperate latitudes.

  5. A 50-years record of dichloro-diphenyl-trichloroethanes and hexachlorocyclohexanes in lake sediments and penguin droppings on King George Island, Maritime Antarctic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Li-guang; Yin, Xue-bin; Pan, Can-ping; Wang, Yu-hong

    2005-01-01

    Since the ban on the use of organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) such as dichloro-diphenyl-trichloroethane (DDT) and hexachlorocyclohexane(HCH) in agriculture, their levels have generally dropped. In a number of cases, however, the levels of these OCPs were found to be unchanging or even increasing after the ban. With the aim to unveil the possible causes of these exceptions, we collected two lake cores from King George Island, West Antarctica, and determined their accumulation flux profiles and temporal trends of these OCPs. In the lake core sediments with glacier meltwater input, the accumulation flux of DDT shows an abnormal peak around 1980s in addition to the expected one in 1960s. In the lake core sediments without glacier meltwater input, the accumulation flux of DDT shows a gradual decline trend after the peak in 1960s. This striking difference in the DDT flux profiles between the two lake cores is most likely caused by the regional climate warming and the resulted discharge of the DDT stored in the Antarctic ice cap into the lakes in the Antarctic glacier frontier. Furthermore, to investigate the change of OCPs loadings in the Antarctic coastal ecosystem, we reconstructed the HCH and DDT concentration profiles in penguin droppings and observed a gradual increase for the former and a continuous decrease for the latter during the past 50 years. The increase of HCH seems to be due to the regional warming from the early 1970s and the resulted HCH discharge to the coastal ecosystem by glaciers' meltwater and the illegal use of HCH in the Southern Hemisphere in the recent decade. Thedifferent temporal trends of HCH and DDT accumulation rate in the lake core with glacier meltwater input and the aged penguin droppings can be explained by their different water-soluble property.

  6. Post Audit of Lake Michigan Lake Trout PCB Model Forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Lake Michigan (LM) Mass Balance Study was conducted to measure and model polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and other anthropogenic substances to gain a better understanding of the transport, fate, and effects of these substances within the system and to aid managers in the env...

  7. Lysobacter oligotrophicus sp. nov., isolated from an Antarctic freshwater lake in Antarctica.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fukuda, Wakao; Kimura, Tomomi; Araki, Shigeo; Miyoshi, Yuki; Atomi, Haruyuki; Imanaka, Tadayuki

    2013-09-01

    A Gram-stain-negative, non-spore-forming, rod-shaped, aerobic bacterium (strain 107-E2(T)) was isolated from freshwater samples containing microbial mats collected at a lake in Skarvsnes, Antarctica (temporary lake name, Lake Tanago Ike). Strain 107-E2(T) grew between 5 and 25 °C, with an optimum of 23 °C. Moreover, colony formation was observed on agar media even at -5 °C. The pH range for growth was between 6.0 and 9.0, with an optimum of pH 7.0-8.0. The range of NaCl concentration for growth was between 0.0 and 0.5% (w/v), with an optimum of 0.0%. No growth was observed in media containing organic compounds at high concentrations, which indicated that strain 107-E2(T) was an oligotroph. In the late stationary phase, strain 107-E2(T) produced a dark brown water-soluble pigment. Esterase, amylase and protease production was observed. Antimicrobial-lytic activities for Gram-negative bacteria and yeast were observed. Ubiquinone-8 was the major respiratory quinone. The major fatty acids were iso-C15:0, iso-C(17:1)ω9c and iso-C(15:1) at 5. The G+C content of genomic DNA was 66.1 mol%. Analysis of the 16S rRNA gene sequences revealed that strain 107-E2(T) belonged to the genus Lysobacter, and low DNA-DNA relatedness values with closely related species distinguished strain 107-E2(T) from recognized species of the genus Lysobacter. The phylogenetic situation and physiological characteristics indicated that strain 107-E2(T) should be classified as a representative of a novel species of the genus Lysobacter, for which the name Lysobacter oligotrophicus sp. nov. is proposed. The type strain is 107-E2(T) ( =JCM 18257(T) =ATCC BAA-2438(T)).

  8. Modelling the effects of environmental conditions on the acoustic occurrence and behaviour of Antarctic blue whales.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fannie W Shabangu

    Full Text Available Harvested to perilously low numbers by commercial whaling during the past century, the large scale response of Antarctic blue whales Balaenoptera musculus intermedia to environmental variability is poorly understood. This study uses acoustic data collected from 586 sonobuoys deployed in the austral summers of 1997 through 2009, south of 38°S, coupled with visual observations of blue whales during the IWC SOWER line-transect surveys. The characteristic Z-call and D-call of Antarctic blue whales were detected using an automated detection template and visual verification method. Using a random forest model, we showed the environmental preferences pattern, spatial occurrence and acoustic behaviour of Antarctic blue whales. Distance to the southern boundary of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (SBACC, latitude and distance from the nearest Antarctic shores were the main geographic predictors of blue whale call occurrence. Satellite-derived sea surface height, sea surface temperature, and productivity (chlorophyll-a were the most important environmental predictors of blue whale call occurrence. Call rates of D-calls were strongly predicted by the location of the SBACC, latitude and visually detected number of whales in an area while call rates of Z-call were predicted by the SBACC, latitude and longitude. Satellite-derived sea surface height, wind stress, wind direction, water depth, sea surface temperatures, chlorophyll-a and wind speed were important environmental predictors of blue whale call rates in the Southern Ocean. Blue whale call occurrence and call rates varied significantly in response to inter-annual and long term variability of those environmental predictors. Our results identify the response of Antarctic blue whales to inter-annual variability in environmental conditions and highlighted potential suitable habitats for this population. Such emerging knowledge about the acoustic behaviour, environmental and habitat preferences of

  9. Modelling the effects of environmental conditions on the acoustic occurrence and behaviour of Antarctic blue whales.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shabangu, Fannie W; Yemane, Dawit; Stafford, Kathleen M; Ensor, Paul; Findlay, Ken P

    2017-01-01

    Harvested to perilously low numbers by commercial whaling during the past century, the large scale response of Antarctic blue whales Balaenoptera musculus intermedia to environmental variability is poorly understood. This study uses acoustic data collected from 586 sonobuoys deployed in the austral summers of 1997 through 2009, south of 38°S, coupled with visual observations of blue whales during the IWC SOWER line-transect surveys. The characteristic Z-call and D-call of Antarctic blue whales were detected using an automated detection template and visual verification method. Using a random forest model, we showed the environmental preferences pattern, spatial occurrence and acoustic behaviour of Antarctic blue whales. Distance to the southern boundary of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (SBACC), latitude and distance from the nearest Antarctic shores were the main geographic predictors of blue whale call occurrence. Satellite-derived sea surface height, sea surface temperature, and productivity (chlorophyll-a) were the most important environmental predictors of blue whale call occurrence. Call rates of D-calls were strongly predicted by the location of the SBACC, latitude and visually detected number of whales in an area while call rates of Z-call were predicted by the SBACC, latitude and longitude. Satellite-derived sea surface height, wind stress, wind direction, water depth, sea surface temperatures, chlorophyll-a and wind speed were important environmental predictors of blue whale call rates in the Southern Ocean. Blue whale call occurrence and call rates varied significantly in response to inter-annual and long term variability of those environmental predictors. Our results identify the response of Antarctic blue whales to inter-annual variability in environmental conditions and highlighted potential suitable habitats for this population. Such emerging knowledge about the acoustic behaviour, environmental and habitat preferences of Antarctic blue whales is

  10. High-resolution climate modelling of Antarctica and the Antarctic Peninsula

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Wessem, J.M.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/413533085

    2016-01-01

    In this thesis we have used a high-resolution regional atmospheric climate model (RACMO2.3) to simulate the present-day climate (1979-2014) of Antarctica and the Antarctic Peninsula. We have evaluated the model results with several observations, such as in situ surface energy balance (SEB)

  11. Parameterising a generic model for the dynamic energy budget of Antarctic krill, Euphausia superba.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jager, T.; Ravagnan, E.

    2015-01-01

    Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) theory is a generic and comprehensive framework for understanding bioenergetics over the entire life cycle of an organism. Here, we apply a simplified model derived from this theory (DEBkiss) to Antarctic krill Euphausia superba. The model was parameterised using growth

  12. Modeling Antarctic Ice Sheet retreat in warm climates: a historical perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pollard, D.; Deconto, R. M.; Gasson, E.

    2016-12-01

    Early modeling of Antarctic Ice Sheet size vs. climate focused on asymmetry between retreat and growth, with much greater warming needed to cause retreat from full ice cover, due to Height Mass Balance Feedback and albedo feedback. This led to a long-standing model-data conflict, with models needing 1000 to2000 ppmv atmospheric CO2 to produce retreat from full size, vs. proxy data of large ice fluctuations despite much lower CO2 since the Miocene.Subsequent modeling with marine ice physics found that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet could undergo repeated warm-period collapses with realistic past forcing. However, that yields only 3 to 7 m equivalent sea-level rise above modern, compared to 10 to 20 m or more suggested by some geologic data. Large subglacial basins in East Antarctica could be vulnerable to the same processes,but did not retreat in most models due to narrower and shallower sills.After recent modifications, some ice sheet models were able to produce warm-period collapse of major East Antarctic basins, with sea-level rise of up to 15 m. The modifications are (i) hydrofracturing by surface melt, and structural failure of ice cliffs, or (ii) numerical treatment at the grounding line. In these models, large retreat occurs both for past warmintervals, and also for future business-as-usual scenarios.Some interpretations of data in the late Oligocene and Miocene suggest yet larger fluctuations, between 50 to 100% of modern Antarctic size. That would require surface-melt driven retreat of some terrestrial East Antarctic ice, despite the hysteresis issue raised above. A recent study using a coupled climate-ice sheet model found that with a finer climate gridand more frequent coupling exchange, substantial retreat of terrestrial Antarctica can occur with 500 to 840 ppmv CO2, much lower than in earlier models. This will allow meaningful interactions between modeling and deeper-time geologic interpretations since the late Oligocene.

  13. A model assessment of the ability of lake water in Terra Nova Bay, Antarctica, to induce the photochemical degradation of emerging contaminants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minella, Marco; Maurino, Valter; Minero, Claudio; Vione, Davide

    2016-11-01

    The shallow lakes located in Terra Nova Bay, Antarctica, are free from ice for only up to a couple of months (mid December to early/mid February) during the austral summer. In the rest of the year, the ice cover shields the light and inhibits the photochemical processes in the water columns. Previous work has shown that chromophoric dissolved organic matter (CDOM) in these lakes is very reactive photochemically. A model assessment is here provided of lake-water photoreactivity in field conditions, based on experimental data of lake water absorption spectra, chemistry and photochemistry obtained previously, taking into account the water depth and the irradiation conditions of the Antarctic summer. The chosen sample contaminants were the solar filter benzophenone-3 and the antimicrobial agent triclosan, which have very well known photoreactivity and have been found in a variety of environmental matrices in the Antarctic continent. The two compounds would have a half-life time of just a few days or less in the lake water during the Antarctic summertime, largely due to reaction with CDOM triplet states ((3)CDOM*). In general, pollutants that occur in the ice and could be released to lake water upon ice melting (around or soon after the December solstice) would be quickly photodegraded if they undergo fast reaction with (3)CDOM*. With some compounds, the important (3)CDOM* reactions might favour the production of harmful secondary pollutants, such as 2,8-dichlorodibenzodioxin from the basic (anionic) form of triclosan. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. A new albedo parameterization for use in climate models over the Antarctic ice sheet

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kuipers Munneke, P.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/304831891; van den Broeke, M.R.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/073765643; Lenaerts, J.T.M.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/314850163; Flanner, M.G.; Gardner, A.S.; van de Berg, W.J.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/304831611

    2011-01-01

    A parameterization for broadband snow surface albedo, based on snow grain size evolution, cloud optical thickness, and solar zenith angle, is implemented into a regional climate model for Antarctica and validated against field observations of albedo for the period 1995–2004. Over the Antarctic

  15. Lake Michigan lake trout PCB model forecast post audit (oral presentation)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scenario forecasts for total PCBs in Lake Michigan (LM) lake trout were conducted using the linked LM2-Toxics and LM Food Chain models, supported by a suite of additional LM models. Efforts were conducted under the Lake Michigan Mass Balance Study and the post audit represents an...

  16. Ecosystem element transport model for Lake Eckarfjaerden

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Konovalenko, L.; Bradshaw, C. [The Department of Ecology, Environment and Plant Sciences, Stockholm University (Sweden); Andersson, E.; Kautsky, U. [Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co. - SKB (Sweden)

    2014-07-01

    The ecosystem transport model of elements was developed for Lake Eckarfjaerden located in the Forsmark area in Sweden. Forsmark has currently a low level repository (SFR) and a repository for spent fuel is planned. A large number of data collected during site-investigation program 2002-2009 for planning the repository were available for the creation of the compartment model based on carbon circulation, physical and biological processes (e.g. primary production, consumption, respiration). The model is site-specific in the sense that the food web model is adapted to the actual food web at the site, and most estimates of biomass and metabolic rates for the organisms and meteorological data originate from site data. The functional organism groups of Lake Eckarfjaerden were considered as separate compartments: bacterio-plankton, benthic bacteria, macro-algae, phytoplankton, zooplankton, fish, benthic fauna. Two functional groups of bacteria were taken into account for the reason that they have the highest biomass of all functional groups during the winter, comprising 36% of the total biomass. Effects of ecological parameters, such as bacteria and algae biomass, on redistribution of a hypothetical radionuclide release in the lake were examined. The ecosystem model was used to estimate the environmental transfer of several elements (U, Th, Ra) and their isotopes (U-238, U-234,Th-232, Ra-226) to various aquatic organisms in the lake, using element-specific distribution coefficients for suspended particle and sediment. Results of chemical analyses of the water, sediment and biota were used for model validation. The model gives estimates of concentration factors for fish based on modelling rather on in situ measurement, which reduces the uncertainties for many radionuclides with scarce of data. Document available in abstract form only. (authors)

  17. The transition from diffuse to focused extension: Modeled evolution of the West Antarctic Rift system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huerta, Audrey D.; Harry, Dennis L.

    2007-03-01

    Two distinct stages of extension are recognized in the West Antarctic Rift system (WARS). During the first stage, beginning in the Late Cretaceous, extension was broadly distributed throughout much of West Antarctica. A second stage of extension in the late Paleogene was focused primarily in the Victoria Land Basin, near the boundary with the East Antarctic craton. The transition to focused extension was roughly coeval with volcanic activity and strike-slip faulting in the adjacent Transantarctic Mountains. This spatial and temporal correspondence suggests that the transition in extensional style could be the result of a change in plate motions or impingement of a plume. Here we use finite element models to study the processes and conditions responsible for the two-stage evolution of rifting in the WARS. Model results indicate that the transition from a prolonged period of broadly distributed extension to a later period of focused rifting did not require a change in the regional stress regime (changes in plate motion), or deep mantle thermal state (impingement of a plume). Instead, we attribute the transition from diffuse to focused extension to an early stage dominated by the initially weak accreted lithosphere of West Antarctica, and a later stage that concentrated around a secondary weakness located at the boundary between the juvenile West Antarctica lithosphere and Precambrian East Antarctic craton. The modeled transition in extension from the initially weak West Antarctica region to the secondary weakness at the West Antarctic-East Antarctic boundary is precipitated by strengthening of the West Antarctica lithosphere during syn-extensional thinning and cooling. The modeled syn-extensional strengthening of the WARS lithosphere promotes a wide-rift mode of extension between 105 and ˜ 65 Ma. By ˜ 65 Ma most of the extending WARS region becomes stronger than the area immediately adjacent to the East Antarctic craton and extension becomes concentrated near the

  18. An Antarctic research outpost as a model for planetary exploration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andersen, D T; McKay, C P; Wharton, R A; Rummel, J D

    1990-01-01

    During the next 50 years, human civilization may well begin expanding into the solar system. This colonization of extraterrestrial bodies will most likely begin with the establishment of small research outposts on the Moon and/or Mars. In all probability these facilities, designed primarily for conducting exploration and basic science, will have international participation in their crews, logistical support and funding. High fidelity Earth-based simulations of planetary exploration could help prepare for these expensive and complex operations. Antarctica provides one possible venue for such a simulation. The hostile and remote dry valleys of southern Victoria Land offer a valid analog to the Martian environment but are sufficiently accessible to allow routine logistical support and to assure the relative safety of their inhabitants. An Antarctic research outpost designed as a planetary exploration simulation facility would have great potential as a testbed and training site for the operation of future Mars bases and represents a near-term, relatively low-cost alternative to other precursor activities. Antarctica already enjoys an international dimension, an aspect that is more than symbolically appropriate to an international endeavor of unprecedented scientific and social significance--planetary exploration by humans. Potential uses of such a facility include: 1) studying human factors in an isolated environment (including long-term interactions among an international crew); 2) testing emerging technologies (e.g., advanced life support facilities such as a partial bioregenerative life support system, advanced analytical and sample acquisition instrumentation and equipment, etc.); and 3) conducting basic scientific research similar to the research that will be conducted on Mars, while contributing to the planning for human exploration. (Research of this type is already ongoing in Antarctica).

  19. Microbially mediated redox transformations of manganese (II) along with some other trace elements: a study from Antarctic lakes

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Krishnan, K.P.; Sinha, R.K.; Krishna, K.; Nair, S.; Singh, S.M.

    a study that was conducted in the brackish water lakes in the Larsemann Hills region (east Antarctica) is presented. The rate of in situ manganese oxidation ranged from 0.04 to 3.96 ppb day sup(-1). These lakes harbor numerous manganese-oxidizing...

  20. Integrating three lake models into a Phytoplankton Prediction System for Lake Taihu (Taihu PPS) with Python

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Huang, J.; Gao, J.; Hörmann, G.; Mooij, W.M.

    2012-01-01

    In the past decade, much work has been done on integrating different lake models using general frameworks to overcome model incompatibilities. However, a framework may not be flexible enough to support applications in different fields. To overcome this problem, we used Python to integrate three lake

  1. Predictive Modelling of Heavy Metals in Urban Lakes

    OpenAIRE

    Lindström, Martin

    2000-01-01

    Heavy metals are well-known environmental pollutants. In this thesis predictive models for heavy metals in urban lakes are discussed and new models presented. The base of predictive modelling is empirical data from field investigations of many ecosystems covering a wide range of ecosystem characteristics. Predictive models focus on the variabilities among lakes and processes controlling the major metal fluxes. Sediment and water data for this study were collected from ten small lakes in the ...

  2. An improved active contour model for glacial lake extraction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, H.; Chen, F.; Zhang, M.

    2017-12-01

    Active contour model is a widely used method in visual tracking and image segmentation. Under the driven of objective function, the initial curve defined in active contour model will evolve to a stable condition - a desired result in given image. As a typical region-based active contour model, C-V model has a good effect on weak boundaries detection and anti noise ability which shows great potential in glacial lake extraction. Glacial lake is a sensitive indicator for reflecting global climate change, therefore accurate delineate glacial lake boundaries is essential to evaluate hydrologic environment and living environment. However, the current method in glacial lake extraction mainly contains water index method and recognition classification method are diffcult to directly applied in large scale glacial lake extraction due to the diversity of glacial lakes and masses impacted factors in the image, such as image noise, shadows, snow and ice, etc. Regarding the abovementioned advantanges of C-V model and diffcults in glacial lake extraction, we introduce the signed pressure force function to improve the C-V model for adapting to processing of glacial lake extraction. To inspect the effect of glacial lake extraction results, three typical glacial lake development sites were selected, include Altai mountains, Centre Himalayas, South-eastern Tibet, and Landsat8 OLI imagery was conducted as experiment data source, Google earth imagery as reference data for varifying the results. The experiment consequence suggests that improved active contour model we proposed can effectively discriminate the glacial lakes from complex backgound with a higher Kappa Coefficient - 0.895, especially in some small glacial lakes which belongs to weak information in the image. Our finding provide a new approach to improved accuracy under the condition of large proportion of small glacial lakes and the possibility for automated glacial lake mapping in large-scale area.

  3. Modeling and management of pit lake water chemistry 1: Theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Castendyk, D.N.; Eary, L.E.; Balistrieri, L.S.

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • Review of pit lake literature in the context of pit lake predictions. • Review of approaches used to predict pit wall-rock runoff and leachate. • Review of approaches used to generate a pit lake water balance. • Review of approaches used to generate a hydrodynamic prediction. • Review of approaches used to generate a geochemical prediction of a future pit lake. - Abstract: Pit lakes are permanent hydrologic/landscape features that can result from open pit mining for metals, coal, uranium, diamonds, oil sands, and aggregates. Risks associated with pit lakes include local and regional impacts to water quality and related impacts to aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems. Stakeholders rely on predictive models of water chemistry to prepare for and manage these risks. This paper is the first of a two part series on the modeling and management of pit lakes. Herein, we review approaches that have been used to quantify wall-rock runoff geochemistry, wall-rock leachate geochemistry, pit lake water balance, pit lake limnology (i.e. extent of vertical mixing), and pit lake water quality, and conclude with guidance on the application of models within the mine life cycle. The purpose of this paper is to better prepare stakeholders, including future modelers, mine managers, consultants, permitting agencies, land management agencies, regulators, research scientists, academics, and other interested parties, for the challenges of predicting and managing future pit lakes in un-mined areas

  4. Estimation of lake water - groundwater interactions in meromictic mining lakes by modelling isotope signatures of lake water.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seebach, Anne; Dietz, Severine; Lessmann, Dieter; Knoeller, Kay

    2008-03-01

    A method is presented to assess lake water-groundwater interactions by modelling isotope signatures of lake water using meteorological parameters and field data. The modelling of delta(18)O and deltaD variations offers information about the groundwater influx into a meromictic Lusatian mining lake. Therefore, a water balance model is combined with an isotope water balance model to estimate analogies between simulated and measured isotope signatures within the lake water body. The model is operated with different evaporation rates to predict delta(18)O and deltaD values in a lake that is only controlled by weather conditions with neither groundwater inflow nor outflow. Comparisons between modelled and measured isotope values show whether the lake is fed by the groundwater or not. Furthermore, our investigations show that an adaptation of the Craig and Gordon model [H. Craig, L.I. Gordon. Deuterium and oxygen-18 variations in the ocean and the marine atmosphere. In Stable Isotopes in Oceanographic Studies and Paleotemperature, Spoleto, E. Tongiorgi (Ed.), pp. 9-130, Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, Laboratorio di Geologia Nucleare, Pisa (1965).] to specific conditions in temperate regions seems necessary.

  5. Numerical modeling of a nuclear production reactor cooling lake

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hamm, L.L.; Pepper, D.W.

    1987-01-01

    A finite element model has been developed which predicts flow and temperature distributions within a nuclear reactor cooling lake at the Savannah River Plant near Aiken, South Carolina. Numerical results agree with values obtained from a 3-D EPA numerical lake model and actual measurements obtained from the lake. Because the effluent water from the reactor heat exchangers discharges directly into the lake, downstream temperatures at mid-lake could exceed the South Carolina DHEC guidelines for thermal exchanges during the summer months. Therefore, reactor power was reduced to maintain temperature compliance at mid-lake. Thermal mitigation measures were studied that included placing a 6.1 m deep fabric curtain across mid-lake and moving the reactor outfall upstream. These measurements were calculated to permit about an 8% improvement in reactor power during summer operation

  6. Tropically driven and externally forced patterns of Antarctic sea ice change: reconciling observed and modeled trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schneider, David P.; Deser, Clara

    2017-09-01

    Recent work suggests that natural variability has played a significant role in the increase of Antarctic sea ice extent during 1979-2013. The ice extent has responded strongly to atmospheric circulation changes, including a deepened Amundsen Sea Low (ASL), which in part has been driven by tropical variability. Nonetheless, this increase has occurred in the context of externally forced climate change, and it has been difficult to reconcile observed and modeled Antarctic sea ice trends. To understand observed-model disparities, this work defines the internally driven and radiatively forced patterns of Antarctic sea ice change and exposes potential model biases using results from two sets of historical experiments of a coupled climate model compared with observations. One ensemble is constrained only by external factors such as greenhouse gases and stratospheric ozone, while the other explicitly accounts for the influence of tropical variability by specifying observed SST anomalies in the eastern tropical Pacific. The latter experiment reproduces the deepening of the ASL, which drives an increase in regional ice extent due to enhanced ice motion and sea surface cooling. However, the overall sea ice trend in every ensemble member of both experiments is characterized by ice loss and is dominated by the forced pattern, as given by the ensemble-mean of the first experiment. This pervasive ice loss is associated with a strong warming of the ocean mixed layer, suggesting that the ocean model does not locally store or export anomalous heat efficiently enough to maintain a surface environment conducive to sea ice expansion. The pervasive upper-ocean warming, not seen in observations, likely reflects ocean mean-state biases.

  7. Tropically driven and externally forced patterns of Antarctic sea ice change: reconciling observed and modeled trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schneider, David P.; Deser, Clara

    2018-06-01

    Recent work suggests that natural variability has played a significant role in the increase of Antarctic sea ice extent during 1979-2013. The ice extent has responded strongly to atmospheric circulation changes, including a deepened Amundsen Sea Low (ASL), which in part has been driven by tropical variability. Nonetheless, this increase has occurred in the context of externally forced climate change, and it has been difficult to reconcile observed and modeled Antarctic sea ice trends. To understand observed-model disparities, this work defines the internally driven and radiatively forced patterns of Antarctic sea ice change and exposes potential model biases using results from two sets of historical experiments of a coupled climate model compared with observations. One ensemble is constrained only by external factors such as greenhouse gases and stratospheric ozone, while the other explicitly accounts for the influence of tropical variability by specifying observed SST anomalies in the eastern tropical Pacific. The latter experiment reproduces the deepening of the ASL, which drives an increase in regional ice extent due to enhanced ice motion and sea surface cooling. However, the overall sea ice trend in every ensemble member of both experiments is characterized by ice loss and is dominated by the forced pattern, as given by the ensemble-mean of the first experiment. This pervasive ice loss is associated with a strong warming of the ocean mixed layer, suggesting that the ocean model does not locally store or export anomalous heat efficiently enough to maintain a surface environment conducive to sea ice expansion. The pervasive upper-ocean warming, not seen in observations, likely reflects ocean mean-state biases.

  8. Geochemical monitoring of volcanic lakes. A generalized box model for active crater lakes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Franco Tassi

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available

    In the past, variations in the chemical contents (SO42−, Cl−, cations of crater lake water have not systematically demonstrated any relationships with eruptive activity. Intensive parameters (i.e., concentrations, temperature, pH, salinity should be converted into extensive parameters (i.e., fluxes, changes with time of mass and solutes, taking into account all the internal and external chemical–physical factors that affect the crater lake system. This study presents a generalized box model approach that can be useful for geochemical monitoring of active crater lakes, as highly dynamic natural systems. The mass budget of a lake is based on observations of physical variations over a certain period of time: lake volume (level, surface area, lake water temperature, meteorological precipitation, air humidity, wind velocity, input of spring water, and overflow of the lake. This first approach leads to quantification of the input and output fluxes that contribute to the actual crater lake volume. Estimating the input flux of the "volcanic" fluid (Qf- kg/s –– an unmeasurable subsurface parameter –– and tracing its variations with time is the major focus during crater lake monitoring. Through expanding the mass budget into an isotope and chemical budget of the lake, the box model helps to qualitatively characterize the fluids involved. The (calculated Cl− content and dD ratio of the rising "volcanic" fluid defines its origin. With reference to continuous monitoring of crater lakes, the present study provides tips that allow better calculation of Qf in the future. At present, this study offers the most comprehensive and up-to-date literature review on active crater lakes.

  9. (Pre-) calibration of a Reduced Complexity Model of the Antarctic Contribution to Sea-level Changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruckert, K. L.; Guan, Y.; Shaffer, G.; Forest, C. E.; Keller, K.

    2015-12-01

    (Pre-) calibration of a Reduced Complexity Model of the Antarctic Contribution to Sea-level ChangesKelsey L. Ruckert1*, Yawen Guan2, Chris E. Forest1,3,7, Gary Shaffer 4,5,6, and Klaus Keller1,7,81 Department of Geosciences, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania, USA 2 Department of Statistics, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania, USA 3 Department of Meteorology, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania, USA 4 GAIA_Antarctica, University of Magallanes, Punta Arenas, Chile 5 Center for Advanced Studies in Arid Zones, La Serena, Chile 6 Niels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark 7 Earth and Environmental Systems Institute, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania, USA 8 Department of Engineering and Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA * Corresponding author. E-mail klr324@psu.eduUnderstanding and projecting future sea-level changes poses nontrivial challenges. Sea-level changes are driven primarily by changes in the density of seawater as well as changes in the size of glaciers and ice sheets. Previous studies have demonstrated that a key source of uncertainties surrounding sea-level projections is the response of the Antarctic ice sheet to warming temperatures. Here we calibrate a previously published and relatively simple model of the Antarctic ice sheet over a hindcast period from the last interglacial period to the present. We apply and compare a range of (pre-) calibration methods, including a Bayesian approach that accounts for heteroskedasticity. We compare the model hindcasts and projections for different levels of model complexity and calibration methods. We compare the projections with the upper bounds from previous studies and find our projections have a narrower range in 2100. Furthermore we discuss the implications for the design of climate risk management strategies.

  10. An assessment of historical Antarctic precipitation and temperature trend using CMIP5 models and reanalysis datasets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Malcolm S. Y.; Chenoli, Sheeba Nettukandy; Samah, Azizan Abu; Hai, Ooi See

    2018-03-01

    The study of Antarctic precipitation has attracted a lot of attention recently. The reliability of climate models in simulating Antarctic precipitation, however, is still debatable. This work assess the precipitation and surface air temperature (SAT) of Antarctica (90 oS to 60 oS) using 49 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) global climate models and the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts "Interim" reanalysis (ERA-Interim); the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR); the Japan Meteorological Agency 55-year Reanalysis (JRA-55); and the Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) datasets for 1979-2005 (27 years). For precipitation, the time series show that the MERRA and JRA-55 have significantly increased from 1979 to 2005, while the ERA-Int and CFSR have insignificant changes. The reanalyses also have low correlation with one another (generally less than +0.69). 37 CMIP5 models show increasing trend, 18 of which are significant. The resulting CMIP5 MMM also has a significant increasing trend of 0.29 ± 0.06 mm year-1. For SAT, the reanalyses show insignificant changes and have high correlation with one another, while the CMIP5 MMM shows a significant increasing trend. Nonetheless, the variability of precipitation and SAT of MMM could affect the significance of its trend. One of the many reasons for the large differences of precipitation is the CMIP5 models' resolution.

  11. [Lake eutrophication modeling in considering climatic factors change: a review].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Su, Jie-Qiong; Wang, Xuan; Yang, Zhi-Feng

    2012-11-01

    Climatic factors are considered as the key factors affecting the trophic status and its process in most lakes. Under the background of global climate change, to incorporate the variations of climatic factors into lake eutrophication models could provide solid technical support for the analysis of the trophic evolution trend of lake and the decision-making of lake environment management. This paper analyzed the effects of climatic factors such as air temperature, precipitation, sunlight, and atmosphere on lake eutrophication, and summarized the research results about the lake eutrophication modeling in considering in considering climatic factors change, including the modeling based on statistical analysis, ecological dynamic analysis, system analysis, and intelligent algorithm. The prospective approaches to improve the accuracy of lake eutrophication modeling with the consideration of climatic factors change were put forward, including 1) to strengthen the analysis of the mechanisms related to the effects of climatic factors change on lake trophic status, 2) to identify the appropriate simulation models to generate several scenarios under proper temporal and spatial scales and resolutions, and 3) to integrate the climatic factors change simulation, hydrodynamic model, ecological simulation, and intelligent algorithm into a general modeling system to achieve an accurate prediction of lake eutrophication under climatic change.

  12. Validation of a limited area model over Dome C, Antarctic Plateau, during winter

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gallee, Hubert; Gorodetskaya, Irina V. [Laboratoire de Glaciologie et de Geophysique de l' Environnement, CNRS, 54, rue Moliere, BP. 96, St Martin d' Heres Cedex (France)

    2010-01-15

    The limited area model MAR (Modele Atmospherique Regional) is validated over the Antarctic Plateau for the period 2004-2006, focussing on Dome C during the cold season. MAR simulations are made by initializing the model once and by forcing it through its lateral and top boundaries by the ECMWF operational analyses. Model outputs compare favourably with observations from automatic weather station (AWS), radiometers and atmospheric soundings. MAR is able to simulate the succession of cold and warm events which occur at Dome C during winter. Larger longwave downwelling fluxes (LWD) are responsible for higher surface air temperatures and weaker surface inversions during winter. Warm events are better simulated when the small Antarctic precipitating snow particles are taken into account in radiative transfer computations. MAR stratosphere cools during the cold season, with the coldest temperatures occurring in conjunction with warm events at the surface. The decrease of saturation specific humidity associated with these coldest temperatures is responsible for the formation of polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) especially in August-September. PSCs then contribute to the surface warming by increasing the surface downwelling longwave flux. (orig.)

  13. Resolving the Antarctic contribution to sea-level rise: a hierarchical modelling framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zammit-Mangion, Andrew; Rougier, Jonathan; Bamber, Jonathan; Schön, Nana

    2014-06-01

    Determining the Antarctic contribution to sea-level rise from observational data is a complex problem. The number of physical processes involved (such as ice dynamics and surface climate) exceeds the number of observables, some of which have very poor spatial definition. This has led, in general, to solutions that utilise strong prior assumptions or physically based deterministic models to simplify the problem. Here, we present a new approach for estimating the Antarctic contribution, which only incorporates descriptive aspects of the physically based models in the analysis and in a statistical manner. By combining physical insights with modern spatial statistical modelling techniques, we are able to provide probability distributions on all processes deemed to play a role in both the observed data and the contribution to sea-level rise. Specifically, we use stochastic partial differential equations and their relation to geostatistical fields to capture our physical understanding and employ a Gaussian Markov random field approach for efficient computation. The method, an instantiation of Bayesian hierarchical modelling, naturally incorporates uncertainty in order to reveal credible intervals on all estimated quantities. The estimated sea-level rise contribution using this approach corroborates those found using a statistically independent method. © 2013 The Authors. Environmetrics Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  14. Resolving the Antarctic contribution to sea-level rise: a hierarchical modelling framework†

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zammit-Mangion, Andrew; Rougier, Jonathan; Bamber, Jonathan; Schön, Nana

    2014-01-01

    Determining the Antarctic contribution to sea-level rise from observational data is a complex problem. The number of physical processes involved (such as ice dynamics and surface climate) exceeds the number of observables, some of which have very poor spatial definition. This has led, in general, to solutions that utilise strong prior assumptions or physically based deterministic models to simplify the problem. Here, we present a new approach for estimating the Antarctic contribution, which only incorporates descriptive aspects of the physically based models in the analysis and in a statistical manner. By combining physical insights with modern spatial statistical modelling techniques, we are able to provide probability distributions on all processes deemed to play a role in both the observed data and the contribution to sea-level rise. Specifically, we use stochastic partial differential equations and their relation to geostatistical fields to capture our physical understanding and employ a Gaussian Markov random field approach for efficient computation. The method, an instantiation of Bayesian hierarchical modelling, naturally incorporates uncertainty in order to reveal credible intervals on all estimated quantities. The estimated sea-level rise contribution using this approach corroborates those found using a statistically independent method. © 2013 The Authors. Environmetrics Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. PMID:25505370

  15. Sulphur isotope measurements on sulphates from Antarctic atmospheric precipitations, lake waters and salt efflorescences: a contribution to the study of the natural sulphur cycle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wand, U.; Maass, I.; Haendel, D.

    1987-01-01

    Sulphur isotope analyses are an important tool for the study of the natural sulphur cycle. However, on the northern hemisphere such studies particularly of the atmospheric component of the cycle are seriously hampered and in many regions practically impossible because of the high emission rate of anthropogenic sulphur. Only in remote areas of the world such as the Antarctic 34 S analyses can be used with success to identify the various natural sulphur sources (marine, biogenic and volcanic sources). We report here preliminary results of 34 S isotope measurements on sulphates from recent atmospheric precipitations (snow), lake waters and salt efflorescences sampled in the Schirmacher Oasis and the Wohlthat Massif, central Queen Maud Land, East Antarctica. Except for 4 efflorescence samples the sulphates investigated in this work are enriched in 34 S relative to the meteoritic sulphur standard (CDT). On an average the sulphates of our study area are isotopically lighter than those from the McMurdo region, South Victoria land. The latter region is characterized by the predominance of salts of marine origin. (author)

  16. Evidence for link between modelled trends in Antarctic sea ice and underestimated westerly wind changes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Purich, Ariaan; Cai, Wenju; England, Matthew H; Cowan, Tim

    2016-02-04

    Despite global warming, total Antarctic sea ice coverage increased over 1979-2013. However, the majority of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 models simulate a decline. Mechanisms causing this discrepancy have so far remained elusive. Here we show that weaker trends in the intensification of the Southern Hemisphere westerly wind jet simulated by the models may contribute to this disparity. During austral summer, a strengthened jet leads to increased upwelling of cooler subsurface water and strengthened equatorward transport, conducive to increased sea ice. As the majority of models underestimate summer jet trends, this cooling process is underestimated compared with observations and is insufficient to offset warming in the models. Through the sea ice-albedo feedback, models produce a high-latitude surface ocean warming and sea ice decline, contrasting the observed net cooling and sea ice increase. A realistic simulation of observed wind changes may be crucial for reproducing the recent observed sea ice increase.

  17. Timescales of Growth Response of Microbial Mats to Environmental Change in an Ice-Covered Antarctic Lake

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anne D. Jungblut

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Lake Vanda is a perennially ice-covered, closed-basin lake in the McMurdo Dry Valleys, Antarctica. Laminated photosynthetic microbial mats cover the floor of the lake from below the ice cover to >40 m depth. In recent decades, the water level of Lake Vanda has been rising, creating a “natural experiment” on development of mat communities on newly flooded substrates and the response of deeper mats to declining irradiance. Mats in recently flooded depths accumulate one lamina (~0.3 mm per year and accrue ~0.18 µg chlorophyll-a cm−2 y−1. As they increase in thickness, vertical zonation becomes evident, with the upper 2-4 laminae forming an orange-brown zone, rich in myxoxanthophyll and dominated by intertwined Leptolyngbya trichomes. Below this, up to six phycobilin-rich green/pink-pigmented laminae form a subsurface zone, inhabited by Leptolyngbya, Oscillatoria and Phormidium morphotypes. Laminae continued to increase in thickness for several years after burial, and PAM fluorometry indicated photosynthetic potential in all pigmented laminae. At depths that have been submerged for >40 years, mats showed similar internal zonation and formed complex pinnacle structures that were only beginning to appear in shallower mats. Chlorophyll-a did not change over time and these mats appear to represent resource-limited “climax” communities. Acclimation of microbial mats to changing environmental conditions is a slow process, and our data show how legacy effects of past change persist into the modern community structure.

  18. Determining lake surface water temperatures worldwide using a tuned one-dimensional lake model (FLake, v1)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Layden, Aisling; MacCallum, Stuart N.; Merchant, Christopher J.

    2016-06-01

    A tuning method for FLake, a one-dimensional (1-D) freshwater lake model, is applied for the individual tuning of 244 globally distributed large lakes using observed lake surface water temperatures (LSWTs) derived from along-track scanning radiometers (ATSRs). The model, which was tuned using only three lake properties (lake depth, snow and ice albedo and light extinction coefficient), substantially improves the measured mean differences in various features of the LSWT annual cycle, including the LSWTs of saline and high altitude lakes, when compared to the observed LSWTs. Lakes whose lake-mean LSWT persists below 1 °C for part of the annual cycle are considered to be seasonally ice-covered. For trial seasonally ice-covered lakes (21 lakes), the daily mean and standard deviation (2σ) of absolute differences between the modelled and observed LSWTs are reduced from 3.07 °C ± 2.25 °C to 0.84 °C ± 0.51 °C by tuning the model. For all other trial lakes (14 non-ice-covered lakes), the improvement is from 3.55 °C ± 3.20 °C to 0.96 °C ± 0.63 °C. The post tuning results for the 35 trial lakes (21 seasonally ice-covered lakes and 14 non-ice-covered lakes) are highly representative of the post-tuning results of the 244 lakes. For the 21 seasonally ice-covered lakes, the modelled response of the summer LSWTs to changes in snow and ice albedo is found to be statistically related to lake depth and latitude, which together explain 0.50 (R2adj, p = 0.001) of the inter-lake variance in summer LSWTs. Lake depth alone explains 0.35 (p = 0.003) of the variance. Lake characteristic information (snow and ice albedo and light extinction coefficient) is not available for many lakes. The approach taken to tune the model, bypasses the need to acquire detailed lake characteristic values. Furthermore, the tuned values for lake depth, snow and ice albedo and light extinction coefficient for the 244 lakes provide some guidance on improving FLake LSWT modelling.

  19. A model study of the effect of climate and sea-level change on the evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet from the Last Glacial Maximum to 2100

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Maris, M. N. A.; Van Wessem, J. M.; Van De Berg, W. J.; De Boer, B.; Oerlemans, J.

    2014-01-01

    Due to a scarcity of observations and its long memory of uncertain past climate, the Antarctic Ice Sheet remains a largely unknown factor in the prediction of global sea level change. As the history of the ice sheet plays a key role in its future evolution, in this study we model the Antarctic Ice

  20. Assessment of Antarctic moss health from multi-sensor UAS imagery with Random Forest Modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turner, Darren; Lucieer, Arko; Malenovský, Zbyněk; King, Diana; Robinson, Sharon A.

    2018-06-01

    Moss beds are one of very few terrestrial vegetation types that can be found on the Antarctic continent and as such mapping their extent and monitoring their health is important to environmental managers. Across Antarctica, moss beds are experiencing changes in health as their environment changes. As Antarctic moss beds are spatially fragmented with relatively small extent they require very high resolution remotely sensed imagery to monitor their distribution and dynamics. This study demonstrates that multi-sensor imagery collected by an Unmanned Aircraft System (UAS) provides a novel data source for assessment of moss health. In this study, we train a Random Forest Regression Model (RFM) with long-term field quadrats at a study site in the Windmill Islands, East Antarctica and apply it to UAS RGB and 6-band multispectral imagery, derived vegetation indices, 3D topographic data, and thermal imagery to predict moss health. Our results suggest that moss health, expressed as a percentage between 0 and 100% healthy, can be estimated with a root mean squared error (RMSE) between 7 and 12%. The RFM also quantifies the importance of input variables for moss health estimation showing the multispectral sensor data was important for accurate health prediction, such information being essential for planning future field investigations. The RFM was applied to the entire moss bed, providing an extrapolation of the health assessment across a larger spatial area. With further validation the resulting maps could be used for change detection of moss health across multiple sites and seasons.

  1. SWAT Model Configuration, Calibration and Validation for Lake Champlain Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used to develop phosphorus loading estimates for sources in the Lake Champlain Basin. This document describes the model setup and parameterization, and presents calibration results.

  2. Predicting future glacial lakes in Austria using different modelling approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Otto, Jan-Christoph; Helfricht, Kay; Prasicek, Günther; Buckel, Johannes; Keuschnig, Markus

    2017-04-01

    Glacier retreat is one of the most apparent consequences of temperature rise in the 20th and 21th centuries in the European Alps. In Austria, more than 240 new lakes have formed in glacier forefields since the Little Ice Age. A similar signal is reported from many mountain areas worldwide. Glacial lakes can constitute important environmental and socio-economic impacts on high mountain systems including water resource management, sediment delivery, natural hazards, energy production and tourism. Their development significantly modifies the landscape configuration and visual appearance of high mountain areas. Knowledge on the location, number and extent of these future lakes can be used to assess potential impacts on high mountain geo-ecosystems and upland-lowland interactions. Information on new lakes is critical to appraise emerging threads and potentials for society. The recent development of regional ice thickness models and their combination with high resolution glacier surface data allows predicting the topography below current glaciers by subtracting ice thickness from glacier surface. Analyzing these modelled glacier bed surfaces reveals overdeepenings that represent potential locations for future lakes. In order to predict the location of future glacial lakes below recent glaciers in the Austrian Alps we apply different ice thickness models using high resolution terrain data and glacier outlines. The results are compared and validated with ice thickness data from geophysical surveys. Additionally, we run the models on three different glacier extents provided by the Austrian Glacier Inventories from 1969, 1998 and 2006. Results of this historical glacier extent modelling are compared to existing glacier lakes and discussed focusing on geomorphological impacts on lake evolution. We discuss model performance and observed differences in the results in order to assess the approach for a realistic prediction of future lake locations. The presentation delivers

  3. Lake-0: A model for the simulation of nuclides transfer in lake scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garcia-Olivares, A.; Aguero, A.; Pinedo, P.

    1994-01-01

    This report presents documentation and a user's manual for the program LAKE-0, a mathematical model of nuclides transfer in lake scenarios. Mathematical equations and physical principles used to develop the code are presented in section 2. The program use is presented in section 3 including input data sets and output data. Section 4 presents two example problems, and some results. The complete program listing including comments is presented in Appendix A. Nuclides are assumed to enter the lake via atmospheric deposition and carried by the water runoff and the dragged sediments from the adjacent catchment. The dynamics of the nuclides inside the lake is based in the model proposed by Codell (11) as modified in (5). The removal of concentration from the lake water is due to outflow from the lake and to the transfer of activity to the bottom sediments. The model has been applied to the Esthwaite Water (54 degree 21 minute N, 03 degree 00 minute W at 65 m. asl.) in the frame of the VAMP Aquatic Working Group (8) and to Devoke Water (54 degree 21 minute 5'N, 03 degree, 18 minute W at 230 m. asl.)

  4. LAKE-0: a model for the simulation of nuclides transfer in lake scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Garcia-Olivares, A.; Aguero, A.; Pinedo, P.

    1994-07-01

    This report presents documentation and a user's manual for the program LAKE-0, a mathematical model of nuclides transfer in lake scenarios. Mathematical equations and physical principles used to develop the code are presented in section 2. The program use is presented in section 3 including input data sets and output data. Section 4 presents two example problems, and some results. The complete program listing including comments is presented in Appendix A. Nuclides are assumed to center the lake via atmospheric deposition and carried by the water runoff and the dragged sediments from the adjacent catchment. The dynamics of the nuclides inside the lake is based in the model proposed by Codell (11) as modified in (5). The removal of concentration from the lake water is due to out flow from the lake and to the transfer of activity to the button sediments. The model has been applied to the Esthwaite Water (54 degree celsius 2 l'N, 03 degree celsius 00'W at 65 m. asi.) in the frame of the VAMP Aquatic Working Group (8) and to Devoke Water (5 21.5'N, 03H8'W at 230 m. asi.). (Author). 13 refs.

  5. LAKE-0: a model for the simulation of nuclides transfer in lake scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garcia-Olivares, A.; Aguero, A.; Pinedo, P.

    1994-01-01

    This report presents documentation and a user's manual for the program LAKE-0, a mathematical model of nuclides transfer in lake scenarios. Mathematical equations and physical principles used to develop the code are presented in section 2. The program use is presented in section 3 including input data sets and output data. Section 4 presents two example problems, and some results. The complete program listing including comments is presented in Appendix A. Nuclides are assumed to center the lake via atmospheric deposition and carried by the water runoff and the dragged sediments from the adjacent catchment. The dynamics of the nuclides inside the lake is based in the model proposed by Codell (11) as modified in (5). The removal of concentration from the lake water is due to out flow from the lake and to the transfer of activity to the button sediments. The model has been applied to the Esthwaite Water (54 degree celsius 2 l'N, 03 degree celsius 00'W at 65 m. asi.) in the frame of the VAMP Aquatic Working Group (8) and to Devoke Water (5 21.5'N, 03H8'W at 230 m. asi.). (Author). 13 refs

  6. Modeling Prairie Pothole Lakes: Linking Satellite Observation and Calibration (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwartz, F. W.; Liu, G.; Zhang, B.; Yu, Z.

    2009-12-01

    This paper examines the response of a complex lake wetland system to variations in climate. The focus is on the lakes and wetlands of the Missouri Coteau, which is part of the larger Prairie Pothole Region of the Central Plains of North America. Information on lake size was enumerated from satellite images, and yielded power law relationships for different hydrological conditions. More traditional lake-stage data were made available to us from the USGS Cottonwood Lake Study Site in North Dakota. A Probabilistic Hydrologic Model (PHM) was developed to simulate lake complexes comprised of tens-of-thousands or more individual closed-basin lakes and wetlands. What is new about this model is a calibration scheme that utilizes remotely-sensed data on lake area as well as stage data for individual lakes. Some ¼ million individual data points are used within a Genetic Algorithm to calibrate the model by comparing the simulated results with observed lake area-frequency power law relationships derived from Landsat images and water depths from seven individual lakes and wetlands. The simulated lake behaviors show good agreement with the observations under average, dry, and wet climatic conditions. The calibrated model is used to examine the impact of climate variability on a large lake complex in ND, in particular, the “Dust Bowl Drought” 1930s. This most famous drought of the 20th Century devastated the agricultural economy of the Great Plains with health and social impacts lingering for years afterwards. Interestingly, the drought of 1930s is unremarkable in relation to others of greater intensity and frequency before AD 1200 in the Great Plains. Major droughts and deluges have the ability to create marked variability of the power law function (e.g. up to one and a half orders of magnitude variability from the extreme Dust Bowl Drought to the extreme 1993-2001 deluge). This new probabilistic modeling approach provides a novel tool to examine the response of the

  7. LakeMIP Kivu: evaluating the representation of a large, deep tropical lake by a set of one-dimensional lake models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    WIM Thiery

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available The African great lakes are of utmost importance for the local economy (fishing, as well as being essential to the survival of the local people. During the past decades, these lakes experienced fast changes in ecosystem structure and functioning, and their future evolution is a major concern. In this study, for the first time a set of one-dimensional lake models are evaluated for Lake Kivu (2.28°S; 28.98°E, East Africa. The unique limnology of this meromictic lake, with the importance of salinity and subsurface springs in a tropical high-altitude climate, presents a worthy challenge to the seven models involved in the Lake Model Intercomparison Project (LakeMIP. Meteorological observations from two automatic weather stations are used to drive the models, whereas a unique dataset, containing over 150 temperature profiles recorded since 2002, is used to assess the model's performance. Simulations are performed over the freshwater layer only (60 m and over the average lake depth (240 m, since salinity increases with depth below 60 m in Lake Kivu and some lake models do not account for the influence of salinity upon lake stratification. All models are able to reproduce the mixing seasonality in Lake Kivu, as well as the magnitude and seasonal cycle of the lake enthalpy change. Differences between the models can be ascribed to variations in the treatment of the radiative forcing and the computation of the turbulent heat fluxes. Fluctuations in wind velocity and solar radiation explain inter-annual variability of observed water column temperatures. The good agreement between the deep simulations and the observed meromictic stratification also shows that a subset of models is able to account for the salinity- and geothermal-induced effects upon deep-water stratification. Finally, based on the strengths and weaknesses discerned in this study, an informed choice of a one-dimensional lake model for a given research purpose becomes possible.

  8. Tropospheric jet response to Antarctic ozone depletion: An update with Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Son, Seok-Woo; Han, Bo-Reum; Garfinkel, Chaim I.; Kim, Seo-Yeon; Park, Rokjin; Abraham, N. Luke; Akiyoshi, Hideharu; Archibald, Alexander T.; Butchart, N.; Chipperfield, Martyn P.; Dameris, Martin; Deushi, Makoto; Dhomse, Sandip S.; Hardiman, Steven C.; Jöckel, Patrick; Kinnison, Douglas; Michou, Martine; Morgenstern, Olaf; O’Connor, Fiona M.; Oman, Luke D.; Plummer, David A.; Pozzer, Andrea; Revell, Laura E.; Rozanov, Eugene; Stenke, Andrea; Stone, Kane; Tilmes, Simone; Yamashita, Yousuke; Zeng, Guang

    2018-05-01

    The Southern Hemisphere (SH) zonal-mean circulation change in response to Antarctic ozone depletion is re-visited by examining a set of the latest model simulations archived for the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) project. All models reasonably well reproduce Antarctic ozone depletion in the late 20th century. The related SH-summer circulation changes, such as a poleward intensification of westerly jet and a poleward expansion of the Hadley cell, are also well captured. All experiments exhibit quantitatively the same multi-model mean trend, irrespective of whether the ocean is coupled or prescribed. Results are also quantitatively similar to those derived from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) high-top model simulations in which the stratospheric ozone is mostly prescribed with monthly- and zonally-averaged values. These results suggest that the ozone-hole-induced SH-summer circulation changes are robust across the models irrespective of the specific chemistry-atmosphere-ocean coupling.

  9. A new bed elevation model for the Weddell Sea sector of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeofry, Hafeez; Ross, Neil; Corr, Hugh F. J.; Li, Jilu; Morlighem, Mathieu; Gogineni, Prasad; Siegert, Martin J.

    2018-04-01

    We present a new digital elevation model (DEM) of the bed, with a 1 km gridding, of the Weddell Sea (WS) sector of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS). The DEM has a total area of ˜ 125 000 km2 covering the Institute, Möller and Foundation ice streams, as well as the Bungenstock ice rise. In comparison with the Bedmap2 product, our DEM includes new aerogeophysical datasets acquired by the Center for Remote Sensing of Ice Sheets (CReSIS) through the NASA Operation IceBridge (OIB) program in 2012, 2014 and 2016. We also improve bed elevation information from the single largest existing dataset in the region, collected by the British Antarctic Survey (BAS) Polarimetric radar Airborne Science Instrument (PASIN) in 2010-2011, from the relatively crude measurements determined in the field for quality control purposes used in Bedmap2. While the gross form of the new DEM is similar to Bedmap2, there are some notable differences. For example, the position and size of a deep subglacial trough (˜ 2 km below sea level) between the ice-sheet interior and the grounding line of the Foundation Ice Stream have been redefined. From the revised DEM, we are able to better derive the expected routing of basal water and, by comparison with that calculated using Bedmap2, we are able to assess regions where hydraulic flow is sensitive to change. Given the potential vulnerability of this sector to ocean-induced melting at the grounding line, especially in light of the improved definition of the Foundation Ice Stream trough, our revised DEM will be of value to ice-sheet modelling in efforts to quantify future glaciological changes in the region and, from this, the potential impact on global sea level. The new 1 km bed elevation product of the WS sector can be found at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.1035488" target="_blank">https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.1035488.

  10. [Prokaryotic community of subglacial bottom sediments of Antarctic Lake Untersee: detection by cultural and direct microscopic techniques].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muliukin, A L; Demkina, E V; Manucharova, N A; Akimov, V N; Andersen, D; McKay, C; Gal'chenko, V F

    2014-01-01

    The heterotrophic mesophilic component was studied in microbial communities of the samples of frozen regolith collected from the glacier near Lake Untersee collected in 2011 during the joint Russian-American expedition to central Dronning Maud Land (Eastern Antarctica). Cultural techniques revealed high bacterial numbers in the samples. For enumeration of viable cells, the most probable numbers (MPN) method proved more efficient than plating on agar media. Fluorescent in situ hybridization with the relevant oligonucleotide probes revealed members of the groups Eubacteria (Actinobacteria, Firmicutes) and Archaea. Application of the methods of cell resuscitation, such as the use of diluted media and prevention of oxidative stress, did not result in a significant increase in the numbers of viable cells retrieved form subglacial sediment samples. Our previous investigations demonstrated the necessity for special procedures for efficient reactivation of the cells from microbial communities of preserved fossil soil and permafrost samples collected in the Arctic zone. The differences in response to the special resuscitation procedures may reflect the differences in the physiological and morphological state of bacterial cells in microbial communities subject to continuous or periodic low temperatures and dehydration.

  11. The lake foodweb: modelling predation and abiotic/biotic interactions

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Hakanson, L; Boulion, V.V

    2002-01-01

    .... The model is based on many new approaches of structuring lake foodweb interactions. It uses ordinary differential equations and gives weekly variations in production and biomass for its nine groups of organisms...

  12. Challenges and opportunities for integrating lake ecosystem modelling approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mooij, Wolf M.; Trolle, Dennis; Jeppesen, Erik; Arhonditsis, George; Belolipetsky, Pavel V.; Chitamwebwa, Deonatus B.R.; Degermendzhy, Andrey G.; DeAngelis, Donald L.; Domis, Lisette N. De Senerpont; Downing, Andrea S.; Elliott, J. Alex; Ruberto, Carlos Ruberto; Gaedke, Ursula; Genova, Svetlana N.; Gulati, Ramesh D.; Hakanson, Lars; Hamilton, David P.; Hipsey, Matthew R.; Hoen, Jochem 't; Hulsmann, Stephan; Los, F. Hans; Makler-Pick, Vardit; Petzoldt, Thomas; Prokopkin, Igor G.; Rinke, Karsten; Schep, Sebastiaan A.; Tominaga, Koji; Van Dam, Anne A.; Van Nes, Egbert H.; Wells, Scott A.; Janse, Jan H.

    2010-01-01

    A large number and wide variety of lake ecosystem models have been developed and published during the past four decades. We identify two challenges for making further progress in this field. One such challenge is to avoid developing more models largely following the concept of others ('reinventing the wheel'). The other challenge is to avoid focusing on only one type of model, while ignoring new and diverse approaches that have become available ('having tunnel vision'). In this paper, we aim at improving the awareness of existing models and knowledge of concurrent approaches in lake ecosystem modelling, without covering all possible model tools and avenues. First, we present a broad variety of modelling approaches. To illustrate these approaches, we give brief descriptions of rather arbitrarily selected sets of specific models. We deal with static models (steady state and regression models), complex dynamic models (CAEDYM, CE-QUAL-W2, Delft 3D-ECO, LakeMab, LakeWeb, MyLake, PCLake, PROTECH, SALMO), structurally dynamic models and minimal dynamic models. We also discuss a group of approaches that could all be classified as individual based: super-individual models (Piscator, Charisma), physiologically structured models, stage-structured models and trait-based models. We briefly mention genetic algorithms, neural networks, Kalman filters and fuzzy logic. Thereafter, we zoom in, as an in-depth example, on the multi-decadal development and application of the lake ecosystem model PCLake and related models (PCLake Metamodel, Lake Shira Model, IPH-TRIM3D-PCLake). In the discussion, we argue that while the historical development of each approach and model is understandable given its 'leading principle', there are many opportunities for combining approaches. We take the point of view that a single 'right' approach does not exist and should not be strived for. Instead, multiple modelling approaches, applied concurrently to a given problem, can help develop an integrative

  13. Modeling of subglacial hydrological development following rapid supraglacial lake drainage

    OpenAIRE

    Dow, C F; Kulessa, B; Rutt, I C; Tsai, V C; Pimentel, S; Doyle, S H; van As, D; Lindb?ck, K; Pettersson, R; Jones, G A; Hubbard, A

    2015-01-01

    The rapid drainage of supraglacial lakes injects substantial volumes of water to the bed of the Greenland ice sheet over short timescales. The effect of these water pulses on the development of basal hydrological systems is largely unknown. To address this, we develop a lake drainage model incorporating both (1) a subglacial radial flux element driven by elastic hydraulic jacking and (2) downstream drainage through a linked channelized and distributed system. Here we present the model and exa...

  14. Parameter Estimations of Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB Model over the Life History of a Key Antarctic Species: The Antarctic Sea Star Odontaster validus Koehler, 1906.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonio Agüera

    Full Text Available Marine organisms in Antarctica are adapted to an extreme ecosystem including extremely stable temperatures and strong seasonality due to changes in day length. It is now largely accepted that Southern Ocean organisms are particularly vulnerable to global warming with some regions already being challenged by a rapid increase of temperature. Climate change affects both the physical and biotic components of marine ecosystems and will have an impact on the distribution and population dynamics of Antarctic marine organisms. To predict and assess the effect of climate change on marine ecosystems a more comprehensive knowledge of the life history and physiology of key species is urgently needed. In this study we estimate the Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB model parameters for key benthic Antarctic species the sea star Odontaster validus using available information from literature and experiments. The DEB theory is unique in capturing the metabolic processes of an organism through its entire life cycle as a function of temperature and food availability. The DEB model allows for the inclusion of the different life history stages, and thus, becomes a tool that can be used to model lifetime feeding, growth, reproduction, and their responses to changes in biotic and abiotic conditions. The DEB model presented here includes the estimation of reproduction handling rules for the development of simultaneous oocyte cohorts within the gonad. Additionally it links the DEB model reserves to the pyloric caeca an organ whose function has long been ascribed to energy storage. Model parameters described a slowed down metabolism of long living animals that mature slowly. O. validus has a large reserve that-matching low maintenance costs- allow withstanding long periods of starvation. Gonad development is continuous and individual cohorts developed within the gonads grow in biomass following a power function of the age of the cohort. The DEB model developed here for O

  15. Modelling assessment of End Pit Lakes meromictic potential

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2006-11-01

    The use of End Pit Lakes have been proposed as a remediation solution for oil sands reclamation and operational waters. This report modelled the main factors controlling the occurrence of stratification in Pit Lakes in order to establish design and management guidelines for the Cumulative Environmental Management Association's End Pit Lake Sub-group. The study focused on End Pit Lake size, depth, starting lake salinity concentrations, inflow rates and inflow salinity flux, and investigated their influence on density gradients. One-dimensional modelling and limited 2-D modelling simulations were conducted to examine meromictic potential for a large range of End Pit Lake configurations and conditions. Modelling results showed that fall is the governing season for determining meromixis. The expelling of salt from saline water upon ice formation and its effect on stratification potential and the effect of fresh water loading on stratification potential during spring melt events were not observed to be dominant factors governing meromictic potential for the scenarios examined in the study. Results suggested that shallow End Pit Lakes showed a high turn-over rate with seasonal heating and cooling cycles. Moderately deep End Pit Lakes demonstrated a meromictic potential that was inversely proportional to lake size and require higher starting salinities. With a 2 or 10 million m 3 /yr inflow rate and a 5 parts per thousand starting salinity, a 50 m deep End Pit Lake achieved meromixis at all 3 size ranges considered in the study. Results also showed that the rate of influent salinity decrease was the least important of the parameters influencing meromixis. It was observed that meromixis was a temporary condition in all of the End Pit Lake scenarios envisioned due to the lack of a constant, positive salt replenishment over the long term. It was concluded that further 3-D modelling is required to represent littoral areas as well as to account for extreme winter conditions. A

  16. Subaqueous geology and a filling model for Crater Lake, Oregon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nathenson, M.; Bacon, C.R.; Ramsey, D.W.

