Bayesian Prior Probability Distributions for Internal Dosimetry

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Miller, G.; Inkret, W.C.; Little, T.T.; Martz, H.F.; Schillaci, M.E

2001-07-01

The problem of choosing a prior distribution for the Bayesian interpretation of measurements (specifically internal dosimetry measurements) is considered using a theoretical analysis and by examining historical tritium and plutonium urine bioassay data from Los Alamos. Two models for the prior probability distribution are proposed: (1) the log-normal distribution, when there is some additional information to determine the scale of the true result, and (2) the 'alpha' distribution (a simplified variant of the gamma distribution) when there is not. These models have been incorporated into version 3 of the Bayesian internal dosimetric code in use at Los Alamos (downloadable from our web site). Plutonium internal dosimetry at Los Alamos is now being done using prior probability distribution parameters determined self-consistently from population averages of Los Alamos data. (author)

Some applications of the fractional Poisson probability distribution

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Laskin, Nick

2009-01-01

Physical and mathematical applications of the recently invented fractional Poisson probability distribution have been presented. As a physical application, a new family of quantum coherent states has been introduced and studied. As mathematical applications, we have developed the fractional generalization of Bell polynomials, Bell numbers, and Stirling numbers of the second kind. The appearance of fractional Bell polynomials is natural if one evaluates the diagonal matrix element of the evolution operator in the basis of newly introduced quantum coherent states. Fractional Stirling numbers of the second kind have been introduced and applied to evaluate the skewness and kurtosis of the fractional Poisson probability distribution function. A representation of the Bernoulli numbers in terms of fractional Stirling numbers of the second kind has been found. In the limit case when the fractional Poisson probability distribution becomes the Poisson probability distribution, all of the above listed developments and implementations turn into the well-known results of the quantum optics and the theory of combinatorial numbers.

Incorporating Skew into RMS Surface Roughness Probability Distribution

Science.gov (United States)

Stahl, Mark T.; Stahl, H. Philip.

2013-01-01

The standard treatment of RMS surface roughness data is the application of a Gaussian probability distribution. This handling of surface roughness ignores the skew present in the surface and overestimates the most probable RMS of the surface, the mode. Using experimental data we confirm the Gaussian distribution overestimates the mode and application of an asymmetric distribution provides a better fit. Implementing the proposed asymmetric distribution into the optical manufacturing process would reduce the polishing time required to meet surface roughness specifications.

Probability Distributome: A Web Computational Infrastructure for Exploring the Properties, Interrelations, and Applications of Probability Distributions.

Science.gov (United States)

Dinov, Ivo D; Siegrist, Kyle; Pearl, Dennis K; Kalinin, Alexandr; Christou, Nicolas

2016-06-01

Probability distributions are useful for modeling, simulation, analysis, and inference on varieties of natural processes and physical phenomena. There are uncountably many probability distributions. However, a few dozen families of distributions are commonly defined and are frequently used in practice for problem solving, experimental applications, and theoretical studies. In this paper, we present a new computational and graphical infrastructure, the Distributome , which facilitates the discovery, exploration and application of diverse spectra of probability distributions. The extensible Distributome infrastructure provides interfaces for (human and machine) traversal, search, and navigation of all common probability distributions. It also enables distribution modeling, applications, investigation of inter-distribution relations, as well as their analytical representations and computational utilization. The entire Distributome framework is designed and implemented as an open-source, community-built, and Internet-accessible infrastructure. It is portable, extensible and compatible with HTML5 and Web2.0 standards (http://Distributome.org). We demonstrate two types of applications of the probability Distributome resources: computational research and science education. The Distributome tools may be employed to address five complementary computational modeling applications (simulation, data-analysis and inference, model-fitting, examination of the analytical, mathematical and computational properties of specific probability distributions, and exploration of the inter-distributional relations). Many high school and college science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM) courses may be enriched by the use of modern pedagogical approaches and technology-enhanced methods. The Distributome resources provide enhancements for blended STEM education by improving student motivation, augmenting the classical curriculum with interactive webapps, and overhauling the

Cosmic ray zenith angle distribution at low geomagnetic latitude

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Aragon, G [Instituto de Astronomia y Fisica del Espacio, Buenos Aires, Argentina; Gagliardini, A; Ghielmetti, H S

1977-12-01

The intensity of secondary charged cosmic rays at different zenith angles was measured by narrow angle Geiger-Mueller telescopes up to an atmospheric depth of 2 g cm/sup -2/. The angular distribution observed at high altitudes is nearly flat at small angles around the vertical and suggests that the particle intensity peaks at large zenith angles, close to the horizon.

Proposal for Modified Damage Probability Distribution Functions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pedersen, Preben Terndrup; Hansen, Peter Friis

1996-01-01

Immidiately following the Estonia disaster, the Nordic countries establishe a project entitled "Safety of Passenger/RoRo Vessels" As part of this project the present proposal for modified damage stability probability distribution functions has been developed. and submitted to "Sub-committee on st......Immidiately following the Estonia disaster, the Nordic countries establishe a project entitled "Safety of Passenger/RoRo Vessels" As part of this project the present proposal for modified damage stability probability distribution functions has been developed. and submitted to "Sub...

Converting dose distributions into tumour control probability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nahum, A.E.

1996-01-01

The endpoints in radiotherapy that are truly of relevance are not dose distributions but the probability of local control, sometimes known as the Tumour Control Probability (TCP) and the Probability of Normal Tissue Complications (NTCP). A model for the estimation of TCP based on simple radiobiological considerations is described. It is shown that incorporation of inter-patient heterogeneity into the radiosensitivity parameter a through s a can result in a clinically realistic slope for the dose-response curve. The model is applied to inhomogeneous target dose distributions in order to demonstrate the relationship between dose uniformity and s a . The consequences of varying clonogenic density are also explored. Finally the model is applied to the target-volume DVHs for patients in a clinical trial of conformal pelvic radiotherapy; the effect of dose inhomogeneities on distributions of TCP are shown as well as the potential benefits of customizing the target dose according to normal-tissue DVHs. (author). 37 refs, 9 figs

Converting dose distributions into tumour control probability

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nahum, A E [The Royal Marsden Hospital, London (United Kingdom). Joint Dept. of Physics

1996-08-01

The endpoints in radiotherapy that are truly of relevance are not dose distributions but the probability of local control, sometimes known as the Tumour Control Probability (TCP) and the Probability of Normal Tissue Complications (NTCP). A model for the estimation of TCP based on simple radiobiological considerations is described. It is shown that incorporation of inter-patient heterogeneity into the radiosensitivity parameter a through s{sub a} can result in a clinically realistic slope for the dose-response curve. The model is applied to inhomogeneous target dose distributions in order to demonstrate the relationship between dose uniformity and s{sub a}. The consequences of varying clonogenic density are also explored. Finally the model is applied to the target-volume DVHs for patients in a clinical trial of conformal pelvic radiotherapy; the effect of dose inhomogeneities on distributions of TCP are shown as well as the potential benefits of customizing the target dose according to normal-tissue DVHs. (author). 37 refs, 9 figs.

STADIC: a computer code for combining probability distributions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cairns, J.J.; Fleming, K.N.

1977-03-01

The STADIC computer code uses a Monte Carlo simulation technique for combining probability distributions. The specific function for combination of the input distribution is defined by the user by introducing the appropriate FORTRAN statements to the appropriate subroutine. The code generates a Monte Carlo sampling from each of the input distributions and combines these according to the user-supplied function to provide, in essence, a random sampling of the combined distribution. When the desired number of samples is obtained, the output routine calculates the mean, standard deviation, and confidence limits for the resultant distribution. This method of combining probability distributions is particularly useful in cases where analytical approaches are either too difficult or undefined

Mathematical simulation of gamma-radiation angle distribution measurements

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Batij, V.G.; Batij, E.V.; Egorov, V.V.; Fedorchenko, D.V.; Kochnev, N.A.

2008-01-01

We developed mathematical model of the facility for gamma-radiation angle distribution measurement and calculated response functions for gamma-radiation intensities. We developed special software for experimental data processing, the 'Shelter' object radiation spectra unfolding and Sphere detector (ShD) angle resolution estimation. Neuronet method using for detection of the radiation directions is given. We developed software based on the neuronet algorithm, that allows obtaining reliable distribution of gamma-sources that make impact on the facility detectors at the measurement point. 10 refs.; 15 figs.; 4 tab

Evidence for Truncated Exponential Probability Distribution of Earthquake Slip

KAUST Repository

Thingbaijam, Kiran Kumar; Mai, Paul Martin

2016-01-01

Earthquake ruptures comprise spatially varying slip on the fault surface, where slip represents the displacement discontinuity between the two sides of the rupture plane. In this study, we analyze the probability distribution of coseismic slip, which provides important information to better understand earthquake source physics. Although the probability distribution of slip is crucial for generating realistic rupture scenarios for simulation-based seismic and tsunami-hazard analysis, the statistical properties of earthquake slip have received limited attention so far. Here, we use the online database of earthquake source models (SRCMOD) to show that the probability distribution of slip follows the truncated exponential law. This law agrees with rupture-specific physical constraints limiting the maximum possible slip on the fault, similar to physical constraints on maximum earthquake magnitudes.We show the parameters of the best-fitting truncated exponential distribution scale with average coseismic slip. This scaling property reflects the control of the underlying stress distribution and fault strength on the rupture dimensions, which determines the average slip. Thus, the scale-dependent behavior of slip heterogeneity is captured by the probability distribution of slip. We conclude that the truncated exponential law accurately quantifies coseismic slip distribution and therefore allows for more realistic modeling of rupture scenarios. © 2016, Seismological Society of America. All rights reserverd.

Evidence for Truncated Exponential Probability Distribution of Earthquake Slip

KAUST Repository

Thingbaijam, Kiran K. S.

2016-07-13

Earthquake ruptures comprise spatially varying slip on the fault surface, where slip represents the displacement discontinuity between the two sides of the rupture plane. In this study, we analyze the probability distribution of coseismic slip, which provides important information to better understand earthquake source physics. Although the probability distribution of slip is crucial for generating realistic rupture scenarios for simulation-based seismic and tsunami-hazard analysis, the statistical properties of earthquake slip have received limited attention so far. Here, we use the online database of earthquake source models (SRCMOD) to show that the probability distribution of slip follows the truncated exponential law. This law agrees with rupture-specific physical constraints limiting the maximum possible slip on the fault, similar to physical constraints on maximum earthquake magnitudes.We show the parameters of the best-fitting truncated exponential distribution scale with average coseismic slip. This scaling property reflects the control of the underlying stress distribution and fault strength on the rupture dimensions, which determines the average slip. Thus, the scale-dependent behavior of slip heterogeneity is captured by the probability distribution of slip. We conclude that the truncated exponential law accurately quantifies coseismic slip distribution and therefore allows for more realistic modeling of rupture scenarios. © 2016, Seismological Society of America. All rights reserverd.

APPROXIMATION OF PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS IN QUEUEING MODELS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

T. I. Aliev

2013-03-01

Full Text Available For probability distributions with variation coefficient, not equal to unity, mathematical dependences for approximating distributions on the basis of first two moments are derived by making use of multi exponential distributions. It is proposed to approximate distributions with coefficient of variation less than unity by using hypoexponential distribution, which makes it possible to generate random variables with coefficient of variation, taking any value in a range (0; 1, as opposed to Erlang distribution, having only discrete values of coefficient of variation.

Probability distributions with truncated, log and bivariate extensions

CERN Document Server

Thomopoulos, Nick T

2018-01-01

This volume presents a concise and practical overview of statistical methods and tables not readily available in other publications. It begins with a review of the commonly used continuous and discrete probability distributions. Several useful distributions that are not so common and less understood are described with examples and applications in full detail: discrete normal, left-partial, right-partial, left-truncated normal, right-truncated normal, lognormal, bivariate normal, and bivariate lognormal. Table values are provided with examples that enable researchers to easily apply the distributions to real applications and sample data. The left- and right-truncated normal distributions offer a wide variety of shapes in contrast to the symmetrically shaped normal distribution, and a newly developed spread ratio enables analysts to determine which of the three distributions best fits a particular set of sample data. The book will be highly useful to anyone who does statistical and probability analysis. This in...

Fitting the Probability Distribution Functions to Model Particulate Matter Concentrations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

El-Shanshoury, Gh.I.

2017-01-01

The main objective of this study is to identify the best probability distribution and the plotting position formula for modeling the concentrations of Total Suspended Particles (TSP) as well as the Particulate Matter with an aerodynamic diameter<10 μm (PM 10 ). The best distribution provides the estimated probabilities that exceed the threshold limit given by the Egyptian Air Quality Limit value (EAQLV) as well the number of exceedance days is estimated. The standard limits of the EAQLV for TSP and PM 10 concentrations are 24-h average of 230 μg/m 3 and 70 μg/m 3 , respectively. Five frequency distribution functions with seven formula of plotting positions (empirical cumulative distribution functions) are compared to fit the average of daily TSP and PM 10 concentrations in year 2014 for Ain Sokhna city. The Quantile-Quantile plot (Q-Q plot) is used as a method for assessing how closely a data set fits a particular distribution. A proper probability distribution that represents the TSP and PM 10 has been chosen based on the statistical performance indicator values. The results show that Hosking and Wallis plotting position combined with Frechet distribution gave the highest fit for TSP and PM 10 concentrations. Burr distribution with the same plotting position follows Frechet distribution. The exceedance probability and days over the EAQLV are predicted using Frechet distribution. In 2014, the exceedance probability and days for TSP concentrations are 0.052 and 19 days, respectively. Furthermore, the PM 10 concentration is found to exceed the threshold limit by 174 days

STEREO/LET Observations of Solar Energetic Particle Pitch Angle Distributions

Science.gov (United States)

Leske, Richard; Cummings, Alan; Cohen, Christina; Mewaldt, Richard; Labrador, Allan; Stone, Edward; Wiedenbeck, Mark; Christian, Eric; von Rosenvinge, Tycho

2015-04-01

As solar energetic particles (SEPs) travel through interplanetary space, the shape of their pitch angle distributions is determined by magnetic focusing and scattering. Measurements of SEP anisotropies therefore probe interplanetary conditions far from the observer and can provide insight into particle transport. Bidirectional flows of SEPs are often seen within interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs), resulting from injection of particles at both footpoints of the CME or from mirroring of a unidirectional beam. Mirroring is clearly implicated in those cases that show a loss cone distribution, in which particles with large pitch angles are reflected but the magnetic field enhancement at the mirror point is too weak to turn around particles with the smallest pitch angles. The width of the loss cone indicates the magnetic field strength at the mirror point far from the spacecraft, while if timing differences are detectable between outgoing and mirrored particles they may help constrain the location of the reflecting boundary.The Low Energy Telescopes (LETs) onboard both STEREO spacecraft measure energetic particle anisotropies for protons through iron at energies of about 2-12 MeV/nucleon. With these instruments we have observed loss cone distributions in several SEP events, as well as other interesting anisotropies, such as unusual oscillations in the widths of the pitch angle distributions on a timescale of several minutes during the 23 July 2012 SEP event and sunward-flowing particles when the spacecraft was magnetically connected to the back side of a distant shock well beyond 1 AU. We present the STEREO/LET anisotropy observations and discuss their implications for SEP transport. In particular, we find that the shapes of the pitch angle distributions generally vary with energy and particle species, possibly providing a signature of the rigidity dependence of the pitch angle diffusion coefficient.

Modeling highway travel time distribution with conditional probability models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Oliveira Neto, Francisco Moraes [ORNL; Chin, Shih-Miao [ORNL; Hwang, Ho-Ling [ORNL; Han, Lee [University of Tennessee, Knoxville (UTK)

2014-01-01

ABSTRACT Under the sponsorship of the Federal Highway Administration's Office of Freight Management and Operations, the American Transportation Research Institute (ATRI) has developed performance measures through the Freight Performance Measures (FPM) initiative. Under this program, travel speed information is derived from data collected using wireless based global positioning systems. These telemetric data systems are subscribed and used by trucking industry as an operations management tool. More than one telemetric operator submits their data dumps to ATRI on a regular basis. Each data transmission contains truck location, its travel time, and a clock time/date stamp. Data from the FPM program provides a unique opportunity for studying the upstream-downstream speed distributions at different locations, as well as different time of the day and day of the week. This research is focused on the stochastic nature of successive link travel speed data on the continental United States Interstates network. Specifically, a method to estimate route probability distributions of travel time is proposed. This method uses the concepts of convolution of probability distributions and bivariate, link-to-link, conditional probability to estimate the expected distributions for the route travel time. Major contribution of this study is the consideration of speed correlation between upstream and downstream contiguous Interstate segments through conditional probability. The established conditional probability distributions, between successive segments, can be used to provide travel time reliability measures. This study also suggests an adaptive method for calculating and updating route travel time distribution as new data or information is added. This methodology can be useful to estimate performance measures as required by the recent Moving Ahead for Progress in the 21st Century Act (MAP 21).

Calculating Cumulative Binomial-Distribution Probabilities

Science.gov (United States)

Scheuer, Ernest M.; Bowerman, Paul N.

1989-01-01

Cumulative-binomial computer program, CUMBIN, one of set of three programs, calculates cumulative binomial probability distributions for arbitrary inputs. CUMBIN, NEWTONP (NPO-17556), and CROSSER (NPO-17557), used independently of one another. Reliabilities and availabilities of k-out-of-n systems analyzed. Used by statisticians and users of statistical procedures, test planners, designers, and numerical analysts. Used for calculations of reliability and availability. Program written in C.

Modeling the probability distribution of peak discharge for infiltrating hillslopes

Science.gov (United States)

Baiamonte, Giorgio; Singh, Vijay P.

2017-07-01

Hillslope response plays a fundamental role in the prediction of peak discharge at the basin outlet. The peak discharge for the critical duration of rainfall and its probability distribution are needed for designing urban infrastructure facilities. This study derives the probability distribution, denoted as GABS model, by coupling three models: (1) the Green-Ampt model for computing infiltration, (2) the kinematic wave model for computing discharge hydrograph from the hillslope, and (3) the intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) model for computing design rainfall intensity. The Hortonian mechanism for runoff generation is employed for computing the surface runoff hydrograph. Since the antecedent soil moisture condition (ASMC) significantly affects the rate of infiltration, its effect on the probability distribution of peak discharge is investigated. Application to a watershed in Sicily, Italy, shows that with the increase of probability, the expected effect of ASMC to increase the maximum discharge diminishes. Only for low values of probability, the critical duration of rainfall is influenced by ASMC, whereas its effect on the peak discharge seems to be less for any probability. For a set of parameters, the derived probability distribution of peak discharge seems to be fitted by the gamma distribution well. Finally, an application to a small watershed, with the aim to test the possibility to arrange in advance the rational runoff coefficient tables to be used for the rational method, and a comparison between peak discharges obtained by the GABS model with those measured in an experimental flume for a loamy-sand soil were carried out.

Most probable degree distribution at fixed structural entropy

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

Here we derive the most probable degree distribution emerging ... the structural entropy of power-law networks is an increasing function of the expo- .... tition function Z of the network as the sum over all degree distributions, with given energy.

The probability distribution of side-chain conformations in [Leu] and [Met]enkephalin determines the potency and selectivity to mu and delta opiate receptors

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Bjørn Gilbert; Jensen, Morten Østergaard; Bohr, Henrik

2003-01-01

The structure of enkephalin, a small neuropeptide with five amino acids, has been simulated on computers using molecular dynamics. Such simulations exhibit a few stable conformations, which also have been identified experimentally. The simulations provide the possibility to perform cluster analysis...... in the space defined by potentially pharmacophoric measures such as dihedral angles, side-chain orientation, etc. By analyzing the statistics of the resulting clusters, the probability distribution of the side-chain conformations may be determined. These probabilities allow us to predict the selectivity...... of [Leu]enkephalin and [Met]enkephalin to the known mu- and delta-type opiate receptors to which they bind as agonists. Other plausible consequences of these probability distributions are discussed in relation to the way in which they may influence the dynamics of the synapse....

Geometry of q-Exponential Family of Probability Distributions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shun-ichi Amari

2011-06-01

Full Text Available The Gibbs distribution of statistical physics is an exponential family of probability distributions, which has a mathematical basis of duality in the form of the Legendre transformation. Recent studies of complex systems have found lots of distributions obeying the power law rather than the standard Gibbs type distributions. The Tsallis q-entropy is a typical example capturing such phenomena. We treat the q-Gibbs distribution or the q-exponential family by generalizing the exponential function to the q-family of power functions, which is useful for studying various complex or non-standard physical phenomena. We give a new mathematical structure to the q-exponential family different from those previously given. It has a dually flat geometrical structure derived from the Legendre transformation and the conformal geometry is useful for understanding it. The q-version of the maximum entropy theorem is naturally induced from the q-Pythagorean theorem. We also show that the maximizer of the q-escort distribution is a Bayesian MAP (Maximum A posteriori Probability estimator.

Comparative analysis through probability distributions of a data set

Science.gov (United States)

Cristea, Gabriel; Constantinescu, Dan Mihai

2018-02-01

In practice, probability distributions are applied in such diverse fields as risk analysis, reliability engineering, chemical engineering, hydrology, image processing, physics, market research, business and economic research, customer support, medicine, sociology, demography etc. This article highlights important aspects of fitting probability distributions to data and applying the analysis results to make informed decisions. There are a number of statistical methods available which can help us to select the best fitting model. Some of the graphs display both input data and fitted distributions at the same time, as probability density and cumulative distribution. The goodness of fit tests can be used to determine whether a certain distribution is a good fit. The main used idea is to measure the "distance" between the data and the tested distribution, and compare that distance to some threshold values. Calculating the goodness of fit statistics also enables us to order the fitted distributions accordingly to how good they fit to data. This particular feature is very helpful for comparing the fitted models. The paper presents a comparison of most commonly used goodness of fit tests as: Kolmogorov-Smirnov, Anderson-Darling, and Chi-Squared. A large set of data is analyzed and conclusions are drawn by visualizing the data, comparing multiple fitted distributions and selecting the best model. These graphs should be viewed as an addition to the goodness of fit tests.

Exploration of probability distribution of velocities of saltating sand particles based on the stochastic particle-bed collisions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zheng Xiaojing; Xie Li; Zhou Youhe

2005-01-01

The wind-blown sand saltating movement is mainly categorized into two mechanical processes, that is, the interaction between the moving sand particles and the wind in the saltation layer, and the collisions of incident particles with sand bed, and the latter produces a lift-off velocity of a sand particle moving into saltation. In this Letter a methodology of phenomenological analysis is presented to get probability density (distribution) function (pdf) of the lift-off velocity of sand particles from sand bed based on the stochastic particle-bed collision. After the sand particles are dealt with by uniform circular disks and a 2D collision between an incident particle and the granular bed is employed, we get the analytical formulas of lift-off velocity of ejected and rebound particles in saltation, which are functions of some random parameters such as angle and magnitude of incident velocity of the impacting particles, impact and contact angles between the collision particles, and creeping velocity of sand particles, etc. By introducing the probability density functions (pdf's) of these parameters in communion with all possible patterns of sand bed and all possible particle-bed collisions, and using the essential arithmetic of multi-dimension random variables' pdf, the pdf's of lift-off velocities are deduced out and expressed by the pdf's of the random parameters in the collisions. The numerical results of the distributions of lift-off velocities display that they agree well with experimental ones

Predicting the probability of slip in gait: methodology and distribution study.

Science.gov (United States)

Gragg, Jared; Yang, James

2016-01-01

The likelihood of a slip is related to the available and required friction for a certain activity, here gait. Classical slip and fall analysis presumed that a walking surface was safe if the difference between the mean available and required friction coefficients exceeded a certain threshold. Previous research was dedicated to reformulating the classical slip and fall theory to include the stochastic variation of the available and required friction when predicting the probability of slip in gait. However, when predicting the probability of a slip, previous researchers have either ignored the variation in the required friction or assumed the available and required friction to be normally distributed. Also, there are no published results that actually give the probability of slip for various combinations of required and available frictions. This study proposes a modification to the equation for predicting the probability of slip, reducing the previous equation from a double-integral to a more convenient single-integral form. Also, a simple numerical integration technique is provided to predict the probability of slip in gait: the trapezoidal method. The effect of the random variable distributions on the probability of slip is also studied. It is shown that both the required and available friction distributions cannot automatically be assumed as being normally distributed. The proposed methods allow for any combination of distributions for the available and required friction, and numerical results are compared to analytical solutions for an error analysis. The trapezoidal method is shown to be highly accurate and efficient. The probability of slip is also shown to be sensitive to the input distributions of the required and available friction. Lastly, a critical value for the probability of slip is proposed based on the number of steps taken by an average person in a single day.

Assigning probability distributions to input parameters of performance assessment models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mishra, Srikanta [INTERA Inc., Austin, TX (United States)

2002-02-01

This study presents an overview of various approaches for assigning probability distributions to input parameters and/or future states of performance assessment models. Specifically,three broad approaches are discussed for developing input distributions: (a) fitting continuous distributions to data, (b) subjective assessment of probabilities, and (c) Bayesian updating of prior knowledge based on new information. The report begins with a summary of the nature of data and distributions, followed by a discussion of several common theoretical parametric models for characterizing distributions. Next, various techniques are presented for fitting continuous distributions to data. These include probability plotting, method of moments, maximum likelihood estimation and nonlinear least squares analysis. The techniques are demonstrated using data from a recent performance assessment study for the Yucca Mountain project. Goodness of fit techniques are also discussed, followed by an overview of how distribution fitting is accomplished in commercial software packages. The issue of subjective assessment of probabilities is dealt with in terms of the maximum entropy distribution selection approach, as well as some common rules for codifying informal expert judgment. Formal expert elicitation protocols are discussed next, and are based primarily on the guidance provided by the US NRC. The Bayesian framework for updating prior distributions (beliefs) when new information becomes available is discussed. A simple numerical approach is presented for facilitating practical applications of the Bayes theorem. Finally, a systematic framework for assigning distributions is presented: (a) for the situation where enough data are available to define an empirical CDF or fit a parametric model to the data, and (b) to deal with the situation where only a limited amount of information is available.

Assigning probability distributions to input parameters of performance assessment models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mishra, Srikanta

2002-02-01

This study presents an overview of various approaches for assigning probability distributions to input parameters and/or future states of performance assessment models. Specifically,three broad approaches are discussed for developing input distributions: (a) fitting continuous distributions to data, (b) subjective assessment of probabilities, and (c) Bayesian updating of prior knowledge based on new information. The report begins with a summary of the nature of data and distributions, followed by a discussion of several common theoretical parametric models for characterizing distributions. Next, various techniques are presented for fitting continuous distributions to data. These include probability plotting, method of moments, maximum likelihood estimation and nonlinear least squares analysis. The techniques are demonstrated using data from a recent performance assessment study for the Yucca Mountain project. Goodness of fit techniques are also discussed, followed by an overview of how distribution fitting is accomplished in commercial software packages. The issue of subjective assessment of probabilities is dealt with in terms of the maximum entropy distribution selection approach, as well as some common rules for codifying informal expert judgment. Formal expert elicitation protocols are discussed next, and are based primarily on the guidance provided by the US NRC. The Bayesian framework for updating prior distributions (beliefs) when new information becomes available is discussed. A simple numerical approach is presented for facilitating practical applications of the Bayes theorem. Finally, a systematic framework for assigning distributions is presented: (a) for the situation where enough data are available to define an empirical CDF or fit a parametric model to the data, and (b) to deal with the situation where only a limited amount of information is available

Probability Distribution for Flowing Interval Spacing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kuzio, S.

2001-01-01

The purpose of this analysis is to develop a probability distribution for flowing interval spacing. A flowing interval is defined as a fractured zone that transmits flow in the Saturated Zone (SZ), as identified through borehole flow meter surveys (Figure 1). This analysis uses the term ''flowing interval spacing'' as opposed to fractured spacing, which is typically used in the literature. The term fracture spacing was not used in this analysis because the data used identify a zone (or a flowing interval) that contains fluid-conducting fractures but does not distinguish how many or which fractures comprise the flowing interval. The flowing interval spacing is measured between the midpoints of each flowing interval. Fracture spacing within the SZ is defined as the spacing between fractures, with no regard to which fractures are carrying flow. The Development Plan associated with this analysis is entitled, ''Probability Distribution for Flowing Interval Spacing'', (CRWMS M and O 2000a). The parameter from this analysis may be used in the TSPA SR/LA Saturated Zone Flow and Transport Work Direction and Planning Documents: (1) ''Abstraction of Matrix Diffusion for SZ Flow and Transport Analyses'' (CRWMS M and O 1999a) and (2) ''Incorporation of Heterogeneity in SZ Flow and Transport Analyses'', (CRWMS M and O 1999b). A limitation of this analysis is that the probability distribution of flowing interval spacing may underestimate the effect of incorporating matrix diffusion processes in the SZ transport model because of the possible overestimation of the flowing interval spacing. Larger flowing interval spacing results in a decrease in the matrix diffusion processes. This analysis may overestimate the flowing interval spacing because the number of fractures that contribute to a flowing interval cannot be determined from the data. Because each flowing interval probably has more than one fracture contributing to a flowing interval, the true flowing interval spacing could be

Research of working pulsation in closed angle based on rotating-sleeve distributing-flow system

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Yanjun; Zhang, Hongxin; Zhao, Qinghai; Jiang, Xiaotian; Cheng, Qianchang

2017-08-01

In order to reduce negative effects including hydraulic impact, noise and mechanical vibration, compression and expansion of piston pump in closed volume are used to optimize the angle between valve port and chamber. In addition, the mathematical model about pressurization and depressurization in pump chamber are analyzed based on distributing-flow characteristic, and it is necessary to use simulation software Fluent to simulate the distributing-flow fluid model so as to select the most suitable closed angle. As a result, when compression angle is 3°, the angle is closest to theoretical analysis and has the minimum influence on flow and pump pressure characteristic. Meanwhile, cavitation phenomenon appears in pump chamber in different closed angle on different degrees. Besides the flow pulsation is increasingly smaller with increasing expansion angle. Thus when expansion angle is 2°, the angle is more suitable for distributing-flow system.

Information-theoretic methods for estimating of complicated probability distributions

CERN Document Server

Zong, Zhi

2006-01-01

Mixing up various disciplines frequently produces something that are profound and far-reaching. Cybernetics is such an often-quoted example. Mix of information theory, statistics and computing technology proves to be very useful, which leads to the recent development of information-theory based methods for estimating complicated probability distributions. Estimating probability distribution of a random variable is the fundamental task for quite some fields besides statistics, such as reliability, probabilistic risk analysis (PSA), machine learning, pattern recognization, image processing, neur

A Probability Distribution over Latent Causes, in the Orbitofrontal Cortex.

Science.gov (United States)

Chan, Stephanie C Y; Niv, Yael; Norman, Kenneth A

2016-07-27

The orbitofrontal cortex (OFC) has been implicated in both the representation of "state," in studies of reinforcement learning and decision making, and also in the representation of "schemas," in studies of episodic memory. Both of these cognitive constructs require a similar inference about the underlying situation or "latent cause" that generates our observations at any given time. The statistically optimal solution to this inference problem is to use Bayes' rule to compute a posterior probability distribution over latent causes. To test whether such a posterior probability distribution is represented in the OFC, we tasked human participants with inferring a probability distribution over four possible latent causes, based on their observations. Using fMRI pattern similarity analyses, we found that BOLD activity in the OFC is best explained as representing the (log-transformed) posterior distribution over latent causes. Furthermore, this pattern explained OFC activity better than other task-relevant alternatives, such as the most probable latent cause, the most recent observation, or the uncertainty over latent causes. Our world is governed by hidden (latent) causes that we cannot observe, but which generate the observations we see. A range of high-level cognitive processes require inference of a probability distribution (or "belief distribution") over the possible latent causes that might be generating our current observations. This is true for reinforcement learning and decision making (where the latent cause comprises the true "state" of the task), and for episodic memory (where memories are believed to be organized by the inferred situation or "schema"). Using fMRI, we show that this belief distribution over latent causes is encoded in patterns of brain activity in the orbitofrontal cortex, an area that has been separately implicated in the representations of both states and schemas. Copyright © 2016 the authors 0270-6474/16/367817-12$15.00/0.

Probability distributions for Markov chain based quantum walks

Science.gov (United States)

Balu, Radhakrishnan; Liu, Chaobin; Venegas-Andraca, Salvador E.

2018-01-01

We analyze the probability distributions of the quantum walks induced from Markov chains by Szegedy (2004). The first part of this paper is devoted to the quantum walks induced from finite state Markov chains. It is shown that the probability distribution on the states of the underlying Markov chain is always convergent in the Cesaro sense. In particular, we deduce that the limiting distribution is uniform if the transition matrix is symmetric. In the case of a non-symmetric Markov chain, we exemplify that the limiting distribution of the quantum walk is not necessarily identical with the stationary distribution of the underlying irreducible Markov chain. The Szegedy scheme can be extended to infinite state Markov chains (random walks). In the second part, we formulate the quantum walk induced from a lazy random walk on the line. We then obtain the weak limit of the quantum walk. It is noted that the current quantum walk appears to spread faster than its counterpart-quantum walk on the line driven by the Grover coin discussed in literature. The paper closes with an outlook on possible future directions.

Angular Distributions of Sputtered Atoms from Semiconductor Targets at Grazing Ion Beam Incidence Angles

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sekowski, M.; Burenkov, A.; Martinez-Limia, A.; Hernandez-Mangas, J.; Ryssel, H.

2008-01-01

Angular distributions of ion sputtered germanium and silicon atoms are investigated within this work. Experiments are performed for the case of grazing ion incidence angles, where the resulting angular distributions are asymmetrical with respect to the polar angle of the sputtered atoms. The performed experiments are compared to Monte-Carlo simulations from different programs. We show here an improved model for the angular distribution, which has an additional dependence of the ion incidence angle.

Evaluation of burst probability for tubes by Weibull distributions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kao, S.

1975-10-01

The investigations of candidate distributions that best describe the burst pressure failure probability characteristics of nuclear power steam generator tubes has been continued. To date it has been found that the Weibull distribution provides an acceptable fit for the available data from both the statistical and physical viewpoints. The reasons for the acceptability of the Weibull distribution are stated together with the results of tests for the suitability of fit. In exploring the acceptability of the Weibull distribution for the fitting, a graphical method to be called the ''density-gram'' is employed instead of the usual histogram. With this method a more sensible graphical observation on the empirical density may be made for cases where the available data is very limited. Based on these methods estimates of failure pressure are made for the left-tail probabilities

Confidence intervals for the lognormal probability distribution

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Smith, D.L.; Naberejnev, D.G.

2004-01-01

The present communication addresses the topic of symmetric confidence intervals for the lognormal probability distribution. This distribution is frequently utilized to characterize inherently positive, continuous random variables that are selected to represent many physical quantities in applied nuclear science and technology. The basic formalism is outlined herein and a conjured numerical example is provided for illustration. It is demonstrated that when the uncertainty reflected in a lognormal probability distribution is large, the use of a confidence interval provides much more useful information about the variable used to represent a particular physical quantity than can be had by adhering to the notion that the mean value and standard deviation of the distribution ought to be interpreted as best value and corresponding error, respectively. Furthermore, it is shown that if the uncertainty is very large a disturbing anomaly can arise when one insists on interpreting the mean value and standard deviation as the best value and corresponding error, respectively. Reliance on using the mode and median as alternative parameters to represent the best available knowledge of a variable with large uncertainties is also shown to entail limitations. Finally, a realistic physical example involving the decay of radioactivity over a time period that spans many half-lives is presented and analyzed to further illustrate the concepts discussed in this communication

Simulation of Daily Weather Data Using Theoretical Probability Distributions.

Science.gov (United States)

Bruhn, J. A.; Fry, W. E.; Fick, G. W.

1980-09-01

A computer simulation model was constructed to supply daily weather data to a plant disease management model for potato late blight. In the weather model Monte Carlo techniques were employed to generate daily values of precipitation, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, minimum relative humidity and total solar radiation. Each weather variable is described by a known theoretical probability distribution but the values of the parameters describing each distribution are dependent on the occurrence of rainfall. Precipitation occurrence is described by a first-order Markov chain. The amount of rain, given that rain has occurred, is described by a gamma probability distribution. Maximum and minimum temperature are simulated with a trivariate normal probability distribution involving maximum temperature on the previous day, maximum temperature on the current day and minimum temperature on the current day. Parameter values for this distribution are dependent on the occurrence of rain on the previous day. Both minimum relative humidity and total solar radiation are assumed to be normally distributed. The values of the parameters describing the distribution of minimum relative humidity is dependent on rainfall occurrence on the previous day and current day. Parameter values for total solar radiation are dependent on the occurrence of rain on the current day. The assumptions made during model construction were found to be appropriate for actual weather data from Geneva, New York. The performance of the weather model was evaluated by comparing the cumulative frequency distributions of simulated weather data with the distributions of actual weather data from Geneva, New York and Fort Collins, Colorado. For each location, simulated weather data were similar to actual weather data in terms of mean response, variability and autocorrelation. The possible applications of this model when used with models of other components of the agro-ecosystem are discussed.

ESTIMATING LONG GRB JET OPENING ANGLES AND REST-FRAME ENERGETICS

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Goldstein, Adam [Space Science Office, VP62, NASA/Marshall Space Flight Center, Huntsville, AL 35812 (United States); Connaughton, Valerie [Science and Technology Institute, Universities Space Research Association, Huntsville, AL 35805 (United States); Briggs, Michael S.; Burns, Eric, E-mail: adam.m.goldstein@nasa.gov [Center for Space Plasma and Aeronomic Research, University of Alabama in Huntsville, 320 Sparkman Drive, Huntsville, AL 35899 (United States)

2016-02-10

We present a method to estimate the jet opening angles of long duration gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) using the prompt gamma-ray energetics and an inversion of the Ghirlanda relation, which is a correlation between the time-integrated peak energy of the GRB prompt spectrum and the collimation-corrected energy in gamma-rays. The derived jet opening angles using this method and detailed assumptions match well with the corresponding inferred jet opening angles obtained when a break in the afterglow is observed. Furthermore, using a model of the predicted long GRB redshift probability distribution observable by the Fermi Gamma-ray Burst Monitor (GBM), we estimate the probability distributions for the jet opening angle and rest-frame energetics for a large sample of GBM GRBs for which the redshifts have not been observed. Previous studies have only used a handful of GRBs to estimate these properties due to the paucity of observed afterglow jet breaks, spectroscopic redshifts, and comprehensive prompt gamma-ray observations, and we potentially expand the number of GRBs that can be used in this analysis by more than an order of magnitude. In this analysis, we also present an inferred distribution of jet breaks which indicates that a large fraction of jet breaks are not observable with current instrumentation and observing strategies. We present simple parameterizations for the jet angle, energetics, and jet break distributions so that they may be used in future studies.

A method for the generation of random multiple Coulomb scattering angles

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Campbell, J.R.

1995-06-01

A method for the random generation of spatial angles drawn from non-Gaussian multiple Coulomb scattering distributions is presented. The method employs direct numerical inversion of cumulative probability distributions computed from the universal non-Gaussian angular distributions of Marion and Zimmerman. (author). 12 refs., 3 figs

The Effect of Resection Angle on Stress Distribution after Root-End Surgery

Science.gov (United States)

Monteiro, Jaiane Bandoli; Dal Piva, Amanda Maria de Oliveira; Tribst, João Paulo Mendes; Borges, Alexandre Luiz Souto; Tango, Rubens Nisie

2018-01-01

Introduction: This study aimed to investigate the influence of the resection angle on the stress distribution of retrograde endodontic treated maxillary incisors under oblique-load application. Methods and Materials: A maxillary central incisor which was endodontically treated and restored with a fiber glass post was obtained in a 3-dimensional numerical model and distributed into three groups according to type of resection: control; restored with fiber post without retrograde obturation, R45 and R90 with 45º and 90º resection from tooth axial axis, respectively and restored with Fuji II LC (GC America). The numerical models received a 45º occlusal load of 200 N/cm2 on the middle of lingual surface. All materials and structures were considered linear elastic, homogeneous and isotropic. Numerical models were plotted and meshed with isoparametric elements, and the results were analyzed using maximum principal stress (MPS). Results: MPS showed greater stress values in the bone tissue for control group than the other groups. Groups with apicectomy showed acceptable stress distribution on the fiber post, cement layer and root dentin, presenting more improved values than control group. Conclusion: Apicectomy at 90º promotes more homogeneity on stress distribution on the fiber post, cement layer and root dentin, which suggests less probability of failure. However, due to its facility and stress distribution also being better than control group, apicectomy at 45° could be a good choice for clinicians. PMID:29707013

The distribution of tilt angles in newly born NSs: role of interior viscosity and magnetic field

Science.gov (United States)

Dall'Osso, Simone; Perna, Rosalba

2017-12-01

We study how the viscosity of neutron star (NS) matter affects the distribution of tilt angles (χ) between the spin and magnetic axes in young pulsars. Under the hypothesis that the NS shape is determined by the magnetically induced deformation, and that the toroidal component of the internal magnetic field exceeds the poloidal one, we show that the dissipation of precessional motions by bulk viscosity can naturally produce a bi-modal distribution of tilt angles, as observed in radio/γ-ray pulsars, with a low probability of achieving χ ˜ (20°-70°) if the interior B-field is ˜(1011-1015) G and the birth spin period is ˜10-300 ms. As a corollary of the model, the idea that the NS shape is solely determined by the poloidal magnetic field, or by the centrifugal deformation of the crust, is found to be inconsistent with the tilt angle distribution in young pulsars. When applied to the Crab pulsar, with χ ˜ 45°-70° and birth spin ≳20 ms, our model implies that: (I) the magnetically induced ellipticity is ɛB ≳ 3 × 10-6; and (II) the measured positive\\dot{χ } ˜ 3.6 × 10^{-12} rad s-1 requires an additional viscous process, acting on a time-scale ≲104 yr. We interpret the latter as crust-core coupling via mutual friction in the superfluid NS interior. One critical implication of our model is a gravitational wave signal at (twice) the spin frequency of the NS. For ɛB ˜ 10-6, this could be detectable by Advanced LIGO/Virgo operating at design sensitivity.

Multiobjective fuzzy stochastic linear programming problems with inexact probability distribution

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hamadameen, Abdulqader Othman [Optimization, Department of Mathematical Sciences, Faculty of Science, UTM (Malaysia); Zainuddin, Zaitul Marlizawati [Department of Mathematical Sciences, Faculty of Science, UTM (Malaysia)

2014-06-19

This study deals with multiobjective fuzzy stochastic linear programming problems with uncertainty probability distribution which are defined as fuzzy assertions by ambiguous experts. The problem formulation has been presented and the two solutions strategies are; the fuzzy transformation via ranking function and the stochastic transformation when α{sup –}. cut technique and linguistic hedges are used in the uncertainty probability distribution. The development of Sen’s method is employed to find a compromise solution, supported by illustrative numerical example.

Assessing protein conformational sampling methods based on bivariate lag-distributions of backbone angles

KAUST Repository

Maadooliat, Mehdi; Gao, Xin; Huang, Jianhua Z.

2012-01-01

Despite considerable progress in the past decades, protein structure prediction remains one of the major unsolved problems in computational biology. Angular-sampling-based methods have been extensively studied recently due to their ability to capture the continuous conformational space of protein structures. The literature has focused on using a variety of parametric models of the sequential dependencies between angle pairs along the protein chains. In this article, we present a thorough review of angular-sampling-based methods by assessing three main questions: What is the best distribution type to model the protein angles? What is a reasonable number of components in a mixture model that should be considered to accurately parameterize the joint distribution of the angles? and What is the order of the local sequence-structure dependency that should be considered by a prediction method? We assess the model fits for different methods using bivariate lag-distributions of the dihedral/planar angles. Moreover, the main information across the lags can be extracted using a technique called Lag singular value decomposition (LagSVD), which considers the joint distribution of the dihedral/planar angles over different lags using a nonparametric approach and monitors the behavior of the lag-distribution of the angles using singular value decomposition. As a result, we developed graphical tools and numerical measurements to compare and evaluate the performance of different model fits. Furthermore, we developed a web-tool (http://www.stat.tamu. edu/~madoliat/LagSVD) that can be used to produce informative animations. © The Author 2012. Published by Oxford University Press.

Assessing protein conformational sampling methods based on bivariate lag-distributions of backbone angles

KAUST Repository

Maadooliat, Mehdi

2012-08-27

Despite considerable progress in the past decades, protein structure prediction remains one of the major unsolved problems in computational biology. Angular-sampling-based methods have been extensively studied recently due to their ability to capture the continuous conformational space of protein structures. The literature has focused on using a variety of parametric models of the sequential dependencies between angle pairs along the protein chains. In this article, we present a thorough review of angular-sampling-based methods by assessing three main questions: What is the best distribution type to model the protein angles? What is a reasonable number of components in a mixture model that should be considered to accurately parameterize the joint distribution of the angles? and What is the order of the local sequence-structure dependency that should be considered by a prediction method? We assess the model fits for different methods using bivariate lag-distributions of the dihedral/planar angles. Moreover, the main information across the lags can be extracted using a technique called Lag singular value decomposition (LagSVD), which considers the joint distribution of the dihedral/planar angles over different lags using a nonparametric approach and monitors the behavior of the lag-distribution of the angles using singular value decomposition. As a result, we developed graphical tools and numerical measurements to compare and evaluate the performance of different model fits. Furthermore, we developed a web-tool (http://www.stat.tamu. edu/~madoliat/LagSVD) that can be used to produce informative animations. © The Author 2012. Published by Oxford University Press.

Time dependent and asymptotic neutron number probability distribution calculation using discrete Fourier transform

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Humbert, Ph.

2005-01-01

In this paper we consider the probability distribution of neutrons in a multiplying assembly. The problem is studied using a space independent one group neutron point reactor model without delayed neutrons. We recall the generating function methodology and analytical results obtained by G.I. Bell when the c 2 approximation is used and we present numerical solutions in the general case, without this approximation. The neutron source induced distribution is calculated using the single initial neutron distribution which satisfies a master (Kolmogorov backward) equation. This equation is solved using the generating function method. The generating function satisfies a differential equation and the probability distribution is derived by inversion of the generating function. Numerical results are obtained using the same methodology where the generating function is the Fourier transform of the probability distribution. Discrete Fourier transforms are used to calculate the discrete time dependent distributions and continuous Fourier transforms are used to calculate the asymptotic continuous probability distributions. Numerical applications are presented to illustrate the method. (author)

Disordered porous solids : from chord distributions to small angle scattering

Science.gov (United States)

Levitz, P.; Tchoubar, D.

1992-06-01

Disordered biphasic porous solids are examples of complex interfacial media. Small angle scattering strongly depends on the geometrical properties of the internal surface partitioning a porous system. Properties of the second derivative of the bulk autocorrelation function quantitatively defines the level of connection between the small angle scattering and the statistical properties of this interface. A tractable expression of this second derivative, involving the pore and the mass chord distribution functions, was proposed by Mering and Tchoubar (MT). Based on the present possibility to make a quantitative connection between imaging techniques and the small angle scattering, this paper tries to complete and to extend the MT approach. We first discuss how chord distribution functions can be used as fingerprints of the structural disorder. An explicit relation between the small angle scattering and these chord distributions is then proposed. In a third part, the application to different types of disorder is critically discussed and predictions are compared to available experimental data. Using image processing, we will consider three types of disorder : the long-range Debye randomness, the “ correlated " disorder with a special emphasis on the structure of a porous glass (the vycor), and, finally, complex structures where length scale invariance properties can be observed. Les solides poreux biphasiques sont des exemples de milieux interfaciaux complexes. La diffusion aux petits angles (SAS) dépend fortement des propriétés géométriques de l'interface partitionant le milieu poreux. Les propriétés de la dérivée seconde de la fonction d'autocorrélation de densité définit quantitativement le niveau de connection entre la diffusion aux petits angles et les caractéristiques statistiques de cette interface. Une expression utilisable de cette seconde dérivée, impliquant les distributions de cordes associées à la phase massique et au réseau de pores, fut

The exact probability distribution of the rank product statistics for replicated experiments.

