Analysis of dysphagia risk using the modified dysphagia risk assessment for the community-dwelling elderly

OpenAIRE

Byeon, Haewon

2016-01-01

[Purpose] The elderly are susceptible to dysphagia, and complications can be minimized if high-risk groups are screened in early stages and properly rehabilitated. This study provides basic material for the early detection and prevention of dysphagia by investigating the risks of dysphagia and related factors in community-dwelling elders. [Subjects and Methods] Participants included 325 community-dwelling elderly people aged 65 or older. The modified dysphagia risk assessment for the communit...

Risk-based analysis for prioritization and processing in the Los Alamos National Laboratory 94-1 program

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Boerigter, S.T.; DeMuth, N.S.; Tietjen, G.

1996-10-01

A previous report, open-quotes Analysis of LANL Options for Processing Plutonium Legacy Materials,close quotes LA-UR-95-4301, summarized the development of a risk-based prioritization methodology for the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) Plutonium Facility at Technical Area-55 (TA-55). The methodology described in that report was developed not only to assist processing personnel in prioritizing the remediation of legacy materials but also to evaluate the risk impacts of schedule modifications and changes. Several key activities were undertaken in the development of that methodology. The most notable was that the risk assessments were based on statistically developed data from sampling containers in the vault and evaluating their condition; the data from the vault sampling programs were used as the basis for risk estimates. Also, the time-dependent behavior of the legacy materials was explicitly modeled and included in the risk analysis. The results indicated that significant reductions in program risk can be achieved by proper prioritization of the materials for processing

Research on orbit prediction for solar-based calibration proper satellite

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Xuan; Qi, Wenwen; Xu, Peng

2018-03-01

Utilizing the mathematical model of the orbit mechanics, the orbit prediction is to forecast the space target's orbit information of a certain time based on the orbit of the initial moment. The proper satellite radiometric calibration and calibration orbit prediction process are introduced briefly. On the basis of the research of the calibration space position design method and the radiative transfer model, an orbit prediction method for proper satellite radiometric calibration is proposed to select the appropriate calibration arc for the remote sensor and to predict the orbit information of the proper satellite and the remote sensor. By analyzing the orbit constraint of the proper satellite calibration, the GF-1solar synchronous orbit is chose as the proper satellite orbit in order to simulate the calibration visible durance for different satellites to be calibrated. The results of simulation and analysis provide the basis for the improvement of the radiometric calibration accuracy of the satellite remote sensor, which lays the foundation for the high precision and high frequency radiometric calibration.

Factor Analysis with EM Algorithm Never Gives Improper Solutions when Sample Covariance and Initial Parameter Matrices Are Proper

Science.gov (United States)

Adachi, Kohei

2013-01-01

Rubin and Thayer ("Psychometrika," 47:69-76, 1982) proposed the EM algorithm for exploratory and confirmatory maximum likelihood factor analysis. In this paper, we prove the following fact: the EM algorithm always gives a proper solution with positive unique variances and factor correlations with absolute values that do not exceed one,…

Comparative risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Niehaus, F.

1988-01-01

In this paper, the risks of various energy systems are discussed considering severe accidents analysis, particularly the probabilistic safety analysis, and probabilistic safety criteria, and the applications of these criteria and analysis. The comparative risk analysis has demonstrated that the largest source of risk in every society is from daily small accidents. Nevertheless, we have to be more concerned about severe accidents. The comparative risk analysis of five different energy systems (coal, oil, gas, LWR and STEC (Solar)) for the public has shown that the main sources of risks are coal and oil. The latest comparative risk study of various energy has been conducted in the USA and has revealed that the number of victims from coal is 42 as many than victims from nuclear. A study for severe accidents from hydro-dams in United States has estimated the probability of dam failures at 1 in 10,000 years and the number of victims between 11,000 and 260,000. The average occupational risk from coal is one fatal accident in 1,000 workers/year. The probabilistic safety analysis is a method that can be used to assess nuclear energy risks, and to analyze the severe accidents, and to model all possible accident sequences and consequences. The 'Fault tree' analysis is used to know the probability of failure of the different systems at each point of accident sequences and to calculate the probability of risks. After calculating the probability of failure, the criteria for judging the numerical results have to be developed, that is the quantitative and qualitative goals. To achieve these goals, several systems have been devised by various countries members of AIEA. The probabilistic safety ana-lysis method has been developed by establishing a computer program permit-ting to know different categories of safety related information. 19 tabs. (author)

Access to Heart Transplantation: A Proper Analysis of the Competing Risks of Death and Transplantation Is Required to Optimize Graft Allocation.

Science.gov (United States)

Cantrelle, Christelle; Legeai, Camille; Latouche, Aurélien; Tuppin, Philippe; Jasseron, Carine; Sebbag, Laurent; Bastien, Olivier; Dorent, Richard

2017-08-01

Heart allocation systems are usually urgency-based, offering grafts to candidates at high risk of waitlist mortality. In the context of a revision of the heart allocation rules, we determined observed predictors of 1-year waitlist mortality in France, considering the competing risk of transplantation, to determine which candidate subgroups are favored or disadvantaged by the current allocation system. Patients registered on the French heart waitlist between 2010 and 2013 were included. Cox cause-specific hazards and Fine and Gray subdistribution hazards were used to determine candidate characteristics associated with waitlist mortality and access to transplantation. Of the 2053 candidates, 7 variables were associated with 1-year waitlist mortality by the Fine and Gray method including 4 candidate characteristics related to heart failure severity (hospitalization at listing, serum natriuretic peptide level, systolic pulmonary artery pressure, and glomerular filtration rate) and 3 characteristics not associated with heart failure severity but with lower access to transplantation (blood type, age, and body mass index). Observed waitlist mortality for candidates on mechanical circulatory support was like that of others. The heart allocation system strongly modifies the risk of pretransplant mortality related to heart failure severity. An in-depth competing risk analysis is therefore a more appropriate method to evaluate graft allocation systems. This knowledge should help to prioritize candidates in the context of a limited donor pool.

Foundations of Risk Analysis

CERN Document Server

Aven, Terje

2012-01-01

Foundations of Risk Analysis presents the issues core to risk analysis - understanding what risk means, expressing risk, building risk models, addressing uncertainty, and applying probability models to real problems. The author provides the readers with the knowledge and basic thinking they require to successfully manage risk and uncertainty to support decision making. This updated edition reflects recent developments on risk and uncertainty concepts, representations and treatment. New material in Foundations of Risk Analysis includes:An up to date presentation of how to understand, define and

Probabilistic risk analysis and terrorism risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Ezell, Barry Charles; Bennett, Steven P; von Winterfeldt, Detlof; Sokolowski, John; Collins, Andrew J

2010-04-01

Since the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, and the subsequent establishment of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS), considerable efforts have been made to estimate the risks of terrorism and the cost effectiveness of security policies to reduce these risks. DHS, industry, and the academic risk analysis communities have all invested heavily in the development of tools and approaches that can assist decisionmakers in effectively allocating limited resources across the vast array of potential investments that could mitigate risks from terrorism and other threats to the homeland. Decisionmakers demand models, analyses, and decision support that are useful for this task and based on the state of the art. Since terrorism risk analysis is new, no single method is likely to meet this challenge. In this article we explore a number of existing and potential approaches for terrorism risk analysis, focusing particularly on recent discussions regarding the applicability of probabilistic and decision analytic approaches to bioterrorism risks and the Bioterrorism Risk Assessment methodology used by the DHS and criticized by the National Academies and others.

MATHEMATICAL RISK ANALYSIS: VIA NICHOLAS RISK MODEL AND BAYESIAN ANALYSIS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anass BAYAGA

2010-07-01

Full Text Available The objective of this second part of a two-phased study was to explorethe predictive power of quantitative risk analysis (QRA method andprocess within Higher Education Institution (HEI. The method and process investigated the use impact analysis via Nicholas risk model and Bayesian analysis, with a sample of hundred (100 risk analysts in a historically black South African University in the greater Eastern Cape Province.The first findings supported and confirmed previous literature (KingIII report, 2009: Nicholas and Steyn, 2008: Stoney, 2007: COSA, 2004 that there was a direct relationship between risk factor, its likelihood and impact, certiris paribus. The second finding in relation to either controlling the likelihood or the impact of occurrence of risk (Nicholas risk model was that to have a brighter risk reward, it was important to control the likelihood ofoccurrence of risks as compared with its impact so to have a direct effect on entire University. On the Bayesian analysis, thus third finding, the impact of risk should be predicted along three aspects. These aspects included the human impact (decisions made, the property impact (students and infrastructural based and the business impact. Lastly, the study revealed that although in most business cases, where as business cycles considerably vary dependingon the industry and or the institution, this study revealed that, most impacts in HEI (University was within the period of one academic.The recommendation was that application of quantitative risk analysisshould be related to current legislative framework that affects HEI.

Larmor time and proper time

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kudaka, Shoju [Department of Physics, University of the Ryukyus, Okinawa 903-0129 (Japan); Matsumoto, Shuichi, E-mail: shuichi@edu.u-ryukyu.ac.jp [Department of Mathematics, University of the Ryukyus, Okinawa 903-0129 (Japan)

2012-10-01

The idea of a Larmor clock is reexamined in the relativistic regime. We propose a concept of proper time for quantum theoretical particles. The Larmor clock can measure, under some relevant conditions, the proper time that passes while the particle stays in a space region. Our approach to Larmor clock is different than those of other researchers in the following two aspects: our concept of Larmor clock does not distinguish whether the particle is transmitted or reflected at the end of its stay, and pointer of our Larmor clock is not the spin but the total angular momentum. -- Highlights: ► The idea of a Larmor clock is reexamined in the relativistic regime. ► We propose a concept of proper time for quantum theoretical particles. ► The Larmor clock measures the passage of this quantum theoretical proper time.

Proper generalized decompositions an introduction to computer implementation with Matlab

CERN Document Server

Cueto, Elías; Alfaro, Icíar

2016-01-01

This book is intended to help researchers overcome the entrance barrier to Proper Generalized Decomposition (PGD), by providing a valuable tool to begin the programming task. Detailed Matlab Codes are included for every chapter in the book, in which the theory previously described is translated into practice. Examples include parametric problems, non-linear model order reduction and real-time simulation, among others. Proper Generalized Decomposition (PGD) is a method for numerical simulation in many fields of applied science and engineering. As a generalization of Proper Orthogonal Decomposition or Principal Component Analysis to an arbitrary number of dimensions, PGD is able to provide the analyst with very accurate solutions for problems defined in high dimensional spaces, parametric problems and even real-time simulation. .

7 CFR 29.112 - Proper light.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 2 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Proper light. 29.112 Section 29.112 Agriculture... INSPECTION Regulations Inspectors, Samplers, and Weighers § 29.112 Proper light. Tobacco shall not be inspected or sampled for the purposes of the Act except when displayed in proper light for correct...

Proper Acknowledgment?

Science.gov (United States)

East, Julianne

2005-01-01

The concern in Australian universities about the prevalence of plagiarism has led to the development of policies about academic integrity and in turn focused attention on the need to inform students about how to avoid plagiarism and how to properly acknowledge. Teaching students how to avoid plagiarism can appear to be straightforward if based on…

Is risk analysis scientific?

Science.gov (United States)

Hansson, Sven Ove; Aven, Terje

2014-07-01

This article discusses to what extent risk analysis is scientific in view of a set of commonly used definitions and criteria. We consider scientific knowledge to be characterized by its subject matter, its success in developing the best available knowledge in its fields of study, and the epistemic norms and values that guide scientific investigations. We proceed to assess the field of risk analysis according to these criteria. For this purpose, we use a model for risk analysis in which science is used as a base for decision making on risks, which covers the five elements evidence, knowledge base, broad risk evaluation, managerial review and judgment, and the decision; and that relates these elements to the domains experts and decisionmakers, and to the domains fact-based or value-based. We conclude that risk analysis is a scientific field of study, when understood as consisting primarily of (i) knowledge about risk-related phenomena, processes, events, etc., and (ii) concepts, theories, frameworks, approaches, principles, methods and models to understand, assess, characterize, communicate, and manage risk, in general and for specific applications (the instrumental part). © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

Probabilistic cost-benefit analysis of disaster risk management in a development context.

Science.gov (United States)

Kull, Daniel; Mechler, Reinhard; Hochrainer-Stigler, Stefan

2013-07-01

Limited studies have shown that disaster risk management (DRM) can be cost-efficient in a development context. Cost-benefit analysis (CBA) is an evaluation tool to analyse economic efficiency. This research introduces quantitative, stochastic CBA frameworks and applies them in case studies of flood and drought risk reduction in India and Pakistan, while also incorporating projected climate change impacts. DRM interventions are shown to be economically efficient, with integrated approaches more cost-effective and robust than singular interventions. The paper highlights that CBA can be a useful tool if certain issues are considered properly, including: complexities in estimating risk; data dependency of results; negative effects of interventions; and distributional aspects. The design and process of CBA must take into account specific objectives, available information, resources, and the perceptions and needs of stakeholders as transparently as possible. Intervention design and uncertainties should be qualified through dialogue, indicating that process is as important as numerical results. © 2013 The Author(s). Journal compilation © Overseas Development Institute, 2013.

Proper motions and distances of quasars

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Varshni, Y.P.

1982-01-01

The author's theory that quasars are stars raises the question of their proper motions. From the evidence presented in a previous paper, it is hypothesised that planetary nuclei and quasars are related objects and that their distributions in the galaxy are not very different. Proper motions of 30 quasars, calculated from existing measurements, are discussed. It is shown that three of these, namely PHL 1033, LB 8956 and LB 8991, have proper motions comparable to the largest proper motion known amongst the planetary nuclei. From this it is estimated that these three quasars lie within a few hundred parsecs from the sun. The evidence presented in a previous paper and the present one clearly supports the theory that quasars are stars. The possibility of using the interstellar K and H lines as distance indicators of quasars is discussed and the available evidence summarised. The desirability of determining more accurate values of the proper motions of quasars is emphasised. (Auth.)

Environmental modeling and health risk analysis (ACTS/RISK)

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Aral, M. M

2010-01-01

... presents a review of the topics of exposure and health risk analysis. The Analytical Contaminant Transport Analysis System (ACTS) and Health RISK Analysis (RISK) software tools are an integral part of the book and provide computational platforms for all the models discussed herein. The most recent versions of these two softwa...

ProRisk : risk analysis instrument : developed for William properties

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Doorn, W.H.W.; Egeberg, Ingrid; Hendrickx, Kristoff; Kahramaner, Y.; Masseur, B.; Waijers, Koen; Weglicka, K.A.

2005-01-01

This report presents a Risk Analysis Instrument developed for William Properties. Based on the analysis, it appears that the practice of Risk Analysis exists within the organization, yet rather implicit. The Risk Analysis Instrument comes with a package of four components: an activity diagram, a

Observations on risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thompson, W.A. Jr.

1979-11-01

This paper briefly describes WASH 1400 and the Lewis report. It attempts to define basic concepts such as risk and risk analysis, common mode failure, and rare event. Several probabilistic models which go beyond the WASH 1400 methodology are introduced; the common characteristic of these models is that they recognize explicitly that risk analysis is time dependent whereas WASH 1400 takes a per demand failure rate approach which obscures the important fact that accidents are time related. Further, the presentation of a realistic risk analysis should recognize that there are various risks which compete with one another for the lives of the individuals at risk. A way of doing this is suggested

GIS-based spatial statistical analysis of risk areas for liver flukes in Surin Province of Thailand.

Science.gov (United States)

Rujirakul, Ratana; Ueng-arporn, Naporn; Kaewpitoon, Soraya; Loyd, Ryan J; Kaewthani, Sarochinee; Kaewpitoon, Natthawut

2015-01-01

It is urgently necessary to be aware of the distribution and risk areas of liver fluke, Opisthorchis viverrini, for proper allocation of prevention and control measures. This study aimed to investigate the human behavior, and environmental factors influencing the distribution in Surin Province of Thailand, and to build a model using stepwise multiple regression analysis with a geographic information system (GIS) on environment and climate data. The relationship between the human behavior, attitudes (R Square=0.878, and, Adjust R Square=0.849. By GIS analysis, we found Si Narong, Sangkha, Phanom Dong Rak, Mueang Surin, Non Narai, Samrong Thap, Chumphon Buri, and Rattanaburi to have the highest distributions in Surin province. In conclusion, the combination of GIS and statistical analysis can help simulate the spatial distribution and risk areas of liver fluke, and thus may be an important tool for future planning of prevention and control measures.

Broad-scale recombination patterns underlying proper disjunction in humans.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Adi Fledel-Alon

2009-09-01

Full Text Available Although recombination is essential to the successful completion of human meiosis, it remains unclear how tightly the process is regulated and over what scale. To assess the nature and stringency of constraints on human recombination, we examined crossover patterns in transmissions to viable, non-trisomic offspring, using dense genotyping data collected in a large set of pedigrees. Our analysis supports a requirement for one chiasma per chromosome rather than per arm to ensure proper disjunction, with additional chiasmata occurring in proportion to physical length. The requirement is not absolute, however, as chromosome 21 seems to be frequently transmitted properly in the absence of a chiasma in females, a finding that raises the possibility of a back-up mechanism aiding in its correct segregation. We also found a set of double crossovers in surprisingly close proximity, as expected from a second pathway that is not subject to crossover interference. These findings point to multiple mechanisms that shape the distribution of crossovers, influencing proper disjunction in humans.

Analysis of dysphagia risk using the modified dysphagia risk assessment for the community-dwelling elderly.

Science.gov (United States)

Byeon, Haewon

2016-09-01

[Purpose] The elderly are susceptible to dysphagia, and complications can be minimized if high-risk groups are screened in early stages and properly rehabilitated. This study provides basic material for the early detection and prevention of dysphagia by investigating the risks of dysphagia and related factors in community-dwelling elders. [Subjects and Methods] Participants included 325 community-dwelling elderly people aged 65 or older. The modified dysphagia risk assessment for the community-dwelling elderly was used to assess dysphagia risk. [Results] Approximately 52.6% (n=171) of participants belonged to the high-risk group for dysphagia. After adjusting for confounding variables, people aged 75+, who used dentures, and who needed partial help in daily living had a significantly higher risk of dysphagia. [Conclusion] It is necessary to develop guidelines for dysphagia for early detection and rehabilitation.

PropeR revisited

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van der Linden, Helma; Talmon, Jan; Tange, Huibert; Grimson, Jane; Hasman, Arie

2005-01-01

INTRODUCTION: The PropeR EHR system (PropeRWeb) is a multidisciplinary electronic health record (EHR) system for multidisciplinary use in extramural patient care for stroke patients. DESIGN: The system is built using existing open source components and is based on open standards. It is implemented

Unsharpness-risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Preyssl, C.

1986-01-01

Safety analysis provides the only tool for evaluation and quantification of rare or hypothetical events leading to system failure. So far probability theory has been used for the fault- and event-tree methodology. The phenomenon of uncertainties constitutes an important aspect in risk analysis. Uncertainties can be classified as originating from 'randomness' or 'fuzziness'. Probability theory addresses randomness only. The use of 'fuzzy set theory' makes it possible to include both types of uncertainty in the mathematical model of risk analysis. Thus the 'fuzzy fault tree' is expressed in 'possibilistic' terms implying a range of simplifications and improvements. 'Human failure' and 'conditionality' can be treated correctly. Only minimum-maximum relations are used to combine the possibility distributions of events. Various event-classifications facilitate the interpretation of the results. The method is demonstrated by application to a TRIGA-research reactor. Uncertainty as an implicit part of 'fuzzy risk' can be quantified explicitly using an 'uncertainty measure'. Based on this the 'degree of relative compliance' with a quantizative safety goal can be defined for a particular risk. The introduction of 'weighting functionals' guarantees the consideration of the importances attached to different parts of the risk exceeding or complying with the standard. The comparison of two reference systems is demonstrated in a case study. It is concluded that any application of the 'fuzzy risk analysis' has to be free of any hypostatization when reducing subjective to objective information. (Author)

Properly colored connectivity of graphs

CERN Document Server

Li, Xueliang; Qin, Zhongmei

2018-01-01

A comprehensive survey of proper connection of graphs is discussed in this book with real world applications in computer science and network security. Beginning with a brief introduction, comprising relevant definitions and preliminary results, this book moves on to consider a variety of properties of graphs that imply bounds on the proper connection number. Detailed proofs of significant advancements toward open problems and conjectures are presented with complete references. Researchers and graduate students with an interest in graph connectivity and colorings will find this book useful as it builds upon fundamental definitions towards modern innovations, strategies, and techniques. The detailed presentation lends to use as an introduction to proper connection of graphs for new and advanced researchers, a solid book for a graduate level topics course, or as a reference for those interested in expanding and further developing research in the area.

RAMS (Risk Analysis - Modular System) methodology

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Stenner, R.D.; Strenge, D.L.; Buck, J.W. [and others

1996-10-01

The Risk Analysis - Modular System (RAMS) was developed to serve as a broad scope risk analysis tool for the Risk Assessment of the Hanford Mission (RAHM) studies. The RAHM element provides risk analysis support for Hanford Strategic Analysis and Mission Planning activities. The RAHM also provides risk analysis support for the Hanford 10-Year Plan development activities. The RAMS tool draws from a collection of specifically designed databases and modular risk analysis methodologies and models. RAMS is a flexible modular system that can be focused on targeted risk analysis needs. It is specifically designed to address risks associated with overall strategy, technical alternative, and `what if` questions regarding the Hanford cleanup mission. RAMS is set up to address both near-term and long-term risk issues. Consistency is very important for any comparative risk analysis, and RAMS is designed to efficiently and consistently compare risks and produce risk reduction estimates. There is a wide range of output information that can be generated by RAMS. These outputs can be detailed by individual contaminants, waste forms, transport pathways, exposure scenarios, individuals, populations, etc. However, they can also be in rolled-up form to support high-level strategy decisions.

Analysis of the Hazard, Vulnerability, and Exposure to the Risk of Flooding (Alba de Yeltes, Salamanca, Spain

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sergio Veleda

2017-02-01

Full Text Available The present work has developed a method using GIS technology to evaluate the danger, vulnerability, and exposure to the risk of flooding in the Alba de Yeltes area (Salamanca, Spain. It is a non-structural measure for the prevention and mitigation of the risk of extraordinary flooding. After completing a full analysis of the physical environment (climate, geology, geomorphology, hydrology, hydrogeology, and land use, hydrological-hydraulic modeling was carried out using the GeoHecRas river analysis software. The results obtained from the analysis and the models have generated a danger map that facilitates the efficient evaluation of the spatial distribution of the different severity parameters (depth of the watersheet, current flow rate, and flood-prone areas. Also, map algebra and the databases associated with GIS tools, together with the vulnerability and exposure cartography, have allowed the risk to be analyzed in an integrate manner and the production of an environmental diagnostic map. The results of this study propose that there are inhabited areas close to the Yeltes-Morasverdes riverbed that have a high risk of flooding, indicating the need for proper land planning and the implementation of a series of measures that will help to reduce the risk of flooding and its impact.

New challenges on uncertainty propagation assessment of flood risk analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Martins, Luciano; Aroca-Jiménez, Estefanía; Bodoque, José M.; Díez-Herrero, Andrés

2016-04-01

Natural hazards, such as floods, cause considerable damage to the human life, material and functional assets every year and around the World. Risk assessment procedures has associated a set of uncertainties, mainly of two types: natural, derived from stochastic character inherent in the flood process dynamics; and epistemic, that are associated with lack of knowledge or the bad procedures employed in the study of these processes. There are abundant scientific and technical literature on uncertainties estimation in each step of flood risk analysis (e.g. rainfall estimates, hydraulic modelling variables); but very few experience on the propagation of the uncertainties along the flood risk assessment. Therefore, epistemic uncertainties are the main goal of this work, in particular,understand the extension of the propagation of uncertainties throughout the process, starting with inundability studies until risk analysis, and how far does vary a proper analysis of the risk of flooding. These methodologies, such as Polynomial Chaos Theory (PCT), Method of Moments or Monte Carlo, are used to evaluate different sources of error, such as data records (precipitation gauges, flow gauges...), hydrologic and hydraulic modelling (inundation estimation), socio-demographic data (damage estimation) to evaluate the uncertainties propagation (UP) considered in design flood risk estimation both, in numerical and cartographic expression. In order to consider the total uncertainty and understand what factors are contributed most to the final uncertainty, we used the method of Polynomial Chaos Theory (PCT). It represents an interesting way to handle to inclusion of uncertainty in the modelling and simulation process. PCT allows for the development of a probabilistic model of the system in a deterministic setting. This is done by using random variables and polynomials to handle the effects of uncertainty. Method application results have a better robustness than traditional analysis

Risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Baron, J.H.; Nunez McLeod, J.; Rivera, S.S.

1997-01-01

This book contains a selection of research works performed in the CEDIAC Institute (Cuyo National University) in the area of Risk Analysis, with specific orientations to the subjects of uncertainty and sensitivity studies, software reliability, severe accident modeling, etc. This volume presents important material for all those researches who want to have an insight in the risk analysis field, as a tool to solution several problems frequently found in the engineering and applied sciences field, as well as for the academic teachers who want to keep up to date, including the new developments and improvements continuously arising in this field [es

Proper motion survey for solar nearby stars

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Goldman, Bertrand

2001-01-01

For its microlensing observations EROS 2 built one of the largest CCD mosaic opera ting since 1996. This instrument allowed us to survey a large area of the sky, to look for faint, cool compact objects in the Solar neighborhood that may contribute to the Dark Matter revealed by flat rotation curves of spiral galaxies and the Milky Way. We imaged over 400 square degrees, at least three times over four years, with a single, stable instrument. The aim of this work is the reduction, the analysis and the detection of high proper motion objects that would look like those expected in a dark halo. We selected and analyzed thousands of images taken in two bands, visible and near-infrared, and obtained a catalogue of several thousand stars with proper motion typically higher than 80 milli-arc-seconds per year. None of these candidates displays the expected properties of the halo objects: very high proper motion and faintness. The second part of our work was to put constraints on the contributions of white dwarfs and brown dwarfs ta the halo. To do that, we simulated our data set and estimated our sensitivity to halo objects. We compared our results about moderately high proper motion stars with existing Galactic models, and confirmed the robustness of these models. We deduced a upper limit ta the contribution of M_v = 17.5 white dwarfs to the standard halo of 10% (at the 95% confidence level), or 5% of a 14 Gyr old halo, and to the contribution of brown dwarfs of 7% (95% C.L.). Finally, among our candidates, several interesting objects, that do not belong to the halo but are among the coolest and faintest known, have been discovered. Systematic search for faint, nearby objects thus lead us to study disk L dwarfs, as well as old white dwarfs of the disk. (author) [fr

A background risk analysis. Vol. 1

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Taylor, J.R.

1979-01-01

This 4-volumes report gives a background of ideas, principles, and examples which might be of use in developing practical methods for risk analysis. Some of the risk analysis techniques, described are somewhat experimental. The report is written in an introductory style, but where some point needs further justification or evaluation, this is given in the form of a chapter appendix. In this way, it is hoped that the report can serve two purposes, - as a basis for starting risk analysis work and as a basis for discussing effectiveness of risk analysis procedures. The report should be seen as a preliminary stage, prior to a program of industrial trials of risk analysis methods. Vol. 1 contains a short history of risk analysis, and chapters on risk, failures, errors and accidents, and general procedures for risk analysis. (BP)

International Conference on Risk Analysis

CERN Document Server

Oliveira, Teresa; Rigas, Alexandros; Gulati, Sneh

2015-01-01

This book covers the latest results in the field of risk analysis. Presented topics include probabilistic models in cancer research, models and methods in longevity, epidemiology of cancer risk, engineering reliability and economical risk problems. The contributions of this volume originate from the 5th International Conference on Risk Analysis (ICRA 5). The conference brought together researchers and practitioners working in the field of risk analysis in order to present new theoretical and computational methods with applications in biology, environmental sciences, public health, economics and finance.

Landslide risk analysis: a multi-disciplinary methodological approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. Sterlacchini

2007-11-01

Full Text Available This study describes an analysis carried out within the European community project "ALARM" (Assessment of Landslide Risk and Mitigation in Mountain Areas, 2004 on landslide risk assessment in the municipality of Corvara in Badia, Italy. This mountainous area, located in the central Dolomites (Italian Alps, poses a significant landslide hazard to several man-made and natural objects. Three parameters for determining risk were analysed as an aid to preparedness and mitigation planning: event occurrence probability, elements at risk, and the vulnerability of these elements. Initially, a landslide hazard scenario was defined; this step was followed by the identification of the potential vulnerable elements, by the estimation of the expected physical effects, due to the occurrence of a damaging phenomenon, and by the analysis of social and economic features of the area. Finally, a potential risk scenario was defined, where the relationships between the event, its physical effects, and its economic consequences were investigated. People and public administrators with training and experience in local landsliding and slope processes were involved in each step of the analysis.

A "cause-effect" correlation was applied, derived from the "dose-response" equation initially used in the biological sciences and then adapted by economists for the assessment of environmental risks. The relationship was analysed from a physical point of view and the cause (the natural event was correlated to the physical effects, i.e. the aesthetic, functional, and structural damage. An economic evaluation of direct and indirect damage was carried out considering the assets in the affected area (i.e., tourist flows, goods, transport and the effect on other social and economic activities. This study shows the importance of indirect damage, which is as significant as direct damage. The total amount of direct damage was estimated in 8 913 000 €; on the contrary, indirect

Landslide risk analysis: a multi-disciplinary methodological approach

Science.gov (United States)

Sterlacchini, S.; Frigerio, S.; Giacomelli, P.; Brambilla, M.

