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Sample records for annual influenza epidemic

  1. Influenza surveillance in Europe: establishing epidemic thresholds by the Moving Epidemic Method

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    Vega, Tomás; Lozano, Jose Eugenio; Meerhoff, Tamara; Snacken, René; Mott, Joshua; Ortiz de Lejarazu, Raul; Nunes, Baltazar

    2012-01-01

    Please cite this paper as: Vega et al. (2012) Influenza surveillance in Europe: establishing epidemic thresholds by the moving epidemic method. Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses 7(4), 546–558. Background  Timely influenza surveillance is important to monitor influenza epidemics. Objectives  (i) To calculate the epidemic threshold for influenza‐like illness (ILI) and acute respiratory infections (ARI) in 19 countries, as well as the thresholds for different levels of intensity. (ii) To evaluate the performance of these thresholds. Methods  The moving epidemic method (MEM) has been developed to determine the baseline influenza activity and an epidemic threshold. False alerts, detection lags and timeliness of the detection of epidemics were calculated. The performance was evaluated using a cross‐validation procedure. Results  The overall sensitivity of the MEM threshold was 71·8% and the specificity was 95·5%. The median of the timeliness was 1 week (range: 0–4·5). Conclusions  The method produced a robust and specific signal to detect influenza epidemics. The good balance between the sensitivity and specificity of the epidemic threshold to detect seasonal epidemics and avoid false alerts has advantages for public health purposes. This method may serve as standard to define the start of the annual influenza epidemic in countries in Europe. PMID:22897919

  2. Can influenza epidemics be prevented by voluntary vaccination?

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    Raffaele Vardavas

    2007-05-01

    Full Text Available Previous modeling studies have identified the vaccination coverage level necessary for preventing influenza epidemics, but have not shown whether this critical coverage can be reached. Here we use computational modeling to determine, for the first time, whether the critical coverage for influenza can be achieved by voluntary vaccination. We construct a novel individual-level model of human cognition and behavior; individuals are characterized by two biological attributes (memory and adaptability that they use when making vaccination decisions. We couple this model with a population-level model of influenza that includes vaccination dynamics. The coupled models allow individual-level decisions to influence influenza epidemiology and, conversely, influenza epidemiology to influence individual-level decisions. By including the effects of adaptive decision-making within an epidemic model, we can reproduce two essential characteristics of influenza epidemiology: annual variation in epidemic severity and sporadic occurrence of severe epidemics. We suggest that individual-level adaptive decision-making may be an important (previously overlooked causal factor in driving influenza epidemiology. We find that severe epidemics cannot be prevented unless vaccination programs offer incentives. Frequency of severe epidemics could be reduced if programs provide, as an incentive to be vaccinated, several years of free vaccines to individuals who pay for one year of vaccination. Magnitude of epidemic amelioration will be determined by the number of years of free vaccination, an individuals' adaptability in decision-making, and their memory. This type of incentive program could control epidemics if individuals are very adaptable and have long-term memories. However, incentive-based programs that provide free vaccination for families could increase the frequency of severe epidemics. We conclude that incentive-based vaccination programs are necessary to control

  3. Public health and economic impact of vaccination with 7-valent pneumococcal vaccine (PCV7 in the context of the annual influenza epidemic and a severe influenza pandemic

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    Strutton David R

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Influenza pandemic outbreaks occurred in the US in 1918, 1957, and 1968. Historical evidence suggests that the majority of influenza-related deaths during the 1918 US pandemic were attributable to bacterial pneumococcal infections. The 2009 novel influenza A (H1N1 outbreak highlights the importance of interventions that may mitigate the impact of a pandemic. Methods A decision-analytic model was constructed to evaluate the impact of 7-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV7 on pneumococcal disease incidence and mortality during a typical influenza season (13/100 and a severe influenza pandemic (30/100. Outcomes were compared for current PCV7 vaccination practices vs. no vaccination. The model was estimated using published sources and includes indirect (herd protection of non-vaccinated persons. Results The model predicts that PCV7 vaccination in the US is cost saving for a normal influenza season, reducing pneumococcal-related costs by $1.6 billion. In a severe influenza pandemic, vaccination would save $7.3 billion in costs and prevent 512,000 cases of IPD, 719,000 cases of pneumonia, 62,000 IPD deaths, and 47,000 pneumonia deaths; 84% of deaths are prevented due to indirect (herd protection in the unvaccinated. Conclusions PCV7 vaccination is highly effective and cost saving in both normal and severe pandemic influenza seasons. Current infant vaccination practices may prevent >1 million pneumococcal-related deaths in a severe influenza pandemic, primarily due to herd protection.

  4. Public health and economic impact of vaccination with 7-valent pneumococcal vaccine (PCV7) in the context of the annual influenza epidemic and a severe influenza pandemic.

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    Rubin, Jaime L; McGarry, Lisa J; Klugman, Keith P; Strutton, David R; Gilmore, Kristen E; Weinstein, Milton C

    2010-01-21

    Influenza pandemic outbreaks occurred in the US in 1918, 1957, and 1968. Historical evidence suggests that the majority of influenza-related deaths during the 1918 US pandemic were attributable to bacterial pneumococcal infections. The 2009 novel influenza A (H1N1) outbreak highlights the importance of interventions that may mitigate the impact of a pandemic. A decision-analytic model was constructed to evaluate the impact of 7-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV7) on pneumococcal disease incidence and mortality during a typical influenza season (13/100) and a severe influenza pandemic (30/100). Outcomes were compared for current PCV7 vaccination practices vs. no vaccination. The model was estimated using published sources and includes indirect (herd) protection of non-vaccinated persons. The model predicts that PCV7 vaccination in the US is cost saving for a normal influenza season, reducing pneumococcal-related costs by $1.6 billion. In a severe influenza pandemic, vaccination would save $7.3 billion in costs and prevent 512,000 cases of IPD, 719,000 cases of pneumonia, 62,000 IPD deaths, and 47,000 pneumonia deaths; 84% of deaths are prevented due to indirect (herd) protection in the unvaccinated. PCV7 vaccination is highly effective and cost saving in both normal and severe pandemic influenza seasons. Current infant vaccination practices may prevent >1 million pneumococcal-related deaths in a severe influenza pandemic, primarily due to herd protection.

  5. The health and economic impact of vaccination with 7-valent pneumococcal vaccine (PCV7) during an annual influenza epidemic and influenza pandemic in China.

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    Caldwell, Ronald; Roberts, Craig S; An, Zhijie; Chen, Chieh-I; Wang, Bruce

    2015-07-24

    China has experienced several severe outbreaks of influenza over the past century: 1918, 1957, 1968, and 2009. Influenza itself can be deadly; however, the increase in mortality during an influenza outbreak is also attributable to secondary bacterial infections, specifically pneumococcal disease. Given the history of pandemic outbreaks and the associated morbidity and mortality, we investigated the cost-effectiveness of a PCV7 vaccination program in China from the context of typical and pandemic influenza seasons. A decision-analytic model was employed to evaluate the impact of a 7-valent pneumococcal vaccine (PCV7) infant vaccination program on the incidence, mortality, and cost associated with pneumococcal disease during a typical influenza season (15% flu incidence) and influenza pandemic (30% flu incidence) in China. The model incorporated Chinese data where available and included both direct and indirect (herd) effects on the unvaccinated population, assuming a point in time following the initial introduction of the vaccine where the impact of the indirect effects has reached a steady state, approximately seven years following the implementation of the vaccine program. Pneumococcal disease incidence, mortality, and costs were evaluated over a one year time horizon. Healthcare costs were calculated using a payer perspective and included vaccination program costs and direct medical expenditures from pneumococcal disease. The model predicted that routine PCV7 vaccination of infants in China would prevent 5,053,453 cases of pneumococcal disease and 76,714 deaths in a single year during a normal influenza season.The estimated incremental-cost-effectiveness ratios were ¥12,281 (US$1,900) per life-year saved and ¥13,737 (US$2,125) per quality-adjusted-life-year gained. During an influenza pandemic, the model estimated that routine vaccination with PCV7 would prevent 8,469,506 cases of pneumococcal disease and 707,526 deaths, and would be cost-saving. Routine

  6. Unsynchronized influenza epidemics in two neighboring subtropical cities

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    Xiujuan Tang

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Objective: The aim of this study was to examine the synchrony of influenza epidemics between Hong Kong and Shenzhen, two neighboring subtropical cities in South China. Methods: Laboratory-confirmed influenza data for the period January 2006 to December 2016 were obtained from the Shenzhen Center for Disease Control and Prevention and the Department of Health in Hong Kong. The population data were retrieved from the 2011 population censuses. The weekly rates of laboratory-confirmed influenza cases were compared between Shenzhen and Hong Kong. Results: Unsynchronized influenza epidemics between Hong Kong and Shenzhen were frequently observed during the study period. Influenza A/H1N1 caused a more severe pandemic in Hong Kong in 2009, but the subsequent seasonal epidemics showed similar magnitudes in both cities. Two influenza A/H3N2 dominant epidemic waves were seen in Hong Kong in 2015, but these epidemics were very minor in Shenzhen. More influenza B epidemics occurred in Shenzhen than in Hong Kong. Conclusions: Influenza epidemics appeared to be unsynchronized between Hong Kong and Shenzhen most of the time. Given the close geographical locations of these two cities, this could be due to the strikingly different age structures of their populations. Keywords: Influenza epidemics, Synchrony, Shenzhen, Hong Kong

  7. Forecasting influenza epidemics from multi-stream surveillance data in a subtropical city of China.

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    Pei-Hua Cao

    Full Text Available Influenza has been associated with heavy burden of mortality and morbidity in subtropical regions. However, timely forecast of influenza epidemic in these regions has been hindered by unclear seasonality of influenza viruses. In this study, we developed a forecasting model by integrating multiple sentinel surveillance data to predict influenza epidemics in a subtropical city Shenzhen, China.Dynamic linear models with the predictors of single or multiple surveillance data for influenza-like illness (ILI were adopted to forecast influenza epidemics from 2006 to 2012 in Shenzhen. Temporal coherence of these surveillance data with laboratory-confirmed influenza cases was evaluated by wavelet analysis and only the coherent data streams were entered into the model. Timeliness, sensitivity and specificity of these models were also evaluated to compare their performance.Both influenza virology data and ILI consultation rates in Shenzhen demonstrated a significant annual seasonal cycle (p<0.05 during the entire study period, with occasional deviations observed in some data streams. The forecasting models that combined multi-stream ILI surveillance data generally outperformed the models with single-stream ILI data, by providing more timely, sensitive and specific alerts.Forecasting models that combine multiple sentinel surveillance data can be considered to generate timely alerts for influenza epidemics in subtropical regions like Shenzhen.

  8. Using Clinicians’ Search Query Data to Monitor Influenza Epidemics

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    Santillana, Mauricio; Nsoesie, Elaine O.; Mekaru, Sumiko R.; Scales, David; Brownstein, John S.

    2014-01-01

    Search query information from a clinician's database, UpToDate, is shown to predict influenza epidemics in the United States in a timely manner. Our results show that digital disease surveillance tools based on experts' databases may be able to provide an alternative, reliable, and stable signal for accurate predictions of influenza outbreaks. PMID:25115873

  9. An Epidemiological Analysis of Summer Influenza Epidemics in Okinawa.

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    Sunagawa, Satoko; Iha, Yoshikazu; Taira, Katsuya; Okano, Sho; Kinjo, Takeshi; Higa, Futoshi; Kuba, Kazufumi; Tateyama, Masao; Nakamura, Katsunori; Nakamura, Shota; Motooka, Daisuke; Horii, Toshihiro; Parrott, Gretchen L; Fujita, Jiro

    Objective This study evaluates the difference between winter influenza and summer influenza in Okinawa. Methods From January 2007 to June 2014, weekly rapid antigen test (RAT) results performed in four acute care hospitals were collected for the surveillance of regional influenza prevalence in the Naha region of the Okinawa Islands. Results An antigenic data analysis revealed that multiple H1N1 and H3N2 viruses consistently co-circulate in Okinawa, creating synchronized seasonal patterns and a high genetic diversity of influenza A. Additionally, influenza B viruses play a significant role in summer epidemics, almost every year. To further understand influenza epidemics during the summer in Okinawa, we evaluated the full genome sequences of some representative human influenza A and influenza B viruses isolated in Okinawa. Phylogenetic data analysis also revealed that multiple H1N1 and H3N2 viruses consistently co-circulate in Okinawa. Conclusion This surveillance revealed a distinct epidemic pattern of seasonal and pandemic influenza in this subtropical region.

  10. Increases in absenteeism among health care workers in Hong Kong during influenza epidemics, 2004-2009.

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    Ip, Dennis K M; Lau, Eric H Y; Tam, Yat Hung; So, Hau Chi; Cowling, Benjamin J; Kwok, Henry K H

    2015-12-29

    Acute respiratory infections (ARI) are a major cause of sickness absenteeism among health care workers (HCWs) and contribute significantly to overall productivity loss particularly during influenza epidemics. The purpose of this study is to quantify the increases in absenteeism during epidemics including the 2009 influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 pandemic. We analysed administrative data to determine patterns of sickness absence among HCWs in Hong Kong from January 2004 through December 2009, and used multivariable linear regression model to estimate the excess all-cause and ARI-related sickness absenteeism rates during influenza epidemics. We found that influenza epidemics prior to the 2009 pandemic and during the 2009 pandemic were associated with 8.4 % (95 % CI: 5.6-11.2 %) and 57.7 % (95 % CI: 54.6-60.9 %) increases in overall sickness absence, and 26.5 % (95 % CI: 21.4-31.5 %) and 90.9 % (95 % CI: 85.2-96.6 %) increases in ARI-related sickness absence among HCWs in Hong Kong, respectively. Comparing different staff types, increases in overall absenteeism were highest among medical staff, during seasonal influenza epidemic periods (51.3 %, 95 % CI: 38.9-63.7 %) and the pandemic mitigation period (142.1 %, 95 % CI: 128.0-156.1 %). Influenza epidemics were associated with a substantial increase in sickness absence and productivity loss among HCWs in Hong Kong, and there was a much higher rate of absenteeism during the 2009 pandemic. These findings could inform better a more proactive workforce redistribution plans to allow for sufficient surge capacity in annual epidemics, and for pandemic preparedness.

  11. Continental synchronicity of human influenza virus epidemics despite climactic variation.

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    Geoghegan, Jemma L; Saavedra, Aldo F; Duchêne, Sebastián; Sullivan, Sheena; Barr, Ian; Holmes, Edward C

    2018-01-01

    The factors that determine the pattern and rate of spread of influenza virus at a continental-scale are uncertain. Although recent work suggests that influenza epidemics in the United States exhibit a strong geographical correlation, the spatiotemporal dynamics of influenza in Australia, a country and continent of approximately similar size and climate complexity but with a far smaller population, are not known. Using a unique combination of large-scale laboratory-confirmed influenza surveillance comprising >450,000 entries and genomic sequence data we determined the local-level spatial diffusion of this important human pathogen nationwide in Australia. We used laboratory-confirmed influenza data to characterize the spread of influenza virus across Australia during 2007-2016. The onset of established epidemics varied across seasons, with highly synchronized epidemics coinciding with the emergence of antigenically distinct viruses, particularly during the 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic. The onset of epidemics was largely synchronized between the most populous cities, even those separated by distances of >3000 km and those that experience vastly diverse climates. In addition, by analyzing global phylogeographic patterns we show that the synchronized dissemination of influenza across Australian cities involved multiple introductions from the global influenza population, coupled with strong domestic connectivity, rather than through the distinct radial patterns of geographic dispersal that are driven by work-flow transmission as observed in the United States. In addition, by comparing the spatial structure of influenza A and B, we found that these viruses tended to occupy different geographic regions, and peak in different seasons, perhaps indicative of moderate cross-protective immunity or viral interference effects. The highly synchronized outbreaks of influenza virus at a continental-scale revealed here highlight the importance of coordinated public health responses in the

  12. Continental synchronicity of human influenza virus epidemics despite climactic variation.

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    Jemma L Geoghegan

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The factors that determine the pattern and rate of spread of influenza virus at a continental-scale are uncertain. Although recent work suggests that influenza epidemics in the United States exhibit a strong geographical correlation, the spatiotemporal dynamics of influenza in Australia, a country and continent of approximately similar size and climate complexity but with a far smaller population, are not known. Using a unique combination of large-scale laboratory-confirmed influenza surveillance comprising >450,000 entries and genomic sequence data we determined the local-level spatial diffusion of this important human pathogen nationwide in Australia. We used laboratory-confirmed influenza data to characterize the spread of influenza virus across Australia during 2007-2016. The onset of established epidemics varied across seasons, with highly synchronized epidemics coinciding with the emergence of antigenically distinct viruses, particularly during the 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic. The onset of epidemics was largely synchronized between the most populous cities, even those separated by distances of >3000 km and those that experience vastly diverse climates. In addition, by analyzing global phylogeographic patterns we show that the synchronized dissemination of influenza across Australian cities involved multiple introductions from the global influenza population, coupled with strong domestic connectivity, rather than through the distinct radial patterns of geographic dispersal that are driven by work-flow transmission as observed in the United States. In addition, by comparing the spatial structure of influenza A and B, we found that these viruses tended to occupy different geographic regions, and peak in different seasons, perhaps indicative of moderate cross-protective immunity or viral interference effects. The highly synchronized outbreaks of influenza virus at a continental-scale revealed here highlight the importance of coordinated public health

  13. Spatial Big Data Analytics of Influenza Epidemic in Vellore, India.

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    Lopez, Daphne; Gunasekaran, M; Murugan, B Senthil; Kaur, Harpreet; Abbas, Kaja M

    2014-10-01

    The study objective is to develop a big spatial data model to predict the epidemiological impact of influenza in Vellore, India. Large repositories of geospatial and health data provide vital statistics on surveillance and epidemiological metrics, and valuable insight into the spatiotemporal determinants of disease and health. The integration of these big data sources and analytics to assess risk factors and geospatial vulnerability can assist to develop effective prevention and control strategies for influenza epidemics and optimize allocation of limited public health resources. We used the spatial epidemiology data of the HIN1 epidemic collected at the National Informatics Center during 2009-2010 in Vellore. We developed an ecological niche model based on geographically weighted regression for predicting influenza epidemics in Vellore, India during 2013-2014. Data on rainfall, temperature, wind speed, humidity and population are included in the geographically weighted regression analysis. We inferred positive correlations for H1N1 influenza prevalence with rainfall and wind speed, and negative correlations for H1N1 influenza prevalence with temperature and humidity. We evaluated the results of the geographically weighted regression model in predicting the spatial distribution of the influenza epidemic during 2013-2014.

  14. Influenza in Poland in 2013 and 2013/2014 epidemic season

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    Kondratiuk, Katarzyna; Czarkowski, Mirosław P; Hallmann-Szelińska, Ewelina; Staszewska, Ewa; Bednarska, Karolina; Cielebąk, Ewa; Brydak, Lidia B

    2016-01-01

    Analysis of epidemiological situation of influenza in Poland in 2013 and 2013/14 epidemic season in reference to previous years and seasons. Analysis was based on: 1) data collected within influenza routine surveillance system in Poland, including data published in annual bulletins “Infectious diseases and poisonings in Poland” as well as unpublished data gathered in the Department of Epidemiology of the NIPH-NIH; 2) data collected within influenza system - Sentinel, and beyond this system, concerning results of virological tests carried out in 2013/14 epidemic season in the Department of Influenza Research, National Influenza Center in the NIPHNIH and/or laboratories of provincial sanitary and epidemiological stations which are gathered in the National Influenza Center. Compared to 2012, the number of influenza and influenza-like cases increased more than twofold in 2013 in Poland. A total of 3 164 405 cases were reported. Incidence was 8 218.7 per 100,000 population (33 733.2 in 0-4 age group). As many as 0.45% of patients were referred to hospitals. According to the data of the Central Statistical Office, 115 deaths due to influenza were notified. Based on the data of the sanitary inspection (incomplete data), the percentage of population vaccinated against influenza was 2.4% (7.7% of persons aged more than 64 years). A total of 2 780 945 cases were registered in 2013/14 epidemic season. Its peak was reported in March 2014. Incidence was 7 224.0 per 100,000 population (35 172.8 in 0-4 age group). Compared to 2012/13 epidemic season, it was lower by 8.0%. Incidence rates ranged from 29 339.6 in pomorskie voivodeship to 1 306.5 in lubuskie voivodeship. Nearly a half of all cases (48.7%) were registered in children and adolescents up to 15 years. As many as 0.34% of patients were referred to hospitals (0.87% of persons aged more than 64 years). From the data of the Central Statistical Office transpires that 8 deaths due to influenza were reported in epidemic

  15. Deriving a model for influenza epidemics from historical data.

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    Ray, Jaideep; Lefantzi, Sophia

    2011-09-01

    In this report we describe how we create a model for influenza epidemics from historical data collected from both civilian and military societies. We derive the model when the population of the society is unknown but the size of the epidemic is known. Our interest lies in estimating a time-dependent infection rate to within a multiplicative constant. The model form fitted is chosen for its similarity to published models for HIV and plague, enabling application of Bayesian techniques to discriminate among infectious agents during an emerging epidemic. We have developed models for the progression of influenza in human populations. The model is framed as a integral, and predicts the number of people who exhibit symptoms and seek care over a given time-period. The start and end of the time period form the limits of integration. The disease progression model, in turn, contains parameterized models for the incubation period and a time-dependent infection rate. The incubation period model is obtained from literature, and the parameters of the infection rate are fitted from historical data including both military and civilian populations. The calibrated infection rate models display a marked difference in which the 1918 Spanish Influenza pandemic differed from the influenza seasons in the US between 2001-2008 and the progression of H1N1 in Catalunya, Spain. The data for the 1918 pandemic was obtained from military populations, while the rest are country-wide or province-wide data from the twenty-first century. We see that the initial growth of infection in all cases were about the same; however, military populations were able to control the epidemic much faster i.e., the decay of the infection-rate curve is much higher. It is not clear whether this was because of the much higher level of organization present in a military society or the seriousness with which the 1918 pandemic was addressed. Each outbreak to which the influenza model was fitted yields a separate set of

  16. The role of environmental transmission in recurrent avian influenza epidemics.

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    Romulus Breban

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available Avian influenza virus (AIV persists in North American wild waterfowl, exhibiting major outbreaks every 2-4 years. Attempts to explain the patterns of periodicity and persistence using simple direct transmission models are unsuccessful. Motivated by empirical evidence, we examine the contribution of an overlooked AIV transmission mode: environmental transmission. It is known that infectious birds shed large concentrations of virions in the environment, where virions may persist for a long time. We thus propose that, in addition to direct fecal/oral transmission, birds may become infected by ingesting virions that have long persisted in the environment. We design a new host-pathogen model that combines within-season transmission dynamics, between-season migration and reproduction, and environmental variation. Analysis of the model yields three major results. First, environmental transmission provides a persistence mechanism within small communities where epidemics cannot be sustained by direct transmission only (i.e., communities smaller than the critical community size. Second, environmental transmission offers a parsimonious explanation of the 2-4 year periodicity of avian influenza epidemics. Third, very low levels of environmental transmission (i.e., few cases per year are sufficient for avian influenza to persist in populations where it would otherwise vanish.

  17. [Epidemiologic and economic effectiveness of school closure during influenza epidemics and pandemics].

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    Gendon, Iu Z; Vasil'ev, Iu M

    2012-01-01

    Epidemiologic and economic effectiveness of school closure during influenza epidemics and pandemics is discussed. Optimal effect of school closure is observed when this measure is taken at the start of the epidemic or pandemic and for a sufficiently long time. School closure during high morbidity among schoolchildren, in the middle (at the peak) and by the end of epidemic or pandemic does not influence significantly the spread of influenza or morbidity. Significant economic losses and other negative consequences of school closure are noted. School closure may be the most appropriate during the emergence of influenza pandemic when the pandemic vaccine is not yet available, however timely mass immunization of schoolchildren against influenza may be a more appropriate measure than school closure for the reduction of influenza morbidity and spread during seasonal influenza epidemics.

  18. Modeling the effects of annual influenza vaccination

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, D.J.; Ackley, D.H.; Forrest, S. [Univ. of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM (United States). Dept. of Computer Science; Perelson, A.S. [Los Alamos National Lab., NM (United States). Theoretical Div.

    1998-12-31

    Although influenza vaccine efficacy is 70--90% in young healthy first-time vaccinees, the efficacy in repeat vaccinees has varied considerably. In some studies, vaccine efficacy in repeat vaccinees was higher than in first-time vaccinees, whereas in other studies vaccine efficacy in repeat vaccinees was significantly lower than in first-time vaccinees and sometimes no higher than in unvaccinated controls. It is known that the closeness of the antigenic match between the vaccine strain and the epidemic virus is important for vaccine effectiveness. In this study the authors show that the antigenic differences between a first vaccine strain and a second vaccine strain, and between the first vaccine strain and the epidemic strain, might account for the observed variation in attack rate among two-time vaccinees.

  19. [Epidemics in nortthern Basque: black death and the Spanish influenza].

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    Erkoreka, Anton

    2008-01-01

    The paper studies the great epidemics that have affected Europe from the middle ages until the 20th century. A special emphasis is put on in the mortality of the Black Death in 1348 (500 per thousand), the smallpox in the 18th century (150 per thousand), the spotted fever in the end of the 18th century (50 per thousand), the cholera pandemic in the 19th century (25.5 - 62.7 per thousand), the tuberculosis in the end of the 19th century (5.3 per thousand) and the mortality that the Spanish influenza produced in the beginnings of the 20th century (12.1 per thousand) in the Basque Country.

  20. [Differences in influenza epidemics in Osaka City--epidemiological surveillance of infectious disease].

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    Murakami, T; Haruki, K; Seto, Y; Kimura, T; Shibe, K; Minoshiro, S

    1994-05-01

    Influenza viruses in outpatients with influenza symptoms in Osaka City were analyzed in an epidemiological surveillance of infectious disease between 1989 and 1993. During influenza epidemics a mixed prevalence of several types of influenza viruses existed. Three types of influenza viruses, AH1, AH3 and B, were isolated during the 1990/1991 season. Remarkably the three types of viruses were discovered in samplings collected on the same day and within a narrow area inside a radius of 800-1,000m from the surveyed hospitals. Different types of viruses were detected between brothers and among school children from same housing complexes. Influenza AH3 viruses detected in 1992/1993 season differed in antigenicity from those detected in the 1990/1991 and 1991/1992 seasons. Therefore it appears that mutation of the AH3 virus contributed to the large-scale influenza epidemic which occurred in the 1992/1993 season.

  1. Sickness Absenteeism Rate in Iranian Schools during the 2009 Epidemic of Type a Influenza

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    Pourabbasi, Ata; Shirvani, Mahbubeh Ebrahimnegad; Khashayar, Patricia

    2012-01-01

    Influenza pandemic was a global event in 2009 and intraschool transmission was its main spread method. The present study was designed to evaluate the absenteeism rate during the type A influenza epidemic. Four hundred and eight students from both a guidance school and high school in the Iranian capital were recruited in this retrospective study.…

  2. The threshold of a stochastic avian-human influenza epidemic model with psychological effect

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    Zhang, Fengrong; Zhang, Xinhong

    2018-02-01

    In this paper, a stochastic avian-human influenza epidemic model with psychological effect in human population and saturation effect within avian population is investigated. This model describes the transmission of avian influenza among avian population and human population in random environments. For stochastic avian-only system, persistence in the mean and extinction of the infected avian population are studied. For the avian-human influenza epidemic system, sufficient conditions for the existence of an ergodic stationary distribution are obtained. Furthermore, a threshold of this stochastic model which determines the outcome of the disease is obtained. Finally, numerical simulations are given to support the theoretical results.

  3. Universal influenza vaccines, science fiction or soon reality?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    R.D. de Vries (Rory); A.F. Altenburg (Arwen); G.F. Rimmelzwaan (Guus)

    2015-01-01

    textabstractCurrently used influenza vaccines are only effective when the vaccine strains match the epidemic strains antigenically. To this end, seasonal influenza vaccines must be updated almost annually. Furthermore, seasonal influenza vaccines fail to afford protection against antigenically

  4. Organization of a third-level care hospital in Mexico City during the 2009 influenza epidemic.

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    Bourlon, María T; Macias, Alejandro E; de la Torre, Alethse; Gulias-Herrero, Alfonso; Leal, Patricia E; Domínguez-Cherit, Guillermo; Huertas, Martha; Ruiz-Palacios, Guillermo M

    2009-11-01

    An outbreak caused by the novel swine-origin influenza A (H1N1) virus was identified in Mexico in late March 2009. The objective of this report is to describe the organization of a tertiary care center in Mexico City during the contingency. We describe the education program, the hospital organization and triaging, and unforeseen overwhelming circumstances. Educational plans were directed to follow standard, contact, and droplet precautions and to condition behavior to avoid touching the eyes, nose, or mouth. N95 respirators were distributed only to perform respiratory procedures. By the fifth month into the epidemic, four patients with hospital-acquired influenza, 467 workers with respiratory symptoms suggestive of influenza (16% of our staff), and 96 workers with confirmed novel influenza A (3% of our staff) were identified. During the first 2 months of the epidemic, 44,225 people went through the triages and only 1503 (3.3%) reached the emergency room. By the fifth month into the epidemic, four small institutional influenza outbreaks (influenza was used mainly for epidemiological purposes. Even though we had a supply, we had difficulties in meeting the demand of masks, N-95 respirators, and hand sanitizers. Due to absenteeism, the nursing administration experienced difficulties in covering shifts. Preparation is mandatory for facing an influenza epidemic. The correct use of precautions is an economic measure to limit institutional transmission. Adequate triaging is essential to meet unusual attention demands.

  5. [Epidemics of conjunctivitis caused by avian influenza virus and molecular basis for its ocular tropism].

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    Yang, Chao; Jin, Ming

    2014-07-01

    Avian influenza virus (AIV) has caused several outbreaks in humans, leading to disasters to human beings. The outbreak of H7N9 avian influenza in China in 2003 re-attracted our close attention to this disease. More and more evidences demonstrated that eye is one of invasion portals of AIV, leading to conjunctivitis. The current studies showed that only subtypes H7 and H5 could cause severe systemic infections. Abundant distribution of α-2, 3 siliac acid receptor in conjunctiva and cornea as well as specific activiation of NF-κB signal transduction pathway by subtype H7 virus may contribute to the ocular tropism of the virus. These studies suggest that avian influenza conjunctivitis should be considered as a differential diagnosis during influenza epidemic seasons, and eyes should be well protected for disease control personnel when handling avian influenza epidemics. This review focused on AIV conjunctivitis and the molecular basis of ocular tropism.

  6. Excess Mortality Associated with Influenza Epidemics in Portugal, 1980 to 2004

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    Nunes, Baltazar; Viboud, Cecile; Machado, Ausenda; Ringholz, Corinne; Rebelo-de-Andrade, Helena; Nogueira, Paulo; Miller, Mark

    2011-01-01

    Background Influenza epidemics have a substantial impact on human health, by increasing the mortality from pneumonia and influenza, respiratory and circulatory diseases, and all causes. This paper provides estimates of excess mortality rates associated with influenza virus circulation for 7 causes of death and 8 age groups in Portugal during the period of 1980–2004. Methodology/Principal Findings We compiled monthly mortality time series data by age for all-cause mortality, cerebrovascular diseases, ischemic heart diseases, diseases of the respiratory system, chronic respiratory diseases, pneumonia and influenza. We also used a control outcome, deaths from injuries. Age- and cause-specific baseline mortality was modelled by the ARIMA approach; excess deaths attributable to influenza were calculated by subtracting expected deaths from observed deaths during influenza epidemic periods. Influenza was associated with a seasonal average of 24.7 all-cause excess deaths per 100,000 inhabitants, approximately 90% of which were among seniors over 65 yrs. Excess mortality was 3–6 fold higher during seasons dominated by the A(H3N2) subtype than seasons dominated by A(H1N1)/B. High excess mortality impact was also seen in children under the age of four years. Seasonal excess mortality rates from all the studied causes of death were highly correlated with each other (Pearson correlation range, 0.65 to 0.95, P0.64, P<0.05). By contrast, there was no correlation with excess mortality from injuries. Conclusions/Significance Our excess mortality approach is specific to influenza virus activity and produces influenza-related mortality rates for Portugal that are similar to those published for other countries. Our results indicate that all-cause excess mortality is a robust indicator of influenza burden in Portugal, and could be used to monitor the impact of influenza epidemics in this country. Additional studies are warranted to confirm these findings in other settings. PMID

  7. Annually repeated influenza vaccination improves humoral responses to several influenza virus strains in healthy elderly

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    I.A. de Bruijn (Iris); E.J. Remarque (Edmond); W.E.Ph. Beyer (Walter); S. le Cessie (Saskia); N. Masurel (Nic); G.L. Ligthart (Gerard)

    1997-01-01

    textabstractThe benefit of annually repeated influenza vaccination on antibody formation is still under debate. In this study the effect of annually repeated influenza vaccination on haemagglutination inhibiting (HI) antibody formation in the elderly is investigated. Between 1990 and 1993 healthy

  8. Annual report: surveillance of influenza and other respiratory infections in the Netherlands: winter 2016/2017.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Teirlinck, A.C.; Asten, L. van; Brandsema, P.S.; Dijkstra, F.; Donker, G.A.; Gageldonk-Lafeber, A.B. van; Hooiveld, M.; Lange, M.M.A. de; Marbus, S.D.; Meijer, A.; Hoek, W. van der

    2017-01-01

    During the 2016/2017 winter season, the influenza epidemic in the Netherlands lasted for 15 weeks. This was longer than the nine-week average duration of epidemics in the twenty previous seasons. Influenza subtype A(H3N2) was the dominant influenza virus throughout the season. In general, baseline

  9. Annual report Surveillance of influenza and other respiratory infections in the Netherlands: Winter 2016/2017

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Teirlinck AC; van Asten L; Brandsema PS; Dijkstra F; Donker GA; van Gageldonk-Lafeber AB; Hooiveld M; de Lange MMA; Marbus SD; Meijer A; van der Hoek W; RES; I&V

    2017-01-01

    During the 2016/2017 winter season, the influenza epidemic in the Netherlands lasted for 15 weeks. This was longer than the nine-week average duration of epidemics in the twenty previous seasons. Influenza subtype A(H3N2) was the dominant influenza virus throughout the season. In general, baseline

  10. Predicting Fluctuating Rates of Hospitalizations in Relation to Influenza Epidemics and Meteorological Factors.

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    Radia Spiga

    Full Text Available In France, rates of hospital admissions increase at the peaks of influenza epidemics. Predicting influenza-associated hospitalizations could help to anticipate increased hospital activity. The purpose of this study is to identify predictors of influenza epidemics through the analysis of meteorological data, and medical data provided by general practitioners.Historical data were collected from Meteo France, the Sentinelles network and hospitals' information systems for a period of 8 years (2007-2015. First, connections between meteorological and medical data were estimated with the Pearson correlation coefficient, Principal component analysis and classification methods (Ward and k-means. Epidemic states of tested weeks were then predicted for each week during a one-year period using linear discriminant analysis. Finally, transition probabilities between epidemic states were calculated with the Markov Chain method.High correlations were found between influenza-associated hospitalizations and the variables: Sentinelles and emergency department admissions, and anti-correlations were found between hospitalizations and each of meteorological factors applying a time lag of: -13, -12 and -32 days respectively for temperature, absolute humidity and solar radiation. Epidemic weeks were predicted accurately with the linear discriminant analysis method; however there were many misclassifications about intermediate and non-epidemic weeks. Transition probability to an epidemic state was 100% when meteorological variables were below: 2°C, 4 g/m3 and 32 W/m2, respectively for temperature, absolute humidity and solar radiation. This probability was 0% when meteorological variables were above: 6°C, 5.8g/m3 and 74W/m2.These results confirm a good correlation between influenza-associated hospitalizations, meteorological factors and general practitioner's activity, the latter being the strongest predictor of hospital activity.

  11. [Model to estimate epidemic patterns of influenza A (H1N1) in Mexico].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Navarro-Robles, Estela; Martínez-Matsushita, Louis; López-Molina, Rubén; Fritz-Hernández, Jimena; Flores-Aldana, Bárbara Aida; Mendoza-Pérez, Juan Carlos

    2012-04-01

    Apply a mathematical model to estimate the epidemic patterns of influenza A (H1N1) in Mexico during the stages of application and suspension of measures to mitigate the epidemic. The effective reproductive number (R) for each state of Mexico during and after the application of social distancing measures was estimated by the SIR model (susceptible, infected, and recovered individuals) based on data published by the Ministry of Health of Mexico. From the beginning of the outbreak until suspension of school activities (28 April-13 May 2009), the national median of R was 1.13. In the following period (14 May-17 July 2009) the national median of R decreased to 1.01. It was demonstrated that several epidemic scenarios occurred at the national level. It is suggested that heterogeneous patterns at the state level be taken into account in decision-making on the adoption of measures to mitigate influenza epidemics.

  12. Sequential detection of influenza epidemics by the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test

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    Closas Pau

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Influenza is a well known and common human respiratory infection, causing significant morbidity and mortality every year. Despite Influenza variability, fast and reliable outbreak detection is required for health resource planning. Clinical health records, as published by the Diagnosticat database in Catalonia, host useful data for probabilistic detection of influenza outbreaks. Methods This paper proposes a statistical method to detect influenza epidemic activity. Non-epidemic incidence rates are modeled against the exponential distribution, and the maximum likelihood estimate for the decaying factor λ is calculated. The sequential detection algorithm updates the parameter as new data becomes available. Binary epidemic detection of weekly incidence rates is assessed by Kolmogorov-Smirnov test on the absolute difference between the empirical and the cumulative density function of the estimated exponential distribution with significance level 0 ≤ α ≤ 1. Results The main advantage with respect to other approaches is the adoption of a statistically meaningful test, which provides an indicator of epidemic activity with an associated probability. The detection algorithm was initiated with parameter λ0 = 3.8617 estimated from the training sequence (corresponding to non-epidemic incidence rates of the 2008-2009 influenza season and sequentially updated. Kolmogorov-Smirnov test detected the following weeks as epidemic for each influenza season: 50−10 (2008-2009 season, 38−50 (2009-2010 season, weeks 50−9 (2010-2011 season and weeks 3 to 12 for the current 2011-2012 season. Conclusions Real medical data was used to assess the validity of the approach, as well as to construct a realistic statistical model of weekly influenza incidence rates in non-epidemic periods. For the tested data, the results confirmed the ability of the algorithm to detect the start and the end of epidemic periods. In general, the proposed test could

  13. On the relative role of different age groups in influenza epidemics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Worby, Colin J; Chaves, Sandra S; Wallinga, Jacco; Lipsitch, Marc; Finelli, Lyn; Goldstein, Edward

    2015-12-01

    The identification of key "driver" groups in influenza epidemics is of much interest for the implementation of effective public health response strategies, including vaccination programs. However, the relative importance of different age groups in propagating epidemics is uncertain. During a communicable disease outbreak, some groups may be disproportionately represented during the outbreak's ascent due to increased susceptibility and/or contact rates. Such groups or subpopulations can be identified by considering the proportion of cases within the subpopulation occurring before (Bp) and after the epidemic peak (Ap) to calculate the subpopulation's relative risk, RR=Bp/Ap. We estimated RR for several subpopulations (age groups) using data on laboratory-confirmed US influenza hospitalizations during epidemics between 2009-2014. Additionally, we simulated various influenza outbreaks in an age-stratified population, relating the RR to the impact of vaccination in each subpopulation on the epidemic's initial effective reproductive number R_e(0). We found that children aged 5-17 had the highest estimates of RR during the five largest influenza A outbreaks, though the relative magnitude of RR in this age group compared to other age groups varied, being highest for the 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic. For the 2010-2011 and 2012-2013 influenza B epidemics, adults aged 18-49, and 0-4 year-olds had the highest estimates of RR respectively. For 83% of simulated epidemics, the group with the highest RR was also the group for which initial distribution of a given quantity of vaccine would result in the largest reduction of R_e(0). In the largest 40% of simulated outbreaks, the group with the highest RR and the largest vaccination impact was children 5-17. While the relative importance of different age groups in propagating influenza outbreaks varies, children aged 5-17 play the leading role during the largest influenza A epidemics. Extra vaccination efforts for this group may contribute

  14. Using the information on cosmic rays to predict influenza epidemics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yu, Z.D.

    1985-01-01

    A correlation between the incidence of influenza pandemics and increased cosmic ray activity is made. A correlation is also made between the occurrence of these pandemics and the appearance of bright novae, e.g., Nova Eta Car. Four indices based on increased cosmic ray activity and novae are proposed to predict future influenza pandemics and viral antigenic shifts

  15. Non-stationary dynamics of climate variability in synchronous influenza epidemics in Japan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Onozuka, Daisuke; Hagihara, Akihito

    2015-09-01

    Seasonal variation in the incidence of influenza is widely assumed. However, few studies have examined non-stationary relationships between global climate factors and influenza epidemics. We examined the monthly incidence of influenza in Fukuoka, Japan, from 2000 to 2012 using cross-wavelet coherency analysis to assess the patterns of associations between indices for the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The monthly incidence of influenza showed cycles of 1 year with the IOD and 2 years with ENSO indices (Multivariate, Niño 4, and Niño 3.4). These associations were non-stationary and appeared to have major influences on the synchrony of influenza epidemics. Our study provides quantitative evidence that non-stationary associations have major influences on synchrony between the monthly incidence of influenza and the dynamics of the IOD and ENSO. Our results call for the consideration of non-stationary patterns of association between influenza cases and climatic factors in early warning systems.

  16. Sensitivity analysis of an individual-based model for simulation of influenza epidemics.

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    Elaine O Nsoesie

    Full Text Available Individual-based epidemiology models are increasingly used in the study of influenza epidemics. Several studies on influenza dynamics and evaluation of intervention measures have used the same incubation and infectious period distribution parameters based on the natural history of influenza. A sensitivity analysis evaluating the influence of slight changes to these parameters (in addition to the transmissibility would be useful for future studies and real-time modeling during an influenza pandemic.In this study, we examined individual and joint effects of parameters and ranked parameters based on their influence on the dynamics of simulated epidemics. We also compared the sensitivity of the model across synthetic social networks for Montgomery County in Virginia and New York City (and surrounding metropolitan regions with demographic and rural-urban differences. In addition, we studied the effects of changing the mean infectious period on age-specific epidemics. The research was performed from a public health standpoint using three relevant measures: time to peak, peak infected proportion and total attack rate. We also used statistical methods in the design and analysis of the experiments. The results showed that: (i minute changes in the transmissibility and mean infectious period significantly influenced the attack rate; (ii the mean of the incubation period distribution appeared to be sufficient for determining its effects on the dynamics of epidemics; (iii the infectious period distribution had the strongest influence on the structure of the epidemic curves; (iv the sensitivity of the individual-based model was consistent across social networks investigated in this study and (v age-specific epidemics were sensitive to changes in the mean infectious period irrespective of the susceptibility of the other age groups. These findings suggest that small changes in some of the disease model parameters can significantly influence the uncertainty

  17. FluTE, a publicly available stochastic influenza epidemic simulation model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dennis L Chao

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Mathematical and computer models of epidemics have contributed to our understanding of the spread of infectious disease and the measures needed to contain or mitigate them. To help prepare for future influenza seasonal epidemics or pandemics, we developed a new stochastic model of the spread of influenza across a large population. Individuals in this model have realistic social contact networks, and transmission and infections are based on the current state of knowledge of the natural history of influenza. The model has been calibrated so that outcomes are consistent with the 1957/1958 Asian A(H2N2 and 2009 pandemic A(H1N1 influenza viruses. We present examples of how this model can be used to study the dynamics of influenza epidemics in the United States and simulate how to mitigate or delay them using pharmaceutical interventions and social distancing measures. Computer simulation models play an essential role in informing public policy and evaluating pandemic preparedness plans. We have made the source code of this model publicly available to encourage its use and further development.

  18. FluTE, a publicly available stochastic influenza epidemic simulation model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chao, Dennis L; Halloran, M Elizabeth; Obenchain, Valerie J; Longini, Ira M

    2010-01-29

    Mathematical and computer models of epidemics have contributed to our understanding of the spread of infectious disease and the measures needed to contain or mitigate them. To help prepare for future influenza seasonal epidemics or pandemics, we developed a new stochastic model of the spread of influenza across a large population. Individuals in this model have realistic social contact networks, and transmission and infections are based on the current state of knowledge of the natural history of influenza. The model has been calibrated so that outcomes are consistent with the 1957/1958 Asian A(H2N2) and 2009 pandemic A(H1N1) influenza viruses. We present examples of how this model can be used to study the dynamics of influenza epidemics in the United States and simulate how to mitigate or delay them using pharmaceutical interventions and social distancing measures. Computer simulation models play an essential role in informing public policy and evaluating pandemic preparedness plans. We have made the source code of this model publicly available to encourage its use and further development.

  19. Variation in loss of immunity shapes influenza epidemics and the impact of vaccination.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woolthuis, Rutger G; Wallinga, Jacco; van Boven, Michiel

    2017-09-19

    Protective antibody immunity against the influenza A virus wanes in 2-7 years due to antigenic drift of the virus' surface proteins. The duration of immune protection is highly variable because antigenic evolution of the virus is irregular. Currently, the variable nature of the duration of immunity has had little attention in analyses of the impact of vaccination, including cost-effectiveness studies. We developed a range of mathematical transmission models to investigate the effect of variable duration of immunity on the size of seasonal epidemics. The models range from simple conceptual to more realistic, by distinguishing between infection- versus vaccination-induced immunity, by inclusion of primary vaccine failure, by assuming a leaky vaccine, and by the inclusion of age-dependent contact patterns. We show that annual variation in the duration of immunity causes large variation in the size of epidemics, and affects the effectiveness of vaccination. Accumulation of susceptible individuals in one or more mild seasons results in a disproportionately large outbreak in a subsequent season. Importantly, variation in the duration of immunity increases the average infection attack rate when the vaccination coverage is around the outbreak threshold. Specifically, in a tailored age-stratified model with a realistic reproduction number (R 0 = 1.4) and vaccination coverage of 25%, we find that the attack rate in unvaccinated children (vaccination, and that vaccine effectiveness cannot be judged for each year in isolation. Our findings have implications for vaccination strategies that aim to maximize the vaccination coverage while extending the age range of persons eligible for vaccination.

  20. Surveillance and vaccine effectiveness of an influenza epidemic predominated by vaccine-mismatched influenza B/Yamagata-lineage viruses in Taiwan, 2011-12 season.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yi-Chun Lo

    Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: The 2011-12 trivalent influenza vaccine contains a strain of influenza B/Victoria-lineage viruses. Despite free provision of influenza vaccine among target populations, an epidemic predominated by influenza B/Yamagata-lineage viruses occurred during the 2011-12 season in Taiwan. We characterized this vaccine-mismatched epidemic and estimated influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE. METHODS: Influenza activity was monitored through sentinel viral surveillance, emergency department (ED and outpatient influenza-like illness (ILI syndromic surveillance, and case-based surveillance of influenza with complications and deaths. VE against laboratory-confirmed influenza was evaluated through a case-control study on ILI patients enrolled into sentinel viral surveillance. Logistic regression was used to estimate VE adjusted for confounding factors. RESULTS: During July 2011-June 2012, influenza B accounted for 2,382 (72.5% of 3,285 influenza-positive respiratory specimens. Of 329 influenza B viral isolates with antigen characterization, 287 (87.2% were B/Yamagata-lineage viruses. Proportions of ED and outpatient visits being ILI-related increased from November 2011 to January 2012. Of 1,704 confirmed cases of influenza with complications, including 154 (9.0% deaths, influenza B accounted for 1,034 (60.7% of the confirmed cases and 103 (66.9% of the deaths. Reporting rates of confirmed influenza with complications and deaths were 73.5 and 6.6 per 1,000,000, respectively, highest among those aged ≥65 years, 50-64 years, 3-6 years, and 0-2 years. Adjusted VE was -31% (95% CI: -80, 4 against all influenza, 54% (95% CI: 3, 78 against influenza A, and -66% (95% CI: -132, -18 against influenza B. CONCLUSIONS: This influenza epidemic in Taiwan was predominated by B/Yamagata-lineage viruses unprotected by the 2011-12 trivalent vaccine. The morbidity and mortality of this vaccine-mismatched epidemic warrants careful consideration of introducing a

  1. THE ANTIGENIC POTENCY OF EPIDEMIC INFLUENZA VIRUS FOLLOWING INACTIVATION BY ULTRAVIOLET RADIATION

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salk, Jonas E.; Lavin, G. I.; Francis, Thomas

    1940-01-01

    A study of the antigenic potency of influenza virus inactivated by ultraviolet radiation has been made. Virus so inactivated is still capable of functioning as an immunizing agent when given to mice by the intraperitoneal route. In high concentrations inactivated virus appears to be nearly as effective as active virus but when quantitative comparisons of the immunity induced by different dilutions are made, it is seen that a hundredfold loss in immunizing capacity occurs during inactivation. Virus in suspensions prepared from the lungs of infected mice is inactivated more rapidly than virus in tissue culture medium. A standard for the comparison of vaccines of epidemic influenza virus is proposed. PMID:19871057

  2. Influenza epidemics in Iceland over 9 decades: changes in timing and synchrony with the United States and Europe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weinberger, Daniel M; Krause, Tyra Grove; Mølbak, Kåre; Cliff, Andrew; Briem, Haraldur; Viboud, Cécile; Gottfredsson, Magnus

    2012-10-01

    Influenza epidemics exhibit a strongly seasonal pattern, with winter peaks that occur with similar timing across temperate areas of the Northern Hemisphere. This synchrony could be influenced by population movements, environmental factors, host immunity, and viral characteristics. The historical isolation of Iceland and subsequent increase in international contacts make it an ideal setting to study epidemic timing. The authors evaluated changes in the timing and regional synchrony of influenza epidemics using mortality and morbidity data from Iceland, North America, and Europe during the period from 1915 to 2007. Cross-correlations and wavelet analyses highlighted 2 major changes in influenza epidemic patterns in Iceland: first was a shift from nonseasonal epidemics prior to the 1930s to a regular winter-seasonal pattern, and second was a change in the early 1990s when a 1-month lag between Iceland and the United States and Europe was no longer detectable with monthly data. There was a moderate association between increased synchrony and the number of foreign visitors to Iceland, providing a plausible explanation for the second shift in epidemic timing. This suggests that transportation might have a minor effect on epidemic timing, but efforts to restrict air travel during influenza epidemics would likely have a limited impact, even for island populations.

  3. Radioimmunoassay determination of antigenic concordance among hemagglutinins of vaccine and epidemic influenza virus strains

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Blokha, V.V.; Yamnikova, S.S.; Karpovich, L.G.; Yakhno, M.A.; Zakstel' skaya, L.Ya.

    Radioimmunoassay studies were conducted on the antigenic concordance of hemagglutinin of influenza A H3N2 viruses, to determine the suitability of vaccine strains in engendering immunity against viruses circulating in nature. Specifically, the inhibition studies involved the hemagglutinins of the A/Victoria/35/72 vaccine strain, the proposed vaccine strain A/Khabarovsk/15/76, and the RK-5 recombinant strains, containing antigenic determinants of viruses isolated in the 1972-1976 epidemic period (A/Victoria/3/75, A/Leningrad/173/75, A/Victoria/112/76). The results showed that A/Victoria/35/72 is becoming less important as a vaccine, but that RK-5 and A/Khabarovsk/15/76 can provide significant immunity with respect to influenza viruses circulating in 1975-1976. These observations point to the usefulness of radioimmunoassay in assessing the suitability of influenza A viruses for vaccine production. 12 references, 2 figures.

  4. Accurate estimation of influenza epidemics using Google search data via ARGO.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Shihao; Santillana, Mauricio; Kou, S C

    2015-11-24

    Accurate real-time tracking of influenza outbreaks helps public health officials make timely and meaningful decisions that could save lives. We propose an influenza tracking model, ARGO (AutoRegression with GOogle search data), that uses publicly available online search data. In addition to having a rigorous statistical foundation, ARGO outperforms all previously available Google-search-based tracking models, including the latest version of Google Flu Trends, even though it uses only low-quality search data as input from publicly available Google Trends and Google Correlate websites. ARGO not only incorporates the seasonality in influenza epidemics but also captures changes in people's online search behavior over time. ARGO is also flexible, self-correcting, robust, and scalable, making it a potentially powerful tool that can be used for real-time tracking of other social events at multiple temporal and spatial resolutions.

  5. Identification of Keywords From Twitter and Web Blog Posts to Detect Influenza Epidemics in Korea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woo, Hyekyung; Sung Cho, Hyeon; Shim, Eunyoung; Lee, Jong Koo; Lee, Kihwang; Song, Gilyoung; Cho, Youngtae

    2017-07-31

    Social media data are a highly contextual health information source. The objective of this study was to identify Korean keywords for detecting influenza epidemics from social media data. We included data from Twitter and online blog posts to obtain a sufficient number of candidate indicators and to represent a larger proportion of the Korean population. We performed the following steps: initial keyword selection; generation of a keyword time series using a preprocessing approach; optimal feature selection; model building and validation using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator, support vector machine (SVM), and random forest regression (RFR). A total of 15 keywords optimally detected the influenza epidemic, evenly distributed across Twitter and blog data sources. Model estimates generated using our SVM model were highly correlated with recent influenza incidence data. The basic principles underpinning our approach could be applied to other countries, languages, infectious diseases, and social media sources. Social media monitoring using our approach may support and extend the capacity of traditional surveillance systems for detecting emerging influenza. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2017;page 1 of 8).

  6. Comparison of filtering methods for the modeling and retrospective forecasting of influenza epidemics.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wan Yang

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available A variety of filtering methods enable the recursive estimation of system state variables and inference of model parameters. These methods have found application in a range of disciplines and settings, including engineering design and forecasting, and, over the last two decades, have been applied to infectious disease epidemiology. For any system of interest, the ideal filter depends on the nonlinearity and complexity of the model to which it is applied, the quality and abundance of observations being entrained, and the ultimate application (e.g. forecast, parameter estimation, etc.. Here, we compare the performance of six state-of-the-art filter methods when used to model and forecast influenza activity. Three particle filters--a basic particle filter (PF with resampling and regularization, maximum likelihood estimation via iterated filtering (MIF, and particle Markov chain Monte Carlo (pMCMC--and three ensemble filters--the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF, the ensemble adjustment Kalman filter (EAKF, and the rank histogram filter (RHF--were used in conjunction with a humidity-forced susceptible-infectious-recovered-susceptible (SIRS model and weekly estimates of influenza incidence. The modeling frameworks, first validated with synthetic influenza epidemic data, were then applied to fit and retrospectively forecast the historical incidence time series of seven influenza epidemics during 2003-2012, for 115 cities in the United States. Results suggest that when using the SIRS model the ensemble filters and the basic PF are more capable of faithfully recreating historical influenza incidence time series, while the MIF and pMCMC do not perform as well for multimodal outbreaks. For forecast of the week with the highest influenza activity, the accuracies of the six model-filter frameworks are comparable; the three particle filters perform slightly better predicting peaks 1-5 weeks in the future; the ensemble filters are more accurate predicting peaks in

  7. Healthcare seeking behavior of patients with influenza like illness: comparison of the summer and winter influenza epidemics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meng, Huaiqing; Liao, Qiuyan; Suen, Lorna Kwai Ping; O'Donoghue, Margaret; Wong, Chit Ming; Yang, Lin

    2016-09-20

    Influenza often causes winter and summer epidemics in subtropical regions, but few studies have investigated the difference in healthcare seeking behavior of patients with influenza-like illness (ILI) between these two epidemics. Household telephone surveys were conducted using random digit dialing in Hong Kong during July-August 2014 and March-April 2015. One adult from each household was interviewed for ILI symptoms and associated healthcare seeking behaviour of themselves and one child in the household (if any), during the preceding 30 days. Healthcare seeking behavior of respondents with self-reported ILI was compared between summer and winter influenza. Logistic regression was used to explore the factors associated with healthcare seeking behavior. Among 516 and 539 adult respondents in the summer and winter surveys, 22.6 and 38.0 % reported ILI symptoms, and 40.9 and 46.8 % of them sought medical care, respectively. There was no significant difference in healthcare seeking behavior between the summer and winter epidemics, except a higher proportion of self-medication in summer in the adult respondents. Among 155 and 182 children reported by the adults in both surveys, the proportion of self-reported ILI was 32.9 and 40.1 % in the summer and winter surveys, respectively. Of these children, 47.1 and 56.2 % were brought for medical consultation in summer and winter, respectively. Women, adults with diabetes and those with symptoms of cough, shortness of breath, and runny nose were more likely to seek medical consultations for ILI symptoms. The factors associated with seeking medical consultations in children with ILI symptoms included being female, age under 10 years, and with symptoms of sore throat or vomiting. Those older than 60 years were less likely to self-medicate, whereas regular smokers and those with symptom of sore throat were more likely to do so. Healthcare seeking behavior of the general public was not significantly different between these

  8. Influenza newspaper reports and the influenza epidemic: an observational study in Fukuoka City, Japan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hagihara, Akihito; Onozuka, Daisuke; Miyazaki, Shougo; Abe, Takeru

    2015-12-30

    We examined whether the weekly number of newspaper articles reporting on influenza was related to the incidence of influenza in a large city. Prospective, non-randomised, observational study. Registry data of influenza cases in Fukuoka City, Japan. A total of 83,613 cases of influenza cases that occurred between October 1999 and March 2007 in Fukuoka City, Japan. A linear model with autoregressive time series errors was fitted to time series data on the incidence of influenza and the accumulated number of influenza-related newspaper articles with different time lags in Fukuoka City, Japan. In order to obtain further evidence that the number of newspaper articles a week with specific time lags is related to the incidence of influenza, Granger causality was also tested. Of the 16 models including 'number of newspaper articles' with different time lags between 2 and 17 weeks (xt-2 to t-17), the β coefficients of 'number of newspaper articles' at time lags between t-5 and t-13 were significant. However, the β coefficients of 'number of newspaper articles' that are significant with respect to the Granger causality tests (pnewspaper articles at time lags between t-6 and t-10 (time shift of 10 weeks, β=-0.301, pnewspaper articles reporting on influenza in a week was related to the incidence of influenza 6-10 weeks after media coverage in a large city in Japan. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

  9. The 2009 pandemic in Mexico: Experience and lessons regarding national preparedness policies for seasonal and epidemic influenza.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cordova-Villalobos, Jose A; Macias, Alejandro E; Hernandez-Avila, Mauricio; Dominguez-Cherit, Guillermo; Lopez-Gatell, Hugo; Alpuche-Aranda, Celia; Ponce de León-Rosales, Samuel

    2017-01-01

    Influenza is a viral respiratory disease capable of causing epidemics that represent a threat for global security. Mexico was the first country to notify the WHO of an outbreak of what later became the first influenza pandemic of the 21st Century, caused by the virus A(H1N1)2009. Before this event Mexico had a national pandemic influenza preparedness plan, which included seasonal influenza vaccination, stockpiles of personal protection equipment and strategic drugs, and risk communication strategies. During the epidemic, the national public health laboratory network and case surveillance systems were strengthened together with surge capacities for intensive care and delivery of antiviral drugs. Risk communication was conducted for people to comply with implemented measures regarding social distancing (workplace and school closures, household quarantine). This report describes the Mexican experience during the 2009 influenza pandemic and the lessons that this experience provides to public health preparedness for future pandemics.

  10. Estimation of sickness absenteeism among Italian healthcare workers during seasonal influenza epidemics.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Michela Gianino

    Full Text Available To analyze absenteeism among healthcare workers (HCWs at a large Italian hospital and to estimate the increase in absenteeism that occurred during seasonal flu periods.Retrospective observational study.The absenteeism data were divided into three "epidemic periods," starting at week 42 of one year and terminating at week 17 of the following year (2010-2011, 2011-2012, 2012-2013, and three "non-epidemic periods," defined as week 18 to week 41 and used as baseline data. The excess of the absenteeism occurring among HCWs during periods of epidemic influenza in comparison with baseline was estimated. All data, obtained from Hospital's databases, were collected for each of the following six job categories: medical doctors, technical executives (i.e., pharmacists, nurses and allied health professionals (i.e., radiographers, other executives (i.e., engineers, nonmedical support staff, and administrative staff. The HCWs were classified by: in and no-contact; vaccinated and unvaccinated.5,544, 5,369, and 5,291 workers in three years were studied. The average duration of absenteeism during the epidemic periods increased among all employees by +2.07 days/person (from 2.99 to 5.06, and the relative increase ranged from 64-94% among the different job categories. Workers not in contact with patients experienced a slightly greater increase in absenteeism (+2.28 days/person, from 2.73 to 5.01 than did employees in contact with patients (+2.04, from 3.04 to 5.08. The vaccination rate among HCWs was below 3%, however the higher excess of absenteeism rate among unvaccinated in comparison with vaccinated workers was observed during the epidemic periods (2.09 vs 1.45 days/person.The influenza-related absenteeism during epidemic periods was quantified as totaling more than 11,000 days/year at the Italian hospital studied. This result confirms the economic impact of sick leave on healthcare systems and stresses on the necessity of encouraging HCWs to be immunized

  11. Estimation of sickness absenteeism among Italian healthcare workers during seasonal influenza epidemics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gianino, Maria Michela; Politano, Gianfranco; Scarmozzino, Antonio; Charrier, Lorena; Testa, Marco; Giacomelli, Sebastian; Benso, Alfredo; Zotti, Carla Maria

    2017-01-01

    To analyze absenteeism among healthcare workers (HCWs) at a large Italian hospital and to estimate the increase in absenteeism that occurred during seasonal flu periods. Retrospective observational study. The absenteeism data were divided into three "epidemic periods," starting at week 42 of one year and terminating at week 17 of the following year (2010-2011, 2011-2012, 2012-2013), and three "non-epidemic periods," defined as week 18 to week 41 and used as baseline data. The excess of the absenteeism occurring among HCWs during periods of epidemic influenza in comparison with baseline was estimated. All data, obtained from Hospital's databases, were collected for each of the following six job categories: medical doctors, technical executives (i.e., pharmacists), nurses and allied health professionals (i.e., radiographers), other executives (i.e., engineers), nonmedical support staff, and administrative staff. The HCWs were classified by: in and no-contact; vaccinated and unvaccinated. 5,544, 5,369, and 5,291 workers in three years were studied. The average duration of absenteeism during the epidemic periods increased among all employees by +2.07 days/person (from 2.99 to 5.06), and the relative increase ranged from 64-94% among the different job categories. Workers not in contact with patients experienced a slightly greater increase in absenteeism (+2.28 days/person, from 2.73 to 5.01) than did employees in contact with patients (+2.04, from 3.04 to 5.08). The vaccination rate among HCWs was below 3%, however the higher excess of absenteeism rate among unvaccinated in comparison with vaccinated workers was observed during the epidemic periods (2.09 vs 1.45 days/person). The influenza-related absenteeism during epidemic periods was quantified as totaling more than 11,000 days/year at the Italian hospital studied. This result confirms the economic impact of sick leave on healthcare systems and stresses on the necessity of encouraging HCWs to be immunized against

  12. Epidemic of wild-origin H1NX avian influenza viruses in Anhui, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ge, Ye; Yao, Qiu-Cheng; Wang, Xian-Fu; Fan, Zhi-Qiang; Deng, Guo-Hua; Chai, Hong-Liang; Chen, Hua-Lan; Hua, Yu-Ping

    2017-07-03

    As the natural hosts of avian influenza viruses (AIVs), aquatic and migratory birds provide a gene pool for genetic transfer among species and across species, forming transient "genome constellations." This work describes the phylogenetic dynamics of H1NX based on the complete molecular characterization of eight genes of viruses that were collected from 2014 to 2015 in Anhui Province, China. Hemagglutination and hemagglutination inhibition tests were used to determine the hemagglutination (HA) activity of the HA subtypes. The entire genomes of the viruses were sequenced on an ABI PRISM 3500xl DNA Analyzer. The sequences were genetically analysed to study their genetic evolution using DNASTAR and MEGA 6. The pathogenic effects of the viruses were evaluated using mouse infection models. Seven strains of the H1 subtype avian influenza virus were isolated. Phylogenetic analysis indicated natural recombination of the H1 influenza viruses between the Eurasian lineage and the North American lineage. Some genes had high sequence identity with A/bean goose/Korea/220/2011(H9N2), which is a typical case involving viral reassortment between the Eurasian lineage and the North American lineage. The results of infection experiments in mice showed that the viruses could acquire the ability to multiply in mouse respiratory organs without adaptation. These findings suggest that continued surveillance of wild birds, particularly migratory birds, is important to provide early warning of possible H1 influenza epidemics and to understand the ecology of the virus.

  13. The influenza A(H1N1 epidemic in Mexico. Lessons learned

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arzoz-Padrés Jacqueline

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Several influenza pandemics have taken place throughout history and it was assumed that the pandemic would emerge from a new human virus resulting from the adaptation of an avian virus strain. Mexico, since 2003 had developed a National Preparedness and Response Plan for an Influenza Pandemic focused in risk communication, health promotion, healthcare, epidemiological surveillance, strategic stockpile, research and development. This plan was challenged on April 2009, when a new influenza A(H1N1 strain of swine origen was detected in Mexico. The situation faced, the decisions and actions taken, allowed to control the first epidemic wave in the country. This document describes the critical moments faced and explicitly point out the lessons learned focused on the decided support by the government, the National Pandemic Influenza Plan, the coordination among all the government levels, the presence and solidarity of international organizations with timely and daily information, diagnosis and the positive effect on the population following the preventive hygienic measures recommended by the health authorities. The international community will be able to use the Mexican experience in the interest of global health.

  14. The influenza epidemic of 1918 and the adivasis of Western India

    OpenAIRE

    Hardiman, David

    2012-01-01

    The influenza epidemic of 1918 was the single worst outbreak of this disease known in history. This article examines an area of western India that was affected very badly—that of a tract inhabited by impoverished indigenous peoples, who are known in India as adivasis. The reasons for this are discussed. Some oral accounts help to bring out the enduring memory of that terrible time. The general health of the adivasis and the existing medical facilities in this area are examined. Attempts to ch...

  15. Seasonal Influenza: An Overview

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Christina; Freedman, Marian

    2009-01-01

    Seasonal influenza is a major cause of morbidity and mortality in the United States. It also has major social and economic consequences in the form of high rates of absenteeism from school and work as well as significant treatment and hospitalization costs. In fact, annual influenza epidemics and the resulting deaths and lost days of productivity…

  16. Influenza and meningococcal disease: lessons for travellers and government from 2 epidemic diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Booy, Robert; El Bashir, Haitham; Rashid, Harunor; Shingadia, Delane; Haworth, Elizabeth

    2009-07-01

    Influenza and meningococcal disease are two serious diseases that are especially linked. Outbreaks of influenza have been frequently associated with secondary outbreaks of meningococcal disease. Travellers such as Hajj pilgrims are at particular risk, the most recent meningococcal outbreaks being in 2000 and 2001, while concern is rising that the annual pilgrimage, centred as it presently is on winter, may even become the epicentre of an avian influenza pandemic. Routine vaccination of pilgrims against meningococcal disease using a 4-valent product has been in place since 2002 with good effect, but influenza vaccine is not yet routinely required for all pilgrims despite the high proportion afflicted. Meningococcal polysaccharide vaccines are effective in older children and adults and this cheaper product can play a role in the short term management of meningococcal outbreaks due to serogroups A, C, W135 or Y. The impressively fast development of a C conjugate vaccine in the late 1990s was a credit to the close collaboration of pharma, academia and the executive. A similar alignment could accelerate the production of an efficacious and cost-effective H5N1 influenza vaccine through direct transparent competition with head-to-head randomised, double-blinded controlled trials. Both organisms have a propensity to mutate and adapt to immune pressure. There are lessons to be learnt from how we manage each for the control of the other.

  17. Model-Based Comprehensive Analysis of School Closure Policies for Mitigating Influenza Epidemics and Pandemics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fumanelli, Laura; Ajelli, Marco; Merler, Stefano; Ferguson, Neil M; Cauchemez, Simon

    2016-01-01

    School closure policies are among the non-pharmaceutical measures taken into consideration to mitigate influenza epidemics and pandemics spread. However, a systematic review of the effectiveness of alternative closure policies has yet to emerge. Here we perform a model-based analysis of four types of school closure, ranging from the nationwide closure of all schools at the same time to reactive gradual closure, starting from class-by-class, then grades and finally the whole school. We consider policies based on triggers that are feasible to monitor, such as school absenteeism and national ILI surveillance system. We found that, under specific constraints on the average number of weeks lost per student, reactive school-by-school, gradual, and county-wide closure give comparable outcomes in terms of optimal infection attack rate reduction, peak incidence reduction or peak delay. Optimal implementations generally require short closures of one week each; this duration is long enough to break the transmission chain without leading to unnecessarily long periods of class interruption. Moreover, we found that gradual and county closures may be slightly more easily applicable in practice as they are less sensitive to the value of the excess absenteeism threshold triggering the start of the intervention. These findings suggest that policy makers could consider school closure policies more diffusely as response strategy to influenza epidemics and pandemics, and the fact that some countries already have some experience of gradual or regional closures for seasonal influenza outbreaks demonstrates that logistic and feasibility challenges of school closure strategies can be to some extent overcome.

