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Sample records for annual influenza epidemic

  1. Influenza: Epidemics and Pandemics

    OpenAIRE

    Markovski, Velo

    2013-01-01

    Influenza is a viral, pandemic and respiratory disease with high morbidity particular and significant mortality rate amongst humans. WHO has counted that each outbreak of epidemic is costing between 10-60 million dollars to one million citizens and each year there are between 250.000 to 500.000 deaths caused by flu. Eight RNA segments of influenza A and B viruses and seven segments of the C viruses are independently encapsulated by viral nucleoprotein. The heamagglutinin is the most important...

  2. Global Seasonal Influenza Epidemics and Climate

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    Tamerius, James

    2013-04-01

    Recent evidence suggests that low specific humidity conditions facilitate the transmission of the influenza virus in temperate regions and result in annual winter epidemics. However, this relationship does not account for the epidemiology of influenza in tropical and subtropical regions where epidemics often occur during the rainy season or transmit year-round without a well-defined season. We assessed the role of specific humidity and other local climatic variables on influenza virus seasonality by modeling epidemiological and climatic information from 78 study sites sampled globally. We substantiated that there are two types of environmental conditions associated with seasonal influenza epidemics: "cold-dry" and "humid-rainy". For sites where monthly average specific humidity or temperature decreases below thresholds of approximately 11-12 g/kg and 18-21 °C during the year, influenza activity peaks during the cold-dry season (i.e., winter) when specific humidity and temperature are at minimal levels. For sites where specific humidity and temperature do not decrease below these thresholds, seasonal influenza activity is more likely to peak in months when average precipitation totals are maximal and greater than 150 mm per month. Based on these findings, we develop Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered-Susceptible (SEIRS) models forced by daily weather observations of specific humidity and precipitation that simulate the diversity of seasonal influenza signals worldwide.

  3. Can influenza epidemics be prevented by voluntary vaccination?

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    Raffaele Vardavas

    2007-05-01

    Full Text Available Previous modeling studies have identified the vaccination coverage level necessary for preventing influenza epidemics, but have not shown whether this critical coverage can be reached. Here we use computational modeling to determine, for the first time, whether the critical coverage for influenza can be achieved by voluntary vaccination. We construct a novel individual-level model of human cognition and behavior; individuals are characterized by two biological attributes (memory and adaptability that they use when making vaccination decisions. We couple this model with a population-level model of influenza that includes vaccination dynamics. The coupled models allow individual-level decisions to influence influenza epidemiology and, conversely, influenza epidemiology to influence individual-level decisions. By including the effects of adaptive decision-making within an epidemic model, we can reproduce two essential characteristics of influenza epidemiology: annual variation in epidemic severity and sporadic occurrence of severe epidemics. We suggest that individual-level adaptive decision-making may be an important (previously overlooked causal factor in driving influenza epidemiology. We find that severe epidemics cannot be prevented unless vaccination programs offer incentives. Frequency of severe epidemics could be reduced if programs provide, as an incentive to be vaccinated, several years of free vaccines to individuals who pay for one year of vaccination. Magnitude of epidemic amelioration will be determined by the number of years of free vaccination, an individuals' adaptability in decision-making, and their memory. This type of incentive program could control epidemics if individuals are very adaptable and have long-term memories. However, incentive-based programs that provide free vaccination for families could increase the frequency of severe epidemics. We conclude that incentive-based vaccination programs are necessary to control

  4. Environmental predictors of seasonal influenza epidemics across temperate and tropical climates.

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    James D Tamerius

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Human influenza infections exhibit a strong seasonal cycle in temperate regions. Recent laboratory and epidemiological evidence suggests that low specific humidity conditions facilitate the airborne survival and transmission of the influenza virus in temperate regions, resulting in annual winter epidemics. However, this relationship is unlikely to account for the epidemiology of influenza in tropical and subtropical regions where epidemics often occur during the rainy season or transmit year-round without a well-defined season. We assessed the role of specific humidity and other local climatic variables on influenza virus seasonality by modeling epidemiological and climatic information from 78 study sites sampled globally. We substantiated that there are two types of environmental conditions associated with seasonal influenza epidemics: "cold-dry" and "humid-rainy". For sites where monthly average specific humidity or temperature decreases below thresholds of approximately 11-12 g/kg and 18-21°C during the year, influenza activity peaks during the cold-dry season (i.e., winter when specific humidity and temperature are at minimal levels. For sites where specific humidity and temperature do not decrease below these thresholds, seasonal influenza activity is more likely to peak in months when average precipitation totals are maximal and greater than 150 mm per month. These findings provide a simple climate-based model rooted in empirical data that accounts for the diversity of seasonal influenza patterns observed across temperate, subtropical and tropical climates.

  5. Using clinicians' search query data to monitor influenza epidemics.

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    Santillana, Mauricio; Nsoesie, Elaine O; Mekaru, Sumiko R; Scales, David; Brownstein, John S

    2014-11-15

    Search query information from a clinician's database, UpToDate, is shown to predict influenza epidemics in the United States in a timely manner. Our results show that digital disease surveillance tools based on experts' databases may be able to provide an alternative, reliable, and stable signal for accurate predictions of influenza outbreaks.

  6. An Influence of Changes of Heliogeophysical Conditions on Influenza Epidemics

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    Elchin S. Babayev

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available For purposes of studying of possible influence of the solar and geomagnetic activity on influenza diseases and epidemic, the data covering the time period of 1976-2004 is studied for the Absheron Peninsula area including the capital city Baku (the Republic of Azerbaijan with several millions of inhabitants. Period, duration, intensity and seasonal behavior of the influenza epidemic, tendency of its beginning within a solar cycle are determined. Investigations reveal that influenza epidemic usually begins 2-3 years before and / or 2-3 years after the 11-years sunspot cycle maximum. We suppose that solar activity affects the influenza epidemic mainly through geomagnetic activity (magnetic storms. The comparative analysis of years of high solar activity and both periods of originating of epidemics and pandemics on the base of antigenic formulas of influenza viruses described with the help of characters of structure of a virus (hemagglutinin and neuraminidase has revealed definite regularity in the circulation of influenza infections. Forecast method for prophylactic measures is developed for considered region. Obtained results are interpreted and compared with similar ones.

  7. Local variations in spatial synchrony of influenza epidemics.

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    James H Stark

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Understanding the mechanism of influenza spread across multiple geographic scales is not complete. While the mechanism of dissemination across regions and states of the United States has been described, understanding the determinants of dissemination between counties has not been elucidated. The paucity of high resolution spatial-temporal influenza incidence data to evaluate disease structure is often not available. METHODOLOGY AND FINDINGS: We report on the underlying relationship between the spread of influenza and human movement between counties of one state. Significant synchrony in the timing of epidemics exists across the entire state and decay with distance (regional correlation=62%. Synchrony as a function of population size display evidence of hierarchical spread with more synchronized epidemics occurring among the most populated counties. A gravity model describing movement between two populations is a stronger predictor of influenza spread than adult movement to and from workplaces suggesting that non-routine and leisure travel drive local epidemics. CONCLUSIONS: These findings highlight the complex nature of influenza spread across multiple geographic scales.

  8. An epidemic of influenza on Tristan da Cunha.

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    Mantle, J; Tyrrell, D A

    1973-03-01

    Respiratory disease on Tristan da Cunha has been observed since the islanders returned in 1962. An epidemic of unprecedented severity occurred in the winter of 1971 and involved 273 (96%) of 284 islanders, 92 of whom had two attacks.The epidemic was apparently introduced by the Tristania.The illness of both first and second attacks ranged from mild to severe but there were some differences. There were two deaths, both in elderly persons with chronic chest disease and heart failure. Serological evidence suggests that this was due to influenza A2 of the Hong Kong serotype H(3)N(2).

  9. Deriving a model for influenza epidemics from historical data.

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    Ray, Jaideep; Lefantzi, Sophia

    2011-09-01

    In this report we describe how we create a model for influenza epidemics from historical data collected from both civilian and military societies. We derive the model when the population of the society is unknown but the size of the epidemic is known. Our interest lies in estimating a time-dependent infection rate to within a multiplicative constant. The model form fitted is chosen for its similarity to published models for HIV and plague, enabling application of Bayesian techniques to discriminate among infectious agents during an emerging epidemic. We have developed models for the progression of influenza in human populations. The model is framed as a integral, and predicts the number of people who exhibit symptoms and seek care over a given time-period. The start and end of the time period form the limits of integration. The disease progression model, in turn, contains parameterized models for the incubation period and a time-dependent infection rate. The incubation period model is obtained from literature, and the parameters of the infection rate are fitted from historical data including both military and civilian populations. The calibrated infection rate models display a marked difference in which the 1918 Spanish Influenza pandemic differed from the influenza seasons in the US between 2001-2008 and the progression of H1N1 in Catalunya, Spain. The data for the 1918 pandemic was obtained from military populations, while the rest are country-wide or province-wide data from the twenty-first century. We see that the initial growth of infection in all cases were about the same; however, military populations were able to control the epidemic much faster i.e., the decay of the infection-rate curve is much higher. It is not clear whether this was because of the much higher level of organization present in a military society or the seriousness with which the 1918 pandemic was addressed. Each outbreak to which the influenza model was fitted yields a separate set of

  10. The role of environmental transmission in recurrent avian influenza epidemics.

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    Romulus Breban

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available Avian influenza virus (AIV persists in North American wild waterfowl, exhibiting major outbreaks every 2-4 years. Attempts to explain the patterns of periodicity and persistence using simple direct transmission models are unsuccessful. Motivated by empirical evidence, we examine the contribution of an overlooked AIV transmission mode: environmental transmission. It is known that infectious birds shed large concentrations of virions in the environment, where virions may persist for a long time. We thus propose that, in addition to direct fecal/oral transmission, birds may become infected by ingesting virions that have long persisted in the environment. We design a new host-pathogen model that combines within-season transmission dynamics, between-season migration and reproduction, and environmental variation. Analysis of the model yields three major results. First, environmental transmission provides a persistence mechanism within small communities where epidemics cannot be sustained by direct transmission only (i.e., communities smaller than the critical community size. Second, environmental transmission offers a parsimonious explanation of the 2-4 year periodicity of avian influenza epidemics. Third, very low levels of environmental transmission (i.e., few cases per year are sufficient for avian influenza to persist in populations where it would otherwise vanish.

  11. On the relative role of different age groups in influenza epidemics

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    Colin J. Worby

    2015-12-01

    While the relative importance of different age groups in propagating influenza outbreaks varies, children aged 5–17 play the leading role during the largest influenza A epidemics. Extra vaccination efforts for this group may contribute to reducing the epidemic's impact in the whole community.

  12. Influenza

    OpenAIRE

    Ferroni, Eliana; Jefferson, Tom

    2011-01-01

    Influenza viruses are constantly altering their antigenic structure, and every year the WHO recommends which strains of influenza should be included in vaccines. During the autumn–winter months, influenza circulates more frequently (influenza seasons), causing a greater proportion of influenza-like illness and sometimes serious seasonal epidemics.The incidence of symptoms depends on the underlying immunity of the population.

  13. Influenza

    OpenAIRE

    Jefferson, Tom

    2009-01-01

    Influenza viruses are constantly altering their antigenic structure, and every year the WHO recommends which strains of influenza should be included in vaccines. During the autumn-winter months, influenza circulates more frequently (influenza seasons), causing a greater proportion of influenza-like illness, and sometimes serious seasonal epidemics.The incidence of infection depends on the underlying immunity of the population.

  14. [Differences in influenza epidemics in Osaka City--epidemiological surveillance of infectious disease].

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    Murakami, T; Haruki, K; Seto, Y; Kimura, T; Shibe, K; Minoshiro, S

    1994-05-01

    Influenza viruses in outpatients with influenza symptoms in Osaka City were analyzed in an epidemiological surveillance of infectious disease between 1989 and 1993. During influenza epidemics a mixed prevalence of several types of influenza viruses existed. Three types of influenza viruses, AH1, AH3 and B, were isolated during the 1990/1991 season. Remarkably the three types of viruses were discovered in samplings collected on the same day and within a narrow area inside a radius of 800-1,000m from the surveyed hospitals. Different types of viruses were detected between brothers and among school children from same housing complexes. Influenza AH3 viruses detected in 1992/1993 season differed in antigenicity from those detected in the 1990/1991 and 1991/1992 seasons. Therefore it appears that mutation of the AH3 virus contributed to the large-scale influenza epidemic which occurred in the 1992/1993 season. PMID:8049514

  15. [Differences in influenza epidemics in Osaka City--epidemiological surveillance of infectious disease].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murakami, T; Haruki, K; Seto, Y; Kimura, T; Shibe, K; Minoshiro, S

    1994-05-01

    Influenza viruses in outpatients with influenza symptoms in Osaka City were analyzed in an epidemiological surveillance of infectious disease between 1989 and 1993. During influenza epidemics a mixed prevalence of several types of influenza viruses existed. Three types of influenza viruses, AH1, AH3 and B, were isolated during the 1990/1991 season. Remarkably the three types of viruses were discovered in samplings collected on the same day and within a narrow area inside a radius of 800-1,000m from the surveyed hospitals. Different types of viruses were detected between brothers and among school children from same housing complexes. Influenza AH3 viruses detected in 1992/1993 season differed in antigenicity from those detected in the 1990/1991 and 1991/1992 seasons. Therefore it appears that mutation of the AH3 virus contributed to the large-scale influenza epidemic which occurred in the 1992/1993 season.

  16. FluTE, a Publicly Available Stochastic Influenza Epidemic Simulation Model

    OpenAIRE

    Chao, Dennis L.; Halloran, M. Elizabeth; Valerie J Obenchain; Longini, Ira M.

    2010-01-01

    Mathematical and computer models of epidemics have contributed to our understanding of the spread of infectious disease and the measures needed to contain or mitigate them. To help prepare for future influenza seasonal epidemics or pandemics, we developed a new stochastic model of the spread of influenza across a large population. Individuals in this model have realistic social contact networks, and transmission and infections are based on the current state of knowledge of the natural history...

  17. FluTE, a publicly available stochastic influenza epidemic simulation model.

    OpenAIRE

    Chao, Dennis L.; M. Elizabeth Halloran; Obenchain, Valerie J.; Longini, Ira M.

    2010-01-01

    Mathematical and computer models of epidemics have contributed to our understanding of the spread of infectious disease and the measures needed to contain or mitigate them. To help prepare for future influenza seasonal epidemics or pandemics, we developed a new stochastic model of the spread of influenza across a large population. Individuals in this model have realistic social contact networks, and transmission and infections are based on the current state of knowledge of the natural history...

  18. Universal influenza vaccines, science fiction or soon reality?

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    R.D. de Vries (Rory); A.F. Altenburg; G.F. Rimmelzwaan (Guus)

    2015-01-01

    textabstractCurrently used influenza vaccines are only effective when the vaccine strains match the epidemic strains antigenically. To this end, seasonal influenza vaccines must be updated almost annually. Furthermore, seasonal influenza vaccines fail to afford protection against antigenically disti

  19. Sickness Absenteeism Rate in Iranian Schools during the 2009 Epidemic of Type a Influenza

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    Pourabbasi, Ata; Shirvani, Mahbubeh Ebrahimnegad; Khashayar, Patricia

    2012-01-01

    Influenza pandemic was a global event in 2009 and intraschool transmission was its main spread method. The present study was designed to evaluate the absenteeism rate during the type A influenza epidemic. Four hundred and eight students from both a guidance school and high school in the Iranian capital were recruited in this retrospective study.…

  20. Excess mortality associated with influenza epidemics in Portugal, 1980 to 2004.

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    Baltazar Nunes

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Influenza epidemics have a substantial impact on human health, by increasing the mortality from pneumonia and influenza, respiratory and circulatory diseases, and all causes. This paper provides estimates of excess mortality rates associated with influenza virus circulation for 7 causes of death and 8 age groups in Portugal during the period of 1980-2004. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We compiled monthly mortality time series data by age for all-cause mortality, cerebrovascular diseases, ischemic heart diseases, diseases of the respiratory system, chronic respiratory diseases, pneumonia and influenza. We also used a control outcome, deaths from injuries. Age- and cause-specific baseline mortality was modelled by the ARIMA approach; excess deaths attributable to influenza were calculated by subtracting expected deaths from observed deaths during influenza epidemic periods. Influenza was associated with a seasonal average of 24.7 all-cause excess deaths per 100,000 inhabitants, approximately 90% of which were among seniors over 65 yrs. Excess mortality was 3-6 fold higher during seasons dominated by the A(H3N2 subtype than seasons dominated by A(H1N1/B. High excess mortality impact was also seen in children under the age of four years. Seasonal excess mortality rates from all the studied causes of death were highly correlated with each other (Pearson correlation range, 0.65 to 0.95, P0.64, P<0.05. By contrast, there was no correlation with excess mortality from injuries. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our excess mortality approach is specific to influenza virus activity and produces influenza-related mortality rates for Portugal that are similar to those published for other countries. Our results indicate that all-cause excess mortality is a robust indicator of influenza burden in Portugal, and could be used to monitor the impact of influenza epidemics in this country. Additional studies are warranted to confirm these findings in other

  1. [An influenza pandemic--a chronicle of an epidemic foretold].

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    Bodas, Moran; Balicer, Ran D

    2009-08-01

    Influenza is a striking example of a viral disease in which pathogens constantly change and adaptation is of major significance in the appearance of seasonal outbreaks. These, in turn, can become widespread, possibly pandemic. Pandemic influenza differs from seasonal influenza outbreaks essentially by the emergence of a novel strain of the virus that, at times, is also characterized by enhanced pathogenicity and virulence. The last three influenza pandemics have risen from avian influenza strains, although other subtypes are equally capable of producing pandemic strains. For example, the Latest influenza outbreak, which was declared by the World Health Organization as a pandemic, is of swine origin. A severe influenza pandemic may have significant consequences on social and economicaL structures. Therefore, proper prior planning is essential for capabilities built-up to better cope with possibly worse future pandemics. Each influenza pandemic poses a different challenge, but, nevertheless the basic means for response are similar. PMID:19899248

  2. The 2012-2013 influenza epidemic and the role of osteopathic manipulative medicine.

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    Mueller, Donna M

    2013-09-01

    The 2012-2013 influenza epidemic arrived approximately 4 weeks early, augmented by an unusual variant type-A ("swine flu") strain that caused greater-than-normal illness and a lack of efficacy in vaccination against it. Tens of thousands of people die of influenza or related complications during a nonepidemic influenza season. Osteopathic medicine can substantially help to address the complications that result from influenza. For example, during the deadly 1918-1919 Spanish influenza pandemic, osteopaths reduced patient mortality and morbidity by using lymphatic treatment techniques. Use of osteopathic manipulative treatment with vaccination, antiviral therapy, and chemoprophylaxis has potential to save lives and reduce complications. The present article describes the role of osteopathic manipulative treatment in the management of influenza and highlights current issues surrounding the use of antiviral therapy.

  3. Diagnosis and antiviral intervention strategies for mitigating an influenza epidemic.

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    Robert Moss

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Many countries have amassed antiviral stockpiles for pandemic preparedness. Despite extensive trial data and modelling studies, it remains unclear how to make optimal use of antiviral stockpiles within the constraints of healthcare infrastructure. Modelling studies informed recommendations for liberal antiviral distribution in the pandemic phase, primarily to prevent infection, but failed to account for logistical constraints clearly evident during the 2009 H1N1 outbreaks. Here we identify optimal delivery strategies for antiviral interventions accounting for logistical constraints, and so determine how to improve a strategy's impact. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We extend an existing SEIR model to incorporate finite diagnostic and antiviral distribution capacities. We evaluate the impact of using different diagnostic strategies to decide to whom antivirals are delivered. We then determine what additional capacity is required to achieve optimal impact. We identify the importance of sensitive and specific case ascertainment in the early phase of a pandemic response, when the proportion of false-positive presentations may be high. Once a substantial percentage of ILI presentations are caused by the pandemic strain, identification of cases for treatment on syndromic grounds alone results in a greater potential impact than a laboratory-dependent strategy. Our findings reinforce the need for a decentralised system capable of providing timely prophylaxis. CONCLUSIONS: We address specific real-world issues that must be considered in order to improve pandemic preparedness policy in a practical and methodologically sound way. Provision of antivirals on the scale proposed for an effective response is infeasible using traditional public health outbreak management and contact tracing approaches. The results indicate to change the transmission dynamics of an influenza epidemic with an antiviral intervention, a decentralised system is required for

  4. Predicting Fluctuating Rates of Hospitalizations in Relation to Influenza Epidemics and Meteorological Factors

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    Batton-Hubert, Mireille; Sarazin, Marianne

    2016-01-01

    Introduction In France, rates of hospital admissions increase at the peaks of influenza epidemics. Predicting influenza-associated hospitalizations could help to anticipate increased hospital activity. The purpose of this study is to identify predictors of influenza epidemics through the analysis of meteorological data, and medical data provided by general practitioners. Methods Historical data were collected from Meteo France, the Sentinelles network and hospitals’ information systems for a period of 8 years (2007–2015). First, connections between meteorological and medical data were estimated with the Pearson correlation coefficient, Principal component analysis and classification methods (Ward and k-means). Epidemic states of tested weeks were then predicted for each week during a one-year period using linear discriminant analysis. Finally, transition probabilities between epidemic states were calculated with the Markov Chain method. Results High correlations were found between influenza-associated hospitalizations and the variables: Sentinelles and emergency department admissions, and anti-correlations were found between hospitalizations and each of meteorological factors applying a time lag of: -13, -12 and -32 days respectively for temperature, absolute humidity and solar radiation. Epidemic weeks were predicted accurately with the linear discriminant analysis method; however there were many misclassifications about intermediate and non-epidemic weeks. Transition probability to an epidemic state was 100% when meteorological variables were below: 2°C, 4 g/m3 and 32 W/m2, respectively for temperature, absolute humidity and solar radiation. This probability was 0% when meteorological variables were above: 6°C, 5.8g/m3 and 74W/m2. Conclusion These results confirm a good correlation between influenza-associated hospitalizations, meteorological factors and general practitioner’s activity, the latter being the strongest predictor of hospital activity. PMID

  5. Predicting Fluctuating Rates of Hospitalizations in Relation to Influenza Epidemics and Meteorological Factors.

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    Radia Spiga

    Full Text Available In France, rates of hospital admissions increase at the peaks of influenza epidemics. Predicting influenza-associated hospitalizations could help to anticipate increased hospital activity. The purpose of this study is to identify predictors of influenza epidemics through the analysis of meteorological data, and medical data provided by general practitioners.Historical data were collected from Meteo France, the Sentinelles network and hospitals' information systems for a period of 8 years (2007-2015. First, connections between meteorological and medical data were estimated with the Pearson correlation coefficient, Principal component analysis and classification methods (Ward and k-means. Epidemic states of tested weeks were then predicted for each week during a one-year period using linear discriminant analysis. Finally, transition probabilities between epidemic states were calculated with the Markov Chain method.High correlations were found between influenza-associated hospitalizations and the variables: Sentinelles and emergency department admissions, and anti-correlations were found between hospitalizations and each of meteorological factors applying a time lag of: -13, -12 and -32 days respectively for temperature, absolute humidity and solar radiation. Epidemic weeks were predicted accurately with the linear discriminant analysis method; however there were many misclassifications about intermediate and non-epidemic weeks. Transition probability to an epidemic state was 100% when meteorological variables were below: 2°C, 4 g/m3 and 32 W/m2, respectively for temperature, absolute humidity and solar radiation. This probability was 0% when meteorological variables were above: 6°C, 5.8g/m3 and 74W/m2.These results confirm a good correlation between influenza-associated hospitalizations, meteorological factors and general practitioner's activity, the latter being the strongest predictor of hospital activity.

  6. Sequential detection of influenza epidemics by the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test

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    Closas Pau

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Influenza is a well known and common human respiratory infection, causing significant morbidity and mortality every year. Despite Influenza variability, fast and reliable outbreak detection is required for health resource planning. Clinical health records, as published by the Diagnosticat database in Catalonia, host useful data for probabilistic detection of influenza outbreaks. Methods This paper proposes a statistical method to detect influenza epidemic activity. Non-epidemic incidence rates are modeled against the exponential distribution, and the maximum likelihood estimate for the decaying factor λ is calculated. The sequential detection algorithm updates the parameter as new data becomes available. Binary epidemic detection of weekly incidence rates is assessed by Kolmogorov-Smirnov test on the absolute difference between the empirical and the cumulative density function of the estimated exponential distribution with significance level 0 ≤ α ≤ 1. Results The main advantage with respect to other approaches is the adoption of a statistically meaningful test, which provides an indicator of epidemic activity with an associated probability. The detection algorithm was initiated with parameter λ0 = 3.8617 estimated from the training sequence (corresponding to non-epidemic incidence rates of the 2008-2009 influenza season and sequentially updated. Kolmogorov-Smirnov test detected the following weeks as epidemic for each influenza season: 50−10 (2008-2009 season, 38−50 (2009-2010 season, weeks 50−9 (2010-2011 season and weeks 3 to 12 for the current 2011-2012 season. Conclusions Real medical data was used to assess the validity of the approach, as well as to construct a realistic statistical model of weekly influenza incidence rates in non-epidemic periods. For the tested data, the results confirmed the ability of the algorithm to detect the start and the end of epidemic periods. In general, the proposed test could

  7. Dependence of the results of ecological-epidemic investigation of influenza A(H1N1) on immunity

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    Fathudinova, Mohinav; Alimova, Barno; Rahimova, Halima

    2016-07-01

    This report presents the results of ecology-epidemical and immunological researches influ-enza virus A (H1 N1) and acute respiratory infection in Dushanbe from 2011 till 2015. The received results epidemiological and immunological analysis showed us, that last years has been changed not only characteristics of influenza epidemic, but it can not be notice the low-er of intensively of the collective immunity to actual versions influenza viruses A and B

  8. Annually repeated influenza vaccination improves humoral responses to several influenza virus strains in healthy elderly

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    I.A. de Bruijn (Iris); E.J. Remarque (Edmond); W.E.Ph. Beyer (Walter); S. le Cessie (Saskia); N. Masurel (Nic); G.L. Ligthart (Gerard)

    1997-01-01

    textabstractThe benefit of annually repeated influenza vaccination on antibody formation is still under debate. In this study the effect of annually repeated influenza vaccination on haemagglutination inhibiting (HI) antibody formation in the elderly is investigated. Between 1990 and 1993 healthy yo

  9. Modeling influenza epidemics and pandemics: insights into the future of swine flu (H1N1)

    OpenAIRE

    Blower Sally; Wagner Bradley G; Coburn Brian J

    2009-01-01

    Abstract Here we present a review of the literature of influenza modeling studies, and discuss how these models can provide insights into the future of the currently circulating novel strain of influenza A (H1N1), formerly known as swine flu. We discuss how the feasibility of controlling an epidemic critically depends on the value of the Basic Reproduction Number (R0). The R0 for novel influenza A (H1N1) has recently been estimated to be between 1.4 and 1.6. This value is below values of R0 e...

  10. Non-stationary dynamics of climate variability in synchronous influenza epidemics in Japan

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    Onozuka, Daisuke; Hagihara, Akihito

    2015-09-01

    Seasonal variation in the incidence of influenza is widely assumed. However, few studies have examined non-stationary relationships between global climate factors and influenza epidemics. We examined the monthly incidence of influenza in Fukuoka, Japan, from 2000 to 2012 using cross-wavelet coherency analysis to assess the patterns of associations between indices for the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The monthly incidence of influenza showed cycles of 1 year with the IOD and 2 years with ENSO indices (Multivariate, Niño 4, and Niño 3.4). These associations were non-stationary and appeared to have major influences on the synchrony of influenza epidemics. Our study provides quantitative evidence that non-stationary associations have major influences on synchrony between the monthly incidence of influenza and the dynamics of the IOD and ENSO. Our results call for the consideration of non-stationary patterns of association between influenza cases and climatic factors in early warning systems.

  11. Searching of Main Cause Leading to Severe Influenza A Virus Mutations and Consequently to Influenza Pandemics/Epidemics

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    Guang Wu

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available The unpredictable mutations in the proteins from influenza A virus lead to the great difficulty in prevention of possible outbreak of bird flu and pandemic/epidemic of influenza. This unpredictability is due to the fact that we know little about the causes that lead to the mutations. In three of our recent studies on the hemagglutinins from influenza A virus, we unintentionally noticed the periodicity of mutations in hemagglutinins similar to the periodicity of sunspot. We calculated the amino-acid pair predictability and amino-acid distribution rank, which are developed by us over last several years and can numerically present the evolution of proteins in question, of 1217 full-length hemagglutinins from influenza A viruses. We then used the fast Fourier transform to determine the periodicity of mutations in the hemagglutinins. We compare the periodicities of mutations in influenza A virus hemagglutinins with those of solar and galactic cosmic rays and find a main periodicity of the mutations identical to that of sunspot and neutron rate (11 years/circle. Then we plot the sunspot number with respect to the historical pandemics/epidemics/non-pandemic new strains over last three centuries and compare the recorded sunspots with the historical pandemics before 1700. Both show a good agreement between sunspot activity and influenza related events. As the histories of Sun and galaxy are incomparably much longer than the history of influenza virus, the only logical deduction is that the hemagglutinin periodicities, which are identical to the periodicities of solar and galactic cosmic rays, are attribute to the solar and galactic activity. As the hemagglutinin is a sample of influenza A virus, we can logically deduce the role of migratory wild birds on the outbreak of bird flu and influenza, that is, cosmic rays are heading towards the polar regions, where more mutations occur in influenza A virus either within the wild birds or in their living

  12. Sensitivity analysis of an individual-based model for simulation of influenza epidemics.

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    Elaine O Nsoesie

    Full Text Available Individual-based epidemiology models are increasingly used in the study of influenza epidemics. Several studies on influenza dynamics and evaluation of intervention measures have used the same incubation and infectious period distribution parameters based on the natural history of influenza. A sensitivity analysis evaluating the influence of slight changes to these parameters (in addition to the transmissibility would be useful for future studies and real-time modeling during an influenza pandemic.In this study, we examined individual and joint effects of parameters and ranked parameters based on their influence on the dynamics of simulated epidemics. We also compared the sensitivity of the model across synthetic social networks for Montgomery County in Virginia and New York City (and surrounding metropolitan regions with demographic and rural-urban differences. In addition, we studied the effects of changing the mean infectious period on age-specific epidemics. The research was performed from a public health standpoint using three relevant measures: time to peak, peak infected proportion and total attack rate. We also used statistical methods in the design and analysis of the experiments. The results showed that: (i minute changes in the transmissibility and mean infectious period significantly influenced the attack rate; (ii the mean of the incubation period distribution appeared to be sufficient for determining its effects on the dynamics of epidemics; (iii the infectious period distribution had the strongest influence on the structure of the epidemic curves; (iv the sensitivity of the individual-based model was consistent across social networks investigated in this study and (v age-specific epidemics were sensitive to changes in the mean infectious period irrespective of the susceptibility of the other age groups. These findings suggest that small changes in some of the disease model parameters can significantly influence the uncertainty

  13. FluTE, a publicly available stochastic influenza epidemic simulation model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dennis L Chao

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Mathematical and computer models of epidemics have contributed to our understanding of the spread of infectious disease and the measures needed to contain or mitigate them. To help prepare for future influenza seasonal epidemics or pandemics, we developed a new stochastic model of the spread of influenza across a large population. Individuals in this model have realistic social contact networks, and transmission and infections are based on the current state of knowledge of the natural history of influenza. The model has been calibrated so that outcomes are consistent with the 1957/1958 Asian A(H2N2 and 2009 pandemic A(H1N1 influenza viruses. We present examples of how this model can be used to study the dynamics of influenza epidemics in the United States and simulate how to mitigate or delay them using pharmaceutical interventions and social distancing measures. Computer simulation models play an essential role in informing public policy and evaluating pandemic preparedness plans. We have made the source code of this model publicly available to encourage its use and further development.

  14. Leading Indicators and the Evaluation of the Performance of Alerts for Influenza Epidemics.

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    Dena L Schanzer

    Full Text Available Most evaluations of epidemic thresholds for influenza have been limited to internal criteria of the indicator variable. We aimed to initiate discussion on appropriate methods for evaluation and the value of cross-validation in assessing the performance of a candidate indicator for influenza activity.Hospital records of in-patients with a diagnosis of confirmed influenza were extracted from the Canadian Discharge Abstract Database from 2003 to 2011 and aggregated to weekly and regional levels, yielding 7 seasons and 4 regions for evaluation (excluding the 2009 pandemic period. An alert created from the weekly time-series of influenza positive laboratory tests (FluWatch, Public Health Agency of Canada was evaluated against influenza-confirmed hospitalizations on 5 criteria: lead/lag timing; proportion of influenza hospitalizations covered by the alert period; average length of the influenza alert period; continuity of the alert period and length of the pre-peak alert period.Influenza hospitalizations led laboratory positive tests an average of only 1.6 (95% CI: -1.5, 4.7 days. However, the difference in timing exceeded 1 week and was statistically significant at the significance level of 0.01 in 5 out of 28 regional seasons. An alert based primarily on 5% positivity and 15 positive tests produced an average alert period of 16.6 weeks. After allowing for a reporting delay of 2 weeks, the alert period included 80% of all influenza-confirmed hospitalizations. For 20 out of the 28 (71% seasons, the first alert would have been signalled at least 3 weeks (in real time prior to the week with maximum number of influenza hospitalizations.Virological data collected from laboratories was a good indicator of influenza activity with the resulting alert covering most influenza hospitalizations and providing a reasonable pre-peak warning at the regional level. Though differences in timing were statistically significant, neither time-series consistently led the

  15. Global Dynamics of Avian Influenza Epidemic Models with Psychological Effect

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sanhong Liu

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Cross-sectional surveys conducted in Thailand and China after the outbreaks of the avian influenza A H5N1 and H7N9 viruses show a high degree of awareness of human avian influenza in both urban and rural populations, a higher level of proper hygienic practice among urban residents, and in particular a dramatically reduced number of visits to live markets in urban population after the influenza A H7N9 outbreak in China in 2013. In this paper, taking into account the psychological effect toward avian influenza in the human population, a bird-to-human transmission model in which the avian population exhibits saturation effect is constructed. The dynamical behavior of the model is studied by using the basic reproduction number. The results demonstrate that the saturation effect within avian population and the psychological effect in human population cannot change the stability of equilibria but can affect the number of infected humans if the disease is prevalent. Numerical simulations are given to support the theoretical results and sensitivity analyses of the basic reproduction number in terms of model parameters that are performed to seek for effective control measures for avian influenza.

  16. Surveillance and vaccine effectiveness of an influenza epidemic predominated by vaccine-mismatched influenza B/Yamagata-lineage viruses in Taiwan, 2011-12 season.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yi-Chun Lo

    Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: The 2011-12 trivalent influenza vaccine contains a strain of influenza B/Victoria-lineage viruses. Despite free provision of influenza vaccine among target populations, an epidemic predominated by influenza B/Yamagata-lineage viruses occurred during the 2011-12 season in Taiwan. We characterized this vaccine-mismatched epidemic and estimated influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE. METHODS: Influenza activity was monitored through sentinel viral surveillance, emergency department (ED and outpatient influenza-like illness (ILI syndromic surveillance, and case-based surveillance of influenza with complications and deaths. VE against laboratory-confirmed influenza was evaluated through a case-control study on ILI patients enrolled into sentinel viral surveillance. Logistic regression was used to estimate VE adjusted for confounding factors. RESULTS: During July 2011-June 2012, influenza B accounted for 2,382 (72.5% of 3,285 influenza-positive respiratory specimens. Of 329 influenza B viral isolates with antigen characterization, 287 (87.2% were B/Yamagata-lineage viruses. Proportions of ED and outpatient visits being ILI-related increased from November 2011 to January 2012. Of 1,704 confirmed cases of influenza with complications, including 154 (9.0% deaths, influenza B accounted for 1,034 (60.7% of the confirmed cases and 103 (66.9% of the deaths. Reporting rates of confirmed influenza with complications and deaths were 73.5 and 6.6 per 1,000,000, respectively, highest among those aged ≥65 years, 50-64 years, 3-6 years, and 0-2 years. Adjusted VE was -31% (95% CI: -80, 4 against all influenza, 54% (95% CI: 3, 78 against influenza A, and -66% (95% CI: -132, -18 against influenza B. CONCLUSIONS: This influenza epidemic in Taiwan was predominated by B/Yamagata-lineage viruses unprotected by the 2011-12 trivalent vaccine. The morbidity and mortality of this vaccine-mismatched epidemic warrants careful consideration of introducing a

  17. Domestic Ducks and H5N1 Influenza Epidemic, Thailand

    OpenAIRE

    Songserm, Thaweesak; Jam-on, Rungroj; Sae-Heng, Numdee; Meemak, Noppadol; Hulse-Post, Diane J.; Sturm-Ramirez, Katharine M.; Webster, Robert G.

    2006-01-01

    In addition to causing 12 human deaths and 17 cases of human infection, the 2004 outbreak of H5N1 influenza virus in Thailand resulted in the death or slaughter of 60 million domestic fowl and the disruption of poultry production and trade. After domestic ducks were recognized as silent carriers of H5N1 influenza virus, government teams went into every village to cull flocks in which virus was detected; these team efforts markedly reduced H5N1 infection. Here we examine the pathobiology and e...

  18. Influenza epidemics in Iceland over 9 decades: changes in timing and synchrony with the United States and Europe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weinberger, Daniel M; Krause, Tyra Grove; Mølbak, Kåre; Cliff, Andrew; Briem, Haraldur; Viboud, Cécile; Gottfredsson, Magnus

    2012-10-01

    Influenza epidemics exhibit a strongly seasonal pattern, with winter peaks that occur with similar timing across temperate areas of the Northern Hemisphere. This synchrony could be influenced by population movements, environmental factors, host immunity, and viral characteristics. The historical isolation of Iceland and subsequent increase in international contacts make it an ideal setting to study epidemic timing. The authors evaluated changes in the timing and regional synchrony of influenza epidemics using mortality and morbidity data from Iceland, North America, and Europe during the period from 1915 to 2007. Cross-correlations and wavelet analyses highlighted 2 major changes in influenza epidemic patterns in Iceland: first was a shift from nonseasonal epidemics prior to the 1930s to a regular winter-seasonal pattern, and second was a change in the early 1990s when a 1-month lag between Iceland and the United States and Europe was no longer detectable with monthly data. There was a moderate association between increased synchrony and the number of foreign visitors to Iceland, providing a plausible explanation for the second shift in epidemic timing. This suggests that transportation might have a minor effect on epidemic timing, but efforts to restrict air travel during influenza epidemics would likely have a limited impact, even for island populations.

  19. Modelling the effects of media during an influenza epidemic

    OpenAIRE

    Collinson, Shannon; Heffernan, Jane M.

    2014-01-01

    Background Mass media is used to inform individuals regarding diseases within a population. The effects of mass media during disease outbreaks have been studied in the mathematical modelling literature, by including ‘media functions’ that affect transmission rates in mathematical epidemiological models. The choice of function to employ, however, varies, and thus, epidemic outcomes that are important to inform public health may be affected. Methods We present a survey of the disease modelling ...

  20. Accurate estimation of influenza epidemics using Google search data via ARGO.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Shihao; Santillana, Mauricio; Kou, S C

    2015-11-24

    Accurate real-time tracking of influenza outbreaks helps public health officials make timely and meaningful decisions that could save lives. We propose an influenza tracking model, ARGO (AutoRegression with GOogle search data), that uses publicly available online search data. In addition to having a rigorous statistical foundation, ARGO outperforms all previously available Google-search-based tracking models, including the latest version of Google Flu Trends, even though it uses only low-quality search data as input from publicly available Google Trends and Google Correlate websites. ARGO not only incorporates the seasonality in influenza epidemics but also captures changes in people's online search behavior over time. ARGO is also flexible, self-correcting, robust, and scalable, making it a potentially powerful tool that can be used for real-time tracking of other social events at multiple temporal and spatial resolutions.

  1. Comparison of filtering methods for the modeling and retrospective forecasting of influenza epidemics.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wan Yang

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available A variety of filtering methods enable the recursive estimation of system state variables and inference of model parameters. These methods have found application in a range of disciplines and settings, including engineering design and forecasting, and, over the last two decades, have been applied to infectious disease epidemiology. For any system of interest, the ideal filter depends on the nonlinearity and complexity of the model to which it is applied, the quality and abundance of observations being entrained, and the ultimate application (e.g. forecast, parameter estimation, etc.. Here, we compare the performance of six state-of-the-art filter methods when used to model and forecast influenza activity. Three particle filters--a basic particle filter (PF with resampling and regularization, maximum likelihood estimation via iterated filtering (MIF, and particle Markov chain Monte Carlo (pMCMC--and three ensemble filters--the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF, the ensemble adjustment Kalman filter (EAKF, and the rank histogram filter (RHF--were used in conjunction with a humidity-forced susceptible-infectious-recovered-susceptible (SIRS model and weekly estimates of influenza incidence. The modeling frameworks, first validated with synthetic influenza epidemic data, were then applied to fit and retrospectively forecast the historical incidence time series of seven influenza epidemics during 2003-2012, for 115 cities in the United States. Results suggest that when using the SIRS model the ensemble filters and the basic PF are more capable of faithfully recreating historical influenza incidence time series, while the MIF and pMCMC do not perform as well for multimodal outbreaks. For forecast of the week with the highest influenza activity, the accuracies of the six model-filter frameworks are comparable; the three particle filters perform slightly better predicting peaks 1-5 weeks in the future; the ensemble filters are more accurate predicting peaks in

  2. Seasonal Influenza: An Overview

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Christina; Freedman, Marian

    2009-01-01

    Seasonal influenza is a major cause of morbidity and mortality in the United States. It also has major social and economic consequences in the form of high rates of absenteeism from school and work as well as significant treatment and hospitalization costs. In fact, annual influenza epidemics and the resulting deaths and lost days of productivity…

  3. Modeling influenza epidemics and pandemics: insights into the future of swine flu (H1N1

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Blower Sally

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Here we present a review of the literature of influenza modeling studies, and discuss how these models can provide insights into the future of the currently circulating novel strain of influenza A (H1N1, formerly known as swine flu. We discuss how the feasibility of controlling an epidemic critically depends on the value of the Basic Reproduction Number (R0. The R0 for novel influenza A (H1N1 has recently been estimated to be between 1.4 and 1.6. This value is below values of R0 estimated for the 1918–1919 pandemic strain (mean R0~2: range 1.4 to 2.8 and is comparable to R0 values estimated for seasonal strains of influenza (mean R0 1.3: range 0.9 to 2.1. By reviewing results from previous modeling studies we conclude it is theoretically possible that a pandemic of H1N1 could be contained. However it may not be feasible, even in resource-rich countries, to achieve the necessary levels of vaccination and treatment for control. As a recent modeling study has shown, a global cooperative strategy will be essential in order to control a pandemic. This strategy will require resource-rich countries to share their vaccines and antivirals with resource-constrained and resource-poor countries. We conclude our review by discussing the necessity of developing new biologically complex models. We suggest that these models should simultaneously track the transmission dynamics of multiple strains of influenza in bird, pig and human populations. Such models could be critical for identifying effective new interventions, and informing pandemic preparedness planning. Finally, we show that by modeling cross-species transmission it may be possible to predict the emergence of pandemic strains of influenza.

  4. Victoria Brú Sánchez and the epidemic of influenza in Cienfuegos, 1918

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Reinaldo José Pino Blanco

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Brief biographical data are exposed about the nurse Victoria Brú Sánchez, such as her birth, childhood and adolescent years. Some factors are mentioned that influenced in their vocational orientation toward the Infirmary, such as her family antecedents and personal experiences when witnessing other epidemics that whipped our population in those years. We refer too her life as student of the School of Nurses in the Hospital Nuestra Señora de las Mercedes de La Habana. It is mentioned as well all the places where she worked after graduation and the different positions that she occupied during its brief, but brilliant, professional life. The most characteristic features in her personality and her self-denying and heroic behavior, are analyzed, principally during the epidemic of Influenza that affected Cienfuegos in the year 1918, moment in which she lost the life trying to help other people.

  5. Genomic characterization of influenza A (H7N9) viruses isolated in Shenzhen, Southern China, during the second epidemic wave.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fang, Shisong; Wang, Xin; Dong, Fangyuan; Jin, Tao; Liu, Guang; Lu, Xing; Peng, Bo; Wu, Weihua; Liu, Hui; Kong, Dongfeng; Tang, Xiujuan; Qin, Yanmin; Mei, Shujiang; Xie, Xu; He, Jianfan; Ma, Hanwu; Zhang, Renli; Cheng, Jinquan

    2016-08-01

    There were three epidemic waves of human infection with avian influenza A (H7N9) virus in 2013-2014. While many analyses of the genomic origin, evolution, and molecular characteristics of the influenza A (H7N9) virus have been performed using sequences from the first epidemic wave, genomic characterization of the virus from the second epidemic wave has been comparatively less reported. In this study, an in-depth analysis was performed with respect to the genomic characteristics of 11 H7N9 virus strains isolated from confirmed cases and four H7N9 virus strains isolated from environmental samples in Shenzhen during the second epidemic wave. Phylogenetic analysis demonstrated that six internal segments of the influenza A (H7N9) virus isolated from confirmed cases and environmental samples in Shenzhen were clustered into two different clades and that the origin of the influenza A (H7N9) virus isolated from confirmed cases in Shenzhen was different from that of viruses isolated during the first wave. In addition, H9N2 viruses, which were prevalent in southern China, played an important role in the reassortment of the influenza A (H7N9) virus isolated in Shenzhen. HA-R47K and -T122A, PB2-V139I, PB1-I397M, and NS1-T216P were the signature amino acids of the influenza A (H7N9) virus isolated from confirmed cases in Shenzhen. We found that the HA, NA, M, and PA genes of the A(H7N9) viruses underwent positive selection in the human population. Therefore, enhanced surveillance should be carried out to determine the origin and mode of transmission of the novel influenza A (H7N9) virus and to facilitate the formulation of effective policies for prevention and containment of a human infection epidemics. PMID:27169600

  6. Influenza Update 2000

    OpenAIRE

    Kemmerly, Sandra Abadie

    2000-01-01

    Between 30,000–40,000 Americans die annually as a result of influenza epidemics. Spread primarily through the respiratory tract, influenza's classic signs and symptoms are the abrupt onset of fever, myalgia, headache, sore throat, malaise, and nonproductive cough. The elderly and patients with underlying medical illnesses may be at risk for secondary complications. Influenza is caused by an RNA myxovirus that exists in types A, B, and C; however, the A and B types are responsible for most hum...

  7. Universal influenza vaccines, science fiction or soon reality?

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Vries, Rory D; Altenburg, Arwen F; Rimmelzwaan, Guus F

    2015-01-01

    Currently used influenza vaccines are only effective when the vaccine strains match the epidemic strains antigenically. To this end, seasonal influenza vaccines must be updated almost annually. Furthermore, seasonal influenza vaccines fail to afford protection against antigenically distinct pandemic influenza viruses. Because of an ever-present threat of the next influenza pandemic and the continuous emergence of drift variants of seasonal influenza A viruses, there is a need for an universal influenza vaccine that induces protective immunity against all influenza A viruses. Here, we summarize some of the efforts that are ongoing to develop universal influenza vaccines.

  8. Human vs. animal outbreaks of the 2009 swine-origin H1N1 influenza A epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scotch, Matthew; Brownstein, John S; Vegso, Sally; Galusha, Deron; Rabinowitz, Peter

    2011-09-01

    The majority of emerging infectious diseases are zoonotic in origin, including recently emerging influenza viruses such as the 2009 swine-origin H1N1 influenza A epidemic. The epidemic that year affected both human and animal populations as it spread globally. In fact, before the end of 2009, 14 different countries reported H1N1 infected swine. In order to better understand the zoonotic nature of the epidemic and the relationship between human and animal disease surveillance data streams, we compared 2009 reports of H1N1 infection to define the temporal relationship between reported cases in animals and humans. Generally, human cases preceded animal cases at a country-level, supporting the potential of H1N1 infection to be a "reverse zoonosis", and the value of integrating human and animal disease report data. PMID:21912985

  9. Phylogenetic analysis of influenza A viruses (H3N2 circulating in Zhytomyr region during 2013–2014 epidemic season

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Boyalska O. G.

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Aim. To perform phylogenetic analysis of the hemagglutinin (HA and neuraminidase (NA genes of influenza A(H3N2 viruses circulating in the Zhytomyr region during 2013–2014 epidemic season. To make comparison of the HA and NA genes sequences of the Zhytomyr region isolates with the HA and NA genes sequences of influenza viruses circulating in the world. Methods. Laboratory diagnosis was conducted by real-time polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR. In this study the sequencing and phylogenetic analysis were carried out. Results. For the first time the genes of influenza A(H3N2 viruses isolated in the Zhytomyr region during 2013–2014 epidemic season, coding hemagglutinin and neuraminidase were compared with their orthologs. According to the results of this comparison the phylogenetic tree was constructed. Additionally, the amino acid substitutions of the influenza viruses circulating in Ukraine and worldwide were analyzed. Conclusions. The nucleotide sequences of the influenza A(H3N2 viruses genes HA and NA isolated in the Zhytomyr region were identified. Based on the nucleotide sequences of HA and NA we constructed the influenza virus phylogenetic tree demonstrating that the virus isolated in the Zhytomyr region was closely related to the Ukrainian isolate from Kharkov and in the world to the isolates from Germany, Romania, Italy.

  10. Influenza: diagnosis, management, and prophylaxis.

    OpenAIRE

    WISELKA, M.

    1994-01-01

    Influenza causes enormous morbidity, death, and economic loss. Annual vaccination is strongly recommended for groups at high risk. Amantadine is effective treatment for and prophylaxis against influenza A during epidemics. New developments include rapid laboratory diagnosis, live attenuated vaccines, and antiviral drugs.

  11. Alternative Live-Attenuated Influenza Vaccines Based on Modifications in the Polymerase Genes Protect against Epidemic and Pandemic Flu▿

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solórzano, Alicia; Ye, Jianqiang; Pérez, Daniel R.

    2010-01-01

    Human influenza is a seasonal disease associated with significant morbidity and mortality. Influenza vaccination is the most effective means for disease prevention. We have previously shown that mutations in the PB1 and PB2 genes of the live-attenuated influenza vaccine (LAIV) from the cold-adapted (ca) influenza virus A/Ann Arbor/6/60 (H2N2) could be transferred to avian influenza viruses and produce partially attenuated viruses. We also demonstrated that avian influenza viruses carrying the PB1 and PB2 mutations could be further attenuated by stably introducing a hemagglutinin (HA) epitope tag in the PB1 gene. In this work, we wanted to determine whether these modifications would also result in attenuation of a so-called triple reassortant (TR) swine influenza virus (SIV). Thus, the TR influenza A/swine/Wisconsin/14094/99 (H3N2) virus was generated by reverse genetics and subsequently mutated in the PB1 and PB2 genes. Here we show that a combination of mutations in this TR backbone results in an attenuated virus in vitro and in vivo. Furthermore, we show the potential of our TR backbone as a vaccine that provides protection against the 2009 swine-origin pandemic influenza H1N1 virus (S-OIV) when carrying the surface of a classical swine strain. We propose that the availability of alternative backbones to the conventional ca A/Ann Arbor/6/60 LAIV strain could also be useful in epidemic and pandemic influenza and should be considered for influenza vaccine development. In addition, our data provide evidence that the use of these alternative backbones could potentially circumvent the effects of original antigenic sin (OAS) in certain circumstances. PMID:20181702

  12. THE COMPARATIVE SUSCEPTIBILITY OF FETAL AND POSTNATAL GUINEA PIGS TO THE VIRUS OF EPIDEMIC INFLUENZA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dettwiler, H A; Hudson, N P; Woolpert, O C

    1940-11-30

    Experiments were carried out to determine the relative susceptibility of guinea pigs at different ages to the virus of epidemic influenza. From a correlation of these studies on the mature fetus, the newborn, and the adult animal, with previously reported findings on the immature fetus, we draw two conclusions: first, that there is a gradually increasing resistance to infection with this virus during intrauterine development, with but little change thereafter; and second, that at the time of birth there is a sudden loss of infectibility by routes other than the intranasal. These results illustrate then the benefits which may accrue if one projects into the period of antenatal life studies dealing with the age factor in relation to susceptibility to infection. It is implied that data collected from observations of the postnatal animal alone are of necessity incomplete and may be misleading. PMID:19871047

  13. Vaccination of high-risk patients against influenza : impact on primary care contact rates during epidemics. Analysis of routinely collected data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tacken, M A J B; Braspenning, J C C; Berende, A; Hak, E; De Bakker, D H; Groenewegen, P P; Grol, R P T M

    2004-01-01

    A general practice (GP) based retrospective cohort study was conducted to assess the effects of influenza vaccination on the primary care contact rate during influenza epidemics. Given the rising workload of family physicians, particularly due to ageing of the population, it is very relevant to know

  14. Effectiveness of Personal Protective Equipment and Oseltamivir Prophylaxis during Avian Influenza A (H7N7) Epidemic, the Netherlands, 2003

    OpenAIRE

    te Beest, Dennis E.; van Boven, Michiel; Bos, Marian E H; Stegeman, Arjan; Koopmans, Marion P.G.

    2010-01-01

    We analyzed the effectiveness of personal protective equipment and oseltamivir use during the 2003 avian influenza A (H7N7) epidemic in the Netherlands by linking databases containing information about farm visits, human infections, and use of oseltamivir and personal protective equipment. Using a stringent case definition, based on self-reported conjunctivitis combined with a positive hemagglutination-inhibition assay, we found that prophylactic treatment with oseltamivir significantly reduc...

  15. Reconstruction of epidemic curves for pandemic influenza A (H1N1 2009 at city and sub-city levels

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wong Ngai Sze

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract To better describe the epidemiology of influenza at local level, the time course of pandemic influenza A (H1N1 2009 in the city of Hong Kong was reconstructed from notification data after decomposition procedure and time series analysis. GIS (geographic information system methodology was incorporated for assessing spatial variation. Between May and September 2009, a total of 24415 cases were successfully geocoded, out of 25473 (95.8% reports in the original dataset. The reconstructed epidemic curve was characterized by a small initial peak, a nadir followed by rapid rise to the ultimate plateau. The full course of the epidemic had lasted for about 6 months. Despite the small geographic area of only 1000 Km2, distinctive spatial variation was observed in the configuration of the curves across 6 geographic regions. With the relatively uniform physical and climatic environment within Hong Kong, the temporo-spatial variability of influenza spread could only be explained by the heterogeneous population structure and mobility patterns. Our study illustrated how an epidemic curve could be reconstructed using regularly collected surveillance data, which would be useful in informing intervention at local levels.

  16. Influenza epidemics and incidence of schizophrenia, affective disorders and mental retardation in Western Australia: no evidence of a major effect.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morgan, V; Castle, D; Page, A; Fazio, S; Gurrin, L; Burton, P; Montgomery, P; Jablensky, A

    1997-07-25

    In-utero exposure to influenza has been implicated as a risk factor for developmental CNS damage. This study tests the hypothesis that in-utero exposure to influenza: (1) in the second gestational trimester is associated with an increased risk of schizophrenia and affective psychoses; and (2) in the first gestational trimester is associated with an increased risk of mental retardation. Analysis was confined to 1852 cases on the Western Australian psychiatric case register with ICD-9 diagnoses of schizophrenia, affective psychoses, or neurotic depression (comparison group), and 804 cases on the Intellectual Handicap Register with mental retardation that were related to 82,963 'exposed' and 32,462 'non-exposed' births between 1950 and 1960 in the total population of Western Australia. The data were examined for effects associated with six influenza epidemics in the period 1950-1960. Using relative risk ratios for individual epidemics as well as Poisson regression and a proportional hazards model to examine systematic effects for the whole period, no major effect could be identified for maternal influenza on the incidence of schizophrenia, affective psychoses and neurotic depression, despite sufficient statistical power to detect an effect. However, a possible effect was found for mental retardation in males exposed in the first and second gestational trimester. PMID:9376335

  17. Opioid Epidemic Costs U.S. $78.5 Billion Annually: CDC

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... page: https://medlineplus.gov/news/fullstory_161089.html Opioid Epidemic Costs U.S. $78.5 Billion Annually: CDC ... HealthDay News) -- Abuse of powerful prescription painkillers called opioids costs the U.S. economy $78.5 billion a ...

  18. Farm Models and Eco-Health of Poultry Production Clusters (PPCs following Avian Influenza Epidemics in Thailand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Worapol Aengwanich

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Thailand is located in Southeast Asia and is a country that was affected by highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI epidemics during 2003–2004. Nevertheless, the Thai government’s issuance policy of strict control and prevention of the disease has resulted in efficient disease control of avian influenza (AI. Poultry farmers have been both positively and negatively affected by this policy. There are three poultry cluster models worthy of attention in Thailand: (1 egg chicken poultry clusters over ponds; (2 egg chicken poultry clusters in coops raised from the ground and managed by a cooperative; and (3 poultry clusters in closed coops under contract with the private sector. Following the AI epidemics, additional poultry husbandry and biosecurity systems were developed, thereby generating income and improving the quality of life for poultry farmers. Nevertheless, raising large clusters of poultry in the same area results in disadvantages, particularly problems with both air and water pollution, depending upon the environments of each poultry model. Furthermore, the government’s policy for controlling AI during epidemics has had a negative effect on the relationship between officials and farmers, due to poultry destruction measures.

  19. Mapping antibody epitopes of the avian H5N1 influenza virus

    OpenAIRE

    Surender Khurana; Suguitan, Amorsolo L.; Yonaira Rivera; Simmons, Cameron P.; Antonio Lanzavecchia; Federica Sallusto; Jody Manischewitz; King, Lisa R.; Kanta Subbarao; Hana Golding

    2009-01-01

    Editors' Summary Background Every winter, millions of people catch influenza, a viral infection of the airways. Most recover quickly but seasonal influenza outbreaks (epidemics) kill about half a million people annually. These epidemics occur because small but frequent changes in the viral proteins (antigens) to which the human immune system responds mean that an immune response produced one year by infection or through vaccination provides only partial protection against influenza the next y...

  20. Burden of the 1999-2008 seasonal influenza epidemics in Italy: comparison with the H1N1v (A/California/07/09) pandemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lai, Piero Luigi; Panatto, Donatella; Ansaldi, Filippo; Canepa, Paola; Amicizia, Daniela; Patria, Antonio Giuseppe; Gasparini, Roberto

    2011-01-01

    Despite preventive efforts, seasonal influenza epidemics are responsible for substantial morbidity and mortality every year worldwide, including developed countries. The A/H1N1v pandemic imposed a considerable healthcare and economic burden. In order to obtain an accurate estimate of the economic burden of influenza, and hence to guide policymakers effectively, systematic studies are necessary. To this end, data from epidemiological surveillance are essential. To estimate the impact of the 1999-2008 seasonal influenza epidemics and the H1N1v pandemic, we analyzed data from the Italian Influenza Surveillance System (CIRI NET). In the period 1999-2008, the Italian surveillance network consisted of sentinel general practitioners and pediatricians, who reported cases of Influenza-Like Illness (ILI) and Acute Respiratory Infections (ARI ) observed during their clinical practice from mid-October to late April each year; reports were sent to the Center for Research on Influenza and other Viral Infections (CIRI -IV). CIRI -IV receives data from 9 of the 20 Italian regions: Liguria, Abruzzo, Calabria, Friuli Venezia Giulia, Lombardy, Puglia, Sicily, Tuscany and Umbria. Previous estimates of influenza case costs were used in economic evaluations. Clinical-epidemiological and virological surveillance of the seasonal epidemics from 1999-2008 showed that the highest epidemic period was 2004-2005, when a new variant of the H3N2 influenza virus subtype emerged (A/California/07/04). Indeed, the highest peak of morbidity in the decade occurred in February 2005 (12.6 per 1,000 inhabitants). In 1999-2008, H1N1 subtype strains circulated and co-circulated with strains belonging to the H3N2 subtype and B type. Regarding B viruses in 2001-02, viruses belonged to the B/Victoria/02/07 lineage re-emerged, and in subsequent years co-circulated with viruses belonging to the B/Yamagata/lineage. The estimated costs of seasonal epidemics from 1999-2008 in Italy ranged from €15 to €20

  1. High School Intervention for Influenza Biology and Epidemics/Pandemics: Impact on Conceptual Understanding among Adolescents

    OpenAIRE

    Dumais, Nancy; Hasni, Abdelkrim

    2009-01-01

    Understanding real-life issues such as influenza epidemiology may be of particular interest to the development of scientific knowledge and initiation of conceptual changes about viruses and their life cycles for high school students. The goal of this research project was to foster the development of adolescents' conceptual understanding of viruses and influenza biology. Thus, the project included two components: 1) pre- and posttests to determine students' conceptions about influenza biology,...

  2. Human Infection with Influenza A(H7N9) Virus during 3 Major Epidemic Waves, China, 2013–2015

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Peng; Peng, Zhibin; Fang, Vicky J.; Feng, Luzhao; Tsang, Tim K.; Jiang, Hui; Lau, Eric H.Y.; Yang, Juan; Zheng, Jiandong; Qin, Ying; Li, Zhongjie; Leung, Gabriel M.; Cowling, Benjamin J.

    2016-01-01

    Since March 2013, a novel influenza A(H7N9) virus has caused 3 epidemic waves of human infection in mainland China. We analyzed data from patients with laboratory-confirmed influenza A(H7N9) virus infection to estimate the risks for severe outcomes after hospitalization across the 3 waves. We found that hospitalized patients with confirmed infections in waves 2 and 3 were younger and more likely to be residing in small cities and rural areas than were patients in wave 1; they also had a higher risk for death, after adjustment for age and underlying medical conditions. Risk for death among hospitalized patients during waves 2 and 3 was lower in Jiangxi and Fujian Provinces than in eastern and southern provinces. The variation in risk for death among hospitalized case-patients in different areas across 3 epidemic waves might be associated with differences in case ascertainment, changes in clinical management, or virus genetic diversity. PMID:27191934

  3. Estimation of force of infection based on different epidemiological proxies: 2009/2010 Influenza epidemic in Malta.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marmara, V; Cook, A; Kleczkowski, A

    2014-12-01

    Information about infectious disease outbreaks is often gathered indirectly, from doctor's reports and health board records. It also typically underestimates the actual number of cases, but the relationship between the observed proxies and the numbers that drive the diseases is complicated, nonlinear and potentially time- and state-dependent. We use a combination of data collection from the 2009-2010 H1N1 outbreak in Malta, compartmental modelling and Bayesian inference to explore the effect of using various sources of information (consultations, doctor's diagnose, swabbing and molecular testing) on estimation of the effective basic reproduction ratio, R(t). Different proxies and different sampling rates (daily and weekly) lead to similar behaviour of R(t) as the epidemic unfolds, although individual parameters (force of infection, length of latent and infectious period) vary. We also demonstrate that the relationship between different proxies varies as epidemic progresses, with the first period characterised by high ratio of consultations and influenza diagnoses to actual confirmed cases of H1N1. This has important consequences for modelling that is based on reconstructing influenza cases from doctor's reports.