2007-11-01

This study describes an analysis carried out within the European community project "ALARM" (Assessment of Landslide Risk and Mitigation in Mountain Areas, 2004) on landslide risk assessment in the municipality of Corvara in Badia, Italy. This mountainous area, located in the central Dolomites (Italian Alps), poses a significant landslide hazard to several man-made and natural objects. Three parameters for determining risk were analysed as an aid to preparedness and mitigation planning: event occurrence probability, elements at risk, and the vulnerability of these elements. Initially, a landslide hazard scenario was defined; this step was followed by the identification of the potential vulnerable elements, by the estimation of the expected physical effects, due to the occurrence of a damaging phenomenon, and by the analysis of social and economic features of the area. Finally, a potential risk scenario was defined, where the relationships between the event, its physical effects, and its economic consequences were investigated. People and public administrators with training and experience in local landsliding and slope processes were involved in each step of the analysis. A "cause-effect" correlation was applied, derived from the "dose-response" equation initially used in the biological sciences and then adapted by economists for the assessment of environmental risks. The relationship was analysed from a physical point of view and the cause (the natural event) was correlated to the physical effects, i.e. the aesthetic, functional, and structural damage. An economic evaluation of direct and indirect damage was carried out considering the assets in the affected area (i.e., tourist flows, goods, transport and the effect on other social and economic activities). This study shows the importance of indirect damage, which is as significant as direct damage. The total amount of direct damage was estimated in 8 913 000 €; on the contrary, indirect damage ranged considerably

Investigating differences between proper and common nouns using novel word learning

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anastasiya Romanova

2014-04-01

Full Text Available Empirical studies have shown higher rates of tip-of-the-tongue states for proper nouns, in comparison to common nouns, in non-brain-damaged speakers (e.g., Valentine & Moore, 1995, and higher retrieval failure rates for proper nouns relative to common nouns in people with aphasia (e.g., Semenza, 2009. Some authors suggest the source of these differences lies in logical properties (e.g., Semenza, 2009. That is, common nouns refer to a category of beings or objects that share certain semantic properties, while proper nouns designate specific individual beings or objects with unique features. Other authors attribute the distinction in processing to a number of statistical properties that differ across common and proper nouns (Kay, Hanley, & Miles, 2001. The aims of the present study were: 1 to dissociate the effects of logical and statistical properties by using novel words with equal statistical properties; 2 to determine whether people with aphasia show disproportionate impairments in learning proper nouns relative to common nouns, compared to aged-matched subjects. Methods We tested young (n=16 and elderly (n=14 adult non-brain-damaged participants and people with aphasia (n=2. Items-to-be-learnt were given as representatives of an unknown species (n=10 in the common noun condition, or as individual creatures (n=10 in the proper noun condition. The experiment consisted of 5 sessions. Each session included a learning phase and a test phase with naming and word-picture verification tasks. Results and Discussion Preliminary analysis showed learning of both common and proper nouns for both younger (F(4=140.68, p<.01 and elderly (F(4=34.87, p<.01 non-brain-damaged participants, with learning being significantly better for the younger group (F(4=6.5, p<.01. Contrary to expectations, performance on proper nouns was better than that for common nouns for both young and elderly subjects (F(1=6.47, p=.02 and F(1=9.75, p<.01, respectively, possibly due to

Mapping Risks of Indonesian Tuna Supply Chain

Science.gov (United States)

Karningsih, P. D.; Anggrahini, D.; Kurniati, N.; Suef, M.; Fachrur, A. R.; Syahroni, N.

2018-04-01

Due to its high economic value and is produced by many countries, Tuna is considered as one of the world’s popular fish. Demand for Tuna species are very high and it usually sells in three form: fresh, frozen or canned. Competition in Tuna trading is challengin with the potential risk of price and supply fluctuations. With recent focus of Indonesia government that see the future of Indonesia civilization depend on the oceans and as the three biggest Tuna producing country, Ministry of Marine Affairs and Fisheries should ensure sustainability and competitiveness of Indonesian tuna. Therefore, there is a great need to develop a proper and effective strategy to manage potential risks in Indonesian Tuna supply chain. This paper is aimed at identifying and mapping potential Tuna supply chain risks and its interrelationships that would assist government in determining proper strategies to manage Indonesian Tuna. A framework for identifying Tuna supply chain risks is proposed. Generic risk structure of Supply Chain Risk Identification System is adopted and modified to match with particular object, which is Indonesian Tuna. The proposed model consists of hierarchical and causal structure that encompass potential risks of Tuna supply chain operations from fishing, trading, processing and distribution. The causal structure consist of risk events and its risk agents which is the cause of risk events. To ensure the root cause of risk events are identified properly, five why’s analysis is utilized to obtain risk agents. This proposed model also captures risk interrelationship between internal and external environment of Tuna supply chain. Preliminary result of this study identifies 15 risk events and 13 risk factors on fishing and trading operations and maps their interrelationships.

Source contribution and risk assessment of airborne toxic metals by neutron activation analysis in Taejeon industrial complex area - Concentration analysis and health risk assessment of airborne toxic metals in Taejeon 1,2 industrial Complex

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lee, J. H.; Jang, M. S.; Nam, B. H.; Yun, M. J. [Chungnam National Univ., Taejeon (Korea)

2000-04-01

The study centers on one-year continual concentration analysis using ICP-MS and on health risk assessment of 15 airborne toxic metals in Taejeon 1,2 industrial complex. About 1-year arithmetic mean of human carcinogen, arsenic, hexavalent chromium and nickel subsulfide is 6.05, 2.40 and 2.81 ng/m{sup 3} while the mean of probable human carcinogen, beryllium, cadmium and lead is 0.06, 3.92, 145.99 ng/m{sup 3}, respectively. And the long-term arithmetic mean concentration of non-carcinogenic metal, manganese is 44.60 ng/m{sup 3}. The point risk estimate for the inhalation of carcinogenic metals is 7.0 X10{sup -5}, which is higher than a risk standard of 10{sup -5}. The risk from human carcinogens is 6.2X10{sup -5}, while that from probable human carcinogens is 8.0X10{sup -6}, respectively. About 86 % of the cancer risk is due to the inhalation of human carcinogens, arsenic and hexavalent chromium. Thus, it is necessary to properly manage both arsenic and hexavalent chromium risk in Taejeon 1,2 industrial complex. 37 refs., 13 figs., 9 tabs. (Author)

Risk analysis: opening the process

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hubert, Ph.; Mays, C.

1998-01-01

This conference on risk analysis took place in Paris, 11-14 october 1999. Over 200 paper where presented in the seven following sessions: perception; environment and health; persuasive risks; objects and products; personal and collective involvement; assessment and valuation; management. A rational approach to risk analysis has been developed in the three last decades. Techniques for risk assessment have been thoroughly enhanced, risk management approaches have been developed, decision making processes have been clarified, the social dimensions of risk perception and management have been investigated. Nevertheless this construction is being challenged by recent events which reveal how deficits in stakeholder involvement, openness and democratic procedures can undermine risk management actions. Indeed, the global process most components of risk analysis may be radically called into question. Food safety has lately been a prominent issue, but now debates appear, or old debates are revisited in the domains of public health, consumer products safety, waste management, environmental risks, nuclear installations, automobile safety and pollution. To meet the growing pressures for efficiency, openness, accountability, and multi-partner communication in risk analysis, institutional changes are underway in many European countries. However, the need for stakeholders to develop better insight into the process may lead to an evolution of all the components of risks analysis, even in its most (technical' steps. For stakeholders of different professional background, political projects, and responsibilities, risk identification procedures must be rendered understandable, quantitative risk assessment must be intelligible and accommodated in action proposals, ranging from countermeasures to educational programs to insurance mechanisms. Management formats must be open to local and political input and other types of operational feedback. (authors)

Adversarial risk analysis

CERN Document Server

Banks, David L; Rios Insua, David

2015-01-01

Flexible Models to Analyze Opponent Behavior A relatively new area of research, adversarial risk analysis (ARA) informs decision making when there are intelligent opponents and uncertain outcomes. Adversarial Risk Analysis develops methods for allocating defensive or offensive resources against intelligent adversaries. Many examples throughout illustrate the application of the ARA approach to a variety of games and strategic situations. The book shows decision makers how to build Bayesian models for the strategic calculation of their opponents, enabling decision makers to maximize their expected utility or minimize their expected loss. This new approach to risk analysis asserts that analysts should use Bayesian thinking to describe their beliefs about an opponent's goals, resources, optimism, and type of strategic calculation, such as minimax and level-k thinking. Within that framework, analysts then solve the problem from the perspective of the opponent while placing subjective probability distributions on a...

Risk Management in Information Technology Project: An Empirical Study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kornelius Irfandhi

2016-09-01

Full Text Available The companies are facing some risks due to changes in a dynamic environment. If risks are not managed properly, it will have some negative impacts on the companies at the present and the future. One important function of the Information Technology (IT governance is risk management. Risk management in IT project aims to provide a safe environment for IT projects undertaken. Risk management becomes an important process for the success of IT projects. This article discussed the risk of IT project and whether there was a relationship between risk management and the success of the project. The method used was performing a literature review of several scientific articles which published between 2010 and 2014. The results of this study are the presence of risk management and risk manager influence the success of the project. Risk analysis and risk monitoring and control also have a relationship with the subjective performance of IT projects. If risk management is applied properly, the chance of the success of the projects undertaken can be increased. 

Limited-memory adaptive snapshot selection for proper orthogonal decomposition

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Oxberry, Geoffrey M. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Kostova-Vassilevska, Tanya [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Arrighi, Bill [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Chand, Kyle [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

2015-04-02

Reduced order models are useful for accelerating simulations in many-query contexts, such as optimization, uncertainty quantification, and sensitivity analysis. However, offline training of reduced order models can have prohibitively expensive memory and floating-point operation costs in high-performance computing applications, where memory per core is limited. To overcome this limitation for proper orthogonal decomposition, we propose a novel adaptive selection method for snapshots in time that limits offline training costs by selecting snapshots according an error control mechanism similar to that found in adaptive time-stepping ordinary differential equation solvers. The error estimator used in this work is related to theory bounding the approximation error in time of proper orthogonal decomposition-based reduced order models, and memory usage is minimized by computing the singular value decomposition using a single-pass incremental algorithm. Results for a viscous Burgers’ test problem demonstrate convergence in the limit as the algorithm error tolerances go to zero; in this limit, the full order model is recovered to within discretization error. The resulting method can be used on supercomputers to generate proper orthogonal decomposition-based reduced order models, or as a subroutine within hyperreduction algorithms that require taking snapshots in time, or within greedy algorithms for sampling parameter space.

[Risk factors for anorexia in children].

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Wei-Xiao; Lang, Jun-Feng; Zhang, Qin-Feng

2016-11-01

To investigate the risk factors for anorexia in children, and to reduce the prevalence of anorexia in children. A questionnaire survey and a case-control study were used to collect the general information of 150 children with anorexia (case group) and 150 normal children (control group). Univariate analysis and multivariate logistic stepwise regression analysis were performed to identify the risk factors for anorexia in children. The results of the univariate analysis showed significant differences between the case and control groups in the age in months when supplementary food were added, feeding pattern, whether they liked meat, vegetables and salty food, whether they often took snacks and beverages, whether they liked to play while eating, and whether their parents asked them to eat food on time (Panorexia in children. Liking of meat (OR=0.093) and vegetables (OR=0.272) and eating on time required by parents (OR=0.079) were protective factors against anorexia in children. Timely addition of supplementary food, a proper diet, and development of children's proper eating and living habits can reduce the incidence of anorexia in children.

Business model risk analysis: predicting the probability of business network profitability

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Johnson, Pontus; Iacob, Maria Eugenia; Valja, Margus; van Sinderen, Marten J.; Magnusson, Christer; Ladhe, Tobias; van Sinderen, Marten J.; Oude Luttighuis, P.H.W.M.; Folmer, Erwin Johan Albert; Bosems, S.

In the design phase of business collaboration, it is desirable to be able to predict the profitability of the business-to-be. Therefore, techniques to assess qualities such as costs, revenues, risks, and profitability have been previously proposed. However, they do not allow the modeler to properly

Proper joint analysis of summary association statistics requires the adjustment of heterogeneity in SNP coverage pattern.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Han; Wheeler, William; Song, Lei; Yu, Kai

2017-07-07

As meta-analysis results published by consortia of genome-wide association studies (GWASs) become increasingly available, many association summary statistics-based multi-locus tests have been developed to jointly evaluate multiple single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) to reveal novel genetic architectures of various complex traits. The validity of these approaches relies on the accurate estimate of z-score correlations at considered SNPs, which in turn requires knowledge on the set of SNPs assessed by each study participating in the meta-analysis. However, this exact SNP coverage information is usually unavailable from the meta-analysis results published by GWAS consortia. In the absence of the coverage information, researchers typically estimate the z-score correlations by making oversimplified coverage assumptions. We show through real studies that such a practice can generate highly inflated type I errors, and we demonstrate the proper way to incorporate correct coverage information into multi-locus analyses. We advocate that consortia should make SNP coverage information available when posting their meta-analysis results, and that investigators who develop analytic tools for joint analyses based on summary data should pay attention to the variation in SNP coverage and adjust for it appropriately. Published by Oxford University Press 2017. This work is written by US Government employees and is in the public domain in the US.

Reduced verbal fluency for proper names in nondemented patients with Parkinson's disease: a quantitative and qualitative analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Fine, Eric M; Delis, Dean C; Paul, Brianna M; Filoteo, J Vincent

2011-02-01

There has been an increasing interest within neuropsychology in comparing verbal fluency for different grammatical classes (e.g., verb generation vs. noun generation) in neurological populations, including Parkinson's disease (PD). However, to our knowledge, few studies have compared verbal fluency for common nouns and proper names in PD. Common nouns and proper names differ in terms of their semantic characteristics, as categories of common nouns are organized hierarchically based on semantics, while categories of proper nouns lack a well-defined semantic organization. In addition, there is accumulating evidence that the retrieval of these distinct grammatical classes are subserved by somewhat distinct neural systems. Given that verbal fluency deficits are among the first impairments to emerge in PD, and that such deficits are predictors of future cognitive decline, it is important to examine all aspects of verbal fluency in this population. For the current study, we compared the performance of a group of 32 nondemented PD patients with 32 healthy participants (HP) on verbal fluency tasks for common nouns (animals) and proper names (boys' first names). A significant interaction between verbal fluency task and diagnostic status emerged, as the PD group performed significantly worse on only the proper name fluency task. This finding may reflect the absence of well-defined semantic organization that structures the verbal search for first names, thus placing a greater onus on strategic or "executive" verbal retrieval processes.

Determination of proper motions in the Pleiades cluster

Science.gov (United States)

Schilbach, E.

1991-04-01

For 458 stars in the Pleiades field from the catalog of Eichhorn et al. (1970) proper motions were derived on Tautenburg and CERGA Schmidt telescope plates measured with the automated measuring machine MAMA in Paris. The catalog positions were considered as first epoch coordinates with an epoch difference of ca. 33 years to the observations. The results show good coincidence of proper motions derived with both Schmidt telescopes within the error bars. Comparison with proper motions determined by Vasilevskis et al. (1979) displays some significant differences but no systematic effects depending on plate coordinates or magnitudes could be found. An accuracy of 0.3 arcsec/100a for one proper motion component was estimated. According to the criterion of common proper motion 34 new cluster members were identified.

Risk-based maintenance-Techniques and applications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Arunraj, N.S.; Maiti, J.

2007-01-01

Plant and equipment, however well designed, will not remain safe or reliable if it is not maintained. The general objective of the maintenance process is to make use of the knowledge of failures and accidents to achieve the possible safety with the lowest possible cost. The concept of risk-based maintenance was developed to inspect the high-risk components usually with greater frequency and thoroughness and to maintain in a greater manner, to achieve tolerable risk criteria. Risk-based maintenance methodology provides a tool for maintenance planning and decision making to reduce the probability of failure of equipment and the consequences of failure. In this paper, the risk analysis and risk-based maintenance methodologies were identified and classified into suitable classes. The factors affecting the quality of risk analysis were identified and analyzed. The applications, input data and output data were studied to understand their functioning and efficiency. The review showed that there is no unique way to perform risk analysis and risk-based maintenance. The use of suitable techniques and methodologies, careful investigation during the risk analysis phase, and its detailed and structured results are necessary to make proper risk-based maintenance decisions

Large proper motions in the Orion nebula

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cudworth, K.M.; Stone, R.C.

1977-01-01

Several nebular features, as well as one faint star, with large proper motions were identified within the Orion nebula. The measured proper motions correspond to tangential velocities of up to approximately 70 km sec -1 . One new probable variable star was also found

Arsenic Speciation in Fish Products and Seafood as a Prerequisite for Proper Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Orletti, Roberta; Chessa, Giannina; Carloni, Cristiano; Griffoni, Francesco; Palombo, Paolo; Velieri, Francesco

2015-01-01

The Boi Cerbus lagoon, facing a mining and industrial site in Sardinia (Italy), is an important fishing area for the local population. Previous studies showed high concentrations of total arsenic (Astot) in fish, molluscs and crustaceans sampled in the lagoon, and a possible exceeding of the provisional tolerable weekly intake set by the Joint FAO/WHO Expert Committee on Food Additives by some local consumer groups. However, the percentage of inorganic As (Asinorg) should be known for a correct assessment of potential risk, as its toxicity is much higher than that of the organic forms. Eighty samples of 14 different species of fish, molluscs and crustaceans, sampled in the Boi Cerbus lagoon in 3 different seasons (winter, spring and summer), were analysed for Astot by inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS) and Asinorg by high performance liquid chromatography-ICP-MS. All the data obtained from the analysis were statistically processed to evaluate significant differences based on season, taxon and habitat, in preparation for a subsequent risk assessment. PMID:27800381

Arsenic speciation in fish products and seafood as a prerequisite for proper risk assessment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pierluigi Piras

2015-02-01

Full Text Available The Boi Cerbus lagoon, facing a mining and industrial site in Sardinia (Italy, is an important fishing area for the local population. Previous studies showed high concentrations of total arsenic (Astot in fish, molluscs and crustaceans sampled in the lagoon, and a possible exceeding of the provisional tolerable weekly intake set by the Joint FAO/WHO Expert Committee on Food Additives by some local consumer groups. However, the percentage of inorganic As (Asinorg should be known for a correct assessment of potential risk, as its toxicity is much higher than that of the organic forms. Eighty samples of 14 different species of fish, molluscs and crustaceans, sampled in the Boi Cerbus lagoon in 3 different seasons (winter, spring and summer, were analysed for Astot by inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS and Asinorg by high performance liquid chromatography-ICP-MS. All the data obtained from the analysis were statistically processed to evaluate significant differences based on season, taxon and habitat, in preparation for a subsequent risk assessment.

A background to risk analysis. Vol. 3

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Taylor, J.R.

1979-01-01

This 4-volumes report gives a background of ideas, principles, and examples which might be of use in developing practical methods for risk analysis. Some of the risk analysis techniques described are somewhat experimental. The report is written in an introductory style, but where some point needs further justifi- cation or evaluation, this is given in the form of a chapter appenix. In this way, it is hoped that the report can serve two purposes, - as a basis for starting risk analysis work and as a basis for discussing effectiveness of risk analysis procedures. The report should be seen as a preliminary stage, prior to a program of industrial trials of risk analysis methods. Vol. 3 contains chapters on quantification of risk, failure and accident probability, risk analysis and design, and examles of risk analysis for process plant. (BP)

Probabilistic risk assessment methodology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shinaishin, M.A.

1988-06-01

The objective of this work is to provide the tools necessary for clear identification of: the purpose of a Probabilistic Risk Study, the bounds and depth of the study, the proper modeling techniques to be used, the failure modes contributing to the analysis, the classical and baysian approaches for manipulating data necessary for quantification, ways for treating uncertainties, and available computer codes that may be used in performing such probabilistic analysis. In addition, it provides the means for measuring the importance of a safety feature to maintaining a level of risk at a Nuclear Power Plant and the worth of optimizing a safety system in risk reduction. In applying these techniques so that they accommodate our national resources and needs it was felt that emphasis should be put on the system reliability analysis level of PRA. Objectives of such studies could include: comparing systems' designs of the various vendors in the bedding stage, and performing grid reliability and human performance analysis using national specific data. (author)

Probabilistic risk assessment methodology

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Shinaishin, M A

1988-06-15

The objective of this work is to provide the tools necessary for clear identification of: the purpose of a Probabilistic Risk Study, the bounds and depth of the study, the proper modeling techniques to be used, the failure modes contributing to the analysis, the classical and baysian approaches for manipulating data necessary for quantification, ways for treating uncertainties, and available computer codes that may be used in performing such probabilistic analysis. In addition, it provides the means for measuring the importance of a safety feature to maintaining a level of risk at a Nuclear Power Plant and the worth of optimizing a safety system in risk reduction. In applying these techniques so that they accommodate our national resources and needs it was felt that emphasis should be put on the system reliability analysis level of PRA. Objectives of such studies could include: comparing systems' designs of the various vendors in the bedding stage, and performing grid reliability and human performance analysis using national specific data. (author)

Computation of Asteroid Proper Elements: Recent Advances

Science.gov (United States)

Knežević, Z.

2017-12-01

The recent advances in computation of asteroid proper elements are briefly reviewed. Although not representing real breakthroughs in computation and stability assessment of proper elements, these advances can still be considered as important improvements offering solutions to some practical problems encountered in the past. The problem of getting unrealistic values of perihelion frequency for very low eccentricity orbits is solved by computing frequencies using the frequency-modified Fourier transform. The synthetic resonant proper elements adjusted to a given secular resonance helped to prove the existence of Astraea asteroid family. The preliminary assessment of stability with time of proper elements computed by means of the analytical theory provides a good indication of their poorer performance with respect to their synthetic counterparts, and advocates in favor of ceasing their regular maintenance; the final decision should, however, be taken on the basis of more comprehensive and reliable direct estimate of their individual and sample average deviations from constancy.

Proper Motion and Secular Variations of Keplerian Orbital Elements

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alexey G. Butkevich

2018-05-01

Full Text Available High-precision observations require accurate modeling of secular changes in the orbital elements in order to extrapolate measurements over long time intervals, and to detect deviation from pure Keplerian motion caused, for example, by other bodies or relativistic effects. We consider the evolution of the Keplerian elements resulting from the gradual change of the apparent orbit orientation due to proper motion. We present rigorous formulae for the transformation of the orbit inclination, longitude of the ascending node and argument of the pericenter from one epoch to another, assuming uniform stellar motion and taking radial velocity into account. An approximate treatment, accurate to the second-order terms in time, is also given. The proper motion effects may be significant for long-period transiting planets. These theoretical results are applicable to the modeling of planetary transits and precise Doppler measurements as well as analysis of pulsar and eclipsing binary timing observations.

Environmental risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lima-e-Silva, Pedro Paulo de

1996-01-01

The conventional Risk Analysis (RA) relates usually a certain undesired event frequency with its consequences. Such technique is used nowadays in Brazil to analyze accidents and their consequences strictly under the human approach, valuing loss of human equipment, human structures and human lives, without considering the damage caused to natural resources that keep life possible on Earth. This paradigm was developed primarily because of the Homo sapiens' lack of perception upon the natural web needed to sustain his own life. In reality, the Brazilian professionals responsible today for licensing, auditing and inspecting environmental aspects of human activities face huge difficulties in making technical specifications and procedures leading to acceptable levels of impact, furthermore considering the intrinsic difficulties to define those levels. Therefore, in Brazil the RA technique is a weak tool for licensing for many reasons, and of them are its short scope (only accident considerations) and wrong a paradigm (only human direct damages). A paper from the author about the former was already proposed to the 7th International Conference on Environmetrics, past July'96, USP-SP. This one discusses the extension of the risk analysis concept to take into account environmental consequences, transforming the conventional analysis into a broader methodology named here as Environmental Risk Analysis. (author)

Proper Living - Exploring Domestic Ideals in Medieval Denmark

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kristiansen, Mette Svart

2014-01-01

Houses frame homes, households, and daily life, and it is reasonable to suggest that ideas of domestic space in medieval society, and ideas of how to live in an orderly and acceptable manner in the eyes of one’s peers and oneself are reflected in domestic architecture, its layout, fittings......, and ornaments. This paper addresses ideas of proper living in affluent rural and urban milieus in medieval Denmark, particularly as they are expressed through houses, inventories, and murals, and it also addresses current challenges in understanding the materialized ideas based on excavations and analysis...

Risk Route Choice Analysis and the Equilibrium Model under Anticipated Regret Theory

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

pengcheng yuan

2014-02-01

Full Text Available The assumption about travellers’ route choice behaviour has major influence on the traffic flow equilibrium analysis. Previous studies about the travellers’ route choice were mainly based on the expected utility maximization theory. However, with the gradually increasing knowledge about the uncertainty of the transportation system, the researchers have realized that there is much constraint in expected util­ity maximization theory, because expected utility maximiza­tion requires travellers to be ‘absolutely rational’; but in fact, travellers are not truly ‘absolutely rational’. The anticipated regret theory proposes an alternative framework to the tra­ditional risk-taking in route choice behaviour which might be more scientific and reasonable. We have applied the antici­pated regret theory to the analysis of the risk route choosing process, and constructed an anticipated regret utility func­tion. By a simple case which includes two parallel routes, the route choosing results influenced by the risk aversion degree, regret degree and the environment risk degree have been analyzed. Moreover, the user equilibrium model based on the anticipated regret theory has been established. The equivalence and the uniqueness of the model are proved; an efficacious algorithm is also proposed to solve the model. Both the model and the algorithm are demonstrated in a real network. By an experiment, the model results and the real data have been compared. It was found that the model re­sults can be similar to the real data if a proper regret degree parameter is selected. This illustrates that the model can better explain the risk route choosing behaviour. Moreover, it was also found that the traveller’ regret degree increases when the environment becomes more and more risky.

Cataclysmic variables in the SUPERBLINK proper motion survey

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Skinner, Julie N.; Thorstensen, John R. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, 6127 Wilder Laboratory, Dartmouth College, Hanover, NH 03755-3528 (United States); Lépine, Sébastien, E-mail: jns@dartmouth.edu [Department of Physics and Astronomy, Georgia State University, 25 Park Place NE, Atlanta, GA 30303 (United States)

2014-12-01

We have discovered a new high proper motion cataclysmic variable (CV) in the SUPERBLINK proper motion survey, which is sensitive to stars with proper motions greater than 40 mas yr{sup −1}. This CV was selected for follow-up observations as part of a larger search for CVs selected based on proper motions and their near-UV−V and V−K{sub s} colors. We present spectroscopic observations from the 2.4 m Hiltner Telescope at MDM Observatory. The new CV's orbital period is near 96 minutes, its spectrum shows the double-peaked Balmer emission lines characteristic of quiescent dwarf novae, and its V magnitude is near 18.2. Additionally, we present a full list of known CVs in the SUPERBLINK catalog.

Component of the risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Martinez, I.; Campon, G.

2013-01-01

The power point presentation reviews issues like analysis of risk (Codex), management risk, preliminary activities manager, relationship between government and industries, microbiological danger and communication of risk

Credit Risk Evaluation : Modeling - Analysis - Management

OpenAIRE

Wehrspohn, Uwe

2002-01-01

An analysis and further development of the building blocks of modern credit risk management: -Definitions of default -Estimation of default probabilities -Exposures -Recovery Rates -Pricing -Concepts of portfolio dependence -Time horizons for risk calculations -Quantification of portfolio risk -Estimation of risk measures -Portfolio analysis and portfolio improvement -Evaluation and comparison of credit risk models -Analytic portfolio loss distributions The thesis contributes to the evaluatio...

Malaria Prevention, Mefloquine Neurotoxicity, Neuropsychiatric Illness, and Risk-Benefit Analysis in the Australian Defence Force

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Stuart McCarthy

2015-01-01

Full Text Available The Australian Defence Force (ADF has used mefloquine for malaria chemoprophylaxis since 1990. Mefloquine has been found to be a plausible cause of a chronic central nervous system toxicity syndrome and a confounding factor in the diagnosis of existing neuropsychiatric illnesses prevalent in the ADF such as posttraumatic stress disorder and traumatic brain injury. Overall health risks appear to have been mitigated by restricting the drug’s use; however serious risks were realised when significant numbers of ADF personnel were subjected to clinical trials involving the drug. The full extent of the exposure, health impacts for affected individuals, and consequences for ADF health management including mental health are not yet known, but mefloquine may have caused or aggravated neuropsychiatric illness in large numbers of patients who were subsequently misdiagnosed and mistreated or otherwise failed to receive proper care. Findings in relation to chronic mefloquine neurotoxicity were foreseeable, but this eventuality appears not to have been considered during risk-benefit analyses. Thorough analysis by the ADF would have identified this long-term risk as well as other qualitative risk factors. Historical exposure of ADF personnel to mefloquine neurotoxicity now also necessitates ongoing risk monitoring and management in the overall context of broader health policies.

Risk-benefit analysis in mammography: A study on the Umbria population. Analisi rischio-beneficio in mammografia: Uno studio sulla popolazione dell'Umbria

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Antonini, A; Borio, R; Pagliochini, C; Pazzaglia, P G; Salvadori, P; Verdecchia, A

1984-07-09

A risk analysis for mammographic screening has been carried out in Umbria with reference both to the general population and to a more restricted one which was selected on the basis of physical examination results and common risk-factors. Losses of life-expectancy for screened and unscreened subjects have been compared. Leaving out of account economic and social factors, data analysis seems to indicate that for the selected population a one-year periodicity mammographic screening is a proper one if starting at age 31. Concerning the general population, maximum benefit is obtained for a one-year periodicity screening starting at older ages, which depend both on the hypothesized dose (with or without screens) and on the assumed tumor doubling time.

Risk Analysis in Road Tunnels – Most Important Risk Indicators

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Berchtold, Florian; Knaust, Christian; Thöns, Sebastian

2016-01-01

Methodologies on fire risk analysis in road tunnels consider numerous factors affecting risks (risk indicators) and express the results by risk measures. But only few comprehensive studies on effects of risk indicators on risk measures are available. For this reason, this study quantifies...... the effects and highlights the most important risk indicators with the aim to support further developments in risk analysis. Therefore, a system model of a road tunnel was developed to determine the risk measures. The system model can be divided into three parts: the fire part connected to the fire model Fire...... Dynamics Simulator (FDS); the evacuation part connected to the evacuation model FDS+Evac; and the frequency part connected to a model to calculate the frequency of fires. This study shows that the parts of the system model (and their most important risk indicators) affect the risk measures in the following...

Risk analysis in radiosurgery treatments using risk matrices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Delgado, J. M.; Sanchez Cayela, C.; Ramirez, M. L.; Perez, A.

2011-01-01

The aim of this study is the risk analysis process stereotactic single-dose radiotherapy and evaluation of those initiating events that lead to increased risk and a possible solution in the design of barriers.

Econometrics of risk

CERN Document Server

Kreinovich, Vladik; Sriboonchitta, Songsak; Suriya, Komsan

2015-01-01

This edited book contains several state-of-the-art papers devoted to econometrics of risk. Some papers provide theoretical analysis of the corresponding mathematical, statistical, computational, and economical models. Other papers describe applications of the novel risk-related econometric techniques to real-life economic situations. The book presents new methods developed just recently, in particular, methods using non-Gaussian heavy-tailed distributions, methods using non-Gaussian copulas to properly take into account dependence between different quantities, methods taking into account imprecise ("fuzzy") expert knowledge, and many other innovative techniques. This versatile volume helps practitioners to learn how to apply new techniques of econometrics of risk, and researchers to further improve the existing models and to come up with new ideas on how to best take into account economic risks.

Proper time axis of a closed relativistic system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chernikov, N.A.; Fadeev, N.G.; Shavokhina, N.S.

1997-01-01

The definition of a proper time axis of a closed relativistic system of colliding particles is given. The solution of the proper time axis problem is presented. If the light velocity c equals the imaginary unit i, then in the case of a plane motion of the system the problem about the proper time axis turns out to be equivalent to the known in engineering mechanics problem about the reduction of any system of forces, applied to a rigid body, to the dynamic screw. In the general case, when c=i, the problem about the proper time axis turns out to be equivalent to the problem about the reduction to the dynamic screw of a system of forces, applied to a rigid body in a four-dimensional Euclidean space

Risk analysis of Odelouca cofferdam

OpenAIRE

Pimenta, L.; Caldeira, L.; Maranha das Neves, E.