Science.gov (United States)

Eisinga, Rob; Breitling, Rainer; Heskes, Tom

2013-03-18

The rank product method is a widely accepted technique for detecting differentially regulated genes in replicated microarray experiments. To approximate the sampling distribution of the rank product statistic, the original publication proposed a permutation approach, whereas recently an alternative approximation based on the continuous gamma distribution was suggested. However, both approximations are imperfect for estimating small tail probabilities. In this paper we relate the rank product statistic to number theory and provide a derivation of its exact probability distribution and the true tail probabilities. Copyright © 2013 Federation of European Biochemical Societies. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Feynman quasi probability distribution for spin-(1/2), and its generalizations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Colucci, M.

1999-01-01

It has been examined the Feynman's paper Negative probability, in which, after a discussion about the possibility of attributing a real physical meaning to quasi probability distributions, he introduces a new kind of distribution for spin-(1/2), with a possible method of generalization to systems with arbitrary number of states. The principal aim of this article is to shed light upon the method of construction of these distributions, taking into consideration their application to some experiments, and discussing their positive and negative aspects

Influence of dose distribution homogeneity on the tumor control probability in heavy-ion radiotherapy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wen Xiaoqiong; Li Qiang; Zhou Guangming; Li Wenjian; Wei Zengquan

2001-01-01

In order to estimate the influence of the un-uniform dose distribution on the clinical treatment result, the Influence of dose distribution homogeneity on the tumor control probability was investigated. Basing on the formula deduced previously for survival fraction of cells irradiated by the un-uniform heavy-ion irradiation field and the theory of tumor control probability, the tumor control probability was calculated for a tumor mode exposed to different dose distribution homogeneity. The results show that the tumor control probability responding to the same total dose will decrease if the dose distribution homogeneity gets worse. In clinical treatment, the dose distribution homogeneity should be better than 95%

Separating the contributions of variability and parameter uncertainty in probability distributions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sankararaman, S.; Mahadevan, S.

2013-01-01

This paper proposes a computational methodology to quantify the individual contributions of variability and distribution parameter uncertainty to the overall uncertainty in a random variable. Even if the distribution type is assumed to be known, sparse or imprecise data leads to uncertainty about the distribution parameters. If uncertain distribution parameters are represented using probability distributions, then the random variable can be represented using a family of probability distributions. The family of distributions concept has been used to obtain qualitative, graphical inference of the contributions of natural variability and distribution parameter uncertainty. The proposed methodology provides quantitative estimates of the contributions of the two types of uncertainty. Using variance-based global sensitivity analysis, the contributions of variability and distribution parameter uncertainty to the overall uncertainty are computed. The proposed method is developed at two different levels; first, at the level of a variable whose distribution parameters are uncertain, and second, at the level of a model output whose inputs have uncertain distribution parameters

Light Scattering of Rough Orthogonal Anisotropic Surfaces with Secondary Most Probable Slope Distributions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li Hai-Xia; Cheng Chuan-Fu

2011-01-01

We study the light scattering of an orthogonal anisotropic rough surface with secondary most probable slope distribution. It is found that the scattered intensity profiles have obvious secondary maxima, and in the direction perpendicular to the plane of incidence, the secondary maxima are oriented in a curve on the observation plane, which is called the orientation curve. By numerical calculation of the scattering wave fields with the height data of the sample, it is validated that the secondary maxima are induced by the side face element, which constitutes the prismoid structure of the anisotropic surface. We derive the equation of the quadratic orientation curve. Experimentally, we construct the system for light scattering measurement using a CCD. The scattered intensity profiles are extracted from the images at different angles of incidence along the orientation curves. The experimental results conform to the theory. (fundamental areas of phenomenology(including applications))

Conical pitch angle distributions of very-low energy ion fluxes observed by ISEE 1

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Horowitz, J.L.; Baugher, C.R.; Chappell, C.R.; Shelley, E.G.; Young, D.T.

1982-01-01

Observations of low-energy ionospheric ions by the plasma composition experiment abroad ISEE 1 often show conical pitch angle distributions, that is, peak fluxes between 0 0 and 90 0 to the directions parallel or antiparallel to the magnetic field. Frequently, all three primary ionospheric ion species (H + , He + , and O + ) simultaneously exhibit conical distributions with peak fluxes at essentially the same pitch angle. A distinction is made here between unidirectional, or streaming, distributions, in which ions are traveling essentially from only one hemisphere, and symmetrical distributions, in which significant fluxes are observed traveling from both hemispheres. The orbital coverage for this survey was largely restricted to the night sector, approximately 2100--0600 LT, and moderate geomagnetic latitudes of 20 0 --40 0 . Also, lack of complete pitch angle coverage at all times may have reduced detection for conics with small cone angles. However, we may conclude that the unidirectional conical distributions observed in the northern hemisphere are always observed to be traveling from the northern hemisphere and that they exhibit the following characteristics relative to the symmetric distributions, in that they (1) are typically observed on higher L shells (that is, higher geomagnetic latitudes or larger geocentric distances or both), (2) tend to have significantly larger cone angles, and (3), are associated with higher magnetic activity levels

The distributed failure probability approach to dependent failure analysis, and its application

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hughes, R.P.

1989-01-01

The Distributed Failure Probability (DFP) approach to the problem of dependent failures in systems is presented. The basis of the approach is that the failure probability of a component is a variable. The source of this variability is the change in the 'environment' of the component, where the term 'environment' is used to mean not only obvious environmental factors such as temperature etc., but also such factors as the quality of maintenance and manufacture. The failure probability is distributed among these various 'environments' giving rise to the Distributed Failure Probability method. Within the framework which this method represents, modelling assumptions can be made, based both on engineering judgment and on the data directly. As such, this DFP approach provides a soundly based and scrutable technique by which dependent failures can be quantitatively assessed. (orig.)

Probability of K atomic shell ionization by heavy particles impact, in functions of the scattering angle

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Oliveira, P.M.C. de.

1976-12-01

A method of calculation of the K atomic shell ionization probability by heavy particles impact, in the semi-classical approximation is presented. In this approximation, the projectile has a classical trajectory. The potential energy due to the projectile is taken as perturbation of the Hamiltonian of the neutral atom. We use scaled Thomas-Fermi wave function for the atomic electrons. The method is valid for intermediate atomic number elements and particle energies of some MeV. Probabilities are calculated for the case of Ag (Z = 47) and protons of 1 and 2 MeV. Results are given as function of scattering angle, and agree well known experimental data and also improve older calculations. (Author) [pt

Superthermal photon bunching in terms of simple probability distributions

Science.gov (United States)

Lettau, T.; Leymann, H. A. M.; Melcher, B.; Wiersig, J.

2018-05-01

We analyze the second-order photon autocorrelation function g(2 ) with respect to the photon probability distribution and discuss the generic features of a distribution that results in superthermal photon bunching [g(2 )(0 ) >2 ]. Superthermal photon bunching has been reported for a number of optical microcavity systems that exhibit processes such as superradiance or mode competition. We show that a superthermal photon number distribution cannot be constructed from the principle of maximum entropy if only the intensity and the second-order autocorrelation are given. However, for bimodal systems, an unbiased superthermal distribution can be constructed from second-order correlations and the intensities alone. Our findings suggest modeling superthermal single-mode distributions by a mixture of a thermal and a lasinglike state and thus reveal a generic mechanism in the photon probability distribution responsible for creating superthermal photon bunching. We relate our general considerations to a physical system, i.e., a (single-emitter) bimodal laser, and show that its statistics can be approximated and understood within our proposed model. Furthermore, the excellent agreement of the statistics of the bimodal laser and our model reveals that the bimodal laser is an ideal source of bunched photons, in the sense that it can generate statistics that contain no other features but the superthermal bunching.

Probability Distributions for Cyclone Key Parameters and Cyclonic Wind Speed for the East Coast of Indian Region

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pradeep K. Goyal

2011-09-01

Full Text Available This paper presents a study conducted on the probabilistic distribution of key cyclone parameters and the cyclonic wind speed by analyzing the cyclone track records obtained from India meteorological department for east coast region of India. The dataset of historical landfalling storm tracks in India from 1975–2007 with latitude /longitude and landfall locations are used to map the cyclone tracks in a region of study. The statistical tests were performed to find a best fit distribution to the track data for each cyclone parameter. These parameters include central pressure difference, the radius of maximum wind speed, the translation velocity, track angle with site and are used to generate digital simulated cyclones using wind field simulation techniques. For this, different sets of values for all the cyclone key parameters are generated randomly from their probability distributions. Using these simulated values of the cyclone key parameters, the distribution of wind velocity at a particular site is obtained. The same distribution of wind velocity at the site is also obtained from actual track records and using the distributions of the cyclone key parameters as published in the literature. The simulated distribution is compared with the wind speed distributions obtained from actual track records. The findings are useful in cyclone disaster mitigation.

Generalization of Poisson distribution for the case of changing probability of consequential events

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kushnirenko, E.

1995-01-01

The generalization of the Poisson distribution for the case of changing probabilities of the consequential events is done. It is shown that the classical Poisson distribution is the special case of this generalized distribution when the probabilities of the consequential events are constant. The using of the generalized Poisson distribution gives the possibility in some cases to obtain analytical result instead of making Monte-Carlo calculation

Measurement of Plutonium-240 Angular Momentum Dependent Fission Probabilities Using the Alpha-Alpha' Reaction

Science.gov (United States)

Koglin, Johnathon

8:0MeV and one bin from 4:5MeV to 5:5MeV. Across energy bins the fission probability increases approximately linearly with increasing alpha' scattering angle. At 90° the fission probability increases from 0:069(6) in the lowest energy bin to 0:59(2) in the highest. Likewise, within a single energy bin the fission probability increases with alpha' scattering angle. Within the 6:5MeV and 7:0MeV energy bin, the fission probability increased from 0:41(1) at 60° to 0:81(10) at 140°. Fission fragment angular distributions were also measured integrated over each energy bin. These distributions were fit to theoretical distributions based on combinations of transitional nuclear vibrational and rotational excitations at the saddle point. Contributions from specific K vibrational states were extracted and combined with fission probability measurements to determine the relative fission probability of each state as a function of nuclear excitation energy. Within a given excitation energy bin, it is found that contributions from K states greater than the minimum K = 0 state tend to increase with the increasing alpha' scattering angle. This is attributed to an increase in the transferred angular momentum associated with larger scattering angles. The 90° alpha' scattering angle produced the highest quality results. The relative contributions of K states do not show a discernible trend across the energy spectrum. The energy-binned results confirm existing measurements that place a K = 2 state in the first energy bin with the opening of K = 1 and K = 4 states at energies above 5:5MeV. This experiment represents the first of its kind in which fission probabilities and angular distributions are simultaneously measured at a large number of scattering angles. The acquired fission probability, angular distribution, and K state contribution provide a diverse dataset against which microscopic fission models can be constrained and further the understanding of the properties of the 240Pu

Family of probability distributions derived from maximal entropy principle with scale invariant restrictions.

Science.gov (United States)

Sonnino, Giorgio; Steinbrecher, György; Cardinali, Alessandro; Sonnino, Alberto; Tlidi, Mustapha

2013-01-01

Using statistical thermodynamics, we derive a general expression of the stationary probability distribution for thermodynamic systems driven out of equilibrium by several thermodynamic forces. The local equilibrium is defined by imposing the minimum entropy production and the maximum entropy principle under the scale invariance restrictions. The obtained probability distribution presents a singularity that has immediate physical interpretation in terms of the intermittency models. The derived reference probability distribution function is interpreted as time and ensemble average of the real physical one. A generic family of stochastic processes describing noise-driven intermittency, where the stationary density distribution coincides exactly with the one resulted from entropy maximization, is presented.

Study on probability distribution of fire scenarios in risk assessment to emergency evacuation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chu Guanquan; Wang Jinhui

2012-01-01

Event tree analysis (ETA) is a frequently-used technique to analyze the probability of probable fire scenario. The event probability is usually characterized by definite value. It is not appropriate to use definite value as these estimates may be the result of poor quality statistics and limited knowledge. Without addressing uncertainties, ETA will give imprecise results. The credibility of risk assessment will be undermined. This paper presents an approach to address event probability uncertainties and analyze probability distribution of probable fire scenario. ETA is performed to construct probable fire scenarios. The activation time of every event is characterized as stochastic variable by considering uncertainties of fire growth rate and other input variables. To obtain probability distribution of probable fire scenario, Markov Chain is proposed to combine with ETA. To demonstrate the approach, a case study is presented.

A new expression of the probability distribution in Incomplete Statistics and fundamental thermodynamic relations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Huang Zhifu; Lin Bihong; ChenJincan

2009-01-01

In order to overcome the limitations of the original expression of the probability distribution appearing in literature of Incomplete Statistics, a new expression of the probability distribution is derived, where the Lagrange multiplier β introduced here is proved to be identical with that introduced in the second and third choices for the internal energy constraint in Tsallis' statistics and to be just equal to the physical inverse temperature. It is expounded that the probability distribution described by the new expression is invariant through uniform translation of the energy spectrum. Moreover, several fundamental thermodynamic relations are given and the relationship between the new and the original expressions of the probability distribution is discussed.

Collective motions of globally coupled oscillators and some probability distributions on circle

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jaćimović, Vladimir [Faculty of Natural Sciences and Mathematics, University of Montenegro, Cetinjski put, bb., 81000 Podgorica (Montenegro); Crnkić, Aladin, E-mail: aladin.crnkic@hotmail.com [Faculty of Technical Engineering, University of Bihać, Ljubijankićeva, bb., 77000 Bihać, Bosnia and Herzegovina (Bosnia and Herzegovina)

2017-06-28

In 2010 Kato and Jones described a new family of probability distributions on circle, obtained as Möbius transformation of von Mises distribution. We present the model demonstrating that these distributions appear naturally in study of populations of coupled oscillators. We use this opportunity to point out certain relations between Directional Statistics and collective motion of coupled oscillators. - Highlights: • We specify probability distributions on circle that arise in Kuramoto model. • We study how the mean-field coupling affects the shape of distribution of phases. • We discuss potential applications in some experiments on cell cycle. • We apply Directional Statistics to study collective dynamics of coupled oscillators.

How Can Histograms Be Useful for Introducing Continuous Probability Distributions?

Science.gov (United States)

Derouet, Charlotte; Parzysz, Bernard

2016-01-01

The teaching of probability has changed a great deal since the end of the last century. The development of technologies is indeed part of this evolution. In France, continuous probability distributions began to be studied in 2002 by scientific 12th graders, but this subject was marginal and appeared only as an application of integral calculus.…

Calculation of ruin probabilities for a dense class of heavy tailed distributions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bladt, Mogens; Nielsen, Bo Friis; Samorodnitsky, Gennady

2015-01-01

In this paper, we propose a class of infinite-dimensional phase-type distributions with finitely many parameters as models for heavy tailed distributions. The class of finite-dimensional phase-type distributions is dense in the class of distributions on the positive reals and may hence approximate...... any such distribution. We prove that formulas from renewal theory, and with a particular attention to ruin probabilities, which are true for common phase-type distributions also hold true for the infinite-dimensional case. We provide algorithms for calculating functionals of interest...... such as the renewal density and the ruin probability. It might be of interest to approximate a given heavy tailed distribution of some other type by a distribution from the class of infinite-dimensional phase-type distributions and to this end we provide a calibration procedure which works for the approximation...

Probability distribution of extreme share returns in Malaysia

Science.gov (United States)

Zin, Wan Zawiah Wan; Safari, Muhammad Aslam Mohd; Jaaman, Saiful Hafizah; Yie, Wendy Ling Shin

2014-09-01

The objective of this study is to investigate the suitable probability distribution to model the extreme share returns in Malaysia. To achieve this, weekly and monthly maximum daily share returns are derived from share prices data obtained from Bursa Malaysia over the period of 2000 to 2012. The study starts with summary statistics of the data which will provide a clue on the likely candidates for the best fitting distribution. Next, the suitability of six extreme value distributions, namely the Gumbel, Generalized Extreme Value (GEV), Generalized Logistic (GLO) and Generalized Pareto (GPA), the Lognormal (GNO) and the Pearson (PE3) distributions are evaluated. The method of L-moments is used in parameter estimation. Based on several goodness of fit tests and L-moment diagram test, the Generalized Pareto distribution and the Pearson distribution are found to be the best fitted distribution to represent the weekly and monthly maximum share returns in Malaysia stock market during the studied period, respectively.

Probability, conditional probability and complementary cumulative distribution functions in performance assessment for radioactive waste disposal

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Helton, J.C.

1996-03-01

A formal description of the structure of several recent performance assessments (PAs) for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) is given in terms of the following three components: a probability space (S st , S st , p st ) for stochastic uncertainty, a probability space (S su , S su , p su ) for subjective uncertainty and a function (i.e., a random variable) defined on the product space associated with (S st , S st , p st ) and (S su , S su , p su ). The explicit recognition of the existence of these three components allows a careful description of the use of probability, conditional probability and complementary cumulative distribution functions within the WIPP PA. This usage is illustrated in the context of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's standard for the geologic disposal of radioactive waste (40 CFR 191, Subpart B). The paradigm described in this presentation can also be used to impose a logically consistent structure on PAs for other complex systems

Probability, conditional probability and complementary cumulative distribution functions in performance assessment for radioactive waste disposal

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Helton, J.C.

1996-01-01

A formal description of the structure of several recent performance assessments (PAs) for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) is given in terms of the following three components: a probability space (S st , L st , P st ) for stochastic uncertainty, a probability space (S su , L su , P su ) for subjective uncertainty and a function (i.e., a random variable) defined on the product space associated with (S st , L st , P st ) and (S su , L su , P su ). The explicit recognition of the existence of these three components allows a careful description of the use of probability, conditional probability and complementary cumulative distribution functions within the WIPP PA. This usage is illustrated in the context of the US Environmental Protection Agency's standard for the geologic disposal of radioactive waste (40 CFR 191, Subpart B). The paradigm described in this presentation can also be used to impose a logically consistent structure on PAs for other complex systems

A formalism to generate probability distributions for performance-assessment modeling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kaplan, P.G.

1990-01-01

A formalism is presented for generating probability distributions of parameters used in performance-assessment modeling. The formalism is used when data are either sparse or nonexistent. The appropriate distribution is a function of the known or estimated constraints and is chosen to maximize a quantity known as Shannon's informational entropy. The formalism is applied to a parameter used in performance-assessment modeling. The functional form of the model that defines the parameter, data from the actual field site, and natural analog data are analyzed to estimate the constraints. A beta probability distribution of the example parameter is generated after finding four constraints. As an example of how the formalism is applied to the site characterization studies of Yucca Mountain, the distribution is generated for an input parameter in a performance-assessment model currently used to estimate compliance with disposal of high-level radioactive waste in geologic repositories, 10 CFR 60.113(a)(2), commonly known as the ground water travel time criterion. 8 refs., 2 figs

Statistical models based on conditional probability distributions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Narayanan, R.S.

1991-10-01

We present a formulation of statistical mechanics models based on conditional probability distribution rather than a Hamiltonian. We show that it is possible to realize critical phenomena through this procedure. Closely linked with this formulation is a Monte Carlo algorithm, in which a configuration generated is guaranteed to be statistically independent from any other configuration for all values of the parameters, in particular near the critical point. (orig.)

Probability Distribution and Deviation Information Fusion Driven Support Vector Regression Model and Its Application

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Changhao Fan

2017-01-01

Full Text Available In modeling, only information from the deviation between the output of the support vector regression (SVR model and the training sample is considered, whereas the other prior information of the training sample, such as probability distribution information, is ignored. Probabilistic distribution information describes the overall distribution of sample data in a training sample that contains different degrees of noise and potential outliers, as well as helping develop a high-accuracy model. To mine and use the probability distribution information of a training sample, a new support vector regression model that incorporates probability distribution information weight SVR (PDISVR is proposed. In the PDISVR model, the probability distribution of each sample is considered as the weight and is then introduced into the error coefficient and slack variables of SVR. Thus, the deviation and probability distribution information of the training sample are both used in the PDISVR model to eliminate the influence of noise and outliers in the training sample and to improve predictive performance. Furthermore, examples with different degrees of noise were employed to demonstrate the performance of PDISVR, which was then compared with those of three SVR-based methods. The results showed that PDISVR performs better than the three other methods.

Quantitative non-monotonic modeling of economic uncertainty by probability and possibility distributions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Schjær-Jacobsen, Hans

2012-01-01

uncertainty can be calculated. The possibility approach is particular well suited for representation of uncertainty of a non-statistical nature due to lack of knowledge and requires less information than the probability approach. Based on the kind of uncertainty and knowledge present, these aspects...... to the understanding of similarities and differences of the two approaches as well as practical applications. The probability approach offers a good framework for representation of randomness and variability. Once the probability distributions of uncertain parameters and their correlations are known the resulting...... are thoroughly discussed in the case of rectangular representation of uncertainty by the uniform probability distribution and the interval, respectively. Also triangular representations are dealt with and compared. Calculation of monotonic as well as non-monotonic functions of variables represented...

WIENER-HOPF SOLVER WITH SMOOTH PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS OF ITS COMPONENTS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mr. Vladimir A. Smagin

2016-12-01

Full Text Available The Wiener – Hopf solver with smooth probability distributions of its component is presented. The method is based on hyper delta approximations of initial distributions. The use of Fourier series transformation and characteristic function allows working with the random variable method concentrated in transversal axis of absc.

Probability distribution of long-run indiscriminate felling of trees in ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

The study was undertaken to determine the probability distribution of Long-run indiscriminate felling of trees in northern senatorial district of Adamawa State. Specifically, the study focused on examining the future direction of indiscriminate felling of trees as well as its equilibrium distribution. A multi-stage and simple random ...

Theoretical derivation of wind power probability distribution function and applications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Altunkaynak, Abdüsselam; Erdik, Tarkan; Dabanlı, İsmail; Şen, Zekai

2012-01-01

Highlights: ► Derivation of wind power stochastic characteristics are standard deviation and the dimensionless skewness. ► The perturbation is expressions for the wind power statistics from Weibull probability distribution function (PDF). ► Comparisons with the corresponding characteristics of wind speed PDF abides by the Weibull PDF. ► The wind power abides with the Weibull-PDF. -- Abstract: The instantaneous wind power contained in the air current is directly proportional with the cube of the wind speed. In practice, there is a record of wind speeds in the form of a time series. It is, therefore, necessary to develop a formulation that takes into consideration the statistical parameters of such a time series. The purpose of this paper is to derive the general wind power formulation in terms of the statistical parameters by using the perturbation theory, which leads to a general formulation of the wind power expectation and other statistical parameter expressions such as the standard deviation and the coefficient of variation. The formulation is very general and can be applied specifically for any wind speed probability distribution function. Its application to two-parameter Weibull probability distribution of wind speeds is presented in full detail. It is concluded that provided wind speed is distributed according to a Weibull distribution, the wind power could be derived based on wind speed data. It is possible to determine wind power at any desired risk level, however, in practical studies most often 5% or 10% risk levels are preferred and the necessary simple procedure is presented for this purpose in this paper.

Numerical Loading of a Maxwellian Probability Distribution Function

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lewandowski, J.L.V.

2003-01-01

A renormalization procedure for the numerical loading of a Maxwellian probability distribution function (PDF) is formulated. The procedure, which involves the solution of three coupled nonlinear equations, yields a numerically loaded PDF with improved properties for higher velocity moments. This method is particularly useful for low-noise particle-in-cell simulations with electron dynamics

On the probability distribution of the stochastic saturation scale in QCD

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Marquet, C.; Soyez, G.; Xiao Bowen

2006-01-01

It was recently noticed that high-energy scattering processes in QCD have a stochastic nature. An event-by-event scattering amplitude is characterised by a saturation scale which is a random variable. The statistical ensemble of saturation scales formed with all the events is distributed according to a probability law whose cumulants have been recently computed. In this work, we obtain the probability distribution from the cumulants. We prove that it can be considered as Gaussian over a large domain that we specify and our results are confirmed by numerical simulations

Solar cell angle of incidence corrections

Science.gov (United States)

Burger, Dale R.; Mueller, Robert L.

1995-01-01

Literature on solar array angle of incidence corrections was found to be sparse and contained no tabular data for support. This lack along with recent data on 27 GaAs/Ge 4 cm by 4 cm cells initiated the analysis presented in this paper. The literature cites seven possible contributors to angle of incidence effects: cosine, optical front surface, edge, shadowing, UV degradation, particulate soiling, and background color. Only the first three are covered in this paper due to lack of sufficient data. The cosine correction is commonly used but is not sufficient when the incident angle is large. Fresnel reflection calculations require knowledge of the index of refraction of the coverglass front surface. The absolute index of refraction for the coverglass front surface was not known nor was it measured due to lack of funds. However, a value for the index of refraction was obtained by examining how the prediction errors varied with different assumed indices and selecting the best fit to the set of measured values. Corrections using front surface Fresnel reflection along with the cosine correction give very good predictive results when compared to measured data, except there is a definite trend away from predicted values at the larger incident angles. This trend could be related to edge effects and is illustrated by a use of a box plot of the errors and by plotting the deviation of the mean against incidence angle. The trend is for larger deviations at larger incidence angles and there may be a fourth order effect involved in the trend. A chi-squared test was used to determine if the measurement errors were normally distributed. At 10 degrees the chi-squared test failed, probably due to the very small numbers involved or a bias from the measurement procedure. All other angles showed a good fit to the normal distribution with increasing goodness-of-fit as the angles increased which reinforces the very small numbers hypothesis. The contributed data only went to 65 degrees

Calculation of magnetization curves and probability distribution for monoclinic and uniaxial systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sobh, Hala A.; Aly, Samy H.; Yehia, Sherif

2013-01-01

We present the application of a simple classical statistical mechanics-based model to selected monoclinic and hexagonal model systems. In this model, we treat the magnetization as a classical vector whose angular orientation is dictated by the laws of equilibrium classical statistical mechanics. We calculate for these anisotropic systems, the magnetization curves, energy landscapes and probability distribution for different sets of relevant parameters and magnetic fields of different strengths and directions. Our results demonstrate a correlation between the most probable orientation of the magnetization vector, the system's parameters, and the external magnetic field. -- Highlights: ► We calculate magnetization curves and probability angular distribution of the magnetization. ► The magnetization curves are consistent with probability results for the studied systems. ► Monoclinic and hexagonal systems behave differently due to their different anisotropies

Probability, conditional probability and complementary cumulative distribution functions in performance assessment for radioactive waste disposal

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Helton, J.C. [Arizona State Univ., Tempe, AZ (United States)

1996-03-01

A formal description of the structure of several recent performance assessments (PAs) for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) is given in terms of the following three components: a probability space (S{sub st}, S{sub st}, p{sub st}) for stochastic uncertainty, a probability space (S{sub su}, S{sub su}, p{sub su}) for subjective uncertainty and a function (i.e., a random variable) defined on the product space associated with (S{sub st}, S{sub st}, p{sub st}) and (S{sub su}, S{sub su}, p{sub su}). The explicit recognition of the existence of these three components allows a careful description of the use of probability, conditional probability and complementary cumulative distribution functions within the WIPP PA. This usage is illustrated in the context of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency`s standard for the geologic disposal of radioactive waste (40 CFR 191, Subpart B). The paradigm described in this presentation can also be used to impose a logically consistent structure on PAs for other complex systems.

Quantum Fourier transform, Heisenberg groups and quasi-probability distributions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Patra, Manas K; Braunstein, Samuel L

2011-01-01

This paper aims to explore the inherent connection between Heisenberg groups, quantum Fourier transform (QFT) and (quasi-probability) distribution functions. Distribution functions for continuous and finite quantum systems are examined from three perspectives and all of them lead to Weyl-Gabor-Heisenberg groups. The QFT appears as the intertwining operator of two equivalent representations arising out of an automorphism of the group. Distribution functions correspond to certain distinguished sets in the group algebra. The marginal properties of a particular class of distribution functions (Wigner distributions) arise from a class of automorphisms of the group algebra of the Heisenberg group. We then study the reconstruction of the Wigner function from the marginal distributions via inverse Radon transform giving explicit formulae. We consider some applications of our approach to quantum information processing and quantum process tomography.

New family of probability distributions with applications to Monte Carlo studies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Johnson, M.E.; Tietjen, G.L.; Beckman, R.J.

1980-01-01

A new probability distribution is presented that offers considerable potential for providing stochastic inputs to Monte Carlo simulation studies. The distribution includes the exponential power family as a special case. An efficient computational strategy is proposed for random variate generation. An example for testing the hypothesis of unit variance illustrates the advantages of the proposed distribution

Precipitation intensity probability distribution modelling for hydrological and construction design purposes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Koshinchanov, Georgy; Dimitrov, Dobri

2008-01-01

The characteristics of rainfall intensity are important for many purposes, including design of sewage and drainage systems, tuning flood warning procedures, etc. Those estimates are usually statistical estimates of the intensity of precipitation realized for certain period of time (e.g. 5, 10 min., etc) with different return period (e.g. 20, 100 years, etc). The traditional approach in evaluating the mentioned precipitation intensities is to process the pluviometer's records and fit probability distribution to samples of intensities valid for certain locations ore regions. Those estimates further become part of the state regulations to be used for various economic activities. Two problems occur using the mentioned approach: 1. Due to various factors the climate conditions are changed and the precipitation intensity estimates need regular update; 2. As far as the extremes of the probability distribution are of particular importance for the practice, the methodology of the distribution fitting needs specific attention to those parts of the distribution. The aim of this paper is to make review of the existing methodologies for processing the intensive rainfalls and to refresh some of the statistical estimates for the studied areas. The methodologies used in Bulgaria for analyzing the intensive rainfalls and produce relevant statistical estimates: - The method of the maximum intensity, used in the National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology to process and decode the pluviometer's records, followed by distribution fitting for each precipitation duration period; - As the above, but with separate modeling of probability distribution for the middle and high probability quantiles. - Method is similar to the first one, but with a threshold of 0,36 mm/min of intensity; - Another method proposed by the Russian hydrologist G. A. Aleksiev for regionalization of estimates over some territory, improved and adapted by S. Gerasimov for Bulgaria; - Next method is considering only

Evaluation of the probability distribution of intake from a single measurement on a personal air sampler

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Birchall, A.; Muirhead, C.R.; James, A.C.

1988-01-01

An analytical expression has been derived for the k-sum distribution, formed by summing k random variables from a lognormal population. Poisson statistics are used with this distribution to derive distribution of intake when breathing an atmosphere with a constant particle number concentration. Bayesian inference is then used to calculate the posterior probability distribution of concentrations from a given measurement. This is combined with the above intake distribution to give the probability distribution of intake resulting from a single measurement of activity made by an ideal sampler. It is shown that the probability distribution of intake is very dependent on the prior distribution used in Bayes' theorem. The usual prior assumption, that all number concentrations are equally probable, leads to an imbalance in the posterior intake distribution. This can be resolved if a new prior proportional to w -2/3 is used, where w is the expected number of particles collected. (author)

Log-concave Probability Distributions: Theory and Statistical Testing

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

An, Mark Yuing

1996-01-01

This paper studies the broad class of log-concave probability distributions that arise in economics of uncertainty and information. For univariate, continuous, and log-concave random variables we prove useful properties without imposing the differentiability of density functions. Discrete...... and multivariate distributions are also discussed. We propose simple non-parametric testing procedures for log-concavity. The test statistics are constructed to test one of the two implicati ons of log-concavity: increasing hazard rates and new-is-better-than-used (NBU) property. The test for increasing hazard...... rates are based on normalized spacing of the sample order statistics. The tests for NBU property fall into the category of Hoeffding's U-statistics...

Arrival time and incidence angle distributions of extensive air showers (EAS) muons

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brancus, I.M.; Duma, M.; Vulpescu, B.; Foeller, M.; Rebel, H.; Voelker, G.; Chilingarian, A.A.

1995-01-01

The arrival time distributions of the muons can be related to the longitudinal EAS development and may provide additional information about the nature of the primary. Based on EAS simulations using the Monte-Carlo code CORSIKA, the correlations between arrival time and incidence angle distributions have been investigated in a case of a set of ideal detectors (10 m x 10 m) placed at various distances from the shower core. Applying advanced statistical techniques based on Bayes decision rule and non-parametric multivariate analysing methods it turns out that the correlations of muon arrival time and incidence angle at various separating distances of about 50 m exhibit promising features for mass discrimination (author)

Broadband and wide-angle distributed Bragg reflectors based on amorphous germanium films by glancing angle deposition.

Science.gov (United States)

Leem, Jung Woo; Yu, Jae Su

2012-08-27

We fabricated the distributed Bragg reflectors (DBRs) with amorphous germanium (a-Ge) films consisted of the same materials at a center wavelength (λc) of 1.33 μm by the glancing angle deposition. Their optical reflectance properties were investigated in the infrared wavelength region of 1-1.9 μm at incident light angles (θ inc) of 8-70°, together with the theoretical analysis using a rigorous coupled-wave analysis simulation. The two alternating a-Ge films at the incident vapor flux angles of 0 and 75° were formed as the high and low refractive index materials, respectively. The a-Ge DBR with only 5 periods exhibited a normalized stop bandwidth (∆λ/λ c) of ~24.1%, maintaining high reflectance (R) values of > 99%. Even at a high θ inc of 70°, the ∆λ/λ c was ~21.9%, maintaining R values of > 85%. The a-Ge DBR with good uniformity was obtained over the area of a 2 inch Si wafer. The calculated reflectance results showed a similar tendency to the measured data.

HEART ELECTRICAL AXIS Α ANGLE VALUES DISTRIBUTION IN PATIENTS, UNDERGOING PERMANENT PACEMAKER IMPLANTATION

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

O. S. Voronenko

2016-06-01

Full Text Available 52 patients (24 male and 28 female aged 71 ± 8 years, underwent permanent pacemaker implantation were included in the study. Analysis of heart electrical axis (HEA α angle values distribution was carried out in three dimensions in patience before and after pacemaker (PM implantation. The data processed in Microsoft Excel with calculation of the average and it’s standard deviation. Significance of differences in data before and after PM implantation was assessed using Friedman ANOVA test and Kendall concordance coefficient. It was found, that α angle values distribution in patients with implanted PM is transformed from a unimodal to bimodal on the permanent cardiac pacing background. It’s assumed, that α angle changes resulting due to right ventricular electrode positioning options during PM implantation. Clarification of the nature of this change requires a special study.

Exact probability distribution function for the volatility of cumulative production

Science.gov (United States)

Zadourian, Rubina; Klümper, Andreas

2018-04-01

In this paper we study the volatility and its probability distribution function for the cumulative production based on the experience curve hypothesis. This work presents a generalization of the study of volatility in Lafond et al. (2017), which addressed the effects of normally distributed noise in the production process. Due to its wide applicability in industrial and technological activities we present here the mathematical foundation for an arbitrary distribution function of the process, which we expect will pave the future research on forecasting of the production process.

Zenith-angle distributions of atmospheric muons above 20 GeV

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Decoster, R.J.; Stevenson, M.L.; Breakstone, A.; Flatte, S.M.

1975-01-01

The results of a magnetic-spectrometer experiment at ground level with optical spark chambers, scintillator hodoscope trigger and an air-gap magnet, are reported to given an evaluation of the zenith-angle distribution of the atmospheric muons above 20 GeV. An automatic flying spot digitizer, the Hummingbird, was used

Bounds for the probability distribution function of the linear ACD process

OpenAIRE

Fernandes, Marcelo

2003-01-01

Rio de Janeiro This paper derives both lower and upper bounds for the probability distribution function of stationary ACD(p, q) processes. For the purpose of illustration, I specialize the results to the main parent distributions in duration analysis. Simulations show that the lower bound is much tighter than the upper bound.

On Selection of the Probability Distribution for Representing the Maximum Annual Wind Speed in East Cairo, Egypt

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

El-Shanshoury, Gh. I.; El-Hemamy, S.T.

2013-01-01

The main objective of this paper is to identify an appropriate probability model and best plotting position formula which represent the maximum annual wind speed in east Cairo. This model can be used to estimate the extreme wind speed and return period at a particular site as well as to determine the radioactive release distribution in case of accident occurrence at a nuclear power plant. Wind speed probabilities can be estimated by using probability distributions. An accurate determination of probability distribution for maximum wind speed data is very important in expecting the extreme value . The probability plots of the maximum annual wind speed (MAWS) in east Cairo are fitted to six major statistical distributions namely: Gumbel, Weibull, Normal, Log-Normal, Logistic and Log- Logistic distribution, while eight plotting positions of Hosking and Wallis, Hazen, Gringorten, Cunnane, Blom, Filliben, Benard and Weibull are used for determining exceedance of their probabilities. A proper probability distribution for representing the MAWS is selected by the statistical test criteria in frequency analysis. Therefore, the best plotting position formula which can be used to select appropriate probability model representing the MAWS data must be determined. The statistical test criteria which represented in: the probability plot correlation coefficient (PPCC), the root mean square error (RMSE), the relative root mean square error (RRMSE) and the maximum absolute error (MAE) are used to select the appropriate probability position and distribution. The data obtained show that the maximum annual wind speed in east Cairo vary from 44.3 Km/h to 96.1 Km/h within duration of 39 years . Weibull plotting position combined with Normal distribution gave the highest fit, most reliable, accurate predictions and determination of the wind speed in the study area having the highest value of PPCC and lowest values of RMSE, RRMSE and MAE

Measurement of probability distributions for internal stresses in dislocated crystals

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wilkinson, Angus J.; Tarleton, Edmund; Vilalta-Clemente, Arantxa; Collins, David M. [Department of Materials, University of Oxford, Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3PH (United Kingdom); Jiang, Jun; Britton, T. Benjamin [Department of Materials, Imperial College London, Royal School of Mines, Exhibition Road, London SW7 2AZ (United Kingdom)

2014-11-03

Here, we analyse residual stress distributions obtained from various crystal systems using high resolution electron backscatter diffraction (EBSD) measurements. Histograms showing stress probability distributions exhibit tails extending to very high stress levels. We demonstrate that these extreme stress values are consistent with the functional form that should be expected for dislocated crystals. Analysis initially developed by Groma and co-workers for X-ray line profile analysis and based on the so-called “restricted second moment of the probability distribution” can be used to estimate the total dislocation density. The generality of the results are illustrated by application to three quite different systems, namely, face centred cubic Cu deformed in uniaxial tension, a body centred cubic steel deformed to larger strain by cold rolling, and hexagonal InAlN layers grown on misfitting sapphire and silicon carbide substrates.

Effects of Schroth and Pilates exercises on the Cobb angle and weight distribution of patients with scoliosis.

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Gichul; HwangBo, Pil-Neo

2016-03-01

[Purpose] The purpose of this study was to compare the effect of Schroth and Pilates exercises on the Cobb angle and body weight distribution of patients with idiopathic scoliosis. [Subjects] Twenty-four scoliosis patients with a Cobb angle of ≥20° were divided into the Schroth exercise group (SEG, n = 12) and the Pilates exercise group (PEG, n = 12). [Methods] The SEG and PEG performed Schroth and Pilates exercises, respectively, three times a week for 12 weeks. The Cobb angle was measured in the standing position with a radiography apparatus, and weight load was measured with Gait View Pro 1.0. [Results] In the intragroup comparison, both groups showed significant changes in the Cobb angle. For weight distribution, the SEG showed significant differences in the total weight between the concave and convex sides, but the PEG did not show significant differences. Furthermore, in the intragroup comparison, the SEG showed significant differences in the changes in the Cobb angle and weight distribution compared with the PEG. [Conclusion] Both Schroth and Pilates exercises were effective in changing the Cobb angle and weight distribution of scoliosis patients; however, the intergroup comparison showed that the Schroth exercise was more effective than the Pilates exercise.

Rank-Ordered Multifractal Analysis (ROMA of probability distributions in fluid turbulence

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

C. C. Wu

2011-04-01

Full Text Available Rank-Ordered Multifractal Analysis (ROMA was introduced by Chang and Wu (2008 to describe the multifractal characteristic of intermittent events. The procedure provides a natural connection between the rank-ordered spectrum and the idea of one-parameter scaling for monofractals. This technique has successfully been applied to MHD turbulence simulations and turbulence data observed in various space plasmas. In this paper, the technique is applied to the probability distributions in the inertial range of the turbulent fluid flow, as given in the vast Johns Hopkins University (JHU turbulence database. In addition, a new way of finding the continuous ROMA spectrum and the scaled probability distribution function (PDF simultaneously is introduced.

Probability distributions for first neighbor distances between resonances that belong to two different families

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Difilippo, F.C.

1994-01-01

For a mixture of two families of resonances, we found the probability distribution for the distance, as first neighbors, between resonances that belong to different families. Integration of this distribution gives the probability of accidental overlapping of resonances of one isotope by resonances of the other, provided that the resonances of each isotope belong to a single family. (author)

The leaf angle distribution of natural plant populations: assessing the canopy with a novel software tool.

Science.gov (United States)

Müller-Linow, Mark; Pinto-Espinosa, Francisco; Scharr, Hanno; Rascher, Uwe

2015-01-01

Three-dimensional canopies form complex architectures with temporally and spatially changing leaf orientations. Variations in canopy structure are linked to canopy function and they occur within the scope of genetic variability as well as a reaction to environmental factors like light, water and nutrient supply, and stress. An important key measure to characterize these structural properties is the leaf angle distribution, which in turn requires knowledge on the 3-dimensional single leaf surface. Despite a large number of 3-d sensors and methods only a few systems are applicable for fast and routine measurements in plants and natural canopies. A suitable approach is stereo imaging, which combines depth and color information that allows for easy segmentation of green leaf material and the extraction of plant traits, such as leaf angle distribution. We developed a software package, which provides tools for the quantification of leaf surface properties within natural canopies via 3-d reconstruction from stereo images. Our approach includes a semi-automatic selection process of single leaves and different modes of surface characterization via polygon smoothing or surface model fitting. Based on the resulting surface meshes leaf angle statistics are computed on the whole-leaf level or from local derivations. We include a case study to demonstrate the functionality of our software. 48 images of small sugar beet populations (4 varieties) have been analyzed on the base of their leaf angle distribution in order to investigate seasonal, genotypic and fertilization effects on leaf angle distributions. We could show that leaf angle distributions change during the course of the season with all varieties having a comparable development. Additionally, different varieties had different leaf angle orientation that could be separated in principle component analysis. In contrast nitrogen treatment had no effect on leaf angles. We show that a stereo imaging setup together with the

Diachronic changes in word probability distributions in daily press

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Stanković Jelena

2006-01-01

Full Text Available Changes in probability distributions of individual words and word types were investigated within two samples of daily press in the span of fifty years. Two samples of daily press were used in this study. The one derived from the Corpus of Serbian Language (CSL /Kostić, Đ., 2001/ that covers period between 1945. and 1957. and the other derived from the Ebart Media Documentation (EBR that was complied from seven daily news and five weekly magazines from 2002. and 2003. Each sample consisted of about 1 million words. The obtained results indicate that nouns and adjectives were more frequent in the CSL, while verbs and prepositions are more frequent in the EBR sample, suggesting a decrease of sentence length in the last five decades. Conspicuous changes in probability distribution of individual words were observed for nouns and adjectives, while minimal or no changes were observed for verbs and prepositions. Such an outcome suggests that nouns and adjectives are most susceptible to diachronic changes, while verbs and prepositions appear to be resistant to such changes.

Probability distributions in conservative energy exchange models of multiple interacting agents

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Scafetta, Nicola; West, Bruce J

2007-01-01

Herein we study energy exchange models of multiple interacting agents that conserve energy in each interaction. The models differ regarding the rules that regulate the energy exchange and boundary effects. We find a variety of stochastic behaviours that manifest energy equilibrium probability distributions of different types and interaction rules that yield not only the exponential distributions such as the familiar Maxwell-Boltzmann-Gibbs distribution of an elastically colliding ideal particle gas, but also uniform distributions, truncated exponential distributions, Gaussian distributions, Gamma distributions, inverse power law distributions, mixed exponential and inverse power law distributions, and evolving distributions. This wide variety of distributions should be of value in determining the underlying mechanisms generating the statistical properties of complex phenomena including those to be found in complex chemical reactions

Regional probability distribution of the annual reference evapotranspiration and its effective parameters in Iran

Science.gov (United States)

Khanmohammadi, Neda; Rezaie, Hossein; Montaseri, Majid; Behmanesh, Javad

2017-10-01

The reference evapotranspiration (ET0) plays an important role in water management plans in arid or semi-arid countries such as Iran. For this reason, the regional analysis of this parameter is important. But, ET0 process is affected by several meteorological parameters such as wind speed, solar radiation, temperature and relative humidity. Therefore, the effect of distribution type of effective meteorological variables on ET0 distribution was analyzed. For this purpose, the regional probability distribution of the annual ET0 and its effective parameters were selected. Used data in this research was recorded data at 30 synoptic stations of Iran during 1960-2014. Using the probability plot correlation coefficient (PPCC) test and the L-moment method, five common distributions were compared and the best distribution was selected. The results of PPCC test and L-moment diagram indicated that the Pearson type III distribution was the best probability distribution for fitting annual ET0 and its four effective parameters. The results of RMSE showed that the ability of the PPCC test and L-moment method for regional analysis of reference evapotranspiration and its effective parameters was similar. The results also showed that the distribution type of the parameters which affected ET0 values can affect the distribution of reference evapotranspiration.

The joint probability distribution of structure factors incorporating anomalous-scattering and isomorphous-replacement data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Peschar, R.; Schenk, H.

1991-01-01

A method to derive joint probability distributions of structure factors is presented which incorporates anomalous-scattering and isomorphous-replacement data in a unified procedure. The structure factors F H and F -H , whose magnitudes are different due to anomalous scattering, are shown to be isomorphously related. This leads to a definition of isomorphism by means of which isomorphous-replacement and anomalous-scattering data can be handled simultaneously. The definition and calculation of the general term of the joint probability distribution for isomorphous structure factors turns out to be crucial. Its analytical form leads to an algorithm by means of which any particular joint probability distribution of structure factors can be constructed. The calculation of the general term is discussed for the case of four isomorphous structure factors in P1, assuming the atoms to be independently and uniformly distributed. A main result is the construction of the probability distribution of the 64 triplet phase sums present in space group P1 amongst four isomorphous structure factors F H , four isomorphous F K and four isomorphous F -H-K . The procedure is readily generalized in the case where an arbitrary number of isomorphous structure factors are available for F H , F K and F -H-K . (orig.)

INVESTIGATION OF INFLUENCE OF ENCODING FUNCTION COMPLEXITY ON DISTRIBUTION OF ERROR MASKING PROBABILITY

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. B. Levina

2016-03-01

Full Text Available Error detection codes are mechanisms that enable robust delivery of data in unreliable communication channels and devices. Unreliable channels and devices are error-prone objects. Respectively, error detection codes allow detecting such errors. There are two classes of error detecting codes - classical codes and security-oriented codes. The classical codes have high percentage of detected errors; however, they have a high probability to miss an error in algebraic manipulation. In order, security-oriented codes are codes with a small Hamming distance and high protection to algebraic manipulation. The probability of error masking is a fundamental parameter of security-oriented codes. A detailed study of this parameter allows analyzing the behavior of the error-correcting code in the case of error injection in the encoding device. In order, the complexity of the encoding function plays an important role in the security-oriented codes. Encoding functions with less computational complexity and a low probability of masking are the best protection of encoding device against malicious acts. This paper investigates the influence of encoding function complexity on the error masking probability distribution. It will be shownthat the more complex encoding function reduces the maximum of error masking probability. It is also shown in the paper that increasing of the function complexity changes the error masking probability distribution. In particular, increasing of computational complexity decreases the difference between the maximum and average value of the error masking probability. Our resultshave shown that functions with greater complexity have smoothed maximums of error masking probability, which significantly complicates the analysis of error-correcting code by attacker. As a result, in case of complex encoding function the probability of the algebraic manipulation is reduced. The paper discusses an approach how to measure the error masking

Investigating and improving student understanding of the probability distributions for measuring physical observables in quantum mechanics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Marshman, Emily; Singh, Chandralekha

2017-01-01

A solid grasp of the probability distributions for measuring physical observables is central to connecting the quantum formalism to measurements. However, students often struggle with the probability distributions of measurement outcomes for an observable and have difficulty expressing this concept in different representations. Here we first describe the difficulties that upper-level undergraduate and PhD students have with the probability distributions for measuring physical observables in quantum mechanics. We then discuss how student difficulties found in written surveys and individual interviews were used as a guide in the development of a quantum interactive learning tutorial (QuILT) to help students develop a good grasp of the probability distributions of measurement outcomes for physical observables. The QuILT strives to help students become proficient in expressing the probability distributions for the measurement of physical observables in Dirac notation and in the position representation and be able to convert from Dirac notation to position representation and vice versa. We describe the development and evaluation of the QuILT and findings about the effectiveness of the QuILT from in-class evaluations. (paper)

Statistical tests for whether a given set of independent, identically distributed draws comes from a specified probability density.

