WorldWideScience

Sample records for angle probability distributions

  1. Predicting dihedral angle probability distributions for protein coil residues from primary sequence using neural networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Helles, Glennie; Fonseca, Rasmus

    2009-01-01

    done previously, none have, to our knowledge, presented comparable results for the probability distribution of dihedral angles. Results: In this paper we develop an artificial neural network that uses an input-window of amino acids to predict a dihedral angle probability distribution for the middle...... residue in the input-window. The trained neural network shows a significant improvement (4-68%) in predicting the most probable bin (covering a 30°×30° area of the dihedral angle space) for all amino acids in the data set compared to first order statistics. An accuracy comparable to that of secondary......Predicting the three-dimensional structure of a protein from its amino acid sequence is currently one of the most challenging problems in bioinformatics. The internal structure of helices and sheets is highly recurrent and help reduce the search space significantly. However, random coil segments...

  2. Superpositions of probability distributions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jizba, Petr; Kleinert, Hagen

    2008-09-01

    Probability distributions which can be obtained from superpositions of Gaussian distributions of different variances v=σ2 play a favored role in quantum theory and financial markets. Such superpositions need not necessarily obey the Chapman-Kolmogorov semigroup relation for Markovian processes because they may introduce memory effects. We derive the general form of the smearing distributions in v which do not destroy the semigroup property. The smearing technique has two immediate applications. It permits simplifying the system of Kramers-Moyal equations for smeared and unsmeared conditional probabilities, and can be conveniently implemented in the path integral calculus. In many cases, the superposition of path integrals can be evaluated much easier than the initial path integral. Three simple examples are presented, and it is shown how the technique is extended to quantum mechanics.

  3. Scaling of misorientation angle distributions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hughes, D.A.; Chrzan, D.C.; Liu, Q.

    1998-01-01

    The measurement of misorientation angle distributions following different amounts of deformation in cold-rolled aluminum and nickel and compressed stainless steel is reported. The sealing of the dislocation cell boundary misorientation angle distributions is studied. Surprisingly, the distributio...

  4. Exact Probability Distribution versus Entropy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kerstin Andersson

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available The problem  addressed concerns the determination of the average number of successive attempts  of guessing  a word of a certain  length consisting of letters with given probabilities of occurrence. Both first- and second-order approximations  to a natural language are considered.  The guessing strategy used is guessing words in decreasing order of probability. When word and alphabet sizes are large, approximations  are necessary in order to estimate the number of guesses.  Several  kinds of approximations  are discussed demonstrating moderate requirements regarding both memory and central processing unit (CPU time. When considering realistic  sizes of alphabets and words (100, the number of guesses can be estimated  within minutes with reasonable accuracy (a few percent and may therefore constitute an alternative to, e.g., various entropy expressions.  For many probability  distributions,  the density of the logarithm of probability products is close to a normal distribution. For those cases, it is possible to derive an analytical expression for the average number of guesses. The proportion  of guesses needed on average compared to the total number  decreases almost exponentially with the word length. The leading term in an asymptotic  expansion can be used to estimate the number of guesses for large word lengths. Comparisons with analytical lower bounds and entropy expressions are also provided.

  5. The Multivariate Gaussian Probability Distribution

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ahrendt, Peter

    2005-01-01

    This technical report intends to gather information about the multivariate gaussian distribution, that was previously not (at least to my knowledge) to be found in one place and written as a reference manual. Additionally, some useful tips and tricks are collected that may be useful in practical...

  6. Bayesian optimization for computationally extensive probability distributions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tamura, Ryo; Hukushima, Koji

    2018-01-01

    An efficient method for finding a better maximizer of computationally extensive probability distributions is proposed on the basis of a Bayesian optimization technique. A key idea of the proposed method is to use extreme values of acquisition functions by Gaussian processes for the next training phase, which should be located near a local maximum or a global maximum of the probability distribution. Our Bayesian optimization technique is applied to the posterior distribution in the effective physical model estimation, which is a computationally extensive probability distribution. Even when the number of sampling points on the posterior distributions is fixed to be small, the Bayesian optimization provides a better maximizer of the posterior distributions in comparison to those by the random search method, the steepest descent method, or the Monte Carlo method. Furthermore, the Bayesian optimization improves the results efficiently by combining the steepest descent method and thus it is a powerful tool to search for a better maximizer of computationally extensive probability distributions.

  7. Pre-Aggregation with Probability Distributions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Timko, Igor; Dyreson, Curtis E.; Pedersen, Torben Bach

    2006-01-01

    Motivated by the increasing need to analyze complex, uncertain multidimensional data this paper proposes probabilistic OLAP queries that are computed using probability distributions rather than atomic values. The paper describes how to create probability distributions from base data, and how the ...... is motivated with a real-world case study, based on our collaboration with a leading Danish vendor of location-based services. This paper is the first to consider the approximate processing of probabilistic OLAP queries over probability distributions.......Motivated by the increasing need to analyze complex, uncertain multidimensional data this paper proposes probabilistic OLAP queries that are computed using probability distributions rather than atomic values. The paper describes how to create probability distributions from base data, and how...

  8. APPROXIMATION OF PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS IN QUEUEING MODELS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. I. Aliev

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available For probability distributions with variation coefficient, not equal to unity, mathematical dependences for approximating distributions on the basis of first two moments are derived by making use of multi exponential distributions. It is proposed to approximate distributions with coefficient of variation less than unity by using hypoexponential distribution, which makes it possible to generate random variables with coefficient of variation, taking any value in a range (0; 1, as opposed to Erlang distribution, having only discrete values of coefficient of variation.

  9. Scoring Rules for Subjective Probability Distributions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Harrison, Glenn W.; Martínez-Correa, Jimmy; Swarthout, J. Todd

    The theoretical literature has a rich characterization of scoring rules for eliciting the subjective beliefs that an individual has for continuous events, but under the restrictive assumption of risk neutrality. It is well known that risk aversion can dramatically affect the incentives to correctly...... report the true subjective probability of a binary event, even under Subjective Expected Utility. To address this one can “calibrate” inferences about true subjective probabilities from elicited subjective probabilities over binary events, recognizing the incentives that risk averse agents have...... reliably elicit most important features of the latent subjective belief distribution without undertaking calibration for risk attitudes providing one is willing to assume Subjective Expected Utility....

  10. An all-timescales rainfall probability distribution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Papalexiou, S. M.; Koutsoyiannis, D.

    2009-04-01

    The selection of a probability distribution for rainfall intensity at many different timescales simultaneously is of primary interest and importance as typically the hydraulic design strongly depends on the rainfall model choice. It is well known that the rainfall distribution may have a long tail, is highly skewed at fine timescales and tends to normality as the timescale increases. This behaviour, explained by the maximum entropy principle (and for large timescales also by the central limit theorem), indicates that the construction of a "universal" probability distribution, capable to adequately describe the rainfall in all timescales, is a difficult task. A search in hydrological literature confirms this argument, as many different distributions have been proposed as appropriate models for different timescales or even for the same timescale, such as Normal, Skew-Normal, two- and three-parameter Log-Normal, Log-Normal mixtures, Generalized Logistic, Pearson Type III, Log-Pearson Type III, Wakeby, Generalized Pareto, Weibull, three- and four-parameter Kappa distribution, and many more. Here we study a single flexible four-parameter distribution for rainfall intensity (the JH distribution) and derive its basic statistics. This distribution incorporates as special cases many other well known distributions, and is capable of describing rainfall in a great range of timescales. Furthermore, we demonstrate the excellent fitting performance of the distribution in various rainfall samples from different areas and for timescales varying from sub-hourly to annual.

  11. Sampling probability distributions of lesions in mammograms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Looney, P.; Warren, L. M.; Dance, D. R.; Young, K. C.

    2015-03-01

    One approach to image perception studies in mammography using virtual clinical trials involves the insertion of simulated lesions into normal mammograms. To facilitate this, a method has been developed that allows for sampling of lesion positions across the cranio-caudal and medio-lateral radiographic projections in accordance with measured distributions of real lesion locations. 6825 mammograms from our mammography image database were segmented to find the breast outline. The outlines were averaged and smoothed to produce an average outline for each laterality and radiographic projection. Lesions in 3304 mammograms with malignant findings were mapped on to a standardised breast image corresponding to the average breast outline using piecewise affine transforms. A four dimensional probability distribution function was found from the lesion locations in the cranio-caudal and medio-lateral radiographic projections for calcification and noncalcification lesions. Lesion locations sampled from this probability distribution function were mapped on to individual mammograms using a piecewise affine transform which transforms the average outline to the outline of the breast in the mammogram. The four dimensional probability distribution function was validated by comparing it to the two dimensional distributions found by considering each radiographic projection and laterality independently. The correlation of the location of the lesions sampled from the four dimensional probability distribution function across radiographic projections was shown to match the correlation of the locations of the original mapped lesion locations. The current system has been implemented as a web-service on a server using the Python Django framework. The server performs the sampling, performs the mapping and returns the results in a javascript object notation format.

  12. Kernel density estimation applied to bond length, bond angle, and torsion angle distributions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCabe, Patrick; Korb, Oliver; Cole, Jason

    2014-05-27

    We describe the method of kernel density estimation (KDE) and apply it to molecular structure data. KDE is a quite general nonparametric statistical method suitable even for multimodal data. The method generates smooth probability density function (PDF) representations and finds application in diverse fields such as signal processing and econometrics. KDE appears to have been under-utilized as a method in molecular geometry analysis, chemo-informatics, and molecular structure optimization. The resulting probability densities have advantages over histograms and, importantly, are also suitable for gradient-based optimization. To illustrate KDE, we describe its application to chemical bond length, bond valence angle, and torsion angle distributions and show the ability of the method to model arbitrary torsion angle distributions.

  13. Calculating Cumulative Binomial-Distribution Probabilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scheuer, Ernest M.; Bowerman, Paul N.

    1989-01-01

    Cumulative-binomial computer program, CUMBIN, one of set of three programs, calculates cumulative binomial probability distributions for arbitrary inputs. CUMBIN, NEWTONP (NPO-17556), and CROSSER (NPO-17557), used independently of one another. Reliabilities and availabilities of k-out-of-n systems analyzed. Used by statisticians and users of statistical procedures, test planners, designers, and numerical analysts. Used for calculations of reliability and availability. Program written in C.

  14. Constraints on probability distributions of grammatical forms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kostić Aleksandar

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available In this study we investigate the constraints on probability distribution of grammatical forms within morphological paradigms of Serbian language, where paradigm is specified as a coherent set of elements with defined criteria for inclusion. Thus, for example, in Serbian all feminine nouns that end with the suffix "a" in their nominative singular form belong to the third declension, the declension being a paradigm. The notion of a paradigm could be extended to other criteria as well, hence, we can think of noun cases, irrespective of grammatical number and gender, or noun gender, irrespective of case and grammatical number, also as paradigms. We took the relative entropy as a measure of homogeneity of probability distribution within paradigms. The analysis was performed on 116 morphological paradigms of typical Serbian and for each paradigm the relative entropy has been calculated. The obtained results indicate that for most paradigms the relative entropy values fall within a range of 0.75 - 0.9. Nonhomogeneous distribution of relative entropy values allows for estimating the relative entropy of the morphological system as a whole. This value is 0.69 and can tentatively be taken as an index of stability of the morphological system.

  15. Pre-aggregation for Probability Distributions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Timko, Igor; Dyreson, Curtis E.; Pedersen, Torben Bach

    computations of aggregate values. The paper also reports on the experiments with the methods. The work is motivated with a real-world case study, based on our collaboration with a leading Danish vendor of location-based services. No previous work considers the combination of the aspects of uncertain......Motivated by the increasing need to analyze complex uncertain multidimensional data (e.g., in order to optimize and personalize location-based services), this paper proposes novel types of {\\em probabilistic} OLAP queries that operate on aggregate values that are probability distributions...

  16. Parametric probability distributions for anomalous change detection

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Theiler, James P [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Foy, Bernard R [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Wohlberg, Brendt E [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Scovel, James C [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2010-01-01

    The problem of anomalous change detection arises when two (or possibly more) images are taken of the same scene, but at different times. The aim is to discount the 'pervasive differences' that occur thoughout the imagery, due to the inevitably different conditions under which the images were taken (caused, for instance, by differences in illumination, atmospheric conditions, sensor calibration, or misregistration), and to focus instead on the 'anomalous changes' that actually take place in the scene. In general, anomalous change detection algorithms attempt to model these normal or pervasive differences, based on data taken directly from the imagery, and then identify as anomalous those pixels for which the model does not hold. For many algorithms, these models are expressed in terms of probability distributions, and there is a class of such algorithms that assume the distributions are Gaussian. By considering a broader class of distributions, however, a new class of anomalous change detection algorithms can be developed. We consider several parametric families of such distributions, derive the associated change detection algorithms, and compare the performance with standard algorithms that are based on Gaussian distributions. We find that it is often possible to significantly outperform these standard algorithms, even using relatively simple non-Gaussian models.

  17. Probability Distribution for Flowing Interval Spacing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kuzio, S.

    2001-01-01

    The purpose of this analysis is to develop a probability distribution for flowing interval spacing. A flowing interval is defined as a fractured zone that transmits flow in the Saturated Zone (SZ), as identified through borehole flow meter surveys (Figure 1). This analysis uses the term ''flowing interval spacing'' as opposed to fractured spacing, which is typically used in the literature. The term fracture spacing was not used in this analysis because the data used identify a zone (or a flowing interval) that contains fluid-conducting fractures but does not distinguish how many or which fractures comprise the flowing interval. The flowing interval spacing is measured between the midpoints of each flowing interval. Fracture spacing within the SZ is defined as the spacing between fractures, with no regard to which fractures are carrying flow. The Development Plan associated with this analysis is entitled, ''Probability Distribution for Flowing Interval Spacing'', (CRWMS M and O 2000a). The parameter from this analysis may be used in the TSPA SR/LA Saturated Zone Flow and Transport Work Direction and Planning Documents: (1) ''Abstraction of Matrix Diffusion for SZ Flow and Transport Analyses'' (CRWMS M and O 1999a) and (2) ''Incorporation of Heterogeneity in SZ Flow and Transport Analyses'', (CRWMS M and O 1999b). A limitation of this analysis is that the probability distribution of flowing interval spacing may underestimate the effect of incorporating matrix diffusion processes in the SZ transport model because of the possible overestimation of the flowing interval spacing. Larger flowing interval spacing results in a decrease in the matrix diffusion processes. This analysis may overestimate the flowing interval spacing because the number of fractures that contribute to a flowing interval cannot be determined from the data. Because each flowing interval probably has more than one fracture contributing to a flowing interval, the true flowing interval spacing could be

  18. Stochastic self-propagating star formation with anisotropic probability distribution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jungwiert, B.; Palous, J.

    1994-07-01

    We present a 2D computer code for stochastic self-propagating star formation (SSPSF) in differentially rotating galaxies. The isotropic probability distribution, used in previous models of Seiden, Gerola and Schulman (Seiden & Schulman, 1990, and references therein), is replaced by an anisotropic one. The motivation is provided by models of expanding large-scale supernova remnants (SNR) in disks with shear (Palous et al. 1990): the distortion of the SNR leads to uneven density distribution along its periphery and, consequently, to uneven distribution of new star forming sites. To model anisotropic SSPSF, we process in two steps: first, we eliminate artificial anisotropies inherent to the technique used by Seiden, Gerola and Schulman and, second, we define the probability ellipse on each star forming site. The anisotropy is characterized by its axes ratio and inclination with respect to the galactic center. We show that anisotropic SSPSF is able to produce highly organized spiral structures. Depending on the character of the probability ellipse, we can obtain continous spiral arms of different length, thickness and pitch angle. The relation of the probability ellipse to rotation curves interstellar medium (ISM) density and metallicity is discussed as well as its variation along the Hubble sequence and van den Bergh's luminosity classification of galaxies. To demonstrate applications, we compare our results with two different classes of galaxies: M 101-type grand-design spirals with open and robust arms and NGC 2841-type flocculent galaxies with thin and tightly wound arms.

  19. The Probability Distribution for a Biased Spinner

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foster, Colin

    2012-01-01

    This article advocates biased spinners as an engaging context for statistics students. Calculating the probability of a biased spinner landing on a particular side makes valuable connections between probability and other areas of mathematics. (Contains 2 figures and 1 table.)

  20. Probability evolution method for exit location distribution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Jinjie; Chen, Zhen; Liu, Xianbin

    2018-03-01

    The exit problem in the framework of the large deviation theory has been a hot topic in the past few decades. The most probable escape path in the weak-noise limit has been clarified by the Freidlin-Wentzell action functional. However, noise in real physical systems cannot be arbitrarily small while noise with finite strength may induce nontrivial phenomena, such as noise-induced shift and noise-induced saddle-point avoidance. Traditional Monte Carlo simulation of noise-induced escape will take exponentially large time as noise approaches zero. The majority of the time is wasted on the uninteresting wandering around the attractors. In this paper, a new method is proposed to decrease the escape simulation time by an exponentially large factor by introducing a series of interfaces and by applying the reinjection on them. This method can be used to calculate the exit location distribution. It is verified by examining two classical examples and is compared with theoretical predictions. The results show that the method performs well for weak noise while may induce certain deviations for large noise. Finally, some possible ways to improve our method are discussed.

  1. Probability Distribution for Flowing Interval Spacing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    S. Kuzio

    2004-01-01

    Fracture spacing is a key hydrologic parameter in analyses of matrix diffusion. Although the individual fractures that transmit flow in the saturated zone (SZ) cannot be identified directly, it is possible to determine the fractured zones that transmit flow from flow meter survey observations. The fractured zones that transmit flow as identified through borehole flow meter surveys have been defined in this report as flowing intervals. The flowing interval spacing is measured between the midpoints of each flowing interval. The determination of flowing interval spacing is important because the flowing interval spacing parameter is a key hydrologic parameter in SZ transport modeling, which impacts the extent of matrix diffusion in the SZ volcanic matrix. The output of this report is input to the ''Saturated Zone Flow and Transport Model Abstraction'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 170042]). Specifically, the analysis of data and development of a data distribution reported herein is used to develop the uncertainty distribution for the flowing interval spacing parameter for the SZ transport abstraction model. Figure 1-1 shows the relationship of this report to other model reports that also pertain to flow and transport in the SZ. Figure 1-1 also shows the flow of key information among the SZ reports. It should be noted that Figure 1-1 does not contain a complete representation of the data and parameter inputs and outputs of all SZ reports, nor does it show inputs external to this suite of SZ reports. Use of the developed flowing interval spacing probability distribution is subject to the limitations of the assumptions discussed in Sections 5 and 6 of this analysis report. The number of fractures in a flowing interval is not known. Therefore, the flowing intervals are assumed to be composed of one flowing zone in the transport simulations. This analysis may overestimate the flowing interval spacing because the number of fractures that contribute to a flowing interval cannot be

  2. The probability distribution of extreme precipitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Korolev, V. Yu.; Gorshenin, A. K.

    2017-12-01

    On the basis of the negative binomial distribution of the duration of wet periods calculated per day, an asymptotic model is proposed for distributing the maximum daily rainfall volume during the wet period, having the form of a mixture of Frechet distributions and coinciding with the distribution of the positive degree of a random variable having the Fisher-Snedecor distribution. The method of proving the corresponding result is based on limit theorems for extreme order statistics in samples of a random volume with a mixed Poisson distribution. The adequacy of the models proposed and methods of their statistical analysis is demonstrated by the example of estimating the extreme distribution parameters based on real data.

  3. Matrix-exponential distributions in applied probability

    CERN Document Server

    Bladt, Mogens

    2017-01-01

    This book contains an in-depth treatment of matrix-exponential (ME) distributions and their sub-class of phase-type (PH) distributions. Loosely speaking, an ME distribution is obtained through replacing the intensity parameter in an exponential distribution by a matrix. The ME distributions can also be identified as the class of non-negative distributions with rational Laplace transforms. If the matrix has the structure of a sub-intensity matrix for a Markov jump process we obtain a PH distribution which allows for nice probabilistic interpretations facilitating the derivation of exact solutions and closed form formulas. The full potential of ME and PH unfolds in their use in stochastic modelling. Several chapters on generic applications, like renewal theory, random walks and regenerative processes, are included together with some specific examples from queueing theory and insurance risk. We emphasize our intention towards applications by including an extensive treatment on statistical methods for PH distribu...

  4. Eliciting Subjective Probability Distributions on Continuous Variables

    Science.gov (United States)

    1975-08-01

    STATEMENT (3l Ihl» Riporl) Approved for Public Release; Distribiition Unlimited vT u.VH SUTiON STATEMENT (ol in, motif el oofnd In Block 20, II...Adjusting Proper Scoring Rule Fractile Subjective Probability Uncertainty Measures ZO. ABSTRACT (Conllnuo an r«v*r*« oido H nocoomtry and

  5. ADVANCES IN DISTRIBUTED OPTIMIZATION USING PROBABILITY COLLECTIVES

    OpenAIRE

    DAVID H. WOLPERT; CHARLIE E. M. STRAUSS; DEV RAJNARAYAN

    2006-01-01

    Recent work has shown how information theory extends conventional full-rationality game theory to allow bounded rational agents. The associated mathematical framework can be used to solve distributed optimization and control problems. This is done by translating the distributed problem into an iterated game, where each agent's mixed strategy (i.e. its stochastically determined move) sets a different variable of the problem. So the expected value of the objective function of the distributed pr...

  6. Probability distribution of machining center failures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jia Yazhou; Wang Molin; Jia Zhixin

    1995-01-01

    Through field tracing research for 24 Chinese cutter-changeable CNC machine tools (machining centers) over a period of one year, a database of operation and maintenance for machining centers was built, the failure data was fitted to the Weibull distribution and the exponential distribution, the effectiveness was tested, and the failure distribution pattern of machining centers was found. Finally, the reliability characterizations for machining centers are proposed

  7. Probability distribution of flood flows in Tunisia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abida, H.; Ellouze, M.

    2008-05-01

    L (Linear) moments are used in identifying regional flood frequency distributions for different zones Tunisia wide. 1134 site-years of annual maximum stream flow data from a total of 42 stations with an average record length of 27 years are considered. The country is divided into two homogeneous regions (northern and central/southern Tunisia) using a heterogeneity measure, based on the spread of the sample L-moments among the sites in a given region. Then, selection of the corresponding distribution is achieved through goodness-of-fit comparisons in L-moment diagrams and verified using an L moment based regional test that compares observed to theoretical values of L-skewness and L-kurtosis for various candidate distributions. The distributions used, which represent five of the most frequently used distributions in the analysis of hydrologic extreme variables are: (i) Generalized Extreme Value (GEV), (ii) Pearson Type III (P3), (iii) Generalized Logistic (GLO), (iv) Generalized Normal (GN), and (v) Generalized Pareto (GPA) distributions. Spatial trends, with respect to the best-fit flood frequency distribution, are distinguished: Northern Tunisia was shown to be represented by the GNO distribution while the GNO and GEV distributions give the best fit in central/southern Tunisia.

  8. Foundations of quantization for probability distributions

    CERN Document Server

    Graf, Siegfried

    2000-01-01

    Due to the rapidly increasing need for methods of data compression, quantization has become a flourishing field in signal and image processing and information theory. The same techniques are also used in statistics (cluster analysis), pattern recognition, and operations research (optimal location of service centers). The book gives the first mathematically rigorous account of the fundamental theory underlying these applications. The emphasis is on the asymptotics of quantization errors for absolutely continuous and special classes of singular probabilities (surface measures, self-similar measures) presenting some new results for the first time. Written for researchers and graduate students in probability theory the monograph is of potential interest to all people working in the disciplines mentioned above.

  9. Probability distribution and entropy as a measure of uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Qiuping A

    2008-01-01

    The relationship between three probability distributions and their maximizable entropy forms is discussed without postulating entropy property. For this purpose, the entropy I is defined as a measure of uncertainty of the probability distribution of a random variable x by a variational relationship dI = d x-bar - dx-bar, a definition underlying the maximization of entropy for corresponding distribution

  10. Comparative Descriptive Statistics of Skewed Probability Distributions

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Fewell, M

    2004-01-01

    ...). Increasingly, OA studies involve simulations of varying levels of sophistication. A feature of all simulations is the use of random variables, and this immediately raises the question of what distribution to employ...

  11. Survival probability in small angle scattering of low energy alkali ions from alkali covered metal surfaces

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Neskovic, N.; Ciric, D.; Perovic, B.

    1982-01-01

    The survival probability in small angle scattering of low energy alkali ions from alkali covered metal surfaces is considered. The model is based on the momentum approximation. The projectiles are K + ions and the target is the (001)Ni+K surface. The incident energy is 100 eV and the incident angle 5 0 . The interaction potential of the projectile and the target consists of the Born-Mayer, the dipole and the image charge potentials. The transition probability function corresponds to the resonant electron transition to the 4s projectile energy level. (orig.)

  12. Scoring Rules for Subjective Probability Distributions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Harrison, Glenn W.; Martínez-Correa, Jimmy; Swarthout, J. Todd

    2017-01-01

    provide experimental evidence which corroborates our theoretical results. We conclude that for empirically plausible levels of risk aversion, one can reliably elicit most important features of the latent subjective belief distribution without undertaking calibration for risk attitudes providing one......Subjective beliefs are elicited routinely in economics experiments. However, such elicitation often suffers from two possible disadvantages. First, beliefs are recovered in the form of a summary statistic, usually the mean, of the underlying latent distribution. Second, recovered beliefs are biased...... significantly due to risk aversion. We characterize an approach for eliciting the entire subjective belief distribution that is minimally biased due to risk aversion. We offer simulated examples to demonstrate the intuition of our approach. We also provide theory to formally characterize our framework. And we...

  13. Most probable degree distribution at fixed structural entropy

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    - works with given degree sequence. Here we derive the most probable degree distribution emerging when we distribute stubs (or half-edges) randomly through the nodes of the net- work by keeping fixed the structural entropy. This degree ...

  14. Midcourse Guidance Law Based on High Target Acquisition Probability Considering Angular Constraint and Line-of-Sight Angle Rate Control

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiao Liu

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Random disturbance factors would lead to the variation of target acquisition point during the long distance flight. To acquire a high target acquisition probability and improve the impact precision, missiles should be guided to an appropriate target acquisition position with certain attitude angles and line-of-sight (LOS angle rate. This paper has presented a new midcourse guidance law considering the influences of random disturbances, detection distance restraint, and target acquisition probability with Monte Carlo simulation. Detailed analyses of the impact points on the ground and the random distribution of the target acquisition position in the 3D space are given to get the appropriate attitude angles and the end position for the midcourse guidance. Then, a new formulation biased proportional navigation (BPN guidance law with angular constraint and LOS angle rate control has been derived to ensure the tracking ability when attacking the maneuvering target. Numerical simulations demonstrates that, compared with the proportional navigation guidance (PNG law and the near-optimal spatial midcourse guidance (NSMG law, BPN guidance law demonstrates satisfactory performances and can meet both the midcourse terminal angular constraint and the LOS angle rate requirement.

  15. Incorporating Skew into RMS Surface Roughness Probability Distribution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stahl, Mark T.; Stahl, H. Philip.

    2013-01-01

    The standard treatment of RMS surface roughness data is the application of a Gaussian probability distribution. This handling of surface roughness ignores the skew present in the surface and overestimates the most probable RMS of the surface, the mode. Using experimental data we confirm the Gaussian distribution overestimates the mode and application of an asymmetric distribution provides a better fit. Implementing the proposed asymmetric distribution into the optical manufacturing process would reduce the polishing time required to meet surface roughness specifications.

  16. Probability distributions in risk management operations

    CERN Document Server

    Artikis, Constantinos

    2015-01-01

    This book is about the formulations, theoretical investigations, and practical applications of new stochastic models for fundamental concepts and operations of the discipline of risk management. It also examines how these models can be useful in the descriptions, measurements, evaluations, and treatments of risks threatening various modern organizations. Moreover, the book makes clear that such stochastic models constitute very strong analytical tools which substantially facilitate strategic thinking and strategic decision making in many significant areas of risk management. In particular the incorporation of fundamental probabilistic concepts such as the sum, minimum, and maximum of a random number of continuous, positive, independent, and identically distributed random variables in the mathematical structure of stochastic models significantly supports the suitability of these models in the developments, investigations, selections, and implementations of proactive and reactive risk management operations. The...

  17. How to Read Probability Distributions as Statements about Process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steven A. Frank

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Probability distributions can be read as simple expressions of information. Each continuous probability distribution describes how information changes with magnitude. Once one learns to read a probability distribution as a measurement scale of information, opportunities arise to understand the processes that generate the commonly observed patterns. Probability expressions may be parsed into four components: the dissipation of all information, except the preservation of average values, taken over the measurement scale that relates changes in observed values to changes in information, and the transformation from the underlying scale on which information dissipates to alternative scales on which probability pattern may be expressed. Information invariances set the commonly observed measurement scales and the relations between them. In particular, a measurement scale for information is defined by its invariance to specific transformations of underlying values into measurable outputs. Essentially all common distributions can be understood within this simple framework of information invariance and measurement scale.

  18. Probability Distributome: A Web Computational Infrastructure for Exploring the Properties, Interrelations, and Applications of Probability Distributions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dinov, Ivo D; Siegrist, Kyle; Pearl, Dennis K; Kalinin, Alexandr; Christou, Nicolas

    2016-06-01

    Probability distributions are useful for modeling, simulation, analysis, and inference on varieties of natural processes and physical phenomena. There are uncountably many probability distributions. However, a few dozen families of distributions are commonly defined and are frequently used in practice for problem solving, experimental applications, and theoretical studies. In this paper, we present a new computational and graphical infrastructure, the Distributome , which facilitates the discovery, exploration and application of diverse spectra of probability distributions. The extensible Distributome infrastructure provides interfaces for (human and machine) traversal, search, and navigation of all common probability distributions. It also enables distribution modeling, applications, investigation of inter-distribution relations, as well as their analytical representations and computational utilization. The entire Distributome framework is designed and implemented as an open-source, community-built, and Internet-accessible infrastructure. It is portable, extensible and compatible with HTML5 and Web2.0 standards (http://Distributome.org). We demonstrate two types of applications of the probability Distributome resources: computational research and science education. The Distributome tools may be employed to address five complementary computational modeling applications (simulation, data-analysis and inference, model-fitting, examination of the analytical, mathematical and computational properties of specific probability distributions, and exploration of the inter-distributional relations). Many high school and college science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM) courses may be enriched by the use of modern pedagogical approaches and technology-enhanced methods. The Distributome resources provide enhancements for blended STEM education by improving student motivation, augmenting the classical curriculum with interactive webapps, and overhauling the

  19. Information-theoretic methods for estimating of complicated probability distributions

    CERN Document Server

    Zong, Zhi

    2006-01-01

    Mixing up various disciplines frequently produces something that are profound and far-reaching. Cybernetics is such an often-quoted example. Mix of information theory, statistics and computing technology proves to be very useful, which leads to the recent development of information-theory based methods for estimating complicated probability distributions. Estimating probability distribution of a random variable is the fundamental task for quite some fields besides statistics, such as reliability, probabilistic risk analysis (PSA), machine learning, pattern recognization, image processing, neur

  20. Multiobjective fuzzy stochastic linear programming problems with inexact probability distribution

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hamadameen, Abdulqader Othman [Optimization, Department of Mathematical Sciences, Faculty of Science, UTM (Malaysia); Zainuddin, Zaitul Marlizawati [Department of Mathematical Sciences, Faculty of Science, UTM (Malaysia)

    2014-06-19

    This study deals with multiobjective fuzzy stochastic linear programming problems with uncertainty probability distribution which are defined as fuzzy assertions by ambiguous experts. The problem formulation has been presented and the two solutions strategies are; the fuzzy transformation via ranking function and the stochastic transformation when α{sup –}. cut technique and linguistic hedges are used in the uncertainty probability distribution. The development of Sen’s method is employed to find a compromise solution, supported by illustrative numerical example.

  1. Fitness Probability Distribution of Bit-Flip Mutation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chicano, Francisco; Sutton, Andrew M; Whitley, L Darrell; Alba, Enrique

    2015-01-01

    Bit-flip mutation is a common mutation operator for evolutionary algorithms applied to optimize functions over binary strings. In this paper, we develop results from the theory of landscapes and Krawtchouk polynomials to exactly compute the probability distribution of fitness values of a binary string undergoing uniform bit-flip mutation. We prove that this probability distribution can be expressed as a polynomial in p, the probability of flipping each bit. We analyze these polynomials and provide closed-form expressions for an easy linear problem (Onemax), and an NP-hard problem, MAX-SAT. We also discuss a connection of the results with runtime analysis.

  2. Some explicit expressions for the probability distribution of force ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Some explicit expressions for the probability distribution of force magnitude. SARALEES NADARAJAH. School of Mathematics, University of Manchester, ... Radeke et al (2004) has the joint post distribution force (pdf) given by ..... Goddard J D 2004 On entropy estimates of contact forces in static granular assemblies.

  3. Optimal design of unit hydrographs using probability distribution and ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    R. Narasimhan (Krishtel eMaging) 1461 1996 Oct 15 13:05:22

    Keywords. Unit hydrograph; rainfall-runoff; hydrology; genetic algorithms; optimization; probability distribution. 1. Introduction. One of the most common interests of hydrologists is the estimation of direct runoff from a watershed for specified distribution of rainfall. This can be achieved either by a system or a physical approach ...

  4. Some explicit expressions for the probability distribution of force ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Recently, empirical investigations have suggested that the components of contact forces follow the exponential distribution. However, explicit expressions for the probability distribution of the corresponding force magnitude have not been known and only approximations have been used in the literature. In this note, for the ...

  5. Measuring Robustness of Timetables at Stations using a Probability Distribution

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Lars Wittrup; Landex, Alex

    infrastructure layouts given a timetable. These two methods provide different precision at the expense of a more complex calculation process. The advanced and more precise method is based on a probability distribution that can describe the expected delay between two trains as a function of the buffer time....... This paper proposes to use the exponential distribution, only taking non-negative delays into account, but any probability distribution can be used. Furthermore, the paper proposes that the calculation parameters are estimated from existing delay data, at a station, to achieve a higher precision. As delay...

  6. Contact angle distribution of particles at fluid interfaces.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Snoeyink, Craig; Barman, Sourav; Christopher, Gordon F

    2015-01-27

    Recent measurements have implied a distribution of interfacially adsorbed particles' contact angles; however, it has been impossible to measure statistically significant numbers for these contact angles noninvasively in situ. Using a new microscopy method that allows nanometer-scale resolution of particle's 3D positions on an interface, we have measured the contact angles for thousands of latex particles at an oil/water interface. Furthermore, these measurements are dynamic, allowing the observation of the particle contact angle with high temporal resolution, resulting in hundreds of thousands of individual contact angle measurements. The contact angle has been found to fit a normal distribution with a standard deviation of 19.3°, which is much larger than previously recorded. Furthermore, the technique used allows the effect of measurement error, constrained interfacial diffusion, and particle property variation on the contact angle distribution to be individually evaluated. Because of the ability to measure the contact angle noninvasively, the results provide previously unobtainable, unique data on the dynamics and distribution of the adsorbed particles' contact angle.

  7. Probability distributions with truncated, log and bivariate extensions

    CERN Document Server

    Thomopoulos, Nick T

    2018-01-01

    This volume presents a concise and practical overview of statistical methods and tables not readily available in other publications. It begins with a review of the commonly used continuous and discrete probability distributions. Several useful distributions that are not so common and less understood are described with examples and applications in full detail: discrete normal, left-partial, right-partial, left-truncated normal, right-truncated normal, lognormal, bivariate normal, and bivariate lognormal. Table values are provided with examples that enable researchers to easily apply the distributions to real applications and sample data. The left- and right-truncated normal distributions offer a wide variety of shapes in contrast to the symmetrically shaped normal distribution, and a newly developed spread ratio enables analysts to determine which of the three distributions best fits a particular set of sample data. The book will be highly useful to anyone who does statistical and probability analysis. This in...

  8. Probability, conditional probability and complementary cumulative distribution functions in performance assessment for radioactive waste disposal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Helton, J.C.

    1996-01-01

    A formal description of the structure of several recent performance assessments (PAs) for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) is given in terms of the following three components: a probability space (S st , L st , P st ) for stochastic uncertainty, a probability space (S su , L su , P su ) for subjective uncertainty and a function (i.e., a random variable) defined on the product space associated with (S st , L st , P st ) and (S su , L su , P su ). The explicit recognition of the existence of these three components allows a careful description of the use of probability, conditional probability and complementary cumulative distribution functions within the WIPP PA. This usage is illustrated in the context of the US Environmental Protection Agency's standard for the geologic disposal of radioactive waste (40 CFR 191, Subpart B). The paradigm described in this presentation can also be used to impose a logically consistent structure on PAs for other complex systems

  9. Evidence for Truncated Exponential Probability Distribution of Earthquake Slip

    KAUST Repository

    Thingbaijam, Kiran K. S.

    2016-07-13

    Earthquake ruptures comprise spatially varying slip on the fault surface, where slip represents the displacement discontinuity between the two sides of the rupture plane. In this study, we analyze the probability distribution of coseismic slip, which provides important information to better understand earthquake source physics. Although the probability distribution of slip is crucial for generating realistic rupture scenarios for simulation-based seismic and tsunami-hazard analysis, the statistical properties of earthquake slip have received limited attention so far. Here, we use the online database of earthquake source models (SRCMOD) to show that the probability distribution of slip follows the truncated exponential law. This law agrees with rupture-specific physical constraints limiting the maximum possible slip on the fault, similar to physical constraints on maximum earthquake magnitudes.We show the parameters of the best-fitting truncated exponential distribution scale with average coseismic slip. This scaling property reflects the control of the underlying stress distribution and fault strength on the rupture dimensions, which determines the average slip. Thus, the scale-dependent behavior of slip heterogeneity is captured by the probability distribution of slip. We conclude that the truncated exponential law accurately quantifies coseismic slip distribution and therefore allows for more realistic modeling of rupture scenarios. © 2016, Seismological Society of America. All rights reserverd.

  10. Effects of Compound K-Distributed Sea Clutter on Angle Measurement of Wideband Monopulse Radar

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hong Zhu

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The effects of compound K-distributed sea clutter on angle measurement of wideband monopulse radar are investigated in this paper. We apply the conditional probability density function (pdf of monopulse ratio (MR error to analyze these effects. Based on the angle measurement procedure of the wideband monopulse radar, this conditional pdf is first deduced in detail for the case of compound K-distributed sea clutter plus noise. Herein, the spatial correlation of the texture components for each channel clutter and the correlation of the texture components between the sum and difference channel clutters are considered, and two extreme situations for each of them are tackled. Referring to the measured sea clutter data, angle measurement performances in various K-distributed sea clutter plus noise circumstances are simulated, and the effects of compound K-distributed sea clutter on angle measurement are discussed.

  11. Comparative analysis through probability distributions of a data set

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cristea, Gabriel; Constantinescu, Dan Mihai

    2018-02-01

    In practice, probability distributions are applied in such diverse fields as risk analysis, reliability engineering, chemical engineering, hydrology, image processing, physics, market research, business and economic research, customer support, medicine, sociology, demography etc. This article highlights important aspects of fitting probability distributions to data and applying the analysis results to make informed decisions. There are a number of statistical methods available which can help us to select the best fitting model. Some of the graphs display both input data and fitted distributions at the same time, as probability density and cumulative distribution. The goodness of fit tests can be used to determine whether a certain distribution is a good fit. The main used idea is to measure the "distance" between the data and the tested distribution, and compare that distance to some threshold values. Calculating the goodness of fit statistics also enables us to order the fitted distributions accordingly to how good they fit to data. This particular feature is very helpful for comparing the fitted models. The paper presents a comparison of most commonly used goodness of fit tests as: Kolmogorov-Smirnov, Anderson-Darling, and Chi-Squared. A large set of data is analyzed and conclusions are drawn by visualizing the data, comparing multiple fitted distributions and selecting the best model. These graphs should be viewed as an addition to the goodness of fit tests.

  12. Assigning probability distributions to input parameters of performance assessment models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mishra, Srikanta

    2002-02-01

    This study presents an overview of various approaches for assigning probability distributions to input parameters and/or future states of performance assessment models. Specifically,three broad approaches are discussed for developing input distributions: (a) fitting continuous distributions to data, (b) subjective assessment of probabilities, and (c) Bayesian updating of prior knowledge based on new information. The report begins with a summary of the nature of data and distributions, followed by a discussion of several common theoretical parametric models for characterizing distributions. Next, various techniques are presented for fitting continuous distributions to data. These include probability plotting, method of moments, maximum likelihood estimation and nonlinear least squares analysis. The techniques are demonstrated using data from a recent performance assessment study for the Yucca Mountain project. Goodness of fit techniques are also discussed, followed by an overview of how distribution fitting is accomplished in commercial software packages. The issue of subjective assessment of probabilities is dealt with in terms of the maximum entropy distribution selection approach, as well as some common rules for codifying informal expert judgment. Formal expert elicitation protocols are discussed next, and are based primarily on the guidance provided by the US NRC. The Bayesian framework for updating prior distributions (beliefs) when new information becomes available is discussed. A simple numerical approach is presented for facilitating practical applications of the Bayes theorem. Finally, a systematic framework for assigning distributions is presented: (a) for the situation where enough data are available to define an empirical CDF or fit a parametric model to the data, and (b) to deal with the situation where only a limited amount of information is available

  13. Assigning probability distributions to input parameters of performance assessment models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mishra, Srikanta [INTERA Inc., Austin, TX (United States)

    2002-02-01

    This study presents an overview of various approaches for assigning probability distributions to input parameters and/or future states of performance assessment models. Specifically,three broad approaches are discussed for developing input distributions: (a) fitting continuous distributions to data, (b) subjective assessment of probabilities, and (c) Bayesian updating of prior knowledge based on new information. The report begins with a summary of the nature of data and distributions, followed by a discussion of several common theoretical parametric models for characterizing distributions. Next, various techniques are presented for fitting continuous distributions to data. These include probability plotting, method of moments, maximum likelihood estimation and nonlinear least squares analysis. The techniques are demonstrated using data from a recent performance assessment study for the Yucca Mountain project. Goodness of fit techniques are also discussed, followed by an overview of how distribution fitting is accomplished in commercial software packages. The issue of subjective assessment of probabilities is dealt with in terms of the maximum entropy distribution selection approach, as well as some common rules for codifying informal expert judgment. Formal expert elicitation protocols are discussed next, and are based primarily on the guidance provided by the US NRC. The Bayesian framework for updating prior distributions (beliefs) when new information becomes available is discussed. A simple numerical approach is presented for facilitating practical applications of the Bayes theorem. Finally, a systematic framework for assigning distributions is presented: (a) for the situation where enough data are available to define an empirical CDF or fit a parametric model to the data, and (b) to deal with the situation where only a limited amount of information is available.

  14. Parametric Probability Distribution Functions for Axon Diameters of Corpus Callosum

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Farshid eSepehrband

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Axon diameter is an important neuroanatomical characteristic of the nervous system that alters in the course of neurological disorders such as multiple sclerosis. Axon diameters vary, even within a fiber bundle, and are not normally distributed. An accurate distribution function is therefore beneficial, either to describe axon diameters that are obtained from a direct measurement technique (e.g., microscopy, or to infer them indirectly (e.g., using diffusion-weighted MRI. The gamma distribution is a common choice for this purpose (particularly for the inferential approach because it resembles the distribution profile of measured axon diameters which has been consistently shown to be non-negative and right-skewed. In this study we compared a wide range of parametric probability distribution functions against empirical data obtained from electron microscopy images. We observed that the gamma distribution fails to accurately describe the main characteristics of the axon diameter distribution, such as location and scale of the mode and the profile of distribution tails. We also found that the generalized extreme value distribution consistently fitted the measured distribution better than other distribution functions. This suggests that there may be distinct subpopulations of axons in the corpus callosum, each with their own distribution profiles. In addition, we observed that several other distributions outperformed the gamma distribution, yet had the same number of unknown parameters; these were the inverse Gaussian, log normal, log logistic and Birnbaum-Saunders distributions.

  15. Modeling highway travel time distribution with conditional probability models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oliveira Neto, Francisco Moraes [ORNL; Chin, Shih-Miao [ORNL; Hwang, Ho-Ling [ORNL; Han, Lee [University of Tennessee, Knoxville (UTK)

    2014-01-01

    ABSTRACT Under the sponsorship of the Federal Highway Administration's Office of Freight Management and Operations, the American Transportation Research Institute (ATRI) has developed performance measures through the Freight Performance Measures (FPM) initiative. Under this program, travel speed information is derived from data collected using wireless based global positioning systems. These telemetric data systems are subscribed and used by trucking industry as an operations management tool. More than one telemetric operator submits their data dumps to ATRI on a regular basis. Each data transmission contains truck location, its travel time, and a clock time/date stamp. Data from the FPM program provides a unique opportunity for studying the upstream-downstream speed distributions at different locations, as well as different time of the day and day of the week. This research is focused on the stochastic nature of successive link travel speed data on the continental United States Interstates network. Specifically, a method to estimate route probability distributions of travel time is proposed. This method uses the concepts of convolution of probability distributions and bivariate, link-to-link, conditional probability to estimate the expected distributions for the route travel time. Major contribution of this study is the consideration of speed correlation between upstream and downstream contiguous Interstate segments through conditional probability. The established conditional probability distributions, between successive segments, can be used to provide travel time reliability measures. This study also suggests an adaptive method for calculating and updating route travel time distribution as new data or information is added. This methodology can be useful to estimate performance measures as required by the recent Moving Ahead for Progress in the 21st Century Act (MAP 21).

  16. Size effect on strength and lifetime probability distributions of ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Size effect on strength and lifetime probability distributions of quasibrittle structures. #. ZDEN ˇEK P BAŽANT1,∗ and JIA-LIANG LE2. 1Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Northwestern University,. 2145 Sheridan Road, CEE/A135, Evanston, Illinois 60208, USA. 2Department of Civil Engineering, University ...

  17. Quantum Fourier transform, Heisenberg groups and quasi-probability distributions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Patra, Manas K; Braunstein, Samuel L

    2011-01-01

    This paper aims to explore the inherent connection between Heisenberg groups, quantum Fourier transform (QFT) and (quasi-probability) distribution functions. Distribution functions for continuous and finite quantum systems are examined from three perspectives and all of them lead to Weyl-Gabor-Heisenberg groups. The QFT appears as the intertwining operator of two equivalent representations arising out of an automorphism of the group. Distribution functions correspond to certain distinguished sets in the group algebra. The marginal properties of a particular class of distribution functions (Wigner distributions) arise from a class of automorphisms of the group algebra of the Heisenberg group. We then study the reconstruction of the Wigner function from the marginal distributions via inverse Radon transform giving explicit formulae. We consider some applications of our approach to quantum information processing and quantum process tomography.

  18. Simulation of Daily Weather Data Using Theoretical Probability Distributions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bruhn, J. A.; Fry, W. E.; Fick, G. W.

    1980-09-01

    A computer simulation model was constructed to supply daily weather data to a plant disease management model for potato late blight. In the weather model Monte Carlo techniques were employed to generate daily values of precipitation, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, minimum relative humidity and total solar radiation. Each weather variable is described by a known theoretical probability distribution but the values of the parameters describing each distribution are dependent on the occurrence of rainfall. Precipitation occurrence is described by a first-order Markov chain. The amount of rain, given that rain has occurred, is described by a gamma probability distribution. Maximum and minimum temperature are simulated with a trivariate normal probability distribution involving maximum temperature on the previous day, maximum temperature on the current day and minimum temperature on the current day. Parameter values for this distribution are dependent on the occurrence of rain on the previous day. Both minimum relative humidity and total solar radiation are assumed to be normally distributed. The values of the parameters describing the distribution of minimum relative humidity is dependent on rainfall occurrence on the previous day and current day. Parameter values for total solar radiation are dependent on the occurrence of rain on the current day. The assumptions made during model construction were found to be appropriate for actual weather data from Geneva, New York. The performance of the weather model was evaluated by comparing the cumulative frequency distributions of simulated weather data with the distributions of actual weather data from Geneva, New York and Fort Collins, Colorado. For each location, simulated weather data were similar to actual weather data in terms of mean response, variability and autocorrelation. The possible applications of this model when used with models of other components of the agro-ecosystem are discussed.

  19. Exact probability distribution function for the volatility of cumulative production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zadourian, Rubina; Klümper, Andreas

    2018-04-01

    In this paper we study the volatility and its probability distribution function for the cumulative production based on the experience curve hypothesis. This work presents a generalization of the study of volatility in Lafond et al. (2017), which addressed the effects of normally distributed noise in the production process. Due to its wide applicability in industrial and technological activities we present here the mathematical foundation for an arbitrary distribution function of the process, which we expect will pave the future research on forecasting of the production process.

  20. Geometry of q-Exponential Family of Probability Distributions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shun-ichi Amari

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available The Gibbs distribution of statistical physics is an exponential family of probability distributions, which has a mathematical basis of duality in the form of the Legendre transformation. Recent studies of complex systems have found lots of distributions obeying the power law rather than the standard Gibbs type distributions. The Tsallis q-entropy is a typical example capturing such phenomena. We treat the q-Gibbs distribution or the q-exponential family by generalizing the exponential function to the q-family of power functions, which is useful for studying various complex or non-standard physical phenomena. We give a new mathematical structure to the q-exponential family different from those previously given. It has a dually flat geometrical structure derived from the Legendre transformation and the conformal geometry is useful for understanding it. The q-version of the maximum entropy theorem is naturally induced from the q-Pythagorean theorem. We also show that the maximizer of the q-escort distribution is a Bayesian MAP (Maximum A posteriori Probability estimator.

  1. Outage probability of distributed beamforming with co-channel interference

    KAUST Repository

    Yang, Liang

    2012-03-01

    In this letter, we consider a distributed beamforming scheme (DBF) in the presence of equal-power co-channel interferers for both amplify-and-forward and decode-and-forward relaying protocols over Rayleigh fading channels. We first derive outage probability expressions for the DBF systems. We then present a performance analysis for a scheme relying on source selection. Numerical results are finally presented to verify our analysis. © 2011 IEEE.

  2. Epi-convergence almost surely, in probability and in distribution

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Lachout, Petr

    2006-01-01

    Roč. 142, č. 1 (2006), s. 187-214 ISSN 0254-5330 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA201/03/1027 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : epi-convergence of functions * random functions * convergence almost surely * convergence in probability * convergence in distribution Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics Impact factor: 0.589, year: 2006

  3. Partial Generalized Probability Weighted Moments for Exponentiated Exponential Distribution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Neema Mohamed El Haroun

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The generalized probability weighted moments are widely used in hydrology for estimating parameters of flood distributions from complete sample. The method of partial generalized probability weighted moments was used to estimate the parameters of distributions from censored sample. This article offers new method called partial generalized probability weighted moments (PGPWMs for the analysis of censored data. The method of PGPWMs is an extended class from partial generalized probability weighted moments. To illustrate the new method, estimation of the unknown parameters from exponentiated exponential distribution based on doubly censored sample is considered. PGPWMs estimators for right and left censored samples are obtained as special cases.   Simulation study is conducted to investigate performance of estimates for exponentiated exponential distribution. Comparison between estimators is made through simulation via their biases and  mean square errors. An illustration with real data is provided. Normal 0 false false false EN-US X-NONE AR-SA /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"جدول عادي"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; mso-para-margin-top:0cm; mso-para-margin-right:0cm; mso-para-margin-bottom:10.0pt; mso-para-margin-left:0cm; line-height:115%; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:11.0pt; font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family:Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;}

  4. Estimating probable flaw distributions in PWR steam generator tubes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gorman, J.A.; Turner, A.P.L.

    1997-01-01

    This paper describes methods for estimating the number and size distributions of flaws of various types in PWR steam generator tubes. These estimates are needed when calculating the probable primary to secondary leakage through steam generator tubes under postulated accidents such as severe core accidents and steam line breaks. The paper describes methods for two types of predictions: (1) the numbers of tubes with detectable flaws of various types as a function of time, and (2) the distributions in size of these flaws. Results are provided for hypothetical severely affected, moderately affected and lightly affected units. Discussion is provided regarding uncertainties and assumptions in the data and analyses

  5. Universal Probability Distribution Function for Bursty Transport in Plasma Turbulence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sandberg, I.; Benkadda, S.; Garbet, X.; Ropokis, G.; Hizanidis, K.; Castillo-Negrete, D. del

    2009-01-01

    Bursty transport phenomena associated with convective motion present universal statistical characteristics among different physical systems. In this Letter, a stochastic univariate model and the associated probability distribution function for the description of bursty transport in plasma turbulence is presented. The proposed stochastic process recovers the universal distribution of density fluctuations observed in plasma edge of several magnetic confinement devices and the remarkable scaling between their skewness S and kurtosis K. Similar statistical characteristics of variabilities have been also observed in other physical systems that are characterized by convection such as the x-ray fluctuations emitted by the Cygnus X-1 accretion disc plasmas and the sea surface temperature fluctuations.

  6. Changes of Probability Distributions in Tsunami Heights with Fault Parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Kwan-Hyuck; Kwon, Hyun-Han; Park, Yong Sung; Cho, Yong-Sik

    2017-04-01

    This study explored the changes of the probability distribution in tsunami heights along the eastern coastline of the Korea for virtual earthquakes. The results confirmed that the changes of the probability distribution in tsunami heights depending on tsunami fault parameters was found. A statistical model was developed in order to jointly analyse tsunami heights on a variety of events by regarding the functional relationships; the parameters in a Weibull distribution with earthquake characteristics could be estimated, all within a Bayesian regression framework. The proposed model could be effective and informative for the estimation of tsunami risk from an earthquake of a given magnitude at a particular location. Definitely, the coefficient of determination between the true and estimated values for Weibull distribution parameters were over 90% for both virtual and historical tsunami. Keywords: Tsunami heights, Bayesian model, Regression analysis, Risk analysis Acknowledgements This research was supported by a grant from Study on Solitary Wave Run-up for Hazard Mitigation of Coastal Communities against Sea Level Rise Project[No. 20140437] funded by Korea Institute of Marine Science and Technology promotion.

  7. Topologically appropriate coordinates for (Vzz, η) joint probability distributions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Evenson, William E.; Adams, M.; Bunker, Austin; Hodges, Jeffery A.; Matheson, P. L.; Park, Tyler; Stufflebeam, Michael; Sullivan, Francis P.; Zacate, M. O.

    2016-01-01

    Inhomogeneous broadening (IHB) of hyperfine interactions in materials arises from a distribution of electric field gradients (EFGs) due to randomly distributed defects contributing non-uniformly to the EFG at probe sites. Hyperfine experiments reflect the inhomogeneous distribution of defects through the joint probability distribution function (PDF) of V zz and η determined by the defect concentration, crystal structure, and defect sites in the crystal. Czjzek showed how to choose coordinates in the (V zz , η) plane that are consistent with the physical constraints and ordering convention for these EFG parameters. Here we show how to transform to a new set of coordinates that decreases the distortion inherent in Czjzek’s representation. These new coordinates allow one to express the joint PDF for random distributions of defects in a form reasonably approximated by the product of two independent marginal distributions. This paper focuses on these topologically appropriate coordinates, with simple examples drawn from Czjzek’s work and from our simulations of point defects in cubic lattices as well as random amorphous distributions of defects. Detailed simulations have been carried out for IHB in cubic structures and point charge models relevant to perturbed angular correlation (PAC) experiments.

  8. Methods for fitting a parametric probability distribution to most probable number data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Michael S; Ebel, Eric D

    2012-07-02

    Every year hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of samples are collected and analyzed to assess microbial contamination in food and water. The concentration of pathogenic organisms at the end of the production process is low for most commodities, so a highly sensitive screening test is used to determine whether the organism of interest is present in a sample. In some applications, samples that test positive are subjected to quantitation. The most probable number (MPN) technique is a common method to quantify the level of contamination in a sample because it is able to provide estimates at low concentrations. This technique uses a series of dilution count experiments to derive estimates of the concentration of the microorganism of interest. An application for these data is food-safety risk assessment, where the MPN concentration estimates can be fitted to a parametric distribution to summarize the range of potential exposures to the contaminant. Many different methods (e.g., substitution methods, maximum likelihood and regression on order statistics) have been proposed to fit microbial contamination data to a distribution, but the development of these methods rarely considers how the MPN technique influences the choice of distribution function and fitting method. An often overlooked aspect when applying these methods is whether the data represent actual measurements of the average concentration of microorganism per milliliter or the data are real-valued estimates of the average concentration, as is the case with MPN data. In this study, we propose two methods for fitting MPN data to a probability distribution. The first method uses a maximum likelihood estimator that takes average concentration values as the data inputs. The second is a Bayesian latent variable method that uses the counts of the number of positive tubes at each dilution to estimate the parameters of the contamination distribution. The performance of the two fitting methods is compared for two

  9. Magnetosheath distortion of pitch angle distributions of solar protons

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Palmer, I.D.; Higbie, P.R.

    1978-01-01

    The propagation of energetic solar protons of 9 or approx. =1 MeV into the magnetosheath is investigated through three-dimensional pitch angle distributions measured on Vela satellites. Distortions are observed in the magnetosheath, as compared with isotropic or unidirectional distributions normally expected in interplanetary space. Two types of distortions are observed which are characterized by breaks in the distributions at μ/sub o/ O, where μ is the cosine of the pitch angle. The distributions in the magnetosheath are explained by a Liouville transformation, if particle motion across the bow shock and through the magnetosheath is assumed to be adiabatic. Whether μ/sub o/ is positive or negative is determined by whether the satellite in the magnetosheath lies beyond or in front of the region of maximum magnetic field compression (or neck) in the magnetosheath, relative to the direction of the net flow of particles. The magnitude of μ/sub o/ is a measure of the field ratio between neck and satellite. Scattering effects, which must occur at the bow shock and in the magnetosheath, only perturb the adiabatic propagation of the particles. The results show that one must be cautious in inferring the true interplanetary anisotropy from measurements in the magnetosheath. While the maxima and minima of the corresponding pitch angle distributions will be the same, the distributions can be vastly different, and both anisotropy and omnidirectional intensities significantly different, too. By corollary, the pitch angle distribution and anisotropy measured in the solar wind on field line that intercepts the bow shock sunward of the earth will in general be different from that which would be measured in interplanetary space on a field line not connected to the bow shock; to first order the effect of the bow shock can be computed by treating the motion as adiabatic

  10. Log-concave Probability Distributions: Theory and Statistical Testing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    An, Mark Yuing

    1996-01-01

    This paper studies the broad class of log-concave probability distributions that arise in economics of uncertainty and information. For univariate, continuous, and log-concave random variables we prove useful properties without imposing the differentiability of density functions. Discrete...... and multivariate distributions are also discussed. We propose simple non-parametric testing procedures for log-concavity. The test statistics are constructed to test one of the two implicati ons of log-concavity: increasing hazard rates and new-is-better-than-used (NBU) property. The test for increasing hazard...... rates are based on normalized spacing of the sample order statistics. The tests for NBU property fall into the category of Hoeffding's U-statistics...

  11. Characterizing single-molecule FRET dynamics with probability distribution analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santoso, Yusdi; Torella, Joseph P; Kapanidis, Achillefs N

    2010-07-12

    Probability distribution analysis (PDA) is a recently developed statistical tool for predicting the shapes of single-molecule fluorescence resonance energy transfer (smFRET) histograms, which allows the identification of single or multiple static molecular species within a single histogram. We used a generalized PDA method to predict the shapes of FRET histograms for molecules interconverting dynamically between multiple states. This method is tested on a series of model systems, including both static DNA fragments and dynamic DNA hairpins. By fitting the shape of this expected distribution to experimental data, the timescale of hairpin conformational fluctuations can be recovered, in good agreement with earlier published results obtained using different techniques. This method is also applied to studying the conformational fluctuations in the unliganded Klenow fragment (KF) of Escherichia coli DNA polymerase I, which allows both confirmation of the consistency of a simple, two-state kinetic model with the observed smFRET distribution of unliganded KF and extraction of a millisecond fluctuation timescale, in good agreement with rates reported elsewhere. We expect this method to be useful in extracting rates from processes exhibiting dynamic FRET, and in hypothesis-testing models of conformational dynamics against experimental data.