  4. Estimation of force of infection based on different epidemiological proxies: 2009/2010 Influenza epidemic in Malta

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Marmara

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Information about infectious disease outbreaks is often gathered indirectly, from doctor's reports and health board records. It also typically underestimates the actual number of cases, but the relationship between the observed proxies and the numbers that drive the diseases is complicated, nonlinear and potentially time- and state-dependent. We use a combination of data collection from the 2009–2010 H1N1 outbreak in Malta, compartmental modelling and Bayesian inference to explore the effect of using various sources of information (consultations, doctor's diagnose, swabbing and molecular testing on estimation of the effective basic reproduction ratio, Rt. Different proxies and different sampling rates (daily and weekly lead to similar behaviour of Rt as the epidemic unfolds, although individual parameters (force of infection, length of latent and infectious period vary. We also demonstrate that the relationship between different proxies varies as epidemic progresses, with the first period characterised by high ratio of consultations and influenza diagnoses to actual confirmed cases of H1N1. This has important consequences for modelling that is based on reconstructing influenza cases from doctor's reports.

  5. Influenza surveillance.

    OpenAIRE

    Ghendon, Y.

    1991-01-01

    The main objectives of influenza surveillance are: collection of influenza virus isolates and analysis of their antigenic characteristics so that the most appropriate virus variants can be recommended as constituents of influenza vaccines for use during the next epidemiological season; collection and analysis of information on influenza morbidity and mortality; and earliest possible detection of influenza epidemics. Exact estimates of the specific morbidity and mortality due to influenza are ...

  6. Influenza excess mortality from 1950-2000 in tropical Singapore.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vernon J Lee

    Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: Tropical regions have been shown to exhibit different influenza seasonal patterns compared to their temperate counterparts. However, there is little information about the burden of annual tropical influenza epidemics across time, and the relationship between tropical influenza epidemics compared with other regions. METHODS: Data on monthly national mortality and population was obtained from 1947 to 2003 in Singapore. To determine excess mortality for each month, we used a moving average analysis for each month from 1950 to 2000. From 1972, influenza viral surveillance data was available. Before 1972, information was obtained from serial annual government reports, peer-reviewed journal articles and press articles. RESULTS: The influenza pandemics of 1957 and 1968 resulted in substantial mortality. In addition, there were 20 other time points with significant excess mortality. Of the 12 periods with significant excess mortality post-1972, only one point (1988 did not correspond to a recorded influenza activity. For the 8 periods with significant excess mortality periods before 1972 excluding the pandemic years, 2 years (1951 and 1953 had newspaper reports of increased pneumonia deaths. Excess mortality could be observed in almost all periods with recorded influenza outbreaks but did not always exceed the 95% confidence limits of the baseline mortality rate. CONCLUSION: Influenza epidemics were the likely cause of most excess mortality periods in post-war tropical Singapore, although not every epidemic resulted in high mortality. It is therefore important to have good influenza surveillance systems in place to detect influenza activity.

  7. Preventable H5N1 avian influenza epidemics in the British poultry industry network exhibit characteristic scales.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jonkers, A R T; Sharkey, K J; Christley, R M

    2010-04-01

    Epidemics are frequently simulated on redundantly wired contact networks, which have many more links between sites than are minimally required to connect all. Consequently, the modelled pathogen can travel numerous alternative routes, complicating effective containment strategies. These networks have moreover been found to exhibit 'scale-free' properties and percolation, suggesting resilience to damage. However, realistic H5N1 avian influenza transmission probabilities and containment strategies, here modelled on the British poultry industry network, show that infection dynamics can additionally express characteristic scales. These system-preferred scales constitute small areas within an observed power law distribution that exhibit a lesser slope than the power law itself, indicating a slightly increased relative likelihood. These characteristic scales are here produced by a network-pervading intranet of so-called hotspot sites that propagate large epidemics below the percolation threshold. This intranet is, however, extremely vulnerable; targeted inoculation of a mere 3-6% (depending on incorporated biosecurity measures) of the British poultry industry network prevents large and moderate H5N1 outbreaks completely, offering an order of magnitude improvement over previously advocated strategies affecting the most highly connected 'hub' sites. In other words, hotspots and hubs are separate functional entities that do not necessarily coincide, and hotspots can make more effective inoculation targets. Given the ubiquity and relevance of networks (epidemics, Internet, power grids, protein interaction), recognition of this spreading regime elsewhere would suggest a similar disproportionate sensitivity to such surgical interventions. PMID:19828507

  8. Influenza B vaccine lineage selection-An optimized trivalent vaccine

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    A. Mosterín Höpping (Ana); J.M. Fonville (Judith); C.A. Russell (Colin); S.L. James (Sarah ); D.R. Smith (Derek Richard)

    2016-01-01

    textabstractEpidemics of seasonal influenza viruses cause considerable morbidity and mortality each year. Various types and subtypes of influenza circulate in humans and evolve continuously such that individuals at risk of serious complications need to be vaccinated annually to keep protection up to

  9. Performance of gross lesions at postmortem for the detection of outbreaks during the avian influenza A (H7N7) epidemic in the Netherlands in 2003

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Elbers, A.R.W.; Kamps, B.; Koch, G.

    2004-01-01

    A total of 123 submissions (on average, five birds per submission) from poultry flocks with a suspicion of an infection with highly pathogenic avian influenza virus were investigated at postmortem during the 2003 epidemic in The Netherlands. A total of 86 of these submissions were from infected floc

  10. Lessons from the epidemiological surveillance program, during the influenza A (H1N1 virus epidemic, in a reference university hospital of Southeastern Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Luiza Moretti

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: The case definition of influenza-like illness (ILI is a powerful epidemiological tool during influenza epidemics. METHODS: A prospective cohort study was conducted to evaluate the impact of two definitions used as epidemiological tools, in adults and children, during the influenza A H1N1 epidemic. Patients were included if they had upper respiratory samples tested for influenza by real-time reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction during two periods, using the ILI definition (coughing + temperature > 38ºC in period 1, and the definition of severe acute respiratory infection (ARS (coughing + temperature > 38ºC and dyspnoea in period 2. RESULTS: The study included 366 adults and 147 children, covering 243 cases of ILI and 270 cases of ARS. Laboratory confirmed cases of influenza were higher in adults (50% than in children (21.6% ( p < 0.0001 and influenza infection was more prevalent in the ILI definition (53% than ARS (24.4% (p < 0.0001. Adults reported more chills and myalgia than children (p = 0.0001. Oseltamivir was administered in 58% and 46% of adults and children with influenza A H1N1, respectively. The influenza A H1N1 case fatality rate was 7% in adults and 8.3% in children. The mean time from onset of illness until antiviral administration was 4 days. CONCLUSIONS: The modification of ILI to ARS definition resulted in less accuracy in influenza diagnosis and did not improve the appropriate time and use of antiviral medication.

  11. Influenza surveillance in Europe. Comparing intensity levels calculated using the Moving Epidemic Method.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Vega, Tomás

    2015-05-30

    Although influenza-like illnesses (ILI) and acute respiratory illnesses (ARI) surveillance are well established in Europe, the comparability of intensity among countries and seasons remains an unresolved challenge.

  12. Influenza A virus infection in zebrafish recapitulates mammalian infection and sensitivity to anti-influenza drug treatment

    OpenAIRE

    Gabor, Kristin A.; Michelle F. Goody; Mowel, Walter K; Breitbach, Meghan E.; Gratacap, Remi L.; P. Eckhard Witten; Kim, Carol H.

    2014-01-01

    Seasonal influenza virus infections cause annual epidemics and sporadic pandemics. These present a global health concern, resulting in substantial morbidity, mortality and economic burdens. Prevention and treatment of influenza illness is difficult due to the high mutation rate of the virus, the emergence of new virus strains and increasing antiviral resistance. Animal models of influenza infection are crucial to our gaining a better understanding of the pathogenesis of and host response to i...

  13. Detecting Robust Patterns in the Spread of Epidemics: A Case Study of Influenza in the United States and France

    CERN Document Server

    Crépey, Pascal

    2008-01-01

    In this paper, the authors develop a method of detecting correlations between epidemic patterns in different regions that are due to human movement and introduce a null model in which the travel-induced correlations are cancelled. They apply this method to the well-documented cases of seasonal influenza outbreaks in the United States and France. In the United States (using data for 1972-2002), the authors observed strong short-range correlations between several states and their immediate neighbors, as well as robust long-range spreading patterns resulting from large domestic air-traffic flows. The stability of these results over time allowed the authors to draw conclusions about the possible impact of travel restrictions on epidemic spread. The authors also applied this method to the case of France (1984-2004) and found that on the regional scale, there was no transportation mode that clearly dominated disease spread. The simplicity and robustness of this method suggest that it could be a useful tool for dete...

  14. High School Intervention for Influenza Biology and Epidemics/Pandemics: Impact on Conceptual Understanding among Adolescents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dumais, Nancy; Hasni, Abdelkrim

    2009-01-01

    Understanding real-life issues such as influenza epidemiology may be of particular interest to the development of scientific knowledge and initiation of conceptual changes about viruses and their life cycles for high school students. The goal of this research project was to foster the development of adolescents' conceptual understanding of viruses…

  15. Emergency Physicians’ Adherence to Center for Disease Control and Prevention Guidance During the 2009 Influenza A H1N1 Pandemic

    OpenAIRE

    Hsieh, Yu-Hsiang; Gabor D Kelen; Dugas, Andrea F.; Chen, Kuan-Fu; Rothman, Richard E.

    2013-01-01

    Introduction: Little is known regarding compliance with management guidelines for epidemic influenza in adult emergency department (ED) settings during the 2009 novel influenza A (H1N1) epidemic, especially in relation to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) guidance. Methods: We investigated all patients with a clinical diagnosis of influenza at an inner-city tertiary academic adult ED with an annual census of approximately 60,000 visits from May 2008 t...

  16. Multi-spectral fluorescent reporter influenza viruses (Color-flu) as powerful tools for in vivo studies

    OpenAIRE

    Fukuyama, Satoshi; Katsura, Hiroaki; Zhao, Dongming; Ozawa, Makoto; Ando, Tomomi; Shoemaker, Jason E.; Ishikawa, Izumi; Yamada, Shinya; Neumann, Gabriele; Watanabe, Shinji; Kitano, Hiroaki; Kawaoka, Yoshihiro

    2015-01-01

    Seasonal influenza A viruses cause annual epidemics of respiratory disease; highly pathogenic avian H5N1 and the recently emerged H7N9 viruses cause severe infections in humans, often with fatal outcomes. Although numerous studies have addressed the pathogenicity of influenza viruses, influenza pathogenesis remains incompletely understood. Here we generate influenza viruses expressing fluorescent proteins of different colours (‘Color-flu’ viruses) to facilitate the study of viral infection in...

  17. Serosurveillance study on transmission of H5N1 virus during a 2006 avian influenza epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ceyhan, M; Yildirim, I; Ferraris, O; Bouscambert-Duchamp, M; Frobert, E; Uyar, N; Tezer, H; Oner, A F; Buzgan, T; Torunoglu, M A; Ozkan, B; Yilmaz, R; Kurtoglu, M G; Laleli, Y; Badur, S; Lina, B

    2010-09-01

    In 2006 an outbreak of avian influenza A(H5N1) in Turkey caused 12 human infections, including four deaths. We conducted a serological survey to determine the extent of subclinical infection caused by the outbreak. Single serum samples were collected from five individuals with avian influenza whose nasopharyngeal swabs tested positive for H5 RNA by polymerase chain reaction, 28 family contacts of the cases, 95 poultry cullers, 75 individuals known to have had contact with diseased chickens and 81 individuals living in the region with no known contact with infected chickens and/or patients. Paired serum samples were collected from 97 healthcare workers. All sera were tested for the presence of neutralizing antibodies by enzyme-linked immunoassay, haemagglutination inhibition and microneutralization assays. Only one serum sample, from a parent of an avian influenza patient, tested positive for H5N1 by microneutralization assay. This survey shows that there was minimal subclinical H5N1 infection among contacts of human cases and infected poultry in Turkey in 2006. Further, the low rate of subclinical infection following contact with diseased poultry gave further support to the reported low infectivity of the virus.

  18. “There Wasn't a Lot of Comforts in Those Days:” African Americans, Public Health, and the 1918 Influenza Epidemic

    OpenAIRE

    Gamble, Vanessa Northington

    2010-01-01

    When the 1918 influenza epidemic began, African American communities were already beset by many public health, medical, and social problems, including racist theories of black biological inferiority, racial barriers in medicine and public health, and poor health status. To address these problems, African Americans mounted efforts such as establishing separate hospitals and professional organizations and repudiating racist scientific theories. Contradicting prevailing theories about African Am...

  19. Real-time epidemic monitoring and forecasting of H1N1-2009 using influenza-like illness from general practice and family doctor clinics in Singapore.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jimmy Boon Som Ong

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Reporting of influenza-like illness (ILI from general practice/family doctor (GPFD clinics is an accurate indicator of real-time epidemic activity and requires little effort to set up, making it suitable for developing countries currently experiencing the influenza A (H1N1-2009 pandemic or preparing for subsequent epidemic waves. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We established a network of GPFDs in Singapore. Participating GPFDs submitted returns via facsimile or e-mail on their work days using a simple, standard data collection format, capturing: gender; year of birth; "ethnicity"; residential status; body temperature (degrees C; and treatment (antiviral or not; for all cases with a clinical diagnosis of an acute respiratory illness (ARI. The operational definition of ILI in this study was an ARI with fever of 37.8 degrees C or more. The data were processed daily by the study co-ordinator and fed into a stochastic model of disease dynamics, which was refitted daily using particle filtering, with data and forecasts uploaded to a website which could be publicly accessed. Twenty-three GPFD clinics agreed to participate. Data collection started on 2009-06-26 and lasted for the duration of the epidemic. The epidemic appeared to have peaked around 2009-08-03 and the ILI rates had returned to baseline levels by the time of writing. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: This real-time surveillance system is able to show the progress of an epidemic and indicates when the peak is reached. The resulting information can be used to form forecasts, including how soon the epidemic wave will end and when a second wave will appear if at all.

  20. Factors influencing psychological distress during a disease epidemic: Data from Australia's first outbreak of equine influenza

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stevens Garry J

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In 2007 Australia experienced its first outbreak of highly infectious equine influenza. Government disease control measures were put in place to control, contain, and eradicate the disease; these measures included movement restrictions and quarantining of properties. This study was conducted to assess the psycho-social impacts of this disease, and this paper reports the prevalence of, and factors influencing, psychological distress during this outbreak. Methods Data were collected using an online survey, with a link directed to the affected population via a number of industry groups. Psychological distress, as determined by the Kessler 10 Psychological Distress Scale, was the main outcome measure. Results In total, 2760 people participated in this study. Extremely high levels of non-specific psychological distress were reported by respondents in this study, with 34% reporting high psychological distress (K10 > 22, compared to levels of around 12% in the Australian general population. Analysis, using backward stepwise binary logistic regression analysis, revealed that those living in high risk infection (red zones (OR = 2.00; 95% CI: 1.57–2.55; p Conclusion Although, methodologically, this study had good internal validity, it has limited generalisability because it was not possible to identify, bound, or sample the target population accurately. However, this study is the first to collect psychological distress data from an affected population during such a disease outbreak and has potential to inform those involved in assessing the potential psychological impacts of human infectious diseases, such as pandemic influenza.

  1. European Influenza Surveillance Scheme: annual report 2005-2006 influenza season.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    2007-01-01

    EISS is de organisatie die voor de EU en de WHO de verspreiding van influenza in Europa in de gaten houdt, mede met het oog op een mogelijke pandemie. Aan het EISS-netwerk deden tijdens het griepseizoen 2005-2006 25.000 peilstationartsen uit 29 landen mee. EISS bestrijkt een gebied met 489 miljoen i

  2. ATTEMPTING TO PREDICT THE FATE OF AN ONGOING EPIDEMIC. LESSONS FROM A(H1N1 INFLUENZA IN USA.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miguel Martín Martínez

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available An attempt is made to estimate the main parameters of the 2009 Influenza type A(H1N1 outburst in USA based on public information provided by Centers for Disease Control (CDC during the early stage of the epidemic. Given the ill-posed nature of the statistical problem, a nonlinear fuction estimation method (Gauss-Newton and Hooke Jeeves was combined with linearization procedures that allowed to set adequate initial guess values for estimation. Based on data until May 13th, 2009, the following values are predicted for the USA outbreak: Tau (time to the peak of incidence 32 days; R0 (number of secondary infections per infected individual 1.7; K (total number of cases 20000(15000-35000. These results are in good agreement with the values reported by the WHO's Rapid Assessment Team for the outburst in Mexico. The method can be applied in any setting where cumulative number of cases are properly recorded.

  3. Annual influenza vaccination: coverage and attitudes of primary care staff in Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ward, Kirsten; Seale, Holly; Zwar, Nicholas; Leask, Julie; MacIntyre, C. Raina

    2010-01-01

    Please cite this paper as: Ward et al. (2011) Annual influenza vaccination: coverage and attitudes of primary care staff in Australia. Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses 5(2), 135–141. Background  Annual influenza vaccination is recommended for all Australian health care workers (HCWs) including those working in primary health care. There is limited published data on coverage, workplace provision, attitudes and personal barriers to influenza vaccination amongst primary health care staff. The aim of this study was to contribute to the limited literature base in this important area by investigating these issues in the primary health care setting in New South Wales (NSW), Australia. Methods  A postal survey was sent to general practitioners (GPs) and practice nurses (PNs) from inner city, semi‐urban and rural areas of NSW, Australia. There were 139 responses in total (response rate 36%) from 79 GPs (response rate 30%) and 60 PNs (response rate 46%). Results  Reported influenza vaccination coverage in both 2007 and 2008 was greater than 70%, with GPs reporting higher coverage than PNs in both years. The main barriers identified were lack of awareness of vaccination recommendations for general practice staff and concern about adverse effects from the vaccine. Conclusions  Rates of influenza vaccination coverage reported in this study were higher than in previous studies of hospital and institutional HCWs, though it is possible that the study design may have contributed to these higher results. Nevertheless, these findings highlight that more needs to be done to understand barriers to vaccination in this group, to inform the development of appropriate strategies to increase vaccination coverage in primary health care staff, with a special focus on PNs. PMID:21306577

  4. Alternative Live-Attenuated Influenza Vaccines Based on Modifications in the Polymerase Genes Protect against Epidemic and Pandemic Flu▿

    OpenAIRE

    Solórzano, Alicia; Ye, Jianqiang; Pérez, Daniel R.

    2010-01-01

    Human influenza is a seasonal disease associated with significant morbidity and mortality. Influenza vaccination is the most effective means for disease prevention. We have previously shown that mutations in the PB1 and PB2 genes of the live-attenuated influenza vaccine (LAIV) from the cold-adapted (ca) influenza virus A/Ann Arbor/6/60 (H2N2) could be transferred to avian influenza viruses and produce partially attenuated viruses. We also demonstrated that avian influenza viruses carrying the...

  5. Prediction of influenza B vaccine effectiveness from sequence data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pan, Yidan; Deem, Michael W

    2016-08-31

    Influenza is a contagious respiratory illness that causes significant human morbidity and mortality, affecting 5-15% of the population in a typical epidemic season. Human influenza epidemics are caused by types A and B, with roughly 25% of human cases due to influenza B. Influenza B is a single-stranded RNA virus with a high mutation rate, and both prior immune history and vaccination put significant pressure on the virus to evolve. Due to the high rate of viral evolution, the influenza B vaccine component of the annual influenza vaccine is updated, roughly every other year in recent years. To predict when an update to the vaccine is needed, an estimate of expected vaccine effectiveness against a range of viral strains is required. We here introduce a method to measure antigenic distance between the influenza B vaccine and circulating viral strains. The measure correlates well with effectiveness of the influenza B component of the annual vaccine in humans between 1979 and 2014. We discuss how this measure of antigenic distance may be used in the context of annual influenza vaccine design and prediction of vaccine effectiveness. PMID:27473305

  6. Passive immune neutralization strategies for prevention and control of influenza A infections

    OpenAIRE

    Ye, Jianqiang; Shao, Hongxia; Daniel R Perez

    2012-01-01

    Although vaccination significantly reduces influenza severity, seasonal human influenza epidemics still cause more than 250,000 deaths annually. Vaccine efficacy is limited in high-risk populations such as infants, the elderly and immunosuppressed individuals. In the event of an influenza pandemic (such as the 2009 H1N1 pandemic), a significant delay in vaccine availability represents a significant public health concern, particularly in high-risk groups. The increasing emergence of strains re...

  7. Molecular epidemiology of A/H3N2 and A/H1N1 influenza virus during a single epidemic season in the United States.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martha I Nelson

    Full Text Available To determine the spatial and temporal dynamics of influenza A virus during a single epidemic, we examined whole-genome sequences of 284 A/H1N1 and 69 A/H3N2 viruses collected across the continental United States during the 2006-2007 influenza season, representing the largest study of its kind undertaken to date. A phylogenetic analysis revealed that multiple clades of both A/H1N1 and A/H3N2 entered and co-circulated in the United States during this season, even in localities that are distant from major metropolitan areas, and with no clear pattern of spatial spread. In addition, co-circulating clades of the same subtype exchanged genome segments through reassortment, producing both a minor clade of A/H3N2 viruses that appears to have re-acquired sensitivity to the adamantane class of antiviral drugs, as well as a likely antigenically distinct A/H1N1 clade that became globally dominant following this season. Overall, the co-circulation of multiple viral clades during the 2006-2007 epidemic season revealed patterns of spatial spread that are far more complex than observed previously, and suggests a major role for both migration and reassortment in shaping the epidemiological dynamics of human influenza A virus.

  8. Improving risk models for avian influenza: the role of intensive poultry farming and flooded land during the 2004 Thailand epidemic.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas P Van Boeckel

    Full Text Available Since 1996 when Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza type H5N1 first emerged in southern China, numerous studies sought risk factors and produced risk maps based on environmental and anthropogenic predictors. However little attention has been paid to the link between the level of intensification of poultry production and the risk of outbreak. This study revised H5N1 risk mapping in Central and Western Thailand during the second wave of the 2004 epidemic. Production structure was quantified using a disaggregation methodology based on the number of poultry per holding. Population densities of extensively- and intensively-raised ducks and chickens were derived both at the sub-district and at the village levels. LandSat images were used to derive another previously neglected potential predictor of HPAI H5N1 risk: the proportion of water in the landscape resulting from floods. We used Monte Carlo simulation of Boosted Regression Trees models of predictor variables to characterize the risk of HPAI H5N1. Maps of mean risk and uncertainty were derived both at the sub-district and the village levels. The overall accuracy of Boosted Regression Trees models was comparable to that of logistic regression approaches. The proportion of area flooded made the highest contribution to predicting the risk of outbreak, followed by the densities of intensively-raised ducks, extensively-raised ducks and human population. Our results showed that as little as 15% of flooded land in villages is sufficient to reach the maximum level of risk associated with this variable. The spatial pattern of predicted risk is similar to previous work: areas at risk are mainly located along the flood plain of the Chao Phraya river and to the south-east of Bangkok. Using high-resolution village-level poultry census data, rather than sub-district data, the spatial accuracy of predictions was enhanced to highlight local variations in risk. Such maps provide useful information to guide

  9. Bayesian Inference Reveals Host-Specific Contributions to the Epidemic Expansion of Influenza A H5N1.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trovão, Nídia Sequeira; Suchard, Marc A; Baele, Guy; Gilbert, Marius; Lemey, Philippe

    2015-12-01

    Since its first isolation in 1996 in Guangdong, China, the highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIV) H5N1 has circulated in avian hosts for almost two decades and spread to more than 60 countries worldwide. The role of different avian hosts and the domestic-wild bird interface has been critical in shaping the complex HPAIV H5N1 disease ecology, but remains difficult to ascertain. To shed light on the large-scale H5N1 transmission patterns and disentangle the contributions of different avian hosts on the tempo and mode of HPAIV H5N1 dispersal, we apply Bayesian evolutionary inference techniques to comprehensive sets of hemagglutinin and neuraminidase gene sequences sampled between 1996 and 2011 throughout Asia and Russia. Our analyses demonstrate that the large-scale H5N1 transmission dynamics are structured according to different avian flyways, and that the incursion of the Central Asian flyway specifically was driven by Anatidae hosts coinciding with rapid rate of spread and an epidemic wavefront acceleration. This also resulted in long-distance dispersal that is likely to be explained by wild bird migration. We identify a significant degree of asymmetry in the large-scale transmission dynamics between Anatidae and Phasianidae, with the latter largely representing poultry as an evolutionary sink. A joint analysis of host dynamics and continuous spatial diffusion demonstrates that the rate of viral dispersal and host diffusivity is significantly higher for Anatidae compared with Phasianidae. These findings complement risk modeling studies and satellite tracking of wild birds in demonstrating a continental-scale structuring into areas of H5N1 persistence that are connected through migratory waterfowl.

  10. Universal Influenza Vaccines, a Dream to Be Realized Soon

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Han Zhang

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Due to frequent viral antigenic change, current influenza vaccines need to be re-formulated annually to match the circulating strains for battling seasonal influenza epidemics. These vaccines are also ineffective in preventing occasional outbreaks of new influenza pandemic viruses. All these challenges call for the development of universal influenza vaccines capable of conferring broad cross-protection against multiple subtypes of influenza A viruses. Facilitated by the advancement in modern molecular biology, delicate antigen design becomes one of the most effective factors for fulfilling such goals. Conserved epitopes residing in virus surface proteins including influenza matrix protein 2 and the stalk domain of the hemagglutinin draw general interest for improved antigen design. The present review summarizes the recent progress in such endeavors and also covers the encouraging progress in integrated antigen/adjuvant delivery and controlled release technology that facilitate the development of an affordable universal influenza vaccine.

  11. Emergence of truncated PB1-F2 protein of H3N2 influenza virus during its epidemic period in Jiangsu Province, China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Wei Pingmin; Luo Pengfei; Li wei; Zi Hairong; Qi Xian; Deng Fei; Qin Yuanfang

    2014-01-01

    Background PB1-F2 protein has been proven to increase the pathogenicity of influenza A virus (IAV) strains in primary infection and in secondary bacterial infection.It can also regulate the activity of viral polymerase.However,it was shown in another retrospective study that a portion of IAVs do not express full-length PB1-F2 protein during virus development; different kinds of stop codons cause exits in the open reading frames and form PB1-F2 gene products with the corresponding genotypes.Truncated PB1-F2 in human H3N2 IAVs has long been detected in North America but its evolution in China is still unclear.Methods Influenza-like illnesses (ILls) from the whole of Jiangsu Province were collected and inspected to determine the type and subtype of the viruses.A portion of isolates collected in the epidemic period were selected as samples for later whole-genome sequencing,and the exact sequences were determined and analyzed.Results H3N2 influenza virus was one of the epidemical strains which had been prevalent during 2009-2010,in Jiangsu.Five H3N2 isolates with truncated PB1-F2 protein (25aa) were detected in influenza samples from Nanjing and Xuzhou,while seven similar H3N2 isolates were also reported in Niigata,Japan.Conclusion This emergence indicates the possibility that there has been transmission of the H3N2 virus between the two countries.

  12. FluDetWeb: an interactive web-based system for the early detection of the onset of influenza epidemics

    OpenAIRE

    Conesa, David; López-Quílez, Antonio; Martínez-Beneito, Miguel Ángel; Miralles, María Teresa; Verdejo, Francisco

    2009-01-01

    Background The early identification of influenza outbreaks has became a priority in public health practice. A large variety of statistical algorithms for the automated monitoring of influenza surveillance have been proposed, but most of them require not only a lot of computational effort but also operation of sometimes not-so-friendly software. Results In this paper, we introduce FluDetWeb, an implementation of a prospective influenza surveillance methodology based on a client-server architec...

  13. Effectiveness of A(H1N1)pdm09 influenza vaccine in adults recommended for annual influenza vaccination.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gefenaite, G.; Tacken, M.; Bos, J.; Stirbu-Wagner, I.; Korevaar, J.C.; Stolk, R.P.; Wolters, B.; Bijl, M.; Postma, M.J.; Wilschut, J.; Nichol, K.L.; Hak, E.

    2013-01-01

    Introduction: Because of variability in published A(H1N1)pdm09 influenza vaccine effectiveness estimates, we conducted a study in the adults belonging to the risk groups to assess the A(H1N1)pdm09 MF59-adjuvanted influenza vaccine effectiveness. Methods: VE against influenza and/or pneumonia was ass

  14. Effectiveness of A(H1N1)pdm09 influenza vaccine in adults recommended for annual influenza vaccination

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gefenaite, Giedre; Tacken, Margot; Bos, Jens; Stirbu-Wagner, Irina; Korevaar, Joke C.; Stolk, Ronald P.; Wolters, Bert; Bijl, Marc; Postma, Maarten J.; Wilschut, Jan; Nichol, Kristin L.; Hak, Eelko

    2013-01-01

    INTRODUCTION: Because of variability in published A(H1N1)pdm09 influenza vaccine effectiveness estimates, we conducted a study in the adults belonging to the risk groups to assess the A(H1N1)pdm09 MF59-adjuvanted influenza vaccine effectiveness. METHODS: VE against influenza and/or pneumonia was ass

  15. Evaluation of epidemic intelligence systems integrated in the early alerting and reporting project for the detection of A/H5N1 influenza events.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Philippe Barboza

    Full Text Available The objective of Web-based expert epidemic intelligence systems is to detect health threats. The Global Health Security Initiative (GHSI Early Alerting and Reporting (EAR project was launched to assess the feasibility and opportunity for pooling epidemic intelligence data from seven expert systems. EAR participants completed a qualitative survey to document epidemic intelligence strategies and to assess perceptions regarding the systems performance. Timeliness and sensitivity were rated highly illustrating the value of the systems for epidemic intelligence. Weaknesses identified included representativeness, completeness and flexibility. These findings were corroborated by the quantitative analysis performed on signals potentially related to influenza A/H5N1 events occurring in March 2010. For the six systems for which this information was available, the detection rate ranged from 31% to 38%, and increased to 72% when considering the virtual combined system. The effective positive predictive values ranged from 3% to 24% and F1-scores ranged from 6% to 27%. System sensitivity ranged from 38% to 72%. An average difference of 23% was observed between the sensitivities calculated for human cases and epizootics, underlining the difficulties in developing an efficient algorithm for a single pathology. However, the sensitivity increased to 93% when the virtual combined system was considered, clearly illustrating complementarities between individual systems. The average delay between the detection of A/H5N1 events by the systems and their official reporting by WHO or OIE was 10.2 days (95% CI: 6.7-13.8. This work illustrates the diversity in implemented epidemic intelligence activities, differences in system's designs, and the potential added values and opportunities for synergy between systems, between users and between systems and users.

  16. Individual Vaccination as Nash Equilibrium in a SIR Model with Application to the 2009-2010 Influenza A (H1N1) Epidemic in France.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laguzet, Laetitia; Turinici, Gabriel

    2015-10-01

    The vaccination against ongoing epidemics is seldom compulsory but remains one of the most classical means to fight epidemic propagation. However, recent debates concerning the innocuity of vaccines and their risk with respect to the risk of the epidemic itself lead to severe vaccination campaign failures, and new mass behaviors appeared driven by individual self-interest. Prompted by this context, we analyze, in a Susceptible-Infected-Recovered model, whether egocentric individuals can reach an equilibrium with the rest of the society. Using techniques from the "Mean Field Games" theory, we extend previous results and show that an equilibrium exists and characterizes completely the individual best vaccination strategy (with or without discounting). We also compare with a strategy based only on overall societal optimization and exhibit a situation with nonnegative price of anarchy. Finally, we apply the theory to the 2009-2010 Influenza A (H1N1) vaccination campaign in France and hint that a group of individuals stopped vaccinating at levels that indicated a pessimistic perception of the risk of the vaccine. PMID:26443437

  17. Individual Vaccination as Nash Equilibrium in a SIR Model with Application to the 2009-2010 Influenza A (H1N1) Epidemic in France.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laguzet, Laetitia; Turinici, Gabriel

    2015-10-01

    The vaccination against ongoing epidemics is seldom compulsory but remains one of the most classical means to fight epidemic propagation. However, recent debates concerning the innocuity of vaccines and their risk with respect to the risk of the epidemic itself lead to severe vaccination campaign failures, and new mass behaviors appeared driven by individual self-interest. Prompted by this context, we analyze, in a Susceptible-Infected-Recovered model, whether egocentric individuals can reach an equilibrium with the rest of the society. Using techniques from the "Mean Field Games" theory, we extend previous results and show that an equilibrium exists and characterizes completely the individual best vaccination strategy (with or without discounting). We also compare with a strategy based only on overall societal optimization and exhibit a situation with nonnegative price of anarchy. Finally, we apply the theory to the 2009-2010 Influenza A (H1N1) vaccination campaign in France and hint that a group of individuals stopped vaccinating at levels that indicated a pessimistic perception of the risk of the vaccine.

  18. Analysis of Etiology of Influenza during Influenza A (H1N1) Epidemic in Zhuhai City%甲型H1N1流感流行期间珠海市流感病原学分析

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    徐郁; 周勇; 周伴群; 焦亮; 谭爱军; 李德云

    2012-01-01

    was a linear positive relationship between the numbers of influenza cases and ILI cases. The multiple correlation coefficient was 0.64 (P<0.05). Conclusions Influenza epidemic intensity in Zhuhai City was higher than the average level in Guangdong province. Young people are the main population with influenza infection.

  19. Effects of closing and reopening live poultry markets on the epidemic of human infection with avian influenza A virus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Jian; Liu, Wendong; Xia, Rui; Dai, Qigang; Bao, Changjun; Tang, Fenyang; Zhu, yefei; Wang, Qiao

    2016-01-01

    Abstract Live poultry markets (LPMs) are crucial places for human infection of influenza A (H7N9 virus). In Yangtze River Delta, LPMs were closed after the outbreak of human infection with avian influenza A (H7N9) virus, and then reopened when no case was found. Our purpose was to quantify the effect of LPMs’ operations in this region on the transmission of influenza A (H7N9) virus. We obtained information about dates of symptom onset and locations for all human influenza A (H7N9) cases reported from Shanghai, Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces by May 31, 2014, and acquired dates of closures and reopening of LPMs from official media. A two-phase Bayesian model was fitted by Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods to process the spatial and temporal influence of human cases. A total of 235 cases of influenza A (H7N9) were confirmed in Shanghai, Jiangsu and Zhejiang by May 31, 2014. Using these data, our analysis showed that, after LPM closures, the influenza A (H7N9) outbreak disappeared within two weeks in Shanghai, one week in Jiangsu, and one week in Zhejiang, respectively. Local authorities reopened LPMs when there was no outbreak of influenza A (H7N9), which did not lead to reemergence of human influenza A (H7N9). LPM closures were effective in controlling the H7N9 outbreak. Reopening of LPM in summer did not increase the risk of human infection with H7N9. Our findings showed that LPMs should be closed immediately in areas where the H7N9 virus is confirmed in LPM. When there is no outbreak of H7N9 virus, LPMs can be reopened to satisfy the Chinese traditional culture of buying live poultry. In the long term, local authorities should take a cautious attitude in permanent LPM closure.

  20. Influenza

    OpenAIRE

    Forleo-Neto Eduardo; Halker Elisa; Santos Verônica Jorge; Paiva Terezinha Maria; Toniolo-Neto João

    2003-01-01

    A influenza (gripe) é doença infecciosa aguda de origem viral que acomete o trato respiratório e a cada inverno atinge mais de 100 milhões de pessoas na Europa, Japão e Estados Unidos, causando anualmente a morte de cerca de 20 a 40 mil pessoas somente neste último país. O agente etiológico é o Myxovirus influenzae, ou vírus da gripe. Este subdivide-se nos tipos A, B e C, sendo que apenas os do tipo A e B apresentam relevância clínica em humanos. O vírus influenza apresenta altas taxas de mut...

  1. Clinical and socioeconomic impact of seasonal and pandemic influenza in adults and the elderly.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gasparini, Roberto; Amicizia, Daniela; Lai, Piero Luigi; Panatto, Donatella

    2012-01-01

    Influenza epidemics and pandemics carry a heavy socioeconomic burden. Hospitalization and treatment are more often necessary in high-risk patients, such as the elderly. However, the impact of influenza is not negligible even in adults, mainly because of lost productivity. The World Health Organization estimates that seasonal influenza causes 250,000-500,000 deaths worldwide each year; however, mortality may be very high in pandemic periods. Many estimates of the costs of seasonal influenza have been made in various socioeconomic contexts. For instance, among the adult population in Italy, a cost of €940.39 per case has been estimated. In the US, the average annual influenza burden in 18-49-y-old adults without underlying medical conditions is judged to include approximately 32,000 hospitalizations and 680 deaths. Estimating the influenza burden is a useful aid to determining the best influenza vaccination strategy and preventive and clinical treatments.

  2. Evaluation of clinical features scoring system as screening tool for influenza A (H1N1 in epidemic situations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P Ranjan

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Influenza A (H1N1 hit the headlines in recent times and created mass hysteria and general panic. The high cost and non-availability of diagnostic laboratory tests for swine flu, especially in the developing countries underlines the need of having a cheaper, easily available, yet reasonably accurate screening test. Aims: This study was carried out to develop a clinical feature-based scoring system (CFSS for influenza A (H1N1 and to evaluate its suitability as a screening tool when large numbers of influenza-like illness cases are suspect. Settings and Design: Clinical-record based study, carried out retrospectively in post-pandemic period on subject′s case-sheets who had been quarantined at IG International Airport′s quarantine center at Delhi. Materials and Methods: Clinical scoring of each suspected case was done by studying their case record sheet and compared with the results of RT-PCR. RT-PCR was used to confirm the diagnosis (Gold Standard. Statistical Analysis: We calculated sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values of the clinical feature-based scoring system (the proposed new screening tool at different cut-off values. The most discriminant cut-off value was determined by plotting the ROC curve. Results: Of the 638 suspected cases, 127 (20% were confirmed to have H1N1 by RT-PCR examination. On the basis of ROC, the most discriminant clinical feature score for diagnosing Influenza A was found to be 7, which yielded sensitivity, specificity, positive, and negative predictive values of 86%, 88%, 64%, and 96%, respectively. Conclusion: The clinical features scoring system (CFSS can be used as a valid and cost-effective tool for screening swine flu (influenza A (H1N1 cases from large number of influenza-like illness suspects.

  3. Clarithromycin Resistance Mechanisms of Epidemic β-Lactamase-Nonproducing Ampicillin-Resistant Haemophilus influenzae Strains in Japan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seyama, Shoji; Wajima, Takeaki; Nakaminami, Hidemasa; Noguchi, Norihisa

    2016-05-01

    The aim of this study was to clarify the clarithromycin resistance mechanisms of β-lactamase-nonproducing ampicillin-resistant Haemophilus influenzae strains. In all clarithromycin-resistant strains, the transcript level of acrB was significantly elevated, and these strains had a frameshift mutation in acrR Introduction of the acrR mutation into H. influenzae Rd generated a clarithromycin-resistant transformant with the same MIC as the donor strain. Our results indicate that the acrR mutation confers clarithromycin resistance by the increasing the transcription of acrB.

  4. Delayed norovirus epidemic in the 2009-2010 season in Japan: potential relationship with intensive hand sanitizer use for pandemic influenza.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Inaida, S; Shobugawa, Y; Matsuno, S; Saito, R; Suzuki, H

    2016-09-01

    Norovirus (NoV) epidemics normally peak in December in Japan; however, the peak in the 2009-2010 season was delayed until the fourth week of January 2010. We suspected intensive hand hygiene that was conducted for a previous pandemic influenza in 2009 as the cause of this delay. We analysed the NoV epidemic trend, based on national surveillance data, and its associations with monthly output data for hand hygiene products, including alcohol-based skin antiseptics and hand soap. The delayed peak in the NoV incidence in the 2009-2010 season had the lowest number of recorded cases of the five seasons studied (2006-2007 to 2010-2011). GII.4 was the most commonly occurring genotype. The monthly relative risk of NoV and monthly output of both alcohol-based skin antiseptics and hand soap were significantly and negatively correlated. Our findings suggest an association between hand hygiene using these products and prevention of NoV transmission. PMID:27301793

  5. Pros and cons of estimating the reproduction number from early epidemic growth rate of influenza A (H1N1 2009

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chowell Gerardo

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In many parts of the world, the exponential growth rate of infections during the initial epidemic phase has been used to make statistical inferences on the reproduction number, R, a summary measure of the transmission potential for the novel influenza A (H1N1 2009. The growth rate at the initial stage of the epidemic in Japan led to estimates for R in the range 2.0 to 2.6, capturing the intensity of the initial outbreak among school-age children in May 2009. Methods An updated estimate of R that takes into account the epidemic data from 29 May to 14 July is provided. An age-structured renewal process is employed to capture the age-dependent transmission dynamics, jointly estimating the reproduction number, the age-dependent susceptibility and the relative contribution of imported cases to secondary transmission. Pitfalls in estimating epidemic growth rates are identified and used for scrutinizing and re-assessing the results of our earlier estimate of R. Results Maximum likelihood estimates of R using the data from 29 May to 14 July ranged from 1.21 to 1.35. The next-generation matrix, based on our age-structured model, predicts that only 17.5% of the population will experience infection by the end of the first pandemic wave. Our earlier estimate of R did not fully capture the population-wide epidemic in quantifying the next-generation matrix from the estimated growth rate during the initial stage of the pandemic in Japan. Conclusions In order to quantify R from the growth rate of cases, it is essential that the selected model captures the underlying transmission dynamics embedded in the data. Exploring additional epidemiological information will be useful for assessing the temporal dynamics. Although the simple concept of R is more easily grasped by the general public than that of the next-generation matrix, the matrix incorporating detailed information (e.g., age-specificity is essential for reducing the levels of

  6. Transmission of influenza reflects seasonality of wild birds across the annual cycle.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hill, Nichola J; Ma, Eric J; Meixell, Brandt W; Lindberg, Mark S; Boyce, Walter M; Runstadler, Jonathan A

    2016-08-01

    Influenza A Viruses (IAV) in nature must overcome shifting transmission barriers caused by the mobility of their primary host, migratory wild birds, that change throughout the annual cycle. Using a phylogenetic network of viral sequences from North American wild birds (2008-2011) we demonstrate a shift from intraspecific to interspecific transmission that along with reassortment, allows IAV to achieve viral flow across successive seasons from summer to winter. Our study supports amplification of IAV during summer breeding seeded by overwintering virus persisting locally and virus introduced from a wide range of latitudes. As birds migrate from breeding sites to lower latitudes, they become involved in transmission networks with greater connectivity to other bird species, with interspecies transmission of reassortant viruses peaking during the winter. We propose that switching transmission dynamics may be a critical strategy for pathogens that infect mobile hosts inhabiting regions with strong seasonality. PMID:27324078

  7. Pandemic influenza: certain uncertainties

    OpenAIRE

    Morens, David M.; Taubenberger, Jeffery K.

    2011-01-01

    For at least five centuries, major epidemics and pandemics of influenza have occurred unexpectedly and at irregular intervals. Despite the modern notion that pandemic influenza is a distinct phenomenon obeying such constant (if incompletely understood) rules such as dramatic genetic change, cyclicity, “wave” patterning, virus replacement, and predictable epidemic behavior, much evidence suggests the opposite. Although there is much that we know about pandemic influenza, there appears to be mu...

  8. Non-periodic outbreaks of recurrent epidemics and its network modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Muhua; Wang, Chaoqing; Zhou, Jie; Zhao, Ming; Guan, Shuguang; Zou, Yong; Liu, Zonghua

    2015-11-01

    The study of recurrent epidemic outbreaks has been attracting great attention for decades, but its underlying mechanism is still under debate. Based on a large number of real data from different cities, we find that besides the seasonal periodic outbreaks of influenza, there are also non-periodic outbreaks, i.e. non-seasonal or non-annual behaviors. To understand how the non-periodicity shows up, we present a network model of SIRS epidemic with both time-dependent infection rate and a small possibility of persistent epidemic seeds, representing the influences from the larger annual variation of environment and the infection generated spontaneously in nature, respectively. Our numerical simulations reveal that the model can reproduce the non-periodic outbreaks of recurrent epidemics with the main features of real influenza data. Further, we find that the recurrent outbreaks of epidemic depend not only on the infection rate but also on the density of susceptible agents, indicating that they are both the necessary conditions for the recurrent epidemic patterns with non-periodicity. A theoretical analysis based on Markov dynamics is presented to explain the numerical results. This finding may be of significance to the control of recurrent epidemics.

  9. Rapid spread of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses with a new set of specific mutations in the internal genes in the beginning of 2015/2016 epidemic season in Moscow and Saint Petersburg (Russian Federation).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Komissarov, Andrey; Fadeev, Artem; Sergeeva, Maria; Petrov, Sergey; Sintsova, Kseniya; Egorova, Anna; Pisareva, Maria; Buzitskaya, Zhanna; Musaeva, Tamila; Danilenko, Daria; Konovalova, Nadezhda; Petrova, Polina; Stolyarov, Kirill; Smorodintseva, Elizaveta; Burtseva, Elena; Krasnoslobodtsev, Kirill; Kirillova, Elena; Karpova, Lyudmila; Eropkin, Mikhail; Sominina, Anna; Grudinin, Mikhail

    2016-07-01

    A dramatic increase of influenza activity in Russia since week 3 of 2016 significantly differs from previous seasons in terms of the incidence of influenza and acute respiratory infection (ARI) and in number of lethal cases. We performed antigenic analysis of 108 and whole-genome sequencing of 77 influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses from Moscow and Saint Petersburg. Most of the viruses were antigenically related to the vaccine strain. Whole-genome analysis revealed a composition of specific mutations in the internal genes (D2E and M83I in NEP, E125D in NS1, M105T in NP, Q208K in M1, and N204S in PA-X) that probably emerged before the beginning of 2015/2016 epidemic season. PMID:26992820

  10. No serological evidence that harbour porpoises are additional hosts of influenza B viruses.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rogier Bodewes

    Full Text Available Influenza A and B viruses circulate among humans causing epidemics almost annually. While various hosts for influenza A viruses exist, influenza B viruses have been detected only in humans and seals. However, recurrent infections of seals in Dutch coastal waters with influenza B viruses that are antigenetically distinct from influenza B viruses circulating among humans suggest that influenza B viruses have been introduced into this seal population by another, non-human, host. Harbour porpoises (Phocoena phocoena are sympatric with seals in these waters and are also occasionally in close contact with humans after stranding and subsequent rehabilitation. In addition, virus attachment studies demonstrated that influenza B viruses can bind to cells of the respiratory tract of these animals. Therefore, we hypothesized that harbour porpoises might be a reservoir of influenza B viruses. In the present study, an unique set of serum samples from 79 harbour porpoises, stranded alive on the Dutch coast between 2003 and 2013, was tested for the presence of antibodies against influenza B viruses by use of the hemagglutination inhibition test and for antibodies against influenza A viruses by use of a competitive influenza A nucleoprotein ELISA. No antibodies were detected against either virus, suggesting that influenza A and B virus infections of harbour porpoises in Dutch coastal waters are not common, which was supported by statistical analysis of the dataset.

  11. Harmonizing influenza primary-care surveillance in the United Kingdom: piloting two methods to assess the timing and intensity of the seasonal epidemic across several general practice-based surveillance schemes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Green, H K; Charlett, A; Moran-Gilad, J; Fleming, D; Durnall, H; Thomas, D Rh; Cottrell, S; Smyth, B; Kearns, C; Reynolds, A J; Smith, G E; Elliot, A J; Ellis, J; Zambon, M; Watson, J M; McMenamin, J; Pebody, R G

    2015-01-01

    General Practitioner consultation rates for influenza-like illness (ILI) are monitored through several geographically distinct schemes in the UK, providing early warning to government and health services of community circulation and intensity of activity each winter. Following on from the 2009 pandemic, there has been a harmonization initiative to allow comparison across the distinct existing surveillance schemes each season. The moving epidemic method (MEM), proposed by the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control for standardizing reporting of ILI rates, was piloted in 2011/12 and 2012/13 along with the previously proposed UK method of empirical percentiles. The MEM resulted in thresholds that were lower than traditional thresholds but more appropriate as indicators of the start of influenza virus circulation. The intensity of the influenza season assessed with the MEM was similar to that reported through the percentile approach. The MEM pre-epidemic threshold has now been adopted for reporting by each country of the UK. Further work will continue to assess intensity of activity and apply standardized methods to other influenza-related data sources. PMID:25023603

  12. Twitter Improves Influenza Forecasting

    OpenAIRE

    Paul, Michael J.; Dredze, Mark; Broniatowski, David

    2014-01-01

    Accurate disease forecasts are imperative when preparing for influenza epidemic outbreaks; nevertheless, these forecasts are often limited by the time required to collect new, accurate data. In this paper, we show that data from the microblogging community Twitter significantly improves influenza forecasting. Most prior influenza forecast models are tested against historical influenza-like illness (ILI) data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). These data are releas...

  13. Assessing the Role of Voluntary Self-Isolation in the Control of Pandemic Influenza Using a Household Epidemic Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qingxia Zhang

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available In the absence of effective vaccines, antiviral drugs and personal protective measures, such as voluntary self-isolation, have been a part of preparedness plans for the next influenza pandemic. We used a household model to assess the effect of voluntary self-isolation on outbreak control when antiviral drugs are not provided sufficiently early. We found that the early initiation of voluntary self-isolation can overcome the negative effects caused by a delay in antiviral drug distribution when enough symptomatic individuals comply with home confinement at symptom onset. For example, for the baseline household reproduction number RH0 = 2:5, if delays of one or two days occur between clinical symptom development and the start of antiviral prophylaxis, then compliance rates of q ≥ 0:41 and q ≥ 0:6, respectively, are required to achieve the same level of effectiveness as starting antiviral prophylaxis at symptom onset. When the time to beginning voluntary self-isolation after symptom onset increases from zero to two days, this strategy has a limited effect on reducing the transmission of influenza; therefore, this strategy should be implemented as soon as possible. In addition, the effect of voluntary self-isolation decreases substantially with the proportion of asymptomatic infections increasing.

  14. Victoria Brú Sánchez and the epidemic of influenza in Cienfuegos, 1918 Victoria Brú Sánchez y la epidemia de Influenza de 1918 en Cienfuegos.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alfredo Dario Espinosa Brito

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Brief biographical data are exposed about the nurse Victoria Brú Sánchez, such as her birth, childhood and adolescent years. Some factors are mentioned that influenced in their vocational orientation toward the Infirmary, such as her family antecedents and personal experiences when witnessing other epidemics that whipped our population in those years. We refer too her life as student of the School of Nurses in the Hospital Nuestra Señora de las Mercedes de La Habana. It is mentioned as well all the places where she worked after graduation and the different positions that she occupied during its brief, but brilliant, professional life. The most characteristic features in her personality and her self-denying and heroic behavior, are analyzed, principally during the epidemic of Influenza that affected Cienfuegos in the year 1918, moment in which she lost the life trying to help other people.Se exponen breves datos biográficos de la enfermera Victoria Brú Sánchez, en cuanto a su nacimiento, infancia y juventud. Se mencionan algunos factores que influyeron en su orientación vocacional hacia la enfermería, tales como sus antecedentes familiares y vivencias personales al presenciar otras epidemias que azotaban a nuestra población en aquellos años. Se describe suscintamente su etapa de alumna de la Escuela de Enfermeras del Hospital Nuestra Señora de las Mercedes de La Habana y, una vez graduada, se mencionan todos los lugares donde trabajó y los distintos cargos que ocupó durante su breve, pero brillante, vida profesional. Se analizan los rasgos más característicos de su personalidad y su comportamiento abnegado y heroico durante la epidemia de Influenza que afectó a Cienfuegos en el año 1918, donde perdió la vida en el cumplimiento de su deber y por lo cual se convirtió en mártir de la enfermería cubana.

  15. 江阴市2009年甲型H1N1流感疫情分析%Epidemic features and influential factors of influenza A(H1N1)in Jiangyin in 2009

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    马焰

    2011-01-01

    目的 探讨江阴市甲型H1N1流感流行特征并提出防治措施.方法 对江阴市2009年甲型H1N1流感疫情资料进行分析.结果 2009年累计确诊甲型H1N1流感病人22例,其中重症病例3例、危重2例、死亡1例,发病率为1.25/10万.发生2起暴发疫情,均发生在学校.检测流感样病人咽拭子标本124份,甲型H1N1流感核酸阳性率为11.29%.结论江阴市采取的一系列甲型H1N1流感防控措施整体上显著有效,2009年江阴市甲型H1N1流感疫情处于低流行水平.%Aim To survey the epidemic features of influenza A (H1N1 ) in Jiang yin City. Methods Epidemic data of influenza A(H1N1 ) in Jiangyin of Jiangsu Province in 2009 were analyzed. Results In 2009, a total of 22 influenza A (H1N1) cases were confirmed,among them there were 5 severe cases,1 deaths.The morbidity rate was 1.25/100000 population. There were 2 outbreaks all in schools. 124 nasopharyngeal swab samples of Influenza-like patients were tested.The positive rate of nucleic acid influenza A (H1N1) was 11.29%. Conclusion The control measuers in combot against influenza A(H1N1 ) in Jiangyin is effective and the epidemic of influenza A(H1N1 ) in Jiangyin is at a low level n 2009.

  16. 甲型H1N1流感流行期间发热门诊的护理研究%Influenza A H1N1 Influenza During the Epidemic of Fever Clinic Nursing Research

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    孟广丽

    2014-01-01

    目的:探讨甲型H1N1流感流行期间发热门诊的护理管理。方法通过构建完全独立的发热门诊,制定完善的工作制度流程、并加强对医护人员的培训,实施规范化的管理,严格落实消毒隔离措施,并做好医护人员的防护。结果全部患者均主动愿意接受隔离,积极配合医院的工作,经治疗均有效治愈出院,无院内感染,无医护人员感染现象。结论在甲型H1N1流感流行期间采用相应的护理管理措施,能有效防控甲型H1N1流感的流行。%Objective To study the a/H1N1 flu epidemic during the fever outpatient nursing management. Methods By building a completely independent fever outpatient service, improve the system of work processes, and strengthen the training of medical staff, the implementation of standardized management, strict disinfection and isolation measures, the implementation of protection and medical staff. Results All patients were willing to accept the isolation actively, work actively cooperate with the hospital, after the treatment were cured and discharged, effectively without nosocomial infection, no medical staff infected phenomenon. Conclusion During the period of the a/H1N1 flu pandemic with the corresponding nursing measures, can effective prevention and control of influenza a H1N1 flu epidemic.

  17. Influenza Vaccination in Community Dwelling Elderly Persons

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    A.C.G. Voordouw (Bettie)

    2005-01-01

    textabstractAn influenza epidemic was first described in 1173, although there are reports of influenza as early as 412 BC. Recurrent epidemics and incidental pandemics caused by influenza virus are documented since the last 400 years. These were based upon clinical observation and epidemiology. Alth

  18. Universal immunity to influenza must outwit immune evasion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sergio Manuel Quinones-Parra

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Although an influenza vaccine has been available for 70 years, influenza virus still causes seasonal epidemics and worldwide pandemics. Currently available vaccines elicit strain-specific antibody responses to the surface haemagglutinin (HA and neuraminidase (NA proteins, but these can be ineffective against serologically-distinct viral variants and novel subtypes. Thus, there is a need for cross-protective or universal influenza vaccines to overcome the necessity for annual immunisation against seasonal influenza and to provide immunity to reduce the severity of infection with pandemic or outbreak viruses. It is well established that natural influenza infection can provide cross-reactive immunity that can reduce the impact of infection with distinct influenza type A strains and subtypes, including H1N1, H3N2, H2N2, H5N1 and H7N9. The key to generating universal influenza immunity via vaccination is to target functionally-conserved regions of the virus, which include epitopes on the internal proteins for cross-reactive T cell immunity or on the HA stem for broadly reactive antibody responses. In the wake of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic, broadly neutralizing antibodies have been characterized and isolated from convalescent and vaccinated individuals, inspiring development of new vaccination techniques to elicit such responses. Induction of influenza-specific T cell responses through vaccination has also been examined in clinical trials. Strong evidence is available from human and animal models of influenza to show that established influenza-specific T cell memory can reduce viral shedding and symptom severity. However, the published evidence also shows that CD8+ T cells can efficiently select immune escape mutants early after influenza virus infection. Here, we discuss universal immunity to influenza viruses mediated by both cross-reactive T cells and antibodies, the mechanisms of immune evasion in influenza, and how to counteract commonly occurring

  19. Live attenuated intranasal influenza vaccine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Esposito, Susanna; Montinaro, Valentina; Groppali, Elena; Tenconi, Rossana; Semino, Margherita; Principi, Nicola

    2012-01-01

    Annual vaccination is the most effective means of preventing and controlling influenza epidemics, and the traditional trivalent inactivated vaccine (TIV) is by far the most widely used. Unfortunately, it has a number of limitations, the most important of which is its poor immunogenicity in younger children and the elderly, the populations at greatest risk of severe influenza. Live attenuated influenza vaccine (LAIV) has characteristics that can overcome some of these limitations. It does not have to be injected because it is administered intranasally. It is very effective in children and adolescents, among whom it prevents significantly more cases of influenza than the traditional TIV. However, its efficacy in adults has not been adequately documented, which is why it has not been licensed for use by adults by the European health authorities. LAIV is safe and well tolerated by children aged > 2 y and adults, but some concerns arisen regarding its safety in younger children and subjects with previous asthma or with recurrent wheezing. Further studies are needed to solve these problems and to evaluate the possible role of LAIV in the annual vaccination of the general population.

  20. Impact of information on intentions to vaccinate in a potential epidemic: Swine-origin Influenza A (H1N1).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chanel, Olivier; Luchini, Stéphane; Massoni, Sébastien; Vergnaud, Jean-Christophe

    2011-01-01

    Vaccination campaigns to prevent the spread of epidemics are successful only if the targeted populations subscribe to the recommendations of health authorities. However, because compulsory vaccination is hardly conceivable in modern democracies, governments need to convince their populations through efficient and persuasive information campaigns. In the context of the swine-origin A (H1N1) 2009 pandemic, we use an interactive study among the general public in the South of France, with 175 participants, to explore what type of information can induce change in vaccination intentions at both aggregate and individual levels. We find that individual attitudes to vaccination are based on rational appraisal of the situation, and that it is information of a purely scientific nature that has the only significant positive effect on intention to vaccinate.

  1. Analysis of Epidemic of the influenza in Chongqing 2009%重庆市2009年流感监测结果分析

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    肖达勇; 戚小东; 凌华; 张敏; 冯燕; 赵婷; 陈爽; 孙军; 肖邦忠; 王豫林; 李勤; 龙江; 熊宇; 夏雨; 赵寒; 马颖; 易娟; 陈熙

    2012-01-01

    目的 分析重庆市2009年流感的流行特征,为制定防控策略提供科学依据.方法 对重庆市流感病例进行描述性流行病学分析;监测哨点医院门诊流感样病例就诊比、病毒谱和优势毒株;监测流感样病例、急性呼吸道感染病例聚集和暴发疫情流行特征、病毒谱和流行毒株.结果 2009年,重庆市报告甲型H1N1流感病例3178例,死亡2例,发病率为11.16/10万,死亡率为0.007/10万,病死率为0.06%;报告季节性流感11708例,无死亡,发病率为41.24/10万.甲型H1N1l流感为2009年流感流行的优势毒株,在重庆的流行过程经历了输入个案病例、输入聚集性病例、病例本土化并出现多点聚集3个阶段,流行高峰为10月.病例分布于全市40个区县,主城区发病率高于远郊县.男∶女=1.35∶1,报告发病以10~20岁组最多,职业以学生为主.2009年11月和2010年1月两次人群甲型H1N1流感病毒血清抗体监测阳性率分别为15.40%和10.14%.结论 2009年重庆市发生了流感流行,疫情已出现本土化;学校是流感发病的重点场所,学生是罹患的重点人群;发现的病例为冰山一角,估计目前重庆市的感染人群在300~400万,病例在200万左右.%OBJECTIVE To predict the morbidity tendency, and provide scientific evidence for its control told prevention in Chongqing according to the analysis of the epidemic situation of the A H1N1 flu in Chongqing from January to November in 2009. METHODS Using descriptive epidemiology analysis, we monitored the visit ratio, spectra and dominate strains of influenza virus among ILI (influenza-like illness) cases in OPC (out-patient clinic) of sentinel hospitals, and monitor the epidemic traits, spectra and dominate strains of influenza virus in ILI and ARI (acute respiratory infection) cases. RESULTS 3178 A H1N1 cases and 2 death cases were reported accumulatively in 2009. The IR (incidence rate) was 11.16/100 000, the mortality rate was 0

  2. 流感病毒Real-time RT-PCR核酸检测及流行情况分析%Detection of Influenza Viruses Using Real-time RT-PCR and Analysis of Influenza Epidemic Situation

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    冀林立

    2014-01-01

    Objective To analyze the results of detection on influenza virus in Ordos in 2012, in order to provide scientific basis for prevention and control of flu in this area. Methods Influenza throat swab specimens were col ected from sentinel hospital for virus nucleic acid detection by Real-time RT-PCR. Results:A total of 281 throat swab specimens were detected, 35 were positive for influenza virus nucleic acid, at a percentage of 12.46%. In which there was 16 cases of B type flu, at a percentage of 5.69%, 15 cases of seasonal H3, at a percentage of 5.34%,2 cases of new H1N1, at a percentage of 0.71%, 2 positive of A type undentified,at a percentage of 0.71%. The detection positive rate were 11.36%、27.50%、37.50%in January ,February and March, were 5.00%in October and December,no positive sample was detected in other month. Conclusion The survey showed that the major epidemic seasons were winter and spring,the major epidemic strains of the flu were B type and H3 type.%目的:分析鄂尔多斯市2012年流感检测结果,为本地区流感预防控制提供科学依据。方法采用Real-time RT-PCR法对哨点医院采集的流感样病例咽拭子标本进行病毒核酸检测。结果共检测流感咽拭子标本281份,流感病毒核酸阳性35份,总阳性率为12.46%。其中乙型16份,占5.69%,季节性H3亚型15份,占5.34%,甲型H1N12份,占0.71%,甲型未分型2份,占0.71%。2012年1月~3月阳性率分别为11.36%、27.50%、37.50%,10月和12月阳性率均为5.00%,其它月份未检出阳性。结论监测显示鄂尔多斯地区流感流行季节主要为冬春季,流行毒株主要是乙型和季节性H3亚型。

  3. A Belief Rule-Based Expert System to Diagnose Influenza

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hossain, Mohammad Shahadat; Khalid, Md. Saifuddin; Akter, Shamima;

    2014-01-01

    Influenza is a viral disease that usually affects the nose, throat, bronchi, and seldom lungs. This disease spreads as seasonal epidemics around the world, with an annual attack rate of estimated at 5%–10% in adults and 20%–30% in children. Thus, influenza is regarded as one of the critical health...... hazards of the world. Early diagnosis (consisting of determination of signs and symptoms) of this disease can lessen its severity significantly. Examples of signs and symptoms of this disease consist of cough, fever, headache, bireme, nasal congestion, nasal polyps and sinusitis. These signs and symptoms...