Science.gov (United States)

Tygert, Mark

2010-09-21

We discuss several tests for determining whether a given set of independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) draws does not come from a specified probability density function. The most commonly used are Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests, particularly Kuiper's variant, which focus on discrepancies between the cumulative distribution function for the specified probability density and the empirical cumulative distribution function for the given set of i.i.d. draws. Unfortunately, variations in the probability density function often get smoothed over in the cumulative distribution function, making it difficult to detect discrepancies in regions where the probability density is small in comparison with its values in surrounding regions. We discuss tests without this deficiency, complementing the classical methods. The tests of the present paper are based on the plain fact that it is unlikely to draw a random number whose probability is small, provided that the draw is taken from the same distribution used in calculating the probability (thus, if we draw a random number whose probability is small, then we can be confident that we did not draw the number from the same distribution used in calculating the probability).

Multimode Interference: Identifying Channels and Ridges in Quantum Probability Distributions

OpenAIRE

O'Connell, Ross C.; Loinaz, Will

2004-01-01

The multimode interference technique is a simple way to study the interference patterns found in many quantum probability distributions. We demonstrate that this analysis not only explains the existence of so-called "quantum carpets," but can explain the spatial distribution of channels and ridges in the carpets. With an understanding of the factors that govern these channels and ridges we have a limited ability to produce a particular pattern of channels and ridges by carefully choosing the ...

Comparision of the different probability distributions for earthquake hazard assessment in the North Anatolian Fault Zone

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yilmaz, Şeyda, E-mail: seydayilmaz@ktu.edu.tr; Bayrak, Erdem, E-mail: erdmbyrk@gmail.com [Karadeniz Technical University, Trabzon (Turkey); Bayrak, Yusuf, E-mail: bayrak@ktu.edu.tr [Ağrı İbrahim Çeçen University, Ağrı (Turkey)

2016-04-18

In this study we examined and compared the three different probabilistic distribution methods for determining the best suitable model in probabilistic assessment of earthquake hazards. We analyzed a reliable homogeneous earthquake catalogue between a time period 1900-2015 for magnitude M ≥ 6.0 and estimated the probabilistic seismic hazard in the North Anatolian Fault zone (39°-41° N 30°-40° E) using three distribution methods namely Weibull distribution, Frechet distribution and three-parameter Weibull distribution. The distribution parameters suitability was evaluated Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K-S) goodness-of-fit test. We also compared the estimated cumulative probability and the conditional probabilities of occurrence of earthquakes for different elapsed time using these three distribution methods. We used Easyfit and Matlab software to calculate these distribution parameters and plotted the conditional probability curves. We concluded that the Weibull distribution method was the most suitable than other distribution methods in this region.

Probability distribution relationships

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yousry Abdelkader

2013-05-01

Full Text Available In this paper, we are interesting to show the most famous distributions and their relations to the other distributions in collected diagrams. Four diagrams are sketched as networks. The first one is concerned to the continuous distributions and their relations. The second one presents the discrete distributions. The third diagram is depicted the famous limiting distributions. Finally, the Balakrishnan skew-normal density and its relationship with the other distributions are shown in the fourth diagram.

The distribution function of a probability measure on a space with a fractal structure

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sanchez-Granero, M.A.; Galvez-Rodriguez, J.F.

2017-07-01

In this work we show how to define a probability measure with the help of a fractal structure. One of the keys of this approach is to use the completion of the fractal structure. Then we use the theory of a cumulative distribution function on a Polish ultrametric space and describe it in this context. Finally, with the help of fractal structures, we prove that a function satisfying the properties of a cumulative distribution function on a Polish ultrametric space is a cumulative distribution function with respect to some probability measure on the space. (Author)

Improved method for estimating particle scattering probabilities to finite detectors for Monte Carlo simulation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mickael, M.; Gardner, R.P.; Verghese, K.

1988-01-01

An improved method for calculating the total probability of particle scattering within the solid angle subtended by finite detectors is developed, presented, and tested. The limiting polar and azimuthal angles subtended by the detector are measured from the direction that most simplifies their calculation rather than from the incident particle direction. A transformation of the particle scattering probability distribution function (pdf) is made to match the transformation of the direction from which the limiting angles are measured. The particle scattering probability to the detector is estimated by evaluating the integral of the transformed pdf over the range of the limiting angles measured from the preferred direction. A general formula for transforming the particle scattering pdf is derived from basic principles and applied to four important scattering pdf's; namely, isotropic scattering in the Lab system, isotropic neutron scattering in the center-of-mass system, thermal neutron scattering by the free gas model, and gamma-ray Klein-Nishina scattering. Some approximations have been made to these pdf's to enable analytical evaluations of the final integrals. These approximations are shown to be valid over a wide range of energies and for most elements. The particle scattering probability to spherical, planar circular, and right circular cylindrical detectors has been calculated using the new and previously reported direct approach. Results indicate that the new approach is valid and is computationally faster by orders of magnitude

Digital simulation of two-dimensional random fields with arbitrary power spectra and non-Gaussian probability distribution functions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Yura, Harold; Hanson, Steen Grüner

2012-01-01

with the desired spectral distribution, after which this colored Gaussian probability distribution is transformed via an inverse transform into the desired probability distribution. In most cases the method provides satisfactory results and can thus be considered an engineering approach. Several illustrative...

On the Meta Distribution of Coverage Probability in Uplink Cellular Networks

KAUST Repository

Elsawy, Hesham; Alouini, Mohamed-Slim

2017-01-01

This letter studies the meta distribution of coverage probability (CP), within a stochastic geometry framework, for cellular uplink transmission with fractional path-loss inversion power control. Using the widely accepted Poisson point process (PPP

The p-sphere and the geometric substratum of power-law probability distributions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vignat, C.; Plastino, A.

2005-01-01

Links between power law probability distributions and marginal distributions of uniform laws on p-spheres in R n show that a mathematical derivation of the Boltzmann-Gibbs distribution necessarily passes through power law ones. Results are also given that link parameters p and n to the value of the non-extensivity parameter q that characterizes these power laws in the context of non-extensive statistics

Landslide Probability Assessment by the Derived Distributions Technique

Science.gov (United States)

Muñoz, E.; Ochoa, A.; Martínez, H.

2012-12-01

Landslides are potentially disastrous events that bring along human and economic losses; especially in cities where an accelerated and unorganized growth leads to settlements on steep and potentially unstable areas. Among the main causes of landslides are geological, geomorphological, geotechnical, climatological, hydrological conditions and anthropic intervention. This paper studies landslides detonated by rain, commonly known as "soil-slip", which characterize by having a superficial failure surface (Typically between 1 and 1.5 m deep) parallel to the slope face and being triggered by intense and/or sustained periods of rain. This type of landslides is caused by changes on the pore pressure produced by a decrease in the suction when a humid front enters, as a consequence of the infiltration initiated by rain and ruled by the hydraulic characteristics of the soil. Failure occurs when this front reaches a critical depth and the shear strength of the soil in not enough to guarantee the stability of the mass. Critical rainfall thresholds in combination with a slope stability model are widely used for assessing landslide probability. In this paper we present a model for the estimation of the occurrence of landslides based on the derived distributions technique. Since the works of Eagleson in the 1970s the derived distributions technique has been widely used in hydrology to estimate the probability of occurrence of extreme flows. The model estimates the probability density function (pdf) of the Factor of Safety (FOS) from the statistical behavior of the rainfall process and some slope parameters. The stochastic character of the rainfall is transformed by means of a deterministic failure model into FOS pdf. Exceedance probability and return period estimation is then straightforward. The rainfall process is modeled as a Rectangular Pulses Poisson Process (RPPP) with independent exponential pdf for mean intensity and duration of the storms. The Philip infiltration model

Digital simulation of two-dimensional random fields with arbitrary power spectra and non-Gaussian probability distribution functions.

Science.gov (United States)

Yura, Harold T; Hanson, Steen G

2012-04-01

Methods for simulation of two-dimensional signals with arbitrary power spectral densities and signal amplitude probability density functions are disclosed. The method relies on initially transforming a white noise sample set of random Gaussian distributed numbers into a corresponding set with the desired spectral distribution, after which this colored Gaussian probability distribution is transformed via an inverse transform into the desired probability distribution. In most cases the method provides satisfactory results and can thus be considered an engineering approach. Several illustrative examples with relevance for optics are given.

Estimating probable flaw distributions in PWR steam generator tubes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gorman, J.A.; Turner, A.P.L.

1997-01-01

This paper describes methods for estimating the number and size distributions of flaws of various types in PWR steam generator tubes. These estimates are needed when calculating the probable primary to secondary leakage through steam generator tubes under postulated accidents such as severe core accidents and steam line breaks. The paper describes methods for two types of predictions: (1) the numbers of tubes with detectable flaws of various types as a function of time, and (2) the distributions in size of these flaws. Results are provided for hypothetical severely affected, moderately affected and lightly affected units. Discussion is provided regarding uncertainties and assumptions in the data and analyses

A measure of mutual divergence among a number of probability distributions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. N. Kapur

1987-01-01

major inequalities due to Shannon, Renyi and Holder. The inequalities are then used to obtain some useful results in information theory. In particular measures are obtained to measure the mutual divergence among two or more probability distributions.

Optimal methods for fitting probability distributions to propagule retention time in studies of zoochorous dispersal.

Science.gov (United States)

Viana, Duarte S; Santamaría, Luis; Figuerola, Jordi

2016-02-01

Propagule retention time is a key factor in determining propagule dispersal distance and the shape of "seed shadows". Propagules dispersed by animal vectors are either ingested and retained in the gut until defecation or attached externally to the body until detachment. Retention time is a continuous variable, but it is commonly measured at discrete time points, according to pre-established sampling time-intervals. Although parametric continuous distributions have been widely fitted to these interval-censored data, the performance of different fitting methods has not been evaluated. To investigate the performance of five different fitting methods, we fitted parametric probability distributions to typical discretized retention-time data with known distribution using as data-points either the lower, mid or upper bounds of sampling intervals, as well as the cumulative distribution of observed values (using either maximum likelihood or non-linear least squares for parameter estimation); then compared the estimated and original distributions to assess the accuracy of each method. We also assessed the robustness of these methods to variations in the sampling procedure (sample size and length of sampling time-intervals). Fittings to the cumulative distribution performed better for all types of parametric distributions (lognormal, gamma and Weibull distributions) and were more robust to variations in sample size and sampling time-intervals. These estimated distributions had negligible deviations of up to 0.045 in cumulative probability of retention times (according to the Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic) in relation to original distributions from which propagule retention time was simulated, supporting the overall accuracy of this fitting method. In contrast, fitting the sampling-interval bounds resulted in greater deviations that ranged from 0.058 to 0.273 in cumulative probability of retention times, which may introduce considerable biases in parameter estimates. We

Outage probability of distributed beamforming with co-channel interference

KAUST Repository

Yang, Liang

2012-03-01

In this letter, we consider a distributed beamforming scheme (DBF) in the presence of equal-power co-channel interferers for both amplify-and-forward and decode-and-forward relaying protocols over Rayleigh fading channels. We first derive outage probability expressions for the DBF systems. We then present a performance analysis for a scheme relying on source selection. Numerical results are finally presented to verify our analysis. © 2011 IEEE.

A transmission probability method for calculation of neutron flux distributions in hexagonal geometry

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wasastjerna, F.; Lux, I.

1980-03-01

A transmission probability method implemented in the program TPHEX is described. This program was developed for the calculation of neutron flux distributions in hexagonal light water reactor fuel assemblies. The accuracy appears to be superior to diffusion theory, and the computation time is shorter than that of the collision probability method. (author)

Effect of EMIC Wave Normal Angle Distribution on Relativistic Electron Scattering in Outer RB

Science.gov (United States)

Khazanov, G. V.; Gamayunov, K. V.

2007-01-01

We present the equatorial and bounce average pitch angle diffusion coefficients for scattering of relativistic electrons by the H+ mode of EMIC waves. Both the model (prescribed) and self consistent distributions over the wave normal angle are considered. The main results of our calculation can be summarized as follows: First, in comparison with field aligned waves, the intermediate and highly oblique waves reduce the pitch angle range subject to diffusion, and strongly suppress the scattering rate for low energy electrons (E less than 2 MeV). Second, for electron energies greater than 5 MeV, the |n| = 1 resonances operate only in a narrow region at large pitch-angles, and despite their greatest contribution in case of field aligned waves, cannot cause electron diffusion into the loss cone. For those energies, oblique waves at |n| greater than 1 resonances are more effective, extending the range of pitch angle diffusion down to the loss cone boundary, and increasing diffusion at small pitch angles by orders of magnitude.

Using a Neural Network Approach to Find Unusual Butterfly Pitch Angle Distribution Shapes

Science.gov (United States)

Medeiros, C.; Sibeck, D. G.; Souza, V. M. C. E. S.; Vieira, L.; Alves, L. R.; Da Silva, L. A.; Kanekal, S. G.; Baker, D. N.

2017-12-01

A special kind of neural network referred to as a Self-Organizing Map (SOM) was previously adopted to identify, in pitch angle-resolved relativistic electron flux data provided by the REPT instrument onboard the Van Allen Probes, three major types of electron pitch angle distributions (PADs), namely 90o-peaked, butterfly and flattop (Souza et al., 2016), following the classification scheme employed by Gannon et al. (2007). Previous studies show that butterfly distribution can be found in more than one shape. They usually exhibit an intense decrease near 90° pitch angles compared to the peaks usually around 30° and 150°. Sometimes unusual butterfly PAD shapes with peaks near 45° and 135° pitch angles can be observed. These could be correlated with different physical processes that govern the production and loss of energetic particles in the Van Allen radiation belt. A neural network approach allows the distinction of different kinds of butterfly PADs which were not analyzed in detail by Souza et al. (2016). This study uses SOM methodology to find these unusual butterfly PAD shape during the interval between January 1, 2014 and October 1, 2015, during which Van Allen Probes orbit covered all MLT. The spatial and temporal occurrence of these events were investigated as well as their solar wind and magnetospheric drivers.

Probability an introduction

CERN Document Server

Goldberg, Samuel

1960-01-01

Excellent basic text covers set theory, probability theory for finite sample spaces, binomial theorem, probability distributions, means, standard deviations, probability function of binomial distribution, more. Includes 360 problems with answers for half.

Statistical study of ion pitch-angle distributions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sibeck, D.G.; Mcentire, R.W.; Lui, A.T.Y.; Krimigis, S.M.

1987-01-01

Preliminary results of a statistical study of energetic (34-50 keV) ion pitch-angle distributions (PADs) within 9 Re of earth provide evidence for an orderly pattern consistent with both drift-shell splitting and magnetopause shadowing. Normal ion PADs dominate the dayside and inner magnetosphere. Butterfly PADs typically occur in a narrow belt stretching from dusk to dawn through midnight, where they approach within 6 Re of earth. While those ion butterfly PADs that typically occur on closed drift paths are mainly caused by drift-shell splitting, there is also evidence for magnetopause shadowing in observations of more frequent butterfly PAD occurrence in the outer magnetosphere near dawn than dusk. Isotropic and gradient boundary PADs terminate the tailward extent of the butterfly ion PAD belt. 9 references

Probabilities of filaments in a Poissonian distribution of points -I

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Betancort-Rijo, J.

1989-01-01

Statistical techniques are devised to assess the likelihood of a Poisson sample of points in two and three dimensions, containing specific filamentary structures. For that purpose, the expression of Otto et al (1986. Astrophys. J., 304) for the probability density of clumps in a Poissonian distribution of points is generalized for any value of the density contrast. A way of counting filaments differing from that of Otto et al. is proposed, because at low density contrast the filaments counted by Otto et al. are distributed in a clumpy fashion, each clump of filaments corresponding to a distinct observed filament. (author)

Signature of non-isotropic distribution of stellar rotation inclination angles in the Praesepe cluster

Science.gov (United States)

Kovacs, Geza

2018-04-01

The distribution of the stellar rotation axes of 113 main sequence stars in the open cluster Praesepe are examined by using current photometric rotation periods, spectroscopic rotation velocities, and estimated stellar radii. Three different samples of stellar rotation data on spotted stars from the Galactic field and two independent samples of planetary hosts are used as control samples to support the consistency of the analysis. Considering the high completeness of the Praesepe sample and the behavior of the control samples, we find that the main sequence F - K stars in this cluster are susceptible to rotational axis alignment. Using a cone model, the most likely inclination angle is 76° ± 14° with a half opening angle of 47° ± 24°. Non-isotropic distribution of the inclination angles is preferred over the isotropic distribution, except if the rotation velocities used in this work are systematically overestimated. We found no indication of this being the case on the basis of the currently available data. Data are only available at the CDS, together with the other two compiled datasets used in this paper, via anonymous ftp to http://cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr (http://130.79.128.5) or via http://cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr/viz-bin/qcat?J/A+A/612/L2

A microcomputer program for energy assessment and aggregation using the triangular probability distribution

Science.gov (United States)

Crovelli, R.A.; Balay, R.H.

1991-01-01

A general risk-analysis method was developed for petroleum-resource assessment and other applications. The triangular probability distribution is used as a model with an analytic aggregation methodology based on probability theory rather than Monte-Carlo simulation. Among the advantages of the analytic method are its computational speed and flexibility, and the saving of time and cost on a microcomputer. The input into the model consists of a set of components (e.g. geologic provinces) and, for each component, three potential resource estimates: minimum, most likely (mode), and maximum. Assuming a triangular probability distribution, the mean, standard deviation, and seven fractiles (F100, F95, F75, F50, F25, F5, and F0) are computed for each component, where for example, the probability of more than F95 is equal to 0.95. The components are aggregated by combining the means, standard deviations, and respective fractiles under three possible siutations (1) perfect positive correlation, (2) complete independence, and (3) any degree of dependence between these two polar situations. A package of computer programs named the TRIAGG system was written in the Turbo Pascal 4.0 language for performing the analytic probabilistic methodology. The system consists of a program for processing triangular probability distribution assessments and aggregations, and a separate aggregation routine for aggregating aggregations. The user's documentation and program diskette of the TRIAGG system are available from USGS Open File Services. TRIAGG requires an IBM-PC/XT/AT compatible microcomputer with 256kbyte of main memory, MS-DOS 3.1 or later, either two diskette drives or a fixed disk, and a 132 column printer. A graphics adapter and color display are optional. ?? 1991.

Idealized models of the joint probability distribution of wind speeds

Science.gov (United States)

Monahan, Adam H.

2018-05-01

The joint probability distribution of wind speeds at two separate locations in space or points in time completely characterizes the statistical dependence of these two quantities, providing more information than linear measures such as correlation. In this study, we consider two models of the joint distribution of wind speeds obtained from idealized models of the dependence structure of the horizontal wind velocity components. The bivariate Rice distribution follows from assuming that the wind components have Gaussian and isotropic fluctuations. The bivariate Weibull distribution arises from power law transformations of wind speeds corresponding to vector components with Gaussian, isotropic, mean-zero variability. Maximum likelihood estimates of these distributions are compared using wind speed data from the mid-troposphere, from different altitudes at the Cabauw tower in the Netherlands, and from scatterometer observations over the sea surface. While the bivariate Rice distribution is more flexible and can represent a broader class of dependence structures, the bivariate Weibull distribution is mathematically simpler and may be more convenient in many applications. The complexity of the mathematical expressions obtained for the joint distributions suggests that the development of explicit functional forms for multivariate speed distributions from distributions of the components will not be practical for more complicated dependence structure or more than two speed variables.

Bayesian Estimator for Angle Recovery: Event Classification and Reconstruction in Positron Emission Tomography

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Foudray, Angela M K; Levin, Craig S

2007-01-01

PET at the highest level is an inverse problem: reconstruct the location of the emission (which localize biological function) from detected photons. Ideally, one would like to directly measure an annihilation photon's incident direction on the detector. In the developed algorithm, Bayesian Estimation for Angle Recovery (BEAR), we utilized the increased information gathered from localizing photon interactions in the detector and developed a Bayesian estimator for a photon's incident direction. Probability distribution functions (PDFs) were filled using an interaction energy weighted mean or center of mass (COM) reference space, which had the following computational advantages: (1) a significant reduction in the size of the data in measurement space, making further manipulation and searches faster (2) the construction of COM space does not depend on measurement location, it takes advantage of measurement symmetries, and data can be added to the training set without knowledge and recalculation of prior training data, (3) calculation of posterior probability map is fully parallelizable, it can scale to any number of processors. These PDFs were used to estimate the point spread function (PSF) in incident angle space for (i) algorithm assessment and (ii) to provide probability selection criteria for classification. The algorithm calculates both the incident θ and φ angle, with ∼16 degrees RMS in both angles, limiting the incoming direction to a narrow cone. Feature size did not improve using the BEAR algorithm as an angle filter, but the contrast ratio improved 40% on average

A Bayesian-probability-based method for assigning protein backbone dihedral angles based on chemical shifts and local sequences

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wang Jun; Liu Haiyan [University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei National Laboratory for Physical Sciences at the Microscale, and Key Laboratory of Structural Biology, School of Life Sciences (China)], E-mail: hyliu@ustc.edu.cn

2007-01-15

Chemical shifts contain substantial information about protein local conformations. We present a method to assign individual protein backbone dihedral angles into specific regions on the Ramachandran map based on the amino acid sequences and the chemical shifts of backbone atoms of tripeptide segments. The method uses a scoring function derived from the Bayesian probability for the central residue of a query tripeptide segment to have a particular conformation. The Ramachandran map is partitioned into representative regions at two levels of resolution. The lower resolution partitioning is equivalent to the conventional definitions of different secondary structure regions on the map. At the higher resolution level, the {alpha} and {beta} regions are further divided into subregions. Predictions are attempted at both levels of resolution. We compared our method with TALOS using the original TALOS database, and obtained comparable results. Although TALOS may produce the best results with currently available databases which are much enlarged, the Bayesian-probability-based approach can provide a quantitative measure for the reliability of predictions.

Energy–angle correlation of neutrons and gamma-rays emitted from an HEU source

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Miloshevsky, G., E-mail: gennady@purdue.edu; Hassanein, A.

2014-06-01

Special Nuclear Materials (SNM) yield very unique fission signatures, namely correlated neutrons and gamma-rays. A major challenge is not only to detect, but also to rapidly identify and recognize SNM with certainty. Accounting for particle multiplicity and correlations is one of standard ways to detect SNM. However, many parameter data such as joint distributions of energy, angle, lifetime, and multiplicity of neutrons and gamma-rays can lead to better recognition of SNM signatures in the background radiation noise. These joint distributions are not well understood. The Monte Carlo simulations of the transport of neutrons and gamma-rays produced from spontaneous and interrogation-induced fission of SNM are carried out using the developed MONSOL computer code. The energy spectra of neutrons and gamma-rays from a bare Highly Enriched Uranium (HEU) source are investigated. The energy spectrum of gamma-rays shows spectral lines by which HEU isotopes can be identified, while those of neutrons do not show any characteristic lines. The joint probability density function (JPDF) of the energy–angle association of neutrons and gamma-rays is constructed. Marginal probability density functions (MPDFs) of energy and angle are derived from JPDF. A probabilistic model is developed for the analysis of JPDF and MPDFs. This probabilistic model is used to evaluate mean values, standard deviations, covariance and correlation between the energy and angle of neutrons and gamma-rays emitted from the HEU source. For both neutrons and gamma-rays, it is found that the energy–angle variables are only weakly correlated.

Probability distribution functions of turbulence in seepage-affected alluvial channel

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sharma, Anurag; Kumar, Bimlesh, E-mail: anurag.sharma@iitg.ac.in, E-mail: bimk@iitg.ac.in [Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Guwahati, 781039 (India)

2017-02-15

The present experimental study is carried out on the probability distribution functions (PDFs) of turbulent flow characteristics within near-bed-surface and away-from-bed surfaces for both no seepage and seepage flow. Laboratory experiments were conducted in the plane sand bed for no seepage (NS), 10% seepage (10%S) and 15% seepage (15%) cases. The experimental calculation of the PDFs of turbulent parameters such as Reynolds shear stress, velocity fluctuations, and bursting events is compared with theoretical expression obtained by Gram–Charlier (GC)-based exponential distribution. Experimental observations follow the computed PDF distributions for both no seepage and seepage cases. Jensen-Shannon divergence (JSD) method is used to measure the similarity between theoretical and experimental PDFs. The value of JSD for PDFs of velocity fluctuation lies between 0.0005 to 0.003 while the JSD value for PDFs of Reynolds shear stress varies between 0.001 to 0.006. Even with the application of seepage, the PDF distribution of bursting events, sweeps and ejections are well characterized by the exponential distribution of the GC series, except that a slight deflection of inward and outward interactions is observed which may be due to weaker events. The value of JSD for outward and inward interactions ranges from 0.0013 to 0.032, while the JSD value for sweep and ejection events varies between 0.0001 to 0.0025. The theoretical expression for the PDF of turbulent intensity is developed in the present study, which agrees well with the experimental observations and JSD lies between 0.007 and 0.015. The work presented is potentially applicable to the probability distribution of mobile-bed sediments in seepage-affected alluvial channels typically characterized by the various turbulent parameters. The purpose of PDF estimation from experimental data is that it provides a complete numerical description in the areas of turbulent flow either at a single or finite number of points

Parametric Probability Distribution Functions for Axon Diameters of Corpus Callosum

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Farshid eSepehrband

2016-05-01

Full Text Available Axon diameter is an important neuroanatomical characteristic of the nervous system that alters in the course of neurological disorders such as multiple sclerosis. Axon diameters vary, even within a fiber bundle, and are not normally distributed. An accurate distribution function is therefore beneficial, either to describe axon diameters that are obtained from a direct measurement technique (e.g., microscopy, or to infer them indirectly (e.g., using diffusion-weighted MRI. The gamma distribution is a common choice for this purpose (particularly for the inferential approach because it resembles the distribution profile of measured axon diameters which has been consistently shown to be non-negative and right-skewed. In this study we compared a wide range of parametric probability distribution functions against empirical data obtained from electron microscopy images. We observed that the gamma distribution fails to accurately describe the main characteristics of the axon diameter distribution, such as location and scale of the mode and the profile of distribution tails. We also found that the generalized extreme value distribution consistently fitted the measured distribution better than other distribution functions. This suggests that there may be distinct subpopulations of axons in the corpus callosum, each with their own distribution profiles. In addition, we observed that several other distributions outperformed the gamma distribution, yet had the same number of unknown parameters; these were the inverse Gaussian, log normal, log logistic and Birnbaum-Saunders distributions.

Universal Probability Distribution Function for Bursty Transport in Plasma Turbulence

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sandberg, I.; Benkadda, S.; Garbet, X.; Ropokis, G.; Hizanidis, K.; Castillo-Negrete, D. del

2009-01-01

Bursty transport phenomena associated with convective motion present universal statistical characteristics among different physical systems. In this Letter, a stochastic univariate model and the associated probability distribution function for the description of bursty transport in plasma turbulence is presented. The proposed stochastic process recovers the universal distribution of density fluctuations observed in plasma edge of several magnetic confinement devices and the remarkable scaling between their skewness S and kurtosis K. Similar statistical characteristics of variabilities have been also observed in other physical systems that are characterized by convection such as the x-ray fluctuations emitted by the Cygnus X-1 accretion disc plasmas and the sea surface temperature fluctuations.

Non-Gaussian probability distributions of solar wind fluctuations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

E. Marsch

Full Text Available The probability distributions of field differences ∆x(τ=x(t+τ-x(t, where the variable x(t may denote any solar wind scalar field or vector field component at time t, have been calculated from time series of Helios data obtained in 1976 at heliocentric distances near 0.3 AU. It is found that for comparatively long time lag τ, ranging from a few hours to 1 day, the differences are normally distributed according to a Gaussian. For shorter time lags, of less than ten minutes, significant changes in shape are observed. The distributions are often spikier and narrower than the equivalent Gaussian distribution with the same standard deviation, and they are enhanced for large, reduced for intermediate and enhanced for very small values of ∆x. This result is in accordance with fluid observations and numerical simulations. Hence statistical properties are dominated at small scale τ by large fluctuation amplitudes that are sparsely distributed, which is direct evidence for spatial intermittency of the fluctuations. This is in agreement with results from earlier analyses of the structure functions of ∆x. The non-Gaussian features are differently developed for the various types of fluctuations. The relevance of these observations to the interpretation and understanding of the nature of solar wind magnetohydrodynamic (MHD turbulence is pointed out, and contact is made with existing theoretical concepts of intermittency in fluid turbulence.

Effects of translation-rotation coupling on the displacement probability distribution functions of boomerang colloidal particles

Science.gov (United States)

Chakrabarty, Ayan; Wang, Feng; Sun, Kai; Wei, Qi-Huo

Prior studies have shown that low symmetry particles such as micro-boomerangs exhibit behaviour of Brownian motion rather different from that of high symmetry particles because convenient tracking points (TPs) are usually inconsistent with the center of hydrodynamic stress (CoH) where the translational and rotational motions are decoupled. In this paper we study the effects of the translation-rotation coupling on the displacement probability distribution functions (PDFs) of the boomerang colloid particles with symmetric arms. By tracking the motions of different points on the particle symmetry axis, we show that as the distance between the TP and the CoH is increased, the effects of translation-rotation coupling becomes pronounced, making the short-time 2D PDF for fixed initial orientation to change from elliptical to crescent shape and the angle averaged PDFs from ellipsoidal-particle-like PDF to a shape with a Gaussian top and long displacement tails. We also observed that at long times the PDFs revert to Gaussian. This crescent shape of 2D PDF provides a clear physical picture of the non-zero mean displacements observed in boomerangs particles.

Count data, detection probabilities, and the demography, dynamics, distribution, and decline of amphibians.

Science.gov (United States)

Schmidt, Benedikt R

2003-08-01

The evidence for amphibian population declines is based on count data that were not adjusted for detection probabilities. Such data are not reliable even when collected using standard methods. The formula C = Np (where C is a count, N the true parameter value, and p is a detection probability) relates count data to demography, population size, or distributions. With unadjusted count data, one assumes a linear relationship between C and N and that p is constant. These assumptions are unlikely to be met in studies of amphibian populations. Amphibian population data should be based on methods that account for detection probabilities.

Introduction to probability with Mathematica

CERN Document Server

Hastings, Kevin J

2009-01-01

Discrete ProbabilityThe Cast of Characters Properties of Probability Simulation Random SamplingConditional ProbabilityIndependenceDiscrete DistributionsDiscrete Random Variables, Distributions, and ExpectationsBernoulli and Binomial Random VariablesGeometric and Negative Binomial Random Variables Poisson DistributionJoint, Marginal, and Conditional Distributions More on ExpectationContinuous ProbabilityFrom the Finite to the (Very) Infinite Continuous Random Variables and DistributionsContinuous ExpectationContinuous DistributionsThe Normal Distribution Bivariate Normal DistributionNew Random Variables from OldOrder Statistics Gamma DistributionsChi-Square, Student's t, and F-DistributionsTransformations of Normal Random VariablesAsymptotic TheoryStrong and Weak Laws of Large Numbers Central Limit TheoremStochastic Processes and ApplicationsMarkov ChainsPoisson Processes QueuesBrownian MotionFinancial MathematicsAppendixIntroduction to Mathematica Glossary of Mathematica Commands for Probability Short Answers...

Extreme points of the convex set of joint probability distributions with ...

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

Here we address the following problem: If G is a standard ... convex set of all joint probability distributions on the product Borel space (X1 ×X2, F1 ⊗. F2) which .... cannot be identically zero when X and Y vary in A1 and u and v vary in H2. Thus.

Flux-probability distributions from the master equation for radiation transport in stochastic media

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Franke, Brian C.; Prinja, Anil K.

2011-01-01

We present numerical investigations into the accuracy of approximations in the master equation for radiation transport in discrete binary random media. Our solutions of the master equation yield probability distributions of particle flux at each element of phase space. We employ the Levermore-Pomraning interface closure and evaluate the effectiveness of closures for the joint conditional flux distribution for estimating scattering integrals. We propose a parameterized model for this joint-pdf closure, varying between correlation neglect and a full-correlation model. The closure is evaluated for a variety of parameter settings. Comparisons are made with benchmark results obtained through suites of fixed-geometry realizations of random media in rod problems. All calculations are performed using Monte Carlo techniques. Accuracy of the approximations in the master equation is assessed by examining the probability distributions for reflection and transmission and by evaluating the moments of the pdfs. The results suggest the correlation-neglect setting in our model performs best and shows improved agreement in the atomic-mix limit. (author)

THE EFFECTS OF VIEWING ANGLE ON THE MASS DISTRIBUTION OF EXOPLANETS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lopez, S.; Jenkins, J. S.

2012-01-01

We present a mathematical method to statistically decouple the effects of unknown inclination angles on the mass distribution of exoplanets that have been discovered using radial-velocity (RV) techniques. The method is based on the distribution of the product of two random variables. Thus, if one assumes a true mass distribution, the method makes it possible to recover the observed distribution. We compare our prediction with available RV data. Assuming that the true mass function is described by a power law, the minimum mass function that we recover proves a good fit to the observed distribution at both mass ends. In particular, it provides an alternative explanation for the observed low-mass decline, usually explained as sample incompleteness. In addition, the peak observed near the low-mass end arises naturally in the predicted distribution as a consequence of imposing a low-mass cutoff in the true distribution. If the low-mass bins below 0.02 M J are complete, then the mass distribution in this regime is heavily affected by the small fraction of lowly inclined interlopers that are actually more massive companions. Finally, we also present evidence that the exoplanet mass distribution changes form toward low mass, implying that a single power law may not adequately describe the sample population.

A method for the calculation of the cumulative failure probability distribution of complex repairable systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Caldarola, L.

1976-01-01

A method is proposed for the analytical evaluation of the cumulative failure probability distribution of complex repairable systems. The method is based on a set of integral equations each one referring to a specific minimal cut set of the system. Each integral equation links the unavailability of a minimal cut set to its failure probability density distribution and to the probability that the minimal cut set is down at the time t under the condition that it was down at time t'(t'<=t). The limitations for the applicability of the method are also discussed. It has been concluded that the method is applicable if the process describing the failure of a minimal cut set is a 'delayed semi-regenerative process'. (Auth.)

The force distribution probability function for simple fluids by density functional theory.

Science.gov (United States)

Rickayzen, G; Heyes, D M

2013-02-28

Classical density functional theory (DFT) is used to derive a formula for the probability density distribution function, P(F), and probability distribution function, W(F), for simple fluids, where F is the net force on a particle. The final formula for P(F) ∝ exp(-AF(2)), where A depends on the fluid density, the temperature, and the Fourier transform of the pair potential. The form of the DFT theory used is only applicable to bounded potential fluids. When combined with the hypernetted chain closure of the Ornstein-Zernike equation, the DFT theory for W(F) agrees with molecular dynamics computer simulations for the Gaussian and bounded soft sphere at high density. The Gaussian form for P(F) is still accurate at lower densities (but not too low density) for the two potentials, but with a smaller value for the constant, A, than that predicted by the DFT theory.

Application of the Unbounded Probability Distribution of the Johnson System for Floods Estimation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Campos-Aranda Daniel Francisco

2015-09-01

Full Text Available Floods designs constitute a key to estimate the sizing of new water works and to review the hydrological security of existing ones. The most reliable method for estimating their magnitudes associated with certain return periods is to fit a probabilistic model to available records of maximum annual flows. Since such model is at first unknown, several models need to be tested in order to select the most appropriate one according to an arbitrary statistical index, commonly the standard error of fit. Several probability distributions have shown versatility and consistency of results when processing floods records and therefore, its application has been established as a norm or precept. The Johnson System has three families of distributions, one of which is the Log–Normal model with three parameters of fit, which is also the border between the bounded distributions and those with no upper limit. These families of distributions have four adjustment parameters and converge to the standard normal distribution, so that their predictions are obtained with such a model. Having contrasted the three probability distributions established by precept in 31 historical records of hydrological events, the Johnson system is applied to such data. The results of the unbounded distribution of the Johnson system (SJU are compared to the optimal results from the three distributions. It was found that the predictions of the SJU distribution are similar to those obtained with the other models in the low return periods ( 1000 years. Because of its theoretical support, the SJU model is recommended in flood estimation.

Rocket measurements of relativistic electrons: New features in fluxes, spectra and pitch angle distributions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Herrero, F.A.; Baker, D.N.; Goldberg, R.A.

1991-01-01

The authors report new features of precipitating relativistic electron fluxes measured on a spinning sounding rocket payload at midday between altitudes of 70 and 130 km in the auroral region (Poker Flat, Alaska, 65.1 degree N, 147.5 degree W, and L = 5.5). The sounding rocket (NASA 33.059) was launched at 21:29 UT on May 13, 1990 during a relativistic electron enhancement event of modest intensity. Electron fluxes were measured for a total of about 210 seconds at energies from 0.1 to 3.8 MeV, while pitch angle was sampled from 0 degree to 90 degree every spin cycle. Flux levels during the initial 90 seconds were about 5 to 8 times higher than in the next 120 seconds, revealing a time scale of more than 100 seconds for large amplitude intensity variations. A shorter time scale appeared for downward electron bursts lasting 10 to 20 seconds. Electrons with energies below about 0.2 MeV showed isotropic pitch angle distributions during most of the first 90 seconds of data, while at higher energies the electrons had highest fluxes near the mirroring angle (90 degree); when they occurred, the noted downward bursts were seen at all energies. Data obtained during the second half of the flight showed little variation in the shape of the pitch angle distribution for energies greater than 0.5 MeV; the flux at 90 degree was about 100 times the flux at 0 degree. They have compared the low altitude fluxes with those measured at geostationary orbit (L = 6.6), and find that the low altitude fluxes are much higher than expected from a simple mapping of a pancake distribution at high altitudes (at the equator). Energy deposition of this modest event is estimated to increase rapidly above 45 km, already exceeding the cosmic ray background at 45 km

Joint probability distributions and fluctuation theorems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

García-García, Reinaldo; Kolton, Alejandro B; Domínguez, Daniel; Lecomte, Vivien

2012-01-01

We derive various exact results for Markovian systems that spontaneously relax to a non-equilibrium steady state by using joint probability distribution symmetries of different entropy production decompositions. The analytical approach is applied to diverse problems such as the description of the fluctuations induced by experimental errors, for unveiling symmetries of correlation functions appearing in fluctuation–dissipation relations recently generalized to non-equilibrium steady states, and also for mapping averages between different trajectory-based dynamical ensembles. Many known fluctuation theorems arise as special instances of our approach for particular twofold decompositions of the total entropy production. As a complement, we also briefly review and synthesize the variety of fluctuation theorems applying to stochastic dynamics of both continuous systems described by a Langevin dynamics and discrete systems obeying a Markov dynamics, emphasizing how these results emerge from distinct symmetries of the dynamical entropy of the trajectory followed by the system. For Langevin dynamics, we embed the 'dual dynamics' with a physical meaning, and for Markov systems we show how the fluctuation theorems translate into symmetries of modified evolution operators

THREE-MOMENT BASED APPROXIMATION OF PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS IN QUEUEING SYSTEMS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

T. I. Aliev

2014-03-01

Full Text Available The paper deals with the problem of approximation of probability distributions of random variables defined in positive area of real numbers with coefficient of variation different from unity. While using queueing systems as models for computer networks, calculation of characteristics is usually performed at the level of expectation and variance. At the same time, one of the main characteristics of multimedia data transmission quality in computer networks is delay jitter. For jitter calculation the function of packets time delay distribution should be known. It is shown that changing the third moment of distribution of packets delay leads to jitter calculation difference in tens or hundreds of percent, with the same values of the first two moments – expectation value and delay variation coefficient. This means that delay distribution approximation for the calculation of jitter should be performed in accordance with the third moment of delay distribution. For random variables with coefficients of variation greater than unity, iterative approximation algorithm with hyper-exponential two-phase distribution based on three moments of approximated distribution is offered. It is shown that for random variables with coefficients of variation less than unity, the impact of the third moment of distribution becomes negligible, and for approximation of such distributions Erlang distribution with two first moments should be used. This approach gives the possibility to obtain upper bounds for relevant characteristics, particularly, the upper bound of delay jitter.

Quantile selection procedure and assoiated distribution of ratios of order statistics from a restricted family of probability distributions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gupta, S.S.; Panchapakesan, S.

1975-01-01

A quantile selection procedure in reliability problems pertaining to a restricted family of probability distributions is discussed. This family is assumed to be star-ordered with respect to the standard normal distribution folded at the origin. Motivation for this formulation of the problem is described. Both exact and asymptotic results dealing with the distribution of the maximum of ratios of order statistics from such a family are obtained and tables of the appropriate constants, percentiles of this statistic, are given in order to facilitate the use of the selection procedure

Impact of foot progression angle on the distribution of plantar pressure in normal children.

Science.gov (United States)

Lai, Yu-Cheng; Lin, Huey-Shyan; Pan, Hui-Fen; Chang, Wei-Ning; Hsu, Chien-Jen; Renn, Jenn-Huei

2014-02-01

Plantar pressure distribution during walking is affected by several gait factors, most especially the foot progression angle which has been studied in children with neuromuscular diseases. However, this relationship in normal children has only been reported in limited studies. The purpose of this study is to clarify the correlation between foot progression angle and plantar pressure distribution in normal children, as well as the impacts of age and sex on this correlation. This study retrospectively reviewed dynamic pedobarographic data that were included in the gait laboratory database of our institution. In total, 77 normally developed children aged 5-16 years who were treated between 2004 and 2009 were included. Each child's footprint was divided into 5 segments: lateral forefoot, medial forefoot, lateral midfoot, medial midfoot, and heel. The percentages of impulse exerted at the medial foot, forefoot, midfoot, and heel were calculated. The average foot progression angle was 5.03° toe-out. Most of the total impulse was exerted on the forefoot (52.0%). Toe-out gait was positively correlated with high medial (r = 0.274; P plantar pressure as part of the treatment of various foot pathologies. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The probability distribution of intergranular stress corrosion cracking life for sensitized 304 stainless steels in high temperature, high purity water

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Akashi, Masatsune; Kenjyo, Takao; Matsukura, Shinji; Kawamoto, Teruaki

1984-01-01

In order to discuss the probability distribution of intergranular stress corrsion carcking life for sensitized 304 stainless steels, a series of the creviced bent beem (CBB) and the uni-axial constant load tests were carried out in oxygenated high temperature, high purity water. The following concludions were resulted; (1) The initiation process of intergranular stress corrosion cracking has been assumed to be approximated by the Poisson stochastic process, based on the CBB test results. (2) The probability distribution of intergranular stress corrosion cracking life may consequently be approximated by the exponential probability distribution. (3) The experimental data could be fitted to the exponential probability distribution. (author)

Transient Properties of Probability Distribution for a Markov Process with Size-dependent Additive Noise

Science.gov (United States)

Yamada, Yuhei; Yamazaki, Yoshihiro

2018-04-01

This study considered a stochastic model for cluster growth in a Markov process with a cluster size dependent additive noise. According to this model, the probability distribution of the cluster size transiently becomes an exponential or a log-normal distribution depending on the initial condition of the growth. In this letter, a master equation is obtained for this model, and derivation of the distributions is discussed.

Atom and carrier depth distributions for 300 keV arsenic channeled in the of silicon as a function of alignment angle and ion fluence

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wilson, R.G.

1980-01-01

Depth distributions of As atoms measured by SIMS, and of associated carriers measured by differential C-V, both give a measured most probable channeling range Rsub(c) of 3.35 to 3.40 μm for 300 keV As ions implanted in the of Si, aligned within approximately 0.05 deg (proper or axial channeling). The As ion fluences used were 3.0 x 10 13 and 1.0 x 10 14 , and 1.5 x 10 12 cm -2 , for the SIMS and C-V, respectively, and the lowest atom and carrier densities measured in the profiles were 1 x 10 15 and 1 x 10 14 cm -3 , respectively. The maximum or saturated As density measured at Rsub(c) was approximately 1.5 x 10 16 cm -3 . The depth distribution for 0.50 deg misalignment from the differed only slightly, probably within the experimental measurement reproducibility, and the Rsub(c) was still approximately 3.4 μm. Atom and carrier depth distributions are also shown for misalignment angles of 1.0 and 2.0 deg from the of Si and are significantly degraded. Comparison of the SIMS profiles shows that channeling has saturated by the time an ion fluence of 3 x 10 13 cm -2 is reached. No significant redistribution of channeled As atoms occurs upon annealing at 800 0 C for 30 min. (author)

On the issues of probability distribution of GPS carrier phase observations

Science.gov (United States)

Luo, X.; Mayer, M.; Heck, B.

2009-04-01

In common practice the observables related to Global Positioning System (GPS) are assumed to follow a Gauss-Laplace normal distribution. Actually, full knowledge of the observables' distribution is not required for parameter estimation by means of the least-squares algorithm based on the functional relation between observations and unknown parameters as well as the associated variance-covariance matrix. However, the probability distribution of GPS observations plays a key role in procedures for quality control (e.g. outlier and cycle slips detection, ambiguity resolution) and in reliability-related assessments of the estimation results. Under non-ideal observation conditions with respect to the factors impacting GPS data quality, for example multipath effects and atmospheric delays, the validity of the normal distribution postulate of GPS observations is in doubt. This paper presents a detailed analysis of the distribution properties of GPS carrier phase observations using double difference residuals. For this purpose 1-Hz observation data from the permanent SAPOS

Geometrically distributed one-dimensional photonic crystals for light-reflection in all angles.

Science.gov (United States)

Alagappan, G; Wu, P

2009-07-06

We demonstrate that a series of one-dimensional photonic crystals made of any dielectric materials, with the periods are distributed in a geometrical progression of a common ratio, r rc (theta,P), where rc is a structural parameter that depends on the angle of incidence, theta, and polarization, P, is capable of blocking light of any spectral range. If an omni-directional reflection is desired for all polarizations and for all incident angles smaller than thetao, then r rc (theta(o),p), where p is the polarization with the electric field parallel to the plane of incidence. We present simple and formula like expressions for rc, width of the bandgap, and minimum number of photonic crystals to achieve a perfect light reflection.

Effect of EMIC Wave Normal Angle Distribution on Relativistic Electron Scattering

Science.gov (United States)

Gamayunov, K. V.; Khazanov, G. V.

2006-01-01

calculate the pitch-angle diffusion coefficients using the typical wave normal distributions obtained from our self-consistent ring current-EMIC wave model, and try to quantify the effect of EMIC wave normal angle characteristics on relativistic electron scattering.

Qualitative numerical studies of the modification of the pitch angle distribution of test particles by alfvènic wave activity

Science.gov (United States)

Keilbach, D.; Drews, C.; Berger, L.; Marsch, E.; Wimmer-Schweingruber, R. F.