  12. Subspace Learning via Local Probability Distribution for Hyperspectral Image Classification

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huiwu Luo

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The computational procedure of hyperspectral image (HSI is extremely complex, not only due to the high dimensional information, but also due to the highly correlated data structure. The need of effective processing and analyzing of HSI has met many difficulties. It has been evidenced that dimensionality reduction has been found to be a powerful tool for high dimensional data analysis. Local Fisher’s liner discriminant analysis (LFDA is an effective method to treat HSI processing. In this paper, a novel approach, called PD-LFDA, is proposed to overcome the weakness of LFDA. PD-LFDA emphasizes the probability distribution (PD in LFDA, where the maximum distance is replaced with local variance for the construction of weight matrix and the class prior probability is applied to compute the affinity matrix. The proposed approach increases the discriminant ability of the transformed features in low dimensional space. Experimental results on Indian Pines 1992 data indicate that the proposed approach significantly outperforms the traditional alternatives.

  13. Gas Hydrate Formation Probability Distributions: The Effect of Shear and Comparisons with Nucleation Theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    May, Eric F; Lim, Vincent W; Metaxas, Peter J; Du, Jianwei; Stanwix, Paul L; Rowland, Darren; Johns, Michael L; Haandrikman, Gert; Crosby, Daniel; Aman, Zachary M

    2018-03-13

    Gas hydrate formation is a stochastic phenomenon of considerable significance for any risk-based approach to flow assurance in the oil and gas industry. In principle, well-established results from nucleation theory offer the prospect of predictive models for hydrate formation probability in industrial production systems. In practice, however, heuristics are relied on when estimating formation risk for a given flowline subcooling or when quantifying kinetic hydrate inhibitor (KHI) performance. Here, we present statistically significant measurements of formation probability distributions for natural gas hydrate systems under shear, which are quantitatively compared with theoretical predictions. Distributions with over 100 points were generated using low-mass, Peltier-cooled pressure cells, cycled in temperature between 40 and -5 °C at up to 2 K·min -1 and analyzed with robust algorithms that automatically identify hydrate formation and initial growth rates from dynamic pressure data. The application of shear had a significant influence on the measured distributions: at 700 rpm mass-transfer limitations were minimal, as demonstrated by the kinetic growth rates observed. The formation probability distributions measured at this shear rate had mean subcoolings consistent with theoretical predictions and steel-hydrate-water contact angles of 14-26°. However, the experimental distributions were substantially wider than predicted, suggesting that phenomena acting on macroscopic length scales are responsible for much of the observed stochastic formation. Performance tests of a KHI provided new insights into how such chemicals can reduce the risk of hydrate blockage in flowlines. Our data demonstrate that the KHI not only reduces the probability of formation (by both shifting and sharpening the distribution) but also reduces hydrate growth rates by a factor of 2.

  14. Joint Probability Distributions for a Class of Non-Markovian Processes

    OpenAIRE

    Baule, A.; Friedrich, R.

    2004-01-01

    We consider joint probability distributions for the class of coupled Langevin equations introduced by Fogedby [H.C. Fogedby, Phys. Rev. E 50, 1657 (1994)]. We generalize well-known results for the single time probability distributions to the case of N-time joint probability distributions. It is shown that these probability distribution functions can be obtained by an integral transform from distributions of a Markovian process. The integral kernel obeys a partial differential equation with fr...

  15. Transforming between discrete and continuous angle distribution models: application to protein χ1 torsions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schmidt, Jürgen M.

    2012-01-01

    Two commonly employed angular-mobility models for describing amino-acid side-chain χ 1 torsion conformation, the staggered-rotamer jump and the normal probability density, are discussed and performance differences in applications to scalar-coupling data interpretation highlighted. Both models differ in their distinct statistical concepts, representing discrete and continuous angle distributions, respectively. Circular statistics, introduced for describing torsion-angle distributions by using a universal circular order parameter central to all models, suggest another distribution of the continuous class, here referred to as the elliptic model. Characteristic of the elliptic model is that order parameter and circular variance form complementary moduli. Transformations between the parameter sets that describe the probability density functions underlying the different models are provided. Numerical aspects of parameter optimization are considered. The issues are typified by using a set of χ 1 related 3 J coupling constants available for FK506-binding protein. The discrete staggered-rotamer model is found generally to produce lower order parameters, implying elevated rotatory variability in the amino-acid side chains, whereas continuous models tend to give higher order parameters that suggest comparatively less variation in angle conformations. The differences perceived regarding angular mobility are attributed to conceptually different features inherent to the models.

  16. Multiscale probability distribution of pressure fluctuations in fluidized beds

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ghasemi, Fatemeh; Sahimi, Muhammad; Reza Rahimi Tabar, M; Peinke, Joachim

    2012-01-01

    Analysis of flow in fluidized beds, a common chemical reactor, is of much current interest due to its fundamental as well as industrial importance. Experimental data for the successive increments of the pressure fluctuations time series in a fluidized bed are analyzed by computing a multiscale probability density function (PDF) of the increments. The results demonstrate the evolution of the shape of the PDF from the short to long time scales. The deformation of the PDF across time scales may be modeled by the log-normal cascade model. The results are also in contrast to the previously proposed PDFs for the pressure fluctuations that include a Gaussian distribution and a PDF with a power-law tail. To understand better the properties of the pressure fluctuations, we also construct the shuffled and surrogate time series for the data and analyze them with the same method. It turns out that long-range correlations play an important role in the structure of the time series that represent the pressure fluctuation. (paper)

  17. Relativistic Electron Pitch Angle Distributions in the Inner Magnetosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Friedel, Reiner; Zhao, Hong; Reeves, Geoff; Chen, Yue; Henderson, Mike; Kanekal, Shri; Baker, Dan; Jaynes, Allison

    2017-04-01

    Relativistic electron pitch angle distributions (PADs) in the trapped inner region of the magnetosphere are a sensitive measure of many processes that govern the dynamics of these particles. We report here on statistical observations of relativistic electron PADs from the REPT (Relativistic Electron/Proton Telescope) instrument aboard the Van Allen Probes mission, which show an unexpected dawn/dusk asymmetry that seems to be a persistent feature during quiet times of Dst > -20 nT. The observed PADs show a more peaked pancake distribution at dusk compared to dawn for energies above 1.8 MeV only. Energies from a few 100 KeV to 1 m,eV do NOT show these asymmetries, ruling out magnetic field model effects. These observations hint at persistent processes that can act on relativistic electrons on timescales on the order of the outer radiation belt drift period (10 minutes).

  18. Probability Distributions of Minkowski Distances between Discrete Random Variables.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schroger, Erich; And Others

    1993-01-01

    Minkowski distances are used to indicate similarity of two vectors in an N-dimensional space. How to compute the probability function, the expectation, and the variance for Minkowski distances and the special cases City-block distance and Euclidean distance. Critical values for tests of significance are presented in tables. (SLD)

  19. Most probable degree distribution at fixed structural entropy

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    This result indicates that scale-free degree distributions emerge naturally when con- sidering networks ensemble with small structural entropy. The appearance of the power-law degree distribution reflects the tendency of social, technological and es- pecially biological networks toward 'ordering'. This tendency is at work ...

  20. Some explicit expressions for the probability distribution of force ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    96: Art. No. 098001. Tighe B P, Socolar J E S, Schaeffer D G, Mitchener W G, Huber M L 2005 Force distributions in a triangular lattice of rigid bars. Phys. Rev. E 72: Art. No. 031306. Vargas W L, Murcia J C, Palacio L E, Dominguez D M 2003 Fractional diffusion model for force distribution in static granular media. Phys. Rev.

  1. Modified Stieltjes Transform and Generalized Convolutions of Probability Distributions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lev B. Klebanov

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The classical Stieltjes transform is modified in such a way as to generalize both Stieltjes and Fourier transforms. This transform allows the introduction of new classes of commutative and non-commutative generalized convolutions. A particular case of such a convolution for degenerate distributions appears to be the Wigner semicircle distribution.

  2. Joint probability distributions for a class of non-Markovian processes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baule, A; Friedrich, R

    2005-02-01

    We consider joint probability distributions for the class of coupled Langevin equations introduced by Fogedby [H. C. Fogedby, Phys. Rev. E 50, 1657 (1994)]. We generalize well-known results for the single-time probability distributions to the case of N -time joint probability distributions. It is shown that these probability distribution functions can be obtained by an integral transform from distributions of a Markovian process. The integral kernel obeys a partial differential equation with fractional time derivatives reflecting the non-Markovian character of the process.

  3. The Impact of an Instructional Intervention Designed to Support Development of Stochastic Understanding of Probability Distribution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conant, Darcy Lynn

    2013-01-01

    Stochastic understanding of probability distribution undergirds development of conceptual connections between probability and statistics and supports development of a principled understanding of statistical inference. This study investigated the impact of an instructional course intervention designed to support development of stochastic…

  4. Probability Distribution Function of the Upper Equatorial Pacific Current Speeds

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Chu, Peter C

    2005-01-01

    ...), constructed from hourly ADCP data (1990-2007) at six stations for the Tropical Atmosphere Ocean project satisfies the two-parameter Weibull distribution reasonably well with different characteristics between El Nino and La Nina events...

  5. Sampling Random Bioinformatics Puzzles using Adaptive Probability Distributions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Have, Christian Theil; Appel, Emil Vincent; Bork-Jensen, Jette

    2016-01-01

    We present a probabilistic logic program to generate an educational puzzle that introduces the basic principles of next generation sequencing, gene finding and the translation of genes to proteins following the central dogma in biology. In the puzzle, a secret "protein word" must be found by asse...... and the randomness of the generation process, sampling may fail to generate a satisfactory puzzle. To avoid failure we employ a strategy using adaptive probabilities which change in response to previous steps of generative process, thus minimizing the risk of failure....

  6. Supervised learning of probability distributions by neural networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baum, Eric B.; Wilczek, Frank

    1988-01-01

    Supervised learning algorithms for feedforward neural networks are investigated analytically. The back-propagation algorithm described by Werbos (1974), Parker (1985), and Rumelhart et al. (1986) is generalized by redefining the values of the input and output neurons as probabilities. The synaptic weights are then varied to follow gradients in the logarithm of likelihood rather than in the error. This modification is shown to provide a more rigorous theoretical basis for the algorithm and to permit more accurate predictions. A typical application involving a medical-diagnosis expert system is discussed.

  7. Percentile estimation using the normal and lognormal probability distribution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bement, T.R.

    1980-01-01

    Implicitly or explicitly percentile estimation is an important aspect of the analysis of aerial radiometric survey data. Standard deviation maps are produced for quadrangles which are surveyed as part of the National Uranium Resource Evaluation. These maps show where variables differ from their mean values by more than one, two or three standard deviations. Data may or may not be log-transformed prior to analysis. These maps have specific percentile interpretations only when proper distributional assumptions are met. Monte Carlo results are presented in this paper which show the consequences of estimating percentiles by: (1) assuming normality when the data are really from a lognormal distribution; and (2) assuming lognormality when the data are really from a normal distribution

  8. Evaluation of the probability distribution of intake from a single measurement on a personal air sampler

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Birchall, A.; Muirhead, C.R.; James, A.C.

    1988-01-01

    An analytical expression has been derived for the k-sum distribution, formed by summing k random variables from a lognormal population. Poisson statistics are used with this distribution to derive distribution of intake when breathing an atmosphere with a constant particle number concentration. Bayesian inference is then used to calculate the posterior probability distribution of concentrations from a given measurement. This is combined with the above intake distribution to give the probability distribution of intake resulting from a single measurement of activity made by an ideal sampler. It is shown that the probability distribution of intake is very dependent on the prior distribution used in Bayes' theorem. The usual prior assumption, that all number concentrations are equally probable, leads to an imbalance in the posterior intake distribution. This can be resolved if a new prior proportional to w -2/3 is used, where w is the expected number of particles collected. (author)

  9. Study on probability distribution of fire scenarios in risk assessment to emergency evacuation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chu Guanquan; Wang Jinhui

    2012-01-01

    Event tree analysis (ETA) is a frequently-used technique to analyze the probability of probable fire scenario. The event probability is usually characterized by definite value. It is not appropriate to use definite value as these estimates may be the result of poor quality statistics and limited knowledge. Without addressing uncertainties, ETA will give imprecise results. The credibility of risk assessment will be undermined. This paper presents an approach to address event probability uncertainties and analyze probability distribution of probable fire scenario. ETA is performed to construct probable fire scenarios. The activation time of every event is characterized as stochastic variable by considering uncertainties of fire growth rate and other input variables. To obtain probability distribution of probable fire scenario, Markov Chain is proposed to combine with ETA. To demonstrate the approach, a case study is presented.

  10. Size effect on strength and lifetime probability distributions of ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    The safety factors required to ensure it are still determined empirically, even though they represent much larger and much more uncertain corrections to ... The theory is shown to match the experimentally observed systematic deviations of strength and lifetime histograms of industrial ceramics from the Weibull distribution.

  11. Cosmological constraints from the convergence 1-point probability distribution

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Patton, Kenneth [The Ohio State Univ., Columbus, OH (United States); Blazek, Jonathan [The Ohio State Univ., Columbus, OH (United States); Ecole Polytechnique Federale de Lausanne (EPFL), Versoix (Switzerland); Honscheid, Klaus [The Ohio State Univ., Columbus, OH (United States); Huff, Eric [The Ohio State Univ., Columbus, OH (United States); California Inst. of Technology (CalTech), Pasadena, CA (United States); Melchior, Peter [Princeton Univ., Princeton, NJ (United States); Ross, Ashley J. [The Ohio State Univ., Columbus, OH (United States); Suchyta, Eric D. [The Ohio State Univ., Columbus, OH (United States); Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

    2017-06-29

    Here, we examine the cosmological information available from the 1-point probability density function (PDF) of the weak-lensing convergence field, utilizing fast l-picola simulations and a Fisher analysis. We find competitive constraints in the Ωm–σ8 plane from the convergence PDF with 188 arcmin2 pixels compared to the cosmic shear power spectrum with an equivalent number of modes (ℓ < 886). The convergence PDF also partially breaks the degeneracy cosmic shear exhibits in that parameter space. A joint analysis of the convergence PDF and shear 2-point function also reduces the impact of shape measurement systematics, to which the PDF is less susceptible, and improves the total figure of merit by a factor of 2–3, depending on the level of systematics. Finally, we present a correction factor necessary for calculating the unbiased Fisher information from finite differences using a limited number of cosmological simulations.

  12. Comparision of the different probability distributions for earthquake hazard assessment in the North Anatolian Fault Zone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yilmaz, Şeyda; Bayrak, Erdem; Bayrak, Yusuf

    2016-04-01

    In this study we examined and compared the three different probabilistic distribution methods for determining the best suitable model in probabilistic assessment of earthquake hazards. We analyzed a reliable homogeneous earthquake catalogue between a time period 1900-2015 for magnitude M ≥ 6.0 and estimated the probabilistic seismic hazard in the North Anatolian Fault zone (39°-41° N 30°-40° E) using three distribution methods namely Weibull distribution, Frechet distribution and three-parameter Weibull distribution. The distribution parameters suitability was evaluated Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K-S) goodness-of-fit test. We also compared the estimated cumulative probability and the conditional probabilities of occurrence of earthquakes for different elapsed time using these three distribution methods. We used Easyfit and Matlab software to calculate these distribution parameters and plotted the conditional probability curves. We concluded that the Weibull distribution method was the most suitable than other distribution methods in this region.

  13. Comparision of the different probability distributions for earthquake hazard assessment in the North Anatolian Fault Zone

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yilmaz, Şeyda, E-mail: seydayilmaz@ktu.edu.tr; Bayrak, Erdem, E-mail: erdmbyrk@gmail.com [Karadeniz Technical University, Trabzon (Turkey); Bayrak, Yusuf, E-mail: bayrak@ktu.edu.tr [Ağrı İbrahim Çeçen University, Ağrı (Turkey)

    2016-04-18

    In this study we examined and compared the three different probabilistic distribution methods for determining the best suitable model in probabilistic assessment of earthquake hazards. We analyzed a reliable homogeneous earthquake catalogue between a time period 1900-2015 for magnitude M ≥ 6.0 and estimated the probabilistic seismic hazard in the North Anatolian Fault zone (39°-41° N 30°-40° E) using three distribution methods namely Weibull distribution, Frechet distribution and three-parameter Weibull distribution. The distribution parameters suitability was evaluated Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K-S) goodness-of-fit test. We also compared the estimated cumulative probability and the conditional probabilities of occurrence of earthquakes for different elapsed time using these three distribution methods. We used Easyfit and Matlab software to calculate these distribution parameters and plotted the conditional probability curves. We concluded that the Weibull distribution method was the most suitable than other distribution methods in this region.

  14. Probability distributions for first neighbor distances between resonances that belong to two different families

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Difilippo, F.C.

    1994-01-01

    For a mixture of two families of resonances, we found the probability distribution for the distance, as first neighbors, between resonances that belong to different families. Integration of this distribution gives the probability of accidental overlapping of resonances of one isotope by resonances of the other, provided that the resonances of each isotope belong to a single family. (author)

  15. Calculation of ruin probabilities for a dense class of heavy tailed distributions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bladt, Mogens; Nielsen, Bo Friis; Samorodnitsky, Gennady

    2015-01-01

    of distributions with a slowly varying tail. An example from risk theory, comparing ruin probabilities for a classical risk process with Pareto distributed claim sizes, is presented and exact known ruin probabilities for the Pareto case are compared to the ones obtained by approximating by an infinite...... any such distribution. We prove that formulas from renewal theory, and with a particular attention to ruin probabilities, which are true for common phase-type distributions also hold true for the infinite-dimensional case. We provide algorithms for calculating functionals of interest...... such as the renewal density and the ruin probability. It might be of interest to approximate a given heavy tailed distribution of some other type by a distribution from the class of infinite-dimensional phase-type distributions and to this end we provide a calibration procedure which works for the approximation...

  16. The distribution of tilt angles in newly born NSs: role of interior viscosity and magnetic field

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dall'Osso, Simone; Perna, Rosalba

    2017-12-01

    We study how the viscosity of neutron star (NS) matter affects the distribution of tilt angles (χ) between the spin and magnetic axes in young pulsars. Under the hypothesis that the NS shape is determined by the magnetically induced deformation, and that the toroidal component of the internal magnetic field exceeds the poloidal one, we show that the dissipation of precessional motions by bulk viscosity can naturally produce a bi-modal distribution of tilt angles, as observed in radio/γ-ray pulsars, with a low probability of achieving χ ˜ (20°-70°) if the interior B-field is ˜(1011-1015) G and the birth spin period is ˜10-300 ms. As a corollary of the model, the idea that the NS shape is solely determined by the poloidal magnetic field, or by the centrifugal deformation of the crust, is found to be inconsistent with the tilt angle distribution in young pulsars. When applied to the Crab pulsar, with χ ˜ 45°-70° and birth spin ≳20 ms, our model implies that: (I) the magnetically induced ellipticity is ɛB ≳ 3 × 10-6; and (II) the measured positive\\dot{χ } ˜ 3.6 × 10^{-12} rad s-1 requires an additional viscous process, acting on a time-scale ≲104 yr. We interpret the latter as crust-core coupling via mutual friction in the superfluid NS interior. One critical implication of our model is a gravitational wave signal at (twice) the spin frequency of the NS. For ɛB ˜ 10-6, this could be detectable by Advanced LIGO/Virgo operating at design sensitivity.

  17. Approximate solution for the reactor neutron probability distribution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ruby, L.; McSwine, T.L.

    1985-01-01

    Several authors have studied the Kolmogorov equation for a fission-driven chain-reacting system, written in terms of the generating function G(x,y,z,t) where x, y, and z are dummy variables referring to the neutron, delayed neutron precursor, and detector-count populations, n, m, and c, respectively. Pal and Zolotukhin and Mogil'ner have shown that if delayed neutrons are neglected, the solution is approximately negative binomial for the neutron population. Wang and Ruby have shown that if the detector effect is neglected, the solution, including the effect of delayed neutrons, is approximately negative binomial. All of the authors assumed prompt-neutron emission not exceeding two neutrons per fission. An approximate method of separating the detector effect from the statistics of the neutron and precursor populations has been proposed by Ruby. In this weak-coupling limit, it is assumed that G(x,y,z,t) = H(x,y)I(z,t). Substitution of this assumption into the Kolmogorov equation separates the latter into two equations, one for H(x,y) and the other for I(z,t). Solution of the latter then gives a generating function, which indicates that in the weak-coupling limit, the detector counts are Poisson distributed. Ruby also showed that if the detector effect is neglected in the equation for H(x,y), i.e., the detector efficiency is set to zero, then the resulting equation is identical with that considered by Wang and Ruby. The authors present here an approximate solution for H(x,y) that does not set the detector efficiency to zero

  18. Family of probability distributions derived from maximal entropy principle with scale invariant restrictions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sonnino, Giorgio; Steinbrecher, György; Cardinali, Alessandro; Sonnino, Alberto; Tlidi, Mustapha

    2013-01-01

    Using statistical thermodynamics, we derive a general expression of the stationary probability distribution for thermodynamic systems driven out of equilibrium by several thermodynamic forces. The local equilibrium is defined by imposing the minimum entropy production and the maximum entropy principle under the scale invariance restrictions. The obtained probability distribution presents a singularity that has immediate physical interpretation in terms of the intermittency models. The derived reference probability distribution function is interpreted as time and ensemble average of the real physical one. A generic family of stochastic processes describing noise-driven intermittency, where the stationary density distribution coincides exactly with the one resulted from entropy maximization, is presented.

  19. Separating the contributions of variability and parameter uncertainty in probability distributions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sankararaman, S.; Mahadevan, S.

    2013-01-01

    This paper proposes a computational methodology to quantify the individual contributions of variability and distribution parameter uncertainty to the overall uncertainty in a random variable. Even if the distribution type is assumed to be known, sparse or imprecise data leads to uncertainty about the distribution parameters. If uncertain distribution parameters are represented using probability distributions, then the random variable can be represented using a family of probability distributions. The family of distributions concept has been used to obtain qualitative, graphical inference of the contributions of natural variability and distribution parameter uncertainty. The proposed methodology provides quantitative estimates of the contributions of the two types of uncertainty. Using variance-based global sensitivity analysis, the contributions of variability and distribution parameter uncertainty to the overall uncertainty are computed. The proposed method is developed at two different levels; first, at the level of a variable whose distribution parameters are uncertain, and second, at the level of a model output whose inputs have uncertain distribution parameters

  20. The effects of laser beam incident angle and intensity distribution on Fabry-Perot etalon spectrum

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Fahua; Wang, Yingying; Shi, Wenjuan; Chen, Ying; Liu, Mengling; Guo, Wenxin

    2017-11-01

    Fabry-Perot(F-P) etalon has important applications in laser detection, lidar and laser communication systems. In practical applications, the spectrum of the F-P etalon is affected by various factors, such as incident angle, divergence angle, spectral width, intensity distribution of the incident beam, absorption loss, surface defects of the plate and so on. The effects of the incident angle and the beam intensity distribution on F-P etalon spectrum are mainly analyzed. For the first time, taking into account both the beam incident angle and divergence angle, the precise analytical expression of the F-P etalon transmission spectrum is derived. For the Gaussian light intensity distribution, the precise analytical expression of the F-P etalon transmission spectrum is derived. The simulation analysis is carried out and the results are as follows. When the beam divergence angle is not zero, the incident angle increases, on the one hand, the center of the etalon spectrum is moved to the high frequency, and the frequency shift is linear with the square of the incident angle. The slope decreases with the increase of the divergence angle. On the other hand, resulting in peak reduction, spectral line broadening, and with the divergence angle increases, the more obvious the phenomenon. Considering the distribution of Gaussian light intensity, the spectrum of the etalon will be improved with the increase concentration of beam energy. On the one hand, the peak value is increased, the spectral line is narrowed and with the incidence angle increases, the degree of improvement is more obvious. On the one hand, the center of the spectrum moves toward the low frequency, but the larger the incident angle, the smaller the movement amount. The error of frequency discrimination or frequency locking by using the F-P etalon spectrum increases rapidly with the increase of the beam incident angle and beam divergence angle, and the Gaussian light intensity distribution beam can effectively

  1. Collective motions of globally coupled oscillators and some probability distributions on circle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jaćimović, Vladimir; Crnkić, Aladin

    2017-01-01

    In 2010 Kato and Jones described a new family of probability distributions on circle, obtained as Möbius transformation of von Mises distribution. We present the model demonstrating that these distributions appear naturally in study of populations of coupled oscillators. We use this opportunity to point out certain relations between Directional Statistics and collective motion of coupled oscillators. - Highlights: • We specify probability distributions on circle that arise in Kuramoto model. • We study how the mean-field coupling affects the shape of distribution of phases. • We discuss potential applications in some experiments on cell cycle. • We apply Directional Statistics to study collective dynamics of coupled oscillators.

  2. Collective motions of globally coupled oscillators and some probability distributions on circle

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jaćimović, Vladimir [Faculty of Natural Sciences and Mathematics, University of Montenegro, Cetinjski put, bb., 81000 Podgorica (Montenegro); Crnkić, Aladin, E-mail: aladin.crnkic@hotmail.com [Faculty of Technical Engineering, University of Bihać, Ljubijankićeva, bb., 77000 Bihać, Bosnia and Herzegovina (Bosnia and Herzegovina)

    2017-06-28

    In 2010 Kato and Jones described a new family of probability distributions on circle, obtained as Möbius transformation of von Mises distribution. We present the model demonstrating that these distributions appear naturally in study of populations of coupled oscillators. We use this opportunity to point out certain relations between Directional Statistics and collective motion of coupled oscillators. - Highlights: • We specify probability distributions on circle that arise in Kuramoto model. • We study how the mean-field coupling affects the shape of distribution of phases. • We discuss potential applications in some experiments on cell cycle. • We apply Directional Statistics to study collective dynamics of coupled oscillators.

  3. Skew Generalized Extreme Value Distribution: Probability Weighted Moments Estimation and Application to Block Maxima Procedure

    OpenAIRE

    Ribereau, Pierre; Masiello, Esterina; Naveau, Philippe

    2014-01-01

    International audience; Following the work of Azzalini ([2] and [3]) on the skew normal distribution, we propose an extension of the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution, the SGEV. This new distribution allows for a better t of maxima and can be interpreted as both the distribution of maxima when maxima are taken on dependent data and when maxima are taken over a random block size. We propose to estimate the parameters of the SGEV distribution via the Probability Weighted Moments meth...

  4. New family of probability distributions with applications to Monte Carlo studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Johnson, M.E.; Tietjen, G.L.; Beckman, R.J.

    1980-01-01

    A new probability distribution is presented that offers considerable potential for providing stochastic inputs to Monte Carlo simulation studies. The distribution includes the exponential power family as a special case. An efficient computational strategy is proposed for random variate generation. An example for testing the hypothesis of unit variance illustrates the advantages of the proposed distribution

  5. A transmission probability method for calculation of neutron flux distributions in hexagonal geometry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wasastjerna, F.; Lux, I.

    1980-03-01

    A transmission probability method implemented in the program TPHEX is described. This program was developed for the calculation of neutron flux distributions in hexagonal light water reactor fuel assemblies. The accuracy appears to be superior to diffusion theory, and the computation time is shorter than that of the collision probability method. (author)

  6. A measure of mutual divergence among a number of probability distributions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. N. Kapur

    1987-01-01

    major inequalities due to Shannon, Renyi and Holder. The inequalities are then used to obtain some useful results in information theory. In particular measures are obtained to measure the mutual divergence among two or more probability distributions.

  7. Central limit theorems for Sinkhorn divergence between probability distributions on finite spaces and statistical applications

    OpenAIRE

    Bigot, Jérémie; Cazelles, Elsa; Papadakis, Nicolas

    2017-01-01

    The notion of Sinkhorn divergence has recently gained popularity in machine learning and statistics, as it makes feasible the use of smoothed optimal transportation distances for data analysis. The Sinkhorn divergence allows the fast computation of an entropically regularized Wasserstein distance between two probability distributions supported on a finite metric space of (possibly) high-dimension. For data sampled from one or two unknown probability distributions, we derive central limit theo...

  8. Probability Distribution and Deviation Information Fusion Driven Support Vector Regression Model and Its Application

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Changhao Fan

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available In modeling, only information from the deviation between the output of the support vector regression (SVR model and the training sample is considered, whereas the other prior information of the training sample, such as probability distribution information, is ignored. Probabilistic distribution information describes the overall distribution of sample data in a training sample that contains different degrees of noise and potential outliers, as well as helping develop a high-accuracy model. To mine and use the probability distribution information of a training sample, a new support vector regression model that incorporates probability distribution information weight SVR (PDISVR is proposed. In the PDISVR model, the probability distribution of each sample is considered as the weight and is then introduced into the error coefficient and slack variables of SVR. Thus, the deviation and probability distribution information of the training sample are both used in the PDISVR model to eliminate the influence of noise and outliers in the training sample and to improve predictive performance. Furthermore, examples with different degrees of noise were employed to demonstrate the performance of PDISVR, which was then compared with those of three SVR-based methods. The results showed that PDISVR performs better than the three other methods.

  9. The distributed failure probability approach to dependent failure analysis, and its application

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hughes, R.P.

    1989-01-01

    The Distributed Failure Probability (DFP) approach to the problem of dependent failures in systems is presented. The basis of the approach is that the failure probability of a component is a variable. The source of this variability is the change in the 'environment' of the component, where the term 'environment' is used to mean not only obvious environmental factors such as temperature etc., but also such factors as the quality of maintenance and manufacture. The failure probability is distributed among these various 'environments' giving rise to the Distributed Failure Probability method. Within the framework which this method represents, modelling assumptions can be made, based both on engineering judgment and on the data directly. As such, this DFP approach provides a soundly based and scrutable technique by which dependent failures can be quantitatively assessed. (orig.)

  10. Quantitative non-monotonic modeling of economic uncertainty by probability and possibility distributions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schjær-Jacobsen, Hans

    2012-01-01

    to the understanding of similarities and differences of the two approaches as well as practical applications. The probability approach offers a good framework for representation of randomness and variability. Once the probability distributions of uncertain parameters and their correlations are known the resulting...... uncertainty can be calculated. The possibility approach is particular well suited for representation of uncertainty of a non-statistical nature due to lack of knowledge and requires less information than the probability approach. Based on the kind of uncertainty and knowledge present, these aspects...... by probability distributions is readily done by means of Monte Carlo simulation. Calculation of non-monotonic functions of possibility distributions is done within the theoretical framework of fuzzy intervals, but straight forward application of fuzzy arithmetic in general results in overestimation of interval...

  11. Predicting the probability of slip in gait: methodology and distribution study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gragg, Jared; Yang, James

    2016-01-01

    The likelihood of a slip is related to the available and required friction for a certain activity, here gait. Classical slip and fall analysis presumed that a walking surface was safe if the difference between the mean available and required friction coefficients exceeded a certain threshold. Previous research was dedicated to reformulating the classical slip and fall theory to include the stochastic variation of the available and required friction when predicting the probability of slip in gait. However, when predicting the probability of a slip, previous researchers have either ignored the variation in the required friction or assumed the available and required friction to be normally distributed. Also, there are no published results that actually give the probability of slip for various combinations of required and available frictions. This study proposes a modification to the equation for predicting the probability of slip, reducing the previous equation from a double-integral to a more convenient single-integral form. Also, a simple numerical integration technique is provided to predict the probability of slip in gait: the trapezoidal method. The effect of the random variable distributions on the probability of slip is also studied. It is shown that both the required and available friction distributions cannot automatically be assumed as being normally distributed. The proposed methods allow for any combination of distributions for the available and required friction, and numerical results are compared to analytical solutions for an error analysis. The trapezoidal method is shown to be highly accurate and efficient. The probability of slip is also shown to be sensitive to the input distributions of the required and available friction. Lastly, a critical value for the probability of slip is proposed based on the number of steps taken by an average person in a single day.

  12. Probability distribution of long-run indiscriminate felling of trees in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The study was undertaken to determine the probability distribution of Long-run indiscriminate felling of trees in northern senatorial district of Adamawa State. Specifically, the study focused on examining the future direction of indiscriminate felling of trees as well as its equilibrium distribution. A multi-stage and simple random ...

  13. Bounds for the probability distribution function of the linear ACD process

    OpenAIRE

    Fernandes, Marcelo

    2003-01-01

    Rio de Janeiro This paper derives both lower and upper bounds for the probability distribution function of stationary ACD(p, q) processes. For the purpose of illustration, I specialize the results to the main parent distributions in duration analysis. Simulations show that the lower bound is much tighter than the upper bound.

  14. The distribution function of a probability measure on a space with a fractal structure

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sanchez-Granero, M.A.; Galvez-Rodriguez, J.F.

    2017-07-01

    In this work we show how to define a probability measure with the help of a fractal structure. One of the keys of this approach is to use the completion of the fractal structure. Then we use the theory of a cumulative distribution function on a Polish ultrametric space and describe it in this context. Finally, with the help of fractal structures, we prove that a function satisfying the properties of a cumulative distribution function on a Polish ultrametric space is a cumulative distribution function with respect to some probability measure on the space. (Author)

  15. Feynman quasi probability distribution for spin-(1/2), and its generalizations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Colucci, M.

    1999-01-01

    It has been examined the Feynman's paper Negative probability, in which, after a discussion about the possibility of attributing a real physical meaning to quasi probability distributions, he introduces a new kind of distribution for spin-(1/2), with a possible method of generalization to systems with arbitrary number of states. The principal aim of this article is to shed light upon the method of construction of these distributions, taking into consideration their application to some experiments, and discussing their positive and negative aspects

  16. Time dependent and asymptotic neutron number probability distribution calculation using discrete Fourier transform

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Humbert, Ph.

    2005-01-01

    In this paper we consider the probability distribution of neutrons in a multiplying assembly. The problem is studied using a space independent one group neutron point reactor model without delayed neutrons. We recall the generating function methodology and analytical results obtained by G.I. Bell when the c 2 approximation is used and we present numerical solutions in the general case, without this approximation. The neutron source induced distribution is calculated using the single initial neutron distribution which satisfies a master (Kolmogorov backward) equation. This equation is solved using the generating function method. The generating function satisfies a differential equation and the probability distribution is derived by inversion of the generating function. Numerical results are obtained using the same methodology where the generating function is the Fourier transform of the probability distribution. Discrete Fourier transforms are used to calculate the discrete time dependent distributions and continuous Fourier transforms are used to calculate the asymptotic continuous probability distributions. Numerical applications are presented to illustrate the method. (author)

  17. Cluster of CubeSats for Multi-Angle Measurements of Bidirectional Reflectance Distribution Function (BRDF)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Cluster of CubeSats for Multi-Angle Measurements of Bidirectional Reflectance Distribution Function (BRDF) The rapidly advancing capabilities of small satellite...

  18. PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION OVER THE SET OF CLASSES IN ARABIC DIALECT CLASSIFICATION TASK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. V. Durandin

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Subject of Research.We propose an approach for solving machine learning classification problem that uses the information about the probability distribution on the training data class label set. The algorithm is illustrated on a complex natural language processing task - classification of Arabic dialects. Method. Each object in the training set is associated with a probability distribution over the class label set instead of a particular class label. The proposed approach solves the classification problem taking into account the probability distribution over the class label set to improve the quality of the built classifier. Main Results. The suggested approach is illustrated on the automatic Arabic dialects classification example. Mined from the Twitter social network, the analyzed data contain word-marks and belong to the following six Arabic dialects: Saudi, Levantine, Algerian, Egyptian, Iraq, Jordan, and to the modern standard Arabic (MSA. The paper results demonstrate an increase of the quality of the built classifier achieved by taking into account probability distributions over the set of classes. Experiments carried out show that even relatively naive accounting of the probability distributions improves the precision of the classifier from 44% to 67%. Practical Relevance. Our approach and corresponding algorithm could be effectively used in situations when a manual annotation process performed by experts is connected with significant financial and time resources, but it is possible to create a system of heuristic rules. The implementation of the proposed algorithm enables to decrease significantly the data preparation expenses without substantial losses in the precision of the classification.

  19. Regional probability distribution of the annual reference evapotranspiration and its effective parameters in Iran

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khanmohammadi, Neda; Rezaie, Hossein; Montaseri, Majid; Behmanesh, Javad

    2017-10-01

    The reference evapotranspiration (ET0) plays an important role in water management plans in arid or semi-arid countries such as Iran. For this reason, the regional analysis of this parameter is important. But, ET0 process is affected by several meteorological parameters such as wind speed, solar radiation, temperature and relative humidity. Therefore, the effect of distribution type of effective meteorological variables on ET0 distribution was analyzed. For this purpose, the regional probability distribution of the annual ET0 and its effective parameters were selected. Used data in this research was recorded data at 30 synoptic stations of Iran during 1960-2014. Using the probability plot correlation coefficient (PPCC) test and the L-moment method, five common distributions were compared and the best distribution was selected. The results of PPCC test and L-moment diagram indicated that the Pearson type III distribution was the best probability distribution for fitting annual ET0 and its four effective parameters. The results of RMSE showed that the ability of the PPCC test and L-moment method for regional analysis of reference evapotranspiration and its effective parameters was similar. The results also showed that the distribution type of the parameters which affected ET0 values can affect the distribution of reference evapotranspiration.

  20. Generalized Huberman-Rudnick scaling law and robustness of q-Gaussian probability distributions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Afsar, Ozgur; Tirnakli, Ugur

    2013-01-01

    We generalize Huberman-Rudnick universal scaling law for all periodic windows of the logistic map and show the robustness of q-Gaussian probability distributions in the vicinity of chaos threshold. Our scaling relation is universal for the self-similar windows of the map which exhibit period-doubling subharmonic bifurcations. Using this generalized scaling argument, for all periodic windows, as chaos threshold is approached, a developing convergence to q-Gaussian is numerically obtained both in the central regions and tails of the probability distributions of sums of iterates.

  1. On the probability distribution of the stochastic saturation scale in QCD

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marquet, C.; Soyez, G.; Xiao Bowen

    2006-01-01

    It was recently noticed that high-energy scattering processes in QCD have a stochastic nature. An event-by-event scattering amplitude is characterised by a saturation scale which is a random variable. The statistical ensemble of saturation scales formed with all the events is distributed according to a probability law whose cumulants have been recently computed. In this work, we obtain the probability distribution from the cumulants. We prove that it can be considered as Gaussian over a large domain that we specify and our results are confirmed by numerical simulations

  2. LAGRANGE MULTIPLIERS IN THE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS ELICITATION PROBLEM: AN APPLICATION TO THE 2013 FIFA CONFEDERATIONS CUP

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Diogo de Carvalho Bezerra

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT Contributions from the sensitivity analysis of the parameters of the linear programming model for the elicitation of experts' beliefs are presented. The process allows for the calibration of the family of probability distributions obtained in the elicitation process. An experiment to obtain the probability distribution of a future event (Brazil vs. Spain soccer game in the 2013 FIFA Confederations Cup final game was conducted. The proposed sensitivity analysis step may help to reduce the vagueness of the information given by the expert.

  3. Conical pitch angle distributions of very-low energy ion fluxes observed by ISEE 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Horowitz, J.L.; Baugher, C.R.; Chappell, C.R.; Shelley, E.G.; Young, D.T.

    1982-01-01

    Observations of low-energy ionospheric ions by the plasma composition experiment abroad ISEE 1 often show conical pitch angle distributions, that is, peak fluxes between 0 0 and 90 0 to the directions parallel or antiparallel to the magnetic field. Frequently, all three primary ionospheric ion species (H + , He + , and O + ) simultaneously exhibit conical distributions with peak fluxes at essentially the same pitch angle. A distinction is made here between unidirectional, or streaming, distributions, in which ions are traveling essentially from only one hemisphere, and symmetrical distributions, in which significant fluxes are observed traveling from both hemispheres. The orbital coverage for this survey was largely restricted to the night sector, approximately 2100--0600 LT, and moderate geomagnetic latitudes of 20 0 --40 0 . Also, lack of complete pitch angle coverage at all times may have reduced detection for conics with small cone angles. However, we may conclude that the unidirectional conical distributions observed in the northern hemisphere are always observed to be traveling from the northern hemisphere and that they exhibit the following characteristics relative to the symmetric distributions, in that they (1) are typically observed on higher L shells (that is, higher geomagnetic latitudes or larger geocentric distances or both), (2) tend to have significantly larger cone angles, and (3), are associated with higher magnetic activity levels

  4. A method for the calculation of the cumulative failure probability distribution of complex repairable systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Caldarola, L.

    1976-01-01

    A method is proposed for the analytical evaluation of the cumulative failure probability distribution of complex repairable systems. The method is based on a set of integral equations each one referring to a specific minimal cut set of the system. Each integral equation links the unavailability of a minimal cut set to its failure probability density distribution and to the probability that the minimal cut set is down at the time t under the condition that it was down at time t'(t'<=t). The limitations for the applicability of the method are also discussed. It has been concluded that the method is applicable if the process describing the failure of a minimal cut set is a 'delayed semi-regenerative process'. (Auth.)

  5. Maximizing a Probability: A Student Workshop on an Application of Continuous Distributions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griffiths, Martin

    2010-01-01

    For many students meeting, say, the gamma distribution for the first time, it may well turn out to be a rather fruitless encounter unless they are immediately able to see an application of this probability model to some real-life situation. With this in mind, we pose here an appealing problem that can be used as the basis for a workshop activity…

  6. The distribution of FRAX(®)-based probabilities in women from Japan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kanis, John A; Johansson, Helena; Odén, Anders; McCloskey, Eugene V

    2012-11-01

    New assessment guidelines for osteoporosis in Japan include the use of the WHO risk assessment tool (FRAX) that computes the 10-year probability of fracture. The aim of this study was to determine the distribution of fracture probabilities and to assess the impact of probability-based intervention thresholds in women from Japan aged 50 years and older. Age-specific simulation cohorts were constructed from the prevalences of clinical risk factors and femoral neck bone mineral density to determine the distribution of fracture probabilities as assessed by FRAX. These data were used to estimate the number and proportion of women at or above a 10-year fracture probability of 5, 10, 15, 20, 25, and 30 %. In addition, case scenarios that applied a FRAX probability threshold of 15 % were compared with current guidance. In the absence of additional criteria for treatment, a 15 % fracture probability threshold would identify approximately 32 % of women over the age of 50 years (9.3 million women) as eligible for treatment. Because of expected changes in population demography, the 15 % fracture probability threshold would capture approximately 38 % of women over the age of 50 years (12.7 million women), mainly those aged 80 years or older. The introduction of a FRAX threshold of 15 % would permit treatment in women with clinical risk factors that would otherwise fall below previously established intervention thresholds. The incorporation of FRAX into assessment guidelines is likely to redirect treatments for osteoporosis from younger women at low risk to elderly women at high fracture risk.

  7. INVESTIGATION OF INFLUENCE OF ENCODING FUNCTION COMPLEXITY ON DISTRIBUTION OF ERROR MASKING PROBABILITY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. B. Levina

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Error detection codes are mechanisms that enable robust delivery of data in unreliable communication channels and devices. Unreliable channels and devices are error-prone objects. Respectively, error detection codes allow detecting such errors. There are two classes of error detecting codes - classical codes and security-oriented codes. The classical codes have high percentage of detected errors; however, they have a high probability to miss an error in algebraic manipulation. In order, security-oriented codes are codes with a small Hamming distance and high protection to algebraic manipulation. The probability of error masking is a fundamental parameter of security-oriented codes. A detailed study of this parameter allows analyzing the behavior of the error-correcting code in the case of error injection in the encoding device. In order, the complexity of the encoding function plays an important role in the security-oriented codes. Encoding functions with less computational complexity and a low probability of masking are the best protection of encoding device against malicious acts. This paper investigates the influence of encoding function complexity on the error masking probability distribution. It will be shownthat the more complex encoding function reduces the maximum of error masking probability. It is also shown in the paper that increasing of the function complexity changes the error masking probability distribution. In particular, increasing of computational complexity decreases the difference between the maximum and average value of the error masking probability. Our resultshave shown that functions with greater complexity have smoothed maximums of error masking probability, which significantly complicates the analysis of error-correcting code by attacker. As a result, in case of complex encoding function the probability of the algebraic manipulation is reduced. The paper discusses an approach how to measure the error masking

  8. Analysis of pulsed laser deposited amorphous chalcogenide film thickness distribution: Plume deflection angle dependence

    OpenAIRE

    Pavlišta , Martin; Zajac , Vit; Nazabal , Virginie; Gutwirth , Jan; Gouttefangeas , Francis; Němec , Petr

    2018-01-01

    International audience; Pulsed laser deposition exploiting a KrF excimer laser was used to fabricate amorphous As-S thin films from bulk As2S3 glass target. Thickness profile of the film was extracted from variable angle spectroscopic ellipsometry data. The dependence of thickness distribution of prepared thin layer on laser beam plume deflection angle was evaluated and corresponding equations were suggested.

  9. Audio analysis of statistically instantaneous signals with mixed Gaussian probability distributions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naik, Ganesh R.; Wang, Wenwu

    2012-10-01

    In this article, a novel method is proposed to measure the separation qualities of statistically instantaneous audio signals with mixed Gaussian probability distributions. This study evaluates the impact of the Probability Distribution Function (PDF) of the mixed signals on the outcomes of both sub- and super-Gaussian distributions. Different Gaussian measures are evaluated by using various spectral-distortion measures. It aims to compare the different audio mixtures from both super-Gaussian and sub-Gaussian perspectives. Extensive computer simulation confirms that the separated sources always have super-Gaussian characteristics irrespective of the PDF of the signals or mixtures. The result based on the objective measures demonstrates the effectiveness of source separation in improving the quality of the separated audio sources.

  10. Quantile selection procedure and assoiated distribution of ratios of order statistics from a restricted family of probability distributions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gupta, S.S.; Panchapakesan, S.

    1975-01-01

    A quantile selection procedure in reliability problems pertaining to a restricted family of probability distributions is discussed. This family is assumed to be star-ordered with respect to the standard normal distribution folded at the origin. Motivation for this formulation of the problem is described. Both exact and asymptotic results dealing with the distribution of the maximum of ratios of order statistics from such a family are obtained and tables of the appropriate constants, percentiles of this statistic, are given in order to facilitate the use of the selection procedure

  11. Precipitation intensity probability distribution modelling for hydrological and construction design purposes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koshinchanov, Georgy; Dimitrov, Dobri

    2008-01-01

    The characteristics of rainfall intensity are important for many purposes, including design of sewage and drainage systems, tuning flood warning procedures, etc. Those estimates are usually statistical estimates of the intensity of precipitation realized for certain period of time (e.g. 5, 10 min., etc) with different return period (e.g. 20, 100 years, etc). The traditional approach in evaluating the mentioned precipitation intensities is to process the pluviometer's records and fit probability distribution to samples of intensities valid for certain locations ore regions. Those estimates further become part of the state regulations to be used for various economic activities. Two problems occur using the mentioned approach: 1. Due to various factors the climate conditions are changed and the precipitation intensity estimates need regular update; 2. As far as the extremes of the probability distribution are of particular importance for the practice, the methodology of the distribution fitting needs specific attention to those parts of the distribution. The aim of this paper is to make review of the existing methodologies for processing the intensive rainfalls and to refresh some of the statistical estimates for the studied areas. The methodologies used in Bulgaria for analyzing the intensive rainfalls and produce relevant statistical estimates: - The method of the maximum intensity, used in the National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology to process and decode the pluviometer's records, followed by distribution fitting for each precipitation duration period; - As the above, but with separate modeling of probability distribution for the middle and high probability quantiles. - Method is similar to the first one, but with a threshold of 0,36 mm/min of intensity; - Another method proposed by the Russian hydrologist G. A. Aleksiev for regionalization of estimates over some territory, improved and adapted by S. Gerasimov for Bulgaria; - Next method is considering only

  12. Small-Scale Spatio-Temporal Distribution of Bactrocera minax (Enderlein) (Diptera: Tephritidae) Using Probability Kriging.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, S Q; Zhang, H Y; Li, Z L

    2016-10-01

    Understanding spatio-temporal distribution of pest in orchards can provide important information that could be used to design monitoring schemes and establish better means for pest control. In this study, the spatial and temporal distribution of Bactrocera minax (Enderlein) (Diptera: Tephritidae) was assessed, and activity trends were evaluated by using probability kriging. Adults of B. minax were captured in two successive occurrences in a small-scale citrus orchard by using food bait traps, which were placed both inside and outside the orchard. The weekly spatial distribution of B. minax within the orchard and adjacent woods was examined using semivariogram parameters. The edge concentration was discovered during the most weeks in adult occurrence, and the population of the adults aggregated with high probability within a less-than-100-m-wide band on both of the sides of the orchard and the woods. The sequential probability kriged maps showed that the adults were estimated in the marginal zone with higher probability, especially in the early and peak stages. The feeding, ovipositing, and mating behaviors of B. minax are possible explanations for these spatio-temporal patterns. Therefore, spatial arrangement and distance to the forest edge of traps or spraying spot should be considered to enhance pest control on B. minax in small-scale orchards.

  13. Measured pressure distributions of large-angle cones in hypersonic flows of tetrafluoromethane, air, and helium

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, R. A.; Hunt, J. L.

    1973-01-01

    An experimental study of surface pressure distributions on a family of blunt and sharp large angle cones was made in hypersonic flows of helium, air, and tetrafluoromethane. The effective isentropic exponents of these flows were 1.67, 1.40, and 1.12. Thus, the effect of large shock density ratios such as might be encountered during planetary entry because of real-gas effects could be studied by comparing results in tetrafluoromethane with those in air and helium. It was found that shock density ratio had a large effect on both shock shape and pressure distribution. The differences in pressure distribution indicate that for atmospheric flight at high speed where real-gas effects produce large shock density ratios, large-angle cone vehicles can be expected to experience different trim angles of attack, drag coefficient, and lift-drag ratios than those for ground tests in air wind tunnels.

  14. THREE-MOMENT BASED APPROXIMATION OF PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS IN QUEUEING SYSTEMS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. I. Aliev

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available The paper deals with the problem of approximation of probability distributions of random variables defined in positive area of real numbers with coefficient of variation different from unity. While using queueing systems as models for computer networks, calculation of characteristics is usually performed at the level of expectation and variance. At the same time, one of the main characteristics of multimedia data transmission quality in computer networks is delay jitter. For jitter calculation the function of packets time delay distribution should be known. It is shown that changing the third moment of distribution of packets delay leads to jitter calculation difference in tens or hundreds of percent, with the same values of the first two moments – expectation value and delay variation coefficient. This means that delay distribution approximation for the calculation of jitter should be performed in accordance with the third moment of delay distribution. For random variables with coefficients of variation greater than unity, iterative approximation algorithm with hyper-exponential two-phase distribution based on three moments of approximated distribution is offered. It is shown that for random variables with coefficients of variation less than unity, the impact of the third moment of distribution becomes negligible, and for approximation of such distributions Erlang distribution with two first moments should be used. This approach gives the possibility to obtain upper bounds for relevant characteristics, particularly, the upper bound of delay jitter.

  15. Probability distribution of surface wind speed induced by convective adjustment on Venus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamamoto, Masaru

    2017-03-01

    The influence of convective adjustment on the spatial structure of Venusian surface wind and probability distribution of its wind speed is investigated using an idealized weather research and forecasting model. When the initially uniform wind is much weaker than the convective wind, patches of both prograde and retrograde winds with scales of a few kilometers are formed during active convective adjustment. After the active convective adjustment, because the small-scale convective cells and their related vertical momentum fluxes dissipate quickly, the large-scale (>4 km) prograde and retrograde wind patches remain on the surface and in the longitude-height cross-section. This suggests the coexistence of local prograde and retrograde flows, which may correspond to those observed by Pioneer Venus below 10 km altitude. The probability distributions of surface wind speed V during the convective adjustment have a similar form in different simulations, with a sharp peak around ∼0.1 m s-1 and a bulge developing on the flank of the probability distribution. This flank bulge is associated with the most active convection, which has a probability distribution with a peak at the wind speed 1.5-times greater than the Weibull fitting parameter c during the convective adjustment. The Weibull distribution P(> V) (= exp[-(V/c)k]) with best-estimate coefficients of Lorenz (2016) is reproduced during convective adjustments induced by a potential energy of ∼7 × 107 J m-2, which is calculated from the difference in total potential energy between initially unstable and neutral states. The maximum vertical convective heat flux magnitude is proportional to the potential energy of the convective adjustment in the experiments with the initial unstable-layer thickness altered. The present work suggests that convective adjustment is a promising process for producing the wind structure with occasionally generating surface winds of ∼1 m s-1 and retrograde wind patches.

  16. Observation of Butterfly Pitch Angle Distributions at L<4 during the March 2015 geomagnetic storm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kanekal, S. G.; Baker, D. N.; Jones, A. D.; Sibeck, D. G.; Elkington, S. R.; Jaynes, A. N.; Li, X.; Zhao, H.; Claudepierre, S. G.; Turner, D. L.

    2016-12-01

    The geomagnetic storm of March 2015 was the largest one observed during the past decade. Observations by the Relativistic Electron and Proton Telescope and the Magnetic Electron and Ion Sensors on board NASA's Van Allen Probes provided a detailed picture of the electron response during this storm covering electron energies from 10's of keV to 10 MeV. High quality measurements of electron spectra and pitch angle distributions revealed the existence of butterfly type pitch angle distributions deep within the magnetosphere (Lbelts.

  17. A microcomputer program for energy assessment and aggregation using the triangular probability distribution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crovelli, R.A.; Balay, R.H.

    1991-01-01

    A general risk-analysis method was developed for petroleum-resource assessment and other applications. The triangular probability distribution is used as a model with an analytic aggregation methodology based on probability theory rather than Monte-Carlo simulation. Among the advantages of the analytic method are its computational speed and flexibility, and the saving of time and cost on a microcomputer. The input into the model consists of a set of components (e.g. geologic provinces) and, for each component, three potential resource estimates: minimum, most likely (mode), and maximum. Assuming a triangular probability distribution, the mean, standard deviation, and seven fractiles (F100, F95, F75, F50, F25, F5, and F0) are computed for each component, where for example, the probability of more than F95 is equal to 0.95. The components are aggregated by combining the means, standard deviations, and respective fractiles under three possible siutations (1) perfect positive correlation, (2) complete independence, and (3) any degree of dependence between these two polar situations. A package of computer programs named the TRIAGG system was written in the Turbo Pascal 4.0 language for performing the analytic probabilistic methodology. The system consists of a program for processing triangular probability distribution assessments and aggregations, and a separate aggregation routine for aggregating aggregations. The user's documentation and program diskette of the TRIAGG system are available from USGS Open File Services. TRIAGG requires an IBM-PC/XT/AT compatible microcomputer with 256kbyte of main memory, MS-DOS 3.1 or later, either two diskette drives or a fixed disk, and a 132 column printer. A graphics adapter and color display are optional. ?? 1991.

  18. An Undersea Mining Microseism Source Location Algorithm Considering Wave Velocity Probability Distribution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Furui Du

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The traditional mine microseism locating methods are mainly based on the assumption that the wave velocity is uniform through the space, which leads to some errors for the assumption goes against the laws of nature. In this paper, the wave velocity is regarded as a random variable, and the probability distribution information of the wave velocity is fused into the traditional locating method. This paper puts forwards the microseism source location method for the undersea mining on condition of the probability distribution of the wave velocity and comes up with the solving process of Monte Carlo. In addition, based on the simulated results of the Monte Carlo method, the space is divided into three areas: the most possible area (area I, the possible area (area II, and the small probability area (area III. Attached to corresponding mathematical formulations, spherical models and cylindrical models in different areas are, respectively, built according to whether the source is in the sensor arrays. Both the examples and the actual applications show that (1 the method of microseism source location in this paper can highly improve the accuracy of the microseism monitoring, especially for the source beyond the sensor arrays, and (2 the space-dividing method based on occurrence possibilities of the source can recognize and sweep the hidden dangers for it predicts the probable location range of the source efficiently, while the traditional method cannot.

  19. Assessing protein conformational sampling methods based on bivariate lag-distributions of backbone angles

    KAUST Repository

    Maadooliat, Mehdi

    2012-08-27

    Despite considerable progress in the past decades, protein structure prediction remains one of the major unsolved problems in computational biology. Angular-sampling-based methods have been extensively studied recently due to their ability to capture the continuous conformational space of protein structures. The literature has focused on using a variety of parametric models of the sequential dependencies between angle pairs along the protein chains. In this article, we present a thorough review of angular-sampling-based methods by assessing three main questions: What is the best distribution type to model the protein angles? What is a reasonable number of components in a mixture model that should be considered to accurately parameterize the joint distribution of the angles? and What is the order of the local sequence-structure dependency that should be considered by a prediction method? We assess the model fits for different methods using bivariate lag-distributions of the dihedral/planar angles. Moreover, the main information across the lags can be extracted using a technique called Lag singular value decomposition (LagSVD), which considers the joint distribution of the dihedral/planar angles over different lags using a nonparametric approach and monitors the behavior of the lag-distribution of the angles using singular value decomposition. As a result, we developed graphical tools and numerical measurements to compare and evaluate the performance of different model fits. Furthermore, we developed a web-tool (http://www.stat.tamu. edu/~madoliat/LagSVD) that can be used to produce informative animations. © The Author 2012. Published by Oxford University Press.

  20. Rank-Ordered Multifractal Analysis (ROMA of probability distributions in fluid turbulence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. C. Wu

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Rank-Ordered Multifractal Analysis (ROMA was introduced by Chang and Wu (2008 to describe the multifractal characteristic of intermittent events. The procedure provides a natural connection between the rank-ordered spectrum and the idea of one-parameter scaling for monofractals. This technique has successfully been applied to MHD turbulence simulations and turbulence data observed in various space plasmas. In this paper, the technique is applied to the probability distributions in the inertial range of the turbulent fluid flow, as given in the vast Johns Hopkins University (JHU turbulence database. In addition, a new way of finding the continuous ROMA spectrum and the scaled probability distribution function (PDF simultaneously is introduced.

  1. An experimental study of the surface elevation probability distribution and statistics of wind-generated waves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, N. E.; Long, S. R.

    1980-01-01

    Laboratory experiments were performed to measure the surface elevation probability density function and associated statistical properties for a wind-generated wave field. The laboratory data along with some limited field data were compared. The statistical properties of the surface elevation were processed for comparison with the results derived from the Longuet-Higgins (1963) theory. It is found that, even for the highly non-Gaussian cases, the distribution function proposed by Longuet-Higgins still gives good approximations.

  2. Reparametrization-covariant theory for on-line learning of probability distributions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aida, T

    2001-11-01

    We discuss the on-line learning of probability distributions in a reparametrization covariant formulation. Reparametrization covariance plays an essential role not only to respect an intrinsic property of "information" but also for pattern recognition problems. We can obtain an optimal on-line learning algorithm with reparametrization invariance, where the conformal gauge connects a covariant formulation with a noncovariant one in a natural way.

  3. The leaf angle distribution of natural plant populations: assessing the canopy with a novel software tool.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Müller-Linow, Mark; Pinto-Espinosa, Francisco; Scharr, Hanno; Rascher, Uwe

    2015-01-01

    Three-dimensional canopies form complex architectures with temporally and spatially changing leaf orientations. Variations in canopy structure are linked to canopy function and they occur within the scope of genetic variability as well as a reaction to environmental factors like light, water and nutrient supply, and stress. An important key measure to characterize these structural properties is the leaf angle distribution, which in turn requires knowledge on the 3-dimensional single leaf surface. Despite a large number of 3-d sensors and methods only a few systems are applicable for fast and routine measurements in plants and natural canopies. A suitable approach is stereo imaging, which combines depth and color information that allows for easy segmentation of green leaf material and the extraction of plant traits, such as leaf angle distribution. We developed a software package, which provides tools for the quantification of leaf surface properties within natural canopies via 3-d reconstruction from stereo images. Our approach includes a semi-automatic selection process of single leaves and different modes of surface characterization via polygon smoothing or surface model fitting. Based on the resulting surface meshes leaf angle statistics are computed on the whole-leaf level or from local derivations. We include a case study to demonstrate the functionality of our software. 48 images of small sugar beet populations (4 varieties) have been analyzed on the base of their leaf angle distribution in order to investigate seasonal, genotypic and fertilization effects on leaf angle distributions. We could show that leaf angle distributions change during the course of the season with all varieties having a comparable development. Additionally, different varieties had different leaf angle orientation that could be separated in principle component analysis. In contrast nitrogen treatment had no effect on leaf angles. We show that a stereo imaging setup together with the

  4. Ruin Probabilities and Aggregrate Claims Distributions for Shot Noise Cox Processes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Albrecher, H.; Asmussen, Søren

    We consider a risk process Rt where the claim arrival process is a superposition of a homogeneous Poisson process and a Cox process with a Poisson shot noise intensity process, capturing the effect of sudden increases of the claim intensity due to external events. The distribution of the aggregate...... claim size is investigated under these assumptions. For both light-tailed and heavy-tailed claim size distributions, asymptotic estimates for infinite-time and finite-time ruin probabilities are derived. Moreover, we discuss an extension of the model to an adaptive premium rule that is dynamically...