2009-01-01

In this paper we present the risk analysis of Odelouca Cofferdam, using an event tree analysis. The initializing events, failure modes and analysed limit states are discussed based on an influence diagram. The constructed event trees and their interpretation are presented. The obtained risk values are represented in an FN plot superimposed to the acceptability and tolerability risk limits proposed for Portuguese dams. Initially, particular emphasis is placed on the main characteristic...

Comparison of Management Oversight and Risk Tree and Tripod-Beta in Excavation Accident Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mohamadfam

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Background Accident investigation programs are a necessary part in identification of risks and management of the business process. Objectives One of the most important features of such programs is the analysis technique for identifying the root causes of accidents in order to prevent their recurrences. Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP was used to compare management oversight and risk tree (MORT with Tripod-Beta in order to determine the superior technique for analysis of fatal excavation accidents in construction industries. Materials and Methods MORT and Tripod-Beta techniques were used for analyzing two major accidents with three main steps. First, these techniques were applied to find out the causal factors of the accidents. Second, a number of criteria were developed for the comparison of the techniques and third, using AHP, the techniques were prioritized in terms of the criteria for choosing the superior one. Results The Tripod-Beta investigation showed 41 preconditions and 81 latent causes involved in the accidents. Additionally, 27 root causes of accidents were identified by the MORT analysis. Analytical hierarchy process (AHP investigation revealed that MORT had higher priorities only in two criteria than Tripod-Beta. Conclusions Our findings indicate that Tripod-Beta with a total priority of 0.664 is superior to MORT with the total priority of 0.33. It is recommended for future research to compare the available accident analysis techniques based on proper criteria to select the best for accident analysis.

Generalized indices for radiation risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bykov, A.A.; Demin, V.F.

1989-01-01

A new approach to ensuring nuclear safety has begun forming since the early eighties. The approach based on the probabilistic safety analysis, the principles of acceptable risk, the optimization of safety measures, etc. has forced a complex of adequate quantitative methods of assessment, safety analysis and risk management to be developed. The method of radiation risk assessment and analysis hold a prominent place in the complex. National and international research and regulatory organizations ICRP, IAEA, WHO, UNSCEAR, OECD/NEA have given much attention to the development of the conceptual and methodological basis of those methods. Some resolutions of the National Commission of Radiological Protection (NCRP) and the Problem Commission on Radiation Hygiene of the USSR Ministry of Health should be also noted. Both CBA (cost benefit analysis) and other methods of radiation risk analysis and safety management use a system of natural and socio-economic indices characterizing the radiation risk or damage. There exist a number of problems associated with the introduction, justification and use of these indices. For example, the price, a, of radiation damage, or collective dose unit, is a noteworthy index. The difficulties in its qualitative and quantitative determination are still an obstacle for a wide application of CBA to the radiation risk analysis and management. During recent 10-15 years these problems have been a subject of consideration for many authors. The present paper also considers the issues of the qualitative and quantitative justification of the indices of radiation risk analysis

Reliability and validity of risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Aven, Terje; Heide, Bjornar

2009-01-01

In this paper we investigate to what extent risk analysis meets the scientific quality requirements of reliability and validity. We distinguish between two types of approaches within risk analysis, relative frequency-based approaches and Bayesian approaches. The former category includes both traditional statistical inference methods and the so-called probability of frequency approach. Depending on the risk analysis approach, the aim of the analysis is different, the results are presented in different ways and consequently the meaning of the concepts reliability and validity are not the same.

Efficacy, safety and proper dose analysis of PEGylated granulocyte colony-stimulating factor as support for dose-dense adjuvant chemotherapy in node positive Chinese breast cancer patients

OpenAIRE

Zhang, Fan; LingHu, RuiXia; Zhan, XingYang; Li, Ruisheng; Feng, Fan; Gao, Xudong; Zhao, Lei; Yang, Junlan

2017-01-01

For high-risk breast cancer patients with positive axillary lymph nodes, dose-dense every-two-week epirubicin/cyclophosphamide-paclitaxel (ddEC-P) regimen is the optimal postoperative adjuvant therapy. However, this regimen is limited by the grade 3/4 neutropenia and febrile neutropenia (FN). There is an urgent need to explore the efficacy, safety and proper dosage of PEGylated granulocyte colony-stimulating factor (PEG-G-CSF) as support for ddEC-P in Chinese breast cancer patients with posit...

Safety analysis, risk assessment, and risk acceptance criteria

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jamali, K.

1997-01-01

This paper discusses a number of topics that relate safety analysis as documented in the Department of Energy (DOE) safety analysis reports (SARs), probabilistic risk assessments (PRA) as characterized primarily in the context of the techniques that have assumed some level of formality in commercial nuclear power plant applications, and risk acceptance criteria as an outgrowth of PRA applications. DOE SARs of interest are those that are prepared for DOE facilities under DOE Order 5480.23 and the implementing guidance in DOE STD-3009-94. It must be noted that the primary area of application for DOE STD-3009 is existing DOE facilities and that certain modifications of the STD-3009 approach are necessary in SARs for new facilities. Moreover, it is the hazard analysis (HA) and accident analysis (AA) portions of these SARs that are relevant to the present discussions. Although PRAs can be qualitative in nature, PRA as used in this paper refers more generally to all quantitative risk assessments and their underlying methods. HA as used in this paper refers more generally to all qualitative risk assessments and their underlying methods that have been in use in hazardous facilities other than nuclear power plants. This discussion includes both quantitative and qualitative risk assessment methods. PRA has been used, improved, developed, and refined since the Reactor Safety Study (WASH-1400) was published in 1975 by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). Much debate has ensued since WASH-1400 on exactly what the role of PRA should be in plant design, reactor licensing, 'ensuring' plant and process safety, and a large number of other decisions that must be made for potentially hazardous activities. Of particular interest in this area is whether the risks quantified using PRA should be compared with numerical risk acceptance criteria (RACs) to determine whether a facility is 'safe.' Use of RACs requires quantitative estimates of consequence frequency and magnitude

A background to risk analysis. Vol. 2

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Taylor, J.R.

1979-01-01

This 4-volumes report gives a background of ideas, principles and examples which might be of use in developing practical methods for risk analysis. Some of the risk analysis techniques described are somewhat experimental. The report is written in an introductory style, but where some point needs further justification or evaluation, this is given in the form of a chapter appendix. In this way, it is hoped that the report can serve two purposes, - as a basis for starting risk analysis work and as a basis for discussing effectiveness of risk analysis procedures. The report should be seen as a preliminary stage, prior to a program of industrial trials of risk analysis methods. Vol. 2 treats generic methods of qualitative failure analysis. (BP)

Information Security Risk Analysis

CERN Document Server

Peltier, Thomas R

2010-01-01

Offers readers with the knowledge and the skill-set needed to achieve a highly effective risk analysis assessment. This title demonstrates how to identify threats and then determine if those threats pose a real risk. It is suitable for industry and academia professionals.

TOWARDS PROPER CULTURAL RESOURCE MANAGEMENT ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

GRACE

proper harnessing and management of cultural resources in Nigeria for sustainable development .... and knowledge) to organize the resources available to man with the aim of optimizing their use in the ... needs‖ (World Bank 1992). Thus, as ...

Proper Islamic Consumption

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Fischer, Johan

mobile, religiously committed communities to the opportunities and perils presented by modernisation. It also tells us something about the debates concerning the meanings and practices of Islam within an aggressive, globalised, secularised modernity. In Malaysia this is an especially intriguing issue...... spite of a long line of social theory analyzing the spiritual in the economic, and vice versa, very little of the recent increase in scholarship on Islam addresses its relationship with capitalism. Johan Fischer’s book,Proper Islamic Consumption, begins to fill this gap. […] Fischer’s detailed...

Bias in risk-benefit analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mazur, A.

1985-01-01

Risk-benefit analysis has become popular in the past decade as a means of improving decision making, especially in the area of technology policy. Here risk-benefit analysis is compared to other (equally defensible) approaches to decision making, showing how it favors some political interests more than others, and suggesting why it has recently come to the fore as a tool of political analysis. A considerable portion of the discussion concerns nuclear power. 6 references

Impact of quasar proper motions on the alignment between the International Celestial Reference Frame and the Gaia reference frame

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, J.-C.; Malkin, Z.; Zhu, Z.

2018-03-01

The International Celestial Reference Frame (ICRF) is currently realized by the very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) observations of extragalactic sources with the zero proper motion assumption, while Gaia will observe proper motions of these distant and faint objects to an accuracy of tens of microarcseconds per year. This paper investigates the difference between VLBI and Gaia quasar proper motions and it aims to understand the impact of quasar proper motions on the alignment of the ICRF and Gaia reference frame. We use the latest time series data of source coordinates from the International VLBI Service analysis centres operated at Goddard Space Flight Center (GSF2017) and Paris observatory (OPA2017), as well as the Gaia auxiliary quasar solution containing 2191 high-probability optical counterparts of the ICRF2 sources. The linear proper motions in right ascension and declination of VLBI sources are derived by least-squares fits while the proper motions for Gaia sources are simulated taking into account the acceleration of the Solar system barycentre and realistic uncertainties depending on the source brightness. The individual and global features of source proper motions in GSF2017 and OPA2017 VLBI data are found to be inconsistent, which may result from differences in VLBI observations, data reduction and analysis. A comparison of the VLBI and Gaia proper motions shows that the accuracies of the components of rotation and glide between the two systems are 2-4 μas yr- 1 based on about 600 common sources. For the future alignment of the ICRF and Gaia reference frames at different wavelengths, the proper motions of quasars must necessarily be considered.

A background to risk analysis. Vol. 4

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Taylor, J.R.

1979-01-01

This 4-volumes report gives a background of ideas, principles, and examples which might be of use in developing practical methods for risk analysis. Some of the risk analysis techniques described are somewhat experimental. The report is written in an introductory style, but where some point needs further justification or evaluation, this is given in the form of a chapter appendix. In this way, it is hoped that the report can serve two purposes, - as a basis for starting risk analysis work and as a basis for discussing effectiveness of risk analysis procedures. The report should be seen as a preliminary stage, prior to a program of industrial trials of risk analysis methods. Vol. 4 treats human error in plant operation. (BP)

PROPER MOTIONS OF THE HH 110/270 SYSTEM

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kajdič, P.; Reipurth, B.; Walawender, J.; Raga, A. C.; Bally, J.

2012-01-01

We present a study of the HH 110/270 system based on three sets of optical images obtained with the ESO New Technology Telescope, the Subaru Telescope, and the Hubble Space Telescope (HST). The ground-based observations are made in the Hα and [S II] emission lines and the HST observations are made in the Hα line only. Ground-based observations reveal the existence of nine knots, which have not been previously discussed and offer some important insight into the HH 110/270 history. We perform a kinematic study of the HH 110/270 system and an analysis of its emission properties. We measure proper motions of all the knots in the system. Four of the newly identified knots belong to the HH 270 jet. Their positions indicate that the jet's axis changed its direction in the past. We speculate that similar changes may have occurred many times in the past and this could be part of the reason for the unusual structure of the HH 110 jet. The HST observations allow us to resolve individual knots into their substructures and to measure their proper motions. These measurements show that the knots are highly turbulent structures. Finally, we report the discovery of four new Herbig-Haro (HH) objects located near the HH 110/270 system.

Not proper ROC curves as new tool for the analysis of differentially expressed genes in microarray experiments

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pistoia Vito

2008-10-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Most microarray experiments are carried out with the purpose of identifying genes whose expression varies in relation with specific conditions or in response to environmental stimuli. In such studies, genes showing similar mean expression values between two or more groups are considered as not differentially expressed, even if hidden subclasses with different expression values may exist. In this paper we propose a new method for identifying differentially expressed genes, based on the area between the ROC curve and the rising diagonal (ABCR. ABCR represents a more general approach than the standard area under the ROC curve (AUC, because it can identify both proper (i.e., concave and not proper ROC curves (NPRC. In particular, NPRC may correspond to those genes that tend to escape standard selection methods. Results We assessed the performance of our method using data from a publicly available database of 4026 genes, including 14 normal B cell samples (NBC and 20 heterogeneous lymphomas (namely: 9 follicular lymphomas and 11 chronic lymphocytic leukemias. Moreover, NBC also included two sub-classes, i.e., 6 heavily stimulated and 8 slightly or not stimulated samples. We identified 1607 differentially expressed genes with an estimated False Discovery Rate of 15%. Among them, 16 corresponded to NPRC and all escaped standard selection procedures based on AUC and t statistics. Moreover, a simple inspection to the shape of such plots allowed to identify the two subclasses in either one class in 13 cases (81%. Conclusion NPRC represent a new useful tool for the analysis of microarray data.

Analysis of risk assessment of brachytherapy from the radiotherapy services of the metropolitan region of Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Burgos, Adam de Freitas; Paiva, Eduardo de; Souza, Roberto Salomon de

2014-01-01

Currently there are few applications on the risk analysis procedures related to radiotherapy, mainly in the practice of brachytherapy. The objective of this study was to analyze the perception of risk levels, present in the practice of high dose rate brachytherapy (HDR), using a form based on the concept of the risk matrix and a database (SEVRRA) containing information about the processes related to routine brachytherapy. A form containing information regarding the brachytherapy procedure HDR and an attachment indicating how to complete it properly was delivered to a medical physicist of each service/institution. The reference value for the risk levels found, considered acceptable for all performed analyzes, was set at a percentage limit of 33% (assuming a failure in each 3 existing processes). The results showed that the overall risk analysis showed a value for average percentage of prioritized risk of 18% below the recommended range. About the analyzed groups, the higher average percentage of relative risk was found less than 12% of the recommended range, associated with the group of patients. On existing steps, the highest average percentage of relative risk was found less than 1% of the recommended range, associated with stage records and treatment planning. This study showed that although this procedure does not have a large history of accidents, still poses risks considerable that must be managed with great accuracy and immediate action to an effective decrease these risk percentages

Proper laboratory notebook practices: protecting your intellectual property.

Science.gov (United States)

Nickla, Jason T; Boehm, Matthew B

2011-03-01

A laboratory notebook contains a wealth of knowledge that can be critical for establishing evidence in support of intellectual property rights and for refuting claims of research misconduct. The proper type, organization, use, maintenance, and storage of laboratory notebooks should be a priority for everyone at research institutions. Failure to properly document research activities can lead to serious problems, including the loss of valuable patent rights. Consequences of improper laboratory notebook practices can be harsh; numerous examples are described in court cases and journal articles, indicating a need for research institutions to develop strict policies on the proper use and storage of research documentation.

Comparison of Methods of Teaching Children Proper Lifting ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Objective: This study was designed to determine the effects of three teaching methods on children\\'s ability to demonstrate and recall their mastery of proper lifting techniques. Method: Ninety-three primary five and six public school children who had no knowledge of proper lifting technique were assigned into three equal ...

ECU@Risk, a methodology for risk management applied to MSMEs

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Esteban Crespo Martínez

2017-02-01

Full Text Available Information is the most valuable element for any organization or person in this new century, which, for many companies, is a competitive advantage asset (Vásquez & Gabalán, 2015. However, despite the lack of knowledge about how to protect it properly or the complexity of international standards that indicate procedures to achieve an adequate level of protection, many organizations, especially the MSMEs sector, fails to achieve this goal.Therefore, this study proposes a methodology for information security risk management, which is applicable to the business and organizational environment of the Ecuadorian MSME sector. For this purpose, we analyze several methodologies as Magerit, CRAMM (CCTA Risk Analysis and Management Method, OCTAVE-S, Microsoft Risk Guide, COBIT 5 COSO III. These methodologies are internationally used in risk management of information; in the light of the frameworks of the industry: ISO 27001, 27002, 27005 and 31000.

Advances in probabilistic risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hardung von Hardung, H.

1982-01-01

Probabilistic risk analysis can now look back upon almost a quarter century of intensive development. The early studies, whose methods and results are still referred to occasionally, however, only permitted rough estimates to be made of the probabilities of recognizable accident scenarios, failing to provide a method which could have served as a reference base in calculating the overall risk associated with nuclear power plants. The first truly solid attempt was the Rasmussen Study and, partly based on it, the German Risk Study. In those studies, probabilistic risk analysis has been given a much more precise basis. However, new methodologies have been developed in the meantime, which allow much more informative risk studies to be carried out. They have been found to be valuable tools for management decisions with respect to backfitting, reinforcement and risk limitation. Today they are mainly applied by specialized private consultants and have already found widespread application especially in the USA. (orig.) [de

WIPP fire hazards and risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1991-05-01

The purpose of this analysis was to conduct a fire hazards risk analysis of the Transuranic (TRU) contact-handled waste receipt, emplacement, and disposal activities at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP). The technical bases and safety envelope for these operations are defined in the approved WIPP Final Safety Analysis Report (FSAR). Although the safety documentation for the initial phase of the Test Program, the dry bin scale tests, has not yet been approved by the Department of Energy (DOE), reviews of the draft to date, including those by the Advisory Committee on Nuclear Facility Safety (ACNFS), have concluded that the dry bin scale tests present no significant risks in excess of those estimated in the approved WIPP FSAR. It is the opinion of the authors and reviewers of this analysis, based on sound engineering judgment and knowledge of the WIPP operations, that a Fire Hazards and Risk Analysis specific to the dry bin scale test program is not warranted prior to first waste receipt. This conclusion is further supported by the risk analysis presented in this document which demonstrates the level of risk to WIPP operations posed by fire to be extremely low. 15 refs., 41 figs., 48 tabs

Risk estimation for carcinogens based on epidemiological data: A structured approach, illustrated by an example on chromium

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Goldbohm, R.A.; Tielemans, E.L.J.P.; Heederik, D.; Rubingh, C.M.; Dekkers, S.; Willems, M.I.; Dinant Kroese, E.

2006-01-01

It is generally recognized that human, epidemiological data, if available, are preferred as the starting point for quantitative risk analysis above the use of data from animal studies. Although methods to obtain proper risk estimates from epidemiological data are available, several impediments

Risk Characterization uncertainties associated description, sensitivity analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Carrillo, M.; Tovar, M.; Alvarez, J.; Arraez, M.; Hordziejewicz, I.; Loreto, I.

2013-01-01

The power point presentation is about risks to the estimated levels of exposure, uncertainty and variability in the analysis, sensitivity analysis, risks from exposure to multiple substances, formulation of guidelines for carcinogenic and genotoxic compounds and risk subpopulations

Advances in Risk Analysis with Big Data.

Science.gov (United States)

Choi, Tsan-Ming; Lambert, James H

2017-08-01

With cloud computing, Internet-of-things, wireless sensors, social media, fast storage and retrieval, etc., organizations and enterprises have access to unprecedented amounts and varieties of data. Current risk analysis methodology and applications are experiencing related advances and breakthroughs. For example, highway operations data are readily available, and making use of them reduces risks of traffic crashes and travel delays. Massive data of financial and enterprise systems support decision making under risk by individuals, industries, regulators, etc. In this introductory article, we first discuss the meaning of big data for risk analysis. We then examine recent advances in risk analysis with big data in several topic areas. For each area, we identify and introduce the relevant articles that are featured in the special issue. We conclude with a discussion on future research opportunities. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

Overcoming barriers to integrating economic analysis into risk assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Hoffmann, Sandra

2011-09-01

Regulatory risk analysis is designed to provide decisionmakers with a clearer understanding of how policies are likely to affect risk. The systems that produce risk are biological, physical, and social and economic. As a result, risk analysis is an inherently interdisciplinary task. Yet in practice, risk analysis has been interdisciplinary in only limited ways. Risk analysis could provide more accurate assessments of risk if there were better integration of economics and other social sciences into risk assessment itself. This essay examines how discussions about risk analysis policy have influenced the roles of various disciplines in risk analysis. It explores ways in which integrated bio/physical-economic modeling could contribute to more accurate assessments of risk. It reviews examples of the kind of integrated economics-bio/physical modeling that could be used to enhance risk assessment. The essay ends with a discussion of institutional barriers to greater integration of economic modeling into risk assessment and provides suggestions on how these might be overcome. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

Risks of Mergers and Acquisitions Processes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Skitsko Volodymyr I.

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Despite structural changes both in the economies of individual countries and in the world at large, the size of the merger/acquisition market is not declining and is tending to grow further. However, uncertainty in the global environment increases the importance of proper analysis, assessment and risk management in merger/acquisition transactions. Using the relevant research and publications by various authors, we have built a general ranking of the significance of merger and acquisition risks according to phases of the indicated process, with comparison of individual risk ratings, based on the publications by authors from Central and Eastern Europe and other countries around the world. The ranking of risks and threats of mergers/acquisitions proposed in this work can be considered one of the most complete for today. Further research needs to focus on the analysis, evaluation, and modeling of merger/acquisition risks, which occupy the top of the ranking, presented by the article.

Archetypes: the PropeR way

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van der Linden, Helma; Grimson, Jane; Tange, Huibert; Talmon, Jan; Hasman, Arie

2004-01-01

The PropeR project studies the effect of Decision Support in an Electronic Health Record system (EHR) on the quality of care. One of the applications supports a multidisciplinary primary care team rehabilitating stroke patients in their home environment. This project required an EHR system that

Maritime transportation risk analysis: Review and analysis in light of some foundational issues

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Goerlandt, Floris; Montewka, Jakub

2015-01-01

Many methods and applications for maritime transportation risk analysis have been presented in the literature. In parallel, there is a recent focus on foundational issues in risk analysis, with calls for intensified research on fundamental concepts and principles underlying the scientific field. This paper presents a review and analysis of risk definitions, perspectives and scientific approaches to risk analysis found in the maritime transportation application area, focusing on applications addressing accidental risk of shipping in a sea area. For this purpose, a classification of risk definitions, an overview of elements in risk perspectives and a classification of approaches to risk analysis science are applied. Results reveal that in the application area, risk is strongly tied to probability, both in definitions and perspectives, while alternative views exist. A diffuse situation is also found concerning the scientific approach to risk analysis, with realist, proceduralist and constructivist foundations co-existing. Realist approaches dominate the application area. Very few applications systematically account for uncertainty, neither concerning the evidence base nor in relation to the limitations of the risk model in relation to the space of possible outcomes. Some suggestions are made to improve the current situation, aiming to strengthen the scientific basis for risk analysis. - Highlights: • Risk analyses in maritime transportation analysed in light of foundational issues. • Focus on definitions, perspectives and scientific approaches to risk analysis. • Probability-based definitions and realist approaches dominate the field. • Findings support calls for increased focus on foundational issues in risk research. • Some suggestions are made to improve the current situation

STOCHASTIC METHODS IN RISK ANALYSIS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vladimíra OSADSKÁ

2017-06-01

Full Text Available In this paper, we review basic stochastic methods which can be used to extend state-of-the-art deterministic analytical methods for risk analysis. We can conclude that the standard deterministic analytical methods highly depend on the practical experience and knowledge of the evaluator and therefore, the stochastic methods should be introduced. The new risk analysis methods should consider the uncertainties in input values. We present how large is the impact on the results of the analysis solving practical example of FMECA with uncertainties modelled using Monte Carlo sampling.

Risk Analysis of Telecom Enterprise Financing

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

YU Hua; SHU Hua-ying

2005-01-01

The main research objects in this paper are the causes searching and risk estimating method for telecom enterprises' financial risks. The multi-mode financing for telecom enterprises makes it flexible to induce the capital and obtain the profit by corresponding projects. But there are also potential risks going with these financing modes. After making analysis of categories and causes of telecom enterprises' financing risk, a method by Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is put forward to estimating the financing risk. And the author makes her suggestion and opinion by example analysis, in order to provide some ideas and basis for telecom enterprise's financing decision-making.

Smarandachely Adjacent-Vertex-Distinguishing Proper Edge Chromatic Number of Cm∨Kn

OpenAIRE

Shunqin Liu

2016-01-01

According to different conditions, researchers have defined a great deal of coloring problems and the corresponding chromatic numbers. Such as, adjacent-vertex-distinguishing total chromatic number, adjacent-vertex-distinguishing proper edge chromatic number, smarandachely-adjacent-vertex-distinguishing proper edge chromatic number, smarandachely-adjacent-vertex-distinguishing proper total chromatic number. And we focus on the smarandachely adjacent-vertex-distinguishing proper edge chromatic...

Probabilistic risk analysis for nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hauptmanns, U.

1988-01-01

Risk analysis is applied if the calculation of risk from observed failures is not possible, because events contributing substantially to risk are too seldom, as in the case of nuclear reactors. The process of analysis provides a number of benefits. Some of them are listed. After this by no means complete enumeration of possible benefits to be derived from a risk analysis. An outline of risk studiesd for PWR's with some comments on the models used are given. The presentation is indebted to the detailed treatment of the subject given in the PRA Procedures Guide. Thereafter some results of the German Risk Study, Phase B, which is under way are communicated. The paper concludes with some remarks on probabilistic considerations in licensing procedures. (orig./DG)

Single-shell tank interim stabilization risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Basche, A.D.

1998-01-01

The purpose of the Single-Shell Tank (SST) Interim Stabilization Risk Analysis is to provide a cost and schedule risk analysis of HNF-2358, Rev. 1, Single-Shell Tank Interim Stabilization Project Plan (Project Plan) (Ross et al. 1998). The analysis compares the required cost profile by fiscal year (Section 4.2) and revised schedule completion date (Section 4.5) to the Project Plan. The analysis also evaluates the executability of the Project Plan and recommends a path forward for risk mitigation

PROPER MOTIONS OF THE HH 110/270 SYSTEM

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kajdic, P. [Instituto de Astronomia, UNAM, Mexico D.F. (Mexico); Reipurth, B.; Walawender, J. [Institute for Astronomy, University of Hawaii at Manoa, 640 N. A' ohoku Place, Hilo, HI 96720 (United States); Raga, A. C. [Instituto de Ciencias Nucleares, UNAM, Mexico D.F. (Mexico); Bally, J., E-mail: primoz@geofisica.unam.mx, E-mail: reipurth@IfA.Hawaii.Edu, E-mail: raga@nucleares.unam.mx, E-mail: John.Bally@casa.colorado.edu, E-mail: joshw@ifa.hawaii.edu [CASA, University of Colorado, 389 UCB, Boulder, CO 80309-0389 (United States)

2012-05-15

We present a study of the HH 110/270 system based on three sets of optical images obtained with the ESO New Technology Telescope, the Subaru Telescope, and the Hubble Space Telescope (HST). The ground-based observations are made in the H{alpha} and [S II] emission lines and the HST observations are made in the H{alpha} line only. Ground-based observations reveal the existence of nine knots, which have not been previously discussed and offer some important insight into the HH 110/270 history. We perform a kinematic study of the HH 110/270 system and an analysis of its emission properties. We measure proper motions of all the knots in the system. Four of the newly identified knots belong to the HH 270 jet. Their positions indicate that the jet's axis changed its direction in the past. We speculate that similar changes may have occurred many times in the past and this could be part of the reason for the unusual structure of the HH 110 jet. The HST observations allow us to resolve individual knots into their substructures and to measure their proper motions. These measurements show that the knots are highly turbulent structures. Finally, we report the discovery of four new Herbig-Haro (HH) objects located near the HH 110/270 system.

Multiple Sclerosis Increases Fracture Risk: A Meta-Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Guixian Dong

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Purpose. The association between multiple sclerosis (MS and fracture risk has been reported, but results of previous studies remain controversial and ambiguous. To assess the association between MS and fracture risk, a meta-analysis was performed. Method. Based on comprehensive searches of the PubMed, Embase, and Web of Science, we identified outcome data from all articles estimating the association between MS and fracture risk. The pooled risk ratios (RRs with 95% confidence intervals (CIs were calculated. Results. A significant association between MS and fracture risk was found. This result remained statistically significant when the adjusted RRs were combined. Subgroup analysis stratified by the site of fracture suggested significant associations between MS and tibia fracture risk, femur fracture risk, hip fracture risk, pelvis fracture risk, vertebrae fracture risk, and humerus fracture risk. In the subgroup analysis by gender, female MS patients had increased fracture risk. When stratified by history of drug use, use of antidepressants, hypnotics/anxiolytics, anticonvulsants, and glucocorticoids increased the risk of fracture risk in MS patients. Conclusions. This meta-analysis demonstrated that MS was significantly associated with fracture risk.

Ensemble Learning or Deep Learning? Application to Default Risk Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shigeyuki Hamori

2018-03-01

Full Text Available Proper credit-risk management is essential for lending institutions, as substantial losses can be incurred when borrowers default. Consequently, statistical methods that can measure and analyze credit risk objectively are becoming increasingly important. This study analyzes default payment data and compares the prediction accuracy and classification ability of three ensemble-learning methods—specifically, bagging, random forest, and boosting—with those of various neural-network methods, each of which has a different activation function. The results obtained indicate that the classification ability of boosting is superior to other machine-learning methods including neural networks. It is also found that the performance of neural-network models depends on the choice of activation function, the number of middle layers, and the inclusion of dropout.

Adaptation of Proper Nouns in Czech-American Periodicals at the End of the 19th Century

OpenAIRE

Burdová, Kateřina

2016-01-01

The bachelor's thesis focuses on the process of adaptation of proper nouns in chosen periodicals of the end of the 19th century that were published in the USA by Czech immigrants. Based on the analysis of periodicals collected from the Library of the Naprstek Museum of Prague there originated a list of proper nouns that has been studied from various points of view, namely the phonetics and phonology, morphology including the word-class competition (Cedar Rapidský - Cedar Rapids), translatedan...

The Southern Proper Motion Program. IV. The SPM4 Catalog

Science.gov (United States)

Girard, Terrence M.; van Altena, William F.; Zacharias, Norbert; Vieira, Katherine; Casetti-Dinescu, Dana I.; Castillo, Danilo; Herrera, David; Lee, Young Sun; Beers, Timothy C.; Monet, David G.; López, Carlos E.

2011-07-01

We present the fourth installment of the Yale/San Juan Southern Proper Motion Catalog, SPM4. The SPM4 contains absolute proper motions, celestial coordinates, and B, V photometry for over 103 million stars and galaxies between the south celestial pole and -20° declination. The catalog is roughly complete to V = 17.5 and is based on photographic and CCD observations taken with the Yale Southern Observatory's double astrograph at Cesco Observatory in El Leoncito, Argentina. The proper-motion precision, for well-measured stars, is estimated to be 2-3 mas yr-1, depending on the type of second-epoch material. At the bright end, proper motions are on the International Celestial Reference System by way of Hipparcos Catalog stars, while the faint end is anchored to the inertial system using external galaxies. Systematic uncertainties in the absolute proper motions are on the order of 1 mas yr-1.