    2007-01-01

    Results of a detailed bathymetric survey of Crater Lake conducted in 2000, combined with previous results of submersible and dredge sampling, form the basis for a geologic map of the lake floor and a model for the filling of Crater Lake with water. The most prominent landforms beneath the surface of Crater Lake are andesite volcanoes that were active as the lake was filling with water, following caldera collapse during the climactic eruption of Mount Mazama 7700 cal. yr B.P. The Wizard Island volcano is the largest and probably was active longest, ceasing eruptions when the lake was 80 m lower than present. East of Wizard Island is the central platform volcano and related lava flow fields on the caldera floor. Merriam Cone is a symmetrical andesitic volcano that apparently was constructed subaqueously during the same period as the Wizard Island and central platform volcanoes. The youngest postcaldera volcanic feature is a small rhyodacite dome on the east flank of the Wizard Island edifice that dates from 4800 cal. yr B.P. The bathymetry also yields information on bedrock outcrops and talus/debris slopes of the caldera walls. Gravity flows transport sediment from wall sources to the deep basins of the lake. Several debris-avalanche deposits, containing blocks up to 280 m long, are present on the caldera floor and occur below major embayments in the caldera walls. Geothermal phenomena on the lake floor are bacterial mats, pools of solute-rich warm water, and fossil subaqueous hot spring deposits. Lake level is maintained by a balance between precipitation and inflow versus evaporation and leakage. High-resolution bathymetry reveals a series of up to nine drowned beaches in the upper 30 m of the lake that we propose reflect stillstands subsequent to filling of Crater Lake. A prominent wave-cut platform between 4 m depth and present lake level that commonly is up to 40 m wide suggests that the surface of Crater Lake has been at this elevation for a very long time

  17. Tides and lake-level variations in the great Patagonian lakes: Observations, modelling and geophysical implications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marderwald, Eric; Richter, Andreas; Horwath, Martin; Hormaechea, Jose Luis; Groh, Andreas

    2016-04-01

    In Patagonia, the glacial-isostatic adjustment (GIA) to past ice-mass changes (Ivins & James 2004; Klemann et al. 2007) is of particular interest in the context of the determination of the complex regional rheology related to plate subduction in a triple-junction constellation. To further complicate the situation, GIA is overlaid with load deformation not only due to present ice mass changes but also due to water-level changes in the lakes surrounding the icefields and the ocean surrounding Patagonia. These elastic deformations affect the determination of glacial-isostatic uplift rates from GPS observations (Dietrich et al. 2010; Lange et al. 2014). Observations of lake tides and their comparison with the theoretical tidal signal have been used previously to validate predictions of ocean tidal loading and have revealed regional deviations from conventional global elastic earth models (Richter et al. 2009). In this work we investigate the tides and lake-level variations in Lago Argentino, Lago Viedma, Lago San Martín/O'Higgins and Lago Buenos Aires/General Carrera. This allows us to test, among other things, the validity of tidal loading models. We present pressure tide-gauge records from two sites in Lago Argentino extending over 2.5 years (Richter et al. 2015). These observations are complemented by lake-level records provided by the Argentine National Hydrometeorological Network. Based on these lake-level time series the principal processes affecting the lake level are identified and quantified. Lake-level changes reflecting variations in lake volume are dominated by a seasonal cycle exceeding 1 m in amplitude. Lake-volume changes occur in addition with a daily period in response to melt water influx from surrounding glaciers. In Lago Argentino sporadic lake-volume jumps are caused by bursting of the ice dam of Perito Moreno glacier. Water movements in these lakes are dominated by surface seiches reaching 20 cm in amplitude. A harmonic tidal analysis of the lake

  18. Lake on life support: Evaluating urban lake management measures by using a coupled 1D-modelling approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ladwig, Robert; Kirillin, Georgiy; Hinkelmann, Reinhard; Hupfer, Michael

    2017-04-01

    Urban surface water systems and especially lakes are heavily stressed and modified systems to comply with water management goals and expectations. In this study we focus on Lake Tegel in Berlin, Germany, as a representative of heavily modified urban lakes. In the 20th century, Lake Tegel received increased loadings of nutrients and leached heavy metals from an upstream sewage farm resulting in severe eutrophication problems. The construction of two upstream treatment plants caused a lowering of nutrient concentrations and a re-oligotrophication of the lake. Additionally, artificial aerators, to keep the hypolimnion oxic, and a lake pipeline, to bypass water for maintaining a minimum discharge, went into operation. Lake Tegel is still heavily used for drinking water extraction by bank filtration. These interacting management measures make the system vulnerable to changing climate conditions and pollutant loads. Past modelling studies have shown the complex hydrodynamics of the lake. Here, we are following a simplified approach by using a less computational time consuming vertical 1D-model to simulate the hydrodynamics and the ecological interactions of the system by coupling the General Lake Model to the Aquatic Ecodynamics Model Library 2. For calibration of the multidimensional parameter space we applied the Covariance Matrix Adaption-Evolution Strategy algorithm. The model is able to sufficiently replicate the vertical field temperature profiles of Lake Tegel as well as to simulate similar concentration ranges of phosphate, dissolved oxygen and nitrate. The calibrated model is used to run an uncertainty analysis by sampling the simulated data within the meaning of the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm. Finally, we are evaluating different scenarios: (1) changing air temperatures, precipitation and wind speed due to effects of climate change, (2) decreased discharges into the lake due to bypassing treated effluents into a near stream instead of Lake Tegel, and (3

  19. Modeling lakes and reservoirs in the climate system

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacKay, M.D.; Neale, P.J.; Arp, C.D.; De Senerpont Domis, L. N.; Fang, X.; Gal, G.; Jo, K.D.; Kirillin, G.; Lenters, J.D.; Litchman, E.; MacIntyre, S.; Marsh, P.; Melack, J.; Mooij, W.M.; Peeters, F.; Quesada, A.; Schladow, S.G.; Schmid, M.; Spence, C.; Stokes, S.L.

    2009-01-01

    Modeling studies examining the effect of lakes on regional and global climate, as well as studies on the influence of climate variability and change on aquatic ecosystems, are surveyed. Fully coupled atmosphere-land surface-lake climate models that could be used for both of these types of study simultaneously do not presently exist, though there are many applications that would benefit from such models. It is argued here that current understanding of physical and biogeochemical processes in freshwater systems is sufficient to begin to construct such models, and a path forward is proposed. The largest impediment to fully representing lakes in the climate system lies in the handling of lakes that are too small to be explicitly resolved by the climate model, and that make up the majority of the lake-covered area at the resolutions currently used by global and regional climate models. Ongoing development within the hydrological sciences community and continual improvements in model resolution should help ameliorate this issue.

  20. Empirical models of wind conditions on Upper Klamath Lake, Oregon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buccola, Norman L.; Wood, Tamara M.

    2010-01-01

    Upper Klamath Lake is a large (230 square kilometers), shallow (mean depth 2.8 meters at full pool) lake in southern Oregon. Lake circulation patterns are driven largely by wind, and the resulting currents affect the water quality and ecology of the lake. To support hydrodynamic modeling of the lake and statistical investigations of the relation between wind and lake water-quality measurements, the U.S. Geological Survey has monitored wind conditions along the lakeshore and at floating raft sites in the middle of the lake since 2005. In order to make the existing wind archive more useful, this report summarizes the development of empirical wind models that serve two purposes: (1) to fill short (on the order of hours or days) wind data gaps at raft sites in the middle of the lake, and (2) to reconstruct, on a daily basis, over periods of months to years, historical wind conditions at U.S. Geological Survey sites prior to 2005. Empirical wind models based on Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Multivariate-Adaptive Regressive Splines (MARS) algorithms were compared. ANNs were better suited to simulating the 10-minute wind data that are the dependent variables of the gap-filling models, but the simpler MARS algorithm may be adequate to accurately simulate the daily wind data that are the dependent variables of the historical wind models. To further test the accuracy of the gap-filling models, the resulting simulated winds were used to force the hydrodynamic model of the lake, and the resulting simulated currents were compared to measurements from an acoustic Doppler current profiler. The error statistics indicated that the simulation of currents was degraded as compared to when the model was forced with observed winds, but probably is adequate for short gaps in the data of a few days or less. Transport seems to be less affected by the use of the simulated winds in place of observed winds. The simulated tracer concentration was similar between model results when

  1. Metal complexation capacity of Antarctic lacustrine sediments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alberti, Giancarla; Mussi, Matteo; Quattrini, Federico; Pesavento, Maria; Biesuz, Raffaela

    2018-04-01

    The purpose of this study is to implement a work that is a part of a project funded by the Italian National Antarctic Research Program (PNRA, Piano Nazionale di Ricerche in Antartide) within the main thematic focus "Chemical Contamination-Global Change". This research was devoted to detect and characterize micro and nano components with strong complexing capability towards metal ions at trace level in sea water, lakes and lacustrine sediments, sampled during the XXII expedition of PNRA. In particular, in the present work, the sorption complexation capacity of an Antarctic lacustrine sediments toward Cu(II) and Pb(II) is described. The characterization of the sorption was undertaken, studying kinetics and isotherm profiles. The lake here considered is Tarn Flat in the area of Terra Nova Bay. The sorption equilibria of Cu(II) and Pb(II) on the lacustrine sediments were reached in about 10 h, and they were best modelled by the Langmuir equation. Preliminary, to establish if the data here obtained were consistent with those reported for the same area in other expeditions, a common multivariate techniques, namely the principal component analysis (PCA), was applied and finally the consistency of the data has been confirmed. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. A new bed elevation model for the Weddell Sea sector of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Jeofry

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available We present a new digital elevation model (DEM of the bed, with a 1 km gridding, of the Weddell Sea (WS sector of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS. The DEM has a total area of ∼ 125 000 km2 covering the Institute, Möller and Foundation ice streams, as well as the Bungenstock ice rise. In comparison with the Bedmap2 product, our DEM includes new aerogeophysical datasets acquired by the Center for Remote Sensing of Ice Sheets (CReSIS through the NASA Operation IceBridge (OIB program in 2012, 2014 and 2016. We also improve bed elevation information from the single largest existing dataset in the region, collected by the British Antarctic Survey (BAS Polarimetric radar Airborne Science Instrument (PASIN in 2010–2011, from the relatively crude measurements determined in the field for quality control purposes used in Bedmap2. While the gross form of the new DEM is similar to Bedmap2, there are some notable differences. For example, the position and size of a deep subglacial trough (∼ 2 km below sea level between the ice-sheet interior and the grounding line of the Foundation Ice Stream have been redefined. From the revised DEM, we are able to better derive the expected routing of basal water and, by comparison with that calculated using Bedmap2, we are able to assess regions where hydraulic flow is sensitive to change. Given the potential vulnerability of this sector to ocean-induced melting at the grounding line, especially in light of the improved definition of the Foundation Ice Stream trough, our revised DEM will be of value to ice-sheet modelling in efforts to quantify future glaciological changes in the region and, from this, the potential impact on global sea level. The new 1 km bed elevation product of the WS sector can be found at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.1035488.

  3. The origin of platyrrhines: An evaluation of the Antarctic scenario and the floating island model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Houle, A

    1999-08-01

    This paper evaluates whether 1) protoplatyrrhines could have migrated to South America via Antarctica, and 2) the floating island model is a plausible transoceanic mode of dispersal for land vertebrates like protoplatyrrhines. Results show that Eocene Antarctica and Australia supported large and dense forests, and that the Antarctic fauna was comprised of many species of vertebrates, including placental and marsupial land mammals. However, no primate remains have ever been reported from these continents. Antarctica and South America were connected until the Middle Eocene (i.e., after the oldest Asian anthropoids), but two major water barriers existed between Antarctica and Asia since the Early Eocene. The Eocene and Oligocene water gap separating Africa and Antarctica was excessively large. Thus, all scenarios involving an Antarctic route have been rejected. The African scenario is difficult to falsify because only one water barrier existed, both paleowinds and paleocurrents were favorable, and Paleogene African anthropoids show phylogenetic affinities to platyrrhines. I tested whether a journey on a hypothetical floating island over the Paleogene Atlantic Ocean exceeds the survival limit of a genetically viable group of animals such as protoplatyrrhines. Studies of water deprivation suggest that they could have been able, with a body weight averaging 1 kg, to survive without water for at least 13 days. I have used the present Atlantic Ocean as a model for the velocity of Paleogene paleowinds and paleocurrents. Considering winds as the key accelerating force of floating islands, the Paleogene Atlantic water barrier could have been crossed, in the most conservative scenario, in 8 days at 50 Mya, 11 days at 40 Mya, and 15 days at 30 Mya. In order to survive a transoceanic journey, however, protoplatyrrhines had to be preadapted to strong seasonal variations in water availability in their original (African) environment. Once on the sea, their brains would have

  4. Extinction and recolonization of maritime Antarctica in the limpet Nacella concinna (Strebel, 1908) during the last glacial cycle: toward a model of Quaternary biogeography in shallow Antarctic invertebrates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    González-Wevar, C A; Saucède, T; Morley, S A; Chown, S L; Poulin, E

    2013-10-01

    Quaternary glaciations in Antarctica drastically modified geographical ranges and population sizes of marine benthic invertebrates and thus affected the amount and distribution of intraspecific genetic variation. Here, we present new genetic information in the Antarctic limpet Nacella concinna, a dominant Antarctic benthic species along shallow ice-free rocky ecosystems. We examined the patterns of genetic diversity and structure in this broadcast spawner along maritime Antarctica and from the peri-Antarctic island of South Georgia. Genetic analyses showed that N. concinna represents a single panmictic unit in maritime Antarctic. Low levels of genetic diversity characterized this population; its median-joining haplotype network revealed a typical star-like topology with a short genealogy and a dominant haplotype broadly distributed. As previously reported with nuclear markers, we detected significant genetic differentiation between South Georgia Island and maritime Antarctica populations. Higher levels of genetic diversity, a more expanded genealogy and the presence of more private haplotypes support the hypothesis of glacial persistence in this peri-Antarctic island. Bayesian Skyline plot and mismatch distribution analyses recognized an older demographic history in South Georgia. Approximate Bayesian computations did not support the persistence of N. concinna along maritime Antarctica during the last glacial period, but indicated the resilience of the species in peri-Antarctic refugia (South Georgia Island). We proposed a model of Quaternary Biogeography for Antarctic marine benthic invertebrates with shallow and narrow bathymetric ranges including (i) extinction of maritime Antarctic populations during glacial periods; (ii) persistence of populations in peri-Antarctic refugia; and (iii) recolonization of maritime Antarctica following the deglaciation process. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  5. Assessing Lake Level Variability and Water Availability in Lake Tana, Ethiopia using a Groundwater Flow Model and GRACE Satellite Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hasan, E.; Dokou, Z.; Kirstetter, P. E.; Tarhule, A.; Anagnostou, E. N.; Bagtzoglou, A. C.; Hong, Y.

    2017-12-01

    Lake Tana is the source of the Blue Nile and Ethiopia's largest natural buffer against seasonal variations of rainfall. Assessing the interactions between the lake level fluctuation, hydroclimatic variabilities and anthropogenic factors is essential to detect drought conditions and identify the role of human management in controlling the Lake water balance. Via an extended record of Total Water Storage (TWS) anomalies for the period 1960-2016, a water budget model for the lake water inflow/outflow was developed. Estimates of Lake Level Altimetry (LLA) based on in-situ and satellite altimetry were composited from 1960-2016 and compared to the extended TWS anomalies, the self-calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI), the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the historical lake water levels and releases. In addition, the simulated lake levels and water budget from a coupled groundwater and lake model of the Lake Tana basin were compared to the above results. Combining the different approaches, the water budget of the lake can be monitored, the drought conditions can be identified and the role of human management in the lake can be determined. For instance, three major drought periods are identified, 1970 to 1977, 1979 to 1987 and 1990 to 1998, each succeeded with an interposed flooding related recovery year, i.e. 1978, 1988 and 1999. The drought/flooding events were attributed mainly to the ENSO interactions that resulted in lake level fluctuations. The period from 2002-2006 was associated with a remarkable decline of the lake level that was attributed partly in drought conditions and the full flow regulation of the Chara Chara weir at the lake outlet, initiated in 2001.

  6. Modeling the Dynamics of the Atmospheric Boundary Layer Over the Antarctic Plateau With a General Circulation Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vignon, Etienne; Hourdin, Frédéric; Genthon, Christophe; Van de Wiel, Bas J. H.; Gallée, Hubert; Madeleine, Jean-Baptiste; Beaumet, Julien

    2018-01-01

    Observations evidence extremely stable boundary layers (SBL) over the Antarctic Plateau and sharp regime transitions between weakly and very stable conditions. Representing such features is a challenge for climate models. This study assesses the modeling of the dynamics of the boundary layer over the Antarctic Plateau in the LMDZ general circulation model. It uses 1 year simulations with a stretched-grid over Dome C. The model is nudged with reanalyses outside of the Dome C region such as simulations can be directly compared to in situ observations. We underline the critical role of the downward longwave radiation for modeling the surface temperature. LMDZ reasonably represents the near-surface seasonal profiles of wind and temperature but strong temperature inversions are degraded by enhanced turbulent mixing formulations. Unlike ERA-Interim reanalyses, LMDZ reproduces two SBL regimes and the regime transition, with a sudden increase in the near-surface inversion with decreasing wind speed. The sharpness of the transition depends on the stability function used for calculating the surface drag coefficient. Moreover, using a refined vertical grid leads to a better reversed "S-shaped" relationship between the inversion and the wind. Sudden warming events associated to synoptic advections of warm and moist air are also well reproduced. Near-surface supersaturation with respect to ice is not allowed in LMDZ but the impact on the SBL structure is moderate. Finally, climate simulations with the free model show that the recommended configuration leads to stronger inversions and winds over the ice-sheet. However, the near-surface wind remains underestimated over the slopes of East-Antarctica.

  7. A new heat flux model for the Antarctic Peninsula incorporating spatially variable upper crustal radiogenic heat production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burton-Johnson, A.; Halpin, J.; Whittaker, J. M.; Graham, F. S.; Watson, S. J.

    2017-12-01

    We present recently published findings (Burton-Johnson et al., 2017) on the variability of Antarctic sub-glacial heat flux and the impact from upper crustal geology. Our new method reveals that the upper crust contributes up to 70% of the Antarctic Peninsula's subglacial heat flux, and that heat flux values are more variable at smaller spatial resolutions than geophysical methods can resolve. Results indicate a higher heat flux on the east and south of the Peninsula (mean 81 mWm-2) where silicic rocks predominate, than on the west and north (mean 67 mWm-2) where volcanic arc and quartzose sediments are dominant. Whilst the data supports the contribution of HPE-enriched granitic rocks to high heat flux values, sedimentary rocks can be of comparative importance dependent on their provenance and petrography. Models of subglacial heat flux must utilize a heterogeneous upper crust with variable radioactive heat production if they are to accurately predict basal conditions of the ice sheet. Our new methodology and dataset facilitate improved numerical model simulations of ice sheet dynamics. The most significant challenge faced remains accurate determination of crustal structure, particularly the depths of the HPE-enriched sedimentary basins and the sub-glacial geology away from exposed outcrops. Continuing research (particularly detailed geophysical interpretation) will better constrain these unknowns and the effect of upper crustal geology on the Antarctic ice sheet. Burton-Johnson, A., Halpin, J.A., Whittaker, J.M., Graham, F.S., and Watson, S.J., 2017, A new heat flux model for the Antarctic Peninsula incorporating spatially variable upper crustal radiogenic heat production: Geophysical Research Letters, v. 44, doi: 10.1002/2017GL073596.

  8. Morphology and stratal geometry of the Antarctic continental shelf: Insights from models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cooper, Alan K.; Barker, Peter F.; Brancolini, Giuliano

    1997-01-01

    Reconstruction of past ice-sheet fluctuations from the stratigraphy of glaciated continental shelves requires understanding of the relationships among the stratal geometry, glacial and marine sedimentary processes, and ice dynamics. We investigate the formation of the morphology and the broad stratal geometry of topsets on the Antarctic continental shelf with numerical models. Our models assume that the stratal geometry and morphology are principally the results of time-integrated effects of glacial erosion and sedimentation related to the location of the seaward edge of the grounded ice. The location of the grounding line varies with time almost randomly across the shelf. With these simple assumptions, the models can successfully mimic salient features of the morphology and the stratal geometry. The models suggest that the current shelf has gradually evolved to its present geometry by many glacial advances and retreats of the grounding line to different locations across the shelf. The locations of the grounding line do not appear to be linearly correlated with either fluctuations in the 5 l s O record (which presumably represents changes in the global ice volume) or with the global sea-level curve, suggesting that either a more complex relationship exists or local effects dominate. The models suggest that erosion of preglacial sediments is confined to the inner shelf, and erosion decreases and deposition increases toward the shelf edge. Some of the deposited glacial sediments must be derived from continental erosion. The sediments probably undergo extensive transport and reworking obliterating much of the evidence for their original depositional environment. The flexural rigidity and the tectonic subsidence of the underlying lithosphere modify the bathymetry of the shelf, but probably have little effect on the stratal geometry. Our models provide several guidelines for the interpretation of unconformities, the nature of preserved topset deposits, and the

  9. Ground-based Observations and Atmospheric Modelling of Energetic Electron Precipitation Effects on Antarctic Mesospheric Chemistry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newnham, D.; Clilverd, M. A.; Horne, R. B.; Rodger, C. J.; Seppälä, A.; Verronen, P. T.; Andersson, M. E.; Marsh, D. R.; Hendrickx, K.; Megner, L. S.; Kovacs, T.; Feng, W.; Plane, J. M. C.

    2016-12-01

    The effect of energetic electron precipitation (EEP) on the seasonal and diurnal abundances of nitric oxide (NO) and ozone in the Antarctic middle atmosphere during March 2013 to July 2014 is investigated. Geomagnetic storm activity during this period, close to solar maximum, was driven primarily by impulsive coronal mass ejections. Near-continuous ground-based atmospheric measurements have been made by a passive millimetre-wave radiometer deployed at Halley station (75°37'S, 26°14'W, L = 4.6), Antarctica. This location is directly under the region of radiation-belt EEP, at the extremity of magnetospheric substorm-driven EEP, and deep within the polar vortex during Austral winter. Superposed epoch analyses of the ground based data, together with NO observations made by the Solar Occultation For Ice Experiment (SOFIE) onboard the Aeronomy of Ice in the Mesosphere (AIM) satellite, show enhanced mesospheric NO following moderate geomagnetic storms (Dst ≤ -50 nT). Measurements by co-located 30 MHz riometers indicate simultaneous increases in ionisation at 75-90 km directly above Halley when Kp index ≥ 4. Direct NO production by EEP in the upper mesosphere, versus downward transport of NO from the lower thermosphere, is evaluated using a new version of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model incorporating the full Sodankylä Ion Neutral Chemistry Model (WACCM SIC). Model ionization rates are derived from the Polar orbiting Operational Environmental Satellites (POES) second generation Space Environment Monitor (SEM 2) Medium Energy Proton and Electron Detector instrument (MEPED). The model data are compared with observations to quantify the impact of EEP on stratospheric and mesospheric odd nitrogen (NOx), odd hydrogen (HOx), and ozone.

  10. Modelling catchment hydrological responses in a Himalayan Lake ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    water extent of the lake barely covers 11.5 km2. (Badar and Romshoo ... Recent developments of decision support systems based on GIS and distributed hydrological models .... flow of the methodology is given in figure 2. 3.1.1 Model structure ...

  11. A sensitivity analysis for a thermomechanical model of the Antarctic ice sheet and ice shelves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baratelli, F.; Castellani, G.; Vassena, C.; Giudici, M.

    2012-04-01

    The outcomes of an ice sheet model depend on a number of parameters and physical quantities which are often estimated with large uncertainty, because of lack of sufficient experimental measurements in such remote environments. Therefore, the efforts to improve the accuracy of the predictions of ice sheet models by including more physical processes and interactions with atmosphere, hydrosphere and lithosphere can be affected by the inaccuracy of the fundamental input data. A sensitivity analysis can help to understand which are the input data that most affect the different predictions of the model. In this context, a finite difference thermomechanical ice sheet model based on the Shallow-Ice Approximation (SIA) and on the Shallow-Shelf Approximation (SSA) has been developed and applied for the simulation of the evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet and ice shelves for the last 200 000 years. The sensitivity analysis of the model outcomes (e.g., the volume of the ice sheet and of the ice shelves, the basal melt rate of the ice sheet, the mean velocity of the Ross and Ronne-Filchner ice shelves, the wet area at the base of the ice sheet) with respect to the model parameters (e.g., the basal sliding coefficient, the geothermal heat flux, the present-day surface accumulation and temperature, the mean ice shelves viscosity, the melt rate at the base of the ice shelves) has been performed by computing three synthetic numerical indices: two local sensitivity indices and a global sensitivity index. Local sensitivity indices imply a linearization of the model and neglect both non-linear and joint effects of the parameters. The global variance-based sensitivity index, instead, takes into account the complete variability of the input parameters but is usually conducted with a Monte Carlo approach which is computationally very demanding for non-linear complex models. Therefore, the global sensitivity index has been computed using a development of the model outputs in a

  12. The impact of tourists on Antarctic tardigrades: an ordination-based model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sandra J. McInnes

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Tardigrades are important members of the Antarctic biota yet little is known about their role in the soil fauna or whether they are affected by anthropogenic factors. The German Federal Environment Agency commissioned research to assess the impact of human activities on soil meiofauna at 14 localities along the Antarctic peninsula during the 2009/2010 and 2010/2011 austral summers. We used ordination techniques to re-assess the block-sampling design used to compare areas of high and low human impact, to identify which of the sampled variables were biologically relevant and/or demonstrated an anthropogenic significance. We found the most significant differences between locations, reflecting local habitat and vegetation factor, rather than within-location anthropogenic impact. We noted no evidence of exotic imports but report on new maritime Antarctic sample sites and habitats.

  13. A sediment resuspension and water quality model of Lake Okeechobee

    Science.gov (United States)

    James, R.T.; Martin, J.; Wool, T.; Wang, P.-F.

    1997-01-01

    The influence of sediment resuspension on the water quality of shallow lakes is well documented. However, a search of the literature reveals no deterministic mass-balance eutrophication models that explicitly include resuspension. We modified the Lake Okeeehobee water quality model - which uses the Water Analysis Simulation Package (WASP) to simulate algal dynamics and phosphorus, nitrogen, and oxygen cycles - to include inorganic suspended solids and algorithms that: (1) define changes in depth with changes in volume; (2) compute sediment resuspension based on bottom shear stress; (3) compute partition coefficients for ammonia and ortho-phosphorus to solids; and (4) relate light attenuation to solids concentrations. The model calibration and validation were successful with the exception of dissolved inorganic nitrogen species which did not correspond well to observed data in the validation phase. This could be attributed to an inaccurate formulation of algal nitrogen preference and/or the absence of nitrogen fixation in the model. The model correctly predicted that the lake is lightlimited from resuspended solids, and algae are primarily nitrogen limited. The model simulation suggested that biological fluxes greatly exceed external loads of dissolved nutrients; and sedimentwater interactions of organic nitrogen and phosphorus far exceed external loads. A sensitivity analysis demonstrated that parameters affecting resuspension, settling, sediment nutrient and solids concentrations, mineralization, algal productivity, and algal stoichiometry are factors requiring further study to improve our understanding of the Lake Okeechobee ecosystem.

  14. Population models of burrowing mayfly recolonization in Western Lake Erie

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madenjian, C.P.; Schloesser, D.W.; Krieger, K.A.

    1998-01-01

    Burrowing mayflies, Hexagenia spp. (H. limbata and H. rigida), began recolonizing western Lake Erie during the 1990s. Survey data for mayfly nymph densities indicated that the population experienced exponential growth between 1991 and 1997. To predict the time to full recovery of the mayfly population, we fitted logistic models, ranging in carrying capacity from 600 to 2000 nymphs/m2, to these survey data. Based on the fitted logistic curves, we forecast that the mayfly population in western Lake Erie would achieve full recovery between years 1998 and 2000, depending on the carrying capacity of the western basin. Additionally, we estimated the mortality rate of nymphs in western Lake Erie during 1994 and then applied an age-based matrix model to the mayfly population. The results of the matrix population modeling corroborated the exponential growth model application in that both methods yielded an estimate of the population growth rate, r, in excess of 0.8 yr-1. This was the first evidence that mayfly populations are capable of recolonizing large aquatic ecosystems at rates comparable with those observed in much smaller lentic ecosystems. Our model predictions should prove valuable to managers of power plant facilities along the western basin in planning for mayfly emergences and to managers of the yellow perch (Perca flavescens) fishery in western Lake Erie.

  15. New model and field data on estimates of Antarctic Bottom Water flow through the deep Vema Channel

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frey, D. I.; Fomin, V. V.; Diansky, N. A.; Morozov, E. G.; Neiman, V. G.

    2017-05-01

    We used a numerical model of the ocean circulation with a high spatial resolution to obtain estimates of the kinematic characteristics of Antarctic Bottom Water flow through the abyssal Vema Channel in the southwestern part of the Atlantic Ocean. The results of simulations correspond to the data of direct velocity measurements made at several locations in the channel. The high horizontal and vertical resolution of the model in the bottom layer allowed us to study in detail the hydrodynamics of this flow over its entire length.

  16. Antarctic firn compaction rates from repeat-track airborne radar data : II. Firn model evaluation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ligtenberg, S. R M; Medley, B.; Van Den Broeke, M. R.; Munneke, P. Kuipers

    2015-01-01

    The thickness and density of the Antarctic firn layer vary considerably in time and space, thereby contributing to ice-sheet volume and mass changes. Distinguishing between these mass and volume changes is important for ice-sheet mass-balance studies. Evolution of firn layer depth and density is

  17. Antarctic Mass Loss from GRACE from Space- and Time-Resolved Modeling with Slepian Functions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simons, F. J.; Harig, C.

    2013-12-01

    The melting of polar ice sheets is a major contributor to global sea-level rise. Antarctica is of particular interest since most of the mass loss has occurred in West Antarctica, however updated glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) models and recent mass gains in East Antarctica have reduced the continent-wide integrated decadal trend of mass loss. Here we present a spatially and temporally resolved estimation of the Antarctic ice mass change using Slepian localization functions. With a Slepian basis specifically for Antarctica, the basis functions maximize their energy on the continent and we can project the geopotential fields into a sparse set of orthogonal coefficients. By fitting polynomial functions to the limited basis coefficients we maximize signal-to-noise levels and need not perform smoothing or destriping filters common to other approaches. In addition we determine an empirical noise covariance matrix from the GRACE data to estimate the uncertainty of mass estimation. When applied to large ice sheets, as in our own recent Greenland work, this technique is able to resolve both the overall continental integrated mass trend, as well as the spatial distribution of the mass changes over time. Using CSR-RL05 GRACE data between Jan. 2003 and Jan 2013, we estimate the regional accelerations in mass change for several sub-regions and examine how the spatial pattern of mass has changed. The Amundsen Sea coast of West Antarctica has experienced a large acceleration in mass loss (-26 Gt/yr^2). While mass loss is concentrated near Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers, it has also increased along the coast further towards the Ross ice shelf.

  18. [Ecotourism exploitation model in Bita Lake Natural Reserve of Yunnan].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, G; Wang, Y; Zhong, L

    2000-12-01

    Bita lake provincial natural reserve is located in Shangri-La region of North-western Yunnan, and was set as a demonstrating area for ecotourism exploitation in 1998. After a year's exploitation construction and half a year's operation as a branch of the 99' Kunming International Horticulture Exposition to accept tourists, it was proved that the ecotourism demonstrating area attained four integrated functions of ecotourism, i.e., tourism, protection, poverty clearing and environment education. Five exploitation and management models including function zoned exploitation model, featured tourism communication model signs system designing model, local Tibetan family reception model and environmental monitoring model, were also successful, which were demonstrated and spreaded to the whole province. Bita lake provincial natural reserve could be a good sample for the ecotourism exploitation natural reserves of the whole country.

  19. Optimal control of suspended sediment distribution model of Talaga lake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ratianingsih, R.; Resnawati, Azim, Mardlijah, Widodo, B.

    2017-08-01

    Talaga Lake is one of several lakes in Central Sulawesi that potentially to be managed in multi purposes scheme because of its characteristic. The scheme is addressed not only due to the lake maintenance because of its sediment but also due to the Algae farming for its biodiesel fuel. This paper governs a suspended sediment distribution model of Talaga lake. The model is derived from the two dimensional hydrodynamic shallow water equations of the mass and momentum conservation law of sediment transport. An order reduction of the model gives six equations of hyperbolic systems of the depth, two dimension directional velocities and sediment concentration while the bed elevation as the second order of turbulent diffusion and dispersion are neglected. The system is discreted and linearized such that could be solved numerically by box-Keller method for some initial and boundary condition. The solutions shows that the downstream velocity is play a role in transversal direction of stream function flow. The downstream accumulated sediment indicate that the suspended sediment and its changing should be controlled by optimizing the downstream velocity and transversal suspended sediment changing due to the ideal algae growth need.

  20. A model for landscape development in terms of shoreline displacement, sediment dynamics, lake formation, and lake choke-up processes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brydsten, Lars

    2006-12-01

    This project expands on the study 'A mathematical model for lake ontogeny in terms of filling with sediments and macrophyte vegetation' published in SKB TR-04-09. As the title suggests, this older model focuses on lakes (existing and future lakes). This newer study extends the model to examine progress of terrestrial objects such as mires or arable land. Furthermore, this newer model could simulate progress of the areas close to the objects. These areas are divided according to their watershed boundaries. If two or more objects are situated along the same brook, the lower situated area is defined as its catchments minus the catchments of the closest higher situated object. The model encourages the study of an object situated in the sea from the time of deglaciation (c. 10,000 BP) to the time for the object due to positive shore displacement is situated on land or that a lake object has progressed to a wetland, however not longer than 18,000 AP. The model focuses on the object and its location in 100-year steps. The model is written in VisualBasic and is divided into two modules, a marine module and a lake module. The marine module deals with shoreline displacement, erosion and accumulation of postglacial fine-grained sediments and erosion of glacial clay. Inputs to the marine module are a digital elevation model (DEM), a digital map showing the extension of the objects and a marine quaternary map. The two maps are in raster formats with exactly the same formats (extension and cell sizes) as the DEM. For each time step the water depths at each pixel are calculated using a shore displacement equation. Next, the water depth changes due to sediment dynamics are calculated using the following rules; accumulation of fine-grained sediments are allowed if the pixel is situated within a future lake object; erosion of fine-grained sediment is allowed if the pixel is not within a future lake object and the marine quaternary map shows occurrence of postglacial sediments and

  1. A model for landscape development in terms of shoreline displacement, sediment dynamics, lake formation, and lake choke-up processes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brydsten, Lars [Umeaa University, Dept. of Ecology and Environmental Science (Sweden)

    2006-12-15

    This project expands on the study 'A mathematical model for lake ontogeny in terms of filling with sediments and macrophyte vegetation' published in SKB TR-04-09. As the title suggests, this older model focuses on lakes (existing and future lakes). This newer study extends the model to examine progress of terrestrial objects such as mires or arable land. Furthermore, this newer model could simulate progress of the areas close to the objects. These areas are divided according to their watershed boundaries. If two or more objects are situated along the same brook, the lower situated area is defined as its catchments minus the catchments of the closest higher situated object. The model encourages the study of an object situated in the sea from the time of deglaciation (c. 10,000 BP) to the time for the object due to positive shore displacement is situated on land or that a lake object has progressed to a wetland, however not longer than 18,000 AP. The model focuses on the object and its location in 100-year steps. The model is written in VisualBasic and is divided into two modules, a marine module and a lake module. The marine module deals with shoreline displacement, erosion and accumulation of postglacial fine-grained sediments and erosion of glacial clay. Inputs to the marine module are a digital elevation model (DEM), a digital map showing the extension of the objects and a marine quaternary map. The two maps are in raster formats with exactly the same formats (extension and cell sizes) as the DEM. For each time step the water depths at each pixel are calculated using a shore displacement equation. Next, the water depth changes due to sediment dynamics are calculated using the following rules; accumulation of fine-grained sediments are allowed if the pixel is situated within a future lake object; erosion of fine-grained sediment is allowed if the pixel is not within a future lake object and the marine quaternary map shows occurrence of postglacial

  2. Modelling present-day basal melt rates for Antarctic ice shelves using a parametrization of buoyant meltwater plumes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lazeroms, Werner M. J.; Jenkins, Adrian; Hilmar Gudmundsson, G.; van de Wal, Roderik S. W.

    2018-01-01

    Basal melting below ice shelves is a major factor in mass loss from the Antarctic Ice Sheet, which can contribute significantly to possible future sea-level rise. Therefore, it is important to have an adequate description of the basal melt rates for use in ice-dynamical models. Most current ice models use rather simple parametrizations based on the local balance of heat between ice and ocean. In this work, however, we use a recently derived parametrization of the melt rates based on a buoyant meltwater plume travelling upward beneath an ice shelf. This plume parametrization combines a non-linear ocean temperature sensitivity with an inherent geometry dependence, which is mainly described by the grounding-line depth and the local slope of the ice-shelf base. For the first time, this type of parametrization is evaluated on a two-dimensional grid covering the entire Antarctic continent. In order to apply the essentially one-dimensional parametrization to realistic ice-shelf geometries, we present an algorithm that determines effective values for the grounding-line depth and basal slope in any point beneath an ice shelf. Furthermore, since detailed knowledge of temperatures and circulation patterns in the ice-shelf cavities is sparse or absent, we construct an effective ocean temperature field from observational data with the purpose of matching (area-averaged) melt rates from the model with observed present-day melt rates. Our results qualitatively replicate large-scale observed features in basal melt rates around Antarctica, not only in terms of average values, but also in terms of the spatial pattern, with high melt rates typically occurring near the grounding line. The plume parametrization and the effective temperature field presented here are therefore promising tools for future simulations of the Antarctic Ice Sheet requiring a more realistic oceanic forcing.

  3. Simulation of Lake Surface Heat Fluxes by the Canadian Small Lake Model: Offline Performance Assessment for Future Coupling with a Regional Climate Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pernica, P.; Guerrero, J. L.; MacKay, M.; Wheater, H. S.

    2014-12-01

    Lakes strongly influence local and regional climate especially in regions where they are abundant. Development of a lake model for the purpose of integration within a regional climate model is therefore a subject of scientific interest. Of particular importance are the heat flux predictions provided by the lake model since they function as key forcings in a fully coupled atmosphere-land-lake system. The first step towards a coupled model is to validate and characterize the accuracy of the lake model over a range of conditions and to identify limitations. In this work, validation results from offline tests of the Canadian Small Lake Model; a deterministic, computationally efficient, 1D integral model, are presented. Heat fluxes (sensible and latent) and surface water temperatures simulated by the model are compared with in situ observations from two lakes; Landing Lake (NWT, Canada) and L239 (ELA, Canada) for the 2007-2009 period. Sensitivity analysis is performed to identify key parameters important for heat flux predictions. The results demonstrate the ability of the 1-D lake model to reproduce both diurnal and seasonal variations in heat fluxes and surface temperatures for the open water period. These results, in context of regional climate modelling are also discussed.

  4. Modelling hourly rates of evaporation from small lakes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. J. Granger

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents the results of a field study of open water evaporation carried out on three small lakes in Western and Northern Canada. In this case small lakes are defined as those for which the temperature above the water surface is governed by the upwind land surface conditions; that is, a continuous boundary layer exists over the lake, and large-scale atmospheric effects such as entrainment do not come into play. Lake evaporation was measured directly using eddy covariance equipment; profiles of wind speed, air temperature and humidity were also obtained over the water surfaces. Observations were made as well over the upwind land surface.

    The major factors controlling open water evaporation were examined. The study showed that for time periods shorter than daily, the open water evaporation bears no relationship to the net radiation; the wind speed is the most significant factor governing the evaporation rates, followed by the land-water temperature contrast and the land-water vapour pressure contrast. The effect of the stability on the wind field was demonstrated; relationships were developed relating the land-water wind speed contrast to the land-water temperature contrast. The open water period can be separated into two distinct evaporative regimes: the warming period in the Spring, when the land is warmer than the water, the turbulent fluxes over water are suppressed; and the cooling period, when the water is warmer than the land, the turbulent fluxes over water are enhanced.

    Relationships were developed between the hourly rates of lake evaporation and the following significant variables and parameters (wind speed, land-lake temperature and humidity contrasts, and the downwind distance from shore. The result is a relatively simple versatile model for estimating the hourly lake evaporation rates. The model was tested using two independent data sets. Results show that the modelled evaporation follows the observed values

  5. Quantifying the Variability of CH4 Emissions from Pan-Arctic Lakes with Lake Biogeochemical and Landscape Evolution Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, Z.; Zhuang, Q.

    2014-12-01

    Recent studies in the arctic and subarctic show that CH4 emissions from pan-arctic lakes are playing much more significant roles in the regional carbon cycling than previously estimated. Permafrost thawing due to pronounced warming at northern high latitudes affects lake morphology, changing its CH4 emissions. Thermokarst can enlarge the extent of artic lakes, exposing stable ancient carbon buried in the permafrost zone for degradation and changing a previously known carbon sink to a large carbon source. In some areas, the thawing of subarctic discontinuous and isolated permafrost can diminish thermokarst lakes. To date, few models have considered these important hydrological and biogeochemical processes to provide adequate estimation of CH4 emissions from these lakes. To fill this gap, we have developed a process-based climate-sensitive lake biogeochemical model and a landscape evolution model, which have been applied to quantify the state and variability of CH4 emissions from this freshwater system. Site-level experiments show the models are capable to capture the spatial and temporal variability of CH4 emissions from lakes across Siberia and Alaska. With the lake biogeochemical model solely, we estimate that the magnitude of CH4 emissions from lakes is 13.2 Tg yr-1 in the north of 60 ºN at present, which is on the same order of CH4 emissions from northern high-latitude wetlands. The maximum increment is 11.8 Tg CH4 yr-1 by the end of the 21st century when the worst warming scenario is assumed. We expect the landscape evolution model will improve the existing estimates.

  6. Digitized Onondaga Lake Dissolved Oxygen Concentrations and Model Simulated Values using Bayesian Monte Carlo Methods

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — The dataset is lake dissolved oxygen concentrations obtained form plots published by Gelda et al. (1996) and lake reaeration model simulated values using Bayesian...

  7. Combined ice core and climate-model evidence for the collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet during Marine Isotope Stage 5e.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steig, Eric J.; Huybers, Kathleen; Singh, Hansi A.; Steiger, Nathan J.; Frierson, Dargan M. W.; Popp, Trevor; White, James W. C.

    2015-04-01

    It has been speculated that collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet explains the very high eustatic sea level rise during the last interglacial period, marine isotope stage (MIS) 5e, but the evidence remains equivocal. Changes in atmospheric circulation resulting from a collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) would have significant regional impacts that should be detectable in ice core records. We conducted simulations using general circulation models (GCMs) at varying levels of complexity: a gray-radiation aquaplanet moist GCM (GRaM), the slab ocean version of GFDL-AM2 (also as an aquaplanet), and the fully-coupled version of NCAR's CESM with realistic topography. In all the experiments, decreased elevation from the removal of the WAIS leads to greater cyclonic circulation over the West Antarctic region. This creates increased advection of relatively warm marine air from the Amundsen-Bellingshausen Seas towards the South Pole, and increased cold-air advection from the East Antarctic plateau towards the Ross Sea and coastal Marie Byrd Land. The result is anomalous warming in some areas of the East Antarctic interior, and significant cooling in Marie Byrd Land. Comparison of ice core records shows good agreement with the model predictions. In particular, isotope-paleotemperature records from ice cores in East Antarctica warmed more between the previous glacial period (MIS 6) and MIS 5e than coastal Marie Byrd Land. These results add substantial support to other evidence for WAIS collapse during the last interglacial period.

  8. A new 100-m Digital Elevation Model of the Antarctic Peninsula derived from ASTER Global DEM: methods and accuracy assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. J. Cook

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available A high resolution surface topography Digital Elevation Model (DEM is required to underpin studies of the complex glacier system on the Antarctic Peninsula. A complete DEM with better than 200 m pixel size and high positional and vertical accuracy would enable mapping of all significant glacial basins and provide a dataset for glacier morphology analyses. No currently available DEM meets these specifications. We present a new 100-m DEM of the Antarctic Peninsula (63–70° S, based on ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model (GDEM data. The raw GDEM products are of high-quality on the rugged terrain and coastal-regions of the Antarctic Peninsula and have good geospatial accuracy, but they also contain large errors on ice-covered terrain and we seek to minimise these artefacts. Conventional data correction techniques do not work so we have developed a method that significantly improves the dataset, smoothing the erroneous regions and hence creating a DEM with a pixel size of 100 m that will be suitable for many glaciological applications. We evaluate the new DEM using ICESat-derived elevations, and perform horizontal and vertical accuracy assessments based on GPS positions, SPOT-5 DEMs and the Landsat Image Mosaic of Antarctica (LIMA imagery. The new DEM has a mean elevation difference of −4 m (± 25 m RMSE from ICESat (compared to −13 m mean and ±97 m RMSE for the original ASTER GDEM, and a horizontal error of less than 2 pixels, although elevation accuracies are lower on mountain peaks and steep-sided slopes. The correction method significantly reduces errors on low relief slopes and therefore the DEM can be regarded as suitable for topographical studies such as measuring the geometry and ice flow properties of glaciers on the Antarctic Peninsula. The DEM is available for download from the NSIDC website: http://nsidc.org/data/nsidc-0516.html (Diagnostic modeling of dimethylsulfide production in coastal water west of the Antarctic Peninsula

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hermann, Maria; Najjar, Raymond G.; Neeley, Aimee R.; Vila-Costa, Maria; Dacey, John W. H.; DiTullio, Giacomo, R.; Kieber, David J.; Kiene, Ronald P.; Matrai, Patricia A.; Simo, Rafel; hide

    2012-01-01

    The rate of gross biological dimethylsulfide (DMS) production at two coastal sites west of the Antarctic Peninsula, off Anvers Island, near Palmer Station, was estimated using a diagnostic approach that combined field measurements from 1 January 2006 through 1 March 2006 and a one-dimensional physical model of ocean mixing. The average DMS production rate in the upper water column (0-60 m) was estimated to be 3.1 +/- 0.6 nM/d at station B (closer to shore) and 2.7 +/- 0.6 nM/d1 at station E (further from shore). The estimated DMS replacement time was on the order of 1 d at both stations. DMS production was greater in the mixed layer than it was below the mixed layer. The average DMS production normalized to chlorophyll was 0.5 +/- nM/d)/(mg cubic m) at station B and 0.7 +/- 0.2 (nM/d)/(mg/cubic m3) at station E. When the diagnosed production rates were normalized to the observed concentrations of total dimethylsulfoniopropionate (DMSPt, the biogenic precursor of DMS), we found a remarkable similarity between our estimates at stations B and E (0.06 +/- 0.02 and 0.04 +/- 0.01 (nM DMS / d1)/(nM DMSP), respectively) and the results obtained in a previous study from a contrasting biogeochemical environment in the North Atlantic subtropical gyre (0.047 =/- 0.006 and 0.087 +/- 0.014 (nM DMS d1)/(nM DMSP) in a cyclonic and anticyclonic eddy, respectively).We propose that gross biological DMS production normalized to DMSPt might be relatively independent of the biogeochemical environment, and place our average estimate at 0.06 +/- 0.01 (nM DMS / d)/(nM DMSPt). The significance of this finding is that it can provide a means to use DMSPt measurements to extrapolate gross biological DMS production, which is extremely difficult to measure experimentally under realistic in situ conditions.

  9. Development of a zoning-based environmental-ecological-coupled model for lakes to assess lake restoration effect

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Mengjia; Zou, Changxin; Zhao, Yanwei

    2017-04-01

    Environmental/ecological models are widely used for lake management as they provide a means to understand physical, chemical and biological processes in highly complex ecosystems. Most research focused on the development of environmental (water quality) and ecological models, separately. Limited studies were developed to couple the two models, and in these limited coupled models, a lake was regarded as a whole for analysis (i.e., considering the lake to be one well-mixed box), which was appropriate for small-scale lakes and was not sufficient to capture spatial variations within middle-scale or large-scale lakes. This paper seeks to establish a zoning-based environmental-ecological-coupled model for a lake. The Baiyangdian Lake, the largest freshwater lake in Northern China, was adopted as the study case. The coupled lake models including a hydrodynamics and water quality model established by MIKE21 and a compartmental ecological model used STELLA software have been established for middle-sized Baiyangdian Lake to realize the simulation of spatial variations of ecological conditions. On the basis of the flow field distribution results generated by MIKE21 hydrodynamics model, four water area zones were used as an example for compartmental ecological model calibration and validation. The results revealed that the developed coupled lake models can reasonably reflected the changes of the key state variables although there remain some state variables that are not well represented by the model due to the low quality of field monitoring data. Monitoring sites in a compartment may not be representative of the water quality and ecological conditions in the entire compartment even though that is the intention of compartment-based model design. There was only one ecological observation from a single monitoring site for some periods. This single-measurement issue may cause large discrepancies particularly when sampled site is not representative of the whole compartment. The

  10. Mapping Sub-Antarctic Cushion Plants Using Random Forests to Combine Very High Resolution Satellite Imagery and Terrain Modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bricher, Phillippa K.; Lucieer, Arko; Shaw, Justine; Terauds, Aleks; Bergstrom, Dana M.

    2013-01-01

    Monitoring changes in the distribution and density of plant species often requires accurate and high-resolution baseline maps of those species. Detecting such change at the landscape scale is often problematic, particularly in remote areas. We examine a new technique to improve accuracy and objectivity in mapping vegetation, combining species distribution modelling and satellite image classification on a remote sub-Antarctic island. In this study, we combine spectral data from very high resolution WorldView-2 satellite imagery and terrain variables from a high resolution digital elevation model to improve mapping accuracy, in both pixel- and object-based classifications. Random forest classification was used to explore the effectiveness of these approaches on mapping the distribution of the critically endangered cushion plant Azorella macquariensis Orchard (Apiaceae) on sub-Antarctic Macquarie Island. Both pixel- and object-based classifications of the distribution of Azorella achieved very high overall validation accuracies (91.6–96.3%, κ = 0.849–0.924). Both two-class and three-class classifications were able to accurately and consistently identify the areas where Azorella was absent, indicating that these maps provide a suitable baseline for monitoring expected change in the distribution of the cushion plants. Detecting such change is critical given the threats this species is currently facing under altering environmental conditions. The method presented here has applications to monitoring a range of species, particularly in remote and isolated environments. PMID:23940805

  11. Hydrodynamic Modeling of Nokoué Lake in Benin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Josué Zandagba

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Nokoué Lake is a complex ecosystem, the understanding of which requires control of physical processes that have occurred. For this, the Surface Water Modeling System (SMS hydrodynamic model was calibrated and validated on the water depth data. The results of these simulations show a good match between the simulated and observed data for bottom roughness and turbulent exchange coefficients, of 0.02 m−1/3·s and 20 m2/s respectively. Once the ability of the model to simulate the hydrodynamics of the lake is testified, the model is used to simulate water surface elevation, exchanged flows and velocities. The simulation shows that the tidal amplitude is maximum at the inlet of the channel and decreases gradually from the inlet towards the lagoon’s main body. The propagation of the tidal wave is characterized by the dephasing and the flattening of the amplitude tide, which increases as we move away from the channel. This dephasing is characterized by a high and low tides delay of about 1 or 4 h and also depends on the tide amplitude and location. The velocities inside the lake are very low and do not exceed 0.03 m/s. The highest are obtained at the entrance of the channel. In a flood period, in contrast with the low-water period, incoming flows are higher than outflows, reinforced by the amplitude of the tide. An average renewal time of the lake has been estimated and corresponds during a flood period to 30 days for an average amplitude tide and 26.3 days on a high amplitude tide. In a low water period it is 40.2 days for an average amplitude tide and 30 days for a high amplitude tide. From the results obtained, several measures must be taken into account for the rational management of the lake water resources. These include a dam construction at the lake upstream, to control the river flows, and the dredging of the channel to facilitate exchanges with the sea.

  12. Expanding models of lake trophic state to predict cyanobacteria in lakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Background/Question/Methods: Cyanobacteria are a primary taxonomic group associated with harmful algal blooms in lakes. Understanding the drivers of cyanobacteria presence has important implications for lake management and for the protection of human and ecosystem health. Chlor...

  13. Public Lakes, Private Lakeshore: Modeling Protection of Native Aquatic Plants

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schroeder, Susan A.; Fulton, David C.

    2013-07-01

    Protection of native aquatic plants is an important proenvironmental behavior, because plant loss coupled with nutrient loading can produce changes in lake ecosystems. Removal of aquatic plants by lakeshore property owners is a diffuse behavior that may lead to cumulative impacts on lake ecosystems. This class of behavior is challenging to manage because collective impacts are not obvious to the actors. This paper distinguishes positive and negative beliefs about aquatic plants, in models derived from norm activation theory (Schwartz, Adv Exp Soc Psychol 10:221-279, 1977) and the theory of reasoned action (Fishbein and Ajzen, Belief, attitude, intention, and behavior: an introduction to theory and research, Addison-Wesley, Boston 1975), to examine protection of native aquatic plants by Minnesota lakeshore property owners. We clarify how positive and negative evaluations of native aquatic plants affect protection or removal of these plants. Results are based on a mail survey ( n = 3,115). Results suggest that positive evaluations of aquatic plants (i.e., as valuable to lake ecology) may not connect with the global attitudes and behavioral intentions that direct plant protection or removal. Lakeshore property owners' behavior related to aquatic plants may be driven more by tangible personal benefits derived from accessible, carefully managed lakeshore than intentional action taken to sustain lake ecosystems. The limited connection of positive evaluations of aquatic plants to global attitudes and behavioral intentions may reflect either lack of knowledge of what actions are needed to protect lake health and/or unwillingness to lose perceived benefits derived from lakeshore property.

  14. Public lakes, private lakeshore: Modeling protection of native aquatic plants

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schroeder, Susan A.; Fulton, David C.

    2013-01-01

    Protection of native aquatic plants is an important proenvironmental behavior, because plant loss coupled with nutrient loading can produce changes in lake ecosystems. Removal of aquatic plants by lakeshore property owners is a diffuse behavior that may lead to cumulative impacts on lake ecosystems. This class of behavior is challenging to manage because collective impacts are not obvious to the actors. This paper distinguishes positive and negative beliefs about aquatic plants, in models derived from norm activation theory (Schwartz, Adv Exp Soc Psychol 10:221–279, 1977) and the theory of reasoned action (Fishbein and Ajzen, Belief, attitude, intention, and behavior: an introduction to theory and research, Addison-Wesley, Boston 1975), to examine protection of native aquatic plants by Minnesota lakeshore property owners. We clarify how positive and negative evaluations of native aquatic plants affect protection or removal of these plants. Results are based on a mail survey (n = 3,115). Results suggest that positive evaluations of aquatic plants (i.e., as valuable to lake ecology) may not connect with the global attitudes and behavioral intentions that direct plant protection or removal. Lakeshore property owners’ behavior related to aquatic plants may be driven more by tangible personal benefits derived from accessible, carefully managed lakeshore than intentional action taken to sustain lake ecosystems. The limited connection of positive evaluations of aquatic plants to global attitudes and behavioral intentions may reflect either lack of knowledge of what actions are needed to protect lake health and/or unwillingness to lose perceived benefits derived from lakeshore property.

  15. Nonlinear Stochastic Models for Water Level Dynamics in Closed Lakes

    OpenAIRE

    Mishchenko, A.S.; Zelikin, M.I.; Zelikina, L.F.

    1995-01-01

    This paper presents the results of investigation of nonlinear mathematical models of the behavior of closed lakes using the example of the Caspian Sea. Forecasting the level of the Caspian Sea is crucial both for the economy of the region and for the region's environment. The Caspian Sea is a closed reservoir; it is well known that its level changes considerably due to a variety of factors including global climate change. A series of forecasts exists based on different methods and taking...

  16. Modeling Distribution and Abundance of Antarctic Baleen Whales Using Ships of Opportunity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rob Williams

    2006-06-01

    Full Text Available Information on animal abundance and distribution is at the cornerstone of many wildlife and conservation strategies. However, these data can be difficult and costly to obtain for cetacean species. The expense of sufficient ship time to conduct design-unbiased line transect surveys may be simply out of reach for researchers in many countries, which nonetheless grapple with problems of conservation of endangered species, by-catch of small cetaceans in commercial fisheries, and progression toward ecosystem-based fisheries management. Recently developed spatial modeling techniques show promise for estimating wildlife abundance using non-randomized surveys, but have yet to receive much field-testing in areas where designed surveys have also been conducted. Effort and sightings data were collected along 9 650 km of transects aboard ships of opportunity in the Southern Ocean during the austral summers of 2000-2001 and 2001-2002. Generalized additive models with generalized cross-validation were used to express heterogeneity of cetacean sightings as functions of spatial covariates. Models were used to map predicted densities and to estimate abundance of humpback, minke, and fin whales in the Drake Passage and along the Antarctic Peninsula. All species' distribution maps showed strong density gradients, which were robust to jackknife resampling when each of 14 trips was removed sequentially with replacement. Looped animations of model predictions of whale density illustrate uncertainty in distribution estimates in a way that is informative to non-scientists. The best abundance estimate for humpback whales was 1 829 (95% CI: 978-3 422. Abundance of fin whales was 4 487 (95% CI: 1 326-15 179 and minke whales was 1,544 (95% CI: 1,221-1,953. These estimates agreed roughly with those reported from a designed survey conducted in the region during the previous austral summer. These estimates assumed that all animals on the trackline were detected, but

  17. Antarctic science

    Science.gov (United States)

    Summerhayes, Colin

    Once upon a time, dinosaurs roamed Antarctica and swam in its seas. Since then, life evolved as the climate cooled into the ice ages. Life will no doubt continue to evolve there as the globe now warms. But nowadays, humans are having a profound and direct effect on life in Antarctica, the sub-Antarctic islands, and the surrounding Southern Ocean, which are being invaded by a wide range of alien species including microbes, algae, fungi, bryophytes, land plants, invertebrates, fish, birds, and mammals.

  18. Unravelling InSAR observed Antarctic ice-shelf flexure using 2-D elastic and viscoelastic modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wild, Christian T.; Marsh, Oliver J.; Rack, Wolfgang

    2018-04-01

    Ice-shelf grounding zones link the Antarctic ice-sheets to the ocean. Differential interferometric synthetic aperture radar (DInSAR) is commonly used to monitor grounding-line locations, but also contains information on grounding-zone ice thickness, ice properties and tidal conditions beneath the ice shelf. Here, we combine in-situ data with numerical modelling of ice-shelf flexure to investigate 2-D controls on the tidal bending pattern on the Southern McMurdo Ice Shelf. We validate our results with 9 double-differential TerraSAR-X interferograms. It is necessary to make adjustments to the tidal forcing to directly compare observations with model output and we find that when these adjustments are small (tide models are required to allow for the full exploitation of DInSAR in grounding-zone glaciology.

  19. Evaporation estimation of rift valley lakes: comparison of models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melesse, Assefa M; Abtew, Wossenu; Dessalegne, Tibebe

    2009-01-01

    Evapotranspiration (ET) accounts for a substantial amount of the water flux in the arid and semi-arid regions of the World. Accurate estimation of ET has been a challenge for hydrologists, mainly because of the spatiotemporal variability of the environmental and physical parameters governing the latent heat flux. In addition, most available ET models depend on intensive meteorological information for ET estimation. Such data are not available at the desired spatial and temporal scales in less developed and remote parts of the world. This limitation has necessitated the development of simple models that are less data intensive and provide ET estimates with acceptable level of accuracy. Remote sensing approach can also be applied to large areas where meteorological data are not available and field scale data collection is costly, time consuming and difficult. In areas like the Rift Valley regions of Ethiopia, the applicability of the Simple Method (Abtew Method) of lake evaporation estimation and surface energy balance approach using remote sensing was studied. The Simple Method and a remote sensing-based lake evaporation estimates were compared to the Penman, Energy balance, Pan, Radiation and Complementary Relationship Lake Evaporation (CRLE) methods applied in the region. Results indicate a good correspondence of the models outputs to that of the above methods. Comparison of the 1986 and 2000 monthly lake ET from the Landsat images to the Simple and Penman Methods show that the remote sensing and surface energy balance approach is promising for large scale applications to understand the spatial variation of the latent heat flux.

  1. Evaporation Estimation of Rift Valley Lakes: Comparison of Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tibebe Dessalegne

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Evapotranspiration (ET accounts for a substantial amount of the water flux in the arid and semi-arid regions of the World. Accurate estimation of ET has been a challenge for hydrologists, mainly because of the spatiotemporal variability of the environmental and physical parameters governing the latent heat flux. In addition, most available ET models depend on intensive meteorological information for ET estimation. Such data are not available at the desired spatial and temporal scales in less developed and remote parts of the world. This limitation has necessitated the development of simple models that are less data intensive and provide ET estimates with acceptable level of accuracy. Remote sensing approach can also be applied to large areas where meteorological data are not available and field scale data collection is costly, time consuming and difficult. In areas like the Rift Valley regions of Ethiopia, the applicability of the Simple Method (Abtew Method of lake evaporation estimation and surface energy balance approach using remote sensing was studied. The Simple Method and a remote sensing-based lake evaporation estimates were compared to the Penman, Energy balance, Pan, Radiation and Complementary Relationship Lake Evaporation (CRLE methods applied in the region. Results indicate a good correspondence of the models outputs to that of the above methods. Comparison of the 1986 and 2000 monthly lake ET from the Landsat images to the Simple and Penman Methods show that the remote sensing and surface energy balance approach is promising for large scale applications to understand the spatial variation of the latent heat flux.

  2. Antarctic 20th Century Accumulation Changes Based on Regional Climate Model Simulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Klaus Dethloff

    2010-01-01

    investigated on the basis of ERA-40 data and HIRHAM simulations. It is shown that the regional accumulation changes are largely driven by changes in the transient activity around the Antarctic coasts due to the varying AAO phases. During positive AAO, more transient pressure systems travelling towards the continent, and Western Antarctica and parts of South-Eastern Antarctica gain more precipitation and mass. Over central Antarctica the prevailing anticyclone causes a strengthening of polar desertification connected with a reduced surface mass balance in the northern part of East Antarctica.

  3. A recent case of Antarctic bioprospecting from Japan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Akiho Shibata

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Antarctic bioprospecting, namely the search for valuable genetic or chemical compounds in Antarctic nature, has been the subject of intense discussion within Antarctic Treaty Consultative Meetings. In this discussion, based on the so-called "end-users view point," utilizing the patent database to see how much Antarctic biological material has been used in patents, Antarctic bioprospecting has been depicted as a lucrative commercial activity operated by big multinational companies. This paper, instead, proposes an "access view point" for Antarctic bioprospecting, by examining a recent Japanese case in which scientists participating in the Japanese Antarctic Research Expedition in 2007 collected some sediment from Antarctic lakes near Syowa Station, isolated and cultured a particular fungus, and found the first evidence of the presence of antifreezing activity in oomycetes. In 2009, the scientists' affiliate institutions, including the National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology, applied for a patent on Antarctomyces psychrotrophicus Syw-1 and the antifreeze protein obtained from it. A detailed examination of this case demonstrates that the dichotomy of Antarctic bioprospecting into "commercial" and "scientific" does not reflect the reality of bioprospecting activities and, therefore, does not provide an appropriate ground for legal and policy discussion on Antarctic bioprospecting.

  4. A fuzzy approach for modelling radionuclide in lake system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Desai, H.K.; Christian, R.A.; Banerjee, J.; Patra, A.K.

    2013-01-01

    Radioactive liquid waste is generated during operation and maintenance of Pressurised Heavy Water Reactors (PHWRs). Generally low level liquid waste is diluted and then discharged into the near by water-body through blowdown water discharge line as per the standard waste management practice. The effluents from nuclear installations are treated adequately and then released in a controlled manner under strict compliance of discharge criteria. An attempt was made to predict the concentration of 3 H released from Kakrapar Atomic Power Station at Ratania Regulator, about 2.5 km away from the discharge point, where human exposure is expected. Scarcity of data and complex geometry of the lake prompted the use of Heuristic approach. Under this condition, Fuzzy rule based approach was adopted to develop a model, which could predict 3 H concentration at Ratania Regulator. Three hundred data were generated for developing the fuzzy rules, in which input parameters were water flow from lake and 3 H concentration at discharge point. The Output was 3 H concentration at Ratania Regulator. These data points were generated by multiple regression analysis of the original data. Again by using same methodology hundred data were generated for the validation of the model, which were compared against the predicted output generated by using Fuzzy Rule based approach. Root Mean Square Error of the model came out to be 1.95, which showed good agreement by Fuzzy model of natural ecosystem. -- Highlights: • Uncommon approach (Fuzzy Rule Base) of modelling radionuclide dispersion in Lake. • Predicts 3 H released from Kakrapar Atomic Power Station at a point of human exposure. • RMSE of fuzzy model is 1.95, which means, it has well imitated natural ecosystem

  5. Changes in the Global Hydrological Cycle: Lessons from Modeling Lake Levels at the Last Glacial Maximum

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lowry, D. P.; Morrill, C.

    2011-12-01

    Geologic evidence shows that lake levels in currently arid regions were higher and lakes in currently wet regions were lower during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Current hypotheses used to explain these lake level changes include the thermodynamic hypothesis, in which decreased tropospheric water vapor coupled with patterns of convergence and divergence caused dry areas to become more wet and vice versa, the dynamic hypothesis, in which shifts in the jet stream and Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) altered precipitation patterns, and the evaporation hypothesis, in which lake expansions are attributed to reduced evaporation in a colder climate. This modeling study uses the output of four climate models participating in phase 2 of the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP2) as input into a lake energy-balance model, in order to test the accuracy of the models and understand the causes of lake level changes. We model five lakes which include the Great Basin lakes, USA; Lake Petén Itzá, Guatemala; Lake Caçó, northern Brazil; Lake Tauca (Titicaca), Bolivia and Peru; and Lake Cari-Laufquen, Argentina. These lakes create a transect through the drylands of North America through the tropics and to the drylands of South America. The models accurately recreate LGM conditions in 14 out of 20 simulations, with the Great Basin lakes being the most robust and Lake Caçó being the least robust, due to model biases in portraying the ITCZ over South America. An analysis of the atmospheric moisture budget from one of the climate models shows that thermodynamic processes contribute most significantly to precipitation changes over the Great Basin, while dynamic processes are most significant for the other lakes. Lake Cari-Laufquen shows a lake expansion that is most likely attributed to reduced evaporation rather than changes in regional precipitation, suggesting that lake levels alone may not be the best indicator of how much precipitation this region

  6. LEEM - a lake energy and evaporation model user's manual

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barry, P.J.; Robertson, E.