  5. Asymptotic gap probability distributions of the Gaussian unitary ensembles and Jacobi unitary ensembles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shulin Lyu

    2018-01-01

    The σ function, namely, the derivative of the log of the smallest eigenvalue distributions of the finite-n LUE or the JUE, satisfies the Jimbo–Miwa–Okamoto σ form of PV and PVI, although in the shift Jacobi case, with the weight xα(1−xβ, the β parameter does not show up in the equation. We also obtain the asymptotic expansions for the smallest eigenvalue distributions of the Laguerre unitary and Jacobi unitary ensembles after appropriate double scalings, and obtained the constants in the asymptotic expansion of the gap probabilities, expressed in term of the Barnes G-function valuated at special point.

  6. Intermittency in the solar wind turbulence through probability distribution functions of fluctuations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sorriso-Valvo, Luca; Carbone, Vincenzo; Veltri, Pierluigi; Consolini, Giuseppe; Bruno, Roberto

    Intermittency in fluid turbulence can be emphasized through the analysis of Probability Distribution Functions (PDF) for velocity fluctuations, which display a strong non-gaussian behavior at small scales. Castaing et al. (1990) have introduced the idea that this behavior can be represented, in the framework of a multiplicative cascade model, by a convolution of gaussians whose variances is distributed according to a log-normal distribution. In this letter we have tried to test this conjecture on the MHD solar wind turbulence by performing a fit of the PDF of the bulk speed and magnetic field intensity fluctuations calculated in the solar wind, with the model. This fit allows us to calculate a parameter λ² depending on the scale, which represents the width of the log-normal distribution of the variances of the gaussians. The physical implications of the obtained values of the parameter as well as of its scaling law are finally discussed.

  7. Probability distribution of pitting corrosion depth and rate in underground pipelines: A Monte Carlo study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Caleyo, F. [Departamento de Ingenieria Metalurgica, ESIQIE, IPN, UPALM Edif. 7, Zacatenco, 07738 Mexico, D.F. (Mexico)], E-mail: fcaleyo@gmail.com; Velazquez, J.C. [Departamento de Ingenieria Metalurgica, ESIQIE, IPN, UPALM Edif. 7, Zacatenco, 07738 Mexico, D.F. (Mexico); Valor, A. [Facultad de Fisica, Universidad de La Habana, San Lazaro y L, Vedado, 10400, La Habana (Cuba); Hallen, J.M. [Departamento de Ingenieria Metalurgica, ESIQIE, IPN, UPALM Edif. 7, Zacatenco, 07738 Mexico, D.F. (Mexico)

    2009-09-15

    The probability distributions of external-corrosion pit depth and pit growth rate were investigated in underground pipelines using Monte Carlo simulations. The study combines a predictive pit growth model developed by the authors with the observed distributions of the model variables in a range of soils. Depending on the pipeline age, any of the three maximal extreme value distributions, i.e. Weibull, Frechet or Gumbel, can arise as the best fit to the pitting depth and rate data. The Frechet distribution best fits the corrosion data for long exposure periods. This can be explained by considering the long-term stabilization of the diffusion-controlled pit growth. The findings of the study provide reliability analysts with accurate information regarding the stochastic characteristics of the pitting damage in underground pipelines.

  8. The limiting conditional probability distribution in a stochastic model of T cell repertoire maintenance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stirk, Emily R; Lythe, Grant; van den Berg, Hugo A; Hurst, Gareth A D; Molina-París, Carmen

    2010-04-01

    The limiting conditional probability distribution (LCD) has been much studied in the field of mathematical biology, particularly in the context of epidemiology and the persistence of epidemics. However, it has not yet been applied to the immune system. One of the characteristic features of the T cell repertoire is its diversity. This diversity declines in old age, whence the concepts of extinction and persistence are also relevant to the immune system. In this paper we model T cell repertoire maintenance by means of a continuous-time birth and death process on the positive integers, where the origin is an absorbing state. We show that eventual extinction is guaranteed. The late-time behaviour of the process before extinction takes place is modelled by the LCD, which we prove always exists for the process studied here. In most cases, analytic expressions for the LCD cannot be computed but the probability distribution may be approximated by means of the stationary probability distributions of two related processes. We show how these approximations are related to the LCD of the original process and use them to study the LCD in two special cases. We also make use of the large N expansion to derive a further approximation to the LCD. The accuracy of the various approximations is then analysed. (c) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Probability distribution for the Gaussian curvature of the zero level surface of a random function

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hannay, J. H.

    2018-04-01

    A rather natural construction for a smooth random surface in space is the level surface of value zero, or ‘nodal’ surface f(x,y,z)  =  0, of a (real) random function f; the interface between positive and negative regions of the function. A physically significant local attribute at a point of a curved surface is its Gaussian curvature (the product of its principal curvatures) because, when integrated over the surface it gives the Euler characteristic. Here the probability distribution for the Gaussian curvature at a random point on the nodal surface f  =  0 is calculated for a statistically homogeneous (‘stationary’) and isotropic zero mean Gaussian random function f. Capitalizing on the isotropy, a ‘fixer’ device for axes supplies the probability distribution directly as a multiple integral. Its evaluation yields an explicit algebraic function with a simple average. Indeed, this average Gaussian curvature has long been known. For a non-zero level surface instead of the nodal one, the probability distribution is not fully tractable, but is supplied as an integral expression.

  10. The probability distribution of intergranular stress corrosion cracking life for sensitized 304 stainless steels in high temperature, high purity water

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Akashi, Masatsune; Kenjyo, Takao; Matsukura, Shinji; Kawamoto, Teruaki

    1984-01-01

    In order to discuss the probability distribution of intergranular stress corrsion carcking life for sensitized 304 stainless steels, a series of the creviced bent beem (CBB) and the uni-axial constant load tests were carried out in oxygenated high temperature, high purity water. The following concludions were resulted; (1) The initiation process of intergranular stress corrosion cracking has been assumed to be approximated by the Poisson stochastic process, based on the CBB test results. (2) The probability distribution of intergranular stress corrosion cracking life may consequently be approximated by the exponential probability distribution. (3) The experimental data could be fitted to the exponential probability distribution. (author)

  11. Geometrically distributed one-dimensional photonic crystals for light-reflection in all angles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alagappan, G; Wu, P

    2009-07-06

    We demonstrate that a series of one-dimensional photonic crystals made of any dielectric materials, with the periods are distributed in a geometrical progression of a common ratio, r light of any spectral range. If an omni-directional reflection is desired for all polarizations and for all incident angles smaller than thetao, then r light reflection.

  12. influence of off-take angles on flow distribution at concave channel

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    user

    hydraulic laboratory of the Civil. Engineering Department, University of. Nigeria, Nsukka in Enugu State of Nigeria. This study concentrated mainly on the investigation of the discharge distribution patterns at concave channel bifurcation by varying the off-take angles and the main channel flow rates. Four flow rates with.

  13. Zenith-angle distributions of atmospheric muons above 20 GeV

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Decoster, R.J.; Stevenson, M.L.; Breakstone, A.; Flatte, S.M.

    1975-01-01

    The results of a magnetic-spectrometer experiment at ground level with optical spark chambers, scintillator hodoscope trigger and an air-gap magnet, are reported to given an evaluation of the zenith-angle distribution of the atmospheric muons above 20 GeV. An automatic flying spot digitizer, the Hummingbird, was used

  14. Determination of size distribution of barley starch granules using low angle laser light scattering

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Psota, V.; Bohacenko, I.; Pytela, J.; Vydrova, H.; Chmelik, J.

    2000-01-01

    LALLS method (Low Angle Laser Light Scattering) was used to determine the size distribution of starch granules in caryopses of two varieties of malting barley (Hordeum vulgare). Two size fractions of granules were proved similarly to results obtained by other methods. The variety Kompakt contained significantly more large starch granules than the variety Novum. The LALLS method could be used as an accurate, reproducible and quick method for determination of starch granule size distribution

  15. Estimating conditional probability of volcanic flows for forecasting event distribution and making evacuation decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stefanescu, E. R.; Patra, A.; Sheridan, M. F.; Cordoba, G.

    2012-04-01

    event. Logistic regression - Here, we define A as a discrete r.v., while B is a continuous one. P(B) represents the probability of having a flow≥ hcritical at location B, while P(A) represents the probability of having a flow or non-flow at A. Bayes analysis - At this stage of the analysis we consider only the r.v. A, where P(A) represents the probability of having a flow≥ hcritical at location A. We are interested in observing how the probability of having a flow≥ hcritical at location A is changing when data from the model is taken into consideration. We assume a Beta prior distribution for P(A) and compute P(A/data) using Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) approach. Bayesian network for causal relationships - Here, we are interested in more than two critical locations and we are able to incorporate using a directed acyclic graph the causal relationship between all the chosen locations. Marginal probabilities along with the joint probability associated with an event based on the "causal links" between variables.

  16. Simulation of Burn Probabilities and Fire Size Distributions for the Western United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Finney, M.

    2009-04-01

    This simulation research was conducted on behalf of five U.S. land management agencies in order to develop a fire risk assessment system for the contiguous land area of the United States. The requirements included generating burn probabilities, characterizing fire behavior variation, and providing a means to evaluate sensitivity to both fire suppression and fuel treatment effects. This paper presents the methods and results of wildland fire size distributions and burn probabilities that were simulated for large units of land that together comprised the entire western United States. The outputs of these simulations are compared with historic data from Federal lands. The methods involved simulating fire ignition and growth for 10,000 to 20,000 "years" of artificial weather. The fire growth simulations were based on previously published methods (Finney 1998, 2002) and, when run repeatedly with different weather and ignition locations, produce fire behavior distributions at each landscape location (e.g. a "cell"). The artificial weather was generated using 1) a time-series analysis of recorded fire danger rating indices for each land unit that served as a proxy of daily and seasonal variation in fuel moisture, and 2) distributions of wind speed and direction from weather records in each unit. The simulations also required spatial data on fuel structure and topography which were provided by the LandFire project for the study area (http://www.landfire.gov). The occurrence and frequency of ignitions were simulated stochastically using empirical relationships that predicted the probability of large fire occurrence from the fire danger rating index. Fire suppression was represented using a modeling analysis of 453 large fires that was used to predict the probability of fire containment (by suppression forces) based on independent predictors of fire growth rates and fuel type. Fuel treatments were implemented into the fuel structure of the landscape to evaluate how these

  17. Analytical models of probability distribution and excess noise factor of solid state photomultiplier signals with crosstalk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vinogradov, S.

    2012-01-01

    Silicon Photomultipliers (SiPM), also called Solid State Photomultipliers (SSPM), are based on Geiger mode avalanche breakdown that is limited by a strong negative feedback. An SSPM can detect and resolve single photons due to the high gain and ultra-low excess noise of avalanche multiplication in this mode. Crosstalk and afterpulsing processes associated with the high gain introduce specific excess noise and deteriorate the photon number resolution of the SSPM. The probabilistic features of these processes are widely studied because of its significance for the SSPM design, characterization, optimization and application, but the process modeling is mostly based on Monte Carlo simulations and numerical methods. In this study, crosstalk is considered to be a branching Poisson process, and analytical models of probability distribution and excess noise factor (ENF) of SSPM signals based on the Borel distribution as an advance on the geometric distribution models are presented and discussed. The models are found to be in a good agreement with the experimental probability distributions for dark counts and a few photon spectrums in a wide range of fired pixels number as well as with observed super-linear behavior of crosstalk ENF.

  18. Research on Energy-Saving Design of Overhead Travelling Crane Camber Based on Probability Load Distribution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tong Yifei

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Crane is a mechanical device, used widely to move materials in modern production. It is reported that the energy consumptions of China are at least 5–8 times of other developing countries. Thus, energy consumption becomes an unavoidable topic. There are several reasons influencing the energy loss, and the camber of the girder is the one not to be neglected. In this paper, the problem of the deflections induced by the moving payload in the girder of overhead travelling crane is examined. The evaluation of a camber giving a counterdeflection of the girder is proposed in order to get minimum energy consumptions for trolley to move along a nonstraight support. To this aim, probabilistic payload distributions are considered instead of fixed or rated loads involved in other researches. Taking 50/10 t bridge crane as a research object, the probability loads are determined by analysis of load distribution density functions. According to load distribution, camber design under different probability loads is discussed in detail as well as energy consumptions distribution. The research results provide the design reference of reasonable camber to obtain the least energy consumption for climbing corresponding to different P0; thus energy-saving design can be achieved.

  19. Topologically appropriate coordinates for (V{sub zz}, η) joint probability distributions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Evenson, William E., E-mail: bill@evenson.ch; Adams, M.; Bunker, Austin; Hodges, Jeffery A.; Matheson, P. L., E-mail: phil.matheson@uvu.edu; Park, Tyler; Stufflebeam, Michael; Sullivan, Francis P. [Utah Valley University, Department of Physics (United States); Zacate, M. O. [Northern Kentucky University, Department of Physics and Geology (United States)

    2016-12-15

    Inhomogeneous broadening (IHB) of hyperfine interactions in materials arises from a distribution of electric field gradients (EFGs) due to randomly distributed defects contributing non-uniformly to the EFG at probe sites. Hyperfine experiments reflect the inhomogeneous distribution of defects through the joint probability distribution function (PDF) of V{sub zz} and η determined by the defect concentration, crystal structure, and defect sites in the crystal. Czjzek showed how to choose coordinates in the (V{sub zz}, η) plane that are consistent with the physical constraints and ordering convention for these EFG parameters. Here we show how to transform to a new set of coordinates that decreases the distortion inherent in Czjzek’s representation. These new coordinates allow one to express the joint PDF for random distributions of defects in a form reasonably approximated by the product of two independent marginal distributions. This paper focuses on these topologically appropriate coordinates, with simple examples drawn from Czjzek’s work and from our simulations of point defects in cubic lattices as well as random amorphous distributions of defects. Detailed simulations have been carried out for IHB in cubic structures and point charge models relevant to perturbed angular correlation (PAC) experiments.

  20. Topologically appropriate coordinates for ( V z z , η) joint probability distributions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evenson, William E.; Adams, M.; Bunker, Austin; Hodges, Jeffery A.; Matheson, P. L.; Park, Tyler; Stufflebeam, Michael; Sullivan, Francis P.; Zacate, M. O.

    2016-12-01

    Inhomogeneous broadening (IHB) of hyperfine interactions in materials arises from a distribution of electric field gradients (EFGs) due to randomly distributed defects contributing non-uniformly to the EFG at probe sites. Hyperfine experiments reflect the inhomogeneous distribution of defects through the joint probability distribution function (PDF) of V z z and η determined by the defect concentration, crystal structure, and defect sites in the crystal. Czjzek showed how to choose coordinates in the ( V z z , η) plane that are consistent with the physical constraints and ordering convention for these EFG parameters. Here we show how to transform to a new set of coordinates that decreases the distortion inherent in Czjzek's representation. These new coordinates allow one to express the joint PDF for random distributions of defects in a form reasonably approximated by the product of two independent marginal distributions. This paper focuses on these topologically appropriate coordinates, with simple examples drawn from Czjzek's work and from our simulations of point defects in cubic lattices as well as random amorphous distributions of defects. Detailed simulations have been carried out for IHB in cubic structures and point charge models relevant to perturbed angular correlation (PAC) experiments.

  1. Effect of EMIC Wave Normal Angle Distribution on Relativistic Electron Scattering in Outer RB

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khazanov, G. V.; Gamayunov, K. V.

    2007-01-01

    We present the equatorial and bounce average pitch angle diffusion coefficients for scattering of relativistic electrons by the H+ mode of EMIC waves. Both the model (prescribed) and self consistent distributions over the wave normal angle are considered. The main results of our calculation can be summarized as follows: First, in comparison with field aligned waves, the intermediate and highly oblique waves reduce the pitch angle range subject to diffusion, and strongly suppress the scattering rate for low energy electrons (E less than 2 MeV). Second, for electron energies greater than 5 MeV, the |n| = 1 resonances operate only in a narrow region at large pitch-angles, and despite their greatest contribution in case of field aligned waves, cannot cause electron diffusion into the loss cone. For those energies, oblique waves at |n| greater than 1 resonances are more effective, extending the range of pitch angle diffusion down to the loss cone boundary, and increasing diffusion at small pitch angles by orders of magnitude.

  2. Finding probability distributions for electric field gradient components with inhomogeneous broadening in perturbed angular correlation spectroscopy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Tyler; Adams, Mike; Bunker, Austin; Hodges, Jeffery; Stufflebeam, Michael; Evenson, William; Matheson, Phil; Zacate, Matthew

    2009-10-01

    Materials contain defects, which affect crystal properties such as damping of the correlation signal,G2(t), in time and broadening of the frequency spectrum in perturbed angular correlation (PAC) experiments. We attribute this inhomogeneous broadening (IHB) to the random static defects that produce a distribution of electric field gradients (EFGs). Our goal is to find a relationship between the amount of broadening and the concentration of defects. After simulating the EFGs from random configurations of defects, we map our results from the Vzz-Vxx plane to a coordinate system optimized for the EFG distribution through a Czjzek transformation, followed by a conformal mapping. From histograms in this space, we can define probability distribution functions with parameters that vary according to defect concentration. This allows us to calculate the broadened G2(t) spectrum for any concentration, and, in reverse, identify concentrations given a broadened G2(t) spectrum.

  3. New method for extracting tumors in PET/CT images based on the probability distribution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nitta, Shuhei; Hontani, Hidekata; Hukami, Tadanori

    2006-01-01

    In this report, we propose a method for extracting tumors from PET/CT images by referring to the probability distribution of pixel values in the PET image. In the proposed method, first, the organs that normally take up fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) (e.g., the liver, kidneys, and brain) are extracted. Then, the tumors are extracted from the images. The distribution of pixel values in PET images differs in each region of the body. Therefore, the threshold for detecting tumors is adaptively determined by referring to the distribution. We applied the proposed method to 37 cases and evaluated its performance. This report also presents the results of experiments comparing the proposed method and another method in which the pixel values are normalized for extracting tumors. (author)

  4. The Effects of Either Height of Bellows Ends on the Stress Distribution according to Rotation Angles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kim Jin-Bong

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available As analysis research, the effect of either height of bellows ends on the stress distribution has been proposed in the study. Rotation angle only is considered as a boundary condition. FEM solution for a u-shaped flexible tube under the action of angle of rotation is obtained. The design factor, convolution height of bellows ends, is considered for the simulation. The analysis is performed using the finite element analysis program. The maximum von-Mises stress and its reduction rate according to the height of bellows ends is compared respectively.

  5. Computational analysis of the spatial distribution of mitotic spindle angles in mouse developing airway

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Nan; Marshall, Wallace F.

    2013-02-01

    Investigating the spatial information of cellular processes in tissues during mouse embryo development is one of the major technical challenges in development biology. Many imaging methods are still limited to the volumes of tissue due to tissue opacity, light scattering and the availability of advanced imaging tools. For analyzing the mitotic spindle angle distribution in developing mouse airway epithelium, we determined spindle angles in mitotic epithelial cells on serial sections of whole airway of mouse embryonic lungs. We then developed a computational image analysis to obtain spindle angle distribution in three dimensional airway reconstructed from the data obtained from all serial sections. From this study, we were able to understand how mitotic spindle angles are distributed in a whole airway tube. This analysis provides a potentially fast, simple and inexpensive alternative method to quantitatively analyze cellular process at subcellular resolution. Furthermore, this analysis is not limited to the size of tissues, which allows to obtain three dimensional and high resolution information of cellular processes in cell populations deeper inside intact organs.

  6. Investigation of photon detection probability dependence of SPADnet-I digital photon counter as a function of angle of incidence, wavelength and polarization

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Játékos, Balázs, E-mail: jatekosb@eik.bme.hu; Ujhelyi, Ferenc; Lőrincz, Emőke; Erdei, Gábor

    2015-01-01

    SPADnet-I is a prototype, fully digital, high spatial and temporal resolution silicon photon counter, based on standard CMOS imaging technology, developed by the SPADnet consortium. Being a novel device, the exact dependence of photon detection probability (PDP) of SPADnet-I was not known as a function of angle of incidence, wavelength and polarization of the incident light. Our targeted application area of this sensor is next generation PET detector modules, where they will be used along with LYSO:Ce scintillators. Hence, we performed an extended investigation of PDP in a wide range of angle of incidence (0° to 80°), concentrating onto a 60 nm broad wavelength interval around the characteristic emission peak (λ=420 nm) of the scintillator. In the case where the sensor was optically coupled to a scintillator, our experiments showed a notable dependence of PDP on angle, polarization and wavelength. The sensor has an average PDP of approximately 30% from 0° to 60° angle of incidence, where it starts to drop rapidly. The PDP turned out not to be polarization dependent below 30°. If the sensor is used without a scintillator (i.e. the light source is in air), the polarization dependence is much less expressed, it begins only from 50°.

  7. Numerical study of traffic flow considering the probability density distribution of the traffic density

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, L. M.; Zhu, H. B.; Zhang, N. X.

    The probability density distribution of the traffic density is analyzed based on the empirical data. It is found that the beta distribution can fit the result obtained from the measured traffic density perfectly. Then a modified traffic model is proposed to simulate the microscopic traffic flow, in which the probability density distribution of the traffic density is taken into account. The model also contains the behavior of drivers’ speed adaptation by taking into account the driving behavior difference and the dynamic headway. Accompanied by presenting the flux-density diagrams, the velocity evolution diagrams and the spatial-temporal profiles of vehicles are also given. The synchronized flow phase and the wide moving jam phase are indicated, which is the challenge for the cellular automata traffic model. Furthermore the phenomenon of the high speed car-following is exhibited, which has been observed in the measured data previously. The results set demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model in detecting the complicated dynamic phenomena of the traffic flow.

  8. Measuring sensitivity in pharmacoeconomic studies. Refining point sensitivity and range sensitivity by incorporating probability distributions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nuijten, M J

    1999-07-01

    The aim of the present study is to describe a refinement of a previously presented method, based on the concept of point sensitivity, to deal with uncertainty in economic studies. The original method was refined by the incorporation of probability distributions which allow a more accurate assessment of the level of uncertainty in the model. In addition, a bootstrap method was used to create a probability distribution for a fixed input variable based on a limited number of data points. The original method was limited in that the sensitivity measurement was based on a uniform distribution of the variables and that the overall sensitivity measure was based on a subjectively chosen range which excludes the impact of values outside the range on the overall sensitivity. The concepts of the refined method were illustrated using a Markov model of depression. The application of the refined method substantially changed the ranking of the most sensitive variables compared with the original method. The response rate became the most sensitive variable instead of the 'per diem' for hospitalisation. The refinement of the original method yields sensitivity outcomes, which greater reflect the real uncertainty in economic studies.

  9. Impact of spike train autostructure on probability distribution of joint spike events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pipa, Gordon; Grün, Sonja; van Vreeswijk, Carl

    2013-05-01

    The discussion whether temporally coordinated spiking activity really exists and whether it is relevant has been heated over the past few years. To investigate this issue, several approaches have been taken to determine whether synchronized events occur significantly above chance, that is, whether they occur more often than expected if the neurons fire independently. Most investigations ignore or destroy the autostructure of the spiking activity of individual cells or assume Poissonian spiking as a model. Such methods that ignore the autostructure can significantly bias the coincidence statistics. Here, we study the influence of the autostructure on the probability distribution of coincident spiking events between tuples of mutually independent non-Poisson renewal processes. In particular, we consider two types of renewal processes that were suggested as appropriate models of experimental spike trains: a gamma and a log-normal process. For a gamma process, we characterize the shape of the distribution analytically with the Fano factor (FFc). In addition, we perform Monte Carlo estimations to derive the full shape of the distribution and the probability for false positives if a different process type is assumed as was actually present. We also determine how manipulations of such spike trains, here dithering, used for the generation of surrogate data change the distribution of coincident events and influence the significance estimation. We find, first, that the width of the coincidence count distribution and its FFc depend critically and in a nontrivial way on the detailed properties of the structure of the spike trains as characterized by the coefficient of variation CV. Second, the dependence of the FFc on the CV is complex and mostly nonmonotonic. Third, spike dithering, even if as small as a fraction of the interspike interval, can falsify the inference on coordinated firing.

  10. Discrete coherent states and probability distributions in finite-dimensional spaces

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Galetti, D.; Marchiolli, M.A.

    1995-06-01

    Operator bases are discussed in connection with the construction of phase space representatives of operators in finite-dimensional spaces and their properties are presented. It is also shown how these operator bases allow for the construction of a finite harmonic oscillator-like coherent state. Creation and annihilation operators for the Fock finite-dimensional space are discussed and their expressions in terms of the operator bases are explicitly written. The relevant finite-dimensional probability distributions are obtained and their limiting behavior for an infinite-dimensional space are calculated which agree with the well know results. (author). 20 refs, 2 figs.

  11. On the Meta Distribution of Coverage Probability in Uplink Cellular Networks

    KAUST Repository

    Elsawy, Hesham

    2017-04-07

    This letter studies the meta distribution of coverage probability (CP), within a stochastic geometry framework, for cellular uplink transmission with fractional path-loss inversion power control. Using the widely accepted Poisson point process (PPP) for modeling the spatial locations of base stations (BSs), we obtain the percentiles of users that achieve a target uplink CP over an arbitrary, but fixed, realization of the PPP. To this end, the effect of the users activity factor (p) and the path-loss compensation factor () on the uplink performance are analyzed. The results show that decreasing p and/or increasing reduce the CP variation around the spatially averaged value.

  12. Exact probability distribution function for multifractal random walk models of stocks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saakian, D. B.; Martirosyan, A.; Hu, Chin-Kun; Struzik, Z. R.

    2011-07-01

    We investigate the multifractal random walk (MRW) model, popular in the modelling of stock fluctuations in the financial market. The exact probability distribution function (PDF) is derived by employing methods proposed in the derivation of correlation functions in string theory, including the analytical extension of Selberg integrals. We show that the recent results by Y. V. Fyodorov, P. Le Doussal and A. Rosso obtained with the logarithmic Random Energy Model (REM) model are sufficient to derive exact formulas for the PDF of the log returns in the MRW model.

  13. Relationship between quadriceps angle (Q) and plantar pressure distribution in football players.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Braz, Rafael G; Carvalho, Gustavo A

    2010-01-01

    To determine whether there is an association between the Q-angle (Q) and the distribution of plantar pressure in football players, and to compare the characteristics of these athletes with non-practitioners of this sport. 121 male participants were selected: 50 football practitioners (FP) and 71 non-practitioners (NP). We concurrently evaluated the Q-angle and the plantar pressure through the software of postural assessment (SPA) and the F-Mat System, respectively. To verify the correlation between the Q-angle and peak pressure values in four segments of the foot (medial and lateral forefoot, medium-foot and hind-foot), the Pearson coefficient (r) for parametric analysis was used. The independent t-test was used to compare these variables between the groups. Data normality was verified by the skewness values, adopting a significance level of 5%. A negative and weak correlation was found (r=-0.32) between the Q-angle and the plantar pressure in the right medium-foot. The groups differed with regards to the right Q-angle (11.36º in FP versus 13.80º in NP) and the left Q-angle (11.03º in FP versus 13.96º in NP). Plantar pressure was also different between the groups, with FP showing higher mean values for the right side and for the left side of the forefoot (0.77 kg/cm² in FP versus 0.63 kg/cm² in NP, and 0.65 kg/cm² in FP versus 0.54 kg/cm² in NP, respectively). However, mean peak pressure values for the left medium-foot were higher among NP (0.37 kg/cm² in FP versus 0.46 kg/cm² in NP). There was no evidence of an association between the Q-angle and the distribution of plantar pressure in FP. The athletes showed reduced Q-angle values and higher mean peak pressure values for the right and left aspects of the forefoot, suggesting a varus malalignment and a supine distribution of plantar bases.

  14. Study of the SEMG probability distribution of the paretic tibialis anterior muscle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cherniz, AnalIa S; Bonell, Claudia E; Tabernig, Carolina B

    2007-01-01

    The surface electromyographic signal is a stochastic signal that has been modeled as a Gaussian process, with a zero mean. It has been experimentally proved that this probability distribution can be adjusted with less error to a Laplacian type distribution. The selection of estimators for the detection of changes in the amplitude of the muscular signal depends, among other things, on the type of distribution. In the case of subjects with lesions to the superior motor neuron, the lack of central control affects the muscular tone, the force and the patterns of muscular movement involved in activities such as the gait cycle. In this work, the distribution types of the SEMG signal amplitudes of the tibialis anterior muscle are evaluated during gait, both in two healthy subjects and in two hemiparetic ones in order to select the estimators that best characterize them. It was observed that the Laplacian distribution function would be the one that best adjusts to the experimental data in the studied subjects, although this largely depends on the subject and on the data segment analyzed

  15. Probability distribution functions for intermittent scrape-off layer plasma fluctuations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Theodorsen, A.; Garcia, O. E.

    2018-03-01

    A stochastic model for intermittent fluctuations in the scrape-off layer of magnetically confined plasmas has been constructed based on a super-position of uncorrelated pulses arriving according to a Poisson process. In the most common applications of the model, the pulse amplitudes are assumed exponentially distributed, supported by conditional averaging of large-amplitude fluctuations in experimental measurement data. This basic assumption has two potential limitations. First, statistical analysis of measurement data using conditional averaging only reveals the tail of the amplitude distribution to be exponentially distributed. Second, exponentially distributed amplitudes leads to a positive definite signal which cannot capture fluctuations in for example electric potential and radial velocity. Assuming pulse amplitudes which are not positive definite often make finding a closed form for the probability density function (PDF) difficult, even if the characteristic function remains relatively simple. Thus estimating model parameters requires an approach based on the characteristic function, not the PDF. In this contribution, the effect of changing the amplitude distribution on the moments, PDF and characteristic function of the process is investigated and a parameter estimation method using the empirical characteristic function is presented and tested on synthetically generated data. This proves valuable for describing intermittent fluctuations of all plasma parameters in the boundary region of magnetized plasmas.

  16. Probability distribution and statistical properties of spherically compensated cosmic regions in ΛCDM cosmology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alimi, Jean-Michel; de Fromont, Paul

    2018-04-01

    The statistical properties of cosmic structures are well known to be strong probes for cosmology. In particular, several studies tried to use the cosmic void counting number to obtain tight constrains on dark energy. In this paper, we model the statistical properties of these regions using the CoSphere formalism (de Fromont & Alimi) in both primordial and non-linearly evolved Universe in the standard Λ cold dark matter model. This formalism applies similarly for minima (voids) and maxima (such as DM haloes), which are here considered symmetrically. We first derive the full joint Gaussian distribution of CoSphere's parameters in the Gaussian random field. We recover the results of Bardeen et al. only in the limit where the compensation radius becomes very large, i.e. when the central extremum decouples from its cosmic environment. We compute the probability distribution of the compensation size in this primordial field. We show that this distribution is redshift independent and can be used to model cosmic voids size distribution. We also derive the statistical distribution of the peak parameters introduced by Bardeen et al. and discuss their correlation with the cosmic environment. We show that small central extrema with low density are associated with narrow compensation regions with deep compensation density, while higher central extrema are preferentially located in larger but smoother over/under massive regions.

  17. Inhomogeneous broadening of PAC spectra with Vzz and η joint probability distribution functions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Evenson, W. E.; Adams, M.; Bunker, A.; Hodges, J.; Matheson, P.; Park, T.; Stufflebeam, M.; Zacate, M. O.

    2013-01-01

    The perturbed angular correlation (PAC) spectrum, G 2 (t), is broadened by the presence of randomly distributed defects in crystals due to a distribution of electric field gradients (EFGs) experienced by probe nuclei. Heuristic approaches to fitting spectra that exhibit such inhomogeneous broadening (ihb) consider only the distribution of EFG magnitudes V zz , but the physical effect actually depends on the joint probability distribution function (pdf) of V zz and EFG asymmetry parameter η. The difficulty in determining the joint pdf leads us to more appropriate representations of the EFG coordinates, and to express the joint pdf as the product of two approximately independent pdfs describing each coordinate separately. We have pursued this case in detail using as an initial illustration of the method a simple point defect model with nuclear spin I = 5/2 in several cubic lattices, where G 2 (t) is primarily induced by a defect trapped in the first neighbor shell of a probe and broadening is due to defects distributed at random outside the first neighbor shell. Effects such as lattice relaxation are ignored in this simple test of the method. The simplicity of our model is suitable for gaining insight into ihb with more than V zz alone. We simulate ihb in this simple case by averaging the net EFGs of 20,000 random defect arrangements, resulting in a broadened average G 2 (t). The 20,000 random cases provide a distribution of EFG components which are first transformed to Czjzek coordinates and then further into the full Czjzek half plane by conformal mapping. The topology of this transformed space yields an approximately separable joint pdf for the EFG components. We then fit the nearly independent pdfs and reconstruct G 2 (t) as a function of defect concentration. We report results for distributions of defects on simple cubic, face-centered cubic, and body-centered cubic lattices. The method explored here for analyzing ihb is applicable to more realistic cases.

  18. Inhomogeneous broadening of PAC spectra with V zz and η joint probability distribution functions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evenson, W. E.; Adams, M.; Bunker, A.; Hodges, J.; Matheson, P.; Park, T.; Stufflebeam, M.; Zacate, M. O.

    2013-05-01

    The perturbed angular correlation (PAC) spectrum, G 2( t), is broadened by the presence of randomly distributed defects in crystals due to a distribution of electric field gradients (EFGs) experienced by probe nuclei. Heuristic approaches to fitting spectra that exhibit such inhomogeneous broadening (ihb) consider only the distribution of EFG magnitudes V zz , but the physical effect actually depends on the joint probability distribution function (pdf) of V zz and EFG asymmetry parameter η. The difficulty in determining the joint pdf leads us to more appropriate representations of the EFG coordinates, and to express the joint pdf as the product of two approximately independent pdfs describing each coordinate separately. We have pursued this case in detail using as an initial illustration of the method a simple point defect model with nuclear spin I = 5/2 in several cubic lattices, where G 2( t) is primarily induced by a defect trapped in the first neighbor shell of a probe and broadening is due to defects distributed at random outside the first neighbor shell. Effects such as lattice relaxation are ignored in this simple test of the method. The simplicity of our model is suitable for gaining insight into ihb with more than V zz alone. We simulate ihb in this simple case by averaging the net EFGs of 20,000 random defect arrangements, resulting in a broadened average G 2( t). The 20,000 random cases provide a distribution of EFG components which are first transformed to Czjzek coordinates and then further into the full Czjzek half plane by conformal mapping. The topology of this transformed space yields an approximately separable joint pdf for the EFG components. We then fit the nearly independent pdfs and reconstruct G 2( t) as a function of defect concentration. We report results for distributions of defects on simple cubic, face-centered cubic, and body-centered cubic lattices. The method explored here for analyzing ihb is applicable to more realistic cases.

  19. Arrival time and incidence angle distributions of extensive air showers (EAS) muons

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brancus, I.M.; Duma, M.; Vulpescu, B.; Foeller, M.; Rebel, H.; Voelker, G.; Chilingarian, A.A.

    1995-01-01

    The arrival time distributions of the muons can be related to the longitudinal EAS development and may provide additional information about the nature of the primary. Based on EAS simulations using the Monte-Carlo code CORSIKA, the correlations between arrival time and incidence angle distributions have been investigated in a case of a set of ideal detectors (10 m x 10 m) placed at various distances from the shower core. Applying advanced statistical techniques based on Bayes decision rule and non-parametric multivariate analysing methods it turns out that the correlations of muon arrival time and incidence angle at various separating distances of about 50 m exhibit promising features for mass discrimination (author)

  20. Maximum Entropy Estimation of Probability Distribution of Variables in Higher Dimensions from Lower Dimensional Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jayajit Das '

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available A common statistical situation concerns inferring an unknown distribution Q(x from a known distribution P(y, where X (dimension n, and Y (dimension m have a known functional relationship. Most commonly, n ≤ m, and the task is relatively straightforward for well-defined functional relationships. For example, if Y1 and Y2 are independent random variables, each uniform on [0, 1], one can determine the distribution of X = Y1 + Y2; here m = 2 and n = 1. However, biological and physical situations can arise where n > m and the functional relation Y→X is non-unique. In general, in the absence of additional information, there is no unique solution to Q in those cases. Nevertheless, one may still want to draw some inferences about Q. To this end, we propose a novel maximum entropy (MaxEnt approach that estimates Q(x based only on the available data, namely, P(y. The method has the additional advantage that one does not need to explicitly calculate the Lagrange multipliers. In this paper we develop the approach, for both discrete and continuous probability distributions, and demonstrate its validity. We give an intuitive justification as well, and we illustrate with examples.

  1. Signature of non-isotropic distribution of stellar rotation inclination angles in the Praesepe cluster

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kovacs, Geza

    2018-04-01

    The distribution of the stellar rotation axes of 113 main sequence stars in the open cluster Praesepe are examined by using current photometric rotation periods, spectroscopic rotation velocities, and estimated stellar radii. Three different samples of stellar rotation data on spotted stars from the Galactic field and two independent samples of planetary hosts are used as control samples to support the consistency of the analysis. Considering the high completeness of the Praesepe sample and the behavior of the control samples, we find that the main sequence F - K stars in this cluster are susceptible to rotational axis alignment. Using a cone model, the most likely inclination angle is 76° ± 14° with a half opening angle of 47° ± 24°. Non-isotropic distribution of the inclination angles is preferred over the isotropic distribution, except if the rotation velocities used in this work are systematically overestimated. We found no indication of this being the case on the basis of the currently available data. Data are only available at the CDS, together with the other two compiled datasets used in this paper, via anonymous ftp to http://cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr (http://130.79.128.5) or via http://cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr/viz-bin/qcat?J/A+A/612/L2

  2. Serial Spike Time Correlations Affect Probability Distribution of Joint Spike Events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shahi, Mina; van Vreeswijk, Carl; Pipa, Gordon

    2016-01-01

    Detecting the existence of temporally coordinated spiking activity, and its role in information processing in the cortex, has remained a major challenge for neuroscience research. Different methods and approaches have been suggested to test whether the observed synchronized events are significantly different from those expected by chance. To analyze the simultaneous spike trains for precise spike correlation, these methods typically model the spike trains as a Poisson process implying that the generation of each spike is independent of all the other spikes. However, studies have shown that neural spike trains exhibit dependence among spike sequences, such as the absolute and relative refractory periods which govern the spike probability of the oncoming action potential based on the time of the last spike, or the bursting behavior, which is characterized by short epochs of rapid action potentials, followed by longer episodes of silence. Here we investigate non-renewal processes with the inter-spike interval distribution model that incorporates spike-history dependence of individual neurons. For that, we use the Monte Carlo method to estimate the full shape of the coincidence count distribution and to generate false positives for coincidence detection. The results show that compared to the distributions based on homogeneous Poisson processes, and also non-Poisson processes, the width of the distribution of joint spike events changes. Non-renewal processes can lead to both heavy tailed or narrow coincidence distribution. We conclude that small differences in the exact autostructure of the point process can cause large differences in the width of a coincidence distribution. Therefore, manipulations of the autostructure for the estimation of significance of joint spike events seem to be inadequate.

  3. The effects of radiotherapy treatment uncertainties on the delivered dose distribution and tumour control probability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Booth, J.T.; Zavgorodni, S.F.; Royal Adelaide Hospital, SA

    2001-01-01

    Uncertainty in the precise quantity of radiation dose delivered to tumours in external beam radiotherapy is present due to many factors, and can result in either spatially uniform (Gaussian) or spatially non-uniform dose errors. These dose errors are incorporated into the calculation of tumour control probability (TCP) and produce a distribution of possible TCP values over a population. We also study the effect of inter-patient cell sensitivity heterogeneity on the population distribution of patient TCPs. This study aims to investigate the relative importance of these three uncertainties (spatially uniform dose uncertainty, spatially non-uniform dose uncertainty, and inter-patient cell sensitivity heterogeneity) on the delivered dose and TCP distribution following a typical course of fractionated external beam radiotherapy. The dose distributions used for patient treatments are modelled in one dimension. Geometric positioning uncertainties during and before treatment are considered as shifts of a pre-calculated dose distribution. Following the simulation of a population of patients, distributions of dose across the patient population are used to calculate mean treatment dose, standard deviation in mean treatment dose, mean TCP, standard deviation in TCP, and TCP mode. These parameters are calculated with each of the three uncertainties included separately. The calculations show that the dose errors in the tumour volume are dominated by the spatially uniform component of dose uncertainty. This could be related to machine specific parameters, such as linear accelerator calibration. TCP calculation is affected dramatically by inter-patient variation in the cell sensitivity and to a lesser extent by the spatially uniform dose errors. The positioning errors with the 1.5 cm margins used cause dose uncertainty outside the tumour volume and have a small effect on mean treatment dose (in the tumour volume) and tumour control. Copyright (2001) Australasian College of

  4. Probability distributions of placental morphological measurements and origins of variability of placental shapes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yampolsky, M; Salafia, C M; Shlakhter, O

    2013-06-01

    While the mean shape of human placenta is round with centrally inserted umbilical cord, significant deviations from this ideal are fairly common, and may be clinically meaningful. Traditionally, they are explained by trophotropism. We have proposed a hypothesis explaining typical variations in placental shape by randomly determined fluctuations in the growth process of the vascular tree. It has been recently reported that umbilical cord displacement in a birth cohort has a log-normal probability distribution, which indicates that the displacement between an initial point of origin and the centroid of the mature shape is a result of accumulation of random fluctuations of the dynamic growth of the placenta. To confirm this, we investigate statistical distributions of other features of placental morphology. In a cohort of 1023 births at term digital photographs of placentas were recorded at delivery. Excluding cases with velamentous cord insertion, or missing clinical data left 1001 (97.8%) for which placental surface morphology features were measured. Best-fit statistical distributions for them were obtained using EasyFit. The best-fit distributions of umbilical cord displacement, placental disk diameter, area, perimeter, and maximal radius calculated from the cord insertion point are of heavy-tailed type, similar in shape to log-normal distributions. This is consistent with a stochastic origin of deviations of placental shape from normal. Deviations of placental shape descriptors from average have heavy-tailed distributions similar in shape to log-normal. This evidence points away from trophotropism, and towards a spontaneous stochastic evolution of the variants of placental surface shape features. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Spatial distribution and occurrence probability of regional new particle formation events in eastern China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Xiaojing; Sun, Junying; Kivekäs, Niku; Kristensson, Adam; Zhang, Xiaoye; Zhang, Yangmei; Zhang, Lu; Fan, Ruxia; Qi, Xuefei; Ma, Qianli; Zhou, Huaigang

    2018-01-01

    In this work, the spatial extent of new particle formation (NPF) events and the relative probability of observing particles originating from different spatial origins around three rural sites in eastern China were investigated using the NanoMap method, using particle number size distribution (PNSD) data and air mass back trajectories. The length of the datasets used were 7, 1.5, and 3 years at rural sites Shangdianzi (SDZ) in the North China Plain (NCP), Mt. Tai (TS) in central eastern China, and Lin'an (LAN) in the Yangtze River Delta region in eastern China, respectively. Regional NPF events were observed to occur with the horizontal extent larger than 500 km at SDZ and TS, favoured by the fast transport of northwesterly air masses. At LAN, however, the spatial footprint of NPF events was mostly observed around the site within 100-200 km. Difference in the horizontal spatial distribution of new particle source areas at different sites was connected to typical meteorological conditions at the sites. Consecutive large-scale regional NPF events were observed at SDZ and TS simultaneously and were associated with a high surface pressure system dominating over this area. Simultaneous NPF events at SDZ and LAN were seldom observed. At SDZ the polluted air masses arriving over the NCP were associated with higher particle growth rate (GR) and new particle formation rate (J) than air masses from Inner Mongolia (IM). At TS the same phenomenon was observed for J, but GR was somewhat lower in air masses arriving over the NCP compared to those arriving from IM. The capability of NanoMap to capture the NPF occurrence probability depends on the length of the dataset of PNSD measurement but also on topography around the measurement site and typical air mass advection speed during NPF events. Thus the long-term measurements of PNSD in the planetary boundary layer are necessary in the further study of spatial extent and the probability of NPF events. The spatial extent, relative

  6. Spatial distribution and occurrence probability of regional new particle formation events in eastern China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    X. Shen

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available In this work, the spatial extent of new particle formation (NPF events and the relative probability of observing particles originating from different spatial origins around three rural sites in eastern China were investigated using the NanoMap method, using particle number size distribution (PNSD data and air mass back trajectories. The length of the datasets used were 7, 1.5, and 3 years at rural sites Shangdianzi (SDZ in the North China Plain (NCP, Mt. Tai (TS in central eastern China, and Lin'an (LAN in the Yangtze River Delta region in eastern China, respectively. Regional NPF events were observed to occur with the horizontal extent larger than 500 km at SDZ and TS, favoured by the fast transport of northwesterly air masses. At LAN, however, the spatial footprint of NPF events was mostly observed around the site within 100–200 km. Difference in the horizontal spatial distribution of new particle source areas at different sites was connected to typical meteorological conditions at the sites. Consecutive large-scale regional NPF events were observed at SDZ and TS simultaneously and were associated with a high surface pressure system dominating over this area. Simultaneous NPF events at SDZ and LAN were seldom observed. At SDZ the polluted air masses arriving over the NCP were associated with higher particle growth rate (GR and new particle formation rate (J than air masses from Inner Mongolia (IM. At TS the same phenomenon was observed for J, but GR was somewhat lower in air masses arriving over the NCP compared to those arriving from IM. The capability of NanoMap to capture the NPF occurrence probability depends on the length of the dataset of PNSD measurement but also on topography around the measurement site and typical air mass advection speed during NPF events. Thus the long-term measurements of PNSD in the planetary boundary layer are necessary in the further study of spatial extent and the probability of NPF events. The spatial

  7. Digital simulation of two-dimensional random fields with arbitrary power spectra and non-Gaussian probability distribution functions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Yura, Harold; Hanson, Steen Grüner

    2012-01-01

    Methods for simulation of two-dimensional signals with arbitrary power spectral densities and signal amplitude probability density functions are disclosed. The method relies on initially transforming a white noise sample set of random Gaussian distributed numbers into a corresponding set with the......Methods for simulation of two-dimensional signals with arbitrary power spectral densities and signal amplitude probability density functions are disclosed. The method relies on initially transforming a white noise sample set of random Gaussian distributed numbers into a corresponding set...... with the desired spectral distribution, after which this colored Gaussian probability distribution is transformed via an inverse transform into the desired probability distribution. In most cases the method provides satisfactory results and can thus be considered an engineering approach. Several illustrative...

  8. THE EFFECTS OF VIEWING ANGLE ON THE MASS DISTRIBUTION OF EXOPLANETS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lopez, S.; Jenkins, J. S.

    2012-01-01

    We present a mathematical method to statistically decouple the effects of unknown inclination angles on the mass distribution of exoplanets that have been discovered using radial-velocity (RV) techniques. The method is based on the distribution of the product of two random variables. Thus, if one assumes a true mass distribution, the method makes it possible to recover the observed distribution. We compare our prediction with available RV data. Assuming that the true mass function is described by a power law, the minimum mass function that we recover proves a good fit to the observed distribution at both mass ends. In particular, it provides an alternative explanation for the observed low-mass decline, usually explained as sample incompleteness. In addition, the peak observed near the low-mass end arises naturally in the predicted distribution as a consequence of imposing a low-mass cutoff in the true distribution. If the low-mass bins below 0.02 M J are complete, then the mass distribution in this regime is heavily affected by the small fraction of lowly inclined interlopers that are actually more massive companions. Finally, we also present evidence that the exoplanet mass distribution changes form toward low mass, implying that a single power law may not adequately describe the sample population.

  9. Modeling the probability distribution of positional errors incurred by residential address geocoding

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mazumdar Soumya

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The assignment of a point-level geocode to subjects' residences is an important data assimilation component of many geographic public health studies. Often, these assignments are made by a method known as automated geocoding, which attempts to match each subject's address to an address-ranged street segment georeferenced within a streetline database and then interpolate the position of the address along that segment. Unfortunately, this process results in positional errors. Our study sought to model the probability distribution of positional errors associated with automated geocoding and E911 geocoding. Results Positional errors were determined for 1423 rural addresses in Carroll County, Iowa as the vector difference between each 100%-matched automated geocode and its true location as determined by orthophoto and parcel information. Errors were also determined for 1449 60%-matched geocodes and 2354 E911 geocodes. Huge (> 15 km outliers occurred among the 60%-matched geocoding errors; outliers occurred for the other two types of geocoding errors also but were much smaller. E911 geocoding was more accurate (median error length = 44 m than 100%-matched automated geocoding (median error length = 168 m. The empirical distributions of positional errors associated with 100%-matched automated geocoding and E911 geocoding exhibited a distinctive Greek-cross shape and had many other interesting features that were not capable of being fitted adequately by a single bivariate normal or t distribution. However, mixtures of t distributions with two or three components fit the errors very well. Conclusion Mixtures of bivariate t distributions with few components appear to be flexible enough to fit many positional error datasets associated with geocoding, yet parsimonious enough to be feasible for nascent applications of measurement-error methodology to spatial epidemiology.

  10. On the probability distribution of daily streamflow in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blum, Annalise G.; Archfield, Stacey A.; Vogel, Richard M.

    2017-06-01

    Daily streamflows are often represented by flow duration curves (FDCs), which illustrate the frequency with which flows are equaled or exceeded. FDCs have had broad applications across both operational and research hydrology for decades; however, modeling FDCs has proven elusive. Daily streamflow is a complex time series with flow values ranging over many orders of magnitude. The identification of a probability distribution that can approximate daily streamflow would improve understanding of the behavior of daily flows and the ability to estimate FDCs at ungaged river locations. Comparisons of modeled and empirical FDCs at nearly 400 unregulated, perennial streams illustrate that the four-parameter kappa distribution provides a very good representation of daily streamflow across the majority of physiographic regions in the conterminous United States (US). Further, for some regions of the US, the three-parameter generalized Pareto and lognormal distributions also provide a good approximation to FDCs. Similar results are found for the period of record FDCs, representing the long-term hydrologic regime at a site, and median annual FDCs, representing the behavior of flows in a typical year.

  11. Various models for pion probability distributions from heavy-ion collisions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mekjian, A.Z.; Mekjian, A.Z.; Schlei, B.R.; Strottman, D.; Schlei, B.R.

    1998-01-01

    Various models for pion multiplicity distributions produced in relativistic heavy ion collisions are discussed. The models include a relativistic hydrodynamic model, a thermodynamic description, an emitting source pion laser model, and a description which generates a negative binomial description. The approach developed can be used to discuss other cases which will be mentioned. The pion probability distributions for these various cases are compared. Comparison of the pion laser model and Bose-Einstein condensation in a laser trap and with the thermal model are made. The thermal model and hydrodynamic model are also used to illustrate why the number of pions never diverges and why the Bose-Einstein correction effects are relatively small. The pion emission strength η of a Poisson emitter and a critical density η c are connected in a thermal model by η/n c =e -m/T <1, and this fact reduces any Bose-Einstein correction effects in the number and number fluctuation of pions. Fluctuations can be much larger than Poisson in the pion laser model and for a negative binomial description. The clan representation of the negative binomial distribution due to Van Hove and Giovannini is discussed using the present description. Applications to CERN/NA44 and CERN/NA49 data are discussed in terms of the relativistic hydrodynamic model. copyright 1998 The American Physical Society

  12. Analysis of Observation Data of Earth-Rockfill Dam Based on Cloud Probability Distribution Density Algorithm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Han Liwei

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Monitoring data on an earth-rockfill dam constitutes a form of spatial data. Such data include much uncertainty owing to the limitation of measurement information, material parameters, load, geometry size, initial conditions, boundary conditions and the calculation model. So the cloud probability density of the monitoring data must be addressed. In this paper, the cloud theory model was used to address the uncertainty transition between the qualitative concept and the quantitative description. Then an improved algorithm of cloud probability distribution density based on a backward cloud generator was proposed. This was used to effectively convert certain parcels of accurate data into concepts which can be described by proper qualitative linguistic values. Such qualitative description was addressed as cloud numerical characteristics-- {Ex, En, He}, which could represent the characteristics of all cloud drops. The algorithm was then applied to analyze the observation data of a piezometric tube in an earth-rockfill dam. And experiment results proved that the proposed algorithm was feasible, through which, we could reveal the changing regularity of piezometric tube’s water level. And the damage of the seepage in the body was able to be found out.

  13. Scaling of strength and lifetime probability distributions of quasibrittle structures based on atomistic fracture mechanics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bažant, Zdeněk P.; Le, Jia-Liang; Bazant, Martin Z.

    2009-01-01

    The failure probability of engineering structures such as aircraft, bridges, dams, nuclear structures, and ships, as well as microelectronic components and medical implants, must be kept extremely low, typically crack growth, hitherto considered empirical. The theory is further extended to predict the cdf of structural lifetime at constant load, which is shown to be size- and geometry-dependent. The size effects on structure strength and lifetime are shown to be related and the latter to be much stronger. The theory fits previously unexplained deviations of experimental strength and lifetime histograms from the Weibull distribution. Finally, a boundary layer method for numerical calculation of the cdf of structural strength and lifetime is outlined. PMID:19561294

  14. Binomial moments of the distance distribution and the probability of undetected error

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barg, A. [Lucent Technologies, Murray Hill, NJ (United States). Bell Labs.; Ashikhmin, A. [Los Alamos National Lab., NM (United States)

    1998-09-01

    In [1] K.A.S. Abdel-Ghaffar derives a lower bound on the probability of undetected error for unrestricted codes. The proof relies implicitly on the binomial moments of the distance distribution of the code. The authors use the fact that these moments count the size of subcodes of the code to give a very simple proof of the bound in [1] by showing that it is essentially equivalent to the Singleton bound. They discuss some combinatorial connections revealed by this proof. They also discuss some improvements of this bound. Finally, they analyze asymptotics. They show that an upper bound on the undetected error exponent that corresponds to the bound of [1] improves known bounds on this function.

  15. Scaling of strength and lifetime probability distributions of quasibrittle structures based on atomistic fracture mechanics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bazant, Zdenek P; Le, Jia-Liang; Bazant, Martin Z

    2009-07-14

    The failure probability of engineering structures such as aircraft, bridges, dams, nuclear structures, and ships, as well as microelectronic components and medical implants, must be kept extremely low, typically theory for the strength cdf of quasibrittle structure is refined by deriving it from fracture mechanics of nanocracks propagating by small, activation-energy-controlled, random jumps through the atomic lattice. This refinement also provides a plausible physical justification of the power law for subcritical creep crack growth, hitherto considered empirical. The theory is further extended to predict the cdf of structural lifetime at constant load, which is shown to be size- and geometry-dependent. The size effects on structure strength and lifetime are shown to be related and the latter to be much stronger. The theory fits previously unexplained deviations of experimental strength and lifetime histograms from the Weibull distribution. Finally, a boundary layer method for numerical calculation of the cdf of structural strength and lifetime is outlined.

  16. Estimating species occurrence, abundance, and detection probability using zero-inflated distributions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wenger, Seth J; Freeman, Mary C

    2008-10-01

    Researchers have developed methods to account for imperfect detection of species with either occupancy (presence absence) or count data using replicated sampling. We show how these approaches can be combined to simultaneously estimate occurrence, abundance, and detection probability by specifying a zero-inflated distribution for abundance. This approach may be particularly appropriate when patterns of occurrence and abundance arise from distinct processes operating at differing spatial or temporal scales. We apply the model to two data sets: (1) previously published data for a species of duck, Anas platyrhynchos, and (2) data for a stream fish species, Etheostoma scotti. We show that in these cases, an incomplete-detection zero-inflated modeling approach yields a superior fit to the data than other models. We propose that zero-inflated abundance models accounting for incomplete detection be considered when replicate count data are available.

  17. Likelihood analysis of species occurrence probability from presence-only data for modelling species distributions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Royle, J. Andrew; Chandler, Richard B.; Yackulic, Charles; Nichols, James D.

    2012-01-01

    1. Understanding the factors affecting species occurrence is a pre-eminent focus of applied ecological research. However, direct information about species occurrence is lacking for many species. Instead, researchers sometimes have to rely on so-called presence-only data (i.e. when no direct information about absences is available), which often results from opportunistic, unstructured sampling. MAXENT is a widely used software program designed to model and map species distribution using presence-only data. 2. We provide a critical review of MAXENT as applied to species distribution modelling and discuss how it can lead to inferential errors. A chief concern is that MAXENT produces a number of poorly defined indices that are not directly related to the actual parameter of interest – the probability of occurrence (ψ). This focus on an index was motivated by the belief that it is not possible to estimate ψ from presence-only data; however, we demonstrate that ψ is identifiable using conventional likelihood methods under the assumptions of random sampling and constant probability of species detection. 3. The model is implemented in a convenient r package which we use to apply the model to simulated data and data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey. We demonstrate that MAXENT produces extreme under-predictions when compared to estimates produced by logistic regression which uses the full (presence/absence) data set. We note that MAXENT predictions are extremely sensitive to specification of the background prevalence, which is not objectively estimated using the MAXENT method. 4. As with MAXENT, formal model-based inference requires a random sample of presence locations. Many presence-only data sets, such as those based on museum records and herbarium collections, may not satisfy this assumption. However, when sampling is random, we believe that inference should be based on formal methods that facilitate inference about interpretable ecological quantities

  18. Inhomogeneous broadening of PAC spectra with V{sub zz} and {eta} joint probability distribution functions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Evenson, W. E.; Adams, M.; Bunker, A.; Hodges, J.; Matheson, P.; Park, T.; Stufflebeam, M. [Utah Valley University, Department of Physics (United States); Zacate, M. O., E-mail: zacatem1@nku.edu [Northern Kentucky University, Department of Physics and Geology (United States)

    2013-05-15

    The perturbed angular correlation (PAC) spectrum, G{sub 2}(t), is broadened by the presence of randomly distributed defects in crystals due to a distribution of electric field gradients (EFGs) experienced by probe nuclei. Heuristic approaches to fitting spectra that exhibit such inhomogeneous broadening (ihb) consider only the distribution of EFG magnitudes V{sub zz}, but the physical effect actually depends on the joint probability distribution function (pdf) of V{sub zz} and EFG asymmetry parameter {eta}. The difficulty in determining the joint pdf leads us to more appropriate representations of the EFG coordinates, and to express the joint pdf as the product of two approximately independent pdfs describing each coordinate separately. We have pursued this case in detail using as an initial illustration of the method a simple point defect model with nuclear spin I = 5/2 in several cubic lattices, where G{sub 2}(t) is primarily induced by a defect trapped in the first neighbor shell of a probe and broadening is due to defects distributed at random outside the first neighbor shell. Effects such as lattice relaxation are ignored in this simple test of the method. The simplicity of our model is suitable for gaining insight into ihb with more than V{sub zz} alone. We simulate ihb in this simple case by averaging the net EFGs of 20,000 random defect arrangements, resulting in a broadened average G{sub 2}(t). The 20,000 random cases provide a distribution of EFG components which are first transformed to Czjzek coordinates and then further into the full Czjzek half plane by conformal mapping. The topology of this transformed space yields an approximately separable joint pdf for the EFG components. We then fit the nearly independent pdfs and reconstruct G{sub 2}(t) as a function of defect concentration. We report results for distributions of defects on simple cubic, face-centered cubic, and body-centered cubic lattices. The method explored here for analyzing ihb is

  19. Innovative Meta-Heuristic Approach Application for Parameter Estimation of Probability Distribution Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, T. S.; Yoon, S.; Jeong, C.

