WorldWideScience

Sample records for annual influenza epidemic

  1. Can influenza epidemics be prevented by voluntary vaccination?

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    Raffaele Vardavas

    2007-05-01

    Full Text Available Previous modeling studies have identified the vaccination coverage level necessary for preventing influenza epidemics, but have not shown whether this critical coverage can be reached. Here we use computational modeling to determine, for the first time, whether the critical coverage for influenza can be achieved by voluntary vaccination. We construct a novel individual-level model of human cognition and behavior; individuals are characterized by two biological attributes (memory and adaptability that they use when making vaccination decisions. We couple this model with a population-level model of influenza that includes vaccination dynamics. The coupled models allow individual-level decisions to influence influenza epidemiology and, conversely, influenza epidemiology to influence individual-level decisions. By including the effects of adaptive decision-making within an epidemic model, we can reproduce two essential characteristics of influenza epidemiology: annual variation in epidemic severity and sporadic occurrence of severe epidemics. We suggest that individual-level adaptive decision-making may be an important (previously overlooked causal factor in driving influenza epidemiology. We find that severe epidemics cannot be prevented unless vaccination programs offer incentives. Frequency of severe epidemics could be reduced if programs provide, as an incentive to be vaccinated, several years of free vaccines to individuals who pay for one year of vaccination. Magnitude of epidemic amelioration will be determined by the number of years of free vaccination, an individuals' adaptability in decision-making, and their memory. This type of incentive program could control epidemics if individuals are very adaptable and have long-term memories. However, incentive-based programs that provide free vaccination for families could increase the frequency of severe epidemics. We conclude that incentive-based vaccination programs are necessary to control

  2. Public health and economic impact of vaccination with 7-valent pneumococcal vaccine (PCV7 in the context of the annual influenza epidemic and a severe influenza pandemic

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    Strutton David R

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Influenza pandemic outbreaks occurred in the US in 1918, 1957, and 1968. Historical evidence suggests that the majority of influenza-related deaths during the 1918 US pandemic were attributable to bacterial pneumococcal infections. The 2009 novel influenza A (H1N1 outbreak highlights the importance of interventions that may mitigate the impact of a pandemic. Methods A decision-analytic model was constructed to evaluate the impact of 7-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV7 on pneumococcal disease incidence and mortality during a typical influenza season (13/100 and a severe influenza pandemic (30/100. Outcomes were compared for current PCV7 vaccination practices vs. no vaccination. The model was estimated using published sources and includes indirect (herd protection of non-vaccinated persons. Results The model predicts that PCV7 vaccination in the US is cost saving for a normal influenza season, reducing pneumococcal-related costs by $1.6 billion. In a severe influenza pandemic, vaccination would save $7.3 billion in costs and prevent 512,000 cases of IPD, 719,000 cases of pneumonia, 62,000 IPD deaths, and 47,000 pneumonia deaths; 84% of deaths are prevented due to indirect (herd protection in the unvaccinated. Conclusions PCV7 vaccination is highly effective and cost saving in both normal and severe pandemic influenza seasons. Current infant vaccination practices may prevent >1 million pneumococcal-related deaths in a severe influenza pandemic, primarily due to herd protection.

  3. Public health and economic impact of vaccination with 7-valent pneumococcal vaccine (PCV7) in the context of the annual influenza epidemic and a severe influenza pandemic.

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    Rubin, Jaime L; McGarry, Lisa J; Klugman, Keith P; Strutton, David R; Gilmore, Kristen E; Weinstein, Milton C

    2010-01-21

    Influenza pandemic outbreaks occurred in the US in 1918, 1957, and 1968. Historical evidence suggests that the majority of influenza-related deaths during the 1918 US pandemic were attributable to bacterial pneumococcal infections. The 2009 novel influenza A (H1N1) outbreak highlights the importance of interventions that may mitigate the impact of a pandemic. A decision-analytic model was constructed to evaluate the impact of 7-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV7) on pneumococcal disease incidence and mortality during a typical influenza season (13/100) and a severe influenza pandemic (30/100). Outcomes were compared for current PCV7 vaccination practices vs. no vaccination. The model was estimated using published sources and includes indirect (herd) protection of non-vaccinated persons. The model predicts that PCV7 vaccination in the US is cost saving for a normal influenza season, reducing pneumococcal-related costs by $1.6 billion. In a severe influenza pandemic, vaccination would save $7.3 billion in costs and prevent 512,000 cases of IPD, 719,000 cases of pneumonia, 62,000 IPD deaths, and 47,000 pneumonia deaths; 84% of deaths are prevented due to indirect (herd) protection in the unvaccinated. PCV7 vaccination is highly effective and cost saving in both normal and severe pandemic influenza seasons. Current infant vaccination practices may prevent >1 million pneumococcal-related deaths in a severe influenza pandemic, primarily due to herd protection.

  4. The health and economic impact of vaccination with 7-valent pneumococcal vaccine (PCV7) during an annual influenza epidemic and influenza pandemic in China.

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    Caldwell, Ronald; Roberts, Craig S; An, Zhijie; Chen, Chieh-I; Wang, Bruce

    2015-07-24

    China has experienced several severe outbreaks of influenza over the past century: 1918, 1957, 1968, and 2009. Influenza itself can be deadly; however, the increase in mortality during an influenza outbreak is also attributable to secondary bacterial infections, specifically pneumococcal disease. Given the history of pandemic outbreaks and the associated morbidity and mortality, we investigated the cost-effectiveness of a PCV7 vaccination program in China from the context of typical and pandemic influenza seasons. A decision-analytic model was employed to evaluate the impact of a 7-valent pneumococcal vaccine (PCV7) infant vaccination program on the incidence, mortality, and cost associated with pneumococcal disease during a typical influenza season (15% flu incidence) and influenza pandemic (30% flu incidence) in China. The model incorporated Chinese data where available and included both direct and indirect (herd) effects on the unvaccinated population, assuming a point in time following the initial introduction of the vaccine where the impact of the indirect effects has reached a steady state, approximately seven years following the implementation of the vaccine program. Pneumococcal disease incidence, mortality, and costs were evaluated over a one year time horizon. Healthcare costs were calculated using a payer perspective and included vaccination program costs and direct medical expenditures from pneumococcal disease. The model predicted that routine PCV7 vaccination of infants in China would prevent 5,053,453 cases of pneumococcal disease and 76,714 deaths in a single year during a normal influenza season.The estimated incremental-cost-effectiveness ratios were ¥12,281 (US$1,900) per life-year saved and ¥13,737 (US$2,125) per quality-adjusted-life-year gained. During an influenza pandemic, the model estimated that routine vaccination with PCV7 would prevent 8,469,506 cases of pneumococcal disease and 707,526 deaths, and would be cost-saving. Routine

  5. Unsynchronized influenza epidemics in two neighboring subtropical cities

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    Xiujuan Tang

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Objective: The aim of this study was to examine the synchrony of influenza epidemics between Hong Kong and Shenzhen, two neighboring subtropical cities in South China. Methods: Laboratory-confirmed influenza data for the period January 2006 to December 2016 were obtained from the Shenzhen Center for Disease Control and Prevention and the Department of Health in Hong Kong. The population data were retrieved from the 2011 population censuses. The weekly rates of laboratory-confirmed influenza cases were compared between Shenzhen and Hong Kong. Results: Unsynchronized influenza epidemics between Hong Kong and Shenzhen were frequently observed during the study period. Influenza A/H1N1 caused a more severe pandemic in Hong Kong in 2009, but the subsequent seasonal epidemics showed similar magnitudes in both cities. Two influenza A/H3N2 dominant epidemic waves were seen in Hong Kong in 2015, but these epidemics were very minor in Shenzhen. More influenza B epidemics occurred in Shenzhen than in Hong Kong. Conclusions: Influenza epidemics appeared to be unsynchronized between Hong Kong and Shenzhen most of the time. Given the close geographical locations of these two cities, this could be due to the strikingly different age structures of their populations. Keywords: Influenza epidemics, Synchrony, Shenzhen, Hong Kong

  6. Influence of Media on Seasonal Influenza Epidemic Curves.

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    Saito, Satoshi; Saito, Norihiro; Itoga, Masamichi; Ozaki, Hiromi; Kimura, Toshiyuki; Okamura, Yuji; Murakami, Hiroshi; Kayaba, Hiroyuki

    2016-09-01

    Theoretical investigations predicting the epidemic curves of seasonal influenza have been demonstrated so far; however, there is little empirical research using ever accumulated epidemic curves. The effects of vaccine coverage and information distribution on influenza epidemics were evaluated. Four indices for epidemics (i.e., onset-peak duration, onset-end duration, ratio of the onset-peak duration to onset-end duration and steepness of epidemic curves) were defined, and the correlations between these indices and anti-flu drug prescription dose, vaccine coverage, the volume of media and search trend on influenza through internet were analyzed. Epidemiological data on seasonal influenza epidemics from 2002/2003 to 2013/2014 excluding 2009/2010 season were collected from National Institute of Infectious Diseases of Japan. The onset-peak duration and its ratio to onset-end duration correlated inversely with the volume of anti-flu drug prescription. Onset-peak duration correlated positively with media information volume on influenza. The steepness of the epidemic curve, and anti-flu drug prescription dose inversely correlated with the volume of media information. Pre-epidemic search trend and media volume on influenza correlated with the vaccine coverage in the season. Vaccine coverage had no strong effect on epidemic curve. Education through media has an effect on the epidemic curve of seasonal influenza. Copyright © 2016 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  7. Increases in absenteeism among health care workers in Hong Kong during influenza epidemics, 2004-2009.

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    Ip, Dennis K M; Lau, Eric H Y; Tam, Yat Hung; So, Hau Chi; Cowling, Benjamin J; Kwok, Henry K H

    2015-12-29

    Acute respiratory infections (ARI) are a major cause of sickness absenteeism among health care workers (HCWs) and contribute significantly to overall productivity loss particularly during influenza epidemics. The purpose of this study is to quantify the increases in absenteeism during epidemics including the 2009 influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 pandemic. We analysed administrative data to determine patterns of sickness absence among HCWs in Hong Kong from January 2004 through December 2009, and used multivariable linear regression model to estimate the excess all-cause and ARI-related sickness absenteeism rates during influenza epidemics. We found that influenza epidemics prior to the 2009 pandemic and during the 2009 pandemic were associated with 8.4 % (95 % CI: 5.6-11.2 %) and 57.7 % (95 % CI: 54.6-60.9 %) increases in overall sickness absence, and 26.5 % (95 % CI: 21.4-31.5 %) and 90.9 % (95 % CI: 85.2-96.6 %) increases in ARI-related sickness absence among HCWs in Hong Kong, respectively. Comparing different staff types, increases in overall absenteeism were highest among medical staff, during seasonal influenza epidemic periods (51.3 %, 95 % CI: 38.9-63.7 %) and the pandemic mitigation period (142.1 %, 95 % CI: 128.0-156.1 %). Influenza epidemics were associated with a substantial increase in sickness absence and productivity loss among HCWs in Hong Kong, and there was a much higher rate of absenteeism during the 2009 pandemic. These findings could inform better a more proactive workforce redistribution plans to allow for sufficient surge capacity in annual epidemics, and for pandemic preparedness.

  8. Continental synchronicity of human influenza virus epidemics despite climactic variation.

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    Geoghegan, Jemma L; Saavedra, Aldo F; Duchêne, Sebastián; Sullivan, Sheena; Barr, Ian; Holmes, Edward C

    2018-01-01

    The factors that determine the pattern and rate of spread of influenza virus at a continental-scale are uncertain. Although recent work suggests that influenza epidemics in the United States exhibit a strong geographical correlation, the spatiotemporal dynamics of influenza in Australia, a country and continent of approximately similar size and climate complexity but with a far smaller population, are not known. Using a unique combination of large-scale laboratory-confirmed influenza surveillance comprising >450,000 entries and genomic sequence data we determined the local-level spatial diffusion of this important human pathogen nationwide in Australia. We used laboratory-confirmed influenza data to characterize the spread of influenza virus across Australia during 2007-2016. The onset of established epidemics varied across seasons, with highly synchronized epidemics coinciding with the emergence of antigenically distinct viruses, particularly during the 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic. The onset of epidemics was largely synchronized between the most populous cities, even those separated by distances of >3000 km and those that experience vastly diverse climates. In addition, by analyzing global phylogeographic patterns we show that the synchronized dissemination of influenza across Australian cities involved multiple introductions from the global influenza population, coupled with strong domestic connectivity, rather than through the distinct radial patterns of geographic dispersal that are driven by work-flow transmission as observed in the United States. In addition, by comparing the spatial structure of influenza A and B, we found that these viruses tended to occupy different geographic regions, and peak in different seasons, perhaps indicative of moderate cross-protective immunity or viral interference effects. The highly synchronized outbreaks of influenza virus at a continental-scale revealed here highlight the importance of coordinated public health responses in the

  9. Influenza in Poland in 2013 and 2013/2014 epidemic season

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    Kondratiuk, Katarzyna; Czarkowski, Mirosław P; Hallmann-Szelińska, Ewelina; Staszewska, Ewa; Bednarska, Karolina; Cielebąk, Ewa; Brydak, Lidia B

    2016-01-01

    Analysis of epidemiological situation of influenza in Poland in 2013 and 2013/14 epidemic season in reference to previous years and seasons. Analysis was based on: 1) data collected within influenza routine surveillance system in Poland, including data published in annual bulletins “Infectious diseases and poisonings in Poland” as well as unpublished data gathered in the Department of Epidemiology of the NIPH-NIH; 2) data collected within influenza system - Sentinel, and beyond this system, concerning results of virological tests carried out in 2013/14 epidemic season in the Department of Influenza Research, National Influenza Center in the NIPHNIH and/or laboratories of provincial sanitary and epidemiological stations which are gathered in the National Influenza Center. Compared to 2012, the number of influenza and influenza-like cases increased more than twofold in 2013 in Poland. A total of 3 164 405 cases were reported. Incidence was 8 218.7 per 100,000 population (33 733.2 in 0-4 age group). As many as 0.45% of patients were referred to hospitals. According to the data of the Central Statistical Office, 115 deaths due to influenza were notified. Based on the data of the sanitary inspection (incomplete data), the percentage of population vaccinated against influenza was 2.4% (7.7% of persons aged more than 64 years). A total of 2 780 945 cases were registered in 2013/14 epidemic season. Its peak was reported in March 2014. Incidence was 7 224.0 per 100,000 population (35 172.8 in 0-4 age group). Compared to 2012/13 epidemic season, it was lower by 8.0%. Incidence rates ranged from 29 339.6 in pomorskie voivodeship to 1 306.5 in lubuskie voivodeship. Nearly a half of all cases (48.7%) were registered in children and adolescents up to 15 years. As many as 0.34% of patients were referred to hospitals (0.87% of persons aged more than 64 years). From the data of the Central Statistical Office transpires that 8 deaths due to influenza were reported in epidemic

  10. Phylogenetic and evolutionary history of influenza B viruses, which caused a large epidemic in 2011-2012, Taiwan.

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    Ji-Rong Yang

    Full Text Available The annual recurrence of the influenza epidemic is considered to be primarily associated with immune escape due to changes to the virus. In 2011-2012, the influenza B epidemic in Taiwan was unusually large, and influenza B was predominant for a long time. To investigate the genetic dynamics of influenza B viruses during the 2011-2012 epidemic, we analyzed the sequences of 4,386 influenza B viruses collected in Taiwan from 2004 to 2012. The data provided detailed insight into the flux patterns of multiple genotypes. We found that a re-emergent TW08-I virus, which was the major genotype and had co-circulated with the two others, TW08-II and TW08-III, from 2007 to 2009 in Taiwan, successively overtook TW08-II in March and then underwent a lineage switch in July 2011. This lineage switch was followed by the large epidemic in Taiwan. The whole-genome compositions and phylogenetic relationships of the representative viruses of various genotypes were compared to determine the viral evolutionary histories. We demonstrated that the large influenza B epidemic of 2011-2012 was caused by Yamagata lineage TW08-I viruses that were derived from TW04-II viruses in 2004-2005 through genetic drifts without detectable reassortments. The TW08-I viruses isolated in both 2011-2012 and 2007-2009 were antigenically similar, indicating that an influenza B virus have persisted for 5 years in antigenic stasis before causing a large epidemic. The results suggest that in addition to the emergence of new variants with mutations or reassortments, other factors, including the interference of multi-types or lineages of influenza viruses and the accumulation of susceptible hosts, can also affect the scale and time of an influenza B epidemic.

  11. Novel measurement of spreading pattern of influenza epidemic by using weighted standard distance method: retrospective spatial statistical study of influenza, Japan, 1999-2009.

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    Shobugawa, Yugo; Wiafe, Seth A; Saito, Reiko; Suzuki, Tsubasa; Inaida, Shinako; Taniguchi, Kiyosu; Suzuki, Hiroshi

    2012-06-19

    Annual influenza epidemics occur worldwide resulting in considerable morbidity and mortality. Spreading pattern of influenza is not well understood because it is often hampered by the quality of surveillance data that limits the reliability of analysis. In Japan, influenza is reported on a weekly basis from 5,000 hospitals and clinics nationwide under the scheme of the National Infectious Disease Surveillance. The collected data are available to the public as weekly reports which were summarized into number of patient visits per hospital or clinic in each of the 47 prefectures. From this surveillance data, we analyzed the spatial spreading patterns of influenza epidemics using weekly weighted standard distance (WSD) from the 1999/2000 through 2008/2009 influenza seasons in Japan. WSD is a single numerical value representing the spatial compactness of influenza outbreak, which is small in case of clustered distribution and large in case of dispersed distribution. We demonstrated that the weekly WSD value or the measure of spatial compactness of the distribution of reported influenza cases, decreased to its lowest value before each epidemic peak in nine out of ten seasons analyzed. The duration between the lowest WSD week and the peak week of influenza cases ranged from minus one week to twenty weeks. The duration showed significant negative association with the proportion of influenza A/H3N2 cases in early phase of each outbreak (correlation coefficient was -0.75, P = 0.012) and significant positive association with the proportion of influenza B cases in the early phase (correlation coefficient was 0.64, P = 0.045), but positively correlated with the proportion of influenza A/H1N1 strain cases (statistically not significant). It is assumed that the lowest WSD values just before influenza peaks are due to local outbreak which results in small standard distance values. As influenza cases disperse nationwide and an epidemic reaches its peak, WSD value changed to be a

  12. Novel measurement of spreading pattern of influenza epidemic by using weighted standard distance method: retrospective spatial statistical study of influenza, Japan, 1999–2009

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    Shobugawa Yugo

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Annual influenza epidemics occur worldwide resulting in considerable morbidity and mortality. Spreading pattern of influenza is not well understood because it is often hampered by the quality of surveillance data that limits the reliability of analysis. In Japan, influenza is reported on a weekly basis from 5,000 hospitals and clinics nationwide under the scheme of the National Infectious Disease Surveillance. The collected data are available to the public as weekly reports which were summarized into number of patient visits per hospital or clinic in each of the 47 prefectures. From this surveillance data, we analyzed the spatial spreading patterns of influenza epidemics using weekly weighted standard distance (WSD from the 1999/2000 through 2008/2009 influenza seasons in Japan. WSD is a single numerical value representing the spatial compactness of influenza outbreak, which is small in case of clustered distribution and large in case of dispersed distribution. Results We demonstrated that the weekly WSD value or the measure of spatial compactness of the distribution of reported influenza cases, decreased to its lowest value before each epidemic peak in nine out of ten seasons analyzed. The duration between the lowest WSD week and the peak week of influenza cases ranged from minus one week to twenty weeks. The duration showed significant negative association with the proportion of influenza A/H3N2 cases in early phase of each outbreak (correlation coefficient was −0.75, P = 0.012 and significant positive association with the proportion of influenza B cases in the early phase (correlation coefficient was 0.64, P = 0.045, but positively correlated with the proportion of influenza A/H1N1 strain cases (statistically not significant. It is assumed that the lowest WSD values just before influenza peaks are due to local outbreak which results in small standard distance values. As influenza cases disperse nationwide and an

  13. Novel measurement of spreading pattern of influenza epidemic by using weighted standard distance method: retrospective spatial statistical study of influenza, Japan, 1999–2009

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    Background Annual influenza epidemics occur worldwide resulting in considerable morbidity and mortality. Spreading pattern of influenza is not well understood because it is often hampered by the quality of surveillance data that limits the reliability of analysis. In Japan, influenza is reported on a weekly basis from 5,000 hospitals and clinics nationwide under the scheme of the National Infectious Disease Surveillance. The collected data are available to the public as weekly reports which were summarized into number of patient visits per hospital or clinic in each of the 47 prefectures. From this surveillance data, we analyzed the spatial spreading patterns of influenza epidemics using weekly weighted standard distance (WSD) from the 1999/2000 through 2008/2009 influenza seasons in Japan. WSD is a single numerical value representing the spatial compactness of influenza outbreak, which is small in case of clustered distribution and large in case of dispersed distribution. Results We demonstrated that the weekly WSD value or the measure of spatial compactness of the distribution of reported influenza cases, decreased to its lowest value before each epidemic peak in nine out of ten seasons analyzed. The duration between the lowest WSD week and the peak week of influenza cases ranged from minus one week to twenty weeks. The duration showed significant negative association with the proportion of influenza A/H3N2 cases in early phase of each outbreak (correlation coefficient was −0.75, P = 0.012) and significant positive association with the proportion of influenza B cases in the early phase (correlation coefficient was 0.64, P = 0.045), but positively correlated with the proportion of influenza A/H1N1 strain cases (statistically not significant). It is assumed that the lowest WSD values just before influenza peaks are due to local outbreak which results in small standard distance values. As influenza cases disperse nationwide and an epidemic reaches its peak

  14. Nonlinear dynamics of avian influenza epidemic models.

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    Liu, Sanhong; Ruan, Shigui; Zhang, Xinan

    2017-01-01

    Avian influenza is a zoonotic disease caused by the transmission of the avian influenza A virus, such as H5N1 and H7N9, from birds to humans. The avian influenza A H5N1 virus has caused more than 500 human infections worldwide with nearly a 60% death rate since it was first reported in Hong Kong in 1997. The four outbreaks of the avian influenza A H7N9 in China from March 2013 to June 2016 have resulted in 580 human cases including 202 deaths with a death rate of nearly 35%. In this paper, we construct two avian influenza bird-to-human transmission models with different growth laws of the avian population, one with logistic growth and the other with Allee effect, and analyze their dynamical behavior. We obtain a threshold value for the prevalence of avian influenza and investigate the local or global asymptotical stability of each equilibrium of these systems by using linear analysis technique or combining Liapunov function method and LaSalle's invariance principle, respectively. Moreover, we give necessary and sufficient conditions for the occurrence of periodic solutions in the avian influenza system with Allee effect of the avian population. Numerical simulations are also presented to illustrate the theoretical results. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. MEM spectral analysis for predicting influenza epidemics in Japan.

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    Sumi, Ayako; Kamo, Ken-ichi

    2012-03-01

    The prediction of influenza epidemics has long been the focus of attention in epidemiology and mathematical biology. In this study, we tested whether time series analysis was useful for predicting the incidence of influenza in Japan. The method of time series analysis we used consists of spectral analysis based on the maximum entropy method (MEM) in the frequency domain and the nonlinear least squares method in the time domain. Using this time series analysis, we analyzed the incidence data of influenza in Japan from January 1948 to December 1998; these data are unique in that they covered the periods of pandemics in Japan in 1957, 1968, and 1977. On the basis of the MEM spectral analysis, we identified the periodic modes explaining the underlying variations of the incidence data. The optimum least squares fitting (LSF) curve calculated with the periodic modes reproduced the underlying variation of the incidence data. An extension of the LSF curve could be used to predict the incidence of influenza quantitatively. Our study suggested that MEM spectral analysis would allow us to model temporal variations of influenza epidemics with multiple periodic modes much more effectively than by using the method of conventional time series analysis, which has been used previously to investigate the behavior of temporal variations in influenza data.

  16. Deriving a model for influenza epidemics from historical data.

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    Ray, Jaideep; Lefantzi, Sophia

    2011-09-01

    In this report we describe how we create a model for influenza epidemics from historical data collected from both civilian and military societies. We derive the model when the population of the society is unknown but the size of the epidemic is known. Our interest lies in estimating a time-dependent infection rate to within a multiplicative constant. The model form fitted is chosen for its similarity to published models for HIV and plague, enabling application of Bayesian techniques to discriminate among infectious agents during an emerging epidemic. We have developed models for the progression of influenza in human populations. The model is framed as a integral, and predicts the number of people who exhibit symptoms and seek care over a given time-period. The start and end of the time period form the limits of integration. The disease progression model, in turn, contains parameterized models for the incubation period and a time-dependent infection rate. The incubation period model is obtained from literature, and the parameters of the infection rate are fitted from historical data including both military and civilian populations. The calibrated infection rate models display a marked difference in which the 1918 Spanish Influenza pandemic differed from the influenza seasons in the US between 2001-2008 and the progression of H1N1 in Catalunya, Spain. The data for the 1918 pandemic was obtained from military populations, while the rest are country-wide or province-wide data from the twenty-first century. We see that the initial growth of infection in all cases were about the same; however, military populations were able to control the epidemic much faster i.e., the decay of the infection-rate curve is much higher. It is not clear whether this was because of the much higher level of organization present in a military society or the seriousness with which the 1918 pandemic was addressed. Each outbreak to which the influenza model was fitted yields a separate set of

  17. [Epidemiologic and economic effectiveness of school closure during influenza epidemics and pandemics].

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    Gendon, Iu Z; Vasil'ev, Iu M

    2012-01-01

    Epidemiologic and economic effectiveness of school closure during influenza epidemics and pandemics is discussed. Optimal effect of school closure is observed when this measure is taken at the start of the epidemic or pandemic and for a sufficiently long time. School closure during high morbidity among schoolchildren, in the middle (at the peak) and by the end of epidemic or pandemic does not influence significantly the spread of influenza or morbidity. Significant economic losses and other negative consequences of school closure are noted. School closure may be the most appropriate during the emergence of influenza pandemic when the pandemic vaccine is not yet available, however timely mass immunization of schoolchildren against influenza may be a more appropriate measure than school closure for the reduction of influenza morbidity and spread during seasonal influenza epidemics.

  18. Sickness Absenteeism Rate in Iranian Schools during the 2009 Epidemic of Type a Influenza

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    Pourabbasi, Ata; Shirvani, Mahbubeh Ebrahimnegad; Khashayar, Patricia

    2012-01-01

    Influenza pandemic was a global event in 2009 and intraschool transmission was its main spread method. The present study was designed to evaluate the absenteeism rate during the type A influenza epidemic. Four hundred and eight students from both a guidance school and high school in the Iranian capital were recruited in this retrospective study.…

  19. The threshold of a stochastic avian-human influenza epidemic model with psychological effect

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    Zhang, Fengrong; Zhang, Xinhong

    2018-02-01

    In this paper, a stochastic avian-human influenza epidemic model with psychological effect in human population and saturation effect within avian population is investigated. This model describes the transmission of avian influenza among avian population and human population in random environments. For stochastic avian-only system, persistence in the mean and extinction of the infected avian population are studied. For the avian-human influenza epidemic system, sufficient conditions for the existence of an ergodic stationary distribution are obtained. Furthermore, a threshold of this stochastic model which determines the outcome of the disease is obtained. Finally, numerical simulations are given to support the theoretical results.

  20. Annually repeated influenza vaccination improves humoral responses to several influenza virus strains in healthy elderly

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    I.A. de Bruijn (Iris); E.J. Remarque (Edmond); W.E.Ph. Beyer (Walter); S. le Cessie (Saskia); N. Masurel (Nic); G.L. Ligthart (Gerard)

    1997-01-01

    textabstractThe benefit of annually repeated influenza vaccination on antibody formation is still under debate. In this study the effect of annually repeated influenza vaccination on haemagglutination inhibiting (HI) antibody formation in the elderly is investigated. Between 1990 and 1993 healthy

  1. Sickness absenteeism rate in Iranian schools during the 2009 epidemic of type a influenza.

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    Pourabbasi, Ata; Shirvani, Mahbubeh Ebrahimnegad; Khashayar, Patricia

    2012-02-01

    Influenza pandemic was a global event in 2009 and intraschool transmission was its main spread method. The present study was designed to evaluate the absenteeism rate during the type A influenza epidemic. Four hundred and eight students from both a guidance school and high school in the Iranian capital were recruited in this retrospective study. The number of days of absenteeism, since the beginning of the school year until the end of the epidemic was recorded. Two hundred and thirteen students missed school during the disease epidemic because of related causes. In other words, 581 person day absences were reported during this period. The influenza pandemic has led to an increase in the absenteeism rate and may negatively affect the academic performance of the students. Teaching precautionary measures is an effective tool in reducing the number of days of sickness.

  2. Sequential detection of influenza epidemics by the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test

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    Closas Pau

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Influenza is a well known and common human respiratory infection, causing significant morbidity and mortality every year. Despite Influenza variability, fast and reliable outbreak detection is required for health resource planning. Clinical health records, as published by the Diagnosticat database in Catalonia, host useful data for probabilistic detection of influenza outbreaks. Methods This paper proposes a statistical method to detect influenza epidemic activity. Non-epidemic incidence rates are modeled against the exponential distribution, and the maximum likelihood estimate for the decaying factor λ is calculated. The sequential detection algorithm updates the parameter as new data becomes available. Binary epidemic detection of weekly incidence rates is assessed by Kolmogorov-Smirnov test on the absolute difference between the empirical and the cumulative density function of the estimated exponential distribution with significance level 0 ≤ α ≤ 1. Results The main advantage with respect to other approaches is the adoption of a statistically meaningful test, which provides an indicator of epidemic activity with an associated probability. The detection algorithm was initiated with parameter λ0 = 3.8617 estimated from the training sequence (corresponding to non-epidemic incidence rates of the 2008-2009 influenza season and sequentially updated. Kolmogorov-Smirnov test detected the following weeks as epidemic for each influenza season: 50−10 (2008-2009 season, 38−50 (2009-2010 season, weeks 50−9 (2010-2011 season and weeks 3 to 12 for the current 2011-2012 season. Conclusions Real medical data was used to assess the validity of the approach, as well as to construct a realistic statistical model of weekly influenza incidence rates in non-epidemic periods. For the tested data, the results confirmed the ability of the algorithm to detect the start and the end of epidemic periods. In general, the proposed test could

  3. On the relative role of different age groups in influenza epidemics.

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    Worby, Colin J; Chaves, Sandra S; Wallinga, Jacco; Lipsitch, Marc; Finelli, Lyn; Goldstein, Edward

    2015-12-01

    The identification of key "driver" groups in influenza epidemics is of much interest for the implementation of effective public health response strategies, including vaccination programs. However, the relative importance of different age groups in propagating epidemics is uncertain. During a communicable disease outbreak, some groups may be disproportionately represented during the outbreak's ascent due to increased susceptibility and/or contact rates. Such groups or subpopulations can be identified by considering the proportion of cases within the subpopulation occurring before (Bp) and after the epidemic peak (Ap) to calculate the subpopulation's relative risk, RR=Bp/Ap. We estimated RR for several subpopulations (age groups) using data on laboratory-confirmed US influenza hospitalizations during epidemics between 2009-2014. Additionally, we simulated various influenza outbreaks in an age-stratified population, relating the RR to the impact of vaccination in each subpopulation on the epidemic's initial effective reproductive number R_e(0). We found that children aged 5-17 had the highest estimates of RR during the five largest influenza A outbreaks, though the relative magnitude of RR in this age group compared to other age groups varied, being highest for the 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic. For the 2010-2011 and 2012-2013 influenza B epidemics, adults aged 18-49, and 0-4 year-olds had the highest estimates of RR respectively. For 83% of simulated epidemics, the group with the highest RR was also the group for which initial distribution of a given quantity of vaccine would result in the largest reduction of R_e(0). In the largest 40% of simulated outbreaks, the group with the highest RR and the largest vaccination impact was children 5-17. While the relative importance of different age groups in propagating influenza outbreaks varies, children aged 5-17 play the leading role during the largest influenza A epidemics. Extra vaccination efforts for this group may contribute

  4. Using the information on cosmic rays to predict influenza epidemics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yu, Z.D.

    1985-01-01

    A correlation between the incidence of influenza pandemics and increased cosmic ray activity is made. A correlation is also made between the occurrence of these pandemics and the appearance of bright novae, e.g., Nova Eta Car. Four indices based on increased cosmic ray activity and novae are proposed to predict future influenza pandemics and viral antigenic shifts

  5. Non-stationary dynamics of climate variability in synchronous influenza epidemics in Japan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Onozuka, Daisuke; Hagihara, Akihito

    2015-09-01

    Seasonal variation in the incidence of influenza is widely assumed. However, few studies have examined non-stationary relationships between global climate factors and influenza epidemics. We examined the monthly incidence of influenza in Fukuoka, Japan, from 2000 to 2012 using cross-wavelet coherency analysis to assess the patterns of associations between indices for the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The monthly incidence of influenza showed cycles of 1 year with the IOD and 2 years with ENSO indices (Multivariate, Niño 4, and Niño 3.4). These associations were non-stationary and appeared to have major influences on the synchrony of influenza epidemics. Our study provides quantitative evidence that non-stationary associations have major influences on synchrony between the monthly incidence of influenza and the dynamics of the IOD and ENSO. Our results call for the consideration of non-stationary patterns of association between influenza cases and climatic factors in early warning systems.

  6. Different responses of influenza epidemic to weather factors among Shanghai, Hong Kong, and British Columbia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xi-Ling; Yang, Lin; He, Dai-Hai; Chiu, Alice Py; Chan, Kwok-Hung; Chan, King-Pan; Zhou, Maigeng; Wong, Chit-Ming; Guo, Qing; Hu, Wenbiao

    2017-06-01

    Weather factors have long been considered as key sources for regional heterogeneity of influenza seasonal patterns. As influenza peaks coincide with both high and low temperature in subtropical cities, weather factors may nonlinearly or interactively affect influenza activity. This study aims to assess the nonlinear and interactive effects of weather factors with influenza activity and compare the responses of influenza epidemic to weather factors in two subtropical regions of southern China (Shanghai and Hong Kong) and one temperate province of Canada (British Columbia). Weekly data on influenza activity and weather factors (i.e., mean temperature and relative humidity (RH)) were obtained from pertinent government departments for the three regions. Absolute humidity (AH) was measured by vapor pressure (VP), which could be converted from temperature and RH. Generalized additive models were used to assess the exposure-response relationship between weather factors and influenza virus activity. Interactions of weather factors were further assessed by bivariate response models and stratification analyses. The exposure-response curves of temperature and VP, but not RH, were consistent among three regions/cities. Bivariate response model revealed a significant interactive effect between temperature (or VP) and RH (P weather factors in developing a universal model to explain seasonal outbreaks of influenza. However, further research is needed to assess the association between weather factors and influenza activity in a wider context of social and environmental conditions.

  7. Sensitivity analysis of an individual-based model for simulation of influenza epidemics.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elaine O Nsoesie

    Full Text Available Individual-based epidemiology models are increasingly used in the study of influenza epidemics. Several studies on influenza dynamics and evaluation of intervention measures have used the same incubation and infectious period distribution parameters based on the natural history of influenza. A sensitivity analysis evaluating the influence of slight changes to these parameters (in addition to the transmissibility would be useful for future studies and real-time modeling during an influenza pandemic.In this study, we examined individual and joint effects of parameters and ranked parameters based on their influence on the dynamics of simulated epidemics. We also compared the sensitivity of the model across synthetic social networks for Montgomery County in Virginia and New York City (and surrounding metropolitan regions with demographic and rural-urban differences. In addition, we studied the effects of changing the mean infectious period on age-specific epidemics. The research was performed from a public health standpoint using three relevant measures: time to peak, peak infected proportion and total attack rate. We also used statistical methods in the design and analysis of the experiments. The results showed that: (i minute changes in the transmissibility and mean infectious period significantly influenced the attack rate; (ii the mean of the incubation period distribution appeared to be sufficient for determining its effects on the dynamics of epidemics; (iii the infectious period distribution had the strongest influence on the structure of the epidemic curves; (iv the sensitivity of the individual-based model was consistent across social networks investigated in this study and (v age-specific epidemics were sensitive to changes in the mean infectious period irrespective of the susceptibility of the other age groups. These findings suggest that small changes in some of the disease model parameters can significantly influence the uncertainty

  8. Influenza epidemics, seasonality, and the effects of cold weather on cardiac mortality

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    Background More people die in the winter from cardiac disease, and there are competing hypotheses to explain this. The authors conducted a study in 48 US cities to determine how much of the seasonal pattern in cardiac deaths could be explained by influenza epidemics, whether that allowed a more parsimonious control for season than traditional spline models, and whether such control changed the short term association with temperature. Methods The authors obtained counts of daily cardiac deaths and of emergency hospital admissions of the elderly for influenza during 1992–2000. Quasi-Poisson regression models were conducted estimating the association between daily cardiac mortality, and temperature. Results Controlling for influenza admissions provided a more parsimonious model with better Generalized Cross-Validation, lower residual serial correlation, and better captured Winter peaks. The temperature-response function was not greatly affected by adjusting for influenza. The pooled estimated increase in risk for a temperature decrease from 0 to −5°C was 1.6% (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.1-2.1%). Influenza accounted for 2.3% of cardiac deaths over this period. Conclusions The results suggest that including epidemic data explained most of the irregular seasonal pattern (about 18% of the total seasonal variation), allowing more parsimonious models than when adjusting for seasonality only with smooth functions of time. The effect of cold temperature is not confounded by epidemics. PMID:23025494

  9. FluTE, a publicly available stochastic influenza epidemic simulation model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dennis L Chao

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Mathematical and computer models of epidemics have contributed to our understanding of the spread of infectious disease and the measures needed to contain or mitigate them. To help prepare for future influenza seasonal epidemics or pandemics, we developed a new stochastic model of the spread of influenza across a large population. Individuals in this model have realistic social contact networks, and transmission and infections are based on the current state of knowledge of the natural history of influenza. The model has been calibrated so that outcomes are consistent with the 1957/1958 Asian A(H2N2 and 2009 pandemic A(H1N1 influenza viruses. We present examples of how this model can be used to study the dynamics of influenza epidemics in the United States and simulate how to mitigate or delay them using pharmaceutical interventions and social distancing measures. Computer simulation models play an essential role in informing public policy and evaluating pandemic preparedness plans. We have made the source code of this model publicly available to encourage its use and further development.

  10. FluTE, a publicly available stochastic influenza epidemic simulation model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chao, Dennis L; Halloran, M Elizabeth; Obenchain, Valerie J; Longini, Ira M

    2010-01-29

    Mathematical and computer models of epidemics have contributed to our understanding of the spread of infectious disease and the measures needed to contain or mitigate them. To help prepare for future influenza seasonal epidemics or pandemics, we developed a new stochastic model of the spread of influenza across a large population. Individuals in this model have realistic social contact networks, and transmission and infections are based on the current state of knowledge of the natural history of influenza. The model has been calibrated so that outcomes are consistent with the 1957/1958 Asian A(H2N2) and 2009 pandemic A(H1N1) influenza viruses. We present examples of how this model can be used to study the dynamics of influenza epidemics in the United States and simulate how to mitigate or delay them using pharmaceutical interventions and social distancing measures. Computer simulation models play an essential role in informing public policy and evaluating pandemic preparedness plans. We have made the source code of this model publicly available to encourage its use and further development.

  11. On avian influenza epidemic models with time delay.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Sanhong; Ruan, Shigui; Zhang, Xinan

    2015-12-01

    After the outbreak of the first avian influenza A virus (H5N1) in Hong Kong in 1997, another avian influenza A virus (H7N9) crossed the species barrier in mainland China in 2013 and 2014 and caused more than 400 human cases with a death rate of nearly 40%. In this paper, we take account of the incubation periods of avian influenza A virus and construct a bird-to-human transmission model with different time delays in the avian and human populations combining the survival probability of the infective avian and human populations at the latent time. By analyzing the dynamical behavior of the model, we obtain a threshold value for the prevalence of avian influenza and investigate local and global asymptotical stability of equilibria of the system.

  12. Global Dynamics of Avian Influenza Epidemic Models with Psychological Effect

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sanhong Liu

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Cross-sectional surveys conducted in Thailand and China after the outbreaks of the avian influenza A H5N1 and H7N9 viruses show a high degree of awareness of human avian influenza in both urban and rural populations, a higher level of proper hygienic practice among urban residents, and in particular a dramatically reduced number of visits to live markets in urban population after the influenza A H7N9 outbreak in China in 2013. In this paper, taking into account the psychological effect toward avian influenza in the human population, a bird-to-human transmission model in which the avian population exhibits saturation effect is constructed. The dynamical behavior of the model is studied by using the basic reproduction number. The results demonstrate that the saturation effect within avian population and the psychological effect in human population cannot change the stability of equilibria but can affect the number of infected humans if the disease is prevalent. Numerical simulations are given to support the theoretical results and sensitivity analyses of the basic reproduction number in terms of model parameters that are performed to seek for effective control measures for avian influenza.

  13. Global dynamics of avian influenza epidemic models with psychological effect.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Sanhong; Pang, Liuyong; Ruan, Shigui; Zhang, Xinan

    2015-01-01

    Cross-sectional surveys conducted in Thailand and China after the outbreaks of the avian influenza A H5N1 and H7N9 viruses show a high degree of awareness of human avian influenza in both urban and rural populations, a higher level of proper hygienic practice among urban residents, and in particular a dramatically reduced number of visits to live markets in urban population after the influenza A H7N9 outbreak in China in 2013. In this paper, taking into account the psychological effect toward avian influenza in the human population, a bird-to-human transmission model in which the avian population exhibits saturation effect is constructed. The dynamical behavior of the model is studied by using the basic reproduction number. The results demonstrate that the saturation effect within avian population and the psychological effect in human population cannot change the stability of equilibria but can affect the number of infected humans if the disease is prevalent. Numerical simulations are given to support the theoretical results and sensitivity analyses of the basic reproduction number in terms of model parameters that are performed to seek for effective control measures for avian influenza.

  14. Surveillance and vaccine effectiveness of an influenza epidemic predominated by vaccine-mismatched influenza B/Yamagata-lineage viruses in Taiwan, 2011-12 season.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yi-Chun Lo

    Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: The 2011-12 trivalent influenza vaccine contains a strain of influenza B/Victoria-lineage viruses. Despite free provision of influenza vaccine among target populations, an epidemic predominated by influenza B/Yamagata-lineage viruses occurred during the 2011-12 season in Taiwan. We characterized this vaccine-mismatched epidemic and estimated influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE. METHODS: Influenza activity was monitored through sentinel viral surveillance, emergency department (ED and outpatient influenza-like illness (ILI syndromic surveillance, and case-based surveillance of influenza with complications and deaths. VE against laboratory-confirmed influenza was evaluated through a case-control study on ILI patients enrolled into sentinel viral surveillance. Logistic regression was used to estimate VE adjusted for confounding factors. RESULTS: During July 2011-June 2012, influenza B accounted for 2,382 (72.5% of 3,285 influenza-positive respiratory specimens. Of 329 influenza B viral isolates with antigen characterization, 287 (87.2% were B/Yamagata-lineage viruses. Proportions of ED and outpatient visits being ILI-related increased from November 2011 to January 2012. Of 1,704 confirmed cases of influenza with complications, including 154 (9.0% deaths, influenza B accounted for 1,034 (60.7% of the confirmed cases and 103 (66.9% of the deaths. Reporting rates of confirmed influenza with complications and deaths were 73.5 and 6.6 per 1,000,000, respectively, highest among those aged ≥65 years, 50-64 years, 3-6 years, and 0-2 years. Adjusted VE was -31% (95% CI: -80, 4 against all influenza, 54% (95% CI: 3, 78 against influenza A, and -66% (95% CI: -132, -18 against influenza B. CONCLUSIONS: This influenza epidemic in Taiwan was predominated by B/Yamagata-lineage viruses unprotected by the 2011-12 trivalent vaccine. The morbidity and mortality of this vaccine-mismatched epidemic warrants careful consideration of introducing a

  15. THE ANTIGENIC POTENCY OF EPIDEMIC INFLUENZA VIRUS FOLLOWING INACTIVATION BY ULTRAVIOLET RADIATION

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salk, Jonas E.; Lavin, G. I.; Francis, Thomas

    1940-01-01

    A study of the antigenic potency of influenza virus inactivated by ultraviolet radiation has been made. Virus so inactivated is still capable of functioning as an immunizing agent when given to mice by the intraperitoneal route. In high concentrations inactivated virus appears to be nearly as effective as active virus but when quantitative comparisons of the immunity induced by different dilutions are made, it is seen that a hundredfold loss in immunizing capacity occurs during inactivation. Virus in suspensions prepared from the lungs of infected mice is inactivated more rapidly than virus in tissue culture medium. A standard for the comparison of vaccines of epidemic influenza virus is proposed. PMID:19871057

  16. The role of subway travel in an influenza epidemic: a New York City simulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cooley, Philip; Brown, Shawn; Cajka, James; Chasteen, Bernadette; Ganapathi, Laxminarayana; Grefenstette, John; Hollingsworth, Craig R; Lee, Bruce Y; Levine, Burton; Wheaton, William D; Wagener, Diane K

    2011-10-01

    The interactions of people using public transportation in large metropolitan areas may help spread an influenza epidemic. An agent-based model computer simulation of New York City's (NYC's) five boroughs was developed that incorporated subway ridership into a Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered disease model framework. The model contains a total of 7,847,465 virtual people. Each person resides in one of the five boroughs of NYC and has a set of socio-demographic characteristics and daily behaviors that include age, sex, employment status, income, occupation, and household location and membership. The model simulates the interactions of subway riders with their workplaces, schools, households, and community activities. It was calibrated using historical data from the 1957-1958 influenza pandemics and from NYC travel surveys. The surveys were necessary to enable inclusion of subway riders into the model. The model results estimate that if influenza did occur in NYC with the characteristics of the 1957-1958 pandemic, 4% of transmissions would occur on the subway. This suggests that interventions targeted at subway riders would be relatively ineffective in containing the epidemic. A number of hypothetical examples demonstrate this feature. This information could prove useful to public health officials planning responses to epidemics.

  17. Accurate estimation of influenza epidemics using Google search data via ARGO.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Shihao; Santillana, Mauricio; Kou, S C

    2015-11-24

    Accurate real-time tracking of influenza outbreaks helps public health officials make timely and meaningful decisions that could save lives. We propose an influenza tracking model, ARGO (AutoRegression with GOogle search data), that uses publicly available online search data. In addition to having a rigorous statistical foundation, ARGO outperforms all previously available Google-search-based tracking models, including the latest version of Google Flu Trends, even though it uses only low-quality search data as input from publicly available Google Trends and Google Correlate websites. ARGO not only incorporates the seasonality in influenza epidemics but also captures changes in people's online search behavior over time. ARGO is also flexible, self-correcting, robust, and scalable, making it a potentially powerful tool that can be used for real-time tracking of other social events at multiple temporal and spatial resolutions.

  18. Comparison of filtering methods for the modeling and retrospective forecasting of influenza epidemics.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wan Yang

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available A variety of filtering methods enable the recursive estimation of system state variables and inference of model parameters. These methods have found application in a range of disciplines and settings, including engineering design and forecasting, and, over the last two decades, have been applied to infectious disease epidemiology. For any system of interest, the ideal filter depends on the nonlinearity and complexity of the model to which it is applied, the quality and abundance of observations being entrained, and the ultimate application (e.g. forecast, parameter estimation, etc.. Here, we compare the performance of six state-of-the-art filter methods when used to model and forecast influenza activity. Three particle filters--a basic particle filter (PF with resampling and regularization, maximum likelihood estimation via iterated filtering (MIF, and particle Markov chain Monte Carlo (pMCMC--and three ensemble filters--the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF, the ensemble adjustment Kalman filter (EAKF, and the rank histogram filter (RHF--were used in conjunction with a humidity-forced susceptible-infectious-recovered-susceptible (SIRS model and weekly estimates of influenza incidence. The modeling frameworks, first validated with synthetic influenza epidemic data, were then applied to fit and retrospectively forecast the historical incidence time series of seven influenza epidemics during 2003-2012, for 115 cities in the United States. Results suggest that when using the SIRS model the ensemble filters and the basic PF are more capable of faithfully recreating historical influenza incidence time series, while the MIF and pMCMC do not perform as well for multimodal outbreaks. For forecast of the week with the highest influenza activity, the accuracies of the six model-filter frameworks are comparable; the three particle filters perform slightly better predicting peaks 1-5 weeks in the future; the ensemble filters are more accurate predicting peaks in

  19. Influenza newspaper reports and the influenza epidemic: an observational study in Fukuoka City, Japan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hagihara, Akihito; Onozuka, Daisuke; Miyazaki, Shougo; Abe, Takeru

    2015-01-01

    Objectives We examined whether the weekly number of newspaper articles reporting on influenza was related to the incidence of influenza in a large city. Design Prospective, non-randomised, observational study. Setting Registry data of influenza cases in Fukuoka City, Japan. Participants A total of 83 613 cases of influenza cases that occurred between October 1999 and March 2007 in Fukuoka City, Japan. Main outcome measure A linear model with autoregressive time series errors was fitted to time series data on the incidence of influenza and the accumulated number of influenza-related newspaper articles with different time lags in Fukuoka City, Japan. In order to obtain further evidence that the number of newspaper articles a week with specific time lags is related to the incidence of influenza, Granger causality was also tested. Results Of the 16 models including ‘number of newspaper articles’ with different time lags between 2 and 17 weeks (xt-2 to t-17), the β coefficients of ‘number of newspaper articles’ at time lags between t-5 and t-13 were significant. However, the β coefficients of ‘number of newspaper articles’ that are significant with respect to the Granger causality tests (pnewspaper articles at time lags between t-6 and t-10 (time shift of 10 weeks, β=−0.301, pnewspaper articles reporting on influenza in a week was related to the incidence of influenza 6–10 weeks after media coverage in a large city in Japan. PMID:26719323

  20. Influenza newspaper reports and the influenza epidemic: an observational study in Fukuoka City, Japan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hagihara, Akihito; Onozuka, Daisuke; Miyazaki, Shougo; Abe, Takeru

    2015-12-30

    We examined whether the weekly number of newspaper articles reporting on influenza was related to the incidence of influenza in a large city. Prospective, non-randomised, observational study. Registry data of influenza cases in Fukuoka City, Japan. A total of 83,613 cases of influenza cases that occurred between October 1999 and March 2007 in Fukuoka City, Japan. A linear model with autoregressive time series errors was fitted to time series data on the incidence of influenza and the accumulated number of influenza-related newspaper articles with different time lags in Fukuoka City, Japan. In order to obtain further evidence that the number of newspaper articles a week with specific time lags is related to the incidence of influenza, Granger causality was also tested. Of the 16 models including 'number of newspaper articles' with different time lags between 2 and 17 weeks (xt-2 to t-17), the β coefficients of 'number of newspaper articles' at time lags between t-5 and t-13 were significant. However, the β coefficients of 'number of newspaper articles' that are significant with respect to the Granger causality tests (p<0.05) were the weekly number of newspaper articles at time lags between t-6 and t-10 (time shift of 10 weeks, β=-0.301, p<0.01; time shift of 9 weeks, β=-0.200, p<0.01; time shift of 8 weeks, β=-0.156, p<0.01; time shift of 7 weeks, β=-0.122, p<0.05; time shift of 6 weeks, β=-0.113, p<0.05). We found that the number of newspaper articles reporting on influenza in a week was related to the incidence of influenza 6-10 weeks after media coverage in a large city in Japan. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

  1. Estimation of sickness absenteeism among Italian healthcare workers during seasonal influenza epidemics.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Michela Gianino

    Full Text Available To analyze absenteeism among healthcare workers (HCWs at a large Italian hospital and to estimate the increase in absenteeism that occurred during seasonal flu periods.Retrospective observational study.The absenteeism data were divided into three "epidemic periods," starting at week 42 of one year and terminating at week 17 of the following year (2010-2011, 2011-2012, 2012-2013, and three "non-epidemic periods," defined as week 18 to week 41 and used as baseline data. The excess of the absenteeism occurring among HCWs during periods of epidemic influenza in comparison with baseline was estimated. All data, obtained from Hospital's databases, were collected for each of the following six job categories: medical doctors, technical executives (i.e., pharmacists, nurses and allied health professionals (i.e., radiographers, other executives (i.e., engineers, nonmedical support staff, and administrative staff. The HCWs were classified by: in and no-contact; vaccinated and unvaccinated.5,544, 5,369, and 5,291 workers in three years were studied. The average duration of absenteeism during the epidemic periods increased among all employees by +2.07 days/person (from 2.99 to 5.06, and the relative increase ranged from 64-94% among the different job categories. Workers not in contact with patients experienced a slightly greater increase in absenteeism (+2.28 days/person, from 2.73 to 5.01 than did employees in contact with patients (+2.04, from 3.04 to 5.08. The vaccination rate among HCWs was below 3%, however the higher excess of absenteeism rate among unvaccinated in comparison with vaccinated workers was observed during the epidemic periods (2.09 vs 1.45 days/person.The influenza-related absenteeism during epidemic periods was quantified as totaling more than 11,000 days/year at the Italian hospital studied. This result confirms the economic impact of sick leave on healthcare systems and stresses on the necessity of encouraging HCWs to be immunized

  2. Estimation of sickness absenteeism among Italian healthcare workers during seasonal influenza epidemics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gianino, Maria Michela; Politano, Gianfranco; Scarmozzino, Antonio; Charrier, Lorena; Testa, Marco; Giacomelli, Sebastian; Benso, Alfredo; Zotti, Carla Maria

    2017-01-01

    To analyze absenteeism among healthcare workers (HCWs) at a large Italian hospital and to estimate the increase in absenteeism that occurred during seasonal flu periods. Retrospective observational study. The absenteeism data were divided into three "epidemic periods," starting at week 42 of one year and terminating at week 17 of the following year (2010-2011, 2011-2012, 2012-2013), and three "non-epidemic periods," defined as week 18 to week 41 and used as baseline data. The excess of the absenteeism occurring among HCWs during periods of epidemic influenza in comparison with baseline was estimated. All data, obtained from Hospital's databases, were collected for each of the following six job categories: medical doctors, technical executives (i.e., pharmacists), nurses and allied health professionals (i.e., radiographers), other executives (i.e., engineers), nonmedical support staff, and administrative staff. The HCWs were classified by: in and no-contact; vaccinated and unvaccinated. 5,544, 5,369, and 5,291 workers in three years were studied. The average duration of absenteeism during the epidemic periods increased among all employees by +2.07 days/person (from 2.99 to 5.06), and the relative increase ranged from 64-94% among the different job categories. Workers not in contact with patients experienced a slightly greater increase in absenteeism (+2.28 days/person, from 2.73 to 5.01) than did employees in contact with patients (+2.04, from 3.04 to 5.08). The vaccination rate among HCWs was below 3%, however the higher excess of absenteeism rate among unvaccinated in comparison with vaccinated workers was observed during the epidemic periods (2.09 vs 1.45 days/person). The influenza-related absenteeism during epidemic periods was quantified as totaling more than 11,000 days/year at the Italian hospital studied. This result confirms the economic impact of sick leave on healthcare systems and stresses on the necessity of encouraging HCWs to be immunized against

  3. Seasonal Influenza: An Overview

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Christina; Freedman, Marian

    2009-01-01

    Seasonal influenza is a major cause of morbidity and mortality in the United States. It also has major social and economic consequences in the form of high rates of absenteeism from school and work as well as significant treatment and hospitalization costs. In fact, annual influenza epidemics and the resulting deaths and lost days of productivity…

  4. Immune response to inactivated influenza virus vaccine: antibody reactivity with epidemic influenza B viruses of two highly distinct evolutionary lineages.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pyhälä, R; Kleemola, M; Kumpulainen, V; Vartiainen, E; Lappi, S; Pönkä, A; Cantell, K

    1992-01-01

    Vaccination of adults (healthy female employees potentially capable of transmitting influenza to high-risk persons; n = 104) in autumn 1990 with a trivalent influenza virus vaccine containing B/Yamagata/16/88 induced a low antibody response to B/Finland/150/90, a recent variant of B/Victoria/2/87-like viruses, as compared with the antibody response to B/Finland/172/91, a current variant in the lineage of B/Yamagata/16/88-like viruses. Up to the end of the epidemic season, the antibody status declined but was still significantly better than before the vaccination. The results suggest that the vaccine strain was appropriate for the outbreak of 1990 to 1991 in Finland, but may provide unsatisfactory protection against B/Victoria/2/87-like viruses. Evidence is given that use of Madin-Darby canine kidney (MDCK)-grown virus as an antigen in the haemagglutination inhibition test (HI) may provide more reliable information about the protective antibodies than use of untreated or ether-treated egg-grown viruses. Significantly higher postvaccination and postepidemic antibody titres were recorded among subjects who exhibited the antibody before vaccination than among seronegative subjects. A significantly higher response rate among initially seronegative people than among seropositive people was recorded for antibody to B/Finland/150/90, but no clear evidence was obtained that the pre-existing antibody could have had a negative effect on the antibody production.

  5. Universal influenza vaccines, science fiction or soon reality?

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Vries, Rory D; Altenburg, Arwen F; Rimmelzwaan, Guus F

    2015-01-01

    Currently used influenza vaccines are only effective when the vaccine strains match the epidemic strains antigenically. To this end, seasonal influenza vaccines must be updated almost annually. Furthermore, seasonal influenza vaccines fail to afford protection against antigenically distinct pandemic influenza viruses. Because of an ever-present threat of the next influenza pandemic and the continuous emergence of drift variants of seasonal influenza A viruses, there is a need for an universal influenza vaccine that induces protective immunity against all influenza A viruses. Here, we summarize some of the efforts that are ongoing to develop universal influenza vaccines.

  6. Model-Based Comprehensive Analysis of School Closure Policies for Mitigating Influenza Epidemics and Pandemics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fumanelli, Laura; Ajelli, Marco; Merler, Stefano; Ferguson, Neil M; Cauchemez, Simon

    2016-01-01

    School closure policies are among the non-pharmaceutical measures taken into consideration to mitigate influenza epidemics and pandemics spread. However, a systematic review of the effectiveness of alternative closure policies has yet to emerge. Here we perform a model-based analysis of four types of school closure, ranging from the nationwide closure of all schools at the same time to reactive gradual closure, starting from class-by-class, then grades and finally the whole school. We consider policies based on triggers that are feasible to monitor, such as school absenteeism and national ILI surveillance system. We found that, under specific constraints on the average number of weeks lost per student, reactive school-by-school, gradual, and county-wide closure give comparable outcomes in terms of optimal infection attack rate reduction, peak incidence reduction or peak delay. Optimal implementations generally require short closures of one week each; this duration is long enough to break the transmission chain without leading to unnecessarily long periods of class interruption. Moreover, we found that gradual and county closures may be slightly more easily applicable in practice as they are less sensitive to the value of the excess absenteeism threshold triggering the start of the intervention. These findings suggest that policy makers could consider school closure policies more diffusely as response strategy to influenza epidemics and pandemics, and the fact that some countries already have some experience of gradual or regional closures for seasonal influenza outbreaks demonstrates that logistic and feasibility challenges of school closure strategies can be to some extent overcome.

  7. [The characteristics of epidemic influenza A and B virus strains circulating in Russia during the 2007-2008 season].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ivanova, V T; Trushakova, S V; Oskerko, T A; Shevchenko, E S; Kolobukhina, L V; Vartanian, R V; Beliakova, N V; Iatsyshina, S B; Feodoritova, E L; Zueva, N D; Burtseva, E I

    2009-01-01

    In 2007-2008 in Russia, the epidemic upsurge of influenza morbidity was caused by the active circulation of influenza A(H1N1, A(H3N2), and B viruses. The center for Ecology and Epidemiology of Influenza studied 334 epidemic strains. The results of a comparative study of the svirus specificity of commercial test systems (AmpliSens Influenza virus A/B and AmpliSens Influenza virus A/H5N1) for the polymerase chain reaction diagnosis and virological assays, including virus isolation, revealed their high correlation, which confirms that they may be expensively used to monitor the circulation of influenza viruses in the Russian Federation. All the strains were isolated in the MDCK cell culture. Influenza A(H1N1) viruses (n = 127) were antigenic variants of the reference strains A/Solomon Islands/3/06 and A/Brisbane/59107. Influenza A(H3N2) viruses (n = 49) were antigenic variants of the reference strains A/Wisconsin/67/05 and A/Brisbane/10/08. One hundred and fifty seven Influenza B strains were drift variants of the reference strains B/Florida/4/06 and B/Shanghai/361/02 of lineage B/Yamagata/16/88 and one strain, a variant of Malaysia/2506/04 related to lineage B/victoria/2/87. The isolates interacted actively with human 0(I) blood group erythrocytes and much more weakly with chicken ones. All study influenza A(H1N1) viruses (n = 74) preserved their sensitivity to rimantadine while 24 (77%) of the 31 study influenza A(H3N2) virus strains were resistant. A study of the time course of changes in the generation of antibodies in the donor sera obtained in Moscow and the Moscow Region in different periods of the epidemic process revealed an increase in antibodies to the reference influenza A and B virus strains circulating in this period.

  8. Phylogenetic analysis of influenza A viruses (H3N2 circulating in Zhytomyr region during 2013–2014 epidemic season

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    Boyalska O. G.

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Aim. To perform phylogenetic analysis of the hemagglutinin (HA and neuraminidase (NA genes of influenza A(H3N2 viruses circulating in the Zhytomyr region during 2013–2014 epidemic season. To make comparison of the HA and NA genes sequences of the Zhytomyr region isolates with the HA and NA genes sequences of influenza viruses circulating in the world. Methods. Laboratory diagnosis was conducted by real-time polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR. In this study the sequencing and phylogenetic analysis were carried out. Results. For the first time the genes of influenza A(H3N2 viruses isolated in the Zhytomyr region during 2013–2014 epidemic season, coding hemagglutinin and neuraminidase were compared with their orthologs. According to the results of this comparison the phylogenetic tree was constructed. Additionally, the amino acid substitutions of the influenza viruses circulating in Ukraine and worldwide were analyzed. Conclusions. The nucleotide sequences of the influenza A(H3N2 viruses genes HA and NA isolated in the Zhytomyr region were identified. Based on the nucleotide sequences of HA and NA we constructed the influenza virus phylogenetic tree demonstrating that the virus isolated in the Zhytomyr region was closely related to the Ukrainian isolate from Kharkov and in the world to the isolates from Germany, Romania, Italy.

  9. No serological evidence that harbour porpoises are additional hosts of influenza B viruses

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    R. Bodewes (Rogier); M.W.G. van de Bildt (Marco); C.E. van Elk; P.E. Bunskoek (Paulien); D.A.M.C. van de Vijver (David); S.L. Smits (Saskia); A.D.M.E. Osterhaus (Albert); T. Kuiken (Thijs)

    2014-01-01

    textabstractInfluenza A and B viruses circulate among humans causing epidemics almost annually. While various hosts for influenza A viruses exist, influenza B viruses have been detected only in humans and seals. However, recurrent infections of seals in Dutch coastal waters with influenza B viruses

  10. Lessons from the Largest Epidemic of Avian Influenza Viruses in Taiwan, 2015.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Ching-Fen; King, Chwan-Chuen; Wan, Cho-Hua; Chang, Yun-Cheng; Chan, Ta-Chien; David Lee, Chang-Chun; Chou, Po-Hao Borris; Li, Zheng-Rong Tiger; Li, Yao-Tsun; Tseng, Tzu-Jung; Lee, Pei-Fen; Chang, Chuan-Hsiung

    2016-05-01

    The largest epidemic of avian influenza (AI) in history attacked poultry and wild birds throughout Taiwan starting January 6, 2015. This study analyzed surveillance results, epidemiologic characteristics, and viral sequences by using government-released information, with the intention to provide recommendations to minimize future pandemic influenza. The H5 clade 2.3.4.4 highly pathogenic AI viruses (HPAIVs) had not been detected in Taiwan before 2015. During this epidemic, four types of etiologic agents were identified: the three novel subtypes H5N2, H5N8, and H5N3 clade 2.3.4.4 HPAIVs and one endemic chicken H5N2 subtype (Mexican-like lineage) of low pathogenic AI viruses. Cocirculation of mixed subtypes also occurred, with H5N2 clade 2.3.4.4 HPAIVs accompanied by the H5N8 and H5N3 subtypes or old H5N2 viruses in the same farm. More than 90% of domestic geese died from this AI epidemic; geese were affected the most at the early outbreaks. The epidemic peaked in mid-January for all three novel H5 subtypes. Spatial epidemiology found that most affected areas were located in southwestern coastal areas. In terrestrial poultry (mostly chickens), different geographic distributions of AI virus subtypes were detected, with hot spots of H5N2 clade 2.3.4.4 vs. past-endemic old H5N2 viruses in Changhwa (P = 0.03) and Yunlin (P = 0.007) counties, respectively, of central Taiwan. Phylogenetic and sequence analyses of all the early 10 Taiwan H5 clade 2.3.4.4 isolates covering the three subtypes showed that they were very different from the HA of the past local H5 viruses from domestic ducks (75%-80%) and chickens (70%-75%). However, they had the highest sequence identity percentages (99.53%-100%), with the HA of A/crane/Kagoshima/KU13/2014(H5N8) isolated on December 7, 2014, in Japan being higher than those of recent American and Korean H5 HPAIVs [A/Northern pintail/Washington/40964/2014 (H5N2) and A/gyrfalcon/Washington/41088-6/2014 (H5N8): 99.02%-99.54% and A/Baikal teal

  11. THE ORGANIZATION OF HOSPITAL CARE DURING THE EPIDEMIC OF INFLUENZA AND SARS FOR THE 2016 SEASON IN VELIKY NOVGOROD

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    M. V. Yuhno

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Analyzed organization of preventive measures and  patient  care  in  Velikiy Novgorod in  connection with  the  exceeding of the  epidemic threshold for influenza and  acute respiratory viral  infections in  2016.  The  epidemic rise  of influenza and  other  acute  respiratory viral  infections exceeded epidemiological and economic thresholds among  the cumulative population on the  territory  of the  Novgorod region started from the 3rd week 2016 (18.01.2016–24.01.2016 and continued for 4 weeks (until  mid February.  The peak  of the epidemic was passed on the 4th calendar week  of 2016, when  the weekly prevalence rate was 135,7 per 10 thousand population (8447,  the  epidemic  threshold was  exceeded in 2 times. In terms  of conversion to the  infectious diseases hospital, a multidisciplinary clinic № 2 «Central city clinical hospital» carried  out specialized medical assistance 301 the patient with  acute respiratory diseases and  influenza, 67 of which were confirmed influenza caused by the H1N1 virus, of which  28 patients would,  if hospitalized in serious  and critical condition and  needed to be held-Institute the  intensive care manual.

  12. Reconstruction of epidemic curves for pandemic influenza A (H1N1 2009 at city and sub-city levels

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    Wong Ngai Sze

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract To better describe the epidemiology of influenza at local level, the time course of pandemic influenza A (H1N1 2009 in the city of Hong Kong was reconstructed from notification data after decomposition procedure and time series analysis. GIS (geographic information system methodology was incorporated for assessing spatial variation. Between May and September 2009, a total of 24415 cases were successfully geocoded, out of 25473 (95.8% reports in the original dataset. The reconstructed epidemic curve was characterized by a small initial peak, a nadir followed by rapid rise to the ultimate plateau. The full course of the epidemic had lasted for about 6 months. Despite the small geographic area of only 1000 Km2, distinctive spatial variation was observed in the configuration of the curves across 6 geographic regions. With the relatively uniform physical and climatic environment within Hong Kong, the temporo-spatial variability of influenza spread could only be explained by the heterogeneous population structure and mobility patterns. Our study illustrated how an epidemic curve could be reconstructed using regularly collected surveillance data, which would be useful in informing intervention at local levels.