    1983-11-01

    LEEM is a simplified one-dimensional computer model of the energy budgets of lakes. It is intended to be used operationally to estimate evaporation rates averaged over several days using synoptic meteorological data with only the initial water temperatures being specified. These may usually be taken to be 4 deg. C a few days after spring break-up. This report describes the theoretical basis of the model and the algorithms by which these are converted to computer code. The code itself is included together with an exemplary set of data cards and the corresponding output

  7. Multiple climate regimes in an idealized lake-ice-atmosphere model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sugiyama, Noriyuki; Kravtsov, Sergey; Roebber, Paul

    2018-01-01

    In recent decades, the Laurentian Great Lakes have undergone rapid surface warming with the summertime trends substantially exceeding the warming rates of surrounding land. Warming of the deepest (Lake Superior) was the strongest, and that of the shallowest (Lake Erie)—the weakest of all lakes. To investigate the dynamics of accelerated lake warming, we considered single-column and multi-column thermodynamic lake-ice models coupled to an idealized two-layer atmosphere. The variable temperature of the upper atmospheric layer—a proxy for the large-scale atmospheric forcing—consisted, in the most general case, of a linear trend mimicking the global warming and atmospheric interannual variability, both on top of the prescribed seasonal cycle of the upper-air temperature. The atmospheric boundary layer of the coupled model exchanged heat with the lake and exhibited lateral diffusive heat transports between the adjacent atmospheric columns. In simpler single-column models, we find that, for a certain range of periodic atmospheric forcing, each lake possesses two stable equilibrium seasonal cycles, which we call "regimes"—with and without lake-ice occurrence in winter and with corresponding cold and warm temperatures in the following summer, respectively, all under an identical seasonally varying external forcing. Deeper lakes exhibit larger differences in their summertime surface water temperature between the warm and cold regimes, due to their larger thermal and dynamical inertia. The regime behavior of multi-column coupled models is similar but more complex, and in some cases, they admit more than two stable equilibrium seasonal cycles, with varying degrees of wintertime ice-cover. The simulated lake response to climate change in the presence of the atmospheric noise rationalizes the observed accelerated warming of the lakes, the correlation between wintertime ice cover and next summer's lake-surface temperature, as well as higher warming trends of the

  8. Water level management of lakes connected to regulated rivers: An integrated modeling and analytical methodology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Tengfei; Mao, Jingqiao; Pan, Shunqi; Dai, Lingquan; Zhang, Peipei; Xu, Diandian; Dai, Huichao

    2018-07-01

    Reservoir operations significantly alter the hydrological regime of the downstream river and river-connected lake, which has far-reaching impacts on the lake ecosystem. To facilitate the management of lakes connected to regulated rivers, the following information must be provided: (1) the response of lake water levels to reservoir operation schedules in the near future and (2) the importance of different rivers in terms of affecting the water levels in different lake regions of interest. We develop an integrated modeling and analytical methodology for the water level management of such lakes. The data-driven method is used to model the lake level as it has the potential of producing quick and accurate predictions. A new genetic algorithm-based synchronized search is proposed to optimize input variable time lags and data-driven model parameters simultaneously. The methodology also involves the orthogonal design and range analysis for extracting the influence of an individual river from that of all the rivers. The integrated methodology is applied to the second largest freshwater lake in China, the Dongting Lake. The results show that: (1) the antecedent lake levels are of crucial importance for the current lake level prediction; (2) the selected river discharge time lags reflect the spatial heterogeneity of the rivers' impacts on lake level changes; (3) the predicted lake levels are in very good agreement with the observed data (RMSE ≤ 0.091 m; R2 ≥ 0.9986). This study demonstrates the practical potential of the integrated methodology, which can provide both the lake level responses to future dam releases and the relative contributions of different rivers to lake level changes.

  9. Identity, ecology and ecophysiology of planktic green algae dominating in ice-covered lakes on James Ross Island (northeastern Antarctic Peninsula)

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Nedbalová, Linda; Mihál, M.; Kvíderová, Jana; Procházková, L.; Řezanka, Tomáš; Elster, Josef

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 21, č. 1 (2017), s. 187-200 ISSN 1433-4909 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA14-00227S Institutional support: RVO:67985939 ; RVO:61388971 Keywords : Monoraphidium * lakes * Antarktica Subject RIV: EF - Botanics; EE - Microbiology, Virology (MBU-M) OBOR OECD: Plant sciences, botany; Microbiology (MBU-M)

  10. Freshwater lakes of Ulu Peninsula, James Ross Island, north-east Antarctic Peninsula:origin, geomorphology and physical and chemical limnology

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Nedbalová, Linda; Nývlt, D.; Kopáček, Jiří; Šobr, M.; Elster, Josef

    2013-01-01

    Roč. 25, č. 3 (2013), s. 358-372 ISSN 0954-1020 R&D Projects: GA MŠk ME 945 Institutional support: RVO:67985939 ; RVO:60077344 Keywords : Conductivity * deglaciation * lake origin Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 1.417, year: 2013

  11. Generalised additive models to investigate environmental drivers of Antarctic minke whale (Balaenoptera bonaerensis) spatial density in austral summer

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beekmans, B.W.P.M.; Forcada, J.; Murphy, E.J.; Baar, H.J.W.; Bathmann, U.V.; Fleming, A.H.

    2010-01-01

    There is a need to characterise the physical environment associated with Antarctic minke whale density in order to understand long-term changes in minke whale distribution and density in open waters of the Southern Ocean during austral summer months. To investigate environmental drivers of Antarctic

  12. Towards a tipping point? Exploring the capacity to self-regulate Antarctic tourism using agent-based modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Student, J.R.; Amelung, B.; Lamers, M.A.J.

    2016-01-01

    Antarctica attracts tourists who want to explore its unique nature and landscapes. Antarctic tourism has rapidly grown since 1991 and is currently picking up again after the recent global economic downturn. Tourism activities are subject to the rules of the Antarctic Treaty System (ATS) and the

  13. Does lake size matter? Combining morphology and process modeling to examine the contribution of lake classes to population-scale processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winslow, Luke A.; Read, Jordan S.; Hanson, Paul C.; Stanley, Emily H.

    2014-01-01

    With lake abundances in the thousands to millions, creating an intuitive understanding of the distribution of morphology and processes in lakes is challenging. To improve researchers’ understanding of large-scale lake processes, we developed a parsimonious mathematical model based on the Pareto distribution to describe the distribution of lake morphology (area, perimeter and volume). While debate continues over which mathematical representation best fits any one distribution of lake morphometric characteristics, we recognize the need for a simple, flexible model to advance understanding of how the interaction between morphometry and function dictates scaling across large populations of lakes. These models make clear the relative contribution of lakes to the total amount of lake surface area, volume, and perimeter. They also highlight the critical thresholds at which total perimeter, area and volume would be evenly distributed across lake size-classes have Pareto slopes of 0.63, 1 and 1.12, respectively. These models of morphology can be used in combination with models of process to create overarching “lake population” level models of process. To illustrate this potential, we combine the model of surface area distribution with a model of carbon mass accumulation rate. We found that even if smaller lakes contribute relatively less to total surface area than larger lakes, the increasing carbon accumulation rate with decreasing lake size is strong enough to bias the distribution of carbon mass accumulation towards smaller lakes. This analytical framework provides a relatively simple approach to upscaling morphology and process that is easily generalizable to other ecosystem processes.

  14. A fuzzy approach for modelling radionuclide in lake system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Desai, H K; Christian, R A; Banerjee, J; Patra, A K

    2013-10-01

    Radioactive liquid waste is generated during operation and maintenance of Pressurised Heavy Water Reactors (PHWRs). Generally low level liquid waste is diluted and then discharged into the near by water-body through blowdown water discharge line as per the standard waste management practice. The effluents from nuclear installations are treated adequately and then released in a controlled manner under strict compliance of discharge criteria. An attempt was made to predict the concentration of (3)H released from Kakrapar Atomic Power Station at Ratania Regulator, about 2.5 km away from the discharge point, where human exposure is expected. Scarcity of data and complex geometry of the lake prompted the use of Heuristic approach. Under this condition, Fuzzy rule based approach was adopted to develop a model, which could predict (3)H concentration at Ratania Regulator. Three hundred data were generated for developing the fuzzy rules, in which input parameters were water flow from lake and (3)H concentration at discharge point. The Output was (3)H concentration at Ratania Regulator. These data points were generated by multiple regression analysis of the original data. Again by using same methodology hundred data were generated for the validation of the model, which were compared against the predicted output generated by using Fuzzy Rule based approach. Root Mean Square Error of the model came out to be 1.95, which showed good agreement by Fuzzy model of natural ecosystem. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Modelling and water yield assessment of Lake Sibhayi | Smithers ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A yield analysis of simulated results with historical developments in the catchment for the 65-year period of observed climate record was undertaken using both a fixed minimum allowable lake level or a maximum drop from a reference lake level as criteria for system failure. Results from simulating lake levels using the ...

  16. Lake Representations in Global Climate Models: An End-User Perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rood, R. B.; Briley, L.; Steiner, A.; Wells, K.

    2017-12-01

    The weather and climate in the Great Lakes region of the United States and Canada are strongly influenced by the lakes. Within global climate models, lakes are incorporated in many ways. If one is interested in quantitative climate information for the Great Lakes, then it is a first principle requirement that end-users of climate model simulation data, whether scientists or practitioners, need to know if and how lakes are incorporated into models. We pose the basic question, how are lakes represented in CMIP models? Despite significant efforts by the climate community to document and publish basic information about climate models, it is unclear how to answer the question about lake representations? With significant knowledge of the practice of the field, then a reasonable starting point is to use the ES-DOC Comparator (https://compare.es-doc.org/ ). Once at this interface to model information, the end-user is faced with the need for more knowledge about the practice and culture of the discipline. For example, lakes are often categorized as a type of land, a counterintuitive concept. In some models, though, lakes are specified in ocean models. There is little evidence and little confidence that the information obtained through this process is complete or accurate. In fact, it is verifiably not accurate. This experience, then, motivates identifying and finding either human experts or technical documentation for each model. The conclusion from this exercise is that it can take months or longer to provide a defensible answer to if and how lakes are represented in climate models. Our experience with lake finding is that this is not a unique experience. This talk documents our experience and explores barriers we have identified and strategies for reducing those barriers.

  17. LakeMetabolizer: An R package for estimating lake metabolism from free-water oxygen using diverse statistical models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winslow, Luke; Zwart, Jacob A.; Batt, Ryan D.; Dugan, Hilary; Woolway, R. Iestyn; Corman, Jessica; Hanson, Paul C.; Read, Jordan S.

    2016-01-01

    Metabolism is a fundamental process in ecosystems that crosses multiple scales of organization from individual organisms to whole ecosystems. To improve sharing and reuse of published metabolism models, we developed LakeMetabolizer, an R package for estimating lake metabolism from in situ time series of dissolved oxygen, water temperature, and, optionally, additional environmental variables. LakeMetabolizer implements 5 different metabolism models with diverse statistical underpinnings: bookkeeping, ordinary least squares, maximum likelihood, Kalman filter, and Bayesian. Each of these 5 metabolism models can be combined with 1 of 7 models for computing the coefficient of gas exchange across the air–water interface (k). LakeMetabolizer also features a variety of supporting functions that compute conversions and implement calculations commonly applied to raw data prior to estimating metabolism (e.g., oxygen saturation and optical conversion models). These tools have been organized into an R package that contains example data, example use-cases, and function documentation. The release package version is available on the Comprehensive R Archive Network (CRAN), and the full open-source GPL-licensed code is freely available for examination and extension online. With this unified, open-source, and freely available package, we hope to improve access and facilitate the application of metabolism in studies and management of lentic ecosystems.

  18. Lake Michigan Mass Balance Study Post Audit: Integrated, Multi-media PCB Modeling and Forecasting for Lake Trout

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Lake Michigan (LM) Mass Balance Study was conducted to measure and model polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and other anthropogenic substances to gain a better understanding of the transport, fate, and effects of these substances within the system and to aid managers in the env...

  19. Optimal management of ecosystem services with pollution traps : The lake model revisited

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Zeeuw, Aart; Grass, Dieter; Xepapadeas, Anastasios

    2017-01-01

    In this paper, optimal management of the lake model and common-property outcomes are reconsidered when the lake model is extended with the slowly changing variable. New optimal trajectories are found that were hidden in the simplified analysis. Furthermore, it is shown that two Nash equilibria may

  20. Great Lakes modeling: Are the mathematics outpacing the data and our understanding of the system?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mathematical modeling in the Great Lakes has come a long way from the pioneering work done by Manhattan College in the 1970s, when the models operated on coarse computational grids (often lake-wide) and used simple eutrophication formulations. Moving forward 40 years, we are now...

  1. ANALYSIS OF MERCURY IN VERMONT AND NEW HAMPSHIRE LAKES: EVALUATION OF THE REGIONAL MERCURY CYCLING MODEL

    Science.gov (United States)

    An evaluation of the Regional Mercury Cycling Model (R-MCM, a steady-state fate and transport model used to simulate mercury concentrations in lakes) is presented based on its application to a series of 91 lakes in Vermont and New Hampshire. Visual and statistical analyses are pr...

  2. Making eco logic and models work : An integrative approach to lake ecosystem modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kuiper, Jan Jurjen

    2016-01-01

    Dynamical ecosystem models are important tools that can help ecologists understand complex systems, and turn understanding into predictions of how these systems respond to external changes. This thesis revolves around PCLake, an integrated ecosystem model of shallow lakes that is used by both

  3. Samarium-Neodymium model age and Geochemical (Sr-Nd) signature of a bedrock inclusion from lake Vostok accretion ice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delmonte, B.; Petit, J. R.; Michard, A.; Basile-Doelsch, I.; Lipenkov, V.

    2003-04-01

    We investigated properties of the basal ice from Vostok ice core as well as the sediment inclusions within the accreted ice. The Vostok ice core preserves climatic information for the last 420 kyrs down to 3310m depth, but below this depth the horizontal layers of the climatic record are disrupted by the glacier dynamics. From 3450 m to 3538 m depth thin bedrock particles, as glacial flour, are entrapped. Glacial flour is released in the northern area lake, where glacier mostly melts and contributes to sediment accumulation. In the southern area, close to Vostok station, the lake water freezes and the upstream glacial flour does not contribute to sedimentation. The accreted ice contains visible sediment inclusions down to 3608 m (accretion ice 1), while below this depth and likely down to the water interface (˜3750 m), the ice is clear (accretion ice 2). The fine inclusions (1-2mm in diameter) from Accretion Ice 1 mostly consist of fine clays and quartz aggregates and we suggest they are entrained into ice as the glacier floats over shallow depth bay then it grounds against a relief rise. Afterward the glacier freely floats over the deep lake before reaching Vostok, and accreted ice 2 is clean. Sm-Nd dating of one of two inclusions at 3570 m depth gives 1.88 (+/-0.13)Ga (DM model age), corresponding to 1.47 Ga (TCHUR), suggesting a Precambrian origin. Also the isotopic signature of such inclusion (87Sr/86Sr= 0.8232 and eNd= -16) and that of a second one (87Sr/86Sr= 0.7999 and eNd= -15) are coherent with the nature of an old continental shield. Sediments that may initially accumulate in the shallow bay prior the Antarctic glaciation, should have been eroded and exported out of the lake by the glacier movement, this assuming processes for ice accretion and for sediment entrapping operate since a long time. As the glacial flour from upstream does not contribute to sedimentation, sediments need to be renewed at the surface of the bedrock rising question about the way

  4. Revisiting Antarctic Ozone Depletion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grooß, Jens-Uwe; Tritscher, Ines; Müller, Rolf

    2015-04-01

    Antarctic ozone depletion is known for almost three decades and it has been well settled that it is caused by chlorine catalysed ozone depletion inside the polar vortex. However, there are still some details, which need to be clarified. In particular, there is a current debate on the relative importance of liquid aerosol and crystalline NAT and ice particles for chlorine activation. Particles have a threefold impact on polar chlorine chemistry, temporary removal of HNO3 from the gas-phase (uptake), permanent removal of HNO3 from the atmosphere (denitrification), and chlorine activation through heterogeneous reactions. We have performed simulations with the Chemical Lagrangian Model of the Stratosphere (CLaMS) employing a recently developed algorithm for saturation-dependent NAT nucleation for the Antarctic winters 2011 and 2012. The simulation results are compared with different satellite observations. With the help of these simulations, we investigate the role of the different processes responsible for chlorine activation and ozone depletion. Especially the sensitivity with respect to the particle type has been investigated. If temperatures are artificially forced to only allow cold binary liquid aerosol, the simulation still shows significant chlorine activation and ozone depletion. The results of the 3-D Chemical Transport Model CLaMS simulations differ from purely Lagrangian longtime trajectory box model simulations which indicates the importance of mixing processes.

  5. Distinguishing between anthropogenic and climatic impacts on lake size: a modeling approach using data from Ebinur Lake in arid northwest China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Long Ma

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Evaluation of anthropogenic and climatic impacts on lake size variation is important for maintaining ecosystem integrity and sustaining societal development. We assumed that climate and human activity are the only drivers of lake-size variation and are independent of each other. We then evaluated anthropogenic and climatic effects on hydrological processes, using a multivariate linear model. Macro-economic data were used to describe the anthropogenic impact on lake surface area in our approach. Ebinur Lake is a shallow, closed, saline lake in arid northwest China; it has shrunk at a rapid rate over the past half century. Using our new method, we explored temporal trends of anthropogenic and climatic impacts on the lake over the past 50 years. Assessment indices indicate that the model represents observed data quite well. Compared with the reference period of 1955-1960, impacts of climate change across the catchment were generally positive with respect to lake area, except for the period from 1961 to 1970. Human activity was responsible for a reduction in lake surface area of 286.8 km2 over the last 50 years. Our approach, which uses economic variables to describe the anthropogenic impact on lake surface area, enables us to explain the lake responses to climate change and human activities quantitatively.

  6. The lake foodweb: modelling predation and abiotic/biotic interactions

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Hakanson, L; Boulion, V.V

    2002-01-01

    .... LakeWeb includes the following key functional groups of organisms: phytoplankton, bacterioplankton, benthic algae, macrophytes, zoobenthos, herbivorous and predatory zooplankton, prey fish and predatory fish...

  7. Modeling Lake Storage Dynamics to support Arctic Boreal Vulnerability Experiment (ABoVE)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vimal, S.; Lettenmaier, D. P.; Smith, L. C.; Smith, S.; Bowling, L. C.; Pavelsky, T.

    2017-12-01

    The Arctic and Boreal Zone (ABZ) of Canada and Alaska includes vast areas of permafrost, lakes, and wetlands. Permafrost thawing in this area is expected to increase due to the projected rise of temperature caused by climate change. Over the long term, this may reduce overall surface water area, but in the near-term, the opposite is being observed, with rising paludification (lake/wetland expansion). One element of NASA's ABoVE field experiment is observations of lake and wetland extent and surface elevations using NASA's AirSWOT airborne interferometric radar, accompanied by a high-resolution camera. One use of the WSE retrievals will be to constrain model estimates of lake storage dynamics. Here, we compare predictions using the lake dynamics algorithm within the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) land surface scheme. The VIC lake algorithm includes representation of sub-grid topography, where the depth and area of seasonally-flooded areas are modeled as a function of topographic wetness index, basin area, and slope. The topography data used is from a new global digital elevation model, MERIT-DEM. We initially set up VIC at sites with varying permafrost conditions (i.e., no permafrost, discontinuous, continuous) in Saskatoon and Yellowknife, Canada, and Toolik Lake, Alaska. We constrained the uncalibrated model with the WSE at the time of the first ABoVE flight, and quantified the model's ability to predict WSE and ΔWSE during the time of the second flight. Finally, we evaluated the sensitivity of the VIC-lakes model and compared the three permafrost conditions. Our results quantify the sensitivity of surface water to permafrost state across the target sites. Furthermore, our evaluation of the lake modeling framework contributes to the modeling and mapping framework for lake and reservoir storage change evaluation globally as part of the SWOT mission, planned for launch in 2021.

  8. Compilation of watershed models for tributaries to the Great Lakes, United States, as of 2010, and identification of watersheds for future modeling for the Great Lakes Restoration Initiative

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coon, William F.; Murphy, Elizabeth A.; Soong, David T.; Sharpe, Jennifer B.

    2011-01-01

    As part of the Great Lakes Restoration Initiative (GLRI) during 2009–10, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) compiled a list of existing watershed models that had been created for tributaries within the United States that drain to the Great Lakes. Established Federal programs that are overseen by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) are responsible for most of the existing watershed models for specific tributaries. The NOAA Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory (GLERL) uses the Large Basin Runoff Model to provide data for the management of water levels in the Great Lakes by estimating United States and Canadian inflows to the Great Lakes from 121 large watersheds. GLERL also simulates streamflows in 34 U.S. watersheds by a grid-based model, the Distributed Large Basin Runoff Model. The NOAA National Weather Service uses the Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting model to predict flows at river forecast sites. The USACE created or funded the creation of models for at least 30 tributaries to the Great Lakes to better understand sediment erosion, transport, and aggradation processes that affect Federal navigation channels and harbors. Many of the USACE hydrologic models have been coupled with hydrodynamic and sediment-transport models that simulate the processes in the stream and harbor near the mouth of the modeled tributary. Some models either have been applied or have the capability of being applied across the entire Great Lakes Basin; they are (1) the SPAtially Referenced Regressions On Watershed attributes (SPARROW) model, which was developed by the USGS; (2) the High Impact Targeting (HIT) and Digital Watershed models, which were developed by the Institute of Water Research at Michigan State University; (3) the Long-Term Hydrologic Impact Assessment (L–THIA) model, which was developed by researchers at Purdue University; and (4) the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model, which was

  9. Report on field research of the Spanish Antarctic Campaign 2014/15: a cooperative international research project with the 56th Japanese Antarctic Research Expedition

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sakae Kudoh

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available A study on the limnological and ecological characteristics of maritime Antarctic lakes on Byers Peninsula, Livingstone Island, South Shetland Islands, West Antarctica, was conducted by the Spanish Antarctic Research Campaign during the 2014/15 season, in cooperation with the research program of the 56th Japanese Antarctic Research Expedition. Limnological surveys of three hillside lakes and three lagoons near beaches were conducted under conditions of heavy snow cover. Soils and biological samples in the catchment areas of the lakes and lagoons were also collected and analyzed. The hillside lakes were covered by thick ice and snow, which maintained winter water conditions in the lakes, such as irreversible stratification, oxygen depletion of bottom water, very weak underwater light conditions, etc., even in mid-January, although swimming zooplankton were abundant. Water samples were also collected in coastal lagoons and streams, an environment in which birds and marine mammals transport materials through the aquatic system.

  10. A dynamic model of caesium transport in lakes and their catchments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McDougall, Sandra; Jenkins, Alan (Institute of Hydrology, Wallingford (UK)); Hilton, John (Institute of Freshwater Ecology, Ambleside (UK). Windermere Lab.)

    1991-04-01

    A mathematical model has been developed to predict radiocaesium concentrations over time within individual compartments of the lake and its catchment. The lake has been divided into five compartments; catchment, lake water (epilimnion and hypolimnion during stratification), lake sediment and fish. Radiocaesium enters the lake via contaminated rainfall and catchment runoff. A proportion of this radiocaesium absorbs onto suspended solids in the lake. This proportion is represented by a distribution coefficient. Sedimentation of the suspended solids occurs at a rate defined by the areal removal coefficient and results in increased caesium concentrations in the sediment. The ingestion of radiocaesium by either water column or benthic feeding fish is described by transfer functions. The model has been tested against data collected from Esthwaite water and Windermere shortly after the Chernobyl reactor accident from May 1986 to December 1987. The model simulates observed radiocaesium concentrations in Esthwaite lake water and sediment and also in lake water, sediment and fish in Windermere. The model could form the basis of a valuable management tool for the water industry should a major airborne pollution event occur again. (author).

  11. MERGANSER - An Empirical Model to Predict Fish and Loon Mercury in New England Lakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    MERGANSER (MERcury Geo-spatial AssessmeNtS for the New England Region) is an empirical least-squares multiple regression model using mercury (Hg) deposition and readily obtainable lake and watershed features to predict fish (fillet) and common loon (blood) Hg in New England lakes...

  12. A dynamic model of caesium transport in lakes and their catchments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McDougall, Sandra; Jenkins, Alan; Hilton, John

    1991-01-01

    A mathematical model has been developed to predict radiocaesium concentrations over time within individual compartments of the lake and its catchment. The lake has been divided into five compartments; catchment, lake water (epilimnion and hypolimnion during stratification), lake sediment and fish. Radiocaesium enters the lake via contaminated rainfall and catchment runoff. A proportion of this radiocaesium absorbs onto suspended solids in the lake. This proportion is represented by a distribution coefficient. Sedimentation of the suspended solids occurs at a rate defined by the areal removal coefficient and results in increased caesium concentrations in the sediment. The ingestion of radiocaesium by either water column or benthic feeding fish is described by transfer functions. The model has been tested against data collected from Esthwaite water and Windermere shortly after the Chernobyl reactor accident from May 1986 to December 1987. The model simulates observed radiocaesium concentrations in Esthwaite lake water and sediment and also in lake water, sediment and fish in Windermere. The model could form the basis of a valuable management tool for the water industry should a major airborne pollution event occur again. (author)

  13. Large-scale dynamical influence of a gravity wave generated over the Antarctic Peninsula – regional modelling and budget analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    JOEL Arnault

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available The case study of a mountain wave triggered by the Antarctic Peninsula on 6 October 2005, which has already been documented in the literature, is chosen here to quantify the associated gravity wave forcing on the large-scale flow, with a budget analysis of the horizontal wind components and horizontal kinetic energy. In particular, a numerical simulation using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF model is compared to a control simulation with flat orography to separate the contribution of the mountain wave from that of other synoptic processes of non-orographic origin. The so-called differential budgets of horizontal wind components and horizontal kinetic energy (after subtracting the results from the simulation without orography are then averaged horizontally and vertically in the inner domain of the simulation to quantify the mountain wave dynamical influence at this scale. This allows for a quantitative analysis of the simulated mountain wave's dynamical influence, including the orographically induced pressure drag, the counterbalancing wave-induced vertical transport of momentum from the flow aloft, the momentum and energy exchanges with the outer flow at the lateral and upper boundaries, the effect of turbulent mixing, the dynamics associated with geostrophic re-adjustment of the inner flow, the deceleration of the inner flow, the secondary generation of an inertia–gravity wave and the so-called baroclinic conversion of energy between potential energy and kinetic energy.

  14. Aquatic dispersion modelling of a tritium plume in Lake Ontario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Klukas, M.H.; Moltyaner, G.L.

    1996-05-01

    Approximately 2900 kg of tritiated water, containing 2.3E+15 Bq of tritium, were released to Lake Ontario via the cooling water discharge when a leak developed in a moderator heat exchanger in Unit 1 at the Pickering Nuclear Generating Station (PNGS) on 1992 August 2. The release provided the opportunity to study the dispersion of a tritium plume in the coastal zone of Lake Ontario. Current direction over the two-week period following the release was predominantly parallel to the shore, and elevated tritium concentrations were observed up to 20 km east and 85 km west of the PNGS. Predictions of the tritium plume movement were made using current velocity measurements taken at 8-m depth, 2.5 km offshore from Darlington and using a empirical relationship where alongshore current speed is assumed to be proportional to the alongshore component of the wind speed. The tritium migration was best described using current velocity measurements. The tritium plume dispersion is modelled using the one-dimensional advection-dispersion equation. Transport parameters are the alongshore current speed and longitudinal dispersion coefficient. Longitudinal dispersion coefficients, estimated by fitting the solution of the advection-dispersion equation to measured concentration distance profiles ranged from 3.75 to 10.57 m 2 s -1 . Simulations using the fitted values of the dispersion coefficient were able to describe maximum tritium concentrations measured at water supply plants located within 25 km of Pickering to within a factor of 3. The dispersion coefficient is a function of spatial and temporal variability in current velocity and the fitted dispersion coefficients estimated here may not be suitable for predicting tritium plume dispersion under different current conditions. The sensitivity of the dispersion coefficient to variability in current conditions should be evaluated in further field experiments. (author). 13 refs., 7 tabs., 12 figs

  15. MERGANSER: an empirical model to predict fish and loon mercury in New England lakes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shanley, James B; Moore, Richard; Smith, Richard A; Miller, Eric K; Simcox, Alison; Kamman, Neil; Nacci, Diane; Robinson, Keith; Johnston, John M; Hughes, Melissa M; Johnston, Craig; Evers, David; Williams, Kate; Graham, John; King, Susannah

    2012-04-17

    MERGANSER (MERcury Geo-spatial AssessmeNtS for the New England Region) is an empirical least-squares multiple regression model using mercury (Hg) deposition and readily obtainable lake and watershed features to predict fish (fillet) and common loon (blood) Hg in New England lakes. We modeled lakes larger than 8 ha (4404 lakes), using 3470 fish (12 species) and 253 loon Hg concentrations from 420 lakes. MERGANSER predictor variables included Hg deposition, watershed alkalinity, percent wetlands, percent forest canopy, percent agriculture, drainage area, population density, mean annual air temperature, and watershed slope. The model returns fish or loon Hg for user-entered species and fish length. MERGANSER explained 63% of the variance in fish and loon Hg concentrations. MERGANSER predicted that 32-cm smallmouth bass had a median Hg concentration of 0.53 μg g(-1) (root-mean-square error 0.27 μg g(-1)) and exceeded EPA's recommended fish Hg criterion of 0.3 μg g(-1) in 90% of New England lakes. Common loon had a median Hg concentration of 1.07 μg g(-1) and was in the moderate or higher risk category of >1 μg g(-1) Hg in 58% of New England lakes. MERGANSER can be applied to target fish advisories to specific unmonitored lakes, and for scenario evaluation, such as the effect of changes in Hg deposition, land use, or warmer climate on fish and loon mercury.

  16. Modeling the global atmospheric transport and deposition of mercury to the Great Lakes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mark D. Cohen

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Mercury contamination in the Great Lakes continues to have important public health and wildlife ecotoxicology impacts, and atmospheric deposition is a significant ongoing loading pathway. The objective of this study was to estimate the amount and source-attribution for atmospheric mercury deposition to each lake, information needed to prioritize amelioration efforts. A new global, Eulerian version of the HYSPLIT-Hg model was used to simulate the 2005 global atmospheric transport and deposition of mercury to the Great Lakes. In addition to the base case, 10 alternative model configurations were used to examine sensitivity to uncertainties in atmospheric mercury chemistry and surface exchange. A novel atmospheric lifetime analysis was used to characterize fate and transport processes within the model. Model-estimated wet deposition and atmospheric concentrations of gaseous elemental mercury (Hg(0 were generally within ∼10% of measurements in the Great Lakes region. The model overestimated non-Hg(0 concentrations by a factor of 2–3, similar to other modeling studies. Potential reasons for this disagreement include model inaccuracies, differences in atmospheric Hg fractions being compared, and the measurements being biased low. Lake Erie, downwind of significant local/regional emissions sources, was estimated by the model to be the most impacted by direct anthropogenic emissions (58% of the base case total deposition, while Lake Superior, with the fewest upwind local/regional sources, was the least impacted (27%. The U.S. was the largest national contributor, followed by China, contributing 25% and 6%, respectively, on average, for the Great Lakes. The contribution of U.S. direct anthropogenic emissions to total mercury deposition varied between 46% for the base case (with a range of 24–51% over all model configurations for Lake Erie and 11% (range 6–13% for Lake Superior. These results illustrate the importance of atmospheric

  17. Modeling Refuge Effect of Submerged Macrophytes in Lake System.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lv, Dongyu; Fan, Meng; Kang, Yun; Blanco, Krystal

    2016-04-01

    This paper considers a significant problem in biological control of algae issue in ecological environment. A four-dimensional dynamic model is carefully formulated to characterize the interactions among phytoplankton, submerged macrophyte, zooplankton, and general fish class in a lake ecosystem. The predation relationship is modeled by Beddington-DeAngelis functional responses derived from the classical Holling time budget arguments. Qualitative analyses of the global dynamics show that the system can generate very rich dynamics with potentially 10 different equilibria and several bistable scenarios. We perform analysis on the existence and local stability of equilibria and explore the refuge effect of macrophyte on the zooplankton with numerical simulations on aquatic ecosystems. We also discuss effective methods of biological control used to restrain the increase of phytoplankton. Our study shows the proposed model could have rich and complex dynamics including but not limited to bistable and chaotic phenomenon. Numerical simulation results demonstrate that both the refuge constant and the density of the macrophytes are two key factors where refuge effects take place. In addition, the intraspecific competition between the macrophyte and the phytoplankton can also affect the macrophyte's refuge effect. Our analytical and simulation results suggest that macrophytes provide structure and shelter against predation for zooplankton such that it could restore the zooplankton population, and that planting macrophyte properly might achieve the purpose of controlling algae growth.

  18. Stable isotope and hydrogeochemical studies of Beaver Lake and Radok Lake, MacRobertson Land, East Antarctica

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wand, U.; Hermichen, W.D.

    1988-01-01

    Beaver Lake and Radok Lake, the largest known epishelf lake and the deepest freshwater lake on the Antarctic continent, respectively, were isotopically (δ 2 H, δ 18 O) and hydrogeochemically studied. Radok Lake is an isothermal and nonstratified, i.e. homogeneous water body, while Beaver Lake is stratified with respect to temperature, salinity and isotopic composition. The results for the latter attest to freshwater (derived from snow and glacier melt) overlying seawater. (author)

  19. Modelling assessment of oil sands pit lakes turn-over potential

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mackenzie, I.; Vandenberg, J.; Lauzon, N.; Takyi, A.

    2006-01-01

    Pit lakes form when surface mining operations are discontinued and dewatering is terminated. Their use as a treatment step for oil sands surface mining reclamation waters was discussed. The goal of the End Pit Lake Subgroup of the Cumulative Environmental Management Association is to establish guidelines that will enable operators to achieve acceptable water quality for these lakes. Although both biological and physical processes affect turn-over potential, this presentation focused on the size of pit lakes, their depth, starting lake salinity concentrations, inflow rates and inflow salinity flux. These parameters where selected because of their influence on density gradients and turn-over potential. One-dimensional and two-dimensional modelling simulations were performed to examine turnover potential for a large range of pit lake configurations and conditions. The pit lake scenarios chosen for this modelling study included a wide range of changes in 3 lake sizes (1, 4 and 8 km 2 ), 3 lake depths (5, 20 and 50 m), 2 lake starting salinities (1 and 5 parts per thousand), 2 inflow rates (2 and 10 million m 3 per year), 3 starting inflow salinity concentrations (1, 2 and 4 parts per thousand) and 2 rates of influent salinity decrease (6- and 28- year half-life). Simulations showed that autumn is the governing season for determining turn-over potential. For the scenarios examined in this study, the expelling of salt from saline water upon ice formation and the effect of fresh water loading during spring melt events were not found to be significant factors governing turn-over potential. This presentation reviewed the DYRESM, CE-QUAL-W2, and RMA models used in this study. The conclusions reached by each model was also reviewed along with ongoing follow-up work

  20. Development of a CE-QUAL-W2 temperature model for Crystal Springs Lake, Portland, Oregon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buccola, Norman L.; Stonewall, Adam J.

    2016-05-19

    During summer 2014, lake level, streamflow, and water temperature in and around Crystal Springs Lake in Portland, Oregon, were measured by the U.S. Geological Survey and the City of Portland Bureau of Environmental Services to better understand the effect of the lake on Crystal Springs Creek and Johnson Creek downstream. Johnson Creek is listed as an impaired water body for temperature by the Oregon Department of Environmental Quality (ODEQ), as required by section 303(d) of the Clean Water Act. A temperature total maximum daily load applies to all streams in the Johnson Creek watershed, including Crystal Springs Creek. Summer water temperatures downstream of Crystal Springs Lake and the Golf Pond regularly exceed the ODEQ numeric criterion of 64.4 °F (18.0 °C) for salmonid rearing and migration. To better understand temperature contributions of this system, the U.S. Geological Survey developed two-dimensional hydrodynamic water temperature models of Crystal Springs Lake and the Golf Pond. Model grids were developed to closely resemble the bathymetry of the lake and pond using data from a 2014 survey. The calibrated models simulated surface water elevations to within 0.06 foot (0.02 meter) and outflow water temperature to within 1.08 °F (0.60 °C). Streamflow, water temperature, and lake elevation data collected during summer 2014 supplied the boundary and reference conditions for the model. Measured discrepancies between outflow and inflow from the lake, assumed to be mostly from unknown and diffuse springs under the lake, accounted for about 46 percent of the total inflow to the lake.

  1. Estimating future temperature maxima in lakes across the United States using a surrogate modeling approach.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jonathan B Butcher

    Full Text Available A warming climate increases thermal inputs to lakes with potential implications for water quality and aquatic ecosystems. In a previous study, we used a dynamic water column temperature and mixing simulation model to simulate chronic (7-day average maximum temperatures under a range of potential future climate projections at selected sites representative of different U.S. regions. Here, to extend results to lakes where dynamic models have not been developed, we apply a novel machine learning approach that uses Gaussian Process regression to describe the model response surface as a function of simplified lake characteristics (depth, surface area, water clarity and climate forcing (winter and summer air temperatures and potential evapotranspiration. We use this approach to extrapolate predictions from the simulation model to the statistical sample of U.S. lakes in the National Lakes Assessment (NLA database. Results provide a national-scale scoping assessment of the potential thermal risk to lake water quality and ecosystems across the U.S. We suggest a small fraction of lakes will experience less risk of summer thermal stress events due to changes in stratification and mixing dynamics, but most will experience increases. The percentage of lakes in the NLA with simulated 7-day average maximum water temperatures in excess of 30°C is projected to increase from less than 2% to approximately 22% by the end of the 21st century, which could significantly reduce the number of lakes that can support cold water fisheries. Site-specific analysis of the full range of factors that influence thermal profiles in individual lakes is needed to develop appropriate adaptation strategies.

  2. Antarctic snow and global climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Granberg, H.B.

    2001-01-01

    Global circulation models (GCM) indicate that global warming will be most pronounced at polar regions and high latitudes, causing concern about the stability of the Antarctic ice cap. A project entitled the Seasonal Snow in Antarctica examined the properties of the near surface snow to determine the current conditions that influence snow cover development. The goal was to assess the response of the snow cover in Queen Maud Land (QML) to an increased atmospheric carbon dioxide content. The Antarctic snow cover in QML was examined as part of the FINNARP expeditions in 1999 and 2000 which examined the processes that influence the snow cover. Its energy and mass balance were also assessed by examining the near surface snow strata in shallow (1-2 m) pits and by taking measurements of environmental variables. This made it possible to determine if the glacier is in danger of melting at this northerly location in the Antarctic. The study also made it possible to determine which variables need to change and by how much, for significant melting to occur. It was shown that the Antarctic anticyclone creates particular conditions that protect the snow cover from melting. The anticyclone brings dry air from the stratosphere during most of the year and is exempt from the water vapour feedback. It was concluded that even a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide will not produce major snow melt runoff. 8 refs

  3. Antarctic research today

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hempel, G.

    1982-01-01

    With the appetite for living and dead natural resources, the political and economical interest concerning the Antarctic increases throughout the world. There are three interrelated main subjects accounting for the international interest: The shelf tectonic puzzle of the original continent of Gondwana, where the Antarctic is situated in the centre, between Australia, South Africa and South America, and the hopes concerning the existence of mineral resources under the ice of the Antarctic are based thereon. The Antarctic forms the biggest unified living space of the world. (orig.)

  4. Modeling the GLOF Hazard Process Chain at Imja Lake in the Nepal Himalaya

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lala, J.; McKinney, D. C.; Rounce, D.

    2017-12-01

    The Hindu Kush-Himalaya region contains more glacial ice than any other non-polar region on earth. Many glacial lakes in Nepal are held in place by natural moraine dams, which are inherently unstable. Avalanches or landslides entering glacial lakes can cause tsunami-like waves that can overtop the moraines and trigger glacial lake outburst floods (GLOF). Mass loss at the Imja glacier is the highest in the Mount Everest region, and contributes to the expansion of Imja Tsho, a lake with several villages downstream. A GLOF from the lake might destroy both property and human life, making an understanding of flood triggering processes beneficial for both the downstream villages and other GLOF-prone areas globally. The process chain for an avalanche-induced GLOF was modeled numerically. The volume and velocity of debris from avalanches entering various future lake extents were calculated using RAMMS. Resulting waves and downstream flooding were simulated using BASEMENT to evaluate erosion at the terminal moraine. Wave characteristics in BASEMENT were validated with empirical equations to ensure the proper transfer of momentum from the avalanche to the lake. Moraine erosion was determined for two geomorphologic scenarios: a site-specific scenario using field samples, and a worst-case scenario based on past literature. Both cases resulted in no flooding outside the river channel at downstream villages. Worst-case scenario geomorphology resulted in increased channelization of the lake outlet and some moraine erosion but no catastrophic collapse. Site-specific data yielded similar results but with even less erosion and downstream discharge. While the models confirmed that Imja Tsho is unlikely to produce a catastrophic GLOF in the near future, they also highlight the importance of continued monitoring of the lake. Furthermore, the ease and flexibility of these methods allows for their adoption by a wide range of stakeholders for modeling other high-risk lakes.

  5. Examining the utility of satellite-based wind sheltering estimates for lake hydrodynamic modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Den Hoek, Jamon; Read, Jordan S.; Winslow, Luke A.; Montesano, Paul; Markfort, Corey D.

    2015-01-01

    Satellite-based measurements of vegetation canopy structure have been in common use for the last decade but have never been used to estimate canopy's impact on wind sheltering of individual lakes. Wind sheltering is caused by slower winds in the wake of topography and shoreline obstacles (e.g. forest canopy) and influences heat loss and the flux of wind-driven mixing energy into lakes, which control lake temperatures and indirectly structure lake ecosystem processes, including carbon cycling and thermal habitat partitioning. Lakeshore wind sheltering has often been parameterized by lake surface area but such empirical relationships are only based on forested lakeshores and overlook the contributions of local land cover and terrain to wind sheltering. This study is the first to examine the utility of satellite imagery-derived broad-scale estimates of wind sheltering across a diversity of land covers. Using 30 m spatial resolution ASTER GDEM2 elevation data, the mean sheltering height, hs, being the combination of local topographic rise and canopy height above the lake surface, is calculated within 100 m-wide buffers surrounding 76,000 lakes in the U.S. state of Wisconsin. Uncertainty of GDEM2-derived hs was compared to SRTM-, high-resolution G-LiHT lidar-, and ICESat-derived estimates of hs, respective influences of land cover type and buffer width on hsare examined; and the effect of including satellite-based hs on the accuracy of a statewide lake hydrodynamic model was discussed. Though GDEM2 hs uncertainty was comparable to or better than other satellite-based measures of hs, its higher spatial resolution and broader spatial coverage allowed more lakes to be included in modeling efforts. GDEM2 was shown to offer superior utility for estimating hs compared to other satellite-derived data, but was limited by its consistent underestimation of hs, inability to detect within-buffer hs variability, and differing accuracy across land cover types. Nonetheless

  6. Results of photochemical modeling sensitivity analyses in the Lake Michigan region: Current status of Lake Michigan Ozone Control Program (LMOP) modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dolwick, P.D. [Lake Michigan Air Directors Consortium, Des Plaines, IL (United States); Kaleel, R.J. [Illinois Environmental Protection Agency, Springfield, IL (United States); Majewski, M.A. [Wisconsin Dept. of Natural Resources, Madison, WI (United States)

    1994-12-31

    The four states that border Lake Michigan are cooperatively applying a state-of-the-art nested photochemical grid model to assess the effects of potential emission control strategies on reducing elevated tropospheric ozone concentrations in the region to levels below the national ambient air quality standard. In order to provide an extensive database to support the application of the photochemical model, a substantial data collection effort known as the Lake Michigan Ozone Study (LMOS) was completed during the summer of 1991. The Lake Michigan Ozone Control Program (LMOP) was established by the States of Illinois, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Indiana to carry out the application of the modeling system developed from the LMOS, in terms of developing the attainment demonstrations required from this area by the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990.

  7. A predictive model for the behavior of radionuclides in lake systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Monte, L.

    1993-01-01

    This paper describes a predictive model for the behavior of 137Cs in lacustrine systems. The model was tested by comparing its predictions to contamination data collected in various lakes in Europe and North America. The migration of 137Cs from catchment basin and from bottom sediments to lake water was discussed in detail; these two factors influence the time behavior of contamination in lake water. The contributions to the levels of radionuclide concentrations in water, due to the above factors, generally increase in the long run. The uncertainty of the model, used as a generic tool for prediction of the levels of contamination in lake water, was evaluated. Data sets of water contamination analyzed in the present work suggest that the model uncertainty, at a 68% confidence level, is a factor 1.9

  8. Study of tributary inflows in Lake Iseo with a rotating physical model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marco Pilotti

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available The influence of Coriolis force on the currents of large lakes is well acknowledged; very few contributions, however, investigate this aspect in medium-size lakes where its relevance could be questionable. In order to study the area of influence of the two major tributary rivers in Lake Iseo, a rotating vertically distorted physical model of the northern part of this lake was prepared and used, respecting both Froude and Rossby similarity. The model has a horizontal length scale factor of 8000 and a vertical scale factor of 500 and was used both in homogeneous and in thermally stratified conditions. We explored the pattern of water circulation in front of the entrance mouth for different hydrologic scenarios at the beginning of spring and in summer. We neglected the influence of winds. The primary purposes of the model were twofold: i to increase our level of knowledge of the hydrodynamics of Lake Iseo by verifying the occurrence of dynamical effects related to the Earth’s rotation on the plume of the two tributaries that enter the northern part of the lake and ii to identify the areas of the lake that can be directly influenced by the tributaries’ waters, in order to provide guidance on water quality monitoring in zones of relevant environmental and touristic value. The results of the physical model confirm the relevant role played by the Coriolis force in the northern part of the lake. Under ordinary flow conditions, the model shows a systematic deflection of the inflowing waters towards the western shore of the lake. The inflow triggers a clockwise gyre within the Lovere bay, to the West of the inflow, and a slow counter-clockwise gyre, to the East of the inflow, that returns water towards the river mouth along the eastern shore. For discharges with higher return period, when only the contribution by Oglio River is relevant, the effect of the Earth’s rotation weakens in the entrance zone and the plume has a more rectilinear pattern

  9. MERGANSER - A Predictive Model of Mercury in Fish and Loons in New England Lakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, R. B.; Shanley, J. B.; Smith, R. A.; Miller, E. K.; Simcox, A.; Kamman, N. C.; Nacci, D. E.; Robinson, K. W.; Johnston, J. M.; Hughes, M.; Johnston, C. M.; Williams, K.; Graham, J.; King, S.

    2010-12-01

    MERGANSER (MERcury Geo-spatial AssessmeNtS for the New England Region) is an empirical least squares multiple regression model using atmospheric deposition of mercury (Hg) and readily obtainable lake and watershed features to predict fish and common loon Hg in New England lakes. We modeled lakes larger than 8 ha and with drainage area completely within the USA (4404 lakes), using 3827 fish (12 species) and loon Hg values from 420 lakes. MERGANSER predictor variables included Hg deposition, watershed alkalinity, percent wetlands, percent forest canopy, percent agriculture, drainage area, population, mean annual temperature and watershed slope. The model returns fish tissue or loon blood Hg for user-entered species and length. MERGANSER explained 63% of the variance in fish fillet and loon Hg concentrations. MERGANSER predicted that 32-cm small mouth bass had a median Hg concentration of 0.53 µg g-1 and exceeded EPA’s maximum contaminant level (MCL) of 0.3 µg/g Hg in 90% of New England lakes. Common loon had a median Hg concentration of 1.07 µg g-1 and was in the moderate or higher risk category of >1 µg/g Hg in 58% of New England lakes.

  10. A mathematical model for lake ontogeny in terms of filling with sediments and macrophyte vegetation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brydsten, Lars

    2004-05-01

    A mathematical model for simulation of lake basin filling processes in areas with positive shore displacement was constructed. The model was calibrated using sediment and catchments data from eight existing lake basins situated in the northern coastal area of the province of Uppland, Sweden. The lake basin filling processes were separated into three phases: basin filling with wave-washed material (silt, silty sand or sand), filling with fine-grained material during the shallow gulf and lake stages, respectively, and filling with vegetation during the lake stage. The basin filling rates for wave-washed material were generally low but varied considerably both between and within lakes. The mean basin filling rate of wave-washed material was 4.1%. The volume of inorganic sediments produced, and basin filling rates during the shallow gulf and lake phases were determined for all the eight lakes. The relationship between basin filling rate and parameters describing the catchments, the former postglacial basins and the lakes, respectively, was determined using multiple regression analysis. The basin filling rate with inorganic sediments was best described by parameters related to former postglacial basin morphometry and current lake morphometry, e.g. basin volume, lake volume, and lake area. The goodness of fit turned out to be 0.99 for a simple regression with basin volume as the sole independent variable. The basin filling with vegetation (Phragmites australis followed by Sphagnum spp.) was treated as a 2-dimensional process. A dataset with 84 bogs was selected from a digital soil map. The ages of the bogs were calculated using a digital elevation map and an equation for shore displacement. The choke-up rate was then calculated by dividing the area of the bogs with their age. A strong exponential relationship exists between areas of the bogs and choke-up rat, and this relationship was then used in the model. The resulting model starts by filling the former coastal basin

  11. A mathematical model for lake ontogeny in terms of filling with sediments and macrophyte vegetation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brydsten, Lars [Umeaa Univ. (Sweden). Dept. of Biology and Environmental Science

    2004-05-01

    A mathematical model for simulation of lake basin filling processes in areas with positive shore displacement was constructed. The model was calibrated using sediment and catchments data from eight existing lake basins situated in the northern coastal area of the province of Uppland, Sweden. The lake basin filling processes were separated into three phases: basin filling with wave-washed material (silt, silty sand or sand), filling with fine-grained material during the shallow gulf and lake stages, respectively, and filling with vegetation during the lake stage. The basin filling rates for wave-washed material were generally low but varied considerably both between and within lakes. The mean basin filling rate of wave-washed material was 4.1%. The volume of inorganic sediments produced, and basin filling rates during the shallow gulf and lake phases were determined for all the eight lakes. The relationship between basin filling rate and parameters describing the catchments, the former postglacial basins and the lakes, respectively, was determined using multiple regression analysis. The basin filling rate with inorganic sediments was best described by parameters related to former postglacial basin morphometry and current lake morphometry, e.g. basin volume, lake volume, and lake area. The goodness of fit turned out to be 0.99 for a simple regression with basin volume as the sole independent variable. The basin filling with vegetation (Phragmites australis followed by Sphagnum spp.) was treated as a 2-dimensional process. A dataset with 84 bogs was selected from a digital soil map. The ages of the bogs were calculated using a digital elevation map and an equation for shore displacement. The choke-up rate was then calculated by dividing the area of the bogs with their age. A strong exponential relationship exists between areas of the bogs and choke-up rat, and this relationship was then used in the model. The resulting model starts by filling the former coastal basin

  12. Spatial heterogeneity in geothermally-influenced lakes derived from atmospherically corrected Landsat thermal imagery and three-dimensional hydrodynamic modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Allan, Mathew G; Hamilton, David P.; Trolle, Dennis

    2016-01-01

    Atmospheric correction of Landsat 7 thermal data was carried out for the purpose of retrieval of lake skin water temperature in Rotorua lakes, and Lake Taupo, North Island, New Zealand. The effect of the atmosphere was modelled using four sources of atmospheric profile data as input to the MODera...

  13. Antarctic news clips, 1991

    Science.gov (United States)

    1991-08-01

    Published stories are presented that sample a year's news coverage of Antarctica. The intent is to provide the U.S. Antarctic Program participants with a digest of current issues as presented by a variety of writers and popular publications. The subject areas covered include the following: earth science; ice studies; stratospheric ozone; astrophysics; life science; operations; education; antarctic treaty issues; and tourism

  14. Hydrologic behaviour of the Lake of Monate (Italy): a parsimonious modelling strategy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tomesani, Giulia; Soligno, Irene; Castellarin, Attilio; Baratti, Emanuele; Cervi, Federico; Montanari, Alberto

    2016-04-01

    The Lake of Monate (province of Varese, Northern Italy), is a unique example of ecosystem in equilibrium. The lake water quality is deemed excellent notwithstanding the intensive agricultural cultivation, industrial assets and mining activities characterising the surrounding areas. The lake has a true touristic vocation and is the only swimmable water body of the province of Varese, which counts several natural lakes. Lake of Monate has no tributary and its overall watershed area is equal to c.a. 6.6 km2 including the lake surface (i.e. 2.6 km2), of which 3.3 out of c.a. 4.0 km2 belong to the topographical watershed, while the remaining 0.7 km2 belong to the underground watershed. The latter is larger than the topographical watershed due to the presence of moraine formations on top of the limestone bedrock. The local administration recently promoted an intensive environmental monitoring campaign that aims to reach a better understanding of the hydrology of the lake and the subsurface water fluxes. The monitoring campaign started in October 2013 and, as a result, several meteoclimatic and hydrologic data have been collected up to now at daily and hourly timescales. Our study focuses on a preliminary representation of the hydrological behaviour of the lake through a modified version of HyMOD, a conceptual 5-parameter lumped rainfall-runoff model based on the probability-distributed soil storage capacity. The modified model is a semi-distributed application of HyMOD that uses the same five parameters of the original version and simulates the rainfall-runoff transformation for the whole lake watershed at daily time scale in terms of: direct precipitation on, and evaporation from, the lake surface; overall lake inflow, by separating the runoff component (topographic watershed) from the groundwater component (overall watershed); lake water-level oscillation; streamflow at the lake outlet. We used the first year of hydrometeorological observations as calibration data and

  15. Monitoring of Bashkara glacial lakes (the Central Caucasus) and modelling of their potential outburst.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krylenko, I.; Norin, S.; Petrakov, D.; Tutubalina, O.; Chernomorets, S.

    2009-04-01

    models, based on solving of two-dimensional Saint-Venant equations -"River" (the Russia, author V.Belikov) and "Flo-2D" (the USA, authors J.S.O'Brien, R.Garcia) were used. The "River" model is based on the irregular triangular grid, therefore it is possible to calculate flow in details. On the other hand there is no debris flow block in this model yet and "Flo-2D" was applied to calculate potential debris flow parameters, because transformation of flood into debris flow is likely here. Input data for simulation were following: digital terrain model of Adylsu valley, made on the on the basis of map with scale 1:25000, outburst hydrograph, calculated for case of englacial drainage channels formation (Vinogradov's model, Russia), some empirical relationships between volume of the glacial lake and maximum discharge of outburst (i.e. Clague and Mathews, Walder and Costa) were also applied. The mean value of the maximum discharge for potential outburst obtained by different methods was about 150 m3 /c. According to results of hydrodynamic modelling, movement of flood wave downstream the valley will be fast, peak of flood will cover distance from upper part of valley to lowest (8 km) for about half an hour. The depth of the flow on the floodplain is about 1-1.5 m and could reach 6 m in some sites. There are hotel, large camping site and several bridges in the hazardous zone. In 2008 early warning system was designed and installed at the Bashkara lake.

  16. Sustainable fisheries in shallow lakes: an independent empirical test of the Chinese mitten crab yield model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Haijun; Liang, Xiaomin; Wang, Hongzhu

    2017-07-01

    Next to excessive nutrient loading, intensive aquaculture is one of the major anthropogenic impacts threatening lake ecosystems. In China, particularly in the shallow lakes of mid-lower Changjiang (Yangtze) River, continuous overstocking of the Chinese mitten crab ( Eriocheir sinensis) could deteriorate water quality and exhaust natural resources. A series of crab yield models and a general optimum-stocking rate model have been established, which seek to benefit both crab culture and the environment. In this research, independent investigations were carried out to evaluate the crab yield models and modify the optimum-stocking model. Low percentage errors (average 47%, median 36%) between observed and calculated crab yields were obtained. Specific values were defined for adult crab body mass (135 g/ind.) and recapture rate (18% and 30% in lakes with submerged macrophyte biomass above and below 1 000 g/m2) to modify the optimum-stocking model. Analysis based on the modified optimum-stocking model indicated that the actual stocking rates in most lakes were much higher than the calculated optimum-stocking rates. This implies that, for most lakes, the current stocking rates should be greatly reduced to maintain healthy lake ecosystems.

  17. PREDICTED SEDIMENTARY SECTION OF SUBGLACIAL LAKE VOSTOK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. I. Leychenkov

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available In early February 2012, the drill hole at the Vostok Station encountered theLakeVostokwater. This step is important to study the lake composition including possible microbial life and to model subglacial environments however, the next ambitious target of the Vostok Drilling Project is sampling of bottom sediments, which contain the unique record of ice sheet evolution and environmental changes in centralAntarcticafor millions of years. In this connection, the forecast of sedimentary succession based on existing geophysical data, study of mineral inclusions in the accretion ice cores and tectonic models is important task. Interpretation of Airborne geophysical data suggests thatLakeVostokis the part of spacious rift system, which exists at least from Cretaceous. Reflection and refraction seismic experiments conducted in the southern part ofLakeVostokshow very thin (200–300 m stratified sedimentary cover overlying crystalline basement with velocity of 6.0–6.2 km/s. At present, deposition in southernLakeVostokis absent and similar conditions occurred likely at least last3 m.y. when ice sheet aboveLakeVostokchanged insignificantly. It can be also inferred that from the Late Miocene the rate of deposition inLakeVostokwas extremely low and so the most of sedimentary section is older being possibly of Oligocene to early to middle Miocene age when ice sheet oscillated and deposition was more vigorous. If so, the sampling of upper few meters of this condensed section is very informative in terms of history of Antarctic glaciation. Small thickness of sedimentary cover raises a question about existence of lake (rift depression during preglacial and early glacial times.

  18. Estimation of Transport Trajectory and Residence Time in Large River–Lake Systems: Application to Poyang Lake (China Using a Combined Model Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yunliang Li

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The biochemical processes and associated water quality in many lakes mainly depend on their transport behaviors. Most existing methodologies for investigating transport behaviors are based on physically based numerical models. The pollutant transport trajectory and residence time of Poyang Lake are thought to have important implications for the steadily deteriorating water quality and the associated rapid environmental changes during the flood period. This study used a hydrodynamic model (MIKE 21 in conjunction with transport and particle-tracking sub-models to provide comprehensive investigation of transport behaviors in Poyang Lake. Model simulations reveal that the lake’s prevailing water flow patterns cause a unique transport trajectory that primarily develops from the catchment river mouths to the downstream area along the lake’s main flow channels, similar to a river-transport behavior. Particle tracking results show that the mean residence time of the lake is 89 days during July–September. The effect of the Yangtze River (the effluent of the lake on the residence time is stronger than that of the catchment river inflows. The current study represents a first attempt to use a combined model approach to provide insights into the transport behaviors for a large river–lake system, given proposals to manage the pollutant inputs both directly to the lake and catchment rivers.

  19. A multi-source satellite data approach for modelling Lake Turkana water level: calibration and validation using satellite altimetry data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. M. Velpuri

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Lake Turkana is one of the largest desert lakes in the world and is characterized by high degrees of inter- and intra-annual fluctuations. The hydrology and water balance of this lake have not been well understood due to its remote location and unavailability of reliable ground truth datasets. Managing surface water resources is a great challenge in areas where in-situ data are either limited or unavailable. In this study, multi-source satellite-driven data such as satellite-based rainfall estimates, modelled runoff, evapotranspiration, and a digital elevation dataset were used to model Lake Turkana water levels from 1998 to 2009. Due to the unavailability of reliable lake level data, an approach is presented to calibrate and validate the water balance model of Lake Turkana using a composite lake level product of TOPEX/Poseidon, Jason-1, and ENVISAT satellite altimetry data. Model validation results showed that the satellite-driven water balance model can satisfactorily capture the patterns and seasonal variations of the Lake Turkana water level fluctuations with a Pearson's correlation coefficient of 0.90 and a Nash-Sutcliffe Coefficient of Efficiency (NSCE of 0.80 during the validation period (2004–2009. Model error estimates were within 10% of the natural variability of the lake. Our analysis indicated that fluctuations in Lake Turkana water levels are mainly driven by lake inflows and over-the-lake evaporation. Over-the-lake rainfall contributes only up to 30% of lake evaporative demand. During the modelling time period, Lake Turkana showed seasonal variations of 1–2 m. The lake level fluctuated in the range up to 4 m between the years 1998–2009. This study demonstrated the usefulness of satellite altimetry data to calibrate and validate the satellite-driven hydrological model for Lake Turkana without using any in-situ data. Furthermore, for Lake Turkana, we identified and outlined opportunities and challenges of using a calibrated

  20. A multi-source satellite data approach for modelling Lake Turkana water level: Calibration and validation using satellite altimetry data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Velpuri, N.M.; Senay, G.B.; Asante, K.O.

    2012-01-01

    Lake Turkana is one of the largest desert lakes in the world and is characterized by high degrees of interand intra-annual fluctuations. The hydrology and water balance of this lake have not been well understood due to its remote location and unavailability of reliable ground truth datasets. Managing surface water resources is a great challenge in areas where in-situ data are either limited or unavailable. In this study, multi-source satellite-driven data such as satellite-based rainfall estimates, modelled runoff, evapotranspiration, and a digital elevation dataset were used to model Lake Turkana water levels from 1998 to 2009. Due to the unavailability of reliable lake level data, an approach is presented to calibrate and validate the water balance model of Lake Turkana using a composite lake level product of TOPEX/Poseidon, Jason-1, and ENVISAT satellite altimetry data. Model validation results showed that the satellitedriven water balance model can satisfactorily capture the patterns and seasonal variations of the Lake Turkana water level fluctuations with a Pearson's correlation coefficient of 0.90 and a Nash-Sutcliffe Coefficient of Efficiency (NSCE) of 0.80 during the validation period (2004-2009). Model error estimates were within 10% of the natural variability of the lake. Our analysis indicated that fluctuations in Lake Turkana water levels are mainly driven by lake inflows and over-the-lake evaporation. Over-the-lake rainfall contributes only up to 30% of lake evaporative demand. During the modelling time period, Lake Turkana showed seasonal variations of 1-2m. The lake level fluctuated in the range up to 4m between the years 1998-2009. This study demonstrated the usefulness of satellite altimetry data to calibrate and validate the satellite-driven hydrological model for Lake Turkana without using any in-situ data. Furthermore, for Lake Turkana, we identified and outlined opportunities and challenges of using a calibrated satellite-driven water balance

  1. The Model of Lake Operation in Water Transfer Projects Based on the Theory of Water- right

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bi-peng, Yan; Chao, Liu; Fang-ping, Tang

    the lake operation is a very important content in Water Transfer Projects. The previous studies have not any related to water-right and water- price previous. In this paper, water right is divided into three parts, one is initialization waterright, another is by investment, and the third is government's water- right re-distribution. The water-right distribution model is also build. After analyzing the cost in water transfer project, a model and computation method for the capacity price as well as quantity price is proposed. The model of lake operation in water transfer projects base on the theory of water- right is also build. The simulation regulation for the lake was carried out by using historical data and Genetic Algorithms. Water supply and impoundment control line of the lake was proposed. The result can be used by south to north water transfer projects.

  2. Evaluating the behavior of polychlorinated biphenyl compounds in Lake Superior using a dynamic multimedia model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khan, T.; Perlinger, J. A.; Urban, N. R.

    2017-12-01

    Certain toxic, persistent, bioaccumulative, and semivolatile compounds known as atmosphere-surface exchangeable pollutants or ASEPs are emitted into the environment by primary sources, are transported, deposited to water surfaces, and can be later re-emitted causing the water to act as a secondary source. Polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) compounds, a class of ASEPs, are of major concern in the Laurentian Great Lakes because of their historical use primarily as additives to oils and industrial fluids, and discharge from industrial sources. Following the ban on production in the U.S. in 1979, atmospheric concentrations of PCBs in the Lake Superior region decreased rapidly. Subsequently, PCB concentrations in the lake surface water also reached near equilibrium as the atmospheric levels of PCBs declined. However, previous studies on long-term PCB levels and trends in lake trout and walleye suggested that the initial rate of decline of PCB concentrations in fish has leveled off in Lake Superior. In this study, a dynamic multimedia flux model was developed with the objective to investigate the observed levelling off of PCB concentrations in Lake Superior fish. The model structure consists of two water layers (the epilimnion and the hypolimnion), and the surface mixed sediment layer, while atmospheric deposition is the primary external pathway of PCB inputs to the lake. The model was applied for different PCB congeners having a range of hydrophobicity and volatility. Using this model, we compare the long-term trends in predicted PCB concentrations in different environmental media with relevant available measurements for Lake Superior. We examine the seasonal depositional and exchange patterns, the relative importance of different process terms, and provide the most probable source of the current observed PCB levels in Lake Superior fish. In addition, we evaluate the role of current atmospheric PCB levels in sustaining the observed fish concentrations and appraise the need

  3. Recovery of acidified mountain lakes in Norway as predicted by the MAGIC model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bernard J. COSBY

    2004-02-01

    Full Text Available As part of the EU project EMERGE the biogeochemical model MAGIC was used to reconstruct acidification history and predict future recovery for mountain lakes in two regions of Norway. Central Norway (19 lakes receives low levels of acid deposition, most of the lakes have undergone only minor amounts of acidification, and all are predicted to recover in the future. Central Norway thus represents a reference area for more polluted regions in southern Norway and elsewhere in Europe. Southern Norway (23 lakes, on the other hand, receives higher levels of acid deposition, nearly all the studied lakes were acidified and had lost fish populations, and although some recovery has occurred during the period 1980-2000 and additional recovery is predicted for the next decades, the model simulations indicated that the majority of the lakes will not achieve water quality sufficient to support trout populations. Uncertainties in these predictions include possible future N saturation and the exacerbating effects of climate change. The mountain lakes of southern Norway are among the most sensitive in Europe. For southern Norway additional measures such as stricter controls of emissions of air pollutants will be required to obtain satisfactory water quality in the future.