    2012-12-01

    The primary purpose of frequency analysis in hydrology is to estimate the magnitude of an event with a given frequency of occurrence. The precision of frequency analysis depends on the selection of an appropriate probability distribution model (PDM) and parameter estimation techniques. A number of PDMs have been developed to describe the probability distribution of the hydrological variables. For each of the developed PDMs, estimated parameters are provided based on alternative estimation techniques, such as the method of moments (MOM), probability weighted moments (PWM), linear function of ranked observations (L-moments), and maximum likelihood (ML). Generally, the results using ML are more reliable than the other methods. However, the ML technique is more laborious than the other methods because an iterative numerical solution, such as the Newton-Raphson method, must be used for the parameter estimation of PDMs. In the meantime, meta-heuristic approaches have been developed to solve various engineering optimization problems (e.g., linear and stochastic, dynamic, nonlinear). These approaches include genetic algorithms, ant colony optimization, simulated annealing, tabu searches, and evolutionary computation methods. Meta-heuristic approaches use a stochastic random search instead of a gradient search so that intricate derivative information is unnecessary. Therefore, the meta-heuristic approaches have been shown to be a useful strategy to solve optimization problems in hydrology. A number of studies focus on using meta-heuristic approaches for estimation of hydrological variables with parameter estimation of PDMs. Applied meta-heuristic approaches offer reliable solutions but use more computation time than derivative-based methods. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to enhance the meta-heuristic approach for the parameter estimation of PDMs by using a recently developed algorithm known as a harmony search (HS). The performance of the HS is compared to the

  20. Rapid flattening of butterfly pitch angle distributions of radiation belt electrons by whistler-mode chorus

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang, Chang; Changsha University of Science and Technology, Changsha; Su, Zhenpeng; Xiao, Fuliang; Zheng, Huinan

    2016-01-01

    Van Allen radiation belt electrons exhibit complex dynamics during geomagnetically active periods. Investigation of electron pitch angle distributions (PADs) can provide important information on the dominant physical mechanisms controlling radiation belt behaviors. In this paper, we report a storm time radiation belt event where energetic electron PADs changed from butterfly distributions to normal or flattop distributions within several hours. Van Allen Probes observations showed that the flattening of butterfly PADs was closely related to the occurrence of whistler-mode chorus waves. Two-dimensional quasi-linear STEERB simulations demonstrate that the observed chorus can resonantly accelerate the near-equatorially trapped electrons and rapidly flatten the corresponding electron butterfly PADs. Finally, these results provide a new insight on how chorus waves affect the dynamic evolution of radiation belt electrons.

  1. Gravity or turbulence? - II. Evolving column density probability distribution functions in molecular clouds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ballesteros-Paredes, Javier; Vázquez-Semadeni, Enrique; Gazol, Adriana; Hartmann, Lee W.; Heitsch, Fabian; Colín, Pedro

    2011-09-01

    It has been recently shown that molecular clouds do not exhibit a unique shape for the column density probability distribution function (N-PDF). Instead, clouds without star formation seem to possess a lognormal distribution, while clouds with active star formation develop a power-law tail at high column densities. The lognormal behaviour of the N-PDF has been interpreted in terms of turbulent motions dominating the dynamics of the clouds, while the power-law behaviour occurs when the cloud is dominated by gravity. In the present contribution, we use thermally bi-stable numerical simulations of cloud formation and evolution to show that, indeed, these two regimes can be understood in terms of the formation and evolution of molecular clouds: a very narrow lognormal regime appears when the cloud is being assembled. However, as the global gravitational contraction occurs, the initial density fluctuations are enhanced, resulting, first, in a wider lognormal N-PDF, and later, in a power-law N-PDF. We thus suggest that the observed N-PDF of molecular clouds are a manifestation of their global gravitationally contracting state. We also show that, contrary to recent suggestions, the exact value of the power-law slope is not unique, as it depends on the projection in which the cloud is being observed.

  2. Large field distributed aperture laser semiactive angle measurement system design with imaging fiber bundles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Chunyun; Cheng, Haobo; Feng, Yunpeng; Jing, Xiaoli

    2016-09-01

    A type of laser semiactive angle measurement system is designed for target detecting and tracking. Only one detector is used to detect target location from four distributed aperture optical systems through a 4×1 imaging fiber bundle. A telecentric optical system in image space is designed to increase the efficiency of imaging fiber bundles. According to the working principle of a four-quadrant (4Q) detector, fiber diamond alignment is adopted between an optical system and a 4Q detector. The structure of the laser semiactive angle measurement system is, we believe, novel. Tolerance analysis is carried out to determine tolerance limits of manufacture and installation errors of the optical system. The performance of the proposed method is identified by computer simulations and experiments. It is demonstrated that the linear region of the system is ±12°, with measurement error of better than 0.2°. In general, this new system can be used with large field of view and high accuracy, providing an efficient, stable, and fast method for angle measurement in practical situations.

  3. Effect of EMIC Wave Normal Angle Distribution on Relativistic Electron Scattering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gamayunov, K. V.; Khazanov, G. V.

    2006-01-01

    calculate the pitch-angle diffusion coefficients using the typical wave normal distributions obtained from our self-consistent ring current-EMIC wave model, and try to quantify the effect of EMIC wave normal angle characteristics on relativistic electron scattering.

  4. Particle size distribution models of small angle neutron scattering pattern on ferro fluids

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sistin Asri Ani; Darminto; Edy Giri Rachman Putra

    2009-01-01

    The Fe 3 O 4 ferro fluids samples were synthesized by a co-precipitation method. The investigation of ferro fluids microstructure is known to be one of the most important problems because the presence of aggregates and their internal structure influence greatly the properties of ferro fluids. The size and the size dispersion of particle in ferro fluids were determined assuming a log normal distribution of particle radius. The scattering pattern of the measurement by small angle neutron scattering were fitted by the theoretical scattering function of two limitation models are log normal sphere distribution and fractal aggregate. Two types of particle are detected, which are presumably primary particle of 30 Armstrong in radius and secondary fractal aggregate of 200 Armstrong with polydispersity of 0.47 up to 0.53. (author)

  5. Characterizing the Lyman-alpha forest flux probability distribution function using Legendre polynomials

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cieplak, Agnieszka; Slosar, Anze

    2018-01-01

    The Lyman-alpha forest has become a powerful cosmological probe at intermediate redshift. It is a highly non-linear field with much information present beyond the power spectrum. The flux probability flux distribution (PDF) in particular has been a successful probe of small scale physics. However, it is also sensitive to pixel noise, spectrum resolution, and continuum fitting, all of which lead to possible biased estimators. Here we argue that measuring the coefficients of the Legendre polynomial expansion of the PDF offers several advantages over measuring the binned values as is commonly done. Since the n-th Legendre coefficient can be expressed as a linear combination of the first n moments of the field, this allows for the coefficients to be measured in the presence of noise and allows for a clear route towards marginalization over the mean flux. Additionally, in the presence of noise, a finite number of these coefficients are well measured with a very sharp transition into noise dominance. This compresses the information into a small amount of well-measured quantities. Finally, we find that measuring fewer quasars with high signal-to-noise produces a higher amount of recoverable information.

  6. Multiple Streaming and the Probability Distribution of Density in Redshift Space

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hui, Lam; Kofman, Lev; Shandarin, Sergei F.

    2000-07-01

    We examine several aspects of redshift distortions by expressing the redshift-space density in terms of the eigenvalues and orientation of the local Lagrangian deformation tensor. We explore the importance of multiple streaming using the Zeldovich approximation (ZA), and compute the average number of streams in both real and redshift space. We find that multiple streaming can be significant in redshift space but negligible in real space, even at moderate values of the linear fluctuation amplitude (σlreal-space counterparts, redshift-space multiple streams can flow past each other with minimal interactions. Such nonlinear redshift-space effects, which are physically distinct from the fingers-of-God due to small-scale virialized motions, might in part explain the well-known departure of redshift distortions from the classic linear prediction by Kaiser, even at relatively large scales where the corresponding density field in real space is well described by linear perturbation theory. We also compute, using the ZA, the probability distribution function (PDF) of the density, as well as S3, in real and redshift space, and compare it with the PDF measured from N-body simulations. The role of caustics in defining the character of the high-density tail is examined. We find that (non-Lagrangian) smoothing, due to both finite resolution or discreteness and small-scale velocity dispersions, is very effective in erasing caustic structures, unless the initial power spectrum is sufficiently truncated.

  7. Exact probability distributions of selected species in stochastic chemical reaction networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    López-Caamal, Fernando; Marquez-Lago, Tatiana T

    2014-09-01

    Chemical reactions are discrete, stochastic events. As such, the species' molecular numbers can be described by an associated master equation. However, handling such an equation may become difficult due to the large size of reaction networks. A commonly used approach to forecast the behaviour of reaction networks is to perform computational simulations of such systems and analyse their outcome statistically. This approach, however, might require high computational costs to provide accurate results. In this paper we opt for an analytical approach to obtain the time-dependent solution of the Chemical Master Equation for selected species in a general reaction network. When the reaction networks are composed exclusively of zeroth and first-order reactions, this analytical approach significantly alleviates the computational burden required by simulation-based methods. By building upon these analytical solutions, we analyse a general monomolecular reaction network with an arbitrary number of species to obtain the exact marginal probability distribution for selected species. Additionally, we study two particular topologies of monomolecular reaction networks, namely (i) an unbranched chain of monomolecular reactions with and without synthesis and degradation reactions and (ii) a circular chain of monomolecular reactions. We illustrate our methodology and alternative ways to use it for non-linear systems by analysing a protein autoactivation mechanism. Later, we compare the computational load required for the implementation of our results and a pure computational approach to analyse an unbranched chain of monomolecular reactions. Finally, we study calcium ions gates in the sarco/endoplasmic reticulum mediated by ryanodine receptors.

  8. Characterizing the Lyα forest flux probability distribution function using Legendre polynomials

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cieplak, Agnieszka M.; Slosar, Anže, E-mail: acieplak@bnl.gov, E-mail: anze@bnl.gov [Brookhaven National Laboratory, Bldg 510, Upton, NY, 11973 (United States)

    2017-10-01

    The Lyman-α forest is a highly non-linear field with considerable information available in the data beyond the power spectrum. The flux probability distribution function (PDF) has been used as a successful probe of small-scale physics. In this paper we argue that measuring coefficients of the Legendre polynomial expansion of the PDF offers several advantages over measuring the binned values as is commonly done. In particular, the n -th Legendre coefficient can be expressed as a linear combination of the first n moments, allowing these coefficients to be measured in the presence of noise and allowing a clear route for marginalisation over mean flux. Moreover, in the presence of noise, our numerical work shows that a finite number of coefficients are well measured with a very sharp transition into noise dominance. This compresses the available information into a small number of well-measured quantities. We find that the amount of recoverable information is a very non-linear function of spectral noise that strongly favors fewer quasars measured at better signal to noise.

  9. Vertical changes in the probability distribution of downward irradiance within the near-surface ocean under sunny conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gernez, Pierre; Stramski, Dariusz; Darecki, Miroslaw

    2011-07-01

    Time series measurements of fluctuations in underwater downward irradiance, Ed, within the green spectral band (532 nm) show that the probability distribution of instantaneous irradiance varies greatly as a function of depth within the near-surface ocean under sunny conditions. Because of intense light flashes caused by surface wave focusing, the near-surface probability distributions are highly skewed to the right and are heavy tailed. The coefficients of skewness and excess kurtosis at depths smaller than 1 m can exceed 3 and 20, respectively. We tested several probability models, such as lognormal, Gumbel, Fréchet, log-logistic, and Pareto, which are potentially suited to describe the highly skewed heavy-tailed distributions. We found that the models cannot approximate with consistently good accuracy the high irradiance values within the right tail of the experimental distribution where the probability of these values is less than 10%. This portion of the distribution corresponds approximately to light flashes with Ed > 1.5?, where ? is the time-averaged downward irradiance. However, the remaining part of the probability distribution covering all irradiance values smaller than the 90th percentile can be described with a reasonable accuracy (i.e., within 20%) with a lognormal model for all 86 measurements from the top 10 m of the ocean included in this analysis. As the intensity of irradiance fluctuations decreases with depth, the probability distribution tends toward a function symmetrical around the mean like the normal distribution. For the examined data set, the skewness and excess kurtosis assumed values very close to zero at a depth of about 10 m.

  10. EDF: Computing electron number probability distribution functions in real space from molecular wave functions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Francisco, E.; Pendás, A. Martín; Blanco, M. A.

    2008-04-01

    Given an N-electron molecule and an exhaustive partition of the real space ( R) into m arbitrary regions Ω,Ω,…,Ω ( ⋃i=1mΩ=R), the edf program computes all the probabilities P(n,n,…,n) of having exactly n electrons in Ω, n electrons in Ω,…, and n electrons ( n+n+⋯+n=N) in Ω. Each Ω may correspond to a single basin (atomic domain) or several such basins (functional group). In the later case, each atomic domain must belong to a single Ω. The program can manage both single- and multi-determinant wave functions which are read in from an aimpac-like wave function description ( .wfn) file (T.A. Keith et al., The AIMPAC95 programs, http://www.chemistry.mcmaster.ca/aimpac, 1995). For multi-determinantal wave functions a generalization of the original .wfn file has been introduced. The new format is completely backwards compatible, adding to the previous structure a description of the configuration interaction (CI) coefficients and the determinants of correlated wave functions. Besides the .wfn file, edf only needs the overlap integrals over all the atomic domains between the molecular orbitals (MO). After the P(n,n,…,n) probabilities are computed, edf obtains from them several magnitudes relevant to chemical bonding theory, such as average electronic populations and localization/delocalization indices. Regarding spin, edf may be used in two ways: with or without a splitting of the P(n,n,…,n) probabilities into α and β spin components. Program summaryProgram title: edf Catalogue identifier: AEAJ_v1_0 Program summary URL:http://cpc.cs.qub.ac.uk/summaries/AEAJ_v1_0.html Program obtainable from: CPC Program Library, Queen's University, Belfast, N. Ireland Licensing provisions: Standard CPC licence, http://cpc.cs.qub.ac.uk/licence/licence.html No. of lines in distributed program, including test data, etc.: 5387 No. of bytes in distributed program, including test data, etc.: 52 381 Distribution format: tar.gz Programming language: Fortran 77 Computer

  11. Joint Bayesian Estimation of Quasar Continua and the Lyα Forest Flux Probability Distribution Function

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eilers, Anna-Christina; Hennawi, Joseph F.; Lee, Khee-Gan

    2017-08-01

    We present a new Bayesian algorithm making use of Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling that allows us to simultaneously estimate the unknown continuum level of each quasar in an ensemble of high-resolution spectra, as well as their common probability distribution function (PDF) for the transmitted Lyα forest flux. This fully automated PDF regulated continuum fitting method models the unknown quasar continuum with a linear principal component analysis (PCA) basis, with the PCA coefficients treated as nuisance parameters. The method allows one to estimate parameters governing the thermal state of the intergalactic medium (IGM), such as the slope of the temperature-density relation γ -1, while marginalizing out continuum uncertainties in a fully Bayesian way. Using realistic mock quasar spectra created from a simplified semi-numerical model of the IGM, we show that this method recovers the underlying quasar continua to a precision of ≃ 7 % and ≃ 10 % at z = 3 and z = 5, respectively. Given the number of principal component spectra, this is comparable to the underlying accuracy of the PCA model itself. Most importantly, we show that we can achieve a nearly unbiased estimate of the slope γ -1 of the IGM temperature-density relation with a precision of +/- 8.6 % at z = 3 and +/- 6.1 % at z = 5, for an ensemble of ten mock high-resolution quasar spectra. Applying this method to real quasar spectra and comparing to a more realistic IGM model from hydrodynamical simulations would enable precise measurements of the thermal and cosmological parameters governing the IGM, albeit with somewhat larger uncertainties, given the increased flexibility of the model.

  12. Estimating the distribution of probable age-at-death from dental remains of immature human fossils.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shackelford, Laura L; Stinespring Harris, Ashley E; Konigsberg, Lyle W

    2012-02-01

    In two historic longitudinal growth studies, Moorrees et al. (Am J Phys Anthropol 21 (1963) 99-108; J Dent Res 42 (1963) 1490-1502) presented the "mean attainment age" for stages of tooth development for 10 permanent tooth types and three deciduous tooth types. These findings were presented graphically to assess the rate of tooth formation in living children and to age immature skeletal remains. Despite being widely cited, these graphical data are difficult to implement because there are no accompanying numerical values for the parameters underlying the growth data. This analysis generates numerical parameters from the data reported by Moorrees et al. by digitizing 358 points from these tooth formation graphs using DataThief III, version 1.5. Following the original methods, the digitized points for each age transition were conception-corrected and converted to the logarithmic scale to determine a median attainment age for each dental formation stage. These values are subsequently used to estimate age-at-death distributions for immature individuals using a single tooth or multiple teeth, including estimates for 41 immature early modern humans and 25 immature Neandertals. Within-tooth variance is calculated for each age estimate based on a single tooth, and a between-tooth component of variance is calculated for age estimates based on two or more teeth to account for the increase in precision that comes from using additional teeth. Finally, we calculate the relative probability of observing a particular dental formation sequence given known-age reference information and demonstrate its value in estimating age for immature fossil specimens. Copyright © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  13. The probability distribution of maintenance cost of a system affected by the gamma process of degradation: Finite time solution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cheng, Tianjin; Pandey, Mahesh D.; Weide, J.A.M. van der

    2012-01-01

    The stochastic gamma process has been widely used to model uncertain degradation in engineering systems and structures. The optimization of the condition-based maintenance (CBM) policy is typically based on the minimization of the asymptotic cost rate. In the financial planning of a maintenance program, however, a more accurate prediction interval for the cost is needed for prudent decision making. The prediction interval cannot be estimated unless the probability distribution of cost is known. In this context, the asymptotic cost rate has a limited utility. This paper presents the derivation of the probability distribution of maintenance cost, when the system degradation is modelled as a stochastic gamma process. A renewal equation is formulated to derive the characteristic function, then the discrete Fourier transform of the characteristic function leads to the complete probability distribution of cost in a finite time setting. The proposed approach is useful for a precise estimation of prediction limits and optimization of the maintenance cost.

  14. Winter precipitation particle size distribution measurement by Multi-Angle Snowflake Camera

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Gwo-Jong; Kleinkort, Cameron; Bringi, V. N.; Notaroš, Branislav M.

    2017-12-01

    From the radar meteorology viewpoint, the most important properties for quantitative precipitation estimation of winter events are 3D shape, size, and mass of precipitation particles, as well as the particle size distribution (PSD). In order to measure these properties precisely, optical instruments may be the best choice. The Multi-Angle Snowflake Camera (MASC) is a relatively new instrument equipped with three high-resolution cameras to capture the winter precipitation particle images from three non-parallel angles, in addition to measuring the particle fall speed using two pairs of infrared motion sensors. However, the results from the MASC so far are usually presented as monthly or seasonally, and particle sizes are given as histograms, no previous studies have used the MASC for a single storm study, and no researchers use MASC to measure the PSD. We propose the methodology for obtaining the winter precipitation PSD measured by the MASC, and present and discuss the development, implementation, and application of the new technique for PSD computation based on MASC images. Overall, this is the first study of the MASC-based PSD. We present PSD MASC experiments and results for segments of two snow events to demonstrate the performance of our PSD algorithm. The results show that the self-consistency of the MASC measured single-camera PSDs is good. To cross-validate PSD measurements, we compare MASC mean PSD (averaged over three cameras) with the collocated 2D Video Disdrometer, and observe good agreements of the two sets of results.

  15. Analysis of the distribution of pitch angles in model galactic disks - Numerical methods and algorithms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Russell, William S.; Roberts, William W., Jr.

    1993-01-01

    An automated mathematical method capable of successfully isolating the many different features in prototype and observed spiral galaxies and of accurately measuring the pitch angles and lengths of these individual features is developed. The method is applied to analyze the evolution of specific features in a prototype galaxy exhibiting flocculent spiral structure. The mathematical-computational method was separated into two components. Initially, the galaxy was partitioned into dense regions constituting features using two different methods. The results obtained using these two partitioning algorithms were very similar, from which it is inferred that no numerical biasing was evident and that capturing of the features was consistent. Standard least-squares methods underestimated the true slope of the cloud distribution and were incapable of approximating an orientation of 45 deg. The problems were overcome by introducing a superior fit least-squares method, developed with the intention of calculating true orientation rather than a regression line.

  16. Interpretation and Utility of the Moments of Small-Angle X-Ray Scattering Distributions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Modregger, Peter; Kagias, Matias; Irvine, Sarah C; Brönnimann, Rolf; Jefimovs, Konstantins; Endrizzi, Marco; Olivo, Alessandro

    2017-06-30

    Small angle x-ray scattering has been proven to be a valuable method for accessing structural information below the spatial resolution limit implied by direct imaging. Here, we theoretically derive the relation that links the subpixel differential phase signal provided by the sample to the moments of scattering distributions accessible by refraction sensitive x-ray imaging techniques. As an important special case we explain the scatter or dark-field contrast in terms of the sample's phase signal. Further, we establish that, for binary phase objects, the nth moment scales with the difference of the refractive index decrement to the power of n. Finally, we experimentally demonstrate the utility of the moments by quantitatively determining the particle sizes of a range of powders with a laboratory-based setup.

  17. Effects of Schroth and Pilates exercises on the Cobb angle and weight distribution of patients with scoliosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Gichul; HwangBo, Pil-Neo

    2016-03-01

    [Purpose] The purpose of this study was to compare the effect of Schroth and Pilates exercises on the Cobb angle and body weight distribution of patients with idiopathic scoliosis. [Subjects] Twenty-four scoliosis patients with a Cobb angle of ≥20° were divided into the Schroth exercise group (SEG, n = 12) and the Pilates exercise group (PEG, n = 12). [Methods] The SEG and PEG performed Schroth and Pilates exercises, respectively, three times a week for 12 weeks. The Cobb angle was measured in the standing position with a radiography apparatus, and weight load was measured with Gait View Pro 1.0. [Results] In the intragroup comparison, both groups showed significant changes in the Cobb angle. For weight distribution, the SEG showed significant differences in the total weight between the concave and convex sides, but the PEG did not show significant differences. Furthermore, in the intragroup comparison, the SEG showed significant differences in the changes in the Cobb angle and weight distribution compared with the PEG. [Conclusion] Both Schroth and Pilates exercises were effective in changing the Cobb angle and weight distribution of scoliosis patients; however, the intergroup comparison showed that the Schroth exercise was more effective than the Pilates exercise.

  18. Simulation of n-qubit quantum systems. IV. Parametrizations of quantum states, matrices and probability distributions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Radtke, T.; Fritzsche, S.

    2008-11-01

    , quantum information science has contributed to our understanding of quantum mechanics and has provided also new and efficient protocols, based on the use of entangled quantum states. To determine the behavior and entanglement of n-qubit quantum registers, symbolic and numerical simulations need to be applied in order to analyze how these quantum information protocols work and which role the entanglement plays hereby. Solution method: Using the computer algebra system Maple, we have developed a set of procedures that support the definition, manipulation and analysis of n-qubit quantum registers. These procedures also help to deal with (unitary) logic gates and (nonunitary) quantum operations that act upon the quantum registers. With the parameterization of various frequently-applied objects, that are implemented in the present version, the program now facilitates a wider range of symbolic and numerical studies. All commands can be used interactively in order to simulate and analyze the evolution of n-qubit quantum systems, both in ideal and noisy quantum circuits. Reasons for new version: In the first version of the FEYNMAN program [1], we implemented the data structures and tools that are necessary to create, manipulate and to analyze the state of quantum registers. Later [2,3], support was added to deal with quantum operations (noisy channels) as an ingredient which is essential for studying the effects of decoherence. With the present extension, we add a number of parametrizations of objects frequently utilized in decoherence and entanglement studies, such that as hermitian and unitary matrices, probability distributions, or various kinds of quantum states. This extension therefore provides the basis, for example, for the optimization of a given function over the set of pure states or the simple generation of random objects. Running time: Most commands that act upon quantum registers with five or less qubits take ⩽10 seconds of processor time on a Pentium 4 processor

  19. A Hot Spots Ignition Probability Model for Low-Velocity Impacted Explosive Particles Based on the Particle Size and Distribution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hong-fu Guo

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Particle size and distribution play an important role in ignition. The size and distribution of the cyclotetramethylene tetranitramine (HMX particles were investigated by Laser Particle Size Analyzer Malvern MS2000 before experiment and calculation. The mean size of particles is 161 μm. Minimum and maximum sizes are 80 μm and 263 μm, respectively. The distribution function is like a quadratic function. Based on the distribution of micron scale explosive particles, a microscopic model is established to describe the process of ignition of HMX particles under drop weight. Both temperature of contact zones and ignition probability of powder explosive can be predicted. The calculated results show that the temperature of the contact zones between the particles and the drop weight surface increases faster and higher than that of the contact zones between two neighboring particles. For HMX particles, with all other conditions being kept constant, if the drop height is less than 0.1 m, ignition probability will be close to 0. When the drop heights are 0.2 m and 0.3 m, the ignition probability is 0.27 and 0.64, respectively, whereas when the drop height is more than 0.4 m, ignition probability will be close to 0.82. In comparison with experimental results, the two curves are reasonably close to each other, which indicates our model has a certain degree of rationality.

  20. Benchmarking PARTISN with Analog Monte Carlo: Moments of the Neutron Number and the Cumulative Fission Number Probability Distributions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    O' Rourke, Patrick Francis [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2016-10-27

    The purpose of this report is to provide the reader with an understanding of how a Monte Carlo neutron transport code was written, developed, and evolved to calculate the probability distribution functions (PDFs) and their moments for the neutron number at a final time as well as the cumulative fission number, along with introducing several basic Monte Carlo concepts.

  1. Unified Formulation of Single- and Multimoment Normalizations of the Raindrop Size Distribution Based on the Gamma Probability Density Function

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Yu, N.; Delrieu, G.; Boudevillain, Brice; Hazenberg, P.; Uijlenhoet, R.

    2014-01-01

    This study offers a unified formulation of single- and multimoment normalizations of the raindrop size distribution (DSD), which have been proposed in the framework of scaling analyses in the literature. The key point is to consider a well-defined “general distribution” g(x) as the probability

  2. A Neural Network Approach for Identifying Particle Pitch Angle Distributions in Van Allen Probes Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Souza, V. M.; Vieira, L. E. A.; Medeiros, C.; Da Silva, L. A.; Alves, L. R.; Koga, D.; Sibeck, D. G.; Walsh, B. M.; Kanekal, S. G.; Jauer, P. R.; hide

    2016-01-01

    Analysis of particle pitch angle distributions (PADs) has been used as a means to comprehend a multitude of different physical mechanisms that lead to flux variations in the Van Allen belts and also to particle precipitation into the upper atmosphere. In this work we developed a neural network-based data clustering methodology that automatically identifies distinct PAD types in an unsupervised way using particle flux data. One can promptly identify and locate three well-known PAD types in both time and radial distance, namely, 90deg peaked, butterfly, and flattop distributions. In order to illustrate the applicability of our methodology, we used relativistic electron flux data from the whole month of November 2014, acquired from the Relativistic Electron-Proton Telescope instrument on board the Van Allen Probes, but it is emphasized that our approach can also be used with multiplatform spacecraft data. Our PAD classification results are in reasonably good agreement with those obtained by standard statistical fitting algorithms. The proposed methodology has a potential use for Van Allen belt's monitoring.

  3. Preliminary analysis of the distribution of water in human hair by small-angle neutron scattering.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamath, Yash; Murthy, N Sanjeeva; Ramaprasad, Ram

    2014-01-01

    Diffusion and distribution of water in hair can reveal the internal structure of hair that determines the penetration of various products used to treat hair. The distribution of water into different morphological components in unmodified hair, cuticle-free hair, and hair saturated with oil at various levels of humidity was examined using small-angle neutron scattering (SANS) by substituting water with deuterium oxide (D(2)O). Infrared spectroscopy was used to follow hydrogen-deuterium exchange. Water present in hair gives basically two types of responses in SANS: (i) interference patterns, and (ii) central diffuse scattering (CDS) around the beam stop. The amount of water in the matrix between the intermediate filaments that gives rise to interference patterns remained essentially constant over the 50-98% humidity range without swelling this region of the fiber extensively. This observation suggests that a significant fraction of water in the hair, which contributes to the CDS, is likely located in a different morphological region of hair that is more like pores in a fibrous structure, which leads to significant additional swelling of the fiber. Comparison of the scattering of hair treated with oil shows that soybean oil, which diffuses less into hair, allows more water into hair than coconut oil. These preliminary results illustrate the utility of SANS for evaluating and understanding the diffusion of deuterated liquids into different morphological structures in hair.

  4. Comparison of the diagnostic ability of Moorfield′s regression analysis and glaucoma probability score using Heidelberg retinal tomograph III in eyes with primary open angle glaucoma

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jindal Shveta

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: To compare the diagnostic performance of the Heidelberg retinal tomograph (HRT glaucoma probability score (GPS with that of Moorfield′s regression analysis (MRA. Materials and Methods: The study included 50 eyes of normal subjects and 50 eyes of subjects with early-to-moderate primary open angle glaucoma. Images were obtained by using HRT version 3.0. Results: The agreement coefficient (weighted k for the overall MRA and GPS classification was 0.216 (95% CI: 0.119 - 0.315. The sensitivity and specificity were evaluated using the most specific (borderline results included as test negatives and least specific criteria (borderline results included as test positives. The MRA sensitivity and specificity were 30.61 and 98% (most specific and 57.14 and 98% (least specific. The GPS sensitivity and specificity were 81.63 and 73.47% (most specific and 95.92 and 34.69% (least specific. The MRA gave a higher positive likelihood ratio (28.57 vs. 3.08 and the GPS gave a higher negative likelihood ratio (0.25 vs. 0.44.The sensitivity increased with increasing disc size for both MRA and GPS. Conclusions: There was a poor agreement between the overall MRA and GPS classifications. GPS tended to have higher sensitivities, lower specificities, and lower likelihood ratios than the MRA. The disc size should be taken into consideration when interpreting the results of HRT, as both the GPS and MRA showed decreased sensitivity for smaller discs and the GPS showed decreased specificity for larger discs.

  5. Ruin probabilities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Asmussen, Søren; Albrecher, Hansjörg

    The book gives a comprehensive treatment of the classical and modern ruin probability theory. Some of the topics are Lundberg's inequality, the Cramér-Lundberg approximation, exact solutions, other approximations (e.g., for heavy-tailed claim size distributions), finite horizon ruin probabilities......, extensions of the classical compound Poisson model to allow for reserve-dependent premiums, Markov-modulation, periodicity, change of measure techniques, phase-type distributions as a computational vehicle and the connection to other applied probability areas, like queueing theory. In this substantially...... updated and extended second version, new topics include stochastic control, fluctuation theory for Levy processes, Gerber–Shiu functions and dependence....

  6. Classification of Knee Joint Vibration Signals Using Bivariate Feature Distribution Estimation and Maximal Posterior Probability Decision Criterion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fang Zheng

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Analysis of knee joint vibration or vibroarthrographic (VAG signals using signal processing and machine learning algorithms possesses high potential for the noninvasive detection of articular cartilage degeneration, which may reduce unnecessary exploratory surgery. Feature representation of knee joint VAG signals helps characterize the pathological condition of degenerative articular cartilages in the knee. This paper used the kernel-based probability density estimation method to model the distributions of the VAG signals recorded from healthy subjects and patients with knee joint disorders. The estimated densities of the VAG signals showed explicit distributions of the normal and abnormal signal groups, along with the corresponding contours in the bivariate feature space. The signal classifications were performed by using the Fisher’s linear discriminant analysis, support vector machine with polynomial kernels, and the maximal posterior probability decision criterion. The maximal posterior probability decision criterion was able to provide the total classification accuracy of 86.67% and the area (Az of 0.9096 under the receiver operating characteristics curve, which were superior to the results obtained by either the Fisher’s linear discriminant analysis (accuracy: 81.33%, Az: 0.8564 or the support vector machine with polynomial kernels (accuracy: 81.33%, Az: 0.8533. Such results demonstrated the merits of the bivariate feature distribution estimation and the superiority of the maximal posterior probability decision criterion for analysis of knee joint VAG signals.

  7. Chaos optimization algorithms based on chaotic maps with different probability distribution and search speed for global optimization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Dixiong; Liu, Zhenjun; Zhou, Jilei

    2014-04-01

    Chaos optimization algorithms (COAs) usually utilize the chaotic map like Logistic map to generate the pseudo-random numbers mapped as the design variables for global optimization. Many existing researches indicated that COA can more easily escape from the local minima than classical stochastic optimization algorithms. This paper reveals the inherent mechanism of high efficiency and superior performance of COA, from a new perspective of both the probability distribution property and search speed of chaotic sequences generated by different chaotic maps. The statistical property and search speed of chaotic sequences are represented by the probability density function (PDF) and the Lyapunov exponent, respectively. Meanwhile, the computational performances of hybrid chaos-BFGS algorithms based on eight one-dimensional chaotic maps with different PDF and Lyapunov exponents are compared, in which BFGS is a quasi-Newton method for local optimization. Moreover, several multimodal benchmark examples illustrate that, the probability distribution property and search speed of chaotic sequences from different chaotic maps significantly affect the global searching capability and optimization efficiency of COA. To achieve the high efficiency of COA, it is recommended to adopt the appropriate chaotic map generating the desired chaotic sequences with uniform or nearly uniform probability distribution and large Lyapunov exponent.

  8. Uncertainty of Hydrological Drought Characteristics with Copula Functions and Probability Distributions: A Case Study of Weihe River, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Panpan Zhao

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available This study investigates the sensitivity and uncertainty of hydrological droughts frequencies and severity in the Weihe Basin, China during 1960–2012, by using six commonly used univariate probability distributions and three Archimedean copulas to fit the marginal and joint distributions of drought characteristics. The Anderson-Darling method is used for testing the goodness-of-fit of the univariate model, and the Akaike information criterion (AIC is applied to select the best distribution and copula functions. The results demonstrate that there is a very strong correlation between drought duration and drought severity in three stations. The drought return period varies depending on the selected marginal distributions and copula functions and, with an increase of the return period, the differences become larger. In addition, the estimated return periods (both co-occurrence and joint from the best-fitted copulas are the closet to those from empirical distribution. Therefore, it is critical to select the appropriate marginal distribution and copula function to model the hydrological drought frequency and severity. The results of this study can not only help drought investigation to select a suitable probability distribution and copulas function, but are also useful for regional water resource management. However, a few limitations remain in this study, such as the assumption of stationary of runoff series.

  9. Electron Pitch-Angle Distribution in Pressure Balance Structures Measured by Ulysses/SWOOPS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamauchi, Yohei; Suess, Steven T.; Sakurai, Takashi; Six, N. Frank (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    Pressure balance structures (PBSs) are a common feature in the high-latitude solar wind near solar minimum. From previous studies, PBSs are believed to be remnants of coronal plumes. Yamauchi et al [2002] investigated the magnetic structures of the PBSs, applying a minimum variance analysis to Ulysses/Magnetometer data. They found that PBSs contain structures like current sheets or plasmoids, and suggested that PBSs are associated with network activity such as magnetic reconnection in the photosphere at the base of polar plumes. We have investigated energetic electron data from Ulysses/SWOOPS to see whether bi-directional electron flow exists and we have found evidence supporting the earlier conclusions. We find that 45 ot of 53 PBSs show local bi-directional or isotopic electron flux or flux associated with current-sheet structure. Only five events show the pitch-angle distribution expected for Alfvenic fluctuations. We conclude that PBSs do contain magnetic structures such as current sheets or plasmoids that are expected as a result of network activity at the base of polar plumes.

  10. The bond angle distribution and local coordination for silica glass under densification

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hung, P K; Vinh, L T; Huy, N V

    2012-01-01

    We present a simulation of silica glass with density ranging from 2.53 to 3.49 g cm -3 using the molecular dynamics method. The simulation reveals that the density of constructed samples can be expressed by a linear function of fraction of units SiO x . As the density increases, the fraction of units SiO x and linkages OSi y significantly varies, but partial bond angle distributions (BAD) for SiO x , x = 4, 5, 6, and OSi y , y = 2, 3, are identical for all the obtained samples. This allows us to establish a simple relation between total BAD and fraction of SiO x or OSi y . The simulation shows good agreement between the simulation and calculation results for both Si-O-Si and O-Si-O BAD. Moreover, most Si atoms in the low-density sample belong to the perfect tetrahedron (PT), whereas they are mainly present in the distorted tetrahedron for the high-density sample. We also found a large cluster of PTs that are linked to each other via bridging oxygen. The largest cluster consists of 90% Si in the low-density sample and 39% Si in the high-density one. (paper)

  11. Combining Marginal Probability Distributions via Minimization of Weighted Sum of Kullback-Leibler Divergences

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Kracík, Jan

    2011-01-01

    Roč. 52, č. 6 (2011), s. 659-671 ISSN 0888-613X R&D Projects: GA ČR GA102/08/0567 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : combining probabilities * Kullback-Leibler divergence * maximum likelihood * expert opinions * linear opinion pool Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 1.948, year: 2011 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2011/AS/kracik-0359399.pdf

  12. Some families of generalized Mathieu-type power series, associated probability distributions and related functional inequalities involving complete monotonicity and log-convexity

    OpenAIRE

    Tomovski, Zivorad; Mehrez, Khaled

    2016-01-01

    By making use of the familiar Mathieu series and its generalizations, the authors derive a number of new integral representations and present a systematic study of probability density functions and probability distributions associated with some generalizations of the Mathieu series. In particular, the mathematical expectation, variance and the characteristic functions, related to the probability density functions of the considered probability distributions are derived. As a consequence, some ...

  13. Probability an introduction

    CERN Document Server

    Goldberg, Samuel

    1960-01-01

    Excellent basic text covers set theory, probability theory for finite sample spaces, binomial theorem, probability distributions, means, standard deviations, probability function of binomial distribution, more. Includes 360 problems with answers for half.

  14. Spline Smoothing for Estimation of Circular Probability Distributions via Spectral Isomorphism and its Spatial Adaptation

    OpenAIRE

    Basu, Kinjal; Sengupta, Debapriya

    2012-01-01

    Consider the problem when $X_1,X_2,..., X_n$ are distributed on a circle following an unknown distribution $F$ on $S^1$. In this article we have consider the absolute general set-up where the density can have local features such as discontinuities and edges. Furthermore, there can be outlying data which can follow some discrete distributions. The traditional Kernel Density Estimation methods fail to identify such local features in the data. Here we device a non-parametric density estimate on ...

  15. Probability distributions of bed load particle velocities, accelerations, hop distances, and travel times informed by Jaynes's principle of maximum entropy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Furbish, David; Schmeeckle, Mark; Schumer, Rina; Fathel, Siobhan

    2016-01-01

    We describe the most likely forms of the probability distributions of bed load particle velocities, accelerations, hop distances, and travel times, in a manner that formally appeals to inferential statistics while honoring mechanical and kinematic constraints imposed by equilibrium transport conditions. The analysis is based on E. Jaynes's elaboration of the implications of the similarity between the Gibbs entropy in statistical mechanics and the Shannon entropy in information theory. By maximizing the information entropy of a distribution subject to known constraints on its moments, our choice of the form of the distribution is unbiased. The analysis suggests that particle velocities and travel times are exponentially distributed and that particle accelerations follow a Laplace distribution with zero mean. Particle hop distances, viewed alone, ought to be distributed exponentially. However, the covariance between hop distances and travel times precludes this result. Instead, the covariance structure suggests that hop distances follow a Weibull distribution. These distributions are consistent with high-resolution measurements obtained from high-speed imaging of bed load particle motions. The analysis brings us closer to choosing distributions based on our mechanical insight.

  16. On the probability distribution of stock returns in the Mike-Farmer model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gu, G.-F.; Zhou, W.-X.

    2009-02-01

    Recently, Mike and Farmer have constructed a very powerful and realistic behavioral model to mimick the dynamic process of stock price formation based on the empirical regularities of order placement and cancelation in a purely order-driven market, which can successfully reproduce the whole distribution of returns, not only the well-known power-law tails, together with several other important stylized facts. There are three key ingredients in the Mike-Farmer (MF) model: the long memory of order signs characterized by the Hurst index Hs, the distribution of relative order prices x in reference to the same best price described by a Student distribution (or Tsallis’ q-Gaussian), and the dynamics of order cancelation. They showed that different values of the Hurst index Hs and the freedom degree αx of the Student distribution can always produce power-law tails in the return distribution fr(r) with different tail exponent αr. In this paper, we study the origin of the power-law tails of the return distribution fr(r) in the MF model, based on extensive simulations with different combinations of the left part L(x) for x 0 of fx(x). We find that power-law tails appear only when L(x) has a power-law tail, no matter R(x) has a power-law tail or not. In addition, we find that the distributions of returns in the MF model at different timescales can be well modeled by the Student distributions, whose tail exponents are close to the well-known cubic law and increase with the timescale.

  17. Conditional probability distribution associated to the E-M image reconstruction algorithm for neutron stimulated emission tomography

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Viana, R.S.; Yoriyaz, H.; Santos, A.

    2011-01-01

    The Expectation-Maximization (E-M) algorithm is an iterative computational method for maximum likelihood (M-L) estimates, useful in a variety of incomplete-data problems. Due to its stochastic nature, one of the most relevant applications of E-M algorithm is the reconstruction of emission tomography images. In this paper, the statistical formulation of the E-M algorithm was applied to the in vivo spectrographic imaging of stable isotopes called Neutron Stimulated Emission Computed Tomography (NSECT). In the process of E-M algorithm iteration, the conditional probability distribution plays a very important role to achieve high quality image. This present work proposes an alternative methodology for the generation of the conditional probability distribution associated to the E-M reconstruction algorithm, using the Monte Carlo code MCNP5 and with the application of the reciprocity theorem. (author)

  18. A method for acquiring random range uncertainty probability distributions in proton therapy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holloway, S. M.; Holloway, M. D.; Thomas, S. J.

    2018-01-01

    In treatment planning we depend upon accurate knowledge of geometric and range uncertainties. If the uncertainty model is inaccurate then the plan will produce under-dosing of the target and/or overdosing of OAR. We aim to provide a method for which centre and site-specific population range uncertainty due to inter-fraction motion can be quantified to improve the uncertainty model in proton treatment planning. Daily volumetric MVCT data from previously treated radiotherapy patients has been used to investigate inter-fraction changes to water equivalent path-length (WEPL). Daily image-guidance scans were carried out for each patient and corrected for changes in CTV position (using rigid transformations). An effective depth algorithm was used to determine residual range changes, after corrections had been applied, throughout the treatment by comparing WEPL within the CTV at each fraction for several beam angles. As a proof of principle this method was used to quantify uncertainties for inter-fraction range changes for a sample of head and neck patients of Σ=3.39 mm, σ = 4.72 mm and overall mean = -1.82 mm. For prostate Σ=5.64 mm, σ = 5.91 mm and overall mean = 0.98 mm. The choice of beam angle for head and neck did not affect the inter-fraction range error significantly; however this was not the same for prostate. Greater range changes were seen using a lateral beam compared to an anterior beam for prostate due to relative motion of the prostate and femoral heads. A method has been developed to quantify population range changes due to inter-fraction motion that can be adapted for the clinic. The results of this work highlight the importance of robust planning and analysis in proton therapy. Such information could be used in robust optimisation algorithms or treatment plan robustness analysis. Such knowledge will aid in establishing beam start conditions at planning and for establishing adaptive planning protocols.

  19. TGF location, flux and fluence distribution with off-axis angle derived from FERMI data and WWLLN locations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Connell, Paul

    2017-04-01

    The FERMI science support centre has published an online catalogue of 3356 TGFs, along with a subset of 1049 TGFs with a WWLLN temporal association. We have used these tables to create scatter plots and the angular distribution of TGF angles in the FERMI nadir FOV - originally to see what the ASIM/MXGS gamma-ray imager could expect to observe in its FOV. We have also used photon counts from the two FERMI BGO detectors to derive an estimate of TGF flux distribution and fluence with nadir angle. One interesting result is the observation of TGFs out to 50 degrees off-axis, but even more interesting is an angular flux distribution which seems to indicate that a TGF has either a very wide beam angle or that TGFs are narrow beams whose axis has a very wide angular distribution from the earth radial. Whether this indicates TGFs originate by acceleration in macro scale electric fields in storm clouds, or in the micro scale electric fields in lightning leaders, is not clear but the results do call for a more detailed analysis taking FERMI orientation into account. We have not seen any publication of this TGF off-axis angle analysis and show our results for the interest of the TGF research community.

  20. Reconstruction of particle size distributions and anisometry in polydisperse systems by the small-angle scattering method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Plavnik, G.M.

    1986-01-01

    A technique to obtain particle size distributions from small-angle scattering data is suggested. It is applicable to systems of particles of arbitrary but identical shape, roughly equiaxial particles of various shapes, and particles of unknown shape. The procedure involved in the determination of the micropore sizes in Pt+Al 2 O 3 catalysts is demonstrated. (author)

  1. Tests of Catastrophic Outlier Prediction in Empirical Photometric Redshift Estimation with Redshift Probability Distributions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Evan; Singal, Jack

    2018-01-01

    We present results of using individual galaxies' redshift probability information derived from a photometric redshift (photo-z) algorithm, SPIDERz, to identify potential catastrophic outliers in photometric redshift determinations. By using test data comprised of COSMOS multi-band photometry and known spectroscopic redshifts from the 3D-HST survey spanning a wide redshift range (0strategy in photo-z determinations using a range of flagging parameter values. These results could potentially be useful for utilization of photometric redshifts in future large scale surveys where catastrophic outliers are particularly detrimental to the science goals.

  2. Application of the full 3-D collision probability method to randomly distributed spherical fuel elements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lajoie, M-A.; Marleau, G.

    2010-01-01

    The analysis of VHTR fuel tends to be difficult when using deterministic methods currently employed in lattice codes notably because of limitations on geometry representation and the stochastic positioning of spherical elements. The method proposed here and implemented in the lattice code DRAGON is to generate the positions of multi-layered spheres using random sequential addition, and to analyze the resulting geometry using a full three-dimensional spherical collision probability method. The preliminary validation runs are consistent with results obtained using a Monte-Carlo method, for both regularly and randomly positioned pins. (author)

  3. Void probability as a function of the void's shape and scale-invariant models. [in studies of spacial galactic distribution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elizalde, E.; Gaztanaga, E.

    1992-01-01

    The dependence of counts in cells on the shape of the cell for the large scale galaxy distribution is studied. A very concrete prediction can be done concerning the void distribution for scale invariant models. The prediction is tested on a sample of the CfA catalog, and good agreement is found. It is observed that the probability of a cell to be occupied is bigger for some elongated cells. A phenomenological scale invariant model for the observed distribution of the counts in cells, an extension of the negative binomial distribution, is presented in order to illustrate how this dependence can be quantitatively determined. An original, intuitive derivation of this model is presented.

  4. Multiparameter probability distributions for heavy rainfall modeling in extreme southern Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Samuel Beskow

    2015-09-01

    New hydrological insights for the region: The Anderson–Darling and Filliben tests were the most restrictive in this study. Based on the Anderson–Darling test, it was found that the Kappa distribution presented the best performance, followed by the GEV. This finding provides evidence that these multiparameter distributions result, for the region of study, in greater accuracy for the generation of intensity–duration–frequency curves and the prediction of peak streamflows and design hydrographs. As a result, this finding can support the design of hydraulic structures and flood management in river basins.

  5. Microwave field distribution in a magic angle spinning dynamic nuclear polarization NMR probe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nanni, Emilio A; Barnes, Alexander B; Matsuki, Yoh; Woskov, Paul P; Corzilius, Björn; Griffin, Robert G; Temkin, Richard J

    2011-05-01

    We present a calculation of the microwave field distribution in a magic angle spinning (MAS) probe utilized in dynamic nuclear polarization (DNP) experiments. The microwave magnetic field (B(1S)) profile was obtained from simulations performed with the High Frequency Structure Simulator (HFSS) software suite, using a model that includes the launching antenna, the outer Kel-F stator housing coated with Ag, the RF coil, and the 4mm diameter sapphire rotor containing the sample. The predicted average B(1S) field is 13μT/W(1/2), where S denotes the electron spin. For a routinely achievable input power of 5W the corresponding value is γ(S)B(1S)=0.84MHz. The calculations provide insights into the coupling of the microwave power to the sample, including reflections from the RF coil and diffraction of the power transmitted through the coil. The variation of enhancement with rotor wall thickness was also successfully simulated. A second, simplified calculation was performed using a single pass model based on Gaussian beam propagation and Fresnel diffraction. This model provided additional physical insight and was in good agreement with the full HFSS simulation. These calculations indicate approaches to increasing the coupling of the microwave power to the sample, including the use of a converging lens and fine adjustment of the spacing of the windings of the RF coil. The present results should prove useful in optimizing the coupling of microwave power to the sample in future DNP experiments. Finally, the results of the simulation were used to predict the cross effect DNP enhancement (ϵ) vs. ω(1S)/(2π) for a sample of (13)C-urea dissolved in a 60:40 glycerol/water mixture containing the polarizing agent TOTAPOL; very good agreement was obtained between theory and experiment. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. Is extrapair mating random? On the probability distribution of extrapair young in avian broods

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brommer, Jon E.; Korsten, Peter; Bouwman, Karen A.; Berg, Mathew L.; Komdeur, Jan

    2007-01-01

    A dichotomy in female extrapair copulation (EPC) behavior, with some females seeking EPC and others not, is inferred if the observed distribution of extrapair young (EPY) over broods differs from a random process on the level of individual offspring (binomial, hypergeometrical, or Poisson). A review

  7. Sampling informative/complex a priori probability distributions using Gibbs sampling assisted by sequential simulation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Thomas Mejer; Mosegaard, Klaus; Cordua, Knud Skou

    2010-01-01

    Markov chain Monte Carlo methods such as the Gibbs sampler and the Metropolis algorithm can be used to sample the solutions to non-linear inverse problems. In principle these methods allow incorporation of arbitrarily complex a priori information, but current methods allow only relatively simple...... priors to be used. We demonstrate how sequential simulation can be seen as an application of the Gibbs sampler, and how such a Gibbs sampler assisted by sequential simulation can be used to perform a random walk generating realizations of a relatively complex random function. We propose to combine...... this algorithm with the Metropolis algorithm to obtain an efficient method for sampling posterior probability densities for nonlinear inverse problems....

  8. Combining Probability Distributions of Wind Waves and Sea Level Variations to Assess Return Periods of Coastal Floods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leijala, U.; Bjorkqvist, J. V.; Pellikka, H.; Johansson, M. M.; Kahma, K. K.

    2017-12-01

    Predicting the behaviour of the joint effect of sea level and wind waves is of great significance due to the major impact of flooding events in densely populated coastal regions. As mean sea level rises, the effect of sea level variations accompanied by the waves will be even more harmful in the future. The main challenge when evaluating the effect of waves and sea level variations is that long time series of both variables rarely exist. Wave statistics are also highly location-dependent, thus requiring wave buoy measurements and/or high-resolution wave modelling. As an initial approximation of the joint effect, the variables may be treated as independent random variables, to achieve the probability distribution of their sum. We present results of a case study based on three probability distributions: 1) wave run-up constructed from individual wave buoy measurements, 2) short-term sea level variability based on tide gauge data, and 3) mean sea level projections based on up-to-date regional scenarios. The wave measurements were conducted during 2012-2014 on the coast of city of Helsinki located in the Gulf of Finland in the Baltic Sea. The short-term sea level distribution contains the last 30 years (1986-2015) of hourly data from Helsinki tide gauge, and the mean sea level projections are scenarios adjusted for the Gulf of Finland. Additionally, we present a sensitivity test based on six different theoretical wave height distributions representing different wave behaviour in relation to sea level variations. As these wave distributions are merged with one common sea level distribution, we can study how the different shapes of the wave height distribution affect the distribution of the sum, and which one of the components is dominating under different wave conditions. As an outcome of the method, we obtain a probability distribution of the maximum elevation of the continuous water mass, which enables a flexible tool for evaluating different risk levels in the

  9. Method to measure the position offset of multiple light spots in a distributed aperture laser angle measurement system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jing, Xiaoli; Cheng, Haobo; Xu, Chunyun; Feng, Yunpeng

    2017-02-20

    In this paper, an accurate measurement method of multiple spots' position offsets on a four-quadrant detector is proposed for a distributed aperture laser angle measurement system (DALAMS). The theoretical model is put forward, as well as the corresponding calculation method. This method includes two steps. First, as the initial estimation, integral approximation is applied to fit the distributed spots' offset function; second, the Boltzmann function is employed to compensate for the estimation error to improve detection accuracy. The simulation results attest to the correctness and effectiveness of the proposed method, and tolerance synthesis analysis of DALAMS is conducted to determine the maximum uncertainties of manufacturing and installation. The maximum angle error is less than 0.08° in the prototype distributed measurement system, which shows the stability and robustness for prospective applications.

  10. Tree mortality estimates and species distribution probabilities in southeastern United States forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin A. Spetich; Zhaofei Fan; Zhen Sui; Michael Crosby; Hong S. He; Stephen R. Shifley; Theodor D. Leininger; W. Keith Moser

    2017-01-01

    Stresses to trees under a changing climate can lead to changes in forest tree survival, mortality and distribution.  For instance, a study examining the effects of human-induced climate change on forest biodiversity by Hansen and others (2001) predicted a 32% reduction in loblolly–shortleaf pine habitat across the eastern United States.  However, they also...

  11. Modeling and simulation of water flow on containment walls with inhomogeneous contact angle distribution

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Amend, Katharina; Klein, Markus [Univ. der Bundeswehr Muenchen, Neubiberg (Germany). Inst. for Numerical Methods in Aerospace Engineering

    2017-07-15

    The paper presents a three-dimensional numerical simulation for water running down inclined surfaces using OpenFOAM. This research project aims at developing a CFD model to describe the run down behavior of liquids and the resulting wash down of fission products on surfaces in the reactor containment. An empirical contact angle model with wetted history is introduced as well as a filtered randomized initial contact angle field. Simulation results are in good agreement with the experiments. Experimental Investigation on Passive.

  12. Image denoising in bidimensional empirical mode decomposition domain: the role of Student's probability distribution function.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lahmiri, Salim

    2016-03-01

    Hybridisation of the bi-dimensional empirical mode decomposition (BEMD) with denoising techniques has been proposed in the literature as an effective approach for image denoising. In this Letter, the Student's probability density function is introduced in the computation of the mean envelope of the data during the BEMD sifting process to make it robust to values that are far from the mean. The resulting BEMD is denoted tBEMD. In order to show the effectiveness of the tBEMD, several image denoising techniques in tBEMD domain are employed; namely, fourth order partial differential equation (PDE), linear complex diffusion process (LCDP), non-linear complex diffusion process (NLCDP), and the discrete wavelet transform (DWT). Two biomedical images and a standard digital image were considered for experiments. The original images were corrupted with additive Gaussian noise with three different levels. Based on peak-signal-to-noise ratio, the experimental results show that PDE, LCDP, NLCDP, and DWT all perform better in the tBEMD than in the classical BEMD domain. It is also found that tBEMD is faster than classical BEMD when the noise level is low. When it is high, the computational cost in terms of processing time is similar. The effectiveness of the presented approach makes it promising for clinical applications.

  13. Predicting Ligand Binding Sites on Protein Surfaces by 3-Dimensional Probability Density Distributions of Interacting Atoms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jian, Jhih-Wei; Elumalai, Pavadai; Pitti, Thejkiran; Wu, Chih Yuan; Tsai, Keng-Chang; Chang, Jeng-Yih; Peng, Hung-Pin; Yang, An-Suei

    2016-01-01

    Predicting ligand binding sites (LBSs) on protein structures, which are obtained either from experimental or computational methods, is a useful first step in functional annotation or structure-based drug design for the protein structures. In this work, the structure-based machine learning algorithm ISMBLab-LIG was developed to predict LBSs on protein surfaces with input attributes derived from the three-dimensional probability density maps of interacting atoms, which were reconstructed on the query protein surfaces and were relatively insensitive to local conformational variations of the tentative ligand binding sites. The prediction accuracy of the ISMBLab-LIG predictors is comparable to that of the best LBS predictors benchmarked on several well-established testing datasets. More importantly, the ISMBLab-LIG algorithm has substantial tolerance to the prediction uncertainties of computationally derived protein structure models. As such, the method is particularly useful for predicting LBSs not only on experimental protein structures without known LBS templates in the database but also on computationally predicted model protein structures with structural uncertainties in the tentative ligand binding sites. PMID:27513851

  14. The effect of vertical velocity probability distribution shape on cloud activation of aerosols: off-line calculations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tonttila, J.; Romakkaniemi, S.; Räisänen, P.; Kokkola, H.; Järvinen, H.

    2012-04-01

    Off-line calculations of cloud activation of aerosols using a probability density function (PDF) for vertical velocity (w) are performed. The focus is on the variation of the shape of the PDF using two functional formulations: the Normal distribution PDF and the Pearson type IV PDF. The Normal distribution provides a familiar example, as it has been widely used to approximate vertical velocity distributions in numerous applications, including climate models. Pearson type IV distribution provides an alternative that, to our knowledge, has not been employed before to describe the vertical velocity PDF. The advantage of the Pearson distribution is its versatility in representing skewed and more peaked distribution shapes compared to the Normal distribution, though this is obtained at the expense of increased mathematical complexity. The experiments are performed using a box model, in which the environmental conditions, including the aerosol size distribution (bi-modal) and chemical composition (ammonium-sulphate particles) are prescribed as constants. Measured size distributions comprising clean and polluted cases are used. Cloud activation of aerosols is calculated by integrating over the positive side of the PDF of w, which yields the mean number of activated particles (Nact). The mean, variance, and skewness of the PDFs along with the type of the PDF itself are altered in order to explore the effect of the PDF shape on the activation process. All experiments are repeated for three well-documented activation parameterizations: Lin & Leaitch, Abdul-Razzak & Ghan and Fountoukis & Nenes. The results show that for symmetric distributions of w (skewness = 0) there is a maximum difference of 10-15 % in Nact between the cases with w given by the Normal distribution, and the more peaked Pearson distribution. The largest differences are seen for the most polluted cases. Nact in clean cases will saturate rather quickly with respect to the maximum supersaturation and, hence

  15. Nonparametric Bayes Estimation of Distribution Functions and the Study of Probability Density Estimates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1980-06-30

    AO AObS 250 SOUTH CARO.INA UNIV COLUNSIA DEPT OF MATHENATICS CON--ETC V/6 12/I1 NONPARANETRIC BAYES ESTIMATION OF DISTRIBUTION FUNCTIONS AND TH-rTCM...WeiF4964 79-C -4YF 9. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME AND ADDRESS 0NT. SK ~ University of South Carolina, Department of IL . - Mathematics, Computer ...powerful than the sign test. The power of the test was compared with that of the sign test by computer simulations using the Marshall-Olkin bivariate

  16. Confidence limits with multiple channels and arbitrary probability distributions for sensitivity and expected background

    CERN Document Server

    Perrotta, A

    2002-01-01

    A MC method is proposed to compute upper limits, in a pure Bayesian approach, when the errors associated with the experimental sensitivity and expected background content are not Gaussian distributed or not small enough to apply usual approximations. It is relatively easy to extend the procedure to the multichannel case (for instance when different decay branching, luminosities or experiments have to be combined). Some of the searches for supersymmetric particles performed in the DELPHI experiment at the LEP electron- positron collider use such a procedure to propagate systematics into the calculation of cross-section upper limits. One of these searches is described as an example. (6 refs).

  17. Uranium concentration and distribution in six peridotite inclusions of probable mantle origin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haines, E. L.; Zartman, R. E.

    1973-01-01

    Fission-track activation was used to investigate uranium concentration and distribution in peridotite inclusions in alkali basalt from six localities. Whole-rock uranium concentrations range from 24 to 82 ng/g. Most of the uranium is uniformly distributed in the major silicate phases - olivine, orthopyroxene, and clinopyroxene. Chromian spinels may be classified into two groups on the basis of their uranium content - those which have less than 10 ng/g and those which have 100 to 150 ng/g U. In one sample accessory hydrous phases, phlogopite and hornblende, contain 130 and 300 ng/g U, respectively. The contact between the inclusion and the host basalt is usually quite sharp. Glassy or microcrystalline veinlets found in some samples contain more than 1 microgram/g. Very little uranium is associated with microcrystals of apatite. These results agree with some earlier investigators, who have concluded that suboceanic peridotites contain too little uranium to account for normal oceanic heat flow by conduction alone.