  13. Reconstructing the 2003/2004 H3N2 influenza epidemic in Switzerland with a spatially explicit, individual-based model

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-01

    Background Simulation models of influenza spread play an important role for pandemic preparedness. However, as the world has not faced a severe pandemic for decades, except the rather mild H1N1 one in 2009, pandemic influenza models are inherently hypothetical and validation is, thus, difficult. We aim at reconstructing a recent seasonal influenza epidemic that occurred in Switzerland and deem this to be a promising validation strategy for models of influenza spread. Methods We present a spatially explicit, individual-based simulation model of influenza spread. The simulation model bases upon (i) simulated human travel data, (ii) data on human contact patterns and (iii) empirical knowledge on the epidemiology of influenza. For model validation we compare the simulation outcomes with empirical knowledge regarding (i) the shape of the epidemic curve, overall infection rate and reproduction number, (ii) age-dependent infection rates and time of infection, (iii) spatial patterns. Results The simulation model is capable of reproducing the shape of the 2003/2004 H3N2 epidemic curve of Switzerland and generates an overall infection rate (14.9 percent) and reproduction numbers (between 1.2 and 1.3), which are realistic for seasonal influenza epidemics. Age and spatial patterns observed in empirical data are also reflected by the model: Highest infection rates are in children between 5 and 14 and the disease spreads along the main transport axes from west to east. Conclusions We show that finding evidence for the validity of simulation models of influenza spread by challenging them with seasonal influenza outbreak data is possible and promising. Simulation models for pandemic spread gain more credibility if they are able to reproduce seasonal influenza outbreaks. For more robust modelling of seasonal influenza, serological data complementing sentinel information would be beneficial. PMID:21554680

  14. Demands and Claims of Cuenca Physicians during the Influenza Epidemic in Spain, 1918-1919

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    Alberto González García

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available During the 1918-1919 influenza epidemic, Spanish physicians were in a professional renewal based on the belief that their working conditions had significantly diminished. The aim of this paper is to analyze the demands of Cuenca physicians in order to assess if their claims were similar to those which were taking place in the capital of the country. For this purpose, news appeared in La Información Médica journal, the bulletin of the Medical College of Cuenca (Spain, were selected. The methodology used is the bulletin’s discursive content analysis on the premise that the study of the context was relevant. Cuenca medical elite was not influenced by the Madrid medical interests despite the centralized state structure and geographical proximity. The demands in Cuenca depended on the social, economic and health situation in the province, and were conditioned by the cacique’s influence. A strong social criticism of conventional medicine was taking place at that moment.

  15. Strategies for antiviral stockpiling for future influenza pandemics: a global epidemic-economic perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carrasco, Luis R; Lee, Vernon J; Chen, Mark I; Matchar, David B; Thompson, James P; Cook, Alex R

    2011-09-07

    Influenza pandemics present a global threat owing to their potential mortality and substantial economic impacts. Stockpiling antiviral drugs to manage a pandemic is an effective strategy to offset their negative impacts; however, little is known about the long-term optimal size of the stockpile under uncertainty and the characteristics of different countries. Using an epidemic-economic model we studied the effect on total mortality and costs of antiviral stockpile sizes for Brazil, China, Guatemala, India, Indonesia, New Zealand, Singapore, the UK, the USA and Zimbabwe. In the model, antivirals stockpiling considerably reduced mortality. There was greater potential avoidance of expected costs in the higher resourced countries (e.g. from $55 billion to $27 billion over a 30 year time horizon for the USA) and large avoidance of fatalities in those less resourced (e.g. from 11.4 to 2.3 million in Indonesia). Under perfect allocation, higher resourced countries should aim to store antiviral stockpiles able to cover at least 15 per cent of their population, rising to 25 per cent with 30 per cent misallocation, to minimize fatalities and economic costs. Stockpiling is estimated not to be cost-effective for two-thirds of the world's population under current antivirals pricing. Lower prices and international cooperation are necessary to make the life-saving potential of antivirals cost-effective in resource-limited countries.

  16. [Global public health: international health is tested to its limits by the human influenza A epidemic].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franco-Giraldo, Alvaro; Alvarez-Dardet, Carlos

    2009-06-01

    This article comes from the intense international pressure that follows a near-catastrophy, such as the human influenza A H1N1 epidemic, and the limited resources for confronting such events. The analysis covers prevailing 20th century trends in the international public health arena and the change-induced challenges brought on by globalization, the transition set in motion by what has been deemed the "new" international public health and an ever-increasing focus on global health, in the context of an international scenario of shifting risks and opportunities and a growing number of multinational players. Global public health is defined as a public right, based on a new appreciation of the public, a new paradigm centered on human rights, and altruistic philosophy, politics, and ethics that undergird the changes in international public health on at least three fronts: redefining its theoretical foundation, improving world health, and renewing the international public health system, all of which is the byproduct of a new form of governance. A new world health system, directed by new global public institutions, would aim to make public health a global public right and face a variety of staggering challenges, such as working on public policy management on a global scale, renewing and democratizing the current global governing structure, and conquering the limits and weaknesses witnessed by international health.

  17. Farm Models and Eco-Health of Poultry Production Clusters (PPCs following Avian Influenza Epidemics in Thailand

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    Worapol Aengwanich

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Thailand is located in Southeast Asia and is a country that was affected by highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI epidemics during 2003–2004. Nevertheless, the Thai government’s issuance policy of strict control and prevention of the disease has resulted in efficient disease control of avian influenza (AI. Poultry farmers have been both positively and negatively affected by this policy. There are three poultry cluster models worthy of attention in Thailand: (1 egg chicken poultry clusters over ponds; (2 egg chicken poultry clusters in coops raised from the ground and managed by a cooperative; and (3 poultry clusters in closed coops under contract with the private sector. Following the AI epidemics, additional poultry husbandry and biosecurity systems were developed, thereby generating income and improving the quality of life for poultry farmers. Nevertheless, raising large clusters of poultry in the same area results in disadvantages, particularly problems with both air and water pollution, depending upon the environments of each poultry model. Furthermore, the government’s policy for controlling AI during epidemics has had a negative effect on the relationship between officials and farmers, due to poultry destruction measures.

  18. FluDetWeb: an interactive web-based system for the early detection of the onset of influenza epidemics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conesa, David; López-Quílez, Antonio; Martínez-Beneito, Miguel Angel; Miralles, María Teresa; Verdejo, Francisco

    2009-07-29

    The early identification of influenza outbreaks has became a priority in public health practice. A large variety of statistical algorithms for the automated monitoring of influenza surveillance have been proposed, but most of them require not only a lot of computational effort but also operation of sometimes not-so-friendly software. In this paper, we introduce FluDetWeb, an implementation of a prospective influenza surveillance methodology based on a client-server architecture with a thin (web-based) client application design. Users can introduce and edit their own data consisting of a series of weekly influenza incidence rates. The system returns the probability of being in an epidemic phase (via e-mail if desired). When the probability is greater than 0.5, it also returns the probability of an increase in the incidence rate during the following week. The system also provides two complementary graphs. This system has been implemented using statistical free-software (R and WinBUGS), a web server environment for Java code (Tomcat) and a software module created by us (Rdp) responsible for managing internal tasks; the software package MySQL has been used to construct the database management system. The implementation is available on-line from: http://www.geeitema.org/meviepi/fludetweb/. The ease of use of FluDetWeb and its on-line availability can make it a valuable tool for public health practitioners who want to obtain information about the probability that their system is in an epidemic phase. Moreover, the architecture described can also be useful for developers of systems based on computationally intensive methods.

  19. FluDetWeb: an interactive web-based system for the early detection of the onset of influenza epidemics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miralles María

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The early identification of influenza outbreaks has became a priority in public health practice. A large variety of statistical algorithms for the automated monitoring of influenza surveillance have been proposed, but most of them require not only a lot of computational effort but also operation of sometimes not-so-friendly software. Results In this paper, we introduce FluDetWeb, an implementation of a prospective influenza surveillance methodology based on a client-server architecture with a thin (web-based client application design. Users can introduce and edit their own data consisting of a series of weekly influenza incidence rates. The system returns the probability of being in an epidemic phase (via e-mail if desired. When the probability is greater than 0.5, it also returns the probability of an increase in the incidence rate during the following week. The system also provides two complementary graphs. This system has been implemented using statistical free-software (ℝ and WinBUGS, a web server environment for Java code (Tomcat and a software module created by us (Rdp responsible for managing internal tasks; the software package MySQL has been used to construct the database management system. The implementation is available on-line from: http://www.geeitema.org/meviepi/fludetweb/. Conclusion The ease of use of FluDetWeb and its on-line availability can make it a valuable tool for public health practitioners who want to obtain information about the probability that their system is in an epidemic phase. Moreover, the architecture described can also be useful for developers of systems based on computationally intensive methods.

  20. Mathematical modeling of Avian Influenza epidemic with bird vaccination in constant population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kharis, M.; Amidi

    2018-03-01

    The development of the industrial world and human life is increasingly modern and less attention to environmental sustainability causes the virus causes the epidemic has a high tendency to mutate so that the virus that initially only attack animals, is also found to have the ability to attack humans. The epidemics that lasted some time were bird flu epidemics and swine flu epidemics. The flu epidemic led to several deaths and many people admitted to the hospital. Strain (derivatives) of H5N1 virus was identified as the cause of the bird flu epidemic while the H1N1 strain of the virus was identified as the cause of the swine flu epidemic. The symptoms are similar to seasonal flu caused by H3N2 strain of the virus. Outbreaks of bird flu and swine flu initially only attacked animals, but over time some people were found to be infected with the virus.

  1. Contact structures in the poultry industry in Great Britain: Exploring transmission routes for a potential avian influenza virus epidemic

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    Hyder Kieran

    2008-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The commercial poultry industry in United Kingdom (UK is worth an estimated £3.4 billion at retail value, producing over 174 million birds for consumption per year. An epidemic of any poultry disease with high mortality or which is zoonotic, such as avian influenza virus (AIV, would result in the culling of significant numbers of birds, as seen in the Netherlands in 2003 and Italy in 2000. Such an epidemic would cost the UK government millions of pounds in compensation costs, with further economic losses through reduction of international and UK consumption of British poultry. In order to better inform policy advisers and makers on the potential for a large epidemic in GB, we investigate the role that interactions amongst premises within the British commercial poultry industry could play in promoting an AIV epidemic, given an introduction of the virus in a specific part of poultry industry in Great Britain (GB. Results Poultry premises using multiple slaughterhouses lead to a large number of premises being potentially connected, with the resultant potential for large and sometimes widespread epidemics. Catching companies can also potentially link a large proportion of the poultry population. Critical to this is the maximum distance traveled by catching companies between premises and whether or not between-species transmission could occur within individual premises. Premises closely linked by proximity may result in connections being formed between different species and or sectors within the industry. Conclusion Even quite well-contained epidemics have the potential for geographically widespread dissemination, potentially resulting in severe logistical problems for epidemic control, and with economic impact on a large part of the country. Premises sending birds to multiple slaughterhouses or housing multiple species may act as a bridge between otherwise separate sectors of the industry, resulting in the potential for large

  2. Prognostic factors for influenza-associated hospitalization and death during an epidemic

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hak, E; Verheij, T J; van Essen, G A; Lafeber, A B; Grobbee, D E; Hoes, A W

    To predict which patients with current high-risk disease in the community may benefit most from additional preventive or therapeutic measures for influenza, we determined prognostic factors for influenza-associated hospitalization and death in a general practice-based case-control study among this

  3. Epidemiology, Evolution, and Pathogenesis of H7N9 Influenza Viruses in Five Epidemic Waves since 2013 in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Su, Shuo; Gu, Min; Liu, Di; Cui, Jie; Gao, George F; Zhou, Jiyong; Liu, Xiufan

    2017-09-01

    H7N9 influenza viruses were first isolated in 2013 and continue to cause human infections. H7N9 infections represent an ongoing public health threat that has resulted in 1344 cases with 511 deaths as of April 9, 2017. This highlights the continued threat posed by the current poultry trade and live poultry market system in China. Until now, there have been five H7N9 influenza epidemic waves in China; however, the steep increase in the number of humans infected with H7N9 viruses observed in the fifth wave, beginning in October 2016, the spread into western provinces, and the emergence of highly pathogenic (HP) H7N9 influenza outbreaks in chickens and infection in humans have caused domestic and international concern. In this review, we summarize and compare the different waves of H7N9 regarding their epidemiology, pathogenesis, evolution, and characteristic features, and speculate on factors behind the recent increase in the number of human cases and sudden outbreaks in chickens. The continuous evolution of the virus poses a long-term threat to public health and the poultry industry, and thus it is imperative to strengthen prevention and control strategies. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  4. High burden of non-influenza viruses in influenza-like illness in the early weeks of H1N1v epidemic in France.

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    Nathalie Schnepf

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Influenza-like illness (ILI may be caused by a variety of pathogens. Clinical observations are of little help to recognise myxovirus infection and implement appropriate prevention measures. The limited use of molecular tools underestimates the role of other common pathogens. OBJECTIVES: During the early weeks of the 2009-2010 flu pandemic, a clinical and virological survey was conducted in adult and paediatric patients with ILI referred to two French University hospitals in Paris and Tours. Aims were to investigate the different pathogens involved in ILI and describe the associated symptoms. METHODS: H1N1v pandemic influenza diagnosis was performed with real time RT-PCR assay. Other viral aetiologies were investigated by the molecular multiplex assay RespiFinder19®. Clinical data were collected prospectively by physicians using a standard questionnaire. RESULTS: From week 35 to 44, endonasal swabs were collected in 413 patients. Overall, 68 samples (16.5% were positive for H1N1v. In 13 of them, other respiratory pathogens were also detected. Among H1N1v negative samples, 213 (61.9% were positive for various respiratory agents, 190 in single infections and 23 in mixed infections. The most prevalent viruses in H1N1v negative single infections were rhinovirus (62.6%, followed by parainfluenza viruses (24.2% and adenovirus (5.3%. 70.6% of H1N1v cases were identified in patients under 40 years and none after 65 years. There was no difference between clinical symptoms observed in patients infected with H1N1v or with other pathogens. CONCLUSION: Our results highlight the high frequency of non-influenza viruses involved in ILI during the pre-epidemic period of a flu alert and the lack of specific clinical signs associated with influenza infections. Rapid diagnostic screening of a large panel of respiratory pathogens may be critical to define and survey the epidemic situation and to provide critical information for patient management.

  5. Estimating the between-farm transmission rates for highly pathogenic avian influenza subtype H5N1 epidemics in Bangladesh between 2007 and 2013

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ssematimba, A.; Okike, I.; Ahmed, G.M.; Yamage, M.; Boender, G.J.; Hagenaars, T.J.; Bett, B.

    2018-01-01

    Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) is classified by the World Organization for Animal Health as one of the notifiable diseases. Its occurrence is associated with severe socio-economic impacts and is also zoonotic. Bangladesh HPAI epidemic data for the period between 2007 and 2013 were obtained

  6. Chapter 1. Introduction. Recommendations and standard operating procedures for intensive care unit and hospital preparations for an influenza epidemic or mass disaster

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sprung, Charles L.; Cohen, Robert; Adini, Bruria; Christian, Michael D.; Camargo, Ruben; Ceraso, Daniel; Azoulay, Elie; Duguet, Alexandre; Guery, Benoit; Reinhart, Konrad; Barlavie, Yaron; Benin-Goren, Odeda; Klein, Motti; Leoniv, Yuval; Margalit, Gila; Rubinovitch, Bina; Sonnenblick, Moshe; Steinberg, Avraham; Weissman, Charles; Wolff, Donna; Kesecioglu, Jozef; de Jong, Menno; Moreno, Rui; An, Youzhong; Du, Bin; Joynt, Gavin M.; Colvin, John; Loo, Shi; Richards, Guy; Artigas, Antonio; Pugin, Jerome; Amundson, Dennis; Devereaux, Asha; Beigel, John; Danis, Marion; Farmer, Chris; Hick, John L.; Maki, Dennis; Masur, Henry; Rubinson, Lewis; Sandrock, Christian; Talmor, Daniel; Truong, Robert; Zimmerman, Janice; Brett, Steve; Montgomery, Hugh; Rhodes, Andrew; Sanderson, Frances; Taylor, Bruce; Monrgomery, Hugh

    2010-01-01

    In December 2007, the European Society of Intensive Care Medicine established a Task Force to develop standard operating procedures (SOPs) for operating intensive care units (ICU) during an influenza epidemic or mass disaster. To provide direction for health care professionals in the preparation and

  7. The highly pathogenic avian influenza A (H7N7) virus epidemic in the Netherlands in 2003 - lessons learned from the first five outbreaks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Elbers, A.R.W.; Fabri, T.; Vries, T.S.; Wit, de J.J.; Pijpers, A.; Koch, G.

    2004-01-01

    Clinical signs and gross lesions observed in poultry submitted for postmortem examination (PME) from the first five infected poultry flocks preceding the detection of the primary outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) of subtype H7N7 during the 2003 epidemic in the Netherlands are

  8. Multiple reassorted viruses as cause of highly pathogenic avian influenza A(H5N8) virus epidemic, the Netherlands, 2016

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beerens, Nancy; Heutink, Rene; Bergervoet, Saskia A.; Harders, Frank; Bossers, Alex; Koch, Guus

    2017-01-01

    In 2016, an epidemic of highly pathogenic avian influenza A virus subtype H5N8 in the Netherlands caused mass deaths among wild birds, and several commercial poultry farms and captive bird holdings were affected. We performed complete genome sequencing to study the relationship between the wild bird

  9. Clinicopathologic Characteristics of Influenza А(H1n1pdm during 2015–2016 Epidemic Period in Elderly Persons

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O.N. Domashenko

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The objective of the study is to investigate clinical progression of influenza A(H1N1, influenzal pneumonia, pathomorphological pulmonary changes in the lungs in elderly persons in 2015–2016. Materials and methods. During 2015–2016 epidemic period 36 patients suffering from influenza А(H1N1 aged of 60–84 years old (24 male and 12 female patients were attended to the Donetsk Central Municipal Clinical Hospital № 1. Influenza with pneumonia was diagnosed in 24 patients (66.7 %. In 33.3 % the diagnosis of influenza А(H1N1 was confirmed by viral serology testing (hemagglutination-inhibition test, in 63.9 % — by the polymerase chain reaction method, including 87.5 % of deceased patients. Research findings. During 5 years prior to the disease there was no history of influenza vaccination in all patients. On the 5–9th sick day 66.7 % of the patients were hospitalized, 1 female patient (2.8 % was admitted to the department in 2 weeks after the disease onset. Apparent intoxication syndrome was observed from the first day of the disease in 41.7 % of patients with uncomplicated influenza. The duration of fever was 8.7 ± 2.6 days. All elderly patients with uncomplicated influenza recovered. Influenza complicated by pneumonia was diagnosed in 24 patients (66.7 %. In 36.1 % of patients pneumonia was total or subtotal, complicated by respiratory failure of II–III degree of severity. Patients suffering from influenza and influenzal pneumonia did not receive antiviral treatment with oseltamyvirum (Tamiflu due to the lack of this medicinal product in the pharmacy network under the conditions of the local armed conflict. Antibacterial therapy included intravenous meropenum, protected 3rd generation cephalosporins, respiratory fluoroquinolones, macrolides in usual dosages. Oxygen therapy was an indispensable condition for the complex treatment of patients with influenzal pneumonia via a facemask, airtight reservoir bag mask, airtight

  10. Influenza surveillance in Europe. Comparing intensity levels calculated using the Moving Epidemic Method.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Vega, Tomás

    2015-05-30

    Although influenza-like illnesses (ILI) and acute respiratory illnesses (ARI) surveillance are well established in Europe, the comparability of intensity among countries and seasons remains an unresolved challenge.

  11. Lessons from the epidemiological surveillance program, during the influenza A (H1N1 virus epidemic, in a reference university hospital of Southeastern Brazil

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    Maria Luiza Moretti

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: The case definition of influenza-like illness (ILI is a powerful epidemiological tool during influenza epidemics. METHODS: A prospective cohort study was conducted to evaluate the impact of two definitions used as epidemiological tools, in adults and children, during the influenza A H1N1 epidemic. Patients were included if they had upper respiratory samples tested for influenza by real-time reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction during two periods, using the ILI definition (coughing + temperature > 38ºC in period 1, and the definition of severe acute respiratory infection (ARS (coughing + temperature > 38ºC and dyspnoea in period 2. RESULTS: The study included 366 adults and 147 children, covering 243 cases of ILI and 270 cases of ARS. Laboratory confirmed cases of influenza were higher in adults (50% than in children (21.6% ( p < 0.0001 and influenza infection was more prevalent in the ILI definition (53% than ARS (24.4% (p < 0.0001. Adults reported more chills and myalgia than children (p = 0.0001. Oseltamivir was administered in 58% and 46% of adults and children with influenza A H1N1, respectively. The influenza A H1N1 case fatality rate was 7% in adults and 8.3% in children. The mean time from onset of illness until antiviral administration was 4 days. CONCLUSIONS: The modification of ILI to ARS definition resulted in less accuracy in influenza diagnosis and did not improve the appropriate time and use of antiviral medication.

  12. Molecular Epidemiology of a novel re-assorted epidemic strain of equine influenza virus in Pakistan in 2015-16.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khan, Amjad; Mushtaq, Muhammad Hassan; Ahmad, Mansur Ud Din; Nazir, Jawad; Farooqi, Shahid Hussain; Khan, Asghar

    2017-08-15

    A widespread epidemic of equine influenza (EI) occurred in nonvaccinated equine population across multiple districts in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province of Pakistan during 2015-2016. An epidemiological surveillance study was conducted from Oct 2015 to April 2016 to investigate the outbreak. EI virus strains were isolated in embryonated eggs from suspected equines swab samples and were subjected to genome sequencing using M13 tagged segment specific primers. Phylogenetic analyses of the nucleotide sequences were concluded using Geneious. Haemagglutinin (HA), Neuraminidase (NA), Matrix (M) and nucleoprotein (NP) genes nucleotide and amino acid sequences of the isolated viruses were aligned with those of OIE recommended, FC-1, FC-2, and contemporary isolates of influenza A viruses from other species. HA and NA genes amino acid sequences were very similar to Tennessee/14 and Malaysia/15 of FC-1 and clustered with the contemporary isolates recently reported in the USA. Phylogenetic analysis showed that these viruses were mostly identical (with 99.6% and 97.4% nucleotide homology) to, and were reassortants containing chicken/Pakistan/14 (H7N3) and Canine/Beijing/10 (H3N2) like M and NP genes. Genetic analysis indicated that A/equine/Pakistan/16 viruses were most probably the result of several re-assortments between the co-circulating avian and equine viruses, and were genetically unlike the other equine viruses due to the presence of H7N3 or H3N2 like M and NP genes. Epidemiological data analysis indicated the potential chance of mixed, and management such as mixed farming system by keeping equine, canine and backyard poultry together in confined premises as the greater risk factors responsible for the re-assortments. Other factors might have contributed to the spread of the epidemic, including low awareness level, poor control of equine movements, and absence of border control disease strategies. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  13. [Swine influenza virus: evolution mechanism and epidemic characterization--a review].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qi, Xian; Lu, Chengping

    2009-09-01

    Pigs may play an important role in the evolution and ecology of influenza A virus. The tracheal epithelium of pigs contain both SA alpha 2,6 Gal and SA alpha 2,3 Gal receptors and can be infected with swine, human and avian viruses, therefore, pigs have been considered as an intermediate host for the adaptation of avian influenza viruses to humans or as mixing vessels for the generation of genetically reassortant viruses. Evolution patterns among swine influenza viruses including evolution of host adaptation, antigenic drift and genetic reassortment, and the latter is the main one. Unlike human influenza viruses, swine viruses have different epizootiological patterns in different areas of world, which is enzootic and geographic dependence. Currently, three predominant subtypes of influenza virus are prevalent in pig populations worldwide: H1N1, H3N2, and H1N2, and these include classical swine H1N1, avian-like H1N1, human-like H3N2, reassortant H3N2 and various genotype H1N2 viruses. In Europe, North America and China, influenza A viruses circulating in pigs are distinct in the genetic characteristics and genetic sources. Since 1979, three subtypes, avian-like H1N1, reassortant H1N2 and H3N2 viruses, have been co-circulating in European swine. Before 1998, classical H1N1 viruses were the exclusive cause of swine influenza in North America. However, after that, three triple-reassortant H1N2, H3N2 and H1N1 viruses with genes of human, swine and avian virus began to emerge in pigs. Genetically, the pandemic viruses emerging in human, so called influenza A (H1N1) viruses, contain genes from both Europe and North American SIV lineages. SIV is not the same as Europe and the United States in the prevalence and genetic background in China, mainly classical swine H1N1 and human-like H3N2 type virus. However, in recent years, SIV from Europe and North America have been introduced into Chinese pig herds, so more attention should be given on the evolutionary of SIV in China

  14. Novel framework for assessing epidemiologic effects of influenza epidemics and pandemics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reed, Carrie; Biggerstaff, Matthew; Finelli, Lyn; Koonin, Lisa M; Beauvais, Denise; Uzicanin, Amra; Plummer, Andrew; Bresee, Joe; Redd, Stephen C; Jernigan, Daniel B

    2013-01-01

    The effects of influenza on a population are attributable to the clinical severity of illness and the number of persons infected, which can vary greatly between seasons or pandemics. To create a systematic framework for assessing the public health effects of an emerging pandemic, we reviewed data from past influenza seasons and pandemics to characterize severity and transmissibility (based on ranges of these measures in the United States) and outlined a formal assessment of the potential effects of a novel virus. The assessment was divided into 2 periods. Because early in a pandemic, measurement of severity and transmissibility is uncertain, we used a broad dichotomous scale in the initial assessment to divide the range of historic values. In the refined assessment, as more data became available, we categorized those values more precisely. By organizing and prioritizing data collection, this approach may inform an evidence-based assessment of pandemic effects and guide decision making.

  15. Risk-based input-output analysis of influenza epidemic consequences on interdependent workforce sectors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santos, Joost R; May, Larissa; Haimar, Amine El

    2013-09-01

    Outbreaks of contagious diseases underscore the ever-looming threat of new epidemics. Compared to other disasters that inflict physical damage to infrastructure systems, epidemics can have more devastating and prolonged impacts on the population. This article investigates the interdependent economic and productivity risks resulting from epidemic-induced workforce absenteeism. In particular, we develop a dynamic input-output model capable of generating sector-disaggregated economic losses based on different magnitudes of workforce disruptions. An ex post analysis of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic in the national capital region (NCR) reveals the distribution of consequences across different economic sectors. Consequences are categorized into two metrics: (i) economic loss, which measures the magnitude of monetary losses incurred in each sector, and (ii) inoperability, which measures the normalized monetary losses incurred in each sector relative to the total economic output of that sector. For a simulated mild pandemic scenario in NCR, two distinct rankings are generated using the economic loss and inoperability metrics. Results indicate that the majority of the critical sectors ranked according to the economic loss metric comprise of sectors that contribute the most to the NCR's gross domestic product (e.g., federal government enterprises). In contrast, the majority of the critical sectors generated by the inoperability metric include sectors that are involved with epidemic management (e.g., hospitals). Hence, prioritizing sectors for recovery necessitates consideration of the balance between economic loss, inoperability, and other objectives. Although applied specifically to the NCR, the proposed methodology can be customized for other regions. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

  16. Recurrent epidemic cycles driven by intervention in a population of two susceptibility types

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Juanico, Drandreb Earl O

    2014-01-01

    Epidemics have been known to persist in the form of recurrence cycles. Despite intervention efforts through vaccination and targeted social distancing, infectious diseases like influenza continue to appear intermittently over time. I have undertaken an analysis of a stochastic epidemic model to explore the hypothesis that intervention efforts actually drive epidemic cycles. Time series from simulations of the model reveal oscillations exhibiting a similar temporal signature as influenza epidemics. The power-spectral density indicates a resonant frequency, which approximately corresponds to the apparent annual seasonality of influenza in temperate zones. Asymptotic solution to the backward Kolmogorov equation of the dynamics corresponds to an exponentially-decaying mean-exit time as a function of the intervention rate. Intervention must be implemented at a sufficiently high rate to extinguish the infection. The results demonstrate that intervention efforts can induce epidemic cycles, and that the temporal signature of cycles can provide early warning of imminent outbreaks

  17. Flexible Modeling of Epidemics with an Empirical Bayes Framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brooks, Logan C.; Farrow, David C.; Hyun, Sangwon; Tibshirani, Ryan J.; Rosenfeld, Roni

    2015-01-01

    Seasonal influenza epidemics cause consistent, considerable, widespread loss annually in terms of economic burden, morbidity, and mortality. With access to accurate and reliable forecasts of a current or upcoming influenza epidemic’s behavior, policy makers can design and implement more effective countermeasures. This past year, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention hosted the “Predict the Influenza Season Challenge”, with the task of predicting key epidemiological measures for the 2013–2014 U.S. influenza season with the help of digital surveillance data. We developed a framework for in-season forecasts of epidemics using a semiparametric Empirical Bayes framework, and applied it to predict the weekly percentage of outpatient doctors visits for influenza-like illness, and the season onset, duration, peak time, and peak height, with and without using Google Flu Trends data. Previous work on epidemic modeling has focused on developing mechanistic models of disease behavior and applying time series tools to explain historical data. However, tailoring these models to certain types of surveillance data can be challenging, and overly complex models with many parameters can compromise forecasting ability. Our approach instead produces possibilities for the epidemic curve of the season of interest using modified versions of data from previous seasons, allowing for reasonable variations in the timing, pace, and intensity of the seasonal epidemics, as well as noise in observations. Since the framework does not make strict domain-specific assumptions, it can easily be applied to some other diseases with seasonal epidemics. This method produces a complete posterior distribution over epidemic curves, rather than, for example, solely point predictions of forecasting targets. We report prospective influenza-like-illness forecasts made for the 2013–2014 U.S. influenza season, and compare the framework’s cross-validated prediction error on historical data to

  18. Real-time forecasting of an epidemic using a discrete time stochastic model: a case study of pandemic influenza (H1N1-2009

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nishiura Hiroshi

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Real-time forecasting of epidemics, especially those based on a likelihood-based approach, is understudied. This study aimed to develop a simple method that can be used for the real-time epidemic forecasting. Methods A discrete time stochastic model, accounting for demographic stochasticity and conditional measurement, was developed and applied as a case study to the weekly incidence of pandemic influenza (H1N1-2009 in Japan. By imposing a branching process approximation and by assuming the linear growth of cases within each reporting interval, the epidemic curve is predicted using only two parameters. The uncertainty bounds of the forecasts are computed using chains of conditional offspring distributions. Results The quality of the forecasts made before the epidemic peak appears largely to depend on obtaining valid parameter estimates. The forecasts of both weekly incidence and final epidemic size greatly improved at and after the epidemic peak with all the observed data points falling within the uncertainty bounds. Conclusions Real-time forecasting using the discrete time stochastic model with its simple computation of the uncertainty bounds was successful. Because of the simplistic model structure, the proposed model has the potential to additionally account for various types of heterogeneity, time-dependent transmission dynamics and epidemiological details. The impact of such complexities on forecasting should be explored when the data become available as part of the disease surveillance.

  19. Factors influencing psychological distress during a disease epidemic: Data from Australia's first outbreak of equine influenza

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stevens Garry J

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In 2007 Australia experienced its first outbreak of highly infectious equine influenza. Government disease control measures were put in place to control, contain, and eradicate the disease; these measures included movement restrictions and quarantining of properties. This study was conducted to assess the psycho-social impacts of this disease, and this paper reports the prevalence of, and factors influencing, psychological distress during this outbreak. Methods Data were collected using an online survey, with a link directed to the affected population via a number of industry groups. Psychological distress, as determined by the Kessler 10 Psychological Distress Scale, was the main outcome measure. Results In total, 2760 people participated in this study. Extremely high levels of non-specific psychological distress were reported by respondents in this study, with 34% reporting high psychological distress (K10 > 22, compared to levels of around 12% in the Australian general population. Analysis, using backward stepwise binary logistic regression analysis, revealed that those living in high risk infection (red zones (OR = 2.00; 95% CI: 1.57–2.55; p Conclusion Although, methodologically, this study had good internal validity, it has limited generalisability because it was not possible to identify, bound, or sample the target population accurately. However, this study is the first to collect psychological distress data from an affected population during such a disease outbreak and has potential to inform those involved in assessing the potential psychological impacts of human infectious diseases, such as pandemic influenza.

  20. Changing human mobility and the spreading rate of global influenza outbreaks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Slaa, Jan Willem

    2010-01-01

    Influenza, commonly called the flu, is an infectious disease which causes up to 500,000 deaths annually during seasonal epidemics. Influenza viruses circulate in many different types and in many species, such as birds, swines and humans. When a new human

  1. ATTEMPTING TO PREDICT THE FATE OF AN ONGOING EPIDEMIC. LESSONS FROM A(H1N1 INFLUENZA IN USA.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miguel Martín Martínez

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available An attempt is made to estimate the main parameters of the 2009 Influenza type A(H1N1 outburst in USA based on public information provided by Centers for Disease Control (CDC during the early stage of the epidemic. Given the ill-posed nature of the statistical problem, a nonlinear fuction estimation method (Gauss-Newton and Hooke Jeeves was combined with linearization procedures that allowed to set adequate initial guess values for estimation. Based on data until May 13th, 2009, the following values are predicted for the USA outbreak: Tau (time to the peak of incidence 32 days; R0 (number of secondary infections per infected individual 1.7; K (total number of cases 20000(15000-35000. These results are in good agreement with the values reported by the WHO's Rapid Assessment Team for the outburst in Mexico. The method can be applied in any setting where cumulative number of cases are properly recorded.

  2. [Differences in oligomerization of nucleocapsid protein of epidemic human influenza A(H1N1), A(H1N2) and B viruses].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prokudina, E N; Semenova, N P; Chumakov, V M; Burtseva, E I; Slepushkin, A N

    2003-01-01

    A comparative analysis of involving the nucleocapsid protein (NP) into shaping-up of SDS-resistant oligomers was carried out presently in circulating epidemic strains of human influenza, viruses A and B. The study results of viral isolates obtained from clinical samples and recent standard strains revealed that the involvement of NP in the SDS-resistant oligomers, which are different in various subtypes of influenza A viruses. According to this sign, the human viruses A(9H3N2) are close to the avian ones, in which, as proved by us previously, virtually the entire NP transforms itself into the oligomers resistant to SDS. About 10-20% of NP are involved in shaping-up the virus influenza A(H1N1) of SDS-resistant oligomers. No SDS-resistant NP-oligomers were detected in influenza of type B. It is suggested that the prevalence of human viruses A(H3N2) in NP-oligomers are the peculiarities of NP structure and of the presence of the PB1 protein from avian influenza virus.

  3. Reverse Genetics Approaches for the Development of Influenza Vaccines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nogales, Aitor; Martínez-Sobrido, Luis

    2016-01-01

    Influenza viruses cause annual seasonal epidemics and occasional pandemics of human respiratory disease. Influenza virus infections represent a serious public health and economic problem, which are most effectively prevented through vaccination. However, influenza viruses undergo continual antigenic variation, which requires either the annual reformulation of seasonal influenza vaccines or the rapid generation of vaccines against potential pandemic virus strains. The segmented nature of influenza virus allows for the reassortment between two or more viruses within a co-infected cell, and this characteristic has also been harnessed in the laboratory to generate reassortant viruses for their use as either inactivated or live-attenuated influenza vaccines. With the implementation of plasmid-based reverse genetics techniques, it is now possible to engineer recombinant influenza viruses entirely from full-length complementary DNA copies of the viral genome by transfection of susceptible cells. These reverse genetics systems have provided investigators with novel and powerful approaches to answer important questions about the biology of influenza viruses, including the function of viral proteins, their interaction with cellular host factors and the mechanisms of influenza virus transmission and pathogenesis. In addition, reverse genetics techniques have allowed the generation of recombinant influenza viruses, providing a powerful technology to develop both inactivated and live-attenuated influenza vaccines. In this review, we will summarize the current knowledge of state-of-the-art, plasmid-based, influenza reverse genetics approaches and their implementation to provide rapid, convenient, safe and more effective influenza inactivated or live-attenuated vaccines. PMID:28025504

  4. A case-control study of risk factors for equine influenza spread onto horse premises during the 2007 epidemic in Australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Firestone, Simon M; Schemann, Kathrin A; Toribio, Jenny-Ann L M L; Ward, Michael P; Dhand, Navneet K

    2011-06-01

    The 2007 epidemic of equine influenza in Australia provided an opportunity to investigate the effectiveness of on-farm biosecurity measures in preventing the spread of a novel pathogen in a largely naive population. We conducted a case-control study of 200 horse premises from highly affected regions of the state of New South Wales (NSW), to investigate risk factors for the spread of equine influenza onto horse premises, specifically, non-compliance with biosecurity measures recommended to horse owners by the relevant animal health authority, the NSW Department of Primary Industries. The study was restricted to cases occurring during the first seven weeks of the epidemic, a period prior to vaccination and the relaxation of some movement restrictions. Case and control premises were selected from a laboratory testing dataset and interviews were conducted with horse owners and managers on premises between July and November 2009. The proximity of premises to the nearest infected premises was the factor most strongly associated with case status. Case premises were more likely than control premises to be within 5 km and beyond 10 km of an infected premises. Having a footbath in place on the premises before any horses were infected was associated with a nearly four-fold reduction in odds of infection (odds ratio=0.27; 95% confidence interval: 0.09, 0.83). This protective association may have reflected overall premises biosecurity standards related to the fomite transmission of equine influenza. Compliance with certain on-farm biosecurity practices seemingly prevented horses on premises in high risk areas being infected with equine influenza during the 2007 outbreak in Australia. In future outbreaks, in addition to broader disease control measures, on-farm biosecurity practices should be adopted by horse owners and managers to prevent equine influenza spread. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  5. Avian influenza epidemic in Italy due to serovar H7N1.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zanella, A; Dall'Ara, P; Martino, P A

    2001-01-01

    Beginning at the end of March 1999, a syndrome characterized by severe depression, anorexia, fever, and respiratory and enteric symptoms appeared in flocks of turkeys and, to a lesser extent, of chickens in the densely populated poultry-rearing regions of northeast Italy. The disease was characterized by sinusitis, tracheitis, peritonitis, and pancreatitis. The mortality varied between 5% and 90%. The disease was diagnosed as low pathogenic avian influenza, H7N1 serotype. After a summer period of declining cases, the disease reappeared in autumn exclusively in turkeys. Since the middle of December 1999, many farms of chickens, turkeys, and guinea fowl were abruptly affected by a highly pathogenic H7N1 virus, with very severe depression and mortality up to 100% in a few days. By the end of March 2000, nearly 500 farms, representing over 15 million birds, were affected or depopulated. To date, control measures have focused on improved biosecurity measures. Vaccine was not allowed, but its use was debated.

  6. [Estimation of the excess death associated with influenza pandemics and epidemics in Japan after world war II: relation with pandemics and the vaccination system].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ohmi, Kenichi; Marui, Eiji

    2011-10-01

    To estimate the excess death associated with influenza pandemics and epidemics in Japan after World War II, and to reexamine the relationship between the excess death and the vaccination system in Japan. Using the Japanese national vital statistics data for 1952-2009, we specified months with influenza epidemics, monthly mortality rates and the seasonal index for 1952-74 and for 1975-2009. Then we calculated excess deaths of each month from the observed number of deaths and the 95% range of expected deaths. Lastly we calculated age-adjusted excess death rates using the 1985 model population of Japan. The total number of excess deaths for 1952-2009 was 687,279 (95% range, 384,149-970,468), 12,058 (95% range, 6,739-17,026) per year. The total number of excess deaths in 6 pandemic years of 1957-58, 58-59, 1968-69, 69-70, 77-78 and 78-79, was 95,904, while that in 51 'non-pandemic' years was 591,376, 6.17 fold larger than pandemic years. The average number of excess deaths for pandemic years was 23,976, nearly equal to that for 'non-pandemic' years, 23,655. At the beginning of pandemics, 1957-58, 1968-69, 1969-70, the proportion of those aged pandemic' years. In the 1970s and 1980s, when the vaccination program for schoolchildren was mandatory in Japan on the basis of the "Fukumi thesis", age-adjusted average excess mortality rates were relatively low, with an average of 6.17 per hundred thousand. In the 1990s, when group vaccination was discontinued, age-adjusted excess mortality rose up to 9.42, only to drop again to 2.04 when influenza vaccination was made available to the elderly in the 2000s, suggesting that the vaccination of Japanese children prevented excess deaths from influenza pandemics and epidemics. Moreover, in the age group under 65, average excess mortality rates were low in the 1970s and 1980s rather than in the 2000s, which shows that the "Social Defensive" schoolchildren vaccination program in the 1970s and 1980s was more effective than the

  7. Improving risk models for avian influenza: the role of intensive poultry farming and flooded land during the 2004 Thailand epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Boeckel, Thomas P; Thanapongtharm, Weerapong; Robinson, Timothy; Biradar, Chandrashekhar M; Xiao, Xiangming; Gilbert, Marius

    2012-01-01

    Since 1996 when Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza type H5N1 first emerged in southern China, numerous studies sought risk factors and produced risk maps based on environmental and anthropogenic predictors. However little attention has been paid to the link between the level of intensification of poultry production and the risk of outbreak. This study revised H5N1 risk mapping in Central and Western Thailand during the second wave of the 2004 epidemic. Production structure was quantified using a disaggregation methodology based on the number of poultry per holding. Population densities of extensively- and intensively-raised ducks and chickens were derived both at the sub-district and at the village levels. LandSat images were used to derive another previously neglected potential predictor of HPAI H5N1 risk: the proportion of water in the landscape resulting from floods. We used Monte Carlo simulation of Boosted Regression Trees models of predictor variables to characterize the risk of HPAI H5N1. Maps of mean risk and uncertainty were derived both at the sub-district and the village levels. The overall accuracy of Boosted Regression Trees models was comparable to that of logistic regression approaches. The proportion of area flooded made the highest contribution to predicting the risk of outbreak, followed by the densities of intensively-raised ducks, extensively-raised ducks and human population. Our results showed that as little as 15% of flooded land in villages is sufficient to reach the maximum level of risk associated with this variable. The spatial pattern of predicted risk is similar to previous work: areas at risk are mainly located along the flood plain of the Chao Phraya river and to the south-east of Bangkok. Using high-resolution village-level poultry census data, rather than sub-district data, the spatial accuracy of predictions was enhanced to highlight local variations in risk. Such maps provide useful information to guide intervention.

  8. Improving risk models for avian influenza: the role of intensive poultry farming and flooded land during the 2004 Thailand epidemic.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas P Van Boeckel

    Full Text Available Since 1996 when Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza type H5N1 first emerged in southern China, numerous studies sought risk factors and produced risk maps based on environmental and anthropogenic predictors. However little attention has been paid to the link between the level of intensification of poultry production and the risk of outbreak. This study revised H5N1 risk mapping in Central and Western Thailand during the second wave of the 2004 epidemic. Production structure was quantified using a disaggregation methodology based on the number of poultry per holding. Population densities of extensively- and intensively-raised ducks and chickens were derived both at the sub-district and at the village levels. LandSat images were used to derive another previously neglected potential predictor of HPAI H5N1 risk: the proportion of water in the landscape resulting from floods. We used Monte Carlo simulation of Boosted Regression Trees models of predictor variables to characterize the risk of HPAI H5N1. Maps of mean risk and uncertainty were derived both at the sub-district and the village levels. The overall accuracy of Boosted Regression Trees models was comparable to that of logistic regression approaches. The proportion of area flooded made the highest contribution to predicting the risk of outbreak, followed by the densities of intensively-raised ducks, extensively-raised ducks and human population. Our results showed that as little as 15% of flooded land in villages is sufficient to reach the maximum level of risk associated with this variable. The spatial pattern of predicted risk is similar to previous work: areas at risk are mainly located along the flood plain of the Chao Phraya river and to the south-east of Bangkok. Using high-resolution village-level poultry census data, rather than sub-district data, the spatial accuracy of predictions was enhanced to highlight local variations in risk. Such maps provide useful information to guide

  9. Effectiveness of A(H1N1)pdm09 influenza vaccine in adults recommended for annual influenza vaccination.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gefenaite, G.; Tacken, M.; Bos, J.; Stirbu-Wagner, I.; Korevaar, J.C.; Stolk, R.P.; Wolters, B.; Bijl, M.; Postma, M.J.; Wilschut, J.; Nichol, K.L.; Hak, E.

    2013-01-01

    Introduction: Because of variability in published A(H1N1)pdm09 influenza vaccine effectiveness estimates, we conducted a study in the adults belonging to the risk groups to assess the A(H1N1)pdm09 MF59-adjuvanted influenza vaccine effectiveness. Methods: VE against influenza and/or pneumonia was

  10. The global condition of epidemics: Panoramas in A (H1N1) influenza and their consequences for One World One Health programme.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tirado, Francisco; Gómez, Andrés; Rocamora, Verónica

    2015-03-01

    Among the most relevant elements contributing to define the One World One Health programme we find epidemics. The reason is that in recent decades, infectious diseases such as HIV/SIDA, SARS and Influenza have shown that we need new approaches and concepts in order to understand how biological emergencies and health alerts deploy new scales of action. Especially relevant has been the case of A(H1N1) influenza. This reached the status of global threat virtually from its onset, triggering an international response with a diffusion, visibility and rapidity unparalleled in previous health alerts. This article maintains that this global condition cannot be explained solely by the epidemiologic characteristics of the disease, such as mortality rate, severe cases, propagation capacity, etc. Resorting to the approach proposed by the Actor-Network Theory (ANT), this paper suggests that the action of certain socio-technical operators was what built a heterogeneous network of ideas, concepts and materials that turned the A (H1N1) influenza into a global-scale phenomenon with unprecedented speed. Among these operators, the most important ones were: the speaking position, a discourse about threat, the protocols and guidelines that were used and, lastly, the maps that allowed a real-time monitoring of the influenza. The paper ends with the notion of panorama, as defined by Bruno Latour: a suggestion to describe the common denominator of the aforementioned operators, and a means to foresee the development of global scales for certain health alerts. The paper will conclude by proposing that this type of analysis would allow the One World One Health to understand with greater precision the dynamic of epidemics and thus make its principles of action much more specific as well as its definition of what global health should be. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Universal Influenza Vaccines, a Dream to Be Realized Soon

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Han Zhang

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Due to frequent viral antigenic change, current influenza vaccines need to be re-formulated annually to match the circulating strains for battling seasonal influenza epidemics. These vaccines are also ineffective in preventing occasional outbreaks of new influenza pandemic viruses. All these challenges call for the development of universal influenza vaccines capable of conferring broad cross-protection against multiple subtypes of influenza A viruses. Facilitated by the advancement in modern molecular biology, delicate antigen design becomes one of the most effective factors for fulfilling such goals. Conserved epitopes residing in virus surface proteins including influenza matrix protein 2 and the stalk domain of the hemagglutinin draw general interest for improved antigen design. The present review summarizes the recent progress in such endeavors and also covers the encouraging progress in integrated antigen/adjuvant delivery and controlled release technology that facilitate the development of an affordable universal influenza vaccine.

  12. Effects of closing and reopening live poultry markets on the epidemic of human infection with avian influenza A virus

    OpenAIRE

    Lu, Jian; Liu, Wendong; Xia, Rui; Dai, Qigang; Bao, Changjun; Tang, Fenyang; Zhu, yefei; Wang, Qiao

    2015-01-01

    Abstract Live poultry markets (LPMs) are crucial places for human infection of influenza A (H7N9 virus). In Yangtze River Delta, LPMs were closed after the outbreak of human infection with avian influenza A (H7N9) virus, and then reopened when no case was found. Our purpose was to quantify the effect of LPMs? operations in this region on the transmission of influenza A (H7N9) virus. We obtained information about dates of symptom onset and locations for all human influenza A (H7N9) cases repor...

  13. Evaluation of epidemic intelligence systems integrated in the early alerting and reporting project for the detection of A/H5N1 influenza events.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Philippe Barboza

    Full Text Available The objective of Web-based expert epidemic intelligence systems is to detect health threats. The Global Health Security Initiative (GHSI Early Alerting and Reporting (EAR project was launched to assess the feasibility and opportunity for pooling epidemic intelligence data from seven expert systems. EAR participants completed a qualitative survey to document epidemic intelligence strategies and to assess perceptions regarding the systems performance. Timeliness and sensitivity were rated highly illustrating the value of the systems for epidemic intelligence. Weaknesses identified included representativeness, completeness and flexibility. These findings were corroborated by the quantitative analysis performed on signals potentially related to influenza A/H5N1 events occurring in March 2010. For the six systems for which this information was available, the detection rate ranged from 31% to 38%, and increased to 72% when considering the virtual combined system. The effective positive predictive values ranged from 3% to 24% and F1-scores ranged from 6% to 27%. System sensitivity ranged from 38% to 72%. An average difference of 23% was observed between the sensitivities calculated for human cases and epizootics, underlining the difficulties in developing an efficient algorithm for a single pathology. However, the sensitivity increased to 93% when the virtual combined system was considered, clearly illustrating complementarities between individual systems. The average delay between the detection of A/H5N1 events by the systems and their official reporting by WHO or OIE was 10.2 days (95% CI: 6.7-13.8. This work illustrates the diversity in implemented epidemic intelligence activities, differences in system's designs, and the potential added values and opportunities for synergy between systems, between users and between systems and users.

  14. Evaluation of Epidemic Intelligence Systems Integrated in the Early Alerting and Reporting Project for the Detection of A/H5N1 Influenza Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barboza, Philippe; Vaillant, Laetitia; Mawudeku, Abla; Nelson, Noele P.; Hartley, David M.; Madoff, Lawrence C.; Linge, Jens P.; Collier, Nigel; Brownstein, John S.; Yangarber, Roman; Astagneau, Pascal; on behalf of the Early Alerting, Reporting Project of the Global Health Security Initiative

    2013-01-01

    The objective of Web-based expert epidemic intelligence systems is to detect health threats. The Global Health Security Initiative (GHSI) Early Alerting and Reporting (EAR) project was launched to assess the feasibility and opportunity for pooling epidemic intelligence data from seven expert systems. EAR participants completed a qualitative survey to document epidemic intelligence strategies and to assess perceptions regarding the systems performance. Timeliness and sensitivity were rated highly illustrating the value of the systems for epidemic intelligence. Weaknesses identified included representativeness, completeness and flexibility. These findings were corroborated by the quantitative analysis performed on signals potentially related to influenza A/H5N1 events occurring in March 2010. For the six systems for which this information was available, the detection rate ranged from 31% to 38%, and increased to 72% when considering the virtual combined system. The effective positive predictive values ranged from 3% to 24% and F1-scores ranged from 6% to 27%. System sensitivity ranged from 38% to 72%. An average difference of 23% was observed between the sensitivities calculated for human cases and epizootics, underlining the difficulties in developing an efficient algorithm for a single pathology. However, the sensitivity increased to 93% when the virtual combined system was considered, clearly illustrating complementarities between individual systems. The average delay between the detection of A/H5N1 events by the systems and their official reporting by WHO or OIE was 10.2 days (95% CI: 6.7–13.8). This work illustrates the diversity in implemented epidemic intelligence activities, differences in system's designs, and the potential added values and opportunities for synergy between systems, between users and between systems and users. PMID:23472077

  15. Evaluation of epidemic intelligence systems integrated in the early alerting and reporting project for the detection of A/H5N1 influenza events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barboza, Philippe; Vaillant, Laetitia; Mawudeku, Abla; Nelson, Noele P; Hartley, David M; Madoff, Lawrence C; Linge, Jens P; Collier, Nigel; Brownstein, John S; Yangarber, Roman; Astagneau, Pascal

    2013-01-01

    The objective of Web-based expert epidemic intelligence systems is to detect health threats. The Global Health Security Initiative (GHSI) Early Alerting and Reporting (EAR) project was launched to assess the feasibility and opportunity for pooling epidemic intelligence data from seven expert systems. EAR participants completed a qualitative survey to document epidemic intelligence strategies and to assess perceptions regarding the systems performance. Timeliness and sensitivity were rated highly illustrating the value of the systems for epidemic intelligence. Weaknesses identified included representativeness, completeness and flexibility. These findings were corroborated by the quantitative analysis performed on signals potentially related to influenza A/H5N1 events occurring in March 2010. For the six systems for which this information was available, the detection rate ranged from 31% to 38%, and increased to 72% when considering the virtual combined system. The effective positive predictive values ranged from 3% to 24% and F1-scores ranged from 6% to 27%. System sensitivity ranged from 38% to 72%. An average difference of 23% was observed between the sensitivities calculated for human cases and epizootics, underlining the difficulties in developing an efficient algorithm for a single pathology. However, the sensitivity increased to 93% when the virtual combined system was considered, clearly illustrating complementarities between individual systems. The average delay between the detection of A/H5N1 events by the systems and their official reporting by WHO or OIE was 10.2 days (95% CI: 6.7-13.8). This work illustrates the diversity in implemented epidemic intelligence activities, differences in system's designs, and the potential added values and opportunities for synergy between systems, between users and between systems and users.

  16. Influenza interaction with cocirculating pathogens and its impact on surveillance, pathogenesis, and epidemic profile: A key role for mathematical modelling.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lulla Opatowski

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Evidence is mounting that influenza virus interacts with other pathogens colonising or infecting the human respiratory tract. Taking into account interactions with other pathogens may be critical to determining the real influenza burden and the full impact of public health policies targeting influenza. This is particularly true for mathematical modelling studies, which have become critical in public health decision-making. Yet models usually focus on influenza virus acquisition and infection alone, thereby making broad oversimplifications of pathogen ecology. Herein, we report evidence of influenza virus interactions with bacteria and viruses and systematically review the modelling studies that have incorporated interactions. Despite the many studies examining possible associations between influenza and Streptococcus pneumoniae, Staphylococcus aureus, Haemophilus influenzae, Neisseria meningitidis, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV, human rhinoviruses, human parainfluenza viruses, etc., very few mathematical models have integrated other pathogens alongside influenza. The notable exception is the pneumococcus-influenza interaction, for which several recent modelling studies demonstrate the power of dynamic modelling as an approach to test biological hypotheses on interaction mechanisms and estimate the strength of those interactions. We explore how different interference mechanisms may lead to unexpected incidence trends and possible misinterpretation, and we illustrate the impact of interactions on public health surveillance using simple transmission models. We demonstrate that the development of multipathogen models is essential to assessing the true public health burden of influenza and that it is needed to help improve planning and evaluation of control measures. Finally, we identify the public health, surveillance, modelling, and biological challenges and propose avenues of research for the coming years.

  17. Chapter 2. Surge capacity and infrastructure considerations for mass critical care. Recommendations and standard operating procedures for intensive care unit and hospital preparations for an influenza epidemic or mass disaster

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hick, John L.; Christian, Michael D.; Sprung, Charles L.; Camargo, Ruben; Ceraso, Daniel; Azoulay, Elie; Duguet, Alexandre; Guery, Benoit; Reinhart, Konrad; Adini, Bruria; Barlavie, Yaron; Benin-Goren, Odeda; Cohen, Robert; Klein, Motti; Leoniv, Yuval; Margalit, Gila; Rubinovitch, Bina; Sonnenblick, Moshe; Steinberg, Avraham; Weissman, Charles; Wolff, Donna; Kesecioglu, Jozef; de Jong, Menno; Moreno, Rui; An, Youzhong; Du, Bin; Joynt, Gavin M.; Colvin, John; Loo, Shi; Richards, Guy; Artigas, Antonio; Pugin, Jerome; Amundson, Dennis; Devereaux, Asha; Beigel, John; Danis, Marion; Farmer, Chris; Maki, Dennis; Masur, Henry; Rubinson, Lewis; Sandrock, Christian; Talmor, Daniel; Truog, Robert; Zimmerman, Janice; Brett, Steve; Montgomery, Hugh; Rhodes, Andrew; Sanderson, Frances; Taylor, Bruce; Monrgomery, Hugh

    2010-01-01

    To provide recommendations and standard operating procedures for intensive care unit (ICU) and hospital preparations for a mass disaster or influenza epidemic with a specific focus on surge capacity and infrastructure considerations. Based on a literature review and expert opinion, a Delphi process

  18. Transmission of influenza reflects seasonality of wild birds across the annual cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hill, Nichola J.; Ma, Eric J.; Meixell, Brandt W.; Lindberg, Mark S.; Boyce, Walter M.; Runstadler, Jonathan A.

    2016-01-01

    Influenza A Viruses (IAV) in nature must overcome shifting transmission barriers caused by the mobility of their primary host, migratory wild birds, that change throughout the annual cycle. Using a phylogenetic network of viral sequences from North American wild birds (2008–2011) we demonstrate a shift from intraspecific to interspecific transmission that along with reassortment, allows IAV to achieve viral flow across successive seasons from summer to winter. Our study supports amplification of IAV during summer breeding seeded by overwintering virus persisting locally and virus introduced from a wide range of latitudes. As birds migrate from breeding sites to lower latitudes, they become involved in transmission networks with greater connectivity to other bird species, with interspecies transmission of reassortant viruses peaking during the winter. We propose that switching transmission dynamics may be a critical strategy for pathogens that infect mobile hosts inhabiting regions with strong seasonality.

  19. Influenza

    OpenAIRE

    Solórzano-Santos, Fortino; Miranda-Novales, Ma. Guadalupe

    2009-01-01

    La influenza es una infección viral aguda de las vías respiratorias, altamente contagiosa. Es causada por el virus de la influenza A, B y C. Puede afectar a todos los grupos etarios durante epidemias, aunque tiene mayor morbilidad en los extremos de la vida. La enfermedad frecuentemente requiere de atención médica y hospitalización, contribuyendo sustancialmente a pérdidas económicas, exceso en el número de días/cama-hospital y muertes. Considerando la epidemia reciente en México del virus de...

  20. Influenza

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Forleo-Neto Eduardo

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available A influenza (gripe é doença infecciosa aguda de origem viral que acomete o trato respiratório e a cada inverno atinge mais de 100 milhões de pessoas na Europa, Japão e Estados Unidos, causando anualmente a morte de cerca de 20 a 40 mil pessoas somente neste último país. O agente etiológico é o Myxovirus influenzae, ou vírus da gripe. Este subdivide-se nos tipos A, B e C, sendo que apenas os do tipo A e B apresentam relevância clínica em humanos. O vírus influenza apresenta altas taxas de mutação, o que resulta freqüentemente na inserção de novas variantes virais na comunidade, para as quais a população não apresenta imunidade. São poucas as opções disponíveis para o controle da influenza. Dentre essas, a vacinação constitui a forma mais eficaz para o controle da doença e de suas complicações. Em função das mutações que ocorrem naturalmente no vírus influenza, recomenda-se que a vacinação seja realizada anualmente. No Brasil, segundo dados obtidos pelo Projeto VigiGripe - ligado à Universidade Federal de São Paulo -, verifica-se que a influenza apresenta pico de atividade entre os meses de maio e setembro. Assim, a época mais indicada para a vacinação corresponde aos meses de março e abril. Para o tratamento específico da influenza estão disponíveis quatro medicamentos antivirais: os fármacos clássicos amantadina e rimantidina e os antivirais de segunda geração oseltamivir e zanamivir. Os últimos, acrescentam alternativas para o tratamento da influenza e ampliam as opções disponíveis para o seu controle.

  1. Influenza epidemiology and influenza vaccine effectiveness during the 2014–2015 season: annual report from the Global Influenza Hospital Surveillance Network

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    Joan Puig-Barberà

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract The Global Influenza Hospital Surveillance Network (GIHSN has established a prospective, active surveillance, hospital-based epidemiological study to collect epidemiological and virological data for the Northern and Southern Hemispheres over several consecutive seasons. It focuses exclusively on severe cases of influenza requiring hospitalization. A standard protocol is shared between sites allowing comparison and pooling of results. During the 2014–2015 influenza season, the GIHSN included seven coordinating sites from six countries (St. Petersburg and Moscow, Russian Federation; Prague, Czech Republic; Istanbul, Turkey; Beijing, China; Valencia, Spain; and Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Here, we present the detailed epidemiological and influenza vaccine effectiveness findings for the Northern Hemisphere 2014–2015 influenza season.

  2. A universal long-term flu vaccine may not prevent severe epidemics

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    Blower Sally

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Recently, the promise of a new universal long-term flu vaccine has become more tangible than ever before. Such a vaccine would protect against very many seasonal and pandemic flu strains for many years, making annual vaccination unnecessary. However, due to complacency behavior, it remains unclear whether the introduction of such vaccines would maintain high and stable levels of vaccination coverage year after year. Findings To predict the impact of universal long-term flu vaccines on influenza epidemics we developed a mathematical model that linked human cognition and memory with the transmission dynamics of influenza. Our modeling shows that universal vaccines that provide short-term protection are likely to result in small frequent epidemics, whereas universal vaccines that provide long-term protection are likely to result in severe infrequent epidemics. Conclusions Influenza vaccines that provide short-term protection maintain risk awareness regarding influenza in the population and result in stable vaccination coverage. Vaccines that provide long-term protection could lead to substantial drops in vaccination coverage and should therefore include an annual epidemic risk awareness programs in order to minimize the risk of severe epidemics.

  3. Update: Increase in Human Infections with Novel Asian Lineage Avian Influenza A(H7N9) Viruses During the Fifth Epidemic - China, October 1, 2016-August 7, 2017.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kile, James C; Ren, Ruiqi; Liu, Liqi; Greene, Carolyn M; Roguski, Katherine; Iuliano, A Danielle; Jang, Yunho; Jones, Joyce; Thor, Sharmi; Song, Ying; Zhou, Suizan; Trock, Susan C; Dugan, Vivien; Wentworth, David E; Levine, Min Z; Uyeki, Timothy M; Katz, Jacqueline M; Jernigan, Daniel B; Olsen, Sonja J; Fry, Alicia M; Azziz-Baumgartner, Eduardo; Davis, C Todd

    2017-09-08

    Among all influenza viruses assessed using CDC's Influenza Risk Assessment Tool (IRAT), the Asian lineage avian influenza A(H7N9) virus (Asian H7N9), first reported in China in March 2013,* is ranked as the influenza virus with the highest potential pandemic risk (1). During October 1, 2016-August 7, 2017, the National Health and Family Planning Commission of China; CDC, Taiwan; the Hong Kong Centre for Health Protection; and the Macao CDC reported 759 human infections with Asian H7N9 viruses, including 281 deaths, to the World Health Organization (WHO), making this the largest of the five epidemics of Asian H7N9 infections that have occurred since 2013 (Figure 1). This report summarizes new viral and epidemiologic features identified during the fifth epidemic of Asian H7N9 in China and summarizes ongoing measures to enhance pandemic preparedness. Infections in humans and poultry were reported from most areas of China, including provinces bordering other countries, indicating extensive, ongoing geographic spread. The risk to the general public is very low and most human infections were, and continue to be, associated with poultry exposure, especially at live bird markets in mainland China. Throughout the first four epidemics of Asian H7N9 infections, only low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) viruses were detected among human, poultry, and environmental specimens and samples. During the fifth epidemic, mutations were detected among some Asian H7N9 viruses, identifying the emergence of high pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) viruses as well as viruses with reduced susceptibility to influenza antiviral medications recommended for treatment. Furthermore, the fifth-epidemic viruses diverged genetically into two separate lineages (Pearl River Delta lineage and Yangtze River Delta lineage), with Yangtze River Delta lineage viruses emerging as antigenically different compared with those from earlier epidemics. Because of its pandemic potential, candidate vaccine viruses

  4. Rapid spread of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses with a new set of specific mutations in the internal genes in the beginning of 2015/2016 epidemic season in Moscow and Saint Petersburg (Russian Federation).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Komissarov, Andrey; Fadeev, Artem; Sergeeva, Maria; Petrov, Sergey; Sintsova, Kseniya; Egorova, Anna; Pisareva, Maria; Buzitskaya, Zhanna; Musaeva, Tamila; Danilenko, Daria; Konovalova, Nadezhda; Petrova, Polina; Stolyarov, Kirill; Smorodintseva, Elizaveta; Burtseva, Elena; Krasnoslobodtsev, Kirill; Kirillova, Elena; Karpova, Lyudmila; Eropkin, Mikhail; Sominina, Anna; Grudinin, Mikhail

    2016-07-01

    A dramatic increase of influenza activity in Russia since week 3 of 2016 significantly differs from previous seasons in terms of the incidence of influenza and acute respiratory infection (ARI) and in number of lethal cases. We performed antigenic analysis of 108 and whole-genome sequencing of 77 influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses from Moscow and Saint Petersburg. Most of the viruses were antigenically related to the vaccine strain. Whole-genome analysis revealed a composition of specific mutations in the internal genes (D2E and M83I in NEP, E125D in NS1, M105T in NP, Q208K in M1, and N204S in PA-X) that probably emerged before the beginning of 2015/2016 epidemic season. © 2016 The Authors. Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  5. Evaluation of clinical features scoring system as screening tool for influenza A (H1N1 in epidemic situations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P Ranjan

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Influenza A (H1N1 hit the headlines in recent times and created mass hysteria and general panic. The high cost and non-availability of diagnostic laboratory tests for swine flu, especially in the developing countries underlines the need of having a cheaper, easily available, yet reasonably accurate screening test. Aims: This study was carried out to develop a clinical feature-based scoring system (CFSS for influenza A (H1N1 and to evaluate its suitability as a screening tool when large numbers of influenza-like illness cases are suspect. Settings and Design: Clinical-record based study, carried out retrospectively in post-pandemic period on subject′s case-sheets who had been quarantined at IG International Airport′s quarantine center at Delhi. Materials and Methods: Clinical scoring of each suspected case was done by studying their case record sheet and compared with the results of RT-PCR. RT-PCR was used to confirm the diagnosis (Gold Standard. Statistical Analysis: We calculated sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values of the clinical feature-based scoring system (the proposed new screening tool at different cut-off values. The most discriminant cut-off value was determined by plotting the ROC curve. Results: Of the 638 suspected cases, 127 (20% were confirmed to have H1N1 by RT-PCR examination. On the basis of ROC, the most discriminant clinical feature score for diagnosing Influenza A was found to be 7, which yielded sensitivity, specificity, positive, and negative predictive values of 86%, 88%, 64%, and 96%, respectively. Conclusion: The clinical features scoring system (CFSS can be used as a valid and cost-effective tool for screening swine flu (influenza A (H1N1 cases from large number of influenza-like illness suspects.

  6. Influenza surveillance

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    Karolina Bednarska

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Influenza surveillance was established in 1947. From this moment WHO (World Health Organization has been coordinating international cooperation, with a goal of monitoring influenza virus activity, effective diagnostic of the circulating viruses and informing society about epidemics or pandemics, as well as about emergence of new subtypes of influenza virus type A. Influenza surveillance is an important task, because it enables people to prepare themselves for battle with the virus that is constantly mutating, what leads to circulation of new and often more virulent strains of influenza in human population. As vaccination is the most effective method of fighting the virus, one of the major tasks of GISRS is developing an optimal antigenic composition of the vaccine for the current epidemic season. European Influenza Surveillance Network (EISN has also developed over the years. EISN is running integrated epidemiological and virological influenza surveillance, to provide appropriate data to public health experts in member countries, to enable them undertaking relevant activities based on the current information about influenza activity. In close cooperation with GISRS and EISN are National Influenza Centres - national institutions designated by the Ministry of Health in each country.

  7. Trivalent MDCK cell culture-derived influenza vaccine Optaflu (Novartis Vaccines).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doroshenko, Alexander; Halperin, Scott A

    2009-06-01

    Annual influenza epidemics continue to have a considerable impact in both developed and developing countries. Vaccination remains the principal measure to prevent seasonal influenza and reduce associated morbidity and mortality. The WHO recommends using established mammalian cell culture lines as an alternative to egg-based substrates in the manufacture of influenza vaccine. In June 2007, the EMEA approved Optaflu, a Madin Darby canine kidney cell culture-derived influenza vaccine manufactured by Novartis Vaccines. This review examines the advantages and disadvantages of cell culture-based technology for influenza vaccine production, compares immunogenicity and safety data for Optaflu with that of currently marketed conventional egg-based influenza vaccines, and considers the prospects for wider use of cell culture-based influenza vaccines.