  4. Stochastic modelling of basal temperatures in divide regions of the Antarctic ice sheet over the last 1.5 million years

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Liefferinge, Brice; Pattyn, Frank; Cavitte, Marie G. P.; Young, Duncan A.; Roberts, Jason L.

    2017-04-01

    The quest for oldest ice in Antarctica has recently been launched through an EU H2020 project (Beyond EPICA - Oldest Ice) and aims at identifying suitable areas for a potential future drilling. Retrieving an ice core of such age is essential to understand the relation between orbital changes and atmospheric composition during the mid-Pliocene transition. However, sites for a potential undisturbed record of 1.5 million-year old ice in Antarctica are difficult to find and require slow-moving ice (preferably an ice divide) and basal conditions that are not disturbed by large topographic variations. Furthermore, ice should be sufficiently thick but cold basal conditions should still prevail, since basal melting would destroy the bottom layers. Therefore, ice-flow conditions and thermodynamic characteristics are crucial for identifying potential locations of undisturbed ice. Van Liefferinge and Pattyn (2013) identified suitable areas based on a pan-Antarctic simplified thermodynamic ice sheet model and demonstrated that uncertainty in geothermal conditions remain a major unknown. In order to refine these estimates, and provide uncertainties, we employ a full thermo-mechanically coupled higher-order ice sheet model (Pattyn, 2003; Pattyn et al., 2004). Initial conditions for the calculations are based on an inversion of basal slipperiness, based on observed surface topography (Pollard and DeConto, 2012; Pattyn, in prep.). Uncertainties in geothermal conditions are introduced using the convolution of two Gaussian probability density functions: (a) the reconstruction of the Antarctic ice sheet geometry and testing ice thickness variability over the last 2 million years (Pollard and DeConto, 2009) and (b) the surface temperature reconstruction over the same period (Snyder et al., 2016). The standard deviation, the skewness and the kurtosis of the whole Antarctic ice sheet are analyzed to observe likely probable melt conditions. Finally, we focus on model results in the

  5. Modelling land cover change effects on catchment-to-lake sediment transfer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Hugh; Peñuela Fernández, Andres; Sellami, Haykel; Sangster, Heather; Boyle, John; Chiverrell, Richard; Riley, Mark

    2017-04-01

    Measurements of catchment soil erosion and sediment transfer to streams and lakes are limited and typically short duration (physical and social records coupled with high-resolution, sub-annual simulations of catchment-to-lake soil erosion and sedimentation. This choice of modelling period represents a compromise between the length of record and data availability for model parameterisation. We combine historic datasets for climate and land cover from four lake catchments in Britain with a fully revised catchment-scale modelling approach based on the Morgan-Morgan-Finney model, called MMF-TWI, that incorporates new elements representing plant growth, soil water balance and variable runoff and sediment contributing areas. The catchments comprise an intensively-farmed lowland agricultural catchment and three upland catchments. Historic change simulations were compared with sedimentation rates determined from multiple dated cores taken from each lake. Our revised modelling approach produced generally comparable rates of lake sediment flux to those based on sediment archives. Moreover, these centennial scale records form the basis for examining hypothetical scenarios linked to changes in crop rotation (lowland) and riparian re-afforestation (uplands), as well as providing an extended historic baseline against which to compare future climate effects on runoff, erosion and lake sediment delivery.

  6. Lessons Learned from Stakeholder-Driven Modeling in the Western Lake Erie Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muenich, R. L.; Read, J.; Vaccaro, L.; Kalcic, M. M.; Scavia, D.

    2017-12-01

    Lake Erie's history includes a great environmental success story. Recognizing the impact of high phosphorus loads from point sources, the United States and Canada 1972 Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement set load reduction targets to reduce algae blooms and hypoxia. The Lake responded quickly to those reductions and it was declared a success. However, since the mid-1990s, Lake Erie's algal blooms and hypoxia have returned, and this time with a dominant algae species that produces toxins. Return of the algal blooms and hypoxia is again driven by phosphorus loads, but this time a major source is the agriculturally-dominated Maumee River watershed that covers NW Ohio, NE Indiana, and SE Michigan, and the hypoxic extent has been shown to be driven by Maumee River loads plus those from the bi-national and multiple land-use St. Clair - Detroit River system. Stakeholders in the Lake Erie watershed have a long history of engagement with environmental policy, including modeling and monitoring efforts. This talk will focus on the application of interdisciplinary, stakeholder-driven modeling efforts aimed at understanding the primary phosphorus sources and potential pathways to reduce these sources and the resulting algal blooms and hypoxia in Lake Erie. We will discuss the challenges, such as engaging users with different goals, benefits to modeling, such as improvements in modeling data, and new research questions emerging from these modeling efforts that are driven by end-user needs.

  7. 3D modelling of interaction of strongly nonlinear internal seiches with a concave lake topography and a phenomenon of the "lake monsters".

    Science.gov (United States)

    Terletska, Kateryna; Maderich, Vladimir; Brovchenko, Igor; Jung, Kyung Tae

    2013-04-01

    In the freshwater lakes in moderate latitudes stratification occurs as a result of the seasonal warming of the surface water layer. Than the intense wind surges (usually in autumn) tilt the surface and generate long basin-scale low-frequency standing internal waves (seiches). Depending on the initial interface tilt and stratification wide spectra of possible flow regimes can be observed [1]-[2].They varied from small amplitude symmetric seiches to large amplitude nonlinear waves.Nonlinearity leads to an asymmetry of internal waves and appearance of the surge or bore and further disintegration of it on a sequence of solitary waves. In present study degeneration of the strongly nonlinear internal seiches in elongated lakes with a concave "spoon-like" topography is investigated.Two different three-dimensional non-hydrostatic free-surface numerical models are used to investigate degeneration of large internal waves and its subsequent interaction with the concave lake slope. One of this model is non-hydrostatic model [3] and the other is a well-known MIT model. At first we consider idealized elongated elliptic-shape lake with the dimension of 5 km X 1 km with the maximal depth 30 m. The stratification in lake is assumed to be given in a form of the tangent function with a density difference between upper and lower layers 2 kgm-3 . It is assumed that motion in such lake is initiated by inclination of thermocline on a certain angle. Than lake adjusts to return to its original state producing internal seiches which begin interacting with a bottom topography. The process of degeneration of internal seiches in the lake with concave ends consist of chain of elementary processes: 1) steeping of long basin scale large amplitude wave, that evolve into internal surge, 2) surge interact with concave lake ends that leads the concentration of the flow and formation of down slope bottom jet along the lake axis, 3) due to cumulative effect local velocity in the jet accelerates up to

  8. Environmental constraints on West Antarctic ice-sheet formation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lindstrom, D R; MacAyeal, D R

    1987-01-01

    Small perturbations in Antarctic environmental conditions can culminate in the demise of the Antarctic ice sheet's western sector. This may have happened during the last interglacial period, and could recur within the next millennium due to atmospheric warming from trace gas and CO/sub 2/ increases. In this study, we investigate the importance of sea-level, accumulation rate, and ice influx from the East Antarctic ice sheet in the re-establishment of the West Antarctic ice sheet from a thin cover using a time-dependent numerical ice-shelf model. Our results show that a precursor to the West Antarctic ice sheet can form within 3000 years. Sea-level lowering caused by ice-sheet development in the Northern Hemisphere has the greatest environmental influence. Under favorable conditions, ice grounding occurs over all parts of the West Antarctic ice sheet except up-stream of Thwaites Glacier and in the Ross Sea region.

  9. Satellite remote sensing for modeling and monitoring of water quality in the Great Lakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coffield, S. R.; Crosson, W. L.; Al-Hamdan, M. Z.; Barik, M. G.

    2017-12-01

    Consistent and accurate monitoring of the Great Lakes is critical for protecting the freshwater ecosystems, quantifying the impacts of climate change, understanding harmful algal blooms, and safeguarding public health for the millions who rely on the Lakes for drinking water. While ground-based monitoring is often hampered by limited sampling resolution, satellite data provide surface reflectance measurements at much more complete spatial and temporal scales. In this study, we implemented NASA data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) onboard the Aqua satellite to build robust water quality models. We developed and validated models for chlorophyll-a, nitrogen, phosphorus, and turbidity based on combinations of the six MODIS Ocean Color bands (412, 443, 488, 531, 547, and 667nm) for 2003-2016. Second, we applied these models to quantify trends in water quality through time and in relation to changing land cover, runoff, and climate for six selected coastal areas in Lakes Michigan and Erie. We found strongest models for chlorophyll-a in Lake Huron (R2 = 0.75), nitrogen in Lake Ontario (R2=0.66), phosphorus in Lake Erie (R2=0.60), and turbidity in Lake Erie (R2=0.86). These offer improvements over previous efforts to model chlorophyll-a while adding nitrogen, phosphorus, and turbidity. Mapped water quality parameters showed high spatial variability, with nitrogen concentrated largely in Superior and coastal Michigan and high turbidity, phosphorus, and chlorophyll near urban and agricultural areas of Erie. Temporal analysis also showed concurrence of high runoff or precipitation and nitrogen in Lake Michigan offshore of wetlands, suggesting that water quality in these areas is sensitive to changes in climate.

  10. Multi-year analysis of distributed glacier mass balance modelling and equilibrium line altitude on King George Island, Antarctic Peninsula

    Science.gov (United States)

    Falk, Ulrike; López, Damián A.; Silva-Busso, Adrián

    2018-04-01

    The South Shetland Islands are located at the northern tip of the Antarctic Peninsula (AP). This region was subject to strong warming trends in the atmospheric surface layer. Surface air temperature increased about 3 K in 50 years, concurrent with retreating glacier fronts, an increase in melt areas, ice surface lowering and rapid break-up and disintegration of ice shelves. The positive trend in surface air temperature has currently come to a halt. Observed surface air temperature lapse rates show a high variability during winter months (standard deviations up to ±1.0 K (100 m)-1) and a distinct spatial heterogeneity reflecting the impact of synoptic weather patterns. The increased mesocyclonic activity during the wintertime over the past decades in the study area results in intensified advection of warm, moist air with high temperatures and rain and leads to melt conditions on the ice cap, fixating surface air temperatures to the melting point. Its impact on winter accumulation results in the observed negative mass balance estimates. Six years of continuous glaciological measurements on mass balance stake transects as well as 5 years of climatological data time series are presented and a spatially distributed glacier energy balance melt model adapted and run based on these multi-year data sets. The glaciological surface mass balance model is generally in good agreement with observations, except for atmospheric conditions promoting snow drift by high wind speeds, turbulence-driven snow deposition and snow layer erosion by rain. No drift in the difference between simulated mass balance and mass balance measurements can be seen over the course of the 5-year model run period. The winter accumulation does not suffice to compensate for the high variability in summer ablation. The results are analysed to assess changes in meltwater input to the coastal waters, specific glacier mass balance and the equilibrium line altitude (ELA). The Fourcade Glacier catchment drains

  11. On the influence of model physics on simulations of Arctic and Antarctic sea ice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Massonnet

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available Two hindcast (1983–2007 simulations are performed with the global, ocean-sea ice models NEMO-LIM2 and NEMO-LIM3 driven by atmospheric reanalyses and climatologies. The two simulations differ only in their sea ice component, while all other elements of experimental design (resolution, initial conditions, atmospheric forcing are kept identical. The main differences in the sea ice models lie in the formulation of the subgrid-scale ice thickness distribution, of the thermodynamic processes, of the sea ice salinity and of the sea ice rheology. To assess the differences in model skill over the period of investigation, we develop a set of metrics for both hemispheres, comparing the main sea ice variables (concentration, thickness and drift to available observations and focusing on both mean state and seasonal to interannual variability. Based upon these metrics, we discuss the physical processes potentially responsible for the differences in model skill. In particular, we suggest that (i a detailed representation of the ice thickness distribution increases the seasonal to interannual variability of ice extent, with spectacular improvement for the simulation of the recent observed summer Arctic sea ice retreats, (ii the elastic-viscous-plastic rheology enhances the response of ice to wind stress, compared to the classical viscous-plastic approach, (iii the grid formulation and the air-sea ice drag coefficient affect the simulated ice export through Fram Strait and the ice accumulation along the Canadian Archipelago, and (iv both models show less skill in the Southern Ocean, probably due to the low quality of the reanalyses in this region and to the absence of important small-scale oceanic processes at the models' resolution (~1°.

  12. Cluster regression model and level fluctuation features of Van Lake, Turkey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Z. Şen

    1999-02-01

    Full Text Available Lake water levels change under the influences of natural and/or anthropogenic environmental conditions. Among these influences are the climate change, greenhouse effects and ozone layer depletions which are reflected in the hydrological cycle features over the lake drainage basins. Lake levels are among the most significant hydrological variables that are influenced by different atmospheric and environmental conditions. Consequently, lake level time series in many parts of the world include nonstationarity components such as shifts in the mean value, apparent or hidden periodicities. On the other hand, many lake level modeling techniques have a stationarity assumption. The main purpose of this work is to develop a cluster regression model for dealing with nonstationarity especially in the form of shifting means. The basis of this model is the combination of transition probability and classical regression technique. Both parts of the model are applied to monthly level fluctuations of Lake Van in eastern Turkey. It is observed that the cluster regression procedure does preserve the statistical properties and the transitional probabilities that are indistinguishable from the original data.Key words. Hydrology (hydrologic budget; stochastic processes · Meteorology and atmospheric dynamics (ocean-atmosphere interactions

  13. Cluster regression model and level fluctuation features of Van Lake, Turkey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Z. Şen

    Full Text Available Lake water levels change under the influences of natural and/or anthropogenic environmental conditions. Among these influences are the climate change, greenhouse effects and ozone layer depletions which are reflected in the hydrological cycle features over the lake drainage basins. Lake levels are among the most significant hydrological variables that are influenced by different atmospheric and environmental conditions. Consequently, lake level time series in many parts of the world include nonstationarity components such as shifts in the mean value, apparent or hidden periodicities. On the other hand, many lake level modeling techniques have a stationarity assumption. The main purpose of this work is to develop a cluster regression model for dealing with nonstationarity especially in the form of shifting means. The basis of this model is the combination of transition probability and classical regression technique. Both parts of the model are applied to monthly level fluctuations of Lake Van in eastern Turkey. It is observed that the cluster regression procedure does preserve the statistical properties and the transitional probabilities that are indistinguishable from the original data.

    Key words. Hydrology (hydrologic budget; stochastic processes · Meteorology and atmospheric dynamics (ocean-atmosphere interactions

  14. Hydrodynamic and Inundation Modeling of China’s Largest Freshwater Lake Aided by Remote Sensing Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peng Zhang

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available China’s largest freshwater lake, Poyang Lake, is characterized by rapid changes in its inundation area and hydrodynamics, so in this study, a hydrodynamic model of Poyang Lake was established to simulate these long-term changes. Inundation information was extracted from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS remote sensing data and used to calibrate the wetting and drying parameter by assessing the accuracy of the simulated inundation area and its boundary. The bottom friction parameter was calibrated using current velocity measurements from Acoustic Doppler Current Profilers (ADCP. The results show the model is capable of predicting the inundation area dynamic through cross-validation with remotely sensed inundation data, and can reproduce the seasonal dynamics of the water level, and water discharge through a comparison with hydrological data. Based on the model results, the characteristics of the current velocities of the lake in the wet season and the dry season of the lake were explored, and the potential effect of the current dynamic on water quality patterns was discussed. The model is a promising basic tool for prediction and management of the water resource and water quality of Poyang Lake.

  15. CE–QUAL–W2 water-quality model and supporting LOADEST models for Lake St. Croix, Wisconsin and Minnesota, 2013

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of the Interior — A mechanistic, biophysical water-quality model (CE–QUAL–W2) was developed and calibrated for Lake St. Croix, Wisconsin and Minnesota. The Lake St. Croix CE–QUAL–W2...

  16. Extraction and representation of nested catchment areas from digital elevation models in lake-dominated topography

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mackay, D. Scott; Band, Lawrence E.

    1998-04-01

    This paper presents a new method for extracting flow directions, contributing (upslope) areas, and nested catchments from digital elevation models in lake-dominated areas. Existing tools for acquiring descriptive variables of the topography, such as surface flow directions and contributing areas, were developed for moderate to steep topography. These tools are typically difficult to apply in gentle topography owing to limitations in explicitly handling lakes and other flat areas. This paper addresses the problem of accurately representing general topographic features by first identifying distinguishing features, such as lakes, in gentle topography areas and then using these features to guide the search for topographic flow directions and catchment marking. Lakes are explicitly represented in the topology of a watershed for use in water routing. Nonlake flat features help guide the search for topographic flow directions in areas of low signal to noise. This combined feature-based and grid-based search for topographic features yields improved contributing areas and watershed boundaries where there are lakes and other flat areas. Lakes are easily classified from remotely sensed imagery, which makes automated representation of lakes as subsystems within a watershed system tractable with widely available data sets.

  17. Distribution and Modeled Transport of Plastic Pollution in the Great Lakes, the World's Largest Freshwater Resource

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rachel N. Cable

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Most plastic pollution originates on land. As such, freshwater bodies serve as conduits for the transport of plastic litter to the ocean. Understanding the concentrations and fluxes of plastic litter in freshwater ecosystems is critical to our understanding of the global plastic litter budget and underpins the success of future management strategies. We conducted a replicated field survey of surface plastic concentrations in four lakes in the North American Great Lakes system, the largest contiguous freshwater system on the planet. We then modeled plastic transport to resolve spatial and temporal variability of plastic distribution in one of the Great Lakes, Lake Erie. Triplicate surface samples were collected at 38 stations in mid-summer of 2014. Plastic particles >106 μm in size were quantified. Concentrations were highest near populated urban areas and their water infrastructure. In the highest concentration trawl, nearly 2 million fragments km−2 were found in the Detroit River—dwarfing previous reports of Great Lakes plastic abundances by over 4-fold. Yet, the accuracy of single trawl counts was challenged: within-station plastic abundances varied 0- to 3-fold between replicate trawls. In the smallest size class (106–1,000 μm, false positive rates of 12–24% were determined analytically for plastic vs. non-plastic, while false negative rates averaged ~18%. Though predicted to form in summer by the existing Lake Erie circulation model, our transport model did not predict a permanent surface “Lake Erie Garbage Patch” in its central basin—a trend supported by field survey data. Rather, general eastward transport with recirculation in the major basins was predicted. Further, modeled plastic residence times were drastically influenced by plastic buoyancy. Neutrally buoyant plastics—those with the same density as the ambient water—were flushed several times slower than plastics floating at the water's surface and exceeded the

  18. Measurement of Hydrologic Streamflow Metrics and Estimation of Streamflow with Lumped Parameter Models in a Managed Lake System, Sebago Lake, Maine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reeve, A. S.; Martin, D.; Smith, S. M.

    2013-12-01

    Surface waters within the Sebago Lake watershed (southern Maine, USA) provide a variety of economically and intrinsically valuable recreational, commercial and environmental services. Different stakeholder groups for the 118 km2 Sebago Lake and surrounding watershed advocate for different lake and watershed management strategies, focusing on the operation of a dam at the outflow from Sebago Lake. While lake level in Sebago Lake has been monitored for over a century, limited data is available on the hydrologic processes that drive lake level and therefore impact how dam operation (and other changes to the region) will influence the hydroperiod of the lake. To fill this information gap several tasks were undertaken including: 1) deploying data logging pressure transducers to continuously monitor stream stage in nine tributaries, 2) measuring stream discharge at these sites to create rating curves for the nine tributaries, and using the resulting continuous discharge records to 3) calibrate lumped parameter computer models based on the GR4J model, modified to include a degree-day snowmelt routine. These lumped parameter models have been integrated with a simple lake water-balance model to estimate lake level and its response to different scenarios including dam management strategies. To date, about three years of stream stage data have been used to estimate stream discharge in all monitored tributaries (data collection is ongoing). Baseflow separation indices (BFI) for 2010 and 2011 using the USGS software PART and the Eckhart digital filter in WHAT range from 0.80-0.86 in the Crooked River and Richmill Outlet,followed by Northwest (0.75) and Muddy (0.53-0.56) Rivers, with the lowest BFI measured in Sticky River (0.41-0.56). The BFI values indicate most streams have significant groundwater (or other storage) inputs. The lumped parameter watershed model has been calibrated for four streams (Nash-Sutcliffe = 0.4 to 0.9), with the other major tributaries containing

  19. A heuristic simulation model of Lake Ontario circulation and mass balance transport

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKenna, J.E.; Chalupnicki, M.A.

    2011-01-01

    The redistribution of suspended organisms and materials by large-scale currents is part of natural ecological processes in large aquatic systems but can contribute to ecosystem disruption when exotic elements are introduced into the system. Toxic compounds and planktonic organisms spend various lengths of time in suspension before settling to the bottom or otherwise being removed. We constructed a simple physical simulation model, including the influence of major tributaries, to qualitatively examine circulation patterns in Lake Ontario. We used a simple mass balance approach to estimate the relative water input to and export from each of 10 depth regime-specific compartments (nearshore vs. offshore) comprising Lake Ontario. Despite its simplicity, our model produced circulation patterns similar to those reported by more complex studies in the literature. A three-gyre pattern, with the classic large counterclockwise central lake circulation, and a simpler two-gyre system were both observed. These qualitative simulations indicate little offshore transport along the south shore, except near the mouths of the Niagara River and Oswego River. Complex flow structure was evident, particularly near the Niagara River mouth and in offshore waters of the eastern basin. Average Lake Ontario residence time is 8 years, but the fastest model pathway indicated potential transport of plankton through the lake in as little as 60 days. This simulation illustrates potential invasion pathways and provides rough estimates of planktonic larval dispersal or chemical transport among nearshore and offshore areas of Lake Ontario. ?? 2011 Taylor & Francis.

  20. Modeling Lake Turkana Hydrology: Evaluating the potential hydrological impact of Gibe III reservoir on the Lake Turkana water levels using multi-source satellite data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Velpuri, N.; Senay, G. B.

    2012-12-01

    Ethiopia is currently building the Gibe III hydroelectric dam on the Omo River, which supplies >80% of the inflows to Lake Turkana, Kenya. On completion, the Gibe III dam will be the tallest dam in Africa (height of 241 m) with a storage capacity of 14.5 billion m3. Arguably, this is one of the most controversial hydro-power projects in the region because the nature of interactions and potential impacts of the dam regulated flows on Lake Turkana are not well understood due to its remote location and unavailability of reliable in situ hydrological datasets. In this research, we used a calibrated multi-source satellite data-driven water balance model for Lake Turkana that takes into account 12 years (1998-2009) of satellite rainfall, model routed runoff, lake/reservoir evapotranspiration, direct rain on lakes/reservoirs and releases from the dam to compute lake water levels. The model was used to evaluate the impact of the Gibe III dam using three different simple but robust approaches - a historical approach; a rainfall based sampling approach; and a non-parametric bootstrap resampling approach to generate rainfall-runoff scenarios. Modelling results indicate that, on average, the reservoir would take up to 8-10 months to reach minimum operation level of 201 m (initial impoundment period). During this period, the dam would regulate the lake inflows up to 50% and as a result the lake level would drop up to 2 m. However, after the initial impoundment period, due to releases from the dam, the rate of lake inflows would be around 10 m3/s less when compared to the rate without Gibe III (650 m3/s). Due to this, the lake levels will decline on average 1.5 m (3 m). Over the entire modeling period including the initial period of impoundment, the average rate of lake inflows due to Gibe III dam was estimated to be 500 m3/s. Results indicated that dam would also moderate the seasonal fluctuations in the lake. Areas along the Lake Turkana shoreline that are vulnerable to

  1. Precipitation Modeling over the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets and the Relationship to the Surface Mass Balance and Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bromwich, David H.; Chen, Qui-Shi

    2005-01-01

    Atmospheric numerical simulation and dynamic retrieval method with atmospheric numerical analyses are used to assess the spatial and temporal variability of Antarctic precipitation for the last two decades. First, the Polar MM5 has been run over Antarctica to study the Antarctic precipitation. With a horizontal resolution of 60km, the Polar MM5 has been run for the period of July 1996 through June 1999 in a series of short-term forecasts from initial and boundary conditions provided by the ECMWF operational analyses. In comparison with climatological maps, the major features of the spatial distribution of Antarctic precipitation are well captured by the Polar MM5. Drift snow effects on redistribution of surface accumulation over Antarctica are also assessed with surface wind fields from Polar MM5 in this study. There are complex divergence and convergence patterns of drift snow transport over Antarctica, especially along the coast. It is found that areas with large drift snow transport convergence and divergence are located around escarpment areas where there is large katabatic wind acceleration. In addition, areas with large snow transport divergence are generally accompanied by areas with large snow transport convergence nearby, indicating that drift snow transport is of local importance for the redistribution of the snowfall

  2. Large-Ensemble modeling of past and future variations of the Antarctic Ice Sheet with a coupled ice-Earth-sea level model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pollard, David; DeConto, Robert; Gomez, Natalya

    2016-04-01

    To date, most modeling of the Antarctic Ice Sheet's response to future warming has been calibrated using recent and modern observations. As an alternate approach, we apply a hybrid 3-D ice sheet-shelf model to the last deglacial retreat of Antarctica, making use of geologic data of the last ~20,000 years to test the model against the large-scale variations during this period. The ice model is coupled to a global Earth-sea level model to improve modeling of the bedrock response and to capture ocean-ice gravitational interactions. Following several recent ice-sheet studies, we use Large Ensemble (LE) statistical methods, performing sets of 625 runs from 30,000 years to present with systematically varying model parameters. Objective scores for each run are calculated using modern data and past reconstructed grounding lines, relative sea level records, cosmogenic elevation-age data and uplift rates. The LE results are analyzed to calibrate 4 particularly uncertain model parameters that concern marginal ice processes and interaction with the ocean. LE's are extended into the future with climates following RCP scenarios. An additional scoring criterion tests the model's ability to reproduce estimated sea-level high stands in the warm mid-Pliocene, for which drastic retreat mechanisms of hydrofracturing and ice-cliff failure are needed in the model. The LE analysis provides future sea-level-rise envelopes with well-defined parametric uncertainty bounds. Sensitivities of future LE results to Pliocene sea-level estimates, coupling to the Earth-sea level model, and vertical profiles of Earth properties, will be presented.

  3. Bifurcations of optimal vector fields in the shallow lake model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kiseleva, T.; Wagener, F.O.O.

    2010-01-01

    The solution structure of the set of optimal solutions of the shallow lake problem, a problem of optimal pollution management, is studied as we vary the values of the system parameters: the natural resilience, the relative importance of the resource for social welfare and the future discount rate.

  4. Assessing Lake Trophic Status: A Proportional Odds Logistic Regression Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lake trophic state classifications are good predictors of ecosystem condition and are indicative of both ecosystem services (e.g., recreation and aesthetics), and disservices (e.g., harmful algal blooms). Methods for classifying trophic state are based off the foundational work o...

  5. Bifurcations of optimal vector fields in the shallow lake model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kiseleva, T.; Wagener, F.

    2009-01-01

    The solution structure of the set of optimal solutions of the shallow lake problem, a problem of optimal pollution management, is studied as we vary the values of the system parameters: the natural resilience, the relative importance of the resource for social welfare and the future discount rate.

  6. Modeling lake trophic state: a random forest approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Productivity of lentic ecosystems has been well studied and it is widely accepted that as nutrient inputs increase, productivity increases and lakes transition from low trophic state (e.g. oligotrophic) to higher trophic states (e.g. eutrophic). These broad trophic state classi...

  7. Wellness Circles: The Alkali Lake Model in Community Recovery Processes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ben, Leon W.; And Others

    The case study described here was conducted as a doctoral research project at Northern Arizona University. The study documents the success of the Shuswop Indian Band of Alkali Lake, British Columbia (Canada), in their 15-year battle with alcoholism, once the people themselves decided on recovery. The study looks back at the 95 percent recovery…

  8. Stable isotope and hydrogeochemical studies of Beaver Lake and Lake Radok, MacRobertson Land, East Antarctica

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wand, U.; Hermichen, W.D.; Hoefling, R.; Muehle, K.

    1987-01-01

    Beaver Lake and Lake Radok, the largest known epishelf and the deepest freshwater lake on the Antarctic continent, respectively, were isotopically (δ 2 H, δ 18 O) and hydrogeochemically studied. Lake Radok is an isothermal and non-stratified, i.e. homogeneous water body, while Beaver Lake is stratified with respect to temperature, salinity and isotopic composition. The results for the latter attest to freshwater (derived from snow and glacier melt) overlying seawater. (author)

  9. Incorporation of Fine-Grained Sediment Erodibility Measurements into Sediment Transport Modeling, Capitol Lake, Washington

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stevens, Andrew W.; Gelfenbaum, Guy; Elias, Edwin; Jones, Craig

    2008-01-01

    Capitol Lake was created in 1951 with the construction of a concrete dam and control gate that prevented salt-water intrusion into the newly formed lake and regulated flow of the Deschutes River into southern Puget Sound. Physical processes associated with the former tidally dominated estuary were altered, and the dam structure itself likely caused an increase in retention of sediment flowing into the lake from the Deschutes River. Several efforts to manage sediment accumulation in the lake, including dredging and the construction of sediment traps upriver, failed to stop the lake from filling with sediment. The Deschutes Estuary Feasibility Study (DEFS) was carried out to evaluate the possibility of removing the dam and restoring estuarine processes as an alternative ongoing lake management. An important component of DEFS was the creation of a hydrodynamic and sediment transport model of the restored Deschutes Estuary. Results from model simulations indicated that estuarine processes would be restored under each of four restoration alternatives, and that over time, the restored estuary would have morphological features similar to the predam estuary. The model also predicted that after dam-removal, a large portion of the sediment eroded from the lake bottom would be deposited near the Port of Olympia and a marina located in lower Budd Inlet seaward of the present dam. The volume of sediment transported downstream was a critical piece of information that managers needed to estimate the total cost of the proposed restoration project. However, the ability of the model to predict the magnitude of sediment transport in general and, in particular, the volume of sediment deposition in the port and marina was limited by a lack of information on the erodibility of fine-grained sediments in Capitol Lake. Cores at several sites throughout Capitol Lake were collected between October 31 and November 1, 2007. The erodibility of sediments in the cores was later determined in the

  10. Specific-activity and concentration model applied to cesium movement in an oligotrophic lake

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vanderploeg, H.A.; Booth, R.S.; Clark, F.H.

    1975-01-01

    A linear systems-analysis model was derived to simulate the time-dependent dynamics of specific activity and concentration of radionuclides in aquatic systems. Transfer coefficients were determined for movement of 137 Cs in the components of an oligotrophic lake. These coefficients were defined in terms of basic environmental and ecological data so that the model can be applied to a wide variety of sites. Simulations with a model that ignored sediment--water interactions predicted much higher 137 Cs specific activities in the lake water and biota than did those with the complete model. Comparing 137 Cs concentrations predicted by the model with concentrations reported for the biota of an experimentally contaminated oligotrophic lake indicated that the transfer coefficients derived for the biota are adequate

  11. Utilization of GIS modeling in geoenvironmental studies of Qaroun Lake, El Fayoum Depression, Egypt

    Science.gov (United States)

    Attia, Abdelaal H.; El-Sayed, Salah Abdelwahab; El-Sabagh, Moustafa E.

    2018-02-01

    Qaroun Lake, the study area, is a natural protectorate located at the northern part of El Fayoum Depression, Egypt. An integrated approach including hydrochemistry, mineralogy of sediments and GIS analysis and modeling was conducted in order to determine the different geoenvironmental parameters affecting the lake environmental system. Forty two environmental water and sediment samples were collected from the lake and relevant drains in 2013. The water samples were analyzed for major ions and trace elements and the sediment ones were analyzed for clay and non-clay minerals. This study showed that the saline water of the lake (31490 Mg2+ > Ca2+ > K+ - Cl- > SO42- > HCO3- > CO32-. The water salt assemblages were KCl - NaCl - Na2SO4 - MgSO4 - CaSO4 - Ca(HCO3)2 reflecting a mixed water type. The contents of NaCl, Na2SO4 and MgSO4 salts were found to be fully controlled with the lake depths. The hydrogeochemical investigations revealed that the evaporation concentration is the primary process of the lake water evolution. The presence of trace elements in the lake water is essentially of allochtonous origin. The GIS-based maps indicated that the concentrations of Zn, Co, Mo, Pb, F and Cd elements in water had increased in the eastern part of the lake; meanwhile, the contents of NO3- ions had increased in the southwestern part indicating that these parts were the most vulnerable to the potential pollution with such elements. The XRD analysis revealed the existence of different mineral assemblages (quartz, kaolinite, goethite, calcite, halite, hematite, feldspar, gypsum, dolomite and saponite) in bottom sediments. The mineral concentrations varied greatly from place to another place along the lake and their distributions were asymmetric. The dominant minerals were the quartz and calcite. The mineralogical compositions of sediments were highly affected by the natural and man-mad activities. The most effective processes were the type of the water and solid materials coming

  12. Simulating Microwave Scattering for Wetland Vegetation in Poyang Lake, Southeast China, Using a Coherent Scattering Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jingjuan Liao

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available We developed a polarimetric coherent electromagnetic scattering model for Poyang Lake wetland vegetation. Realistic canopy structures including curved leaves and the lodging situation of the vegetation were taken into account, and the situation at the ground surface was established using an Advanced Integral Equation Model combined with Oh’s 2002 model. This new model can reasonably describe the coherence effect caused by the phase differences of the electromagnetic fields scattered from different particles by different scattering mechanisms. We obtained good agreement between the modeling results and C-band data from the Radarsat-2 satellite. A simulation of scattering from the vegetation in Poyang Lake showed that direct vegetation scattering and the single-ground-bounce mechanism are the dominant scattering mechanisms in the C-band and L-band, while the effects of the double-ground-bounce mechanism are very small. We note that the curvature of the leaves and the lodging characteristics of the vegetation cannot be ignored in the modeling process. Monitoring soil moisture in the Poyang Lake wetland with the C-band data was not feasible because of the density and depth of Poyang Lake vegetation. When the density of Poyang Lake Carex increases, the backscattering coefficient either decreases or remains stable.

  13. Seismometers on Europa: Insights from Modeling and Antarctic Ice Shelf Analogs (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmerr, N. C.; Brunt, K. M.; Cammarano, F.; Hurford, T. A.; Lekic, V.; Panning, M. P.; Rhoden, A.; Sauber, J. M.

    2013-12-01

    The outer satellites of the Solar System are a diverse suite of objects that span a large spectrum of sizes, compositions, and evolutionary histories; constraining their internal structures is key for understanding their formation, evolution, and dynamics. In particular, Jupiter's icy satellite Europa has compelling evidence for the existence of a global subsurface ocean beneath a surface layer of water ice. This ocean decouples the ice shell from the solid silicate mantle, and amplifies tidally driven large-scale surface deformation. The complex fissures and cracks seen by orbital flybys suggest brittle failure is an ongoing and active process in the ice crust, therefore indicating a high level of associated seismic activity. Seismic probing of the ice, oceanic, and rocky layers would provide altogether new information on the structure, evolution, and even habitability of Europa. Any future missions (penetrators, landers, and rovers) planning to take advantage of seismometers to image the Europan interior would need to be built around predictions for the expected background noise levels, seismicity, wavefields, and elastic properties of the interior. A preliminary suite of seismic velocity profiles for Europa has been calculated using moment of inertia constraints, planetary mass and density, estimates of moon composition, thermal structure, and experimentally determined relationships of elastic properties for relevant materials at pressure, temperature and depth. While the uncertainties in these models are high, they allow us to calculate a first-order seismic response using 1-D and 3-D high frequency wave propagation codes for global and regional scale structures. Here, we show how future seismic instruments could provide detailed elastic information and reduced uncertainties on the internal structure of Europa. For example, receiver functions and surface wave orbits calculated for a single seismic instrument would provide information on crustal thickness and

  14. Using visible reflectance spectroscopy to reconstruct historical changes in chlorophyll a concentration in East Antarctic ponds

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qianqian Chen

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The visible reflectance spectroscopy (VRS and chlorophyll a concentration were determined in three sediment profiles collected from East Antarctica to investigate the potential application of VRS in reconstructing historical changes in Antarctic lake primary productivity. The results showed that the appearance of a trough at 650–700 nm is an important marker for chlorophyll a concentration and can therefore be used to distinguish the sedimentary organic matter source from guano and algae. The measured chlorophyll a content had significant positive correlations with the trough area between 650 and 700 nm, and no distinct trough was found in the sediments with organic matter completely derived from guano. Modelling results showed that the spectra spectrally inferred chlorophyll a content, and the measured data exhibit consistent trends with depth, showing that the dimensionless trough area can serve as an independent proxy for reconstructing historical fluctuations in the primary production of Antarctic ponds. The correlation of phosphorus (P with measured and inferred chlorophyll a contents in ornithogenic sediments near penguin colonies indicates that the change in primary productivity in the Antarctic ponds investigated was closely related to the amount of guano input from these birds.

  15. Future recovery of acidified lakes in southern Norway predicted by the MAGIC model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. F. Wright

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available The acidification model MAGIC was used to predict recovery of small lakes in southernmost Norway to future reduction of acid deposition. A set of 60 small headwater lakes was sampled annually from either 1986 (35 lakes or 1995 (25 lakes. Future acid deposition was assumed to follow implementation of current agreed legislation, including the Gothenburg protocol. Three scenarios of future N retention were used. Calibration of the sites to the observed time trends (1990–1999 as well as to one point in time considerably increased the robustness of the predictions. The modelled decline in SO4* concentrations in the lakes over the period 1986–2001 matched the observed decline closely. This strongly suggests that soil processes such as SO4 adsorption/desorption and S reduction/oxidation do not delay the response of runoff by more than a few years. The slope of time trends in ANC over the period of observations was less steep than that observed, perhaps because the entire soil column does not interact actively with the soilwater that emerges as runoff. The lakes showed widely differing time trends in NO3 concentrations over the period 1986–2000. The observed trends were not simulated by any of the three N scenarios. A model based on the C/N ratio in soil was insufficient to account for N retention and leaching at these sites. The large differences in modelled NO3, however, produced only minor differences in ANC between the three scenarios. In the year 2050, the difference was only about 5 μeq l-1. Future climate change entailing warming and increased precipitation could also increase NO3 loss to surface waters. SO4* concentrations in the lakes were predicted to decrease in parallel with the future decreases in S deposition. Fully 80% of the expected decline to year 2025, however, had already occurred by the year 2000. Similarly, ANC concentrations were predicted to increase in the future, but again about 67% of the expected change has already

  16. Presentation of a model simulating the response of lakes to fertilizations to reduce radiocesium levels in fish

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hakanson, L.; Ottosson, F.; Abrahamsson, O.; Johansson, T.

    1998-01-01

    Lake fertilization is a potential remedy for toxic contamination in lakes with low productivity, which are known to be sensitive to, e.g. radionuclides, metals and organic toxins. This study presents a model to plan the duration and predict the outcome of fertilization in lakes. Several methods of lake fertilization have been used in field experiments: (1) Lake and wetland liming using 'mixed' lime with added phosphorus; (2) treatment with commercial fertilizers; and (3) using effluents (containing phosphorus) from fish farms. This model is basically a dynamic model using differential equations to handle fluxes, amounts and concentrations. It also includes several empirical relationships, because the model is meant to be used in practice and the driving variables should be few and readily available, like catchment and lake morphometric data. The model is primarily intended to be used as a sub-model predicting realistic changes in phosphorus and potassium concentrations and in lake pH caused by these remedial measures within the framework of a more extensive lake model for radiocesium. It is, however, meant to be based on the fundamental processes regulating phosphorus fluxes in lakes, and could be of interest also in contexts other than radioecology. It is driven by the amount of fertilizer added to the lake and the month of treatment. The consequences for the spread, biological uptake and concentrations of radiocesium are also discussed and simulated. The phosphorus model is, and must be, easy to handle since all the input data should be derived either from maps or from regular monitoring programs. In this paper, the model is presented and calibrations are examined. The results of the calibrations indicate that the model should be useful for managers to optimise lake fertilization, e.g. in contexts of lake radioecology where the benefits and drawbacks of different remedial strategies are evaluated (multi-attribute analysis). (Copyright (c) 1998 Elsevier Science B

  17. Airspace: Antarctic Sound Transmission

    OpenAIRE

    Polli, Andrea

    2009-01-01

    This paper investigates how sound transmission can contribute to the public understanding of climate change within the context of the Poles. How have such transmission-based projects developed specifically in the Arctic and Antarctic, and how do these works create alternative pathways in order to help audiences better understand climate change? The author has created the media project Sonic Antarctica from a personal experience of the Antarctic. The work combines soundscape recordings and son...

  18. Development and application of an eco-hydrodynamic model for radionuclides in a brackish lake

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ueda, Shinji; Kondo, Kunio; Inaba, Jiro; Hisamatsu, Shun'ichi

    2007-01-01

    This study was intended to develop a computer code of an eco-hydrodynamic model for radionuclides in Lake Obuchi, which is a brackish lake in Rokkasho, Aomori Prefecture and adjacent to nuclear fuel cycle facilities including the first commercial spent-nuclear-fuel reprocessing plant in Japan. Radionuclides introduced into the lake are transferred not only by physical advection an diffusion, but also by bio-chemical activities. The model was planned to include the effects of the low trophic level ecosystem on the transfer of radionuclides as well as the hydraulic movements in the lake. Various parameters necessary for the model description were collected from the lake during 2001 to 2005. Water flow in the lake, including input from the Futamata River and tidal flow from the Pacific Ocean, was simulated by a 3D-hydrodynamic model, and an ecosystem model including phytoplankton and zooplankton was incorporated into the water flow model. Calculations of water movement were carried out using climatic, physicochemical and ecological data collected during January 2001 to December 2002. The numerical simulation results of water current and salinity agreed well with field measurement data. The ecosystem model simulated well the mass fluxes of P, N and observed in the field. The estimated 3 He and 137 Cs concentrations in lake water were in good agreement with the measured data, because the concentrations of both radionuclides were controlled by the mixture of seawater as the higher side member and fresh water as the lower side member. Material balance calculations of both radionuclides in the lake ecosystem showed that they were mainly in the form of dissolved inorganic matter (DIM). However, the fallout 137 Cs deposition pattern in the lake sediment predicted by a long-term simulation did not agree with the measured one. Although input of 137 Cs from the watershed was included in the simulation, its residence time in the watershed was not considered. This meant that

  19. Challenges in understanding, modelling, and mitigating Lake Outburst Flood Hazard: experiences from Central Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mergili, Martin; Schneider, Demian; Andres, Norina; Worni, Raphael; Gruber, Fabian; Schneider, Jean F.

    2010-05-01

    Lake Outburst Floods can evolve from complex process chains like avalanches of rock or ice that produce flood waves in a lake which may overtop and eventually breach glacial, morainic, landslide, or artificial dams. Rising lake levels can lead to progressive incision and destabilization of a dam, to enhanced ground water flow (piping), or even to hydrostatic failure of ice dams which can cause sudden outflow of accumulated water. These events often have a highly destructive potential because a large amount of water is released in a short time, with a high capacity to erode loose debris, leading to a powerful debris flow with a long travel distance. The best-known example of a lake outburst flood is the Vajont event (Northern Italy, 1963), where a landslide rushed into an artificial lake which spilled over and caused a flood leading to almost 2000 fatalities. Hazards from the failure of landslide dams are often (not always) fairly manageable: most breaches occur in the first few days or weeks after the landslide event and the rapid construction of a spillway - though problematic - has solved some hazardous situations (e.g. in the case of Hattian landslide in 2005 in Pakistan). Older dams, like Usoi dam (Lake Sarez) in Tajikistan, are usually fairly stable, though landsildes into the lakes may create floodwaves overtopping and eventually weakening the dams. The analysis and the mitigation of glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) hazard remains a challenge. A number of GLOFs resulting in fatalities and severe damage have occurred during the previous decades, particularly in the Himalayas and in the mountains of Central Asia (Pamir, Tien Shan). The source area is usually far away from the area of impact and events occur at very long intervals or as singularities, so that the population at risk is usually not prepared. Even though potentially hazardous lakes can be identified relatively easily with remote sensing and field work, modeling and predicting of GLOFs (and also

  20. Measurements of evaporation from a mine void lake and testing of modelling approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    McJannet, David; Hawdon, Aaron; Van Niel, Tom; Boadle, Dave; Baker, Brett; Trefry, Mike; Rea, Iain

    2017-12-01

    Pit lakes often form in the void that remains after open cut mining operations cease. As pit lakes fill, hydrological and geochemical processes interact and these need to be understood for appropriate management actions to be implemented. Evaporation is important in the evolution of pit lakes as it acts to concentrate various constituents, controls water level and changes the thermal characteristics of the water body. Despite its importance, evaporation from pit lakes is poorly understood. To address this, we used an automated floating evaporation pan and undertook measurements at a pit lake over a 12 month period. We also developed a new procedure for correcting floating pan evaporation estimates to lake evaporation estimates based on surface temperature differences. Total annual evaporation was 2690 mm and reflected the strong radiation inputs, high temperatures and low humidity experienced in this region. Measurements were used to test the performance of evaporation estimates derived using both pan coefficient and aerodynamic modelling techniques. Daily and monthly evaporation estimates were poorly reproduced using pan coefficient techniques and their use is not recommended for such environments. Aerodynamic modelling was undertaken using a range of input datasets that may be available to those who manage pit lake systems. Excellent model performance was achieved using over-water or local over-land meteorological observations, particularly when the sheltering effects of the pit were considered. Model performance was reduced when off-site data were utilised and differences between local and off-site vapor pressure and wind speed were found to be the major cause.

  1. Glacial lake outburst flood risk assessment using combined approaches of remote sensing, GIS and dam break modelling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arpit Aggarwal

    2016-01-01

    and digital elevation model. The volume and depth have been computed using empirical formulae, and other parameters such as cross-sections from the lake to outlet etc. have been prepared in ArcGIS 9.3. The GLOF which can be triggered by Lake 140 was modelled and simulated using MIKE-11 software's hydrodynamic module. As a result, flood values and hydrograph have been obtained. The flood at lake site comes out to be 2611.136 cumec which get mitigated to 1417.844 cumec at the outlet.

  2. Measured and modelled trends in European mountain lakes: results of fifteen years of cooperative studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michela ROGORA

    2004-02-01

    Full Text Available Papers included in this Special Issue of the Journal of Limnology present results of long-term ecological research on mountain lakes throughout Europe. Most of these studies were performed over the last 15 years in the framework of some EU-funded projects, namely AL:PE 1 and 2, MOLAR and EMERGE. These projects together considered a high number of remote lakes in different areas or lake districts in Europe. Central to the projects was the idea that mountain lakes, while subject to the same chemical and biological processes controlling lowland lakes, are more sensitive to any input from their surroundings and can be used as earlywarning indicators of atmospheric pollution and climate change. A first section of this special issue deal with the results of long-term monitoring programmes at selected key-sites. A second section focuse on site-specific and regional applications of an acidification model designed to reconstruct and predict long-term changes in the chemistry of mountain lakes.

  3. Modeling potential scenarios of the Tangjiashan Lake outburst and risk assessment in the downstream valley

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kidyaeva, Vera; Chernomorets, Sergey; Krylenko, Inna; Wei, Fangqiang; Petrakov, Dmitry; Su, Pengcheng; Yang, Hongjuan; Xiong, Junnan

    2017-09-01

    This research is devoted to Tangjiashan Lake, a quake landslide-dammed lake, situated in Sichuan Province, China, which was formed by a landslide triggered by the Wenchuan Earthquake on 12 May 2008. A STREAM_2D two-dimensional hydrodynamic model of Russia was applied to simulate the process of two flood scenarios: 1, lake dam outbreak, and 2, dam overtopping. An artificial dam outbreak was made after the earthquake to lower the water level of the lake in 2008, which led to a great flood with a maximum water discharge of more than 6400 m3/s. The negative impact of the flood was reduced by a timely evacuation of the population. Flood hazards still remain in the event of new landslides into the lake and lake dam overtopping (Scenario 2), in which case a maximum water discharge at the dam crest would reach 5000 m3/s, placing the population of Shabacun and Shilingzi villages in the zone of flood impact.

  4. Prediction of Chl-a concentrations in an eutrophic lake using ANN models with hybrid inputs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aksoy, A.; Yuzugullu, O.

    2017-12-01

    Chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) concentrations in water bodies exhibit both spatial and temporal variations. As a result, frequent sampling is required with higher number of samples. This motivates the use of remote sensing as a monitoring tool. Yet, prediction performances of models that convert radiance values into Chl-a concentrations can be poor in shallow lakes. In this study, Chl-a concentrations in Lake Eymir, a shallow eutrophic lake in Ankara (Turkey), are determined using artificial neural network (ANN) models that use hybrid inputs composed of water quality and meteorological data as well as remotely sensed radiance values to improve prediction performance. Following a screening based on multi-collinearity and principal component analysis (PCA), dissolved-oxygen concentration (DO), pH, turbidity, and humidity were selected among several parameters as the constituents of the hybrid input dataset. Radiance values were obtained from QuickBird-2 satellite. Conversion of the hybrid input into Chl-a concentrations were studied for two different periods in the lake. ANN models were successful in predicting Chl-a concentrations. Yet, prediction performance declined for low Chl-a concentrations in the lake. In general, models with hybrid inputs were superior over the ones that solely used remotely sensed data.

  5. Multi-year analysis of distributed glacier mass balance modelling and equilibrium line altitude on King George Island, Antarctic Peninsula

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    U. Falk

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available The South Shetland Islands are located at the northern tip of the Antarctic Peninsula (AP. This region was subject to strong warming trends in the atmospheric surface layer. Surface air temperature increased about 3 K in 50 years, concurrent with retreating glacier fronts, an increase in melt areas, ice surface lowering and rapid break-up and disintegration of ice shelves. The positive trend in surface air temperature has currently come to a halt. Observed surface air temperature lapse rates show a high variability during winter months (standard deviations up to ±1.0 K (100 m−1 and a distinct spatial heterogeneity reflecting the impact of synoptic weather patterns. The increased mesocyclonic activity during the wintertime over the past decades in the study area results in intensified advection of warm, moist air with high temperatures and rain and leads to melt conditions on the ice cap, fixating surface air temperatures to the melting point. Its impact on winter accumulation results in the observed negative mass balance estimates. Six years of continuous glaciological measurements on mass balance stake transects as well as 5 years of climatological data time series are presented and a spatially distributed glacier energy balance melt model adapted and run based on these multi-year data sets. The glaciological surface mass balance model is generally in good agreement with observations, except for atmospheric conditions promoting snow drift by high wind speeds, turbulence-driven snow deposition and snow layer erosion by rain. No drift in the difference between simulated mass balance and mass balance measurements can be seen over the course of the 5-year model run period. The winter accumulation does not suffice to compensate for the high variability in summer ablation. The results are analysed to assess changes in meltwater input to the coastal waters, specific glacier mass balance and the equilibrium line altitude (ELA. The

  6. Parameter sensitivity analysis of a 1-D cold region lake model for land-surface schemes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guerrero, José-Luis; Pernica, Patricia; Wheater, Howard; Mackay, Murray; Spence, Chris

    2017-12-01

    Lakes might be sentinels of climate change, but the uncertainty in their main feedback to the atmosphere - heat-exchange fluxes - is often not considered within climate models. Additionally, these fluxes are seldom measured, hindering critical evaluation of model output. Analysis of the Canadian Small Lake Model (CSLM), a one-dimensional integral lake model, was performed to assess its ability to reproduce diurnal and seasonal variations in heat fluxes and the sensitivity of simulated fluxes to changes in model parameters, i.e., turbulent transport parameters and the light extinction coefficient (Kd). A C++ open-source software package, Problem Solving environment for Uncertainty Analysis and Design Exploration (PSUADE), was used to perform sensitivity analysis (SA) and identify the parameters that dominate model behavior. The generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) was applied to quantify the fluxes' uncertainty, comparing daily-averaged eddy-covariance observations to the output of CSLM. Seven qualitative and two quantitative SA methods were tested, and the posterior likelihoods of the modeled parameters, obtained from the GLUE analysis, were used to determine the dominant parameters and the uncertainty in the modeled fluxes. Despite the ubiquity of the equifinality issue - different parameter-value combinations yielding equivalent results - the answer to the question was unequivocal: Kd, a measure of how much light penetrates the lake, dominates sensible and latent heat fluxes, and the uncertainty in their estimates is strongly related to the accuracy with which Kd is determined. This is important since accurate and continuous measurements of Kd could reduce modeling uncertainty.

  7. Metal and proton toxicity to lake zooplankton: A chemical speciation based modelling approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stockdale, Anthony; Tipping, Edward; Lofts, Stephen; Fott, Jan; Garmo, Øyvind A.; Hruska, Jakub; Keller, Bill; Löfgren, Stefan; Maberly, Stephen C.; Majer, Vladimir; Nierzwicki-Bauer, Sandra A.; Persson, Gunnar; Schartau, Ann-Kristin; Thackeray, Stephen J.

    2014-01-01

    The WHAM-F TOX model quantifies the combined toxic effects of protons and metal cations towards aquatic organisms through the toxicity function (F TOX ), a linear combination of the products of organism-bound cation and a toxic potency coefficient for each cation. We describe the application of the model to predict an observable ecological field variable, species richness of pelagic lake crustacean zooplankton, studied with respect to either acidification or the impacts of metals from smelters. The fitted results give toxic potencies increasing in the order H + TOX to relate combined toxic effects of protons and metal cations towards lake crustacean zooplankton. • The fitted results give toxic potencies increasing in the order H + TOX model has been applied to field data for pelagic lake crustacean zooplankton. The fitted results give metal toxic potencies increasing in the order H + < Al < Cu < Zn < Ni

  8. Bioaccumulation of trace metals in the Antarctic amphipod Paramoera walkeri (Stebbing, 1906): comparison of two-compartment and hyperbolic toxicokinetic models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clason, B.; Duquesne, S.; Liess, M.; Schulz, R.; Zauke, G.-P.

    2003-01-01

    Bioaccumulation of Cd, Pb, Cu and Zn in the Antarctic gammaridean amphipod Paramoera walkeri (Stebbing, 1906) was investigated at Casey station (Australian Antarctic Territory). The main goals were to provide information on accumulation strategies of the organisms tested and to verify toxicokinetic models as a predictive tool. The organisms accumulated metals upon exposure and it was possible to estimate significant model parameters of two-compartment and hyperbolic models. These models were successfully verified in a second toxicokinetic study. However, the application of hyperbolic models appears to be more promising as a predictive tool for metals in amphipods compared to compartment models, which have failed to adequately predict metal accumulation in experiments with increasing external exposures in previous studies. The following kinetic bioconcentration factors (BCFs) for the theoretical equilibrium were determined: 150-630 (Cd), 1600-7000 (Pb), 1700-3800 (Cu) and 670-2400 (Zn). We find decreasing BCFs with increasing external metal dosing but similar results for treatments with and without natural UV radiation and for the combined effect of different exposure regimes (single versus multiple metal exposure) and/or the amphipod collective involved (Beall versus Denison Island). A tentative estimation showed the following sequence of sensitivity of P. walkeri to an increase of soluble metal exposure: 0.2-3.0 μg Cd l -1 , 0.12-0.25 μg Pb l -1 , 0.9-3.0 μg Cu l -1 and 9-26 μg Zn l -1 . Thus, the amphipod investigated proved to be more sensitive as biomonitor compared to gammarids from German coastal waters (with the exception of Cd) and to copepods from the Weddell Sea inferred from literature data

  9. Modeling the Thickness of Perennial Ice Covers on Stratified Lakes of the Taylor Valley, Antarctica

    Science.gov (United States)

    Obryk, M. K.; Doran, P. T.; Hicks, J. A.; McKay, C. P.; Priscu, J. C.

    2016-01-01

    A one-dimensional ice cover model was developed to predict and constrain drivers of long term ice thickness trends in chemically stratified lakes of Taylor Valley, Antarctica. The model is driven by surface radiative heat fluxes and heat fluxes from the underlying water column. The model successfully reproduced 16 years (between 1996 and 2012) of ice thickness changes for west lobe of Lake Bonney (average ice thickness = 3.53 m; RMSE = 0.09 m, n = 118) and Lake Fryxell (average ice thickness = 4.22 m; RMSE = 0.21 m, n = 128). Long-term ice thickness trends require coupling with the thermal structure of the water column. The heat stored within the temperature maximum of lakes exceeding a liquid water column depth of 20 m can either impede or facilitate ice thickness change depending on the predominant climatic trend (temperature cooling or warming). As such, shallow (< 20 m deep water columns) perennially ice-covered lakes without deep temperature maxima are more sensitive indicators of climate change. The long-term ice thickness trends are a result of surface energy flux and heat flux from the deep temperature maximum in the water column, the latter of which results from absorbed solar radiation.

  10. Development of a GIS interface for WEPP Model application to Great Lakes forested watersheds

    Science.gov (United States)

    J. R. Frankenberger; S. Dun; D. C. Flanagan; J. Q. Wu; W. J. Elliot

    2011-01-01

    This presentation will highlight efforts on development of a new online WEPP GIS interface, targeted toward application in forested regions bordering the Great Lakes. The key components and algorithms of the online GIS system will be outlined. The general procedures used to provide input to the WEPP model and to display model output will be demonstrated.

  11. Development of radionuclide transport model in the ecosystem of brackish lake Obuchi

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ueda, Shinji; Kondo, Kunio; Chikuchi, Yuki; Inaba, Jiro

    2003-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to develop a computer code for a radionuclide transport model in Lake Obuchi which is adjacent to nuclear fuel cycle facilities including a nuclear spent-fuel reprocessing plant under construction in Rokkasho-mura. The lake is brackish and this fact makes the entry mode of radionuclides into the lake and its ecosystem very characteristic. For the construction of the code, it is important to incorporate the characteristics of the ecosystem as well as the hydraulic movements into the model. In the present study we report the biological parameters related to the transport model obtained from field observations and a laboratory experiment. We also give results from development of an advective-diffusion model. Monthly field observations revealed that 18 to 47 species of phytoplankton, 9 to 20 species of zooplankton and 0 to 21 species of benthos were present in the lake. A marked seasonal change was observed in the dominant species for both planktons. Mean carbon masses of DOC, POC, phytoplankton and zooplankton in the lake were 16 x 10 4 , 5.9 x 10 4 , 3.7 x 10 4 and 0.20 x 10 4 kg-C, respectively. Phytoplanktons of 10 species in 8 genera were isolated and maintained in a bacteria-free medium in the laboratory. Some physiological and metabolic characteristics of the planktons were studied under those conditions. An advective-diffusion model was developed for particles in the lake. Field observations showed that the model could simulate formation and elimination of the water current. (author)

  12. HYDROLOGIC MODELLING OF KATSINA-ALA RIVER BASIN: AN EMERGING SCENARIO FROM LAKE NYOS THREAT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. O. Akinyede

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Understanding the hydrologic system surrounding crater lakes is of great importance for prevention of flooding damages, conservation of ecological environment, and assessment of socio-economic impact of dam failure on the civilians in the downstream regions. Lake Nyos is a crater lake formed by volcanic activities at the Oku volcanic field on the Cameroon Volcanic Line. It is a freshwater lake with a maximum depth of 200 meter. In 1986, a limnic eruption at the lake emitted 1.6 million tonnes of carbon dioxide from the bottom of saturated water into the air and suffocated up to 1,800 people and 3,500 livestock at nearby villages. The lake waters are held in place by a natural dam composed of loosely consolidated volcanic rock, which is now at the verge of collapse due to accelerated erosion. This study was carried out to determine the flood risks and vulnerability of population and infrastructure along Katsina-Ala drainage basins. The project integrated both satellite images and field datasets into a hydrologic model for Katsina-Ala River Basin and its vicinity including the Lake Nyos. ArcHydro was used to construct a hydrologic database as 'data models' and MIKE SHE was employed to conduct hydrologic simulations. Vulnerable infrastructures, population and socio-economic activities were identified to assist the Federal and State governments in disaster mitigation and management plans. The result of the project provides comprehensive knowledge of hydrologic system of Katsina-Ala drainage basin to mitigate potential future disasters from a potential dam failure and manage water resources against such disasters.

  13. Simulation of Lake Victoria Circulation Patterns Using the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chrispine Nyamweya

    Full Text Available Lake Victoria provides important ecosystem services including transport, water for domestic and industrial uses and fisheries to about 33 million inhabitants in three East African countries. The lake plays an important role in modulating regional climate. Its thermodynamics and hydrodynamics are also influenced by prevailing climatic and weather conditions on diel, seasonal and annual scales. However, information on water temperature and circulation in the lake is limited in space and time. We use a Regional Oceanographic Model System (ROMS to simulate these processes from 1st January 2000 to 31st December 2014. The model is based on real bathymetry, river runoff and atmospheric forcing data using the bulk flux algorithm. Simulations show that the water column exhibits annual cycles of thermo-stratification (September-May and mixing (June-August. Surface water currents take different patterns ranging from a lake-wide northward flow to gyres that vary in size and number. An under flow exists that leads to the formation of upwelling and downwelling regions. Current velocities are highest at the center of the lake and on the western inshore waters indicating enhanced water circulation in those areas. However, there is little exchange of water between the major gulfs (especially Nyanza and the open lake, a factor that could be responsible for the different water quality reported in those regions. Findings of the present study enhance understanding of the physical processes (temperature and currents that have an effect on diel, seasonal, and annual variations in stratification, vertical mixing, inshore-offshore exchanges and fluxes of nutrients that ultimately influence the biotic distribution and trophic structure. For instance information on areas/timing of upwelling and vertical mixing obtained from this study will help predict locations/seasons of high primary production and ultimately fisheries productivity in Lake Victoria.

  14. Simulation of Lake Victoria Circulation Patterns Using the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nyamweya, Chrispine; Desjardins, Christopher; Sigurdsson, Sven; Tomasson, Tumi; Taabu-Munyaho, Anthony; Sitoki, Lewis; Stefansson, Gunnar

    2016-01-01

    Lake Victoria provides important ecosystem services including transport, water for domestic and industrial uses and fisheries to about 33 million inhabitants in three East African countries. The lake plays an important role in modulating regional climate. Its thermodynamics and hydrodynamics are also influenced by prevailing climatic and weather conditions on diel, seasonal and annual scales. However, information on water temperature and circulation in the lake is limited in space and time. We use a Regional Oceanographic Model System (ROMS) to simulate these processes from 1st January 2000 to 31st December 2014. The model is based on real bathymetry, river runoff and atmospheric forcing data using the bulk flux algorithm. Simulations show that the water column exhibits annual cycles of thermo-stratification (September-May) and mixing (June-August). Surface water currents take different patterns ranging from a lake-wide northward flow to gyres that vary in size and number. An under flow exists that leads to the formation of upwelling and downwelling regions. Current velocities are highest at the center of the lake and on the western inshore waters indicating enhanced water circulation in those areas. However, there is little exchange of water between the major gulfs (especially Nyanza) and the open lake, a factor that could be responsible for the different water quality reported in those regions. Findings of the present study enhance understanding of the physical processes (temperature and currents) that have an effect on diel, seasonal, and annual variations in stratification, vertical mixing, inshore-offshore exchanges and fluxes of nutrients that ultimately influence the biotic distribution and trophic structure. For instance information on areas/timing of upwelling and vertical mixing obtained from this study will help predict locations/seasons of high primary production and ultimately fisheries productivity in Lake Victoria.