  18. Universal influenza vaccines, science fiction or soon reality?

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Vries, Rory D; Altenburg, Arwen F; Rimmelzwaan, Guus F

    2015-01-01

    Currently used influenza vaccines are only effective when the vaccine strains match the epidemic strains antigenically. To this end, seasonal influenza vaccines must be updated almost annually. Furthermore, seasonal influenza vaccines fail to afford protection against antigenically distinct pandemic influenza viruses. Because of an ever-present threat of the next influenza pandemic and the continuous emergence of drift variants of seasonal influenza A viruses, there is a need for an universal influenza vaccine that induces protective immunity against all influenza A viruses. Here, we summarize some of the efforts that are ongoing to develop universal influenza vaccines.

  19. Phylogenetic analysis of influenza A viruses (H3N2 circulating in Zhytomyr region during 2013–2014 epidemic season

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Boyalska O. G.

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Aim. To perform phylogenetic analysis of the hemagglutinin (HA and neuraminidase (NA genes of influenza A(H3N2 viruses circulating in the Zhytomyr region during 2013–2014 epidemic season. To make comparison of the HA and NA genes sequences of the Zhytomyr region isolates with the HA and NA genes sequences of influenza viruses circulating in the world. Methods. Laboratory diagnosis was conducted by real-time polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR. In this study the sequencing and phylogenetic analysis were carried out. Results. For the first time the genes of influenza A(H3N2 viruses isolated in the Zhytomyr region during 2013–2014 epidemic season, coding hemagglutinin and neuraminidase were compared with their orthologs. According to the results of this comparison the phylogenetic tree was constructed. Additionally, the amino acid substitutions of the influenza viruses circulating in Ukraine and worldwide were analyzed. Conclusions. The nucleotide sequences of the influenza A(H3N2 viruses genes HA and NA isolated in the Zhytomyr region were identified. Based on the nucleotide sequences of HA and NA we constructed the influenza virus phylogenetic tree demonstrating that the virus isolated in the Zhytomyr region was closely related to the Ukrainian isolate from Kharkov and in the world to the isolates from Germany, Romania, Italy.

  20. Repeated annual influenza vaccination and vaccine effectiveness: review of evidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Belongia, Edward A; Skowronski, Danuta M; McLean, Huong Q; Chambers, Catharine; Sundaram, Maria E; De Serres, Gaston

    2017-07-01

    Studies in the 1970s and 1980s signaled concern that repeated influenza vaccination could affect vaccine protection. The antigenic distance hypothesis provided a theoretical framework to explain variability in repeat vaccination effects based on antigenic similarity between successive vaccine components and the epidemic strain. Areas covered: A meta-analysis of vaccine effectiveness studies from 2010-11 through 2014-15 shows substantial heterogeneity in repeat vaccination effects within and between seasons and subtypes. When negative effects were observed, they were most pronounced for H3N2, especially in 2014-15 when vaccine components were unchanged and antigenically distinct from the epidemic strain. Studies of repeated vaccination across multiple seasons suggest that vaccine effectiveness may be influenced by more than one prior season. In immunogenicity studies, repeated vaccination blunts the hemagglutinin antibody response, particularly for H3N2. Expert commentary: Substantial heterogeneity in repeated vaccination effects is not surprising given the variation in study populations and seasons, and the variable effects of antigenic distance and immunological landscape in different age groups and populations. Caution is required in the interpretation of pooled results across multiple seasons, since this can mask important variation in repeat vaccination effects between seasons. Multi-season clinical studies are needed to understand repeat vaccination effects and guide recommendations.

  1. THE COMPARATIVE SUSCEPTIBILITY OF FETAL AND POSTNATAL GUINEA PIGS TO THE VIRUS OF EPIDEMIC INFLUENZA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dettwiler, H A; Hudson, N P; Woolpert, O C

    1940-11-30

    Experiments were carried out to determine the relative susceptibility of guinea pigs at different ages to the virus of epidemic influenza. From a correlation of these studies on the mature fetus, the newborn, and the adult animal, with previously reported findings on the immature fetus, we draw two conclusions: first, that there is a gradually increasing resistance to infection with this virus during intrauterine development, with but little change thereafter; and second, that at the time of birth there is a sudden loss of infectibility by routes other than the intranasal. These results illustrate then the benefits which may accrue if one projects into the period of antenatal life studies dealing with the age factor in relation to susceptibility to infection. It is implied that data collected from observations of the postnatal animal alone are of necessity incomplete and may be misleading.

  2. No serological evidence that harbour porpoises are additional hosts of influenza B viruses

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    R. Bodewes (Rogier); M.W.G. van de Bildt (Marco); C.E. van Elk; P.E. Bunskoek (Paulien); D.A.M.C. van de Vijver (David); S.L. Smits (Saskia); A.D.M.E. Osterhaus (Albert); T. Kuiken (Thijs)

    2014-01-01

    textabstractInfluenza A and B viruses circulate among humans causing epidemics almost annually. While various hosts for influenza A viruses exist, influenza B viruses have been detected only in humans and seals. However, recurrent infections of seals in Dutch coastal waters with influenza B viruses

  3. Vaccination of high-risk patients against influenza : impact on primary care contact rates during epidemics. Analysis of routinely collected data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tacken, M A J B; Braspenning, J C C; Berende, A; Hak, E; De Bakker, D H; Groenewegen, P P; Grol, R P T M

    2004-01-01

    A general practice (GP) based retrospective cohort study was conducted to assess the effects of influenza vaccination on the primary care contact rate during influenza epidemics. Given the rising workload of family physicians, particularly due to ageing of the population, it is very relevant to know

  4. THE ORGANIZATION OF HOSPITAL CARE DURING THE EPIDEMIC OF INFLUENZA AND SARS FOR THE 2016 SEASON IN VELIKY NOVGOROD

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. V. Yuhno

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Analyzed organization of preventive measures and  patient  care  in  Velikiy Novgorod in  connection with  the  exceeding of the  epidemic threshold for influenza and  acute respiratory viral  infections in  2016.  The  epidemic rise  of influenza and  other  acute  respiratory viral  infections exceeded epidemiological and economic thresholds among  the cumulative population on the  territory  of the  Novgorod region started from the 3rd week 2016 (18.01.2016–24.01.2016 and continued for 4 weeks (until  mid February.  The peak  of the epidemic was passed on the 4th calendar week  of 2016, when  the weekly prevalence rate was 135,7 per 10 thousand population (8447,  the  epidemic  threshold was  exceeded in 2 times. In terms  of conversion to the  infectious diseases hospital, a multidisciplinary clinic № 2 «Central city clinical hospital» carried  out specialized medical assistance 301 the patient with  acute respiratory diseases and  influenza, 67 of which were confirmed influenza caused by the H1N1 virus, of which  28 patients would,  if hospitalized in serious  and critical condition and  needed to be held-Institute the  intensive care manual.

  5. Reconstruction of epidemic curves for pandemic influenza A (H1N1 2009 at city and sub-city levels

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wong Ngai Sze

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract To better describe the epidemiology of influenza at local level, the time course of pandemic influenza A (H1N1 2009 in the city of Hong Kong was reconstructed from notification data after decomposition procedure and time series analysis. GIS (geographic information system methodology was incorporated for assessing spatial variation. Between May and September 2009, a total of 24415 cases were successfully geocoded, out of 25473 (95.8% reports in the original dataset. The reconstructed epidemic curve was characterized by a small initial peak, a nadir followed by rapid rise to the ultimate plateau. The full course of the epidemic had lasted for about 6 months. Despite the small geographic area of only 1000 Km2, distinctive spatial variation was observed in the configuration of the curves across 6 geographic regions. With the relatively uniform physical and climatic environment within Hong Kong, the temporo-spatial variability of influenza spread could only be explained by the heterogeneous population structure and mobility patterns. Our study illustrated how an epidemic curve could be reconstructed using regularly collected surveillance data, which would be useful in informing intervention at local levels.

  6. Connections: can the 20th century coronary heart disease epidemic reveal something about the 1918 influenza lethality?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M.I Azambuja

    Full Text Available This essay proposes that the ecologic association shown between the 20th century coronary heart disease epidemic and the 1918 influenza pandemic could shed light on the mechanism associated with the high lethality of the latter. It suggests that an autoimmune interference at the apoB-LDL interface could explain both hypercholesterolemia and inflammation (through interference with the cellular metabolism of arachidonic acid. Autoimmune inflammation, then, would explain the 1950s-60s acute coronary events (coronary thrombosis upon influenza re-infection and the respiratory failure seen among young adults in 1918. This hypothesis also argues that the lethality of the 1918 pandemic may have not depended so much on the 1918 virus as on an immune vulnerability to it, possibly resulting from an earlier priming of cohorts born around 1890 by the 1890 influenza pandemic virus.

  7. Reconstructing the 2003/2004 H3N2 influenza epidemic in Switzerland with a spatially explicit, individual-based model

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-01

    Background Simulation models of influenza spread play an important role for pandemic preparedness. However, as the world has not faced a severe pandemic for decades, except the rather mild H1N1 one in 2009, pandemic influenza models are inherently hypothetical and validation is, thus, difficult. We aim at reconstructing a recent seasonal influenza epidemic that occurred in Switzerland and deem this to be a promising validation strategy for models of influenza spread. Methods We present a spatially explicit, individual-based simulation model of influenza spread. The simulation model bases upon (i) simulated human travel data, (ii) data on human contact patterns and (iii) empirical knowledge on the epidemiology of influenza. For model validation we compare the simulation outcomes with empirical knowledge regarding (i) the shape of the epidemic curve, overall infection rate and reproduction number, (ii) age-dependent infection rates and time of infection, (iii) spatial patterns. Results The simulation model is capable of reproducing the shape of the 2003/2004 H3N2 epidemic curve of Switzerland and generates an overall infection rate (14.9 percent) and reproduction numbers (between 1.2 and 1.3), which are realistic for seasonal influenza epidemics. Age and spatial patterns observed in empirical data are also reflected by the model: Highest infection rates are in children between 5 and 14 and the disease spreads along the main transport axes from west to east. Conclusions We show that finding evidence for the validity of simulation models of influenza spread by challenging them with seasonal influenza outbreak data is possible and promising. Simulation models for pandemic spread gain more credibility if they are able to reproduce seasonal influenza outbreaks. For more robust modelling of seasonal influenza, serological data complementing sentinel information would be beneficial. PMID:21554680

  8. [Global public health: international health is tested to its limits by the human influenza A epidemic].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franco-Giraldo, Alvaro; Alvarez-Dardet, Carlos

    2009-06-01

    This article comes from the intense international pressure that follows a near-catastrophy, such as the human influenza A H1N1 epidemic, and the limited resources for confronting such events. The analysis covers prevailing 20th century trends in the international public health arena and the change-induced challenges brought on by globalization, the transition set in motion by what has been deemed the "new" international public health and an ever-increasing focus on global health, in the context of an international scenario of shifting risks and opportunities and a growing number of multinational players. Global public health is defined as a public right, based on a new appreciation of the public, a new paradigm centered on human rights, and altruistic philosophy, politics, and ethics that undergird the changes in international public health on at least three fronts: redefining its theoretical foundation, improving world health, and renewing the international public health system, all of which is the byproduct of a new form of governance. A new world health system, directed by new global public institutions, would aim to make public health a global public right and face a variety of staggering challenges, such as working on public policy management on a global scale, renewing and democratizing the current global governing structure, and conquering the limits and weaknesses witnessed by international health.

  9. Strategies for antiviral stockpiling for future influenza pandemics: a global epidemic-economic perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carrasco, Luis R; Lee, Vernon J; Chen, Mark I; Matchar, David B; Thompson, James P; Cook, Alex R

    2011-09-07

    Influenza pandemics present a global threat owing to their potential mortality and substantial economic impacts. Stockpiling antiviral drugs to manage a pandemic is an effective strategy to offset their negative impacts; however, little is known about the long-term optimal size of the stockpile under uncertainty and the characteristics of different countries. Using an epidemic-economic model we studied the effect on total mortality and costs of antiviral stockpile sizes for Brazil, China, Guatemala, India, Indonesia, New Zealand, Singapore, the UK, the USA and Zimbabwe. In the model, antivirals stockpiling considerably reduced mortality. There was greater potential avoidance of expected costs in the higher resourced countries (e.g. from $55 billion to $27 billion over a 30 year time horizon for the USA) and large avoidance of fatalities in those less resourced (e.g. from 11.4 to 2.3 million in Indonesia). Under perfect allocation, higher resourced countries should aim to store antiviral stockpiles able to cover at least 15 per cent of their population, rising to 25 per cent with 30 per cent misallocation, to minimize fatalities and economic costs. Stockpiling is estimated not to be cost-effective for two-thirds of the world's population under current antivirals pricing. Lower prices and international cooperation are necessary to make the life-saving potential of antivirals cost-effective in resource-limited countries.

  10. [The effects of closure to live poultry markets on Avian influenza A (H7N9) epidemics in China].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, T; Zhu, G H; Zhang, B; Song, T; Kang, M; Lu, J; Zhao, Y Q; Huang, Z; Huang, Y L; Wang, X J; Yang, X Y; Ma, W J

    2017-12-10

    Since March 2013, China had experienced five seasonal epidemics related to Avian influenza A (H7N9). An unprecedented outbreak of H7N9 epidemic started from September 2016, with 730 cases reported till June 30(th) 2017, in mainland China that caused profound influences on both social development and health of the people. As an emerging infectious disease, information on pathogenic characteristics, transmission patterns and other epidemiological features of H7N9 virus somehow remained unclear. Data from previous studies suggested that the live poultry market (LPM) seemed to have served as main places where H7N9 virus got originated, mutated, spread and thus infected the human beings. Hence, closure of LPMs was suggested a major measure to control and prevent H7N9 epidemics in China. However, the effectiveness of different ways of LPM closures on H7N9 epidemics had been controversial. This study systemically summarized the effects of different ways of LPM closures on H7N epidemics from previous studies, aiming to provide references for developing a better program on H7N9 control and prevention in the country.

  11. Will routine annual influenza prevention and control systems serve the United States well in a pandemic?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ringel, Jeanne S; Moore, Melinda; Zambrano, John; Lurie, Nicole

    2009-12-01

    To assess the extent to which the systems in place for prevention and control of routine annual influenza could provide the information and experience needed to manage a pandemic. The authors conducted a qualitative assessment based on key informant interviews and the review of relevant documents. Although there are a number of systems in place that would likely serve the United States well in a pandemic, much of the information and experience needed to manage a pandemic optimally is not available. Systems in place for routine annual influenza prevention and control are necessary but not sufficient for managing a pandemic, nor are they used to their full potential for pandemic preparedness. Pandemic preparedness can be strengthened by building more explicitly upon routine influenza activities and the public health system's response to the unique challenges that arise each influenza season (eg, vaccine supply issues, higher than normal rates of influenza-related deaths).

  12. EPIDEMIC RISE IN THE INCIDENCE OF INFLUENZA IN ST. PETERSBURG IN 2016

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    N. S. Bashketova

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Inf luenza and acute respiratory viral infections (ARVI account for up to 90% of the total reported infectious morbidity annually in Russia. The economic damage from these infections reaches 86% of the economic losses associated with infectious diseases. As a result of antigenic drift or a shift, new variants of the inf luenza virus, including pandemic strains, appear. In 2009, an inf luenza pandemic arose due to the shifter version of the inf luenza A (H1N1 pdm09 virus. This virus caused epidemic rises of inf luenza in the world in subsequent years. The aim of the study was to describe the epidemic process of inf luenza in January–March 2016 in St. Petersburg. Materials and methods. The incidence of inf luenza and acute respiratory viral infections in St. Petersburg was recorded according to statistical coupons by age groups of the population. Examined nasopharyngeal f lushes received no later than 3–4 days from the onset of the disease, and in case of a lethal outcome — sectional material (bronchi, trachea, lungs, spleen tissues. The detection of RNA of inf luenza viruses was carried out in RT-PCR (Amplicenc Inf luenza virus A/B, Amplicenc Inf luenza virus A/H1-swine-FL, Amplicenc Inf luenza virus A типа-FL,  «Interlabservice», Moscow. Isolation of inf luenza viruses from the clinical material was carried out on culture by the MDSC cell. Isolates were typed in RTGA with diagnostic sera to reference and epidemic inf luenza viruses. Isolation of inf luenza viruses from the clinical material was carried out on culture by the MDSC cell. Isolates were typed in RTGA with diagnostic sera to reference and epidemic inf luenza viruses. Results. In 2016, the incidence of inf luenza in St. Petersburg was 81.38 per 100 000 population and was 4.1 times higher than the incidence rate in 2015. The epidemic rise in the incidence of inf luenza and ARVI began with the 3rd calendar week, lasted 6 weeks, with a peak incidence at the 5th calendar week

  13. Farm Models and Eco-Health of Poultry Production Clusters (PPCs following Avian Influenza Epidemics in Thailand

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    Worapol Aengwanich

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Thailand is located in Southeast Asia and is a country that was affected by highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI epidemics during 2003–2004. Nevertheless, the Thai government’s issuance policy of strict control and prevention of the disease has resulted in efficient disease control of avian influenza (AI. Poultry farmers have been both positively and negatively affected by this policy. There are three poultry cluster models worthy of attention in Thailand: (1 egg chicken poultry clusters over ponds; (2 egg chicken poultry clusters in coops raised from the ground and managed by a cooperative; and (3 poultry clusters in closed coops under contract with the private sector. Following the AI epidemics, additional poultry husbandry and biosecurity systems were developed, thereby generating income and improving the quality of life for poultry farmers. Nevertheless, raising large clusters of poultry in the same area results in disadvantages, particularly problems with both air and water pollution, depending upon the environments of each poultry model. Furthermore, the government’s policy for controlling AI during epidemics has had a negative effect on the relationship between officials and farmers, due to poultry destruction measures.

  14. Contact reductions from live poultry market closures limit the epidemic of human infections with H7N9 influenza.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teng, Yue; Bi, Dehua; Guo, Xiaocan; Hu, Dingwen; Feng, Dan; Tong, Yigang

    2018-03-01

    An early steep increase in the number of humans infected with avian influenza A(H7N9) virus was observed in China, raising great public concern domestically and internationally. Little is known about the dynamics of the transmission contacts between poultry and human populations, although such understanding is essential for developing effective strategies to control this zoonosis. In this study, we evaluated the effects of contact reductions from live poultry markets (LPMs) closures on the transmission of H7N9 virus during epidemics in Guangdong Province, China. A mathematical model of the poultry-to-person transmission dynamics of H7N9 virus was constructed. The parameters in the model were estimated from publicly available data on confirmed cases of human infection and information on LPMs closure during 2013-2017. By fitting the model, we measured the time-dependent contact quantity of the susceptible population to LPMs. The results showed that periodic intervention strategies can greatly reduce the magnitude of outbreaks, and the earlier interventions for policy are implemented, the smaller is the outbreak. The control efforts for LPMs to decrease the contact quantity are critical in preventing epidemics in the long term. This model should provide important insights for the development of a national intervention strategy for the long-term control of avian influenza virus epidemics. Copyright © 2018 The British Infection Association. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Influenza A(H1N1)pdm 2009 and influenza B virus co-infection in hospitalized and non-hospitalized patients during the 2015-2016 epidemic season in Israel.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pando, Rakefet; Drori, Yaron; Friedman, Nehemya; Glatman-Freedman, Aharona; Sefty, Hanna; Shohat, Tamar; Mendelson, Ella; Hindiyeh, Musa; Mandelboim, Michal

    2017-03-01

    Influenza A and B viruses co-infections are rare events and mainly occurred in immunocompromised patients. In this study we report an unusually high occurrence of influenza A (H1N1)pdm 2009 and influenza B virus co-infections during the epidemic year 2015-2016. Nasopharyngeal swabs were collected from 1919 patients visiting 26 outpatient clinics distributed throughout Israel and presenting with influenza-like illness. In addition, hospitalized patient tested for influenza viruses were also included in the study. Patients samples collected between October 2015 and April 2016 were tested for the presence of influenza viruses by real-time PCR. Of the 1919 patient samples tested, 11 (0.6%) were co-infected with both influenza A(H1N1)pdm 2009 and influenza B/Victoria viruses. Similar observation was noted in four hospitalized patients during the same period. Patients at ages 1-72 years, and their clinical symptoms were similar to that of patients infected with either influenza A or B viruses. Of all patients, only one hospitalized patient was immunocompromised. Co-infection of influenza A(H1N1)pdm 2009 and influenza B viruses is an increasingly recognized phenomenon. This co-infection can occur not only in immunocompromised individuals, but also in immunocompetent patients. Although co-infection appears to be a rare event, it may still play a role in the epidemiology, pathogenicity and evolution of influenza viruses. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  16. Monitoring epidemic viral respiratory infections using one-step real-time triplex RT-PCR targeting influenza A and B viruses and respiratory syncytial virus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Papillard-Marechal, Solesne; Enouf, Vincent; Schnuriger, Aurélie; Vabret, Astrid; Macheras, Edouard; Rameix-Welti, Marie-Anne; Page, Bernard; Freymuth, François; van der Werf, Sylvie; Garbarg-Chenon, Antoine; Chevallier, Bertrand; Gaillard, Jean-Louis; Gault, Elyanne

    2011-04-01

    Rapid and specific diagnosis of influenza A/B and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) viruses is needed for optimal management of patients with acute respiratory infections. In this study, a one-step triplex real-time RT-PCR assay was developed for rapid diagnosis of influenza A/B and RSV infections to optimize diagnosis efficiency of acute respiratory infections. Cell-culture supernatants and clinical samples were used to evaluate specificity and sensitivity of the assay. The assay was used routinely during two winter epidemics for testing respiratory specimens from 2,417 patients. The limit of detection in cell-culture supernatant was 1-10 plaque forming units/input (influenza A/B) and 2 × 10(-2) 50% tissue culture infectious dose/input (RSV). In clinical samples, the assay was as sensitive as commercial molecular assays for the detection of each influenza A/B and RSV (Flu-A/B and RSV-A/B r-gene™) individually, and far more sensitive than antigen detection. During the winter 2008-2009, the assay identified 145 RSV, 42 influenza A, and one mixed RSV-influenza A infections among 298 patients. The next winter, the assay was used in two independent hospital laboratory settings. 776 patients were tested in one hospital and 1,343 in the other, resulting in 184 and 501 RSV, 133 and 150 influenza A, and 1 and 11 mixed RSV-influenza A infections, respectively, being detected. This new user-friendly assay allows rapid (within hours), effective molecular diagnosis of single or mixed infections involving influenza A (including seasonal A H1N1 and H3N2, and A(H1N1) 2009), influenza B, and RSV(A/B). The assay is very valuable for managing patients during winter epidemics when influenza and respiratory syncytial viruses co-circulate. Copyright © 2011 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

  17. Estimation of force of infection based on different epidemiological proxies: 2009/2010 Influenza epidemic in Malta

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Marmara

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Information about infectious disease outbreaks is often gathered indirectly, from doctor's reports and health board records. It also typically underestimates the actual number of cases, but the relationship between the observed proxies and the numbers that drive the diseases is complicated, nonlinear and potentially time- and state-dependent. We use a combination of data collection from the 2009–2010 H1N1 outbreak in Malta, compartmental modelling and Bayesian inference to explore the effect of using various sources of information (consultations, doctor's diagnose, swabbing and molecular testing on estimation of the effective basic reproduction ratio, Rt. Different proxies and different sampling rates (daily and weekly lead to similar behaviour of Rt as the epidemic unfolds, although individual parameters (force of infection, length of latent and infectious period vary. We also demonstrate that the relationship between different proxies varies as epidemic progresses, with the first period characterised by high ratio of consultations and influenza diagnoses to actual confirmed cases of H1N1. This has important consequences for modelling that is based on reconstructing influenza cases from doctor's reports.

  18. Prognostic factors for influenza-associated hospitalization and death during an epidemic

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hak, E; Verheij, T J; van Essen, G A; Lafeber, A B; Grobbee, D E; Hoes, A W

    To predict which patients with current high-risk disease in the community may benefit most from additional preventive or therapeutic measures for influenza, we determined prognostic factors for influenza-associated hospitalization and death in a general practice-based case-control study among this

  19. Epidemiology, Evolution, and Pathogenesis of H7N9 Influenza Viruses in Five Epidemic Waves since 2013 in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Su, Shuo; Gu, Min; Liu, Di; Cui, Jie; Gao, George F; Zhou, Jiyong; Liu, Xiufan

    2017-09-01

    H7N9 influenza viruses were first isolated in 2013 and continue to cause human infections. H7N9 infections represent an ongoing public health threat that has resulted in 1344 cases with 511 deaths as of April 9, 2017. This highlights the continued threat posed by the current poultry trade and live poultry market system in China. Until now, there have been five H7N9 influenza epidemic waves in China; however, the steep increase in the number of humans infected with H7N9 viruses observed in the fifth wave, beginning in October 2016, the spread into western provinces, and the emergence of highly pathogenic (HP) H7N9 influenza outbreaks in chickens and infection in humans have caused domestic and international concern. In this review, we summarize and compare the different waves of H7N9 regarding their epidemiology, pathogenesis, evolution, and characteristic features, and speculate on factors behind the recent increase in the number of human cases and sudden outbreaks in chickens. The continuous evolution of the virus poses a long-term threat to public health and the poultry industry, and thus it is imperative to strengthen prevention and control strategies. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  20. The highly pathogenic avian influenza A (H7N7) virus epidemic in the Netherlands in 2003 - lessons learned from the first five outbreaks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Elbers, A.R.W.; Fabri, T.; Vries, T.S.; Wit, de J.J.; Pijpers, A.; Koch, G.

    2004-01-01

    Clinical signs and gross lesions observed in poultry submitted for postmortem examination (PME) from the first five infected poultry flocks preceding the detection of the primary outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) of subtype H7N7 during the 2003 epidemic in the Netherlands are

  1. Multiple reassorted viruses as cause of highly pathogenic avian influenza A(H5N8) virus epidemic, the Netherlands, 2016

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beerens, Nancy; Heutink, Rene; Bergervoet, Saskia A.; Harders, Frank; Bossers, Alex; Koch, Guus

    2017-01-01

    In 2016, an epidemic of highly pathogenic avian influenza A virus subtype H5N8 in the Netherlands caused mass deaths among wild birds, and several commercial poultry farms and captive bird holdings were affected. We performed complete genome sequencing to study the relationship between the wild bird

  2. Epidemiological & clinical profile of influenza A (H1N1 2009 virus infections during 2015 epidemic in Rajasthan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bharti Malhotra

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Background & objectives: Pandemic influenza A (H1N1 2009 virus emerged in 2009 and caused pandemic with high morbidity and mortality in India and worldwide. The number of H1N1-positive cases varied in different years in Rajasthan. The objective of the study was to present the epidemiological profile of pandemic influenza A (H1N1 2009 virus cases in Rajasthan from January to March 2015. Methods: A retrospective descriptive, record-based analysis of suspected and confirmed cases of pandemic influenza A (H1N1 2009 virus infection in Rajasthan, India, from January to March 2015 was performed. Testing was done as per the Centers for Disease Control guidelines at nine laboratories approved by the Government of Rajasthan. Data were analyzed in terms of demographic characteristics, clinical presentation and outcome. Results: Among 18,187 tested cases, 6203 (34.10% were positive. Death occurred in 378 cases, with six per cent case fatality rate. Maximum number of cases (n=2801 and deaths (n=101 were from Jaipur zone. The highest number of cases, 47.60 per cent (2953/6203 and deaths, 52.11 per cent (197/378 were in the age group of 26-50 yr; 52.64 per cent (199/378 of deaths occurred in females. The highest number (63.5% of deaths was from urban areas. Associated risk factors were observed in 59.44 per cent of the death cases, pregnancy being the predominant predisposing factor. In 61.92 per cent of patients, death occurred within three days of hospitalization. Interpretation & conclusions: H1N1 epidemic caused high morbidity and mortality in early 2015, particularly in the younger and middle-aged population and pregnant women in Rajasthan State of India. The study highlights the regular surveillance of influenza like illness, early diagnosis and timely initiation of therapy in suspected cases.

  3. Epidemiological & clinical profile of influenza A (H1N1) 2009 virus infections during 2015 epidemic in Rajasthan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malhotra, Bharti; Singh, Ruchi; Sharma, Pratibha; Meena, Deepa; Gupta, Jyoti; Atreya, Aditya; Meena, B R

    2016-12-01

    Pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 virus emerged in 2009 and caused pandemic with high morbidity and mortality in India and worldwide. The number of H1N1-positive cases varied in different years in Rajasthan. The objective of the study was to present the epidemiological profile of pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 virus cases in Rajasthan from January to March 2015. A retrospective descriptive, record-based analysis of suspected and confirmed cases of pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 virus infection in Rajasthan, India, from January to March 2015 was performed. Testing was done as per the Centers for Disease Control guidelines at nine laboratories approved by the Government of Rajasthan. Data were analyzed in terms of demographic characteristics, clinical presentation and outcome. Among 18,187 tested cases, 6203 (34.10%) were positive. Death occurred in 378 cases, with six per cent case fatality rate. Maximum number of cases (n=2801) and deaths (n=101) were from Jaipur zone. The highest number of cases, 47.60 per cent (2953/6203) and deaths, 52.11 per cent (197/378) were in the age group of 26-50 yr; 52.64 per cent (199/378) of deaths occurred in females. The highest number (63.5%) of deaths was from urban areas. Associated risk factors were observed in 59.44 per cent of the death cases, pregnancy being the predominant predisposing factor. In 61.92 per cent of patients, death occurred within three days of hospitalization. H1N1 epidemic caused high morbidity and mortality in early 2015, particularly in the younger and middle-aged population and pregnant women in Rajasthan State of India. The study highlights the regular surveillance of influenza like illness, early diagnosis and timely initiation of therapy in suspected cases.

  4. Clinicopathologic Characteristics of Influenza А(H1n1pdm during 2015–2016 Epidemic Period in Elderly Persons

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O.N. Domashenko

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The objective of the study is to investigate clinical progression of influenza A(H1N1, influenzal pneumonia, pathomorphological pulmonary changes in the lungs in elderly persons in 2015–2016. Materials and methods. During 2015–2016 epidemic period 36 patients suffering from influenza А(H1N1 aged of 60–84 years old (24 male and 12 female patients were attended to the Donetsk Central Municipal Clinical Hospital № 1. Influenza with pneumonia was diagnosed in 24 patients (66.7 %. In 33.3 % the diagnosis of influenza А(H1N1 was confirmed by viral serology testing (hemagglutination-inhibition test, in 63.9 % — by the polymerase chain reaction method, including 87.5 % of deceased patients. Research findings. During 5 years prior to the disease there was no history of influenza vaccination in all patients. On the 5–9th sick day 66.7 % of the patients were hospitalized, 1 female patient (2.8 % was admitted to the department in 2 weeks after the disease onset. Apparent intoxication syndrome was observed from the first day of the disease in 41.7 % of patients with uncomplicated influenza. The duration of fever was 8.7 ± 2.6 days. All elderly patients with uncomplicated influenza recovered. Influenza complicated by pneumonia was diagnosed in 24 patients (66.7 %. In 36.1 % of patients pneumonia was total or subtotal, complicated by respiratory failure of II–III degree of severity. Patients suffering from influenza and influenzal pneumonia did not receive antiviral treatment with oseltamyvirum (Tamiflu due to the lack of this medicinal product in the pharmacy network under the conditions of the local armed conflict. Antibacterial therapy included intravenous meropenum, protected 3rd generation cephalosporins, respiratory fluoroquinolones, macrolides in usual dosages. Oxygen therapy was an indispensable condition for the complex treatment of patients with influenzal pneumonia via a facemask, airtight reservoir bag mask, airtight

  5. Influenza surveillance in Europe. Comparing intensity levels calculated using the Moving Epidemic Method.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Vega, Tomás

    2015-05-30

    Although influenza-like illnesses (ILI) and acute respiratory illnesses (ARI) surveillance are well established in Europe, the comparability of intensity among countries and seasons remains an unresolved challenge.

  6. Lessons from the epidemiological surveillance program, during the influenza A (H1N1 virus epidemic, in a reference university hospital of Southeastern Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Luiza Moretti

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: The case definition of influenza-like illness (ILI is a powerful epidemiological tool during influenza epidemics. METHODS: A prospective cohort study was conducted to evaluate the impact of two definitions used as epidemiological tools, in adults and children, during the influenza A H1N1 epidemic. Patients were included if they had upper respiratory samples tested for influenza by real-time reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction during two periods, using the ILI definition (coughing + temperature > 38ºC in period 1, and the definition of severe acute respiratory infection (ARS (coughing + temperature > 38ºC and dyspnoea in period 2. RESULTS: The study included 366 adults and 147 children, covering 243 cases of ILI and 270 cases of ARS. Laboratory confirmed cases of influenza were higher in adults (50% than in children (21.6% ( p < 0.0001 and influenza infection was more prevalent in the ILI definition (53% than ARS (24.4% (p < 0.0001. Adults reported more chills and myalgia than children (p = 0.0001. Oseltamivir was administered in 58% and 46% of adults and children with influenza A H1N1, respectively. The influenza A H1N1 case fatality rate was 7% in adults and 8.3% in children. The mean time from onset of illness until antiviral administration was 4 days. CONCLUSIONS: The modification of ILI to ARS definition resulted in less accuracy in influenza diagnosis and did not improve the appropriate time and use of antiviral medication.

  7. A Belief Rule-Based Expert System to Diagnose Influenza

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hossain, Mohammad Shahadat; Khalid, Md. Saifuddin; Akter, Shamima

    2014-01-01

    Influenza is a viral disease that usually affects the nose, throat, bronchi, and seldom lungs. This disease spreads as seasonal epidemics around the world, with an annual attack rate of estimated at 5%–10% in adults and 20%–30% in children. Thus, influenza is regarded as one of the critical healt...

  8. Influenza B vaccine lineage selection-An optimized trivalent vaccine

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    A. Mosterín Höpping (Ana); J.M. Fonville (Judith); C.A. Russell (Colin); S.L. James (Sarah ); D.J. Smith (Derek James)

    2016-01-01

    textabstractEpidemics of seasonal influenza viruses cause considerable morbidity and mortality each year. Various types and subtypes of influenza circulate in humans and evolve continuously such that individuals at risk of serious complications need to be vaccinated annually to keep protection up to

  9. Association between school closure and subsequent absenteeism during a seasonal influenza epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodriguez, Carla V; Rietberg, Krista; Baer, Atar; Kwan-Gett, Tao; Duchin, Jeffrey

    2009-11-01

    Mathematical models suggest that social distancing measures, such as school closures, may mitigate community transmission during an influenza pandemic. Because closures are disruptive to schools and families, they are rarely employed during seasonal influenza outbreaks. A rare circumstance enabled us to examine the association between school closure and absenteeism during a seasonal influenza outbreak when half of King County, Washington public schools closed for a winter recess 19-23 February 2007, while half remained open for all or part of the week. Using absenteeism as a proxy for influenza activity, we tested the hypothesis that schools on break would experience lower rates of post-break absenteeism than schools remaining open. We conducted daily retrospective and prospective surveillance from 5 February-9 March 2007 in schools on break (n = 256) and in session (n = 205). We use generalized estimating equations with Poisson distribution to evaluate whether mean absenteeism after the break differed between schools on break and those in session, adjusting for baseline absenteeism and repeated measurements by schools over time. Results indicate no difference in post-break absenteeism in schools on break compared with schools that remained in session (relative risk = 1.07 [95% confidence interval = 0.96-1.20]). This result held in elementary schools (1.00 [0.91-1.10]), where absenteeism patterns are thought to be most representative of community influenza activity. We did not find that school closure during a seasonal influenza outbreak reduced subsequent absenteeism. However, limitations in this "natural experiment" hampered our ability to detect a benefit if one truly was present.

  10. [Flu symptoms and preventive measures practiced by the inhabitants of Mexico City during the AH1N1 influenza epidemic].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cruz-Licea, Verónica; González-Domínguez, Fernando; Avila, Guillermina; Flisser, Ana

    2013-01-01

    To know the frequency of flu symptoms and describe preventive measures practiced by the inhabitants of Mexico City during the AH1N1 epidemic. A cross-sectional design was used and a survey containing demographic and health information was conducted in August and September 2009 in a sample of 4003 randomly selected people living in Mexico City. Referred flu symptoms were: 29% running nose, 25% cough, 25% throat infection, 17% muscle and joint pain, 10% respiratory problems, and 7% fever. Also 16% said having hypertension, 10% diabetes, and 2% morbid obesity. Among the preventive measures, 74% washed hands, 32% covered the nose and mouth with the forearm when coughing or sneezing, 28% used sanitizer gel five times a day in average, and 47% did not greet with a kiss or handshake. Almost all the population followed preventive measures and did not show high percentages of influenza symptoms. Useful elements for prevention were identified, such as the frequency of seasonal influenza vaccination, self-medication, and living with a person diagnosed with AH1N1. It is important to continue with mass communication to strengthen adequate hygiene and health measures.

  11. Multiple Genome Constellations of Similar and Distinct Influenza A Viruses Co-Circulate in Pigs During Epidemic Events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diaz, Andres; Marthaler, Douglas; Corzo, Cesar; Muñoz-Zanzi, Claudia; Sreevatsan, Srinand; Culhane, Marie; Torremorell, Montserrat

    2017-09-19

    Swine play a key role in the ecology and transmission of influenza A viruses (IAVs) between species. However, the epidemiology and diversity of swine IAVs is not completely understood. In this cohort study, we sampled on a weekly basis 132 3-week old pigs for 15 weeks. We found two overlapping epidemic events of infection in which most pigs (98.4%) tested PCR positive for IAVs. The prevalence rate of infection ranged between 0 and 86% per week and the incidence density ranged between 0 and 71 cases per 100 pigs-week. Three distinct influenza viral groups (VGs) replicating as a "swarm" of viruses were identified (swine H1-gamma, H1-beta, and H3-cluster-IV IAVs) and co-circulated at different proportions over time suggesting differential allele fitness. Furthermore, using deep genome sequencing 13 distinct viral genome constellations were differentiated. Moreover, 78% of the pigs had recurrent infections with IAVs closely related to each other or IAVs clearly distinct. Our results demonstrated the molecular complexity of swine IAVs during natural infection of pigs in which novel strains of IAVs with zoonotic and pandemic potential can emerge. These are key findings to design better health interventions to reduce the transmission of swine IAVs and minimize the public health risk.

  12. Assortativity and the Probability of Epidemic Extinction: A Case Study of Pandemic Influenza A (H1N1-2009

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hiroshi Nishiura

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Unlike local transmission of pandemic influenza A (H1N1-2009, which was frequently driven by school children, most cases identified in long-distance intranational and international travelers have been adults. The present study examines the relationship between the probability of temporary extinction and the age-dependent next-generation matrix, focusing on the impact of assortativity. Preferred mixing captures as a good approximation the assortativity of a heterogeneously mixing population. We show that the contribution of a nonmaintenance host (i.e., a host type which cannot sustain transmission on its own to the risk of a major epidemic is greatly diminished as mixing patterns become more assortative, and in such a scenario, a higher proportion of non-maintenance hosts among index cases elevates the probability of extinction. Despite the presence of various other epidemiological factors that undoubtedly influenced the delay between first importations and the subsequent epidemic, these results suggest that the dominance of adults among imported cases represents one of the possible factors explaining the delays in geographic spread observed during the recent pandemic.

  13. Slaughter of poultry during the epidemic of avian influenza in the Netherlands in 2003

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gerritzen, M.A.; Lambooij, E.; Stegeman, J.A.; Spruijt, B.M.

    2006-01-01

    During an outbreak of avian influenza in the Netherlands in spring 2003, the disease was controlled by destroying all the poultry on the infected farms and on all the farms within a radius of 3 km. In total, 30 million birds were killed on 1242 farms and in more than 8000 hobby flocks, by using

  14. Early experience of the pandemic influenza H1N1 2009 epidemic in Taiwan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tzong-Hann Yang

    2011-07-01

    Conclusion: When a patient presents with influenza-like acute febrile respiratory illness symptoms and is young in age, has a travel history involving an affected area, and is suffering from myalgia or leukopenia, physicians should be alerted to the possibility of novel H1N1 virus infection.

  15. Simulation suggests that rapid activation of social distancing can arrest epidemic development due to a novel strain of influenza

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kelly Heath

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Social distancing interventions such as school closure and prohibition of public gatherings are present in pandemic influenza preparedness plans. Predicting the effectiveness of intervention strategies in a pandemic is difficult. In the absence of other evidence, computer simulation can be used to help policy makers plan for a potential future influenza pandemic. We conducted simulations of a small community to determine the magnitude and timing of activation that would be necessary for social distancing interventions to arrest a future pandemic. Methods We used a detailed, individual-based model of a real community with a population of approximately 30,000. We simulated the effect of four social distancing interventions: school closure, increased isolation of symptomatic individuals in their household, workplace nonattendance, and reduction of contact in the wider community. We simulated each of the intervention measures in isolation and in several combinations; and examined the effect of delays in the activation of interventions on the final and daily attack rates. Results For an epidemic with an R0 value of 1.5, a combination of all four social distancing measures could reduce the final attack rate from 33% to below 10% if introduced within 6 weeks from the introduction of the first case. In contrast, for an R0 of 2.5 these measures must be introduced within 2 weeks of the first case to achieve a similar reduction; delays of 2, 3 and 4 weeks resulted in final attack rates of 7%, 21% and 45% respectively. For an R0 of 3.5 the combination of all four measures could reduce the final attack rate from 73% to 16%, but only if introduced without delay; delays of 1, 2 or 3 weeks resulted in final attack rates of 19%, 35% or 63% respectively. For the higher R0 values no single measure has a significant impact on attack rates. Conclusion Our results suggest a critical role of social distancing in the potential control of a future

  16. Novel framework for assessing epidemiologic effects of influenza epidemics and pandemics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reed, Carrie; Biggerstaff, Matthew; Finelli, Lyn; Koonin, Lisa M; Beauvais, Denise; Uzicanin, Amra; Plummer, Andrew; Bresee, Joe; Redd, Stephen C; Jernigan, Daniel B

    2013-01-01

    The effects of influenza on a population are attributable to the clinical severity of illness and the number of persons infected, which can vary greatly between seasons or pandemics. To create a systematic framework for assessing the public health effects of an emerging pandemic, we reviewed data from past influenza seasons and pandemics to characterize severity and transmissibility (based on ranges of these measures in the United States) and outlined a formal assessment of the potential effects of a novel virus. The assessment was divided into 2 periods. Because early in a pandemic, measurement of severity and transmissibility is uncertain, we used a broad dichotomous scale in the initial assessment to divide the range of historic values. In the refined assessment, as more data became available, we categorized those values more precisely. By organizing and prioritizing data collection, this approach may inform an evidence-based assessment of pandemic effects and guide decision making.

  17. High vaccination coverage is associated with low epidemic level of seasonal influenza in elementary schools: an observational study in Matsumoto City, Japan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uchida, Mitsuo; Kaneko, Minoru; Hidaka, Yoshihiko; Yamamoto, Hiroshi; Honda, Takayuki; Takeuchi, Shouhei; Saito, Masaya; Kawa, Shigeyuki

    2018-03-13

    Influenza virus transmission may be prevented by infection control measures, including vaccination, wearing a mask, gargling with water, and hand washing. It is unclear, however, whether these measures affect influenza epidemics in school settings. A prospective epidemiological survey in all public elementary schools in Matsumoto City, Japan, during the 2014/2015 season evaluated the number of diagnosed patients in each school and calculated the reproduction number of schoolchildren. At the end of the prospective survey, a cross-sectional survey evaluated the implementation of infection control measures in these schools. Both results were combined and associations among infection control measures including vaccination, mask wearing, hand washing, water gargling, and epidemic level were evaluated. Of the 13,217 schoolchildren in 29 schools, 2548 were diagnosed with seasonal influenza. A significant negative association was observed between vaccination coverage and reproduction number at each school, but not between other infection control measures and the reproduction number. A regression curve with exponential function was most predictive. At 0% vaccination, the reproduction number was estimated to be 1.39. These findings provide evidence that high vaccination coverage was associated with reduced epidemic levels in schools and suggest the need for increased vaccination of schoolchildren.

  18. Recurrent epidemic cycles driven by intervention in a population of two susceptibility types

    Science.gov (United States)

    Juanico, Drandreb Earl O.

    2014-03-01

    Epidemics have been known to persist in the form of recurrence cycles. Despite intervention efforts through vaccination and targeted social distancing, infectious diseases like influenza continue to appear intermittently over time. I have undertaken an analysis of a stochastic epidemic model to explore the hypothesis that intervention efforts actually drive epidemic cycles. Time series from simulations of the model reveal oscillations exhibiting a similar temporal signature as influenza epidemics. The power-spectral density indicates a resonant frequency, which approximately corresponds to the apparent annual seasonality of influenza in temperate zones. Asymptotic solution to the backward Kolmogorov equation of the dynamics corresponds to an exponentially-decaying mean-exit time as a function of the intervention rate. Intervention must be implemented at a sufficiently high rate to extinguish the infection. The results demonstrate that intervention efforts can induce epidemic cycles, and that the temporal signature of cycles can provide early warning of imminent outbreaks.

  19. History, Epidemic Evolution, and Model Burn-In for a Network of Annual Invasion: Soybean Rust.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanatkar, M R; Scoglio, C; Natarajan, B; Isard, S A; Garrett, K A

    2015-07-01

    Ecological history may be an important driver of epidemics and disease emergence. We evaluated the role of history and two related concepts, the evolution of epidemics and the burn-in period required for fitting a model to epidemic observations, for the U.S. soybean rust epidemic (caused by Phakopsora pachyrhizi). This disease allows evaluation of replicate epidemics because the pathogen reinvades the United States each year. We used a new maximum likelihood estimation approach for fitting the network model based on observed U.S. epidemics. We evaluated the model burn-in period by comparing model fit based on each combination of other years of observation. When the miss error rates were weighted by 0.9 and false alarm error rates by 0.1, the mean error rate did decline, for most years, as more years were used to construct models. Models based on observations in years closer in time to the season being estimated gave lower miss error rates for later epidemic years. The weighted mean error rate was lower in backcasting than in forecasting, reflecting how the epidemic had evolved. Ongoing epidemic evolution, and potential model failure, can occur because of changes in climate, host resistance and spatial patterns, or pathogen evolution.

  20. Factors influencing psychological distress during a disease epidemic: Data from Australia's first outbreak of equine influenza

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stevens Garry J

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In 2007 Australia experienced its first outbreak of highly infectious equine influenza. Government disease control measures were put in place to control, contain, and eradicate the disease; these measures included movement restrictions and quarantining of properties. This study was conducted to assess the psycho-social impacts of this disease, and this paper reports the prevalence of, and factors influencing, psychological distress during this outbreak. Methods Data were collected using an online survey, with a link directed to the affected population via a number of industry groups. Psychological distress, as determined by the Kessler 10 Psychological Distress Scale, was the main outcome measure. Results In total, 2760 people participated in this study. Extremely high levels of non-specific psychological distress were reported by respondents in this study, with 34% reporting high psychological distress (K10 > 22, compared to levels of around 12% in the Australian general population. Analysis, using backward stepwise binary logistic regression analysis, revealed that those living in high risk infection (red zones (OR = 2.00; 95% CI: 1.57–2.55; p Conclusion Although, methodologically, this study had good internal validity, it has limited generalisability because it was not possible to identify, bound, or sample the target population accurately. However, this study is the first to collect psychological distress data from an affected population during such a disease outbreak and has potential to inform those involved in assessing the potential psychological impacts of human infectious diseases, such as pandemic influenza.

  1. Real-time forecasting of an epidemic using a discrete time stochastic model: a case study of pandemic influenza (H1N1-2009

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nishiura Hiroshi

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Real-time forecasting of epidemics, especially those based on a likelihood-based approach, is understudied. This study aimed to develop a simple method that can be used for the real-time epidemic forecasting. Methods A discrete time stochastic model, accounting for demographic stochasticity and conditional measurement, was developed and applied as a case study to the weekly incidence of pandemic influenza (H1N1-2009 in Japan. By imposing a branching process approximation and by assuming the linear growth of cases within each reporting interval, the epidemic curve is predicted using only two parameters. The uncertainty bounds of the forecasts are computed using chains of conditional offspring distributions. Results The quality of the forecasts made before the epidemic peak appears largely to depend on obtaining valid parameter estimates. The forecasts of both weekly incidence and final epidemic size greatly improved at and after the epidemic peak with all the observed data points falling within the uncertainty bounds. Conclusions Real-time forecasting using the discrete time stochastic model with its simple computation of the uncertainty bounds was successful. Because of the simplistic model structure, the proposed model has the potential to additionally account for various types of heterogeneity, time-dependent transmission dynamics and epidemiological details. The impact of such complexities on forecasting should be explored when the data become available as part of the disease surveillance.

  2. Reverse Genetics of Influenza B Viruses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nogales, Aitor; Perez, Daniel R; Santos, Jefferson; Finch, Courtney; Martínez-Sobrido, Luis

    2017-01-01

    Annual influenza epidemics are caused not only by influenza A viruses but also by influenza B viruses. Initially established for the generation of recombinant influenza A viruses, plasmid-based reverse genetics techniques have allowed researchers the generation of wild type and mutant viruses from full-length cDNA copies of the influenza viral genome. These reverse genetics approaches have allowed researchers to answer important questions on the biology of influenza viruses by genetically engineering infectious recombinant viruses. This has resulted in a better understanding of the molecular biology of influenza viruses, including both viral and host factors required for genome replication and transcription. With the ability to generate recombinant viruses containing specific mutations in the viral genome, these reverse genetics tools have also allowed the identification of viral and host factors involved in influenza pathogenesis, transmissibility, host-range interactions and restrictions, and virulence. Likewise, reverse genetics techniques have been used for the implementation of inactivated or live-attenuated influenza vaccines and the identification of anti-influenza drugs and their mechanism of antiviral activity. In 2002, these reverse genetics approaches allowed also the recovery of recombinant influenza B viruses entirely from plasmid DNA. In this chapter we describe the cloning of influenza B/Brisbane/60/2008 viral RNAs into the ambisense pDP-2002 plasmid and the experimental procedures for the successful generation of recombinant influenza B viruses.

  3. ATTEMPTING TO PREDICT THE FATE OF AN ONGOING EPIDEMIC. LESSONS FROM A(H1N1 INFLUENZA IN USA.

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    Miguel Martín Martínez

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available An attempt is made to estimate the main parameters of the 2009 Influenza type A(H1N1 outburst in USA based on public information provided by Centers for Disease Control (CDC during the early stage of the epidemic. Given the ill-posed nature of the statistical problem, a nonlinear fuction estimation method (Gauss-Newton and Hooke Jeeves was combined with linearization procedures that allowed to set adequate initial guess values for estimation. Based on data until May 13th, 2009, the following values are predicted for the USA outbreak: Tau (time to the peak of incidence 32 days; R0 (number of secondary infections per infected individual 1.7; K (total number of cases 20000(15000-35000. These results are in good agreement with the values reported by the WHO's Rapid Assessment Team for the outburst in Mexico. The method can be applied in any setting where cumulative number of cases are properly recorded.

  4. Comparative epidemiology of influenza A and B viral infection in a subtropical region: a 7-year surveillance in Okinawa, Japan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iha, Yoshikazu; Kinjo, Takeshi; Parrott, Gretchen; Higa, Futoshi; Mori, Hideaki; Fujita, Jiro

    2016-11-08

    The epidemic patterns of influenza B infection and their association with climate conditions are not well understood. Influenza surveillance in Okinawa is important for clarifying transmission patterns in both temperate and tropical regions. Using surveillance data, collected over 7 years in the subtropical region of Japan, this study aims to characterize the epidemic patterns of influenza B infection and its association with ambient temperature and relative humidity, in a parallel comparison with influenza A. From January 2007 until March 2014, two individual influenza surveillance datasets were collected from external sources. The first dataset, included weekly rapid antigen test (RAT) results from four representative general hospitals, located in the capital city of Okinawa. A nation-wide surveillance of influenza, diagnosed by RAT results and/or influenza-like illness symptoms, included the age distribution of affected patients and was used as the second dataset. To analyze the association between infection and local climate conditions, ambient temperature and relative humidity during the study period were retrieved from the Japanese Meteorological Agency website. Although influenza A maintained high number of infections from December through March, epidemics of influenza B infection were observed annually from March through July. The only observed exception was 2010, when the pandemic strain of 2009 dominated. During influenza B outbreaks, influenza patients aged 5 to 9 years old and 10 to 14 years old more frequently visited sentinel sites. Although both ambient temperature and relative humidity are inversely associated with influenza A infection, influenza B infection was found to be directly associated with high relative humidity. Further studies are needed to elucidate the complex epidemiology of influenza B and its relationship with influenza A. In the subtropical setting of Okinawa, epidemics of influenza B infection occur from March to July following

  5. Factors influencing psychological distress during a disease epidemic: data from Australia's first outbreak of equine influenza.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, Melanie R; Agho, Kingsley E; Stevens, Garry J; Raphael, Beverley

    2008-10-03

    In 2007 Australia experienced its first outbreak of highly infectious equine influenza. Government disease control measures were put in place to control, contain, and eradicate the disease; these measures included movement restrictions and quarantining of properties. This study was conducted to assess the psycho-social impacts of this disease, and this paper reports the prevalence of, and factors influencing, psychological distress during this outbreak. Data were collected using an online survey, with a link directed to the affected population via a number of industry groups. Psychological distress, as determined by the Kessler 10 Psychological Distress Scale, was the main outcome measure. In total, 2760 people participated in this study. Extremely high levels of non-specific psychological distress were reported by respondents in this study, with 34% reporting high psychological distress (K10 > 22), compared to levels of around 12% in the Australian general population. Analysis, using backward stepwise binary logistic regression analysis, revealed that those living in high risk infection (red) zones (OR = 2.00; 95% CI: 1.57-2.55; p risk of high psychological distress than those living in uninfected (white zones). Although prevalence of high psychological distress was greater in infected EI zones and States, elevated levels of psychological distress were experienced in horse-owners nationally. Statistical analysis indicated that certain groups were more vulnerable to high psychological distress; specifically younger people, and those with lower levels of formal educational qualifications. Respondents whose principal source of income was from horse-related industry were more than twice as likely to have high psychological distress than those whose primary source of income was not linked to horse-related industry (OR = 2.23; 95% CI: 1.82-2.73; p assessing the potential psychological impacts of human infectious diseases, such as pandemic influenza.

  6. Changing human mobility and the spreading rate of global influenza outbreaks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Slaa, Jan Willem

    2010-01-01

    Influenza, commonly called the flu, is an infectious disease which causes up to 500,000 deaths annually during seasonal epidemics. Influenza viruses circulate in many different types and in many species, such as birds, swines and humans. When a new human

  7. Multi-agent modeling of the South Korean avian influenza epidemic

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    Kim Taehyong

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Several highly pathogenic avian influenza (AI outbreaks have been reported over the past decade. South Korea recently faced AI outbreaks whose economic impact was estimated to be 6.3 billion dollars, equivalent to nearly 50% of the profit generated by the poultry-related industries in 2008. In addition, AI is threatening to cause a human pandemic of potentially devastating proportions. Several studies show that a stochastic simulation model can be used to plan an efficient containment strategy on an emerging influenza. Efficient control of AI outbreaks based on such simulation studies could be an important strategy in minimizing its adverse economic and public health impacts. Methods We constructed a spatio-temporal multi-agent model of chickens and ducks in poultry farms in South Korea. The spatial domain, comprised of 76 (37.5 km × 37.5 km unit squares, approximated the size and scale of South Korea. In this spatial domain, we introduced 3,039 poultry flocks (corresponding to 2,231 flocks of chickens and 808 flocks of ducks whose spatial distribution was proportional to the number of birds in each province. The model parameterizes the properties and dynamic behaviors of birds in poultry farms and quarantine plans and included infection probability, incubation period, interactions among birds, and quarantine region. Results We conducted sensitivity analysis for the different parameters in the model. Our study shows that the quarantine plan with well-chosen values of parameters is critical for minimize loss of poultry flocks in an AI outbreak. Specifically, the aggressive culling plan of infected poultry farms over 18.75 km radius range is unlikely to be effective, resulting in higher fractions of unnecessarily culled poultry flocks and the weak culling plan is also unlikely to be effective, resulting in higher fractions of infected poultry flocks. Conclusions Our results show that a prepared response with targeted

  8. [Perception of epidemiological competencies by public health students in Mexico and Colombia during the influenza A (H1N1) epidemic].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Idrovo, Alvaro J; Fernández-Niño, Julián A; Bojórquez-Chapela, Ietza; Ruiz-Rodríguez, Myriam; Agudelo, Carlos A; Pacheco, Oscar E; Buitrago, Néstor; Nigenda, Gustavo

    2011-10-01

    Learn about the perception of public health students in Mexico and Colombia regarding the management of the influenza A (H1N1) epidemic to determine which curriculum contents in epidemiological education can be improved. Survey administered to graduate students during the epidemic, from June to August 2009. The 30 epidemiological competencies for "intermediate epidemiologists" of the Council of State and Territorial Epidemiologists were evaluated. The results were described through stratification by covariables, and the less developed competencies were identified through exploratory factor analysis. A total of 154 students participated, 55.8% of whom were in Mexico. Significant differences in the student profile from each country were observed, which partially explains the perception of response to the epidemic. The first factor, which explains 21.5% of the variance, had lower scores in the factor analysis. This factor was associated with competencies related to the links between health personnel and the community, in which knowledge of the social sciences and communication skills are relevant. The students perceived that the response to the epidemic could have been better. It is suggested that public health human resources education include subjects related to the impact of culture on behavior and thinking, recognition of the prejudices of experts, effective community-level communication, and the ability to adapt to new situations. The "natural experiment" of the epidemic facilitated the identification of areas of opportunity to improve the teaching of epidemiology to health personnel.

  9. Strategies for antiviral stockpiling for future influenza pandemics: a global epidemic-economic perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carrasco, Luis R.; Lee, Vernon J.; Chen, Mark I.; Matchar, David B.; Thompson, James P.; Cook, Alex R.

    2011-01-01

    Influenza pandemics present a global threat owing to their potential mortality and substantial economic impacts. Stockpiling antiviral drugs to manage a pandemic is an effective strategy to offset their negative impacts; however, little is known about the long-term optimal size of the stockpile under uncertainty and the characteristics of different countries. Using an epidemic–economic model we studied the effect on total mortality and costs of antiviral stockpile sizes for Brazil, China, Guatemala, India, Indonesia, New Zealand, Singapore, the UK, the USA and Zimbabwe. In the model, antivirals stockpiling considerably reduced mortality. There was greater potential avoidance of expected costs in the higher resourced countries (e.g. from $55 billion to $27 billion over a 30 year time horizon for the USA) and large avoidance of fatalities in those less resourced (e.g. from 11.4 to 2.3 million in Indonesia). Under perfect allocation, higher resourced countries should aim to store antiviral stockpiles able to cover at least 15 per cent of their population, rising to 25 per cent with 30 per cent misallocation, to minimize fatalities and economic costs. Stockpiling is estimated not to be cost-effective for two-thirds of the world's population under current antivirals pricing. Lower prices and international cooperation are necessary to make the life-saving potential of antivirals cost-effective in resource-limited countries. PMID:21296791

  10. [Estimation of the excess death associated with influenza pandemics and epidemics in Japan after world war II: relation with pandemics and the vaccination system].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ohmi, Kenichi; Marui, Eiji

    2011-10-01

    To estimate the excess death associated with influenza pandemics and epidemics in Japan after World War II, and to reexamine the relationship between the excess death and the vaccination system in Japan. Using the Japanese national vital statistics data for 1952-2009, we specified months with influenza epidemics, monthly mortality rates and the seasonal index for 1952-74 and for 1975-2009. Then we calculated excess deaths of each month from the observed number of deaths and the 95% range of expected deaths. Lastly we calculated age-adjusted excess death rates using the 1985 model population of Japan. The total number of excess deaths for 1952-2009 was 687,279 (95% range, 384,149-970,468), 12,058 (95% range, 6,739-17,026) per year. The total number of excess deaths in 6 pandemic years of 1957-58, 58-59, 1968-69, 69-70, 77-78 and 78-79, was 95,904, while that in 51 'non-pandemic' years was 591,376, 6.17 fold larger than pandemic years. The average number of excess deaths for pandemic years was 23,976, nearly equal to that for 'non-pandemic' years, 23,655. At the beginning of pandemics, 1957-58, 1968-69, 1969-70, the proportion of those aged pandemic' years. In the 1970s and 1980s, when the vaccination program for schoolchildren was mandatory in Japan on the basis of the "Fukumi thesis", age-adjusted average excess mortality rates were relatively low, with an average of 6.17 per hundred thousand. In the 1990s, when group vaccination was discontinued, age-adjusted excess mortality rose up to 9.42, only to drop again to 2.04 when influenza vaccination was made available to the elderly in the 2000s, suggesting that the vaccination of Japanese children prevented excess deaths from influenza pandemics and epidemics. Moreover, in the age group under 65, average excess mortality rates were low in the 1970s and 1980s rather than in the 2000s, which shows that the "Social Defensive" schoolchildren vaccination program in the 1970s and 1980s was more effective than the

  11. Reverse Genetics Approaches for the Development of Influenza Vaccines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nogales, Aitor; Martínez-Sobrido, Luis

    2016-01-01

    Influenza viruses cause annual seasonal epidemics and occasional pandemics of human respiratory disease. Influenza virus infections represent a serious public health and economic problem, which are most effectively prevented through vaccination. However, influenza viruses undergo continual antigenic variation, which requires either the annual reformulation of seasonal influenza vaccines or the rapid generation of vaccines against potential pandemic virus strains. The segmented nature of influenza virus allows for the reassortment between two or more viruses within a co-infected cell, and this characteristic has also been harnessed in the laboratory to generate reassortant viruses for their use as either inactivated or live-attenuated influenza vaccines. With the implementation of plasmid-based reverse genetics techniques, it is now possible to engineer recombinant influenza viruses entirely from full-length complementary DNA copies of the viral genome by transfection of susceptible cells. These reverse genetics systems have provided investigators with novel and powerful approaches to answer important questions about the biology of influenza viruses, including the function of viral proteins, their interaction with cellular host factors and the mechanisms of influenza virus transmission and pathogenesis. In addition, reverse genetics techniques have allowed the generation of recombinant influenza viruses, providing a powerful technology to develop both inactivated and live-attenuated influenza vaccines. In this review, we will summarize the current knowledge of state-of-the-art, plasmid-based, influenza reverse genetics approaches and their implementation to provide rapid, convenient, safe and more effective influenza inactivated or live-attenuated vaccines. PMID:28025504

  12. Improving risk models for avian influenza: the role of intensive poultry farming and flooded land during the 2004 Thailand epidemic.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas P Van Boeckel

    Full Text Available Since 1996 when Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza type H5N1 first emerged in southern China, numerous studies sought risk factors and produced risk maps based on environmental and anthropogenic predictors. However little attention has been paid to the link between the level of intensification of poultry production and the risk of outbreak. This study revised H5N1 risk mapping in Central and Western Thailand during the second wave of the 2004 epidemic. Production structure was quantified using a disaggregation methodology based on the number of poultry per holding. Population densities of extensively- and intensively-raised ducks and chickens were derived both at the sub-district and at the village levels. LandSat images were used to derive another previously neglected potential predictor of HPAI H5N1 risk: the proportion of water in the landscape resulting from floods. We used Monte Carlo simulation of Boosted Regression Trees models of predictor variables to characterize the risk of HPAI H5N1. Maps of mean risk and uncertainty were derived both at the sub-district and the village levels. The overall accuracy of Boosted Regression Trees models was comparable to that of logistic regression approaches. The proportion of area flooded made the highest contribution to predicting the risk of outbreak, followed by the densities of intensively-raised ducks, extensively-raised ducks and human population. Our results showed that as little as 15% of flooded land in villages is sufficient to reach the maximum level of risk associated with this variable. The spatial pattern of predicted risk is similar to previous work: areas at risk are mainly located along the flood plain of the Chao Phraya river and to the south-east of Bangkok. Using high-resolution village-level poultry census data, rather than sub-district data, the spatial accuracy of predictions was enhanced to highlight local variations in risk. Such maps provide useful information to guide

  13. Effectiveness of A(H1N1)pdm09 influenza vaccine in adults recommended for annual influenza vaccination

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gefenaite, G.; Tacken, M.A.; Bos, J.; Stirbu-Wagner, I.; Korevaar, J.C.; Stolk, R.P.; Wolters, B.; Bijl, M. van der; Postma, M.J.; Wilschut, J.; Nichol, K.L.; Hak, E.

    2013-01-01

    INTRODUCTION: Because of variability in published A(H1N1)pdm09 influenza vaccine effectiveness estimates, we conducted a study in the adults belonging to the risk groups to assess the A(H1N1)pdm09 MF59-adjuvanted influenza vaccine effectiveness. METHODS: VE against influenza and/or pneumonia was

  14. Effectiveness of A(H1N1)pdm09 influenza vaccine in adults recommended for annual influenza vaccination.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gefenaite, G.; Tacken, M.; Bos, J.; Stirbu-Wagner, I.; Korevaar, J.C.; Stolk, R.P.; Wolters, B.; Bijl, M.; Postma, M.J.; Wilschut, J.; Nichol, K.L.; Hak, E.

    2013-01-01

    Introduction: Because of variability in published A(H1N1)pdm09 influenza vaccine effectiveness estimates, we conducted a study in the adults belonging to the risk groups to assess the A(H1N1)pdm09 MF59-adjuvanted influenza vaccine effectiveness. Methods: VE against influenza and/or pneumonia was

  15. The influenza epidemic of 1889–90 in selected European cities – a picture based on the reports of two Poznań daily newspapers from the second half of the nineteenth century

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    Kempińska-Mirosławska, Bogumiła; WoŸniak-Kosek, Agnieszka

    2013-01-01

    The largest nineteenth-century epidemic of influenza, called ‘the Russian epidemic,’ arrived in Europe from the east in November and December of 1889. It was one of the first epidemics of influenza that occurred during the period of the rapid development of bacteriology. It was the first epidemic to be so widely commented on in the intensively developing daily press. Daily Polish newspapers published in Poznań, a Polish city that was then under Prussian rule, also had a share in providing information on the epidemic. Press reports not only referred to the local spread of the disease, but also discussed the situation in numerous, often distant, European cities, such as Paris, London, Vienna, and Berlin. Apart from data about where and when the illness occurred, the reports provided: descriptions of symptoms, treatment methods, data on morbidity and mortality, effect on individual people of high rank in the country, information on the activities of public authorities, and impact of the epidemic on daily life. The 1889–1890 influenza epidemic had 2 faces: the real one, discovered while being afflicted with the disease, and the media one, discovered through the information available in the press. PMID:24322721

  16. The global condition of epidemics: Panoramas in A (H1N1) influenza and their consequences for One World One Health programme.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tirado, Francisco; Gómez, Andrés; Rocamora, Verónica

    2015-03-01

    Among the most relevant elements contributing to define the One World One Health programme we find epidemics. The reason is that in recent decades, infectious diseases such as HIV/SIDA, SARS and Influenza have shown that we need new approaches and concepts in order to understand how biological emergencies and health alerts deploy new scales of action. Especially relevant has been the case of A(H1N1) influenza. This reached the status of global threat virtually from its onset, triggering an international response with a diffusion, visibility and rapidity unparalleled in previous health alerts. This article maintains that this global condition cannot be explained solely by the epidemiologic characteristics of the disease, such as mortality rate, severe cases, propagation capacity, etc. Resorting to the approach proposed by the Actor-Network Theory (ANT), this paper suggests that the action of certain socio-technical operators was what built a heterogeneous network of ideas, concepts and materials that turned the A (H1N1) influenza into a global-scale phenomenon with unprecedented speed. Among these operators, the most important ones were: the speaking position, a discourse about threat, the protocols and guidelines that were used and, lastly, the maps that allowed a real-time monitoring of the influenza. The paper ends with the notion of panorama, as defined by Bruno Latour: a suggestion to describe the common denominator of the aforementioned operators, and a means to foresee the development of global scales for certain health alerts. The paper will conclude by proposing that this type of analysis would allow the One World One Health to understand with greater precision the dynamic of epidemics and thus make its principles of action much more specific as well as its definition of what global health should be. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Effects of closing and reopening live poultry markets on the epidemic of human infection with avian influenza A virus

    OpenAIRE

    Lu, Jian; Liu, Wendong; Xia, Rui; Dai, Qigang; Bao, Changjun; Tang, Fenyang; Zhu, yefei; Wang, Qiao

    2015-01-01

    Abstract Live poultry markets (LPMs) are crucial places for human infection of influenza A (H7N9 virus). In Yangtze River Delta, LPMs were closed after the outbreak of human infection with avian influenza A (H7N9) virus, and then reopened when no case was found. Our purpose was to quantify the effect of LPMs? operations in this region on the transmission of influenza A (H7N9) virus. We obtained information about dates of symptom onset and locations for all human influenza A (H7N9) cases repor...