  4. Swine Influenza Update

    Science.gov (United States)

    On April 24, 2009, the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) confirmed an influenza epidemic was occurring in people and the genetic lineage was most closely related to influenza viruses known to be circulating in swine. The outbreak epicenter appeared to be in central Mexico and the virus spread to th...

  5. Analysis of the epidemic characters of influenza in Yunnan Province from 2006-2010%云南省2006~2010年流感监测结果分析

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    罗春蕊; 赵群; 向以斌; 宁德明; 李娟; 蒋立; 徐闻

    2012-01-01

    OBJECTIVE To explore the epidemic characters of influenza in Yunnan Province from 2006-2010, and provide scientific basis for the prevention of influenza. METHODS The data of epidemiology and etiology of influenza-likeillness (III) and outbreaks of influenza in Yunnan Province in 2006-2010 were collected and analyzed. RESULTS By collecting the data of national influenza surveillance hospitals from 2006-2010, the average percentage of the number of ILI cases accounted for total outpatient was 3.56%, and the peaks of epidemic of influenza were from September to March in the next year. All the influenza surveillance hospitals in Yunnan Province collected 23 618 influenza specimens, and 785 influenza virus strains were obtained. The positive rate was 3.32%, and most of them were B subtype (288 strains, 36.69%). 2 394 nucleic acid positive specimens were obtained in 2009-2010, and positive rate was 14.57%. Most of them were A/H1N1 subtype (1 599 positive specimens, 66.80%). There were 139 outbreaks of influenza from 2006-2010 in Yunnan Province. All the outbreaks of influenza occurred in primary and middle schools. The peak of outbreaks of influenza was in March to April (63 outbreaks, 45.32%) and September (37 outbreaks, 26.62%). 3 952 influenza specimens were collected and 314 influenza virus strains were obtained, and with positive rate of 7.95%. Most of them were B type (229strains, 72.93%). 1 408 nucleic acid positive specimens were obtained from 2009-2010, and with the positive rate of 42.84%. Most of them were A/H1N1 subtype (869 positive specimens, 61.72%). CONCLUSION The peak of hospital surveillance and the peak of outbreaks of influenza was accordant. The peaks of epidemic of influenza in 2006-2010 were in Spring and Autumn. Different types of strain predominated alternatively, and the outbreaks of influenza were mainly occurred in primary and middle schools.%目的 探讨2006~2010年云南省流感的流行特征,为制定流感防制

  6. FluDetWeb: an interactive web-based system for the early detection of the onset of influenza epidemics

    OpenAIRE

    Miralles María; Martínez-Beneito Miguel; López-Quílez Antonio; Conesa David; Verdejo Francisco

    2009-01-01

    Abstract Background The early identification of influenza outbreaks has became a priority in public health practice. A large variety of statistical algorithms for the automated monitoring of influenza surveillance have been proposed, but most of them require not only a lot of computational effort but also operation of sometimes not-so-friendly software. Results In this paper, we introduce FluDetWeb, an implementation of a prospective influenza surveillance methodology based on a client-server...

  7. Influenza A virus infection in zebrafish recapitulates mammalian infection and sensitivity to anti-influenza drug treatment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kristin A. Gabor

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Seasonal influenza virus infections cause annual epidemics and sporadic pandemics. These present a global health concern, resulting in substantial morbidity, mortality and economic burdens. Prevention and treatment of influenza illness is difficult due to the high mutation rate of the virus, the emergence of new virus strains and increasing antiviral resistance. Animal models of influenza infection are crucial to our gaining a better understanding of the pathogenesis of and host response to influenza infection, and for screening antiviral compounds. However, the current animal models used for influenza research are not amenable to visualization of host-pathogen interactions or high-throughput drug screening. The zebrafish is widely recognized as a valuable model system for infectious disease research and therapeutic drug testing. Here, we describe a zebrafish model for human influenza A virus (IAV infection and show that zebrafish embryos are susceptible to challenge with both influenza A strains APR8 and X-31 (Aichi. Influenza-infected zebrafish show an increase in viral burden and mortality over time. The expression of innate antiviral genes, the gross pathology and the histopathology in infected zebrafish recapitulate clinical symptoms of influenza infections in humans. This is the first time that zebrafish embryos have been infected with a fluorescent IAV in order to visualize infection in a live vertebrate host, revealing a pattern of vascular endothelial infection. Treatment of infected zebrafish with a known anti-influenza compound, Zanamivir, reduced mortality and the expression of a fluorescent viral gene product, demonstrating the validity of this model to screen for potential antiviral drugs. The zebrafish model system has provided invaluable insights into host-pathogen interactions for a range of infectious diseases. Here, we demonstrate a novel use of this species for IAV research. This model has great potential to advance our

  8. Influenza A virus infection in zebrafish recapitulates mammalian infection and sensitivity to anti-influenza drug treatment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gabor, Kristin A; Goody, Michelle F; Mowel, Walter K; Breitbach, Meghan E; Gratacap, Remi L; Witten, P Eckhard; Kim, Carol H

    2014-11-01

    Seasonal influenza virus infections cause annual epidemics and sporadic pandemics. These present a global health concern, resulting in substantial morbidity, mortality and economic burdens. Prevention and treatment of influenza illness is difficult due to the high mutation rate of the virus, the emergence of new virus strains and increasing antiviral resistance. Animal models of influenza infection are crucial to our gaining a better understanding of the pathogenesis of and host response to influenza infection, and for screening antiviral compounds. However, the current animal models used for influenza research are not amenable to visualization of host-pathogen interactions or high-throughput drug screening. The zebrafish is widely recognized as a valuable model system for infectious disease research and therapeutic drug testing. Here, we describe a zebrafish model for human influenza A virus (IAV) infection and show that zebrafish embryos are susceptible to challenge with both influenza A strains APR8 and X-31 (Aichi). Influenza-infected zebrafish show an increase in viral burden and mortality over time. The expression of innate antiviral genes, the gross pathology and the histopathology in infected zebrafish recapitulate clinical symptoms of influenza infections in humans. This is the first time that zebrafish embryos have been infected with a fluorescent IAV in order to visualize infection in a live vertebrate host, revealing a pattern of vascular endothelial infection. Treatment of infected zebrafish with a known anti-influenza compound, Zanamivir, reduced mortality and the expression of a fluorescent viral gene product, demonstrating the validity of this model to screen for potential antiviral drugs. The zebrafish model system has provided invaluable insights into host-pathogen interactions for a range of infectious diseases. Here, we demonstrate a novel use of this species for IAV research. This model has great potential to advance our understanding of

  9. Recurrent dynamics in an epidemic model due to stimulated bifurcation crossovers

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Juanico, Drandreb Earl [Department of Mathematics, Ateneo de Manila University, Loyola Heights, Quezon City, Philippines 1108 (Philippines); National Institute of Physics, University of the Philippines, Diliman, Quezon City, Philippines 1101 (Philippines)

    2015-05-15

    Epidemics are known to persist in the form of recurrence cycles. Despite intervention efforts through vaccination and targeted social distancing, peaks of activity for infectious diseases like influenza reappear over time. Analysis of a stochastic model is here undertaken to explore a proposed cycle-generating mechanism – the bifurcation crossover. Time series from simulations of the model exhibit oscillations similar to the temporal signature of influenza activity. Power-spectral density indicates a resonant frequency, which corresponds to the annual seasonality of influenza in temperate zones. The study finds that intervention actions influence the extinguishability of epidemic activity. Asymptotic solution to a backward Kolmogorov equation corresponds to a mean extinction time that is a function of both intervention efficacy and population size. Intervention efficacy must be greater than a certain threshold to increase the chances of extinguishing the epidemic. Agreement of the model with several phenomenological features of epidemic cycles lends to it a tractability that may serve as early warning of imminent outbreaks.

  10. Air pollutants and health outcomes: Assessment of confounding by influenza

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thach, Thuan-Quoc; Wong, Chit-Ming; Chan, King-Pan; Chau, Yuen-Kwan; Neil Thomas, G.; Ou, Chun-Quan; Yang, Lin; Peiris, Joseph S. M.; Lam, Tai-Hing; Hedley, Anthony J.

    2010-04-01

    We assessed confounding of associations between short-term effects of air pollution and health outcomes by influenza using Hong Kong mortality and hospitalization data for 1996-2002. Three measures of influenza were defined: (i) intensity: weekly proportion of positive influenza viruses, (ii) epidemic: weekly number of positive influenza viruses ≥4% of the annual number for ≥2 consecutive weeks, and (iii) predominance: an epidemic period with co-circulation of respiratory syncytial virus effects of influenza on associations between nitrogen dioxide (NO 2), sulfur dioxide (SO 2), particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter ≤10 μm (PM 10) and ozone (O 3) and health outcomes including all natural causes mortality, cardiorespiratory mortality and hospitalization. Generalized additive Poisson regression model with natural cubic splines was fitted to control for time-varying covariates to estimate air pollution health effects. Confounding with influenza was assessed using an absolute difference of >0.1% between unadjusted and adjusted excess risks (ER%). Without adjustment, pollutants were associated with positive ER% for all health outcomes except asthma and stroke hospitalization with SO 2 and stroke hospitalization with O 3. Following adjustment, changes in ER% for all pollutants were 0.1% for mortality from stroke with NO 2 and SO 2, cardiac or heart disease with NO 2, PM 10 and O 3, lower respiratory infections with NO 2 and O 3 and mortality from chronic obstructive pulmonary disease with all pollutants. Changes >0.1% were seen for acute respiratory disease hospitalization with NO 2, SO 2 and O 3 and acute lower respiratory infections hospitalization with PM 10. Generally, influenza does not confound the observed associations of air pollutants with all natural causes mortality and cardiovascular hospitalization, but for some pollutants and subgroups of cardiorespiratory mortality and respiratory hospitalization there was evidence to suggest confounding by

  11. Heterosubtypic T-Cell Immunity to Influenza in Humans: Challenges for Universal T-Cell Influenza Vaccines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sridhar, Saranya

    2016-01-01

    Influenza A virus (IAV) remains a significant global health issue causing annual epidemics, pandemics, and sporadic human infections with highly pathogenic avian or swine influenza viruses. Current inactivated and live vaccines are the mainstay of the public health response to influenza, although vaccine efficacy is lower against antigenically distinct viral strains. The first pandemic of the twenty-first century underlined the urgent need to develop new vaccines capable of protecting against a broad range of influenza strains. Such “universal” influenza vaccines are based on the idea of heterosubtypic immunity, wherein immune responses to epitopes conserved across IAV strains can confer protection against subsequent infection and disease. T-cells recognizing conserved antigens are a key contributor in reducing viral load and limiting disease severity during heterosubtypic infection in animal models. Recent studies undertaken during the 2009 H1N1 pandemic provided key insights into the role of cross-reactive T-cells in mediating heterosubtypic protection in humans. This review focuses on human influenza to discuss the epidemiological observations that underpin cross-protective immunity, the role of T-cells as key players in mediating heterosubtypic immunity including recent data from natural history cohort studies and the ongoing clinical development of T-cell-inducing universal influenza vaccines. The challenges and knowledge gaps for developing vaccines to generate long-lived protective T-cell responses is discussed. PMID:27242800

  12. Heterosybtypic T-cell immunity to influenza in humans: challenges for universal T-cell influenza vaccines

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saranya eSridhar

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Influenza A virus (IAV remains a significant global health issue causing annual epidemics, pandemics and sporadic human infections with highly pathogenic avian or swine influenza viruses. Current inactivated and live vaccines are the mainstay of the public health response to influenza although vaccine efficacy is lower against antigenically distinct viral strains. The first pandemic of the 21st century underlined the urgent need to develop new vaccines capable of protection against a broad range of influenza strains. Such universal influenza vaccines are based on the idea of heterosubtypic immunity wherein immune responses to epitopes conserved across IAV strains can confer protection against subsequent infection and disease. T-cells recognising conserved antigens are a key contributor to reducing viral load and limiting disease severity during heterosubtypic infection in animal models. Recent studies undertaken during the 2009 H1N1 pandemic provided key insights into the role of cross-reactive T-cells in mediating heterosubtypic protection in humans. This review focuses on human influenza to discuss the epidemiological observations that underpin cross-protective immunity, the role of T-cells as key players in mediating heterosubtypic immunity including recent data from natural history cohort studies and the ongoing clinical development of T-cell inducing universal influenza vaccines. The challenges and knowledge gaps for developing vaccines to generate long-lived protective T-cell responses is discussed.

  13. Novel hemagglutinin-based influenza virus inhibitors

    OpenAIRE

    Shen, Xintian; Zhang, Xuanxuan; Liu, Shuwen

    2013-01-01

    Influenza virus has caused seasonal epidemics and worldwide pandemics, which caused tremendous loss of human lives and socioeconomics. Nowadays, only two classes of anti-influenza drugs, M2 ion channel inhibitors and neuraminidase inhibitors respectively, are used for prophylaxis and treatment of influenza virus infection. Unfortunately, influenza virus strains resistant to one or all of those drugs emerge frequently. Hemagglutinin (HA), the glycoprotein in influenza virus envelope, plays a c...

  14. Waves of El Nino-southern Oscillation and Influenza Pandemics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olusegun Steven Ayodele Oluwole

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Influenza pandemics have occurred at irregular intervals for over 500 years, unlike seasonal influenza epidemics which occur annually. Although the risk factors are known, the basis for the timing of influenza pandemic waves are unknown. Coherence of peaks of El Niño and influenza pandemic in 2009–2010, however, suggests that both waves are coupled. This study was done to determine the relation of influenza pandemics to the peaks and waveforms of El Niño southern oscillation (ENSO. ENSO cycles from 1871–2015 which had El Niño phases were windowed from Multivariate El Niño Index. Influenza pandemic peaks were mapped to ENSO monthly time series. ENSO waveforms were compared graphically, and fitted to nonstationary cosinor models. Second order polynomial regression model was fitted to the peak and duration of El Niño. Agglomerative hierarchical cluster of ENSO waveforms was performed. All influenza pandemic peaks mapped to El Niño peaks, with lags of 0–5 months. ENSO waveforms during influenza pandemics share parameters of oscillation. Nonstationary cosinor models showed that ENSO cycles are complex waves. There was second order polynomial relationship between peak and duration of El Niños, p < 0.0001. ENSO waveforms clustered into four distinct groups. ENSO waveforms during influenza pandemics of 1889–1900, 1957–1958, and 1968–1969 linked closely. ENSO indices were significantly high from 7–16 months after onset of cycles, p < 0.0001. Surveillance for El Niño events to forecast periods of maximal transmission and survival of influenza A viruses is, therefore, crucial for public health control strategies.

  15. 温州市首次甲型H1N1流感流行的特征分析%Characteristics analysis on the first epidemic of influenza A(H1N1)in Wenzhou

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    周祖木; 蔡圆圆; 魏晶娇; 陈晟; 潘琼娇; 马洪波

    2011-01-01

    Objective To analyse the epidemiological characteristics of the first influenza A (H1N1) epidemic in Wenzhou and provide a scientific basis for the measures on control and prevention of influenza. Methods A descriptive epidemiological method was used for analysis of influenza A (H1N1) case data in Wenzhou from May 2009 to July 2010. Results There were 4164 cases (accumulative incidence 53.94/100 000) of influenza A (H1N1) in Wenzhou between May 2009 and July 2010. The peak of incidence was from October 2009 to January 2010, there were 3825 cases, accounted for 91.86%. The patients occurred in eleven counties(districts) of Wenzhou. Most of the cases were found in Lucheng, Ruian and Yueqing counties (districts). Cases for groups aged 5-19 years accounted for 67.39% (2806 The influenza A (H1N1) is gradually transmitted from urbans to rural areas after first imported case is introduced to Wenzhou. The incidence rate is closely related to density of population and mobility of population. Schools are risk sellings for transmissions of influenza A (H1N1). It is very critical to strengthen the epidemiological surveillance for influenza in schools. The influenza A (H1N1) vaccination is specific measures for the prevention of influenza A(H1N1) and gained apparent effectiveness.%目的 分析温州市首次甲型H1N1流感流行特征,为防控措施提出建议.方法 用描述性流行病学方法,对温州市2009年5月至2010年7月甲型H1N1流感病例个案资料进行分析.结果 2009年5月至2010年7月共报告甲型H1N1流感病例4164例,累积发病率53.94/10万.2009年10月至2010年1月为发病高峰,共报告病例数3825例,占总病例数的91.86%.11个县(市、区)均有病例发生,病例数居前三位的是鹿城区、瑞安市和乐清市.5~19岁年龄组共2806例,占总病例数的67.39%,男女之比为1.25∶1;学生占总病例数的66.11%.213例重症与危重症病例中以散居儿童和学生最多,共91例,占42.72%.结论 输入性病

  16. Effectiveness of the influenza A(H1N1)PDM09 vaccine in adults recommended for annual influenza vaccination: A matched case-control study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gefenaite, Giedre; Tacken, Margot; Bos, Jens; Stirbu-Wagner, Irina; Korevaar, Joke C.; Stolk, Ronald P.; Wolters, Bert; Bijl, Marc; Postma, Maarten J.; Wilschut, Jan; Nichol, Kristin L.; Hak, Eelko

    2012-01-01

    Background and objectives Because of variability in published A(H1N1)pdm09 influenza vaccine effectiveness estimates, we aimed to assess the effectiveness of MF59-adjuvanted A(H1N1)pdm09 vaccine in a matched case-control study. Patients/methods This study was conducted during the pandemic influenza

  17. A SEASONAL INFLUENZA THEORY AND MATHEMATICAL MODEL INCORPORATING METEOROLOGICAL AND SOCIO- BEHAVIORAL FACTORS

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Zhixiang ZHOU

    2009-01-01

    On the basis of a comprehensive literature review and data analysis of global influenza surveillance,a transmission theory based numerical model is developed to understand the causative factors of influenza seasonality and the biodynamical mechanisms of seasonal flu. The model is applied to simulate the seasonality and weekly activity of influenza in different areas across all continents and climate zones around the world. Model solution and the good matches between model output and actual influenza indexes affirm that influenza activity is highly auto-correlative and relies on determinants of a broad spectrum. Internal dynamic resonance; variations of meteorological elements (solar radiation,precipitation and dewpoint); socio-behavioral influences and herd immunity to circulating strains prove to be the critical explanatory thctors of the seasonality and weekly activity of influenza. In all climate regions,influenza activity is proportional to the exponential of the number of days with precipitation and to the negative exponential of quarter power of sunny hours. Influenza activity is a negative exponential function of dewpoint in temperate and arctic regions and an exponential function of the absolute deviation of dewpoint from its annual mean in the tropics. Epidemics of seasonal influenza could be deemed as the consequence of the dynamic resonance and interactions of determinants. Early interventions (such as opportune vaccination,prompt social distancing,and maintaining incidence well below a baseline) are key to the control and prevention of seasonal influenza. Moderate amount of sunlight exposure or Vitamin D supplementation during rainy and short-day photoperiod seasons,more outdoor activities,and appropriate indoor dewpoint deserve great attention in influenza prevention. To a considerable degree,the study reveals the mechanism of inlluenza seasonality,demonstrating a potential for influenza activity projection. The concept and algorithm can be explored

  18. Ten influenza seasons in France: distribution and timing of influenza A and B circulation, 2003–2013

    OpenAIRE

    Mosnier, Anne; Caini, Saverio; Daviaud, Isabelle; Bensoussan, Jean-Louis; Stoll-Keller, Françoise; Bui, Tan Tai; Lina, Bruno; van der Werf, Sylvie; Cohen, Jean Marie; ,

    2015-01-01

    Background Describing the circulation of influenza viruses and the characteristics of seasonal epidemics remains an essential tool to optimize the strategies of influenza prevention and control. Special attention has been recently paid to influenza B in the context of the availability of a quadrivalent vaccine, containing two influenza B strains. Methods We used data from a practitioners-based influenza surveillance network to describe the circulation of influenza viruses in France from 2003–...

  19. Influenza update 2007-2008: vaccine advances, pandemic preparation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mossad, Sherif B

    2007-12-01

    Influenza vaccination remains our best measure to prevent epidemic and pandemic influenza. We must continue to improve vaccination rates for targeted populations. Antiviral options are currently limited to the neuraminidase inhibitors. PMID:18183839

  20. Pratiques sociales, politiques de santé publique et nouvelles épidémies en Egypte Social Behavior, Public Health Policies and New Epidemics in Egypt : The Case of Hepatitis C and Avian Influenza

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saadia Radi

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available À partir de l’épidémie d’hépatite C et de la grippe aviaire en Égypte, cet article montre que les références culturelles sont moins importantes pour comprendre les systèmes de santé que les conditions sociales et économiques. Il insiste sur la nécessité d’étudier les contextes, en évitant l’erreur d’une approche culturaliste, même si les malades usent de thérapies « traditionnelles ». De ce point de vue, les politiques publiques sont plus importantes que les croyances. Le social est décrit comme le contexte écologique de l’épidémie, à travers l’exemple de l’hépatite C en Égypte.Using the epidemic of Hepatitis C and Avian influenza in Egypt as a case study, the paper discusses the approaches of the care health systems in social sciences. It shows that cultural skills are less important than social and economic factors. It argues that it is necessary to analyze the contexts and to avoid the fallacy of culturalism, even if sick persons use traditional cures. From this point of view, public policies are more important than beliefs. The social sphere is described as the ecological context of epidemic.

  1. Molecular and antigenic characterization of the H3 hemagglutinin of H3N2 influenza A virus strains collected in the Czech Republic during the 2014/2015 epidemic season.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nagy, A; Jiřincová, H; Kynčl, J; Havlíčková, M

    2016-01-01

    The 2014/2015 influenza epidemic season was characterized by the predominance of the H3N2 subtype. The presented study investigated the genetic and antigenic heterogeneity of the H3N2 strains collected in the Czech Republic from November 2014 to March 2015. Phylogenetic analysis of the representative H3 hemagglutinin sequences was performed and the glycosylation status and crucial antigenic mutations were compared relative to the 2014 and 2015 vaccine strains (A/Texas/50/2012 and A/Switzerland/9715293/2013) and visualized in the H3 crystal structure. The molecular data were further supplemented by hemagglutination-inhibition test (HIT) results on fifteen H3N2 2014/2015 strains by using the A/Texas/50/2012 (H3N2) and A/Switzerland/9715293/13 (H3N2) antisera. Our data on the Czech H3N2 viruses from the 2014/2015 epidemic season could supplement the reports of official authorities with data from a particular geographi-cal area. PMID:27467326

  2. Clinical outcomes of seasonal influenza and pandemic influenza A (H1N1 in pediatric inpatients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Budd Alicia

    2010-10-01

    infection control efforts. We believe that this attention should become an annual effort for SI. Strong unified messages from health care providers and the media encouraging influenza vaccination will likely prove very useful in averting some of the morbidity related to influenza for future epidemics.

  3. Current Approaches for Diagnosis of Influenza Virus Infections in Humans

    OpenAIRE

    Vemula, Sai Vikram; Zhao, Jiangqin; Liu, Jikun; Wang, Xue; Biswas, Santanu; Hewlett, Indira

    2016-01-01

    Despite significant advancement in vaccine and virus research, influenza continues to be a major public health concern. Each year in the United States of America, influenza viruses are responsible for seasonal epidemics resulting in over 200,000 hospitalizations and 30,000–50,000 deaths. Accurate and early diagnosis of influenza viral infections are critical for rapid initiation of antiviral therapy to reduce influenza related morbidity and mortality both during seasonal epidemics and pandemi...

  4. [Influenza surveillance in nine consecutive seasons, 2003-2012: results from National Influenza Reference Laboratory, Istanbul Faculty Of Medicine, Turkey].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akçay Ciblak, Meral; Kanturvardar Tütenyurd, Melis; Asar, Serkan; Tulunoğlu, Merve; Fındıkçı, Nurcihan; Badur, Selim

    2012-10-01

    Influenza is a public health problem that affects 5-20% of the world population annually causing high morbidity and mortality especially in risk groups. In addition to determining prevention and treatment strategies with vaccines and antivirals, surveillance data plays an important role in combat against influenza. Surveillance provides valuable data on characteristics of influenza activity, on types, sub-types, antigenic properties and antiviral resistance profile of circulating viruses in a given region. The first influenza surveillance was initiated as a pilot study in 2003 by now named National Influenza Reference Laboratory, Istanbul Faculty of Medicine. Surveillance was launched at national level by Ministry of Health in 2004 and two National Influenza Laboratories, one in Istanbul and the other in Ankara, have been conducting surveillance in Turkey. Surveillance data obtained for nine consecutive years, 2003-2012, by National Influenza Reference Laboratory in Istanbul Faculty of Medicine have been summarized in this report. During 2003-2012 influenza surveillance seasons, a total of 11.077 nasal swabs collected in viral transport medium were sent to the National Influenza Reference Laboratory, Istanbul for analysis. Immun-capture ELISA followed by MDCK cell culture was used for detection of influenza viruses before 2009 and real-time RT-PCR was used thereafter. Antigenic characterizations were done by hemagglutination inhibition assay with the reactives supplied by World Health Organization. Analysis of the results showed that influenza B viruses have entered the circulation in 2005-2006 seasons, and have contributed to the epidemics at increasing rates every year except in the 2009 pandemic season. Influenza B Victoria and Yamagata lineages were cocirculating for two seasons. For other seasons either lineage was in circulation. Antigenic characterization revealed that circulating B viruses matched the vaccine composition either partially or totally for only

  5. Influenza A Virus and Influenza B Virus Can Induce Apoptosis via Intrinsic or Extrinsic Pathways and Also via NF-κB in a Time and Dose Dependent Manner

    OpenAIRE

    Ibrahim El-Sayed; Khalid Bassiouny; Aziz Nokaly; Abdelghani, Ahmed S.; Wael Roshdy

    2016-01-01

    Influenza viruses are able to cause annual epidemics and pandemics due to their mutation rates and reassortment capabilities leading to antigenic shifts and drifts. To identify host response to influenza A and B viruses on A549 and MDCK II cells at low and high MOIs, expressions of MxA and caspases 3, 8, and 9 and BAD, TNFα, and IκBα genes were measured in the cells supernatants. H1N1 and H3N2 prefer to initially enhance the intrinsic pathway, determined by higher caspase 9 activity in MDCK I...

  6. ANALYSIS OF EPIDEMIC CHARACTERISTICS OF A (H1N1) INFLUENZA IN 2009 IN QINGHAI%青海省2009年甲型H1N1流感流行病学特征分析

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    曹海兰

    2012-01-01

    [目的]通过对青海省2009年甲型H1N1流感进行疫情资料的分析,为制定防治对策提供科学依据.[方法]运用描述流行病学方法描述甲型H1N1流感的流行病学特征,采用Excel软件进行统计分析.[结果]青海省2009年共报告甲型H1N1流感2109例,死亡7例,发病率为38.05/10万,死亡率为0.13/10万,病死率为0.33%:发病率居甲、乙类传染病第3位.病例主要集中在人口比较集中的西宁市和海东地区;发病高峰期在9~10月份,占全年甲型H1N1流感发病数的86.11%;发病年龄以8~24岁组青少年为主,占总病例数的80.56%;男性发病率显著高于女性,男、女性别发病数之比为1.68∶1.[结论]2009年甲型H1N1流感发病率较高,发病以8~24岁青少年为主,职业主要以学生为主,防治的重点应放在人口比较密集的场所,学生为甲型H1N1流感发病的高危人群.接种甲型H1N1流感疫苗是预防和控制甲型H1N1流感的重要措施之一.%[Objective] To analyze the epidemic data of A (H1N1) influenza in 2009 in Qinghai province, and provide evidence for the implementation of control strategies. [Methods] The epidemiological characteristics of A (H1N1) influenza were analyzed by descriptive epidemiological method, and data was analyzed by Excel 2003, [Results] It was shown that 2109 influenza A (H1N1) cases were reported in 2009 in Qinghai province, the incidence rate was 38.05/100 000. A total of 7 death cases reported, and the mortality rate was 0.13/100 000 and the fatality rate was 0.33%. The incidence rate of A (HIM) influenza ranked the third of infectious diseases A and B, The cases mainly concentrated in Xining City and Haidong District with relatively dense population. The season peak appeared from September to October, which accounted for 86.11% of the total cases. The person aged 8 to 24 years old were affected easily, which accounted for 80.56% of the total cases. The incidence rate in males was

  7. Characterization of regional influenza seasonality patterns in China and implications for vaccination strategies: spatio-temporal modeling of surveillance data.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hongjie Yu

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The complexity of influenza seasonal patterns in the inter-tropical zone impedes the establishment of effective routine immunization programs. China is a climatologically and economically diverse country, which has yet to establish a national influenza vaccination program. Here we characterize the diversity of influenza seasonality in China and make recommendations to guide future vaccination programs. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We compiled weekly reports of laboratory-confirmed influenza A and B infections from sentinel hospitals in cities representing 30 Chinese provinces, 2005-2011, and data on population demographics, mobility patterns, socio-economic, and climate factors. We applied linear regression models with harmonic terms to estimate influenza seasonal characteristics, including the amplitude of annual and semi-annual periodicities, their ratio, and peak timing. Hierarchical Bayesian modeling and hierarchical clustering were used to identify predictors of influenza seasonal characteristics and define epidemiologically-relevant regions. The annual periodicity of influenza A epidemics increased with latitude (mean amplitude of annual cycle standardized by mean incidence, 140% [95% CI 128%-151%] in the north versus 37% [95% CI 27%-47%] in the south, p0.6 in provinces located within 27.4°N-31.3°N, slope of latitudinal gradient with latitude -0.016 [95% CI -0.025 to -0.008], p<0.001. In contrast, influenza B activity predominated in colder months throughout most of China. Climate factors were the strongest predictors of influenza seasonality, including minimum temperature, hours of sunshine, and maximum rainfall. Our main study limitations include a short surveillance period and sparse influenza sampling in some of the southern provinces. CONCLUSIONS: Regional-specific influenza vaccination strategies would be optimal in China; in particular, annual campaigns should be initiated 4-6 months apart in Northern and Southern China

  8. A Functional Role of Fibroblast Growth Factor Receptor 1 (FGFR1 in the Suppression of Influenza A Virus Replication.

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    Xin Liu

    Full Text Available Influenza A virus causes annual epidemics and occasional pandemics in humans. Here, we investigated four members of the fibroblast growth factor receptor (FGFR family; FGFR1 to 4, and examined their expression patterns in human lung epithelial cells A549 with influenza A virus infection. We identified a functional role of FGFR1 in influenza A/Puerto Rico/8/1934 (PR8 and A/Anhui/01/2005 (H5N1 virus replication. Our results showed that FGFR1 silencing by siRNA interference promoted influenza A/PR8 and H5N1 virus replication in A549 cells, while lentivirus-mediated exogenous FGFR1 expression significantly suppressed influenza A virus replication; however, FGFR4 did not have the same effects. Moreover, FGFR1 phosphorylation levels were downregulated in A549 cells by influenza A virus infection, while the repression of FGFR1 kinase using PD173074, a potent and selective FGFR1 inhibitor, could enhance virus replication. Furthermore, we found that FGFR1 inhibits influenza virus internalization, but not binding, during viral entry. These results suggested that FGFR1 specifically antagonizes influenza A virus replication, probably by blocking viral entry.

  9. Temporal Patterns of Influenza A and B in Tropical and Temperate Countries: What Are the Lessons for Influenza Vaccination?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saverio Caini

    Full Text Available Determining the optimal time to vaccinate is important for influenza vaccination programmes. Here, we assessed the temporal characteristics of influenza epidemics in the Northern and Southern hemispheres and in the tropics, and discuss their implications for vaccination programmes.This was a retrospective analysis of surveillance data between 2000 and 2014 from the Global Influenza B Study database. The seasonal peak of influenza was defined as the week with the most reported cases (overall, A, and B in the season. The duration of seasonal activity was assessed using the maximum proportion of influenza cases during three consecutive months and the minimum number of months with ≥80% of cases in the season. We also assessed whether co-circulation of A and B virus types affected the duration of influenza epidemics.212 influenza seasons and 571,907 cases were included from 30 countries. In tropical countries, the seasonal influenza activity lasted longer and the peaks of influenza A and B coincided less frequently than in temperate countries. Temporal characteristics of influenza epidemics were heterogeneous in the tropics, with distinct seasonal epidemics observed only in some countries. Seasons with co-circulation of influenza A and B were longer than influenza A seasons, especially in the tropics.Our findings show that influenza seasonality is less well defined in the tropics than in temperate regions. This has important implications for vaccination programmes in these countries. High-quality influenza surveillance systems are needed in the tropics to enable decisions about when to vaccinate.

  10. Clinical data on Fluarix: an inactivated split seasonal influenza vaccine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    El Sahly, Hana M; Keitel, Wendy A

    2008-08-01

    Influenza viruses cause annual winter epidemics in temperate regions, with significant morbidity, mortality and economical impact. Fluarix is a split, trivalent, inactivated vaccine, manufactured from highly purified, egg-grown influenza viruses by GlaxoSmithKline. In 2005, Fluarix underwent accelerated approval for use in adults by the US FDA following a US-based, randomized, placebo-controlled trial that established its safety and immunogenicity in adults. The vaccine has been licensed in Europe since 1992 for all age groups. Multiple registration trials in all age groups in Europe have demonstrated that the vaccine was safe and well tolerated and of immunogenicity standards that met the requirements of the European Committee for Medicinal Products for Human Use. There are no published clinical trials evaluating the effectiveness or efficacy of Fluarix against influenza and its complications. Currently, Fluarix plays an important role in the diversification of the supply chain of influenza vaccine to the community. However, vaccines with improved immunogenicity in at-risk populations, such as the elderly, and with less reliance on growth in eggs, as well as the inherent demanding timelines, are needed to enhance the control of influenza. PMID:18665769

  11. 甲流期间医护人员的认知、心理状态回顾性分析%Retrospective Analysis on Cognition for Influenza A and Psychological Status of Medical Staffs during the Epidemic of Influenza A (H1N1)

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    武涧松; 闫涛; 彭石林

    2011-01-01

    目的 回顾性分析甲流期间高危医护人员对甲流的认知及心理状态,探讨其影响因素.方法 采用自制调查问卷,动态观察143名抗甲流医护人员甲流认知和心理状态,并以普通病房41名医护人员为对照,Logistic回归分析相关因素.结果 高危组甲流认知评分显著高于对照组(P<0.05).认知随疫情发展呈持续改善趋势,受培训次数、高危程度、职业、年龄、子女情况5个因素影响(OR>1).高危组心理异常重于对照(P<0.05),发热门诊最明显,主要表现为情绪和睡眠障碍,与认知水平、性别负相关(OR<1),与高危程度、疫情发展正相关(OR>1).结论 高危医护人员具有较高甲流认知水平,存在一定程度心理障碍,需要根据疫情变化和人员特征,给予针对性培训和心理干预.%Objective To analyze retrospectively cognition for Influenza A(H1N1) and psychological status of medical staffs in high-risk during Influenza A, and explore their affecting factors. Methods With self-designed questionnaire .cognition for Influenza A and psychological status of 143 medical staffs fighting against Influenza A were investigated dynamically,and compared with 41 medical staffs of general ward. Logistic regression was used to analyse their affecting factors. Results Cognition scores of high-risk groups were higher than those of control significantly (Pl). There were more serious psychological abnormalities in high-risk groups than control(P1). Conclusion Medical staffs in high-risk showed a higher level of cognition for Influenza A and a certain degree of psychological abnormalities at the same time. It was necessary to give medical staffs pointed training and psychological Intervention according to changes of the epidemic and characteristics of personnel.

  12. Genetic Strategy to Prevent Influenza Virus Infections in Animals

    OpenAIRE

    Chen, Jianzhu; Chen, Steve C.-Y.; Stern, Patrick; Scott, Benjamin B; Lois, Carlos

    2008-01-01

    The natural reservoirs of influenza viruses are aquatic birds. After adaptation, avian viruses can acquire the ability to infect humans and cause severe disease. Because domestic poultry serves as a key link between the natural reservoir of influenza viruses and epidemics and pandemics in human populations, an effective measure to control influenza would be to eliminate or reduce influenza virus infection in domestic poultry. The development and distribution of influenza-resistant poultry rep...

  13. The population impact of a large school-based influenza vaccination campaign.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos G Grijalva

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The optimal vaccination strategy to mitigate the impact of influenza epidemics is unclear. In 2005, a countywide school-based influenza vaccination campaign was launched in Knox County, Tennessee (population 385,899. Approximately 41% and 48% of eligible county children aged 5-17 years were immunized with live attenuated influenza vaccine before the 2005-2006 and 2006-2007 influenza seasons, respectively. We sought to determine the population impact of this campaign. METHODS: Laboratory-confirmed influenza data defined influenza seasons. We calculated the incidence of medically attended acute respiratory illness attributable to influenza in Knox and Knox-surrounding counties (concurrent controls during consecutive seasons (5 precampaign and 2 campaign seasons using negative binomial regression and rate difference methods. Age-stratified analyses compared the incidence of emergency department (ED visits and hospitalizations attributable to influenza. RESULTS: During precampaign seasons, estimated ED visit rates attributable to influenza were 12.39 (95% CI: 10.34-14.44 per 1000 Knox children aged 5-17 years and similar in Knox-surrounding counties. During the campaign seasons, annual Knox influenza-associated ED visit rates declined relative to rates in Knox-surrounding counties: rate ratios 0.55 (95% CI: 0.27-0.83 and 0.70 (95% CI: 0.56-0.84 for the first and second campaign seasons, respectively. Overall, there were about 35% or 4.86 per 1000 fewer influenza-associated ED visits among Knox County children aged 5-17 years attributable to the campaign. No significant declines in Knox compared to surrounding counties were detected for influenza associated ED visits in children aged <5 years, all adults combined or selected adult age subgroups, although power for these analyses was limited. Alternate rate-difference analyses yielded consistent results. CONCLUSION: Vaccination of approximately 45% of Knox school-aged children with

  14. Effectiveness of the influenza a(H1N1)PDM09 vaccine in adults recommended for annual influenza vaccination : A case-control study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gefenaite, Giedre; Tacken, Margot; Bos, Jens; Stirbu-Wagner, Irina; Korevaar, Joke C.; Stolk, Ronald P.; Wolters, Bert; Bijl, Marc; Postma, Maarten J.; Wilschut, Jan; Nichol, Kristin L.; Hak, Eelko

    2012-01-01

    Background: Because of variability in published A(H1N1)pdm09 influenza vaccine effectiveness estimates, we aimed to assess the effectiveness of MF59-adjuvanted A(H1N1)pdm09 vaccine in a matched case-control study. Objectives: We aimed to assess the effectiveness of MF59- adjuvanted A(H1N1)pdm09 infl

  15. Lessons from the epidemiological surveillance program, during the influenza A (H1N1 virus epidemic, in a reference university hospital of Southeastern Brazil Lições aprendidas pelo programa de vigilância epidemiológica, durante a epidemia pelo vírus da influenza A (H1N1, em um hospital universitário na região sudeste do Brasil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Luiza Moretti

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: The case definition of influenza-like illness (ILI is a powerful epidemiological tool during influenza epidemics. METHODS: A prospective cohort study was conducted to evaluate the impact of two definitions used as epidemiological tools, in adults and children, during the influenza A H1N1 epidemic. Patients were included if they had upper respiratory samples tested for influenza by real-time reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction during two periods, using the ILI definition (coughing + temperature > 38ºC in period 1, and the definition of severe acute respiratory infection (ARS (coughing + temperature > 38ºC and dyspnoea in period 2. RESULTS: The study included 366 adults and 147 children, covering 243 cases of ILI and 270 cases of ARS. Laboratory confirmed cases of influenza were higher in adults (50% than in children (21.6% ( p INTRODUÇÃO: A definição de síndrome gripal é uma ferramenta epidemiológica importante durante epidemias de influenza. MÉTODOS: Foi conduzido estudo de coorte prospectivo para avaliar o impacto das definições de síndrome gripal (SG e doença respiratória aguda grave (DRAG como ferramenta de vigilância epidemiológica, em adultos e crianças, durante a epidemia de influenza A H1N1. Os pacientes foram incluídos se tivessem coleta de secreção respiratória alta testada por PCR real time para o vírus da influenza. Os dados clínicos e epidemiológicos foram estudados comparando-se dois períodos: período 1: SG (tosse + temperatura > 38ºC, e período 2: DRAG (tosse + temperatura > 38 e dispnéia. RESULTADOS: Foram incluídos 366 adultos e 147 crianças, em um total de 243 casos de SG e 270 DRAG. A confirmação laboratorial de influenza em adultos (50% foi significativamente maior do que em crianças (21,6% (p < 0,0001 e a definição de SG foi mais confirmatória de infecção por influenza (53% do que DRAG (24,4% (p < 0,0001. Adultos referiam mais calafrios e mialgias do que as

  16. Influenza in het seizoen 1993-94; vaccinsamenstelling voor het seizoen 1994-95.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    E.C.J. Claas (Eric); J.C. de Jong (Jan); A.I.M. Bartelds (Aad); J.K. van Wijngaarden; N. Masurel (Nic); A.D.M.E. Osterhaus (Albert)

    1994-01-01

    textabstractThe influenza season 1993/'94 in the Netherlands and the rest of Northwestern Europe was marked by an influenza A/H3N2 epidemic. The morbidity of this epidemic was moderate, but a high mortality rate was observed. The epidemic viruses, represented by A/Netherlands/241/93 (H3N2), were cha

  17. Comparison of Influenza Outbreaks in the Republic of Kazakhstan and Russia Induced by 2009 Yearly New Variant of A(H1N1)Influenza Virus

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Karpova L S; Ospanov K S; Baiserkin B S; Boibosinov E U; Popovtseva N M; Stolyarova T P; Stolyarov K A; Mamadaliyev S M; Khairullin B M; Sandybayev N T; Kydyrbayev Zh K; Orynbayev M B

    2011-01-01

    The aim of the work is the comparison of the epidemiology of influenza and acute respiratory virus infections(ARVI)in the Republic of Kazakhstan with the corresponding influenza epidemic in Russia induced by influenza pandemic virus A/California/07/2009 in 2009. Data on influenza and ARVI from the Republic of Kazakhstan and Federal Center of influenza was collected and investigated over the course of several weeks from hospitalized patients with the same diagnosis among all population and in age groups on 16 territories of Kazakhstan and in 49 major cities of Russia. The epidemic in Kazakhstan resembled the Russian epidemic in terms of its abnormally early beginning,expression of monoaetiology,the spread of the epidemic into all territories and start of the epidemics among adult population. High percentage of hospitalized people and lethal outcome were registered in this epidemic. Similarity of epidemic process character in corresponding border-line territories of both countries was found out.

  18. 流感病毒的变异及其引发流行的预防%The prevention of the epidemic of influenza caused by varied influenza virus

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    卢亦愚

    2005-01-01

    流行性感冒(influenza)简称流感,是由流感病毒(influenza virus)引起的急性呼吸道传染病.该病传染性强,传播快,常发生爆发、流行或世界性大流行,是迄今尚未能达到有效控制的世界性传染病,对人类健康,甚至对社会稳定产生重大影响,危害极大.

  19. Seasonal influenza activity for 2005-2006 season seems to be ending in most European countries.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Paget, W.J.; Meijer, A.; Falcao, J.M.; Jong, J.C. de; Kyncl, J.; Meerhoff, T.J.; Meuwissen, L.E.; Nicoll, A.; Velden, J. van der

    2006-01-01

    During the 2005-2006 season, seasonal influenza epidemics started late in countries across Europe. Clinical influenza activity has only reached moderate levels and has mainly been associated with influenza B viruses. There has been co-circulation of influenza A and B viruses in many countries, and i

  20. Design of the Dutch prevention of influenza, surveillance and management (PRISMA) study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hak, E; van Loon, S; Buskens, E; van Essen, G A; de Bakker, D; Tacken, M A J B; van Hout, B A; Grobbee, D E; Verheij, Th J M

    2003-01-01

    Rationale and design of a study on the cost-effectiveness of the Dutch influenza vaccination campaign are described. During two influenza epidemics, about 75,000 primary care patients recommended for influenza vaccination are included. Cases have fatal or non-fatal influenza, pneumonia, otitis media

  1. Design of the Dutch prevention of influenza, surveillance and management (PRISMA) study.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hak, E.; Loon, S. van; Buskens, E.; Essen, G.A. van; Bakker, D. de; Tacken, M.A.J.B.; Hout, B.A. van; Grobbee, D.E.; Verheij, T.J.M.

    2003-01-01

    Rationale and design of a study on the cost-effectiveness of the Dutch influenza vaccination campaign are described. During two influenza epidemics, about 75,000 primary care patients recommended for influenza vaccination are included. Cases have fatal or non-fatal influenza, pneumonia, otitis media

  2. Investigation of influenza in migrating birds, the primordial reservoir and transmitters of influenza in Brazil Investigação de influenza em aves migratórias, principal reservatório e transporte de influenza no Brasil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adélia Hiroko Nagamori Kawamoto

    2005-03-01

    Full Text Available Birds are the most important reservoirs of the influenza virus. Its maintenance in its natural hosts, including man, allows the influenza virus to reassorts its strains. The recent report of an avian influenza A (H5N1 virus in humans, was in a child with fatal respiratory illness in China, 1997. The current study was conducted to elucidate the transportation of the influenza by birds that migrate, annually, through the both Northern and Southern hemispheres, with special attention paid to the Vireo olivaceus [Juruviara(BR or Red-eyed vireo(USA] species, which travels from the USA to Brazil, and vice versa, and the Elaenia mesoleuca [Tuque(BR or (USA] species that flies over the entire Southern Hemisphere. There are two species of birds, which breed and migrate in São Paulo State, Brazil, and which were demonstrated to carry Influenza virus, were selected. The viral particles isolated were observed by electron microscopy. The influenza virus was detected by the House Duplex/PCR and Gloria molecular biology tests. The results demonstrated that the Elaenia mesoleuca and Vireo olivaceus bird species are carrying the Influenza virus whilst crossing both the Northern and Southern hemispheres. To understand the role that these migrating birds may play in epidemic influenza, in Brazil, characterization of avian influenza subtypes will be done.Os mais importantes reservatórios do vírus influenza são os pássaros. A manutenção do vírus influenza em hospedeiros naturais, inclusive o homem, permite que esse vírus realize rearranjos entre as suas cepas. O recente relato de uma cepa influenza aviária A(H5N1, em humanos, se deu em uma criança com doença respiratória fatal, na China em 1977. O presente estudo foi conduzido para elucidar o transporte da influenza por pássaros que migram, anualmente, através de ambos hemisférios o do Norte e do Sul, com especial atenção voltada à espécies Vireo olivaceo [Juruviara(BR e Red-eyed vireo(USA] que

  3. Influenza and bacterial pneumonia - constant companions

    OpenAIRE

    Wunderink, Richard G.

    2010-01-01

    Sequential or concomitant influenza and bacterial pneumonia are two common syndromes seen in community-acquired pneumonia. Inadequacies of diagnostic testing make separating simple pneumonia with either bacteria or influenza from concomitant or sequential influenza with both microorganisms difficult, although the novel 2009 H1N1 epidemic may improve the availability of molecular testing for viruses. Given the frequency of viral pneumonia and diagnostic limitations, empirical antivirals may be...

  4. Epidemia de influenza A(H1N1 en la Argentina: Experiencia del Hospital Nacional Profesor Alejandro Posadas Influenza A(H1N1 epidemic in Argentina: Experience in a National General Hospital (Hospital Nacional Profesor Alejandro Posadas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available Se describe la preparación y la atención médica durante la epidemia de influenza A(H1N1 (junio 2009 en un hospital general de agudos, público, de alta complejidad; con diagnóstico de laboratorio, internación general y cuidados intensivos (UCI. Se elaboró un plan para aumentar la capacidad asistencial, reasignar recursos y garantizar la bioseguridad. La consulta fue 7.1 ± 3.8 veces mayor que en 2006-2008. La detección de casos de A(H1N1 fue confirmada por PCR-RT en 186/486 (38.3% pacientes internados y en 56/176 (31.8% ambulatorios. Internados: mediana de edad 20 años; 75% menores de 45 y 32.3% menores de 15. Mortalidad global: 6.8%; 9.1% en los positivos. Adultos: recepción en un área de atención ambulatoria, internación (aislamiento y ventilación mecánica. Sala general: ingresaron 110 pacientes (5 veces más que 1999-2006 con saturación de oxígeno The preparation and medical care during the influenza A(H1N1 outbreak (June 2009 in a high complexity level, public, general hospital with laboratory diagnosis, general and intensive care (ICU hospitalization is described. A plan was designed to increase the hospital's surge capacity, reallocate resources and guarantee bio-safety. The number of consultations was 7.1 ± 3.8 times higher than during June 2006-2008. Detection of A(H1N1 cases were confirmed by PCR-RT in 186/486 (38.3% in-patients and 56/176 (31.8% out-patients. Median age among in-patients was 20 years; 75% < 45 and 32.3% < 15. Global mortality: 6.8%; 9.1% among confirmed cases. Adults were directed to a reception area of out-patient care, hospitalization (isolation and mechanical ventilation. General ward: 110 patients with oxygen saturation < 96% and/or risk factors (65.5% had asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, obesity, pregnancy or other were admitted (5 times more than in 1999-2006. Chest X-ray showed lung infiltrates and/or lung consolidation in 97.3%. Severe hypoxemia: 43.5%. There were no significant

  5. Temporal Patterns of Influenza A and B in Tropical and Temperate Countries: What Are the Lessons for Influenza Vaccination?

    OpenAIRE

    S Caini; Andrade, W; S Badur; Balmaseda, A.; A. Barakat; A Bella; Bimohuen, A.; Brammer, L; J Bresee; Bruno, A; Castillo, L.; Ciblak, M.A.; Clara, A.W.; C Cohen; Cutter, J

    2016-01-01

    Introduction Determining the optimal time to vaccinate is important for influenza vaccination programmes. Here, we assessed the temporal characteristics of influenza epidemics in the Northern and Southern hemispheres and in the tropics, and discuss their implications for vaccination programmes. Methods This was a retrospective analysis of surveillance data between 2000 and 2014 from the Global Influenza B Study database. The seasonal peak of influenza was defined as the week with the most rep...

  6. Temporal patterns of influenza A and B in tropical and temperate countries: what are the lessons for influenza vaccination?

    OpenAIRE

    Saverio Caini; Winston Andrade; Selim Badur; Angel Balmaseda; Amal Barakat; Antonino Bella; Abderrahman Bimohuen; Lynnette Brammer; Joseph Bresee; Alfredo Bruno; Leticia Castillo; Ciblak, Meral A.; Alexey W Clara; Cheryl Cohen; Jeffery Cutter

    2016-01-01

    Introduction Determining the optimal time to vaccinate is important for influenza vaccination programmes. Here, we assessed the temporal characteristics of influenza epidemics in the Northern and Southern hemispheres and in the tropics, and discuss their implications for vaccination programmes. Methods This was a retrospective analysis of surveillance data between 2000 and 2014 from the Global Influenza B Study database. The seasonal peak of influenza was defined as the week with the most rep...

  7. Avian influenza outbreak management: action at time of confirmation, depopulation and disposal methods; the 'Belgian experience' during the H7N7 highly pathogenic avian influenza epidemic in 2003.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van den Berg, T; Houdart, P

    2008-01-01

    Eradication of H5 and H7 influenza in a positive flock will include mass depopulation of birds, containment and inactivation of the virus in the carcasses and litter, and decontamination of the facility. A quick response is desired in the event of a disease outbreak. Ideally, birds should be depopulated within 24 h after detecting the virus. Mass depopulation of birds must be performed in a humane manner while minimizing human health and biosecurity risks. In the framework of the European legislation, a number of methods are authorized for the killing of poultry for processing prior to marketing. However, during emergencies such as a disease outbreak, there are fewer options. The current most commonly used procedures for large-scale emergency depopulation of birds consist of exposing poultry to CO or CO(2) gas. Both gasses have been used in Belgium during the H7N7 crisis in 2003. The gassing procedures include whole house gassing, portable panel enclosures, cage cabinets, containers and polyethylene tent method. Whole house gassing requires sealing the house to prevent gas leakage and, using specialized equipment, introducing large volumes of gas evenly over the birds. All procedures are very labour intensive, create a biosecurity risk and require a large number of personnel. There are considerable region-to-region differences in emergency depopulation techniques and disposal of carcasses and infected material. Because of the differences in bird type and species, management, housing and stocking density, it is difficult to propose a depopulation technique that will be suitable for all circumstances. Safety of the human operators is an increasing concern with all H5 and H7 strains and in particular with the highly pathogenic H5N1 strain. Researchers and commercial poultry companies in the United States recently established that non-toxic water-based foam with a certain bubble size presents a practicable, effective and humane method for mass depopulation. Foam of the

  8. siRNA for Influenza Therapy

    OpenAIRE

    Sailen Barik

    2010-01-01

    Influenza virus is one of the most prevalent and ancient infections in humans. About a fifth of world's population is infected by influenza virus annually, leading to high morbidity and mortality, particularly in infants, the elderly and the immunocompromised. In the US alone, influenza outbreaks lead to roughly 30,000 deaths each year. Current vaccines and anti-influenza drugs are of limited use due to high mutation rate of the virus and side effects. In recent years, RNA interference, trigg...

  9. Influenza Photos

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Polio Whooping cough Influenza (flu) Rabies Yellow fever Influenza Photos Photographs accompanied by text that reads "Courtesy ... of these photos are quite graphic. Shows how influenza germs spread through the air when someone coughs ...

  10. Epidemics: Lessons from the past and current patterns of response

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, Paul

    2008-09-01

    Hippocrates gave the term 'epidemic' its medical meaning. From antiquity to modern times, the meaning of the word epidemic has continued to evolve. Over the centuries, researchers have reached an understanding of the varying aspects of epidemics and have tried to combat them. The role played by travel, trade, and human exchanges in the propagation of epidemic infectious diseases has been understood. In 1948, the World Health Organization was created and given the task of advancing ways of combating epidemics. An early warning system to combat epidemics has been implemented by the WHO. The Global Outbreak Alert and Response Network (GOARN) is collaboration between existing institutions and networks that pool their human and technical resources to fight outbreaks. Avian influenza constitutes currently the most deadly epidemic threat, with fears that it could rapidly reach pandemic proportions and put several thousands of lives in jeopardy. Thanks to the WHO's support, most of the world's countries have mobilised and implemented an 'Action Plan for Pandemic Influenza'. As a result, most outbreaks of the H5N1 avian flu virus have so far been speedily contained. Cases of dengue virus introduction in countries possessing every circumstance required for its epidemic spread provide another example pertinent to the prevention of epidemics caused by vector-borne pathogens.

  11. On the epidemiology of influenza

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Scragg Robert

    2008-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract The epidemiology of influenza swarms with incongruities, incongruities exhaustively detailed by the late British epidemiologist, Edgar Hope-Simpson. He was the first to propose a parsimonious theory explaining why influenza is, as Gregg said, "seemingly unmindful of traditional infectious disease behavioral patterns." Recent discoveries indicate vitamin D upregulates the endogenous antibiotics of innate immunity and suggest that the incongruities explored by Hope-Simpson may be secondary to the epidemiology of vitamin D deficiency. We identify – and attempt to explain – nine influenza conundrums: (1 Why is influenza both seasonal and ubiquitous and where is the virus between epidemics? (2 Why are the epidemics so explosive? (3 Why do they end so abruptly? (4 What explains the frequent coincidental timing of epidemics in countries of similar latitude? (5 Why is the serial interval obscure? (6 Why is the secondary attack rate so low? (7 Why did epidemics in previous ages spread so rapidly, despite the lack of modern transport? (8 Why does experimental inoculation of seronegative humans fail to cause illness in all the volunteers? (9 Why has influenza mortality of the aged not declined as their vaccination rates increased? We review recent discoveries about vitamin D's effects on innate immunity, human studies attempting sick-to-well transmission, naturalistic reports of human transmission, studies of serial interval, secondary attack rates, and relevant animal studies. We hypothesize that two factors explain the nine conundrums: vitamin D's seasonal and population effects on innate immunity, and the presence of a subpopulation of "good infectors." If true, our revision of Edgar Hope-Simpson's theory has profound implications for the prevention of influenza.

  12. Temporal Patterns of Influenza A and B in Tropical and Temperate Countries: What Are the Lessons for Influenza Vaccination?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caini, Saverio; Andrade, Winston; Badur, Selim; Balmaseda, Angel; Barakat, Amal; Bella, Antonino; Bimohuen, Abderrahman; Brammer, Lynnette; Bresee, Joseph; Bruno, Alfredo; Castillo, Leticia; Ciblak, Meral A.; Clara, Alexey W.; Cohen, Cheryl; Cutter, Jeffery; Daouda, Coulibaly; de Lozano, Celina; De Mora, Domenica; Dorji, Kunzang; Emukule, Gideon O.; Fasce, Rodrigo A.; Feng, Luzhao; Ferreira de Almeida, Walquiria Aparecida; Guiomar, Raquel; Heraud, Jean-Michel; Holubka, Olha; Huang, Q. Sue; Kadjo, Herve A.; Kiyanbekova, Lyazzat; Kosasih, Herman; Kusznierz, Gabriela; Lara, Jenny; Li, Ming; Lopez, Liza; Mai Hoang, Phuong Vu; Pessanha Henriques, Cláudio Maierovitch; Matute, Maria Luisa; Mironenko, Alla; Moreno, Brechla; Mott, Joshua A.; Njouom, Richard; Nurhayati; Ospanova, Akerke; Owen, Rhonda; Pebody, Richard; Pennington, Kate; Puzelli, Simona; Quynh Le, Mai thi; Razanajatovo, Norosoa Harline; Rodrigues, Ana; Rudi, Juan Manuel; Tzer Pin Lin, Raymond; Venter, Marietjie; Vernet, Marie-Astrid; Wangchuk, Sonam; Yang, Juan; Yu, Hongjie; Zambon, Maria; Schellevis, François; Paget, John

    2016-01-01

    Introduction Determining the optimal time to vaccinate is important for influenza vaccination programmes. Here, we assessed the temporal characteristics of influenza epidemics in the Northern and Southern hemispheres and in the tropics, and discuss their implications for vaccination programmes. Methods This was a retrospective analysis of surveillance data between 2000 and 2014 from the Global Influenza B Study database. The seasonal peak of influenza was defined as the week with the most reported cases (overall, A, and B) in the season. The duration of seasonal activity was assessed using the maximum proportion of influenza cases during three consecutive months and the minimum number of months with ≥80% of cases in the season. We also assessed whether co-circulation of A and B virus types affected the duration of influenza epidemics. Results 212 influenza seasons and 571,907 cases were included from 30 countries. In tropical countries, the seasonal influenza activity lasted longer and the peaks of influenza A and B coincided less frequently than in temperate countries. Temporal characteristics of influenza epidemics were heterogeneous in the tropics, with distinct seasonal epidemics observed only in some countries. Seasons with co-circulation of influenza A and B were longer than influenza A seasons, especially in the tropics. Discussion Our findings show that influenza seasonality is less well defined in the tropics than in temperate regions. This has important implications for vaccination programmes in these countries. High-quality influenza surveillance systems are needed in the tropics to enable decisions about when to vaccinate. PMID:27031105

  13. Global influenza surveillance with Laplacian multidimensional scaling

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Xi-chuan ZHOU; Fang TANG; Qin LI; Sheng-dong HU; Guo-jun LI; Yun-jian JIA; Xin-ke LI; Yu-jie FENG

    2016-01-01

    The Global Influenza Surveillance Network is crucial for monitoring epidemic risk in participating countries. However, at present, the network has notable gaps in the developing world, principally in Africa and Asia where laboratory capabilities are limited. Moreover, for the last few years, various influenza viruses have been continuously emerging in the resource-limited countries, making these surveillance gaps a more imminent challenge. We present a spatial-transmission model to estimate epidemic risks in the countries where only partial or even no surveillance data are available. Motivated by the observation that countries in the same influenza transmission zone divided by the World Health Organization had similar transmission patterns, we propose to estimate the influenza epidemic risk of an unmonitored country by incorporating the surveillance data reported by countries of the same transmission zone. Experiments show that the risk estimates are highly correlated with the actual influenza morbidity trends for African and Asian countries. The proposed method may provide the much-needed capability to detect, assess, and notify potential influenza epidemics to the developing world.