Application of group theory to proper vibrations in an electric circuit

OpenAIRE

Hosoya, Masahiko; 細谷, 将彦

2010-01-01

Group-theoretical analysis is first presented to three-dimensional behavior of an electric circuit. All the modes of proper vibration are found and assigned to each irreducible representation of symmetrical group of the circuit without solving its circuit equations. In order that an electromagnetic radiation from the outside may induce each vibration, a selection rule which is similar to that in infrared absorption must be fulfilled. The circuit may be used as a directive antenna.

38 CFR 75.115 - Risk analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... 38 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief 2 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Risk analysis. 75.115 Section 75.115 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief DEPARTMENT OF VETERANS AFFAIRS (CONTINUED) INFORMATION SECURITY MATTERS Data Breaches § 75.115 Risk analysis. If a data breach involving sensitive personal information that is processed or...

Common approach of risks analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Noviello, L.; Naviglio, A.

1996-01-01

Although, following the resolutions of the High German Court, the protection level of the human beings is an objective which can change in time, it is obvious that it is an important point when there is a risk for the population. This is true more particularly for the industrial plants whose possible accidents could affect the population. The accidents risk analysis indicates that there is no conceptual difference between the risks of a nuclear power plant and those of the other industrial plants as chemical plants, the gas distribution system and the hydraulic dams. A legislation analysis induced by the Seveso Directive for the industrial risks give some important indications which should always be followed. This work analyses more particularly the legislative situation in different European countries and identifies some of the most important characteristics. Indeed, for most of the countries, the situation is different and it is a later difficulties source for nuclear power plants. In order to strengthen this reasoning, this paper presents some preliminary results of an analysis of a nuclear power plant following the approach of other industrial plants. In conclusion, it will be necessary to analyse again the risks assessment approach for nuclear power plants because the real protection level of human beings in a country is determined by the less regulated of the dangerous industrial plants existing at the surroundings. (O.M.)

Standardised risk analysis as a communication tool

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pluess, Ch.; Montanarini, M.; Bernauer, M.

1998-01-01

Full text of publication follows: several European countries require a risk analysis for the production, storage or transport a dangerous goods. This requirement imposes considerable administrative effort for some sectors of the industry. In order to minimize the effort of such studies, a generic risk analysis for an industrial sector proved to help. Standardised procedures can consequently be derived for efficient performance of the risk investigations. This procedure was successfully established in Switzerland for natural gas transmission lines and fossil fuel storage plants. The development process of the generic risk analysis involved an intense discussion between industry and authorities about methodology of assessment and the criteria of acceptance. This process finally led to scientific consistent modelling tools for risk analysis and to an improved communication from the industry to the authorities and the public. As a recent example, the Holland-Italy natural gas transmission pipeline is demonstrated, where this method was successfully employed. Although this pipeline traverses densely populated areas in Switzerland, using this established communication method, the risk problems could be solved without delaying the planning process. (authors)

Introduction of the risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Campon, G.; Martinez, I.

2013-01-01

An introduction of risks analysis was given in the exposition which main issues were: food innocuousness, world, regional and national food context,change of paradigms, health definition, risk, codex, standardization, food chain role, trade agreement, codex alimentarius, food transmission diseases cost impact

Predicting Factors of Worker Behavior for Proper Working Posture Based on Planed Behavior Theory

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

E Mohammadi Zeydi

2008-12-01

Introduction & Objective: Injuries resulting from ignoring proper working posture especially in employees who sitting at workplace for more than of working hours are costly, and create significant pain and discomfort. Decreasing of these injuries is most effectively accomplished through the application of ergonomic design principles. Sometimes, however, barriers (technical and economic preclude ergonomic improvement and, consequently, some organizations rely on the use of proper sitting techniques and maintaining proper working posture as a major control strategy during workday. The problem, however, is that these process performing is inconsistent and managers have a difficult time motivating use of these techniques. The main aim of this study was to understand the factors driving proper working posture among employees. Materials & Methods: This study used the theory of planned behavior to predict upright working posture maintenance among 222 of assembling, machinery and printing line’s employees at a Qazvin Alborz industrial town manufacturing organization. Structural equation modeling, explanatory and confirmatory factor analysis were employed to analyze relationships among constructs. Results: Results revealed that attitude (p< 0.05, β= 0.53 and intention (p< 0.05, β= 0.46 were the strongest predictors of proper working posture maintenance behavior. Perceived behavior control, to a lesser degree, were also important influences on intention (p< 0.05, β= 0.34 and behavior (p< 0.05, β= 0.28. Subjective norms did not surface as effective direct predictors of upright working posture maintenance, but did affect behavior and intent via mediating factors (attitudes subjective norms and perceived behavioral control. Finally, the TPB was supported as an effective model explaining upright working posture maintenance, and had potential application for many other safety-related behaviors. Conclusion: results of this study emphasis on considering factors such as

Risk Analysis Group annual progress report 1984

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1985-06-01

The activities of the Risk Analysis Group at Risoe during 1984 are presented. These include descriptions in some detail of work on general development topics and risk analysis performed as contractor. (author)

Properly pricing country risk: a model for pricing long-term fundamental risk applied to central and eastern European countries

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Debora Revoltella

2010-09-01

Full Text Available The private sector has used proxies such as sovereign credit ratings, spreads on sovereign bonds and spreads on sovereign credit default swaps (CDS to gauge country risk, even though these measures are pricing the risk of default of government bonds, which is different from the risks facing private participants in cross-border financing. Under normal market conditions, the CDS spreads are a very useful source of information on country risk. However, the recent crisis has shown that the CDS spreads might lead to some underpricing or overpricing of fundamentals in the case of excessively low or excessively high risk aversion. In this paper we develop an alternative measure of country risk that extracts the volatile, short-term market sentiment component from the sover eign CDS spread in order to improve its reliability in periods of market distress. We show that adverse market sentiment was a key driver of the sharp increase in sovereign CDS spreads of central and eastern European (CEE countries during the most severe phase of the crisis. We also show that our measure of country risk sheds some light on the observed stability of cross-border bank flows to CEE banks during the crisis.

Existential risks: exploring a robust risk reduction strategy.

Science.gov (United States)

Jebari, Karim

2015-06-01

A small but growing number of studies have aimed to understand, assess and reduce existential risks, or risks that threaten the continued existence of mankind. However, most attention has been focused on known and tangible risks. This paper proposes a heuristic for reducing the risk of black swan extinction events. These events are, as the name suggests, stochastic and unforeseen when they happen. Decision theory based on a fixed model of possible outcomes cannot properly deal with this kind of event. Neither can probabilistic risk analysis. This paper will argue that the approach that is referred to as engineering safety could be applied to reducing the risk from black swan extinction events. It will also propose a conceptual sketch of how such a strategy may be implemented: isolated, self-sufficient, and continuously manned underground refuges. Some characteristics of such refuges are also described, in particular the psychosocial aspects. Furthermore, it is argued that this implementation of the engineering safety strategy safety barriers would be effective and plausible and could reduce the risk of an extinction event in a wide range of possible (known and unknown) scenarios. Considering the staggering opportunity cost of an existential catastrophe, such strategies ought to be explored more vigorously.

What can Gaia proper motions tell us about Milky Way dwarf galaxies?

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Jin, S.; Helmi, A.; Breddels, M.

We present a proper-motion study on models of the dwarf spheroidal galaxy Sculptor, based on the predicted proper-motion accuracy of Gaia measurements. Gaia will measure proper motions of several hundreds of stars for a Sculptor-like system. Even with an uncertainty on the proper motion of order 1.5

5 CFR 2635.205 - Proper disposition of prohibited gifts.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... 5 Administrative Personnel 3 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Proper disposition of prohibited gifts... STANDARDS OF ETHICAL CONDUCT FOR EMPLOYEES OF THE EXECUTIVE BRANCH Gifts From Outside Sources § 2635.205 Proper disposition of prohibited gifts. (a) An employee who has received a gift that cannot be accepted...

Risk-based decision analysis for groundwater operable units

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chiaramonte, G.R.

1995-01-01

This document proposes a streamlined approach and methodology for performing risk assessment in support of interim remedial measure (IRM) decisions involving the remediation of contaminated groundwater on the Hanford Site. This methodology, referred to as ''risk-based decision analysis,'' also supports the specification of target cleanup volumes and provides a basis for design and operation of the groundwater remedies. The risk-based decision analysis can be completed within a short time frame and concisely documented. The risk-based decision analysis is more versatile than the qualitative risk assessment (QRA), because it not only supports the need for IRMs, but also provides criteria for defining the success of the IRMs and provides the risk-basis for decisions on final remedies. For these reasons, it is proposed that, for groundwater operable units, the risk-based decision analysis should replace the more elaborate, costly, and time-consuming QRA

How to Perform an Ethical Risk Analysis (eRA).

Science.gov (United States)

Hansson, Sven Ove

2018-02-26

Ethical analysis is often needed in the preparation of policy decisions on risk. A three-step method is proposed for performing an ethical risk analysis (eRA). In the first step, the people concerned are identified and categorized in terms of the distinct but compatible roles of being risk-exposed, a beneficiary, or a decisionmaker. In the second step, a more detailed classification of roles and role combinations is performed, and ethically problematic role combinations are identified. In the third step, further ethical deliberation takes place, with an emphasis on individual risk-benefit weighing, distributional analysis, rights analysis, and power analysis. Ethical issues pertaining to subsidiary risk roles, such as those of experts and journalists, are also treated in this phase. An eRA should supplement, not replace, a traditional risk analysis that puts emphasis on the probabilities and severities of undesirable events but does not cover ethical issues such as agency, interpersonal relationships, and justice. © 2018 Society for Risk Analysis.

Navigation safety and risk assessment challenges in the High North

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Marchenko, N.A.; Borch, O.J.; Andreassen, N.

2017-01-01

marine accidents. Therefore, in this study a mostly qualitative analysis and expert judgement is the basis for the risk assessments. Implications for the emergency preparedness system of the region are discussed. The consequences of incidents depend on the incident type, scale and location,....... In this paper we look into the risks of accidents in the Atlantic Arctic based on previous ship accidents and the changes in maritime activity. The risk has to be assessed to ensure a proper level of response in emergency situations. As accidents are rare, there are limited statistics available for Arctic...

Globular Clusters: Absolute Proper Motions and Galactic Orbits

Science.gov (United States)

Chemel, A. A.; Glushkova, E. V.; Dambis, A. K.; Rastorguev, A. S.; Yalyalieva, L. N.; Klinichev, A. D.

2018-04-01

We cross-match objects from several different astronomical catalogs to determine the absolute proper motions of stars within the 30-arcmin radius fields of 115 Milky-Way globular clusters with the accuracy of 1-2 mas yr-1. The proper motions are based on positional data recovered from the USNO-B1, 2MASS, URAT1, ALLWISE, UCAC5, and Gaia DR1 surveys with up to ten positions spanning an epoch difference of up to about 65 years, and reduced to Gaia DR1 TGAS frame using UCAC5 as the reference catalog. Cluster members are photometrically identified by selecting horizontal- and red-giant branch stars on color-magnitude diagrams, and the mean absolute proper motions of the clusters with a typical formal error of about 0.4 mas yr-1 are computed by averaging the proper motions of selected members. The inferred absolute proper motions of clusters are combined with available radial-velocity data and heliocentric distance estimates to compute the cluster orbits in terms of the Galactic potential models based on Miyamoto and Nagai disk, Hernquist spheroid, and modified isothermal dark-matter halo (axisymmetric model without a bar) and the same model + rotating Ferre's bar (non-axisymmetric). Five distant clusters have higher-than-escape velocities, most likely due to large errors of computed transversal velocities, whereas the computed orbits of all other clusters remain bound to the Galaxy. Unlike previously published results, we find the bar to affect substantially the orbits of most of the clusters, even those at large Galactocentric distances, bringing appreciable chaotization, especially in the portions of the orbits close to the Galactic center, and stretching out the orbits of some of the thick-disk clusters.

Analytic Bayesian solution of the two-stage poisson-type problem in probabilistic risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Frohner, F.H.

1985-01-01

The basic purpose of probabilistic risk analysis is to make inferences about the probabilities of various postulated events, with an account of all relevant information such as prior knowledge and operating experience with the specific system under study, as well as experience with other similar systems. Estimation of the failure rate of a Poisson-type system leads to an especially simple Bayesian solution in closed form if the prior probabilty implied by the invariance properties of the problem is properly taken into account. This basic simplicity persists if a more realistic prior, representing order of magnitude knowledge of the rate parameter, is employed instead. Moreover, the more realistic prior allows direct incorporation of experience gained from other similar systems, without need to postulate a statistical model for an underlying ensemble. The analytic formalism is applied to actual nuclear reactor data

RISK ANALYSIS IN INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY AND COMMUNICATION OUTSOURCING

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Edmir Parada Vasques Prado

2011-12-01

Full Text Available This research aims at evaluating the risk analysis process in Information Technology and Communication (ICT outsourcing conducted by organizations of the private sector. The research is characterized by being a descriptive, quantitative and transversal type study, which was used the survey method. Data were collected through questionnaire, the sample is not random and we used a convenience sampling process. The research made contributions to understanding the risk analysis process in ICT services outsourcing, and identified statistically significant relationships between risk analysis, organization's size and its industry, and between risk analysis and diversity of outsourced services

Risk-benefit analysis and public policy: a bibliography

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Clark, E.M.; Van Horn, A.J.

1976-11-01

Risk-benefit analysis has been implicitly practiced whenever decision-makers are confronted with decisions involving risks to life, health, or to the environment. Various methodologies have been developed to evaluate relevant criteria and to aid in assessing the impacts of alternative projects. Among these have been cost-benefit analysis, which has been widely used for project evaluation. However, in many cases it has been difficult to assign dollar costs to those criteria involving risks and benefits which are not now assigned explicit monetary values in our economic system. Hence, risk-benefit analysis has evolved to become more than merely an extension of cost-benefit analysis, and many methods have been applied to examine the trade-offs between risks and benefits. In addition, new scientific and statistical techniques have been developed for assessing current and future risks. The 950 references included in this bibliography are meant to suggest the breadth of those methodologies which have been applied to decisions involving risk.

Risk-benefit analysis and public policy: a bibliography

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Clark, E.M.; Van Horn, A.J.

1976-11-01

Risk-benefit analysis has been implicitly practiced whenever decision-makers are confronted with decisions involving risks to life, health, or to the environment. Various methodologies have been developed to evaluate relevant criteria and to aid in assessing the impacts of alternative projects. Among these have been cost-benefit analysis, which has been widely used for project evaluation. However, in many cases it has been difficult to assign dollar costs to those criteria involving risks and benefits which are not now assigned explicit monetary values in our economic system. Hence, risk-benefit analysis has evolved to become more than merely an extension of cost-benefit analysis, and many methods have been applied to examine the trade-offs between risks and benefits. In addition, new scientific and statistical techniques have been developed for assessing current and future risks. The 950 references included in this bibliography are meant to suggest the breadth of those methodologies which have been applied to decisions involving risk

Characterizations of proper actions

Science.gov (United States)

Biller, Harald

2004-03-01

Three kinds of proper actions of increasing strength are defined. We prove that the three definitions specialize to the definitions by Bourbaki, by Palais and by Baum, Connes and Higson in their respective settings. The third of these, which thus turns out to be the strongest, originally only concerns actions of second countable locally compact groups on metrizable spaces. In this situation, it is shown to coincide with the other two definitions if the total space locally has the Lindelöf property and the orbit space is regular.

Asteroid proper elements from an analytical second order theory

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Knezevic, Z.; Milani, A.

1989-01-01

The authors have computed by a fully analytical method a new set of proper elements for 3322 numbered main-belt asteroids. They are presented in the following format: asteroid number, proper semimajor axis (AU), proper eccentricity, sine of proper inclination and quality code (see below). This new set is significantly more accurate than all the previous ones at low to moderate eccentricities and inclinations, and especially near the main mean-motion resonances (e.g., the Themis region). This is because the short periodic perturbations are rigorously removed, and the main effects of the second-order (containing the square of the ratio [the mass of Jupiter/mass of the Sun]) are accounted for. Effects arising from the terms in the Hamiltonian of degree up to four in the eccentricity and inclination of both the asteroid and Jupiter are taken into account, and the fundamental frequencies g (for the perihelion) and s(for the node) of the asteroid are computed with a interative algorithm consistent with the basic results of modern dynamics (e.g., Kolmogorov-Arnold-Moser theory)

Flood risk analysis model in the village of St. George/Danube Delta

Science.gov (United States)

Armas, I.; Dumitrascu, S.; Nistoran, D.

2009-04-01

the Danube Delta. The study area is situated at the mouth of the St. George river branch, which suffered a series of interventions resulting with the shortening with 31 km (period 1984-1988). As a direct result, the medium speed of the water grew along with the both liquid and solid flows. In fact, this is only an example of the human activity that took place in the Danube Delta starting with the second half of the last century that influenced the hydrological system for a better use of the natural resources offered by the delta. The study is structured in two stages: the analysis of the hydrological hazard together with the simulation of a series of scenarios concerning floods at various flows and the risk analysis, expressed in the shape of the calculus of the material damage. In the study of the hazard, the methodology was based on the analysis of water depth and velocity maps, done in various flow scenarios, to which were added correlations between flood risk maps with satellite pictures, cadastral plans and field data by using GIS functions. In addition, the field investigations conducted in September 2008 focused on collecting the data necessary in the assessment of the buildings. The observations that synthesize the features of each construction included in the analysis were also stored in ArcGis in the shape of a table of attributes. This information reveals the indicators used in the analysis of the vulnerability of the residences: number of floors, height, construction type, infrastructure and price per property. The analysis revealed an increased degree of the area visibility, pointing out not only certain sectors affected by floods, but also the problems that occurred at the more detailed level of the residences. In addition, the cartographic material plays also an important part in the development of a proper public awareness strategy.

Methods for Risk Analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alverbro, Karin

2010-01-01

Many decision-making situations today affect humans and the environment. In practice, many such decisions are made without an overall view and prioritise one or other of the two areas. Now and then these two areas of regulation come into conflict, e.g. the best alternative as regards environmental considerations is not always the best from a human safety perspective and vice versa. This report was prepared within a major project with the aim of developing a framework in which both the environmental aspects and the human safety aspects are integrated, and decisions can be made taking both fields into consideration. The safety risks have to be analysed in order to be successfully avoided and one way of doing this is to use different kinds of risk analysis methods. There is an abundance of existing methods to choose from and new methods are constantly being developed. This report describes some of the risk analysis methods currently available for analysing safety and examines the relationships between them. The focus here is mainly on human safety aspects

The use of a basic safety investment model in a practical risk management context

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Aven, Terje; Hiriart, Yolande

2011-01-01

We consider a basic model in economic safety analysis: a firm is willing to invest an amount x in safety measures to avoid an accident A, which in the case of occurrence, leads to a loss of size L. The probability of an accident is a function of x. The optimal value of x is determined by minimizing the expected costs. In the paper, we re-examine this model by adopting a practical risk/safety management perspective. We question how this model can be used for guiding the firm and regulators in determining the proper level of investment in safety. Attention is given to issues like how to determine the probability of an accident and how to take into account uncertainties that extend beyond the expected value. It is concluded that the model, with suitable extensions and if properly implemented, provides a valuable decision support tool. By focusing on investment levels and stimulating thereby the generation of alternative risk-reducing measures, the model is considered particularly useful in risk reduction (ALARP) processes. - Highlights: → It is shown how to use a basic investment model in a practical risk management setting. → The model may be a valuable decision support tool if properly implemented. → It guides decision makers on risk reduction and how to determine what is ALARP. → The model stimulates the generation of alternative risk-reducing measures.

Analysis of risk perception of teletherapy in radiotherapy services of Rio de Janeiro city, RJ, Brazil; Analise da percepcao de risco da teleterapia dos servicos de radioterapia da regiao metropolitana do Rio de Janeiro

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Burgos, Adam F.; Paiva, Eduardo de [Instituto de Radioprotecao e Dosimetria (IRD/CNEN-RJ), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Souza, Roberto S. de, E-mail: adam@bolsista.ird.gov.br [Instituto Nacional de Cancer (INCA), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Programa de Qualidade em Radioterapia

2015-12-15

Currently there are few applications on the risk analysis procedures related to radiation therapy, especially in the practice of radiotherapy. The objective of this study was to analyze the perception of risk levels present in the practice of teletherapy (only the use of linear accelerators), through a form based on the risk matrix concept and a database (SEVRRA) containing information about the processes related to routine teletherapy. Was delivered to a medical physicist for each service, a form containing information relating to teletherapy procedure and an annex indicating how to fill it properly. The results show that, according to the opinion of 16 medical physicists participants, six of these analyzes showed a prioritized risk percentage above 50%, other five had a risk of prioritized percentage between 0 and 50%, and the remainder had a risk percentage prioritized null. Two steps groups had the highest incidence of cases classified with high and very high risk: records and treatment planning group and equipment group. It was then possible to find the most risk processes these steps groups. Finally, we performed an analysis of the effectiveness of the controls present in the proposed form. The four most incidents controls, three of them had a percentage efficiency above 80%, and viable its continuous use in the analyzed services, as well as serving as a recommendation for use in other services not analyzed. This study showed that, although there are considerable histories of accidents for teletherapy procedure, you can not only identify the risks of higher expression but also mitigate them, based on actions and appropriate recommendations for each case analyzed properly. (author)

Flood Risk Assessment Based On Security Deficit Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Beck, J.; Metzger, R.; Hingray, B.; Musy, A.

Risk is a human perception: a given risk may be considered as acceptable or unac- ceptable depending on the group that has to face that risk. Flood risk analysis of- ten estimates economic losses from damages, but neglects the question of accept- able/unacceptable risk. With input from land use managers, politicians and other stakeholders, risk assessment based on security deficit analysis determines objects with unacceptable risk and their degree of security deficit. Such a risk assessment methodology, initially developed by the Swiss federal authorities, is illustrated by its application on a reach of the Alzette River (Luxembourg) in the framework of the IRMA-SPONGE FRHYMAP project. Flood risk assessment always involves a flood hazard analysis, an exposed object vulnerability analysis, and an analysis combing the results of these two previous analyses. The flood hazard analysis was done with the quasi-2D hydraulic model FldPln to produce flood intensity maps. Flood intensity was determined by the water height and velocity. Object data for the vulnerability analysis, provided by the Luxembourg government, were classified according to their potential damage. Potential damage is expressed in terms of direct, human life and secondary losses. A thematic map was produced to show the object classification. Protection goals were then attributed to the object classes. Protection goals are assigned in terms of an acceptable flood intensity for a certain flood frequency. This is where input from land use managers and politicians comes into play. The perception of risk in the re- gion or country influences the protection goal assignment. Protection goals as used in Switzerland were used in this project. Thematic maps showing the protection goals of each object in the case study area for a given flood frequency were produced. Com- parison between an object's protection goal and the intensity of the flood that touched the object determine the acceptability of the risk and the

Anal sexual experience and HIV risk awareness among female sex workers in Dire Dawa, eastern Ethiopia.

Science.gov (United States)

Mazeingia, Yohannes Teka; Olijjira, Lemessa; Dessie, Yadeta

2017-01-01

Female sex workers have been disproportionately affected with HIV and anal sexual experience elevate their vulnerability. Anal intercourse has more risk of HIV transmission than vaginal intercourse for receptors that coupled with low condom and proper lubricant use behavior during anal sex. Besides majority of them did not understand HIV transmission risk of anal intercourse. In Ethiopia, studies on anal sexual experience is almost none existent, so the purpose of this study is to explored anal sexual experience and HIV transmission risk awareness among female sex worker in Dire Dawa, Eastern Ethiopia. Qualitative study with thematic analysis approach was conducted among 18 female sex workers and recruitment of study participants performed until saturation of information. The principal investigator conducted in-depth interviews using local language (Amharic) and it was recorded on audio recorder. Tape recorded data was transcribed and translated to English and entered into open code version 3.4 for coding and theme identification. Data collection conducted simultaneously with data analysis. Female sex workers practiced anal sex for different themes like financial influence, coercion, intentionally, peer pressure and as a sign of intimacy and love. Coercion, negative attitudes, poor awareness about HIV transmission risks of anal sex and protection capacity of condom and proper lubricants are the identified themes for not using condom and proper lubricants during anal sex by female sex workers. Inaccessibility and unavailability of health services for issues related to anal sex was the core reason for female sex workers' misperception and risk anal sexual experience. Female sex workers practiced anal sex without risk reduction approaches and they did not understand exacerbated risk of anal sex to HIV transmission. Stakeholders including ministry of health need to incorporate potential awareness raising tasks and programs about risk of anal sex and methods of risk

Analysis and management of risks experienced in tunnel construction

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cagatay Pamukcu

2015-12-01

Full Text Available In this study, first of all, the definitions of "risk", "risk analysis", "risk assessment" and "risk management" were made to avoid any confusions about these terms and significance of risk analysis and management in engineering projects was emphasized. Then, both qualitative and quantitative risk analysis techniques were mentioned and within the scope of the study, Event Tree Analysis method was selected in order to analyze the risks regarding TBM (Tunnel Boring Machine operations in tunnel construction. After all hazards that would be encountered during tunnel construction by TBM method had been investigated, those hazards were undergoing a Preliminary Hazard Analysis to sort out and prioritize the risks with high scores. When the risk scores were taken into consideration, it was seen that the hazards with high risk scores could be classified into 4 groups which are excavation + support induced accidents, accidents stemming from geologic conditions, auxiliary works, and project contract. According to these four classified groups of initiating events, Event Tree Analysis was conducted by taking into care 4 countermeasures apart from each other. Finally, the quantitative and qualitative consequences of Event Tree Analyses, which were undertaken for all initiating events, were investigated and interpreted together by making comparisons and referring to previous studies.

How Students Learn from Multiple Contexts and Definitions: Proper Time as a Coordination Class

Science.gov (United States)

Levrini, Olivia; diSessa, Andrea A.

2008-01-01

This article provides an empirical analysis of a single classroom episode in which students reveal difficulties with the concept of proper time in special relativity but slowly make progress in improving their understanding. The theoretical framework used is "coordination class theory," which is an evolving model of concepts and conceptual change.…

Securing radioactive sources through a proper management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mourao, Rogerio Pimenta

2009-01-01

The safety and security of radioactive sources have become a hot issue for the nuclear community in the last two decades. The Goiania accident in Brazil and the September 11th attack alerted governments and nuclear agencies around the world to the vulnerability of the thousands of disused radioactive sources ill-stored or misplaced in a myriad of ways, especially in countries with less developed infra-structure. Once the threat of environmental contamination or malevolent use of these sources became clear, the International Atomic Energy Agency and the American Government spawned initiatives to reduce this risk, basically stimulating the proper conditioning of the sources and, whenever possible, seeking their repatriation to the countries of origin. Since 1996 Brazil has been participating actively in this effort, having carried out hands-on operations to condition old radium sources in Latin American and Caribbean countries and also repatriated its own neutron sources to the United States. A new operation is presently being organized: the reconditioning of the high activity sources contained in teletherapy units stored in the country using a mobile hot cell developed in South Africa. Also an agreement is being negotiated between the US National Nuclear Security Agency and the Brazilian CNEN to repatriate hundreds of radioactive gauges presently stored at CNEN's source storage buildings. (author)

Dynamical systems of proper characteristic 0

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ahmad, K.H.; Hamoui, A.

1991-07-01

Flows with orbits of proper characteristics 0 exhibit recurrent behaviour, a feature of basic importance in the description of their dynamics. Here, we analyze flows with such orbits relating them with recurrent flows and with flows that exhibit orbital, Poisson or Lagrange stability. (author). 11 refs

Strategy Guideline: Proper Water Heater Selection

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hoeschele, M. [Alliance for Residential Building Innovation, Davis, CA (United States); Springer, D. [Alliance for Residential Building Innovation, Davis, CA (United States); German, A. [Alliance for Residential Building Innovation, Davis, CA (United States); Staller, J. [Alliance for Residential Building Innovation, Davis, CA (United States); Zhang, Y. [Alliance for Residential Building Innovation, Davis, CA (United States)

2015-04-01

This Strategy Guideline on proper water heater selection was developed by the Building America team Alliance for Residential Building Innovation to provide step-by-step procedures for evaluating preferred cost-effective options for energy efficient water heater alternatives based on local utility rates, climate, and anticipated loads.

Strategy Guideline. Proper Water Heater Selection

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hoeschele, M. [Alliance for Residential Building Innovation (ARBI), Davis, CA (United States); Springer, D. [Alliance for Residential Building Innovation (ARBI), Davis, CA (United States); German, A. [Alliance for Residential Building Innovation (ARBI), Davis, CA (United States); Staller, J. [Alliance for Residential Building Innovation (ARBI), Davis, CA (United States); Zhang, Y. [Alliance for Residential Building Innovation (ARBI), Davis, CA (United States)

2015-04-09

This Strategy Guideline on proper water heater selection was developed by the Building America team Alliance for Residential Building Innovation to provide step-by-step procedures for evaluating preferred cost-effective options for energy efficient water heater alternatives based on local utility rates, climate, and anticipated loads.

49 CFR 260.17 - Credit risk premium analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... 49 Transportation 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Credit risk premium analysis. 260.17 Section 260... Financial Assistance § 260.17 Credit risk premium analysis. (a) When Federal appropriations are not available to cover the total subsidy cost, the Administrator will determine the Credit Risk Premium...

Mass estimates from stellar proper motions: the mass of ω Centauri

Science.gov (United States)

D'Souza, Richard; Rix, Hans-Walter

2013-03-01

We lay out and apply methods to use proper motions of individual kinematic tracers for estimating the dynamical mass of star clusters. We first describe a simple projected mass estimator and then develop an approach that evaluates directly the likelihood of the discrete kinematic data given the model predictions. Those predictions may come from any dynamical modelling approach, and we implement an analytic King model, a spherical isotropic Jeans equation model and an axisymmetric, anisotropic Jeans equation model. This maximum likelihood modelling (MLM) provides a framework for a model-data comparison, and a resulting mass estimate, which accounts explicitly for the discrete nature of the data for individual stars, the varying error bars for proper motions of differing signal-to-noise ratio, and for data incompleteness. Both of these two methods are evaluated for their practicality and are shown to provide an unbiased and robust estimate of the cluster mass. We apply these approaches to the enigmatic globular cluster ω Centauri, combining the proper motion from van Leeuwen et al. with improved photometric cluster membership probabilities. We show that all mass estimates based on spherical isotropic models yield (4.55 ± 0.1) × 106 M⊙[D/5.5 ± 0.2 kpc]3, where our modelling allows us to show how the statistical precision of this estimate improves as more proper motion data of lower signal-to-noise ratio are included. MLM predictions, based on an anisotropic axisymmetric Jeans model, indicate for ω Cen that the inclusion of anisotropies is not important for the mass estimates, but that accounting for the flattening is: flattened models imply (4.05 ± 0.1) × 106 M⊙[D/5.5 ± 0.2 kpc]3, 10 per cent lower than when restricting the analysis to a spherical model. The best current distance estimates imply an additional uncertainty in the mass estimate of 12 per cent.