  15. Draft genome of the Antarctic dragonfish, Parachaenichthys charcoti.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahn, Do-Hwan; Shin, Seung Chul; Kim, Bo-Mi; Kang, Seunghyun; Kim, Jin-Hyoung; Ahn, Inhye; Park, Joonho; Park, Hyun

    2017-08-01

    The Antarctic bathydraconid dragonfish, Parachaenichthys charcoti, is an Antarctic notothenioid teleost endemic to the Southern Ocean. The Southern Ocean has cooled to -1.8ºC over the past 30 million years, and the seawater had retained this cold temperature and isolated oceanic environment because of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. Notothenioids dominate Antarctic fish, making up 90% of the biomass, and all notothenioids have undergone molecular and ecological diversification to survive in this cold environment. Therefore, they are considered an attractive Antarctic fish model for evolutionary and ancestral genomic studies. Bathydraconidae is a speciose family of the Notothenioidei, the dominant taxonomic component of Antarctic teleosts. To understand the process of evolution of Antarctic fish, we select a typical Antarctic bathydraconid dragonfish, P. charcoti. Here, we have sequenced, de novo assembled, and annotated a comprehensive genome from P. charcoti. The draft genome of P. charcoti is 709 Mb in size. The N50 contig length is 6145 bp, and its N50 scaffold length 178 362 kb. The genome of P. charcoti is predicted to contain 32 712 genes, 18 455 of which have been assigned preliminary functions. A total of 8951 orthologous groups common to 7 species of fish were identified, while 333 genes were identified in P. charcoti only; 2519 orthologous groups were also identified in both P. charcoti and N. coriiceps, another Antarctic fish. Four gene ontology terms were statistically overrepresented among the 333 genes unique to P. charcoti, according to gene ontology enrichment analysis. The draft P. charcoti genome will broaden our understanding of the evolution of Antarctic fish in their extreme environment. It will provide a basis for further investigating the unusual characteristics of Antarctic fishes. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press.

  16. Modeling the Hydrological Regime of Turkana Lake (Kenya, Ethiopia) by Combining Spatially Distributed Hydrological Modeling and Remote Sensing Datasets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anghileri, D.; Kaelin, A.; Peleg, N.; Fatichi, S.; Molnar, P.; Roques, C.; Longuevergne, L.; Burlando, P.

    2017-12-01

    Hydrological modeling in poorly gauged basins can benefit from the use of remote sensing datasets although there are challenges associated with the mismatch in spatial and temporal scales between catchment scale hydrological models and remote sensing products. We model the hydrological processes and long-term water budget of the Lake Turkana catchment, a transboundary basin between Kenya and Ethiopia, by integrating several remote sensing products into a spatially distributed and physically explicit model, Topkapi-ETH. Lake Turkana is the world largest desert lake draining a catchment of 145'500 km2. It has three main contributing rivers: the Omo river, which contributes most of the annual lake inflow, the Turkwel river, and the Kerio rivers, which contribute the remaining part. The lake levels have shown great variations in the last decades due to long-term climate fluctuations and the regulation of three reservoirs, Gibe I, II, and III, which significantly alter the hydrological seasonality. Another large reservoir is planned and may be built in the next decade, generating concerns about the fate of Lake Turkana in the long run because of this additional anthropogenic pressure and increasing evaporation driven by climate change. We consider different remote sensing datasets, i.e., TRMM-V7 for precipitation, MERRA-2 for temperature, as inputs to the spatially distributed hydrological model. We validate the simulation results with other remote sensing datasets, i.e., GRACE for total water storage anomalies, GLDAS-NOAH for soil moisture, ERA-Interim/Land for surface runoff, and TOPEX/Poseidon for satellite altimetry data. Results highlight how different remote sensing products can be integrated into a hydrological modeling framework accounting for their relative uncertainties. We also carried out simulations with the artificial reservoirs planned in the north part of the catchment and without any reservoirs, to assess their impacts on the catchment hydrological

  17. Improving the precision of lake ecosystem metabolism estimates by identifying predictors of model uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rose, Kevin C.; Winslow, Luke A.; Read, Jordan S.; Read, Emily K.; Solomon, Christopher T.; Adrian, Rita; Hanson, Paul C.

    2014-01-01

    Diel changes in dissolved oxygen are often used to estimate gross primary production (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (ER) in aquatic ecosystems. Despite the widespread use of this approach to understand ecosystem metabolism, we are only beginning to understand the degree and underlying causes of uncertainty for metabolism model parameter estimates. Here, we present a novel approach to improve the precision and accuracy of ecosystem metabolism estimates by identifying physical metrics that indicate when metabolism estimates are highly uncertain. Using datasets from seventeen instrumented GLEON (Global Lake Ecological Observatory Network) lakes, we discovered that many physical characteristics correlated with uncertainty, including PAR (photosynthetically active radiation, 400-700 nm), daily variance in Schmidt stability, and wind speed. Low PAR was a consistent predictor of high variance in GPP model parameters, but also corresponded with low ER model parameter variance. We identified a threshold (30% of clear sky PAR) below which GPP parameter variance increased rapidly and was significantly greater in nearly all lakes compared with variance on days with PAR levels above this threshold. The relationship between daily variance in Schmidt stability and GPP model parameter variance depended on trophic status, whereas daily variance in Schmidt stability was consistently positively related to ER model parameter variance. Wind speeds in the range of ~0.8-3 m s–1 were consistent predictors of high variance for both GPP and ER model parameters, with greater uncertainty in eutrophic lakes. Our findings can be used to reduce ecosystem metabolism model parameter uncertainty and identify potential sources of that uncertainty.

  18. A biogeochemical model of Lake Pusiano (North Italy and its use in the predictability of phytoplankton blooms: first preliminary results

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alessandro OGGIONI

    2006-02-01

    Full Text Available This study reports the first preliminary results of the DYRESM-CAEDYM model application to a mid size sub-alpine lake (Lake Pusiano North Italy. The in-lake modelling is a part of a more general project called Pusiano Integrated Lake/Catchment project (PILE whose final goal is to understand the hydrological and trophic relationship between lake and catchment, supporting the restoration plan of the lake through field data analysis and numerical models. DYRESM is a 1D-3D hydrodynamics model for predicting the vertical profile of temperature, salinity and density. CAEDYM is multi-component ecological model, used here as a phytoplankton-zooplankton processes based model, which includes algorithms to simulate the nutrient cycles within the water column as well as the air-water gas exchanges and the water-sediments fluxes. The first results of the hydrodynamics simulations underline the capability of the model to accurately simulate the surface temperature seasonal trend and the thermal gradient whereas, during summer stratification, the model underestimates the bottom temperature of around 2 °C. The ecological model describes the epilimnetic reactive phosphorus (PO4 depletion (due to the phytoplankton uptake and the increase in PO4 concentrations in the deepest layers of the lake (due to the mineralization processes and the sediments release. In terms of phytoplankton dynamics the model accounts for the Planktothrix rubescens dominance during the whole season, whereas it seems to underestimate the peak in primary production related to both the simulated algal groups (P. rubescens and the rest of the other species aggregated in a single class. The future aims of the project are to complete the model parameterization and to connect the in-lake and the catchment modelling in order to gain an integrated view of the lake-catchment ecosystem as well as to develop a three dimensional model of the lake.

  19. Modeled tephra ages from lake sediments, base of Redoubt Volcano, Alaska

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schiff, C J; Kaufman, D S; Wallace, K L; Werner, A; Ku, T L; Brown, T A

    2007-02-25

    A 5.6-m-long lake sediment core from Bear Lake, Alaska, located 22 km southeast of Redoubt Volcano, contains 67 tephra layers deposited over the last 8750 cal yr, comprising 15% of the total thickness of recovered sediment. Using 12 AMS {sup 14}C ages, along with the {sup 137}Cs and {sup 210}Pb activities of recent sediment, we evaluated different models to determine the age-depth relation of sediment, and to determine the age of each tephra deposit. The age model is based on a cubic smooth spline function that was passed through the adjusted tephra-free depth of each dated layer. The estimated age uncertainty of the 67 tephras averages {+-} 105 yr (1{sigma}). Tephra-fall frequency at Bear Lake was among the highest during the past 500 yr, with eight tephras deposited compared to an average of 3.7 per 500 yr over the last 8500 yr. Other periods of increased tephra fall occurred 2500-3500, 4500-5000, and 7000-7500 cal yr. Our record suggests that Bear Lake experienced extended periods (1000-2000 yr) of increased tephra fall separated by shorter periods (500-1000 yr) of apparent quiescence. The Bear Lake sediment core affords the most comprehensive tephrochronology from the base of the Redoubt Volcano to date, with an average tephra-fall frequency of once every 130 yr.

  20. The Development of a Customization Framework for the WRF Model over the Lake Victoria Basin, Eastern Africa on Seasonal Timescales

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Argent

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Lake Victoria, Africa, supports millions of people. To produce reliable climate projections, it is desirable to successfully model the rainfall over the lake accurately. An initial step is taken here with customization of the Weather, Research, and Forecast (WRF model. Of particular interest is an asymmetrical rainfall pattern across the lake basin, due to a diurnal land-lake breeze. The main aim is to present a customization framework for use over the lake. This framework is developed by conducting several series of model runs to investigate aspects of the customization. The runs are analyzed using Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission rainfall data and Climatic Research Unit temperature data. The study shows that the choice of parameters and lake surface temperature initialization can significantly alter the results. Also, the optimal physics combinations for the climatology may not necessarily be suitable for all circumstances, such as extreme years. The study concludes that WRF is unable to reproduce the pattern across the lake. The temperature of the lake is too cold and this prevents the diurnal land-lake breeze reversal. Overall, this study highlights the importance of customizing a model to the region of research and presents a framework through which this may be achieved.

  1. Lake Area Analysis Using Exponential Smoothing Model and Long Time-Series Landsat Images in Wuhan, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gonghao Duan

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The loss of lake area significantly influences the climate change in a region, and this loss represents a serious and unavoidable challenge to maintaining ecological sustainability under the circumstances of lakes that are being filled. Therefore, mapping and forecasting changes in the lake is critical for protecting the environment and mitigating ecological problems in the urban district. We created an accessible map displaying area changes for 82 lakes in the Wuhan city using remote sensing data in conjunction with visual interpretation by combining field data with Landsat 2/5/7/8 Thematic Mapper (TM time-series images for the period 1987–2013. In addition, we applied a quadratic exponential smoothing model to forecast lake area changes in Wuhan city. The map provides, for the first time, estimates of lake development in Wuhan using data required for local-scale studies. The model predicted a lake area reduction of 18.494 km2 in 2015. The average error reached 0.23 with a correlation coefficient of 0.98, indicating that the model is reliable. The paper provided a numerical analysis and forecasting method to provide a better understanding of lake area changes. The modeling and mapping results can help assess aquatic habitat suitability and property planning for Wuhan lakes.

  2. Modeling the effects of climatic and land use changes on phytoplankton and water quality of the largest Turkish freshwater lake: Lake Beyşehir.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bucak, Tuba; Trolle, Dennis; Tavşanoğlu, Ü Nihan; Çakıroğlu, A İdil; Özen, Arda; Jeppesen, Erik; Beklioğlu, Meryem

    2018-04-15

    Climate change and intense land use practices are the main threats to ecosystem structure and services of Mediterranean lakes. Therefore, it is essential to predict the future changes and develop mitigation measures to combat such pressures. In this study, Lake Beyşehir, the largest freshwater lake in the Mediterranean basin, was selected to study the impacts of climate change and various land use scenarios on the ecosystem dynamics of Mediterranean freshwater ecosystems and the services that they provide. For this purpose, we linked catchment model outputs to the two different processed-based lake models: PCLake and GLM-AED, and tested the scenarios of five General Circulation Models, two Representation Concentration Pathways and three different land use scenarios, which enable us to consider the various sources of uncertainty. Climate change and land use scenarios generally predicted strong future decreases in hydraulic and nutrient loads from the catchment to the lake. These changes in loads translated into alterations in water level as well as minor changes in chlorophyll a (Chl-a) concentrations. We also observed an increased abundance of cyanobacteria in both lake models. Total phosphorus, temperature and hydraulic loading were found to be the most important variables determining cyanobacteria biomass. As the future scenarios revealed only minor changes in Chl-a due to the significant decrease in nutrient loads, our results highlight that reduced nutrient loading in a warming world may play a crucial role in offsetting the effects of temperature on phytoplankton growth. However, our results also showed increased abundance of cyanobacteria in the future may threaten ecosystem integrity and may limit drinking water ecosystem services. In addition, extended periods of decreased hydraulic loads from the catchment and increased evaporation may lead to water level reductions and may diminish the ecosystem services of the lake as a water supply for irrigation and

  3. High geothermal heat flux measured below the West Antarctic Ice Sheet.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fisher, Andrew T; Mankoff, Kenneth D; Tulaczyk, Slawek M; Tyler, Scott W; Foley, Neil

    2015-07-01

    The geothermal heat flux is a critical thermal boundary condition that influences the melting, flow, and mass balance of ice sheets, but measurements of this parameter are difficult to make in ice-covered regions. We report the first direct measurement of geothermal heat flux into the base of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS), below Subglacial Lake Whillans, determined from the thermal gradient and the thermal conductivity of sediment under the lake. The heat flux at this site is 285 ± 80 mW/m(2), significantly higher than the continental and regional averages estimated for this site using regional geophysical and glaciological models. Independent temperature measurements in the ice indicate an upward heat flux through the WAIS of 105 ± 13 mW/m(2). The difference between these heat flux values could contribute to basal melting and/or be advected from Subglacial Lake Whillans by flowing water. The high geothermal heat flux may help to explain why ice streams and subglacial lakes are so abundant and dynamic in this region.

  4. High geothermal heat flux measured below the West Antarctic Ice Sheet

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fisher, Andrew T.; Mankoff, Kenneth D.; Tulaczyk, Slawek M.; Tyler, Scott W.; Foley, Neil

    2015-01-01

    The geothermal heat flux is a critical thermal boundary condition that influences the melting, flow, and mass balance of ice sheets, but measurements of this parameter are difficult to make in ice-covered regions. We report the first direct measurement of geothermal heat flux into the base of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS), below Subglacial Lake Whillans, determined from the thermal gradient and the thermal conductivity of sediment under the lake. The heat flux at this site is 285 ± 80 mW/m2, significantly higher than the continental and regional averages estimated for this site using regional geophysical and glaciological models. Independent temperature measurements in the ice indicate an upward heat flux through the WAIS of 105 ± 13 mW/m2. The difference between these heat flux values could contribute to basal melting and/or be advected from Subglacial Lake Whillans by flowing water. The high geothermal heat flux may help to explain why ice streams and subglacial lakes are so abundant and dynamic in this region. PMID:26601210

  5. Developing A Model for Lake Ice Phenology Using Satellite Remote Sensing Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skoglund, S. K.; Weathers, K. C.; Norouzi, H.; Prakash, S.; Ewing, H. A.

    2017-12-01

    Many northern temperate freshwater lakes are freezing over later and thawing earlier. This shift in timing, and the resulting shorter duration of seasonal ice cover, is expected to impact ecological processes, negatively affecting aquatic species and the quality of water we drink. Long-term, direct observations have been used to analyze changes in ice phenology, but those data are sparse relative to the number of lakes affected. Here we develop a model to utilize remote sensing data in approximating the dates of ice-on and ice-off for many years over a variety of lakes. Day and night surface temperatures from MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) Aqua and Terra (MYD11A1 and MOD11A1 data products) for 2002-2017 were utilized in combination with observed ice-on and ice-off dates of Lake Auburn, Maine, to determine the ability of MODIS data to match ground-based observations. A moving average served to interpolate MODIS temperature data to fill data gaps from cloudy days. The nighttime data were used for ice-off, and the daytime measurements were used for ice-on predictions to avoid fluctuations between day and night ice/water status. The 0˚C intercepts of those data were used to mark approximate days of ice-on or ice-off. This revealed that approximations for ice-off dates were satisfactory (average ±8.2 days) for Lake Auburn as well as for Lake Sunapee, New Hampshire (average ±8.1 days), while approximations for Lake Auburn ice-on were less accurate and showed consistently earlier-than-observed ice-on dates (average -33.8 days). The comparison of observed and remotely sensed Lake Auburn ice cover duration showed relative agreement with a correlation coefficient of 0.46. Other remote sensing observations, such as the new GOES-R satellite, and further exploration of the ice formation process can improve ice-on approximation methods. The model shows promise for estimating ice-on, ice-off, and ice cover duration for northern temperate lakes.

  6. Wind variability and sheltering effects on measurements and modeling of air-water exchange for a small lake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Markfort, Corey D.; Resseger, Emily; Porté-Agel, Fernando; Stefan, Heinz

    2014-05-01

    Lakes with a surface area of less than 10 km2 account for over 50% of the global cumulative lake surface water area, and make up more than 99% of the total number of global lakes, ponds, and wetlands. Within the boreal regions as well as some temperate and tropical areas, a significant proportion of land cover is characterized by lakes or wetlands, which can have a dramatic effect on land-atmosphere fluxes as well as the local and regional energy budget. Many of these small water bodies are surrounded by complex terrain and forest, which cause the wind blowing over a small lake or wetland to be highly variable. Wind mixing of the lake surface layer affects thermal stratification, surface temperature and air-water gas transfer, e.g. O2, CO2, and CH4. As the wind blows from the land to the lake, wake turbulence behind trees and other shoreline obstacles leads to a recirculation zone and enhanced turbulence. This wake flow results in the delay of the development of wind shear stress on the lake surface, and the fetch required for surface shear stress to fully develop may be ~O(1 km). Interpretation of wind measurements made on the lake is hampered by the unknown effect of wake turbulence. We present field measurements designed to quantify wind variability over a sheltered lake. The wind data and water column temperature profiles are used to evaluate a new method to quantify wind sheltering of lakes that takes into account lake size, shape and the surrounding landscape features. The model is validated against field data for 36 Minnesota lakes. Effects of non-uniform sheltering and lake shape are also demonstrated. The effects of wind sheltering must be included in lake models to determine the effect of wind-derived energy inputs on lake stratification, surface gas transfer, lake water quality, and fish habitat. These effects are also important for correctly modeling momentum, heat, moisture and trace gas flux to the atmosphere.

  7. Modeling level change in Lake Urmia using hybrid artificial intelligence approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Esbati, M.; Ahmadieh Khanesar, M.; Shahzadi, Ali

    2017-06-01

    The investigation of water level fluctuations in lakes for protecting them regarding the importance of these water complexes in national and regional scales has found a special place among countries in recent years. The importance of the prediction of water level balance in Lake Urmia is necessary due to several-meter fluctuations in the last decade which help the prevention from possible future losses. For this purpose, in this paper, the performance of adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) for predicting the lake water level balance has been studied. In addition, for the training of the adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system, particle swarm optimization (PSO) and hybrid backpropagation-recursive least square method algorithm have been used. Moreover, a hybrid method based on particle swarm optimization and recursive least square (PSO-RLS) training algorithm for the training of ANFIS structure is introduced. In order to have a more fare comparison, hybrid particle swarm optimization and gradient descent are also applied. The models have been trained, tested, and validated based on lake level data between 1991 and 2014. For performance evaluation, a comparison is made between these methods. Numerical results obtained show that the proposed methods with a reasonable error have a good performance in water level balance prediction. It is also clear that with continuing the current trend, Lake Urmia will experience more drop in the water level balance in the upcoming years.

  8. An integrated system dynamics model developed for managing lake water quality at the watershed scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Hui; Benoit, Gaboury; Liu, Tao; Liu, Yong; Guo, Huaicheng

    2015-05-15

    A reliable system simulation to relate socioeconomic development with water environment and to comprehensively represent a watershed's dynamic features is important. In this study, after identifying lake watershed system processes, we developed a system dynamics modeling framework for managing lake water quality at the watershed scale. Two reinforcing loops (Development and Investment Promotion) and three balancing loops (Pollution, Resource Consumption, and Pollution Control) were constituted. Based on this work, we constructed Stock and Flow Diagrams that embedded a pollutant load model and a lake water quality model into a socioeconomic system dynamics model. The Dianchi Lake in Yunnan Province, China, which is the sixth largest and among the most severely polluted freshwater lakes in China, was employed as a case study to demonstrate the applicability of the model. Water quality parameters considered in the model included chemical oxygen demand (COD), total nitrogen (TN), and total phosphorus (TP). The business-as-usual (BAU) scenario and three alternative management scenarios on spatial adjustment of industries and population (S1), wastewater treatment capacity construction (S2), and structural adjustment of agriculture (S3), were simulated to assess the effectiveness of certain policies in improving water quality. Results showed that S2 is most effective scenario, and the COD, TN, and TP concentrations in Caohai in 2030 are 52.5, 10.9, and 0.8 mg/L, while those in Waihai are 9.6, 1.2, and 0.08 mg/L, with sustained development in the watershed. Thus, the model can help support the decision making required in development and environmental protection strategies. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. ECONOMETRIC MODELLING OD THE INFLUENCE OF LAKE WATER QUALITY CHANGES ON FISHING ECONOMY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marek Antoni Ramczyk

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The econometric model can be a precise instrument for the analysis of the impact of the natural environment's degradation on fishing economy. This paper aims at analysing the influence of the water quality changes in lake Charzykowskie on the fishing economy. This dissertation present the results of a research on the lake water pollution's impact on fishing economy. The economic-ecological models have been constructed, explaining the changes of economic effects of the lake fishery in the conditions of an increasing water pollution in the epilimnion on the example of the catch of Rutilus rutilus, Abramis brama, Blicca bjoerkna, Coregonus albula, Coregonus lavaretus, Anguilla anguilla and Esox lucius in Lake Charzykowskie. Performed empirical research looked into the influence of the environmental factors on the size of fish catch. Calculations and analysis show clearly that though the habitat factors do influence the catch size of each studied fish species, they do it with different intensity and in various combinations. Both lake water quality and climate factors changes cause measurable effects on fishing industry of lake Charzykowskie. Among all the examined Rutilus rutilus, Abramis brama and Blicca bjoerkna the highest environmental requirements concerning water quality has Blicca bjoerkna. Whereas Abramis brama has slightly higher environmental requirements than Rutilus rutilus. Empirical calculations showed as well that Coregonus albula and Coregonus lavaretus have considerably higher water cleanness requirements than Rutilus rutilus, Abramis brama and Blicca bjoerkna. While when talking about Rutilus rutilus, Abramis brama and Blicca bjoerkna, most water characteristics still rather stimulated these species' development, when it comes to Coregonus albula and Coregonus lavaretus, in general they suppressed their development. The model has also proved quite high habitat requierements of Anquilla anquilla and correctness of the thesis that

  10. Challenge to the model of lake charr evolution: Shallow- and deep-water morphs exist within a small postglacial lake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chavarie, Louise; Muir, Andrew M.; Zimmerman, Mara S.; Baillie, Shauna M.; Hansen, Michael J.; Nate, Nancy A.; Yule, Daniel L.; Middel, Trevor; Bentzen, Paul; Krueger, Charles C.

    2016-01-01

    All examples of lake charr (Salvelinus namaycush) diversity occur within the largest, deepest lakes of North America (i.e. > 2000 km2). We report here Rush Lake (1.3 km2) as the first example of a small lake with two lake charr morphs (lean and huronicus). Morphology, diet, life history, and genetics were examined to demonstrate the existence of morphs and determine the potential influence of evolutionary processes that led to their formation or maintenance. Results showed that the huronicus morph, caught in deep-water, had a deeper body, smaller head and jaws, higher eye position, greater buoyancy, and deeper peduncle than the shallow-water lean morph. Huronicus grew slower to a smaller adult size, and had an older mean age than the lean morph. Genetic comparisons showed low genetic divergence between morphs, indicating incomplete reproductive isolation. Phenotypic plasticity and differences in habitat use between deep and shallow waters associated with variation in foraging opportunities seems to have been sufficient to maintain the two morphs, demonstrating their important roles in resource polymorphism. Rush Lake expands previous explanations for lake charr intraspecific diversity, from large to small lakes and from reproductive isolation to the presence of gene flow associated with strong ecological drivers.

  11. Prediction of inflows into Lake Kariba using a combination of physical and empirical models

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Muchuru, S

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available the upper Zambezi catchment as predictor in a statistical model for estimating seasonal inflows into Lake Kariba. The second and more sophisticated method uses predicted low-level atmospheric circulation of a coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation...

  12. IMPORTANCE OF TEMPERATURE IN MODELLING PCB BIOACCUMULATION IN THE LAKE MICHIGAN FOOD WEB

    Science.gov (United States)

    In most food web models, the exposure temperature of a food web is typically defined using a single spatial compartment. This essentially assumes that the predator and prey are exposed to the same temperature. However, in a large water body such as Lake Michigan, due to the spati...

  13. Prediction of lake surface temperature using the air2water model: guidelines, challenges, and future perspectives

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sebastiano Piccolroaz

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Water temperature plays a primary role in controlling a wide range of physical, geochemical and ecological processes in lakes, with considerable influences on lake water quality and ecosystem functioning. Being able to reliably predict water temperature is therefore a desired goal, which stimulated the development of models of different type and complexity, ranging from simple regression-based models to more sophisticated process-based numerical models. However, both types of models suffer of some limitations: the first are not able to address some fundamental physical processes as e.g., thermal stratification, while the latter generally require a large amount of data in input, which are not always available. In this work, lake surface temperature is simulated by means of air2water, a hybrid physically-based/statistical model, which is able to provide a robust, predictive understanding of LST dynamics knowing air temperature only. This model showed performances that are comparable with those obtained by using process based models (a root mean square error on the order of 1°C, at daily scale, while retaining the simplicity and parsimony of regression-based models, thus making it a good candidate for long-term applications.The aim of the present work is to provide the reader with useful and practical guidelines for proper use of the air2water model and for critical analysis of results. Two case studies have been selected for the analysis: Lake Superior and Lake Erie. These are clear and emblematic examples of a deep and a shallow temperate lake characterized by markedly different thermal responses to external forcing, thus are ideal for making the results of the analysis the most general and comprehensive. Particular attention is paid to assessing the influence of missing data on model performance, and to evaluating when an observed time series is sufficiently informative for proper model calibration or, conversely, data are too scarce thus

  14. Freshwater lakes--a potential source for aquaculture activities--a model study on Perumal Lake, Cuddalore, Tamil Nadu.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Usha, R; Ramalingam, K; Bharathi Rajan, U D

    2006-10-01

    The freshwater Perumal lake located at Cuddalore was assessed for its suitability and potential for aquaculture practices. Various hydrobiological parameters determined reveals that the various physicochemical characteristics are with in normal range of values. The DO level, BOD and COD values determined in the lake revealed the consequences of community activities and pollution possibilities. The primary productivity data revealed maximum productivity during March which infer that the lake is unaffected by anthropogenic disturbance and community contamination. The bacterial count remained higher during the monsoon periods, which characterize profuse rainfall and storm water discharge into the lake. The microfauna includes zooplankter such as cladocerans, copepods, rotifers and ostracods. Benthos include carps, catfishes, mullets and prawns. The above study revealed that the various parameters in the lake conform to the levels suited for freshwater fish culture and represents a resource for scientific management.

  15. Modelling the physical multiphase interactions of HNO3 between snow and air on the Antarctic Plateau (Dome C) and coast (Halley)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chan, Hoi Ga; Frey, Markus M.; King, Martin D.

    2018-02-01

    Emissions of nitrogen oxide (NOx = NO + NO2) from the photolysis of nitrate (NO3-) in snow affect the oxidising capacity of the lower troposphere especially in remote regions of high latitudes with little pollution. Current air-snow exchange models are limited by poor understanding of processes and often require unphysical tuning parameters. Here, two multiphase models were developed from physically based parameterisations to describe the interaction of nitrate between the surface layer of the snowpack and the overlying atmosphere. The first model is similar to previous approaches and assumes that below a threshold temperature, To, the air-snow grain interface is pure ice and above To a disordered interface (DI) emerges covering the entire grain surface. The second model assumes that air-ice interactions dominate over all temperatures below melting of ice and that any liquid present above the eutectic temperature is concentrated in micropockets. The models are used to predict the nitrate in surface snow constrained by year-round observations of mixing ratios of nitric acid in air at a cold site on the Antarctic Plateau (Dome C; 75°06' S, 123°33' E; 3233 m a.s.l.) and at a relatively warm site on the Antarctic coast (Halley; 75°35' S, 26°39' E; 35 m a.s.l). The first model agrees reasonably well with observations at Dome C (Cv(RMSE) = 1.34) but performs poorly at Halley (Cv(RMSE) = 89.28) while the second model reproduces with good agreement observations at both sites (Cv(RMSE) = 0.84 at both sites). It is therefore suggested that in winter air-snow interactions of nitrate are determined by non-equilibrium surface adsorption and co-condensation on ice coupled with solid-state diffusion inside the grain, similar to Bock et al. (2016). In summer, however, the air-snow exchange of nitrate is mainly driven by solvation into liquid micropockets following Henry's law with contributions to total surface snow NO3- concentrations of 75 and 80 % at Dome C and Halley

  16. Coastal Water Quality Modeling in Tidal Lake: Revisited with Groundwater Intrusion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, C.

    2016-12-01

    A new method for predicting the temporal and spatial variation of water quality, with accounting for a groundwater effect, has been proposed and applied to a water body partially connected to macro-tidal coastal waters in Korea. The method consists of direct measurement of environmental parameters, and it indirectly incorporates a nutrients budget analysis to estimate the submarine groundwater fluxes. Three-dimensional numerical modeling of water quality has been used with the directly collected data and the indirectly estimated groundwater fluxes. The applied area is Saemangeum tidal lake that is enclosed by 33km-long sea dyke with tidal openings at two water gates. Many investigations of groundwater impact reveal that 10 50% of nutrient loading in coastal waters comes from submarine groundwater, particularly in the macro-tidal flat, as in the west coast of Korea. Long-term monitoring of coastal water quality signals the possibility of groundwater influence on salinity reversal and on the excess mass outbalancing the normal budget in Saemangeum tidal lake. In the present study, we analyze the observed data to examine the influence of submarine groundwater, and then a box model is demonstrated for quantifying the influx and efflux. A three-dimensional numerical model has been applied to reproduce the process of groundwater dispersal and its effect on the water quality of Saemangeum tidal lake. The results show that groundwater influx during the summer monsoon then contributes significantly, 20% more than during dry season, to water quality in the tidal lake.

  17. Computing the transport time scales of a stratified lake on the basis of Tonolli’s model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marco Pilotti

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper deals with a simple model to evaluate the transport time scales in thermally stratified lakes that do not necessarily completely mix on a regular annual basis. The model is based on the formalization of an idea originally proposed in Italian by Tonolli in 1964, who presented a mass balance of the water initially stored within a lake, taking into account the known seasonal evolution of its thermal structure. The numerical solution of this mass balance provides an approximation to the water age distribution for the conceptualised lake, from which an upper bound to the typical time scales widely used in limnology can be obtained. After discussing the original test case considered by Tonolli, we apply the model to Lake Iseo, a deep lake located in the North of Italy, presenting the results obtained on the basis of a 30 year series of data.

  18. A mercury transport and fate model (LM2-mercury) for mass budget assessment of mercury cycling in Lake Michigan

    Science.gov (United States)

    LM2-Mercury, a mercury mass balance model, was developed to simulate and evaluate the transport, fate, and biogeochemical transformations of mercury in Lake Michigan. The model simulates total suspended solids (TSS), disolved organic carbon (DOC), and total, elemental, divalent, ...

  19. Regional groundwater-flow model of the Lake Michigan Basin in support of Great Lakes Basin water availability and use studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feinstein, D.T.; Hunt, R.J.; Reeves, H.W.

    2010-01-01

    A regional groundwater-flow model of the Lake Michigan Basin and surrounding areas has been developed in support of the Great Lakes Basin Pilot project under the U.S. Geological Survey's National Water Availability and Use Program. The transient 2-million-cell model incorporates multiple aquifers and pumping centers that create water-level drawdown that extends into deep saline waters. The 20-layer model simulates the exchange between a dense surface-water network and heterogeneous glacial deposits overlying stratified bedrock of the Wisconsin/Kankakee Arches and Michigan Basin in the Lower and Upper Peninsulas of Michigan; eastern Wisconsin; northern Indiana; and northeastern Illinois. The model is used to quantify changes in the groundwater system in response to pumping and variations in recharge from 1864 to 2005. Model results quantify the sources of water to major pumping centers, illustrate the dynamics of the groundwater system, and yield measures of water availability useful for water-resources management in the region. This report is a complete description of the methods and datasets used to develop the regional model, the underlying conceptual model, and model inputs, including specified values of material properties and the assignment of external and internal boundary conditions. The report also documents the application of the SEAWAT-2000 program for variable-density flow; it details the approach, advanced methods, and results associated with calibration through nonlinear regression using the PEST program; presents the water-level, drawdown, and groundwater flows for various geographic subregions and aquifer systems; and provides analyses of the effects of pumping from shallow and deep wells on sources of water to wells, the migration of groundwater divides, and direct and indirect groundwater discharge to Lake Michigan. The report considers the role of unconfined conditions at the regional scale as well as the influence of salinity on groundwater flow

  20. Spatiotemporal monitoring of Bakhtegan Lake's areal fluctuations and an exploration of its future status by applying a cellular automata model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jokar Arsanjani, Taghi; Javidan, Reza; Nazemosadat, Mohamad Jafar; Jokar Arsanjani, Jamal; Vaz, Eric

    2015-05-01

    Recent developments of geospatial technologies and models have provided environmentalists and naturalists with a wide variety of facilities and approaches for improved monitoring and management of environmental resources. Rich temporal remote sensing datasets, e.g., Landsat imagery as well as geospatial modeling techniques, facilitate the process of monitoring and modeling environmental phenomena. The main objective of this paper is to monitor the spatiotemporal patterns of fluctuations of a dynamic lake in the south of Iran - Bakhtegan Lake - which has been influenced by extreme climate change conditions. To do so, a temporal coverage of 12 Landsat images from 1973 to 2013, was used to delineate the boundaries of the lake over time and analyze the occurred changes. Next, a cellular automata (CA) approach was adopted for simulating two main processes: 'lake expansion' and 'lake shrinkage'. The CA model was then calibrated based on a statistical comparison of the simulated and actual images of one timestamp. Application of Kappa index analysis measures the performance of the model at a value of 83 percent. The calibrated CA model was then applied and the future status of the lake (by 2017) was modeled; this suggested a further 45 percent shrinkage in addition to its recent 42 percent shrinkage. In conclusion, the socio-ecological impacts and consequences of the lake's fluctuations are discussed in detail and some complementary recommendations are proposed.

  1. Numerical Modelling Approaches for Assessing Improvements to the Flow Circulation in a Small Lake

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cheng He

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Kamaniskeg Lake is a long, narrow, and deep small lake located in the northern part of Ontario, Canada. The goals of this paper were to examine various options to improve the water quality in the northern part of the lake by altering the local hydraulic flow conditions. Towards this end, a preliminary screening suggested that the flow circulation could be increased around a central island (Mask Island in the northern part of the lake by opening up an existing causeway connecting the mainland and central island. Three-dimensional (3D hydraulic and transport models were adopted in this paper to investigate the hydraulic conditions under various wind forces and causeway structures. The modelling results show that opening the causeway in a few places is unlikely to generate a large flow circulation around the central island. Full circulation only appears to be possible if the causeway is fully removed and a strong wind blows in a favourable direction. The possible reasons for existing water quality variations at the intake of a local WTP (water treatment plant are also explored in the paper.

  2. Numerical Modelling of the 1995 Dinar Earthquake Effects on Hydrodynamic Regime of Egirdir Lake

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Murat Aksel

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available The effect of earthquakes on closed and semi-closed water systems is a research topic that has been studied for many years. The lack of continuous measurement systems in closed and semi-closed water systems is insufficient to examine and investigate what has happened during the earthquake. The morphological structures of the lakes indicate the characteristics of the events that occurred during an earthquake. Due to the developing technology and research request, some monitoring, measurement stations are installed in some lakes, gulfs, estuaries, etc. systems. Today, both higher quality measurement and field data can be obtained, and more complicated processes are being explored with the help of faster computers. Computational fluid dynamics is currently used because of the difficulty in calculating hydrodynamic responses of lakes due to earthquake. Investigations on the effects of the earthquake condition on the desired closed / semi-closed water system studies by using numerical modelling have been continuing increasingly in recent years. Both the quality of the bathymetric data gathered from the field, the continuous acquisition of both dynamic water level measurement systems, and the use of new technologies and systems in the search for base materials contribute to the fact that we have more knowledge of the formation, behavior and effects of the sorts. In this study, 1995 Dinar Earthquake effects on Egirdir Lake hydrodynamic regime was investigated by numerical modelling approach.

  3. Simulations of the influence of lake area on local temperature with the COSMO NWP model

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Bartůňková, Kristýna; Sokol, Zbyněk; Pop, Lukáš

    147-148, 1-15 Oct (2014), s. 51-67 ISSN 0169-8095 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA13-34856S; GA TA ČR TA01020592 Institutional support: RVO:68378289 Keywords : ALAKE * COSMO NWP model * modeling * microclimate * lake Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 2.844, year: 2014 http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169809514002038

  4. Modeling the acid-base chemistry of organic solutes in Adirondack, New York, lakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Driscoll, Charles T.; Lehtinen, Michael D.; Sullivan, Timothy J.

    1994-02-01

    Data from the large and diverse Adirondack Lake Survey were used to calibrate four simple organic acid analog models in an effort to quantify the influence of naturally occurring organic acids on lake water pH and acid-neutralizing capacity (ANC). The organic acid analog models were calibrated to observations of pH, dissolved organic carbon (DOC), and organic anion (An-) concentrations from a reduced data set representing 1128 individual lake samples, expressed as 41 observations of mean pH, in intervals of 0.1 pH units from pH 3.9 to 7.0. Of the four organic analog approaches examined, including the Oliver et al. (1983) model, as well as monoprotic, diprotic, and triprotic representations, the triprotic analog model yielded the best fit (r2 = 0.92) to the observed data. Moreover, the triprotic model was qualitatively consistent with observed patterns of change in organic solute charge density as a function of pH. A low calibrated value for the first H+ dissociation constant (pKal = 2.62) and the observation that organic anion concentrations were significant even at very low pH (acidic functional groups. Inclusion of organic acidity in model calculations resulted in good agreement between measured and predicted values of lake water pH and ANC. Assessments to project the response of surface waters to future changes in atmospheric deposition, through the use of acidification models, will need to include representations of organic acids in model structure to make accurate predictions of pH and ANC.

  5. Examining Ecological and Ecosystem Level Impacts of Aquatic Invasive Species in Lake Michigan Using An Ecosystem Productivity Model, LM-Eco

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ecological and ecosystem-level impacts of aquatic invasive species in Lake Michigan were examined using the Lake Michigan Ecosystem Model (LM-Eco). The LM-Eco model includes a detailed description of trophic levels and their interactions within the lower food web of Lake Michiga...

  6. Modeling aluminum-silicon chemistries and application to Australian acidic playa lakes as analogues for Mars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marion, G. M.; Crowley, J. K.; Thomson, B. J.; Kargel, J. S.; Bridges, N. T.; Hook, S. J.; Baldridge, A.; Brown, A. J.; Ribeiro da Luz, B.; de Souza Filho, C. R.

    2009-06-01

    Recent Mars missions have stimulated considerable thinking about the surficial geochemical evolution of Mars. Among the major relevant findings are the presence in Meridiani Planum sediments of the mineral jarosite (a ferric sulfate salt) and related minerals that require formation from an acid-salt brine and oxidizing environment. Similar mineralogies have been observed in acidic saline lake sediments in Western Australia (WA), and these lakes have been proposed as analogues for acidic sedimentary environments on Mars. The prior version of the equilibrium chemical thermodynamic FREZCHEM model lacked Al and Si chemistries that are needed to appropriately model acidic aqueous geochemistries on Earth and Mars. The objectives of this work were to (1) add Al and Si chemistries to the FREZCHEM model, (2) extend these chemistries to low temperatures (enthalpy data. New aluminum and silicon parameterizations added 12 new aluminum/silicon minerals to this Na-K-Mg-Ca-Fe(II)-Fe(III)-Al-H-Cl-Br-SO 4-NO 3-OH-HCO 3-CO 3-CO 2-O 2-CH 4-Si-H 2O system that now contain 95 solid phases. There were similarities, differences, and uncertainties between Australian acidic, saline playa lakes and waters that likely led to the Burns formation salt accumulations on Mars. Both systems are similar in that they are dominated by (1) acidic, saline ground waters and sediments, (2) Ca and/or Mg sulfates, and (3) iron precipitates such as jarosite and hematite. Differences include: (1) the dominance of NaCl in many WA lakes, versus the dominance of Fe-Mg-Ca-SO 4 in Meridiani Planum, (2) excessively low K + concentrations in Meridiani Planum due to jarosite precipitation, (3) higher acid production in the presence of high iron concentrations in Meridiani Planum, and probably lower rates of acid neutralization and hence, higher acidities on Mars owing to colder temperatures, and (4) lateral salt patterns in WA lakes. The WA playa lakes display significant lateral variations in mineralogy and water

  7. Acidification in Three Lake District Tarns: Historical Iong term trends and modelled future behaviour under changing sulphate and nitrate deposition

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. G. Whitchead

    1997-01-01

    Full Text Available Three upland Lake District Tarns, Scoat, Greendale and Burnmoor, have been evaluated using MAGIC (Model of Acidification of Groundwater In Catchments to reconstruct past, present and future chemical behaviour. The modelled historical changes in acidity are compared with palaeoecological estimation of pH to demonstrate model validity. Chemistry as simulated for all anions and cations and two of the three lakes are shown to have undergone significant acidification. The effects of changing atmospheric pollution levels on lake chemistry is evaluated and 80-90% sulphur reduction levels are required to achieve zero alkalinity. The impacts of increased nitrogen deposition are assessed and are shown to further delay reversibility.

  8. Cholera in the Lake Kivu region (DRC): Integrating remote sensing and spatially explicit epidemiological modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Finger, Flavio; Knox, Allyn; Bertuzzo, Enrico; Mari, Lorenzo; Bompangue, Didier; Gatto, Marino; Rodriguez-Iturbe, Ignacio; Rinaldo, Andrea

    2014-07-01

    Mathematical models of cholera dynamics can not only help in identifying environmental drivers and processes that influence disease transmission, but may also represent valuable tools for the prediction of the epidemiological patterns in time and space as well as for the allocation of health care resources. Cholera outbreaks have been reported in the Democratic Republic of the Congo since the 1970s. They have been ravaging the shore of Lake Kivu in the east of the country repeatedly during the last decades. Here we employ a spatially explicit, inhomogeneous Markov chain model to describe cholera incidence in eight health zones on the shore of the lake. Remotely sensed data sets of chlorophyll a concentration in the lake, precipitation and indices of global climate anomalies are used as environmental drivers in addition to baseline seasonality. The effect of human mobility is also modelled mechanistically. We test several models on a multiyear data set of reported cholera cases. The best fourteen models, accounting for different environmental drivers, and selected using the Akaike information criterion, are formally compared via proper cross validation. Among these, the one accounting for seasonality, El Niño Southern Oscillation, precipitation and human mobility outperforms the others in cross validation. Some drivers (such as human mobility and rainfall) are retained only by a few models, possibly indicating that the mechanisms through which they influence cholera dynamics in the area will have to be investigated further.

  9. On applied state estimation and observation theory to simulation modelling of Prespa-Ohrid Lakes system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kolemishevska-Gugulovska, Tanja; Dimirovski, Georgi; Gough, N.E.

    1997-01-01

    In the south-west of the Republic of Macedonia, on the cross boundary area with Republic of Albania and Republic of Greece, Prespa-Ohrid hydrologic region is located. To this region belong Prespa and Ohrid valleys, on the bottom of which the lakes of Prespa and Ohrid reside. Due to the fact that there is no surface hydrologic link and that they are separated by high mountain Galichica, both valleys and lakes constitute almost mutually autonomous hydrologic entities. This paper presents a study on the hydrologic cycle of Prespa Lake basin for the purpose of developing and identifying a simulation model for the long term dynamics of the water level. The actual simulation modelling technique makes use of available apriori knowledge and available recorder or observed data on phenomena involving the whole cycle from precipitation to evaporation and evapotranspiration in Prespa basin. Also, a modelling account for the functional impact due to strong interaction with Ohrid basin, is included. The resulting simulation model is a set of discrete-time state equation, derived on the grounds of the conceptual model of interconnected multiple tanks and of discrete-time observation (output) equation. The dynamic structure of Kalman filter for both linear and non-linear modelling case is derived and a discussion on applicability and further research is given. (author)

  10. Specific activity and concentration model applied to 137Cs movement in a eutrophic lake

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vanderploeg, H.A.; Booth, R.S.; Clark, F.H.

    1976-01-01

    A linear systems-analysis model which simulates time-dependent dynamics of specific activity and concentration of radiocesium in lake ecosystems was applied to a shallow, eutrophic lake that had received a pulse input of 137 Cs. Best estimates of transfer coefficients for abiotic compartments (sediment, interstitial water and lake water) and the macrophyte compartment which controlled the mass balance of cesium in water were determined by ''tuning'' our initial estimates of the transfer coefficients to observed data on 137 Cs concentrations and contents of these compartments. In most cases, the optimized transfer coefficients for the abiotic compartments were not greatly different from our independently derived initial estimates, and the simulations for optimized coefficients were close to those based on initial estimates. The 137 Cs concentrations in water as predicted by the optimized transfer coefficients were then used to calculate 137 Cs kinetics in biota other than macrophytes. In general, model simulations were close to concentrations observed in the biota. The agreement between 137 Cs concentrations and simulations in bottom invertebrates supported our assumption that bottom sediments are not a major source of Cs to the biota. Our specific activity and concentration model was compared to the radionuclide content model, the model used in terrestrial ecosystems. For biotic components of aquatic ecosystems, values of α/sub ij/, the transfer coefficients of our model, are easily estimated from turnover rates of radiocesium in individual organisms in the laboratory

  11. Comparing past accumulation rate reconstructions in East Antarctic ice cores using 10Be, water isotopes and CMIP5-PMIP3 models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Cauquoin

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Ice cores are exceptional archives which allow us to reconstruct a wealth of climatic parameters as well as past atmospheric composition over the last 800 kyr in Antarctica. Inferring the variations in past accumulation rate in polar regions is essential both for documenting past climate and for ice core chronology. On the East Antarctic Plateau, the accumulation rate is so small that annual layers cannot be identified and accumulation rate is mainly deduced from the water isotopic composition assuming constant temporal relationships between temperature, water isotopic composition and accumulation rate. Such an assumption leads to large uncertainties on the reconstructed past accumulation rate. Here, we use high-resolution beryllium-10 (10Be as an alternative tool for inferring past accumulation rate for the EPICA Dome C ice core, in East Antarctica. We present a high-resolution 10Be record covering a full climatic cycle over the period 269 to 355 ka from Marine Isotope Stage (MIS 9 to 10, including a period warmer than pre-industrial (MIS 9.3 optimum. After correcting 10Be for the estimated effect of the palaeomagnetic field, we deduce that the 10Be reconstruction is in reasonably good agreement with EDC3 values for the full cycle except for the period warmer than present. For the latter, the accumulation is up to 13% larger (4.46 cm ie yr−1 instead of 3.95. This result is in agreement with the studies suggesting an underestimation of the deuterium-based accumulation for the optimum of the Holocene (Parrenin et al. 2007a. Using the relationship between accumulation rate and surface temperature from the saturation vapour relationship, the 10Be-based accumulation rate reconstruction suggests that the temperature increase between the MIS 9.3 optimum and present day may be 2.4 K warmer than estimated by the water isotopes reconstruction. We compare these reconstructions to the available model results from CMIP5-PMIP3 for a glacial and an

  12. Glacial morphology and depositional sequences of the Antarctic Continental Shelf

    Science.gov (United States)

    ten Brink, Uri S.; Schneider, Christopher

    1995-01-01

    Proposes a simple model for the unusual depositional sequences and morphology of the Antarctic continental shelf. It considers the regional stratal geometry and the reversed morphology to be principally the results of time-integrated effects of glacial erosion and sedimentation related to the location of the ice grounding line. The model offers several guidelines for stratigraphic interpretation of the Antarctic shelf and a Northern Hemisphere shelf, both of which were subject to many glacial advances and retreats. -Authors

  13. Modelling the Loktak Lake Basin to Assess Human Impact on Water Resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eliza, K.

    2015-12-01

    Loktak Lake is an internationally important, Ramsar designated, fresh water wetland system in the state of Manipur, India. The lake was also listed under Montreux Record on account of the ecological modifications that the lake system has witnessed over time. A characteristic feature of this lake is the extensive occurrence of coalesced, naturally or otherwise, vegetative masses floating over it. A contiguous 40 km2 area of Phumdis, as these vegetative masses are locally referred to, also constitutes the only natural home of the endemic and endangered species of Manipur's brow-antlered deer popularly known as Sangai. Appropriately notified as Keibul Lamjao National Park by Government of India, this natural feature is known to be the world's largest floating park. Water quality and sediment deposition on account of soil erosion in its catchments are some of the emerging concerns along with a reported enhanced frequency and duration of flooding of the shore areas, reduced fish catch within a visibly deteriorated overall natural ecosystem. Disturbances of watershed processes, command area management practices, ineffective as indeed largely absent, waste management practices and management interventions linked to the Loktak Hydroelectric Project are often cited as the principal triggers that are seen to be responsible for the damage. An effective management protocol for the Lake requires a rigorous understanding of its hydrobiology and eco-hydrodynamics. The present study is carried out to establish such a characterization of the various rivers systems draining directly into the Lake using MIKE SHE, MIKE 11 HD and MIKE 11 ECO Lab modelling platforms. Water quality modelling was limited to dissolved oxygen (DO), biological oxygen demand (BOD) and water temperature. Model calibration was done using the available measured water quality data. The derived results were then investigated for causal correlation with anthropogenic influences to assess human impact on water

  14. A coupled regolith-lake development model applied to the Forsmark site

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brydsten, Lars; Stroemgren, Maarten (Umeaa Univ., Umeaa (Sweden))

    2010-11-15

    The Quaternary geology at the Forsmark site has been characterized using both a map of Quaternary deposits and a regolith depth model (RDM) that show the stratigraphy and thickness of different deposits. Regolith refers to all the unconsolidated deposits overlying the bedrock. The surface geology and regolith depth are important parameters for hydrogeological and geochemical modelling and for the overall understanding of the area. The safety assessment analysis should focus on processes involved during a period of 120,000 years, which includes a full glacial cycle; however, the investigations within the site description model do not cover the temporal change of the regolith, a limitation that does not fulfil the requirements for the safety assessment. To this end, this study constructs a model that can predict the surface geology, stratigraphy, and thickness of different strata at any time during a glacial cycle and applies this model to the Forsmark site. The Weichselian ice sheet covered the study area until around 9500 BC. The deglaciation revealed a marine landscape with bedrock, till and glacial clay. For the safety assessment, the most important unconsolidated strata are clay or silt: these small grains can bind nuclear elements more easily than coarser sediment particles. Thick layers of clay can be found where post-glacial clay settled on top of glacial clay, especially where the middle-aged erosion of postglacial clay is missing and where there is an uninterrupted sequence of accumulation of finegrained particles. Such areas could be found in deep marine basins that later become lakes when raised into a supra-marine position. The coupled regolith-lake development model (RLDM) predicts the course of events described above during an interglacial, especially the dynamics of the clay and silt particles. The RLDM is divided into two modules: a marine module that predicts the sediment dynamics caused by wind waves and a lake module that predicts the lake infill

  15. A coupled regolith-lake development model applied to the Forsmark site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brydsten, Lars; Stroemgren, Maarten

    2010-11-01

    The Quaternary geology at the Forsmark site has been characterized using both a map of Quaternary deposits and a regolith depth model (RDM) that show the stratigraphy and thickness of different deposits. Regolith refers to all the unconsolidated deposits overlying the bedrock. The surface geology and regolith depth are important parameters for hydrogeological and geochemical modelling and for the overall understanding of the area. The safety assessment analysis should focus on processes involved during a period of 120,000 years, which includes a full glacial cycle; however, the investigations within the site description model do not cover the temporal change of the regolith, a limitation that does not fulfil the requirements for the safety assessment. To this end, this study constructs a model that can predict the surface geology, stratigraphy, and thickness of different strata at any time during a glacial cycle and applies this model to the Forsmark site. The Weichselian ice sheet covered the study area until around 9500 BC. The deglaciation revealed a marine landscape with bedrock, till and glacial clay. For the safety assessment, the most important unconsolidated strata are clay or silt: these small grains can bind nuclear elements more easily than coarser sediment particles. Thick layers of clay can be found where post-glacial clay settled on top of glacial clay, especially where the middle-aged erosion of postglacial clay is missing and where there is an uninterrupted sequence of accumulation of finegrained particles. Such areas could be found in deep marine basins that later become lakes when raised into a supra-marine position. The coupled regolith-lake development model (RLDM) predicts the course of events described above during an interglacial, especially the dynamics of the clay and silt particles. The RLDM is divided into two modules: a marine module that predicts the sediment dynamics caused by wind waves and a lake module that predicts the lake infill

  16. On the use of high-throughput sequencing for the study of cyanobacterial diversity in Antarctic aquatic mats.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pessi, Igor Stelmach; Maalouf, Pedro De Carvalho; Laughinghouse, Haywood Dail; Baurain, Denis; Wilmotte, Annick

    2016-06-01

    The study of Antarctic cyanobacterial diversity has been mostly limited to morphological identification and traditional molecular techniques. High-throughput sequencing (HTS) allows a much better understanding of microbial distribution in the environment, but its application is hampered by several methodological and analytical challenges. In this work, we explored the use of HTS as a tool for the study of cyanobacterial diversity in Antarctic aquatic mats. Our results highlight the importance of using artificial communities to validate the parameters of the bioinformatics procedure used to analyze natural communities, since pipeline-dependent biases had a strong effect on the observed community structures. Analysis of microbial mats from five Antarctic lakes and an aquatic biofilm from the Sub-Antarctic showed that HTS is a valuable tool for the assessment of cyanobacterial diversity. The majority of the operational taxonomic units retrieved were related to filamentous taxa such as Leptolyngbya and Phormidium, which are common genera in Antarctic lacustrine microbial mats. However, other phylotypes related to different taxa such as Geitlerinema, Pseudanabaena, Synechococcus, Chamaesiphon, Calothrix, and Coleodesmium were also found. Results revealed a much higher diversity than what had been reported using traditional methods and also highlighted remarkable differences between the cyanobacterial communities of the studied lakes. The aquatic biofilm from the Sub-Antarctic had a distinct cyanobacterial community from the Antarctic lakes, which in turn displayed a salinity-dependent community structure at the phylotype level. © 2016 Phycological Society of America.

  17. A modified QWASI model for fate and transport modeling of mercury between the water-ice-sediment in Lake Ulansuhai.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yu; Li, Changyou; Anderson, Bruce; Zhang, Sheng; Shi, Xiaohong; Zhao, Shengnan

    2017-06-01

    Mercury contamination from industrial and agricultural drainage into lakes and rivers is a growing concern in Northern China. Lake Ulansuhai, located in Hetao irrigation district in Inner Mongolia, is the only sink for the all industrial and agricultural drainage and sole outlet for this district to the Yellow River, which is one of the main source of drinking water for the numerous cities and towns downstream. Because Ulansuahi is ice-covered during winter, the QWASI model was modified by adding an ice equation to get a more accurate understanding of the fate and transport of mercury within the lake. Both laboratory and field tests were carried out during the ice growth period. The aquivalence and mass balance approaches were used to develop the modified QWASI + ice model. The margins of error between the modelled and the measured average concentrations of Hg in ice, water, and sediment were 30%, 26.2%, and 19.8% respectively. These results suggest that the new QWASI + ice model could be used to more accurately represent the fate and transport of mercury in the seasonally ice-covered lakes, during the ice growth period. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Regional genetic diversity patterns in Antarctic hairgrass (Deschampsia antartica Desv.)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van de Wouw, M.J.; Van Dijk, P.J.; Huiskes, A.H.L.

    2008-01-01

    Aim To determine patterns in diversity of a major Antarctic plant species, including relationships of Antarctic populations with those outside the Antarctic zone. Location Antarctic Peninsula, Maritime Antarctica, sub-Antarctic islands, Falkland Islands and South America. Methods Amplified fragment

  19. Assessing Vulnerability of Lake Erie Landscapes to Soil Erosion: Modelled and Measured Approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joosse, P.; Laamrani, A.; Feisthauer, N.; Li, S.

    2017-12-01

    Loss of soil from agricultural landscapes to Lake Erie via water erosion is a key transport mechanism for phosphorus bound to soil particles. Agriculture is the dominant land use in the Canadian side of the Lake Erie basin with approximately 75% of the 2.3 million hectares under crop or livestock production. The variable geography and diversity of agricultural production systems and management practices makes estimating risk of soil erosion from agricultural landscapes in the Canadian Lake Erie basin challenging. Risk of soil erosion depends on a combination of factors including the extent to which soil remains bare, which differs with crop type and management. Two different approaches of estimating the vulnerability of landscapes to soil erosion will be compared among Soil Landscapes of Canada in the Lake Erie basin: a modelling approach incorporating farm census and soil survey data, represented by the 2011 Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada Agri-Environmental Indicator for Soil Erosion Risk; and, a measured approach using remotely sensed data that quantifies the magnitude of bare and covered soil across the basin. Results from both approaches will be compared by scaling the national level (1:1 million) Soil Erosion Risk Indicator and the remotely sensed data (30x30 m resolution) to the quaternary watershed level.

  20. Multiphase modeling of nitrate photochemistry in the quasi-liquid layer (QLL: implications for NOx release from the Arctic and coastal Antarctic snowpack

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Saiz-Lopez

    2008-08-01

    Full Text Available We utilize a multiphase model, CON-AIR (Condensed Phase to Air Transfer Model, to show that the photochemistry of nitrate (NO3− in and on ice and snow surfaces, specifically the quasi-liquid layer (QLL, can account for NOx volume fluxes, concentrations, and [NO]/[NO2] (γ=[NO]/[NO2] measured just above the Arctic and coastal Antarctic snowpack. Maximum gas phase NOx volume fluxes, concentrations and γ simulated for spring and summer range from 5.0×104 to 6.4×105 molecules cm−3 s−1, 5.7×108 to 4.8×109 molecules cm−3, and ~0.8 to 2.2, respectively, which are comparable to gas phase NOx volume fluxes, concentrations and γ measured in the field. The model incorporates the appropriate actinic solar spectrum, thereby properly weighting the different rates of photolysis of NO3− and NO2−. This is important since the immediate precursor for NO, for example, NO2−, absorbs at wavelengths longer than nitrate itself. Finally, one-dimensional model simulations indicate that both gas phase boundary layer NO and NO2 exhibit a negative concentration gradient as a function of height although [NO]/[NO2] are approximately constant. This gradient is primarily attributed to gas phase reactions of NOx with halogens oxides (i.e. as BrO and IO, HOx, and hydrocarbons, such as CH3O2.

  1. Assessing anthropogenic impact on boreal lakes with historical fish species distribution data and hydrogeochemical modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valinia, Salar; Englund, Göran; Moldan, Filip; Futter, Martyn N; Köhler, Stephan J; Bishop, Kevin; Fölster, Jens

    2014-09-01

    Quantifying the effects of human activity on the natural environment is dependent on credible estimates of reference conditions to define the state of the environment before the onset of adverse human impacts. In Europe, emission controls that aimed at restoring ecological status were based on hindcasts from process-based models or paleolimnological reconstructions. For instance, 1860 is used in Europe as the target for restoration from acidification concerning biological and chemical parameters. A more practical problem is that the historical states of ecosystems and their function cannot be observed directly. Therefore, we (i) compare estimates of acidification based on long-term observations of roach (Rutilus rutilus) populations with hindcast pH from the hydrogeochemical model MAGIC; (ii) discuss policy implications and possible scope for use of long-term archival data for assessing human impacts on the natural environment and (iii) present a novel conceptual model for interpreting the importance of physico-chemical and ecological deviations from reference conditions. Of the 85 lakes studied, 78 were coherently classified by both methods. In 1980, 28 lakes were classified as acidified with the MAGIC model, however, roach was present in 14 of these. In 2010, MAGIC predicted chemical recovery in 50% of the lakes, however roach only recolonized in five lakes after 1990, showing a lag between chemical and biological recovery. Our study is the first study of its kind to use long-term archival biological data in concert with hydrogeochemical modeling for regional assessments of anthropogenic acidification. Based on our results, we show how the conceptual model can be used to understand and prioritize management of physico-chemical and ecological effects of anthropogenic stressors on surface water quality. © 2014 The Authors Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  2. Efficient debridement of necrotic wounds using proteolytic enzymes derived from Antarctic krill: a double-blind, placebo-controlled study in a standardized animal wound model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mekkes, J. R.; Le Poole, I. C.; Das, P. K.; Bos, J. D.; Westerhof, W.

    1998-01-01

    Wound healing can be accelerated by removing necrotic tissue. Various methods of wound debridement have been developed, including enzymatic debridement. Recently potent proteolytic enzymes were isolated from the intestine of Euphausia superba (Antarctic krill) that might be useful for degrading

  3. Validating an erosion model using the environmental radionuclide 210Pb in the Lake Wollumboola catchment, southwestern NSW, Australia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Simms, A.; Woodroffe, C.; Jones, B.G.; Heijnis, H.; Harrison, J.; Brooke, B.

    2005-01-01

    Soil erosion is a key limitation to achieving sustainable land use and effective soil management, and is the major source of sediment to Australian water bodies resulting in degradation of water quality. Sediment delivery is an important constraint on the sustainable management of coastal lakes along the south coast of New South Wales. Assessment and mitigation of sediment input is a major issue for the sustainable management of water bodies such as coastal lakes and soil erosion caused by rainfall and runoff is of particular concern. In this paper we examine the application of 210 Pb analyses of sediment samples to test the extent to which a modified version of the Universal Soil Loss Equation for Australian conditions (OxMUSCLE) is valid. The model is applied to Lake Wollumboola to estimate sediment yield from the catchment into its terminal lake, which is a saline coastal lake 172 km south of Sydney. 14 refs., 1 fig., 1 tab

  4. Phosphorus Export Model Development in a Terminal Lake Basin using Concentration-Streamflow Relationship

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeannotte, T.; Mahmood, T. H.; Matheney, R.; Hou, X.

    2017-12-01

    Nutrient export to streams and lakes by anthropogenic activities can lead to eutrophication and degradation of surface water quality. In Devils Lake, ND, the only terminal lake in the Northern Great Plains, the algae boom is of great concern due to the recent increase in streamflow and consequent rise in phosphorus (P) export from prairie agricultural fields. However, to date, very few studies explored the concentration (c) -streamflow (q) relationship in the headwater catchments of the Devils Lake basin. A robust watershed-scale quantitative framework would aid understanding of the c-q relationship, simulating P concentration and load. In this study, we utilize c-q relationships to develop a simple model to estimate phosphorus concentration and export from two headwater catchments of different size (Mauvais Coulee: 1032 km2 and Trib 3: 160 km2) draining to Devils Lake. Our goal is to link the phosphorus export model with a physically based hydrologic model to identify major drivers of phosphorus export. USGS provided the streamflow measurements, and we collected water samples (filtered and unfiltered) three times daily during the spring snowmelt season (March 31, 2017- April 12, 2017) at the outlets of both headwater catchments. Our results indicate that most P is dissolved and very little is particulate, suggesting little export of fine-grained sediment from agricultural fields. Our preliminary analyses in the Mauvais Coulee catchment show a chemostatic c-q relationship in the rising limb of the hydrograph, while the recession limb shows a linear and positive c-q relationship. The poor correlation in the rising limb of the hydrograph suggests intense flushing of P by spring snowmelt runoff. Flushing then continues in the recession limb of the hydrograph, but at a more constant rate. The estimated total P load for the Mauvais Coulee basin is 193 kg/km2, consistent with other catchments of similar size across the Red River of the North basin to the east. We expect

  5. An agent-based model for water management and planning in the Lake Naivasha basin, Kenya

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Oel, Pieter; Mulatu, Dawit; Odongo, Vincent; Onyando, Japheth; Becht, Robert; van der Veen, Anne

    2013-04-01

    A variety of human and natural processes influence the ecological and economic state of the Lake Naivasha basin. The ecological wealth and recent economic developments in the area are strongly connected to Lake Naivasha which supports a rich variety of flora, mammal and bird species. Many human activities depend on clean freshwater from the lake whereas recently the freshwater availability of good quality is seriously influenced by water abstractions and the use of fertilizers in agriculture. Management alternatives include those aiming at limiting water abstractions and fertilizer use. A possible way to achieve reduced use of water and fertilizers is the introduction of Payment for Environmental Services (PES) schemes. As the Lake Naivasha basin and its population have experienced increasing pressures various disputes and disagreements have arisen about the processes responsible for the problems experienced, and the effectively of management alternatives. Beside conflicts of interest and disagreements on responsibilities there are serious factual disagreements. To share scientific knowledge on the effects of the socio-ecological system processes on the Lake Naivasha basin, tools may be used that expose information at temporal and spatial scales that are meaningful to stakeholders. In this study we use a spatially-explicit agent-based modelling (ABM) approach to depict the interactions between socio-economic and natural subsystems for supporting a more sustainable governance of the river basin resources. Agents consider alternative livelihood strategies and decide to go for the one they perceive as likely to be most profitable. Agents may predict and sense the availability of resources and also can observe economic performance achieved by neighbouring agents. Results are presented at the basin and subbasin level to provide relevant knowledge to Water Resources Users Associations which are important collective forums for water management through which PES schemes

  6. Antarctic aerosols - A review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shaw, Glenn E.

    1988-02-01

    Tropospheric aerosols with the diameter range of half a micron reside in the atmosphere for tens of days and teleconnect Antarctica with other regions by transport that reaches planetary scales of distances; thus, the aerosol on the Antarctic ice represents 'memory modules' of events that took place at regions separated from Antarctica by tens of thousands of kilometers. In terms of aerosol mass, the aerosol species include insoluble crustal products (less than 5 percent), transported sea-salt residues (highly variable but averaging about 10 percent), Ni-rich meteoric material, and anomalously enriched material with an unknown origin. Most (70-90 percent by mass) of the aerosol over the Antarctic ice shield, however, is the 'natural acid sulfate aerosol', apparently deriving from biological processes taking place in the surrounding oceans.