  8. Risk factors for the introduction of high pathogenicity Avian Influenza virus into poultry farms during the epidemic in the Netherlands in 2003.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, M E; Bouma, A; Ekker, H M; Fonken, A J M; Stegeman, J A; Nielen, M

    2005-06-10

    An epidemic of high pathogenicity Avian Influenza (HPAI) occurred in the Netherlands in 2003. A census survey of 173 infected and 401 uninfected commercial poultry farms was carried out to identify factors associated with the introduction of the HPAI virus into poultry farms. Data on farm size, production characteristics, type of housing, presence of cattle and pigs were gathered by the National Inspection Service for Livestock and Meat from all farms included in this study. For each risk factor (RF) available for analysis, the Mantel-Haenszel odds ratio was calculated (stratified on farm size and housing type). We found an increased risk of HPAI virus introduction in layer finisher type poultry: OR = 2.05 (95% confidence interval, CI = 1.29-3.27). An explanation for this increased risk is the high number of contacts between these farms, especially via cardboard egg trays used for removal of eggs during the epidemic. Our analysis did not indicate significant differences between the infected and uninfected farms with regard to housing type, presence of cattle or pigs. Since layer finisher type farms are assumed to be at higher risk for HPAI virus introduction, more specific control measures might be applied in future outbreaks.

  9. Delayed norovirus epidemic in the 2009-2010 season in Japan: potential relationship with intensive hand sanitizer use for pandemic influenza.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Inaida, S; Shobugawa, Y; Matsuno, S; Saito, R; Suzuki, H

    2016-09-01

    Norovirus (NoV) epidemics normally peak in December in Japan; however, the peak in the 2009-2010 season was delayed until the fourth week of January 2010. We suspected intensive hand hygiene that was conducted for a previous pandemic influenza in 2009 as the cause of this delay. We analysed the NoV epidemic trend, based on national surveillance data, and its associations with monthly output data for hand hygiene products, including alcohol-based skin antiseptics and hand soap. The delayed peak in the NoV incidence in the 2009-2010 season had the lowest number of recorded cases of the five seasons studied (2006-2007 to 2010-2011). GII.4 was the most commonly occurring genotype. The monthly relative risk of NoV and monthly output of both alcohol-based skin antiseptics and hand soap were significantly and negatively correlated. Our findings suggest an association between hand hygiene using these products and prevention of NoV transmission.

  10. The application of GIS and RS for epidemics: a case study of the spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza in China in 2004-2005

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhong, Shaobo; Lan, Guiwen; Zhu, Haiguo; Wen, Renqiang; Zhao, Qiansheng; Huang, Quanyi

    2008-12-01

    Because of their inherent advantages, Geographic Information System (GIS) and Remote Sensing (RS) are extremely useful for dealing with geographically referenced information. In the study of epidemics, most data are geographically referenced, which makes GIS and RS the perfect even necessary tools for processing, analysis, representation of epidemic data. Comprehensively considering the data requirements in the study of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) coupled with the quality of the existing remotely sensed data in terms of the resolution of space, time and spectra, the data sensed by MODIS are chosen and the relevant methods and procedures of data processing from RS and GIS for some environmental factors are proposed. Through using spatial analysis functions and Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis (ESDA) of GIS, some results of relationship between HPAI occurrences and these potential factors are presented. The role played by bird migration is also preliminarily illustrated with some operations such as visualization, overlapping etc. provided by GIS. Through the work of this paper, we conclude: Firstly, the migration of birds causes the spread of HPAI all over the country in 2004-2005. Secondly, the migration of birds is the reason why the spread of HPAI is perturbed. That is, for some classic communicable diseases, their spread exhibits obvious spatial diffusion process. However, the spread of HPAI breaks this general rule. We think leap diffusion and time lag are the probable reasons for this kind of phenomena. Potential distribution of HPAI viruses (corresponding to the distribution of flyways and putative risk sources) is not completely consistent with the occurrences of HPAI. For this phenomenon, we think, in addition to the flyways of birds, all kinds of geographical, climatic factors also have important effect on the occurrences of HPAI. Through the case study of HPAI, we can see that GIS and RS can play very important roles in the study of epidemics.

  11. Breaking the waves: modelling the potential impact of public health measures to defer the epidemic peak of novel influenza A/H1N1.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthias An der Heiden

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: On June 11, 2009, the World Health Organization declared phase 6 of the novel influenza A/H1N1 pandemic. Although by the end of September 2009, the novel virus had been reported from all continents, the impact in most countries of the northern hemisphere has been limited. The return of the virus in a second wave would encounter populations that are still nonimmune and not vaccinated yet. We modelled the effect of control strategies to reduce the spread with the goal to defer the epidemic wave in a country where it is detected in a very early stage. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We constructed a deterministic SEIR model using the age distribution and size of the population of Germany based on the observed number of imported cases and the early findings for the epidemiologic characteristics described by Fraser (Science, 2009. We propose a two-step control strategy with an initial effort to trace, quarantine, and selectively give prophylactic treatment to contacts of the first 100 to 500 cases. In the second step, the same measures are focused on the households of the next 5,000 to 10,000 cases. As a result, the peak of the epidemic could be delayed up to 7.6 weeks if up to 30% of cases are detected. However, the cumulative attack rates would not change. Necessary doses of antivirals would be less than the number of treatment courses for 0.1% of the population. In a sensitivity analysis, both case detection rate and the variation of R0 have major effects on the resulting delay. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Control strategies that reduce the spread of the disease during the early phase of a pandemic wave may lead to a substantial delay of the epidemic. Since prophylactic treatment is only offered to the contacts of the first 10,000 cases, the amount of antivirals needed is still very limited.

  12. Needle-free influenza vaccination

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Amorij, Jean-Pierre; Hinrichs, Wouter L.J.; Frijlink, Henderik W.; Wilschut, Jan C.; Huckriede, Anke

    2010-01-01

    Vaccination is the cornerstone of influenza control in epidemic and pandemic situations. Influenza vaccines are typically given by intramuscular injection. However, needle-free vaccinations could offer several distinct advantages over intramuscular injections: they are pain-free, easier to

  13. The role of genomics in tracking the evolution of influenza A virus.

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    Alice Carolyn McHardy

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available Influenza A virus causes annual epidemics and occasional pandemics of short-term respiratory infections associated with considerable morbidity and mortality. The pandemics occur when new human-transmissible viruses that have the major surface protein of influenza A viruses from other host species are introduced into the human population. Between such rare events, the evolution of influenza is shaped by antigenic drift: the accumulation of mutations that result in changes in exposed regions of the viral surface proteins. Antigenic drift makes the virus less susceptible to immediate neutralization by the immune system in individuals who have had a previous influenza infection or vaccination. A biannual reevaluation of the vaccine composition is essential to maintain its effectiveness due to this immune escape. The study of influenza genomes is key to this endeavor, increasing our understanding of antigenic drift and enhancing the accuracy of vaccine strain selection. Recent large-scale genome sequencing and antigenic typing has considerably improved our understanding of influenza evolution: epidemics around the globe are seeded from a reservoir in East-Southeast Asia with year-round prevalence of influenza viruses; antigenically similar strains predominate in epidemics worldwide for several years before being replaced by a new antigenic cluster of strains. Future in-depth studies of the influenza reservoir, along with large-scale data mining of genomic resources and the integration of epidemiological, genomic, and antigenic data, should enhance our understanding of antigenic drift and improve the detection and control of antigenically novel emerging strains.

  14. CLINICAL AND LABORATORY ANALYSIS OF LETHAL CASES OF SEVERE INFLUENZA A(H1N1 PDM 2009 DURING THE EPIDEMIC 2015/2016 IN ST. PETERSBURG

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    L. V. Voloshсhuk

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of our study was to investigate the characteristics of severe form of influenza A (H1N1 pdm 2009 with a fatal outcome, given the comorbidities. Materials and methods. Medical histories of 105 people who died in hospitals of St. Petersburg for the period of the epidemic of 2015/16 served as material for analysis.The lethality caused by the pandemic virus type A/ H1N1 / 2009 pdm was higher in males. Most of the patients had concomitant chronic diseases in the anamnesis. Obesity was observed in 44.8% (47/105 of patients, diabetes mellitus — 28.5% (30/105, isolated heart disease — 19.0% (20/ 105, combined pathology — 48.6% (51/105. In the first biochemical analysis of blood, creatine phosphokinase, lactate dehydrogenase were increased, total protein and prothrombin consumption index were reduced. The patient's death occurred after 5 days of illness in 88.6% cases, in 11.4% — up to 5 days of illness (inclusive. The analysis of fatal cases up to 5 days of a disease and death from complications (2—4 week didn't find significant differences in the character and frequency of comorbidity. Specific antiviral therapy has been assigned to all patients, but 48 hours later.Bilateral subtotal viral and bacterial pneumonia was identified on the section, in the majority of cases, in 70.5% with hemorrhagic component. 30% patients had cerebral oedema, 41% patients had severe toxic parenchymatouse degeneration of miocardium, liver and kidneys. The pathology of the cardiovascular system, diabetes and obesity worsen the prognosis of the disease. Increased creatine phosphokinase, lactate dehydrogenase, and reduced total protein and prothrombin consumption index can be considered as markers of severe influenza. The ineffectiveness of antiviral therapy due to its late appointment, thus timely initiation of etiotropic treatment is very impotent. 

  15. Evolution of Therapeutic Antibodies, Influenza Virus Biology, Influenza, and Influenza Immunotherapy

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    Urai Chaisri

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available This narrative review article summarizes past and current technologies for generating antibodies for passive immunization/immunotherapy. Contemporary DNA and protein technologies have facilitated the development of engineered therapeutic monoclonal antibodies in a variety of formats according to the required effector functions. Chimeric, humanized, and human monoclonal antibodies to antigenic/epitopic myriads with less immunogenicity than animal-derived antibodies in human recipients can be produced in vitro. Immunotherapy with ready-to-use antibodies has gained wide acceptance as a powerful treatment against both infectious and noninfectious diseases. Influenza, a highly contagious disease, precipitates annual epidemics and occasional pandemics, resulting in high health and economic burden worldwide. Currently available drugs are becoming less and less effective against this rapidly mutating virus. Alternative treatment strategies are needed, particularly for individuals at high risk for severe morbidity. In a setting where vaccines are not yet protective or available, human antibodies that are broadly effective against various influenza subtypes could be highly efficacious in lowering morbidity and mortality and controlling unprecedented epidemic/pandemic. Prototypes of human single-chain antibodies to several conserved proteins of influenza virus with no Fc portion (hence, no ADE effect in recipients are available. These antibodies have high potential as a novel, safe, and effective anti-influenza agent.

  16. Comparative epidemiology of influenza A and B viral infection in a subtropical region: a 7-year surveillance in Okinawa, Japan

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    Yoshikazu Iha

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The epidemic patterns of influenza B infection and their association with climate conditions are not well understood. Influenza surveillance in Okinawa is important for clarifying transmission patterns in both temperate and tropical regions. Using surveillance data, collected over 7 years in the subtropical region of Japan, this study aims to characterize the epidemic patterns of influenza B infection and its association with ambient temperature and relative humidity, in a parallel comparison with influenza A. Methods From January 2007 until March 2014, two individual influenza surveillance datasets were collected from external sources. The first dataset, included weekly rapid antigen test (RAT results from four representative general hospitals, located in the capital city of Okinawa. A nation-wide surveillance of influenza, diagnosed by RAT results and/or influenza-like illness symptoms, included the age distribution of affected patients and was used as the second dataset. To analyze the association between infection and local climate conditions, ambient temperature and relative humidity during the study period were retrieved from the Japanese Meteorological Agency website. Results Although influenza A maintained high number of infections from December through March, epidemics of influenza B infection were observed annually from March through July. The only observed exception was 2010, when the pandemic strain of 2009 dominated. During influenza B outbreaks, influenza patients aged 5 to 9 years old and 10 to 14 years old more frequently visited sentinel sites. Although both ambient temperature and relative humidity are inversely associated with influenza A infection, influenza B infection was found to be directly associated with high relative humidity. Conclusion Further studies are needed to elucidate the complex epidemiology of influenza B and its relationship with influenza A. In the subtropical setting of Okinawa

  17. No serological evidence that harbour porpoises are additional hosts of influenza B viruses.

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    Rogier Bodewes

    Full Text Available Influenza A and B viruses circulate among humans causing epidemics almost annually. While various hosts for influenza A viruses exist, influenza B viruses have been detected only in humans and seals. However, recurrent infections of seals in Dutch coastal waters with influenza B viruses that are antigenetically distinct from influenza B viruses circulating among humans suggest that influenza B viruses have been introduced into this seal population by another, non-human, host. Harbour porpoises (Phocoena phocoena are sympatric with seals in these waters and are also occasionally in close contact with humans after stranding and subsequent rehabilitation. In addition, virus attachment studies demonstrated that influenza B viruses can bind to cells of the respiratory tract of these animals. Therefore, we hypothesized that harbour porpoises might be a reservoir of influenza B viruses. In the present study, an unique set of serum samples from 79 harbour porpoises, stranded alive on the Dutch coast between 2003 and 2013, was tested for the presence of antibodies against influenza B viruses by use of the hemagglutination inhibition test and for antibodies against influenza A viruses by use of a competitive influenza A nucleoprotein ELISA. No antibodies were detected against either virus, suggesting that influenza A and B virus infections of harbour porpoises in Dutch coastal waters are not common, which was supported by statistical analysis of the dataset.

  18. Emerging influenza viruses and the prospect of a universal influenza virus vaccine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krammer, Florian

    2015-05-01

    Influenza viruses cause annual seasonal epidemics and pandemics at irregular intervals. Several cases of human infections with avian and swine influenza viruses have been detected recently, warranting enhanced surveillance and the development of more effective countermeasures to address the pandemic potential of these viruses. The most effective countermeasure against influenza virus infection is the use of prophylactic vaccines. However, vaccines that are currently in use for seasonal influenza viruses have to be re-formulated and re-administered in a cumbersome process every year due to the antigenic drift of the virus. Furthermore, current seasonal vaccines are ineffective against novel pandemic strains. This paper reviews zoonotic influenza viruses with pandemic potential and technological advances towards better vaccines that induce broad and long lasting protection from influenza virus infection. Recent efforts have focused on the development of broadly protective/universal influenza virus vaccines that can provide immunity against drifted seasonal influenza virus strains but also against potential pandemic viruses. Copyright © 2015 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  19. Impact of information on intentions to vaccinate in a potential epidemic: Swine-origin Influenza A (H1N1).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chanel, Olivier; Luchini, Stéphane; Massoni, Sébastien; Vergnaud, Jean-Christophe

    2011-01-01

    Vaccination campaigns to prevent the spread of epidemics are successful only if the targeted populations subscribe to the recommendations of health authorities. However, because compulsory vaccination is hardly conceivable in modern democracies, governments need to convince their populations through efficient and persuasive information campaigns. In the context of the swine-origin A (H1N1) 2009 pandemic, we use an interactive study among the general public in the South of France, with 175 participants, to explore what type of information can induce change in vaccination intentions at both aggregate and individual levels. We find that individual attitudes to vaccination are based on rational appraisal of the situation, and that it is information of a purely scientific nature that has the only significant positive effect on intention to vaccinate. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Universal immunity to influenza must outwit immune evasion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sergio Manuel Quinones-Parra

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Although an influenza vaccine has been available for 70 years, influenza virus still causes seasonal epidemics and worldwide pandemics. Currently available vaccines elicit strain-specific antibody responses to the surface haemagglutinin (HA and neuraminidase (NA proteins, but these can be ineffective against serologically-distinct viral variants and novel subtypes. Thus, there is a need for cross-protective or universal influenza vaccines to overcome the necessity for annual immunisation against seasonal influenza and to provide immunity to reduce the severity of infection with pandemic or outbreak viruses. It is well established that natural influenza infection can provide cross-reactive immunity that can reduce the impact of infection with distinct influenza type A strains and subtypes, including H1N1, H3N2, H2N2, H5N1 and H7N9. The key to generating universal influenza immunity via vaccination is to target functionally-conserved regions of the virus, which include epitopes on the internal proteins for cross-reactive T cell immunity or on the HA stem for broadly reactive antibody responses. In the wake of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic, broadly neutralizing antibodies have been characterized and isolated from convalescent and vaccinated individuals, inspiring development of new vaccination techniques to elicit such responses. Induction of influenza-specific T cell responses through vaccination has also been examined in clinical trials. Strong evidence is available from human and animal models of influenza to show that established influenza-specific T cell memory can reduce viral shedding and symptom severity. However, the published evidence also shows that CD8+ T cells can efficiently select immune escape mutants early after influenza virus infection. Here, we discuss universal immunity to influenza viruses mediated by both cross-reactive T cells and antibodies, the mechanisms of immune evasion in influenza, and how to counteract commonly occurring

  1. Influenza Vaccination in Community Dwelling Elderly Persons

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    A.C.G. Voordouw (Bettie)

    2005-01-01

    textabstractAn influenza epidemic was first described in 1173, although there are reports of influenza as early as 412 BC. Recurrent epidemics and incidental pandemics caused by influenza virus are documented since the last 400 years. These were based upon clinical observation and epidemiology.

  2. Avian Influenza.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeitlin, Gary Adam; Maslow, Melanie Jane

    2005-05-01

    The current epidemic of H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza in Southeast Asia raises serious concerns that genetic reassortment will result in the next influenza pandemic. There have been 164 confirmed cases of human infection with avian influenza since 1996. In 2004, there were 45 cases of human H5N1 in Vietnam and Thailand, with a mortality rate more than 70%. In addition to the potential public health hazard, the current zoonotic epidemic has caused severe economic losses. Efforts must be concentrated on early detection of bird outbreaks with aggressive culling, quarantining, and disinfection. To prepare for and prevent an increase in human cases, it is essential to improve detection methods and stockpile effective antivirals. Novel therapeutic modalities, including short-interfering RNAs and new vaccine strategies that use plasmid-based genetic systems, offer promise should a pandemic occur.

  3. INFLUENZA SURVEILLANCE IN RUSSIA BASED ON EPIDEMIOLOGICAL AND LABORATORY DATA FOR THE PERIOD FROM 2005 TO 2012

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anna, Sominina; Burtseva, Elena; Eropkin, Mikhail; Karpova, Ludmila; Zarubaev, Vladimir; Smorodintseva, Elizaveta; Konovalova, Nadezhda; Danilenko, Daria; Prokopetz, Alexandra; Grudinin, Mikhail; Pisareva, Maria; Anfimov, Pavel; Stolyarov, Kirill; Kiselev, Oleg; Shevchenko, Elena; Ivanova, Valeriya; Trushakova, Svetlana; Breslav, Nataliya; Lvov, Dmitriy; Klimov, Alexander; Moen, Ann; Cox, Nancy

    2015-01-01

    Exchange of information on and sharing of influenza viruses through the GISRS network has great significance for understanding influenza virus evolution, recognition of a new pandemic virus emergence and for preparing annual WHO recommendations on influenza vaccine strain composition. Influenza surveillance in Russia is based on collaboration of two NICs with 59 Regional Bases. Most epidemiological and laboratory data are entered through the internet into the electronic database at the Research Institute of Influenza (RII), where they are analyzed and then reported to the Ministry of Public Health of Russia. Simultaneously, data are introduced into WHO’s Flu Net and Euro Flu, both electronic databases. Annual influenza epidemics of moderate intensity were registered during four pre-pandemic seasons. Children aged 0–2 and 3–6 years were the most affected groups of the population. Influenza registered clinically among hospitalized patients with respiratory infections for the whole epidemic period varied between 1.3 and 5.4% and up but to 18.5–23.0% during the peak of the two pandemic waves caused by influenza A(H1N1) pdm 09 virus and to lesser extent (2.9 to 8.5%) during usual seasonal epidemics. Most epidemics were associated with influenza A(H1N1), A(H3N2) and B co-circulation. During the two pandemic waves (in 2009–2010 and 2010–2011) influenza A(H1N1) pdm 09 predominated. It was accompanied by a rapid growth of influenza morbidity with a significant increase of both hospitalization and mortality. The new pandemic virus displaced the previous seasonal A(H1N1) virus completely. As a rule, most of the influenza viruses circulating in Russia were antigenic ally related to the strains recommended by WHO for vaccine composition for the Northern hemisphere with the exception of two seasons when an unexpected replacement of the influenza B Victoria lineage by Yamagata lineage (2007–2008) and the following return of Victoria lineage viruses (2008–2009) was

  4. [Human exposure to live poultry among residents during the second wave of avian influenza A (H7N9) epidemic in Beijing, 2013-2014].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, S S; Yang, P; Wang, Q Y; Zhang, H Y; Chu, Y H; Li, H J; Hua, W Y; Tang, Y Q; Li, C

    2017-11-10

    Objective: To investigate human exposure to live poultry (poultry feeding and purchasing) in the residents in Beijing and related factors during the second wave of avian influenza A(H7N9) epidemic during 2013-2014, and provide scientific evidence for avian influenza prevention and control. Methods: A total of 7 366 adults aged ≥18 years were selected through multi-stage stratified sampling in Beijing for a questionnaire survey. Logistic regression model was used to analyze the influence factors of human exposure to live poultry. Results: The live poultry feeding rate and live poultry purchasing rate in residents in Beijing in the past year were 5.3% (95 %CI : 4.8%-5.8%) and 6.0% (95 %CI : 5.5%-6.5%) respectively. Logistic regression analysis indicated that lower educational level of primary school and below, ( OR =1.82, 95 %CI : 1.22-2.72); being farmer ( OR =2.49, 95 %CI :1.89-3.29) or being unemployed ( OR =1.65, 95 %CI : 1.08-2.52); being non local resident ( OR =1.54, 95 %CI : 1.10-2.16); living in suburban area ( OR =2.36, 95 %CI : 1.77-3.16); having one child ( OR =1.76, 95 %CI : 1.42-2.17) or ≥2 children ( OR =2.15, 95 %CI : 1.43-3.22) in the family were the risk factors associated with feeding poultry compared with higher educational level of college and above, being employed, being local resident, living in urban area and having no child. And being farmer ( OR =1.61, 95 %CI : 1.27-2.02); being non local resident ( OR =1.76, 95 %CI : 1.31-2.35); living in suburban area ( OR =2.05, 95 %CI : 1.61-2.61); having one child ( OR =1.24, 95 %CI : 1.02-1.52) or ≥2 children ( OR =1.78, 95 %CI : 1.21-2.63) were the risk factors for purchasing live poultry. Conclusion: Some residents living in Beijing still have exposure to live poultry, and targeted measures should be taken to reduce the exposure to poultry.

  5. Using routine surveillance data to estimate the epidemic potential of emerging zoonoses: application to the emergence of US swine origin influenza A H3N2v virus.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simon Cauchemez

    Full Text Available Prior to emergence in human populations, zoonoses such as SARS cause occasional infections in human populations exposed to reservoir species. The risk of widespread epidemics in humans can be assessed by monitoring the reproduction number R (average number of persons infected by a human case. However, until now, estimating R required detailed outbreak investigations of human clusters, for which resources and expertise are not always available. Additionally, existing methods do not correct for important selection and under-ascertainment biases. Here, we present simple estimation methods that overcome many of these limitations.Our approach is based on a parsimonious mathematical model of disease transmission and only requires data collected through routine surveillance and standard case investigations. We apply it to assess the transmissibility of swine-origin influenza A H3N2v-M virus in the US, Nipah virus in Malaysia and Bangladesh, and also present a non-zoonotic example (cholera in the Dominican Republic. Estimation is based on two simple summary statistics, the proportion infected by the natural reservoir among detected cases (G and among the subset of the first detected cases in each cluster (F. If detection of a case does not affect detection of other cases from the same cluster, we find that R can be estimated by 1-G; otherwise R can be estimated by 1-F when the case detection rate is low. In more general cases, bounds on R can still be derived.We have developed a simple approach with limited data requirements that enables robust assessment of the risks posed by emerging zoonoses. We illustrate this by deriving transmissibility estimates for the H3N2v-M virus, an important step in evaluating the possible pandemic threat posed by this virus. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

  6. School-based influenza vaccination: parents' perspectives.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Candace Lind

    Full Text Available School-age children are important drivers of annual influenza epidemics yet influenza vaccination coverage of this population is low despite universal publicly funded influenza vaccination in Alberta, Canada. Immunizing children at school may potentially increase vaccine uptake. As parents are a key stakeholder group for such a program, it is important to consider their concerns.We explored parents' perspectives on the acceptability of adding an annual influenza immunization to the immunization program that is currently delivered in Alberta schools, and obtained suggestions for structuring such a program.Forty-eight parents of children aged 5-18 years participated in 9 focus groups. Participants lived in urban areas of the Alberta Health Services Calgary Zone.Three major themes emerged: Advantages of school-based influenza vaccination (SBIV, Disadvantages of SBIV, and Implications for program design & delivery. Advantages were perceived to occur for different populations: children (e.g. emotional support, families (e.g. convenience, the community (e.g. benefits for school and multicultural communities, the health sector (e.g. reductions in costs due to burden of illness and to society at large (e.g. indirect conduit of information about health services, building structure for pandemic preparedness, building healthy lifestyles. Disadvantages, however, might also occur for children (e.g. older children less likely to be immunized, families (e.g. communication challenges, perceived loss of parental control over information, choices and decisions and the education sector (loss of instructional time. Nine second-level themes emerged within the major theme of Implications for program design & delivery: program goals/objectives, consent process, stakeholder consultation, age-appropriate program, education, communication, logistics, immunizing agent, and clinic process.Parents perceived advantages and disadvantages to delivering annual seasonal

  7. The dynamics of avian influenza in western Arctic snow geese: implications for annual and migratory infection patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samuel, Michael D.; Hall, Jeffrey S.; Brown, Justin D.; Goldberg, Diana R.; Ip, Hon S.; Baranyuk, Vasily V.

    2015-01-01

    Wild water birds are the natural reservoir for low-pathogenic avian influenza viruses (AIV). However, our ability to investigate the epizootiology of AIV in these migratory populations is challenging, and despite intensive worldwide surveillance, remains poorly understood. We conducted a cross-sectional, retrospective analysis in Pacific Flyway lesser snow geese Chen caerulescens to investigate AIV serology and infection patterns. We collected nearly 3,000 sera samples from snow geese at 2 breeding colonies in Russia and Canada during 1993-1996 and swab samples from > 4,000 birds at wintering and migration areas in the United States during 2006-2011. We found seroprevalence and annual seroconversion varied considerably among years. Seroconversion and infection rates also differed between snow goose breeding colonies and wintering areas, suggesting that AIV exposure in this gregarious waterfowl species is likely occurring during several phases (migration, wintering and potentially breeding areas) of the annual cycle. We estimated AIV antibody persistence was longer (14 months) in female geese compared to males (6 months). This relatively long period of AIV antibody persistence suggests that subtype-specific serology may be an effective tool for detection of exposure to subtypes associated with highly-pathogenic AIV. Our study provides further evidence of high seroprevalence in Arctic goose populations, and estimates of annual AIV seroconversion and antibody persistence for North American waterfowl. We suggest future AIV studies include serology to help elucidate the epizootiological dynamics of AIV in wild bird populations.

  8. Recurrent dynamics in an epidemic model due to stimulated bifurcation crossovers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Juanico, Drandreb Earl

    2015-01-01

    Epidemics are known to persist in the form of recurrence cycles. Despite intervention efforts through vaccination and targeted social distancing, peaks of activity for infectious diseases like influenza reappear over time. Analysis of a stochastic model is here undertaken to explore a proposed cycle-generating mechanism – the bifurcation crossover. Time series from simulations of the model exhibit oscillations similar to the temporal signature of influenza activity. Power-spectral density indicates a resonant frequency, which corresponds to the annual seasonality of influenza in temperate zones. The study finds that intervention actions influence the extinguishability of epidemic activity. Asymptotic solution to a backward Kolmogorov equation corresponds to a mean extinction time that is a function of both intervention efficacy and population size. Intervention efficacy must be greater than a certain threshold to increase the chances of extinguishing the epidemic. Agreement of the model with several phenomenological features of epidemic cycles lends to it a tractability that may serve as early warning of imminent outbreaks

  9. Recurrent dynamics in an epidemic model due to stimulated bifurcation crossovers

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Juanico, Drandreb Earl [Department of Mathematics, Ateneo de Manila University, Loyola Heights, Quezon City, Philippines 1108 (Philippines); National Institute of Physics, University of the Philippines, Diliman, Quezon City, Philippines 1101 (Philippines)

    2015-05-15

    Epidemics are known to persist in the form of recurrence cycles. Despite intervention efforts through vaccination and targeted social distancing, peaks of activity for infectious diseases like influenza reappear over time. Analysis of a stochastic model is here undertaken to explore a proposed cycle-generating mechanism – the bifurcation crossover. Time series from simulations of the model exhibit oscillations similar to the temporal signature of influenza activity. Power-spectral density indicates a resonant frequency, which corresponds to the annual seasonality of influenza in temperate zones. The study finds that intervention actions influence the extinguishability of epidemic activity. Asymptotic solution to a backward Kolmogorov equation corresponds to a mean extinction time that is a function of both intervention efficacy and population size. Intervention efficacy must be greater than a certain threshold to increase the chances of extinguishing the epidemic. Agreement of the model with several phenomenological features of epidemic cycles lends to it a tractability that may serve as early warning of imminent outbreaks.

  10. Heterosybtypic T-cell immunity to influenza in humans: challenges for universal T-cell influenza vaccines

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saranya eSridhar

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Influenza A virus (IAV remains a significant global health issue causing annual epidemics, pandemics and sporadic human infections with highly pathogenic avian or swine influenza viruses. Current inactivated and live vaccines are the mainstay of the public health response to influenza although vaccine efficacy is lower against antigenically distinct viral strains. The first pandemic of the 21st century underlined the urgent need to develop new vaccines capable of protection against a broad range of influenza strains. Such universal influenza vaccines are based on the idea of heterosubtypic immunity wherein immune responses to epitopes conserved across IAV strains can confer protection against subsequent infection and disease. T-cells recognising conserved antigens are a key contributor to reducing viral load and limiting disease severity during heterosubtypic infection in animal models. Recent studies undertaken during the 2009 H1N1 pandemic provided key insights into the role of cross-reactive T-cells in mediating heterosubtypic protection in humans. This review focuses on human influenza to discuss the epidemiological observations that underpin cross-protective immunity, the role of T-cells as key players in mediating heterosubtypic immunity including recent data from natural history cohort studies and the ongoing clinical development of T-cell inducing universal influenza vaccines. The challenges and knowledge gaps for developing vaccines to generate long-lived protective T-cell responses is discussed.

  11. Influenza seasonality goes south in the Yucatan Peninsula: The case for a different influenza vaccine calendar in this Mexican region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ayora-Talavera, Guadalupe; Flores, Gerardo Montalvo-Zurbia; Gómez-Carballo, Jesus; González-Losa, Refugio; Conde-Ferraez, Laura; Puerto-Solís, Marylin; López-Martínez, Irma; Díaz-Quiñonez, Alberto; Barrera-Badillo, Gisela; Acuna-Soto, Rodolfo; Livinski, Alicia A; Alonso, Wladimir J

    2017-08-24

    While vaccination may be relatively straightforward for regions with a well-defined winter season, the situation is quite different for tropical regions. Influenza activity in tropical regions might be out of phase with the dynamics predicted for their hemispheric group thereby impacting the effectiveness of the immunization campaign. To investigate how the climatic diversity of Mexico hinders its existing influenza immunization strategy and to suggest that the hemispheric vaccine recommendations be tailored to the regional level in order to optimize vaccine effectiveness. We studied the seasonality of influenza throughoutMexico by modeling virological and mortality data.De-trended time series of each Mexican state were analyzed by Fourier decomposition to describe the amplitude and timing of annual influenza epidemic cycles and to compare with each the timing of the WHO's Northern and Southern Hemispheric vaccination schedule. The timings of the primary (major) peaks of both virological and mortality data for most Mexican states are well aligned with the Northern Hemisphere winter (December-February) and vaccine schedule. However, influenza peaks in September in the three states of the Yucatan Peninsula. Influenza-related mortality also peaks in September in Quintana Roo and Yucatan whereas it peaks in May in Campeche. As the current timing of vaccination in Mexico is between October and November, more than half of the annual influenza cases have already occurred in the Yucatan Peninsula states by the time the Northern Hemispheric vaccine is delivered and administered. The current Northern Hemispheric influenza calendar adopted for Mexico is not optimal for the Yucatan Peninsula states thereby likely reducing the effectiveness of the immunization of the population. We recommend that Mexico tailor its immunization strategy to better reflect its climatologic and epidemiological diversity and adopt the WHO Southern Hemisphere influenza vaccine and schedule for the

  12. A public health initiative to increase annual influenza immunization among hospital health care personnel: the San Diego Hospital Influenza Immunization Partnership.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sawyer, Mark H; Peddecord, K Michael; Wang, Wendy; Deguire, Michelle; Miskewitch-Dzulynsky, Michelle; Vuong, David D

    2012-09-01

    A public health department-supported intervention to increase influenza immunization among hospital-based health care practitioners (HCPs) in San Diego County took place between 2005 and 2008. The study included all major hospitals in the county, with a population of approximately 3.5 million. Information on hospital activities was collected from before, during and after initiative activities. Vaccination status and demographics were collected directly from HCP using hospital-based and random-dialed telephone surveys. Between 2006 and 2008, hospitals increased promotion activities and reported increases in vaccination rates. Based on the random-dialed surveys, HCP influenza vaccination coverage rates did not increase significantly. Vaccination rates were significantly higher in HCPs who reported that employers provided free vaccination and those who believed that their employers mandated influenza vaccination. This local public health initiative and concurrent state legislation were effective in increasing employer efforts to promote influenza vaccination; however, population-based surveys of HCPs did not show significant increases in influenza vaccination. Overall, this study suggests that public health leadership, intensive employer promotion activities, and state-required declinations alone were not sufficient to significantly increase HCP influenza vaccination. Policymakers and employers should consider mandates to achieve optimal influenza vaccination among HCPs. Copyright © 2012 Association for Professionals in Infection Control and Epidemiology, Inc. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

  13. Waves of El Nino-southern Oscillation and Influenza Pandemics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olusegun Steven Ayodele Oluwole

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Influenza pandemics have occurred at irregular intervals for over 500 years, unlike seasonal influenza epidemics which occur annually. Although the risk factors are known, the basis for the timing of influenza pandemic waves are unknown. Coherence of peaks of El Niño and influenza pandemic in 2009–2010, however, suggests that both waves are coupled. This study was done to determine the relation of influenza pandemics to the peaks and waveforms of El Niño southern oscillation (ENSO. ENSO cycles from 1871–2015 which had El Niño phases were windowed from Multivariate El Niño Index. Influenza pandemic peaks were mapped to ENSO monthly time series. ENSO waveforms were compared graphically, and fitted to nonstationary cosinor models. Second order polynomial regression model was fitted to the peak and duration of El Niño. Agglomerative hierarchical cluster of ENSO waveforms was performed. All influenza pandemic peaks mapped to El Niño peaks, with lags of 0–5 months. ENSO waveforms during influenza pandemics share parameters of oscillation. Nonstationary cosinor models showed that ENSO cycles are complex waves. There was second order polynomial relationship between peak and duration of El Niños, p < 0.0001. ENSO waveforms clustered into four distinct groups. ENSO waveforms during influenza pandemics of 1889–1900, 1957–1958, and 1968–1969 linked closely. ENSO indices were significantly high from 7–16 months after onset of cycles, p < 0.0001. Surveillance for El Niño events to forecast periods of maximal transmission and survival of influenza A viruses is, therefore, crucial for public health control strategies.

  14. Seasonal influenza split vaccines confer partial cross-protection against heterologous influenza virus in ferrets when combined with the CAF01 adjuvant

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Dennis; Christensen, Jan P.; Korsholm, Karen S.

    2018-01-01

    Influenza epidemics occur annually, and estimated 5-10% of the adult population and 20-30% of children will become ill from influenza infection. Seasonal vaccines primarily work through the induction of neutralizing antibodies against the principal surface antigen hemagglutinin (HA). This important...... role of HA-specific antibodies explains why previous pandemics have emerged when new HAs have appeared in circulating human viruses. It has long been recognized that influenza virus-specific CD4(+) T cells are important in protection from infection through direct effector mechanisms or by providing...... help to B cells and CD8(+) T cells. However, the seasonal influenza vaccine is poor at inducing CD4(+) T-cell responses and needs to be combined with an adjuvant facilitating this response. In this study, we applied the ferret model to investigate the cross-protective efficacy of a heterologous...

  15. The evolving history of influenza viruses and influenza vaccines.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hannoun, Claude

    2013-09-01

    The isolation of influenza virus 80 years ago in 1933 very quickly led to the development of the first generation of live-attenuated vaccines. The first inactivated influenza vaccine was monovalent (influenza A). In 1942, a bivalent vaccine was produced after the discovery of influenza B. It was later discovered that influenza viruses mutated leading to antigenic changes. Since 1973, the WHO has issued annual recommendations for the composition of the influenza vaccine based on results from surveillance systems that identify currently circulating strains. In 1978, the first trivalent vaccine included two influenza A strains and one influenza B strain. Currently, there are two influenza B lineages circulating; in the latest WHO recommendations, it is suggested that a second B strain could be added to give a quadrivalent vaccine. The history of influenza vaccine and the associated technology shows how the vaccine has evolved to match the evolution of influenza viruses.

  16. Building a Grad Nation: Progress and Challenge in Ending the High School Dropout Epidemic. Annual Update 2015

    Science.gov (United States)

    DePaoli, Jennifer L.; Fox, Joanna Hornig; Ingram, Erin S.; Maushard, Mary; Bridgeland, John M.; Balfanz, Robert

    2015-01-01

    In 2013, the national high school graduation rate hit a record high of 81.4 percent, and for the third year in a row, the nation remained on pace to meet the 90 percent goal by the Class of 2020. This sixth annual update on America's high school dropout challenge shows that these gains have been made possible by raising graduation rates for…

  17. Building a Grad Nation: Progress and Challenge in Ending the High School Dropout Epidemic. Annual Update 2014

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balfanz, Robert; Bridgeland, John M.; Fox, Joanna Hornig; DePaoli, Jennifer L.; Ingram, Erin S.; Maushard, Mary

    2014-01-01

    This fifth annual update on America's high school dropout crisis shows that, for the first time in history, the nation has crossed the 80 percent high school graduation rate threshold and remains on pace, for the second year in a row, to meet the goal of a 90 percent high school graduation rate by the Class of 2020. This report highlights key…

  18. Efectos del Framing y representaciones sociales de epidemias sanitarias: El Caso de la Gripe A (Framing effects and social representations of health epidemics: The case of influenza A )

    OpenAIRE

    Nahia Idoyaga; José Francisco Valencia; Lorena Gil de Montes; Garbiñe Ortiz

    2012-01-01

    This study analyzed how the mass media covered the influenza A (H1N1) pandemic and its influence on the social representation of the disease. Framing theory and a model of collective symbolic coping were both used to explain the influence of the mass media on social representation. The study was based on analyzing information on the influenza A pandemic provided by national newspapers in Mexico and Spain between 2009 and 2010. The results show that that the development of the crisis affected ...

  19. Past Life and Future Effects—How Heterologous Infections Alter Immunity to Influenza Viruses

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aisha Souquette

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Influenza virus frequently mutates due to its error-prone polymerase. This feature contributes to influenza virus’s ability to evade pre-existing immunity, leading to annual epidemics and periodic pandemics. T cell memory plays a key protective role in the face of an antigenically distinct influenza virus strain because T cell targets are often derived from conserved internal proteins, whereas humoral immunity targets are often sites of increased mutation rates that are tolerated by the virus. Most studies of influenza T cell memory are conducted in naive, specific pathogen free mice and do not account for repetitive influenza infection throughout a lifetime, sequential acute heterologous infections between influenza infections, or heterologous chronic co-infections. By contrast to these mouse models, humans often experience numerous influenza infections, encounter heterologous acute infections between influenza infections, and are infected with at least one chronic virus. In this review, we discuss recent advances in understanding the effects of heterologous infections on the establishment and maintenance of CD8+ T cell immunological memory. Understanding the various factors that affect immune memory can provide insights into the development of more effective vaccines and increase reproducibility of translational studies between animal models and clinical results.

  20. Viruses associated with human and animal influenza - a review ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In this review, the most important viruses associated with human and animal influenza are reported. These include Influenza A,B and C. Influenza viruses are members of the family Orthomyxoviridae. Influenza A virus being the most pathogenic and wide spread with many subtypes has constantly cause epidemics in several ...

  1. Clinical outcomes of seasonal influenza and pandemic influenza A (H1N1 in pediatric inpatients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Budd Alicia

    2010-10-01

    infection control efforts. We believe that this attention should become an annual effort for SI. Strong unified messages from health care providers and the media encouraging influenza vaccination will likely prove very useful in averting some of the morbidity related to influenza for future epidemics.

  2. Influenza as a human disease

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    First page Back Continue Last page Graphics. Influenza as a human disease. Commonly perceived as a mild disease, affects every one, sometimes a couple of times in a year. Globally, seasonal influenza epidemics result in about three to five million yearly cases of severe illness and about 250,000 to 500,000 yearly ...

  3. Chapter 9. Educational process. Recommendations and standard operating procedures for intensive care unit and hospital preparations for an influenza epidemic or mass disaster

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Richards, Guy A.; Sprung, Charles L.; Christian, Michael D.; Camargo, Ruben; Ceraso, Daniel; Azoulay, Elie; Duguet, Alexandre; Guery, Benoit; Reinhart, Konrad; Adini, Bruria; Barlavie, Yaron; Benin-Goren, Odeda; Cohen, Robert; Klein, Motti; Leoniv, Yuval; Margalit, Gila; Rubinovitch, Bina; Sonnenblick, Moshe; Steinberg, Avraham; Weissman, Charles; Wolff, Donna; Kesecioglu, Jozef; de Jong, Menno; Moreno, Rui; An, Youzhong; Du, Bin; Joynt, Gavin M.; Colvin, John; Loo, Shi; Richards, Guy; Artigas, Antonio; Pugin, Jerome; Amundson, Dennis; Devereaux, Asha; Beigel, John; Danis, Marion; Farmer, Chris; Hick, John L.; Maki, Dennis; Masur, Henry; Rubinson, Lewis; Sandrock, Christian; Talmor, Daniel; Truog, Robert; Zimmerman, Janice; Brett, Steve; Montgomery, Hugh; Rhodes, Andrew; Sanderson, Frances; Taylor, Bruce

    2010-01-01

    To provide recommendations and standard operating procedures (SOPs) for intensive care unit (ICU) and hospital preparations for an influenza pandemic or mass disaster with focus on education of all stakeholders, specifically the emergency executive control groups, ICU staff and staff co-opted to

  4. Chapter 5. Essential equipment, pharmaceuticals and supplies. Recommendations and standard operating procedures for intensive care unit and hospital preparations for an influenza epidemic or mass disaster

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sprung, Charles L.; Kesecioglu, Jozef; Christian, Michael D.; Camargo, Ruben; Ceraso, Daniel; Azoulay, Elie; Duguet, Alexandre; Guery, Benoit; Reinhart, Konrad; Adini, Bruria; Barlavie, Yaron; Benin-Goren, Odeda; Cohen, Robert; Klein, Motti; Leoniv, Yuval; Margalit, Gila; Rubinovitch, Bina; Sonnenblick, Moshe; Steinberg, Avraham; Weissman, Charles; Wolff, Donna; de Jong, Menno; Moreno, Rui; An, Youzhong; Du, Bin; Joynt, Gavin M.; Colvin, John; Loo, Shi; Richards, Guy; Artigas, Antonio; Pugin, Jerome; Amundson, Dennis; Devereaux, Asha; Beigel, John; Danis, Marion; Farmer, Chris; Hick, John L.; Maki, Dennis; Masur, Henry; Rubinson, Lewis; Sandrock, Christian; Talmor, Daniel; Truog, Robert; Zimmerman, Janice; Brett, Steve; Montgomery, Hugh; Rhodes, Andrew; Sanderson, Frances; Taylor, Bruce

    2010-01-01

    To provide recommendations and standard operating procedures for intensive care unit and hospital preparations for an influenza pandemic or mass disaster with a specific focus on essential equipment, pharmaceuticals and supplies. Based on a literature review and expert opinion, a Delphi process was

  5. Chapter 4. Manpower. Recommendations and standard operating procedures for intensive care unit and hospital preparations for an influenza epidemic or mass disaster

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sandrock, Christian; Christian, Michael D.; Camargo, Ruben; Ceraso, Daniel; Azoulay, Elie; Duguet, Alexandre; Guery, Benoit; Reinhart, Konrad; Adini, Bruria; Barlavie, Yaron; Benin-Goren, Odeda; Cohen, Robert; Klein, Motti; Leoniv, Yuval; Margalit, Gila; Rubinovitch, Bina; Sonnenblick, Moshe; Sprung, Charles L.; Steinberg, Avraham; Weissman, Charles; Wolff, Donna; Kesecioglu, Jozef; de Jong, Menno; Moreno, Rui; An, Youzhong; Du, Bin; Joynt, Gavin M.; Colvin, John; Loo, Shi; Richards, Guy; Artigas, Antonio; Pugin, Jerome; Amundson, Dennis; Devereaux, Asha; Beigel, John; Danis, Marion; Farmer, Chris; Hick, John L.; Maki, Dennis; Masur, Henry; Rubinson, Lewis; Talmor, Daniel; Truog, Robert; Zimmerman, Janice; Brett, Steve; Montgomery, Hugh; Rhodes, Andrew; Sanderson, Frances; Taylor, Bruce

    2010-01-01

    To provide recommendations and standard operating procedures (SOPs) for intensive care unit (ICU) and hospital preparations for an influenza pandemic or mass disaster with a specific focus on manpower. Based on a literature review and expert opinion, a Delphi process was used to define the essential

  6. Chapter 3. Coordination and collaboration with interface units. Recommendations and standard operating procedures for intensive care unit and hospital preparations for an influenza epidemic or mass disaster

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Joynt, Gavin M.; Loo, Shi; Taylor, Bruce L.; Margalit, Gila; Christian, Michael D.; Sandrock, Christian; Danis, Marion; Leoniv, Yuval; Sprung, Charles L.; Camargo, Ruben; Ceraso, Daniel; Azoulay, Elie; Duguet, Alexandre; Guery, Benoit; Reinhart, Konrad; Adini, Bruria; Barlavie, Yaron; Benin-Goren, Odeda; Cohen, Robert; Klein, Motti; Rubinovitch, Bina; Sonnenblick, Moshe; Steinberg, Avraham; Weissman, Charles; Wolff, Donna; Kesecioglu, Jozef; de Jong, Menno; Moreno, Rui; An, Youzhong; Du, Bin; Joyng, Gavin M.; Colvin, John; Richards, Guy; Artigas, Antonio; Pugin, Jerome; Amundson, Dennis; Devereaux, Asha; Beigel, John; Farmer, Chris; Hick, John L.; Maki, Dennis; Masur, Henry; Rubinson, Lewis; Talmor, Daniel; Truog, Robert; Zimmerman, Janice; Brett, Steve; Montgomery, Hugh; Rhodes, Andrew; Sanderson, Frances

    2010-01-01

    To provide recommendations and standard operating procedures (SOPs) for intensive care unit (ICU) and hospital preparations for an influenza pandemic or mass disaster with a specific focus on enhancing coordination and collaboration between the ICU and other key stakeholders. Based on a literature

  7. Chapter 7. Critical care triage. Recommendations and standard operating procedures for intensive care unit and hospital preparations for an influenza epidemic or mass disaster

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Christian, Michael D.; Joynt, Gavin M.; Hick, John L.; Colvin, John; Danis, Marion; Sprung, Charles L.; Christian, Micahel D.; Camargo, Ruben; Ceraso, Daniel; Azoulay, Elie; Duguet, Alexandre; Guery, Benoit; Reinhart, Konrad; Adini, Bruria; Barlavie, Yaron; Benin-Goren, Odeda; Cohen, Robert; Klein, Motti; Leoniv, Yuval; Margalit, Gila; Rubinovitch, Bina; Sonnenblick, Moshe; Steinberg, Avraham; Weissman, Charles; Wolff, Donna; Kesecioglu, Jozef; de Jong, Menno; Moreno, Rui; An, Youzhong; Du, Bin; Loo, Shi; Richards, Guy; Artigas, Antonio; Pugin, Jerome; Amundson, Dennis; Devereaux, Asha; Beigel, John; Farmer, Chris; Maki, Dennis; Masur, Henry; Rubinson, Lewis; Sandrock, Christian; Talmor, Daniel; Truog, Robert; Zimmerman, Janice; Brett, Steve; Montgomery, Hugh; Rhodes, Andrew; Sanderson, Frances; Taylor, Bruce

    2010-01-01

    To provide recommendations and standard operating procedures for intensive care unit (ICU) and hospital preparations for an influenza pandemic or mass disaster with a specific focus on critical care triage. Based on a literature review and expert opinion, a Delphi process was used to define the

  8. Performance of clinical signs in poultry for the detection of outbreaks during the avian influenza A (H7N7) epidemic in the Netherlands in 2003

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Elbers, A.R.W.; Koch, G.; Bouma, A.

    2005-01-01

    The aim of this study was to make an inventory of the clinical signs of high-pathogenicity avian influenza (HPAI), to facilitate the development of an operational syndrome-reporting system (SRS) in The Netherlands as an early warning system for HPAI outbreaks. A total of 537 poultry flocks (240

  9. Chapter 8. Medical procedures. Recommendations and standard operating procedures for intensive care unit and hospital preparations for an influenza epidemic or mass disaster

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zimmerman, Janice L.; Sprung, Charles L.; Christian, Michael D.; Camargo, Ruben; Ceraso, Daniel; Azoulay, Elie; Duguet, Alexandre; Guery, Benoit; Reinhart, Konrad; Adini, Bruria; Barlavie, Yaron; Benin-Goren, Odeda; Cohen, Robert; Klein, Motti; Leoniv, Yuval; Margalit, Gila; Rubinovitch, Bina; Sonnenblick, Moshe; Steinberg, Avraham; Weissman, Charles; Wolff, Donna; Kesecioglu, Jozef; de Jong, Menno; Moreno, Rui; An, Youzhong; Du, Bin; Joynt, Gavin M.; Colvin, John; Loo, Shi; Richards, Guy; Artigas, Antonio; Pugin, Jerome; Amundson, Dennis; Devereaux, Asha; Beigel, John; Danis, Marion; Farmer, Chris; Hick, John L.; Maki, Dennis; Masur, Henry; Rubinson, Lewis; Sandrock, Christian; Talmor, Daniel; Truog, Robert; Zimmerman, Janice; Brett, Steve; Montgomery, Hugh; Rhodes, Andrew; Sanderson, Frances; Taylor, Bruce

    2010-01-01

    To provide recommendations and standard operating procedures for intensive care unit and hospital preparations for an influenza pandemic or mass disaster with a specific focus on ensuring that adequate resources are available and appropriate protocols are developed to safely perform procedures in

  10. Building a Grad Nation: Progress and Challenge in Ending the High School Dropout Epidemic. Annual Update, 2013

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balfanz, Robert; Bridgeland, John M.; Bruce, Mary; Fox, Joanna Hornig

    2013-01-01

    This fourth annual update on America's high school dropout crisis shows that for the first time the nation is on track to meet the goal of a 90 percent high school graduation rate by the Class of 2020--if the pace of improvement from 2006 to 2010 is sustained over the next 10 years. The greatest gains have occurred for the students of color and…

  11. Effectiveness of the influenza a(H1N1)PDM09 vaccine in adults recommended for annual influenza vaccination : A case-control study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gefenaite, Giedre; Tacken, Margot; Bos, Jens; Stirbu-Wagner, Irina; Korevaar, Joke C.; Stolk, Ronald P.; Wolters, Bert; Bijl, Marc; Postma, Maarten J.; Wilschut, Jan; Nichol, Kristin L.; Hak, Eelko

    Background: Because of variability in published A(H1N1)pdm09 influenza vaccine effectiveness estimates, we aimed to assess the effectiveness of MF59-adjuvanted A(H1N1)pdm09 vaccine in a matched case-control study. Objectives: We aimed to assess the effectiveness of MF59- adjuvanted A(H1N1)pdm09

  12. [Influenza surveillance in nine consecutive seasons, 2003-2012: results from National Influenza Reference Laboratory, Istanbul Faculty Of Medicine, Turkey].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akçay Ciblak, Meral; Kanturvardar Tütenyurd, Melis; Asar, Serkan; Tulunoğlu, Merve; Fındıkçı, Nurcihan; Badur, Selim

    2012-10-01

    Influenza is a public health problem that affects 5-20% of the world population annually causing high morbidity and mortality especially in risk groups. In addition to determining prevention and treatment strategies with vaccines and antivirals, surveillance data plays an important role in combat against influenza. Surveillance provides valuable data on characteristics of influenza activity, on types, sub-types, antigenic properties and antiviral resistance profile of circulating viruses in a given region. The first influenza surveillance was initiated as a pilot study in 2003 by now named National Influenza Reference Laboratory, Istanbul Faculty of Medicine. Surveillance was launched at national level by Ministry of Health in 2004 and two National Influenza Laboratories, one in Istanbul and the other in Ankara, have been conducting surveillance in Turkey. Surveillance data obtained for nine consecutive years, 2003-2012, by National Influenza Reference Laboratory in Istanbul Faculty of Medicine have been summarized in this report. During 2003-2012 influenza surveillance seasons, a total of 11.077 nasal swabs collected in viral transport medium were sent to the National Influenza Reference Laboratory, Istanbul for analysis. Immun-capture ELISA followed by MDCK cell culture was used for detection of influenza viruses before 2009 and real-time RT-PCR was used thereafter. Antigenic characterizations were done by hemagglutination inhibition assay with the reactives supplied by World Health Organization. Analysis of the results showed that influenza B viruses have entered the circulation in 2005-2006 seasons, and have contributed to the epidemics at increasing rates every year except in the 2009 pandemic season. Influenza B Victoria and Yamagata lineages were cocirculating for two seasons. For other seasons either lineage was in circulation. Antigenic characterization revealed that circulating B viruses matched the vaccine composition either partially or totally for only

  13. Genetic divergence of influenza A NS1 gene in pandemic 2009 H1N1 isolates with respect to H1N1 and H3N2 isolates from previous seasonal epidemics

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    Campanini Giulia

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The Influenza A pandemic sustained by a new H1N1 variant (H1N1v started in Mexico and the USA at the end of April 2009 spreading worldwide in a few weeks. In this study we investigate the variability of the NS1 gene of the pandemic H1N1v strain with respect to previous seasonal strains circulating in humans and the potential selection of virus variants through isolation in cell culture. Methods During the period April 27th 2009-Jan 15th 2010, 1633 potential 2009 H1N1v cases have been screened at our center using the CDC detection and typing realtime RT-PCR assays. Virus isolation on MDCK cells was systematically performed in 1/10 positive cases. A subset of 51 H1N1v strains isolated in the period May-September 2009 was selected for NS1 gene sequencing. In addition, 15 H1N1 and 47 H3N2 virus isolates from three previous seasonal epidemics (2006-2009 were analyzed in parallel. Results A low variability in the NS1 amino acid (aa sequence among H1N1v isolates was shown (aa identity 99.5%. A slightly higher NS1 variability was observed among H1N1 and H3N2 strains from previous epidemics (aa identity 98.6% and 98.9%, respectively. The H1N1v strains were closely related (aa identity 92.1% to swine reference strain (A/swine/Oklahoma/042169/2008. In contrast, substantial divergence (aa identity 83.4% with respect to human reference strain A/Brevig Mission/1/1918 and previous epidemic strains H1N1 and H3N2 (aa identity 78.9% and 77.6%, respectively was shown. Specific sequence signatures of uncertain significance in the new virus variant were a C-terminus deletion and a T215P substitution. Conclusions The H1N1v NS1 gene was more conserved than that of previous epidemic strains. In addition, a closer genetic identity of H1N1v with the swine than the human reference strains was shown. Hot-spots were shown in the H1N1v NS1 aa sequence whose biologic relevance remains to be investigated.

  14. Pandemic influenza: certain uncertainties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morens, David M.; Taubenberger, Jeffery K.

    2011-01-01

    SUMMARY For at least five centuries, major epidemics and pandemics of influenza have occurred unexpectedly and at irregular intervals. Despite the modern notion that pandemic influenza is a distinct phenomenon obeying such constant (if incompletely understood) rules such as dramatic genetic change, cyclicity, “wave” patterning, virus replacement, and predictable epidemic behavior, much evidence suggests the opposite. Although there is much that we know about pandemic influenza, there appears to be much more that we do not know. Pandemics arise as a result of various genetic mechanisms, have no predictable patterns of mortality among different age groups, and vary greatly in how and when they arise and recur. Some are followed by new pandemics, whereas others fade gradually or abruptly into long-term endemicity. Human influenza pandemics have been caused by viruses that evolved singly or in co-circulation with other pandemic virus descendants and often have involved significant transmission between, or establishment of, viral reservoirs within other animal hosts. In recent decades, pandemic influenza has continued to produce numerous unanticipated events that expose fundamental gaps in scientific knowledge. Influenza pandemics appear to be not a single phenomenon but a heterogeneous collection of viral evolutionary events whose similarities are overshadowed by important differences, the determinants of which remain poorly understood. These uncertainties make it difficult to predict influenza pandemics and, therefore, to adequately plan to prevent them. PMID:21706672

  15. Inter-annual variability of urolithiasis epidemic from semi-arid part of Deccan Volcanic Province, India: climatic and hydrogeochemical perspectives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kale, Sanjay S; Ghole, Vikram Shantaram; Pawar, N J; Jagtap, Deepak V

    2014-01-01

    Semi-arid Karha basin from Deccan Volcanic Province, India was investigated for inter-annual variability of urolithiasis epidemic. The number of reported urolith patient, weather station data and groundwater quality results was used to assess impact of geoenvironment on urolithiasis. Data of 7081 urolith patient were processed for epidemiological study. Gender class, age group, year-wise cases and urolith type were studied in epidemiology. Rainfall, temperature, pan evaporation and sunshine hours were used to correlate urolithiasis. Further, average values of groundwater parameters were correlated with the number of urolith episodes. A total of 52 urolith samples were collected from hospitals and analysed using FTIR technique to identify dominant urolith type in study area. Result shows that male population is more prone, age group of 20-40 is more susceptible and calcium oxalate uroliths are dominant in study area. Year-wise distribution revealed that there is steady increase in urolithiasis with inflation in drought years. In climatic parameters, hot days are significantly correlated with urolithiasis. In groundwater quality, EC, Na and F are convincingly correlated with urolith patients, which concludes the strong relation between geo-environment and urolithiasis.

  16. Characterization of regional influenza seasonality patterns in China and implications for vaccination strategies: spatio-temporal modeling of surveillance data.

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    Hongjie Yu

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available The complexity of influenza seasonal patterns in the inter-tropical zone impedes the establishment of effective routine immunization programs. China is a climatologically and economically diverse country, which has yet to establish a national influenza vaccination program. Here we characterize the diversity of influenza seasonality in China and make recommendations to guide future vaccination programs.We compiled weekly reports of laboratory-confirmed influenza A and B infections from sentinel hospitals in cities representing 30 Chinese provinces, 2005-2011, and data on population demographics, mobility patterns, socio-economic, and climate factors. We applied linear regression models with harmonic terms to estimate influenza seasonal characteristics, including the amplitude of annual and semi-annual periodicities, their ratio, and peak timing. Hierarchical Bayesian modeling and hierarchical clustering were used to identify predictors of influenza seasonal characteristics and define epidemiologically-relevant regions. The annual periodicity of influenza A epidemics increased with latitude (mean amplitude of annual cycle standardized by mean incidence, 140% [95% CI 128%-151%] in the north versus 37% [95% CI 27%-47%] in the south, p0.6 in provinces located within 27.4°N-31.3°N, slope of latitudinal gradient with latitude -0.016 [95% CI -0.025 to -0.008], p<0.001. In contrast, influenza B activity predominated in colder months throughout most of China. Climate factors were the strongest predictors of influenza seasonality, including minimum temperature, hours of sunshine, and maximum rainfall. Our main study limitations include a short surveillance period and sparse influenza sampling in some of the southern provinces.Regional-specific influenza vaccination strategies would be optimal in China; in particular, annual campaigns should be initiated 4-6 months apart in Northern and Southern China. Influenza surveillance should be strengthened in mid

  17. Entre doutores e para os leigos: fragmentos do discurso médico na influenza de 1918 Among doctors and for the lay: fragments of the medical discourse during the 1918 flu epidemic

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    Liane Maria Bertucci-Martins

    2005-04-01

    Full Text Available Notícias vindas da Europa sobre uma nova epidemia, a gripe espanhola ou influenza espanhola, apareceram nos jornais da cidade de São Paulo em junho de 1918. No dia 15 de outubro, o Serviço Sanitário do Estado confirmava os primeiros casos da doença na cidade. Em meio às discussões sobre a natureza da moléstia e às várias propostas terapêuticas que marcaram o período epidêmico, destaco duas indicações para o tratamento dos doentes: as prescrições aprovadas pela Academia Paulista de Medicina e a 'mercurialização'. Buscando ordenar saberes sobre a gripe espanhola e, indiretamente, instruir a população, as apresentações e os debates sobre os tratamentos explicitavam tanto a forma como o discurso médico-científico era elaborado quanto o seu crescente hermetismo para o entendimento popular.News from Europe of a new epidemic, called the Spanish influenza or Spanish flu, began appearing in São Paulo city newspapers in June 1918. On 15 October, the State Sanitation Service confirmed the occurrence of the first cases in the city. From among the discussions on the nature of the disease and the various treatment proposals then brought forward, I highlight two suggested treatments: the recommendations approved by the São Paulo Academy of Medicine, and "mercurialization." In this effort to organize knowledge about the Spanish flu and, indirectly, to instruct the population at large, proposals and debates surrounding forms of treatment demonstrated both how medical-scientific discourse was developed and how it was growing ever more arcane to the general population.

  18. Elevated Annual Runoff Ratios in Pacific Northwest Catchments Impacted by Epidemic Foliage Disease of Douglas-fir

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bladon, K. D.; Bywater-Reyes, S.; LeBoldus, J. M.; Segura, C.; Ritokova, G.; Shaw, D. C.

    2017-12-01

    Catchments in the Western United States are undergoing unprecedented levels of tree die-off and/or reduced vigor due to increased severity of wildfire, drought, insect outbreaks, and disease. In the U.S. Pacific Northwest, Swiss needle cast (SNC) is the most damaging foliar disease of Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii), physically obstructing stomata and preventing CO2 uptake and transpiration. A recent analysis in coastal Oregon indicated a substantial increase in area affected by the disease, from 530.5 km2 in 1996 to 2,387.1 km2 in 2015. Deforestation or reduced tree vigor can have profound impacts on catchment hydrology, in theory, producing increased streamflow due to reduced interception and transpiration. However, these increases have not always been detectable as impacts also depend on factors such as climate and vegetation composition. Moreover, press disturbances, such as insect outbreaks or disease, often do not result in complete removal of understorey or canopy vegetation. We analyzed trends in annual runoff ratios (quotient of discharge divided by precipitation) from 1990-2015 in 12 catchments (183-1,744 km2) in western Oregon. In general, runoff ratios increased by 10-27% in catchments with a total area of SNC >10%, with the most substantial runoff increases in catchments with SNC impacting >25% of the area. Interestingly, the most severely impacted catchment ( 90.5% SNC) showed a decrease in runoff. This is consistent with a potential compensatory response from understory western hemlock (Tsuga heterophylla) trees, a phenomenon observed in the most severely impacted sites. Findings from this study are important for assessing the impacts of biotic forest disturbances on water supply and aquatic ecosystem health.

  19. Segregation of virulent influenza A(H1N1 variants in the lower respiratory tract of critically ill patients during the 2010-2011 seasonal epidemic.

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    Antonio Piralla

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Since its appearance in 2009, the pandemic influenza A(H1N1 virus circulated worldwide causing several severe infections. METHODS: Respiratory samples from patients with 2009 influenza A(H1N1 and acute respiratory distress attending 24 intensive care units (ICUs as well as from patients with lower respiratory tract infections not requiring ICU admission and community upper respiratory tract infections in the Lombardy region (10 million inhabitants of Italy during the 2010-2011 winter-spring season, were analyzed. RESULTS: In patients with severe ILI, the viral load was higher in bronchoalveolar lavage (BAL with respect to nasal swab (NS, (p<0.001 suggesting a higher virus replication in the lower respiratory tract. Four distinct virus clusters (referred to as cluster A to D circulated simultaneously. Most (72.7%, n = 48 of the 66 patients infected with viruses belonging to cluster A had a severe (n = 26 or moderate ILI (n = 22. Amino acid mutations (V26I, I116M, A186T, D187Y, D222G/N, M257I, S263F, I286L/M, and N473D were observed only in patients with severe ILI. D222G/N variants were detected exclusively in BAL samples. CONCLUSIONS: Multiple virus clusters co-circulated during the 2010-2011 winter-spring season. Severe or moderate ILI were associated with specific 2009 influenza A(H1N1 variants, which replicated preferentially in the lower respiratory tract.

  20. Lessons from the epidemiological surveillance program, during the influenza A (H1N1 virus epidemic, in a reference university hospital of Southeastern Brazil Lições aprendidas pelo programa de vigilância epidemiológica, durante a epidemia pelo vírus da influenza A (H1N1, em um hospital universitário na região sudeste do Brasil

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    Maria Luiza Moretti

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: The case definition of influenza-like illness (ILI is a powerful epidemiological tool during influenza epidemics. METHODS: A prospective cohort study was conducted to evaluate the impact of two definitions used as epidemiological tools, in adults and children, during the influenza A H1N1 epidemic. Patients were included if they had upper respiratory samples tested for influenza by real-time reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction during two periods, using the ILI definition (coughing + temperature > 38ºC in period 1, and the definition of severe acute respiratory infection (ARS (coughing + temperature > 38ºC and dyspnoea in period 2. RESULTS: The study included 366 adults and 147 children, covering 243 cases of ILI and 270 cases of ARS. Laboratory confirmed cases of influenza were higher in adults (50% than in children (21.6% ( p INTRODUÇÃO: A definição de síndrome gripal é uma ferramenta epidemiológica importante durante epidemias de influenza. MÉTODOS: Foi conduzido estudo de coorte prospectivo para avaliar o impacto das definições de síndrome gripal (SG e doença respiratória aguda grave (DRAG como ferramenta de vigilância epidemiológica, em adultos e crianças, durante a epidemia de influenza A H1N1. Os pacientes foram incluídos se tivessem coleta de secreção respiratória alta testada por PCR real time para o vírus da influenza. Os dados clínicos e epidemiológicos foram estudados comparando-se dois períodos: período 1: SG (tosse + temperatura > 38ºC, e período 2: DRAG (tosse + temperatura > 38 e dispnéia. RESULTADOS: Foram incluídos 366 adultos e 147 crianças, em um total de 243 casos de SG e 270 DRAG. A confirmação laboratorial de influenza em adultos (50% foi significativamente maior do que em crianças (21,6% (p < 0,0001 e a definição de SG foi mais confirmatória de infecção por influenza (53% do que DRAG (24,4% (p < 0,0001. Adultos referiam mais calafrios e mialgias do que as

  1. Influenza A (H10N7) Virus Causes Respiratory Tract Disease in Harbor Seals and Ferrets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van den Brand, Judith M A; Wohlsein, Peter; Herfst, Sander; Bodewes, Rogier; Pfankuche, Vanessa M; van de Bildt, Marco W G; Seehusen, Frauke; Puff, Christina; Richard, Mathilde; Siebert, Ursula; Lehnert, Kristina; Bestebroer, Theo; Lexmond, Pascal; Fouchier, Ron A M; Prenger-Berninghoff, Ellen; Herbst, Werner; Koopmans, Marion; Osterhaus, Albert D M E; Kuiken, Thijs; Baumgärtner, Wolfgang

    2016-01-01

    Avian influenza viruses sporadically cross the species barrier to mammals, including humans, in which they may cause epidemic disease. Recently such an epidemic occurred due to the emergence of avian influenza virus of the subtype H10N7 (Seal/H10N7) in harbor seals (Phoca vitulina). This epidemic

  2. Chapter 2. Surge capacity and infrastructure considerations for mass critical care. Recommendations and standard operating procedures for intensive care unit and hospital preparations for an influenza epidemic or mass disaster.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hick, John L; Christian, Michael D; Sprung, Charles L

    2010-04-01

    To provide recommendations and standard operating procedures for intensive care unit (ICU) and hospital preparations for a mass disaster or influenza epidemic with a specific focus on surge capacity and infrastructure considerations. Based on a literature review and expert opinion, a Delphi process was used to define the essential topics including surge capacity and infrastructure considerations. Key recommendations include: (1) hospitals should increase their ICU beds to the maximal extent by expanding ICU capacity and expanding ICUs into other areas; (2) hospitals should have appropriate beds and monitors for these expansion areas; hospitals should develop contingency plans at the facility and government (local, state, provincial, national) levels to provide additional ventilators; (3) hospitals should develop a phased staffing plan (nursing and physician) for ICUs that provides sufficient patient care supervision during contingency and crisis situations; (4) hospitals should provide expert input to the emergency management personnel at the hospital both during planning for surge capacity as well as during response; (5) hospitals should assure that adequate infrastructure support is present to support critical care activities; (6) hospitals should prioritize locations for expansion by expanding existing ICUs, using postanesthesia care units and emergency departments to capacity, then step-down units, large procedure suites, telemetry units and finally hospital wards. Judicious planning and adoption of protocols for surge capacity and infrastructure considerations are necessary to optimize outcomes during a pandemic.