  18. Universal Influenza Vaccines, a Dream to Be Realized Soon

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Han Zhang

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Due to frequent viral antigenic change, current influenza vaccines need to be re-formulated annually to match the circulating strains for battling seasonal influenza epidemics. These vaccines are also ineffective in preventing occasional outbreaks of new influenza pandemic viruses. All these challenges call for the development of universal influenza vaccines capable of conferring broad cross-protection against multiple subtypes of influenza A viruses. Facilitated by the advancement in modern molecular biology, delicate antigen design becomes one of the most effective factors for fulfilling such goals. Conserved epitopes residing in virus surface proteins including influenza matrix protein 2 and the stalk domain of the hemagglutinin draw general interest for improved antigen design. The present review summarizes the recent progress in such endeavors and also covers the encouraging progress in integrated antigen/adjuvant delivery and controlled release technology that facilitate the development of an affordable universal influenza vaccine.

  19. Modelo para estimación del comportamiento epidémico de la influenza A (H1N1 en México Model to estimate epidemic patterns of influenza A (H1N1 in Mexico

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    Estela Navarro-Robles

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available OBJETIVO: Aplicar un modelo matemático para estimar el comportamiento epidémico de la influenza A (H1N1 en México durante las etapas de aplicación y suspensión de medidas para mitigar la epidemia. MÉTODOS: Se estimó el número reproductivo efectivo (R para cada estado de México mediante el modelo SIR (individuos susceptibles, infectados y removidos durante y después de la aplicación de las medidas de distanciamiento social a partir de los datos publicados por la Secretaría de Salud de México. RESULTADOS: Desde el inicio del brote hasta la suspensión de actividades escolares (28 de abril al 13 de mayo del 2009, la mediana nacional de R fue de 1,13. En el período posterior (14 de mayo al 17 de julio del 2009 la mediana nacional de R disminuyó a 1,01. CONCLUSIONES: Se demostró que se presentaron diversos escenarios de la epidemia a nivel nacional. Se sugiere tener en cuenta el comportamiento heterogéneo a nivel estatal para la toma de decisiones sobre la adopción de medidas para mitigar epidemias de influenza.OBJECTIVE: Apply a mathematical model to estimate the epidemic patterns of influenza A (H1N1 in Mexico during the stages of application and suspension of measures to mitigate the epidemic. METHODS: The effective reproductive number (R for each state of Mexico during and after the application of social distancing measures was estimated by the SIR model (susceptible, infected, and recovered individuals based on data published by the Ministry of Health of Mexico. RESULTS: From the beginning of the outbreak until suspension of school activities (28 April-13 May 2009, the national median of R was 1.13. In the following period (14 May-17 July 2009 the national median of R decreased to 1.01. CONCLUSIONS: It was demonstrated that several epidemic scenarios occurred at the national level. It is suggested that heterogeneous patterns at the state level be taken into account in decision-making on the adoption of measures to mitigate

  20. Chapter 1. Introduction. Recommendations and standard operating procedures for intensive care unit and hospital preparations for an influenza epidemic or mass disaster.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sprung, Charles L; Cohen, Robert; Adini, Bruria

    2010-04-01

    In December 2007, the European Society of Intensive Care Medicine established a Task Force to develop standard operating procedures (SOPs) for operating intensive care units (ICU) during an influenza epidemic or mass disaster. To provide direction for health care professionals in the preparation and management of emergency ICU situations during an influenza epidemic or mass disaster, standardize activities, and promote coordination and communication among the medical teams. Based on a literature review and contributions of content experts, a list of essential categories for managing emergency situations in the ICU were identified. Based on three cycles of a modified Delphi process, consensus was achieved regarding the categories. A primary author along with an expert group drafted SOPs for each category. Based on the Delphi cycles, the following key topics were found to be important for emergency preparedness: triage, infrastructure, essential equipment, manpower, protection of staff and patients, medical procedures, hospital policy, coordination and collaboration with interface units, registration and reporting, administrative policies and education. The draft SOPs serve as benchmarks for emergency preparedness and response of ICUs to emergencies or outbreak of pandemics.

  1. Evaluation of epidemic intelligence systems integrated in the early alerting and reporting project for the detection of A/H5N1 influenza events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barboza, Philippe; Vaillant, Laetitia; Mawudeku, Abla; Nelson, Noele P; Hartley, David M; Madoff, Lawrence C; Linge, Jens P; Collier, Nigel; Brownstein, John S; Yangarber, Roman; Astagneau, Pascal

    2013-01-01

    The objective of Web-based expert epidemic intelligence systems is to detect health threats. The Global Health Security Initiative (GHSI) Early Alerting and Reporting (EAR) project was launched to assess the feasibility and opportunity for pooling epidemic intelligence data from seven expert systems. EAR participants completed a qualitative survey to document epidemic intelligence strategies and to assess perceptions regarding the systems performance. Timeliness and sensitivity were rated highly illustrating the value of the systems for epidemic intelligence. Weaknesses identified included representativeness, completeness and flexibility. These findings were corroborated by the quantitative analysis performed on signals potentially related to influenza A/H5N1 events occurring in March 2010. For the six systems for which this information was available, the detection rate ranged from 31% to 38%, and increased to 72% when considering the virtual combined system. The effective positive predictive values ranged from 3% to 24% and F1-scores ranged from 6% to 27%. System sensitivity ranged from 38% to 72%. An average difference of 23% was observed between the sensitivities calculated for human cases and epizootics, underlining the difficulties in developing an efficient algorithm for a single pathology. However, the sensitivity increased to 93% when the virtual combined system was considered, clearly illustrating complementarities between individual systems. The average delay between the detection of A/H5N1 events by the systems and their official reporting by WHO or OIE was 10.2 days (95% CI: 6.7-13.8). This work illustrates the diversity in implemented epidemic intelligence activities, differences in system's designs, and the potential added values and opportunities for synergy between systems, between users and between systems and users.

  2. Influenza interaction with cocirculating pathogens and its impact on surveillance, pathogenesis, and epidemic profile: A key role for mathematical modelling.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lulla Opatowski

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Evidence is mounting that influenza virus interacts with other pathogens colonising or infecting the human respiratory tract. Taking into account interactions with other pathogens may be critical to determining the real influenza burden and the full impact of public health policies targeting influenza. This is particularly true for mathematical modelling studies, which have become critical in public health decision-making. Yet models usually focus on influenza virus acquisition and infection alone, thereby making broad oversimplifications of pathogen ecology. Herein, we report evidence of influenza virus interactions with bacteria and viruses and systematically review the modelling studies that have incorporated interactions. Despite the many studies examining possible associations between influenza and Streptococcus pneumoniae, Staphylococcus aureus, Haemophilus influenzae, Neisseria meningitidis, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV, human rhinoviruses, human parainfluenza viruses, etc., very few mathematical models have integrated other pathogens alongside influenza. The notable exception is the pneumococcus-influenza interaction, for which several recent modelling studies demonstrate the power of dynamic modelling as an approach to test biological hypotheses on interaction mechanisms and estimate the strength of those interactions. We explore how different interference mechanisms may lead to unexpected incidence trends and possible misinterpretation, and we illustrate the impact of interactions on public health surveillance using simple transmission models. We demonstrate that the development of multipathogen models is essential to assessing the true public health burden of influenza and that it is needed to help improve planning and evaluation of control measures. Finally, we identify the public health, surveillance, modelling, and biological challenges and propose avenues of research for the coming years.

  3. Decision-making Process by Users and Providers of Health Care Services During the AH1N1 Epidemic Influenza in Mexico: Lessons Learned and Challenges Ahead.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huízar-Hernández, Víctor; Arredondo, Armando; Caballero, Marta; Castro-Ríos, Angélica; Flores-Hernández, Sergio; Pérez-Padilla, Rogelio; Reyes-Morales, Hortensia

    2017-04-01

    The aim of the study was to analyze, using a decision analysis approach, the probability of severity of illness due to delayed utilization of health services and inappropriate hospital medical treatment during the 2009 AH1N1 influenza epidemic in Mexico. Patients with influenza AH1N1 confirmed by the polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test from two hospitals in Mexico City, were included. Path methodology based upon literature and validated by clinical experts was followed. The probability for severe illness originated from delayed utilization of health services, delayed prescription of neuraminidase inhibitors (NAIs) and inappropriate use of antibiotics was assessed. Ninety-nine patients were analyzed, and 16% developed severe illness. Most patients received NAIs and 85.9% received antibiotics. Inappropriate use of antibiotics was observed in 70.7% of cases. Early utilization of services increased the likelihood of non-severe illness (cumulative probability CP = 0.56). The major cumulative probability for severe illness was observed when prescription of NAIs was delayed (CP = 0.19). Delayed prescription of NAIs and irrational use of antibiotics are critical decisions for unfavorable outcomes in patients suffering influenza AH1N1. Copyright © 2017 IMSS. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Estimate of Novel Influenza A/H1N1 cases in Mexico at the early stage of the pandemic with a spatially structured epidemic model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colizza, Vittoria; Vespignani, Alessandro; Perra, Nicola; Poletto, Chiara; Gonçalves, Bruno; Hu, Hao; Balcan, Duygu; Paolotti, Daniela; Van den Broeck, Wouter; Tizzoni, Michele; Bajardi, Paolo; Ramasco, Jose J

    2009-11-11

    Determining the number of cases in an epidemic is fundamental to properly evaluate several disease features of high relevance for public health policies such as mortality, morbidity or hospitalization rates. Surveillance efforts are however incomplete especially at the early stage of an outbreak due to the ongoing learning process about the disease characteristics. An example of this is represented by the number of H1N1 influenza cases in Mexico during the first months of the current pandemic. Several estimates using backtrack calculation based on imported cases from Mexico in other countries point out that the actual number of cases was likely orders of magnitude larger than the number of confirmed cases. Realistic computational models fed with the best available estimates of the basic disease parameters can provide an ab-initio calculation of the number of cases in Mexico as other countries. Here we use the Global Epidemic and Mobility (GLEaM) model to obtain estimates of the size of the epidemic in Mexico as well as of imported cases at the end of April and beginning of May. We find that the reference range for the number of cases in Mexico on April 30th is 121,000 to 1,394,000 in good agreement with the recent estimates by Lipsitch et al. [M. Lipsitch, PloS One 4:e6895 (2009)]. The number of imported cases from Mexico in several countries is found to be in good agreement with the surveillance data.

  5. Individual Vaccination as Nash Equilibrium in a SIR Model with Application to the 2009-2010 Influenza A (H1N1) Epidemic in France.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laguzet, Laetitia; Turinici, Gabriel

    2015-10-01

    The vaccination against ongoing epidemics is seldom compulsory but remains one of the most classical means to fight epidemic propagation. However, recent debates concerning the innocuity of vaccines and their risk with respect to the risk of the epidemic itself lead to severe vaccination campaign failures, and new mass behaviors appeared driven by individual self-interest. Prompted by this context, we analyze, in a Susceptible-Infected-Recovered model, whether egocentric individuals can reach an equilibrium with the rest of the society. Using techniques from the "Mean Field Games" theory, we extend previous results and show that an equilibrium exists and characterizes completely the individual best vaccination strategy (with or without discounting). We also compare with a strategy based only on overall societal optimization and exhibit a situation with nonnegative price of anarchy. Finally, we apply the theory to the 2009-2010 Influenza A (H1N1) vaccination campaign in France and hint that a group of individuals stopped vaccinating at levels that indicated a pessimistic perception of the risk of the vaccine.

  6. Nephrologists need to play a key role in improving annual influenza vaccination rates in children with kidney disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scheuerman, Oded; Zilber, Eyal; Davidovits, Miriam; Chodick, Gabriel; Levy, Itzhak

    2017-05-01

    This study investigated the under-researched area of annual influenza vaccination rates in children with chronic kidney disease and identified reasons for nonimmunisation. A prospective cross-sectional study was conducted in the nephrology clinic and dialysis unit of a tertiary paediatric medical centre from August to October 2011 and September to October 2012. Parents were asked to complete a questionnaire on their child's immunisation against influenza. Of the 217 children studied, 45.6% were vaccinated against influenza. The major reason for nonimmunisation was because the parents had not received the necessary information from the primary physician or treating nephrologist. The nonvaccinated children were significantly more likely to be less than two years old and female and to have parents who did not believe in the benefits of vaccination (p vaccinate their child, 38% claimed they would have done so if the vaccine had been offered in the nephrology clinic. Children with kidney disease had a higher annual influenza vaccination rate than the general population, but it was still suboptimal. Nephrologists should be alerted to the need to provide parents with information on influenza vaccinations and they should be available in nephrology clinics. ©2017 Foundation Acta Paediatrica. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  7. Chapter 2. Surge capacity and infrastructure considerations for mass critical care. Recommendations and standard operating procedures for intensive care unit and hospital preparations for an influenza epidemic or mass disaster

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hick, John L.; Christian, Michael D.; Sprung, Charles L.; Camargo, Ruben; Ceraso, Daniel; Azoulay, Elie; Duguet, Alexandre; Guery, Benoit; Reinhart, Konrad; Adini, Bruria; Barlavie, Yaron; Benin-Goren, Odeda; Cohen, Robert; Klein, Motti; Leoniv, Yuval; Margalit, Gila; Rubinovitch, Bina; Sonnenblick, Moshe; Steinberg, Avraham; Weissman, Charles; Wolff, Donna; Kesecioglu, Jozef; de Jong, Menno; Moreno, Rui; An, Youzhong; Du, Bin; Joynt, Gavin M.; Colvin, John; Loo, Shi; Richards, Guy; Artigas, Antonio; Pugin, Jerome; Amundson, Dennis; Devereaux, Asha; Beigel, John; Danis, Marion; Farmer, Chris; Maki, Dennis; Masur, Henry; Rubinson, Lewis; Sandrock, Christian; Talmor, Daniel; Truog, Robert; Zimmerman, Janice; Brett, Steve; Montgomery, Hugh; Rhodes, Andrew; Sanderson, Frances; Taylor, Bruce; Monrgomery, Hugh

    2010-01-01

    To provide recommendations and standard operating procedures for intensive care unit (ICU) and hospital preparations for a mass disaster or influenza epidemic with a specific focus on surge capacity and infrastructure considerations. Based on a literature review and expert opinion, a Delphi process

  8. H3N2v and other influenza epidemic risk based on age-specific estimates of sero-protection and contact network interactions.

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    Danuta M Skowronski

    Full Text Available Cases of a novel swine-origin influenza A(H3N2 variant (H3N2v have recently been identified in the US, primarily among children. We estimated potential epidemic attack rates (ARs based on age-specific estimates of sero-susceptibility and social interactions. A contact network model previously established for the Greater Vancouver Area (GVA, Canada was used to estimate average epidemic (infection ARs for the emerging H3N2v and comparator viruses (H1N1pdm09 and an extinguished H3N2 seasonal strain based on typical influenza characteristics, basic reproduction number (R(0, and effective contacts taking into account age-specific sero-protection rates (SPRs. SPRs were assessed in sera collected from the GVA in 2009 or earlier (pre-H1N1pdm09 and fall 2010 (post-H1N1pdm09, seasonal A/Brisbane/10/2007(H3N2, and H3N2v by hemagglutination inhibition (HI assay. SPR was assigned per convention based on proportion with HI antibody titre ≥40 (SPR40. Recognizing that the HI titre ≥40 was established as the 50%sero-protective threshold we also explored for ½SPR40, SPR80 and a blended gradient defined as: ¼SPR20, ½SPR40, ¾SPR80, SPR160. Base case analysis assumed R(0 = 1.40, but we also explored R(0 as high as 1.80. With R(0 = 1.40 and SPR40, simulated ARs were well aligned with field observations for H1N1pdm09 incidence (AR: 32%, sporadic detections without a third epidemic wave post-H1N1pdm09 (negligible AR<0.1% as well as A/Brisbane/10/2007(H3N2 seasonal strain extinction and antigenic drift replacement (negligible AR<0.1%. Simulated AR for the novel swine-origin H3N2v was 6%, highest in children 6-11years (16%. However, with modification to SPR thresholds per above, H3N2v AR ≥20% became possible. At SPR40, H3N2v AR ≥10%, ≥15% or ≥30%, occur if R(0≥1.48, ≥1.56 or ≥1.86, respectively. Based on conventional assumptions, the novel swine-origin H3N2v does not currently pose a substantial pandemic threat. If H3N2v epidemics do occur

  9. Influenza epidemiology and influenza vaccine effectiveness during the 2014–2015 season: annual report from the Global Influenza Hospital Surveillance Network

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    Joan Puig-Barberà

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract The Global Influenza Hospital Surveillance Network (GIHSN has established a prospective, active surveillance, hospital-based epidemiological study to collect epidemiological and virological data for the Northern and Southern Hemispheres over several consecutive seasons. It focuses exclusively on severe cases of influenza requiring hospitalization. A standard protocol is shared between sites allowing comparison and pooling of results. During the 2014–2015 influenza season, the GIHSN included seven coordinating sites from six countries (St. Petersburg and Moscow, Russian Federation; Prague, Czech Republic; Istanbul, Turkey; Beijing, China; Valencia, Spain; and Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Here, we present the detailed epidemiological and influenza vaccine effectiveness findings for the Northern Hemisphere 2014–2015 influenza season.

  10. Evaluation of clinical features scoring system as screening tool for influenza A (H1N1 in epidemic situations

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    P Ranjan

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Influenza A (H1N1 hit the headlines in recent times and created mass hysteria and general panic. The high cost and non-availability of diagnostic laboratory tests for swine flu, especially in the developing countries underlines the need of having a cheaper, easily available, yet reasonably accurate screening test. Aims: This study was carried out to develop a clinical feature-based scoring system (CFSS for influenza A (H1N1 and to evaluate its suitability as a screening tool when large numbers of influenza-like illness cases are suspect. Settings and Design: Clinical-record based study, carried out retrospectively in post-pandemic period on subject′s case-sheets who had been quarantined at IG International Airport′s quarantine center at Delhi. Materials and Methods: Clinical scoring of each suspected case was done by studying their case record sheet and compared with the results of RT-PCR. RT-PCR was used to confirm the diagnosis (Gold Standard. Statistical Analysis: We calculated sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values of the clinical feature-based scoring system (the proposed new screening tool at different cut-off values. The most discriminant cut-off value was determined by plotting the ROC curve. Results: Of the 638 suspected cases, 127 (20% were confirmed to have H1N1 by RT-PCR examination. On the basis of ROC, the most discriminant clinical feature score for diagnosing Influenza A was found to be 7, which yielded sensitivity, specificity, positive, and negative predictive values of 86%, 88%, 64%, and 96%, respectively. Conclusion: The clinical features scoring system (CFSS can be used as a valid and cost-effective tool for screening swine flu (influenza A (H1N1 cases from large number of influenza-like illness suspects.

  11. Age-Specific Patterns of Influenza Activity in Utah: Do Older School Age Children Drive the Epidemic?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stockmann, Chris; Pavia, Andrew T; Hersh, Adam L; Spigarelli, Michael G; Castle, Brooks; Korgenski, Kent; Byington, Carrie L; Ampofo, Krow

    2014-06-01

    Across 12 consecutive influenza seasons in Utah, medically-attended visits for laboratory-confirmed influenza infection peaked first among older children (12-18 years). Peak activity in older children preceded that of children 0-4 years by more than 2 days and that of peak activity among adults ≥65 years by more than 6 days. © The Author 2013. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Pediatric Infectious Diseases Society. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  12. Influenza

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    Forleo-Neto Eduardo

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available A influenza (gripe é doença infecciosa aguda de origem viral que acomete o trato respiratório e a cada inverno atinge mais de 100 milhões de pessoas na Europa, Japão e Estados Unidos, causando anualmente a morte de cerca de 20 a 40 mil pessoas somente neste último país. O agente etiológico é o Myxovirus influenzae, ou vírus da gripe. Este subdivide-se nos tipos A, B e C, sendo que apenas os do tipo A e B apresentam relevância clínica em humanos. O vírus influenza apresenta altas taxas de mutação, o que resulta freqüentemente na inserção de novas variantes virais na comunidade, para as quais a população não apresenta imunidade. São poucas as opções disponíveis para o controle da influenza. Dentre essas, a vacinação constitui a forma mais eficaz para o controle da doença e de suas complicações. Em função das mutações que ocorrem naturalmente no vírus influenza, recomenda-se que a vacinação seja realizada anualmente. No Brasil, segundo dados obtidos pelo Projeto VigiGripe - ligado à Universidade Federal de São Paulo -, verifica-se que a influenza apresenta pico de atividade entre os meses de maio e setembro. Assim, a época mais indicada para a vacinação corresponde aos meses de março e abril. Para o tratamento específico da influenza estão disponíveis quatro medicamentos antivirais: os fármacos clássicos amantadina e rimantidina e os antivirais de segunda geração oseltamivir e zanamivir. Os últimos, acrescentam alternativas para o tratamento da influenza e ampliam as opções disponíveis para o seu controle.

  13. Successive annual influenza vaccination induces a recurrent oligoclonotypic memory response in circulating T follicular helper cells

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herati, Ramin Sedaghat; Muselman, Alexander; Vella, Laura; Bengsch, Bertram; Parkhouse, Kaela; Del Alcazar, Daniel; Kotzin, Jonathan; Doyle, Susan A.; Tebas, Pablo; Hensley, Scott E.; Su, Laura F.; Schmader, Kenneth E.; Wherry, E. John

    2017-01-01

    T follicular helper (Tfh) CD4 cells are crucial providers of B cell help during adaptive immune responses. A circulating population of CD4 T cells, termed cTfh, have similarity to lymphoid Tfh, can provide B cell help, and responded to influenza vaccination. However, it is unclear whether human vaccination-induced cTfh respond in an antigen-specific manner and whether they form long-lasting memory. Here, we identified a cTfh population that expressed multiple T cell activation markers and could be readily identified by coexpression of ICOS and CD38. This subset expressed more Bcl-6, c-Maf, and IL-21 than other blood CD4 subsets. Influenza vaccination induced a strong response in the ICOS+CD38+ cTfh at day 7, and this population included hemagglutinin-specific cells by tetramer staining and antigen-stimulated Activation Induced Marker (AIM) expression. Moreover, TCRB sequencing identified a clonal response in ICOS+CD38+ cTfh that correlated strongly with the increased circulating ICOS+CD38+ cTfh frequency and the circulating plasmablast response. In subjects who received successive annual vaccinations, a recurrent oligoclonal response was identified in the ICOS+CD38+ cTfh subset at 7 days after every vaccination. These oligoclonal responses in ICOS+CD38+ cTfh after vaccination persisted in the ICOS−CD38− cTfh repertoire in subsequent years, suggesting clonal maintenance in a memory reservoir in the more-stable ICOS−CD38− cTfh subset. These data highlight the antigen-specificity, lineage relationships and memory properties of human cTfh responses to vaccination, providing new avenues for tracking and monitoring cTfh responses during infection and vaccination in humans. PMID:28620653

  14. Delayed norovirus epidemic in the 2009-2010 season in Japan: potential relationship with intensive hand sanitizer use for pandemic influenza.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Inaida, S; Shobugawa, Y; Matsuno, S; Saito, R; Suzuki, H

    2016-09-01

    Norovirus (NoV) epidemics normally peak in December in Japan; however, the peak in the 2009-2010 season was delayed until the fourth week of January 2010. We suspected intensive hand hygiene that was conducted for a previous pandemic influenza in 2009 as the cause of this delay. We analysed the NoV epidemic trend, based on national surveillance data, and its associations with monthly output data for hand hygiene products, including alcohol-based skin antiseptics and hand soap. The delayed peak in the NoV incidence in the 2009-2010 season had the lowest number of recorded cases of the five seasons studied (2006-2007 to 2010-2011). GII.4 was the most commonly occurring genotype. The monthly relative risk of NoV and monthly output of both alcohol-based skin antiseptics and hand soap were significantly and negatively correlated. Our findings suggest an association between hand hygiene using these products and prevention of NoV transmission.

  15. Extracting transmission networks from phylogeographic data for epidemic and endemic diseases: Ebola virus in Sierra Leone, 2009 H1N1 pandemic influenza and polio in Nigeria.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Famulare, Michael; Hu, Hao

    2015-03-01

    Phylogeography improves our understanding of spatial epidemiology. However, application to practical problems requires choices among computational tools to balance statistical rigor, computational complexity, sensitivity to sampling strategy and interpretability. We introduce a fast, heuristic algorithm to reconstruct partially-observed transmission networks (POTN) that combines features of phylogenetic and transmission tree approaches. We compare the transmission network generated by POTN with existing algorithms (BEAST and SeqTrack), and discuss the benefits and challenges of phylogeographic analysis on examples of epidemic and endemic diseases: Ebola virus, H1N1 pandemic influenza and polio. For the 2014 Sierra Leone Ebola virus outbreak and the 2009 H1N1 outbreak, all three methods provide similarly plausible transmission histories but differ in detail. For polio in northern Nigeria, we discuss performance trade-offs between the POTN and discrete phylogeography in BEAST and conclude that spatial history reconstruction is limited by under-sampling. POTN is complementary to available tools on densely-sampled data, fails gracefully on under-sampled data and is scalable to accommodate larger datasets. We provide further evidence for the utility of phylogeography for understanding transmission networks of rapidly evolving epidemics. We propose simple heuristic criteria to identify how sampling rates and disease dynamics interact to determine fundamental limitations of phylogeographic inference. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene.

  16. Pros and cons of estimating the reproduction number from early epidemic growth rate of influenza A (H1N1 2009

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    Chowell Gerardo

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In many parts of the world, the exponential growth rate of infections during the initial epidemic phase has been used to make statistical inferences on the reproduction number, R, a summary measure of the transmission potential for the novel influenza A (H1N1 2009. The growth rate at the initial stage of the epidemic in Japan led to estimates for R in the range 2.0 to 2.6, capturing the intensity of the initial outbreak among school-age children in May 2009. Methods An updated estimate of R that takes into account the epidemic data from 29 May to 14 July is provided. An age-structured renewal process is employed to capture the age-dependent transmission dynamics, jointly estimating the reproduction number, the age-dependent susceptibility and the relative contribution of imported cases to secondary transmission. Pitfalls in estimating epidemic growth rates are identified and used for scrutinizing and re-assessing the results of our earlier estimate of R. Results Maximum likelihood estimates of R using the data from 29 May to 14 July ranged from 1.21 to 1.35. The next-generation matrix, based on our age-structured model, predicts that only 17.5% of the population will experience infection by the end of the first pandemic wave. Our earlier estimate of R did not fully capture the population-wide epidemic in quantifying the next-generation matrix from the estimated growth rate during the initial stage of the pandemic in Japan. Conclusions In order to quantify R from the growth rate of cases, it is essential that the selected model captures the underlying transmission dynamics embedded in the data. Exploring additional epidemiological information will be useful for assessing the temporal dynamics. Although the simple concept of R is more easily grasped by the general public than that of the next-generation matrix, the matrix incorporating detailed information (e.g., age-specificity is essential for reducing the levels of

  17. Clinical and socioeconomic impact of seasonal and pandemic influenza in adults and the elderly.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gasparini, Roberto; Amicizia, Daniela; Lai, Piero Luigi; Panatto, Donatella

    2012-01-01

    Influenza epidemics and pandemics carry a heavy socioeconomic burden. Hospitalization and treatment are more often necessary in high-risk patients, such as the elderly. However, the impact of influenza is not negligible even in adults, mainly because of lost productivity. The World Health Organization estimates that seasonal influenza causes 250,000-500,000 deaths worldwide each year; however, mortality may be very high in pandemic periods. Many estimates of the costs of seasonal influenza have been made in various socioeconomic contexts. For instance, among the adult population in Italy, a cost of €940.39 per case has been estimated. In the US, the average annual influenza burden in 18-49-y-old adults without underlying medical conditions is judged to include approximately 32,000 hospitalizations and 680 deaths. Estimating the influenza burden is a useful aid to determining the best influenza vaccination strategy and preventive and clinical treatments.

  18. Experience of work St. George the Martyr Hospital in the influenza epidemic H1N1 in 2009

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    Yu. M. Gomon

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The article presents the experience of conversion multi-disciplinary somatic hospitals in the infectious hospital. In November-December 2009, the hospital carried out 602 care to patients with acute respiratory infections and influenza, 61 had confirmed influenza caused by virus H1N1, of which 43 patients were hospitalized in serious and critical condition and needed resuscitative benefits. Arising from the conversion to ensure that the complexity of medical-diagnostic process and the observance of sanitary-epidemiological rules for patients suffering from the flu, demanded the mobilization of all forces and resources of the hospital, additional equipment, purchases of non-core drugs. We obtained the experience can be a great help in such situations with re-profiling of general somatic hospitals in infection.

  19. Recommendations for intensive care unit and hospital preparations for an influenza epidemic or mass disaster: summary report of the European Society of Intensive Care Medicine's Task Force for intensive care unit triage during an influenza epidemic or mass disaster.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sprung, Charles L; Zimmerman, Janice L; Christian, Michael D; Joynt, Gavin M; Hick, John L; Taylor, Bruce; Richards, Guy A; Sandrock, Christian; Cohen, Robert; Adini, Bruria

    2010-03-01

    To provide recommendations and standard operating procedures for intensive care units and hospital preparedness for an influenza pandemic. Based on a literature review and expert opinion, a Delphi process was used to define the essential topics. Key recommendations include: Hospitals should increase their ICU beds to the maximal extent by expanding ICU capacity and expanding ICUs into other areas. Hospitals should have appropriate beds and monitors for these expansion areas. Establish a management system with control groups at facility, local, regional and/or national levels to exercise authority over resources. Establish a system of communication, coordination and collaboration between the ICU and key interface departments. A plan to access, coordinate and increase labor resources is required with a central inventory of all clinical and non-clinical staff. Delegate duties not within the usual scope of workers' practice. Ensure that adequate essential medical equipment, pharmaceuticals and supplies are available. Protect patients and staff with infection control practices and supporting occupational health policies. Maintain staff confidence with reassurance plans for legal protection and assistance. Have objective, ethical, transparent triage criteria that are applied equitably and publically disclosed. ICU triage of patients should be based on the likelihood for patients to benefit most or a 'first come, first served' basis. Develop protocols for safe performance of high-risk procedures. Train and educate staff. Mortality, although inevitable during a severe influenza outbreak or disaster, can be reduced by adequate preparation.

  20. Similarities in mortality patterns from influenza in the first half of the 20th century and the rise and fall of ischemic heart disease in the United States: a new hypothesis concerning the coronary heart disease epidemic

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    Azambuja Maria Inês Reinert

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available The classic risk factors for developing coronary heart disease (CHD explain less than 50% of the decrease in mortality observed since 1950. The transition currently under way, from the degenerative to the infectious-inflammatory paradigm, requires a new causal interpretation of temporal trends. The following is an ecological study based on data from the United States showing that in men and women an association between the age distribution of mortality due to influenza and pneumonia (I&P associated with the influenza pandemic in 1918-1919 in the 10-49-year age bracket and the distribution of CHD mortality from 1920 to 1985 in survivors from the corresponding birth cohorts. It further shows a significant negative correlation (r = -0.68, p = 0.042 between excess mortality from I&P accumulated in epidemics from 1931 to 1940 (used as indicator for persistent circulation of H1N1 virus combined with vulnerability to infection and the order of the beginning in the decline in CHD mortality in nine geographic divisions in the United States. In light of current biological knowledge, the data suggest that the 1918 influenza pandemic and the subsequent epidemics up to 1957 might have played a determinant role in the epidemic of CHD mortality registered in the 20th century.

  1. On epidemic modeling in real time: An application to the 2009 Novel A (H1N1 influenza outbreak in Canada

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    Fisman David N

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Management of emerging infectious diseases such as the 2009 influenza pandemic A (H1N1 poses great challenges for real-time mathematical modeling of disease transmission due to limited information on disease natural history and epidemiology, stochastic variation in the course of epidemics, and changing case definitions and surveillance practices. Findings The Richards model and its variants are used to fit the cumulative epidemic curve for laboratory-confirmed pandemic H1N1 (pH1N1 infections in Canada, made available by the Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC. The model is used to obtain estimates for turning points in the initial outbreak, the basic reproductive number (R0, and for expected final outbreak size in the absence of interventions. Confirmed case data were used to construct a best-fit 2-phase model with three turning points. R0 was estimated to be 1.30 (95% CI 1.12-1.47 for the first phase (April 1 to May 4 and 1.35 (95% CI 1.16-1.54 for the second phase (May 4 to June 19. Hospitalization data were also used to fit a 1-phase model with R0 = 1.35 (1.20-1.49 and a single turning point of June 11. Conclusions Application of the Richards model to Canadian pH1N1 data shows that detection of turning points is affected by the quality of data available at the time of data usage. Using a Richards model, robust estimates of R0 were obtained approximately one month after the initial outbreak in the case of 2009 A (H1N1 in Canada.

  2. Using combinatorial bioinformatics methods to analyze annual perspective changes of influenza viruses and to accelerate development of effective vaccines

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    Yu-Jen Hu

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available The standard World Health Organization procedure for vaccine development has provided a guideline for influenza viruses, but no systematic operational model. We recently designed a systemic analysis method to evaluate annual perspective sequence changes of influenza virus strains. We applied dnaml of PHYLIP 3.69, developed by Joseph Felsenstein of Washington University, and ClustalX2, developed by Larkin et al, for calculating, comparing, and localizing the most plausible vaccine epitopes. This study identified the changes in biological sequences and associated alignment alterations, which would ultimately affect epitope structures, as well as the plausible hidden features to search for the most conserved and effective epitopes for vaccine development. Addition our newly designed systemic analysis method to supplement the WHO guidelines could accelerate the development of urgently needed vaccines that might concurrently combat several strains of viruses within a shorter period.

  3. The role of genomics in tracking the evolution of influenza A virus.

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    Alice Carolyn McHardy

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available Influenza A virus causes annual epidemics and occasional pandemics of short-term respiratory infections associated with considerable morbidity and mortality. The pandemics occur when new human-transmissible viruses that have the major surface protein of influenza A viruses from other host species are introduced into the human population. Between such rare events, the evolution of influenza is shaped by antigenic drift: the accumulation of mutations that result in changes in exposed regions of the viral surface proteins. Antigenic drift makes the virus less susceptible to immediate neutralization by the immune system in individuals who have had a previous influenza infection or vaccination. A biannual reevaluation of the vaccine composition is essential to maintain its effectiveness due to this immune escape. The study of influenza genomes is key to this endeavor, increasing our understanding of antigenic drift and enhancing the accuracy of vaccine strain selection. Recent large-scale genome sequencing and antigenic typing has considerably improved our understanding of influenza evolution: epidemics around the globe are seeded from a reservoir in East-Southeast Asia with year-round prevalence of influenza viruses; antigenically similar strains predominate in epidemics worldwide for several years before being replaced by a new antigenic cluster of strains. Future in-depth studies of the influenza reservoir, along with large-scale data mining of genomic resources and the integration of epidemiological, genomic, and antigenic data, should enhance our understanding of antigenic drift and improve the detection and control of antigenically novel emerging strains.

  4. Comparative epidemiology of influenza A and B viral infection in a subtropical region: a 7-year surveillance in Okinawa, Japan

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    Yoshikazu Iha

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The epidemic patterns of influenza B infection and their association with climate conditions are not well understood. Influenza surveillance in Okinawa is important for clarifying transmission patterns in both temperate and tropical regions. Using surveillance data, collected over 7 years in the subtropical region of Japan, this study aims to characterize the epidemic patterns of influenza B infection and its association with ambient temperature and relative humidity, in a parallel comparison with influenza A. Methods From January 2007 until March 2014, two individual influenza surveillance datasets were collected from external sources. The first dataset, included weekly rapid antigen test (RAT results from four representative general hospitals, located in the capital city of Okinawa. A nation-wide surveillance of influenza, diagnosed by RAT results and/or influenza-like illness symptoms, included the age distribution of affected patients and was used as the second dataset. To analyze the association between infection and local climate conditions, ambient temperature and relative humidity during the study period were retrieved from the Japanese Meteorological Agency website. Results Although influenza A maintained high number of infections from December through March, epidemics of influenza B infection were observed annually from March through July. The only observed exception was 2010, when the pandemic strain of 2009 dominated. During influenza B outbreaks, influenza patients aged 5 to 9 years old and 10 to 14 years old more frequently visited sentinel sites. Although both ambient temperature and relative humidity are inversely associated with influenza A infection, influenza B infection was found to be directly associated with high relative humidity. Conclusion Further studies are needed to elucidate the complex epidemiology of influenza B and its relationship with influenza A. In the subtropical setting of Okinawa

  5. Risk of an equine influenza virus reservoir establishing in wild horses in New South Wales during the Australian epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gilchrist, P; Sergeant, E S G

    2011-07-01

    Australia has the world's largest population of wild equids and equine influenza (EI) was confirmed on several properties in New South Wales (NSW) close to uncontrolled areas of land during the 2007 outbreak. Likelihood and risk management assessments were carried out to determine the risk of EI infection of the wild horse populations. The likelihood of spread to the wild horse population was determined to be extremely low, but the likelihood of spread from an established wild horse reservoir back to domestic horses was considered high. The most effective mechanism of control was determined to be prevention of the spread of EI into the wild horse population through a vaccination buffer zone between EI infection foci and known wild horse populations. © 2011 The Authors. Australian Veterinary Journal © 2011 Australian Veterinary Association.

  6. No serological evidence that harbour porpoises are additional hosts of influenza B viruses.

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    Rogier Bodewes

    Full Text Available Influenza A and B viruses circulate among humans causing epidemics almost annually. While various hosts for influenza A viruses exist, influenza B viruses have been detected only in humans and seals. However, recurrent infections of seals in Dutch coastal waters with influenza B viruses that are antigenetically distinct from influenza B viruses circulating among humans suggest that influenza B viruses have been introduced into this seal population by another, non-human, host. Harbour porpoises (Phocoena phocoena are sympatric with seals in these waters and are also occasionally in close contact with humans after stranding and subsequent rehabilitation. In addition, virus attachment studies demonstrated that influenza B viruses can bind to cells of the respiratory tract of these animals. Therefore, we hypothesized that harbour porpoises might be a reservoir of influenza B viruses. In the present study, an unique set of serum samples from 79 harbour porpoises, stranded alive on the Dutch coast between 2003 and 2013, was tested for the presence of antibodies against influenza B viruses by use of the hemagglutination inhibition test and for antibodies against influenza A viruses by use of a competitive influenza A nucleoprotein ELISA. No antibodies were detected against either virus, suggesting that influenza A and B virus infections of harbour porpoises in Dutch coastal waters are not common, which was supported by statistical analysis of the dataset.

  7. No serological evidence that harbour porpoises are additional hosts of influenza B viruses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bodewes, Rogier; van de Bildt, Marco W G; van Elk, Cornelis E; Bunskoek, Paulien E; van de Vijver, David A M C; Smits, Saskia L; Osterhaus, Albert D M E; Kuiken, Thijs

    2014-01-01

    Influenza A and B viruses circulate among humans causing epidemics almost annually. While various hosts for influenza A viruses exist, influenza B viruses have been detected only in humans and seals. However, recurrent infections of seals in Dutch coastal waters with influenza B viruses that are antigenetically distinct from influenza B viruses circulating among humans suggest that influenza B viruses have been introduced into this seal population by another, non-human, host. Harbour porpoises (Phocoena phocoena) are sympatric with seals in these waters and are also occasionally in close contact with humans after stranding and subsequent rehabilitation. In addition, virus attachment studies demonstrated that influenza B viruses can bind to cells of the respiratory tract of these animals. Therefore, we hypothesized that harbour porpoises might be a reservoir of influenza B viruses. In the present study, an unique set of serum samples from 79 harbour porpoises, stranded alive on the Dutch coast between 2003 and 2013, was tested for the presence of antibodies against influenza B viruses by use of the hemagglutination inhibition test and for antibodies against influenza A viruses by use of a competitive influenza A nucleoprotein ELISA. No antibodies were detected against either virus, suggesting that influenza A and B virus infections of harbour porpoises in Dutch coastal waters are not common, which was supported by statistical analysis of the dataset.

  8. Emerging influenza viruses and the prospect of a universal influenza virus vaccine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krammer, Florian

    2015-05-01

    Influenza viruses cause annual seasonal epidemics and pandemics at irregular intervals. Several cases of human infections with avian and swine influenza viruses have been detected recently, warranting enhanced surveillance and the development of more effective countermeasures to address the pandemic potential of these viruses. The most effective countermeasure against influenza virus infection is the use of prophylactic vaccines. However, vaccines that are currently in use for seasonal influenza viruses have to be re-formulated and re-administered in a cumbersome process every year due to the antigenic drift of the virus. Furthermore, current seasonal vaccines are ineffective against novel pandemic strains. This paper reviews zoonotic influenza viruses with pandemic potential and technological advances towards better vaccines that induce broad and long lasting protection from influenza virus infection. Recent efforts have focused on the development of broadly protective/universal influenza virus vaccines that can provide immunity against drifted seasonal influenza virus strains but also against potential pandemic viruses. Copyright © 2015 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  9. Vaccine-mismatched influenza B/Yamagata lineage viruses in Cuba, 2012-2013 season.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arencibia, Amely; Piñón, Alexander; Acosta, Belsy; Fernandez, Leandro; Muné, Mayra; Valdés, Odalys; Savón, Clara; Oropesa, Suset; Gonzalez, Grehete; Roque, Rosmery; Gonzalez, Guelsys; Hernández, Bárbara; Alfonso, Javier Martínez

    2018-03-01

    Annual trivalent influenza vaccines contain one of influenza B lineages; influenza B/Victoria-lineage or influenza B/Yamagata viruses. Theoretically, these vaccines should protect against viruses expected to circulate in the next influenza season. The National Influenza Centers, based on surveillance data from National Reference Laboratories, selects the strains composing each annual trivalent or tetravalent vaccine. Nevertheless, in some epidemics, vaccine strains do not match genetically with circulating strains. The aim of the present study is to compare the HA1-domain of 42 influenza B viruses circulating in Cuba during the 2012-2013 season with the vaccine strain B/Wisconsin/01/2010-like virus from the B/Yamagata lineage, included in the 2012-2013 Northern-Hemisphere Influenza vaccine. The efficacy of the influenza vaccine was also estimated. The analysis of the present study indicates that the B/Victoria and B/Yamagata lineages co-circulated in Cuba in the 2012-2013 season. In 2012-2013 season, according to the sequences analysis, trivalent vaccine did not match with the circulating strains. The present study also detected amino acid substitutions which could have altered the antigenic properties of HA gene. The results presented here suggest the need to consider a possible introduction of tetravalent influenza vaccine in Cuba, as has been recommended by the WHO to ensure higher levels of protection. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  10. Novel viral vectored vaccines for the prevention of influenza.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lambe, Teresa

    2012-10-24

    Influenza represents a substantial global healthcare burden, with annual epidemics resulting in 3-5 million cases of severe illness with a significant associated mortality. In addition, the risk of a virulent and lethal influenza pandemic has generated widespread and warranted concern. Currently licensed influenza vaccines are limited in their ability to induce efficacious and long-lasting herd immunity. In addition, and as evidenced by the H1N1 pandemic in 2009, there can be a significant delay between the emergence of a pandemic influenza and an effective, antibody-inducing vaccine. There is, therefore, a continued need for new, efficacious vaccines conferring cross-clade protection-obviating the need for biannual reformulation of seasonal influenza vaccines. Development of such a vaccine would yield enormous health benefits to society and also greatly reduce the associated global healthcare burden. There are a number of alternative influenza vaccine technologies being assessed both preclinically and clinically. In this review we discuss viral vectored vaccines, either recombinant live-attenuated or replication-deficient viruses, which are current lead candidates for inducing efficacious and long-lasting immunity toward influenza viruses. These alternate influenza vaccines offer real promise to deliver viable alternatives to currently deployed vaccines and more importantly may confer long-lasting and universal protection against influenza viral infection.

  11. Influenza (Flu)

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... develop influenza. Weakened immune system. Cancer treatments, anti-rejection drugs, corticosteroids and HIV/AIDS can weaken your ... for Disease Control and Prevention recommends annual flu vaccination for everyone over the age of 6 months. ...

  12. Influenza Vaccination in Community Dwelling Elderly Persons

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    A.C.G. Voordouw (Bettie)

    2005-01-01

    textabstractAn influenza epidemic was first described in 1173, although there are reports of influenza as early as 412 BC. Recurrent epidemics and incidental pandemics caused by influenza virus are documented since the last 400 years. These were based upon clinical observation and epidemiology.

  13. Universal immunity to influenza must outwit immune evasion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sergio Manuel Quinones-Parra

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Although an influenza vaccine has been available for 70 years, influenza virus still causes seasonal epidemics and worldwide pandemics. Currently available vaccines elicit strain-specific antibody responses to the surface haemagglutinin (HA and neuraminidase (NA proteins, but these can be ineffective against serologically-distinct viral variants and novel subtypes. Thus, there is a need for cross-protective or universal influenza vaccines to overcome the necessity for annual immunisation against seasonal influenza and to provide immunity to reduce the severity of infection with pandemic or outbreak viruses. It is well established that natural influenza infection can provide cross-reactive immunity that can reduce the impact of infection with distinct influenza type A strains and subtypes, including H1N1, H3N2, H2N2, H5N1 and H7N9. The key to generating universal influenza immunity via vaccination is to target functionally-conserved regions of the virus, which include epitopes on the internal proteins for cross-reactive T cell immunity or on the HA stem for broadly reactive antibody responses. In the wake of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic, broadly neutralizing antibodies have been characterized and isolated from convalescent and vaccinated individuals, inspiring development of new vaccination techniques to elicit such responses. Induction of influenza-specific T cell responses through vaccination has also been examined in clinical trials. Strong evidence is available from human and animal models of influenza to show that established influenza-specific T cell memory can reduce viral shedding and symptom severity. However, the published evidence also shows that CD8+ T cells can efficiently select immune escape mutants early after influenza virus infection. Here, we discuss universal immunity to influenza viruses mediated by both cross-reactive T cells and antibodies, the mechanisms of immune evasion in influenza, and how to counteract commonly occurring

  14. Universal immunity to influenza must outwit immune evasion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quiñones-Parra, Sergio; Loh, Liyen; Brown, Lorena E; Kedzierska, Katherine; Valkenburg, Sophie A

    2014-01-01

    Although an influenza vaccine has been available for 70 years, influenza virus still causes seasonal epidemics and worldwide pandemics. Currently available vaccines elicit strain-specific antibody (Ab) responses to the surface haemagglutinin (HA) and neuraminidase (NA) proteins, but these can be ineffective against serologically-distinct viral variants and novel subtypes. Thus, there is a great need for cross-protective or "universal" influenza vaccines to overcome the necessity for annual immunization against seasonal influenza and to provide immunity to reduce the severity of infection with pandemic or outbreak viruses. It is well established that natural influenza infection can provide cross-reactive immunity that can reduce the impact of infection with distinct influenza type A strains and subtypes, including H1N1, H3N2, H2N2, H5N1, and H7N9. The key to generating universal influenza immunity through vaccination is to target functionally-conserved regions of the virus, which include epitopes on the internal proteins for cross-reactive T cell immunity or on the HA stem for broadly reactive Ab responses. In the wake of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic, broadly neutralizing antibodies (bnAbs) have been characterized and isolated from convalescent and vaccinated individuals, inspiring development of new vaccination techniques to elicit such responses. Induction of influenza-specific T cell responses through vaccination has also been recently examined in clinical trials. Strong evidence is available from human and animal models of influenza to show that established influenza-specific T cell memory can reduce viral shedding and symptom severity. However, the published evidence also shows that CD8(+) T cells can efficiently select immune escape mutants early after influenza virus infection. Here, we discuss universal immunity to influenza viruses mediated by both cross-reactive T cells and Abs, the mechanisms of immune evasion in influenza, and propose how to counteract

  15. Avian Influenza.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeitlin, Gary Adam; Maslow, Melanie Jane

    2005-05-01

    The current epidemic of H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza in Southeast Asia raises serious concerns that genetic reassortment will result in the next influenza pandemic. There have been 164 confirmed cases of human infection with avian influenza since 1996. In 2004, there were 45 cases of human H5N1 in Vietnam and Thailand, with a mortality rate more than 70%. In addition to the potential public health hazard, the current zoonotic epidemic has caused severe economic losses. Efforts must be concentrated on early detection of bird outbreaks with aggressive culling, quarantining, and disinfection. To prepare for and prevent an increase in human cases, it is essential to improve detection methods and stockpile effective antivirals. Novel therapeutic modalities, including short-interfering RNAs and new vaccine strategies that use plasmid-based genetic systems, offer promise should a pandemic occur.

  16. Using routine surveillance data to estimate the epidemic potential of emerging zoonoses: application to the emergence of US swine origin influenza A H3N2v virus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cauchemez, Simon; Epperson, Scott; Biggerstaff, Matthew; Swerdlow, David; Finelli, Lyn; Ferguson, Neil M

    2013-01-01

    Prior to emergence in human populations, zoonoses such as SARS cause occasional infections in human populations exposed to reservoir species. The risk of widespread epidemics in humans can be assessed by monitoring the reproduction number R (average number of persons infected by a human case). However, until now, estimating R required detailed outbreak investigations of human clusters, for which resources and expertise are not always available. Additionally, existing methods do not correct for important selection and under-ascertainment biases. Here, we present simple estimation methods that overcome many of these limitations. Our approach is based on a parsimonious mathematical model of disease transmission and only requires data collected through routine surveillance and standard case investigations. We apply it to assess the transmissibility of swine-origin influenza A H3N2v-M virus in the US, Nipah virus in Malaysia and Bangladesh, and also present a non-zoonotic example (cholera in the Dominican Republic). Estimation is based on two simple summary statistics, the proportion infected by the natural reservoir among detected cases (G) and among the subset of the first detected cases in each cluster (F). If detection of a case does not affect detection of other cases from the same cluster, we find that R can be estimated by 1-G; otherwise R can be estimated by 1-F when the case detection rate is low. In more general cases, bounds on R can still be derived. We have developed a simple approach with limited data requirements that enables robust assessment of the risks posed by emerging zoonoses. We illustrate this by deriving transmissibility estimates for the H3N2v-M virus, an important step in evaluating the possible pandemic threat posed by this virus. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

  17. Using routine surveillance data to estimate the epidemic potential of emerging zoonoses: application to the emergence of US swine origin influenza A H3N2v virus.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simon Cauchemez

    Full Text Available Prior to emergence in human populations, zoonoses such as SARS cause occasional infections in human populations exposed to reservoir species. The risk of widespread epidemics in humans can be assessed by monitoring the reproduction number R (average number of persons infected by a human case. However, until now, estimating R required detailed outbreak investigations of human clusters, for which resources and expertise are not always available. Additionally, existing methods do not correct for important selection and under-ascertainment biases. Here, we present simple estimation methods that overcome many of these limitations.Our approach is based on a parsimonious mathematical model of disease transmission and only requires data collected through routine surveillance and standard case investigations. We apply it to assess the transmissibility of swine-origin influenza A H3N2v-M virus in the US, Nipah virus in Malaysia and Bangladesh, and also present a non-zoonotic example (cholera in the Dominican Republic. Estimation is based on two simple summary statistics, the proportion infected by the natural reservoir among detected cases (G and among the subset of the first detected cases in each cluster (F. If detection of a case does not affect detection of other cases from the same cluster, we find that R can be estimated by 1-G; otherwise R can be estimated by 1-F when the case detection rate is low. In more general cases, bounds on R can still be derived.We have developed a simple approach with limited data requirements that enables robust assessment of the risks posed by emerging zoonoses. We illustrate this by deriving transmissibility estimates for the H3N2v-M virus, an important step in evaluating the possible pandemic threat posed by this virus. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

  18. INFLUENZA SURVEILLANCE IN RUSSIA BASED ON EPIDEMIOLOGICAL AND LABORATORY DATA FOR THE PERIOD FROM 2005 TO 2012

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anna, Sominina; Burtseva, Elena; Eropkin, Mikhail; Karpova, Ludmila; Zarubaev, Vladimir; Smorodintseva, Elizaveta; Konovalova, Nadezhda; Danilenko, Daria; Prokopetz, Alexandra; Grudinin, Mikhail; Pisareva, Maria; Anfimov, Pavel; Stolyarov, Kirill; Kiselev, Oleg; Shevchenko, Elena; Ivanova, Valeriya; Trushakova, Svetlana; Breslav, Nataliya; Lvov, Dmitriy; Klimov, Alexander; Moen, Ann; Cox, Nancy

    2015-01-01

    Exchange of information on and sharing of influenza viruses through the GISRS network has great significance for understanding influenza virus evolution, recognition of a new pandemic virus emergence and for preparing annual WHO recommendations on influenza vaccine strain composition. Influenza surveillance in Russia is based on collaboration of two NICs with 59 Regional Bases. Most epidemiological and laboratory data are entered through the internet into the electronic database at the Research Institute of Influenza (RII), where they are analyzed and then reported to the Ministry of Public Health of Russia. Simultaneously, data are introduced into WHO’s Flu Net and Euro Flu, both electronic databases. Annual influenza epidemics of moderate intensity were registered during four pre-pandemic seasons. Children aged 0–2 and 3–6 years were the most affected groups of the population. Influenza registered clinically among hospitalized patients with respiratory infections for the whole epidemic period varied between 1.3 and 5.4% and up but to 18.5–23.0% during the peak of the two pandemic waves caused by influenza A(H1N1) pdm 09 virus and to lesser extent (2.9 to 8.5%) during usual seasonal epidemics. Most epidemics were associated with influenza A(H1N1), A(H3N2) and B co-circulation. During the two pandemic waves (in 2009–2010 and 2010–2011) influenza A(H1N1) pdm 09 predominated. It was accompanied by a rapid growth of influenza morbidity with a significant increase of both hospitalization and mortality. The new pandemic virus displaced the previous seasonal A(H1N1) virus completely. As a rule, most of the influenza viruses circulating in Russia were antigenic ally related to the strains recommended by WHO for vaccine composition for the Northern hemisphere with the exception of two seasons when an unexpected replacement of the influenza B Victoria lineage by Yamagata lineage (2007–2008) and the following return of Victoria lineage viruses (2008–2009) was

  19. School-based influenza vaccination: parents' perspectives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lind, Candace; Russell, Margaret L; MacDonald, Judy; Collins, Ramona; Frank, Christine J; Davis, Amy E

    2014-01-01

    School-age children are important drivers of annual influenza epidemics yet influenza vaccination coverage of this population is low despite universal publicly funded influenza vaccination in Alberta, Canada. Immunizing children at school may potentially increase vaccine uptake. As parents are a key stakeholder group for such a program, it is important to consider their concerns. We explored parents' perspectives on the acceptability of adding an annual influenza immunization to the immunization program that is currently delivered in Alberta schools, and obtained suggestions for structuring such a program. Forty-eight parents of children aged 5-18 years participated in 9 focus groups. Participants lived in urban areas of the Alberta Health Services Calgary Zone. Three major themes emerged: Advantages of school-based influenza vaccination (SBIV), Disadvantages of SBIV, and Implications for program design & delivery. Advantages were perceived to occur for different populations: children (e.g. emotional support), families (e.g. convenience), the community (e.g. benefits for school and multicultural communities), the health sector (e.g. reductions in costs due to burden of illness) and to society at large (e.g. indirect conduit of information about health services, building structure for pandemic preparedness, building healthy lifestyles). Disadvantages, however, might also occur for children (e.g. older children less likely to be immunized), families (e.g. communication challenges, perceived loss of parental control over information, choices and decisions) and the education sector (loss of instructional time). Nine second-level themes emerged within the major theme of Implications for program design & delivery: program goals/objectives, consent process, stakeholder consultation, age-appropriate program, education, communication, logistics, immunizing agent, and clinic process. Parents perceived advantages and disadvantages to delivering annual seasonal influenza

  20. Novel vaccines against influenza viruses

    OpenAIRE

    Kang, Sang-Moo; Song, Jae-Min; Compans, Richard W.

    2011-01-01

    Killed and live attenuated influenza virus vaccines are effective in preventing and curbing the spread of influenza epidemics when the strains present in the vaccines are closely matched with the predicted epidemic strains. These vaccines are primarily targeted to induce immunity to the variable major target antigen, hemagglutinin (HA) of influenza virus. However, current vaccines are not effective in preventing the emergence of new pandemic or highly virulent viruses. New approaches are bein...

  1. The dynamics of avian influenza in western Arctic snow geese: implications for annual and migratory infection patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samuel, Michael D.; Hall, Jeffrey S.; Brown, Justin D.; Goldberg, Diana R.; Ip, Hon S.; Baranyuk, Vasily V.

    2015-01-01

    Wild water birds are the natural reservoir for low-pathogenic avian influenza viruses (AIV). However, our ability to investigate the epizootiology of AIV in these migratory populations is challenging, and despite intensive worldwide surveillance, remains poorly understood. We conducted a cross-sectional, retrospective analysis in Pacific Flyway lesser snow geese Chen caerulescens to investigate AIV serology and infection patterns. We collected nearly 3,000 sera samples from snow geese at 2 breeding colonies in Russia and Canada during 1993-1996 and swab samples from > 4,000 birds at wintering and migration areas in the United States during 2006-2011. We found seroprevalence and annual seroconversion varied considerably among years. Seroconversion and infection rates also differed between snow goose breeding colonies and wintering areas, suggesting that AIV exposure in this gregarious waterfowl species is likely occurring during several phases (migration, wintering and potentially breeding areas) of the annual cycle. We estimated AIV antibody persistence was longer (14 months) in female geese compared to males (6 months). This relatively long period of AIV antibody persistence suggests that subtype-specific serology may be an effective tool for detection of exposure to subtypes associated with highly-pathogenic AIV. Our study provides further evidence of high seroprevalence in Arctic goose populations, and estimates of annual AIV seroconversion and antibody persistence for North American waterfowl. We suggest future AIV studies include serology to help elucidate the epizootiological dynamics of AIV in wild bird populations.

  2. Universal influenza vaccines: Shifting to better vaccines.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berlanda Scorza, Francesco; Tsvetnitsky, Vadim; Donnelly, John J

    2016-06-03

    Influenza virus causes acute upper and lower respiratory infections and is the most likely, among known pathogens, to cause a large epidemic in humans. Influenza virus mutates rapidly, enabling it to evade natural and vaccine-induced immunity. Furthermore, influenza viruses can cross from animals to humans, generating novel, potentially pandemic strains. Currently available influenza vaccines induce a strain specific response and may be ineffective against new influenza viruses. The difficulty in predicting circulating strains has frequently resulted in mismatch between the annual vaccine and circulating viruses. Low-resource countries remain mostly unprotected against seasonal influenza and are particularly vulnerable to future pandemics, in part, because investments in vaccine manufacturing and stockpiling are concentrated in high-resource countries. Antibodies that target conserved sites in the hemagglutinin stalk have been isolated from humans and shown to confer protection in animal models, suggesting that broadly protective immunity may be possible. Several innovative influenza vaccine candidates are currently in preclinical or early clinical development. New technologies include adjuvants, synthetic peptides, virus-like particles (VLPs), DNA vectors, messenger RNA, viral vectors, and attenuated or inactivated influenza viruses. Other approaches target the conserved exposed epitope of the surface exposed membrane matrix protein M2e. Well-conserved influenza proteins, such as nucleoprotein and matrix protein, are mainly targeted for developing strong cross-protective T cell responses. With multiple vaccine candidates moving along the testing and development pipeline, the field is steadily moving toward a product that is more potent, durable, and broadly protective than previously licensed vaccines. Copyright © 2016 World Health Organization. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  3. [Shared surveillance: meningococcal disease vs influenza].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moreno-Civantos, A; Díaz-Jiménez, J; Domínguez-Berjón, M F

    2000-01-01

    To analyse the association between the behavior of meningococcal disease and influenza, using for this purpose population statistics for Spain for the period of 1964 to 1997. Ecological study of the incidence of meningococcal disease and influenza in Spain from 1964 to 1997, inclusive. The study used weekly statistical data for these diseases supplied by the Compulsory Disease Reporting System (Enfermedades de Declaración Obligatoria, EDO). The deterministic component of the meningococcal disease and influenza series was studied by means of spectral analysis based on the Fast Fourier Transformation, and the non-deterministic component was studied using the ARIMA model. The Box-Jenkins method was used for pre-bleaching the series, and a cross-correlation was subsequently established between the residuals in order to detect the presence of any significant correlations between the meningococcal disease and influenza series. During the period from 1964 to 1997, the week that showed, on average, the greatest number of cases for the season was week 7 in the case of meningococcal disease and week 6 in the case of influenza. Spectral analysis of the meningococcal disease and influenza series clearly demonstrated the annual periodicity of both series, and periodicity of nearly 11 years for meningococcal disease and slightly over 10 years for influenza. When cross-correlation is established after prebleaching the series, positive correlations are obtained in the results of lags 0, 1, 2, and 3. Introducing influenza as an exogenous variable in the multivariate model of meningococcal disease corroborates these results. There was a statistically significant relationship between the two processes during the same week and with a three-week lapse. By means of a methodology not previously applied to this subject, and by the use of prolonged time-span, country-comprehensive population statistics (which includes several epidemics waves), an association was shown to exist between

  4. Epidemiology of avian influenza A H7N9 virus in human beings across five epidemics in mainland China, 2013-17: an epidemiological study of laboratory-confirmed case series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xiling; Jiang, Hui; Wu, Peng; Uyeki, Timothy M; Feng, Luzhao; Lai, Shengjie; Wang, Lili; Huo, Xiang; Xu, Ke; Chen, Enfu; Wang, Xiaoxiao; He, Jianfeng; Kang, Min; Zhang, Renli; Zhang, Jin; Wu, Jiabing; Hu, Shixiong; Zhang, Hengjiao; Liu, Xiaoqing; Fu, Weijie; Ou, Jianming; Wu, Shenggen; Qin, Ying; Zhang, Zhijie; Shi, Yujing; Zhang, Juanjuan; Artois, Jean; Fang, Vicky J; Zhu, Huachen; Guan, Yi; Gilbert, Marius; Horby, Peter W; Leung, Gabriel M; Gao, George F; Cowling, Benjamin J; Yu, Hongjie

    2017-08-01

    The avian influenza A H7N9 virus has caused infections in human beings in China since 2013. A large epidemic in 2016-17 prompted concerns that the epidemiology of the virus might have changed, increasing the threat of a pandemic. We aimed to describe the epidemiological characteristics, clinical severity, and time-to-event distributions of patients infected with A H7N9 in the 2016-17 epidemic compared with previous epidemics. In this epidemiological study, we obtained information about all laboratory-confirmed human cases of A H7N9 virus infection reported in mainland China as of Feb 23, 2017, from an integrated electronic database managed by the China Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and provincial CDCs. Every identified human case of A H7N9 virus infection was required to be reported to China CDC within 24 h via a national surveillance system for notifiable infectious diseases. We described the epidemiological characteristics across epidemics, and estimated the risk of death, mechanical ventilation, and admission to the intensive care unit for patients admitted to hospital for routine clinical practice rather than for isolation purpose. We estimated the incubation periods, and time delays from illness onset to hospital admission, illness onset to initiation of antiviral treatment, and hospital admission to death or discharge using survival analysis techniques. Between Feb 19, 2013, and Feb 23, 2017, 1220 laboratory-confirmed human infections with A H7N9 virus were reported in mainland China, with 134 cases reported in the spring of 2013, 306 in 2013-14, 219 in 2014-15, 114 in 2015-16, and 447 in 2016-17. The 2016-17 A H7N9 epidemic began earlier, spread to more districts and counties in affected provinces, and had more confirmed cases than previous epidemics. The proportion of cases in middle-aged adults increased steadily from 41% (55 of 134) to 57% (254 of 447) from the first epidemic to the 2016-17 epidemic. Proportions of cases in semi

  5. New vaccines against influenza virus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Young-Tae; Kim, Ki-Hye; Ko, Eun-Ju; Lee, Yu-Na; Kim, Min-Chul; Kwon, Young-Man; Tang, Yinghua; Cho, Min-Kyoung; Lee, Youn-Jeong

    2014-01-01

    Vaccination is one of the most effective and cost-benefit interventions that prevent the mortality and reduce morbidity from infectious pathogens. However, the licensed influenza vaccine induces strain-specific immunity and must be updated annually based on predicted strains that will circulate in the upcoming season. Influenza virus still causes significant health problems worldwide due to the low vaccine efficacy from unexpected outbreaks of next epidemic strains or the emergence of pandemic viruses. Current influenza vaccines are based on immunity to the hemagglutinin antigen that is highly variable among different influenza viruses circulating in humans and animals. Several scientific advances have been endeavored to develop universal vaccines that will induce broad protection. Universal vaccines have been focused on regions of viral proteins that are highly conserved across different virus subtypes. The strategies of universal vaccines include the matrix 2 protein, the hemagglutinin HA2 stalk domain, and T cell-based multivalent antigens. Supplemented and/or adjuvanted vaccination in combination with universal target antigenic vaccines would have much promise. This review summarizes encouraging scientific advances in the field with a focus on novel vaccine designs. PMID:24427759

  6. The US 2009 A(H1N1) influenza epidemic: quantifying the impact of school openings on the reproductive number.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Karen E; Lipsitch, Marc; Shaman, Jeffrey; Goldstein, Edward

    2014-03-01

    There is limited information on differences in the dynamics of influenza transmission during time periods when schools are open compared with periods when they are closed. Data on school openings, influenza surveillance, and absolute humidity were incorporated into a regression model to estimate the increase in the reproductive number for the 2009 A(H1N1) influenza pandemic associated with the opening of school in 10 US states. The estimate for the average increase in the reproductive number for the 2009 A(H1N1) influenza pandemic associated with the beginning of the school year was 19.5% (95% credible interval = 10%-29%). Whether schools are open or closed can have a major impact on community transmission dynamics of influenza.

  7. Recurrent dynamics in an epidemic model due to stimulated bifurcation crossovers

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Juanico, Drandreb Earl [Department of Mathematics, Ateneo de Manila University, Loyola Heights, Quezon City, Philippines 1108 (Philippines); National Institute of Physics, University of the Philippines, Diliman, Quezon City, Philippines 1101 (Philippines)

    2015-05-15

    Epidemics are known to persist in the form of recurrence cycles. Despite intervention efforts through vaccination and targeted social distancing, peaks of activity for infectious diseases like influenza reappear over time. Analysis of a stochastic model is here undertaken to explore a proposed cycle-generating mechanism – the bifurcation crossover. Time series from simulations of the model exhibit oscillations similar to the temporal signature of influenza activity. Power-spectral density indicates a resonant frequency, which corresponds to the annual seasonality of influenza in temperate zones. The study finds that intervention actions influence the extinguishability of epidemic activity. Asymptotic solution to a backward Kolmogorov equation corresponds to a mean extinction time that is a function of both intervention efficacy and population size. Intervention efficacy must be greater than a certain threshold to increase the chances of extinguishing the epidemic. Agreement of the model with several phenomenological features of epidemic cycles lends to it a tractability that may serve as early warning of imminent outbreaks.