  7. Antarctic Meteorite Newsletter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindstrom, Marilyn

    2000-01-01

    This newsletter contains something for everyone! It lists classifications of about 440 meteorites mostly from the 1997 and 1998 ANSMET (Antarctic Search for Meteorites) seasons. It also gives descriptions of about 45 meteorites of special petrologic type. These include 1 iron, 17 chondrites (7 CC, 1 EC, 9 OC) and 27 achondrites (25 HED, UR). Most notable are an acapoloite (GRA98028) and an olivine diogenite (GRA98108).

  8. Comparison of three nonlinear models to describe long-term tag shedding by lake trout

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fabrizio, Mary C.; Swanson, Bruce L.; Schram, Stephen T.; Hoff, Michael H.

    1996-01-01

    We estimated long-term tag-shedding rates for lake trout Salvelinus namaycush using two existing models and a model we developed to account for the observed permanence of some tags. Because tag design changed over the course of the study, we examined tag-shedding rates for three types of numbered anchor tags (Floy tags FD-67, FD-67C, and FD-68BC) and an unprinted anchor tag (FD-67F). Lake trout from the Gull Island Shoal region, Lake Superior, were double-tagged, and subsequent recaptures were monitored in annual surveys conducted from 1974 to 1992. We modeled tag-shedding rates, using time at liberty and probabilities of tag shedding estimated from fish released in 1974 and 1978–1983 and later recaptured. Long-term shedding of numbered anchor tags in lake trout was best described by a nonlinear model with two parameters: an instantaneous tag-shedding rate and a constant representing the proportion of tags that were never shed. Although our estimates of annual shedding rates varied with tag type (0.300 for FD-67, 0.441 for FD-67C, and 0.656 for FD-68BC), differences were not significant. About 36% of tags remained permanently affixed to the fish. Of the numbered tags that were shed (about 64%), two mechanisms contributed to tag loss: disintegration and dislodgment. Tags from about 11% of recaptured fish had disintegrated, but most tags were dislodged. Unprinted tags were shed at a significant but low rate immediately after release, but the long-term, annual shedding rate of these tags was only 0.013. Compared with unprinted tags, numbered tags dislodged at higher annual rates; we hypothesized that this was due to the greater frictional drag associated with the larger cross-sectional area of numbered tags.

  9. Predictive models of benthic invertebrate methylmercury in Ontario and Quebec lakes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rennie, M.D.; Collins, N.C.; Purchase, C.F. [Toronto Univ., ON (Canada). Dept. of Biology; Tremblay, A. [Hydro-Quebec, Montreal, PQ (Canada)

    2005-12-01

    In both North America and Europe, high levels of mercury have been reported in lakes that do not receive obvious point-source mercury inputs. Concern over high contaminant levels in waterfowl and fish have prompted several government-issued advisories on safe levels of fish and wildlife intake for humans. Although the primary source of mercury in pristine lakes is directly through atmospheric deposition or indirectly via terrestrial runoff, there can be large variations in mercury concentrations in organisms in neighbouring lakes. Therefore, factors other than atmospheric deposition must influence bioavailability and accumulation of mercury in aquatic organisms. For that reason, multivariate analyses on benthic invertebrate methylmercury concentrations and water chemistry from 12 Quebec water bodies were used to construct simple, predictive models of benthic invertebrate methylmercury in 23 lakes in Ontario and Quebec. The study showed that the primary means of mercury accumulation for organisms in higher trophic positions is dietary through the assimilation of organic forms of mercury, principally methylmercury. The data from 12 Quebec water bodies, revealed that benthic invertebrates in reservoirs have higher methylmercury than those in natural lakes, and methylmercury is generally higher in predatory invertebrates. Reservoir age was found to correlate with fish, benthic invertebrate methylmercury, and also with lake chemistry parameters such as pH and dissolved organic carbon (DOC). The objective of the study was to determine the appropriate level of taxonomic or functional resolution for generating benthic invertebrate methylmercury models, and to identify which environmental variables correlate most with benthic invertebrate methylmercury. Empirical models using these correlations were constructed and their predicted efficiency was tested by cross-validation. In addition, the effect of exposure to fish digestive enzymes on invertebrate methylmercury was

  10. Critical Loads of Acid Deposition for Wilderness Lakes in the Sierra Nevada (California) Estimated by the Steady-State Water Chemistry Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glenn D. Shaw; Ricardo Cisneros; Donald Schweizer; James O. Sickman; Mark E. Fenn

    2014-01-01

    Major ion chemistry (2000-2009) from 208 lakes (342 sample dates and 600 samples) in class I and II wilderness areas of the Sierra Nevada was used in the Steady-State Water Chemistry (SSWC) model to estimate critical loads for acid deposition and investigate the current vulnerability of high elevation lakes to acid deposition. The majority of the lakes were dilute (...

  11. Uncertainties in the Antarctic Ice Sheet Contribution to Sea Level Rise: Exploration of Model Response to Errors in Climate Forcing, Boundary Conditions, and Internal Parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schlegel, N.; Seroussi, H. L.; Boening, C.; Larour, E. Y.; Limonadi, D.; Schodlok, M.; Watkins, M. M.

    2017-12-01

    The Jet Propulsion Laboratory-University of California at Irvine Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM) is a thermo-mechanical 2D/3D parallelized finite element software used to physically model the continental-scale flow of ice at high resolutions. Embedded into ISSM are uncertainty quantification (UQ) tools, based on the Design Analysis Kit for Optimization and Terascale Applications (DAKOTA) software. ISSM-DAKOTA offers various UQ methods for the investigation of how errors in model input impact uncertainty in simulation results. We utilize these tools to regionally sample model input and key parameters, based on specified bounds of uncertainty, and run a suite of continental-scale 100-year ISSM forward simulations of the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Resulting diagnostics (e.g., spread in local mass flux and regional mass balance) inform our conclusion about which parameters and/or forcing has the greatest impact on century-scale model simulations of ice sheet evolution. The results allow us to prioritize the key datasets and measurements that are critical for the minimization of ice sheet model uncertainty. Overall, we find that Antartica's total sea level contribution is strongly affected by grounding line retreat, which is driven by the magnitude of ice shelf basal melt rates and by errors in bedrock topography. In addition, results suggest that after 100 years of simulation, Thwaites glacier is the most significant source of model uncertainty, and its drainage basin has the largest potential for future sea level contribution. This work is performed at and supported by the California Institute of Technology's Jet Propulsion Laboratory. Supercomputing time is also supported through a contract with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Cryosphere program.

  12. Geochemical and Thermodinamic Modeling of Segara Anak Lake and the 2009 Eruption of Rinjani Volcano, Lombok, Indonesia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Akhmad Solikhin

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available DOI: 10.17014/ijog.v5i4.106Rinjani is the second highest volcano in Indonesia with an elevation of 3726 m above sea level. The steep and highest cone of Rinjani consists mainly of loose pyroclastic ejecta and contains a crater with a few solfataras. The West of this cone is Segara Anak caldera. The western side of the caldera is occupied by a 230 m deep lake, covering an area of 11 km² and its volume was (before the 2009 eruption estimated 1.02 km3. This is probably the largest hot volcanic lake in the world.The lake water is neutral (pH: 7-8 and its chemistry dominated by chlorides and sulfates with a relatively high TDS (Total Dissolved Solids: 2640 mg/l. This unusual TDS as well as the lake surface temperatures (20 - 22°C well above ambient temperatures (14 - 15°C for this altitude, reflect a strong input of hydrothermal fluids. Numerous hot springs are located along the shore at the foot of Barujari volcanic cone. Bathymetric profiles show also several areas with columns of gas bubbles escaping from the lake floor indicating a significant discharge of CO gas into the lake. The mass and energy balance model of Rinjani Crater Lake produce total heat lost value on the average of 1700 MW. Most of the heating periods of the lake occurred when the heat released by the surface of the lake to the atmosphere was lower than the heat supplied from the hydrothermal system. Peaks of heat losses correspond to period of strong winds. Crater lake monitoring can provide a basic information about deep magmatic activity and surface processes that occur in the volcano. The monitoring also contributes to predict the next eruption in order to improve mitigation of volcanic eruption. Precursory signals of the May 2009 eruption can be seen from significant changes in the temperature and chemistry of some of the hot springs, the increase of Fe concentrations in spring #54, chemical plume of low pH and dissolved oxygen, acidification of Segara

  13. Structural Uncertainty in Antarctic sea ice simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schneider, D. P.

    2016-12-01

    The inability of the vast majority of historical climate model simulations to reproduce the observed increase in Antarctic sea ice has motivated many studies about the quality of the observational record, the role of natural variability versus forced changes, and the possibility of missing or inadequate forcings in the models (such as freshwater discharge from thinning ice shelves or an inadequate magnitude of stratospheric ozone depletion). In this presentation I will highlight another source of uncertainty that has received comparatively little attention: Structural uncertainty, that is, the systematic uncertainty in simulated sea ice trends that arises from model physics and mean-state biases. Using two large ensembles of experiments from the Community Earth System Model (CESM), I will show that the model is predisposed towards producing negative Antarctic sea ice trends during 1979-present, and that this outcome is not simply because the model's decadal variability is out-of-synch with that in nature. In the "Tropical Pacific Pacemaker" ensemble, in which observed tropical Pacific SST anomalies are prescribed, the model produces very realistic atmospheric circulation trends over the Southern Ocean, yet the sea ice trend is negative in every ensemble member. However, if the ensemble-mean trend (commonly interpreted as the forced response) is removed, some ensemble members show a sea ice increase that is very similar to the observed. While this results does confirm the important role of natural variability, it also suggests a strong bias in the forced response. I will discuss the reasons for this systematic bias and explore possible remedies. This an important problem to solve because projections of 21st -Century changes in the Antarctic climate system (including ice sheet surface mass balance changes and related changes in the sea level budget) have a strong dependence on the mean state of and changes in the Antarctic sea ice cover. This problem is not unique to

  14. AQUATOX coupled foodweb model for ecosystem risk assessment of Polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) in lake ecosystems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Lulu; Liu, Jingling

    2014-01-01

    The AQUATOX model considers the direct toxic effects of chemicals and their indirect effects through foodwebs. For this study, the AQUATOX model was applied to evaluating the ecological risk of Polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) in a highly anthropogenically disturbed lake-Baiyangdian Lake. Calibration and validation results indicated that the model can adequately describe the dynamics of 18 biological populations. Sensitivity analysis results suggested that the model is highly sensitive to temperature limitation. PBDEs risk estimate results demonstrate that estimated risk for natural ecosystems cannot be fully explained by single species toxicity data alone. The AQUATOX model could provide a good basis in ascertaining ecological protection levels of “chemicals of concern” for aquatic ecosystems. Therefore, AQUATOX can potentially be used to provide necessary information corresponding to early warning and rapid forecasting of pollutant transport and fate in the management of chemicals that put aquatic ecosystems at risk. - Highlights: • AQUATOX model incorporates direct toxic effects and indirect ecological effects. • Ecological risk of PBDEs was assessed by the AQUATOX model. • The model could help determine ecological threshold of “chemicals of concern”. - Capsule abstract: Application of the AQUATOX model to assess the direct and indirect ecological risk of PBDEs

  15. Determining ecoregional numeric nutrient criteria by stressor-response models in Yungui ecoregion lakes, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huo, Shouliang; Ma, Chunzi; Xi, Beidou; Tong, Zhonghua; He, Zhuoshi; Su, Jing; Wu, Fengchang

    2014-01-01

    The importance of developing numeric nutrient criteria has been recognized to protect the designated uses of water bodies from nutrient enrichment that is associated with broadly occurring levels of nitrogen/phosphorus pollution. The identification and estimation of stressor-response models in aquatic ecosystems has been shown to be useful in the determination of nutrient criteria. In this study, three methods based on stressor-response relationships were applied to determine nutrient criteria for Yungui ecoregion lakes with respect to total phosphorus (TP), total nitrogen (TN), and planktonic chlorophyll a (Chl a). Simple linear regression (SLR) models were established to provide an estimate of the relationship between a response variable and a stressor. Multiple linear regressions were used to simultaneously estimate the effect of TP and TN on Chl a. A morphoedaphic index (MEI) was applied to derive nutrient criteria using data from Yungui ecoregion lakes, which were considered as areas with less anthropogenic influences. Nutrient criteria, as determined by these three methods, showed broad agreement for all parameters. The ranges of numeric nutrient criteria for Yungui ecoregion lakes were determined as follows: TP 0.008-0.010 mg/L and TN 0.140-0.178 mg/L. The stressor-response analysis described will be of benefit to support countries in their numeric criteria development programs and to further the goal of reducing nitrogen/phosphorus pollution in China.

  16. Estimating Antarctic Geothermal Heat Flux using Gravity Inversion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vaughan, Alan P. M.; Kusznir, Nick J.; Ferraccioli, Fausto; Leat, Phil T.; Jordan, Tom A. R. M.; Purucker, Michael E.; Golynsky, A. V.; Sasha Rogozhina, Irina

    2013-04-01

    Geothermal heat flux (GHF) in Antarctica is very poorly known. We have determined (Vaughan et al. 2012) top basement heat-flow for Antarctica and adjacent rifted continental margins using gravity inversion mapping of crustal thickness and continental lithosphere thinning (Chappell & Kusznir 2008). Continental lithosphere thinning and post-breakup residual thicknesses of continental crust determined from gravity inversion have been used to predict the preservation of continental crustal radiogenic heat productivity and the transient lithosphere heat-flow contribution within thermally equilibrating rifted continental and oceanic lithosphere. The sensitivity of present-day Antarctic top basement heat-flow to initial continental radiogenic heat productivity, continental rift and margin breakup age has been examined. Knowing GHF distribution for East Antarctica and the Gamburtsev Subglacial Mountains (GSM) region in particular is critical because: 1) The GSM likely acted as key nucleation point for the East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS); 2) the region may contain the oldest ice of the EAIS - a prime target for future ice core drilling; 3) GHF is important to understand proposed ice accretion at the base of the EAIS in the GSM and its links to sub-ice hydrology (Bell et al. 2011). An integrated multi-dataset-based GHF model for East Antarctica is planned that will resolve the wide range of estimates previously published using single datasets. The new map and existing GHF distribution estimates available for Antarctica will be evaluated using direct ice temperature measurements obtained from deep ice cores, estimates of GHF derived from subglacial lakes, and a thermodynamic ice-sheet model of the Antarctic Ice Sheet driven by past climate reconstructions and each of analysed heat flow maps, as has recently been done for the Greenland region (Rogozhina et al. 2012). References Bell, R.E., Ferraccioli, F., Creyts, T.T., Braaten, D., Corr, H., Das, I., Damaske, D., Frearson, N

  17. Comprehensive analysis of an Antarctic bacterial community with the adaptability of growth at higher temperatures than those in Antarctica.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hosoi-Tanabe, Shoko; Zhang, Hongyan; Zhu, Daochen; Nagata, Shinichi; Ban, Syuhei; Imura, Satoshi

    2010-06-01

    To investigate the adaptability to higher temperatures of Antarctic microorganisms persisting in low temperature conditions for a long time, Antarctic lake samples were incubated in several selection media at 25 degrees C and 30 degrees C. The microorganisms did not grow at 30 degrees C; however, some of them grew at 25 degrees C, indicating that the bacteria in Antarctic have the ability to grow at a wide range of temperatures. Total DNA was extracted from these microorganisms and amplified using the bacteria-universal primers. The amplified fragments were cloned, and randomly selected 48 clones were sequenced. The sequenced clones showed high similarity to the alpha-subdivision of the Proteobacteria with specific affinity to the genus Agrobacterium, Caulobacter and Brevundimonas, the ss-subdivision of Proteobacteria with specific affinity to the genus Cupriavidus, and Bacillus of the phylum Firmicutes. These results showed the presence of universal genera, suggesting that the bacteria in the Antarctic lake were not specific to this environment.

  18. The Application of a Phosphorus Budget Model Estimating the Carrying Capacity of Kesikköprü Dam Lake

    OpenAIRE

    PULATSÜ, Serap

    2014-01-01

    The aim of this study was to estimate the carrying capacity of Kesikköprü Dam Lake, Ankara, where cage farms for the intensive culture of rainbow trout are located. For this purpose Dillon and Rigler's phosphorus budget model was applied in a series of steps and the carrying capacity of the lake was found to be 3335 tonnes per year. This estimated value was about 10 times higher than the present production level of the lake. It seems possible to orientate the fish culture in cages in...

  19. Modelling the physical multiphase interactions of HNO3 between snow and air on the Antarctic Plateau (Dome C and coast (Halley

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. G. Chan

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Emissions of nitrogen oxide (NOx  =  NO + NO2 from the photolysis of nitrate (NO3− in snow affect the oxidising capacity of the lower troposphere especially in remote regions of high latitudes with little pollution. Current air–snow exchange models are limited by poor understanding of processes and often require unphysical tuning parameters. Here, two multiphase models were developed from physically based parameterisations to describe the interaction of nitrate between the surface layer of the snowpack and the overlying atmosphere. The first model is similar to previous approaches and assumes that below a threshold temperature, To, the air–snow grain interface is pure ice and above To a disordered interface (DI emerges covering the entire grain surface. The second model assumes that air–ice interactions dominate over all temperatures below melting of ice and that any liquid present above the eutectic temperature is concentrated in micropockets. The models are used to predict the nitrate in surface snow constrained by year-round observations of mixing ratios of nitric acid in air at a cold site on the Antarctic Plateau (Dome C; 75°06′ S, 123°33′ E; 3233 m a.s.l. and at a relatively warm site on the Antarctic coast (Halley; 75°35′ S, 26°39′ E; 35 m a.s.l. The first model agrees reasonably well with observations at Dome C (Cv(RMSE  =  1.34 but performs poorly at Halley (Cv(RMSE  =  89.28 while the second model reproduces with good agreement observations at both sites (Cv(RMSE  =  0.84 at both sites. It is therefore suggested that in winter air–snow interactions of nitrate are determined by non-equilibrium surface adsorption and co-condensation on ice coupled with solid-state diffusion inside the grain, similar to Bock et al. (2016. In summer, however, the air–snow exchange of nitrate is mainly driven by solvation into liquid micropockets following Henry's law with

  20. Modelling silicon supply during the Last Interglacial (MIS 5e) at Lake Baikal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panizzo, V. N.; Swann, G. E. A.; Mackay, A. W.; Pashley, V.; Horstwood, M. S. A.

    2018-06-01

    Limnological reconstructions of primary productivity have demonstrated its response over Quaternary timescales to drivers such as climate change, landscape evolution and lake ontogeny. In particular, sediments from Lake Baikal, Siberia, provide a valuable uninterrupted and continuous sequence of biogenic silica (BSi) records, which document orbital and sub-orbital frequencies of regional climate change. We here extend these records via the application of stable isotope analysis of silica in diatom opal (δ30Sidiatom) from sediments covering the Last Interglacial cycle (Marine Isotope Stage [MIS] 5e; c. 130 to 115 ka BP) as a means to test the hypothesis that it was more productive than the Holocene. δ30Sidiatom data for the Last Interglacial range between +1.29 and +1.78‰, with highest values between c. 127 to 124 ka BP (+1.57 to +1.78‰). Results show that diatom dissolved silicon (DSi) utilisation, was significantly higher (p = 0.001) during MIS 5e than the current interglacial, which reflects increased diatom productivity over this time (concomitant with high diatom biovolume accumulation rates [BVAR] and warmer pollen-inferred vegetation reconstructions). Diatom BVAR are used, in tandem with δ30Sidiatom data, to model DSi supply to Lake Baikal surface waters, which shows that highest delivery was between c. 123 to 120 ka BP (reaching peak supply at c. 120 ka BP). When constrained by sedimentary mineralogical archives of catchment weathering indices (e.g. the Hydrolysis Index), data highlight the small degree of weathering intensity and therefore representation that catchment-weathering DSi sources had, over the duration of MIS 5e. Changes to DSi supply are therefore attributed to variations in within-lake conditions (e.g. turbulent mixing) over the period, where periods of both high productivity and modelled-DSi supply (e.g. strong convective mixing) account for the decreasing trend in δ30Sidiatom compositions (after c. 124 ka BP).

  1. Genetic models reveal historical patterns of sea lamprey population fluctuations within Lake Champlain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cassidy C. D’Aloia

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available The origin of sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus in Lake Champlain has been heavily debated over the past decade. Given the lack of historical documentation, two competing hypotheses have emerged in the literature. First, it has been argued that the relatively recent population size increase and concomitant rise in wounding rates on prey populations are indicative of an invasive population that entered the lake through the Champlain Canal. Second, recent genetic evidence suggests a post-glacial colonization at the end of the Pleistocene, approximately 11,000 years ago. One limitation to resolving the origin of sea lamprey in Lake Champlain is a lack of historical and current measures of population size. In this study, the issue of population size was explicitly addressed using nuclear (nDNA and mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA markers to estimate historical demography with genetic models. Haplotype network analysis, mismatch analysis, and summary statistics based on mtDNA noncoding sequences for NCI (479 bp and NCII (173 bp all indicate a recent population expansion. Coalescent models based on mtDNA and nDNA identified two potential demographic events: a population decline followed by a very recent population expansion. The decline in effective population size may correlate with land-use and fishing pressure changes post-European settlement, while the recent expansion may be associated with the implementation of the salmonid stocking program in the 1970s. These results are most consistent with the hypothesis that sea lamprey are native to Lake Champlain; however, the credibility intervals around parameter estimates demonstrate that there is uncertainty regarding the magnitude and timing of past demographic events.

  2. A fugacity model for source determination of the Lake Baikal region pollution with polychlorinated Biphenyls

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sofiev, M. [Finnish Meteorological Inst., Helsinki (Finland); Galperin, M.; Maslyaev, A. [Inst. of Program Systems, Pereslavl-Zalesskiy (Russian Federation); McLachlan, M. [Stockholm Univ. (Sweden); Wania, F. [Toronto Univ. (Canada)

    2004-09-15

    PCBs were discovered in the Lake Baikal ecosystem by Malakhov et al. and Bobovnikova et al. A follow up to the initial study showed no decrease over 1981-1989 4, in contrast to what has been observed in other water bodies in the industrialised world. Further studies also showed the contamination in pinnipeds to be among the highest measured anywhere. Above studies and other data suggested a presence of a strong local PCB source (or several ones), which has had a widespread adverse effect for the whole region. To locate the source, Mamontov et al. collected samples from 34 sites over the region, the analysis of which showed a gradient of a factor of 1000, with the lowest concentrations at the north-east of Lake Baikal and the highest concentrations close to the city of Usolye Sibirskoye, a centre of the chemical industry in the Angara River valley. A continuous decrease in the soil contamination was observed along the path from Usolye Sibirskoye up the Angara River valley to Lake Baikal and from there north-eastward along the lake. These results indicate that there was (and perhaps still is) a major source of PCBs in the Usolye area, from where the PCBs are dispersed over the region. However, various obstacles prevent direct observations of potential sources. Therefore, a mathematical modelling approach was adopted in a currently ongoing INTAS project aiming to shed some more light on this problem. The model principles, setup and the results of the first experiments are presented in the current paper.

  3. Long-term records and modelling of acidification, recovery and liming at Lake Hovvatn, Norway

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hindar, A. [Norwegian Inst. for Water Research, Grimstad (Norway); Wright, R.F. [Norwegian Inst. for Water Research, Oslo (Norway)

    2005-11-01

    Scenarios for acidification in Europe have shown that large parts of southern Norway will be negatively impacted by sulfur (S) and nitrogen (N) emissions in the future. Long-term data of acidification and recovery as well as the effects of a liming program at Lake Store Hovvatn were presented in this paper, along with data collected from Lake Lille Hovvatn as unlimed reference. Water samples from the lakes were collected 5 times annually from varying depths. Total organic carbon was measured after wet chemical oxidation by infrared detection. Acidification hindcasts and forecasts for the period 1870-2050 were conducted with the dynamic model MAGIC, which simulated soil solution and surface water chemistry to predict average concentrations of the major ions. The model showed good agreement with major changes in water chemistry observed over the past 30 years, as well simulating pH and concentrations of inorganic aluminium (Al). The data were evaluated in terms of the prospects for the re-establishment of a self-sustaining brown trout population. All liming efforts at Lake Store Hovvatn resulted in improvements in water quality. However, the stocked fish showed excellent survival and growth rates after liming but no natural recruitment, which suggested that fish eggs at shallow depths under ice cover are a sensitive biological indicator. Continuous records of pH revealed serious difficulties in maintaining adequate water quality at shallow depths in winter. While various liming techniques were discussed, it was concluded that the problem of surface water acidification in southern Norway is not solved, and a long-term strategy is called for. 45 refs., 5 tabs., 6 figs.

  4. Lake St. Clair: Storm Wave and Water Level Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-06-01

    R. A. Luettich, C. Dawson, V. J. Cardone , A. T. Cox, M. D. Powell, H. J. Westerink, and H. J. Roberts. 2010. A high resolution coupled riverine flow...Storm Wave and Water Level Modeling 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6. AUTHOR(S) Tyler J. Hesser

  5. Developing Flexible, Integrated Hydrologic Modeling Systems for Multiscale Analysis in the Midwest and Great Lakes Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamlet, A. F.; Chiu, C. M.; Sharma, A.; Byun, K.; Hanson, Z.

    2016-12-01

    Physically based hydrologic modeling of surface and groundwater resources that can be flexibly and efficiently applied to support water resources policy/planning/management decisions at a wide range of spatial and temporal scales are greatly needed in the Midwest, where stakeholder access to such tools is currently a fundamental barrier to basic climate change assessment and adaptation efforts, and also the co-production of useful products to support detailed decision making. Based on earlier pilot studies in the Pacific Northwest Region, we are currently assembling a suite of end-to-end tools and resources to support various kinds of water resources planning and management applications across the region. One of the key aspects of these integrated tools is that the user community can access gridded products at any point along the end-to-end chain of models, looking backwards in time about 100 years (1915-2015), and forwards in time about 85 years using CMIP5 climate model projections. The integrated model is composed of historical and projected future meteorological data based on station observations and statistical and dynamically downscaled climate model output respectively. These gridded meteorological data sets serve as forcing data for the macro-scale VIC hydrologic model implemented over the Midwest at 1/16 degree resolution. High-resolution climate model (4km WRF) output provides inputs for the analyses of urban impacts, hydrologic extremes, agricultural impacts, and impacts to the Great Lakes. Groundwater recharge estimated by the surface water model provides input data for fine-scale and macro-scale groundwater models needed for specific applications. To highlight the multi-scale use of the integrated models in support of co-production of scientific information for decision making, we briefly describe three current case studies addressing different spatial scales of analysis: 1) Effects of climate change on the water balance of the Great Lakes, 2) Future

  6. Unveiling the Antarctic subglacial landscape.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Warner, Roland; Roberts, Jason

    2010-05-01

    revealed by this approach, and we advocate its consideration in future ice thickness data syntheses. REFERENCES Budd, W.F., and R.C. Warner, 1996. A computer scheme for rapid calculations of balance-flux distributions. Annals of Glaciology 23, 21-27. Bamber, J.L., J.L. Gomez Dans and J.A. Griggs, 2009. A new 1 km digital elevation model of the Antarctic derived from combined satellite radar and laser data. Part I: Data and methods. The Cryosphere 3 (2), 101-111. Griggs, J.A., and J.L. Bamber, 2009. A new digital elevation model of Antarctica derived from combined radar and laser altimetry data. Part II: Validation and error estimates, The Cryosphere, 3(2), 113-123. Le Brocq, A.M., A.J. Payne and M.J. Siegert, 2006. West Antarctic balance calculations: Impact of flux-routing algorithm, smoothing algorithm and topography. Computers and Geosciences 23(10): 1780-1795. Lythe, M. B., D.G. Vaughan, and the BEDMAP Consortium 2001, BEDMAP: A new ice thickness and subglacial topographic model of Antarctica, J. of Geophys. Res., 106(B6),11,335-11,351. van de Berg, W.J., M.R. van den Broeke, C.H. Reijmer, and E. van Meijgaard, 2006. Reassessment of the Antarctic surface mass balance using calibrated output of a regional atmospheric climate model, J. Geophys. Res., 111, D11104,doi:10.1029/2005JD006495. Warner, R.C., and W.F. Budd, 2000. Derivation of ice thickness and bedrock topography in data-gap regions over Antarctica, Annals of Glaciology, 31, 191-197. Wright, A.P., M.J. Siegert, A.M. Le Brocq, and D.B. Gore, 2008. High sensitivity of subglacial hydrological pathways in Antarctica to small ice-sheet changes, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L17504, doi:10.1029/2008GL034937.

  7. Integrating chronological uncertainties for annually laminated lake sediments using layer counting, independent chronologies and Bayesian age modelling (Lake Ohau, South Island, New Zealand)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vandergoes, Marcus J.; Howarth, Jamie D.; Dunbar, Gavin B.; Turnbull, Jocelyn C.; Roop, Heidi A.; Levy, Richard H.; Li, Xun; Prior, Christine; Norris, Margaret; Keller, Liz D.; Baisden, W. Troy; Ditchburn, Robert; Fitzsimons, Sean J.; Bronk Ramsey, Christopher

    2018-05-01

    Annually resolved (varved) lake sequences are important palaeoenvironmental archives as they offer a direct incremental dating technique for high-frequency reconstruction of environmental and climate change. Despite the importance of these records, establishing a robust chronology and quantifying its precision and accuracy (estimations of error) remains an essential but challenging component of their development. We outline an approach for building reliable independent chronologies, testing the accuracy of layer counts and integrating all chronological uncertainties to provide quantitative age and error estimates for varved lake sequences. The approach incorporates (1) layer counts and estimates of counting precision; (2) radiometric and biostratigrapic dating techniques to derive independent chronology; and (3) the application of Bayesian age modelling to produce an integrated age model. This approach is applied to a case study of an annually resolved sediment record from Lake Ohau, New Zealand. The most robust age model provides an average error of 72 years across the whole depth range. This represents a fractional uncertainty of ∼5%, higher than the <3% quoted for most published varve records. However, the age model and reported uncertainty represent the best fit between layer counts and independent chronology and the uncertainties account for both layer counting precision and the chronological accuracy of the layer counts. This integrated approach provides a more representative estimate of age uncertainty and therefore represents a statistically more robust chronology.

  8. A metabolism-based whole lake eutrophication model to estimate the magnitude and time scales of the effects of restoration in Upper Klamath Lake, south-central Oregon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wherry, Susan A.; Wood, Tamara M.

    2018-04-27

    A whole lake eutrophication (WLE) model approach for phosphorus and cyanobacterial biomass in Upper Klamath Lake, south-central Oregon, is presented here. The model is a successor to a previous model developed to inform a Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) for phosphorus in the lake, but is based on net primary production (NPP), which can be calculated from dissolved oxygen, rather than scaling up a small-scale description of cyanobacterial growth and respiration rates. This phase 3 WLE model is a refinement of the proof-of-concept developed in phase 2, which was the first attempt to use NPP to simulate cyanobacteria in the TMDL model. The calibration of the calculated NPP WLE model was successful, with performance metrics indicating a good fit to calibration data, and the calculated NPP WLE model was able to simulate mid-season bloom decreases, a feature that previous models could not reproduce.In order to use the model to simulate future scenarios based on phosphorus load reduction, a multivariate regression model was created to simulate NPP as a function of the model state variables (phosphorus and chlorophyll a) and measured meteorological and temperature model inputs. The NPP time series was split into a low- and high-frequency component using wavelet analysis, and regression models were fit to the components separately, with moderate success.The regression models for NPP were incorporated in the WLE model, referred to as the “scenario” WLE (SWLE), and the fit statistics for phosphorus during the calibration period were mostly unchanged. The fit statistics for chlorophyll a, however, were degraded. These statistics are still an improvement over prior models, and indicate that the SWLE is appropriate for long-term predictions even though it misses some of the seasonal variations in chlorophyll a.The complete whole lake SWLE model, with multivariate regression to predict NPP, was used to make long-term simulations of the response to 10-, 20-, and 40-percent

  9. Modelling nitrogen transformation and removal in mara river basin wetlands upstream of lake Victoria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mayo, Aloyce W.; Muraza, Marwa; Norbert, Joel

    2018-06-01

    Lake Victoria, the largest lake in Africa, is a resource of social-economic potential in East Africa. This lake receives water from numerous tributaries including Mara River, which contributes about 4.8% of the total Lake water inflow. Unfortunately, Mara River basin faces environmental problems because of intensive settlement, agriculture, overgrazing in the basin and mining activities, which has lead to water pollution in the river, soil erosion and degradation, decreased soil fertility, loss of vegetation cover, decreased water infiltration capacity and increased sedimentation. One of the pollutants carried by the river includes nitrogen, which has contributed to ecological degradation of the Lake Victoria. Therefore this research work was intended to determine the effectiveness of Mara River wetland for removal of nitrogen and to establish nitrogen removal mechanisms in the wetland. To predict nitrogen removal in the wetland, the dynamics of nitrogen transformation was studied using a conceptual numerical model that takes into account of various processes in the system using STELLA II version 9.0®2006 software. Samples of model input from water, plants and sediments were taken for 45 days and were analyzed for pH, temperature, and DO in situ and chemical parameters such as NH3-N, Org-N, NO2-N, and NO3-N were analyzed in the laboratory in accordance with Standard methods. For plants, the density, dominance, biomass productivity and TN were determined and for sediments TN was analyzed. Inflow into the wetland was determined using stage-discharge relationship and was found to be 734,400 m3/day and the average wetland volume was 1,113,500 m3. Data collected by this study were used for model calibration of nitrogen transformation in this wetland while data from another wetland were used for model validation. It was found that about 37.8% of total nitrogen was removed by the wetland system largely through sedimentation (26.6%), plant uptake (6.6%) and

  10. Forecasting the evolution in the mixing regime of a deep subalpine lake under climate change scenarios through numerical modelling (Lake Maggiore, Northern Italy/Southern Switzerland)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fenocchi, Andrea; Rogora, Michela; Sibilla, Stefano; Ciampittiello, Marzia; Dresti, Claudia

    2018-01-01

    The impact of air temperature rise is eminent for the large deep lakes in the Italian subalpine district, climate change being caused there by both natural phenomena and anthropogenic greenhouse-gases (GHG) emissions. These oligomictic lakes are experiencing a decrease in the frequency of winter full turnover and an intensification of stability. As a result, hypolimnetic oxygen concentrations are decreasing and nutrients are accumulating in bottom water, with effects on the whole ecosystem functioning. Forecasting the future evolution of the mixing pattern is relevant to assess if a reduction in GHG releases would be able to revert such processes. The study focuses on Lake Maggiore, for which the thermal structure evolution under climate change in the 2016-2085 period was assessed through numerical simulations, performed with the General Lake Model (GLM). Different prospects of regional air temperature rise were considered, given by the Swiss Climate Change Scenarios CH2011. Multiple realisations were performed for each scenario to obtain robust statistical predictions, adopting random series of meteorological data produced with the Vector-Autoregressive Weather Generator (VG). Results show that a reversion in the increasing thermal stability would be possible only if global GHG emissions started to be reduced by 2020, allowing an equilibrium mixing regime to be restored by the end of the twenty-first century. Otherwise, persistent lack of complete-mixing, severe water warming and extensive effects on water quality are to be expected for the centuries to come. These projections can be extended to the other lakes in the subalpine district.

  11. A DPSIR model for ecological security assessment through indicator screening: a case study at Dianchi Lake in China.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhen Wang

    Full Text Available Given the important role of lake ecosystems in social and economic development, and the current severe environmental degradation in China, a systematic diagnosis of the ecological security of lakes is essential for sustainable development. A Driving-force, Pressure, Status, Impact, and Risk (DPSIR model, combined with data screening for lake ecological security assessment was developed to overcome the disadvantages of data selection in existing assessment methods. Correlation and principal component analysis were used to select independent and representative data. The DPSIR model was then applied to evaluate the ecological security of Dianchi Lake in China during 1988-2007 using an ecological security index. The results revealed a V-shaped trend. The application of the DPSIR model with data screening provided useful information regarding the status of the lake's ecosystem, while ensuring information efficiency and eliminating multicollinearity. The modeling approach described here is practical and operationally efficient, and provides an attractive alternative approach to assess the ecological security of lakes.

  12. Forecasting effects of climate change on Great Lakes fisheries: models that link habitat supply to population dynamics can help

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Michael L.; Shuter, Brian J.; Zhao, Yingming; Stockwell, Jason D.

    2006-01-01

    Future changes to climate in the Great Lakes may have important consequences for fisheries. Evidence suggests that Great Lakes air and water temperatures have risen and the duration of ice cover has lessened during the past century. Global circulation models (GCMs) suggest future warming and increases in precipitation in the region. We present new evidence that water temperatures have risen in Lake Erie, particularly during summer and winter in the period 1965–2000. GCM forecasts coupled with physical models suggest lower annual runoff, less ice cover, and lower lake levels in the future, but the certainty of these forecasts is low. Assessment of the likely effects of climate change on fish stocks will require an integrative approach that considers several components of habitat rather than water temperature alone. We recommend using mechanistic models that couple habitat conditions to population demographics to explore integrated effects of climate-caused habitat change and illustrate this approach with a model for Lake Erie walleye (Sander vitreum). We show that the combined effect on walleye populations of plausible changes in temperature, river hydrology, lake levels, and light penetration can be quite different from that which would be expected based on consideration of only a single factor.

  13. Development of a multichemical food web model: application to PBDEs in Lake Ellasjoen, Bear Island, Norway.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gandhi, Nilima; Bhavsar, Satyendra P; Gewurtz, Sarah B; Diamond, Miriam L; Evenset, Anita; Christensen, Guttorm N; Gregor, Dennis

    2006-08-01

    A multichemical food web model has been developed to estimate the biomagnification of interconverting chemicals in aquatic food webs. We extended a fugacity-based food web model for single chemicals to account for reversible and irreversible biotransformation among a parent chemical and transformation products, by simultaneously solving mass balance equations of the chemicals using a matrix solution. The model can be applied to any number of chemicals and organisms or taxonomic groups in a food web. The model was illustratively applied to four PBDE congeners, BDE-47, -99, -100, and -153, in the food web of Lake Ellasjøen, Bear Island, Norway. In Ellasjøen arctic char (Salvelinus alpinus), the multichemical model estimated PBDE biotransformation from higher to lower brominated congeners and improved the correspondence between estimated and measured concentrations in comparison to estimates from the single-chemical food web model. The underestimation of BDE-47, even after considering bioformation due to biotransformation of the otherthree congeners, suggests its formation from additional biotransformation pathways not considered in this application. The model estimates approximate values for congener-specific biotransformation half-lives of 5.7,0.8,1.14, and 0.45 years for BDE-47, -99, -100, and -153, respectively, in large arctic char (S. alpinus) of Lake Ellasjøen.

  14. Validation of a model with climatic and flow scenario analysis: case of Lake Burrumbeet in southeastern Australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yihdego, Yohannes; Webb, John

    2016-05-01

    Forecast evaluation is an important topic that addresses the development of reliable hydrological probabilistic forecasts, mainly through the use of climate uncertainties. Often, validation has no place in hydrology for most of the times, despite the parameters of a model are uncertain. Similarly, the structure of the model can be incorrectly chosen. A calibrated and verified dynamic hydrologic water balance spreadsheet model has been used to assess the effect of climate variability on Lake Burrumbeet, southeastern Australia. The lake level has been verified to lake level, lake volume, lake surface area, surface outflow and lake salinity. The current study aims to increase lake level confidence model prediction through historical validation for the year 2008-2013, under different climatic scenario. Based on the observed climatic condition (2008-2013), it fairly matches with a hybridization of scenarios, being the period interval (2008-2013), corresponds to both dry and wet climatic condition. Besides to the hydrologic stresses uncertainty, uncertainty in the calibrated model is among the major drawbacks involved in making scenario simulations. In line with this, the uncertainty in the calibrated model was tested using sensitivity analysis and showed that errors in the model can largely be attributed to erroneous estimates of evaporation and rainfall, and surface inflow to a lesser. The study demonstrates that several climatic scenarios should be analysed, with a combination of extreme climate, stream flow and climate change instead of one assumed climatic sequence, to improve climate variability prediction in the future. Performing such scenario analysis is a valid exercise to comprehend the uncertainty with the model structure and hydrology, in a meaningful way, without missing those, even considered as less probable, ultimately turned to be crucial for decision making and will definitely increase the confidence of model prediction for management of the water

  15. Modeling phosphorus in the Lake Allatoona watershed using SWAT: I. Developing phosphorus parameter values.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Radcliffe, D E; Lin, Z; Risse, L M; Romeis, J J; Jackson, C R

    2009-01-01

    Lake Allatoona is a large reservoir north of Atlanta, GA, that drains an area of about 2870 km2 scheduled for a phosphorus (P) total maximum daily load (TMDL). The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model has been widely used for watershed-scale modeling of P, but there is little guidance on how to estimate P-related parameters, especially those related to in-stream P processes. In this paper, methods are demonstrated to individually estimate SWAT soil-related P parameters and to collectively estimate P parameters related to stream processes. Stream related parameters were obtained using the nutrient uptake length concept. In a manner similar to experiments conducted by stream ecologists, a small point source is simulated in a headwater sub-basin of the SWAT models, then the in-stream parameter values are adjusted collectively to get an uptake length of P similar to the values measured in the streams in the region. After adjusting the in-stream parameters, the P uptake length estimated in the simulations ranged from 53 to 149 km compared to uptake lengths measured by ecologists in the region of 11 to 85 km. Once the a priori P-related parameter set was developed, the SWAT models of main tributaries to Lake Allatoona were calibrated for daily transport. Models using SWAT P parameters derived from the methods in this paper outperformed models using default parameter values when predicting total P (TP) concentrations in streams during storm events and TP annual loads to Lake Allatoona.

  16. Impact of partly ice-free Lake Ladoga on temperature and cloudiness in an anticyclonic winter situation – a case study using a limited area model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kalle Eerola

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available At the end of January 2012, a low-level cloud from partly ice-free Lake Ladoga caused very variable 2-m temperatures in Eastern Finland. The sensitivity of the High Resolution Limited Area Model (HIRLAM to the lake surface conditions was tested in this winter anticyclonic situation. The lake appeared to be (incorrectly totally covered by ice when the lake surface was described with its climatology. Both parametrisation of the lake surface state by using a lake model integrated to the NWP system and objective analysis based on satellite observations independently resulted in a correct description of the partly ice-free Lake Ladoga. In these cases, HIRLAM model forecasts were able to predict cloud formation and its movement as well as 2-m temperature variations in a realistic way. Three main conclusions were drawn. First, HIRLAM could predict the effect of Lake Ladoga on local weather, when the lake surface state was known. Second, the current parametrisation methods of air–surface interactions led to a reliable result in conditions where the different physical processes (local surface processes, radiation and turbulence were not strong, but their combined effect was important. Third, these results encourage work for a better description of the lake surface state in NWP models by fully utilising satellite observations, combined with advanced lake parametrisation and data assimilation methods.

  17. Modeled sensitivity of Lake Michigan productivity and zooplankton to changing nutrient concentrations and quagga mussels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pilcher, Darren J.; McKinley, Galen A.; Kralj, James; Bootsma, Harvey A.; Reavie, Euan D.

    2017-08-01

    The recent decline in Lake Michigan productivity is often attributed to filter feeding by invasive quagga mussels, but some studies also implicate reductions in lakewide nutrient concentrations. We use a 3-D coupled hydrodynamic-biogeochemical model to evaluate the effect of changing nutrient concentrations and quagga mussel filtering on phytoplankton production and phytoplankton and zooplankton biomass. Sensitivity experiments are used to assess the net effect of each change separately and in unison. Quagga mussels are found to have the greatest impact during periods of isothermal mixing, while nutrients have the greatest impact during thermal stratification. Quagga mussels also act to enhance spatial heterogeneity, particularly between nearshore-offshore regions. This effect produces a reversal in the gradient of nearshore-offshore productivity: from relatively greater nearshore productivity in the prequagga lake to relatively lesser nearshore productivity after quaggas. The combined impact of both processes drives substantial reductions in phytoplankton and zooplankton biomass, as well as significant modifications to the seasonality of surface water pCO2, particularly in nearshore regions where mussel grazing continues year-round. These results support growing concern that considerable losses of phytoplankton and zooplankton will yield concurrent losses at higher trophic levels. Comparisons to observed productivity suggest that both quagga mussel filtration and lower lakewide total phosphorus are necessary to accurately simulate recent changes in primary productivity in Lake Michigan.

  18. Modeling detection probability to improve marsh bird surveys in southern Canada and the Great Lakes states

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Douglas C. Tozer

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Marsh birds are notoriously elusive, with variation in detection probability across species, regions, seasons, and different times of day and weather. Therefore, it is important to develop regional field survey protocols that maximize detections, but that also produce data for estimating and analytically adjusting for remaining differences in detections. We aimed to improve regional field survey protocols by estimating detection probability of eight elusive marsh bird species throughout two regions that have ongoing marsh bird monitoring programs: the southern Canadian Prairies (Prairie region and the southern portion of the Great Lakes basin and parts of southern Québec (Great Lakes-St. Lawrence region. We accomplished our goal using generalized binomial N-mixture models and data from ~22,300 marsh bird surveys conducted between 2008 and 2014 by Bird Studies Canada's Prairie, Great Lakes, and Québec Marsh Monitoring Programs. Across all species, on average, detection probability was highest in the Great Lakes-St. Lawrence region from the beginning of May until mid-June, and then fell throughout the remainder of the season until the end of June; was lowest in the Prairie region in mid-May and then increased throughout the remainder of the season until the end of June; was highest during darkness compared with light; and did not vary significantly according to temperature (range: 0-30°C, cloud cover (0%-100%, or wind (0-20 kph, or during morning versus evening. We used our results to formulate improved marsh bird survey protocols for each region. Our analysis and recommendations are useful and contribute to conservation of wetland birds at various scales from local single-species studies to the continental North American Marsh Bird Monitoring Program.

  19. Simulation of the Twin Lake tracer tests using different transport models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaleris, V.; Klukas, M.; Moltyaner, G.L.

    1990-01-01

    The 1983 Twin Lake tracer test was simulated using two different sets of the aquifer parameters and three different numerical models. The purpose of the simulations was to identify the parameter set and the model most appropriate to describe the transport phenomena in the Twin Lake aquifer. It is shown that a reliable estimation of the aquifer parameters cannot be obtained from the flow model alone. Transport models must also be used to obtain a reliable estimate of parameters. The method-of-characteristics and random-walk models were used for this purpose. The sensitivity of the results to different execution parameters was evaluated and the required computational efforts were compared. Finally, results obtained by the method of characteristics were compared with the results of a finite element simulation carried out with the same spatial discretization. The comparison demonstrates the influence of the numerical dispersion on the results of the finite element method. Travel time calculations represent a simple way to test the accuracy of the aquifer parameters before transport modeling is done. (Author) (14 refs, 19 figs., 3 tabs.)

  20. Simulation models for water pollution in rivers and lakes; Suishitsu osen no simulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hosomi, M. [Tokyo Univ. of Agriculture and Technology, Koganei (Japan). Faculty of Technology

    1996-11-05

    Rivers, lakes, and dam lakes are taken up as fields related to urban environment, and simulation models for water pollution control is introduced which are considered to be important for controlling water quality. In connection with rivers, a model showing the relationship between organic contamination and DO (dissolved oxygen) as well as an analyzed example of the use of continuous data of easy-to-measure DO are introduced. DO and pH in urban rivers sometimes exceed the environmental standards in the dry season. The cause is greater effect of biofilm adhesion at the river bed due to elongated staying time, and the establishment of the maintained river flow rate must be reviewed. One of the problems of ecological models is the deficiency of the data for the verification of the ecological models, and arrangement to solve the problem is required. Although it is admitted that simulation of phytoplankton in which neural network is employed has just started, it is expected to become an effective means for the study of phenomena which can not be elucidated by the modeling using normal numeric models. 7 refs., 13 figs.

  1. Modelling of the underwater disposal of uranium mine tailings in Elliot Lake

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Halbert, B.E.; Scharer, J.M.; Chakravatti, J.L.; Barnes, E.

    1982-01-01

    Underwater disposal of uranium mine tailings from the Elliot Lake area operations offers potential advantages in controlling radon gas release, emission of airborne particulate matter, and acid production from pyrites in the tailings. In addition, the proximity of the three active properties, one owned by Denison Mines Limited and two by Rio Algom Limited, to a large deep lake has spurred interest in the concept. It has been estimated that the placement of approximately 150 million tonnes of tailings from future planned production would occupy less than 20% of the lake volume. To assess the applicability of the underwater tailings disposal concept, a multi-stage study was developed in conjunction with the regulatory agencies. The most important facet identified for investigation during the first-stage investigations was an assessment of the effects of underwater disposal on water quality in the Serpent River Basin watershed. To simulate the effects of underwater disposal, a computer simulation routine was developed and integrated with a water quality model previously developed for the Basin which predicts levels of total dissolved solids, ammonia, dissolved radium-226 and pH. The underwater disposal model component reflects the effects of direct input of tailings into the hypolimnion, the chemical/biological transformation of dissolved constituents in the water column, the reactions of pyritic tailings deposited on the bottom, and the flux of dissolved constituents from the tailings into the water column. To establish site-specific values for the underwater disposal model, field and laboratory experiments were utilized to evaluate rates of pyrite and ammonia oxidation, and pH-alkalinity relationships. The results of these studies and their use in the water quality model are discussed. In addition, the results of two model run simulations are presented. (author)

  2. Paleolimnologic and modeling perspectives on the physical and ecological sensitivity of Arctic tundra lakes to temperature changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daniels, W.; Russel, J.; Giblin, A. E.; Longo, W. M.; Morrill, C.; Holland-Stergar, P.; Rose, R.; Huang, Y.

    2016-12-01

    Temperatures are warming rapidly across the Arctic, with the potential to substantially alter freshwater ecosystem structure and functioning. Some important processes, such as allochthonous loading or carbon burial, may respond too slowly to observe in modern monitoring efforts, and therefore require alternative approaches to accurately assess. Here we analyze the physical and ecological sensitivity of Alaska tundra lakes to climate change through the lenses of paleolimnology and lake thermal modeling. We compare a 10,000 year long record of biomarker-inferred temperature change (leaf wax hydrogen isotopes) to independent indicators of lake primary production (chlorophyll a), algal community structure (diatom assemblages), and allochthonous inputs (XRF chemistry) from Lake E5 and Upper Capsule Lake near the Toolik Field Station in Alaska (69 °N, 150 °W). Temperatures varied on the order of 2-5 °C over the last 10,000 years, and warmed 1-2 °C during the post-industrial period. Shifts in diatom communities in both lakes reflect increased lake stratification and lake pH during warmer intervals of the Holocene. While lake stratification is a direct response to temperature, we propose that the pH response is due to a combination of two factors. First, an increase in the length of the ice-free season promotes ventilation of respired CO2 out of the lakes. Thermal modeling suggests that lake ice coverage changes by approximately 6-8 days/°C, and so we expect that ice-cover changed by as much as 3-4 weeks throughout the Holocene. Secondarily, sediment core calcium concentrations suggest increased base cation and alkalinity inputs during warmer periods, most likely due to the thermal-induced deepening of the soil active layer and enhanced carbonate rock weathering. Carbon and chlorophyll concentrations appear negatively correlated with temperature over most the Holocene, attributable to the temperature effect on organic matter respiration, although periods of enhanced

  3. 3D-modelling of the thermal circumstances of a lake under artificial aeration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tian, Xiaoqing; Pan, Huachen; Köngäs, Petrina; Horppila, Jukka

    2017-12-01

    A 3D-model was developed to study the effects of hypolimnetic aeration on the temperature profile of a thermally stratified Lake Vesijärvi (southern Finland). Aeration was conducted by pumping epilimnetic water through the thermocline to the hypolimnion without breaking the thermal stratification. The model used time transient equation based on Navier-Stokes equation. The model was fitted to the vertical temperature distribution and environmental parameters (wind, air temperature, and solar radiation) before the onset of aeration, and the model was used to predict the vertical temperature distribution 3 and 15 days after the onset of aeration (1 August and 22 August). The difference between the modelled and observed temperature was on average 0.6 °C. The average percentage model error was 4.0% on 1 August and 3.7% on 22 August. In the epilimnion, model accuracy depended on the difference between the observed temperature and boundary conditions. In the hypolimnion, the model residual decreased with increasing depth. On 1 August, the model predicted a homogenous temperature profile in the hypolimnion, while the observed temperature decreased moderately from the thermocline to the bottom. This was because the effect of sediment was not included in the model. On 22 August, the modelled and observed temperatures near the bottom were identical demonstrating that the heat transfer by the aerator masked the effect of sediment and that exclusion of sediment heat from the model does not cause considerable error unless very short-term effects of aeration are studied. In all, the model successfully described the effects of the aerator on the lake's temperature profile. The results confirmed the validity of the applied computational fluid dynamic in artificial aeration; based on the simulated results, the effect of aeration can be predicted.

  4. Thermal processes of thermokarst lakes in the continuous permafrost zone of northern Siberia - observations and modeling (Lena River Delta, Siberia)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boike, J.; Georgi, C.; Kirilin, G.; Muster, S.; Abramova, K.; Fedorova, I.; Chetverova, A.; Grigoriev, M.; Bornemann, N.; Langer, M.

    2015-10-01

    Thermokarst lakes are typical features of the northern permafrost ecosystems, and play an important role in the thermal exchange between atmosphere and subsurface. The objective of this study is to describe the main thermal processes of the lakes and to quantify the heat exchange with the underlying sediments. The thermal regimes of five lakes located within the continuous permafrost zone of northern Siberia (Lena River Delta) were investigated using hourly water temperature and water level records covering a 3-year period (2009-2012), together with bathymetric survey data. The lakes included thermokarst lakes located on Holocene river terraces that may be connected to Lena River water during spring flooding, and a thermokarst lake located on deposits of the Pleistocene Ice Complex. Lakes were covered by ice up to 2 m thick that persisted for more than 7 months of the year, from October until about mid-June. Lake-bottom temperatures increased at the start of the ice-covered period due to upward-directed heat flux from the underlying thawed sediment. Prior to ice break-up, solar radiation effectively warmed the water beneath the ice cover and induced convective mixing. Ice break-up started at the beginning of June and lasted until the middle or end of June. Mixing occurred within the entire water column from the start of ice break-up and continued during the ice-free periods, as confirmed by the Wedderburn numbers, a quantitative measure of the balance between wind mixing and stratification that is important for describing the biogeochemical cycles of lakes. The lake thermal regime was modeled numerically using the FLake model. The model demonstrated good agreement with observations with regard to the mean lake temperature, with a good reproduction of the summer stratification during the ice-free period, but poor agreement during the ice-covered period. Modeled sensitivity to lake depth demonstrated that lakes in this climatic zone with mean depths > 5 m develop

  5. Interfacing a one-dimensional lake model with a single-column atmospheric model: 2. Thermal response of the deep Lake Geneva, Switzerland under a 2 × CO2 global climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perroud, Marjorie; Goyette, StéPhane

    2012-06-01

    In the companion to the present paper, the one-dimensional k-ɛ lake model SIMSTRAT is coupled to a single-column atmospheric model, nicknamed FIZC, and an application of the coupled model to the deep Lake Geneva, Switzerland, is described. In this paper, the response of Lake Geneva to global warming caused by an increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration (i.e., 2 × CO2) is investigated. Coupling the models allowed for feedbacks between the lake surface and the atmosphere and produced changes in atmospheric moisture and cloud cover that further modified the downward radiation fluxes. The time evolution of atmospheric variables as well as those of the lake's thermal profile could be reproduced realistically by devising a set of adjustable parameters. In a "control" 1 × CO2 climate experiment, the coupled FIZC-SIMSTRAT model demonstrated genuine skills in reproducing epilimnetic and hypolimnetic temperatures, with annual mean errors and standard deviations of 0.25°C ± 0.25°C and 0.3°C ± 0.15°C, respectively. Doubling the CO2 concentration induced an atmospheric warming that impacted the lake's thermal structure, increasing the stability of the water column and extending the stratified period by 3 weeks. Epilimnetic temperatures were seen to increase by 2.6°C to 4.2°C, while hypolimnion temperatures increased by 2.2°C. Climate change modified components of the surface energy budget through changes mainly in air temperature, moisture, and cloud cover. During summer, reduced cloud cover resulted in an increase in the annual net solar radiation budget. A larger water vapor deficit at the air-water interface induced a cooling effect in the lake.

  6. Investigating palaeo-subglacial lakes in the central Barents Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Esteves, M.; Shackleton, C.; Winsborrow, M.; Andreassen, K.; Bjarnadóttir, L. R.

    2017-12-01

    In the past decade hundreds of subglacial lakes have been detected beneath the Antarctic Ice Sheet, and several more beneath the Greenland Ice Sheet. These are important components of the subglacial hydrological system and can influence basal shear stress, with implications for ice sheet dynamics and mass balance, potentially on rapid timescales. Improvements in our understanding of subglacial hydrological systems are therefore important, but challenging due to the inaccessibility of contemporary subglacial environments. Whilst the beds of palaeo-ice sheets are easier to access, few palaeo-subglacial lakes have been identified due to uncertainties in the sedimentological and geomorphological diagnostic criteria. In this study we address these uncertainties, using a suite of sedimentological, geomorphological and modelling approaches to investigate sites of potential palaeo-subglacial lakes in the central Barents Sea. Geomorphological signatures of hydraulic activity in the area include large meltwater channels, tunnel valleys, and several interlinked basins. Modelling efforts indicate the potential for subglacial hydraulic sinks within the area during the early stages of ice retreat since the Last Glacial Maximum. In support of this, sedimentological observations indicate the presence of a dynamic glaciolacustrine depositional environment. Using the combined results of the modelling, geomorphology, and sedimentological analyses, we conclude that palaeo-subglacial lakes are likely to have formed on the northwestern banks of Thor Iversenbanken, central Barents Sea, and suggest that numerous other subglacial lakes may have been present beneath the Barents Sea Ice Sheet. Furthermore, we investigate and refine the existing diagnostic criteria for the identification of palaeo-subglacial lakes.

  7. Which processes dominate the uncertainties in the modelling of the transfer of radionuclides in lake ecosystems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sundblad, B.

    1991-01-01

    There are several processes governing the transfer of radionuclides in the aquatic environment. These processes are usually lumped together into specific parameters describing those processes, such as distribution coefficients and bioaccumulation factors. One can conclude from the B3 scenario that the differences in results were explained more by difference in the selection of parameter values than they were by differences in assumed lake type or model structure. The parameters contributing most to the uncertainty in model predictions were the distribution coefficient between water and sediment and the fish bioaccumulation factor. In a site specific assessment it may be possible to limit the level of consideration necessary for each process according to lake type, the chemical and physical characteristics of the radionuclides released. In the B5 scenario it was found that no new processes were identified in spite of the site specific data given. However most users changed their model according to the new information given. The A5 scenario showed that the predictions were in fairly good agreement with the observed values. Other results from this study are the importance of including resuspension, chemical form. Predictions of concentration of cesium in fish were performed by applying a constant bioaccumulation factor approach or a dynamic modelling approach. It showed that it was necessary to apply the dynamic modelling to be able to calculate the initial concentration in fish. This was also discussed in Scenario B3 and thus has been verified in Scenario A5. (3 refs., 10 figs.)

  8. Transcriptomics and comparative analysis of three antarctic notothenioid fishes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seung Chul Shin

    Full Text Available For the past 10 to 13 million years, Antarctic notothenioid fish have undergone extraordinary periods of evolution and have adapted to a cold and highly oxygenated Antarctic marine environment. While these species are considered an attractive model with which to study physiology and evolutionary adaptation, they are poorly characterized at the molecular level, and sequence information is lacking. The transcriptomes of the Antarctic fishes Notothenia coriiceps, Chaenocephalus aceratus, and Pleuragramma antarcticum were obtained by 454 FLX Titanium sequencing of a normalized cDNA library. More than 1,900,000 reads were assembled in a total of 71,539 contigs. Overall, 40% of the contigs were annotated based on similarity to known protein or nucleotide sequences, and more than 50% of the predicted transcripts were validated as full-length or putative full-length cDNAs. These three Antarctic fishes shared 663 genes expressed in the brain and 1,557 genes expressed in the liver. In addition, these cold-adapted fish expressed more Ub-conjugated proteins compared to temperate fish; Ub-conjugated proteins are involved in maintaining proteins in their native state in the cold and thermally stable Antarctic environments. Our transcriptome analysis of Antarctic notothenioid fish provides an archive for future studies in molecular mechanisms of fundamental genetic questions, and can be used in evolution studies comparing other fish.