  18. Development of probability distributions for regional climate change from uncertain global mean warming and an uncertain scaling relationship

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available To produce probability distributions for regional climate change in surface temperature and precipitation, a probability distribution for global mean temperature increase has been combined with the probability distributions for the appropriate scaling variables, i.e. the changes in regional temperature/precipitation per degree global mean warming. Each scaling variable is assumed to be normally distributed. The uncertainty of the scaling relationship arises from systematic differences between the regional changes from global and regional climate model simulations and from natural variability. The contributions of these sources of uncertainty to the total variance of the scaling variable are estimated from simulated temperature and precipitation data in a suite of regional climate model experiments conducted within the framework of the EU-funded project PRUDENCE, using an Analysis Of Variance (ANOVA. For the area covered in the 2001–2004 EU-funded project SWURVE, five case study regions (CSRs are considered: NW England, the Rhine basin, Iberia, Jura lakes (Switzerland and Mauvoisin dam (Switzerland. The resulting regional climate changes for 2070–2099 vary quite significantly between CSRs, between seasons and between meteorological variables. For all CSRs, the expected warming in summer is higher than that expected for the other seasons. This summer warming is accompanied by a large decrease in precipitation. The uncertainty of the scaling ratios for temperature and precipitation is relatively large in summer because of the differences between regional climate models. Differences between the spatial climate-change patterns of global climate model simulations make significant contributions to the uncertainty of the scaling ratio for temperature. However, no meaningful contribution could be found for the scaling ratio for precipitation due to the small number of global climate models in the PRUDENCE project and natural variability, which is

  19. How to use MATLAB to fit the ex-Gaussian and other probability functions to a distribution of response times

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Denis Cousineau

    2008-03-01

    Full Text Available This article discusses how to characterize response time (RT frequency distributions in terms of probability functions and how to implement the necessary analysis tools using MATLAB. The first part of the paper discusses the general principles of maximum likelihood estimation. A detailed implementation that allows fitting the popular ex-Gaussian function is then presented followed by the results of a Monte Carlo study that shows the validity of the proposed approach. Although the main focus is the ex-Gaussian function, the general procedure described here can be used to estimate best fitting parameters of various probability functions. The proposed computational tools, written in MATLAB source code, are available through the Internet.

  20. Distribution of angle kappa measurements with Orbscan II in a population-based survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hashemi, Hassan; KhabazKhoob, Mehdi; Yazdani, Kamran; Mehravaran, Shiva; Jafarzadehpur, Ebrahim; Fotouhi, Akbar

    2010-12-01

    To determine the mean angle kappa and its determinants in the population of Tehran, Iran. In a cross-sectional survey with random cluster sampling, a total of 442 participants aged >14 years were selected from 4 municipality districts of Tehran for Orbscan acquisitions. Exclusion criteria were history of eye surgery for refractive errors, cataract or glaucoma, and use of topical medication or any type of contact lens at the time of the study. Mean angle kappa in different age and gender groups and its association with other factors was assessed. Considering the high correlation between the right and left eyes, only results of the right eyes are presented. After applying exclusion criteria, 800 eyes (399 right eyes and 401 left eyes) were examined. Mean participant age was 40.6±16.8 years (range: 14 to 81 years), and 38.8% of eyes were from men. Mean angle kappa was 5.46±1.33° in total; 5.41±1.32° in men and 5.49±1.34° in women (P=.558). It decreased significantly with age; 0.015°/year (Pangle kappa reduces with age, and the inter-gender difference is not significant. Largest angle kappas were seen among individuals with emmetropia. Angle kappas were larger in the hypermetropic population compared to the myopic population. Copyright 2010, SLACK Incorporated.

  1. Exact valence bond entanglement entropy and probability distribution in the XXX spin chain and the potts model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacobsen, J L; Saleur, H

    2008-02-29

    We determine exactly the probability distribution of the number N_(c) of valence bonds connecting a subsystem of length L>1 to the rest of the system in the ground state of the XXX antiferromagnetic spin chain. This provides, in particular, the asymptotic behavior of the valence-bond entanglement entropy S_(VB)=N_(c)ln2=4ln2/pi(2)lnL disproving a recent conjecture that this should be related with the von Neumann entropy, and thus equal to 1/3lnL. Our results generalize to the Q-state Potts model.

  2. Si-O-Si bond-angle distribution in vitreous silica from first-principles 29Si NMR analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mauri, Francesco; Pasquarello, Alfredo; Pfrommer, Bernd G.; Yoon, Young-Gui; Louie, Steven G.

    2000-01-01

    The correlation between 29 Si chemical shifts and Si-O-Si bond angles in SiO 2 is determined within density-functional theory for the full range of angles present in vitreous silica. This relation closely reproduces measured shifts of crystalline polymorphs. The knowledge of the correlation allows us to reliably extract from the experimental NMR spectrum the mean (151 degree sign ) and the standard deviation (11 degree sign ) of the Si-O-Si angular distribution of vitreous silica. In particular, we show that the Mozzi-Warren Si-O-Si angular distribution is not consistent with the NMR data. This analysis illustrates the potential of our approach for structural determinations of silicate glasses. (c) 2000 The American Physical Society

  3. Fluid-driven fracture propagation in heterogeneous media: Probability distributions of fracture trajectories

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santillán, David; Mosquera, Juan-Carlos; Cueto-Felgueroso, Luis

    2017-11-01

    Hydraulic fracture trajectories in rocks and other materials are highly affected by spatial heterogeneity in their mechanical properties. Understanding the complexity and structure of fluid-driven fractures and their deviation from the predictions of homogenized theories is a practical problem in engineering and geoscience. We conduct a Monte Carlo simulation study to characterize the influence of heterogeneous mechanical properties on the trajectories of hydraulic fractures propagating in elastic media. We generate a large number of random fields of mechanical properties and simulate pressure-driven fracture propagation using a phase-field model. We model the mechanical response of the material as that of an elastic isotropic material with heterogeneous Young modulus and Griffith energy release rate, assuming that fractures propagate in the toughness-dominated regime. Our study shows that the variance and the spatial covariance of the mechanical properties are controlling factors in the tortuousness of the fracture paths. We characterize the deviation of fracture paths from the homogenous case statistically, and conclude that the maximum deviation grows linearly with the distance from the injection point. Additionally, fracture path deviations seem to be normally distributed, suggesting that fracture propagation in the toughness-dominated regime may be described as a random walk.

  4. Characterisation of Large Disturbance Rotor Angle and Voltage Stability in Interconnected Power Networks with Distributed Wind Generation

    OpenAIRE

    Meegahapola, Lasantha; Littler, Timothy

    2015-01-01

    Wind generation in highly interconnected power networks creates local and centralised stability issues based on their proximity to conventional synchronous generators and load centres. This paper examines the large disturbance stability issues (i.e. rotor angle and voltage stability) in power networks with geographically distributed wind resources in the context of a number of dispatch scenarios based on profiles of historical wind generation for a real power network. Stability issues have be...

  5. A laser speckle sensor to measure the distribution of static torsion angles of twisted targets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rose, B.; Imam, H.; Hanson, Steen Grüner

    1998-01-01

    . A cylindrical lens serves to image the closely spaced lateral positions of the target along the twist axis onto corresponding lines of the two dimensional image sensor. Thus, every single line of the image sensor measures the torsion angle of the corresponding surface position along the twist axis of the target...

  6. The Effects of Off Take Angle on the Velocity Distribution and Rate of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The problem of excessive siltation in canals (navigation, irrigation, water supply, etc) was tackled by the Schwarz-Christoffel transformation, neglecting gravity and assuming a constant depth of flow. This implies that large off take angles will encourage more intake of sediments by the canal. In addition, it was also observed ...

  7. Influence of Off-Take Angles on Flow Distribution Pattern at Concave ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Predicting equations for the off-take discharge dependent on the off-take angles, main channel discharges, dispersion coefficients and Reynolds numbers were developed and calibrated statistically. Results of the study and predicting equations showed that the off-take discharge increased positively with increases in ...

  8. Joint Probability Distribution Function for the Electric Microfield and its Ion-Octupole Inhomogeneity Tensor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Halenka, J.; Olchawa, W.

    2005-01-01

    From experiments, see e.g. [W. Wiese, D. Kelleher, and D. Paquette, Phys. Rev. A 6, 1132 (1972); V. Helbig and K. Nich, J. Phys. B 14, 3573 (1981).; J. Halenka, Z. Phys. D 16, 1 (1990); . Djurovic, D. Nikolic, I. Savic, S. Sorge, and A.V. Demura, Phys. Rev. E 71, 036407 (2005)], results that the hydrogen lines formed in plasma with N e φ 10 16 cm -3 are asymmetrical. The inhomogeneity of ionic micro field and the higher order corrections (quadratic and next ones) in perturbation theory are the reason for such asymmetry. So far, the ion-emitter quadrupole interaction and the quadratic Stark effect have been included in calculations. The recent work shows that a significant discrepancy between calculations and measurements occurs in the wings of H-beta line in plasmas with cm -3 . It should be stressed here that e.g. for the energy operator the correction raised by the quadratic Stark effect is proportional to (where is the emitter-perturber distance) similarly as the correction caused by the emitter-perturber octupole interaction and the quadratic correction from emitter-perturber quadrupole interaction. Thus, it is obvious that a model of the profile calculation is consistent one if all the aforementioned corrections are simultaneously included. Such calculations are planned in the future paper. A statistics of the octupole inhomogeneity tensor in a plasma is necessarily needed in the first step of such calculations. For the first time the distribution functions of the octupole inhomogeneity have been calculated in this paper using the Mayer-Mayer cluster expansion method similarly as for the quadrupole function in the paper [J. Halenka, Z. Phys. D 16, 1 (1990)]. The quantity is the reduced scale of the micro field strength, where is the Holtsmark normal field and is the mean distance defined by the relationship, that is approximately equal to the mean ion-ion distance; whereas is the screening parameter, where is the electronic Debye radius. (author)

  9. Probability theory

    CERN Document Server

    S Varadhan, S R

    2001-01-01

    This volume presents topics in probability theory covered during a first-year graduate course given at the Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences. The necessary background material in measure theory is developed, including the standard topics, such as extension theorem, construction of measures, integration, product spaces, Radon-Nikodym theorem, and conditional expectation. In the first part of the book, characteristic functions are introduced, followed by the study of weak convergence of probability distributions. Then both the weak and strong limit theorems for sums of independent rando

  10. Large Quantum Probability Backflow and the Azimuthal Angle-Angular Momentum Uncertainty Relation for an Electron in a Constant Magnetic Field

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strange, P.

    2012-01-01

    In this paper we demonstrate a surprising aspect of quantum mechanics that is accessible to an undergraduate student. We discuss probability backflow for an electron in a constant magnetic field. It is shown that even for a wavepacket composed entirely of states with negative angular momentum the effective angular momentum can take on positive…

  11. Harmonic Power Angle Monitoring for Unsymmetrical Fault Diagnosis in Distribution Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Debopoma KAR RAY

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available In this paper identification of a faulty load bus has been done in a multi-bus power system for double line fault, monitoring the feeder operating points and load angles in presence of various frequencies in harmonic P-d plane. The usage of a new advanced variable slack bus incorporated converged power flow analysis determines the load angle, real power and feeder operating points for normal and fault in various load buses of the network in presence of some chosen harmonic frequencies in the system. The characteristic operating point shifting of the normal and fault operating points in normal and fault P-d planes, determines the rule sets for identifying the fault buses in the grid system considered. This analysis can also be extended for other fault analysis in both online and offline conditions of the system.

  12. Pattern recognition in spaces of probability distributions for the analysis of edge-localized modes in tokamak plasmas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shabbir, Aqsa

    2016-01-01

    In this doctoral work, pattern recognition techniques are developed and applied to data from tokamak plasmas, in order to contribute to a systematic analysis of edge-localized modes (ELMs). We employ probabilistic models for a quantitative data description geared towards an enhanced systematization of ELM phenomenology. Hence, we start from the point of view that the fundamental object resulting from the observation of a system is a probability distribution, with every single measurement providing a sample from this distribution. In exploring the patterns emerging from the various ELM regimes and relations, we need methods that can handle the intrinsic probabilistic nature of the data. The original contributions of this work are twofold. First, several novel pattern recognition methods in non-Euclidean spaces of probability distribution functions (PDFs) are developed and validated. The second main contribution lies in the application of these and other techniques to a systematic analysis of ELMs in tokamak plasmas. In regard to the methodological aims of the work, we employ the framework of information geometry to develop pattern visualization and classification methods in spaces of probability distributions. In information geometry, a family of probability distributions is considered as a Riemannian manifold. Every point on the manifold represents a single PDF and the distribution parameters provide local coordinates on the manifold. The Fisher information plays the role of a Riemannian metric tensor, enabling calculation of geodesic curves on the surface. The length of such curves yields the geodesic distance (GD) on probabilistic manifolds, which is a natural similarity (distance) measure between PDFs. Equipped with a suitable distance measure, we extrapolate several distance-based pattern recognition methods to the manifold setting. This includes k-nearest neighbor (kNN) and conformal predictor (CP) methods for classification, as well as multidimensional

  13. Relativistic electron's butterfly pitch angle distribution modulated by localized background magnetic field perturbation driven by hot ring current ions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiong, Ying; Chen, Lunjin; Xie, Lun; Fu, Suiyan; Xia, Zhiyang; Pu, Zuyin

    2017-05-01

    Dayside modulated relativistic electron's butterfly pitch angle distributions (PADs) from ˜200 keV to 2.6 MeV were observed by Van Allen Probe B at L = 5.3 on 15 November 2013. They were associated with localized magnetic dip driven by hot ring current ion (60-100 keV proton and 60-200 keV helium and oxygen) injections. We reproduce the electron's butterfly PADs at satellite's location using test particle simulation. The simulation results illustrate that a negative radial flux gradient contributes primarily to the formation of the modulated electron's butterfly PADs through inward transport due to the inductive electric field, while deceleration due to the inductive electric field and pitch angle change also makes in part contribution. We suggest that localized magnetic field perturbation, which is a frequent phenomenon in the magnetosphere during magnetic disturbances, is of great importance for creating electron's butterfly PADs in the Earth's radiation belts.

  14. A Case Series of the Probability Density and Cumulative Distribution of Laryngeal Disease in a Tertiary Care Voice Center.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de la Fuente, Jaime; Garrett, C Gaelyn; Ossoff, Robert; Vinson, Kim; Francis, David O; Gelbard, Alexander

    2017-11-01

    To examine the distribution of clinic and operative pathology in a tertiary care laryngology practice. Probability density and cumulative distribution analyses (Pareto analysis) was used to rank order laryngeal conditions seen in an outpatient tertiary care laryngology practice and those requiring surgical intervention during a 3-year period. Among 3783 new clinic consultations and 1380 operative procedures, voice disorders were the most common primary diagnostic category seen in clinic (n = 3223), followed by airway (n = 374) and swallowing (n = 186) disorders. Within the voice strata, the most common primary ICD-9 code used was dysphonia (41%), followed by unilateral vocal fold paralysis (UVFP) (9%) and cough (7%). Among new voice patients, 45% were found to have a structural abnormality. The most common surgical indications were laryngotracheal stenosis (37%), followed by recurrent respiratory papillomatosis (18%) and UVFP (17%). Nearly 55% of patients presenting to a tertiary referral laryngology practice did not have an identifiable structural abnormality in the larynx on direct or indirect examination. The distribution of ICD-9 codes requiring surgical intervention was disparate from that seen in clinic. Application of the Pareto principle may improve resource allocation in laryngology, but these initial results require confirmation across multiple institutions.

  15. Finite Element Analysis of the Effect of Superstructure Materials and Loading Angle on Stress Distribution around the Implant

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jafari K

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Statement of Problem: A general process in implant design is to determine the reason of possible problems and to find the relevant solutions. The success of the implant depends on the control technique of implant biomechanical conditions. Objectives: The goal of this study was to evaluate the influence of both abutment and framework materials on the stress of the bone around the implant by using threedimensional finite element analysis. Materials and Methods: A three-dimensional model of a patient’s premaxillary bone was fabricated using Cone Beam Computed Tomography (CBCT. Then, three types of abutment from gold, nickel-chromium and zirconia and also three types of crown frame from silver-palladium, nickel-chromium and zirconia were designed. Finally, a 178 N force at angles of zero, 30 and 45 degrees was exerted on the implant axis and the maximum stress and strain in the trabecular, cortical bones and cement was calculated. Results: With changes of the materials and mechanical properties of abutment and frame, little difference was observed in the level and distribution pattern of stress. The stress level was increased with the rise in the angle of pressure exertion. The highest stress concentration was related to the force at the angle of 45 degrees. The results of the cement analysis proved an inverse relationship between the rate of elastic modulus of the frame material and that of the maximum stress in the cement. Conclusions: The impact of the angle at which the force was applied was more significant in stress distribution than that of abutment and framework core materials.

  16. Forecasting the Stock Market with Linguistic Rules Generated from the Minimize Entropy Principle and the Cumulative Probability Distribution Approaches

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chung-Ho Su

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available To forecast a complex and non-linear system, such as a stock market, advanced artificial intelligence algorithms, like neural networks (NNs and genetic algorithms (GAs have been proposed as new approaches. However, for the average stock investor, two major disadvantages are argued against these advanced algorithms: (1 the rules generated by NNs and GAs are difficult to apply in investment decisions; and (2 the time complexity of the algorithms to produce forecasting outcomes is very high. Therefore, to provide understandable rules for investors and to reduce the time complexity of forecasting algorithms, this paper proposes a novel model for the forecasting process, which combines two granulating methods (the minimize entropy principle approach and the cumulative probability distribution approach and a rough set algorithm. The model verification demonstrates that the proposed model surpasses the three listed conventional fuzzy time-series models and a multiple regression model (MLR in forecast accuracy.

  17. Autoregressive processes with exponentially decaying probability distribution functions: applications to daily variations of a stock market index.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Porto, Markus; Roman, H Eduardo

    2002-04-01

    We consider autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH) processes in which the variance sigma(2)(y) depends linearly on the absolute value of the random variable y as sigma(2)(y) = a+b absolute value of y. While for the standard model, where sigma(2)(y) = a + b y(2), the corresponding probability distribution function (PDF) P(y) decays as a power law for absolute value of y-->infinity, in the linear case it decays exponentially as P(y) approximately exp(-alpha absolute value of y), with alpha = 2/b. We extend these results to the more general case sigma(2)(y) = a+b absolute value of y(q), with 0 process is taken into account, the resulting PDF becomes a stretched exponential even for q = 1, with a stretched exponent beta = 2/3, in a much better agreement with the empirical data.

  18. Updated greenhouse gas and criteria air pollutant emission factors and their probability distribution functions for electricity generating units

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cai, H.; Wang, M.; Elgowainy, A.; Han, J. (Energy Systems)

    2012-07-06

    Greenhouse gas (CO{sub 2}, CH{sub 4} and N{sub 2}O, hereinafter GHG) and criteria air pollutant (CO, NO{sub x}, VOC, PM{sub 10}, PM{sub 2.5} and SO{sub x}, hereinafter CAP) emission factors for various types of power plants burning various fuels with different technologies are important upstream parameters for estimating life-cycle emissions associated with alternative vehicle/fuel systems in the transportation sector, especially electric vehicles. The emission factors are typically expressed in grams of GHG or CAP per kWh of electricity generated by a specific power generation technology. This document describes our approach for updating and expanding GHG and CAP emission factors in the GREET (Greenhouse Gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy Use in Transportation) model developed at Argonne National Laboratory (see Wang 1999 and the GREET website at http://greet.es.anl.gov/main) for various power generation technologies. These GHG and CAP emissions are used to estimate the impact of electricity use by stationary and transportation applications on their fuel-cycle emissions. The electricity generation mixes and the fuel shares attributable to various combustion technologies at the national, regional and state levels are also updated in this document. The energy conversion efficiencies of electric generating units (EGUs) by fuel type and combustion technology are calculated on the basis of the lower heating values of each fuel, to be consistent with the basis used in GREET for transportation fuels. On the basis of the updated GHG and CAP emission factors and energy efficiencies of EGUs, the probability distribution functions (PDFs), which are functions that describe the relative likelihood for the emission factors and energy efficiencies as random variables to take on a given value by the integral of their own probability distributions, are updated using best-fit statistical curves to characterize the uncertainties associated with GHG and CAP emissions in life

  19. Distribution of ice particle surface roughness inferred from the multi-angle polarimetry by the POLDER

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hioki, S.; Yang, P.; King, M. D.; Riedi, J.

    2017-12-01

    While ice clouds are ubiquitous, the maximum cloudiness is observed in the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and the mid-latitude storm tracks. The updraft speed in clouds and the growth process of ice particles in these two regions are known to be different. Although in-situ measurements show distinct differences of crystal morphology between tropical and mid-latitude ice clouds, passive spaceborne measurements for quantifying the aforementioned differences at the global scale are scarce. In this presentation, we will illustrate an EOF-based method to quantify the particle overall shape and the degree of roughness with several independent variables. We also demonstrate the retrievals of these variables based on multi-angle polarimetric measurements (specifically, observations made by the Polarization and Directionality of the Earth's Reflectance (POLDER) instrument) in conjunction with radiative transfer simulations. In addition, data from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) are collocated to the POLDER data for identifying the cloud types and vertical structures. We show significant differences between tropical and extratropical ice clouds in the present retrievals. Furthermore, we discuss the effects of solar direction, satellite measurement angle, and cloud inhomogeneity on the retrieval differences.

  20. Constructing probability distributions of uncertain variables in models of the performance of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant: The 1990 performance simulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tierney, M.S.

    1990-12-01

    A five-step procedure was used in the 1990 performance simulations to construct probability distributions of the uncertain variables appearing in the mathematical models used to simulate the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant's (WIPP's) performance. This procedure provides a consistent approach to the construction of probability distributions in cases where empirical data concerning a variable are sparse or absent and minimizes the amount of spurious information that is often introduced into a distribution by assumptions of nonspecialists. The procedure gives first priority to the professional judgment of subject-matter experts and emphasizes the use of site-specific empirical data for the construction of the probability distributions when such data are available. In the absence of sufficient empirical data, the procedure employs the Maximum Entropy Formalism and the subject-matter experts' subjective estimates of the parameters of the distribution to construct a distribution that can be used in a performance simulation. (author)

  1. A bioinformatic survey of distribution, conservation, and probable functions of LuxR solo regulators in bacteria.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Subramoni, Sujatha; Florez Salcedo, Diana Vanessa; Suarez-Moreno, Zulma R

    2015-01-01

    LuxR solo transcriptional regulators contain both an autoinducer binding domain (ABD; N-terminal) and a DNA binding Helix-Turn-Helix domain (HTH; C-terminal), but are not associated with a cognate N-acyl homoserine lactone (AHL) synthase coding gene in the same genome. Although a few LuxR solos have been characterized, their distributions as well as their role in bacterial signal perception and other processes are poorly understood. In this study we have carried out a systematic survey of distribution of all ABD containing LuxR transcriptional regulators (QS domain LuxRs) available in the InterPro database (IPR005143), and identified those lacking a cognate AHL synthase. These LuxR solos were then analyzed regarding their taxonomical distribution, predicted functions of neighboring genes and the presence of complete AHL-QS systems in the genomes that carry them. Our analyses reveal the presence of one or multiple predicted LuxR solos in many proteobacterial genomes carrying QS domain LuxRs, some of them harboring genes for one or more AHL-QS circuits. The presence of LuxR solos in bacteria occupying diverse environments suggests potential ecological functions for these proteins beyond AHL and interkingdom signaling. Based on gene context and the conservation levels of invariant amino acids of ABD, we have classified LuxR solos into functionally meaningful groups or putative orthologs. Surprisingly, putative LuxR solos were also found in a few non-proteobacterial genomes which are not known to carry AHL-QS systems. Multiple predicted LuxR solos in the same genome appeared to have different levels of conservation of invariant amino acid residues of ABD questioning their binding to AHLs. In summary, this study provides a detailed overview of distribution of LuxR solos and their probable roles in bacteria with genome sequence information.

  2. Exit angle, energy loss and internuclear distance distributions of H2+ ions dissociated when traversing different materials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garcia-Molina, Rafael; Abril, Isabel; Denton, Cristian D.; Arista, Nestor R.

    2000-01-01

    We have performed computer simulations of the trajectory followed by each proton resulting from the dissociation of H 2 + molecules when traversing a thin solid target. We use the dielectric formalism to describe the forces due to electronic excitations in the medium, and we also consider the Coulomb repulsion between the pair of protons. Nuclear collisions with target nuclei are incorporated through a Monte Carlo code and the effect of the coherent scattering is taken into account by means of an effective force model. The distributions of exit angle, energy loss and internuclear separations of the protons fragments are discussed for the case of amorphous carbon and aluminum targets

  3. Determination of the spatial distribution of multiple fluid phases in porous media by ultra-small-angle neutron scattering

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kainourgiakis, M.; Steriotis, Th. [National Center for Scientific Research ' Demokritos' , 15310 Ag. Paraskevi Attikis, Athens (Greece); Charalambopoulou, G., E-mail: gchar@chem.demokritos.gr [National Center for Scientific Research ' Demokritos' , 15310 Ag. Paraskevi Attikis, Athens (Greece); Strobl, M. [Helmholtz Zentrum Berlin fuer Materialien und Energie, Lise Meitner Campus, Hahn-Meitner-Platz 1, D-14109 Berlin (Germany); Stubos, A. [National Center for Scientific Research ' Demokritos' , 15310 Ag. Paraskevi Attikis, Athens (Greece)

    2010-06-15

    In the present work contrast-matching USANS (ultra-small-angle neutron scattering) was employed in order to determine the spatial distribution of immiscible fluids confined within a macroporous {alpha}-Al{sub 2}O{sub 3} membrane. Water-air as well as water-hydrocarbon and hydrocarbon-air systems were examined and the analysis of the results, also on the basis of a complementary numerical study provided significant information on the behaviour of the multiphase ensemble as it has been demonstrated that the individual fluids occupy certain positions in the pore space, regardless of the actual values of the respective interfacial properties.

  4. Determination of the spatial distribution of multiple fluid phases in porous media by ultra-small-angle neutron scattering

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kainourgiakis, M.; Steriotis, Th.; Charalambopoulou, G.; Strobl, M.; Stubos, A.

    2010-01-01

    In the present work contrast-matching USANS (ultra-small-angle neutron scattering) was employed in order to determine the spatial distribution of immiscible fluids confined within a macroporous α-Al 2 O 3 membrane. Water-air as well as water-hydrocarbon and hydrocarbon-air systems were examined and the analysis of the results, also on the basis of a complementary numerical study provided significant information on the behaviour of the multiphase ensemble as it has been demonstrated that the individual fluids occupy certain positions in the pore space, regardless of the actual values of the respective interfacial properties.

  5. Sunspot cycle-dependent changes in the distribution of GSE latitudinal angles of IMF observed near 1 AU

    Science.gov (United States)

    Felix Pereira, B.; Girish, T. E.

    2004-05-01

    The solar cycle variations in the characteristics of the GSE latitudinal angles of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field ($\\theta$GSE) observed near 1 AU have been studied for the period 1967-2000. It is observed that the statistical parameters mean, standard deviation, skewness and kurtosis vary with sunspot cycle. The $\\theta$GSE distribution resembles the Gaussian curve during sunspot maximum and is clearly non-Gaussian during sunspot minimum. The width of the $\\theta$GSE distribution is found to increase with sunspot activity, which is likely to depend on the occurrence of solar transients. Solar cycle variations in skewness are ordered by the solar polar magnetic field changes. This can be explained in terms of the dependence of the dominant polarity of the north-south component of IMF in the GSE system near 1 AU on the IMF sector polarity and the structure of the heliospheric current sheet.

  6. The power of hard-sphere models: explaining side-chain dihedral angle distributions of Thr and Val.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Alice Qinhua; O'Hern, Corey S; Regan, Lynne

    2012-05-16

    The energy functions used to predict protein structures typically include both molecular-mechanics and knowledge-based terms. In contrast, our approach is to develop robust physics- and geometry-based methods. Here, we investigate to what extent simple hard-sphere models can be used to predict side-chain conformations. The distributions of the side-chain dihedral angle χ(1) of Val and Thr in proteins of known structure show distinctive features: Val side chains predominantly adopt χ(1) = 180°, whereas Thr side chains typically adopt χ(1) = 60° and 300° (i.e., χ(1) = ±60° or g- and g(+) configurations). Several hypotheses have been proposed to explain these differences, including interresidue steric clashes and hydrogen-bonding interactions. In contrast, we show that the observed side-chain dihedral angle distributions for both Val and Thr can be explained using only local steric interactions in a dipeptide mimetic. Our results emphasize the power of simple physical approaches and their importance for future advances in protein engineering and design. Copyright © 2012 Biophysical Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. Energy distributions of plume ions from silver at different angles ablated in vacuum

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Bo Toftmann; Schou, Jørgen; Canulescu, Stela

    be comparatively difficult to measure the energy and angular distribution of neutrals, measurements of the ionic fraction will be valuable for any modeling of PLD. We have irradiated silver in a vacuum chamber (~ 10-7 mbar) with a Nd:YAG laser at a wavelength of 355 nm and made detailed measurements of the time...

  8. Angle-resolved energy distributions of laser ablated silver ions in vacuum

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, T.N.; Schou, Jørgen; Lunney, J.G.

    1998-01-01

    The energy distributions of ions ablated from silver in vacuum have been measured in situ for pulsed laser irradiation at 355 nm. We have determined the energy spectra for directions ranging from 5 degrees to 75 degrees with respect to the normal in the intensity range from 100 to 400 MW/cm(2...

  9. Remote Sensing of Spatial Distributions of Greenhouse Gases in the Los Angles Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fu, Dejian; Pongetti, Thomas J.; Sander, Stanley P.; Cheung, Ross; Stutz, Jochen; Park, Chang Hyoun; Li, Qinbin

    2011-01-01

    The Los Angeles air basin is a significant anthropogenic source of greenhouse gases and pollutants including CO2, CH4, N2O, and CO, contributing significantly to regional and global climate change. Recent legislation in California, the California Global Warming Solutions Act (AB32), established a statewide cap for greenhouse gas emissions for 2020 based on 1990 emissions. Verifying the effectiveness of regional greenhouse gas emissions controls requires high-precision, regional-scale measurement methods combined with models that capture the principal anthropogenic and biogenic sources and sinks. We present a novel approach for monitoring the spatial distributions of greenhouse gases in the Los Angeles basin using high resolution remote sensing spectroscopy. We participated in the CalNex 2010 campaign to provide greenhouse gas distributions for comparison between top-down and bottom-up emission estimates.

  10. Dependence of spiral galaxy distribution on viewing angle in RC3.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Jun; Song, Guoxuan; Cheng, Shugang

    The normalized inclination distributions are presented for the spiral galaxies in RC3. The results show that, except for the bin of 81° - 90°, in which the apparent minor isophotal diameters that are used to obtain the inclinations are affected by the central bulges, the distributions for Sa, Sab, Scd and Sd are well consistent with the Monte-Carlo simulation of random inclinations within 3-σ, and Sb and Sbc almost, but Sc is different. One reason for the difference between the real distribution and the Monte-Carlo simulation of Sc may be that some quite inclined spirals, the arms of which are inherently loosely wound on the galactic plane and should be classified to Sc galaxies, have been incorrectly classified to the earlier ones, because the tightness of spiral arms which is one of the criteria of the Hubble classification in RC3 is different between on the galactic plane and on the tangent plane of the celestial sphere. The authors' result also implies that there might exist biases in the luminosity functions of individual Hubble types if spiral galaxies are only classified visually.

  11. Analyses of moments in pseudorapidity intervals at √s = 546 GeV by means of two probability distributions in pure-birth process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Biyajima, M.; Shirane, K.; Suzuki, N.

    1988-01-01

    Moments in pseudorapidity intervals at the CERN Sp-barpS collider (√s = 546 GeV) are analyzed by means of two probability distributions in the pure-birth stochastic process. Our results show that a probability distribution obtained from the Poisson distribution as an initial condition is more useful than that obtained from the Kronecker δ function. Analyses of moments by Koba-Nielsen-Olesen scaling functions derived from solutions of the pure-birth stochastic process are also made. Moreover, analyses of preliminary data at √s = 200 and 900 GeV are added

  12. Determination of the cleat angle distribution of the RECOPOL coal seams, using CT-scans and image analysis on drilling cuttings and coal blocks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wolf, Karl-Heinz A.A.; Ephraim, Rudy [Delft University of Technology, Department of Geotechnology, Stevinweg 1, 2628 CN, Delft (Netherlands); van Bergen, Frank; Pagnier, Henk [TNO, Princetonlaan 6, 3584 CB, Utrecht (Netherlands)

    2008-02-01

    Cleat orientation, cleat frequency and cleat angle distribution of deep coal seams are only available by the use of drilling cores and from coal mine samples. Coal drilling cuttings are a cheap and fast alternative to measure cleat angle distributions with the use of image analysis techniques. In this study oriented coal samples and drilling cuttings of the RECOPOL field experiment are compared and used to explain and validate the proposed method. In other words, cleat angle distributions from drilling cuttings are measured by image analysis. The geological framework of the polish coals is described. The image analysis methodologies for the measurement of fracture faces of cuttings and from CT-scan images, derived from these coals, are explained. The results of the methods on the cuttings are compared with cleat orientation distributions from CT-scans and artificial fragments from coal blocks of the same seams. These evaluations show high agreements between the methods. The cleat angle distributions of drilling cuttings of four seams are compared with the cleat orientation distributions of a regional structural geological study. The high correlation in this study shows that cleat angle distributions of coal seams can be used as input parameters for reservoir modelling. (author)

  13. Combining scenarios in a calculation of the overall probability distribution of cumulative releases of radioactivity from the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant, southeastern New Mexico

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tierney, M.S.

    1991-11-01

    The Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP), in southeastern New Mexico, is a research and development facility to demonstrate safe disposal of defense-generated transuranic waste. The US Department of Energy will designate WIPP as a disposal facility if it meets the US Environmental Protection Agency's standard for disposal of such waste; the standard includes a requirement that estimates of cumulative releases of radioactivity to the accessible environment be incorporated in an overall probability distribution. The WIPP Project has chosen an approach to calculation of an overall probability distribution that employs the concept of scenarios for release and transport of radioactivity to the accessible environment. This report reviews the use of Monte Carlo methods in the calculation of an overall probability distribution and presents a logical and mathematical foundation for use of the scenario concept in such calculations. The report also draws preliminary conclusions regarding the shape of the probability distribution for the WIPP system; preliminary conclusions are based on the possible occurrence of three events and the presence of one feature: namely, the events attempted boreholes over rooms and drifts,'' mining alters ground-water regime,'' water-withdrawal wells provide alternate pathways,'' and the feature brine pocket below room or drift.'' Calculation of the WIPP systems's overall probability distributions for only five of sixteen possible scenario classes that can be obtained by combining the four postulated events or features.

  14. Combining scenarios in a calculation of the overall probability distribution of cumulative releases of radioactivity from the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant, southeastern New Mexico

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tierney, M.S.

    1991-11-01

    The Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP), in southeastern New Mexico, is a research and development facility to demonstrate safe disposal of defense-generated transuranic waste. The US Department of Energy will designate WIPP as a disposal facility if it meets the US Environmental Protection Agency's standard for disposal of such waste; the standard includes a requirement that estimates of cumulative releases of radioactivity to the accessible environment be incorporated in an overall probability distribution. The WIPP Project has chosen an approach to calculation of an overall probability distribution that employs the concept of scenarios for release and transport of radioactivity to the accessible environment. This report reviews the use of Monte Carlo methods in the calculation of an overall probability distribution and presents a logical and mathematical foundation for use of the scenario concept in such calculations. The report also draws preliminary conclusions regarding the shape of the probability distribution for the WIPP system; preliminary conclusions are based on the possible occurrence of three events and the presence of one feature: namely, the events ''attempted boreholes over rooms and drifts,'' ''mining alters ground-water regime,'' ''water-withdrawal wells provide alternate pathways,'' and the feature ''brine pocket below room or drift.'' Calculation of the WIPP systems's overall probability distributions for only five of sixteen possible scenario classes that can be obtained by combining the four postulated events or features

  15. Equal Angle Distribution of Polling Directions in Direct-Search Methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Benjamin Van Dyke

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is twofold: first, to introduce deterministic strategies for directional direct-search methods, including new instances of the mesh adaptive direct-search (MADS and the generating set search (GSS class of algorithms, which utilize a nice distribution of PoLL directions when compared to other strategies, and second, to introduce variants of each algorithm which utilize a minimal positive basis at each step. The strategies base their PoLL directions on the use of the QR decomposition to obtain an orthogonal set of directions or on using the equal angular directions from a regular simplex centered at the origin with vertices on the unit sphere. Test results are presented on a set of smooth, nonsmooth, unconstrained, and constrained problems that give comparisons between the various implementations of these directional direct-search methods.

  16. Detection of homogeneous distribution of functional groups in mesoporous silica by small angle neutron scattering and in situ adsorption of nitrogen or water.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharifi, Monir; Marschall, Roland; Wilhelm, Michaela; Wallacher, Dirk; Wark, Michael

    2011-05-03

    The distribution of SO(3)H-functional groups attached to the ordered inner pore walls of mesoporous Si-MCM-41 materials based on SiO(2) was investigated by gas adsorption combined with in situ small angle neutron scattering (SANS). The functionalization was performed by two different methods, (i) grafting and (ii) co-condensation. The adsorbates N(2) at 77 K or a H(2)O/D(2)O mixture of 42:58 at 298 K possess neutron scattering length densities (SLD) similar to that of SiO(2) and therefore quench the diffraction signals of the nonmodified silica. SANS measurements show that N(2) matches completely not only with the pristine mesoporous Si-MCM-41 but also with Si-MCM-41-SO(3)H functionalized by grafting. Thus, full access of adsorbate into the entire length of the pores is proven. For the analysis of the distribution of functional groups within the pores in dependence on the used functionalization method, grafting or co-condensation, however, the more specific adsorbate H(2)O/D(2)O (42:58) is necessary, because it reacts more sensitively toward small changes in the SLD of the host material. For grafted Si-MCM-41-SO(3)H materials, an incomplete quenching was observed, indicating that only some regions, probably the pore mouths, have been modified. For a sample functionalized by co-condensation, almost no quenching of the neutron diffraction was found, indicating a very homogeneous distribution of the functional groups along the entire pores.

  17. Energetic electron pitch angle distribution parameters at 6.6 Re, as deduced from GOES X-ray observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia, H. A.

    1996-05-01

    X-ray sensors that measure the Sun's radiant output in two soft X-ray channels, 1-8 and 0.5-4 Å, are carried on all GOES geostationary equatorial weather satellites. A comparison of X-ray measurements from two co-operational GOES reveals a systematic difference signal that shows periodic diurnal and seasonal variations. These effects are seen during geomagnetically quiet times as well as disturbed times and are most noticeable when solar activity is low to moderate. The GOES orbit lies just above the main outer electron belt of the van Allen radiation belts but it falls inside the region containing >2MeV trapped electrons; thus the local particle environment includes electrons of sufficient energy to cause significant Bremsstrahlung on the walls of the ion chamber as well as direct deposition of energy through the entrance aperture. These background effects occur despite passive shielding of the ion chambers and in-orbit electronic suppression of the spurious particle contribution. However, because of the regularity of the difference signal it is possible to exploit this X-ray contaminant to infer certain properties of the energetic electron pitch angle distribution in anisotropy and in local time, on the assumption that these energetic electrons are responsible for the spurious X-ray detector response. The basic attributes of the observed diurnal and seasonal effects can be re-created in a model that incorporates a tilted dipole magnetosphere and local-time-dependent, generic pitch angle distributions. It is possible to infer the anisotropy index, n, for dayside sin n(α) distributions and the anisotropy index, m, for nightside sin m(2α) butterfly distributions as well as the local times where these distributions convert from normal loss-cone to butterfly in the afternoon and return to normal loss-cone in the morning. Examples of the diurnal and seasonal variations in the observed X-ray difference signal are shown, and these waveforms are re-created by a model

  18. Pitch angle distribution of trapped energetic protons and helium isotope nuclei measured along the Resurs-01 No. 4 LEO satellite

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Leonov

    2005-11-01

    Full Text Available The NINA detector on board the Resurs-01 No. 4 satellite (835 km, 98° inclination is equipped with particle trackers based on silicon strip detectors. From the energy deposited in each of its silicon layers the mass, the momentum direction and energy of incident particles have been determined. The resolutions in mass and energy allow identification of H and He isotopes over the 10-50 MeV/n energy range. The angular resolution is about 2.5°. We present the direct measurements of proton and helium isotopes pitch angle distributions derived from Resurs-01 No.4/NINA observations and their variations as functions of (B, L coordinates and energy. The measurements of trapped helium isotopes spectrum are also presented.

  19. Quantitative spatial magnetization distribution in iron oxide nanocubes and nanospheres by polarized small-angle neutron scattering

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Disch, S; Hermann, R P; Brückel, Th; Wetterskog, E; Salazar-Alvarez, G; Bergström, L; Wiedenmann, A; Vainio, U

    2012-01-01

    By means of polarized small-angle neutron scattering, we have resolved the long-standing challenge of determining the magnetization distribution in magnetic nanoparticles in absolute units. The reduced magnetization, localized in non-interacting nanoparticles, indicates strongly particle shape- dependent surface spin canting with a 0.3(1) and 0.5(1) nm thick surface shell of reduced magnetization found for ∼9 nm nanospheres and ∼8.5 nm nanocubes, respectively. Further, the reduced macroscopic magnetization in nanoparticles results not only from surface spin canting, but also from drastically reduced magnetization inside the uniformly magnetized core as compared to the bulk material. Our microscopic results explain the low macroscopic magnetization commonly found in nanoparticles. (paper)

  20. Asymmetric distribution of cone-shaped lipids in a highly curved bilayer revealed by a small angle neutron scattering technique.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sakuma, Y; Urakami, N; Taniguchi, T; Imai, M

    2011-07-20

    We have investigated the lipid sorting in a binary small unilamellar vesicle (SUV) composed of cone-shaped (1,2-dihexanoyl-sn-glycero-3-phosphocholine: DHPC) and cylinder-shaped (1,2-dipalmitoyl-sn-glycero-3-phosphocholine: DPPC) lipids. In order to reveal the lipid sorting we adopted a contrast matching technique of small angle neutron scattering (SANS), which extracts the distribution of deuterated lipids in the bilayer quantitatively without steric modification of lipids as in fluorescence probe techniques. First the SANS profile of protonated SUVs at a film contrast condition showed that SUVs have a spherical shape with an inner radius of 190 Å and a bilayer thickness of 40 Å. The SANS profile of deuterated SUVs at a contrast matching condition showed a characteristic scattering profile, indicating an asymmetric distribution of cone-shaped lipids in the bilayer. The characteristic profile was described well by a spherical bilayer model. The fitting revealed that most DHPC molecules are localized in the outer leaflet. Thus the shape of the lipid is strongly coupled with the membrane curvature. We compared the obtained asymmetric distribution of the cone-shaped lipids in the bilayer with the theoretical prediction based on the curvature energy model.

  1. Prediction of Carbohydrate Binding Sites on Protein Surfaces with 3-Dimensional Probability Density Distributions of Interacting Atoms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsai, Keng-Chang; Jian, Jhih-Wei; Yang, Ei-Wen; Hsu, Po-Chiang; Peng, Hung-Pin; Chen, Ching-Tai; Chen, Jun-Bo; Chang, Jeng-Yih; Hsu, Wen-Lian; Yang, An-Suei

    2012-01-01

    Non-covalent protein-carbohydrate interactions mediate molecular targeting in many biological processes. Prediction of non-covalent carbohydrate binding sites on protein surfaces not only provides insights into the functions of the query proteins; information on key carbohydrate-binding residues could suggest site-directed mutagenesis experiments, design therapeutics targeting carbohydrate-binding proteins, and provide guidance in engineering protein-carbohydrate interactions. In this work, we show that non-covalent carbohydrate binding sites on protein surfaces can be predicted with relatively high accuracy when the query protein structures are known. The prediction capabilities were based on a novel encoding scheme of the three-dimensional probability density maps describing the distributions of 36 non-covalent interacting atom types around protein surfaces. One machine learning model was trained for each of the 30 protein atom types. The machine learning algorithms predicted tentative carbohydrate binding sites on query proteins by recognizing the characteristic interacting atom distribution patterns specific for carbohydrate binding sites from known protein structures. The prediction results for all protein atom types were integrated into surface patches as tentative carbohydrate binding sites based on normalized prediction confidence level. The prediction capabilities of the predictors were benchmarked by a 10-fold cross validation on 497 non-redundant proteins with known carbohydrate binding sites. The predictors were further tested on an independent test set with 108 proteins. The residue-based Matthews correlation coefficient (MCC) for the independent test was 0.45, with prediction precision and sensitivity (or recall) of 0.45 and 0.49 respectively. In addition, 111 unbound carbohydrate-binding protein structures for which the structures were determined in the absence of the carbohydrate ligands were predicted with the trained predictors. The overall

  2. Control of the Diameter and Chiral Angle Distributions during Production of Single-Wall Carbon Nanotubes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nikolaev, Pavel

    2009-01-01

    Many applications of single wall carbon nanotubes (SWCNT), especially in microelectronics, will benefit from use of certain (n,m) nanotube types (metallic, small gap semiconductor, etc.) Especially fascinating is the possibility of quantum conductors that require metallic armchair nanotubes. However, as produced SWCNT samples are polydisperse, with many (n,m) types present and typical approx.1:2 metal/semiconductor ratio. Nanotube nucleation models predict that armchair nuclei are energetically preferential due to formation of partial triple bonds along the armchair edge. However, nuclei can not reach any meaningful thermal equilibrium in a rapidly expanding and cooling plume of carbon clusters, leading to polydispersity. In the present work, SWCNTs were produced by a pulsed laser vaporization (PLV) technique. The carbon vapor plume cooling rate was either increased by change in the oven temperature (expansion into colder gas), or decreased via "warm-up" with a laser pulse at the moment of nucleation. The effect of oven temperature and "warm-up" on nanotube type population was studied via photoluminescence, UV-Vis-NIR absorption and Raman spectroscopy. It was found that reduced temperatures leads to smaller average diameters, progressively narrower diameter distributions, and some preference toward armchair structures. "Warm-up" shifts nanotube population towards arm-chair structures as well, but the effect is small. Possible improvement of the "warm-up" approach to produce armchair SWCNTs will be discussed. These results demonstrate that PLV production technique can provide at least partial control over the nanotube (n,m) population. In addition, these results have implications for the understanding the nanotube nucleation mechanism in the laser oven.

  3. Estimating the probability distribution of the incubation period for rabies using data from the 1948-1954 rabies epidemic in Tokyo.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tojinbara, Kageaki; Sugiura, K; Yamada, A; Kakitani, I; Kwan, N C L; Sugiura, K

    2016-01-01

    Data of 98 rabies cases in dogs and cats from the 1948-1954 rabies epidemic in Tokyo were used to estimate the probability distribution of the incubation period. Lognormal, gamma and Weibull distributions were used to model the incubation period. The maximum likelihood estimates of the mean incubation period ranged from 27.30 to 28.56 days according to different distributions. The mean incubation period was shortest with the lognormal distribution (27.30 days), and longest with the Weibull distribution (28.56 days). The best distribution in terms of AIC value was the lognormal distribution with mean value of 27.30 (95% CI: 23.46-31.55) days and standard deviation of 20.20 (15.27-26.31) days. There were no significant differences between the incubation periods for dogs and cats, or between those for male and female dogs. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  4. Probability distribution functions of δ15N and δ18O in groundwater nitrate to probabilistically solve complex mixing scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chrystal, A.; Heikoop, J. M.; Davis, P.; Syme, J.; Hagerty, S.; Perkins, G.; Larson, T. E.; Longmire, P.; Fessenden, J. E.

    2010-12-01

    Elevated nitrate (NO3-) concentrations in drinking water pose a health risk to the public. The dual stable isotopic signatures of δ15N and δ18O in NO3- in surface- and groundwater are often used to identify and distinguish among sources of NO3- (e.g., sewage, fertilizer, atmospheric deposition). In oxic groundwaters where no denitrification is occurring, direct calculations of mixing fractions using a mass balance approach can be performed if three or fewer sources of NO3- are present, and if the stable isotope ratios of the source terms are defined. There are several limitations to this approach. First, direct calculations of mixing fractions are not possible when four or more NO3- sources may be present. Simple mixing calculations also rely upon treating source isotopic compositions as a single value; however these sources themselves exhibit ranges in stable isotope ratios. More information can be gained by using a probabilistic approach to account for the range and distribution of stable isotope ratios in each source. Fitting probability density functions (PDFs) to the isotopic compositions for each source term reveals that some values within a given isotopic range are more likely to occur than others. We compiled a data set of dual isotopes in NO3- sources by combining our measurements with data collected through extensive literature review. We fit each source term with a PDF, and show a new method to probabilistically solve multiple component mixing scenarios with source isotopic composition uncertainty. This method is based on a modified use of a tri-linear diagram. First, source term PDFs are sampled numerous times using a variation of stratified random sampling, Latin Hypercube Sampling. For each set of sampled source isotopic compositions, a reference point is generated close to the measured groundwater sample isotopic composition. This point is used as a vertex to form all possible triangles between all pairs of sampled source isotopic compositions

  5. Classroom Research: Assessment of Student Understanding of Sampling Distributions of Means and the Central Limit Theorem in Post-Calculus Probability and Statistics Classes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lunsford, M. Leigh; Rowell, Ginger Holmes; Goodson-Espy, Tracy

    2006-01-01

    We applied a classroom research model to investigate student understanding of sampling distributions of sample means and the Central Limit Theorem in post-calculus introductory probability and statistics courses. Using a quantitative assessment tool developed by previous researchers and a qualitative assessment tool developed by the authors, we…

  6. Depth distribution of secondary phases in kesterite Cu2ZnSnS4 by angle-resolved X-ray absorption spectroscopy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Just, J.; Lützenkirchen-Hecht, D.; Müller, O.; Frahm, R.; Unold, T.

    2017-12-01

    The depth distribution of secondary phases in the solar cell absorber material Cu2ZnSnS4 (CZTS) is quantitatively investigated using X-ray Absorption Near Edge Structure (XANES) analysis at the K-edge of sulfur at varying incidence angles. Varying information depths from several nanometers up to the full thickness is achieved. A quantitative profile of the phase distribution is obtained by a self-consistent fit of a multilayer model to the XANES spectra for different angles. Single step co-evaporated CZTS thin-films are found to exhibit zinc and copper sulfide secondary phases preferentially at the front or back interfaces of the film.

  7. A method for producing uniform dose distributions in the junction regions of large hinge angle electrol fields

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zavgorodni, S.F.; Beckham, W.A.; Roos, D.E.

    1996-01-01

    The planning problems presented by abutting electron fields are well recognised. Junctioning electron fields with large hinge angle compounds the problems because of the creation of closely situated 'hot' and 'cold' spots. The technique involving a compensated superficial x-ray (SXR) field to treat the junction region between electron fields was developed and used in a particular clinical case (treatment of a squamous cell carcinoma of the forehead/scalp). The SXR beam parameters were chosen and the compensator was designed to make the SXR field complementary to the electron fields. Application of a compensated SXR field eliminated 'cold' spots in the junction region and minimised 'hot' spots to (110%). In the clinical case discusses the 'hot' spots due to the SXR field would not appear because of increased attenuation of the soft x-rays in bone. The technique proposed produces uniform dose distribution up to 3 cm deep and can be considered as an additional tool for dealing with electron fields junctioning problems. (author)

  8. Estimating the number of components and detecting outliers using Angle Distribution of Loading Subspaces (ADLS) in PCA analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Y J; Tran, T; Postma, G; Buydens, L M C; Jansen, J

    2018-08-22

    Principal Component Analysis (PCA) is widely used in analytical chemistry, to reduce the dimensionality of a multivariate data set in a few Principal Components (PCs) that summarize the predominant patterns in the data. An accurate estimate of the number of PCs is indispensable to provide meaningful interpretations and extract useful information. We show how existing estimates for the number of PCs may fall short for datasets with considerable coherence, noise or outlier presence. We present here how Angle Distribution of the Loading Subspaces (ADLS) can be used to estimate the number of PCs based on the variability of loading subspace across bootstrap resamples. Based on comprehensive comparisons with other well-known methods applied on simulated dataset, we show that ADLS (1) may quantify the stability of a PCA model with several numbers of PCs simultaneously; (2) better estimate the appropriate number of PCs when compared with the cross-validation and scree plot methods, specifically for coherent data, and (3) facilitate integrated outlier detection, which we introduce in this manuscript. We, in addition, demonstrate how the analysis of different types of real-life spectroscopic datasets may benefit from these advantages of ADLS. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. Thermal electron acceleration by electric field spikes in the outer radiation belt: generation of field-aligned pitch angle distributions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vasko, I.; Agapitov, O. V.; Mozer, F.; Artemyev, A.

    2015-12-01

    Van Allen Probes observations in the outer radiation belt have demonstrated an abundance non-linear electrostatic stucture called Time Domain Structures (TDS). One of the type of TDS is electrostatic electron-acoustic double layers (DL). Observed DLs are frequently accompanied by field-aligned (bi-directional) pitch angle distributions (PAD) of electrons with energies from hundred eVs up to several keV (rarely up to tens of keV). We perform numerical simulations of the DL interaction with thermal electrons making use of the test particle approach. DL parameters assumed in the simulations are adopted from observations. We show that DLs accelerate thermal electrons parallel to the magnetic field via the electrostatic Fermi mechanism, i.e. due to reflections from DL potential humps. Due to this interaction some fraction of electrons is scattered into the loss cone. The electron energy gain is larger for larger DL scalar potential amplitudes and higher propagation velocities. In addition to the Fermi mechanism electrons can be trapped by DLs in their generation region and accelerated due to transport to higher latitudes. Both mechanisms result in formation of field-aligned PADs for electrons with energies comparable to those found in observations. The Fermi mechanism provides field-aligned PADs for <1 keV electrons, while the trapping mechanism extends field-aligned PADs to higher energy electrons.

  10. Qualitative numerical studies of the modification of the pitch angle distribution of test particles by alfvènic wave activity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keilbach, D.; Drews, C.; Berger, L.; Marsch, E.; Wimmer-Schweingruber, R. F.

    2017-12-01

    Using a test particle approach we have investigated, how an oxygen pickup ion torus velocity distribution is modified by continuous and intermittent alfvènic waves on timescales, where the gyro trajectory of each particle can be traced.We have therefore exposed the test particles to mono frequent waves, which expanded through the whole simulation in time and space. The general behavior of the pitch angle distribution is found to be stationary and a nonlinear function of the wave frequency, amplitude and the initial angle between wave elongation and field-perpendicular particle velocity vector. The figure shows the time-averaged pitch angle distributions as a function of the Doppler shifted wave frequency (where the Doppler shift was calculated with respect to the particles initial velocity) for three different wave amplitudes (labeled in each panel). The background field is chosen to be 5 nT and the 500 test particles were initially distributed on a torus with 120° pitch angle at a solar wind velocity of 450 km/s. Each y-slice of the histogram (which has been normalized to it's respective maximum) represents an individual run of the simulation.The frequency-dependent behavior of the test particles is found to be classifiable into the regimes of very low/high frequencies and frequencies close to first order resonance. We have found, that only in the latter regime the particles interact strongly with the wave, where in the time averaged histograms a branch structure is found, which was identified as a trace of particles co-moving with the wave phase. The magnitude of pitch angle change of these particles is as well as the frequency margin, where the branch structure is found, an increasing function with the wave amplitude.We have also investigated the interaction with mono frequent intermittent waves. Exposed to such waves a torus distribution is scattered in pitch angle space, whereas the pitch angle distribution is broadened systematically over time similar to

  11. Probability and stochastic modeling

    CERN Document Server

    Rotar, Vladimir I

    2012-01-01

    Basic NotionsSample Space and EventsProbabilitiesCounting TechniquesIndependence and Conditional ProbabilityIndependenceConditioningThe Borel-Cantelli TheoremDiscrete Random VariablesRandom Variables and VectorsExpected ValueVariance and Other Moments. Inequalities for DeviationsSome Basic DistributionsConvergence of Random Variables. The Law of Large NumbersConditional ExpectationGenerating Functions. Branching Processes. Random Walk RevisitedBranching Processes Generating Functions Branching Processes Revisited More on Random WalkMarkov ChainsDefinitions and Examples. Probability Distributions of Markov ChainsThe First Step Analysis. Passage TimesVariables Defined on a Markov ChainErgodicity and Stationary DistributionsA Classification of States and ErgodicityContinuous Random VariablesContinuous DistributionsSome Basic Distributions Continuous Multivariate Distributions Sums of Independent Random Variables Conditional Distributions and ExpectationsDistributions in the General Case. SimulationDistribution F...

  12. Probability distribution function values in mobile phones;Valores de funciones de distribución de probabilidad en el teléfono móvil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luis Vicente Chamorro Marcillllo

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Engineering, within its academic and application forms, as well as any formal research work requires the use of statistics and every inferential statistical analysis requires the use of values of probability distribution functions that are generally available in tables. Generally, management of those tables have physical problems (wasteful transport and wasteful consultation and operational (incomplete lists and limited accuracy. The study, “Probability distribution function values in mobile phones”, permitted determining – through a needs survey applied to students involved in statistics studies at Universidad de Nariño – that the best known and most used values correspond to Chi-Square, Binomial, Student’s t, and Standard Normal distributions. Similarly, it showed user’s interest in having the values in question within an alternative means to correct, at least in part, the problems presented by “the famous tables”. To try to contribute to the solution, we built software that allows immediately and dynamically obtaining the values of the probability distribution functions most commonly used by mobile phones.