Inorganic Contaminants Associated with the Extraction of Unconventional Gas.Initial Analysis and Risk Assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Xu, L.; Hurtado, A.; Recreo, F.; Eguilior, S.

2015-01-01

The latest technological developments in horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing are driving a commercial scale extraction of unconventional fossil fuels in various regions of the world. Europe's position in relation to the exploitation of unconventional fossil fuels is this has to be made under a paradigm of coherence between the technical and economic-financial aspects and environments and public trust, which are essential and which will eventually would enable the viability of exploiting these resources.This requires, by those decision makers, both industry and regulators, a comprehensive management of the risks associated with these exploitations, which implies the need to develop tools of analysis and assessment to environmental impact and risk. The exploitation of unconventional hydrocarbons in formations of shale requires the creation of a network of artificial fractures to connect with production well Horizontal wells are drilled for this purpose and go on for several km into the shale formation. During drilling, a mixture of oil, gas and formation water is pumped to the surface. The water is separated from oil and gas in tanks or pools. The flowback and produced water contains different kinds of chemicals in varying concentrations: salt, oil and other organic compounds, suspended solids, bacteria, naturally occurring radioactive elements (NORM), and any element injected with the fracturing fluid. The concentration of these elements in the water may be increased due to the treatments suffered by flowback and produced water for disposal. Due to the large variability of contaminants in the flowback and produced water and the potentially large volumes involved, the determination of the its composition is essential for proper management of them and to prevent health, safety and environmental risks. This report covers the risk analysis of an unconventional gas extraction project, the initial assessment of the risks associated with the use and management of

Risk of persistent high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion after electrosurgical excisional treatment with positive margins: a meta-analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Caroline Alves de Oliveira

Full Text Available CONTEXT AND OBJECTIVE: Even if precursor lesions of cervical cancer are properly treated, there is a risk of persistence or recurrence. The aim here was to quantify the risks of persistence of high-grade intraepithelial squamous lesions, one and two years after cervical electrosurgical excisional treatment with positive margins. DESIGN AND SETTING: Systematic review of the literature and meta-analysis at Instituto Fernandes Figueira. METHODS: This meta-analysis was on studies published between January 1989 and July 2009 that were identified in Medline, Scopus, Embase, Cochrane, SciELO, Lilacs, Adolec, Medcarib, Paho, Wholis, Popline, ISI Web of Science and Sigle. Articles were selected if they were cohort studies on electrosurgical excisional treatment of high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions with a minimum follow-up of one year, a histopathological outcome of persistence of these lesions and a small risk of bias. RESULTS: The search identified 7,066 articles and another 21 in the reference lists of these papers. After applying the selection and exclusion criteria, only four articles were found to have extractable data. The risk of persistence of high-grade intraepithelial lesions after one year was 11.36 times greater (95% confidence interval, CI: 5.529-23.379, P < 0.0001 in patients with positive margins and after two years, was four times greater (95% CI: 0.996-16.164, although without statistical significance. CONCLUSION: This meta-analysis confirms the importance of positive margins as an indicator of incomplete treatment after the first year of follow-up and highlights the need for appropriately chosen electrosurgical techniques based on disease location and extent, with close surveillance of these patients.

Quantifying introgression risk with realistic population genetics.

Science.gov (United States)

Ghosh, Atiyo; Meirmans, Patrick G; Haccou, Patsy

2012-12-07

Introgression is the permanent incorporation of genes from the genome of one population into another. This can have severe consequences, such as extinction of endemic species, or the spread of transgenes. Quantification of the risk of introgression is an important component of genetically modified crop regulation. Most theoretical introgression studies aimed at such quantification disregard one or more of the most important factors concerning introgression: realistic genetical mechanisms, repeated invasions and stochasticity. In addition, the use of linkage as a risk mitigation strategy has not been studied properly yet with genetic introgression models. Current genetic introgression studies fail to take repeated invasions and demographic stochasticity into account properly, and use incorrect measures of introgression risk that can be manipulated by arbitrary choices. In this study, we present proper methods for risk quantification that overcome these difficulties. We generalize a probabilistic risk measure, the so-called hazard rate of introgression, for application to introgression models with complex genetics and small natural population sizes. We illustrate the method by studying the effects of linkage and recombination on transgene introgression risk at different population sizes.

Risk Management And Organisational Profitability | Ukandu ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Findings revealed that certain measures like: risk reduction/prevention, risk avoidance, risk sharing, risk retention, risk modification, etc. could be adopted to reduce the impact of risk on production. The paper posits that if the proper risk control measures and effective planning techniques are applied, the impact of risk ...

Computational Aspects of Dam Risk Analysis: Findings and Challenges

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ignacio Escuder-Bueno

2016-09-01

Full Text Available In recent years, risk analysis techniques have proved to be a useful tool to inform dam safety management. This paper summarizes the outcomes of three themes related to dam risk analysis discussed in the Benchmark Workshops organized by the International Commission on Large Dams Technical Committee on “Computational Aspects of Analysis and Design of Dams.” In the 2011 Benchmark Workshop, estimation of the probability of failure of a gravity dam for the sliding failure mode was discussed. Next, in 2013, the discussion focused on the computational challenges of the estimation of consequences in dam risk analysis. Finally, in 2015, the probability of sliding and overtopping in an embankment was analyzed. These Benchmark Workshops have allowed a complete review of numerical aspects for dam risk analysis, showing that risk analysis methods are a very useful tool to analyze the risk of dam systems, including downstream consequence assessments and the uncertainty of structural models.

Integrating Household Risk Mitigation Behavior in Flood Risk Analysis: An Agent-Based Model Approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Haer, Toon; Botzen, W J Wouter; de Moel, Hans; Aerts, Jeroen C J H

2017-10-01

Recent studies showed that climate change and socioeconomic trends are expected to increase flood risks in many regions. However, in these studies, human behavior is commonly assumed to be constant, which neglects interaction and feedback loops between human and environmental systems. This neglect of human adaptation leads to a misrepresentation of flood risk. This article presents an agent-based model that incorporates human decision making in flood risk analysis. In particular, household investments in loss-reducing measures are examined under three economic decision models: (1) expected utility theory, which is the traditional economic model of rational agents; (2) prospect theory, which takes account of bounded rationality; and (3) a prospect theory model, which accounts for changing risk perceptions and social interactions through a process of Bayesian updating. We show that neglecting human behavior in flood risk assessment studies can result in a considerable misestimation of future flood risk, which is in our case study an overestimation of a factor two. Furthermore, we show how behavior models can support flood risk analysis under different behavioral assumptions, illustrating the need to include the dynamic adaptive human behavior of, for instance, households, insurers, and governments. The method presented here provides a solid basis for exploring human behavior and the resulting flood risk with respect to low-probability/high-impact risks. © 2016 The Authors Risk Analysis published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Risk Analysis.

Putting problem formulation at the forefront of GMO risk analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Tepfer, Mark; Racovita, Monica; Craig, Wendy

2013-01-01

When applying risk assessment and the broader process of risk analysis to decisions regarding the dissemination of genetically modified organisms (GMOs), the process has a tendency to become remarkably complex. Further, as greater numbers of countries consider authorising the large-scale dissemination of GMOs, and as GMOs with more complex traits reach late stages of development, there has been increasing concern about the burden posed by the complexity of risk analysis. We present here an improved approach for GMO risk analysis that gives a central role to problem formulation. Further, the risk analysis strategy has been clarified and simplified in order to make rigorously scientific risk assessment and risk analysis more broadly accessible to diverse stakeholder groups.

Computation of Asteroid Proper Elements on the Grid

Science.gov (United States)

Novakovic, B.; Balaz, A.; Knezevic, Z.; Potocnik, M.

2009-12-01

A procedure of gridification of the computation of asteroid proper orbital elements is described. The need to speed up the time consuming computations and make them more efficient is justified by the large increase of observational data expected from the next generation all sky surveys. We give the basic notion of proper elements and of the contemporary theories and methods used to compute them for different populations of objects. Proper elements for nearly 70,000 asteroids are derived since the beginning of use of the Grid infrastructure for the purpose. The average time for the catalogs update is significantly shortened with respect to the time needed with stand-alone workstations. We also present basics of the Grid computing, the concepts of Grid middleware and its Workload management system. The practical steps we undertook to efficiently gridify our application are described in full detail. We present the results of a comprehensive testing of the performance of different Grid sites, and offer some practical conclusions based on the benchmark results and on our experience. Finally, we propose some possibilities for the future work.

Proper Names in Dialectal Idioms: Stages of Idiomatization

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ekaterina S. Kogan

2014-06-01

Full Text Available The article deals with the functioning of proper names (both personal and place names and their derivatives in dialectal idioms. Based upon the criteria of the establishing of the idiomatic status of word combinations, traditionally used in contemporary lexicology, the author marks out four stages of the entry of units containing proper names and their derivatives into a regional idiomatic inventory: 1 word combinations with figurative meanings and transparent motivation easily decoded by every member of the local community (e. g., naryaditsa kak Anisya Klimovskaya ‘to be slovenly dressed’; 2 word combinations with a proper name localizing a nationally known idiom (e. g., zhelninsky telyonok ‘screaming person’; 3 word combinations including a name with a general meaning (e. g., Masha s Yashey ‘two inseparable persons’; 4 idioms with non-transparent motivation (e. g., tutursky pop ‘cuckoo male’. The analyzed data are retrieved from dialect dictionaries (including those of idioms and notes made by the Ural Federal University Toponymic Expeditions in Kostroma Region in 2011–2013.

Streamlining project delivery through risk analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

2015-08-01

Project delivery is a significant area of concern and is subject to several risks throughout Plan Development : Process (PDP). These risks are attributed to major areas of project development, such as environmental : analysis, right-of-way (ROW) acqu...

Prepayment risk, impact on credit products

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dan Costin NIŢESCU

2012-08-01

Full Text Available Credit pricing is always an important aspect of operations of banks, as loans are generally two thirds of bank assets. Therefore, the study of factors influencing a bank customer behavior and their impact on early repayment of loans may have a significant influence in reducing the risk assumed by such unexpected operations.Objective analysis of prepayment risk is to estimate the probability of repayment to better manage its manifestation. The existence of potential customers that use this option exposes the bank to a number of risks, such as interest rate risk, the maturity mismatch risk and liquidity risk.Proper evaluation and forecasting the evolution of this risk can bring great benefits for a credit institution in the management of loan products and customer relationship: lower risk of over-ensure against fixed rate mortgage, a better management of short-term and long term liquidity needs (thus reducing the risk of over-financing can offer customers more competitive pricing (achieved by reducing funding costs due to better assessment and management of risks involved early repayment.

Multi-criteria decision analysis to select the optimum position and proper field of view of a photosensor

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Doulos, L.; Tsangrassoulis, A.; Topalis, F.V.

2014-01-01

Highlights: • A new methodology for the determination of proper FOV and position of a photosensor is proposed. • Model takes into account illuminance ratio, energy savings and lighting adequacy. • A multiple criteria decision method (ELECTRE) is used to estimate best solution. • A number of simulations were performed in order to clarify the calculation procedure. • An experimental procedure was performed in order to verify the simulation procedure. - Abstract: The lack of knowledge concerning the commissioning of a daylight responsive system constitutes a serious impediment to their widespread use. Furthermore, installation details and tools regarding their photosensor position and field of view (FOV) are insufficient. This paper presents a decision making method capable to estimate the best position of a photosensor on the ceiling and its proper FOV based on multiple criteria analysis. The criteria used are (a) the correlation of the lighting levels between the working plane and the ceiling, (b) the corresponding energy savings and (c) the lighting adequacy which is defined as the percentage for occupied time with total illuminance exceeding design illuminance (i.e 500 lux EN 12464-1, 2011) and is strongly affected by the control algorithm. A number of simulations with variable FOV and position of photosensors were performed in order to clarify the calculation procedure of the proposed methodology. Three different typical room geometries have been used with variable window sizes and orientation. Furthermore a prototype photosensor with variable FOV through the use of a telescopic cylinder was constructed and placed in a scale room (1:10) in order to verify the results of simulations. The verification was based on a set of experimental procedures concerning measurements of the spatial response of the prototype photosensor (for various FOVs) and measurements of ceiling/workplane illuminance inside the scaled room for various combinations of position and

Fast algorithms for finding proper strategies in game trees

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Miltersen, Peter Bro; Sørensen, Troels Bjerre

2008-01-01

We show how to find a normal form proper equilibrium in behavior strategies of a given two-player zero-sum extensive form game with imperfect information but perfect recall. Our algorithm solves a finite sequence of linear programs and runs in polynomial time. For the case of a perfect information...... game, we show how to find a normal form proper equilibrium in linear time by a simple backwards induction procedure....

Reliability and risk analysis methods research plan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1984-10-01

This document presents a plan for reliability and risk analysis methods research to be performed mainly by the Reactor Risk Branch (RRB), Division of Risk Analysis and Operations (DRAO), Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research. It includes those activities of other DRAO branches which are very closely related to those of the RRB. Related or interfacing programs of other divisions, offices and organizations are merely indicated. The primary use of this document is envisioned as an NRC working document, covering about a 3-year period, to foster better coordination in reliability and risk analysis methods development between the offices of Nuclear Regulatory Research and Nuclear Reactor Regulation. It will also serve as an information source for contractors and others to more clearly understand the objectives, needs, programmatic activities and interfaces together with the overall logical structure of the program

Multi-hazard risk analysis for management strategies

Science.gov (United States)

Kappes, M.; Keiler, M.; Bell, R.; Glade, T.

2009-04-01

Risk management is very often operating in a reactive way, responding to an event, instead of proactive starting with risk analysis and building up the whole process of risk evaluation, prevention, event management and regeneration. Since damage and losses from natural hazards raise continuously more and more studies, concepts (e.g. Switzerland or South Tyrol-Bolozano) and software packages (e.g. ARMAGEDOM, HAZUS or RiskScape) are developed to guide, standardize and facilitate the risk analysis. But these approaches focus on different aspects and are mostly closely adapted to the situation (legislation, organization of the administration, specific processes etc.) of the specific country or region. We propose in this study the development of a flexible methodology for multi-hazard risk analysis, identifying the stakeholders and their needs, processes and their characteristics, modeling approaches as well as incoherencies occurring by combining all these different aspects. Based on this concept a flexible software package will be established consisting of ArcGIS as central base and being complemented by various modules for hazard modeling, vulnerability assessment and risk calculation. Not all modules will be developed newly but taken from the current state-of-the-art and connected or integrated into ArcGIS. For this purpose two study sites, Valtellina in Italy and Bacelonnette in France, were chosen and the hazards types debris flows, rockfalls, landslides, avalanches and floods are planned to be included in the tool for a regional multi-hazard risk analysis. Since the central idea of this tool is its flexibility this will only be a first step, in the future further processes and scales can be included and the instrument thus adapted to any study site.

Environmental risk analysis of hazardous material rail transportation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Saat, Mohd Rapik, E-mail: mohdsaat@illinois.edu [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, 1243 Newmark Civil Engineering Laboratory, 205 North Mathews Avenue, Urbana, IL 61801 (United States); Werth, Charles J.; Schaeffer, David [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, 1243 Newmark Civil Engineering Laboratory, 205 North Mathews Avenue, Urbana, IL 61801 (United States); Yoon, Hongkyu [Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM 87123 (United States); Barkan, Christopher P.L. [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, 1243 Newmark Civil Engineering Laboratory, 205 North Mathews Avenue, Urbana, IL 61801 (United States)

2014-01-15

Highlights: • Comprehensive, nationwide risk assessment of hazardous material rail transportation. • Application of a novel environmental (i.e. soil and groundwater) consequence model. • Cleanup cost and total shipment distance are the most significant risk factors. • Annual risk varies from $20,000 to $560,000 for different products. • Provides information on the risk cost associated with specific product shipments. -- Abstract: An important aspect of railroad environmental risk management involves tank car transportation of hazardous materials. This paper describes a quantitative, environmental risk analysis of rail transportation of a group of light, non-aqueous-phase liquid (LNAPL) chemicals commonly transported by rail in North America. The Hazardous Materials Transportation Environmental Consequence Model (HMTECM) was used in conjunction with a geographic information system (GIS) analysis of environmental characteristics to develop probabilistic estimates of exposure to different spill scenarios along the North American rail network. The risk analysis incorporated the estimated clean-up cost developed using the HMTECM, route-specific probability distributions of soil type and depth to groundwater, annual traffic volume, railcar accident rate, and tank car safety features, to estimate the nationwide annual risk of transporting each product. The annual risk per car-mile (car-km) and per ton-mile (ton-km) was also calculated to enable comparison between chemicals and to provide information on the risk cost associated with shipments of these products. The analysis and the methodology provide a quantitative approach that will enable more effective management of the environmental risk of transporting hazardous materials.

Environmental risk analysis of hazardous material rail transportation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Saat, Mohd Rapik; Werth, Charles J.; Schaeffer, David; Yoon, Hongkyu; Barkan, Christopher P.L.

2014-01-01

Highlights: • Comprehensive, nationwide risk assessment of hazardous material rail transportation. • Application of a novel environmental (i.e. soil and groundwater) consequence model. • Cleanup cost and total shipment distance are the most significant risk factors. • Annual risk varies from $20,000 to $560,000 for different products. • Provides information on the risk cost associated with specific product shipments. -- Abstract: An important aspect of railroad environmental risk management involves tank car transportation of hazardous materials. This paper describes a quantitative, environmental risk analysis of rail transportation of a group of light, non-aqueous-phase liquid (LNAPL) chemicals commonly transported by rail in North America. The Hazardous Materials Transportation Environmental Consequence Model (HMTECM) was used in conjunction with a geographic information system (GIS) analysis of environmental characteristics to develop probabilistic estimates of exposure to different spill scenarios along the North American rail network. The risk analysis incorporated the estimated clean-up cost developed using the HMTECM, route-specific probability distributions of soil type and depth to groundwater, annual traffic volume, railcar accident rate, and tank car safety features, to estimate the nationwide annual risk of transporting each product. The annual risk per car-mile (car-km) and per ton-mile (ton-km) was also calculated to enable comparison between chemicals and to provide information on the risk cost associated with shipments of these products. The analysis and the methodology provide a quantitative approach that will enable more effective management of the environmental risk of transporting hazardous materials

Spatiotemporal multiscaling analysis of impurity transport in plasma turbulence using proper orthogonal decomposition

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Futatani, S.; Benkadda, S.; Del-Castillo-Negrete, D.

2009-01-01

The spatiotemporal multiscale dynamics of the turbulent transport of impurities is studied in the context of the collisional drift wave turbulence. Two turbulence regimes are considered: a quasihydrodynamic regime and a quasiadiabatic regime. The impurity is assumed to be a passive scalar advected by the corresponding ExB turbulent flow in the presence of diffusion. Two mixing scenarios are studied: a freely decaying case, and a forced case in which the scalar is forced by an externally imposed gradient. The results of the direct numerical simulations are analyzed using proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) techniques. The multiscale analysis is based on a space-time separable POD of the impurity field. The low rank spatial POD eigenfunctions capture the large scale coherent structures and the high rank eigenfunctions capture the small scale fluctuations. The temporal evolution at each scale is dictated by the corresponding temporal POD eigenfunctions. Contrary to the decaying case in which the POD spectrum decays fast, the spectrum in the forced case is relatively flat. The most striking difference between these two mixing scenarios is in the temporal dynamics of the small scale structures. In the decaying case the POD reveals the presence of 'bursty' dynamics in which successively small (high POD rank) scales are intermittently activated during the mixing process. On the other hand, in the forced simulations the temporal dynamics exhibits stationary fluctuations. Spatial intermittency or 'patchiness' in the mixing process characterizes the distribution of the passive tracer in the decaying quasihydrodynamic regime. In particular, in this case the probability distribution function of the low rank POD spatial reconstruction error is non-Gaussian. The spatiotemporal POD scales exhibit a diffusive-type scaling in the quasiadiabatic regime. However, this scaling seems to be absent in the quasihydrodynamic regime that shows no scaling (in the decaying case) or two

Angiographic manifestation and transcatheter arterial embolization of proper esophageal artery in hemoptysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jiang Sen; Zhu Xiaohua; Sun Xiwen; Zhi Wenxiang; Jie Bing; You Zhengqian; Yu Dong; Peng Gang

2008-01-01

Objective: To investigate the angiographic manifestation of the proper esophageal artery (PEA), the high risk factors for the presence of the anomalous PEA in hemoptysis and to evaluate the safety of transcatheter arterial embolization (TAE) of the PEA using gelatin sponge (GS). Methods: Selective esophageal arteriography was performed in forty-three patients with hemoptysis, including 15 cases of pulmonary tuberculosis, 18 cases of bronchiectasis, 7 cases of posttuberculous bronchiectasis and three cases of lung cancer. One case experienced failure of bronchial arterial embolization. The angiographic manifestation of the PEAs was studied. The complications of the procedure and clinical results were observed in the patients who underwent TAE using GS. Results: Thirty-nine PEAs were catheterized selectively in 37 patients (86.0%). Eighteen anomalous PEAs (46.2%) were catheterized selectively in 17 patients (45.9%). The anomalous PEAs showed tortuosity, dilatation, hyperplasia, shunting with pulmonary artery and anastomosis with the bronchial artery. All lesions involved basal segment of inferior pulmonary lobar. Bronchiectasis was the most frequent disease for PEA abnormality. No complications occurred and satisfactory curative effect was achieved with TAE of the anomalous PEAs. Conclusions: It is necessary to perform selective proper esophageal arteriography when the lesion involves basal segment of inferior pulmonary lobar in hemoptysis. Supplemental TAE of the anomalous PEA using GS is safe and valuable in the management of hemoptysis. (authors)

RISK ANALYSIS APPLIED IN OIL EXPLORATION AND PRODUCTION

African Journals Online (AJOL)

ES Obe

aDepartment of Civil Engineering, University of Nigeria, Nsukka, Enugu State, Nigeria. ... The analysis in this work is ... risk analysis, oil field, risk management, projects, investment opportunity. 1. .... own merit but since the company has limited.

20 CFR 658.415 - Transferring complaints to proper JS office.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-04-01

... 20 Employees' Benefits 3 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Transferring complaints to proper JS office... Agency Js Complaint System § 658.415 Transferring complaints to proper JS office. (a) Where a JS-related... local office serving the area in which the employer is located. Where a JS-related complaint deals with...

The proper name as starting point for basic reading skills

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Both-De Vries, Anna C.; Bus, Adriana G

Does alphabetic-phonetic writing start with the proper name and how does the name affect reading and writing skills? Sixty 4- to 5(1/2)-year-old children from middle SES families with Dutch as their first language wrote their proper name and named letters. For each child we created unique sets of

Subtypes of Benign Breast Disease as a Risk Factor for Breast Cancer: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis Protocol

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Manoosh Zendehdel

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Breast cancer is a multifactorial disease. Benign breast disease (BBD is one of the most important risk factors for breast cancer. The etiology of BBD is unknown. It is divided into nonproliferative and proliferative diseases. The selection of studies will be based on titles, abstract screening, inclusion and exclusion criteria, and quality assessment. Previous studies have shown that all types of BBD increase the risk of breast cancer, but the risk degree is different for each one. Accurate risk estimation of breast cancer in each category can be very important for proper clinical management. This systematic review and meta-analysis will be conducted on observational studies (traditional case control, nested case control, case cohort, and cohort published in the Web of Science (ISI, PubMed (MEDLINE, Scopus, Google Scholar, and the key journals of this field such as Breast Cancer Research and Treatment and Cancer Research from January 2000 to June 2015. Reference lists and gray literature will be reviewed too. All the initial retrievals will be performed by 2 researchers independently. The data extraction form will consist of general information concerning the studies, study eligibility, method, risk of bias assessment, and results—including odds ratios, risk ratios, rate ratios, and hazard ratios. The PRISMA and MOOSE guidelines will be used to report our findings. Registration Details: PROSPERO-42016035243

Subtypes of Benign Breast Disease as a Risk Factor for Breast Cancer: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis Protocol.

Science.gov (United States)

Zendehdel, Manoosh; Niakan, Babak; Keshtkar, Abbasali; Rafiei, Elahe; Salamat, Fatemeh

2018-01-01

Breast cancer is a multifactorial disease. Benign breast disease (BBD) is one of the most important risk factors for breast cancer. The etiology of BBD is unknown. It is divided into nonproliferative and proliferative diseases. The selection of studies will be based on titles, abstract screening, inclusion and exclusion criteria, and quality assessment. Previous studies have shown that all types of BBD increase the risk of breast cancer, but the risk degree is different for each one. Accurate risk estimation of breast cancer in each category can be very important for proper clinical management. This systematic review and meta-analysis will be conducted on observational studies (traditional case control, nested case control, case cohort, and cohort) published in the Web of Science (ISI), PubMed (MEDLINE), Scopus, Google Scholar, and the key journals of this field such as Breast Cancer Research and Treatment and Cancer Research from January 2000 to June 2015. Reference lists and gray literature will be reviewed too. All the initial retrievals will be performed by 2 researchers independently. The data extraction form will consist of general information concerning the studies, study eligibility, method, risk of bias assessment, and results-including odds ratios, risk ratios, rate ratios, and hazard ratios. The PRISMA and MOOSE guidelines will be used to report our findings. Registration Details: PROSPERO-42016035243.

Social inequalities in health: a proper concern of epidemiology.

Science.gov (United States)

Marmot, Michael; Bell, Ruth

2016-04-01

Social inequalities are a proper concern of epidemiology. Epidemiological thinking and modes of analysis are central, but epidemiological research is one among many areas of study that provide the evidence for understanding the causes of social inequalities in health and what can be done to reduce them. Understanding the causes of health inequalities requires insights from social, behavioral and biological sciences, and a chain of reasoning that examines how the accumulation of positive and negative influences over the life course leads to health inequalities in adult life. Evidence that the social gradient in health can be reduced should make us optimistic that reducing health inequalities is a realistic goal for all societies. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Cyber Risk Management for Critical Infrastructure: A Risk Analysis Model and Three Case Studies.

Science.gov (United States)

Paté-Cornell, M-Elisabeth; Kuypers, Marshall; Smith, Matthew; Keller, Philip

2018-02-01

Managing cyber security in an organization involves allocating the protection budget across a spectrum of possible options. This requires assessing the benefits and the costs of these options. The risk analyses presented here are statistical when relevant data are available, and system-based for high-consequence events that have not happened yet. This article presents, first, a general probabilistic risk analysis framework for cyber security in an organization to be specified. It then describes three examples of forward-looking analyses motivated by recent cyber attacks. The first one is the statistical analysis of an actual database, extended at the upper end of the loss distribution by a Bayesian analysis of possible, high-consequence attack scenarios that may happen in the future. The second is a systems analysis of cyber risks for a smart, connected electric grid, showing that there is an optimal level of connectivity. The third is an analysis of sequential decisions to upgrade the software of an existing cyber security system or to adopt a new one to stay ahead of adversaries trying to find their way in. The results are distributions of losses to cyber attacks, with and without some considered countermeasures in support of risk management decisions based both on past data and anticipated incidents. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

Risk analysis of bidding strategies in an electricity pay as bid auction: A new theorem

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rahimiyan, Morteza; Rajabi Mashhadi, Habib

2007-01-01

Considering the uncertainties in the power market, the bidding problem has an important role for the power supplier to reach his goals, and using risk management methods to protect against the market risk is unavoidable. Thus, in this paper, the bidding decision making problem is formulated from a supplier's viewpoint in a spot market. The spot market works based on a pay as bid auction or a discriminatory price auction. The market clearing price (MCP) is uncertain, and we consider a probabilistic model for it. Regarding the literature of the bidding problem and forecasting methods of MCP, a normal probability density function, pdf (N(μ m , σ m )), is a proper distribution for the MCP. The statistical parameters of MCP vary on different times (peak and off peak), and considering the concept of supplier risk, their effects on the supplier expected benefit and expected sell from selling energy will be discussed analytically. An important section of this research work concerns the optimal bidding strategy when μ m and σ m vary in different conditions of the power market. Thus, the coefficient of variation index (CV), as a proper measure, mathematically defined as σ m divided by μ m , is introduced to measure the market risk index. In this paper, the CV index is used to analyze and manage the supplier risk and introduce the optimal strategy. Then, for a constant amount of the CV as a theorem, it is proved that: (1) the maximum of the expected sell occurs at a constant level of the supplier risk and (2) the optimal bid price linearly depends on the standard deviation of the MCP. This theorem is generalized for the case that the expected value of the supplier benefit is considered as an objective function in the bidding process. Some numerical examples are presented, and application of the proposed theorem is discussed

Computation of asteroid proper elements on the Grid

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Novaković B.

2009-01-01

Full Text Available A procedure of gridification of the computation of asteroid proper orbital elements is described. The need to speed up the time consuming computations and make them more efficient is justified by the large increase of observational data expected from the next generation all sky surveys. We give the basic notion of proper elements and of the contemporary theories and methods used to compute them for different populations of objects. Proper elements for nearly 70,000 asteroids are derived since the beginning of use of the Grid infrastructure for the purpose. The average time for the catalogs update is significantly shortened with respect to the time needed with stand-alone workstations. We also present basics of the Grid computing, the concepts of Grid middleware and its Workload management system. The practical steps we undertook to efficiently gridify our application are described in full detail. We present the results of a comprehensive testing of the performance of different Grid sites, and offer some practical conclusions based on the benchmark results and on our experience. Finally, we propose some possibilities for the future work.

Computation of Asteroid Proper Elements on the Grid

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Novaković, B.

2009-12-01

Full Text Available A procedure of gridification of the computation of asteroid proper orbital elements is described. The need to speed up the time consuming computations and make them more efficient is justified by the large increase of observational data expected from the next generation all sky surveys. We give the basic notion of proper elements and of the contemporary theories and methods used to compute them for different populations of objects. Proper elements for nearly 70,000 asteroids are derived since the beginning of use of the Grid infrastructure for the purpose. The average time for the catalogs update is significantly shortened with respect to the time needed with stand-alone workstations. We also present basics of the Grid computing, the concepts of Grid middleware and its Workload management system. The practical steps we undertook to efficiently gridify our application are described in full detail. We present the results of a comprehensive testing of the performance of different Grid sites, and offer some practical conclusions based on the benchmark results and on our experience. Finally, we propose some possibilities for the future work.

Secular Extragalactic Parallax and Geometric Distances with Gaia Proper Motions

Science.gov (United States)

Paine, Jennie; Darling, Jeremiah K.