  14. Spatial distribution and risk factors of influenza in Jiangsu province, China, based on geographical information system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jia-Cheng Zhang

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Influenza poses a constant, heavy burden on society. Recent research has focused on ecological factors associated with influenza incidence and has also studied influenza with respect to its geographic spread at different scales. This research explores the temporal and spatial parameters of influenza and identifies factors influencing its transmission. A spatial autocorrelation analysis, a spatial-temporal cluster analysis and a spatial regression analysis of influenza rates, carried out in Jiangsu province from 2004 to 2011, found that influenza rates to be spatially dependent in 2004, 2005, 2006 and 2008. South-western districts consistently revealed hotspots of high-incidence influenza. The regression analysis indicates that railways, rivers and lakes are important predictive environmental variables for influenza risk. A better understanding of the epidemic pattern and ecological factors associated with pandemic influenza should benefit public health officials with respect to prevention and controlling measures during future epidemics.

  15. Spatial distribution and risk factors of influenza in Jiangsu province, China, based on geographical information system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Jia-Cheng; Liu, Wen-Dong; Liang, Qi; Hu, Jian-Li; Norris, Jessie; Wu, Ying; Bao, Chang-Jun; Tang, Fen-Yang; Huang, Peng; Zhao, Yang; Yu, Rong-Bin; Zhou, Ming-Hao; Shen, Hong-Bing; Chen, Feng; Peng, Zhi-Hang

    2014-05-01

    Influenza poses a constant, heavy burden on society. Recent research has focused on ecological factors associated with influenza incidence and has also studied influenza with respect to its geographic spread at different scales. This research explores the temporal and spatial parameters of influenza and identifies factors influencing its transmission. A spatial autocorrelation analysis, a spatial-temporal cluster analysis and a spatial regression analysis of influenza rates, carried out in Jiangsu province from 2004 to 2011, found that influenza rates to be spatially dependent in 2004, 2005, 2006 and 2008. South-western districts consistently revealed hotspots of high-incidence influenza. The regression analysis indicates that railways, rivers and lakes are important predictive environmental variables for influenza risk. A better understanding of the epidemic pattern and ecological factors associated with pandemic influenza should benefit public health officials with respect to prevention and controlling measures during future epidemics.

  16. Effectiveness of influenza vaccination for preventing influenza-related complications in people with asthma:A systematic review protocol

    OpenAIRE

    Vasileiou, Eleftheria; Sheikh, Aziz; Butler, Chris; von Wissmann, Beatrix; McMenamin, Jim; Ritchie, Lewis; Tian, Lilly; Simpson, Colin

    2016-01-01

    Introduction: Influenza vaccination is administered annually as a preventive measure against influenza infection and influenza-related complications in highrisk individuals, such as those with asthma. However, the effectiveness of influenza vaccination in people with asthma against influenza-related complications is still not well established. Methods and analysis: We will search the following databases: MEDLINE (Ovid), EMBASE (Ovid), Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (...

  17. Effectiveness of influenza vaccination for preventing influenza-related complications in people with asthma: a systematic review protocol

    OpenAIRE

    Vasileiou, Eleftheria; Sheikh, Aziz; Butler, Chris; von Wissmann, Beatrix; McMenamin, Jim; Ritchie, Lewis; Tian, Lilly; Simpson, Colin

    2016-01-01

    Introduction Influenza vaccination is administered annually as a preventive measure against influenza infection and influenza-related complications in high-risk individuals, such as those with asthma. However, the effectiveness of influenza vaccination in people with asthma against influenza-related complications is still not well established. Methods and analysis We will search the following databases: MEDLINE (Ovid), EMBASE (Ovid), Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (C...

  18. La influenza, un problema vigente de salud pública Influenza, an existing public health problem

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juan García-García

    2006-06-01

    particular, during winter months and having an elevated effect on public health worldwide. The disease has high morbidity rates for people of all ages and particularly high mortality rates for children, adults over 60 years old, patients with chronic illnesses and pregnant women. Prevention control strategies include vaccination using inactivated, subunit or genetically modified virus vaccines. Influenza in humans is caused by two subtypes of influenza virus A and one of influenza virus B. The influenza virus A that affects humans mutates easily, thereby often causing new antigenic variants of each subtype to emerge, requiring the inclusion of such variants in annual vaccines in order to assure proper immunization of the population. The influenza pandemic refers to the introduction and later worldwide spread of a new influenza virus in the human population, which occurs sporadically. Due to the lack of immunity in humans against the new virus, serious epidemics can be provoked resulting in high morbidity and mortality rates. Historically, influenza pandemics are a result of the transmission of the virus from birds to humans, or the transfer of such genes to seasonal influenza. Wild waterfowl -both migratory and shore birds- carry a large diversity of influenza virus subtypes, which are eventually transmitted to domestic birds. Some of those viruses cross the species barrier and infect mammals, including humans. The adaptation process of the avian virus to mammal hosts requires time. Therefore, the presentation of these cases can take several years. Since December 2003, in several Southeast Asian countries a large proportion of domestic birds have been affected by an avian influenza epidemic (subtype H5N1. By Februrary 2006, the epidemic had already affected countries in Europe and Africa, having a significant economic impact on commercial poultry due to the more than 180 million birds that were sacrificed. Some strains of this avian influenza virus have directly, although

  19. Do recommended high-risk adults benefit from a first influenza vaccination?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hak, E; Buskens, E; Nichol, K L; Verheij, T J M

    2006-01-01

    It is unknown whether a first influenza vaccination protects high-risk adults from severe morbidity and mortality during influenza epidemics. As part of the PRISMA nested case-control study, we aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of first-time and repeat influenza vaccinations in adult persons recom

  20. Compounds with anti-influenza activity: present and future of strategies for the optimal treatment and management of influenza. Part I: Influenza life-cycle and currently available drugs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gasparini, R; Amicizia, D; Lai, P L; Bragazzi, N L; Panatto, D

    2014-09-01

    Influenza is a contagious respiratory acute viral disease characterized by a short incubation period, high fever and respiratory and systemic symptoms. The burden of influenza is very heavy. Indeed, the World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that annual epidemics affect 5-15% of the world's population, causing up to 4-5 million severe cases and from 250,000 to 500,000 deaths. In order to design anti-influenza molecules and compounds, it is important to understand the complex replication cycle of the influenza virus. Replication is achieved through various stages. First, the virus must engage the sialic acid receptors present on the free surface of the cells of the respiratory tract. The virus can then enter the cells by different routes (clathrin-mediated endocytosis or CME, caveolae-dependent endocytosis or CDE, clathrin-caveolae-independent endocytosis, or macropinocytosis). CME is the most usual pathway; the virus is internalized into an endosomal compartment, from which it must emerge in order to release its nucleic acid into the cytosol. The ribonucleoprotein must then reach the nucleus in order to begin the process of translation of its genes and to transcribe and replicate its nucleic acid. Subsequently, the RNA segments, surrounded by the nucleoproteins, must migrate to the cell membrane in order to enable viral assembly. Finally, the virus must be freed to invade other cells of the respiratory tract. All this is achieved through a synchronized action of molecules that perform multiple enzymatic and catalytic reactions, currently known only in part, and for which many inhibitory or competitive molecules have been studied. Some of these studies have led to the development of drugs that have been approved, such as Amantadine, Rimantadine, Oseltamivir, Zanamivir, Peramivir, Laninamivir, Ribavirin and Arbidol. This review focuses on the influenza life-cycle and on the currently available drugs, while potential antiviral compounds for the prevention and

  1. Containing pandemic influenza with antiviral agents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Longini, Ira M; Halloran, M Elizabeth; Nizam, Azhar; Yang, Yang

    2004-04-01

    For the first wave of pandemic influenza or a bioterrorist influenza attack, antiviral agents would be one of the few options to contain the epidemic in the United States until adequate supplies of vaccine were available. The authors use stochastic epidemic simulations to investigate the effectiveness of targeted antiviral prophylaxis to contain influenza. In this strategy, close contacts of suspected index influenza cases take antiviral agents prophylactically. The authors compare targeted antiviral prophylaxis with vaccination strategies. They model an influenza pandemic or bioterrorist attack for an agent similar to influenza A virus (H2N2) that caused the Asian influenza pandemic of 1957-1958. In the absence of intervention, the model predicts an influenza illness attack rate of 33% of the population (95% confidence interval (CI): 30, 37) and an influenza death rate of 0.58 deaths/1,000 persons (95% Cl: 0.4, 0.8). With the use of targeted antiviral prophylaxis, if 80% of the exposed persons maintained prophylaxis for up to 8 weeks, the epidemic would be contained, and the model predicts a reduction to an illness attack rate of 2% (95% Cl: 0.2, 16) and a death rate of 0.04 deaths/1,000 persons (95% CI: 0.0003, 0.25). Such antiviral prophylaxis is nearly as effective as vaccinating 80% of the population. Vaccinating 80% of the children aged less than 19 years is almost as effective as vaccinating 80% of the population. Targeted antiviral prophylaxis has potential as an effective measure for containing influenza until adequate quantities of vaccine are available.

  2. Orally Administered Salacia reticulata Extract Reduces H1N1 Influenza Clinical Symptoms in Murine Lung Tissues Putatively Due to Enhanced Natural Killer Cell Activity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romero-Pérez, Gustavo A; Egashira, Masayo; Harada, Yuri; Tsuruta, Takeshi; Oda, Yuriko; Ueda, Fumitaka; Tsukahara, Takamitsu; Tsukamoto, Yasuhiro; Inoue, Ryo

    2016-01-01

    Influenza is a major cause of respiratory tract infection. Although most cases do not require further hospitalization, influenza periodically causes epidemics in humans that can potentially infect and kill millions of people. To countermeasure this threat, new vaccines need to be developed annually to match emerging influenza viral strains with increased resistance to existing vaccines. Thus, there is a need for finding and developing new anti-influenza viral agents as alternatives to current treatments. Here, we tested the antiviral effects of an extract from the stems and roots of Salacia reticulata (SSRE), a plant rich in phytochemicals, such as salacinol, kotalanol, and catechins, on H1N1 influenza virus-infected mice. Following oral administration of 0.6 mg/day of SSRE, the incidence of coughing decreased in 80% of mice, and only one case of severe pulmonary inflammation was detected. Moreover, when compared with mice given Lactobacillus casei JCM1134, a strain previously shown to help increase in vitro natural killer (NK) cell activity, SSRE-administered mice showed greater and equal NK cell activity in splenocytes and pulmonary cells, respectively, at high effector cell:target cell ratios. Next, to test whether or not SSRE would exert protective effects against influenza in the absence of gut microbiota, mice were given antibiotics before being inoculated influenza virus and subsequently administered SSRE. SSRE administration induced an increase in NK cell activity in splenocytes and pulmonary cells at levels similar to those detected in mice not treated with antibiotics. Based on our results, it can be concluded that phytochemicals in the SSRE exerted protective effects against influenza infection putatively via modulation of the immune response, including enhancement of NK cell activity, although some protective effects were not necessarily through modulation of gut microbiota. Further investigation is necessary to elucidate the molecular mechanisms

  3. Multi-spectral fluorescent reporter influenza viruses (Color-flu) as powerful tools for in vivo studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fukuyama, Satoshi; Katsura, Hiroaki; Zhao, Dongming; Ozawa, Makoto; Ando, Tomomi; Shoemaker, Jason E; Ishikawa, Izumi; Yamada, Shinya; Neumann, Gabriele; Watanabe, Shinji; Kitano, Hiroaki; Kawaoka, Yoshihiro

    2015-01-01

    Seasonal influenza A viruses cause annual epidemics of respiratory disease; highly pathogenic avian H5N1 and the recently emerged H7N9 viruses cause severe infections in humans, often with fatal outcomes. Although numerous studies have addressed the pathogenicity of influenza viruses, influenza pathogenesis remains incompletely understood. Here we generate influenza viruses expressing fluorescent proteins of different colours ('Color-flu' viruses) to facilitate the study of viral infection in in vivo models. On adaptation to mice, stable expression of the fluorescent proteins in infected animals allows their detection by different types of microscopy and by flow cytometry. We use this system to analyse the progression of viral spread in mouse lungs, for live imaging of virus-infected cells, and for differential gene expression studies in virus antigen-positive and virus antigen-negative live cells in the lungs of Color-flu-infected mice. Collectively, Color-flu viruses are powerful tools to analyse virus infections at the cellular level in vivo to better understand influenza pathogenesis. PMID:25807527

  4. Characterization of Influenza Vaccine Hemagglutinin Complexes by Cryo-Electron Microscopy and Image Analyses Reveals Structural Polymorphisms

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCraw, Dustin M.; Gallagher, John R.

    2016-01-01

    Influenza virus afflicts millions of people worldwide on an annual basis. There is an ever-present risk that animal viruses will cross the species barrier to cause epidemics and pandemics resulting in great morbidity and mortality. Zoonosis outbreaks, such as the H7N9 outbreak, underscore the need to better understand the molecular organization of viral immunogens, such as recombinant influenza virus hemagglutinin (HA) proteins, used in influenza virus subunit vaccines in order to optimize vaccine efficacy. Here, using cryo-electron microscopy and image analysis, we show that recombinant H7 HA in vaccines formed macromolecular complexes consisting of variable numbers of HA subunits (range, 6 to 8). In addition, HA complexes were distributed across at least four distinct structural classes (polymorphisms). Three-dimensional (3D) reconstruction and molecular modeling indicated that HA was in the prefusion state and suggested that the oligomerization and the structural polymorphisms observed were due to hydrophobic interactions involving the transmembrane regions. These experiments suggest that characterization of the molecular structures of influenza virus HA complexes used in subunit vaccines will lead to better understanding of the differences in vaccine efficacy and to the optimization of subunit vaccines to prevent influenza virus infection. PMID:27074939

  5. Scenario-ontwikkeling zorgvraag bij een influenza-pandemie

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Genugten MLL van; Heijnen MLA; Jager JC; CZO; CIE

    2001-01-01

    Another influenza pandemic, following the 1918, 1957 and the 1968 pandemic, is likely if not inevitable. In a 'regular' influenza-epidemic 5-20% of the population is to become clinically ill; during a pandemic this percentage can mount to 30 or even 50%. A pandemic could cause substantial social dis

  6. Influenza: A current medical problem

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bojić Ivanko

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction. Acute respiratory infections are the most common infections in the human population. Among them, virus infections, especially those caused by influenza viruses, have an important place. Type A influenza. Type A influenza virus caused three epidemics during the last century. A high percetage of deceased in pandemics of 1918, and 1919 were young, healthy persons, with many of the deaths due to an unusually severe, hemorrhagic pneumonia. At the end of 2003, and the beginning of 2004, an epidemic emerged in South East Asia of poultry influenza caused by animal (avian virus. Later it spread to the human population, with a high death rate of 73% and with a possibility of interhuman transmission. This review article provides an overview of the clinical manifestations, laboratory findings and chest radiographs. Apart from the symptomatic and supportive therapy, there are antiviral drugs and corticosteriods. Conclusion. The use of vaccine containing subtypes of virus hemagglutinins and neuraminidase from an influenza virus currently infecting the population has a great importance. .

  7. Influenza vaccination

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Østerhus, Sven Frederick

    2015-01-01

    The Cochrane Library was systematically searched for meta-analyses regarding influenza vaccination of various populations, both healthy and sick. An effect in reducing the number of cases of influenza, influenza-like illness or complications to influenza was found in some studies, but, generally,......, the quality of the studies was low, and several studies lacked hard clinical endpoints. Data on adverse effects were scarce. More randomised controlled trials investigating the effects of influenza vaccination are warranted.......The Cochrane Library was systematically searched for meta-analyses regarding influenza vaccination of various populations, both healthy and sick. An effect in reducing the number of cases of influenza, influenza-like illness or complications to influenza was found in some studies, but, generally...

  8. Avian influenza: The tip of the iceberg

    OpenAIRE

    Balkhy Hanan

    2008-01-01

    For some years now, we have been living with the fear of an impending pandemic of avian influenza (AI). Despite the recognition, in 1996, of the global threat posed by the highly pathogenic H5N1 influenza virus found in farmed geese in Guangdong Province, China, planning for the anticipated epidemic remains woefully inadequate; this is especially true in developing countries such as Saudi Arabia. These deficiencies became obvious in 1997, with the outbreak of AI in the live animal markets in...

  9. Influenza A Virus Entry Inhibitors Targeting the Hemagglutinin

    OpenAIRE

    Shuwen Liu; Jie Yang; Xintian Shen; Minmin Li

    2013-01-01

    Influenza A virus (IAV) has caused seasonal influenza epidemics and influenza pandemics, which resulted in serious threat to public health and socioeconomic impacts. Until now, only 5 drugs belong to two categories are used for prophylaxis and treatment of IAV infection. Hemagglutinin (HA), the envelope glycoprotein of IAV, plays a critical role in viral binding, fusion and entry. Therefore, HA is an attractive target for developing anti‑IAV drugs to block the entry step of IAV infection. Her...

  10. Adjuvants and immunization strategies to induce influenza virus hemagglutinin stalk antibodies.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter H Goff

    Full Text Available The global population remains vulnerable in the face of the next pandemic influenza virus outbreak, and reformulated vaccinations are administered annually to manage seasonal epidemics. Therefore, development of a new generation of vaccines is needed to generate broad and persistent immunity to influenza viruses. Here, we describe three adjuvants that enhance the induction of stalk-directed antibodies against heterologous and heterosubtypic influenza viruses when administered with chimeric HA proteins. Addavax, an MF59-like nanoemulsion, poly(I:C, and an RNA hairpin derived from Sendai virus (SeV Cantell were efficacious intramuscularly. The SeV RNA and poly(I:C also proved to be effective respiratory mucosal adjuvants. Although the quantity and quality of antibodies induced by the adjuvants varied, immunized mice demonstrated comparable levels of protection against challenge with influenza A viruses on the basis of HA stalk reactivity. Finally, we present that intranasally, but not intramuscularly, administered chimeric HA proteins induce mucosal IgA antibodies directed at the HA stalk.

  11. [Ethical principles of management and planning during influenza pandemic].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kubar', O I; Asatrian, A Zh

    2012-01-01

    The article is dedicated to an actual problem of ethical component inclusion into the system of management and planning of epidemic control measures during threat emergence and in the course of influenza pandemic (epidemic) progress. Data regarding development of international ethical guidelines during influenza including WHO recommendations are presented and analysis of normative documents in Russian Federation is given. A necessity of comprehension and accounting of ethical values in pandemic preparedness is shown, main directions of action and responsibility are revealed. Key ethical positions of planning and implementation of measures during influenza pandemic are outlined, compliance with those determines the level of public support and thus provides the effectiveness of the implemented measures.

  12. Epidemiology of Australian Influenza-Related Paediatric Intensive Care Unit Admissions, 1997-2013.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marlena C Kaczmarek

    Full Text Available Influenza virus predictably causes an annual epidemic resulting in a considerable burden of illness in Australia. Children are disproportionately affected and can experience severe illness and complications, which occasionally result in death.We conducted a retrospective descriptive study using data collated in the Australian and New Zealand Paediatric Intensive Care (ANZPIC Registry of influenza-related intensive care unit (ICU admissions over a 17-year period (1997-2013, inclusive in children <16 years old. National laboratory-confirmed influenza notifications were used for comparison.Between 1997 and 2013, a total of 704 influenza-related ICU admissions were recorded, at a rate of 6.2 per 1,000 all-cause ICU admissions. Age at admission ranged from 0 days and 15.9 years (median = 2.1 years, with 135 (19.2% aged <6 months. Pneumonia/pneumonitis and bronchiolitis were the most common primary diagnoses among influenza-related admissions (21.9% and 13.6%, respectively. More than half of total cases (59.2% were previously healthy (no co-morbidities recorded, and in the remainder, chronic lung disease (16.7% and asthma (12.5% were the most common co-morbidities recorded. Pathogen co-detection occurred in 24.7% of cases, most commonly with respiratory syncytial virus or a staphylococcal species. Median length of all ICU admissions was 3.2 days (range 2.0 hours- 107.4 days and 361 (51.3% admissions required invasive respiratory support for a median duration of 4.3 days (range 0.2 hours- 107.5 days. There were 27 deaths recorded, 14 (51.9% in children without a recorded co-morbidity.Influenza causes a substantial number of ICU admissions in Australian children each year with the majority occurring in previously healthy children.

  13. New small-molecule drug design strategies for fighting resistant influenza A

    OpenAIRE

    Zuyuan Shen; Kaiyan Lou; Wei Wang

    2015-01-01

    Influenza A virus is the major cause of seasonal or pandemic flu worldwide. Two main treatment strategies–vaccination and small molecule anti-influenza drugs are currently available. As an effective vaccine usually takes at least 6 months to develop, anti-influenza small molecule drugs are more effective for the first line of protection against the virus during an epidemic outbreak, especially in the early stage. Two major classes of anti-influenza drugs currently available are admantane-base...

  14. The neuropsychiatric aspects of influenza/swine flu: A selective review

    OpenAIRE

    Narayana Manjunatha; Suresh Bada Math; Girish Baburao Kulkarni; Santosh Kumar Chaturvedi

    2011-01-01

    The world witnessed the influenza virus during the seasonal epidemics and pandemics. The current strain of H1N1 (swine flu) pandemic is believed to be the legacy of the influenza pandemic (1918-19). The influenza virus has been implicated in many neuropsychiatric disorders. In view of the recent pandemic, it would be interesting to review the neuropsychiatric aspects of influenza, specifically swine flu. Author used popular search engine ′PUBMED′ to search for published articles with differen...

  15. Design of the Dutch prevention of influenza, surveillance and management (PRISMA) study.

    OpenAIRE

    Hak, E; Loon, S.; Buskens, E; van Essen, G. A.; Bakker, D.; Tacken, M.A.J.B.; van Hout, B.A.; Grobbee, D.E.; Verheij, T.J.M.

    2003-01-01

    Rationale and design of a study on the cost-effectiveness of the Dutch influenza vaccination campaign are described. During two influenza epidemics, about 75,000 primary care patients recommended for influenza vaccination are included. Cases have fatal or non-fatal influenza, pneumonia, otitis media, acute respiratory disease (ARD), heart failure, myocardial infarction, depression or diabetes dysregulation. Per case four controls are sampled, frequency matched on age and high-risk co-morbidit...

  16. Flu (Influenza)

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Skip Content Marketing Share this: Main Content Area Flu (Influenza) Overview Influenza, or flu, is a respiratory infection ... the flu and its complications every year. Seasonal Flu Seasonal flu refers to the flu outbreaks that ...

  17. Pandemic Influenza: A Never-Ending Story

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kageyama, Seiji

    2011-01-01

    A novel pandemic influenza emerged in 2009, something that hasn't been seen since 1977. The following issues will be introduced and discussed in this review: the history of influenza pandemics, the emergence of the novel pandemic influenza of 2009, epidemics in the southern and northern hemispheres after the recognition of index cases in the United States, mortality, viral characteristics, prevention in the household setting, clinical aspects, diagnosis, treatment and immunization. Some questions have been answered. However, a number of other questions remain. Scientific research must follow up on these unanswered questions. PMID:24031128

  18. Avian influenza

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bird flu; H5N1; H5N2; H5N8; H7N9; Avian influenza A (HPAI) H5 ... The first avian influenza in humans was reported in Hong Kong in 1997. It was called avian influenza (H5N1). The outbreak was linked ...

  19. 75 FR 48712 - Proposed Vaccine Information Materials for Influenza Vaccine

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-08-11

    ..., rotavirus, hepatitis A, meningococcal, human papillomavirus (HPV), and trivalent influenza vaccines.... People who got the 2009 H1N1 vaccine still need to get vaccinated with the 2010-2011 influenza vaccine... always changing. Because of this, influenza vaccines are updated every year, and an annual vaccination...

  20. Generation and Characterization of Recombinant Pandemic Influenza A(H1N1) Viruses Resistant to Neuraminidase Inhibitors

    OpenAIRE

    Pizzorno, Andrés; Bouhy, Xavier; Abed, Yacine; Boivin, Guy

    2011-01-01

    Background. Neuraminidase inhibitors (NAIs) play a key role in the management of influenza epidemics and pandemics. Given the novel pandemic influenza A(H1N1) (pH1N1) virus and the restricted number of approved anti-influenza drugs, evaluation of potential drug-resistant variants is of high priority.

  1. Influenza in Thailand: a case study for middle income countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simmerman, James Mark; Thawatsupha, Pranee; Kingnate, Darika; Fukuda, Keiji; Chaising, Arunee; Dowell, Scott F

    2004-11-25

    Recent studies in Hong Kong and Singapore suggest that the annual impact of influenza in these wealthy tropical cities may be substantial, but little is known about the burden in middle-income tropical countries. We reviewed the status of influenza surveillance, vaccination, research, and policy in Thailand as of January 2004. From 1993 to 2002, 64-91 cases of clinically diagnosed influenza were reported per 100,000 persons per year. Influenza viruses were isolated in 34% of 4305 specimens submitted to the national influenza laboratory. Vaccine distribution figures suggest that less than 1% of the population is immunized against influenza each year. In January 2004, Thailand reported its first documented outbreak of influenza A H5N1 infection in poultry and the country's first human cases of avian influenza. Thailand's growing economy, well-developed public health infrastructure, and effective national immunization program could enable the country to take more active steps towards influenza control.

  2. Avian influenza virus in pregnancy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Shelan; Sha, Jianping; Yu, Zhao; Hu, Yan; Chan, Ta-Chien; Wang, Xiaoxiao; Pan, Hao; Cheng, Wei; Mao, Shenghua; Zhang, Run Ju; Chen, Enfu

    2016-07-01

    The unprecedented epizootic of avian influenza viruses, such as H5N1, H5N6, H7N1 and H10N8, has continued to cause disease in humans in recent years. In 2013, another novel influenza A (H7N9) virus emerged in China, and 30% of those patients died. Pregnant women are particularly susceptible to avian influenza and are more likely to develop severe complications and to die, especially when infection occurs in the middle and late trimesters. Viremia is believed to occur infrequently, and thus vertical transmission induced by avian influenza appears to be rare. However, avian influenza increases the risk of adverse pregnancy outcomes, including spontaneous abortion, preterm birth and fatal distress. This review summarises 39 cases of pregnant women and their fetuses from different countries dating back to 1997, including 11, 15 and 13 infections with H7N9, H5N1 and the 2009 pandemic influenza (H1N1), respectively. We analysed the epidemic features, following the geographical, population and pregnancy trimester distributions; underlying diseases; exposure history; medical timelines; human-to-human transmission; pathogenicity and vertical transmission; antivirus treatments; maternal severity and mortality and pregnancy outcome. The common experiences reported in different countries and areas suggest that early identification and treatment are imperative. In the future, vigilant virologic and epidemiologic surveillance systems should be developed to monitor avian influenza viruses during pregnancy. Furthermore, extensive study on the immune mechanisms should be conducted, as this will guide safe, rational immunomodulatory treatment among this high-risk population. Most importantly, we should develop a universal avian influenza virus vaccine to prevent outbreaks of the different subtypes. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. PMID:27187752

  3. NNDSS - Table II. Giardiasis to Haemophilus influenza

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — NNDSS - Table II. Giardiasis to Haemophilus influenza - 2014. In this Table, all conditions with a 5-year average annual national total of more than or equals 1,000...

  4. Influenza and pneumococcal vaccination of the elderly in Taiwan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yeong-Hwang; Liou, Saou-Hsing; Chou, Chih-Chieh; Su, Wen-Lin; Loh, Ching-Hui; Lin, Shih-Ha

    2004-07-29

    In 1998, Taiwan became the first country in Asia to provide free influenza vaccination to high-risk groups, mainly the elderly. The purpose of this study is to determine: (1) the annual mortality rate from influenza and pneumococcal-related illnesses such as pneumonia, chronic bronchitis, pulmonary emphysema and asthma and (2) the effectiveness of and adverse events associated with the influenza vaccination. In the elderly, influenza vaccination caused the annual death rate due chronic bronchitis, pulmonary emphysema, and asthma to decline steadily but had no effect on the annual pneumonia death rate. The only adverse effect of concern was vertigo (in approximately 2-3%).

  5. Influenza infection and COPD

    OpenAIRE

    Mallia, Patrick; Johnston, Sebastian L.

    2007-01-01

    Influenza is a disease with global impact that causes enormous morbidity and mortality on an annual basis. It primarily infects the respiratory tract and causes a broad range of illness ranging from symptomless infection to fulminant primary viral and secondary bacterial pneumonia. The severity of infection depends on both the virus strain and a number of host factors, primarily age and the presence of comorbid conditions such as cardiopulmonary disease. The mortality and utilization of healt...

  6. Patient-based transcriptome-wide analysis identify interferon and ubiquination pathways as potential predictors of influenza A disease severity.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Long Truong Hoang

    Full Text Available The influenza A virus is an RNA virus that is responsible for seasonal epidemics worldwide with up to five million cases of severe illness and 500,000 deaths annually according to the World Health Organization estimates. The factors associated with severe diseases are not well defined, but more severe disease is more often seen among persons aged >65 years, infants, pregnant women, and individuals of any age with underlying health conditions.Using gene expression microarrays, the transcriptomic profiles of influenza-infected patients with severe (N = 11, moderate (N = 40 and mild (N = 83 symptoms were compared with the febrile patients of unknown etiology (N = 73. We found that influenza-infected patients, regardless of their clinical outcomes, had a stronger induction of antiviral and cytokine responses and a stronger attenuation of NK and T cell responses in comparison with those with unknown etiology. More importantly, we found that both interferon and ubiquitination signaling were strongly attenuated in patients with the most severe outcomes in comparison with those with moderate and mild outcomes, suggesting the protective roles of these pathways in disease pathogenesis.The attenuation of interferon and ubiquitination pathways may associate with the clinical outcomes of influenza patients.

  7. THE ANALYSIS OF EPIDEMIC FEATURES OF INFLUENZA IN FUJIAN FROM 2004-2008%福建省2004~2008年流行性感冒流行特征分析

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    李宏; 洪荣涛; 黄文龙; 谢忠杭; 陈菁; 向建军

    2011-01-01

    [Objective] To master the prevalent status of the influenza in Fujian Province during the recent years, judge the tendency of development of the disease, and make recommendations for the prevention and controlling the diseases. [Methods] The epidemiological data mainly came from influenza cases during 2004-2008 and demographic basic information in the China Disease Prevention and Control Information. [Results] From 2004 to 2008, the overall incidence rate of the influenza in Fujian Province was 2.22/10 million, no deaths were reported, the incidence rose by year, the cases were found intensively from March to April and from November to December. The differences of sexual incidence were not obvious. The incidence rate of 0-10 age group was highest. The students group occupied the highest proportion of the influenza cases. [Conclusion] Fujian influenza incidence has gradually increased in recent years, we must enhance the monitoring to the high-risk population in areas of high and the rapid rising incidence rate.%[目的]掌握福建省流行性感冒的流行特征,判断疾病发展的态势,为防治疾病提出建议和对策.[方法]疫情资料主要来源于中国疾病预防控制信息系统2004~2008年流行性感冒个案卡的信息和人口基本信息.[结果]2004~2008年福建省流行性感冒年平均发病率为2.22/10万,未报告死亡病例,疫情逐年上升,发病集中在3~4月和11~12月,性别间发病率差异不大.0~10岁年龄组高发,发病比例最高的为学生.[结论]福建省流行性感冒发病率近年有逐渐升高的趋势,应加强对高发地区和发病率上升较快地区的高危人群的监测.

  8. Avian Influenza

    OpenAIRE

    Tsung-Zu Wu; Li-Min Huang

    2005-01-01

    Influenza is an old disease but remains vital nowadays. Three types of influenza viruses,namely A, B, C, have been identified; among them influenza A virus has pandemic potential.The first outbreak of human illness due to avian influenza virus (H5N1) occurred in1997 in Hong Kong with a mortality of 30%. The most recent outbreak of the avian influenzaepidemic has been going on in Asian countries since 2003. As of March 2005, 44 incidentalhuman infections and 32 deaths have been documented. Hum...

  9. Roles of the hemagglutinin of influenza A virus in viral entry and development of antiviral therapeutics and vaccines

    OpenAIRE

    Jiang, Shibo; Li, Runming; Du, Lanying; Liu, Shuwen

    2010-01-01

    Seasonal influenza epidemics and influenza pandemics caused by influenza A virus (IAV) has resulted in millions of deaths in the world. The development of anti-IAV vaccines and therapeutics is urgently needed for prevention and treatment of IAV infection and for controlling future influenza pandemics. Hemagglutinin (HA) of IAV plays a critical role in viral binding, fusion and entry, and contains the major neutralizing epitopes. Therefore, HA is an attractive target for developing anti-IAV dr...

  10. Emergency Physicians’ Adherence to Center for Disease Control and Prevention Guidance During the 2009 Influenza A H1N1 Pandemic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu-Hsiang Hsieh

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Little is known regarding compliance with management guidelines for epidemicinfluenza in adult emergency department (ED settings during the 2009 novel influenza A(H1N1 epidemic, especially in relation to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDCguidance.Methods: We investigated all patients with a clinical diagnosis of influenza at an inner-citytertiary academic adult ED with an annual census of approximately 60,000 visits from May 2008to December 2009. We aimed to determine patterns of presentation and management for adultpatients with an ED diagnosis of influenza during the H1N1 pandemic, using seasonal influenza(pre-H1N1 as reference and to determine the ED provider’s adherence to American College ofEmergency Physicians and CDC guidance during the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic. Adherenceto key elements of CDC 2009 H1N1 guidance was defined as (1 the proportion of admittedpatients who were recommended to receive testing or treatment who actually received testingfor influenza or treatment with antivirals; and (2 the proportion of high-risk patients who weresupposed to be treated who actually were treated with antivirals.Results: Among 339 patients with clinically diagnosed influenza, 88% occurred during the H1N1pandemic. Patients were similarly managed during both phases. Median length of visit (pre-H1N1:385 min, H1N1: 355 min, P > 0.05 and admission rates (pre-H1N1: 8%, H1N1: 11%, P > 0.05were similar between the 2 groups. 28% of patients in the pre-H1N1 group and 16% of patientsin the H1N1 group were prescribed antibiotics during their ED visits (P > 0.05. There were 34admitted patients during the pandemic;, 30 (88% of them received influenza testing in the ED,and 22 (65% were prescribed antivirals in the ED. Noticeably, 19 (56% of the 34 admittedpatients, including 6 with a positive influenza test, received antibiotic treatment during their ED stay.Conclusion: During the recent H1N1 pandemic, most admitted patients

  11. 3DFlu: database of sequence and structural variability of the influenza hemagglutinin at population scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mazzocco, Giovanni; Lazniewski, Michal; Migdał, Piotr; Szczepińska, Teresa; Radomski, Jan P.; Plewczynski, Dariusz

    2016-01-01

    The influenza virus type A (IVA) is an important pathogen which is able to cause annual epidemics and even pandemics. This fact is the consequence of the antigenic shifts and drifts capabilities of IVA, caused by the high mutation rate and the reassortment capabilities of the virus. The hemagglutinin (HA) protein constitutes the main IVA antigen and has a crucial role in the infection mechanism, being responsible for the recognition of host-specific sialic acid derivatives. Despite the relative abundance of HA sequence and serological studies, comparative structure-based analysis of HA are less investigated. The 3DFlu database contains well annotated HA representatives: 1192 models and 263 crystallographic structures. The relations between these proteins are defined using different metrics and are visualized as a network in the provided web interface. Moreover structural and sequence comparison of the proteins can be explored. Metadata information (e.g. protein identifier, IVA strain, year and location of infection) can enhance the exploration of the presented data. With our database researchers gain a useful tool for the exploration of high quality HA models, viewing and comparing changes in the HA viral subtypes at several information levels (sequence, structure, ESP). The complete and integrated view of those relations might be useful to determine the efficiency of transmission, pathogenicity and for the investigation of evolutionary tendencies of the influenza virus. Database URL: http://nucleus3d.cent.uw.edu.pl/influenza PMID:27694207

  12. Risk maps for the spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza in poultry.

    OpenAIRE

    Gert Jan Boender; Hagenaars, Thomas J; Annemarie Bouma; Gonnie Nodelijk; Elbers, Armin R. W; De Jong, Mart C. M.; Michiel van Boven

    2007-01-01

    Devastating epidemics of highly contagious animal diseases such as avian influenza, classical swine fever, and foot-and-mouth disease underline the need for improved understanding of the factors promoting the spread of these pathogens. Here the authors present a spatial analysis of the between-farm transmission of a highly pathogenic H7N7 avian influenza virus that caused a large epidemic in The Netherlands in 2003. The authors developed a method to estimate key parameters determining the spr...

  13. Risk maps for the spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza in poultry

    OpenAIRE

    Boender, G.J.; Hagenaars, T.H.J.; Bouma, A.; Nodelijk, G.; Elbers, A.R.W.; Jong, de, D.; Boven, van, R.M.

    2007-01-01

    Devastating epidemics of highly contagious animal diseases such as avian influenza, classical swine fever, and foot-and-mouth disease underline the need for improved understanding of the factors promoting the spread of these pathogens. Here the authors present a spatial analysis of the between-farm transmission of a highly pathogenic H7N7 avian influenza virus that caused a large epidemic in The Netherlands in 2003. The authors developed a method to estimate key parameters determining the spr...

  14. Similarities in mortality patterns from influenza in the first half of the 20th century and the rise and fall of ischemic heart disease in the United States: a new hypothesis concerning the coronary heart disease epidemic Semelhanças entre o padrão de mortalidade por influenza na primeira metade do século XX e o padrão de mortalidade por doença isquêmica do coração no transcorrer do século, nos Estados Unidos: uma nova hipótese para a epidemia de cardiopatia isquêmica

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Inês Reinert Azambuja

    2002-06-01

    Full Text Available The classic risk factors for developing coronary heart disease (CHD explain less than 50% of the decrease in mortality observed since 1950. The transition currently under way, from the degenerative to the infectious-inflammatory paradigm, requires a new causal interpretation of temporal trends. The following is an ecological study based on data from the United States showing that in men and women an association between the age distribution of mortality due to influenza and pneumonia (I&P associated with the influenza pandemic in 1918-1919 in the 10-49-year age bracket and the distribution of CHD mortality from 1920 to 1985 in survivors from the corresponding birth cohorts. It further shows a significant negative correlation (r = -0.68, p = 0.042 between excess mortality from I&P accumulated in epidemics from 1931 to 1940 (used as indicator for persistent circulation of H1N1 virus combined with vulnerability to infection and the order of the beginning in the decline in CHD mortality in nine geographic divisions in the United States. In light of current biological knowledge, the data suggest that the 1918 influenza pandemic and the subsequent epidemics up to 1957 might have played a determinant role in the epidemic of CHD mortality registered in the 20th century.Os fatores de risco clássicos para o desenvolvimento de doença isquêmica do coração (DIC explicam menos de 50% da queda na mortalidade observada desde 1950. A transição em curso, do paradigma degenerativo para o inflamatório/infeccioso, requer nova interpretação causal das tendências temporais. Este é um estudo ecológico, baseado em dados dos Estados Unidos, que mostra, em homens e mulheres, uma associação entre a distribuição etária da mortalidade por influenza e pneumonia (I&P associada à pandemia de influenza de 1918-1919 na faixa dos 10 aos 49 anos e a distribuição da mortalidade por DIC, entre 1920 e 1985, em sobreviventes das coortes de nascimento correspondentes

  15. Genomewide analysis of reassortment and evolution of human influenza A(H3N2) viruses circulating between 1968 and 2011

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    K.B. Westgeest (Kim); C.A. Russell (Colin); X. Lin (Xudong); M.I. Spronken (Monique); T.M. Bestebroer (Theo); J. Bahl (Justin); R. van Beek (Ruud); E. Skepner (Eugene); R.A. Halpin (Rebecca); J.C. de Jong (Jan); G.F. Rimmelzwaan (Guus); A.D.M.E. Osterhaus (Albert); D.R. Smith (Derek Richard); C.E. Wentworth (Charles); R.A.M. Fouchier (Ron); M.T. de Graaf (Marieke)

    2014-01-01

    textabstractInfluenza A(H3N2) viruses became widespread in humans during the 1968 H3N2 virus pandemic and have been a major cause of influenza epidemics ever since. These viruses evolve continuously by reassortment and genomic evolution. Antigenic drift is the cause for the need to update influenza

  16. Modeling Epidemic Network Failures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ruepp, Sarah Renée; Fagertun, Anna Manolova

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents the implementation of a failure propagation model for transport networks when multiple failures occur resulting in an epidemic. We model the Susceptible Infected Disabled (SID) epidemic model and validate it by comparing it to analytical solutions. Furthermore, we evaluate...... the SID model’s behavior and impact on the network performance, as well as the severity of the infection spreading. The simulations are carried out in OPNET Modeler. The model provides an important input to epidemic connection recovery mechanisms, and can due to its flexibility and versatility be used...... to evaluate multiple epidemic scenarios in various network types....

  17. Usage of quadrivalent influenza vaccine among children in the United States, 2013-14.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodgers, Loren; Pabst, Laura J; Zhu, Liping; Chaves, Sandra S

    2015-11-27

    Annual influenza vaccination is recommended for everyone ≥ 6 months in the U.S. During the 2013-14 influenza season, in addition to trivalent influenza vaccines, quadrivalent vaccines were available, protecting against two influenza A and two influenza B viruses. We analyzed 1,976,443 immunization records from six sentinel sites to compare influenza vaccine usage among children age 6 months-18 years. A total of 983,401 (49.8%) influenza vaccine doses administered were trivalent and 920,333 (46.6%) were quadrivalent (unknown type: 72,709). Quadrivalent vaccine administration varied by age and was least frequent among those <2 years of age.

  18. Clinical prediction rules combining signs, symptoms and epidemiological context to distinguish influenza from influenza-like illnesses in primary care: a cross sectional study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Van Royen Paul

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background During an influenza epidemic prompt diagnosis of influenza is important. This diagnosis however is still essentially based on the interpretation of symptoms and signs by general practitioners. No single symptom is specific enough to be useful in differentiating influenza from other respiratory infections. Our objective is to formulate prediction rules for the diagnosis of influenza with the best diagnostic performance, combining symptoms, signs and context among patients with influenza-like illness. Methods During five consecutive winter periods (2002-2007 138 sentinel general practitioners sampled (naso- and oropharyngeal swabs 4597 patients with an influenza-like illness (ILI and registered their symptoms and signs, general characteristics and contextual information. The samples were analysed by a DirectigenFlu-A&B and RT-PCR tests. 4584 records were useful for further analysis. Starting from the most relevant variables in a Generalized Estimating Equations (GEE model, we calculated the area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve (ROC AUC, sensitivity, specificity and likelihood ratios for positive (LR+ and negative test results (LR- of single and combined signs, symptoms and context taking into account pre-test and post-test odds. Results In total 52.6% (2409/4584 of the samples were positive for influenza virus: 64% (2066/3212 during and 25% (343/1372 pre/post an influenza epidemic. During and pre/post an influenza epidemic the LR+ of 'previous flu-like contacts', 'coughing', 'expectoration on the first day of illness' and 'body temperature above 37.8°C' is 3.35 (95%CI 2.67-4.03 and 1.34 (95%CI 0.97-1.72, respectively. During and pre/post an influenza epidemic the LR- of 'coughing' and 'a body temperature above 37.8°C' is 0.34 (95%CI 0.27-0.41 and 0.07 (95%CI 0.05-0.08, respectively. Conclusions Ruling out influenza using clinical and contextual information is easier than ruling it in. Outside an influenza

  19. Anti-Influenza Activity of Marchantins, Macrocyclic Bisbibenzyls Contained in Liverworts

    OpenAIRE

    Yuma Iwai; Kouki Murakami; Yasuyuki Gomi; Toshihiro Hashimoto; Yoshinori Asakawa; Yoshinobu Okuno; Toyokazu Ishikawa; Dai Hatakeyama; Noriko Echigo; Takashi Kuzuhara

    2011-01-01

    The H1N1 influenza A virus of swine-origin caused pandemics throughout the world in 2009 and the highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza virus has also caused epidemics in Southeast Asia in recent years. The threat of influenza A thus remains a serious global health issue and novel drugs that target these viruses are highly desirable. Influenza A possesses an endonuclease within its RNA polymerase which comprises PA, PB1 and PB2 subunits. To identify potential new anti-influenza compounds in o...

  20. In Vitro Antiviral Effect of "Nanosilver" on Influenza Virus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P Mehrbod

    2009-08-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Influenza is a viral infectious disease with frequent seasonal epidemics causing world-wide economical and social effects. Due to antigenic shifts and drifts of influenza virus, long-lasting vaccine has not been developed so far. The current annual vaccines and effective antiviral drugs are not available sufficiently. Therefore in order to prevent spread of infectious agents including viruses, antiseptics are considered by world health authorities. Small particles of silver have a long history as general antiseptic and disinfectant. Silver does not induce resistance in microorganisms and this ability in Nano-size is stronger. Materials and methods: The aim of this study was to determine antiviral effects of Nanosilver against influenza virus. TCID50 (50% Tissue Culture Infectious Dose of the virus as well as CC50 (50% Cytotoxic Concentration of Nanosilver was obtained by MTT (3- [4, 5-dimethylthiazol-2-yl]-2, 5-diphenyl-tetrazolium bromide, Sigma method. This compound was non-toxic to MDCK (Madin-Darbey Canin Kidney cells at concentration up to 1 µg/ml.  Effective minimal cytotoxic concentration and 100 TCID50 of the virus were added to the confluent cells.  Inhibitory effects of Nanosilver on the virus and its cytotoxicity were assessed at different temperatures using Hemagglutination (HA assay, RT-PCR (Reverse Transcriptase-Polymerase Chain Reaction, and DIF (Direct Immunofluorescent. RT-PCR and free band densitometry software were used to compare the volume of the PCR product bands on the gel. Results and Discussion:  In this study it was found that Nanosilver has destructive effect on the virus membrane glycoprotein knobs as well as the cells.

  1. Optimizing infectious disease interventions during an emerging epidemic

    OpenAIRE

    Wallinga, J.; van Boven, M.; Lipsitch, M.

    2009-01-01

    The emergence and global impact of the novel influenza A(H1N1)v highlights the continuous threat to public health posed by a steady stream of new and unexpected infectious disease outbreaks in animals and humans. Once an emerging epidemic is detected, public health authorities will attempt to mitigate the epidemic by, among other measures, reducing further spread as much as possible. Scarce and/or costly control measures such as vaccines, anti-infective drugs, and social distancing must be al...

  2. Cause of Flu (Influenza)

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Skip Content Marketing Share this: Main Content Area Flu (Influenza) Cause About the Flu Virus Influenza, or flu, is a respiratory infection ... the virus. Influenza A virus. Credit: CDC Where Influenza Comes From In nature, the flu virus is ...

  3. Does a Mature AIDS Epidemic Threaten Growth?

    OpenAIRE

    Cuesta, José

    2008-01-01

    This paper models the impact on economic growth of HIV/AIDS when the epidemic is in a mature phase, in contrast with previous studies focused on periods of expansion, as in African countries. Simulations for Honduras, the epicenter of the epidemic in Central America, show that AIDS is not likely to threaten economic growth through either labor or capital accumulation channels; impacts are estimated between 0. 007 and 0. 27 percent points of GDP growth annually for the period 2001-10. Likewise...

  4. Detecting nonlinearity and chaos in epidemic data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ellner, S.; Gallant, A.R. [North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC (United States). Dept. of Statistics; Theiler, J. [Santa Fe Inst., NM (United States)]|[Los Alamos National Lab., NM (United States)

    1993-08-01

    Historical data on recurrent epidemics have been central to the debate about the prevalence of chaos in biological population dynamics. Schaffer and Kot who first recognized that the abundance and accuracy of disease incidence data opened the door to applying a range of methods for detecting chaos that had been devised in the early 1980`s. Using attractor reconstruction, estimates of dynamical invariants, and comparisons between data and simulation of SEIR models, the ``case for chaos in childhood epidemics`` was made through a series of influential papers beginning in the mid 1980`s. The proposition that the precise timing and magnitude of epidemic outbreaks are deterministic but chaotic is appealing, since it raises the hope of finding determinism and simplicity beneath the apparently stochastic and complicated surface of the data. The initial enthusiasm for methods of detecting chaos in data has been followed by critical re-evaluations of their limitations. Early hopes of a ``one size fits all`` algorithm to diagnose chaos vs. noise in any data set have given way to a recognition that a variety of methods must be used, and interpretation of results must take into account the limitations of each method and the imperfections of the data. Our goals here are to outline some newer methods for detecting nonlinearity and chaos that have a solid statistical basis and are suited to epidemic data, and to begin a re-evaluation of the claims for nonlinear dynamics and chaos in epidemics using these newer methods. We also identify features of epidemic data that create problems for the older, better known methods of detecting chaos. When we ask ``are epidemics nonlinear?``, we are not questioning the existence of global nonlinearities in epidemic dynamics, such as nonlinear transmission rates. Our question is whether the data`s deviations from an annual cyclic trend (which would reflect global nonlinearities) are described by a linear, noise-driven stochastic process.

  5. Quantifying the transmission potential of pandemic influenza

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chowell, Gerardo; Nishiura, Hiroshi

    2008-03-01

    This article reviews quantitative methods to estimate the basic reproduction number of pandemic influenza, a key threshold quantity to help determine the intensity of interventions required to control the disease. Although it is difficult to assess the transmission potential of a probable future pandemic, historical epidemiologic data is readily available from previous pandemics, and as a reference quantity for future pandemic planning, mathematical and statistical analyses of historical data are crucial. In particular, because many historical records tend to document only the temporal distribution of cases or deaths (i.e. epidemic curve), our review focuses on methods to maximize the utility of time-evolution data and to clarify the detailed mechanisms of the spread of influenza. First, we highlight structured epidemic models and their parameter estimation method which can quantify the detailed disease dynamics including those we cannot observe directly. Duration-structured epidemic systems are subsequently presented, offering firm understanding of the definition of the basic and effective reproduction numbers. When the initial growth phase of an epidemic is investigated, the distribution of the generation time is key statistical information to appropriately estimate the transmission potential using the intrinsic growth rate. Applications of stochastic processes are also highlighted to estimate the transmission potential using similar data. Critically important characteristics of influenza data are subsequently summarized, followed by our conclusions to suggest potential future methodological improvements.

  6. Predicting pneumonia and influenza mortality from morbidity data.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lise Denoeud

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Few European countries conduct reactive surveillance of influenza mortality, whereas most monitor morbidity. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We developed a simple model based on Poisson seasonal regression to predict excess cases of pneumonia and influenza mortality during influenza epidemics, based on influenza morbidity data and the dominant types/subtypes of circulating viruses. Epidemics were classified in three levels of mortality burden ("high", "moderate" and "low". The model was fitted on 14 influenza seasons and was validated on six subsequent influenza seasons. Five out of the six seasons in the validation set were correctly classified. The average absolute difference between observed and predicted mortality was 2.8 per 100,000 (18% of the average excess mortality and Spearman's rank correlation coefficient was 0.89 (P = 0.05. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The method described here can be used to estimate the influenza mortality burden in countries where specific pneumonia and influenza mortality surveillance data are not available.

  7. Increasing herd immunity with influenza revaccination.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mooring, E Q; Bansal, S

    2016-04-01

    Seasonal influenza is a significant public health concern globally. While influenza vaccines are the single most effective intervention to reduce influenza morbidity and mortality, there is considerable debate surrounding the merits and consequences of repeated seasonal vaccination. Here, we describe a two-season influenza epidemic contact network model and use it to demonstrate that increasing the level of continuity in vaccination across seasons reduces the burden on public health. We show that revaccination reduces the influenza attack rate not only because it reduces the overall number of susceptible individuals, but also because it better protects highly connected individuals, who would otherwise make a disproportionately large contribution to influenza transmission. We also demonstrate that our results hold on an empirical contact network, in the presence of assortativity in vaccination status, and are robust for a range of vaccine coverage and efficacy levels. Our work contributes a population-level perspective to debates about the merits of repeated influenza vaccination and advocates for public health policy to incorporate individual vaccine histories.

  8. Surveillance of low pathogenic avian influenza in layer chickens: risk factors, transmission and early detection

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gonzales Rojas, J.L.

    2012-01-01

    Low pathogenic avian influenza virus (LPAIv) of H5 and H7 subtypes are able to mutate to highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIv), which are lethal for most poultry species, can cause large epidemics and are a serious threat to public health. Thus, circulation of these LPAIv in poultry is und

  9. Swine Influenza/Variant Influenza Viruses

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Documents (General) Workers Employed at Commercial Swine Farms Influenza Types Seasonal Avian Swine Variant Pandemic Other Get ... this? Submit Button Past Newsletters Information on Swine Influenza/Variant Influenza Viruses Language: English Español Recommend ...

  10. Prediction of Peaks of Seasonal Influenza in Military Health-Care Data

    OpenAIRE

    Buczak, Anna L; Baugher, Benjamin; Guven, Erhan; Moniz, Linda; Steven M Babin; Chretien, Jean-Paul

    2016-01-01

    Influenza is a highly contagious disease that causes seasonal epidemics with significant morbidity and mortality. The ability to predict influenza peak several weeks in advance would allow for timely preventive public health planning and interventions to be used to mitigate these outbreaks. Because influenza may also impact the operational readiness of active duty personnel, the US military places a high priority on surveillance and preparedness for seasonal outbreaks. A method for creating m...

  11. Emerging influenza

    OpenAIRE

    de Wit, Emmie; Fouchier, Ron

    2008-01-01

    textabstractIn 1918 the Spanish influenza pandemic, caused by an avian H1N1 virus, resulted in over 50 million deaths worldwide. Several outbreaks of H7 influenza A viruses have resulted in human cases, including one fatal case. Since 1997, the outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) of the H5N1 subtype have affected a wide variety of mammals in addition to poultry and wild birds. Here, we give an overview of the current knowledge of the determinants of pathogenicity of these th...

  12. Replication-Competent Influenza A and B Viruses Expressing a Fluorescent Dynamic Timer Protein for In Vitro and In Vivo Studies.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael Breen

    Full Text Available Influenza A and B viruses (IAV and IBV, respectively cause annual seasonal human respiratory disease epidemics. In addition, IAVs have been implicated in occasional pandemics with inordinate health and economic consequences. Studying influenza viruses in vitro or in vivo requires the use of laborious secondary methodologies to identify infected cells. To circumvent this requirement, replication-competent infectious influenza viruses expressing an easily traceable fluorescent reporter protein can be used. Timer is a fluorescent protein that undergoes a time-dependent color emission conversion from green to red. The rate of spectral change is independent of Timer protein concentration and can be used to chronologically measure the duration of its expression. Here, we describe the generation of replication-competent IAV and IBV where the viral non-structural protein 1 (NS1 was fused to the fluorescent dynamic Timer protein. Timer-expressing IAV and IBV displayed similar plaque phenotypes and growth kinetics to wild-type viruses in tissue culture. Within infected cells, Timer's spectral shift can be used to measure the rate and cell-to-cell spread of infection using fluorescent microscopy, plate readers, or flow cytometry. The progression of Timer-expressing IAV infection was also evaluated in a mouse model, demonstrating the feasibility to characterize IAV cell-to-cell infections in vivo. By providing the ability to chronologically track viral spread, Timer-expressing influenza viruses are an excellent option to evaluate the in vitro and in vivo dynamics of viral infection.

  13. Health newscasts for increasing influenza vaccination coverage: an inductive reasoning game approach.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Romulus Breban

    Full Text Available Both pandemic and seasonal influenza are receiving more attention from mass media than ever before. Topics such as epidemic severity and vaccination are changing the way in which we perceive the utility of disease prevention. Voluntary influenza vaccination has been recently modeled using inductive reasoning games. It has thus been found that severe epidemics may occur because individuals do not vaccinate and, instead, attempt to benefit from the immunity of their peers. Such epidemics could be prevented by voluntary vaccination if incentives were offered. However, a key assumption has been that individuals make vaccination decisions based on whether there was an epidemic each influenza season; no other epidemiological information is available to them. In this work, we relax this assumption and investigate the consequences of making more informed vaccination decisions while no incentives are offered. We obtain three major results. First, individuals will not cooperate enough to constantly prevent influenza epidemics through voluntary vaccination no matter how much they learned about influenza epidemiology. Second, broadcasting epidemiological information richer than whether an epidemic occurred may stabilize the vaccination coverage and suppress severe influenza epidemics. Third, the stable vaccination coverage follows the trend of the perceived benefit of vaccination. However, increasing the amount of epidemiological information released to the public may either increase or decrease the perceived benefit of vaccination. We discuss three scenarios where individuals know, in addition to whether there was an epidemic, (i the incidence, (ii the vaccination coverage and (iii both the incidence and the vaccination coverage, every influenza season. We show that broadcasting both the incidence and the vaccination coverage could yield either better or worse vaccination coverage than broadcasting each piece of information on its own.

  14. Avian influenza

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... avian influenza A in Asia, Africa, Europe, Indonesia, Vietnam, the Pacific, and the near East. Hundreds of ... to detect abnormal breath sounds) Chest x-ray Culture from the nose or throat A method or ...

  15. Epidemic model with isolation in multilayer networks

    CERN Document Server

    Zuzek, L G Alvarez; Braunstein, L A

    2014-01-01

    The Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model has successfully mimicked the propagation of such airborne diseases as influenza A (H1N1). Although the SIR model has recently been studied in a multilayer networks configuration, in almost all the research the dynamic movement of infected individuals, e.g., how they are often kept in isolation, is disregarded. We study the SIR model in two multilayer networks and use an isolation parameter, indicating time period, to measure the effect of isolating infected individuals from both layers. This isolation reduces the transmission of the disease because the time in which infection can spread is reduced. In this scenario we find that the epidemic threshold increases with the isolation time and the isolation parameter and the impact of the propagation is reduced. We also find that when isolation is total there is a threshold for the isolation parameter above which the disease never becomes an epidemic. We also find that regular epidemic models always overestimate the e...

  16. Configuring the autism epidemic

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Fie Lund Lindegaard; Seeberg, Jens

    2017-01-01

    Autism has been described as an epidemic, but this claim is contested and may point to an awareness epidemic, i.e. changes in the definition of what autism is and more attention being invested in diagnosis leading to a rise in registered cases. The sex ratio of children diagnosed with autism...... is skewed in favour of boys, and girls with autism tend to be diagnosed much later than boys. Building and further developing the notion of ‘configuration’ of epidemics, this article explores the configuration of autism in Denmark, with a particular focus on the health system and social support to families...

  17. Origin and fate of A/H1N1 influenza in Scotland during 2009

    OpenAIRE

    Lycett, S.; McLeish, N.J.; Robertson, C.; Carman, W; Baillie, G.; McMenamin, J.; Rambaut, A; Simmonds, P.; Woolhouse, M.; Leigh Brown, A.J.

    2012-01-01

    The spread of influenza has usually been described by a ‘density’ model, where the largest centres of population drive the epidemic within a country. An alternative model emphasizing the role of air travel has recently been developed. We have examined the relative importance of the two in the context of the 2009 H1N1 influenza epidemic in Scotland. We obtained genome sequences of 70 strains representative of the geographical and temporal distribution of H1N1 influenza during the summer and wi...

  18. Chemical Genomics Identifies the PERK-Mediated Unfolded Protein Stress Response as a Cellular Target for Influenza Virus Inhibition

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sara Landeras-Bueno

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Influenza A viruses generate annual epidemics and occasional pandemics of respiratory disease with important consequences for human health and the economy. Therefore, a large effort has been devoted to the development of new anti-influenza virus drugs directed to viral targets, as well as to the identification of cellular targets amenable to anti-influenza virus therapy. Here we have addressed the identification of such potential cellular targets by screening collections of drugs approved for human use. We reasoned that screening with a green fluorescent protein-based recombinant replicon system would identify cellular targets involved in virus transcription/replication and/or gene expression and hence address an early stage of virus infection. By using such a strategy, we identified Montelukast (MK as an inhibitor of virus multiplication. MK inhibited virus gene expression but did not alter viral RNA synthesis in vitro or viral RNA accumulation in vivo. The low selectivity index of MK prevented its use as an antiviral, but it was sufficient to identify a new cellular pathway suitable for anti-influenza virus intervention. By deep sequencing of RNA isolated from mock- and virus-infected human cells, treated with MK or left untreated, we showed that it stimulates the PERK-mediated unfolded protein stress response. The phosphorylation of PERK was partly inhibited in virus-infected cells but stimulated in MK-treated cells. Accordingly, pharmacological inhibition of PERK phosphorylation led to increased viral gene expression, while inhibition of PERK phosphatase reduced viral protein synthesis. These results suggest the PERK-mediated unfolded protein response as a potential cellular target to modulate influenza virus infection.

  19. A dose-response evaluation of inactivated influenza vaccine given intranasally and intramuscularly to healthy young adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Atmar, Robert L; Keitel, Wendy A; Cate, Thomas R; Munoz, Flor M; Ruben, Fred; Couch, Robert B

    2007-07-20

    Epidemic influenza occurs annually throughout the world and is accompanied by excess morbidity and mortality. Increasing the antigen content and topical administration of vaccine are two strategies being explored to improve the immune responses to trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine (TIV). We conducted a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial to compare the immunogenicity and reactogenicity of intramuscular (IM), intranasal (IN), or combined IM and IN administration of a contemporary US vaccine formulation at escalating dosage levels in young healthy adults. Two hundred forty three healthy adults between the ages of 18 and 45 years received 15, 30, or 60mcg of trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine by either IN, IM or both routes, 120mcg of vaccine IM, or placebo IN and IM. All dosages and routes of vaccine administration were well-tolerated. A bad taste and mild nasal discomfort were more likely to be reported when influenza vaccine was administered IN, while arm tenderness was more common after IM administration. Significant increases in geometric mean serum antibody titers in both HAI and Nt assays were seen in all of the groups receiving influenza vaccine for all test antigens (Por=32 were higher following delivery of the study vaccines by an IM route than by the IN route, but significant increases in serum antibody were seen after IN vaccination. Nasal IgA antibody responses were more common when vaccine was administered IN; and, when the IN dosage was increased, the primary benefit from IN vaccine over IM vaccine appeared to be greater induction of nasal secretory antibody.