2017-12-01

Using a test particle approach we have investigated, how an oxygen pickup ion torus velocity distribution is modified by continuous and intermittent alfvènic waves on timescales, where the gyro trajectory of each particle can be traced.We have therefore exposed the test particles to mono frequent waves, which expanded through the whole simulation in time and space. The general behavior of the pitch angle distribution is found to be stationary and a nonlinear function of the wave frequency, amplitude and the initial angle between wave elongation and field-perpendicular particle velocity vector. The figure shows the time-averaged pitch angle distributions as a function of the Doppler shifted wave frequency (where the Doppler shift was calculated with respect to the particles initial velocity) for three different wave amplitudes (labeled in each panel). The background field is chosen to be 5 nT and the 500 test particles were initially distributed on a torus with 120° pitch angle at a solar wind velocity of 450 km/s. Each y-slice of the histogram (which has been normalized to it's respective maximum) represents an individual run of the simulation.The frequency-dependent behavior of the test particles is found to be classifiable into the regimes of very low/high frequencies and frequencies close to first order resonance. We have found, that only in the latter regime the particles interact strongly with the wave, where in the time averaged histograms a branch structure is found, which was identified as a trace of particles co-moving with the wave phase. The magnitude of pitch angle change of these particles is as well as the frequency margin, where the branch structure is found, an increasing function with the wave amplitude.We have also investigated the interaction with mono frequent intermittent waves. Exposed to such waves a torus distribution is scattered in pitch angle space, whereas the pitch angle distribution is broadened systematically over time similar to

Exact solutions and symmetry analysis for the limiting probability distribution of quantum walks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Xu, Xin-Ping; Ide, Yusuke

2016-01-01

In the literature, there are numerous studies of one-dimensional discrete-time quantum walks (DTQWs) using a moving shift operator. However, there is no exact solution for the limiting probability distributions of DTQWs on cycles using a general coin or swapping shift operator. In this paper, we derive exact solutions for the limiting probability distribution of quantum walks using a general coin and swapping shift operator on cycles for the first time. Based on the exact solutions, we show how to generate symmetric quantum walks and determine the condition under which a symmetric quantum walk appears. Our results suggest that choosing various coin and initial state parameters can achieve a symmetric quantum walk. By defining a quantity to measure the variation of symmetry, deviation and mixing time of symmetric quantum walks are also investigated.

Exact solutions and symmetry analysis for the limiting probability distribution of quantum walks

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Xu, Xin-Ping, E-mail: xuxp@mail.ihep.ac.cn [School of Physical Science and Technology, Soochow University, Suzhou 215006 (China); Ide, Yusuke [Department of Information Systems Creation, Faculty of Engineering, Kanagawa University, Yokohama, Kanagawa, 221-8686 (Japan)

2016-10-15

In the literature, there are numerous studies of one-dimensional discrete-time quantum walks (DTQWs) using a moving shift operator. However, there is no exact solution for the limiting probability distributions of DTQWs on cycles using a general coin or swapping shift operator. In this paper, we derive exact solutions for the limiting probability distribution of quantum walks using a general coin and swapping shift operator on cycles for the first time. Based on the exact solutions, we show how to generate symmetric quantum walks and determine the condition under which a symmetric quantum walk appears. Our results suggest that choosing various coin and initial state parameters can achieve a symmetric quantum walk. By defining a quantity to measure the variation of symmetry, deviation and mixing time of symmetric quantum walks are also investigated.

Examining barrier distributions and, in extension, energy derivative of probabilities for surrogate experiments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Romain, P.; Duarte, H.; Morillon, B.

2012-01-01

The energy derivatives of probabilities are functions suited to a best understanding of certain mechanisms. Applied to compound nuclear reactions, they can bring information on fusion barrier distributions as originally introduced, and also, as presented here, on fission barrier distributions and heights. Extendedly, they permit to access the compound nucleus spin-parity states preferentially populated according to an entrance channel, at a given energy. (authors)

A least squares approach to estimating the probability distribution of unobserved data in multiphoton microscopy

Science.gov (United States)

Salama, Paul

2008-02-01

Multi-photon microscopy has provided biologists with unprecedented opportunities for high resolution imaging deep into tissues. Unfortunately deep tissue multi-photon microscopy images are in general noisy since they are acquired at low photon counts. To aid in the analysis and segmentation of such images it is sometimes necessary to initially enhance the acquired images. One way to enhance an image is to find the maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimate of each pixel comprising an image, which is achieved by finding a constrained least squares estimate of the unknown distribution. In arriving at the distribution it is assumed that the noise is Poisson distributed, the true but unknown pixel values assume a probability mass function over a finite set of non-negative values, and since the observed data also assumes finite values because of low photon counts, the sum of the probabilities of the observed pixel values (obtained from the histogram of the acquired pixel values) is less than one. Experimental results demonstrate that it is possible to closely estimate the unknown probability mass function with these assumptions.

Probability distribution for the Gaussian curvature of the zero level surface of a random function

Science.gov (United States)

Hannay, J. H.

2018-04-01

A rather natural construction for a smooth random surface in space is the level surface of value zero, or ‘nodal’ surface f(x,y,z)  =  0, of a (real) random function f; the interface between positive and negative regions of the function. A physically significant local attribute at a point of a curved surface is its Gaussian curvature (the product of its principal curvatures) because, when integrated over the surface it gives the Euler characteristic. Here the probability distribution for the Gaussian curvature at a random point on the nodal surface f  =  0 is calculated for a statistically homogeneous (‘stationary’) and isotropic zero mean Gaussian random function f. Capitalizing on the isotropy, a ‘fixer’ device for axes supplies the probability distribution directly as a multiple integral. Its evaluation yields an explicit algebraic function with a simple average. Indeed, this average Gaussian curvature has long been known. For a non-zero level surface instead of the nodal one, the probability distribution is not fully tractable, but is supplied as an integral expression.

Investigation of photon detection probability dependence of SPADnet-I digital photon counter as a function of angle of incidence, wavelength and polarization

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Játékos, Balázs, E-mail: jatekosb@eik.bme.hu; Ujhelyi, Ferenc; Lőrincz, Emőke; Erdei, Gábor

2015-01-01

SPADnet-I is a prototype, fully digital, high spatial and temporal resolution silicon photon counter, based on standard CMOS imaging technology, developed by the SPADnet consortium. Being a novel device, the exact dependence of photon detection probability (PDP) of SPADnet-I was not known as a function of angle of incidence, wavelength and polarization of the incident light. Our targeted application area of this sensor is next generation PET detector modules, where they will be used along with LYSO:Ce scintillators. Hence, we performed an extended investigation of PDP in a wide range of angle of incidence (0° to 80°), concentrating onto a 60 nm broad wavelength interval around the characteristic emission peak (λ=420 nm) of the scintillator. In the case where the sensor was optically coupled to a scintillator, our experiments showed a notable dependence of PDP on angle, polarization and wavelength. The sensor has an average PDP of approximately 30% from 0° to 60° angle of incidence, where it starts to drop rapidly. The PDP turned out not to be polarization dependent below 30°. If the sensor is used without a scintillator (i.e. the light source is in air), the polarization dependence is much less expressed, it begins only from 50°.

The Impact of an Instructional Intervention Designed to Support Development of Stochastic Understanding of Probability Distribution

Science.gov (United States)

Conant, Darcy Lynn

2013-01-01

Stochastic understanding of probability distribution undergirds development of conceptual connections between probability and statistics and supports development of a principled understanding of statistical inference. This study investigated the impact of an instructional course intervention designed to support development of stochastic…

A Bernstein-Von Mises Theorem for discrete probability distributions

OpenAIRE

Boucheron, S.; Gassiat, E.

2008-01-01

We investigate the asymptotic normality of the posterior distribution in the discrete setting, when model dimension increases with sample size. We consider a probability mass function θ0 on ℕ∖{0} and a sequence of truncation levels (kn)n satisfying kn3≤ninf i≤knθ0(i). Let θ̂ denote the maximum likelihood estimate of (θ0(i))i≤kn and let Δn(θ0) denote the kn-dimensional vector which i-th coordinate is defined by $\\sqrt{n}(\\hat{\\theta}_{n}(i)-\\theta_{0}(i))$ for 1≤i≤kn. We check that under mild ...

Characterizing single-molecule FRET dynamics with probability distribution analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Santoso, Yusdi; Torella, Joseph P; Kapanidis, Achillefs N

2010-07-12

Probability distribution analysis (PDA) is a recently developed statistical tool for predicting the shapes of single-molecule fluorescence resonance energy transfer (smFRET) histograms, which allows the identification of single or multiple static molecular species within a single histogram. We used a generalized PDA method to predict the shapes of FRET histograms for molecules interconverting dynamically between multiple states. This method is tested on a series of model systems, including both static DNA fragments and dynamic DNA hairpins. By fitting the shape of this expected distribution to experimental data, the timescale of hairpin conformational fluctuations can be recovered, in good agreement with earlier published results obtained using different techniques. This method is also applied to studying the conformational fluctuations in the unliganded Klenow fragment (KF) of Escherichia coli DNA polymerase I, which allows both confirmation of the consistency of a simple, two-state kinetic model with the observed smFRET distribution of unliganded KF and extraction of a millisecond fluctuation timescale, in good agreement with rates reported elsewhere. We expect this method to be useful in extracting rates from processes exhibiting dynamic FRET, and in hypothesis-testing models of conformational dynamics against experimental data.

Probability and stochastic modeling

CERN Document Server

Rotar, Vladimir I

2012-01-01

Basic NotionsSample Space and EventsProbabilitiesCounting TechniquesIndependence and Conditional ProbabilityIndependenceConditioningThe Borel-Cantelli TheoremDiscrete Random VariablesRandom Variables and VectorsExpected ValueVariance and Other Moments. Inequalities for DeviationsSome Basic DistributionsConvergence of Random Variables. The Law of Large NumbersConditional ExpectationGenerating Functions. Branching Processes. Random Walk RevisitedBranching Processes Generating Functions Branching Processes Revisited More on Random WalkMarkov ChainsDefinitions and Examples. Probability Distributions of Markov ChainsThe First Step Analysis. Passage TimesVariables Defined on a Markov ChainErgodicity and Stationary DistributionsA Classification of States and ErgodicityContinuous Random VariablesContinuous DistributionsSome Basic Distributions Continuous Multivariate Distributions Sums of Independent Random Variables Conditional Distributions and ExpectationsDistributions in the General Case. SimulationDistribution F...

Ruin Probabilities and Aggregrate Claims Distributions for Shot Noise Cox Processes

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Albrecher, H.; Asmussen, Søren

claim size is investigated under these assumptions. For both light-tailed and heavy-tailed claim size distributions, asymptotic estimates for infinite-time and finite-time ruin probabilities are derived. Moreover, we discuss an extension of the model to an adaptive premium rule that is dynamically......We consider a risk process Rt where the claim arrival process is a superposition of a homogeneous Poisson process and a Cox process with a Poisson shot noise intensity process, capturing the effect of sudden increases of the claim intensity due to external events. The distribution of the aggregate...... adjusted according to past claims experience....

Probability distribution functions for intermittent scrape-off layer plasma fluctuations

Science.gov (United States)

Theodorsen, A.; Garcia, O. E.

2018-03-01

A stochastic model for intermittent fluctuations in the scrape-off layer of magnetically confined plasmas has been constructed based on a super-position of uncorrelated pulses arriving according to a Poisson process. In the most common applications of the model, the pulse amplitudes are assumed exponentially distributed, supported by conditional averaging of large-amplitude fluctuations in experimental measurement data. This basic assumption has two potential limitations. First, statistical analysis of measurement data using conditional averaging only reveals the tail of the amplitude distribution to be exponentially distributed. Second, exponentially distributed amplitudes leads to a positive definite signal which cannot capture fluctuations in for example electric potential and radial velocity. Assuming pulse amplitudes which are not positive definite often make finding a closed form for the probability density function (PDF) difficult, even if the characteristic function remains relatively simple. Thus estimating model parameters requires an approach based on the characteristic function, not the PDF. In this contribution, the effect of changing the amplitude distribution on the moments, PDF and characteristic function of the process is investigated and a parameter estimation method using the empirical characteristic function is presented and tested on synthetically generated data. This proves valuable for describing intermittent fluctuations of all plasma parameters in the boundary region of magnetized plasmas.

Si-O-Si bond-angle distribution in vitreous silica from first-principles 29Si NMR analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mauri, Francesco; Pasquarello, Alfredo; Pfrommer, Bernd G.; Yoon, Young-Gui; Louie, Steven G.

2000-01-01

The correlation between 29 Si chemical shifts and Si-O-Si bond angles in SiO 2 is determined within density-functional theory for the full range of angles present in vitreous silica. This relation closely reproduces measured shifts of crystalline polymorphs. The knowledge of the correlation allows us to reliably extract from the experimental NMR spectrum the mean (151 degree sign ) and the standard deviation (11 degree sign ) of the Si-O-Si angular distribution of vitreous silica. In particular, we show that the Mozzi-Warren Si-O-Si angular distribution is not consistent with the NMR data. This analysis illustrates the potential of our approach for structural determinations of silicate glasses. (c) 2000 The American Physical Society

Audio feature extraction using probability distribution function

Science.gov (United States)

Suhaib, A.; Wan, Khairunizam; Aziz, Azri A.; Hazry, D.; Razlan, Zuradzman M.; Shahriman A., B.

2015-05-01

Voice recognition has been one of the popular applications in robotic field. It is also known to be recently used for biometric and multimedia information retrieval system. This technology is attained from successive research on audio feature extraction analysis. Probability Distribution Function (PDF) is a statistical method which is usually used as one of the processes in complex feature extraction methods such as GMM and PCA. In this paper, a new method for audio feature extraction is proposed which is by using only PDF as a feature extraction method itself for speech analysis purpose. Certain pre-processing techniques are performed in prior to the proposed feature extraction method. Subsequently, the PDF result values for each frame of sampled voice signals obtained from certain numbers of individuals are plotted. From the experimental results obtained, it can be seen visually from the plotted data that each individuals' voice has comparable PDF values and shapes.

Subspace Learning via Local Probability Distribution for Hyperspectral Image Classification

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Huiwu Luo

2015-01-01

Full Text Available The computational procedure of hyperspectral image (HSI is extremely complex, not only due to the high dimensional information, but also due to the highly correlated data structure. The need of effective processing and analyzing of HSI has met many difficulties. It has been evidenced that dimensionality reduction has been found to be a powerful tool for high dimensional data analysis. Local Fisher’s liner discriminant analysis (LFDA is an effective method to treat HSI processing. In this paper, a novel approach, called PD-LFDA, is proposed to overcome the weakness of LFDA. PD-LFDA emphasizes the probability distribution (PD in LFDA, where the maximum distance is replaced with local variance for the construction of weight matrix and the class prior probability is applied to compute the affinity matrix. The proposed approach increases the discriminant ability of the transformed features in low dimensional space. Experimental results on Indian Pines 1992 data indicate that the proposed approach significantly outperforms the traditional alternatives.

The trapping of potassium atoms by a polycrystalline tungsten surface as a function of energy and angle of incidence. ch. 1

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hurkmans, A.; Overbosch, E.G.; Olander, D.R.; Los, J.

1976-01-01

The trapping probability of potassium atoms on a polycrystalline tungsten surface has been measured as a function of the angle of incidence and as a function of the energy of the incoming atoms. Below an energy of 1 eV the trapping was complete; above 20 eV only reflection occurred. The trapping probability increased with increasing angle of incidence. The measurements are compared with a simple model of the fraction of atoms initially trapped. The model, a one-dimensional cube model including a Boltzmann distribution of the velocities of oscillating surface atoms, partially explains the data. The trapping probability as a function of incoming energy is well described for normal incidence, justifying the inclusion of thermal motion of the surface atoms in the model. The angular dependence can be explained in a qualitative way, although there is a substantial discrepancy for large angles of incidence, showing the presence of surface structure. (Auth.)

PHOTOMETRIC REDSHIFT PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS FOR GALAXIES IN THE SDSS DR8

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sheldon, Erin S.; Cunha, Carlos E.; Mandelbaum, Rachel; Brinkmann, J.; Weaver, Benjamin A.

2012-01-01

We present redshift probability distributions for galaxies in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) Data Release 8 imaging data. We used the nearest-neighbor weighting algorithm to derive the ensemble redshift distribution N(z), and individual redshift probability distributions P(z) for galaxies with r < 21.8 and u < 29.0. As part of this technique, we calculated weights for a set of training galaxies with known redshifts such that their density distribution in five-dimensional color-magnitude space was proportional to that of the photometry-only sample, producing a nearly fair sample in that space. We estimated the ensemble N(z) of the photometric sample by constructing a weighted histogram of the training-set redshifts. We derived P(z)'s for individual objects by using training-set objects from the local color-magnitude space around each photometric object. Using the P(z) for each galaxy can reduce the statistical error in measurements that depend on the redshifts of individual galaxies. The spectroscopic training sample is substantially larger than that used for the DR7 release. The newly added PRIMUS catalog is now the most important training set used in this analysis by a wide margin. We expect the primary sources of error in the N(z) reconstruction to be sample variance and spectroscopic failures: The training sets are drawn from relatively small volumes of space, and some samples have large incompleteness. Using simulations we estimated the uncertainty in N(z) due to sample variance at a given redshift to be ∼10%-15%. The uncertainty on calculations incorporating N(z) or P(z) depends on how they are used; we discuss the case of weak lensing measurements. The P(z) catalog is publicly available from the SDSS Web site.

Introduction to probability

CERN Document Server

Freund, John E

1993-01-01

Thorough, lucid coverage of permutations and factorials, probabilities and odds, frequency interpretation, mathematical expectation, decision making, postulates of probability, rule of elimination, binomial distribution, geometric distribution, standard deviation, law of large numbers, and much more. Exercises with some solutions. Summary. Bibliography. Includes 42 black-and-white illustrations. 1973 edition.

The limiting conditional probability distribution in a stochastic model of T cell repertoire maintenance.

Science.gov (United States)

Stirk, Emily R; Lythe, Grant; van den Berg, Hugo A; Hurst, Gareth A D; Molina-París, Carmen

2010-04-01

The limiting conditional probability distribution (LCD) has been much studied in the field of mathematical biology, particularly in the context of epidemiology and the persistence of epidemics. However, it has not yet been applied to the immune system. One of the characteristic features of the T cell repertoire is its diversity. This diversity declines in old age, whence the concepts of extinction and persistence are also relevant to the immune system. In this paper we model T cell repertoire maintenance by means of a continuous-time birth and death process on the positive integers, where the origin is an absorbing state. We show that eventual extinction is guaranteed. The late-time behaviour of the process before extinction takes place is modelled by the LCD, which we prove always exists for the process studied here. In most cases, analytic expressions for the LCD cannot be computed but the probability distribution may be approximated by means of the stationary probability distributions of two related processes. We show how these approximations are related to the LCD of the original process and use them to study the LCD in two special cases. We also make use of the large N expansion to derive a further approximation to the LCD. The accuracy of the various approximations is then analysed. (c) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A brief introduction to probability.

Science.gov (United States)

Di Paola, Gioacchino; Bertani, Alessandro; De Monte, Lavinia; Tuzzolino, Fabio

2018-02-01

The theory of probability has been debated for centuries: back in 1600, French mathematics used the rules of probability to place and win bets. Subsequently, the knowledge of probability has significantly evolved and is now an essential tool for statistics. In this paper, the basic theoretical principles of probability will be reviewed, with the aim of facilitating the comprehension of statistical inference. After a brief general introduction on probability, we will review the concept of the "probability distribution" that is a function providing the probabilities of occurrence of different possible outcomes of a categorical or continuous variable. Specific attention will be focused on normal distribution that is the most relevant distribution applied to statistical analysis.

Scoring Rules for Subjective Probability Distributions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Harrison, Glenn W.; Martínez-Correa, Jimmy; Swarthout, J. Todd

The theoretical literature has a rich characterization of scoring rules for eliciting the subjective beliefs that an individual has for continuous events, but under the restrictive assumption of risk neutrality. It is well known that risk aversion can dramatically affect the incentives to correctly...... report the true subjective probability of a binary event, even under Subjective Expected Utility. To address this one can “calibrate” inferences about true subjective probabilities from elicited subjective probabilities over binary events, recognizing the incentives that risk averse agents have...... to distort reports. We characterize the comparable implications of the general case of a risk averse agent when facing a popular scoring rule over continuous events, and find that these concerns do not apply with anything like the same force. For empirically plausible levels of risk aversion, one can...

Ruin probabilities

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Asmussen, Søren; Albrecher, Hansjörg

The book gives a comprehensive treatment of the classical and modern ruin probability theory. Some of the topics are Lundberg's inequality, the Cramér-Lundberg approximation, exact solutions, other approximations (e.g., for heavy-tailed claim size distributions), finite horizon ruin probabilities......, extensions of the classical compound Poisson model to allow for reserve-dependent premiums, Markov-modulation, periodicity, change of measure techniques, phase-type distributions as a computational vehicle and the connection to other applied probability areas, like queueing theory. In this substantially...... updated and extended second version, new topics include stochastic control, fluctuation theory for Levy processes, Gerber–Shiu functions and dependence....

A verification scenario of nuclear plus interference scattering effects using neutron incident angle distribution to the wall in beam-injected deuterium plasmas

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sugiyama, Shota; Matsuura, Hideaki; Uchiyama, Daisuke; Sawada, Daisuke; Watanabe, Tsuguhiro; Goto, Takuya; Mitarai, Osamu

2015-01-01

A verification scenario of knock-on tail formation in the deuteron distribution function due to nuclear plus interference scattering is presented by observing the incident angle distribution of neutrons in a vacuum vessel. Assuming a knock-on tail created in a "3He-beam-injected deuterium plasma, the incident angle distribution and energy spectra of the neutrons produced by fusion reactions between 1-MeV and thermal deuterons are evaluated. The relation between the neutron incident angle to the vacuum vessel and neutron energy is examined in the case of anisotropic neutron emission due to knock-on tail formation in neutral-beam-injected plasmas. (author)

Parameterization of Cherenkov Light Lateral Distribution Function as a Function of the Zenith Angle around the Knee Region

OpenAIRE

Abdulsttar, Marwah M.; Al-Rubaiee, A. A.; Ali, Abdul Halim Kh.

2016-01-01

Cherenkov light lateral distribution function (CLLDF) simulation was fulfilled using CORSIKA code for configurations of Tunka EAS array of different zenith angles. The parameterization of the CLLDF was carried out as a function of the distance from the shower core in extensive air showers (EAS) and zenith angle on the basis of the CORSIKA simulation of primary proton around the knee region with the energy 3.10^15 eV at different zenith angles. The parameterized CLLDF is verified in comparison...

Long-Term Fatigue and Its Probability of Failure Applied to Dental Implants

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

María Prados-Privado

2016-01-01

Full Text Available It is well known that dental implants have a high success rate but even so, there are a lot of factors that can cause dental implants failure. Fatigue is very sensitive to many variables involved in this phenomenon. This paper takes a close look at fatigue analysis and explains a new method to study fatigue from a probabilistic point of view, based on a cumulative damage model and probabilistic finite elements, with the goal of obtaining the expected life and the probability of failure. Two different dental implants were analysed. The model simulated a load of 178 N applied with an angle of 0°, 15°, and 20° and a force of 489 N with the same angles. Von Mises stress distribution was evaluated and once the methodology proposed here was used, the statistic of the fatigue life and the probability cumulative function were obtained. This function allows us to relate each cycle life with its probability of failure. Cylindrical implant has a worst behaviour under the same loading force compared to the conical implant analysed here. Methodology employed in the present study provides very accuracy results because all possible uncertainties have been taken in mind from the beginning.

Magnetic field drift shell splitting: Cause of unusual dayside particle pitch angle distributions during storms and substorms

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sibeck, D.G.; McEntire, R.W.; Lui, A.T.Y.; Lopez, R.E.; Krimigis, S.M.

1987-01-01

We present a magnetic field drift shell--splitting model for the unusual butterfly and head-and-shoulder energetic (E>25 keV) particle pitch angle distributions (PADs) which appear deep within the dayside magnetosphere during the course of storms and substorms. Drift shell splitting separates the high and low pitch angle particles in nightside injections as they move to the dayside magnetosphere, so that the higher pitch angle particles move radially away from Earth. Consequently, butterfly PADs with a surplus of low pitch angle particles form on the inner edge of the injection, but head-and-shoulder PADs with a surplus of high pitch angle particles from on the outer edge. A similar process removes high pitch angle particles from the inner dayside magnetosphere during storms, leaving the remaining lower pitch angle particles to form butterfly PADs on the inner edge of the ring current. A detailed case and statistical study of CCE/MEPA observations, as well as a review of previous work, shows most examples of unusual PADs to be consistent with the model. copyright American Geophysical Union 1987

Impact of spike train autostructure on probability distribution of joint spike events.

Science.gov (United States)

Pipa, Gordon; Grün, Sonja; van Vreeswijk, Carl

2013-05-01

The discussion whether temporally coordinated spiking activity really exists and whether it is relevant has been heated over the past few years. To investigate this issue, several approaches have been taken to determine whether synchronized events occur significantly above chance, that is, whether they occur more often than expected if the neurons fire independently. Most investigations ignore or destroy the autostructure of the spiking activity of individual cells or assume Poissonian spiking as a model. Such methods that ignore the autostructure can significantly bias the coincidence statistics. Here, we study the influence of the autostructure on the probability distribution of coincident spiking events between tuples of mutually independent non-Poisson renewal processes. In particular, we consider two types of renewal processes that were suggested as appropriate models of experimental spike trains: a gamma and a log-normal process. For a gamma process, we characterize the shape of the distribution analytically with the Fano factor (FFc). In addition, we perform Monte Carlo estimations to derive the full shape of the distribution and the probability for false positives if a different process type is assumed as was actually present. We also determine how manipulations of such spike trains, here dithering, used for the generation of surrogate data change the distribution of coincident events and influence the significance estimation. We find, first, that the width of the coincidence count distribution and its FFc depend critically and in a nontrivial way on the detailed properties of the structure of the spike trains as characterized by the coefficient of variation CV. Second, the dependence of the FFc on the CV is complex and mostly nonmonotonic. Third, spike dithering, even if as small as a fraction of the interspike interval, can falsify the inference on coordinated firing.

Probability Distribution and Projected Trends of Daily Precipitation in China

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

CAO; Li-Ge; ZHONG; Jun; SU; Bu-Da; ZHAI; Jian-Qing; Macro; GEMMER

2013-01-01

Based on observed daily precipitation data of 540 stations and 3,839 gridded data from the high-resolution regional climate model COSMO-Climate Limited-area Modeling(CCLM)for 1961–2000,the simulation ability of CCLM on daily precipitation in China is examined,and the variation of daily precipitation distribution pattern is revealed.By applying the probability distribution and extreme value theory to the projected daily precipitation(2011–2050)under SRES A1B scenario with CCLM,trends of daily precipitation series and daily precipitation extremes are analyzed.Results show that except for the western Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau and South China,distribution patterns of the kurtosis and skewness calculated from the simulated and observed series are consistent with each other;their spatial correlation coefcients are above 0.75.The CCLM can well capture the distribution characteristics of daily precipitation over China.It is projected that in some parts of the Jianghuai region,central-eastern Northeast China and Inner Mongolia,the kurtosis and skewness will increase significantly,and precipitation extremes will increase during 2011–2050.The projected increase of maximum daily rainfall and longest non-precipitation period during flood season in the aforementioned regions,also show increasing trends of droughts and floods in the next 40 years.

Angle dependence of Andreev scattering at semiconductor-superconductor interfaces

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mortensen, Asger; Flensberg, Karsten; Jauho, Antti-Pekka

1999-01-01

We study the angle dependence of the Andreev scattering at a semiconductor-superconductor interface, generalizing the one-dimensional theory of Blonder, Tinkham, and Klapwijk (BTK),An increase of the momentum parallel to the interface leads to suppression of the probability of Andreev reflection...... and increase of the probability of normal reflection. We show that in the presence of a Fermi velocity mismatch between the semiconductor and the superconductor the angles of incidence and transmission are related according to the well-known Snell's law in optics. As a consequence there is a critical angle...

Variation in the standard deviation of the lure rating distribution: Implications for estimates of recollection probability.

Science.gov (United States)

Dopkins, Stephen; Varner, Kaitlin; Hoyer, Darin

2017-10-01

In word recognition semantic priming of test words increased the false-alarm rate and the mean of confidence ratings to lures. Such priming also increased the standard deviation of confidence ratings to lures and the slope of the z-ROC function, suggesting that the priming increased the standard deviation of the lure evidence distribution. The Unequal Variance Signal Detection (UVSD) model interpreted the priming as increasing the standard deviation of the lure evidence distribution. Without additional parameters the Dual Process Signal Detection (DPSD) model could only accommodate the results by fitting the data for related and unrelated primes separately, interpreting the priming, implausibly, as decreasing the probability of target recollection (DPSD). With an additional parameter, for the probability of false (lure) recollection the model could fit the data for related and unrelated primes together, interpreting the priming as increasing the probability of false recollection. These results suggest that DPSD estimates of target recollection probability will decrease with increases in the lure confidence/evidence standard deviation unless a parameter is included for false recollection. Unfortunately the size of a given lure confidence/evidence standard deviation relative to other possible lure confidence/evidence standard deviations is often unspecified by context. Hence the model often has no way of estimating false recollection probability and thereby correcting its estimates of target recollection probability.

Pitch angle distributions of electrons at dipolarization sites during geomagnetic activity: THEMIS observations

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Kaiti; Lin, Ching-Huei; Wang, Lu-Yin; Hada, Tohru; Nishimura, Yukitoshi; Turner, Drew L.; Angelopoulos, Vassilis

2014-12-01

Changes in pitch angle distributions of electrons with energies from a few eV to 1 MeV at dipolarization sites in Earth's magnetotail are investigated statistically to determine the extent to which adiabatic acceleration may contribute to these changes. Forty-two dipolarization events from 2008 and 2009 observed by Time History of Events and Macroscale Interactions during Substorms probes covering the inner plasma sheet from 8 RE to 12 RE during geomagnetic activity identified by the AL index are analyzed. The number of observed events with cigar-type distributions (peaks at 0° and 180°) decreases sharply below 1 keV after dipolarization because in many of these events, electron distributions became more isotropized. From above 1 keV to a few tens of keV, however, the observed number of cigar-type events increases after dipolarization and the number of isotropic events decreases. These changes can be related to the ineffectiveness of Fermi acceleration below 1 keV (at those energies, dipolarization time becomes comparable to electron bounce time). Model-calculated pitch angle distributions after dipolarization with the effect of betatron and Fermi acceleration tested indicate that these adiabatic acceleration mechanisms can explain the observed patterns of event number changes over a large range of energies for cigar events and isotropic events. Other factors still need to be considered to assess the observed increase in cigar events around 2 keV. Indeed, preferential directional increase/loss of electron fluxes, which may contribute to the formation of cigar events, was observed. Nonadiabatic processes to accelerate electrons in a parallel direction may also be important for future study.

PROBABLE CHARACTERISTICS ОF ELECTROMAGNETIC FIELD ENVIRONMENT AT EARTH SURFACE CAUSED BY RADIO-ELECTRONIC AIDS OPERATING OVER EARTH SURFACE

OpenAIRE

V. I. Mordachev

2009-01-01

The paper provides results of modeling distribution of signal probability of radio-electronic aids located over the Earth surface at a specific height and determining an electromagnetic environment on its surface according to a power parameter and an input direction angle at an optionally selected observation point being on the earth surface.

Method to measure the position offset of multiple light spots in a distributed aperture laser angle measurement system.

Science.gov (United States)

Jing, Xiaoli; Cheng, Haobo; Xu, Chunyun; Feng, Yunpeng

2017-02-20

In this paper, an accurate measurement method of multiple spots' position offsets on a four-quadrant detector is proposed for a distributed aperture laser angle measurement system (DALAMS). The theoretical model is put forward, as well as the corresponding calculation method. This method includes two steps. First, as the initial estimation, integral approximation is applied to fit the distributed spots' offset function; second, the Boltzmann function is employed to compensate for the estimation error to improve detection accuracy. The simulation results attest to the correctness and effectiveness of the proposed method, and tolerance synthesis analysis of DALAMS is conducted to determine the maximum uncertainties of manufacturing and installation. The maximum angle error is less than 0.08° in the prototype distributed measurement system, which shows the stability and robustness for prospective applications.

Loaded dice in Monte Carlo : importance sampling in phase space integration and probability distributions for discrepancies

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hameren, Andreas Ferdinand Willem van

2001-01-01

Discrepancies play an important role in the study of uniformity properties of point sets. Their probability distributions are a help in the analysis of the efficiency of the Quasi Monte Carlo method of numerical integration, which uses point sets that are distributed more uniformly than sets of

The Probability Distribution for a Biased Spinner

Science.gov (United States)

Foster, Colin

2012-01-01

This article advocates biased spinners as an engaging context for statistics students. Calculating the probability of a biased spinner landing on a particular side makes valuable connections between probability and other areas of mathematics. (Contains 2 figures and 1 table.)

Chaos optimization algorithms based on chaotic maps with different probability distribution and search speed for global optimization

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Dixiong; Liu, Zhenjun; Zhou, Jilei

2014-04-01

Chaos optimization algorithms (COAs) usually utilize the chaotic map like Logistic map to generate the pseudo-random numbers mapped as the design variables for global optimization. Many existing researches indicated that COA can more easily escape from the local minima than classical stochastic optimization algorithms. This paper reveals the inherent mechanism of high efficiency and superior performance of COA, from a new perspective of both the probability distribution property and search speed of chaotic sequences generated by different chaotic maps. The statistical property and search speed of chaotic sequences are represented by the probability density function (PDF) and the Lyapunov exponent, respectively. Meanwhile, the computational performances of hybrid chaos-BFGS algorithms based on eight one-dimensional chaotic maps with different PDF and Lyapunov exponents are compared, in which BFGS is a quasi-Newton method for local optimization. Moreover, several multimodal benchmark examples illustrate that, the probability distribution property and search speed of chaotic sequences from different chaotic maps significantly affect the global searching capability and optimization efficiency of COA. To achieve the high efficiency of COA, it is recommended to adopt the appropriate chaotic map generating the desired chaotic sequences with uniform or nearly uniform probability distribution and large Lyapunov exponent.

Study of the SEMG probability distribution of the paretic tibialis anterior muscle

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cherniz, AnalIa S; Bonell, Claudia E; Tabernig, Carolina B [Laboratorio de Ingenieria de Rehabilitacion e Investigaciones Neuromusculares y Sensoriales, Facultad de Ingenieria, UNER, Oro Verde (Argentina)

2007-11-15

The surface electromyographic signal is a stochastic signal that has been modeled as a Gaussian process, with a zero mean. It has been experimentally proved that this probability distribution can be adjusted with less error to a Laplacian type distribution. The selection of estimators for the detection of changes in the amplitude of the muscular signal depends, among other things, on the type of distribution. In the case of subjects with lesions to the superior motor neuron, the lack of central control affects the muscular tone, the force and the patterns of muscular movement involved in activities such as the gait cycle. In this work, the distribution types of the SEMG signal amplitudes of the tibialis anterior muscle are evaluated during gait, both in two healthy subjects and in two hemiparetic ones in order to select the estimators that best characterize them. It was observed that the Laplacian distribution function would be the one that best adjusts to the experimental data in the studied subjects, although this largely depends on the subject and on the data segment analyzed.

Study of the SEMG probability distribution of the paretic tibialis anterior muscle

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cherniz, AnalIa S; Bonell, Claudia E; Tabernig, Carolina B

2007-01-01

The surface electromyographic signal is a stochastic signal that has been modeled as a Gaussian process, with a zero mean. It has been experimentally proved that this probability distribution can be adjusted with less error to a Laplacian type distribution. The selection of estimators for the detection of changes in the amplitude of the muscular signal depends, among other things, on the type of distribution. In the case of subjects with lesions to the superior motor neuron, the lack of central control affects the muscular tone, the force and the patterns of muscular movement involved in activities such as the gait cycle. In this work, the distribution types of the SEMG signal amplitudes of the tibialis anterior muscle are evaluated during gait, both in two healthy subjects and in two hemiparetic ones in order to select the estimators that best characterize them. It was observed that the Laplacian distribution function would be the one that best adjusts to the experimental data in the studied subjects, although this largely depends on the subject and on the data segment analyzed

The angular distributions of ultraviolet spectral irradiance at different solar elevation angles under clear sky conditions

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Yan; Hu, LiWen; Wang, Fang; Gao, YanYan; Zheng, Yang; Wang, Yu; Liu, Yang

2016-01-01

To investigate the angular distributions of UVA, UVB, and effective UV for erythema and vitamin D (vitD) synthesis, the UV spectral irradiances were measured at ten inclined angles (from 0° to 90°) and seven azimuths (from 0° to 180°) at solar elevation angle (SEA) that ranged from 18.8° to 80° in Shanghai (31.22° N, 121.55° E) under clear sky and the albedo of ground was 0.1. The results demonstrated that in the mean azimuths and with the back to the sun, the UVA, UVB, and erythemally and vitD-weighted irradiances increased with the inclined angles and an increase in SEA. When facing toward the sun at 0°-60° inclined angles, the UVA first increased and then decreased with an increase in SEA; at other inclined angles, the UVA increased with SEA. At 0°-40° inclined angles, the UVB and erythemally and vitD-weighted irradiances first increased and then decreased with an increase in SEA, and their maximums were achieved at SEA 68.7°; at other inclined angles, the above three irradiances increased with an increase in SEA. The maximum UVA, UVB, and erythemally and vitD-weighted irradiances were achieved at an 80° inclined angle at SEA 80° (the highest in our measurements); the cumulative exposure of the half day achieved the maximum at a 60° inclined angle, but not on the horizontal. This study provides support for the assessment of human skin sun exposure.

Spectral shaping of a randomized PWM DC-DC converter using maximum entropy probability distributions

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Dove, Albert

2017-01-01

Full Text Available maintaining constraints in a DC-DC converter is investigated. A probability distribution whose aim is to ensure maximal harmonic spreading and yet mainaint constraints is presented. The PDFs are determined from a direct application of the method of Maximum...

PROBABLE CHARACTERISTICS ОF ELECTROMAGNETIC FIELD ENVIRONMENT AT EARTH SURFACE CAUSED BY RADIO-ELECTRONIC AIDS OPERATING OVER EARTH SURFACE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

V. I. Mordachev

2009-01-01

Full Text Available The paper provides results of modeling distribution of signal probability of radio-electronic aids located over the Earth surface at a specific height and determining an electromagnetic environment on its surface according to a power parameter and an input direction angle at an optionally selected observation point being on the earth surface.

Assessment of fragment projection hazard: probability distributions for the initial direction of fragments.

Science.gov (United States)

Tugnoli, Alessandro; Gubinelli, Gianfilippo; Landucci, Gabriele; Cozzani, Valerio

2014-08-30

The evaluation of the initial direction and velocity of the fragments generated in the fragmentation of a vessel due to internal pressure is an important information in the assessment of damage caused by fragments, in particular within the quantitative risk assessment (QRA) of chemical and process plants. In the present study an approach is proposed to the identification and validation of probability density functions (pdfs) for the initial direction of the fragments. A detailed review of a large number of past accidents provided the background information for the validation procedure. A specific method was developed for the validation of the proposed pdfs. Validated pdfs were obtained for both the vertical and horizontal angles of projection and for the initial velocity of the fragments. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Probability evolution method for exit location distribution

Science.gov (United States)

Zhu, Jinjie; Chen, Zhen; Liu, Xianbin

2018-03-01

The exit problem in the framework of the large deviation theory has been a hot topic in the past few decades. The most probable escape path in the weak-noise limit has been clarified by the Freidlin-Wentzell action functional. However, noise in real physical systems cannot be arbitrarily small while noise with finite strength may induce nontrivial phenomena, such as noise-induced shift and noise-induced saddle-point avoidance. Traditional Monte Carlo simulation of noise-induced escape will take exponentially large time as noise approaches zero. The majority of the time is wasted on the uninteresting wandering around the attractors. In this paper, a new method is proposed to decrease the escape simulation time by an exponentially large factor by introducing a series of interfaces and by applying the reinjection on them. This method can be used to calculate the exit location distribution. It is verified by examining two classical examples and is compared with theoretical predictions. The results show that the method performs well for weak noise while may induce certain deviations for large noise. Finally, some possible ways to improve our method are discussed.

Constructing probability distributions of uncertain variables in models of the performance of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant: The 1990 performance simulations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tierney, M.S.

1990-12-01

A five-step procedure was used in the 1990 performance simulations to construct probability distributions of the uncertain variables appearing in the mathematical models used to simulate the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant's (WIPP's) performance. This procedure provides a consistent approach to the construction of probability distributions in cases where empirical data concerning a variable are sparse or absent and minimizes the amount of spurious information that is often introduced into a distribution by assumptions of nonspecialists. The procedure gives first priority to the professional judgment of subject-matter experts and emphasizes the use of site-specific empirical data for the construction of the probability distributions when such data are available. In the absence of sufficient empirical data, the procedure employs the Maximum Entropy Formalism and the subject-matter experts' subjective estimates of the parameters of the distribution to construct a distribution that can be used in a performance simulation. (author)

Constructing probability distributions of uncertain variables in models of the performance of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant: The 1990 performance simulations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Tierney, M S

1990-12-15

A five-step procedure was used in the 1990 performance simulations to construct probability distributions of the uncertain variables appearing in the mathematical models used to simulate the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant's (WIPP's) performance. This procedure provides a consistent approach to the construction of probability distributions in cases where empirical data concerning a variable are sparse or absent and minimizes the amount of spurious information that is often introduced into a distribution by assumptions of nonspecialists. The procedure gives first priority to the professional judgment of subject-matter experts and emphasizes the use of site-specific empirical data for the construction of the probability distributions when such data are available. In the absence of sufficient empirical data, the procedure employs the Maximum Entropy Formalism and the subject-matter experts' subjective estimates of the parameters of the distribution to construct a distribution that can be used in a performance simulation. (author)

Gap probability - Measurements and models of a pecan orchard

Science.gov (United States)

Strahler, Alan H.; Li, Xiaowen; Moody, Aaron; Liu, YI

1992-01-01

Measurements and models are compared for gap probability in a pecan orchard. Measurements are based on panoramic photographs of 50* by 135 view angle made under the canopy looking upwards at regular positions along transects between orchard trees. The gap probability model is driven by geometric parameters at two levels-crown and leaf. Crown level parameters include the shape of the crown envelope and spacing of crowns; leaf level parameters include leaf size and shape, leaf area index, and leaf angle, all as functions of canopy position.

Large field distributed aperture laser semiactive angle measurement system design with imaging fiber bundles.

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, Chunyun; Cheng, Haobo; Feng, Yunpeng; Jing, Xiaoli

2016-09-01

A type of laser semiactive angle measurement system is designed for target detecting and tracking. Only one detector is used to detect target location from four distributed aperture optical systems through a 4×1 imaging fiber bundle. A telecentric optical system in image space is designed to increase the efficiency of imaging fiber bundles. According to the working principle of a four-quadrant (4Q) detector, fiber diamond alignment is adopted between an optical system and a 4Q detector. The structure of the laser semiactive angle measurement system is, we believe, novel. Tolerance analysis is carried out to determine tolerance limits of manufacture and installation errors of the optical system. The performance of the proposed method is identified by computer simulations and experiments. It is demonstrated that the linear region of the system is ±12°, with measurement error of better than 0.2°. In general, this new system can be used with large field of view and high accuracy, providing an efficient, stable, and fast method for angle measurement in practical situations.

Impact parameter dependence of inner-shell ionization probabilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cocke, C.L.

1974-01-01

The probability for ionization of an inner shell of a target atom by a heavy charged projectile is a sensitive function of the impact parameter characterizing the collision. This probability can be measured experimentally by detecting the x-ray resulting from radiative filling of the inner shell in coincidence with the projectile scattered at a determined angle, and by using the scattering angle to deduce the impact parameter. It is conjectured that the functional dependence of the ionization probability may be a more sensitive probe of the ionization mechanism than is a total cross section measurement. Experimental results for the K-shell ionization of both solid and gas targets by oxygen, carbon and fluorine projectiles in the MeV/amu energy range will be presented, and their use in illuminating the inelastic collision process discussed

On the probability distribution of daily streamflow in the United States

Science.gov (United States)

Blum, Annalise G.; Archfield, Stacey A.; Vogel, Richard M.

2017-06-01

Daily streamflows are often represented by flow duration curves (FDCs), which illustrate the frequency with which flows are equaled or exceeded. FDCs have had broad applications across both operational and research hydrology for decades; however, modeling FDCs has proven elusive. Daily streamflow is a complex time series with flow values ranging over many orders of magnitude. The identification of a probability distribution that can approximate daily streamflow would improve understanding of the behavior of daily flows and the ability to estimate FDCs at ungaged river locations. Comparisons of modeled and empirical FDCs at nearly 400 unregulated, perennial streams illustrate that the four-parameter kappa distribution provides a very good representation of daily streamflow across the majority of physiographic regions in the conterminous United States (US). Further, for some regions of the US, the three-parameter generalized Pareto and lognormal distributions also provide a good approximation to FDCs. Similar results are found for the period of record FDCs, representing the long-term hydrologic regime at a site, and median annual FDCs, representing the behavior of flows in a typical year.

Classification of Knee Joint Vibration Signals Using Bivariate Feature Distribution Estimation and Maximal Posterior Probability Decision Criterion

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fang Zheng

2013-04-01

Full Text Available Analysis of knee joint vibration or vibroarthrographic (VAG signals using signal processing and machine learning algorithms possesses high potential for the noninvasive detection of articular cartilage degeneration, which may reduce unnecessary exploratory surgery. Feature representation of knee joint VAG signals helps characterize the pathological condition of degenerative articular cartilages in the knee. This paper used the kernel-based probability density estimation method to model the distributions of the VAG signals recorded from healthy subjects and patients with knee joint disorders. The estimated densities of the VAG signals showed explicit distributions of the normal and abnormal signal groups, along with the corresponding contours in the bivariate feature space. The signal classifications were performed by using the Fisher’s linear discriminant analysis, support vector machine with polynomial kernels, and the maximal posterior probability decision criterion. The maximal posterior probability decision criterion was able to provide the total classification accuracy of 86.67% and the area (Az of 0.9096 under the receiver operating characteristics curve, which were superior to the results obtained by either the Fisher’s linear discriminant analysis (accuracy: 81.33%, Az: 0.8564 or the support vector machine with polynomial kernels (accuracy: 81.33%, Az: 0.8533. Such results demonstrated the merits of the bivariate feature distribution estimation and the superiority of the maximal posterior probability decision criterion for analysis of knee joint VAG signals.

Some thoughts on the Musala anisotropy; pitch angle distribution or what else

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kota, J.; Somogyi, A.J.

1977-01-01

Based on the results obtained in the Musala experiment and in other anisotropy measurements, an attempt is made to explore the three-dimensional structure of cosmic ray anisotropy in the 10 11 - 107M1 4 eV range. (i) It is investigated whether observtions can be reconcilied with a pitch angle distribution. (ii) Assuming that the principal axes of the tensor anisotropy are known, the vector and tensor anisotropies are separated. Discussed are the theoretical implications of the results obtained and possible origins of the second harmonic. (author)

Properties of the probability distribution associated with the largest event in an earthquake cluster and their implications to foreshocks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhuang Jiancang; Ogata, Yosihiko

2006-01-01

The space-time epidemic-type aftershock sequence model is a stochastic branching process in which earthquake activity is classified into background and clustering components and each earthquake triggers other earthquakes independently according to certain rules. This paper gives the probability distributions associated with the largest event in a cluster and their properties for all three cases when the process is subcritical, critical, and supercritical. One of the direct uses of these probability distributions is to evaluate the probability of an earthquake to be a foreshock, and magnitude distributions of foreshocks and nonforeshock earthquakes. To verify these theoretical results, the Japan Meteorological Agency earthquake catalog is analyzed. The proportion of events that have 1 or more larger descendants in total events is found to be as high as about 15%. When the differences between background events and triggered event in the behavior of triggering children are considered, a background event has a probability about 8% to be a foreshock. This probability decreases when the magnitude of the background event increases. These results, obtained from a complicated clustering model, where the characteristics of background events and triggered events are different, are consistent with the results obtained in [Ogata et al., Geophys. J. Int. 127, 17 (1996)] by using the conventional single-linked cluster declustering method

Properties of the probability distribution associated with the largest event in an earthquake cluster and their implications to foreshocks.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhuang, Jiancang; Ogata, Yosihiko

2006-04-01

The space-time epidemic-type aftershock sequence model is a stochastic branching process in which earthquake activity is classified into background and clustering components and each earthquake triggers other earthquakes independently according to certain rules. This paper gives the probability distributions associated with the largest event in a cluster and their properties for all three cases when the process is subcritical, critical, and supercritical. One of the direct uses of these probability distributions is to evaluate the probability of an earthquake to be a foreshock, and magnitude distributions of foreshocks and nonforeshock earthquakes. To verify these theoretical results, the Japan Meteorological Agency earthquake catalog is analyzed. The proportion of events that have 1 or more larger descendants in total events is found to be as high as about 15%. When the differences between background events and triggered event in the behavior of triggering children are considered, a background event has a probability about 8% to be a foreshock. This probability decreases when the magnitude of the background event increases. These results, obtained from a complicated clustering model, where the characteristics of background events and triggered events are different, are consistent with the results obtained in [Ogata, Geophys. J. Int. 127, 17 (1996)] by using the conventional single-linked cluster declustering method.