  13. Large Scale Distribution of Ultra High Energy Cosmic Rays Detected at the Pierre Auger Observatory with Zenith Angles up to 80°

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Aab, A.; Abreu, P.; Aglietta, M.; Ahn, E. J.; Samarai, I. Al; Albuquerque, I. F. M.; Allekotte, I.; Allen, J.; Allison, P.; Almela, A.; Alvarez Castillo, J.; Alvarez-Muñiz, J.; Alves Batista, R.; Ambrosio, M.; Aminaei, A.; Anchordoqui, L.; Andringa, S.; Aramo, C.; Aranda, V. M.; Arqueros, F.; Asorey, H.; Assis, P.; Aublin, J.; Ave, M.; Avenier, M.; Avila, G.; Awal, N.; Badescu, A. M.; Barber, K. B.; Bäuml, J.; Baus, C.; Beatty, J. J.; Becker, K. H.; Bellido, J. A.; Berat, C.; Bertaina, M. E.; Bertou, X.; Biermann, P. L.; Billoir, P.; Blaess, S. G.; Blanco, M.; Bleve, C.; Blümer, H.; Boháčová, M.; Boncioli, D.; Bonifazi, C.; Bonino, R.; Borodai, N.; Brack, J.; Brancus, I.; Bridgeman, A.; Brogueira, P.; Brown, W. C.; Buchholz, P.; Bueno, A.; Buitink, S.; Buscemi, M.; Caballero-Mora, K. S.; Caccianiga, B.; Caccianiga, L.; Candusso, M.; Caramete, L.; Caruso, R.; Castellina, A.; Cataldi, G.; Cazon, L.; Cester, R.; Chavez, A. G.; Chiavassa, A.; Chinellato, J. A.; Chudoba, J.; Cilmo, M.; Clay, R. W.; Cocciolo, G.; Colalillo, R.; Coleman, A.; Collica, L.; Coluccia, M. R.; Conceição, R.; Contreras, F.; Cooper, M. J.; Cordier, A.; Coutu, S.; Covault, C. E.; Cronin, J.; Curutiu, A.; Dallier, R.; Daniel, B.; Dasso, S.; Daumiller, K.; Dawson, B. R.; de Almeida, R. M.; De Domenico, M.; de Jong, S. J.; de Mello Neto, J. R. T.; De Mitri, I.; de Oliveira, J.; de Souza, V.; del Peral, L.; Deligny, O.; Dembinski, H.; Dhital, N.; Di Giulio, C.; Di Matteo, A.; Diaz, J. C.; Díaz Castro, M. L.; Diogo, F.; Dobrigkeit, C.; Docters, W.; D’Olivo, J. C.; Dorofeev, A.; Dorosti Hasankiadeh, Q.; Dova, M. T.; Ebr, J.; Engel, R.; Erdmann, M.; Erfani, M.; Escobar, C. O.; Espadanal, J.; Etchegoyen, A.; Facal San Luis, P.; Falcke, H.; Fang, K.; Farrar, G.; Fauth, A. C.; Fazzini, N.; Ferguson, A. P.; Fernandes, M.; Fick, B.; Figueira, J. M.; Filevich, A.; Filipčič, A.; Fox, B. D.; Fratu, O.; Freire, M. M.; Fröhlich, U.; Fuchs, B.; Fujii, T.; Gaior, R.; García, B.; Garcia-Gamez, D.; Garcia-Pinto, D.; Garilli, G.; Gascon Bravo, A.; Gate, F.; Gemmeke, H.; Ghia, P. L.; Giaccari, U.; Giammarchi, M.; Giller, M.; Glaser, C.; Glass, H.; Gómez Berisso, M.; Gómez Vitale, P. F.; Gonçalves, P.; Gonzalez, J. G.; González, N.; Gookin, B.; Gordon, J.; Gorgi, A.; Gorham, P.; Gouffon, P.; Grebe, S.; Griffith, N.; Grillo, A. F.; Grubb, T. D.; Guarino, F.; Guedes, G. P.; Hampel, M. R.; Hansen, P.; Harari, D.; Harrison, T. A.; Hartmann, S.; Harton, J. L.; Haungs, A.; Hebbeker, T.; Heck, D.; Heimann, P.; Herve, A. E.; Hill, G. C.; Hojvat, C.; Hollon, N.; Holt, E.; Homola, P.; Hörandel, J. R.; Horvath, P.; Hrabovský, M.; Huber, D.; Huege, T.; Insolia, A.; Isar, P. G.; Jandt, I.; Jansen, S.; Jarne, C.; Josebachuili, M.; Kääpä, A.; Kambeitz, O.; Kampert, K. H.; Kasper, P.; Katkov, I.; Kégl, B.; Keilhauer, B.; Keivani, A.; Kemp, E.; Kieckhafer, R. M.; Klages, H. O.; Kleifges, M.; Kleinfeller, J.; Krause, R.; Krohm, N.; Krömer, O.; Kruppke-Hansen, D.; Kuempel, D.; Kunka, N.; LaHurd, D.; Latronico, L.; Lauer, R.; Lauscher, M.; Lautridou, P.; Le Coz, S.; Leão, M. S. A. B.; Lebrun, D.; Lebrun, P.; Leigui de Oliveira, M. A.; Letessier-Selvon, A.; Lhenry-Yvon, I.; Link, K.; López, R.; Louedec, K.; Lozano Bahilo, J.; Lu, L.; Lucero, A.; Ludwig, M.; Malacari, M.; Maldera, S.; Mallamaci, M.; Maller, J.; Mandat, D.; Mantsch, P.; Mariazzi, A. G.; Marin, V.; Mariş, I. C.; Marsella, G.; Martello, D.; Martin, L.; Martinez, H.; Martínez Bravo, O.; Martraire, D.; Masías Meza, J. J.; Mathes, H. J.; Mathys, S.; Matthews, J.; Matthews, J. A. J.; Matthiae, G.; Maurel, D.; Maurizio, D.; Mayotte, E.; Mazur, P. O.; Medina, C.; Medina-Tanco, G.; Meissner, R.; Melissas, M.; Melo, D.; Menshikov, A.; Messina, S.; Meyhandan, R.; Mićanović, S.; Micheletti, M. I.; Middendorf, L.; Minaya, I. A.; Miramonti, L.; Mitrica, B.; Molina-Bueno, L.; Mollerach, S.; Monasor, M.; Monnier Ragaigne, D.; Montanet, F.; Morello, C.; Mostafá, M.; Moura, C. A.; Muller, M. A.; Müller, G.; Müller, S.; Münchmeyer, M.; Mussa, R.; Navarra, G.; Navas, S.; Necesal, P.; Nellen, L.; Nelles, A.; Neuser, J.; Nguyen, P. H.; Niechciol, M.; Niemietz, L.; Niggemann, T.; Nitz, D.; Nosek, D.; Novotny, V.; Nožka, L.; Ochilo, L.; Oikonomou, F.; Olinto, A.; Oliveira, M.; Pacheco, N.; Pakk Selmi-Dei, D.; Palatka, M.; Pallotta, J.; Palmieri, N.; Papenbreer, P.; Parente, G.; Parra, A.; Paul, T.; Pech, M.; Pȩkala, J.; Pelayo, R.; Pepe, I. M.; Perrone, L.; Petermann, E.; Peters, C.; Petrera, S.; Petrov, Y.; Phuntsok, J.; Piegaia, R.; Pierog, T.; Pieroni, P.; Pimenta, M.; Pirronello, V.; Platino, M.; Plum, M.; Porcelli, A.; Porowski, C.; Prado, R. R.; Privitera, P.; Prouza, M.; Purrello, V.; Quel, E. J.; Querchfeld, S.; Quinn, S.; Rautenberg, J.; Ravel, O.; Ravignani, D.; Revenu, B.; Ridky, J.; Riggi, S.; Risse, M.; Ristori, P.; Rizi, V.; Rodrigues de Carvalho, W.; Rodriguez Fernandez, G.; Rodriguez Rojo, J.; Rodríguez-Frías, M. D.; Rogozin, D.; Ros, G.; Rosado, J.; Rossler, T.; Roth, M.; Roulet, E.; Rovero, A. C.; Saffi, S. J.; Saftoiu, A.; Salamida, F.; Salazar, H.; Saleh, A.; Salesa Greus, F.; Salina, G.; Sánchez, F.; Sanchez-Lucas, P.; Santo, C. E.; Santos, E.; Santos, E. M.; Sarazin, F.; Sarkar, B.; Sarmento, R.; Sato, R.; Scharf, N.; Scherini, V.; Schieler, H.; Schiffer, P.; Schmidt, D.; Scholten, O.; Schoorlemmer, H.; Schovánek, P.; Schröder, F. G.; Schulz, A.; Schulz, J.; Schumacher, J.; Sciutto, S. J.; Segreto, A.; Settimo, M.; Shadkam, A.; Shellard, R. C.; Sidelnik, I.; Sigl, G.; Sima, O.; Śmiałkowski, A.; Šmída, R.; Snow, G. R.; Sommers, P.; Sorokin, J.; Squartini, R.; Srivastava, Y. N.; Stanič, S.; Stapleton, J.; Stasielak, J.; Stephan, M.; Stutz, A.; Suarez, F.; Suomijärvi, T.; Supanitsky, A. D.; Sutherland, M. S.; Swain, J.; Szadkowski, Z.; Szuba, M.; Taborda, O. A.; Tapia, A.; Tepe, A.; Theodoro, V. M.; Timmermans, C.; Todero Peixoto, C. J.; Toma, G.; Tomankova, L.; Tomé, B.; Tonachini, A.; Torralba Elipe, G.; Torres Machado, D.; Travnicek, P.; Trovato, E.; Ulrich, R.; Unger, M.; Urban, M.; Valdés Galicia, J. F.; Valiño, I.; Valore, L.; van Aar, G.; van Bodegom, P.; van den Berg, A. M.; van Velzen, S.; van Vliet, A.; Varela, E.; Vargas Cárdenas, B.; Varner, G.; Vázquez, J. R.; Vázquez, R. A.; Veberič, D.; Verzi, V.; Vicha, J.; Videla, M.; Villaseñor, L.; Vlcek, B.; Vorobiov, S.; Wahlberg, H.; Wainberg, O.; Walz, D.; Watson, A. A.; Weber, M.; Weidenhaupt, K.; Weindl, A.; Werner, F.; Widom, A.; Wiencke, L.; Wilczyńska, B.; Wilczyński, H.; Williams, C.; Winchen, T.; Wittkowski, D.; Wundheiler, B.; Wykes, S.; Yamamoto, T.; Yapici, T.; Yuan, G.; Yushkov, A.; Zamorano, B.; Zas, E.; Zavrtanik, D.; Zavrtanik, M.; Zepeda, A.; Zhou, J.; Zhu, Y.; Zimbres Silva, M.; Ziolkowski, M.; Zuccarello, F.

    2015-01-01

    We present the results of an analysis of the large angular scale distribution of the arrival directions of cosmic rays with energy above 4 EeV detected at the Pierre Auger Observatory including for the first time events with zenith angle between 60° and 80°. We perform two Rayleigh analyses, one in

  14. LARGE SCALE DISTRIBUTION OF ULTRA HIGH ENERGY COSMIC RAYS DETECTED AT THE PIERRE AUGER OBSERVATORY WITH ZENITH ANGLES UP TO 80 degrees

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Aab, A.; Abreu, P.; Aglietta, M.; Ahn, E. J.; Al Samarai, I.; Albuquerque, I. F. M.; Allekotte, I.; Allen, J.; Allison, P.; Almela, A.; Alvarez Castillo, J.; Alvarez-Muniz, J.; Batista, R. Alves; Ambrosio, M.; Aminaei, A.; Anchordoqui, L.; Andringa, S.; Aramo, C.; Aranda, M.; Arqueros, F.; Asorey, H.; Assis, P.; Aublin, J.; Ave, M.; Avenier, M.; Avila, G.; Awal, N.; Badescu, A. M.; Barber, K. B.; Baeuml, J.; Baus, C.; Beatty, J. J.; Becker, K. H.; Bellido, J. A.; Berat, C.; Bertaina, M. E.; Bertou, X.; Biermann, P. L.; Billoir, P.; Blaess, S. G.; Blanco, M.; Bleve, C.; Bluemer, H.; Bohacova, M.; Boncioli, D.; Bonifazi, C.; Bonino, R.; Borodai, N.; Brack, J.; Brancus, I.; Bridgeman, A.; Brogueira, P.; Brown, W. C.; Buchholz, P.; Bueno, A.; Buitink, S.; Buscemi, M.; Caballero-Mora, K. S.; Caccianiga, B.; Caccianiga, L.; Candusso, M.; Caramete, L.; Caruso, R.; Castellina, A.; Cataldi, G.; Cazon, L.; Cester, R.; Chavez, A. G.; Chiavassa, A.; Chinellato, J. A.; Chudoba, J.; Cilmo, M.; Clay, R. W.; Cocciolo, G.; Colalillo, R.; Coleman, A.; Collica, L.; Coluccia, M. R.; Conceicao, R.; Contreras, F.; Cooper, M. J.; Cordier, A.; Coutu, S.; Covault, C. E.; Cronin, J.; Curutiu, A.; Dallier, R.; Daniel, B.; Dasso, S.; Daumiller, K.; Dawson, B. R.; de Almeida, R. M.; De Domenico, M.; de Jong, S. J.; de Mello Neto, J. R. T.; De Mitri, I.; de Oliveira, J.; de Souza, V.; del Peral, L.; Deligny, O.; Dembinski, H.; Dhital, N.; Di Giulio, C.; Di Matteo, A.; Diaz, J. C.; Diaz Castro, M. L.; Diogo, F.; Dobrigkeit, C.; Docters, W.; D'Olivo, J. C.; Dorofeev, A.; Hasankiadeh, Q. Dorosti; Dova, M. T.; Ebr, J.; Engel, R.; Erdmann, M.; Erfani, M.; Escobar, C. O.; Espadanal, J.; Etchegoyen, A.; Luis, P. Facal San; Falcke, H.; Fang, K.; Farrar, G.; Fauth, A. C.; Fazzini, N.; Ferguson, A. P.; Fernandes, M.; Fick, B.; Figueira, J. M.; Filevich, A.; Filipcic, A.; Fox, B. D.; Fratu, O.; Freire, M. M.; Froehlich, U.; Fuchs, B.; Fujii, T.; Gaior, R.; Garcia, B.; Garcia-Gamez, D.; Garcia-Pinto, D.; Garilli, G.; Gascon Bravo, A.; Gate, F.; Gemmeke, H.; Ghia, P. L.; Giaccari, U.; Giammarchi, M.; Giller, M.; Glaser, C.; Glass, H.; Gomez Berisso, M.; Gomez Vitale, P. F.; Goncalves, P.; Gonzalez, J. G.; Gonzalez, N.; Gookin, B.; Gordon, J.; Gorgi, A.; Gorham, P.; Gouffon, P.; Grebe, S.; Griffith, N.; Grillo, A. F.; Grubb, T. D.; Guarino, F.; Guedes, G. P.; Hampel, M. R.; Hansen, P.; Harari, D.; Harrison, T. A.; Hartmann, S.; Harton, J. L.; Haungs, A.; Hebbeker, T.; Heck, D.; Heimann, P.; Herve, A. E.; Hill, G. C.; Hojvat, C.; Hollon, N.; Holt, E.; Homola, P.; Horandel, J. R.; Horvath, P.; Hrabovsky, M.; Huber, D.; Huege, T.; Insolia, A.; Isar, P. G.; Jandt, I.; Jansen, S.; Jarne, C.; Josebachuili, M.; Kaeaepae, A.; Kambeitz, O.; Kampert, K. H.; Kasper, P.; Katkov, I.; Kegl, B.; Keilhauer, B.; Keivani, A.; Kemp, E.; Kieckhafer, R. M.; Klages, H. O.; Kleifges, M.; Kleinfeller, J.; Krause, R.; Krohm, N.; Kroemer, O.; Kruppke-Hansen, D.; Kuempel, D.; Kunka, N.; LaHurd, D.; Latronico, L.; Lauer, R.; Lauscher, M.; Lautridou, P.; Le Coz, S.; Leao, M. S. A. B.; Lebrun, D.; Lebrun, P.; Leigui de Oliveira, M. A.; Letessier-Selvon, A.; Lhenry-Yvon, I.; Link, K.; Lopez, R.; Louedec, K.; Lozano Bahilo, J.; Lu, L.; Lucero, A.; Ludwig, M.; Malacari, M.; Maldera, S.; Mallamaci, M.; Maller, J.; Mandat, D.; Mantsch, P.; Mariazzi, A. G.; Marin, V.; Maris, I. C.; Marsella, G.; Martello, D.; Martin, L.; Martinez, H.; Martinez Bravo, O.; Martraire, D.; Masias Meza, J. J.; Mathes, H. J.; Mathys, S.; Matthews, J.; Matthews, J. A. J.; Matthiae, G.; Maurel, D.; Maurizio, D.; Mayotte, E.; Mazur, P. O.; Medina, C.; Medina-Tanco, G.; Meissner, R.; Melissas, M.; Melo, D.; Menshikov, A.; Messina, S.; Meyhandan, R.; Micanovic, S.; Micheletti, M. I.; Middendorf, L.; Minaya, I. A.; Miramonti, L.; Mitrica, B.; Molina-Bueno, L.; Mollerach, S.; Monasor, M.; Ragaigne, D. Monnier; Montanet, F.; Morello, C.; Mostafa, M.; Moura, C. A.; Muller, M. A.; Mueller, G.; Mueller, S.; Muenchmeyer, M.; Mussa, R.; Navarra, G.; Navas, S.; Necesal, P.; Nellen, L.; Nelles, A.; Neuser, J.; Nguyen, P. H.; Niechciol, M.; Niemietz, L.; Niggemann, T.; Nitz, D.; Nosek, D.; Novotny, V.; Nozka, L.; Ochilo, L.; Oikonomou, F.; Olinto, A.; Oliveira, M.; Pacheco, N.; Pakk Selmi-Dei, D.; Palatka, M.; Pallotta, J.; Palmieri, N.; Papenbreer, P.; Parente, G.; Parra, A.; Paul, T.; Pech, M.; Pekala, J.; Pelayo, R.; Pepe, I. M.; Perrone, L.; Petermann, E.; Peters, C.; Petrera, S.; Petrov, Y.; Phuntsok, J.; Piegaia, R.; Pierog, T.; Pieroni, P.; Pimenta, M.; Pirronello, V.; Platino, M.; Plum, M.; Porcelli, A.; Porowski, C.; Prado, R. R.; Privitera, P.; Prouza, M.; Purrello, V.; Quel, E. J.; Querchfeld, S.; Quinn, S.; Rautenberg, J.; Ravel, O.; Ravignani, D.; Revenu, B.; Ridky, J.; Riggi, S.; Risse, M.; Ristori, P.; Rizi, V.; Rodrigues de Carvalho, W.; Fernandez, G. Rodriguez; Rodriguez Rojo, J.; Rodriguez-Frias, M. D.; Rogozin, D.; Ros, G.; Rosado, J.; Rossler, T.; Roth, M.; Roulet, E.; Rovero, A. C.; Saffi, S. J.; Saftoiu, A.; Salamida, F.; Salazar, H.; Saleh, A.; Greus, F. Salesa; Salina, G.; Sanchez, F.; Sanchez-Lucas, P.; Santo, C. E.; Santos, E.; Santos, E. M.; Sarazin, F.; Sarkar, B.; Sarmento, R.; Sato, R.; Scharf, N.; Scherini, V.; Schieler, H.; Schiffer, P.; Schmidt, D.; Scholten, O.; Schoorlemmer, H.; Schovanek, P.; Schroeder, F. G.; Schulz, A.; Schulz, J.; Schumacher, J.; Sciutto, S. J.; Segreto, A.; Settimo, M.; Shadkam, A.; Shellard, R. C.; Sidelnik, I.; Sigl, G.; Sima, O.; Smialkowski, A.; Smida, R.; Snow, G. R.; Sommers, P.; Sorokin, J.; Squartini, R.; Srivastava, Y. N.; Stanic, S.; Stapleton, J.; Stasielak, J.; Stephan, M.; Stutz, A.; Suarez, F.; Suomijaervi, T.; Supanitsky, A. D.; Sutherland, M. S.; Swain, J.; Szadkowski, Z.; Szuba, M.; Taborda, O. A.; Tapia, A.; Tepe, A.; Theodoro, V. M.; Timmermans, C.; Todero Peixoto, C. J.; Toma, G.; Tomankova, L.; Tome, B.; Tonachini, A.; Torralba Elipe, G.; Torres Machado, D.; Travnicek, P.; Trovato, E.; Ulrich, R.; Unger, M.; Urban, M.; Valdes Galicia, J. F.; Valino, I.; Valore, L.; van Aar, G.; van Bodegom, P.; van den Berg, A. M.; van Velzen, S.; van Vliet, A.; Varela, E.; Vargas Cardenas, B.; Varner, G.; Vazquez, J. R.; Vazquez, R. A.; Veberic, D.; Verzi, V.; Vicha, J.; Videla, M.; Villasenor, L.; Vlcek, B.; Vorobiov, S.; Wahlberg, H.; Wainberg, O.; Walz, D.; Watson, A. A.; Weber, M.; Weidenhaupt, K.; Weindl, A.; Werner, F.; Widom, A.; Wiencke, L.; Wilczynska, B.; Wilczynski, H.; Williams, C.; Winchen, T.; Wittkowski, D.; Wundheiler, B.; Wykes, S.; Yamamoto, T.; Yapici, T.; Yuan, G.; Yushkov, A.; Zamorano, B.; Zas, E.; Zavrtanik, D.; Zavrtanik, M.; Zepeda, A.; Zhou, J.; Zhu, Y.; Zimbres Silva, M.; Ziolkowski, M.; Zuccarello, F.

    2015-01-01

    We present the results of an analysis of the large angular scale distribution of the arrival directions of cosmic rays with energy above 4 EeV detected at the Pierre Auger Observatory including for the first time events with zenith angle between 60 degrees and 80 degrees. We perform two Rayleigh

  15. Comparative analysis of methods for modelling the short-term probability distribution of extreme wind turbine loads

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dimitrov, Nikolay Krasimirov

    2016-01-01

    extrapolation techniques: the Weibull, Gumbel and Pareto distributions and a double-exponential asymptotic extreme value function based on the ACER method. For the successful implementation of a fully automated extrapolation process, we have developed a procedure for automatic identification of tail threshold...... levels, based on the assumption that the response tail is asymptotically Gumbel distributed. Example analyses were carried out, aimed at comparing the different methods, analysing the statistical uncertainties and identifying the factors, which are critical to the accuracy and reliability...

  16. Protein-Protein Interaction Site Predictions with Three-Dimensional Probability Distributions of Interacting Atoms on Protein Surfaces

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Ching-Tai; Peng, Hung-Pin; Jian, Jhih-Wei; Tsai, Keng-Chang; Chang, Jeng-Yih; Yang, Ei-Wen; Chen, Jun-Bo; Ho, Shinn-Ying; Hsu, Wen-Lian; Yang, An-Suei

    2012-01-01

    Protein-protein interactions are key to many biological processes. Computational methodologies devised to predict protein-protein interaction (PPI) sites on protein surfaces are important tools in providing insights into the biological functions of proteins and in developing therapeutics targeting the protein-protein interaction sites. One of the general features of PPI sites is that the core regions from the two interacting protein surfaces are complementary to each other, similar to the interior of proteins in packing density and in the physicochemical nature of the amino acid composition. In this work, we simulated the physicochemical complementarities by constructing three-dimensional probability density maps of non-covalent interacting atoms on the protein surfaces. The interacting probabilities were derived from the interior of known structures. Machine learning algorithms were applied to learn the characteristic patterns of the probability density maps specific to the PPI sites. The trained predictors for PPI sites were cross-validated with the training cases (consisting of 432 proteins) and were tested on an independent dataset (consisting of 142 proteins). The residue-based Matthews correlation coefficient for the independent test set was 0.423; the accuracy, precision, sensitivity, specificity were 0.753, 0.519, 0.677, and 0.779 respectively. The benchmark results indicate that the optimized machine learning models are among the best predictors in identifying PPI sites on protein surfaces. In particular, the PPI site prediction accuracy increases with increasing size of the PPI site and with increasing hydrophobicity in amino acid composition of the PPI interface; the core interface regions are more likely to be recognized with high prediction confidence. The results indicate that the physicochemical complementarity patterns on protein surfaces are important determinants in PPIs, and a substantial portion of the PPI sites can be predicted correctly with

  17. Statistics and Probability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laktineh Imad

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available This ourse constitutes a brief introduction to probability applications in high energy physis. First the mathematical tools related to the diferent probability conepts are introduced. The probability distributions which are commonly used in high energy physics and their characteristics are then shown and commented. The central limit theorem and its consequences are analysed. Finally some numerical methods used to produce diferent kinds of probability distribution are presented. The full article (17 p. corresponding to this lecture is written in french and is provided in the proceedings of the book SOS 2008.

  18. [The relationship between angle of puncture and distribution of bone cement of unilateral percutaneous kyphoplasty for the treatment of thoracolumbar compression fractures].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xiang-fu; Fan, You-fu; Shi, Rui-fang; Deng, Qiang; Li, Zhong-feng

    2015-08-01

    To explore the relationship of bone cement distribution and the puncture angle in the treatment of thoracolumbar compression fractures with unilateral percutaneous kyphoplasty (PKP). The clinical data of 37 patients with thoracolumbar osteoporotic compression fractures underwent PKP between January 2013 to March 2014 were retrospectively analyzed, all punctures were performed unilaterally. There were 6 males, aged from 65 to 78 years old with an average of (71.83 ± 6.15) years; and 31 females, aged from 57 to 89 years old with an average of (71.06 ± 7.89) years. Imaging data were analyzed and puncture angle and puncture point were measured before operation. According to the measured data, the puncture were performeds during the operation. Distribution area of bone cement were calculated by X-rays data after operation. The effect of bone cement distribution on suitable puncture angle was analyzed; VAS score was used to evaluate the clinical effects. The puncture angle of thoracic vertebrae in T8-T12 was from 28° to 33° with an average 30.4°; and the puncture angle of lumbar vertebrae in L1-L5 was from 28° to 35° with an average of 31.3°. Postoperative X-rays showed the area ratios of bilateral bone cement was 0.97 ± 0.15. Bilateral diffuse area were basic equal. Postoperative VAS score decreased significantly (1.89 ± 1.29 vs 7.03 ± 1.42). Through measure imaging data before operation with PKP,the puncture point and entry point can be confirmed. According the measured data to puncture during operation, unilateral puncture can reach the distribution effect of the bilateral puncture in the treatment of thoracolumbar compression fractures.

  19. Application of an additive-type mixed probability distribution to the analysis of radiation from a mixture of radioactive sources

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dolićanin-Đekić Diana

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the possibility of distinguishing between the effects of radiation coming from two or more radioactive isotopes, by using methods of statistical mathematics. The procedure uses a mixed distribution of an additive type. Mathematical treatment is demonstrated herein on an example of analysis of composite radiation from two radioactive sources.

  20. Investigating anthelmintic efficacy against gastrointestinal nematodes in cattle by considering appropriate probability distributions for faecal egg count data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J.W. Love

    2017-04-01

    Where FEC data were obtained with less sensitive counting techniques (i.e. McMaster 30 or 15 epg, zero-inflated distributions and their associated central tendency were the most appropriate and would be recommended to use, i.e. the arithmetic group mean divided by the proportion of non-zero counts present; otherwise apparent anthelmintic efficacy could be misrepresented.

  1. Assignment of probability distributions for parameters in the 1996 performance assessment for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant. Part 2. Application of process

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rechard, Rob P. [Department of Performance Assessment 6853, Sandia National Laboratories MS-0776, P.O. Box 5800, Albuquerque, NM 87185-0776 (United States)]. E-mail: rprecha@sandia.gov; Tierney, Martin S. [Plantae Research Associates, 415 Camino Manzano Santa Fe, NM 87505 (United States)

    2005-04-01

    A managed process was used to consistently and traceably develop probability distributions for parameters representing epistemic uncertainty in four preliminary and the final 1996 performance assessment (PA) for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant. Between 67 probability density functions (PDFs) in the 1989 PA and 236 PDFs in the 1996 PA were assigned by a parameter development team, using a process described in a companion paper. In the five iterative PAs conducted, the most commonly used distributions were the uniform PDF and piecewise-uniform PDF (also referred to as a piecewise-linear cumulative distribution function (CDF)). Other distributions used included the truncated normal, truncated Student-t, and triangular PDFs. In a few instances, a discrete delta (piecewise-uniform CDF), beta, and exponential PDF were also used. The PDFs produced for the 24 most important parameters observed in the five iterative PAs are presented. As background, the list of 194 parameters documented in the first 1989 PA through the 1471 parameters documented in the 1996 compliance PA are also provided.

  2. Assignment of probability distributions for parameters in the 1996 performance assessment for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant. Part 1: description of process

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rechard, Rob P. [Performance Assessment Department 6853, MS-0776, P.O. Box 5800, Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM 87185-0776 (United States)]. E-mail: rprecha@sandia.gov; Tierney, Martin S. [Plantae Research Associates, 415 Camino Manzano Santa Fe, New Mexico 87505 (United States)

    2005-04-01

    A managed process was used to consistently and traceably develop probability distributions for parameters representing epistemic uncertainty in four preliminary and the final 1996 performance assessment (PA) for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP). The key to the success of the process was the use of a three-member team consisting of a Parameter Task Leader, PA Analyst, and Subject Matter Expert. This team, in turn, relied upon a series of guidelines for selecting distribution types. The primary function of the guidelines was not to constrain the actual process of developing a parameter distribution but rather to establish a series of well-defined steps where recognized methods would be consistently applied to all parameters. An important guideline was to use a small set of distributions satisfying the maximum entropy formalism. Another important guideline was the consistent use of the log transform for parameters with large ranges (i.e. maximum/minimum>10{sup 3}). A parameter development team assigned 67 probability density functions (PDFs) in the 1989 PA and 236 PDFs in the 1996 PA using these and other guidelines described.

  3. Assignment of probability distributions for parameters in the 1996 performance assessment for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant. Part 1: description of process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rechard, Rob P.; Tierney, Martin S.

    2005-01-01

    A managed process was used to consistently and traceably develop probability distributions for parameters representing epistemic uncertainty in four preliminary and the final 1996 performance assessment (PA) for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP). The key to the success of the process was the use of a three-member team consisting of a Parameter Task Leader, PA Analyst, and Subject Matter Expert. This team, in turn, relied upon a series of guidelines for selecting distribution types. The primary function of the guidelines was not to constrain the actual process of developing a parameter distribution but rather to establish a series of well-defined steps where recognized methods would be consistently applied to all parameters. An important guideline was to use a small set of distributions satisfying the maximum entropy formalism. Another important guideline was the consistent use of the log transform for parameters with large ranges (i.e. maximum/minimum>10 3 ). A parameter development team assigned 67 probability density functions (PDFs) in the 1989 PA and 236 PDFs in the 1996 PA using these and other guidelines described

  4. Predicting probability of occurrence and factors affecting distribution and abundance of three Ozark endemic crayfish species at multiple spatial scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nolen, Matthew S.; Magoulick, Daniel D.; DiStefano, Robert J.; Imhoff, Emily M.; Wagner, Brian K.

    2014-01-01

    Crayfishes and other freshwater aquatic fauna are particularly at risk globally due to anthropogenic demand, manipulation and exploitation of freshwater resources and yet are often understudied. The Ozark faunal region of Missouri and Arkansas harbours a high level of aquatic biological diversity, especially in regard to endemic crayfishes. Three such endemics, Orconectes eupunctus,Orconectes marchandi and Cambarus hubbsi, are threatened by limited natural distribution and the invasions of Orconectes neglectus.

  5. Effect of elbow flexion angles on stress distribution of the proximal ulnar and radius bones under a vertical load: measurement using resistance strain gauges.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rao, Zhi-Tao; Yuan, Feng; Li, Bing; Ma, Ning

    2014-07-31

    This study aimed to explore the surface stress at the proximal ends of the ulna and radius at different elbow flexion angles using the resistance strain method. Eight fresh adult cadaveric elbows were tested. The forearms were fixed in a neutral position. Axial load increment experiments were conducted at four different elbow flexion angles (0°, 15°, 30°, and 45°). Surface stain was measured at six sites (tip, middle, and base of the coronoid process; back ulnar notch; olecranon; and anterolateral margin of the radial head). With the exception of the ulnar olecranon, the load-stress curves at each measurement site showed an approximately linear relationship under the four working conditions studied. At a vertical load of 500 N, the greatest stress occurred at the middle of the coronoid process when the elbow flexion angles were 0° and 15°. When the flexion angles were 30° and 45°, the greatest stress occurred at the base of the coronoid process. The stress on the radial head was higher than those at the measurement sites of the proximal end of the ulna. The resistance strain method for measuring elbow joint surface stress benefits biomechanics research on the elbow joint. Elbow joint surface stress distributions vary according to different elbow flexion angles.

  6. On the Efficient Simulation of the Distribution of the Sum of Gamma-Gamma Variates with Application to the Outage Probability Evaluation Over Fading Channels

    KAUST Repository

    Ben Issaid, Chaouki

    2016-06-01

    The Gamma-Gamma distribution has recently emerged in a number of applications ranging from modeling scattering and reverbation in sonar and radar systems to modeling atmospheric turbulence in wireless optical channels. In this respect, assessing the outage probability achieved by some diversity techniques over this kind of channels is of major practical importance. In many circumstances, this is intimately related to the difficult question of analyzing the statistics of a sum of Gamma-Gamma random variables. Answering this question is not a simple matter. This is essentially because outage probabilities encountered in practice are often very small, and hence the use of classical Monte Carlo methods is not a reasonable choice. This lies behind the main motivation of the present work. In particular, this paper proposes a new approach to estimate the left tail of the sum of Gamma-Gamma variates. More specifically, we propose a mean-shift importance sampling scheme that efficiently evaluates the outage probability of L-branch maximum ratio combining diversity receivers over Gamma-Gamma fading channels. The proposed estimator satisfies the well-known bounded relative error criterion, a well-desired property characterizing the robustness of importance sampling schemes, for both identically and non-identically independent distributed cases. We show the accuracy and the efficiency of our approach compared to naive Monte Carlo via some selected numerical simulations.

  7. The quantum probability calculus

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jauch, J.M.

    1976-01-01

    The Wigner anomaly (1932) for the joint distribution of noncompatible observables is an indication that the classical probability calculus is not applicable for quantum probabilities. It should, therefore, be replaced by another, more general calculus, which is specifically adapted to quantal systems. In this article this calculus is exhibited and its mathematical axioms and the definitions of the basic concepts such as probability field, random variable, and expectation values are given. (B.R.H)

  8. Concepts of probability theory

    CERN Document Server

    Pfeiffer, Paul E

    1979-01-01

    Using the Kolmogorov model, this intermediate-level text discusses random variables, probability distributions, mathematical expectation, random processes, more. For advanced undergraduates students of science, engineering, or math. Includes problems with answers and six appendixes. 1965 edition.

  9. Rapid measurement of the three-dimensional distribution of leaf orientation and the leaf angle probability density function using terrestrial LiDAR scanning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leaf orientation plays a fundamental role in many transport processes in plant canopies. At the plant or stand level, leaf orientation is often highly anisotropic and heterogeneous, yet most analyses neglect such complexity. In many cases, this is due to the difficulty in measuring the spatial varia...

  10. An investigation of the dose distribution effect related with collimator angle in volumetric arc therapy of prostate cancer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bora Tas

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available To investigate the dose-volume variations of planning target volume (PTV and organ at risks (OARs in eleven prostate cancer patients planned with single and double arc volumetric modulated arc therapy (VMAT when varying collimator angle. Single and double arc VMAT treatment plans were created using Monaco5.0® with collimator angle set to 0°. All plans were normalized 7600 cGy dose to the 95% of clinical target volume (CTV volume. The single arc VMAT plans were reoptimized with different collimator angles (0°, 15°, 30°, 45°, 60°, 75°, and 90°, and for double arc VMAT plans (0–0°, 15°–345, 30–330°, 45–315°, 60–300°, 75–285°, 90–270° using the same optimization parameters. For the comparison the parameters of heterogeneity index (HI, dose-volume histogram and minimum dose to the 95% of PTV volume (D95 PTV calculated and analyzed. The best plans were verified using 2 dimensional ion chamber array IBA Matrixx® and three-dimensional IBA Compass® program. The comparison between calculation and measurement were made by the γ-index (3%/3 mm analysis. A higher D95 (PTV were found for single arc VMAT with 15° collimator angle. For double arc, VMAT with 60–300° and 75–285° collimator angles. However, lower rectum doses obtained for 75–285° collimator angles. There was no significant dose difference, based on other OARs which are bladder and femur head. When we compared single and double arc VMAT's D95 (PTV, we determined 2.44% high coverage and lower HI with double arc VMAT. All plans passed the γ-index (3%/3 mm analysis with more than 97% of the points and we had an average γ-index for CTV 0.36, for PTV 0.32 with double arc VMAT. These results were significant by Wilcoxon signed rank test statistically. The results show that dose coverage of target and OAR's doses also depend significantly on the collimator angles due to the geometry of target and OARs. Based on the results we have decided to plan prostate

  11. Depth distribution of secondary phases in kesterite Cu2ZnSnS4 by angle-resolved X-ray absorption spectroscopy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Just

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The depth distribution of secondary phases in the solar cell absorber material Cu2ZnSnS4 (CZTS is quantitatively investigated using X-ray Absorption Near Edge Structure (XANES analysis at the K-edge of sulfur at varying incidence angles. Varying information depths from several nanometers up to the full thickness is achieved. A quantitative profile of the phase distribution is obtained by a self-consistent fit of a multilayer model to the XANES spectra for different angles. Single step co-evaporated CZTS thin-films are found to exhibit zinc and copper sulfide secondary phases preferentially at the front or back interfaces of the film.

  12. Generalized Probability-Probability Plots

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mushkudiani, N.A.; Einmahl, J.H.J.

    2004-01-01

    We introduce generalized Probability-Probability (P-P) plots in order to study the one-sample goodness-of-fit problem and the two-sample problem, for real valued data.These plots, that are constructed by indexing with the class of closed intervals, globally preserve the properties of classical P-P

  13. Ignition Probability

    Data.gov (United States)

    Earth Data Analysis Center, University of New Mexico — USFS, State Forestry, BLM, and DOI fire occurrence point locations from 1987 to 2008 were combined and converted into a fire occurrence probability or density grid...

  14. Probability-1

    CERN Document Server

    Shiryaev, Albert N

    2016-01-01

    This book contains a systematic treatment of probability from the ground up, starting with intuitive ideas and gradually developing more sophisticated subjects, such as random walks, martingales, Markov chains, the measure-theoretic foundations of probability theory, weak convergence of probability measures, and the central limit theorem. Many examples are discussed in detail, and there are a large number of exercises. The book is accessible to advanced undergraduates and can be used as a text for independent study. To accommodate the greatly expanded material in the third edition of Probability, the book is now divided into two volumes. This first volume contains updated references and substantial revisions of the first three chapters of the second edition. In particular, new material has been added on generating functions, the inclusion-exclusion principle, theorems on monotonic classes (relying on a detailed treatment of “π-λ” systems), and the fundamental theorems of mathematical statistics.

  15. Risk Probabilities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rojas-Nandayapa, Leonardo

    Tail probabilities of sums of heavy-tailed random variables are of a major importance in various branches of Applied Probability, such as Risk Theory, Queueing Theory, Financial Management, and are subject to intense research nowadays. To understand their relevance one just needs to think....... By doing so, we will obtain a deeper insight into how events involving large values of sums of heavy-tailed random variables are likely to occur....

  16. A pandeid hydrozoan, Amphinema sp., new and probably introduced to central California: life history, morphology, distribution and systematics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John T. Rees

    2000-12-01

    Full Text Available A pandeid hydrozoan new to California, Amphinema sp., was collected in 1998 as a hydroid living on the non-indigenous bryozoan, Watersipora subtorquata, attached to floats in Bodega Harbor 80 km north of San Francisco Bay. The hydroid was cultured in the laboratory and medusae it released were raised to maturity. No species name could be assigned because although the hydroid colony structure and morphology of the polyp most closely resemble descriptions of Amphinema rugosum, the immature and adult medusae best resemble A. dinema. These two described species are known from widely-spaced locations worldwide including Europe (British Isles and the Mediterranean, New England, the Caribbean, east Africa, India, Japan and China, implying that they may transport easily between sites by man´s activities. Such wide-spread distributions of both species, coupled with the notable absence of Amphinema sp. from Bodega Harbor during a number of previous field surveys in the 1970´s, strongly intimates that Amphinemasp. has been introduced from elsewhere into Bodega Harbor during the past 25 years. Two additional species of Amphinema medusae present on the west coast of North America are discussed.

  17. Towards a Global Water Scarcity Risk Assessment Framework: Incorporation of Probability Distributions and Hydro-Climatic Variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veldkamp, T. I. E.; Wada, Y.; Aerts, J. C. J. H.; Ward, P. J.

    2016-01-01

    Changing hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions increasingly put pressure on fresh water resources and are expected to aggravate water scarcity conditions towards the future. Despite numerous calls for risk-based water scarcity assessments, a global-scale framework that includes UNISDR's definition of risk does not yet exist. This study provides a first step towards such a risk based assessment, applying a Gamma distribution to estimate water scarcity conditions at the global scale under historic and future conditions, using multiple climate change and population growth scenarios. Our study highlights that water scarcity risk, expressed in terms of expected annual exposed population, increases given all future scenarios, up to greater than 56.2% of the global population in 2080. Looking at the drivers of risk, we find that population growth outweigh the impacts of climate change at global and regional scales. Using a risk-based method to assess water scarcity, we show the results to be less sensitive than traditional water scarcity assessments to the use of fixed threshold to represent different levels of water scarcity. This becomes especially important when moving from global to local scales, whereby deviations increase up to 50% of estimated risk levels.

  18. Introduction to probability with Mathematica

    CERN Document Server

    Hastings, Kevin J

    2009-01-01

    Discrete ProbabilityThe Cast of Characters Properties of Probability Simulation Random SamplingConditional ProbabilityIndependenceDiscrete DistributionsDiscrete Random Variables, Distributions, and ExpectationsBernoulli and Binomial Random VariablesGeometric and Negative Binomial Random Variables Poisson DistributionJoint, Marginal, and Conditional Distributions More on ExpectationContinuous ProbabilityFrom the Finite to the (Very) Infinite Continuous Random Variables and DistributionsContinuous ExpectationContinuous DistributionsThe Normal Distribution Bivariate Normal DistributionNew Random Variables from OldOrder Statistics Gamma DistributionsChi-Square, Student's t, and F-DistributionsTransformations of Normal Random VariablesAsymptotic TheoryStrong and Weak Laws of Large Numbers Central Limit TheoremStochastic Processes and ApplicationsMarkov ChainsPoisson Processes QueuesBrownian MotionFinancial MathematicsAppendixIntroduction to Mathematica Glossary of Mathematica Commands for Probability Short Answers...

  19. On the Efficient Simulation of the Distribution of the Sum of Gamma-Gamma Variates with Application to the Outage Probability Evaluation Over Fading Channels

    KAUST Repository

    Ben Issaid, Chaouki

    2017-01-26

    The Gamma-Gamma distribution has recently emerged in a number of applications ranging from modeling scattering and reverberation in sonar and radar systems to modeling atmospheric turbulence in wireless optical channels. In this respect, assessing the outage probability achieved by some diversity techniques over this kind of channels is of major practical importance. In many circumstances, this is related to the difficult question of analyzing the statistics of a sum of Gamma- Gamma random variables. Answering this question is not a simple matter. This is essentially because outage probabilities encountered in practice are often very small, and hence the use of classical Monte Carlo methods is not a reasonable choice. This lies behind the main motivation of the present work. In particular, this paper proposes a new approach to estimate the left tail of the sum of Gamma-Gamma variates. More specifically, we propose robust importance sampling schemes that efficiently evaluates the outage probability of diversity receivers over Gamma-Gamma fading channels. The proposed estimators satisfy the well-known bounded relative error criterion for both maximum ratio combining and equal gain combining cases. We show the accuracy and the efficiency of our approach compared to naive Monte Carlo via some selected numerical simulations.

  20. Characterization of the energy distribution of neutrons generated by 5 MeV protons on a thick beryllium target at different emission angles

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Agosteo, S. [Politecnico di Milano, Dipartimento di Energia, Piazza Leonardo da Vinci 32, 20133 Milano (Italy)] [Istituto Nazionale di Fisica Nucleare, Sezione di Milano, via Celoria 16, 20133 Milano (Italy); Colautti, P., E-mail: paolo.colautti@lnl.infn.it [INFN, Laboratori Nazionali di Legnaro (LNL), Via dell' Universita, 2, I-35020 Legnaro (PD) (Italy); Esposito, J., E-mail: juan.esposito@tin.it [INFN, Laboratori Nazionali di Legnaro (LNL), Via dell' Universita, 2, I-35020 Legnaro (PD) (Italy); Fazzi, A.; Introini, M.V.; Pola, A. [Politecnico di Milano, Dipartimento di Energia, Piazza Leonardo da Vinci 32, 20133 Milano (Italy)] [Istituto Nazionale di Fisica Nucleare, Sezione di Milano, via Celoria 16, 20133 Milano (Italy)

    2011-12-15

    Neutron energy spectra at different emission angles, between 0 Degree-Sign and 120 Degree-Sign from the Be(p,xn) reaction generated by a beryllium thick-target bombarded with 5 MeV protons, have been measured at the Legnaro Laboratories (LNL) of the Italian National Institute for Nuclear Physics research (INFN). A new and quite compact recoil-proton spectrometer, based on a monolithic silicon telescope, coupled to a polyethylene converter, was efficiently used with respect to the traditional Time-of-Flight (TOF) technique. The measured distributions of recoil-protons were processed through an iterative unfolding algorithm in order to determine the neutron energy spectra at all the angles accounted for. The neutron energy spectrum measured at 0 Degree-Sign resulted to be in good agreement with the only one so far available at the requested energy and measured years ago with TOF technique. Moreover, the results obtained at different emission angles resulted to be consistent with detailed past measurements performed at 4 MeV protons at the same angles by TOF techniques.

  1. Intracranial cerebrospinal fluid spaces imaging using a pulse-triggered three-dimensional turbo spin echo MR sequence with variable flip-angle distribution

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hodel, Jerome [Unite Analyse et Restauration du Mouvement, UMR-CNRS, 8005 LBM ParisTech Ensam, Paris (France); University Paris Est Creteil (UPEC), Creteil (France); Assistance Publique-Hopitaux de Paris, Paris (France); Hopital Henri Mondor, Department of Neuroradiology, Creteil (France); Hopital Henri Mondor, Creteil (France); Silvera, Jonathan [University Paris Est Creteil (UPEC), Creteil (France); Assistance Publique-Hopitaux de Paris, Paris (France); Hopital Henri Mondor, Department of Neuroradiology, Creteil (France); Bekaert, Olivier; Decq, Philippe [Unite Analyse et Restauration du Mouvement, UMR-CNRS, 8005 LBM ParisTech Ensam, Paris (France); University Paris Est Creteil (UPEC), Creteil (France); Assistance Publique-Hopitaux de Paris, Paris (France); Hopital Henri Mondor, Department of Neurosurgery, Creteil (France); Rahmouni, Alain [University Paris Est Creteil (UPEC), Creteil (France); Assistance Publique-Hopitaux de Paris, Paris (France); Hopital Henri Mondor, Department of Radiology, Creteil (France); Bastuji-Garin, Sylvie [University Paris Est Creteil (UPEC), Creteil (France); Assistance Publique-Hopitaux de Paris, Paris (France); Hopital Henri Mondor, Department of Public Health, Creteil (France); Vignaud, Alexandre [Siemens Healthcare, Saint Denis (France); Petit, Eric; Durning, Bruno [Laboratoire Images Signaux et Systemes Intelligents, UPEC, Creteil (France)

    2011-02-15

    To assess the three-dimensional turbo spin echo with variable flip-angle distribution magnetic resonance sequence (SPACE: Sampling Perfection with Application optimised Contrast using different flip-angle Evolution) for the imaging of intracranial cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) spaces. We prospectively investigated 18 healthy volunteers and 25 patients, 20 with communicating hydrocephalus (CH), five with non-communicating hydrocephalus (NCH), using the SPACE sequence at 1.5T. Volume rendering views of both intracranial and ventricular CSF were obtained for all patients and volunteers. The subarachnoid CSF distribution was qualitatively evaluated on volume rendering views using a four-point scale. The CSF volumes within total, ventricular and subarachnoid spaces were calculated as well as the ratio between ventricular and subarachnoid CSF volumes. Three different patterns of subarachnoid CSF distribution were observed. In healthy volunteers we found narrowed CSF spaces within the occipital aera. A diffuse narrowing of the subarachnoid CSF spaces was observed in patients with NCH whereas patients with CH exhibited narrowed CSF spaces within the high midline convexity. The ratios between ventricular and subarachnoid CSF volumes were significantly different among the volunteers, patients with CH and patients with NCH. The assessment of CSF spaces volume and distribution may help to characterise hydrocephalus. (orig.)

  2. Dependence of black fragment azimuthal and projected angular distributions on polar angle in silicon-emulsion collisions at 4.5A GeV/c

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu Fuhu; Abd Allah, Nabil N.; Singh, B.K.

    2004-01-01

    The experimental results of dependence of black fragment azimuth (φ) and projected angle (ψ) distributions on polar angle θ in silicon-emulsion collisions at 4.5A GeV/c (the Dubna momentum) are reported. There are two regions of enhancement around φ=±90 deg. for different θ ranges. These enhancements are due to directed (v 1 ) and elliptic (v 2 ) flows. The v 1 and v 2 dependence of values on θ shows that the directed flow is weak and the elliptic flow is strong in these collisions. A multisource ideal gas model is used to describe the experimental results of dependence. The Monte Carlo calculated results are approximately in agreement with the experimental data

  3. The characteristic pitch angle distributions of 1 eV to 600 keV protons near the equator based on Van Allen Probes observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yue, C.; Bortnik, J.; Thorne, R. M.; Ma, Q.; An, X.; Chappell, C. R.; Gerrard, A. J.; Lanzerotti, L. J.; Shi, Q.

    2017-12-01

    Understanding the source and loss processes of various plasma populations is greatly aided by having accurate knowledge of their pitch angle distributions (PADs). Here, we statistically analyze 1 eV to 600 keV hydrogen (H+) PADs near the geomagnetic equator in the inner magnetosphere based on Van Allen Probes measurements, to comprehensively investigate how the H+ PADs vary with different energies, magnetic local times (MLTs), L-shells, and geomagnetic conditions. Our survey clearly indicates four distinct populations with different PADs: (1) a pancake distribution of the plasmaspheric H+ at low L-shells except for dawn sector; (2) a bi-directional field-aligned distribution of the warm plasma cloak; (3) pancake or isotropic distributions of ring current H+; (4) radiation belt particles show pancake, butterfly and isotropic distributions depending on their energy, MLT and L-shell. Meanwhile, the pancake distribution of ring current H+ moves to lower energies as L-shell increases which is primarily caused by adiabatic transport. Furthermore, energetic H+ (> 10 keV) PADs become more isotropic following the substorm injections, indicating wave-particle interactions. The radiation belt H+ butterfly distributions are identified in a narrow energy range of 100 5), which are less significant during quiet times and extend from dusk to dawn sector through midnight during substorms. The different PADs near the equator provide clues of the underlying physical processes that produce the dynamics of these different populations.

  4. The Characteristic Pitch Angle Distributions of 1 eV to 600 keV Protons Near the Equator Based On Van Allen Probes Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yue, Chao; Bortnik, Jacob; Thorne, Richard M.; Ma, Qianli; An, Xin; Chappell, C. R.; Gerrard, Andrew J.; Lanzerotti, Louis J.; Shi, Quanqi; Reeves, Geoffrey D.; Spence, Harlan E.; Mitchell, Donald G.; Gkioulidou, Matina; Kletzing, Craig A.

    2017-09-01

    Understanding the source and loss processes of various plasma populations is greatly aided by having accurate knowledge of their pitch angle distributions (PADs). Here we statistically analyze 1 eV to 600 keV hydrogen (H+) PADs near the geomagnetic equator in the inner magnetosphere based on Van Allen Probes measurements, to comprehensively investigate how the H+ PADs vary with different energies, magnetic local times (MLTs), L shells, and geomagnetic conditions. Our survey clearly indicates four distinct populations with different PADs: (1) a pancake distribution of the plasmaspheric H+ at low L shells except for dawn sector; (2) a bidirectional field-aligned distribution of the warm plasma cloak; (3) pancake or isotropic distributions of ring current H+; (4) radiation belt particles show pancake, butterfly, and isotropic distributions depending on their energy, MLT, and L shell. Meanwhile, the pancake distribution of ring current H+ moves to lower energies as L shell increases, which is primarily caused by adiabatic transport. Furthermore, energetic H+ (>10 keV) PADs become more isotropic following the substorm injections, indicating wave-particle interactions. The radiation belt H+ butterfly distributions are identified in a narrow energy range of 100 5), which are less significant during quiet times and extend from dusk to dawn sector through midnight during substorms. The different PADs near the equator provide clues of the underlying physical processes that produce the dynamics of these different populations.

  5. Fire Radiative Energy and Biomass Burned Estimation Under Sparse Satellite Sampling Conditions: Using Power Law Probability Distribution Properties of MODIS Fire Radiative Power Retrievals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sathyachandran, S.; Roy, D. P.; Boschetti, L.

    2010-12-01

    Spatially and temporally explicit mapping of the amount of biomass burned by fire is needed to estimate atmospheric emissions of green house gases and aerosols. The instantaneous Fire Radiative Power (FRP) [units: W] is retrieved at active fire detections from mid-infrared wavelength remotely sensed data and can be used to estimate the rate of biomass consumed. Temporal integration of FRP measurements over the duration of the fire provides the Fire Radiative Energy (FRE) [units: J] that has been shown to be linearly related to the total biomass burned [units: g]. However, FRE, and thus biomass burned retrieval, is sensitive to the satellite spatial and temporal sampling of FRP which can be sparse under cloudy conditions and with polar orbiting sensors such as MODIS. In this paper the FRE is derived in a new way as the product of the fire duration and the first moment of the FRP power law probability distribution. MODIS FRP data retrieved over savanna fires in Australia and deforestation fires in Brazil are shown to have power law distributions with different scaling parameters that are related to the fire energy in these two contrasting systems. The FRE derived burned biomass estimates computed using this new method are compared to estimates using the conventional temporal FRP integration method and with literature values. The results of the comparison suggest that the new method may provide more reliable burned biomass estimates under sparse satellite sampling conditions if the fire duration and the power law distribution parameters are characterized a priori.

  6. Analysis of meteorological droughts and dry spells in semiarid regions: a comparative analysis of probability distribution functions in the Segura Basin (SE Spain)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pérez-Sánchez, Julio; Senent-Aparicio, Javier

    2017-08-01

    Dry spells are an essential concept of drought climatology that clearly defines the semiarid Mediterranean environment and whose consequences are a defining feature for an ecosystem, so vulnerable with regard to water. The present study was conducted to characterize rainfall drought in the Segura River basin located in eastern Spain, marked by the self seasonal nature of these latitudes. A daily precipitation set has been utilized for 29 weather stations during a period of 20 years (1993-2013). Furthermore, four sets of dry spell length (complete series, monthly maximum, seasonal maximum, and annual maximum) are used and simulated for all the weather stations with the following probability distribution functions: Burr, Dagum, error, generalized extreme value, generalized logistic, generalized Pareto, Gumbel Max, inverse Gaussian, Johnson SB, Log-Logistic, Log-Pearson 3, Triangular, Weibull, and Wakeby. Only the series of annual maximum spell offer a good adjustment for all the weather stations, thereby gaining the role of Wakeby as the best result, with a p value means of 0.9424 for the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test (0.2 significance level). Probability of dry spell duration for return periods of 2, 5, 10, and 25 years maps reveal the northeast-southeast gradient, increasing periods with annual rainfall of less than 0.1 mm in the eastern third of the basin, in the proximity of the Mediterranean slope.

  7. Ensemble modeling of stochastic unsteady open-channel flow in terms of its time-space evolutionary probability distribution - Part 2: numerical application

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dib, Alain; Kavvas, M. Levent

    2018-03-01

    The characteristic form of the Saint-Venant equations is solved in a stochastic setting by using a newly proposed Fokker-Planck Equation (FPE) methodology. This methodology computes the ensemble behavior and variability of the unsteady flow in open channels by directly solving for the flow variables' time-space evolutionary probability distribution. The new methodology is tested on a stochastic unsteady open-channel flow problem, with an uncertainty arising from the channel's roughness coefficient. The computed statistical descriptions of the flow variables are compared to the results obtained through Monte Carlo (MC) simulations in order to evaluate the performance of the FPE methodology. The comparisons show that the proposed methodology can adequately predict the results of the considered stochastic flow problem, including the ensemble averages, variances, and probability density functions in time and space. Unlike the large number of simulations performed by the MC approach, only one simulation is required by the FPE methodology. Moreover, the total computational time of the FPE methodology is smaller than that of the MC approach, which could prove to be a particularly crucial advantage in systems with a large number of uncertain parameters. As such, the results obtained in this study indicate that the proposed FPE methodology is a powerful and time-efficient approach for predicting the ensemble average and variance behavior, in both space and time, for an open-channel flow process under an uncertain roughness coefficient.

  8. Impact of distributed generation in the probability density of voltage sags; Impacto da geracao distribuida na densidade de probabilidade de afundamentos de tensao

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ramos, Alessandro Candido Lopes [CELG - Companhia Energetica de Goias, Goiania, GO (Brazil). Generation and Transmission. System' s Operation Center], E-mail: alessandro.clr@celg.com.br; Batista, Adalberto Jose [Universidade Federal de Goias (UFG), Goiania, GO (Brazil)], E-mail: batista@eee.ufg.br; Leborgne, Roberto Chouhy [Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (UFRS), Porto Alegre, RS (Brazil)], E-mail: rcl@ece.ufrgs.br; Emiliano, Pedro Henrique Mota, E-mail: ph@phph.com.br

    2009-07-01

    This article presents the impact of distributed generation in studies of voltage sags caused by faults in the electrical system. We simulated short-circuit-to-ground in 62 lines of 230, 138, 69 and 13.8 kV that are part of the electrical system of the city of Goiania, of Goias state . For each fault position was monitored the bus voltage of 380 V in an industrial consumer sensitive to such sags. Were inserted different levels of GD near the consumer. The simulations of a short circuit, with the monitoring bar 380 V, were performed again. A study using stochastic simulation Monte Carlo (SMC) was performed to obtain, at each level of GD, the probability curves and sags of the probability density and its voltage class. With these curves were obtained the average number of sags according to each class, that the consumer bar may be submitted annually. The simulations were performed using the Program Analysis of Simultaneous Faults - ANAFAS. In order to overcome the intrinsic limitations of the methods of simulation of this program and allow data entry via windows, a computational tool was developed in Java language. Data processing was done using the MATLAB software.

  9. THE MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL FALLEN IN SHORT PERIODS OF TIME IN THE HILLY AREA OF CLUJ COUNTY - GENESIS, DISTRIBUTION AND PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    BLAGA IRINA

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available The maximum amounts of rainfall are usually characterized by high intensity, and their effects on the substrate are revealed, at slope level, by the deepening of the existing forms of torrential erosion and also by the formation of new ones, and by landslide processes. For the 1971-2000 period, for the weather stations in the hilly area of Cluj County: Cluj- Napoca, Dej, Huedin and Turda the highest values of rainfall amounts fallen in 24, 48 and 72 hours were analyzed and extracted, based on which the variation and the spatial and temporal distribution of the precipitation were analyzed. The annual probability of exceedance of maximum rainfall amounts fallen in short time intervals (24, 48 and 72 hours, based on thresholds and class values was determined, using climatological practices and the Hyfran program facilities.

  10. MERA: a webserver for evaluating backbone torsion angle distributions in dynamic and disordered proteins from NMR data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mantsyzov, Alexey B. [M.V. Lomonosov Moscow State University, Faculty of Fundamental Medicine (Russian Federation); Shen, Yang; Lee, Jung Ho [National Institutes of Health, Laboratory of Chemical Physics, National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases (United States); Hummer, Gerhard [Max Planck Institute of Biophysics (Germany); Bax, Ad, E-mail: bax@nih.gov [National Institutes of Health, Laboratory of Chemical Physics, National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases (United States)

    2015-09-15

    MERA (Maximum Entropy Ramachandran map Analysis from NMR data) is a new webserver that generates residue-by-residue Ramachandran map distributions for disordered proteins or disordered regions in proteins on the basis of experimental NMR parameters. As input data, the program currently utilizes up to 12 different parameters. These include three different types of short-range NOEs, three types of backbone chemical shifts ({sup 15}N, {sup 13}C{sup α}, and {sup 13}C′), six types of J couplings ({sup 3}J{sub HNHα}, {sup 3}J{sub C′C′}, {sup 3}J{sub C′Hα}, {sup 1}J{sub HαCα}, {sup 2}J{sub CαN} and {sup 1}J{sub CαN}), as well as the {sup 15}N-relaxation derived J(0) spectral density. The Ramachandran map distributions are reported in terms of populations of their 15° × 15° voxels, and an adjustable maximum entropy weight factor is available to ensure that the obtained distributions will not deviate more from a newly derived coil library distribution than required to account for the experimental data. MERA output includes the agreement between each input parameter and its distribution-derived value. As an application, we demonstrate performance of the program for several residues in the intrinsically disordered protein α-synuclein, as well as for several static and dynamic residues in the folded protein GB3.

  11. On Probability Domains IV

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frič, Roman; Papčo, Martin

    2017-12-01

    Stressing a categorical approach, we continue our study of fuzzified domains of probability, in which classical random events are replaced by measurable fuzzy random events. In operational probability theory (S. Bugajski) classical random variables are replaced by statistical maps (generalized distribution maps induced by random variables) and in fuzzy probability theory (S. Gudder) the central role is played by observables (maps between probability domains). We show that to each of the two generalized probability theories there corresponds a suitable category and the two resulting categories are dually equivalent. Statistical maps and observables become morphisms. A statistical map can send a degenerated (pure) state to a non-degenerated one —a quantum phenomenon and, dually, an observable can map a crisp random event to a genuine fuzzy random event —a fuzzy phenomenon. The dual equivalence means that the operational probability theory and the fuzzy probability theory coincide and the resulting generalized probability theory has two dual aspects: quantum and fuzzy. We close with some notes on products and coproducts in the dual categories.

  12. Solar cell angle of incidence corrections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burger, Dale R.; Mueller, Robert L.