  20. The Burden of Influenza-Associated Hospitalizations in Oman, January 2008-June 2013.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Salah Al-Awaidy

    Full Text Available Acute respiratory infections (ARI, including influenza, comprise a leading cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. Influenza surveillance provides important information to inform policy on influenza control and vaccination. While the epidemiology of influenza has been well characterized in western countries, few data exist on influenza epidemiology in the Eastern Mediterranean Region. We describe the epidemiology of influenza virus in Oman.Using syndromic case definitions and protocols, patients from four regional hospitals in Oman were enrolled in a descriptive prospective study to characterize the burden of severe acute respiratory infections (SARI and influenza. Eligible patients provided demographic information as well as oropharyngeal (OP and nasopharyngeal (NP swabs. Specimens were tested for influenza A and influenza B; influenza A viruses were subtyped using RT-PCR.From January 2008 through June 2013, a total of 5,147 cases were enrolled and tested for influenza. Influenza strains were detected in 8% of cases for whom samples were available. Annual incidence rates ranged from 0.5 to 15.4 cases of influenza-associated SARI per 100,000 population. The median age of influenza patients was 6 years with children 0-2 years accounting for 34% of all influenza-associated hospitalizations. By contrast, the median age of non-influenza SARI cases was 1 year with children 0-2 years comprising 59% of SARI. Compared to non-influenza SARI cases, a greater proportion of influenza cases had pre-existing chronic conditions and underwent ventilation during hospitalization.Influenza virus is associated with a substantial proportion of SARI in Oman. Influenza in Oman approximately follows northern hemisphere seasonality, with major peaks in October to December and a lesser peak around April. The burden of influenza was greatest in children and the elderly. Future efforts should examine the burden of influenza in other potential risk groups such as

  1. The global transmission and control of influenza.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eben Kenah

    Full Text Available New strains of influenza spread around the globe via the movement of infected individuals. The global dynamics of influenza are complicated by different patterns of influenza seasonality in different regions of the world. We have released an open-source stochastic mathematical model of the spread of influenza across 321 major, strategically located cities of the world. Influenza is transmitted between cities via infected airline passengers. Seasonality is simulated by increasing the transmissibility in each city at the times of the year when influenza has been observed to be most prevalent. The spatiotemporal spread of pandemic influenza can be understood through clusters of global transmission and links between them, which we identify using the epidemic percolation network (EPN of the model. We use the model to explain the observed global pattern of spread for pandemic influenza A(H1N1 2009-2010 (pandemic H1N1 2009 and to examine possible global patterns of spread for future pandemics depending on the origin of pandemic spread, time of year of emergence, and basic reproductive number (. We also use the model to investigate the effectiveness of a plausible global distribution of vaccine for various pandemic scenarios. For pandemic H1N1 2009, we show that the biggest impact of vaccination was in the temperate northern hemisphere. For pandemics starting in the temperate northern hemisphere in May or April, vaccination would have little effect in the temperate southern hemisphere and a small effect in the tropics. With the increasing interconnectedness of the world's population, we must take a global view of infectious disease transmission. Our open-source, computationally simple model can help public health officials plan for the next pandemic as well as deal with interpandemic influenza.

  2. Dynamics of beneficial epidemics

    CERN Document Server

    Berdahl, Andrew; De Bacco, Caterina; Dumas, Marion; Ferdinand, Vanessa; Grochow, Joshua A; Hébert-Dufresne, Laurent; Kallus, Yoav; Kempes, Christopher P; Kolchinsky, Artemy; Larremore, Daniel B; Libby, Eric; Power, Eleanor A; Stern, Caitlin A; Tracey, Brendan

    2016-01-01

    Pathogens can spread epidemically through populations. Beneficial contagions, such as viruses that enhance host survival or technological innovations that improve quality of life, also have the potential to spread epidemically. How do the dynamics of beneficial biological and social epidemics differ from those of detrimental epidemics? We investigate this question using three theoretical approaches as well as an empirical analysis of concept propagation. First, in evolutionary models, we show that a beneficial horizontally-transmissible element, such as viral DNA, spreads super-exponentially through a population, substantially more quickly than a beneficial mutation. Second, in an epidemiological social network approach, we show that infections that cause increased connectivity lead to faster-than-exponential fixation in the population. Third, in a sociological model with strategic rewiring, we find that preferences for increased global infection accelerate spread and produce super-exponential fixation rates,...

  3. Influenza activity in Thailand and occurrence in different climates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prachayangprecha, Slinporn; Vichaiwattana, Preeyaporn; Korkong, Sumeth; Felber, Joshua A; Poovorawan, Yong

    2015-01-01

    This study observed influenza activity between June 2009 and July 2014 in Thailand, a country in the Northern hemisphere with a tropical climate, and compared the results to activity in the United States (US) and Australia, which represent temperate climates in the Northern and Southern hemispheres, respectively. From Thailand, a total of 17,416 specimens were collected from patients exhibiting influenza-like illnesses and subjected to real-time PCR for the detection of influenza viruses. For comparison, laboratory confirmations of influenza originating from the US and Australia were obtained from the US CDC's FluView surveillance reports and the Australian Government's Department of Health and Ageing websites. We found that, generally, the influenza season in Thailand starts with the rainy season. This observation of influenza's annual incidence pattern provides a better understanding of its occurrence, suggesting that vaccination campaigns should be started before the influenza season begins in order to reduce transmission.

  4. Epidemic and Non-Epidemic Hot Spots of Malaria Transmission Occur in Indigenous Comarcas of Panama

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dutari, Larissa C.; Rovira, Jose R.; Sucupira, Izis M. C.; Póvoa, Marinete M.; Conn, Jan E.; Loaiza, Jose R.

    2016-01-01

    From 2002–2005, Panama experienced a malaria epidemic that has been associated with El Niño Southern Oscillation weather patterns, decreased funding for malaria control, and landscape modification. Case numbers quickly decreased afterward, and Panama is now in the pre-elimination stage of malaria eradication. To achieve this new goal, the characterization of epidemiological risk factors, foci of transmission, and important anopheline vectors is needed. Of the 24,681 reported cases in these analyses (2000–2014), ~62% occurred in epidemic years and ~44% in indigenous comarcas (5.9% of Panama’s population). Sub-analyses comparing overall numbers of cases in epidemic and non-epidemic years identified females, comarcas and some 5-year age categories as those disproportionately affected by malaria during epidemic years. Annual parasites indices (APIs; number of cases per 1,000 persons) for Plasmodium vivax were higher in comarcas compared to provinces for all study years, though P. falciparum APIs were only higher in comarcas during epidemic years. Interestingly, two comarcas report increasing numbers of cases annually, despite national annual decreases. Inclusion of these comarcas within identified foci of malaria transmission confirmed their roles in continued transmission. Comparison of species distribution models for two important anophelines with Plasmodium case distribution suggest An. albimanus is the primary malaria vector in Panama, confirmed by identification of nine P. vivax-infected specimen pools. Future malaria eradication strategies in Panama should focus on indigenous comarcas and include both active surveillance for cases and comprehensive anopheline vector surveys. PMID:27182773

  5. Developing Universal Influenza Vaccines: Hitting the Nail, Not Just on the Head

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    L.C.M. Wiersma (Lidewij); G.F. Rimmelzwaan (Guus); R.D. de Vries (Rory)

    2016-01-01

    textabstractInfluenza viruses have a huge impact on public health. Current influenza vaccines need to be updated annually and protect poorly against antigenic drift variants or novel emerging subtypes. Vaccination against influenza can be improved in two important ways, either by inducing more broad

  6. Pandemic and Seasonal Influenza: Therapeutic Challenges

    OpenAIRE

    Memoli, Matthew J.; Morens, David M.; Jeffery K Taubenberger

    2008-01-01

    Influenza A viruses cause significant morbidity and mortality annually, and the threat of a pandemic underscores the need for new therapeutic strategies. Here we briefly discuss novel antiviral agents under investigation, the limitations of current antiviral therapy and stress the importance of secondary bacterial infections in seasonal and pandemic influenza. Additionally, the lack of new antibiotics available to treat increasingly drug resistant organisms such as methicillin-resistant Staph...

  7. Phylogenetic analysis reveals the global migration of seasonal influenza A viruses.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martha I Nelson

    2007-09-01

    Full Text Available The winter seasonality of influenza A virus in temperate climates is one of the most widely recognized, yet least understood, epidemiological patterns in infectious disease. Central to understanding what drives the seasonal emergence of this important human pathogen is determining what becomes of the virus during the non-epidemic summer months. Herein, we take a step towards elucidating the seasonal emergence of influenza virus by determining the evolutionary relationship between populations of influenza A virus sampled from opposite hemispheres. We conducted a phylogenetic analysis of 487 complete genomes of human influenza A/H3N2 viruses collected between 1999 and 2005 from Australia and New Zealand in the southern hemisphere, and a representative sub-sample of viral genome sequences from 413 isolates collected in New York state, United States, representing the northern hemisphere. We show that even in areas as relatively geographically isolated as New Zealand's South Island and Western Australia, global viral migration contributes significantly to the seasonal emergence of influenza A epidemics, and that this migration has no clear directional pattern. These observations run counter to suggestions that local epidemics are triggered by the climate-driven reactivation of influenza viruses that remain latent within hosts between seasons or transmit at low efficiency between seasons. However, a complete understanding of the seasonal movements of influenza A virus will require greatly expanded global surveillance, particularly of tropical regions where the virus circulates year-round, and during non-epidemic periods in temperate climate areas.

  8. Bayesian modeling to unmask and predict influenza A/H1N1pdm dynamics in London

    OpenAIRE

    Birrell, Paul J.; Ketsetzis, Georgios; Gay, Nigel J.; Cooper, Ben S.; Presanis, Anne M.; Harris, Ross J.; Charlett, André; Zhang, Xu-Sheng; Peter J White; Pebody, Richard G.; De Angelis, Daniela

    2011-01-01

    The tracking and projection of emerging epidemics is hindered by the disconnect between apparent epidemic dynamics, discernible from noisy and incomplete surveillance data, and the underlying, imperfectly observed, system. Behavior changes compound this, altering both true dynamics and reporting patterns, particularly for diseases with nonspecific symptoms, such as influenza. We disentangle these effects to unravel the hidden dynamics of the 2009 influenza A/H1N1pdm pandemic in London, where ...

  9. Transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H7 virus

    OpenAIRE

    Bos, M.E.H.

    2009-01-01

    Knowledge of the transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus still has gaps, complicating epidemic control. A model was developed to back-calculate the day HPAI virus was introduced into a flock, based on within-flock mortality data of the Dutch HPAI H7N7 epidemic (2003). The method was based on a stochastic epidemic model in which birds move from being susceptible, latently infected and infectious, to death. Our results indicated that two weeks can elapse before a noticeab...

  10. The Relationship between Tuberculosis and Influenza Death during the Influenza (H1N1 Pandemic from 1918-19

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Welling Oei

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The epidemiological mechanisms behind the W-shaped age-specific influenza mortality during the Spanish influenza (H1N1 pandemic 1918-19 have yet to be fully clarified. The present study aimed to develop a formal hypothesis: tuberculosis (TB was associated with the W-shaped influenza mortality from 1918-19. Three pieces of epidemiological information were assessed: (i the epidemic records containing the age-specific numbers of cases and deaths of influenza from 1918-19, (ii an outbreak record of influenza in a Swiss TB sanatorium during the pandemic, and (iii the age-dependent TB mortality over time in the early 20th century. Analyzing the data (i, we found that the W-shaped pattern was not only seen in mortality but also in the age-specific case fatality ratio, suggesting the presence of underlying age-specific risk factor(s of influenza death among young adults. From the data (ii, TB was shown to be associated with influenza death (P=0.09, and there was no influenza death among non-TB controls. The data (iii were analyzed by employing the age-period-cohort model, revealing harvesting effect in the period function of TB mortality shortly after the 1918-19 pandemic. These findings suggest that it is worthwhile to further explore the role of TB in characterizing the age-specific risk of influenza death.

  11. 鸡新城疫、传染性支气管炎、禽流感(H9亚型)三联灭活疫苗对禽流感H9亚型流行株攻毒的保护作用%Protective efficiency of the inactivated Newcastle disease virus, infectious bronchitis virus and avian influenza virus (H9 subtype) vaccine against epidemic strains of avian influenza virus H9

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    林绮萍; 陈瑞爱; 黄文科; 区德庆; 严洁珍

    2012-01-01

    To monitor the protective efficiency of the inactivated Newcastle disease virus, infectious bronchitis virus and avian influenza virus H9 subtype (AIV-H9) vaccine (LaSota + M41 + SS/94), SPF chickens were respectively inoculated with strain SS/94 and three epidemic strains of AIV-H9 isolated during 2009-2010, after being immunized with the inactivated vaccine. The results showed that at 21 days after immunization, the HI antibody titers to AIV-H9 in the experimental chickens varied from 81og2 to lllog2. The antibody levels had protective ability against the challenge with 2x106EID50 of AIV-H9 strains including SS/94, BLCN09, WDZ09 and YT10, and the protection rates were above 90% (9/10). It suggested that the triple inactivated vaccine with the strain SS/94 used as the AIV antigen could induce protective immunity against challenge with epidemic strains of AIV-H9.%为了监测鸡新城疫、传染性支气管炎、禽流感(H9亚型)三联灭活疫苗(LaSota株+M41株+SS/94株)对H9亚型禽流感病毒流行毒株的免疫保护效果,采用H9亚型禽流感病毒SS/94株及2009-2010年现地分离的3株H9亚型禽流感病毒对已免疫上述三联灭活苗的SPF鸡进行攻毒试验.结果显示,试验鸡以0.3 mL/只的剂量免疫三联灭活苗后21 d,其H9亚型禽流感病毒的HI抗体效价可达8~ 11log2,此抗体水平可抵抗2×106 EID50的H9亚型禽流感病毒SS/94株、BLCN09株、WDZ09株、YT10株的攻击,攻毒保护率均达90% (9/10)以上.可见,以SS/94株作为禽流感疫苗抗原制备的三联灭活苗具有良好的免疫原性,能使免疫鸡抵抗2009-2010年期间现地分离的多株H9亚型禽流感病毒的攻击.

  12. Influenza aviar

    OpenAIRE

    Pereda, Ariel

    2006-01-01

    Es una enfermedad contagiosa de las aves causada por un virus que comúnmente infecta solamente a las aves, pero que en raras ocasiones, también puede infectar a otros animales como el cerdo y menos comúnmente aún al hombre. El virus causante es denominado virus de la Influenza Aviar. Esta enfermedad fue reconocida, descripta y denominada Peste Aviar en Italia en 1878. En 1955, se demostró que el virus causante de la enfermedad era en realidad un virus de influenza. El ser humano puede s...

  13. Morbidity, Mortality, and Seasonality of Influenza Hospitalizations in Egypt, November 2007-November 2014

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kandeel, Amr; Labib, Manal; Said, Mayar; El-Refai, Samir; El-Gohari, Amani; Talaat, Maha

    2016-01-01

    Background Influenza typically comprises a substantial portion of acute respiratory infections, a leading cause of mortality worldwide. However, influenza epidemiology data are lacking in Egypt. We describe seven years of Egypt’s influenza hospitalizations from a multi-site influenza surveillance system. Methods Syndromic case definitions identified individuals with severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) admitted to eight hospitals in Egypt. Standardized demographic and clinical data were collected. Nasopharyngeal and oropharyngeal swabs were tested for influenza using real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction and typed as influenza A or B, and influenza A specimens subtyped. Results From November 2007–November 2014, 2,936/17,441 (17%) SARI cases were influenza-positive. Influenza-positive patients were more likely to be older, female, pregnant, and have chronic condition(s) (all p<0.05). Among them, 53 (2%) died, and death was associated with older age, five or more days from symptom onset to hospitalization, chronic condition(s), and influenza A (all p<0.05). An annual seasonal influenza pattern occurred from July–June. Each season, the proportion of the season’s influenza-positive cases peaked during November–May (19–41%). Conclusions In Egypt, influenza causes considerable morbidity and mortality and influenza SARI hospitalization patterns mirror those of the Northern Hemisphere. Additional assessment of influenza epidemiology in Egypt may better guide disease control activities and vaccine policy. PMID:27607330

  14. Use of computational and recombinant technologies for developing novel influenza vaccines.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wong, Terianne M; Ross, Ted M

    2016-01-01

    Influenza vaccine design has changed considerably with advancements in bioinformatics and computational biology. Improved surveillance efforts provide up-to-date information about influenza sequence diversity and assist with monitoring the spread of epidemics and vaccine efficacy rates. The advent of next-generation sequencing, epitope scanning and high-throughput analysis all help decipher influenza-associated protein interactions as well as predict immune responsiveness based on host genetic diversity. Computational approaches are utilized in nearly all aspects of vaccine design, from modeling, compatibility predictions, and optimization of antigens in various platforms. This overview discusses how computational techniques strengthen vaccine efforts against highly diverse influenza species.

  15. A simple and rapid characterization of influenza virus isolates by monoclonal antibodies in radioimmunoassay

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Radioimmunoassay is described with infectious allantoic fluid directly bound to solid phase, suitable for the detection and further characterization of influenza virus isolates. This simple and rapid method was applied for the description of isolates obtained from different regions of Czechoslovakia during the influenza epidemic in 1983. The results confirmed that all 13 examined isolates represented influenza A viruses possessing H3 subtype haemagglutinin very similar to haemagglutinin of influenza viruses A/Bangkok/1/79 (H3N2), A/Belgium/2/81 (H3N2) and A/Philippines/2/82 (H3N2). (author)

  16. Numerous cerebral hemorrhages in a patient with influenza-associated encephalitis: A case report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Ji Ye; Seong, Su Ok; Park, Noh Hyuck; Park, Chan Sup [Dept. of Radiology, Myongji Hospital, Goyang (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-02-15

    Influenza-associated encephalitis (IAE) is a complication of a common disease that is rare even during an epidemic. Awareness of magnetic resonance imaging features of IAE is important in treatment planning and prognosis estimation. Several reports have described necrotizing encephalopathy in children with influenza. However, few reports have described multifocal hemorrhages in both cerebral hemispheres in adults with concomitant infection with influenza A and B. Here, we describe a case of influenza A- and B-associated encephalitis accompanied by numerous cerebral hemorrhages.

  17. Influenza Neuraminidase

    OpenAIRE

    Air, Gillian M

    2011-01-01

    Influenza neuraminidase is the target of two licensed antivirals that have been very successful, with several more in development. However, neuraminidase has been largely ignored as a vaccine target despite evidence that inclusion of neuraminidase in the subunit vaccine gives increased protection. This article describes current knowledge on the structure, enzyme activity and antigenic significance of neuraminidase.

  18. Influenza, 1918

    OpenAIRE

    Wilson, Iain H.

    2005-01-01

    The worst recorded influenza outbreak took place in 1918, when my uncle, Dr Jules S Martin, was a young doctor in the Royal Army Medical Corps in Mozambique. This letter from his commanding officer gives an insight into the horror of the experience

  19. The Oral Cancer Epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bregman, Jonathan A

    2016-01-01

    The incidence of oral cancer is increasing every year. The issues that this epidemic brings are as wide ranging as changes in patient/community education, dental practice systems/ protocols, risk management and investigating new technologies for enhanced detection. The dentist, along with the entire dental team, must continually make every effort to save lives through early detection along with educating patients and our communities about the risk factors for oral cancer. With everyone's efforts, we can stop the growth of this terrible epidemic. PMID:27220177

  20. Recurrence of Panic Attacks after Influenza Vaccination: Two Case Reports

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Han-Joon; Jeon, Sang-Won; Yoon, Ho-Kyoung

    2016-01-01

    Human influenza is a contagious respiratory illness caused by the influenza virus. The influenza vaccination is recommended annually, but several adverse effects related to allergic reactions have been reported. Panic attacks are also known to occur, but no case of a panic attack adverse effect has been reported in South Korea. We present two cases of panic disorder patients whose symptoms were aggravated by the influenza vaccination. We assumed that dysregulation of T-lymphocytes in panic disorder patients could have a role in activating various kinds of cytokines and chemokines, which then can lead to panic attack aggravation. PMID:27776395

  1. Epidemic Intelligence. Langmuir and the Birth of Disease Surveillance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lyle Fearnley

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available In the wake of the SARS and influenza epidemics of the past decade, one public health solution has become a refrain: surveillance systems for detection of disease outbreaks. This paper is an effort to understand how disease surveillance for outbreak detection gained such paramount rationality in contemporary public health. The epidemiologist Alexander Langmuir is well known as the creator of modern disease surveillance. But less well known is how he imagined disease surveillance as one part of what he called “epidemic intelligence.” Langmuir developed the practice of disease surveillance during an unprecedented moment in which the threat of biological warfare brought civil defense experts and epidemiologists together around a common problem. In this paper, I describe how Langmuir navigated this world, experimenting with new techniques and rationales of epidemic control. Ultimately, I argue, Langmuir′s experiments resulted in a set of techniques and infrastructures – a system of epidemic intelligence – that transformed the epidemic as an object of human art.

  2. Influenza Vaccination of Persons with Cardiovascular Disease in the United States

    OpenAIRE

    Singleton, James A.; Wortley, Pascale; Lu, Peng-jun

    2004-01-01

    People who have cardiovascular disease are at increased risk of hospitalization or death associated with influenza infection, and are included among the high-risk groups for whom annual influenza vaccination is recommended. To measure the progress toward the national year 2000 and 2010 objectives of a 60% annual influenza vaccination of adults with high-risk conditions aged 18 to 64 years, we analyzed data from the 1997 to 2001 National Health Interview Surveys (NHIS) regarding persons with c...

  3. Influenza - flu

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valčić Miroslav A.

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available In epidemiology or in epizootiology, there are some infectious diseases that have potential for significant reduction of the susceptible species population. Over the past few decades, epidemiologists were concentrated on diseases that were 'modern' and made front-page news in tabloids. One should recall diseases like bovine spongiform encephalopathy, SARS and AIDS syndromes. However, we should always be aware of the most dangerous diseases such as our old friend, influenza, or simply, flu. In the past decade, we heard about 'bird' or 'swine' influenza. It is the same disease for different animal species as well as for man. Influenza owes its characteristics to specific virus biology as well as to the epidemiology-epizootiology characteristics of the susceptible species. Antigenic changes that took place thanks to reassortment mechanisms of the viral gene segments cause the onset of the new antigenic combinations of the hemaglutinin and neuraminidase molecules. As a result, new H and/or N antigenic formulas appear for the first time in totally susceptible animal and human populations. That means that in such circumstances, no person in the world is immune to the virus. In that case, such a virus can cause a pandemic with disastrous consequences since influenza is a disease with significant mortality, especially in some segments of the human (as well as animal population. Birds and swine are virus reservoirs, but these species are at the same time live test tubes in which the virus resides, changes and adapts itself not only to the original species but to other species as well. That means that there is no 'bird' or 'swine' flu. Influenza is an infection of several important animal species as well as man that have potential not only for the reduction of the population size but, in case of the human population, for influencing social and economic life. .

  4. Optimal pandemic influenza vaccine allocation strategies for the Canadian population.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ashleigh R Tuite

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The world is currently confronting the first influenza pandemic of the 21(st century. Influenza vaccination is an effective preventive measure, but the unique epidemiological features of swine-origin influenza A (H1N1 (pH1N1 introduce uncertainty as to the best strategy for prioritization of vaccine allocation. We sought to determine optimal prioritization of vaccine distribution among different age and risk groups within the Canadian population, to minimize influenza-attributable morbidity and mortality. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We developed a deterministic, age-structured compartmental model of influenza transmission, with key parameter values estimated from data collected during the initial phase of the epidemic in Ontario, Canada. We examined the effect of different vaccination strategies on attack rates, hospitalizations, intensive care unit admissions, and mortality. In all scenarios, prioritization of high-risk individuals (those with underlying chronic conditions and pregnant women, regardless of age, markedly decreased the frequency of severe outcomes. When individuals with underlying medical conditions were not prioritized and an age group-based approach was used, preferential vaccination of age groups at increased risk of severe outcomes following infection generally resulted in decreased mortality compared to targeting vaccine to age groups with higher transmission, at a cost of higher population-level attack rates. All simulations were sensitive to the timing of the epidemic peak in relation to vaccine availability, with vaccination having the greatest impact when it was implemented well in advance of the epidemic peak. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our model simulations suggest that vaccine should be allocated to high-risk groups, regardless of age, followed by age groups at increased risk of severe outcomes. Vaccination may significantly reduce influenza-attributable morbidity and mortality, but the benefits are

  5. Latitude-based approach for detecting aberrations of hand, foot, and mouth disease epidemics

    OpenAIRE

    Tang, Jia-Hong; Chan, Ta-Chien; SHIGEMATSU Mika; Hwang, Jing-Shiang

    2015-01-01

    Background Epidemics of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) among children in East Asia have been a serious annual public health problem. Previous studies in China and island-type territories in East Asia showed that the onset of HFMD epidemics evolved with increased latitude. Based on the natural characteristics of the epidemics, we developed regression models for issuing aberration alerts and predictions. Methods HFMD sentinel surveillance data from 2008 to 2014 in Japan are used in this st...

  6. A nice day for an infection? Weather conditions and social contact patterns relevant to influenza transmission.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Willem, Lander; Van Kerckhove, Kim; Chao, Dennis L; Hens, Niel; Beutels, Philippe

    2012-01-01

    Although there is no doubt that significant morbidity and mortality occur during annual influenza epidemics, the role of contextual circumstances, which catalyze seasonal influenza transmission, remains unclear. Weather conditions are believed to affect virus survival, efficiency of transmission and host immunity, but seasonality may also be driven by a tendency of people to congregate indoors during periods of bad weather. To test this hypothesis, we combined data from a social contact survey in Belgium with local weather data. In the absence of a previous in-depth weather impact analysis of social contact patterns, we explored the possibilities and identified pitfalls. We found general dominance of day-type (weekend, holiday, working day) over weather conditions, but nonetheless observed an increase in long duration contacts ([Formula: see text]1 hour) on regular workdays with low temperatures, almost no precipitation and low absolute humidity of the air. Interestingly, these conditions are often assumed to be beneficial for virus survival and transmission. Further research is needed to establish the impact of the weather on social contacts. We recommend that future studies sample over a broad spectrum of weather conditions and day types and include a sufficiently large proportion of holiday periods and weekends. PMID:23155399

  7. A nice day for an infection? Weather conditions and social contact patterns relevant to influenza transmission.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lander Willem

    Full Text Available Although there is no doubt that significant morbidity and mortality occur during annual influenza epidemics, the role of contextual circumstances, which catalyze seasonal influenza transmission, remains unclear. Weather conditions are believed to affect virus survival, efficiency of transmission and host immunity, but seasonality may also be driven by a tendency of people to congregate indoors during periods of bad weather. To test this hypothesis, we combined data from a social contact survey in Belgium with local weather data. In the absence of a previous in-depth weather impact analysis of social contact patterns, we explored the possibilities and identified pitfalls. We found general dominance of day-type (weekend, holiday, working day over weather conditions, but nonetheless observed an increase in long duration contacts ([Formula: see text]1 hour on regular workdays with low temperatures, almost no precipitation and low absolute humidity of the air. Interestingly, these conditions are often assumed to be beneficial for virus survival and transmission. Further research is needed to establish the impact of the weather on social contacts. We recommend that future studies sample over a broad spectrum of weather conditions and day types and include a sufficiently large proportion of holiday periods and weekends.

  8. Dynamics of public opinion under the influence of epidemic spreading

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Junhui; Ni, Shunjiang; Shen, Shifei

    2016-02-01

    In this paper, we propose a novel model with dynamically adjusted confidence level of others to investigate the propagation of public opinion on whether to buy chicken in the case of avian influenza infection in humans. We study how people adjust their confidence level in other people’s opinions according to their perceived infection risk and how the opinion evolution and epidemic spreading affect each other on different complex networks by taking into account the spreading feature of avian influenza, that is, only people who buy chicken are possible to be infected. The simulation results show that in a closed system, people who support buying chicken and people who are infected can achieve a dynamic balance after a few time-steps, and the final stable state is mainly dependent on the level of people’s risk perception, rather than the initial distribution of the different opinions. Our results imply that in the course of the epidemic spread, transparent and timely announcement of the number of infections and the risk of infection can help people take the right self-protection actions, and thus help control the spread of avian influenza.

  9. The Obesity Epidemic

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2011-07-18

    Learn about obesity and the community initiatives taking place to prevent and reduce this epidemic.  Created: 7/18/2011 by National Center for Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion, Division of Nutrition, Physical Activity and Obesity.   Date Released: 7/18/2011.

  10. The scourge of Asian Flu: in utero exposure to pandemic influenza and the development of a cohort of British children

    OpenAIRE

    Kelly, Elaine

    2009-01-01

    This paper examines the impact of in utero exposure to the Asian influenza pandemic of 1957 upon physical and cognitive development in childhood. Outcome data is provided by the National Child Development Study (NCDS), a panel study of a cohort of British children who were all potentially exposed in the womb. Epidemic effects are identified using geographic variation in a surrogate measure of the epidemic. Results indicate significant detrimental effects of the epidemic upon birth weight and ...

  11. Cyber Epidemic Models with Dependences

    OpenAIRE

    Xu, Maochao; Da, Gaofeng; Xu, Shouhuai

    2016-01-01

    Studying models of cyber epidemics over arbitrary complex networks can deepen our understanding of cyber security from a whole-system perspective. In this paper, we initiate the investigation of cyber epidemic models that accommodate the {\\em dependences} between the cyber attack events. Due to the notorious difficulty in dealing with such dependences, essentially all existing cyber epidemic models have assumed them away. Specifically, we introduce the idea of Copulas into cyber epidemic mode...

  12. Pandemic influenza and the hospitalist: apocalypse when?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pile, James C; Gordon, Steven M

    2006-03-01

    Beginning with a cluster of human cases in Hong Kong in 1997, avian influenza (H5N1) has spread progressively through, and beyond, Asia in poultry and other birds; and has resulted in sporadic cases of human disease associated with high mortality. The potential for H5N1 influenza to cause a pandemic of human disease continues to be the subject of intense scrutiny by both the media and the scientific community. While the likelihood of such a prospect is uncertain, the inevitability of future pandemics of influenza is clear. Planning for the eventuality of a virulent influenza pandemic at the local, national and global level is critical to limiting the mortality and morbidity of such an occurrence. Hospitalists have a key role to play in institutional efforts to prepare for a influenza pandemic, and should be aware of lessons that my be applied from both the response to Hurricane Katrina, as well as the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) epidemic. PMID:17219482

  13. Molecular basis of live-attenuated influenza virus.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wen He

    Full Text Available Human influenza is a seasonal disease associated with significant morbidity and mortality. The most effective means for controlling infection and thereby reducing morbidity and mortality is vaccination with a three inactivated influenza virus strains mixture, or by intranasal administration of a group of three different live attenuated influenza vaccine strains. Comparing to the inactivated vaccine, the attenuated live viruses allow better elicitation of a long-lasting and broader immune (humoral and cellular response that represents a naturally occurring transient infection. The cold-adapted (ca influenza A/AA/6/60 (H2N2 (AA ca virus is the backbone for the live attenuated trivalent seasonal influenza vaccine licensed in the United States. Similarly, the influenza A components of live-attenuated vaccines used in Russia have been prepared as reassortants of the cold-adapted (ca H2N2 viruses, A/Leningrad/134/17/57-ca (Len/17 and A/Leningrad/134/47/57-ca (Len/47 along with virulent epidemic strains. However, the mechanism of temperature-sensitive attenuation is largely elusive. To understand how modification at genetic level of influenza virus would result in attenuation of human influenza virus A/PR/8/34 (H1N1,A/PR8, we investigated the involvement of key mutations in the PB1 and/or PB2 genes in attenuation of influenza virus in vitro and in vivo. We have demonstrated that a few of residues in PB1 and PB2 are critical for the phenotypes of live attenuated, temperature sensitive influenza viruses by minigenome assay and real-time PCR. The information of these mutation loci could be used for elucidation of mechanism of temperature-sensitive attenuation and as a new strategy for influenza vaccine development.

  14. Pandemisk influenza

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Nina Blom; Almlund, Pernille

    danske myndigheder kommunikerede åbent og løbende om influenza-krisen og dens trusler. Indsatsen blev anerkendt fra alle sider og førte på intet tidspunkt til alvorlig og længerevarende kritik af myndighederne. Der var tale om en tilfredsstillende krisehåndtering, hvad angår den del, der fokuserede på...... kommunikation om denne tog en drejning i forhold til selve influenza-krisen. Myndighedernes kommunikation blev mere uklar, forvirringen voksede i befolkningen, og der blev rejst kritik i offentligheden. Forløbet rejser spørgsmålene om, den samlede håndtering af kommunikationsindsatsen kunne have været mere...

  15. Targeting influenza in Kentucky.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bennett, John M; Casey, Baretta; Samuels, Michael E; Whitler, Elmer

    2007-12-01

    Kentucky has the 5th highest influenza-related death rate in the United States with about 1000 Kentuckians dying each year from complications of influenza. The majority of these patients are in identifiable risk groups for complications of influenza. Yearly immunizations with the influenza vaccine reduce the risk for hospitalization and death.

  16. Influenza Vaccines

    OpenAIRE

    Ellebedy, A. H.; Webby, R J

    2009-01-01

    Influenza A viruses pose a substantial threat to the human population whether by purposeful manipulation and release or by the natural process of interspecies transmissions from animal reservoirs. The challenge with preparing for these events with vaccination strategies is that the best forms of protective immunity target the most variably of the viral proteins, hemagglutinin. Add to this even just the natural extent of variation in this protein and the challenges to vaccinologists become gre...

  17. Avian influenza

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tjandra Y. Aditama

    2006-06-01

    Full Text Available Avian influenza, or “bird flu”, is a contagious disease of animals which crossed the species barrier to infect humans and gave a quite impact on public health in the world since 2004, especially due to the threat of pandemic situation. Until 1st March 2006, laboratory-confirmed human cases have been reported in seven countries: Cambodia, Indonesia, Thailand, Viet Nam, China, Iraq and Turkey with a total of 174 cases and 94 dead (54.02%. Indonesia has 27 cases, 20 were dead (74.07%. AI cases in Indonesia are more in male (62.5% and all have a symptom of fever. An influenza pandemic is a rare but recurrent event. An influenza pandemic happens when a new subtype emerges that has not previously circulated in humans. For this reason, avian H5N1 is a strain with pandemic potential, since it might ultimately adapt into a strain that is contagious among humans. Impact of the pandemic could include high rates of illness and worker absenteeism are expected, and these will contribute to social and economic disruption. Historically, the number of deaths during a pandemic has varied greatly. Death rates are largely determined by four factors: the number of people who become infected, the virulence of the virus, the underlying characteristics and vulnerability of affected populations, and the effectiveness of preventive measures. Accurate predictions of mortality cannot be made before the pandemic virus emerges and begins to spread. (Med J Indones 2006; 15:125-8Keywords: Avian Influenza, Pandemic

  18. Influenza A Virus Entry Inhibitors Targeting the Hemagglutinin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shuwen Liu

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Influenza A virus (IAV has caused seasonal influenza epidemics and influenza pandemics, which resulted in serious threat to public health and socioeconomic impacts. Until now, only 5 drugs belong to two categories are used for prophylaxis and treatment of IAV infection. Hemagglutinin (HA, the envelope glycoprotein of IAV, plays a critical role in viral binding, fusion and entry. Therefore, HA is an attractive target for developing anti‑IAV drugs to block the entry step of IAV infection. Here we reviewed the recent progress in the study of conformational changes of HA during viral fusion process and the development of HA-based IAV entry inhibitors, which may provide a new choice for controlling future influenza pandemics.

  19. A household survey to assess the burden of influenza in rural Thailand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clague, Birgit; Chamany, Shadi; Burapat, Channawong; Wannachaiwong, Yupapan; Simmerman, J Mark; Dowell, Scott F; Olsen, Sonja J

    2006-05-01

    Little is known about the disease burden of influenza in middle-income tropical countries like Thailand. The recent outbreak of avian influenza (H5N1) and studies on influenza from neighboring countries highlight the need for data on incidence, access to care, and health care cost. In May/ June 2003, we conducted a province-wide household survey using two-stage cluster sampling to determine the burden of influenza-like illness in Sa Kaeo Province. We used the total number of reported influenza that occurred in May 2003 and a prospective study of outpatient influenza in clinic patients to develop an estimate of the annualized incidence of influenza. Of 718 subjects, 16 (2.2%) suffered an episode of influenza-like illness in the preceding month; 14 sought care, of whom 7 went to a hospital facility. Fifty percent reported missing on average 3 days of work or school. The total individual cost per illness episode was 663 baht (15.78 US dollars). The proportion of outpatients with influenza-like illness caused by an influenza virus in May was 16% and the annualized influenza incidence was estimated to be 5,941/100,000 in Sa Kaeo Province. This survey adds to information indicating that in rural Thailand, the burden of influenza is substantial and costs associated with an illness episode are up to 20% of an average monthly income. PMID:17120968

  20. Resilience of epidemics on networks

    CERN Document Server

    Lu, Dan; Zhang, Jiaquan; Wang, Huijuan; Li, Daqing

    2016-01-01

    Epidemic propagation on complex networks has been widely investigated, mostly with invariant parameters. However, the process of epidemic propagation is not always constant. Epidemics can be affected by various perturbations, and may bounce back to its original state, which is considered resilient. Here, we study the resilience of epidemics on networks, by introducing a different infection rate ${\\lambda_{2}}$ during SIS (susceptible-infected-susceptible) epidemic propagation to model perturbations (control state), whereas the infection rate is ${\\lambda_{1}}$ in the rest of time. Through simulations and theoretical analysis, we find that even for ${\\lambda_{2}<\\lambda_{c}}$, epidemics eventually could bounce back if control duration is below a threshold. This critical control time for epidemic resilience, i.e., ${cd_{max}}$ can be predicted by the diameter (${d}$) of the underlying network, with the quantitative relation ${cd_{max}\\sim d^{\\alpha}}$. Our findings can help to design a better mitigation stra...

  1. The Influenza Virus Enigma

    OpenAIRE

    Salomon, Rachelle; Webster, Robert G.

    2009-01-01

    Both seasonal and pandemic influenza continue to challenge both scientists and clinicians. Drug-resistant H1N1 influenza viruses have dominated the 2009 flu season, and the H5N1 avian influenza virus continues to kill both people and poultry in Eurasia. Here, we discuss the pathogenesis and transmissibility of influenza viruses and we emphasize the need to find better predictors of both seasonal and potentially pandemic influenza.

  2. Blood Screening for Influenza

    OpenAIRE

    Hourfar, Michael Kai; Themann, Anna; Eickmann, Markus; Puthavathana, Pilaipan; Laue, Thomas; Seifried, Erhard; Schmidt, Michael

    2007-01-01

    Influenza viruses, including highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (H5N1), could threaten blood safety. We analyzed 10,272 blood donor samples with a minipool nucleic acid amplication technique. Analytical sensitivity of the method was 804 geq/mL and 444 geq/mL for generic influenza primers and influenza (H5N1) subtype–specific primers. This study demonstrates that such screening for influenza viruses is feasible.

  3. Advances in influenza vaccination

    OpenAIRE

    Reperant, Leslie A.; Rimmelzwaan, Guus F.; Osterhaus, Albert D. M. E.

    2014-01-01

    Influenza virus infections yearly cause high morbidity and mortality burdens in humans, and the development of a new influenza pandemic continues to threaten mankind as a Damoclean sword. Influenza vaccines have been produced by using egg-based virus growth and passaging techniques that were developed more than 60 years ago, following the identification of influenza A virus as an etiological agent of seasonal influenza. These vaccines aimed mainly at eliciting neutralizing antibodies targetin...

  4. Study of the radiation effects on nucleic acids and related compounds. Annual progress report, August 15, 1974--August 14, 1975. [X radiation, hamster cells, Haemophilus influenzae

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, S.Y.

    1975-01-01

    Interest is being centered on the chemical and physical nature of radiation-induced lesions to nucleic acids and their components. These investigations have revealed the enormous complexity of chemical events in these systems and the possible degradation of nucleic acids by strand breakage. Therefore, work in the ionizing radiation of DNA and its components has proceeded along a dual course. For chemical studies, our prime concern is the stepwise isolation and identification of the radiation products of derivatives of pyrimidines and the study of the actual mechanisms of their formation. For biological studies, H. influenzae cells, the Chinese hamster V79B-1 cell line, and the Dunn osteosarcoma lung colony system were used. During the last year, the method of synthesis of 5-hydroperoxymethyluracil (T/sub ..cap alpha../OOH) was greatly improved. Large-scale preparation of 5-hydroxy-6-hydroperoxy-5,6-dihydrothymine (T/sup 6/OOH) were carried out in order to study the action of T/sup 6/OOH on neighboring bases, glycosidic bond-breakage, cell mutagenesis, chromosomal aberrations, and possible synergistic effects on x radiation. These results allow one to relate radiobiological effects with radiation chemical changes in DNA.

  5. The influence of meteorology on the spread of influenza: survival analysis of an equine influenza (A/H3N8) outbreak.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Firestone, Simon M; Cogger, Naomi; Ward, Michael P; Toribio, Jenny-Ann L M L; Moloney, Barbara J; Dhand, Navneet K

    2012-01-01

    The influences of relative humidity and ambient temperature on the transmission of influenza A viruses have recently been established under controlled laboratory conditions. The interplay of meteorological factors during an actual influenza epidemic is less clear, and research into the contribution of wind to epidemic spread is scarce. By applying geostatistics and survival analysis to data from a large outbreak of equine influenza (A/H3N8), we quantified the association between hazard of infection and air temperature, relative humidity, rainfall, and wind velocity, whilst controlling for premises-level covariates. The pattern of disease spread in space and time was described using extraction mapping and instantaneous hazard curves. Meteorological conditions at each premises location were estimated by kriging daily meteorological data and analysed as time-lagged time-varying predictors using generalised Cox regression. Meteorological covariates time-lagged by three days were strongly associated with hazard of influenza infection, corresponding closely with the incubation period of equine influenza. Hazard of equine influenza infection was higher when relative humidity was 30 km hour(-1) from the direction of nearby infected premises were associated with increased hazard of infection. Through combining detailed influenza outbreak and meteorological data, we provide empirical evidence for the underlying environmental mechanisms that influenced the local spread of an outbreak of influenza A. Our analysis supports, and extends, the findings of studies into influenza A transmission conducted under laboratory conditions. The relationships described are of direct importance for managing disease risk during influenza outbreaks in horses, and more generally, advance our understanding of the transmission of influenza A viruses under field conditions.

  6. Segurança, imunogenicidade e eficácia da vacina contra o vírus influenza em crianças Safety, immunogenicity and efficacy of influenza vaccine in children

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Otávio A. L. Cintra

    2006-07-01

    search of the medical literature indexed on MEDLINE, LILACS and in the Cochrane Library. Review articles, clinical trials and epidemiological studies published from 1990 to 2006 were selected for analysis. SUMMARY OF THE FINDINGS: Influenza is an infectious disease that is both universal and seasonal, with incidence in all age groups and annual epidemics characterized by excessive morbidity and mortality. The elderly and people with comorbidity are high risk groups for severe influenza. It has recently been proven that healthy infants suffer similar morbidity to other risk groups, and therefore vaccination against influenza is indicated for them too, as being the most effective means of preventing infection by the influenza virus. The safety of influenza vaccines in children appears adequate, with the most often observed adverse effects being local reactions or fever. Immunogenicity in children varies from 30 to 90%, being directly proportional to age. Efficacy depends on the primary objective and can range from levels comparable with placebo to up to 91% efficacy against confirmed influenza A infection. Schoolchildren play an important role in the dissemination of the influenza virus, and population studies have demonstrated herd immunity. CONCLUSIONS: Trivalent influenza vaccines, whether inactivated or attenuated, have low reactogenicity and offer variable immunogenicity and efficacy in children. Vaccination is effective for prevention of infections by the influenza virus and for reducing morbidity. More powerful studies of efficacy and safety in infants are still required.

  7. Proximity Networks and Epidemics

    CERN Document Server

    Toroczkai, Z

    2007-01-01

    Disease spread in most biological populations requires the proximity of agents. In populations where the individuals have spatial mobility, the contact graph is generated by the "collision dynamics" of the agents, and thus the evolution of epidemics couples directly to the spatial dynamics of the population. We first briefly review the properties and the methodology of an agent-based simulation (EPISIMS) to model disease spread in realistic urban dynamic contact networks. Using the data generated by this simulation, we introduce the notion of dynamic proximity networks which takes into account the relevant time scales for disease spread: contact duration, infectivity period and rate of contact creation. This approach promises to be a good candidate for a unified treatment of epidemic types that are driven by agent collision dynamics. In particular, using a simple model, we show that it can can account for the observed qualitative differences between the degree distributions of contact graphs of diseases with ...

  8. Critical care during epidemics

    OpenAIRE

    Rubinson, Lewis; O'Toole, Tara

    2005-01-01

    We recommend several actions that could improve hospitals' abilities to deliver critical care during epidemics involving large numbers of victims. In the absence of careful pre-event planning, demand for critical care services may quickly exceed available intensive care unit (ICU) staff, beds and equipment, leaving the bulk of the infected populace without benefit of potentially lifesaving critical care. The toll of death may be inversely proportional to the ability to augment critical care c...

  9. Influenza vaccination in children at high risk of respiratory disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patria, Maria Francesca; Tagliabue, Claudia; Longhi, Benedetta; Esposito, Susanna

    2013-05-01

    Chronic respiratory diseases (CRDs) are a heterogeneous group of diseases that can affect the pediatric population and health authorities throughout the world recommend influenza vaccination because of the significant risk of influenza-related complications. However, despite this recommendation, vaccine coverage is generally unsatisfactory. The aim of this review is to analyze the impact of influenza on children at high risk of respiratory disease, and the immunogenicity, safety and efficacy of influenza vaccination in such children. The results show that there is a significant risk of influenza-related complications in preterm neonates and infants, in whom influenza vaccines are immunogenic and safe (although their efficacy has not been specifically studied). There are conflicting data concerning the effect of influenza infection on asthma morbidity in children, and whether or not influenza vaccination helps to prevent asthma exacerbations. Recent data provide no evidence that influenza is more frequent in patients with cystic fibrosis than in healthy subjects, or that it is responsible for increased lower respiratory tract morbidity. The lack of any clear correlate of protection suggests that future studies should also consider the efficacy of the different influenza vaccines and not only evaluate them in terms of immunogenicity. Furthermore, there is a need for clinical studies to assess the effectiveness of the available vaccines in patients with other rare CRDs and other chronic underlying diseases with possibly severe respiratory involvement. It is also important to determine whether children with recurrent respiratory tract infections should be included in the list of those for whom influenza vaccination is recommended. In the meantime, given the increasing evidence of the burden of influenza on the population as a whole and the benefits associated with vaccination, annual influenza vaccinations should be recommended for all children at high risk of

  10. Gnarled-trunk evolutionary model of influenza A virus hemagglutinin.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kimihito Ito

    Full Text Available Human influenza A viruses undergo antigenic changes with gradual accumulation of amino acid substitutions on the hemagglutinin (HA molecule. A strong antigenic mismatch between vaccine and epidemic strains often requires the replacement of influenza vaccines worldwide. To establish a practical model enabling us to predict the future direction of the influenza virus evolution, relative distances of amino acid sequences among past epidemic strains were analyzed by multidimensional scaling (MDS. We found that human influenza viruses have evolved along a gnarled evolutionary pathway with an approximately constant curvature in the MDS-constructed 3D space. The gnarled pathway indicated that evolution on the trunk favored multiple substitutions at the same amino acid positions on HA. The constant curvature was reasonably explained by assuming that the rate of amino acid substitutions varied from one position to another according to a gamma distribution. Furthermore, we utilized the estimated parameters of the gamma distribution to predict the amino acid substitutions on HA in subsequent years. Retrospective prediction tests for 12 years from 1997 to 2009 showed that 70% of actual amino acid substitutions were correctly predicted, and that 45% of predicted amino acid substitutions have been actually observed. Although it remains unsolved how to predict the exact timing of antigenic changes, the present results suggest that our model may have the potential to recognize emerging epidemic strains.

  11. Epidemics with pathogen mutation on small-world networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shao, Zhi-Gang; Tan, Zhi-Jie; Zou, Xian-Wu; Jin, Zhun-Zhi

    2006-05-01

    We study the dynamical behavior of the epidemiological model with pathogen mutation on small-world networks, and discuss the influence of the immunity duration τR, the cross-immunity threshold hthr, and system size N on epidemic dynamics. A decaying oscillation occurs because of the interplay between the immune response and the pathogen mutation. These results have implications for the interpretation of longitudinal epidemiological data on strain abundance, and they will be helpful to assess the threat of highly pathogenic and mutative viruses, such as avian influenza.

  12. [Chikungunya on Reunion Island: chronicle of an epidemic foretold].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paganin, Fabrice; Borgherini, Giannandrea; Staikowsky, Frédéric; Arvin-Berod, Claude; Poubeau, Patrice

    2006-04-01

    Chikungunya is a viral disease transmitted by a mosquito of the genus Aedes. It is currently epidemic on Reunion Island, in the Indian Ocean. It is essentially characterized by an influenza syndrome but associated with polyarthralgia and an eruption. The disabling and chronic nature of the arthralgia is the most remarkable clinical aspect of chikungunya infection. Severe and unusual forms have appeared, not previously described in the literature. These forms must be studied to determine whether there is a direct relation between the chikungunya virus and the severity factors. Treatment is solely symptomatic, combining analgesic and/or antiinflammatory agents. There is no vaccine. The epidemic is not limited to Reunion: cases of chikungunya have also been reported in neighboring islands (Maurice, Seychelles, and Madagascar). Travelers planning to visit the region should be counseled. PMID:16614609

  13. A Simple Measure of the Dynamics of Segmented Genomes: An Application to Influenza

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aris-Brosou, Stéphane

    The severity of influenza epidemics, which can potentially become a pandemic, has been very difficult to predict. However, past efforts were focusing on gene-by-gene approaches, while it is acknowledged that the whole genome dynamics contribute to the severity of an epidemic. Here, putting this rationale into action, I describe a simple measure of the amount of reassortment that affects influenza at a genomic scale during a particular year. The analysis of 530 complete genomes of the H1N1 subtype, sampled over eleven years, shows that the proposed measure explains 58% of the variance in the prevalence of H1 influenza in the US population. The proposed measure, denoted nRF, could therefore improve influenza surveillance programs at a minimal cost.

  14. Social deprivation and burden of influenza: Testing hypotheses and gaining insights from a simulation model for the spread of influenza.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hyder, Ayaz; Leung, Brian

    2015-06-01

    Factors associated with the burden of influenza among vulnerable populations have mainly been identified using statistical methodologies. Complex simulation models provide mechanistic explanations, in terms of spatial heterogeneity and contact rates, while controlling other factors and may be used to better understand statistical patterns and, ultimately, design optimal population-level interventions. We extended a sophisticated simulation model, which was applied to forecast epidemics and validated for predictive ability, to identify mechanisms for the empirical relationship between social deprivation and the burden of influenza. Our modeled scenarios and associated epidemic metrics systematically assessed whether neighborhood composition and/or spatial arrangement could qualitatively replicate this empirical relationship. We further used the model to determine consequences of local-scale heterogeneities on larger scale disease spread. Our findings indicated that both neighborhood composition and spatial arrangement were critical to qualitatively match the empirical relationship of interest. Also, when social deprivation was fully included in the model, we observed lower age-based attack rates and greater delay in epidemic peak week in the most socially deprived neighborhoods. Insights from simulation models complement current understandings from statistical-based association studies. Additional insights from our study are: (1) heterogeneous spatial arrangement of neighborhoods is a necessary condition for simulating observed disparities in the burden of influenza and (2) unmeasured factors may lead to a better quantitative match between simulated and observed rate ratio in the burden of influenza between the most and least socially deprived populations.

  15. Social deprivation and burden of influenza: Testing hypotheses and gaining insights from a simulation model for the spread of influenza

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ayaz Hyder

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Factors associated with the burden of influenza among vulnerable populations have mainly been identified using statistical methodologies. Complex simulation models provide mechanistic explanations, in terms of spatial heterogeneity and contact rates, while controlling other factors and may be used to better understand statistical patterns and, ultimately, design optimal population-level interventions. We extended a sophisticated simulation model, which was applied to forecast epidemics and validated for predictive ability, to identify mechanisms for the empirical relationship between social deprivation and the burden of influenza. Our modeled scenarios and associated epidemic metrics systematically assessed whether neighborhood composition and/or spatial arrangement could qualitatively replicate this empirical relationship. We further used the model to determine consequences of local-scale heterogeneities on larger scale disease spread. Our findings indicated that both neighborhood composition and spatial arrangement were critical to qualitatively match the empirical relationship of interest. Also, when social deprivation was fully included in the model, we observed lower age-based attack rates and greater delay in epidemic peak week in the most socially deprived neighborhoods. Insights from simulation models complement current understandings from statistical-based association studies. Additional insights from our study are: (1 heterogeneous spatial arrangement of neighborhoods is a necessary condition for simulating observed disparities in the burden of influenza and (2 unmeasured factors may lead to a better quantitative match between simulated and observed rate ratio in the burden of influenza between the most and least socially deprived populations.

  16. Vaccine Effectiveness Against Laboratory-Confirmed Influenza Hospitalizations Among Elderly Adults During the 2010–2011 Season

    OpenAIRE

    Jeffrey C Kwong; Campitelli, Michael A.; Gubbay, Jonathan B.; Peci, Adriana; Winter, Anne-Luise; Olsha, Romy; Turner, Robert; Rosella, Laura C.; Crowcroft, Natasha S

    2013-01-01

    Background.  Although annual influenza immunization is recommended for adults aged ≥65 years due to the substantial burden of illness, the evidence base for this recommendation is weak. Prior observational studies that examined influenza vaccine effectiveness against nonspecific serious outcomes suffered from selection bias and the lack of laboratory confirmation for influenza infection. The objective of this study was to determine the effectiveness of the 2010–2011 seasonal influenza vaccine...

  17. Modelling the spreading rate of controlled communicable epidemics through an entropy-based thermodynamic model

    CERN Document Server

    Wang, W B; Cao, Z M; Hu, R F

    2013-01-01

    A model based on a thermodynamic approach is proposed for predicting the dynamics of communicable epidemics in a city, when the epidemic is governed by controlling efforts of multiple scales so that an entropy is associated with the system. All the epidemic details are factored into a single parameter that is determined by maximizing the rate of entropy production. Despite the simplicity of the final model, it predicts the number of hospitalized cases with a reasonable accuracy, using the data of SARS of the year 2003, once the inflexion point characterizing the effect of multiple controlling efforts is known. This model is supposed to be of potential usefulness since epidemics such as avian influenza like H7H9 in China this year have the risk to become communicable among human beings.

  18. Compounds with anti-influenza activity: present and future of strategies for the optimal treatment and management of influenza. Part II: Future compounds against influenza virus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gasparini, R; Amicizia, D; Lai, P L; Bragazzi, N L; Panatto, D

    2014-12-01

    In the first part of this overview, we described the life cycle of the influenza virus and the pharmacological action of the currently available drugs. This second part provides an overview of the molecular mechanisms and targets of still-experimental drugs for the treatment and management of influenza. Briefly, we can distinguish between compounds with anti-influenza activity that target influenza virus proteins or genes, and molecules that target host components that are essential for viral replication and propagation. These latter compounds have been developed quite recently. Among the first group, we will focus especially on hemagglutinin, M2 channel and neuraminidase inhibitors. The second group of compounds may pave the way for personalized treatment and influenza management. Combination therapies are also discussed. In recent decades, few antiviral molecules against influenza virus infections have been available; this has conditioned their use during human and animal outbreaks. Indeed, during seasonal and pandemic outbreaks, antiviral drugs have usually been administered in mono-therapy and, sometimes, in an uncontrolled manner to farm animals. This has led to the emergence of viral strains displaying resistance, especially to compounds of the amantadane family. For this reason, it is particularly important to develop new antiviral drugs against influenza viruses. Indeed, although vaccination is the most powerful means of mitigating the effects of influenza epidemics, antiviral drugs can be very useful, particularly in delaying the spread of new pandemic viruses, thereby enabling manufacturers to prepare large quantities of pandemic vaccine. In addition, antiviral drugs are particularly valuable in complicated cases of influenza, especially in hospitalized patients. To write this overview, we mined various databases, including Embase, PubChem, DrugBank and Chemical Abstracts Service, and patent repositories. PMID:26137785

  19. Compounds with anti-influenza activity: present and future of strategies for the optimal treatment and management of influenza. Part II: Future compounds against influenza virus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gasparini, R; Amicizia, D; Lai, P L; Bragazzi, N L; Panatto, D

    2014-12-01

    In the first part of this overview, we described the life cycle of the influenza virus and the pharmacological action of the currently available drugs. This second part provides an overview of the molecular mechanisms and targets of still-experimental drugs for the treatment and management of influenza. Briefly, we can distinguish between compounds with anti-influenza activity that target influenza virus proteins or genes, and molecules that target host components that are essential for viral replication and propagation. These latter compounds have been developed quite recently. Among the first group, we will focus especially on hemagglutinin, M2 channel and neuraminidase inhibitors. The second group of compounds may pave the way for personalized treatment and influenza management. Combination therapies are also discussed. In recent decades, few antiviral molecules against influenza virus infections have been available; this has conditioned their use during human and animal outbreaks. Indeed, during seasonal and pandemic outbreaks, antiviral drugs have usually been administered in mono-therapy and, sometimes, in an uncontrolled manner to farm animals. This has led to the emergence of viral strains displaying resistance, especially to compounds of the amantadane family. For this reason, it is particularly important to develop new antiviral drugs against influenza viruses. Indeed, although vaccination is the most powerful means of mitigating the effects of influenza epidemics, antiviral drugs can be very useful, particularly in delaying the spread of new pandemic viruses, thereby enabling manufacturers to prepare large quantities of pandemic vaccine. In addition, antiviral drugs are particularly valuable in complicated cases of influenza, especially in hospitalized patients. To write this overview, we mined various databases, including Embase, PubChem, DrugBank and Chemical Abstracts Service, and patent repositories.

  20. Avian Influenza

    OpenAIRE

    Tjandra Y. Aditama

    2008-01-01

    Avian influenza, or “bird flu”, is a contagious disease of animals which crossed the species barrier to infect humans and gave a quite impact on public health in the world since 2004, especially due to the threat of pandemic situation. Until 1st March 2006, laboratory-confirmed human cases have been reported in seven countries: Cambodia, Indonesia, Thailand, Viet Nam, China, Iraq and Turkey with a total of 174 cases and 94 dead (54.02%). Indonesia has 27 cases, 20 were dead (74.07%). AI cases...

  1. Antiviral resistance and the control of pandemic influenza: The roles of stochasticity, evolution and model details

    OpenAIRE

    Handel, Andreas; Longini, Ira M.; Antia, Rustom

    2008-01-01

    Antiviral drugs, most notably the neuraminidase inhibitors, are an important component of control strategies aimed to prevent or limit any future influenza pandemic. The potential large-scale use of antiviral drugs brings with it the danger of drug resistance evolution. A number of recent studies have shown that the emergence of drug-resistant influenza could undermine the usefulness of antiviral drugs for the control of an epidemic or pandemic outbreak. While these studies have provided impo...

  2. Modulation of influenza virus replication by alteration of sodium ion transport and protein kinase C activity

    OpenAIRE

    Hoffmann, H.-Heinrich; Palese, Peter; Shaw, Megan L.

    2008-01-01

    In recent years, increasing levels of resistance to the four FDA-approved anti-influenza virus drugs have been described and vaccine manufacturers have experienced demands that exceed their capacity. This situation underlines the urgent need for novel antivirals as well as innovations in vaccine production in preparation for the next influenza epidemic. Here we report the development of a cell-based high-throughput screen which we have used for the identification of compounds that modulate in...

  3. Nephrotic Syndrome Following H1N1 Influenza in a 3-Year-Old Boy

    OpenAIRE

    Pio Liberatore; Francesca del Bufalo; Giorgia Bottaro; Pietro Ferrara; Antonio Gatto; Ottavio Vitelli

    2012-01-01

    Background: The pandemic influenza A/H1N1, spread through the world in 2009, producing a serious epidemic in Italy. Complications are generally limited to patients at the extremes of age (65 years) and those with comorbid medical illness. The most frequent complications of influenza involve the respiratory system.Case Presentation: A 3-year-old boy with a recent history of upper respiratory tract infection developed a nephrotic syndrome. Together with prednisone, furosemide and albumin bolus,...

  4. Heterosubtypic anti-avian H5N1 influenza antibodies in intravenous immunoglobulins from globally separate populations protect against H5N1 infection in cell culture

    OpenAIRE

    Sullivan, John S.; Selleck, Paul W.; Downton, Teena; Boehm, Ingrid; Axell, Anna-Maree; Ayob, Yasmin; Kapitza, Natalie M; Dyer, Wayne; Fitzgerald, Anna; Walsh, Bradley; Lynch, Garry W

    2009-01-01

    With antigenically novel epidemic and pandemic influenza strains persistently on the horizon it is of fundamental importance that we understand whether heterosubtypic antibodies gained from exposures to circulating human influenzas exist and can protect against emerging novel strains. Our studies of IVIG obtained from an infection-naive population (Australian) enabled us to reveal heterosubtypic influenza antibodies that cross react with H5N1. We now expand those findings for an Australian do...

  5. siRNA for Influenza Therapy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sailen Barik

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available Influenza virus is one of the most prevalent and ancient infections in humans. About a fifth of world's population is infected by influenza virus annually, leading to high morbidity and mortality, particularly in infants, the elderly and the immunocompromised. In the US alone, influenza outbreaks lead to roughly 30,000 deaths each year. Current vaccines and anti-influenza drugs are of limited use due to high mutation rate of the virus and side effects. In recent years, RNA interference, triggered by synthetic short interfering RNA (siRNA, has rapidly evolved as a potent antiviral regimen. Properly designed siRNAs have been shown to function as potent inhibitors of influenza virus replication. The siRNAs outperform traditional small molecule antivirals in a number of areas, such as ease of design, modest cost, and fast turnaround. Although specificity and tissue delivery remain major bottlenecks in the clinical applications of RNAi in general, intranasal application of siRNA against respiratory viruses including, but not limited to influenza virus, has experienced significant success and optimism, which is reviewed here.