Providing probability distributions for the causal pathogen of clinical mastitis using naive Bayesian networks

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Steeneveld, W.; Gaag, van der L.C.; Barkema, H.W.; Hogeveen, H.

2009-01-01

Clinical mastitis (CM) can be caused by a wide variety of pathogens and farmers must start treatment before the actual causal pathogen is known. By providing a probability distribution for the causal pathogen, naive Bayesian networks (NBN) can serve as a management tool for farmers to decide which

A methodology for more efficient tail area sampling with discrete probability distribution

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Park, Sang Ryeol; Lee, Byung Ho; Kim, Tae Woon

1988-01-01

Monte Carlo Method is commonly used to observe the overall distribution and to determine the lower or upper bound value in statistical approach when direct analytical calculation is unavailable. However, this method would not be efficient if the tail area of a distribution is concerned. A new method entitled 'Two Step Tail Area Sampling' is developed, which uses the assumption of discrete probability distribution and samples only the tail area without distorting the overall distribution. This method uses two step sampling procedure. First, sampling at points separated by large intervals is done and second, sampling at points separated by small intervals is done with some check points determined at first step sampling. Comparison with Monte Carlo Method shows that the results obtained from the new method converge to analytic value faster than Monte Carlo Method if the numbers of calculation of both methods are the same. This new method is applied to DNBR (Departure from Nucleate Boiling Ratio) prediction problem in design of the pressurized light water nuclear reactor

The probability distribution model of air pollution index and its dominants in Kuala Lumpur

Science.gov (United States)

AL-Dhurafi, Nasr Ahmed; Razali, Ahmad Mahir; Masseran, Nurulkamal; Zamzuri, Zamira Hasanah

2016-11-01

This paper focuses on the statistical modeling for the distributions of air pollution index (API) and its sub-indexes data observed at Kuala Lumpur in Malaysia. Five pollutants or sub-indexes are measured including, carbon monoxide (CO); sulphur dioxide (SO2); nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and; particulate matter (PM10). Four probability distributions are considered, namely log-normal, exponential, Gamma and Weibull in search for the best fit distribution to the Malaysian air pollutants data. In order to determine the best distribution for describing the air pollutants data, five goodness-of-fit criteria's are applied. This will help in minimizing the uncertainty in pollution resource estimates and improving the assessment phase of planning. The conflict in criterion results for selecting the best distribution was overcome by using the weight of ranks method. We found that the Gamma distribution is the best distribution for the majority of air pollutants data in Kuala Lumpur.

Foundations of quantization for probability distributions

CERN Document Server

Graf, Siegfried

2000-01-01

Due to the rapidly increasing need for methods of data compression, quantization has become a flourishing field in signal and image processing and information theory. The same techniques are also used in statistics (cluster analysis), pattern recognition, and operations research (optimal location of service centers). The book gives the first mathematically rigorous account of the fundamental theory underlying these applications. The emphasis is on the asymptotics of quantization errors for absolutely continuous and special classes of singular probabilities (surface measures, self-similar measures) presenting some new results for the first time. Written for researchers and graduate students in probability theory the monograph is of potential interest to all people working in the disciplines mentioned above.

Exfoliation of GaAs caused by MeV 1H and 4He ion implantation at left angle 100 right angle , left angle 110 right angle axial and random orientations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rauhala, E.; Raeisaenen, J.

1994-01-01

The exfoliation procedure of the ion range determination of gaseous implants in single crystal GaAs is investigated. The correlation of the observed crater depth with the ion range is studied for random, left angle 100 right angle and left angle 110 right angle axial orientation high dose implantations of 1.5-2.5 MeV 1 H and 4 He ions. Depending on the experimental conditions, the crater depths corresponded to range values between the modal range and the range maximum. The observed crater depths could be related to the actual He concentration depth distributions by determining the profiles of the 4 He implants by 2.7 MeV proton backscattering. The implantation parameters affecting the exfoliation process, and especially the increase rate of the sample temperature, are investigated. The range distribution parameters for the 1.5 MeV 4 He implants are presented. ((orig.))

Research on Energy-Saving Design of Overhead Travelling Crane Camber Based on Probability Load Distribution

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tong Yifei

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Crane is a mechanical device, used widely to move materials in modern production. It is reported that the energy consumptions of China are at least 5–8 times of other developing countries. Thus, energy consumption becomes an unavoidable topic. There are several reasons influencing the energy loss, and the camber of the girder is the one not to be neglected. In this paper, the problem of the deflections induced by the moving payload in the girder of overhead travelling crane is examined. The evaluation of a camber giving a counterdeflection of the girder is proposed in order to get minimum energy consumptions for trolley to move along a nonstraight support. To this aim, probabilistic payload distributions are considered instead of fixed or rated loads involved in other researches. Taking 50/10 t bridge crane as a research object, the probability loads are determined by analysis of load distribution density functions. According to load distribution, camber design under different probability loads is discussed in detail as well as energy consumptions distribution. The research results provide the design reference of reasonable camber to obtain the least energy consumption for climbing corresponding to different P0; thus energy-saving design can be achieved.

Assignment of protein backbone resonances using connectivity, torsion angles and 13Cα chemical shifts

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Morris, Laura C.; Valafar, Homayoun; Prestegard, James H.

2004-01-01

A program is presented which will return the most probable sequence location for a short connected set of residues in a protein given just 13 C α chemical shifts (δ( 13 C α )) and data restricting the φ and ψ backbone angles. Data taken from both the BioMagResBank and the Protein Data Bank were used to create a probability density function (PDF) using a multivariate normal distribution in δ( 13 C α ), φ, and ψ space for each amino acid residue. Extracting and combining probabilities for particular amino acid residues in a short proposed sequence yields a score indicative of the correctness of the proposed assignment. The program is illustrated using several proteins for which structure and 13 C α chemical shift data are available

Tumour control probability (TCP) for non-uniform activity distribution in radionuclide therapy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Uusijaervi, Helena; Bernhardt, Peter; Forssell-Aronsson, Eva

2008-01-01

Non-uniform radionuclide distribution in tumours will lead to a non-uniform absorbed dose. The aim of this study was to investigate how tumour control probability (TCP) depends on the radionuclide distribution in the tumour, both macroscopically and at the subcellular level. The absorbed dose in the cell nuclei of tumours was calculated for 90 Y, 177 Lu, 103m Rh and 211 At. The radionuclides were uniformly distributed within the subcellular compartment and they were uniformly, normally or log-normally distributed among the cells in the tumour. When all cells contain the same amount of activity, the cumulated activities required for TCP = 0.99 (A-tilde TCP=0.99 ) were 1.5-2 and 2-3 times higher when the activity was distributed on the cell membrane compared to in the cell nucleus for 103m Rh and 211 At, respectively. TCP for 90 Y was not affected by different radionuclide distributions, whereas for 177 Lu, it was slightly affected when the radionuclide was in the nucleus. TCP for 103m Rh and 211 At were affected by different radionuclide distributions to a great extent when the radionuclides were in the cell nucleus and to lesser extents when the radionuclides were distributed on the cell membrane or in the cytoplasm. When the activity was distributed in the nucleus, A-tilde TCP=0.99 increased when the activity distribution became more heterogeneous for 103m Rh and 211 At, and the increase was large when the activity was normally distributed compared to log-normally distributed. When the activity was distributed on the cell membrane, A-tilde TCP=0.99 was not affected for 103m Rh and 211 At when the activity distribution became more heterogeneous. A-tilde TCP=0.99 for 90 Y and 177 Lu were not affected by different activity distributions, neither macroscopic nor subcellular

Physical mechanism causing rapid changes in ultrarelativistic electron pitch angle distributions right after a shock arrival: Evaluation of an electron dropout event

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, X.-J.; Li, W.; Thorne, R. M.; Angelopoulos, V.; Ma, Q.; Li, J.; Bortnik, J.; Nishimura, Y.; Chen, L.; Baker, D. N.; Reeves, G. D.; Spence, H. E.; Kletzing, C. A.; Kurth, W. S.; Hospodarsky, G. B.; Blake, J. B.; Fennell, J. F.

2016-09-01

Three mechanisms have been proposed to explain relativistic electron flux depletions (dropouts) in the Earth's outer radiation belt during storm times: adiabatic expansion of electron drift shells due to a decrease in magnetic field strength, magnetopause shadowing and subsequent outward radial diffusion, and precipitation into the atmosphere (driven by EMIC wave scattering). Which mechanism predominates in causing electron dropouts commonly observed in the outer radiation belt is still debatable. In the present study, we evaluate the physical mechanism that may be primarily responsible for causing the sudden change in relativistic electron pitch angle distributions during a dropout event observed by Van Allen Probes during the main phase of the 27 February 2014 storm. During this event, the phase space density of ultrarelativistic (>1 MeV) electrons was depleted by more than 1 order of magnitude over the entire radial extent of the outer radiation belt (3 pitch angle distribution under a compressed magnetic field topology based on actual solar wind conditions. Although these ultrarelativistic electrons exhibit highly anisotropic (peaked in 90°), energy-dependent pitch angle distributions, which appear to be associated with the typical EMIC wave scattering, comparison of the modeled electron distribution to electron measurements indicates that drift shell splitting is responsible for this rapid change in electron pitch angle distributions. This further indicates that magnetopause loss is the predominant cause of the electron dropout right after the shock arrival.

Random phenomena fundamentals of probability and statistics for engineers

CERN Document Server

Ogunnaike, Babatunde A

2009-01-01

PreludeApproach PhilosophyFour Basic PrinciplesI FoundationsTwo Motivating ExamplesYield Improvement in a Chemical ProcessQuality Assurance in a Glass Sheet Manufacturing ProcessOutline of a Systematic ApproachRandom Phenomena, Variability, and UncertaintyTwo Extreme Idealizations of Natural PhenomenaRandom Mass PhenomenaIntroducing ProbabilityThe Probabilistic FrameworkII ProbabilityFundamentals of Probability TheoryBuilding BlocksOperationsProbabilityConditional ProbabilityIndependenceRandom Variables and DistributionsDistributionsMathematical ExpectationCharacterizing DistributionsSpecial Derived Probability FunctionsMultidimensional Random VariablesDistributions of Several Random VariablesDistributional Characteristics of Jointly Distributed Random VariablesRandom Variable TransformationsSingle Variable TransformationsBivariate TransformationsGeneral Multivariate TransformationsApplication Case Studies I: ProbabilityMendel and HeredityWorld War II Warship Tactical Response Under AttackIII DistributionsIde...

Various models for pion probability distributions from heavy-ion collisions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mekjian, A.Z.; Mekjian, A.Z.; Schlei, B.R.; Strottman, D.; Schlei, B.R.

1998-01-01

Various models for pion multiplicity distributions produced in relativistic heavy ion collisions are discussed. The models include a relativistic hydrodynamic model, a thermodynamic description, an emitting source pion laser model, and a description which generates a negative binomial description. The approach developed can be used to discuss other cases which will be mentioned. The pion probability distributions for these various cases are compared. Comparison of the pion laser model and Bose-Einstein condensation in a laser trap and with the thermal model are made. The thermal model and hydrodynamic model are also used to illustrate why the number of pions never diverges and why the Bose-Einstein correction effects are relatively small. The pion emission strength η of a Poisson emitter and a critical density η c are connected in a thermal model by η/n c =e -m/T <1, and this fact reduces any Bose-Einstein correction effects in the number and number fluctuation of pions. Fluctuations can be much larger than Poisson in the pion laser model and for a negative binomial description. The clan representation of the negative binomial distribution due to Van Hove and Giovannini is discussed using the present description. Applications to CERN/NA44 and CERN/NA49 data are discussed in terms of the relativistic hydrodynamic model. copyright 1998 The American Physical Society

Measuring helium bubble diameter distributions in tungsten with grazing incidence small angle x-ray scattering (GISAXS)

Science.gov (United States)

Thompson, M.; Kluth, P.; Doerner, R. P.; Kirby, N.; Riley, D.; Corr, C. S.

2016-02-01

Grazing incidence small angle x-ray scattering was performed on tungsten samples exposed to helium plasma in the MAGPIE and Pisces-A linear plasma devices to measure the size distributions of resulting helium nano-bubbles. Nano-bubbles were fitted assuming spheroidal particles and an exponential diameter distribution. These particles had mean diameters between 0.36 and 0.62 nm. Pisces-A exposed samples showed more complex patterns, which may suggest the formation of faceted nano-bubbles or nano-scale surface structures.

Analytical models of probability distribution and excess noise factor of solid state photomultiplier signals with crosstalk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vinogradov, S.

2012-01-01

Silicon Photomultipliers (SiPM), also called Solid State Photomultipliers (SSPM), are based on Geiger mode avalanche breakdown that is limited by a strong negative feedback. An SSPM can detect and resolve single photons due to the high gain and ultra-low excess noise of avalanche multiplication in this mode. Crosstalk and afterpulsing processes associated with the high gain introduce specific excess noise and deteriorate the photon number resolution of the SSPM. The probabilistic features of these processes are widely studied because of its significance for the SSPM design, characterization, optimization and application, but the process modeling is mostly based on Monte Carlo simulations and numerical methods. In this study, crosstalk is considered to be a branching Poisson process, and analytical models of probability distribution and excess noise factor (ENF) of SSPM signals based on the Borel distribution as an advance on the geometric distribution models are presented and discussed. The models are found to be in a good agreement with the experimental probability distributions for dark counts and a few photon spectrums in a wide range of fired pixels number as well as with observed super-linear behavior of crosstalk ENF.

The probability distribution of maintenance cost of a system affected by the gamma process of degradation: Finite time solution

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cheng, Tianjin; Pandey, Mahesh D.; Weide, J.A.M. van der

2012-01-01

The stochastic gamma process has been widely used to model uncertain degradation in engineering systems and structures. The optimization of the condition-based maintenance (CBM) policy is typically based on the minimization of the asymptotic cost rate. In the financial planning of a maintenance program, however, a more accurate prediction interval for the cost is needed for prudent decision making. The prediction interval cannot be estimated unless the probability distribution of cost is known. In this context, the asymptotic cost rate has a limited utility. This paper presents the derivation of the probability distribution of maintenance cost, when the system degradation is modelled as a stochastic gamma process. A renewal equation is formulated to derive the characteristic function, then the discrete Fourier transform of the characteristic function leads to the complete probability distribution of cost in a finite time setting. The proposed approach is useful for a precise estimation of prediction limits and optimization of the maintenance cost.

Measuring sensitivity in pharmacoeconomic studies. Refining point sensitivity and range sensitivity by incorporating probability distributions.

Science.gov (United States)

Nuijten, M J

1999-07-01

The aim of the present study is to describe a refinement of a previously presented method, based on the concept of point sensitivity, to deal with uncertainty in economic studies. The original method was refined by the incorporation of probability distributions which allow a more accurate assessment of the level of uncertainty in the model. In addition, a bootstrap method was used to create a probability distribution for a fixed input variable based on a limited number of data points. The original method was limited in that the sensitivity measurement was based on a uniform distribution of the variables and that the overall sensitivity measure was based on a subjectively chosen range which excludes the impact of values outside the range on the overall sensitivity. The concepts of the refined method were illustrated using a Markov model of depression. The application of the refined method substantially changed the ranking of the most sensitive variables compared with the original method. The response rate became the most sensitive variable instead of the 'per diem' for hospitalisation. The refinement of the original method yields sensitivity outcomes, which greater reflect the real uncertainty in economic studies.

Evolution of electron pitch angle distributions across Saturn's middle magnetospheric region from MIMI/LEMMS

Science.gov (United States)

Clark, G.; Paranicas, C.; Santos-Costa, D.; Livi, S.; Krupp, N.; Mitchell, D. G.; Roussos, E.; Tseng, W.-L.

2014-12-01

We provide a global view of ~20 to 800 keV electron pitch angle distributions (PADs) close to Saturn's current sheet using observations from the Cassini MIMI/LEMMS instrument. Previous work indicated that the nature of pitch angle distributions in Saturn's inner to middle magnetosphere changes near the radial distance of 10RS. This work confirms the existence of a PAD transition region. Here we go further and develop a new technique to statistically quantify the spatial profile of butterfly PADs as well as present new spatial trends on the isotropic PAD. Additionally, we perform a case study analysis and show the PADs exhibit strong energy dependent features throughout this transition region. We also present a diffusion theory model based on adiabatic transport, Coulomb interactions with Saturn's neutral gas torus, and an energy dependent radial diffusion coefficient. A data-model comparison reveals that adiabatic transport is the dominant transport mechanism between ~8 to 12RS, however interactions with Saturn's neutral gas torus become dominant inside ~7RS and govern the flux level of ~20 to 800 keV electrons. We have also found that field-aligned fluxes were not well reproduced by our modeling approach. We suggest that wave-particle interactions and/or a polar source of the energetic particles needs further investigation.

A lattice determination of gA and left angle x right angle from overlap fermions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Guertler, M.; Schiller, A.; Streuer, T.; Freie Univ. Berlin

2004-10-01

We present results for the nucleon's axial charge g A and the first moment left angle x right angle of the unpolarized parton distribution function from a simulation of quenched overlap fermions. (orig.)

Exploring non-signalling polytopes with negative probability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Oas, G; Barros, J Acacio de; Carvalhaes, C

2014-01-01

Bipartite and tripartite EPR–Bell type systems are examined via joint quasi-probability distributions where probabilities are permitted to be negative. It is shown that such distributions exist only when the no-signalling condition is satisfied. A characteristic measure, the probability mass, is introduced and, via its minimization, limits the number of quasi-distributions describing a given marginal probability distribution. The minimized probability mass is shown to be an alternative way to characterize non-local systems. Non-signalling polytopes for two to eight settings in the bipartite scenario are examined and compared to prior work. Examining perfect cloning of non-local systems within the tripartite scenario suggests defining two categories of signalling. It is seen that many properties of non-local systems can be efficiently described by quasi-probability theory. (paper)

The effect of alpha incident- and poloidal-angle distributions on blister-induced first-wall erosion

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fenske, G.; Hively, L.; Miley, G.

1979-01-01

The incident velocity distribution of high-energy alpha particles bombarding the first wall of an axisymmetric tokamak is evaluated as a function of poloidal angle (theta). The resulting helium concentration profile as a function of the poloidal angle and the implant depth is calculated for a typical Experimental Power Reactor (EPR) design. The critical helium concentration for blistering is first exceeded at theta approx. 55 0 . Peak concentrations are reduced somewhat through continuous D-T sputtering which, dependent on theta, reduces the blister skin thicknesses. The blistering-induced impurity level is found to increase drastically (< approx. 50%), relative to sputtering-induced impurities, at periodic intervals corresponding to approx. 4000 hours operation when each generation of blister begins to exfoliate. (orig.)

Study of sea-surface slope distribution and its effect on radar backscatter based on Global Precipitation Measurement Ku-band precipitation radar measurements

Science.gov (United States)

Yan, Qiushuang; Zhang, Jie; Fan, Chenqing; Wang, Jing; Meng, Junmin

2018-01-01

The collocated normalized radar backscattering cross-section measurements from the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Ku-band precipitation radar (KuPR) and the winds from the moored buoys are used to study the effect of different sea-surface slope probability density functions (PDFs), including the Gaussian PDF, the Gram-Charlier PDF, and the Liu PDF, on the geometrical optics (GO) model predictions of the radar backscatter at low incidence angles (0 deg to 18 deg) at different sea states. First, the peakedness coefficient in the Liu distribution is determined using the collocations at the normal incidence angle, and the results indicate that the peakedness coefficient is a nonlinear function of the wind speed. Then, the performance of the modified Liu distribution, i.e., Liu distribution using the obtained peakedness coefficient estimate; the Gaussian distribution; and the Gram-Charlier distribution is analyzed. The results show that the GO model predictions with the modified Liu distribution agree best with the KuPR measurements, followed by the predictions with the Gaussian distribution, while the predictions with the Gram-Charlier distribution have larger differences as the total or the slick filtered, not the radar filtered, probability density is included in the distribution. The best-performing distribution changes with incidence angle and changes with wind speed.

Product Distribution from Precursor Bite Angle Variation in Multitopic Alkyne Metathesis: Evidence for a Putative Kinetic Bottleneck.

Science.gov (United States)

Moneypenny, Timothy P; Yang, Anna; Walter, Nathan P; Woods, Toby J; Gray, Danielle L; Zhang, Yang; Moore, Jeffrey S

2018-05-02

In the dynamic synthesis of covalent organic frameworks and molecular cages, the typical synthetic approach involves heuristic methods of discovery. While this approach has yielded many remarkable products, the ability to predict the structural outcome of subjecting a multitopic precursor to dynamic covalent chemistry (DCC) remains a challenge in the field. The synthesis of covalent organic cages is a prime example of this phenomenon, where precursors designed with the intention of affording a specific product may deviate dramatically when the DCC synthesis is attempted. As such, rational design principles are needed to accelerate discovery in cage synthesis using DCC. Herein, we test the hypothesis that precursor bite angle contributes significantly to the energy landscape and product distribution in multitopic alkyne metathesis (AM). By subjecting a series of precursors with varying bite angles to AM, we experimentally demonstrate that the product distribution, and convergence toward product formation, is strongly dependent on this geometric attribute. Surprisingly, we discovered that precursors with the ideal bite angle (60°) do not afford the most efficient pathway to the product. The systematic study reported here illustrates how seemingly minor adjustments in precursor geometry greatly affect the outcome of DCC systems. This research illustrates the importance of fine-tuning precursor geometric parameters in order to successfully realize desirable targets.

Particle size distribution models of small angle neutron scattering pattern on ferro fluids

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sistin Asri Ani; Darminto; Edy Giri Rachman Putra

2009-01-01

The Fe 3 O 4 ferro fluids samples were synthesized by a co-precipitation method. The investigation of ferro fluids microstructure is known to be one of the most important problems because the presence of aggregates and their internal structure influence greatly the properties of ferro fluids. The size and the size dispersion of particle in ferro fluids were determined assuming a log normal distribution of particle radius. The scattering pattern of the measurement by small angle neutron scattering were fitted by the theoretical scattering function of two limitation models are log normal sphere distribution and fractal aggregate. Two types of particle are detected, which are presumably primary particle of 30 Armstrong in radius and secondary fractal aggregate of 200 Armstrong with polydispersity of 0.47 up to 0.53. (author)

Serial Spike Time Correlations Affect Probability Distribution of Joint Spike Events.

Science.gov (United States)

Shahi, Mina; van Vreeswijk, Carl; Pipa, Gordon

2016-01-01

Detecting the existence of temporally coordinated spiking activity, and its role in information processing in the cortex, has remained a major challenge for neuroscience research. Different methods and approaches have been suggested to test whether the observed synchronized events are significantly different from those expected by chance. To analyze the simultaneous spike trains for precise spike correlation, these methods typically model the spike trains as a Poisson process implying that the generation of each spike is independent of all the other spikes. However, studies have shown that neural spike trains exhibit dependence among spike sequences, such as the absolute and relative refractory periods which govern the spike probability of the oncoming action potential based on the time of the last spike, or the bursting behavior, which is characterized by short epochs of rapid action potentials, followed by longer episodes of silence. Here we investigate non-renewal processes with the inter-spike interval distribution model that incorporates spike-history dependence of individual neurons. For that, we use the Monte Carlo method to estimate the full shape of the coincidence count distribution and to generate false positives for coincidence detection. The results show that compared to the distributions based on homogeneous Poisson processes, and also non-Poisson processes, the width of the distribution of joint spike events changes. Non-renewal processes can lead to both heavy tailed or narrow coincidence distribution. We conclude that small differences in the exact autostructure of the point process can cause large differences in the width of a coincidence distribution. Therefore, manipulations of the autostructure for the estimation of significance of joint spike events seem to be inadequate.

Evaluating the suitability of wind speed probability distribution models: A case of study of east and southeast parts of Iran

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alavi, Omid; Mohammadi, Kasra; Mostafaeipour, Ali

2016-01-01

Highlights: • Suitability of different wind speed probability functions is assessed. • 5 stations distributed in east and south-east of Iran are considered as case studies. • Nakagami distribution is tested for first time and compared with 7 other functions. • Due to difference in wind features, best function is not similar for all stations. - Abstract: Precise information of wind speed probability distribution is truly significant for many wind energy applications. The objective of this study is to evaluate the suitability of different probability functions for estimating wind speed distribution at five stations, distributed in the east and southeast of Iran. Nakagami distribution function is utilized for the first time to estimate the distribution of wind speed. The performance of Nakagami function is compared with seven typically used distribution functions. The achieved results reveal that the more effective function is not similar among all stations. Wind speed characteristics, quantity and quality of the recorded wind speed data can be considered as influential parameters on the performance of the distribution functions. Also, the skewness of the recorded wind speed data may have influence on the accuracy of the Nakagami distribution. For Chabahar and Khaf stations the Nakagami distribution shows the highest performance while for Lutak, Rafsanjan and Zabol stations the Gamma, Generalized Extreme Value and Inverse-Gaussian distributions offer the best fits, respectively. Based on the analysis, the Nakagami distribution can generally be considered as an effective distribution since it provides the best fits in 2 stations and ranks 3rd to 5th in the remaining stations; however, due to the close performance of the Nakagami and Weibull distributions and also flexibility of the Weibull function as its widely proven feature, more assessments on the performance of the Nakagami distribution are required.

Rapid flattening of butterfly pitch angle distributions of radiation belt electrons by whistler-mode chorus

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Chang; Su, Zhenpeng; Xiao, Fuliang; Zheng, Huinan; Wang, Yuming; Wang, Shui; Spence, H. E.; Reeves, G. D.; Baker, D. N.; Blake, J. B.; Funsten, H. O.

2016-08-01

Van Allen radiation belt electrons exhibit complex dynamics during geomagnetically active periods. Investigation of electron pitch angle distributions (PADs) can provide important information on the dominant physical mechanisms controlling radiation belt behaviors. Here we report a storm time radiation belt event where energetic electron PADs changed from butterfly distributions to normal or flattop distributions within several hours. Van Allen Probes observations showed that the flattening of butterfly PADs was closely related to the occurrence of whistler-mode chorus waves. Two-dimensional quasi-linear STEERB simulations demonstrate that the observed chorus can resonantly accelerate the near-equatorially trapped electrons and rapidly flatten the corresponding electron butterfly PADs. These results provide a new insight on how chorus waves affect the dynamic evolution of radiation belt electrons.

Rapid flattening of butterfly pitch angle distributions of radiation belt electrons by whistler-mode chorus

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yang, Chang; Changsha University of Science and Technology, Changsha; Su, Zhenpeng; Xiao, Fuliang; Zheng, Huinan

2016-01-01

Van Allen radiation belt electrons exhibit complex dynamics during geomagnetically active periods. Investigation of electron pitch angle distributions (PADs) can provide important information on the dominant physical mechanisms controlling radiation belt behaviors. In this paper, we report a storm time radiation belt event where energetic electron PADs changed from butterfly distributions to normal or flattop distributions within several hours. Van Allen Probes observations showed that the flattening of butterfly PADs was closely related to the occurrence of whistler-mode chorus waves. Two-dimensional quasi-linear STEERB simulations demonstrate that the observed chorus can resonantly accelerate the near-equatorially trapped electrons and rapidly flatten the corresponding electron butterfly PADs. Finally, these results provide a new insight on how chorus waves affect the dynamic evolution of radiation belt electrons.

Failure probability under parameter uncertainty.

Science.gov (United States)

Gerrard, R; Tsanakas, A

2011-05-01

In many problems of risk analysis, failure is equivalent to the event of a random risk factor exceeding a given threshold. Failure probabilities can be controlled if a decisionmaker is able to set the threshold at an appropriate level. This abstract situation applies, for example, to environmental risks with infrastructure controls; to supply chain risks with inventory controls; and to insurance solvency risks with capital controls. However, uncertainty around the distribution of the risk factor implies that parameter error will be present and the measures taken to control failure probabilities may not be effective. We show that parameter uncertainty increases the probability (understood as expected frequency) of failures. For a large class of loss distributions, arising from increasing transformations of location-scale families (including the log-normal, Weibull, and Pareto distributions), the article shows that failure probabilities can be exactly calculated, as they are independent of the true (but unknown) parameters. Hence it is possible to obtain an explicit measure of the effect of parameter uncertainty on failure probability. Failure probability can be controlled in two different ways: (1) by reducing the nominal required failure probability, depending on the size of the available data set, and (2) by modifying of the distribution itself that is used to calculate the risk control. Approach (1) corresponds to a frequentist/regulatory view of probability, while approach (2) is consistent with a Bayesian/personalistic view. We furthermore show that the two approaches are consistent in achieving the required failure probability. Finally, we briefly discuss the effects of data pooling and its systemic risk implications. © 2010 Society for Risk Analysis.

Depth distribution of secondary phases in kesterite Cu2ZnSnS4 by angle-resolved X-ray absorption spectroscopy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. Just

2017-12-01

Full Text Available The depth distribution of secondary phases in the solar cell absorber material Cu2ZnSnS4 (CZTS is quantitatively investigated using X-ray Absorption Near Edge Structure (XANES analysis at the K-edge of sulfur at varying incidence angles. Varying information depths from several nanometers up to the full thickness is achieved. A quantitative profile of the phase distribution is obtained by a self-consistent fit of a multilayer model to the XANES spectra for different angles. Single step co-evaporated CZTS thin-films are found to exhibit zinc and copper sulfide secondary phases preferentially at the front or back interfaces of the film.

New method for extracting tumors in PET/CT images based on the probability distribution

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nitta, Shuhei; Hontani, Hidekata; Hukami, Tadanori

2006-01-01

In this report, we propose a method for extracting tumors from PET/CT images by referring to the probability distribution of pixel values in the PET image. In the proposed method, first, the organs that normally take up fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) (e.g., the liver, kidneys, and brain) are extracted. Then, the tumors are extracted from the images. The distribution of pixel values in PET images differs in each region of the body. Therefore, the threshold for detecting tumors is adaptively determined by referring to the distribution. We applied the proposed method to 37 cases and evaluated its performance. This report also presents the results of experiments comparing the proposed method and another method in which the pixel values are normalized for extracting tumors. (author)

A comparison of the probability distribution of observed substorm magnitude with that predicted by a minimal substorm model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. K. Morley

2007-11-01

Full Text Available We compare the probability distributions of substorm magnetic bay magnitudes from observations and a minimal substorm model. The observed distribution was derived previously and independently using the IL index from the IMAGE magnetometer network. The model distribution is derived from a synthetic AL index time series created using real solar wind data and a minimal substorm model, which was previously shown to reproduce observed substorm waiting times. There are two free parameters in the model which scale the contributions to AL from the directly-driven DP2 electrojet and loading-unloading DP1 electrojet, respectively. In a limited region of the 2-D parameter space of the model, the probability distribution of modelled substorm bay magnitudes is not significantly different to the observed distribution. The ranges of the two parameters giving acceptable (95% confidence level agreement are consistent with expectations using results from other studies. The approximately linear relationship between the two free parameters over these ranges implies that the substorm magnitude simply scales linearly with the solar wind power input at the time of substorm onset.

On the Meta Distribution of Coverage Probability in Uplink Cellular Networks

KAUST Repository

Elsawy, Hesham

2017-04-07

This letter studies the meta distribution of coverage probability (CP), within a stochastic geometry framework, for cellular uplink transmission with fractional path-loss inversion power control. Using the widely accepted Poisson point process (PPP) for modeling the spatial locations of base stations (BSs), we obtain the percentiles of users that achieve a target uplink CP over an arbitrary, but fixed, realization of the PPP. To this end, the effect of the users activity factor (p) and the path-loss compensation factor () on the uplink performance are analyzed. The results show that decreasing p and/or increasing reduce the CP variation around the spatially averaged value.

Conditional probability distribution associated to the E-M image reconstruction algorithm for neutron stimulated emission tomography

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Viana, R.S.; Yoriyaz, H.; Santos, A.

2011-01-01

The Expectation-Maximization (E-M) algorithm is an iterative computational method for maximum likelihood (M-L) estimates, useful in a variety of incomplete-data problems. Due to its stochastic nature, one of the most relevant applications of E-M algorithm is the reconstruction of emission tomography images. In this paper, the statistical formulation of the E-M algorithm was applied to the in vivo spectrographic imaging of stable isotopes called Neutron Stimulated Emission Computed Tomography (NSECT). In the process of E-M algorithm iteration, the conditional probability distribution plays a very important role to achieve high quality image. This present work proposes an alternative methodology for the generation of the conditional probability distribution associated to the E-M reconstruction algorithm, using the Monte Carlo code MCNP5 and with the application of the reciprocity theorem. (author)

Conditional probability distribution associated to the E-M image reconstruction algorithm for neutron stimulated emission tomography

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Viana, R.S.; Yoriyaz, H.; Santos, A., E-mail: rodrigossviana@gmail.com, E-mail: hyoriyaz@ipen.br, E-mail: asantos@ipen.br [Instituto de Pesquisas Energeticas e Nucleares (IPEN/CNEN-SP), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil)

2011-07-01

The Expectation-Maximization (E-M) algorithm is an iterative computational method for maximum likelihood (M-L) estimates, useful in a variety of incomplete-data problems. Due to its stochastic nature, one of the most relevant applications of E-M algorithm is the reconstruction of emission tomography images. In this paper, the statistical formulation of the E-M algorithm was applied to the in vivo spectrographic imaging of stable isotopes called Neutron Stimulated Emission Computed Tomography (NSECT). In the process of E-M algorithm iteration, the conditional probability distribution plays a very important role to achieve high quality image. This present work proposes an alternative methodology for the generation of the conditional probability distribution associated to the E-M reconstruction algorithm, using the Monte Carlo code MCNP5 and with the application of the reciprocity theorem. (author)

A general formula for computing maximum proportion correct scores in various psychophysical paradigms with arbitrary probability distributions of stimulus observations.

Science.gov (United States)

Dai, Huanping; Micheyl, Christophe

2015-05-01

Proportion correct (Pc) is a fundamental measure of task performance in psychophysics. The maximum Pc score that can be achieved by an optimal (maximum-likelihood) observer in a given task is of both theoretical and practical importance, because it sets an upper limit on human performance. Within the framework of signal detection theory, analytical solutions for computing the maximum Pc score have been established for several common experimental paradigms under the assumption of Gaussian additive internal noise. However, as the scope of applications of psychophysical signal detection theory expands, the need is growing for psychophysicists to compute maximum Pc scores for situations involving non-Gaussian (internal or stimulus-induced) noise. In this article, we provide a general formula for computing the maximum Pc in various psychophysical experimental paradigms for arbitrary probability distributions of sensory activity. Moreover, easy-to-use MATLAB code implementing the formula is provided. Practical applications of the formula are illustrated, and its accuracy is evaluated, for two paradigms and two types of probability distributions (uniform and Gaussian). The results demonstrate that Pc scores computed using the formula remain accurate even for continuous probability distributions, as long as the conversion from continuous probability density functions to discrete probability mass functions is supported by a sufficiently high sampling resolution. We hope that the exposition in this article, and the freely available MATLAB code, facilitates calculations of maximum performance for a wider range of experimental situations, as well as explorations of the impact of different assumptions concerning internal-noise distributions on maximum performance in psychophysical experiments.

The probability distribution of extreme precipitation

Science.gov (United States)

Korolev, V. Yu.; Gorshenin, A. K.

2017-12-01

On the basis of the negative binomial distribution of the duration of wet periods calculated per day, an asymptotic model is proposed for distributing the maximum daily rainfall volume during the wet period, having the form of a mixture of Frechet distributions and coinciding with the distribution of the positive degree of a random variable having the Fisher-Snedecor distribution. The method of proving the corresponding result is based on limit theorems for extreme order statistics in samples of a random volume with a mixed Poisson distribution. The adequacy of the models proposed and methods of their statistical analysis is demonstrated by the example of estimating the extreme distribution parameters based on real data.

Snow-melt flood frequency analysis by means of copula based 2D probability distributions for the Narew River in Poland

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bogdan Ozga-Zielinski

2016-06-01

New hydrological insights for the region: The results indicated that the 2D normal probability distribution model gives a better probabilistic description of snowmelt floods characterized by the 2-dimensional random variable (Qmax,f, Vf compared to the elliptical Gaussian copula and Archimedean 1-parameter Gumbel–Hougaard copula models, in particular from the view point of probability of exceedance as well as complexity and time of computation. Nevertheless, the copula approach offers a new perspective in estimating the 2D probability distribution for multidimensional random variables. Results showed that the 2D model for snowmelt floods built using the Gumbel–Hougaard copula is much better than the model built using the Gaussian copula.

Uncertainty of Hydrological Drought Characteristics with Copula Functions and Probability Distributions: A Case Study of Weihe River, China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Panpan Zhao

2017-05-01

Full Text Available This study investigates the sensitivity and uncertainty of hydrological droughts frequencies and severity in the Weihe Basin, China during 1960–2012, by using six commonly used univariate probability distributions and three Archimedean copulas to fit the marginal and joint distributions of drought characteristics. The Anderson-Darling method is used for testing the goodness-of-fit of the univariate model, and the Akaike information criterion (AIC is applied to select the best distribution and copula functions. The results demonstrate that there is a very strong correlation between drought duration and drought severity in three stations. The drought return period varies depending on the selected marginal distributions and copula functions and, with an increase of the return period, the differences become larger. In addition, the estimated return periods (both co-occurrence and joint from the best-fitted copulas are the closet to those from empirical distribution. Therefore, it is critical to select the appropriate marginal distribution and copula function to model the hydrological drought frequency and severity. The results of this study can not only help drought investigation to select a suitable probability distribution and copulas function, but are also useful for regional water resource management. However, a few limitations remain in this study, such as the assumption of stationary of runoff series.

Probability distribution of dose rates in the body tissue as a function of the rhytm of Sr90 administration and the age of animals

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rasin, I.M.; Sarapul'tsev, I.A.

1975-01-01

The probability distribution of tissue radiation doses in the skeleton were studied in experiments on swines and dogs. When introducing Sr-90 into the organism from the day of birth till 90 days dose rate probability distribution is characterized by one, or, for adult animals, by two independent aggregates. Each of these aggregates correspond to the normal distribution law

[The relationship between angle of puncture and distribution of bone cement of unilateral percutaneous kyphoplasty for the treatment of thoracolumbar compression fractures].

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Xiang-fu; Fan, You-fu; Shi, Rui-fang; Deng, Qiang; Li, Zhong-feng

2015-08-01

To explore the relationship of bone cement distribution and the puncture angle in the treatment of thoracolumbar compression fractures with unilateral percutaneous kyphoplasty (PKP). The clinical data of 37 patients with thoracolumbar osteoporotic compression fractures underwent PKP between January 2013 to March 2014 were retrospectively analyzed, all punctures were performed unilaterally. There were 6 males, aged from 65 to 78 years old with an average of (71.83 ± 6.15) years; and 31 females, aged from 57 to 89 years old with an average of (71.06 ± 7.89) years. Imaging data were analyzed and puncture angle and puncture point were measured before operation. According to the measured data, the puncture were performeds during the operation. Distribution area of bone cement were calculated by X-rays data after operation. The effect of bone cement distribution on suitable puncture angle was analyzed; VAS score was used to evaluate the clinical effects. The puncture angle of thoracic vertebrae in T8-T12 was from 28° to 33° with an average 30.4°; and the puncture angle of lumbar vertebrae in L1-L5 was from 28° to 35° with an average of 31.3°. Postoperative X-rays showed the area ratios of bilateral bone cement was 0.97 ± 0.15. Bilateral diffuse area were basic equal. Postoperative VAS score decreased significantly (1.89 ± 1.29 vs 7.03 ± 1.42). Through measure imaging data before operation with PKP,the puncture point and entry point can be confirmed. According the measured data to puncture during operation, unilateral puncture can reach the distribution effect of the bilateral puncture in the treatment of thoracolumbar compression fractures.

Signatures of the various regions of the outer magnetosphere in the pitch angle distributions of energetic particles

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

West, H.I. Jr.

1978-12-11

An account is given of the obervations of the pitch angle distributions of energetic particles in the near equatorial regions of the Earth's magnetosphere. The emphasis is on relating the observed distributions to the field configuration responsible for the observed effects. The observed effects relate to drift-shell splitting, to the breakdown of adiabatic guiding center motion in regions of sharp field curvature relative to partial gyro radii, to wave-particle interactions, and to moving field configurations. 39 references.

Assessing the Adequacy of Probability Distributions for Estimating the Extreme Events of Air Temperature in Dabaa Region

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

El-Shanshoury, Gh.I.

2015-01-01

Assessing the adequacy of probability distributions for estimating the extreme events of air temperature in Dabaa region is one of the pre-requisite s for any design purpose at Dabaa site which can be achieved by probability approach. In the present study, three extreme value distributions are considered and compared to estimate the extreme events of monthly and annual maximum and minimum temperature. These distributions include the Gumbel/Frechet distributions for estimating the extreme maximum values and Gumbel /Weibull distributions for estimating the extreme minimum values. Lieblein technique and Method of Moments are applied for estimating the distribution para meters. Subsequently, the required design values with a given return period of exceedance are obtained. Goodness-of-Fit tests involving Kolmogorov-Smirnov and Anderson-Darling are used for checking the adequacy of fitting the method/distribution for the estimation of maximum/minimum temperature. Mean Absolute Relative Deviation, Root Mean Square Error and Relative Mean Square Deviation are calculated, as the performance indicators, to judge which distribution and method of parameters estimation are the most appropriate one to estimate the extreme temperatures. The present study indicated that the Weibull distribution combined with Method of Moment estimators gives the highest fit, most reliable, accurate predictions for estimating the extreme monthly and annual minimum temperature. The Gumbel distribution combined with Method of Moment estimators showed the highest fit, accurate predictions for the estimation of the extreme monthly and annual maximum temperature except for July, August, October and November. The study shows that the combination of Frechet distribution with Method of Moment is the most accurate for estimating the extreme maximum temperature in July, August and November months while t he Gumbel distribution and Lieblein technique is the best for October

Probability distribution of pitting corrosion depth and rate in underground pipelines: A Monte Carlo study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Caleyo, F.; Velazquez, J.C.; Valor, A.; Hallen, J.M.

2009-01-01

The probability distributions of external-corrosion pit depth and pit growth rate were investigated in underground pipelines using Monte Carlo simulations. The study combines a predictive pit growth model developed by the authors with the observed distributions of the model variables in a range of soils. Depending on the pipeline age, any of the three maximal extreme value distributions, i.e. Weibull, Frechet or Gumbel, can arise as the best fit to the pitting depth and rate data. The Frechet distribution best fits the corrosion data for long exposure periods. This can be explained by considering the long-term stabilization of the diffusion-controlled pit growth. The findings of the study provide reliability analysts with accurate information regarding the stochastic characteristics of the pitting damage in underground pipelines.

Probability distribution of pitting corrosion depth and rate in underground pipelines: A Monte Carlo study

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Caleyo, F. [Departamento de Ingenieria Metalurgica, ESIQIE, IPN, UPALM Edif. 7, Zacatenco, 07738 Mexico, D.F. (Mexico)], E-mail: fcaleyo@gmail.com; Velazquez, J.C. [Departamento de Ingenieria Metalurgica, ESIQIE, IPN, UPALM Edif. 7, Zacatenco, 07738 Mexico, D.F. (Mexico); Valor, A. [Facultad de Fisica, Universidad de La Habana, San Lazaro y L, Vedado, 10400, La Habana (Cuba); Hallen, J.M. [Departamento de Ingenieria Metalurgica, ESIQIE, IPN, UPALM Edif. 7, Zacatenco, 07738 Mexico, D.F. (Mexico)

2009-09-15

The probability distributions of external-corrosion pit depth and pit growth rate were investigated in underground pipelines using Monte Carlo simulations. The study combines a predictive pit growth model developed by the authors with the observed distributions of the model variables in a range of soils. Depending on the pipeline age, any of the three maximal extreme value distributions, i.e. Weibull, Frechet or Gumbel, can arise as the best fit to the pitting depth and rate data. The Frechet distribution best fits the corrosion data for long exposure periods. This can be explained by considering the long-term stabilization of the diffusion-controlled pit growth. The findings of the study provide reliability analysts with accurate information regarding the stochastic characteristics of the pitting damage in underground pipelines.

A probability space for quantum models

Science.gov (United States)

Lemmens, L. F.

2017-06-01

A probability space contains a set of outcomes, a collection of events formed by subsets of the set of outcomes and probabilities defined for all events. A reformulation in terms of propositions allows to use the maximum entropy method to assign the probabilities taking some constraints into account. The construction of a probability space for quantum models is determined by the choice of propositions, choosing the constraints and making the probability assignment by the maximum entropy method. This approach shows, how typical quantum distributions such as Maxwell-Boltzmann, Fermi-Dirac and Bose-Einstein are partly related with well-known classical distributions. The relation between the conditional probability density, given some averages as constraints and the appropriate ensemble is elucidated.

Matrix-exponential distributions in applied probability

CERN Document Server

Bladt, Mogens

2017-01-01

This book contains an in-depth treatment of matrix-exponential (ME) distributions and their sub-class of phase-type (PH) distributions. Loosely speaking, an ME distribution is obtained through replacing the intensity parameter in an exponential distribution by a matrix. The ME distributions can also be identified as the class of non-negative distributions with rational Laplace transforms. If the matrix has the structure of a sub-intensity matrix for a Markov jump process we obtain a PH distribution which allows for nice probabilistic interpretations facilitating the derivation of exact solutions and closed form formulas. The full potential of ME and PH unfolds in their use in stochastic modelling. Several chapters on generic applications, like renewal theory, random walks and regenerative processes, are included together with some specific examples from queueing theory and insurance risk. We emphasize our intention towards applications by including an extensive treatment on statistical methods for PH distribu...

Probability Distribution for Flowing Interval Spacing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

S. Kuzio

2004-01-01

Fracture spacing is a key hydrologic parameter in analyses of matrix diffusion. Although the individual fractures that transmit flow in the saturated zone (SZ) cannot be identified directly, it is possible to determine the fractured zones that transmit flow from flow meter survey observations. The fractured zones that transmit flow as identified through borehole flow meter surveys have been defined in this report as flowing intervals. The flowing interval spacing is measured between the midpoints of each flowing interval. The determination of flowing interval spacing is important because the flowing interval spacing parameter is a key hydrologic parameter in SZ transport modeling, which impacts the extent of matrix diffusion in the SZ volcanic matrix. The output of this report is input to the ''Saturated Zone Flow and Transport Model Abstraction'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 170042]). Specifically, the analysis of data and development of a data distribution reported herein is used to develop the uncertainty distribution for the flowing interval spacing parameter for the SZ transport abstraction model. Figure 1-1 shows the relationship of this report to other model reports that also pertain to flow and transport in the SZ. Figure 1-1 also shows the flow of key information among the SZ reports. It should be noted that Figure 1-1 does not contain a complete representation of the data and parameter inputs and outputs of all SZ reports, nor does it show inputs external to this suite of SZ reports. Use of the developed flowing interval spacing probability distribution is subject to the limitations of the assumptions discussed in Sections 5 and 6 of this analysis report. The number of fractures in a flowing interval is not known. Therefore, the flowing intervals are assumed to be composed of one flowing zone in the transport simulations. This analysis may overestimate the flowing interval spacing because the number of fractures that contribute to a flowing interval cannot be

p-adic probability interpretation of Bell's inequality

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Khrennikov, A.