  8. Recurrent dynamics in an epidemic model due to stimulated bifurcation crossovers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Juanico, Drandreb Earl

    2015-01-01

    Epidemics are known to persist in the form of recurrence cycles. Despite intervention efforts through vaccination and targeted social distancing, peaks of activity for infectious diseases like influenza reappear over time. Analysis of a stochastic model is here undertaken to explore a proposed cycle-generating mechanism – the bifurcation crossover. Time series from simulations of the model exhibit oscillations similar to the temporal signature of influenza activity. Power-spectral density indicates a resonant frequency, which corresponds to the annual seasonality of influenza in temperate zones. The study finds that intervention actions influence the extinguishability of epidemic activity. Asymptotic solution to a backward Kolmogorov equation corresponds to a mean extinction time that is a function of both intervention efficacy and population size. Intervention efficacy must be greater than a certain threshold to increase the chances of extinguishing the epidemic. Agreement of the model with several phenomenological features of epidemic cycles lends to it a tractability that may serve as early warning of imminent outbreaks

  9. Effectiveness of the influenza A(H1N1)PDM09 vaccine in adults recommended for annual influenza vaccination: A matched case-control study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gefenaite, Giedre; Tacken, Margot; Bos, Jens; Stirbu-Wagner, Irina; Korevaar, Joke C.; Stolk, Ronald P.; Wolters, Bert; Bijl, Marc; Postma, Maarten J.; Wilschut, Jan; Nichol, Kristin L.; Hak, Eelko

    2012-01-01

    Background and objectives Because of variability in published A(H1N1)pdm09 influenza vaccine effectiveness estimates, we aimed to assess the effectiveness of MF59-adjuvanted A(H1N1)pdm09 vaccine in a matched case-control study. Patients/methods This study was conducted during the pandemic influenza

  10. Excess Mortality Associated with Influenza among Tuberculosis Deaths in South Africa, 1999-2009.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sibongile Walaza

    Full Text Available Published data on the interaction between influenza and pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB are limited. We aimed to estimate the influenza-associated mortality among individuals with PTB in South Africa from 1999-2009.We modelled the excess influenza-associated mortality by applying Poisson regression models to monthly PTB and non-tuberculosis respiratory deaths, using laboratory-confirmed influenza as a covariate.PTB deaths increased each winter, coinciding with influenza virus circulation. Among individuals of any age, mean annual influenza-associated PTB mortality rate was 164/100,000 person-years (n = 439. The rate of non-tuberculosis respiratory deaths was 27/100,000 (n = 1125 for HIV-infected and 5/100,000 (n = 2367 for HIV-uninfected individuals of all ages. Among individuals aged <65 years, influenza-associated PTB mortality risk was elevated compared to influenza-associated non-tuberculosis respiratory deaths in HIV-infected (relative risk (RR: 5.2; 95% CI: 4.6-5.9 and HIV-uninfected individuals (RR: 61.0; CI: 41.4-91.0. Among individuals aged ≥65 years, influenza-associated PTB mortality risk was elevated compared to influenza-associated non-tuberculosis respiratory deaths in HIV-uninfected individuals (RR: 13.0; 95% CI: 12.0-14.0.We observed an increased risk of influenza-associated mortality in persons with PTB compared to non-tuberculosis respiratory deaths. If confirmed in other settings, our findings may support recommendations for active inclusion of patients with TB for influenza vaccination and empiric influenza anti-viral treatment of patients with TB during influenza epidemics.

  11. Influenza A virus infection in zebrafish recapitulates mammalian infection and sensitivity to anti-influenza drug treatment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kristin A. Gabor

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Seasonal influenza virus infections cause annual epidemics and sporadic pandemics. These present a global health concern, resulting in substantial morbidity, mortality and economic burdens. Prevention and treatment of influenza illness is difficult due to the high mutation rate of the virus, the emergence of new virus strains and increasing antiviral resistance. Animal models of influenza infection are crucial to our gaining a better understanding of the pathogenesis of and host response to influenza infection, and for screening antiviral compounds. However, the current animal models used for influenza research are not amenable to visualization of host-pathogen interactions or high-throughput drug screening. The zebrafish is widely recognized as a valuable model system for infectious disease research and therapeutic drug testing. Here, we describe a zebrafish model for human influenza A virus (IAV infection and show that zebrafish embryos are susceptible to challenge with both influenza A strains APR8 and X-31 (Aichi. Influenza-infected zebrafish show an increase in viral burden and mortality over time. The expression of innate antiviral genes, the gross pathology and the histopathology in infected zebrafish recapitulate clinical symptoms of influenza infections in humans. This is the first time that zebrafish embryos have been infected with a fluorescent IAV in order to visualize infection in a live vertebrate host, revealing a pattern of vascular endothelial infection. Treatment of infected zebrafish with a known anti-influenza compound, Zanamivir, reduced mortality and the expression of a fluorescent viral gene product, demonstrating the validity of this model to screen for potential antiviral drugs. The zebrafish model system has provided invaluable insights into host-pathogen interactions for a range of infectious diseases. Here, we demonstrate a novel use of this species for IAV research. This model has great potential to advance our

  12. Universal Vaccines and Vaccine Platforms to Protect against Influenza Viruses in Humans and Agriculture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rajão, Daniela S.; Pérez, Daniel R.

    2018-01-01

    Influenza virus infections pose a significant threat to public health due to annual seasonal epidemics and occasional pandemics. Influenza is also associated with significant economic losses in animal production. The most effective way to prevent influenza infections is through vaccination. Current vaccine programs rely heavily on the vaccine's ability to stimulate neutralizing antibody responses to the hemagglutinin (HA) protein. One of the biggest challenges to an effective vaccination program lies on the fact that influenza viruses are ever-changing, leading to antigenic drift that results in escape from earlier immune responses. Efforts toward overcoming these challenges aim at improving the strength and/or breadth of the immune response. Novel vaccine technologies, the so-called universal vaccines, focus on stimulating better cross-protection against many or all influenza strains. However, vaccine platforms or manufacturing technologies being tested to improve vaccine efficacy are heterogeneous between different species and/or either tailored for epidemic or pandemic influenza. Here, we discuss current vaccines to protect humans and animals against influenza, highlighting challenges faced to effective and uniform novel vaccination strategies and approaches. PMID:29467737

  13. Universal Vaccines and Vaccine Platforms to Protect against Influenza Viruses in Humans and Agriculture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rajão, Daniela S; Pérez, Daniel R

    2018-01-01

    Influenza virus infections pose a significant threat to public health due to annual seasonal epidemics and occasional pandemics. Influenza is also associated with significant economic losses in animal production. The most effective way to prevent influenza infections is through vaccination. Current vaccine programs rely heavily on the vaccine's ability to stimulate neutralizing antibody responses to the hemagglutinin (HA) protein. One of the biggest challenges to an effective vaccination program lies on the fact that influenza viruses are ever-changing, leading to antigenic drift that results in escape from earlier immune responses. Efforts toward overcoming these challenges aim at improving the strength and/or breadth of the immune response. Novel vaccine technologies, the so-called universal vaccines, focus on stimulating better cross-protection against many or all influenza strains. However, vaccine platforms or manufacturing technologies being tested to improve vaccine efficacy are heterogeneous between different species and/or either tailored for epidemic or pandemic influenza. Here, we discuss current vaccines to protect humans and animals against influenza, highlighting challenges faced to effective and uniform novel vaccination strategies and approaches.

  14. Universal Vaccines and Vaccine Platforms to Protect against Influenza Viruses in Humans and Agriculture

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniela S. Rajão

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Influenza virus infections pose a significant threat to public health due to annual seasonal epidemics and occasional pandemics. Influenza is also associated with significant economic losses in animal production. The most effective way to prevent influenza infections is through vaccination. Current vaccine programs rely heavily on the vaccine's ability to stimulate neutralizing antibody responses to the hemagglutinin (HA protein. One of the biggest challenges to an effective vaccination program lies on the fact that influenza viruses are ever-changing, leading to antigenic drift that results in escape from earlier immune responses. Efforts toward overcoming these challenges aim at improving the strength and/or breadth of the immune response. Novel vaccine technologies, the so-called universal vaccines, focus on stimulating better cross-protection against many or all influenza strains. However, vaccine platforms or manufacturing technologies being tested to improve vaccine efficacy are heterogeneous between different species and/or either tailored for epidemic or pandemic influenza. Here, we discuss current vaccines to protect humans and animals against influenza, highlighting challenges faced to effective and uniform novel vaccination strategies and approaches.

  15. Heterosybtypic T-cell immunity to influenza in humans: challenges for universal T-cell influenza vaccines

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saranya eSridhar

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Influenza A virus (IAV remains a significant global health issue causing annual epidemics, pandemics and sporadic human infections with highly pathogenic avian or swine influenza viruses. Current inactivated and live vaccines are the mainstay of the public health response to influenza although vaccine efficacy is lower against antigenically distinct viral strains. The first pandemic of the 21st century underlined the urgent need to develop new vaccines capable of protection against a broad range of influenza strains. Such universal influenza vaccines are based on the idea of heterosubtypic immunity wherein immune responses to epitopes conserved across IAV strains can confer protection against subsequent infection and disease. T-cells recognising conserved antigens are a key contributor to reducing viral load and limiting disease severity during heterosubtypic infection in animal models. Recent studies undertaken during the 2009 H1N1 pandemic provided key insights into the role of cross-reactive T-cells in mediating heterosubtypic protection in humans. This review focuses on human influenza to discuss the epidemiological observations that underpin cross-protective immunity, the role of T-cells as key players in mediating heterosubtypic immunity including recent data from natural history cohort studies and the ongoing clinical development of T-cell inducing universal influenza vaccines. The challenges and knowledge gaps for developing vaccines to generate long-lived protective T-cell responses is discussed.

  16. Adenoviral vectors as novel vaccines for influenza.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coughlan, Lynda; Mullarkey, Caitlin; Gilbert, Sarah

    2015-03-01

    Influenza is a viral respiratory disease causing seasonal epidemics, with significant annual illness and mortality. Emerging viruses can pose a major pandemic threat if they acquire the capacity for sustained human-to-human transmission. Vaccination reduces influenza-associated mortality and is critical in minimising the burden on the healthcare system. However, current vaccines are not always effective in at-risk populations and fail to induce long-lasting protective immunity against a range of viruses. The development of 'universal' influenza vaccines, which induce heterosubtypic immunity capable of reducing disease severity, limiting viral shedding or protecting against influenza subtypes with pandemic potential, has gained interest in the research community. To date, approaches have focused on inducing immune responses to conserved epitopes within the stem of haemagglutinin, targeting the ectodomain of influenza M2e or by stimulating cellular immunity to conserved internal antigens, nucleoprotein or matrix protein 1. Adenoviral vectors are potent inducers of T-cell and antibody responses and have demonstrated safety in clinical applications, making them an excellent choice of vector for delivery of vaccine antigens. In order to circumvent pre-existing immunity in humans, serotypes from non-human primates have recently been investigated. We will discuss the pre-clinical development of these novel vectors and their advancement to clinical trials. © 2015 Royal Pharmaceutical Society.

  17. Seasonal synchronization of influenza in the United States older adult population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wenger, Julia B; Naumova, Elena N

    2010-04-15

    In temperate regions, influenza epidemics occur annually with the highest activity occurring during the winter months. While seasonal dynamics of the influenza virus, such as time of onset and circulating strains, are well documented by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Influenza Surveillance System, an accurate prediction of timing, magnitude, and composition of circulating strains of seasonal influenza remains elusive. To facilitate public health preparedness for seasonal influenza and to obtain better insights into the spatiotemporal behavior of emerging strains, it is important to develop measurable characteristics of seasonal oscillation and to quantify the relationships between those parameters on a spatial scale. The objectives of our research were to examine the seasonality of influenza on a national and state level as well as the relationship between peak timing and intensity of influenza in the United States older adult population. A total of 248,889 hospitalization records were extracted from the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services for the influenza seasons 1991-2004. Harmonic regression models were used to quantify the peak timing and absolute intensity for each of the 48 contiguous states and Washington, DC. We found that individual influenza seasons showed spatial synchrony with consistent late or early timing occurring across all 48 states during each influenza season in comparison to the overall average. On a national level, seasons that had an earlier peak also had higher rates of influenza (r(s) = -0.5). We demonstrated a spatial trend in peak timing of influenza; western states such as Nevada, Utah, and California peaked earlier and New England States such as Rhode Island, Maine, and New Hampshire peaked later. Our findings suggest that a systematic description of influenza seasonal patterns is a valuable tool for disease surveillance and can facilitate strategies for prevention of severe disease in the vulnerable, older adult

  18. Seasonal influenza split vaccines confer partial cross-protection against heterologous influenza virus in ferrets when combined with the CAF01 adjuvant

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Dennis; Christensen, Jan P.; Korsholm, Karen S.

    2018-01-01

    help to B cells and CD8(+) T cells. However, the seasonal influenza vaccine is poor at inducing CD4(+) T-cell responses and needs to be combined with an adjuvant facilitating this response. In this study, we applied the ferret model to investigate the cross-protective efficacy of a heterologous......Influenza epidemics occur annually, and estimated 5-10% of the adult population and 20-30% of children will become ill from influenza infection. Seasonal vaccines primarily work through the induction of neutralizing antibodies against the principal surface antigen hemagglutinin (HA). This important...... role of HA-specific antibodies explains why previous pandemics have emerged when new HAs have appeared in circulating human viruses. It has long been recognized that influenza virus-specific CD4(+) T cells are important in protection from infection through direct effector mechanisms or by providing...

  19. Waves of El Nino-southern Oscillation and Influenza Pandemics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olusegun Steven Ayodele Oluwole

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Influenza pandemics have occurred at irregular intervals for over 500 years, unlike seasonal influenza epidemics which occur annually. Although the risk factors are known, the basis for the timing of influenza pandemic waves are unknown. Coherence of peaks of El Niño and influenza pandemic in 2009–2010, however, suggests that both waves are coupled. This study was done to determine the relation of influenza pandemics to the peaks and waveforms of El Niño southern oscillation (ENSO. ENSO cycles from 1871–2015 which had El Niño phases were windowed from Multivariate El Niño Index. Influenza pandemic peaks were mapped to ENSO monthly time series. ENSO waveforms were compared graphically, and fitted to nonstationary cosinor models. Second order polynomial regression model was fitted to the peak and duration of El Niño. Agglomerative hierarchical cluster of ENSO waveforms was performed. All influenza pandemic peaks mapped to El Niño peaks, with lags of 0–5 months. ENSO waveforms during influenza pandemics share parameters of oscillation. Nonstationary cosinor models showed that ENSO cycles are complex waves. There was second order polynomial relationship between peak and duration of El Niños, p < 0.0001. ENSO waveforms clustered into four distinct groups. ENSO waveforms during influenza pandemics of 1889–1900, 1957–1958, and 1968–1969 linked closely. ENSO indices were significantly high from 7–16 months after onset of cycles, p < 0.0001. Surveillance for El Niño events to forecast periods of maximal transmission and survival of influenza A viruses is, therefore, crucial for public health control strategies.

  20. Efectos del Framing y representaciones sociales de epidemias sanitarias: El Caso de la Gripe A (Framing effects and social representations of health epidemics: The case of influenza A )

    OpenAIRE

    Nahia Idoyaga; José Francisco Valencia; Lorena Gil de Montes; Garbiñe Ortiz

    2012-01-01

    This study analyzed how the mass media covered the influenza A (H1N1) pandemic and its influence on the social representation of the disease. Framing theory and a model of collective symbolic coping were both used to explain the influence of the mass media on social representation. The study was based on analyzing information on the influenza A pandemic provided by national newspapers in Mexico and Spain between 2009 and 2010. The results show that that the development of the crisis affected ...

  1. Performance of clinical signs in poultry for the detection of outbreaks during the avian influenza A (H7N7) epidemic in the Netherlands in 2003

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Elbers, A.R.W.; Koch, G.; Bouma, A.

    2005-01-01

    The aim of this study was to make an inventory of the clinical signs of high-pathogenicity avian influenza (HPAI), to facilitate the development of an operational syndrome-reporting system (SRS) in The Netherlands as an early warning system for HPAI outbreaks. A total of 537 poultry flocks (240

  2. A Narrative Review of Influenza: A Seasonal and Pandemic Disease

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohsen Moghadami

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Influenza is an acute respiratory disease caused by the influenza A or B virus. It often occurs in outbreaks and epidemics worldwide, mainly during the winter season. Significant numbers of influenza virus particles are present in the respiratory secretions of infected persons, so infection can be transmitted by sneezing and coughing via large particle droplets. The mean duration of influenza virus shedding in immunocompetent adult patients is around 5 days but may continue for up to 10 days or more—particularly in children, elderly adults, patients with chronic illnesses, and immunocompromised hosts. Influenza typically begins with the abrupt onset of high-grade fever, myalgia, headache, and malaise. These manifestations are accompanied by symptoms of respiratory tract illnesses such as nonproductive cough, sore throat, and nasal discharge. After a typical course, influenza can affect other organs such as the lungs, brain, and heart more than it can affect the respiratory tract and cause hospitalization. The best way to prevent influenza is to administer annual vaccinations. Among severely ill patients, an early commencement of antiviral treatment (<2 d from illness onset is associated with reduced morbidity and mortality, with greater benefits allied to an earlier initiation of treatment. Given the significance of the disease burden, we reviewed the latest findings in the diagnosis and management of influenza.

  3. Elevated Annual Runoff Ratios in Pacific Northwest Catchments Impacted by Epidemic Foliage Disease of Douglas-fir

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bladon, K. D.; Bywater-Reyes, S.; LeBoldus, J. M.; Segura, C.; Ritokova, G.; Shaw, D. C.

    2017-12-01

    Catchments in the Western United States are undergoing unprecedented levels of tree die-off and/or reduced vigor due to increased severity of wildfire, drought, insect outbreaks, and disease. In the U.S. Pacific Northwest, Swiss needle cast (SNC) is the most damaging foliar disease of Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii), physically obstructing stomata and preventing CO2 uptake and transpiration. A recent analysis in coastal Oregon indicated a substantial increase in area affected by the disease, from 530.5 km2 in 1996 to 2,387.1 km2 in 2015. Deforestation or reduced tree vigor can have profound impacts on catchment hydrology, in theory, producing increased streamflow due to reduced interception and transpiration. However, these increases have not always been detectable as impacts also depend on factors such as climate and vegetation composition. Moreover, press disturbances, such as insect outbreaks or disease, often do not result in complete removal of understorey or canopy vegetation. We analyzed trends in annual runoff ratios (quotient of discharge divided by precipitation) from 1990-2015 in 12 catchments (183-1,744 km2) in western Oregon. In general, runoff ratios increased by 10-27% in catchments with a total area of SNC >10%, with the most substantial runoff increases in catchments with SNC impacting >25% of the area. Interestingly, the most severely impacted catchment ( 90.5% SNC) showed a decrease in runoff. This is consistent with a potential compensatory response from understory western hemlock (Tsuga heterophylla) trees, a phenomenon observed in the most severely impacted sites. Findings from this study are important for assessing the impacts of biotic forest disturbances on water supply and aquatic ecosystem health.

  4. Discrete epidemic models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brauer, Fred; Feng, Zhilan; Castillo-Chavez, Carlos

    2010-01-01

    The mathematical theory of single outbreak epidemic models really began with the work of Kermack and Mackendrick about decades ago. This gave a simple answer to the long-standing question of why epidemics woould appear suddenly and then disappear just as suddenly without having infected an entire population. Therefore it seemed natural to expect that theoreticians would immediately proceed to expand this mathematical framework both because the need to handle recurrent single infectious disease outbreaks has always been a priority for public health officials and because theoreticians often try to push the limits of exiting theories. However, the expansion of the theory via the inclusion of refined epidemiological classifications or through the incorporation of categories that are essential for the evaluation of intervention strategies, in the context of ongoing epidemic outbreaks, did not materialize. It was the global threat posed by SARS in that caused theoreticians to expand the Kermack-McKendrick single-outbreak framework. Most recently, efforts to connect theoretical work to data have exploded as attempts to deal with the threat of emergent and re-emergent diseases including the most recent H1N1 influenza pandemic, have marched to the forefront of our global priorities. Since data are collected and/or reported over discrete units of time, developing single outbreak models that fit collected data naturally is relevant. In this note, we introduce a discrete-epidemic framework and highlight, through our analyses, the similarities between single-outbreak comparable classical continuous-time epidemic models and the discrete-time models introduced in this note. The emphasis is on comparisons driven by expressions for the final epidemic size.

  5. Data-driven interdisciplinary mathematical modelling quantitatively unveils competition dynamics of co-circulating influenza strains.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ho, Bin-Shenq; Chao, Kun-Mao

    2017-07-28

    Co-circulation of influenza strains is common to seasonal epidemics and pandemic emergence. Competition was considered involved in the vicissitudes of co-circulating influenza strains but never quantitatively studied at the human population level. The main purpose of the study was to explore the competition dynamics of co-circulating influenza strains in a quantitative way. We constructed a heterogeneous dynamic transmission model and ran the model to fit the weekly A/H1N1 influenza virus isolation rate through an influenza season. The construction process started on the 2007-2008 single-clade influenza season and, with the contribution from the clade-based A/H1N1 epidemiological curves, advanced to the 2008-2009 two-clade influenza season. Pearson method was used to estimate the correlation coefficient between the simulated epidemic curve and the observed weekly A/H1N1 influenza virus isolation rate curve. The model found the potentially best-fit simulation with correlation coefficient up to 96% and all the successful simulations converging to the best-fit. The annual effective reproductive number of each co-circulating influenza strain was estimated. We found that, during the 2008-2009 influenza season, the annual effective reproductive number of the succeeding A/H1N1 clade 2B-2, carrying H275Y mutation in the neuraminidase, was estimated around 1.65. As to the preceding A/H1N1 clade 2C-2, the annual effective reproductive number would originally be equivalent to 1.65 but finally took on around 0.75 after the emergence of clade 2B-2. The model reported that clade 2B-2 outcompeted for the 2008-2009 influenza season mainly because clade 2C-2 suffered from a reduction of transmission fitness of around 71% on encountering the former. We conclude that interdisciplinary data-driven mathematical modelling could bring to light the transmission dynamics of the A/H1N1 H275Y strains during the 2007-2009 influenza seasons worldwide and may inspire us to tackle the

  6. Effectiveness of the influenza a(H1N1)PDM09 vaccine in adults recommended for annual influenza vaccination : A case-control study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gefenaite, Giedre; Tacken, Margot; Bos, Jens; Stirbu-Wagner, Irina; Korevaar, Joke C.; Stolk, Ronald P.; Wolters, Bert; Bijl, Marc; Postma, Maarten J.; Wilschut, Jan; Nichol, Kristin L.; Hak, Eelko

    Background: Because of variability in published A(H1N1)pdm09 influenza vaccine effectiveness estimates, we aimed to assess the effectiveness of MF59-adjuvanted A(H1N1)pdm09 vaccine in a matched case-control study. Objectives: We aimed to assess the effectiveness of MF59- adjuvanted A(H1N1)pdm09

  7. Viruses associated with human and animal influenza - a review ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In this review, the most important viruses associated with human and animal influenza are reported. These include Influenza A,B and C. Influenza viruses are members of the family Orthomyxoviridae. Influenza A virus being the most pathogenic and wide spread with many subtypes has constantly cause epidemics in several ...

  8. Clinical outcomes of seasonal influenza and pandemic influenza A (H1N1 in pediatric inpatients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Budd Alicia

    2010-10-01

    infection control efforts. We believe that this attention should become an annual effort for SI. Strong unified messages from health care providers and the media encouraging influenza vaccination will likely prove very useful in averting some of the morbidity related to influenza for future epidemics.

  9. Influenza as a human disease

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    First page Back Continue Last page Graphics. Influenza as a human disease. Commonly perceived as a mild disease, affects every one, sometimes a couple of times in a year. Globally, seasonal influenza epidemics result in about three to five million yearly cases of severe illness and about 250,000 to 500,000 yearly ...

  10. Critical analysis of deaths due to atypical pneumonia during the onset of the influenza A (H1N1) virus epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grijalva-Otero, Israel; Talavera, Juan Osvaldo; Solorzano-Santos, Fortino; Vazquez-Rosales, Guillermo; Vladislavovna-Doubova, Svetlana; Pérez-Cuevas, Ricardo; Miranda-Novales, Guadalupe; García-Peña, Carmen; Espinel-Bermúdez, Claudia; Torres, Javier; de la Peña, Jorge Escobedo

    2009-11-01

    The ongoing influenza A (H1N1) pandemic stroked Mexico and posed a huge challenge to the medical care and public health systems. This report analyzes the clinical course and process of care of patients who died due to atypical pneumonia and fulfilled the clinical criteria of suspected case of novel influenza A (H1N1) virus infection. We conducted a retrospective analysis of a series of 38 patients who died between April 7 and April 28, 2009 at Instituto Mexicano del Seguro Social (IMSS) hospitals due to severe pneumonia and respiratory distress. These cases coincided with the beginning of the outbreak, so patients did not undergo laboratory testing to diagnose influenza. According to IMSS and CDC criteria, post-hoc analysis allowed considering the presumptive diagnosis of S-OIV infection. A multidisciplinary group analyzed the information from the clinical charts, laboratory tests, radiographic studies and death certificates, using descriptive statistics. Most cases were middle-aged (mean 33 years, range: 4-62 years) and previously healthy; 18.4% had an underlying chronic disease, 23.7% were obese and 7.9% were current smokers. None had received the seasonal influenza vaccine; they had cough (92%), fever (86.8%), and malaise (73.7%). The median time from disease onset to hospital admission was 6 days (range 0-8 days). All were admitted to the intensive care unit with pneumonia and/or respiratory distress. Average time from disease onset to death was 8 days (range 4-18 days). An increased number of severe cases of atypical pneumonia in previously healthy adults highlight the importance of the availability of a timely surveillance system able to identify sudden increases in the number of cases or presentation of apparently known diseases.

  11. Comparing pandemic to seasonal influenza mortality: moderate impact overall but high mortality in young children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wijngaard, Cees C van den; Asten, Liselotte van; Koopmans, Marion P G; Pelt, Wilfrid van; Nagelkerke, Nico J D; Wielders, Cornelia C H; Lier, Alies van; Hoek, Wim van der; Meijer, Adam; Donker, Gé A; Dijkstra, Frederika; Harmsen, Carel; Sande, Marianne A B van der; Kretzschmar, Mirjam

    2012-01-01

    We assessed the severity of the 2009 influenza pandemic by comparing pandemic mortality to seasonal influenza mortality. However, reported pandemic deaths were laboratory-confirmed - and thus an underestimation - whereas seasonal influenza mortality is often more inclusively estimated. For a valid comparison, our study used the same statistical methodology and data types to estimate pandemic and seasonal influenza mortality. We used data on all-cause mortality (1999-2010, 100% coverage, 16.5 million Dutch population) and influenza-like-illness (ILI) incidence (0.8% coverage). Data was aggregated by week and age category. Using generalized estimating equation regression models, we attributed mortality to influenza by associating mortality with ILI-incidence, while adjusting for annual shifts in association. We also adjusted for respiratory syncytial virus, hot/cold weather, other seasonal factors and autocorrelation. For the 2009 pandemic season, we estimated 612 (range 266-958) influenza-attributed deaths; for seasonal influenza 1,956 (range 0-3,990). 15,845 years-of-life-lost were estimated for the pandemic; for an average seasonal epidemic 17,908. For 0-4 yrs of age the number of influenza-attributed deaths during the pandemic were higher than in any seasonal epidemic; 77 deaths (range 61-93) compared to 16 deaths (range 0-45). The ≥75 yrs of age showed a far below average number of deaths. Using pneumonia/influenza and respiratory/cardiovascular instead of all-cause deaths consistently resulted in relatively low total pandemic mortality, combined with high impact in the youngest age category. The pandemic had an overall moderate impact on mortality compared to 10 preceding seasonal epidemics, with higher mortality in young children and low mortality in the elderly. This resulted in a total number of pandemic deaths far below the average for seasonal influenza, and a total number of years-of-life-lost somewhat below average. Comparing pandemic and seasonal

  12. [Influenza surveillance in nine consecutive seasons, 2003-2012: results from National Influenza Reference Laboratory, Istanbul Faculty Of Medicine, Turkey].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akçay Ciblak, Meral; Kanturvardar Tütenyurd, Melis; Asar, Serkan; Tulunoğlu, Merve; Fındıkçı, Nurcihan; Badur, Selim

    2012-10-01

    Influenza is a public health problem that affects 5-20% of the world population annually causing high morbidity and mortality especially in risk groups. In addition to determining prevention and treatment strategies with vaccines and antivirals, surveillance data plays an important role in combat against influenza. Surveillance provides valuable data on characteristics of influenza activity, on types, sub-types, antigenic properties and antiviral resistance profile of circulating viruses in a given region. The first influenza surveillance was initiated as a pilot study in 2003 by now named National Influenza Reference Laboratory, Istanbul Faculty of Medicine. Surveillance was launched at national level by Ministry of Health in 2004 and two National Influenza Laboratories, one in Istanbul and the other in Ankara, have been conducting surveillance in Turkey. Surveillance data obtained for nine consecutive years, 2003-2012, by National Influenza Reference Laboratory in Istanbul Faculty of Medicine have been summarized in this report. During 2003-2012 influenza surveillance seasons, a total of 11.077 nasal swabs collected in viral transport medium were sent to the National Influenza Reference Laboratory, Istanbul for analysis. Immun-capture ELISA followed by MDCK cell culture was used for detection of influenza viruses before 2009 and real-time RT-PCR was used thereafter. Antigenic characterizations were done by hemagglutination inhibition assay with the reactives supplied by World Health Organization. Analysis of the results showed that influenza B viruses have entered the circulation in 2005-2006 seasons, and have contributed to the epidemics at increasing rates every year except in the 2009 pandemic season. Influenza B Victoria and Yamagata lineages were cocirculating for two seasons. For other seasons either lineage was in circulation. Antigenic characterization revealed that circulating B viruses matched the vaccine composition either partially or totally for only

  13. Entre doutores e para os leigos: fragmentos do discurso médico na influenza de 1918 Among doctors and for the lay: fragments of the medical discourse during the 1918 flu epidemic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liane Maria Bertucci-Martins

    2005-04-01

    Full Text Available Notícias vindas da Europa sobre uma nova epidemia, a gripe espanhola ou influenza espanhola, apareceram nos jornais da cidade de São Paulo em junho de 1918. No dia 15 de outubro, o Serviço Sanitário do Estado confirmava os primeiros casos da doença na cidade. Em meio às discussões sobre a natureza da moléstia e às várias propostas terapêuticas que marcaram o período epidêmico, destaco duas indicações para o tratamento dos doentes: as prescrições aprovadas pela Academia Paulista de Medicina e a 'mercurialização'. Buscando ordenar saberes sobre a gripe espanhola e, indiretamente, instruir a população, as apresentações e os debates sobre os tratamentos explicitavam tanto a forma como o discurso médico-científico era elaborado quanto o seu crescente hermetismo para o entendimento popular.News from Europe of a new epidemic, called the Spanish influenza or Spanish flu, began appearing in São Paulo city newspapers in June 1918. On 15 October, the State Sanitation Service confirmed the occurrence of the first cases in the city. From among the discussions on the nature of the disease and the various treatment proposals then brought forward, I highlight two suggested treatments: the recommendations approved by the São Paulo Academy of Medicine, and "mercurialization." In this effort to organize knowledge about the Spanish flu and, indirectly, to instruct the population at large, proposals and debates surrounding forms of treatment demonstrated both how medical-scientific discourse was developed and how it was growing ever more arcane to the general population.

  14. Pandemic influenza: certain uncertainties.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morens, David M; Taubenberger, Jeffery K

    2011-09-01

    For at least five centuries, major epidemics and pandemics of influenza have occurred unexpectedly and at irregular intervals. Despite the modern notion that pandemic influenza is a distinct phenomenon obeying such constant (if incompletely understood) rules such as dramatic genetic change, cyclicity, "wave" patterning, virus replacement, and predictable epidemic behavior, much evidence suggests the opposite. Although there is much that we know about pandemic influenza, there appears to be much more that we do not know. Pandemics arise as a result of various genetic mechanisms, have no predictable patterns of mortality among different age groups, and vary greatly in how and when they arise and recur. Some are followed by new pandemics, whereas others fade gradually or abruptly into long-term endemicity. Human influenza pandemics have been caused by viruses that evolved singly or in co-circulation with other pandemic virus descendants and often have involved significant transmission between, or establishment of, viral reservoirs within other animal hosts. In recent decades, pandemic influenza has continued to produce numerous unanticipated events that expose fundamental gaps in scientific knowledge. Influenza pandemics appear to be not a single phenomenon but a heterogeneous collection of viral evolutionary events whose similarities are overshadowed by important differences, the determinants of which remain poorly understood. These uncertainties make it difficult to predict influenza pandemics and, therefore, to adequately plan to prevent them. Published 2011. This article is a US Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

  15. Pandemic influenza: certain uncertainties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morens, David M.; Taubenberger, Jeffery K.

    2011-01-01

    SUMMARY For at least five centuries, major epidemics and pandemics of influenza have occurred unexpectedly and at irregular intervals. Despite the modern notion that pandemic influenza is a distinct phenomenon obeying such constant (if incompletely understood) rules such as dramatic genetic change, cyclicity, “wave” patterning, virus replacement, and predictable epidemic behavior, much evidence suggests the opposite. Although there is much that we know about pandemic influenza, there appears to be much more that we do not know. Pandemics arise as a result of various genetic mechanisms, have no predictable patterns of mortality among different age groups, and vary greatly in how and when they arise and recur. Some are followed by new pandemics, whereas others fade gradually or abruptly into long-term endemicity. Human influenza pandemics have been caused by viruses that evolved singly or in co-circulation with other pandemic virus descendants and often have involved significant transmission between, or establishment of, viral reservoirs within other animal hosts. In recent decades, pandemic influenza has continued to produce numerous unanticipated events that expose fundamental gaps in scientific knowledge. Influenza pandemics appear to be not a single phenomenon but a heterogeneous collection of viral evolutionary events whose similarities are overshadowed by important differences, the determinants of which remain poorly understood. These uncertainties make it difficult to predict influenza pandemics and, therefore, to adequately plan to prevent them. PMID:21706672

  16. Prognosis of Possible Reassortments in Recent H5N2 Epidemic Influenza in USA: Implications for Computer-Assisted Surveillance As Well As Drug/Vaccine Design.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nandy, Ashesh; Basak, Subhash C

    2015-01-01

    The recent H5N2 flu epidemic in US Midwest has led to deaths of millions of turkeys and farm bred poultry. While no human infections are reported to date, the rapid mutations in flu viruses can lead to more pathogenic subtypes. We have investigated such possibilities and have shown that H5N4, H5N9 and H5N6 are the most likely candidates for next round of viral reassortments, amongst which H5N9, if reassorted from Asiatic strains, could be highly pathogenic. We discuss here possibilities of anticipatory rational vaccine design based on work done earlier.

  17. Characterization of regional influenza seasonality patterns in China and implications for vaccination strategies: spatio-temporal modeling of surveillance data.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hongjie Yu

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available The complexity of influenza seasonal patterns in the inter-tropical zone impedes the establishment of effective routine immunization programs. China is a climatologically and economically diverse country, which has yet to establish a national influenza vaccination program. Here we characterize the diversity of influenza seasonality in China and make recommendations to guide future vaccination programs.We compiled weekly reports of laboratory-confirmed influenza A and B infections from sentinel hospitals in cities representing 30 Chinese provinces, 2005-2011, and data on population demographics, mobility patterns, socio-economic, and climate factors. We applied linear regression models with harmonic terms to estimate influenza seasonal characteristics, including the amplitude of annual and semi-annual periodicities, their ratio, and peak timing. Hierarchical Bayesian modeling and hierarchical clustering were used to identify predictors of influenza seasonal characteristics and define epidemiologically-relevant regions. The annual periodicity of influenza A epidemics increased with latitude (mean amplitude of annual cycle standardized by mean incidence, 140% [95% CI 128%-151%] in the north versus 37% [95% CI 27%-47%] in the south, p0.6 in provinces located within 27.4°N-31.3°N, slope of latitudinal gradient with latitude -0.016 [95% CI -0.025 to -0.008], p<0.001. In contrast, influenza B activity predominated in colder months throughout most of China. Climate factors were the strongest predictors of influenza seasonality, including minimum temperature, hours of sunshine, and maximum rainfall. Our main study limitations include a short surveillance period and sparse influenza sampling in some of the southern provinces.Regional-specific influenza vaccination strategies would be optimal in China; in particular, annual campaigns should be initiated 4-6 months apart in Northern and Southern China. Influenza surveillance should be strengthened in mid

  18. A Functional Role of Fibroblast Growth Factor Receptor 1 (FGFR1 in the Suppression of Influenza A Virus Replication.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xin Liu

    Full Text Available Influenza A virus causes annual epidemics and occasional pandemics in humans. Here, we investigated four members of the fibroblast growth factor receptor (FGFR family; FGFR1 to 4, and examined their expression patterns in human lung epithelial cells A549 with influenza A virus infection. We identified a functional role of FGFR1 in influenza A/Puerto Rico/8/1934 (PR8 and A/Anhui/01/2005 (H5N1 virus replication. Our results showed that FGFR1 silencing by siRNA interference promoted influenza A/PR8 and H5N1 virus replication in A549 cells, while lentivirus-mediated exogenous FGFR1 expression significantly suppressed influenza A virus replication; however, FGFR4 did not have the same effects. Moreover, FGFR1 phosphorylation levels were downregulated in A549 cells by influenza A virus infection, while the repression of FGFR1 kinase using PD173074, a potent and selective FGFR1 inhibitor, could enhance virus replication. Furthermore, we found that FGFR1 inhibits influenza virus internalization, but not binding, during viral entry. These results suggested that FGFR1 specifically antagonizes influenza A virus replication, probably by blocking viral entry.

  19. Lessons from the epidemiological surveillance program, during the influenza A (H1N1 virus epidemic, in a reference university hospital of Southeastern Brazil Lições aprendidas pelo programa de vigilância epidemiológica, durante a epidemia pelo vírus da influenza A (H1N1, em um hospital universitário na região sudeste do Brasil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Luiza Moretti

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: The case definition of influenza-like illness (ILI is a powerful epidemiological tool during influenza epidemics. METHODS: A prospective cohort study was conducted to evaluate the impact of two definitions used as epidemiological tools, in adults and children, during the influenza A H1N1 epidemic. Patients were included if they had upper respiratory samples tested for influenza by real-time reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction during two periods, using the ILI definition (coughing + temperature > 38ºC in period 1, and the definition of severe acute respiratory infection (ARS (coughing + temperature > 38ºC and dyspnoea in period 2. RESULTS: The study included 366 adults and 147 children, covering 243 cases of ILI and 270 cases of ARS. Laboratory confirmed cases of influenza were higher in adults (50% than in children (21.6% ( p INTRODUÇÃO: A definição de síndrome gripal é uma ferramenta epidemiológica importante durante epidemias de influenza. MÉTODOS: Foi conduzido estudo de coorte prospectivo para avaliar o impacto das definições de síndrome gripal (SG e doença respiratória aguda grave (DRAG como ferramenta de vigilância epidemiológica, em adultos e crianças, durante a epidemia de influenza A H1N1. Os pacientes foram incluídos se tivessem coleta de secreção respiratória alta testada por PCR real time para o vírus da influenza. Os dados clínicos e epidemiológicos foram estudados comparando-se dois períodos: período 1: SG (tosse + temperatura > 38ºC, e período 2: DRAG (tosse + temperatura > 38 e dispnéia. RESULTADOS: Foram incluídos 366 adultos e 147 crianças, em um total de 243 casos de SG e 270 DRAG. A confirmação laboratorial de influenza em adultos (50% foi significativamente maior do que em crianças (21,6% (p < 0,0001 e a definição de SG foi mais confirmatória de infecção por influenza (53% do que DRAG (24,4% (p < 0,0001. Adultos referiam mais calafrios e mialgias do que as

  20. The Effectiveness of Age-Specific Isolation Policies on Epidemics of Influenza A (H1N1 in a Large City in Central South China.

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    Ruchun Liu

    Full Text Available During the early stage of a pandemic, isolation is the most effective means of controlling transmission. However, the effectiveness of age-specific isolation policies is not clear; especially little information is available concerning their effectiveness in China. Epidemiological and serological survey data in the city of Changsha were employed to estimate key model parameters. The average infectious period (date of recovery-date of symptom onset of influenza A (H1N1 was 5.2 days. Of all infected persons, 45.93% were asymptomatic. The basic reproduction number of the influenza A (H1N1 pandemic was 1.82. Based on the natural history of influenza A (H1N1, we built an extended susceptible-exposed-infectious/asymptomatic-removed model, taking age groups: 0-5, 6-14, 15-24, 25-59, and ≥60 years into consideration for isolation. Without interventions, the total attack rates (TARs in each age group were 42.73%, 41.95%, 20.51%, 45.03%, and 37.49%, respectively. Although the isolation of 25-59 years-old persons was the most effective, the TAR of individuals of aged 0-5 and 6-14 could not be reduced. Paradoxically, isolating individuals ≥60 year olds was not predicted to be an effective way of reducing the TAR in this group but isolating the age-group 25-59 did, which implies inter-age-group transmission from the latter to the former is significant. Isolating multiple age groups increased effectiveness. The most effective combined isolation target groups were of 6-14 + 25-59 year olds, 6-14 + 15-24 + 25-59 year olds, and 0-5 + 6-14 + 25-59 + ≥60 year olds. The last of these isolation schemas reduced the TAR of the total population from 39.64% to 0.006%, which was exceptionally close to the effectiveness of isolating all five age groups (TAR = 0.004%.

  1. Novel vaccines against influenza viruses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kang, S M; Song, J M; Compans, R W

    2011-12-01

    Killed and live attenuated influenza virus vaccines are effective in preventing and curbing the spread of influenza epidemics when the strains present in the vaccines are closely matched with the predicted epidemic strains. These vaccines are primarily targeted to induce immunity to the variable major target antigen, hemagglutinin (HA) of influenza virus. However, current vaccines are not effective in preventing the emergence of new pandemic or highly virulent viruses. New approaches are being investigated to develop universal influenza virus vaccines as well as to apply more effective vaccine delivery methods. Conserved vaccine targets including the influenza M2 ion channel protein and HA stalk domains are being developed using recombinant technologies to improve the level of cross protection. In addition, recent studies provide evidence that vaccine supplements can provide avenues to further improve current vaccies. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  2. The population impact of a large school-based influenza vaccination campaign.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos G Grijalva

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available The optimal vaccination strategy to mitigate the impact of influenza epidemics is unclear. In 2005, a countywide school-based influenza vaccination campaign was launched in Knox County, Tennessee (population 385,899. Approximately 41% and 48% of eligible county children aged 5-17 years were immunized with live attenuated influenza vaccine before the 2005-2006 and 2006-2007 influenza seasons, respectively. We sought to determine the population impact of this campaign.Laboratory-confirmed influenza data defined influenza seasons. We calculated the incidence of medically attended acute respiratory illness attributable to influenza in Knox and Knox-surrounding counties (concurrent controls during consecutive seasons (5 precampaign and 2 campaign seasons using negative binomial regression and rate difference methods. Age-stratified analyses compared the incidence of emergency department (ED visits and hospitalizations attributable to influenza.During precampaign seasons, estimated ED visit rates attributable to influenza were 12.39 (95% CI: 10.34-14.44 per 1000 Knox children aged 5-17 years and similar in Knox-surrounding counties. During the campaign seasons, annual Knox influenza-associated ED visit rates declined relative to rates in Knox-surrounding counties: rate ratios 0.55 (95% CI: 0.27-0.83 and 0.70 (95% CI: 0.56-0.84 for the first and second campaign seasons, respectively. Overall, there were about 35% or 4.86 per 1000 fewer influenza-associated ED visits among Knox County children aged 5-17 years attributable to the campaign. No significant declines in Knox compared to surrounding counties were detected for influenza associated ED visits in children aged <5 years, all adults combined or selected adult age subgroups, although power for these analyses was limited. Alternate rate-difference analyses yielded consistent results.Vaccination of approximately 45% of Knox school-aged children with influenza vaccine was associated with a 35% annual

  3. [Mathematic prognosis of cagocel effectiveness for prophylaxis and therapy of influenza].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ershov, F I; Boev, B V; Ershov, I F

    2014-01-01

    The possibility of using a mathematic model of influenza epidemic in evaluation of effectiveness of an etiotropic preparation cagocel for prophylaxis and therapy of influenza as well as determination of possible damage from influenza epidemics and outbreaks in major cities of Russia is shown.

  4. Review of 10 years of clinical experience with Chinese domestic trivalent influenza vaccine Anflu®.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yan; Wu, Jun-Yu; Wang, Xu; Chen, Jiang-Ting; Xia, Ming; Hu, Wei; Zou, Yong; Yin, Wei-Dong

    2014-01-01

    Influenza viruses cause annual winter epidemics globally and influenza vaccination is most effective way to prevent the disease or severe outcomes from the illness, especially in developing countries. However, the majority of the world's total production capacity of influenza vaccine is concentrated in several large multinational manufacturers. A safe and effective preventive vaccine for the developing countries is urgent. Anflu®, a Chinese domestic preservative-free, split-virus trivalent influenza vaccine (TIV), was introduced by Sinovac Biotech Ltd. in 2006. Until now, 20.6 million doses worldwide of Anflu® were sold. Since 2003, 13 company-sponsored clinical studies investigating the immunogenicity and safety of Anflu® have been completed, in which 6642 subjects participated and were vaccinated by Anflu®. Anflu® was generally well tolerated in all age groups, and highly immunogenic in healthy adults and elderly and exceeded the licensure criteria in Europe. This review presents and discusses the experience with Anflu® during the past decade. A new Chinese domestic, preservative-free, unadjuvanted, inactivated split-virus trivalent influenza vaccine (TIV), Anflu®, was introduced into human clinical trials in 2003 and then licensed in China in 2006. The vaccine contains 15 µg/0.5 ml hemagglutinin from each of the 3 influenza virus strains (including an H1N1 influenza A virus subtype, an H3N2 influenza A virus subtype, and an influenza B virus) that are expected to be circulating in the up-coming influenza season. The clinical data pertaining to Anflu® will be reviewed and compared with other TIVs available at present.

  5. Influenza A (H10N7) Virus Causes Respiratory Tract Disease in Harbor Seals and Ferrets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van den Brand, Judith M A; Wohlsein, Peter; Herfst, Sander; Bodewes, Rogier; Pfankuche, Vanessa M; van de Bildt, Marco W G; Seehusen, Frauke; Puff, Christina; Richard, Mathilde; Siebert, Ursula; Lehnert, Kristina; Bestebroer, Theo; Lexmond, Pascal; Fouchier, Ron A M; Prenger-Berninghoff, Ellen; Herbst, Werner; Koopmans, Marion; Osterhaus, Albert D M E; Kuiken, Thijs; Baumgärtner, Wolfgang

    2016-01-01

    Avian influenza viruses sporadically cross the species barrier to mammals, including humans, in which they may cause epidemic disease. Recently such an epidemic occurred due to the emergence of avian influenza virus of the subtype H10N7 (Seal/H10N7) in harbor seals (Phoca vitulina). This epidemic

  6. Influenza-associated hospitalization in a subtropical city.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chit Ming Wong

    2006-04-01

    Full Text Available The impact of influenza on morbidity and hospitalization in the tropics and subtropics is poorly quantified. Uniquely, the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region has computerized hospital discharge diagnoses on 95% of total bed days, allowing disease burden for a well-defined population to be accurately assessed.Influenza-associated morbidity and hospitalization was assessed by Poisson regression models for weekly counts of hospitalizations in Hong Kong during 1996 to 2000, using proportions of positive influenza types A (H1N1 and H3N2 and B isolations in specimens sent for laboratory diagnosis as measures of influenza virus circulation. We adjusted for annual trend, seasonality, temperature, and relative humidity, as well as respiratory syncytial virus circulation. We found that influenza was significantly associated with hospitalization for acute respiratory disease (International Classification of Diseases version 9 codes [ICD9] 460-466 and 480-487 and its subcategory pneumonia and influenza (ICD9 480-487 for all age groups. The annual rates of excess hospitalization per 100,000 population for acute respiratory diseases for the age groups 0-14, 15-39, 40-64, 65-74, and 75+ were 163.3 (95% confidence interval [CI], 135-190, 6.0 (95% CI, 2.7-8.9, 14.9 (95% CI, 10.7-18.8, 83.8 (95% CI, 61.2-104.2, and 266 (95% CI, 198.7-330.2, respectively. Influenza was also associated with hospitalization for cerebrovascular disease (ICD9 430-438 for those aged over 75 y (55.4; 95% CI, 23.1-87.8; ischemic heart disease (ICD9 410-414 for the age group 40-64 y (5.3; 95% CI, 0.5-9.5 and over 75 y (56.4; 95% CI, 21.1-93.4; and diabetes mellitus (ICD9 250 for all age groups older than 40 y.Influenza has a major impact on hospitalization due to cardio-respiratory diseases as well as on cerebrovascular disease, ischemic heart disease, and diabetes mellitus in the tropics and subtropics. Better utilization of influenza vaccine during annual epidemics in the tropics

  7. Percepción de competencias en epidemiología en México y Colombia durante la epidemia de influenza A (H1N1 entre estudiantes de salud pública Perception of epidemiological competencies by public health students in Mexico and Colombia during the influenza A (H1N1 epidemic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alvaro J Idrovo

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available OBJETIVO: Conocer la percepción que los estudiantes de salud pública en México y en Colombia tuvieron sobre el manejo de la epidemia de influenza A (H1N1, como una forma para indagar qué contenidos curriculares pueden ser mejorados en la formación en epidemiología. MÉTODOS: Encuesta durante la epidemia, entre junio y agosto de 2009, a estudiantes de posgrado. Se evaluaron las 30 competencias epidemiológicas del Council of State and Territorial Epidemiologists para "epidemiólogos intermedios". Se describieron los resultados estratificando por covariables, y se identificaron las competencias con menor desarrollo mediante análisis factorial exploratorio. RESULTADOS: Participaron 154 estudiantes, de los cuales 55,8% estaban en México. Se observaron diferencias importantes en el perfil de los estudiantes de ambos países, lo cual explica parcialmente la percepción de respuesta a la epidemia. En el análisis factorial el primer factor, que explica 21,5% de la varianza, presentó menores puntajes y se asoció con competencias relacionadas con el vínculo entre el personal sanitario y la comunidad, donde resultan relevantes conocimientos de ciencias sociales y habilidades de comunicación. CONCLUSIONES: Los estudiantes percibieron que la respuesta frente a la epidemia podría haber sido mejor. Se sugiere incorporar en la educación de los recursos humanos en salud pública temáticas sobre cultura y sus efectos sobre conductas y pensamientos, el reconocimiento de los prejuicios de los expertos, la comunicación efectiva con las comunidades, y la habilidad para adaptarse ante nuevas situaciones. El "experimento natural" de la epidemia facilitó la identificación de áreas de oportunidad para mejorar la enseñanza de la epidemiología ante contingencias sanitarias.OBJECTIVE: Learn about the perception of public health students in Mexico and Colombia regarding the management of the influenza A (H1N1 epidemic to determine which curriculum

  8. Predictive validation of an influenza spread model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ayaz Hyder

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Modeling plays a critical role in mitigating impacts of seasonal influenza epidemics. Complex simulation models are currently at the forefront of evaluating optimal mitigation strategies at multiple scales and levels of organization. Given their evaluative role, these models remain limited in their ability to predict and forecast future epidemics leading some researchers and public-health practitioners to question their usefulness. The objective of this study is to evaluate the predictive ability of an existing complex simulation model of influenza spread. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We used extensive data on past epidemics to demonstrate the process of predictive validation. This involved generalizing an individual-based model for influenza spread and fitting it to laboratory-confirmed influenza infection data from a single observed epidemic (1998-1999. Next, we used the fitted model and modified two of its parameters based on data on real-world perturbations (vaccination coverage by age group and strain type. Simulating epidemics under these changes allowed us to estimate the deviation/error between the expected epidemic curve under perturbation and observed epidemics taking place from 1999 to 2006. Our model was able to forecast absolute intensity and epidemic peak week several weeks earlier with reasonable reliability and depended on the method of forecasting-static or dynamic. CONCLUSIONS: Good predictive ability of influenza epidemics is critical for implementing mitigation strategies in an effective and timely manner. Through the process of predictive validation applied to a current complex simulation model of influenza spread, we provided users of the model (e.g. public-health officials and policy-makers with quantitative metrics and practical recommendations on mitigating impacts of seasonal influenza epidemics. This methodology may be applied to other models of communicable infectious diseases to test and potentially improve

  9. Predictive Validation of an Influenza Spread Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hyder, Ayaz; Buckeridge, David L.; Leung, Brian

    2013-01-01

    Background Modeling plays a critical role in mitigating impacts of seasonal influenza epidemics. Complex simulation models are currently at the forefront of evaluating optimal mitigation strategies at multiple scales and levels of organization. Given their evaluative role, these models remain limited in their ability to predict and forecast future epidemics leading some researchers and public-health practitioners to question their usefulness. The objective of this study is to evaluate the predictive ability of an existing complex simulation model of influenza spread. Methods and Findings We used extensive data on past epidemics to demonstrate the process of predictive validation. This involved generalizing an individual-based model for influenza spread and fitting it to laboratory-confirmed influenza infection data from a single observed epidemic (1998–1999). Next, we used the fitted model and modified two of its parameters based on data on real-world perturbations (vaccination coverage by age group and strain type). Simulating epidemics under these changes allowed us to estimate the deviation/error between the expected epidemic curve under perturbation and observed epidemics taking place from 1999 to 2006. Our model was able to forecast absolute intensity and epidemic peak week several weeks earlier with reasonable reliability and depended on the method of forecasting-static or dynamic. Conclusions Good predictive ability of influenza epidemics is critical for implementing mitigation strategies in an effective and timely manner. Through the process of predictive validation applied to a current complex simulation model of influenza spread, we provided users of the model (e.g. public-health officials and policy-makers) with quantitative metrics and practical recommendations on mitigating impacts of seasonal influenza epidemics. This methodology may be applied to other models of communicable infectious diseases to test and potentially improve their predictive

  10. Mortality attributable to seasonal and pandemic influenza, Australia, 2003 to 2009, using a novel time series smoothing approach.

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    David J Muscatello

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Official statistics under-estimate influenza deaths. Time series methods allow the estimation of influenza-attributable mortality. The methods often model background, non-influenza mortality using a cyclic, harmonic regression model based on the Serfling approach. This approach assumes that the seasonal pattern of non-influenza mortality is the same each year, which may not always be accurate. AIM: To estimate Australian seasonal and pandemic influenza-attributable mortality from 2003 to 2009, and to assess a more flexible influenza mortality estimation approach. METHODS: We used a semi-parametric generalized additive model (GAM to replace the conventional seasonal harmonic terms with a smoothing spline of time ('spline model' to estimate influenza-attributable respiratory, respiratory and circulatory, and all-cause mortality in persons aged <65 and ≥ 65 years. Influenza A(H1N1pdm09, seasonal influenza A and B virus laboratory detection time series were used as independent variables. Model fit and estimates were compared with those of a harmonic model. RESULTS: Compared with the harmonic model, the spline model improved model fit by up to 20%. In <65 year-olds, the estimated respiratory mortality attributable to pandemic influenza A(H1N1pdm09 was 0.5 (95% confidence interval (CI, 0.3, 0.7 per 100,000; similar to that of the years with the highest seasonal influenza A mortality, 2003 and 2007 (A/H3N2 years. In ≥ 65 year-olds, the highest annual seasonal influenza A mortality estimate was 25.8 (95% CI 22.2, 29.5 per 100,000 in 2003, five-fold higher than the non-statistically significant 2009 pandemic influenza estimate in that age group. Seasonal influenza B mortality estimates were negligible. CONCLUSIONS: The spline model achieved a better model fit. The study provides additional evidence that seasonal influenza, particularly A/H3N2, remains an important cause of mortality in Australia and that the epidemic of pandemic influenza

  11. Epidemic typhus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bechah, Yassina; Capo, Christian; Mege, Jean-Louis; Raoult, Didier

    2008-07-01

    Epidemic typhus is transmitted to human beings by the body louse Pediculus humanus corporis. The disease is still considered a major threat by public-health authorities, despite the efficacy of antibiotics, because poor sanitary conditions are conducive to louse proliferation. Until recently, Rickettsia prowazekii, the causal agent, was thought to be confined to human beings and their body lice. Since 1975, R prowazekii infection in human beings has been related to contact with the flying squirrel Glaucomys volans in the USA. Moreover, Brill-Zinsser disease, a relapsed form of epidemic typhus that appears as sporadic cases many years after the initial infection, is unrelated to louse infestation. Stress or a waning immune system are likely to reactivate this earlier persistent infection, which could be the source of new epidemics when conditions facilitate louse infestation. Finally, R prowazekii is a potential category B bioterrorism agent, because it is stable in dried louse faeces and can be transmitted through aerosols. An increased understanding of the pathogenesis of epidemic typhus may be useful for protection against this bacterial threat.

  12. Performance of clinical signs in poultry for the detection of outbreaks during the avian influenza A (H7N7) epidemic in The Netherlands in 2003.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elbers, Armin R W; Koch, Guus; Bouma, Annemarie

    2005-06-01

    The aim of this study was to make an inventory of the clinical signs of high-pathogenicity avian influenza (HPAI), to facilitate the development of an operational syndrome-reporting system (SRS) in The Netherlands as an early warning system for HPAI outbreaks. A total of 537 poultry flocks (240 infected and 297 non-infected) with a clinical suspicion of an infection with HPAI virus were investigated with respect to the clinical signs observed. Standardized reports were analysed with respect to observed clinical signs in the flocks. Various poultry types were distinguished. In infected commercial flocks with egg-producing chickens, the presence of increased mortality, apathy, coughing, reduction in normal vocalization, or pale eggs appeared to be overall the most sensitive indicators to detect a HPAI outbreak, matching a sensitivity of 99% with a specificity of 23%. In infected turkey flocks, the presence of apathy, decreased growth performance, reduction of normal vocalization, swollen sinuses, yawning, huddling, mucosal production from the beak, or lying down with an extended neck appeared to be overall the most sensitive indicators to detect a HPAI outbreak, matching a sensitivity of 100% with a specificity of 79%. In infected backyard/hobby flocks, increased mortality or swollen head appeared to be overall the most sensitive indicators of a HPAI outbreak, matching a sensitivity of 100% with a specificity of 26%. These results indicate that there is a solid basis for the choice of using increased mortality in the operational SRS in The Netherlands as an early warning system for HPAI outbreaks. The presence of apathy, specifically for turkeys, should be added to the SRS as an indicator.

  13. Benefits and limitations of the Witwatersrand influenza and acute ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    1993-03-25

    Mar 25, 1993 ... The Viral Watch Programme of the Institute was established in 1984 to obtain influenza isolates and measure influenza epidemics in this country! Over the past 2 years, parameters of influenza activity such as mortality data and respiratory morbidity indices have been added to the programme's activities.

  14. Efficacy of a Levulinic Acid Plus Sodium Dodecyl Sulfate (SDS)-Based Sanitizer on Inactivation of Influenza A Virus on Eggshells.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aydin, Ali; Cannon, Jennifer L; Zhao, Tong; Doyle, Michael P

    2013-10-17

    Influenza A virus poses a major public health concern and is associated with annual epidemics and occasional pandemics. Influenza A H3N2 viruses, which are an important cause of human influenza, can infect birds and mammals. Contaminated undercooked poultry products including eggs with avian influenza virus constitute a possible risk of transmission to humans. In this study, a novel levulinic acid plus sodium dodecyl sulfate (SDS) sanitizer was evaluated for eggshell decontamination. Influenza A H3N2 virus-inoculated chicken eggshells were treated with a 5 % levulinic acid plus 2 % SDS, 2 % levulinic acid plus 1 % SDS, and 0.5 % levulinic acid plus 0.5 % SDS liquid solution for 1 min. Log reductions of viable viruses were observed by plaque assay. The 5 % levulinic acid plus 2 % SDS sanitizer provided the greatest level of influenza A H3N2 virus inactivation (2.23 log PFU), and differences in virus inactivation were observed for the various levulinic acid plus SDS concentrations tested (P ≤ 0.05). To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study demonstrating influenza A H3N2 virus inactivation on eggshells using a novel levulinic acid plus SDS sanitizer. The sanitizer may be useful for reducing egg contamination and preventing the spread of avian influenza virus to humans.

  15. Seasonal influenza activity for 2005-2006 season seems to be ending in most European countries.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Paget, W.J.; Meijer, A.; Falcao, J.M.; Jong, J.C. de; Kyncl, J.; Meerhoff, T.J.; Meuwissen, L.E.; Nicoll, A.; Velden, J. van der

    2006-01-01

    During the 2005-2006 season, seasonal influenza epidemics started late in countries across Europe. Clinical influenza activity has only reached moderate levels and has mainly been associated with influenza B viruses. There has been co-circulation of influenza A and B viruses in many countries, and

  16. Design of the Dutch prevention of influenza, surveillance and management (PRISMA) study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hak, E; van Loon, S; Buskens, E; van Essen, G A; de Bakker, D; Tacken, M A J B; van Hout, B A; Grobbee, D E; Verheij, Th J M

    2003-01-01

    Rationale and design of a study on the cost-effectiveness of the Dutch influenza vaccination campaign are described. During two influenza epidemics, about 75,000 primary care patients recommended for influenza vaccination are included. Cases have fatal or non-fatal influenza, pneumonia, otitis

  17. Epidemia de influenza A(H1N1 en la Argentina: Experiencia del Hospital Nacional Profesor Alejandro Posadas Influenza A(H1N1 epidemic in Argentina: Experience in a National General Hospital (Hospital Nacional Profesor Alejandro Posadas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available Se describe la preparación y la atención médica durante la epidemia de influenza A(H1N1 (junio 2009 en un hospital general de agudos, público, de alta complejidad; con diagnóstico de laboratorio, internación general y cuidados intensivos (UCI. Se elaboró un plan para aumentar la capacidad asistencial, reasignar recursos y garantizar la bioseguridad. La consulta fue 7.1 ± 3.8 veces mayor que en 2006-2008. La detección de casos de A(H1N1 fue confirmada por PCR-RT en 186/486 (38.3% pacientes internados y en 56/176 (31.8% ambulatorios. Internados: mediana de edad 20 años; 75% menores de 45 y 32.3% menores de 15. Mortalidad global: 6.8%; 9.1% en los positivos. Adultos: recepción en un área de atención ambulatoria, internación (aislamiento y ventilación mecánica. Sala general: ingresaron 110 pacientes (5 veces más que 1999-2006 con saturación de oxígeno The preparation and medical care during the influenza A(H1N1 outbreak (June 2009 in a high complexity level, public, general hospital with laboratory diagnosis, general and intensive care (ICU hospitalization is described. A plan was designed to increase the hospital's surge capacity, reallocate resources and guarantee bio-safety. The number of consultations was 7.1 ± 3.8 times higher than during June 2006-2008. Detection of A(H1N1 cases were confirmed by PCR-RT in 186/486 (38.3% in-patients and 56/176 (31.8% out-patients. Median age among in-patients was 20 years; 75% < 45 and 32.3% < 15. Global mortality: 6.8%; 9.1% among confirmed cases. Adults were directed to a reception area of out-patient care, hospitalization (isolation and mechanical ventilation. General ward: 110 patients with oxygen saturation < 96% and/or risk factors (65.5% had asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, obesity, pregnancy or other were admitted (5 times more than in 1999-2006. Chest X-ray showed lung infiltrates and/or lung consolidation in 97.3%. Severe hypoxemia: 43.5%. There were no significant

  18. Influenza and bacterial pneumonia - constant companions

    OpenAIRE

    Wunderink, Richard G

    2010-01-01

    Sequential or concomitant influenza and bacterial pneumonia are two common syndromes seen in community-acquired pneumonia. Inadequacies of diagnostic testing make separating simple pneumonia with either bacteria or influenza from concomitant or sequential influenza with both microorganisms difficult, although the novel 2009 H1N1 epidemic may improve the availability of molecular testing for viruses. Given the frequency of viral pneumonia and diagnostic limitations, empirical antivirals may be...

  19. Salud pública global: un desafío a los límites de la salud internacional a propósito de la epidemia de influenza humana A Global public health: international health is tested to its limits by the human influenza A epidemic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Álvaro Franco-Giraldo

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available This article comes from the intense international pressure that follows a near-catastrophy, such as the human influenza A H1N1 epidemic, and the limited resources for confronting such events. The analysis covers prevailing 20th century trends in the international public health arena and the change-induced challenges brought on by globalization, the transition set in motion by what has been deemed the "new" international public health and an ever-increasing focus on global health, in the context of an international scenario of shifting risks and opportunities and a growing number of multinational players. Global public health is defined as a public right, based on a new appreciation of the public, a new paradigm centered on human rights, and altruistic philosophy, politics, and ethics that undergird the changes in international public health on at least three fronts: redefining its theoretical foundation, improving world health, and renewing the international public health system, all of which is the byproduct of a new form of governance. A new world health system, directed by new global public institutions, would aim to make public health a global public right and face a variety of staggering challenges, such as working on public policy management on a global scale, renewing and democratizing the current global governing structure, and conquering the limits and weaknesses witnessed by international health.

  20. Influenza Vaccination Coverage Among People With High-Risk Conditions in the U.S.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Halloran, Alissa C; Lu, Peng-Jun; Williams, Walter W; Bridges, Carolyn B; Singleton, James A

    2016-01-01

    During annual influenza epidemics, rates of serious illness and death are higher among those who have medical conditions, such as pulmonary disease, diabetes, or heart disease, which place them at increased risk of influenza complications. Annual influenza vaccination was recommended for people with high-risk conditions as early as 1960. Data from the 2012-2013 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System were analyzed in 2014 to estimate national and state-specific influenza vaccination coverage among people aged 18-64 years with high-risk conditions. Prevalence ratios adjusted for demographic and access-to-care characteristics were calculated using logistic regression and predictive marginal models. Unadjusted influenza vaccination coverage was 45.4% among adults aged 18-64 years with at least one high-risk condition, compared with 32.9% among those with no high-risk conditions (pvaccination coverage was 53.2%. Coverage was 43.9% for those with pulmonary diseases, 52.7% for those with diabetes, 48.1% for those with heart disease, and 45.0% for those with cancer. Individuals with high-risk conditions were more likely to receive an influenza vaccine than those with no high-risk conditions, even after controlling for demographic and access-to-care characteristics. Despite ongoing influenza vaccination recommendations for adults with high-risk conditions, coverage was below the Healthy People 2020 target; only about half were vaccinated. Primary care providers and subspecialists should ensure routine assessment of vaccination status every fall and winter and recommend vaccination to people with high-risk conditions. Copyright © 2016 American Journal of Preventive Medicine. All rights reserved.

  1. Influenza: prevention, prophylaxis and treatment | Jones | South ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Influenza spreads rapidly to affect 515% of the global population on an annual basis. It is estimated that influenza causes between three and five million cases of severe illness and between a quarter and half a million deaths every year. In South Africa during the period from 1997 to 2001, influenza and pneumonia ...

  2. Secondary Bacterial Infections Associated with Influenza Pandemics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Denise E. Morris

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Lower and upper respiratory infections are the fourth highest cause of global mortality (Lozano et al., 2012. Epidemic and pandemic outbreaks of respiratory infection are a major medical concern, often causing considerable disease and a high death toll, typically over a relatively short period of time. Influenza is a major cause of epidemic and pandemic infection. Bacterial co/secondary infection further increases morbidity and mortality of influenza infection, with Streptococcus pneumoniae, Haemophilus influenzae, and Staphylococcus aureus reported as the most common causes. With increased antibiotic resistance and vaccine evasion it is important to monitor the epidemiology of pathogens in circulation to inform clinical treatment and development, particularly in the setting of an influenza epidemic/pandemic.