  6. 玉溪市2009~2012年流感哨点监测流行病学和病原学分析%RESEARCH THE ETIOLOGY AND EPIDEMIOLOGY OF INFLUENZA VIRUS FROM THE SENTRY HOSPITAL IN YUXI FROM 2009 TO 2012

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    刘泽

    2013-01-01

    目的:分析玉溪市2009~2012年流感哨点医院ILI(流感样病例)监测结果,探索流感流行特征及规律,为制定预防和控制策略提供依据;方法对2009-2012年国家流感监测哨点医院发热门诊流感样病例(ILI)进行流行病学分布研究,通过实验室分离培养流感病毒,并对流感病毒型别检测和分析;结果2009~2012年,ILI占门诊总数百分率平均为4.25%,年平均采样数为762,标本占ILI百分率平均为6.56%,每年1~3月、10~12月呈现两个发病高峰,ILl主要集中青壮年人群,职业分布以农民和学生为主,流感病毒型别流行特点:2009~2010年以新型甲型H1N1流行为主,2010~2011年以B型流感Victory系列流行为主,2012年以季节流感H3N2l流行为主;结论对玉溪市2009~2012年流感病毒的监测,发现具有时间、人群和不同型别的流行特点,结合实验室结果科学合理地使用疫苗,积极预防和控制流感病毒的流行。%Objective:To study the influenza epidemic characteristics and regularity, by analyzing the results of sentry hospital ILI(Influenza-like illness)from 2009 to 2012 in Yuxi, and to provide the prevention and control process. Methods:The ILI and its epidemiology from the fever outpatient were investigated, influenza virus was isolated and cultured, and the types were analyzed in the laboratory. Results:From 2009 to 2012, the ILI average percentage was 4.25%of the total outpatient, the annual average samples were 762 with the percentage of 6.56%. The periods from January to March and October to December were two incidence peaks. It concentrated on the youth and middle-aged, whose occupations mainly were farmers and students. The epidemiological features of influenza virus were as follow, influenza A (H1N1) pdm09 virus was epidemic in 2009 and 2010, influenza B virus of Victory series was epidemic in 2010 and 2011, influenza A (H3N2) was epidemic in 2012. Conclusion

  7. Effectiveness of 2010/2011 seasonal influenza vaccine in Ireland.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Barret, A S

    2012-02-01

    We conducted a case-control study to estimate the 2010\\/2011 trivalent influenza vaccine effectiveness (TIVE) using the Irish general practitioners\\' influenza sentinel surveillance scheme. Cases were influenza-like illness (ILI) patients with laboratory-confirmed influenza. Controls were ILI patients who tested negative for influenza. Participating sentinel general practitioners (GP) collected swabs from patients presenting with ILI along with their vaccination history and other individual characteristics. The TIVE was computed as (1 - odds ratiofor vaccination) x100%. Of 60 sentinel GP practices, 22 expressed interest in participating in the study and 17 (28%) recruited at least one ILI patient. In the analysis, we included 106 cases and 85 controls. Seven controls (8.2%) and one influenza case (0.9%) had been vaccinated in 2010\\/2011. The estimated TIVE against any influenza subtype was 89.4% [95% CI: 13.8; 99.8%], suggesting a protective effect against GP-attended laboratory confirmed influenza. This study design could be used to monitor influenza vaccine effectiveness annually but sample size and vaccination coverage should be increased to obtain precise and adjusted estimates.

  8. A Step Closer to Meeting the Threat of Avian Influenza

    OpenAIRE

    Suguitan, Amorsolo L.; McAuliffe, Josephine; Mills, Kimberly L; Jin, Hong; Duke, Greg; Lu, Bin; Luke, Catherine J.; Murphy, Brian; David E Swayne; Kemble, George; Subbarao, Kanta

    2006-01-01

    Editors' Summary Background. Influenza A viruses are classified into subtypes according to two of the proteins from the virus surface, the hemagglutinin (HA) and neuraminidase (NA) proteins, each of which occurs naturally in several different versions. For example, the global epidemic (pandemic) of 1918–1919 was caused by an influenza virus containing subtype 1 hemagglutinin and subtype 1 neuraminidase (H1N1), the 1957–1958 pandemic involved an H2N2 virus, and the 1969 pandemic, H3N2. Since 1...

  9. Swine Influenza Viruses – Evolution and Zoonotic Potential

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fobian, Kristina

    Influenza A virus (IAV) is an important respiratory pathogen with a broad host range. The natural reservoir for IAV is waterfowls, but both human and swine are considered natural hosts. During the past century IAV has caused severe pandemics as well as seasonal epidemics in the human population....... In pigs, swine influenza virus (SIV) is endemic worldwide and is associated with economic losses for the farmer due to the impact on pig health causing lowered production. Swine has been shown to be susceptible to infection with IAVs of different host origin and has hence been considered as potential...

  10. Modeling the Worldwide Spread of Pandemic Influenza: Baseline Case and Containment Interventions

    OpenAIRE

    Vittoria Colizza; Alain Barrat; Marc Barthelemy; Alain-Jacques Valleron; Alessandro Vespignani

    2007-01-01

    Editors' Summary Background. Seasonal outbreaks (epidemics) of influenza—a viral infection of the nose, throat, and airways—affect millions of people and kill about 500,000 individuals every year. Regular epidemics occur because flu viruses frequently make small changes in the viral proteins (antigens) recognized by the human immune system. Consequently, a person's immune-system response that combats influenza one year provides incomplete protection the next year. Occasionally, a human influe...

  11. Prevention and treatment of influenza in the primary care office.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Golovyan, Dmitriy M; Mossad, Sherif B

    2014-03-01

    Influenza, a common respiratory infection, is a source of significant rates of illness, death, and loss of productivity. Annual vaccination is safe and effective in preventing disease and in reducing its severity. Yet a majority of eligible US adults do not receive the annual vaccine, at least in part because of misunderstandings about adverse reactions and clinical effectiveness. PMID:24591474

  12. Avian influenza viruses - new causative a gents of human infections

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hrnjaković-Cvjetković Ivana

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction. Influenza A viruses can infect humans, some mammals and especially birds. Subtypes of human influenza A viruses: ACH1N1, ACH2N2 and A(H3N2 have caused pandemics. Avian influenza viruses vary owing to their 15 hemagglutinins (H and 9 neuraminidases (N. Human cases of avian influenza A In the Netherlands in 2003, there were 83 human cases of influenza A (H7N7. In 1997, 18 cases of H5N1 influenza A, of whom 6 died, were found among residents of Hong Kong. In 2004, 34 human cases (23 deaths were reported in Viet Nam and Thailand. H5N1 virus-infected patients presented with fever and respiratory symptoms. Complications included respiratory distress syndrome, renal failure, liver dysfunction and hematologic disorders. Since 1999, 7 cases of human influenza H9N2 infection have been identified in China and Hong Kong. The importance of human infection with avian influenza viruses. H5N1 virus can directly infect humans. Genetic reassortment of human and avian influenza viruses may occur in humans co infected with current human A(HIN1 or A(H3N2 subtypes and avian influenza viruses. The result would be a new influenza virus with pandemic potential. All genes of H5Nl viruses isolated from humans are of avian origin. Prevention and control. The reassortant virus containing H and N from avian and the remaining proteins from human influenza viruses will probably be used as a vaccine strain. The most important control measures are rapid destruction of all infected or exposed birds and rigorous disinfection of farms. Individuals exposed to suspected animals should receive prophylactic treatment with antivirals and annual vaccination. .

  13. Interaction of nanodiamonds materials with influenza viruses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The perspectives of the application of modern materials contained nanodiamonds (ND) are considered in this study. The interaction between detonation paniculate ND, soot and influenza A and B viruses, fragments of cDNA were analyzed at the normal conditions. It was shown that these sorbents can interact with the following viruses: reference epidemic strains of influenza A(H1N1), A(H1N1)v, A(H3N2) and B viruses circulated in the word in 2000-2010. The allantoises, concentrated viruses, cDNA can be absorbed by ND sorbents and getting removed from water solutions within 20 min. ND sorbents can be used for the preparation of antivirus filters for water solution and for future diagnostic systems in virology.

  14. Contact transmission of influenza virus between ferrets imposes a looser bottleneck than respiratory droplet transmission allowing propagation of antiviral resistance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frise, Rebecca; Bradley, Konrad; van Doremalen, Neeltje; Galiano, Monica; Elderfield, Ruth A; Stilwell, Peter; Ashcroft, Jonathan W; Fernandez-Alonso, Mirian; Miah, Shahjahan; Lackenby, Angie; Roberts, Kim L; Donnelly, Christl A; Barclay, Wendy S

    2016-01-01

    Influenza viruses cause annual seasonal epidemics and occasional pandemics. It is important to elucidate the stringency of bottlenecks during transmission to shed light on mechanisms that underlie the evolution and propagation of antigenic drift, host range switching or drug resistance. The virus spreads between people by different routes, including through the air in droplets and aerosols, and by direct contact. By housing ferrets under different conditions, it is possible to mimic various routes of transmission. Here, we inoculated donor animals with a mixture of two viruses whose genomes differed by one or two reverse engineered synonymous mutations, and measured the transmission of the mixture to exposed sentinel animals. Transmission through the air imposed a tight bottleneck since most recipient animals became infected by only one virus. In contrast, a direct contact transmission chain propagated a mixture of viruses suggesting the dose transferred by this route was higher. From animals with a mixed infection of viruses that were resistant and sensitive to the antiviral drug oseltamivir, resistance was propagated through contact transmission but not by air. These data imply that transmission events with a looser bottleneck can propagate minority variants and may be an important route for influenza evolution. PMID:27430528

  15. Quantitative detection of Staphylococcus aureus, Streptococcus pneumoniae and Haemophilus influenzae in patients with new influenza A (H1N1/2009 and influenza A/2010 virus infection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Safaeyan, Firouzeh

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Viral influenza is a seasonal infection associated with significant morbidity and mortality. In the United States more than 35,000 deaths and 200,000 hospitalizations are recorded annually due to influenza. Secondary bacterial infections or co-infections associated with cases of influenza are a leading cause of severe morbidity and mortality, especially among high-risk groups such as the elderly and young children. Aim: The aim of the present study was the quantitative detection of and in a group of patients with seasonal influenza A, influenza A ( pandemic 2009, and patients with symptoms of respiratory infection, but the negative for serving as control group.Method: In total, 625 patients suspected respiratory infection from April 2009 to April 2010 were studied. There were 58 patients with influenza A and 567 patients negative for influenza A . From November 2010 to February 2011, 158 patients with respiratory symptoms were analyzed for seasonal influenza A. There were 25 patients with seasonal influenza A. To check the colonization status among the healthy individuals 62 healthy persons were further investigated. Individual were screened in parallel. The choices of special genes were amplified from clinical specimens using real-time PCR with a cutoff of 10 CFU/mL to differentiate colonization from infection in respiratory tract.Results: and were detected in 12%, 26% and 33% of patients with , while the corresponding figures were 9%, 19%, and 31% for negative patients. Among patients with seasonal influenza A 12% 24% , and 32% co-infections were detected, while influenza negative control group yielded 5% , 11% , and 10% , respectively. Conclusion: The results of this study indicated that the serotype of pandemic 2009 did not increase incidence of secondary infection with and . Quantitative detection of secondary bacterial infection by QR-PCR can help us for distinguishing colonization from infection and controlling misuse of

  16. Age distribution of influenza like illness cases during post-pandemic A(H3N2: comparison with the twelve previous seasons, in France.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Clément Turbelin

    Full Text Available In France, the 2011-2012 influenza epidemic was characterized by the circulation of antigenically drifted influenza A(H3N2 viruses and by an increased disease severity and mortality among the elderly, with respect to the A(H1N1pdm09 pandemic and post-pandemic outbreaks. Whether the epidemiology of influenza in France differed between the 2011-2012 epidemic and the previous outbreaks is unclear. Here, we analyse the age distribution of influenza like illness (ILI cases attended in general practice during the 2011-2012 epidemic, and compare it with that of the twelve previous epidemic seasons. Influenza like illness data were obtained through a nationwide surveillance system based on sentinel general practitioners. Vaccine effectiveness was also estimated. The estimated number of ILI cases attended in general practice during the 2011-2012 was lower than that of the past twelve epidemics. The age distribution was characteristic of previous A(H3N2-dominated outbreaks: school-age children were relatively spared compared to epidemics (co-dominated by A(H1N1 and/or B viruses (including the 2009 pandemic and post-pandemic outbreaks, while the proportion of adults over 30 year-old was higher. The estimated vaccine effectiveness (54%, 95% CI (48, 60 was in the lower range for A(H3N2 epidemics. In conclusion, the age distribution of ILI cases attended in general practice seems to be not different between the A(H3N2 pre-pandemic and post-pandemic epidemics. Future researches including a more important number of ILI epidemics and confirmed virological data of influenza and other respiratory pathogens are necessary to confirm these results.

  17. Psychogenic epidemics and work.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olkinuora, M

    1984-12-01

    Psychogenic epidemics cover various forms of collective behavior and include mass hysteria, mass psychogenic illness, and hysterical contagion for which no physical explanation can be found. The typical course of a psychogenic epidemic at a workplace progresses from sudden onset, often with dramatic symptoms, to a rapidly attained peak that draws much publicity and is followed by quick disappearance of the symptoms. Over 90% of the affected persons are women, and the symptoms range from dizziness, vomiting, nausea, and fainting to epileptic-type seizures, hyperventilation, and skin disorders. The background mechanisms are thought to be generalized beliefs and triggering events which create a sense of threat that leads to a physiological state of arousal. This state, in turn, creates new beliefs which give meaning to the sense of arousal. The new belief spreads through sociometric channels. Predisposing factors include boredom, pressure to produce, physical stressors, poor labor-management relations, and impaired interpersonal communications, and lack of social support. It is important that a thorough investigation be carried out in all instances. Investigation is not only necessary for diagnosis, but it also reassures the management, the employees, and the press that physical factors are unlikely to be responsible for the disease. PMID:6535252

  18. Treating Influenza (Flu)

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... can be used to treat influenza illness. Antiviral drugs fight influenza viruses in your body. They are different from ... chills and fatigue. Your doctor may prescribe antiviral drugs to treat your flu illness. Should Istill get aflu vaccine? Yes. Antiviral ...

  19. FastStats: Influenza

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... this? Submit What's this? Submit Button NCHS Home Influenza Recommend on Facebook Tweet Share Compartir Data are ... 6 months to 17 years who received an influenza vaccination during the past 12 months: 49.9% ...

  20. Avian Influenza in Birds

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Research Making a Candidate Vaccine Virus Related Links Influenza Types Seasonal Avian Swine Variant Pandemic Other Get ... Submit What's this? Submit Button Past Newsletters Avian Influenza in Birds Language: English Español Recommend on ...

  1. Avian Influenza (Bird Flu)

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Research Making a Candidate Vaccine Virus Related Links Influenza Types Seasonal Avian Swine Variant Pandemic Other Get ... this? Submit Button Past Newsletters Information on Avian Influenza Language: English Español Recommend on Facebook Tweet ...

  2. Seasonal Influenza Questions & Answers

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Medscape Podcasts Public Service Announcements (PSAs) Virus Images Influenza Types Seasonal Avian Swine Variant Pandemic Other Get ... Submit What's this? Submit Button Past Newsletters Seasonal Influenza, More Information Questions & Answers Language: English Español ...

  3. Surveillance of influenza in Iceland during the 2009 pandemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sigmundsdottir, G; Gudnason, T; Ólafsson, Ö; Baldvinsdottir, G E; Atladottir, A; Löve, A; Danon, L; Briem, H

    2010-12-09

    In a pandemic setting, surveillance is essential to monitor the spread of the disease and assess its impact. Appropriate mitigation and healthcare preparedness strategies depend on fast and accurate epidemic surveillance data. During the 2009 influenza A(H1N1) pandemic, rapid improvements in influenza surveillance were made in Iceland. Here, we describe the improvements made in influenza surveillance during the pandemic , which could also be of great value in outbreaks caused by other pathogens. Following the raised level of pandemic influenza alert in April 2009, influenza surveillance was intensified. A comprehensive automatic surveillance system for influenza-like illness was developed, surveillance of influenza-related deaths was established and laboratory surveillance for influenza was strengthened. School absenteeism reports were also collected and compared with results from the automatic surveillance system. The first case of 2009 pandemic influenza A(H1N1) was diagnosed in Iceland in May 2009, but sustained community transmission was not confirmed until mid-August. The pandemic virus circulated during the summer and early autumn before an abrupt increase in the number of cases was observed in October. There were large outbreaks in elementary schools for children aged 6–15 years throughout the country that peaked in late October. School absenteeism reports from all elementary schools in Iceland gave a similar epidemiological curve as that from data from the healthcare system. Estimates of the proportion of the population infected with the pandemic virus ranged from 10% to 22%. This study shows how the sudden need for improved surveillance in the pandemic led to rapid improvements in data collection in Iceland. This reporting system will be improved upon and expanded to include other notifiable diseases, to ensure accurate and timely collection of epidemiological data.

  4. The fast diagnosis by different methodologies of the influenza virus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iris Hatibi

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the causative agent of the epidemic of the influenza in our country during the season 2009-2010. It also shows the effectiveness of the molecular diagnosis for Influenza virus by the means of the real-time PCR method in comparative of classical virological ones. Also in this paper we have presented the antigenic characterization of this virus which caused the pandemic during 2009-2010 years. We have collected and processed with several diagnostic methods like imunoflorescent assay, rapid tests, isolation and molecular method 409 samples. These were collected by the means of a Sentinel Surveillance throughout Albania, (tampon nasal- pharyngeal from people suspected of influenza in different ages. To isolate the virus of influenza we have used two methods: the method of isolation of influenza in the cell line of MDCK and also the isolation of the viral RNA by the means of the molecular method. The identifications of the isolates were carried out through the reactions of the hem agglutination inhibition and we have used also the method of Immunofluorescence and rapid test for the antigen detection of influenza virus. The results of the virus analyses are given in the relevant figures. The positive isolates were sent to the International Center of Influenza in London to be confirmed and also to have a further genetic analysis through molecular methods. From these tests performed during the season 2009-2010, it came out that our country was affected by one strain of influenza type A, AH1N1 variant A/California/2009/11. This strain circulated in the whole world causing the pandemic of 2009 and was a new variant deriving from the fusion of 4 strains of Influenza a process which occurred in pigs. These variants have affected the majority of the countries in Europe and in the world.

  5. Surveillance of influenza in Iceland during the 2009 pandemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sigmundsdottir, G; Gudnason, T; Ólafsson, Ö; Baldvinsdottir, G E; Atladottir, A; Löve, A; Danon, L; Briem, H

    2010-12-01

    In a pandemic setting, surveillance is essential to monitor the spread of the disease and assess its impact. Appropriate mitigation and healthcare preparedness strategies depend on fast and accurate epidemic surveillance data. During the 2009 influenza A(H1N1) pandemic, rapid improvements in influenza surveillance were made in Iceland. Here, we describe the improvements made in influenza surveillance during the pandemic , which could also be of great value in outbreaks caused by other pathogens. Following the raised level of pandemic influenza alert in April 2009, influenza surveillance was intensified. A comprehensive automatic surveillance system for influenza-like illness was developed, surveillance of influenza-related deaths was established and laboratory surveillance for influenza was strengthened. School absenteeism reports were also collected and compared with results from the automatic surveillance system. The first case of 2009 pandemic influenza A(H1N1) was diagnosed in Iceland in May 2009, but sustained community transmission was not confirmed until mid-August. The pandemic virus circulated during the summer and early autumn before an abrupt increase in the number of cases was observed in October. There were large outbreaks in elementary schools for children aged 6–15 years throughout the country that peaked in late October. School absenteeism reports from all elementary schools in Iceland gave a similar epidemiological curve as that from data from the healthcare system. Estimates of the proportion of the population infected with the pandemic virus ranged from 10% to 22%. This study shows how the sudden need for improved surveillance in the pandemic led to rapid improvements in data collection in Iceland. This reporting system will be improved upon and expanded to include other notifiable diseases, to ensure accurate and timely collection of epidemiological data. PMID:21163181

  6. Role for proteases and HLA-G in the pathogenicity of influenza A viruses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foucault, Marie-Laure; Moules, Vincent; Rosa-Calatrava, Manuel; Riteau, Béatrice

    2011-07-01

    Influenza is one of the most common infectious diseases in humans occurring as seasonal epidemic and sporadic pandemic outbreaks. The ongoing infections of humans with avian H5N1 influenza A viruses (IAV) and the past 2009 pandemic caused by the quadruple human/avian/swine reassortant (H1N1) virus highlights the permanent threat caused by these viruses. This review aims to describe the interaction between the virus and the host, with a particular focus on the role of proteases and HLA-G in the pathogenicity of influenza viruses.

  7. Forecasting fluctuating outbreaks in seasonally driven epidemics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stone, Lewi

    2009-03-01

    Seasonality is a driving force that has major impact on the spatio-temporal dynamics of natural systems and their populations. This is especially true for the transmission of common infectious diseases such as influenza, measles, chickenpox, and pertussis. Here we gain new insights into the nonlinear dynamics of recurrent diseases through the analysis of the classical seasonally forced SIR epidemic model. Despite many efforts over the last decades, it has been difficult to gain general analytical insights because of the complex synchronization effects that can evolve between the external forcing and the model's natural oscillations. The analysis advanced here attempts to make progress in this direction by focusing on the dynamics of ``skips'' where we identify and predict years in which the epidemic is absent rather than outbreak years. Skipping events are intrinsic to the forced SIR model when parameterised in the chaotic regime. In fact, it is difficult if not impossible to locate realistic chaotic parameter regimes in which outbreaks occur regularly each year. This contrasts with the well known Rossler oscillator whose outbreaks recur regularly but whose amplitude vary chaotically in time (Uniform Phase Chaotic Amplitude oscillations). The goal of the present study is to develop a ``language of skips'' that makes it possible to predict under what conditions the next outbreak is likely to occur, and how many ``skips'' might be expected after any given outbreak. We identify a new threshold effect and give clear analytical conditions that allow accurate predictions. Moreover, the time of occurrence (i.e., phase) of an outbreak proves to be a useful new parameter that carries important epidemiological information. In forced systems, seasonal changes can prevent late-initiating outbreaks (i.e., having high phase) from running to completion. These principles yield forecasting tools that should have relevance for the study of newly emerging and reemerging diseases.

  8. Engineering influenza viral vectors

    OpenAIRE

    Li, Junwei; Arévalo, Maria T; Zeng, Mingtao

    2013-01-01

    The influenza virus is a respiratory pathogen with a negative-sense, segmented RNA genome. Construction of recombinant influenza viruses in the laboratory was reported starting in the 1980s. Within a short period of time, pioneer researchers had devised methods that made it possible to construct influenza viral vectors from cDNA plasmid systems. Herein, we discuss the evolution of influenza virus reverse genetics, from helper virus-dependent systems, to helper virus-independent 17-plasmid sys...

  9. Antiviral resistance: influenza B

    OpenAIRE

    Conde, Patrícia; Guiomar, Raquel; Cristóvão, Paula; Pechirra, Pedro

    2013-01-01

    Currently circulating influenza viruses are resistant to adamantanes and except for a low number of sporadic cases most are sensitive to neuraminidase inhibitors (NI). Adamantanes are ineffective against influenza B viruses and although NI-resistant influenza B viruses have been rarely reported, recently in the United States was identified one cluster of influenza B viruses with reduced susceptibility to NI and with the I221V substitution in the active site of the neuraminidase. Despite the l...

  10. Influenza diagnosis and control

    OpenAIRE

    Mak, Wai-yin; 麥慧妍

    2012-01-01

    The evolution and spread of influenza virus impose great impact on the society in the past century. Humans are still facing the zoonotic threat arising from animal influenza viruses; however, the existing knowledge is not sufficient to provide an accurate prediction of the next pandemic strain. My objective is to put forward the preparedness for influenza pandemics in two ways: molecular diagnosis and cross-protective vaccine. Influenza gene reassortment can take place during co-infection...

  11. Influenza: an emerging disease.

    OpenAIRE

    Webster, R. G.

    1998-01-01

    Because all known influenza A subtypes exist in the aquatic bird reservoir, influenza is not an eradicable disease; prevention and control are the only realistic goals. If people, pigs, and aquatic birds are the principal variables associated with interspecies transfer of influenza virus and the emergence of new human pandemic strains, influenza surveillance in these species is indicated. Live-bird markets housing a wide variety of avian species together (chickens, ducks, geese, pigeon, turke...

  12. Control of Influenza

    OpenAIRE

    2004-01-01

    Influenza is the classic emerging infection. Despite the availability of relatively inexpensive vaccines and specific treatments, influenza is the least controlled vaccine-preventable disease. Vaccination coverage of high-risk patients has improved, but all-cause mortality attributable to influenza continues to increase. A supplemental strategy is to vaccinate the principal disseminators of influenza in the community: school children and working adults. The availability of the live, attenuate...

  13. Combination Chemotherapy for Influenza

    OpenAIRE

    Robert G. Webster; Govorkova, Elena A.

    2010-01-01

    The emergence of pandemic H1N1 influenza viruses in April 2009 and the continuous evolution of highly pathogenic H5N1 influenza viruses underscore the urgency of novel approaches to chemotherapy for human influenza infection. Anti-influenza drugs are currently limited to the neuraminidase inhibitors (oseltamivir and zanamivir) and to M2 ion channel blockers (amantadine and rimantadine), although resistance to the latter class develops rapidly. Potential targets for the development of new anti...

  14. Continuing challenges in influenza

    OpenAIRE

    Robert G. Webster; Govorkova, Elena A.

    2014-01-01

    Influenza is an acute respiratory disease in mammals and domestic poultry that emerges from zoonotic reservoirs in aquatic birds and bats. Although influenza viruses are among the most intensively studied pathogens, existing control options require further improvement. Influenza vaccines must be regularly updated because of continuous antigenic drift and sporadic antigenic shifts in the viral surface glycoproteins. Currently, influenza therapeutics are limited to neuraminidase inhibitors; nov...

  15. Influenza and other respiratory viruses detected by influenza-like illness surveillance in Leyte Island, the Philippines, 2010-2013.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hirono Otomaru

    Full Text Available This study aimed to determine the role of influenza-like illness (ILI surveillance conducted on Leyte Island, the Philippines, including involvement of other respiratory viruses, from 2010 to 2013. ILI surveillance was conducted from January 2010 to March 2013 with 3 sentinel sites located in Tacloban city, Palo and Tanauan of Leyte Island. ILI was defined as fever ≥38°C or feverish feeling and either cough or running nose in a patient of any age. Influenza virus and other 5 respiratory viruses were searched. A total of 5,550 ILI cases visited the 3 sites and specimens were collected from 2,031 (36.6% cases. Among the cases sampled, 1,637 (75.6% were children aged <5 years. 874 (43.0% cases were positive for at least one of the respiratory viruses tested. Influenza virus and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV were predominantly detected (both were 25.7% followed by human rhinovirus (HRV (17.5%. The age distributions were significantly different between those who were positive for influenza, HRV, and RSV. ILI cases were reported throughout the year and influenza virus was co-detected with those viruses on approximately half of the weeks of study period (RSV in 60.5% and HRV 47.4%. In terms of clinical manifestations, only the rates of headache and sore throat were significantly higher in influenza positive cases than cases positive to other viruses. In conclusion, syndromic ILI surveillance in this area is difficult to detect the start of influenza epidemic without laboratory confirmation which requires huge resources. Age was an important factor that affected positive rates of influenza and other respiratory viruses. Involvement of older age children may be useful to detect influenza more effectively.

  16. Influenza and other respiratory viruses detected by influenza-like illness surveillance in Leyte Island, the Philippines, 2010-2013.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Otomaru, Hirono; Kamigaki, Taro; Tamaki, Raita; Opinion, Jamie; Santo, Arlene; Daya, Edgard; Okamoto, Michiko; Saito, Mariko; Tallo, Veronica; Lupisan, Soccoro; Suzuki, Akira; Oshitani, Hitoshi

    2015-01-01

    This study aimed to determine the role of influenza-like illness (ILI) surveillance conducted on Leyte Island, the Philippines, including involvement of other respiratory viruses, from 2010 to 2013. ILI surveillance was conducted from January 2010 to March 2013 with 3 sentinel sites located in Tacloban city, Palo and Tanauan of Leyte Island. ILI was defined as fever ≥38°C or feverish feeling and either cough or running nose in a patient of any age. Influenza virus and other 5 respiratory viruses were searched. A total of 5,550 ILI cases visited the 3 sites and specimens were collected from 2,031 (36.6%) cases. Among the cases sampled, 1,637 (75.6%) were children aged <5 years. 874 (43.0%) cases were positive for at least one of the respiratory viruses tested. Influenza virus and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) were predominantly detected (both were 25.7%) followed by human rhinovirus (HRV) (17.5%). The age distributions were significantly different between those who were positive for influenza, HRV, and RSV. ILI cases were reported throughout the year and influenza virus was co-detected with those viruses on approximately half of the weeks of study period (RSV in 60.5% and HRV 47.4%). In terms of clinical manifestations, only the rates of headache and sore throat were significantly higher in influenza positive cases than cases positive to other viruses. In conclusion, syndromic ILI surveillance in this area is difficult to detect the start of influenza epidemic without laboratory confirmation which requires huge resources. Age was an important factor that affected positive rates of influenza and other respiratory viruses. Involvement of older age children may be useful to detect influenza more effectively. PMID:25893441

  17. Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses Detected by Influenza-Like Illness Surveillance in Leyte Island, the Philippines, 2010–2013

    Science.gov (United States)

    Otomaru, Hirono; Kamigaki, Taro; Tamaki, Raita; Opinion, Jamie; Santo, Arlene; Daya, Edgard; Okamoto, Michiko; Saito, Mariko; Tallo, Veronica; Lupisan, Soccoro; Suzuki, Akira; Oshitani, Hitoshi

    2015-01-01

    This study aimed to determine the role of influenza-like illness (ILI) surveillance conducted on Leyte Island, the Philippines, including involvement of other respiratory viruses, from 2010 to 2013. ILI surveillance was conducted from January 2010 to March 2013 with 3 sentinel sites located in Tacloban city, Palo and Tanauan of Leyte Island. ILI was defined as fever ≥38°C or feverish feeling and either cough or running nose in a patient of any age. Influenza virus and other 5 respiratory viruses were searched. A total of 5,550 ILI cases visited the 3 sites and specimens were collected from 2,031 (36.6%) cases. Among the cases sampled, 1,637 (75.6%) were children aged <5 years. 874 (43.0%) cases were positive for at least one of the respiratory viruses tested. Influenza virus and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) were predominantly detected (both were 25.7%) followed by human rhinovirus (HRV) (17.5%). The age distributions were significantly different between those who were positive for influenza, HRV, and RSV. ILI cases were reported throughout the year and influenza virus was co-detected with those viruses on approximately half of the weeks of study period (RSV in 60.5% and HRV 47.4%). In terms of clinical manifestations, only the rates of headache and sore throat were significantly higher in influenza positive cases than cases positive to other viruses. In conclusion, syndromic ILI surveillance in this area is difficult to detect the start of influenza epidemic without laboratory confirmation which requires huge resources. Age was an important factor that affected positive rates of influenza and other respiratory viruses. Involvement of older age children may be useful to detect influenza more effectively. PMID:25893441

  18. About Haemophilus influenzae Disease

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... one that most people are familiar with is Haemophilus influenzae type b, or Hib. There’s a vaccine that can prevent disease caused by Hib, but not the other types of Haemophilus influenzae . Types of Infection Haemophilus influenzae Can Cause Infections ...

  19. Influenza, Winter Olympiad, 2002

    OpenAIRE

    Gundlapalli, Adi V.; Rubin, Michael A.; Samore, Matthew H; Lopansri, Bert; Lahey, Timothy; McGuire, Heather L.; Winthrop, Kevin L; Dunn, James J.; Willick, Stuart E.; Vosters, Randal L.; Waeckerle, Joseph F.; Carroll, Karen C.; Gwaltney, Jack M.; Hayden, Frederick G.; Elstad, Mark R.

    2006-01-01

    Prospective surveillance for influenza was performed during the 2002 Salt Lake City Winter Olympics. Oseltamivir was administered to patients with influenzalike illness and confirmed influenza, while their close contacts were given oseltamivir prophylactically. Influenza A/B was diagnosed in 36 of 188 patients, including 13 athletes. Prompt management limited the spread of this outbreak.

  20. Prediction of Peaks of Seasonal Influenza in Military Health-Care Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buczak, Anna L; Baugher, Benjamin; Guven, Erhan; Moniz, Linda; Babin, Steven M; Chretien, Jean-Paul

    2016-01-01

    Influenza is a highly contagious disease that causes seasonal epidemics with significant morbidity and mortality. The ability to predict influenza peak several weeks in advance would allow for timely preventive public health planning and interventions to be used to mitigate these outbreaks. Because influenza may also impact the operational readiness of active duty personnel, the US military places a high priority on surveillance and preparedness for seasonal outbreaks. A method for creating models for predicting peak influenza visits per total health-care visits (ie, activity) weeks in advance has been developed using advanced data mining techniques on disparate epidemiological and environmental data. The model results are presented and compared with those of other popular data mining classifiers. By rigorously testing the model on data not used in its development, it is shown that this technique can predict the week of highest influenza activity for a specific region with overall better accuracy than other methods examined in this article. PMID:27127415

  1. Seasonal influenza vaccination for children in Thailand: a cost-effectiveness analysis.

    OpenAIRE

    Aronrag Meeyai; Naiyana Praditsitthikorn; Surachai Kotirum; Wantanee Kulpeng; Weerasak Putthasri; Cooper, Ben S.; Yot Teerawattananon

    2015-01-01

    Editors' Summary Background Every year, millions of people catch influenza, a viral disease of the airways. Most infected individuals recover quickly, but elderly people, the very young, and chronically ill individuals are at high risk of developing serious complications such as pneumonia; seasonal influenza kills about half a million people annually. Small but frequent changes in the influenza virus mean that an immune response produced one year by exposure to the virus provides only partial...

  2. A review of the indirect protection of younger children and the elderly through a mass influenza vaccination program in Japan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sugaya, Norio

    2014-12-01

    In the past, Japan's strategy for controlling influenza was to vaccinate schoolchildren based on the theory that this could reduce influenza epidemics in the community, and a special program to vaccinate schoolchildren against influenza was begun in 1962. However, the program was discontinued in 1994 because of lack of evidence that it had limited the spread of influenza in the community. In 2001, it was reported that a clear decrease in excess mortality had coincided with the timing of the schoolchild vaccination program. This decrease could have potentially occurred because elderly people were protected by herd immunity generated by the program. Moreover, the program protected the younger siblings of schoolchildren against influenza-associated encephalopathy. Finally, the program was effective in reducing the number of class cancellations and absenteeism from school. During the period when the program was in effect, Japanese schoolchildren served as a barrier against influenza in the community.

  3. FLU, an amino acid substitution model for influenza proteins

    OpenAIRE

    Gascuel Olivier; Le Quang; Dang Cuong; Le Vinh

    2010-01-01

    Abstract Background The amino acid substitution model is the core component of many protein analysis systems such as sequence similarity search, sequence alignment, and phylogenetic inference. Although several general amino acid substitution models have been estimated from large and diverse protein databases, they remain inappropriate for analyzing specific species, e.g., viruses. Emerging epidemics of influenza viruses raise the need for comprehensive studies of these dangerous viruses. We p...

  4. FLU, an amino acid substitution model for influenza proteins

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gascuel Olivier

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The amino acid substitution model is the core component of many protein analysis systems such as sequence similarity search, sequence alignment, and phylogenetic inference. Although several general amino acid substitution models have been estimated from large and diverse protein databases, they remain inappropriate for analyzing specific species, e.g., viruses. Emerging epidemics of influenza viruses raise the need for comprehensive studies of these dangerous viruses. We propose an influenza-specific amino acid substitution model to enhance the understanding of the evolution of influenza viruses. Results A maximum likelihood approach was applied to estimate an amino acid substitution model (FLU from ~113, 000 influenza protein sequences, consisting of ~20 million residues. FLU outperforms 14 widely used models in constructing maximum likelihood phylogenetic trees for the majority of influenza protein alignments. On average, FLU gains ~42 log likelihood points with an alignment of 300 sites. Moreover, topologies of trees constructed using FLU and other models are frequently different. FLU does indeed have an impact on likelihood improvement as well as tree topologies. It was implemented in PhyML and can be downloaded from ftp://ftp.sanger.ac.uk/pub/1000genomes/lsq/FLU or included in PhyML 3.0 server at http://www.atgc-montpellier.fr/phyml/. Conclusions FLU should be useful for any influenza protein analysis system which requires an accurate description of amino acid substitutions.

  5. Early detection of influenza like illness through medication sales.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Socan, Maja; Erculj, Vanja; Lajovic, Jaro

    2012-06-01

    Monitoring sales of medications is a potential candidate for an early signal of a seasonal influenza epidemic. To test this theory, the data from a traditional, consultation-oriented influenza surveillance system were compared to medication sales and a predictive model was developed. Weekly influenza-like incidence rates from the National Influenza Sentinel Surveillance System were compared to sales of seven groups of medications (nasal decongestants, medicines for sore throat (MST), antitussives, mucolytics, analgo-antipyretics, non-steroidal anti-inflamatory drugs (NSAIDs), betalactam antibiotics, and macrolide antibiotics) to determine the correlation of medication sales with the sentinel surveillance system - and therefore their predictive power. Poisson regression and regression tree approaches were used in the statistical analyses. The fact that NSAIDs do not exhibit any seasonality and that prescription of antibiotics requires a visit to the doctor's office makes the two medication groups inappropriate for predictive purposes. The influenza-like illness (ILI) curve is the best matched by the mucolytics and antitussives sales curves. Distinct seasonality is also observed with MST and decongestants. The model including these four medication groups performed best in prediction of ILI incidence rate using the Poisson regression model. Sales of antitussives proved to be the best single predictive variable for regression tree model. Sales of medication groups included in the model were demonstrated to have a predictive potential for early detection of influenza season. The quantitative information on medication sales proves to be a useful supplementary system, complementing the traditional consultation-oriented surveillance system.

  6. Influenza virus neuraminidase (NA): a target for antivirals and vaccines.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jagadesh, Anitha; Salam, Abdul Ajees Abdul; Mudgal, Piya Paul; Arunkumar, Govindakarnavar

    2016-08-01

    Influenza, the most common infectious disease, poses a great threat to human health because of its highly contagious nature and fast transmissibility, often leading to high morbidity and mortality. Effective vaccination strategies may aid in the prevention and control of recurring epidemics and pandemics associated with this infectious disease. However, antigenic shifts and drifts are major concerns with influenza virus, requiring effective global monitoring and updating of vaccines. Current vaccines are standardized primarily based on the amount of hemagglutinin, a major surface antigen, which chiefly constitutes these preparations along with the varying amounts of neuraminidase (NA). Anti-influenza drugs targeting the active site of NA have been in use for more than a decade now. However, NA has not been approved as an effective antigenic component of the influenza vaccine because of standardization issues. Although some studies have suggested that NA antibodies are able to reduce the severity of the disease and induce a long-term and cross-protective immunity, a few major scientific issues need to be addressed prior to launching NA-based vaccines. Interestingly, an increasing number of studies have shown NA to be a promising target for future influenza vaccines. This review is an attempt to consolidate studies that reflect the strength of NA as a suitable vaccine target. The studies discussed in this article highlight NA as a potential influenza vaccine candidate and support taking the process of developing NA vaccines to the next stage. PMID:27255748

  7. Swine-origin influenza-virus-induced acute lung injury:Novel or classical pathogenesis?

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Naoyoshi; Maeda; Toshimitsu; Uede

    2010-01-01

    Influenza viruses are common respiratory pathogens in humans and can cause serious infection that leads to the development of pneumonia.Due to their hostrange diversity,genetic and antigenic diversity,and potential to reassort genetically in vivo,influenza A viruses are continual sources of novel influenza strains that lead to the emergence of periodic epidemics and outbreaks in humans.Thus,newly emerging viral diseases are always major threats to public health.In March 2009,a novel influenza virus suddenly emerged and caused a worldwide pandemic.The novel pandemic influenza virus was genetically and antigenically distinct from previous seasonal human influenza A/H1N1 viruses;it was identified to have originated from pigs,and further genetic analysis revealed it as a subtype of A/H1N1,thus later called a swine-origin influenza virus A/H1N1.Since the novel virus emerged,epidemiological surveys and research on experimental animal models have been conducted,and characteristics of the novel influenza virus have been determined but the exact mechanisms of pulmonary pathogenesis remain to be elucidated.In this editorial,we summa-rize and discuss the recent pandemic caused by the novel swine-origin influenza virus A/H1N1 with a focus on the mechanism of pathogenesis to obtain an insight into potential therapeutic strategies.

  8. Lactogenic immunity and vaccines for porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDV): historical and current concepts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morbidity, mortality, and loss of productivity from enteric diseases in neonatal piglets cost swine producers millions of dollars annually. In 2013-2014, the porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDV) outbreak led to $900 million to $1.8 billion in annual losses to US swine producers. Passive lactogeni...

  9. Social contact patterns and control strategies for influenza in the elderly.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Towers, S; Feng, Z

    2012-12-01

    Despite dramatic increases in influenza vaccination coverage in the elderly population over the past 30 years, influenza mortality rates have remained static in this age group. Children are believed to be the primary spreaders of diseases such as influenza due to their high degree of inter-contact in school settings, and several studies have examined control of influenza in the entire population, including the elderly, via targeted vaccination of school children. However, such vaccination programs are expensive, and fraught with difficulties of public perception of what may be seen as an unnecessary vaccination against a disease that is normally mild in the children themselves. In the study presented here, we examine the control of influenza in the elderly using simple social distancing measures during an influenza epidemic. The recent work of Glasser et al. characterizes daily contact interactions within the population in terms of preferential mixing between age group peers, co-workers, and parents and children. We expand upon this to include interactions between grandparents and grandchildren, and fit the parameters of this formulation to the recently published social contact survey data of Mossong et al. Using this formulation, we then model an influenza epidemic with an age-structured deterministic disease model and examine how reduction in contacts between grandchildren and grandparents affects the spread of influenza to the elderly. We find that over 50% of all influenza infections in the elderly are caused by direct contact with an infected child, and we determine that social distancing between grandparents and grandchildren is remarkably effective, and is capable of reducing influenza attack rates in the elderly by up to 60%. PMID:22877728

  10. Serological evidence of H3N8 canine influenza-like virus circulation in USA dogs prior to 2004.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, T C; Bromfield, C R; Crawford, P C; Dodds, W J; Gibbs, E P J; Hernandez, J A

    2012-03-01

    H3N8 canine influenza virus (H3N8 CIV) was first reported as a novel canine respiratory pathogen in racing greyhounds and shelter dogs in the U.S.A. in 2004. Phylogenetic analyses determined that this host-adapted pathogen originated from interspecies transmission of an equine influenza virus (EIV), but it is unknown when the transmission occurred prior to discovery in 2004. The objective of this study was to determine if racing greyhound and shelter dog sera collected from 1984 to 2004 had serological evidence of exposure to H3N8 CIV or EIV. Archived sera from 702 racing greyhounds and 1568 shelter dogs were tested for H3 antibodies to the original 2004 CIV isolate, as well as EIV isolates from 1991 to 1999. None of the racing greyhounds from 1984 and 1985 had detectable H3 antibodies. One of the shelter dogs, which entered a north Florida shelter in 2004, was seropositive. For racing greyhounds sampled from 1999 to 2004, 133/520 (26%) dogs had antibodies to both CIV and EIV H3 proteins. The annual seroprevalence was 27% in 1999, 28% in 2000, 10% in 2001, 1% in 2002, 41% in 2003, and 28% in 2004. The odds of H3 seropositivity were greater among dogs that raced > or =6 months, raced on > or =2 tracks, and raced in 1998, 2002, and 2003. Many of the seropositive dogs raced at tracks that were involved in 'kennel cough' epidemics in 1998-1999 and 2002-2003. Based on serological evidence, a H3N8 canine influenza-like virus was circulating in racing greyhounds in the U.S.A. as early as 1999. PMID:22178358

  11. Development of a stable liquid formulation of live attenuated influenza vaccine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, Jessica A; Estrada, Marcus; Flood, E Alexander; Mahmood, Kutub; Dhere, Rajeev; Chen, Dexiang

    2016-07-12

    Vaccination is the most effective means of preventing influenza. However, the cost of producing annual seasonal influenza vaccines puts them out of reach for most developing countries. While live attenuated influenza vaccines are among the most efficacious and can be manufactured at low cost, they may require lyophilization to be stable enough for developing-country use, which adds a significant cost burden. The development of a liquid live attenuated seasonal influenza vaccine that is stable for around a year-the duration of an annual influenza season-would significantly improve not only the production output but also the use and accessibility of influenza vaccines in low-resource settings. In this study, potential stabilizing excipients were screened and optimized using the least stable influenza vaccine strain presently known, H1N1 (A/California/07/2009), as a model. The stability-conferring properties of the lead formulations were also tested with a Type B strain of influenza virus (B/Brisbane/60/2008). Stability was also evaluated with higher titers of influenza virus and exposure to agitation and freeze-thaw stresses to further confirm the stability of the lead formulations. Through this process, we identified a liquid formulation consisting of sucrose phosphate glutamate buffer with 1% arginine and 0.5% recombinant human serum albumin that provided storage stability of one year at 2-8°C for the influenza A and B strains tested. PMID:27155495

  12. Regional Level Influenza Study with Geo-Tagged Twitter Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Feng; Wang, Haiyan; Xu, Kuai; Raymond, Ross; Chon, Jaime; Fuller, Shaun; Debruyn, Anton

    2016-08-01

    The rich data generated and read by millions of users on social media tells what is happening in the real world in a rapid and accurate fashion. In recent years many researchers have explored real-time streaming data from Twitter for a broad range of applications, including predicting stock markets and public health trend. In this paper we design, implement, and evaluate a prototype system to collect and analyze influenza statuses over different geographical locations with real-time tweet streams. We investigate the correlation between the Twitter flu counts and the official statistics from the Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and discover that real-time tweet streams capture the dynamics of influenza cases at both national and regional level and could potentially serve as an early warning system of influenza epidemics. Furthermore, we propose a dynamic mathematical model which can forecast Twitter flu counts with high accuracy. PMID:27372953

  13. Detecting signals of seasonal influenza severity through age dynamics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lee, Elizabeth C; Viboud, Cécile; Simonsen, Lone;

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Measures of population-level influenza severity are important for public health planning, but estimates are often based on case-fatality and case-hospitalization risks, which require multiple data sources, are prone to surveillance biases, and are typically unavailable in the early...... stages of an outbreak. To address the limitations of traditional indicators, we propose a novel severity index based on influenza age dynamics estimated from routine physician diagnosis data that can be used retrospectively and for early warning. METHODS: We developed a quantitative 'ground truth......' severity benchmark that synthesizes multiple traditional severity indicators from publicly available influenza surveillance data in the United States. Observing that the age distribution of cases may signal severity early in an epidemic, we constructed novel retrospective and early warning severity indexes...

  14. Leveraging social networks for understanding the evolution of epidemics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martín Gonzalo

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background To understand how infectious agents disseminate throughout a population it is essential to capture the social model in a realistic manner. This paper presents a novel approach to modeling the propagation of the influenza virus throughout a realistic interconnection network based on actual individual interactions which we extract from online social networks. The advantage is that these networks can be extracted from existing sources which faithfully record interactions between people in their natural environment. We additionally allow modeling the characteristics of each individual as well as customizing his daily interaction patterns by making them time-dependent. Our purpose is to understand how the infection spreads depending on the structure of the contact network and the individuals who introduce the infection in the population. This would help public health authorities to respond more efficiently to epidemics. Results We implement a scalable, fully distributed simulator and validate the epidemic model by comparing the simulation results against the data in the 2004-2005 New York State Department of Health Report (NYSDOH, with similar temporal distribution results for the number of infected individuals. We analyze the impact of different types of connection models on the virus propagation. Lastly, we analyze and compare the effects of adopting several different vaccination policies, some of them based on individual characteristics -such as age- while others targeting the super-connectors in the social model. Conclusions This paper presents an approach to modeling the propagation of the influenza virus via a realistic social model based on actual individual interactions extracted from online social networks. We implemented a scalable, fully distributed simulator and we analyzed both the dissemination of the infection and the effect of different vaccination policies on the progress of the epidemics. The epidemic values

  15. Live attenuated influenza vaccine--a review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gasparini, R; Amicizia, D; Lai, P L; Panatto, D

    2011-09-01

    Owing to the variability of influenza viruses, vaccine composition needs to be up-dated annually. As many variables can influence their efficacy, vaccines are still considered "sub-optimal". Many studies have been carried out in recent years to improve vaccines. In particular, researchers and vaccine-producing corporations have focused on developing a live vaccine. Among the candidate vaccines, the strain developed by Maassab has recently been licensed in the USA and Europe, after extensive investigation. This vaccine is safe and well tolerated, and has shown very good genetic stability. Although vaccine recipients are able to spread the virus, transmission to close contacts is practically non-existent. Studies on cold-adapted attenuated influenza vaccines have demonstrated that such vaccines are effective, and sometimes more effective than inactivated influenza vaccines. Cold-adapted attenuated influenza vaccines therefore appear to be an important weapon against influenza. However, a more widespread use of these vaccines is to be recommended, especially in children, as the more acceptable way of administration can favour parental compliance.

  16. Stochastic epidemic models: a survey

    CERN Document Server

    Britton, Tom

    2009-01-01

    This paper is a survey paper on stochastic epidemic models. A simple stochastic epidemic model is defined and exact and asymptotic model properties (relying on a large community) are presented. The purpose of modelling is illustrated by studying effects of vaccination and also in terms of inference procedures for important parameters, such as the basic reproduction number and the critical vaccination coverage. Several generalizations towards realism, e.g. multitype and household epidemic models, are also presented, as is a model for endemic diseases.

  17. Epidemic dynamics on complex networks

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHOU Tao; FU Zhongqian; WANG Binghong

    2006-01-01

    Recently, motivated by the pioneer work in revealing the small-world effect and scale-free property of various real-life networks, many scientists devote themselves to studying complex networks. One of the ultimate goals is to understand how the topological structures affect the dynamics upon networks. In this paper, we give a brief review on the studies of epidemic dynamics on complex networks, including the description of classical epidemic models, the epidemic spread on small-world and scale-free networks, and network immunization. Finally, perspectives and some interesting problems are proposed.

  18. Epidemic Diffusion on Complex Networks

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WU Xiao-Yan; LIU Zong-Hua

    2007-01-01

    Boyh diffusion and epidemic are well studied in the stochastic systems and complex networks,respetively.Here we combine these two fields and study epidemic diffusion in complex networks.Instead of studying the threshold of infection,which was focused on in previous works,we focus on the diffusion.behaviour.We find that the epidemic diffusion in a complex network is an anomalous superdiffusion with varyingg diffusion exponext γand that γ is influenced seriously by the network structure,such as the clustering coefficient and the degree distribution.Numerical simulations have confirmed the theoretical predictions.

  19. Prevalence of influenza vaccination and its association with health conditions and risk factors among Kansas adults in 2013: a cross-sectional study

    OpenAIRE

    Santaularia, Jeanie; Hou, Wei; Perveen, Ghazala; Welsh, Ericka; Faseru, Babalola

    2016-01-01

    Background According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, approximately 5-20 % of people are affected by influenza annually, and influenza causes more than 200,000 hospitalizations each year. The purpose of this study is to estimate the prevalence of influenza vaccination among high risk adults in Kansas. Methods The 2013 Kansas BRFSS data (n = 20,712) were analyzed to assess the prevalence of receiving influenza vaccination among Kansas adults, overall and for selected demograp...

  20. Cost effectiveness of vaccination against pandemic influenza in European countries : mathematical modelling analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lugner, A.K.; van Boven, Michiel; de Vries, Robin; Postma, M.J.; Wallinga, J.

    2012-01-01

    Objective To investigate whether a single optimal vaccination strategy exists across countries to deal with a future influenza pandemic by comparing the cost effectiveness of different strategies in various pandemic scenarios for three European countries. Design Economic and epidemic modelling study

  1. How to develop a program to increase influenza vaccine uptake among workers in health care settings?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Looijmans-van den Akker, I.; Hulscher, M.E.; Verheij, T.J.M.; Riphagen-Dalhuisen, J.; van Delden, J.J.M.; Hak, E.

    2011-01-01

    Background: Apart from direct protection and reduced productivity loss during epidemics, the main reason to immunize healthcare workers (HCWs) against influenza is to provide indirect protection of frail patients through reduced transmission in healthcare settings. Because the vaccine uptake among H

  2. How to develop a program to increase influenza vaccine uptake among workers in health care settings?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Looijmans-van den Akker, I.; Hulscher, M.E.J.L.; Verheij, T.J.; Riphagen-Dalhuisen, J.; Delden, J.J.M. van; Hak, E.

    2011-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Apart from direct protection and reduced productivity loss during epidemics, the main reason to immunize healthcare workers (HCWs) against influenza is to provide indirect protection of frail patients through reduced transmission in healthcare settings. Because the vaccine uptake among H

  3. Matrix protein 2 of influenza A virus blocks autophagosome fusion with lysosomes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gannagé, Monique; Dormann, Dorothee; Albrecht, Randy;

    2009-01-01

    Influenza A virus is an important human pathogen causing significant morbidity and mortality every year and threatening the human population with epidemics and pandemics. Therefore, it is important to understand the biology of this virus to develop strategies to control its pathogenicity. Here, we...

  4. Prevention and Control of Seasonal Influenza with Vaccines.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grohskopf, Lisa A; Sokolow, Leslie Z; Broder, Karen R; Olsen, Sonja J; Karron, Ruth A; Jernigan, Daniel B; Bresee, Joseph S

    2016-01-01

    This report updates the 2015-16 recommendations of the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) regarding the use of seasonal influenza vaccines (Grohskopf LA, Sokolow LZ, Olsen SJ, Bresee JS, Broder KR, Karron RA. Prevention and control of influenza with vaccines: recommendations of the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices, United States, 2015-16 influenza season. MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep 2015;64:818-25). Routine annual influenza vaccination is recommended for all persons aged ≥6 months who do not have contraindications. For the 2016-17 influenza season, inactivated influenza vaccines (IIVs) will be available in both trivalent (IIV3) and quadrivalent (IIV4) formulations. Recombinant influenza vaccine (RIV) will be available in a trivalent formulation (RIV3). In light of concerns regarding low effectiveness against influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 in the United States during the 2013-14 and 2015-16 seasons, for the 2016-17 season, ACIP makes the interim recommendation that live attenuated influenza vaccine (LAIV4) should not be used. Vaccine virus strains included in the 2016-17 U.S. trivalent influenza vaccines will be an A/California/7/2009 (H1N1)-like virus, an A/Hong Kong/4801/2014 (H3N2)-like virus, and a B/Brisbane/60/2008-like virus (Victoria lineage). Quadrivalent vaccines will include an additional influenza B virus strain, a B/Phuket/3073/2013-like virus (Yamagata lineage).Recommendations for use of different vaccine types and specific populations are discussed. A licensed, age-appropriate vaccine should be used. No preferential recommendation is made for one influenza vaccine product over another for persons for whom more than one licensed, recommended product is otherwise appropriate. This information is intended for vaccination providers, immunization program personnel, and public health personnel. Information in this report reflects discussions during public meetings of ACIP held on October 21, 2015; February 24, 2016; and June 22, 2016

  5. Analysis on Influenza Surveillance in Futian District of Shenzhen City during 2007-2009%深圳市福田区2007-2009年流行性感冒监测分析

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    范苏云; 黄慈林; 石向辉; 李丽廉; 刘莹

    2011-01-01

    目的 了解福田区流行性感冒(简称流感)流行动态及流感病毒毒株的变异情况,为流感的防治提供科学依据.方法 每周统计监测点流感样病例(ILI)数据,采集流感样病例鼻咽拭子标本,采用MDCK细胞进行流感病毒分离,采用血凝抑制试验进行流感病毒犁别的鉴定.结果 2007-2009年共监测到流感样病例32 961例,占监测门诊总数的5.61%;分离阳性毒株363份,分离率34.41%.各年度ILI%趋势与病毒分离率一致.发生暴发疫情97宗,主要发牛在中小学和托幼机构.结论 福田区流感流行高峰在6-8月,各亚型交替出现,一般在6月前后出现毒株型别改变.2009年ILI%、分离率及暴发疫情的升高主要是由于甲型H1N1流感大流行引起的.%[ Objective ] To understand the dynamic epidemiologic characteristics of influenza and variation of influenza virus strains in Futian District, and provide scientific basis for the prevention and treatment of influenza. [ Methods] Influenza-like illness ( ILI) data of monitoring hospitals were weekly analyzed and the nasopharyngeal swab samples of ILI were collected. MDCK cells were used for influenza virus isolation. Hemagglutination inhibition experiments were applied to identify influenza virus type. [ Results ] From 2007 to 2009, a total of 32 961 cases of ILI were monitored, accounting for 5.61% of total monitoring out-patients; 363 influenza strains were isolated, the virus isolation rate was 34.41%. The annual trend of ILI% was consistent with the trend of virus isolation rate; 97 epidemic outbreaks occurred mainly in schools and nurseries. [ Conclusion ] The epidemiologic peak of influenza is from June to August in Futian District, the influenza virus subtypes alternate, the virus strain type usually changed in June. The ILI% and the isolation rate and the epidemic outbreaks increasing is mainly due to influenza pandemic of H1N1 in 2009.

  6. A onipresença do medo na influenza de 1918 Omnipotent fear along 1918 influenza

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liane Maria Bertucci

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available O medo é um sentimento de diversas faces que durante a vigência de uma grave epidemia torna-se onipresente, podendo motivar tanto a discriminação e a exclusão, quanto a procura desesperada, e muitas vezes solidária, pela cura da doençaMoléstia que desafiou o saber médico-científico, a epidemia de influenza espanhola fez aflorar entre os brasileiros o medo do contato com o outro, a indiferença das pessoas e o temor ancestral dos hospitaisMas, o medo da gripe de 1918 motivou também a solidariedade, expressa de maneira singular na divulgação de práticas caseiras de cura que, combinadas com esparsas informações médicas e com a fé, traduziram a generosidade de indivíduos que difundiam gratuitamente aquilo que, acreditavam, poderia acabar com a epidemia.Fear is a multiple faces feeling that along a hard epidemic becomes omnipresent, as well as it can motivate discrimination and exclusion together to desperate, and many times solidary, search for disease cureA disease that challenged medical-scientific knowledge, influenza epidemic brought up among Brazilians fear of personal contact, as well as people unconcerning and ancestral terror of hospitalsOn the other hand, 1918 influenza fear motivated solidarity, which had been expressed in a singular manner on domestic healing practices that, joint together few medical information and faith, revealed generosity of individuals who broadcast for free those information that, they believed, could put an end to the epidemic.

  7. Earthquakes, influenza and cycles of Indian kala-azar.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dye, C; Wolpert, D M

    1988-01-01

    It is suggested that previous data indicate 3 major epidemics of kala-azar in Assam between 1875 and 1950, with inter-epidemic periods of 30-45 and 20 years. This deviates from the popular view of regular cycles with a 10-20 year period. A deterministic mathematical model of kala-azar is used to find the simplest explanation for the timing of the 3 epidemics, paying particular attention to the role of extrinsic (drugs, natural disasters, other infectious diseases) versus intrinsic (host and vector dynamics, birth and death rates, immunity) processes in provoking the second. We conclude that, whilst widespread influenza in 1918-1919 may have magnified the second epidemic, intrinsic population processes provide the simplest explanation for its timing and synchrony throughout Assam. The model also shows that the second inter-epidemic period is expected to be shorter than the first, even in the absence of extrinsic agents, and highlights the importance of a small fraction of patients becoming chronically infectious (with post kala-azar dermal leishmaniasis) after treatment during an epidemic.

  8. Skip the trip: air travelers' behavioral responses to pandemic influenza.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eli P Fenichel

    Full Text Available Theory suggests that human behavior has implications for disease spread. We examine the hypothesis that individuals engage in voluntary defensive behavior during an epidemic. We estimate the number of passengers missing previously purchased flights as a function of concern for swine flu or A/H1N1 influenza using 1.7 million detailed flight records, Google Trends, and the World Health Organization's FluNet data. We estimate that concern over "swine flu," as measured by Google Trends, accounted for 0.34% of missed flights during the epidemic. The Google Trends data correlates strongly with media attention, but poorly (at times negatively with reported cases in FluNet. Passengers show no response to reported cases. Passengers skipping their purchased trips forwent at least $50 M in travel related benefits. Responding to actual cases would have cut this estimate in half. Thus, people appear to respond to an epidemic by voluntarily engaging in self-protection behavior, but this behavior may not be responsive to objective measures of risk. Clearer risk communication could substantially reduce epidemic costs. People undertaking costly risk reduction behavior, for example, forgoing nonrefundable flights, suggests they may also make less costly behavior adjustments to avoid infection. Accounting for defensive behaviors may be important for forecasting epidemics, but linking behavior with epidemics likely requires consideration of risk communication.

  9. An effective immunization strategy for airborne epidemics in modular and hierarchical social contact network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Zhichao; Ge, Yuanzheng; Luo, Lei; Duan, Hong; Qiu, Xiaogang

    2015-12-01

    Social contact between individuals is the chief factor for airborne epidemic transmission among the crowd. Social contact networks, which describe the contact relationships among individuals, always exhibit overlapping qualities of communities, hierarchical structure and spatial-correlated. We find that traditional global targeted immunization strategy would lose its superiority in controlling the epidemic propagation in the social contact networks with modular and hierarchical structure. Therefore, we propose a hierarchical targeted immunization strategy to settle this problem. In this novel strategy, importance of the hierarchical structure is considered. Transmission control experiments of influenza H1N1 are carried out based on a modular and hierarchical network model. Results obtained indicate that hierarchical structure of the network is more critical than the degrees of the immunized targets and the modular network layer is the most important for the epidemic propagation control. Finally, the efficacy and stability of this novel immunization strategy have been validated as well.