1995-01-01

We study the violation of Bell's inequality using a p-adic generalization of the theory of probability. p-adic probability is introduced as a limit of relative frequencies but this limit exists with respect to a p-adic metric. In particular, negative probability distributions are well defined on the basis of the frequency definition. This new type of stochastics can be used to describe hidden-variables distributions of some quantum models. If the hidden variables have a p-adic probability distribution, Bell's inequality is not valid and it is not necessary to discuss the experimental violations of this inequality. ((orig.))

An oilspill trajectory analysis model with a variable wind deflection angle

Science.gov (United States)

Samuels, W.B.; Huang, N.E.; Amstutz, D.E.

1982-01-01

The oilspill trajectory movement algorithm consists of a vector sum of the surface drift component due to wind and the surface current component. In the U.S. Geological Survey oilspill trajectory analysis model, the surface drift component is assumed to be 3.5% of the wind speed and is rotated 20 degrees clockwise to account for Coriolis effects in the Northern Hemisphere. Field and laboratory data suggest, however, that the deflection angle of the surface drift current can be highly variable. An empirical formula, based on field observations and theoretical arguments relating wind speed to deflection angle, was used to calculate a new deflection angle at each time step in the model. Comparisons of oilspill contact probabilities to coastal areas calculated for constant and variable deflection angles showed that the model is insensitive to this changing angle at low wind speeds. At high wind speeds, some statistically significant differences in contact probabilities did appear. ?? 1982.

Finite Element Analysis of the Effect of Superstructure Materials and Loading Angle on Stress Distribution around the Implant

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jafari K

2014-12-01

Full Text Available Statement of Problem: A general process in implant design is to determine the reason of possible problems and to find the relevant solutions. The success of the implant depends on the control technique of implant biomechanical conditions. Objectives: The goal of this study was to evaluate the influence of both abutment and framework materials on the stress of the bone around the implant by using threedimensional finite element analysis. Materials and Methods: A three-dimensional model of a patient’s premaxillary bone was fabricated using Cone Beam Computed Tomography (CBCT. Then, three types of abutment from gold, nickel-chromium and zirconia and also three types of crown frame from silver-palladium, nickel-chromium and zirconia were designed. Finally, a 178 N force at angles of zero, 30 and 45 degrees was exerted on the implant axis and the maximum stress and strain in the trabecular, cortical bones and cement was calculated. Results: With changes of the materials and mechanical properties of abutment and frame, little difference was observed in the level and distribution pattern of stress. The stress level was increased with the rise in the angle of pressure exertion. The highest stress concentration was related to the force at the angle of 45 degrees. The results of the cement analysis proved an inverse relationship between the rate of elastic modulus of the frame material and that of the maximum stress in the cement. Conclusions: The impact of the angle at which the force was applied was more significant in stress distribution than that of abutment and framework core materials.

Measuring Robustness of Timetables at Stations using a Probability Distribution

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jensen, Lars Wittrup; Landex, Alex

Stations are often the limiting capacity factor in a railway network. This induces interdependencies, especially at at-grade junctions, causing network effects. This paper presents three traditional methods that can be used to measure the complexity of a station, indicating the robustness...... of the station’s infrastructure layout and plan of operation. However, these three methods do not take the timetable at the station into consideration. Therefore, two methods are introduced in this paper, making it possible to estimate the robustness of different timetables at a station or different...... infrastructure layouts given a timetable. These two methods provide different precision at the expense of a more complex calculation process. The advanced and more precise method is based on a probability distribution that can describe the expected delay between two trains as a function of the buffer time...

Description of atomic burials in compact globular proteins by Fermi-Dirac probability distributions.

Science.gov (United States)

Gomes, Antonio L C; de Rezende, Júlia R; Pereira de Araújo, Antônio F; Shakhnovich, Eugene I

2007-02-01

We perform a statistical analysis of atomic distributions as a function of the distance R from the molecular geometrical center in a nonredundant set of compact globular proteins. The number of atoms increases quadratically for small R, indicating a constant average density inside the core, reaches a maximum at a size-dependent distance R(max), and falls rapidly for larger R. The empirical curves turn out to be consistent with the volume increase of spherical concentric solid shells and a Fermi-Dirac distribution in which the distance R plays the role of an effective atomic energy epsilon(R) = R. The effective chemical potential mu governing the distribution increases with the number of residues, reflecting the size of the protein globule, while the temperature parameter beta decreases. Interestingly, betamu is not as strongly dependent on protein size and appears to be tuned to maintain approximately half of the atoms in the high density interior and the other half in the exterior region of rapidly decreasing density. A normalized size-independent distribution was obtained for the atomic probability as a function of the reduced distance, r = R/R(g), where R(g) is the radius of gyration. The global normalized Fermi distribution, F(r), can be reasonably decomposed in Fermi-like subdistributions for different atomic types tau, F(tau)(r), with Sigma(tau)F(tau)(r) = F(r), which depend on two additional parameters mu(tau) and h(tau). The chemical potential mu(tau) affects a scaling prefactor and depends on the overall frequency of the corresponding atomic type, while the maximum position of the subdistribution is determined by h(tau), which appears in a type-dependent atomic effective energy, epsilon(tau)(r) = h(tau)r, and is strongly correlated to available hydrophobicity scales. Better adjustments are obtained when the effective energy is not assumed to be necessarily linear, or epsilon(tau)*(r) = h(tau)*r(alpha,), in which case a correlation with hydrophobicity

An investigation on effect of geometrical parameters on spray cone angle and droplet size distribution of a two-fluid atomizer

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Shafaee, Maziar; Banitabaei, Sayed Abdolhossein; Esfahanian, Vahid; Ashjaee, Mehdi [Tehran University, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

2011-12-15

A visual study is conducted to determine the effect of geometrical parameters of a two-fluid atomizer on its spray cone angle. The liquid (water) jets exit from six peripheral inclined orifices and are introduced to a high speed gas (air) stream in the gravitational direction. Using a high speed imaging system, the spray cone angle has been determined in constant operational conditions, i.e., Reynolds and Weber numbers for different nozzle geometries. Also, the droplet sizes (Sauter mean diameter) and their distributions have been determined using Malvern Master Sizer x. The investigated geometrical parameters are the liquid jet diameter, liquid port angle and the length of the gas-liquid mixing chamber. The results show that among these parameters, the liquid jet diameter has a significant effect on spray cone angle. In addition, an empirical correlation has been obtained to predict the spray cone angle of the present two-fluid atomizer in terms of nozzle geometries.

Stochastic Economic Dispatch with Wind using Versatile Probability Distribution and L-BFGS-B Based Dual Decomposition

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Huang, Shaojun; Sun, Yuanzhang; Wu, Qiuwei

2018-01-01

This paper focuses on economic dispatch (ED) in power systems with intermittent wind power, which is a very critical issue in future power systems. A stochastic ED problem is formed based on the recently proposed versatile probability distribution (VPD) of wind power. The problem is then analyzed...

Electron Source Brightness and Illumination Semi-Angle Distribution Measurement in a Transmission Electron Microscope.

Science.gov (United States)

Börrnert, Felix; Renner, Julian; Kaiser, Ute

2018-05-21

The electron source brightness is an important parameter in an electron microscope. Reliable and easy brightness measurement routes are not easily found. A determination method for the illumination semi-angle distribution in transmission electron microscopy is even less well documented. Herein, we report a simple measurement route for both entities and demonstrate it on a state-of-the-art instrument. The reduced axial brightness of the FEI X-FEG with a monochromator was determined to be larger than 108 A/(m2 sr V).

Introduction and application of non-stationary standardized precipitation index considering probability distribution function and return period

Science.gov (United States)

Park, Junehyeong; Sung, Jang Hyun; Lim, Yoon-Jin; Kang, Hyun-Suk

2018-05-01

The widely used meteorological drought index, the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), basically assumes stationarity, but recent changes in the climate have led to a need to review this hypothesis. In this study, a new non-stationary SPI that considers not only the modified probability distribution parameter but also the return period under the non-stationary process was proposed. The results were evaluated for two severe drought cases during the last 10 years in South Korea. As a result, SPIs considered that the non-stationary hypothesis underestimated the drought severity than the stationary SPI despite that these past two droughts were recognized as significantly severe droughts. It may be caused by that the variances of summer and autumn precipitation become larger over time then it can make the probability distribution wider than before. This implies that drought expressions by statistical index such as SPI can be distorted by stationary assumption and cautious approach is needed when deciding drought level considering climate changes.

Analyses of moments in pseudorapidity intervals at √s = 546 GeV by means of two probability distributions in pure-birth process

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Biyajima, M.; Shirane, K.; Suzuki, N.

1988-01-01

Moments in pseudorapidity intervals at the CERN Sp-barpS collider (√s = 546 GeV) are analyzed by means of two probability distributions in the pure-birth stochastic process. Our results show that a probability distribution obtained from the Poisson distribution as an initial condition is more useful than that obtained from the Kronecker δ function. Analyses of moments by Koba-Nielsen-Olesen scaling functions derived from solutions of the pure-birth stochastic process are also made. Moreover, analyses of preliminary data at √s = 200 and 900 GeV are added

The power of hard-sphere models: explaining side-chain dihedral angle distributions of Thr and Val.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhou, Alice Qinhua; O'Hern, Corey S; Regan, Lynne

2012-05-16

The energy functions used to predict protein structures typically include both molecular-mechanics and knowledge-based terms. In contrast, our approach is to develop robust physics- and geometry-based methods. Here, we investigate to what extent simple hard-sphere models can be used to predict side-chain conformations. The distributions of the side-chain dihedral angle χ(1) of Val and Thr in proteins of known structure show distinctive features: Val side chains predominantly adopt χ(1) = 180°, whereas Thr side chains typically adopt χ(1) = 60° and 300° (i.e., χ(1) = ±60° or g- and g(+) configurations). Several hypotheses have been proposed to explain these differences, including interresidue steric clashes and hydrogen-bonding interactions. In contrast, we show that the observed side-chain dihedral angle distributions for both Val and Thr can be explained using only local steric interactions in a dipeptide mimetic. Our results emphasize the power of simple physical approaches and their importance for future advances in protein engineering and design. Copyright © 2012 Biophysical Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Probability distribution of magnetization in the one-dimensional Ising model: effects of boundary conditions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Antal, T [Physics Department, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, BC V5A 1S6 (Canada); Droz, M [Departement de Physique Theorique, Universite de Geneve, CH 1211 Geneva 4 (Switzerland); Racz, Z [Institute for Theoretical Physics, Eoetvoes University, 1117 Budapest, Pazmany setany 1/a (Hungary)

2004-02-06

Finite-size scaling functions are investigated both for the mean-square magnetization fluctuations and for the probability distribution of the magnetization in the one-dimensional Ising model. The scaling functions are evaluated in the limit of the temperature going to zero (T {yields} 0), the size of the system going to infinity (N {yields} {infinity}) while N[1 - tanh(J/k{sub B}T)] is kept finite (J being the nearest neighbour coupling). Exact calculations using various boundary conditions (periodic, antiperiodic, free, block) demonstrate explicitly how the scaling functions depend on the boundary conditions. We also show that the block (small part of a large system) magnetization distribution results are identical to those obtained for free boundary conditions.

Understanding the distinctively skewed and heavy tailed character of atmospheric and oceanic probability distributions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sardeshmukh, Prashant D., E-mail: Prashant.D.Sardeshmukh@noaa.gov [CIRES, University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado 80309 (United States); NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, Colorado 80305 (United States); Penland, Cécile [NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, Colorado 80305 (United States)

2015-03-15

The probability distributions of large-scale atmospheric and oceanic variables are generally skewed and heavy-tailed. We argue that their distinctive departures from Gaussianity arise fundamentally from the fact that in a quadratically nonlinear system with a quadratic invariant, the coupling coefficients between system components are not constant but depend linearly on the system state in a distinctive way. In particular, the skewness arises from a tendency of the system trajectory to linger near states of weak coupling. We show that the salient features of the observed non-Gaussianity can be captured in the simplest such nonlinear 2-component system. If the system is stochastically forced and linearly damped, with one component damped much more strongly than the other, then the strongly damped fast component becomes effectively decoupled from the weakly damped slow component, and its impact on the slow component can be approximated as a stochastic noise forcing plus an augmented nonlinear damping. In the limit of large time-scale separation, the nonlinear augmentation of the damping becomes small, and the noise forcing can be approximated as an additive noise plus a correlated additive and multiplicative noise (CAM noise) forcing. Much of the diversity of observed large-scale atmospheric and oceanic probability distributions can be interpreted in this minimal framework.

Towards a theoretical determination of the geographical probability distribution of meteoroid impacts on Earth

Science.gov (United States)

Zuluaga, Jorge I.; Sucerquia, Mario

2018-06-01

Tunguska and Chelyabinsk impact events occurred inside a geographical area of only 3.4 per cent of the Earth's surface. Although two events hardly constitute a statistically significant demonstration of a geographical pattern of impacts, their spatial coincidence is at least tantalizing. To understand if this concurrence reflects an underlying geographical and/or temporal pattern, we must aim at predicting the spatio-temporal distribution of meteoroid impacts on Earth. For this purpose we designed, implemented, and tested a novel numerical technique, the `Gravitational Ray Tracing' (GRT) designed to compute the relative impact probability (RIP) on the surface of any planet. GRT is inspired by the so-called ray-casting techniques used to render realistic images of complex 3D scenes. In this paper we describe the method and the results of testing it at the time of large impact events. Our findings suggest a non-trivial pattern of impact probabilities at any given time on the Earth. Locations at 60-90° from the apex are more prone to impacts, especially at midnight. Counterintuitively, sites close to apex direction have the lowest RIP, while in the antapex RIP are slightly larger than average. We present here preliminary maps of RIP at the time of Tunguska and Chelyabinsk events and found no evidence of a spatial or temporal pattern, suggesting that their coincidence was fortuitous. We apply the GRT method to compute theoretical RIP at the location and time of 394 large fireballs. Although the predicted spatio-temporal impact distribution matches marginally the observed events, we successfully predict their impact speed distribution.

Optimized chord and twist angle distributions of wind turbine blade considering Reynolds number effects

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wang, L.; Tang, X. [Univ. of Central Lancashire. Engineering and Physical Sciences, Preston (United Kingdom); Liu, X. [Univ. of Cumbria. Sustainable Engineering, Workington (United Kingdom)

2012-07-01

The aerodynamic performance of a wind turbine depends very much on its blade geometric design, typically based on the blade element momentum (BEM) theory, which divides the blade into several blade elements. In current blade design practices based on Schmitz rotor design theory, the blade geometric parameters including chord and twist angle distributions are determined based on airfoil aerodynamic data at a specific Reynolds number. However, rotating wind turbine blade elements operate at different Reynolds numbers due to variable wind speed and different blade span locations. Therefore, the blade design through Schmitz rotor theory at a specific Reynolds number does not necessarily provide the best power performance under operational conditions. This paper aims to provide an optimal blade design strategy for horizontal-axis wind turbines operating at different Reynolds numbers. A fixed-pitch variable-speed (FPVS) wind turbine with S809 airfoil is chosen as a case study and a Matlab program which considers Reynolds number effects is developed to determine the optimized chord and twist angle distributions of the blade. The performance of the optimized blade is compared with that of the preliminary blade which is designed based on Schmitz rotor design theory at a specific Reynolds number. The results demonstrate that the proposed blade design optimization strategy can improve the power performance of the wind turbine. This approach can be further developed for any practice of horizontal axis wind turbine blade design. (Author)

Multiscale probability distribution of pressure fluctuations in fluidized beds

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ghasemi, Fatemeh; Sahimi, Muhammad; Reza Rahimi Tabar, M; Peinke, Joachim

2012-01-01

Analysis of flow in fluidized beds, a common chemical reactor, is of much current interest due to its fundamental as well as industrial importance. Experimental data for the successive increments of the pressure fluctuations time series in a fluidized bed are analyzed by computing a multiscale probability density function (PDF) of the increments. The results demonstrate the evolution of the shape of the PDF from the short to long time scales. The deformation of the PDF across time scales may be modeled by the log-normal cascade model. The results are also in contrast to the previously proposed PDFs for the pressure fluctuations that include a Gaussian distribution and a PDF with a power-law tail. To understand better the properties of the pressure fluctuations, we also construct the shuffled and surrogate time series for the data and analyze them with the same method. It turns out that long-range correlations play an important role in the structure of the time series that represent the pressure fluctuation. (paper)

Combining scenarios in a calculation of the overall probability distribution of cumulative releases of radioactivity from the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant, southeastern New Mexico

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tierney, M.S.

1991-11-01

The Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP), in southeastern New Mexico, is a research and development facility to demonstrate safe disposal of defense-generated transuranic waste. The US Department of Energy will designate WIPP as a disposal facility if it meets the US Environmental Protection Agency's standard for disposal of such waste; the standard includes a requirement that estimates of cumulative releases of radioactivity to the accessible environment be incorporated in an overall probability distribution. The WIPP Project has chosen an approach to calculation of an overall probability distribution that employs the concept of scenarios for release and transport of radioactivity to the accessible environment. This report reviews the use of Monte Carlo methods in the calculation of an overall probability distribution and presents a logical and mathematical foundation for use of the scenario concept in such calculations. The report also draws preliminary conclusions regarding the shape of the probability distribution for the WIPP system; preliminary conclusions are based on the possible occurrence of three events and the presence of one feature: namely, the events ''attempted boreholes over rooms and drifts,'' ''mining alters ground-water regime,'' ''water-withdrawal wells provide alternate pathways,'' and the feature ''brine pocket below room or drift.'' Calculation of the WIPP systems's overall probability distributions for only five of sixteen possible scenario classes that can be obtained by combining the four postulated events or features

Nuclear data uncertainties: I, Basic concepts of probability

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Smith, D.L.

1988-12-01

Some basic concepts of probability theory are presented from a nuclear-data perspective, in order to provide a foundation for thorough understanding of the role of uncertainties in nuclear data research. Topics included in this report are: events, event spaces, calculus of events, randomness, random variables, random-variable distributions, intuitive and axiomatic probability, calculus of probability, conditional probability and independence, probability distributions, binomial and multinomial probability, Poisson and interval probability, normal probability, the relationships existing between these probability laws, and Bayes' theorem. This treatment emphasizes the practical application of basic mathematical concepts to nuclear data research, and it includes numerous simple examples. 34 refs.

Nuclear data uncertainties: I, Basic concepts of probability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Smith, D.L.

1988-12-01

Some basic concepts of probability theory are presented from a nuclear-data perspective, in order to provide a foundation for thorough understanding of the role of uncertainties in nuclear data research. Topics included in this report are: events, event spaces, calculus of events, randomness, random variables, random-variable distributions, intuitive and axiomatic probability, calculus of probability, conditional probability and independence, probability distributions, binomial and multinomial probability, Poisson and interval probability, normal probability, the relationships existing between these probability laws, and Bayes' theorem. This treatment emphasizes the practical application of basic mathematical concepts to nuclear data research, and it includes numerous simple examples. 34 refs

Choice Probability Generating Functions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Fosgerau, Mogens; McFadden, Daniel L; Bierlaire, Michel

This paper considers discrete choice, with choice probabilities coming from maximization of preferences from a random utility field perturbed by additive location shifters (ARUM). Any ARUM can be characterized by a choice-probability generating function (CPGF) whose gradient gives the choice...... probabilities, and every CPGF is consistent with an ARUM. We relate CPGF to multivariate extreme value distributions, and review and extend methods for constructing CPGF for applications....

MORSEC-SP, Step Function Angular Distribution for Cross-Sections Calculation by Program MORSE

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1980-01-01

1 - Description of problem or function: MORSEC-SP allows one to utilize a step distribution to describe the angular dependence of the multi- group function in the MORSEC cross section module of the MORSE Monte Carlo code. The step distribution is always non-negative and may be used in the random walk and for making point detector estimators. 2 - Method of solution: MORSEC-SP utilizes a table look up procedure to provide the probability of scattering when making point detector estimates for a given incident energy group and scattering angle. In the random walk, the step distributions are converted to cumulative distributions and an angle of scatter is selected from the cumulative distributions. Step distributions are obtained from calculation using the converted moments from the given Legendre coefficients of the scattering distributions. 3 - Restrictions on the complexity of the problem: Additional coding to the MORSEC module is variable dimensional and fully incorporated into blank common

The orientation distribution of tunneling-related quantities

Science.gov (United States)

Seif, W. M.; Refaie, A. I.; Botros, M. M.

2018-03-01

In the nuclear tunneling processes involving deformed nuclei, most of the tunneling-related quantities depend on the relative orientations of the participating nuclei. In the presence of different multipole deformations, we study the variation of a few relevant quantities for the α-decay and the sub-barrier fusion processes, in an orientation degree of freedom. The knocking frequency and the penetration probability are evaluated within the Wentzel-Kramers-Brillouin approximation. The interaction potential is calculated with Skyrme-type nucleon-nucleon interaction. We found that the width of the potential pocket, the Coulomb barrier radius, the penetration probability, the α-decay width, and the fusion cross-section follow consistently the orientation-angle variation of the radius of the deformed nucleus. The orientation distribution patterns of the pocket width, the barrier radius, the logarithms of the penetrability, the decay width, and the fusion cross-section are found to be highly analogous to pattern of the deformed-nucleus radius. The curve patterns of the orientation angle distributions of the internal pocket depth, the Coulomb barrier height and width, as well as the knocking frequency simulate inversely the variation of the deformed nucleus radius. The predicted orientation behaviors will be of a special interest in predicting the optimum orientations for the tunneling processes.

Hydrological model calibration for derived flood frequency analysis using stochastic rainfall and probability distributions of peak flows

Science.gov (United States)

Haberlandt, U.; Radtke, I.

2014-01-01

Derived flood frequency analysis allows the estimation of design floods with hydrological modeling for poorly observed basins considering change and taking into account flood protection measures. There are several possible choices regarding precipitation input, discharge output and consequently the calibration of the model. The objective of this study is to compare different calibration strategies for a hydrological model considering various types of rainfall input and runoff output data sets and to propose the most suitable approach. Event based and continuous, observed hourly rainfall data as well as disaggregated daily rainfall and stochastically generated hourly rainfall data are used as input for the model. As output, short hourly and longer daily continuous flow time series as well as probability distributions of annual maximum peak flow series are employed. The performance of the strategies is evaluated using the obtained different model parameter sets for continuous simulation of discharge in an independent validation period and by comparing the model derived flood frequency distributions with the observed one. The investigations are carried out for three mesoscale catchments in northern Germany with the hydrological model HEC-HMS (Hydrologic Engineering Center's Hydrologic Modeling System). The results show that (I) the same type of precipitation input data should be used for calibration and application of the hydrological model, (II) a model calibrated using a small sample of extreme values works quite well for the simulation of continuous time series with moderate length but not vice versa, and (III) the best performance with small uncertainty is obtained when stochastic precipitation data and the observed probability distribution of peak flows are used for model calibration. This outcome suggests to calibrate a hydrological model directly on probability distributions of observed peak flows using stochastic rainfall as input if its purpose is the

Probability distribution of wave packet delay time for strong overlapping of resonance levels

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lyuboshits, V.L.

1983-01-01

Time behaviour of nuclear reactions in the case of high level densities is investigated basing on the theory of overlapping resonances. In the framework of a model of n equivalent channels an analytical expression is obtained for the probability distribution function for wave packet delay time at the compound nucleus production. It is shown that at strong overlapping of the resonance levels the relative fluctuation of the delay time is small at the stage of compound nucleus production. A possible increase in the duration of nuclear reactions with the excitation energy rise is discussed

Probability distribution of machining center failures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jia Yazhou; Wang Molin; Jia Zhixin

1995-01-01

Through field tracing research for 24 Chinese cutter-changeable CNC machine tools (machining centers) over a period of one year, a database of operation and maintenance for machining centers was built, the failure data was fitted to the Weibull distribution and the exponential distribution, the effectiveness was tested, and the failure distribution pattern of machining centers was found. Finally, the reliability characterizations for machining centers are proposed

Choice probability generating functions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Fosgerau, Mogens; McFadden, Daniel; Bierlaire, Michel

2013-01-01

This paper considers discrete choice, with choice probabilities coming from maximization of preferences from a random utility field perturbed by additive location shifters (ARUM). Any ARUM can be characterized by a choice-probability generating function (CPGF) whose gradient gives the choice...... probabilities, and every CPGF is consistent with an ARUM. We relate CPGF to multivariate extreme value distributions, and review and extend methods for constructing CPGF for applications. The choice probabilities of any ARUM may be approximated by a cross-nested logit model. The results for ARUM are extended...

An innovative method for offshore wind farm site selection based on the interval number with probability distribution

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Yunna; Chen, Kaifeng; Xu, Hu; Xu, Chuanbo; Zhang, Haobo; Yang, Meng

2017-12-01

There is insufficient research relating to offshore wind farm site selection in China. The current methods for site selection have some defects. First, information loss is caused by two aspects: the implicit assumption that the probability distribution on the interval number is uniform; and ignoring the value of decision makers' (DMs') common opinion on the criteria information evaluation. Secondly, the difference in DMs' utility function has failed to receive attention. An innovative method is proposed in this article to solve these drawbacks. First, a new form of interval number and its weighted operator are proposed to reflect the uncertainty and reduce information loss. Secondly, a new stochastic dominance degree is proposed to quantify the interval number with a probability distribution. Thirdly, a two-stage method integrating the weighted operator with stochastic dominance degree is proposed to evaluate the alternatives. Finally, a case from China proves the effectiveness of this method.

Lateral displacement in small angle multiple scattering

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bichsel, H.; Hanson, K.M.; Schillaci, K.M. (Los Alamos National Lab., NM (USA))

1982-07-01

Values have been calculated for the average lateral displacement in small angle multiple scattering of protons with energies of several hundred MeV. The calculations incorporate the Moliere distribution which does not make the gaussian approximations of the distribution in projected angle and lateral deflections. Compared to other published data, such approximations can lead to errors in the lateral displacement of up to 10% in water.

The quantum probability calculus

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jauch, J.M.

1976-01-01

The Wigner anomaly (1932) for the joint distribution of noncompatible observables is an indication that the classical probability calculus is not applicable for quantum probabilities. It should, therefore, be replaced by another, more general calculus, which is specifically adapted to quantal systems. In this article this calculus is exhibited and its mathematical axioms and the definitions of the basic concepts such as probability field, random variable, and expectation values are given. (B.R.H)

Automatic method for estimation of in situ effective contact angle from X-ray micro tomography images of two-phase flow in porous media.

Science.gov (United States)

Scanziani, Alessio; Singh, Kamaljit; Blunt, Martin J; Guadagnini, Alberto

2017-06-15

Multiphase flow in porous media is strongly influenced by the wettability of the system, which affects the arrangement of the interfaces of different phases residing in the pores. We present a method for estimating the effective contact angle, which quantifies the wettability and controls the local capillary pressure within the complex pore space of natural rock samples, based on the physical constraint of constant curvature of the interface between two fluids. This algorithm is able to extract a large number of measurements from a single rock core, resulting in a characteristic distribution of effective in situ contact angle for the system, that is modelled as a truncated Gaussian probability density distribution. The method is first validated on synthetic images, where the exact angle is known analytically; then the results obtained from measurements within the pore space of rock samples imaged at a resolution of a few microns are compared to direct manual assessment. Finally the method is applied to X-ray micro computed tomography (micro-CT) scans of two Ketton cores after waterflooding, that display water-wet and mixed-wet behaviour. The resulting distribution of in situ contact angles is characterized in terms of a mixture of truncated Gaussian densities. Crown Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Winter precipitation particle size distribution measurement by Multi-Angle Snowflake Camera

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Gwo-Jong; Kleinkort, Cameron; Bringi, V. N.; Notaroš, Branislav M.

2017-12-01

From the radar meteorology viewpoint, the most important properties for quantitative precipitation estimation of winter events are 3D shape, size, and mass of precipitation particles, as well as the particle size distribution (PSD). In order to measure these properties precisely, optical instruments may be the best choice. The Multi-Angle Snowflake Camera (MASC) is a relatively new instrument equipped with three high-resolution cameras to capture the winter precipitation particle images from three non-parallel angles, in addition to measuring the particle fall speed using two pairs of infrared motion sensors. However, the results from the MASC so far are usually presented as monthly or seasonally, and particle sizes are given as histograms, no previous studies have used the MASC for a single storm study, and no researchers use MASC to measure the PSD. We propose the methodology for obtaining the winter precipitation PSD measured by the MASC, and present and discuss the development, implementation, and application of the new technique for PSD computation based on MASC images. Overall, this is the first study of the MASC-based PSD. We present PSD MASC experiments and results for segments of two snow events to demonstrate the performance of our PSD algorithm. The results show that the self-consistency of the MASC measured single-camera PSDs is good. To cross-validate PSD measurements, we compare MASC mean PSD (averaged over three cameras) with the collocated 2D Video Disdrometer, and observe good agreements of the two sets of results.

Joint probabilities and quantum cognition

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Acacio de Barros, J.

2012-01-01

In this paper we discuss the existence of joint probability distributions for quantumlike response computations in the brain. We do so by focusing on a contextual neural-oscillator model shown to reproduce the main features of behavioral stimulus-response theory. We then exhibit a simple example of contextual random variables not having a joint probability distribution, and describe how such variables can be obtained from neural oscillators, but not from a quantum observable algebra.

Joint probabilities and quantum cognition

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Acacio de Barros, J. [Liberal Studies, 1600 Holloway Ave., San Francisco State University, San Francisco, CA 94132 (United States)

2012-12-18

In this paper we discuss the existence of joint probability distributions for quantumlike response computations in the brain. We do so by focusing on a contextual neural-oscillator model shown to reproduce the main features of behavioral stimulus-response theory. We then exhibit a simple example of contextual random variables not having a joint probability distribution, and describe how such variables can be obtained from neural oscillators, but not from a quantum observable algebra.

Spatial distribution and occurrence probability of regional new particle formation events in eastern China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

X. Shen

2018-01-01

Full Text Available In this work, the spatial extent of new particle formation (NPF events and the relative probability of observing particles originating from different spatial origins around three rural sites in eastern China were investigated using the NanoMap method, using particle number size distribution (PNSD data and air mass back trajectories. The length of the datasets used were 7, 1.5, and 3 years at rural sites Shangdianzi (SDZ in the North China Plain (NCP, Mt. Tai (TS in central eastern China, and Lin'an (LAN in the Yangtze River Delta region in eastern China, respectively. Regional NPF events were observed to occur with the horizontal extent larger than 500 km at SDZ and TS, favoured by the fast transport of northwesterly air masses. At LAN, however, the spatial footprint of NPF events was mostly observed around the site within 100–200 km. Difference in the horizontal spatial distribution of new particle source areas at different sites was connected to typical meteorological conditions at the sites. Consecutive large-scale regional NPF events were observed at SDZ and TS simultaneously and were associated with a high surface pressure system dominating over this area. Simultaneous NPF events at SDZ and LAN were seldom observed. At SDZ the polluted air masses arriving over the NCP were associated with higher particle growth rate (GR and new particle formation rate (J than air masses from Inner Mongolia (IM. At TS the same phenomenon was observed for J, but GR was somewhat lower in air masses arriving over the NCP compared to those arriving from IM. The capability of NanoMap to capture the NPF occurrence probability depends on the length of the dataset of PNSD measurement but also on topography around the measurement site and typical air mass advection speed during NPF events. Thus the long-term measurements of PNSD in the planetary boundary layer are necessary in the further study of spatial extent and the probability of NPF events. The spatial

Probability elements of the mathematical theory

CERN Document Server

Heathcote, C R

2000-01-01

Designed for students studying mathematical statistics and probability after completing a course in calculus and real variables, this text deals with basic notions of probability spaces, random variables, distribution functions and generating functions, as well as joint distributions and the convergence properties of sequences of random variables. Includes worked examples and over 250 exercises with solutions.

Risk Probabilities

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rojas-Nandayapa, Leonardo

Tail probabilities of sums of heavy-tailed random variables are of a major importance in various branches of Applied Probability, such as Risk Theory, Queueing Theory, Financial Management, and are subject to intense research nowadays. To understand their relevance one just needs to think...... analytic expression for the distribution function of a sum of random variables. The presence of heavy-tailed random variables complicates the problem even more. The objective of this dissertation is to provide better approximations by means of sharp asymptotic expressions and Monte Carlo estimators...

A statistical model for deriving probability distributions of contamination for accidental releases

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

ApSimon, H.M.; Davison, A.C.

1986-01-01

Results generated from a detailed long-range transport model, MESOS, simulating dispersal of a large number of hypothetical releases of radionuclides in a variety of meteorological situations over Western Europe have been used to derive a simpler statistical model, MESOSTAT. This model may be used to generate probability distributions of different levels of contamination at a receptor point 100-1000 km or so from the source (for example, across a frontier in another country) without considering individual release and dispersal scenarios. The model is embodied in a series of equations involving parameters which are determined from such factors as distance between source and receptor, nuclide decay and deposition characteristics, release duration, and geostrophic windrose at the source. Suitable geostrophic windrose data have been derived for source locations covering Western Europe. Special attention has been paid to the relatively improbable extreme values of contamination at the top end of the distribution. The MESOSTAT model and its development are described, with illustrations of its use and comparison with the original more detailed modelling techniques. (author)

Probability distributions of placental morphological measurements and origins of variability of placental shapes.

Science.gov (United States)

Yampolsky, M; Salafia, C M; Shlakhter, O

2013-06-01

While the mean shape of human placenta is round with centrally inserted umbilical cord, significant deviations from this ideal are fairly common, and may be clinically meaningful. Traditionally, they are explained by trophotropism. We have proposed a hypothesis explaining typical variations in placental shape by randomly determined fluctuations in the growth process of the vascular tree. It has been recently reported that umbilical cord displacement in a birth cohort has a log-normal probability distribution, which indicates that the displacement between an initial point of origin and the centroid of the mature shape is a result of accumulation of random fluctuations of the dynamic growth of the placenta. To confirm this, we investigate statistical distributions of other features of placental morphology. In a cohort of 1023 births at term digital photographs of placentas were recorded at delivery. Excluding cases with velamentous cord insertion, or missing clinical data left 1001 (97.8%) for which placental surface morphology features were measured. Best-fit statistical distributions for them were obtained using EasyFit. The best-fit distributions of umbilical cord displacement, placental disk diameter, area, perimeter, and maximal radius calculated from the cord insertion point are of heavy-tailed type, similar in shape to log-normal distributions. This is consistent with a stochastic origin of deviations of placental shape from normal. Deviations of placental shape descriptors from average have heavy-tailed distributions similar in shape to log-normal. This evidence points away from trophotropism, and towards a spontaneous stochastic evolution of the variants of placental surface shape features. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Site-to-Source Finite Fault Distance Probability Distribution in Probabilistic Seismic Hazard and the Relationship Between Minimum Distances

Science.gov (United States)

Ortega, R.; Gutierrez, E.; Carciumaru, D. D.; Huesca-Perez, E.

2017-12-01

We present a method to compute the conditional and no-conditional probability density function (PDF) of the finite fault distance distribution (FFDD). Two cases are described: lines and areas. The case of lines has a simple analytical solution while, in the case of areas, the geometrical probability of a fault based on the strike, dip, and fault segment vertices is obtained using the projection of spheres in a piecewise rectangular surface. The cumulative distribution is computed by measuring the projection of a sphere of radius r in an effective area using an algorithm that estimates the area of a circle within a rectangle. In addition, we introduce the finite fault distance metrics. This distance is the distance where the maximum stress release occurs within the fault plane and generates a peak ground motion. Later, we can apply the appropriate ground motion prediction equations (GMPE) for PSHA. The conditional probability of distance given magnitude is also presented using different scaling laws. A simple model of constant distribution of the centroid at the geometrical mean is discussed, in this model hazard is reduced at the edges because the effective size is reduced. Nowadays there is a trend of using extended source distances in PSHA, however it is not possible to separate the fault geometry from the GMPE. With this new approach, it is possible to add fault rupture models separating geometrical and propagation effects.

Angle resolved photoelectron distribution of the 1{pi} resonance of CO/Pt(111)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Haarlammert, Thorben; Wegner, Sebastian; Tsilimis, Grigorius; Zacharias, Helmut [Physikalisches Institut, Westfaelische Wilhelms Universitaet, Muenster (Germany); Golovin, Alexander [Institute of Physics, St. Petersburg State University (Russian Federation)

2009-07-01

The CO 1{pi} level of a c(4 x 2)-2CO/Pt(111) reconstruction shows a significant resonance when varying the photon energy between h{nu}=23 eV and h{nu}=48 e V. This resonance has not been observed in gas phase measurements or on the Pt(1 10) surface. To investigate the photoelectron distribution of the 1{pi} level high harmonic radiaton has been used. By conversion in rare gases like argon, neon, or helium photon energies of up to 100 eV have been generated at repetition r ates of up to 10 kHz. The single harmonics have been separated and focused by a toroidal grating and directed to the sample surface. A time-of-flight detector with multiple anodes registers the kinetic energies of the emitted photoelectrons and enables the simultaneous detection of multiple emission angles. The angular distributions of photoelectrons emitted from the CO 1{pi} level have been measured for a variety of initial photon energies. Further the angular distributions of the CO 1{pi} level photoelectrons emitted from a CO-Pt{sub 7} cluster have been calculated using the MSX{alpha}-Method which shows good agreement with the ex perimental data.

Introduction to probability with R

CERN Document Server

Baclawski, Kenneth

2008-01-01

FOREWORD PREFACE Sets, Events, and Probability The Algebra of Sets The Bernoulli Sample Space The Algebra of Multisets The Concept of Probability Properties of Probability Measures Independent Events The Bernoulli Process The R Language Finite Processes The Basic Models Counting Rules Computing Factorials The Second Rule of Counting Computing Probabilities Discrete Random Variables The Bernoulli Process: Tossing a Coin The Bernoulli Process: Random Walk Independence and Joint Distributions Expectations The Inclusion-Exclusion Principle General Random Variable

In favor of general probability distributions: lateral prefrontal and insular cortices respond to stimulus inherent, but irrelevant differences.

Science.gov (United States)

Mestres-Missé, Anna; Trampel, Robert; Turner, Robert; Kotz, Sonja A

2016-04-01

A key aspect of optimal behavior is the ability to predict what will come next. To achieve this, we must have a fairly good idea of the probability of occurrence of possible outcomes. This is based both on prior knowledge about a particular or similar situation and on immediately relevant new information. One question that arises is: when considering converging prior probability and external evidence, is the most probable outcome selected or does the brain represent degrees of uncertainty, even highly improbable ones? Using functional magnetic resonance imaging, the current study explored these possibilities by contrasting words that differ in their probability of occurrence, namely, unbalanced ambiguous words and unambiguous words. Unbalanced ambiguous words have a strong frequency-based bias towards one meaning, while unambiguous words have only one meaning. The current results reveal larger activation in lateral prefrontal and insular cortices in response to dominant ambiguous compared to unambiguous words even when prior and contextual information biases one interpretation only. These results suggest a probability distribution, whereby all outcomes and their associated probabilities of occurrence--even if very low--are represented and maintained.

Estimating species occurrence, abundance, and detection probability using zero-inflated distributions.

Science.gov (United States)

Wenger, Seth J; Freeman, Mary C

2008-10-01

Researchers have developed methods to account for imperfect detection of species with either occupancy (presence absence) or count data using replicated sampling. We show how these approaches can be combined to simultaneously estimate occurrence, abundance, and detection probability by specifying a zero-inflated distribution for abundance. This approach may be particularly appropriate when patterns of occurrence and abundance arise from distinct processes operating at differing spatial or temporal scales. We apply the model to two data sets: (1) previously published data for a species of duck, Anas platyrhynchos, and (2) data for a stream fish species, Etheostoma scotti. We show that in these cases, an incomplete-detection zero-inflated modeling approach yields a superior fit to the data than other models. We propose that zero-inflated abundance models accounting for incomplete detection be considered when replicate count data are available.

Classification of resistance to passive motion using minimum probability of error criterion.

Science.gov (United States)

Chan, H C; Manry, M T; Kondraske, G V

1987-01-01

Neurologists diagnose many muscular and nerve disorders by classifying the resistance to passive motion of patients' limbs. Over the past several years, a computer-based instrument has been developed for automated measurement and parameterization of this resistance. In the device, a voluntarily relaxed lower extremity is moved at constant velocity by a motorized driver. The torque exerted on the extremity by the machine is sampled, along with the angle of the extremity. In this paper a computerized technique is described for classifying a patient's condition as 'Normal' or 'Parkinson disease' (rigidity), from the torque versus angle curve for the knee joint. A Legendre polynomial, fit to the curve, is used to calculate a set of eight normally distributed features of the curve. The minimum probability of error approach is used to classify the curve as being from a normal or Parkinson disease patient. Data collected from 44 different subjects was processes and the results were compared with an independent physician's subjective assessment of rigidity. There is agreement in better than 95% of the cases, when all of the features are used.

Probability distribution of distance in a uniform ellipsoid: Theory and applications to physics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Parry, Michelle; Fischbach, Ephraim

2000-01-01

A number of authors have previously found the probability P n (r) that two points uniformly distributed in an n-dimensional sphere are separated by a distance r. This result greatly facilitates the calculation of self-energies of spherically symmetric matter distributions interacting by means of an arbitrary radially symmetric two-body potential. We present here the analogous results for P 2 (r;ε) and P 3 (r;ε) which respectively describe an ellipse and an ellipsoid whose major and minor axes are 2a and 2b. It is shown that for ε=(1-b 2 /a 2 ) 1/2 ≤1, P 2 (r;ε) and P 3 (r;ε) can be obtained as an expansion in powers of ε, and our results are valid through order ε 4 . As an application of these results we calculate the Coulomb energy of an ellipsoidal nucleus, and compare our result to an earlier result quoted in the literature. (c) 2000 American Institute of Physics

On probability-possibility transformations

Science.gov (United States)

Klir, George J.; Parviz, Behzad

1992-01-01

Several probability-possibility transformations are compared in terms of the closeness of preserving second-order properties. The comparison is based on experimental results obtained by computer simulation. Two second-order properties are involved in this study: noninteraction of two distributions and projections of a joint distribution.

Modeling the probability distribution of positional errors incurred by residential address geocoding

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mazumdar Soumya

2007-01-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The assignment of a point-level geocode to subjects' residences is an important data assimilation component of many geographic public health studies. Often, these assignments are made by a method known as automated geocoding, which attempts to match each subject's address to an address-ranged street segment georeferenced within a streetline database and then interpolate the position of the address along that segment. Unfortunately, this process results in positional errors. Our study sought to model the probability distribution of positional errors associated with automated geocoding and E911 geocoding. Results Positional errors were determined for 1423 rural addresses in Carroll County, Iowa as the vector difference between each 100%-matched automated geocode and its true location as determined by orthophoto and parcel information. Errors were also determined for 1449 60%-matched geocodes and 2354 E911 geocodes. Huge (> 15 km outliers occurred among the 60%-matched geocoding errors; outliers occurred for the other two types of geocoding errors also but were much smaller. E911 geocoding was more accurate (median error length = 44 m than 100%-matched automated geocoding (median error length = 168 m. The empirical distributions of positional errors associated with 100%-matched automated geocoding and E911 geocoding exhibited a distinctive Greek-cross shape and had many other interesting features that were not capable of being fitted adequately by a single bivariate normal or t distribution. However, mixtures of t distributions with two or three components fit the errors very well. Conclusion Mixtures of bivariate t distributions with few components appear to be flexible enough to fit many positional error datasets associated with geocoding, yet parsimonious enough to be feasible for nascent applications of measurement-error methodology to spatial epidemiology.

CAN'T MISS--conquer any number task by making important statistics simple. Part 2. Probability, populations, samples, and normal distributions.

Science.gov (United States)

Hansen, John P

2003-01-01

Healthcare quality improvement professionals need to understand and use inferential statistics to interpret sample data from their organizations. In quality improvement and healthcare research studies all the data from a population often are not available, so investigators take samples and make inferences about the population by using inferential statistics. This three-part series will give readers an understanding of the concepts of inferential statistics as well as the specific tools for calculating confidence intervals for samples of data. This article, Part 2, describes probability, populations, and samples. The uses of descriptive and inferential statistics are outlined. The article also discusses the properties and probability of normal distributions, including the standard normal distribution.

Classical probability model for Bell inequality

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Khrennikov, Andrei

2014-01-01

We show that by taking into account randomness of realization of experimental contexts it is possible to construct common Kolmogorov space for data collected for these contexts, although they can be incompatible. We call such a construction 'Kolmogorovization' of contextuality. This construction of common probability space is applied to Bell's inequality. It is well known that its violation is a consequence of collecting statistical data in a few incompatible experiments. In experiments performed in quantum optics contexts are determined by selections of pairs of angles (θ i ,θ ' j ) fixing orientations of polarization beam splitters. Opposite to the common opinion, we show that statistical data corresponding to measurements of polarizations of photons in the singlet state, e.g., in the form of correlations, can be described in the classical probabilistic framework. The crucial point is that in constructing the common probability space one has to take into account not only randomness of the source (as Bell did), but also randomness of context-realizations (in particular, realizations of pairs of angles (θ i , θ ' j )). One may (but need not) say that randomness of 'free will' has to be accounted for.

Tools for Bramwell-Holdsworth-Pinton Probability Distribution

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mirela Danubianu

2009-01-01

Full Text Available This paper is a synthesis of a range of papers presentedat various conferences related to distribution Bramwell-Holdsworth-Pinton. S. T. Bramwell, P. C. W. Holdsworth, J. F.Pinton introduced a new non-parametric distribution (calledBHP after studying some magnetization problems in 2D. Probabilitydensity function of distribution can be aproximated as amodified GFT (Gumbel-Fisher-Tippitt distribution.

Constituent quarks as clusters in quark-gluon-parton model. [Total cross sections, probability distributions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kanki, T [Osaka Univ., Toyonaka (Japan). Coll. of General Education

1976-12-01

We present a quark-gluon-parton model in which quark-partons and gluons make clusters corresponding to two or three constituent quarks (or anti-quarks) in the meson or in the baryon, respectively. We explicitly construct the constituent quark state (cluster), by employing the Kuti-Weisskopf theory and by requiring the scaling. The quark additivity of the hadronic total cross sections and the quark counting rules on the threshold powers of various distributions are satisfied. For small x (Feynman fraction), it is shown that the constituent quarks and quark-partons have quite different probability distributions. We apply our model to hadron-hadron inclusive reactions, and clarify that the fragmentation and the diffractive processes relate to the constituent quark distributions, while the processes in or near the central region are controlled by the quark-partons. Our model gives the reasonable interpretation for the experimental data and much improves the usual ''constituent interchange model'' result near and in the central region (x asymptotically equals x sub(T) asymptotically equals 0).

The distribution of lumbar intervertebral angles in upright standing and extension is related to low back pain developed during standing.