  3. Effectiveness of seasonal influenza vaccination in community-dwelling elderly people: an individual participant data meta-analysis of test-negative design case-control studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Darvishian, Maryam; van den Heuvel, Edwin R; Bissielo, Ange; Castilla, Jesus; Cohen, Cheryl; Englund, Helene; Gefenaite, Giedre; Huang, Wan-Ting; la Bastide-van Gemert, Sacha; Martinez-Baz, Iván; McAnerney, Johanna M; Ntshoe, Genevie M; Suzuki, Motoi; Turner, Nikki; Hak, Eelko

    2017-03-01

    aggregate data meta-analysis. Furthermore, six additional datasets were provided by data collaborators, which resulted in individual participant data for a total of 5210 participants. A total of 4975 patients had the required data for analysis. Of these, 3146 (63%) were controls and 1829 (37%) were cases. Influenza vaccination was significantly effective during epidemic seasons irrespective of vaccine match status (matched adjusted vaccine effectiveness 44·38%, 95% CI 22·63-60·01; mismatched adjusted vaccine effectiveness 20·00%, 95% CI 3·46-33·68; analyses in the imputed dataset). Seasonal influenza vaccination did not show significant effectiveness during non-epidemic seasons. We found substantial variation in vaccine effectiveness across virus types and subtypes, with the highest estimate for A H1N1 pdm09 (53·19%, 10·25-75·58) and the lowest estimate for B virus types (-1·52%, -39·58 to 26·16). Although we observed no significant differences between subgroups in each category (hemisphere, age, and health status), influenza vaccination showed a protective effect among elderly people with cardiovascular disease, lung disease, or aged 75 years and younger. Influenza vaccination is moderately effective against laboratory-confirmed influenza in elderly people during epidemic seasons. More research is needed to investigate factors affecting vaccine protection (eg, brand-specific or type-specific vaccine effectiveness and repeated annual vaccination) in elderly people. University Medical Center Groningen. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Mismatch between the 1997/1998 influenza vaccine and the major epidemic A (H3N2) virus strain as the cause of an inadequate vaccine-induced antibody response to this strain in the elderly.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J.C. de Jong (Jan); W.E.Ph. Beyer (Walter); A.M. Palache (Abraham); G.F. Rimmelzwaan (Guus); A.D.M.E. Osterhaus (Albert)

    2000-01-01

    textabstractThe success of influenza vaccination depends largely on the antigenic match between the influenza vaccine strains and the virus strains actually circulating during the season. In the past, this match has proved to be satisfactory in most seasons. In the 1997/1998 season, however,

  5. Knowledge of and Attitudes to Influenza Vaccination among Community Pharmacists in Catalonia (Spain). 2013-2014 Season: A Cross Sectional Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toledo, Diana; Soldevila, Núria; Guayta-Escolies, Rafel; Lozano, Pau; Rius, Pilar; Gascón, Pilar; Domínguez, Angela

    2017-07-11

    Annual recommendations on influenza seasonal vaccination include community pharmacists, who have low vaccination coverage. The aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between influenza vaccination in community pharmacists and their knowledge of and attitudes to vaccination. An online cross-sectional survey of community pharmacists in Catalonia, Spain, was conducted between September and November 2014. Sociodemographic, professional and clinical variables, the history of influenza vaccination and knowledge of and attitudes to influenza and seasonal influenza vaccination were collected. The survey response rate was 7.33% (506 out of 6906); responses from 463 community pharmacists were included in the final analyses. Analyses were performed using multivariable logistic regression models and stepwise backward selection method for variable selection. The influenza vaccination coverage in season 2013-2014 was 25.1%. There was an association between vaccination and correct knowledge of the virus responsible for epidemics (adjusted Odds Ratio (aOR) = 1.74; 95% CI 1.03-2.95), recommending vaccination in the postpartum (aOR = 3.63; 95% CI 2.01-6.55) and concern about infecting their clients (aOR = 5.27; 95% CI 1.88-14.76). In conclusion, community pharmacists have a very low influenza vaccination coverage, are not very willing to recommend vaccination to all their customers but they are concerned about infecting their clients.

  6. Epidemics: Lessons from the past and current patterns of response

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, Paul

    2008-09-01

    Hippocrates gave the term 'epidemic' its medical meaning. From antiquity to modern times, the meaning of the word epidemic has continued to evolve. Over the centuries, researchers have reached an understanding of the varying aspects of epidemics and have tried to combat them. The role played by travel, trade, and human exchanges in the propagation of epidemic infectious diseases has been understood. In 1948, the World Health Organization was created and given the task of advancing ways of combating epidemics. An early warning system to combat epidemics has been implemented by the WHO. The Global Outbreak Alert and Response Network (GOARN) is collaboration between existing institutions and networks that pool their human and technical resources to fight outbreaks. Avian influenza constitutes currently the most deadly epidemic threat, with fears that it could rapidly reach pandemic proportions and put several thousands of lives in jeopardy. Thanks to the WHO's support, most of the world's countries have mobilised and implemented an 'Action Plan for Pandemic Influenza'. As a result, most outbreaks of the H5N1 avian flu virus have so far been speedily contained. Cases of dengue virus introduction in countries possessing every circumstance required for its epidemic spread provide another example pertinent to the prevention of epidemics caused by vector-borne pathogens.

  7. Parameter Scaling for Epidemic Size in a Spatial Epidemic Model with Mobile Individuals.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chiyori T Urabe

    Full Text Available In recent years, serious infectious diseases tend to transcend national borders and widely spread in a global scale. The incidence and prevalence of epidemics are highly influenced not only by pathogen-dependent disease characteristics such as the force of infection, the latent period, and the infectious period, but also by human mobility and contact patterns. However, the effect of heterogeneous mobility of individuals on epidemic outcomes is not fully understood. Here, we aim to elucidate how spatial mobility of individuals contributes to the final epidemic size in a spatial susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR model with mobile individuals in a square lattice. After illustrating the interplay between the mobility parameters and the other parameters on the spatial epidemic spreading, we propose an index as a function of system parameters, which largely governs the final epidemic size. The main contribution of this study is to show that the proposed index is useful for estimating how parameter scaling affects the final epidemic size. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed index, we show that there is a positive correlation between the proposed index computed with the real data of human airline travels and the actual number of positive incident cases of influenza B in the entire world, implying that the growing incidence of influenza B is attributed to increased human mobility.

  8. Technical guidelines for the application of seasonal influenza vaccine in China (2014–2015)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Luzhao; Yang, Peng; Zhang, Tao; Yang, Juan; Fu, Chuanxi; Qin, Ying; Zhang, Yi; Ma, Chunna; Liu, Zhaoqiu; Wang, Quanyi; Zhao, Genming; Yu, Hongjie

    2015-01-01

    Influenza, caused by the influenza virus, is a respiratory infectious disease that can severely affect human health. Influenza viruses undergo frequent antigenic changes, thus could spread quickly. Influenza causes seasonal epidemics and outbreaks in public gatherings such as schools, kindergartens, and nursing homes. Certain populations are at risk for severe illness from influenza, including pregnant women, young children, the elderly, and people in any ages with certain chronic diseases. PMID:26042462

  9. Influenza: Still more important than Zika virus in 2016-2017.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mossad, Sherif Beniameen

    2016-11-01

    Influenza kills and hospitalizes many people every year. Although the 2015-2016 influenza season was relatively mild, we should remain vigilant in our efforts to reduce the impact of future epidemics or pandemics by implementing universal influenza vaccination and early initiation of antiviral therapy for suspected cases. We don't expect influenza vaccine to prevent all cases of influenza, since immune response varies depending on age, underlying diseases, and immunosuppression. Copyright © 2016 Cleveland Clinic.

  10. Repeated seasonal influenza vaccination among elderly in Europe: Effects on laboratory confirmed hospitalised influenza.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rondy, Marc; Launay, Odile; Castilla, Jesus; Costanzo, Simona; Puig-Barberà, Joan; Gefenaite, Giedre; Larrauri, Amparo; Rizzo, Caterina; Pitigoi, Daniela; Syrjänen, Ritva K; Machado, Ausenda; Kurečić Filipović, Sanja; Krisztina Horváth, Judit; Paradowska-Stankiewicz, Iwona; Marbus, Sierk; Moren, Alain

    2017-01-01

    In Europe, annual influenza vaccination is recommended to elderly. From 2011 to 2014 and in 2015-16, we conducted a multicentre test negative case control study in hospitals of 11 European countries to measure influenza vaccine effectiveness (IVE) against laboratory confirmed hospitalised influenza

  11. On the epidemiology of influenza

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Scragg Robert

    2008-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract The epidemiology of influenza swarms with incongruities, incongruities exhaustively detailed by the late British epidemiologist, Edgar Hope-Simpson. He was the first to propose a parsimonious theory explaining why influenza is, as Gregg said, "seemingly unmindful of traditional infectious disease behavioral patterns." Recent discoveries indicate vitamin D upregulates the endogenous antibiotics of innate immunity and suggest that the incongruities explored by Hope-Simpson may be secondary to the epidemiology of vitamin D deficiency. We identify – and attempt to explain – nine influenza conundrums: (1 Why is influenza both seasonal and ubiquitous and where is the virus between epidemics? (2 Why are the epidemics so explosive? (3 Why do they end so abruptly? (4 What explains the frequent coincidental timing of epidemics in countries of similar latitude? (5 Why is the serial interval obscure? (6 Why is the secondary attack rate so low? (7 Why did epidemics in previous ages spread so rapidly, despite the lack of modern transport? (8 Why does experimental inoculation of seronegative humans fail to cause illness in all the volunteers? (9 Why has influenza mortality of the aged not declined as their vaccination rates increased? We review recent discoveries about vitamin D's effects on innate immunity, human studies attempting sick-to-well transmission, naturalistic reports of human transmission, studies of serial interval, secondary attack rates, and relevant animal studies. We hypothesize that two factors explain the nine conundrums: vitamin D's seasonal and population effects on innate immunity, and the presence of a subpopulation of "good infectors." If true, our revision of Edgar Hope-Simpson's theory has profound implications for the prevention of influenza.

  12. Influenza virus infection among pediatric patients reporting diarrhea and influenza-like illness

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Uyeki Timothy M

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Influenza is a major cause of morbidity and hospitalization among children. While less often reported in adults, gastrointestinal symptoms have been associated with influenza in children, including abdominal pain, nausea, vomiting, and diarrhea. Methods From September 2005 and April 2008, pediatric patients in Indonesia presenting with concurrent diarrhea and influenza-like illness were enrolled in a study to determine the frequency of influenza virus infection in young patients presenting with symptoms less commonly associated with an upper respiratory tract infection (URTI. Stool specimens and upper respiratory swabs were assayed for the presence of influenza virus. Results Seasonal influenza A or influenza B viral RNA was detected in 85 (11.6% upper respiratory specimens and 21 (2.9% of stool specimens. Viable influenza B virus was isolated from the stool specimen of one case. During the time of this study, human infections with highly pathogenic avian influenza A (H5N1 virus were common in the survey area. However, among 733 enrolled subjects, none had evidence of H5N1 virus infection. Conclusions The detection of influenza viral RNA and viable influenza virus from stool suggests that influenza virus may be localized in the gastrointestinal tract of children, may be associated with pediatric diarrhea and may serve as a potential mode of transmission during seasonal and epidemic influenza outbreaks.

  13. [Influenza--always present among us].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turkulov, V; Madle-Samardzija, N

    2000-01-01

    Influenza virus infects about 10 million persons worldwide each year. Two important characteristics of influenza are its epidemic outbreak and high mortality rate, mostly caused by complications. Influenza virus is characterised by a great antigenic variability. Major modifications, called antigenic shifts or type changes, occur approximately three times per century and result in worldwide epidemics--pandemics. Minor modifications, called antigenic drifts or strain changes demand new vaccine compositions each year. Pandemics and epidemics caused by influenza virus, such as the "Spanish Flu", the "Asian Flu", the "Hong Kong Flu" killed many people worldwide. Presently the epidemic, caused by influenza A virus Sydney/97 H3N2 is spreading over USA and most of Europe, including Yugoslavia. EPIDEMIOLOGY AND CLINICAL FEATURES: In humans influenza virus spreads over respiratory secretions, thrown out by coughing and sneezing. Children and older people, as well as immunosuppressed patients are prone to the infection. The onset of illness is sudden, with fever usually over 39 degrees C. Headache and myalgia are prominent. Other signs include fatigue, sore throat, nasal congestion and red eyes. Cough is a very important symptom, which starts as dry and progresses to wet with thick mucous. Pneumonia is the main cause of death among the high-risk patients. Bronchitis and tracheobronchitis also occur. Croup is a serious complication, often encountered in small children. Cardiac complications, especially myocarditis, are described as influenza complications. Neurological complications include encephalitis, encephalopathy, myelitis, Guillain-Barré syndrome, Reye syndrome, etc. Neurotropism of the influenza virus is under investigation. DIFFERENTIAL DIAGNOSIS AND DIAGNOSIS: Differential diagnosis of influenza includes all diseases which exhibit by increased body temperature, cough, headache, sore throat, myalgia and lethargy. Among serious diseases, pneumonia, sepsis, and

  14. Intranasally administered Endocine™ formulated 2009 pandemic influenza H1N1 vaccine induces broad specific antibody responses and confers protection in ferrets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    A.-K. Maltais (Anna-Karin); K.J. Stittelaar (Koert); E.J.B. Veldhuis Kroeze (Edwin); G. van Amerongen (Geert); M.L. Dijkshoorn (Marcel); G.P. Krestin (Gabriel); J. Hinkula (Jorma); H. Arwidsson (Hans); A. Lindberg (Alf); A.D.M.E. Osterhaus (Albert)

    2014-01-01

    textabstractInfluenza is a contagious respiratory disease caused by an influenza virus. Due to continuous antigenic drift of seasonal influenza viruses, influenza vaccines need to be adjusted before every influenza season. This allows annual vaccination with multivalent seasonal influenza vaccines,

  15. Influenza pandemic planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cox, Nancy J; Tamblyn, Susan E; Tam, Theresa

    2003-05-01

    Periodically, novel influenza viruses emerge and spread rapidly through susceptible populations, resulting in worldwide epidemics or pandemics. Three pandemics occurred in the 20th century. The first and most devastating of these, the "Spanish Flu" (A/H1N1) pandemic of 1918-1919, is estimated to have resulted in 20-50 million or more deaths worldwide, with unusually high mortality among young adults [C.W. Potter, Chronicle of influenza pandemics, in: K.G. Nicholson, R.G. Webster, A.J. Hay (Eds.), Textbook of Influenza, Blackwell Science, Oxford, 1998, p. 3]. Mortality associated with the 1957 "Asian Flu" (A/H2N2) and the 1968 "Hong Kong Flu" (A/H3N2) pandemics was less severe, with the highest excess mortality in the elderly and persons with chronic diseases [J. Infect. Dis. 178 (1998) 53]. However, considerable morbidity, social disruption and economic loss occurred during both of these pandemics [J. Infect. Dis. 176 (Suppl. 1) (1997) S4]. It is reasonable to assume that future influenza pandemics will occur, given historical evidence and current understanding of the biology, ecology, and epidemiology of influenza. Influenza viruses are impossible to eradicate, as there is a large reservoir of all subtypes of influenza A viruses in wild aquatic birds. In agricultural-based communities with high human population density such as are found in China, conditions exist for the emergence and spread of pandemic viruses. It is also impossible to predict when the next pandemic will occur. Moreover, the severity of illness is also unpredictable, so contingency plans must be put in place now during the inter-pandemic period. These plans must be flexible enough to respond to different levels of disease.

  16. Spatial distribution and risk factors of influenza in Jiangsu province, China, based on geographical information system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jia-Cheng Zhang

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Influenza poses a constant, heavy burden on society. Recent research has focused on ecological factors associated with influenza incidence and has also studied influenza with respect to its geographic spread at different scales. This research explores the temporal and spatial parameters of influenza and identifies factors influencing its transmission. A spatial autocorrelation analysis, a spatial-temporal cluster analysis and a spatial regression analysis of influenza rates, carried out in Jiangsu province from 2004 to 2011, found that influenza rates to be spatially dependent in 2004, 2005, 2006 and 2008. South-western districts consistently revealed hotspots of high-incidence influenza. The regression analysis indicates that railways, rivers and lakes are important predictive environmental variables for influenza risk. A better understanding of the epidemic pattern and ecological factors associated with pandemic influenza should benefit public health officials with respect to prevention and controlling measures during future epidemics.

  17. Seasonal influenza vaccine policies, recommendations and use in the World Health Organization’s Western Pacific Region Original Research

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Members of the Western Pacific Region Global Influenza Surveillance and Response System

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Objective: Vaccination is the most effective way to prevent seasonal influenza and its severe outcomes. The objective of our study was to synthesize information on seasonal influenza vaccination policies, recommendations and practices in place in 2011 for all countries and areas in the Western Pacific Region of the World Health Organization (WHO. Methods: Data were collected via a questionnaire on seasonal influenza vaccination policies, recommendations and practices in place in 2011. Results: Thirty-six of the 37 countries and areas (97% responded to the survey. Eighteen (50% reported having established seasonal influenza vaccination policies, an additional seven (19% reported having recommendations for risk groups for seasonal influenza vaccination only and 11 (30% reported having no policies or recommendations in place. Of the 25 countries and areas with policies or recommendations, health-care workers and the elderly were most frequently recommended for vaccination; 24 (96% countries and areas recommended vaccinating these groups, followed by pregnant women (19 [76%], people with chronic illness (18 [72%] and children (15 [60%]. Twenty-six (72% countries and areas reported having seasonal influenza vaccines available through public funding, private market purchase or both. Most of these countries and areas purchased only enough vaccine to cover 25% or less of their populations. Discussion: In light of the new WHO position paper on influenza vaccines published in 2012 and the increasing availability of country-specific data, countries and areas should consider reviewing or developing their seasonal influenza vaccination policies to reduce morbidity and mortality associated with annual epidemics and as part of ongoing efforts for pandemic preparedness.

  18. La influenza, un problema vigente de salud pública Influenza, an existing public health problem

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juan García-García

    2006-06-01

    particular, during winter months and having an elevated effect on public health worldwide. The disease has high morbidity rates for people of all ages and particularly high mortality rates for children, adults over 60 years old, patients with chronic illnesses and pregnant women. Prevention control strategies include vaccination using inactivated, subunit or genetically modified virus vaccines. Influenza in humans is caused by two subtypes of influenza virus A and one of influenza virus B. The influenza virus A that affects humans mutates easily, thereby often causing new antigenic variants of each subtype to emerge, requiring the inclusion of such variants in annual vaccines in order to assure proper immunization of the population. The influenza pandemic refers to the introduction and later worldwide spread of a new influenza virus in the human population, which occurs sporadically. Due to the lack of immunity in humans against the new virus, serious epidemics can be provoked resulting in high morbidity and mortality rates. Historically, influenza pandemics are a result of the transmission of the virus from birds to humans, or the transfer of such genes to seasonal influenza. Wild waterfowl -both migratory and shore birds- carry a large diversity of influenza virus subtypes, which are eventually transmitted to domestic birds. Some of those viruses cross the species barrier and infect mammals, including humans. The adaptation process of the avian virus to mammal hosts requires time. Therefore, the presentation of these cases can take several years. Since December 2003, in several Southeast Asian countries a large proportion of domestic birds have been affected by an avian influenza epidemic (subtype H5N1. By Februrary 2006, the epidemic had already affected countries in Europe and Africa, having a significant economic impact on commercial poultry due to the more than 180 million birds that were sacrificed. Some strains of this avian influenza virus have directly, although

  19. Influenza vaccination

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Østerhus, Sven Frederick

    2015-01-01

    The Cochrane Library was systematically searched for meta-analyses regarding influenza vaccination of various populations, both healthy and sick. An effect in reducing the number of cases of influenza, influenza-like illness or complications to influenza was found in some studies, but, generally......, the quality of the studies was low, and several studies lacked hard clinical endpoints. Data on adverse effects were scarce. More randomised controlled trials investigating the effects of influenza vaccination are warranted....

  20. Influenza Vaccines : What Do We Want and How Can We Get It?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Geeraedts, Felix; Huckriede, Anke; Pulendran, B; Katsikis, PD; Schoenberger, SP

    2011-01-01

    Influenza vaccines have been in use for more than 60 years and have proven to be efficacious in protecting from influenza infections during epidemics and the recent H1N1 pandemic. The development of influenza vaccines has so far been largely based on empirical grounds, which leaves room for vaccine

  1. Influenza virus activity in Papua New Guinea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sungu, M; Sanders, R

    1991-09-01

    Influenza viruses remain a major cause of respiratory disease in both developed and developing countries. A great deal of information concerning the structure, pathology and modes of transmission of these viruses has been accumulated, but no means of successfully combating them have, as yet, been devised. The most appropriate strategy for limiting the effects of influenza is to monitor the emergence and spread of new strains carefully and warn the public and at-risk groups of impending epidemics. In Papua New Guinea, as in most other developing countries, the major at-risk groups are the very young and the elderly. In the past, influenza epidemics were rare and affected the whole community, but with modern development and increased mobility the transmission dynamics of influenza have changed. The only influenza surveillance centre in Papua New Guinea is at the Papua New Guinea Institute of Medical Research in Goroka, and the surveillance activities of this centre are limited to the immediately surrounding areas. There is a need to establish a national influenza surveillance network, to provide nation-wide monitoring of influenza activity, and to provide a central repository of current information on influenza infections in the country.

  2. Influenza Virus and Glycemic Variability in Diabetes: A Killer Combination?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katina D. Hulme

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Following the 2009 H1N1 influenza virus pandemic, numerous studies identified the striking link between diabetes mellitus and influenza disease severity. Typically, influenza virus is a self-limiting infection but in individuals who have a pre-existing chronic illness, such as diabetes mellitus, severe influenza can develop. Here, we discuss the latest clinical and experimental evidence for the role of diabetes in predisposing the host to severe influenza. We explore the possible mechanisms that underlie this synergy and highlight the, as yet, unexplored role that blood glucose oscillations may play in disease development. Diabetes is one of the world’s fastest growing chronic diseases and influenza virus represents a constant and pervasive threat to human health. It is therefore imperative that we understand how diabetes increases influenza severity in order to mitigate the burden of future influenza epidemics and pandemics.

  3. Scenario-ontwikkeling zorgvraag bij een influenza-pandemie

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Genugten MLL van; Heijnen MLA; Jager JC; CZO; CIE

    2001-01-01

    Another influenza pandemic, following the 1918, 1957 and the 1968 pandemic, is likely if not inevitable. In a 'regular' influenza-epidemic 5-20% of the population is to become clinically ill; during a pandemic this percentage can mount to 30 or even 50%. A pandemic could cause substantial social

  4. Information Spreading in Epidemics and in Communication Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Uekermann, Florian Philipp

    The PhD thesis revolves mainly around models of disease spreading and human behavior. We present models for different epidemic patterns of infectious diseases. This includes investigations of the trajectory of the 2014 Ebola outbreak in West-Africa, influenza evolution and the seasonal dynamics...

  5. Adjuvants and immunization strategies to induce influenza virus hemagglutinin stalk antibodies.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter H Goff

    Full Text Available The global population remains vulnerable in the face of the next pandemic influenza virus outbreak, and reformulated vaccinations are administered annually to manage seasonal epidemics. Therefore, development of a new generation of vaccines is needed to generate broad and persistent immunity to influenza viruses. Here, we describe three adjuvants that enhance the induction of stalk-directed antibodies against heterologous and heterosubtypic influenza viruses when administered with chimeric HA proteins. Addavax, an MF59-like nanoemulsion, poly(I:C, and an RNA hairpin derived from Sendai virus (SeV Cantell were efficacious intramuscularly. The SeV RNA and poly(I:C also proved to be effective respiratory mucosal adjuvants. Although the quantity and quality of antibodies induced by the adjuvants varied, immunized mice demonstrated comparable levels of protection against challenge with influenza A viruses on the basis of HA stalk reactivity. Finally, we present that intranasally, but not intramuscularly, administered chimeric HA proteins induce mucosal IgA antibodies directed at the HA stalk.

  6. Transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H7 virus

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bos, M.E.H.

    2009-01-01

    Knowledge of the transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus still has gaps, complicating epidemic control. A model was developed to back-calculate the day HPAI virus was introduced into a flock, based on within-flock mortality data of the Dutch HPAI H7N7 epidemic (2003). The

  7. Modeling Epidemic Network Failures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ruepp, Sarah Renée; Fagertun, Anna Manolova

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents the implementation of a failure propagation model for transport networks when multiple failures occur resulting in an epidemic. We model the Susceptible Infected Disabled (SID) epidemic model and validate it by comparing it to analytical solutions. Furthermore, we evaluate...... to evaluate multiple epidemic scenarios in various network types....

  8. Modernising epidemic science: enabling patient-centred research during epidemics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rojek, Amanda M; Horby, Peter W

    2016-12-19

    Emerging and epidemic infectious disease outbreaks are a significant public health problem and global health security threat. As an outbreak begins, epidemiological investigations and traditional public health responses are generally mounted very quickly. However, patient-centred research is usually not prioritised when planning and enacting the response. Instead, the clinical research response occurs subsequent to and separate from the public health response, and is inadequate for evidence-based decision-making at the bedside or in the offices of public health policymakers. The deficiencies of the clinical research response to severe acute respiratory syndrome, pandemic influenza, Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus and Ebola virus demonstrate that current research models do not adequately inform and improve the quality of clinical care or public health response. Three suggestions for improvements are made. First, integrate the data and sample collection needs for clinical and public health decision-making within a unified framework, combined with a risk-based, rather than a discipline-based, approach to ethical review and consent. Second, develop clinical study methods and tools that are specifically designed to meet the epidemiological and contextual challenges of emerging and epidemic infectious diseases. Third, invest in investigator-led clinical research networks that are primed and incentivised to respond to outbreak infections, and which can call on the support and resources of a central centre of excellence. It is crucial that the field of epidemic science matures to place patients at the heart of the response. This can only be achieved when patient-centred research is integrated in the outbreak response from day one and practical steps are taken to reduce the barriers to the generation of reliable and useful evidence.

  9. Polyphenolic glycosides isolated from Pogostemon cablin (Blanco) Benth. as novel influenza neuraminidase inhibitors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Fang; Cao, Wei; Deng, Chao; Wu, Zhaoquan; Zeng, Guangyao; Zhou, Yingjun

    2016-01-01

    Influenza is historically an ancient disease that causes annual epidemics and, at irregular intervals, pandemics. At present, the first-line drugs (oseltamivir and zanamivir) don't seem to be optimistic due to the spontaneously arising and spreading of oseltamivir resistance among influenza virus. Pogostemon cablin (Blanco) Benth. (P. cablin) is an important traditional Chinese medicine herb that has been widely used for treatment on common cold, nausea and fever. In our previous study, we have identified an extract derived from P. cablin as a novel selective neuraminidase (NA) inhibitor. A series of polyphenolic compounds were isolated from P. cablin for their potential ability to inhibit neuraminidase of influenza A virus. Two new octaketides (1, 2), together with other twenty compounds were isolated from P. cablin. These compounds showed better inhibitory activity against NA. The significant potent compounds of this series were compounds 2 (IC50 = 3.87 ± 0.19 μ mol/ml), 11, 12, 14, 15, 19 and 20 (IC50 was in 2.12 to 3.87 μ mol/ml), which were about fourfold to doubled less potent than zanamivir and could be used to design novel influenza NA inhibitors, especially compound 2, that exhibit increased activity based on these compounds. With the help of molecular docking, we had a preliminary understanding of the mechanism of the two new compounds (1-2)' NA inhibitory activity. Fractions 6 and polyphenolic compounds isolated from fractions 6 showed higher NA inhibition than that of the initial plant exacts. The findings of this study indicate that polyphenolic compounds and fractions 6 derived from P. cablin are potential NA inhibitors. This work is one of the evidence that P. cablin has better inhibitory activity against influenza, which not only enriches the compound library of P. cablin, but also facilitates further development and promises its therapeutic potential for the rising challenge of influenza diseases.

  10. [Ethical principles of management and planning during influenza pandemic].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kubar', O I; Asatrian, A Zh

    2012-01-01

    The article is dedicated to an actual problem of ethical component inclusion into the system of management and planning of epidemic control measures during threat emergence and in the course of influenza pandemic (epidemic) progress. Data regarding development of international ethical guidelines during influenza including WHO recommendations are presented and analysis of normative documents in Russian Federation is given. A necessity of comprehension and accounting of ethical values in pandemic preparedness is shown, main directions of action and responsibility are revealed. Key ethical positions of planning and implementation of measures during influenza pandemic are outlined, compliance with those determines the level of public support and thus provides the effectiveness of the implemented measures.

  11. Viral vector-based influenza vaccines

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Vries, Rory D.; Rimmelzwaan, Guus F.

    2016-01-01

    ABSTRACT Antigenic drift of seasonal influenza viruses and the occasional introduction of influenza viruses of novel subtypes into the human population complicate the timely production of effective vaccines that antigenically match the virus strains that cause epidemic or pandemic outbreaks. The development of game-changing vaccines that induce broadly protective immunity against a wide variety of influenza viruses is an unmet need, in which recombinant viral vectors may provide. Use of viral vectors allows the delivery of any influenza virus antigen, or derivative thereof, to the immune system, resulting in the optimal induction of virus-specific B- and T-cell responses against this antigen of choice. This systematic review discusses results obtained with vectored influenza virus vaccines and advantages and disadvantages of the currently available viral vectors. PMID:27455345

  12. Viral vector-based influenza vaccines.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Vries, Rory D; Rimmelzwaan, Guus F

    2016-11-01

    Antigenic drift of seasonal influenza viruses and the occasional introduction of influenza viruses of novel subtypes into the human population complicate the timely production of effective vaccines that antigenically match the virus strains that cause epidemic or pandemic outbreaks. The development of game-changing vaccines that induce broadly protective immunity against a wide variety of influenza viruses is an unmet need, in which recombinant viral vectors may provide. Use of viral vectors allows the delivery of any influenza virus antigen, or derivative thereof, to the immune system, resulting in the optimal induction of virus-specific B- and T-cell responses against this antigen of choice. This systematic review discusses results obtained with vectored influenza virus vaccines and advantages and disadvantages of the currently available viral vectors.

  13. DEVELOPMENT OF TEST KIT FOR DETECTION OF PANDEMIC STRAIN INFLUENZA VIRUS A (H1N1 2009 BY REAL TIME POLYMERASE CHAIN REACTION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. V. Stepaniuk

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Influenza viruses A play an important role in the structure of the incidence of people with acute respiratory viral infection, which make up 90% from all other infectious diseases. According to the World Health Organization, only severe flu worldwide suffer annually 3.5 million, of which 45–60% are children. An economic loss from seasonal flu epidemic is in average about 85% of economic losses from infectious diseases in general. The experience of fighting the flu, accumulated over the years, has shown that to develop and deliver effective preventive measures necessary to build a system of permanent monitoring for influenza virus circulation, based on use of laboratory methods for accurate and rapid dentification and characterization of circulating strains of influenza virus A. Among the methods of laboratory diagnosis of influenza, the most effective is a method of polymerase chain reaction. Data on the evelopment of diagnostic test kits in the format of two-stage multiplex RTPCR-analysis for detection and genotyping of pandemic influenza virus A (H1N12009 are given. The results of laboratory and experimental research of «DIA Influenza H1N1» test system showed that it is effective and specific for detection of California pandemic influenza virus A (H1N12009 strains and can be used to diagnose disease caused by this strain of virus. Clinical trial of the course of the State registration by Ministry of Health of Ukraine have shown sensitivity and specificity of «DIA Influenza H1N1» test systems up to 100%.

  14. Meningitis - H. influenzae

    Science.gov (United States)

    H. influenzae meningitis; H. flu meningitis; Haemophilus influenzae type b meningitis ... H. influenzae meningitis is caused by Haemophilus influenzae type b bacteria. This illness is not the same as the flu ( influenza ), ...

  15. Influenza and Memory T Cells: How to Awake the Force

    OpenAIRE

    Spitaels, Jan; Roose, Kenny; Saelens, Xavier

    2016-01-01

    Annual influenza vaccination is an effective way to prevent human influenza. Current vaccines are mainly focused on eliciting a strain-matched humoral immune response, requiring yearly updates, and do not provide protection for all vaccinated individuals. The past few years, the importance of cellular immunity, and especially memory T cells, in long-lived protection against influenza virus has become clear. To overcome the shortcomings of current influenza vaccines, eliciting both humoral and...

  16. Epidemiologic study of influenza infection in Okinawa, Japan, from 2001 to 2007: changing patterns of seasonality and prevalence of amantadine-resistant influenza A virus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suzuki, Yasushi; Taira, Katsuya; Saito, Reiko; Nidaira, Minoru; Okano, Shou; Zaraket, Hassan; Suzuki, Hiroshi

    2009-03-01

    To clarify seasonal influenza patterns and the prevalence of amantadine-resistant influenza A viruses in Okinawa, located at the southern extremity of Japan in a subtropical climate, we conducted a laboratory-based study of influenza virus infections from 2001 to 2007. The annual outbreaks tended to show two peaks in Okinawa, in summer and winter, although the main islands of Japan, located in a temperate climate area, showed only winter influenza activity. Epidemic types and subtypes in Okinawa mostly matched those on the main islands of Japan in winter and those in Taiwan in summer. Rates of amantadine resistance dramatically increased, from 7.3% in the November 2002-to-March 2003 season to 90.0% in summer 2005, and a similarly high rate of resistance continued for the rest of the study period. Phylogenetic analysis of the hemagglutinin gene of A/H3N2 isolates collected from 2002 to 2007 revealed a monophyletic lineage that was divided into four period groups. Each group included amantadine-sensitive and -resistant viruses within independent clusters. In the November 2005-to-March 2006 season, all of the amantadine-resistant viruses were clustered in clade N, with dual (position 193 and 225) amino acid mutations in their HA1 subunits. In 2005, clade N amantadine-resistant viruses existed in Okinawa several months before the circulation of this clade on the main islands of Japan. In conclusion, surveillance in Okinawa to monitor influenza virus circulation is important for elucidating the dynamics of virus transmission in a border area between temperate and subtropical areas, as Okinawa is one of the best sentinel points in Japan.

  17. Epidemiologic Study of Influenza Infection in Okinawa, Japan, from 2001 to 2007: Changing Patterns of Seasonality and Prevalence of Amantadine-Resistant Influenza A Virus▿

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suzuki, Yasushi; Taira, Katsuya; Saito, Reiko; Nidaira, Minoru; Okano, Shou; Zaraket, Hassan; Suzuki, Hiroshi

    2009-01-01

    To clarify seasonal influenza patterns and the prevalence of amantadine-resistant influenza A viruses in Okinawa, located at the southern extremity of Japan in a subtropical climate, we conducted a laboratory-based study of influenza virus infections from 2001 to 2007. The annual outbreaks tended to show two peaks in Okinawa, in summer and winter, although the main islands of Japan, located in a temperate climate area, showed only winter influenza activity. Epidemic types and subtypes in Okinawa mostly matched those on the main islands of Japan in winter and those in Taiwan in summer. Rates of amantadine resistance dramatically increased, from 7.3% in the November 2002-to-March 2003 season to 90.0% in summer 2005, and a similarly high rate of resistance continued for the rest of the study period. Phylogenetic analysis of the hemagglutinin gene of A/H3N2 isolates collected from 2002 to 2007 revealed a monophyletic lineage that was divided into four period groups. Each group included amantadine-sensitive and -resistant viruses within independent clusters. In the November 2005-to-March 2006 season, all of the amantadine-resistant viruses were clustered in clade N, with dual (position 193 and 225) amino acid mutations in their HA1 subunits. In 2005, clade N amantadine-resistant viruses existed in Okinawa several months before the circulation of this clade on the main islands of Japan. In conclusion, surveillance in Okinawa to monitor influenza virus circulation is important for elucidating the dynamics of virus transmission in a border area between temperate and subtropical areas, as Okinawa is one of the best sentinel points in Japan. PMID:19158265

  18. NNDSS - Table II. Giardiasis to Haemophilus influenza

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — NNDSS - Table II. Giardiasis to Haemophilus influenza - 2014. In this Table, all conditions with a 5-year average annual national total of more than or equals 1,000...

  19. Vaccination and antigenic drift in influenza.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boni, Maciej F

    2008-07-18

    The relationship between influenza antigenic drift and vaccination lies at the intersection of evolutionary biology and public health, and it must be viewed and analyzed in both contexts simultaneously. In this paper, 1 review what is known about the effects of antigenic drift on vaccination and the effects of vaccination on antigenic drift, and I suggest some simple ways to detect the presence of antigenic drift in seasonal influenza data. If antigenic drift occurs on the time scale of a single influenza season, it may be associated with the presence of herd immunity at the beginning of the season and may indicate a need to monitor for vaccine updates at the end of the season. The relationship between antigenic drift and vaccination must also be viewed in the context of the global circulation of influenza strains and the seeding of local and regional epidemics. In the data sets I consider--from New Zealand, New York, and France--antigenic drift can be statistically detected during some seasons, and seeding of epidemics appears to be endogenous sometimes and exogenous at other times. Improved detection of short-term antigenic drift and epidemic seeding would significantly benefit influenza monitoring efforts and vaccine selection.

  20. Estimating Influenza Outbreaks Using Both Search Engine Query Data and Social Media Data in South Korea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woo, Hyekyung; Cho, Youngtae; Shim, Eunyoung; Lee, Jong-Koo; Lee, Chang-Gun; Kim, Seong Hwan

    2016-07-04

    As suggested as early as in 2006, logs of queries submitted to search engines seeking information could be a source for detection of emerging influenza epidemics if changes in the volume of search queries are monitored (infodemiology). However, selecting queries that are most likely to be associated with influenza epidemics is a particular challenge when it comes to generating better predictions. In this study, we describe a methodological extension for detecting influenza outbreaks using search query data; we provide a new approach for query selection through the exploration of contextual information gleaned from social media data. Additionally, we evaluate whether it is possible to use these queries for monitoring and predicting influenza epidemics in South Korea. Our study was based on freely available weekly influenza incidence data and query data originating from the search engine on the Korean website Daum between April 3, 2011 and April 5, 2014. To select queries related to influenza epidemics, several approaches were applied: (1) exploring influenza-related words in social media data, (2) identifying the chief concerns related to influenza, and (3) using Web query recommendations. Optimal feature selection by least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (Lasso) and support vector machine for regression (SVR) were used to construct a model predicting influenza epidemics. In total, 146 queries related to influenza were generated through our initial query selection approach. A considerable proportion of optimal features for final models were derived from queries with reference to the social media data. The SVR model performed well: the prediction values were highly correlated with the recent observed influenza-like illness (r=.956; Psearch queries to enhance influenza surveillance in South Korea. In addition, an approach for query selection using social media data seems ideal for supporting influenza surveillance based on search query data.

  1. [Epidemics and disease during the Revolution Period in Mexico].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanfilippo-Borrás, José

    2010-01-01

    The health condition in Mexico was bad around de beginning of the revolutionary period. The movement of troops led the development of epidemics like yellow fever, typhus, smallpox, and influenza that were enhance with natural disasters and hunger in whole country, from cost to cost and in the north big cities like Monterrey, Guadalajara and Saltillo. Doctor Liceaga conducted a well planned campaign against yellow fever eradicating water stagnant deposits in order to combat the vector transmission, the Aedes aegypti, mosquito with satisfactory results. The first smallpox epidemic in the XX Century in Mexico was in 1916. The Mexican physicians used the smallpox vaccine against this epidemic. An American physician named Howard Taylor Ricketts arrived to Mexico for studying the typhus transmission. Accidentally he had been infected and finally, he died from typhus. Definitively, the epidemics predominate along de revolutionary period in Mexico.

  2. Influenza Vaccination Strategies: Comparing Inactivated and Live Attenuated Influenza Vaccines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sridhar, Saranya; Brokstad, Karl A.; Cox, Rebecca J.

    2015-01-01

    Influenza is a major respiratory pathogen causing annual outbreaks and occasional pandemics. Influenza vaccination is the major method of prophylaxis. Currently annual influenza vaccination is recommended for groups at high risk of complications from influenza infection such as pregnant women, young children, people with underlying disease and the elderly, along with occupational groups such a healthcare workers and farm workers. There are two main types of vaccines available: the parenteral inactivated influenza vaccine and the intranasal live attenuated influenza vaccine. The inactivated vaccines are licensed from 6 months of age and have been used for more than 50 years with a good safety profile. Inactivated vaccines are standardized according to the presence of the viral major surface glycoprotein hemagglutinin and protection is mediated by the induction of vaccine strain specific antibody responses. In contrast, the live attenuated vaccines are licensed in Europe for children from 2–17 years of age and provide a multifaceted immune response with local and systemic antibody and T cell responses but with no clear correlate of protection. Here we discuss the immunological immune responses elicited by the two vaccines and discuss future work to better define correlates of protection. PMID:26343192

  3. Detecting nonlinearity and chaos in epidemic data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ellner, S.; Gallant, A.R. [North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC (United States). Dept. of Statistics; Theiler, J. [Santa Fe Inst., NM (United States)]|[Los Alamos National Lab., NM (United States)

    1993-08-01

    Historical data on recurrent epidemics have been central to the debate about the prevalence of chaos in biological population dynamics. Schaffer and Kot who first recognized that the abundance and accuracy of disease incidence data opened the door to applying a range of methods for detecting chaos that had been devised in the early 1980`s. Using attractor reconstruction, estimates of dynamical invariants, and comparisons between data and simulation of SEIR models, the ``case for chaos in childhood epidemics`` was made through a series of influential papers beginning in the mid 1980`s. The proposition that the precise timing and magnitude of epidemic outbreaks are deterministic but chaotic is appealing, since it raises the hope of finding determinism and simplicity beneath the apparently stochastic and complicated surface of the data. The initial enthusiasm for methods of detecting chaos in data has been followed by critical re-evaluations of their limitations. Early hopes of a ``one size fits all`` algorithm to diagnose chaos vs. noise in any data set have given way to a recognition that a variety of methods must be used, and interpretation of results must take into account the limitations of each method and the imperfections of the data. Our goals here are to outline some newer methods for detecting nonlinearity and chaos that have a solid statistical basis and are suited to epidemic data, and to begin a re-evaluation of the claims for nonlinear dynamics and chaos in epidemics using these newer methods. We also identify features of epidemic data that create problems for the older, better known methods of detecting chaos. When we ask ``are epidemics nonlinear?``, we are not questioning the existence of global nonlinearities in epidemic dynamics, such as nonlinear transmission rates. Our question is whether the data`s deviations from an annual cyclic trend (which would reflect global nonlinearities) are described by a linear, noise-driven stochastic process.

  4. Plant-produced recombinant influenza A vaccines based on the M2e peptide.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mardanova, Eugenia S; Ravin, Nikolai V

    2018-03-09

    Influenza is a widely distributed infection that almost annually causes seasonal epidemics. The current egg-based platforms for influenza vaccine production are facing a number of challenges and are failing to satisfy the global demand in the case of pandemics due to the long production time. Recombinant vaccines are an alternative that can be quickly produced in high quantities in standard expression systems. Plants may become a promising biofactory for the large-scale production of recombinant proteins due to low cost, scalability, and safety. Plant-based expression systems have been used to produce recombinant vaccines against influenza based on two targets; the major surface antigen hemagglutinin and the transmembrane protein M2. Different forms of recombinant hemagglutinin were successfully expressed in plants, and some plant-produced vaccines based on hemagglutinin were successfully tested in clinical trials. However, these vaccines remain strain specific, while the highly conserved extracellular domain of M2 protein (M2e) could be used for the development of a universal influenza vaccine. In this review, the state of the art in developing plant-produced influenza vaccines based on M2e is presented and placed in perspective. A number of strategies to produce M2e in an immunogenic form in plants have been reported, including its presentation on the surface of plant viruses or virus-like particles formed by capsid proteins, linkage to bacterial flagellin, and targeting to protein bodies. Some M2e-based vaccine candidates were produced at high levels (up to 1 mg/g of fresh plant tissue) and were shown to be capable of stimulating broad-range protective immunity. Copyright© Bentham Science Publishers; For any queries, please email at epub@benthamscience.org.

  5. Seroprevalence survey of H9N2 avian influenza virus in backyard chickens around the Caspian Sea in Iran

    OpenAIRE

    Hadipour,MM

    2010-01-01

    Since 1998, an epidemic of avian influenza occurred in the Iranian poultry industry. The identified agent presented low pathogenicity, and was subtyped as an H9N2 avian influenza virus. Backyard chickens can play an important role in the epidemiology of H9N2 avian influenza virus infection. Close contact of backyard chickens with migratory birds, especially with aquatic birds, as well as neighboring poultry farms, may pose the risk of transmitting avian influenza virus, but little is known ab...

  6. Virus-Vectored Influenza Virus Vaccines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tripp, Ralph A.; Tompkins, S. Mark

    2014-01-01

    Despite the availability of an inactivated vaccine that has been licensed for >50 years, the influenza virus continues to cause morbidity and mortality worldwide. Constant evolution of circulating influenza virus strains and the emergence of new strains diminishes the effectiveness of annual vaccines that rely on a match with circulating influenza strains. Thus, there is a continued need for new, efficacious vaccines conferring cross-clade protection to avoid the need for biannual reformulation of seasonal influenza vaccines. Recombinant virus-vectored vaccines are an appealing alternative to classical inactivated vaccines because virus vectors enable native expression of influenza antigens, even from virulent influenza viruses, while expressed in the context of the vector that can improve immunogenicity. In addition, a vectored vaccine often enables delivery of the vaccine to sites of inductive immunity such as the respiratory tract enabling protection from influenza virus infection. Moreover, the ability to readily manipulate virus vectors to produce novel influenza vaccines may provide the quickest path toward a universal vaccine protecting against all influenza viruses. This review will discuss experimental virus-vectored vaccines for use in humans, comparing them to licensed vaccines and the hurdles faced for licensure of these next-generation influenza virus vaccines. PMID:25105278

  7. Universal influenza virus vaccines and therapeutic antibodies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nachbagauer, R; Krammer, F

    2017-04-01

    Current influenza virus vaccines are effective when well matched to the circulating strains. Unfortunately, antigenic drift and the high diversity of potential emerging zoonotic and pandemic viruses make it difficult to select the right strains for vaccine production. This problem causes vaccine mismatches, which lead to sharp drops in vaccine effectiveness and long response times to manufacture matched vaccines in case of novel pandemic viruses. To provide an overview of universal influenza virus vaccines and therapeutic antibodies in preclinical and clinical development. PubMed and clinicaltrials.gov were used as sources for this review. Universal influenza virus vaccines that target conserved regions of the influenza virus including the haemagglutinin stalk domain, the ectodomain of the M2 ion channel or the internal matrix and nucleoproteins are in late preclinical and clinical development. These vaccines could confer broad protection against all influenza A and B viruses including drift variants and thereby abolish the need for annual re-formulation and re-administration of influenza virus vaccines. In addition, these novel vaccines would enhance preparedness against emerging influenza virus pandemics. Finally, novel therapeutic antibodies against the same conserved targets are in clinical development and could become valuable tools in the fight against influenza virus infection. Both universal influenza virus vaccines and therapeutic antibodies are potential future options for the control of human influenza infections. Copyright © 2017 European Society of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. How to develop a program to increase influenza vaccine uptake among workers in health care settings?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Looijmans-van den Akker, I.; Hulscher, M.E.J.L.; Verheij, T.J.; Riphagen-Dalhuisen, J.; Delden, J.J.M. van; Hak, E.

    2011-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Apart from direct protection and reduced productivity loss during epidemics, the main reason to immunize healthcare workers (HCWs) against influenza is to provide indirect protection of frail patients through reduced transmission in healthcare settings. Because the vaccine uptake among

  9. How to develop a program to increase influenza vaccine uptake among workers in health care settings?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Looijmans-van den Akker, I.; Hulscher, M.E.; Verheij, T.J.M.; Riphagen-Dalhuisen, J.; van Delden, J.J.M.; Hak, E.

    2011-01-01

    Background: Apart from direct protection and reduced productivity loss during epidemics, the main reason to immunize healthcare workers (HCWs) against influenza is to provide indirect protection of frail patients through reduced transmission in healthcare settings. Because the vaccine uptake among

  10. Temporal distribution and genetic variants in influenza A(H1N1pdm09 virus circulating in Mexico, seasons 2012 and 2013.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jose Reyes Canche-Pech

    Full Text Available The 2012 and 2013 annual influenza epidemics in Mexico were characterized by presenting different seasonal patterns. In 2012 the A(H1N1pdm09 virus caused a high incidence of influenza infections after a two-year period of low circulation; whereas the 2013 epidemic presented circulation of the A(H1N1pdm09 virus throughout the year. We have characterized the molecular composition of the Hemagglutinin (HA and Neuraminidase (NA genes of the A(H1N1pdm09 virus from both epidemic seasons, emphasizing the genetic characteristics of viruses isolated from Yucatan in Southern Mexico. The molecular analysis of viruses from the 2012 revealed that all viruses from Mexico were predominantly grouped in clade 7. Strikingly, the molecular characterization of viruses from 2013 revealed that viruses circulating in Yucatan were genetically different to viruses from other regions of Mexico. In fact, we identified the occurrence of two genetic variants containing relevant mutations at both the HA and NA surface antigens. There was a difference on the temporal circulation of each genetic variant, viruses containing the mutations HA-A141T / NA-N341S were detected in May, June and July; whereas viruses containing the mutations HA-S162I / NA-L206S circulated in August and September. We discuss the significance of these novel genetic changes.

  11. Temporal distribution and genetic variants in influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus circulating in Mexico, seasons 2012 and 2013.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Canche-Pech, Jose Reyes; Conde-Ferraez, Laura; Puerto-Solis, Marylin; Gonzalez-Losa, Refugio; Granja-Pérez, Pilar; Villanueva-Jorge, Salha; Chan-Gasca, Maria; Gómez-Carballo, Jesus; López-Ochoa, Luisa; Jiménez-Delgadillo, Bertha; Rodríguez-Sánchez, Iram; Ramírez-Prado, Jorge; Ayora-Talavera, Guadalupe

    2017-01-01

    The 2012 and 2013 annual influenza epidemics in Mexico were characterized by presenting different seasonal patterns. In 2012 the A(H1N1)pdm09 virus caused a high incidence of influenza infections after a two-year period of low circulation; whereas the 2013 epidemic presented circulation of the A(H1N1)pdm09 virus throughout the year. We have characterized the molecular composition of the Hemagglutinin (HA) and Neuraminidase (NA) genes of the A(H1N1)pdm09 virus from both epidemic seasons, emphasizing the genetic characteristics of viruses isolated from Yucatan in Southern Mexico. The molecular analysis of viruses from the 2012 revealed that all viruses from Mexico were predominantly grouped in clade 7. Strikingly, the molecular characterization of viruses from 2013 revealed that viruses circulating in Yucatan were genetically different to viruses from other regions of Mexico. In fact, we identified the occurrence of two genetic variants containing relevant mutations at both the HA and NA surface antigens. There was a difference on the temporal circulation of each genetic variant, viruses containing the mutations HA-A141T / NA-N341S were detected in May, June and July; whereas viruses containing the mutations HA-S162I / NA-L206S circulated in August and September. We discuss the significance of these novel genetic changes.

  12. Impact of quadrivalent influenza vaccine on public health and influenza-related costs in Australia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aurélien Jamotte

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Annual trivalent influenza vaccines (TIV containing three influenza strains (A/H1N1, A/H3N2, and one B have been recommended for the prevention of influenza. However, worldwide co-circulation of two distinct B lineages (Victoria and Yamagata and difficulties in predicting which lineage will predominate each season have led to the development of quadrivalent influenza vaccines (QIV, which include both B lineages. Our analysis evaluates the public health benefit and associated influenza-related costs avoided which would have been obtained by using QIV rather than TIV in Australia over the period 2002–2012. Methods A static model stratified by age group was used, focusing on people at increased risk of influenza as defined by the Australian vaccination recommendations. B-lineage cross-protection was accounted for. We calculated the potential impact of QIV compared with TIV over the seasons 2002–2012 (2009 pandemic year excluded using Australian data on influenza circulation, vaccine coverage, hospitalisation and mortality rates as well as unit costs, and international data on vaccine effectiveness, influenza attack rate, GP consultation rate and working days lost. Third-party payer and societal influenza-related costs were estimated in 2014 Australian dollars. Sensitivity analyses were conducted. Results Using QIV instead of TIV over the period 2002–2012 would have prevented an estimated 68,271 additional influenza cases, 47,537 GP consultations, 3,522 hospitalisations and 683 deaths in the population at risk of influenza. These results translate into influenza-related societal costs avoided of $46.5 million. The estimated impact of QIV was higher for young children and the elderly. The overall impact of QIV depended mainly on vaccine effectiveness and the influenza attack rate attributable to the mismatched B lineage. Conclusion The broader protection offered by QIV would have reduced the number of influenza infections

  13. Uptake of the Influenza Vaccination in Pregnancy

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Crosby, DA

    2016-09-01

    Influenza is caused by a highly infectious RNA virus, which usually occurs in a seasonal pattern with epidemics in the winter months. The objective of this study was to determine the uptake of the influenza vaccine in a pregnant population and ascertain the reasons why some women did not receive it. A prospective cohort study was conducted over a two-week period in January 2016 in the National Maternity Hospital Dublin, a tertiary referral maternity hospital delivering over 9000 infants per year. There were 504 women studied over the 2-week period. Overall, 197(39.1%) women received the vaccine at a mean gestational age 20.9 weeks (SD 7.0). Given the increased rates of influenza in the community and the associated implications for mother and infant, it is important that pregnant women are educated regarding the risks of influenza in pregnancy and encourage this cohort to be vaccinated.

  14. Effect of gargling with tea and ingredients of tea on the prevention of influenza infection: a meta-analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kazuki Ide

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Influenza viruses can spread easily from person to person, and annual influenza epidemics are serious public health issues worldwide. Non-pharmaceutical public health interventions could potentially be effective for combatting influenza epidemics, but combined interventions and/or interventions with greater effectiveness are needed. Experimental studies have reported that tea and its ingredients (especially catechins have antiviral activities. Although several clinical studies have investigated the use of tea or its ingredients to prevent influenza infections, the effect of gargling these substances has remained uncertain. Methods We conducted a meta-analysis of randomized controlled studies and prospective cohort studies to assess the effect of gargling with tea and its ingredients on the prevention of influenza infection. The published literature was searched using the Cochrane Library, PubMed/MEDLINE (1966 to September 2015, Web of Science (1981 to September 2015, and Ichu-shi Web (1983 to September 2015. The extracted studies were read by two reviewers independently, and their overall scientific quality was evaluated. Studies meeting our inclusion criteria were pooled using the Mantel-Haenszel method in a fixed effects model and were also analyzed in a random effects model. The qualities of the model fits were assessed using the Akaike information criterion (AIC and Bayesian information criterion (BIC. Results The literature search and review identified 5 studies that met the inclusion criteria for the meta-analysis (total number of participants, 1890; mean age range, 16–83 years. The participants who gargled with tea or its ingredients showed a lower risk of influenza infection than did participants who gargled with placebo/water or who did not gargle (fixed effects model, Mantel-Haenszel method: relative risk [RR] = 0.70, 95 % confidence interval [CI] = 0.54–0.89; random effects model: RR = 0.71, 95

  15. In Vitro Antiviral Effect of "Nanosilver" on Influenza Virus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P Mehrbod

    2009-08-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Influenza is a viral infectious disease with frequent seasonal epidemics causing world-wide economical and social effects. Due to antigenic shifts and drifts of influenza virus, long-lasting vaccine has not been developed so far. The current annual vaccines and effective antiviral drugs are not available sufficiently. Therefore in order to prevent spread of infectious agents including viruses, antiseptics are considered by world health authorities. Small particles of silver have a long history as general antiseptic and disinfectant. Silver does not induce resistance in microorganisms and this ability in Nano-size is stronger. Materials and methods: The aim of this study was to determine antiviral effects of Nanosilver against influenza virus. TCID50 (50% Tissue Culture Infectious Dose of the virus as well as CC50 (50% Cytotoxic Concentration of Nanosilver was obtained by MTT (3- [4, 5-dimethylthiazol-2-yl]-2, 5-diphenyl-tetrazolium bromide, Sigma method. This compound was non-toxic to MDCK (Madin-Darbey Canin Kidney cells at concentration up to 1 µg/ml.  Effective minimal cytotoxic concentration and 100 TCID50 of the virus were added to the confluent cells.  Inhibitory effects of Nanosilver on the virus and its cytotoxicity were assessed at different temperatures using Hemagglutination (HA assay, RT-PCR (Reverse Transcriptase-Polymerase Chain Reaction, and DIF (Direct Immunofluorescent. RT-PCR and free band densitometry software were used to compare the volume of the PCR product bands on the gel. Results and Discussion:  In this study it was found that Nanosilver has destructive effect on the virus membrane glycoprotein knobs as well as the cells.

  16. Sentinel surveillance for influenza in Senegal, 1996-2009.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niang, Mbayame Ndiaye; Dosseh, Annick; Ndiaye, Kader; Sagna, Monique; Gregory, Victoria; Goudiaby, Deborah; Hay, Alan; Diop, Ousmane M

    2012-12-15

    Data on influenza in tropical and resource-limited countries are scarce. In this study we present results from 14 years of influenza surveillance in Senegal, one of the few tropical countries in Africa from which longitudinal data are available. From 1996 to 2009, we collected respiratory specimens from outpatients presenting with influenza-like illness at 13 facilities in order to investigate the epidemiology of seasonal influenza and the characteristics of the circulating influenza viruses. Specimens were tested for influenza using viral isolation and/or reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR). From 1996 to 2009, specimens were obtained from 9176 patients; 1233 (13%) were influenza-positive by virus isolation and/or RT-PCR. Among positive samples, 958 (77%) were influenza A, 268 (22%) influenza B, and 7 (1%) influenza type C; of influenza A viruses, 619 (65%) were A(H3) and 339 (35%) A(H1), of which 13 (1%) were identified as H1N2. The proportion positive was similar for children 55 years (9%). Although influenza A(H1), A(H3), and B all circulated during most years, influenza A(H3N2) predominated during 9 of the 14 years. Influenza activity consistently peaked during the rainy season (July-September). Phylogenetic analysis showed that viruses circulating in Senegal were similar to contemporary viruses circulating elsewhere in the world. Our data confirm that influenza is prevalent in Senegal, occurs in seasonal epidemics, and contributes to the burden of respiratory diseases in all age groups.

  17. Epidemic Intelligence. Langmuir and the Birth of Disease Surveillance

    OpenAIRE

    Lyle Fearnley

    2010-01-01

    In the wake of the SARS and influenza epidemics of the past decade, one public health solution has become a refrain: surveillance systems for detection of disease outbreaks. This paper is an effort to understand how disease surveillance for outbreak detection gained such paramount rationality in contemporary public health. The epidemiologist Alexander Langmuir is well known as the creator of modern disease surveillance. But less well known is how he imagined disease surveillance as one part o...

  18. Genomewide analysis of reassortment and evolution of human influenza A(H3N2) viruses circulating between 1968 and 2011

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    K.B. Westgeest (Kim); C.A. Russell (Colin); X. Lin (Xudong); M.I. Spronken (Monique); T.M. Bestebroer (Theo); J. Bahl (Justin); R. van Beek (Ruud); E. Skepner (Eugene); R.A. Halpin (Rebecca); J.C. de Jong (Jan); G.F. Rimmelzwaan (Guus); A.D.M.E. Osterhaus (Albert); D.J. Smith (Derek James); C.E. Wentworth (Charles); R.A.M. Fouchier (Ron); M.T. de Graaf (Marieke)

    2014-01-01

    textabstractInfluenza A(H3N2) viruses became widespread in humans during the 1968 H3N2 virus pandemic and have been a major cause of influenza epidemics ever since. These viruses evolve continuously by reassortment and genomic evolution. Antigenic drift is the cause for the need to update influenza

  19. Clinical prediction rules combining signs, symptoms and epidemiological context to distinguish influenza from influenza-like illnesses in primary care: a cross sectional study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Van Royen Paul

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background During an influenza epidemic prompt diagnosis of influenza is important. This diagnosis however is still essentially based on the interpretation of symptoms and signs by general practitioners. No single symptom is specific enough to be useful in differentiating influenza from other respiratory infections. Our objective is to formulate prediction rules for the diagnosis of influenza with the best diagnostic performance, combining symptoms, signs and context among patients with influenza-like illness. Methods During five consecutive winter periods (2002-2007 138 sentinel general practitioners sampled (naso- and oropharyngeal swabs 4597 patients with an influenza-like illness (ILI and registered their symptoms and signs, general characteristics and contextual information. The samples were analysed by a DirectigenFlu-A&B and RT-PCR tests. 4584 records were useful for further analysis. Starting from the most relevant variables in a Generalized Estimating Equations (GEE model, we calculated the area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve (ROC AUC, sensitivity, specificity and likelihood ratios for positive (LR+ and negative test results (LR- of single and combined signs, symptoms and context taking into account pre-test and post-test odds. Results In total 52.6% (2409/4584 of the samples were positive for influenza virus: 64% (2066/3212 during and 25% (343/1372 pre/post an influenza epidemic. During and pre/post an influenza epidemic the LR+ of 'previous flu-like contacts', 'coughing', 'expectoration on the first day of illness' and 'body temperature above 37.8°C' is 3.35 (95%CI 2.67-4.03 and 1.34 (95%CI 0.97-1.72, respectively. During and pre/post an influenza epidemic the LR- of 'coughing' and 'a body temperature above 37.8°C' is 0.34 (95%CI 0.27-0.41 and 0.07 (95%CI 0.05-0.08, respectively. Conclusions Ruling out influenza using clinical and contextual information is easier than ruling it in. Outside an influenza

  20. Evaluation of the Specificity and Sensitivity of a Potential Rapid Influenza Screening System

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-01

    of influenza virus species during the 2009 swine origin influenza A H1N1 virus epidemic in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. J Clin Microbiol 2009;47:2779–86...Luminex xTAG respiratory virus panel is indicative of infection with novel A/ H1N1 (swine-like) influenza virus . J Clin Microbiol 2009;47:2347–8... influenza test, and clinical case definition to viral culture and reverse transcription-PCR for rapid diagnosis of influenza virus infection. J Clin

  1. Understanding the Opioid Epidemic

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Search Form Controls Cancel Submit Search The CDC Opioid Overdose Note: Javascript is disabled or is not ... message, please visit this page: About CDC.gov . Opioid Overdose Opioid Basics Understanding the Epidemic Commonly Used ...

  2. Repeated influenza vaccination for preventing severe and fatal influenza infection in older adults: a multicentre case-control study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Casado, Itziar; Domínguez, Ángela; Toledo, Diana; Chamorro, Judith; Astray, Jenaro; Egurrola, Mikel; Fernández-Sierra, María Amelia; Martín, Vicente; Morales-Suárez-Varela, María; Godoy, Pere; Castilla, Jesús

    2018-01-08

    The effectiveness of repeated vaccination for influenza to prevent severe cases remains unclear. We evaluated the effectiveness of influenza vaccination on preventing admissions to hospital for influenza and reducing disease severity. We conducted a case-control study in 20 hospitals in Spain during the 2013/14 and 2014/15 influenza seasons. Community-dwelling adults aged 65 years or older who were admitted to hospital for laboratory-confirmed influenza were matched with inpatient controls by sex, age, hospital and admission date. The effectiveness of vaccination in the current and 3 previous seasons in preventing influenza was estimated for inpatients with nonsevere influenza and for those with severe influenza who were admitted to intensive care units (ICUs) or who died. We enrolled 130 inpatients with severe and 598 with nonsevere influenza who were matched to 333 and 1493 controls, respectively. Compared with patients who were unvaccinated in the current and 3 previous seasons, adjusted effectiveness of influenza vaccination in the current and any previous season was 31% (95% confidence interval [CI] 13%-46%) in preventing admission to hospital for nonsevere influenza, 74% (95% CI 42%-88%) in preventing admissions to ICU and 70% (95% CI 34%-87%) in preventing death. Vaccination in the current season only had no significant effect on cases of severe influenza. Among inpatients with influenza, vaccination in the current and any previous season reduced the risk of severe outcomes (adjusted odds ratio 0.45, 95% CI 0.26-0.76). Among older adults, repeated vaccination for influenza was twice as effective in preventing severe influenza compared with nonsevere influenza in patients who were admitted to hospital, which is attributable to the combination of the number of admissions to hospital for influenza that were prevented and reduced disease severity. These results reinforce recommendations for annual vaccination for influenza in older adults. © 2018 Joule Inc. or

  3. Increasing herd immunity with influenza revaccination.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mooring, E Q; Bansal, S

    2016-04-01

    Seasonal influenza is a significant public health concern globally. While influenza vaccines are the single most effective intervention to reduce influenza morbidity and mortality, there is considerable debate surrounding the merits and consequences of repeated seasonal vaccination. Here, we describe a two-season influenza epidemic contact network model and use it to demonstrate that increasing the level of continuity in vaccination across seasons reduces the burden on public health. We show that revaccination reduces the influenza attack rate not only because it reduces the overall number of susceptible individuals, but also because it better protects highly connected individuals, who would otherwise make a disproportionately large contribution to influenza transmission. We also demonstrate that our results hold on an empirical contact network, in the presence of assortativity in vaccination status, and are robust for a range of vaccine coverage and efficacy levels. Our work contributes a population-level perspective to debates about the merits of repeated influenza vaccination and advocates for public health policy to incorporate individual vaccine histories.

  4. Serosurvey of antibody to highly pathogenic avian influenza (H5N1 ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Avian influenza is a disease of economic and public health importance that has been described in most domestic animals and humans. Highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 epidemic in Nigeria was observed in agro-ecological zones where pigs and chickens are raised in shared environment with chances of ...

  5. The transmission characteristics of A/Chicken/Pennsylvania/83 influenza virus, an experimental approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Goot, van der J.A.; Koch, G.; Jong, de M.C.M.; Boven, van R.M.

    2003-01-01

    High-pathogenicity avian influenza (HPAI) viruses emerged from low-pathogenicity avian influenza (LPAI) viruses in Pennsylvania (1983-84), Mexico (1994-95), and Italy (1999-2000). Here we focus on the question of why the HPAI virus supersedes the LPAI virus, once it has appeared during the epidemic.

  6. Outbreak of avian influenza H7N3 on a turkey farm in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Velkers, F.C.; Bouma, A.; Matthijs, M.G.R.; Koch, G.; Westendorp, S.T.; Stegeman, J.A.

    2006-01-01

    This case report describes the course of an outbreak of avian influenza on a Dutch turkey farm. When clinical signs were observed their cause remained unclear. However, serum samples taken for the monitoring campaign launched during the epidemic of highly pathogenic avian influenza in 2003, showed

  7. Surveillance of low pathogenic avian influenza in layer chickens: risk factors, transmission and early detection

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gonzales Rojas, J.L.

    2012-01-01

    Low pathogenic avian influenza virus (LPAIv) of H5 and H7 subtypes are able to mutate to highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIv), which are lethal for most poultry species, can cause large epidemics and are a serious threat to public health. Thus, circulation of these LPAIv in poultry is

  8. Division of labor between dendritic cell subsets in the lung during influenza virus infection

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    C.H. Geurts van Kessel (Corine)

    2009-01-01

    textabstractInfluenza disease, often referred to as “flu”, is caused by the influenza viruses. These viruses are most only responsible for epidemics of variable severity almost every winter but occasionally cause major pandemic outbreaks. The term “influenza” has been derived from the Italian

  9. On Temporal Patterns and Circulation of Influenza Virus Strains in Taiwan, 2008-2014: Implications of 2009 pH1N1 Pandemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hsieh, Ying-Hen; Huang, Hsiang-Min; Lan, Yu-Ching

    2016-01-01

    .89 (95% CI: 0.49, 1.28), in fact highest among all the waves detected in this study. Moreover, when AH3 or A(H1N1)pdm09 exhibit high incidence, reported cases of subtype B decreases and vice versa. Further modeling analysis indicated that during the study period, Taiwan nearly experienced at least one wave of influenza epidemic of some strain every summer except in 2012. Estimates of R for seasonal influenza are consistent with that of temperate and tropical-subtropical regions, while estimate of R for A(H1N1)pdm09 is comparatively less than countries in Europe and North America, but similar to that of tropical-subtropical regions. This offers indication of regional differences in transmissibility of influenza virus that exists only for pandemic influenza. Despite obvious limitations in the data used, this study, designed to qualitatively compare the temporal patterns and transmissibility of the waves of different strains, illustrates how influenza subtyping data can be utilized to explore the mechanism for various influenza strains to compete or to circulate, to possibly provide predictors of future trends in the evolution of influenza viruses of various subtypes, and perhaps more importantly, to be of use to future annual seasonal influenza vaccine design.

  10. Outbreak of avian influenza H7N3 on a turkey farm in the Netherlands

    OpenAIRE

    Velkers, F.C.; Bouma, A.; Matthijs, M.G.R.; Koch, G.; Westendorp, S.T.; Stegeman, J.A.

    2006-01-01

    This case report describes the course of an outbreak of avian influenza on a Dutch turkey farm. When clinical signs were observed their cause remained unclear. However, serum samples taken for the monitoring campaign launched during the epidemic of highly pathogenic avian influenza in 2003, showed that all the remaining turkeys were seropositive against an H7 strain of avian influenza virus, and the virus was subsequently isolated from stored carcases. The results of a reverse-transcriptase P...

  11. Chimeric Hemagglutinin Constructs Induce Broad Protection against Influenza B Virus Challenge in the Mouse Model

    OpenAIRE

    Ermler, Megan E.; Kirkpatrick, Ericka; Sun, Weina; Hai, Rong; Amanat, Fatima; Chromikova, Veronika; Palese, Peter; Krammer, Florian

    2017-01-01

    Seasonal influenza virus epidemics represent a significant public health burden. Approximately 25% of all influenza virus infections are caused by type B viruses, and these infections can be severe, especially in children. Current influenza virus vaccines are an effective prophylaxis against infection but are impacted by rapid antigenic drift, which can lead to mismatches between vaccine strains and circulating strains. Here, we describe a broadly protective vaccine candidate based on chimeri...