  10. Ideas, institutions, and interests in the global governance of epidemics in Asia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoon, Sungwon

    2010-07-01

    Recent policy debates provide mounting evidence that global governance of epidemics in Asia is evolving with the rise of new actors, agendas, and programs to address the transnational nature of public health emergencies. However, there have been relatively few studies that address the question of why certain public health approaches are preferred. Drawing on the case studies of severe acute respiratory syndrome and H5N1 avian influenza, this article sets out to answer 2 questions about global governance of epidemics in Asia: What set of ideas characterizes the form of global governance of epidemics in Asia? Why does it prevail while other alternatives fall by the wayside? The central argument in this article is that the global public health agenda and action by policy communities are not only shaped by empirical realities of public health but are also the result of the contending sets of interests and concerns.

  11. The new epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allen, Jeanne V; Mellin, Grace C

    2014-03-01

    Editor's note: From its first issue in 1900 through to the present day, AJN has unparalleled archives detailing nurses' work and lives over the last century. These articles not only chronicle nursing's growth as a profession within the context of the events of the day, but they also reveal prevailing societal attitudes about women, health care, and human rights. Today's nursing school curricula rarely include nursing's history, but it's a history worth knowing. To this end, From the AJN Archives will be a frequent column, containing articles selected to fit today's topics and times.This month's article, from the November 1982 issue, is the first AJN article published on AIDS. It was early in the epidemic; only 608 cases of Kaposi's sarcoma and opportunistic infections had been reported to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention-a mere trickle in the flood that was to come. Reading it now, aware of all we've learned since, we have a sense of how much we were fumbling around in the dark in those early days, searching for a cause and a cure, often going in wrong directions. The closest we had come to the true nature of the syndrome was an understanding that "life-style factors seem to be involved and the agent appears to be infectious." To read the complete article from our archives, go to http://bit.ly/1iswhZe. PMID:24572536

  12. Epidemic processes in complex networks

    CERN Document Server

    Pastor-Satorras, Romualdo; Van Mieghem, Piet; Vespignani, Alessandro

    2014-01-01

    In recent years the research community has accumulated overwhelming evidence for the emergence of complex and heterogeneous connectivity patterns in a wide range of biological and socio-technical systems. The complex properties of real world networks have a profound impact on the behavior of equilibrium and non-equilibrium phenomena occurring in various systems, and the study of epidemic spreading is central to our understanding of the unfolding of dynamical processes in complex networks. The theoretical analysis of epidemic spreading in heterogeneous networks requires the development of novel analytical frameworks, and it has produced results of conceptual and practical relevance. Here we present a coherent and comprehensive review of the vast research activity concerning epidemic processes, detailing the successful theoretical approaches as well as making their limits and assumptions clear. Physicists, epidemiologists, computer and social scientists share a common interest in studying epidemic spreading and...

  13. Epidemic cholera spreads like wildfire

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roy, Manojit; Zinck, Richard D.; Bouma, Menno J.; Pascual, Mercedes

    2014-01-01

    Cholera is on the rise globally, especially epidemic cholera which is characterized by intermittent and unpredictable outbreaks that punctuate periods of regional disease fade-out. These epidemic dynamics remain however poorly understood. Here we examine records for epidemic cholera over both contemporary and historical timelines, from Africa (1990-2006) and former British India (1882-1939). We find that the frequency distribution of outbreak size is fat-tailed, scaling approximately as a power-law. This pattern which shows strong parallels with wildfires is incompatible with existing cholera models developed for endemic regions, as it implies a fundamental role for stochastic transmission and local depletion of susceptible hosts. Application of a recently developed forest-fire model indicates that epidemic cholera dynamics are located above a critical phase transition and propagate in similar ways to aggressive wildfires. These findings have implications for the effectiveness of control measures and the mechanisms that ultimately limit the size of outbreaks.

  14. Epidemic Synchronization in Robotic Swarms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schiøler, Henrik; Nielsen, Jens Frederik Dalsgaard; Ngo, Trung Dung

    2009-01-01

    Clock synchronization in swarms of networked mobile robots is studied in a probabilistic, epidemic framework. In this setting communication and synchonization is considered to be a randomized process, taking place at unplanned instants of geographical rendezvous between robots. In combination...

  15. Epidemic Network Failures in Optical Transport Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ruepp, Sarah Renée; Katsikas, Dimitrios; Fagertun, Anna Manolova

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a failure propagation model for transport networks which are affected by epidemic failures. The network is controlled using the GMPLS protocol suite. The Susceptible Infected Disabled (SID) epidemic model is investigated and new signaling functionality of GMPLS to support...... epidemic failure resolution is proposed. The results provide important input to service recovery mechanisms under epidemic failures....

  16. Evolutionary Dynamics of Local Pandemic H1N1/2009 Influenza Virus Lineages Revealed by Whole-Genome Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Baillie, Gregory J.; Galiano, Monica; Agapow, Paul-Michael; Myers, Richard; Chiam, Rachael; Gall, Astrid; Palser, Anne L.; Watson, Simon J.; Hedge, Jessica; Underwood, Anthony; Platt, Steven; McLean, Estelle; Pebody, Richard G.; Rambaut, Andrew; Green, Jonathan

    2012-01-01

    Virus gene sequencing and phylogenetics can be used to study the epidemiological dynamics of rapidly evolving viruses. With complete genome data, it becomes possible to identify and trace individual transmission chains of viruses such as influenza virus during the course of an epidemic. Here we sequenced 153 pandemic influenza H1N1/09 virus genomes from United Kingdom isolates from the first (127 isolates) and second (26 isolates) waves of the 2009 pandemic and used their sequences, dates of ...

  17. EPIDEMIOLOGI TERPADU AVIAN INFLUENZA (FLU BURUNG) BERBASIS TINDAKAN KESEHATAN MASYARAKAT DALAM RESPON PANDEMI INFLUENZA

    OpenAIRE

    Denas Symond

    2009-01-01

    The term surveillance is used in two rather different ways. First, surveillance can mean the continuous security of the factors that determine the occurrence and distribution of disease and other conditions of ill health The second use of the term refers to a special reporting system which is set u for a particularly important health problem or disease, for example the spread of communicable diseases in an epidemic like Avian Influenza (AI) or ( H5N1 ). Such a surveillance system like AI aim ...

  18. Demographic Variability, Vaccination, and the Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Rotavirus Epidemics

    OpenAIRE

    Pitzer, Virginia E.; Viboud, Cécile; Simonsen, Lone; Steiner, Claudia; Panozzo, Catherine A.; Alonso, Wladimir J.; Miller, Mark A.; Glass, Roger I.; Glasser, John W.; Parashar, Umesh D.; Grenfell, Bryan T.

    2009-01-01

    Historically, annual rotavirus activity in the United States has started in the southwest in late fall and ended in the northeast 3 months later; this trend has diminished in recent years. Traveling waves of infection or local environmental drivers cannot account for these patterns. A transmission model calibrated against epidemiological data shows that spatiotemporal variation in birth rate can explain the timing of rotavirus epidemics. The recent large-scale introduction of rotavirus vaccin...

  19. Epidemic spreading in complex networks

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Jie ZHOU; Zong-hua LIU

    2008-01-01

    The study of epidemic spreading in complex networks is currently a hot topic and a large body of results have been achieved.In this paper,we briefly review our contributions to this field,which includes the underlying mechanism of rumor propagation,the epidemic spreading in community networks,the influence of varying topology,and the influence of mobility of agents.Also,some future directions are pointed out.

  20. The problem of the periodicity of the epidemic process. [solar activity effects on diphtheria outbreak

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yagodinskiy, V. N.; Konovalenko, Z. P.; Druzhinin, I. P.

    1974-01-01

    An analysis of data from epidemics makes it possible to determine their principal causes, governed by environmental factors (solar activity, etc.) The results of an analysis of the periodicity of the epidemic process in the case of diphtheria are presented which was conducted with the aid of autocorrelation and spectral methods of analysis. Numerical data (annual figures) are used on the dynamics of diphtheria in 50 regions (points) with a total duration of 2,777 years.

  1. Spatiotemporal distribution of malaria and the association between its epidemic and climate factors in Hainan, China

    OpenAIRE

    Li Lang; Wang Guangze; Xu Dezhong; Fang Liqun; Wang Shanqing; Long Yong; Xiao Dan; Cao Wuchun; Yan Yongping

    2010-01-01

    Abstract Background Hainan is one of the provinces most severely affected by malaria epidemics in China. The distribution pattern and major determinant climate factors of malaria in this region have remained obscure, making it difficult to target countermeasures for malaria surveillance and control. This study detected the spatiotemporal distribution of malaria and explored the association between malaria epidemics and climate factors in Hainan. Methods The cumulative and annual malaria incid...

  2. Real-time forecasts of dengue epidemics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamana, T. K.; Shaman, J. L.

    2015-12-01

    Dengue is a mosquito-borne viral disease prevalent in the tropics and subtropics, with an estimated 2.5 billion people at risk of transmission. In many areas with endemic dengue, disease transmission is seasonal but prone to high inter-annual variability with occasional severe epidemics. Predicting and preparing for periods of higher than average transmission is a significant public health challenge. Here we present a model of dengue transmission and a framework for optimizing model simulations with real-time observational data of dengue cases and environmental variables in order to generate ensemble-based forecasts of the timing and severity of disease outbreaks. The model-inference system is validated using synthetic data and dengue outbreak records. Retrospective forecasts are generated for a number of locations and the accuracy of these forecasts is quantified.

  3. An innovative influenza vaccination policy: targeting last season's patients.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dan Yamin

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Influenza vaccination is the primary approach to prevent influenza annually. WHO/CDC recommendations prioritize vaccinations mainly on the basis of age and co-morbidities, but have never considered influenza infection history of individuals for vaccination targeting. We evaluated such influenza vaccination policies through small-world contact networks simulations. Further, to verify our findings we analyzed, independently, large-scale empirical data of influenza diagnosis from the two largest Health Maintenance Organizations in Israel, together covering more than 74% of the Israeli population. These longitudinal individual-level data include about nine million cases of influenza diagnosed over a decade. Through contact network epidemiology simulations, we found that individuals previously infected with influenza have a disproportionate probability of being highly connected within networks and transmitting to others. Therefore, we showed that prioritizing those previously infected for vaccination would be more effective than a random vaccination policy in reducing infection. The effectiveness of such a policy is robust over a range of epidemiological assumptions, including cross-reactivity between influenza strains conferring partial protection as high as 55%. Empirically, our analysis of the medical records confirms that in every age group, case definition for influenza, clinical diagnosis, and year tested, patients infected in the year prior had a substantially higher risk of becoming infected in the subsequent year. Accordingly, considering individual infection history in targeting and promoting influenza vaccination is predicted to be a highly effective supplement to the current policy. Our approach can also be generalized for other infectious disease, computer viruses, or ecological networks.

  4. Monitoring the impact of influenza by age: emergency department fever and respiratory complaint surveillance in New York City.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Donald R Olson

    2007-08-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The importance of understanding age when estimating the impact of influenza on hospitalizations and deaths has been well described, yet existing surveillance systems have not made adequate use of age-specific data. Monitoring influenza-related morbidity using electronic health data may provide timely and detailed insight into the age-specific course, impact and epidemiology of seasonal drift and reassortment epidemic viruses. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the use of emergency department (ED chief complaint data for measuring influenza-attributable morbidity by age and by predominant circulating virus. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We analyzed electronically reported ED fever and respiratory chief complaint and viral surveillance data in New York City (NYC during the 2001-2002 through 2005-2006 influenza seasons, and inferred dominant circulating viruses from national surveillance reports. We estimated influenza-attributable impact as observed visits in excess of a model-predicted baseline during influenza periods, and epidemic timing by threshold and cross correlation. We found excess fever and respiratory ED visits occurred predominantly among school-aged children (8.5 excess ED visits per 1,000 children aged 5-17 y with little or no impact on adults during the early-2002 B/Victoria-lineage epidemic; increased fever and respiratory ED visits among children younger than 5 y during respiratory syncytial virus-predominant periods preceding epidemic influenza; and excess ED visits across all ages during the 2003-2004 (9.2 excess visits per 1,000 population and 2004-2005 (5.2 excess visits per 1,000 population A/H3N2 Fujian-lineage epidemics, with the relative impact shifted within and between seasons from younger to older ages. During each influenza epidemic period in the study, ED visits were increased among school-aged children, and each epidemic peaked among school-aged children before other impacted age groups. CONCLUSIONS

  5. 流感分子病毒学研究进展%The Progress of Molecular Virology of Influenza

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    邵惠训

    2011-01-01

    The genome of influenza virus is composed of 8 RNA segments , and consists of eight fr8gments of RNA encoding 10 proteins ,including HA , NA, NP , PA , PB1 , PB2 , M1 , M2 , NS1 and NS2 . HA and NA are the Burface proteins . These protein spikes allow influenza to infect and demage cells and are what the immune system recognizes. HA spike allows the virus to bind to and enter cells. NA spike is used to escape the cell, destroying it in the procesa. There are 16 different HA subtypes ( H1-H16) . There are also 9 different NA aubtypea ( N1-N9) .The major reservoirs of influenza A in nature are wild ducks and other waterfowl. All of these HA and NA subtypes have been detected in waterfowl. Influenza replicates in the lung and in the gut of birda and the infection is normally asymptomatic,but epidemics of fatal influenza have occurred in turkeys and chickena, and H5NI vinis has caused fatal infection in a number of different bird species. Duck can excrete virus in fecea,infecting other ducks via contaminated water. Migratory ducks then spread the virus around the world. The viruses in birds are in stasis.Almost no difference in amino acid sequences of the various proteins are present in viruses separated by many decades,although the nucleic acid sequences encoding;these proteins do drift. This together with the fact that the viruse8 seldom cause disease in their avian reservoirs show that influenza in birds is ancient and the virus has adapted to its primary host. The gene segments of influenza A virus reassort readily during; mixed infection, and viruses with new combinations of genes arise frequendy. Newly arising reassortants can cause major epidemics of influenza when introduced binauons of genes give rise to viruses that are capable of epidemic apread in humans.Only three 8ubtype of HA ( H1,H2 , and H3) and two subtype of NA (N1 and N2) have been bound to date in epidemic strains of human influenza virus. Three influenza pandemics occurred during the last century

  6. Why are oseltamivir and zanamivir effective against the newly emerged influenza A virus (A/HIN1)?

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Kunqian Yu; Cheng Luo; Guangrong Qin; Zhijian Xu; Ning Li; Hong Liu; Xu Shen; Jianpeng Ma; Qinghua Wang; Caiguang Yang; Weiliang Zhu; Hualiang Jiang

    2009-01-01

    @@ Dear Editor, The current flu epidemic caused by influenza A H1N1 (A/H1N1) virus, which first appeared in Mexico emerged as a communicable human disease in late March and rapidly spread throughout the world in April 2009. Due to the rapid transport systems in modern times, the epi-demic affected about 121 countries in less than 4 months (http://www.who.int/csr/don/2009_07_16/en/).

  7. Balancing immune protection and immune pathology by CD8+ T cell responses to influenza infection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Susu eDuan

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Influenza A virus (IAV is a significant human pathogen causing annual epidemics and periodic pandemics. CD8+ cytotoxic T lymphocyte (CTL-mediated immunity contributes to clearance of virus-infected cells; CTL immunity targeting the conserved internal proteins of IAVs is a key protection mechanism when neutralizing antibodies are absent during heterosubtypic IAV infection. However, CTL infiltration into the airways, their cytotoxicity, and the effects of produced pro-inflammatory cytokines can cause severe lung tissue injury, thereby contributing to immunopathology. Studies have discovered complicated and exquisite stimulatory and inhibitory mechanisms that regulate CTL magnitude and effector activities during IAV infection. Here, we review the state of knowledge on the roles of IAV-specific CTLs in immune protection and immunopathology during IAV infection in animal models, highlighting the key findings of various requirements and constraints regulating the balance of immune protection and pathology involved in CTL immunity. We also discuss the evidence of cross-reactive CTL immunity as a positive correlate of cross-subtype protection during secondary IAV infection in both animal and human studies. We argue that the effects of CTL immunity on protection and immunopathology depend on multiple layers of host and viral factors, including complex host mechanisms to regulate CTL magnitude and effector activity, the pathogenic nature of the IAV, the innate response milieu, and the host historical immune context of influenza infection. Future efforts are needed to further understand these key host and viral factors, especially to differentiate those that constrain optimally effective CTL anti-viral immunity from those necessary to restrain CTL-mediated nonspecific immunopathology in the various contexts of IAV infection, in order to develop better vaccination and therapeutic strategies for modifying protective CTL immunity.

  8. Carrying rate and the epidemic characteristics of haemophilus influenzae isolated from healthy children in Zhangjiakou%张家口地区健康儿童呼吸道流感嗜血杆菌带菌现状及DNA多态性分析

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    乔海霞; 张彦霞; 常月立; 张玉妥

    2013-01-01

    OBJECTIVE To investigate the infection status,epidemic characteristics and resistance to common antibiotics of haemophilus influenzae (HI) among children subjected to respiratory tract infection of Zhangjiakou city.To provide scientific evidences for preventing,alleviating and controlling HI infection in this region.METHODS HI strains were isolated from throat swabs from healthy children.The antibiotics susceptibility was identified by K-B method,and β-lactamase was ceilnase paper method; isolates were conducted on biological typing,random amplified polymorph DNA (RAPD) was used to identify the genotype and homology of these strains.RESULTS 31 HI strains were isolated from 100 samples of healthy children,positive rate was 31%.All of the 31 HI strains were sensitive to imipenem,chloromycetin,cefaclor,etc.The resistant rate to trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazol and ampicillin were 38.7% and 16.1%,5 strains were β-1actamase positive,accounting for 16.1%.Biotypes Ⅵ and Ⅷ were the prevalent biotypes accounting for 32.4% and 22.6%,respectively.The cluster analysis using RAPD indicated that HI colonizing on healthy children in this city had few cross-infection and there was no obvious central distribution trend.CONCLUSION Compared with the results of ten years ago,it has changed in HI separation rate,biotype and antibiotics resistance.RAPD cluster analysis shows that HI colonizing on healthy children in this city has few cross-infection and there is no obvious central distribution trends.%目的 了解张家口地区健康儿童呼吸道流感嗜血杆菌(Haemophilus infiuenzae,HI)带菌现状、对常用抗生素的耐药情况及流行特征,为预防、控制流感嗜血杆菌感染提供科学依据.方法 从健康儿童咽拭子标本中分离鉴定流感嗜血杆菌,采用K-B法测定其对抗生素的敏感性,用cefinase纸片检测菌株的β-内酰胺酶;对分离菌株进行生物分型,同时用随机扩增多态性DNA (RAPD)技

  9. Modeling and predicting seasonal influenza transmission in warm regions using climatological parameters.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Radina P Soebiyanto

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Influenza transmission is often associated with climatic factors. As the epidemic pattern varies geographically, the roles of climatic factors may not be unique. Previous in vivo studies revealed the direct effect of winter-like humidity on air-borne influenza transmission that dominates in regions with temperate climate, while influenza in the tropics is more effectively transmitted through direct contact. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Using time series model, we analyzed the role of climatic factors on the epidemiology of influenza transmission in two regions characterized by warm climate: Hong Kong (China and Maricopa County (Arizona, USA. These two regions have comparable temperature but distinctly different rainfall. Specifically we employed Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA model along with climatic parameters as measured from ground stations and NASA satellites. Our studies showed that including the climatic variables as input series result in models with better performance than the univariate model where the influenza cases depend only on its past values and error signal. The best model for Hong Kong influenza was obtained when Land Surface Temperature (LST, rainfall and relative humidity were included as input series. Meanwhile for Maricopa County we found that including either maximum atmospheric pressure or mean air temperature gave the most improvement in the model performances. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our results showed that including the environmental variables generally increases the prediction capability. Therefore, for countries without advanced influenza surveillance systems, environmental variables can be used for estimating influenza transmission at present and in the near future.

  10. Influenza A and B viruses in the population of Vojvodina, Serbia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Radovanov J.

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available At present, two influenza A viruses, H1N1pdm09 and H3N2, along with influenza B virus co-circulate in the human population, causing endemic and seasonal epidemic acute febrile respiratory infections, sometimes with life-threatening complications. Detection of influenza viruses in nasopharyngeal swab samples was done by real-time RT-PCR. There were 60.2% (53/88 positive samples in 2010/11, 63.4% (52/82 in 2011/12, and 49.9% (184/369 in 2012/13. Among the positive patients, influenza A viruses were predominant during the first two seasons, while influenza B type was more active during 2012/13. Subtyping of influenza A positive samples revealed the presence of A (H1N1pdm09 in 2010/11, A (H3N2 in 2011/12, while in 2012/13, both subtypes were detected. The highest seroprevalence against influenza A was in the age-group 30-64, and against influenza B in adults aged 30-64 and >65. [Projekat Ministarstva nauke Republike Srbije, br. TR31084

  11. The Analysis of B-Cell Epitopes of Influenza Virus Hemagglutinin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shcherbinin, D N; Alekseeva, S V; Shmarov, M M; Smirnov, Yu A; Naroditskiy, B S; Gintsburg, A L

    2016-01-01

    Vaccination has been successfully used to prevent influenza for a long time. Influenza virus hemagglutinin (HA), which induces a humoral immune response in humans and protection against the flu, is the main antigenic component of modern influenza vaccines. However, new seasonal and pandemic influenza virus variants with altered structures of HA occasionally occur. This allows the pathogen to avoid neutralization with antibodies produced in response to previous vaccination. Development of a vaccine with the new variants of HA acting as antigens takes a long time. Therefore, during an epidemic, it is important to have passive immunization agents to prevent and treat influenza, which can be monoclonal or single-domain antibodies with universal specificity (broad-spectrum agents). We considered antibodies to conserved epitopes of influenza virus antigens as universal ones. In this paper, we tried to characterize the main B-cell epitopes of hemagglutinin and analyze our own and literature data on broadly neutralizing antibodies. We conducted a computer analysis of the best known conformational epitopes of influenza virus HAs using materials of different databases. The analysis showed that the core of the HA molecule, whose antibodies demonstrate pronounced heterosubtypic activity, can be used as a target for the search for and development of broad-spectrum antibodies to the influenza virus. PMID:27099781

  12. Taming influenza viruses

    OpenAIRE

    Ozawa, Makoto; Kawaoka, Yoshihiro

    2011-01-01

    Plasmid-based reverse genetics systems allow the artificial generation of viruses with cloned cDNA-derived genomes. Since the establishment of such systems for influenza virus, numerous attempts have been made to tame this pathogenic agent. In particular, several types of viruses expressing foreign genes have been generated and used to further our knowledge of influenza virus replication and pathogenicity and to develop novel influenza vaccines. Here, we review these achievements and discuss ...

  13. Immunobiology of Influenza Vaccines

    OpenAIRE

    Gomez Lorenzo, Margarita M.; Fenton, Matthew J.

    2013-01-01

    Vaccination is the primary strategy for prevention and control of influenza. The surface hemagglutinin (HA) protein of the influenza virus contains two structural elements (head and stalk) that differ in their potential utility as vaccine targets. The head of the HA protein is the primary target of antibodies that confer protective immunity to influenza viruses. The underlying health status, age, and gene polymorphisms of vaccine recipients and, just as importantly, the extent of the antigeni...

  14. Vaccines for Pandemic Influenza

    OpenAIRE

    Luke, Catherine J.; Subbarao, Kanta

    2006-01-01

    Recent outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza in Asia and associated human infections have led to a heightened level of awareness and preparation for a possible influenza pandemic. Vaccination is the best option by which spread of a pandemic virus could be prevented and severity of disease reduced. Production of live attenuated and inactivated vaccine seed viruses against avian influenza viruses, which have the potential to cause pandemics, and their testing in preclinical studies and...

  15. Filamentous influenza viruses

    OpenAIRE

    Dadonaite, Bernadeta; Vijyakrishnan, Swetha; Fodor, Ervin; Bhella, David; Hutchinson, Edward C.

    2016-01-01

    Clinical isolates of influenza virus produce pleomorphic virus particles, including extremely long filamentous virions. In contrast, strains of influenza that have adapted to laboratory growth typically produce only spherical virions. As a result, the filamentous phenotype has been overlooked in most influenza virus research. Recent advances in imaging and improved animal models have highlighted the distinct structure and functional relevance of filamentous virions. In this review we summaris...

  16. Towards universal influenza vaccines?

    OpenAIRE

    Osterhaus, Ab; Fouchier, Ron; Rimmelzwaan, Guus

    2011-01-01

    Vaccination is the most cost-effective way to reduce the considerable disease burden of seasonal influenza. Although seasonal influenza vaccines are effective, their performance in the elderly and immunocompromised individuals would benefit from improvement. Major problems related to the development and production of pandemic influenza vaccines are response time and production capacity as well as vaccine efficacy and safety. Several improvements can be envisaged. Vaccine production technologi...

  17. New treatments for influenza

    OpenAIRE

    Barik Sailen

    2012-01-01

    Abstract Influenza has a long history of causing morbidity and mortality in the human population through routine seasonal spread and global pandemics. The high mutation rate of the RNA genome of the influenza virus, combined with assortment of its multiple genomic segments, promote antigenic diversity and new subtypes, allowing the virus to evade vaccines and become resistant to antiviral drugs. There is thus a continuing need for new anti-influenza therapy using novel targets and creative st...

  18. The effect of age and recent influenza vaccination history on the immunogenicity and efficacy of 2009-10 seasonal trivalent inactivated influenza vaccination in children.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sophia Ng

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: There is some evidence that annual vaccination of trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine (TIV may lead to reduced vaccine immunogenicity but evidence is lacking on whether vaccine efficacy is affected by prior vaccination history. The efficacy of one dose of TIV in children 6-8 y of age against influenza B is uncertain. We examined whether immunogenicity and efficacy of influenza vaccination in school-age children varied by age and past vaccination history. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We conducted a randomized controlled trial of 2009-10 TIV. Influenza vaccination history in the two preceding years was recorded. Immunogenicity was assessed by comparison of HI titers before and one month after receipt of TIV/placebo. Subjects were followed up for 11 months with symptom diaries, and respiratory specimens were collected during acute respiratory illnesses to permit confirmation of influenza virus infections. We found that previous vaccination was associated with reduced antibody responses to TIV against seasonal A(H1N1 and A(H3N2 particularly in children 9-17 y of age, but increased antibody responses to the same lineage of influenza B virus in children 6-8 y of age. Serological responses to the influenza A vaccine viruses were high regardless of vaccination history. One dose of TIV appeared to be efficacious against confirmed influenza B in children 6-8 y of age regardless of vaccination history. CONCLUSIONS: Prior vaccination was associated with lower antibody titer rises following vaccination against seasonal influenza A vaccine viruses, but higher responses to influenza B among individuals primed with viruses from the same lineage in preceding years. In a year in which influenza B virus predominated, no impact of prior vaccination history was observed on vaccine efficacy against influenza B. The strains that circulated in the year of study did not allow us to study the effect of prior vaccination on vaccine efficacy against influenza A.

  19. An overview of the regulation of influenza vaccines in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weir, Jerry P; Gruber, Marion F

    2016-09-01

    Influenza virus vaccines are unique among currently licensed viral vaccines. The vaccines designed to protect against seasonal influenza illness must be updated periodically in an effort to match the vaccine strain with currently circulating viruses, and the vaccine manufacturing timeline includes multiple, overlapping processes with a very limited amount of flexibility. In the United States (U.S.), over 150 million doses of seasonal trivalent and quadrivalent vaccine are produced annually, a mammoth effort, particularly in the context of a vaccine with components that usually change on a yearly basis. In addition, emergence of an influenza virus containing an HA subtype that has not recently circulated in humans is an ever present possibility. Recently, pandemic influenza vaccines have been licensed, and the pathways for licensure of pandemic vaccines and subsequent strain updating have been defined. Thus, there are formidable challenges for the regulation of currently licensed influenza vaccines, as well as for the regulation of influenza vaccines under development. This review describes the process of licensing influenza vaccines in the U.S., the process and steps involved in the annual updating of seasonal influenza vaccines, and some recent experiences and regulatory challenges faced in development and evaluation of novel influenza vaccines. PMID:27426005

  20. An overview of the regulation of influenza vaccines in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weir, Jerry P; Gruber, Marion F

    2016-09-01

    Influenza virus vaccines are unique among currently licensed viral vaccines. The vaccines designed to protect against seasonal influenza illness must be updated periodically in an effort to match the vaccine strain with currently circulating viruses, and the vaccine manufacturing timeline includes multiple, overlapping processes with a very limited amount of flexibility. In the United States (U.S.), over 150 million doses of seasonal trivalent and quadrivalent vaccine are produced annually, a mammoth effort, particularly in the context of a vaccine with components that usually change on a yearly basis. In addition, emergence of an influenza virus containing an HA subtype that has not recently circulated in humans is an ever present possibility. Recently, pandemic influenza vaccines have been licensed, and the pathways for licensure of pandemic vaccines and subsequent strain updating have been defined. Thus, there are formidable challenges for the regulation of currently licensed influenza vaccines, as well as for the regulation of influenza vaccines under development. This review describes the process of licensing influenza vaccines in the U.S., the process and steps involved in the annual updating of seasonal influenza vaccines, and some recent experiences and regulatory challenges faced in development and evaluation of novel influenza vaccines.

  1. Genetic Reassortment Among the Influenza Viruses (Avian Influenza, Human Influenza and Swine Influenza) in Pigs

    OpenAIRE

    Dyah Ayu Hewajuli; Ni Luh Putu Indi Dharmiayanti

    2012-01-01

    Influenza A virus is a hazardous virus and harm to respiratory tract. The virus infect birds, pigs, horses, dogs, mammals and humans. Pigs are important hosts in ecology of the influenza virus because they have two receptors, namely NeuAc 2,3Gal and NeuAc 2,6Gal which make the pigs are sensitive to infection of influenza virus from birds and humans and genetic reassortment can be occurred. Classical swine influenza H1N1 viruses had been circulated in pigs in North America and other countries ...

  2. Influenza-Sediment Interactions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trusiak, A.; Block, K. A.; Katz, A.; Gottlieb, P.; Alimova, A.; Galarza, J.; Wei, H.; Steiner, J. C.

    2013-12-01

    A typical water fowl can secrete 1012 influenza virions per day. Therefore it is not unexpected that influenza virions interact with sediments in the water column. The influence of sediments on avian influenza virions is not known. With the threat of avian influenza emerging into the human population, it is crucial to understand virus survivability and residence time in a body of water. Influenza and clay sediments are colloidal particles and thus aggregate as explained by DLVO (Derjaguin & Landau, Verwey & Overbeek) theory. Of great importance is an understanding of the types of particulate or macromolecular components that bind the virus particles, and whether the virus remains biologically active. We present results of hetero-aggregation and transmission electron microscopy experiments performed with influenza A/PR8/38. Influenza particles are suspended with sediment and minimal nutrients for several days, after which the components are evaluated to determine influenza concentration and survivability. Transmission electron microscopy results are reported on the influenza-sediment aggregates to elucidate structure and morphology of the components.

  3. Planning and executing a vaccination campaign against avian influenza.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marangon, S; Cristalli, A; Busani, L

    2007-01-01

    Vaccination against avian influenza infection caused by H5 or H7 virus subtypes has been used on several occasions in recent years to control and in some cases eradicate the disease. In order to contain avian influenza infection effectively, immunization should be combined with a coordinated set of control and monitoring measures. The outcome of an immunization campaign depends on the territorial strategy; whereas the capacity of the veterinary services in developed countries permits enforcement of strategies aimed at eradicating avian influenza, many countries currently affected by highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 viruses have a limited veterinary infrastructure and a limited capacity to respond to such epidemics. In these countries, resources are still insufficient to conduct adequate surveillance for identification and reaction to avian influenza outbreaks when they occur. When properly applied in this scenario, immunization can reduce mortality and production losses. In the long term, immunization might also decrease the prevalence of infection to levels at which stamping-out and surveillance can be applied. Countries should adapt their immunization programmes to local conditions in order to guarantee their efficacy and sustainability. In the initial emergency phase, human resources can be mobilized, with reliance on personal responsibility and motivation, thus compensating for potential shortcomings in organization. A more appropriate allocation of resources must be pursued in the long term, remembering that biosecurity is the main component of an exit strategy and must always be improved.

  4. Animal Epidemic Information Quantity of Willingness for Farmers to Report under the Risk of Avian Influenza---A Case Study on Broiler Farmers in China%禽流感风险下农户愿意上报的疫情信息数量--以全国肉鸡养殖户为例

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    黄泽颖; 王济民; 靳淑平

    2016-01-01

    疫情发生时间、地点、采取的控制措施、疑似染疫动物的种类、数量、同群的数量、免疫情况、病亡数量、临床症状、病理变化是养殖户发现禽流感疫情时,需要依法上报的10个重要信息。疫情防控效果取决于养殖户上报信息的充分性。为规范养殖户上报疫情行为,通过收集全国331个肉鸡养殖户的调查问卷发现,平均每个养殖户上报6个疫情信息,但愿意上报全部信息的养殖户仅27.79%。通过负二项回归模型研究发现,影响养殖户愿意上报疫情信息数量的因素很多,但养殖规模、防疫信息渠道、禽流感联防联控系统参与意愿正向且显著的影响因素。与预期不同的是,北方养殖户有意向上报更多的疫情信息。最后提出相应的政策建议。%Outbreak time and site epidemic,control measures taken,variety and quantity of animals infected with epidemic diseases,numbers of the same group,immunization state,numbers of deaths,clinical symptoms, pathological changes are the ten important information that farmers need to report in accordance to law and regula-tion if they found bird flu epidemics.Effect of epidemic prevention and control depends on the adequacy of infor-mation that willingness for farmers to report.In order to regulate behavior of reporting epidemics for farmers,it is found that each farmer would like to report 6 kinds of epidemics information on average but there were only 27.79%of farmers who preferred to report all kinds of information by collecting 331 questionnaires on broiler farmers.It is also found that there are many influencing factors on numbers of epidemics information which farmers would like to report but positive and significant influencing factors are breeding scale of farmers,information channels of epidem-ic prevention,participation willingness of the joint prevention and joint control system on bird flu.As not expected, the northern farmers have

  5. Epidemiology of Haemophilus influenzae bacteremia: A multi-national population-based assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Laupland, Kevin B; Schønheyder, Henrik C; Østergaard, Christian;

    2011-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: Haemophilus influenzae is an important cause of invasive infection but contemporary data in non-selected populations is limited. METHODS: Population-based surveillance for Haemophilus influenzae bacteremia was conducted in seven regions in Australia, Canada, and Denmark during 2000...... independently associated with death at 30-days in logistic regression analysis included male gender, hospital-onset disease, older age, and lower respiratory tract, central nervous system, or unknown focus of infection. CONCLUSIONS: Haemophilus influenzae is an important cause of morbidity and mortality......-2008. RESULTS: The overall annual incidence rate was 1.31 per 100,000 population and type specific rates were 0.08 for H. influenzae serotype b (Hib), 0.22 for H. influenzae serotypes a, c-f (Hiac-f), and 0.98 per 100,000 for non-typeable H. influenzae (NTHi). Very young and old patients were at highest risk...

  6. Influenza virus vaccination and kidney graft rejection: causality or coincidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fischer, Anne Sophie Lind; Møller, Bjarne Kuno; Krag, Søren; Jespersen, Bente

    2015-06-01

    Influenza can cause significant morbidity and mortality in renal transplant recipients especially with a high rate of lower respiratory disease. Annual influenza vaccination is therefore recommended to renal transplant recipients. We report the first three cases of acute kidney injury in renal transplant recipients following influenza vaccination that all led to graft loss. They all had different native diseases and were all vaccinated in the same season of 2009-10. The time span from vaccination to decline of kidney function is shorter than the time to diagnosis since the three patients only had blood tests every 3 months or when symptoms became severe. These reports do not justify a change of current recommendations regarding influenza vaccination in renal transplant recipients, but they support the continued attention and registration of vaccinations to monitor side effects. PMID:26034595

  7. Generation of influenza virus from avian cells infected by Salmonella carrying the viral genome.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiangmin Zhang

    Full Text Available Domestic poultry serve as intermediates for transmission of influenza A virus from the wild aquatic bird reservoir to humans, resulting in influenza outbreaks in poultry and potential epidemics/pandemics among human beings. To combat emerging avian influenza virus, an inexpensive, heat-stable, and orally administered influenza vaccine would be useful to vaccinate large commercial poultry flocks and even migratory birds. Our hypothesized vaccine is a recombinant attenuated bacterial strain able to mediate production of attenuated influenza virus in vivo to induce protective immunity against influenza. Here we report the feasibility and technical limitations toward such an ideal vaccine based on our exploratory study. Five 8-unit plasmids carrying a chloramphenicol resistance gene or free of an antibiotic resistance marker were constructed. Influenza virus was successfully generated in avian cells transfected by each of the plasmids. The Salmonella carrier was engineered to allow stable maintenance and conditional release of the 8-unit plasmid into the avian cells for recovery of influenza virus. Influenza A virus up to 10⁷ 50% tissue culture infective doses (TCID50/ml were recovered from 11 out of 26 co-cultures of chicken embryonic fibroblasts (CEF and Madin-Darby canine kidney (MDCK cells upon infection by the recombinant Salmonella carrying the 8-unit plasmid. Our data prove that a bacterial carrier can mediate generation of influenza virus by delivering its DNA cargoes into permissive host cells. Although we have made progress in developing this Salmonella influenza virus vaccine delivery system, further improvements are necessary to achieve efficient virus production, especially in vivo.

  8. Seasonal influenza vaccine uptake in HSE-funded hospitals and nursing homes during the 2011/2012 influenza season.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Lorcain, P; Cotter, S; Hickey, L; O'Flanagan, D; Corcoran, B; O'Meara, M

    2014-03-01

    Annual seasonal influenza vaccine is recommended for all health care workers (HCWs) in Ireland. For the 2011/2012 influenza season, information was collected on influenza vaccination uptake among HCWs employed in Health Service Executive (HSE)-funded hospitals (primarily acute) and of nursing homes (NHs) and also among NH long-term and short-term respite care residents. Forty-five hospitals (80%) and 120 NHs (75%) provided uptake data. Nationally, influenza vaccine uptake among hospital employed HCWs was estimated to be 18% and 14% among HCWs in NHs; in NHs vaccine uptake among long-term care residents was estimated to 88%. These findings highlight the continued low uptake among HCWs of all categories and demonstrate the need for sustained measures to improve uptake rates.

  9. Growth patterns and scaling laws governing AIDS epidemic in Brazilian cities

    CERN Document Server

    Antonio, F J; Teixeira, J J V; Mendes, R S

    2014-01-01

    Brazil holds approximately 1/3 of population living infected with AIDS (acquired immunodeficiency syndrome) in Central and South Americas, and it was also the first developing country to implement a large-scale control and intervention program against AIDS epidemic. In this scenario, we investigate the temporal evolution and current status of the AIDS epidemic in Brazil. Specifically, we analyze records of annual absolute frequency of cases for more than 5000 cities for the first 33 years of the infection in Brazil. We found that (i) the annual absolute frequencies exhibit a logistic-type growth with an exponential regime in the first few years of the AIDS spreading; (ii) the actual reproduction number decaying as a power law; (iii) the distribution of the annual absolute frequencies among cities decays with a power law behavior; (iv) the annual absolute frequencies and the number of inhabitants have an allometric relationship; (v) the temporal evolution of the annual absolute frequencies have different profi...

  10. Third European Influenza Summit: organized by the European Scientific Working group on Influenza (ESWI).

    Science.gov (United States)

    McElhaney, Janet; Osterhaus, Ab

    2013-12-16

    On 2 May 2013, the European Scientific Working group on Influenza (ESWI) held its third influenza summit at the Institute of European Studies at the Free University of Brussels. ESWI brought together more than 90 representatives of organizations of healthcare providers, senior citizens, at-risk patients and public health authorities for a day of tailored lectures, Q&A sessions and networking. Since recent studies, surveys and reviews have shed new light on some of the most intriguing influenza issues, the Summit faculty translated the newest scientific data into practice. The first part of the Summit programme focused on the current flu status in Europe, paying special attention to the protection of pregnant women and the elderly as well as to the issues of vaccine safety and effectiveness. The programme continued to highlight future challenges and evolutions like novel antiviral drugs against influenza, improved flu vaccines and the prospect of a universal flu vaccine. The annual ESWI flu summits are the pinnacles of ESWI's efforts to bridge the gap between science and society. ESWI's members are convinced that the fight against influenza can only be won when all parties are well informed and ready to work together.

  11. Influenza vaccination in the Americas: Progress and challenges after the 2009 A(H1N1) influenza pandemic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ropero-Álvarez, Alba María; El Omeiri, Nathalie; Kurtis, Hannah Jane; Danovaro-Holliday, M. Carolina; Ruiz-Matus, Cuauhtémoc

    2016-01-01

    ABSTRACT Background: There has been considerable uptake of seasonal influenza vaccines in the Americas compared to other regions. We describe the current influenza vaccination target groups, recent progress in vaccine uptake and in generating evidence on influenza seasonality and vaccine effectiveness for immunization programs. We also discuss persistent challenges, 5 years after the A(H1N1) 2009 influenza pandemic. Methods: We compiled and summarized data annually reported by countries to the Pan American Health Organization/World Health Organization (PAHO/WHO) through the WHO/UNICEF joint report form on immunization, information obtained through PAHO's Revolving Fund for Vaccine Procurement and communications with managers of national Expanded Programs on Immunization (EPI). Results: Since 2008, 25 countries/territories in the Americas have introduced new target groups for vaccination or expanded the age ranges of existing target groups. As of 2014, 40 (89%) out of 45 countries/territories have policies established for seasonal influenza vaccination. Currently, 29 (64%) countries/territories target pregnant women for vaccination, the highest priority group according to WHO´s Stategic Advisory Group of Experts and PAHO/WHO's Technical Advisory Group on Vaccine-preventable Diseases, compared to only 7 (16%) in 2008. Among 23 countries reporting coverage data, on average, 75% of adults ≥60 years, 45% of children aged 6–23 months, 32% of children aged 5–2 years, 59% of pregnant women, 78% of healthcare workers, and 90% of individuals with chronic conditions were vaccinated during the 2013–14 Northern Hemisphere or 2014 Southern Hemisphere influenza vaccination activities. Difficulties however persist in the estimation of vaccination coverage, especially for pregnant women and persons with chronic conditions. Since 2007, 6 tropical countries have changed their vaccine formulation from the Northern to the Southern Hemisphere formulation and the timing of

  12. A comparative analysis of influenza vaccination programs.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shweta Bansal

    2006-10-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The threat of avian influenza and the 2004-2005 influenza vaccine supply shortage in the United States have sparked a debate about optimal vaccination strategies to reduce the burden of morbidity and mortality caused by the influenza virus. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We present a comparative analysis of two classes of suggested vaccination strategies: mortality-based strategies that target high-risk populations and morbidity-based strategies that target high-prevalence populations. Applying the methods of contact network epidemiology to a model of disease transmission in a large urban population, we assume that vaccine supplies are limited and then evaluate the efficacy of these strategies across a wide range of viral transmission rates and for two different age-specific mortality distributions. We find that the optimal strategy depends critically on the viral transmission level (reproductive rate of the virus: morbidity-based strategies outperform mortality-based strategies for moderately transmissible strains, while the reverse is true for highly transmissible strains. These results hold for a range of mortality rates reported for prior influenza epidemics and pandemics. Furthermore, we show that vaccination delays and multiple introductions of disease into the community have a more detrimental impact on morbidity-based strategies than mortality-based strategies. CONCLUSIONS: If public health officials have reasonable estimates of the viral transmission rate and the frequency of new introductions into the community prior to an outbreak, then these methods can guide the design of optimal vaccination priorities. When such information is unreliable or not available, as is often the case, this study recommends mortality-based vaccination priorities.

  13. The response of the Liguria Region (Italy) to the pandemic influenza virus A/H1N1sv.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amicizia, D; Cremonesi, I; Carloni, R; Schiaffino, S

    2011-09-01

    Influenza is a cause of acute respiratory disease. It has a typical epidemic nature during the winter season, but may also assume a pandemic pattern when a completely new virus spreads among humans. Influenza places a heavy economic and healthcare burden on both the National Health Service and society. During the 2009/2010 influenza pandemic season, the Liguria Region drew upon the specific skills of the various sectors of the Department of Health and Social Services. In collaboration with the Department of Health Sciences of the University of Genova, the Regional Health Agency (RHA) and other public organizations, steps were taken to address the issues of technical and scientific updating and the coordination of all the departments of Local Healthcare Units in Liguria. The main activities conducted at the regional level provided an adequate response to the influenza pandemic. These activities focused on Local and National Influenza Surveillance Systems, the regional Pandemic Plan, vaccination strategies for seasonal and pandemic influenza, and the communication of data from monitoring programs (sentinel physicians--syndromic surveillance). The prevention of influenza transmission and containment of epidemics and pandemics require effective communication strategies that should target the whole population.

  14. Influenza A (H1N1)pnd09 Vaccination of Pregnant Women and Immunological Consequences for Their Offspring

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bischoff, Anne Louise

    2013-01-01

    in the community. Influenza is also a major cause of morbidity and hospitalization in infants younger than six months. In particular the 2009 pandemic caused more severe disease in the neonates and young infants than in older children, all unprotected from passive immunity to this novel virus. No vaccination...... the woman is vaccinated. We found no changes in the incidence of infections in the first year of life in the children. In conclusion, we find the immune response to the H1N1pnd09 vaccine in pregnant women may be diminished compared with non-pregnant women. Furthermore, H1N1pnd09 vaccination during pregnancy......Pregnant women experience increased influenza related morbidity and mortality during seasonal influenza epidemics, and even graver outcomes during influenza pandemics. Thus, even though the huge amount of data on clinical efficacy and effectiveness of influenza vaccine in pregnant women...

  15. Informing the Front Line about Common Respiratory Viral Epidemics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gesteland, Per H; Samore, Matthew H; Pavia, Andrew T; Srivastava, Rajendu; Korgenski, Kent; Gerber, Kristine; Daly, Judy A; Mundorff, Michael B; Rolfs, Robert T; James, Brent C.; Byington, Carrie L.

    2007-01-01

    The nature of clinical medicine is to focus on individuals rather than the populations from which they originate. This orientation can be problematic in the context of acute healthcare delivery during routine winter outbreaks of viral respiratory disease where an individual’s likelihood of viral infection depends on knowledge of local disease incidence. The level of interest in and perceived utility of community and regional infection data for front line clinicians providing acute care is unclear. Based on input from clinicians, we developed an automated analysis and reporting system that delivers pathogen-specific epidemic curves derived from a viral panel that tests for influenza, RSV, adenovirus, parainfluenza and human metapneumovirus. Surveillance summaries were actively e-mailed to clinicians practicing in emergency, urgent and primary care settings and posted on a web site for passive consumption. We demonstrated the feasibility and sustainability of a system that provides both timely and clinically useful surveillance information. PMID:18693841

  16. Metapopulation epidemic models with heterogeneous mixing and travel behaviour

    CERN Document Server

    Apolloni, Andrea; Ramasco, Jose' J; Jensen, Pablo; Colizza, Vittoria

    2014-01-01

    The complex interplay between population movements in space and non-homogeneous mixing patterns have so far hindered the fundamental understanding of the conditions for spatial invasion through a general theoretical framework. To address this issue, we present an analytical modelling approach taking into account such interplay under general conditions of mobility and interactions, in the simplifying assumption of two population classes. We describe a spatially structured population with non-homogeneous mixing and travel behaviour through a multi-host stochastic epidemic metapopulation model. Different population partitions, mixing patterns and mobility structures are considered, along with a specific application for the study of the role of age partition in the early spread of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic influenza. We provide a complete mathematical formulation of the model and derive a semi-analytical expression of the threshold condition for global invasion of an emerging infectious disease in the metapopulation...

  17. Understanding Ebola: the 2014 epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaner, Jolie; Schaack, Sarah

    2016-01-01

    Near the end of 2013, an outbreak of Zaire ebolavirus (EBOV) began in Guinea, subsequently spreading to neighboring Liberia and Sierra Leone. As this epidemic grew, important public health questions emerged about how and why this outbreak was so different from previous episodes. This review provides a synthetic synopsis of the 2014-15 outbreak, with the aim of understanding its unprecedented spread. We present a summary of the history of previous epidemics, describe the structure and genetics of the ebolavirus, and review our current understanding of viral vectors and the latest treatment practices. We conclude with an analysis of the public health challenges epidemic responders faced and some of the lessons that could be applied to future outbreaks of Ebola or other viruses. PMID:27624088

  18. A data-driven model for influenza transmission incorporating media effects

    CERN Document Server

    Mitchell, Lewis

    2016-01-01

    Numerous studies have attempted to model the effect of mass media on the transmission of diseases such as influenza, however quantitative data on media engagement has until recently been difficult to obtain. With the recent explosion of "big data" coming from online social media and the like, large volumes of data on a population's engagement with mass media during an epidemic are becoming available to researchers. In this study we combine an online data set comprising millions of shared messages relating to influenza with traditional surveillance data on flu activity to suggest a functional form for the relationship between the two. Using this data we present a simple deterministic model for influenza dynamics incorporating media effects, and show that such a model helps explain the dynamics of historical influenza outbreaks. Furthermore, through model selection we show that the proposed media function fits historical data better than other media functions proposed in earlier studies.

  19. Multi-Omics Studies towards Novel Modulators of Influenza A Virus–Host Interaction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sandra Söderholm

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Human influenza A viruses (IAVs cause global pandemics and epidemics. These viruses evolve rapidly, making current treatment options ineffective. To identify novel modulators of IAV–host interactions, we re-analyzed our recent transcriptomics, metabolomics, proteomics, phosphoproteomics, and genomics/virtual ligand screening data. We identified 713 potential modulators targeting 199 cellular and two viral proteins. Anti-influenza activity for 48 of them has been reported previously, whereas the antiviral efficacy of the 665 remains unknown. Studying anti-influenza efficacy and immuno/neuro-modulating properties of these compounds and their combinations as well as potential viral and host resistance to them may lead to the discovery of novel modulators of IAV–host interactions, which might be more effective than the currently available anti-influenza therapeutics.

  20. Nephrotic Syndrome Following H1N1 Influenza in a 3-Year-Old Boy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pio Liberatore

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Background: The pandemic influenza A/H1N1, spread through the world in 2009, producing a serious epidemic in Italy. Complications are generally limited to patients at the extremes of age (65years and those with comorbid medical illness. The most frequent complications of influenza involve the respiratory system.Case Presentation: A 3-year-old boy with a recent history of upper respiratory tract infection developed a nephrotic syndrome. Together with prednisone, furosemide and albumin bolus, a therapy with oseltamivir was started since the nasopharyngeal swab resulted positive for influenza A/H1N1. Clinical conditions andlaboratory findings progressively improved during hospitalization, becoming normal during a 2 month follow up.Conclusion: The possibility of a renal involvement after influenza A/H1N1 infection should be considered.

  1. Haemophilus Influenzae Type b

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Issues Listen Español Text Size Email Print Share Haemophilus Influenzae type b Page Content Article Body If you’re like many parents, you may have been unfamiliar with Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib) infections until your pediatrician recommended a vaccine ...

  2. INFLUENZA VIRUS IN POULTRY

    Science.gov (United States)

    Avian influenza virus (AIV) is normally found in wild birds, particularly in ducks and shorebirds, where it does not cause any perceptible clinical disease. However, poultry, including chickens and turkeys, are not normal hosts for avian influenza, but if the virus is introduced it can result in mi...

  3. National Pandemic Influenza Plan

    OpenAIRE

    Department of Health

    2007-01-01

    National Pandemic Influenza Plan The purpose of this document is to tell you about pandemic influenza (flu), to explain what the Government and the health services are doing to prepare for a possible pandemic and most importantly, to advise you what you need to do if there is a pandemic. Click here to download PDF 614kb

  4. Haemophilus influenzae biotype VII.

    OpenAIRE

    Gratten, M

    1983-01-01

    A hitherto unreported biotype of Haemophilus influenzae is described. The isolate is noncapsulate and fails to decarboxylate ornithine or hydrolyze urea but is a strong indole producer. Its frequency is low. It is suggested that this newly recognized biotype of H. influenzae be designated biotype VII.

  5. Analysis of influenza epidemiological characteristics in Chaozhou, Guangdong province, 2013%2013年广东省潮州市流行性感冒流行特征分析

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    苏雪銮; 谢璧珠; 陈爱苗; 杨惠钿; 林敏

    2014-01-01

    目的:了解广东省潮州市2013年度流行性感冒流行特征及病毒流行株构成。方法采集监测哨点医院疑似流感样患者咽拭子标本,采用实时荧光 PCR(real-time RT-PCR)检测病毒核酸。结果全市流感检测哨点医院共采集标本830份,流感病毒核酸阳性为53份,阳性率为6.39%;其中新甲型 H1N1流感占49.06%(26/53)、乙型流感病毒占28.30%(15/53)、季节性流感病毒 H3亚型占22.64%(12/53),未分离到季节性流感病毒H1。4月和12月为年度病毒检测高峰。病毒感染率以5~14岁组(14.12%)最高,与其它组比较存在统计学差异(P <0.05)。结论2013年度潮州市流感病毒优势株为新型甲型H1N1,全年有2个流行高峰,在4月和12月,主要发病人群为学龄前儿童和小学生。%Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of influenza and the composition of epidemic strains in Chaozhou, Guangdong province, 2013. Methods Throat swabs were collected from influenza-like patients in influenza-monitoring hospitals and real-time RT-PCR was used to detect influenza viruses in these samples. Results 53 strains of influenza viruses were detected from the 830 throat swabs (6.39%), including 26 strains of novel influenza A (H1N1) viruses (49.06%, 26/53), 15 strains of B influenza virus (28.30%, 15/53) and 12 strains of H3 subtype influenza virus (22.64%, 12/53). None of H1 subtype influenza virus was isolated from these samples. The annual peaks of virus detection were in April and December. The highest virus prevalence (14.12%) was observed in 5 ~ 14 years old group and statistical difference was found between it and other groups (P < 0.05). Conclusion The predominant influenza virus detected in Chaozhou in 2013 was H1N1 virus. Two prevalent peaks of influenza viruses were in April and December and the infections mainly occurred among pre-school children and pupils.

  6. Combination Chemotherapy for Influenza

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert G. Webster

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available The emergence of pandemic H1N1 influenza viruses in April 2009 and the continuous evolution of highly pathogenic H5N1 influenza viruses underscore the urgency of novel approaches to chemotherapy for human influenza infection. Anti-influenza drugs are currently limited to the neuraminidase inhibitors (oseltamivir and zanamivir and to M2 ion channel blockers (amantadine and rimantadine, although resistance to the latter class develops rapidly. Potential targets for the development of new anti-influenza agents include the viral polymerase (and endonuclease, the hemagglutinin, and the non-structural protein NS1. The limitations of monotherapy and the emergence of drug-resistant variants make combination chemotherapy the logical therapeutic option. Here we review the experimental data on combination chemotherapy with currently available agents and the development of new agents and therapy targets.

  7. Barriers to pandemic influenza vaccination and uptake of seasonal influenza vaccine in the post-pandemic season in Germany

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Böhmer Merle M

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In Germany, annual vaccination against seasonal influenza is recommended for certain target groups (e.g. persons aged ≥60 years, chronically ill persons, healthcare workers (HCW. In season 2009/10, vaccination against pandemic influenza A(H1N1pdm09, which was controversially discussed in the public, was recommended for the whole population. The objectives of this study were to assess vaccination coverage for seasonal (seasons 2008/09-2010/11 and pandemic influenza (season 2009/10, to identify predictors of and barriers to pandemic vaccine uptake and whether the controversial discussions on pandemic vaccination has had a negative impact on seasonal influenza vaccine uptake in Germany. Methods We analysed data from the ‘German Health Update’ (GEDA10 telephone survey (n=22,050 and a smaller GEDA10-follow-up survey (n=2,493, which were both representative of the general population aged ≥18 years living in Germany. Results Overall only 8.8% of the adult population in Germany received a vaccination against pandemic influenza. High socioeconomic status, having received a seasonal influenza shot in the previous season, and belonging to a target group for seasonal influenza vaccination were independently associated with the uptake of pandemic vaccines. The main reasons for not receiving a pandemic vaccination were ‘fear of side effects’ and the opinion that ‘vaccination was not necessary’. Seasonal influenza vaccine uptake in the pre-pandemic season 2008/09 was 52.8% among persons aged ≥60 years; 30.5% among HCW, and 43.3% among chronically ill persons. A decrease in vaccination coverage was observed across all target groups in the first post-pandemic season 2010/11 (50.6%, 25.8%, and 41.0% vaccination coverage, respectively. Conclusions Seasonal influenza vaccination coverage in Germany remains in all target groups below 75%, which is a declared goal of the European Union. Our results suggest that controversial

  8. Unspecified gastroenteritis illness and deaths in the elderly associated with norovirus epidemics.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Asten, L. van; Siebenga, J.; Wijngaard, C. van den; Verheij, R.; Vliet, H. van; Kretzschmar, M.; Boshuizen, H.; Pelt, W. van; Koopmans, M.

    2011-01-01

    BACKGROUND: New variant strains of norovirus have emerged worldwide in recent years, evolving by mutation much like influenza viruses. These strains have been associated with a notable increase in the number of annual norovirus outbreaks. However, the impact of such increased norovirus activity on m

  9. Unspecified gastroenteritis illness and deaths in the elderly associated with norovirus epidemics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Asten, van L.; Siebenga, J.; Wijngaard, van den C.; Verheij, R.; Vliet, van H.; Kretzschmar, M.; Boshuizen, H.C.; Pelt, van W.; Koopmans, M.

    2011-01-01

    Background: New variant strains of norovirus have emerged worldwide in recent years, evolving by mutation much like influenza viruses. These strains have been associated with a notable increase in the number of annual norovirus outbreaks. However, the impact of such increased norovirus activity on m

  10. Influenza viral infections among the Iranian Hajj pilgrims returning to Shiraz, Fars province, Iran

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moattari, Afagh; Emami, Amir; Moghadami, Mohsen; Honarvar, Behnam

    2012-01-01

    Please cite this paper as: Moattari et al. (2012) Influenza viral infections among the Iranian Hajj pilgrims returning to Shiraz, Fars province, Iran. Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses 6(601), e77–e79 Background  Annually over two million Muslims from across the world converge on Mecca to perform the Hajj pilgrimage. Overcrowding at the Hajj facilitates spread of communicable diseases, especially respiratory infections. The aim of this study was to determine the attack rate of seasonal and pandemic influenza among returning Iranian pilgrims after the 2009 Hajj. Methods  Clinical data and throat swabs were collected at Shiraz airport from symptomatic Iranian pilgrims of Fars province who were returning from the Hajj between 15 and 21 December 2009. The specimens were tested at the Shiraz University of Medical Sciences Influenza Research Center for influenza viruses by cell culture and real‐time reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RTrtPCR) according to standard protocol. Findings  Out of 3000 pilgrims from Fars province who attended the Hajj 2009, 275 symptomatic pilgrims were recruited into this study. Pilgrims had fever, cough, muscle ache and sore throat in various combinations. Twenty‐five (9·1%) pilgrims had influenza by virus culture and these were as follows: influenza B (n = 17), influenza A H3N2 (n = 8) and pandemic H1N1 (n = 5), whereas 33 (12%) had influenza by RTrtPCR: influenza B (n = 20), influenza A H3N2 (n = 8) and pandemic H1N1 (n = 5). Interpretation  Both seasonal and pandemic influenza infections occurred among the Iranian Hajj pilgrims; seasonal viruses were more common than the pandemic viruses even though all pilgrims were vaccinated against seasonal influenza. PMID:22606996

  11. Global circulation patterns of seasonal influenza viruses vary with antigenic drift

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bedford, Trevor; Riley, Steven; Barr, Ian G.; Broor, Shobha; Chadha, Mandeep; Cox, Nancy J.; Daniels, Rodney S.; Gunasekaran, C. Palani; Hurt, Aeron C.; Kelso, Anne; Klimov, Alexander; Lewis, Nicola S.; Li, Xiyan; McCauley, John W.; Odagiri, Takato; Potdar, Varsha; Rambaut, Andrew; Shu, Yuelong; Skepner, Eugene; Smith, Derek J.; Suchard, Marc A.; Tashiro, Masato; Wang, Dayan; Xu, Xiyan; Lemey, Philippe; Russell, Colin A.

    2015-07-01

    Understanding the spatiotemporal patterns of emergence and circulation of new human seasonal influenza virus variants is a key scientific and public health challenge. The global circulation patterns of influenza A/H3N2 viruses are well characterized, but the patterns of A/H1N1 and B viruses have remained largely unexplored. Here we show that the global circulation patterns of A/H1N1 (up to 2009), B/Victoria, and B/Yamagata viruses differ substantially from those of A/H3N2 viruses, on the basis of analyses of 9,604 haemagglutinin sequences of human seasonal influenza viruses from 2000 to 2012. Whereas genetic variants of A/H3N2 viruses did not persist locally between epidemics and were reseeded from East and Southeast Asia, genetic variants of A/H1N1 and B viruses persisted across several seasons and exhibited complex global dynamics with East and Southeast Asia playing a limited role in disseminating new variants. The less frequent global movement of influenza A/H1N1 and B viruses coincided with slower rates of antigenic evolution, lower ages of infection, and smaller, less frequent epidemics compared to A/H3N2 viruses. Detailed epidemic models support differences in age of infection, combined with the less frequent travel of children, as probable drivers of the differences in the patterns of global circulation, suggesting a complex interaction between virus evolution, epidemiology, and human behaviour.