  9. Catchment tracers reveal discharge, recharge and sources of groundwater-borne pollutants in a novel lake modelling approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Kristensen

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Groundwater-borne contaminants such as nutrients, dissolved organic carbon (DOC, coloured dissolved organic matter (CDOM and pesticides can have an impact the biological quality of lakes. The sources of pollutants can, however, be difficult to identify due to high heterogeneity in groundwater flow patterns. This study presents a novel approach for fast hydrological surveys of small groundwater-fed lakes using multiple groundwater-borne tracers. Water samples were collected from the lake and temporary groundwater wells, installed every 50 m within a distance of 5–45 m to the shore, were analysed for tracer concentrations of CDOM, DOC, total dissolved nitrogen (TDN, groundwater only, total nitrogen (TN, lake only, total dissolved phosphorus (TDP, groundwater only, total phosphorus (TP, lake only, δ18O ∕ δ16O isotope ratios and fluorescent dissolved organic matter (FDOM components derived from parallel factor analysis (PARAFAC. The isolation of groundwater recharge areas was based on δ18O measurements and areas with a high groundwater recharge rate were identified using a microbially influenced FDOM component. Groundwater discharge sites and the fractions of water delivered from the individual sites were isolated with the Community Assembly via Trait Selection model (CATS. The CATS model utilized tracer measurements of TDP, TDN, DOC and CDOM from the groundwater samples and related these to the tracer measurements of TN, TP, DOC and CDOM in the lake. A direct comparison between the lake and the inflowing groundwater was possible as degradation rates of the tracers in the lake were taken into account and related to a range of water retention times (WRTs of the lake (0.25–3.5 years in 0.25-year increments. These estimations showed that WRTs above 2 years required a higher tracer concentration of inflowing water than found in any of the groundwater wells around the lake. From the estimations of inflowing tracer concentration

  10. Catchment tracers reveal discharge, recharge and sources of groundwater-borne pollutants in a novel lake modelling approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kristensen, Emil; Madsen-Østerbye, Mikkel; Massicotte, Philippe; Pedersen, Ole; Markager, Stiig; Kragh, Theis

    2018-02-01

    Groundwater-borne contaminants such as nutrients, dissolved organic carbon (DOC), coloured dissolved organic matter (CDOM) and pesticides can have an impact the biological quality of lakes. The sources of pollutants can, however, be difficult to identify due to high heterogeneity in groundwater flow patterns. This study presents a novel approach for fast hydrological surveys of small groundwater-fed lakes using multiple groundwater-borne tracers. Water samples were collected from the lake and temporary groundwater wells, installed every 50 m within a distance of 5-45 m to the shore, were analysed for tracer concentrations of CDOM, DOC, total dissolved nitrogen (TDN, groundwater only), total nitrogen (TN, lake only), total dissolved phosphorus (TDP, groundwater only), total phosphorus (TP, lake only), δ18O / δ16O isotope ratios and fluorescent dissolved organic matter (FDOM) components derived from parallel factor analysis (PARAFAC). The isolation of groundwater recharge areas was based on δ18O measurements and areas with a high groundwater recharge rate were identified using a microbially influenced FDOM component. Groundwater discharge sites and the fractions of water delivered from the individual sites were isolated with the Community Assembly via Trait Selection model (CATS). The CATS model utilized tracer measurements of TDP, TDN, DOC and CDOM from the groundwater samples and related these to the tracer measurements of TN, TP, DOC and CDOM in the lake. A direct comparison between the lake and the inflowing groundwater was possible as degradation rates of the tracers in the lake were taken into account and related to a range of water retention times (WRTs) of the lake (0.25-3.5 years in 0.25-year increments). These estimations showed that WRTs above 2 years required a higher tracer concentration of inflowing water than found in any of the groundwater wells around the lake. From the estimations of inflowing tracer concentration, the CATS model isolated

  11. Integrated satellite InSAR and slope stability modeling to support hazard assessment at the Safuna Alta glacial lake, Peru

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cochachin, Alejo; Frey, Holger; Huggel, Christian; Strozzi, Tazio; Büechi, Emanuel; Cui, Fanpeng; Flores, Andrés; Saito, Carlos

    2017-04-01

    The Safuna glacial lakes (77˚ 37' W, 08˚ 50' S) are located in the headwater of the Tayapampa catchment, in the northernmost part of the Cordillera Blanca, Peru. The upper lake, Laguna Safuna Alta at 4354 m asl has formed in the 1960s behind a terminal moraine of the retreating Pucajirca Glacier, named after the peak south of the lakes. Safuna Alta currently has a volume of 15 x 106 m3. In 2002 a rock fall of several million m3 from the proximal left lateral moraine hit the Safuna Alta lake and triggered an impact wave which overtopped the moraine dam and passed into the lower lake, Laguna Safuna Baja, which absorbed most of the outburst flood from the upper lake, but nevertheless causing loss in cattle, degradation of agricultural land downstream and damages to a hydroelectric power station in Quitaracsa gorge. Event reconstructions showed that the impact wave in the Safuna Alta lake had a runup height of 100 m or more, and weakened the moraine dam of Safuna Alta. This fact, in combination with the large lake volumes and the continued possibility for landslides from the left proximal moraine pose a considerable risk for the downstream settlements as well as the recently completed Quitaracsa hydroelectric power plant. In the framework of a project funded by the European Space Agency (ESA), the hazard situation at the Safuna Alta lake is assessed by a combination of satellite radar data analysis, field investigations, and slope stability modeling. Interferometric analyses of the Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) of ALOS-1 Palsar-1, ALOS-2 Palsar-2 and Sentinel-1 data from 2016 reveal terrain displacements of 2 cm y-1 in the detachment zone of the 2002 rock avalanche. More detailed insights into the characteristics of these terrain deformations are gained by repeat surveys with differential GPS (DGPS) and tachymetric measurements. A drone flight provides the information for the generation of a high-resolution digital elevation model (DEM), which is used for the

  12. Ecuadorian antarctic act

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1998-02-01

    To develop research in this continent involves to take communion with earth where the cold pole of the planet is located, the stormiest sea of the world surround it and where the capricious continental and geographical distribution permits the pass of meteorological violent and continuous systems. The Ecuador, in execution of the acquired commitments like Full Member of the System of the Antarctic Treaty, carried out the VII Expedition to the White Continent with an extensive program of scientific investigation in the field of: Sciences of Life, Sciences of the Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, so much in the environment of the Pacific Southeast, the Drake Pass, Bransfield Strait and the nearby ecosystems antarctic to Point Fort William in the Greenwich Island, site where the Ecuadorian station Pedro Vicente Maldonado is located. The scientific articles, result of the fruitful work of national investigator is consigned in this fourth edition. This publication constitutes our contribution to the world in the knowledge, understanding and handling of the marvelous White Continent from the middle of our planet, Ecuador

  13. Basin-scale heterogeneity in Antarctic precipitation and its impact on surface mass variability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Fyke

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Annually averaged precipitation in the form of snow, the dominant term of the Antarctic Ice Sheet surface mass balance, displays large spatial and temporal variability. Here we present an analysis of spatial patterns of regional Antarctic precipitation variability and their impact on integrated Antarctic surface mass balance variability simulated as part of a preindustrial 1800-year global, fully coupled Community Earth System Model simulation. Correlation and composite analyses based on this output allow for a robust exploration of Antarctic precipitation variability. We identify statistically significant relationships between precipitation patterns across Antarctica that are corroborated by climate reanalyses, regional modeling and ice core records. These patterns are driven by variability in large-scale atmospheric moisture transport, which itself is characterized by decadal- to centennial-scale oscillations around the long-term mean. We suggest that this heterogeneity in Antarctic precipitation variability has a dampening effect on overall Antarctic surface mass balance variability, with implications for regulation of Antarctic-sourced sea level variability, detection of an emergent anthropogenic signal in Antarctic mass trends and identification of Antarctic mass loss accelerations.

  14. Investigating the Effect of Recruitment Variability on Length-Based Recruitment Indices for Antarctic Krill Using an Individual-Based Population Dynamics Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thanassekos, Stéphane; Cox, Martin J.; Reid, Keith

    2014-01-01

    Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba; herein krill) is monitored as part of an on-going fisheries observer program that collects length-frequency data. A krill feedback management programme is currently being developed, and as part of this development, the utility of data-derived indices describing population level processes is being assessed. To date, however, little work has been carried out on the selection of optimum recruitment indices and it has not been possible to assess the performance of length-based recruitment indices across a range of recruitment variability. Neither has there been an assessment of uncertainty in the relationship between an index and the actual level of recruitment. Thus, until now, it has not been possible to take into account recruitment index uncertainty in krill stock management or when investigating relationships between recruitment and environmental drivers. Using length-frequency samples from a simulated population – where recruitment is known – the performance of six potential length-based recruitment indices is assessed, by exploring the index-to-recruitment relationship under increasing levels of recruitment variability (from ±10% to ±100% around a mean annual recruitment). The annual minimum of the proportion of individuals smaller than 40 mm (F40 min, %) was selected because it had the most robust index-to-recruitment relationship across differing levels of recruitment variability. The relationship was curvilinear and best described by a power law. Model uncertainty was described using the 95% prediction intervals, which were used to calculate coverage probabilities and assess model performance. Despite being the optimum recruitment index, the performance of F40 min degraded under high (>50%) recruitment variability. Due to the persistence of cohorts in the population over several years, the inclusion of F40 min values from preceding years in the relationship used to estimate recruitment in a given year improved its

  15. Evaluating the response of Lake Prespa (SW Balkan) to future climate change projections from a high-resolution model

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Schriek, Tim; Varotsos, Konstantinos V.; Giannakopoulos, Christos

    2017-04-01

    The Mediterranean stands out globally due to its sensitivity to (future) climate change. Projections suggest that the Balkans will experience precipitation and runoff decreases of up to 30% by 2100. However, these projections show large regional spatial variability. Mediterranean lake-wetland systems are particularly threatened by projected climate changes that compound increasingly intensive human impacts (e.g. water extraction, drainage, pollution and dam-building). Protecting the remaining systems is extremely important for supporting global biodiversity. This protection should be based on a clear understanding of individual lake-wetland hydrological responses to future climate changes, which requires fine-resolution projections and a good understanding of the impact of hydro-climate variability on individual lakes. Climate change may directly affect lake level (variability), volume and water temperatures. In turn, these variables influence lake-ecology, habitats and water quality. Land-use intensification and water abstraction multiply these climate-driven changes. To date, there are no projections of future water level and -temperature of individual Mediterranean lakes under future climate scenarios. These are, however, of crucial importance to steer preservation strategies on the relevant catchment-scale. Here we present the first projections of water level and -temperature of the Prespa Lakes covering the period 2071-2100. These lakes are of global significance for biodiversity, and of great regional socio-economic importance as a water resource and tourist attraction. Impact projections are assessed by the Regional Climate Model RCA4 of the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI) driven by the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology global climate model MPI-ESM-LR under two RCP future emissions scenarios, the RCP4.5 and the RCP8.5, with the simulations carried out in the framework of EURO-CORDEX. Temperature, evapo(transpi)ration and

  16. Modeling glacier beds in the Austrian Alps: How many lakes will form in future?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koehler, Dominik; Geilhausen, Martin; Linsbauer, Andreas

    2014-05-01

    Glacial retreat exposes landscapes with relief characteristics greatly differing from the former ice covered surfaces. If glacial retreat exposes natural basins capable of forming proglacial lakes, then the downstream hydrologic and geomorphic systems in such catchments will be significantly altered due to discharge modifications, sediment trapping, decoupling effects and long term sediment storage (e.g. Geilhausen et al. 2013). Further implications are related to hydropower management, tourism and natural hazards. Consequently, sound knowledge of present day glacier beds ("proglacial zones of tomorrow") and in particular the total number, locations and characteristics of overdeepenings are of importance. For Austria, however, this important information about significant future changes of high alpine regions is yet missing. An interdisciplinary research project is currently in preparation to close this gap. This paper presents results of a pilot study. We used a novel GIS-based approach (GlabTop, cf. Linsbauer et al. 2012) to compute approximate glacier beds in the Austrian Alps. GlabTop ('Glacier bed Topography') is based on an empirical relation between average basal shear stress and elevation range of individual glaciers and makes use of digital elevation models (DEM), glacier outlines and branch lines (i.e. a set of lines covering all important glacier branches). DEMs and glacier outlines were derived from the Austrian glacier inventory (1998) and branch lines were manually digitized. The inventory includes 911 glaciers of which 876 (96%) were considered and 35 were excluded due to size restrictions ( 0.01 km²) with the potential of forming proglacial lakes when glacier retreat reveals the bed. The total area and volume of all overdeepenings is approx. 10 km² and 236 Mio m³ respectively and 33 lakes will be larger than 1 km³. A total glacier volume of 16 ± 5 km³ with an average ice thickness of 36 ± 11 m was calculated for 1998. Comparisons with

  17. Terrestrial Lava Lake Physical Parameter Estimation Using a Silicate Cooling Model - Implications for a Return to the Volcanic Moon, Io

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davies, Ashley

    2010-05-01

    Active lava lakes are open volcanic systems, where lava circulates between a magma chamber and the surface. Rare on Earth, lava lakes may be common on Io, the highly volcanic moon of Jupiter (see [1]). Lava lakes are important targets for future missions to Io [2, 3] as they provide excellent targets at which to measure lava eruption temperature (see [2] for other targets). With this in mind, hand-held infrared imagers were used to collect in-situ thermal emission data from the anorthoclase phonolite lava lake at Erebus volcano (Antarctica) in December 2005 [1, 3] and the basalt lava lake at Erta'Ale volcano (Ethiopia) in September 2009. These data have been analysed to establish surface temperature and area distributions and the integrated thermal emission spectra for each lava lake. These spectra have been used to test models developed for analysis of remote sensing data of lava lakes and lava flows on both Earth and Io, where no ground-truth exists. The silicate cooling model [4] assumes, for the lava lake model variant, that the existing surface crust has been created at a fixed rate. Model output consists of a synthesized thermal emission spectrum, estimate of surface age range, and a rate of surface crust area formation. The cooling model provides accurate reproductions of actual thermal spectra and the total emitting area to within a few percent of actual emitting area. Despite different composition lavas, the integrated thermal emission spectra from the two terrestrial lava lakes studied are very similar in shape, and, importantly, bear a striking similarity to spectra of Pele, a feature on Io that has been proposed to be a persistent, active lava lake [1]. The 2005 Erebus lava lake had an area of ~820 m2 and a measured surface temperature distribution of 1090 K to 575 K with a broad peak from 730 K to 850 K [5]. Total heat loss was estimated to be 23.5 MW [5]. The model fit yielded an area of ~820 m2, temperatures from 1475 K to 699 K, and an average

  18. RADARSAT: The Antarctic Mapping Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jezek, Kenneth C.; Lindstrom, E. (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    The first Antarctic Imaging Campaign (AIC) occurred during the period September 9, 1997 through October 20, 1997. The AIC utilized the unique attributes of the Canadian RADARSAT-1 to acquire the first, high-resolution, synthetic aperture imagery covering the entire Antarctic Continent. Although the primary goal of the mission was the acquisition of image data, the nearly flawless execution of the mission enabled additional collections of exact repeat orbit data. These data, covering an extensive portion of the interior Antarctic, potentially are suitable for interferometric analysis of topography and surface velocity. This document summarizes the Project through completion with delivery of products to the NASA DAACs.

  19. Satellite magnetic anomalies of the Antarctic crust

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. E. Alsdorf

    2000-06-01

    Full Text Available Spatially and temporally static crustal magnetic anomalies are contaminated by static core field effects above spherical harmonic degree 12 and dynamic, large-amplitude external fields. To extract crustal magnetic anomalies from the measurements of NASA's Magsat mission, we separate crustal signals from both core and external field effects. In particular, we define Magsat anomalies relative to the degree 11 field and use spectral correlation theory to reduce them for external field effects. We obtain a model of Antarctic crustal thickness by comparing the region's terrain gravity effects to free-air gravity anomalies derived from the Earth Gravity Model 1996 (EGM96. To separate core and crustal magnetic effects, we obtain the pseudo-magnetic effect of the crustal thickness variations from their gravity effect via Poisson's theorem for correlative potentials. We compare the pseudo-magnetic effect of the crustal thickness variations to field differences between degrees 11 and 13 by spectral correlation analysis. We thus identify and remove possible residual core field effects in the Magsat anomalies relative to the degree 11 core field. The resultant anomalies reflect possible Antarctic contrasts due both to crustal thickness and intracrustal variations of magnetization. In addition, they provide important constraints on the geologic interpretation of aeromagnetic survey data, such as are available for the Weddell Province. These crustal anomalies also may be used to correct for long wavelength errors in regional compilations of near-surface magnetic survey data. However, the validity of these applications is limited by the poor quality of the Antarctic Magsat data that were obtained during austral Summer and Fall when south polar external field activity was maximum. Hence an important test and supplement for the Antarctic crustal Magsat anomaly map will be provided by the data from the recently launched Ørsted mission, which will yield coverage

  20. Sea-level response to melting of Antarctic ice shelves on multi-centennial timescales with the fast Elementary Thermomechanical Ice Sheet model (f.ETISh v1.0

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Pattyn

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available The magnitude of the Antarctic ice sheet's contribution to global sea-level rise is dominated by the potential of its marine sectors to become unstable and collapse as a response to ocean (and atmospheric forcing. This paper presents Antarctic sea-level response to sudden atmospheric and oceanic forcings on multi-centennial timescales with the newly developed fast Elementary Thermomechanical Ice Sheet (f.ETISh model. The f.ETISh model is a vertically integrated hybrid ice sheet–ice shelf model with vertically integrated thermomechanical coupling, making the model two-dimensional. Its marine boundary is represented by two different flux conditions, coherent with power-law basal sliding and Coulomb basal friction. The model has been compared to existing benchmarks. Modelled Antarctic ice sheet response to forcing is dominated by sub-ice shelf melt and the sensitivity is highly dependent on basal conditions at the grounding line. Coulomb friction in the grounding-line transition zone leads to significantly higher mass loss in both West and East Antarctica on centennial timescales, leading to 1.5 m sea-level rise after 500 years for a limited melt scenario of 10 m a−1 under freely floating ice shelves, up to 6 m for a 50 m a−1 scenario. The higher sensitivity is attributed to higher ice fluxes at the grounding line due to vanishing effective pressure. Removing the ice shelves altogether results in a disintegration of the West Antarctic ice sheet and (partially marine basins in East Antarctica. After 500 years, this leads to a 5 m and a 16 m sea-level rise for the power-law basal sliding and Coulomb friction conditions at the grounding line, respectively. The latter value agrees with simulations by DeConto and Pollard (2016 over a similar period (but with different forcing and including processes of hydrofracturing and cliff failure. The chosen parametrizations make model results largely independent of spatial resolution so

  1. Sea-level response to melting of Antarctic ice shelves on multi-centennial timescales with the fast Elementary Thermomechanical Ice Sheet model (f.ETISh v1.0)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pattyn, Frank

    2017-08-01

    The magnitude of the Antarctic ice sheet's contribution to global sea-level rise is dominated by the potential of its marine sectors to become unstable and collapse as a response to ocean (and atmospheric) forcing. This paper presents Antarctic sea-level response to sudden atmospheric and oceanic forcings on multi-centennial timescales with the newly developed fast Elementary Thermomechanical Ice Sheet (f.ETISh) model. The f.ETISh model is a vertically integrated hybrid ice sheet-ice shelf model with vertically integrated thermomechanical coupling, making the model two-dimensional. Its marine boundary is represented by two different flux conditions, coherent with power-law basal sliding and Coulomb basal friction. The model has been compared to existing benchmarks. Modelled Antarctic ice sheet response to forcing is dominated by sub-ice shelf melt and the sensitivity is highly dependent on basal conditions at the grounding line. Coulomb friction in the grounding-line transition zone leads to significantly higher mass loss in both West and East Antarctica on centennial timescales, leading to 1.5 m sea-level rise after 500 years for a limited melt scenario of 10 m a-1 under freely floating ice shelves, up to 6 m for a 50 m a-1 scenario. The higher sensitivity is attributed to higher ice fluxes at the grounding line due to vanishing effective pressure. Removing the ice shelves altogether results in a disintegration of the West Antarctic ice sheet and (partially) marine basins in East Antarctica. After 500 years, this leads to a 5 m and a 16 m sea-level rise for the power-law basal sliding and Coulomb friction conditions at the grounding line, respectively. The latter value agrees with simulations by DeConto and Pollard (2016) over a similar period (but with different forcing and including processes of hydrofracturing and cliff failure). The chosen parametrizations make model results largely independent of spatial resolution so that f.ETISh can potentially be

  2. Postglacial uplift of the eastern Gulf of Finland-Lake Ladoga region: models and observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amantov, Aleksey; Fjeldskaar, Willy; Amantova, Marina

    2015-04-01

    The eastern Gulf of Finland - Lake Ladoga region - is at the peripheral part of the Fennoscandian post-glacial uplift. We compared different modeling results for this region with observations, including our revision of geomorphological traces of paleo shorelevel. As in many parts of the general Baltic-White Sea bedrock lowland at the margin of the Fennoscandian Shield, the bedrock landscape was modified by glaciers, but it was also the major controlling factor for the history of glacial grows and decays. First-order landforms of this segment are: Lake Ladoga-Lake Ilmen lowland, Lembolovo High of the Karelic Isthmus and Neva-Gulf of Finland lowland. The range of the bedrock topography is close to 350 m. The landforms reflect different glacial behavior during stadials, with fast movement and strong erosion in northern Ladoga, but passive motion and accumulation around Lembolovo High. The differences influenced the ice sheet and deglaciation history. The shore level displacements in this area are slightly different than westwards in the Baltic area; the shoreline tilts are usually lower in southern-central part of the eastern Gulf of Finland-lake Ladoga region. For example, the shoreline tilts at 11 600 BP in the Baltic Ice Lake in the south-east range from 0.55 to 0.31 m/km. The slope of the Ancylus shoreline varies from 0.12 to 0.18 m/km, increasing to almost the double in the north-western area. Similarly, the Littorina shore level is tilted only 0.08 m/km, rising to 0.14 m/km in the north-west. We have used this data in our high resolution modeling involving glacial isostasy, hydro isostasy, sediment isostasy, and gravity field changes. The mopdeling is based on Earth rheology model with a low-viscosity asthenosphere of thickness less than 150 km and viscosity less than 7.0x10**19 Pa s above a mantle of viscosity 10**21 Pa s, and an effective elastic lithosphere thickness of 30-40 km (flexural rigidity 10**24 Nm). The specific uplift features in the area are

  3. Levels, fluxes and time trends of persistent organic pollutants in Lake Thun, Switzerland: Combining trace analysis and multimedia modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bogdal, Christian; Scheringer, Martin; Schmid, Peter; Blaeuenstein, Markus; Kohler, Martin; Hungerbuehler, Konrad

    2010-01-01

    Levels, mass fluxes, and time trends of polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) in Lake Thun, a peri-Alpine lake, are investigated. We present measurements of PBDEs and PCBs in air, lake water, lake sediment, and tributary water. These measurements are combined with a multimedia fate model, based on site-specific environmental parameters from the lake catchment. Measured loadings of PBDEs and PCBs in air and tributaries were used to drive the model. The model satisfactorily reproduces PBDE and PCB congener patterns in water and sediment, but it tends to yield concentrations in water below the measurements and concentrations in sediment exceeding the measurements. A sensitivity analysis reveals that partitioning of PBDEs and PCBs between the aqueous dissolved phase and suspended particulate matter in the water column strongly affects the model results, in particular the concentrations in water and sediment. For lower-brominated PBDEs, approximately 70% and 30% of input into the lake stems from atmospheric deposition and from tributaries, respectively. For heavier PBDEs and all PCBs, rivers appear to deliver the major load (64-92%). Waste water effluents are of minor importance. 50-90% of the total input is buried in the permanent sediment. Sediment burial makes PBDEs and PCBs less available for recycling in the environment, and reduces concentrations in the outflowing river. If use of deca-BDE increases in the future, levels in Lake Thun will follow the same trend. If the use and resulting environmental emissions decrease, concentrations in water will rapidly decline, according to our calculations, while sediment levels will decrease at a considerably slower rate.

  4. Numerical modeling of a downwind-developing mesoscale convective system over the Masurian Lake District

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wójcik Damian K.

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Meteorological data concerning the severe convective system from the 21 August 2007 are analyzed in this study. Compiled information allows to understand the reason for the storm development and to identify its fundamental convective mode. Next, the EULAG model is utilized to perform an idealized test that shows a downwind–developing storm growth in an environment comparable to the one that was observed on the 21 August 2007 in the Masurian Lake District. Finally, the COSMO numerical weather prediction model is applied to reconstruct the storm development. The experiment is carried out for various computational grids having the horizontal grid length between 7.0 and 0.55 km. It turns out that the COSMO model is capable in simulating storms of that type. Since the model is used for operational weather forecasting in Poland the evaluation of this skill contributes to the increase of public safety.

  5. Parameterisation of sea and lake ice in numerical weather prediction models of the German Weather Service

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dmitrii Mironov

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available A bulk thermodynamic (no rheology sea-ice parameterisation scheme for use in numerical weather prediction (NWP is presented. The scheme is based on a self-similar parametric representation (assumed shape of the evolving temperature profile within the ice and on the integral heat budget of the ice slab. The scheme carries ordinary differential equations (in time for the ice surface temperature and the ice thickness. The proposed sea-ice scheme is implemented into the NWP models GME (global and COSMO (limited-area of the German Weather Service. In the present operational configuration, the horizontal distribution of the sea ice is governed by the data assimilation scheme, no fractional ice cover within the GME/COSMO grid box is considered, and the effect of snow above the ice is accounted for through an empirical temperature dependence of the ice surface albedo with respect to solar radiation. The lake ice is treated similarly to the sea ice, except that freeze-up and break-up of lakes occurs freely, independent of the data assimilation. The sea and lake ice schemes (the latter is a part of the fresh-water lake parameterisation scheme FLake show a satisfactory performance in GME and COSMO. The ice characteristics are not overly sensitive to the details of the treatment of heat transfer through the ice layer. This justifies the use of a simplified but computationally efficient bulk approach to model the ice thermodynamics in NWP, where the ice surface temperature is a major concern whereas details of the temperature distribution within the ice are of secondary importance. In contrast to the details of the heat transfer through the ice, the cloud cover is of decisive importance for the ice temperature as it controls the radiation energy budget at the ice surface. This is particularly true for winter, when the long-wave radiation dominates the surface energy budget. During summer, the surface energy budget is also sensitive to the grid-box mean ice

  6. Spatial-temporal variations in surface ozone over Ushuaia and the Antarctic region: observations from in situ measurements, satellite data, and global models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nadzir, Mohd Shahrul Mohd; Ashfold, Matthew J; Khan, Md Firoz; Robinson, Andrew D; Bolas, Conor; Latif, Mohd Talib; Wallis, Benjamin M; Mead, Mohammed Iqbal; Hamid, Haris Hafizal Abdul; Harris, Neil R P; Ramly, Zamzam Tuah Ahmad; Lai, Goh Thian; Liew, Ju Neng; Ahamad, Fatimah; Uning, Royston; Samah, Azizan Abu; Maulud, Khairul Nizam; Suparta, Wayan; Zainudin, Siti Khalijah; Wahab, Muhammad Ikram Abdul; Sahani, Mazrura; Müller, Moritz; Yeok, Foong Swee; Rahman, Nasaruddin Abdul; Mujahid, Aazani; Morris, Kenobi Isima; Sasso, Nicholas Dal

    2018-01-01

    The Antarctic continent is known to be an unpopulated region due to its extreme weather and climate conditions. However, the air quality over this continent can be affected by long-lived anthropogenic pollutants from the mainland. The Argentinian region of Ushuaia is often the main source area of accumulated hazardous gases over the Antarctic Peninsula. The main objective of this study is to report the first in situ observations yet known of surface ozone (O 3 ) over Ushuaia, the Drake Passage, and Coastal Antarctic Peninsula (CAP) on board the RV Australis during the Malaysian Antarctic Scientific Expedition Cruise 2016 (MASEC'16). Hourly O 3 data was measured continuously for 23 days using an EcoTech O 3 analyzer. To understand more about the distribution of surface O 3 over the Antarctic, we present the spatial and temporal of surface O 3 of long-term data (2009-2015) obtained online from the World Meteorology Organization of World Data Centre for greenhouse gases (WMO WDCGG). Furthermore, surface O 3 satellite data from the free online NOAA-Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) database and online data assimilation from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)-Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate (MACC) were used. The data from both online products are compared to document the data sets and to give an indication of its quality towards in situ data. Finally, we used past carbon monoxide (CO) data as a proxy of surface O 3 formation over Ushuaia and the Antarctic region. Our key findings were that the surface O 3 mixing ratio during MASEC'16 increased from a minimum of 5 ppb to ~ 10-13 ppb approaching the Drake Passage and the Coastal Antarctic Peninsula (CAP) region. The anthropogenic and biogenic O 3 precursors from Ushuaia and the marine region influenced the mixing ratio of surface O 3 over the Drake Passage and CAP region. The past data from WDCGG showed that the annual O 3 cycle has a maximum during the winter of 30 to 35

  7. Regional Climate Models as a Tool for Assessing Changes in the Laurentian Great Lakes Net Basin Supply

    Science.gov (United States)

    Music, B.; Mailhot, E.; Nadeau, D.; Irambona, C.; Frigon, A.

    2017-12-01

    Over the last decades, there has been growing concern about the effects of climate change on the Great Lakes water supply. Most of the modelling studies focusing on the Laurentian Great Lakes do not allow two-way exchanges of water and energy between the atmosphere and the underlying surface, and therefore do not account for important feedback mechanisms. Moreover, energy budget constraint at the land surface is not usually taken into account. To address this issue, several recent climate change studies used high resolution Regional Climate Models (RCMs) for evaluating changes in the hydrological regime of the Great Lakes. As RCMs operate on the concept of water and energy conservation, an internal consistency of the simulated energy and water budget components is assured. In this study we explore several recently generated Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulations to investigate the Great Lakes' Net Basin Supply (NBS) in a changing climate. These include simulations of the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5) supplemented by simulations from several others RCMs participating to the North American CORDEX project (CORDEX-NA). The analysis focuses on the NBS extreme values under nonstationary conditions. The results are expected to provide useful information to the industries in the Great Lakes that all need to include accurate climate change information in their long-term strategy plans to better anticipate impacts of low and/or high water levels.

  8. Introduction. Antarctic ecology: from genes to ecosystems. Part 2. Evolution, diversity and functional ecology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogers, Alex D; Murphy, Eugene J; Johnston, Nadine M; Clarke, Andrew

    2007-12-29

    The Antarctic biota has evolved over the last 100 million years in increasingly isolated and cold conditions. As a result, Antarctic species, from micro-organisms to vertebrates, have adapted to life at extremely low temperatures, including changes in the genome, physiology and ecological traits such as life history. Coupled with cycles of glaciation that have promoted speciation in the Antarctic, this has led to a unique biota in terms of biogeography, patterns of species distribution and endemism. Specialization in the Antarctic biota has led to trade-offs in many ecologically important functions and Antarctic species may have a limited capacity to adapt to present climate change. These include the direct effects of changes in environmental parameters and indirect effects of increased competition and predation resulting from altered life histories of Antarctic species and the impacts of invasive species. Ultimately, climate change may alter the responses of Antarctic ecosystems to harvesting from humans. The unique adaptations of Antarctic species mean that they provide unique models of molecular evolution in natural populations. The simplicity of Antarctic communities, especially from terrestrial systems, makes them ideal to investigate the ecological implications of climate change, which are difficult to identify in more complex systems.

  9. Seasonal patterns in growth, blood consumption, and effects on hosts by parasitic-phase sea lampreys in the Great Lakes: an individual-based model approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madenjian, Charles P.; Cochran, Philip A.; Bergstedt, Roger A.

    2003-01-01

    An individual-based model (IBM) was developed for sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus) populations in the Laurentian Great Lakes. The IBM was then calibrated to observed growth, by season, for sea lampreys in northern Lake Huron under two different water temperature regimes: a regime experienced by Seneca-strain lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) and a regime experienced by Marquettestrain lake trout. Modeling results indicated that seasonal blood consumption under the Seneca regime was very similar to that under the Marquette regime. Simulated mortality of lake trout directly due to blood removal by sea lampreys occurred at nearly twice the rate during August and September under the Marquette regime than under the Seneca regime. However, cumulative sea lamprey-induced mortality on lake trout over the entire duration of the sea lamprey's parasitic phase was only 7% higher for the Marquette regime compared with the Seneca regime. Thus, these modeling results indicated that the strain composition of the host (lake trout) population was not important in determining total number of lake trout deaths or total blood consumption attributable to the sea lamprey population, given the sea lamprey growth pattern. Regardless of water temperature regime, both blood consumption rate by sea lampreys and rate of sea lamprey-induced mortality on lake trout peaked in late October. Elevated blood consumption in late October appeared to be unrelated to changes in water temperature. The IBM approach should prove useful in optimizing control of sea lampreys in the Laurentian Great Lakes.

  10. MODELING WAVE-INDUCED ENTRAINMENT OF MUD IN NEWNANS LAKE, FLORIDA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Many shallow lakes in the southeastern US are eutrophic, and as such, the water quality in these lakes is of concern to state and federal environmental regulatory agencies. Some of these lakes have been classified as impaired with one or more nutrients being the stressor. For the...

  11. Specific activity and concentration model applied to cesium-137 movement in a eutrophic lake

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vanderploeg, H.A.; Booth, R.S.; Clark, F.H.

    1975-01-01

    A linear systems-analysis model which simulates time-dependent dynamics of specific activity and concentration of radiocesium in lake ecosystems was applied to a shallow, eutrophic lake that had received a pulse input of 137 Cs. Best estimates of transfer coefficients for abiotic compartments (sediment, interstitial water, and water) and macrophyte compartment which control mass balance of cesium in water were determined by tuning our initial estimates of the transfer coefficients to observed data on 137 Cs concentrations and contents of these compartments. In most cases, the optimized transfer coefficients of the abiotic compartments were not greatly different from our independently-derived initial estimates, and the simulations for optimized coefficients were close to those based on initial estimates. The simulations of 137 Cs concentration in water predicted by the optimized transfer coefficients were used to derive 137 Cs kinetics in biota other than macrophytes. In general, model simulations were close to concentrations observed in the biota. The agreement between 137 Cs concentrations and simulations in bottom invertebrates supported our assumption that bottom sediments are not a major source of Cs to the biota. (U.S.)

  12. Increased West Antarctic and unchanged East Antarctic ice discharge over the last 7 years

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gardner, Alex S.; Moholdt, Geir; Scambos, Ted; Fahnstock, Mark; Ligtenberg, Stefan; van den Broeke, Michiel; Nilsson, Johan

    2018-02-01

    Ice discharge from large ice sheets plays a direct role in determining rates of sea-level rise. We map present-day Antarctic-wide surface velocities using Landsat 7 and 8 imagery spanning 2013-2015 and compare to earlier estimates derived from synthetic aperture radar, revealing heterogeneous changes in ice flow since ˜ 2008. The new mapping provides complete coastal and inland coverage of ice velocity north of 82.4° S with a mean error of image pairs acquired during the daylight period. Using an optimized flux gate, ice discharge from Antarctica is 1929 ± 40 Gigatons per year (Gt yr-1) in 2015, an increase of 36 ± 15 Gt yr-1 from the time of the radar mapping. Flow accelerations across the grounding lines of West Antarctica's Amundsen Sea Embayment, Getz Ice Shelf and Marguerite Bay on the western Antarctic Peninsula, account for 88 % of this increase. In contrast, glaciers draining the East Antarctic Ice Sheet have been remarkably constant over the period of observation. Including modeled rates of snow accumulation and basal melt, the Antarctic ice sheet lost ice at an average rate of 183 ± 94 Gt yr-1 between 2008 and 2015. The modest increase in ice discharge over the past 7 years is contrasted by high rates of ice sheet mass loss and distinct spatial patters of elevation lowering. The West Antarctic Ice Sheet is experiencing high rates of mass loss and displays distinct patterns of elevation lowering that point to a dynamic imbalance. We find modest increase in ice discharge over the past 7 years, which suggests that the recent pattern of mass loss in Antarctica is part of a longer-term phase of enhanced glacier flow initiated in the decades leading up to the first continent-wide radar mapping of ice flow.

  13. Antarctic crabs: invasion or endurance?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huw J Griffiths

    Full Text Available Recent scientific interest following the "discovery" of lithodid crabs around Antarctica has centred on a hypothesis that these crabs might be poised to invade the Antarctic shelf if the recent warming trend continues, potentially decimating its native fauna. This "invasion hypothesis" suggests that decapod crabs were driven out of Antarctica 40-15 million years ago and are only now returning as "warm" enough habitats become available. The hypothesis is based on a geographically and spatially poor fossil record of a different group of crabs (Brachyura, and examination of relatively few Recent lithodid samples from the Antarctic slope. In this paper, we examine the existing lithodid fossil record and present the distribution and biogeographic patterns derived from over 16,000 records of Recent Southern Hemisphere crabs and lobsters. Globally, the lithodid fossil record consists of only two known specimens, neither of which comes from the Antarctic. Recent records show that 22 species of crabs and lobsters have been reported from the Southern Ocean, with 12 species found south of 60 °S. All are restricted to waters warmer than 0 °C, with their Antarctic distribution limited to the areas of seafloor dominated by Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW. Currently, CDW extends further and shallower onto the West Antarctic shelf than the known distribution ranges of most lithodid species examined. Geological evidence suggests that West Antarctic shelf could have been available for colonisation during the last 9,000 years. Distribution patterns, species richness, and levels of endemism all suggest that, rather than becoming extinct and recently re-invading from outside Antarctica, the lithodid crabs have likely persisted, and even radiated, on or near to Antarctic slope. We conclude there is no evidence for a modern-day "crab invasion". We recommend a repeated targeted lithodid sampling program along the West Antarctic shelf to fully test the validity of the

  14. A general approach to transform a lake model for one radionuclide (radiocesium) to another (radiostrontium) and critical model tests using data for four Ural lakes contaminated by the fallout from the Kyshtym accident in 1957

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Haakanson, Lars E-mail: lars.hakanson@natgeog.uu.se; Sazykina, Tatiana G.; Kryshev, Ivan I

    2002-07-01

    This paper presents results of a model test carried out within the framework of the COMETES project (EU). The aim of the work was to change the structure of the MOIRA lake model for radiocesium so that it can be applied more generally for, in principle, all types of radionuclides and heavy metals. This general lake model is used within the MOIRA decision support system (DSS; MOIRA and COMETES are acronyms for EU-projects). The model is based on a set of differential equations and a specific modelling structure. It incorporates all important fluxes to, from and within lakes in a general manner. Yet the model is driven by a minimum of variables accessible from standard maps and monitoring programs. The model can be separated into two parts, a general part with equations applicable for all types of water pollutants and a substance-specific part. This model has previously been validated for {sup 137}Cs from many lakes covering a wide domain and yielded excellent predictive power. The alterations discussed in this work are meant to be general and radiostrontium is used as a typical element. Radiostrontium is known to be more mobile than radiocesium and all abiotic parts of the model handling fixation and mobility have been altered. The new model for {sup 90}Sr has been critically tested using data from four lakes heavily contaminated with {sup 90}Sr from the Kyshtym accident in the Southern Urals, Russia, using empirical data from a period from 1958 to 1995 for {sup 90}Sr in fish (here goldfish), water and sediments.

  15. Spatial structures in the heat budget of the Antarctic Atmospheric Boundary Layer

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Berg, W.J.; van den Broeke, M.R.; van Meijgaard, E.

    2008-01-01

    Output from the regional climate model RACMO2/ANT is used to calculate the heat budget of the Antarctic atmospheric boundary layer (ABL). The main feature of the wintertime Antarctic ABL is a persistent temperature deficit compared to the free atmosphere. The magnitude of this deficit is controlled

  16. Evaluation of the lake model FLake over a coastal lagoon during the THAUMEX field campaign

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patrick Le Moigne

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available The THAUMEX measurement campaign, carried out during the summer of 2011 in Thau, a coastal lagoon in southern France, focused on episodes of marine breezes. During the campaign, three intensive observation periods (IOPs were conducted and a large amount of data were collected. Subsequently, standalone modelling using the FLake lake model was used, first to assess the surface temperature and the surface energy balance, and second to determine the energy budget of the water column at the measurement site. Surface fluxes were validated against in situ measurements, and it was determined that heat exchanges are dominated by evaporation. We also demonstrated that the model was sensitive to the light extinction coefficient at Thau, due to its shallowness and clarity nature. A heat balance was calculated, and the inclusion of a radiative temperature has improved it, especially by reducing the nocturnal evaporation. The FLake lake model was then evaluated in three-dimensional numerical simulations performed with the Meso-NH mesoscale model, in order to assess the changing structure of the boundary layer above the lagoon during the IOPs more accurately. We highlighted the first time ever when Meso-NH and FLake were coupled and proved the ability of the coupled system to forecast a complex phenomenon but also the importance of the use of the FLake model was pointed out. We demonstrated the impact of the lagoon and more precisely the Lido, a sandy strip of land between the lagoon and the Mediterranean Sea, on the vertical distribution of turbulent kinetic energy, evidence of the turbulence induced by the breeze. This study showed the complementarities between standalone and coupled simulations.

  17. Antarctic 1 km Digital Elevation Model (DEM) from Combined ERS-1 Radar and ICESat Laser Satellite Altimetry

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This data set provides a 1 km resolution Digital Elevation Model (DEM) of Antarctica. The DEM combines measurements from the European Remote Sensing Satellite-1...

  18. Paleoenvironmental inference models from sediment diatom assemblages in Baffin Island lakes (Nunavut, Canada) and reconstruction of summer water temperature

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Joynt, E. H. III; Wolfe, A. P. [Colorado Univ., Inst. of Arctic and Alpine Research, Boulder, CO (United States)

    2001-06-01

    Lake sediments are attractive repositories for paleoclimate proxy data because they are temporally continuous, undisturbed and datable. It is particularly true of lakes which are ubiquitous throughout the Arctic regions, enabling dense spatial coverage of sampling sites. In more recent times diatoms have been applied to a a variety of paleoenvironmental questions. However, these studies have been of limited usefulness because they lack a regional training set that would facilitate making quantitative paleoenvironmental inferences. This article provides this inferential tool, together with an example of its application. Conductivity, pH, summer lake water temperature, and mean annual air temperature have been identified as the significant controls over diatom assemblages from the surface sediments of 61 lakes on Baffin Island. Using weighted-averaging regression and calibration, predictive models for these parameters have been developed. Results show that the summer lake water temperature model provides realistic reconstructions when compared with other paleoenvironmental records. Over the past 5000 years the amplitude of reconstructed summer lake water temperature was found to be on the order of 4 degrees C, expressed primarily as progressive neoglacial cooling culminating in the Little Ice Age. Diatom-inferred summer water temperatures have increased by about 2 degrees C in the past 150 years, which is also in agreement with independent paleoclimatic reconstructions. The data obtained in this study complements similar efforts from the western Canadian Arctic and the northern reaches of Scandinavia, however, this is the first training set developed for lakes situated entirely north of the tree line. As such, it extends the applicability of diatoms for paleotemperature reconstructions well into the Arctic tundra biome. 45 refs., 1 tab., 10 figs., 1 appendix.

  19. Antarctic surface temperature and sea ice biases in coupled climate models linked with cloud and land surface properties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skiles, M.; Painter, T. H.; Marks, D. G.; Hedrick, A. R.

    2014-12-01

    Since 2013 the Airborne Snow Observatory (ASO) has been measuring spatial and temporal distribution of both snow water equivalent and snow albedo, the two most critical properties for understanding snowmelt runoff and timing, across key basins in the Western US. It is generally understood that net solar radiation (as controlled by variations in snow albedo and irradiance) provides the energy available for melt in almost all snow-covered environments. Until now, sparse measurements have restricted the ability to utilize measured net solar radiation in energy balance models, and current process simulations and model prediction of albedo evolution rely on oversimplifications of the processes. Data from ASO offers the unprecedented opportunity to utilize weekly measurements of spatially extensive spectral snow albedo to constrain and update snow albedo in a distributed snowmelt model for the first time. Here, we first investigate the sensitivity of the snow energy balance model SNOBAL to prescribed changes in snow albedo at two instrumented alpine catchments: at the point scale across 10 years at Senator Beck Basin Study Area in the San Juan Mountains, southwestern Colorado, and at the distributed scale across 25 years at Reynolds Creek Experimental Watershed, Idaho. We then compare distributed energy balance and snowmelt results across the ASO measurement record in the Tuolumne Basin in the Sierra Nevada Mountains, California, for model runs with and without integrated snow albedo from ASO.

  20. Contrasting Arctic and Antarctic atmospheric responses to future sea-ice loss

    Science.gov (United States)

    England, M.; Polvani, L. M.; Sun, L.

    2017-12-01

    By the end of this century, the annual mean Antarctic sea ice area is projected to decline by over a third, an amount similar to that in the Arctic, but the effect of Antarctic sea ice loss on the atmosphere remains largely unexplored. Using the Community Earth Systems Model (CESM) Whole Atmosphere Coupled Climate Model (WACCM), we investigate the effect of future Antarctic sea ice loss, and contrast it with its Arctic counterpart. This is accomplished by analyzing integrations of the model with historic and future sea ice levels, using the RCP8.5 scenario. This allows us to disentangle the effect of future sea ice loss on the atmosphere from other aspects of the coupled system. We find that both Antarctic and Arctic sea ice loss act to shift the tropospheric jet equatorwards, counteracting the poleward shift due to increases in greenhouse gases. Although the total forcing to the atmosphere is similar in both hemispheres, the response to Arctic sea ice loss is larger in amplitude and but more seasonally varying, while the response in the Antarctic persists throughout the year but with a smaller amplitude. Furthermore, the atmospheric temperature response over the Antarctic is trapped closer to the surface than in the Arctic, and perhaps surprisingly, we find that the surface temperature response to Antarctic sea ice loss is unable to penetrate the Antarctic continent.

  1. Dynamics Change of Honghu Lake's Water Surface Area and Its Driving Force Analysis Based on Remote Sensing Technique and TOPMODEL model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wen, X; Cao, B; Shen, S; Hu, D; Tang, X

    2014-01-01

    Honghu Lake is the largest freshwater lake in the Hubei Province of China. This paper introduces a remote sensing approach to monitor the lake's water surface area dynamics over the last 40 years by using multi-temporal remote sensing imagery including Landsat and HJ-1. Meanwhile, the daily precipitation and evaporation data provided by Honghu meteorological station since 1970s were also collected and used to analyze the influence of climate change factors. The typical situation for precipitation was selected as an input into the TOPMODEL model to simulate the hydrological process in Honghu Lake. The simulation result with the water surface area extracted from remote sensing imagery was analyzed. This experiment shows the precipitation and timing of precipitation effects changes in the lake with remote sensing data and it showed the potential of using TOPMODEL model to analyze the combined hydrological process in Honghu Lake

  2. Development of a model to assess masking potential for marine mammals by the use of air guns in Antarctic waters

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wittekind, Dietrich; Tougaard, Jakob; Stilz, Peter; Dähne, Michael; Clark, Christopher W.; Lucke, K.; Benda-Beckmann, von Sander; Ainslie, Michael A.; Siebert, Ursula

    2016-01-01

    We estimated the long-range effects of air gun array noise on marine mammal communication ranges in the Southern Ocean. Air gun impulses are subject to significant distortion during propagation, potentially resulting in a quasi- continuous sound. Propagation modeling to estimate the received

  3. Development of a model to assess masking potential for marine mammals by the use of air guns in Antarctic waters

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wittekind, D.; Tougaard, J.; Stilz, P.; Dähne, M.; Clark, C.W.; Lucke, K.; Benda-Beckmann, A.M. von; Ainslie, M.A.; Siebert, U.

    2016-01-01

    We estimated the long-range effects of air gun array noise on marine mammal communication ranges in the Southern Ocean. Air gun impulses are subject to significant distortion during propagation, potentially resulting in a quasi- continuous sound. Propagation modeling to estimate the received

  4. Effects of floodgates operation on nitrogen transformation in a lake based on structural equation modeling analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Longji; Zhou, Haixuan; Xie, Xinyu; Li, Xueke; Zhang, Duoying; Jia, Liming; Wei, Qingbin; Zhao, Yue; Wei, Zimin; Ma, Yingying

    2018-08-01

    Floodgates operation is one of the primary means of flood control in lake development. However, knowledge on the linkages between floodgates operation and nitrogen transformation during the flood season is limited. In this study, water samples from six sampling sites along Lake Xingkai watershed were collected before and after floodgates operation. The causal relationships between environmental factors, bacterioplankton community composition and nitrogen fractions were determined during flood season. We found that concentrations of nitrogen fractions decreased significantly when the floodgates were opened, while the concentrations of total nitrogen (TN) and NO 3 - increased when the floodgates had been shut for a period. Further, we proposed a possible mechanism that the influence of floodgates operation on nitrogen transformation was largely mediated through changes in dissolved organic matter, dissolved oxygen and bacterioplankton community composition as revealed by structural equation modeling (SEM). We conclude that floodgates operation has a high risk for future eutrophication of downstream watershed, although it can reduce nitrogen content temporarily. Therefore, the environmental impacts of floodgates operation should be carefully evaluated before the floodwaters were discharged into downstream watershed. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  5. Spatial dispersion modeling of 90Sr by point cumulative semivariogram at Keban Dam Lake, Turkey

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kuelahci, Fatih; Sen, Zekai

    2007-01-01

    Spatial analysis of 90 Sr artificial radionuclide in consequence of global fallout and Chernobyl nuclear accident has been carried out by using the point cumulative semivariogram (PCSV) technique based on 40 surface water station measurements in Keban Dam Lake during March, April, and May 2006. This technique is a convenient tool in obtaining the regional variability features around each sampling point, which yields the structural effects also in the vicinity of the same point. It presents the regional effect of all the other sites within the study area on the site concerned. In order to see to change of 90 Sr, the five models are constituted. Additionally, it provides a measure of cumulative similarity of the regional variable, 90 Sr, around any measurement site and hence it is possible to draw regional similarity maps at any desired distance around each station. In this paper, such similarity maps are also drawn for a set of distances. 90 Sr activities in lake that distance approximately 4.5 km from stations show the maximum similarity

  6. Decay model for biocide treatment of unballasted vessels: application for the Laurentian Great Lakes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sano, Larissa L; Bartell, Steven M; Landrum, Peter F

    2005-10-01

    A biocide decay model was developed to assess the potential efficacy and environmental impacts associated with using glutaraldehyde to treat unballasted overseas vessels trading on the Laurentian Great Lakes. The results of Monte Carlo simulations indicate that effective glutaraldehyde concentrations can be maintained for the duration of a vessel's oceanic transit (approximately 9-12 days): During this transit, glutaraldehyde concentrations were predicted to decrease by approximately 10% from initial treatment levels (e.g., 500 mgL(-1)). In terms of environmental impacts, mean glutaraldehyde concentrations released at Duluth-Superior Harbor, MN were predicted to be 100-fold lower than initial treatment concentrations, and ranged from 3.2 mgL(-1) (2 SD: 2.74) in April to 0.7 mgL(-1) (2 SD: 1.28) in August. Sensitivity analyses indicated that the re-ballasting dilution factor was the major variable governing final glutaraldehyde concentrations; however, lake surface temperatures became increasingly important during the warmer summer months.

  7. A Global Lake Ecological Observatory Network (GLEON) for synthesising high-frequency sensor data for validation of deterministic ecological models

    Science.gov (United States)

    David, Hamilton P; Carey, Cayelan C.; Arvola, Lauri; Arzberger, Peter; Brewer, Carol A.; Cole, Jon J; Gaiser, Evelyn; Hanson, Paul C.; Ibelings, Bas W; Jennings, Eleanor; Kratz, Tim K; Lin, Fang-Pang; McBride, Christopher G.; de Motta Marques, David; Muraoka, Kohji; Nishri, Ami; Qin, Boqiang; Read, Jordan S.; Rose, Kevin C.; Ryder, Elizabeth; Weathers, Kathleen C.; Zhu, Guangwei; Trolle, Dennis; Brookes, Justin D

    2014-01-01

    A Global Lake Ecological Observatory Network (GLEON; www.gleon.org) has formed to provide a coordinated response to the need for scientific understanding of lake processes, utilising technological advances available from autonomous sensors. The organisation embraces a grassroots approach to engage researchers from varying disciplines, sites spanning geographic and ecological gradients, and novel sensor and cyberinfrastructure to synthesise high-frequency lake data at scales ranging from local to global. The high-frequency data provide a platform to rigorously validate process- based ecological models because model simulation time steps are better aligned with sensor measurements than with lower-frequency, manual samples. Two case studies from Trout Bog, Wisconsin, USA, and Lake Rotoehu, North Island, New Zealand, are presented to demonstrate that in the past, ecological model outputs (e.g., temperature, chlorophyll) have been relatively poorly validated based on a limited number of directly comparable measurements, both in time and space. The case studies demonstrate some of the difficulties of mapping sensor measurements directly to model state variable outputs as well as the opportunities to use deviations between sensor measurements and model simulations to better inform process understanding. Well-validated ecological models provide a mechanism to extrapolate high-frequency sensor data in space and time, thereby potentially creating a fully 3-dimensional simulation of key variables of interest.

  8. A model approach to assess the long-term trends of indirect photochemistry in lake water. The case of Lake Maggiore (NW Italy).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minella, Marco; Rogora, Michela; Vione, Davide; Maurino, Valter; Minero, Claudio

    2011-08-15

    A model-based approach is here developed and applied to predict the long-term trends of indirect photochemical processes in the surface layer (5m water depth) of Lake Maggiore, NW Italy. For this lake, time series of the main parameters of photochemical importance that cover almost two decades are available. As a way to assess the relevant photochemical reactions, the modelled steady-state concentrations of important photogenerated transients ((•)OH, ³CDOM* and CO₃(-•)) were taken into account. A multivariate analysis approach was adopted to have an overview of the system, to emphasise relationships among chemical, photochemical and seasonal variables, and to highlight annual and long-term trends. Over the considered time period, because of the decrease of the dissolved organic carbon (DOC) content of water and of the increase of alkalinity, a significant increase is predicted for the steady-state concentrations of the radicals (•)OH and CO₃(-•). Therefore, the photochemical degradation processes that involve the two radical species would be enhanced. Another issue of potential photochemical importance is related to the winter maxima of nitrate (a photochemical (•)OH source) and the summer maxima of DOC ((•)OH sink and ³CDOM* source) in the lake water under consideration. From the combination of sunlight irradiance and chemical composition data, one predicts that the processes involving (•)OH and CO₃(-•) would be most important in spring, while the reactions involving ³CDOM* would be most important in summer. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. Multimedia fate modeling of perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) and perfluorooctane sulphonate (PFOS) in the shallow lake Chaohu, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kong, Xiangzhen; Liu, Wenxiu; He, Wei; Xu, Fuliu; Koelmans, Albert A; Mooij, Wolf M

    2018-06-01

    Freshwater shallow lake ecosystems provide valuable ecological services to human beings. However, these systems are subject to severe contamination from anthropogenic sources. Per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFASs), including perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) and perfluorooctane sulphonate (PFOS), are among the contaminants that have received substantial attention, primarily due to abundant applications, environment persistence, and potential threats to ecological and human health. Understanding the environmental behavior of these contaminants in shallow freshwater lake environments using a modeling approach is therefore critical. Here, we characterize the fate, transport and transformation of both PFOA and PFOS in the fifth largest freshwater lake in China (Chaohu) during a two-year period (2013-2015) using a fugacity-based multimedia fate model. A reasonable agreement between the measured and modeled concentrations in various compartments confirms the model's reliability. The model successfully quantifies the environmental processes and identifies the major sources and input pathways of PFOA and PFOS to the Chaohu water body. Sensitivity analysis reveals the critical role of nonlinear Freundlich sorption, which contributes to a variable fraction of the model true uncertainty in different compartments (8.1%-93.6%). Through additional model scenario analyses, we further elucidate the importance of nonlinear Freundlich sorption that is essential for the reliable model performance. We also reveal the distinct composition of emission sources for the two contaminants, as the major sources are indirect soil volatilization and direct release from human activities for PFOA and PFOS, respectively. The present study is expected to provide implications for local management of PFASs pollution in Lake Chaohu and to contribute to developing a general model framework for the evaluation of PFASs in shallow lakes. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. The Potsdam Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM-PIK – Part 2: Dynamic equilibrium simulation of the Antarctic ice sheet

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. A. Martin

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available We present a dynamic equilibrium simulation of the ice sheet-shelf system on Antarctica with the Potsdam Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM-PIK. The simulation is initialized with present-day conditions for bed topography and ice thickness and then run to steady state with constant present-day surface mass balance. Surface temperature and sub-shelf basal melt distribution are parameterized. Grounding lines and calving fronts are free to evolve, and their modeled equilibrium state is compared to observational data. A physically-motivated calving law based on horizontal spreading rates allows for realistic calving fronts for various types of shelves. Steady-state dynamics including surface velocity and ice flux are analyzed for whole Antarctica and the Ronne-Filchner and Ross ice shelf areas in particular. The results show that the different flow regimes in sheet and shelves, and the transition zone between them, are captured reasonably well, supporting the approach of superposition of SIA and SSA for the representation of fast motion of grounded ice. This approach also leads to a natural emergence of sliding-dominated flow in stream-like features in this new 3-D marine ice sheet model.

  11. The Potsdam Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM-PIK) - Part 2: Dynamic equilibrium simulation of the Antarctic ice sheet

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, M. A.; Winkelmann, R.; Haseloff, M.; Albrecht, T.; Bueler, E.; Khroulev, C.; Levermann, A.

    2011-09-01

    We present a dynamic equilibrium simulation of the ice sheet-shelf system on Antarctica with the Potsdam Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM-PIK). The simulation is initialized with present-day conditions for bed topography and ice thickness and then run to steady state with constant present-day surface mass balance. Surface temperature and sub-shelf basal melt distribution are parameterized. Grounding lines and calving fronts are free to evolve, and their modeled equilibrium state is compared to observational data. A physically-motivated calving law based on horizontal spreading rates allows for realistic calving fronts for various types of shelves. Steady-state dynamics including surface velocity and ice flux are analyzed for whole Antarctica and the Ronne-Filchner and Ross ice shelf areas in particular. The results show that the different flow regimes in sheet and shelves, and the transition zone between them, are captured reasonably well, supporting the approach of superposition of SIA and SSA for the representation of fast motion of grounded ice. This approach also leads to a natural emergence of sliding-dominated flow in stream-like features in this new 3-D marine ice sheet model.

  12. Modeling of temporal variation of very low frequency radio waves over long paths as observed from Indian Antarctic stations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sasmal, Sudipta; Basak, Tamal; Chakraborty, Suman; Palit, Sourav; Chakrabarti, Sandip K.

    2017-07-01

    Characteristics of very low frequency (VLF) signal depends on solar illumination across the propagation path. For a long path, solar zenith angle varies widely over the path and this has a significant influence on the propagation characteristics. To study the effect, Indian Centre for Space Physics participated in the 27th and 35th Scientific Expedition to Antarctica. VLF signals transmitted from the transmitters, namely, VTX (18.2 kHz), Vijayanarayanam, India, and NWC (19.8 kHz), North West Cape, Australia, were recorded simultaneously at Indian permanent stations Maitri and Bharati having respective geographic coordinates 70.75°S, 11.67°E, and 69.4°S, 76.17°E. A very stable diurnal variation of the signal has been obtained from both the stations. We reproduced the signal variations of VLF signal using solar zenith angle model coupled with long wavelength propagation capability (LWPC) code. We divided the whole path into several segments and computed the solar zenith angle (χ) profile. We assumed a linear relationship between the Wait's exponential model parameters effective reflection height (h'), steepness parameter (β), and solar zenith angle. The h' and β values were later used in the LWPC code to obtain the VLF signal amplitude at a particular time. The same procedure was repeated to obtain the whole day signal. Nature of the whole day signal variation from the theoretical modeling is also found to match with our observation to some extent.

  13. Environmental contamination in Antarctic ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bargagli, R

    2008-08-01

    Although the remote continent of Antarctica is perceived as the symbol of the last great wilderness, the human presence in the Southern Ocean and the continent began in the early 1900s for hunting, fishing and exploration, and many invasive plant and animal species have been deliberately introduced in several sub-Antarctic islands. Over the last 50 years, the development of research and tourism have locally affected terrestrial and marine coastal ecosystems through fuel combustion (for transportation and energy production), accidental oil spills, waste incineration and sewage. Although natural "barriers" such as oceanic and atmospheric circulation protect Antarctica from lower latitude water and air masses, available data on concentrations of metals, pesticides and other persistent pollutants in air, snow, mosses, lichens and marine organisms show that most persistent contaminants in the Antarctic environment are transported from other continents in the Southern Hemisphere. At present, levels of most contaminants in Antarctic organisms are lower than those in related species from other remote regions, except for the natural accumulation of Cd and Hg in several marine organisms and especially in albatrosses and petrels. The concentrations of organic pollutants in the eggs of an opportunistic top predator such as the south polar skua are close to those that may cause adverse health effects. Population growth and industrial development in several countries of the Southern Hemisphere are changing the global pattern of persistent anthropogenic contaminants and new classes of chemicals have already been detected in the Antarctic environment. Although the Protocol on Environmental Protection to the Antarctic Treaty provides strict guidelines for the protection of the Antarctic environment and establishes obligations for all human activity in the continent and the Southern Ocean, global warming, population growth and industrial development in countries of the Southern

  14. Developing and implementing the use of predictive models for estimating water quality at Great Lakes beaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Francy, Donna S.; Brady, Amie M.G.; Carvin, Rebecca B.; Corsi, Steven R.; Fuller, Lori M.; Harrison, John H.; Hayhurst, Brett A.; Lant, Jeremiah; Nevers, Meredith B.; Terrio, Paul J.; Zimmerman, Tammy M.

    2013-01-01

    Predictive models have been used at beaches to improve the timeliness and accuracy of recreational water-quality assessments over the most common current approach to water-quality monitoring, which relies on culturing fecal-indicator bacteria such as Escherichia coli (E. coli.). Beach-specific predictive models use environmental and water-quality variables that are easily and quickly measured as surrogates to estimate concentrations of fecal-indicator bacteria or to provide the probability that a State recreational water-quality standard will be exceeded. When predictive models are used for beach closure or advisory decisions, they are referred to as “nowcasts.” During the recreational seasons of 2010-12, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with 23 local and State agencies, worked to improve existing nowcasts at 4 beaches, validate predictive models at another 38 beaches, and collect data for predictive-model development at 7 beaches throughout the Great Lakes. This report summarizes efforts to collect data and develop predictive models by multiple agencies and to compile existing information on the beaches and beach-monitoring programs into one comprehensive report. Local agencies measured E. coli concentrations and variables expected to affect E. coli concentrations such as wave height, turbidity, water temperature, and numbers of birds at the time of sampling. In addition to these field measurements, equipment was installed by the USGS or local agencies at or near several beaches to collect water-quality and metrological measurements in near real time, including nearshore buoys, weather stations, and tributary staff gages and monitors. The USGS worked with local agencies to retrieve data from existing sources either manually or by use of tools designed specifically to compile and process data for predictive-model development. Predictive models were developed by use of linear regression and (or) partial least squares techniques for 42 beaches

  15. Antarctic climate change and the environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-11-01

    This volume provides a comprehensive, up-to-date account of how the physical and biological : environment of the Antarctic continent and Southern Ocean has changed from Deep Time until : the present day. It also considers how the Antarctic environmen...

  16. Reconstructing paleo-precipitation amounts using a terrestrial hydrologic model: Lake Titicaca and the Salar de Uyuni, Peru and Bolivia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nunnery, J. A.; Baker, P. A.; Coe, M. T.; Fritz, S. C.

    2010-12-01

    The Peruvian/Bolivian Altiplano has provided many information-rich records bearing on the history of the South American summer monsoon (SASM), a large-scale circulation system that is responsible for much of the precipitation over the Amazon basin and the southern tropics and subtropics. Examples of these paleoclimate time series include long, drill core records from Lake Titicaca (extending back to ca. 400 Ka, Fritz et al., 2007), the long drill core record from Salar de Uyuni (> 250 Ka, Baker et al., 2001; Fritz et al., 2004), paleo-lake level records from the Salar de Uyuni (e.g. Bills et al., 2004; Placzek et al, 2006); drill core records from the Rio Desaguadero valley (Rigsby et al., 2003), and ice core records from Quelccaya, Illimani, and Sajama (Thompson et al., 2000; Ramirez et al., 2003). Several previous studies using energy and water balance models have been applied to these records in attempts to provide quantitative constraints on paleo-temperature and paleo-precipitation (e.g. Kessler, 1984; Hastenrath and Kutzbach, 1985; Cross et al, 2001; Rowe and Dunbar, 2004; Arnold, 2002; Blodgett et al., 1997). For example, Blodgett et al. concluded that high paleolake stands in the Bolivian Altiplano, dated at ca. 16,000 cal. Yr BP (Bills et al., 1994) required precipitation 20% higher than modern at temperatures 5°C colder than modern. However, their model did not take into account the major overflow from Lake Titicaca. Using the THMB hydrologic model, we show that overflow from Lake Titicaca is necessary to produce and sustain large lakes in the Salar de Uyuni basin. This hydrological connection (via the Rio Desaguadero) between the northern and southern Altiplano likely was only established about 60,000 years ago. Prior to that, there were no sustained, large and deep paleolakes on the southern Altiplano. Rather, drill core evidence indicates a very long sequence of shallow, hypersaline lakes and playas.

  17. Modelling of soil depth and lake sediments. An application of the GeoEditor at the Forsmark site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vikstroem, Maria

    2005-02-01

    This report aims at describing the modelled soil depth according to three layers with different hydrogeological properties at the Forsmark site, based on available data from boreholes, observation points, seismic data and radar profiles. For the lakes in the area, the sediment has been modelled according to six layers of the most common deposits in the area. The peat layer at Stenroesmossen has also been visualized. The program used in the modelling of soil depths is the GeoEditor, which is an ArcView3.3-extension. The input data used in the model consist of 1,532 points based on seismic measurements, 31 profiles of interpreted ground penetrating radar data, 119 boreholes and 472 observation points. The western and south eastern part of the area has a low data density. In the southern parts the data density with respect to estimated bedrock elevation is low. Observation points in this area are generally not very deep and do not describe the actual bedrock elevation. They do, however, describe the minimum soil depth at each location. A detailed topographical DEM, bathymetry and map of Quaternary deposits were also used. The model is based on a three-layer-principle where each layer is assumed to have similar hydrological characteristics. The uppermost layer, Z1, is characterized by the impact from surface processes, roots and biological activity. The bottom layer, Z3, is characterized by contact with the bedrock. The middle layer, Z2, is assumed to have different hydraulic qualities than Z1 and Z3. The lake sediments have been modelled according to six classes of typical deposits. The modelled soil depths show a relatively high bedrock elevation and thus small total soil depth in the major part of the area. The median soil depth has been calculated to 1.9 m, based on model results in areas with higher data density. The maximum modelled soil depth is about 13 m, just north of Lake Stocksjoen. Generally, the sediment layers in the lakes of the area consists of a

  18. Increasingly, Data Availability Limits Model Predictive Capacity: the Western Lake Erie Basin, a Case Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Behrman, K. D.; Johnson, M. V. V.; Atwood, J. D.; Norfleet, M. L.