  12. Replication-Competent Influenza A and B Viruses Expressing a Fluorescent Dynamic Timer Protein for In Vitro and In Vivo Studies.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael Breen

    Full Text Available Influenza A and B viruses (IAV and IBV, respectively cause annual seasonal human respiratory disease epidemics. In addition, IAVs have been implicated in occasional pandemics with inordinate health and economic consequences. Studying influenza viruses in vitro or in vivo requires the use of laborious secondary methodologies to identify infected cells. To circumvent this requirement, replication-competent infectious influenza viruses expressing an easily traceable fluorescent reporter protein can be used. Timer is a fluorescent protein that undergoes a time-dependent color emission conversion from green to red. The rate of spectral change is independent of Timer protein concentration and can be used to chronologically measure the duration of its expression. Here, we describe the generation of replication-competent IAV and IBV where the viral non-structural protein 1 (NS1 was fused to the fluorescent dynamic Timer protein. Timer-expressing IAV and IBV displayed similar plaque phenotypes and growth kinetics to wild-type viruses in tissue culture. Within infected cells, Timer's spectral shift can be used to measure the rate and cell-to-cell spread of infection using fluorescent microscopy, plate readers, or flow cytometry. The progression of Timer-expressing IAV infection was also evaluated in a mouse model, demonstrating the feasibility to characterize IAV cell-to-cell infections in vivo. By providing the ability to chronologically track viral spread, Timer-expressing influenza viruses are an excellent option to evaluate the in vitro and in vivo dynamics of viral infection.

  13. Ultraviolet air disinfection for protection against influenza

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Riley, R.L.

    1977-01-01

    Three converging lines of evidence support the belief that it may be possible, under appropriate circumstances, to interrupt the airborne transmission of influenza by ultraviolet (UV) air disinfection. These lines of evidence are: (a) that influenza is airborne; (b) that UV irradiation of the upper air of a room can provide safe and effective disinfection of air in the lower part of the room; and (c) that epidemic spread of airborne viral infections in humans can be prevented if the population under consideration remains in the UV-protected environment

  14. Demographic and spatiotemporal patterns of avian influenza infection at the continental scale, and in relation to annual life cycle of a migratory host

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nallar, Rodolfo; Papp, Zsuzsanna; Epp, Tasha; Leighton, Frederick A.; Swafford, Seth R.; DeLiberto, Thomas J.; Dusek, Robert J.; Ip, Hon S.; Hall, Jeffrey S.; Berhane, Yohannes; Gibbs, Samantha E.J.; Soos, Catherine

    2015-01-01

    Since the spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 in the eastern hemisphere, numerous surveillance programs and studies have been undertaken to detect the occurrence, distribution, or spread of avian influenza viruses (AIV) in wild bird populations worldwide. To identify demographic determinants and spatiotemporal patterns of AIV infection in long distance migratory waterfowl in North America, we fitted generalized linear models with binominal distribution to analyze results from 13,574 blue-winged teal (Anas discors, BWTE) sampled in 2007 to 2010 year round during AIV surveillance programs in Canada and the United States. Our analyses revealed that during late summer staging (July-August) and fall migration (September-October), hatch year (HY) birds were more likely to be infected than after hatch year (AHY) birds, however there was no difference between age categories for the remainder of the year (winter, spring migration, and breeding period), likely due to maturing immune systems and newly acquired immunity of HY birds. Probability of infection increased non-linearly with latitude, and was highest in late summer prior to fall migration when densities of birds and the proportion of susceptible HY birds in the population are highest. Birds in the Central and Mississippi flyways were more likely to be infected compared to those in the Atlantic flyway. Seasonal cycles and spatial variation of AIV infection were largely driven by the dynamics of AIV infection in HY birds, which had more prominent cycles and spatial variation in infection compared to AHY birds. Our results demonstrate demographic as well as seasonal, latitudinal and flyway trends across Canada and the US, while illustrating the importance of migratory host life cycle and age in driving cyclical patterns of prevalence.

  15. Seasonal Inactivated Influenza Virus Vaccines

    OpenAIRE

    Couch, Robert B.

    2008-01-01

    Inactivated influenza virus vaccines are the primary modality used for prevention of influenza. A system of annual identification of new strains causing illnesses, selections for vaccines, chick embryo growth, inactivation, processing, packaging, distribution and usage has been in place for decades. Current vaccines contain 15 µg of the HA of an A/H1N1, A/H3N2 and B strain and are given parenterally to induce serum anti-HA antibody for prevention of subsequent infection and illness from natur...

  16. Genotyping and detection of common avian and human origin-influenza viruses using a portable chemiluminescence imaging microarray.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yingjie; Liu, Qiqi; Wang, Dou; Chen, Suhong; Wang, Xiaobo; Wang, Shengqi

    2016-01-01

    Influenza viruses are divided into three types, A, B, and C. Human influenza A and B viruses can cause seasonal epidemics, but influenza C causes only a mild respiratory illness. Influenza A virus can infect various host species. In 2013, human-infectious avian influenza A (H7N9) was first reported in China. By the second week of 2014, there were 210 laboratory-confirmed human cases in the country, and the mortality rate eventually reached 22 %. Rapid and accurate diagnosis of influenza viruses is important for clinical management and epidemiology. In this assay, a cost-effective chemiluminescence (CL) detection oligonucleotide microarray was developed to genotype and detect avian influenza A (H7N9), avian influenza A (H5N1), 2009 influenza A (H1N1), seasonal influenza A (H1N1), and seasonal influenza A (H3N2). Influenza A viruses and influenza B viruses were also generally detected using this microarray. The results of detection of 40 cultivated influenza virus strains showed that the microarray was able to distinguish the subtypes of these influenza viruses very well. The microarray possessed similar or 10 fold higher limit of detection than the real-time RT-PCR method. Sixty-six clinical swab samples were detected using this microarray and verified with real time RT-PCR to evaluate the efficiency of this microarray for clinical testing. A reliable CL detection oligonucleotide microarray had been developed to genotype and detected these influenza viruses.

  17. Percepción de competencias en epidemiología en México y Colombia durante la epidemia de influenza A (H1N1) entre estudiantes de salud pública Perception of epidemiological competencies by public health students in Mexico and Colombia during the influenza A (H1N1) epidemic

    OpenAIRE

    Alvaro J Idrovo; Julián A Fernández-Niño; Ietza Bojórquez-Chapela; Myriam Ruiz-Rodríguez; Carlos A Agudelo; Oscar E Pacheco; Néstor Buitrago; Gustavo Nigenda

    2011-01-01

    OBJETIVO: Conocer la percepción que los estudiantes de salud pública en México y en Colombia tuvieron sobre el manejo de la epidemia de influenza A (H1N1), como una forma para indagar qué contenidos curriculares pueden ser mejorados en la formación en epidemiología. MÉTODOS: Encuesta durante la epidemia, entre junio y agosto de 2009, a estudiantes de posgrado. Se evaluaron las 30 competencias epidemiológicas del Council of State and Territorial Epidemiologists para "epidemiólogos intermedios"...

  18. Chemical Genomics Identifies the PERK-Mediated Unfolded Protein Stress Response as a Cellular Target for Influenza Virus Inhibition

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sara Landeras-Bueno

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Influenza A viruses generate annual epidemics and occasional pandemics of respiratory disease with important consequences for human health and the economy. Therefore, a large effort has been devoted to the development of new anti-influenza virus drugs directed to viral targets, as well as to the identification of cellular targets amenable to anti-influenza virus therapy. Here we have addressed the identification of such potential cellular targets by screening collections of drugs approved for human use. We reasoned that screening with a green fluorescent protein-based recombinant replicon system would identify cellular targets involved in virus transcription/replication and/or gene expression and hence address an early stage of virus infection. By using such a strategy, we identified Montelukast (MK as an inhibitor of virus multiplication. MK inhibited virus gene expression but did not alter viral RNA synthesis in vitro or viral RNA accumulation in vivo. The low selectivity index of MK prevented its use as an antiviral, but it was sufficient to identify a new cellular pathway suitable for anti-influenza virus intervention. By deep sequencing of RNA isolated from mock- and virus-infected human cells, treated with MK or left untreated, we showed that it stimulates the PERK-mediated unfolded protein stress response. The phosphorylation of PERK was partly inhibited in virus-infected cells but stimulated in MK-treated cells. Accordingly, pharmacological inhibition of PERK phosphorylation led to increased viral gene expression, while inhibition of PERK phosphatase reduced viral protein synthesis. These results suggest the PERK-mediated unfolded protein response as a potential cellular target to modulate influenza virus infection.

  19. Influenza A and B virus intertypic reassortment through compatible viral packaging signals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, Steven F; Nogales, Aitor; Finch, Courtney; Tuffy, Kevin M; Domm, William; Perez, Daniel R; Topham, David J; Martínez-Sobrido, Luis

    2014-09-01

    Influenza A and B viruses cocirculate in humans and together cause disease and seasonal epidemics. These two types of influenza viruses are evolutionarily divergent, and exchange of genetic segments inside coinfected cells occurs frequently within types but never between influenza A and B viruses. Possible mechanisms inhibiting the intertypic reassortment of genetic segments could be due to incompatible protein functions of segment homologs, a lack of processing of heterotypic segments by influenza virus RNA-dependent RNA polymerase, an inhibitory effect of viral proteins on heterotypic virus function, or an inability to specifically incorporate heterotypic segments into budding virions. Here, we demonstrate that the full-length hemagglutinin (HA) of prototype influenza B viruses can complement the function of multiple influenza A viruses. We show that viral noncoding regions were sufficient to drive gene expression for either type A or B influenza virus with its cognate or heterotypic polymerase. The native influenza B virus HA segment could not be incorporated into influenza A virus virions. However, by adding the influenza A virus packaging signals to full-length influenza B virus glycoproteins, we rescued influenza A viruses that possessed HA, NA, or both HA and NA of influenza B virus. Furthermore, we show that, similar to single-cycle infectious influenza A virus, influenza B virus cannot incorporate heterotypic transgenes due to packaging signal incompatibilities. Altogether, these results demonstrate that the lack of influenza A and B virus reassortants can be attributed at least in part to incompatibilities in the virus-specific packaging signals required for effective segment incorporation into nascent virions. Reassortment of influenza A or B viruses provides an evolutionary strategy leading to unique genotypes, which can spawn influenza A viruses with pandemic potential. However, the mechanism preventing intertypic reassortment or gene exchange between

  20. Influenza A and B Virus Intertypic Reassortment through Compatible Viral Packaging Signals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, Steven F.; Nogales, Aitor; Finch, Courtney; Tuffy, Kevin M.; Domm, William; Perez, Daniel R.; Topham, David J.

    2014-01-01

    ABSTRACT Influenza A and B viruses cocirculate in humans and together cause disease and seasonal epidemics. These two types of influenza viruses are evolutionarily divergent, and exchange of genetic segments inside coinfected cells occurs frequently within types but never between influenza A and B viruses. Possible mechanisms inhibiting the intertypic reassortment of genetic segments could be due to incompatible protein functions of segment homologs, a lack of processing of heterotypic segments by influenza virus RNA-dependent RNA polymerase, an inhibitory effect of viral proteins on heterotypic virus function, or an inability to specifically incorporate heterotypic segments into budding virions. Here, we demonstrate that the full-length hemagglutinin (HA) of prototype influenza B viruses can complement the function of multiple influenza A viruses. We show that viral noncoding regions were sufficient to drive gene expression for either type A or B influenza virus with its cognate or heterotypic polymerase. The native influenza B virus HA segment could not be incorporated into influenza A virus virions. However, by adding the influenza A virus packaging signals to full-length influenza B virus glycoproteins, we rescued influenza A viruses that possessed HA, NA, or both HA and NA of influenza B virus. Furthermore, we show that, similar to single-cycle infectious influenza A virus, influenza B virus cannot incorporate heterotypic transgenes due to packaging signal incompatibilities. Altogether, these results demonstrate that the lack of influenza A and B virus reassortants can be attributed at least in part to incompatibilities in the virus-specific packaging signals required for effective segment incorporation into nascent virions. IMPORTANCE Reassortment of influenza A or B viruses provides an evolutionary strategy leading to unique genotypes, which can spawn influenza A viruses with pandemic potential. However, the mechanism preventing intertypic reassortment or

  1. Configuring the autism epidemic

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Seeberg, Jens; Christensen, Fie Lund Lindegaard

    2017-01-01

    is skewed in favour of boys, and girls with autism tend to be diagnosed much later than boys. Building and further developing the notion of ‘configuration’ of epidemics, this article explores the configuration of autism in Denmark, with a particular focus on the health system and social support to families...... with children diagnosed with autism, seen from a parental perspective. The article points to diagnostic dynamics that contribute to explaining why girls with autism are not diagnosed as easily as boys. We unfold these dynamics through the analysis of a case of a Danish family with autism.......Autism has been described as an epidemic, but this claim is contested and may point to an awareness epidemic, i.e. changes in the definition of what autism is and more attention being invested in diagnosis leading to a rise in registered cases. The sex ratio of children diagnosed with autism...

  2. The global transmission and control of influenza.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eben Kenah

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available New strains of influenza spread around the globe via the movement of infected individuals. The global dynamics of influenza are complicated by different patterns of influenza seasonality in different regions of the world. We have released an open-source stochastic mathematical model of the spread of influenza across 321 major, strategically located cities of the world. Influenza is transmitted between cities via infected airline passengers. Seasonality is simulated by increasing the transmissibility in each city at the times of the year when influenza has been observed to be most prevalent. The spatiotemporal spread of pandemic influenza can be understood through clusters of global transmission and links between them, which we identify using the epidemic percolation network (EPN of the model. We use the model to explain the observed global pattern of spread for pandemic influenza A(H1N1 2009-2010 (pandemic H1N1 2009 and to examine possible global patterns of spread for future pandemics depending on the origin of pandemic spread, time of year of emergence, and basic reproductive number (. We also use the model to investigate the effectiveness of a plausible global distribution of vaccine for various pandemic scenarios. For pandemic H1N1 2009, we show that the biggest impact of vaccination was in the temperate northern hemisphere. For pandemics starting in the temperate northern hemisphere in May or April, vaccination would have little effect in the temperate southern hemisphere and a small effect in the tropics. With the increasing interconnectedness of the world's population, we must take a global view of infectious disease transmission. Our open-source, computationally simple model can help public health officials plan for the next pandemic as well as deal with interpandemic influenza.

  3. Developing Universal Influenza Vaccines: Hitting the Nail, Not Just on the Head

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    L.C.M. Wiersma (Lidewij); G.F. Rimmelzwaan (Guus); R.D. de Vries (Rory)

    2016-01-01

    textabstractInfluenza viruses have a huge impact on public health. Current influenza vaccines need to be updated annually and protect poorly against antigenic drift variants or novel emerging subtypes. Vaccination against influenza can be improved in two important ways, either by inducing more

  4. Cost-effectiveness of alternative strategies for annual influenza vaccination among children aged 6 months to 14 years in four provinces in China.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lei Zhou

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: To support policy making, we developed an initial model to assess the cost-effectiveness of potential strategies to increase influenza vaccination rates among children in China. METHODS: We studied on children aged 6 months to 14 years in four provinces (Shandong, Henan, Hunan, and Sichuan, with a health care system perspective. We used data from 2005/6 to 2010/11, excluding 2009/10. Costs are reported in 2010 U.S. dollars. RESULTS: In comparison with no vaccination, the mean (range of Medically Attended Cases averted by the current self-payment policy for the two age groups (6 to 59 months and 60 months to 14 years was 1,465 (23 ∼ 11,132 and 792 (36 ∼ 4,247, and the cost effectiveness ratios were $ 0 (-11-51 and $ 37 (6-125 per case adverted, respectively. In comparison with the current policy, the incremental cost effectiveness ratio (ICER of alternative strategies, OPTION One-reminder and OPTION Two-comprehensive package, decreased as vaccination rate increased. The ICER for children aged 6 to 59 months was lower than that for children aged 60 months to 14 years. CONCLUSIONS: The model is a useful tool in identifying elements for evaluating vaccination strategies. However, more data are needed to produce more accurate cost-effectiveness estimates of potential vaccination policies.

  5. Cost-Effectiveness of Alternative Strategies for Annual Influenza Vaccination among Children Aged 6 Months to 14 Years in Four Provinces in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Lei; Situ, Sujian; Feng, Zijian; Atkins, Charisma Y.; Fung, Isaac Chun-Hai; Xu, Zhen; Huang, Ting; Hu, Shixiong; Wang, Xianjun; Meltzer, Martin I.

    2014-01-01

    Background To support policy making, we developed an initial model to assess the cost-effectiveness of potential strategies to increase influenza vaccination rates among children in China. Methods We studied on children aged 6 months to 14 years in four provinces (Shandong, Henan, Hunan, and Sichuan), with a health care system perspective. We used data from 2005/6 to 2010/11, excluding 2009/10. Costs are reported in 2010 U.S. dollars. Results In comparison with no vaccination, the mean (range) of Medically Attended Cases averted by the current self-payment policy for the two age groups (6 to 59 months and 60 months to 14 years) was 1,465 (23∼11,132) and 792 (36∼4,247), and the cost effectiveness ratios were $ 0 (-11-51) and $ 37 (6-125) per case adverted, respectively. In comparison with the current policy, the incremental cost effectiveness ratio (ICER) of alternative strategies, OPTION One-reminder and OPTION Two-comprehensive package, decreased as vaccination rate increased. The ICER for children aged 6 to 59 months was lower than that for children aged 60 months to 14 years. Conclusions The model is a useful tool in identifying elements for evaluating vaccination strategies. However, more data are needed to produce more accurate cost-effectiveness estimates of potential vaccination policies. PMID:24498145

  6. Study of the radiation effects on nucleic acids and related compounds. Annual progress report, August 15, 1974--August 14, 1975. [X radiation, hamster cells, Haemophilus influenzae

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, S.Y.

    1975-01-01

    Interest is being centered on the chemical and physical nature of radiation-induced lesions to nucleic acids and their components. These investigations have revealed the enormous complexity of chemical events in these systems and the possible degradation of nucleic acids by strand breakage. Therefore, work in the ionizing radiation of DNA and its components has proceeded along a dual course. For chemical studies, our prime concern is the stepwise isolation and identification of the radiation products of derivatives of pyrimidines and the study of the actual mechanisms of their formation. For biological studies, H. influenzae cells, the Chinese hamster V79B-1 cell line, and the Dunn osteosarcoma lung colony system were used. During the last year, the method of synthesis of 5-hydroperoxymethyluracil (T/sub ..cap alpha../OOH) was greatly improved. Large-scale preparation of 5-hydroxy-6-hydroperoxy-5,6-dihydrothymine (T/sup 6/OOH) were carried out in order to study the action of T/sup 6/OOH on neighboring bases, glycosidic bond-breakage, cell mutagenesis, chromosomal aberrations, and possible synergistic effects on x radiation. These results allow one to relate radiobiological effects with radiation chemical changes in DNA.

  7. Improving the representativeness of influenza viruses shared within the WHO Global Influenza Surveillance and Response System.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pereyaslov, Dmitriy; Zemtsova, Galina; Gruessner, Christine; Daniels, Rodney S; McCauley, John W; Brown, Caroline S

    2016-03-01

    Sharing influenza viruses within the WHO Global Influenza Surveillance and Response System is crucial for monitoring evolution of influenza viruses. Analysis of timeliness and geographic representativeness of viruses shared by National Influenza Centres (NICs) in the WHO European Region with the London WHO Collaborating Centre for Reference and Research on Influenza for the Northern Hemisphere's 2010-2011 and 2011-2012 influenza seasons. Data from NICs on influenza-positive specimens shared with WHO CC London for the above-mentioned influenza seasons were analyzed for timeliness of sharing with respect to the February deadline (31 January) for inclusion in the WHO consultations on the composition of influenza virus vaccines for the Northern Hemisphere and geographic representativeness. The 2010-2011 and 2011-2012 seasons were different in terms of the seasonal pattern, the timing of the epidemic, and the dominant virus. Consistent patterns of virus sharing across the seasons were observed. Approximately half the viruses collected before the deadline were not shared within the deadline; the average delay between date of specimen collection and shipment receipt was 3 and 1·5 months for the first and second season, respectively. A baseline was provided for future work on enhancement of specimen sharing in the WHO European Region and improving the vaccine virus selection process. Greater insight into virus selection criteria applied by countries and the causes of delays in shipment are needed to understand the representativeness of viruses shared and to assess the importance of this for vaccine strain selection. © 2015 The Authors. Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  8. Intranasal Administration of Whole Inactivated Influenza Virus Vaccine as a Promising Influenza Vaccine Candidate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ainai, Akira; Suzuki, Tadaki; Tamura, Shin-Ichi; Hasegawa, Hideki

    The effect of the current influenza vaccine, an inactivated virus vaccine administered by subcutaneous/intramuscular injection, is limited to reducing the morbidity and mortality associated with seasonal influenza outbreaks. Intranasal vaccination, by contrast, mimics natural infection and induces not only systemic IgG antibodies but also local secretory IgA (S-IgA) antibodies found on the surface of the mucosal epithelium in the upper respiratory tract. S-IgA antibodies are highly effective at preventing virus infection. Although the live attenuated influenza vaccine (LAIV) administered intranasally can induce local antibodies, this vaccine is restricted to healthy populations aged 2-49 years because of safety concerns associated with using live viruses in a vaccine. Instead of LAIV, an intranasal vaccine made with inactivated virus could be applied to high-risk populations, including infants and elderly adults. Normally, a mucosal adjuvant would be required to enhance the effect of intranasal vaccination with an inactivated influenza vaccine. However, we found that intranasal administration of a concentrated, whole inactivated influenza virus vaccine without any mucosal adjuvant was enough to induce local neutralizing S-IgA antibodies in the nasal epithelium of healthy individuals with some immunological memory for seasonal influenza viruses. This intranasal vaccine is a novel candidate that could improve on the current injectable vaccine or the LAIV for the prevention of seasonal influenza epidemics.

  9. Use of hangeul twitter to track and predict human influenza infection.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eui-Ki Kim

    Full Text Available Influenza epidemics arise through the accumulation of viral genetic changes. The emergence of new virus strains coincides with a higher level of influenza-like illness (ILI, which is seen as a peak of a normal season. Monitoring the spread of an epidemic influenza in populations is a difficult and important task. Twitter is a free social networking service whose messages can improve the accuracy of forecasting models by providing early warnings of influenza outbreaks. In this study, we have examined the use of information embedded in the Hangeul Twitter stream to detect rapidly evolving public awareness or concern with respect to influenza transmission and developed regression models that can track levels of actual disease activity and predict influenza epidemics in the real world. Our prediction model using a delay mode provides not only a real-time assessment of the current influenza epidemic activity but also a significant improvement in prediction performance at the initial phase of ILI peak when prediction is of most importance.

  10. Does influenza vaccination improve pediatric asthma outcomes?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ong, Bruce A; Forester, Joseph; Fallot, Andre

    2009-06-01

    vaccination is associated with fewer asthma exacerbations. After controlling for several potential confounding variables, administration of influenza vaccine was associated with a protective effect against indicators of asthma exacerbations. Our results indicate that children with asthma in the military beneficiary population may benefit from annual influenza vaccination.

  11. The Obesity Epidemic

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2011-07-18

    Learn about obesity and the community initiatives taking place to prevent and reduce this epidemic.  Created: 7/18/2011 by National Center for Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion, Division of Nutrition, Physical Activity and Obesity.   Date Released: 7/18/2011.

  12. Kanpur epidemic: Time course

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    The first peak was related to water contamination which began in December 1990. The second peak was related to failure of municipal authorities to chlorinate water during the 2nd week of February 1991. The epidemic came under control quickly after water contamination was controlled, providing confirmation for role of ...

  13. Championing School-Located Influenza Immunization: The School Nurse's Role

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Christina; Freedman, Marian; Boyer-Chu, Lynda

    2009-01-01

    According to the 2008 recommendations of the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, influenza vaccine should be administered on an annual basis to all children aged 6 months through 18 years. School-age children are more likely than any other age group to be infected with influenza, and…

  14. Epidemic Intelligence. Langmuir and the Birth of Disease Surveillance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lyle Fearnley

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available In the wake of the SARS and influenza epidemics of the past decade, one public health solution has become a refrain: surveillance systems for detection of disease outbreaks. This paper is an effort to understand how disease surveillance for outbreak detection gained such paramount rationality in contemporary public health. The epidemiologist Alexander Langmuir is well known as the creator of modern disease surveillance. But less well known is how he imagined disease surveillance as one part of what he called “epidemic intelligence.” Langmuir developed the practice of disease surveillance during an unprecedented moment in which the threat of biological warfare brought civil defense experts and epidemiologists together around a common problem. In this paper, I describe how Langmuir navigated this world, experimenting with new techniques and rationales of epidemic control. Ultimately, I argue, Langmuir′s experiments resulted in a set of techniques and infrastructures – a system of epidemic intelligence – that transformed the epidemic as an object of human art.

  15. Multiyear persistence of 2 pandemic A/H1N1 influenza virus lineages in West Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nelson, Martha I; Njouom, Richard; Viboud, Cecile; Niang, Mbayame N D; Kadjo, Hervé; Ampofo, William; Adebayo, Adedeji; Tarnagda, Zekiba; Miller, Mark A; Holmes, Edward C; Diop, Ousmane M

    2014-07-01

    Our understanding of the global ecology of influenza viruses is impeded by historically low levels of viral surveillance in Africa. Increased genetic sequencing of African A/H1N1 pandemic influenza viruses during 2009-2013 revealed multiyear persistence of 2 viral lineages within West Africa, raising questions about the roles of reduced air traffic and the asynchrony of seasonal influenza epidemics among West African countries in the evolution of independent lineages. The potential for novel influenza virus lineages to evolve within Africa warrants intensified influenza surveillance in Africa and other understudied areas.

  16. Innate immune evasion strategies of influenza viruses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hale, Benjamin G; Albrecht, Randy A; García-Sastre, Adolfo

    2010-01-01

    Influenza viruses are globally important human respiratory pathogens. These viruses cause seasonal epidemics and occasional worldwide pandemics, both of which can vary significantly in disease severity. The virulence of a particular influenza virus strain is partly determined by its success in circumventing the host immune response. This article briefly reviews the innate mechanisms that host cells have evolved to resist virus infection, and outlines the plethora of strategies that influenza viruses have developed in order to counteract such powerful defences. The molecular details of this virus-host interplay are summarized, and the ways in which research in this area is being applied to the rational design of protective vaccines and novel antivirals are discussed.

  17. Hepatitis E epidemics in India

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    The first well recorded epidemic was in 1955-56 here in Delhi with nearly 30000 cases. Large outbreaks occurred in 1978 in Kashmir. My interest in this disease began in 1991 during investigations into a large epidemic of hepatitis E in Kanpur that my mentor, later Prof SR Naik, and I undertook. I will use this epidemic as an ...

  18. Avian influenza

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    EFSA Panel on Animal Health and Welfare; More, Simon; Bicout, Dominique

    2017-01-01

    Previous introductions of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIV) to the EU were most likely via migratory wild birds. A mathematical model has been developed which indicated that virus amplification and spread may take place when wild bird populations of sufficient size within EU become...... infected. Low pathogenic avian influenza virus (LPAIV) may reach similar maximum prevalence levels in wild bird populations to HPAIV but the risk of LPAIV infection of a poultry holding was estimated to be lower than that of HPAIV. Only few non-wild bird pathways were identified having a non...

  19. [Monitoring respiratory syncytial virus through the Spanish influenza surveillance system, 2006-2014].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiménez-Jorge, Silvia; Delgado-Sanz, Concepción; de Mateo, Salvador; Pozo, Francisco; Casas, Inmaculada; Larrauri, Amparo

    2016-02-01

    The aim of the study is to analyze the information on respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) obtained through the Spanish Influenza Surveillance System (SISS) and to study its usefulness as supplementary information for the characterization of influenza epidemics. The temporal patterns of both RSV and influenza viruses were analyzed by patterns comparing the weekly viral detection rates from 2006 to 2014. In general, the RSV circulation was characterized by showing a peak between 52-1 weeks, and circulated from 2 to 8 weeks before/prior to influenza viruses. RSV information obtained from the SISS is useful for the characterization of influenza epidemics in Spain. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier España, S.L.U. y Sociedad Española de Enfermedades Infecciosas y Microbiología Clínica. All rights reserved.

  20. Network information analysis reveals risk perception transmission in a behaviour-influenza dynamics system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liao, C-M; You, S-H; Cheng, Y-H

    2015-01-01

    Influenza poses a significant public health burden worldwide. Understanding how and to what extent people would change their behaviour in response to influenza outbreaks is critical for formulating public health policies. We incorporated the information-theoretic framework into a behaviour-influenza (BI) transmission dynamics system in order to understand the effects of individual behavioural change on influenza epidemics. We showed that information transmission of risk perception played a crucial role in the spread of health-seeking behaviour throughout influenza epidemics. Here a network BI model provides a new approach for understanding the risk perception spread and human behavioural change during disease outbreaks. Our study allows simultaneous consideration of epidemiological, psychological, and social factors as predictors of individual perception rates in behaviour-disease transmission systems. We suggest that a monitoring system with precise information on risk perception should be constructed to effectively promote health behaviours in preparation for emerging disease outbreaks.

  1. Classical Swine Fever and Avian Influenza epidemcis: Lessons learned

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Elbers, A.R.; Loeffen, W.L.A.; Koch, G.

    2012-01-01

    This publication is based on a talk which was held in the course of the spring symposium „Impfen statt Keulen“ of the Akademie für Tiergesundheit (AfT) 2011 in Wiesbaden-Naurod. Experience with recent large-scale epidemics of Classical Swine Fever and Avian Influenza – among others in the

  2. Avian Influenza (Bird Flu)

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... in People Spread of Bird Flu Viruses Between Animals and People Examples of Human Infections with Avian Influenza A ... Subtypes Transmission of Avian Influenza A Viruses Between Animals and People Related Links Research Glossary of Influenza (Flu) Terms ...

  3. Influenza infection in the intensive care unit: Four years after the 2009 pandemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pérez-Carrasco, Marcos; Lagunes, Leonel; Antón, Andrés; Gattarello, Simone; Laborda, César; Pumarola, Tomás; Rello, Jordi

    2016-03-01

    The role of influenza viruses in severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) in Intensive Care Units (ICU) remains unknown. The post-pandemic influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 period, in particular, has been poorly studied. To identify influenza SARI patients in ICU, to assess the usefulness of the symptoms of influenza-like illness (ILI), and to compare the features of pandemic vs. post-pandemic influenza A(H1N1) pdm09 infection. A prospective observational study with SARI patients admitted to ICU during the first three post-pandemic seasons. Patient demographics, characteristics and outcomes were recorded. An influenza epidemic period (IEP) was defined as >100 cases/100,000 inhabitants per week. One hundred sixty-three patients were diagnosed with SARI. ILI was present in 65 (39.9%) patients. Influenza infection was documented in 41 patients, 27 (41.5%) ILI patients, and 14 (14.3%) non-ILI patients, 27 of them during an IEP. Influenza A viruses were mainly responsible. Only five patients had influenza B virus infection, which were non-ILI during an IEP. SARI overall mortality was 22.1%, and 15% in influenza infection patients. Pandemic and post-pandemic influenza infection patients shared similar clinical features. During influenza epidemic periods, influenza infection screening should be considered in all SARI patients. Influenza SARI was mainly caused by subtype A(H1N1)pdm09 and A(H3N2) in post-pandemic seasons, and no differences were observed in ILI and mortality rate compared with a pandemic season. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier España, S.L.U. y Sociedad Española de Enfermedades Infecciosas y Microbiología Clínica. All rights reserved.

  4. On the Use of Human Mobility Proxies for Modeling Epidemics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tizzoni, Michele; Bajardi, Paolo; Decuyper, Adeline; Kon Kam King, Guillaume; Schneider, Christian M.; Blondel, Vincent; Smoreda, Zbigniew; González, Marta C.; Colizza, Vittoria

    2014-01-01

    Human mobility is a key component of large-scale spatial-transmission models of infectious diseases. Correctly modeling and quantifying human mobility is critical for improving epidemic control, but may be hindered by data incompleteness or unavailability. Here we explore the opportunity of using proxies for individual mobility to describe commuting flows and predict the diffusion of an influenza-like-illness epidemic. We consider three European countries and the corresponding commuting networks at different resolution scales, obtained from (i) official census surveys, (ii) proxy mobility data extracted from mobile phone call records, and (iii) the radiation model calibrated with census data. Metapopulation models defined on these countries and integrating the different mobility layers are compared in terms of epidemic observables. We show that commuting networks from mobile phone data capture the empirical commuting patterns well, accounting for more than 87% of the total fluxes. The distributions of commuting fluxes per link from mobile phones and census sources are similar and highly correlated, however a systematic overestimation of commuting traffic in the mobile phone data is observed. This leads to epidemics that spread faster than on census commuting networks, once the mobile phone commuting network is considered in the epidemic model, however preserving to a high degree the order of infection of newly affected locations. Proxies' calibration affects the arrival times' agreement across different models, and the observed topological and traffic discrepancies among mobility sources alter the resulting epidemic invasion patterns. Results also suggest that proxies perform differently in approximating commuting patterns for disease spread at different resolution scales, with the radiation model showing higher accuracy than mobile phone data when the seed is central in the network, the opposite being observed for peripheral locations. Proxies should therefore be

  5. High-level ambient particulate matter before influenza attack with increased incidence of Aspergillus antigenemia in Southern Taiwan, 2016

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wen-Liang Yu

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available We found significant correlation between the incidence of severe influenza and Aspergillus antigenemia among medical intensive care unit patients for 7-month observation (coefficient γ=0.976, p<0.001. High-level ambient pollution was noticed for 2 months before the epidemic, highlighting that influenza patients might coinfect with aspergillosis in the community.

  6. Numerous cerebral hemorrhages in a patient with influenza-associated encephalitis: A case report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Ji Ye; Seong, Su Ok; Park, Noh Hyuck; Park, Chan Sup [Dept. of Radiology, Myongji Hospital, Goyang (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-02-15

    Influenza-associated encephalitis (IAE) is a complication of a common disease that is rare even during an epidemic. Awareness of magnetic resonance imaging features of IAE is important in treatment planning and prognosis estimation. Several reports have described necrotizing encephalopathy in children with influenza. However, few reports have described multifocal hemorrhages in both cerebral hemispheres in adults with concomitant infection with influenza A and B. Here, we describe a case of influenza A- and B-associated encephalitis accompanied by numerous cerebral hemorrhages.

  7. Chimeric Hemagglutinin Constructs Induce Broad Protection against Influenza B Virus Challenge in the Mouse Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ermler, Megan E; Kirkpatrick, Ericka; Sun, Weina; Hai, Rong; Amanat, Fatima; Chromikova, Veronika; Palese, Peter; Krammer, Florian

    2017-06-15

    Seasonal influenza virus epidemics represent a significant public health burden. Approximately 25% of all influenza virus infections are caused by type B viruses, and these infections can be severe, especially in children. Current influenza virus vaccines are an effective prophylaxis against infection but are impacted by rapid antigenic drift, which can lead to mismatches between vaccine strains and circulating strains. Here, we describe a broadly protective vaccine candidate based on chimeric hemagglutinins, consisting of globular head domains from exotic influenza A viruses and stalk domains from influenza B viruses. Sequential vaccination with these constructs in mice leads to the induction of broadly reactive antibodies that bind to the conserved stalk domain of influenza B virus hemagglutinin. Vaccinated mice are protected from lethal challenge with diverse influenza B viruses. Results from serum transfer experiments and antibody-dependent cell-mediated cytotoxicity (ADCC) assays indicate that this protection is antibody mediated and based on Fc effector functions. The present data suggest that chimeric hemagglutinin-based vaccination is a viable strategy to broadly protect against influenza B virus infection. IMPORTANCE While current influenza virus vaccines are effective, they are affected by mismatches between vaccine strains and circulating strains. Furthermore, the antiviral drug oseltamivir is less effective for treating influenza B virus infections than for treating influenza A virus infections. A vaccine that induces broad and long-lasting protection against influenza B viruses is therefore urgently needed. Copyright © 2017 American Society for Microbiology.

  8. (Epidemic of bacillary dysentery)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Auger, P.; Pouliot, B.; De Grace, M.; Milot, C.; Lafortune, M.; Bergeron, Z.

    1981-10-01

    An outbreak of bacillary dysentery in 1978 affecting 928 persons, most of whom were living in the village of St-Jacques, PQ, is described. An epidemiologic study suggested the water supply as the source of the infection, and it was established that the water carried by the municipal aqueduct was contaminated by feces containing the causal agent, Shigella sonnei. This epidemic, the largest mentioned in he Canadian medical literature, demonstrates how contagious this infection is.

  9. Detecting signals of seasonal influenza severity through age dynamics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lee, Elizabeth C.; Viboud, Cécile; Simonsen, Lone

    2015-01-01

    stages of an outbreak. To address the limitations of traditional indicators, we propose a novel severity index based on influenza age dynamics estimated from routine physician diagnosis data that can be used retrospectively and for early warning. METHODS: We developed a quantitative 'ground truth......' severity benchmark that synthesizes multiple traditional severity indicators from publicly available influenza surveillance data in the United States. Observing that the age distribution of cases may signal severity early in an epidemic, we constructed novel retrospective and early warning severity indexes....... The retrospective index was well correlated with the severity benchmark and correctly identified the two most severe seasons. The early warning index performance varied, but it projected 2007-08 as relatively severe 10 weeks prior to the epidemic peak. Influenza severity varied significantly among states within...

  10. A DNA Vaccine-Encoded Nucleoprotein of Influenza Virus Fails To Induce Cellular Immune Responses in a Diabetic Mouse Model▿

    OpenAIRE

    Jamali, Abbas; Sabahi, Farzaneh; Bamdad, Taravat; Hashemi, Hamidreza; Mahboudi, Fereidoun; Kheiri, Masume Tavasoti

    2010-01-01

    International audience; Influenza virus infections cause yearly epidemics and are a major cause of lower respiratory tract illnesses in humans worldwide. Influenza virus has long been recognized to be associated with higher morbidity and mortality in diabetic patients. Vaccination is an effective tool to prevent influenza virus infection in this group of patients. Vaccines employing recombinant-DNA technologies are an alternative to inactivated virus and live attenuated virus vaccines. Intern...

  11. Understanding Virtual Epidemics: Children's Folk Conceptions of a Computer Virus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kafai, Yasmin B.

    2008-01-01

    Our work investigates the annual outbreak of Whypox, a virtual epidemic in Whyville.net, a virtual world with over 1.2 million registered players ages 8-16. We examined online and classroom participants' understanding of a computer virus using surveys and design activities. Our analyses reveal that students have a mostly naive understanding of a…

  12. Epidemiology of Invasive Haemophilus influenzae Disease, Europe, 2007-2014.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whittaker, Robert; Economopoulou, Assimoula; Dias, Joana Gomes; Bancroft, Elizabeth; Ramliden, Miriam; Celentano, Lucia Pastore

    2017-03-01

    We describe the epidemiology of invasive Haemophilus influenzae disease during 2007-2014 in 12 European countries and assess overall H. influenzae disease trends by serotype and patient age. Mean annual notification rate was 0.6 cases/100,000 population, with an increasing annual trend of 3.3% (95% CI 2.3% to 4.3%). The notification rate was highest for patients influenzae (NTHi) caused 78% of all cases and showed increasing trends among persons 20 years of age. Serotype f cases showed an increasing trend among persons >60 years of age. Serotype b cases showed decreasing trends among persons 1-5 months, 1-4 years, and >40 years of age. Sustained success of routine H. influenzae serotype b vaccination is evident. Surveillance systems must adopt a broad focus for invasive H. influenzae disease. Increasing reports of NTHi, particularly among neonates, highlight the potential benefit of a vaccine against NTHi.

  13. Epidemiology of Invasive Haemophilus influenzae Disease, Europe, 2007–2014

    Science.gov (United States)

    Economopoulou, Assimoula; Dias, Joana Gomes; Bancroft, Elizabeth; Ramliden, Miriam; Celentano, Lucia Pastore

    2017-01-01

    We describe the epidemiology of invasive Haemophilus influenzae disease during 2007–2014 in 12 European countries and assess overall H. influenzae disease trends by serotype and patient age. Mean annual notification rate was 0.6 cases/100,000 population, with an increasing annual trend of 3.3% (95% CI 2.3% to 4.3%). The notification rate was highest for patients influenzae (NTHi) caused 78% of all cases and showed increasing trends among persons 20 years of age. Serotype f cases showed an increasing trend among persons >60 years of age. Serotype b cases showed decreasing trends among persons 1–5 months, 1–4 years, and >40 years of age. Sustained success of routine H. influenzae serotype b vaccination is evident. Surveillance systems must adopt a broad focus for invasive H. influenzae disease. Increasing reports of NTHi, particularly among neonates, highlight the potential benefit of a vaccine against NTHi. PMID:28220749

  14. Influenza seasonality in Madagascar: the mysterious African free-runner.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alonso, Wladimir Jimenez; Guillebaud, Julia; Viboud, Cecile; Razanajatovo, Norosoa Harline; Orelle, Arnaud; Zhou, Steven Zhixiang; Randrianasolo, Laurence; Heraud, Jean-Michel

    2015-05-01

    The seasonal drivers of influenza activity remain debated in tropical settings where epidemics are not clearly phased. Antananarivo is a particularly interesting case study because it is in Madagascar, an island situated in the tropics and with quantifiable connectivity levels to other countries. We aimed at disentangling the role of environmental forcing and population fluxes on influenza seasonality in Madagascar. We compiled weekly counts of laboratory-confirmed influenza-positive specimens for the period 2002 to 2012 collected in Antananarivo, with data available from sub-Saharan countries and countries contributing most foreign travelers to Madagascar. Daily climate indicators were compiled for the study period. Overall, influenza activity detected in Antananarivo predated that identified in temperate Northern Hemisphere locations. This activity presented poor temporal matching with viral activity in other countries from the African continent or countries highly connected to Madagascar excepted for A(H1N1)pdm09. Influenza detection in Antananarivo was not associated with travel activity and, although it was positively correlated with all climatic variables studied, such association was weak. The timing of influenza activity in Antananarivo is irregular, is not driven by climate, and does not align with that of countries in geographic proximity or highly connected to Madagascar. This work opens fresh questions regarding the drivers of influenza seasonality globally particularly in mid-latitude and less-connected regions to tailor vaccine strategies locally. © 2015 The Authors. Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  15. Anti-phase synchronization of influenza A/H1N1 and A/H3N2 in Hong Kong and countries in the North Temperate Zone.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chiu, Alice P Y; Lin, Qianying; Tang, Edwin Yiu Nam; He, Daihai

    2018-01-01

    Influenza affects 10% of the global population annually. Hong Kong is a subtropical city close to the North Temperate Zone (NTZ). Influenza-associated mortality rates in Hong Kong were 27.53, 79.55, 36.94, and 48.72 per one million person-years in 2014, 2015, 2016, and January to July 2017, respectively. The aim of this study was to explore the temporal patterns of influenza A subtypes in both Hong Kong and the NTZ. Weekly reported cases of influenza A/H1N1 and A/H3N2 from January 2010 to July 2017 were downloaded from the Centre for Health Protection in Hong Kong and FluNet (provided by the World Health Organization). The spatio-temporal patterns of A/H1N1 and A/H3N2 in Hong Kong and the NTZ were explored. Anti-phase synchronization between A/H1N1 and A/H3N2 is indicated by a high for A/H1N1 coinciding with a low for A/H3N2, and vice versa. Anti-phase synchronization was evident in both Hong Kong and the NTZ. It was found that A/H3N2 clearly dominated in the 2011/2012, 2014/2015, and 2016/2017 influenza seasons. These results are novel in identifying anti-phase synchronization in influenza A subtypes in Hong Kong and the NTZ. These findings should inform public health preparedness for future epidemics of A/H3N2, which are typically more severe than those of A/H1N1. Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  16. Comparison of multiplex RT-PCR with virus isolation for detection, typing and sub-typing of influenza virus from influenza-like illness cases

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S Dhakad

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: Influenza epidemics and periodic pandemics occur worldwide resulting in significant mortality, morbidity and economic loss. There is need for a sensitive, rapid and cost-effective assay to detect, type and sub-type influenza viruses, as cell culture has a long turnaround time. Materials and Methods: Nasopharyngeal swabs were collected from patients presenting with influenza-like illness (ILI at AIIMS OPD and Primary Health Centre Ballabhgarh (Haryana. From June 2007 to January 2009 and then from September to November 2009, of 1567 specimens collected, 544 were randomly selected and were tested by virus culture using Madin-Darby Canine Kidney (MDCK cells and by reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR for influenza A using primers for matrix gene and for influenza B using non-structural gene (NS primers. All influenza A positives were sub-typed using primers for HA and NA genes of A/H1, A/H3. A separate multiplex RT-PCR having primers from matrix and HA genes of pandemic A (H1N1 pdm09 viruses was carried out on samples collected after September 2009. Results: Of the 544 samples, 136 (25% were positive for influenza by RT-PCR. Further typing analysis revealed 86 (63.2% were typed as influenza A and 47 (34.5% as influenza B viruses and 3 (2% samples showed dual infection with influenza A and B. Of the 86 influenza A positive samples 48 (55.8% were identified as seasonal influenza A/H1N1, 22 (25.6% as A (H1N1 pdm09 and 16 (18.6% as A/H3N2. Comparison of influenza positivity using virus culture revealed that only 97/136 (71.3% were influenza positive. Sensitivity of viral detection was lowest for seasonal A/H1 (26/48; 54%, followed by H3N2 (11/16; 68.7% and influenza B (38/47; 80.8%; all influenza A/H1N1pdm09 viruses were detected by both methods. Conclusion: RT-PCR is a sensitive, low cost and rapid screening test for diagnosing influenza infection during epidemics and pandemics. mRT-PCR increased the detection rates for

  17. The threat of pandemic influenza: are we ready? : workshop summary

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Knobler, Stacey

    2005-01-01

    .... Moreover, recent problems with the availability and strain-specificity of vaccine for annual flu epidemics in some countries and the rise of pandemic strains of avian flu in disparate geographic...

  18. Avian influenza

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tjandra Y. Aditama

    2006-06-01

    Full Text Available Avian influenza, or “bird flu”, is a contagious disease of animals which crossed the species barrier to infect humans and gave a quite impact on public health in the world since 2004, especially due to the threat of pandemic situation. Until 1st March 2006, laboratory-confirmed human cases have been reported in seven countries: Cambodia, Indonesia, Thailand, Viet Nam, China, Iraq and Turkey with a total of 174 cases and 94 dead (54.02%. Indonesia has 27 cases, 20 were dead (74.07%. AI cases in Indonesia are more in male (62.5% and all have a symptom of fever. An influenza pandemic is a rare but recurrent event. An influenza pandemic happens when a new subtype emerges that has not previously circulated in humans. For this reason, avian H5N1 is a strain with pandemic potential, since it might ultimately adapt into a strain that is contagious among humans. Impact of the pandemic could include high rates of illness and worker absenteeism are expected, and these will contribute to social and economic disruption. Historically, the number of deaths during a pandemic has varied greatly. Death rates are largely determined by four factors: the number of people who become infected, the virulence of the virus, the underlying characteristics and vulnerability of affected populations, and the effectiveness of preventive measures. Accurate predictions of mortality cannot be made before the pandemic virus emerges and begins to spread. (Med J Indones 2006; 15:125-8Keywords: Avian Influenza, Pandemic

  19. Multi-step prediction for influenza outbreak by an adjusted long short-term memory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, J; Nawata, K

    2018-04-02

    Influenza results in approximately 3-5 million annual cases of severe illness and 250 000-500 000 deaths. We urgently need an accurate multi-step-ahead time-series forecasting model to help hospitals to perform dynamical assignments of beds to influenza patients for the annually varied influenza season, and aid pharmaceutical companies to formulate a flexible plan of manufacturing vaccine for the yearly different influenza vaccine. In this study, we utilised four different multi-step prediction algorithms in the long short-term memory (LSTM). The result showed that implementing multiple single-output prediction in a six-layer LSTM structure achieved the best accuracy. The mean absolute percentage errors from two- to 13-step-ahead prediction for the US influenza-like illness rates were all multi-step-ahead prediction for influenza outbreaks. Hopefully, this modelling methodology can be applied in other countries and therefore help prevent and control influenza worldwide.

  20. ADULT INFLUENZA VACCINATION GUIDELINE

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    immunisation, and successful influenza vaccines are available each year for the predominant serotypes of the virus. 2. THE VIRUS2.6-9. The influenza viruses are enveloped viruses with a segmented. RNA genome. There are three types, influenza A, B and C based on antigenic differences. Both influenza A and B viruses.

  1. INFLUENZA IMMUNISATION IN HIV-INFECTED PERSONS

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    in 1997' (surpassing the 6O'lb vaccine coverage goal for the country's Healthy People 2000 Project). ... (i) are HIV-infected persons at special risk for influenza complications and is annual immunisation .... virus type' 1 rep :cation can be increased in peripheral 0100d of sero- positive patiems aher influenrc. vacdnation.

  2. Burden of medically attended influenza infection and cases averted by vaccination — United States, 2013/14 through 2015/16 influenza seasons

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jackson, Michael L.; Phillips, C. Hallie; Benoit, Joyce; Jackson, Lisa A.; Gaglani, Manjusha; Murthy, Kempapura; McLean, Huong Q.; Belongia, Edward A.; Malosh, Ryan; Zimmerman, Richard; Flannery, Brendan

    2018-01-01

    Background In addition to preventing hospitalizations and deaths due to influenza, influenza vaccination programs can reduce the burden of outpatient visits for influenza. We estimated the incidence of medically-attended influenza at three geographically diverse sites in the United States, and the cases averted by vaccination, for the 2013/14 through 2015/16 influenza seasons. Methods We defined surveillance populations at three sites from the United States Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness Network. Among these populations, we identified outpatient visits laboratory-confirmed influenza via active surveillance, and identified all outpatient visits for acute respiratory illness from healthcare databases. We extrapolated the total number of outpatient visits for influenza from the proportion of surveillance visits with a positive influenza test. We combined estimates of incidence, vaccine coverage, and vaccine effectiveness to estimate outpatient visits averted by vaccination. Results Across the three sites and seasons, incidence of medically attended influenza ranged from 14 to 54 per 1,000 population. Incidence was highest in children aged 6 months to 9 years (33 to 70 per 1,000) and lowest in adults aged 18-49 years (21 to 27 per 1,000). Cases averted ranged from 9 per 1,000 vaccinees (Washington, 2014/15) to 28 per 1,000 (Wisconsin, 2013/14). Discussion Seasonal influenza epidemics cause a considerable burden of outpatient medical visits. The United States influenza vaccination program has caused meaningful reductions in outpatient visits for influenza, even in years when the vaccine is not well-matched to the dominant circulating influenza strain. PMID:29249545

  3. Evaluation of Sofia fluorescent immunoassay analyzer for influenza A/B virus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Chang Kyu; Cho, Chi Hyun; Woo, Mi Kyung; Nyeck, Agnes E; Lim, Chae Seung; Kim, Woo Joo

    2012-11-01

    The influenza virus causes seasonal epidemics which are associated with high morbidity and mortality. Rapid diagnostics tests (RDT) are frequently used to make a quick influenza diagnosis to confirm the clinical suspicion, despite their low sensitivity. Assess the performance of the Sofia Influenza A+B Fluorescence Immunoassay (Quidel, San Diego, CA). Nasopharyngeal swabs, taken from 241 patients (influenza A (n=73)/B (n=72), negative samples (n=96)) were analyzed using the Sofia Influenza A+B Fluorescence Immunoassay, BinaxNOW Influenza A/B antigen kit (Alere Inc., USA), Directigen EZ Flu A and B (Becton Dickinson, USA), real-time RT-PCR and an influenza virus culture. There was a significant difference between the performance of rapid antigen tests and the Sofia FIA, when compared to the RT-PCR, in the detection of influenza strain A and B. Indeed, the Sofia FIA displayed sensitivities of 82.2% and 77.8% for strains A and B respectively, whereas sensitivities of BinaxNOW Influenza A/B antigen kit, and Directigen Flu A and B were 54.8%, and 68.5% for influenza A, and 62.5%, and 52.8% for influenza B respectively. The average RT-PCR threshold cycle (C(t)) (±SD) for the Sofia Influenza A+B Fluorescence Immunoassay-positive specimens was higher than those of the BinaxNOW Influenza A/B antigen and the Directigen EZ Flu A and B kit positive specimens. Compared to other RDTs, the Sofia Influenza A+B Fluorescence Immunoassay is a sensitive, and rapid method for the detection and discrimination between influenza A and B. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  4. Segurança, imunogenicidade e eficácia da vacina contra o vírus influenza em crianças Safety, immunogenicity and efficacy of influenza vaccine in children

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Otávio A. L. Cintra

    2006-07-01

    search of the medical literature indexed on MEDLINE, LILACS and in the Cochrane Library. Review articles, clinical trials and epidemiological studies published from 1990 to 2006 were selected for analysis. SUMMARY OF THE FINDINGS: Influenza is an infectious disease that is both universal and seasonal, with incidence in all age groups and annual epidemics characterized by excessive morbidity and mortality. The elderly and people with comorbidity are high risk groups for severe influenza. It has recently been proven that healthy infants suffer similar morbidity to other risk groups, and therefore vaccination against influenza is indicated for them too, as being the most effective means of preventing infection by the influenza virus. The safety of influenza vaccines in children appears adequate, with the most often observed adverse effects being local reactions or fever. Immunogenicity in children varies from 30 to 90%, being directly proportional to age. Efficacy depends on the primary objective and can range from levels comparable with placebo to up to 91% efficacy against confirmed influenza A infection. Schoolchildren play an important role in the dissemination of the influenza virus, and population studies have demonstrated herd immunity. CONCLUSIONS: Trivalent influenza vaccines, whether inactivated or attenuated, have low reactogenicity and offer variable immunogenicity and efficacy in children. Vaccination is effective for prevention of infections by the influenza virus and for reducing morbidity. More powerful studies of efficacy and safety in infants are still required.

  5. The influence of meteorology on the spread of influenza: survival analysis of an equine influenza (A/H3N8) outbreak.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Firestone, Simon M; Cogger, Naomi; Ward, Michael P; Toribio, Jenny-Ann L M L; Moloney, Barbara J; Dhand, Navneet K

    2012-01-01

    The influences of relative humidity and ambient temperature on the transmission of influenza A viruses have recently been established under controlled laboratory conditions. The interplay of meteorological factors during an actual influenza epidemic is less clear, and research into the contribution of wind to epidemic spread is scarce. By applying geostatistics and survival analysis to data from a large outbreak of equine influenza (A/H3N8), we quantified the association between hazard of infection and air temperature, relative humidity, rainfall, and wind velocity, whilst controlling for premises-level covariates. The pattern of disease spread in space and time was described using extraction mapping and instantaneous hazard curves. Meteorological conditions at each premises location were estimated by kriging daily meteorological data and analysed as time-lagged time-varying predictors using generalised Cox regression. Meteorological covariates time-lagged by three days were strongly associated with hazard of influenza infection, corresponding closely with the incubation period of equine influenza. Hazard of equine influenza infection was higher when relative humidity was 30 km hour(-1) from the direction of nearby infected premises were associated with increased hazard of infection. Through combining detailed influenza outbreak and meteorological data, we provide empirical evidence for the underlying environmental mechanisms that influenced the local spread of an outbreak of influenza A. Our analysis supports, and extends, the findings of studies into influenza A transmission conducted under laboratory conditions. The relationships described are of direct importance for managing disease risk during influenza outbreaks in horses, and more generally, advance our understanding of the transmission of influenza A viruses under field conditions.

  6. Gnarled-trunk evolutionary model of influenza A virus hemagglutinin.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kimihito Ito

    Full Text Available Human influenza A viruses undergo antigenic changes with gradual accumulation of amino acid substitutions on the hemagglutinin (HA molecule. A strong antigenic mismatch between vaccine and epidemic strains often requires the replacement of influenza vaccines worldwide. To establish a practical model enabling us to predict the future direction of the influenza virus evolution, relative distances of amino acid sequences among past epidemic strains were analyzed by multidimensional scaling (MDS. We found that human influenza viruses have evolved along a gnarled evolutionary pathway with an approximately constant curvature in the MDS-constructed 3D space. The gnarled pathway indicated that evolution on the trunk favored multiple substitutions at the same amino acid positions on HA. The constant curvature was reasonably explained by assuming that the rate of amino acid substitutions varied from one position to another according to a gamma distribution. Furthermore, we utilized the estimated parameters of the gamma distribution to predict the amino acid substitutions on HA in subsequent years. Retrospective prediction tests for 12 years from 1997 to 2009 showed that 70% of actual amino acid substitutions were correctly predicted, and that 45% of predicted amino acid substitutions have been actually observed. Although it remains unsolved how to predict the exact timing of antigenic changes, the present results suggest that our model may have the potential to recognize emerging epidemic strains.

  7. Hepatitis E epidemics in India

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Notes: We compiled this slide in 1992. It shows dates, locations and number of cases for various epidemics reported from different parts of India till that time. The first well recorded epidemic was in 1955-56 here in Delhi with nearly 30000 cases. Large outbreaks occurred in 1978 in Kashmir. My interest in this disease began ...

  8. Identification of a highly conserved H1 subtype-specific epitope with diagnostic potential in the hemagglutinin protein of influenza A virus.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rongmao Zhao

    Full Text Available Subtype specificity of influenza A virus (IAV is determined by its two surface glycoproteins, hemagglutinin (HA and neuraminidase (NA. For HA, 16 distinct subtypes (H1-H16 exist, while nine exist for NA. The epidemic strains of H1N1 IAV change frequently and cause annual seasonal epidemics as well as occasional pandemics, such as the notorious 1918 influenza pandemic. The recent introduction of pandemic A/H1N1 IAV (H1N1pdm virus into humans re-emphasizes the public health concern about H1N1 IAV. Several studies have identified conserved epitopes within specific HA subtypes that can be used for diagnostics. However, immune specific epitopes in H1N1 IAV have not been completely assessed. In this study, linear epitopes on the H1N1pdm viral HA protein were identified by peptide scanning using libraries of overlapping peptides against convalescent sera from H1N1pdm patients. One epitope, P5 (aa 58-72 was found to be immunodominant in patients and to evoke high titer antibodies in mice. Multiple sequence alignments and in silico coverage analysis showed that this epitope is highly conserved in influenza H1 HA [with a coverage of 91.6% (9,860/10,767] and almost completely absent in other subtypes [with a coverage of 3.3% (792/23,895]. This previously unidentified linear epitope is located outside the five well-recognized antigenic sites in HA. A peptide ELISA method based on this epitope was developed and showed high correlation (χ(2 = 51.81, P<0.01, Pearson correlation coefficient R = 0.741 with a hemagglutination inhibition test. The highly conserved H1 subtype-specific immunodominant epitope may form the basis for developing novel assays for sero-diagnosis and active surveillance against H1N1 IAVs.

  9. Social deprivation and burden of influenza: Testing hypotheses and gaining insights from a simulation model for the spread of influenza

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ayaz Hyder

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Factors associated with the burden of influenza among vulnerable populations have mainly been identified using statistical methodologies. Complex simulation models provide mechanistic explanations, in terms of spatial heterogeneity and contact rates, while controlling other factors and may be used to better understand statistical patterns and, ultimately, design optimal population-level interventions. We extended a sophisticated simulation model, which was applied to forecast epidemics and validated for predictive ability, to identify mechanisms for the empirical relationship between social deprivation and the burden of influenza. Our modeled scenarios and associated epidemic metrics systematically assessed whether neighborhood composition and/or spatial arrangement could qualitatively replicate this empirical relationship. We further used the model to determine consequences of local-scale heterogeneities on larger scale disease spread. Our findings indicated that both neighborhood composition and spatial arrangement were critical to qualitatively match the empirical relationship of interest. Also, when social deprivation was fully included in the model, we observed lower age-based attack rates and greater delay in epidemic peak week in the most socially deprived neighborhoods. Insights from simulation models complement current understandings from statistical-based association studies. Additional insights from our study are: (1 heterogeneous spatial arrangement of neighborhoods is a necessary condition for simulating observed disparities in the burden of influenza and (2 unmeasured factors may lead to a better quantitative match between simulated and observed rate ratio in the burden of influenza between the most and least socially deprived populations.

  10. The epidemic of methylisothiazolinone

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schwensen, Jakob F; Uter, Wolfgang; Bruze, Magnus

    2017-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The use of methylisothiazolinone (MI) in cosmetic products has caused an unprecedented epidemic of MI contact allergy. Current data concerning exposures at a European level are required. OBJECTIVES: To describe demographics and MI exposures for European patients with MI contact allergy....... METHODS: Eleven European dermatology departments from eight European countries prospectively collected data between 1 May and 31 October 2015 among consecutive patients who had positive patch test reactions to MI (2000 ppm aq.). RESULTS: A total of 6.0% (205/3434; range 2.6-13.0%) of patients had positive...... patch test reactions to MI. Dermatitis most frequently affected the hands (43.4%), face (32.7%), arms (14.6%), and eyelids (11.7%); 12.7% had widespread dermatitis. For 72.7% (149/205), MI contact allergy was currently relevant mainly because of exposure to cosmetic products (83.2%; 124...

  11. [Epidemic of rubella encephalitis].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ben Achour, N; Benrhouma, H; Rouissi, A; Touaiti, H; Kraoua, I; Turki, I; Gouider-Khouja, N

    2013-08-01

    Rubella is a mild viral illness in children. Rubella encephalitis is an extremely uncommon complication of rubella affecting unvaccinated children, aged between 5 and 14 years. From May to June 2011, we observed 9 cases of rubella encephalitis diagnosed during an epidemic of rubella. All were previously healthy (8 boys and 1 girl). None of them had received rubella vaccine. The mean age was 11.6 years. The onset of neurological symptoms occurred within 1-5 days after the typical rush and was associated with seizures and altered consciousness in all cases. The presence of serum immunoglobulin M antibody against rubella virus was demonstrated in all patients. EEGs showed slow wave activity in all patients and brain MRI was normal in the 9 cases. Full recovery was obtained in all patients. However, 4 of them required intensive care unit referral. Acute encephalitis is an extremely rare complication of rubella. The main neurological findings are headache, ataxia, and hemiplegia. Epileptic seizure and altered consciousness are rarely observed. Rubella encephalitis is generally self-limiting with about 80% recovery rate with no sequelae. However, severe courses have been reported. These cases illustrated the potential severity of rubella and they should be prevented by encouraging widespread early childhood vaccination. In Tunisia, rubella encephalitis has been reported once previously and vaccination against rubella virus has only recently been included in the national vaccination program, prescribed only for adolescent females. Following this rubella epidemic, vaccination strategies in Tunisia have been revised. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  12. Evolutionary history and phylodynamics of influenza A and B neuraminidase (NA genes inferred from large-scale sequence analyses.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jianpeng Xu

    Full Text Available Influenza neuraminidase (NA is an important surface glycoprotein and plays a vital role in viral replication and drug development. The NA is found in influenza A and B viruses, with nine subtypes classified in influenza A. The complete knowledge of influenza NA evolutionary history and phylodynamics, although critical for the prevention and control of influenza epidemics and pandemics, remains lacking.Evolutionary and phylogenetic analyses of influenza NA sequences using Maximum Likelihood and Bayesian MCMC methods demonstrated that the divergence of influenza viruses into types A and B occurred earlier than the divergence of influenza A NA subtypes. Twenty-three lineages were identified within influenza A, two lineages were classified within influenza B, and most lineages were specific to host, subtype or geographical location. Interestingly, evolutionary rates vary not only among lineages but also among branches within lineages. The estimated tMRCAs of influenza lineages suggest that the viruses of different lineages emerge several months or even years before their initial detection. The d(N/d(S ratios ranged from 0.062 to 0.313 for influenza A lineages, and 0.257 to 0.259 for influenza B lineages. Structural analyses revealed that all positively selected sites are at the surface of the NA protein, with a number of sites found to be important for host antibody and drug binding.The divergence into influenza type A and B from a putative ancestral NA was followed by the divergence of type A into nine NA subtypes, of which 23 lineages subsequently diverged. This study provides a better understanding of influenza NA lineages and their evolutionary dynamics, which may facilitate early detection of newly emerging influenza viruses and thus improve influenza surveillance.

  13. Estimating burden of influenza-associated influenza-like illness and severe acute respiratory infection at public healthcare facilities in Romania during the 2011/12-2015/16 influenza seasons.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gefenaite, Giedre; Pistol, Adriana; Popescu, Rodica; Popovici, Odette; Ciurea, Daniel; Dolk, Christiaan; Jit, Mark; Gross, Diane

    2018-01-01

    Influenza is responsible for substantial morbidity and mortality, but there is limited information on reliable disease burden estimates, especially from middle-income countries in the WHO European Region. To estimate the incidence of medically attended influenza-associated influenza-like illness (ILI) and hospitalizations due to severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) presenting to public healthcare facilities in Romania. Sentinel influenza surveillance data for ILI and SARI from 2011/12-2015/16, including virological data, were used to estimate influenza-associated ILI and SARI incidence/100 000 and their 95% confidence intervals (95% CI). The overall annual incidence of ILI and influenza-associated ILI per 100 000 persons in Romania varied between 68 (95% CI: 61-76) and 318 (95% CI: 298-338) and between 23 (95% CI: 19-29) and 189 (95% CI: 149-240), respectively. The highest ILI and influenza incidence was among children aged 0-4 years. We estimated that SARI incidence per 100 000 persons was 6 (95% CI: 5-7) to 9 (95% CI: 8-10), of which 2 (95% CI: 1-2) to 3 (95% CI: 2-4) were due to influenza. Up to 0.3% of the Romanian population were annually reported with ILI, and 0.01% was hospitalized with SARI, of which as much as one-third could be explained by influenza. This evaluation was the first study estimating influenza burden in Romania. We found that during each influenza season, a substantial number of persons in Romania suffer from influenza-related ILI or are hospitalized due to influenza-associated SARI. © 2017 The World Health Organization. Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  14. [Clinical features and contagiousness of influenza A(H1N1) in health care workers and hospitalized patients in a Mexico City hospital].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Angeles-Garay, Ulises; Gayosso Rivera, José A; Zacate-Palacios, Yazmín; Rechy-Luna, Miguel; Terrazas Estrada, Juan J; Arias-Flores, Rafael

    2011-11-01

    Respiratory infections increased in Mexico in 2009 due to an epidemic of influenza. To compare symptoms and infectivity of influenza A(H1N1) and seasonal influenza we evaluated epidemiological data and microbiological sampling of health workers (HW) and patients who probably had influenza. From April to November 2009 we studied 83 HW (29 with influenza A(H1N1) and 8 with seasonal influenza) and 71 patients (26 and 11, respectively). The subtypes of influenza had similar clinical data. Fifteen patients with immunosuppression or chronic diseases developed fatal pneumonia; the infectivity was greater for influenza A(H1N1). Copyright © 2010 Elsevier España, S.L. All rights reserved.

  15. Effectiveness of 2010/2011 seasonal influenza vaccine in Ireland.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Barret, A S

    2012-02-01

    We conducted a case-control study to estimate the 2010\\/2011 trivalent influenza vaccine effectiveness (TIVE) using the Irish general practitioners\\' influenza sentinel surveillance scheme. Cases were influenza-like illness (ILI) patients with laboratory-confirmed influenza. Controls were ILI patients who tested negative for influenza. Participating sentinel general practitioners (GP) collected swabs from patients presenting with ILI along with their vaccination history and other individual characteristics. The TIVE was computed as (1 - odds ratiofor vaccination) x100%. Of 60 sentinel GP practices, 22 expressed interest in participating in the study and 17 (28%) recruited at least one ILI patient. In the analysis, we included 106 cases and 85 controls. Seven controls (8.2%) and one influenza case (0.9%) had been vaccinated in 2010\\/2011. The estimated TIVE against any influenza subtype was 89.4% [95% CI: 13.8; 99.8%], suggesting a protective effect against GP-attended laboratory confirmed influenza. This study design could be used to monitor influenza vaccine effectiveness annually but sample size and vaccination coverage should be increased to obtain precise and adjusted estimates.

  16. [Experience in the use of Tebrophen for influenza prevention].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stel'makh, S G; Levchenko, I F

    1975-06-01

    The efficacy of influenca prophylaxis by a new Soviet chemopreparation tebrophen was studied during the influenza epidemics of 1972-1973 caused by the influenza virus of A/Hong-kong/68 and A/England/72/H3N2/types. Investigations were carried out under conditions of an epidemiological experience among the organized (adult) collective bodies (4352 persons in all). The preparation was instilled intranasally in the form of a 0.25 and 1% ointment on vaseline base. The efficacy index was 2.0-2.7, and the protection index--51--60%.