  12. Effect of modelling slum populations on influenza spread in Delhi

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Jiangzhuo; Chu, Shuyu; Chungbaek, Youngyun; Khan, Maleq; Kuhlman, Christopher; Marathe, Achla; Mortveit, Henning; Vullikanti, Anil; Xie, Dawen

    2016-01-01

    Objectives This research studies the impact of influenza epidemic in the slum and non-slum areas of Delhi, the National Capital Territory of India, by taking proper account of slum demographics and residents’ activities, using a highly resolved social contact network of the 13.8 million residents of Delhi. Methods An SEIR model is used to simulate the spread of influenza on two different synthetic social contact networks of Delhi, one where slums and non-slums are treated the same in terms of their demographics and daily sets of activities and the other, where slum and non-slum regions have different attributes. Results Differences between the epidemic outcomes on the two networks are large. Time-to-peak infection is overestimated by several weeks, and the cumulative infection rate and peak infection rate are underestimated by 10–50%, when slum attributes are ignored. Conclusions Slum populations have a significant effect on influenza transmission in urban areas. Improper specification of slums in large urban regions results in underestimation of infections in the entire population and hence will lead to misguided interventions by policy planners. PMID:27687898

  13. A study of the swine flu (H1N1 epidemic among health care providers of a medical college hospital of Delhi

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Om Prakash Rajoura

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Influenza viruses cause annual epidemics and occasional pandemics that have claimed the lives of millions. Understanding the role of specific perceptions in motivating people to engage in precautionary behavior may help health communicators to improve their messages about outbreaks of new infectious disease generally and swine flu specifically. Objectives: To study the knowledge and practices of health care providers regarding swine flu and to study the attitudes and practices of health care providers toward the prevention of the swine flu epidemic. Materials and Methods: The present study was a cross-sectional (descriptive study and was conducted in the month of September, 2009, among doctors and nurses. A maximum of 40% of the total health care providers of GTB Hospital were covered because of feasibility and logistics, and, therefore, the sample size was 334. Results: Around 75% of the health care providers were aware about the symptoms of swine flu. Mostly, all study subjects were aware that it is transmitted through droplet infection. Correct knowledge of the incubation period of swine flu was known to 80% of the doctors and 69% of the nurses. Knowledge about high-risk groups (contacts, travelers, health care providers was observed among 88% of the doctors and 78.8% of the nurses. Practice of wearing mask during duty hours was observed among 82.6% of doctors and 85% of nurses, whereas of the total study population, only 40% were correctly using mask during duty hours. Conclusions: Significant gaps observed between knowledge and actual practice of the Health Care Provider regarding swine flu need to be filled by appropriate training. Data indicate that the health care providers are very intellectual, but they do not themselves practice what they preach.

  14. Visual Mining of Epidemic Networks

    CERN Document Server

    Clémençon, Stéphan; Rossi, Fabrice; Tran, Viet Chi; 10.1007/978-3-642-21498-1_35

    2012-01-01

    We show how an interactive graph visualization method based on maximal modularity clustering can be used to explore a large epidemic network. The visual representation is used to display statistical tests results that expose the relations between the propagation of HIV in a sexual contact network and the sexual orientation of the patients.

  15. Epidemic threshold in directed networks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Li, C.; Wang, H.; Van Mieghem, P.F.A.

    2013-01-01

    Epidemics have so far been mostly studied in undirected networks. However, many real-world networks, such as the online social network Twitter and the world wide web, on which information, emotion, or malware spreads, are directed networks, composed of both unidirectional links and bidirectional lin

  16. Epidemic Spread in Human Networks

    CERN Document Server

    Sahneh, Faryad Darabi

    2011-01-01

    One of the popular dynamics on complex networks is the epidemic spreading. An epidemic model describes how infections spread throughout a network. Among the compartmental models used to describe epidemics, the Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS) model has been widely used. In the SIS model, each node can be susceptible, become infected with a given infection rate, and become again susceptible with a given curing rate. In this paper, we add a new compartment to the classic SIS model to account for human response to epidemic spread. Each individual can be infected, susceptible, or alert. Susceptible individuals can become alert with an alerting rate if infected individuals exist in their neighborhood. An individual in the alert state is less probable to become infected than an individual in the susceptible state; due to a newly adopted cautious behavior. The problem is formulated as a continuous-time Markov process on a general static graph and then modeled into a set of ordinary differential equations using...

  17. Stochastic Processes in Epidemic Theory

    CERN Document Server

    Lefèvre, Claude; Picard, Philippe

    1990-01-01

    This collection of papers gives a representative cross-selectional view of recent developments in the field. After a survey paper by C. Lefèvre, 17 other research papers look at stochastic modeling of epidemics, both from a theoretical and a statistical point of view. Some look more specifically at a particular disease such as AIDS, malaria, schistosomiasis and diabetes.

  18. An epidemic outbreak of cryptosporidiosis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mølbak, Kåre; Højlyng, Niels; Ingholt, Liselotte;

    1990-01-01

    significantly associated with diarrhea (OR = 2.79, P = 0.0006). The seasonal distribution was striking, with a peak prevalence in the beginning of the rainy season (May 17.6%) when an epidemic outbreak of diarrhea started. The prevalence was highest in children younger than 18 months, an age at which...

  19. Measured dynamic social contact patterns explain the spread of H1N1v influenza.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eames, Ken T D; Tilston, Natasha L; Brooks-Pollock, Ellen; Edmunds, W John

    2012-01-01

    Patterns of social mixing are key determinants of epidemic spread. Here we present the results of an internet-based social contact survey completed by a cohort of participants over 9,000 times between July 2009 and March 2010, during the 2009 H1N1v influenza epidemic. We quantify the changes in social contact patterns over time, finding that school children make 40% fewer contacts during holiday periods than during term time. We use these dynamically varying contact patterns to parameterise an age-structured model of influenza spread, capturing well the observed patterns of incidence; the changing contact patterns resulted in a fall of approximately 35% in the reproduction number of influenza during the holidays. This work illustrates the importance of including changing mixing patterns in epidemic models. We conclude that changes in contact patterns explain changes in disease incidence, and that the timing of school terms drove the 2009 H1N1v epidemic in the UK. Changes in social mixing patterns can be usefully measured through simple internet-based surveys. PMID:22412366

  20. Importation and spread of pandemic influenza virus a(H1N1 in Autonomous Province of vojvodina in preepidemic period

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ristić Mioljub

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction. Influenza is the most frequently reported communicable disease, having epidemic and pandemic potential. The first influenza pandemic in this century started in Mexico and spread quickly throughout the world. This paper analyses importation of pandemic influenza cases and local transmission among population in the Autonomous Province of Vojvodina. Material and methods. According to the WHO guidelines and national recommendations, the influenza surveillance activities were conducted in Vojvodina in order to detect, isolate and treat affected international travelers and their close contacts. Patients whose pandemic influenza infection was laboratory confirmed were classified as confirmed cases, while those with symptoms who were epidemiologically linked with confirmed cases were classified as probable cases. Results. During the period from the 24th of June to 17th of August 2009, 123 pandemic influenza cases were recorded in Vojvodina. Infection was imported through international travelers and our citizens coming from countries affected by influenza outbreaks. Majority of cases had mild clinical picture. Most frequently reported symptoms were high fever (above 38oC (85.6%, and cough (61.6%. Difficulty in breathing was recorded in 20 (16.0% cases, while pneumonia developed in 4 (3.2% cases but none of the cases required mechanical ventilation. Conclusion. The imported cases of pandemic influenza in the pre-epidemic period led to limited local transmission in general population and caused a small outbreak among visitors of International music festival called EXIT.

  1. The Scourge of Asian Flu: In Utero Exposure to Pandemic Influenza and the Development of a Cohort of British Children

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelly, Elaine

    2011-01-01

    This paper examines the impact of in utero exposure to the Asian influenza pandemic of 1957 upon childhood development. Outcome data are provided by the National Child Development Study (NCDS), a panel study where all members were potentially exposed in the womb. Epidemic effects are identified using geographic variation in a surrogate measure of…

  2. Acute infectious diseases and immunologic responses. Some stories from clinical practice apropos the Influenza A (H1N1 pandemic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alfredo Darío Espinosa Brito

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Apropos of the appearance of some unusual clinical pictures in the course of the recent epidemic of Influenza A (H1N1, and with the intention of sharing controversial ideas related to the immunologic responses of the patients to the infectious agents, we expose here a group of stories arisen from a clinical practice of almost five decades.

  3. Epidemics spreading in interconnected complex networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Y. [School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore 639798 (Singapore); Institute of High Performance Computing, Agency for Science, Technology and Research (A-STAR), Singapore 138632 (Singapore); Xiao, G., E-mail: egxxiao@ntu.edu.sg [School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore 639798 (Singapore)

    2012-09-03

    We study epidemic spreading in two interconnected complex networks. It is found that in our model the epidemic threshold of the interconnected network is always lower than that in any of the two component networks. Detailed theoretical analysis is proposed which allows quick and accurate calculations of epidemic threshold and average outbreak/epidemic size. Theoretical analysis and simulation results show that, generally speaking, the epidemic size is not significantly affected by the inter-network correlation. In interdependent networks which can be viewed as a special case of interconnected networks, however, impacts of inter-network correlation on the epidemic threshold and outbreak size are more significant. -- Highlights: ► We study epidemic spreading in two interconnected complex networks. ► The epidemic threshold is lower than that in any of the two networks. And Interconnection correlation has impacts on threshold and average outbreak size. ► Detailed theoretical analysis is proposed which allows quick and accurate calculations of epidemic threshold and average outbreak/epidemic size. ► We demonstrated and proved that Interconnection correlation does not affect epidemic size significantly. ► In interdependent networks, impacts of inter-network correlation on the epidemic threshold and outbreak size are more significant.

  4. OX40 ligand newly expressed on bronchiolar progenitors mediates influenza infection and further exacerbates pneumonia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hirano, Taizou; Kikuchi, Toshiaki; Tode, Naoki; Santoso, Arif; Yamada, Mitsuhiro; Mitsuhashi, Yoshiya; Komatsu, Riyo; Kawabe, Takeshi; Tanimoto, Takeshi; Ishii, Naoto; Tanaka, Yuetsu; Nishimura, Hidekazu; Nukiwa, Toshihiro; Watanabe, Akira; Ichinose, Masakazu

    2016-01-01

    Influenza virus epidemics potentially cause pneumonia, which is responsible for much of the mortality due to the excessive immune responses. The role of costimulatory OX40-OX40 ligand (OX40L) interactions has been explored in the non-infectious pathology of influenza pneumonia. Here, we describe a critical contribution of OX40L to infectious pathology, with OX40L deficiency, but not OX40 deficiency, resulting in decreased susceptibility to influenza viral infection. Upon infection, bronchiolar progenitors increase in number for repairing the influenza-damaged epithelia. The OX40L expression is induced on the progenitors for the antiviral immunity during the infectious process. However, these defense-like host responses lead to more extensive infection owing to the induced OX40L with α-2,6 sialic acid modification, which augments the interaction with the viral hemagglutinin. In fact, the specific antibody against the sialylated site of OX40L exhibited therapeutic potency in mitigating the OX40L-mediated susceptibility to influenza. Our data illustrate that the influenza-induced expression of OX40L on bronchiolar progenitors has pathogenic value to develop a novel therapeutic approach against influenza. PMID:26976612

  5. Prediction of H7N9 epidemic in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Zhang Zhaojie; Xia Yao; Lu Yi; Yang Jingchao; Zhang Luwen; Su Hui; Lin Lili

    2014-01-01

    Background In March 2013,human cases of infection with a novel A (H7N9) influenza virus emerged in China.The epidemic spread quickly and as of 6 May 2013,there were 129 confirmed cases.The purpose of this study was to analyze the epidemiology of the confirmed cases,determine the impacts of bird migration and temperature changes on the H7N9 epidemic,predict the future trends of the epidemic,explore the response patterns of the government and propose preventive suggestions.Methods The geographic,temporal and population distribution of all cases reported up to 6 May 2013 were described from available records.Risk assessment standard was established by analysing the temperature and relative humidity records during the period of extensive outbreak in three epidemic regions in eastern China,including Shanghai,Zhejiang and Jiangsu provinces.Risk assessment maps were created by combining the bird migration routes in eastern China with the monthly average temperatures from May 1993 to December 2012 nationwide.Results Among the confirmed cases,there were more men than women,and 50.4% were elderly adults (age >61 years).The major demographic groups were retirees and farmers.The temperature on the days of disease onset was concentrated in the range of 9℃-19℃; we defined 9℃-19℃ as the high-risk temperature range,0℃-9℃ or 19℃-25℃ as medium risk and <0℃ or >25℃ as low risk.The relative humidity on the days of disease onset ranged widely from 25% to 99%,but did not correlate with the incidence of infection.Based on the temperature analysis and the eastern bird migration routes,we predicted that after May,the high-risk region would move to the northeast and inland,while after September,it would move back to north China.Conclusions Temperature and bird migration strongly influence the spread of the H7N9 virus.In order to control the H7N9 epidemic effectively,Chinese authorities should strengthen the surveillance of migrating birds,increase poultry and

  6. Demographic variability, vaccination, and the spatiotemporal dynamics of rotavirus epidemics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pitzer, Virginia E; Viboud, Cécile; Simonsen, Lone; Steiner, Claudia; Panozzo, Catherine A; Alonso, Wladimir J; Miller, Mark A; Glass, Roger I; Glasser, John W; Parashar, Umesh D; Grenfell, Bryan T

    2009-07-17

    Historically, annual rotavirus activity in the United States has started in the southwest in late fall and ended in the northeast 3 months later; this trend has diminished in recent years. Traveling waves of infection or local environmental drivers cannot account for these patterns. A transmission model calibrated against epidemiological data shows that spatiotemporal variation in birth rate can explain the timing of rotavirus epidemics. The recent large-scale introduction of rotavirus vaccination provides a natural experiment to further test the impact of susceptible recruitment on disease dynamics. The model predicts a pattern of reduced and lagged epidemics postvaccination, closely matching the observed dynamics. Armed with this validated model, we explore the relative importance of direct and indirect protection, a key issue in determining the worldwide benefits of vaccination. PMID:19608910

  7. Risk maps for the spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza in poultry.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gert Jan Boender

    2007-04-01

    Full Text Available Devastating epidemics of highly contagious animal diseases such as avian influenza, classical swine fever, and foot-and-mouth disease underline the need for improved understanding of the factors promoting the spread of these pathogens. Here the authors present a spatial analysis of the between-farm transmission of a highly pathogenic H7N7 avian influenza virus that caused a large epidemic in The Netherlands in 2003. The authors developed a method to estimate key parameters determining the spread of highly transmissible animal diseases between farms based on outbreak data. The method allows for the identification of high-risk areas for propagating spread in an epidemiologically underpinned manner. A central concept is the transmission kernel, which determines the probability of pathogen transmission from infected to uninfected farms as a function of interfarm distance. The authors show how an estimate of the transmission kernel naturally provides estimates of the critical farm density and local reproduction numbers, which allows one to evaluate the effectiveness of control strategies. For avian influenza, the analyses show that there are two poultry-dense areas in The Netherlands where epidemic spread is possible, and in which local control measures are unlikely to be able to halt an unfolding epidemic. In these regions an epidemic can only be brought to an end by the depletion of susceptible farms by infection or massive culling. The analyses provide an estimate of the spatial range over which highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses spread between farms, and emphasize that control measures aimed at controlling such outbreaks need to take into account the local density of farms.

  8. Influenza in outpatient ILI case-patients in national hospital-based surveillance, Bangladesh, 2007-2008.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rashid Uz Zaman

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Recent population-based estimates in a Dhaka low-income community suggest that influenza was prevalent among children. To explore the epidemiology and seasonality of influenza throughout the country and among all age groups, we established nationally representative hospital-based surveillance necessary to guide influenza prevention and control efforts. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We conducted influenza-like illness and severe acute respiratory illness sentinel surveillance in 12 hospitals across Bangladesh during May 2007-December 2008. We collected specimens from 3,699 patients, 385 (10% which were influenza positive by real time RT-PCR. Among the sample-positive patients, 192 (51% were type A and 188 (49% were type B. Hemagglutinin subtyping of type A viruses detected 137 (71% A/H1 and 55 (29% A/H3, but no A/H5 or other novel influenza strains. The frequency of influenza cases was highest among children aged under 5 years (44%, while the proportions of laboratory confirmed cases was highest among participants aged 11-15 (18%. We applied kriging, a geo-statistical technique, to explore the spatial and temporal spread of influenza and found that, during 2008, influenza was first identified in large port cities and then gradually spread to other parts of the country. We identified a distinct influenza peak during the rainy season (May-September. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our surveillance data confirms that influenza is prevalent throughout Bangladesh, affecting a wide range of ages and causing considerable morbidity and hospital care. A unimodal influenza seasonality may allow Bangladesh to time annual influenza prevention messages and vaccination campaigns to reduce the national influenza burden. To scale-up such national interventions, we need to quantify the national rates of influenza and the economic burden associated with this disease through further studies.

  9. Statistical estimates of absenteeism attributable to seasonal and pandemic influenza from the Canadian Labour Force Survey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zheng Hui

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background As many respiratory viruses are responsible for influenza like symptoms, accurate measures of the disease burden are not available and estimates are generally based on statistical methods. The objective of this study was to estimate absenteeism rates and hours lost due to seasonal influenza and compare these estimates with estimates of absenteeism attributable to the two H1N1 pandemic waves that occurred in 2009. Methods Key absenteeism variables were extracted from Statistics Canada's monthly labour force survey (LFS. Absenteeism and the proportion of hours lost due to own illness or disability were modelled as a function of trend, seasonality and proxy variables for influenza activity from 1998 to 2009. Results Hours lost due to the H1N1/09 pandemic strain were elevated compared to seasonal influenza, accounting for a loss of 0.2% of potential hours worked annually. In comparison, an estimated 0.08% of hours worked annually were lost due to seasonal influenza illnesses. Absenteeism rates due to influenza were estimated at 12% per year for seasonal influenza over the 1997/98 to 2008/09 seasons, and 13% for the two H1N1/09 pandemic waves. Employees who took time off due to a seasonal influenza infection took an average of 14 hours off. For the pandemic strain, the average absence was 25 hours. Conclusions This study confirms that absenteeism due to seasonal influenza has typically ranged from 5% to 20%, with higher rates associated with multiple circulating strains. Absenteeism rates for the 2009 pandemic were similar to those occurring for seasonal influenza. Employees took more time off due to the pandemic strain than was typical for seasonal influenza.

  10. Climate-based models for understanding and forecasting dengue epidemics.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elodie Descloux

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Dengue dynamics are driven by complex interactions between human-hosts, mosquito-vectors and viruses that are influenced by environmental and climatic factors. The objectives of this study were to analyze and model the relationships between climate, Aedes aegypti vectors and dengue outbreaks in Noumea (New Caledonia, and to provide an early warning system. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Epidemiological and meteorological data were analyzed from 1971 to 2010 in Noumea. Entomological surveillance indices were available from March 2000 to December 2009. During epidemic years, the distribution of dengue cases was highly seasonal. The epidemic peak (March-April lagged the warmest temperature by 1-2 months and was in phase with maximum precipitations, relative humidity and entomological indices. Significant inter-annual correlations were observed between the risk of outbreak and summertime temperature, precipitations or relative humidity but not ENSO. Climate-based multivariate non-linear models were developed to estimate the yearly risk of dengue outbreak in Noumea. The best explicative meteorological variables were the number of days with maximal temperature exceeding 32°C during January-February-March and the number of days with maximal relative humidity exceeding 95% during January. The best predictive variables were the maximal temperature in December and maximal relative humidity during October-November-December of the previous year. For a probability of dengue outbreak above 65% in leave-one-out cross validation, the explicative model predicted 94% of the epidemic years and 79% of the non epidemic years, and the predictive model 79% and 65%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The epidemic dynamics of dengue in Noumea were essentially driven by climate during the last forty years. Specific conditions based on maximal temperature and relative humidity thresholds were determinant in outbreaks occurrence. Their persistence was

  11. Some Observations on Naso-pharyngeal Epidemics in Public Schools.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glover, J A

    1928-07-01

    Over 80 per cent. of school sickness, whether judged by the number of cases or by the time lost, is transmitted by "droplet" infection.The alleged increase in sickness in public schools is partly apparent, due to increased attention to minor febricula and partly real, due (1) to increased influenza prevalence, the aftermath of the great epidemic of 1918, and (2) to the increased demand for public school education leading to pressure upon accommodation, and especially to overcrowding in dormitories.The bulk of the droplet infections are accounted for by (1) influenza; (2) feverish cold, chill, or P.U.O.; (3) tonsillitis; regular infectious diseases make a comparatively small showing. The incidence and bacteriological findings and the variations in the incidence of pneumonia and otitis media are discussed. Are these complications really secondary epidemics? Tonsillitis, bacteriological findings, milk.Prophylaxis.-Efficacy of vaccines uncertain. Some evidence that they may diminish the onset of complications. If given vaccines should be administered before the danger period, i.e., not later than November.Intensive prophylaxia other than vaccines during the first half of the Lent term would probably amply repay any trouble. It should include:-(a) Special efforts to prevent boys returning to school after the Christmas holidays infected with influenza or febricula.(b) Temperature taking for three weeks.(c) Immediate isolation of all pyrexias and catarrhs.(d) No work before breakfast for at least the first six weeks of the term.(e) All hot baths and showers taken during the day or after games to be followed by cold showers.(f) Prevention of chill in watching games, etc.(g) Increased provision for drying clothes, uniforms and boots.Infection mainly takes place in sleeping quarters, and proper spacing out of beds and thorough "cross" ventilation in dormitories is of paramount importance; instances of cross infection due to proximity of beds; illustrated by bed charts and

  12. Synthesis and characterization of antigenic influenza A M2e protein peptide-poly(acrylic) acid bioconjugate and determination of toxicity in vitro

    OpenAIRE

    Kilinc, Yasemin Budama; Akdeste, Zeynep Mustafaeva; Koc, Rabia Cakir; Bagirova, Melahat; Allahverdiyev, Adil

    2014-01-01

    The influenza A virus is a critical public health problem that causes epidemics and pandemics, and occurs widely all over the world. Various vaccines against the virus have not provided a solution to the problem. Different approaches, particularly M2e peptide–based vaccines, are available for developing universal vaccines against influenza A. However, it is important to select a suitable carrier to obtain an effective vaccine. Accordingly, studies on the usage of various carriers are ongoing....

  13. Estimating infection attack rates and severity in real time during an influenza pandemic: Analysis of serial cross-sectional serologic surveillance data

    OpenAIRE

    Wu, Joseph T.; Ho, Andrew; Ma, Edward S.K.; Lee, Cheuk Kwong; Daniel K W Chu; Ho, Po-Lai; Hung, Ivan F. N.; Ho, Lai Ming; Lin, Che Kit; Tsang, Thomas; Lo, Su-Vui; Lau, Yu-Lung; Leung, Gabriel M; Cowling, Benjamin J; Peiris, J.S. Malik

    2011-01-01

    Editors' Summary Background Every winter, millions of people catch influenza—a viral infection of the airways—and about half a million die as a result. These seasonal epidemics occur because small but frequent changes in the influenza virus mean that the immune response produced by infection with one year's virus provides only partial protection against the next year's virus. Occasionally, however, a very different influenza virus emerges to which people have virtually no immunity. Such virus...

  14. Evaluation of Wondfo influenza A&B fast test based on immunochromatography assay for rapid diagnosis of influenza A H1N1

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yunping Peng

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Influenza viruses cause significant morbidity and mortality in both children and adults during local outbreaks or epidemics. Therefore, a rapid test for influenza A&B would be useful. This study was conducted to evaluate the clinical performance of the Wondfo influenza A&B test for rapid diagnosis of influenza A H1N1 Infection. The rapid testing assay could distinguish infection of influenza A and B virus. The reference viral strains were cultured in MDCK cells while TCID50 if the viruses were determined. The analytical sensitivity of the Wondfo kit was 100 TCID50/ml. The Wondfo kit did not show cross reactivity with other common viruses. 1928 suspected cases of influenza A (H1N1 virus infection were analyzed in the Wondfo influenza A&B test and other commercially available products. Inconsistent results were further confirmed by virus isolation in cell culture. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV and negative predictive value (NPV were 100%, 98.23%, 92.45%, and 100% for flu A, and 96.39%, 99.95%, 98.77%, and 99.84% for flu B respectively. 766 suspected cases of influenza A (H1N1 virus infection were analyzed in the Wondfo influenza A&B test and RT-PCR. The sensitivity, specificity, PPV and NPV were 56.5%, 99.75%, 99.52% and 71.04% for flu A, 25.45%, 99.86%, 93.33% and 94.54% for flu B respectively. These results indicate that the Wondfo influenza A&B test has high positive and negative detection rates. One hundred fifty-six specimens of influenza A (H1N1 confirmed by RT-PCR were analyzed by the Wondfo influenza A&B test and 66.67% were positive while only 18.59% were positive by the reference kit. These results indicate that our rapid diagnostic assay may be useful for analyzing influenza A H1N1 infections in patient specimen.

  15. New treatments for influenza

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Barik Sailen

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Influenza has a long history of causing morbidity and mortality in the human population through routine seasonal spread and global pandemics. The high mutation rate of the RNA genome of the influenza virus, combined with assortment of its multiple genomic segments, promote antigenic diversity and new subtypes, allowing the virus to evade vaccines and become resistant to antiviral drugs. There is thus a continuing need for new anti-influenza therapy using novel targets and creative strategies. In this review, we summarize prospective future therapeutic regimens based on recent molecular and genomic discoveries.

  16. New treatments for influenza.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barik, Sailen

    2012-09-13

    Influenza has a long history of causing morbidity and mortality in the human population through routine seasonal spread and global pandemics. The high mutation rate of the RNA genome of the influenza virus, combined with assortment of its multiple genomic segments, promote antigenic diversity and new subtypes, allowing the virus to evade vaccines and become resistant to antiviral drugs. There is thus a continuing need for new anti-influenza therapy using novel targets and creative strategies. In this review, we summarize prospective future therapeutic regimens based on recent molecular and genomic discoveries.

  17. Introduction of a Novel Swine-Origin Influenza A (H1N1 Virus into Milwaukee, Wisconsin in 2009

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Swati Kumar

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available On 17 April 2009, novel swine origin influenza A virus (S-OIV cases appeared within the United States. Most influenza A diagnostic assays currently utilized in local clinical laboratories do not allow definitive subtype determination. Detailed subtype analysis of influenza A positive samples in our laboratory allowed early confirmation of a large outbreak of S-OIV in southeastern Wisconsin (SEW. The initial case of S-OIV in SEW was detected on 28 April 2009. All influenza A samples obtained during the 16 week period prior to 28 April 2009, and the first four weeks of the subsequent epidemic were sub typed. Four different multiplex assays were employed, utilizing real time PCR and end point PCR to fully subtype human and animal influenza viral components. Specific detection of S-OIV was developed within days. Data regarding patient demographics and other concurrently circulating viruses were analyzed. During the first four weeks of the epidemic, 679 of 3726 (18.2% adults and children tested for influenza A were identified with S-OIV infection. Thirteen patients (0.34% tested positive for seasonal human subtypes of influenza A during the first two weeks and none in the subsequent 2 weeks of the epidemic. Parainfluenza viruses were the most prevalent seasonal viral agents circulating during the epidemic (of those tested, with detection rates of 12% followed by influenza B and RSV at 1.9% and 0.9% respectively. S-OIV was confirmed on day 2 of instituting subtype testing and within 4 days of report of national cases of S-OIV. Novel surge capacity diagnostic infrastructure exists in many specialty and research laboratories around the world. The capacity for broader influenza A sub typing at the local laboratory level allows timely and accurate detection of novel strains as they emerge in the community, despite the presence of other circulating viruses producing identical illness. This is likely to become increasingly important given the need for

  18. Revised estimates of influenza-associated excess mortality, United States, 1995 through 2005

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hossain Md Monir

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Excess mortality due to seasonal influenza is thought to be substantial. However, influenza may often not be recognized as cause of death. Imputation methods are therefore required to assess the public health impact of influenza. The purpose of this study was to obtain estimates of monthly excess mortality due to influenza that are based on an epidemiologically meaningful model. Methods and Results U.S. monthly all-cause mortality, 1995 through 2005, was hierarchically modeled as Poisson variable with a mean that linearly depends both on seasonal covariates and on influenza-certified mortality. It also allowed for overdispersion to account for extra variation that is not captured by the Poisson error. The coefficient associated with influenza-certified mortality was interpreted as ratio of total influenza mortality to influenza-certified mortality. Separate models were fitted for four age categories ( Conclusion Annual estimates for influenza mortality were highly variable from year to year, but they were systematically lower than previously published estimates. The excellent fit of our model with the data suggest validity of our estimates.

  19. Antiviral effect of methylated flavonol isorhamnetin against influenza.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmed Abdal Dayem

    Full Text Available Influenza is an infectious respiratory disease with frequent seasonal epidemics that causes a high rate of mortality and morbidity in humans, poultry, and animals. Influenza is a serious economic concern due to the costly countermeasures it necessitates. In this study, we compared the antiviral activities of several flavonols and other flavonoids with similar, but distinct, hydroxyl or methyl substitution patterns at the 3, 3', and 4' positions of the 15-carbon flavonoid skeleton, and found that the strongest antiviral effect was induced by isorhamnetin. Similar to quercetin and kaempferol, isorhamnetin possesses a hydroxyl group on the C ring, but it has a 3'-methyl group on the B ring that is absent in quercetin and kaempferol. Co-treatment and pre-treatment with isorhamnetin produced a strong antiviral effect against the influenza virus A/PR/08/34(H1N1. However, isorhamnetin showed the most potent antiviral potency when administered after viral exposure (post-treatment method in vitro. Isorhamnetin treatment reduced virus-induced ROS generation and blocked cytoplasmic lysosome acidification and the lipidation of microtubule associated protein1 light chain 3-B (LC3B. Oral administration of isorhamnetin in mice infected with the influenza A virus significantly decreased lung virus titer by 2 folds, increased the survival rate which ranged from 70-80%, and decreased body weight loss by 25%. In addition, isorhamnetin decreased the virus titer in ovo using embryonated chicken eggs. The structure-activity relationship (SAR of isorhamnetin could explain its strong anti-influenza virus potency; the methyl group located on the B ring of isorhamnetin may contribute to its strong antiviral potency against influenza virus in comparison with other flavonoids.

  20. Forecasting the 2013-2014 influenza season using Wikipedia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hickmann, Kyle S; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Priedhorsky, Reid; Generous, Nicholas; Hyman, James M; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y

    2015-05-01

    Infectious diseases are one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality around the world; thus, forecasting their impact is crucial for planning an effective response strategy. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), seasonal influenza affects 5% to 20% of the U.S. population and causes major economic impacts resulting from hospitalization and absenteeism. Understanding influenza dynamics and forecasting its impact is fundamental for developing prevention and mitigation strategies. We combine modern data assimilation methods with Wikipedia access logs and CDC influenza-like illness (ILI) reports to create a weekly forecast for seasonal influenza. The methods are applied to the 2013-2014 influenza season but are sufficiently general to forecast any disease outbreak, given incidence or case count data. We adjust the initialization and parametrization of a disease model and show that this allows us to determine systematic model bias. In addition, we provide a way to determine where the model diverges from observation and evaluate forecast accuracy. Wikipedia article access logs are shown to be highly correlated with historical ILI records and allow for accurate prediction of ILI data several weeks before it becomes available. The results show that prior to the peak of the flu season, our forecasting method produced 50% and 95% credible intervals for the 2013-2014 ILI observations that contained the actual observations for most weeks in the forecast. However, since our model does not account for re-infection or multiple strains of influenza, the tail of the epidemic is not predicted well after the peak of flu season has passed. PMID:25974758

  1. Forecasting the 2013-2014 influenza season using Wikipedia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kyle S Hickmann

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Infectious diseases are one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality around the world; thus, forecasting their impact is crucial for planning an effective response strategy. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC, seasonal influenza affects 5% to 20% of the U.S. population and causes major economic impacts resulting from hospitalization and absenteeism. Understanding influenza dynamics and forecasting its impact is fundamental for developing prevention and mitigation strategies. We combine modern data assimilation methods with Wikipedia access logs and CDC influenza-like illness (ILI reports to create a weekly forecast for seasonal influenza. The methods are applied to the 2013-2014 influenza season but are sufficiently general to forecast any disease outbreak, given incidence or case count data. We adjust the initialization and parametrization of a disease model and show that this allows us to determine systematic model bias. In addition, we provide a way to determine where the model diverges from observation and evaluate forecast accuracy. Wikipedia article access logs are shown to be highly correlated with historical ILI records and allow for accurate prediction of ILI data several weeks before it becomes available. The results show that prior to the peak of the flu season, our forecasting method produced 50% and 95% credible intervals for the 2013-2014 ILI observations that contained the actual observations for most weeks in the forecast. However, since our model does not account for re-infection or multiple strains of influenza, the tail of the epidemic is not predicted well after the peak of flu season has passed.

  2. Associations between Meteorological Parameters and Influenza Activity in Berlin (Germany, Ljubljana (Slovenia, Castile and Leon (Spain and Israeli Districts.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Radina P Soebiyanto

    Full Text Available Studies in the literature have indicated that the timing of seasonal influenza epidemic varies across latitude, suggesting the involvement of meteorological and environmental conditions in the transmission of influenza. In this study, we investigated the link between meteorological parameters and influenza activity in 9 sub-national areas with temperate and subtropical climates: Berlin (Germany, Ljubljana (Slovenia, Castile and León (Spain and all 6 districts in Israel.We estimated weekly influenza-associated influenza-like-illness (ILI or Acute Respiratory Infection (ARI incidence to represent influenza activity using data from each country's sentinel surveillance during 2000-2011 (Spain and 2006-2011 (all others. Meteorological data was obtained from ground stations, satellite and assimilated data. Two generalized additive models (GAM were developed, with one using specific humidity as a covariate and another using minimum temperature. Precipitation and solar radiation were included as additional covariates in both models. The models were adjusted for previous weeks' influenza activity, and were trained separately for each study location.Influenza activity was inversely associated (p<0.05 with specific humidity in all locations. Minimum temperature was inversely associated with influenza in all 3 temperate locations, but not in all subtropical locations. Inverse associations between influenza and solar radiation were found in most locations. Associations with precipitation were location-dependent and inconclusive. We used the models to estimate influenza activity a week ahead for the 2010/2011 period which was not used in training the models. With exception of Ljubljana and Israel's Haifa District, the models could closely follow the observed data especially during the start and the end of epidemic period. In these locations, correlation coefficients between the observed and estimated ranged between 0.55 to 0.91and the model

  3. 4Flu - an individual based simulation tool to study the effects of quadrivalent vaccination on seasonal influenza in Germany

    OpenAIRE

    Eichner, Martin; Schwehm, Markus; Hain, Johannes; Uphoff, Helmut; Salzberger, Bernd; Knuf, Markus; Schmidt-Ott, Ruprecht

    2014-01-01

    Background Influenza vaccines contain Influenza A and B antigens and are adjusted annually to match the characteristics of circulating viruses. In Germany, Influenza B viruses belonged to the B/Yamagata lineage, but since 2001, the antigenically distinct B/Victoria lineage has been co-circulating. Trivalent influenza vaccines (TIV) contain antigens of the two A subtypes A(H3N2) and A(H1N1), yet of only one B lineage, resulting in frequent vaccine mismatches. Since 2012, the WHO has been recom...

  4. Multiple routes transmitted epidemics on multiplex networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This letter investigates the multiple routes transmitted epidemic process on multiplex networks. We propose detailed theoretical analysis that allows us to accurately calculate the epidemic threshold and outbreak size. It is found that the epidemic can spread across the multiplex network even if all the network layers are well below their respective epidemic thresholds. Strong positive degree–degree correlation of nodes in multiplex network could lead to a much lower epidemic threshold and a relatively smaller outbreak size. However, the average similarity of neighbors from different layers of nodes has no obvious effect on the epidemic threshold and outbreak size. -- Highlights: •We studies multiple routes transmitted epidemic process on multiplex networks. •SIR model and bond percolation theory are used to analyze the epidemic processes. •We derive equations to accurately calculate the epidemic threshold and outbreak size. •ASN has no effect on the epidemic threshold and outbreak size. •Strong positive DDC leads to a lower epidemic threshold and a smaller outbreak size.

  5. Multiple routes transmitted epidemics on multiplex networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhao, Dawei [Information Security Center, State Key Laboratory of Networking and Switching Technology, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, P.O. Box 145, Beijing 100876 (China); National Engineering Laboratory for Disaster Backup and Recovery, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Beijing 100876 (China); Shandong Provincial Key Laboratory of Computer Network, Shandong Computer Science Center, Jinan 250014 (China); Li, Lixiang [Information Security Center, State Key Laboratory of Networking and Switching Technology, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, P.O. Box 145, Beijing 100876 (China); National Engineering Laboratory for Disaster Backup and Recovery, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Beijing 100876 (China); Peng, Haipeng, E-mail: penghaipeng@bupt.edu.cn [Information Security Center, State Key Laboratory of Networking and Switching Technology, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, P.O. Box 145, Beijing 100876 (China); National Engineering Laboratory for Disaster Backup and Recovery, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Beijing 100876 (China); Luo, Qun; Yang, Yixian [Information Security Center, State Key Laboratory of Networking and Switching Technology, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, P.O. Box 145, Beijing 100876 (China); National Engineering Laboratory for Disaster Backup and Recovery, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Beijing 100876 (China)

    2014-02-01

    This letter investigates the multiple routes transmitted epidemic process on multiplex networks. We propose detailed theoretical analysis that allows us to accurately calculate the epidemic threshold and outbreak size. It is found that the epidemic can spread across the multiplex network even if all the network layers are well below their respective epidemic thresholds. Strong positive degree–degree correlation of nodes in multiplex network could lead to a much lower epidemic threshold and a relatively smaller outbreak size. However, the average similarity of neighbors from different layers of nodes has no obvious effect on the epidemic threshold and outbreak size. -- Highlights: •We studies multiple routes transmitted epidemic process on multiplex networks. •SIR model and bond percolation theory are used to analyze the epidemic processes. •We derive equations to accurately calculate the epidemic threshold and outbreak size. •ASN has no effect on the epidemic threshold and outbreak size. •Strong positive DDC leads to a lower epidemic threshold and a smaller outbreak size.

  6. The feasibility of age-specific travel restrictions during influenza pandemics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lam Elson HY

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Epidemiological studies have shown that imposing travel restrictions to prevent or delay an influenza pandemic may not be feasible. To delay an epidemic substantially, an extremely high proportion of trips (~99% would have to be restricted in a homogeneously mixing population. Influenza is, however, strongly influenced by age-dependent transmission dynamics, and the effectiveness of age-specific travel restrictions, such as the selective restriction of travel by children, has yet to be examined. Methods A simple stochastic model was developed to describe the importation of infectious cases into a population and to model local chains of transmission seeded by imported cases. The probability of a local epidemic, and the time period until a major epidemic takes off, were used as outcome measures, and travel restriction policies in which children or adults were preferentially restricted were compared to age-blind restriction policies using an age-dependent next generation matrix parameterized for influenza H1N1-2009. Results Restricting children from travelling would yield greater reductions to the short-term risk of the epidemic being established locally than other policy options considered, and potentially could delay an epidemic for a few weeks. However, given a scenario with a total of 500 imported cases over a period of a few months, a substantial reduction in the probability of an epidemic in this time period is possible only if the transmission potential were low and assortativity (i.e. the proportion of contacts within-group were unrealistically high. In all other scenarios considered, age-structured travel restrictions would not prevent an epidemic and would not delay the epidemic for longer than a few weeks. Conclusions Selectively restricting children from traveling overseas during a pandemic may potentially delay its arrival for a few weeks, depending on the characteristics of the pandemic strain, but could have less

  7. Avian Influenza Viruses, Inflammation, and CD8+ T Cell Immunity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Zhongfang; Loh, Liyen; Kedzierski, Lukasz; Kedzierska, Katherine

    2016-01-01

    Avian influenza viruses (AIVs) circulate naturally in wild aquatic birds, infect domestic poultry, and are capable of causing sporadic bird-to-human transmissions. AIVs capable of infecting humans include a highly pathogenic AIV H5N1, first detected in humans in 1997, and a low pathogenic AIV H7N9, reported in humans in 2013. Both H5N1 and H7N9 cause severe influenza disease in humans, manifested by acute respiratory distress syndrome, multi-organ failure, and high mortality rates of 60% and 35%, respectively. Ongoing circulation of H5N1 and H7N9 viruses in wild birds and poultry, and their ability to infect humans emphasizes their epidemic and pandemic potential and poses a public health threat. It is, thus, imperative to understand the host immune responses to the AIVs so we can control severe influenza disease caused by H5N1 or H7N9 and rationally design new immunotherapies and vaccines. This review summarizes our current knowledge on AIV epidemiology, disease symptoms, inflammatory processes underlying the AIV infection in humans, and recent studies on universal pre-existing CD8+ T cell immunity to AIVs. Immune responses driving the host recovery from AIV infection in patients hospitalized with severe influenza disease are also discussed. PMID:26973644

  8. The Economics of Epidemic Diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dimitri, Nicola

    2015-01-01

    Epidemic, infectious, diseases affect a large number of individuals across developing as well as developed countries. With reference to some very simple diffusion models, in this paper we consider how available economic resources could be optimally allocated by health authorities to mitigate, possibly eradicate, the disease. Optimality was defined as the minimization of the long run number of infected people. The main goal of the work has been to introduce a methodology for deciding if it would be best to concentrate resources to prevent contact between individuals and with an external source, or to develop a new treatment for curing the disease, or both. The analysis suggests that this depends on the cost functions, that is the available technology, for controlling the relevant parameters underlying the epidemics as well as on the available financial resources. In the case of the recent Ebola outbreak, the suggestions of the model have been consistent with the policies adopted.

  9. The Zika epidemics and transplantation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silveira, Fernanda P; Campos, Silvia V

    2016-05-01

    In the last few months an epidemic of Zika virus (ZIKV) has affected several countries, and it continues to spread rapidly. This virus was initially thought to cause only a mild febrile illness; however, the current epidemic has shown that it is associated with serious complications. Increasing reports are linking ZIKV to devastating conditions such as microcephaly in newborns and important neurologic syndromes. Although ZIKV infection has not yet been reported in transplant recipients, it is likely that it will be reported soon because of the number of transplants performed in affected areas and global travel. We discuss the effect of ZIKV in transplantation and propose recommendations to prevent donor-derived infections. PMID:27197772

  10. Hepatocellular carcinoma and industrial epidemics

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Alain Braillon; Gérard Dubois

    2011-01-01

    Worldwide, the burden of the non viral causes of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is usually underestimated. Clearly industrial goods, tobacco, alcohol and processed foods are the agents of new epidemics in modern times which far outscore the burden of infectious agents on morbidity and mortality. Smoking, a dose-related contributing factor for HCC, receives too little attention in clinical practice. In France, tobacco, hepatitis B and C virus and alcohol are the main risk factors for HCC mortality (33%, 31% and 26%, respectively). In developing countries, where tobacco consumption is dramatically increasing, this epidemic may soon surpass hepatitis B. Obesity and diabetes are the contributing factors too. The role of industrial processed foods in the increase of the prevalence of obesity and diabetes cannot be ignored.

  11. Fluctuating epidemics on adaptive networks

    CERN Document Server

    Shaw, Leah B

    2008-01-01

    A model for epidemics on an adaptive network is considered. Nodes follow an SIRS (susceptible-infective-recovered-susceptible) pattern. Connections are rewired to break links from non-infected nodes to infected nodes and are reformed to connect to other non-infected nodes, as the nodes that are not infected try to avoid the infection. Monte Carlo simulation and numerical solution of a mean field model are employed. The introduction of rewiring affects both the network structure and the epidemic dynamics. Degree distributions are altered, and the average distance from a node to the nearest infective increases. The rewiring leads to regions of bistability where either an endemic or a disease-free steady state can exist. Fluctuations around the endemic state and the lifetime of the endemic state are considered. The fluctuations are found to exhibit power law behavior.

  12. Tackling influenza in Ghana

    OpenAIRE

    2012-01-01

    Knowing the burden of disease is just one of a number of influenza-related issues countries such as Ghana have to face. William Ampofo spoke with Ben Jones about projects aimed at combating the virus in the African region.

  13. The influenza enigma

    OpenAIRE

    2012-01-01

    Recent advances in microbiology and molecular sequencing have vastly improved our understanding of how human influenza viruses evolve and spread. But several unanswered questions continue to vex researchers. Patrick Adams reports.

  14. Vaccination against seasonal influenza

    CERN Document Server

    DG Unit

    2009-01-01

    As every year, the Medical Service is taking part in the campaign to promote vaccination against seasonal influenza. Vaccination against seasonal influenza is especially recommended for people suffering from chronic lung, cardio-vascular or kidney conditions or diabetes, for those recovering from a serious illness or surgical operation and for everyone over the age of 65. The influenza virus is transmitted by air and contact with contaminated surfaces, hence the importance of washing hands regularly with soap and / or disinfection using a hydro-alcoholic solution. From the onset of symptoms (fever> 38°, chills, cough, muscle aches and / or joint pain, fatigue) you are strongly recommended to stay at home to avoid spreading the virus. In the present context of the influenza A (H1N1) pandemic, it is important to dissociate these two illnesses and emphasise that the two viruses and the vaccines used to combat them are quite different and that protection against one will not pr...

  15. Meningitis - H. influenzae

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... antibiotics may be considered. Always use good hygiene habits, such as washing hands before and after changing a diaper, and after using the bathroom. Alternative Names H. influenzae meningitis; H. flu meningitis ...

  16. Transmission of Flu (Influenza)

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Skip Content Marketing Share this: Main Content Area Flu (Influenza) Transmission How Flu Spreads Coughing and Sneezing People with flu can ... not be shared without washing thoroughly first. The Flu Is Contagious You may be able to pass ...

  17. Haemophilus influenzae biotype VIII.

    OpenAIRE

    Sottnek, F O; Albritton, W L

    1984-01-01

    Six Haemophilus influenzae strains could not be classified as biotypes I through VII. The strains were indole, urease, and ornithine decarboxylase negative. We propose that they be classified as biotype VIII, a previously unreported biotype.

  18. Epidemic Spreading with External Agents

    OpenAIRE

    Banerjee, Siddhartha; Gopalan, Aditya; Das, Abhik Kumar; Shakkottai, Sanjay

    2012-01-01

    We study epidemic spreading processes in large networks, when the spread is assisted by a small number of external agents: infection sources with bounded spreading power, but whose movement is unrestricted vis-\\`a-vis the underlying network topology. For networks which are `spatially constrained', we show that the spread of infection can be significantly speeded up even by a few such external agents infecting randomly. Moreover, for general networks, we derive upper-bounds on the order of the...

  19. Synthesis and Anti-Influenza Activity of Pyridine, Pyridazine, and Pyrimidine C-Nucleosides as Favipiravir (T-705) Analogues.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Guangyi; Wan, Jinqiao; Hu, Yujian; Wu, Xiangyang; Prhavc, Marija; Dyatkina, Natalia; Rajwanshi, Vivek K; Smith, David B; Jekle, Andreas; Kinkade, April; Symons, Julian A; Jin, Zhinan; Deval, Jerome; Zhang, Qingling; Tam, Yuen; Chanda, Sushmita; Blatt, Lawrence; Beigelman, Leonid

    2016-05-26

    Influenza viruses are responsible for seasonal epidemics and occasional pandemics which cause significant morbidity and mortality. Despite available vaccines, only partial protection is achieved. Currently, there are two classes of widely approved anti-influenza drugs: M2 ion channel blockers and neuraminidase inhibitors. However, the worldwide spread of drug-resistant influenza strains poses an urgent need for novel antiviral drugs, particularly with a different mechanism of action. Favipiravir (T-705), a broad-spectrum antiviral agent, has shown potent anti-influenza activity in cell-based assays, and its riboside (2) triphosphate inhibited influenza polymerase. In one of our approaches to treat influenza infection, we designed, prepared, and tested a series of C-nucleoside analogues, which have an analogy to 2 and were expected to act by a similar antiviral mechanism as favipiravir. Compound 3c of this report exhibited potent inhibition of influenza virus replication in MDCK cells, and its triphosphate was a substrate of and demonstrated inhibitory activity against influenza A polymerase. Metabolites of 3c are also presented. PMID:27120583

  20. BIRD FLU (AVIAN INFLUENZA)

    OpenAIRE

    Ali ACAR; Bulent BESIRBELLIOÐLU

    2005-01-01

    Avian influenza (bird flu) is a contagious disease of animals caused by influenza A viruses. These flu viruses occur naturally among birds. Actually, humans are not infected by bird flu viruses.. However, during an outbreak of bird flu among poultry, there is a possible risk to people who have contact infect birds or surface that have been contaminated with excreations from infected birds. Symptoms of bird flu in humans have ranged from typical flu-like symptoms to eye infections, pneumonia, ...

  1. RECOMBINANT INFLUENZA VACCINES

    OpenAIRE

    Sedova, E.; Shcherbinin, D.; Migunov, A.; Smirnov, Iu; Logunov, D.; Shmarov, M.; Tsybalova, L.; Naroditskiĭ, B.; O. Kiselev; Gintsburg, A.

    2012-01-01

    This review covers the problems encountered in the construction and production of new recombinant influenza vaccines. New approaches to the development of influenza vaccines are investigated; they include reverse genetics methods, production of virus-like particles, and DNA- and viral vector-based vaccines. Such approaches as the delivery of foreign genes by DNA- and viral vector-based vaccines can preserve the native structure of antigens. Adenoviral vectors are a promising gene-delivery pla...

  2. Oscillococcinum for influenza treatment

    OpenAIRE

    Luigi Alberto Marrari; Laurence Terzan; Gilles Chaufferin

    2012-01-01

    The use of a complementary medicine approach, and specifically of the popular medicine Oscillococcinum, for the treatment of influenza-like syndromes remains controversial. This brief paper analyses the currently available literature on this homeopathic preparation and the Cochrane Collaboration’s 2006 systematic review, along with other recent studies, in order to clarify certain fundamental aspects of its use in the treatment of influenza. In the light of the reported findings, and applying...

  3. Endocytosis of influenza viruses

    OpenAIRE

    Lakadamyali, Melike; Rust, Michael J.; Zhuang, Xiaowei

    2004-01-01

    Receptor-mediated endocytosis is known to play an important role in the entry of many viruses into host cells. However, the exact internalization mechanism has, until recently, remained poorly understood for many medically important viruses, including influenza. Developments in real-time imaging of single viruses as well as the use of dominant negative mutants to selectively block specific endocytic pathways, have improved our understanding of the influenza infection process.

  4. Influenza vaccination during pregnancy.

    OpenAIRE

    Goldman, Ran D.; Koren, Gideon

    2002-01-01

    QUESTION: A 27-year-old patient of mine recently learned she is pregnant. She took the influenza vaccine offered at work when she was 7 weeks pregnant. Is her fetus at risk of malformations? ANSWER: No evidence indicates that killed influenza vaccine is teratogenic, even if given during the first trimester. Since 1996, Health Canada's Centre for Disease Control and Prevention has recommended that pregnant women in their second and third trimesters be vaccinated. This should not be interpreted...

  5. Equine influenza: An overview

    OpenAIRE

    S. P. Waghmare; S.G. Mode; A.Y. Kolte; Namrata Babhulkar; S. H. Vyavahare; Ajit Patel

    2010-01-01

    Equine influenza virus is a leading cause of respiratory disease in the horses. The disease is the OIE listed disease of equines, ponies, mules and donkeys and spreads very fast. The sporadic outbreaks of the disease have occurred all over the country. Many cases have been reported in Delhi, Meerut, Saharanpur, Jaipur, Hisar, Calcutta, Ahmedabad. Nearly all the horses at Matheran (Hill station) were infected with influenza. The disease has spread like wildfire at the stables of Royal Western ...

  6. Avian influenza – Review

    OpenAIRE

    Öner, Ahmet Faik

    2007-01-01

    Recent spread of avian influenza A H5N1 virus to poultry and wild birds has increased the threat of human infections with H5N1 virus worldwide In this review the epidemiology virolgy clinical and laboratory characteristics and management of avian influenza is described The virus has demonsrated considerable pandemic potential and is the most likely candidate of next pandemic threat For pandemic preparedness stockpiling antiviral agents and vaccination are the most important intervention measu...

  7. Networked SIS Epidemics with Awareness

    CERN Document Server

    Paarporn, Keith; Weitz, Joshua S; Shamma, Jeff S

    2016-01-01

    We study an SIS epidemic process over a static contact network where the nodes have partial information about the epidemic state. They react by limiting their interactions with their neighbors when they believe the epidemic is currently prevalent. A node's awareness is weighted by the fraction of infected neighbors in their social network, and a global broadcast of the fraction of infected nodes in the entire network. The dynamics of the benchmark (no awareness) and awareness models are described by discrete-time Markov chains, from which mean-field approximations (MFA) are derived. The states of the MFA are interpreted as the nodes' probabilities of being infected. We show a sufficient condition for existence of a "metastable", or endemic, state of the awareness model coincides with that of the benchmark model. Furthermore, we use a coupling technique to give a full stochastic comparison analysis between the two chains, which serves as a probabilistic analogue to the MFA analysis. In particular, we show that...

  8. A lattice model for influenza spreading.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonella Liccardo

    Full Text Available We construct a stochastic SIR model for influenza spreading on a D-dimensional lattice, which represents the dynamic contact network of individuals. An age distributed population is placed on the lattice and moves on it. The displacement from a site to a nearest neighbor empty site, allows individuals to change the number and identities of their contacts. The dynamics on the lattice is governed by an attractive interaction between individuals belonging to the same age-class. The parameters, which regulate the pattern dynamics, are fixed fitting the data on the age-dependent daily contact numbers, furnished by the Polymod survey. A simple SIR transmission model with a nearest neighbors interaction and some very basic adaptive mobility restrictions complete the model. The model is validated against the age-distributed Italian epidemiological data for the influenza A(H1N1 during the [Formula: see text] season, with sensible predictions for the epidemiological parameters. For an appropriate topology of the lattice, we find that, whenever the accordance between the contact patterns of the model and the Polymod data is satisfactory, there is a good agreement between the numerical and the experimental epidemiological data. This result shows how rich is the information encoded in the average contact patterns of individuals, with respect to the analysis of the epidemic spreading of an infectious disease.

  9. Estimating Within-School Contact Networks to Understand Influenza Transmission

    CERN Document Server

    Potter, Gail E; Longini, Ira M; Jr.,; Halloran, M Elizabeth

    2011-01-01

    Many epidemic models approximate social contact behavior by assuming random mixing within mixing groups (e.g., homes, schools, workplaces). The effect of more realistic social network structure on epidemic parameter estimates is an open area of exploration. We develop a statistical model to estimate the social contact network within a high school using friendship network data and a contact survey. Our model includes classroom structure and longer and more frequent contacts to friends than non-friends, based on reports in the contact survey. We perform simulation studies to explore which network structures are relevant to influenza transmission. These studies yield two key findings. First, the friendship network structure important to the transmission process can be adequately represented by a dyad-independent exponential random graph model (ERGM). This means that individual-level sampled data is sufficient to characterize the entire friendship network. Second, contact behavior was adequately represented by a ...

  10. Avian Influenza: Myth or Mass Murder?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carol Louie

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of the present article was to determine whether avian influenza (AI is capable of causing a pandemic. Using research from a variety of medical journals, books and texts, the present paper evaluates the probability of the AI virus becoming sufficiently virulent to pose a global threat. Previous influenza A pandemics from the past century are reviewed, focusing on the mortality rate and the qualities of the virus that distinguish it from other viruses. Each of the influenza A viruses reviewed were classified as pandemic because they met three key criteria: first, the viruses were highly pathogenic within the human population; second, the viruses were easily transmissible from person to person; and finally, the viruses were novel, such that a large proportion of the population was susceptible to infection. Information about the H5N1 subtype of AI has also been critically assessed. Evidence suggests that this AI subtype is both novel and highly pathogenic. The mortality rate from epidemics in Thailand in 2004 was as high as 66%. Clearly, this virus is aggressive. It causes a high death rate, proving that humans have a low immunity to the disease. To date, there has been little evidence to suggest that AI can spread among humans. There have been cases where the virus has transferred from birds to humans, in settings such as farms or open markets with live animal vending. If AI were to undergo a genetic reassortment that allowed itself to transmit easily from person to person, then a serious pandemic could ensue, resulting in high morbidity and mortality. Experts at the World Health Organization and the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention agree that AI has the potential to undergo an antigenic shift, thus triggering the next pandemic.

  11. Influenza pandemics and avian flu

    OpenAIRE

    2005-01-01

    Douglas Fleming is general practitioner in a large suburban practice in Birmingham. In this article he seeks to clarify clinical issues relating to potential pandemics of influenza, including avian influenza

  12. Influenza Prevention: Information for Travelers

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Medscape Podcasts Public Service Announcements (PSAs) Virus Images Influenza Types Seasonal Avian Swine Variant Pandemic Other Get ... this? Submit What's this? Submit Button Past Newsletters Influenza Prevention: Information for Travelers Language: English Español ...

  13. The ESPID/ESWI Joint Symposium - A strong vote for universal influenza vaccination in children in Europe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kobbe, Robin

    2015-12-01

    During this year's 33rd annual meeting in Leipzig, Germany, the European Society of Paediatric Infectious Diseases (ESPID) jointly together with the European Scientific Working group on Influenza (ESWI), organized a staged debate on the motion of universal annual immunization of children against influenza as a cost-effective health intervention in Europe. Six invited speakers, all experts in the field of influenza vaccination, who were not necessary confident with their given position of pro or contra, battled each other with short oral presentations to convince the audience to vote for or against the motion.

  14. The Severity of Pandemic H1N1 Influenza in the United States, from April to July 2009: A Bayesian Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Presanis, Anne M.; Daniela De Angelis; Angela Hagy; Carrie Reed; Steven Riley; Cooper, Ben S.; Lyn Finelli; Paul Biedrzycki; Marc Lipsitch

    2009-01-01

    Editors' Summary Background Every winter, millions of people catch influenza—a viral infection of the airways—and about half a million people die as a result. In the US alone, an average of 36,000 people are thought to die from influenza-related causes every year. These seasonal epidemics occur because small but frequent changes in the virus mean that an immune response produced one year provides only partial protection against influenza the next year. Occasionally, influenza viruses emerge t...

  15. Formation of Medical Units in Response to Epidemics in the Australian Imperial Force in Palestine 1918

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Prof. G Dennis Shanks MD

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available In the closing days of the First World War, British cavalry operations defeated the Turkish Armies in Palestine. Australian Light Horse Regiments as part of the Australian Imperial Forces (AIF were prominent in the capture of Amman, Beirut and Damascus. Epidemic infectious diseases were part of the severe desert environment faced by soldiers in the Middle East. Cholera and dysentery epidemics required reformation of medical units to emphasize mobility in an austere environment. A large epidemic of falciparum malaria coinciding with pandemic influenza shut down military operations and caused many deaths in late 1918. Three separate military medical units were formed in Egypt to address epidemic infectious diseases during mobile operations in the desert: ANZAC Field Laboratory, 5th Malaria Diagnosis Station and 7th Mobile Sanitary Section. Laboratory and preventive medicine units were critical to the military’s ability to conduct operations in the Middle East in 1918 and are likely to become vital for future missions in developing countries. As was the case in 1918, military medical units may have to be acutely restructured to control infectious disease outbreaks

  16. A cross-immunization model for the extinction of old influenza strains.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uekermann, Florian; Sneppen, Kim

    2016-01-01

    Given the frequent mutation of antigenic features, the constancy of genetic and antigenic diversity of influenza within a subtype is surprising. While the emergence of new strains and antigenic features is commonly attributed to selection by the human immune system, the mechanism that ensures the extinction of older strains remains controversial. To replicate this dynamics of replacement current models utilize mechanisms such as short-lived strain-transcending immunity, a direct competition for hosts, stochastic extinction or constrained antigenic evolution. Building on the idea of short-lived immunity we introduce a minimal model that exhibits the aforementioned dynamics of replacement. Our model relies only on competition due to an antigen specific immune-response in an unconstrained antigenic space. Furthermore the model explains the size of typical influenza epidemics as well as the tendency that new epidemics are associated with mutations of old antigens. PMID:27174658

  17. A cross-immunization model for the extinction of old influenza strains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uekermann, Florian; Sneppen, Kim

    2016-05-01

    Given the frequent mutation of antigenic features, the constancy of genetic and antigenic diversity of influenza within a subtype is surprising. While the emergence of new strains and antigenic features is commonly attributed to selection by the human immune system, the mechanism that ensures the extinction of older strains remains controversial. To replicate this dynamics of replacement current models utilize mechanisms such as short-lived strain-transcending immunity, a direct competition for hosts, stochastic extinction or constrained antigenic evolution. Building on the idea of short-lived immunity we introduce a minimal model that exhibits the aforementioned dynamics of replacement. Our model relies only on competition due to an antigen specific immune-response in an unconstrained antigenic space. Furthermore the model explains the size of typical influenza epidemics as well as the tendency that new epidemics are associated with mutations of old antigens.

  18. Avian influenza risk perception, Hong Kong

    OpenAIRE

    Fielding, Richard; Lam, Wendy W.T.; Ho, Ella Y.Y.; Lam, Tai Hing; Hedley, Anthony J.; Leung, Gabriel M

    2005-01-01

    A telephone survey of 986 Hong Kong households determined exposure and risk perception of avian influenza from live chicken sales. Householders bought 38,370,000 live chickens; 11% touched them when buying, generating 4,220,000 exposures annually; 36% (95% confidence interval [CI] 33%–39%) perceived this as risky, 9% (7%–11%) estimated >50% likelihood of resultant sickness, whereas 46% (43%–49%) said friends worried about such sickness. Recent China travel (adjusted odds ratio 0.35; CI 0.13–0...

  19. Influenza: exposing the true killer

    OpenAIRE

    Van Epps, Heather L.

    2006-01-01

    In the early 1930s, Richard Shope isolated influenza virus from infected pigs. Shope's finding was quickly followed by the isolation of the influenza virus from humans, proving that a virus—not a bacterium, as was widely believed—caused influenza.

  20. Influenza pandemic planning in Europe.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Paget, J.; Aguilera, J.F.

    2001-01-01

    The World Health Organization strongly recommends that all countries prepare in advance multidisciplinary pandemic plans to prevent and control the next influenza pandemic. We carried out a survey of influenza surveillance methods among members of the European Influenza Surveillance Schemes, EISS, w