  3. Predictive validation of an influenza spread model.

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    Ayaz Hyder

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Modeling plays a critical role in mitigating impacts of seasonal influenza epidemics. Complex simulation models are currently at the forefront of evaluating optimal mitigation strategies at multiple scales and levels of organization. Given their evaluative role, these models remain limited in their ability to predict and forecast future epidemics leading some researchers and public-health practitioners to question their usefulness. The objective of this study is to evaluate the predictive ability of an existing complex simulation model of influenza spread. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We used extensive data on past epidemics to demonstrate the process of predictive validation. This involved generalizing an individual-based model for influenza spread and fitting it to laboratory-confirmed influenza infection data from a single observed epidemic (1998-1999. Next, we used the fitted model and modified two of its parameters based on data on real-world perturbations (vaccination coverage by age group and strain type. Simulating epidemics under these changes allowed us to estimate the deviation/error between the expected epidemic curve under perturbation and observed epidemics taking place from 1999 to 2006. Our model was able to forecast absolute intensity and epidemic peak week several weeks earlier with reasonable reliability and depended on the method of forecasting-static or dynamic. CONCLUSIONS: Good predictive ability of influenza epidemics is critical for implementing mitigation strategies in an effective and timely manner. Through the process of predictive validation applied to a current complex simulation model of influenza spread, we provided users of the model (e.g. public-health officials and policy-makers with quantitative metrics and practical recommendations on mitigating impacts of seasonal influenza epidemics. This methodology may be applied to other models of communicable infectious diseases to test and potentially improve

  4. Predictive Validation of an Influenza Spread Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hyder, Ayaz; Buckeridge, David L.; Leung, Brian

    2013-01-01

    Background Modeling plays a critical role in mitigating impacts of seasonal influenza epidemics. Complex simulation models are currently at the forefront of evaluating optimal mitigation strategies at multiple scales and levels of organization. Given their evaluative role, these models remain limited in their ability to predict and forecast future epidemics leading some researchers and public-health practitioners to question their usefulness. The objective of this study is to evaluate the predictive ability of an existing complex simulation model of influenza spread. Methods and Findings We used extensive data on past epidemics to demonstrate the process of predictive validation. This involved generalizing an individual-based model for influenza spread and fitting it to laboratory-confirmed influenza infection data from a single observed epidemic (1998–1999). Next, we used the fitted model and modified two of its parameters based on data on real-world perturbations (vaccination coverage by age group and strain type). Simulating epidemics under these changes allowed us to estimate the deviation/error between the expected epidemic curve under perturbation and observed epidemics taking place from 1999 to 2006. Our model was able to forecast absolute intensity and epidemic peak week several weeks earlier with reasonable reliability and depended on the method of forecasting-static or dynamic. Conclusions Good predictive ability of influenza epidemics is critical for implementing mitigation strategies in an effective and timely manner. Through the process of predictive validation applied to a current complex simulation model of influenza spread, we provided users of the model (e.g. public-health officials and policy-makers) with quantitative metrics and practical recommendations on mitigating impacts of seasonal influenza epidemics. This methodology may be applied to other models of communicable infectious diseases to test and potentially improve their predictive

  5. Modeling and Statistical Analysis of the Spatio-Temporal Patterns of Seasonal Influenza in Israel

    Science.gov (United States)

    Katriel, Guy; Yaari, Rami; Roll, Uri; Stone, Lewi

    2012-01-01

    Background Seasonal influenza outbreaks are a serious burden for public health worldwide and cause morbidity to millions of people each year. In the temperate zone influenza is predominantly seasonal, with epidemics occurring every winter, but the severity of the outbreaks vary substantially between years. In this study we used a highly detailed database, which gave us both temporal and spatial information of influenza dynamics in Israel in the years 1998–2009. We use a discrete-time stochastic epidemic SIR model to find estimates and credible confidence intervals of key epidemiological parameters. Findings Despite the biological complexity of the disease we found that a simple SIR-type model can be fitted successfully to the seasonal influenza data. This was true at both the national levels and at the scale of single cities.The effective reproductive number Re varies between the different years both nationally and among Israeli cities. However, we did not find differences in Re between different Israeli cities within a year. R e was positively correlated to the strength of the spatial synchronization in Israel. For those years in which the disease was more “infectious”, then outbreaks in different cities tended to occur with smaller time lags. Our spatial analysis demonstrates that both the timing and the strength of the outbreak within a year are highly synchronized between the Israeli cities. We extend the spatial analysis to demonstrate the existence of high synchrony between Israeli and French influenza outbreaks. Conclusions The data analysis combined with mathematical modeling provided a better understanding of the spatio-temporal and synchronization dynamics of influenza in Israel and between Israel and France. Altogether, we show that despite major differences in demography and weather conditions intra-annual influenza epidemics are tightly synchronized in both their timing and magnitude, while they may vary greatly between years. The predominance of

  6. Percepción de competencias en epidemiología en México y Colombia durante la epidemia de influenza A (H1N1 entre estudiantes de salud pública Perception of epidemiological competencies by public health students in Mexico and Colombia during the influenza A (H1N1 epidemic

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    Alvaro J Idrovo

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available OBJETIVO: Conocer la percepción que los estudiantes de salud pública en México y en Colombia tuvieron sobre el manejo de la epidemia de influenza A (H1N1, como una forma para indagar qué contenidos curriculares pueden ser mejorados en la formación en epidemiología. MÉTODOS: Encuesta durante la epidemia, entre junio y agosto de 2009, a estudiantes de posgrado. Se evaluaron las 30 competencias epidemiológicas del Council of State and Territorial Epidemiologists para "epidemiólogos intermedios". Se describieron los resultados estratificando por covariables, y se identificaron las competencias con menor desarrollo mediante análisis factorial exploratorio. RESULTADOS: Participaron 154 estudiantes, de los cuales 55,8% estaban en México. Se observaron diferencias importantes en el perfil de los estudiantes de ambos países, lo cual explica parcialmente la percepción de respuesta a la epidemia. En el análisis factorial el primer factor, que explica 21,5% de la varianza, presentó menores puntajes y se asoció con competencias relacionadas con el vínculo entre el personal sanitario y la comunidad, donde resultan relevantes conocimientos de ciencias sociales y habilidades de comunicación. CONCLUSIONES: Los estudiantes percibieron que la respuesta frente a la epidemia podría haber sido mejor. Se sugiere incorporar en la educación de los recursos humanos en salud pública temáticas sobre cultura y sus efectos sobre conductas y pensamientos, el reconocimiento de los prejuicios de los expertos, la comunicación efectiva con las comunidades, y la habilidad para adaptarse ante nuevas situaciones. El "experimento natural" de la epidemia facilitó la identificación de áreas de oportunidad para mejorar la enseñanza de la epidemiología ante contingencias sanitarias.OBJECTIVE: Learn about the perception of public health students in Mexico and Colombia regarding the management of the influenza A (H1N1 epidemic to determine which curriculum

  7. [Summary of Guangdong provincial seminar on avian influenza and influenza].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Shou-yi; Chen, Qing; Hu, Gui-fang

    2005-12-01

    On 8th November 2005, an academic seminar on avian influenza and influenza in Guangdong Province was held by Guangdong Society of Tropical Medicine and the Epidemiology Committee of the Guangdong Preventive Medicine Society in Southern Medical University, addressing the current problems in epidemics of avian influenza. The specialists attending the conference arrived at the common consideration that at present, the avian influenza virus H5N1 has not the capacity to trigger an pandemic in human population, but scattered cases had been reported to increase the suspicions of H5N1 virus transmission between humans. Due attention should be paid to the tendency of expansion of the host range and epidemic area, and the possibility of disastrous influenza pandemic among human populations persists, for which rational consideration is called for, and the role of specialists should be fully recognized who are endeavoring to examine the possible scale of influenza occurrence and devise strategy to deal with the epidemic in Guangdong province according to the practical situation in China. Increased funds and investment in scientific research on avian influenza is urged for influenza prediction and surveillance, rapid and early diagnostic assays, understanding of virus variation, mechanism of H5N1 virus adaptation to human hosts, effective medicines and vaccines for prevention and therapy of avian influenza. Laboratory bio-safety control should be enforced to prevent infections originated from laboratories. The specialists appeal that the media report the news objectively and issue the public warnings against avian influenza after consulting specialists, so as to avoid unnecessary social panic.

  8. Bestrijding van aviaire influenza onder pluimvee: vaccinatie als aanvullende mogelijkheid

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Aarle, P van; Breytenbach, J; Schueller, S

    2006-01-01

    Since mid-December 2003, highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) has caused an epidemic in the Asian poultry sector and avian influenza cases have been reported in Europe, the Middle East and Africa. Human fatalities catapulted avian influenza into the public arena with fears of a possible global

  9. Cooperativity between CD8+ T cells, non-neutralizing antibodies, and alveolar macrophages is important for heterosubtypic influenza virus immunity.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brian J Laidlaw

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Seasonal epidemics of influenza virus result in ∼36,000 deaths annually in the United States. Current vaccines against influenza virus elicit an antibody response specific for the envelope glycoproteins. However, high mutation rates result in the emergence of new viral serotypes, which elude neutralization by preexisting antibodies. T lymphocytes have been reported to be capable of mediating heterosubtypic protection through recognition of internal, more conserved, influenza virus proteins. Here, we demonstrate using a recombinant influenza virus expressing the LCMV GP33-41 epitope that influenza virus-specific CD8+ T cells and virus-specific non-neutralizing antibodies each are relatively ineffective at conferring heterosubtypic protective immunity alone. However, when combined virus-specific CD8 T cells and non-neutralizing antibodies cooperatively elicit robust protective immunity. This synergistic improvement in protective immunity is dependent, at least in part, on alveolar macrophages and/or other lung phagocytes. Overall, our studies suggest that an influenza vaccine capable of eliciting both CD8+ T cells and antibodies specific for highly conserved influenza proteins may be able to provide heterosubtypic protection in humans, and act as the basis for a potential "universal" vaccine.

  10. Influenza outbreak during Sydney World Youth Day 2008: the utility of laboratory testing and case definitions on mass gathering outbreak containment.

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    Sebastiaan J van Hal

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Influenza causes annual epidemics and often results in extensive outbreaks in closed communities. To minimize transmission, a range of interventions have been suggested. For these to be effective, an accurate and timely diagnosis of influenza is required. This is confirmed by a positive laboratory test result in an individual whose symptoms are consistent with a predefined clinical case definition. However, the utility of these clinical case definitions and laboratory testing in mass gathering outbreaks remains unknown. METHODS AND RESULTS: An influenza outbreak was identified during World Youth Day 2008 in Sydney. From the data collected on pilgrims presenting to a single clinic, a Markov model was developed and validated against the actual epidemic curve. Simulations were performed to examine the utility of different clinical case definitions and laboratory testing strategies for containment of influenza outbreaks. Clinical case definitions were found to have the greatest impact on averting further cases with no added benefit when combined with any laboratory test. Although nucleic acid testing (NAT demonstrated higher utility than indirect immunofluorescence antigen or on-site point-of-care testing, this effect was lost when laboratory NAT turnaround times was included. The main benefit of laboratory confirmation was limited to identification of true influenza cases amenable to interventions such as antiviral therapy. CONCLUSIONS: Continuous re-evaluation of case definitions and laboratory testing strategies are essential for effective management of influenza outbreaks during mass gatherings.

  11. Seasonal influenza activity for 2005-2006 season seems to be ending in most European countries.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Paget, W.J.; Meijer, A.; Falcao, J.M.; Jong, J.C. de; Kyncl, J.; Meerhoff, T.J.; Meuwissen, L.E.; Nicoll, A.; Velden, J. van der

    2006-01-01

    During the 2005-2006 season, seasonal influenza epidemics started late in countries across Europe. Clinical influenza activity has only reached moderate levels and has mainly been associated with influenza B viruses. There has been co-circulation of influenza A and B viruses in many countries, and

  12. Design of the Dutch prevention of influenza, surveillance and management (PRISMA) study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hak, E; van Loon, S; Buskens, E; van Essen, G A; de Bakker, D; Tacken, M A J B; van Hout, B A; Grobbee, D E; Verheij, Th J M

    2003-01-01

    Rationale and design of a study on the cost-effectiveness of the Dutch influenza vaccination campaign are described. During two influenza epidemics, about 75,000 primary care patients recommended for influenza vaccination are included. Cases have fatal or non-fatal influenza, pneumonia, otitis

  13. Performance of clinical signs in poultry for the detection of outbreaks during the avian influenza A (H7N7) epidemic in The Netherlands in 2003.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elbers, Armin R W; Koch, Guus; Bouma, Annemarie

    2005-06-01

    The aim of this study was to make an inventory of the clinical signs of high-pathogenicity avian influenza (HPAI), to facilitate the development of an operational syndrome-reporting system (SRS) in The Netherlands as an early warning system for HPAI outbreaks. A total of 537 poultry flocks (240 infected and 297 non-infected) with a clinical suspicion of an infection with HPAI virus were investigated with respect to the clinical signs observed. Standardized reports were analysed with respect to observed clinical signs in the flocks. Various poultry types were distinguished. In infected commercial flocks with egg-producing chickens, the presence of increased mortality, apathy, coughing, reduction in normal vocalization, or pale eggs appeared to be overall the most sensitive indicators to detect a HPAI outbreak, matching a sensitivity of 99% with a specificity of 23%. In infected turkey flocks, the presence of apathy, decreased growth performance, reduction of normal vocalization, swollen sinuses, yawning, huddling, mucosal production from the beak, or lying down with an extended neck appeared to be overall the most sensitive indicators to detect a HPAI outbreak, matching a sensitivity of 100% with a specificity of 79%. In infected backyard/hobby flocks, increased mortality or swollen head appeared to be overall the most sensitive indicators of a HPAI outbreak, matching a sensitivity of 100% with a specificity of 26%. These results indicate that there is a solid basis for the choice of using increased mortality in the operational SRS in The Netherlands as an early warning system for HPAI outbreaks. The presence of apathy, specifically for turkeys, should be added to the SRS as an indicator.

  14. Investigation of influenza in migrating birds, the primordial reservoir and transmitters of influenza in Brazil Investigação de influenza em aves migratórias, principal reservatório e transporte de influenza no Brasil

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    Adélia Hiroko Nagamori Kawamoto

    2005-03-01

    Full Text Available Birds are the most important reservoirs of the influenza virus. Its maintenance in its natural hosts, including man, allows the influenza virus to reassorts its strains. The recent report of an avian influenza A (H5N1 virus in humans, was in a child with fatal respiratory illness in China, 1997. The current study was conducted to elucidate the transportation of the influenza by birds that migrate, annually, through the both Northern and Southern hemispheres, with special attention paid to the Vireo olivaceus [Juruviara(BR or Red-eyed vireo(USA] species, which travels from the USA to Brazil, and vice versa, and the Elaenia mesoleuca [Tuque(BR or (USA] species that flies over the entire Southern Hemisphere. There are two species of birds, which breed and migrate in São Paulo State, Brazil, and which were demonstrated to carry Influenza virus, were selected. The viral particles isolated were observed by electron microscopy. The influenza virus was detected by the House Duplex/PCR and Gloria molecular biology tests. The results demonstrated that the Elaenia mesoleuca and Vireo olivaceus bird species are carrying the Influenza virus whilst crossing both the Northern and Southern hemispheres. To understand the role that these migrating birds may play in epidemic influenza, in Brazil, characterization of avian influenza subtypes will be done.Os mais importantes reservatórios do vírus influenza são os pássaros. A manutenção do vírus influenza em hospedeiros naturais, inclusive o homem, permite que esse vírus realize rearranjos entre as suas cepas. O recente relato de uma cepa influenza aviária A(H5N1, em humanos, se deu em uma criança com doença respiratória fatal, na China em 1977. O presente estudo foi conduzido para elucidar o transporte da influenza por pássaros que migram, anualmente, através de ambos hemisférios o do Norte e do Sul, com especial atenção voltada à espécies Vireo olivaceo [Juruviara(BR e Red-eyed vireo(USA] que

  15. Effective lethal mutagenesis of influenza virus by three nucleoside analogs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pauly, Matthew D; Lauring, Adam S

    2015-04-01

    Lethal mutagenesis is a broad-spectrum antiviral strategy that exploits the high mutation rate and low mutational tolerance of many RNA viruses. This approach uses mutagenic drugs to increase viral mutation rates and burden viral populations with mutations that reduce the number of infectious progeny. We investigated the effectiveness of lethal mutagenesis as a strategy against influenza virus using three nucleoside analogs, ribavirin, 5-azacytidine, and 5-fluorouracil. All three drugs were active against a panel of seasonal H3N2 and laboratory-adapted H1N1 strains. We found that each drug increased the frequency of mutations in influenza virus populations and decreased the virus' specific infectivity, indicating a mutagenic mode of action. We were able to drive viral populations to extinction by passaging influenza virus in the presence of each drug, indicating that complete lethal mutagenesis of influenza virus populations can be achieved when a sufficient mutational burden is applied. Population-wide resistance to these mutagenic agents did not arise after serial passage of influenza virus populations in sublethal concentrations of drug. Sequencing of these drug-passaged viral populations revealed genome-wide accumulation of mutations at low frequency. The replicative capacity of drug-passaged populations was reduced at higher multiplicities of infection, suggesting the presence of defective interfering particles and a possible barrier to the evolution of resistance. Together, our data suggest that lethal mutagenesis may be a particularly effective therapeutic approach with a high genetic barrier to resistance for influenza virus. Influenza virus is an RNA virus that causes significant morbidity and mortality during annual epidemics. Novel therapies for RNA viruses are needed due to the ease with which these viruses evolve resistance to existing therapeutics. Lethal mutagenesis is a broad-spectrum strategy that exploits the high mutation rate and the low

  16. Epidemic typhus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bechah, Yassina; Capo, Christian; Mege, Jean-Louis; Raoult, Didier

    2008-07-01

    Epidemic typhus is transmitted to human beings by the body louse Pediculus humanus corporis. The disease is still considered a major threat by public-health authorities, despite the efficacy of antibiotics, because poor sanitary conditions are conducive to louse proliferation. Until recently, Rickettsia prowazekii, the causal agent, was thought to be confined to human beings and their body lice. Since 1975, R prowazekii infection in human beings has been related to contact with the flying squirrel Glaucomys volans in the USA. Moreover, Brill-Zinsser disease, a relapsed form of epidemic typhus that appears as sporadic cases many years after the initial infection, is unrelated to louse infestation. Stress or a waning immune system are likely to reactivate this earlier persistent infection, which could be the source of new epidemics when conditions facilitate louse infestation. Finally, R prowazekii is a potential category B bioterrorism agent, because it is stable in dried louse faeces and can be transmitted through aerosols. An increased understanding of the pathogenesis of epidemic typhus may be useful for protection against this bacterial threat.

  17. Epidemia de influenza A(H1N1 en la Argentina: Experiencia del Hospital Nacional Profesor Alejandro Posadas Influenza A(H1N1 epidemic in Argentina: Experience in a National General Hospital (Hospital Nacional Profesor Alejandro Posadas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available Se describe la preparación y la atención médica durante la epidemia de influenza A(H1N1 (junio 2009 en un hospital general de agudos, público, de alta complejidad; con diagnóstico de laboratorio, internación general y cuidados intensivos (UCI. Se elaboró un plan para aumentar la capacidad asistencial, reasignar recursos y garantizar la bioseguridad. La consulta fue 7.1 ± 3.8 veces mayor que en 2006-2008. La detección de casos de A(H1N1 fue confirmada por PCR-RT en 186/486 (38.3% pacientes internados y en 56/176 (31.8% ambulatorios. Internados: mediana de edad 20 años; 75% menores de 45 y 32.3% menores de 15. Mortalidad global: 6.8%; 9.1% en los positivos. Adultos: recepción en un área de atención ambulatoria, internación (aislamiento y ventilación mecánica. Sala general: ingresaron 110 pacientes (5 veces más que 1999-2006 con saturación de oxígeno The preparation and medical care during the influenza A(H1N1 outbreak (June 2009 in a high complexity level, public, general hospital with laboratory diagnosis, general and intensive care (ICU hospitalization is described. A plan was designed to increase the hospital's surge capacity, reallocate resources and guarantee bio-safety. The number of consultations was 7.1 ± 3.8 times higher than during June 2006-2008. Detection of A(H1N1 cases were confirmed by PCR-RT in 186/486 (38.3% in-patients and 56/176 (31.8% out-patients. Median age among in-patients was 20 years; 75% < 45 and 32.3% < 15. Global mortality: 6.8%; 9.1% among confirmed cases. Adults were directed to a reception area of out-patient care, hospitalization (isolation and mechanical ventilation. General ward: 110 patients with oxygen saturation < 96% and/or risk factors (65.5% had asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, obesity, pregnancy or other were admitted (5 times more than in 1999-2006. Chest X-ray showed lung infiltrates and/or lung consolidation in 97.3%. Severe hypoxemia: 43.5%. There were no significant

  18. Salud pública global: un desafío a los límites de la salud internacional a propósito de la epidemia de influenza humana A Global public health: international health is tested to its limits by the human influenza A epidemic

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    Álvaro Franco-Giraldo

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available This article comes from the intense international pressure that follows a near-catastrophy, such as the human influenza A H1N1 epidemic, and the limited resources for confronting such events. The analysis covers prevailing 20th century trends in the international public health arena and the change-induced challenges brought on by globalization, the transition set in motion by what has been deemed the "new" international public health and an ever-increasing focus on global health, in the context of an international scenario of shifting risks and opportunities and a growing number of multinational players. Global public health is defined as a public right, based on a new appreciation of the public, a new paradigm centered on human rights, and altruistic philosophy, politics, and ethics that undergird the changes in international public health on at least three fronts: redefining its theoretical foundation, improving world health, and renewing the international public health system, all of which is the byproduct of a new form of governance. A new world health system, directed by new global public institutions, would aim to make public health a global public right and face a variety of staggering challenges, such as working on public policy management on a global scale, renewing and democratizing the current global governing structure, and conquering the limits and weaknesses witnessed by international health.

  19. 76 FR 78658 - Webinar Overview of the National Vaccine Advisory Committee Healthcare Personnel Influenza...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-12-19

    ... Committee Healthcare Personnel Influenza Vaccination Subgroup's Draft Report and Draft Recommendations for Achieving the Healthy People 2020 Annual Coverage Goals for Influenza Vaccination in Healthcare Personnel... Influenza Vaccination Subgroup (HCPIVS), will host an informational webinar to introduce the committee's...

  20. Secondary Bacterial Infections Associated with Influenza Pandemics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morris, Denise E.; Cleary, David W.; Clarke, Stuart C.

    2017-01-01

    Lower and upper respiratory infections are the fourth highest cause of global mortality (Lozano et al., 2012). Epidemic and pandemic outbreaks of respiratory infection are a major medical concern, often causing considerable disease and a high death toll, typically over a relatively short period of time. Influenza is a major cause of epidemic and pandemic infection. Bacterial co/secondary infection further increases morbidity and mortality of influenza infection, with Streptococcus pneumoniae, Haemophilus influenzae, and Staphylococcus aureus reported as the most common causes. With increased antibiotic resistance and vaccine evasion it is important to monitor the epidemiology of pathogens in circulation to inform clinical treatment and development, particularly in the setting of an influenza epidemic/pandemic. PMID:28690590

  1. Secondary Bacterial Infections Associated with Influenza Pandemics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Denise E. Morris

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Lower and upper respiratory infections are the fourth highest cause of global mortality (Lozano et al., 2012. Epidemic and pandemic outbreaks of respiratory infection are a major medical concern, often causing considerable disease and a high death toll, typically over a relatively short period of time. Influenza is a major cause of epidemic and pandemic infection. Bacterial co/secondary infection further increases morbidity and mortality of influenza infection, with Streptococcus pneumoniae, Haemophilus influenzae, and Staphylococcus aureus reported as the most common causes. With increased antibiotic resistance and vaccine evasion it is important to monitor the epidemiology of pathogens in circulation to inform clinical treatment and development, particularly in the setting of an influenza epidemic/pandemic.

  2. The influence of school holiday timing on epidemic impact.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eames, K T D

    2014-09-01

    The impact of reactive school closure on an epidemic is uncertain, since it is not clear how an unplanned closure will affect social mixing patterns. The effect of school holidays on social mixing patterns is better understood. Here, we use mathematical models to explore the influence of the timing of school holidays on the final size and peak incidence of an influenza-like epidemic. A well-timed holiday can reduce the impact of an epidemic, in particular substantially reducing an epidemic's peak. Final size and peak incidence cannot both be minimized: a later holiday is optimal for minimizing the final size, while an earlier holiday minimizes peak incidence. Using social mixing data from the UK, we estimated that, had the 2009 influenza epidemic not been interrupted by the school summer holidays, the final size would have been about 20% larger and the peak about 170% higher.

  3. Influenza vaccine coverage, influenza-associated morbidity and all-cause mortality in Catalonia (Spain).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muñoz, M Pilar; Soldevila, Núria; Martínez, Anna; Carmona, Glòria; Batalla, Joan; Acosta, Lesly M; Domínguez, Angela

    2011-07-12

    The objective of this work was to study the behaviour of influenza with respect to morbidity and all-cause mortality in Catalonia, and their association with influenza vaccination coverage. The study was carried out over 13 influenza seasons, from epidemiological week 40 of 1994 to week 20 of 2007, and included confirmed cases of influenza and all-cause mortality. Two generalized linear models were fitted: influenza-associated morbidity was modelled by Poisson regression and all-cause mortality by negative binomial regression. The seasonal component was modelled with the periodic function formed by the sum of the sinus and cosines. Expected influenza mortality during periods of influenza virus circulation was estimated by Poisson regression and its confidence intervals using the Bootstrap approach. Vaccination coverage was associated with a reduction in influenza-associated morbidity (pcase of influenza-associated morbidity, an increase of 5% in vaccination coverage represented a reduction of 3% in the incidence rate of influenza. There was a positive association between influenza-associated morbidity and all-cause mortality. Excess mortality attributable to influenza epidemics was estimated as 34.4 (95% CI: 28.4-40.8) weekly deaths. In conclusion, all-cause mortality is a good indicator of influenza surveillance and vaccination coverage is associated with a reduction in influenza-associated morbidity but not with all-cause mortality. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Modeling Influenza Transmission Using Environmental Parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soebiyanto, Radina P.; Kiang, Richard K.

    2010-01-01

    Influenza is an acute viral respiratory disease that has significant mortality, morbidity and economic burden worldwide. It infects approximately 5-15% of the world population, and causes 250,000 500,000 deaths each year. The role of environments on influenza is often drawn upon the latitude variability of influenza seasonality pattern. In regions with temperate climate, influenza epidemics exhibit clear seasonal pattern that peak during winter months, but it is not as evident in the tropics. Toward this end, we developed mathematical model and forecasting capabilities for influenza in regions characterized by warm climate Hong Kong (China) and Maricopa County (Arizona, USA). The best model for Hong Kong uses Land Surface Temperature (LST), precipitation and relative humidity as its covariates. Whereas for Maricopa County, we found that weekly influenza cases can be best modelled using mean air temperature as its covariates. Our forecasts can further guides public health organizations in targeting influenza prevention and control measures such as vaccination.

  5. Influenza pandemic planning guide

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2006-11-15

    An influenza pandemic will have serious economic impacts on the natural gas industry due to absenteeism as well as downstream effects due to supply disruption.This guide was prepared to assist gas distribution companies in planning for an influenza epidemic. The guide aimed to minimize the risks that an influenza pandemic might pose to the health and safety of employees and the continuity of business operations. The guide discussed 5 critical aspects of emergency planning: (1) prevention and threat mitigation; (2) preparedness; (3) response; (4) business continuity; and (5) communication. The legal context of the emergency plans were discussed. The plans were also discussed to other essential infrastructure emergency response plans. Recommendations were presented for infection control, decentralization and access restriction. Outlines for pandemic response planning teams and training and exercise programs were provided. Issues related to alert, mobilization, and response procedures were also discussed. 10 refs., 3 tabs., 1 fig.

  6. Influenza Photos

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Polio Whooping cough Influenza (flu) Rabies Yellow fever Influenza Photos Photographs accompanied by text that reads "Courtesy ... of these photos are quite graphic. Shows how influenza germs spread through the air when someone coughs ...

  7. Molecular characterization and phylogenetic analysis of human influenza A viruses isolated in Iran during the 2014-2015 season.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moasser, Elham; Behzadian, Farida; Moattari, Afagh; Fotouhi, Fatemeh; Rahimi, Amir; Zaraket, Hassan; Hosseini, Seyed Younes

    2017-07-01

    Influenza A viruses are an important cause of severe infectious diseases in humans and are characterized by their fast evolution rate. Global monitoring of these viruses is critical to detect newly emerging variants during annual epidemics. Here, we sought to genetically characterize influenza A/H1N1pdm09 and A/H3N2 viruses collected in Iran during the 2014-2015 influenza season. A total of 200 nasopharyngeal swabs were collected from patients with influenza-like illnesses. Swabs were screened for influenza A and B using real-time PCR. Furthermore, positive specimens with high virus load underwent virus isolation and genetic characterization of their hemagglutinin (HA) and M genes. Of the 200 specimens, 80 were influenza A-positive, including 44 A/H1N1pdm09 and 36 A/H3N2, while 18 were influenza B-positive. Phylogenetic analysis of the HA genes of the A/H1N1pdm09 viruses revealed the circulation of clade 6C, characterized by amino acid substitutions D97N, V234I and K283E. Analysis of the A/H3N2 viruses showed a genetic drift from the vaccine strain A/Texas/50/2012 with 5 mutations (T128A, R142G, N145S, P198S and S219F) belonging to the antigenic sites A, B, and D of the HA protein. The A/H3N2 viruses belonged to phylogenetic clades 3C.2 and 3C.3. The M gene trees of the Iranian A/H1N1pdm09 and A/H3N2 mirrored the clustering patterns of their corresponding HA trees. Our results reveal co-circulation of several influenza A virus strains in Iran during the 2014-2015 influenza season.

  8. Virulence determinants of pandemic influenza viruses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tscherne, Donna M.; García-Sastre, Adolfo

    2011-01-01

    Influenza A viruses cause recurrent, seasonal epidemics and occasional global pandemics with devastating levels of morbidity and mortality. The ability of influenza A viruses to adapt to various hosts and undergo reassortment events ensures constant generation of new strains with unpredictable degrees of pathogenicity, transmissibility, and pandemic potential. Currently, the combination of factors that drives the emergence of pandemic influenza is unclear, making it impossible to foresee the details of a future outbreak. Identification and characterization of influenza A virus virulence determinants may provide insight into genotypic signatures of pathogenicity as well as a more thorough understanding of the factors that give rise to pandemics. PMID:21206092

  9. Influenza virus infection among pediatric patients reporting diarrhea and influenza-like illness

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Uyeki Timothy M

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Influenza is a major cause of morbidity and hospitalization among children. While less often reported in adults, gastrointestinal symptoms have been associated with influenza in children, including abdominal pain, nausea, vomiting, and diarrhea. Methods From September 2005 and April 2008, pediatric patients in Indonesia presenting with concurrent diarrhea and influenza-like illness were enrolled in a study to determine the frequency of influenza virus infection in young patients presenting with symptoms less commonly associated with an upper respiratory tract infection (URTI. Stool specimens and upper respiratory swabs were assayed for the presence of influenza virus. Results Seasonal influenza A or influenza B viral RNA was detected in 85 (11.6% upper respiratory specimens and 21 (2.9% of stool specimens. Viable influenza B virus was isolated from the stool specimen of one case. During the time of this study, human infections with highly pathogenic avian influenza A (H5N1 virus were common in the survey area. However, among 733 enrolled subjects, none had evidence of H5N1 virus infection. Conclusions The detection of influenza viral RNA and viable influenza virus from stool suggests that influenza virus may be localized in the gastrointestinal tract of children, may be associated with pediatric diarrhea and may serve as a potential mode of transmission during seasonal and epidemic influenza outbreaks.

  10. On the epidemiology of influenza

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Scragg Robert

    2008-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract The epidemiology of influenza swarms with incongruities, incongruities exhaustively detailed by the late British epidemiologist, Edgar Hope-Simpson. He was the first to propose a parsimonious theory explaining why influenza is, as Gregg said, "seemingly unmindful of traditional infectious disease behavioral patterns." Recent discoveries indicate vitamin D upregulates the endogenous antibiotics of innate immunity and suggest that the incongruities explored by Hope-Simpson may be secondary to the epidemiology of vitamin D deficiency. We identify – and attempt to explain – nine influenza conundrums: (1 Why is influenza both seasonal and ubiquitous and where is the virus between epidemics? (2 Why are the epidemics so explosive? (3 Why do they end so abruptly? (4 What explains the frequent coincidental timing of epidemics in countries of similar latitude? (5 Why is the serial interval obscure? (6 Why is the secondary attack rate so low? (7 Why did epidemics in previous ages spread so rapidly, despite the lack of modern transport? (8 Why does experimental inoculation of seronegative humans fail to cause illness in all the volunteers? (9 Why has influenza mortality of the aged not declined as their vaccination rates increased? We review recent discoveries about vitamin D's effects on innate immunity, human studies attempting sick-to-well transmission, naturalistic reports of human transmission, studies of serial interval, secondary attack rates, and relevant animal studies. We hypothesize that two factors explain the nine conundrums: vitamin D's seasonal and population effects on innate immunity, and the presence of a subpopulation of "good infectors." If true, our revision of Edgar Hope-Simpson's theory has profound implications for the prevention of influenza.

  11. Epidemics: Lessons from the past and current patterns of response

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, Paul

    2008-09-01

    Hippocrates gave the term 'epidemic' its medical meaning. From antiquity to modern times, the meaning of the word epidemic has continued to evolve. Over the centuries, researchers have reached an understanding of the varying aspects of epidemics and have tried to combat them. The role played by travel, trade, and human exchanges in the propagation of epidemic infectious diseases has been understood. In 1948, the World Health Organization was created and given the task of advancing ways of combating epidemics. An early warning system to combat epidemics has been implemented by the WHO. The Global Outbreak Alert and Response Network (GOARN) is collaboration between existing institutions and networks that pool their human and technical resources to fight outbreaks. Avian influenza constitutes currently the most deadly epidemic threat, with fears that it could rapidly reach pandemic proportions and put several thousands of lives in jeopardy. Thanks to the WHO's support, most of the world's countries have mobilised and implemented an 'Action Plan for Pandemic Influenza'. As a result, most outbreaks of the H5N1 avian flu virus have so far been speedily contained. Cases of dengue virus introduction in countries possessing every circumstance required for its epidemic spread provide another example pertinent to the prevention of epidemics caused by vector-borne pathogens.

  12. Swine-origin influenza A (H3N2) virus infection in two children--Indiana and Pennsylvania, July-August 2011.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-09-09

    Influenza A viruses are endemic in many animal species, including humans, swine, and wild birds, and sporadic cases of transmission of influenza A viruses between humans and animals do occur, including human infections with avian-origin influenza A viruses (i.e., H5N1 and H7N7) and swine-origin influenza A viruses (i.e., H1N1, H1N2, and H3N2). Genetic analysis can distinguish animal origin influenza viruses from the seasonal human influenza viruses that circulate widely and cause annual epidemics. This report describes two cases of febrile respiratory illness caused by swine-origin influenza A (H3N2) viruses identified on August 19 and August 26, 2011, and the current investigations. No epidemiologic link between the two cases has been identified, and although investigations are ongoing, no additional confirmed human infections with this virus have been detected. These viruses are similar to eight other swine-origin influenza A (H3N2) viruses identified from previous human infections over the past 2 years, but are unique in that one of the eight gene segments (matrix [M] gene) is from the 2009 influenza A (H1N1) virus. The acquisition of the M gene in these two swine-origin influenza A (H3N2) viruses indicates that they are "reassortants" because they contain genes of the swine-origin influenza A (H3N2) virus circulating in North American pigs since 1998 and the 2009 influenza A (H1N1) virus that might have been transmitted to pigs from humans during the 2009 H1N1 pandemic. However, reassortments of the 2009 influenza A (H1N1) virus with other swine influenza A viruses have been reported previously in swine. Clinicians who suspect influenza virus infection in humans with recent exposure to swine should obtain a nasopharyngeal swab from the patient for timely diagnosis at a state public health laboratory and consider empiric neuraminidase inhibitor antiviral treatment to quickly limit potential human transmission.

  13. Parameter Scaling for Epidemic Size in a Spatial Epidemic Model with Mobile Individuals.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chiyori T Urabe

    Full Text Available In recent years, serious infectious diseases tend to transcend national borders and widely spread in a global scale. The incidence and prevalence of epidemics are highly influenced not only by pathogen-dependent disease characteristics such as the force of infection, the latent period, and the infectious period, but also by human mobility and contact patterns. However, the effect of heterogeneous mobility of individuals on epidemic outcomes is not fully understood. Here, we aim to elucidate how spatial mobility of individuals contributes to the final epidemic size in a spatial susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR model with mobile individuals in a square lattice. After illustrating the interplay between the mobility parameters and the other parameters on the spatial epidemic spreading, we propose an index as a function of system parameters, which largely governs the final epidemic size. The main contribution of this study is to show that the proposed index is useful for estimating how parameter scaling affects the final epidemic size. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed index, we show that there is a positive correlation between the proposed index computed with the real data of human airline travels and the actual number of positive incident cases of influenza B in the entire world, implying that the growing incidence of influenza B is attributed to increased human mobility.

  14. Spatial distribution and risk factors of influenza in Jiangsu province, China, based on geographical information system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jia-Cheng Zhang

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Influenza poses a constant, heavy burden on society. Recent research has focused on ecological factors associated with influenza incidence and has also studied influenza with respect to its geographic spread at different scales. This research explores the temporal and spatial parameters of influenza and identifies factors influencing its transmission. A spatial autocorrelation analysis, a spatial-temporal cluster analysis and a spatial regression analysis of influenza rates, carried out in Jiangsu province from 2004 to 2011, found that influenza rates to be spatially dependent in 2004, 2005, 2006 and 2008. South-western districts consistently revealed hotspots of high-incidence influenza. The regression analysis indicates that railways, rivers and lakes are important predictive environmental variables for influenza risk. A better understanding of the epidemic pattern and ecological factors associated with pandemic influenza should benefit public health officials with respect to prevention and controlling measures during future epidemics.

  15. Influenza vaccination

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Østerhus, Sven Frederick

    2015-01-01

    The Cochrane Library was systematically searched for meta-analyses regarding influenza vaccination of various populations, both healthy and sick. An effect in reducing the number of cases of influenza, influenza-like illness or complications to influenza was found in some studies, but, generally......, the quality of the studies was low, and several studies lacked hard clinical endpoints. Data on adverse effects were scarce. More randomised controlled trials investigating the effects of influenza vaccination are warranted....

  16. La influenza, un problema vigente de salud pública Influenza, an existing public health problem

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juan García-García

    2006-06-01

    particular, during winter months and having an elevated effect on public health worldwide. The disease has high morbidity rates for people of all ages and particularly high mortality rates for children, adults over 60 years old, patients with chronic illnesses and pregnant women. Prevention control strategies include vaccination using inactivated, subunit or genetically modified virus vaccines. Influenza in humans is caused by two subtypes of influenza virus A and one of influenza virus B. The influenza virus A that affects humans mutates easily, thereby often causing new antigenic variants of each subtype to emerge, requiring the inclusion of such variants in annual vaccines in order to assure proper immunization of the population. The influenza pandemic refers to the introduction and later worldwide spread of a new influenza virus in the human population, which occurs sporadically. Due to the lack of immunity in humans against the new virus, serious epidemics can be provoked resulting in high morbidity and mortality rates. Historically, influenza pandemics are a result of the transmission of the virus from birds to humans, or the transfer of such genes to seasonal influenza. Wild waterfowl -both migratory and shore birds- carry a large diversity of influenza virus subtypes, which are eventually transmitted to domestic birds. Some of those viruses cross the species barrier and infect mammals, including humans. The adaptation process of the avian virus to mammal hosts requires time. Therefore, the presentation of these cases can take several years. Since December 2003, in several Southeast Asian countries a large proportion of domestic birds have been affected by an avian influenza epidemic (subtype H5N1. By Februrary 2006, the epidemic had already affected countries in Europe and Africa, having a significant economic impact on commercial poultry due to the more than 180 million birds that were sacrificed. Some strains of this avian influenza virus have directly, although

  17. Seasonal influenza vaccine policies, recommendations and use in the World Health Organization’s Western Pacific Region Original Research

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Members of the Western Pacific Region Global Influenza Surveillance and Response System

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Objective: Vaccination is the most effective way to prevent seasonal influenza and its severe outcomes. The objective of our study was to synthesize information on seasonal influenza vaccination policies, recommendations and practices in place in 2011 for all countries and areas in the Western Pacific Region of the World Health Organization (WHO. Methods: Data were collected via a questionnaire on seasonal influenza vaccination policies, recommendations and practices in place in 2011. Results: Thirty-six of the 37 countries and areas (97% responded to the survey. Eighteen (50% reported having established seasonal influenza vaccination policies, an additional seven (19% reported having recommendations for risk groups for seasonal influenza vaccination only and 11 (30% reported having no policies or recommendations in place. Of the 25 countries and areas with policies or recommendations, health-care workers and the elderly were most frequently recommended for vaccination; 24 (96% countries and areas recommended vaccinating these groups, followed by pregnant women (19 [76%], people with chronic illness (18 [72%] and children (15 [60%]. Twenty-six (72% countries and areas reported having seasonal influenza vaccines available through public funding, private market purchase or both. Most of these countries and areas purchased only enough vaccine to cover 25% or less of their populations. Discussion: In light of the new WHO position paper on influenza vaccines published in 2012 and the increasing availability of country-specific data, countries and areas should consider reviewing or developing their seasonal influenza vaccination policies to reduce morbidity and mortality associated with annual epidemics and as part of ongoing efforts for pandemic preparedness.

  18. Do recommended high-risk adults benefit from a first influenza vaccination?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hak, E; Buskens, E; Nichol, K L; Verheij, T J M

    2006-01-01

    It is unknown whether a first influenza vaccination protects high-risk adults from severe morbidity and mortality during influenza epidemics. As part of the PRISMA nested case-control study, we aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of first-time and repeat influenza vaccinations in adult persons

  19. Meningitis - H. influenzae

    Science.gov (United States)

    H. influenzae meningitis; H. flu meningitis; Haemophilus influenzae type b meningitis ... H. influenzae meningitis is caused by Haemophilus influenzae type b bacteria. This illness is not the same ...

  20. Transmission of Influenza B Viruses in the Guinea Pig

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pica, Natalie; Chou, Yi-Ying; Bouvier, Nicole M.

    2012-01-01

    Epidemic influenza is typically caused by infection with viruses of the A and B types and can result in substantial morbidity and mortality during a given season. Here we demonstrate that influenza B viruses can replicate in the upper respiratory tract of the guinea pig and that viruses of the two main lineages can be transmitted with 100% efficiency between inoculated and naïve animals in both contact and noncontact models. Our results also indicate that, like in the case for influenza A virus, transmission of influenza B viruses is enhanced at colder temperatures, providing an explanation for the seasonality of influenza epidemics in temperate climates. We therefore present, for the first time, a small animal model with which to study the underlying mechanisms of influenza B virus transmission. PMID:22301149

  1. Influenza Virus and Glycemic Variability in Diabetes: A Killer Combination?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katina D. Hulme

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Following the 2009 H1N1 influenza virus pandemic, numerous studies identified the striking link between diabetes mellitus and influenza disease severity. Typically, influenza virus is a self-limiting infection but in individuals who have a pre-existing chronic illness, such as diabetes mellitus, severe influenza can develop. Here, we discuss the latest clinical and experimental evidence for the role of diabetes in predisposing the host to severe influenza. We explore the possible mechanisms that underlie this synergy and highlight the, as yet, unexplored role that blood glucose oscillations may play in disease development. Diabetes is one of the world’s fastest growing chronic diseases and influenza virus represents a constant and pervasive threat to human health. It is therefore imperative that we understand how diabetes increases influenza severity in order to mitigate the burden of future influenza epidemics and pandemics.

  2. Uptake of influenza vaccination, awareness and its associated barriers among medical students of a University Hospital in Central Saudi Arabia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abalkhail, Mohammed S; Alzahrany, Mohannad S; Alghamdi, Khaled A; Alsoliman, Muath A; Alzahrani, Mosa A; Almosned, Badr S; Gosadi, Ibrahim M; Tharkar, Shabana

    Outbreaks of influenza epidemics are common but influenza vaccination is sub-optimal among the healthcare staff including the medical students. The study aims to assess the rate of vaccine uptake among medical students, its associated barriers and levels of awareness. A cross sectional study was done at a University Hospital in Saudi Arabia on 421 medical students by self administered questionnaire from February to March 2015. The immunization rate of seasonal influenza vaccine was just 20.7% in 2015, while it was 57% for cumulative of previous three-year period. The intended uptake among those offered vaccination was 68%. The significant determinants of vaccine uptake were clinical years of medical study (pinfluencing vaccine uptake decision were health department guidelines, medical training, social and media influence. Barriers of vaccination constituted, assumption of not being at risk of influenza (37.9%), vaccine side effects (28.9%), questioned effectiveness of the vaccine (14.5%), and inability to allocate time (11%). Knowledge levels were unsatisfactory and males scored lower (5.4±1.7) than females (6.5±1.4) out of total score of 9. Both knowledge and uptake of annual influenza vaccination was inadequate. Policy makers can formulate strategies with a focus on larger coverage of medical students. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  3. Scenario-ontwikkeling zorgvraag bij een influenza-pandemie

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Genugten MLL van; Heijnen MLA; Jager JC; CZO; CIE

    2001-01-01

    Another influenza pandemic, following the 1918, 1957 and the 1968 pandemic, is likely if not inevitable. In a 'regular' influenza-epidemic 5-20% of the population is to become clinically ill; during a pandemic this percentage can mount to 30 or even 50%. A pandemic could cause substantial social

  4. Avian Influenza A (H7N9) Virus

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... August 7, 2017 Increase in Human Infections with Avian Influenza A(H7N9) Virus During the Fifth Epidemic — China, October 2016–February 2017 Antigenic and genetic characteristics of zoonotic influenza viruses and candidate vaccine viruses developed for ...

  5. Timeliness of syndromic influenza surveillance through work and school absenteeism

    OpenAIRE

    Bollaerts, K; Antoine, J; Robesyn, E; Van Proeyen, L; Vomberg, J; Feys, E; De Decker, E; Catry, B

    2010-01-01

    In this paper, we investigate the usefulness of work and school absenteeism surveillance as an early warning system for influenza. In particular, time trends in daily absenteeism rates collected during the A(H1N1)2009 pandemic are compared with weekly incidence rates of influenza-like illness (ILI) obtained from the Belgian Sentinel General Practitioner (SGP) network. The results indicate a rise in absenteeism rates prior to the onset of the influenza epidemic, suggesting that absenteeism sur...

  6. [History of pandemic influenza in Japan].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matsumoto, Keizo

    2010-09-01

    In Japan, influenza like epidemics were described many times since Heian era. However, Spanish flu as the modern medicine invaded Japan in 1918, thus almost infected 390,000 patients died with associated pneumonia. After the discovery of influenza virus in 1933, Japan experienced pandemic influenza--Asian flu(H2N2) in 1957. After about 10 years, Hong Kong flu (H3N2) came to Japan at 1968. However, we had many reliable antibiotics but had not any antiviral drug at the early time. After year 2000, we fortunately obtained reliable three antiviral drugs such as amantadine, oseltamivir and zanamivir. Moreover, very useful rapid test kits for influenza A and B viruses were developed and used in Japan. 2009 H1N1 influenza epidemic occured in Japan after the great epidemic in Mexico and North America but elderly patient was few. With together, host conditions regarding with high risk are changing. Lessons from past several pandemic influenza are those that many issues for changing high risk conditions, viral genetic changes, developing antiviral agents, developing new useful vaccins and determinating bacterial secondary pathogens are important.

  7. Transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H7 virus

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bos, M.E.H.

    2009-01-01

    Knowledge of the transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus still has gaps, complicating epidemic control. A model was developed to back-calculate the day HPAI virus was introduced into a flock, based on within-flock mortality data of the Dutch HPAI H7N7 epidemic (2003). The

  8. Avian influenza

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bird flu; H5N1; H5N2; H5N8; H7N9; Avian influenza A (HPAI) H5 ... The first avian influenza in humans was reported in Hong Kong in 1997. It was called avian influenza (H5N1). The outbreak was linked ...

  9. Emerging influenza

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    E. de Wit (Emmie); R.A.M. Fouchier (Ron)

    2008-01-01

    textabstractIn 1918 the Spanish influenza pandemic, caused by an avian H1N1 virus, resulted in over 50 million deaths worldwide. Several outbreaks of H7 influenza A viruses have resulted in human cases, including one fatal case. Since 1997, the outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI)

  10. Polyphenolic glycosides isolated from Pogostemon cablin (Blanco) Benth. as novel influenza neuraminidase inhibitors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Fang; Cao, Wei; Deng, Chao; Wu, Zhaoquan; Zeng, Guangyao; Zhou, Yingjun

    2016-01-01

    Influenza is historically an ancient disease that causes annual epidemics and, at irregular intervals, pandemics. At present, the first-line drugs (oseltamivir and zanamivir) don't seem to be optimistic due to the spontaneously arising and spreading of oseltamivir resistance among influenza virus. Pogostemon cablin (Blanco) Benth. (P. cablin) is an important traditional Chinese medicine herb that has been widely used for treatment on common cold, nausea and fever. In our previous study, we have identified an extract derived from P. cablin as a novel selective neuraminidase (NA) inhibitor. A series of polyphenolic compounds were isolated from P. cablin for their potential ability to inhibit neuraminidase of influenza A virus. Two new octaketides (1, 2), together with other twenty compounds were isolated from P. cablin. These compounds showed better inhibitory activity against NA. The significant potent compounds of this series were compounds 2 (IC50 = 3.87 ± 0.19 μ mol/ml), 11, 12, 14, 15, 19 and 20 (IC50 was in 2.12 to 3.87 μ mol/ml), which were about fourfold to doubled less potent than zanamivir and could be used to design novel influenza NA inhibitors, especially compound 2, that exhibit increased activity based on these compounds. With the help of molecular docking, we had a preliminary understanding of the mechanism of the two new compounds (1-2)' NA inhibitory activity. Fractions 6 and polyphenolic compounds isolated from fractions 6 showed higher NA inhibition than that of the initial plant exacts. The findings of this study indicate that polyphenolic compounds and fractions 6 derived from P. cablin are potential NA inhibitors. This work is one of the evidence that P. cablin has better inhibitory activity against influenza, which not only enriches the compound library of P. cablin, but also facilitates further development and promises its therapeutic potential for the rising challenge of influenza diseases.

  11. [Ethical principles of management and planning during influenza pandemic].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kubar', O I; Asatrian, A Zh

    2012-01-01

    The article is dedicated to an actual problem of ethical component inclusion into the system of management and planning of epidemic control measures during threat emergence and in the course of influenza pandemic (epidemic) progress. Data regarding development of international ethical guidelines during influenza including WHO recommendations are presented and analysis of normative documents in Russian Federation is given. A necessity of comprehension and accounting of ethical values in pandemic preparedness is shown, main directions of action and responsibility are revealed. Key ethical positions of planning and implementation of measures during influenza pandemic are outlined, compliance with those determines the level of public support and thus provides the effectiveness of the implemented measures.

  12. Interspecies Interactions and Potential Influenza A Virus Risk in Small Swine Farms in Peru

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-03-15

    and swine influenza viruses : our current understanding of the zoonotic risk. Vet Res 2007, 38(2):243–260. 4. Wertheim JO: When pigs fly: the avian ...first authors. Abstract Background The recent avian influenza epidemic in Asia and the H1N1 pandemic demonstrated that influenza A viruses pose a...prime “mixing vessels” due to the dual receptivity of their trachea to human and avian strains. Additionally, avian and human influenza viruses

  13. Information Spreading in Epidemics and in Communication Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Uekermann, Florian Philipp

    The PhD thesis revolves mainly around models of disease spreading and human behavior. We present models for different epidemic patterns of infectious diseases. This includes investigations of the trajectory of the 2014 Ebola outbreak in West-Africa, influenza evolution and the seasonal dynamics...

  14. Chapter 6. Protection of patients and staff during a pandemic. Recommendations and standard operating procedures for intensive care unit and hospital preparations for an influenza epidemic or mass disaster

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Taylor, Bruce L.; Montgomery, Hugh E.; Rhodes, Andrew; Sprung, Charles L.; Christian, Michael D.; Camargo, Ruben; Ceraso, Daniel; Azoulay, Elie; Duguet, Alexandre; Guery, Benoit; Reinhart, Konrad; Adini, Bruria; Barlavie, Yaron; Benin-Goren, Odeda; Cohen, Robert; Klein, Motti; Leoniv, Yuval; Margalit, Gila; Rubinovitch, Bina; Sonnenblick, Moshe; Steinberg, Avraham; Weissman, Charles; Wolff, Donna; Kesecioglu, Jozef; de Jong, Menno; Moreno, Rui; An, Youzhong; Du, Bin; Joynt, Gavin M.; Colvin, John; Loo, Shi; Richards, Guy; Artigas, Antonio; Pugin, Jerome; Amundson, Dennis; Devereaux, Asha; Beigel, John; Danis, Marion; Farmer, Chris; Hick, John L.; Maki, Dennis; Masur, Henry; Rubinson, Lewis; Sandrock, Christian; Talmor, Daniel; Truog, Robert; Zimmerman, Janice; Brett, Steve; Montgomery, Hugh; Sanderson, Frances

    2010-01-01

    To provide recommendations and standard operating procedures (SOPs) for intensive care unit (ICU) and hospital preparations for an influenza pandemic or mass disaster with a specific focus on protection of patients and staff. Based on a literature review and expert opinion, a Delphi process was used

  15. Viral vector-based influenza vaccines

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Vries, Rory D.; Rimmelzwaan, Guus F.

    2016-01-01

    ABSTRACT Antigenic drift of seasonal influenza viruses and the occasional introduction of influenza viruses of novel subtypes into the human population complicate the timely production of effective vaccines that antigenically match the virus strains that cause epidemic or pandemic outbreaks. The development of game-changing vaccines that induce broadly protective immunity against a wide variety of influenza viruses is an unmet need, in which recombinant viral vectors may provide. Use of viral vectors allows the delivery of any influenza virus antigen, or derivative thereof, to the immune system, resulting in the optimal induction of virus-specific B- and T-cell responses against this antigen of choice. This systematic review discusses results obtained with vectored influenza virus vaccines and advantages and disadvantages of the currently available viral vectors. PMID:27455345

  16. NNDSS - Table II. Giardiasis to Haemophilus influenza

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — NNDSS - Table II. Giardiasis to Haemophilus influenza - 2014. In this Table, all conditions with a 5-year average annual national total of more than or equals 1,000...

  17. Estimating Influenza Outbreaks Using Both Search Engine Query Data and Social Media Data in South Korea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woo, Hyekyung; Cho, Youngtae; Shim, Eunyoung; Lee, Jong-Koo; Lee, Chang-Gun; Kim, Seong Hwan

    2016-07-04

    As suggested as early as in 2006, logs of queries submitted to search engines seeking information could be a source for detection of emerging influenza epidemics if changes in the volume of search queries are monitored (infodemiology). However, selecting queries that are most likely to be associated with influenza epidemics is a particular challenge when it comes to generating better predictions. In this study, we describe a methodological extension for detecting influenza outbreaks using search query data; we provide a new approach for query selection through the exploration of contextual information gleaned from social media data. Additionally, we evaluate whether it is possible to use these queries for monitoring and predicting influenza epidemics in South Korea. Our study was based on freely available weekly influenza incidence data and query data originating from the search engine on the Korean website Daum between April 3, 2011 and April 5, 2014. To select queries related to influenza epidemics, several approaches were applied: (1) exploring influenza-related words in social media data, (2) identifying the chief concerns related to influenza, and (3) using Web query recommendations. Optimal feature selection by least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (Lasso) and support vector machine for regression (SVR) were used to construct a model predicting influenza epidemics. In total, 146 queries related to influenza were generated through our initial query selection approach. A considerable proportion of optimal features for final models were derived from queries with reference to the social media data. The SVR model performed well: the prediction values were highly correlated with the recent observed influenza-like illness (r=.956; Psearch queries to enhance influenza surveillance in South Korea. In addition, an approach for query selection using social media data seems ideal for supporting influenza surveillance based on search query data.

  18. Influenza Vaccination Strategies: Comparing Inactivated and Live Attenuated Influenza Vaccines

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saranya Sridhar

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Influenza is a major respiratory pathogen causing annual outbreaks and occasional pandemics. Influenza vaccination is the major method of prophylaxis. Currently annual influenza vaccination is recommended for groups at high risk of complications from influenza infection such as pregnant women, young children, people with underlying disease and the elderly, along with occupational groups such a healthcare workers and farm workers. There are two main types of vaccines available: the parenteral inactivated influenza vaccine and the intranasal live attenuated influenza vaccine. The inactivated vaccines are licensed from 6 months of age and have been used for more than 50 years with a good safety profile. Inactivated vaccines are standardized according to the presence of the viral major surface glycoprotein hemagglutinin and protection is mediated by the induction of vaccine strain specific antibody responses. In contrast, the live attenuated vaccines are licensed in Europe for children from 2–17 years of age and provide a multifaceted immune response with local and systemic antibody and T cell responses but with no clear correlate of protection. Here we discuss the immunological immune responses elicited by the two vaccines and discuss future work to better define correlates of protection.

  19. Understanding influenza vaccine protection in the community: an assessment of the 2013 influenza season in Victoria, Australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carville, Kylie S; Grant, Kristina A; Sullivan, Sheena G; Fielding, James E; Lane, Courtney R; Franklin, Lucinda; Druce, Julian; Kelly, Heath A

    2015-01-03

    The influenza virus undergoes frequent antigenic drift, necessitating annual review of the composition of the influenza vaccine. Vaccination is an important strategy for reducing the impact and burden of influenza, and estimating vaccine effectiveness (VE) each year informs surveillance and preventative measures. We aimed to describe the influenza season and to estimate the effectiveness of the influenza vaccine in Victoria, Australia, in 2013. Routine laboratory notifications, general practitioner sentinel surveillance (including a medical deputising service) data, and sentinel hospital admission surveillance data for the influenza season (29 April to 27 October 2013) were collated in Victoria, Australia, to describe influenza-like illness or confirmed influenza during the season. General practitioner sentinel surveillance data were used to estimate VE against medically-attended laboratory confirmed influenza. VE was estimated using the case test negative design as 1-adjusted odds ratio (odds of vaccination in cases compared with controls) × 100%. Cases tested positive for influenza while non-cases (controls) tested negative. Estimates were adjusted for age group, week of onset, time to swabbing and co-morbidities. The 2013 influenza season was characterised by relatively low activity with a late peak. Influenza B circulation preceded that of influenza A(H1)pdm09, with very little influenza A(H3) circulation. Adjusted VE for all influenza was 55% (95%CI: -11, 82), for influenza A(H1)pdm09 was 43% (95%CI: -132, 86), and for influenza B was 56% (95%CI: -51, 87) Imputation of missing data raised the influenza VE point estimate to 64% (95%CI: 13, 85). Clinicians can continue to promote a positive approach to influenza vaccination, understanding that inactivated influenza vaccines prevent at least 50% of laboratory-confirmed outcomes in hospitals and the community. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Seroprevalence survey of H9N2 avian influenza virus in backyard chickens around the Caspian Sea in Iran

    OpenAIRE

    Hadipour,MM

    2010-01-01

    Since 1998, an epidemic of avian influenza occurred in the Iranian poultry industry. The identified agent presented low pathogenicity, and was subtyped as an H9N2 avian influenza virus. Backyard chickens can play an important role in the epidemiology of H9N2 avian influenza virus infection. Close contact of backyard chickens with migratory birds, especially with aquatic birds, as well as neighboring poultry farms, may pose the risk of transmitting avian influenza virus, but little is known ab...

  1. Virus-Vectored Influenza Virus Vaccines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tripp, Ralph A.; Tompkins, S. Mark

    2014-01-01

    Despite the availability of an inactivated vaccine that has been licensed for >50 years, the influenza virus continues to cause morbidity and mortality worldwide. Constant evolution of circulating influenza virus strains and the emergence of new strains diminishes the effectiveness of annual vaccines that rely on a match with circulating influenza strains. Thus, there is a continued need for new, efficacious vaccines conferring cross-clade protection to avoid the need for biannual reformulation of seasonal influenza vaccines. Recombinant virus-vectored vaccines are an appealing alternative to classical inactivated vaccines because virus vectors enable native expression of influenza antigens, even from virulent influenza viruses, while expressed in the context of the vector that can improve immunogenicity. In addition, a vectored vaccine often enables delivery of the vaccine to sites of inductive immunity such as the respiratory tract enabling protection from influenza virus infection. Moreover, the ability to readily manipulate virus vectors to produce novel influenza vaccines may provide the quickest path toward a universal vaccine protecting against all influenza viruses. This review will discuss experimental virus-vectored vaccines for use in humans, comparing them to licensed vaccines and the hurdles faced for licensure of these next-generation influenza virus vaccines. PMID:25105278

  2. Influenza in solid organ transplant recipients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, Spencer T; Torabi, Mina J; Gabardi, Steven

    2012-02-01

    To review available data describing the epidemiology, outcomes, prevention, and treatment of influenza virus in the solid organ transplant population and to evaluate the strengths and limitations of the current literature, with a focus on literature reviewing annual influenza strains and the recent pandemic novel influenza A/H1N1 strain. A systematic literature search (July 1980-June 2011) was performed via PubMed using the following key words: influenza, human; influenza; novel influenza A H1/N1; transplantation; solid organ transplantation; kidney transplant; renal transplant; lung transplant; heart transplant; and liver transplant. Papers were excluded if they were not written in English or were animal studies or in vitro studies. Data from fully published studies and recent reports from international conferences were included. The influenza virus presents a constant challenge to immunocompromised patients and their health care providers. The annual influenza strain introduces a highly infectious and pathogenic risk to solid organ transplant recipients. In 2009, the World Health Organization declared a pandemic as a result of a novel influenza A/H1N1 strain. The pandemic introduced an additional viral threat to solid organ transplant patients at increased risk for infectious complications. The mainstay for prevention of influenza infection in all at-risk populations is appropriate vaccination. Antiviral therapies against influenza for chemoprophylaxis and treatment of infection are available; however, dosing strategies in the solid organ transplant population are not well defined. The solid organ transplant population is at an increased risk of severe complications from influenza infection. Identifying risks, preventing illness, and appropriately treating active infection is essential in this patient population.

  3. Impact of quadrivalent influenza vaccine on public health and influenza-related costs in Australia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aurélien Jamotte

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Annual trivalent influenza vaccines (TIV containing three influenza strains (A/H1N1, A/H3N2, and one B have been recommended for the prevention of influenza. However, worldwide co-circulation of two distinct B lineages (Victoria and Yamagata and difficulties in predicting which lineage will predominate each season have led to the development of quadrivalent influenza vaccines (QIV, which include both B lineages. Our analysis evaluates the public health benefit and associated influenza-related costs avoided which would have been obtained by using QIV rather than TIV in Australia over the period 2002–2012. Methods A static model stratified by age group was used, focusing on people at increased risk of influenza as defined by the Australian vaccination recommendations. B-lineage cross-protection was accounted for. We calculated the potential impact of QIV compared with TIV over the seasons 2002–2012 (2009 pandemic year excluded using Australian data on influenza circulation, vaccine coverage, hospitalisation and mortality rates as well as unit costs, and international data on vaccine effectiveness, influenza attack rate, GP consultation rate and working days lost. Third-party payer and societal influenza-related costs were estimated in 2014 Australian dollars. Sensitivity analyses were conducted. Results Using QIV instead of TIV over the period 2002–2012 would have prevented an estimated 68,271 additional influenza cases, 47,537 GP consultations, 3,522 hospitalisations and 683 deaths in the population at risk of influenza. These results translate into influenza-related societal costs avoided of $46.5 million. The estimated impact of QIV was higher for young children and the elderly. The overall impact of QIV depended mainly on vaccine effectiveness and the influenza attack rate attributable to the mismatched B lineage. Conclusion The broader protection offered by QIV would have reduced the number of influenza infections

  4. Influenza Vaccination in Young Children Reduces Influenza-Associated Hospitalizations in Older Adults, 2002–2006

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohen, Steven A.; Chui, Kenneth K.H.; Naumova, Elena N.

    2011-01-01

    OBJECTIVES To assess how influenza vaccination coverage in children is related to pneumonia and influenza (P&I) in US seniors and if these associations are modified by sociodemographic factors. DESIGN We abstracted approximately 5 million hospitalization records from the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services for four influenza years, 2002–2006. We estimated a single year age distribution of rates of P&I hospitalization by state for each influenza season and observed an exponential acceleration in the P&I rates with age for each influenza season. State-and season-specific P&I rate accelerations were regressed against the percentage of vaccinated children, seniors, or both using mixed effects models. SETTING United States population, 2002–2006 PARTICIPANTS US population aged 65 and above MEASUREMENTS State-level influenza annual vaccination coverage data in children and seniors were obtained from the National Immunization Survey and the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, respectively. RESULTS Child influenza vaccination coverage was negatively associated with age acceleration in P&I, whereas influenza vaccination in the seniors themselves was not significantly associated with P&I in seniors. CONCLUSION Vaccination of children against influenza may induce herd immunity against influenza for seniors and has the potential to be more beneficial to seniors than the existing policy to prevent influenza by vaccinating seniors themselves. PMID:21275932

  5. Uptake of the Influenza Vaccination in Pregnancy

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Crosby, DA

    2016-09-01

    Influenza is caused by a highly infectious RNA virus, which usually occurs in a seasonal pattern with epidemics in the winter months. The objective of this study was to determine the uptake of the influenza vaccine in a pregnant population and ascertain the reasons why some women did not receive it. A prospective cohort study was conducted over a two-week period in January 2016 in the National Maternity Hospital Dublin, a tertiary referral maternity hospital delivering over 9000 infants per year. There were 504 women studied over the 2-week period. Overall, 197(39.1%) women received the vaccine at a mean gestational age 20.9 weeks (SD 7.0). Given the increased rates of influenza in the community and the associated implications for mother and infant, it is important that pregnant women are educated regarding the risks of influenza in pregnancy and encourage this cohort to be vaccinated.