2018-06-01

The motion of the Solar System with respect to the cosmic microwave background (CMB) rest frame creates a well measured dipole in the CMB, which corresponds to a linear solar velocity of about 78 AU/yr. This motion causes relatively nearby extragalactic objects to appear to move compared to more distant objects, an effect that can be measured in the proper motions of nearby galaxies. An object at 1 Mpc and perpendicular to the CMB apex will exhibit a secular parallax, observed as a proper motion, of 78 µas/yr. The relatively large peculiar motions of galaxies make the detection of secular parallax challenging for individual objects. Instead, a statistical parallax measurement can be made for a sample of objects with proper motions, where the global parallax signal is modeled as an E-mode dipole that diminishes linearly with distance. We present preliminary results of applying this model to a sample of nearby galaxies with Gaia proper motions to detect the statistical secular parallax signal. The statistical measurement can be used to calibrate the canonical cosmological “distance ladder.”

Urban flooding and health risk analysis by use of quantitative microbial risk assessment

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersen, Signe Tanja

D thesis is to identify the limitations and possibilities for optimising microbial risk assessments of urban flooding through more evidence-based solutions, including quantitative microbial data and hydrodynamic water quality models. The focus falls especially on the problem of data needs and the causes......, but also when wading through a flooded area. The results in this thesis have brought microbial risk assessments one step closer to more uniform and repeatable risk analysis by using actual and relevant measured data and hydrodynamic water quality models to estimate the risk from flooding caused...... are expected to increase in the future. To ensure public health during extreme rainfall, solutions are needed, but limited knowledge on microbial water quality, and related health risks, makes it difficult to implement microbial risk analysis as a part of the basis for decision making. The main aim of this Ph...

Boltzmann babies in the proper time measure

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bousso, Raphael; Bousso, Raphael; Freivogel, Ben; Yang, I-Sheng

2007-12-20

After commenting briefly on the role of the typicality assumption in science, we advocate a phenomenological approach to the cosmological measure problem. Like any other theory, a measure should be simple, general, well defined, and consistent with observation. This allows us to proceed by elimination. As an example, we consider the proper time cutoff on a geodesic congruence. It predicts that typical observers are quantum fluctuations in the early universe, or Boltzmann babies. We sharpen this well-known youngness problem by taking into account the expansion and open spatial geometry of pocket universes. Moreover, we relate the youngness problem directly to the probability distribution for observables, such as the temperature of the cosmic background radiation. We consider a number of modifications of the proper time measure, but find none that would make it compatible with observation.

National Chernobyl registry of Russia: Radiation risks analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ivanov, V K; Tsyb, A F [Medical Radiological Research Center (RAMS), Obninsk (Russian Federation)

1997-09-01

Ten years have elapsed after the Chernobyl accident. The problem concerning the estimation of the total integral damage to life and health of people exposed to radiation remains very complicated. A negative influence of the Chernobyl included a spectrum of factors which may reinforce each other. In particular, to date there are no theoretical models or practical recommendations on integral estimating the contribution of social and psycho-emotional factors to the risks of diseases due to radiological accidents. On the other hand, for maximum effective rehabilitation of suffered people the ranging and impartial determination of contribution both of proper radiation and non-radiation components of influence are needed. Therefore, continuation of long-standing investigations is of great practical importance to diminish health consequences of the accident. 5 refs, 7 figs, 4 tabs.

National Chernobyl registry of Russia: Radiation risks analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ivanov, V.K.; Tsyb, A.F.

1997-01-01

Ten years have elapsed after the Chernobyl accident. The problem concerning the estimation of the total integral damage to life and health of people exposed to radiation remains very complicated. A negative influence of the Chernobyl included a spectrum of factors which may reinforce each other. In particular, to date there are no theoretical models or practical recommendations on integral estimating the contribution of social and psycho-emotional factors to the risks of diseases due to radiological accidents. On the other hand, for maximum effective rehabilitation of suffered people the ranging and impartial determination of contribution both of proper radiation and non-radiation components of influence are needed. Therefore, continuation of long-standing investigations is of great practical importance to diminish health consequences of the accident. 5 refs, 7 figs, 4 tabs

Computing more proper covariances of energy dependent nuclear data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vanhanen, R.

2016-01-01

Highlights: • We present conditions for covariances of energy dependent nuclear data to be proper. • We provide methods to detect non-positive and inconsistent covariances in ENDF-6 format. • We propose methods to find nearby more proper covariances. • The methods can be used as a part of a quality assurance program. - Abstract: We present conditions for covariances of energy dependent nuclear data to be proper in the sense that the covariances are positive, i.e., its eigenvalues are non-negative, and consistent with respect to the sum rules of nuclear data. For the ENDF-6 format covariances we present methods to detect non-positive and inconsistent covariances. These methods would be useful as a part of a quality assurance program. We also propose methods that can be used to find nearby more proper energy dependent covariances. These methods can be used to remove unphysical components, while preserving most of the physical components. We consider several different senses in which the nearness can be measured. These methods could be useful if a re-evaluation of improper covariances is not feasible. Two practical examples are processed and analyzed. These demonstrate some of the properties of the methods. We also demonstrate that the ENDF-6 format covariances of linearly dependent nuclear data should usually be encoded with the derivation rules.

Probabilistic risk analysis in chemical engineering

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schmalz, F.

1991-01-01

In risk analysis in the chemical industry, recognising potential risks is considered more important than assessing their quantitative extent. Even in assessing risks, emphasis is not on the probability involved but on the possible extent. Qualitative assessment has proved valuable here. Probabilistic methods are used in individual cases where the wide implications make it essential to be able to assess the reliability of safety precautions. In this case, assessment therefore centres on the reliability of technical systems and not on the extent of a chemical risk. 7 figs

Method for environmental risk analysis (MIRA) revision 2007

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2007-04-01

OLF's instruction manual for carrying out environmental risk analyses provides a united approach and a common framework for environmental risk assessments. This is based on the best information available. The manual implies standardizations of a series of parameters, input data and partial analyses that are included in the environmental risk analysis. Environmental risk analyses carried out according to the MIRA method will thus be comparable between fields and between companies. In this revision an update of the text in accordance with today's practice for environmental risk analyses and prevailing regulations is emphasized. Moreover, method adjustments for especially protected beach habitats have been introduced, as well as a general method for estimating environmental risk concerning fish. Emphasis has also been put on improving environmental risk analysis' possibilities to contribute to a better management of environmental risk in the companies (ml)

Dexterity test data contribute to proper glovebox over-glove use

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cournoyer, Michael E.; Lawton, Cindy M.; Castro, Armanda M.; Costigan, Stephen A.; Apel, D.M.; Neal, G.E.; Castro, J.M.; Michelotti, R.A.

2010-01-01

Programmatic operations at the Los Alamos National Laboratory Plutonium Facility (TA-55) involve working with various amounts of plutonium and other highly toxic, alpha-emitting materials. The spread of radiological contamination on surfaces, airborne contamination, and excursions of contaminants into the operator's breathing zone are prevented through the use of a variety of gloveboxes (the glovebox, coupled with an adequate negative pressure gradient, provides primary confinement). The glovebox gloves are the weakest part of this engineering control. The Glovebox Glove Integrity Program, which controls glovebox gloves from procurement to disposal at TA-55, manages this vulnerability. A key element of this program is to consider measures that lower the overall risk of glovebox operations. Proper selection of over-gloves is one of these measures. Line management owning glovebox processes have the responsibility to approve the appropriate personal protective equipment/glovebox glove/over-glove combination. As low as reasonably achievable (ALARA) considerations to prevent unplanned glovebox glove openings must be balanced with glove durability and worker dexterity, both of which affect the final overall risk to the worker. In this study, the causes of unplanned glovebox glove openings, the benefits of over-glove features, the effect of over-gloves on task performance using standard dexterity tests, the pollution prevention benefits, and the recommended over-gloves for a task are presented.

The Requirement of Being a "Fit and Proper" Person for the Legal ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

An important requirement for admission as an attorney or advocate is to be a "fit and proper" person. Lawyers are also struck from the respective rolls of advocates or attorneys if they cease to be "fit and proper". This requirement of being a "fit and proper" person is not defined or described in legislation. It is left to the ...

Evaluating the risks of clinical research: direct comparative analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Rid, Annette; Abdoler, Emily; Roberson-Nay, Roxann; Pine, Daniel S; Wendler, David

2014-09-01

Many guidelines and regulations allow children and adolescents to be enrolled in research without the prospect of clinical benefit when it poses minimal risk. However, few systematic methods exist to determine when research risks are minimal. This situation has led to significant variation in minimal risk judgments, raising concern that some children are not being adequately protected. To address this concern, we describe a new method for implementing the widely endorsed "risks of daily life" standard for minimal risk. This standard defines research risks as minimal when they do not exceed the risks posed by daily life activities or routine examinations. This study employed a conceptual and normative analysis, and use of an illustrative example. Different risks are composed of the same basic elements: Type, likelihood, and magnitude of harm. Hence, one can compare the risks of research and the risks of daily life by comparing the respective basic elements with each other. We use this insight to develop a systematic method, direct comparative analysis, for implementing the "risks of daily life" standard for minimal risk. The method offers a way of evaluating research procedures that pose the same types of risk as daily life activities, such as the risk of experiencing anxiety, stress, or other psychological harm. We thus illustrate how direct comparative analysis can be applied in practice by using it to evaluate whether the anxiety induced by a respiratory CO2 challenge poses minimal or greater than minimal risks in children and adolescents. Direct comparative analysis is a systematic method for applying the "risks of daily life" standard for minimal risk to research procedures that pose the same types of risk as daily life activities. It thereby offers a method to protect children and adolescents in research, while ensuring that important studies are not blocked because of unwarranted concerns about research risks.

Risk Analysis for Unintentional Slide Deployment During Airline Operations.

Science.gov (United States)

Ayra, Eduardo S; Insua, David Ríos; Castellanos, María Eugenia; Larbi, Lydia

2015-09-01

We present a risk analysis undertaken to mitigate problems in relation to the unintended deployment of slides under normal operations within a commercial airline. This type of incident entails relevant costs for the airline industry. After assessing the likelihood and severity of its consequences, we conclude that such risks need to be managed. We then evaluate the effectiveness of various countermeasures, describing and justifying the chosen ones. We also discuss several issues faced when implementing and communicating the proposed measures, thus fully illustrating the risk analysis process. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

The Essentials of Proper Wine Service.

Science.gov (United States)

Manago, Gary H.

This instructional unit was designed to assist the food services instructor and/or the restaurant manager in training students and/or staff in the proper procedure for serving wines to guests. The lesson plans included in this unit focus on: (1) the different types of wine glasses and their uses; (2) the parts of a wine glass; (3) the proper…

Mare Risk Analysis monitor

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fuente Prieto, I.; Alonso, P.; Carretero Fernandino, J. A.

2000-01-01

The Nuclear Safety Council's requirement that Spanish power plants comply with the requirements of the Maintenance Rule associated with plant risk assessment during power operation, arising from the partial unavailability of systems due to the maintenance activities, has led to need for additional tools to facilitate compliance with said requirements. While the impact on risk produced by individual equipment unavailabilities can easily be evaluated, either qualitatively or quantitatively, the process becomes more complicated when un programmed unavailabilities simultaneously occur in various systems, making it necessary to evaluate their functional impact. It is especially complex in the case of support systems that can affect the functionality of multiple systems. In view of the above, a computer application has been developed that is capable of providing the operator with quick answers based on the specific plant model in order to allow fast risk assessment using the information compiled as part of the Probabilistic Safety Analysis. The paper describes the most important characteristics of this application and the basic design requirements of the MARE Risk Monitor. (Author)

AHP-based risk analysis of energy performance contracting projects in Russia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Garbuzova-Schlifter, Maria; Madlener, Reinhard

2016-01-01

Understanding and properly managing risks that could potentially affect the target- and performance-based profits of energy performance contracting (EPC) projects are essential. It is particularly important for the establishment and success of energy service companies (ESCOs) acting in the vulnerable environment of the vast but highly energy-inefficient Russian market. This study systematically explores common risk factors and causes of risk associated with EPC projects executed in three Russian sectors: (1) industrial; (2) housing and communal services; and (3) public. Several interviews with the Russian EPC experts were accomplished and a qualitative risk assessment by using an analytic hierarchy process (AHP) approach. The data were obtained from a web-based questionnaire survey conducted among Russian EPC project executors. For each focus sector, a specific preference-based ranking of the identified risk factors and causes of risk was derived. The AHP results show that causes of risk related to the financial and regulatory aspects contribute most to the riskiness of EPC projects performed in all three focus sectors in Russia, calling for the special attention of EPC policy- and business-makers. Due to sectorial particularities and different actors involved, we conclude that there is a need for elaboration of sector-specific contractual schemes for EPC projects. - Highlights: • AHP- and survey-based study of energy performance contracting (EPC) projects in Russia. • Main risk factors and causes of risk associated with EPC projects are investigated. • In practice, lack of a feasible risk management approach in EPC projects. • Regulatory and financial risks contribute most to the EPC projects’ riskiness. • Elaboration of the sector-specific EPC project contractual scheme is required.

Bayesian-network-based safety risk analysis in construction projects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang, Limao; Wu, Xianguo; Skibniewski, Miroslaw J.; Zhong, Jingbing; Lu, Yujie

2014-01-01

This paper presents a systemic decision support approach for safety risk analysis under uncertainty in tunnel construction. Fuzzy Bayesian Networks (FBN) is used to investigate causal relationships between tunnel-induced damage and its influential variables based upon the risk/hazard mechanism analysis. Aiming to overcome limitations on the current probability estimation, an expert confidence indicator is proposed to ensure the reliability of the surveyed data for fuzzy probability assessment of basic risk factors. A detailed fuzzy-based inference procedure is developed, which has a capacity of implementing deductive reasoning, sensitivity analysis and abductive reasoning. The “3σ criterion” is adopted to calculate the characteristic values of a triangular fuzzy number in the probability fuzzification process, and the α-weighted valuation method is adopted for defuzzification. The construction safety analysis progress is extended to the entire life cycle of risk-prone events, including the pre-accident, during-construction continuous and post-accident control. A typical hazard concerning the tunnel leakage in the construction of Wuhan Yangtze Metro Tunnel in China is presented as a case study, in order to verify the applicability of the proposed approach. The results demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed approach and its application potential. A comparison of advantages and disadvantages between FBN and fuzzy fault tree analysis (FFTA) as risk analysis tools is also conducted. The proposed approach can be used to provide guidelines for safety analysis and management in construction projects, and thus increase the likelihood of a successful project in a complex environment. - Highlights: • A systemic Bayesian network based approach for safety risk analysis is developed. • An expert confidence indicator for probability fuzzification is proposed. • Safety risk analysis progress is extended to entire life cycle of risk-prone events. • A typical

On the validation of risk analysis-A commentary

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rosqvist, Tony

2010-01-01

Aven and Heide (2009) [1] provided interesting views on the reliability and validation of risk analysis. The four validation criteria presented are contrasted with modelling features related to the relative frequency-based and Bayesian approaches to risk analysis. In this commentary I would like to bring forth some issues on validation that partly confirm and partly suggest changes in the interpretation of the introduced validation criteria-especially, in the context of low probability-high consequence systems. The mental model of an expert in assessing probabilities is argued to be a key notion in understanding the validation of a risk analysis.

Quantitative risk assessment using the capacity-demand analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Morgenroth, M.; Donnelly, C.R.; Westermann, G.D.; Huang, J.H.S.; Lam, T.M.

1999-01-01

The hydroelectric industry's recognition of the importance of avoiding unexpected failure, or forced outages, led to the development of probabilistic, or risk-based, methods in order to attempt to quantify exposures. Traditionally, such analysis has been carried out by qualitative assessments, relying on experience and sound engineering judgment to determine the optimum time to maintain, repair or replace a part or system. Depending on the nature of the problem, however, and the level of experience of those included in the decision making process, it is difficult to find a balance between acting proactively and accepting some amount of risk. The development of a practical means for establishing the probability of failure of any part or system, based on the determination of the statistical distribution of engineering properties such as acting stresses, is discussed. The capacity-demand analysis methodology, coupled with probablistic, risk-based analysis, permits all the factors associated with a decision to rehabilitate or replace a part, including the risks associated with the timing of the decision, to be assessed in a transparent and defendable manner. The methodology does not eliminate judgment altogether, but does move it from the level of estimating the risk of failure to the lower level of estimating variability in material properties, uncertainty in loading, and the uncertainties inherent in any engineering analysis. The method was successfully used in 1998 to carry out a comprehensive, economic risk analysis for the entire water conveyance system of a 90 year old hydropower station. The analysis included a number of diverse parts ranging from rock slopes and aging steel and concrete conduits, and the method allowed a rational assessment of the risks associated with reach of these varied parts to be determined, permitting the essential remedial works to be prioritized. 14 refs., 4 figs

Do not fear the Framingham: Practical application to properly evaluate and modify cardiovascular risk in commercial divers.

Science.gov (United States)

Suresh, Rahul; Pavela, James; Kus, Marcus S; Alleman, Tony; Sanders, Robert

2018-01-01

In April 2016 the Association of Diving Contractors International (ADCI) consensus guidelines began recommending annual cardiovascular risk stratification of commercial divers using the Framingham Risk Score (FRS). For those at elevated risk, further testing is recommended. This approach has raised concerns about potential operational and financial impacts. However, the prevalence of elevated cardiovascular risk and need for additional testing among commercial divers is not known. Clinical data required to calculate the FRS was abstracted for 190 commercial divers in two cohorts. Population demographics, FRS distribution, contributions of risk factors and effect of interventions on reducing risk-factor burden were assessed. Mean FRS score was 1.68 ± 6.35 points, with 13 divers (6.8%) at intermediate risk and none at high 10-year risk. In these 13 divers, the mean contributions to the FRS were from age (6.5 points), cholesterol (3.1 pts.), smoking (1.3 pts.), highdensity lipoprotein (1 pt.), and systolic blood pressure (0.8 pts). The youngest age group had a significantly higher modifiable risk core than the oldest age group (5.87 vs. 1.2 points, P ⟨ 0.001). All 13 intermediate risk divers could have been reclassified as low-risk with successful treatment of modifiable risk factors. The prevalence of elevated cardiovascular risk among commercial divers is low, and treatment of modifiable risk factors could reclassify those at intermediate risk to low risk. Therefore, FRS implementation coupled with intensive risk-reduction strategies for at risk-divers may help improve diver health and prolong the careers of divers while limiting the need for additional testing and adverse operational impact. Copyright© Undersea and Hyperbaric Medical Society.

System risk evolution analysis and risk critical event identification based on event sequence diagram

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Luo, Pengcheng; Hu, Yang

2013-01-01

During system operation, the environmental, operational and usage conditions are time-varying, which causes the fluctuations of the system state variables (SSVs). These fluctuations change the accidents’ probabilities and then result in the system risk evolution (SRE). This inherent relation makes it feasible to realize risk control by monitoring the SSVs in real time, herein, the quantitative analysis of SRE is essential. Besides, some events in the process of SRE are critical to system risk, because they act like the “demarcative points” of safety and accident, and this characteristic makes each of them a key point of risk control. Therefore, analysis of SRE and identification of risk critical events (RCEs) are remarkably meaningful to ensure the system to operate safely. In this context, an event sequence diagram (ESD) based method of SRE analysis and the related Monte Carlo solution are presented; RCE and risk sensitive variable (RSV) are defined, and the corresponding identification methods are also proposed. Finally, the proposed approaches are exemplified with an accident scenario of an aircraft getting into the icing region

Instability risk analysis and risk assessment system establishment of underground storage caverns in bedded salt rock

Science.gov (United States)

Jing, Wenjun; Zhao, Yan

2018-02-01

Stability is an important part of geotechnical engineering research. The operating experiences of underground storage caverns in salt rock all around the world show that the stability of the caverns is the key problem of safe operation. Currently, the combination of theoretical analysis and numerical simulation are the mainly adopts method of reserve stability analysis. This paper introduces the concept of risk into the stability analysis of underground geotechnical structure, and studies the instability of underground storage cavern in salt rock from the perspective of risk analysis. Firstly, the definition and classification of cavern instability risk is proposed, and the damage mechanism is analyzed from the mechanical angle. Then the main stability evaluating indicators of cavern instability risk are proposed, and an evaluation method of cavern instability risk is put forward. Finally, the established cavern instability risk assessment system is applied to the analysis and prediction of cavern instability risk after 30 years of operation in a proposed storage cavern group in the Huai’an salt mine. This research can provide a useful theoretical base for the safe operation and management of underground storage caverns in salt rock.

Analysis of risk factors and risk assessment for ischemic stroke recurrence

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xiu-ying LONG

2016-08-01

Full Text Available Objective To screen the risk factors for recurrence of ischemic stroke and to assess the risk of recurrence. Methods Essen Stroke Risk Score (ESRS was used to evaluate the risk of recurrence in 176 patients with ischemic stroke (96 cases of first onset and 80 cases of recurrence. Univariate and multivariate stepwise Logistic regression analysis was used to screen risk factors for recurrence of ischemic stroke.  Results There were significant differences between first onset group and recurrence group on age, the proportion of > 75 years old, hypertension, diabetes, coronary heart disease, peripheral angiopathy, transient ischemic attack (TIA or ischemic stroke, drinking and ESRS score (P < 0.05, for all. First onset group included one case of ESRS 0 (1.04%, 8 cases of 1 (8.33%, 39 cases of 2 (40.63%, 44 cases of 3 (45.83%, 4 cases of 4 (4.17%. Recurrence group included 2 cases of ESRS 3 (2.50%, 20 cases of 4 (25% , 37 cases of 5 (46.25% , 18 cases of 6 (22.50% , 3 cases of 7 (3.75% . There was significant difference between 2 groups (Z = -11.376, P = 0.000. Logistic regression analysis showed ESRS > 3 score was independent risk factor for recurrence of ischemic stroke (OR = 31.324, 95%CI: 3.934-249.430; P = 0.001.  Conclusions ESRS > 3 score is the independent risk factor for recurrence of ischemic stroke. It is important to strengthen risk assessment of recurrence of ischemic stroke. To screen and control risk factors is the key to secondary prevention of ischemic stroke. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1672-6731.2016.07.011

Risk analysis of industrial plants operation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hubert, Philippe

1989-12-01

This study examines the possibilities of systematic technology risk analysis in view of territorial management (city, urban community, region), including chronic and accidental risks. The objective was to relate this evaluation with those done for permanent water and air pollution. Risk management for pollution are done for a long time. A number of studies were done in urban communities and regions both for air and water pollution. The second objective is related to management of industrial risks: nuclear, petrochemical, transport of hazardous material, pipelines, etc. At the beginning, three possibilities of effects are taken into account: human health, economic aspect and water, and possibilities of evaluation are identified. Elements of risk identification are presented for quantification of results [fr

Determining proper strategies for health, safety, security and environmental (HSSE) management system.

Science.gov (United States)

Zaeimdar, Mojgan; Nasiri, Parvin; Taghdisi, Mohammadhoseyn; Abbaspour, Majid; Arjmandi, Reza; Kalatipor, Omid

2013-01-01

Today, managing an organization is concerned with many problems. Adopting proper strategies can promote an organization's survival. This study aimed at developing an appropriate HSSE Strategy for regional operation associated companies of Iran National Gas Company (INGS) using SWOT analysis. The analysis of the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats of HSSE was carried out and according to the results suitable strategies were recommended. In this regard, senior and junior managers, supervisors, and experts active in regional operation associated companies of Iran National Gas Company participated in SWOT analysis from HSSE angle. Then, they selected the most applicable SWOT factors pertaining to the organization. In the next step, these factors were weighted and scored. Based on the results four categories of strategies were developed including SO, WO, ST, and WT. Further examination showed that SO Strategies were the most applicable for the organization.

[Survival analysis with competing risks: estimating failure probability].

Science.gov (United States)

Llorca, Javier; Delgado-Rodríguez, Miguel

2004-01-01

To show the impact of competing risks of death on survival analysis. We provide an example of survival time without chronic rejection after heart transplantation, where death before rejection acts as a competing risk. Using a computer simulation, we compare the Kaplan-Meier estimator and the multiple decrement model. The Kaplan-Meier method overestimated the probability of rejection. Next, we illustrate the use of the multiple decrement model to analyze secondary end points (in our example: death after rejection). Finally, we discuss Kaplan-Meier assumptions and why they fail in the presence of competing risks. Survival analysis should be adjusted for competing risks of death to avoid overestimation of the risk of rejection produced with the Kaplan-Meier method.

Quantitative risk analysis of a space shuttle subsystem

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Frank, M.V.

1989-01-01

This paper reports that in an attempt to investigate methods for risk management other than qualitative analysis techniques, NASA has funded pilot study quantitative risk analyses for space shuttle subsystems. The authors performed one such study of two shuttle subsystems with McDonnell Douglas Astronautics Company. The subsystems were the auxiliary power units (APU) on the orbiter, and the hydraulic power units on the solid rocket booster. The technology and results of the APU study are presented in this paper. Drawing from a rich in-flight database as well as from a wealth of tests and analyses, the study quantitatively assessed the risk of APU-initiated scenarios on the shuttle during all phases of a flight mission. Damage states of interest were loss of crew/vehicle, aborted mission, and launch scrub. A quantitative risk analysis approach to deciding on important items for risk management was contrasted with the current NASA failure mode and effects analysis/critical item list approach

New algorithm for risk analysis in radiotherapy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Torres, Antonio; Montes de Oca, Joe

2015-01-01

Risk analyses applied to radiotherapy treatments have become an undeniable necessity, considering the dangers generated by the combination of using powerful radiation fields on patients and the occurrence of human errors and equipment failures during these treatments. The technique par excellence to execute these analyses has been the risk matrix. This paper presents the development of a new algorithm to execute the task with wide graphic and analytic potentialities, thus transforming it into a very useful option for risk monitoring and the optimization of quality assurance. The system SECURE- MR, which is the basic software of this algorithm, has been successfully used in risk analysis regarding different kinds of radiotherapies. Compared to previous methods, It offers new possibilities of analysis considering risk controlling factors as the robustness of reducers of initiators frequency and its consequences. Their analytic capacities and graphs allow novel developments to classify risk contributing factors, to represent information processes as well as accidental sequences. The paper shows the application of the proposed system to a generic process of radiotherapy treatment using a lineal accelerator. (author)

Modeling issues in nuclear plant fire risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Siu, N.

1989-01-01

This paper discusses various issues associated with current models for analyzing the risk due to fires in nuclear power plants. Particular emphasis is placed on the fire growth and suppression models, these being unique to the fire portion of the overall risk analysis. Potentially significant modeling improvements are identified; also discussed are a variety of modeling issues where improvements will help the credibility of the analysis, without necessarily changing the computed risk significantly. The mechanistic modeling of fire initiation is identified as a particularly promising improvement for reducing the uncertainties in the predicted risk. 17 refs., 5 figs. 2 tabs

Importance of properly treating human performance in probabilistic risk assessments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kukielka, C.A.; Butler, F.G.; Chaiko, M.A.

1997-01-01

A critical issue to consider when developing Advanced Reactor Systems (ARS) is the operators' ability to reliably execute Emergency Operating Procedures (EOPs) during accidents. A combined probabilistic and deterministic method for evaluating operator performance is outlined in this paper. Three questions are addressed: (1) does the operator understand the status of the plant? (2) does the operator know what to do? and (3) what are the odds of successful EOP execution? Deterministic methods are used to evaluate questions 1 and 2, and question 3 is addressed by statistical analysis. Simulator exercises are used to develop probability of response as a function of time curves for time limited operator actions. This method has been used to identify and resolve deficiencies in the plant operating procedures and the operator interface. An application is provided to the Anticipated Transient without Scram accident sequences. The results of Human Reliability Analysis are compared with the results of similar BWR analyses. 2 figs., 2 tabs

THE PROPER MOTION OF PALOMAR 5

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fritz, T. K.; Kallivayalil, N., E-mail: tkf4w@astro.virginia.edu [Department of Astronomy, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, 3530 McCormick Road, VA 22904-4325 (United States)

2015-10-01

Palomar 5 (Pal 5) is a faint halo globular cluster associated with narrow tidal tails. It is a useful system to understand the process of tidal dissolution, as well as to constrain the potential of the Milky Way. A well-determined orbit for Pal 5 would enable detailed study of these open questions. We present here the first CCD-based proper motion measurement of Pal 5 obtained using SDSS as a first epoch and new Large Binocular Telescope/Large Binocular Camera (LBC) images as a second, giving a baseline of 15 years. We perform relative astrometry, using SDSS as a distortion-free reference, and images of the cluster and also of the Pal 5 stream for the derivation of the distortion correction for LBC. The reference frame is made up of background galaxies. We correct for differential chromatic refraction using relations obtained from SDSS colors as well as from flux-calibrated spectra, finding that the correction relations for stars and for galaxies are different. We obtain μ{sub α} = −2.296 ± 0.186 mas yr{sup −1} and μ{sub δ} = −2.257 ± 0.181 mas yr{sup −1} for the proper motion of Pal 5. We use this motion, and the publicly available code galpy, to model the disruption of Pal 5 in different Milky Way models consisting of a bulge, a disk, and a spherical dark matter halo. Our fits to the observed stream properties (streak and radial velocity gradient) result in a preference for a relatively large Pal 5 distance of around 24 kpc. A slightly larger absolute proper motion than what we measure also results in better matches but the best solutions need a change in distance. We find that a spherical Milky Way model, with V{sub 0} = 220 km s{sup −1} and V{sub 20} {sub kpc}, i.e., approximately at the apocenter of Pal 5, of 218 km s{sup −1}, can match the data well, at least for our choice of disk and bulge parametrization.

Proper orthogonal decomposition analysis of scanning laser Doppler vibrometer measurements of plaster status at the U.S. Capitol

Science.gov (United States)

Vignola, Joseph F.; Bucaro, Joseph A.; Tressler, James F.; Ellingston, Damon; Kurdila, Andrew J.; Adams, George; Marchetti, Barbara; Agnani, Alexia; Esposito, Enrico; Tomasini, Enrico P.

2004-06-01

A large-scale survey (~700 m2) of frescos and wall paintings was undertaken in the U.S. Capitol Building in Washington, D.C. to identify regions that may need structural repair due to detachment, delamination, or other defects. The survey encompassed eight pre-selected spaces including: Brumidi's first work at the Capitol building in the House Appropriations Committee room; the Parliamentarian's office; the House Speaker's office; the Senate Reception room; the President's Room; and three areas of the Brumidi Corridors. Roughly 60% of the area surveyed was domed or vaulted ceilings, the rest being walls. Approximately 250 scans were done ranging in size from 1 to 4 m2. The typical mesh density was 400 scan points per square meter. A common approach for post-processing time series called Proper Orthogonal Decomposition, or POD, was adapted to frequency-domain data in order to extract the essential features of the structure. We present a POD analysis for one of these panels, pinpointing regions that have experienced severe substructural degradation.

Comparative risk analysis for the Rocky Flats Plant integrated project planning

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jones, M.E.; Shain, D.I.