    2016-12-01

    Recent algal blooms in Western Lake Erie Basin (WLEB) have renewed scientific community's interest in developing process based models to better understand and predict the drivers of eutrophic conditions in the lake. At the same time, in order to prevent future blooms, farmers, local communities and policy makers are interested in developing spatially explicit nutrient and sediment management plans at various scales, from field to watershed. These interests have fueled several modeling exercises intended to locate "hotspots" in the basin where targeted adoption of additional agricultural conservation practices could provide the most benefit to water quality. The models have also been used to simulate various scenarios representing potential agricultural solutions. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and its sister model, the Agricultural Policy Environmental eXtender (APEX), have been used to simulate hydrology of interacting land uses in thousands of scientific studies around the world. High performance computing allows SWAT and APEX users to continue to improve and refine the model specificity to make predictions at small-spatial scales. Consequently, data inputs and calibration/validation data are now becoming the limiting factor to model performance. Water quality data for the tributaries and rivers that flow through WLEB is spatially and temporally limited. Land management data, including conservation practice and nutrient management data, are not publicly available at fine spatial and temporal scales. Here we show the data uncertainties associated with modeling WLEB croplands at a relatively large spatial scale (HUC-4) using site management data from over 1,000 farms collected by the Conservation Effects Assessment Project (CEAP). The error associated with downscaling this data to the HUC-8 and HUC-12 scale is shown. Simulations of spatially explicit dynamics can be very informative, but care must be taken when policy decisions are made based on models

  19. Numerical Simulation Of Hydrothermal Processes In Lake Drukshiai: 5. The Two-Phase Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vaitiekunas, P.; Saimardanova, J.; Markevicius, A. and other

    2004-01-01

    The state of two-phase 'liquid-gas' flow has been modeled numerically by the three-dimensional method of a complex research of heat and mass transfer. This allows examining the interaction of some transfer processes in a natural cooling basin (Lake Drukshiai): the power and direction of the wind, the variable density of the water, the heat conduction and heat transfer coefficients of the water-air interface. The combined effect of these natural actions determines the heat amount that the basin is able to dissipate to the surrounding atmospheric medium in thermal equilibrium (no change in the mean water temperature). This article presents a number of most widely used expressions for vertical and horizontal heat transfer coefficients. Basing on the stream velocity and mean temperature profiles measured in the cooling pond, as well as on then-time variations, suggestions are made that the mixing rate at the water surface is caused by the natural space-time variation of the wind and can be described by the value of the eddy viscosity coefficient - 1 m 2 /s (in numerical modeling 0.9-1.3 m 2 /s were used). The wind influence on the surface of the lake, according to the experimental data, is 1-3% of the mean wind velocity. The model is applied for a moderate wind, approximately 1-5 m/s of the mean wind velocity. A comparison of the experimental and numerical results showed a qualitative agreement. For a better quantitative approximation it is necessary to have more boundary conditions variable with time and to solve the unsteady set equations for transfer processes. (author)

  20. Integrated ecological and chemical food web accumulation modeling explains PAH temporal trends during regime shifts in a shallow lake.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kong, Xiangzhen; He, Wei; Qin, Ning; Liu, Wenxiu; Yang, Bin; Yang, Chen; Xu, Fuliu; Mooij, Wolf M; Koelmans, Albert A

    2017-08-01

    Shallow lakes can switch suddenly from a turbid situation with high concentrations of phytoplankton and other suspended solids to a vegetated state with clear water, and vice versa. These alternative stable states may have a substantial impact on the fate of hydrophobic organic compounds (HOCs). Models that are fit to simulate impacts from these complex interactions are scarce. We developed a contaminant fate model which is linked to an ecosystem model (PCLake) for shallow lakes. This integrated model was successful in simulating long-term dynamics (1953-2012) of representative polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in the main biotic and abiotic components in a large shallow lake (Chaohu in China), which has undergone regime shifts in this period. Historical records from sediment cores were used to evaluate the model. The model revealed that regime shifts in shallow lakes had a strong impact on the fate of less hydrophobic compounds due to the large storage capacity of macrophytes, which accumulated up to 55.6% of phenanthrene in the clear state. The abrupt disappearance of macrophytes after the regime shift resulted in a sudden change in phenanthrene distribution, as the sediment became the major sink. For more hydrophobic compounds such as benzo(a)pyrene, the modeled impact of the regime shift was negligible for the whole environment, yet large for biotic compartments. This study is the first to provide a full mechanistic analysis of the impact of regime shifts on the fate of PAHs in a real lake ecosystem. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Hydroclimatology of Lake Victoria region using hydrologic model and satellite remote sensing data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. I. Khan

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Study of hydro-climatology at a range of temporal scales is important in understanding and ultimately mitigating the potential severe impacts of hydrological extreme events such as floods and droughts. Using daily in-situ data over the last two decades combined with the recently available multiple-years satellite remote sensing data, we analyzed and simulated, with a distributed hydrologic model, the hydro-climatology in Nzoia, one of the major contributing sub-basins of Lake Victoria in the East African highlands. The basin, with a semi arid climate, has no sustained base flow contribution to Lake Victoria. The short spell of high discharge showed that rain is the prime cause of floods in the basin. There is only a marginal increase in annual mean discharge over the last 21 years. The 2-, 5- and 10- year peak discharges, for the entire study period showed that more years since the mid 1990's have had high peak discharges despite having relatively less annual rain. The study also presents the hydrologic model calibration and validation results over the Nzoia basin. The spatiotemporal variability of the water cycle components were quantified using a hydrologic model, with in-situ and multi-satellite remote sensing datasets. The model is calibrated using daily observed discharge data for the period between 1985 and 1999, for which model performance is estimated with a Nash Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSCE of 0.87 and 0.23% bias. The model validation showed an error metrics with NSCE of 0.65 and 1.04% bias. Moreover, the hydrologic capability of satellite precipitation (TRMM-3B42 V6 is evaluated. In terms of reconstruction of the water cycle components the spatial distribution and time series of modeling results for precipitation and runoff showed considerable agreement with the monthly model runoff estimates and gauge observations. Runoff values responded to precipitation events that occurred across the catchment during the wet season from March to

  2. Lake Morphometry for NHD Lakes in Tennessee Region 6 HUC

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — Lake morphometry metrics are known to influence productivity in lakes and are important for building various types of ecological and environmental models of lentic...

  3. Lake Morphometry for NHD Lakes in Ohio Region 5 HUC

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — Lake morphometry metrics are known to influence productivity in lakes and are important for building various types of ecological and environmental models of lentic...

  4. Lake Morphometry for NHD Lakes in California Region 18 HUC

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — Lake morphometry metrics are known to influence productivity in lakes and are important for building various types of ecological and environmental models of lentic...

  5. Mesoscale spiral vortex embedded within a Lake Michigan snow squall band - High resolution satellite observations and numerical model simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lyons, Walter A.; Keen, Cecil S.; Hjelmfelt, Mark; Pease, Steven R.

    1988-01-01

    It is known that Great Lakes snow squall convection occurs in a variety of different modes depending on various factors such as air-water temperature contrast, boundary-layer wind shear, and geostrophic wind direction. An exceptional and often neglected source of data for mesoscale cloud studies is the ultrahigh resolution multispectral data produced by Landsat satellites. On October 19, 1972, a clearly defined spiral vortex was noted in a Landsat-1 image near the southern end of Lake Michigan during an exceptionally early cold air outbreak over a still very warm lake. In a numerical simulation using a three-dimensional Eulerian hydrostatic primitive equation mesoscale model with an initially uniform wind field, a definite analog to the observed vortex was generated. This suggests that intense surface heating can be a principal cause in the development of a low-level mesoscale vortex.

  6. Evaluation of three energy balance-based evaporation models for estimating monthly evaporation for five lakes using derived heat storage changes from a hysteresis model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duan, Zheng; Bastiaanssen, W. G. M.

    2017-02-01

    The heat storage changes (Q t) can be a significant component of the energy balance in lakes, and it is important to account for Q t for reasonable estimation of evaporation at monthly and finer timescales if the energy balance-based evaporation models are used. However, Q t has been often neglected in many studies due to the lack of required water temperature data. A simple hysteresis model (Q t = a*Rn + b + c* dRn/dt) has been demonstrated to reasonably estimate Q t from the readily available net all wave radiation (Rn) and three locally calibrated coefficients (a-c) for lakes and reservoirs. As a follow-up study, we evaluated whether this hysteresis model could enable energy balance-based evaporation models to yield good evaporation estimates. The representative monthly evaporation data were compiled from published literature and used as ground-truth to evaluate three energy balance-based evaporation models for five lakes. The three models in different complexity are De Bruin-Keijman (DK), Penman, and a new model referred to as Duan-Bastiaanssen (DB). All three models require Q t as input. Each model was run in three scenarios differing in the input Q t (S1: measured Q t; S2: modelled Q t from the hysteresis model; S3: neglecting Q t) to evaluate the impact of Q t on the modelled evaporation. Evaluation showed that the modelled Q t agreed well with measured counterparts for all five lakes. It was confirmed that the hysteresis model with locally calibrated coefficients can predict Q t with good accuracy for the same lake. Using modelled Q t as inputs all three evaporation models yielded comparably good monthly evaporation to those using measured Q t as inputs and significantly better than those neglecting Q t for the five lakes. The DK model requiring minimum data generally performed the best, followed by the Penman and DB model. This study demonstrated that once three coefficients are locally calibrated using historical data the simple hysteresis model can offer

  7. Water-quality models to assess algal community dynamics, water quality, and fish habitat suitability for two agricultural land-use dominated lakes in Minnesota, 2014

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Erik A.; Kiesling, Richard L.; Ziegeweid, Jeffrey R.

    2017-07-20

    Fish habitat can degrade in many lakes due to summer blue-green algal blooms. Predictive models are needed to better manage and mitigate loss of fish habitat due to these changes. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources, developed predictive water-quality models for two agricultural land-use dominated lakes in Minnesota—Madison Lake and Pearl Lake, which are part of Minnesota’s sentinel lakes monitoring program—to assess algal community dynamics, water quality, and fish habitat suitability of these two lakes under recent (2014) meteorological conditions. The interaction of basin processes to these two lakes, through the delivery of nutrient loads, were simulated using CE-QUAL-W2, a carbon-based, laterally averaged, two-dimensional water-quality model that predicts distribution of temperature and oxygen from interactions between nutrient cycling, primary production, and trophic dynamics.The CE-QUAL-W2 models successfully predicted water temperature and dissolved oxygen on the basis of the two metrics of mean absolute error and root mean square error. For Madison Lake, the mean absolute error and root mean square error were 0.53 and 0.68 degree Celsius, respectively, for the vertical temperature profile comparisons; for Pearl Lake, the mean absolute error and root mean square error were 0.71 and 0.95 degree Celsius, respectively, for the vertical temperature profile comparisons. Temperature and dissolved oxygen were key metrics for calibration targets. These calibrated lake models also simulated algal community dynamics and water quality. The model simulations presented potential explanations for persistently large total phosphorus concentrations in Madison Lake, key differences in nutrient concentrations between these lakes, and summer blue-green algal bloom persistence.Fish habitat suitability simulations for cool-water and warm-water fish indicated that, in general, both lakes contained a large

  8. Evaluation of stream water quality data generated from MODIS images in modeling total suspended solid emission to a freshwater lake.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ayana, Essayas K; Worqlul, Abeyou W; Steenhuis, Tammo S

    2015-08-01

    Modeling of suspended sediment emission into freshwater lakes is challenging due to data gaps in developing countries. Existing models simulate sediment concentration at a gauging station upstream and none of these studies had modeled total suspended solids (TSS) emissions by inflowing rivers to freshwater lakes as there are no TSS measurements at the river mouth in the upper Blue Nile basin. In this study a 10year TSS time series data generated from remotely sensed MODIS/Terra images using established empirical relationship is applied to calibrate and validate a hydrology model for Lake Tana in Upper Blue Nile Basin. The result showed that at a monthly time scale TSS at the river mouth can be replicated with Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NS) of 0.34 for calibration and 0.21 for validation periods. Percent bias (PBIAS) and ratio of the root-mean-square error to the standard deviation of measured data (RSR) are all within range. Given the inaccessibility and costliness to measure TSS at river mouths to a lake the results found here are considered useful for suspended sediment budget studies in water bodies of the basin. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. Hydrologic and Water-Quality Characterization and Modeling of the Onondaga Lake Basin, Onondaga County, New York

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coon, William F.; Reddy, James E.

    2008-01-01

    Onondaga Lake in Onondaga County, New York, has been identified as one of the Nation?s most contaminated lakes as a result of industrial and sanitary-sewer discharges and stormwater nonpoint sources, and has received priority cleanup status under the national Water Resources Development Act of 1990. A basin-scale precipitation-runoff model of the Onondaga Lake basin was identified as a desirable water-resources management tool to better understand the processes responsible for the generation of loads of sediment and nutrients that are transported to Onondaga Lake. During 2003?07, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) developed a model based on the computer program, Hydrological Simulation Program?FORTRAN (HSPF), which simulated overland flow to, and streamflow in, the major tributaries of Onondaga Lake, and loads of sediment, phosphorus, and nitrogen transported to the lake. The simulation period extends from October 1997 through September 2003. The Onondaga Lake basin was divided into 107 subbasins and within these subbasins, the land area was apportioned among 19 pervious and impervious land types on the basis of land use and land cover, hydrologic soil group (HSG), and aspect. Precipitation data were available from three sources as input to the model. The model simulated streamflow, water temperature, concentrations of dissolved oxygen, and concentrations and loads of sediment, orthophosphate, total phosphorus, nitrate, ammonia, and organic nitrogen in the four major tributaries to Onondaga Lake?Onondaga Creek, Harbor Brook, Ley Creek, and Ninemile Creek. Simulated flows were calibrated to data from nine USGS streamflow-monitoring sites; simulated nutrient concentrations and loads were calibrated to data collected at six of the nine streamflow-monitoring sites. Water-quality samples were collected, processed, and analyzed by personnel from the Onondaga County Department of Water Environment Protection. Several time series of flow, and sediment and nutrient loads

  10. Mineralogy of new Antarctic achondrites with affinity to Lodran and a model of their evolution in an asteroid

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takeda, Hiroshi; Mori, Hiroshi; Hiroi, Takahiro; Saito, Jun

    1994-01-01

    We studied five new Antartic achondrites, MacAlpine Hills (MAC) 88177, Yamato (Y)74357, Y75274, Y791491 and Elephant Moraine (EET)84302 by mineralogical techniques to gain a better understanding of the mineral assemblages of a group of meteorites with an affinity to Lodran (stony-iron meteorite) and their formation processes. This group is being called lodranites. These meteorites contain major coarse-grained orthopyroxene (Opx) and olivine as in Lodran and variable amounts of FeNi metal and troilite etc. MAC88177 has more augite and less FeNi than Lodran; Y74357 has more olivine and contains minor augite; Y791491 contains in addition plagioclase. EET84302 has an Acapulco-like chondritic mineral assembladge and is enriched in FeNi metal and plagioclase, but one part is enriched in Opx and chromite. The EET84302 and MAC88177 Opx crystals have dusty cores as in Acapulco. EET84302 and Y75274 are more Mg-rich than other members of the lodranite group, and Y74357 is intermediate. Since these meteorites all have coarse-grained textures, similar major mineral assemblages, variable amounts of augite, plagioclase, FeNi metal, chromite and olivine, we suggest that they are related and are linked to a parent body with modified chondritic compositions. The variability of the abundances of these minerals are in line with a proposed model of the surface mineral assemblages of the S asteroids. The mineral assemblages can best be explained by differing degrees of loss or movements of lower temperature partial melts and recrystallization, and reduction. A portion of EET84302 rich in metal and plagioclase may represent a type of component removed from the lodranite group meteorites. Y791058 and Caddo County, which were studied for comparison, are plagioclase-rich silicate inclusions in IAB iron meteorites and may have been derived by similar process but in a different body.

  11. Flexural-response of the McMurdo Ice Shelf to surface lake filling and drainage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banwell, A. F.; MacAyeal, D. R.; Willis, I.; Macdonald, G. J.; Goodsell, B.

    2017-12-01

    Antarctic ice-shelf instability and break-up, as exhibited by the Larsen B ice shelf in 2002, remains one of the most difficult glaciological processes to observe directly. It is, however, vital to do so because ice-shelf breakup has the potential to influence the buttressing controls on inland ice discharge, and thus to affect sea level. Several mechanisms enabling Larsen B style breakup have previously been proposed, including the ability of surface lakes to introduce ice-shelf fractures when they fill and drain. During the austral summer of 2016/2017, we monitored the filling and draining of four surface lakes on the McMurdo Ice Shelf, Antarctica, and the effect of these processes on ice-shelf flexure. Water-depth data from pressure sensors reveal that two lakes filled to >2 m in depth and subsequently drained over multiple week timescales, which had a simultaneous effect on vertical ice deflection in the area. Differential GPS data from 12 receivers over three months show that vertical deflection varies as a function of distance from the maximum load change (i.e. at the lake centre). Using remote sensing techniques applied to both Landsat 8 and Worldview imagery, we also quantify the meltwater volume in these two lakes through the melt season, which, together with the vertical deflection data, are used to constrain key flexural parameter values in numerical models of ice-shelf flexure.

  12. Regulating Antarctic Tourism and the Precautionary Principle

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bastmeijer, C.J.; Roura, R.

    2004-01-01

    On the basis of an overview of the developments in Antarctic tourism since 1956, this current development note examines the issue of international regulation of Antarctic tourism. After discussing one of the main management issues in respect of Antarctic tourism ¿ the assessment and prevention of

  13. Hydrological regulation drives regime shifts: evidence from paleolimnology and ecosystem modeling of a large shallow Chinese lake.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kong, Xiangzhen; He, Qishuang; Yang, Bin; He, Wei; Xu, Fuliu; Janssen, Annette B G; Kuiper, Jan J; van Gerven, Luuk P A; Qin, Ning; Jiang, Yujiao; Liu, Wenxiu; Yang, Chen; Bai, Zelin; Zhang, Min; Kong, Fanxiang; Janse, Jan H; Mooij, Wolf M

    2017-02-01

    Quantitative evidence of sudden shifts in ecological structure and function in large shallow lakes is rare, even though they provide essential benefits to society. Such 'regime shifts' can be driven by human activities which degrade ecological stability including water level control (WLC) and nutrient loading. Interactions between WLC and nutrient loading on the long-term dynamics of shallow lake ecosystems are, however, often overlooked and largely underestimated, which has hampered the effectiveness of lake management. Here, we focus on a large shallow lake (Lake Chaohu) located in one of the most densely populated areas in China, the lower Yangtze River floodplain, which has undergone both WLC and increasing nutrient loading over the last several decades. We applied a novel methodology that combines consistent evidence from both paleolimnological records and ecosystem modeling to overcome the hurdle of data insufficiency and to unravel the drivers and underlying mechanisms in ecosystem dynamics. We identified the occurrence of two regime shifts: one in 1963, characterized by the abrupt disappearance of submerged vegetation, and another around 1980, with strong algal blooms being observed thereafter. Using model scenarios, we further disentangled the roles of WLC and nutrient loading, showing that the 1963 shift was predominantly triggered by WLC, whereas the shift ca. 1980 was attributed to aggravated nutrient loading. Our analysis also shows interactions between these two stressors. Compared to the dynamics driven by nutrient loading alone, WLC reduced the critical P loading and resulted in earlier disappearance of submerged vegetation and emergence of algal blooms by approximately 26 and 10 years, respectively. Overall, our study reveals the significant role of hydrological regulation in driving shallow lake ecosystem dynamics, and it highlights the urgency of using multi-objective management criteria that includes ecological sustainability perspectives when

  14. International Planning for Subglacial Lake Exploration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kennicutt, M.; Priscu, J.

    2003-04-01

    As one of the last unexplored frontiers on our planet, subglacial lakes offer a unique and exciting venue for exploration and research. Over the past several years, subglacial lakes have captured the imagination of the scientific community and public, evoking images of potential exotic life forms surviving under some of the most extreme conditions on earth. Various planning activities have recognized that due to the remote and harsh conditions, that a successful subglacial lake exploration program will entail a concerted effort for a number of years. It will also require an international commitment of major financial and human resources. To begin a detailed planning process, the Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research (SCAR) convened the Subglacial Antarctic Lake Exploration Group of Specialists (SALEGOS) in Tokyo in 2000. The group was asked to build on previous workshops and meetings to develop a plan to explore subglacial lake environments. Its mandate adopted the guiding principles as agreed in Cambridge in 1999 that the program would be interdisciplinary in scope, be designed for minimum contamination and disturbance of the subglacial lake environment, have as a goal lake entry and sample retrieval, and that the ultimate target of the program should be Lake Vostok exploration. Since its formation SALEGOS has met three times and addressed some of the more intractable issues related to subglacial lake exploration. Topics under discussion include current state-of-the-knowledge of subglacial environments, technological needs, international management and organizational strategies, a portfolio of scientific projects, "clean" requirements, and logistical considerations. In this presentation the actvities of SALEGOS will be summarized and recommendations for an international subglacial lake exploration program discussed.

  15. The late Cainozoic East Antarctic ice sheet

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Colhoun, E.A.

    1999-01-01

    A review, mainly of East Antarctic late Cainozoic (post 40 Ma) geological and geomorphological evidence, supports the hypothesis of the continuous presence of an ice sheet, of about the present size, since the late Miocene. Evidence is presented and the view advanced that, during the late Wisconsin maximum of isotope stage 2, ice was not nearly as thick or extensive over the continental shelf as required by the model of 'maximum' Antarctic glaciation. Some of the factors influencing the contribution of Antarctica to post-glacial sea-level rise are discussed. It is considered that Antarctica's contribution was probably considerably less than previously estimated. The dating of marine and freshwater sequences in the Vestfold and Bunger Hills is consistent with deglaciation around the Pleistocene Holocene boundary, after the Late Wisconsin maximum. A date of ∼25 ka BP from permafrost in the Larsemann Hills means that either the Larsemann Hills were not glaciated during the Late Wisconsin or the ice failed to erode much of the permafrost surface. The degree of weathering of rock and glacial drifts in the Vestfold, Larsemann and Bunger Hills suggests a long time for formation, perhaps considerably longer than indicated by the dated marine and freshwater sediment sequences. Cosmogenic isotope dating in the Vestfold Hills has provided equivocal ages for deglaciation. While the results could indicate deglaciation before 80 ka BP, they do not confirm such early deglaciation. If the ice cover was thin and failed to remove the previous rock exposure profile, then the assays could predate the last ice advance. Weathered iron crust fragments in the till suggest little erosion. The raised beaches of the oases are Holocene. Assuming they have been produced by post Late Wisconsin isostatic uplift and by the Holocene transgression, calculations show that the Antarctic continental ice sheet could not have been more than ∼500 m thicker in the inner shelf-coastal zone. The

  16. Improvement in precipitation-runoff model simulations by recalibration with basin-specific data, and subsequent model applications, Onondaga Lake Basin, Onondaga County, New York

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coon, William F.

    2011-01-01

    Water-resource managers in Onondaga County, New York, are faced with the challenge of improving the water quality of Onondaga Lake, which has the distinction of being one of the most contaminated lakes in the United States. To assist in this endeavor, during 2003-07 the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Onondaga Lake Partnership, developed a precipitation-runoff model of the 285-square-mile Onondaga Lake Basin with the computer program Hydrological Simulation Program-Fortran (HSPF). The model was intended to provide a tool whereby the processes responsible for the generation of loads of sediment and nutrients that are transported to Onondaga Lake could be better understood. This objective was only partly attained because data for calibration of the model were available from monitoring sites only at or near the mouths of the major tributaries to Onondaga Lake; no calibration data from headwater subbasins, where the loads originated, were available. To address this limitation and thereby decrease the uncertainty in the simulated results that were associated with headwater processes, the USGS conducted a 3-year (2005-08) basinwide study to assess the quality of surface water in the Onondaga Lake Basin. The study quantified the relative contributions of nonpoint sources associated with the major land uses and land covers in the basin and also monitored known sources and presumed sinks of sediment and nutrient loads, which previously had not been evaluated. The use of the newly acquired data to recalibrate the HSPF model resulted in improvements in the simulation of processes in the headwater subbasins, including suspended-sediment, orthophosphate, and phosphorus generation and transport.

  17. Water masses, ocean fronts, and the structure of Antarctic seabird communities: putting the eastern Bellingshausen Sea in perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ribic, Christine A.; Ainley, David G.; Ford, R. Glenn; Fraser, William R.; Tynan, Cynthia T.; Woehler, Eric J.

    2015-01-01

    Waters off the western Antarctic Peninsula (i.e., the eastern Bellingshausen Sea) are unusually complex owing to the convergence of several major fronts. Determining the relative influence of fronts on occurrence patterns of top-trophic species in that area, therefore, has been challenging. In one of the few ocean-wide seabird data syntheses, in this case for the Southern Ocean, we analyzed ample, previously collected cruise data, Antarctic-wide, to determine seabird species assemblages and quantitative relationships to fronts as a way to provide context to the long-term Palmer LTER and the winter Southern Ocean GLOBEC studies in the eastern Bellingshausen Sea. Fronts investigated during both winter (April–September) and summer (October–March) were the southern boundary of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC), which separates the High Antarctic from the Low Antarctic water mass, and within which are embedded the marginal ice zone and Antarctic Shelf Break Front; and the Antarctic Polar Front, which separates the Low Antarctic and the Subantarctic water masses. We used clustering to determine species' groupings with water masses, and generalized additive models to relate species' densities, biomass and diversity to distance to respective fronts. Antarctic-wide, in both periods, highest seabird densities and lowest species diversity were found in the High Antarctic water mass. In the eastern Bellingshausen, seabird density in the High Antarctic water mass was lower (as low as half that of winter) than found in other Antarctic regions. During winter, Antarctic-wide, two significant species groups were evident: one dominated by Adélie penguins (Pygoscelis adeliae) (High Antarctic water mass) and the other by petrels and prions (no differentiation among water masses); in eastern Bellingshausen waters during winter, the one significant species group was composed of species from both Antarctic-wide groups. In summer, Antarctic-wide, a High Antarctic group

  18. Assessing Potential Algal Blooms in a Shallow Fluvial Lake by Combining Hydrodynamic Modelling and Remote-Sensed Images

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Monica Pinardi

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Shallow fluvial lakes are dynamic ecosystems shaped by physical and biological factors and characterized by the coexistence of phytoplankton and macrophytes. Due to multiple interplaying factors, understanding the distribution of phytoplankton in fluvial lakes is a complex but fundamental issue, in the context of increasing eutrophication, climate change, and multiple water uses. We analyze the distribution of phytoplankton by combining remotely sensed maps of chlorophyll-a with a hydrodynamic model in a dammed fluvial lake (Mantua Superior Lake, Northern Italy. The numerical simulation of different conditions shows that the main hydrodynamic effects which influence algal distribution are related to the combined effect of advection due to wind forces and local currents, as well as to the presence of large gyres which induce recirculation and stagnation regions, favoring phytoplankton accumulation. Therefore, the general characters of the phytoplankton horizontal patchiness can be inferred from the results of the hydrodynamic model. Conversely, hyperspectral remote-sensing products can be used to validate this model, as they provide chlorophyll-a distribution maps. The integration of ecological, hydraulic, and remote-sensing techniques may therefore help the monitoring and protection of inland water quality, with important improvements in management actions by policy makers.

  19. Modeling spatial and temporal variations in temperature and salinity during stratification and overturn in Dexter Pit Lake, Tuscarora, Nevada, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balistrieri, L.S.; Tempel, R.N.; Stillings, L.L.; Shevenell, L.A.

    2006-01-01

    This paper examines the seasonal cycling of temperature and salinity in Dexter pit lake in arid northern Nevada, and describes an approach for modeling the physical processes that operate in such systems. The pit lake contains about 596,200 m3 of dilute, near neutral (pHs 6.7-9) water. Profiles of temperature, conductivity, and selected element concentrations were measured almost monthly during 1999 and 2000. In winter (January-March), the pit lake was covered with ice and bottom water was warmer (5.3 ??C) with higher total dissolved solids (0.298 g/L) than overlying water (3.96 ??C and 0.241 g/L), suggesting inflow of warm (11.7 ??C) groundwater with a higher conductivity than the lake (657 versus 126-383 ??S/cm). Seasonal surface inflow due to spring snowmelt resulted in lower conductivity in the surface water (232-247 ??S/cm) relative to deeper water (315-318 ??S/cm). The pit lake was thermally stratified from late spring through early fall, and the water column turned over in late November (2000) or early December (1999). The pit lake is a mixture of inflowing surface water and groundwater that has subsequently been evapoconcentrated in the arid environment. Linear relationships between conductivity and major and some minor (B, Li, Sr, and U) ions indicate conservative mixing for these elements. Similar changes in the elevations of the pit lake surface and nearby groundwater wells during the year suggest that the pit lake is a flow-through system. This observation and geochemical information were used to configure an one-dimensional hydrodynamics model (Dynamic Reservoir Simulation Model or DYRESM) that predicts seasonal changes in temperature and salinity based on the interplay of physical processes, including heating and cooling (solar insolation, long and short wave radiation, latent, and sensible heat), hydrologic flow (inflow and outflow by surface and ground water, pumping, evaporation, and precipitation), and transfers of momentum (wind stirring

  20. Modeling spatial and temporal variations in temperature and salinity during stratification and overturn in Dexter Pit Lake, Tuscarora, Nevada, USA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Balistrieri, Laurie S.; Tempel, Regina N.; Stillings, Lisa L.; Shevenell, Lisa A.

    2006-01-01

    This paper examines the seasonal cycling of temperature and salinity in Dexter pit lake in arid northern Nevada, and describes an approach for modeling the physical processes that operate in such systems. The pit lake contains about 596,200 m 3 of dilute, near neutral (pHs 6.7-9) water. Profiles of temperature, conductivity, and selected element concentrations were measured almost monthly during 1999 and 2000. In winter (January-March), the pit lake was covered with ice and bottom water was warmer (5.3 deg. C) with higher total dissolved solids (0.298 g/L) than overlying water (3.96 deg. C and 0.241 g/L), suggesting inflow of warm (11.7 deg. C) groundwater with a higher conductivity than the lake (657 versus 126-383 μS/cm). Seasonal surface inflow due to spring snowmelt resulted in lower conductivity in the surface water (232-247 μS/cm) relative to deeper water (315-318 μS/cm). The pit lake was thermally stratified from late spring through early fall, and the water column turned over in late November (2000) or early December (1999). The pit lake is a mixture of inflowing surface water and groundwater that has subsequently been evapoconcentrated in the arid environment. Linear relationships between conductivity and major and some minor (B, Li, Sr, and U) ions indicate conservative mixing for these elements. Similar changes in the elevations of the pit lake surface and nearby groundwater wells during the year suggest that the pit lake is a flow-through system. This observation and geochemical information were used to configure an one-dimensional hydrodynamics model (Dynamic Reservoir Simulation Model or DYRESM) that predicts seasonal changes in temperature and salinity based on the interplay of physical processes, including heating and cooling (solar insolation, long and short wave radiation, latent, and sensible heat), hydrologic flow (inflow and outflow by surface and ground water, pumping, evaporation, and precipitation), and transfers of momentum (wind

  1. Hydrological storage variations in a lake water balance, observed from multi-sensor satellite data and hydrological models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Alka; Seitz, Florian; Schwatke, Christian; Guentner, Andreas

    2013-04-01

    Freshwater lakes and reservoirs account for 74.5% of continental water storage in surface water bodies and only 1.8% resides in rivers. Lakes and reservoirs are a key component of the continental hydrological cycle but in-situ monitoring networks are very limited either because of sparse spatial distribution of gauges or national data policy. Monitoring and predicting extreme events is very challenging in that case. In this study we demonstrate the use of optical remote sensing, satellite altimetry and the GRACE gravity field mission to monitor the lake water storage variations in the Aral Sea. Aral Sea is one of the most unfortunate examples of a large anthropogenic catastrophe. The 4th largest lake of 1960s has been decertified for more than 75% of its area due to the diversion of its primary rivers for irrigation purposes. Our study is focused on the time frame of the GRACE mission; therefore we consider changes from 2002 onwards. Continuous monthly time series of water masks from Landsat satellite data and water level from altimetry missions were derived. Monthly volumetric variations of the lake water storage were computed by intersecting a digital elevation model of the lake with respective water mask and altimetry water level. With this approach we obtained volume from two independent remote sensing methods to reduce the error in the estimated volume through least square adjustment. The resultant variations were then compared with mass variability observed by GRACE. In addition, GARCE estimates of water storage variations were compared with simulation results of the Water Gap Hydrology Model (WGHM). The different observations from all missions agree that the lake reached an absolute minimum in autumn 2009. A marked reversal of the negative trend occured in 2010 but water storage in the lake decreased again afterwards. The results reveal that water storage variations in the Aral Sea are indeed the principal, but not the only contributor to the GRACE signal of

  2. Lake Morphometry for NHD Lakes in Great Lakes Region 4 HUC

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — Lake morphometry metrics are known to influence productivity in lakes and are important for building various types of ecological and environmental models of lentic...

  3. Natural resource damage assessment models for Great Lakes, coastal, and marine environments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    French, D.P.; Reed, M.

    1993-01-01

    A computer model of the physical fates, biological effects, and economic damages resulting from releases of oil and other hazardous materials has been developed by Applied Science Associates to be used in Type A natural resource damage assessments under the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act of 1980 (CERCLA). Natural resource damage assessment models for great lakes environments and for coastal and marine environments will become available. A coupled geographical information system allows gridded representation of complex coastal boundaries, variable bathymetry, shoreline types, and multiple biological habitats. The physical and biological models are three dimensional. Direct mortality from toxic concentrations and oiling, impacts of habitat loss, and food web losses are included in the model. Estimation of natural resource damages is based both on the lost value of injured resources and on the costs of restoring or replacing those resources. The models are implemented on a personal computer, with a VGA graphical user interface. Following public review, the models will become a formal part of the US regulatory framework. The models are programmed in a modular and generic fashion, to facilitate transportability and application to new areas. The model has several major components. Physical fates and biological effects submodels estimate impacts or injury resulting from a spill. The hydrodynamic submodel calculates currents that transport contaminant(s) or organisms. The compensable value submodel values injuries to help assess damages. The restoration submodel determines what restoration actions will most cost-effectively reduce injuries as measured by compensable values. Injury and restoration costs are assessed for each of a series of habitats (environments) affected by the spill. Environmental, chemical, and biological databases supply required information to the model for computing fates and effects (injury)

  4. A field studies and modeling approach to develop organochlorine pesticide and PCB total maximum daily load calculations: Case study for Echo Park Lake, Los Angeles, CA

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vasquez, V.R., E-mail: vrvasquez@ucla.edu [Environmental Science and Engineering Program, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA 90095-1496 (United States); Curren, J., E-mail: janecurren@yahoo.com [Environmental Science and Engineering Program, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA 90095-1496 (United States); Lau, S.-L., E-mail: simlin@ucla.edu [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA 90095-1496 (United States); Stenstrom, M.K., E-mail: stenstro@seas.ucla.edu [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA 90095-1496 (United States); Suffet, I.H., E-mail: msuffet@ucla.edu [Environmental Science and Engineering Program, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA 90095-1496 (United States)

    2011-09-01

    Echo Park Lake is a small lake in Los Angeles, CA listed on the USA Clean Water Act Section 303(d) list of impaired water bodies for elevated levels of organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) in fish tissue. A lake water and sediment sampling program was completed to support the development of total maximum daily loads (TMDL) to address the lake impairment. The field data indicated quantifiable levels of OCPs and PCBs in the sediments, but lake water data were all below detection levels. The field sediment data obtained may explain the contaminant levels in fish tissue using appropriate sediment-water partitioning coefficients and bioaccumulation factors. A partition-equilibrium fugacity model of the whole lake system was used to interpret the field data and indicated that half of the total mass of the pollutants in the system are in the sediments and the other half is in soil; therefore, soil erosion could be a significant pollutant transport mode into the lake. Modeling also indicated that developing and quantifying the TMDL depends significantly on the analytical detection level for the pollutants in field samples and on the choice of octanol-water partitioning coefficient and bioaccumulation factors for the model. - Research highlights: {yields} Fugacity model using new OCP and PCB field data supports lake TMDL calculations. {yields} OCP and PCB levels in lake sediment were found above levels for impairment. {yields} Relationship between sediment data and available fish tissue data evaluated. {yields} Model provides approximation of contaminant sources and sinks for a lake system. {yields} Model results were sensitive to analytical detection and quantification levels.

  5. Executive summary - Assessing the response of Emerald Lake, an alpine watershed in Sequoia National Park, California, to acidification during snowmelt using a simple hydrochemical model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hooper, R.P.; West, C.T.; Peters, N.E.

    1990-01-01

    A simple process-oriented model, called the Alpine Lake Forecaster (ALF), was constructed using data collected from the Integrated Watershed Study of Emerald Lake, Sequoia National Park, California. ALF is able to capture the basic solute patterns during snowmelt in this alpine catchment where groundwater is a minor contributor to streamflow. It includes an empirical representation of primary mineral weathering as the only alkalinity generating mechanism. During a heavy snow year, such as the one used for calibrating the model, the model accurately simulated the surface water chemical change in response to the initial ionic pulse from the snowpack and to the dilution that occurs at peak snowmelt. Because the model does not consider cation exchange, it over-predicts the acidification during the initial period of snowmelt, and therefore is a conservative predictor. However, the minimum alkalinity observed in the main inflows to Emerald Lake and in the lake outflow is accurately simulated by the model. The representation of the lake as simply a missing volume with no additional chemical reactions is supported by the observation. The model predicts a change of 2 to 5 microequiv/L in the minimum alkalinity of the lake outflow during snowmelt if the deposition would have to increase between two and 18 times the current load-alkalinity of the lake; the precise increase depends on hydrologic conditions and on the pattern of solute release from the snowpack. An acidic rainstorm that exhausted the alkalinity of the lake was observed during summer 1984 after the lake had stratified, and is the likely cause of the acidification of Emerald Lake

  6. Inclusive business model in tapioca starch industry in Lake Toba area: a case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tampubolon, S.; Manik, Y.

    2018-04-01

    The notion of inclusive business calls for additional focus and innovation in the way companies do business which seeks to contribute to poverty alleviation by including Bottom of the Pyramids (BoP) communities within its value chain while not losing sight of the ultimate goal of business. Lake Toba Area has potentials in providing chances for doing businesses. On the other hand, the growth of market size is rather slow and demographically still dominated by BoP. This is a case study which seeks to investigate to what extent the Inclusive Business Model (IBM) is adopted in the strategic planning and applied in the operational management of companies that operate in Lake Toba Area. The study was conducted in qualitative basis. The observation was conducted by gathering data and information through a series of interviews with the top management and desk study of the business plan in a tapioca starch industry in Toba Samosir Regency. The collected data and information were then analyzed qualitatively by comparing them with criteria and parameters of IBM suggested in a vast body of literature. The reference by which the IBM is referred in this study is a series of criteria which is synthesized from a literature review on a vast body of literature about IBM. From data analysis, it is evident that IBM has been incorporated in the strategic plan and applied in the operational activities of the object of this study. However, we also found some rooms for improvement such as expanding the involvement of BoP in their value chain as consumers, by which some innovation in the product diversification is required.

  7. Modeling thermal structure, ice cover regime and sensitivity to climate change of two regulated lakes - a Norwegian case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gebre, Solomon; Boissy, Thibault; Alfredsen, Knut

    2013-04-01

    A great number of river and lakes in Norway and the Nordic region at large are regulated for water management such as hydropower production. Such regulations have the potential to alter the thermal and hydrological regimes in the lakes and rivers downstream impacting on river environment and ecology. Anticipated changes as a result of climate change in meteorological forcing data such as air temperature and precipitation cause changes in the water balance, water temperature and ice cover duration in the reservoirs. This may necessitate changes in operational rules as part of an adaptation strategy for the future. In this study, a one dimensional (1D) lake thermodynamic and ice cover model (MyLake) has been modified to take into account the effect of dynamic outflows in reservoirs and applied to two small but relatively deep regulated lakes (reservoirs) in Norway (Follsjøen and Tesse). The objective was to assess climate change impacts on the seasonal thermal characteristics, the withdrawal temperatures, and the reservoir ice cover dynamics with current operational regimes. The model solves the vertical energy balance on a daily time-step driven by meteorological and hydrological forcings: 2m air temperature, precipitation, 2m relative humidity, 10m wind speed, cloud cover, air pressure, solar insolation, inflow volume, inflow temperature and reservoir outflows. Model calibration with multi-seasonal data of temperature profiles showed that the model performed well in simulating the vertical water temperature profiles for the two study reservoirs. The withdrawal temperatures were also simulated reasonably well. The comparison between observed and simulated lake ice phenology (which were available only for one of the reservoirs - Tesse) was also reasonable taking into account the uncertainty in the observational data. After model testing and calibration, the model was then used to simulate expected changes in the future (2080s) due to climate change by considering

  8. SWAT modeling of Critical Source Area for Runoff and Phosphorus losses: Lake Champlain Basin, VT

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lake Champlain, located between Vermont, New York, and Quebec, exhibits eutrophication due to continuing phosphorus (P) inputs mainly from upstream nonpoint source areas. To address the Lake's eutrophication problem and as part of total maximum daily load (TMDL) requirements, a state-level P reducti...

  9. Modeling erosion and accretion along the Illinois Lake Michigan shore using integrated airborne, waterborne and ground-based method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mwakanyamale, K. E.; Brown, S.; Larson, T. H.; Theuerkauf, E.; Ntarlagiannis, D.; Phillips, A.; Anderson, A.

    2017-12-01

    Sediment distribution at the Illinois Lake Michigan shoreline is constantly changing in response to increased human activities and complex natural coastal processes associated with wave action, short and long term fluctuations in lake level, and the influence of coastal ice. Understanding changes to volume, distribution and thickness of sand along the shore through time, is essential for modeling shoreline changes and predicting changes due to extreme weather events and lake-level fluctuation. The use of helicopter transient electromagnetic (HTEM) method and integration with ground-based and waterborne geophysical and geologic methods provides high resolution spatial rich data required for modeling the extent of erosion and accretion at this dynamic coastal system. Analysis and interpretation of HTEM, ground and waterborne geophysical and geological data identify spatial distribution and thickness of beach and lake-bottom sand. The results provide information on existence of littoral sand deposits and identify coastal hazards such as lakebed down-cutting that occurs in sand-starved areas.

  10. The water balance of the urban Salt Lake Valley: a multiple-box model validated by observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stwertka, C.; Strong, C.

    2012-12-01

    A main focus of the recently awarded National Science Foundation (NSF) EPSCoR Track-1 research project "innovative Urban Transitions and Arid-region Hydro-sustainability (iUTAH)" is to quantify the primary components of the water balance for the Wasatch region, and to evaluate their sensitivity to climate change and projected urban development. Building on the multiple-box model that we developed and validated for carbon dioxide (Strong et al 2011), mass balance equations for water in the atmosphere and surface are incorporated into the modeling framework. The model is used to determine how surface fluxes, ground-water transport, biological fluxes, and meteorological processes regulate water cycling within and around the urban Salt Lake Valley. The model is used to evaluate the hypotheses that increased water demand associated with urban growth in Salt Lake Valley will (1) elevate sensitivity to projected climate variability and (2) motivate more attentive management of urban water use and evaporative fluxes.

  11. Assessment of evolution and risks of glacier lake outbursts in the Djungarskiy Alatau, Central Asia, using Landsat imagery and glacier bed topography modelling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Kapitsa

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Changes in the abundance and area of mountain lakes in the Djungarskiy (Jetysu Alatau between 2002 and 2014 were investigated using Landsat imagery. The number of lakes increased by 6.2 % from 599 to 636 with a growth rate of 0.51 % a−1. The combined areas were 16.26 ± 0.85 to 17.35 ± 0.92 km2 respectively and the overall change was within the uncertainty of measurements. Fifty lakes, whose potential outburst can damage existing infrastructure, were identified. The glacier bed topography version 2 (GlabTop2 model was applied to simulate ice thickness and subglacial topography using glacier outlines for 2000 and SRTM DEM (Shuttle Radar Topography Mission digital elevation model as input data achieving realistic patterns of ice thickness. A total of 513 overdeepenings in the modelled glacier beds, presenting potential sites for the development of lakes, were identified with a combined area of 14.7 km2. Morphometric parameters of the modelled overdeepenings were close to those of the existing lakes. A comparison of locations of the overdeepenings and newly formed lakes in the areas de-glacierized in 2000–2014 showed that 67 % of the lakes developed at the sites of the overdeepenings. The rates of increase in areas of new lakes correlated with areas of modelled overdeepenings. Locations where hazardous lakes may develop in the future were identified. The GlabTop2 approach is shown to be a useful tool in hazard management providing data on the potential evolution of future lakes.

  12. Detection and Modeling of a Meteotsunami in Lake Erie During a High Wind Event on May 27, 2012

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, E. J.; Schwab, D. J.; Lombardy, K. A.; LaPlante, R. E.

    2012-12-01

    On May 27, 2012, a mesoscale convective system moved southeast across the central basin of Lake Erie (the shallowest of the Great Lakes) causing an increase in surface wind speed from 3 to 15 m/s over a few minutes. Although no significant pressure change was observed during this period (+1 mbar), the storm resulted in 3 reported edge waves on the southern shore (5 minutes apart), with wave heights up to 7 feet (2.13 m). Witnesses along the coast reported that the water receded before the waves hit, the only warning of the impending danger. After impact on the southern shore, several individuals were stranded in the water near Cleveland, Ohio. Fortunately, there were no fatalities or serious injury as a result of the edge waves. The storm event yielded two separate but similar squall line events that impacted the southern shore of Lake Erie several hours apart. The first event had little impact on nearshore conditions, however, the second event (moving south-eastward at 21.1 m/s or 41 knots), resulted in 7 ft waves near Cleveland as reported above. The thunderstorms generated three closely packed outflow boundaries that intersected the southern shore of Lake Erie between 1700 and 1730 UTC. The outflow boundaries were followed by a stronger outflow at 1800 UTC. Radial velocities on the WSR-88D in Cleveland, Ohio indicated the winds were stronger in the second outflow boundary. The radar indicated winds between 20.6 and 24.7 m/s (40 and 48 knots) within 240 meters (800 feet) above ground level. In order to better understand the storm event and the cause of the waves that impacted the southern shore, a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model of Lake Erie has been developed using the Finite Volume Coastal Ocean Model (FVCOM). The model is being developed as part of the Great Lakes Coastal Forecasting (GLCFS), a set of experimental real-time pre-operational hydrodynamic models run at the NOAA Great Lakes Research Laboratory that forecast currents, waves, temperature, and

  13. [Distribution of bacteria of Methylobacterium genus in the terrestrial biotopes of the Antarctic region].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romanovskaia, V A; Rokitko, P V; Shilin, S O; Chernaia, N A; Tashirev, A B

    2009-01-01

    Methylotrophs distribution has been studied in the terrestrial biotopes (moss, lichen, grass, soil, sludge of lakes) on the islands of Galindez, Barkhans, Irizar, Uruguay, Jalour, Petermann, Berthelot, Cruls, King George, Corner, Skua located in the Pacific sector of the Antarctic Region, as well as in analogous biotopes on the western shore of the Antarctic peninsula Basing on a complex of diagnosis features the isolated pink-pigmented strains, which facultatively use methanol and realize the serine cycle of assimilation of one-carbon compounds, are attributed to Methylobacterium genus. Methylobacterium strains occur more often in mosses, grass Deschampsia antarctica and lichens, than in the soil and lake sludge. Some regions ofAntarctica are comparable by the number of Methylobacterium cells with the same in the regions with moderate climate. An analysis of gene sequences 16S rRNA of the Antarctic methylobacteria with those of GenBank has shown a high extent of similarity with Methylobacterium extorquens (99.4-99.7%). Notwithstanding that the strains of Methylobacterium are resistant to the broad range of extreme factors (gamma-irradiation, UV-irradiation, dehydration), the Antarctic and collection strains of the genus were sensitive to the ions of such heavy metals as Cu, Hg, Cd, Cr (10 mg/l).

  14. Antarctic Lithosphere Studies: Progress, Problems and Promise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dalziel, I. W. D.; Wilson, T. J.

    2017-12-01

    In the sixty years since the International Geophysical Year, studies of the Antarctic lithosphere have progressed from basic geological observations and sparse geophysical measurements to continental-scale datasets of radiometric dates, ice thickness, bedrock topography and characteristics, seismic imaging and potential fields. These have been augmented by data from increasingly dense broadband seismic and geodetic networks. The Antarctic lithosphere is known to have been an integral part, indeed a "keystone" of the Pangea ( 250-185Ma) and Gondwanaland ( 540-180 Ma) supercontinents. It is widely believed to have been part of hypothetical earlier supercontinents Rodinia ( 1.0-0.75 Ga) and Columbia (Nuna) ( 2.0-1.5 Ga). Despite the paucity of exposure in East Antarctica, the new potential field datasets have emboldened workers to extrapolate Precambrian geological provinces and structures from neighboring continents into Antarctica. Hence models of the configuration of Columbia and its evolution into Rodinia and Gondwana have been proposed, and rift-flank uplift superimposed on a Proterozoic orogenic root has been hypothesized to explain the Gamburtsev Subglacial Mountains. Mesozoic-Cenozoic rifting has imparted a strong imprint on the West Antarctic lithosphere. Seismic tomographic evidence reveals lateral variation in lithospheric thickness, with the thinnest zones within the West Antarctic rift system and underlying the Amundsen Sea Embayment. Upper mantle low velocity zones are extensive, with a deeper mantle velocity anomaly underlying Marie Byrd Land marking a possible mantle plume. Misfits between crustal motions measured by GPS and GIA model predictions can, in part, be linked with the changes in lithosphere thickness and mantle rheology. Unusually high uplift rates measured by GPS in the Amundsen region can be interpreted as the response of regions with thin lithosphere and weak mantle to late Holocene ice mass loss. Horizontal displacements across the TAM

  15. Predicting the Water Level Fluctuation in an Alpine Lake Using Physically Based, Artificial Neural Network, and Time Series Forecasting Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chih-Chieh Young

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Accurate prediction of water level fluctuation is important in lake management due to its significant impacts in various aspects. This study utilizes four model approaches to predict water levels in the Yuan-Yang Lake (YYL in Taiwan: a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model, an artificial neural network (ANN model (back propagation neural network, BPNN, a time series forecasting (autoregressive moving average with exogenous inputs, ARMAX model, and a combined hydrodynamic and ANN model. Particularly, the black-box ANN model and physically based hydrodynamic model are coupled to more accurately predict water level fluctuation. Hourly water level data (a total of 7296 observations was collected for model calibration (training and validation. Three statistical indicators (mean absolute error, root mean square error, and coefficient of correlation were adopted to evaluate model performances. Overall, the results demonstrate that the hydrodynamic model can satisfactorily predict hourly water level changes during the calibration stage but not for the validation stage. The ANN and ARMAX models better predict the water level than the hydrodynamic model does. Meanwhile, the results from an ANN model are superior to those by the ARMAX model in both training and validation phases. The novel proposed concept using a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model in conjunction with an ANN model has clearly shown the improved prediction accuracy for the water level fluctuation.

  16. Hydrologic characterization for Spring Creek and hydrologic budget and model scenarios for Sheridan Lake, South Dakota, 1962-2007

    Science.gov (United States)

    Driscoll, Daniel G.; Norton, Parker A.

    2009-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey cooperated with South Dakota Game, Fish and Parks to characterize hydrologic information relevant to management of water resources associated with Sheridan Lake, which is formed by a dam on Spring Creek. This effort consisted primarily of characterization of hydrologic data for a base period of 1962 through 2006, development of a hydrologic budget for Sheridan Lake for this timeframe, and development of an associated model for simulation of storage deficits and drawdown in Sheridan Lake for hypothetical release scenarios from the lake. Historically, the dam has been operated primarily as a 'pass-through' system, in which unregulated outflows pass over the spillway; however, the dam recently was retrofitted with an improved control valve system that would allow controlled releases of about 7 cubic feet per second (ft3/s) or less from a fixed depth of about 60 feet (ft). Development of a hydrologic budget for Sheridan Lake involved compilation, estimation, and characterization of data sets for streamflow, precipitation, and evaporation. The most critical data need was for extrapolation of available short-term streamflow records for Spring Creek to be used as the long-term inflow to Sheridan Lake. Available short-term records for water years (WY) 1991-2004 for a gaging station upstream from Sheridan Lake were extrapolated to WY 1962-2006 on the basis of correlations with streamflow records for a downstream station and for stations located along two adjacent streams. Comparisons of data for the two streamflow-gaging stations along Spring Creek indicated that tributary inflow is approximately proportional to the intervening drainage area, which was used as a means of estimating tributary inflow for the hydrologic budget. Analysis of evaporation data shows that sustained daily rates may exceed maximum monthly rates by a factor of about two. A long-term (1962-2006) hydrologic budget was developed for computation of reservoir outflow from

  17. Miocene Antarctic Terrestrial Realm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ashworth, A. C.; Lewis, A.; Marchant, D. R.

    2009-12-01

    The discovery of several locations in the Transantarctic Mountains that contain macrofossils and pollen is transforming our understanding of late Cenozoic Antarctica. The most southerly location is on the Beardmore Glacier (85.1°S) about 500 km from the South Pole. The environment was an active glacial margin in which plants, insects and freshwater mollusks inhabited the sand and gravel bars and small lakes on an outwash plain. In addition to leaves and wood of dwarf Nothofagus (Southern Beech) shrubs, achenes of Ranunculus (Buttercup), in situ cushion growth forms of mosses and a vascular plant, the assemblages contains various exoskeletal parts of carabid and curculionid beetles and a cyclorrhaphan fly, the shells of freshwater bivalve and gastropod species and a fish tooth. Initially the deposits were assigned a Pliocene age (3.5 Ma) but a mid- to early Miocene age is more probable (c. 14 - 25 Ma) based on correlation of fossil pollen from the deposits with 39Ar/40Ar dated pollen assemblages from the McMurdo Dry Valleys locations. The oldest location within the Dry Valleys also involved an active ice margin but was part of a valley system that was completely deglaciated for intervals long enough for thick paleosols to develop. The Friis Hills fossil deposits of the Taylor Valley region (77.8°S) are at least 19.76 Ma based on the 39Ar/40Ar age of a volcanic ash bed. The valley floor during the non-glacial phases had poorly-drained soils and the extensive development of mossy mires. Wood and leaves of Nothofagus are abundant in lacustrine deposits. The silts of shallow fluvial channels contain abundant megaspores and spiky leaves of the aquatic lycopod Isoetes (Quillwort). Fossils of beetles are also present in these deposits. During the glacial phases, proglacial lakes were surrounded by dwarfed, deciduous Nothofagus shrubs. The youngest fossils recovered from the Dry Valleys are from the Olympus Range (77.5°S) with an age of 14.07 Ma. The environment was an

  18. Persistent Organic Pollutants in Biotic and Abiotic Components of Antarctic Pristine Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhardwaj, Laxmikant; Chauhan, Abhishek; Ranjan, Anuj; Jindal, Tanu

    2018-05-01

    Over the past decades, research in Antarctica has built a new understanding of Antarctica, its past, present and future. Human activities and long-range pollutants are increasing on the Antarctic continent. Research on persistent organic pollutants (POPs) has been carried out internationally by several countries having their permanent research stations to explain the impact of an ever increasing range of POPs in Antarctic ecosystem. POPs have been detected in Antarctica despite its geographical isolation and almost complete absence of human settlements. The presence of POPs in different abiotic (atmosphere, water bodies, sediments, soil, sea ice) and biotic components (mosses, lichens, krill, penguins, skua, etc.) in Antarctica has been studied and documented around for decades and has either been banned or strictly regulated but is still found in the environment. This review focuses on recent research pertaining to sources and occurrence of POPs in Antarctic lake water, soil, sediment, lichen, mosses and other Antarctic marine community. This review also proposes to summarize the current state of research on POPs in Antarctica environment and draw the earliest conclusions on possible significance of POPs in Antarctica based on presently available information from related Antarctic environment.

  19. A three-dimensional water quality modeling approach for exploring the eutrophication responses to load reduction scenarios in Lake Yilong (China)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhao, Lei; Li, Yuzhao; Zou, Rui; He, Bin; Zhu, Xiang; Liu, Yong; Wang, Junsong; Zhu, Yongguan

    2013-01-01

    Lake Yilong in Southwestern China has been under serious eutrophication threat during the past decades; however, the lake water remained clear until sudden sharp increase in Chlorophyll a (Chl a) and turbidity in 2009 without apparent change in external loading levels. To investigate the causes as well as examining the underlying mechanism, a three-dimensional hydrodynamic and water quality model was developed, simulating the flow circulation, pollutant fate and transport, and the interactions between nutrients, phytoplankton and macrophytes. The calibrated and validated model was used to conduct three sets of scenarios for understanding the water quality responses to various load reduction intensities and ecological restoration measures. The results showed that (a) even if the nutrient loads is reduced by as much as 77%, the Chl a concentration decreased only by 50%; and (b) aquatic vegetation has strong interaction with phytoplankton, therefore requiring combined watershed and in-lake management for lake restoration. -- Highlights: ► We quantitatively investigated the non-linear lake responses to load reduction. ► The aquatic ecological condition had a great impact on algal blooms. ► Only water quality improvement cannot ensure the aquatic ecology restoration. -- The lake water quality responds to watershed load reduction in a nonlinear way, which requires combined watershed and in-lake management for lake restoration

  20. Modeling the Sedimentary Infill of Lakes in the East African Rift: A Case Study of Multiple versus Single Rift Basin Segments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, C.; Scholz, C. A.

    2016-12-01

    The sedimentary basins in the East African Rift are considered excellent modern examples for investigating sedimentary infilling and evolution of extensional systems. Some lakes in the western branch of the rift have formed within single-segment systems, and include Lake Albert and Lake Edward. The largest and oldest lakes developed within multi-segment systems, and these include Lake Tanganyika and Lake Malawi. This research aims to explore processes of erosion and sedimentary infilling of the catchment area in single-segment rift (SSR) and multi-segment rift (MSR) systems. We consider different conditions of regional precipitation and evaporation, and assess the resulting facies architecture through forward modeling, using state-of-the-art commercial basin modeling software. Dionisos is a three-dimensional numerical stratigraphic forward modeling software program, which simulates basin-scale sediment transport based on empirical water- and gravity-driven diffusion equations. It was classically used to quantify the sedimentary architecture and basin infilling of both marine siliciclastic and carbonate environments. However, we apply this approach to continental rift basin environments. In this research, two scenarios are developed, one for a MSR and the other for a SSR. The modeled systems simulate the ratio of drainage area and lake surface area observed in modern Lake Tanganyika and Lake Albert, which are examples of MSRs and SSRs, respectively. The main parameters, such as maximum subsidence rate, water- and gravity-driven diffusion coefficients, rainfall, and evaporation, are approximated using these real-world examples. The results of 5 million year model runs with 50,000 year time steps show that MSRs are characterized by a deep water lake with relatively modest sediment accumulation, while the SSRs are characterized by a nearly overfilled lake with shallow water depths and thick sediment accumulation. The preliminary modeling results conform to the features

  1. Combining Hydrological Modeling and Remote Sensing Observations to Enable Data-Driven Decision Making for Devils Lake Flood Mitigation in a Changing Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xiaodong; Kirilenko, Andrei; Lim, Howe; Teng, Williams

    2010-01-01

    This slide presentation reviews work to combine the hydrological models and remote sensing observations to monitor Devils Lake in North Dakota, to assist in flood damage mitigation. This reports on the use of a distributed rainfall-runoff model, HEC-HMS, to simulate the hydro-dynamics of the lake watershed, and used NASA's remote sensing data, including the TRMM Multi-Satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) and AIRS surface air temperature, to drive the model.

  2. Past climate changes and permafrost depth at the Lake El'gygytgyn site: implications from data and thermal modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Mottaghy

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This study focuses on the temperature field observed in boreholes drilled as part of interdisciplinary scientific campaign targeting the El'gygytgyn Crater Lake in NE Russia. Temperature data are available from two sites: the lake borehole 5011-1 located near the center of the lake reaching 400 m depth, and the land borehole 5011-3 at the rim of the lake, with a depth of 140 m. Constraints on permafrost depth and past climate changes are derived from numerical simulation of the thermal regime associated with the lake-related talik structure. The thermal properties of the subsurface needed for these simulations are based on laboratory measurements of representative cores from the quaternary sediments and the underlying impact-affected rock, complemented by further information from geophysical logs and data from published literature. The temperature observations in the lake borehole 5011-1 are dominated by thermal perturbations related to the drilling process, and thus only give reliable values for the lowermost value in the borehole. Undisturbed temperature data recorded over more than two years are available in the 140 m deep land-based borehole 5011-3. The analysis of these observations allows determination of not only the recent mean annual ground surface temperature, but also the ground surface temperature history, though with large uncertainties. Although the depth of this borehole is by far too insufficient for a complete reconstruction of past temperatures back to the Last Glacial Maximum, it still affects the thermal regime, and thus permafrost depth. This effect is constrained by numerical modeling: assuming that the lake borehole observations are hardly influenced by the past changes in surface air temperature, an estimate of steady-state conditions is possible, leading to a meaningful value of 14 ± 5 K for the post-glacial warming. The strong curvature of the temperature data in shallower depths around 60 m can be explained by a

  3. Relative sea level in the Western Mediterranean basin: A regional test of the ICE-7G_NA (VM7) model and a constraint on late Holocene Antarctic deglaciation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roy, Keven; Peltier, W. R.

    2018-03-01

    The Mediterranean Basin is a region of special interest in the study of past and present relative sea level evolution, given its location south of the ice sheets that covered large fractions of Northern Europe during the last glaciation, the large number of biological, geological and archaeological sea level indicators that have been retrieved from its coastal regions, as well as its high density of modern coastal infrastructure. Models of the Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) process provide reconstructions of past relative sea level evolution, and can be tested for validity against past sea level indicators from the region. It is demonstrated herein that the latest ICE-7G_NA (VM7) model of the GIA process, the North American component of which was refined using a full suite of geophysical observables, is able to reconcile the vast majority of uniformly analyzed relative sea level constraints available for the Western part of the Mediterranean basin, a region to which it was not tuned. We also revisit herein the previously published interpretations of relative sea level information obtained from Roman-era coastal Mediterranean "fish tanks", analyze the far-field influence of the rate of late Holocene Antarctic ice sheet melting history on the exceptionally detailed relative sea level history available from southern Tunisia, and extend the analysis to complementary constraints on the history of Antarctic ice-sheet melting available from islands in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. The analyses reported herein provide strong support for the global "exportability" of the ICE-7G_NA (VM7) model, a result that speaks directly to the ability of spherically symmetric models of the internal viscoelastic structure to explain globally distributed observations, while also identifying isolated regions of remaining misfit which will benefit from further study.

  4. Application of the Gillette model for windblown dust at Owens Lake, CA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ono, Duane

    Windblown dust can have significant impacts on local air pollution levels, and in cases such as dust from Africa or Asia, can have global impacts on our environment. Models to estimate particulate matter emissions from windblown dust are generally based on the local wind speed, the threshold wind speed to initiate erosion, and the soil texture of a given surface. However, precipitation, soil crusting, and soil disturbance can dramatically change the threshold wind speed and erosion potential of a surface, making modeling difficult. A low-cost sampling and analysis method was developed to account for these surface changes in a wind erosion model. Windblown dust emissions measured as PM 10 (particulate matter less than a nominal 10 μm aerodynamic diameter) have been found to be generally proportional to sand flux (also known as saltation flux). In this study, a model was used to estimate sand flux using the relationship Q=AρG/g, where Q is horizontal sand flux, A is a surface erosion potential factor, ρ is air density, g is the gravitational constant, and G=∫ u*(u*2-u*t2)dt, where u* is friction velocity and u is the threshold friction velocity of the surface. The variable A in the model was derived by comparing the measured sand flux for a given period and area to G for the same period. Sand flux was monitored at Owens Lake, CA using low-cost Cox Sand Catchers (CSCs) for monthly measurements, and more expensive electronic sensors (Sensits) to measure hourly flux rates and u. Monitors were spaced 1 km apart at 114 sites, covering one clay and three sand-dominated soil areas. Good model results relied primarily on the erosion potential A, which could be determined from CSC measurements and wind speed data. Annual values for A were found to range from 1.3 to 3.5 in the three sand areas. The value of A was an order of magnitude lower (0.2) in the less erodible clay area. Previous studies showed similar values for A of 0.7 and 2.9 for a sandy site at Owens Lake, and

  5. Future water availability in the largest freshwater Mediterranean lake is at great risk as evidenced from simulations with the SWAT model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bucak, Tuba; Trolle, Dennis; Andersen, Hans Estrup; Thodsen, Hans; Erdoğan, Şeyda; Levi, Eti E; Filiz, Nur; Jeppesen, Erik; Beklioğlu, Meryem

    2017-03-01

    Inter- and intra-annual water level fluctuations and changes in water flow regime are intrinsic characteristics of Mediterranean lakes