  6. Mapping of the US Domestic Influenza Virologic Surveillance Landscape.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jester, Barbara; Schwerzmann, Joy; Mustaquim, Desiree; Aden, Tricia; Brammer, Lynnette; Humes, Rosemary; Shult, Pete; Shahangian, Shahram; Gubareva, Larisa; Xu, Xiyan; Miller, Joseph; Jernigan, Daniel

    2018-07-17

    Influenza virologic surveillance is critical each season for tracking influenza circulation, following trends in antiviral drug resistance, detecting novel influenza infections in humans, and selecting viruses for use in annual seasonal vaccine production. We developed a framework and process map for characterizing the landscape of US influenza virologic surveillance into 5 tiers of influenza testing: outpatient settings (tier 1), inpatient settings and commercial laboratories (tier 2), state public health laboratories (tier 3), National Influenza Reference Center laboratories (tier 4), and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention laboratories (tier 5). During the 2015-16 season, the numbers of influenza tests directly contributing to virologic surveillance were 804,000 in tiers 1 and 2; 78,000 in tier 3; 2,800 in tier 4; and 3,400 in tier 5. With the release of the 2017 US Pandemic Influenza Plan, the proposed framework will support public health officials in modeling, surveillance, and pandemic planning and response.

  7. Influenza (Flu) Viruses

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Types Seasonal Avian Swine Variant Pandemic Other Influenza (Flu) Viruses Language: English (US) Español Recommend on Facebook ... influenza circulate and cause illness. More Information about Flu Viruses Types of Influenza Viruses Influenza A and ...

  8. Sentinel surveillance for influenza in Senegal, 1996-2009.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niang, Mbayame Ndiaye; Dosseh, Annick; Ndiaye, Kader; Sagna, Monique; Gregory, Victoria; Goudiaby, Deborah; Hay, Alan; Diop, Ousmane M

    2012-12-15

    Data on influenza in tropical and resource-limited countries are scarce. In this study we present results from 14 years of influenza surveillance in Senegal, one of the few tropical countries in Africa from which longitudinal data are available. From 1996 to 2009, we collected respiratory specimens from outpatients presenting with influenza-like illness at 13 facilities in order to investigate the epidemiology of seasonal influenza and the characteristics of the circulating influenza viruses. Specimens were tested for influenza using viral isolation and/or reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR). From 1996 to 2009, specimens were obtained from 9176 patients; 1233 (13%) were influenza-positive by virus isolation and/or RT-PCR. Among positive samples, 958 (77%) were influenza A, 268 (22%) influenza B, and 7 (1%) influenza type C; of influenza A viruses, 619 (65%) were A(H3) and 339 (35%) A(H1), of which 13 (1%) were identified as H1N2. The proportion positive was similar for children 55 years (9%). Although influenza A(H1), A(H3), and B all circulated during most years, influenza A(H3N2) predominated during 9 of the 14 years. Influenza activity consistently peaked during the rainy season (July-September). Phylogenetic analysis showed that viruses circulating in Senegal were similar to contemporary viruses circulating elsewhere in the world. Our data confirm that influenza is prevalent in Senegal, occurs in seasonal epidemics, and contributes to the burden of respiratory diseases in all age groups.

  9. Modeling Epidemic Network Failures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ruepp, Sarah Renée; Fagertun, Anna Manolova

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents the implementation of a failure propagation model for transport networks when multiple failures occur resulting in an epidemic. We model the Susceptible Infected Disabled (SID) epidemic model and validate it by comparing it to analytical solutions. Furthermore, we evaluate...... the SID model’s behavior and impact on the network performance, as well as the severity of the infection spreading. The simulations are carried out in OPNET Modeler. The model provides an important input to epidemic connection recovery mechanisms, and can due to its flexibility and versatility be used...... to evaluate multiple epidemic scenarios in various network types....

  10. Effect of gargling with tea and ingredients of tea on the prevention of influenza infection: a meta-analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kazuki Ide

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Influenza viruses can spread easily from person to person, and annual influenza epidemics are serious public health issues worldwide. Non-pharmaceutical public health interventions could potentially be effective for combatting influenza epidemics, but combined interventions and/or interventions with greater effectiveness are needed. Experimental studies have reported that tea and its ingredients (especially catechins have antiviral activities. Although several clinical studies have investigated the use of tea or its ingredients to prevent influenza infections, the effect of gargling these substances has remained uncertain. Methods We conducted a meta-analysis of randomized controlled studies and prospective cohort studies to assess the effect of gargling with tea and its ingredients on the prevention of influenza infection. The published literature was searched using the Cochrane Library, PubMed/MEDLINE (1966 to September 2015, Web of Science (1981 to September 2015, and Ichu-shi Web (1983 to September 2015. The extracted studies were read by two reviewers independently, and their overall scientific quality was evaluated. Studies meeting our inclusion criteria were pooled using the Mantel-Haenszel method in a fixed effects model and were also analyzed in a random effects model. The qualities of the model fits were assessed using the Akaike information criterion (AIC and Bayesian information criterion (BIC. Results The literature search and review identified 5 studies that met the inclusion criteria for the meta-analysis (total number of participants, 1890; mean age range, 16–83 years. The participants who gargled with tea or its ingredients showed a lower risk of influenza infection than did participants who gargled with placebo/water or who did not gargle (fixed effects model, Mantel-Haenszel method: relative risk [RR] = 0.70, 95 % confidence interval [CI] = 0.54–0.89; random effects model: RR = 0.71, 95

  11. Establishment and evaluation of a theater influenza monitoring platform.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jian; Yang, Hui-Suo; Deng, Bing; Shi, Meng-Jing; Li, Xiang-Da; Nian, Qing-Gong; Song, Wen-Jing; Bing, Feng; Li, Qing-Feng

    2017-11-20

    Influenza is an acute respiratory infectious disease with a high incidence rate in the Chinese army, which directly disturbs military training and affects soldiers' health. Influenza surveillance systems are widely used around the world and play an important role in influenza epidemic prevention and control. As a theater centers for disease prevention and control, we established an influenza monitoring platform (IMP) in 2014 to strengthen the monitoring of influenza-like illness and influenza virus infection. In this study, we introduced the constitution, influenza virus detection, and quality control for an IMP. The monitoring effect was also evaluated by comparing the monitoring data with data from national influenza surveillance systems. The experiences and problems associated with the platform also were summarized. A theater IMP was established based on 3 levels of medical units, including monitoring sites, testing laboratories and a checking laboratory. A series of measures were taken to guarantee the quality of monitoring, such as technical training, a unified process, sufficient supervision and timely communication. The platform has run smoothly for 3 monitoring years to date. In the 2014-2015 and 2016-2017 monitoring years, sample amount coincided with that obtained from the National Influenza Surveillance program. In the 2015-2016 monitoring year, due to the strict prevention and control measures, an influenza epidemic peak was avoided in monitoring units, and the monitoring data did not coincide with that of the National Influenza Surveillance program. Several problems, including insufficient attention, unreasonable administrative intervention or subordination relationships, and the necessity of detection in monitoring sites were still observed. A theater IMP was established rationally and played a deserved role in the prevention and control of influenza. However, several problems remain to be solved.

  12. Swine Influenza/Variant Influenza Viruses

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Address What's this? Submit What's this? Submit Button Influenza Types Seasonal Avian Swine Variant Pandemic Other Information on Swine Influenza/Variant Influenza Virus Language: English (US) Español Recommend ...

  13. Avian And Other Zoonotic Influenza

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... of Avian Influenza A(H5N1) Avian influenza: guidelines. recommendations, descriptions Global Influenza and Surveillance Response System (GISRS) Food safety authorities network OIE Avian Influenza ...

  14. Avian influenza virus transmission to mammals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herfst, S; Imai, M; Kawaoka, Y; Fouchier, R A M

    2014-01-01

    Influenza A viruses cause yearly epidemics and occasional pandemics. In addition, zoonotic influenza A viruses sporadically infect humans and may cause severe respiratory disease and fatalities. Fortunately, most of these viruses do not have the ability to be efficiently spread among humans via aerosols or respiratory droplets (airborne transmission) and to subsequently cause a pandemic. However, adaptation of these zoonotic viruses to humans by mutation or reassortment with human influenza A viruses may result in airborne transmissible viruses with pandemic potential. Although our knowledge of factors that affect mammalian adaptation and transmissibility of influenza viruses is still limited, we are beginning to understand some of the biological traits that drive airborne transmission of influenza viruses among mammals. Increased understanding of the determinants and mechanisms of airborne transmission may aid in assessing the risks posed by avian influenza viruses to human health, and preparedness for such risks. This chapter summarizes recent discoveries on the genetic and phenotypic traits required for avian influenza viruses to become airborne transmissible between mammals.

  15. Contemporary Avian Influenza A Virus Subtype H1, H6, H7, H10, and H15 Hemagglutinin Genes Encode a Mammalian Virulence Factor Similar to the 1918 Pandemic Virus H1 Hemagglutinin

    OpenAIRE

    Qi, Li; Pujanauski, Lindsey M.; Davis, A. Sally; Schwartzman, Louis M.; Chertow, Daniel S.; Baxter, David; Scherler, Kelsey; Hartshorn, Kevan L.; Slemons, Richard D.; Walters, Kathie-Anne; Kash, John C.; Taubenberger, Jeffery K.

    2014-01-01

    ABSTRACT Zoonotic avian influenza virus infections may lead to epidemics or pandemics. The 1918 pandemic influenza virus has an avian influenza virus-like genome, and its H1 hemagglutinin was identified as a key mammalian virulence factor. A chimeric 1918 virus expressing a contemporary avian H1 hemagglutinin, however, displayed murine pathogenicity indistinguishable from that of the 1918 virus. Here, isogenic chimeric avian influenza viruses were constructed on an avian influenza virus backb...

  16. Serosurvey of antibody to highly pathogenic avian influenza (H5N1 ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Avian influenza is a disease of economic and public health importance that has been described in most domestic animals and humans. Highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 epidemic in Nigeria was observed in agro-ecological zones where pigs and chickens are raised in shared environment with chances of ...

  17. Outbreak of avian influenza H7N3 on a turkey farm in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Velkers, F.C.; Bouma, A.; Matthijs, M.G.R.; Koch, G.; Westendorp, S.T.; Stegeman, J.A.

    2006-01-01

    This case report describes the course of an outbreak of avian influenza on a Dutch turkey farm. When clinical signs were observed their cause remained unclear. However, serum samples taken for the monitoring campaign launched during the epidemic of highly pathogenic avian influenza in 2003, showed

  18. Surveillance of low pathogenic avian influenza in layer chickens: risk factors, transmission and early detection

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gonzales Rojas, J.L.

    2012-01-01

    Low pathogenic avian influenza virus (LPAIv) of H5 and H7 subtypes are able to mutate to highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIv), which are lethal for most poultry species, can cause large epidemics and are a serious threat to public health. Thus, circulation of these LPAIv in poultry is

  19. Economic cost and burden of dengue during epidemics and non-epidemic years in Taiwan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dih-Ling Luh

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Background: Determining the disease and economic burden of dengue is critical for the allocation of public health resources. Several studies have used disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs to estimate the disease burden of dengue in different regions. However, there are no published studies discussing the estimates of dengue-related economic and disease burden specifically in Taiwan. Objectives: We assessed the economic cost and disease burden of dengue infections in Taiwan for the period 1998–2014, and compared these during epidemic and non-epidemic years. Methods: We estimated the annual DALYs per million population using the disability weights for dengue fever (DF, dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF, dengue shock syndrome (DSS, and death cases. Economic costs were estimated and divided into direct (medical costs and indirect costs (lost work days and caregiver fees. Results: For the period 1998–2014, a mean of 115.3 (range: 6.3–934.3 DALYs per million population annually were lost to dengue. In epidemic years, direct costs associated with dengue resulted mostly from hospitalization (86.09%, emergency (7.77%, outpatient (6.10%, and drug costs (0.03%. For indirect costs, lost productivity due to death (70.76% was the dominant contributor. Overall, the costs were 12.3 times higher in epidemic years than in non-epidemic years (Wilcoxon rank sum test, p < 0.05. Conclusions: This study is the first to evaluate the economic costs and disease burden of dengue infections for this period in Taiwan, and reveals significant differences in economic impact between epidemic and non-epidemic years. Keywords: Economic cost of disease, Disease burden, Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs, Dengue, Epidemic

  20. Chimeric Hemagglutinin Constructs Induce Broad Protection against Influenza B Virus Challenge in the Mouse Model

    OpenAIRE

    Ermler, Megan E.; Kirkpatrick, Ericka; Sun, Weina; Hai, Rong; Amanat, Fatima; Chromikova, Veronika; Palese, Peter; Krammer, Florian

    2017-01-01

    Seasonal influenza virus epidemics represent a significant public health burden. Approximately 25% of all influenza virus infections are caused by type B viruses, and these infections can be severe, especially in children. Current influenza virus vaccines are an effective prophylaxis against infection but are impacted by rapid antigenic drift, which can lead to mismatches between vaccine strains and circulating strains. Here, we describe a broadly protective vaccine candidate based on chimeri...

  1. Outbreak of avian influenza H7N3 on a turkey farm in the Netherlands

    OpenAIRE

    Velkers, F.C.; Bouma, A.; Matthijs, M.G.R.; Koch, G.; Westendorp, S.T.; Stegeman, J.A.

    2006-01-01

    This case report describes the course of an outbreak of avian influenza on a Dutch turkey farm. When clinical signs were observed their cause remained unclear. However, serum samples taken for the monitoring campaign launched during the epidemic of highly pathogenic avian influenza in 2003, showed that all the remaining turkeys were seropositive against an H7 strain of avian influenza virus, and the virus was subsequently isolated from stored carcases. The results of a reverse-transcriptase P...

  2. Ultraviolet air disinfection for protection against influenza

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Riley, R.L.

    1977-01-01

    Three converging lines of evidence support the belief that it may be possible, under appropriate circumstances, to interrupt the airborne transmission of influenza by ultraviolet (UV) air disinfection. These lines of evidence are: (a) that influenza is airborne; (b) that UV irradiation of the upper air of a room can provide safe and effective disinfection of air in the lower part of the room; and (c) that epidemic spread of airborne viral infections in humans can be prevented if the population under consideration remains in the UV-protected environment

  3. Epidemic Intelligence. Langmuir and the Birth of Disease Surveillance

    OpenAIRE

    Lyle Fearnley

    2010-01-01

    In the wake of the SARS and influenza epidemics of the past decade, one public health solution has become a refrain: surveillance systems for detection of disease outbreaks. This paper is an effort to understand how disease surveillance for outbreak detection gained such paramount rationality in contemporary public health. The epidemiologist Alexander Langmuir is well known as the creator of modern disease surveillance. But less well known is how he imagined disease surveillance as one part o...

  4. Development and Regulation of Novel Influenza Virus Vaccines: A United States Young Scientist Perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khurana, Surender

    2018-04-27

    Vaccination against influenza is the most effective approach for reducing influenza morbidity and mortality. However, influenza vaccines are unique among all licensed vaccines as they are updated and administered annually to antigenically match the vaccine strains and currently circulating influenza strains. Vaccine efficacy of each selected influenza virus vaccine varies depending on the antigenic match between circulating strains and vaccine strains, as well as the age and health status of the vaccine recipient. Low vaccine effectiveness of seasonal influenza vaccines in recent years provides an impetus to improve current seasonal influenza vaccines, and for development of next-generation influenza vaccines that can provide broader, long-lasting protection against both matching and antigenically diverse influenza strains. This review discusses a perspective on some of the issues and formidable challenges facing the development and regulation of the next-generation influenza vaccines.

  5. Replication-Competent Influenza A and B Viruses Expressing a Fluorescent Dynamic Timer Protein for In Vitro and In Vivo Studies.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael Breen

    Full Text Available Influenza A and B viruses (IAV and IBV, respectively cause annual seasonal human respiratory disease epidemics. In addition, IAVs have been implicated in occasional pandemics with inordinate health and economic consequences. Studying influenza viruses in vitro or in vivo requires the use of laborious secondary methodologies to identify infected cells. To circumvent this requirement, replication-competent infectious influenza viruses expressing an easily traceable fluorescent reporter protein can be used. Timer is a fluorescent protein that undergoes a time-dependent color emission conversion from green to red. The rate of spectral change is independent of Timer protein concentration and can be used to chronologically measure the duration of its expression. Here, we describe the generation of replication-competent IAV and IBV where the viral non-structural protein 1 (NS1 was fused to the fluorescent dynamic Timer protein. Timer-expressing IAV and IBV displayed similar plaque phenotypes and growth kinetics to wild-type viruses in tissue culture. Within infected cells, Timer's spectral shift can be used to measure the rate and cell-to-cell spread of infection using fluorescent microscopy, plate readers, or flow cytometry. The progression of Timer-expressing IAV infection was also evaluated in a mouse model, demonstrating the feasibility to characterize IAV cell-to-cell infections in vivo. By providing the ability to chronologically track viral spread, Timer-expressing influenza viruses are an excellent option to evaluate the in vitro and in vivo dynamics of viral infection.

  6. Health Newscasts for Increasing Influenza Vaccination Coverage: An Inductive Reasoning Game Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Breban, Romulus

    2011-01-01

    Both pandemic and seasonal influenza are receiving more attention from mass media than ever before. Topics such as epidemic severity and vaccination are changing the way in which we perceive the utility of disease prevention. Voluntary influenza vaccination has been recently modeled using inductive reasoning games. It has thus been found that severe epidemics may occur because individuals do not vaccinate and, instead, attempt to benefit from the immunity of their peers. Such epidemics could be prevented by voluntary vaccination if incentives were offered. However, a key assumption has been that individuals make vaccination decisions based on whether there was an epidemic each influenza season; no other epidemiological information is available to them. In this work, we relax this assumption and investigate the consequences of making more informed vaccination decisions while no incentives are offered. We obtain three major results. First, individuals will not cooperate enough to constantly prevent influenza epidemics through voluntary vaccination no matter how much they learned about influenza epidemiology. Second, broadcasting epidemiological information richer than whether an epidemic occurred may stabilize the vaccination coverage and suppress severe influenza epidemics. Third, the stable vaccination coverage follows the trend of the perceived benefit of vaccination. However, increasing the amount of epidemiological information released to the public may either increase or decrease the perceived benefit of vaccination. We discuss three scenarios where individuals know, in addition to whether there was an epidemic, (i) the incidence, (ii) the vaccination coverage and (iii) both the incidence and the vaccination coverage, every influenza season. We show that broadcasting both the incidence and the vaccination coverage could yield either better or worse vaccination coverage than broadcasting each piece of information on its own. PMID:22205944

  7. Health newscasts for increasing influenza vaccination coverage: an inductive reasoning game approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Breban, Romulus

    2011-01-01

    Both pandemic and seasonal influenza are receiving more attention from mass media than ever before. Topics such as epidemic severity and vaccination are changing the way in which we perceive the utility of disease prevention. Voluntary influenza vaccination has been recently modeled using inductive reasoning games. It has thus been found that severe epidemics may occur because individuals do not vaccinate and, instead, attempt to benefit from the immunity of their peers. Such epidemics could be prevented by voluntary vaccination if incentives were offered. However, a key assumption has been that individuals make vaccination decisions based on whether there was an epidemic each influenza season; no other epidemiological information is available to them. In this work, we relax this assumption and investigate the consequences of making more informed vaccination decisions while no incentives are offered. We obtain three major results. First, individuals will not cooperate enough to constantly prevent influenza epidemics through voluntary vaccination no matter how much they learned about influenza epidemiology. Second, broadcasting epidemiological information richer than whether an epidemic occurred may stabilize the vaccination coverage and suppress severe influenza epidemics. Third, the stable vaccination coverage follows the trend of the perceived benefit of vaccination. However, increasing the amount of epidemiological information released to the public may either increase or decrease the perceived benefit of vaccination. We discuss three scenarios where individuals know, in addition to whether there was an epidemic, (i) the incidence, (ii) the vaccination coverage and (iii) both the incidence and the vaccination coverage, every influenza season. We show that broadcasting both the incidence and the vaccination coverage could yield either better or worse vaccination coverage than broadcasting each piece of information on its own.

  8. Influenza A and B Virus Intertypic Reassortment through Compatible Viral Packaging Signals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, Steven F.; Nogales, Aitor; Finch, Courtney; Tuffy, Kevin M.; Domm, William; Perez, Daniel R.; Topham, David J.

    2014-01-01

    ABSTRACT Influenza A and B viruses cocirculate in humans and together cause disease and seasonal epidemics. These two types of influenza viruses are evolutionarily divergent, and exchange of genetic segments inside coinfected cells occurs frequently within types but never between influenza A and B viruses. Possible mechanisms inhibiting the intertypic reassortment of genetic segments could be due to incompatible protein functions of segment homologs, a lack of processing of heterotypic segments by influenza virus RNA-dependent RNA polymerase, an inhibitory effect of viral proteins on heterotypic virus function, or an inability to specifically incorporate heterotypic segments into budding virions. Here, we demonstrate that the full-length hemagglutinin (HA) of prototype influenza B viruses can complement the function of multiple influenza A viruses. We show that viral noncoding regions were sufficient to drive gene expression for either type A or B influenza virus with its cognate or heterotypic polymerase. The native influenza B virus HA segment could not be incorporated into influenza A virus virions. However, by adding the influenza A virus packaging signals to full-length influenza B virus glycoproteins, we rescued influenza A viruses that possessed HA, NA, or both HA and NA of influenza B virus. Furthermore, we show that, similar to single-cycle infectious influenza A virus, influenza B virus cannot incorporate heterotypic transgenes due to packaging signal incompatibilities. Altogether, these results demonstrate that the lack of influenza A and B virus reassortants can be attributed at least in part to incompatibilities in the virus-specific packaging signals required for effective segment incorporation into nascent virions. IMPORTANCE Reassortment of influenza A or B viruses provides an evolutionary strategy leading to unique genotypes, which can spawn influenza A viruses with pandemic potential. However, the mechanism preventing intertypic reassortment or

  9. The Burden of Influenza-Associated Hospitalizations in Oman, January 2008-June 2013.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al-Awaidy, Salah; Hamid, Sarah; Al Obaidani, Idris; Al Baqlani, Said; Al Busaidi, Suleiman; Bawikar, Shyam; El-Shoubary, Waleed; Dueger, Erica L; Said, Mayar M; Elamin, Emdeldin; Shah, Parag; Talaat, Maha

    2015-01-01

    Acute respiratory infections (ARI), including influenza, comprise a leading cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. Influenza surveillance provides important information to inform policy on influenza control and vaccination. While the epidemiology of influenza has been well characterized in western countries, few data exist on influenza epidemiology in the Eastern Mediterranean Region. We describe the epidemiology of influenza virus in Oman. Using syndromic case definitions and protocols, patients from four regional hospitals in Oman were enrolled in a descriptive prospective study to characterize the burden of severe acute respiratory infections (SARI) and influenza. Eligible patients provided demographic information as well as oropharyngeal (OP) and nasopharyngeal (NP) swabs. Specimens were tested for influenza A and influenza B; influenza A viruses were subtyped using RT-PCR. From January 2008 through June 2013, a total of 5,147 cases were enrolled and tested for influenza. Influenza strains were detected in 8% of cases for whom samples were available. Annual incidence rates ranged from 0.5 to 15.4 cases of influenza-associated SARI per 100,000 population. The median age of influenza patients was 6 years with children 0-2 years accounting for 34% of all influenza-associated hospitalizations. By contrast, the median age of non-influenza SARI cases was 1 year with children 0-2 years comprising 59% of SARI. Compared to non-influenza SARI cases, a greater proportion of influenza cases had pre-existing chronic conditions and underwent ventilation during hospitalization. Influenza virus is associated with a substantial proportion of SARI in Oman. Influenza in Oman approximately follows northern hemisphere seasonality, with major peaks in October to December and a lesser peak around April. The burden of influenza was greatest in children and the elderly. Future efforts should examine the burden of influenza in other potential risk groups such as pregnant women to

  10. Influenza vaccine strategies for solid organ transplant recipients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hirzel, Cédric; Kumar, Deepali

    2018-05-15

    The aim of this study was to highlight recent evidence on important aspects of influenza vaccination in solid organ transplant recipients. Influenza vaccine is the most evaluated vaccine in transplant recipients. The immunogenicity of the vaccine is suboptimal after transplantation. Newer formulations such as inactivated unadjuvanted high-dose influenza vaccine and the administration of a booster dose within the same season have shown to increase response rates. Intradermal vaccination and adjuvanted vaccines did not show clear benefit over standard influenza vaccines. Recent studies in transplant recipients do not suggest a higher risk for allograft rejection, neither after vaccination with a standard influenza vaccine nor after the administration of nonstandard formulation (high-dose, adjuvanted vaccines), routes (intradermally) or a booster dose. Nevertheless, influenza vaccine coverage in transplant recipients is still unsatisfactory low, potentially due to misinterpretation of risks and benefits. Annual influenza vaccination is well tolerated and is an important part of long-term care of solid organ transplant recipients.

  11. Safety of influenza vaccination in children with allergic diseases

    OpenAIRE

    Yang, Hyeon-Jong

    2015-01-01

    Global guidelines strongly recommend annual influenza vaccination in people age 6 months and older, particularly in asthmatic children. There is no doubt about the benefit of influenza vaccination in asthmatic children. However, some of the vaccine's components may elicit an IgE mediated hypersensitivity or disease exacerbation, including life-threatening events, in children with allergic diseases. As a result, concerns regarding the safety of the vaccine still continue today. The influenza v...

  12. Demographic and spatiotemporal patterns of avian influenza infection at the continental scale, and in relation to annual life cycle of a migratory host

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nallar, Rodolfo; Papp, Zsuzsanna; Epp, Tasha; Leighton, Frederick A.; Swafford, Seth R.; DeLiberto, Thomas J.; Dusek, Robert J.; Ip, Hon S.; Hall, Jeffrey S.; Berhane, Yohannes; Gibbs, Samantha E.J.; Soos, Catherine

    2015-01-01

    Since the spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 in the eastern hemisphere, numerous surveillance programs and studies have been undertaken to detect the occurrence, distribution, or spread of avian influenza viruses (AIV) in wild bird populations worldwide. To identify demographic determinants and spatiotemporal patterns of AIV infection in long distance migratory waterfowl in North America, we fitted generalized linear models with binominal distribution to analyze results from 13,574 blue-winged teal (Anas discors, BWTE) sampled in 2007 to 2010 year round during AIV surveillance programs in Canada and the United States. Our analyses revealed that during late summer staging (July-August) and fall migration (September-October), hatch year (HY) birds were more likely to be infected than after hatch year (AHY) birds, however there was no difference between age categories for the remainder of the year (winter, spring migration, and breeding period), likely due to maturing immune systems and newly acquired immunity of HY birds. Probability of infection increased non-linearly with latitude, and was highest in late summer prior to fall migration when densities of birds and the proportion of susceptible HY birds in the population are highest. Birds in the Central and Mississippi flyways were more likely to be infected compared to those in the Atlantic flyway. Seasonal cycles and spatial variation of AIV infection were largely driven by the dynamics of AIV infection in HY birds, which had more prominent cycles and spatial variation in infection compared to AHY birds. Our results demonstrate demographic as well as seasonal, latitudinal and flyway trends across Canada and the US, while illustrating the importance of migratory host life cycle and age in driving cyclical patterns of prevalence.

  13. Percepción de competencias en epidemiología en México y Colombia durante la epidemia de influenza A (H1N1) entre estudiantes de salud pública Perception of epidemiological competencies by public health students in Mexico and Colombia during the influenza A (H1N1) epidemic

    OpenAIRE

    Alvaro J Idrovo; Julián A Fernández-Niño; Ietza Bojórquez-Chapela; Myriam Ruiz-Rodríguez; Carlos A Agudelo; Oscar E Pacheco; Néstor Buitrago; Gustavo Nigenda

    2011-01-01

    OBJETIVO: Conocer la percepción que los estudiantes de salud pública en México y en Colombia tuvieron sobre el manejo de la epidemia de influenza A (H1N1), como una forma para indagar qué contenidos curriculares pueden ser mejorados en la formación en epidemiología. MÉTODOS: Encuesta durante la epidemia, entre junio y agosto de 2009, a estudiantes de posgrado. Se evaluaron las 30 competencias epidemiológicas del Council of State and Territorial Epidemiologists para "epidemiólogos intermedios"...

  14. History of Swine influenza viruses in Asia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Huachen; Webby, Richard; Lam, Tommy T Y; Smith, David K; Peiris, Joseph S M; Guan, Yi

    2013-01-01

    The pig is one of the main hosts of influenza A viruses and plays important roles in shaping the current influenza ecology. The occurrence of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic influenza virus demonstrated that pigs could independently facilitate the genesis of a pandemic influenza strain. Genetic analyses revealed that this virus was derived by reassortment between at least two parent swine influenza viruses (SIV), from the northern American triple reassortant H1N2 (TR) and European avian-like H1N1 (EA) lineages. The movement of live pigs between different continents and subsequent virus establishment are preconditions for such a reassortment event to occur. Asia, especially China, has the largest human and pig populations in the world, and seems to be the only region frequently importing pigs from other continents. Virological surveillance revealed that not only classical swine H1N1 (CS), and human-origin H3N2 viruses circulated, but all of the EA, TR and their reassortant variants were introduced into and co-circulated in pigs in this region. Understanding the long-term evolution and history of SIV in Asia would provide insights into the emergence of influenza viruses with epidemic potential in swine and humans.

  15. I costi dell’influenza in Italia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Lucioni

    2001-03-01

    Full Text Available The influenza is an acute viral infection that strikes respiratory tract and its diffusion is characteristic of epidemic and pandemic reoccurence. Globally the influenza represents, for the entity of its social impact (measurable in terms of morbility, hospitalization and mortality, a heavy healt care problem. In Italy the estimated incidence is 10-15%: the influenza is the third death cause for infectiuos disease, after AIDS and tubercolosis. This study is based on the Studio 606, the first italian study that allow us to pass from the presumptive phase to the observational one. The Studio 606 has been projected and realized by the Società Italiana di Medicina Generale (SIMG, involving about 200 general practitioners (MMG in two sample region, Lombardia and Puglia. The study has been developed between December the 15th, 1998 and March the 15th, 1999. The influenza causes especially indirect costs: most of people affected with influenza doesn’t go to work for about five days and these absences create an average cost per capita of £558.000. This indirect cost represents 87% of total average cost of one single influenza event.

  16. Network information analysis reveals risk perception transmission in a behaviour-influenza dynamics system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liao, C-M; You, S-H; Cheng, Y-H

    2015-01-01

    Influenza poses a significant public health burden worldwide. Understanding how and to what extent people would change their behaviour in response to influenza outbreaks is critical for formulating public health policies. We incorporated the information-theoretic framework into a behaviour-influenza (BI) transmission dynamics system in order to understand the effects of individual behavioural change on influenza epidemics. We showed that information transmission of risk perception played a crucial role in the spread of health-seeking behaviour throughout influenza epidemics. Here a network BI model provides a new approach for understanding the risk perception spread and human behavioural change during disease outbreaks. Our study allows simultaneous consideration of epidemiological, psychological, and social factors as predictors of individual perception rates in behaviour-disease transmission systems. We suggest that a monitoring system with precise information on risk perception should be constructed to effectively promote health behaviours in preparation for emerging disease outbreaks.

  17. [Pandemic influenza A (H1N1 virus) on Futuna Island in the Pacific, from August to September 2009].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chenaitia, Hichem; Massa, Horace; Garry, Philippe; Puget, André; Yvon, Jean-Francois; Dutaut, Elisabeth; Bessereau, Jacques; Michelet, Pierre; Auffray, Jean-Pierre; Delmont, Jean

    2011-03-01

    The aim of this study is to report the observation of the pandemic of influenza A (H1N1 virus) from August to September 2009 on the island of Futuna, in a context of isolated island that may mimic an environment closed. We conducted a prospective observational study of influenza-like illness, from the first confirmed case of influenza A on the island until the end of the epidemic wave. From August 15 to September 20, 2009, 1536 cases of influenza syndrome were identified. The estimate of the overall clinical attack rate was 36 %. The evolution of the epidemic shows an explosion of new cases of influenza A and subsequently a rapid decline of the epidemic. The spread of the infection was made by contiguity, jumping from one city to another. The cumulative number of cases by age group shows that the majority of cases were children and young adults under the age of 20 years. The most frequent symptoms were cough, rhinorrhea, headache, myalgia or asthenia, and fever. This study, despite these limitations, shows an explosive epidemic of influenza A, which can be explained by the circulation of virus that has been fostered by gatherings of public and closed environment. Age group classification shows that majority of cases were young, in contrast to seasonal influenza, but the symptoms were alike. This study highlights the difficulties to manage an epidemic surveillance system at high level and given the quick spread of the disease. Copyright © 2010. Published by Elsevier Masson SAS.

  18. Influenza infection in the intensive care unit: Four years after the 2009 pandemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pérez-Carrasco, Marcos; Lagunes, Leonel; Antón, Andrés; Gattarello, Simone; Laborda, César; Pumarola, Tomás; Rello, Jordi

    2016-03-01

    The role of influenza viruses in severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) in Intensive Care Units (ICU) remains unknown. The post-pandemic influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 period, in particular, has been poorly studied. To identify influenza SARI patients in ICU, to assess the usefulness of the symptoms of influenza-like illness (ILI), and to compare the features of pandemic vs. post-pandemic influenza A(H1N1) pdm09 infection. A prospective observational study with SARI patients admitted to ICU during the first three post-pandemic seasons. Patient demographics, characteristics and outcomes were recorded. An influenza epidemic period (IEP) was defined as >100 cases/100,000 inhabitants per week. One hundred sixty-three patients were diagnosed with SARI. ILI was present in 65 (39.9%) patients. Influenza infection was documented in 41 patients, 27 (41.5%) ILI patients, and 14 (14.3%) non-ILI patients, 27 of them during an IEP. Influenza A viruses were mainly responsible. Only five patients had influenza B virus infection, which were non-ILI during an IEP. SARI overall mortality was 22.1%, and 15% in influenza infection patients. Pandemic and post-pandemic influenza infection patients shared similar clinical features. During influenza epidemic periods, influenza infection screening should be considered in all SARI patients. Influenza SARI was mainly caused by subtype A(H1N1)pdm09 and A(H3N2) in post-pandemic seasons, and no differences were observed in ILI and mortality rate compared with a pandemic season. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier España, S.L.U. y Sociedad Española de Enfermedades Infecciosas y Microbiología Clínica. All rights reserved.

  19. Free-grazing ducks and highly pathogenic avian influenza, Thailand

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gilbert, Marius; Chaitaweesup, P.; Parakamawongsa, T.; Premashthira, S.; Tiensin, T.; Kalpravidh, W.; Wagner, H.; Slingenbergh, J.

    Thailand has recently had 3 epidemic waves of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI); virus was again detected in July 2005. Risk factors need to be identified to better understand disease ecology and assist HPAI surveillance and detection. This study analyzed the spatial distribution of HPAI

  20. Classical Swine Fever and Avian Influenza epidemcis: Lessons learned

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Elbers, A.R.; Loeffen, W.L.A.; Koch, G.

    2012-01-01

    This publication is based on a talk which was held in the course of the spring symposium „Impfen statt Keulen“ of the Akademie für Tiergesundheit (AfT) 2011 in Wiesbaden-Naurod. Experience with recent large-scale epidemics of Classical Swine Fever and Avian Influenza – among others in the

  1. Morbidity, Mortality, and Seasonality of Influenza Hospitalizations in Egypt, November 2007-November 2014

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kandeel, Amr; Labib, Manal; Said, Mayar; El-Refai, Samir; El-Gohari, Amani; Talaat, Maha

    2016-01-01

    Background Influenza typically comprises a substantial portion of acute respiratory infections, a leading cause of mortality worldwide. However, influenza epidemiology data are lacking in Egypt. We describe seven years of Egypt’s influenza hospitalizations from a multi-site influenza surveillance system. Methods Syndromic case definitions identified individuals with severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) admitted to eight hospitals in Egypt. Standardized demographic and clinical data were collected. Nasopharyngeal and oropharyngeal swabs were tested for influenza using real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction and typed as influenza A or B, and influenza A specimens subtyped. Results From November 2007–November 2014, 2,936/17,441 (17%) SARI cases were influenza-positive. Influenza-positive patients were more likely to be older, female, pregnant, and have chronic condition(s) (all p<0.05). Among them, 53 (2%) died, and death was associated with older age, five or more days from symptom onset to hospitalization, chronic condition(s), and influenza A (all p<0.05). An annual seasonal influenza pattern occurred from July–June. Each season, the proportion of the season’s influenza-positive cases peaked during November–May (19–41%). Conclusions In Egypt, influenza causes considerable morbidity and mortality and influenza SARI hospitalization patterns mirror those of the Northern Hemisphere. Additional assessment of influenza epidemiology in Egypt may better guide disease control activities and vaccine policy. PMID:27607330

  2. Morbidity, Mortality, and Seasonality of Influenza Hospitalizations in Egypt, November 2007-November 2014.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amr Kandeel

    Full Text Available Influenza typically comprises a substantial portion of acute respiratory infections, a leading cause of mortality worldwide. However, influenza epidemiology data are lacking in Egypt. We describe seven years of Egypt's influenza hospitalizations from a multi-site influenza surveillance system.Syndromic case definitions identified individuals with severe acute respiratory infection (SARI admitted to eight hospitals in Egypt. Standardized demographic and clinical data were collected. Nasopharyngeal and oropharyngeal swabs were tested for influenza using real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction and typed as influenza A or B, and influenza A specimens subtyped.From November 2007-November 2014, 2,936/17,441 (17% SARI cases were influenza-positive. Influenza-positive patients were more likely to be older, female, pregnant, and have chronic condition(s (all p<0.05. Among them, 53 (2% died, and death was associated with older age, five or more days from symptom onset to hospitalization, chronic condition(s, and influenza A (all p<0.05. An annual seasonal influenza pattern occurred from July-June. Each season, the proportion of the season's influenza-positive cases peaked during November-May (19-41%.In Egypt, influenza causes considerable morbidity and mortality and influenza SARI hospitalization patterns mirror those of the Northern Hemisphere. Additional assessment of influenza epidemiology in Egypt may better guide disease control activities and vaccine policy.

  3. Chimeric Hemagglutinin Constructs Induce Broad Protection against Influenza B Virus Challenge in the Mouse Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ermler, Megan E; Kirkpatrick, Ericka; Sun, Weina; Hai, Rong; Amanat, Fatima; Chromikova, Veronika; Palese, Peter; Krammer, Florian

    2017-06-15

    Seasonal influenza virus epidemics represent a significant public health burden. Approximately 25% of all influenza virus infections are caused by type B viruses, and these infections can be severe, especially in children. Current influenza virus vaccines are an effective prophylaxis against infection but are impacted by rapid antigenic drift, which can lead to mismatches between vaccine strains and circulating strains. Here, we describe a broadly protective vaccine candidate based on chimeric hemagglutinins, consisting of globular head domains from exotic influenza A viruses and stalk domains from influenza B viruses. Sequential vaccination with these constructs in mice leads to the induction of broadly reactive antibodies that bind to the conserved stalk domain of influenza B virus hemagglutinin. Vaccinated mice are protected from lethal challenge with diverse influenza B viruses. Results from serum transfer experiments and antibody-dependent cell-mediated cytotoxicity (ADCC) assays indicate that this protection is antibody mediated and based on Fc effector functions. The present data suggest that chimeric hemagglutinin-based vaccination is a viable strategy to broadly protect against influenza B virus infection. IMPORTANCE While current influenza virus vaccines are effective, they are affected by mismatches between vaccine strains and circulating strains. Furthermore, the antiviral drug oseltamivir is less effective for treating influenza B virus infections than for treating influenza A virus infections. A vaccine that induces broad and long-lasting protection against influenza B viruses is therefore urgently needed. Copyright © 2017 American Society for Microbiology.

  4. Rationing of resources: ethical issues in disasters and epidemic situations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Janet Y; Anderson-Shaw, Lisa

    2009-01-01

    In an epidemic situation or large-scale disaster, medical and human resources may be stretched to the point of exhaustion. Appropriate planning must incorporate plans of action that minimize public health morbidity and mortality while maximizing the appropriate use of medical and human healthcare resources. While the current novel H1N1 influenza has spread throughout the world, the severity of this strain of influenza appears to be relatively less virulent and lethal compared to the 1918 influenza pandemic. However, the presence of this new influenza strain has reignited interest in pandemic planning. Amongst other necessary resources needed to combat pandemic influenza, a major medical resource concern is the limited number of mechanical ventilators that would be available to be used to treat ill patients. Recent reported cases of avian influenza suggest that mechanical ventilation will be required for the successful recovery of many individuals ill with this strain of virus. However, should the need for ventilators exceed the number of available machines, how will care providers make the difficult ethical decisions as to who should be placed or who should remain on these machines as more influenza patients arrive in need of care? This paper presents a decision-making model for clinicians that is based upon the bioethical principles of beneficence and justice. The model begins with the basic assumptions of triage and progresses into a useful algorithm based upon utilitarian principles. The model is intended to be used as a guide for clinicians in making decisions about the allocation of scarce resources in a just manner and to serve as an impetus for institutions to create or adapt plans to address resource allocation issues should the need arise.

  5. Numerous cerebral hemorrhages in a patient with influenza-associated encephalitis: A case report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Ji Ye; Seong, Su Ok; Park, Noh Hyuck; Park, Chan Sup [Dept. of Radiology, Myongji Hospital, Goyang (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-02-15

    Influenza-associated encephalitis (IAE) is a complication of a common disease that is rare even during an epidemic. Awareness of magnetic resonance imaging features of IAE is important in treatment planning and prognosis estimation. Several reports have described necrotizing encephalopathy in children with influenza. However, few reports have described multifocal hemorrhages in both cerebral hemispheres in adults with concomitant infection with influenza A and B. Here, we describe a case of influenza A- and B-associated encephalitis accompanied by numerous cerebral hemorrhages.

  6. A simple and rapid characterization of influenza virus isolates by monoclonal antibodies in radioimmunoassay

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kostolansky, F.; Styk, B.; Russ, G.

    1986-01-01

    Radioimmunoassay is described with infectious allantoic fluid directly bound to solid phase, suitable for the detection and further characterization of influenza virus isolates. This simple and rapid method was applied for the description of isolates obtained from different regions of Czechoslovakia during the influenza epidemic in 1983. The results confirmed that all 13 examined isolates represented influenza A viruses possessing H3 subtype haemagglutinin very similar to haemagglutinin of influenza viruses A/Bangkok/1/79 (H3N2), A/Belgium/2/81 (H3N2) and A/Philippines/2/82 (H3N2). (author)

  7. Configuring the autism epidemic

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Seeberg, Jens; Christensen, Fie Lund Lindegaard

    2017-01-01

    Autism has been described as an epidemic, but this claim is contested and may point to an awareness epidemic, i.e. changes in the definition of what autism is and more attention being invested in diagnosis leading to a rise in registered cases. The sex ratio of children diagnosed with autism...... is skewed in favour of boys, and girls with autism tend to be diagnosed much later than boys. Building and further developing the notion of ‘configuration’ of epidemics, this article explores the configuration of autism in Denmark, with a particular focus on the health system and social support to families...... with children diagnosed with autism, seen from a parental perspective. The article points to diagnostic dynamics that contribute to explaining why girls with autism are not diagnosed as easily as boys. We unfold these dynamics through the analysis of a case of a Danish family with autism....

  8. Detecting signals of seasonal influenza severity through age dynamics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lee, Elizabeth C.; Viboud, Cécile; Simonsen, Lone

    2015-01-01

    stages of an outbreak. To address the limitations of traditional indicators, we propose a novel severity index based on influenza age dynamics estimated from routine physician diagnosis data that can be used retrospectively and for early warning. METHODS: We developed a quantitative 'ground truth......' severity benchmark that synthesizes multiple traditional severity indicators from publicly available influenza surveillance data in the United States. Observing that the age distribution of cases may signal severity early in an epidemic, we constructed novel retrospective and early warning severity indexes....... The retrospective index was well correlated with the severity benchmark and correctly identified the two most severe seasons. The early warning index performance varied, but it projected 2007-08 as relatively severe 10 weeks prior to the epidemic peak. Influenza severity varied significantly among states within...

  9. Mid-Season Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness Estimates for the 2016-2017 Influenza Season (Open Access Publisher’s Version)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-08-01

    VE) and findings are shared annually at the Food and Drug Administration’s advisory committee meet- ing on U.S. influenza vaccine strain selec- tion...Aeromedical Services Information Manage - ment System) and self-report from patient questionnaires. Individuals were consid- ered vaccinated if they received...surveillance are used to estimate midseason influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) and findings are shared annually at the Food and Drug

  10. Epidemic Intelligence. Langmuir and the Birth of Disease Surveillance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lyle Fearnley

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available In the wake of the SARS and influenza epidemics of the past decade, one public health solution has become a refrain: surveillance systems for detection of disease outbreaks. This paper is an effort to understand how disease surveillance for outbreak detection gained such paramount rationality in contemporary public health. The epidemiologist Alexander Langmuir is well known as the creator of modern disease surveillance. But less well known is how he imagined disease surveillance as one part of what he called “epidemic intelligence.” Langmuir developed the practice of disease surveillance during an unprecedented moment in which the threat of biological warfare brought civil defense experts and epidemiologists together around a common problem. In this paper, I describe how Langmuir navigated this world, experimenting with new techniques and rationales of epidemic control. Ultimately, I argue, Langmuir′s experiments resulted in a set of techniques and infrastructures – a system of epidemic intelligence – that transformed the epidemic as an object of human art.

  11. Influenza seasonality in Madagascar: the mysterious African free-runner.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alonso, Wladimir Jimenez; Guillebaud, Julia; Viboud, Cecile; Razanajatovo, Norosoa Harline; Orelle, Arnaud; Zhou, Steven Zhixiang; Randrianasolo, Laurence; Heraud, Jean-Michel

    2015-05-01

    The seasonal drivers of influenza activity remain debated in tropical settings where epidemics are not clearly phased. Antananarivo is a particularly interesting case study because it is in Madagascar, an island situated in the tropics and with quantifiable connectivity levels to other countries. We aimed at disentangling the role of environmental forcing and population fluxes on influenza seasonality in Madagascar. We compiled weekly counts of laboratory-confirmed influenza-positive specimens for the period 2002 to 2012 collected in Antananarivo, with data available from sub-Saharan countries and countries contributing most foreign travelers to Madagascar. Daily climate indicators were compiled for the study period. Overall, influenza activity detected in Antananarivo predated that identified in temperate Northern Hemisphere locations. This activity presented poor temporal matching with viral activity in other countries from the African continent or countries highly connected to Madagascar excepted for A(H1N1)pdm09. Influenza detection in Antananarivo was not associated with travel activity and, although it was positively correlated with all climatic variables studied, such association was weak. The timing of influenza activity in Antananarivo is irregular, is not driven by climate, and does not align with that of countries in geographic proximity or highly connected to Madagascar. This work opens fresh questions regarding the drivers of influenza seasonality globally particularly in mid-latitude and less-connected regions to tailor vaccine strategies locally. © 2015 The Authors. Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  12. Global HIV/AIDS Epidemic

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Policy The Global HIV/AIDS Epidemic The Global HIV/AIDS Epidemic Published: Nov 29, 2017 Facebook Twitter ... 2001-FY 2018 Request The Global Response to HIV/AIDS International efforts to combat HIV began in ...

  13. Networked SIS Epidemics With Awareness

    KAUST Repository

    Paarporn, Keith; Eksin, Ceyhun; Weitz, Joshua S.; Shamma, Jeff S.

    2017-01-01

    We study a susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic process over a static contact network where the nodes have partial information about the epidemic state. They react by limiting their interactions with their neighbors when they believe

  14. epidemic teach us?

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    frequently brings shame, fear and guilt: dealing with this for some will begin a process of .... 'AZT treatment will have a limited effect on the epidemic, as we are targeting ... others to make the decisions that control my life. It is ironic that a society ...

  15. The Obesity Epidemic

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2011-07-18

    Learn about obesity and the community initiatives taking place to prevent and reduce this epidemic.  Created: 7/18/2011 by National Center for Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion, Division of Nutrition, Physical Activity and Obesity.   Date Released: 7/18/2011.

  16. Kanpur epidemic: Time course

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    The first peak was related to water contamination which began in December 1990. The second peak was related to failure of municipal authorities to chlorinate water during the 2nd week of February 1991. The epidemic came under control quickly after water contamination was controlled, providing confirmation for role of ...

  17. Trauma - the malignant epidemic

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    national problem and the term 'malignant epidemic' is more applicable. These two ... In 1984 it stood at just over 400 000 per annum and today the figure is close to ... breadwinner, loss of productivity, expenses of rehabilitation and care of the ...

  18. Cyber Epidemic Models with Dependences

    OpenAIRE

    Xu, Maochao; Da, Gaofeng; Xu, Shouhuai

    2016-01-01

    Studying models of cyber epidemics over arbitrary complex networks can deepen our understanding of cyber security from a whole-system perspective. In this paper, we initiate the investigation of cyber epidemic models that accommodate the {\\em dependences} between the cyber attack events. Due to the notorious difficulty in dealing with such dependences, essentially all existing cyber epidemic models have assumed them away. Specifically, we introduce the idea of Copulas into cyber epidemic mode...

  19. Pandemisk influenza

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Nina Blom; Almlund, Pernille

    danske myndigheder kommunikerede åbent og løbende om influenza-krisen og dens trusler. Indsatsen blev anerkendt fra alle sider og førte på intet tidspunkt til alvorlig og længerevarende kritik af myndighederne. Der var tale om en tilfredsstillende krisehåndtering, hvad angår den del, der fokuserede på...... kommunikation om denne tog en drejning i forhold til selve influenza-krisen. Myndighedernes kommunikation blev mere uklar, forvirringen voksede i befolkningen, og der blev rejst kritik i offentligheden. Forløbet rejser spørgsmålene om, den samlede håndtering af kommunikationsindsatsen kunne have været mere...

  20. Avian influenza

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    EFSA Panel on Animal Health and Welfare; More, Simon; Bicout, Dominique

    2017-01-01

    Previous introductions of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIV) to the EU were most likely via migratory wild birds. A mathematical model has been developed which indicated that virus amplification and spread may take place when wild bird populations of sufficient size within EU become ...... of implementing specific biosecurity measures on reducing the probability of AIV entering into a poultry holding. Human diligence is pivotal to select, implement and maintain specific, effective biosecurity measures....

  1. [Epidemics and diseases during the Independence period in Mexico].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Viesca-Treviño, Carlos

    2010-01-01

    The epidemics and endemic diseases in Mexico were not a problem before the Independence period. Hunger was less than in the past. The 1806 Influenza epidemics had been forgotten. Measles was considered a benign illness. In 1810, there was an increase in the number of cases of black vomit in Veracruz. Sixty percent of 541 hospitalized patients die of the disease. In 1812, an outbreak of yellow fever spread from Veracruz to Jalapa accompanying the movement of troops and killing over 300 soldiers of the Castilla's Battalion. The appearance of petechial fever, maybe typhus marketed in 1813 the onset of the most important epidemics. The preceding was the indirect effect of war: diseases of prisons and military quarters which became overwhelming in times where the movements of troops and of important groups of populations along with crowing, loss homes, hunger and bad hygiene habits. There was also Influenza or "pestilent cold." Measures of detection and quarantine were taken. "Naranjate" mixed with tartaric cremor was used against fever. Fumigation with nitric acid and burners, where they incinerated gun powder were among the health protection policies. It is noteworthy the advance and relief provided by the introduction of smallpox vaccine, the only preventive mean useful against smallpox which was a breakthrough in public health.

  2. On the Use of Human Mobility Proxies for Modeling Epidemics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tizzoni, Michele; Bajardi, Paolo; Decuyper, Adeline; Kon Kam King, Guillaume; Schneider, Christian M.; Blondel, Vincent; Smoreda, Zbigniew; González, Marta C.; Colizza, Vittoria

    2014-01-01

    Human mobility is a key component of large-scale spatial-transmission models of infectious diseases. Correctly modeling and quantifying human mobility is critical for improving epidemic control, but may be hindered by data incompleteness or unavailability. Here we explore the opportunity of using proxies for individual mobility to describe commuting flows and predict the diffusion of an influenza-like-illness epidemic. We consider three European countries and the corresponding commuting networks at different resolution scales, obtained from (i) official census surveys, (ii) proxy mobility data extracted from mobile phone call records, and (iii) the radiation model calibrated with census data. Metapopulation models defined on these countries and integrating the different mobility layers are compared in terms of epidemic observables. We show that commuting networks from mobile phone data capture the empirical commuting patterns well, accounting for more than 87% of the total fluxes. The distributions of commuting fluxes per link from mobile phones and census sources are similar and highly correlated, however a systematic overestimation of commuting traffic in the mobile phone data is observed. This leads to epidemics that spread faster than on census commuting networks, once the mobile phone commuting network is considered in the epidemic model, however preserving to a high degree the order of infection of newly affected locations. Proxies' calibration affects the arrival times' agreement across different models, and the observed topological and traffic discrepancies among mobility sources alter the resulting epidemic invasion patterns. Results also suggest that proxies perform differently in approximating commuting patterns for disease spread at different resolution scales, with the radiation model showing higher accuracy than mobile phone data when the seed is central in the network, the opposite being observed for peripheral locations. Proxies should therefore be

  3. Hepatitis E epidemics in India

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    The first well recorded epidemic was in 1955-56 here in Delhi with nearly 30000 cases. Large outbreaks occurred in 1978 in Kashmir. My interest in this disease began in 1991 during investigations into a large epidemic of hepatitis E in Kanpur that my mentor, later Prof SR Naik, and I undertook. I will use this epidemic as an ...

  4. The spatial resolution of epidemic peaks.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Harriet L Mills

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available The emergence of novel respiratory pathogens can challenge the capacity of key health care resources, such as intensive care units, that are constrained to serve only specific geographical populations. An ability to predict the magnitude and timing of peak incidence at the scale of a single large population would help to accurately assess the value of interventions designed to reduce that peak. However, current disease-dynamic theory does not provide a clear understanding of the relationship between: epidemic trajectories at the scale of interest (e.g. city; population mobility; and higher resolution spatial effects (e.g. transmission within small neighbourhoods. Here, we used a spatially-explicit stochastic meta-population model of arbitrary spatial resolution to determine the effect of resolution on model-derived epidemic trajectories. We simulated an influenza-like pathogen spreading across theoretical and actual population densities and varied our assumptions about mobility using Latin-Hypercube sampling. Even though, by design, cumulative attack rates were the same for all resolutions and mobilities, peak incidences were different. Clear thresholds existed for all tested populations, such that models with resolutions lower than the threshold substantially overestimated population-wide peak incidence. The effect of resolution was most important in populations which were of lower density and lower mobility. With the expectation of accurate spatial incidence datasets in the near future, our objective was to provide a framework for how to use these data correctly in a spatial meta-population model. Our results suggest that there is a fundamental spatial resolution for any pathogen-population pair. If underlying interactions between pathogens and spatially heterogeneous populations are represented at this resolution or higher, accurate predictions of peak incidence for city-scale epidemics are feasible.

  5. Burden of medically attended influenza infection and cases averted by vaccination — United States, 2013/14 through 2015/16 influenza seasons

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jackson, Michael L.; Phillips, C. Hallie; Benoit, Joyce; Jackson, Lisa A.; Gaglani, Manjusha; Murthy, Kempapura; McLean, Huong Q.; Belongia, Edward A.; Malosh, Ryan; Zimmerman, Richard; Flannery, Brendan

    2018-01-01

    Background In addition to preventing hospitalizations and deaths due to influenza, influenza vaccination programs can reduce the burden of outpatient visits for influenza. We estimated the incidence of medically-attended influenza at three geographically diverse sites in the United States, and the cases averted by vaccination, for the 2013/14 through 2015/16 influenza seasons. Methods We defined surveillance populations at three sites from the United States Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness Network. Among these populations, we identified outpatient visits laboratory-confirmed influenza via active surveillance, and identified all outpatient visits for acute respiratory illness from healthcare databases. We extrapolated the total number of outpatient visits for influenza from the proportion of surveillance visits with a positive influenza test. We combined estimates of incidence, vaccine coverage, and vaccine effectiveness to estimate outpatient visits averted by vaccination. Results Across the three sites and seasons, incidence of medically attended influenza ranged from 14 to 54 per 1,000 population. Incidence was highest in children aged 6 months to 9 years (33 to 70 per 1,000) and lowest in adults aged 18-49 years (21 to 27 per 1,000). Cases averted ranged from 9 per 1,000 vaccinees (Washington, 2014/15) to 28 per 1,000 (Wisconsin, 2013/14). Discussion Seasonal influenza epidemics cause a considerable burden of outpatient medical visits. The United States influenza vaccination program has caused meaningful reductions in outpatient visits for influenza, even in years when the vaccine is not well-matched to the dominant circulating influenza strain. PMID:29249545

  6. The new school absentees reporting system for pandemic influenza A/H1N1 2009 infection in Japan.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Takeshi Suzue

    Full Text Available To evaluate the new Japanese School Absentees Reporting System for Infectious Disease (SARSID for pandemic influenza A/H1N1 2009 infection in comparison with the National epidemiological Surveillance of Infectious Disease (NESID.We used data of 53,223 students (97.7% in Takamatsu city Japan. Data regarding school absentees in SARSID was compared with that in NESID from Oct 13, 2009 to Jan 12, 2010.Similar trends were observed both in SARSID and NESID. However, the epidemic trend for influenza in SARSID was thought to be more sensitive than that in NESID.The epidemic trend for influenza among school-aged children could be easily and rapidly assessed by SARSID compared to NESID. SARSID might be useful for detecting the epidemic trend of influenza.

  7. INFLUENZA IMMUNISATION IN HIV-INFECTED PERSONS

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    in 1997' (surpassing the 6O'lb vaccine coverage goal for the country's Healthy People 2000 Project). ... (i) are HIV-infected persons at special risk for influenza complications and is annual immunisation .... virus type' 1 rep :cation can be increased in peripheral 0100d of sero- positive patiems aher influenrc. vacdnation.

  8. Epidemics on interconnected networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dickison, Mark; Havlin, S.; Stanley, H. E.

    2012-06-01

    Populations are seldom completely isolated from their environment. Individuals in a particular geographic or social region may be considered a distinct network due to strong local ties but will also interact with individuals in other networks. We study the susceptible-infected-recovered process on interconnected network systems and find two distinct regimes. In strongly coupled network systems, epidemics occur simultaneously across the entire system at a critical infection strength βc, below which the disease does not spread. In contrast, in weakly coupled network systems, a mixed phase exists below βc of the coupled network system, where an epidemic occurs in one network but does not spread to the coupled network. We derive an expression for the network and disease parameters that allow this mixed phase and verify it numerically. Public health implications of communities comprising these two classes of network systems are also mentioned.

  9. The threat of pandemic influenza: are we ready? : workshop summary

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Knobler, Stacey

    2005-01-01

    .... Moreover, recent problems with the availability and strain-specificity of vaccine for annual flu epidemics in some countries and the rise of pandemic strains of avian flu in disparate geographic...

  10. (Epidemic of bacillary dysentery)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Auger, P.; Pouliot, B.; De Grace, M.; Milot, C.; Lafortune, M.; Bergeron, Z.

    1981-10-01

    An outbreak of bacillary dysentery in 1978 affecting 928 persons, most of whom were living in the village of St-Jacques, PQ, is described. An epidemiologic study suggested the water supply as the source of the infection, and it was established that the water carried by the municipal aqueduct was contaminated by feces containing the causal agent, Shigella sonnei. This epidemic, the largest mentioned in he Canadian medical literature, demonstrates how contagious this infection is.

  11. Epidemic spread in coupled populations with seasonally varying migration rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muzyczyn, Adam; Shaw, Leah B.

    2009-03-01

    The H5N1 strain of avian influenza has spread worldwide, and this spread may be due to seasonal migration of birds and mixing of birds from different regions in the wintering grounds. We studied a multipatch model for avian influenza with seasonally varying migration rates. The bird population was divided into two spatially distinct patches, or subpopulations. Within each patch, the disease followed the SIR (susceptible-infected-recovered) model for epidemic spread. Migration rates were varied periodically, with a net flux toward the breeding grounds during the spring and towards the wintering grounds during the fall. The case of two symmetric patches reduced to single-patch SIR dynamics. However, asymmetry in the birth and contact rates in the breeding grounds and wintering grounds led to bifurcations to longer period orbits and chaotic dynamics. We studied the bifurcation structure of the model and the phase relationships between outbreaks in the two patches.

  12. Segurança, imunogenicidade e eficácia da vacina contra o vírus influenza em crianças Safety, immunogenicity and efficacy of influenza vaccine in children

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Otávio A. L. Cintra

    2006-07-01

    search of the medical literature indexed on MEDLINE, LILACS and in the Cochrane Library. Review articles, clinical trials and epidemiological studies published from 1990 to 2006 were selected for analysis. SUMMARY OF THE FINDINGS: Influenza is an infectious disease that is both universal and seasonal, with incidence in all age groups and annual epidemics characterized by excessive morbidity and mortality. The elderly and people with comorbidity are high risk groups for severe influenza. It has recently been proven that healthy infants suffer similar morbidity to other risk groups, and therefore vaccination against influenza is indicated for them too, as being the most effective means of preventing infection by the influenza virus. The safety of influenza vaccines in children appears adequate, with the most often observed adverse effects being local reactions or fever. Immunogenicity in children varies from 30 to 90%, being directly proportional to age. Efficacy depends on the primary objective and can range from levels comparable with placebo to up to 91% efficacy against confirmed influenza A infection. Schoolchildren play an important role in the dissemination of the influenza virus, and population studies have demonstrated herd immunity. CONCLUSIONS: Trivalent influenza vaccines, whether inactivated or attenuated, have low reactogenicity and offer variable immunogenicity and efficacy in children. Vaccination is effective for prevention of infections by the influenza virus and for reducing morbidity. More powerful studies of efficacy and safety in infants are still required.

  13. The influence of meteorology on the spread of influenza: survival analysis of an equine influenza (A/H3N8) outbreak.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Firestone, Simon M; Cogger, Naomi; Ward, Michael P; Toribio, Jenny-Ann L M L; Moloney, Barbara J; Dhand, Navneet K

    2012-01-01

    The influences of relative humidity and ambient temperature on the transmission of influenza A viruses have recently been established under controlled laboratory conditions. The interplay of meteorological factors during an actual influenza epidemic is less clear, and research into the contribution of wind to epidemic spread is scarce. By applying geostatistics and survival analysis to data from a large outbreak of equine influenza (A/H3N8), we quantified the association between hazard of infection and air temperature, relative humidity, rainfall, and wind velocity, whilst controlling for premises-level covariates. The pattern of disease spread in space and time was described using extraction mapping and instantaneous hazard curves. Meteorological conditions at each premises location were estimated by kriging daily meteorological data and analysed as time-lagged time-varying predictors using generalised Cox regression. Meteorological covariates time-lagged by three days were strongly associated with hazard of influenza infection, corresponding closely with the incubation period of equine influenza. Hazard of equine influenza infection was higher when relative humidity was 30 km hour(-1) from the direction of nearby infected premises were associated with increased hazard of infection. Through combining detailed influenza outbreak and meteorological data, we provide empirical evidence for the underlying environmental mechanisms that influenced the local spread of an outbreak of influenza A. Our analysis supports, and extends, the findings of studies into influenza A transmission conducted under laboratory conditions. The relationships described are of direct importance for managing disease risk during influenza outbreaks in horses, and more generally, advance our understanding of the transmission of influenza A viruses under field conditions.

  14. Seasonality of absolute humidity explains seasonality of influenza-like illness in Vietnam.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thai, Pham Quang; Choisy, Marc; Duong, Tran Nhu; Thiem, Vu Dinh; Yen, Nguyen Thu; Hien, Nguyen Tran; Weiss, Daniel J; Boni, Maciej F; Horby, Peter

    2015-12-01

    Experimental and ecological studies have shown the role of climatic factors in driving the epidemiology of influenza. In particular, low absolute humidity (AH) has been shown to increase influenza virus transmissibility and has been identified to explain the onset of epidemics in temperate regions. Here, we aim to study the potential climatic drivers of influenza-like illness (ILI) epidemiology in Vietnam, a tropical country characterized by a high diversity of climates. We specifically focus on quantifying and explaining the seasonality of ILI. We used 18 years (1993-2010) of monthly ILI notifications aggregated by province (52) and monthly climatic variables (minimum, mean, maximum temperatures, absolute and relative humidities, rainfall and hours of sunshine) from 67 weather stations across Vietnam. Seasonalities were quantified from global wavelet spectra, using the value of the power at the period of 1 year as a measure of the intensity of seasonality. The 7 climatic time series were characterized by 534 summary statistics which were entered into a regression tree to identify factors associated with the seasonality of AH. Results were extrapolated to the global scale using simulated climatic times series from the NCEP/NCAR project. The intensity of ILI seasonality in Vietnam is best explained by the intensity of AH seasonality. We find that ILI seasonality is weak in provinces experiencing weak seasonal fluctuations in AH (annual power power >17.6). In Vietnam, AH and ILI are positively correlated. Our results identify a role for AH in driving the epidemiology of ILI in a tropical setting. However, in contrast to temperate regions, high rather than low AH is associated with increased ILI activity. Fluctuation in AH may be the climate factor that underlies and unifies the seasonality of ILI in both temperate and tropical regions. Alternatively, the mechanism of action of AH on disease transmission may be different in cold-dry versus hot-humid settings

  15. Understanding the epidemic of HIV in South Africa

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    the worst HIV epidemics in Africa. The lack of ... The data collected by the Department of Health through their annual ... Epidemiology Research Unit, PO Box 30606, Braamfontein, 2017. Brian Williams. ... socio-economic conditions. In the Western Cape, ... differs significantly from the mean value, which is 12.0 months (11.3 ...

  16. Gnarled-trunk evolutionary model of influenza A virus hemagglutinin.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kimihito Ito

    Full Text Available Human influenza A viruses undergo antigenic changes with gradual accumulation of amino acid substitutions on the hemagglutinin (HA molecule. A strong antigenic mismatch between vaccine and epidemic strains often requires the replacement of influenza vaccines worldwide. To establish a practical model enabling us to predict the future direction of the influenza virus evolution, relative distances of amino acid sequences among past epidemic strains were analyzed by multidimensional scaling (MDS. We found that human influenza viruses have evolved along a gnarled evolutionary pathway with an approximately constant curvature in the MDS-constructed 3D space. The gnarled pathway indicated that evolution on the trunk favored multiple substitutions at the same amino acid positions on HA. The constant curvature was reasonably explained by assuming that the rate of amino acid substitutions varied from one position to another according to a gamma distribution. Furthermore, we utilized the estimated parameters of the gamma distribution to predict the amino acid substitutions on HA in subsequent years. Retrospective prediction tests for 12 years from 1997 to 2009 showed that 70% of actual amino acid substitutions were correctly predicted, and that 45% of predicted amino acid substitutions have been actually observed. Although it remains unsolved how to predict the exact timing of antigenic changes, the present results suggest that our model may have the potential to recognize emerging epidemic strains.

  17. Human mobility and the spatial transmission of influenza in the United States

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Charu, Vivek; Zeger, Scott; Gog, Julia

    2017-01-01

    Seasonal influenza epidemics offer unique opportunities to study the invasion and re-invasion waves of a pathogen in a partially immune population. Detailed patterns of spread remain elusive, however, due to lack of granular disease data. Here we model high-volume city-level medical claims data...... and human mobility proxies to explore the drivers of influenza spread in the US during 2002–2010. Although the speed and pathways of spread varied across seasons, seven of eight epidemics likely originated in the Southern US. Each epidemic was associated with 1–5 early long-range transmission events, half...... of which sparked onward transmission. Gravity model estimates indicate a sharp decay in influenza transmission with the distance between infectious and susceptible cities, consistent with spread dominated by work commutes rather than air traffic. Two early-onset seasons associated with antigenic novelty...

  18. Reasons for non-vaccination: Parental vaccine hesitancy and the childhood influenza vaccination school pilot programme in England.