1994-01-01

The Rocky Flats Plant is developing, with active stakeholder participation, a comprehensive planning strategy that will support transition of the Rocky Flats Plant from a nuclear weapons production facility to site cleanup and final disposition. Consideration of the interrelated nature of sitewide problems, such as material movement and disposition, facility and land use endstates, costs, relative risks to workers and the public, and waste disposition are all needed. Comparative Risk Analysis employs both incremental risk and cumulative risk evaluations to compare risks from postulated options or endstates and is an analytical tool for the Rocky Flats Plant Integrated Project Planning which can assist a decision-maker in evaluating relative risks among proposed remediation activity. However, risks from all of the remediation activities, decontamination and decommissioning activities, and normal ongoing operations are imposed upon the Rocky Flats workers, the surrounding public, and the environment. Comparative Risk Analysis will provide risk information, both human health and ecological, to aid in reducing unnecessary resource and monetary expenditures by focusing these resources on the largest risks first. Comparative Risk Analysis has been developed to aggregate various incremental risk estimates to develop a site cumulative risk estimate. The Comparative Risk Analysis methodology Group, consisting of community stakeholders, was established. Early stakeholder involvement in the risk analysis methodology development provides an opportunity for stakeholders to influence the risk information delivered to a decision-maker. This paper discusses development of the Comparative Risk Analysis methodology, stakeholder participation and lessons learned from these challenges

Crash risk analysis during fog conditions using real-time traffic data.

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Yina; Abdel-Aty, Mohamed; Lee, Jaeyoung

2018-05-01

This research investigates the changes of traffic characteristics and crash risks during fog conditions. Using real-time traffic flow and weather data at two regions in Florida, the traffic patterns at the fog duration were compared to the traffic patterns at the clear duration. It was found that the average 5-min speed and the average 5-min volume were prone to decreasing during fog. Based on previous studies, a "Crash Risk Increase Indicator (CRII)" was proposed to explore the differences of crash risk between fog and clear conditions. A binary logistic regression model was applied to link the increase of crash risks with traffic flow characteristics. The results suggested that the proposed indicator worked well in evaluating the increase of crash risk under fog condition. It was indicated that the crash risk was prone to increase at ramp vicinities in fog conditions. Also, the average 5-min volume during fog and the lane position are important factors for crash risk increase. The differences between the regions were also explored in this study. The results indicated that the locations with heavier traffic or locations at the lanes that were closest to the median in Region 2 were more likely to observe an increase in crash risks in fog conditions. It is expected that the proposed indicator can help identify the dangerous traffic status under fog conditions and then proper ITS technologies can be implemented to enhance traffic safety when the visibility declines. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Risk analysis as a decision tool

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yadigaroglu, G.; Chakraborty, S.

1985-01-01

From 1983 - 1985 a lecture series entitled ''Risk-benefit analysis'' was held at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (ETH), Zurich, in cooperation with the Central Department for the Safety of Nuclear Installations of the Swiss Federal Agency of Energy Economy. In that setting the value of risk-oriented evaluation models as a decision tool in safety questions was discussed on a broad basis. Experts of international reputation from the Federal Republic of Germany, France, Canada, the United States and Switzerland have contributed to report in this joint volume on the uses of such models. Following an introductory synopsis on risk analysis and risk assessment the book deals with practical examples in the fields of medicine, nuclear power, chemistry, transport and civil engineering. Particular attention is paid to the dialogue between analysts and decision makers taking into account the economic-technical aspects and social values. The recent chemical disaster in the Indian city of Bhopal again signals the necessity of such analyses. All the lectures were recorded individually. (orig./HP) [de

Network theory-based analysis of risk interactions in large engineering projects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fang, Chao; Marle, Franck; Zio, Enrico; Bocquet, Jean-Claude

2012-01-01

This paper presents an approach based on network theory to deal with risk interactions in large engineering projects. Indeed, such projects are exposed to numerous and interdependent risks of various nature, which makes their management more difficult. In this paper, a topological analysis based on network theory is presented, which aims at identifying key elements in the structure of interrelated risks potentially affecting a large engineering project. This analysis serves as a powerful complement to classical project risk analysis. Its originality lies in the application of some network theory indicators to the project risk management field. The construction of the risk network requires the involvement of the project manager and other team members assigned to the risk management process. Its interpretation improves their understanding of risks and their potential interactions. The outcomes of the analysis provide a support for decision-making regarding project risk management. An example of application to a real large engineering project is presented. The conclusion is that some new insights can be found about risks, about their interactions and about the global potential behavior of the project. - Highlights: ► The method addresses the modeling of complexity in project risk analysis. ► Network theory indicators enable other risks than classical criticality analysis to be highlighted. ► This topological analysis improves project manager's understanding of risks and risk interactions. ► This helps project manager to make decisions considering the position in the risk network. ► An application to a real tramway implementation project in a city is provided.

The problem of risk communication

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Soerup, Per

1989-01-01

Communication of risk and risk decisions has always been a matter of great difficulty. A great deal of research has been devoted to improving either the understanding of people's perception of risk or people's understanding of risk itself. These achievements have, however, either failed or the results have not been properly introduced in risk communication. At least this is what can be deduced from recent very heated discussions of risk decisions concerning chemical industry in Denmark. It might thus be that the focus of our interest should be changed from improving already existing methods of risk analysis to improving our understanding of why risk communication very often fails - and fails with very severe consequences. In Denmark a working party set up by the Minister for the Environment has just concluded its work on these matters. This main problem seems to be that the authorities' very one-dimensional perception of risk simply do not reflect the concern of the public and that of many politicians. If this is true the problem is not just a matter of communication but a much more fundamental one which parameters should be introduced in risk evaluation in order to satisfy the need of the public - and how this can be done. (author)

Determination of Proper Peaking Time for Ultra Lege detector at Medium Energies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Karabidak, S. M.

2008-01-01

Reducing count losses and pile-up pulse effects in quantitative and qualitative analysis is necessary for accuracy of analysis. Therefore, the optimum peaking time for particular detector systems is important. For this purpose, pure Se and Zn elements were excited by 59.5 keV γ-rays from a 50 mCi 241 A m annular radioactive source in this study. The characteristic x-rays emitted from pure Se and Zn elements were detected by using an ultra low energy Ge (Ultra-LEGe) detector connecting Tennelec TC 244 spectroscopy amplifier at different peaking time modes. Overall pulse widths were determined by HM 203-7 oscilloscope connecting amplifier. The proper peaking time for ultra low energy germanium detector (Ultra-LEGe) is determined about 4 μs

Risk analysis methodologies for the transportation of radioactive materials

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Geffen, C.A.

1983-05-01

Different methodologies have evolved for consideration of each of the many steps required in performing a transportation risk analysis. Although there are techniques that attempt to consider the entire scope of the analysis in depth, most applications of risk assessment to the transportation of nuclear fuel cycle materials develop specific methodologies for only one or two parts of the analysis. The remaining steps are simplified for the analyst by narrowing the scope of the effort (such as evaluating risks for only one material, or a particular set of accident scenarios, or movement over a specific route); performing a qualitative rather than a quantitative analysis (probabilities may be simply ranked as high, medium or low, for instance); or assuming some generic, conservative conditions for potential release fractions and consequences. This paper presents a discussion of the history and present state-of-the-art of transportation risk analysis methodologies. Many reports in this area were reviewed as background for this presentation. The literature review, while not exhaustive, did result in a complete representation of the major methods used today in transportation risk analysis. These methodologies primarily include the use of severity categories based on historical accident data, the analysis of specifically assumed accident sequences for the transportation activity of interest, and the use of fault or event tree analysis. Although the focus of this work has generally been on potential impacts to public groups, some effort has been expended in the estimation of risks to occupational groups in transportation activities

Risk and response

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Warner, F [Cremer and Warner (UK)

1981-01-01

A discussion of nuclear power and public acceptability can quite properly begin with a general consideration of the nature of response to risk. Response follows perception, and builds up from the individual through group response to the judgement of society expressed in governmental decisions on what is acceptable. Various types of risk, and public reaction, are discussed.

Retention and risk factors for attrition in a large public health ART program in Myanmar: a retrospective cohort analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Thida, Aye; Tun, Sai Thein Than; Zaw, Sai Ko Ko; Lover, Andrew A; Cavailler, Philippe; Chunn, Jennifer; Aye, Mar Mar; Par, Par; Naing, Kyaw Win; Zan, Kaung Nyunt; Shwe, Myint; Kyaw, Thar Tun; Waing, Zaw Htoon; Clevenbergh, Philippe

2014-01-01

The outcomes from an antiretroviral treatment (ART) program within the public sector in Myanmar have not been reported. This study documents retention and the risk factors for attrition in a large ART public health program in Myanmar. A retrospective analysis of a cohort of adult patients enrolled in the Integrated HIV Care (IHC) Program between June 2005 and October 2011 and followed up until April 2012 is presented. The primary outcome was attrition (death or loss-follow up); a total of 10,223 patients were included in the 5-year cumulative survival analysis. Overall 5,718 patients were analyzed for the risk factors for attrition using both logistic regression and flexible parametric survival models. The mean age was 36 years, 61% of patients were male, and the median follow up was 13.7 months. Overall 8,564 (84%) patients were retained in ART program: 750 (7%) were lost to follow-up and 909 (9%) died. During the 3 years follow-up, 1,542 attritions occurred over 17,524 person years at risk, giving an incidence density of 8.8% per year. The retention rates of participants at 12, 24, 36, 48 and 60 months were 86, 82, 80, 77 and 74% respectively. In multivariate analysis, being male, having high WHO staging, a low CD4 count, being anaemic or having low BMI at baseline were independent risk factors for attrition; tuberculosis (TB) treatment at ART initiation, a prior ART course before program enrollment and literacy were predictors for retention in the program. High retention rate of IHC program was documented within the public sector in Myanmar. Early diagnosis of HIV, nutritional support, proper investigation and treatment for patients with low CD4 counts and for those presenting with anaemia are crucial issues towards improvement of HIV program outcomes in resource-limited settings.

Retention and risk factors for attrition in a large public health ART program in Myanmar: a retrospective cohort analysis.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Aye Thida

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The outcomes from an antiretroviral treatment (ART program within the public sector in Myanmar have not been reported. This study documents retention and the risk factors for attrition in a large ART public health program in Myanmar. METHODS: A retrospective analysis of a cohort of adult patients enrolled in the Integrated HIV Care (IHC Program between June 2005 and October 2011 and followed up until April 2012 is presented. The primary outcome was attrition (death or loss-follow up; a total of 10,223 patients were included in the 5-year cumulative survival analysis. Overall 5,718 patients were analyzed for the risk factors for attrition using both logistic regression and flexible parametric survival models. RESULT: The mean age was 36 years, 61% of patients were male, and the median follow up was 13.7 months. Overall 8,564 (84% patients were retained in ART program: 750 (7% were lost to follow-up and 909 (9% died. During the 3 years follow-up, 1,542 attritions occurred over 17,524 person years at risk, giving an incidence density of 8.8% per year. The retention rates of participants at 12, 24, 36, 48 and 60 months were 86, 82, 80, 77 and 74% respectively. In multivariate analysis, being male, having high WHO staging, a low CD4 count, being anaemic or having low BMI at baseline were independent risk factors for attrition; tuberculosis (TB treatment at ART initiation, a prior ART course before program enrollment and literacy were predictors for retention in the program. CONCLUSION: High retention rate of IHC program was documented within the public sector in Myanmar. Early diagnosis of HIV, nutritional support, proper investigation and treatment for patients with low CD4 counts and for those presenting with anaemia are crucial issues towards improvement of HIV program outcomes in resource-limited settings.

Bayesian Inference for NASA Probabilistic Risk and Reliability Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Dezfuli, Homayoon; Kelly, Dana; Smith, Curtis; Vedros, Kurt; Galyean, William

2009-01-01

This document, Bayesian Inference for NASA Probabilistic Risk and Reliability Analysis, is intended to provide guidelines for the collection and evaluation of risk and reliability-related data. It is aimed at scientists and engineers familiar with risk and reliability methods and provides a hands-on approach to the investigation and application of a variety of risk and reliability data assessment methods, tools, and techniques. This document provides both: A broad perspective on data analysis collection and evaluation issues. A narrow focus on the methods to implement a comprehensive information repository. The topics addressed herein cover the fundamentals of how data and information are to be used in risk and reliability analysis models and their potential role in decision making. Understanding these topics is essential to attaining a risk informed decision making environment that is being sought by NASA requirements and procedures such as 8000.4 (Agency Risk Management Procedural Requirements), NPR 8705.05 (Probabilistic Risk Assessment Procedures for NASA Programs and Projects), and the System Safety requirements of NPR 8715.3 (NASA General Safety Program Requirements).

Advanced uncertainty modelling for container port risk analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Alyami, Hani; Yang, Zaili; Riahi, Ramin; Bonsall, Stephen; Wang, Jin

2016-08-13

Globalization has led to a rapid increase of container movements in seaports. Risks in seaports need to be appropriately addressed to ensure economic wealth, operational efficiency, and personnel safety. As a result, the safety performance of a Container Terminal Operational System (CTOS) plays a growing role in improving the efficiency of international trade. This paper proposes a novel method to facilitate the application of Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) in assessing the safety performance of CTOS. The new approach is developed through incorporating a Fuzzy Rule-Based Bayesian Network (FRBN) with Evidential Reasoning (ER) in a complementary manner. The former provides a realistic and flexible method to describe input failure information for risk estimates of individual hazardous events (HEs) at the bottom level of a risk analysis hierarchy. The latter is used to aggregate HEs safety estimates collectively, allowing dynamic risk-based decision support in CTOS from a systematic perspective. The novel feature of the proposed method, compared to those in traditional port risk analysis lies in a dynamic model capable of dealing with continually changing operational conditions in ports. More importantly, a new sensitivity analysis method is developed and carried out to rank the HEs by taking into account their specific risk estimations (locally) and their Risk Influence (RI) to a port's safety system (globally). Due to its generality, the new approach can be tailored for a wide range of applications in different safety and reliability engineering and management systems, particularly when real time risk ranking is required to measure, predict, and improve the associated system safety performance. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Multivariate survival analysis and competing risks

CERN Document Server

Crowder, Martin J

2012-01-01

Multivariate Survival Analysis and Competing Risks introduces univariate survival analysis and extends it to the multivariate case. It covers competing risks and counting processes and provides many real-world examples, exercises, and R code. The text discusses survival data, survival distributions, frailty models, parametric methods, multivariate data and distributions, copulas, continuous failure, parametric likelihood inference, and non- and semi-parametric methods. There are many books covering survival analysis, but very few that cover the multivariate case in any depth. Written for a graduate-level audience in statistics/biostatistics, this book includes practical exercises and R code for the examples. The author is renowned for his clear writing style, and this book continues that trend. It is an excellent reference for graduate students and researchers looking for grounding in this burgeoning field of research.

Improved Industrial Development In Nigeria Through Proper ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

The paper noted that most industrial development strategies in Nigeria did not give attention to technology education. And that technology education as recognized by few of the strategies were not only properly articulated for the tertiary institutions, but also poorly implemented. Therefore, to put technology and thus ...

On Risk Charges and Shadow Account Options in Pension Funds

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jørgensen, Peter Løchte; Gatzert, Nadine

2015-01-01

to equityholders and our paper develops a model in which the influence of risk charges and shadow account options on stakeholders’ value can be quantified and studied. Our numerical results show that the value of shadow account options can be significant and thus come at the risk of expropriating policyholder......This paper studies the economic implications of regulatory systems which allow equityholders of pension companies to not only charge a specific premium to compensate them for their higher risk (compared to policyholders), but also to accumulate these risk charges in a so-called shadow account...... wealth. However, our analysis also shows that this risk can be remedied if proper attention is given to the specific contract design and to the fixing of fair contract parameters at the outset....

Finite volume analysis of temperature effects induced by active MRI implants with cylindrical symmetry: 1. Properly working devices

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Schnorr Jörg

2005-04-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Active Magnetic Resonance Imaging implants are constructed as resonators tuned to the Larmor frequency of a magnetic resonance system with a specific field strength. The resonating circuit may be embedded into or added to the normal metallic implant structure. The resonators build inductively coupled wireless transmit and receive coils and can amplify the signal, normally decreased by eddy currents, inside metallic structures without affecting the rest of the spin ensemble. During magnetic resonance imaging the resonators generate heat, which is additional to the usual one described by the specific absorption rate. This induces temperature increases of the tissue around the circuit paths and inside the lumen of an active implant and may negatively influence patient safety. Methods This investigation provides an overview of the supplementary power absorbed by active implants with a cylindrical geometry, corresponding to vessel implants such as stents, stent grafts or vena cava filters. The knowledge of the overall absorbed power is used in a finite volume analysis to estimate temperature maps around different implant structures inside homogeneous tissue under worst-case assumptions. The "worst-case scenario" assumes thermal heat conduction without blood perfusion inside the tissue around the implant and mostly without any cooling due to blood flow inside vessels. Results The additional power loss of a resonator is proportional to the volume and the quality factor, as well as the field strength of the MRI system and the specific absorption rate of the applied sequence. For properly working devices the finite volume analysis showed only tolerable heating during MRI investigations in most cases. Only resonators transforming a few hundred mW into heat may reach temperature increases over 5 K. This requires resonators with volumes of several ten cubic centimeters, short inductor circuit paths with only a few 10 cm and a quality

Finite volume analysis of temperature effects induced by active MRI implants with cylindrical symmetry: 1. Properly working devices.

Science.gov (United States)

Busch, Martin H J; Vollmann, Wolfgang; Schnorr, Jörg; Grönemeyer, Dietrich H W

2005-04-08

Active Magnetic Resonance Imaging implants are constructed as resonators tuned to the Larmor frequency of a magnetic resonance system with a specific field strength. The resonating circuit may be embedded into or added to the normal metallic implant structure. The resonators build inductively coupled wireless transmit and receive coils and can amplify the signal, normally decreased by eddy currents, inside metallic structures without affecting the rest of the spin ensemble. During magnetic resonance imaging the resonators generate heat, which is additional to the usual one described by the specific absorption rate. This induces temperature increases of the tissue around the circuit paths and inside the lumen of an active implant and may negatively influence patient safety. This investigation provides an overview of the supplementary power absorbed by active implants with a cylindrical geometry, corresponding to vessel implants such as stents, stent grafts or vena cava filters. The knowledge of the overall absorbed power is used in a finite volume analysis to estimate temperature maps around different implant structures inside homogeneous tissue under worst-case assumptions. The "worst-case scenario" assumes thermal heat conduction without blood perfusion inside the tissue around the implant and mostly without any cooling due to blood flow inside vessels. The additional power loss of a resonator is proportional to the volume and the quality factor, as well as the field strength of the MRI system and the specific absorption rate of the applied sequence. For properly working devices the finite volume analysis showed only tolerable heating during MRI investigations in most cases. Only resonators transforming a few hundred mW into heat may reach temperature increases over 5 K. This requires resonators with volumes of several ten cubic centimeters, short inductor circuit paths with only a few 10 cm and a quality factor above ten. Using MR sequences, for which the MRI

Flood risk analysis procedure for nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wagner, D.P.

1982-01-01

This paper describes a methodology and procedure for determining the impact of floods on nuclear power plant risk. The procedures are based on techniques of fault tree and event tree analysis and use the logic of these techniques to determine the effects of a flood on system failure probability and accident sequence occurrence frequency. The methodology can be applied independently or as an add-on analysis for an existing risk assessment. Each stage of the analysis yields useful results such as the critical flood level, failure flood level, and the flood's contribution to accident sequence occurrence frequency. The results of applications show the effects of floods on the risk from nuclear power plants analyzed in the Reactor Safety Study

Computing Proper Equilibria of Zero-Sum Games

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Miltersen, Peter Bro; Sørensen, Troels Bjerre

2007-01-01

We show that a proper equilibrium of a matrix game can be found in polynomial time by solving a linear (in the number of pure strategies of the two players) number of linear programs of roughly the same dimensions as the standard linear programs describing the Nash equilibria of the game....

Modeling multipulsing transition in ring cavity lasers with proper orthogonal decomposition

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ding, Edwin; Shlizerman, Eli; Kutz, J. Nathan

2010-01-01

A low-dimensional model is constructed via the proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) to characterize the multipulsing phenomenon in a ring cavity laser mode locked by a saturable absorber. The onset of the multipulsing transition is characterized by an oscillatory state (created by a Hopf bifurcation) that is then itself destabilized to a double-pulse configuration (by a fold bifurcation). A four-mode POD analysis, which uses the principal components, or singular value decomposition modes, of the mode-locked laser, provides a simple analytic framework for a complete characterization of the entire transition process and its associated bifurcations. These findings are in good agreement with the full governing equation.

45 CFR 170.423 - Principles of proper conduct for ONC-ATCBs.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... 45 Public Welfare 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Principles of proper conduct for ONC-ATCBs. 170... § 170.423 Principles of proper conduct for ONC-ATCBs. An ONC-ATCB shall: (a) Operate its certification... EHR Module developer conspicuously include the following text on its Web site and in all marketing...

25 CFR 87.12 - Insuring the proper performance of approved plans.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-04-01

... 25 Indians 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Insuring the proper performance of approved plans. 87.12... DISTRIBUTION OF INDIAN JUDGMENT FUNDS § 87.12 Insuring the proper performance of approved plans. A timetable... regarding the maintenance of the timetable, a full accounting of any per capita distribution, and the...

32 CFR 725.7 - Contents of a proper request or demand.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... 32 National Defense 5 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Contents of a proper request or demand. 725.7 Section 725.7 National Defense Department of Defense (Continued) DEPARTMENT OF THE NAVY PERSONNEL RELEASE... § 725.7 Contents of a proper request or demand. (a) Routine requests. If official information is sought...

Dimension invariants for groups admitting a cocompact model for proper actions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Degrijse, Dieter Dries; Martínez-Pérez, Conchita

2016-01-01

Let G be a group that admits a cocompact classifying space for proper actions X. We derive a formula for the Bredon cohomological dimension for proper actions of G in terms of the relative cohomology with compact support of certain pairs of subcomplexes of X. We use this formula to compute the Br...

General Concepts Regarding Risk Appetite

OpenAIRE

Ana-Maria Dinu

2014-01-01

Risk appetite is a very complex system, therefore one of the most important element of a company’s enterprise risk management (ERM) is the risk appetite defining. A proper risk management means making good choices towards the risks a company faces in order to achieve its objectives and measures to mitigate those risks, not to avoid them. Therefore, the moment risk appetite is understood and clearly defined can become a powerful tool both for managing the occurred risks and business performanc...

Ontological Analysis of the Project Risk Management Concept ‘Risk’

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Uzulāns Juris

2018-02-01

Full Text Available The aim of the current research series is to examine the definitions of the concept ‘risk’ and analyze the concepts used in the definitions of ‘risk’ in the sources of these definitions in order to perform the ontological analysis of the concept of ‘risk’. Ontological and epistemological analysis of the concepts in the definition of the concept ‘risk’ was used to answer the question what ‘risk’ means in project management. This investigation represents a part of the research series where the ontological, epistemological and methodological analysis of project risk is performed with the aim to improve risk registers and risk management as a whole. In the previous studies the author analyzed the concept of ‘event’ that defines the content of the concept ‘risk’. The use of ‘event’ was analyzed in different sources to find out how the concept should be used. The ontological, epistemological and methodological analysis of the definitions of the concept ‘risk’ is the theoretical foundation for risk register creation because it is possible to create complete and understandable register for the participants of the project risk management process. The author believes that the conducted research helps establish confidence that ontological analysis is the method that together with the epistemological and methodological analysis provides opportunity to perform analysis of risk management sources aimed at improving risk management. The results of the study cannot be considered sufficient for deriving valid conclusions about project risk management and developing recommendations for improving risk management with regard to the content of the risk register. For valid conclusions and recommendations, a deeper research is needed which, first of all, would analyze a larger number of sources.

Risk analysis of alternative energy sources

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kazmer, D.R.

1982-01-01

The author explores two points raised by Miller Spangler in a January 1981 issue: public perception of risks involving nuclear power plants relative to those of conventional plants and criteria for evaluating the way risk analyses are made. On the first point, he concludes that translating public attitudes into the experts' language of probability and risk could provide better information and understanding of both the attitudes and the risks. Viewing risk analysis methodologies as filters which help to test historical change, he suggests that the lack of information favors a lay jury approach for energy decisions. Spangler responds that Congress is an example of lay decision making, but that a lay jury, given public disinterest and polarization, would probably not improve social justice on the nuclear issue. 5 references, 4 figures

PropeR: a multi disciplinary EPR system

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van der Linden, Helma; Boers, Gerrit; Tange, Huibert; Talmon, Jan; Hasman, Arie

2003-01-01

This article describes the architecture of an EPR system developed for the PropeR project. This EPR system not only aims at supporting home care of stroke patients, but is also designed in such a way that it can be ported to other medical services without much effort. We will briefly describe the

The watchdog role of risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Reijen, G. van; Vinck, W.

1983-01-01

The reason why the risks of large-scale technology attract more attention lies in the fact that accidents would have more disastrous results and in the fact that it is probably more attractive to study the risks of some large projects than to do the same for a greater number of smaller projects. Within this presentation there will be some opening remarks on the Role of the Commission of the European Community with regard to accident prevention. The development of the concept of quantitative risks is dealt with. This development leads to a combinded of deterministic and probabilistic methods. The presentation concludes with some critical remarks on quantitative risk analysis and its use. (orig./HP) [de

Mastery of risks and operating safety, risks and efficiencies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2006-01-01

A proper management of ones risks consists in acting to exert prevention and protection capacities against the negative consequences of an event, but also by committing oneself into an offensive approach allowing to improve efficiency, quality and availability. Safety and efficiencies are mutual reinforcing goals aiming at ensuring the perenniality of industries and services. The implementation of a risk management approach in an industrial environment allows to reach a better reactiveness and to increase the efficiency of a system by the mastery of organization and processes. The activities in concern are those of industries and services: transports, energy and environment, automotive industry, petrochemistry, chemistry, food, space, health, defense industries, telecommunication, mining industry, information systems, textile industry, finances.. The topics approached during this meeting treat of: the relevance of risk-abatement resources with respect to risks criticality; the consistent management of uncertainties with respect to stakes; the mastery of components aging and the expression of aging-dependent availability, maintenance and safety policies; the expression of obsolescence-related renewing policies; the operating safety tools and methods applied to complex and computerized-controlled systems; the integration of social, organizational and human factors in technical decisions and companies management; transverse and global risk analysis and decision-aid approaches; the vigilance culture; crisis anticipation and management; the experience feedback on technical and organisational aspects; efficiency and risk mastery indicators; cost/benefit approach in risk management, and economic intelligence approaches. Nineteen presentations have been selected which deal with the mastery of risks and the operating safety at nuclear facilities. (J.S.)

The use of current risk analysis tools evaluated towards preventing external domino accidents

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Reniers, Genserik L L; Dullaert, W.; Ale, B. J.M.; Soudan, K.

Risk analysis is an essential tool for company safety policy. Risk analysis consists of identifying and evaluating all possible risks. The efficiency of risk analysis tools depends on the rigueur of identifying and evaluating all possible risks. The diversity in risk analysis procedures is such that

Proper packaging for food and no-food products to avoid injuries.

Science.gov (United States)

Passali, Desiderio; Gregori, Dario; Foltran, Francesca

2012-05-14

This paper aims to present data on proper packaging for food and no-food products to avoid injuries. Data collection was made from the Susy Safe data base and the results of the literature research. Fatal and near fatal foreign bodies injuries may occur at any age, however it is a particular problem for infants and young children due to a variety of predisposing factors. Safety packaging is therefore a landmark and a model for accident prevention. Taken the lack of researches and specificity on this subject, it is warmly suggested that a broader and deeper exploration, both at customer's and public health levels, has to be made, highlighting major risks and complications. Packaging classes are extremely composite, therefore accuracy in data registry must be achieved, since from a preventive point of view it is basilar not only knowing the nature of the foreign body but also having information on its origin. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Impact of Training on Improving Proper Handwashing Practices among Elementary School Students

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Theruna Huthamaputiran

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Background: Hand washing is among the most effective ways to prevent diseases. In Indonesia, only a quarter of the entire population practice proper handwashing techniques. Of these, children are the most vulnerable group for contracting diseases. Nevertheless, they also are crucial agent for behavior transformation as they are keen and open to new ideas. Therefore, this study was conducted to determine if training would have an improvement on a proper hand washing practices among elementary school students. Methods:An observational descriptive study design using random sampling was conducted from September to November 2013 in Jatinangor Subdistrict, West Java, Indonesia using primary data of one hundred elementary school students from four elementary schools. Questionnaires were given after informed consent. A demonstration on hand washing techniques and education on proper hand washing practices was then given. Two weeks later, the same questionnaire was given to measure the influence of the training. The collected data were presented using frequency tabulation. Results: Before the training on proper hand washing practices was conducted, only 86.9% students were practicing it properly. After the training was given, 90.7% of the students were doing it properly. For the hand washing technique, only 66.8% of students knew the correct steps before the intervention was given and 78.7% students did them correctly after the intervention. Conclusions:The training shows an overall improvement on the students’ hand washing practices.   DOI: 10.15850/amj.v4n2.1073

Dietary patterns and depression risk: A meta-analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Ye; Lv, Mei-Rong; Wei, Yan-Jin; Sun, Ling; Zhang, Ji-Xiang; Zhang, Huai-Guo; Li, Bin

2017-07-01

Although some studies have reported potential associations of dietary patterns with depression risk, a consistent perspective hasn't been estimated to date. Therefore, we conducted this meta-analysis to evaluate the relation between dietary patterns and the risk of depression. A literature research was conducted searching MEDLINE and EMBASE databases up to September 2016. In total, 21 studies from ten countries met the inclusion criteria and were included in the present meta-analysis. A dietary pattern characterized by a high intakes of fruit, vegetables, whole grain, fish, olive oil, low-fat dairy and antioxidants and low intakes of animal foods was apparently associated with a decreased risk of depression. A dietary pattern characterized by a high consumption of red and/or processed meat, refined grains, sweets, high-fat dairy products, butter, potatoes and high-fat gravy, and low intakes of fruits and vegetables is associated with an increased risk of depression. The results of this meta-analysis suggest that healthy pattern may decrease the risk of depression, whereas western-style may increase the risk of depression. However, more randomized controlled trails and cohort studies are urgently required to confirm this findings. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Benefit-Risk Analysis for Decision-Making: An Approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Raju, G K; Gurumurthi, K; Domike, R

2016-12-01

The analysis of benefit and risk is an important aspect of decision-making throughout the drug lifecycle. In this work, the use of a benefit-risk analysis approach to support decision-making was explored. The proposed approach builds on the qualitative US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approach to include a more explicit analysis based on international standards and guidance that enables aggregation and comparison of benefit and risk on a common basis and a lifecycle focus. The approach is demonstrated on six decisions over the lifecycle (e.g., accelerated approval, withdrawal, and traditional approval) using two case studies: natalizumab for multiple sclerosis (MS) and bedaquiline for multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB). © 2016 American Society for Clinical Pharmacology and Therapeutics.