    1995-01-01

    Literature on solar array angle of incidence corrections was found to be sparse and contained no tabular data for support. This lack along with recent data on 27 GaAs/Ge 4 cm by 4 cm cells initiated the analysis presented in this paper. The literature cites seven possible contributors to angle of incidence effects: cosine, optical front surface, edge, shadowing, UV degradation, particulate soiling, and background color. Only the first three are covered in this paper due to lack of sufficient data. The cosine correction is commonly used but is not sufficient when the incident angle is large. Fresnel reflection calculations require knowledge of the index of refraction of the coverglass front surface. The absolute index of refraction for the coverglass front surface was not known nor was it measured due to lack of funds. However, a value for the index of refraction was obtained by examining how the prediction errors varied with different assumed indices and selecting the best fit to the set of measured values. Corrections using front surface Fresnel reflection along with the cosine correction give very good predictive results when compared to measured data, except there is a definite trend away from predicted values at the larger incident angles. This trend could be related to edge effects and is illustrated by a use of a box plot of the errors and by plotting the deviation of the mean against incidence angle. The trend is for larger deviations at larger incidence angles and there may be a fourth order effect involved in the trend. A chi-squared test was used to determine if the measurement errors were normally distributed. At 10 degrees the chi-squared test failed, probably due to the very small numbers involved or a bias from the measurement procedure. All other angles showed a good fit to the normal distribution with increasing goodness-of-fit as the angles increased which reinforces the very small numbers hypothesis. The contributed data only went to 65 degrees

  13. Additional evidence for the universality of the probability distribution of turbulent fluctuations and fluxes in the scrape-off layer region of fusion plasmas

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Milligen, B. Ph.; Sánchez, R.; Carreras, B. A.; Lynch, V. E.; LaBombard, B.; Pedrosa, M. A.; Hidalgo, C.; Gonçalves, B.; Balbín, R.

    2005-05-01

    Plasma density fluctuations and electrostatic turbulent fluxes measured at the scrape-off layer of the Alcator C-Mod tokamak [B. LaBombard, R. L. Boivin, M. Greenwald, J. Hughes, B. Lipschultz, D. Mossessian, C. S. Pitcher, J. L. Terry, and S. J. Zweben, Phys. Plasmas 8, 2107 (2001)], the Wendelstein 7-Advanced Stellarator [H. Renner, E. Anabitarte, E. Ascasibar et al., Plasma Phys. Controlled Fusion 31, 1579 (1989)], and the TJ-II stellarator [C. Alejaldre, J. Alonso, J. Botija et al., Fusion Technol. 17, 131 (1990)] are shown to obey a non-Gaussian but apparently universal (i.e., not dependent on device and discharge parameters) probability density distribution (pdf). The fact that a specific shape acts as an attractor for the pdf seems to suggest that emergent behavior and self-regulation are relevant concepts for these fluctuations. This shape is closely similar to the so-called Bramwell, Holdsworth, and Pinton distribution, which does not have any free parameters.

  14. Monte Carlo dose calculations and radiobiological modelling: analysis of the effect of the statistical noise of the dose distribution on the probability of tumour control

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buffa, Francesca M.

    2000-01-01

    The aim of this work is to investigate the influence of the statistical fluctuations of Monte Carlo (MC) dose distributions on the dose volume histograms (DVHs) and radiobiological models, in particular the Poisson model for tumour control probability (tcp). The MC matrix is characterized by a mean dose in each scoring voxel, d, and a statistical error on the mean dose, σ d ; whilst the quantities d and σ d depend on many statistical and physical parameters, here we consider only their dependence on the phantom voxel size and the number of histories from the radiation source. Dose distributions from high-energy photon beams have been analysed. It has been found that the DVH broadens when increasing the statistical noise of the dose distribution, and the tcp calculation systematically underestimates the real tumour control value, defined here as the value of tumour control when the statistical error of the dose distribution tends to zero. When increasing the number of energy deposition events, either by increasing the voxel dimensions or increasing the number of histories from the source, the DVH broadening decreases and tcp converges to the 'correct' value. It is shown that the underestimation of the tcp due to the noise in the dose distribution depends on the degree of heterogeneity of the radiobiological parameters over the population; in particular this error decreases with increasing the biological heterogeneity, whereas it becomes significant in the hypothesis of a radiosensitivity assay for single patients, or for subgroups of patients. It has been found, for example, that when the voxel dimension is changed from a cube with sides of 0.5 cm to a cube with sides of 0.25 cm (with a fixed number of histories of 10 8 from the source), the systematic error in the tcp calculation is about 75% in the homogeneous hypothesis, and it decreases to a minimum value of about 15% in a case of high radiobiological heterogeneity. The possibility of using the error on the

  15. Water quality analysis in rivers with non-parametric probability distributions and fuzzy inference systems: application to the Cauca River, Colombia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ocampo-Duque, William; Osorio, Carolina; Piamba, Christian; Schuhmacher, Marta; Domingo, José L

    2013-02-01

    The integration of water quality monitoring variables is essential in environmental decision making. Nowadays, advanced techniques to manage subjectivity, imprecision, uncertainty, vagueness, and variability are required in such complex evaluation process. We here propose a probabilistic fuzzy hybrid model to assess river water quality. Fuzzy logic reasoning has been used to compute a water quality integrative index. By applying a Monte Carlo technique, based on non-parametric probability distributions, the randomness of model inputs was estimated. Annual histograms of nine water quality variables were built with monitoring data systematically collected in the Colombian Cauca River, and probability density estimations using the kernel smoothing method were applied to fit data. Several years were assessed, and river sectors upstream and downstream the city of Santiago de Cali, a big city with basic wastewater treatment and high industrial activity, were analyzed. The probabilistic fuzzy water quality index was able to explain the reduction in water quality, as the river receives a larger number of agriculture, domestic, and industrial effluents. The results of the hybrid model were compared to traditional water quality indexes. The main advantage of the proposed method is that it considers flexible boundaries between the linguistic qualifiers used to define the water status, being the belongingness of water quality to the diverse output fuzzy sets or classes provided with percentiles and histograms, which allows classify better the real water condition. The results of this study show that fuzzy inference systems integrated to stochastic non-parametric techniques may be used as complementary tools in water quality indexing methodologies. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Probability an introduction

    CERN Document Server

    Grimmett, Geoffrey

    2014-01-01

    Probability is an area of mathematics of tremendous contemporary importance across all aspects of human endeavour. This book is a compact account of the basic features of probability and random processes at the level of first and second year mathematics undergraduates and Masters' students in cognate fields. It is suitable for a first course in probability, plus a follow-up course in random processes including Markov chains. A special feature is the authors' attention to rigorous mathematics: not everything is rigorous, but the need for rigour is explained at difficult junctures. The text is enriched by simple exercises, together with problems (with very brief hints) many of which are taken from final examinations at Cambridge and Oxford. The first eight chapters form a course in basic probability, being an account of events, random variables, and distributions - discrete and continuous random variables are treated separately - together with simple versions of the law of large numbers and the central limit th...

  17. Probability for statisticians

    CERN Document Server

    Shorack, Galen R

    2017-01-01

    This 2nd edition textbook offers a rigorous introduction to measure theoretic probability with particular attention to topics of interest to mathematical statisticians—a textbook for courses in probability for students in mathematical statistics. It is recommended to anyone interested in the probability underlying modern statistics, providing a solid grounding in the probabilistic tools and techniques necessary to do theoretical research in statistics. For the teaching of probability theory to post graduate statistics students, this is one of the most attractive books available. Of particular interest is a presentation of the major central limit theorems via Stein's method either prior to or alternative to a characteristic function presentation. Additionally, there is considerable emphasis placed on the quantile function as well as the distribution function. The bootstrap and trimming are both presented. Martingale coverage includes coverage of censored data martingales. The text includes measure theoretic...

  18. Scoliosis angle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marklund, T.

    1978-01-01

    The most commonly used methods of assessing the scoliotic deviation measure angles that are not clearly defined in relation to the anatomy of the patient. In order to give an anatomic basis for such measurements it is proposed to define the scoliotic deviation as the deviation the vertebral column makes with the sagittal plane. Both the Cobb and the Ferguson angles may be based on this definition. The present methods of measurement are then attempts to measure these angles. If the plane of these angles is parallel to the film, the measurement will be correct. Errors in the measurements may be incurred by the projection. A hypothetical projection, called a 'rectified orthogonal projection', is presented, which correctly represents all scoliotic angles in accordance with these principles. It can be constructed in practice with the aid of a computer and by performing measurements on two projections of the vertebral column; a scoliotic curve can be represented independent of the kyphosis and lordosis. (Auth.)

  19. A brief introduction to probability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Paola, Gioacchino; Bertani, Alessandro; De Monte, Lavinia; Tuzzolino, Fabio

    2018-02-01

    The theory of probability has been debated for centuries: back in 1600, French mathematics used the rules of probability to place and win bets. Subsequently, the knowledge of probability has significantly evolved and is now an essential tool for statistics. In this paper, the basic theoretical principles of probability will be reviewed, with the aim of facilitating the comprehension of statistical inference. After a brief general introduction on probability, we will review the concept of the "probability distribution" that is a function providing the probabilities of occurrence of different possible outcomes of a categorical or continuous variable. Specific attention will be focused on normal distribution that is the most relevant distribution applied to statistical analysis.

  20. Spatial Distribution of Transverse Dispersion Coefficients at U-shaped Bend Confluence with 60° Junction Angle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, X. X.; Gu, L.; Dai, B.

    2017-10-01

    The confluence of bend channel and the tributary is fairlycommon in nature. At present the study about the dispersion capacity of pollutants in the bend confluence is very limited. In this paper, a three-dimensional numerical model was established to explore the hydraulic characteristics such as velocity distribution and circulation structure of the different sections in the U-shaped bend confluence. Then the transverse dispersion coefficient was calculated using the dispersion tensor method and N-zone model on the base of flow structure data, and its spatial distribution along the bend is analyze. The results show that there is a significant difference in the flow structure of each section at the U-shaped bend confluence, especially before and after the junction of tributary.The peak value location of the transverse dispersion coefficient at the cross section appears near the inner bank. Along the bend channel, the transverse dispersion coefficient tends to increase first and then decrease, and the maximum value of the section appears before the bend apex where the tributary feeding into the main channel.

  1. Introduction to probability with R

    CERN Document Server

    Baclawski, Kenneth

    2008-01-01

    FOREWORD PREFACE Sets, Events, and Probability The Algebra of Sets The Bernoulli Sample Space The Algebra of Multisets The Concept of Probability Properties of Probability Measures Independent Events The Bernoulli Process The R Language Finite Processes The Basic Models Counting Rules Computing Factorials The Second Rule of Counting Computing Probabilities Discrete Random Variables The Bernoulli Process: Tossing a Coin The Bernoulli Process: Random Walk Independence and Joint Distributions Expectations The Inclusion-Exclusion Principle General Random Variable

  2. Large-Scale Control of the Probability Distribution Function of Precipitation over the Continental US in Observations and Models, in the Current and Future Climat

    Science.gov (United States)

    Straus, D. M.

    2016-12-01

    The goals of this research are to: (a) identify features of the probability distribution function (pdf) of pentad precipitation over the continental US (CONUS) that are controlled by the configuration of the large-scale fields, including both tails of the pdf, hence droughts and floods, and the overall shape of the pdf, e.g. skewness and kurtosis; (b) estimate the changes in the properties of the pdf controlled by the large-scale in a future climate. We first describe the significant dependence of the observed precipitation pdf conditioned on circulation regimes over CONUS. The regime states, and the number of regimes, are obtained by a method that assures a high degree of significance, and a high degree of pattern correlation between the states in a regime and its average. The regime-conditioned pdfs yield information on times scales from intra-seasonal to inter-annual. We then apply this method to atmospheric simulations run with the EC-Earth version 3 model for historical sea-surface temperatures (SST) and future (RCP8.5 CMIP5 scenario) estimates of SST, at resolutions T255 and T799, to understand what dynamically controlled changes in the precipitation pdf can be expected in a future climate.

  3. Surface drift prediction in the Adriatic Sea using hyper-ensemble statistics on atmospheric, ocean and wave models: Uncertainties and probability distribution areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rixen, M.; Ferreira-Coelho, E.; Signell, R.

    2008-01-01

    Despite numerous and regular improvements in underlying models, surface drift prediction in the ocean remains a challenging task because of our yet limited understanding of all processes involved. Hence, deterministic approaches to the problem are often limited by empirical assumptions on underlying physics. Multi-model hyper-ensemble forecasts, which exploit the power of an optimal local combination of available information including ocean, atmospheric and wave models, may show superior forecasting skills when compared to individual models because they allow for local correction and/or bias removal. In this work, we explore in greater detail the potential and limitations of the hyper-ensemble method in the Adriatic Sea, using a comprehensive surface drifter database. The performance of the hyper-ensembles and the individual models are discussed by analyzing associated uncertainties and probability distribution maps. Results suggest that the stochastic method may reduce position errors significantly for 12 to 72??h forecasts and hence compete with pure deterministic approaches. ?? 2007 NATO Undersea Research Centre (NURC).

  4. Multicritical phase diagrams of the Blume-Emery-Griffiths model with repulsive biquadratic coupling including metastable phases: the pair approximation and the path probability method with pair distribution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Keskin, Mustafa; Erdinc, Ahmet

    2004-01-01

    As a continuation of the previously published work, the pair approximation of the cluster variation method is applied to study the temperature dependences of the order parameters of the Blume-Emery-Griffiths model with repulsive biquadratic coupling on a body centered cubic lattice. We obtain metastable and unstable branches of the order parameters besides the stable branches and phase transitions of these branches are investigated extensively. We study the dynamics of the model by the path probability method with pair distribution in order to make sure that we find and define the metastable and unstable branches of the order parameters completely and correctly. We present the metastable phase diagram in addition to the equilibrium phase diagram and also the first-order phase transition line for the unstable branches of the quadrupole order parameter is superimposed on the phase diagrams. It is found that the metastable phase diagram and the first-order phase boundary for the unstable quadrupole order parameter always exist at the low temperatures which are consistent with experimental and theoretical works

  5. Summed Probability Distribution of 14C Dates Suggests Regional Divergences in the Population Dynamics of the Jomon Period in Eastern Japan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crema, Enrico R; Habu, Junko; Kobayashi, Kenichi; Madella, Marco

    2016-01-01

    Recent advances in the use of summed probability distribution (SPD) of calibrated 14C dates have opened new possibilities for studying prehistoric demography. The degree of correlation between climate change and population dynamics can now be accurately quantified, and divergences in the demographic history of distinct geographic areas can be statistically assessed. Here we contribute to this research agenda by reconstructing the prehistoric population change of Jomon hunter-gatherers between 7,000 and 3,000 cal BP. We collected 1,433 14C dates from three different regions in Eastern Japan (Kanto, Aomori and Hokkaido) and established that the observed fluctuations in the SPDs were statistically significant. We also introduced a new non-parametric permutation test for comparing multiple sets of SPDs that highlights point of divergences in the population history of different geographic regions. Our analyses indicate a general rise-and-fall pattern shared by the three regions but also some key regional differences during the 6th millennium cal BP. The results confirm some of the patterns suggested by previous archaeological studies based on house and site counts but offer statistical significance and an absolute chronological framework that will enable future studies aiming to establish potential correlation with climatic changes.

  6. A weighted bootstrap method for the determination of probability density functions of freshwater distribution coefficients (Kds) of Co, Cs, Sr and I radioisotopes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Durrieu, G; Ciffroy, P; Garnier, J-M

    2006-11-01

    The objective of the study was to provide global probability density functions (PDFs) representing the uncertainty of distribution coefficients (Kds) in freshwater for radioisotopes of Co, Cs, Sr and I. A comprehensive database containing Kd values referenced in 61 articles was first built and quality scores were affected to each data point according to various criteria (e.g. presentation of data, contact times, pH, solid-to-liquid ratio, expert judgement). A weighted bootstrapping procedure was then set up in order to build PDFs, in such a way that more importance is given to the most relevant data points (i.e. those corresponding to typical natural environments). However, it was also assessed that the relevance and the robustness of the PDFs determined by our procedure depended on the number of Kd values in the database. Owing to the large database, conditional PDFs were also proposed, for site studies where some parametric information is known (e.g. pH, contact time between radionuclides and particles, solid-to-liquid ratio). Such conditional PDFs reduce the uncertainty on the Kd values. These global and conditional PDFs are useful for end-users of dose models because the uncertainty and sensitivity of Kd values are taking into account.

  7. Summed Probability Distribution of 14C Dates Suggests Regional Divergences in the Population Dynamics of the Jomon Period in Eastern Japan.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Enrico R Crema

    Full Text Available Recent advances in the use of summed probability distribution (SPD of calibrated 14C dates have opened new possibilities for studying prehistoric demography. The degree of correlation between climate change and population dynamics can now be accurately quantified, and divergences in the demographic history of distinct geographic areas can be statistically assessed. Here we contribute to this research agenda by reconstructing the prehistoric population change of Jomon hunter-gatherers between 7,000 and 3,000 cal BP. We collected 1,433 14C dates from three different regions in Eastern Japan (Kanto, Aomori and Hokkaido and established that the observed fluctuations in the SPDs were statistically significant. We also introduced a new non-parametric permutation test for comparing multiple sets of SPDs that highlights point of divergences in the population history of different geographic regions. Our analyses indicate a general rise-and-fall pattern shared by the three regions but also some key regional differences during the 6th millennium cal BP. The results confirm some of the patterns suggested by previous archaeological studies based on house and site counts but offer statistical significance and an absolute chronological framework that will enable future studies aiming to establish potential correlation with climatic changes.

  8. Monte Carlo simulation of electron depth distribution and backscattering for carbon films deposited on aluminium as a function of incidence angle and primary energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dapor, Maurizio

    2005-01-01

    Carbon films are deposited on various substrates (polymers, polyester fabrics, polyester yarns, metal alloys) both for experimental and technological motivations (medical devices, biocompatible coatings, food package and so on). Computational studies of the penetration of electron beams in supported thin film of carbon are very useful in order to compare the simulated results with analytical techniques data (obtained by scanning electron microscopy and/or Auger electron spectroscopy) and investigate the film characteristics. In the present paper, the few keV electron depth distribution and backscattering coefficient for the special case of film of carbon deposited on aluminium are investigated, by a Monte Carlo simulation, as a function of the incidence angle and primary electron energy. The simulated results can be used as a way to evaluate the carbon film thickness by a set of measurements of the backscattering coefficient

  9. Effect of additives on distributions of lamellar structures in sheared polymer: a study of synchrotron small-angle x-ray scattering

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhu Pengwei; Edward, Graham [Cooperative Research Center for Polymers (Australia); Nichols, Lance [Cooperative Research Centre for Polymers, Vic 3800 (Australia)

    2009-12-21

    The effects of additives on the distributions of lamellar morphology and orientation in sheared isotactic polypropylene were investigated using the small beam of synchrotron small-angle x-ray scattering. The Cu-phthalocyanine can template the lamellar orientation even under low shear rates, whereas the ultramarine blue cannot. The surface contact is suggested to play a role in stabilizing the formation of oriented nuclei which subsequently direct the growth of oriented lamellae. The additives have no notable effects on the long spacing in the shear region. However, at high shear rates, they decrease the thickness of crystalline lamellae or increase the thickness of amorphous lamellae. Since the additives increase the degree of volume crystalline in the shear region, the number of crystalline lamellae should be increased. The results are helpful in designing and selecting suitable additives for controlling lamellar morphology and orientation.

  10. Choice probability generating functions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fosgerau, Mogens; McFadden, Daniel; Bierlaire, Michel

    2010-01-01

    This paper establishes that every random utility discrete choice model (RUM) has a representation that can be characterized by a choice-probability generating function (CPGF) with specific properties, and that every function with these specific properties is consistent with a RUM. The choice...... probabilities from the RUM are obtained from the gradient of the CPGF. Mixtures of RUM are characterized by logarithmic mixtures of their associated CPGF. The paper relates CPGF to multivariate extreme value distributions, and reviews and extends methods for constructing generating functions for applications...

  11. Analysis of biopsy outcome after three-dimensional conformal radiation therapy of prostate cancer using dose-distribution variables and tumor control probability models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Levegruen, Sabine; Jackson, Andrew; Zelefsky, Michael J.; Venkatraman, Ennapadam S.; Skwarchuk, Mark W.; Schlegel, Wolfgang; Fuks, Zvi; Leibel, Steven A.; Ling, C. Clifton

    2000-01-01

    Purpose: To investigate tumor control following three-dimensional conformal radiation therapy (3D-CRT) of prostate cancer and to identify dose-distribution variables that correlate with local control assessed through posttreatment prostate biopsies. Methods and Material: Data from 132 patients, treated at Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center (MSKCC), who had a prostate biopsy 2.5 years or more after 3D-CRT for T1c-T3 prostate cancer with prescription doses of 64.8-81 Gy were analyzed. Variables derived from the dose distribution in the PTV included: minimum dose (Dmin), maximum dose (Dmax), mean dose (Dmean), dose to n% of the PTV (Dn), where n = 1%, ..., 99%. The concept of the equivalent uniform dose (EUD) was evaluated for different values of the surviving fraction at 2 Gy (SF 2 ). Four tumor control probability (TCP) models (one phenomenologic model using a logistic function and three Poisson cell kill models) were investigated using two sets of input parameters, one for low and one for high T-stage tumors. Application of both sets to all patients was also investigated. In addition, several tumor-related prognostic variables were examined (including T-stage, Gleason score). Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed. The ability of the logistic regression models (univariate and multivariate) to predict the biopsy result correctly was tested by performing cross-validation analyses and evaluating the results in terms of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. Results: In univariate analysis, prescription dose (Dprescr), Dmax, Dmean, dose to n% of the PTV with n of 70% or less correlate with outcome (p 2 : EUD correlates significantly with outcome for SF 2 of 0.4 or more, but not for lower SF 2 values. Using either of the two input parameters sets, all TCP models correlate with outcome (p 2 , is limited because the low dose region may not coincide with the tumor location. Instead, for MSKCC prostate cancer patients with their

  12. The perception of probability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gallistel, C R; Krishan, Monika; Liu, Ye; Miller, Reilly; Latham, Peter E

    2014-01-01

    We present a computational model to explain the results from experiments in which subjects estimate the hidden probability parameter of a stepwise nonstationary Bernoulli process outcome by outcome. The model captures the following results qualitatively and quantitatively, with only 2 free parameters: (a) Subjects do not update their estimate after each outcome; they step from one estimate to another at irregular intervals. (b) The joint distribution of step widths and heights cannot be explained on the assumption that a threshold amount of change must be exceeded in order for them to indicate a change in their perception. (c) The mapping of observed probability to the median perceived probability is the identity function over the full range of probabilities. (d) Precision (how close estimates are to the best possible estimate) is good and constant over the full range. (e) Subjects quickly detect substantial changes in the hidden probability parameter. (f) The perceived probability sometimes changes dramatically from one observation to the next. (g) Subjects sometimes have second thoughts about a previous change perception, after observing further outcomes. (h) The frequency with which they perceive changes moves in the direction of the true frequency over sessions. (Explaining this finding requires 2 additional parametric assumptions.) The model treats the perception of the current probability as a by-product of the construction of a compact encoding of the experienced sequence in terms of its change points. It illustrates the why and the how of intermittent Bayesian belief updating and retrospective revision in simple perception. It suggests a reinterpretation of findings in the recent literature on the neurobiology of decision making. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved).

  13. Ultra small angle neutron scattering from superconducting filament structures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Amenitsch, H.

    1999-01-01

    With a perfect crystal camera, ultra small-angle scattering measurements were performed to investigate the internal diffusion process of tin inside a superconducting multi-filament wire caused by a temperature treatment. Commercially available Nb 3 Sn superconducting multi-filament wires were treated at 700 C with varying ageing times up to 144 h. A theoretical model taking into account the geometrical form, the size distribution, the interference term and the multiple scattering has been developed to understand and to describe the small angle diffraction pattern. Additionally, the diffusion of H and D into the filament wires was used to vary the scattering length density inside the wires. The results show a direct relationship between the different technological treatments and the characteristic small-angle scattering parameters, like Guinier radius and small-angle scattering probability. (orig.) [de

  14. The Comparison of Stress Distribution with Different Implant Numbers and Inclination Angles In All-on-four and Conventional Methods in Maxilla: A Finite Element Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fariba Saleh Saber

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Background and aims. All-on-four technique involves the use of tilted implants to allow for shorter cantilevers. This finite element analysis aimed at investigating the amount and distribution of stress in maxillary bone surrounding the implants with all-on-four vs. frequently used method with six implants technique using different numbers and inclination angles. Materials and methods. A 3D edentulous maxillary model was created and implants were virtually placed anterior to the maxillary sinus and splinted with a superstructure. In total, five models were designed. In the first to the fourth models, four implants were placed with distal implants inclined 0, 15, 30, and 45 degrees, respectively. In the fifth model, six vertical implants were placed. 100 N loading was placed in the left most distal region of the superstructure. Maximum von Mises stress values were evaluated in cancellous and cortical bone. Results. The maximum stress values recorded in cancellous and cortical bone were 7.15 MPa and 51.69 MPa, respectively (model I. The reduction in stress values in models II to V 6%, 18%, 54%, and 24% in cancellous bone and 12%, 36%,62%, and 62% in cortical bone, respectively. Conclusion. Increasing the inclination in posterior implants resulted in reduction of cantilever length and maximum stress decline in both cancellous and cortical bone. The effect of cantilever length seems to be a dominant factor which can diminish stress even with less number of implants.

  15. Distribution of functional groups in periodic mesoporous organosilica materials studied by small-angle neutron scattering with in situ adsorption of nitrogen

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Monir Sharifi

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Periodic mesoporous materials of the type (R′O3Si-R-Si(OR′3 with benzene as an organic bridge and a crystal-like periodicity within the pore walls were functionalized with SO3H or SO3− groups and investigated by small-angle neutron scattering (SANS with in situ nitrogen adsorption at 77 K. If N2 is adsorbed in the pores the SANS measurements show a complete matching of all of the diffraction signals that are caused by the long-range ordering of the mesopores in the benzene-PMO, due to the fact that the benzene-PMO walls possess a neutron scattering length density (SLD similar to that of nitrogen in the condensed state. However, signals at higher q-values (>1 1/Å are not affected with respect to their SANS intensity, even after complete pore filling, confirming the assumption of a crystal-like periodicity within the PMO material walls due to π–π interactions between the organic bridges. The SLD of pristine benzene-PMO was altered by functionalizing the surface with different amounts of SO3H-groups, using the grafting method. For a low degree of functionalization (0.81 mmol SO3H·g−1 and/or an inhomogeneous distribution of the SO3H-groups, the SLD changes only negligibly, and thus, complete contrast matching is still found. However, for higher amounts of SO3H-groups (1.65 mmol SO3H·g−1 being present in the mesopores, complete matching of the neutron diffraction signals is no longer observed proving that homogeneously distributed SO3H-groups on the inner pore walls of the benzene-PMO alter the SLD in a way that it no longer fits to the SLD of the condensed N2.

  16. Distribution of functional groups in periodic mesoporous organosilica materials studied by small-angle neutron scattering with in situ adsorption of nitrogen.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharifi, Monir; Wallacher, Dirk; Wark, Michael

    2012-01-01

    Periodic mesoporous materials of the type (R'O)(3)Si-R-Si(OR')(3) with benzene as an organic bridge and a crystal-like periodicity within the pore walls were functionalized with SO(3)H or SO(3) (-) groups and investigated by small-angle neutron scattering (SANS) with in situ nitrogen adsorption at 77 K. If N(2) is adsorbed in the pores the SANS measurements show a complete matching of all of the diffraction signals that are caused by the long-range ordering of the mesopores in the benzene-PMO, due to the fact that the benzene-PMO walls possess a neutron scattering length density (SLD) similar to that of nitrogen in the condensed state. However, signals at higher q-values (>1 1/Å) are not affected with respect to their SANS intensity, even after complete pore filling, confirming the assumption of a crystal-like periodicity within the PMO material walls due to π-π interactions between the organic bridges. The SLD of pristine benzene-PMO was altered by functionalizing the surface with different amounts of SO(3)H-groups, using the grafting method. For a low degree of functionalization (0.81 mmol SO(3)H·g(-1)) and/or an inhomogeneous distribution of the SO(3)H-groups, the SLD changes only negligibly, and thus, complete contrast matching is still found. However, for higher amounts of SO(3)H-groups (1.65 mmol SO(3)H·g(-1)) being present in the mesopores, complete matching of the neutron diffraction signals is no longer observed proving that homogeneously distributed SO(3)H-groups on the inner pore walls of the benzene-PMO alter the SLD in a way that it no longer fits to the SLD of the condensed N(2).

  17. Using probability of drug use as independent variable in a register-based pharmacoepidemiological cause-effect study-An application of the reverse waiting time distribution

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hallas, Jesper; Pottegård, Anton; Støvring, Henrik

    2017-01-01

    BACKGROUND: In register-based pharmacoepidemiological studies, each day of follow-up is usually categorized either as exposed or unexposed. However, there is an underlying continuous probability of exposure, and by insisting on a dichotomy, researchers unwillingly force a nondifferential misclass...

  18. Scaling Qualitative Probability

    OpenAIRE

    Burgin, Mark

    2017-01-01

    There are different approaches to qualitative probability, which includes subjective probability. We developed a representation of qualitative probability based on relational systems, which allows modeling uncertainty by probability structures and is more coherent than existing approaches. This setting makes it possible proving that any comparative probability is induced by some probability structure (Theorem 2.1), that classical probability is a probability structure (Theorem 2.2) and that i...

  19. The Inductive Applications of Probability Calculus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Corrado Gini

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The Author goes back to Founders of Probability calculus to investigate their original interpretation of the probability measure in the applications of the probability theory to real problems. The Author puts in evidence some misunderstandings related to the inversion of deductions derived by the use of probability distributions for investigating the causes of events.

  20. Probably Almost Bayes Decisions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Anoulova, S.; Fischer, Paul; Poelt, S.

    1996-01-01

    In this paper, we investigate the problem of classifying objects which are given by feature vectors with Boolean entries. Our aim is to "(efficiently) learn probably almost optimal classifications" from examples. A classical approach in pattern recognition uses empirical estimations of the Bayesian...... discriminant functions for this purpose. We analyze this approach for different classes of distribution functions of Boolean features:kth order Bahadur-Lazarsfeld expansions andkth order Chow expansions. In both cases, we obtain upper bounds for the required sample size which are small polynomials...

  1. Generalized Probability Functions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexandre Souto Martinez

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available From the integration of nonsymmetrical hyperboles, a one-parameter generalization of the logarithmic function is obtained. Inverting this function, one obtains the generalized exponential function. Motivated by the mathematical curiosity, we show that these generalized functions are suitable to generalize some probability density functions (pdfs. A very reliable rank distribution can be conveniently described by the generalized exponential function. Finally, we turn the attention to the generalization of one- and two-tail stretched exponential functions. We obtain, as particular cases, the generalized error function, the Zipf-Mandelbrot pdf, the generalized Gaussian and Laplace pdf. Their cumulative functions and moments were also obtained analytically.

  2. Probability for physicists

    CERN Document Server

    Sirca, Simon

    2016-01-01

    This book is designed as a practical and intuitive introduction to probability, statistics and random quantities for physicists. The book aims at getting to the main points by a clear, hands-on exposition supported by well-illustrated and worked-out examples. A strong focus on applications in physics and other natural sciences is maintained throughout. In addition to basic concepts of random variables, distributions, expected values and statistics, the book discusses the notions of entropy, Markov processes, and fundamentals of random number generation and Monte-Carlo methods.

  3. Investigating AN Unusual Pitch Angle Distribution during the Dropout on September 12-13, 2014: Wave-Particle Interactions and Magnetopause Compression as a Major Role for Dropout in Different Energy Levels and Lstar

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dal Lago, A.; Medeiros, C.; Souza, V. M. C. E. S.; Vieira, L.; Sibeck, D. G.; Halford, A. J.; Alves, L. R.; da Silva, L.; Marchezi, J.; Jauer, P. R.; Rockenbach, M.; Silveira, M. D.; Koga, D.; Dallaqua, R.; Mendes, O., Jr.

    2016-12-01

    Following the arrival of two interplanetary coronal mass ejections on September 12, 2014, the Relativistic Electron-Proton Telescope (REPT) instruments onboard the twin Van Allen Probes observed a long term dropout in outer belt electron fluxes. As noted by Alves et al. [2016], the shocks compressed the magnetopause, thereby enabling the loss of relativistic electrons with large pitch angles to the magnetosheath by drift shell splitting and magnetopause shadowing. Alves et al. [2016] invoked enhanced radial transport associated with ULF wave activity and/or scattering into the atmosphere by chorus waves to explain electron losses deeper within the magnetosphere (within L = 5.5). Here we show that the REPT energetic electron pitch angle distributions provide strong evidence for precipitation via interaction with EMIC waves. EMFISIS magnetic field observations on Van Allen Probe B confirm the sporadic presence of EMIC waves during the most intense dropout phase on September 12. In combination, the loss of large pitch angle electrons by drift shadowing and small pitch angle electrons via EMIC wave scattering results in highly unusual butterfly electron pitch angle distributions.

  4. The effect of Q angle on ankle sprain occurrence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pefanis, Nikolaos; Papaharalampous, Xenofon; Tsiganos, Georgios; Papadakou, Eugenia; Baltopoulos, Panagiotis

    2009-02-01

    The intersegmental joint forces and the structures that must resist them (articular surfaces, ligaments, and musculature) are related through anatomical alignment of the joints and skeletal system. Ankle joint structure can affect or be affected by bony malformations of the surrounding areas, including the knee and hip. The aim of the current study is to examine the possible relationship between the quadriceps (Q) angle and other factors (anthropometric characteristics, medical history, and age) on the occurrence of ankle sprains, because its value, when assessed correctly, provides useful information for the anatomical alignment of the lower extremity. The study sample consisted of 45 high-level athletes, evenly distributed among 3 sports (basketball, soccer, and volleyball). Q angle measurements were made on radiographs. The study lasted for 2 years. A logistic regression was used to determine the importance of each factor on the probability in question. A significance level of P = .1 was used. The factors contributing more to an ankle sprain were a previous injury of the same type ( P .10). The results were valid even when the BMI variable was substituted by body inertia propensity, a derived variable. The Q angle remained statistically nonsignificant ( P > .10). The Q angle magnitude does not seem to be a decisive factor that could increase the probability of spraining an ankle. The most important factors that could affect the probability of sustaining an ankle sprain are the athlete's age, anthropometric characteristics, and prior injuries.

  5. Failure probability under parameter uncertainty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerrard, R; Tsanakas, A

    2011-05-01

    In many problems of risk analysis, failure is equivalent to the event of a random risk factor exceeding a given threshold. Failure probabilities can be controlled if a decisionmaker is able to set the threshold at an appropriate level. This abstract situation applies, for example, to environmental risks with infrastructure controls; to supply chain risks with inventory controls; and to insurance solvency risks with capital controls. However, uncertainty around the distribution of the risk factor implies that parameter error will be present and the measures taken to control failure probabilities may not be effective. We show that parameter uncertainty increases the probability (understood as expected frequency) of failures. For a large class of loss distributions, arising from increasing transformations of location-scale families (including the log-normal, Weibull, and Pareto distributions), the article shows that failure probabilities can be exactly calculated, as they are independent of the true (but unknown) parameters. Hence it is possible to obtain an explicit measure of the effect of parameter uncertainty on failure probability. Failure probability can be controlled in two different ways: (1) by reducing the nominal required failure probability, depending on the size of the available data set, and (2) by modifying of the distribution itself that is used to calculate the risk control. Approach (1) corresponds to a frequentist/regulatory view of probability, while approach (2) is consistent with a Bayesian/personalistic view. We furthermore show that the two approaches are consistent in achieving the required failure probability. Finally, we briefly discuss the effects of data pooling and its systemic risk implications. © 2010 Society for Risk Analysis.

  6. Contributions to quantum probability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fritz, Tobias

    2010-06-25

    Chapter 1: On the existence of quantum representations for two dichotomic measurements. Under which conditions do outcome probabilities of measurements possess a quantum-mechanical model? This kind of problem is solved here for the case of two dichotomic von Neumann measurements which can be applied repeatedly to a quantum system with trivial dynamics. The solution uses methods from the theory of operator algebras and the theory of moment problems. The ensuing conditions reveal surprisingly simple relations between certain quantum-mechanical probabilities. It also shown that generally, none of these relations holds in general probabilistic models. This result might facilitate further experimental discrimination between quantum mechanics and other general probabilistic theories. Chapter 2: Possibilistic Physics. I try to outline a framework for fundamental physics where the concept of probability gets replaced by the concept of possibility. Whereas a probabilistic theory assigns a state-dependent probability value to each outcome of each measurement, a possibilistic theory merely assigns one of the state-dependent labels ''possible to occur'' or ''impossible to occur'' to each outcome of each measurement. It is argued that Spekkens' combinatorial toy theory of quantum mechanics is inconsistent in a probabilistic framework, but can be regarded as possibilistic. Then, I introduce the concept of possibilistic local hidden variable models and derive a class of possibilistic Bell inequalities which are violated for the possibilistic Popescu-Rohrlich boxes. The chapter ends with a philosophical discussion on possibilistic vs. probabilistic. It can be argued that, due to better falsifiability properties, a possibilistic theory has higher predictive power than a probabilistic one. Chapter 3: The quantum region for von Neumann measurements with postselection. It is determined under which conditions a probability distribution on a

  7. Contributions to quantum probability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fritz, Tobias

    2010-01-01

    Chapter 1: On the existence of quantum representations for two dichotomic measurements. Under which conditions do outcome probabilities of measurements possess a quantum-mechanical model? This kind of problem is solved here for the case of two dichotomic von Neumann measurements which can be applied repeatedly to a quantum system with trivial dynamics. The solution uses methods from the theory of operator algebras and the theory of moment problems. The ensuing conditions reveal surprisingly simple relations between certain quantum-mechanical probabilities. It also shown that generally, none of these relations holds in general probabilistic models. This result might facilitate further experimental discrimination between quantum mechanics and other general probabilistic theories. Chapter 2: Possibilistic Physics. I try to outline a framework for fundamental physics where the concept of probability gets replaced by the concept of possibility. Whereas a probabilistic theory assigns a state-dependent probability value to each outcome of each measurement, a possibilistic theory merely assigns one of the state-dependent labels ''possible to occur'' or ''impossible to occur'' to each outcome of each measurement. It is argued that Spekkens' combinatorial toy theory of quantum mechanics is inconsistent in a probabilistic framework, but can be regarded as possibilistic. Then, I introduce the concept of possibilistic local hidden variable models and derive a class of possibilistic Bell inequalities which are violated for the possibilistic Popescu-Rohrlich boxes. The chapter ends with a philosophical discussion on possibilistic vs. probabilistic. It can be argued that, due to better falsifiability properties, a possibilistic theory has higher predictive power than a probabilistic one. Chapter 3: The quantum region for von Neumann measurements with postselection. It is determined under which conditions a probability distribution on a finite set can occur as the outcome

  8. Measurement of the weak mixing angle and the spin of the gluon from angular distributions in the reaction pp{yields} Z/{gamma}*+X{yields}{mu}{sup +}{mu}{sup -}+X with ATLAS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schmieden, Kristof

    2013-04-15

    The measurement of the effective weak mixing angle with the ATLAS experiment at the LHC is presented. It is extracted from the forward-backward asymmetry in the polar angle distribution of the muons originating from Z boson decays in the reaction pp{yields}Z/{gamma}{sup *}+X{yields} {mu}{sup +}{mu}{sup -}+X. In total 4.7 fb{sup -1} of proton-proton collisions at {radical}(s)=7 TeV are analysed. In addition, the full polar and azimuthal angular distributions are measured as a function of the transverse momentum of the Z/{gamma}{sup *} system and are compared to several simulations as well as recent results obtained in p anti p collisions. Finally, the angular distributions are used to confirm the spin of the gluon using the Lam-Tung relation.

  9. Multiple decomposability of probabilities on contractible locally ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    1970) (Berlin-Heidelberg-New. York: Springer). [10] Heyer H, Probability Measures on Locally Compact Groups (1977) (Berlin-Heidelberg-. New York: Springer). [11] Jurek Z and Mason D, Operator Limit Distributions in Probability Theory (1993).

  10. Identification of probabilities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vitányi, Paul M B; Chater, Nick

    2017-02-01

    Within psychology, neuroscience and artificial intelligence, there has been increasing interest in the proposal that the brain builds probabilistic models of sensory and linguistic input: that is, to infer a probabilistic model from a sample. The practical problems of such inference are substantial: the brain has limited data and restricted computational resources. But there is a more fundamental question: is the problem of inferring a probabilistic model from a sample possible even in principle? We explore this question and find some surprisingly positive and general results. First, for a broad class of probability distributions characterized by computability restrictions, we specify a learning algorithm that will almost surely identify a probability distribution in the limit given a finite i.i.d. sample of sufficient but unknown length. This is similarly shown to hold for sequences generated by a broad class of Markov chains, subject to computability assumptions. The technical tool is the strong law of large numbers. Second, for a large class of dependent sequences, we specify an algorithm which identifies in the limit a computable measure for which the sequence is typical, in the sense of Martin-Löf (there may be more than one such measure). The technical tool is the theory of Kolmogorov complexity. We analyze the associated predictions in both cases. We also briefly consider special cases, including language learning, and wider theoretical implications for psychology.

  11. Characteristics of service requests and service processes of fire and rescue service dispatch centers: analysis of real world data and the underlying probability distributions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krueger, Ute; Schimmelpfeng, Katja

    2013-03-01

    A sufficient staffing level in fire and rescue dispatch centers is crucial for saving lives. Therefore, it is important to estimate the expected workload properly. For this purpose, we analyzed whether a dispatch center can be considered as a call center. Current call center publications very often model call arrivals as a non-homogeneous Poisson process. This bases on the underlying assumption of the caller's independent decision to call or not to call. In case of an emergency, however, there are often calls from more than one person reporting the same incident and thus, these calls are not independent. Therefore, this paper focuses on the dependency of calls in a fire and rescue dispatch center. We analyzed and evaluated several distributions in this setting. Results are illustrated using real-world data collected from a typical German dispatch center in Cottbus ("Leitstelle Lausitz"). We identified the Pólya distribution as being superior to the Poisson distribution in describing the call arrival rate and the Weibull distribution to be more suitable than the exponential distribution for interarrival times and service times. However, the commonly used distributions offer acceptable approximations. This is important for estimating a sufficient staffing level in practice using, e.g., the Erlang-C model.

  12. Probability theory and mathematical statistics for engineers

    CERN Document Server

    Pugachev, V S

    1984-01-01

    Probability Theory and Mathematical Statistics for Engineers focuses on the concepts of probability theory and mathematical statistics for finite-dimensional random variables.The publication first underscores the probabilities of events, random variables, and numerical characteristics of random variables. Discussions focus on canonical expansions of random vectors, second-order moments of random vectors, generalization of the density concept, entropy of a distribution, direct evaluation of probabilities, and conditional probabilities. The text then examines projections of random vector

  13. The optimization of energy storage capacity for distribution networks with the consideration of probability correlation between wind farms based on PSO algorithm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Bo; Li, Hongxia; Cao, Xueyuan; Zhu, Xiaojun; Gan, Zhongxue

    2017-04-01

    With the rapid development of the energy networks, various forms of renewable energy resources are absorbed into it. Because of the inherent random behaviour of the renewable resources, introducing them into the energy network will destroy the stability of the grids. It is required to use proper energy storages to reduce the uncertain fluctuation from the renewable energy resources. For a concrete model research, this paper presented an explicit method to give suitable capacities of the energy storages in consideration of the economics of the storage, grid losses and the probabilities of the bus voltages violation, for situations of the winds-power generations injected into the power network. Furthermore, the influence of the correlation between the different winds farms on the optimal storage capacity can also be studied by this method.

  14. Comparação de distribuições de probabilidade e estimativa da precipitação provável para região de Barbacena, MG Comparasion of probability distribution models and estimative of the probable rainfall for the Barbacena County, MG

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bruno Teixeira Ribeiro

    2007-10-01

    Full Text Available Estudos probabilísticos envolvendo variáveis climáticas são de extrema importância para as atividades da agropecuária, construção civil, turismo, transporte, dentre outros. Visando contribuir para o planejamento da agricultura irrigada, este trabalho teve como objetivos comparar distribuições de probabilidade ajustadas às séries históricas decendiais e mensais, e estimar as precipitações prováveis para o município de Barbacena, MG. Foram estudados os meses de dezembro, janeiro e fevereiro, no período de 1942 a 2003, constituindo-se séries históricas com 62 anos de observações. As lâminas diárias foram totalizadas em períodos mensais e decendiais, sendo aplicadas as distribuições log-Normal 2 parâmetros, log-Normal 3 parâmetros e Gama. Para avaliar a adequabilidade das distribuições, nos períodos estudados, utilizou-se o teste de Qui-quadrado (chi2, ao nível de 5% de significância. As precipitações prováveis foram estimadas para cada período estudado utilizando a distribuição que apresentou o menor valor de chi2, nos níveis de probabilidade de excedência de 75, 90 e 98%. A distribuição Gama foi a que melhor se ajustou aos dados. O estudo de precipitações prováveis é uma boa ferramenta no auxílio da tomada de decisão quanto ao planejamento e uso da irrigação.Probabilistic studies involving climatic variables are of extreme importance for farming activities, construction, tourism, among others. Seeking to contribute for the planning of irrigate agriculture, this work had as objectives to compare adjusted probability distribution models to the monthly and decennial historical series and to estimate the probable rainfall for the Barbacena County, Minas Gerais State, Brazil. Rainfall data of December, January and February, from 1942 to 2003, were studied, constituting historical series with 62 years of observations. Daily rainfall depths were added for 10 and 30 days, applying Gama, log-Normal 2 and

  15. Quantum probability measures and tomographic probability densities

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Amosov, GG; Man'ko, [No Value

    2004-01-01

    Using a simple relation of the Dirac delta-function to generalized the theta-function, the relationship between the tomographic probability approach and the quantum probability measure approach with the description of quantum states is discussed. The quantum state tomogram expressed in terms of the

  16. ESTIMATING LONG GRB JET OPENING ANGLES AND REST-FRAME ENERGETICS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Goldstein, Adam [Space Science Office, VP62, NASA/Marshall Space Flight Center, Huntsville, AL 35812 (United States); Connaughton, Valerie [Science and Technology Institute, Universities Space Research Association, Huntsville, AL 35805 (United States); Briggs, Michael S.; Burns, Eric, E-mail: adam.m.goldstein@nasa.gov [Center for Space Plasma and Aeronomic Research, University of Alabama in Huntsville, 320 Sparkman Drive, Huntsville, AL 35899 (United States)

    2016-02-10

    We present a method to estimate the jet opening angles of long duration gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) using the prompt gamma-ray energetics and an inversion of the Ghirlanda relation, which is a correlation between the time-integrated peak energy of the GRB prompt spectrum and the collimation-corrected energy in gamma-rays. The derived jet opening angles using this method and detailed assumptions match well with the corresponding inferred jet opening angles obtained when a break in the afterglow is observed. Furthermore, using a model of the predicted long GRB redshift probability distribution observable by the Fermi Gamma-ray Burst Monitor (GBM), we estimate the probability distributions for the jet opening angle and rest-frame energetics for a large sample of GBM GRBs for which the redshifts have not been observed. Previous studies have only used a handful of GRBs to estimate these properties due to the paucity of observed afterglow jet breaks, spectroscopic redshifts, and comprehensive prompt gamma-ray observations, and we potentially expand the number of GRBs that can be used in this analysis by more than an order of magnitude. In this analysis, we also present an inferred distribution of jet breaks which indicates that a large fraction of jet breaks are not observable with current instrumentation and observing strategies. We present simple parameterizations for the jet angle, energetics, and jet break distributions so that they may be used in future studies.

  17. Fission-fragment mass distribution and estimation of the cluster emission probability in the γ + 232Th and 181Ta reactions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Karamyan, S.A.; Adam, J.; Belov, A.G.; Chaloun, P.; Norseev, Yu.V.; Stegajlov, V.I.

    1997-01-01

    Fission-fragment mass distribution has been measured by the cumulative yields of radionuclides detected in the 232 Th(γ,f)-reaction at the Bremsstrahlung endpoint energies of 12 and 24 MeV. The yield upper limits have been estimated for the light nuclei 24 Na, 28 Mg, 38 S etc. at the Th and Ta targets exposure to the 24 MeV Bremsstrahlung. The results are discussed in terms of the multimodal fission phenomena and cluster emission >from a deformed fissioning system or from a compound nucleus

  18. Measurement Invariance, Entropy, and Probability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Eric Smith

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available We show that the natural scaling of measurement for a particular problem defines the most likely probability distribution of observations taken from that measurement scale. Our approach extends the method of maximum entropy to use measurement scale as a type of information constraint. We argue that a very common measurement scale is linear at small magnitudes grading into logarithmic at large magnitudes, leading to observations that often follow Student’s probability distribution which has a Gaussian shape for small fluctuations from the mean and a power law shape for large fluctuations from the mean. An inverse scaling often arises in which measures naturally grade from logarithmic to linear as one moves from small to large magnitudes, leading to observations that often follow a gamma probability distribution. A gamma distribution has a power law shape for small magnitudes and an exponential shape for large magnitudes. The two measurement scales are natural inverses connected by the Laplace integral transform. This inversion connects the two major scaling patterns commonly found in nature. We also show that superstatistics is a special case of an integral transform, and thus can be understood as a particular way in which to change the scale of measurement. Incorporating information about measurement scale into maximum entropy provides a general approach to the relations between measurement, information and probability.

  19. Some consideration on the relevance of concepts based on the probability distribution of words reminded by stimulus terms concerning atomic energy and radiation utilization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Urabe, Itsumasa

    2002-01-01

    The relevance of concepts brought to mind by stimulus terms concerning atomic energy and radiation utilization has been investigated to learn how people understand the present status of nuclear technology. The relevance of concepts was defined as the frequency distribution of words that came to mind immediately after seeing selected terms needed for present-day life as well as for nuclear engineering. An analysis of knowledge structure shows that a concept of atomic energy has a close relation with that of electric power generation; an understanding of nuclear power utilization may be promoted in relation to an understanding of energy and environmental problems because the concepts of energy, atomic energy, electric power generation, and natural environment have closer relations with one another; a concept of radiation has various relations with harmful radiological health effects, but little relation with industrial, agricultural, and other beneficial uses except of nuclear power generation or medical applications. It also became clear from the investigation that studies on natural radiation may be important to promote an understanding of radiation utilization because a concept of the natural environment does not yet relate to that of natural radiation. (author)

  20. Cerebral [18 F]T807/AV1451 retention pattern in clinically probable CTE resembles pathognomonic distribution of CTE tauopathy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dickstein, D L; Pullman, M Y; Fernandez, C; Short, J A; Kostakoglu, L; Knesaurek, K; Soleimani, L; Jordan, B D; Gordon, W A; Dams-O'Connor, K; Delman, B N; Wong, E; Tang, C Y; DeKosky, S T; Stone, J R; Cantu, R C; Sano, M; Hof, P R; Gandy, S

    2016-09-27

    Chronic traumatic encephalopathy (CTE) is a neurodegenerative disorder most commonly associated with repetitive traumatic brain injury (TBI) and characterized by the presence of neurofibrillary tangles of tau protein, known as a tauopathy. Currently, the diagnosis of CTE can only be definitively established postmortem. However, a new positron emission tomography (PET) ligand, [ 18 F]T807/AV1451, may provide the antemortem detection of tau aggregates, and thus various tauopathies, including CTE. Our goal was to examine [ 18 F]T807/AV1451 retention in athletes with neuropsychiatric symptoms associated with a history of multiple concussions. Here we report a 39-year-old retired National Football League player who suffered 22 concussions and manifested progressive neuropsychiatric symptoms. Emotional lability and irritability were the chief complaints. Serial neuropsychological exams revealed a decline in executive functioning, processing speed and fine motor skills. Naming was below average but other cognitive functions were preserved. Structural analysis of longitudinally acquired magenetic resonance imaging scans revealed cortical thinning in the left frontal and lateral temporal areas, as well as volume loss in the basal ganglia. PET with [ 18 F]florbetapir was negative for amyloidosis. The [ 18 F]T807/AV1451 PET showed multifocal areas of retention at the cortical gray matter-white matter junction, a distribution considered pathognomonic for CTE. [ 18 F]T807/AV1451 standard uptake value (SUV) analysis showed increased uptake (SUVr⩾1.1) in bilateral cingulate, occipital, and orbitofrontal cortices, and several temporal areas. Although definitive identification of the neuropathological underpinnings basis for [ 18 F]T807/AV1451 retention requires postmortem correlation, our data suggest that [ 18 F]T807/AV1451 tauopathy imaging may be a promising tool to detect and diagnose CTE-related tauopathy in living subjects.

  1. Distributional Inference

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kroese, A.H.; van der Meulen, E.A.; Poortema, Klaas; Schaafsma, W.

    1995-01-01

    The making of statistical inferences in distributional form is conceptionally complicated because the epistemic 'probabilities' assigned are mixtures of fact and fiction. In this respect they are essentially different from 'physical' or 'frequency-theoretic' probabilities. The distributional form is

  2. Philosophical theories of probability

    CERN Document Server

    Gillies, Donald

    2000-01-01

    The Twentieth Century has seen a dramatic rise in the use of probability and statistics in almost all fields of research. This has stimulated many new philosophical ideas on probability. Philosophical Theories of Probability is the first book to present a clear, comprehensive and systematic account of these various theories and to explain how they relate to one another. Gillies also offers a distinctive version of the propensity theory of probability, and the intersubjective interpretation, which develops the subjective theory.

  3. Review of criteria for the selection of probability distributions for wind speed data and introduction of the moment and L-moment ratio diagram methods, with a case study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ouarda, T.B.M.J.; Charron, C.; Chebana, F.

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • Review of criteria used to select probability distributions to model wind speed data. • Classical and L-moment ratio diagrams are applied to wind speed data. • The diagrams allow to select the best distribution to model each wind speed sample. • The goodness-of-fit statistics are more consistent with the L-moment ratio diagram. - Abstract: This paper reviews the different criteria used in the field of wind energy to compare the goodness-of-fit of candidate probability density functions (pdfs) to wind speed records, and discusses their advantages and disadvantages. The moment ratio and L-moment ratio diagram methods are also proposed as alternative methods for the choice of the pdfs. These two methods have the advantage of allowing an easy comparison of the fit of several pdfs for several time series (stations) on a single diagram. Plotting the position of a given wind speed data set in these diagrams is instantaneous and provides more information than a goodness-of-fit criterion since it provides knowledge about such characteristics as the skewness and kurtosis of the station data set. In this paper, it is proposed to study the applicability of these two methods for the selection of pdfs for wind speed data. Both types of diagrams are used to assess the fit of the pdfs for wind speed series in the United Arab Emirates. The analysis of the moment ratio diagrams reveals that the Kappa, Log-Pearson type III and Generalized Gamma are the distributions that fit best all wind speed series. The Weibull represents the best distribution among those with only one shape parameter. Results obtained with the diagrams are compared with those obtained with goodness-of-fit statistics and a good agreement is observed especially in the case of the L-moment ratio diagram. It is concluded that these diagrams can represent a simple and efficient approach to be used as complementary method to goodness-of-fit criteria.

  4. Normal probability plots with confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chantarangsi, Wanpen; Liu, Wei; Bretz, Frank; Kiatsupaibul, Seksan; Hayter, Anthony J; Wan, Fang

    2015-01-01

    Normal probability plots are widely used as a statistical tool for assessing whether an observed simple random sample is drawn from a normally distributed population. The users, however, have to judge subjectively, if no objective rule is provided, whether the plotted points fall close to a straight line. In this paper, we focus on how a normal probability plot can be augmented by intervals for all the points so that, if the population distribution is normal, then all the points should fall into the corresponding intervals simultaneously with probability 1-α. These simultaneous 1-α probability intervals provide therefore an objective mean to judge whether the plotted points fall close to the straight line: the plotted points fall close to the straight line if and only if all the points fall into the corresponding intervals. The powers of several normal probability plot based (graphical) tests and the most popular nongraphical Anderson-Darling and Shapiro-Wilk tests are compared by simulation. Based on this comparison, recommendations are given in Section 3 on which graphical tests should be used in what circumstances. An example is provided to illustrate the methods. © 2014 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  5. Interpretations of probability

    CERN Document Server

    Khrennikov, Andrei

    2009-01-01

    This is the first fundamental book devoted to non-Kolmogorov probability models. It provides a mathematical theory of negative probabilities, with numerous applications to quantum physics, information theory, complexity, biology and psychology. The book also presents an interesting model of cognitive information reality with flows of information probabilities, describing the process of thinking, social, and psychological phenomena.

  6. Quasi-specular reflection of cold neutrons from nano-dispersed media at above-critical angles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cubitt, R.; Lychagin, E.V.; Muzychka, A.Yu.; Nekhaev, G.V.; Nesvizhevsky, V.V.; Pignol, G.; Protasov, K.V.; Strelkov, A.V.

    2010-01-01

    We have predicted and observed for the first time a new phenomenon of quasi-specular reflection of cold neutrons at small incidence angles from nano-dispersed media. this is due to multiple small-angle scattering of neutrons from nano-sized inhomogeneities in the scattering potential. The reflection angle as well as the half-width of angular distribution of diffusively reflected neutrons is approximately equal to the incidence angle. For the powder of diamond nanoparticles used, the reflection probability was equal to ∼30% within the detector angular size, which corresponds to 40-50% of total probability (albedo) of quasi-specular reflection. The tangential velocity component of incident neutrons was up to an order of magnitude larger than the critical velocity for pure diamond. We provide an example of potential application of the discovered phenomenon for increasing cold neutron fluxes available for experiments.

  7. Probability measures on metric spaces

    CERN Document Server

    Parthasarathy, K R

    2005-01-01

    In this book, the author gives a cohesive account of the theory of probability measures on complete metric spaces (which is viewed as an alternative approach to the general theory of stochastic processes). After a general description of the basics of topology on the set of measures, the author discusses regularity, tightness, and perfectness of measures, properties of sampling distributions, and metrizability and compactness theorems. Next, he describes arithmetic properties of probability measures on metric groups and locally compact abelian groups. Covered in detail are notions such as decom

  8. Nuclear data uncertainties: I, Basic concepts of probability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, D.L.

    1988-12-01

    Some basic concepts of probability theory are presented from a nuclear-data perspective, in order to provide a foundation for thorough understanding of the role of uncertainties in nuclear data research. Topics included in this report are: events, event spaces, calculus of events, randomness, random variables, random-variable distributions, intuitive and axiomatic probability, calculus of probability, conditional probability and independence, probability distributions, binomial and multinomial probability, Poisson and interval probability, normal probability, the relationships existing between these probability laws, and Bayes' theorem. This treatment emphasizes the practical application of basic mathematical concepts to nuclear data research, and it includes numerous simple examples. 34 refs

  9. Nuclear data uncertainties: I, Basic concepts of probability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, D.L.

    1988-12-01

    Some basic concepts of probability theory are presented from a nuclear-data perspective, in order to provide a foundation for thorough understanding of the role of uncertainties in nuclear data research. Topics included in this report are: events, event spaces, calculus of events, randomness, random variables, random-variable distributions, intuitive and axiomatic probability, calculus of probability, conditional probability and independence, probability distributions, binomial and multinomial probability, Poisson and interval probability, normal probability, the relationships existing between these probability laws, and Bayes' theorem. This treatment emphasizes the practical application of basic mathematical concepts to nuclear data research, and it includes numerous simple examples. 34 refs.

  10. PROBABLE CHARACTERISTICS ОF ELECTROMAGNETIC FIELD ENVIRONMENT AT EARTH SURFACE CAUSED BY RADIO-ELECTRONIC AIDS OPERATING OVER EARTH SURFACE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. I. Mordachev

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper provides results of modeling distribution of signal probability of radio-electronic aids located over the Earth surface at a specific height and determining an electromagnetic environment on its surface according to a power parameter and an input direction angle at an optionally selected observation point being on the earth surface.

  11. PROBABLE CHARACTERISTICS ОF ELECTROMAGNETIC FIELD ENVIRONMENT AT EARTH SURFACE CAUSED BY RADIO-ELECTRONIC AIDS OPERATING OVER EARTH SURFACE

    OpenAIRE

    V. I. Mordachev

    2009-01-01

    The paper provides results of modeling distribution of signal probability of radio-electronic aids located over the Earth surface at a specific height and determining an electromagnetic environment on its surface according to a power parameter and an input direction angle at an optionally selected observation point being on the earth surface.