  17. Quantitative detection of Staphylococcus aureus, Streptococcus pneumoniae and Haemophilus influenzae in patients with new influenza A (H1N1)/2009 and influenza A/2010 virus infection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Safaeyan, Firouzeh; Nahaei, Mohammad Reza; Seifi, Sirus Jedary; Kafil, Hossein Samadi; Sadeghi, Javid

    2015-01-01

    Viral influenza is a seasonal infection associated with significant morbidity and mortality. In the United States more than 35,000 deaths and 200,000 hospitalizations are recorded annually due to influenza. Secondary bacterial infections or co-infections associated with cases of influenza are a leading cause of severe morbidity and mortality, especially among high-risk groups such as the elderly and young children. The aim of the present study was the quantitative detection of S. aureus, S. pneumoniae and H. influenzae in a group of patients with seasonal influenza A, influenza A (H1N1) pandemic 2009, and patients with symptoms of respiratory infection, but the negative for H1N1 serving as control group. In total, 625 patients suspected respiratory infection from April 2009 to April 2010 were studied. There were 58 patients with influenza A H1N1 and 567 patients negative for influenza A H1N1. From November 2010 to February 2011, 158 patients with respiratory symptoms were analyzed for seasonal influenza A. There were 25 patients with seasonal influenza A. To check the colonization status among the healthy individuals 62 healthy persons were further investigated. Individual were screened in parallel. The choices of special genes were amplified from clinical specimens using real-time PCR with a cutoff of 10(4) CFU/mL to differentiate colonization from infection in respiratory tract. S. aureus, S. pneumoniae and H. influenzae were detected in 12%, 26% and 33% of patients with H1N1, while the corresponding figures were 9%, 19%, and 31% for H1N1 negative patients. Among patients with seasonal influenza A 12% S. aureus, 24% S. pneumoniae, and 32% H. influenzae co-infections were detected, while influenza negative control group yielded 5% S. aureus, 11% S. pneumoniae, and 10% H. influenzae, respectively. The results of this study indicated that the serotype of pandemic H1N1 2009 did not increase incidence of secondary infection with S. aureus, S. pneumoniae and H

  18. Influenza vaccination in children with neurologic or neurodevelopmental disorders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Michael; Peacock, Georgina; Uyeki, Timothy M; Moore, Cynthia

    2015-05-11

    providers about influenza and the benefit of annual influenza vaccination is needed. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Interaction of nanodiamonds materials with influenza viruses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ivanova, V T; Ivanova, M V; Garina, K O; Trushakova, S V; Manykin, A A; Burseva, E I; Spitsyn, B V; Korzhenevsky, A P

    2012-01-01

    The perspectives of the application of modern materials contained nanodiamonds (ND) are considered in this study. The interaction between detonation paniculate ND, soot and influenza A and B viruses, fragments of cDNA were analyzed at the normal conditions. It was shown that these sorbents can interact with the following viruses: reference epidemic strains of influenza A(H1N1), A(H1N1)v, A(H3N2) and B viruses circulated in the word in 2000-2010. The allantoises, concentrated viruses, cDNA can be absorbed by ND sorbents and getting removed from water solutions within 20 min. ND sorbents can be used for the preparation of antivirus filters for water solution and for future diagnostic systems in virology.

  20. Contact transmission of influenza virus between ferrets imposes a looser bottleneck than respiratory droplet transmission allowing propagation of antiviral resistance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frise, Rebecca; Bradley, Konrad; van Doremalen, Neeltje; Galiano, Monica; Elderfield, Ruth A.; Stilwell, Peter; Ashcroft, Jonathan W.; Fernandez-Alonso, Mirian; Miah, Shahjahan; Lackenby, Angie; Roberts, Kim L.; Donnelly, Christl A.; Barclay, Wendy S.

    2016-01-01

    Influenza viruses cause annual seasonal epidemics and occasional pandemics. It is important to elucidate the stringency of bottlenecks during transmission to shed light on mechanisms that underlie the evolution and propagation of antigenic drift, host range switching or drug resistance. The virus spreads between people by different routes, including through the air in droplets and aerosols, and by direct contact. By housing ferrets under different conditions, it is possible to mimic various routes of transmission. Here, we inoculated donor animals with a mixture of two viruses whose genomes differed by one or two reverse engineered synonymous mutations, and measured the transmission of the mixture to exposed sentinel animals. Transmission through the air imposed a tight bottleneck since most recipient animals became infected by only one virus. In contrast, a direct contact transmission chain propagated a mixture of viruses suggesting the dose transferred by this route was higher. From animals with a mixed infection of viruses that were resistant and sensitive to the antiviral drug oseltamivir, resistance was propagated through contact transmission but not by air. These data imply that transmission events with a looser bottleneck can propagate minority variants and may be an important route for influenza evolution. PMID:27430528

  1. Influenza and Memory T Cells: How to Awake the Force

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spitaels, Jan; Roose, Kenny; Saelens, Xavier

    2016-01-01

    Annual influenza vaccination is an effective way to prevent human influenza. Current vaccines are mainly focused on eliciting a strain-matched humoral immune response, requiring yearly updates, and do not provide protection for all vaccinated individuals. The past few years, the importance of cellular immunity, and especially memory T cells, in long-lived protection against influenza virus has become clear. To overcome the shortcomings of current influenza vaccines, eliciting both humoral and cellular immunity is imperative. Today, several new vaccines such as infection-permissive and recombinant T cell inducing vaccines, are being developed and show promising results. These vaccines will allow us to stay several steps ahead of the constantly evolving influenza virus. PMID:27754364

  2. Influenza Vaccination in Patients with Common Variable Immunodeficiency (CVID).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mieves, Jan F; Wittke, Kirsten; Freitag, Helma; Volk, Hans-Dieter; Scheibenbogen, Carmen; Hanitsch, Leif G

    2017-10-05

    Vaccination against influenza in patients with primary antibody deficiency is recommended. Common variable immunodeficiency (CVID) is the most frequent and clinically relevant antibody deficiency disease and is by definition characterized by an impaired vaccination response. The purpose of this review is to present the current knowledge of humoral and cellular vaccine response to influenza in CVID patients. Studies conducted in CVID patients demonstrated an impaired humoral response upon influenza vaccination. Data on cellular immune response are in part conflicting, with two out of three studies showing responses similar to healthy controls. Available data suggest a benefit from influenza vaccination in CVID patients. Therefore, annual influenza vaccination in patients and their close household contacts is recommended.

  3. Influenza A/H1N1 2009 pandemic and respiratory virus infections, Beijing, 2009-2010.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yaowu Yang

    Full Text Available To determine the role of the pandemic influenza A/H1N1 2009 (A/H1N1 2009pdm in acute respiratory tract infections (ARTIs and its impact on the epidemic of seasonal influenza viruses and other common respiratory viruses, nasal and throat swabs taken from 7,776 patients with suspected viral ARTIs from 2006 through 2010 in Beijing, China were screened by real-time PCR for influenza virus typing and subtyping and by multiplex or single PCR tests for other common respiratory viruses. We observed a distinctive dual peak pattern of influenza epidemic during the A/H1N1 2009pdm in Beijing, China, which was formed by the A/H1N1 2009pdm, and a subsequent influenza B epidemic in year 2009/2010. Our analysis also shows a small peak formed by a seasonal H3N2 epidemic prior to the A/H1N1 2009pdm peak. Parallel detection of multiple respiratory viruses shows that the epidemic of common respiratory viruses, except human rhinovirus, was delayed during the pandemic of the A/H1N1 2009pdm. The H1N1 2009pdm mainly caused upper respiratory tract infections in the sampled patients; patients infected with H1N1 2009pdm had a higher percentage of cough than those infected with seasonal influenza or other respiratory viruses. Our findings indicate that A/H1N1 2009pdm and other respiratory viruses except human rhinovirus could interfere with each other during their transmission between human beings. Understanding the mechanisms and effects of such interference is needed for effective control of future influenza epidemics.

  4. Influenza (Flu) Viruses

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... and antigenic shift. Transmission of Influenza Viruses from Animals to People Influenza A viruses also are found in many different animals, including ducks, chickens, pigs, whales, horses and seals. ...

  5. Haemophilus Influenzae Type b

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Text Size Email Print Share Haemophilus Influenzae type b Page Content Article Body If you’re like ... may have been unfamiliar with Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib) infections until your pediatrician recommended a vaccine ...

  6. A qualitative study of the coverage of influenza vaccination on Dutch news sites and social media websites.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lehmann, Birthe A; Ruiter, Robert A C; Kok, Gerjo

    2013-06-05

    Information about influenza and the effectiveness of vaccination against influenza is largely available on the Internet, and may influence individual decision making about participation in future influenza vaccination rounds. E-health information has often been found to be inaccurate, or even to contradict Health Authority recommendations, especially when it concerns controversial topics. By means of an online media monitoring programme, Dutch news sites and social media websites were scanned for the Dutch counterparts of the terms influenza, vaccination, vaccine and epidemic during February, March and April 2012. Data were processed with QSR NVivo 8.0 and analysed using a general inductive approach. Three overarching themes were found in both media sources: (1) the (upcoming) influenza epidemic, (2) general information regarding the virus, its prevention and treatment, and (3) uncertainty and mistrust regarding influenza vaccination. Social media tended to report earlier on developments such as the occurrence of an influenza epidemic. The greatest difference was that in social media, influenza was not considered to be a serious disease, and more opposition to the flu shot was expressed in social media, as compared to news media. News media and social media discussed the same topics regarding influenza, but differed in message tone. Whereas news media reports tended to be more objective and non-judgmental, social media more critically evaluated the harmfulness of influenza and the necessity of the flu shot. Media may influence decision making and behaviours of Internet users and may thereby influence the success of vaccination campaigns and recommendations made by health authorities. Social media may be more of a problem in this sense, since it is neither controlled nor censored. Future research should investigate the actual impact of Internet media on the influenza decision making process of its users.

  7. Epidemic cholera spreads like wildfire

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roy, Manojit; Zinck, Richard D.; Bouma, Menno J.; Pascual, Mercedes

    2014-01-01

    Cholera is on the rise globally, especially epidemic cholera which is characterized by intermittent and unpredictable outbreaks that punctuate periods of regional disease fade-out. These epidemic dynamics remain however poorly understood. Here we examine records for epidemic cholera over both contemporary and historical timelines, from Africa (1990-2006) and former British India (1882-1939). We find that the frequency distribution of outbreak size is fat-tailed, scaling approximately as a power-law. This pattern which shows strong parallels with wildfires is incompatible with existing cholera models developed for endemic regions, as it implies a fundamental role for stochastic transmission and local depletion of susceptible hosts. Application of a recently developed forest-fire model indicates that epidemic cholera dynamics are located above a critical phase transition and propagate in similar ways to aggressive wildfires. These findings have implications for the effectiveness of control measures and the mechanisms that ultimately limit the size of outbreaks.

  8. Leveraging social networks for understanding the evolution of epidemics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martín Gonzalo

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background To understand how infectious agents disseminate throughout a population it is essential to capture the social model in a realistic manner. This paper presents a novel approach to modeling the propagation of the influenza virus throughout a realistic interconnection network based on actual individual interactions which we extract from online social networks. The advantage is that these networks can be extracted from existing sources which faithfully record interactions between people in their natural environment. We additionally allow modeling the characteristics of each individual as well as customizing his daily interaction patterns by making them time-dependent. Our purpose is to understand how the infection spreads depending on the structure of the contact network and the individuals who introduce the infection in the population. This would help public health authorities to respond more efficiently to epidemics. Results We implement a scalable, fully distributed simulator and validate the epidemic model by comparing the simulation results against the data in the 2004-2005 New York State Department of Health Report (NYSDOH, with similar temporal distribution results for the number of infected individuals. We analyze the impact of different types of connection models on the virus propagation. Lastly, we analyze and compare the effects of adopting several different vaccination policies, some of them based on individual characteristics -such as age- while others targeting the super-connectors in the social model. Conclusions This paper presents an approach to modeling the propagation of the influenza virus via a realistic social model based on actual individual interactions extracted from online social networks. We implemented a scalable, fully distributed simulator and we analyzed both the dissemination of the infection and the effect of different vaccination policies on the progress of the epidemics. The epidemic values

  9. Virological surveillance of influenza-like illness among children in Ghana, 2008-2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonney, Joseph H K; Kronmann, Karl C; Lindan, Christina P; Asante, Ivy A; Parbie, Prince; Aboagye, James; Amankwah, Joseph; Odoom, John Kofi; Adjabeng, Michael; Nzussouo, Ndahwouh Talla; Ahadzie, Lawson; Barthel, Robert Vince; Cornelius, Clair; Amofah, George; Oyofo, Buhari; Ampofo, William K

    2012-12-15

    The global annual attack rate for influenza is estimated to be 10%-20% in children, although limited information exists for Africa. In 2007, Ghana initiated influenza surveillance by routine monitoring of acute respiratory illness to obtain data on circulating strains. We describe influenza surveillance in children <11 years old who had influenza-like illness (ILI) from January 2008 to December 2010. Oropharyngeal swabs from pediatric outpatients with ILI attending any of 22 health facilities across the country were submitted. We tested swabs for influenza virus using molecular assays, virus isolation, and hemagglutination assays. Of the 2810 swabs, 636 (23%) were positive for influenza virus. The percentage of positives by gender was similar. The proportion of ILI cases positive for influenza increased with age from 11% (31/275) in infants (aged 0-1 years) to 31% (377/1219) among children aged 5-10 years (P < .001). The majority of cases were influenza A (90%), of which 60% were influenza A(H1N1)pdm09. In all 3 years, influenza activity appeared slightly higher during May through July. During the 3 years of influenza surveillance in Ghana, children aged <11 years bore a high burden of influenza-associated ILI.

  10. Progress toward the development of universal influenza vaccines.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoft, Daniel F; Belshe, Robert B

    2014-01-01

    Influenza remains a major problem causing significant morbidity and mortality annually and periodic pandemics with the potential for 10-100 fold increased mortality. Conventional vaccines can be highly effective if generated each year to match currently circulating viruses. Ongoing research focuses on producing cross-protective vaccines that induce T cell and/ or antibody responses specific for highly conserved viral epitopes. The Saint Louis University Center for Vaccine Development (SLUCVD) is highly engaged in multiple efforts to generate universally relevant influenza vaccines.

  11. Defective RNA sensing by RIG-I in severe influenza virus infection

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, Sofie Eg; Christiansen, Mette; Ryø, Laura Barrett

    2018-01-01

    Influenza virus infection causes worldwide seasonal epidemics. Although influenza usually is a mild disease, a minority of patients experience very severe fulminating disease courses. Previous studies have demonstrated a role for type I interferon (IFN) in antiviral responses during influenza...... and p.P885S, located in the CARD and RNA binding domains, respectively, of DDX58 encoding the RNA sensor RIG-I. These variants significantly impair the signaling activity of RIG-I. Similarly, patient cells demonstrate decreased antiviral responses to RIG-I ligands as well as increased pro...

  12. Avian Influenza in Birds

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... However, some ducks can be infected without any signs of illness. Top of Page Avian Influenza in Wild Birds Avian influenza A viruses have ... hours. Some ducks can be infected without any signs of illness. Avian influenza outbreaks are of concern in domesticated birds for ...

  13. Humoral antibody response after receipt of inactivated seasonal influenza vaccinations one year apart in children

    OpenAIRE

    Fang, VJ; Ip, DKM; Ng, S; Chiu, SS; Cowling, BJ; Leung, GM; Peiris, JSM

    2012-01-01

    Background: Annual vaccination against seasonal influenza viruses is recommended for school-age children in some countries. There are limited data on the immunogenicity and efficacy of repeated influenza vaccinations. Methods: In a randomized controlled trial, we administered seasonal trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine (TIV) or placebo to 64 children 6-15 years of age in two consecutive years and explored their humoral antibody responses. Results: Receipt of TIV in the first year was ass...

  14. Influenza and other respiratory viruses detected by influenza-like illness surveillance in Leyte Island, the Philippines, 2010-2013.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hirono Otomaru

    Full Text Available This study aimed to determine the role of influenza-like illness (ILI surveillance conducted on Leyte Island, the Philippines, including involvement of other respiratory viruses, from 2010 to 2013. ILI surveillance was conducted from January 2010 to March 2013 with 3 sentinel sites located in Tacloban city, Palo and Tanauan of Leyte Island. ILI was defined as fever ≥38°C or feverish feeling and either cough or running nose in a patient of any age. Influenza virus and other 5 respiratory viruses were searched. A total of 5,550 ILI cases visited the 3 sites and specimens were collected from 2,031 (36.6% cases. Among the cases sampled, 1,637 (75.6% were children aged <5 years. 874 (43.0% cases were positive for at least one of the respiratory viruses tested. Influenza virus and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV were predominantly detected (both were 25.7% followed by human rhinovirus (HRV (17.5%. The age distributions were significantly different between those who were positive for influenza, HRV, and RSV. ILI cases were reported throughout the year and influenza virus was co-detected with those viruses on approximately half of the weeks of study period (RSV in 60.5% and HRV 47.4%. In terms of clinical manifestations, only the rates of headache and sore throat were significantly higher in influenza positive cases than cases positive to other viruses. In conclusion, syndromic ILI surveillance in this area is difficult to detect the start of influenza epidemic without laboratory confirmation which requires huge resources. Age was an important factor that affected positive rates of influenza and other respiratory viruses. Involvement of older age children may be useful to detect influenza more effectively.

  15. [Needs on information related to influenza pandemic by the public].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hao, Ai-hua; Cai, Yan-shan; Feng, Wen-ru; Wang, Ming

    2009-11-01

    To understand the information needs on human infection with avian influenza (H5N1), A (H1N1) and influenza pandemic in different time periods and create well-targeted messages by the public, so as to develop communication with the public effectively when human infection with avian influenza (H5N1), A (H1N1) and influenza pandemic occur. Data were collected through questionnaire over telephone calls. The questionnaire was self-designed, revised after pilot testing. The effective response rate in this telephone survey was 54.33%, higher than those in Beijing and Shanghai. The respondents felt that government's propaganda during the influenza virus-active period was more helpful and instructive than those in the period when influenza was relatively inactive (chi(2) = 17.41, P = 0.000). Trust to the government by the public was higher in the influenza virus-active than in the relatively inactive period (chi(2) = 8.15, P = 0.004). As to the information needs, the respondents reflected that during the time period of relative influenza inactivity, they viewed the basic knowledge of human infection with avian influenza (H5N1) as their top priority, while in the influenza virus-active period, the feasible preventive measures was their top priority. The pandemic-related information needs in the influenza virus-active period and in the time period of relative influenza inactivity were similar, demonstrating that the respondents had no perceptual knowledge of influenza pandemic and had poor awareness on the pandemic. The respondents were not used to wear a mask to cover their mouths and noses when sneezing, but were quite knowledgeable about the following preventive measures as: avoid going out and at the crowded areas, wash hands frequently etc. Around 2% to 6% of the respondents did not have any information needs. The response rate in this telephone survey was fairly high, indicating that telephone survey was well accepted by Guangzhou residents. The public was satisfied

  16. Anti-influenza activity of marchantins, macrocyclic bisbibenzyls contained in liverworts.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuma Iwai

    Full Text Available The H1N1 influenza A virus of swine-origin caused pandemics throughout the world in 2009 and the highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza virus has also caused epidemics in Southeast Asia in recent years. The threat of influenza A thus remains a serious global health issue and novel drugs that target these viruses are highly desirable. Influenza A possesses an endonuclease within its RNA polymerase which comprises PA, PB1 and PB2 subunits. To identify potential new anti-influenza compounds in our current study, we screened 33 different types of phytochemicals using a PA endonuclease inhibition assay in vitro and an anti-influenza A virus assay. The marchantins are macrocyclic bisbibenzyls found in liverworts, and plagiochin A and perrottetin F are marchantin-related phytochemicals. We found from our screen that marchantin A, B, E, plagiochin A and perrottetin F inhibit influenza PA endonuclease activity in vitro. These compounds have a 3,4-dihydroxyphenethyl group in common, indicating the importance of this moiety for the inhibition of PA endonuclease. Docking simulations of marchantin E with PA endonuclease suggest a putative "fitting and chelating model" as the mechanism underlying PA endonuclease inhibition. The docking amino acids are well conserved between influenza A and B. In a cultured cell system, marchantin E was further found to inhibit the growth of both H3N2 and H1N1 influenza A viruses, and marchantin A, E and perrotein F showed inhibitory properties towards the growth of influenza B. These marchantins also decreased the viral infectivity titer, with marchantin E showing the strongest activity in this assay. We additionally identified a chemical group that is conserved among different anti-influenza chemicals including marchantins, green tea catechins and dihydroxy phenethylphenylphthalimides. Our present results indicate that marchantins are candidate anti-influenza drugs and demonstrate the utility of the PA endonuclease assay in

  17. Effectiveness of the 2013 and 2014 Southern Hemisphere Influenza Vaccines Against Laboratory-Confirmed Influenza in Young Children Using a Test-Negative Design, Bangkok, Thailand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kittikraisak, Wanitchaya; Suntarattiwong, Piyarat; Ditsungnoen, Darunee; Klungthong, Chonticha; Fernandez, Stefan; Yoon, In-Kyu; Lindblade, Kim; Dawood, Fatimah S.; Olsen, Sonja J.; Chotpitayasunondh, Tawee

    2016-01-01

    Background The Thai Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices recommends annual influenza vaccination for children six months through two years of age, although older children may be vaccinated on request. We evaluated effectiveness of the 2013 and 2014 inactivated influenza vaccines to reduce medically-attended laboratory-confirmed influenza illness among Thai children aged 7–60 months. Methods From September 2013–May 2015, children with influenza-like illness (ILI) were screened with a rapid influenza diagnostic test. Enrolled children had nasal and throat swabs tested for influenza viruses using polymerase chain reaction (PCR). Cases and controls were subjects testing positive and negative, respectively, for influenza viruses by PCR. Vaccination status was ascertained from vaccination cards. Vaccine effectiveness (VE) was calculated as 100%*(1−odds ratio of vaccination among cases versus controls). Results Of 1,377 children enrolled, cases (n=490) and controls (n=887) were similar in demographic characteristics. Cases were less likely to receive influenza vaccine than controls in 2013 (6% vs. 14%; p=0.02), but not in 2014 (6% vs. 7%; p=0.57). Among cases, 126 (26%) were positive for influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus, 239 (49%) for influenza A(H3N2) and 124 (25%) for influenza B. One specimen was positive for both influenza A(H3N2) and B viruses. VE for full vaccination against all viruses was 64% (95% confidence interval [CI], 21%, 84%) in 2013 and 26% (95% CI, −47%, 63%) in 2014. Conclusions Influenza vaccination was low among Thai children in our study, and VE varied by year, highlighting the need for annual monitoring of VE to better understand vaccine program effectiveness. PMID:27307102

  18. Rapid typing of influenza viruses using super high-speed quantitative real-time PCR.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sakurai, Akira; Nomura, Namiko; Nanba, Reiko; Sinkai, Takayuki; Iwaki, Tsunehito; Obayashi, Taminori; Hashimoto, Kazuhiro; Hasegawa, Michiya; Sakoda, Yoshihiro; Naito, Akihiro; Morizane, Yoshihito; Hosaka, Mitsugu; Tsuboi, Kunio; Kida, Hiroshi; Kai, Akemi; Shibasaki, Futoshi

    2011-12-01

    The development of a rapid and sensitive system for detecting influenza viruses is a high priority for controlling future epidemics and pandemics. Quantitative real-time PCR is often used for detecting various kinds of viruses; however, it requires more than 2h per run. Detection assays were performed with super high-speed RT-PCR (SHRT-PCR) developed according to a newly designed heating system. The new method uses a high-speed reaction (18s/cycle; 40 cycles in less than 20min) for typing influenza viruses. The detection limit of SHRT-PCR was 1 copy/reaction and 10(-1) plaque-forming unit/reaction for viruses in culture supernatants during 20min. Using SHRT-PCR, 86 strains of influenza viruses isolated by the Tokyo Metropolitan Institute of Public Health were tested; the results showed 100% sensitivity and specificity for each influenza A and B virus, and swine-origin influenza virus. Twenty-seven swabs collected from the pharyngeal mucosa of outpatients were also tested, showing positive signs for influenza virus on an immunochromatographic assay; the results between SHRT-PCR and immunochromatography exhibited 100% agreement for both positive and negative results. The rapid reaction time and high sensitivity of SHRT-PCR makes this technique well suited for monitoring epidemics and pre-pandemic influenza outbreaks. Copyright © 2011. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  19. The ghost of pandemics past: revisiting two centuries of influenza in Sweden.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holmberg, Martin

    2017-09-01

    Previous influenza pandemics are usually invoked in pandemic preparedness planning without a thorough analysis of the events surrounding them, what has been called the 'configuration' of epidemics. Historic pandemics are instead used to contrast them to the novelty of the coming imagined plague or as fear of a ghost-like repetition of the past. This view of pandemics is guided by a biomedical framework that is ahistorical and reductionist. The meaning of 'pandemic' influenza is in fact highly ambiguous in its partitioning of pandemic and seasonal influenza. The past 200 years of influenza epidemics in Sweden are examined with a special focus on key social structures-households, schools, transportations and the military. These are shown to have influenced the progression of influenza pandemics. Prevailing beliefs around influenza pandemics have also profoundly influenced intervention strategies. Measuring long-term trends in pandemic severity is problematic because pandemics are non-linear events where the conditions surrounding them constantly change. However, in a linearised view, the Spanish flu can be seen to represent a historical turning point and the H1N1 2009 pandemic not as an outlier, but following a 100-year trend of decreasing severity. Integrating seasonal and pandemic influenza, and adopting an ecosocial stance can deepen our understanding and bring the ghost-like pandemic past to life. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

  20. Antiviral activity of formyl peptide receptor 2 antagonists against influenza viruses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Courtin, Noémie; Fotso, Aurélien Fotso; Fautrad, Pierre; Mas, Floriane; Alessi, Marie-Christine; Riteau, Béatrice

    2017-07-01

    Influenza viruses are one of the most important respiratory pathogens worldwide, causing both epidemic and pandemic infections. The aim of the study was to evaluate the effect of FPR2 antagonists PBP10 and BOC2 on influenza virus replication. We determined that these molecules exhibit antiviral effects against influenza A (H1N1, H3N2, H6N2) and B viruses. FPR2 antagonists used in combination with oseltamivir showed additive antiviral effects. Mechanistically, the antiviral effect of PBP10 and BOC2 is mediated through early inhibition of virus-induced ERK activation. Finally, our preclinical studies showed that FPR2 antagonists protected mice from lethal infections induced by influenza, both in a prophylactic and therapeutic manner. Thus, FPR2 antagonists might be explored for novel treatments against influenza. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  1. Experiences with influenza-like illness and attitudes regarding influenza prevention--United States, 2003-04 influenza season.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2004-12-17

    Despite advances in medical treatment, influenza results in approximately 36,000 deaths each year in the United States. Vaccination has been a mainstay of influenza prevention, with annual vaccination recommended for adults and children at high risk; efforts to interrupt person-to-person transmission are also important. In October 2003, CDC recommended that health-care facilities implement a Universal Respiratory Hygiene Strategy, including providing masks or facial tissues in waiting rooms to persons with respiratory symptoms. To gather information on influenza-like illness (ILI) and attitudes regarding prevention of ILI (including use of vaccine and respiratory hygiene), CDC and 11 Emerging Infections Programs (EIPs) conducted a random-digit-dialed telephone survey of noninstitutionalized U.S. civilian adults in February 2004. This report summarizes the results of that survey, which determined that 43% of adults and 69% of children aged 6 months-17 years with ILI visited a health-care provider for the illness. Eight percent of adults with ILI reported having been asked by a health-care provider to wear a mask; 82% said they would wear a mask if requested. With the limited availability of influenza vaccine this season, the use of masks by persons with cough illnesses in health-care settings, a component of the Universal Respiratory Hygiene Strategy, might be a helpful and acceptable method for decreasing influenza transmission.

  2. Influenza virus neuraminidase (NA): a target for antivirals and vaccines.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jagadesh, Anitha; Salam, Abdul Ajees Abdul; Mudgal, Piya Paul; Arunkumar, Govindakarnavar

    2016-08-01

    Influenza, the most common infectious disease, poses a great threat to human health because of its highly contagious nature and fast transmissibility, often leading to high morbidity and mortality. Effective vaccination strategies may aid in the prevention and control of recurring epidemics and pandemics associated with this infectious disease. However, antigenic shifts and drifts are major concerns with influenza virus, requiring effective global monitoring and updating of vaccines. Current vaccines are standardized primarily based on the amount of hemagglutinin, a major surface antigen, which chiefly constitutes these preparations along with the varying amounts of neuraminidase (NA). Anti-influenza drugs targeting the active site of NA have been in use for more than a decade now. However, NA has not been approved as an effective antigenic component of the influenza vaccine because of standardization issues. Although some studies have suggested that NA antibodies are able to reduce the severity of the disease and induce a long-term and cross-protective immunity, a few major scientific issues need to be addressed prior to launching NA-based vaccines. Interestingly, an increasing number of studies have shown NA to be a promising target for future influenza vaccines. This review is an attempt to consolidate studies that reflect the strength of NA as a suitable vaccine target. The studies discussed in this article highlight NA as a potential influenza vaccine candidate and support taking the process of developing NA vaccines to the next stage.

  3. Family functioning and stress as predictors of influenza B infection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clover, R D; Abell, T; Becker, L A; Crawford, S; Ramsey, C N

    1989-05-01

    A prospective cohort study was designed to study the effects of family functioning and stress on the incidence of influenza infection. Families from the clinic roster, containing two adults and at least one child between the ages of 1 and 18 years, were asked to participate. Baseline (pre-influenza) data included a serum determination for influenza A and B antibodies, family functioning as measured by the Family Adaptability and Cohesion Evaluation Scales (FACES) II and the Family APGAR, and parental stress as measured by the social readjustment rating scale (SRRS). During the study all family members of patients with upper respiratory tract infection symptoms or fever were seen, and throat swabs were obtained for viral culture. Approximately 2 weeks after the influenza epidemic ended (March 1984), sera for antibodies were again collected on all family members. Chi-square analysis showed that infection (defined as a fourfold titer rise or a positive viral throat culture) was significantly associated with both cohesion and adaptability as measured by FACES II. Neither the Family APGAR nor the SRRS was associated with influenza B infection. It was concluded that family functioning affects the frequency of influenza B infection within families. This finding raises the possibility that family dysfunction may lead to altered immune responses, which increases susceptibility to infection.

  4. Early detection of influenza like illness through medication sales.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Socan, Maja; Erculj, Vanja; Lajovic, Jaro

    2012-06-01

    Monitoring sales of medications is a potential candidate for an early signal of a seasonal influenza epidemic. To test this theory, the data from a traditional, consultation-oriented influenza surveillance system were compared to medication sales and a predictive model was developed. Weekly influenza-like incidence rates from the National Influenza Sentinel Surveillance System were compared to sales of seven groups of medications (nasal decongestants, medicines for sore throat (MST), antitussives, mucolytics, analgo-antipyretics, non-steroidal anti-inflamatory drugs (NSAIDs), betalactam antibiotics, and macrolide antibiotics) to determine the correlation of medication sales with the sentinel surveillance system - and therefore their predictive power. Poisson regression and regression tree approaches were used in the statistical analyses. The fact that NSAIDs do not exhibit any seasonality and that prescription of antibiotics requires a visit to the doctor's office makes the two medication groups inappropriate for predictive purposes. The influenza-like illness (ILI) curve is the best matched by the mucolytics and antitussives sales curves. Distinct seasonality is also observed with MST and decongestants. The model including these four medication groups performed best in prediction of ILI incidence rate using the Poisson regression model. Sales of antitussives proved to be the best single predictive variable for regression tree model. Sales of medication groups included in the model were demonstrated to have a predictive potential for early detection of influenza season. The quantitative information on medication sales proves to be a useful supplementary system, complementing the traditional consultation-oriented surveillance system.

  5. Is sunspot activity a factor in influenza pandemics?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qu, Jiangwen

    2016-09-01

    The 2009 AH1N1 pandemic became a global health concern, although fortunately, its worst anticipated effects were not realised. While the origins of such outbreaks remain poorly understood, it is very important to identify the precipitating factors in their emergence so that future pandemics can be detected as quickly as possible. Methords: Descriptive epidemiology was used to analyse the association between influenza pandemics and possible pandemics and relative number of sunspots. Non-conditional logistic regression was performed to analyse the statistical association between sunspot extremes and influenza pandemics to within plus or minus 1 year. Almost all recorded influenza/possible pandemics have occurred in time frames corresponding to sunspot extremes, or +/- 1 year within such extremes. These periods were identified as important risk factors in both possible and confirmed influenza pandemics (odds ratio: 3.87; 95% confidence interval: 1.08 to 13.85). Extremes of sunspot activity to within plus or minus 1 year may precipitate influenza pandemics. Mechanisms of epidemic initiation and early spread are discussed including primary causation by externally derived viral variants (from space via cometary dust). Efforts to construct a comprehensive early warning system for potential influenza and other viral pandemics that include analysis of sunspot activity and stratospheric sampling for viral variants should be supported. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  6. Epitope-based approaches to a universal influenza vaccine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gottlieb, Tanya; Ben-Yedidia, Tamar

    2014-11-01

    The development of vaccines has been one of the most important contributions of immunology to public health to date. Although several infectious diseases have all but vanished thanks to effective vaccines, the most common infectious disease, influenza, still represents a major threat to public health. This is more concerning than ever before in light of potentially virulent avian pandemic strains which have emerged in the last decade and infected human hosts, causing high morbidity and mortality. Despite considerable efforts to improve production of influenza vaccines and vaccinate large portions of the population annually, the currently available influenza vaccines are strain-specific and not effective enough. Considering the vulnerability of infants and elderly to seasonal influenza-related complications and the ever present public health threat of a deadly influenza pandemic, there is urgent need for a new kind of influenza vaccine. Ideally, such a vaccine should provide enhanced long term, multi-strain protection without compromising safety and in this way, dramatically improve global protection against seasonal and pandemic influenza viruses. This review highlights one approach to developing a universal influenza vaccine, which is based on highly conserved viral sequences, 'epitopes', that specifically activate humoral and/or cellular immune responses. This approach to vaccinology was pioneered by Prof Arnon, who initiated development of an epitope-based universal vaccine called Multimeric-001 (M-001), which has already been validated in clinical trials to induce broad immunity against A and B-Type, seasonal and pandemic strains. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Influenza Vaccination Coverage Among Health Care Personnel - United States, 2016-17 Influenza Season.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Black, Carla L; Yue, Xin; Ball, Sarah W; Fink, Rebecca; de Perio, Marie A; Laney, A Scott; Williams, Walter W; Lindley, Megan C; Graitcer, Samuel B; Lu, Peng-Jun; Devlin, Rebecca; Greby, Stacie M

    2017-09-29

    The Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) recommends that all health care personnel (HCP) receive an annual influenza vaccination to reduce influenza-related morbidity and mortality among HCP and their patients and to reduce absenteeism among HCP (1-4). To estimate influenza vaccination coverage among HCP in the United States during the 2016-17 influenza season, CDC conducted an opt-in Internet panel survey of 2,438 HCP. Overall, 78.6% of survey respondents reported receiving vaccination during the 2016-17 season, similar to reported coverage in the previous three influenza seasons (5). Vaccination coverage continued to be higher among HCP working in hospitals (92.3%) and lower among HCP working in ambulatory (76.1%) and long-term care (LTC) (68.0%) settings. As in previous seasons, coverage was highest among HCP who were required by their employer to be vaccinated (96.7%) and lowest among HCP working in settings where vaccination was not required, promoted, or offered on-site (45.8%). Implementing workplace strategies found to improve vaccination coverage among HCP, including vaccination requirements or active promotion of on-site vaccinations at no cost, can help ensure that HCP and patients are protected against influenza (6).

  8. Development of a stable liquid formulation of live attenuated influenza vaccine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, Jessica A; Estrada, Marcus; Flood, E Alexander; Mahmood, Kutub; Dhere, Rajeev; Chen, Dexiang

    2016-07-12

    Vaccination is the most effective means of preventing influenza. However, the cost of producing annual seasonal influenza vaccines puts them out of reach for most developing countries. While live attenuated influenza vaccines are among the most efficacious and can be manufactured at low cost, they may require lyophilization to be stable enough for developing-country use, which adds a significant cost burden. The development of a liquid live attenuated seasonal influenza vaccine that is stable for around a year-the duration of an annual influenza season-would significantly improve not only the production output but also the use and accessibility of influenza vaccines in low-resource settings. In this study, potential stabilizing excipients were screened and optimized using the least stable influenza vaccine strain presently known, H1N1 (A/California/07/2009), as a model. The stability-conferring properties of the lead formulations were also tested with a Type B strain of influenza virus (B/Brisbane/60/2008). Stability was also evaluated with higher titers of influenza virus and exposure to agitation and freeze-thaw stresses to further confirm the stability of the lead formulations. Through this process, we identified a liquid formulation consisting of sucrose phosphate glutamate buffer with 1% arginine and 0.5% recombinant human serum albumin that provided storage stability of one year at 2-8°C for the influenza A and B strains tested. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  9. Cold adaptation generates mutations associated with the growth of influenza B vaccine viruses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Hyunsuh; Velkov, Tony; Camuglia, Sarina; Rockman, Steven P; Tannock, Gregory A

    2015-10-26

    Seasonal inactivated influenza vaccines are usually trivalent or quadrivalent and are prepared from accredited seed viruses. Yields of influenza A seed viruses can be enhanced by gene reassortment with high-yielding donor strains, but similar approaches for influenza B seed viruses have been largely unsuccessful. For vaccine manufacture influenza B seed viruses are usually adapted for high-growth by serial passage. Influenza B antigen yields so obtained are often unpredictable and selection of influenza B seed viruses by this method can be a rate-limiting step in seasonal influenza vaccine manufacture. We recently have shown that selection of stable cold-adapted mutants from seasonal epidemic influenza B viruses is associated with improved growth. In this study, specific mutations were identified that were responsible for growth enhancement as a consequence of adaptation to growth at lower temperatures. Molecular analysis revealed that the following mutations in the HA, NP and NA genes are required for enhanced viral growth: G156/N160 in the HA, E253, G375 in the NP and T146 in the NA genes. These results demonstrate that the growth of seasonal influenza B viruses can be optimized or improved significantly by specific gene modifications. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Epidemics and the politics of knowledge: contested narratives in Egypt's H1N1 response.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leach, Melissa; Tadros, Mariz

    2014-01-01

    This article explores the politics of knowledge involved in understanding and responding to epidemics in an era of global health governance and biosecurity. It develops and applies an approach focused on how multiple, competing narratives about epidemics are constructed, mobilized and interact, and selectively justify pathways of intervention and response. A detailed ethnographic case study of national and local responses to H1N1 influenza, so-called swine flu, in Egypt reveals how global narratives were reworked by powerful actors in a particular political context, suppressing and delegitimizing the alternative narratives of the Zabaleen (Coptic Christian) people whose lives and livelihoods centered on raising pigs and working with them to control urban waste. The case study illustrates important ways in which geographies and politics of blame around epidemics emerge and are justified, their political contexts and consequences, and how they may feed back to shape the dynamics of disease itself.

  11. Psychosocial Correlates of Intention to Receive an Influenza Vaccination among Rural Adolescents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Painter, Julia E.; Sales, Jessica M.; Pazol, Karen; Wingood, Gina M.; Windle, Michael; Orenstein, Walter A.; Diclemente, Ralph J.

    2010-01-01

    The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices recently expanded annual influenza vaccination recommendations to include all children 6 months through 18 years of age. Adolescent attitudes toward influenza vaccination may play a key role in reaching this newly added age group. This study examined the…

  12. School-Located Influenza Vaccination and Absenteeism among Elementary School Students in a Hispanic Community

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keck, Patricia C.; Ynalvez, Marcus Antonius; Gonzalez, Hector F.; Castillo, Keila D.

    2013-01-01

    Seasonal influenza is recognized as a significant health burden to children and is a cause of excess school absenteeism in children. In 2008, the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices recommended annual influenza vaccination for all children 6 months to 18 years of age. School nurses influence participation in this recommendation by…

  13. Early and Real-Time Detection of Seasonal Influenza Onset

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marques-Pita, Manuel

    2017-01-01

    Every year, influenza epidemics affect millions of people and place a strong burden on health care services. A timely knowledge of the onset of the epidemic could allow these services to prepare for the peak. We present a method that can reliably identify and signal the influenza outbreak. By combining official Influenza-Like Illness (ILI) incidence rates, searches for ILI-related terms on Google, and an on-call triage phone service, Saúde 24, we were able to identify the beginning of the flu season in 8 European countries, anticipating current official alerts by several weeks. This work shows that it is possible to detect and consistently anticipate the onset of the flu season, in real-time, regardless of the amplitude of the epidemic, with obvious advantages for health care authorities. We also show that the method is not limited to one country, specific region or language, and that it provides a simple and reliable signal that can be used in early detection of other seasonal diseases. PMID:28158192

  14. Early and Real-Time Detection of Seasonal Influenza Onset.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miguel Won

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Every year, influenza epidemics affect millions of people and place a strong burden on health care services. A timely knowledge of the onset of the epidemic could allow these services to prepare for the peak. We present a method that can reliably identify and signal the influenza outbreak. By combining official Influenza-Like Illness (ILI incidence rates, searches for ILI-related terms on Google, and an on-call triage phone service, Saúde 24, we were able to identify the beginning of the flu season in 8 European countries, anticipating current official alerts by several weeks. This work shows that it is possible to detect and consistently anticipate the onset of the flu season, in real-time, regardless of the amplitude of the epidemic, with obvious advantages for health care authorities. We also show that the method is not limited to one country, specific region or language, and that it provides a simple and reliable signal that can be used in early detection of other seasonal diseases.

  15. Incidence, seasonality and mortality associated with influenza pneumonia in Thailand: 2005-2008.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James Mark Simmerman

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available Data on the incidence, seasonality and mortality associated with influenza in subtropical low and middle income countries are limited. Prospective data from multiple years are needed to develop vaccine policy and treatment guidelines, and improve pandemic preparedness.During January 2005 through December 2008, we used an active, population-based surveillance system to prospectively identify hospitalized pneumonia cases with influenza confirmed by reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction or cell culture in 20 hospitals in two provinces in Thailand. Age-specific incidence was calculated and extrapolated to estimate national annual influenza pneumonia hospital admissions and in-hospital deaths.Influenza was identified in 1,346 (10.4% of pneumonia patients of all ages, and 10 influenza pneumonia patients died while in the hospital. 702 (52% influenza pneumonia patients were less than 15 years of age. The average annual incidence of influenza pneumonia was greatest in children less than 5 years of age (236 per 100,000 and in those age 75 or older (375 per 100,000. During 2005, 2006 and 2008 influenza A virus detection among pneumonia cases peaked during June through October. In 2007 a sharp increase was observed during the months of January through April. Influenza B virus infections did not demonstrate a consistent seasonal pattern. Influenza pneumonia incidence was high in 2005, a year when influenza A(H3N2 subtype virus strains predominated, low in 2006 when A(H1N1 viruses were more common, moderate in 2007 when H3N2 and influenza B co-predominated, and high again in 2008 when influenza B viruses were most common. During 2005-2008, influenza pneumonia resulted in an estimated annual average 36,413 hospital admissions and 322 in-hospital pneumonia deaths in Thailand.Influenza virus infection is an important cause of hospitalized pneumonia in Thailand. Young children and the elderly are most affected and in-hospital deaths are more common

  16. Regional Level Influenza Study with Geo-Tagged Twitter Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Feng; Wang, Haiyan; Xu, Kuai; Raymond, Ross; Chon, Jaime; Fuller, Shaun; Debruyn, Anton

    2016-08-01

    The rich data generated and read by millions of users on social media tells what is happening in the real world in a rapid and accurate fashion. In recent years many researchers have explored real-time streaming data from Twitter for a broad range of applications, including predicting stock markets and public health trend. In this paper we design, implement, and evaluate a prototype system to collect and analyze influenza statuses over different geographical locations with real-time tweet streams. We investigate the correlation between the Twitter flu counts and the official statistics from the Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and discover that real-time tweet streams capture the dynamics of influenza cases at both national and regional level and could potentially serve as an early warning system of influenza epidemics. Furthermore, we propose a dynamic mathematical model which can forecast Twitter flu counts with high accuracy.

  17. Antibody responses to influenza viruses in paediatric patients and their contacts at the onset of the 2009 pandemic in Mexico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miranda-Novales, Guadalupe; Arriaga-Pizano, Lourdes; Herrera-Castillo, Cristina; Pastelin-Palacios, Rodolfo; Valero-Pacheco, Nuriban; Pérez-Toledo, Marisol; Ferat-Osorio, Eduardo; Solórzano-Santos, Fortino; Vázquez-Rosales, Guillermo; Espitia-Pinzón, Clara; Zamudio-Lugo, Irma; Meza-Chávez, Abigail; Klenerman, Paul; Isibasi, Armando; López-Macías, Constantino

    2015-03-15

    On April 2009, the Mexican Ministry of Health received notification of cases of severe pneumonia mostly affecting young healthy people; this was the beginning of the first influenza pandemic of the 21st century. The nature of the immune response to the influenza A(H1N1)2009 pandemic strain in Mexico at the beginning of the pandemic outbreak has not been completely defined. We describe the serological response to the 2009 pandemic influenza virus in paediatric patients with influenza-like illness, their household contacts (HHCs), and exposed health-care workers (HCWs) at the beginning of the pandemic outbreak in Mexico City. thirty pre-epidemic and 129 epidemic samples were collected and serum antibodies were measured against A(H1N1)2009 pandemic virus and two non-pandemic swine influenza viruses by an haemagglutination inhibition assay . 91% (29/32) of the convalescence samples from confirmed patients had an antibody titre ≥ 10 (GMT 25), 63% (41/65) of the HHCs (GMT 12), 41% of HCWs (GMT 6) and 13% (4/30) of pre-epidemic samples (GMT 6) for the pandemic influenza virus. Of the 32 confirmed cases, 60% had an antibody titre ≥ 40 for the pandemic strain, 53% for the A/swine/Iowa(H1N1) virus (GMT 62) and 43% for the A/swine/Texas(H3N2) virus (GMT 66). The antibody response to 2009 pandemic influenza virus was widespread in convalescence samples from patients with confirmed pandemic influenza infection but the GMT was below the protective titre. There was no evidence that antibodies to the swine influenza viruses had cross-protective effect against the 2009 pandemic influenza virus.

  18. Trends of influenza B during the 2010-2016 seasons in 2 regions of north and south Italy: The impact of the vaccine mismatch on influenza immunisation strategy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orsi, Andrea; Colomba, Giuseppina Maria Elena; Pojero, Fanny; Calamusa, Giuseppe; Alicino, Cristiano; Trucchi, Cecilia; Canepa, Paola; Ansaldi, Filippo; Vitale, Francesco; Tramuto, Fabio

    2018-03-04

    Influenza A and B viruses are responsible for respiratory infections, representing globally seasonal threats to human health. The 2 viral types often co-circulate and influenza B plays an important role in the spread of infection. A 6-year retrospective surveillance study was conducted between 2010 and 2016 in 2 large administrative regions of Italy, located in the north (Liguria) and in the south (Sicily) of the country, to describe the burden and epidemiology of both B/Victoria and B/Yamagata lineages in different healthcare settings. Influenza B viruses were detected in 5 of 6 seasonal outbreaks, exceeding influenza A during the season 2012-2013. Most of influenza B infections were found in children aged ≤ 14 y and significant differences were observed in the age-groups infected by the different lineages. B/Victoria strains prevailed in younger population than B/Yamagata, but also were more frequently found in the community setting. Conversely, B/Yamagata viruses were prevalent among hospitalized cases suggesting their potential role in the development of more severe disease. The relative proportions of viral lineages varied from year to year, resulting in different lineage-level mismatch for the B component of trivalent influenza vaccine. Our findings confirmed the need for continuous virological surveillance of seasonal epidemics and bring attention to the adoption of universal influenza immunization program in the childhood. The use of tetravalent vaccine formulations may be useful to improve the prevention and control of the influenza burden in general population.

  19. Interim estimates of the effectiveness of the influenza vaccine against A(H3N2 influenza in adults in South Korea, 2016-2017 season.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ji Yun Noh

    Full Text Available In the 2016-2017 season, the A(H3N2 influenza epidemic presented an unusual early peak pattern compared with past seasons in South Korea. The interim vaccine effectiveness (VE of influenza vaccination in preventing laboratory-confirmed influenza was estimated using test-negative design through the tertiary hospital-based influenza surveillance system in South Korea. From 1 September, 2016 to 7 January, 2017, adjusted VE of influenza vaccination in preventing laboratory-confirmed A(H3N2 was -52.1% (95% confidence interval [CI], -147.2 to 6.4; -70.0% (95% CI, -212.0 to 7.4 in 19-64 years and 4.3% (95% CI, -137.8 to 61.5 in the elderly. Circulating A(H3N2 viruses belonged to the three phylogenetic subclades of 3C.2a, differently to A/Hong Kong/4801/2014, the current vaccine strain. Amino acid substitutions in hemagglutinin of circulating viruses seem to contribute to low VE. In conclusion, interim VE analysis presented that the protection of laboratory-confirmed influenza by seasonal influenza vaccination did not show the statistical significance in South Korea in the 2016-2017 influenza season.

  20. Epidemic processes in complex networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pastor-Satorras, Romualdo; Castellano, Claudio; Van Mieghem, Piet; Vespignani, Alessandro

    2015-07-01

    In recent years the research community has accumulated overwhelming evidence for the emergence of complex and heterogeneous connectivity patterns in a wide range of biological and sociotechnical systems. The complex properties of real-world networks have a profound impact on the behavior of equilibrium and nonequilibrium phenomena occurring in various systems, and the study of epidemic spreading is central to our understanding of the unfolding of dynamical processes in complex networks. The theoretical analysis of epidemic spreading in heterogeneous networks requires the development of novel analytical frameworks, and it has produced results of conceptual and practical relevance. A coherent and comprehensive review of the vast research activity concerning epidemic processes is presented, detailing the successful theoretical approaches as well as making their limits and assumptions clear. Physicists, mathematicians, epidemiologists, computer, and social scientists share a common interest in studying epidemic spreading and rely on similar models for the description of the diffusion of pathogens, knowledge, and innovation. For this reason, while focusing on the main results and the paradigmatic models in infectious disease modeling, the major results concerning generalized social contagion processes are also presented. Finally, the research activity at the forefront in the study of epidemic spreading in coevolving, coupled, and time-varying networks is reported.

  1. Update on Influenza Diagnostics: Lessons from the Novel H1N1 Influenza A Pandemic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henrickson, Kelly J.

    2012-01-01

    Summary: The menu of diagnostic tools that can be utilized to establish a diagnosis of influenza is extensive and includes classic virology techniques as well as new and emerging methods. This review of how the various existing diagnostic methods have been utilized, first in the context of a rapidly evolving outbreak of novel influenza virus and then during the different subsequent phases and waves of the pandemic, demonstrates the unique roles, advantages, and limitations of each of these methods. Rapid antigen tests were used extensively throughout the pandemic. Recognition of the low negative predictive values of these tests is important. Private laboratories with preexisting expertise, infrastructure, and resources for rapid development, validation, and implementation of laboratory-developed assays played an unprecedented role in helping to meet the diagnostic demands during the pandemic. FDA-cleared assays remain an important element of the diagnostic armamentarium during a pandemic, and a process must be developed with the FDA to allow manufacturers to modify these assays for detection of novel strains in a timely fashion. The need and role for subtyping of influenza viruses and antiviral susceptibility testing will likely depend on qualitative (circulating subtypes and their resistance patterns) and quantitative (relative prevalence) characterization of influenza viruses circulating during future epidemics and pandemics. PMID:22491775

  2. Human mobility and the spatial transmission of influenza in the United States

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Charu, Vivek; Zeger, Scott; Gog, Julia

    2017-01-01

    Seasonal influenza epidemics offer unique opportunities to study the invasion and re-invasion waves of a pathogen in a partially immune population. Detailed patterns of spread remain elusive, however, due to lack of granular disease data. Here we model high-volume city-level medical claims data a...

  3. Modelling control of avian influenza in poultry: the link with data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jong, de M.C.M.; Hagenaars, T.H.J.

    2009-01-01

    In this paper the authors discuss the use of modelling in the evaluation of strategies designed to control epidemics of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in poultry. Referring to a number of published models for HPAI transmission in poultry, the authors describe the different ways that

  4. Avian influenza trasnmission risks: analysis of biosecuritiy measures and contact structure in Dutch poultry farming

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ssematimba, A.; Hagenaars, T.H.J.; Wit, de J.J.; Ruiterkamp, F.; Fabri, T.H.F.; Stegeman, J.A.; Jong, de M.C.M.

    2013-01-01

    In the 2003 epidemic of highly pathogenic avian influenza in Dutch poultry, between-farm virus transmission continued for considerable time despite control measures. Gaining more insight into the mechanisms of this spread is necessary for the possible development of better control strategies. We

  5. Seasonality of Influenza and Respiratory Syncytial Viruses and the Effect of Climate Factors in Subtropical-Tropical Asia Using Influenza-Like Illness Surveillance Data, 2010 -2012.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Taro Kamigaki

    Full Text Available The seasonality of influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV is well known, and many analyses have been conducted in temperate countries; however, this is still not well understood in tropical countries. Previous studies suggest that climate factors are involved in the seasonality of these viruses. However, the extent of the effect of each climate variable is yet to be defined.We investigated the pattern of seasonality and the effect of climate variables on influenza and RSV at three sites of different latitudes: the Eastern Visayas region and Baguio City in the Philippines, and Okinawa Prefecture in Japan. Wavelet analysis and the dynamic linear regression model were applied. Climate variables used in the analysis included mean temperature, relative and specific humidity, precipitation, and number of rainy days. The Akaike Information Criterion estimated in each model was used to test the improvement of fit in comparison with the baseline model.At all three study sites, annual seasonal peaks were observed in influenza A and RSV; peaks were unclear for influenza B. Ranges of climate variables at the two Philippine sites were narrower and mean variables were significantly different among the three sites. Whereas all climate variables except the number of rainy days improved model fit to the local trend model, their contributions were modest. Mean temperature and specific humidity were positively associated with influenza and RSV at the Philippine sites and negatively associated with influenza A in Okinawa. Precipitation also improved model fit for influenza and RSV at both Philippine sites, except for the influenza A model in the Eastern Visayas.Annual seasonal peaks were observed for influenza A and RSV but were less clear for influenza B at all three study sites. Including additional data from subsequent more years would help to ascertain these findings. Annual amplitude and variation in climate variables are more important than their

  6. Optimal strategies of social distancing and vaccination against seasonal influenza.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shim, Eunha

    2013-01-01

    Optimal control strategies for controlling seasonal influenza transmission in the US are of high interest, because of the significant epidemiological and economic burden of influenza. To evaluate optimal strategies of vaccination and social distancing, we used an age-structured dynamic model of seasonal influenza. We applied optimal control theory to identify the best way of reducing morbidity and mortality at a minimal cost. In combination with the Pontryagins maximum principle, we calculated time-dependent optimal policies of vaccination and social distancing to minimize the epidemiological and economic burden associated with seasonal influenza. We computed optimal age-specific intervention strategies and analyze them under various costs of interventions and disease transmissibility. Our results show that combined strategies have a stronger impact on the reduction of the final epidemic size. Our results also suggest that the optimal vaccination can be achieved by allocating most vaccines to preschool-age children (age under five) followed by young adults (age 20-39) and school age children (age 6-19). We find that the optimal vaccination rates for all age groups are highest at the beginning of the outbreak, requiring intense effort at the early phase of an epidemic. On the other hand, optimal social distancing of clinical cases tends to last the entire duration of an outbreak, and its intensity is relatively equal for all age groups. Furthermore, with higher transmissibility of the influenza virus (i.e. higher R0), the optimal control strategy needs to include more efforts to increase vaccination rates rather than efforts to encourage social distancing. Taken together, public health agencies need to consider both the transmissibility of the virus and ways to encourage early vaccination as well as voluntary social distancing of symptomatic cases in order to determine optimal intervention strategies against seasonal influenza.

  7. Skip the trip: air travelers' behavioral responses to pandemic influenza.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eli P Fenichel

    Full Text Available Theory suggests that human behavior has implications for disease spread. We examine the hypothesis that individuals engage in voluntary defensive behavior during an epidemic. We estimate the number of passengers missing previously purchased flights as a function of concern for swine flu or A/H1N1 influenza using 1.7 million detailed flight records, Google Trends, and the World Health Organization's FluNet data. We estimate that concern over "swine flu," as measured by Google Trends, accounted for 0.34% of missed flights during the epidemic. The Google Trends data correlates strongly with media attention, but poorly (at times negatively with reported cases in FluNet. Passengers show no response to reported cases. Passengers skipping their purchased trips forwent at least $50 M in travel related benefits. Responding to actual cases would have cut this estimate in half. Thus, people appear to respond to an epidemic by voluntarily engaging in self-protection behavior, but this behavior may not be responsive to objective measures of risk. Clearer risk communication could substantially reduce epidemic costs. People undertaking costly risk reduction behavior, for example, forgoing nonrefundable flights, suggests they may also make less costly behavior adjustments to avoid infection. Accounting for defensive behaviors may be important for forecasting epidemics, but linking behavior with epidemics likely requires consideration of risk communication.

  8. Flublok Seasonal Influenza (Flu) Vaccination

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Vaccine Safety and Pregnant Women Febrile Seizures Following Vaccination Flu Vaccine and People with Egg Allergies Guillain- ... Flu Vaccines Quadrivalent Influenza Vaccine Intradermal Influenza (Flu) Vaccination Fluzone High-Dose Seasonal Influenza Vaccine Cell-Based ...

  9. Networked SIS Epidemics With Awareness

    KAUST Repository

    Paarporn, Keith

    2017-07-20

    We study a susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic process over a static contact network where the nodes have partial information about the epidemic state. They react by limiting their interactions with their neighbors when they believe the epidemic is currently prevalent. A node\\'s awareness is weighted by the fraction of infected neighbors in their social network, and a global broadcast of the fraction of infected nodes in the entire network. The dynamics of the benchmark (no awareness) and awareness models are described by discrete-time Markov chains, from which mean-field approximations (MFAs) are derived. The states of the MFA are interpreted as the nodes\\' probabilities of being infected. We show a sufficient condition for the existence of a

  10. Stochastic dynamics of cholera epidemics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Azaele, Sandro; Maritan, Amos; Bertuzzo, Enrico; Rodriguez-Iturbe, Ignacio; Rinaldo, Andrea

    2010-05-01

    We describe the predictions of an analytically tractable stochastic model for cholera epidemics following a single initial outbreak. The exact model relies on a set of assumptions that may restrict the generality of the approach and yet provides a realm of powerful tools and results. Without resorting to the depletion of susceptible individuals, as usually assumed in deterministic susceptible-infected-recovered models, we show that a simple stochastic equation for the number of ill individuals provides a mechanism for the decay of the epidemics occurring on the typical time scale of seasonality. The model is shown to provide a reasonably accurate description of the empirical data of the 2000/2001 cholera epidemic which took place in the Kwa Zulu-Natal Province, South Africa, with possibly notable epidemiological implications.

  11. Environmental Factors Influencing Epidemic Cholera

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jutla, Antarpreet; Whitcombe, Elizabeth; Hasan, Nur; Haley, Bradd; Akanda, Ali; Huq, Anwar; Alam, Munir; Sack, R. Bradley; Colwell, Rita

    2013-01-01

    Cholera outbreak following the earthquake of 2010 in Haiti has reaffirmed that the disease is a major public health threat. Vibrio cholerae is autochthonous to aquatic environment, hence, it cannot be eradicated but hydroclimatology-based prediction and prevention is an achievable goal. Using data from the 1800s, we describe uniqueness in seasonality and mechanism of occurrence of cholera in the epidemic regions of Asia and Latin America. Epidemic regions are located near regional rivers and are characterized by sporadic outbreaks, which are likely to be initiated during episodes of prevailing warm air temperature with low river flows, creating favorable environmental conditions for growth of cholera bacteria. Heavy rainfall, through inundation or breakdown of sanitary infrastructure, accelerates interaction between contaminated water and human activities, resulting in an epidemic. This causal mechanism is markedly different from endemic cholera where tidal intrusion of seawater carrying bacteria from estuary to inland regions, results in outbreaks. PMID:23897993

  12. Scaling behavior of threshold epidemics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ben-Naim, E.; Krapivsky, P. L.

    2012-05-01

    We study the classic Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model for the spread of an infectious disease. In this stochastic process, there are two competing mechanism: infection and recovery. Susceptible individuals may contract the disease from infected individuals, while infected ones recover from the disease at a constant rate and are never infected again. Our focus is the behavior at the epidemic threshold where the rates of the infection and recovery processes balance. In the infinite population limit, we establish analytically scaling rules for the time-dependent distribution functions that characterize the sizes of the infected and the recovered sub-populations. Using heuristic arguments, we also obtain scaling laws for the size and duration of the epidemic outbreaks as a function of the total population. We perform numerical simulations to verify the scaling predictions and discuss the consequences of these scaling laws for near-threshold epidemic outbreaks.

  13. On the spread of the novel influenza A (H1N1) virus in Mexico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    López-Cervantes, Malaquías; Venado, Aida; Moreno, Andrés; Pacheco-Domínguez, Reyna L; Ortega-Pierres, Guadalupe

    2009-06-01

    A novel influenza A H1N1 virus of swine origin is responsible for the influenza epidemic affecting Mexico, the United States of America (USA), and 39 other countries. While the origin of this emerging pathogen remains uncertain, an increase in the reported incidence of respiratory diseases was noted during March 2009 at the town of La Gloria, in the southeastern state of Veracruz, Mexico. So far, this is the first community in which a case of novel influenza A H1N1 virus has been identified. Further cases were rapidly detected in other areas of Mexico and elsewhere. Initially, the atypical respiratory disease outbreak caused great uncertainty posing a challenge to the Mexican health system. Control measures such as social distancing, timely medical care, and personal hygiene have so far proven effective in containing the outbreak, resulting in a decline of the number of new cases. To the best of our knowledge, it appears that the virus might not be as virulent or contagious as previously thought. Here we provide a description of the influenza epidemic spread in Mexico. As the virus disseminates worldwide, there is concern about the possibility of a new reassortment resulting in a more pathogenic strain that will pose a threat for every country. The influenza epidemic provided lessons that underscore the importance of epidemiologic surveillance and preparedness. Further investigation to address questions about this new virus and conditions for its spread is warranted.

  14. "Pandemic public health paradox": Time series analysis of the 2009/10 influenza A/H1N1 epidemiology, media attention, risk perception and public reactions in 5 European countries

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    R. Reintjes (R.); E. Das (Enny); Klemm, C. (Celine); J.H. Richardus (Jan Hendrik); Keßler, V. (Verena); R.A. Ahmad (Riris)

    2016-01-01

    textabstractIn 2009, influenza A H1N1 caused the first pandemic of the 21st century. Although a vaccine against this influenza subtype was offered before or at the onset of the second epidemic wave that caused most of the fatal cases in Europe, vaccination rates for that season were lower than

  15. Intranasal vaccination promotes detrimental Th17-mediated immunity against influenza infection.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Asher Maroof

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Influenza disease is a global health issue that causes significant morbidity and mortality through seasonal epidemics. Currently, inactivated influenza virus vaccines given intramuscularly or live attenuated influenza virus vaccines administered intranasally are the only approved options for vaccination against influenza virus in humans. We evaluated the efficacy of a synthetic toll-like receptor 4 agonist CRX-601 as an adjuvant for enhancing vaccine-induced protection against influenza infection. Intranasal administration of CRX-601 adjuvant combined with detergent split-influenza antigen (A/Uruguay/716/2007 (H3N2 generated strong local and systemic immunity against co-administered influenza antigens while exhibiting high efficacy against two heterotypic influenza challenges. Intranasal vaccination with CRX-601 adjuvanted vaccines promoted antigen-specific IgG and IgA antibody responses and the generation of polyfunctional antigen-specific Th17 cells (CD4(+IL-17A(+TNFα(+. Following challenge with influenza virus, vaccinated mice transiently exhibited increased weight loss and morbidity during early stages of disease but eventually controlled infection. This disease exacerbation following influenza infection in vaccinated mice was dependent on both the route of vaccination and the addition of the adjuvant. Neutralization of IL-17A confirmed a detrimental role for this cytokine during influenza infection. The expansion of vaccine-primed Th17 cells during influenza infection was also accompanied by an augmented lung neutrophilic response, which was partially responsible for mediating the increased morbidity. This discovery is of significance in the field of vaccinology, as it highlights the importance of both route of vaccination and adjuvant selection in vaccine development.

  16. OBESITY: OVERVIEW OF AN EPIDEMIC

    OpenAIRE

    Mitchell, Nia; Catenacci, Vicki; Wyatt, Holly R.; Hill, James O.

    2011-01-01

    Despite growing recognition of the problem, the obesity epidemic continues in the U.S., and obesity rates are increasing around the world. The latest estimates are that approximately 34% of adults and 15–20% of children and adolescents in the U.S. are obese. Obesity affects every segment of the U.S. population. Obesity increases the risk of many chronic diseases in children and adults. The epidemic of obesity arose gradually over time, apparently from a small, consistent degree of positive en...

  17. The narcissism epidemic is dead : Long live the narcissism epidemic

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wetzel, Eunike; Brown, Anna; Hill, Patrick; Chung, J.M.H.; Robins, R.W.; Roberts, B.W.

    2017-01-01

    Are recent cohorts of college students more narcissistic than their predecessors? To address debates about the so-called “narcissism epidemic,” we used data from three cohorts of students (N1990s = 1,166; N2000s = 33,647; N2010s = 25,412) to test whether narcissism levels (overall and specific

  18. HIV epidemic in South Africa: A comparison of HIV epidemic ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2014-08-26

    Aug 26, 2014 ... Method: 'Know your epidemic' synthesis suggests that HIV prevalence is rising in older age groups and falling in younger people. Using secondary data analyses of population-based and antenatal care surveillance (ANC) surveys, we explored trends and patterns in HIV prevalence in KwaZulu-Natal and ...

  19. Evaluation of a rapid diagnostic test, NanoSign® Influenza A/B Antigen, for detection of the 2009 pandemic influenza A/H1N1 viruses

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lee Gyu-Cheol

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background This study evaluated the clinical accuracy and analytical sensitivity of the NanoSign® Influenza A/B antigen kit in detecting 2009 pandemic influenza A/H1N1 viruses. The kit is one of the most popular rapid diagnostic tests for detecting influenza in Republic of Korea. Results The NanoSign® Influenza A/B kit resulted in 79.4% sensitivity and 97.2% specificity compared to RT-PCR in the detection of the viruses from 1,023 specimens. In addition, the kit was able to detect two strains of novel influenza viruses, Influenza A/California/12/2009(H1N1 and clinically isolated wild-type novel influenza A/H1N1, both of which are spreading epidemically throughout the world. In addition, the correlation between NanoSign® Influenza A/B test and conventional RT-PCR was approximately 94%, indicating a high concordance rate. Analytical sensitivity of the kit was approximately 73 ± 3.65 ng/mL of the purified viral proteins and 1.13 ± 0.11 hemagglutination units for the cultured virus. Conclusions As the NanoSign® Influenza A/B kit showed relatively high sensitivity and specificity and the good correlation with RT-PCR, it will be very useful in the early control of influenza infection and in helping physicians in making early treatment decisions.

  20. Developing Universal Influenza Vaccines: Hitting the Nail, Not Just on the Head

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lidewij C. M. Wiersma

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Influenza viruses have a huge impact on public health. Current influenza vaccines need to be updated annually and protect poorly against antigenic drift variants or novel emerging subtypes. Vaccination against influenza can be improved in two important ways, either by inducing more broadly protective immune responses or by decreasing the time of vaccine production, which is relevant especially during a pandemic outbreak. In this review, we outline the current efforts to develop so-called “universal influenza vaccines”, describing antigens that may induce broadly protective immunity and novel vaccine production platforms that facilitate timely availability of vaccines.

  1. Developing Universal Influenza Vaccines: Hitting the Nail, Not Just on the Head

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wiersma, Lidewij C. M.; Rimmelzwaan, Guus F.; de Vries, Rory D.