    OpenAIRE

    Paterson, P; Chantler, T; Larson, HJ

    2017-01-01

    In 2013, the annual influenza immunisation programme in England was extended to children to reduce the burden of influenza, but uptake was sub-optimal at 53.2%. To explore the reasons some parents decided not to vaccinate their child against influenza as part of the pilot programme offered in schools. Cross-sectional qualitative study conducted between February and July 2015. 913 parents whose children were not vaccinated against influenza in the school pilots in West Yorkshire and Greater Ma...

  19. Social deprivation and burden of influenza: Testing hypotheses and gaining insights from a simulation model for the spread of influenza

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ayaz Hyder

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Factors associated with the burden of influenza among vulnerable populations have mainly been identified using statistical methodologies. Complex simulation models provide mechanistic explanations, in terms of spatial heterogeneity and contact rates, while controlling other factors and may be used to better understand statistical patterns and, ultimately, design optimal population-level interventions. We extended a sophisticated simulation model, which was applied to forecast epidemics and validated for predictive ability, to identify mechanisms for the empirical relationship between social deprivation and the burden of influenza. Our modeled scenarios and associated epidemic metrics systematically assessed whether neighborhood composition and/or spatial arrangement could qualitatively replicate this empirical relationship. We further used the model to determine consequences of local-scale heterogeneities on larger scale disease spread. Our findings indicated that both neighborhood composition and spatial arrangement were critical to qualitatively match the empirical relationship of interest. Also, when social deprivation was fully included in the model, we observed lower age-based attack rates and greater delay in epidemic peak week in the most socially deprived neighborhoods. Insights from simulation models complement current understandings from statistical-based association studies. Additional insights from our study are: (1 heterogeneous spatial arrangement of neighborhoods is a necessary condition for simulating observed disparities in the burden of influenza and (2 unmeasured factors may lead to a better quantitative match between simulated and observed rate ratio in the burden of influenza between the most and least socially deprived populations.

  20. "It's as bad as anything can be": Patients, identity, and the influenza pandemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bristow, Nancy K

    2010-04-01

    Americans were stunned when pandemic influenza hit the United States in 1918. Recent advances in bacteriology and public health allowed Americans to imagine a future free of infectious disease, even as their familiarity with influenza tempered their fears of it. They soon realized this influenza was something unprecedented, as it shocked them with its pace, virulence, mortality patterns, and symptoms. Patients endured and frequently succumbed to a miserable illness, their suffering often made worse by the chaotic circumstances the epidemic produced in families and communities and shaped in significant and sometimes discriminatory ways by their gender, class, and race. While the nation's public culture soon forgot the epidemic, it lived on in lives changed irrevocably by its consequences. As they face present and future influenza pandemics, Americans can learn from this earlier experience, guarding against identity-based discrimination and acknowledging and remembering the grief and loss fellow citizens suffered.

  1. Genetic Reassortment Among the Influenza Viruses (Avian Influenza, Human Influenza and Swine Influenza in Pigs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dyah Ayu Hewajuli

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Influenza A virus is a hazardous virus and harm to respiratory tract. The virus infect birds, pigs, horses, dogs, mammals and humans. Pigs are important hosts in ecology of the influenza virus because they have two receptors, namely NeuAc 2,3Gal and NeuAc 2,6Gal which make the pigs are sensitive to infection of influenza virus from birds and humans and genetic reassortment can be occurred. Classical swine influenza H1N1 viruses had been circulated in pigs in North America and other countries for 80 years. In 1998, triple reassortant H3N2 swine influenza viruses that contains genes of human influenza A virus (H3N2, swine influenza virus (H1N1 and avian influenza are reported as cause an outbreaks in pigs in North America. Furthermore, the circulation of triple reassortant H3N2 swine influenza virus resulting reassortant H1N1 swine influenza and reassortant H1N2 swine influenza viruses cause infection in humans. Humans who were infected by triple reassortant swine influenza A virus (H1N1 usually made direct contact with pigs. Although without any clinical symptoms, pigs that are infected by triple reassortant swine influenza A (H1N1 can transmit infection to the humans around them. In June 2009, WHO declared that pandemic influenza of reassortant H1N1 influenza A virus (novel H1N1 has reached phase 6. In Indonesia until 2009, there were 1005 people were infected by H1N1 influenza A and 5 of them died. Novel H1N1 and H5N1 viruses have been circulated in humans and pigs in Indonesia. H5N1 reassortant and H1N1 viruses or the seasonal flu may could arise because of genetic reassortment between avian influenza and humans influenza viruses that infect pigs together.

  2. Estimating burden of influenza-associated influenza-like illness and severe acute respiratory infection at public healthcare facilities in Romania during the 2011/12-2015/16 influenza seasons.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gefenaite, Giedre; Pistol, Adriana; Popescu, Rodica; Popovici, Odette; Ciurea, Daniel; Dolk, Christiaan; Jit, Mark; Gross, Diane

    2018-01-01

    Influenza is responsible for substantial morbidity and mortality, but there is limited information on reliable disease burden estimates, especially from middle-income countries in the WHO European Region. To estimate the incidence of medically attended influenza-associated influenza-like illness (ILI) and hospitalizations due to severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) presenting to public healthcare facilities in Romania. Sentinel influenza surveillance data for ILI and SARI from 2011/12-2015/16, including virological data, were used to estimate influenza-associated ILI and SARI incidence/100 000 and their 95% confidence intervals (95% CI). The overall annual incidence of ILI and influenza-associated ILI per 100 000 persons in Romania varied between 68 (95% CI: 61-76) and 318 (95% CI: 298-338) and between 23 (95% CI: 19-29) and 189 (95% CI: 149-240), respectively. The highest ILI and influenza incidence was among children aged 0-4 years. We estimated that SARI incidence per 100 000 persons was 6 (95% CI: 5-7) to 9 (95% CI: 8-10), of which 2 (95% CI: 1-2) to 3 (95% CI: 2-4) were due to influenza. Up to 0.3% of the Romanian population were annually reported with ILI, and 0.01% was hospitalized with SARI, of which as much as one-third could be explained by influenza. This evaluation was the first study estimating influenza burden in Romania. We found that during each influenza season, a substantial number of persons in Romania suffer from influenza-related ILI or are hospitalized due to influenza-associated SARI. © 2017 The World Health Organization. Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  3. siRNA for Influenza Therapy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sailen Barik

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available Influenza virus is one of the most prevalent and ancient infections in humans. About a fifth of world's population is infected by influenza virus annually, leading to high morbidity and mortality, particularly in infants, the elderly and the immunocompromised. In the US alone, influenza outbreaks lead to roughly 30,000 deaths each year. Current vaccines and anti-influenza drugs are of limited use due to high mutation rate of the virus and side effects. In recent years, RNA interference, triggered by synthetic short interfering RNA (siRNA, has rapidly evolved as a potent antiviral regimen. Properly designed siRNAs have been shown to function as potent inhibitors of influenza virus replication. The siRNAs outperform traditional small molecule antivirals in a number of areas, such as ease of design, modest cost, and fast turnaround. Although specificity and tissue delivery remain major bottlenecks in the clinical applications of RNAi in general, intranasal application of siRNA against respiratory viruses including, but not limited to influenza virus, has experienced significant success and optimism, which is reviewed here.

  4. siRNA for Influenza Therapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barik, Sailen

    2010-07-01

    Influenza virus is one of the most prevalent and ancient infections in humans. About a fifth of world's population is infected by influenza virus annually, leading to high morbidity and mortality, particularly in infants, the elderly and the immunocompromised. In the US alone, influenza outbreaks lead to roughly 30,000 deaths each year. Current vaccines and anti-influenza drugs are of limited use due to high mutation rate of the virus and side effects. In recent years, RNA interference, triggered by synthetic short interfering RNA (siRNA), has rapidly evolved as a potent antiviral regimen. Properly designed siRNAs have been shown to function as potent inhibitors of influenza virus replication. The siRNAs outperform traditional small molecule antivirals in a number of areas, such as ease of design, modest cost, and fast turnaround. Although specificity and tissue delivery remain major bottlenecks in the clinical applications of RNAi in general, intranasal application of siRNA against respiratory viruses including, but not limited to influenza virus, has experienced significant success and optimism, which is reviewed here.

  5. Public health interventions for epidemics: implications for multiple infection waves.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wessel, Lindsay; Hua, Yi; Wu, Jianhong; Moghadas, Seyed M

    2011-02-25

    Epidemics with multiple infection waves have been documented for some human diseases, most notably during past influenza pandemics. While pathogen evolution, co-infection, and behavioural changes have been proposed as possible mechanisms for the occurrence of subsequent outbreaks, the effect of public health interventions remains undetermined. We develop mean-field and stochastic epidemiological models for disease transmission, and perform simulations to show how control measures, such as drug treatment and isolation of ill individuals, can influence the epidemic profile and generate sequences of infection waves with different characteristics. We demonstrate the impact of parameters representing the effectiveness and adverse consequences of intervention measures, such as treatment and emergence of drug resistance, on the spread of a pathogen in the population. If pathogen resistant strains evolve under drug pressure, multiple outbreaks are possible with variability in their characteristics, magnitude, and timing. In this context, the level of drug use and isolation capacity play an important role in the occurrence of subsequent outbreaks. Our simulations for influenza infection as a case study indicate that the intensive use of these interventions during the early stages of the epidemic could delay the spread of disease, but it may also result in later infection waves with possibly larger magnitudes. The findings highlight the importance of intervention parameters in the process of public health decision-making, and in evaluating control measures when facing substantial uncertainty regarding the epidemiological characteristics of an emerging infectious pathogen. Critical factors that influence population health including evolutionary responses of the pathogen under the pressure of different intervention measures during an epidemic should be considered for the design of effective strategies that address short-term targets compatible with long-term disease outcomes.

  6. Trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine effective against influenza A(H3N2) variant viruses in children during the 2014/15 season, Japan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sugaya, Norio; Shinjoh, Masayoshi; Kawakami, Chiharu; Yamaguchi, Yoshio; Yoshida, Makoto; Baba, Hiroaki; Ishikawa, Mayumi; Kono, Mio; Sekiguchi, Shinichiro; Kimiya, Takahisa; Mitamura, Keiko; Fujino, Motoko; Komiyama, Osamu; Yoshida, Naoko; Tsunematsu, Kenichiro; Narabayashi, Atsushi; Nakata, Yuji; Sato, Akihiro; Taguchi, Nobuhiko; Fujita, Hisayo; Toki, Machiko; Myokai, Michiko; Ookawara, Ichiro; Takahashi, Takao

    2016-01-01

    The 2014/15 influenza season in Japan was characterised by predominant influenza A(H3N2) activity; 99% of influenza A viruses detected were A(H3N2). Subclade 3C.2a viruses were the major epidemic A(H3N2) viruses, and were genetically distinct from A/New York/39/2012(H3N2) of 2014/15 vaccine strain in Japan, which was classified as clade 3C.1. We assessed vaccine effectiveness (VE) of inactivated influenza vaccine (IIV) in children aged 6 months to 15 years by test-negative case–control design based on influenza rapid diagnostic test. Between November 2014 and March 2015, a total of 3,752 children were enrolled: 1,633 tested positive for influenza A and 42 for influenza B, and 2,077 tested negative. Adjusted VE was 38% (95% confidence intervals (CI): 28 to 46) against influenza virus infection overall, 37% (95% CI: 27 to 45) against influenza A, and 47% (95% CI: -2 to 73) against influenza B. However, IIV was not statistically significantly effective against influenza A in infants aged 6 to 11 months or adolescents aged 13 to 15 years. VE in preventing hospitalisation for influenza A infection was 55% (95% CI: 42 to 64). Trivalent IIV that included A/New York/39/2012(H3N2) was effective against drifted influenza A(H3N2) virus, although vaccine mismatch resulted in low VE. PMID:27784529

  7. Effectiveness of 2010/2011 seasonal influenza vaccine in Ireland.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Barret, A S

    2012-02-01

    We conducted a case-control study to estimate the 2010\\/2011 trivalent influenza vaccine effectiveness (TIVE) using the Irish general practitioners\\' influenza sentinel surveillance scheme. Cases were influenza-like illness (ILI) patients with laboratory-confirmed influenza. Controls were ILI patients who tested negative for influenza. Participating sentinel general practitioners (GP) collected swabs from patients presenting with ILI along with their vaccination history and other individual characteristics. The TIVE was computed as (1 - odds ratiofor vaccination) x100%. Of 60 sentinel GP practices, 22 expressed interest in participating in the study and 17 (28%) recruited at least one ILI patient. In the analysis, we included 106 cases and 85 controls. Seven controls (8.2%) and one influenza case (0.9%) had been vaccinated in 2010\\/2011. The estimated TIVE against any influenza subtype was 89.4% [95% CI: 13.8; 99.8%], suggesting a protective effect against GP-attended laboratory confirmed influenza. This study design could be used to monitor influenza vaccine effectiveness annually but sample size and vaccination coverage should be increased to obtain precise and adjusted estimates.

  8. Epidemic as a natural process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koivu-Jolma, Mikko; Annila, Arto

    2018-05-01

    Mathematical epidemiology is a well-recognized discipline to model infectious diseases. It also provides guidance for public health officials to limit outbreaks. Nevertheless, epidemics take societies by surprise every now and then, for example, when the Ebola virus epidemic raged seemingly unrestrained in Western Africa. We provide insight to this capricious character of nature by describing the epidemic as a natural process, i.e., a phenomenon governed by thermodynamics. Our account, based on statistical mechanics of open systems, clarifies that it is impossible to predict accurately epidemic courses because everything depends on everything else. Nonetheless, the thermodynamic theory yields a comprehensive and analytical view of the epidemic. The tenet subsumes various processes in a scale-free manner from the molecular to the societal levels. The holistic view accentuates overarching procedures in arresting and eradicating epidemics. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Statins in influenza: time for a controlled clinical study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carrillo-Esper, Raúl

    2009-01-01

    Mexico recently experienced the impact of an influenza epidemic. This outbreak, the H1N1 strain, affected a large number of citizens and caused panic, economic instability and increased health care costs to the federal government and public and private institutions. Influenza outbreaks are periodic. They may or may not be seasonal, and severity of the disease is linked to host immunity and to the virus strain. In the event of a pandemic as happened in 1918, it is estimated that approximately 175-350 million people may die, and health systems would face a catastrophic situation due to the insufficiency of antivirals and vaccines, as well as affecting hospital infrastructure.

  10. Epidemics spread in heterogeneous populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Capała, Karol; Dybiec, Bartłomiej

    2017-05-01

    Individuals building populations are subject to variability. This variability affects progress of epidemic outbreaks, because individuals tend to be more or less resistant. Individuals also differ with respect to their recovery rate. Here, properties of the SIR model in inhomogeneous populations are studied. It is shown that a small change in model's parameters, e.g. recovery or infection rate, can substantially change properties of final states which is especially well-visible in distributions of the epidemic size. In addition to the epidemic size and radii distributions, the paper explores first passage time properties of epidemic outbreaks.

  11. Influenza vaccine effectiveness assessment through sentinel virological data in three post-pandemic seasons

    Science.gov (United States)

    Torner, Núria; Martínez, Ana; Basile, Luca; Marcos, M Angeles; Antón, Andrés; Mar Mosquera, M; Isanta, Ricard; Cabezas, Carmen; Jané, Mireia; Domínguez, Angela; Program of Catalonia, the PIDIRAC Sentinel Surveillance

    2014-01-01

    Influenza vaccination aims at reducing the incidence of serious disease, complications and death among those with the most risk of severe influenza disease. Influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) through sentinel surveillance data from the PIDIRAC program (Daily Acute Respiratory Infection Surveillance of Catalonia) during 2010–2011, 2011–2012, and 2012–2013 influenza seasons, with three different predominant circulating influenza virus (IV) types [A(H1N1)pdm09, A(H3N2) and B, respectively] was assessed. The total number of sentinel samples with known vaccination background collected during the study period was 3173, 14.7% of which had received the corresponding seasonal influenza vaccine. 1117 samples (35.2%) were positive for IV. A retrospective negative case control design was used to assess vaccine effectiveness (VE) for the entire period and for each epidemic influenza season. An overall VE of 58.1% (95% CI:46.8–67) was obtained. Differences in VE according to epidemic season were observed, being highest for the 2012–2013 season with predominance of IV type B (69.7% ;95% CI:51.5–81) and for the 2010–2011 season, with predominance of the A(H1N1)pdm09 influenza virus strain (67.2% ;95%CI:49.5–78.8) and lowest for the 2011–2012 season with A(H3N2) subtype predominance (34.2% ;95%CI:4.5–54.6). Influenza vaccination prevents a substantial number of influenza-associated illnesses. Although vaccines with increased effectiveness are needed and the search for a universal vaccine that is not subject to genetic modifications might increase VE, nowadays only the efforts to increase vaccination rates of high-risk population and healthcare personnel let reduce the burden of influenza and its complications. PMID:25483540

  12. Avian Influenza (Bird Flu)

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... type="submit" value="Submit" /> Archived Flu Emails Influenza Types Seasonal Avian Swine Variant Pandemic Other Information on Avian Influenza Language: English (US) Español Recommend on Facebook Tweet ...

  13. A qualitative study of the coverage of influenza vaccination on Dutch news sites and social media websites.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lehmann, Birthe A; Ruiter, Robert A C; Kok, Gerjo

    2013-06-05

    Information about influenza and the effectiveness of vaccination against influenza is largely available on the Internet, and may influence individual decision making about participation in future influenza vaccination rounds. E-health information has often been found to be inaccurate, or even to contradict Health Authority recommendations, especially when it concerns controversial topics. By means of an online media monitoring programme, Dutch news sites and social media websites were scanned for the Dutch counterparts of the terms influenza, vaccination, vaccine and epidemic during February, March and April 2012. Data were processed with QSR NVivo 8.0 and analysed using a general inductive approach. Three overarching themes were found in both media sources: (1) the (upcoming) influenza epidemic, (2) general information regarding the virus, its prevention and treatment, and (3) uncertainty and mistrust regarding influenza vaccination. Social media tended to report earlier on developments such as the occurrence of an influenza epidemic. The greatest difference was that in social media, influenza was not considered to be a serious disease, and more opposition to the flu shot was expressed in social media, as compared to news media. News media and social media discussed the same topics regarding influenza, but differed in message tone. Whereas news media reports tended to be more objective and non-judgmental, social media more critically evaluated the harmfulness of influenza and the necessity of the flu shot. Media may influence decision making and behaviours of Internet users and may thereby influence the success of vaccination campaigns and recommendations made by health authorities. Social media may be more of a problem in this sense, since it is neither controlled nor censored. Future research should investigate the actual impact of Internet media on the influenza decision making process of its users.

  14. Contact transmission of influenza virus between ferrets imposes a looser bottleneck than respiratory droplet transmission allowing propagation of antiviral resistance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frise, Rebecca; Bradley, Konrad; van Doremalen, Neeltje; Galiano, Monica; Elderfield, Ruth A.; Stilwell, Peter; Ashcroft, Jonathan W.; Fernandez-Alonso, Mirian; Miah, Shahjahan; Lackenby, Angie; Roberts, Kim L.; Donnelly, Christl A.; Barclay, Wendy S.

    2016-01-01

    Influenza viruses cause annual seasonal epidemics and occasional pandemics. It is important to elucidate the stringency of bottlenecks during transmission to shed light on mechanisms that underlie the evolution and propagation of antigenic drift, host range switching or drug resistance. The virus spreads between people by different routes, including through the air in droplets and aerosols, and by direct contact. By housing ferrets under different conditions, it is possible to mimic various routes of transmission. Here, we inoculated donor animals with a mixture of two viruses whose genomes differed by one or two reverse engineered synonymous mutations, and measured the transmission of the mixture to exposed sentinel animals. Transmission through the air imposed a tight bottleneck since most recipient animals became infected by only one virus. In contrast, a direct contact transmission chain propagated a mixture of viruses suggesting the dose transferred by this route was higher. From animals with a mixed infection of viruses that were resistant and sensitive to the antiviral drug oseltamivir, resistance was propagated through contact transmission but not by air. These data imply that transmission events with a looser bottleneck can propagate minority variants and may be an important route for influenza evolution. PMID:27430528

  15. Advances in influenza vaccination

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    L.A. Reperant (Leslie); G.F. Rimmelzwaan (Guus); A.D.M.E. Osterhaus (Albert)

    2014-01-01

    textabstractInfluenza virus infections yearly cause high morbidity and mortality burdens in humans, and the development of a new influenza pandemic continues to threaten mankind as a Damoclean sword. Influenza vaccines have been produced by using egg-based virus growth and passaging techniques that

  16. Bird Flu (Avian Influenza)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bird flu (avian influenza) Overview Bird flu is caused by a type of influenza virus that rarely infects humans. More than a ... for Disease Control and Prevention estimates that seasonal influenza is responsible for ... heat destroys avian viruses, cooked poultry isn't a health threat. ...

  17. Influenza hospitalization epidemiology from a severe acute respiratory infection surveillance system in Jordan, January 2008-February 2014.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al-Abdallat, Mohammad; Dawson, Patrick; Haddadin, Aktham Jeries; El-Shoubary, Waleed; Dueger, Erica; Al-Sanouri, Tarek; Said, Mayar M; Talaat, Maha

    2016-03-01

    Acute respiratory infections (ARIs) are a major cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. Influenza typically contributes substantially to the burden of ARI, but only limited data are available on influenza activity and seasonality in Jordan. Syndromic case definitions were used to identify individuals with severe acute respiratory infections (SARI) admitted to four sentinel hospitals in Jordan. Demographic and clinical data were collected. Nasopharyngeal and oropharyngeal swabs were tested for influenza using real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction and typed as influenza A or B, with influenza A further subtyped. From January 2008-February 2014, 2891 SARI cases were tested for influenza, and 257 (9%) were positive. While 73% of all SARI cases were under 5 years of age, only 57% of influenza-positive cases were under 5 years of age. Eight (3%) influenza-positive cases died. An annual seasonal pattern of influenza activity was observed. The proportion of influenza-positive cases peaked during November-January (14-42%) in the non-pandemic years. Influenza is associated with substantial morbidity and mortality in Jordan. The seasonal pattern of influenza aligns with known Northern Hemisphere seasonality. Further characterization of the clinical and financial burden of influenza in Jordan will be critical in supporting decisions regarding disease control activities. © 2015 The Authors. Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  18. Influenza and other respiratory viruses detected by influenza-like illness surveillance in Leyte Island, the Philippines, 2010-2013.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hirono Otomaru

    Full Text Available This study aimed to determine the role of influenza-like illness (ILI surveillance conducted on Leyte Island, the Philippines, including involvement of other respiratory viruses, from 2010 to 2013. ILI surveillance was conducted from January 2010 to March 2013 with 3 sentinel sites located in Tacloban city, Palo and Tanauan of Leyte Island. ILI was defined as fever ≥38°C or feverish feeling and either cough or running nose in a patient of any age. Influenza virus and other 5 respiratory viruses were searched. A total of 5,550 ILI cases visited the 3 sites and specimens were collected from 2,031 (36.6% cases. Among the cases sampled, 1,637 (75.6% were children aged <5 years. 874 (43.0% cases were positive for at least one of the respiratory viruses tested. Influenza virus and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV were predominantly detected (both were 25.7% followed by human rhinovirus (HRV (17.5%. The age distributions were significantly different between those who were positive for influenza, HRV, and RSV. ILI cases were reported throughout the year and influenza virus was co-detected with those viruses on approximately half of the weeks of study period (RSV in 60.5% and HRV 47.4%. In terms of clinical manifestations, only the rates of headache and sore throat were significantly higher in influenza positive cases than cases positive to other viruses. In conclusion, syndromic ILI surveillance in this area is difficult to detect the start of influenza epidemic without laboratory confirmation which requires huge resources. Age was an important factor that affected positive rates of influenza and other respiratory viruses. Involvement of older age children may be useful to detect influenza more effectively.

  19. Epidemic modeling in complex realities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colizza, Vittoria; Barthélemy, Marc; Barrat, Alain; Vespignani, Alessandro

    2007-04-01

    In our global world, the increasing complexity of social relations and transport infrastructures are key factors in the spread of epidemics. In recent years, the increasing availability of computer power has enabled both to obtain reliable data allowing one to quantify the complexity of the networks on which epidemics may propagate and to envision computational tools able to tackle the analysis of such propagation phenomena. These advances have put in evidence the limits of homogeneous assumptions and simple spatial diffusion approaches, and stimulated the inclusion of complex features and heterogeneities relevant in the description of epidemic diffusion. In this paper, we review recent progresses that integrate complex systems and networks analysis with epidemic modelling and focus on the impact of the various complex features of real systems on the dynamics of epidemic spreading.

  20. Epidemics after Natural Disasters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gayer, Michelle; Connolly, Maire A.

    2007-01-01

    The relationship between natural disasters and communicable diseases is frequently misconstrued. The risk for outbreaks is often presumed to be very high in the chaos that follows natural disasters, a fear likely derived from a perceived association between dead bodies and epidemics. However, the risk factors for outbreaks after disasters are associated primarily with population displacement. The availability of safe water and sanitation facilities, the degree of crowding, the underlying health status of the population, and the availability of healthcare services all interact within the context of the local disease ecology to influence the risk for communicable diseases and death in the affected population. We outline the risk factors for outbreaks after a disaster, review the communicable diseases likely to be important, and establish priorities to address communicable diseases in disaster settings. PMID:17370508

  1. The epidemic of methylisothiazolinone

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schwensen, Jakob F; Uter, Wolfgang; Bruze, Magnus

    2017-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The use of methylisothiazolinone (MI) in cosmetic products has caused an unprecedented epidemic of MI contact allergy. Current data concerning exposures at a European level are required. OBJECTIVES: To describe demographics and MI exposures for European patients with MI contact allergy....... METHODS: Eleven European dermatology departments from eight European countries prospectively collected data between 1 May and 31 October 2015 among consecutive patients who had positive patch test reactions to MI (2000 ppm aq.). RESULTS: A total of 6.0% (205/3434; range 2.6-13.0%) of patients had positive...... patch test reactions to MI. Dermatitis most frequently affected the hands (43.4%), face (32.7%), arms (14.6%), and eyelids (11.7%); 12.7% had widespread dermatitis. For 72.7% (149/205), MI contact allergy was currently relevant mainly because of exposure to cosmetic products (83.2%; 124...

  2. The ghost of pandemics past: revisiting two centuries of influenza in Sweden.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holmberg, Martin

    2017-09-01

    Previous influenza pandemics are usually invoked in pandemic preparedness planning without a thorough analysis of the events surrounding them, what has been called the 'configuration' of epidemics. Historic pandemics are instead used to contrast them to the novelty of the coming imagined plague or as fear of a ghost-like repetition of the past. This view of pandemics is guided by a biomedical framework that is ahistorical and reductionist. The meaning of 'pandemic' influenza is in fact highly ambiguous in its partitioning of pandemic and seasonal influenza. The past 200 years of influenza epidemics in Sweden are examined with a special focus on key social structures-households, schools, transportations and the military. These are shown to have influenced the progression of influenza pandemics. Prevailing beliefs around influenza pandemics have also profoundly influenced intervention strategies. Measuring long-term trends in pandemic severity is problematic because pandemics are non-linear events where the conditions surrounding them constantly change. However, in a linearised view, the Spanish flu can be seen to represent a historical turning point and the H1N1 2009 pandemic not as an outlier, but following a 100-year trend of decreasing severity. Integrating seasonal and pandemic influenza, and adopting an ecosocial stance can deepen our understanding and bring the ghost-like pandemic past to life. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

  3. Fatal Cases of Seasonal Influenza in Russia in 2015-2016.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ilyicheva, T; Durymanov, A; Susloparov, I; Kolosova, N; Goncharova, N; Svyatchenko, S; Petrova, O; Bondar, A; Mikheev, V; Ryzhikov, A

    2016-01-01

    The influenza epidemic in 2015-2016 in Russia is characterized by a sharp increase of influenza cases (beginning from the second week of 2016) with increased fatalities. Influenza was confirmed in 20 fatal cases registered among children (0-10 years), in 5 cases among pregnant women, and in 173 cases among elderly people (60 years and older). Two hundred and ninety nine people died from influenza were patients with some chronic problems. The overwhelming majority among the deceased (more than 98%) were not vaccinated against influenza. We isolated 109 influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 and one A(H3N2) virus strains from 501 autopsy material samples. The antigenic features of the strains were similar to the vaccine strains. A phylogenic analysis of hemagglutinin revealed that influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus strains belonged to 6B genetic group that had two main dominant subgroups during the 2015-2016 season. In Russia strains of the first group predominated. We registered an increased proportion of strains with D222G mutation in receptor-binding site. A herd immunity analysis carried out immediately prior to the epidemic showed that 34.4% blood sera samples collected in different regions of Russia were positive to A/California/07/09(H1N1)pdm09. We came to a conclusion that public awareness enhancement is necessary to reduce unreasonable refusals of vaccination.

  4. Matrix protein 2 of influenza A virus blocks autophagosome fusion with lysosomes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gannagé, Monique; Dormann, Dorothee; Albrecht, Randy

    2009-01-01

    Influenza A virus is an important human pathogen causing significant morbidity and mortality every year and threatening the human population with epidemics and pandemics. Therefore, it is important to understand the biology of this virus to develop strategies to control its pathogenicity. Here, we...... demonstrate that influenza A virus inhibits macroautophagy, a cellular process known to be manipulated by diverse pathogens. Influenza A virus infection causes accumulation of autophagosomes by blocking their fusion with lysosomes, and one viral protein, matrix protein 2, is necessary and sufficient...... for this inhibition of autophagosome degradation. Macroautophagy inhibition by matrix protein 2 compromises survival of influenza virus-infected cells but does not influence viral replication. We propose that influenza A virus, which also encodes proapoptotic proteins, is able to determine the death of its host cell...

  5. Is sunspot activity a factor in influenza pandemics?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qu, Jiangwen

    2016-09-01

    The 2009 AH1N1 pandemic became a global health concern, although fortunately, its worst anticipated effects were not realised. While the origins of such outbreaks remain poorly understood, it is very important to identify the precipitating factors in their emergence so that future pandemics can be detected as quickly as possible. Methords: Descriptive epidemiology was used to analyse the association between influenza pandemics and possible pandemics and relative number of sunspots. Non-conditional logistic regression was performed to analyse the statistical association between sunspot extremes and influenza pandemics to within plus or minus 1 year. Almost all recorded influenza/possible pandemics have occurred in time frames corresponding to sunspot extremes, or +/- 1 year within such extremes. These periods were identified as important risk factors in both possible and confirmed influenza pandemics (odds ratio: 3.87; 95% confidence interval: 1.08 to 13.85). Extremes of sunspot activity to within plus or minus 1 year may precipitate influenza pandemics. Mechanisms of epidemic initiation and early spread are discussed including primary causation by externally derived viral variants (from space via cometary dust). Efforts to construct a comprehensive early warning system for potential influenza and other viral pandemics that include analysis of sunspot activity and stratospheric sampling for viral variants should be supported. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  6. Effect of Weather Variability on Seasonal Influenza Among Different Age Groups in Queensland, Australia: A Bayesian Spatiotemporal Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Xiaodong; Mengersen, Kerrie; Milinovich, Gabriel; Hu, Wenbiao

    2017-06-01

    The effects of weather variability on seasonal influenza among different age groups remain unclear. The comparative study aims to explore the differences in the associations between weather variability and seasonal influenza, and growth rates of seasonal influenza epidemics among different age groups in Queensland, Australia. Three Bayesian spatiotemporal conditional autoregressive models were fitted at the postal area level to quantify the relationships between seasonal influenza and monthly minimum temperature (MIT), monthly vapor pressure, school calendar pattern, and Index of Relative Socio-Economic Advantage and Disadvantage for 3 age groups (Weather variability appears to be more influential on seasonal influenza transmission in younger (0-14) age groups. The growth rates of influenza at postal area level were relatively small for older (≥65) age groups in Queensland, Australia. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  7. [Burden of influenza virus type B and mismatch with the flu vaccine in Spain].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eiros-Bouza, Jose Ma; Pérez-Rubio, Alberto

    2015-02-01

    Since the 80s two lineages of type B viruses are co - circulating in the world. Antigenic differences between them are important and it leads to lack of cross-reactivity. The impact on the burden of disease due to influenza B virus, poor foresight in estimating which of the two lineages of B viruses circulate in the season, and the consequent lack of immunity in case of including the wrong strain make that the availability of the quadrivalent vaccine is very useful. The aim of this paper is to analyze the past influenza seasons in Spain to assess the burden of disease, divergence between the vaccine strain and the circulating B and viral characteristics associated with type B in each seasonal epidemic. Review of all reports issued by the Influenza Surveillance System in Spain since the 2003-2004 season to 2012-2013. Over the past influenza seasons, although type A was present mostly, circulation of influenza B virus in each season was observed, even being co - dominant in some of them. In a high number of seasons the divergence between the vaccine strain and the circulating strain lineage has been observed The protective effect of influenza vaccine has varied depending on the type / subtype of influenza virus studied. The vaccine effectiveness against influenza infection by influenza B virus has varied greatly depending on the season analyzed.

  8. Influenza A induced cellular signal transduction pathways

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michael, Paul; Brabant, Danielle; Bleiblo, Farag; Ramana, Chilakamarti V.; Rutherford, Michael; Khurana, Sandhya; Tai, T.C.; Kumar, Anand

    2013-01-01

    Influenza A is a negative sense single stranded RNA virus that belongs to the Orthomyxoviridae Family. This enveloped virus contains 8 segments of viral RNA which encodes 11 viral proteins. Influenza A infects humans and is the causative agent of the flu. Annually it infects approximately 5% to 15% of the population world wide and results in an estimated 250,000 to 500,000 deaths a year. The nature of influenza A replication results in a high mutation rate which results in the need for seasonal vaccinations. In addition the zoonotic nature of the influenza virus allows for recombination of viral segments from different strains creating new variants that have not been encountered before. This type of mutation is the method by which pandemic strains of the flu arises. Infection with influenza results in a respiratory illness that for most individuals is self limiting. However in susceptible populations which include individuals with pre-existing pulmonary or cardiac conditions, the very young and the elderly fatal complications may arise. The most serious of these is the development of viral pneumonia which may be accompanied by secondary bacterial infections. Progression of pneumonia leads to the development of acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), acute lung injury (ALI) and potentially respiratory failure. This progression is a combined effect of the host immune system response to influenza infection and the viral infection itself. This review will focus on molecular aspects of viral replication in alveolar cells and their response to infection. The response of select innate immune cells and their contribution to viral clearance and lung epithelial damage will also be discussed. Molecular aspects of antiviral response in the cells in particular the protein kinase RNA dependent response, and the oligoadenylate synthetase RNAse L system in relation to influenza infection. PMID:23977434

  9. Pacific region influenza surveillance for oseltamivir resistance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Heather B; Gose, Remedios B; Nagata, Mark T; Sciulli, Rebecca H; Whelen, A Christian

    2012-05-01

    Hawaii and the United States-affiliated Pacific islands (USAPI) host over 8 million travelers annually, most of whom originate in Asia, Australia, and the Americas where prevalence of oseltamivir resistance in 2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1) has been reported to be 2.5-3.5%. To survey a collection of samples from Hawaii and the USAPI that had tested positive for the 2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1) virus by RTI-PCR to assess whether antiviral resistance emerged in these island communities during the 2009 H1N1 pandemic. We examined RNA extracted from Hawaiian and USAPI cases for the neuraminidase H275Y mutation associated with oseltamivir resistance by pyrosequencing. Two hundred and sixty-three (263) 2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1) positive specimens were tested and 263/263 (100%) were shown to lack the mutation most commonly associated with oseltamivir resistance. There was no evidence of oseltamivir resistant A(H1N1)pdm09 virus during the 2009 pandemic in the Pacific islands despite considerable travel exposure. Geographic isolation, the lack of a "second wave" of pandemic influenza, judicious antiviral use, aggressive vaccination, and below average tourism due to the global economic crisis may have been contributing factors. Continued surveillance and vigilance is necessary to monitor unpredictable influenza activity. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  10. School-Located Influenza Vaccination and Absenteeism among Elementary School Students in a Hispanic Community

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keck, Patricia C.; Ynalvez, Marcus Antonius; Gonzalez, Hector F.; Castillo, Keila D.

    2013-01-01

    Seasonal influenza is recognized as a significant health burden to children and is a cause of excess school absenteeism in children. In 2008, the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices recommended annual influenza vaccination for all children 6 months to 18 years of age. School nurses influence participation in this recommendation by…

  11. Trends of influenza B during the 2010-2016 seasons in 2 regions of north and south Italy: The impact of the vaccine mismatch on influenza immunisation strategy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orsi, Andrea; Colomba, Giuseppina Maria Elena; Pojero, Fanny; Calamusa, Giuseppe; Alicino, Cristiano; Trucchi, Cecilia; Canepa, Paola; Ansaldi, Filippo; Vitale, Francesco; Tramuto, Fabio

    2018-03-04

    Influenza A and B viruses are responsible for respiratory infections, representing globally seasonal threats to human health. The 2 viral types often co-circulate and influenza B plays an important role in the spread of infection. A 6-year retrospective surveillance study was conducted between 2010 and 2016 in 2 large administrative regions of Italy, located in the north (Liguria) and in the south (Sicily) of the country, to describe the burden and epidemiology of both B/Victoria and B/Yamagata lineages in different healthcare settings. Influenza B viruses were detected in 5 of 6 seasonal outbreaks, exceeding influenza A during the season 2012-2013. Most of influenza B infections were found in children aged ≤ 14 y and significant differences were observed in the age-groups infected by the different lineages. B/Victoria strains prevailed in younger population than B/Yamagata, but also were more frequently found in the community setting. Conversely, B/Yamagata viruses were prevalent among hospitalized cases suggesting their potential role in the development of more severe disease. The relative proportions of viral lineages varied from year to year, resulting in different lineage-level mismatch for the B component of trivalent influenza vaccine. Our findings confirmed the need for continuous virological surveillance of seasonal epidemics and bring attention to the adoption of universal influenza immunization program in the childhood. The use of tetravalent vaccine formulations may be useful to improve the prevention and control of the influenza burden in general population.

  12. Finding optimal vaccination strategies for pandemic influenza using genetic algorithms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patel, Rajan; Longini, Ira M; Halloran, M Elizabeth

    2005-05-21

    In the event of pandemic influenza, only limited supplies of vaccine may be available. We use stochastic epidemic simulations, genetic algorithms (GA), and random mutation hill climbing (RMHC) to find optimal vaccine distributions to minimize the number of illnesses or deaths in the population, given limited quantities of vaccine. Due to the non-linearity, complexity and stochasticity of the epidemic process, it is not possible to solve for optimal vaccine distributions mathematically. However, we use GA and RMHC to find near optimal vaccine distributions. We model an influenza pandemic that has age-specific illness attack rates similar to the Asian pandemic in 1957-1958 caused by influenza A(H2N2), as well as a distribution similar to the Hong Kong pandemic in 1968-1969 caused by influenza A(H3N2). We find the optimal vaccine distributions given that the number of doses is limited over the range of 10-90% of the population. While GA and RMHC work well in finding optimal vaccine distributions, GA is significantly more efficient than RMHC. We show that the optimal vaccine distribution found by GA and RMHC is up to 84% more effective than random mass vaccination in the mid range of vaccine availability. GA is generalizable to the optimization of stochastic model parameters for other infectious diseases and population structures.

  13. Leveraging social networks for understanding the evolution of epidemics

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-01

    Background To understand how infectious agents disseminate throughout a population it is essential to capture the social model in a realistic manner. This paper presents a novel approach to modeling the propagation of the influenza virus throughout a realistic interconnection network based on actual individual interactions which we extract from online social networks. The advantage is that these networks can be extracted from existing sources which faithfully record interactions between people in their natural environment. We additionally allow modeling the characteristics of each individual as well as customizing his daily interaction patterns by making them time-dependent. Our purpose is to understand how the infection spreads depending on the structure of the contact network and the individuals who introduce the infection in the population. This would help public health authorities to respond more efficiently to epidemics. Results We implement a scalable, fully distributed simulator and validate the epidemic model by comparing the simulation results against the data in the 2004-2005 New York State Department of Health Report (NYSDOH), with similar temporal distribution results for the number of infected individuals. We analyze the impact of different types of connection models on the virus propagation. Lastly, we analyze and compare the effects of adopting several different vaccination policies, some of them based on individual characteristics -such as age- while others targeting the super-connectors in the social model. Conclusions This paper presents an approach to modeling the propagation of the influenza virus via a realistic social model based on actual individual interactions extracted from online social networks. We implemented a scalable, fully distributed simulator and we analyzed both the dissemination of the infection and the effect of different vaccination policies on the progress of the epidemics. The epidemic values predicted by our simulator match

  14. Leveraging social networks for understanding the evolution of epidemics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martín Gonzalo

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background To understand how infectious agents disseminate throughout a population it is essential to capture the social model in a realistic manner. This paper presents a novel approach to modeling the propagation of the influenza virus throughout a realistic interconnection network based on actual individual interactions which we extract from online social networks. The advantage is that these networks can be extracted from existing sources which faithfully record interactions between people in their natural environment. We additionally allow modeling the characteristics of each individual as well as customizing his daily interaction patterns by making them time-dependent. Our purpose is to understand how the infection spreads depending on the structure of the contact network and the individuals who introduce the infection in the population. This would help public health authorities to respond more efficiently to epidemics. Results We implement a scalable, fully distributed simulator and validate the epidemic model by comparing the simulation results against the data in the 2004-2005 New York State Department of Health Report (NYSDOH, with similar temporal distribution results for the number of infected individuals. We analyze the impact of different types of connection models on the virus propagation. Lastly, we analyze and compare the effects of adopting several different vaccination policies, some of them based on individual characteristics -such as age- while others targeting the super-connectors in the social model. Conclusions This paper presents an approach to modeling the propagation of the influenza virus via a realistic social model based on actual individual interactions extracted from online social networks. We implemented a scalable, fully distributed simulator and we analyzed both the dissemination of the infection and the effect of different vaccination policies on the progress of the epidemics. The epidemic values

  15. Multi-scale modeling for the transmission of influenza and the evaluation of interventions toward it.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Dongmin; Li, King C; Peters, Timothy R; Snively, Beverly M; Poehling, Katherine A; Zhou, Xiaobo

    2015-03-11

    Mathematical modeling of influenza epidemic is important for analyzing the main cause of the epidemic and finding effective interventions towards it. The epidemic is a dynamic process. In this process, daily infections are caused by people's contacts, and the frequency of contacts can be mainly influenced by their cognition to the disease. The cognition is in turn influenced by daily illness attack rate, climate, and other environment factors. Few existing methods considered the dynamic process in their models. Therefore, their prediction results can hardly be explained by the mechanisms of epidemic spreading. In this paper, we developed a heterogeneous graph modeling approach (HGM) to describe the dynamic process of influenza virus transmission by taking advantage of our unique clinical data. We built social network of studied region and embedded an Agent-Based Model (ABM) in the HGM to describe the dynamic change of an epidemic. Our simulations have a good agreement with clinical data. Parameter sensitivity analysis showed that temperature influences the dynamic of epidemic significantly and system behavior analysis showed social network degree is a critical factor determining the size of an epidemic. Finally, multiple scenarios for vaccination and school closure strategies were simulated and their performance was analyzed.

  16. Seasonality of Influenza and Respiratory Syncytial Viruses and the Effect of Climate Factors in Subtropical-Tropical Asia Using Influenza-Like Illness Surveillance Data, 2010 -2012.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamigaki, Taro; Chaw, Liling; Tan, Alvin G; Tamaki, Raita; Alday, Portia P; Javier, Jenaline B; Olveda, Remigio M; Oshitani, Hitoshi; Tallo, Veronica L

    2016-01-01

    The seasonality of influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is well known, and many analyses have been conducted in temperate countries; however, this is still not well understood in tropical countries. Previous studies suggest that climate factors are involved in the seasonality of these viruses. However, the extent of the effect of each climate variable is yet to be defined. We investigated the pattern of seasonality and the effect of climate variables on influenza and RSV at three sites of different latitudes: the Eastern Visayas region and Baguio City in the Philippines, and Okinawa Prefecture in Japan. Wavelet analysis and the dynamic linear regression model were applied. Climate variables used in the analysis included mean temperature, relative and specific humidity, precipitation, and number of rainy days. The Akaike Information Criterion estimated in each model was used to test the improvement of fit in comparison with the baseline model. At all three study sites, annual seasonal peaks were observed in influenza A and RSV; peaks were unclear for influenza B. Ranges of climate variables at the two Philippine sites were narrower and mean variables were significantly different among the three sites. Whereas all climate variables except the number of rainy days improved model fit to the local trend model, their contributions were modest. Mean temperature and specific humidity were positively associated with influenza and RSV at the Philippine sites and negatively associated with influenza A in Okinawa. Precipitation also improved model fit for influenza and RSV at both Philippine sites, except for the influenza A model in the Eastern Visayas. Annual seasonal peaks were observed for influenza A and RSV but were less clear for influenza B at all three study sites. Including additional data from subsequent more years would help to ascertain these findings. Annual amplitude and variation in climate variables are more important than their absolute values for

  17. Seasonality of Influenza and Respiratory Syncytial Viruses and the Effect of Climate Factors in Subtropical-Tropical Asia Using Influenza-Like Illness Surveillance Data, 2010 -2012.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Taro Kamigaki

    Full Text Available The seasonality of influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV is well known, and many analyses have been conducted in temperate countries; however, this is still not well understood in tropical countries. Previous studies suggest that climate factors are involved in the seasonality of these viruses. However, the extent of the effect of each climate variable is yet to be defined.We investigated the pattern of seasonality and the effect of climate variables on influenza and RSV at three sites of different latitudes: the Eastern Visayas region and Baguio City in the Philippines, and Okinawa Prefecture in Japan. Wavelet analysis and the dynamic linear regression model were applied. Climate variables used in the analysis included mean temperature, relative and specific humidity, precipitation, and number of rainy days. The Akaike Information Criterion estimated in each model was used to test the improvement of fit in comparison with the baseline model.At all three study sites, annual seasonal peaks were observed in influenza A and RSV; peaks were unclear for influenza B. Ranges of climate variables at the two Philippine sites were narrower and mean variables were significantly different among the three sites. Whereas all climate variables except the number of rainy days improved model fit to the local trend model, their contributions were modest. Mean temperature and specific humidity were positively associated with influenza and RSV at the Philippine sites and negatively associated with influenza A in Okinawa. Precipitation also improved model fit for influenza and RSV at both Philippine sites, except for the influenza A model in the Eastern Visayas.Annual seasonal peaks were observed for influenza A and RSV but were less clear for influenza B at all three study sites. Including additional data from subsequent more years would help to ascertain these findings. Annual amplitude and variation in climate variables are more important than their

  18. Avian influenza trasnmission risks: analysis of biosecuritiy measures and contact structure in Dutch poultry farming

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ssematimba, A.; Hagenaars, T.H.J.; Wit, de J.J.; Ruiterkamp, F.; Fabri, T.H.F.; Stegeman, J.A.; Jong, de M.C.M.

    2013-01-01

    In the 2003 epidemic of highly pathogenic avian influenza in Dutch poultry, between-farm virus transmission continued for considerable time despite control measures. Gaining more insight into the mechanisms of this spread is necessary for the possible development of better control strategies. We

  19. Intranasal vaccination promotes detrimental Th17-mediated immunity against influenza infection.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Asher Maroof

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Influenza disease is a global health issue that causes significant morbidity and mortality through seasonal epidemics. Currently, inactivated influenza virus vaccines given intramuscularly or live attenuated influenza virus vaccines administered intranasally are the only approved options for vaccination against influenza virus in humans. We evaluated the efficacy of a synthetic toll-like receptor 4 agonist CRX-601 as an adjuvant for enhancing vaccine-induced protection against influenza infection. Intranasal administration of CRX-601 adjuvant combined with detergent split-influenza antigen (A/Uruguay/716/2007 (H3N2 generated strong local and systemic immunity against co-administered influenza antigens while exhibiting high efficacy against two heterotypic influenza challenges. Intranasal vaccination with CRX-601 adjuvanted vaccines promoted antigen-specific IgG and IgA antibody responses and the generation of polyfunctional antigen-specific Th17 cells (CD4(+IL-17A(+TNFα(+. Following challenge with influenza virus, vaccinated mice transiently exhibited increased weight loss and morbidity during early stages of disease but eventually controlled infection. This disease exacerbation following influenza infection in vaccinated mice was dependent on both the route of vaccination and the addition of the adjuvant. Neutralization of IL-17A confirmed a detrimental role for this cytokine during influenza infection. The expansion of vaccine-primed Th17 cells during influenza infection was also accompanied by an augmented lung neutrophilic response, which was partially responsible for mediating the increased morbidity. This discovery is of significance in the field of vaccinology, as it highlights the importance of both route of vaccination and adjuvant selection in vaccine development.

  20. Extreme Precipitation and Emergency Room Visits for Influenza in Massachusetts: A Case-Crossover Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    BACKGROUND: Influenza peaks during the wintertime in temperate regions and during the annual rainy season in tropical regions – however reasons for the observed differences in disease ecology are poorly understood. We hypothesize that episodes of extreme precipitation also result...

  1. The epidemiological impact of childhood influenza vaccination using live-attenuated influenza vaccine (LAIV) in Germany: predictions of a simulation study

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-01-01

    Background Routine annual influenza vaccination is primarily recommended for all persons aged 60 and above and for people with underlying chronic conditions in Germany. Other countries have already adopted additional childhood influenza immunisation programmes. The objective of this study is to determine the potential epidemiological impact of implementing paediatric influenza vaccination using intranasally administered live-attenuated influenza vaccine (LAIV) in Germany. Methods A deterministic age-structured model is used to simulate the population-level impact of different vaccination strategies on the transmission dynamics of seasonal influenza in Germany. In our base-case analysis, we estimate the effects of adding a LAIV-based immunisation programme targeting children 2 to 17 years of age to the existing influenza vaccination policy. The data used in the model is based on published evidence complemented by expert opinion. Results In our model, additional vaccination of children 2 to 17 years of age with LAIV leads to the prevention of 23.9 million influenza infections and nearly 16 million symptomatic influenza cases within 10 years. This reduction in burden of disease is not restricted to children. About one third of all adult cases can indirectly be prevented by LAIV immunisation of children. Conclusions Our results demonstrate that vaccinating children 2–17 years of age is likely associated with a significant reduction in the burden of paediatric influenza. Furthermore, annual routine childhood vaccination against seasonal influenza is expected to decrease the incidence of influenza among adults and older people due to indirect effects of herd protection. In summary, our model provides data supporting the introduction of a paediatric influenza immunisation programme in Germany. PMID:24450996

  2. Epidemic cholera spreads like wildfire

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roy, Manojit; Zinck, Richard D.; Bouma, Menno J.; Pascual, Mercedes

    2014-01-01

    Cholera is on the rise globally, especially epidemic cholera which is characterized by intermittent and unpredictable outbreaks that punctuate periods of regional disease fade-out. These epidemic dynamics remain however poorly understood. Here we examine records for epidemic cholera over both contemporary and historical timelines, from Africa (1990-2006) and former British India (1882-1939). We find that the frequency distribution of outbreak size is fat-tailed, scaling approximately as a power-law. This pattern which shows strong parallels with wildfires is incompatible with existing cholera models developed for endemic regions, as it implies a fundamental role for stochastic transmission and local depletion of susceptible hosts. Application of a recently developed forest-fire model indicates that epidemic cholera dynamics are located above a critical phase transition and propagate in similar ways to aggressive wildfires. These findings have implications for the effectiveness of control measures and the mechanisms that ultimately limit the size of outbreaks.

  3. [Epidemic parotiditis, a reportable disease].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boverhoff, J C; Baart, J A

    2013-01-01

    Three consecutive patients with an acute swelling of one of the cheeks, were diagnosed with epidemic parotiditis. The first phase of the diagnostic procedure for an acute cheek swelling is to eliminate the possibility of odontogenic causes. When odontogenic problems have been excluded, non-dentition-related causes may be considered. An acute, progressive swelling in the preauricular area can often be attributed to an inflammation of the parotid gland, but epidemic parotiditis should also be considered. Epidemic parotiditis, or mumps, is caused by the mumps virus. Contamination occurs aerogenically. In the Netherlands, mumps vaccine is an ingredient of the governmental combined mump-measles-rubella inoculation programme. However, in recent years several small-scale parotiditis epidemics have broken out, predominantly among young, inoculated adults. Oropharyngeal mucus and blood samples are needed to diagnose the disease. Each case of the disease should be reported to the community healthcare service.

  4. "Pandemic public health paradox": Time series analysis of the 2009/10 influenza A/H1N1 epidemiology, media attention, risk perception and public reactions in 5 European countries

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    R. Reintjes (R.); E. Das (Enny); Klemm, C. (Celine); J.H. Richardus (Jan Hendrik); Keßler, V. (Verena); R.A. Ahmad (Riris)

    2016-01-01

    textabstractIn 2009, influenza A H1N1 caused the first pandemic of the 21st century. Although a vaccine against this influenza subtype was offered before or at the onset of the second epidemic wave that caused most of the fatal cases in Europe, vaccination rates for that season were lower than

  5. Direct isolation of H1N2 recombinant virus from a throat swab of a patient simultaneously infected with H1N1 and H3N2 influenza A viruses.

    OpenAIRE

    Nishikawa, F; Sugiyama, T

    1983-01-01

    Two H1N2 recombinant viruses were isolated by a plaquing method from a throat swab of a patient who was simultaneously infected with H1N1 and H3N2 influenza viruses during the Tokyo epidemic of 1981. This is the first direct evidence that recombination of influenza viruses occurred in the human body.

  6. Epidemics and the politics of knowledge: contested narratives in Egypt's H1N1 response.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leach, Melissa; Tadros, Mariz

    2014-01-01

    This article explores the politics of knowledge involved in understanding and responding to epidemics in an era of global health governance and biosecurity. It develops and applies an approach focused on how multiple, competing narratives about epidemics are constructed, mobilized and interact, and selectively justify pathways of intervention and response. A detailed ethnographic case study of national and local responses to H1N1 influenza, so-called swine flu, in Egypt reveals how global narratives were reworked by powerful actors in a particular political context, suppressing and delegitimizing the alternative narratives of the Zabaleen (Coptic Christian) people whose lives and livelihoods centered on raising pigs and working with them to control urban waste. The case study illustrates important ways in which geographies and politics of blame around epidemics emerge and are justified, their political contexts and consequences, and how they may feed back to shape the dynamics of disease itself.

  7. Ebola Policies That Hinder Epidemic Response by Limiting Scientific Discourse

    OpenAIRE

    Asgary, Ramin; Pavlin, Julie A.; Ripp, Jonathan A.; Reithinger, Richard; Polyak, Christina S.

    2015-01-01

    There is an unprecedented epidemic of Ebola virus disease (EVD) in west Africa. There has been a strong response from dedicated health professionals. However, there have also been irrational and fear-based responses that have contributed to misallocation of resources, stigma, and deincentivizing volunteers to combat Ebola at its source. Recently, the State of Louisiana Department of Health and Hospitals issued a ban on those coming from affected countries wishing to attend the annual meetings...

  8. An innovative influenza vaccination policy: targeting last season's patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamin, Dan; Gavious, Arieh; Solnik, Eyal; Davidovitch, Nadav; Balicer, Ran D; Galvani, Alison P; Pliskin, Joseph S

    2014-05-01

    Influenza vaccination is the primary approach to prevent influenza annually. WHO/CDC recommendations prioritize vaccinations mainly on the basis of age and co-morbidities, but have never considered influenza infection history of individuals for vaccination targeting. We evaluated such influenza vaccination policies through small-world contact networks simulations. Further, to verify our findings we analyzed, independently, large-scale empirical data of influenza diagnosis from the two largest Health Maintenance Organizations in Israel, together covering more than 74% of the Israeli population. These longitudinal individual-level data include about nine million cases of influenza diagnosed over a decade. Through contact network epidemiology simulations, we found that individuals previously infected with influenza have a disproportionate probability of being highly connected within networks and transmitting to others. Therefore, we showed that prioritizing those previously infected for vaccination would be more effective than a random vaccination policy in reducing infection. The effectiveness of such a policy is robust over a range of epidemiological assumptions, including cross-reactivity between influenza strains conferring partial protection as high as 55%. Empirically, our analysis of the medical records confirms that in every age group, case definition for influenza, clinical diagnosis, and year tested, patients infected in the year prior had a substantially higher risk of becoming infected in the subsequent year. Accordingly, considering individual infection history in targeting and promoting influenza vaccination is predicted to be a highly effective supplement to the current policy. Our approach can also be generalized for other infectious disease, computer viruses, or ecological networks.

  9. An innovative influenza vaccination policy: targeting last season's patients.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dan Yamin

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Influenza vaccination is the primary approach to prevent influenza annually. WHO/CDC recommendations prioritize vaccinations mainly on the basis of age and co-morbidities, but have never considered influenza infection history of individuals for vaccination targeting. We evaluated such influenza vaccination policies through small-world contact networks simulations. Further, to verify our findings we analyzed, independently, large-scale empirical data of influenza diagnosis from the two largest Health Maintenance Organizations in Israel, together covering more than 74% of the Israeli population. These longitudinal individual-level data include about nine million cases of influenza diagnosed over a decade. Through contact network epidemiology simulations, we found that individuals previously infected with influenza have a disproportionate probability of being highly connected within networks and transmitting to others. Therefore, we showed that prioritizing those previously infected for vaccination would be more effective than a random vaccination policy in reducing infection. The effectiveness of such a policy is robust over a range of epidemiological assumptions, including cross-reactivity between influenza strains conferring partial protection as high as 55%. Empirically, our analysis of the medical records confirms that in every age group, case definition for influenza, clinical diagnosis, and year tested, patients infected in the year prior had a substantially higher risk of becoming infected in the subsequent year. Accordingly, considering individual infection history in targeting and promoting influenza vaccination is predicted to be a highly effective supplement to the current policy. Our approach can also be generalized for other infectious disease, computer viruses, or ecological networks.

  10. Developing Universal Influenza Vaccines: Hitting the Nail, Not Just on the Head

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lidewij C. M. Wiersma

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Influenza viruses have a huge impact on public health. Current influenza vaccines need to be updated annually and protect poorly against antigenic drift variants or novel emerging subtypes. Vaccination against influenza can be improved in two important ways, either by inducing more broadly protective immune responses or by decreasing the time of vaccine production, which is relevant especially during a pandemic outbreak. In this review, we outline the current efforts to develop so-called “universal influenza vaccines”, describing antigens that may induce broadly protective immunity and novel vaccine production platforms that facilitate timely availability of vaccines.

  11. Avian influenza overview September–November 2017

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brown, Ian; Kuiken, Thijs; Mulatti, Paolo

    2017-01-01

    Between 1 September and 15 November 2017, 48 A(H5N8) highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreaks in poultry holdings and 9 H5 HPAI wild bird events were reported within Europe. A second epidemic HPAI A(H5N8) wave started in Italy on the third week of July and is still ongoing on 15November...... to focus in order to achieve the most effective testing of dead birds for detection of H5 HPAI viruses. Monitoring the avian influenza situation in other continents revealed the same risks as in the previous report (October 2016-August 2017): the recent human case of HPAI A(H5N6) in China underlines...... the continuing threat of this avian influenza virus to human health and possible introduction via migratory wild birds into Europe. Close monitoring is required of the situation in Africa with regards to HPAI of the subtypes A(H5N1) and A(H5N8), given the rapidity of the evolution and the uncertainty...

  12. The worldwide obesity epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    James, P T; Leach, R; Kalamara, E; Shayeghi, M

    2001-11-01

    The recent World Health Organization (WHO) agreement on the standardized classification of overweight and obese, based on body mass index (BMI), allows a comparable analysis of prevalence rates worldwide for the first time. In Asia, however, there is a demand for a more limited range for normal BMIs (i.e., 18.5 to 22.9 kg/m(2) rather than 18.5 to 24.9 kg/m(2)) because of the high prevalence of comorbidities, particularly diabetes and hypertension. In children, the International Obesity Task-Force age-, sex-, and BMI-specific cutoff points are increasingly being used. We are currently evaluating BMI data globally as part of a new millennium analysis of the Global Burden of Disease. WHO is analyzing data in terms of 20 or more principal risk factors contributing to the primary causes of disability and lost lives in the 191 countries within the WHO. The prevalence rates for overweight and obese people are different in each region, with the Middle East, Central and Eastern Europe, and North America having higher prevalence rates. In most countries, women show a greater BMI distribution with higher obesity rates than do men. Obesity is usually now associated with poverty, even in developing countries. Relatively new data suggest that abdominal obesity in adults, with its associated enhanced morbidity, occurs particularly in those who had lower birth weights and early childhood stunting. Waist measurements in nationally representative studies are scarce but will now be needed to estimate the full impact of the worldwide obesity epidemic.

  13. Balancing immune protection and immune pathology by CD8+ T cell responses to influenza infection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Susu eDuan

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Influenza A virus (IAV is a significant human pathogen causing annual epidemics and periodic pandemics. CD8+ cytotoxic T lymphocyte (CTL-mediated immunity contributes to clearance of virus-infected cells; CTL immunity targeting the conserved internal proteins of IAVs is a key protection mechanism when neutralizing antibodies are absent during heterosubtypic IAV infection. However, CTL infiltration into the airways, their cytotoxicity, and the effects of produced pro-inflammatory cytokines can cause severe lung tissue injury, thereby contributing to immunopathology. Studies have discovered complicated and exquisite stimulatory and inhibitory mechanisms that regulate CTL magnitude and effector activities during IAV infection. Here, we review the state of knowledge on the roles of IAV-specific CTLs in immune protection and immunopathology during IAV infection in animal models, highlighting the key findings of various requirements and constraints regulating the balance of immune protection and pathology involved in CTL immunity. We also discuss the evidence of cross-reactive CTL immunity as a positive correlate of cross-subtype protection during secondary IAV infection in both animal and human studies. We argue that the effects of CTL immunity on protection and immunopathology depend on multiple layers of host and viral factors, including complex host mechanisms to regulate CTL magnitude and effector activity, the pathogenic nature of the IAV, the innate response milieu, and the host historical immune context of influenza infection. Future efforts are needed to further understand these key host and viral factors, especially to differentiate those that constrain optimally effective CTL anti-viral immunity from those necessary to restrain CTL-mediated nonspecific immunopathology in the various contexts of IAV infection, in order to develop better vaccination and therapeutic strategies for modifying protective CTL immunity.

  14. The effect of age and recent influenza vaccination history on the immunogenicity and efficacy of 2009-10 seasonal trivalent inactivated influenza vaccination in children.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sophia Ng

    Full Text Available There is some evidence that annual vaccination of trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine (TIV may lead to reduced vaccine immunogenicity but evidence is lacking on whether vaccine efficacy is affected by prior vaccination history. The efficacy of one dose of TIV in children 6-8 y of age against influenza B is uncertain. We examined whether immunogenicity and efficacy of influenza vaccination in school-age children varied by age and past vaccination history.We conducted a randomized controlled trial of 2009-10 TIV. Influenza vaccination history in the two preceding years was recorded. Immunogenicity was assessed by comparison of HI titers before and one month after receipt of TIV/placebo. Subjects were followed up for 11 months with symptom diaries, and respiratory specimens were collected during acute respiratory illnesses to permit confirmation of influenza virus infections. We found that previous vaccination was associated with reduced antibody responses to TIV against seasonal A(H1N1 and A(H3N2 particularly in children 9-17 y of age, but increased antibody responses to the same lineage of influenza B virus in children 6-8 y of age. Serological responses to the influenza A vaccine viruses were high regardless of vaccination history. One dose of TIV appeared to be efficacious against confirmed influenza B in children 6-8 y of age regardless of vaccination history.Prior vaccination was associated with lower antibody titer rises following vaccination against seasonal influenza A vaccine viruses, but higher responses to influenza B among individuals primed with viruses from the same lineage in preceding years. In a year in which influenza B virus predominated, no impact of prior vaccination history was observed on vaccine efficacy against influenza B. The strains that circulated in the year of study did not allow us to study the effect of prior vaccination on vaccine efficacy against influenza A.

  15. Measuring Cellular Immunity to Influenza: Methods of Detection, Applications and Challenges

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lynda Coughlan

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Influenza A virus is a respiratory pathogen which causes both seasonal epidemics and occasional pandemics; infection continues to be a significant cause of mortality worldwide. Current influenza vaccines principally stimulate humoral immune responses that are largely directed towards the variant surface antigens of influenza. Vaccination can result in an effective, albeit strain-specific antibody response and there is a need for vaccines that can provide superior, long-lasting immunity to influenza. Vaccination approaches targeting conserved viral antigens have the potential to provide broadly cross-reactive, heterosubtypic immunity to diverse influenza viruses. However, the field lacks consensus on the correlates of protection for cellular immunity in reducing severe influenza infection, transmission or disease outcome. Furthermore, unlike serological methods such as the standardized haemagglutination inhibition assay, there remains a large degree of variation in both the types of assays and method of reporting cellular outputs. T-cell directed immunity has long been known to play a role in ameliorating the severity and/or duration of influenza infection, but the precise phenotype, magnitude and longevity of the requisite protective response is unclear. In order to progress the development of universal influenza vaccines, it is critical to standardize assays across sites to facilitate direct comparisons between clinical trials.

  16. Influenza A and B viruses in the population of Vojvodina, Serbia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Radovanov J.

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available At present, two influenza A viruses, H1N1pdm09 and H3N2, along with influenza B virus co-circulate in the human population, causing endemic and seasonal epidemic acute febrile respiratory infections, sometimes with life-threatening complications. Detection of influenza viruses in nasopharyngeal swab samples was done by real-time RT-PCR. There were 60.2% (53/88 positive samples in 2010/11, 63.4% (52/82 in 2011/12, and 49.9% (184/369 in 2012/13. Among the positive patients, influenza A viruses were predominant during the first two seasons, while influenza B type was more active during 2012/13. Subtyping of influenza A positive samples revealed the presence of A (H1N1pdm09 in 2010/11, A (H3N2 in 2011/12, while in 2012/13, both subtypes were detected. The highest seroprevalence against influenza A was in the age-group 30-64, and against influenza B in adults aged 30-64 and >65. [Projekat Ministarstva nauke Republike Srbije, br. TR31084

  17. Principles underlying rational design of live attenuated influenza vaccines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jang, Yo Han

    2012-01-01

    Despite recent innovative advances in molecular virology and the developments of vaccines, influenza virus remains a serious burden for human health. Vaccination has been considered a primary countermeasure for prevention of influenza infection. Live attenuated influenza vaccines (LAIVs) are particularly attracting attention as an effective strategy due to several advantages over inactivated vaccines. Cold-adaptation, as a classical means for attenuating viral virulence, has been successfully used for generating safe and effective donor strains of LAIVs against seasonal epidemics and occasional pandemics. Recently, the advent of reverse genetics technique expedited a variety of rational strategies to broaden the pool of LAIVs. Considering the breadth of antigenic diversity of influenza virus, the pool of LAIVs is likely to equip us with better options for controlling influenza pandemics. With a brief reflection on classical attenuating strategies used at the initial stage of development of LAIVs, especially on the principles underlying the development of cold-adapted LAIVs, we further discuss and outline other attenuation strategies especially with respect to the rationales for attenuation, and their practicality for mass production. Finally, we propose important considerations for a rational vaccine design, which will provide us with practical guidelines for improving the safety and effectiveness of LAIVs. PMID:23596576

  18. Pandemic influenza: human rights, ethics and duty to treat.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pahlman, I; Tohmo, H; Gylling, H

    2010-01-01

    The 2009 influenza A/H1N1 pandemic seems to be only moderately severe. In the future, a pandemic influenza with high lethality, such as the Spanish influenza in 1918-1919 or even worse, may emerge. In this kind of scenario, lethality rates ranging roughly from 2% to 30% have been proposed. Legal and ethical issues should be discussed before the incident. This article aims to highlight the legal, ethical and professional aspects that might be relevant to anaesthesiologists in the case of a high-lethality infectious disease such as a severe pandemic influenza. The epidemiology, the role of anaesthesiologists and possible threats to the profession and colleagueship within medical specialties relevant to anaesthesiologists are reviewed. During historical plague epidemics, some doctors have behaved like 'deserters'. However, during the Spanish influenza, physicians remained at their jobs, although many perished. In surveys, more than half of the health-care workers have reported their willingness to work in the case of severe pandemics. Physicians have the same human rights as all citizens: they have to be effectively protected against infectious disease. However, they have a duty to treat. Fair and responsible colleagueship among the diverse medical specialties should be promoted. Until disaster threatens humanity, volunteering to work during a pandemic might be the best way to ensure that physicians and other health-care workers stay at their workplace. Broad discussion in society is needed.