Science.gov (United States)

Viggiani, Daniel; Gallagher, Kaitlin M; Sehl, Michael; Callaghan, Jack P

2017-11-01

Lumbar lordosis measures are poorly related to clinical low back pain, however using a controlled exposure such as prolonged standing to identify pain groups may clarify this relationship. The purpose of this study was to determine the distribution of lumbar intervertebral angles in asymptomatic persons who do (pain developers) and do not (non-pain developers) develop low back pain during standing. Sagittal plane lumbar spine radiographs of eight pain developers and eight non-pain developers were taken in three poses: upright standing, full extension and full flexion. Measures of vertebral end plate orientations from L1 to S1 were taken in each pose to compute: intervertebral angles, contribution of each level to the total curve, total lordosis, ranges of motion, relative pose positioning within the range of motion, vertebral shape, and lumbar spine recurve. Measures were compared between pain groups and lumbar levels. Pain group differences in intervertebral angles and level contributions were greatest in the full extension pose, with pain developers having greater contributions from higher lumbar levels and fewer contributions from lower levels than non-pain developers. Pain group differences in intervertebral angle distributions were less pronounced in upright standing and non-existent in full flexion. No other measures differentiated pain groups. Although participants had similar gross-lumbar spine curvature characteristics, non-pain developers have more curvature at lower levels in upright standing and full extension. These differences in regional vertebral kinematics may partially be responsible for standing-induced low back pain. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Concise method for evaluating the probability distribution of the marginal cost of power generation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang, S.H.; Li, Y.Z.

2000-01-01

In the developing electricity market, many questions on electricity pricing and the risk modelling of forward contracts require the evaluation of the expected value and probability distribution of the short-run marginal cost of power generation at any given time. A concise forecasting method is provided, which is consistent with the definitions of marginal costs and the techniques of probabilistic production costing. The method embodies clear physical concepts, so that it can be easily understood theoretically and computationally realised. A numerical example has been used to test the proposed method. (author)

Probability distribution and statistical properties of spherically compensated cosmic regions in ΛCDM cosmology

Science.gov (United States)

Alimi, Jean-Michel; de Fromont, Paul

2018-04-01

The statistical properties of cosmic structures are well known to be strong probes for cosmology. In particular, several studies tried to use the cosmic void counting number to obtain tight constrains on dark energy. In this paper, we model the statistical properties of these regions using the CoSphere formalism (de Fromont & Alimi) in both primordial and non-linearly evolved Universe in the standard Λ cold dark matter model. This formalism applies similarly for minima (voids) and maxima (such as DM haloes), which are here considered symmetrically. We first derive the full joint Gaussian distribution of CoSphere's parameters in the Gaussian random field. We recover the results of Bardeen et al. only in the limit where the compensation radius becomes very large, i.e. when the central extremum decouples from its cosmic environment. We compute the probability distribution of the compensation size in this primordial field. We show that this distribution is redshift independent and can be used to model cosmic voids size distribution. We also derive the statistical distribution of the peak parameters introduced by Bardeen et al. and discuss their correlation with the cosmic environment. We show that small central extrema with low density are associated with narrow compensation regions with deep compensation density, while higher central extrema are preferentially located in larger but smoother over/under massive regions.

Interpretation and Utility of the Moments of Small-Angle X-Ray Scattering Distributions.

Science.gov (United States)

Modregger, Peter; Kagias, Matias; Irvine, Sarah C; Brönnimann, Rolf; Jefimovs, Konstantins; Endrizzi, Marco; Olivo, Alessandro

2017-06-30

Small angle x-ray scattering has been proven to be a valuable method for accessing structural information below the spatial resolution limit implied by direct imaging. Here, we theoretically derive the relation that links the subpixel differential phase signal provided by the sample to the moments of scattering distributions accessible by refraction sensitive x-ray imaging techniques. As an important special case we explain the scatter or dark-field contrast in terms of the sample's phase signal. Further, we establish that, for binary phase objects, the nth moment scales with the difference of the refractive index decrement to the power of n. Finally, we experimentally demonstrate the utility of the moments by quantitatively determining the particle sizes of a range of powders with a laboratory-based setup.

An experimental study of the surface elevation probability distribution and statistics of wind-generated waves

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, N. E.; Long, S. R.

1980-01-01

Laboratory experiments were performed to measure the surface elevation probability density function and associated statistical properties for a wind-generated wave field. The laboratory data along with some limited field data were compared. The statistical properties of the surface elevation were processed for comparison with the results derived from the Longuet-Higgins (1963) theory. It is found that, even for the highly non-Gaussian cases, the distribution function proposed by Longuet-Higgins still gives good approximations.

The correlation of defect distribution in collisional phase with measured cascade collapse probability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Morishita, K.; Ishino, S.; Sekimura, N.

1995-01-01

The spatial distributions of atomic displacement at the end of the collisional phase of cascade damage processes were calculated using the computer simulation code MARLOWE, which is based on the binary collision approximation (BCA). The densities of the atomic displacement were evaluated in high dense regions (HDRs) of cascades in several pure metals (Fe, Ni, Cu, Ag, Au, Mo and W). They were compared with the measured cascade collapse probabilities reported in the literature where TEM observations were carried out using thin metal foils irradiated by low-dose ions at room temperature. We found that there exists the minimum or ''critical'' values of the atomic displacement densities for the HDR to collapse into TEM-visible vacancy clusters. The critical densities are generally independent of the cascade energy in the same metal. Furthermore, the material dependence of the critical densities can be explained by the difference in the vacancy mobility at the melting temperature of target materials. This critical density calibration, which is extracted from the ion-irradiation experiments and the BCA simulations, is applied to estimation of cascade collapse probabilities in the metals irradiated by fusion neutrons. (orig.)

Inclusive measurements of the break-up of 156 MeV 6Li-ions at extreme forward angles and the quasi free break-up model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jellito, H.; Buschmann, J.; Gils, H.J.; Heide, N.; Kiener, J.; Rebel, H.; Zagromski, S.; Samanta, C.

1988-11-01

Inclusive alpha particle and deuteron spectra from collisions of 156 MeV 6 Li-ions with 12 C and 208 Pb were measured at extreme forward emission angles including zero degree. The measurements were performed with the Karlsruhe magnetic spectrograph 'Little John' and required an efficient reduction of the background from small-angle scattering. The observed double differential cross sections and angular distributions have been analysed on the basis of Serber's spectator break-up model. When going to angles smaller than grazing, where Coulomb effects are expected to the dominating, transitional features may appear. Corresponding effects probably associated with Coulomb break-up are observed with the 208 Pb-target and require a slight extension of the Serber approach. In the case of the 12 C-target the break-up cross sections in forward direction seem to reflect the shape of the internal momentum distribution of the alpha particle and deuteron cluster in the 6 Li-projectile and are in agreement with a 2S-type wave function. However, at larger angles the shape appears to be distorted, possibly by final state interactions. (orig.) [de

Introduction to probability with statistical applications

CERN Document Server

Schay, Géza

2016-01-01

Now in its second edition, this textbook serves as an introduction to probability and statistics for non-mathematics majors who do not need the exhaustive detail and mathematical depth provided in more comprehensive treatments of the subject. The presentation covers the mathematical laws of random phenomena, including discrete and continuous random variables, expectation and variance, and common probability distributions such as the binomial, Poisson, and normal distributions. More classical examples such as Montmort's problem, the ballot problem, and Bertrand’s paradox are now included, along with applications such as the Maxwell-Boltzmann and Bose-Einstein distributions in physics. Key features in new edition: * 35 new exercises * Expanded section on the algebra of sets * Expanded chapters on probabilities to include more classical examples * New section on regression * Online instructors' manual containing solutions to all exercises

Eruption probabilities for the Lassen Volcanic Center and regional volcanism, northern California, and probabilities for large explosive eruptions in the Cascade Range

Science.gov (United States)

Nathenson, Manuel; Clynne, Michael A.; Muffler, L.J. Patrick

2012-01-01

Chronologies for eruptive activity of the Lassen Volcanic Center and for eruptions from the regional mafic vents in the surrounding area of the Lassen segment of the Cascade Range are here used to estimate probabilities of future eruptions. For the regional mafic volcanism, the ages of many vents are known only within broad ranges, and two models are developed that should bracket the actual eruptive ages. These chronologies are used with exponential, Weibull, and mixed-exponential probability distributions to match the data for time intervals between eruptions. For the Lassen Volcanic Center, the probability of an eruption in the next year is 1.4x10-4 for the exponential distribution and 2.3x10-4 for the mixed exponential distribution. For the regional mafic vents, the exponential distribution gives a probability of an eruption in the next year of 6.5x10-4, but the mixed exponential distribution indicates that the current probability, 12,000 years after the last event, could be significantly lower. For the exponential distribution, the highest probability is for an eruption from a regional mafic vent. Data on areas and volumes of lava flows and domes of the Lassen Volcanic Center and of eruptions from the regional mafic vents provide constraints on the probable sizes of future eruptions. Probabilities of lava-flow coverage are similar for the Lassen Volcanic Center and for regional mafic vents, whereas the probable eruptive volumes for the mafic vents are generally smaller. Data have been compiled for large explosive eruptions (>≈ 5 km3 in deposit volume) in the Cascade Range during the past 1.2 m.y. in order to estimate probabilities of eruption. For erupted volumes >≈5 km3, the rate of occurrence since 13.6 ka is much higher than for the entire period, and we use these data to calculate the annual probability of a large eruption at 4.6x10-4. For erupted volumes ≥10 km3, the rate of occurrence has been reasonably constant from 630 ka to the present, giving

Characteristics of pitch angle distributions of relativistic electrons under the interaction with Pc5 waves in the inner magnetosphere

Science.gov (United States)

Kamiya, K.; Seki, K.; Saito, S.; Amano, T.; Yoshizumi, M.

2017-12-01

Radial transport of relativistic electrons in the inner magnetosphere has been considered as one of acceleration mechanisms of the outer radiation belt electrons and can be driven by the drift resonance with ULF waves in the Pc5 frequency range. The maximum changes of the electron in the radial distance (L) due to the drift resonance depend on the electron energy, pitch angle, and Pc5 wave structure. Those dependences are expected to form the characteristic pitch angle distributions (PADs) as a function of L and electron energy. In this study, we investigate PADs of relativistic electrons due to the drift resonance with a monochromatic Pc5 wave by using two simulation models of the inner magnetosphere: GEMSIS-Ring Current (RC) and GEMSIS-Radiation Belt (RB) models. The GEMSIS-RB simulations calculate guiding center trajectories of relativistic electrons in electric and magnetic fields obtained from the GEMSIS-RC model, which simulates a monochromatic Pc5 wave propagation in the inner magnetosphere. The results show the characteristic PADs depending on the energy and L, which is explicable with the pitch angle dependence of resonance conditions. At a fixed location, those PADs can change from pancake (90°peaked) to butterfly (two peaks in oblique PAs) distributions as the transport by the monochromatic Pc5 wave progresses. These butterfly distributions are seen in the L range where electrons with lower PAs satisfy the resonance condition. It is also found that the lower PA electron with a fixed magnetic moment can be transported deeper inside because of the PA changes to larger values through the adiabatic transport, which enables them to satisfy the efficient resonance condition in wider L range compared to the 90 degrees PA electrons.

Main factors for fatigue failure probability of pipes subjected to fluid thermal fluctuation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Machida, Hideo; Suzuki, Masaaki; Kasahara, Naoto

2015-01-01

It is very important to grasp failure probability and failure mode appropriately to carry out risk reduction measures of nuclear power plants. To clarify the important factors for failure probability and failure mode of pipes subjected to fluid thermal fluctuation, failure probability analyses were performed by changing the values of a stress range, stress ratio, stress components and threshold of stress intensity factor range. The important factors for the failure probability are range, stress ratio (mean stress condition) and threshold of stress intensity factor range. The important factor for the failure mode is a circumferential angle range of fluid thermal fluctuation. When a large fluid thermal fluctuation acts on the entire circumferential surface of the pipe, the probability of pipe breakage increases, calling for measures to prevent such a failure and reduce the risk to the plant. When the circumferential angle subjected to fluid thermal fluctuation is small, the failure mode of piping is leakage and the corrective maintenance might be applicable from the viewpoint of risk to the plant. (author)

Poisson Processes in Free Probability

OpenAIRE

An, Guimei; Gao, Mingchu

2015-01-01

We prove a multidimensional Poisson limit theorem in free probability, and define joint free Poisson distributions in a non-commutative probability space. We define (compound) free Poisson process explicitly, similar to the definitions of (compound) Poisson processes in classical probability. We proved that the sum of finitely many freely independent compound free Poisson processes is a compound free Poisson processes. We give a step by step procedure for constructing a (compound) free Poisso...

Details of 1π sr wide acceptance angle electrostatic lens for electron energy and two-dimensional angular distribution analysis combined with real space imaging

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tóth, László; Matsuda, Hiroyuki; Matsui, Fumihiko; Goto, Kentaro; Daimon, Hiroshi

2012-01-01

We propose a new 1π sr Wide Acceptance Angle Electrostatic Lens (WAAEL), which works as a photoemission electron microscope (PEEM), a highly sensitive display-type electron energy and two-dimensional angular distribution analyzer. It can display two-dimensional angular distributions of charged particles within the acceptance angle of ±60° that is much larger than the largest acceptance angle range so far and comparable to the display-type spherical mirror analyzer developed by Daimon et al. . It has good focusing capabilities with 5-times magnification and 27(4) μm lateral-resolution. The relative energy resolution is typically from 2 to 5×10 -3 depending on the diameter of energy aperture and the emission area on the sample. Although, the lateral resolution of the presented lens is far from those are available nowadays, but this is the first working model that can form images using charged particles collected from 1π sr wide acceptance angle. The realization of such lens system is one of the first possible steps towards reaching the field of imaging type atomic resolution electron microscopy Feynman et al. Here some preliminary results are shown.

The impact of inlet angle and outlet angle of guide vane on pump in reversal based hydraulic turbine performance

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shi, F X; Yang, J H; Wang, X H; Zhang, R H; Li, C E

2012-01-01

In this paper, in order to research the impact of inlet angle and outlet angle of guide vane on hydraulic turbine performance, a centrifugal pump in reversal is adopted as turbine. A numerical simulation method is adopted for researching outer performance and flow field of turbine. The results show: inlet angle has a crucial role to turbine, to the same flow, there is a noticeable decline for the efficiency and head of turbine with the inlet angle increases. At the best efficiency point(EFP),to a same inlet angle, when the inlet angle greater than inlet angle, velocity circulation in guide vane outlet decreases, which lead the efficiency of turbine to reduce, Contrarily, the efficiency rises. With the increase of inlet angle and outlet angle, the EFP moves to the big flow area and the uniformity of pressure distribution becomes worse. The paper indicates that the inlet angle and outlet angle have great impact on the turbine performance, and the best combination exists for the inlet angle and outlet angle of the guide vane.

Bayesian Probability Theory

Science.gov (United States)

von der Linden, Wolfgang; Dose, Volker; von Toussaint, Udo

2014-06-01

Preface; Part I. Introduction: 1. The meaning of probability; 2. Basic definitions; 3. Bayesian inference; 4. Combinatrics; 5. Random walks; 6. Limit theorems; 7. Continuous distributions; 8. The central limit theorem; 9. Poisson processes and waiting times; Part II. Assigning Probabilities: 10. Transformation invariance; 11. Maximum entropy; 12. Qualified maximum entropy; 13. Global smoothness; Part III. Parameter Estimation: 14. Bayesian parameter estimation; 15. Frequentist parameter estimation; 16. The Cramer-Rao inequality; Part IV. Testing Hypotheses: 17. The Bayesian way; 18. The frequentist way; 19. Sampling distributions; 20. Bayesian vs frequentist hypothesis tests; Part V. Real World Applications: 21. Regression; 22. Inconsistent data; 23. Unrecognized signal contributions; 24. Change point problems; 25. Function estimation; 26. Integral equations; 27. Model selection; 28. Bayesian experimental design; Part VI. Probabilistic Numerical Techniques: 29. Numerical integration; 30. Monte Carlo methods; 31. Nested sampling; Appendixes; References; Index.

Normal probability plots with confidence.

Science.gov (United States)

Chantarangsi, Wanpen; Liu, Wei; Bretz, Frank; Kiatsupaibul, Seksan; Hayter, Anthony J; Wan, Fang

2015-01-01

Normal probability plots are widely used as a statistical tool for assessing whether an observed simple random sample is drawn from a normally distributed population. The users, however, have to judge subjectively, if no objective rule is provided, whether the plotted points fall close to a straight line. In this paper, we focus on how a normal probability plot can be augmented by intervals for all the points so that, if the population distribution is normal, then all the points should fall into the corresponding intervals simultaneously with probability 1-α. These simultaneous 1-α probability intervals provide therefore an objective mean to judge whether the plotted points fall close to the straight line: the plotted points fall close to the straight line if and only if all the points fall into the corresponding intervals. The powers of several normal probability plot based (graphical) tests and the most popular nongraphical Anderson-Darling and Shapiro-Wilk tests are compared by simulation. Based on this comparison, recommendations are given in Section 3 on which graphical tests should be used in what circumstances. An example is provided to illustrate the methods. © 2014 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

A full-angle Monte-Carlo scattering technique including cumulative and single-event Rutherford scattering in plasmas

Science.gov (United States)

Higginson, Drew P.

2017-11-01

We describe and justify a full-angle scattering (FAS) method to faithfully reproduce the accumulated differential angular Rutherford scattering probability distribution function (pdf) of particles in a plasma. The FAS method splits the scattering events into two regions. At small angles it is described by cumulative scattering events resulting, via the central limit theorem, in a Gaussian-like pdf; at larger angles it is described by single-event scatters and retains a pdf that follows the form of the Rutherford differential cross-section. The FAS method is verified using discrete Monte-Carlo scattering simulations run at small timesteps to include each individual scattering event. We identify the FAS regime of interest as where the ratio of temporal/spatial scale-of-interest to slowing-down time/length is from 10-3 to 0.3-0.7; the upper limit corresponds to Coulomb logarithm of 20-2, respectively. Two test problems, high-velocity interpenetrating plasma flows and keV-temperature ion equilibration, are used to highlight systems where including FAS is important to capture relevant physics.

The Multivariate Gaussian Probability Distribution

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ahrendt, Peter

2005-01-01

This technical report intends to gather information about the multivariate gaussian distribution, that was previously not (at least to my knowledge) to be found in one place and written as a reference manual. Additionally, some useful tips and tricks are collected that may be useful in practical ...

Probability distribution function values in mobile phones;Valores de funciones de distribución de probabilidad en el teléfono móvil

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Luis Vicente Chamorro Marcillllo

2013-06-01

Full Text Available Engineering, within its academic and application forms, as well as any formal research work requires the use of statistics and every inferential statistical analysis requires the use of values of probability distribution functions that are generally available in tables. Generally, management of those tables have physical problems (wasteful transport and wasteful consultation and operational (incomplete lists and limited accuracy. The study, “Probability distribution function values in mobile phones”, permitted determining – through a needs survey applied to students involved in statistics studies at Universidad de Nariño – that the best known and most used values correspond to Chi-Square, Binomial, Student’s t, and Standard Normal distributions. Similarly, it showed user’s interest in having the values in question within an alternative means to correct, at least in part, the problems presented by “the famous tables”. To try to contribute to the solution, we built software that allows immediately and dynamically obtaining the values of the probability distribution functions most commonly used by mobile phones.

Intracranial cerebrospinal fluid spaces imaging using a pulse-triggered three-dimensional turbo spin echo MR sequence with variable flip-angle distribution

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hodel, Jerome; Silvera, Jonathan; Bekaert, Olivier; Decq, Philippe; Rahmouni, Alain; Bastuji-Garin, Sylvie; Vignaud, Alexandre; Petit, Eric; Durning, Bruno

2011-01-01

To assess the three-dimensional turbo spin echo with variable flip-angle distribution magnetic resonance sequence (SPACE: Sampling Perfection with Application optimised Contrast using different flip-angle Evolution) for the imaging of intracranial cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) spaces. We prospectively investigated 18 healthy volunteers and 25 patients, 20 with communicating hydrocephalus (CH), five with non-communicating hydrocephalus (NCH), using the SPACE sequence at 1.5T. Volume rendering views of both intracranial and ventricular CSF were obtained for all patients and volunteers. The subarachnoid CSF distribution was qualitatively evaluated on volume rendering views using a four-point scale. The CSF volumes within total, ventricular and subarachnoid spaces were calculated as well as the ratio between ventricular and subarachnoid CSF volumes. Three different patterns of subarachnoid CSF distribution were observed. In healthy volunteers we found narrowed CSF spaces within the occipital aera. A diffuse narrowing of the subarachnoid CSF spaces was observed in patients with NCH whereas patients with CH exhibited narrowed CSF spaces within the high midline convexity. The ratios between ventricular and subarachnoid CSF volumes were significantly different among the volunteers, patients with CH and patients with NCH. The assessment of CSF spaces volume and distribution may help to characterise hydrocephalus. (orig.)

Intracranial cerebrospinal fluid spaces imaging using a pulse-triggered three-dimensional turbo spin echo MR sequence with variable flip-angle distribution

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hodel, Jerome [Unite Analyse et Restauration du Mouvement, UMR-CNRS, 8005 LBM ParisTech Ensam, Paris (France); University Paris Est Creteil (UPEC), Creteil (France); Assistance Publique-Hopitaux de Paris, Paris (France); Hopital Henri Mondor, Department of Neuroradiology, Creteil (France); Hopital Henri Mondor, Creteil (France); Silvera, Jonathan [University Paris Est Creteil (UPEC), Creteil (France); Assistance Publique-Hopitaux de Paris, Paris (France); Hopital Henri Mondor, Department of Neuroradiology, Creteil (France); Bekaert, Olivier; Decq, Philippe [Unite Analyse et Restauration du Mouvement, UMR-CNRS, 8005 LBM ParisTech Ensam, Paris (France); University Paris Est Creteil (UPEC), Creteil (France); Assistance Publique-Hopitaux de Paris, Paris (France); Hopital Henri Mondor, Department of Neurosurgery, Creteil (France); Rahmouni, Alain [University Paris Est Creteil (UPEC), Creteil (France); Assistance Publique-Hopitaux de Paris, Paris (France); Hopital Henri Mondor, Department of Radiology, Creteil (France); Bastuji-Garin, Sylvie [University Paris Est Creteil (UPEC), Creteil (France); Assistance Publique-Hopitaux de Paris, Paris (France); Hopital Henri Mondor, Department of Public Health, Creteil (France); Vignaud, Alexandre [Siemens Healthcare, Saint Denis (France); Petit, Eric; Durning, Bruno [Laboratoire Images Signaux et Systemes Intelligents, UPEC, Creteil (France)

2011-02-15

To assess the three-dimensional turbo spin echo with variable flip-angle distribution magnetic resonance sequence (SPACE: Sampling Perfection with Application optimised Contrast using different flip-angle Evolution) for the imaging of intracranial cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) spaces. We prospectively investigated 18 healthy volunteers and 25 patients, 20 with communicating hydrocephalus (CH), five with non-communicating hydrocephalus (NCH), using the SPACE sequence at 1.5T. Volume rendering views of both intracranial and ventricular CSF were obtained for all patients and volunteers. The subarachnoid CSF distribution was qualitatively evaluated on volume rendering views using a four-point scale. The CSF volumes within total, ventricular and subarachnoid spaces were calculated as well as the ratio between ventricular and subarachnoid CSF volumes. Three different patterns of subarachnoid CSF distribution were observed. In healthy volunteers we found narrowed CSF spaces within the occipital aera. A diffuse narrowing of the subarachnoid CSF spaces was observed in patients with NCH whereas patients with CH exhibited narrowed CSF spaces within the high midline convexity. The ratios between ventricular and subarachnoid CSF volumes were significantly different among the volunteers, patients with CH and patients with NCH. The assessment of CSF spaces volume and distribution may help to characterise hydrocephalus. (orig.)

Probability for statisticians

CERN Document Server

Shorack, Galen R

2017-01-01

This 2nd edition textbook offers a rigorous introduction to measure theoretic probability with particular attention to topics of interest to mathematical statisticians—a textbook for courses in probability for students in mathematical statistics. It is recommended to anyone interested in the probability underlying modern statistics, providing a solid grounding in the probabilistic tools and techniques necessary to do theoretical research in statistics. For the teaching of probability theory to post graduate statistics students, this is one of the most attractive books available. Of particular interest is a presentation of the major central limit theorems via Stein's method either prior to or alternative to a characteristic function presentation. Additionally, there is considerable emphasis placed on the quantile function as well as the distribution function. The bootstrap and trimming are both presented. Martingale coverage includes coverage of censored data martingales. The text includes measure theoretic...

High throughput nonparametric probability density estimation.

Science.gov (United States)

Farmer, Jenny; Jacobs, Donald

2018-01-01

In high throughput applications, such as those found in bioinformatics and finance, it is important to determine accurate probability distribution functions despite only minimal information about data characteristics, and without using human subjectivity. Such an automated process for univariate data is implemented to achieve this goal by merging the maximum entropy method with single order statistics and maximum likelihood. The only required properties of the random variables are that they are continuous and that they are, or can be approximated as, independent and identically distributed. A quasi-log-likelihood function based on single order statistics for sampled uniform random data is used to empirically construct a sample size invariant universal scoring function. Then a probability density estimate is determined by iteratively improving trial cumulative distribution functions, where better estimates are quantified by the scoring function that identifies atypical fluctuations. This criterion resists under and over fitting data as an alternative to employing the Bayesian or Akaike information criterion. Multiple estimates for the probability density reflect uncertainties due to statistical fluctuations in random samples. Scaled quantile residual plots are also introduced as an effective diagnostic to visualize the quality of the estimated probability densities. Benchmark tests show that estimates for the probability density function (PDF) converge to the true PDF as sample size increases on particularly difficult test probability densities that include cases with discontinuities, multi-resolution scales, heavy tails, and singularities. These results indicate the method has general applicability for high throughput statistical inference.

Estimation of Extreme Response and Failure Probability of Wind Turbines under Normal Operation using Probability Density Evolution Method

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sichani, Mahdi Teimouri; Nielsen, Søren R.K.; Liu, W. F.

2013-01-01

Estimation of extreme response and failure probability of structures subjected to ultimate design loads is essential for structural design of wind turbines according to the new standard IEC61400-1. This task is focused on in the present paper in virtue of probability density evolution method (PDEM......), which underlies the schemes of random vibration analysis and structural reliability assessment. The short-term rare failure probability of 5-mega-watt wind turbines, for illustrative purposes, in case of given mean wind speeds and turbulence levels is investigated through the scheme of extreme value...... distribution instead of any other approximate schemes of fitted distribution currently used in statistical extrapolation techniques. Besides, the comparative studies against the classical fitted distributions and the standard Monte Carlo techniques are carried out. Numerical results indicate that PDEM exhibits...

Glancing angle x-ray studies of oxide films

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Davenport, A.J.; Isaacs, H.S.

1989-01-01

High brightness synchrotron radiation incident at glancing angles has been used to study inhibiting species present in low concentrations in oxide films on aluminum. Glancing incident angle fluorescence measurements give surface-sensitive information on the valence state of elements from the shape of the x-ray absorption edge. Angle-resolved measurements show the depth distribution of the species present. 15 refs., 4 figs

Probability of Failure in Random Vibration

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Søren R.K.; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

1988-01-01

Close approximations to the first-passage probability of failure in random vibration can be obtained by integral equation methods. A simple relation exists between the first-passage probability density function and the distribution function for the time interval spent below a barrier before out......-crossing. An integral equation for the probability density function of the time interval is formulated, and adequate approximations for the kernel are suggested. The kernel approximation results in approximate solutions for the probability density function of the time interval and thus for the first-passage probability...

Approximation of ruin probabilities via Erlangized scale mixtures

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Peralta, Oscar; Rojas-Nandayapa, Leonardo; Xie, Wangyue

2018-01-01

In this paper, we extend an existing scheme for numerically calculating the probability of ruin of a classical Cramér–Lundbergreserve process having absolutely continuous but otherwise general claim size distributions. We employ a dense class of distributions that we denominate Erlangized scale...... a simple methodology for constructing a sequence of distributions having the form Π⋆G with the purpose of approximating the integrated tail distribution of the claim sizes. Then we adapt a recent result which delivers an explicit expression for the probability of ruin in the case that the claim size...... distribution is modeled as an Erlangized scale mixture. We provide simplified expressions for the approximation of the probability of ruin and construct explicit bounds for the error of approximation. We complement our results with a classical example where the claim sizes are heavy-tailed....

Demonstrating of Cosmic Ray Characteristics by Estimating the Cherenkov Light Lateral Distribution Function for Yakutsk Array as a Function of the Zenith Angle

OpenAIRE

Abdulsttar, Marwah M.; Al-Rubaiee, A. A.; Ali, Abdul Halim Kh.

2016-01-01

Cherenkov light lateral distribution function (CLLDF) in Extensive Air Showers (EAS) for different primary particles (e-, n , p, F, K and Fe) was simulated using CORSIKA code for conditions and configurations of Yakutsk EAS array with the fixed primary energy 3 PeV around the knee region at different zenith angles. Basing on the results of CLLDF numerical simulation, sets of approximated functions are reconstructed for different primary particles as a function of the zenith angle. A compariso...

The probability representation as a new formulation of quantum mechanics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Man'ko, Margarita A; Man'ko, Vladimir I

2012-01-01

We present a new formulation of conventional quantum mechanics, in which the notion of a quantum state is identified via a fair probability distribution of the position measured in a reference frame of the phase space with rotated axes. In this formulation, the quantum evolution equation as well as the equation for finding energy levels are expressed as linear equations for the probability distributions that determine the quantum states. We also give the integral transforms relating the probability distribution (called the tomographic-probability distribution or the state tomogram) to the density matrix and the Wigner function and discuss their connection with the Radon transform. Qudit states are considered and the invertible map of the state density operators onto the probability vectors is discussed. The tomographic entropies and entropic uncertainty relations are reviewed. We demonstrate the uncertainty relations for the position and momentum and the entropic uncertainty relations in the tomographic-probability representation, which is suitable for an experimental check of the uncertainty relations.

Scoring Rules for Subjective Probability Distributions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Harrison, Glenn W.; Martínez-Correa, Jimmy; Swarthout, J. Todd

2017-01-01

significantly due to risk aversion. We characterize an approach for eliciting the entire subjective belief distribution that is minimally biased due to risk aversion. We offer simulated examples to demonstrate the intuition of our approach. We also provide theory to formally characterize our framework. And we...... provide experimental evidence which corroborates our theoretical results. We conclude that for empirically plausible levels of risk aversion, one can reliably elicit most important features of the latent subjective belief distribution without undertaking calibration for risk attitudes providing one...

Influence of nucleon density distribution in nucleon emission probability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Paul, Sabyasachi; Nandy, Maitreyee; Mohanty, A.K.; Sarkar, P.K.; Gambhir, Y.K.

2014-01-01

Different decay modes are observed in heavy ion reactions at low to intermediate energies. It is interesting to study total neutron emission in these reactions which may be contributed by all/many of these decay modes. In an attempt to understand the importance of mean field and the entrance channel angular momentum, we study their influence on the emission probability of nucleons in heavy ion reactions in this work. This study owes its significance to the fact that once population of different states are determined, emission probability governs the double differential neutron yield

Probability densities and Lévy densities

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Barndorff-Nielsen, Ole Eiler

For positive Lévy processes (i.e. subordinators) formulae are derived that express the probability density or the distribution function in terms of power series in time t. The applicability of the results to finance and to turbulence is briefly indicated.......For positive Lévy processes (i.e. subordinators) formulae are derived that express the probability density or the distribution function in terms of power series in time t. The applicability of the results to finance and to turbulence is briefly indicated....

Probability an introduction

CERN Document Server

Grimmett, Geoffrey

2014-01-01

Probability is an area of mathematics of tremendous contemporary importance across all aspects of human endeavour. This book is a compact account of the basic features of probability and random processes at the level of first and second year mathematics undergraduates and Masters' students in cognate fields. It is suitable for a first course in probability, plus a follow-up course in random processes including Markov chains. A special feature is the authors' attention to rigorous mathematics: not everything is rigorous, but the need for rigour is explained at difficult junctures. The text is enriched by simple exercises, together with problems (with very brief hints) many of which are taken from final examinations at Cambridge and Oxford. The first eight chapters form a course in basic probability, being an account of events, random variables, and distributions - discrete and continuous random variables are treated separately - together with simple versions of the law of large numbers and the central limit th...

The application of low angle Rutherford backscattering and channelling techniques to determine implantation induced disorder profile distributions in semiconductors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ahmed, N.A.G.; Christodoulides, C.E.; Carter, G.; Nobes, M.J.; Titov, A.I.

1980-01-01

Low angle exit (9 0 ) Rutherford backscattering geometry and channelling of 2 MeV 4 He + are employed to investigate the disorder depth profiles created by 40 keV N + implantation in (111) silicon and (100) GaAs targets. Parameters which can influence the disordering rate and its spatial distribution, such as ion fluence flux, substrate type and substrate temperature are examined. Under certain implantation conditions, the damage profile distributions are asymmetric - exhibiting a bimodal form in silicon targets or confined much closer to the GaAs surface than the normally expected mean range of 40 keV N + ions. (orig.)

Probability theory and mathematical statistics for engineers

CERN Document Server

Pugachev, V S

1984-01-01

Probability Theory and Mathematical Statistics for Engineers focuses on the concepts of probability theory and mathematical statistics for finite-dimensional random variables.The publication first underscores the probabilities of events, random variables, and numerical characteristics of random variables. Discussions focus on canonical expansions of random vectors, second-order moments of random vectors, generalization of the density concept, entropy of a distribution, direct evaluation of probabilities, and conditional probabilities. The text then examines projections of random vector

The OH + D2 --> HOD + D angle-velocity distribution: quasi-classical trajectory calculations on the YZCL2 and WSLFH potential energy surfaces and comparison with experiments at ET = 0.28 eV.

Science.gov (United States)

Sierra, José Daniel; Martínez, Rodrigo; Hernando, Jordi; González, Miguel

2009-12-28

The angle-velocity distribution (HOD) of the OH + D(2) reaction at a relative translational energy of 0.28 eV has been calculated using the quasi-classical trajectory (QCT) method on the two most recent potential energy surfaces available (YZCL2 and WSLFH PESs), widely extending a previous investigation of our group. Comparison with the high resolution experiments of Davis and co-workers (Science, 2000, 290, 958) shows that the structures (peaks) found in the relative translational energy distributions of products could not be satisfactorily reproduced in the calculations, probably due to the classical nature of the QCT method and the importance of quantum effects. The calculations, however, worked quite well for other properties. Overall, both surfaces led to similar results, although the YZCL2 surface is more accurate to describe the H(3)O PES, as derived from comparison with high level ab initio results. The differences observed in the QCT calculations were interpreted considering the somewhat larger anisotropy of the YZCL2 PES when compared with the WSLFH PES.

VIBRATION ISOLATION SYSTEM PROBABILITY ANALYSIS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Smirnov Vladimir Alexandrovich

2012-10-01

Full Text Available The article deals with the probability analysis for a vibration isolation system of high-precision equipment, which is extremely sensitive to low-frequency oscillations even of submicron amplitude. The external sources of low-frequency vibrations may include the natural city background or internal low-frequency sources inside buildings (pedestrian activity, HVAC. Taking Gauss distribution into account, the author estimates the probability of the relative displacement of the isolated mass being still lower than the vibration criteria. This problem is being solved in the three dimensional space, evolved by the system parameters, including damping and natural frequency. According to this probability distribution, the chance of exceeding the vibration criteria for a vibration isolation system is evaluated. Optimal system parameters - damping and natural frequency - are being developed, thus the possibility of exceeding vibration criteria VC-E and VC-D is assumed to be less than 0.04.

Physical mechanism causing rapid changes in ultrarelativistic electron pitch angle distributions right after a shock arrival: Evaluation of an electron dropout event: Drift Shell Splitting on the Dayside

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang, X.-J.; University of California, Los Angeles, CA; Li, W.; Boston University, MA; Thorne, R. M.

2016-01-01

Three mechanisms have been proposed to explain relativistic electron flux depletions (dropouts) in the Earth's outer radiation belt during storm times: adiabatic expansion of electron drift shells due to a decrease in magnetic field strength, magnetopause shadowing and subsequent outward radial diffusion, and precipitation into the atmosphere (driven by EMIC wave scattering). Which mechanism predominates in causing electron dropouts commonly observed in the outer radiation belt is still debatable. In the present study, we evaluate the physical mechanism that may be primarily responsible for causing the sudden change in relativistic electron pitch angle distributions during a dropout event observed by Van Allen Probes during the main phase of the 27 February 2014 storm. During this event, the phase space density of ultrarelativistic (>1MeV) electrons was depleted by more than 1 order of magnitude over the entire radial extent of the outer radiation belt (3 < L* < 5) in less than 6 h after the passage of an interplanetary shock. We model the electron pitch angle distribution under a compressed magnetic field topology based on actual solar wind conditions. Although these ultrarelativistic electrons exhibit highly anisotropic (peaked in 90°), energy-dependent pitch angle distributions, which appear to be associated with the typical EMIC wave scattering, comparison of the modeled electron distribution to electron measurements indicates that drift shell splitting is responsible for this rapid change in electron pitch angle distributions. This further indicates that magnetopause loss is the predominant cause of the electron dropout right after the shock arrival.

Spatial probability aids visual stimulus discrimination

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Michael Druker

2010-08-01

Full Text Available We investigated whether the statistical predictability of a target's location would influence how quickly and accurately it was classified. Recent results have suggested that spatial probability can be a cue for the allocation of attention in visual search. One explanation for probability cuing is spatial repetition priming. In our two experiments we used probability distributions that were continuous across the display rather than relying on a few arbitrary screen locations. This produced fewer spatial repeats and allowed us to dissociate the effect of a high probability location from that of short-term spatial repetition. The task required participants to quickly judge the color of a single dot presented on a computer screen. In Experiment 1, targets were more probable in an off-center hotspot of high probability that gradually declined to a background rate. Targets garnered faster responses if they were near earlier target locations (priming and if they were near the high probability hotspot (probability cuing. In Experiment 2, target locations were chosen on three concentric circles around fixation. One circle contained 80% of targets. The value of this ring distribution is that it allowed for a spatially restricted high probability zone in which sequentially repeated trials were not likely to be physically close. Participant performance was sensitive to the high-probability circle in addition to the expected effects of eccentricity and the distance to recent targets. These two experiments suggest that inhomogeneities in spatial probability can be learned and used by participants on-line and without prompting as an aid for visual stimulus discrimination and that spatial repetition priming is not a sufficient explanation for this effect. Future models of attention should consider explicitly incorporating the probabilities of targets locations and features.

Wigner function and the probability representation of quantum states

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Man’ko Margarita A.

2014-01-01

Full Text Available The relation of theWigner function with the fair probability distribution called tomographic distribution or quantum tomogram associated with the quantum state is reviewed. The connection of the tomographic picture of quantum mechanics with the integral Radon transform of the Wigner quasidistribution is discussed. The Wigner–Moyal equation for the Wigner function is presented in the form of kinetic equation for the tomographic probability distribution both in quantum mechanics and in the classical limit of the Liouville equation. The calculation of moments of physical observables in terms of integrals with the state tomographic probability distributions is constructed having a standard form of averaging in the probability theory. New uncertainty relations for the position and momentum are written in terms of optical tomograms suitable for directexperimental check. Some recent experiments on checking the uncertainty relations including the entropic uncertainty relations are discussed.

Benchmarking PARTISN with Analog Monte Carlo: Moments of the Neutron Number and the Cumulative Fission Number Probability Distributions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

O' Rourke, Patrick Francis [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

2016-10-27

The purpose of this report is to provide the reader with an understanding of how a Monte Carlo neutron transport code was written, developed, and evolved to calculate the probability distribution functions (PDFs) and their moments for the neutron number at a final time as well as the cumulative fission number, along with introducing several basic Monte Carlo concepts.

A probability distribution model of tooth pits for evaluating time-varying mesh stiffness of pitting gears

Science.gov (United States)

Lei, Yaguo; Liu, Zongyao; Wang, Delong; Yang, Xiao; Liu, Huan; Lin, Jing

2018-06-01

Tooth damage often causes a reduction in gear mesh stiffness. Thus time-varying mesh stiffness (TVMS) can be treated as an indication of gear health conditions. This study is devoted to investigating the mesh stiffness variations of a pair of external spur gears with tooth pitting, and proposes a new model for describing tooth pitting based on probability distribution. In the model, considering the appearance and development process of tooth pitting, we model the pitting on the surface of spur gear teeth as a series of pits with a uniform distribution in the direction of tooth width and a normal distribution in the direction of tooth height, respectively. In addition, four pitting degrees, from no pitting to severe pitting, are modeled. Finally, influences of tooth pitting on TVMS are analyzed in details and the proposed model is validated by comparing with a finite element model. The comparison results show that the proposed model is effective for the TVMS evaluations of pitting gears.

Uncertainty about probability: a decision analysis perspective

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Howard, R.A.

1988-01-01

The issue of how to think about uncertainty about probability is framed and analyzed from the viewpoint of a decision analyst. The failure of nuclear power plants is used as an example. The key idea is to think of probability as describing a state of information on an uncertain event, and to pose the issue of uncertainty in this quantity as uncertainty about a number that would be definitive: it has the property that you would assign it as the probability if you knew it. Logical consistency requires that the probability to assign to a single occurrence in the absence of further information be the mean of the distribution of this definitive number, not the medium as is sometimes suggested. Any decision that must be made without the benefit of further information must also be made using the mean of the definitive number's distribution. With this formulation, they find further that the probability of r occurrences in n exchangeable trials will depend on the first n moments of the definitive number's distribution. In making decisions, the expected value of clairvoyance on the occurrence of the event must be at least as great as that on the definitive number. If one of the events in question occurs, then the increase in probability of another such event is readily computed. This means, in terms of coin tossing, that unless one is absolutely sure of the fairness of a coin, seeing a head must increase the probability of heads, in distinction to usual thought. A numerical example for nuclear power shows that the failure of one plant of a group with a low probability of failure can significantly increase the probability that must be assigned to failure of a second plant in the group

Large-angle positronium emission for Al(110)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schultz, P.J.; Lynn, K.G.; Frieze, W.E.

1984-10-01

Mono-energetic positrons have been used to study the time-of-flight distribution of ortho-positronium (o-Ps) formed just outside the surface of an Al(110) single crystal. The data are interpreted in terms of two predominant angular distributions for the directly formed o-Ps: one that is peaked towards the surface normal and another that is directed towards large angles. These processes are shown to be very sensitive to both oxygen exposure and Ar + ion sputtering. Ps emitted at large-angles may be evidence of formation with electrons propagating in a two-dimensional surface state

Probability distribution functions for ELM bursts in a series of JET tokamak discharges

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Greenhough, J; Chapman, S C; Dendy, R O; Ward, D J

2003-01-01

A novel statistical treatment of the full raw edge localized mode (ELM) signal from a series of previously studied JET plasmas is tested. The approach involves constructing probability distribution functions (PDFs) for ELM amplitudes and time separations, and quantifying the fit between the measured PDFs and model distributions (Gaussian, inverse exponential) and Poisson processes. Uncertainties inherent in the discreteness of the raw signal require the application of statistically rigorous techniques to distinguish ELM data points from background, and to extrapolate peak amplitudes. The accuracy of PDF construction is further constrained by the relatively small number of ELM bursts (several hundred) in each sample. In consequence the statistical technique is found to be difficult to apply to low frequency (typically Type I) ELMs, so the focus is narrowed to four JET plasmas with high frequency (typically Type III) ELMs. The results suggest that there may be several fundamentally different kinds of Type III ELMing process at work. It is concluded that this novel statistical treatment can be made to work, may have wider applications to ELM data, and has immediate practical value as an additional quantitative discriminant between classes of ELMing behaviour

Calculating the Prior Probability Distribution for a Causal Network Using Maximum Entropy: Alternative Approaches

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Michael J. Markham

2011-07-01

Full Text Available Some problems occurring in Expert Systems can be resolved by employing a causal (Bayesian network and methodologies exist for this purpose. These require data in a specific form and make assumptions about the independence relationships involved. Methodologies using Maximum Entropy (ME are free from these conditions and have the potential to be used in a wider context including systems consisting of given sets of linear and independence constraints, subject to consistency and convergence. ME can also be used to validate results from the causal network methodologies. Three ME methods for determining the prior probability distribution of causal network systems are considered. The first method is Sequential Maximum Entropy in which the computation of a progression of local distributions leads to the over-all distribution. This is followed by development of the Method of Tribus. The development takes the form of an algorithm that includes the handling of explicit independence constraints. These fall into two groups those relating parents of vertices, and those deduced from triangulation of the remaining graph. The third method involves a variation in the part of that algorithm which handles independence constraints. Evidence is presented that this adaptation only requires the linear constraints and the parental independence constraints to emulate the second method in a substantial class of examples.

Collision Probability Analysis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hansen, Peter Friis; Pedersen, Preben Terndrup

1998-01-01

It is the purpose of this report to apply a rational model for prediction of ship-ship collision probabilities as function of the ship and the crew characteristics and the navigational environment for MS Dextra sailing on a route between Cadiz and the Canary Islands.The most important ship and crew...... characteristics are: ship speed, ship manoeuvrability, the layout of the navigational bridge, the radar system, the number and the training of navigators, the presence of a look out etc. The main parameters affecting the navigational environment are ship traffic density, probability distributions of wind speeds...... probability, i.e. a study of the navigator's role in resolving critical situations, a causation factor is derived as a second step.The report documents the first step in a probabilistic collision damage analysis. Future work will inlcude calculation of energy released for crushing of structures giving...

Assignment of probability distributions for parameters in the 1996 performance assessment for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant. Part 1: description of process

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rechard, Rob P.; Tierney, Martin S.

2005-01-01

A managed process was used to consistently and traceably develop probability distributions for parameters representing epistemic uncertainty in four preliminary and the final 1996 performance assessment (PA) for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP). The key to the success of the process was the use of a three-member team consisting of a Parameter Task Leader, PA Analyst, and Subject Matter Expert. This team, in turn, relied upon a series of guidelines for selecting distribution types. The primary function of the guidelines was not to constrain the actual process of developing a parameter distribution but rather to establish a series of well-defined steps where recognized methods would be consistently applied to all parameters. An important guideline was to use a small set of distributions satisfying the maximum entropy formalism. Another important guideline was the consistent use of the log transform for parameters with large ranges (i.e. maximum/minimum>10 3 ). A parameter development team assigned 67 probability density functions (PDFs) in the 1989 PA and 236 PDFs in the 1996 PA using these and other guidelines described

Concepts of probability theory

CERN Document Server

Pfeiffer, Paul E

1979-01-01

Using the Kolmogorov model, this intermediate-level text discusses random variables, probability distributions, mathematical expectation, random processes, more. For advanced undergraduates students of science, engineering, or math. Includes problems with answers and six appendixes. 1965 edition.

Choice probability generating functions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Fosgerau, Mogens; McFadden, Daniel; Bierlaire, Michel

2010-01-01

This paper establishes that every random utility discrete choice model (RUM) has a representation that can be characterized by a choice-probability generating function (CPGF) with specific properties, and that every function with these specific properties is consistent with a RUM. The choice...... probabilities from the RUM are obtained from the gradient of the CPGF. Mixtures of RUM are characterized by logarithmic mixtures of their associated CPGF. The paper relates CPGF to multivariate extreme value distributions, and reviews and extends methods for constructing generating functions for applications....... The choice probabilities of any ARUM may be approximated by a cross-nested logit model. The results for ARUM are extended to competing risk survival models....

Measurement of the weak mixing angle and the spin of the gluon from angular distributions in the reaction pp→ Z/γ*+X→μ+μ-+X with ATLAS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schmieden, Kristof

2013-04-01

The measurement of the effective weak mixing angle with the ATLAS experiment at the LHC is presented. It is extracted from the forward-backward asymmetry in the polar angle distribution of the muons originating from Z boson decays in the reaction pp→Z/γ * +X→ μ + μ - +X. In total 4.7 fb -1 of proton-proton collisions at √(s)=7 TeV are analysed. In addition, the full polar and azimuthal angular distributions are measured as a function of the transverse momentum of the Z/γ * system and are compared to several simulations as well as recent results obtained in p anti p collisions. Finally, the angular distributions are used to confirm the spin of the gluon using the Lam-Tung relation.