  12. Probability theory a foundational course

    CERN Document Server

    Pakshirajan, R P

    2013-01-01

    This book shares the dictum of J. L. Doob in treating Probability Theory as a branch of Measure Theory and establishes this relation early. Probability measures in product spaces are introduced right at the start by way of laying the ground work to later claim the existence of stochastic processes with prescribed finite dimensional distributions. Other topics analysed in the book include supports of probability measures, zero-one laws in product measure spaces, Erdos-Kac invariance principle, functional central limit theorem and functional law of the iterated logarithm for independent variables, Skorohod embedding, and the use of analytic functions of a complex variable in the study of geometric ergodicity in Markov chains. This book is offered as a text book for students pursuing graduate programs in Mathematics and or Statistics. The book aims to help the teacher present the theory with ease, and to help the student sustain his interest and joy in learning the subject.

  13. Precipitação provável para a região de Madre de Deus, Alto Rio Grande: modelos de probabilidades e valores característicos Probable rainfall for Madre de Deus county, Alto Rio Grande region: distribution probability models and values characteristics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José Alves Junqueira Júnior

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available Nos dias atuais a irrigação é uma das principais técnicas a serviço da agricultura. Entretanto, a consideração da irrigação como única fonte de suprir a demanda de água para as plantas pode acarretar em sistemas superdimensionados, o que contribui para elevar seu custo de implantação. Uma das alternativas utilizadas na solução desse problema consiste em considerar a precipitação a um determinado nível de probabilidade, ou seja, a precipitação provável, o que possibilitaria fazer a irrigação complementar. Assim, objetivou-se com o presente trabalho, caracterizar a precipitação provável na região do município de Madre de Deus, MG, comparando quatro diferentes modelos de distribuição de freqüência (Gama, Normal, Log-normal 2 e 3 parâmetros. As lâminas diárias foram totalizadas em períodos de 10, 15 e 30 dias, sendo avaliadas com 13 diferentes níveis de probabilidades, para séries históricas de 57 anos de observação, compreendido entre 1942 e 1999. Foi aplicado o teste de Kolmogorov-Smirnov a fim de avaliar a adequabilidade das mesmas e verificar qual modelo é mais adequado para cada uma das séries históricas. Observou-se que os modelos de probabilidade adequaram-se melhor ao período chuvoso, sendo a distribuição Log-normal 3 parâmetros a mais adequada para as séries históricas de período mensal e a distribuição Gama para os períodos quinzenal e decendial.Nowadays, irrigation is one of the most important agricultural technique. Therefore, this technique can not be the only source to supply water for crops, because the irrigation system may be over designed, increasing installation costs. One of alternatives to solve this problem is to analyze the probability of rainfall, decreasing costs and easing the irrigation management. This study purposes to characterize probable rainfall for Madre de Deus Village, comparing four (4 probability distribution models (Gama, Normal, Log-normal at 2 and 3

  14. On Probability Distribution Over Possible Worlds

    Science.gov (United States)

    1988-03-08

    is a minimal non-zero element (Bell and Machover , [71). 3 3 First Order Languages When the move is made to first order languages certain problems...Chang and H. J. Keisler. Model Theory. North-Holland, Amster- dam, 1973. [7] John Bell and Mosh6 Machover . A Course in Mathematical Logic. El- sevier

  15. Real analysis and probability

    CERN Document Server

    Ash, Robert B; Lukacs, E

    1972-01-01

    Real Analysis and Probability provides the background in real analysis needed for the study of probability. Topics covered range from measure and integration theory to functional analysis and basic concepts of probability. The interplay between measure theory and topology is also discussed, along with conditional probability and expectation, the central limit theorem, and strong laws of large numbers with respect to martingale theory.Comprised of eight chapters, this volume begins with an overview of the basic concepts of the theory of measure and integration, followed by a presentation of var

  16. Stochastic Modeling of Climatic Probabilities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1979-11-01

    students who contributed in a major way to the success of the project are Sarah Autrey, Jeff Em erson, Karl Grammel , Tom licknor and Debbie Wa i te. A...sophisticati . n an d cost of weapons systems and the recognition that the environment di-grades or offers opportunities h ~s led to tile requirement for...First , make a h istogram of the data , an d then “smooth” the histogram to obtain a frequency distribution (probability density function). The

  17. Inference for the Bivariate and Multivariate Hidden Truncated Pareto(type II) and Pareto(type IV) Distribution and Some Measures of Divergence Related to Incompatibility of Probability Distribution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghosh, Indranil

    2011-01-01

    Consider a discrete bivariate random variable (X, Y) with possible values x[subscript 1], x[subscript 2],..., x[subscript I] for X and y[subscript 1], y[subscript 2],..., y[subscript J] for Y. Further suppose that the corresponding families of conditional distributions, for X given values of Y and of Y for given values of X are available. We…

  18. Proton Probability Distribution in the O···H···O Low-Barrier Hydrogen Bond: A Combined Solid-State NMR and Quantum Chemical Computational Study of Dibenzoylmethane and Curcumin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kong, Xianqi; Brinkmann, Andreas; Terskikh, Victor; Wasylishen, Roderick E; Bernard, Guy M; Duan, Zhuang; Wu, Qichao; Wu, Gang

    2016-11-17

    We report a combined solid-state ( 1 H, 2 H, 13 C, 17 O) NMR and plane-wave density functional theory (DFT) computational study of the O···H···O low-barrier hydrogen bonds (LBHBs) in two 1,3-diketone compounds: dibenzoylmethane (1) and curcumin (2). In the solid state, both 1 and 2 exist in the cis-keto-enol tautomeric form, each exhibiting an intramolecular LBHB with a short O···O distance (2.435 Å in 1 and 2.455 Å in 2). Whereas numerous experimental (structural and spectroscopic) and computational studies have been reported for the enol isomers of 1,3-diketones, a unified picture about the proton location within an LBHB is still lacking. This work reports for the first time the solid-state 17 O NMR data for the O···H···O LBHBs in 1,3-diketones. The central conclusion of this work is that detailed information about the probability density distribution of the proton (nuclear zero-point motion) across an LBHB can be obtained from a combination of solid-state NMR and plane-wave DFT computations (both NMR parameter calculations and ab initio molecular dynamics simulations). We propose that the precise proton probability distribution across an LBHB should provide a common basis on which different and sometimes seemingly contradicting experimental results obtained from complementary techniques, such as X-ray diffraction, neutron diffraction, and solid-state NMR, can be reconciled.

  19. Teachers' Understandings of Probability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yan; Thompson, Patrick

    2007-01-01

    Probability is an important idea with a remarkably wide range of applications. However, psychological and instructional studies conducted in the last two decades have consistently documented poor understanding of probability among different populations across different settings. The purpose of this study is to develop a theoretical framework for…

  20. Probability, Nondeterminism and Concurrency

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Varacca, Daniele

    Nondeterminism is modelled in domain theory by the notion of a powerdomain, while probability is modelled by that of the probabilistic powerdomain. Some problems arise when we want to combine them in order to model computation in which both nondeterminism and probability are present. In particula...

  1. Choice probability generating functions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fosgerau, Mogens; McFadden, Daniel; Bierlaire, Michel

    2013-01-01

    This paper considers discrete choice, with choice probabilities coming from maximization of preferences from a random utility field perturbed by additive location shifters (ARUM). Any ARUM can be characterized by a choice-probability generating function (CPGF) whose gradient gives the choice...

  2. Choice Probability Generating Functions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fosgerau, Mogens; McFadden, Daniel L; Bierlaire, Michel

    This paper considers discrete choice, with choice probabilities coming from maximization of preferences from a random utility field perturbed by additive location shifters (ARUM). Any ARUM can be characterized by a choice-probability generating function (CPGF) whose gradient gives the choice...

  3. Janus-faced probability

    CERN Document Server

    Rocchi, Paolo

    2014-01-01

    The problem of probability interpretation was long overlooked before exploding in the 20th century, when the frequentist and subjectivist schools formalized two conflicting conceptions of probability. Beyond the radical followers of the two schools, a circle of pluralist thinkers tends to reconcile the opposing concepts. The author uses two theorems in order to prove that the various interpretations of probability do not come into opposition and can be used in different contexts. The goal here is to clarify the multifold nature of probability by means of a purely mathematical approach and to show how philosophical arguments can only serve to deepen actual intellectual contrasts. The book can be considered as one of the most important contributions in the analysis of probability interpretation in the last 10-15 years.

  4. Probability of Failure in Random Vibration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Søren R.K.; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    1988-01-01

    Close approximations to the first-passage probability of failure in random vibration can be obtained by integral equation methods. A simple relation exists between the first-passage probability density function and the distribution function for the time interval spent below a barrier before out...

  5. Probability and Measure

    CERN Document Server

    Billingsley, Patrick

    2012-01-01

    Praise for the Third Edition "It is, as far as I'm concerned, among the best books in math ever written....if you are a mathematician and want to have the top reference in probability, this is it." (Amazon.com, January 2006) A complete and comprehensive classic in probability and measure theory Probability and Measure, Anniversary Edition by Patrick Billingsley celebrates the achievements and advancements that have made this book a classic in its field for the past 35 years. Now re-issued in a new style and format, but with the reliable content that the third edition was revered for, this

  6. Distribution of free gas and 3D mirror image structures beneath Sevastopol mud volcano, Black sea, from 3D high resolution wide-angle seismic data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krabbenhoeft, A.; Papenberg, C. A.; Klaeschen, D.; Bialas, J.

    2016-12-01

    The goal of this study is to image the sub-seafloor structure beneath the Sevastopol mud volcano (SMV), Sorokin Trough, SE of the Crimean peninsula, Black Sea. The focus lies on structures of/within the feeder channel, the distribution of gas and gas hydrates, and their relation to fluid migration zones in sediments. This study concentrates on a 3D high resolution seismic grid (7 km x 2.5 km) recorded with 13 ocean bottom stations (OBS). The 3D nature of the experiment results from the geometry of 68 densely spaced (25/50 m) profiles, as well as the cubical configuration of the densely spaced receivers on the seafloor ( 300 m station spacing). The seismic profiles are typically longer than 6 km which results in large offsets for the reflections of the OBS. This enables the study of the seismic velocities of the sub-seafloor sediments and additionally large offset incident analysis.The 3D Kirchhoff mirror image time migration, applied to all OBS sections including all shots from all profiles, leads to a spatial image of the sub-seafloor. Here, the migration was applied with the velocity distribution of 1.49 km/s in the water column, 1.5 km/s below the seafloor (bsf) increasing to 2 km/s for the deeper sediments at 2 s bsf. Acoustic blanking occurs beneath the south-easterly located OBS and is associated with the feeder channel of the mud volcano. There, gas from depth can vertically migrate to the seafloor and on its way to the surface horizontally distribute patchily within sediment layers. High amplitude reflections are not observed as continuous reflections, but in a patchy distribution. They are associated with accumulations of gas. Also structures exist within the feeder channel of the SMV.3D mirror imaging proves to be a good tool to seismically image structures compared with 2D streamer seismics, especially steep dipping reflectors and structures which are otherwise obscured by signal scattering, i.e structures associated with fluid migration paths.

  7. Probabilities in physics

    CERN Document Server

    Hartmann, Stephan

    2011-01-01

    Many results of modern physics--those of quantum mechanics, for instance--come in a probabilistic guise. But what do probabilistic statements in physics mean? Are probabilities matters of objective fact and part of the furniture of the world, as objectivists think? Or do they only express ignorance or belief, as Bayesians suggest? And how are probabilistic hypotheses justified and supported by empirical evidence? Finally, what does the probabilistic nature of physics imply for our understanding of the world? This volume is the first to provide a philosophical appraisal of probabilities in all of physics. Its main aim is to make sense of probabilistic statements as they occur in the various physical theories and models and to provide a plausible epistemology and metaphysics of probabilities. The essays collected here consider statistical physics, probabilistic modelling, and quantum mechanics, and critically assess the merits and disadvantages of objectivist and subjectivist views of probabilities in these fie...

  8. Probability in physics

    CERN Document Server

    Hemmo, Meir

    2012-01-01

    What is the role and meaning of probability in physical theory, in particular in two of the most successful theories of our age, quantum physics and statistical mechanics? Laws once conceived as universal and deterministic, such as Newton‘s laws of motion, or the second law of thermodynamics, are replaced in these theories by inherently probabilistic laws. This collection of essays by some of the world‘s foremost experts presents an in-depth analysis of the meaning of probability in contemporary physics. Among the questions addressed are: How are probabilities defined? Are they objective or subjective? What is their  explanatory value? What are the differences between quantum and classical probabilities? The result is an informative and thought-provoking book for the scientifically inquisitive. 

  9. Probability and Statistical Inference

    OpenAIRE

    Prosper, Harrison B.

    2006-01-01

    These lectures introduce key concepts in probability and statistical inference at a level suitable for graduate students in particle physics. Our goal is to paint as vivid a picture as possible of the concepts covered.

  10. Probability and Bayesian statistics

    CERN Document Server

    1987-01-01

    This book contains selected and refereed contributions to the "Inter­ national Symposium on Probability and Bayesian Statistics" which was orga­ nized to celebrate the 80th birthday of Professor Bruno de Finetti at his birthplace Innsbruck in Austria. Since Professor de Finetti died in 1985 the symposium was dedicated to the memory of Bruno de Finetti and took place at Igls near Innsbruck from 23 to 26 September 1986. Some of the pa­ pers are published especially by the relationship to Bruno de Finetti's scientific work. The evolution of stochastics shows growing importance of probability as coherent assessment of numerical values as degrees of believe in certain events. This is the basis for Bayesian inference in the sense of modern statistics. The contributions in this volume cover a broad spectrum ranging from foundations of probability across psychological aspects of formulating sub­ jective probability statements, abstract measure theoretical considerations, contributions to theoretical statistics an...

  11. Quantum computing and probability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferry, David K

    2009-11-25

    Over the past two decades, quantum computing has become a popular and promising approach to trying to solve computationally difficult problems. Missing in many descriptions of quantum computing is just how probability enters into the process. Here, we discuss some simple examples of how uncertainty and probability enter, and how this and the ideas of quantum computing challenge our interpretations of quantum mechanics. It is found that this uncertainty can lead to intrinsic decoherence, and this raises challenges for error correction.

  12. Quantum computing and probability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ferry, David K

    2009-01-01

    Over the past two decades, quantum computing has become a popular and promising approach to trying to solve computationally difficult problems. Missing in many descriptions of quantum computing is just how probability enters into the process. Here, we discuss some simple examples of how uncertainty and probability enter, and how this and the ideas of quantum computing challenge our interpretations of quantum mechanics. It is found that this uncertainty can lead to intrinsic decoherence, and this raises challenges for error correction. (viewpoint)

  13. Probability in High Dimension

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-06-30

    set of methods, many of which have their origin in probability in Banach spaces , that arise across a broad range of contemporary problems in di↵erent...salesman problem, . . . • Probability in Banach spaces : probabilistic limit theorems for Banach - valued random variables, empirical processes, local...theory of Banach spaces , geometric functional analysis, convex geometry. • Mixing times and other phenomena in high-dimensional Markov chains. At

  14. Probability in quantum mechanics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. G. Gilson

    1982-01-01

    Full Text Available By using a fluid theory which is an alternative to quantum theory but from which the latter can be deduced exactly, the long-standing problem of how quantum mechanics is related to stochastic processes is studied. It can be seen how the Schrödinger probability density has a relationship to time spent on small sections of an orbit, just as the probability density has in some classical contexts.

  15. Dynamic SEP event probability forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kahler, S. W.; Ling, A.

    2015-10-01

    The forecasting of solar energetic particle (SEP) event probabilities at Earth has been based primarily on the estimates of magnetic free energy in active regions and on the observations of peak fluxes and fluences of large (≥ M2) solar X-ray flares. These forecasts are typically issued for the next 24 h or with no definite expiration time, which can be deficient for time-critical operations when no SEP event appears following a large X-ray flare. It is therefore important to decrease the event probability forecast with time as a SEP event fails to appear. We use the NOAA listing of major (≥10 pfu) SEP events from 1976 to 2014 to plot the delay times from X-ray peaks to SEP threshold onsets as a function of solar source longitude. An algorithm is derived to decrease the SEP event probabilities with time when no event is observed to reach the 10 pfu threshold. In addition, we use known SEP event size distributions to modify probability forecasts when SEP intensity increases occur below the 10 pfu event threshold. An algorithm to provide a dynamic SEP event forecast, Pd, for both situations of SEP intensities following a large flare is derived.

  16. Random phenomena fundamentals of probability and statistics for engineers

    CERN Document Server

    Ogunnaike, Babatunde A

    2009-01-01

    PreludeApproach PhilosophyFour Basic PrinciplesI FoundationsTwo Motivating ExamplesYield Improvement in a Chemical ProcessQuality Assurance in a Glass Sheet Manufacturing ProcessOutline of a Systematic ApproachRandom Phenomena, Variability, and UncertaintyTwo Extreme Idealizations of Natural PhenomenaRandom Mass PhenomenaIntroducing ProbabilityThe Probabilistic FrameworkII ProbabilityFundamentals of Probability TheoryBuilding BlocksOperationsProbabilityConditional ProbabilityIndependenceRandom Variables and DistributionsDistributionsMathematical ExpectationCharacterizing DistributionsSpecial Derived Probability FunctionsMultidimensional Random VariablesDistributions of Several Random VariablesDistributional Characteristics of Jointly Distributed Random VariablesRandom Variable TransformationsSingle Variable TransformationsBivariate TransformationsGeneral Multivariate TransformationsApplication Case Studies I: ProbabilityMendel and HeredityWorld War II Warship Tactical Response Under AttackIII DistributionsIde...

  17. Contact Angle Goniometer

    Data.gov (United States)

    Federal Laboratory Consortium — Description:The FTA32 goniometer provides video-based contact angle and surface tension measurement. Contact angles are measured by fitting a mathematical expression...

  18. SCATTTERING OF HIGH-ENERGY PARTICLES AT A COLLISIONLESS SHOCK FRONT: DEPENDENCE ON THE SHOCK ANGLE

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gedalin, M. [Department of Physics, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Beer-Sheva (Israel); Dröge, W.; Kartavykh, Y. Y., E-mail: gedalin@bgu.ac.il [Institute for Theoretical Physics and Astrophysics, University of Würzburg, Würzburg (Germany)

    2015-07-10

    Many shock acceleration theories deal with gyrophase-averaged particle distributions that depend only on the energy and pitch angle of the particles. Diffusive shock acceleration includes shock crossing as a necessary component. As long as the shock width is much smaller than the mean free path of a particle, the crossing is governed by the macroscopic fields inside the transition layer. The dynamics of high-energy particles in these fields is non-adiabatic and gyrophase dependent. The magnetic moment is not conserved in a wide range of shock angles, nor is the condition of reflection determined by the magnetic bottle relation. Instead, for a pitch angle and unknown gyrophase of an incident particle there is a finite probability of reflection. This probability varies between zero and unity in a wide range of pitch angles. In this work we investigate how the matching conditions at the shock front could be modified with the gyrophase dependence taken into account, e.g., in the form of the scattering probabilities.

  19. SCATTTERING OF HIGH-ENERGY PARTICLES AT A COLLISIONLESS SHOCK FRONT: DEPENDENCE ON THE SHOCK ANGLE

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gedalin, M.; Dröge, W.; Kartavykh, Y. Y.

    2015-01-01

    Many shock acceleration theories deal with gyrophase-averaged particle distributions that depend only on the energy and pitch angle of the particles. Diffusive shock acceleration includes shock crossing as a necessary component. As long as the shock width is much smaller than the mean free path of a particle, the crossing is governed by the macroscopic fields inside the transition layer. The dynamics of high-energy particles in these fields is non-adiabatic and gyrophase dependent. The magnetic moment is not conserved in a wide range of shock angles, nor is the condition of reflection determined by the magnetic bottle relation. Instead, for a pitch angle and unknown gyrophase of an incident particle there is a finite probability of reflection. This probability varies between zero and unity in a wide range of pitch angles. In this work we investigate how the matching conditions at the shock front could be modified with the gyrophase dependence taken into account, e.g., in the form of the scattering probabilities

  20. Analysis and probability

    CERN Document Server

    Spataru, Aurel

    2013-01-01

    Probability theory is a rapidly expanding field and is used in many areas of science and technology. Beginning from a basis of abstract analysis, this mathematics book develops the knowledge needed for advanced students to develop a complex understanding of probability. The first part of the book systematically presents concepts and results from analysis before embarking on the study of probability theory. The initial section will also be useful for those interested in topology, measure theory, real analysis and functional analysis. The second part of the book presents the concepts, methodology and fundamental results of probability theory. Exercises are included throughout the text, not just at the end, to teach each concept fully as it is explained, including presentations of interesting extensions of the theory. The complete and detailed nature of the book makes it ideal as a reference book or for self-study in probability and related fields. It covers a wide range of subjects including f-expansions, Fuk-N...

  1. The pleasures of probability

    CERN Document Server

    Isaac, Richard

    1995-01-01

    The ideas of probability are all around us. Lotteries, casino gambling, the al­ most non-stop polling which seems to mold public policy more and more­ these are a few of the areas where principles of probability impinge in a direct way on the lives and fortunes of the general public. At a more re­ moved level there is modern science which uses probability and its offshoots like statistics and the theory of random processes to build mathematical descriptions of the real world. In fact, twentieth-century physics, in embrac­ ing quantum mechanics, has a world view that is at its core probabilistic in nature, contrary to the deterministic one of classical physics. In addition to all this muscular evidence of the importance of probability ideas it should also be said that probability can be lots of fun. It is a subject where you can start thinking about amusing, interesting, and often difficult problems with very little mathematical background. In this book, I wanted to introduce a reader with at least a fairl...

  2. Effect of EMIC Wave Normal Angle Distribution on Relativistic Electron Scattering Based on the Newly Developed Self-consistent RC/EMIC Waves Model by Khazanov et al. [2006

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khazanov, G. V.; Gallagher, D. L.; Gamayunov, K.

    2007-01-01

    It is well known that the effects of EMIC waves on RC ion and RB electron dynamics strongly depend on such particle/wave characteristics as the phase-space distribution function, frequency, wave-normal angle, wave energy, and the form of wave spectral energy density. Therefore, realistic characteristics of EMIC waves should be properly determined by modeling the RC-EMIC waves evolution self-consistently. Such a selfconsistent model progressively has been developing by Khaznnov et al. [2002-2006]. It solves a system of two coupled kinetic equations: one equation describes the RC ion dynamics and another equation describes the energy density evolution of EMIC waves. Using this model, we present the effectiveness of relativistic electron scattering and compare our results with previous work in this area of research.

  3. Classic Problems of Probability

    CERN Document Server

    Gorroochurn, Prakash

    2012-01-01

    "A great book, one that I will certainly add to my personal library."—Paul J. Nahin, Professor Emeritus of Electrical Engineering, University of New Hampshire Classic Problems of Probability presents a lively account of the most intriguing aspects of statistics. The book features a large collection of more than thirty classic probability problems which have been carefully selected for their interesting history, the way they have shaped the field, and their counterintuitive nature. From Cardano's 1564 Games of Chance to Jacob Bernoulli's 1713 Golden Theorem to Parrondo's 1996 Perplexin

  4. Introduction to imprecise probabilities

    CERN Document Server

    Augustin, Thomas; de Cooman, Gert; Troffaes, Matthias C M

    2014-01-01

    In recent years, the theory has become widely accepted and has been further developed, but a detailed introduction is needed in order to make the material available and accessible to a wide audience. This will be the first book providing such an introduction, covering core theory and recent developments which can be applied to many application areas. All authors of individual chapters are leading researchers on the specific topics, assuring high quality and up-to-date contents. An Introduction to Imprecise Probabilities provides a comprehensive introduction to imprecise probabilities, includin

  5. Sensitivity analysis using probability bounding

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ferson, Scott; Troy Tucker, W.

    2006-01-01

    Probability bounds analysis (PBA) provides analysts a convenient means to characterize the neighborhood of possible results that would be obtained from plausible alternative inputs in probabilistic calculations. We show the relationship between PBA and the methods of interval analysis and probabilistic uncertainty analysis from which it is jointly derived, and indicate how the method can be used to assess the quality of probabilistic models such as those developed in Monte Carlo simulations for risk analyses. We also illustrate how a sensitivity analysis can be conducted within a PBA by pinching inputs to precise distributions or real values

  6. Probability, Statistics, and Stochastic Processes

    CERN Document Server

    Olofsson, Peter

    2012-01-01

    This book provides a unique and balanced approach to probability, statistics, and stochastic processes.   Readers gain a solid foundation in all three fields that serves as a stepping stone to more advanced investigations into each area.  The Second Edition features new coverage of analysis of variance (ANOVA), consistency and efficiency of estimators, asymptotic theory for maximum likelihood estimators, empirical distribution function and the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, general linear models, multiple comparisons, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), Brownian motion, martingales, and

  7. Multicritical phase diagrams of the ferromagnetic spin-3/2 Blume-Emery-Griffiths model with repulsive biquadratic coupling including metastable phases: The cluster variation method and the path probability method with the point distribution

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Keskin, Mustafa [Department of Physics, Erciyes University, 38039 Kayseri (Turkey)], E-mail: keskin@erciyes.edu.tr; Canko, Osman [Department of Physics, Erciyes University, 38039 Kayseri (Turkey)

    2008-01-15

    We study the thermal variations of the ferromagnetic spin-3/2 Blume-Emery-Griffiths (BEG) model with repulsive biquadratic coupling by using the lowest approximation of the cluster variation method (LACVM) in the absence and presence of the external magnetic field. We obtain metastable and unstable branches of the order parameters besides the stable branches and phase transitions of these branches are investigated extensively. The classification of the stable, metastable and unstable states is made by comparing the free energy values of these states. We also study the dynamics of the model by using the path probability method (PPM) with the point distribution in order to make sure that we find and define the metastable and unstable branches of the order parameters completely and correctly. We present the metastable phase diagrams in addition to the equilibrium phase diagrams in the (kT/J, K/J) and (kT/J, D/J) planes. It is found that the metastable phase diagrams always exist at the low temperatures, which are consistent with experimental and theoretical works.

  8. Multicritical phase diagrams of the ferromagnetic spin-3/2 Blume-Emery-Griffiths model with repulsive biquadratic coupling including metastable phases: The cluster variation method and the path probability method with the point distribution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Keskin, Mustafa; Canko, Osman

    2008-01-01

    We study the thermal variations of the ferromagnetic spin-3/2 Blume-Emery-Griffiths (BEG) model with repulsive biquadratic coupling by using the lowest approximation of the cluster variation method (LACVM) in the absence and presence of the external magnetic field. We obtain metastable and unstable branches of the order parameters besides the stable branches and phase transitions of these branches are investigated extensively. The classification of the stable, metastable and unstable states is made by comparing the free energy values of these states. We also study the dynamics of the model by using the path probability method (PPM) with the point distribution in order to make sure that we find and define the metastable and unstable branches of the order parameters completely and correctly. We present the metastable phase diagrams in addition to the equilibrium phase diagrams in the (kT/J, K/J) and (kT/J, D/J) planes. It is found that the metastable phase diagrams always exist at the low temperatures, which are consistent with experimental and theoretical works

  9. probably mostly white

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Willem Scholtz

    “quite probably, also the end of Angola's existence as an independent country”. It went on: “The victory at Cuito Cuanavale for the liberation forces and their Cuban compatriots was therefore decisive in consolidating Angola's independence and achieving that of Namibia.” Therefore, when reflecting on the events, “it is not ...

  10. What is Probability Theory?

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    IAS Admin

    He spends several months in India visiting schools, colleges and universities. He enjoys teaching mathematics and statistics at all levels. He loves Indian classical and folk music. This issue of Resonance features Joseph Leonard. Doob, who played a critical role in the devel- opment of probability theory in the world from.

  11. Collision Probability Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Peter Friis; Pedersen, Preben Terndrup

    1998-01-01

    It is the purpose of this report to apply a rational model for prediction of ship-ship collision probabilities as function of the ship and the crew characteristics and the navigational environment for MS Dextra sailing on a route between Cadiz and the Canary Islands.The most important ship and crew...

  12. The Theory of Probability

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Resonance – Journal of Science Education; Volume 3; Issue 4. The Theory of Probability. Andrei Nikolaevich Kolmogorov. Classics Volume 3 Issue 4 April 1998 pp 103-112. Fulltext. Click here to view fulltext PDF. Permanent link: http://www.ias.ac.in/article/fulltext/reso/003/04/0103-0112. Author Affiliations.

  13. Probability Theory Without Tears!

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Resonance – Journal of Science Education; Volume 1; Issue 2. Probability Theory Without Tears! S Ramasubramanian. Book Review Volume 1 Issue 2 February 1996 pp 115-116. Fulltext. Click here to view fulltext PDF. Permanent link: http://www.ias.ac.in/article/fulltext/reso/001/02/0115-0116 ...

  14. Counterexamples in probability

    CERN Document Server

    Stoyanov, Jordan M

    2013-01-01

    While most mathematical examples illustrate the truth of a statement, counterexamples demonstrate a statement's falsity. Enjoyable topics of study, counterexamples are valuable tools for teaching and learning. The definitive book on the subject in regards to probability, this third edition features the author's revisions and corrections plus a substantial new appendix.

  15. Estimating Subjective Probabilities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Steffen; Fountain, John; Harrison, Glenn W.

    2014-01-01

    that theory calls for. We illustrate this approach using data from a controlled experiment with real monetary consequences to the subjects. This allows the observer to make inferences about the latent subjective probability, under virtually any well-specified model of choice under subjective risk, while still...

  16. Estimating Subjective Probabilities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Steffen; Fountain, John; Harrison, Glenn W.

    that theory calls for. We illustrate this approach using data from a controlled experiment with real monetary consequences to the subjects. This allows the observer to make inferences about the latent subjective probability, under virtually any well-specified model of choice under subjective risk, while still...

  17. the theory of probability

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    OF PROBABILITY *. The simplest laws of natural science are those that state the conditions under which some event of interest to us will either certainly occur or certainly not occur; i.e., these conditions may be expressed in one of the following two forms: 1. If a complex (i.e., a set or collection) of conditions S is realized, then.

  18. Negative probability in the framework of combined probability

    OpenAIRE

    Burgin, Mark

    2013-01-01

    Negative probability has found diverse applications in theoretical physics. Thus, construction of sound and rigorous mathematical foundations for negative probability is important for physics. There are different axiomatizations of conventional probability. So, it is natural that negative probability also has different axiomatic frameworks. In the previous publications (Burgin, 2009; 2010), negative probability was mathematically formalized and rigorously interpreted in the context of extende...

  19. Probability theory and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Hsu, Elton P

    1999-01-01

    This volume, with contributions by leading experts in the field, is a collection of lecture notes of the six minicourses given at the IAS/Park City Summer Mathematics Institute. It introduces advanced graduates and researchers in probability theory to several of the currently active research areas in the field. Each course is self-contained with references and contains basic materials and recent results. Topics include interacting particle systems, percolation theory, analysis on path and loop spaces, and mathematical finance. The volume gives a balanced overview of the current status of probability theory. An extensive bibliography for further study and research is included. This unique collection presents several important areas of current research and a valuable survey reflecting the diversity of the field.

  20. Paradoxes in probability theory

    CERN Document Server

    Eckhardt, William

    2013-01-01

    Paradoxes provide a vehicle for exposing misinterpretations and misapplications of accepted principles. This book discusses seven paradoxes surrounding probability theory.  Some remain the focus of controversy; others have allegedly been solved, however the accepted solutions are demonstrably incorrect. Each paradox is shown to rest on one or more fallacies.  Instead of the esoteric, idiosyncratic, and untested methods that have been brought to bear on these problems, the book invokes uncontroversial probability principles, acceptable both to frequentists and subjectivists. The philosophical disputation inspired by these paradoxes is shown to be misguided and unnecessary; for instance, startling claims concerning human destiny and the nature of reality are directly related to fallacious reasoning in a betting paradox, and a problem analyzed in philosophy journals is resolved by means of a computer program.

  1. Waste Package Misload Probability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Knudsen, J.K.

    2001-01-01

    The objective of this calculation is to calculate the probability of occurrence for fuel assembly (FA) misloads (i.e., Fa placed in the wrong location) and FA damage during FA movements. The scope of this calculation is provided by the information obtained from the Framatome ANP 2001a report. The first step in this calculation is to categorize each fuel-handling events that occurred at nuclear power plants. The different categories are based on FAs being damaged or misloaded. The next step is to determine the total number of FAs involved in the event. Using the information, a probability of occurrence will be calculated for FA misload and FA damage events. This calculation is an expansion of preliminary work performed by Framatome ANP 2001a

  2. Measurement uncertainty and probability

    CERN Document Server

    Willink, Robin

    2013-01-01

    A measurement result is incomplete without a statement of its 'uncertainty' or 'margin of error'. But what does this statement actually tell us? By examining the practical meaning of probability, this book discusses what is meant by a '95 percent interval of measurement uncertainty', and how such an interval can be calculated. The book argues that the concept of an unknown 'target value' is essential if probability is to be used as a tool for evaluating measurement uncertainty. It uses statistical concepts, such as a conditional confidence interval, to present 'extended' classical methods for evaluating measurement uncertainty. The use of the Monte Carlo principle for the simulation of experiments is described. Useful for researchers and graduate students, the book also discusses other philosophies relating to the evaluation of measurement uncertainty. It employs clear notation and language to avoid the confusion that exists in this controversial field of science.

  3. The HBN Angle

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Harsh Bhagvatiprasad Dave

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Aim: The purpose of this study was to establish a new cephalometric measurement, named the Harsh Bhagvatiprasad Nita angle (HBN, to assess the sagittal jaw relationship with accuracy and reproducibility. Materials and Methods: Three hundred pretreatment lateral cephalograms (100 each of Class I, II, and III were taken from the Department of Orthodontics and Dentofacial Orthopedics of Rajasthan Dental College and Hospital, Jaipur (Rajasthan and were subdivided into skeletal Class I, II, and III based on ANB, Wits appraisal, and Beta angle. This angle uses 3 skeletal landmarks the "C" (apparent axis of the condyle, "M" (midpoint of the premaxilla, and "G" (center of the largest circle that is tangent to the internal inferior, anterior, and posterior surfaces of the mandibular symphysis. Results: The result of the mean and standard deviation for the HBN angle were calculated in all three skeletal groups. After using one-way analysis of variance and post-hoc multiple comparisons by using Tukey′s honestly significant difference, homogeneous subsets, receiver operating characteristics (ROC curve - to differentiate Class II with Class I, ROC curve - to differentiate Class III with Class I, Reliability analysis with interclass correlation of HBN angle with other angles, we obtained results that showed that a patient with a HBN angle 40° and 46° can be considered to have a Class I skeletal pattern. Conclusions: A new angle, the HBN angle, was developed as a diagnostic aid to evaluate the sagittal jaw relationship more consistently. HBN angle 40° and 46° can be considered to have a Class I skeletal pattern, a more acute HBN angle indicates a Class II skeletal pattern, and a more obtuse HBN angle indicates a Class III skeletal pattern.

  4. Normal probability plots for evaluation of seeds distribution mechanisms in seedersGráficos de probabilidade normal para avaliação de mecanismos de distribuição de sementes em semeadoras

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos Alberto Viliotti

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Currently great emphasis is given for seed metering that assist rigorous demands in relation to longitudinal distribution of seeds, as well as to the index of fails in spacing laws, breaks and double seeds. The evaluation of these variable demands much time and work of attainment of data and processing. The objective of this work went propose to use of graphs of normal probability, facilitating the treatment of the data and decreasing the time of processing. The evaluation methodology consists in the counting of broken seeds, fail spacing and double seeds through the measure of the spacing among seeds, preliminary experiments through combinations of treatments had been carried through whose factors of variation were the level of the reservoir of seeds, the leveling of the seed metering, the speed of displacement and dosage of seeds. The evaluation was carried through in two parts, first through preliminary experiments for elaboration of the graphs of normal probability and later in experiments with bigger sampling for evaluation of the influence of the factors most important. It was done the evaluation of seed metering of rotating internal ring, and the amount of necessary data for the evaluation was very decreased through of the graphs of normal probability that facilitated to prioritize only the significant factors. The dosage of seeds was factor that more important because factor (D have greater significance.Atualmente grande ênfase é dada para mecanismos dosadores de sementes, que devem atender exigências cada vez maiores em relação à qualidade de distribuição longitudinal, principalmente em relação ao índice de falhas, quebras e duplas. A avaliação destas variáveis demanda muito tempo e trabalho, tanto para obtenção de dados como para processamento. O objetivo deste trabalho foi propor a utilização de gráficos de probabilidade normal para facilitar o tratamento dos dados relativos aos fatores que possivelmente influem na

  5. Measurement uncertainty and probability

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Willink, Robin

    2013-01-01

    ... and probability models 3.4 Inference and confidence 3.5 Two central limit theorems 3.6 The Monte Carlo method and process simulation 4 The randomization of systematic errors page xi xii 3 3 5 7 10 12 16 19 21 21 23 28 30 32 33 39 43 45 52 53 56 viiviii 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5 Contents The Working Group of 1980 From classical repetition to practica...

  6. Model uncertainty and probability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parry, G.W.

    1994-01-01

    This paper discusses the issue of model uncertainty. The use of probability as a measure of an analyst's uncertainty as well as a means of describing random processes has caused some confusion, even though the two uses are representing different types of uncertainty with respect to modeling a system. The importance of maintaining the distinction between the two types is illustrated with a simple example

  7. Retrocausality and conditional probability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stuart, C.I.J.M.

    1989-01-01

    Costa de Beauregard has proposed that physical causality be identified with conditional probability. The proposal is shown to be vulnerable on two accounts. The first, though mathematically trivial, seems to be decisive so far as the current formulation of the proposal is concerned. The second lies in a physical inconsistency which seems to have its source in a Copenhagenlike disavowal of realism in quantum mechanics. 6 refs. (Author)

  8. Probability via expectation

    CERN Document Server

    Whittle, Peter

    1992-01-01

    This book is a complete revision of the earlier work Probability which ap­ peared in 1970. While revised so radically and incorporating so much new material as to amount to a new text, it preserves both the aim and the approach of the original. That aim was stated as the provision of a 'first text in probability, de­ manding a reasonable but not extensive knowledge of mathematics, and taking the reader to what one might describe as a good intermediate level'. In doing so it attempted to break away from stereotyped applications, and consider applications of a more novel and significant character. The particular novelty of the approach was that expectation was taken as the prime concept, and the concept of expectation axiomatized rather than that of a probability measure. In the preface to the original text of 1970 (reproduced below, together with that to the Russian edition of 1982) I listed what I saw as the advantages of the approach in as unlaboured a fashion as I could. I also took the view that the text...

  9. On the Matsumoto-Yor property in free probability

    OpenAIRE

    Szpojankowski, Kamil

    2015-01-01

    We study the Matsumoto-Yor property in free probability. We prove that the limiting empirical eigenvalue distribution of the GIG matrices and the Marchenko-Pastur distribution have the free Matsumoto-Yor property. Finally we characterize these distributions by a regression properties in free probability.

  10. Tumour control probability derived from dose distribution in homogeneous and heterogeneous models: assuming similar pharmacokinetics, 125Sn–177Lu is superior to 90Y–177Lu in peptide receptor radiotherapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Walrand, Stephan; Hanin, François-Xavier; Pauwels, Stanislas; Jamar, François

    2012-01-01

    Clinical trials on 177 Lu– 90 Y therapy used empirical activity ratios. Radionuclides (RN) with larger beta maximal range could favourably replace 90 Y. Our aim is to provide RN dose-deposition kernels and to compare the tumour control probability (TCP) of RN combinations. Dose kernels were derived by integration of the mono-energetic beta-ray dose distributions (computed using Monte Carlo) weighted by their respective beta spectrum. Nine homogeneous spherical tumours (1–25 mm in diameter) and four spherical tumours including a lattice of cold, but alive, spheres (1, 3, 5, 7 mm in diameter) were modelled. The TCP for 93 Y, 90 Y and 125 Sn in combination with 177 Lu in variable proportions (that kept constant the renal cortex biological effective dose) were derived by 3D dose kernel convolution. For a mean tumour-absorbed dose of 180 Gy, 2 mm homogeneous tumours and tumours including 3 mm diameter cold alive spheres were both well controlled (TCP > 0.9) using a 75–25% combination of 177 Lu and 90 Y activity. However, 125 Sn– 177 Lu achieved a significantly better result by controlling 1 mm-homogeneous tumour simultaneously with tumours including 5 mm diameter cold alive spheres. Clinical trials using RN combinations should use RN proportions tuned to the patient dosimetry. 125 Sn production and its coupling to somatostatin analogue appear feasible. Assuming similar pharmacokinetics 125 Sn is the best RN for combination with 177 Lu in peptide receptor radiotherapy justifying pharmacokinetics studies in rodent of 125 Sn-labelled somatostatin analogues. (paper)

  11. Imprecise Probability Methods for Weapons UQ

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Picard, Richard Roy [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Vander Wiel, Scott Alan [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2016-05-13

    Building on recent work in uncertainty quanti cation, we examine the use of imprecise probability methods to better characterize expert knowledge and to improve on misleading aspects of Bayesian analysis with informative prior distributions. Quantitative approaches to incorporate uncertainties in weapons certi cation are subject to rigorous external peer review, and in this regard, certain imprecise probability methods are well established in the literature and attractive. These methods are illustrated using experimental data from LANL detonator impact testing.

  12. Reading Angles in Maps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Izard, Véronique; O'Donnell, Evan; Spelke, Elizabeth S.

    2014-01-01

    Preschool children can navigate by simple geometric maps of the environment, but the nature of the geometric relations they use in map reading remains unclear. Here, children were tested specifically on their sensitivity to angle. Forty-eight children (age 47:15-53:30 months) were presented with fragments of geometric maps, in which angle sections…

  13. Probability mapping of contaminants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rautman, C.A.; Kaplan, P.G.; McGraw, M.A.; Istok, J.D.; Sigda, J.M.

    1994-01-01

    Exhaustive characterization of a contaminated site is a physical and practical impossibility. Descriptions of the nature, extent, and level of contamination, as well as decisions regarding proposed remediation activities, must be made in a state of uncertainty based upon limited physical sampling. The probability mapping approach illustrated in this paper appears to offer site operators a reasonable, quantitative methodology for many environmental remediation decisions and allows evaluation of the risk associated with those decisions. For example, output from this approach can be used in quantitative, cost-based decision models for evaluating possible site characterization and/or remediation plans, resulting in selection of the risk-adjusted, least-cost alternative. The methodology is completely general, and the techniques are applicable to a wide variety of environmental restoration projects. The probability-mapping approach is illustrated by application to a contaminated site at the former DOE Feed Materials Production Center near Fernald, Ohio. Soil geochemical data, collected as part of the Uranium-in-Soils Integrated Demonstration Project, have been used to construct a number of geostatistical simulations of potential contamination for parcels approximately the size of a selective remediation unit (the 3-m width of a bulldozer blade). Each such simulation accurately reflects the actual measured sample values, and reproduces the univariate statistics and spatial character of the extant data. Post-processing of a large number of these equally likely statistically similar images produces maps directly showing the probability of exceeding specified levels of contamination (potential clean-up or personnel-hazard thresholds)

  14. Comparing linear probability model coefficients across groups

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Holm, Anders; Ejrnæs, Mette; Karlson, Kristian Bernt

    2015-01-01

    This article offers a formal identification analysis of the problem in comparing coefficients from linear probability models between groups. We show that differences in coefficients from these models can result not only from genuine differences in effects, but also from differences in one or more...... of the following three components: outcome truncation, scale parameters and distributional shape of the predictor variable. These results point to limitations in using linear probability model coefficients for group comparisons. We also provide Monte Carlo simulations and real examples to illustrate...... these limitations, and we suggest a restricted approach to using linear probability model coefficients in group comparisons....

  15. Probability of causation approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jose, D.E.

    1988-01-01

    Probability of causation (PC) is sometimes viewed as a great improvement by those persons who are not happy with the present rulings of courts in radiation cases. The author does not share that hope and expects that PC will not play a significant role in these issues for at least the next decade. If it is ever adopted in a legislative compensation scheme, it will be used in a way that is unlikely to please most scientists. Consequently, PC is a false hope for radiation scientists, and its best contribution may well lie in some of the spin-off effects, such as an influence on medical practice

  16. Introduction to probability with statistical applications

    CERN Document Server

    Schay, Géza

    2016-01-01

    Now in its second edition, this textbook serves as an introduction to probability and statistics for non-mathematics majors who do not need the exhaustive detail and mathematical depth provided in more comprehensive treatments of the subject. The presentation covers the mathematical laws of random phenomena, including discrete and continuous random variables, expectation and variance, and common probability distributions such as the binomial, Poisson, and normal distributions. More classical examples such as Montmort's problem, the ballot problem, and Bertrand’s paradox are now included, along with applications such as the Maxwell-Boltzmann and Bose-Einstein distributions in physics. Key features in new edition: * 35 new exercises * Expanded section on the algebra of sets * Expanded chapters on probabilities to include more classical examples * New section on regression * Online instructors' manual containing solutions to all exercises

  17. Optimal reconstruction angles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cook, G.O. Jr.; Knight, L.

    1979-07-01

    The question of optimal projection angles has recently become of interest in the field of reconstruction from projections. Here, studies are concentrated on the n x n pixel space, where literative algorithms such as ART and direct matrix techniques due to Katz are considered. The best angles are determined in a Gauss--Markov statistical sense as well as with respect to a function-theoretical error bound. The possibility of making photon intensity a function of angle is also examined. Finally, the best angles to use in an ART-like algorithm are studied. A certain set of unequally spaced angles was found to be preferred in several contexts. 15 figures, 6 tables

  18. Evaluation of the normal calcaneal angles in Egyptian population

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Fahmy Anwar Shoukry

    2012-02-01

    Feb 1, 2012 ... ison of the angles according to the side), independent t-test was used to compare the angles according to the sex), distribution of the angles within different age groups was compared with one way analysis of variance (ANOVA) test. The level of sig- nificance was set at p < 0.05, and compared the results of.

  19. Probability densities and Lévy densities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barndorff-Nielsen, Ole Eiler

    For positive Lévy processes (i.e. subordinators) formulae are derived that express the probability density or the distribution function in terms of power series in time t. The applicability of the results to finance and to turbulence is briefly indicated.......For positive Lévy processes (i.e. subordinators) formulae are derived that express the probability density or the distribution function in terms of power series in time t. The applicability of the results to finance and to turbulence is briefly indicated....

  20. Path probabilities of continuous time random walks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eule, Stephan; Friedrich, Rudolf

    2014-01-01

    Employing the path integral formulation of a broad class of anomalous diffusion processes, we derive the exact relations for the path probability densities of these processes. In particular, we obtain a closed analytical solution for the path probability distribution of a Continuous Time Random Walk (CTRW) process. This solution is given in terms of its waiting time distribution and short time propagator of the corresponding random walk as a solution of a Dyson equation. Applying our analytical solution we derive generalized Feynman–Kac formulae. (paper)

  1. Path probabilities of continuous time random walks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eule, Stephan; Friedrich, Rudolf

    2014-12-01

    Employing the path integral formulation of a broad class of anomalous diffusion processes, we derive the exact relations for the path probability densities of these processes. In particular, we obtain a closed analytical solution for the path probability distribution of a Continuous Time Random Walk (CTRW) process. This solution is given in terms of its waiting time distribution and short time propagator of the corresponding random walk as a solution of a Dyson equation. Applying our analytical solution we derive generalized Feynman-Kac formulae.

  2. Assignment of protein backbone resonances using connectivity, torsion angles and 13Cα chemical shifts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morris, Laura C.; Valafar, Homayoun; Prestegard, James H.

    2004-01-01

    A program is presented which will return the most probable sequence location for a short connected set of residues in a protein given just 13 C α chemical shifts (δ( 13 C α )) and data restricting the φ and ψ backbone angles. Data taken from both the BioMagResBank and the Protein Data Bank were used to create a probability density function (PDF) using a multivariate normal distribution in δ( 13 C α ), φ, and ψ space for each amino acid residue. Extracting and combining probabilities for particular amino acid residues in a short proposed sequence yields a score indicative of the correctness of the proposed assignment. The program is illustrated using several proteins for which structure and 13 C α chemical shift data are available

  3. Measure, integral and probability

    CERN Document Server

    Capiński, Marek

    2004-01-01

    Measure, Integral and Probability is a gentle introduction that makes measure and integration theory accessible to the average third-year undergraduate student. The ideas are developed at an easy pace in a form that is suitable for self-study, with an emphasis on clear explanations and concrete examples rather than abstract theory. For this second edition, the text has been thoroughly revised and expanded. New features include: · a substantial new chapter, featuring a constructive proof of the Radon-Nikodym theorem, an analysis of the structure of Lebesgue-Stieltjes measures, the Hahn-Jordan decomposition, and a brief introduction to martingales · key aspects of financial modelling, including the Black-Scholes formula, discussed briefly from a measure-theoretical perspective to help the reader understand the underlying mathematical framework. In addition, further exercises and examples are provided to encourage the reader to become directly involved with the material.

  4. Photoelectric angle converter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Podzharenko, Volodymyr A.; Kulakov, Pavlo I.

    2001-06-01

    The photo-electric angle transmitter of rotation is offered, at which the output voltage is linear function of entering magnitude. In a transmitter the linear phototransducer is used on the basis of pair photo diode -- operating amplifier, which output voltage is linear function of the area of an illuminated photosensitive stratum, and modulator of a light stream of the special shape, which ensures a linear dependence of this area from an angle of rotation. The transmitter has good frequent properties and can be used for dynamic measurements of an angular velocity and angle of rotation, in systems of exact drives and systems of autocontrol.

  5. Angles in hyperbolic lattices

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Risager, Morten S.; Södergren, Carl Anders

    2017-01-01

    It is well known that the angles in a lattice acting on hyperbolic n -space become equidistributed. In this paper we determine a formula for the pair correlation density for angles in such hyperbolic lattices. Using this formula we determine, among other things, the asymptotic behavior of the den......It is well known that the angles in a lattice acting on hyperbolic n -space become equidistributed. In this paper we determine a formula for the pair correlation density for angles in such hyperbolic lattices. Using this formula we determine, among other things, the asymptotic behavior...... of the density function in both the small and large variable limits. This extends earlier results by Boca, Pasol, Popa and Zaharescu and Kelmer and Kontorovich in dimension 2 to general dimension n . Our proofs use the decay of matrix coefficients together with a number of careful estimates, and lead...

  6. Representing Uncertainty by Probability and Possibility

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Uncertain parameters in modeling are usually represented by probability distributions reflecting either the objective uncertainty of the parameters or the subjective belief held by the model builder. This approach is particularly suited for representing the statistical nature or variance...... of uncertain parameters. Monte Carlo simulation is readily used for practical calculations. However, an alternative approach is offered by possibility theory making use of possibility distributions such as intervals and fuzzy intervals. This approach is well suited to represent lack of knowledge or imprecision...

  7. Predicting binary choices from probability phrase meanings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wallsten, Thomas S; Jang, Yoonhee

    2008-08-01

    The issues of how individuals decide which of two events is more likely and of how they understand probability phrases both involve judging relative likelihoods. In this study, we investigated whether derived scales representing probability phrase meanings could be used within a choice model to predict independently observed binary choices. If they can, this simultaneously provides support for our model and suggests that the phrase meanings are measured meaningfully. The model assumes that, when deciding which of two events is more likely, judges take a single sample from memory regarding each event and respond accordingly. The model predicts choice probabilities by using the scaled meanings of individually selected probability phrases as proxies for confidence distributions associated with sampling from memory. Predictions are sustained for 34 of 41 participants but, nevertheless, are biased slightly low. Sequential sampling models improve the fit. The results have both theoretical and applied implications.

  8. Measurement of 240Pu Angular Momentum Dependent Fission Probabilities Using the (α ,α') Reaction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koglin, Johnathon; Burke, Jason; Fisher, Scott; Jovanovic, Igor

    2017-09-01

    The surrogate reaction method often lacks the theoretical framework and necessary experimental data to constrain models especially when rectifying differences between angular momentum state differences between the desired and surrogate reaction. In this work, dual arrays of silicon telescope particle identification detectors and photovoltaic (solar) cell fission fragment detectors have been used to measure the fission probability of the 240Pu(α ,α' f) reaction - a surrogate for the 239Pu(n , f) - and fission fragment angular distributions. Fission probability measurements were performed at a beam energy of 35.9(2) MeV at eleven scattering angles from 40° to 140°e in 10° intervals and at nuclear excitation energies up to 16 MeV. Fission fragment angular distributions were measured in six bins from 4.5 MeV to 8.0 MeV and fit to expected distributions dependent on the vibrational and rotational excitations at the saddle point. In this way, the contributions to the total fission probability from specific states of K angular momentum projection on the symmetry axis are extracted. A sizable data collection is presented to be considered when constraining microscopic cross section calculations.

  9. What is Probability Theory?

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    IAS Admin

    football ground and observe whether it falls down to the ground or not. Which one of these can be termed ...... i=1 δi(ω). 2i be the binary expan- sion of ω in base 2. Then, it can be shown that for each k < ∞, the functions δ1(ω), ··· ,δk(ω) are independent on this (Ω, F,P) with each δi having distribution. P{ω : δi(ω)=0} = 1. 2.

  10. Inferring Beliefs as Subjectively Imprecise Probabilities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Steffen; Fountain, John; Harrison, Glenn W.

    2012-01-01

    We propose a method for estimating subjective beliefs, viewed as a subjective probability distribution. The key insight is to characterize beliefs as a parameter to be estimated from observed choices in a well-defined experimental task and to estimate that parameter as a random coefficient. The e...

  11. Error probabilities in default Bayesian hypothesis testing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gu, Xin; Hoijtink, Herbert; Mulder, J,

    2016-01-01

    This paper investigates the classical type I and type II error probabilities of default Bayes factors for a Bayesian t test. Default Bayes factors quantify the relative evidence between the null hypothesis and the unrestricted alternative hypothesis without needing to specify prior distributions for

  12. p-adic probability interpretation of Bell's inequality

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khrennikov, A.

    1995-01-01

    We study the violation of Bell's inequality using a p-adic generalization of the theory of probability. p-adic probability is introduced as a limit of relative frequencies but this limit exists with respect to a p-adic metric. In particular, negative probability distributions are well defined on the basis of the frequency definition. This new type of stochastics can be used to describe hidden-variables distributions of some quantum models. If the hidden variables have a p-adic probability distribution, Bell's inequality is not valid and it is not necessary to discuss the experimental violations of this inequality. ((orig.))

  13. Exploring non-signalling polytopes with negative probability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oas, G.; Acacio de Barros, J.; Carvalhaes, C.

    2014-12-01

    Bipartite and tripartite EPR-Bell type systems are examined via joint quasi-probability distributions where probabilities are permitted to be negative. It is shown that such distributions exist only when the no-signalling condition is satisfied. A characteristic measure, the probability mass, is introduced and, via its minimization, limits the number of quasi-distributions describing a given marginal probability distribution. The minimized probability mass is shown to be an alternative way to characterize non-local systems. Non-signalling polytopes for two to eight settings in the bipartite scenario are examined and compared to prior work. Examining perfect cloning of non-local systems within the tripartite scenario suggests defining two categories of signalling. It is seen that many properties of non-local systems can be efficiently described by quasi-probability theory.

  14. On the Hitting Probability of Max-Stable Processes

    OpenAIRE

    Hofmann, Martin

    2012-01-01

    The probability that a max-stable process {\\eta} in C[0, 1] with identical marginal distribution function F hits x \\in R with 0 < F (x) < 1 is the hitting probability of x. We show that the hitting probability is always positive, unless the components of {\\eta} are completely dependent. Moreover, we consider the event that the paths of standard MSP hit some x \\in R twice and we give a sufficient condition for a positive probability of this event.

  15. Probabilistic Cloning of Three Real States with Optimal Success Probabilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rui, Pin-shu

    2017-06-01

    We investigate the probabilistic quantum cloning (PQC) of three real states with average probability distribution. To get the analytic forms of the optimal success probabilities we assume that the three states have only two pairwise inner products. Based on the optimal success probabilities, we derive the explicit form of 1 →2 PQC for cloning three real states. The unitary operation needed in the PQC process is worked out too. The optimal success probabilities are also generalized to the M→ N PQC case.

  16. Possible anisotropy of the angular distribution of charge-exchange fast neutrals wall

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gulin, M.A.; Zhdanov, S.K.; Kurnaev, V.A.

    Angular distribution of neutrals is analytically investigated for estimation of the effects accompanying the interaction of charge-exchange fast neutrals with the first wall of thermonuclear devices. The results of calculations of angular distributions of fast charge-exchange neutrals at the plasma boundary for different conditions characteristic of large tokamaks are presented. The applied model gives an isotropic angular distribution with a most probable angle of incidence differing from the normal one.

  17. 31P magic angle spinning NMR study of flux-grown rare-earth element orthophosphate (monazite/xenotime) solid solutions: evidence of random cation distribution from paramagnetically shifted NMR resonances.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palke, Aaron C; Stebbins, Jonathan F; Boatner, Lynn A

    2013-11-04

    We present (31)P magic angle spinning nuclear magnetic resonance spectra of flux-grown solid solutions of La(1-x)Ce(x)PO4 (x between 0.027 and 0.32) having the monoclinic monazite structure, and of Y(1-x)M(x)PO4 (M = V(n+), Ce(3+), Nd(3+), x between 0.001 and 0.014) having the tetragonal zircon structure. Paramagnetically shifted NMR resonances are observed in all samples due to the presence of paramagnetic V(n+), Ce(3+), and Nd(3+) in the diamagnetic LaPO4 or YPO4. As a first-order observation, the number and relative intensities of these peaks are related to the symmetry and structure of the diamagnetic host phase. The presence of paramagnetic shifts allows for increased resolution between NMR resonances for distinct atomic species which leads to the observation of low intensity peaks related to PO4 species having more than one paramagnetic neighbor two or four atomic bonds away. Through careful analysis of peak areas and comparison with predictions for simple models, it was determined that solid solutions in the systems examined here are characterized by complete disorder (random distribution) of diamagnetic La(3+) or Y(3+) with the paramagnetic substitutional species Ce(3+) and Nd(3+). The increased resolution given by the paramagnetic interactions also leads to the observation of splitting of specific resonances in the (31)P NMR spectra that may be caused by local, small-scale distortions from the substitution of ions having dissimilar ionic radii.

  18. Introduction to probability and statistics for science, engineering, and finance

    CERN Document Server

    Rosenkrantz, Walter A

    2008-01-01

    Data Analysis Orientation The Role and Scope of Statistics in Science and Engineering Types of Data: Examples from Engineering, Public Health, and Finance The Frequency Distribution of a Variable Defined on a Population Quantiles of a Distribution Measures of Location (Central Value) and Variability Covariance, Correlation, and Regression: Computing a Stock's Beta Mathematical Details and Derivations Large Data Sets Probability Theory Orientation Sample Space, Events, Axioms of Probability Theory Mathematical Models of Random Sampling Conditional Probability and Baye

  19. Probability of Boulders

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ditlevsen, Ove Dalager

    1997-01-01

    To collect background information for formulating a description of the expected soil properties along the tunnel line, in 1987 Storebælt initiated a statistical investigation of the occurrence and size of boulders in the Great Belt area. The data for the boulder size distribution were obtained...... by use of aerial photographing of cliff beaches with subsequent stereo metric measurement on the photographs. To get information about the density of occurrence, a series of continuous seismic scannings were also made along parallel lines in a corridor with the tunnel line as about the central line....... The data collection part of the investigation was made on the basis of geological expert advice (Gunnar Larsen, Århus) by the Danish Geotechnical Institute (DGI).The statistical data analysis combined with stochastic modeling based on geometry and sound wave diffraction theory gave a point estimate...

  20. On the dip angle of subducting plates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hsui, Albert T.; Tang, Xiao-Ming; Toksoz, M. Nafi

    1990-01-01

    A new approximate analytic model is developed for the thermal structure of a subducting plate with a finite length. This model provides the capability of easily examining the thermal and mechanical structure of a subducting plate with different lengths and at different angles. Also, the torque balance of a descending plate can be examined, and effects such as the leading edge effect, the adiabatic compression effect, and the phase change effect can be incorporated. A comparison with observed data indicates that short slabs are likely under torque equilibrium at present, while long slabs are probably dominated by their gravitational torques such that their dip angles are transient, moving toward a steeper dip angle similar to that of the Mariana slab.