  19. Influenza A Subtyping

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaul, Karen L.; Mangold, Kathy A.; Du, Hongyan; Pesavento, Kristen M.; Nawrocki, John; Nowak, Jan A.

    2010-01-01

    Influenza virus subtyping has emerged as a critical tool in the diagnosis of influenza. Antiviral resistance is present in the majority of seasonal H1N1 influenza A infections, with association of viral strain type and antiviral resistance. Influenza A virus subtypes can be reliably distinguished by examining conserved sequences in the matrix protein gene. We describe our experience with an assay for influenza A subtyping based on matrix gene sequences. Viral RNA was prepared from nasopharyngeal swab samples, and real-time RT-PCR detection of influenza A and B was performed using a laboratory developed analyte-specific reagent-based assay that targets a conserved region of the influenza A matrix protein gene. FluA-positive samples were analyzed using a second RT-PCR assay targeting the matrix protein gene to distinguish seasonal influenza subtypes based on differential melting of fluorescence resonance energy transfer probes. The novel H1N1 influenza strain responsible for the 2009 pandemic showed a melting profile distinct from that of seasonal H1N1 or H3N2 and compatible with the predicted melting temperature based on the published novel H1N1 matrix gene sequence. Validation by comparison with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention real-time RT-PCR for swine influenza A (novel H1N1) test showed this assay to be both rapid and reliable (>99% sensitive and specific) in the identification of the novel H1N1 influenza A virus strain. PMID:20595627

  20. Mortality Attributable to Seasonal Influenza A and B Infections in Thailand, 2005–2009: A Longitudinal Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cooper, Ben S.; Kotirum, Surachai; Kulpeng, Wantanee; Praditsitthikorn, Naiyana; Chittaganpitch, Malinee; Limmathurotsakul, Direk; Day, Nicholas P. J.; Coker, Richard; Teerawattananon, Yot; Meeyai, Aronrag

    2015-01-01

    Influenza epidemiology differs substantially in tropical and temperate zones, but estimates of seasonal influenza mortality in developing countries in the tropics are lacking. We aimed to quantify mortality due to seasonal influenza in Thailand, a tropical middle-income country. Time series of polymerase chain reaction–confirmed influenza infections between 2005 and 2009 were constructed from a sentinel surveillance network. These were combined with influenza-like illness data to derive measures of influenza activity and relationships to mortality by using a Bayesian regression framework. We estimated 6.1 (95% credible interval: 0.5, 12.4) annual deaths per 100,000 population attributable to influenza A and B, predominantly in those aged ≥60 years, with the largest contribution from influenza A(H1N1) in 3 out of 4 years. For A(H3N2), the relationship between influenza activity and mortality varied over time. Influenza was associated with increases in deaths classified as resulting from respiratory disease (posterior probability of positive association, 99.8%), cancer (98.6%), renal disease (98.0%), and liver disease (99.2%). No association with circulatory disease mortality was found. Seasonal influenza infections are associated with substantial mortality in Thailand, but evidence for the strong relationship between influenza activity and circulatory disease mortality reported in temperate countries is lacking. PMID:25899091

  1. Mitigation strategies for pandemic influenza A: balancing conflicting policy objectives.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T Déirdre Hollingsworth

    Full Text Available Mitigation of a severe influenza pandemic can be achieved using a range of interventions to reduce transmission. Interventions can reduce the impact of an outbreak and buy time until vaccines are developed, but they may have high social and economic costs. The non-linear effect on the epidemic dynamics means that suitable strategies crucially depend on the precise aim of the intervention. National pandemic influenza plans rarely contain clear statements of policy objectives or prioritization of potentially conflicting aims, such as minimizing mortality (depending on the severity of a pandemic or peak prevalence or limiting the socio-economic burden of contact-reducing interventions. We use epidemiological models of influenza A to investigate how contact-reducing interventions and availability of antiviral drugs or pre-pandemic vaccines contribute to achieving particular policy objectives. Our analyses show that the ideal strategy depends on the aim of an intervention and that the achievement of one policy objective may preclude success with others, e.g., constraining peak demand for public health resources may lengthen the duration of the epidemic and hence its economic and social impact. Constraining total case numbers can be achieved by a range of strategies, whereas strategies which additionally constrain peak demand for services require a more sophisticated intervention. If, for example, there are multiple objectives which must be achieved prior to the availability of a pandemic vaccine (i.e., a time-limited intervention, our analysis shows that interventions should be implemented several weeks into the epidemic, not at the very start. This observation is shown to be robust across a range of constraints and for uncertainty in estimates of both R(0 and the timing of vaccine availability. These analyses highlight the need for more precise statements of policy objectives and their assumed consequences when planning and implementing strategies

  2. Epidemic processes in complex networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pastor-Satorras, Romualdo; Castellano, Claudio; Van Mieghem, Piet; Vespignani, Alessandro

    2015-07-01

    In recent years the research community has accumulated overwhelming evidence for the emergence of complex and heterogeneous connectivity patterns in a wide range of biological and sociotechnical systems. The complex properties of real-world networks have a profound impact on the behavior of equilibrium and nonequilibrium phenomena occurring in various systems, and the study of epidemic spreading is central to our understanding of the unfolding of dynamical processes in complex networks. The theoretical analysis of epidemic spreading in heterogeneous networks requires the development of novel analytical frameworks, and it has produced results of conceptual and practical relevance. A coherent and comprehensive review of the vast research activity concerning epidemic processes is presented, detailing the successful theoretical approaches as well as making their limits and assumptions clear. Physicists, mathematicians, epidemiologists, computer, and social scientists share a common interest in studying epidemic spreading and rely on similar models for the description of the diffusion of pathogens, knowledge, and innovation. For this reason, while focusing on the main results and the paradigmatic models in infectious disease modeling, the major results concerning generalized social contagion processes are also presented. Finally, the research activity at the forefront in the study of epidemic spreading in coevolving, coupled, and time-varying networks is reported.

  3. Gradual changes in the age distribution of excess deaths in the years following the 1918 influenza pandemic in Copenhagen

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Saglanmak, Neslihan; Andreasen, Viggo; Simonsen, Lone

    2011-01-01

    implications for pandemic preparedness. In the present paper, we analyse the age patterns of influenza-related excess mortality in the decades before and after the 1918 pandemic, using detailed historic surveillance data from Copenhagen. Methods: Weekly age-specific rates of respiratory mortality and influenza...... in the recrudescent pandemic wave of 1919–1920 may suggest the emergence of an early influenza A/H1N1 drift variant. Subsequent drift events may have been associated with the particularly severe 1928–1929 epidemic in Denmark and elsewhere....

  4. Influenza infection and heart failure-vaccination may change heart failure prognosis?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kadoglou, Nikolaos P E; Bracke, Frank; Simmers, Tim; Tsiodras, Sotirios; Parissis, John

    2017-05-01

    The interaction of influenza infection with the pathogenesis of acute heart failure (AHF) and the worsening of chronic heart failure (CHF) is rather complex. The deleterious effects of influenza infection on AHF/CHF can be attenuated by specific immunization. Our review aimed to summarize the efficacy, effectiveness, safety, and dosage of anti-influenza vaccination in HF. In this literature review, we searched MEDLINE and EMBASE from January 1st 1966 to December 31st, 2016, for studies examining the association between AHF/CHF, influenza infections, and anti-influenza immunizations. We used broad criteria to increase the sensitivity of the search. HF was a prerequisite for our search. The search fields used included "heart failure," "vaccination," "influenza," "immunization" along with variants of these terms. No restrictions on the type of study design were applied. The most common clinical scenario is exacerbation of pre-existing CHF by influenza infection. Scarce evidence supports a potential positive association of influenza infection with AHF. Vaccinated patients with pre-existing CHF have reduced all-cause morbidity and mortality, but effects are not consistently documented. Immunization with higher antigen quantity may confer additional protection, but such aggressive approach has not been generally advocated. Further studies are needed to delineate the role of influenza infection on AHF/CHF pathogenesis and maintenance. Annual anti-influenza vaccination appears to be an effective measure for secondary prevention in HF. Better immunization strategies and more efficacious vaccines are urgently necessary.

  5. Economic burden of influenza-associated hospitalizations and outpatient visits in Bangladesh during 2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhuiyan, Mejbah U; Luby, Stephen P; Alamgir, Nadia I; Homaira, Nusrat; Mamun, Abdullah A; Khan, Jahangir A M; Abedin, Jaynal; Sturm-Ramirez, Katharine; Gurley, Emily S; Zaman, Rashid U; Alamgir, A S M; Rahman, Mahmudur; Widdowson, Marc-Alain; Azziz-Baumgartner, Eduardo

    2014-07-01

    Understanding the costs of influenza-associated illness in Bangladesh may help health authorities assess the cost-effectiveness of influenza prevention programs. We estimated the annual economic burden of influenza-associated hospitalizations and outpatient visits in Bangladesh. From May through October 2010, investigators identified both outpatients and inpatients at four tertiary hospitals with laboratory-confirmed influenza infection through rRT-PCR. Research assistants visited case-patients' homes within 30 days of hospital visit/discharge and administered a structured questionnaire to capture direct medical costs (physician consultation, hospital bed, medicines and diagnostic tests), direct non-medical costs (food, lodging and travel) and indirect costs (case-patients' and caregivers' lost income). We used WHO-Choice estimates for routine healthcare service costs. We added direct, indirect and healthcare service costs to calculate cost-per-episode. We used median cost-per-episode, published influenza-associated outpatient and hospitalization rates and Bangladesh census data to estimate the annual economic burden of influenza-associated illnesses in 2010. We interviewed 132 outpatients and 41 hospitalized patients. The median cost of an influenza-associated outpatient visit was US$4.80 (IQR = 2.93-8.11) and an influenza-associated hospitalization was US$82.20 (IQR = 59.96-121.56). We estimated that influenza-associated outpatient visits resulted in US$108 million (95% CI: 76-147) in direct costs and US$59 million (95% CI: 37-91) in indirect costs; influenza-associated hospitalizations resulted in US$1.4 million (95% CI: 0.4-2.6) in direct costs and US$0.4 million (95% CI: 0.1-0.8) in indirect costs in 2010. In Bangladesh, influenza-associated illnesses caused an estimated US$169 million in economic loss in 2010, largely driven by frequent but low-cost outpatient visits. © 2014 The Authors. Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses Published by John Wiley & Sons

  6. A population-based estimate of the economic burden of influenza in Peru, 2009-2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tinoco, Yeny O; Azziz-Baumgartner, Eduardo; Rázuri, Hugo; Kasper, Matthew R; Romero, Candice; Ortiz, Ernesto; Gomez, Jorge; Widdowson, Marc-Alain; Uyeki, Timothy M; Gilman, Robert H; Bausch, Daniel G; Montgomery, Joel M

    2016-07-01

    Influenza disease burden and economic impact data are needed to assess the potential value of interventions. Such information is limited from resource-limited settings. We therefore studied the cost of influenza in Peru. We used data collected during June 2009-December 2010 from laboratory-confirmed influenza cases identified through a household cohort in Peru. We determined the self-reported direct and indirect costs of self-treatment, outpatient care, emergency ward care, and hospitalizations through standardized questionnaires. We recorded costs accrued 15-day from illness onset. Direct costs represented medication, consultation, diagnostic fees, and health-related expenses such as transportation and phone calls. Indirect costs represented lost productivity during days of illness by both cases and caregivers. We estimated the annual economic cost and the impact of a case of influenza on a household. There were 1321 confirmed influenza cases, of which 47% sought health care. Participants with confirmed influenza illness paid a median of $13 [interquartile range (IQR) 5-26] for self-treatment, $19 (IQR 9-34) for ambulatory non-medical attended illness, $29 (IQR 14-51) for ambulatory medical attended illness, and $171 (IQR 113-258) for hospitalizations. Overall, the projected national cost of an influenza illness was $83-$85 millions. Costs per influenza illness represented 14% of the monthly household income of the lowest income quartile (compared to 3% of the highest quartile). Influenza virus infection causes an important economic burden, particularly among the poorest families and those hospitalized. Prevention strategies such as annual influenza vaccination program targeting SAGE population at risk could reduce the overall economic impact of seasonal influenza. © 2015 The Authors. Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  7. US healthcare costs attributable to type A and type B influenza.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, Songkai; Weycker, Derek; Sokolowski, Stefania

    2017-09-02

    While the overall healthcare burden of seasonal influenza in the United States (US) has been well characterized, the proportion of influenza burden attributable to type A and type B illness warrants further elucidation. The aim of this study was to estimate numbers of healthcare encounters and healthcare costs attributable to influenza viral strains A and B in the US during the 2001/2002 - 2008/2009 seasons. Healthcare encounters and costs in the US during the 2001/2002 - 2008/2009 seasons for influenza type A and influenza type B were estimated separately and collectively, by season and age group, based on data from published literature and secondary sources for: rates of influenza-related encounters requiring formal healthcare, unit costs of influenza-related healthcare encounters, and estimates of population size. Across 8 seasons, projected annual numbers of influenza-related healthcare encounters ranged from 11.3-25.6 million, and healthcare costs, from $2.0-$5.8 billion. While the majority of influenza illness was attributable to type A strains, type B strains accounted for 37% of healthcare costs across all seasons, and as much as 66% in a single season. The outpatient burden of type B disease was considerable among persons aged 18-64 y while the hospital cost burden was highest in young children. Influenza viral strain B was associated with considerable health system burden each year during the period of interest. Increasing influenza vaccine coverage, especially with the recently approved quadrivalent products including an additional type B strain, could potentially reduce overall annual influenza burden in the US.

  8. A comparative analysis of influenza vaccination programs.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shweta Bansal

    2006-10-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The threat of avian influenza and the 2004-2005 influenza vaccine supply shortage in the United States have sparked a debate about optimal vaccination strategies to reduce the burden of morbidity and mortality caused by the influenza virus. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We present a comparative analysis of two classes of suggested vaccination strategies: mortality-based strategies that target high-risk populations and morbidity-based strategies that target high-prevalence populations. Applying the methods of contact network epidemiology to a model of disease transmission in a large urban population, we assume that vaccine supplies are limited and then evaluate the efficacy of these strategies across a wide range of viral transmission rates and for two different age-specific mortality distributions. We find that the optimal strategy depends critically on the viral transmission level (reproductive rate of the virus: morbidity-based strategies outperform mortality-based strategies for moderately transmissible strains, while the reverse is true for highly transmissible strains. These results hold for a range of mortality rates reported for prior influenza epidemics and pandemics. Furthermore, we show that vaccination delays and multiple introductions of disease into the community have a more detrimental impact on morbidity-based strategies than mortality-based strategies. CONCLUSIONS: If public health officials have reasonable estimates of the viral transmission rate and the frequency of new introductions into the community prior to an outbreak, then these methods can guide the design of optimal vaccination priorities. When such information is unreliable or not available, as is often the case, this study recommends mortality-based vaccination priorities.

  9. Avian influenza virus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Avian influenza virus (AIV) is type A influenza that is adapted to avian host species. Although the virus can be isolated from numerous avian species, the natural host reservoir species are dabbling ducks, shorebirds and gulls. Domestic poultry species (poultry being defined as birds that are rais...

  10. ADULT INFLUENZA VACCINATION GUIDELINE

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Infections with the influenza virus and Streptococcus pneumoniae are associated with ... .well as the potential benefit and the safety of the vaccine ..... 4.6 Antiviral agents for influenza A2 ... persons who are to travel to other areas, e.g. northern.

  11. Environmental Factors Influencing Epidemic Cholera

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jutla, Antarpreet; Whitcombe, Elizabeth; Hasan, Nur; Haley, Bradd; Akanda, Ali; Huq, Anwar; Alam, Munir; Sack, R. Bradley; Colwell, Rita

    2013-01-01

    Cholera outbreak following the earthquake of 2010 in Haiti has reaffirmed that the disease is a major public health threat. Vibrio cholerae is autochthonous to aquatic environment, hence, it cannot be eradicated but hydroclimatology-based prediction and prevention is an achievable goal. Using data from the 1800s, we describe uniqueness in seasonality and mechanism of occurrence of cholera in the epidemic regions of Asia and Latin America. Epidemic regions are located near regional rivers and are characterized by sporadic outbreaks, which are likely to be initiated during episodes of prevailing warm air temperature with low river flows, creating favorable environmental conditions for growth of cholera bacteria. Heavy rainfall, through inundation or breakdown of sanitary infrastructure, accelerates interaction between contaminated water and human activities, resulting in an epidemic. This causal mechanism is markedly different from endemic cholera where tidal intrusion of seawater carrying bacteria from estuary to inland regions, results in outbreaks. PMID:23897993

  12. Networked SIS Epidemics With Awareness

    KAUST Repository

    Paarporn, Keith

    2017-07-20

    We study a susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic process over a static contact network where the nodes have partial information about the epidemic state. They react by limiting their interactions with their neighbors when they believe the epidemic is currently prevalent. A node\\'s awareness is weighted by the fraction of infected neighbors in their social network, and a global broadcast of the fraction of infected nodes in the entire network. The dynamics of the benchmark (no awareness) and awareness models are described by discrete-time Markov chains, from which mean-field approximations (MFAs) are derived. The states of the MFA are interpreted as the nodes\\' probabilities of being infected. We show a sufficient condition for the existence of a

  13. Understanding Ebola: the 2014 epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaner, Jolie; Schaack, Sarah

    2016-09-13

    Near the end of 2013, an outbreak of Zaire ebolavirus (EBOV) began in Guinea, subsequently spreading to neighboring Liberia and Sierra Leone. As this epidemic grew, important public health questions emerged about how and why this outbreak was so different from previous episodes. This review provides a synthetic synopsis of the 2014-15 outbreak, with the aim of understanding its unprecedented spread. We present a summary of the history of previous epidemics, describe the structure and genetics of the ebolavirus, and review our current understanding of viral vectors and the latest treatment practices. We conclude with an analysis of the public health challenges epidemic responders faced and some of the lessons that could be applied to future outbreaks of Ebola or other viruses.

  14. Impact of A Waning Vaccine and Altered Behavior on the Spread of Influenza

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kasia A. Pawelek

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Influenza remains one of the major infectious diseases that targets humankind. Understanding within-host dynamics of the virus and how it translates into the spread of the disease at a population level can help us obtain more accurate disease outbreak predictions. We created an ordinary differential equation model with parameter estimates based on the disease symptoms score data to determine various disease stages and parameters associated with infectiousness and disease progression. Having various stages with different intensities of symptoms enables us to incorporate spontaneous behavior change due to the onset/offset of disease symptoms. Additionally, we incorporate the effect of a waning vaccine on delaying the time and decreasing the size of an epidemic peak. Our results showed that the epidemic peak in the model was significantly lowered when public vaccination was performed up to two months past the onset of an epidemic. Also, behavior change in the earliest stages of the epidemic lowers and delays the epidemic peak. This study further provides information on the potential impact of pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical interventions during an influenza epidemic.

  15. Influenza A (H1N1)pnd09 Vaccination of Pregnant Women and Immunological Consequences for Their Offspring

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bischoff, Anne Louise

    2013-01-01

    against H1N1pnd09 according to the EMEA criteria with a HI titre of 40 or greater. Women receiving the non-adjuvanted vaccine had significantly fewer local reactions but similar rates of systemic reactions as women receiving the adjuvanted vaccine. There were no reports of serious adverse events in any......Pregnant women experience increased influenza related morbidity and mortality during seasonal influenza epidemics, and even graver outcomes during influenza pandemics. Thus, even though the huge amount of data on clinical efficacy and effectiveness of influenza vaccine in pregnant women......, there is limited information on the details of the immunological responses to influenza immunization in pregnant versus non-pregnant. We had the unique opportunity to study the H1N1pnd09 vaccination of pregnant and non-pregnant women in our unselected, prospective, clinical pregnancy-cohort: the Copenhagen...

  16. [Analysis of risk factors of fatal outcome in pregnant and puerperant patients with severe H1N1 influenza].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zabolotskikh, I B; Penzhoian, G A; Musaeva, T S; Goncharenko, S I

    2010-01-01

    As well as previous epidemics and pandemias of influenza, the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemia increases the risk of severe illness in pregnant. Data were reported for 28 pregnant and 2 postpartum women who have been hospitalized in ICUs of Krasnodar Region with H1N1 influenza diagnosis. The laboratory tests for H1N1 were negative in 53.3% of suspected cases of H1N1 influenza (16 of 30). The major lethal risk factor in pregnant with H1N1 influenza is a development of septic shock with low PaO2\\FiO2 ratio (less than 140) and high Murray's Acute Lung Injury Score (higher than 2.5). High Apache II, Apache III, SAPS 2, SAPS 3 and SOFA scores are the additional lethal risk factors. Lethal outcomes were more frequent in the end of the second trimester of pregnancy.

  17. Combination Chemotherapy for Influenza

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert G. Webster

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available The emergence of pandemic H1N1 influenza viruses in April 2009 and the continuous evolution of highly pathogenic H5N1 influenza viruses underscore the urgency of novel approaches to chemotherapy for human influenza infection. Anti-influenza drugs are currently limited to the neuraminidase inhibitors (oseltamivir and zanamivir and to M2 ion channel blockers (amantadine and rimantadine, although resistance to the latter class develops rapidly. Potential targets for the development of new anti-influenza agents include the viral polymerase (and endonuclease, the hemagglutinin, and the non-structural protein NS1. The limitations of monotherapy and the emergence of drug-resistant variants make combination chemotherapy the logical therapeutic option. Here we review the experimental data on combination chemotherapy with currently available agents and the development of new agents and therapy targets.

  18. A data-driven model for influenza transmission incorporating media effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitchell, Lewis; Ross, Joshua V

    2016-10-01

    Numerous studies have attempted to model the effect of mass media on the transmission of diseases such as influenza; however, quantitative data on media engagement has until recently been difficult to obtain. With the recent explosion of 'big data' coming from online social media and the like, large volumes of data on a population's engagement with mass media during an epidemic are becoming available to researchers. In this study, we combine an online dataset comprising millions of shared messages relating to influenza with traditional surveillance data on flu activity to suggest a functional form for the relationship between the two. Using this data, we present a simple deterministic model for influenza dynamics incorporating media effects, and show that such a model helps explain the dynamics of historical influenza outbreaks. Furthermore, through model selection we show that the proposed media function fits historical data better than other media functions proposed in earlier studies.

  19. Multi-Omics Studies towards Novel Modulators of Influenza A Virus–Host Interaction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sandra Söderholm

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Human influenza A viruses (IAVs cause global pandemics and epidemics. These viruses evolve rapidly, making current treatment options ineffective. To identify novel modulators of IAV–host interactions, we re-analyzed our recent transcriptomics, metabolomics, proteomics, phosphoproteomics, and genomics/virtual ligand screening data. We identified 713 potential modulators targeting 199 cellular and two viral proteins. Anti-influenza activity for 48 of them has been reported previously, whereas the antiviral efficacy of the 665 remains unknown. Studying anti-influenza efficacy and immuno/neuro-modulating properties of these compounds and their combinations as well as potential viral and host resistance to them may lead to the discovery of novel modulators of IAV–host interactions, which might be more effective than the currently available anti-influenza therapeutics.

  20. Antiviral Efficacy of Verdinexor In Vivo in Two Animal Models of Influenza A Virus Infection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perwitasari, Olivia; Johnson, Scott; Yan, Xiuzhen; Register, Emery; Crabtree, Jackelyn; Gabbard, Jon; Howerth, Elizabeth; Shacham, Sharon; Carlson, Robert; Tamir, Sharon; Tripp, Ralph A.

    2016-01-01

    Influenza A virus (IAV) causes seasonal epidemics of respiratory illness that can cause mild to severe illness and potentially death. Antiviral drugs are an important countermeasure against IAV; however, drug resistance has developed, thus new therapeutic approaches are being sought. Previously, we demonstrated the antiviral activity of a novel nuclear export inhibitor drug, verdinexor, to reduce influenza replication in vitro and pulmonary virus burden in mice. In this study, in vivo efficacy of verdinexor was further evaluated in two animal models or influenza virus infection, mice and ferrets. In mice, verdinexor was efficacious to limit virus shedding, reduce pulmonary pro-inflammatory cytokine expression, and moderate leukocyte infiltration into the bronchoalveolar space. Similarly, verdinexor-treated ferrets had reduced lung pathology, virus burden, and inflammatory cytokine expression in the nasal wash exudate. These findings support the anti-viral efficacy of verdinexor, and warrant its development as a novel antiviral therapeutic for influenza infection. PMID:27893810

  1. Antiviral Efficacy of Verdinexor In Vivo in Two Animal Models of Influenza A Virus Infection.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olivia Perwitasari

    Full Text Available Influenza A virus (IAV causes seasonal epidemics of respiratory illness that can cause mild to severe illness and potentially death. Antiviral drugs are an important countermeasure against IAV; however, drug resistance has developed, thus new therapeutic approaches are being sought. Previously, we demonstrated the antiviral activity of a novel nuclear export inhibitor drug, verdinexor, to reduce influenza replication in vitro and pulmonary virus burden in mice. In this study, in vivo efficacy of verdinexor was further evaluated in two animal models or influenza virus infection, mice and ferrets. In mice, verdinexor was efficacious to limit virus shedding, reduce pulmonary pro-inflammatory cytokine expression, and moderate leukocyte infiltration into the bronchoalveolar space. Similarly, verdinexor-treated ferrets had reduced lung pathology, virus burden, and inflammatory cytokine expression in the nasal wash exudate. These findings support the anti-viral efficacy of verdinexor, and warrant its development as a novel antiviral therapeutic for influenza infection.

  2. Possible impact of global warming on the evolution of hemagglutinins from influenza a viruses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, Shaomin; Wu, Guang

    2011-02-01

    To determine if global warming has an impact on the evolution of hemagglutinins from influenza A viruses, because both global warming and influenza pandemics/epidemics threaten the world. 4 706 hemagglutinins from influenza A viruses sampled from 1956 to 2009 were converted to a time-series to show their evolutionary process and compared with the global, northern hemisphere and southern hemisphere temperatures, to determine if their trends run in similar or opposite directions. Point-to-point comparisons between temperature and quantified hemagglutinins were performed for all species and for the major prevailing species. The comparisons show that the trends for both hemagglutinin evolution and temperature change run in a similar direction. Global warming has a consistent and progressive impact on the hemagglutinin evolution of influenza A viruses.

  3. Epidemic spreading on interconnected networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saumell-Mendiola, Anna; Serrano, M Ángeles; Boguñá, Marián

    2012-08-01

    Many real networks are not isolated from each other but form networks of networks, often interrelated in nontrivial ways. Here, we analyze an epidemic spreading process taking place on top of two interconnected complex networks. We develop a heterogeneous mean-field approach that allows us to calculate the conditions for the emergence of an endemic state. Interestingly, a global endemic state may arise in the coupled system even though the epidemics is not able to propagate on each network separately and even when the number of coupling connections is small. Our analytic results are successfully confronted against large-scale numerical simulations.

  4. The narcissism epidemic is dead : Long live the narcissism epidemic

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wetzel, Eunike; Brown, Anna; Hill, Patrick; Chung, J.M.H.; Robins, R.W.; Roberts, B.W.

    2017-01-01

    Are recent cohorts of college students more narcissistic than their predecessors? To address debates about the so-called “narcissism epidemic,” we used data from three cohorts of students (N1990s = 1,166; N2000s = 33,647; N2010s = 25,412) to test whether narcissism levels (overall and specific

  5. IDENTIFICATION OF INFLUENZA VIRUSES IN HUMAN AND POULTRY IN THE AREA OF LARANGAN WET MARKET SIDOARJO-EAST JAVA, INDONESIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edith Frederika

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Background: Influenza is a viral infection that attacks the respiratory system (nose, throat, and lungs that commonly known as “flu”. There are 3 types ofinfluenza viruses, such as type A, type B, and type C. Influenza virus type A is the type ofvirus that can infect both human and animals, virus type B are normally found only in human, and Influenza virus type C can cause mild illness in human and not causing any epidemics or pandemics. Among these 3 types of influenza viruses, only influenza A viruses infect birds, particularly wild bird that are the natural host for all subtypes ofinfluenza A virus. Generally, those wild birds do not get sick when they are infected with influenza virus, unlike chickens or ducks which may die from avian influenza. Aim: In this study, we are identifying the influenza viruses among poultry in Larangan wet market. Method: Around 500 kinds ofpoultry were examined from cloacal swab. Result: Those samples were restrained with symptoms ofsuspected H5. The people who worked as the poultry-traders intact with the animal everyday were also examined, by taking nasopharyngeal swab and blood serum. Conclusion: Identification of influenza viruses was obtained to define the type and subtype ofinfluenza virus by PCR.

  6. [MPOWER--strategy for fighting the global tobacco epidemic].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaleta, Dorota; Kozieł, Anna; Miśkiewicz, Paulina

    2009-01-01

    It is estimated that tobacco use may cause death of 5 million people in 2008, which is higher than the number of deaths attributed to tuberculosis (TB), HIV/AIDS and malaria taken together. By 2030, the number of deaths related to the tobacco epidemic could exceed annually even 8 million. Despite many difficulties, a growing number of countries undertake intensive actions aimed at tobacco control. The objective of this paper was to discuss the major objectives of the MPOWER Report issued by the World Health Organization (WHO). The MPOWER package consists a set of six key and most effective strategies for fighting the global tobacco epidemic: 1) Monitoring tobacco consumption and the effectiveness of preventive measures; 2) Protect people from tobacco smoke; 3) Offer help to quit tobacco use; 4) Warn about the dangers of tobacco; 5) Enforce bans on tobacco advertising, promotion and sponsorship; and 6) Raise taxes on tobacco. It is proven that these strategies implemented in the compatible way, effectively decreases tobacco use. In addition, MPOWER comprises epidemiological data, information on implemented tobacco control measures and their efficiency. MPOWER is the only one document of a somewhat strategic nature that is a source of information on the spread of tobacco epidemic, as well as of suggestions concerning specific actions for supporting the fight against this epidemic.

  7. Unspecified gastroenteritis illness and deaths in the elderly associated with norovirus epidemics.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Asten, L. van; Siebenga, J.; Wijngaard, C. van den; Verheij, R.; Vliet, H. van; Kretzschmar, M.; Boshuizen, H.; Pelt, W. van; Koopmans, M.

    2011-01-01

    BACKGROUND: New variant strains of norovirus have emerged worldwide in recent years, evolving by mutation much like influenza viruses. These strains have been associated with a notable increase in the number of annual norovirus outbreaks. However, the impact of such increased norovirus activity on

  8. Unspecified gastroenteritis illness and deaths in the elderly associated with norovirus epidemics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Asten, van L.; Siebenga, J.; Wijngaard, van den C.; Verheij, R.; Vliet, van H.; Kretzschmar, M.; Boshuizen, H.C.; Pelt, van W.; Koopmans, M.

    2011-01-01

    Background: New variant strains of norovirus have emerged worldwide in recent years, evolving by mutation much like influenza viruses. These strains have been associated with a notable increase in the number of annual norovirus outbreaks. However, the impact of such increased norovirus activity on

  9. Effect of modelling slum populations on influenza spread in Delhi

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Jiangzhuo; Chu, Shuyu; Chungbaek, Youngyun; Khan, Maleq; Kuhlman, Christopher; Marathe, Achla; Mortveit, Henning; Vullikanti, Anil; Xie, Dawen

    2016-01-01

    Objectives This research studies the impact of influenza epidemic in the slum and non-slum areas of Delhi, the National Capital Territory of India, by taking proper account of slum demographics and residents’ activities, using a highly resolved social contact network of the 13.8 million residents of Delhi. Methods An SEIR model is used to simulate the spread of influenza on two different synthetic social contact networks of Delhi, one where slums and non-slums are treated the same in terms of their demographics and daily sets of activities and the other, where slum and non-slum regions have different attributes. Results Differences between the epidemic outcomes on the two networks are large. Time-to-peak infection is overestimated by several weeks, and the cumulative infection rate and peak infection rate are underestimated by 10–50%, when slum attributes are ignored. Conclusions Slum populations have a significant effect on influenza transmission in urban areas. Improper specification of slums in large urban regions results in underestimation of infections in the entire population and hence will lead to misguided interventions by policy planners. PMID:27687898

  10. Epidemic threshold in directed networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Cong; Wang, Huijuan; Van Mieghem, Piet

    2013-12-01

    Epidemics have so far been mostly studied in undirected networks. However, many real-world networks, such as the online social network Twitter and the world wide web, on which information, emotion, or malware spreads, are directed networks, composed of both unidirectional links and bidirectional links. We define the directionality ξ as the percentage of unidirectional links. The epidemic threshold τc for the susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) epidemic is lower bounded by 1/λ1 in directed networks, where λ1, also called the spectral radius, is the largest eigenvalue of the adjacency matrix. In this work, we propose two algorithms to generate directed networks with a given directionality ξ. The effect of ξ on the spectral radius λ1, principal eigenvector x1, spectral gap (λ1-λ2), and algebraic connectivity μN-1 is studied. Important findings are that the spectral radius λ1 decreases with the directionality ξ, whereas the spectral gap and the algebraic connectivity increase with the directionality ξ. The extent of the decrease of the spectral radius depends on both the degree distribution and the degree-degree correlation ρD. Hence, in directed networks, the epidemic threshold is larger and a random walk converges to its steady state faster than that in undirected networks with the same degree distribution.

  11. Epidemic Synchronization in Robotic Swarms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schiøler, Henrik; Nielsen, Jens Frederik Dalsgaard; Ngo, Trung Dung

    2009-01-01

    Clock synchronization in swarms of networked mobile robots is studied in a probabilistic, epidemic framework. In this setting communication and synchonization is considered to be a randomized process, taking place at unplanned instants of geographical rendezvous between robots. In combination...... as an infinite-dimensional optimal controlproblem. Illustrative numerical examples are given and commented....

  12. Stochastic Processes in Epidemic Theory

    CERN Document Server

    Lefèvre, Claude; Picard, Philippe

    1990-01-01

    This collection of papers gives a representative cross-selectional view of recent developments in the field. After a survey paper by C. Lefèvre, 17 other research papers look at stochastic modeling of epidemics, both from a theoretical and a statistical point of view. Some look more specifically at a particular disease such as AIDS, malaria, schistosomiasis and diabetes.

  13. The First American Cocaine Epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Courtwright, David T.

    1991-01-01

    Discusses the wave of cocaine abuse that followed the drug's recommendation by the late nineteenth-century medical community as a cure all. Details drug addiction among ethnic and social groups at the turn of the century. Warns that drug epidemics have important social and legal consequences. Suggests legal pressure may alter the form of drug…

  14. Epidemic Synchronization in Robotic Swarms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schiøler, Henrik; Nielsen, Jens Frederik Dalsgaard; Ngo, Trung Dung

    2009-01-01

    Clock synchronization in swarms of networked mobile robots is studied in a probabilistic, epidemic framework. In this setting communication and synchonization is considered to be a randomized process, taking place at unplanned instants of geographical rendezvous between robots. In combination wit...

  15. Epidemics in adaptive networks with community structure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shaw, Leah; Tunc, Ilker

    2010-03-01

    Models for epidemic spread on static social networks do not account for changes in individuals' social interactions. Recent studies of adaptive networks have modeled avoidance behavior, as non-infected individuals try to avoid contact with infectives. Such models have not generally included realistic social structure. Here we study epidemic spread on an adaptive network with community structure. We model the effect of heterogeneous communities on infection levels and epidemic extinction. We also show how an epidemic can alter the community structure.

  16. Avian influenza: a review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, Jennifer K; Noppenberger, Jennifer

    2007-01-15

    A review of the avian influenza A/H5N1 virus, including human cases, viral transmission, clinical features, vaccines and antivirals, surveillance plans, infection control, and emergency response plans, is presented. The World Health Organization (WHO) considers the avian influenza A/H5N1 virus a public health risk with pandemic potential. The next human influenza pandemic, if caused by the avian influenza A/H5N1 virus, is estimated to have a potential mortality rate of more than a hundred million. Outbreaks in poultry have been associated with human transmission. WHO has documented 258 confirmed human infections with a mortality rate greater than 50%. Bird-to-human transmission of the avian influenza virus is likely by the oral-fecal route. The most effective defense against an influenza pandemic would be a directed vaccine to elicit a specific immune response toward the strain or strains of the influenza virus. However, until there is an influenza pandemic, there is no evidence that vaccines or antivirals used in the treatment or prevention of such an outbreak would decrease morbidity or mortality. Surveillance of the bird and human populations for the highly pathogenic H5N1 is being conducted. Infection-control measures and an emergency response plan are discussed. Avian influenza virus A/H5N1 is a public health threat that has the potential to cause serious illness and death in humans. Understanding its pathology, transmission, clinical features, and pharmacologic treatments and preparing for the prevention and management of its outbreak will help avoid its potentially devastating consequences.

  17. Influenza in outpatient ILI case-patients in national hospital-based surveillance, Bangladesh, 2007-2008.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rashid Uz Zaman

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Recent population-based estimates in a Dhaka low-income community suggest that influenza was prevalent among children. To explore the epidemiology and seasonality of influenza throughout the country and among all age groups, we established nationally representative hospital-based surveillance necessary to guide influenza prevention and control efforts.We conducted influenza-like illness and severe acute respiratory illness sentinel surveillance in 12 hospitals across Bangladesh during May 2007-December 2008. We collected specimens from 3,699 patients, 385 (10% which were influenza positive by real time RT-PCR. Among the sample-positive patients, 192 (51% were type A and 188 (49% were type B. Hemagglutinin subtyping of type A viruses detected 137 (71% A/H1 and 55 (29% A/H3, but no A/H5 or other novel influenza strains. The frequency of influenza cases was highest among children aged under 5 years (44%, while the proportions of laboratory confirmed cases was highest among participants aged 11-15 (18%. We applied kriging, a geo-statistical technique, to explore the spatial and temporal spread of influenza and found that, during 2008, influenza was first identified in large port cities and then gradually spread to other parts of the country. We identified a distinct influenza peak during the rainy season (May-September.Our surveillance data confirms that influenza is prevalent throughout Bangladesh, affecting a wide range of ages and causing considerable morbidity and hospital care. A unimodal influenza seasonality may allow Bangladesh to time annual influenza prevention messages and vaccination campaigns to reduce the national influenza burden. To scale-up such national interventions, we need to quantify the national rates of influenza and the economic burden associated with this disease through further studies.

  18. Heroin epidemics, treatment and ODE modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, Emma; Comiskey, Catherine

    2007-07-01

    The UN [United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC): World Drug Report, 2005, vol. 1: Analysis. UNODC, 2005.], EU [European Monitoring Centre for Drugs and Drug Addiction (EMCDDA): Annual Report, 2005.http://annualreport.emcdda.eu.int/en/home-en.html.] and WHO [World Health Organisation (WHO): Biregional Strategy for Harm Reduction, 2005-2009. HIV and Injecting Drug Use. WHO, 2005.] have consistently highlighted in recent years the ongoing and persistent nature of opiate and particularly heroin use on a global scale. While this is a global phenomenon, authors have emphasised the significant impact such an epidemic has on individual lives and on society. National prevalence studies have indicated the scale of the problem, but the drug-using career, typically consisting of initiation, habitual use, a treatment-relapse cycle and eventual recovery, is not well understood. This paper presents one of the first ODE models of opiate addiction, based on the principles of mathematical epidemiology. The aim of this model is to identify parameters of interest for further study, with a view to informing and assisting policy-makers in targeting prevention and treatment resources for maximum effectiveness. An epidemic threshold value, R(0), is proposed for the drug-using career. Sensitivity analysis is performed on R(0) and it is then used to examine the stability of the system. A condition under which a backward bifurcation may exist is found, as are conditions that permit the existence of one or more endemic equilibria. A key result arising from this model is that prevention is indeed better than cure.

  19. A study of the swine flu (H1N1 epidemic among health care providers of a medical college hospital of Delhi

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    Om Prakash Rajoura

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Influenza viruses cause annual epidemics and occasional pandemics that have claimed the lives of millions. Understanding the role of specific perceptions in motivating people to engage in precautionary behavior may help health communicators to improve their messages about outbreaks of new infectious disease generally and swine flu specifically. Objectives: To study the knowledge and practices of health care providers regarding swine flu and to study the attitudes and practices of health care providers toward the prevention of the swine flu epidemic. Materials and Methods: The present study was a cross-sectional (descriptive study and was conducted in the month of September, 2009, among doctors and nurses. A maximum of 40% of the total health care providers of GTB Hospital were covered because of feasibility and logistics, and, therefore, the sample size was 334. Results: Around 75% of the health care providers were aware about the symptoms of swine flu. Mostly, all study subjects were aware that it is transmitted through droplet infection. Correct knowledge of the incubation period of swine flu was known to 80% of the doctors and 69% of the nurses. Knowledge about high-risk groups (contacts, travelers, health care providers was observed among 88% of the doctors and 78.8% of the nurses. Practice of wearing mask during duty hours was observed among 82.6% of doctors and 85% of nurses, whereas of the total study population, only 40% were correctly using mask during duty hours. Conclusions: Significant gaps observed between knowledge and actual practice of the Health Care Provider regarding swine flu need to be filled by appropriate training. Data indicate that the health care providers are very intellectual, but they do not themselves practice what they preach.

  20. Pandemic influenza – including a risk assessment of H5N1

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taubenberger, J.K.; Morens, D.M.

    2009-01-01

    Summary Influenza pandemics and epidemics have apparently occurred since at least the Middle Ages. When pandemics appear, 50% or more of an affected population can be infected in a single year, and the number of deaths caused by influenza can dramatically exceed what is normally expected. Since 1500, there appear to have been 13 or more influenza pandemics. In the past 120 years there were undoubted pandemics in 1889, 1918, 1957, 1968, and 1977. Although most experts believe we will face another influenza pandemic, it is impossible to predict when it will appear, where it will originate, or how severe it will be. Nor is there agreement about the subtype of influenza virus most likely to cause the next pandemic. The continuing spread of H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses has heightened interest in pandemic prediction. Despite uncertainties in the historical record of the pre-virology era, study of previous pandemics may help guide future pandemic planning and lead to a better understanding of the complex ecobiology underlying the formation of pandemic strains of influenza A viruses. PMID:19618626

  1. Pandemic influenza--including a risk assessment of H5N1.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taubenberger, J K; Morens, D M

    2009-04-01

    Influenza pandemics and epidemics have apparently occurred since at least the Middle Ages. When pandemics appear, 50% or more of an affected population can be infected in a single year, and the number of deaths caused by influenza can dramatically exceed what is normally expected. Since 1500, there appear to have been 13 or more influenza pandemics. In the past 120 years there were undoubted pandemics in 1889, 1918, 1957, 1968, and 1977. Although most experts believe we will face another influenza pandemic, it is impossible to predict when it will appear, where it will originate, or how severe it will be. Nor is there agreement about the subtype of influenza virus most likely to cause the next pandemic. The continuing spread of H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses has heightened interest in pandemic prediction. Despite uncertainties in the historical record of the pre-virology era, study of previous pandemics may help guide future pandemic planning and lead to a better understanding of the complex ecobiology underlying the formation of pandemic strains of influenza A viruses.

  2. New treatments for influenza

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Barik Sailen

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Influenza has a long history of causing morbidity and mortality in the human population through routine seasonal spread and global pandemics. The high mutation rate of the RNA genome of the influenza virus, combined with assortment of its multiple genomic segments, promote antigenic diversity and new subtypes, allowing the virus to evade vaccines and become resistant to antiviral drugs. There is thus a continuing need for new anti-influenza therapy using novel targets and creative strategies. In this review, we summarize prospective future therapeutic regimens based on recent molecular and genomic discoveries.

  3. New treatments for influenza.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barik, Sailen

    2012-09-13

    Influenza has a long history of causing morbidity and mortality in the human population through routine seasonal spread and global pandemics. The high mutation rate of the RNA genome of the influenza virus, combined with assortment of its multiple genomic segments, promote antigenic diversity and new subtypes, allowing the virus to evade vaccines and become resistant to antiviral drugs. There is thus a continuing need for new anti-influenza therapy using novel targets and creative strategies. In this review, we summarize prospective future therapeutic regimens based on recent molecular and genomic discoveries.

  4. Epidemics spreading in interconnected complex networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Y.; Xiao, G.

    2012-01-01

    We study epidemic spreading in two interconnected complex networks. It is found that in our model the epidemic threshold of the interconnected network is always lower than that in any of the two component networks. Detailed theoretical analysis is proposed which allows quick and accurate calculations of epidemic threshold and average outbreak/epidemic size. Theoretical analysis and simulation results show that, generally speaking, the epidemic size is not significantly affected by the inter-network correlation. In interdependent networks which can be viewed as a special case of interconnected networks, however, impacts of inter-network correlation on the epidemic threshold and outbreak size are more significant. -- Highlights: ► We study epidemic spreading in two interconnected complex networks. ► The epidemic threshold is lower than that in any of the two networks. And Interconnection correlation has impacts on threshold and average outbreak size. ► Detailed theoretical analysis is proposed which allows quick and accurate calculations of epidemic threshold and average outbreak/epidemic size. ► We demonstrated and proved that Interconnection correlation does not affect epidemic size significantly. ► In interdependent networks, impacts of inter-network correlation on the epidemic threshold and outbreak size are more significant.

  5. Epidemics spreading in interconnected complex networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Y. [School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore 639798 (Singapore); Institute of High Performance Computing, Agency for Science, Technology and Research (A-STAR), Singapore 138632 (Singapore); Xiao, G., E-mail: egxxiao@ntu.edu.sg [School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore 639798 (Singapore)

    2012-09-03

    We study epidemic spreading in two interconnected complex networks. It is found that in our model the epidemic threshold of the interconnected network is always lower than that in any of the two component networks. Detailed theoretical analysis is proposed which allows quick and accurate calculations of epidemic threshold and average outbreak/epidemic size. Theoretical analysis and simulation results show that, generally speaking, the epidemic size is not significantly affected by the inter-network correlation. In interdependent networks which can be viewed as a special case of interconnected networks, however, impacts of inter-network correlation on the epidemic threshold and outbreak size are more significant. -- Highlights: ► We study epidemic spreading in two interconnected complex networks. ► The epidemic threshold is lower than that in any of the two networks. And Interconnection correlation has impacts on threshold and average outbreak size. ► Detailed theoretical analysis is proposed which allows quick and accurate calculations of epidemic threshold and average outbreak/epidemic size. ► We demonstrated and proved that Interconnection correlation does not affect epidemic size significantly. ► In interdependent networks, impacts of inter-network correlation on the epidemic threshold and outbreak size are more significant.

  6. Economic burden of influenza-associated hospitalizations and outpatient visits in Bangladesh during 2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhuiyan, Mejbah U; Luby, Stephen P; Alamgir, Nadia I; Homaira, Nusrat; Mamun, Abdullah A; Khan, Jahangir A M; Abedin, Jaynal; Sturm-Ramirez, Katharine; Gurley, Emily S; Zaman, Rashid U; Alamgir, ASM; Rahman, Mahmudur; Widdowson, Marc-Alain; Azziz-Baumgartner, Eduardo

    2014-01-01

    Objective Understanding the costs of influenza-associated illness in Bangladesh may help health authorities assess the cost-effectiveness of influenza prevention programs. We estimated the annual economic burden of influenza-associated hospitalizations and outpatient visits in Bangladesh. Design From May through October 2010, investigators identified both outpatients and inpatients at four tertiary hospitals with laboratory-confirmed influenza infection through rRT-PCR. Research assistants visited case-patients' homes within 30 days of hospital visit/discharge and administered a structured questionnaire to capture direct medical costs (physician consultation, hospital bed, medicines and diagnostic tests), direct non-medical costs (food, lodging and travel) and indirect costs (case-patients' and caregivers' lost income). We used WHO-Choice estimates for routine healthcare service costs. We added direct, indirect and healthcare service costs to calculate cost-per-episode. We used median cost-per-episode, published influenza-associated outpatient and hospitalization rates and Bangladesh census data to estimate the annual economic burden of influenza-associated illnesses in 2010. Results We interviewed 132 outpatients and 41 hospitalized patients. The median cost of an influenza-associated outpatient visit was US$4.80 (IQR = 2.93–8.11) and an influenza-associated hospitalization was US$82.20 (IQR = 59.96–121.56). We estimated that influenza-associated outpatient visits resulted in US$108 million (95% CI: 76–147) in direct costs and US$59 million (95% CI: 37–91) in indirect costs; influenza-associated hospitalizations resulted in US$1.4 million (95% CI: 0.4–2.6) in direct costs and US$0.4 million (95% CI: 0.1–0.8) in indirect costs in 2010. Conclusions In Bangladesh, influenza-associated illnesses caused an estimated US$169 million in economic loss in 2010, largely driven by frequent but low-cost outpatient visits. PMID:24750586

  7. Low uptake of influenza vaccine among university students: evaluating predictors beyond cost and safety concerns.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bednarczyk, Robert A; Chu, Samantha L; Sickler, Heather; Shaw, Jana; Nadeau, Jessica A; McNutt, Louise-Anne

    2015-03-30

    Annual influenza vaccine coverage for young adults (including college students) remains low, despite a 2011 US recommendation for annual immunization of all people 6 months and older. College students are at high risk for influenza morbidity given close living and social spaces and extended travel during semester breaks when influenza circulation typically increases. We evaluated influenza vaccine uptake following an on-campus vaccine campaign at a large, public New York State university. Consecutive students visiting the University Health Center were recruited for a self-administered, anonymous, written survey. Students were asked about recent influenza vaccination, barriers to influenza vaccination, and willingness to get vaccinated to protect other vulnerable individuals they may encounter. Frequencies and proportions were evaluated. Of 653 students approached, 600 completed surveys (92% response proportion); respondents were primarily female (61%) and non-Hispanic white (59%). Influenza vaccine coverage was low (28%). Compared to coverage among non-Hispanic white students (30%), coverage was similar among Hispanic (30%) and other race/ethnicity students (28%) and lowest among non-Hispanic black students (17%). Among the unvaccinated, the most commonly selected vaccination barriers were "Too lazy to get the vaccine" (32%) and "Don't need the vaccine because I'm healthy" (29%); 6% of unvaccinated students cited cost as a barrier. After being informed that influenza vaccination of young, healthy people can protect other vulnerable individuals (e.g., infants, elderly), 71% of unvaccinated students indicated this would increase their willingness to get vaccinated. Influenza vaccine uptake among college students is very low. While making vaccine easily obtained may increase vaccine uptake, college students need to be motivated to get vaccinated. Typically healthy students may not perceive a need for influenza vaccine. Education about vaccinating healthy individuals

  8. Statistical estimates of absenteeism attributable to seasonal and pandemic influenza from the Canadian Labour Force Survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schanzer, Dena L; Zheng, Hui; Gilmore, Jason

    2011-04-12

    As many respiratory viruses are responsible for influenza like symptoms, accurate measures of the disease burden are not available and estimates are generally based on statistical methods. The objective of this study was to estimate absenteeism rates and hours lost due to seasonal influenza and compare these estimates with estimates of absenteeism attributable to the two H1N1 pandemic waves that occurred in 2009. Key absenteeism variables were extracted from Statistics Canada's monthly labour force survey (LFS). Absenteeism and the proportion of hours lost due to own illness or disability were modelled as a function of trend, seasonality and proxy variables for influenza activity from 1998 to 2009. Hours lost due to the H1N1/09 pandemic strain were elevated compared to seasonal influenza, accounting for a loss of 0.2% of potential hours worked annually. In comparison, an estimated 0.08% of hours worked annually were lost due to seasonal influenza illnesses. Absenteeism rates due to influenza were estimated at 12% per year for seasonal influenza over the 1997/98 to 2008/09 seasons, and 13% for the two H1N1/09 pandemic waves. Employees who took time off due to a seasonal influenza infection took an average of 14 hours off. For the pandemic strain, the average absence was 25 hours. This study confirms that absenteeism due to seasonal influenza has typically ranged from 5% to 20%, with higher rates associated with multiple circulating strains. Absenteeism rates for the 2009 pandemic were similar to those occurring for seasonal influenza. Employees took more time off due to the pandemic strain than was typical for seasonal influenza.

  9. Statistical estimates of absenteeism attributable to seasonal and pandemic influenza from the Canadian Labour Force Survey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zheng Hui

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background As many respiratory viruses are responsible for influenza like symptoms, accurate measures of the disease burden are not available and estimates are generally based on statistical methods. The objective of this study was to estimate absenteeism rates and hours lost due to seasonal influenza and compare these estimates with estimates of absenteeism attributable to the two H1N1 pandemic waves that occurred in 2009. Methods Key absenteeism variables were extracted from Statistics Canada's monthly labour force survey (LFS. Absenteeism and the proportion of hours lost due to own illness or disability were modelled as a function of trend, seasonality and proxy variables for influenza activity from 1998 to 2009. Results Hours lost due to the H1N1/09 pandemic strain were elevated compared to seasonal influenza, accounting for a loss of 0.2% of potential hours worked annually. In comparison, an estimated 0.08% of hours worked annually were lost due to seasonal influenza illnesses. Absenteeism rates due to influenza were estimated at 12% per year for seasonal influenza over the 1997/98 to 2008/09 seasons, and 13% for the two H1N1/09 pandemic waves. Employees who took time off due to a seasonal influenza infection took an average of 14 hours off. For the pandemic strain, the average absence was 25 hours. Conclusions This study confirms that absenteeism due to seasonal influenza has typically ranged from 5% to 20%, with higher rates associated with multiple circulating strains. Absenteeism rates for the 2009 pandemic were similar to those occurring for seasonal influenza. Employees took more time off due to the pandemic strain than was typical for seasonal influenza.

  10. Statistical estimates of absenteeism attributable to seasonal and pandemic influenza from the Canadian Labour Force Survey

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-01

    Background As many respiratory viruses are responsible for influenza like symptoms, accurate measures of the disease burden are not available and estimates are generally based on statistical methods. The objective of this study was to estimate absenteeism rates and hours lost due to seasonal influenza and compare these estimates with estimates of absenteeism attributable to the two H1N1 pandemic waves that occurred in 2009. Methods Key absenteeism variables were extracted from Statistics Canada's monthly labour force survey (LFS). Absenteeism and the proportion of hours lost due to own illness or disability were modelled as a function of trend, seasonality and proxy variables for influenza activity from 1998 to 2009. Results Hours lost due to the H1N1/09 pandemic strain were elevated compared to seasonal influenza, accounting for a loss of 0.2% of potential hours worked annually. In comparison, an estimated 0.08% of hours worked annually were lost due to seasonal influenza illnesses. Absenteeism rates due to influenza were estimated at 12% per year for seasonal influenza over the 1997/98 to 2008/09 seasons, and 13% for the two H1N1/09 pandemic waves. Employees who took time off due to a seasonal influenza infection took an average of 14 hours off. For the pandemic strain, the average absence was 25 hours. Conclusions This study confirms that absenteeism due to seasonal influenza has typically ranged from 5% to 20%, with higher rates associated with multiple circulating strains. Absenteeism rates for the 2009 pandemic were similar to those occurring for seasonal influenza. Employees took more time off due to the pandemic strain than was typical for seasonal influenza. PMID:21486453

  11. The Scourge of Asian Flu: In Utero Exposure to Pandemic Influenza and the Development of a Cohort of British Children

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelly, Elaine

    2011-01-01

    This paper examines the impact of in utero exposure to the Asian influenza pandemic of 1957 upon childhood development. Outcome data are provided by the National Child Development Study (NCDS), a panel study where all members were potentially exposed in the womb. Epidemic effects are identified using geographic variation in a surrogate measure of…

  12. Outdoor ranging of poultry: a major risk factor for the introduction and development of high pathogenicity Avian Influenza

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Koch, G.; Elbers, A.R.W.

    2006-01-01

    High-Pathogenicity Avian Influenza (HPAI) is an extremely infectious viral disease of poultry. Public health concerns were raised when six persons died in Hong Kong in 1997 after exposure to HPAI-infected poultry. Its danger became imminent in the recent HPAI epidemic in South-East Asia when the

  13. Mortality attributable to pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 in San Luis Potosí, Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Comas‐García, Andreu; García‐Sepúlveda, Christian A.; Méndez‐de Lira, José J.; Aranda‐Romo, Saray; Hernández‐Salinas, Alba E.; Noyola, Daniel E.

    2010-01-01

    Please cite this paper as: Comas‐García et al. (2011) Mortality attributable to pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 in San Luis Potosí, Mexico. Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses 5(2), 76–82. Background  Acute respiratory infections are a leading cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. Starting in 2009, pandemic influenza A(H1N1) 2009 virus has become one of the leading respiratory pathogens worldwide. However, the overall impact of this virus as a cause of mortality has not been clearly defined. Objectives  To determine the impact of pandemic influenza A(H1N1) 2009 on mortality in a Mexican population. Methods  We assessed the impact of pandemic influenza virus on mortality during the first and second outbreaks in San Luis Potosí, Mexico, and compared it to mortality associated with seasonal influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) during the previous winter seasons. Results  We estimated that, on average, 8·1% of all deaths that occurred during the 2003–2009 seasons were attributable to influenza and RSV. During the first pandemic influenza A(H1N1) 2009 outbreak, there was an increase in mortality in persons 5–59 years of age, but not during the second outbreak (Fall of 2009). Overall, pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 outbreaks had similar effects on mortality to those associated with seasonal influenza virus epidemics. Conclusions  The impact of influenza A(H1N1) 2009 virus on mortality during the first year of the pandemic was similar to that observed for seasonal influenza. The establishment of real‐time surveillance systems capable of integrating virological, morbidity, and mortality data may result in the timely identification of outbreaks so as to allow for the institution of appropriate control measures to reduce the impact of emerging pathogens on the population. PMID:21306570

  14. Risk maps for the spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza in poultry.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gert Jan Boender

    2007-04-01

    Full Text Available Devastating epidemics of highly contagious animal diseases such as avian influenza, classical swine fever, and foot-and-mouth disease underline the need for improved understanding of the factors promoting the spread of these pathogens. Here the authors present a spatial analysis of the between-farm transmission of a highly pathogenic H7N7 avian influenza virus that caused a large epidemic in The Netherlands in 2003. The authors developed a method to estimate key parameters determining the spread of highly transmissible animal diseases between farms based on outbreak data. The method allows for the identification of high-risk areas for propagating spread in an epidemiologically underpinned manner. A central concept is the transmission kernel, which determines the probability of pathogen transmission from infected to uninfected farms as a function of interfarm distance. The authors show how an estimate of the transmission kernel naturally provides estimates of the critical farm density and local reproduction numbers, which allows one to evaluate the effectiveness of control strategies. For avian influenza, the analyses show that there are two poultry-dense areas in The Netherlands where epidemic spread is possible, and in which local control measures are unlikely to be able to halt an unfolding epidemic. In these regions an epidemic can only be brought to an end by the depletion of susceptible farms by infection or massive culling. The analyses provide an estimate of the spatial range over which highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses spread between farms, and emphasize that control measures aimed at controlling such outbreaks need to take into account the local density of farms.

  15. Effectiveness of travel restrictions in the rapid containment of human influenza: a systematic review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mateus, Ana LP; Otete, Harmony E; Beck, Charles R; Dolan, Gayle P; Nguyen-Van-Tam, Jonathan S

    2014-01-01

    Abstract Objective To assess the effectiveness of internal and international travel restrictions in the rapid containment of influenza. Methods We conducted a systematic review according to the requirements of the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses statement. Health-care databases and grey literature were searched and screened for records published before May 2014. Data extraction and assessments of risk of bias were undertaken by two researchers independently. Results were synthesized in a narrative form. Findings The overall risk of bias in the 23 included studies was low to moderate. Internal travel restrictions and international border restrictions delayed the spread of influenza epidemics by one week and two months, respectively. International travel restrictions delayed the spread and peak of epidemics by periods varying between a few days and four months. Travel restrictions reduced the incidence of new cases by less than 3%. Impact was reduced when restrictions were implemented more than six weeks after the notification of epidemics or when the level of transmissibility was high. Travel restrictions would have minimal impact in urban centres with dense populations and travel networks. We found no evidence that travel restrictions would contain influenza within a defined geographical area. Conclusion Extensive travel restrictions may delay the dissemination of influenza but cannot prevent it. The evidence does not support travel restrictions as an isolated intervention for the rapid containment of influenza. Travel restrictions would make an extremely limited contribution to any policy for rapid containment of influenza at source during the first emergence of a pandemic virus. PMID:25552771

  16. Effectiveness and Cost-Benefit of an Influenza Vaccination Program for Health Care Workers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Annalee Yassi

    1991-01-01

    Full Text Available This study retrospectively reviewed the effectiveness of a vaccination program for hospital workers in a large tertiary care hospital, quantified influenza-induced absenteeism, and examined the factors determining the costs and benefits of this program. Absenteeism among high risk hospital workers was increased by 35% (P=0.001 during the virulent influenza epidemic of 1987–88. Benefits, measured as the value of sick time avoided, compared with costs, including materials, occupational nursing staff time, employee time during vaccination, and time lost due to adverse reactions, revealed a net benefit of $39.23 per vaccinated employee. Sensitivity analyses highlighted vaccine efficacy and absenteeism due to influenza and adverse reactions to vaccination as the most important factors; with time lost due to adverse reactions as much as 0.013 days per vaccinated employee and a vaccine efficacy of 70%, net positive benefits could be achieved if influenza-induced absenteeism is 0.5% or greater of paid employee time during the epidemic season. The results suggested that the net cost-benefit of a hospital employee vaccination program to decrease both employee morbidity and nosocomial influenza among patients, would be increased by active promotion of the vaccination program, especially for employees in high risk areas.

  17. Some Observations on Naso-pharyngeal Epidemics in Public Schools.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glover, J A

    1928-07-01

    Over 80 per cent. of school sickness, whether judged by the number of cases or by the time lost, is transmitted by "droplet" infection.The alleged increase in sickness in public schools is partly apparent, due to increased attention to minor febricula and partly real, due (1) to increased influenza prevalence, the aftermath of the great epidemic of 1918, and (2) to the increased demand for public school education leading to pressure upon accommodation, and especially to overcrowding in dormitories.The bulk of the droplet infections are accounted for by (1) influenza; (2) feverish cold, chill, or P.U.O.; (3) tonsillitis; regular infectious diseases make a comparatively small showing. The incidence and bacteriological findings and the variations in the incidence of pneumonia and otitis media are discussed. Are these complications really secondary epidemics? Tonsillitis, bacteriological findings, milk.Prophylaxis.-Efficacy of vaccines uncertain. Some evidence that they may diminish the onset of complications. If given vaccines should be administered before the danger period, i.e., not later than November.Intensive prophylaxia other than vaccines during the first half of the Lent term would probably amply repay any trouble. It should include:-(a) Special efforts to prevent boys returning to school after the Christmas holidays infected with influenza or febricula.(b) Temperature taking for three weeks.(c) Immediate isolation of all pyrexias and catarrhs.(d) No work before breakfast for at least the first six weeks of the term.(e) All hot baths and showers taken during the day or after games to be followed by cold showers.(f) Prevention of chill in watching games, etc.(g) Increased provision for drying clothes, uniforms and boots.Infection mainly takes place in sleeping quarters, and proper spacing out of beds and thorough "cross" ventilation in dormitories is of paramount importance; instances of cross infection due to proximity of beds; illustrated by bed charts and

  18. Stabilization of influenza vaccine enhances protection by microneedle delivery in the mouse skin.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fu-Shi Quan

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available Simple and effective vaccine administration is particularly important for annually recommended influenza vaccination. We hypothesized that vaccine delivery to the skin using a patch containing vaccine-coated microneedles could be an attractive approach to improve influenza vaccination compliance and efficacy.Solid microneedle arrays coated with inactivated influenza vaccine were prepared for simple vaccine delivery to the skin. However, the stability of the influenza vaccine, as measured by hemagglutination activity, was found to be significantly damaged during microneedle coating. The addition of trehalose to the microneedle coating formulation retained hemagglutination activity, indicating stabilization of the coated influenza vaccine. For both intramuscular and microneedle skin immunization, delivery of un-stabilized vaccine yielded weaker protective immune responses including viral neutralizing antibodies, protective efficacies, and recall immune responses to influenza virus. Immunization using un-stabilized vaccine also shifted the pattern of antibody isotypes compared to the stabilized vaccine. Importantly, a single microneedle-based vaccination using stabilized influenza vaccine was found to be superior to intramuscular immunization in controlling virus replication as well as in inducing rapid recall immune responses post challenge.The functional integrity of hemagglutinin is associated with inducing improved protective immunity against influenza. Simple microneedle influenza vaccination in the skin produced superior protection compared to conventional intramuscular immunization. This approach is likely to be applicable to other vaccines too.

  19. Influenza nucleoprotein delivered with aluminium salts protects mice from an influenza A virus that expresses an altered nucleoprotein sequence.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Megan K L Macleod

    Full Text Available Influenza virus poses a difficult challenge for protective immunity. This virus is adept at altering its surface proteins, the proteins that are the targets of neutralizing antibody. Consequently, each year a new vaccine must be developed to combat the current recirculating strains. A universal influenza vaccine that primes specific memory cells that recognise conserved parts of the virus could prove to be effective against both annual influenza variants and newly emergent potentially pandemic strains. Such a vaccine will have to contain a safe and effective adjuvant that can be used in individuals of all ages. We examine protection from viral challenge in mice vaccinated with the nucleoprotein from the PR8 strain of influenza A, a protein that is highly conserved across viral subtypes. Vaccination with nucleoprotein delivered with a universally used and safe adjuvant, composed of insoluble aluminium salts, provides protection against viruses that either express the same or an altered version of nucleoprotein. This protection correlated with the presence of nucleoprotein specific CD8 T cells in the lungs of infected animals at early time points after infection. In contrast, immunization with NP delivered with alum and the detoxified LPS adjuvant, monophosphoryl lipid A, provided some protection to the homologous viral strain but no protection against infection by influenza expressing a variant nucleoprotein. Together, these data point towards a vaccine solution for all influenza A subtypes.

  20. Influenza and IBD

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... to person worldwide, most likely in a similar fashion to regular seasonal influenza viruses. For the this ... endorsement of a particular individual, group, company or product. Related Resources Order Patient Brochures Education & Support for ...

  1. Avian Influenza in Birds

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... the United States Department of Agriculture’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service . Surveillance for Avian Influenza CDC, ... maintained by: Office of the Associate Director for Communication, Digital Media Branch, Division of Public Affairs Email ...

  2. Vaccination against seasonal influenza

    CERN Multimedia

    DG Unit

    2009-01-01

    As every year, the Medical Service is taking part in the campaign to promote vaccination against seasonal influenza. Vaccination against seasonal influenza is especially recommended for people suffering from chronic lung, cardio-vascular or kidney conditions or diabetes, for those recovering from a serious illness or surgical operation and for everyone over the age of 65. The influenza virus is transmitted by air and contact with contaminated surfaces, hence the importance of washing hands regularly with soap and / or disinfection using a hydro-alcoholic solution. From the onset of symptoms (fever> 38°, chills, cough, muscle aches and / or joint pain, fatigue) you are strongly recommended to stay at home to avoid spreading the virus. In the present context of the influenza A (H1N1) pandemic, it is important to dissociate these two illnesses and emphasise that the two viruses and the vaccines used to combat them are quite different and that protection against one will not pr...