Pattern recognition in spaces of probability distributions for the analysis of edge-localized modes in tokamak plasmas

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Shabbir, Aqsa

2016-07-07

In this doctoral work, pattern recognition techniques are developed and applied to data from tokamak plasmas, in order to contribute to a systematic analysis of edge-localized modes (ELMs). We employ probabilistic models for a quantitative data description geared towards an enhanced systematization of ELM phenomenology. Hence, we start from the point of view that the fundamental object resulting from the observation of a system is a probability distribution, with every single measurement providing a sample from this distribution. In exploring the patterns emerging from the various ELM regimes and relations, we need methods that can handle the intrinsic probabilistic nature of the data. The original contributions of this work are twofold. First, several novel pattern recognition methods in non-Euclidean spaces of probability distribution functions (PDFs) are developed and validated. The second main contribution lies in the application of these and other techniques to a systematic analysis of ELMs in tokamak plasmas. In regard to the methodological aims of the work, we employ the framework of information geometry to develop pattern visualization and classification methods in spaces of probability distributions. In information geometry, a family of probability distributions is considered as a Riemannian manifold. Every point on the manifold represents a single PDF and the distribution parameters provide local coordinates on the manifold. The Fisher information plays the role of a Riemannian metric tensor, enabling calculation of geodesic curves on the surface. The length of such curves yields the geodesic distance (GD) on probabilistic manifolds, which is a natural similarity (distance) measure between PDFs. Equipped with a suitable distance measure, we extrapolate several distance-based pattern recognition methods to the manifold setting. This includes k-nearest neighbor (kNN) and conformal predictor (CP) methods for classification, as well as multidimensional

Pattern recognition in spaces of probability distributions for the analysis of edge-localized modes in tokamak plasmas

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shabbir, Aqsa

2016-01-01

In this doctoral work, pattern recognition techniques are developed and applied to data from tokamak plasmas, in order to contribute to a systematic analysis of edge-localized modes (ELMs). We employ probabilistic models for a quantitative data description geared towards an enhanced systematization of ELM phenomenology. Hence, we start from the point of view that the fundamental object resulting from the observation of a system is a probability distribution, with every single measurement providing a sample from this distribution. In exploring the patterns emerging from the various ELM regimes and relations, we need methods that can handle the intrinsic probabilistic nature of the data. The original contributions of this work are twofold. First, several novel pattern recognition methods in non-Euclidean spaces of probability distribution functions (PDFs) are developed and validated. The second main contribution lies in the application of these and other techniques to a systematic analysis of ELMs in tokamak plasmas. In regard to the methodological aims of the work, we employ the framework of information geometry to develop pattern visualization and classification methods in spaces of probability distributions. In information geometry, a family of probability distributions is considered as a Riemannian manifold. Every point on the manifold represents a single PDF and the distribution parameters provide local coordinates on the manifold. The Fisher information plays the role of a Riemannian metric tensor, enabling calculation of geodesic curves on the surface. The length of such curves yields the geodesic distance (GD) on probabilistic manifolds, which is a natural similarity (distance) measure between PDFs. Equipped with a suitable distance measure, we extrapolate several distance-based pattern recognition methods to the manifold setting. This includes k-nearest neighbor (kNN) and conformal predictor (CP) methods for classification, as well as multidimensional

Investigation of Probability Distributions Using Dice Rolling Simulation

Science.gov (United States)

Lukac, Stanislav; Engel, Radovan

2010-01-01

Dice are considered one of the oldest gambling devices and thus many mathematicians have been interested in various dice gambling games in the past. Dice have been used to teach probability, and dice rolls can be effectively simulated using technology. The National Council of Teachers of Mathematics (NCTM) recommends that teachers use simulations…

Determination of velocity vector angles using the directional cross-correlation method

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kortbek, Jacob; Jensen, Jørgen Arendt

2005-01-01

and then select the angle with the highest normalized correlation between directional signals. The approach is investigated using Field II simulations and data from the experimental ultrasound scanner RASMUS and with a parabolic flow having a peak velocity of 0.3 m/s. A 7 MHz linear array transducer is used......A method for determining both velocity magnitude and angle in any direction is suggested. The method uses focusing along the velocity direction and cross-correlation for finding the correct velocity magnitude. The angle is found from beamforming directional signals in a number of directions......-time ) between signals to correlate, and a proper choice varies with flow angle and flow velocity. One performance example is given with a fixed value of k tprf for all flow angles. The angle estimation on measured data for flow at 60 ◦ to 90 ◦ , yields a probability of valid estimates between 68% and 98...

Characterization of the energy distribution of neutrons generated by 5 MeV protons on a thick beryllium target at different emission angles

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Agosteo, S. [Politecnico di Milano, Dipartimento di Energia, Piazza Leonardo da Vinci 32, 20133 Milano (Italy)] [Istituto Nazionale di Fisica Nucleare, Sezione di Milano, via Celoria 16, 20133 Milano (Italy); Colautti, P., E-mail: paolo.colautti@lnl.infn.it [INFN, Laboratori Nazionali di Legnaro (LNL), Via dell' Universita, 2, I-35020 Legnaro (PD) (Italy); Esposito, J., E-mail: juan.esposito@tin.it [INFN, Laboratori Nazionali di Legnaro (LNL), Via dell' Universita, 2, I-35020 Legnaro (PD) (Italy); Fazzi, A.; Introini, M.V.; Pola, A. [Politecnico di Milano, Dipartimento di Energia, Piazza Leonardo da Vinci 32, 20133 Milano (Italy)] [Istituto Nazionale di Fisica Nucleare, Sezione di Milano, via Celoria 16, 20133 Milano (Italy)

2011-12-15

Neutron energy spectra at different emission angles, between 0 Degree-Sign and 120 Degree-Sign from the Be(p,xn) reaction generated by a beryllium thick-target bombarded with 5 MeV protons, have been measured at the Legnaro Laboratories (LNL) of the Italian National Institute for Nuclear Physics research (INFN). A new and quite compact recoil-proton spectrometer, based on a monolithic silicon telescope, coupled to a polyethylene converter, was efficiently used with respect to the traditional Time-of-Flight (TOF) technique. The measured distributions of recoil-protons were processed through an iterative unfolding algorithm in order to determine the neutron energy spectra at all the angles accounted for. The neutron energy spectrum measured at 0 Degree-Sign resulted to be in good agreement with the only one so far available at the requested energy and measured years ago with TOF technique. Moreover, the results obtained at different emission angles resulted to be consistent with detailed past measurements performed at 4 MeV protons at the same angles by TOF techniques.

Deep learning methods for protein torsion angle prediction.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Haiou; Hou, Jie; Adhikari, Badri; Lyu, Qiang; Cheng, Jianlin

2017-09-18

Deep learning is one of the most powerful machine learning methods that has achieved the state-of-the-art performance in many domains. Since deep learning was introduced to the field of bioinformatics in 2012, it has achieved success in a number of areas such as protein residue-residue contact prediction, secondary structure prediction, and fold recognition. In this work, we developed deep learning methods to improve the prediction of torsion (dihedral) angles of proteins. We design four different deep learning architectures to predict protein torsion angles. The architectures including deep neural network (DNN) and deep restricted Boltzmann machine (DRBN), deep recurrent neural network (DRNN) and deep recurrent restricted Boltzmann machine (DReRBM) since the protein torsion angle prediction is a sequence related problem. In addition to existing protein features, two new features (predicted residue contact number and the error distribution of torsion angles extracted from sequence fragments) are used as input to each of the four deep learning architectures to predict phi and psi angles of protein backbone. The mean absolute error (MAE) of phi and psi angles predicted by DRNN, DReRBM, DRBM and DNN is about 20-21° and 29-30° on an independent dataset. The MAE of phi angle is comparable to the existing methods, but the MAE of psi angle is 29°, 2° lower than the existing methods. On the latest CASP12 targets, our methods also achieved the performance better than or comparable to a state-of-the art method. Our experiment demonstrates that deep learning is a valuable method for predicting protein torsion angles. The deep recurrent network architecture performs slightly better than deep feed-forward architecture, and the predicted residue contact number and the error distribution of torsion angles extracted from sequence fragments are useful features for improving prediction accuracy.

Performance Probability Distributions for Sediment Control Best Management Practices

Science.gov (United States)

Ferrell, L.; Beighley, R.; Walsh, K.

2007-12-01

Controlling soil erosion and sediment transport can be a significant challenge during the construction process due to the extent and conditions of bare, disturbed soils. Best Management Practices (BMPs) are used as the framework for the design of sediment discharge prevention systems in stormwater pollution prevention plans which are typically required for construction sites. This research focuses on commonly-used BMP systems for perimeter control of sediment export: silt fences and fiber rolls. Although these systems are widely used, the physical and engineering parameters describing their performance are not well understood. Performance expectations are based on manufacturer results, but due to the dynamic conditions that exist on a construction site performance expectations are not always achievable in the field. Based on experimental results product performance is shown to be highly variable. Experiments using the same installation procedures show inconsistent sediment removal performances ranging from (>)85 percent to zero. The goal of this research is to improve the determination of off-site sediment yield based on probabilistic performance results of perimeter control BMPs. BMPs are evaluated in the Soil Erosion Research Laboratory (SERL) in the Civil and Environmental Engineering department at San Diego State University. SERL experiments are performed on a 3-m by 10-m tilting soil bed with a soil depth of 0.5 meters and a slope of 33 percent. The simulated storm event consists of 17 mm/hr for 20 minutes followed by 51 mm/hr for 30 minutes. The storm event is based on an ASTM design storm intended to simulate BMP failures. BMP performance is assessed based on experiments where BMPs are installed per manufacture specifications, less than optimal installations, and no treatment conditions. Preliminary results from 30 experiments are presented and used to develop probability distributions for BMP sediment removal efficiencies. The results are then combined with

A discussion on the origin of quantum probabilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Holik, Federico; Sáenz, Manuel; Plastino, Angel

2014-01-01

We study the origin of quantum probabilities as arising from non-Boolean propositional-operational structures. We apply the method developed by Cox to non distributive lattices and develop an alternative formulation of non-Kolmogorovian probability measures for quantum mechanics. By generalizing the method presented in previous works, we outline a general framework for the deduction of probabilities in general propositional structures represented by lattices (including the non-distributive case). -- Highlights: •Several recent works use a derivation similar to that of R.T. Cox to obtain quantum probabilities. •We apply Cox’s method to the lattice of subspaces of the Hilbert space. •We obtain a derivation of quantum probabilities which includes mixed states. •The method presented in this work is susceptible to generalization. •It includes quantum mechanics and classical mechanics as particular cases

Characteristics of pitch angle distributions of hundreds of keV electrons in the slot region and inner radiation belt

Science.gov (United States)

Zhao, H.; Li, X.; Blake, J. B.; Fennell, J. F.; Claudepierre, S. G.; Baker, D. N.; Jaynes, A. N.; Malaspina, D. M.

2014-12-01

The pitch angle distribution (PAD) of energetic electrons in the slot region and inner radiation belt received little attention in the past decades due to the lack of quality measurements. Using the state-of-the-art pitch angle-resolved data from the Magnetic Electron Ion Spectrometer instrument onboard the Van Allen Probes, a detailed analysis of hundreds of keV electron PADs below L = 4 is performed, in which the PADs are categorized into three types: normal (flux peaking at 90°), cap (exceedingly peaking narrowly around 90°), and 90° minimum (lower flux at 90°) PADs. By examining the characteristics of the PADs of ˜460 keV electrons for over a year, we find that the 90° minimum PADs are generally present in the inner belt (Lpitch angle scattering of hiss waves. Fitting the normal PADs into sinnα form, the parameter n is much higher below L = 3 than that in the outer belt and relatively constant in the inner belt but changes significantly in the slot region (2 mechanism can hardly explain the formation of 90° minimum PADs at the center of inner belt.

Wave functions and two-electron probability distributions of the Hooke's-law atom and helium

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

O'Neill, Darragh P.; Gill, Peter M. W.

2003-01-01

The Hooke's-law atom (hookium) provides an exactly soluble model for a two-electron atom in which the nuclear-electron Coulombic attraction has been replaced by a harmonic one. Starting from the known exact position-space wave function for the ground state of hookium, we present the momentum-space wave function. We also look at the intracules, two-electron probability distributions, for hookium in position, momentum, and phase space. These are compared with the Hartree-Fock results and the Coulomb holes (the difference between the exact and Hartree-Fock intracules) in position, momentum, and phase space are examined. We then compare these results with analogous results for the ground state of helium using a simple, explicitly correlated wave function

Internal Friction Angle of Metal Powders

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jiri Zegzulka

2018-04-01

Full Text Available Metal powders are components with multidisciplinary usage as their application is very broad. Their consistent characterization across all disciplines is important for ensuring repeatable and trouble-free processes. Ten metal powders were tested in the study. In all cases, the particle size distribution and morphology (scanning electron microscope—SEM photos were determined. The aim of this work was to inspect the flow behavior of metal powders through another measured characteristic, namely the angle of internal friction. The measured values of the effective internal friction angle in the range 28.6–32.9°, together with the spherical particle shape and the particle size distribution, revealed the likely dominant mode of the metal particle transfer mechanism for stainless steel 316L, zinc and aluminum powder. This third piston flow mechanism is described and illustrated in detail. The angle of internal friction is mentioned as another suitable parameter for the characterization of metal powders, not only for the relative simplicity of the determination but also for gaining insight into the method of the movement of individual particles during the flow.

A Neural Network Approach for Identifying Particle Pitch Angle Distributions in Van Allen Probes Data

Science.gov (United States)

Souza, V. M.; Vieira, L. E. A.; Medeiros, C.; Da Silva, L. A.; Alves, L. R.; Koga, D.; Sibeck, D. G.; Walsh, B. M.; Kanekal, S. G.; Jauer, P. R.;

Electron Pitch-Angle Distribution in Pressure Balance Structures Measured by Ulysses/SWOOPS

Science.gov (United States)

Yamauchi, Yohei; Suess, Steven T.; Sakurai, Takashi; Six, N. Frank (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

Pressure balance structures (PBSs) are a common feature in the high-latitude solar wind near solar minimum. From previous studies, PBSs are believed to be remnants of coronal plumes. Yamauchi et al [2002] investigated the magnetic structures of the PBSs, applying a minimum variance analysis to Ulysses/Magnetometer data. They found that PBSs contain structures like current sheets or plasmoids, and suggested that PBSs are associated with network activity such as magnetic reconnection in the photosphere at the base of polar plumes. We have investigated energetic electron data from Ulysses/SWOOPS to see whether bi-directional electron flow exists and we have found evidence supporting the earlier conclusions. We find that 45 ot of 53 PBSs show local bi-directional or isotopic electron flux or flux associated with current-sheet structure. Only five events show the pitch-angle distribution expected for Alfvenic fluctuations. We conclude that PBSs do contain magnetic structures such as current sheets or plasmoids that are expected as a result of network activity at the base of polar plumes.

Expressions for the Total Yaw Angle

Science.gov (United States)

2016-09-01

1. Introduction 1 2. Mathematical Notation 1 3. Total Yaw Expression Derivations 2 3.1 First Derivation 2 3.2 Second Derivation 4 3.3 Other...4 iv Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. 1. Introduction The total yaw angle, γt , of a ballistic projectile is... elevation angles from spherical coordinates.∗ We again place point A at the end point of V. Now imagine a plane parallel to the y-z plane that includes

Subjective Probabilities for State-Dependent Continuous Utility

NARCIS (Netherlands)

P.P. Wakker (Peter)

1987-01-01

textabstractFor the expected utility model with state dependent utilities, Karni, Schmeidler and Vind (1983) have shown how to recover uniquely the involved subjective probabilities if the preferences, contingent on a hypothetical probability distribution over the state space, are known. This they

Extinction probabilities and stationary distributions of mobile genetic elements in prokaryotes: The birth-death-diversification model.

Science.gov (United States)

Drakos, Nicole E; Wahl, Lindi M

2015-12-01

Theoretical approaches are essential to our understanding of the complex dynamics of mobile genetic elements (MGEs) within genomes. Recently, the birth-death-diversification model was developed to describe the dynamics of mobile promoters (MPs), a particular class of MGEs in prokaryotes. A unique feature of this model is that genetic diversification of elements was included. To explore the implications of diversification on the longterm fate of MGE lineages, in this contribution we analyze the extinction probabilities, extinction times and equilibrium solutions of the birth-death-diversification model. We find that diversification increases both the survival and growth rate of MGE families, but the strength of this effect depends on the rate of horizontal gene transfer (HGT). We also find that the distribution of MGE families per genome is not necessarily monotonically decreasing, as observed for MPs, but may have a peak in the distribution that is related to the HGT rate. For MPs specifically, we find that new families have a high extinction probability, and predict that the number of MPs is increasing, albeit at a very slow rate. Additionally, we develop an extension of the birth-death-diversification model which allows MGEs in different regions of the genome, for example coding and non-coding, to be described by different rates. This extension may offer a potential explanation as to why the majority of MPs are located in non-promoter regions of the genome. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Optimal design of unit hydrographs using probability distribution and ...

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

R. Narasimhan (Krishtel eMaging) 1461 1996 Oct 15 13:05:22

optimization formulation is solved using binary-coded genetic algorithms. The number of variables to ... Unit hydrograph; rainfall-runoff; hydrology; genetic algorithms; optimization; probability ..... Application of the model. Data derived from the ...

Determination by Small-angle X-ray Scattering of Pore Size Distribution in Nanoporous Track-etched Polycarbonate Membranes

Science.gov (United States)

Jonas, A. M.; Legras, R.; Ferain, E.

1998-03-01

Nanoporous track-etched membranes with narrow pore size distributions and average pore size diameters tunable from 100 to 1000 Åare produced by the chemical etching of latent tracks in polymer films after irradiation by a beam of accelerated heavy ions. Nanoporous membranes are used for highly demanding filtration purposes, or as templates to obtain metallic or polymeric nanowires (L. Piraux et al., Nucl. Instr. Meth. Phys. Res. 1997, B131, 357). Such applications call for developments in nanopore size characterization techniques. In this respect, we report on the characterization by small-angle X-ray scattering (SAXS) of nanopore size distribution (nPSD) in polycarbonate track-etched membranes. The obtention of nPSD requires inverting an ill-conditioned inhomogeneous equation. We present different numerical routes to overcome the amplification of experimental errors in the resulting solutions, including a regularization technique allowing to obtain the nPSD without a priori knowledge of its shape. The effect of deviations from cylindrical pore shape on the resulting distributions are analyzed. Finally, SAXS results are compared to results obtained by electron microscopy and conductometry.

Improved process for calculating the probability of being hit by crashing aircraft by the Balfanz-model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hennings, W.

1988-01-01

For calculating the probability of being hit by crashing military aircraft on different buildings, a model was introduced, which has already been used in the conventional fields. In the context of converting the research reactor BER II, this model was also used in the nuclear field. The report introduces this model and shows the application to a vertical cylinder as an example. Compared to the previous model, an exact and also simpler solution of the model attempt for determining the shade surface for different shapes of buildings is derived. The problems of the distribution of crashes given by the previous model is treated via the vertical angle and an attempt to solve these problems is given. (orig./HP) [de

The Bayesian count rate probability distribution in measurement of ionizing radiation by use of a ratemeter

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Weise, K.

2004-06-01

Recent metrological developments concerning measurement uncertainty, founded on Bayesian statistics, give rise to a revision of several parts of the DIN 25482 and ISO 11929 standard series. These series stipulate detection limits and decision thresholds for ionizing-radiation measurements. Part 3 and, respectively, part 4 of them deal with measurements by use of linear-scale analogue ratemeters. A normal frequency distribution of the momentary ratemeter indication for a fixed count rate value is assumed. The actual distribution, which is first calculated numerically by solving an integral equation, differs, however, considerably from the normal distribution although this one represents an approximation of it for sufficiently large values of the count rate to be measured. As is shown, this similarly holds true for the Bayesian probability distribution of the count rate for sufficiently large given measured values indicated by the ratemeter. This distribution follows from the first one mentioned by means of the Bayes theorem. Its expectation value and variance are needed for the standards to be revised on the basis of Bayesian statistics. Simple expressions are given by the present standards for estimating these parameters and for calculating the detection limit and the decision threshold. As is also shown, the same expressions can similarly be used as sufficient approximations by the revised standards if, roughly, the present indicated value exceeds the reciprocal ratemeter relaxation time constant. (orig.)

Determination of stability of epimetamorphic rock slope using Minimax Probability Machine

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Manoj Kumar

2016-01-01

Full Text Available The article employs Minimax Probability Machine (MPM for the prediction of the stability status of epimetamorphic rock slope. The MPM gives a worst-case bound on the probability of misclassification of future data points. Bulk density (d, height (H, inclination (β, cohesion (c and internal friction angle (φ have been used as input of the MPM. This study uses the MPM as a classification technique. Two models {Linear Minimax Probability Machine (LMPM and Kernelized Minimax Probability Machine (KMPM} have been developed. The generalization capability of the developed models has been checked by a case study. The experimental results demonstrate that MPM-based approaches are promising tools for the prediction of the stability status of epimetamorphic rock slope.

Path probabilities of continuous time random walks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Eule, Stephan; Friedrich, Rudolf

2014-01-01

Employing the path integral formulation of a broad class of anomalous diffusion processes, we derive the exact relations for the path probability densities of these processes. In particular, we obtain a closed analytical solution for the path probability distribution of a Continuous Time Random Walk (CTRW) process. This solution is given in terms of its waiting time distribution and short time propagator of the corresponding random walk as a solution of a Dyson equation. Applying our analytical solution we derive generalized Feynman–Kac formulae. (paper)

The mean distance to the nth neighbour in a uniform distribution of random points: an application of probability theory

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bhattacharyya, Pratip; Chakrabarti, Bikas K

2008-01-01

We study different ways of determining the mean distance (r n ) between a reference point and its nth neighbour among random points distributed with uniform density in a D-dimensional Euclidean space. First, we present a heuristic method; though this method provides only a crude mathematical result, it shows a simple way of estimating (r n ). Next, we describe two alternative means of deriving the exact expression of (r n ): we review the method using absolute probability and develop an alternative method using conditional probability. Finally, we obtain an approximation to (r n ) from the mean volume between the reference point and its nth neighbour and compare it with the heuristic and exact results

Probability distributions of bed load particle velocities, accelerations, hop distances, and travel times informed by Jaynes's principle of maximum entropy

Science.gov (United States)

Furbish, David; Schmeeckle, Mark; Schumer, Rina; Fathel, Siobhan

2016-01-01

We describe the most likely forms of the probability distributions of bed load particle velocities, accelerations, hop distances, and travel times, in a manner that formally appeals to inferential statistics while honoring mechanical and kinematic constraints imposed by equilibrium transport conditions. The analysis is based on E. Jaynes's elaboration of the implications of the similarity between the Gibbs entropy in statistical mechanics and the Shannon entropy in information theory. By maximizing the information entropy of a distribution subject to known constraints on its moments, our choice of the form of the distribution is unbiased. The analysis suggests that particle velocities and travel times are exponentially distributed and that particle accelerations follow a Laplace distribution with zero mean. Particle hop distances, viewed alone, ought to be distributed exponentially. However, the covariance between hop distances and travel times precludes this result. Instead, the covariance structure suggests that hop distances follow a Weibull distribution. These distributions are consistent with high-resolution measurements obtained from high-speed imaging of bed load particle motions. The analysis brings us closer to choosing distributions based on our mechanical insight.

Analysis of Observation Data of Earth-Rockfill Dam Based on Cloud Probability Distribution Density Algorithm

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Han Liwei

2014-07-01

Full Text Available Monitoring data on an earth-rockfill dam constitutes a form of spatial data. Such data include much uncertainty owing to the limitation of measurement information, material parameters, load, geometry size, initial conditions, boundary conditions and the calculation model. So the cloud probability density of the monitoring data must be addressed. In this paper, the cloud theory model was used to address the uncertainty transition between the qualitative concept and the quantitative description. Then an improved algorithm of cloud probability distribution density based on a backward cloud generator was proposed. This was used to effectively convert certain parcels of accurate data into concepts which can be described by proper qualitative linguistic values. Such qualitative description was addressed as cloud numerical characteristics-- {Ex, En, He}, which could represent the characteristics of all cloud drops. The algorithm was then applied to analyze the observation data of a piezometric tube in an earth-rockfill dam. And experiment results proved that the proposed algorithm was feasible, through which, we could reveal the changing regularity of piezometric tube’s water level. And the damage of the seepage in the body was able to be found out.

Closed-form solution for the Wigner phase-space distribution function for diffuse reflection and small-angle scattering in a random medium.

Science.gov (United States)

Yura, H T; Thrane, L; Andersen, P E

2000-12-01

Within the paraxial approximation, a closed-form solution for the Wigner phase-space distribution function is derived for diffuse reflection and small-angle scattering in a random medium. This solution is based on the extended Huygens-Fresnel principle for the optical field, which is widely used in studies of wave propagation through random media. The results are general in that they apply to both an arbitrary small-angle volume scattering function, and arbitrary (real) ABCD optical systems. Furthermore, they are valid in both the single- and multiple-scattering regimes. Some general features of the Wigner phase-space distribution function are discussed, and analytic results are obtained for various types of scattering functions in the asymptotic limit s > 1, where s is the optical depth. In particular, explicit results are presented for optical coherence tomography (OCT) systems. On this basis, a novel way of creating OCT images based on measurements of the momentum width of the Wigner phase-space distribution is suggested, and the advantage over conventional OCT images is discussed. Because all previous published studies regarding the Wigner function are carried out in the transmission geometry, it is important to note that the extended Huygens-Fresnel principle and the ABCD matrix formalism may be used successfully to describe this geometry (within the paraxial approximation). Therefore for completeness we present in an appendix the general closed-form solution for the Wigner phase-space distribution function in ABCD paraxial optical systems for direct propagation through random media, and in a second appendix absorption effects are included.

The return period analysis of natural disasters with statistical modeling of bivariate joint probability distribution.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Ning; Liu, Xueqin; Xie, Wei; Wu, Jidong; Zhang, Peng

2013-01-01

New features of natural disasters have been observed over the last several years. The factors that influence the disasters' formation mechanisms, regularity of occurrence and main characteristics have been revealed to be more complicated and diverse in nature than previously thought. As the uncertainty involved increases, the variables need to be examined further. This article discusses the importance and the shortage of multivariate analysis of natural disasters and presents a method to estimate the joint probability of the return periods and perform a risk analysis. Severe dust storms from 1990 to 2008 in Inner Mongolia were used as a case study to test this new methodology, as they are normal and recurring climatic phenomena on Earth. Based on the 79 investigated events and according to the dust storm definition with bivariate, the joint probability distribution of severe dust storms was established using the observed data of maximum wind speed and duration. The joint return periods of severe dust storms were calculated, and the relevant risk was analyzed according to the joint probability. The copula function is able to simulate severe dust storm disasters accurately. The joint return periods generated are closer to those observed in reality than the univariate return periods and thus have more value in severe dust storm disaster mitigation, strategy making, program design, and improvement of risk management. This research may prove useful in risk-based decision making. The exploration of multivariate analysis methods can also lay the foundation for further applications in natural disaster risk analysis. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

High-resolution elastic recoil detection utilizing Bayesian probability theory

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Neumaier, P.; Dollinger, G.; Bergmaier, A.; Genchev, I.; Goergens, L.; Fischer, R.; Ronning, C.; Hofsaess, H.

2001-01-01

Elastic recoil detection (ERD) analysis is improved in view of depth resolution and the reliability of the measured spectra. Good statistics at even low ion fluences is obtained utilizing a large solid angle of 5 msr at the Munich Q3D magnetic spectrograph and using a 40 MeV 197 Au beam. In this way the elemental depth profiles are not essentially altered during analysis even if distributions with area densities below 1x10 14 atoms/cm 2 are measured. As the energy spread due to the angular acceptance is fully eliminated by ion-optical and numerical corrections, an accurate and reliable apparatus function is derived. It allows to deconvolute the measured spectra using the adaptive kernel method, a maximum entropy concept in the framework of Bayesian probability theory. In addition, the uncertainty of the reconstructed spectra is quantified. The concepts are demonstrated at 13 C depth profiles measured at ultra-thin films of tetrahedral amorphous carbon (ta-C). Depth scales of those profiles are given with an accuracy of 1.4x10 15 atoms/cm 2

A study of images of Projective Angles of pulmonary veins

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wang Jue [Beijing Anzhen Hospital, Beijing (China); Zhaoqi, Zhang [Beijing Anzhen Hospital, Beijing (China)], E-mail: zhaoqi5000@vip.sohu.com; Yu Wei; Miao Cuilian; Yan Zixu; Zhao Yike [Beijing Anzhen Hospital, Beijing (China)

2009-09-15

Aims: In images of magnetic resonance and computed tomography (CT) there are visible angles between pulmonary veins and the coronary, transversal or sagittal section of body. In this study these angles are measured and defined as Projective Angles of pulmonary veins. Several possible influential factors and characters of distribution are studied and analyzed for a better understanding of this imaging anatomic character of pulmonary veins. And it could be the anatomic base of adjusting correctly the angle of the central X-ray of the angiography of pulmonary veins undergoing the catheter ablation of atrial fibrillation (AF). Method: Images of contrast enhanced magnetic resonance angiography (CEMRA) and contrast enhanced computer tomography (CECT) of the left atrium and pulmonary veins of 137 health objects and patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) are processed with the technique of post-processing, and Projective Angles to the coronary and transversal sections are measured and analyzed statistically. Result: Project Angles of pulmonary veins are one of real and steady imaging anatomic characteristics of pulmonary veins. The statistical distribution of variables is relatively concentrated, with a fairly good representation of average value. It is possible to improve the angle of the central X-ray according to the average value in the selective angiography of pulmonary veins undergoing the catheter ablation of AF.

Constructing inverse probability weights for continuous exposures: a comparison of methods.

Science.gov (United States)

Naimi, Ashley I; Moodie, Erica E M; Auger, Nathalie; Kaufman, Jay S

2014-03-01

Inverse probability-weighted marginal structural models with binary exposures are common in epidemiology. Constructing inverse probability weights for a continuous exposure can be complicated by the presence of outliers, and the need to identify a parametric form for the exposure and account for nonconstant exposure variance. We explored the performance of various methods to construct inverse probability weights for continuous exposures using Monte Carlo simulation. We generated two continuous exposures and binary outcomes using data sampled from a large empirical cohort. The first exposure followed a normal distribution with homoscedastic variance. The second exposure followed a contaminated Poisson distribution, with heteroscedastic variance equal to the conditional mean. We assessed six methods to construct inverse probability weights using: a normal distribution, a normal distribution with heteroscedastic variance, a truncated normal distribution with heteroscedastic variance, a gamma distribution, a t distribution (1, 3, and 5 degrees of freedom), and a quantile binning approach (based on 10, 15, and 20 exposure categories). We estimated the marginal odds ratio for a single-unit increase in each simulated exposure in a regression model weighted by the inverse probability weights constructed using each approach, and then computed the bias and mean squared error for each method. For the homoscedastic exposure, the standard normal, gamma, and quantile binning approaches performed best. For the heteroscedastic exposure, the quantile binning, gamma, and heteroscedastic normal approaches performed best. Our results suggest that the quantile binning approach is a simple and versatile way to construct inverse probability weights for continuous exposures.

Finding upper bounds for software failure probabilities - experiments and results

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kristiansen, Monica; Winther, Rune

2005-09-01

This report looks into some aspects of using Bayesian hypothesis testing to find upper bounds for software failure probabilities. In the first part, the report evaluates the Bayesian hypothesis testing approach for finding upper bounds for failure probabilities of single software components. The report shows how different choices of prior probability distributions for a software component's failure probability influence the number of tests required to obtain adequate confidence in a software component. In the evaluation, both the effect of the shape of the prior distribution as well as one's prior confidence in the software component were investigated. In addition, different choices of prior probability distributions are discussed based on their relevance in a software context. In the second part, ideas on how the Bayesian hypothesis testing approach can be extended to assess systems consisting of multiple software components are given. One of the main challenges when assessing systems consisting of multiple software components is to include dependency aspects in the software reliability models. However, different types of failure dependencies between software components must be modelled differently. Identifying different types of failure dependencies are therefore an important condition for choosing a prior probability distribution, which correctly reflects one's prior belief in the probability for software components failing dependently. In this report, software components include both general in-house software components, as well as pre-developed software components (e.g. COTS, SOUP, etc). (Author)

The effects of radiotherapy treatment uncertainties on the delivered dose distribution and tumour control probability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Booth, J.T.; Zavgorodni, S.F.; Royal Adelaide Hospital, SA

2001-01-01

Uncertainty in the precise quantity of radiation dose delivered to tumours in external beam radiotherapy is present due to many factors, and can result in either spatially uniform (Gaussian) or spatially non-uniform dose errors. These dose errors are incorporated into the calculation of tumour control probability (TCP) and produce a distribution of possible TCP values over a population. We also study the effect of inter-patient cell sensitivity heterogeneity on the population distribution of patient TCPs. This study aims to investigate the relative importance of these three uncertainties (spatially uniform dose uncertainty, spatially non-uniform dose uncertainty, and inter-patient cell sensitivity heterogeneity) on the delivered dose and TCP distribution following a typical course of fractionated external beam radiotherapy. The dose distributions used for patient treatments are modelled in one dimension. Geometric positioning uncertainties during and before treatment are considered as shifts of a pre-calculated dose distribution. Following the simulation of a population of patients, distributions of dose across the patient population are used to calculate mean treatment dose, standard deviation in mean treatment dose, mean TCP, standard deviation in TCP, and TCP mode. These parameters are calculated with each of the three uncertainties included separately. The calculations show that the dose errors in the tumour volume are dominated by the spatially uniform component of dose uncertainty. This could be related to machine specific parameters, such as linear accelerator calibration. TCP calculation is affected dramatically by inter-patient variation in the cell sensitivity and to a lesser extent by the spatially uniform dose errors. The positioning errors with the 1.5 cm margins used cause dose uncertainty outside the tumour volume and have a small effect on mean treatment dose (in the tumour volume) and tumour control. Copyright (2001) Australasian College of

Irreversibility and conditional probability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stuart, C.I.J.M.

1989-01-01

The mathematical entropy - unlike physical entropy - is simply a measure of uniformity for probability distributions in general. So understood, conditional entropies have the same logical structure as conditional probabilities. If, as is sometimes supposed, conditional probabilities are time-reversible, then so are conditional entropies and, paradoxically, both then share this symmetry with physical equations of motion. The paradox is, of course that probabilities yield a direction to time both in statistical mechanics and quantum mechanics, while the equations of motion do not. The supposed time-reversibility of both conditionals seems also to involve a form of retrocausality that is related to, but possibly not the same as, that described by Costa de Beaurgard. The retrocausality is paradoxically at odds with the generally presumed irreversibility of the quantum mechanical measurement process. Further paradox emerges if the supposed time-reversibility of the conditionals is linked with the idea that the thermodynamic entropy is the same thing as 'missing information' since this confounds the thermodynamic and mathematical entropies. However, it is shown that irreversibility is a formal consequence of conditional entropies and, hence, of conditional probabilities also. 8 refs. (Author)

RE-EXAMINING SUNSPOT TILT ANGLE TO INCLUDE ANTI-HALE STATISTICS

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

McClintock, B. H. [University of Southern Queensland, Toowoomba, 4350 (Australia); Norton, A. A. [HEPL, Stanford University, Palo Alto, CA 94305 (United States); Li, J., E-mail: u1049686@umail.usq.edu.au, E-mail: aanorton@stanford.edu, E-mail: jli@igpp.ucla.edu [Department of Earth, Planetary, and Space Sciences, University of California at Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA 90095 (United States)

2014-12-20

Sunspot groups and bipolar magnetic regions (BMRs) serve as an observational diagnostic of the solar cycle. We use Debrecen Photohelographic Data (DPD) from 1974-2014 that determined sunspot tilt angles from daily white light observations, and data provided by Li and Ulrich that determined sunspot magnetic tilt angle using Mount Wilson magnetograms from 1974-2012. The magnetograms allowed for BMR tilt angles that were anti-Hale in configuration, so tilt values ranged from 0 to 360° rather than the more common ±90°. We explore the visual representation of magnetic tilt angles on a traditional butterfly diagram by plotting the mean area-weighted latitude of umbral activity in each bipolar sunspot group, including tilt information. The large scatter of tilt angles over the course of a single cycle and hemisphere prevents Joy's law from being visually identified in the tilt-butterfly diagram without further binning. The average latitude of anti-Hale regions does not differ from the average latitude of all regions in both hemispheres. The distribution of anti-Hale sunspot tilt angles are broadly distributed between 0 and 360° with a weak preference for east-west alignment 180° from their expected Joy's law angle. The anti-Hale sunspots display a log-normal size distribution similar to that of all sunspots, indicating no preferred size for anti-Hale sunspots. We report that 8.4% ± 0.8% of all bipolar sunspot regions are misclassified as Hale in traditional catalogs. This percentage is slightly higher for groups within 5° of the equator due to the misalignment of the magnetic and heliographic equators.

RE-EXAMINING SUNSPOT TILT ANGLE TO INCLUDE ANTI-HALE STATISTICS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

McClintock, B. H.; Norton, A. A.; Li, J.

2014-01-01

Sunspot groups and bipolar magnetic regions (BMRs) serve as an observational diagnostic of the solar cycle. We use Debrecen Photohelographic Data (DPD) from 1974-2014 that determined sunspot tilt angles from daily white light observations, and data provided by Li and Ulrich that determined sunspot magnetic tilt angle using Mount Wilson magnetograms from 1974-2012. The magnetograms allowed for BMR tilt angles that were anti-Hale in configuration, so tilt values ranged from 0 to 360° rather than the more common ±90°. We explore the visual representation of magnetic tilt angles on a traditional butterfly diagram by plotting the mean area-weighted latitude of umbral activity in each bipolar sunspot group, including tilt information. The large scatter of tilt angles over the course of a single cycle and hemisphere prevents Joy's law from being visually identified in the tilt-butterfly diagram without further binning. The average latitude of anti-Hale regions does not differ from the average latitude of all regions in both hemispheres. The distribution of anti-Hale sunspot tilt angles are broadly distributed between 0 and 360° with a weak preference for east-west alignment 180° from their expected Joy's law angle. The anti-Hale sunspots display a log-normal size distribution similar to that of all sunspots, indicating no preferred size for anti-Hale sunspots. We report that 8.4% ± 0.8% of all bipolar sunspot regions are misclassified as Hale in traditional catalogs. This percentage is slightly higher for groups within 5° of the equator due to the misalignment of the magnetic and heliographic equators

Introduction to probability and statistics for science, engineering, and finance

CERN Document Server

Rosenkrantz, Walter A

2008-01-01

Data Analysis Orientation The Role and Scope of Statistics in Science and Engineering Types of Data: Examples from Engineering, Public Health, and Finance The Frequency Distribution of a Variable Defined on a Population Quantiles of a Distribution Measures of Location (Central Value) and Variability Covariance, Correlation, and Regression: Computing a Stock's Beta Mathematical Details and Derivations Large Data Sets Probability Theory Orientation Sample Space, Events, Axioms of Probability Theory Mathematical Models of Random Sampling Conditional Probability and Baye

Simulation of beam-splitter made of metamaterials with angle spatial distribution of constitutive parameters based on transformation optics for THz frequency range

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gurvitz, E A; Vozianova, A V; Khodzitsky, M K

2014-01-01

New approach to design beam splitter on basis of the transformation optics using angle constitutive parameters distribution of medium was proposed. The beam splitter was numerically simulated by COMSOL Multiphysics for terahertz frequency range. The numerical simulations were carried out for ideal and reduced constitutive parameters of medium for the case of TM plane wave

Optimum parameters in a model for tumour control probability, including interpatient heterogeneity: evaluation of the log-normal distribution

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Keall, P J; Webb, S

2007-01-01

The heterogeneity of human tumour radiation response is well known. Researchers have used the normal distribution to describe interpatient tumour radiosensitivity. However, many natural phenomena show a log-normal distribution. Log-normal distributions are common when mean values are low, variances are large and values cannot be negative. These conditions apply to radiosensitivity. The aim of this work was to evaluate the log-normal distribution to predict clinical tumour control probability (TCP) data and to compare the results with the homogeneous (δ-function with single α-value) and normal distributions. The clinically derived TCP data for four tumour types-melanoma, breast, squamous cell carcinoma and nodes-were used to fit the TCP models. Three forms of interpatient tumour radiosensitivity were considered: the log-normal, normal and δ-function. The free parameters in the models were the radiosensitivity mean, standard deviation and clonogenic cell density. The evaluation metric was the deviance of the maximum likelihood estimation of the fit of the TCP calculated using the predicted parameters to the clinical data. We conclude that (1) the log-normal and normal distributions of interpatient tumour radiosensitivity heterogeneity more closely describe clinical TCP data than a single radiosensitivity value and (2) the log-normal distribution has some theoretical and practical advantages over the normal distribution. Further work is needed to test these models on higher quality clinical outcome datasets

Classical probabilities for Majorana and Weyl spinors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wetterich, C.

2011-01-01

Highlights: → Map of classical statistical Ising model to fermionic quantum field theory. → Lattice-regularized real Grassmann functional integral for single Weyl spinor. → Emerging complex structure characteristic for quantum physics. → A classical statistical ensemble describes a quantum theory. - Abstract: We construct a map between the quantum field theory of free Weyl or Majorana fermions and the probability distribution of a classical statistical ensemble for Ising spins or discrete bits. More precisely, a Grassmann functional integral based on a real Grassmann algebra specifies the time evolution of the real wave function q τ (t) for the Ising states τ. The time dependent probability distribution of a generalized Ising model obtains as p τ (t)=q τ 2 (t). The functional integral employs a lattice regularization for single Weyl or Majorana spinors. We further introduce the complex structure characteristic for quantum mechanics. Probability distributions of the Ising model which correspond to one or many propagating fermions are discussed explicitly. Expectation values of observables can be computed equivalently in the classical statistical Ising model or in the quantum field theory for fermions.

Characterizing the Lyα forest flux probability distribution function using Legendre polynomials

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cieplak, Agnieszka M.; Slosar, Anže, E-mail: acieplak@bnl.gov, E-mail: anze@bnl.gov [Brookhaven National Laboratory, Bldg 510, Upton, NY, 11973 (United States)

2017-10-01

The Lyman-α forest is a highly non-linear field with considerable information available in the data beyond the power spectrum. The flux probability distribution function (PDF) has been used as a successful probe of small-scale physics. In this paper we argue that measuring coefficients of the Legendre polynomial expansion of the PDF offers several advantages over measuring the binned values as is commonly done. In particular, the n -th Legendre coefficient can be expressed as a linear combination of the first n moments, allowing these coefficients to be measured in the presence of noise and allowing a clear route for marginalisation over mean flux. Moreover, in the presence of noise, our numerical work shows that a finite number of coefficients are well measured with a very sharp transition into noise dominance. This compresses the available information into a small number of well-measured quantities. We find that the amount of recoverable information is a very non-linear function of spectral noise that strongly favors fewer quasars measured at better signal to noise.

Characterizing the Lyα forest flux probability distribution function using Legendre polynomials

Science.gov (United States)

Cieplak, Agnieszka M.; Slosar, Anže

2017-10-01

The Lyman-α forest is a highly non-linear field with considerable information available in the data beyond the power spectrum. The flux probability distribution function (PDF) has been used as a successful probe of small-scale physics. In this paper we argue that measuring coefficients of the Legendre polynomial expansion of the PDF offers several advantages over measuring the binned values as is commonly done. In particular, the n-th Legendre coefficient can be expressed as a linear combination of the first n moments, allowing these coefficients to be measured in the presence of noise and allowing a clear route for marginalisation over mean flux. Moreover, in the presence of noise, our numerical work shows that a finite number of coefficients are well measured with a very sharp transition into noise dominance. This compresses the available information into a small number of well-measured quantities. We find that the amount of recoverable information is a very non-linear function of spectral noise that strongly favors fewer quasars measured at better signal to noise.

The probability distribution of the delay time of a wave packet in strong overlap of resonance levels

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lyuboshitz, V.L.

1982-01-01

The time development of nuclear reactions at a large density of levels is investigated using the theory of overlapping resonances. The analytical expression for the function describing the time delay probability distribution of a wave packet is obtained in the framework of the model of n equi - valent channels. It is shown that a relative fluctuation of the time delay at the stage of the compound nucleus is snall. The possibility is discussed of increasing the duration of nuclear raactions with rising excitation energy

Spectral analysis of growing graphs a quantum probability point of view

CERN Document Server

Obata, Nobuaki

2017-01-01

This book is designed as a concise introduction to the recent achievements on spectral analysis of graphs or networks from the point of view of quantum (or non-commutative) probability theory. The main topics are spectral distributions of the adjacency matrices of finite or infinite graphs and their limit distributions for growing graphs. The main vehicle is quantum probability, an algebraic extension of the traditional probability theory, which provides a new framework for the analysis of adjacency matrices revealing their non-commutative nature. For example, the method of quantum decomposition makes it possible to study spectral distributions by means of interacting Fock spaces or equivalently by orthogonal polynomials. Various concepts of independence in quantum probability and corresponding central limit theorems are used for the asymptotic study of spectral distributions for product graphs. This book is written for researchers, teachers, and students interested in graph spectra, their (asymptotic) spectr...

Crystalline misfit-angle implications for solid sliding

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Manini, Nicola; Braun, O.M.

2011-01-01

For the contact of two finite portions of interacting rigid crystalline surfaces, we compute the pinning energy barrier dependency on the misfit angle and contact area. This simple model allows us to investigate a broad contact-size and angular range, thus obtaining the statistical properties of the energy barriers opposing sliding for a single asperity. These data are used to generate the distribution of static frictional thresholds for the contact of polycrystals, as in dry or even lubricated friction. This distribution is used as the input of a master equation to predict the sliding properties of macroscopic contacts. -- Highlights: → The pinning energy barrier depends on the misfit angle and contact area. → We compute this dependence for a idealized rigid model. → We obtain a distribution of static frictional thresholds. → It is used as input of a master-equation model for macroscopic surfaces in contact. → Overall we predict a transition from stick-slip to smooth sliding.

Design considerations for a backlight with switchable viewing angles

Science.gov (United States)

Fujieda, Ichiro; Takagi, Yoshihiko; Rahadian, Fanny

2006-08-01

Small-sized liquid crystal displays are widely used for mobile applications such as cell phones. Electronic control of a viewing angle range is desired in order to maintain privacy for viewing in public as well as to provide wide viewing angles for solitary viewing. Conventionally, a polymer-dispersed liquid crystal (PDLC) panel is inserted between a backlight and a liquid crystal panel. The PDLC layer either transmits or scatters the light from the backlight, thus providing an electronic control of viewing angles. However, such a display system is obviously thick and expensive. Here, we propose to place an electronically-controlled, light-deflecting device between an LED and a light-guide of a backlight. For example, a liquid crystal lens is investigated for other applications and its focal length is controlled electronically. A liquid crystal phase grating either transmits or diffracts an incoming light depending on whether or not a periodic phase distribution is formed inside its liquid crystal layer. A bias applied to such a device will control the angular distribution of the light propagating inside a light-guide. Output couplers built in the light-guide extract the propagating light to outside. They can be V-shaped grooves, pyramids, or any other structures that can refract, reflect or diffract light. When any of such interactions occur, the output couplers translate the changes in the propagation angles into the angular distribution of the output light. Hence the viewing-angle characteristic can be switched. The designs of the output couplers and the LC devices are important for such a backlight system.

On the Hitting Probability of Max-Stable Processes

OpenAIRE

Hofmann, Martin

2012-01-01

The probability that a max-stable process {\\eta} in C[0, 1] with identical marginal distribution function F hits x \\in R with 0 < F (x) < 1 is the hitting probability of x. We show that the hitting probability is always positive, unless the components of {\\eta} are completely dependent. Moreover, we consider the event that the paths of standard MSP hit some x \\in R twice and we give a sufficient condition for a positive probability of this event.