    2015-01-01

    Influenza viruses have a huge impact on public health. Current influenza vaccines need to be updated annually and protect poorly against antigenic drift variants or novel emerging subtypes. Vaccination against influenza can be improved in two important ways, either by inducing more broadly protective immune responses or by decreasing the time of vaccine production, which is relevant especially during a pandemic outbreak. In this review, we outline the current efforts to develop so-called “universal influenza vaccines”, describing antigens that may induce broadly protective immunity and novel vaccine production platforms that facilitate timely availability of vaccines. PMID:26343187

  2. An innovative influenza vaccination policy: targeting last season's patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamin, Dan; Gavious, Arieh; Solnik, Eyal; Davidovitch, Nadav; Balicer, Ran D; Galvani, Alison P; Pliskin, Joseph S

    2014-05-01

    Influenza vaccination is the primary approach to prevent influenza annually. WHO/CDC recommendations prioritize vaccinations mainly on the basis of age and co-morbidities, but have never considered influenza infection history of individuals for vaccination targeting. We evaluated such influenza vaccination policies through small-world contact networks simulations. Further, to verify our findings we analyzed, independently, large-scale empirical data of influenza diagnosis from the two largest Health Maintenance Organizations in Israel, together covering more than 74% of the Israeli population. These longitudinal individual-level data include about nine million cases of influenza diagnosed over a decade. Through contact network epidemiology simulations, we found that individuals previously infected with influenza have a disproportionate probability of being highly connected within networks and transmitting to others. Therefore, we showed that prioritizing those previously infected for vaccination would be more effective than a random vaccination policy in reducing infection. The effectiveness of such a policy is robust over a range of epidemiological assumptions, including cross-reactivity between influenza strains conferring partial protection as high as 55%. Empirically, our analysis of the medical records confirms that in every age group, case definition for influenza, clinical diagnosis, and year tested, patients infected in the year prior had a substantially higher risk of becoming infected in the subsequent year. Accordingly, considering individual infection history in targeting and promoting influenza vaccination is predicted to be a highly effective supplement to the current policy. Our approach can also be generalized for other infectious disease, computer viruses, or ecological networks.

  3. An innovative influenza vaccination policy: targeting last season's patients.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dan Yamin

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Influenza vaccination is the primary approach to prevent influenza annually. WHO/CDC recommendations prioritize vaccinations mainly on the basis of age and co-morbidities, but have never considered influenza infection history of individuals for vaccination targeting. We evaluated such influenza vaccination policies through small-world contact networks simulations. Further, to verify our findings we analyzed, independently, large-scale empirical data of influenza diagnosis from the two largest Health Maintenance Organizations in Israel, together covering more than 74% of the Israeli population. These longitudinal individual-level data include about nine million cases of influenza diagnosed over a decade. Through contact network epidemiology simulations, we found that individuals previously infected with influenza have a disproportionate probability of being highly connected within networks and transmitting to others. Therefore, we showed that prioritizing those previously infected for vaccination would be more effective than a random vaccination policy in reducing infection. The effectiveness of such a policy is robust over a range of epidemiological assumptions, including cross-reactivity between influenza strains conferring partial protection as high as 55%. Empirically, our analysis of the medical records confirms that in every age group, case definition for influenza, clinical diagnosis, and year tested, patients infected in the year prior had a substantially higher risk of becoming infected in the subsequent year. Accordingly, considering individual infection history in targeting and promoting influenza vaccination is predicted to be a highly effective supplement to the current policy. Our approach can also be generalized for other infectious disease, computer viruses, or ecological networks.

  4. Balancing immune protection and immune pathology by CD8+ T cell responses to influenza infection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Susu eDuan

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Influenza A virus (IAV is a significant human pathogen causing annual epidemics and periodic pandemics. CD8+ cytotoxic T lymphocyte (CTL-mediated immunity contributes to clearance of virus-infected cells; CTL immunity targeting the conserved internal proteins of IAVs is a key protection mechanism when neutralizing antibodies are absent during heterosubtypic IAV infection. However, CTL infiltration into the airways, their cytotoxicity, and the effects of produced pro-inflammatory cytokines can cause severe lung tissue injury, thereby contributing to immunopathology. Studies have discovered complicated and exquisite stimulatory and inhibitory mechanisms that regulate CTL magnitude and effector activities during IAV infection. Here, we review the state of knowledge on the roles of IAV-specific CTLs in immune protection and immunopathology during IAV infection in animal models, highlighting the key findings of various requirements and constraints regulating the balance of immune protection and pathology involved in CTL immunity. We also discuss the evidence of cross-reactive CTL immunity as a positive correlate of cross-subtype protection during secondary IAV infection in both animal and human studies. We argue that the effects of CTL immunity on protection and immunopathology depend on multiple layers of host and viral factors, including complex host mechanisms to regulate CTL magnitude and effector activity, the pathogenic nature of the IAV, the innate response milieu, and the host historical immune context of influenza infection. Future efforts are needed to further understand these key host and viral factors, especially to differentiate those that constrain optimally effective CTL anti-viral immunity from those necessary to restrain CTL-mediated nonspecific immunopathology in the various contexts of IAV infection, in order to develop better vaccination and therapeutic strategies for modifying protective CTL immunity.

  5. Swine Influenza/Variant Influenza Viruses

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Humans Key Facts about Human Infections with Variant Viruses Interim Guidance for Clinicians on Human Infections Background, Risk Assessment & Reporting Reported Infections with Variant Influenza Viruses in the United States since 2005 Past Outbreaks ...

  6. Avian influenza: The tip of the iceberg

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Balkhy Hanan

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available For some years now, we have been living with the fear of an impending pandemic of avian influenza (AI. Despite the recognition, in 1996, of the global threat posed by the highly pathogenic H5N1 influenza virus found in farmed geese in Guangdong Province, China, planning for the anticipated epidemic remains woefully inadequate; this is especially true in developing countries such as Saudi Arabia. These deficiencies became obvious in 1997, with the outbreak of AI in the live animal markets in Hong Kong that led to the transmission of infection to 18 humans with close contact with diseased birds; there were six reported deaths. [1] In 2003, with the reemergence of H5N1 (considered the most likely AI virus in the Republic of Korea and its subsequent spread to Thailand, Vietnam, Hong Kong and China. Many countries started aggressively making preparations to meet the threat. [2] The pressure for real action from governments has increased. Most developed countries have requested increased funding for the search for a more effective vaccine, for stockpiling possibly helpful antiviral drugs, and for intensifying domestic and global surveillance. [3] Most countries, however, continue to be inadequately prepared for such an epidemic, especially with regard to animal surveillance in the farm market and surveillance among migratory birds. Even now, most countries do not have the ability to detect disease among humans in the early stages of an outbreak nor do most hospitals comply with effective infection control measures that could curtail the spread of the virus in the early stages of an epidemic. In Saudi Arabia we are rapidly implementing many of these measures. [4

  7. Stochastic Processes in Epidemic Theory

    CERN Document Server

    Lefèvre, Claude; Picard, Philippe

    1990-01-01

    This collection of papers gives a representative cross-selectional view of recent developments in the field. After a survey paper by C. Lefèvre, 17 other research papers look at stochastic modeling of epidemics, both from a theoretical and a statistical point of view. Some look more specifically at a particular disease such as AIDS, malaria, schistosomiasis and diabetes.

  8. Epidemic Synchronization in Robotic Swarms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schiøler, Henrik; Nielsen, Jens Frederik Dalsgaard; Ngo, Trung Dung

    2009-01-01

    Clock synchronization in swarms of networked mobile robots is studied in a probabilistic, epidemic framework. In this setting communication and synchonization is considered to be a randomized process, taking place at unplanned instants of geographical rendezvous between robots. In combination...... as an infinite-dimensional optimal controlproblem. Illustrative numerical examples are given and commented....

  9. The First American Cocaine Epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Courtwright, David T.

    1991-01-01

    Discusses the wave of cocaine abuse that followed the drug's recommendation by the late nineteenth-century medical community as a cure all. Details drug addiction among ethnic and social groups at the turn of the century. Warns that drug epidemics have important social and legal consequences. Suggests legal pressure may alter the form of drug…

  10. Opioids: The Prescription Drug & Heroin Overdose Epidemic

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... About the Epidemic Help, Resources and Information National Opioids Crisis Search Search National Helpline SAMHSA’s National Helpline ... 1-800-662-4357 Visit Helpline Website THE OPIOID EPIDEMIC IN NUMBERS 80% Nearly 80% of heroin ...

  11. The effect of age and recent influenza vaccination history on the immunogenicity and efficacy of 2009-10 seasonal trivalent inactivated influenza vaccination in children.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sophia Ng

    Full Text Available There is some evidence that annual vaccination of trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine (TIV may lead to reduced vaccine immunogenicity but evidence is lacking on whether vaccine efficacy is affected by prior vaccination history. The efficacy of one dose of TIV in children 6-8 y of age against influenza B is uncertain. We examined whether immunogenicity and efficacy of influenza vaccination in school-age children varied by age and past vaccination history.We conducted a randomized controlled trial of 2009-10 TIV. Influenza vaccination history in the two preceding years was recorded. Immunogenicity was assessed by comparison of HI titers before and one month after receipt of TIV/placebo. Subjects were followed up for 11 months with symptom diaries, and respiratory specimens were collected during acute respiratory illnesses to permit confirmation of influenza virus infections. We found that previous vaccination was associated with reduced antibody responses to TIV against seasonal A(H1N1 and A(H3N2 particularly in children 9-17 y of age, but increased antibody responses to the same lineage of influenza B virus in children 6-8 y of age. Serological responses to the influenza A vaccine viruses were high regardless of vaccination history. One dose of TIV appeared to be efficacious against confirmed influenza B in children 6-8 y of age regardless of vaccination history.Prior vaccination was associated with lower antibody titer rises following vaccination against seasonal influenza A vaccine viruses, but higher responses to influenza B among individuals primed with viruses from the same lineage in preceding years. In a year in which influenza B virus predominated, no impact of prior vaccination history was observed on vaccine efficacy against influenza B. The strains that circulated in the year of study did not allow us to study the effect of prior vaccination on vaccine efficacy against influenza A.

  12. Influenza A and B viruses in the population of Vojvodina, Serbia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Radovanov J.

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available At present, two influenza A viruses, H1N1pdm09 and H3N2, along with influenza B virus co-circulate in the human population, causing endemic and seasonal epidemic acute febrile respiratory infections, sometimes with life-threatening complications. Detection of influenza viruses in nasopharyngeal swab samples was done by real-time RT-PCR. There were 60.2% (53/88 positive samples in 2010/11, 63.4% (52/82 in 2011/12, and 49.9% (184/369 in 2012/13. Among the positive patients, influenza A viruses were predominant during the first two seasons, while influenza B type was more active during 2012/13. Subtyping of influenza A positive samples revealed the presence of A (H1N1pdm09 in 2010/11, A (H3N2 in 2011/12, while in 2012/13, both subtypes were detected. The highest seroprevalence against influenza A was in the age-group 30-64, and against influenza B in adults aged 30-64 and >65. [Projekat Ministarstva nauke Republike Srbije, br. TR31084

  13. Measuring Cellular Immunity to Influenza: Methods of Detection, Applications and Challenges

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lynda Coughlan

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Influenza A virus is a respiratory pathogen which causes both seasonal epidemics and occasional pandemics; infection continues to be a significant cause of mortality worldwide. Current influenza vaccines principally stimulate humoral immune responses that are largely directed towards the variant surface antigens of influenza. Vaccination can result in an effective, albeit strain-specific antibody response and there is a need for vaccines that can provide superior, long-lasting immunity to influenza. Vaccination approaches targeting conserved viral antigens have the potential to provide broadly cross-reactive, heterosubtypic immunity to diverse influenza viruses. However, the field lacks consensus on the correlates of protection for cellular immunity in reducing severe influenza infection, transmission or disease outcome. Furthermore, unlike serological methods such as the standardized haemagglutination inhibition assay, there remains a large degree of variation in both the types of assays and method of reporting cellular outputs. T-cell directed immunity has long been known to play a role in ameliorating the severity and/or duration of influenza infection, but the precise phenotype, magnitude and longevity of the requisite protective response is unclear. In order to progress the development of universal influenza vaccines, it is critical to standardize assays across sites to facilitate direct comparisons between clinical trials.

  14. Unspecified gastroenteritis illness and deaths in the elderly associated with norovirus epidemics.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Asten, L. van; Siebenga, J.; Wijngaard, C. van den; Verheij, R.; Vliet, H. van; Kretzschmar, M.; Boshuizen, H.; Pelt, W. van; Koopmans, M.

    2011-01-01

    BACKGROUND: New variant strains of norovirus have emerged worldwide in recent years, evolving by mutation much like influenza viruses. These strains have been associated with a notable increase in the number of annual norovirus outbreaks. However, the impact of such increased norovirus activity on

  15. Unspecified gastroenteritis illness and deaths in the elderly associated with norovirus epidemics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Asten, van L.; Siebenga, J.; Wijngaard, van den C.; Verheij, R.; Vliet, van H.; Kretzschmar, M.; Boshuizen, H.C.; Pelt, van W.; Koopmans, M.

    2011-01-01

    Background: New variant strains of norovirus have emerged worldwide in recent years, evolving by mutation much like influenza viruses. These strains have been associated with a notable increase in the number of annual norovirus outbreaks. However, the impact of such increased norovirus activity on

  16. Epidemiology of Haemophilus influenzae bacteremia: A multi-national population-based assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Laupland, Kevin B; Schønheyder, Henrik C; Østergaard, Christian

    2011-01-01

    -2008. RESULTS: The overall annual incidence rate was 1.31 per 100,000 population and type specific rates were 0.08 for H. influenzae serotype b (Hib), 0.22 for H. influenzae serotypes a, c-f (Hiac-f), and 0.98 per 100,000 for non-typeable H. influenzae (NTHi). Very young and old patients were at highest risk......OBJECTIVES: Haemophilus influenzae is an important cause of invasive infection but contemporary data in non-selected populations is limited. METHODS: Population-based surveillance for Haemophilus influenzae bacteremia was conducted in seven regions in Australia, Canada, and Denmark during 2000...... independently associated with death at 30-days in logistic regression analysis included male gender, hospital-onset disease, older age, and lower respiratory tract, central nervous system, or unknown focus of infection. CONCLUSIONS: Haemophilus influenzae is an important cause of morbidity and mortality...

  17. Influenza Vaccine Research funded by the European Commission FP7-Health-2013-Innovation-1 project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Heng; Frijlink, Henderik W; Huckriede, Anke; van Doorn, Eva; Schmidt, Ed; Leroy, Odile; Rimmelzwaan, Guus; McCullough, Keneth; Whelan, Mike; Hak, Eelko

    2016-11-21

    Due to influenza viruses continuously displaying antigenic variation, current seasonal influenza vaccines must be updated annually to include the latest predicted strains. Despite all the efforts put into vaccine strain selection, vaccine production, testing, and administration, the protective efficacy of seasonal influenza vaccines is greatly reduced when predicted vaccine strains antigenically mismatch with the actual circulating strains. Moreover, preparing for a pandemic outbreak is a challenge, because it is unpredictable which strain will cause the next pandemic. The European Commission has funded five consortia on influenza vaccine development under the Seventh Framework Programme for Research and Technological Development (FP7) in 2013. The call of the EU aimed at developing broadly protective influenza vaccines. Here we review the scientific strategies used by the different consortia with respect to antigen selection, vaccine delivery system, and formulation. The issues related to the development of novel influenza vaccines are discussed. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Influenza Vaccination During Pregnancy: Influenza Seasons 2002-2012, Vaccine Safety Datalink.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Groom, Holly C; Henninger, Michelle L; Smith, Ning; Koppolu, Padma; Cheetham, T Craig; Glanz, Jason M; Hambidge, Simon J; Jackson, Lisa A; Kharbanda, Elyse O; Klein, Nicola P; McCarthy, Natalie L; Nordin, James D; Weintraub, Eric S; Naleway, Allison L

    2016-04-01

    Pregnant women are at risk for influenza-related complications and have been recommended for vaccination by the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) since 1990. Annual rates of influenza coverage of pregnant women have been consistently low. The Vaccine Safety Datalink was used to assess influenza vaccine coverage over 10 consecutive years (2002-2012); assess patterns related to changes in ACIP recommendations; identify predictors of vaccination; and compare the results with those published by national U.S. surveys. Retrospective cohort study of 721,898 pregnancies conducted in 2014. Coverage rates were assessed for all pregnancies and for live births only. Multivariate regression analysis identified predictors associated with vaccination. Coverage increased from 8.8% to 50.9% in 2002-2012. Seasonal coverage rates increased slowly following the 2004 ACIP influenza vaccine recommendation (to remove the first trimester restriction), but spiked significantly during the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic. Significant predictors of vaccination during pregnancy included older age; vaccination in a previous season; high-risk conditions in addition to pregnancy; pregnancy during either the 2004-2005 or 2009-2010 seasons; entering the influenza season after the first trimester of pregnancy; and a pregnancy with longer overlap with the influenza season (pvaccination coverage among pregnant women increased between the 2002-2003 and 2011-2012 seasons, although it was still below the developmental Healthy People 2020 goal of 80%. The 2004 ACIP language change positively impacted first-trimester vaccination uptake. Vaccine Safety Datalink data estimates were consistent with U.S. estimates. Copyright © 2016 American Journal of Preventive Medicine. All rights reserved.

  19. [Vaccination against influenza in pregnant women - safety and effectiveness].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nitsch-Osuch, Aneta; Woźniak Kosek, Agnieszka; Brydak, Lidia Bernadeta

    2013-01-01

    Influenza is a major cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. During seasonal influenza epidemics and pandemics, pregnancy places otherwise healthy women at an increased risk of complications from influenza. The factors believed to increase the susceptibility of complicated influenza infection during pregnancy are linked to the physiologic changes, including immunologic changes (attenuation of the cell-mediated immune responses, selective suppression of T-helper 1 cell mediated immunity while the adaptive humoral immunity remains unimpaired), increased cardiac output and oxygen consumption and tidal volume. Pregnant women have similar incidence of seasonal influenza as the general population, however because of the physiological changes, they are at an increased risk of complications (including secondary pneumonia, acute respiratory insufficiency increased risk of stillbirth, premature deliveries) and death. Immunization of pregnant women against influenza is currently recommended in many countries. Vaccination against influenza with trivalent inactivated vaccine (TIV) has been proven to be safe and effective. Lack of harmful effect of TIV on pregnant women and newborns has been demonstrated in several studies: no increased risk of spontaneous abortions, preterm birth, low birth weight, congenital malformations, cesarean section have been reported. Vaccination against influenza has been proven to be effective in reducing rates and severity of the disease in vaccinated mothers and their children. Several studies revealed a decreased risk of influenza-like illnesses among mothers who were vaccinated during pregnancy but also a decreased risk of laboratory confirmed cases of influenza and hospitalizations due to influenza and its complications among newborns and infants born to vaccinated mothers. Currently available inactivated influenza vaccines are not licensed for use in infants younger than 6 months. Protection of young infants against the infection in early

  20. Mortality Attributable to Seasonal Influenza A and B Infections in Thailand, 2005–2009: A Longitudinal Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cooper, Ben S.; Kotirum, Surachai; Kulpeng, Wantanee; Praditsitthikorn, Naiyana; Chittaganpitch, Malinee; Limmathurotsakul, Direk; Day, Nicholas P. J.; Coker, Richard; Teerawattananon, Yot; Meeyai, Aronrag

    2015-01-01

    Influenza epidemiology differs substantially in tropical and temperate zones, but estimates of seasonal influenza mortality in developing countries in the tropics are lacking. We aimed to quantify mortality due to seasonal influenza in Thailand, a tropical middle-income country. Time series of polymerase chain reaction–confirmed influenza infections between 2005 and 2009 were constructed from a sentinel surveillance network. These were combined with influenza-like illness data to derive measures of influenza activity and relationships to mortality by using a Bayesian regression framework. We estimated 6.1 (95% credible interval: 0.5, 12.4) annual deaths per 100,000 population attributable to influenza A and B, predominantly in those aged ≥60 years, with the largest contribution from influenza A(H1N1) in 3 out of 4 years. For A(H3N2), the relationship between influenza activity and mortality varied over time. Influenza was associated with increases in deaths classified as resulting from respiratory disease (posterior probability of positive association, 99.8%), cancer (98.6%), renal disease (98.0%), and liver disease (99.2%). No association with circulatory disease mortality was found. Seasonal influenza infections are associated with substantial mortality in Thailand, but evidence for the strong relationship between influenza activity and circulatory disease mortality reported in temperate countries is lacking. PMID:25899091

  1. Repeated seasonal influenza vaccination among elderly in Europe: Effects on laboratory confirmed hospitalised influenza.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rondy, Marc; Launay, Odile; Castilla, Jesus; Costanzo, Simona; Puig-Barberà, Joan; Gefenaite, Giedre; Larrauri, Amparo; Rizzo, Caterina; Pitigoi, Daniela; Syrjänen, Ritva K; Machado, Ausenda; Kurečić Filipović, Sanja; Krisztina Horváth, Judit; Paradowska-Stankiewicz, Iwona; Marbus, Sierk; Moren, Alain

    2017-08-03

    In Europe, annual influenza vaccination is recommended to elderly. From 2011 to 2014 and in 2015-16, we conducted a multicentre test negative case control study in hospitals of 11 European countries to measure influenza vaccine effectiveness (IVE) against laboratory confirmed hospitalised influenza among people aged ≥65years. We pooled four seasons data to measure IVE by past exposures to influenza vaccination. We swabbed patients admitted for clinical conditions related to influenza with onset of severe acute respiratory infection ≤7days before admission. Cases were patients RT-PCR positive for influenza virus and controls those negative for any influenza virus. We documented seasonal vaccination status for the current season and the two previous seasons. We recruited 5295 patients over the four seasons, including 465A(H1N1)pdm09, 642A(H3N2), 278 B case-patients and 3910 controls. Among patients unvaccinated in both previous two seasons, current seasonal IVE (pooled across seasons) was 30% (95%CI: -35 to 64), 8% (95%CI: -94 to 56) and 33% (95%CI: -43 to 68) against influenza A(H1N1)pdm09, A(H3N2) and B respectively. Among patients vaccinated in both previous seasons, current seasonal IVE (pooled across seasons) was -1% (95%CI: -80 to 43), 37% (95%CI: 7-57) and 43% (95%CI: 1-68) against influenza A(H1N1)pdm09, A(H3N2) and B respectively. Our results suggest that, regardless of patients' recent vaccination history, current seasonal vaccine conferred some protection to vaccinated patients against hospitalisation with influenza A(H3N2) and B. Vaccination of patients already vaccinated in both the past two seasons did not seem to be effective against A(H1N1)pdm09. To better understand the effect of repeated vaccination, engaging in large cohort studies documenting exposures to vaccine and natural infection is needed. Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  2. Generation of influenza virus from avian cells infected by Salmonella carrying the viral genome.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiangmin Zhang

    Full Text Available Domestic poultry serve as intermediates for transmission of influenza A virus from the wild aquatic bird reservoir to humans, resulting in influenza outbreaks in poultry and potential epidemics/pandemics among human beings. To combat emerging avian influenza virus, an inexpensive, heat-stable, and orally administered influenza vaccine would be useful to vaccinate large commercial poultry flocks and even migratory birds. Our hypothesized vaccine is a recombinant attenuated bacterial strain able to mediate production of attenuated influenza virus in vivo to induce protective immunity against influenza. Here we report the feasibility and technical limitations toward such an ideal vaccine based on our exploratory study. Five 8-unit plasmids carrying a chloramphenicol resistance gene or free of an antibiotic resistance marker were constructed. Influenza virus was successfully generated in avian cells transfected by each of the plasmids. The Salmonella carrier was engineered to allow stable maintenance and conditional release of the 8-unit plasmid into the avian cells for recovery of influenza virus. Influenza A virus up to 10⁷ 50% tissue culture infective doses (TCID50/ml were recovered from 11 out of 26 co-cultures of chicken embryonic fibroblasts (CEF and Madin-Darby canine kidney (MDCK cells upon infection by the recombinant Salmonella carrying the 8-unit plasmid. Our data prove that a bacterial carrier can mediate generation of influenza virus by delivering its DNA cargoes into permissive host cells. Although we have made progress in developing this Salmonella influenza virus vaccine delivery system, further improvements are necessary to achieve efficient virus production, especially in vivo.

  3. Impact of A Waning Vaccine and Altered Behavior on the Spread of Influenza

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kasia A. Pawelek

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Influenza remains one of the major infectious diseases that targets humankind. Understanding within-host dynamics of the virus and how it translates into the spread of the disease at a population level can help us obtain more accurate disease outbreak predictions. We created an ordinary differential equation model with parameter estimates based on the disease symptoms score data to determine various disease stages and parameters associated with infectiousness and disease progression. Having various stages with different intensities of symptoms enables us to incorporate spontaneous behavior change due to the onset/offset of disease symptoms. Additionally, we incorporate the effect of a waning vaccine on delaying the time and decreasing the size of an epidemic peak. Our results showed that the epidemic peak in the model was significantly lowered when public vaccination was performed up to two months past the onset of an epidemic. Also, behavior change in the earliest stages of the epidemic lowers and delays the epidemic peak. This study further provides information on the potential impact of pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical interventions during an influenza epidemic.

  4. US healthcare costs attributable to type A and type B influenza.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, Songkai; Weycker, Derek; Sokolowski, Stefania

    2017-09-02

    While the overall healthcare burden of seasonal influenza in the United States (US) has been well characterized, the proportion of influenza burden attributable to type A and type B illness warrants further elucidation. The aim of this study was to estimate numbers of healthcare encounters and healthcare costs attributable to influenza viral strains A and B in the US during the 2001/2002 - 2008/2009 seasons. Healthcare encounters and costs in the US during the 2001/2002 - 2008/2009 seasons for influenza type A and influenza type B were estimated separately and collectively, by season and age group, based on data from published literature and secondary sources for: rates of influenza-related encounters requiring formal healthcare, unit costs of influenza-related healthcare encounters, and estimates of population size. Across 8 seasons, projected annual numbers of influenza-related healthcare encounters ranged from 11.3-25.6 million, and healthcare costs, from $2.0-$5.8 billion. While the majority of influenza illness was attributable to type A strains, type B strains accounted for 37% of healthcare costs across all seasons, and as much as 66% in a single season. The outpatient burden of type B disease was considerable among persons aged 18-64 y while the hospital cost burden was highest in young children. Influenza viral strain B was associated with considerable health system burden each year during the period of interest. Increasing influenza vaccine coverage, especially with the recently approved quadrivalent products including an additional type B strain, could potentially reduce overall annual influenza burden in the US.

  5. Influenza infection and heart failure-vaccination may change heart failure prognosis?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kadoglou, Nikolaos P E; Bracke, Frank; Simmers, Tim; Tsiodras, Sotirios; Parissis, John

    2017-05-01

    The interaction of influenza infection with the pathogenesis of acute heart failure (AHF) and the worsening of chronic heart failure (CHF) is rather complex. The deleterious effects of influenza infection on AHF/CHF can be attenuated by specific immunization. Our review aimed to summarize the efficacy, effectiveness, safety, and dosage of anti-influenza vaccination in HF. In this literature review, we searched MEDLINE and EMBASE from January 1st 1966 to December 31st, 2016, for studies examining the association between AHF/CHF, influenza infections, and anti-influenza immunizations. We used broad criteria to increase the sensitivity of the search. HF was a prerequisite for our search. The search fields used included "heart failure," "vaccination," "influenza," "immunization" along with variants of these terms. No restrictions on the type of study design were applied. The most common clinical scenario is exacerbation of pre-existing CHF by influenza infection. Scarce evidence supports a potential positive association of influenza infection with AHF. Vaccinated patients with pre-existing CHF have reduced all-cause morbidity and mortality, but effects are not consistently documented. Immunization with higher antigen quantity may confer additional protection, but such aggressive approach has not been generally advocated. Further studies are needed to delineate the role of influenza infection on AHF/CHF pathogenesis and maintenance. Annual anti-influenza vaccination appears to be an effective measure for secondary prevention in HF. Better immunization strategies and more efficacious vaccines are urgently necessary.

  6. Antibody Responses to Trivalent Inactivated Influenza Vaccine in Health Care Personnel Previously Vaccinated and Vaccinated for The First Time

    OpenAIRE

    Kuan-Ying A. Huang; Shih-Cheng Chang; Yhu-Chering Huang; Cheng-Hsun Chiu; Tzou-Yien Lin

    2017-01-01

    Inactivated influenza vaccination induces a hemagglutinin-specific antibody response to the strain used for immunization. Annual vaccination is strongly recommended for health care personnel. However, it is debatable if repeated vaccination would affect the antibody response to inactivated influenza vaccine through the time. We enrolled health care personnel who had repeated and first trivalent inactivated influenza vaccination in 2005?2008. Serological antibody responses were measured by hem...

  7. A comparative analysis of influenza vaccination programs.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shweta Bansal

    2006-10-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The threat of avian influenza and the 2004-2005 influenza vaccine supply shortage in the United States have sparked a debate about optimal vaccination strategies to reduce the burden of morbidity and mortality caused by the influenza virus. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We present a comparative analysis of two classes of suggested vaccination strategies: mortality-based strategies that target high-risk populations and morbidity-based strategies that target high-prevalence populations. Applying the methods of contact network epidemiology to a model of disease transmission in a large urban population, we assume that vaccine supplies are limited and then evaluate the efficacy of these strategies across a wide range of viral transmission rates and for two different age-specific mortality distributions. We find that the optimal strategy depends critically on the viral transmission level (reproductive rate of the virus: morbidity-based strategies outperform mortality-based strategies for moderately transmissible strains, while the reverse is true for highly transmissible strains. These results hold for a range of mortality rates reported for prior influenza epidemics and pandemics. Furthermore, we show that vaccination delays and multiple introductions of disease into the community have a more detrimental impact on morbidity-based strategies than mortality-based strategies. CONCLUSIONS: If public health officials have reasonable estimates of the viral transmission rate and the frequency of new introductions into the community prior to an outbreak, then these methods can guide the design of optimal vaccination priorities. When such information is unreliable or not available, as is often the case, this study recommends mortality-based vaccination priorities.

  8. Climate-based models for understanding and forecasting dengue epidemics.

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    Elodie Descloux

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Dengue dynamics are driven by complex interactions between human-hosts, mosquito-vectors and viruses that are influenced by environmental and climatic factors. The objectives of this study were to analyze and model the relationships between climate, Aedes aegypti vectors and dengue outbreaks in Noumea (New Caledonia, and to provide an early warning system. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Epidemiological and meteorological data were analyzed from 1971 to 2010 in Noumea. Entomological surveillance indices were available from March 2000 to December 2009. During epidemic years, the distribution of dengue cases was highly seasonal. The epidemic peak (March-April lagged the warmest temperature by 1-2 months and was in phase with maximum precipitations, relative humidity and entomological indices. Significant inter-annual correlations were observed between the risk of outbreak and summertime temperature, precipitations or relative humidity but not ENSO. Climate-based multivariate non-linear models were developed to estimate the yearly risk of dengue outbreak in Noumea. The best explicative meteorological variables were the number of days with maximal temperature exceeding 32°C during January-February-March and the number of days with maximal relative humidity exceeding 95% during January. The best predictive variables were the maximal temperature in December and maximal relative humidity during October-November-December of the previous year. For a probability of dengue outbreak above 65% in leave-one-out cross validation, the explicative model predicted 94% of the epidemic years and 79% of the non epidemic years, and the predictive model 79% and 65%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The epidemic dynamics of dengue in Noumea were essentially driven by climate during the last forty years. Specific conditions based on maximal temperature and relative humidity thresholds were determinant in outbreaks occurrence. Their persistence was

  9. Climate-based models for understanding and forecasting dengue epidemics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Descloux, Elodie; Mangeas, Morgan; Menkes, Christophe Eugène; Lengaigne, Matthieu; Leroy, Anne; Tehei, Temaui; Guillaumot, Laurent; Teurlai, Magali; Gourinat, Ann-Claire; Benzler, Justus; Pfannstiel, Anne; Grangeon, Jean-Paul; Degallier, Nicolas; De Lamballerie, Xavier

    2012-01-01

    Dengue dynamics are driven by complex interactions between human-hosts, mosquito-vectors and viruses that are influenced by environmental and climatic factors. The objectives of this study were to analyze and model the relationships between climate, Aedes aegypti vectors and dengue outbreaks in Noumea (New Caledonia), and to provide an early warning system. Epidemiological and meteorological data were analyzed from 1971 to 2010 in Noumea. Entomological surveillance indices were available from March 2000 to December 2009. During epidemic years, the distribution of dengue cases was highly seasonal. The epidemic peak (March-April) lagged the warmest temperature by 1-2 months and was in phase with maximum precipitations, relative humidity and entomological indices. Significant inter-annual correlations were observed between the risk of outbreak and summertime temperature, precipitations or relative humidity but not ENSO. Climate-based multivariate non-linear models were developed to estimate the yearly risk of dengue outbreak in Noumea. The best explicative meteorological variables were the number of days with maximal temperature exceeding 32°C during January-February-March and the number of days with maximal relative humidity exceeding 95% during January. The best predictive variables were the maximal temperature in December and maximal relative humidity during October-November-December of the previous year. For a probability of dengue outbreak above 65% in leave-one-out cross validation, the explicative model predicted 94% of the epidemic years and 79% of the non epidemic years, and the predictive model 79% and 65%, respectively. The epidemic dynamics of dengue in Noumea were essentially driven by climate during the last forty years. Specific conditions based on maximal temperature and relative humidity thresholds were determinant in outbreaks occurrence. Their persistence was also crucial. An operational model that will enable health authorities to anticipate the

  10. Influenza: prevention, prophylaxis and treatment

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Influenza A tends to cause moderate to severe illness in all age groups, and can infect humans and animals, including birds. Influenza B causes milder disease only in humans, primarily in children. Influenza C has rarely been reported to affect humans. The problem with the influenza virus is that it undergoes antigenic.

  11. A study of the swine flu (H1N1 epidemic among health care providers of a medical college hospital of Delhi

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Om Prakash Rajoura

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Influenza viruses cause annual epidemics and occasional pandemics that have claimed the lives of millions. Understanding the role of specific perceptions in motivating people to engage in precautionary behavior may help health communicators to improve their messages about outbreaks of new infectious disease generally and swine flu specifically. Objectives: To study the knowledge and practices of health care providers regarding swine flu and to study the attitudes and practices of health care providers toward the prevention of the swine flu epidemic. Materials and Methods: The present study was a cross-sectional (descriptive study and was conducted in the month of September, 2009, among doctors and nurses. A maximum of 40% of the total health care providers of GTB Hospital were covered because of feasibility and logistics, and, therefore, the sample size was 334. Results: Around 75% of the health care providers were aware about the symptoms of swine flu. Mostly, all study subjects were aware that it is transmitted through droplet infection. Correct knowledge of the incubation period of swine flu was known to 80% of the doctors and 69% of the nurses. Knowledge about high-risk groups (contacts, travelers, health care providers was observed among 88% of the doctors and 78.8% of the nurses. Practice of wearing mask during duty hours was observed among 82.6% of doctors and 85% of nurses, whereas of the total study population, only 40% were correctly using mask during duty hours. Conclusions: Significant gaps observed between knowledge and actual practice of the Health Care Provider regarding swine flu need to be filled by appropriate training. Data indicate that the health care providers are very intellectual, but they do not themselves practice what they preach.

  12. Avian influenza virus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Avian influenza virus (AIV) is type A influenza that is adapted to avian host species. Although the virus can be isolated from numerous avian species, the natural host reservoir species are dabbling ducks, shorebirds and gulls. Domestic poultry species (poultry being defined as birds that are rais...

  13. Towards universal influenza vaccines?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    A.D.M.E. Osterhaus (Albert); R.A.M. Fouchier (Ron); G.F. Rimmelzwaan (Guus)

    2011-01-01

    textabstractVaccination is the most cost-effective way to reduce the considerable disease burden of seasonal influenza. Although seasonal influenza vaccines are effective, their performance in the elderly and immunocompromised individuals would benefit from improvement. Major problems related to the

  14. Influenza A (H1N1)pnd09 Vaccination of Pregnant Women and Immunological Consequences for Their Offspring

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bischoff, Anne Louise

    2013-01-01

    in the community. Influenza is also a major cause of morbidity and hospitalization in infants younger than six months. In particular the 2009 pandemic caused more severe disease in the neonates and young infants than in older children, all unprotected from passive immunity to this novel virus. No vaccination...... the woman is vaccinated. We found no changes in the incidence of infections in the first year of life in the children. In conclusion, we find the immune response to the H1N1pnd09 vaccine in pregnant women may be diminished compared with non-pregnant women. Furthermore, H1N1pnd09 vaccination during pregnancy......Pregnant women experience increased influenza related morbidity and mortality during seasonal influenza epidemics, and even graver outcomes during influenza pandemics. Thus, even though the huge amount of data on clinical efficacy and effectiveness of influenza vaccine in pregnant women...

  15. Some Observations on Naso-pharyngeal Epidemics in Public Schools.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glover, J A

    1928-07-01

    Over 80 per cent. of school sickness, whether judged by the number of cases or by the time lost, is transmitted by "droplet" infection.The alleged increase in sickness in public schools is partly apparent, due to increased attention to minor febricula and partly real, due (1) to increased influenza prevalence, the aftermath of the great epidemic of 1918, and (2) to the increased demand for public school education leading to pressure upon accommodation, and especially to overcrowding in dormitories.The bulk of the droplet infections are accounted for by (1) influenza; (2) feverish cold, chill, or P.U.O.; (3) tonsillitis; regular infectious diseases make a comparatively small showing. The incidence and bacteriological findings and the variations in the incidence of pneumonia and otitis media are discussed. Are these complications really secondary epidemics? Tonsillitis, bacteriological findings, milk.Prophylaxis.-Efficacy of vaccines uncertain. Some evidence that they may diminish the onset of complications. If given vaccines should be administered before the danger period, i.e., not later than November.Intensive prophylaxia other than vaccines during the first half of the Lent term would probably amply repay any trouble. It should include:-(a) Special efforts to prevent boys returning to school after the Christmas holidays infected with influenza or febricula.(b) Temperature taking for three weeks.(c) Immediate isolation of all pyrexias and catarrhs.(d) No work before breakfast for at least the first six weeks of the term.(e) All hot baths and showers taken during the day or after games to be followed by cold showers.(f) Prevention of chill in watching games, etc.(g) Increased provision for drying clothes, uniforms and boots.Infection mainly takes place in sleeping quarters, and proper spacing out of beds and thorough "cross" ventilation in dormitories is of paramount importance; instances of cross infection due to proximity of beds; illustrated by bed charts and

  16. Epidemic thresholds for bipartite networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hernández, D. G.; Risau-Gusman, S.

    2013-11-01

    It is well known that sexually transmitted diseases (STD) spread across a network of human sexual contacts. This network is most often bipartite, as most STD are transmitted between men and women. Even though network models in epidemiology have quite a long history now, there are few general results about bipartite networks. One of them is the simple dependence, predicted using the mean field approximation, between the epidemic threshold and the average and variance of the degree distribution of the network. Here we show that going beyond this approximation can lead to qualitatively different results that are supported by numerical simulations. One of the new features, that can be relevant for applications, is the existence of a critical value for the infectivity of each population, below which no epidemics can arise, regardless of the value of the infectivity of the other population.

  17. Predictors of seasonal influenza vaccination among older adults in Thailand.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Prabda Praphasiri

    Full Text Available In advance of a large influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE cohort study among older adults in Thailand, we conducted a population-based, cross-sectional survey to measure vaccine coverage and identify factors associated with influenza vaccination among older Thai adults that could bias measures of vaccine effectiveness.We selected adults ≥65 years using a two-stage, stratified, cluster sampling design. Functional status was assessed using the 10-point Vulnerable Elders Survey (VES; scores ≥3 indicated vulnerability. Questions about attitudes towards vaccination were based on the Health Belief Model. The distance between participants' households and the nearest vaccination clinic was calculated. Vaccination status was determined using national influenza vaccination registry. Prevalence ratios (PR and 95% confidence intervals (CIs were calculated using log-binomial multivariable models accounting for the sampling design.We enrolled 581 participants, of whom 60% were female, median age was 72 years, 41% had at least one chronic underlying illness, 24% met the criteria for vulnerable, and 23% did not leave the house on a daily basis. Influenza vaccination rate was 34%. In multivariable models, no variable related to functional status was associated with vaccination. The strongest predictors of vaccination were distance to the nearest vaccination center (PR 3.0, 95% CI 1.7-5.1 for participants in the closest quartile compared to the furthest, and high levels of a perception of benefits of influenza vaccination (PR 2.8, 95% CI 1.4-5.6 and cues to action (PR 2.7, 95% CI 1.5-5.1.Distance to vaccination clinics should be considered in analyses of influenza VE studies in Thailand. Strategies that emphasize benefits of vaccination and encourage physicians to recommend annual influenza vaccination could improve influenza vaccine uptake among older Thai adults. Outreach to more distant and less mobile older adults may also be required to improve influenza

  18. Multiple routes transmitted epidemics on multiplex networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhao, Dawei; Li, Lixiang; Peng, Haipeng; Luo, Qun; Yang, Yixian

    2014-01-01

    This letter investigates the multiple routes transmitted epidemic process on multiplex networks. We propose detailed theoretical analysis that allows us to accurately calculate the epidemic threshold and outbreak size. It is found that the epidemic can spread across the multiplex network even if all the network layers are well below their respective epidemic thresholds. Strong positive degree–degree correlation of nodes in multiplex network could lead to a much lower epidemic threshold and a relatively smaller outbreak size. However, the average similarity of neighbors from different layers of nodes has no obvious effect on the epidemic threshold and outbreak size. -- Highlights: •We studies multiple routes transmitted epidemic process on multiplex networks. •SIR model and bond percolation theory are used to analyze the epidemic processes. •We derive equations to accurately calculate the epidemic threshold and outbreak size. •ASN has no effect on the epidemic threshold and outbreak size. •Strong positive DDC leads to a lower epidemic threshold and a smaller outbreak size.

  19. Multi-Omics Studies towards Novel Modulators of Influenza A Virus–Host Interaction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sandra Söderholm

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Human influenza A viruses (IAVs cause global pandemics and epidemics. These viruses evolve rapidly, making current treatment options ineffective. To identify novel modulators of IAV–host interactions, we re-analyzed our recent transcriptomics, metabolomics, proteomics, phosphoproteomics, and genomics/virtual ligand screening data. We identified 713 potential modulators targeting 199 cellular and two viral proteins. Anti-influenza activity for 48 of them has been reported previously, whereas the antiviral efficacy of the 665 remains unknown. Studying anti-influenza efficacy and immuno/neuro-modulating properties of these compounds and their combinations as well as potential viral and host resistance to them may lead to the discovery of novel modulators of IAV–host interactions, which might be more effective than the currently available anti-influenza therapeutics.

  20. Distinct susceptibility and applicability of MDCK derivatives for influenza virus research.

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    Shih-Chao Lin

    Full Text Available Madin-Darby Canine Kidney (MDCK cells are widely utilized as a substrate for influenza virus isolation and propagation due to the high yields of virus. Here we compared the conventional MDCK cell line, MDCK-SIAT1 and MDCK-London for viral production, cell survival, and suitability in testing antivirals using six influenza strains including two H1N1 (pandemic and epidemic strains, three H3N2 and one influenza B strain. Overall our results suggest that MDCK-London cell line is superior for virus culturing and quantification, and hence an ideal platform to evaluate antiviral drug efficacy against multiple strains of influenza. Our data also suggests that while virus titers determined by the hemagglutination assay (HA and neuraminidase activity (NA are widely used to indicate viral load, there is a poor correlation between these measurements and the infectious titer obtained by plaque assay.

  1. The Demise of Poskanzer and Schwab's Influenza Theory on the Pathogenesis of Parkinson's Disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Estupinan, Danny; Nathoo, Sunina; Okun, Michael S

    2013-01-01

    In 1961, David C. Poskanzer and Robert S. Schwab presented a paper, "Studies in the epidemiology of Parkinson's disease predicting its disappearance as a major clinical entity by 1980." This paper introduced the hypothesis that Parkinson's disease was derived from a single aetiology, the influenza virus. We review the original Poskanzer and Schwab hypothesis that Parkinson's disease was based on the association between the 1918-19 influenza epidemic and the later observation of Parkinsonism in some influenza sufferers. We also further explore the prediction that Parkinson's disease would totally disappear as an entity once original influenza victims were all deceased. Current research has revealed that there are many potential causes and factors important in the occurrence of Parkinson's disease, postencephalitic Parkinsonism, and encephalitis lethargica. Poskanzer and Schwab presented a novel hypothesis; however, it was proven false by a combination of research and time.

  2. Development of Modified Vaccinia Virus Ankara-based Influenza Vaccines

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    A.F. Altenburg (Arwen)

    2018-01-01

    textabstractInfluenza viruses continuously circulate in the human population and are estimated to cause 3-5 million cases of severe respiratory illness annually worldwide of which 250.000-500.000 have a fatal outcome. Vaccination is the most efficient measure to control infectious diseases,

  3. Influenza in Bristol Bay, 1919

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Gilson deValpine

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The 1918 influenza pandemic has been blamed for as many as 50 million deaths worldwide. Like all major disasters, the full story of the pandemic includes smaller, less noted episodes that have not attracted historical attention. The story of the 1919 wave of the influenza pandemic in Bristol Bay Alaska is one such lost episode. It is an important story because the most accessible accounts—the Congressional Record and the Coast Guard Report—are inconsistent with reports made by employees, health care workers, and volunteers at the site of the disaster. Salmon fishing industry supervisors and medical officers recorded their efforts to save the region’s Native Alaskans in private company reports. The federal Bureau of Education physician retained wireless transmission, reports, and letters of events. The Coast Guard summarized its work in its Annual Report of 1920. The independent Bureau of Fisheries report to the Department of Commerce reveals the Coast Guard report at striking odds with others and reconciles only one account. This article explores the historical oversight, and attempts to tell the story of the 1919 wave of the pandemic which devastated the Native Alaskan population in this very remote place.

  4. Combination Chemotherapy for Influenza

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert G. Webster

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available The emergence of pandemic H1N1 influenza viruses in April 2009 and the continuous evolution of highly pathogenic H5N1 influenza viruses underscore the urgency of novel approaches to chemotherapy for human influenza infection. Anti-influenza drugs are currently limited to the neuraminidase inhibitors (oseltamivir and zanamivir and to M2 ion channel blockers (amantadine and rimantadine, although resistance to the latter class develops rapidly. Potential targets for the development of new anti-influenza agents include the viral polymerase (and endonuclease, the hemagglutinin, and the non-structural protein NS1. The limitations of monotherapy and the emergence of drug-resistant variants make combination chemotherapy the logical therapeutic option. Here we review the experimental data on combination chemotherapy with currently available agents and the development of new agents and therapy targets.

  5. Rainfall mediations in the spreading of epidemic cholera

    Science.gov (United States)

    Righetto, L.; Bertuzzo, E.; Mari, L.; Schild, E.; Casagrandi, R.; Gatto, M.; Rodriguez-Iturbe, I.; Rinaldo, A.

    2013-10-01

    Following the empirical evidence of a clear correlation between rainfall events and cholera resurgence that was observed in particular during the recent outbreak in Haiti, a spatially explicit model of epidemic cholera is re-examined. Specifically, we test a multivariate Poisson rainfall generator, with parameters varying in space and time, as a driver of enhanced disease transmission. The relevance of the issue relates to the key insight that predictive mathematical models may provide into the course of an ongoing cholera epidemic aiding emergency management (say, in allocating life-saving supplies or health care staff) or in evaluating alternative management strategies. Our model consists of a set of dynamical equations (SIRB-like i.e. subdivided into the compartments of Susceptible, Infected and Recovered individuals, and including a balance of Bacterial concentrations in the water reservoir) describing a connected network of human communities where the infection results from the exposure to excess concentrations of pathogens in the water. These, in turn, are driven by rainfall washout of open-air defecation sites or cesspool overflows, hydrologic transport through waterways and by mobility of susceptible and infected individuals. We perform an a posteriori analysis (from the beginning of the epidemic in October 2010 until December 2011) to test the model reliability in predicting cholera cases and in testing control measures, involving vaccination and sanitation campaigns, for the ongoing epidemic. Even though predicting reliably the timing of the epidemic resurgence proves difficult due to rainfall inter-annual variability, we find that the model can reasonably quantify the total number of reported infection cases in the selected time-span. We then run a multi-seasonal prediction of the course of the epidemic until December 2015, to investigate conditions for further resurgences and endemicity of cholera in the region with a view to policies which may bring to

  6. Definition and characterization of localised meningitis epidemics in Burkina Faso: a longitudinal retrospective study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tall Haoua

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The epidemiology of meningococcal meningitis in the African meningitis belt is characterised by seasonality, localised epidemics and epidemic waves. To facilitate research and surveillance, we aimed to develop a definition for localised epidemics to be used in real-time surveillance based on weekly case reports at the health centre level. Methods We used national routine surveillance data on suspected meningitis from January 2004 to December 2008 in six health districts in western and central Burkina Faso. We evaluated eight thresholds composed of weekly incidence rates at health centre level for their performance in predicting annual incidences of 0.4%and 0.8% in health centre areas. The eventually chosen definition was used to describe the spatiotemporal epidemiology and size of localised meningitis epidemics during the included district years. Results Among eight weekly thresholds evaluated, a weekly incidence rate of 75 cases per 100,000 inhabitants during at least two consecutive weeks with at least 5 cases per week had 100% sensitivity and 98% specificity for predicting an annual incidence of at least 0.8% in health centres. Using this definition, localised epidemics were identified in all but one years during 2004-2008, concerned less than 10% of the districts' population and often were geographically dispersed. Where sufficient laboratory data were available, localised epidemics were exclusively due to meningococci. Conclusions This definition of localised epidemics a the health centre level will be useful for risk factor and modelling studies to understand the meningitis belt phenomenon and help documenting vaccine impact against epidemic meningitis where no widespread laboratory surveillance exists for quantifying disease reduction after vaccination.

  7. Epidemic spread on weighted networks.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christel Kamp

    Full Text Available The contact structure between hosts shapes disease spread. Most network-based models used in epidemiology tend to ignore heterogeneity in the weighting of contacts between two individuals. However, this assumption is known to be at odds with the data for many networks (e.g. sexual contact networks and to have a critical influence on epidemics' behavior. One of the reasons why models usually ignore heterogeneity in transmission is that we currently lack tools to analyze weighted networks, such that most studies rely on numerical simulations. Here, we present a novel framework to estimate key epidemiological variables, such as the rate of early epidemic expansion (r0 and the basic reproductive ratio (R0, from joint probability distributions of number of partners (contacts and number of interaction events through which contacts are weighted. These distributions are much easier to infer than the exact shape of the network, which makes the approach widely applicable. The framework also allows for a derivation of the full time course of epidemic prevalence and contact behaviour, which we validate with numerical simulations on networks. Overall, incorporating more realistic contact networks into epidemiological models can improve our understanding of the emergence and spread of infectious diseases.

  8. Understanding the Cholera Epidemic, Haiti

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barrais, Robert; Faucher, Benoît; Haus, Rachel; Piarroux, Martine; Gaudart, Jean; Magloire, Roc; Raoult, Didier

    2011-01-01

    After onset of a cholera epidemic in Haiti in mid-October 2010, a team of researchers from France and Haiti implemented field investigations and built a database of daily cases to facilitate identification of communes most affected. Several models were used to identify spatiotemporal clusters, assess relative risk associated with the epidemic’s spread, and investigate causes of its rapid expansion in Artibonite Department. Spatiotemporal analyses highlighted 5 significant clusters (p<0.001): 1 near Mirebalais (October 16–19) next to a United Nations camp with deficient sanitation, 1 along the Artibonite River (October 20–28), and 3 caused by the centrifugal epidemic spread during November. The regression model indicated that cholera more severely affected communes in the coastal plain (risk ratio 4.91) along the Artibonite River downstream of Mirebalais (risk ratio 4.60). Our findings strongly suggest that contamination of the Artibonite and 1 of its tributaries downstream from a military camp triggered the epidemic. PMID:21762567

  9. IDENTIFICATION OF INFLUENZA VIRUSES IN HUMAN AND POULTRY IN THE AREA OF LARANGAN WET MARKET SIDOARJO-EAST JAVA, INDONESIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edith Frederika

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Background: Influenza is a viral infection that attacks the respiratory system (nose, throat, and lungs that commonly known as “flu”. There are 3 types ofinfluenza viruses, such as type A, type B, and type C. Influenza virus type A is the type ofvirus that can infect both human and animals, virus type B are normally found only in human, and Influenza virus type C can cause mild illness in human and not causing any epidemics or pandemics. Among these 3 types of influenza viruses, only influenza A viruses infect birds, particularly wild bird that are the natural host for all subtypes ofinfluenza A virus. Generally, those wild birds do not get sick when they are infected with influenza virus, unlike chickens or ducks which may die from avian influenza. Aim: In this study, we are identifying the influenza viruses among poultry in Larangan wet market. Method: Around 500 kinds ofpoultry were examined from cloacal swab. Result: Those samples were restrained with symptoms ofsuspected H5. The people who worked as the poultry-traders intact with the animal everyday were also examined, by taking nasopharyngeal swab and blood serum. Conclusion: Identification of influenza viruses was obtained to define the type and subtype ofinfluenza virus by PCR.

  10. Interim estimates of the effectiveness of influenza vaccination against influenza-associated hospitalization in children in Hong Kong, 2015-16.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cowling, Benjamin J; Kwan, Mike Y W; Wong, Joshua S C; Feng, Shuo; Leung, Chi-Wai; Chan, Eunice L Y; Chan, Kwok-Hung; Ng, Tak-Keung; To, Wing-Kin; Peiris, Malik J S; Chiu, Susan S

    2017-01-01

    From 1 September 2015 through 31 January 2016, we enrolled 2068 children 6 months to 17 years of age admitted to hospital with a febrile acute respiratory infection in our test-negative study. Information on receipt of 2015-16 northern hemisphere inactivated influenza vaccination was elicited from parents or legal guardians. Using conditional logistic regression adjusting for age and matching on calendar time, we estimated influenza vaccine effectiveness against hospitalization with influenza A or B to be 79.2% (95% confidence interval: 42.0%-92.4%). Annual influenza vaccination should be more widely used in children in Hong Kong. © 2016 The Authors. Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  11. Effects of Repeated Annual Inactivated Influenza Vaccination among Healthcare Personnel on Serum Hemagglutinin Inhibition Antibody Response to A/Perth/16/2009 (H3N2)-like virus during 2010–11

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, Mark G.; Naleway, Allison; Fry, Alicia M.; Ball, Sarah; Spencer, Sarah M.; Reynolds, Sue; Bozeman, Sam; Levine, Min; Katz, Jacqueline M.; Gaglani, Manjusha

    2016-01-01

    Background Recently, lower estimates of influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) against A(H3N2) virus illness among those vaccinated during the previous season or multiple seasons have been reported; however, it is unclear whether these effects are due to differences in immunogenicity. Methods We performed hemagglutination inhibition antibody (HI) assays on serum collected at preseason, ∼30 days post-vaccination, and postseason from a prospective cohort of healthcare personnel (HCP). Eligible participants had medical and vaccination records for at least four years (since July, 2006), including 578 HCP who received 2010–11 trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine [IIV3, containing A/Perth/16/2009-like A(H3N2)] and 209 HCP who declined vaccination. Estimates of the percentage with high titers (≥40 and > 100) and geometric mean fold change ratios (GMRs) to A/Perth/16/2009-like virus by number of prior vaccinations were adjusted for age, sex, race, education, household size, hospital care responsibilities, and study site. Results Post-vaccination GMRs were inversely associated with the number of prior vaccinations, increasing from 2.3 among those with 4 prior vaccinations to 6.2 among HCP with zero prior vaccinations (F[4,567] = 9.97, p vaccination achieved titers >100 compared to only 11% of HCP with 4 prior vaccinations (adjusted odds ratio = 6.8, 95% CI = 3.1 – 15.3). Conclusion Our findings point to an exposure-response association between repeated IIV3 vaccination and HI for A(H3N2) and are consistent with recent VE observations. Ultimately, better vaccines and vaccine strategies may be needed in order to optimize immunogenicity and VE for HCP and other repeated vaccinees. PMID:26813801

  12. Effects of Repeated Annual Inactivated Influenza Vaccination among Healthcare Personnel on Serum Hemagglutinin Inhibition Antibody Response to A/Perth/16/2009 (H3N2)-like virus during 2010-11.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, Mark G; Naleway, Allison; Fry, Alicia M; Ball, Sarah; Spencer, Sarah M; Reynolds, Sue; Bozeman, Sam; Levine, Min; Katz, Jacqueline M; Gaglani, Manjusha

    2016-02-10

    Recently, lower estimates of influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) against A(H3N2) virus illness among those vaccinated during the previous season or multiple seasons have been reported; however, it is unclear whether these effects are due to differences in immunogenicity. We performed hemagglutination inhibition antibody (HI) assays on serum collected at preseason, ∼ 30 days post-vaccination, and postseason from a prospective cohort of healthcare personnel (HCP). Eligible participants had medical and vaccination records for at least four years (since July, 2006), including 578 HCP who received 2010-11 trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine [IIV3, containing A/Perth/16/2009-like A(H3N2)] and 209 HCP who declined vaccination. Estimates of the percentage with high titers (≥ 40 and>100) and geometric mean fold change ratios (GMRs) to A/Perth/16/2009-like virus by number of prior vaccinations were adjusted for age, sex, race, education, household size, hospital care responsibilities, and study site. Post-vaccination GMRs were inversely associated with the number of prior vaccinations, increasing from 2.3 among those with 4 prior vaccinations to 6.2 among HCP with zero prior vaccinations (F[4,567]=9.97, pvaccination achieved titers >100 compared to only 11% of HCP with 4 prior vaccinations (adjusted odds ratio=6.8, 95% CI=3.1 - 15.3). Our findings point to an exposure-response association between repeated IIV3 vaccination and HI for A(H3N2) and are consistent with recent VE observations. Ultimately, better vaccines and vaccine strategies may be needed in order to optimize immunogenicity and VE for HCP and other repeated vaccinees. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  13. Analysis of public concerns about influenza vaccinations by mining a massive online question dataset in Japan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nawa, Nobutoshi; Kogaki, Shigetoyo; Takahashi, Kunihiko; Ishida, Hidekazu; Baden, Hiroki; Katsuragi, Shinichi; Narita, Jun; Tanaka-Taya, Keiko; Ozono, Keiichi

    2016-06-08

    Elucidating public concerns regarding vaccinations is important for successful immunization programs. The objective of the present study was to categorize public concerns regarding influenza vaccinations in Japan by analyzing a massive web-based question dataset. The Yahoo! Chiebukuro (Japanese Yahoo! Answers) Dataset, which includes more than 16 million questions collected between April 2004 and April 2009, was used in this study. We sequentially filtered data to obtain questions on influenza vaccinations. Any questions that met our exclusion criteria concerning veterinary vaccines or computer virus vaccines were removed from the analysis. Filtered questions and their answers were manually analyzed for their content by a team of board-certified pediatricians. After filtering data, we obtained 1950 questions regarding influenza vaccinations. The three most frequently asked questions were regarding the vaccination schedule, safety, and effectiveness. When we analyzed monthly trends in question contents, we noted the emergence of similar questions in the same period every year. Therefore, we classified the time periods of each year into three parts: (1) from April to the commencement of seasonal influenza vaccinations (September), (2) from October until the epidemic period, and (3) the epidemic period. Two interesting results were obtained: concerns regarding effectiveness abruptly increased during the epidemic period, and pregnant or breastfeeding women increasingly asked questions regarding feasibility between October and the epidemic period. The questions and concerns collected and analyzed in this study illustrate that the public have questions about the influenza vaccine and also that questions changed with periodical consistency. These results highlight the possible usefulness of providing the public with the latest and correct information to their questions in a timely manner, for example via an official health website. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All

  14. The Scourge of Asian Flu: In Utero Exposure to Pandemic Influenza and the Development of a Cohort of British Children

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelly, Elaine

    2011-01-01

    This paper examines the impact of in utero exposure to the Asian influenza pandemic of 1957 upon childhood development. Outcome data are provided by the National Child Development Study (NCDS), a panel study where all members were potentially exposed in the womb. Epidemic effects are identified using geographic variation in a surrogate measure of…

  15. Partial protection of seasonal trivalent inactivated vaccine against novel pandemic influenza A/H1N1 2009: case-control study in Mexico City.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia-Garcia, Lourdes; Valdespino-Gómez, Jose Luis; Lazcano-Ponce, Eduardo; Jimenez-Corona, Aida; Higuera-Iglesias, Anjarath; Cruz-Hervert, Pablo; Cano-Arellano, Bulmaro; Garcia-Anaya, Antonio; Ferreira-Guerrero, Elizabeth; Baez-Saldaña, Renata; Ferreyra-Reyes, Leticia; Ponce-de-León-Rosales, Samuel; Alpuche-Aranda, Celia; Rodriguez-López, Mario Henry; Perez-Padilla, Rogelio; Hernandez-Avila, Mauricio

    2009-10-06

    To evaluate the association of 2008-9 seasonal trivalent inactivated vaccine with cases of influenza A/H1N1 during the epidemic in Mexico. Frequency matched case-control study. Specialty hospital in Mexico City, March to May 2009. 60 patients with laboratory confirmed influenza A/H1N1 and 180 controls with other diseases (not influenza-like illness or pneumonia) living in Mexico City or the State of Mexico and matched for age and socioeconomic status. Odds ratio and effectiveness of trivalent inactivated vaccine against influenza A/H1N1. Cases were more likely than controls to be admitted to hospital, undergo invasive mechanical ventilation, and die. Controls were more likely than cases to have chronic conditions that conferred a higher risk of influenza related complications. In the multivariate model, influenza A/H1N1 was independently associated with trivalent inactivated vaccine (odds ratio 0.27, 95% confidence interval 0.11 to 0.66) and underlying conditions (0.15, 0.08 to 0.30). Vaccine effectiveness was 73% (95% confidence interval 34% to 89%). None of the eight vaccinated cases died. Preliminary evidence suggests some protection from the 2008-9 trivalent inactivated vaccine against pandemic influenza A/H1N1 2009, particularly severe forms of the disease, diagnosed in a specialty hospital during the influenza epidemic in Mexico City.

  16. [Implementation of the influenza vaccination recommendation in nursing homes in Germany : results of a survey as part of the national influenza immunization campaign].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bödeker, B; Wichmann, O; Mertens, B; Seefeld, L; Pott, E

    2014-11-01

    Residents and staff of nursing homes are important target groups for influenza vaccination in Germany. The aim of this study was to gain the first insights into whether nursing homes organize activities with respect to vaccination against influenza and whether there is a demand for further information. In the context of the national influenza immunization campaign-which is jointly carried out by the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) and the Federal Centre for Health Education (BZgA) on an annual basis-influenza information kits were sent to the management of 10,700 nursing homes in September 2013. Along with the information material, the institutions also received a questionnaire to which they were able to respond via mail, fax, or online. Data from 988 homes were included in the analysis. The majority of institutions informed both residents (88.9 %) and nursing staff (81.2 %) about influenza vaccination. However, only 64.7 % of nursing homes carried out specific immunization activities for their residents and only half (49.3 %) offered a flu shot to their staff. When asked why the institutions do not provide influenza-specific information and vaccination to their staff, the majority had the opinion that this is the responsibility of each individual's general practitioner. Overall, only 4.9 % of nursing homes assessed influenza vaccination coverage among their staff annually. A third of all surveyed institutions (33.6 %) expressed a demand for additional influenza vaccine-related information. In conclusion, improved health education is needed to raise awareness about the importance of influenza vaccination among residents and employees of nursing homes in Germany so as to prevent influenza-associated morbidity and mortality in this risk group.

  17. Cold adaptation improves the growth of seasonal influenza B vaccine viruses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Hyunsuh; Schoofs, Peter; Anderson, David A; Tannock, Gregory A; Rockman, Steven P

    2014-05-01

    Gene reassortment has proved useful in improving yields of influenza A antigens of egg-based inactivated vaccines, but similar approaches have been difficult with influenza B antigens. Current regulations for influenza vaccine seed viruses limit the number of egg passages and as a result resultant yields from influenza B vaccine seed viruses are frequently inconsistent. Therefore, reliable approaches to enhance yields of influenza B vaccine seed viruses are required for efficient vaccine manufacture. In the present study three stable cold-adapted (ca) mutants, caF, caM and caB derived from seasonal epidemic strains, B/Florida/4/2006, B/Malaysia/2506/2004 and B/Brisbane/60/2008 were prepared, which produced high hemagglutinin antigen yields and also increased viral yields of reassortants possessing the desired 6:2 gene constellation. The results demonstrate that consistent improvements in yields of influenza B viruses can be obtained by cold adaptation following extended passage. Taken together, the three ca viruses were shown to have potential as donor viruses for the preparation of high-yielding influenza B vaccine viruses by reassortment. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Baculovirus Displaying Hemagglutinin Elicits Broad Cross-Protection against Influenza in Mice.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sang-Hee Sim

    Full Text Available The widespread influenza virus infection further emphasizes the need for novel vaccine strategies that effectively reduce the impact of epidemic as well as pandemic influenza. Conventional influenza vaccines generally induce virus neutralizing antibody responses which are specific for a few antigenically related strains within the same subtype. However, antibodies directed against the conserved stalk domain of HA could neutralize multiple subtypes of influenza virus and thus provide broad-spectrum protection. In this study, we designed and constructed a recombinant baculovirus-based vaccine, rBac-HA virus, that expresses full-length HA of pandemic H1N1 influenza virus (A/California/04/09 on the viral envelope. We demonstrated that repeated intranasal immunizations with rBac-HA virus induced HA stalk-specific antibody responses and protective immunity against homologous as well as heterosubtypic virus challenge. The adoptive transfer experiment shows that the cross-protection is conferred by the immune sera which contain HA stalk-specific antibodies. These results warrant further development of rBac-HA virus as a broad-protective vaccine against influenza. The vaccine induced protection against infection with the same subtype as well as different subtype, promising a potential universal vaccine for broad protection against different subtypes to control influenza outbreaks including pandemic.

  19. Low uptake of influenza vaccine among university students: evaluating predictors beyond cost and safety concerns.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bednarczyk, Robert A; Chu, Samantha L; Sickler, Heather; Shaw, Jana; Nadeau, Jessica A; McNutt, Louise-Anne

    2015-03-30

    Annual influenza vaccine coverage for young adults (including college students) remains low, despite a 2011 US recommendation for annual immunization of all people 6 months and older. College students are at high risk for influenza morbidity given close living and social spaces and extended travel during semester breaks when influenza circulation typically increases. We evaluated influenza vaccine uptake following an on-campus vaccine campaign at a large, public New York State university. Consecutive students visiting the University Health Center were recruited for a self-administered, anonymous, written survey. Students were asked about recent influenza vaccination, barriers to influenza vaccination, and willingness to get vaccinated to protect other vulnerable individuals they may encounter. Frequencies and proportions were evaluated. Of 653 students approached, 600 completed surveys (92% response proportion); respondents were primarily female (61%) and non-Hispanic white (59%). Influenza vaccine coverage was low (28%). Compared to coverage among non-Hispanic white students (30%), coverage was similar among Hispanic (30%) and other race/ethnicity students (28%) and lowest among non-Hispanic black students (17%). Among the unvaccinated, the most commonly selected vaccination barriers were "Too lazy to get the vaccine" (32%) and "Don't need the vaccine because I'm healthy" (29%); 6% of unvaccinated students cited cost as a barrier. After being informed that influenza vaccination of young, healthy people can protect other vulnerable individuals (e.g., infants, elderly), 71% of unvaccinated students indicated this would increase their willingness to get vaccinated. Influenza vaccine uptake among college students is very low. While making vaccine easily obtained may increase vaccine uptake, college students need to be motivated to get vaccinated. Typically healthy students may not perceive a need for influenza vaccine. Education about vaccinating healthy individuals

  20. Statistical estimates of absenteeism attributable to seasonal and pandemic influenza from the Canadian Labour Force Survey

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-01

    Background As many respiratory viruses are responsible for influenza like symptoms, accurate measures of the disease burden are not available and estimates are generally based on statistical methods. The objective of this study was to estimate absenteeism rates and hours lost due to seasonal influenza and compare these estimates with estimates of absenteeism attributable to the two H1N1 pandemic waves that occurred in 2009. Methods Key absenteeism variables were extracted from Statistics Canada's monthly labour force survey (LFS). Absenteeism and the proportion of hours lost due to own illness or disability were modelled as a function of trend, seasonality and proxy variables for influenza activity from 1998 to 2009. Results Hours lost due to the H1N1/09 pandemic strain were elevated compared to seasonal influenza, accounting for a loss of 0.2% of potential hours worked annually. In comparison, an estimated 0.08% of hours worked annually were lost due to seasonal influenza illnesses. Absenteeism rates due to influenza were estimated at 12% per year for seasonal influenza