  3. Vírus influenza

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fernanda de-Paris

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Um dos registros mais antigos da gripe descrita como doença é de autoria de Hipócrates, em meados do ano 412 a.C. Desta forma, seu agente etiológico, o vírus influenza, tem circulação entre a população humana há muito tempo.  Entretanto, o primeiro isolamento do vírus influenza humano ocorreu somente em 1933, realizado por Smith, Andrewes e Laidlaw, pesquisadores do “National Institute for Medical Research” – Londres. Este vírus isolado foi considerado o primeiro vírus influenza humano e denominado de “influenza A”.

  4. Challenges and Strategies of Laboratory Diagnosis for Newly Emerging Influenza Viruses in Taiwan: A Decade after SARS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jih-Hui Lin

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Since the first case of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS in Taiwan was identified in March 2003, viral respiratory infections, in particular the influenza virus, have become a national public health concern. Taiwan would face a serious threat of public health problems if another SARS epidemic overlapped with a flu outbreak. After SARS, the Taiwan Centers for Disease Control accelerated and strengthened domestic research on influenza and expanded the exchange of information with international counterparts. The capacity of influenza A to cross species barriers presents a potential threat to human health. Given the mutations of avian flu viruses such as H7N9, H6N1, and H10N8, all countries, including Taiwan, must equip themselves to face a possible epidemic or pandemic. Such preparedness requires global collaboration.

  5. Memory T Cells Generated by Prior Exposure to Influenza Cross React with the Novel H7N9 Influenza Virus and Confer Protective Heterosubtypic Immunity

    Science.gov (United States)

    McMaster, Sean R.; Gabbard, Jon D.; Koutsonanos, Dimitris G.; Compans, Richard W.; Tripp, Ralph A.; Tompkins, S. Mark; Kohlmeier, Jacob E.

    2015-01-01

    Influenza virus is a source of significant health and economic burden from yearly epidemics and sporadic pandemics. Given the potential for the emerging H7N9 influenza virus to cause severe respiratory infections and the lack of exposure to H7 and N9 influenza viruses in the human population, we aimed to quantify the H7N9 cross-reactive memory T cell reservoir in humans and mice previously exposed to common circulating influenza viruses. We identified significant cross-reactive T cell populations in humans and mice; we also found that cross-reactive memory T cells afforded heterosubtypic protection by reducing morbidity and mortality upon lethal H7N9 challenge. In context with our observation that PR8-primed mice have limited humoral cross-reactivity with H7N9, our data suggest protection from H7N9 challenge is indeed mediated by cross-reactive T cell populations established upon previous priming with another influenza virus. Thus, pre-existing cross-reactive memory T cells may limit disease severity in the event of an H7N9 influenza virus pandemic. PMID:25671696

  6. Memory T cells generated by prior exposure to influenza cross react with the novel H7N9 influenza virus and confer protective heterosubtypic immunity.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sean R McMaster

    Full Text Available Influenza virus is a source of significant health and economic burden from yearly epidemics and sporadic pandemics. Given the potential for the emerging H7N9 influenza virus to cause severe respiratory infections and the lack of exposure to H7 and N9 influenza viruses in the human population, we aimed to quantify the H7N9 cross-reactive memory T cell reservoir in humans and mice previously exposed to common circulating influenza viruses. We identified significant cross-reactive T cell populations in humans and mice; we also found that cross-reactive memory T cells afforded heterosubtypic protection by reducing morbidity and mortality upon lethal H7N9 challenge. In context with our observation that PR8-primed mice have limited humoral cross-reactivity with H7N9, our data suggest protection from H7N9 challenge is indeed mediated by cross-reactive T cell populations established upon previous priming with another influenza virus. Thus, pre-existing cross-reactive memory T cells may limit disease severity in the event of an H7N9 influenza virus pandemic.

  7. How influenza vaccination policy may affect vaccine logistics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Assi, Tina-Marie; Rookkapan, Korngamon; Rajgopal, Jayant; Sornsrivichai, Vorasith; Brown, Shawn T; Welling, Joel S; Norman, Bryan A; Connor, Diana L; Chen, Sheng-I; Slayton, Rachel B; Laosiritaworn, Yongjua; Wateska, Angela R; Wisniewski, Stephen R; Lee, Bruce Y

    2012-06-22

    When policymakers make decision about the target populations and timing of influenza vaccination, they may not consider the impact on the vaccine supply chains, which may in turn affect vaccine availability. Our goal is to explore the effects on the Thailand vaccine supply chain of introducing influenza vaccines and varying the target populations and immunization time-frames. We Utilized our custom-designed software HERMES (Highly Extensible Resource for Modeling Supply Chains), we developed a detailed, computational discrete-event simulation model of the Thailand's National Immunization Program (NIP) supply chain in Trang Province, Thailand. A suite of experiments simulated introducing influenza vaccines for different target populations and over different time-frames prior to and during the annual influenza season. Introducing influenza vaccines creates bottlenecks that reduce the availability of both influenza vaccines as well as the other NIP vaccines, with provincial to district transport capacity being the primary constraint. Even covering only 25% of the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practice-recommended population while administering the vaccine over six months hinders overall vaccine availability so that only 62% of arriving patients can receive vaccines. Increasing the target population from 25% to 100% progressively worsens these bottlenecks, while increasing influenza vaccination time-frame from 1 to 6 months decreases these bottlenecks. Since the choice of target populations for influenza vaccination and the time-frame to deliver this vaccine can substantially affect the flow of all vaccines, policy-makers may want to consider supply chain effects when choosing target populations for a vaccine. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Underutilization of Influenza Vaccine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marshall K. Cheney

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Yearly influenza vaccination continues to be underutilized by those who would most benefit from it. The Health Belief Model was used to explain differences in beliefs about influenza vaccination among at-risk individuals resistant to influenza vaccination. Survey data were collected from 74 members of at-risk groups who were not vaccinated for influenza during the previous flu season. Accepting individuals were more likely to perceive flu as a threat to health and perceive access barriers, and cues to action were the most important influence on whether they plan to get vaccinated. In comparison, resistant individuals did not feel threatened by the flu, access barriers were not a problem, and they did not respond favorably to cues to action. Perceived threat, perceived access barriers, and cues to action were significantly associated with plans to be vaccinated for influenza in the next flu season. Participants who saw influenza as a threat to their health had 5.4 times the odds of planning to be vaccinated than those who did not. Participants reporting barriers to accessing influenza vaccination had 7.5 times the odds of reporting plans to be vaccinated. Those responding positively to cues to action had 12.2 times the odds of planning to be vaccinated in the next flu season than those who did not. Accepting and resistant individuals have significant differences in their beliefs, which require different intervention strategies to increase vaccination rates. These findings provide important information to researchers and practitioners working to increase influenza vaccination rates.

  9. Importance of employee vaccination against influenza in preventing cases in long-term care facilities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wendelboe, Aaron M; Avery, Catherine; Andrade, Bernardo; Baumbach, Joan; Landen, Michael G

    2011-10-01

    Employees of long-term care facilities (LTCFs) who have contact with residents should be vaccinated against influenza annually to reduce influenza incidence among residents. This investigation estimated the magnitude of the benefit of this recommendation. The New Mexico Department of Health implemented active surveillance in all of its 75 LTCFs during influenza seasons 2006-2007 and 2007-2008. Information about the number of laboratory-confirmed cases of influenza and the proportion vaccinated of both residents and direct-care employees in each facility was collected monthly. LTCFs reporting at least 1 case of influenza (defined alternately by laboratory confirmation or symptoms of influenza-like illness [ILI]) among residents were compared with LTCFs reporting no cases of influenza. Regression modeling was used to obtain adjusted odds ratios (aORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the association between employee vaccination coverage and the occurrence of influenza outbreaks. Covariates included vaccination coverage among residents, the staff-to-resident ratio, and the proportion of filled beds. Seventeen influenza outbreaks were reported during this 2-year period of surveillance. Eleven of these were laboratory confirmed (n = 21 residents) and 6 were defined by ILI (n = 40 residents). Mean influenza vaccination coverage among direct-care employees was 51% in facilities reporting outbreaks and 60% in facilities not reporting outbreaks (P = .12). Increased vaccination coverage among direct-care employees was associated with fewer reported outbreaks of laboratory-confirmed influenza (aOR, 0.97 [95% CI, 0.95-0.99]) and ILI (aOR, 0.98 [95% CI, 0.96-1.00]). High vaccination coverage among direct-care employees helps to prevent influenza in LTCFs.

  10. Multiple routes transmitted epidemics on multiplex networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhao, Dawei; Li, Lixiang; Peng, Haipeng; Luo, Qun; Yang, Yixian

    2014-01-01

    This letter investigates the multiple routes transmitted epidemic process on multiplex networks. We propose detailed theoretical analysis that allows us to accurately calculate the epidemic threshold and outbreak size. It is found that the epidemic can spread across the multiplex network even if all the network layers are well below their respective epidemic thresholds. Strong positive degree–degree correlation of nodes in multiplex network could lead to a much lower epidemic threshold and a relatively smaller outbreak size. However, the average similarity of neighbors from different layers of nodes has no obvious effect on the epidemic threshold and outbreak size. -- Highlights: •We studies multiple routes transmitted epidemic process on multiplex networks. •SIR model and bond percolation theory are used to analyze the epidemic processes. •We derive equations to accurately calculate the epidemic threshold and outbreak size. •ASN has no effect on the epidemic threshold and outbreak size. •Strong positive DDC leads to a lower epidemic threshold and a smaller outbreak size.

  11. Multiple routes transmitted epidemics on multiplex networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhao, Dawei [Information Security Center, State Key Laboratory of Networking and Switching Technology, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, P.O. Box 145, Beijing 100876 (China); National Engineering Laboratory for Disaster Backup and Recovery, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Beijing 100876 (China); Shandong Provincial Key Laboratory of Computer Network, Shandong Computer Science Center, Jinan 250014 (China); Li, Lixiang [Information Security Center, State Key Laboratory of Networking and Switching Technology, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, P.O. Box 145, Beijing 100876 (China); National Engineering Laboratory for Disaster Backup and Recovery, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Beijing 100876 (China); Peng, Haipeng, E-mail: penghaipeng@bupt.edu.cn [Information Security Center, State Key Laboratory of Networking and Switching Technology, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, P.O. Box 145, Beijing 100876 (China); National Engineering Laboratory for Disaster Backup and Recovery, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Beijing 100876 (China); Luo, Qun; Yang, Yixian [Information Security Center, State Key Laboratory of Networking and Switching Technology, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, P.O. Box 145, Beijing 100876 (China); National Engineering Laboratory for Disaster Backup and Recovery, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Beijing 100876 (China)

    2014-02-01

    This letter investigates the multiple routes transmitted epidemic process on multiplex networks. We propose detailed theoretical analysis that allows us to accurately calculate the epidemic threshold and outbreak size. It is found that the epidemic can spread across the multiplex network even if all the network layers are well below their respective epidemic thresholds. Strong positive degree–degree correlation of nodes in multiplex network could lead to a much lower epidemic threshold and a relatively smaller outbreak size. However, the average similarity of neighbors from different layers of nodes has no obvious effect on the epidemic threshold and outbreak size. -- Highlights: •We studies multiple routes transmitted epidemic process on multiplex networks. •SIR model and bond percolation theory are used to analyze the epidemic processes. •We derive equations to accurately calculate the epidemic threshold and outbreak size. •ASN has no effect on the epidemic threshold and outbreak size. •Strong positive DDC leads to a lower epidemic threshold and a smaller outbreak size.

  12. Animal and human influenzas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peiris, M; Yen, H-L

    2014-08-01

    Influenza type A viruses affect humans and other animals and cause significant morbidity, mortality and economic impact. Influenza A viruses are well adapted to cross species barriers and evade host immunity. Viruses that cause no clinical signs in wild aquatic birds may adapt in domestic poultry to become highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses which decimate poultry flocks. Viruses that cause asymptomatic infection in poultry (e.g. the recently emerged A/H7N9 virus) may cause severe zoonotic disease and pose a major pandemic threat. Pandemic influenza arises at unpredictable intervals from animal viruses and, in its global spread, outpaces current technologies for making vaccines against such novel viruses. Confronting the threat of influenza in humans and other animals is an excellent example of a task that requires a One Health approach. Changes in travel, trade in livestock and pets, changes in animal husbandry practices, wet markets and complex marketing chains all contribute to an increased risk of the emergence of novel influenza viruses with the ability to cross species barriers, leading to epizootics or pandemics. Coordinated surveillance at the animal- human interface for pandemic preparedness, risk assessment, risk reduction and prevention at source requires coordinated action among practitioners in human and animal health and the environmental sciences. Implementation of One Health in the field can be challenging because of divergent short-term objectives. Successful implementation requires effort, mutual trust, respect and understanding to ensure that long-term goals are achieved without adverse impacts on agricultural production and food security.

  13. Bayesian nonparametric clustering in phylogenetics: modeling antigenic evolution in influenza.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cybis, Gabriela B; Sinsheimer, Janet S; Bedford, Trevor; Rambaut, Andrew; Lemey, Philippe; Suchard, Marc A

    2018-01-30

    Influenza is responsible for up to 500,000 deaths every year, and antigenic variability represents much of its epidemiological burden. To visualize antigenic differences across many viral strains, antigenic cartography methods use multidimensional scaling on binding assay data to map influenza antigenicity onto a low-dimensional space. Analysis of such assay data ideally leads to natural clustering of influenza strains of similar antigenicity that correlate with sequence evolution. To understand the dynamics of these antigenic groups, we present a framework that jointly models genetic and antigenic evolution by combining multidimensional scaling of binding assay data, Bayesian phylogenetic machinery and nonparametric clustering methods. We propose a phylogenetic Chinese restaurant process that extends the current process to incorporate the phylogenetic dependency structure between strains in the modeling of antigenic clusters. With this method, we are able to use the genetic information to better understand the evolution of antigenicity throughout epidemics, as shown in applications of this model to H1N1 influenza. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  14. Rainfall mediations in the spreading of epidemic cholera

    Science.gov (United States)

    Righetto, L.; Bertuzzo, E.; Mari, L.; Schild, E.; Casagrandi, R.; Gatto, M.; Rodriguez-Iturbe, I.; Rinaldo, A.

    2013-10-01

    Following the empirical evidence of a clear correlation between rainfall events and cholera resurgence that was observed in particular during the recent outbreak in Haiti, a spatially explicit model of epidemic cholera is re-examined. Specifically, we test a multivariate Poisson rainfall generator, with parameters varying in space and time, as a driver of enhanced disease transmission. The relevance of the issue relates to the key insight that predictive mathematical models may provide into the course of an ongoing cholera epidemic aiding emergency management (say, in allocating life-saving supplies or health care staff) or in evaluating alternative management strategies. Our model consists of a set of dynamical equations (SIRB-like i.e. subdivided into the compartments of Susceptible, Infected and Recovered individuals, and including a balance of Bacterial concentrations in the water reservoir) describing a connected network of human communities where the infection results from the exposure to excess concentrations of pathogens in the water. These, in turn, are driven by rainfall washout of open-air defecation sites or cesspool overflows, hydrologic transport through waterways and by mobility of susceptible and infected individuals. We perform an a posteriori analysis (from the beginning of the epidemic in October 2010 until December 2011) to test the model reliability in predicting cholera cases and in testing control measures, involving vaccination and sanitation campaigns, for the ongoing epidemic. Even though predicting reliably the timing of the epidemic resurgence proves difficult due to rainfall inter-annual variability, we find that the model can reasonably quantify the total number of reported infection cases in the selected time-span. We then run a multi-seasonal prediction of the course of the epidemic until December 2015, to investigate conditions for further resurgences and endemicity of cholera in the region with a view to policies which may bring to

  15. Seasonal Influenza Vaccine Uptake in a Respiratory Outpatients Clinic

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Rossiter, A

    2017-02-01

    Influenza is an acute viral respiratory illness that continues to cause significant morbidity and mortality in Ireland. Despite well-established national and international guidelines1 and increased public awareness campaigns, vaccine uptake rates are well below target worldwide2. We performed an audit of influenza vaccine uptake at a Respiratory outpatient clinic in a tertiary referral centre. 54% (n=41) of patients received the annual vaccine, well below the target of 75% set by the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC).

  16. The feasibility of age-specific travel restrictions during influenza pandemics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lam, Elson H Y; Cowling, Benjamin J; Cook, Alex R; Wong, Jessica Y T; Lau, Max S Y; Nishiura, Hiroshi

    2011-11-11

    Epidemiological studies have shown that imposing travel restrictions to prevent or delay an influenza pandemic may not be feasible. To delay an epidemic substantially, an extremely high proportion of trips (~99%) would have to be restricted in a homogeneously mixing population. Influenza is, however, strongly influenced by age-dependent transmission dynamics, and the effectiveness of age-specific travel restrictions, such as the selective restriction of travel by children, has yet to be examined. A simple stochastic model was developed to describe the importation of infectious cases into a population and to model local chains of transmission seeded by imported cases. The probability of a local epidemic, and the time period until a major epidemic takes off, were used as outcome measures, and travel restriction policies in which children or adults were preferentially restricted were compared to age-blind restriction policies using an age-dependent next generation matrix parameterized for influenza H1N1-2009. Restricting children from travelling would yield greater reductions to the short-term risk of the epidemic being established locally than other policy options considered, and potentially could delay an epidemic for a few weeks. However, given a scenario with a total of 500 imported cases over a period of a few months, a substantial reduction in the probability of an epidemic in this time period is possible only if the transmission potential were low and assortativity (i.e. the proportion of contacts within-group) were unrealistically high. In all other scenarios considered, age-structured travel restrictions would not prevent an epidemic and would not delay the epidemic for longer than a few weeks. Selectively restricting children from traveling overseas during a pandemic may potentially delay its arrival for a few weeks, depending on the characteristics of the pandemic strain, but could have less of an impact on the economy compared to restricting adult

  17. The feasibility of age-specific travel restrictions during influenza pandemics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lam Elson HY

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Epidemiological studies have shown that imposing travel restrictions to prevent or delay an influenza pandemic may not be feasible. To delay an epidemic substantially, an extremely high proportion of trips (~99% would have to be restricted in a homogeneously mixing population. Influenza is, however, strongly influenced by age-dependent transmission dynamics, and the effectiveness of age-specific travel restrictions, such as the selective restriction of travel by children, has yet to be examined. Methods A simple stochastic model was developed to describe the importation of infectious cases into a population and to model local chains of transmission seeded by imported cases. The probability of a local epidemic, and the time period until a major epidemic takes off, were used as outcome measures, and travel restriction policies in which children or adults were preferentially restricted were compared to age-blind restriction policies using an age-dependent next generation matrix parameterized for influenza H1N1-2009. Results Restricting children from travelling would yield greater reductions to the short-term risk of the epidemic being established locally than other policy options considered, and potentially could delay an epidemic for a few weeks. However, given a scenario with a total of 500 imported cases over a period of a few months, a substantial reduction in the probability of an epidemic in this time period is possible only if the transmission potential were low and assortativity (i.e. the proportion of contacts within-group were unrealistically high. In all other scenarios considered, age-structured travel restrictions would not prevent an epidemic and would not delay the epidemic for longer than a few weeks. Conclusions Selectively restricting children from traveling overseas during a pandemic may potentially delay its arrival for a few weeks, depending on the characteristics of the pandemic strain, but could have less

  18. Epidemic processes in complex networks

    OpenAIRE

    Pastor Satorras, Romualdo; Castellano, Claudio; Van Mieghem, Piet; Vespignani, Alessandro

    2015-01-01

    In recent years the research community has accumulated overwhelming evidence for the emergence of complex and heterogeneous connectivity patterns in a wide range of biological and sociotechnical systems. The complex properties of real-world networks have a profound impact on the behavior of equilibrium and nonequilibrium phenomena occurring in various systems, and the study of epidemic spreading is central to our understanding of the unfolding of dynamical processes in complex networks. The t...

  19. Vaccination with Recombinant Parainfluenza Virus 5 Expressing Neuraminidase Protects against Homologous and Heterologous Influenza Virus Challenge.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mooney, Alaina J; Gabbard, Jon D; Li, Zhuo; Dlugolenski, Daniel A; Johnson, Scott K; Tripp, Ralph A; He, Biao; Tompkins, S Mark

    2017-12-01

    Seasonal human influenza virus continues to cause morbidity and mortality annually, and highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) viruses along with other emerging influenza viruses continue to pose pandemic threats. Vaccination is considered the most effective measure for controlling influenza; however, current strategies rely on a precise vaccine match with currently circulating virus strains for efficacy, requiring constant surveillance and regular development of matched vaccines. Current vaccines focus on eliciting specific antibody responses against the hemagglutinin (HA) surface glycoprotein; however, the diversity of HAs across species and antigenic drift of circulating strains enable the evasion of virus-inhibiting antibody responses, resulting in vaccine failure. The neuraminidase (NA) surface glycoprotein, while diverse, has a conserved enzymatic site and presents an appealing target for priming broadly effective antibody responses. Here we show that vaccination with parainfluenza virus 5 (PIV5), a promising live viral vector expressing NA from avian (H5N1) or pandemic (H1N1) influenza virus, elicited NA-specific antibody and T cell responses, which conferred protection against homologous and heterologous influenza virus challenges. Vaccination with PIV5-N1 NA provided cross-protection against challenge with a heterosubtypic (H3N2) virus. Experiments using antibody transfer indicate that antibodies to NA have an important role in protection. These findings indicate that PIV5 expressing NA may be effective as a broadly protective vaccine against seasonal influenza and emerging pandemic threats. IMPORTANCE Seasonal influenza viruses cause considerable morbidity and mortality annually, while emerging viruses pose potential pandemic threats. Currently licensed influenza virus vaccines rely on the antigenic match of hemagglutinin (HA) for vaccine strain selection, and most vaccines rely on HA inhibition titers to determine efficacy, despite the growing

  20. Influenza pandemics and avian flu

    OpenAIRE

    Fleming, Douglas

    2005-01-01

    Douglas Fleming is general practitioner in a large suburban practice in Birmingham. In this article he seeks to clarify clinical issues relating to potential pandemics of influenza, including avian influenza

  1. Influenza | Florida Department of Health

    Science.gov (United States)

    Health Women's Health WIC Program Community Health Minority Health & Health Equity People with influenza A viruses since early March. * This late-season circulation of influenza B is expected. View the

  2. Flublok Seasonal Influenza (Flu) Vaccination

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... type="submit" value="Submit" /> Archived Flu Emails Influenza Types Seasonal Avian Swine Variant Pandemic Other Flublok Seasonal Influenza (Flu) Vaccine Questions & Answers Language: English (US) Español ...

  3. A lattice model for influenza spreading.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonella Liccardo

    Full Text Available We construct a stochastic SIR model for influenza spreading on a D-dimensional lattice, which represents the dynamic contact network of individuals. An age distributed population is placed on the lattice and moves on it. The displacement from a site to a nearest neighbor empty site, allows individuals to change the number and identities of their contacts. The dynamics on the lattice is governed by an attractive interaction between individuals belonging to the same age-class. The parameters, which regulate the pattern dynamics, are fixed fitting the data on the age-dependent daily contact numbers, furnished by the Polymod survey. A simple SIR transmission model with a nearest neighbors interaction and some very basic adaptive mobility restrictions complete the model. The model is validated against the age-distributed Italian epidemiological data for the influenza A(H1N1 during the [Formula: see text] season, with sensible predictions for the epidemiological parameters. For an appropriate topology of the lattice, we find that, whenever the accordance between the contact patterns of the model and the Polymod data is satisfactory, there is a good agreement between the numerical and the experimental epidemiological data. This result shows how rich is the information encoded in the average contact patterns of individuals, with respect to the analysis of the epidemic spreading of an infectious disease.

  4. Theoretical basis to measure the impact of short-lasting control of an infectious disease on the epidemic peak

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Omori Ryosuke

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background While many pandemic preparedness plans have promoted disease control effort to lower and delay an epidemic peak, analytical methods for determining the required control effort and making statistical inferences have yet to be sought. As a first step to address this issue, we present a theoretical basis on which to assess the impact of an early intervention on the epidemic peak, employing a simple epidemic model. Methods We focus on estimating the impact of an early control effort (e.g. unsuccessful containment, assuming that the transmission rate abruptly increases when control is discontinued. We provide analytical expressions for magnitude and time of the epidemic peak, employing approximate logistic and logarithmic-form solutions for the latter. Empirical influenza data (H1N1-2009 in Japan are analyzed to estimate the effect of the summer holiday period in lowering and delaying the peak in 2009. Results Our model estimates that the epidemic peak of the 2009 pandemic was delayed for 21 days due to summer holiday. Decline in peak appears to be a nonlinear function of control-associated reduction in the reproduction number. Peak delay is shown to critically depend on the fraction of initially immune individuals. Conclusions The proposed modeling approaches offer methodological avenues to assess empirical data and to objectively estimate required control effort to lower and delay an epidemic peak. Analytical findings support a critical need to conduct population-wide serological survey as a prior requirement for estimating the time of peak.

  5. Avian Influenza: Myth or Mass Murder?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carol Louie

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of the present article was to determine whether avian influenza (AI is capable of causing a pandemic. Using research from a variety of medical journals, books and texts, the present paper evaluates the probability of the AI virus becoming sufficiently virulent to pose a global threat. Previous influenza A pandemics from the past century are reviewed, focusing on the mortality rate and the qualities of the virus that distinguish it from other viruses. Each of the influenza A viruses reviewed were classified as pandemic because they met three key criteria: first, the viruses were highly pathogenic within the human population; second, the viruses were easily transmissible from person to person; and finally, the viruses were novel, such that a large proportion of the population was susceptible to infection. Information about the H5N1 subtype of AI has also been critically assessed. Evidence suggests that this AI subtype is both novel and highly pathogenic. The mortality rate from epidemics in Thailand in 2004 was as high as 66%. Clearly, this virus is aggressive. It causes a high death rate, proving that humans have a low immunity to the disease. To date, there has been little evidence to suggest that AI can spread among humans. There have been cases where the virus has transferred from birds to humans, in settings such as farms or open markets with live animal vending. If AI were to undergo a genetic reassortment that allowed itself to transmit easily from person to person, then a serious pandemic could ensue, resulting in high morbidity and mortality. Experts at the World Health Organization and the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention agree that AI has the potential to undergo an antigenic shift, thus triggering the next pandemic.

  6. Epidemics in the news: Health and hygiene in the press in periods of crisis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Almeida, Maria Antónia Pires

    2013-10-01

    How did scientific knowledge reach the public? Using the press and keeping in mind the population's limited access to written material, this paper establishes how the latest scientific news was divulged to unspecialised audiences. In times of sanitary crisis in Oporto, such as the cholera morbus epidemic of 1854-1856, the bubonic plague in 1899 and the 1918 influenza pandemic, newspapers were important sources to access the information and advice given to the public. A database of 6700 articles, medical reports and advertisements published in daily newspapers reveals the state of the art of medical science. It also reveals the importance given by health authorities and journalists to the publication of recent discoveries and adequate hygiene procedures to prevent the spread of the epidemics. This is a subject that contributes to the debates on the dissemination of science and on the place that Portugal occupied in the international scientific community.

  7. Mathematical Analysis of an Epidemic System in the Presence of Optimal Control and Population Dispersal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nandi, Swapan Kumar; Jana, Soovoojeet; Mandal, Manotosh; Kar, T. K.

    In this paper, we proposed and analyzed a susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) type epidemic model to investigate the effect of transport-related infectious diseases namely tuberculosis, measles, rubella, influenza, sexually transmitted diseases, etc. The existence and stability criteria of both the diseases include free equilibrium point and endemic equilibrium point which are established and the threshold parametric condition for which the system passes through a transcritical bifurcation is also obtained. Optimal control strategy for control parameters is formulated and solved both theoretically and numerically. Lastly, we not only illustrate our theoretical results through graphical illustrations but also computer simulation is used to show that our model would be a good model to study the SARS epidemic in 2003.

  8. Reassortment and evolution of current human influenza A and B viruses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Xiyan; Lindstrom, Stephen E; Shaw, Michael W; Smith, Catherine B; Hall, Henrietta E; Mungall, Bruce A; Subbarao, Kanta; Cox, Nancy J; Klimov, Alexander

    2004-07-01

    During the 2001-2002 influenza season, human influenza A (H1N2) reassortant viruses were detected globally. The hemagglutinin (HA) of these H1N2 viruses was similar to that of the A/New Caledonia/20/99 (H1N1) vaccine strain both antigenically and genetically, while their neuraminidase (NA) was antigenically and genetically related to that of recent human influenza H3N2 reference viruses such as A/Moscow/10/99. All six internal genes of the H1N2 reassortants originated from an H3N2 virus. After being detected only in eastern Asia during the past 10 years, Influenza B/Victoria/2/87 lineage viruses reappeared in many countries outside of Asia in 2001. Additionally, reassortant influenza B viruses possessing an HA similar to that of B/Shandong/7/97, a recent B/Victoria/2/87 lineage reference strain, and an NA closely related to that of B/Sichuan/379/99, a recent B/Yamagata/16/88 lineage reference strain, were isolated globally and became the predominant influenza B epidemic strain. The current influenza vaccine is expected to provide good protection against H1N2 viruses because it contains A/New Caledonia/20/99 (H1N1) and A/Panama/2007/99 (H3N2) like viruses whose H1 HA or N2 NA are antigenically similar to those of recent circulating H1N2 viruses. On the other hand, widespread circulation of influenza B Victoria lineage viruses required inclusion of a strain from this lineage in influenza vaccines for the 2002-2003 season.

  9. Inter-Seasonal Influenza is Characterized by Extended Virus Transmission and Persistence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patterson Ross, Zoe; Komadina, Naomi; Deng, Yi-Mo; Spirason, Natalie; Kelly, Heath A.; Sullivan, Sheena G.; Barr, Ian G.; Holmes, Edward C.

    2015-01-01

    The factors that determine the characteristic seasonality of influenza remain enigmatic. Current models predict that occurrences of influenza outside the normal surveillance season within a temperate region largely reflect the importation of viruses from the alternate hemisphere or from equatorial regions in Asia. To help reveal the drivers of seasonality we investigated the origins and evolution of influenza viruses sampled during inter-seasonal periods in Australia. To this end we conducted an expansive phylogenetic analysis of 9912, 3804, and 3941 hemagglutinnin (HA) sequences from influenza A/H1N1pdm, A/H3N2, and B, respectively, collected globally during the period 2009-2014. Of the 1475 viruses sampled from Australia, 396 (26.8% of Australian, or 2.2% of global set) were sampled outside the monitored temperate influenza surveillance season (1 May – 31 October). Notably, rather than simply reflecting short-lived importations of virus from global localities with higher influenza prevalence, we documented a variety of more complex inter-seasonal transmission patterns including “stragglers” from the preceding season and “heralds” of the forthcoming season, and which included viruses sampled from clearly temperate regions within Australia. We also provide evidence for the persistence of influenza B virus between epidemic seasons, in which transmission of a viral lineage begins in one season and continues throughout the inter-seasonal period into the following season. Strikingly, a disproportionately high number of inter-seasonal influenza transmission events occurred in tropical and subtropical regions of Australia, providing further evidence that climate plays an important role in shaping patterns of influenza seasonality. PMID:26107631

  10. Improving pandemic influenza risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Assessing the pandemic risk posed by specific non-human influenza A viruses remains a complex challenge. As influenza virus genome sequencing becomes cheaper, faster and more readily available, the ability to predict pandemic potential from sequence data could transform pandemic influenza risk asses...

  11. Estimated incidence of influenza-associated severe acute respiratory infections in Indonesia, 2013-2016.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Susilarini, Ni K; Haryanto, Edy; Praptiningsih, Catharina Y; Mangiri, Amalya; Kipuw, Natalie; Tarya, Irmawati; Rusli, Roselinda; Sumardi, Gestafiana; Widuri, Endang; Sembiring, Masri M; Noviyanti, Widya; Widaningrum, Christina; Lafond, Kathryn E; Samaan, Gina; Setiawaty, Vivi

    2018-01-01

    Indonesia's hospital-based Severe Acute Respiratory Infection (SARI) surveillance system, Surveilans Infeksi Saluran Pernafasan Akut Berat Indonesia (SIBI), was established in 2013. While respiratory illnesses such as SARI pose a significant problem, there are limited incidence-based data on influenza disease burden in Indonesia. This study aimed to estimate the incidence of influenza-associated SARI in Indonesia during 2013-2016 at three existing SIBI surveillance sites. From May 2013 to April 2016, inpatients from sentinel hospitals in three districts of Indonesia (Gunung Kidul, Balikpapan, Deli Serdang) were screened for SARI. Respiratory specimens were collected from eligible inpatients and screened for influenza viruses. Annual incidence rates were calculated using these SIBI-enrolled influenza-positive SARI cases as a numerator, with a denominator catchment population defined through hospital admission survey (HAS) to identify respiratory-coded admissions by age to hospitals in the sentinel site districts. From May 2013 to April 2016, there were 1527 SARI cases enrolled, of whom 1392 (91%) had specimens tested and 199 (14%) were influenza-positive. The overall estimated annual incidence of influenza-associated SARI ranged from 13 to 19 per 100 000 population. Incidence was highest in children aged 0-4 years (82-114 per 100 000 population), followed by children 5-14 years (22-36 per 100 000 population). Incidence rates of influenza-associated SARI in these districts indicate a substantial burden of influenza hospitalizations in young children in Indonesia. Further studies are needed to examine the influenza burden in other potential risk groups such as pregnant women and the elderly. © 2017 The Authors. Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  12. Molecular characterization of influenza viruses circulating in Northern Italy during two seasons (2005/2006 and 2006/2007) of low influenza activity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pariani, Elena; Amendola, Antonella; Zappa, Alessandra; Bianchi, Silvia; Colzani, Daniela; Anselmi, Giovanni; Zanetti, Alessandro; Tanzi, Elisabetta

    2008-11-01

    The influenza activity and circulation of influenza viruses in Lombardy (the most populous Italian region) were observed during two consecutive seasons (2005/2006 and 2006/2007) characterized by low influenza activity by the Italian Influenza Surveillance Network. The molecular characteristics of circulating viruses were analyzed to evaluate the introduction of new variants and emergence of vaccine-escape viruses. In both seasons, the epidemic in Lombardy was sustained almost exclusively by influenza A viruses, accounting for 80.5% and 93.6% of total detections, respectively, and the co-circulation of A/H3 viruses belonging to distinct phylogenetic groups was observed. The A/H1N1 viruses isolated during the 2005/2006 season were closely related to A/New Caledonia/20/99, while the hemagglutinin (HA) sequences of the A/H1N1 viruses from the 2006/2007 season exhibited a greater diversity. These viruses were A/Solomon Islands/3/2006-like and showed several variants. All B isolates were similar to B/Malaysia/2506/2004 belonging to the B/Victoria/2/87-lineage. Influenza B virus was the dominant virus in Europe in the 2005/2006 season and accounted for the 20% of total detections in Lombardy. Overall, the viruses studied presented heterogeneity in their HA sequences suggesting the circulation of a miscellaneous set of variants during the two seasons notwithstanding the medium-low activity of influenza. The importance of virological surveillance of influenza viruses is recognized widely and the molecular characterization of the viruses, especially in vaccinated subjects, is of particular importance to evaluate the introduction and circulation of new variants. 2008 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

  13. Effectiveness of influenza vaccine against laboratory-confirmed influenza, in the late 2011–2012 season in Spain, among population targeted for vaccination

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-01

    Background In Spain, the influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) was estimated in the last three seasons using the observational study cycEVA conducted in the frame of the existing Spanish Influenza Sentinel Surveillance System. The objective of the study was to estimate influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) against medically attended, laboratory-confirmed influenza-like illness (ILI) among the target groups for vaccination in Spain in the 2011–2012 season. We also studied influenza VE in the early (weeks 52/2011-7/2012) and late (weeks 8-14/2012) phases of the epidemic and according to time since vaccination. Methods Medically attended patients with ILI were systematically swabbed to collect information on exposure, laboratory outcome and confounding factors. Patients belonging to target groups for vaccination and who were swabbed 4 months, respectively, since vaccination. A decrease in VE with time since vaccination was only observed in individuals aged ≥ 65 years. Regarding the phase of the season, decreasing point estimates were only observed in the early phase, whereas very low or null estimates were obtained in the late phase for the shortest time interval. Conclusions The 2011–2012 influenza vaccine showed a low-to-moderate protective effect against medically attended, laboratory-confirmed influenza in the target groups for vaccination, in a late season and with a limited match between the vaccine and circulating strains. The suggested decrease in influenza VE with time since vaccination was mostly observed in the elderly population. The decreasing protective effect of the vaccine in the late part of the season could be related to waning vaccine protection because no viral changes were identified throughout the season. PMID:24053661

  14. Avian influenza in Chile: a successful experience.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Max, Vanessa; Herrera, José; Moreira, Rubén; Rojas, Hernán

    2007-03-01

    Avian influenza (AI) was diagnosed in May 2002 for the first time in Chile and South America. The epidemic was caused by the highly pathogenic AI (HPAI) virus subtype H7N3 that emerged from a low pathogenic virus. The index farm was a broiler breeder, located in San Antonio, V Region, which at the time was a densely populated poultry area. Stamping of 465,000 breeders, in 27 sheds, was immediately conducted. Surveillance activities detected a second outbreak, 1 wk later, at a turkey breeding farm from the same company. The second farm was located 4 km from the index case. Only 25% of the sheds were infected, and 18,500 turkeys were destroyed. In both outbreaks, surveillance zones and across-country control measures were established: prediagnosis quarantine, depopulation, intensive surveillance, movement control, and increased biosecurity. Other measures included cleaning, disinfection, and controlling the farms with sentinels to detect the potential presence of the virus. Zoning procedures were implemented to allow the international trade of poultry products from unaffected areas. Positive serologic results to H5N2 virus also were detected in other poultry farms, but there was no evidence of clinical signs or virus isolation. Epidemiological investigation and laboratory confirmation determined that positive serology was related to a contaminated imported batch of vaccine against inclusion body hepatitis. All actions taken allowed the control of the epidemic, and within 7 mo, Chile was free of AI. Epidemic and control measures that prevented further spread are described in this article, which illustrates the importance of a combination of control measures during and after an outbreak of AI. This study is a good example of how veterinary services need to respond if their country is affected by HPAI.

  15. Multi-step prediction for influenza outbreak by an adjusted long short-term memory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, J; Nawata, K

    2018-05-01

    Influenza results in approximately 3-5 million annual cases of severe illness and 250 000-500 000 deaths. We urgently need an accurate multi-step-ahead time-series forecasting model to help hospitals to perform dynamical assignments of beds to influenza patients for the annually varied influenza season, and aid pharmaceutical companies to formulate a flexible plan of manufacturing vaccine for the yearly different influenza vaccine. In this study, we utilised four different multi-step prediction algorithms in the long short-term memory (LSTM). The result showed that implementing multiple single-output prediction in a six-layer LSTM structure achieved the best accuracy. The mean absolute percentage errors from two- to 13-step-ahead prediction for the US influenza-like illness rates were all LSTM has been applied and refined to perform multi-step-ahead prediction for influenza outbreaks. Hopefully, this modelling methodology can be applied in other countries and therefore help prevent and control influenza worldwide.

  16. Parents' decision-making regarding vaccinating their children against influenza: A web-based survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flood, Emuella M; Rousculp, Matthew D; Ryan, Kellie J; Beusterien, Kathleen M; Divino, Victoria M; Toback, Seth L; Sasané, Medha; Block, Stan L; Hall, Matthew C; Mahadevia, Parthiv J

    2010-08-01

    Despite the recommendation from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention that children between the ages of 6 months and 18 years be vaccinated against influenza annually, vaccination rates remain suboptimal. This study was conducted to explore factors that influence parents' decisions regarding influenza vaccination for children aged 2 to 12 years, to quantify the relative importance of these factors, to identify an appropriate theoretical model for illustrating the relationships among these factors, and to characterize parents by their likelihood of vaccinating their children against influenza. A quantitative Web-based survey was administered to a sample of parents from an online panel representative of the US population. Parents were stratified based on self-reported rates of their personal influenza vaccination (every year, sometimes, or never) and the age of their child (2-4 years or 5-12 years). The results were examined by parents' likelihood of vaccinating their child in the next year (high, medium, or low). Participants were asked to rank their agreement with statements representing various beliefs and perceptions about influenza and influenza vaccine on a scale from 1 = strongly agree to 5 = strongly disagree. Parents who indicated that they vaccinate their child every year were asked to select the drivers of their decision to vaccinate; parents who indicated that they never vaccinate their child were asked to select the barriers affecting their decision not to vaccinate; and parents who responded that they sometimes vaccinate their child were asked to select both the drivers and barriers affecting their decision. Participants were then asked to rank the importance of each driver or barrier on a scale from 1 = a little important to 5 = extremely important. Mean agreement ratings were calculated for parents' beliefs and perceptions about influenza and influenza vaccine and were compared across likelihood subgroups. Mean importance ratings of the

  17. Influvac, a trivalent inactivated subunit influenza vaccine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zuccotti, Gian Vincenzo; Fabiano, Valentina

    2011-01-01

    Influenza represents a major sanitary and socio-economic burden and vaccination is universally considered the most effective strategy for preventing the disease and its complications. Traditional influenza vaccines have been on the market since the late 1940s, with million of doses administered annually worldwide, and demonstrated a substantial efficacy and safety. The trivalent inactivated subunit vaccine has been available for more than 25 years and has been studied in healthy children, adults and the elderly and in people affected by underlying chronic medical conditions. We describe vaccine technology focusing on subunit vaccine production procedures and mode of action and provide updated information on efficacy and safety available data. A review of efficacy and safety data in healthy subjects and in high risk populations from major sponsor- and investigator-driven studies. The vaccine showed a good immunogenicity and a favorable safety profile in all target groups. In the panorama of actually available influenza vaccines, trivalent inactivated subunit vaccine represents a well-established tool for preventing flu and the associated complications.

  18. Towards Future T Cell-Mediated Influenza Vaccines

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thi H. O. Nguyen

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Influenza A virus (IAVs infections impact significantly on global health, being particularly problematic in children, the elderly, pregnant women, indigenous populations and people with co-morbidities. Antibody-based vaccines require annual administration to combat rapidly acquired mutations modifying the surface haemagglutinin (HA and neuraminidase (NA glycoproteins. Conversely, influenza-specific CD8+ T cell responses directed at peptides derived from the more conserved internal virus proteins are known to be protective, suggesting that T cell-based vaccines may provide long-lasting cross-protection. This review outlines the importance of CD8+ T cell immunity to seasonal influenza and pandemic IAVs and summarises current vaccination strategies for inducing durable CD8+ T cell memory. Aspects of future IAV vaccine design and the use of live virus challenge in humans to establish proof of principle are also discussed.

  19. A polyvalent influenza A DNA vaccine induces heterologous immunity and protects pigs against pandemic A(H1N1)pdm09 virus infection

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bragstad, Karoline; Vinner, Lasse; Hansen, Mette Sif

    2013-01-01

    seasonal and emerging influenza viruses. We have developed an alternative influenza vaccine based on DNA expressing selected influenza proteins of pandemic and seasonal origin. In the current study, we investigated the protection of a polyvalent influenza DNA vaccine approach in pigs. We immunised pigs...... intradermally with a combination of influenza DNA vaccine components based on the pandemic 1918 H1N1 (M and NP genes), pandemic 2009 H1N1pdm09 (HA and NA genes) and seasonal 2005 H3N2 genes (HA and NA genes) and investigated the protection against infection with virus both homologous and heterologous to the DNA...... of this DNA vaccine to limit virus shedding may have an impact on virus spread among pigs which could possibly extend to humans as well, thereby diminishing the risk for epidemics and pandemics to evolve....

  20. Association of seropositivity for influenza and coronaviruses with history of mood disorders and suicide attempts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Okusaga, Olaoluwa; Yolken, Robert H; Langenberg, Patricia; Lapidus, Manana; Arling, Timothy A; Dickerson, Faith B; Scrandis, Debra A; Severance, Emily; Cabassa, Johanna A; Balis, Theodora; Postolache, Teodor T

    2011-04-01

    Anecdotal reports of mood disorder following infection with common respiratory viruses with neurotropic potential have been in existence since the last century. Nevertheless, systematic studies on the association between these viruses and mood disorders are lacking. Influenza A, B and coronavirus antibody titers were measured in 257 subjects with recurrent unipolar and bipolar disorder and healthy controls, by SCID. Pearson's χ² tests and logistic regression models were used to analyze associations between seropositivity for coronaviruses, influenza A and B viruses and the following: a) history of recurrent mood disorders b) having attempted suicide in the past c) uni- vs. bi-polarity and d) presence of psychotic symptoms during mood episodes. Seropositivity for influenza A (p=0.004), B (pmood disorders but not with the specific diagnosis of unipolar or bipolar depression. Seropositivity for influenza B was significantly associated with a history of suicide attempt (p=0.001) and history of psychotic symptoms (p=0.005). The design was cross-sectional. Socioeconomic factors, inflammatory markers, and axis II psychopathology were not assessed. The association of seropositivity for influenza and coronaviruses with a history of mood disorders, and influenza B with suicidal behavior require replication in larger longitudinal samples. The need for these studies is additionally supported by the high incidence of these viral infections, the high prevalence of mood disorders, and resilience of suicide epidemics. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  1. SNPer: an R library for quantitative variant analysis on single nucleotide polymorphisms among influenza virus populations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Unitsa Sangket

    Full Text Available Influenza virus (IFV can evolve rapidly leading to genetic drifts and shifts resulting in human and animal influenza epidemics and pandemics. The genetic shift that gave rise to the 2009 influenza A/H1N1 pandemic originated from a triple gene reassortment of avian, swine and human IFVs. More minor genetic alterations in genetic drift can lead to influenza drug resistance such as the H274Y mutation associated with oseltamivir resistance. Hence, a rapid tool to detect IFV mutations and the potential emergence of new virulent strains can better prepare us for seasonal influenza outbreaks as well as potential pandemics. Furthermore, identification of specific mutations by closely examining single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs in IFV sequences is essential to classify potential genetic markers associated with potentially dangerous IFV phenotypes. In this study, we developed a novel R library called "SNPer" to analyze quantitative variants in SNPs among IFV subpopulations. The computational SNPer program was applied to three different subpopulations of published IFV genomic information. SNPer queried SNPs data and grouped the SNPs into (1 universal SNPs, (2 likely common SNPs, and (3 unique SNPs. SNPer outperformed manual visualization in terms of time and labor. SNPer took only three seconds with no errors in SNP comparison events compared with 40 hours with errors using manual visualization. The SNPer tool can accelerate the capacity to capture new and potentially dangerous IFV strains to mitigate future influenza outbreaks.

  2. Clinical Expectations for Better Influenza Virus Vaccines—Perspectives from the Young Investigators’ Point of View

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kristin G.-I. Mohn

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available The influenza virus is one of a few viruses that is capable of rendering an otherwise healthy person acutly bedridden for several days. This impressive knock-out effect, without prodromal symptoms, challenges our immune system. The influenza virus undergoes continuous mutations, escaping our pre-existing immunity and causing epidemics, and its segmented genome is subject to reassortment, resulting in novel viruses with pandemic potential. The personal and socieoeconomic burden from influenza is high. Vaccination is the most cost-effective countermeasure, with several vaccines that are available. The current limitations in vaccine effectivness, combined with the need for yearly updating of vaccine strains, is a driving force for research into developing new and improved influenza vaccines. The lack of public concern about influenza severity, and misleading information concerning vaccine safety contribute to low vaccination coverage even in high-risk groups. The success of future influeza vaccines will depend on an increased public awarness of the disease, and hence, the need for vaccination—aided through improved rapid diagnositics. The vaccines must be safe and broadly acting, with new, measurable correlates of protection and robust post-marketing safety studies, to improve the confidence in influenza vaccines.

  3. INFLUENZA AND ACUTE VIRAL RESPIRATORY INFECTIONS IN THE PRACTICE OF THE EMERGENCY CREWS OF MOSCOW

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. F. Plavunov

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Influenza and acute viral respiratory infections have a great social significance during epidemic rise of morbidity and demand differential diagnosis of pneumonia with bacterial etiology and consultation with an infectious disease doctor in case of seeing patients in non-core hospitals. This article highlights the problem of influenza and acute respiratory viral infections’ early diagnosis. Clinical manifestations of influenza and other respiratory extremely similar. The differential diagnosis must take into account the presence of mixed infection in the same patient. According to the results of consultative infectious ambulance teams in 2014-2016, quality of diagnostics of this infectious pathology was examined. Observed deaths in persons later seeking medical treatment, not receiving timely antiviral therapy and related to high-risk groups: patients with obesity, chronic alcohol intoxication, diabetes, pregnant women. Influenza and acute viral respiratory infections, more complicated by pneumonia, people in the older age group, indicating the need for timely medical evacuation of patients older than 60 years. In some cases, in the diagnosis of influenza was helped by the results of laboratory studies (especially the trend to leukopenia and a positive rapid test. It should be noted that a negative rapid test for influenza was not a reason for exclusion of the diagnosis “influenza”.

  4. Native nucleic acid electrophoresis as an efficient alternative for genotyping method of influenza virus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pajak, Beata; Lepek, Krzysztof

    2014-01-01

    Influenza viruses are the worldwide major causative agents of human and animal acute respiratory infections. Some of the influenza subtypes have caused epidemics and pandemics among humans. The varieties of methods are available for the rapid isolation and identification of influenza viruses in clinical and environmental samples. Since nucleic acids amplification techniques such as RT-PCR have been adapted, fast and sensitive influenza type and subtype determination is possible. However, in some ambiguous cases other, more detailed assay might be desired. The genetic material of influenza virus is highly unstable and constantly mutates. It is known that single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) results in resistance to commercially available anti-viral drugs. The genetic drift of the virus could also result in weakening of immune response to infection. Finally, in a substantial number of patients co-infection with various virus strains or types has been confirmed. Although the detection of co-infection or presence of minor genetic variants within flu-infected patients is not a routine procedure, a rapid and wide spectrum diagnostics of influenza virus infections could reveal an accurate picture of the disease and more importantly, is crucial for choosing the appropriate therapeutics and virus monitoring. Herein we present the evidences that native gel electrophoresis and MSSCP--a method based on multitemperature single strand conformation polymorphism could furnish a useful technique for minor variants, which escape discovery by conventional diagnostic assays.

  5. Trends in global warming and evolution of matrix protein 2 family from influenza A virus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, Shao-Min; Wu, Guang

    2009-12-01

    The global warming is an important factor affecting the biological evolution, and the influenza is an important disease that threatens humans with possible epidemics or pandemics. In this study, we attempted to analyze the trends in global warming and evolution of matrix protein 2 family from influenza A virus, because this protein is a target of anti-flu drug, and its mutation would have significant effect on the resistance to anti-flu drugs. The evolution of matrix protein 2 of influenza A virus from 1959 to 2008 was defined using the unpredictable portion of amino-acid pair predictability. Then the trend in this evolution was compared with the trend in the global temperature, the temperature in north and south hemispheres, and the temperature in influenza A virus sampling site, and species carrying influenza A virus. The results showed the similar trends in global warming and in evolution of M2 proteins although we could not correlate them at this stage of study. The study suggested the potential impact of global warming on the evolution of proteins from influenza A virus.

  6. Influenza Pandemic Infrastructure Response in Thailand

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    Influenza viruses change antigenic properties, or drift, every year and they create seasonal outbreaks. Occasionally, influenza viruses change in a major way, called a “shift." If an influenza virus shifts, the entire human population is susceptible to the new influenza virus, creating the potential for a pandemic. On this podcast, CDC's Dr. Scott Dowell discusses responding to an influenza pandemic.

  7. Prevalence of influenza virus among the paediatric population in Mumbai during 2007-2009.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roy, S; Patil, D; Dahake, R; Mukherjee, S; Athlekar, S V; Deshmukh, R A; Chowdhary, A

    2012-01-01

    Influenza has a major impact on public heath, annually affecting 15-20% of the global population. Information on the activity of influenza virus in Mumbai is limited. The present study was carried out to determine the prevalence of influenza viruses causing acute respiratory infections in children by molecular methods. To study the prevalence of influenza viruses among the paediatric population in Mumbai by real-time reverse-transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (rRT-PCR). From July 2007 to July 2009, 100 respiratory samples (nasal and throat swabs) were collected from paediatric patients with acute respiratory symptoms. attending out patients department, and admitted to the paediatric wards of B. J. Wadia Hospital for Children, Mumbai. The samples were collected and processed as per World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines. Viral RNA was extracted and one-step rRT-PCR was performed to detect influenza type A (H1 and H3) and influenza type B virus. Out of 100 samples processed by rRT-PCR, a total of 11 samples (11%) were positive for influenza virus. The typing for influenza A subtypes showed 1% (1) positivity for H1 and 5% (5) positivity for H3 subtypes and 5% (5) samples tested positive for influenza type B virus. It was observed that both influenza type A and B viruses were prevalent in Mumbai during the study period. Such surveillance data are important in the early detection of any antigenic variants that may be helpful in global influenza vaccine preparation and for any pandemic preparedness activity.

  8. Contact allergy epidemics and their controls

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thyssen, Jacob Pontoppidan; Johansen, Jeanne Duus; Menné, Torkil

    2007-01-01

    Contact dermatitis can be severe and lead to sick leave as well as significant healthcare expenses. The aim of this review is to present the published knowledge on 6 historical epidemics of contact allergy to apply this knowledge on the prevention and control of future contact allergy epidemics. ...... to prevent contact allergy epidemics. It is essential that dermatologist, scientists, administrators, and consumers organize and structure known methods to accelerate the control of emerging contact allergens....

  9. Alberta family physicians? willingness to work during an influenza pandemic: a cross-sectional study

    OpenAIRE

    Dickinson, James A; Bani-Adam, Gisoo; Williamson, Tyler; Berzins, Sandy; Pearce, Craig; Ricketson, Leah; Medd, Emily

    2013-01-01

    Objective Effective pandemic responses rely on frontline healthcare workers continuing to work despite increased risk to themselves. Our objective was to investigate Alberta family physicians willingness to work during an influenza pandemic. Design: Cross-sectional survey. Setting: Alberta prior to the fall wave of the H1N1 epidemic. Participants: 192 participants from a random sample of 1000 Alberta family physicians stratified by region. Main Outcome Measures: Willingness to work through di...

  10. Antibody Persistence in Adults Two Years after Vaccination with an H1N1 2009 Pandemic Influenza Virus-Like Particle Vaccine.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nuriban Valero-Pacheco

    Full Text Available The influenza virus is a human pathogen that causes epidemics every year, as well as potential pandemic outbreaks, as occurred in 2009. Vaccination has proven to be sufficient in the prevention and containment of viral spreading. In addition to the current egg-based vaccines, new and promising vaccine platforms, such as cell culture-derived vaccines that include virus-like particles (VLPs, have been developed. VLPs have been shown to be both safe and immunogenic against influenza infections. Although antibody persistence has been studied in traditional egg-based influenza vaccines, studies on antibody response durations induced by VLP influenza vaccines in humans are scarce. Here, we show that subjects vaccinated with an insect cell-derived VLP vaccine, in the midst of the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic outbreak in Mexico City, showed antibody persistence up to 24 months post-vaccination. Additionally, we found that subjects that reported being revaccinated with a subsequent inactivated influenza virus vaccine showed higher antibody titres to the pandemic influenza virus than those who were not revaccinated. These findings provide insights into the duration of the antibody responses elicited by an insect cell-derived pandemic influenza VLP vaccine and the possible effects of subsequent influenza vaccination on antibody persistence induced by this VLP vaccine in humans.

  11. Can rewiring strategy control the epidemic spreading?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Chao; Yin, Qiuju; Liu, Wenyang; Yan, Zhijun; Shi, Tianyu

    2015-11-01

    Relation existed in the social contact network can affect individuals' behaviors greatly. Considering the diversity of relation intimacy among network nodes, an epidemic propagation model is proposed by incorporating the link-breaking threshold, which is normally neglected in the rewiring strategy. The impact of rewiring strategy on the epidemic spreading in the weighted adaptive network is explored. The results show that the rewiring strategy cannot always control the epidemic prevalence, especially when the link-breaking threshold is low. Meanwhile, as well as strong links, weak links also play a significant role on epidemic spreading.

  12. Equine influenza in Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patricia Filippsen Favaro

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Equine influenza virus (EIV (H3N8 and H7N7 is the causative agent of equine influenza, or equine flu. The H7N7 subtype has been considered to be extinct worldwide since 1980. Affected animals have respiratory symptoms that can be worsened by secondary bacterial respiratory infection, thereby leading to great economic losses in the horse-breeding industry. In Brazil, equine influenza outbreaks were first reported in 1963 and studies on hemagglutination antibodies against viral subtypes in Brazilian horses have been conducted since then. The objective of the present review was to present the history of the emergence of EIV around the world and in Brazil and the studies that have thus far been developed on EIV in Brazilian equines.

  13. L-carnosine modulates respiratory burst and reactive oxygen species production in neutrophil biochemistry and function: may oral dosage form of non-hydrolized dipeptide L-carnosine complement anti-infective anti-influenza flu treatment, prevention and self-care as an alternative to the conventional vaccination?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Babizhayev, Mark A; Deyev, Anatoliy I; Yegorov, Yegor E

    2014-05-01

    Influenza A is a viral disease of global dimension, presenting with high morbidity and mortality in annual epidemics, and in pandemics which are of infrequent occurrence but which have very high attack rates. Influenza vaccines of the future must be directed toward use of conserved group-specific viral antigens, such as are present in transitional proteins which are exposed during the fusion of virus to the host cell. Influenza probes revealed a continuing battle for survival between host and parasite in which the host population updates the specificity of its pool of humoral immunity by contact with and response to infection with the most recent viruses which possess altered antigenic specificity in their hemagglutinin (HA) ligand. It is well known that the HA protein is found on the surface of the influenza virus particle and is responsible for binding to receptors on host cells and initiating infection. Polymorphonuclear neutrophils (PMN) have been reported to be involved in the initial host response to influenza A virus (IAV). Early after IAV infection, neutrophils infiltrate the airway probably due to release of chemokines that attract PMN. Clearly, severe IAV infection is characterized by increased neutrophil influx into the lung or upper respiratory tract. Carnosine (β-alanyl-L-histidine) and anserine (N-β-alanyl-1-methyl-L-histidine) are found in skeletal muscle of most vertebrates, including those used for food; for example, 100 g of chicken breast contains 400 mg (17.6 mmol/L) of carnosine and 1020 mg (33.6 mmol/l) of anserine. Carnosine-stimulated respiratory burst in neutrophils is a universal biological mechanism of influenza virus destruction. Our own studies revealed previously unappreciated functional effects of carnosine and related histidine containing compounds as a natural biological prevention and barrier against Influenza virus infection, expand public understanding of the antiviral properties of imidazole-containing dipeptide based

  14. Highly pathogenic avian influenza.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swayne, D E; Suarez, D L

    2000-08-01

    Highly pathogenic (HP) avian influenza (AI) (HPAI) is an extremely contagious, multi-organ systemic disease of poultry leading to high mortality, and caused by some H5 and H7 subtypes of type A influenza virus, family Orthomyxoviridae. However, most AI virus strains are mildly pathogenic (MP) and produce either subclinical infections or respiratory and/or reproductive diseases in a variety of domestic and wild bird species. Highly pathogenic avian influenza is a List A disease of the Office International des Epizooties, while MPAI is neither a List A nor List B disease. Eighteen outbreaks of HPAI have been documented since the identification of AI virus as the cause of fowl plague in 1955. Mildly pathogenic avian influenza viruses are maintained in wild aquatic bird reservoirs, occasionally crossing over to domestic poultry and causing outbreaks of mild disease. Highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses do not have a recognised wild bird reservoir, but can occasionally be isolated from wild birds during outbreaks in domestic poultry. Highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses have been documented to arise from MPAI viruses through mutations in the haemagglutinin surface protein. Prevention of exposure to the virus and eradication are the accepted methods for dealing with HPAI. Control programmes, which imply allowing a low incidence of infection, are not an acceptable method for managing HPAI, but have been used during some outbreaks of MPAI. The components of a strategy to deal with MPAI or HPAI include surveillance and diagnosis, biosecurity, education, quarantine and depopulation. Vaccination has been used in some control and eradication programmes for AI.

  15. Human influenza viruses and CD8(+) T cell responses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grant, Emma J; Quiñones-Parra, Sergio M; Clemens, E Bridie; Kedzierska, Katherine

    2016-02-01

    Influenza A viruses (IAVs) cause significant morbidity and mortality worldwide, despite new strain-specific vaccines being available annually. As IAV-specific CD8(+) T cells promote viral control in the absence of neutralizing antibodies, and can mediate cross-reactive immunity toward distinct IAVs to drive rapid recovery from both mild and severe influenza disease, there is great interest in developing a universal T cell vaccine. However, despite detailed studies in mouse models of influenza virus infection, there is still a paucity of data on human epitope-specific CD8(+) T cell responses to IAVs. This review focuses on our current understanding of human CD8(+) T cell immunity against distinct IAVs and discusses the possibility of achieving a CD8(+) T cell mediated-vaccine that protects against multiple, distinct IAV strains across diverse human populations. We also review the importance of CD8(+) T cell immunity in individuals highly susceptible to severe influenza infection, including those hospitalised with influenza, the elderly and Indigenous populations. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  16. Triple-reassortant swine influenza A (H1) in humans in the United States, 2005-2009.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shinde, Vivek; Bridges, Carolyn B; Uyeki, Timothy M; Shu, Bo; Balish, Amanda; Xu, Xiyan; Lindstrom, Stephen; Gubareva, Larisa V; Deyde, Varough; Garten, Rebecca J; Harris, Meghan; Gerber, Susan; Vagasky, Susan; Smith, Forrest; Pascoe, Neal; Martin, Karen; Dufficy, Deborah; Ritger, Kathy; Conover, Craig; Quinlisk, Patricia; Klimov, Alexander; Bresee, Joseph S; Finelli, Lyn

    2009-06-18

    Triple-reassortant swine influenza A (H1) viruses--containing genes from avian, human, and swine influenza viruses--emerged and became enzootic among pig herds in North America during the late 1990s. We report the clinical features of the first 11 sporadic cases of infection of humans with triple-reassortant swine influenza A (H1) viruses reported to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, occurring from December 2005 through February 2009, until just before the current epidemic of swine-origin influenza A (H1N1) among humans. These data were obtained from routine national influenza surveillance reports and from joint case investigations by public and animal health agencies. The median age of the 11 patients was 10 years (range, 16 months to 48 years), and 4 had underlying health conditions. Nine of the patients had had exposure to pigs, five through direct contact and four through visits to a location where pigs were present but without contact. In another patient, human-to-human transmission was suspected. The range of the incubation period, from the last known exposure to the onset of symptoms, was 3 to 9 days. Among the 10 patients with known clinical symptoms, symptoms included fever (in 90%), cough (in 100%), headache (in 60%), and diarrhea (in 30%). Complete blood counts were available for four patients, revealing leukopenia in two, lymphopenia in one, and thrombocytopenia in another. Four patients were hospitalized, two of whom underwent invasive mechanical ventilation. Four patients received oseltamivir, and all 11 recovered from their illness. From December 2005 until just before the current human epidemic of swine-origin influenza viruses, there was sporadic infection with triple-reassortant swine influenza A (H1) viruses in persons with exposure to pigs in the United States. Although all the patients recovered, severe illness of the lower respiratory tract and unusual influenza signs such as diarrhea were observed in some patients, including

  17. Antiviral resistance and the control of pandemic influenza.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marc Lipsitch

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available The response to the next influenza pandemic will likely include extensive use of antiviral drugs (mainly oseltamivir, combined with other transmission-reducing measures. Animal and in vitro studies suggest that some strains of influenza may become resistant to oseltamivir while maintaining infectiousness (fitness. Use of antiviral agents on the scale anticipated for the control of pandemic influenza will create an unprecedented selective pressure for the emergence and spread of these strains. Nonetheless, antiviral resistance has received little attention when evaluating these plans.We designed and analyzed a deterministic compartmental model of the transmission of oseltamivir-sensitive and -resistant influenza infections during a pandemic. The model predicts that even if antiviral treatment or prophylaxis leads to the emergence of a transmissible resistant strain in as few as 1 in 50,000 treated persons and 1 in 500,000 prophylaxed persons, widespread use of antivirals may strongly promote the spread of resistant strains at the population level, leading to a prevalence of tens of percent by the end of a pandemic. On the other hand, even in circumstances in which a resistant strain spreads widely, the use of antivirals may significantly delay and/or reduce the total size of the pandemic. If resistant strains carry some fitness cost, then, despite widespread emergence of resistance, antivirals could slow pandemic spread by months or more, and buy time for vaccine development; this delay would be prolonged by nondrug control measures (e.g., social distancing that reduce transmission, or use of a stockpiled suboptimal vaccine. Surprisingly, the model suggests that such nondrug control measures would increase the proportion of the epidemic caused by resistant strains.The benefits of antiviral drug use to control an influenza pandemic may be reduced, although not completely offset, by drug resistance in the virus. Therefore, the risk of resistance

  18. Assessing the ecotoxicologic hazards of a pandemic influenza medical response.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singer, Andrew C; Colizza, Vittoria; Schmitt, Heike; Andrews, Johanna; Balcan, Duygu; Huang, Wei E; Keller, Virginie D J; Vespignani, Alessandro; Williams, Richard J

    2011-08-01

    The global public health community has closely monitored the unfolding of the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic to best mitigate its impact on society. However, little attention has been given to the impact of this response on the environment. Antivirals and antibiotics prescribed to treat influenza are excreted into wastewater in a biologically active form, which presents a new and potentially significant ecotoxicologic challenge to microorganisms responsible for wastewater nutrient removal in wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) and receiving rivers. We assessed the ecotoxicologic risks of a pandemic influenza medical response. To evaluate this risk, we coupled a global spatially structured epidemic model that simulates the quantities of antivirals and antibiotics used during an influenza pandemic of varying severity and a water quality model applied to the Thames catchment to determine predicted environmental concentrations. An additional model was then used to assess the effects of antibiotics on microorganisms in WWTPs and rivers. Consistent with expectations, our model projected a mild pandemic to exhibit a negligible ecotoxicologic hazard. In a moderate and severe pandemic, we projected WWTP toxicity to vary between 0-14% and 5-32% potentially affected fraction (PAF), respectively, and river toxicity to vary between 0-14% and 0-30% PAF, respectively, where PAF is the fraction of microbial species predicted to be growth inhibited (lower and upper 95% reference range). The current medical response to pandemic influenza might result in the discharge of insufficiently treated wastewater into receiving rivers, thereby increasing the risk of eutrophication and contamination of drinking water abstraction points. Widespread drugs in the environment could hasten the generation of drug resistance. Our results highlight the need for empirical data on the effects of antibiotics and antiviral medications on WWTPs and freshwater ecotoxicity.

  19. The Diabetes Epidemic in Korea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Junghyun Noh

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Diabetes is one of the foremost public health issues worldwide that can lead to complications in many organ systems, and has become a significant cause of morbidity and mortality in Korea. According to data from the National Health Insurance Service (NHIS, about 2.7 million Koreans (8.0% aged 30 years or older had type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM in 2013. The prevalence of T2DM increased with age and rose from 5.6% in 2006 to 8.0% in 2013. Using data based on The Health Screening Service of the NHIS, 25% of Korean adults were reported to have prediabetes in 2013. The prevalence of an impaired fasting glucose tended to increase over time from 21.5% in 2006 to 25.0% in 2013. Even though nationwide health screening has been regularly conducted as a public service, the proportion of undiagnosed cases of diabetes was still reported to be on the higher side in the latest study. Based on the results of these epidemic studies, further actions will be needed to effectively implement lifestyle changes on a social level and increase measures for the early detection of diabetes to stem the tide of the epidemic.

  20. Outbreak of avian influenza H7N3 on a turkey farm in the Netherlands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Velkers, F C; Bouma, A; Matthijs, M G R; Koch, G; Westendorp, S T; Stegeman, J A

    2006-09-23

    This case report describes the course of an outbreak of avian influenza on a Dutch turkey farm. When clinical signs were observed their cause remained unclear. However, serum samples taken for the monitoring campaign launched during the epidemic of highly pathogenic avian influenza in 2003, showed that all the remaining turkeys were seropositive against an H7 strain of avian influenza