RISK ANALYSIS FOR SHIP CONVERTING PROJECT ACCOMPLISHMENT (Case study of KRI KP Converting Project

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dimas Endro W

2013-10-01

Full Text Available Ship converting has become as prospective activity in ship building area. Operational and economical aspect are the most dominant rationale. Baseon a new fuction of converted ship, a task list which contain several jobs that must be done is listed. This accomplishment schedule not only contain a task list, but also duration for certain job title. In practical apllication job duration is maintained based on experience of project manager.  Further more, total accomplish duration is setted as time accomplishment for the project. This setted time has become reference for the project bid. Occasionaly, if accomplishment time which offered is strict, than schedule slip become as potencial nightmare. For this situation, project manager has had a cristal clearconsideration to select a proper decision wheter he will take the tender offer or not. practically, project mananger has layed on his experience to handle previous project and face  penalty if the project delayed. This paper focussed on how to measure tender offer based on risk analysis, specially for converted ship tender which has a strike time accomplishment.A new application method to analysis proposed tender based on time and penalty parameter has become a topic of this paper.

Methodology for risk-based analysis of technical specifications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vesely, W.E.; Gaertner, J.P.; Wagner, D.P.

1985-01-01

Part of the effort by EPRI to apply probabilistic risk assessment methods and results to the solution of utility problems involves the investigation of methods for risk-based analysis of technical specifications. The culmination of this investigation is the SOCRATES computer code developed by Battelle's Columbus Laboratories to assist in the evaluation of technical specifications of nuclear power plants. The program is designed to use information found in PRAs to re-evaluate risk for changes in component allowed outage times (AOTs) and surveillance test intervals (STIs). The SOCRATES program is a unique and important tool for technical specification evaluations. The detailed component unavailability model allows a detailed analysis of AOT and STI contributions to risk. Explicit equations allow fast and inexpensive calculations. Because the code is designed to accept ranges of parameters and to save results of calculations that do not change during the analysis, sensitivity studies are efficiently performed and results are clearly displayed

Implementing the Bayesian paradigm in risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Aven, T.; Kvaloey, J.T.

2002-01-01

The Bayesian paradigm comprises a unified and consistent framework for analyzing and expressing risk. Yet, we see rather few examples of applications where the full Bayesian setting has been adopted with specifications of priors of unknown parameters. In this paper, we discuss some of the practical challenges of implementing Bayesian thinking and methods in risk analysis, emphasizing the introduction of probability models and parameters and associated uncertainty assessments. We conclude that there is a need for a pragmatic view in order to 'successfully' apply the Bayesian approach, such that we can do the assignments of some of the probabilities without adopting the somewhat sophisticated procedure of specifying prior distributions of parameters. A simple risk analysis example is presented to illustrate ideas

Assigned value improves memory of proper names.

Science.gov (United States)

Festini, Sara B; Hartley, Alan A; Tauber, Sarah K; Rhodes, Matthew G

2013-01-01

Names are more difficult to remember than other personal information such as occupations. The current research examined the influence of assigned point value on memory and metamemory judgements for names and occupations to determine whether incentive can improve recall of proper names. In Experiment 1 participants studied face-name and face-occupation pairs assigned 1 or 10 points, made judgements of learning, and were given a cued recall test. High-value names were recalled more often than low-value names. However, recall of occupations was not influenced by value. In Experiment 2 meaningless nonwords were used for both names and occupations. The name difficulty disappeared, and value influenced recall of both names and occupations. Thus value similarly influenced names and occupations when meaningfulness was held constant. In Experiment 3 participants were required to use overt rote rehearsal for all items. Value did not boost recall of high-value names, suggesting that differential processing could not be implemented to improve memory. Thus incentives may improve memory for proper names by motivating people to engage in selective rehearsal and effortful elaborative processing.

Quantitative Risk Analysis: Method And Process

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anass BAYAGA

2010-03-01

Full Text Available Recent and past studies (King III report, 2009: 73-75; Stoney 2007;Committee of Sponsoring Organisation-COSO, 2004, Bartell, 2003; Liebenberg and Hoyt, 2003; Reason, 2000; Markowitz 1957 lament that although, the introduction of quantifying risk to enhance degree of objectivity in finance for instance was quite parallel to its development in the manufacturing industry, it is not the same in Higher Education Institution (HEI. In this regard, the objective of the paper was to demonstrate the methods and process of Quantitative Risk Analysis (QRA through likelihood of occurrence of risk (phase I. This paper serves as first of a two-phased study, which sampled hundred (100 risk analysts in a University in the greater Eastern Cape Province of South Africa.The analysis of likelihood of occurrence of risk by logistic regression and percentages were conducted to investigate whether there were a significant difference or not between groups (analyst in respect of QRA.The Hosmer and Lemeshow test was non-significant with a chi-square(X2 =8.181; p = 0.300, which indicated that there was a good model fit, since the data did not significantly deviate from the model. The study concluded that to derive an overall likelihood rating that indicated the probability that a potential risk may be exercised within the construct of an associated threat environment, the following governing factors must be considered: (1 threat source motivation and capability (2 nature of the vulnerability (3 existence and effectiveness of current controls (methods and process.

Risk Analysis for Performance Improvement in a Romanian Pharmaceutical Company

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dana Corina Deselnicu

2018-05-01

Full Text Available The paper presents risk management analysis carried out to investigate the operations of a Romanian company dealing with the distribution of pharmaceutical products. The main risks challenging the company were identified, described and classified, providing a scientific base for further analysis. Then, the identified inherent risks were evaluated using tools as the risk index method and the risk matrix in order to emphasize their tolerance level. According to the results of the evaluation, risk mitigation strategies and measures were advanced for the management of the analysed risks. Relevant conclusions were drawn from the experience.

The Importance of a Proper Selection Area to be Biopsied in Nodular Leukoplakia: a Case Report

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Paulo Sérgio da Silva Santos

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Nodular leukoplakia is a non-homogeneous type of oral leukoplakia presenting a white surface with verrucous, nodular, ulcerated or erythematous features with a greater risk of malignant transformation when compared to the homogeneous type. Common sites of involvement include lip commissures, buccal mucosa and soft palate. It is often associated with epithelial dysplasia or carcinoma and requires detailed microscopic assessment and regular follow-up. The importance of a proper selection of the area to be biopsied and the close teamwork between a dentist and oral pathologist is the basis of providing an accurate final diagnosis.

Risk analysis and reliability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Uppuluri, V.R.R.

1979-01-01

Mathematical foundations of risk analysis are addressed. The importance of having the same probability space in order to compare different experiments is pointed out. Then the following topics are discussed: consequences as random variables with infinite expectations; the phenomenon of rare events; series-parallel systems and different kinds of randomness that could be imposed on such systems; and the problem of consensus of estimates of expert opinion

Assessment report on NRP sub-theme 'Risk Analysis'

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Biesiot, W.; Hendrickx, L.; Olsthoorn, A.A.

1995-01-01

An overview and assessment are presented of the three research projects carried out under NRP funding that concern risk-related topics: (1) The risks of nonlinear climate changes, (2) Socio-economic and policy aspects of changes in incidence and intensity of extreme (weather) events, and (3) Characterizing the risks: a comparative analysis of the risks of global warming and of relevant policy strategies. 1 tab., 6 refs

Applications of probabilistic risk analysis in nuclear criticality safety design

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chang, J.K.

1992-01-01

Many documents have been prepared that try to define the scope of the criticality analysis and that suggest adding probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) to the deterministic safety analysis. The report of the US Department of Energy (DOE) AL 5481.1B suggested that an accident is credible if the occurrence probability is >1 x 10 -6 /yr. The draft DOE 5480 safety analysis report suggested that safety analyses should include the application of methods such as deterministic safety analysis, risk assessment, reliability engineering, common-cause failure analysis, human reliability analysis, and human factor safety analysis techniques. The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) report NRC SG830.110 suggested that major safety analysis methods should include but not be limited to risk assessment, reliability engineering, and human factor safety analysis. All of these suggestions have recommended including PRA in the traditional criticality analysis

GIS risk analysis of hazardous materials transport

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anders, C.; Olsten, J.

1991-01-01

The Geographic Information System (GIS) was used to assess the risks and vulnerability of transporting hazardous materials and wastes (such as gasoline, explosives, poisons, etc) on the Arizona highway system. This paper discusses the methodology that was utilized, and the application of GIS systems to risk analysis problems

APPROPRIATE ALLOCATION OF CONTINGENCY USING RISK ANALYSIS METHODOLOGY

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andi Andi

2004-01-01

Full Text Available Many cost overruns in the world of construction are attributable to either unforeseen events or foreseen events for which uncertainty was not appropriately accommodated. It is argued that a significant improvement to project management performance may result from greater attention to the process of analyzing project risks. The objective of this paper is to propose a risk analysis methodology for appropriate allocation of contingency in project cost estimation. In the first step, project risks will be identified. Influence diagramming technique is employed to identify and to show how the risks affect the project cost elements and also the relationships among the risks themselves. The second step is to assess the project costs with regards to the risks under consideration. Using a linguistic approach, the degree of uncertainty of identified project risks is assessed and quantified. The problem of dependency between risks is taken into consideration during this analysis. For the final step, as the main purpose of this paper, a method for allocating appropriate contingency is presented. Two types of contingencies, i.e. project contingency and management reserve are proposed to accommodate the risks. An illustrative example is presented at the end to show the application of the methodology.

The integration methods of fuzzy fault mode and effect analysis and fault tree analysis for risk analysis of yogurt production

Science.gov (United States)

Aprilia, Ayu Rizky; Santoso, Imam; Ekasari, Dhita Murita

2017-05-01

Yogurt is a product based on milk, which has beneficial effects for health. The process for the production of yogurt is very susceptible to failure because it involves bacteria and fermentation. For an industry, the risks may cause harm and have a negative impact. In order for a product to be successful and profitable, it requires the analysis of risks that may occur during the production process. Risk analysis can identify the risks in detail and prevent as well as determine its handling, so that the risks can be minimized. Therefore, this study will analyze the risks of the production process with a case study in CV.XYZ. The method used in this research is the Fuzzy Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (fuzzy FMEA) and Fault Tree Analysis (FTA). The results showed that there are 6 risks from equipment variables, raw material variables, and process variables. Those risks include the critical risk, which is the risk of a lack of an aseptic process, more specifically if starter yogurt is damaged due to contamination by fungus or other bacteria and a lack of sanitation equipment. The results of quantitative analysis of FTA showed that the highest probability is the probability of the lack of an aseptic process, with a risk of 3.902%. The recommendations for improvement include establishing SOPs (Standard Operating Procedures), which include the process, workers, and environment, controlling the starter of yogurt and improving the production planning and sanitation equipment using hot water immersion.

Analysis of risk factors for persistent infection of asymptomatic women with high-risk human papilloma virus.

Science.gov (United States)

Shi, Nianmin; Lu, Qiang; Zhang, Jiao; Li, Li; Zhang, Junnan; Zhang, Fanglei; Dong, Yanhong; Zhang, Xinyue; Zhang, Zheng; Gao, Wenhui

2017-06-03

This study aims to prevent persistentinfection, reduce the incidence of cervical cancer, and improve women's health by understanding the theoretical basis of the risk factors for continuous infection of asymptomatic women with high-risk human papilloma virus (HPV) strains via information collected, which includes the persistent infection rate and the most prevalent HPV strain types of high risk to asymptomatic women in the high-risk area of cervical cancer in Linfen, Shanxi Province. Based on the method of cluster sampling, locations were chosen from the industrial county and agricultural county of Linfen, Shanxi Province, namely the Xiangfen and Quwo counties. Use of the convenience sampling (CS) method enables the identification of women who have sex but without symptoms of abnormal cervix for analyzing risk factors of HPV-DNA detection and performing a retrospective questionnaire survey in these 2 counties. Firstly, cervical exfoliated cell samples were collected for thin-layer liquid-based cytology test (TCT), and simultaneously testing high-risk type HPV DNA, then samples with positive testing results were retested to identify the infected HPV types. The 6-month period of testing was done to derive the 6-month persistent infection rate. The retrospective survey included concepts addressed in the questionnaire: basic situation of the research objects, menstrual history, marital status, pregnancy history, sexual habits and other aspects. The questionnaire was divided into a case group and a comparison group, which are based on the high-risk HPV-DNA testing result to ascertain whether or not there is persistent infection. Statistical analysis employed Epidate3.1 software for date entry, SPSS17.0 for date statistical analysis. Select statistic charts, Chi-Square Analysis, single-factor analysis and multivariate Logistic regression analysis to analyze the protective factors and risk factors of high-risk HPV infection. Risk factors are predicted by using the

The application of CFD to hydrogen risk analysis in nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang Hui; Han Xu; Chang Meng; Wang Xiaofeng; Wang Shuguo; Lu Xinhua; Wu Lin

2013-01-01

Status of the hydrogen risk analysis method is systemically summarized in this paper and the advantages and limits of CFD (Computational Fluid Dynamic) in hydrogen risk analysis is discussed. The international experimental programs on the CFD hydrogen risk analysis are introduced in this paper. The application of CFD to nuclear power plant (NPP) hydrogen risk analysis is introduced in detail by taking EPR and Ling'ao NPP for example. In these bases, the CFD development prospect of hydrogen risk analysis is also summarized in this paper. (authors)

A free and open source QGIS plugin for flood risk analysis: FloodRisk

Science.gov (United States)

Albano, Raffaele; Sole, Aurelia; Mancusi, Leonardo

2016-04-01

An analysis of global statistics shows a substantial increase in flood damage over the past few decades. Moreover, it is expected that flood risk will continue to rise due to the combined effect of increasing numbers of people and economic assets in risk-prone areas and the effects of climate change. In order to increase the resilience of European economies and societies, the improvement of risk assessment and management has been pursued in the last years. This results in a wide range of flood analysis models of different complexities with substantial differences in underlying components needed for its implementation, as geographical, hydrological and social differences demand specific approaches in the different countries. At present, it is emerging the need of promote the creation of open, transparent, reliable and extensible tools for a comprehensive, context-specific and applicable flood risk analysis. In this context, the free and open-source Quantum GIS (QGIS) plugin "FloodRisk" is a good starting point to address this objective. The vision of the developers of this free and open source software (FOSS) is to combine the main features of state-of-the-art science, collaboration, transparency and interoperability in an initiative to assess and communicate flood risk worldwide and to assist authorities to facilitate the quality and fairness of flood risk management at multiple scales. Among the scientific community, this type of activity can be labelled as "participatory research", intended as adopting a set of techniques that "are interactive and collaborative" and reproducible, "providing a meaningful research experience that both promotes learning and generates knowledge and research data through a process of guided discovery"' (Albano et al., 2015). Moreover, this FOSS geospatial approach can lowering the financial barriers to understanding risks at national and sub-national levels through a spatio-temporal domain and can provide better and more complete

Liquidity Risk and its Management in Lithuanian Banking System

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Erika Bareikaitė

2014-04-01

Full Text Available Banks are the main part of financial sector in each economy and strength of banking system becomes vital for ensuringfavourable economic stability and growth. Recent failure of two commercial banks in Lithuania showed that managershaven’t evaluated liquidity risk or haven’t dealt with it properly. The tasks of the paper are to investigate Lithuanian banksposition towards liquidity risk, analyse what kind of management tools banks use for ensuring favourable position towardsliquidity and to explore the liquidity influence to profitability in Lithuanian banking sector. The article examines liquidity andits management processes in Lithuanian banking sector. Description of liquidity importance is presented. Liquidity risk and itsmeasurement as well as the ways of managing the above mentioned risk is analysed in the article. In order to analyse the relationshipbetween liquidity risk and profitability of banks, analysis of scientific literature, research synthesis and generalizationshave been made.

Chemical risk evaluation, importance of the risk analysis framework uses: Latin America development restrictions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Carrillo, M.

2013-01-01

The power point presentation is about reach and results of the risk analysis in Venezuela, chemical dangers in food, human damage, injuries , technologies news in fodd development, toxicity, microbiological risk, technical recommendations

Spent fuel pool risk analysis for the Dukovany NPP

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hust' ak, S.; Jaros, M.; Kubicek, J. [UJV Rez, a.s., Husinec-Rez (Czech Republic)

2013-07-01

UJV Rez, a.s. maintains a Living Probabilistic Safety Assessment (Living PSA) program for Dukovany Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) in the Czech Republic. This project has been established as a framework for activities related to risk assessment and to support for risk-informed decision making at this plant. The most extensively used PSA application at Dukovany NPP is risk monitoring of instantaneous (point-in-time) risk during plant operation, especially for the purpose of configuration risk management during plant scheduled outages to avoid risk significant configurations. The scope of PSA for Dukovany NPP includes also determination of a risk contribution from spent fuel pool (SFP) operation to provide recommendations for the prevention and mitigation of SFP accidents and to be applicable for configuration risk management. This paper describes the analysis of internal initiating events (IEs) in PSA for Dukovany NPP, which can contribute to the risk from SFP operation. The analysis of those IEs was done more thoroughly in the PSA for Dukovany NPP in order to be used in instantaneous risk monitoring. (orig.)

New risk metrics and mathematical tools for risk analysis: Current and future challenges

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Skandamis, Panagiotis N.; Andritsos, Nikolaos; Psomas, Antonios; Paramythiotis, Spyridon

2015-01-01

The current status of the food safety supply world wide, has led Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and World Health Organization (WHO) to establishing Risk Analysis as the single framework for building food safety control programs. A series of guidelines and reports that detail out the various steps in Risk Analysis, namely Risk Management, Risk Assessment and Risk Communication is available. The Risk Analysis approach enables integration between operational food management systems, such as Hazard Analysis Critical Control Points, public health and governmental decisions. To do that, a series of new Risk Metrics has been established as follows: i) the Appropriate Level of Protection (ALOP), which indicates the maximum numbers of illnesses in a population per annum, defined by quantitative risk assessments, and used to establish; ii) Food Safety Objective (FSO), which sets the maximum frequency and/or concentration of a hazard in a food at the time of consumption that provides or contributes to the ALOP. Given that ALOP is rather a metric of the public health tolerable burden (it addresses the total ‘failure’ that may be handled at a national level), it is difficult to be interpreted into control measures applied at the manufacturing level. Thus, a series of specific objectives and criteria for performance of individual processes and products have been established, all of them assisting in the achievement of FSO and hence, ALOP. In order to achieve FSO, tools quantifying the effect of processes and intrinsic properties of foods on survival and growth of pathogens are essential. In this context, predictive microbiology and risk assessment have offered an important assistance to Food Safety Management. Predictive modelling is the basis of exposure assessment and the development of stochastic and kinetic models, which are also available in the form of Web-based applications, e.g., COMBASE and Microbial Responses Viewer), or introduced into user

New risk metrics and mathematical tools for risk analysis: Current and future challenges

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Skandamis, Panagiotis N., E-mail: pskan@aua.gr; Andritsos, Nikolaos, E-mail: pskan@aua.gr; Psomas, Antonios, E-mail: pskan@aua.gr; Paramythiotis, Spyridon, E-mail: pskan@aua.gr [Laboratory of Food Quality Control and Hygiene, Department of Food Science and Technology, Agricultural University of Athens, Iera Odos 75, 118 55, Athens (Greece)

2015-01-22

The current status of the food safety supply world wide, has led Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and World Health Organization (WHO) to establishing Risk Analysis as the single framework for building food safety control programs. A series of guidelines and reports that detail out the various steps in Risk Analysis, namely Risk Management, Risk Assessment and Risk Communication is available. The Risk Analysis approach enables integration between operational food management systems, such as Hazard Analysis Critical Control Points, public health and governmental decisions. To do that, a series of new Risk Metrics has been established as follows: i) the Appropriate Level of Protection (ALOP), which indicates the maximum numbers of illnesses in a population per annum, defined by quantitative risk assessments, and used to establish; ii) Food Safety Objective (FSO), which sets the maximum frequency and/or concentration of a hazard in a food at the time of consumption that provides or contributes to the ALOP. Given that ALOP is rather a metric of the public health tolerable burden (it addresses the total ‘failure’ that may be handled at a national level), it is difficult to be interpreted into control measures applied at the manufacturing level. Thus, a series of specific objectives and criteria for performance of individual processes and products have been established, all of them assisting in the achievement of FSO and hence, ALOP. In order to achieve FSO, tools quantifying the effect of processes and intrinsic properties of foods on survival and growth of pathogens are essential. In this context, predictive microbiology and risk assessment have offered an important assistance to Food Safety Management. Predictive modelling is the basis of exposure assessment and the development of stochastic and kinetic models, which are also available in the form of Web-based applications, e.g., COMBASE and Microbial Responses Viewer), or introduced into user

New risk metrics and mathematical tools for risk analysis: Current and future challenges

Science.gov (United States)

Skandamis, Panagiotis N.; Andritsos, Nikolaos; Psomas, Antonios; Paramythiotis, Spyridon

2015-01-01

The current status of the food safety supply world wide, has led Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and World Health Organization (WHO) to establishing Risk Analysis as the single framework for building food safety control programs. A series of guidelines and reports that detail out the various steps in Risk Analysis, namely Risk Management, Risk Assessment and Risk Communication is available. The Risk Analysis approach enables integration between operational food management systems, such as Hazard Analysis Critical Control Points, public health and governmental decisions. To do that, a series of new Risk Metrics has been established as follows: i) the Appropriate Level of Protection (ALOP), which indicates the maximum numbers of illnesses in a population per annum, defined by quantitative risk assessments, and used to establish; ii) Food Safety Objective (FSO), which sets the maximum frequency and/or concentration of a hazard in a food at the time of consumption that provides or contributes to the ALOP. Given that ALOP is rather a metric of the public health tolerable burden (it addresses the total `failure' that may be handled at a national level), it is difficult to be interpreted into control measures applied at the manufacturing level. Thus, a series of specific objectives and criteria for performance of individual processes and products have been established, all of them assisting in the achievement of FSO and hence, ALOP. In order to achieve FSO, tools quantifying the effect of processes and intrinsic properties of foods on survival and growth of pathogens are essential. In this context, predictive microbiology and risk assessment have offered an important assistance to Food Safety Management. Predictive modelling is the basis of exposure assessment and the development of stochastic and kinetic models, which are also available in the form of Web-based applications, e.g., COMBASE and Microbial Responses Viewer), or introduced into user-friendly softwares

Risk analysis for decision support in electricity distribution system asset management: methods and frameworks for analysing intangible risks

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nordgaard, Dag Eirik

2010-04-15

During the last 10 to 15 years electricity distribution companies throughout the world have been ever more focused on asset management as the guiding principle for their activities. Within asset management, risk is a key issue for distribution companies, together with handling of cost and performance. There is now an increased awareness of the need to include risk analyses into the companies' decision making processes. Much of the work on risk in electricity distribution systems has focused on aspects of reliability. This is understandable, since it is surely an important feature of the product delivered by the electricity distribution infrastructure, and it is high on the agenda for regulatory authorities in many countries. However, electricity distribution companies are also concerned with other risks relevant for their decision making. This typically involves intangible risks, such as safety, environmental impacts and company reputation. In contrast to the numerous methodologies developed for reliability risk analysis, there are relatively few applications of structured analyses to support decisions concerning intangible risks, even though they represent an important motivation for decisions taken in electricity distribution companies. The overall objective of this PhD work has been to explore risk analysis methods that can be used to improve and support decision making in electricity distribution system asset management, with an emphasis on the analysis of intangible risks. The main contributions of this thesis can be summarised as: An exploration and testing of quantitative risk analysis (QRA) methods to support decisions concerning intangible risks; The development of a procedure for using life curve models to provide input to QRA models; The development of a framework for risk-informed decision making where QRA are used to analyse selected problems; In addition, the results contribute to clarify the basic concepts of risk, and highlight challenges

Procedures for the elicitation of expert judgements in the probabilistic risk analysis of the long-term effects of radioactive waste repositories: an annotated bibliography

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Watson, S.R.

1993-01-01

This annotated bibliography describes the key literature relevant to the elicitation of expert judgements in radioactive waste management. The bibliography is divided into seven sections; section 2 lists the literature exploring the proper interpretation of probabilities used in Probabilistic Risk Analysis (PRA). Section 3 lists literature describing other calculi for handling uncertainty in a numerical fashion. In section 4 comments are given on how to elicit probabilities from individuals as a measure of subjective degrees of belief and section 5 lists the literature concerning how expert judgements can be combined. Sections 6 and 7 list literature giving an overview of the issues involved in PRA for radioactive waste repositories. (author)

[Reliability theory based on quality risk network analysis for Chinese medicine injection].

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Zheng; Kang, Li-Yuan; Fan, Xiao-Hui

2014-08-01

A new risk analysis method based upon reliability theory was introduced in this paper for the quality risk management of Chinese medicine injection manufacturing plants. The risk events including both cause and effect ones were derived in the framework as nodes with a Bayesian network analysis approach. It thus transforms the risk analysis results from failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) into a Bayesian network platform. With its structure and parameters determined, the network can be used to evaluate the system reliability quantitatively with probabilistic analytical appraoches. Using network analysis tools such as GeNie and AgenaRisk, we are able to find the nodes that are most critical to influence the system reliability. The importance of each node to the system can be quantitatively evaluated by calculating the effect of the node on the overall risk, and minimization plan can be determined accordingly to reduce their influences and improve the system reliability. Using the Shengmai injection manufacturing plant of SZYY Ltd as a user case, we analyzed the quality risk with both static FMEA analysis and dynamic Bayesian Network analysis. The potential risk factors for the quality of Shengmai injection manufacturing were identified with the network analysis platform. Quality assurance actions were further defined to reduce the risk and improve the product quality.

Arctic shipping and risks: Emergency categories and response capacities

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Marchenko, Nataly A.; Andreassen, Natalia; Borch, Odd Jarl

2018-01-01

The sea ice in the Arctic has shrunk significantly in the last decades. The transport pattern has as a result partly changed with more traffic in remote areas. This change may influence the risk pattern. The critical factors are harsh weather, ice conditions, remoteness and vulnerability of natur...... are rare, there are limited statistics available for Arctic maritime accidents. Hence, this study offers a qualitative analysis and an expert-based risk assessment. Implications for the emergency preparedness system of the Arctic region are discussed........ In this paper, we look into the risk of accidents in Atlantic Arctic based on previous ship accidents and the changes in maritime activity. The risk has to be assessed to ensure a proper level of emergency response. The consequences of incidents depend on the incident type, scale and location. As accidents...

Dietary patterns and colorectal cancer risk: a meta-analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Feng, Yu-Liang; Shu, Long; Zheng, Pei-Fen; Zhang, Xiao-Yan; Si, Cai-Juan; Yu, Xiao-Long; Gao, Wei; Zhang, Lun

2017-05-01

The analysis of dietary patterns has recently drawn considerable attention as a method of investigating the association between the overall whole diet and the risk of colorectal cancer. However, the results have yielded conflicting findings. Here, we carried out a meta-analysis to identify the association between dietary patterns and the risk of colorectal cancer. A total of 40 studies fulfilled the inclusion criteria and were included in this meta-analysis. The highest category of 'healthy' dietary pattern compared with the lowest category was apparently associated with a decreased risk for colorectal cancer [odds ratio (OR)=0.75; confidence interval (CI): 0.68-0.83; Pcolorectal cancer was shown for the highest compared with the lowest category of a 'western-style' dietary pattern (OR=1.40; CI: 1.26-1.56; Pcolorectal cancer in the highest compared with the lowest category of 'alcohol-consumption' pattern (OR=1.44; CI: 1.13-1.82; P=0.003). The results of this meta-analysis indicate that a 'healthy' dietary pattern may decrease the risk of colorectal cancer, whereas 'western-style' and 'alcohol-consumption' patterns may increase the risk of colorectal cancer.

Proper Methodology and Methods of Collecting and Analyzing Slavery Data: An Examination of the Global Slavery Index

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andrew Guth

2014-11-01

Full Text Available The Global Slavery Index aims to, among other objectives, recognize the forms, size, and scope of slavery worldwide as well as the strengths and weaknesses of individual countries. An analysis of the Index’s methods exposes significant and critical weaknesses and raises questions into its replicability and validity. The Index may prove more valuable in the future if proper methods are implemented, but the longer improper methods are used the more damage is done to the public policy debate on slavery by advancing data and policy that is not based on sound methodology. To implement proper methods, a committee of sophisticated methodologists needs to develop measurement tools and constantly analyze and refine these methods over the years as data is collected.

On proper Shapley values for monotone TU-games

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van den Brink, J.R.; Levinsky, R.; Zeleny, M.

2015-01-01

The Shapley value of a cooperative transferable utility game distributes the dividend of each coalition in the game equally among its members. Given exogenous weights for all players, the corresponding weighted Shapley value distributes the dividends proportionally to their weights. A proper Shapley

Sensitivity Analysis of Launch Vehicle Debris Risk Model

Science.gov (United States)

Gee, Ken; Lawrence, Scott L.

2010-01-01

As part of an analysis of the loss of crew risk associated with an ascent abort system for a manned launch vehicle, a model was developed to predict the impact risk of the debris resulting from an explosion of the launch vehicle on the crew module. The model consisted of a debris catalog describing the number, size and imparted velocity of each piece of debris, a method to compute the trajectories of the debris and a method to calculate the impact risk given the abort trajectory of the crew module. The model provided a point estimate of the strike probability as a function of the debris catalog, the time of abort and the delay time between the abort and destruction of the launch vehicle. A study was conducted to determine the sensitivity of the strike probability to the various model input parameters and to develop a response surface model for use in the sensitivity analysis of the overall ascent abort risk model. The results of the sensitivity analysis and the response surface model are presented in this paper.

Supplemental Hazard Analysis and Risk Assessment - Hydrotreater

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lowry, Peter P. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Wagner, Katie A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

2015-04-01

A supplemental hazard analysis was conducted and quantitative risk assessment performed in response to an independent review comment received by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) from the U.S. Department of Energy Pacific Northwest Field Office (PNSO) against the Hydrotreater/Distillation Column Hazard Analysis Report issued in April 2013. The supplemental analysis used the hazardous conditions documented by the previous April 2013 report as a basis. The conditions were screened and grouped for the purpose of identifying whether additional prudent, practical hazard controls could be identified, using a quantitative risk evaluation to assess the adequacy of the controls and establish a lower level of concern for the likelihood of potential serious accidents. Calculations were performed to support conclusions where necessary.

Uncertainties in repository performance from spatial variability of hydraulic conductivities - statistical estimation and stochastic simulation using PROPER

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lovius, L.; Norman, S.; Kjellbert, N.

1990-02-01

An assessment has been made of the impact of spatial variability on the performance of a KBS-3 type repository. The uncertainties in geohydrologically related performance measures have been investigated using conductivity data from one of the Swedish study sites. The analysis was carried out with the PROPER code and the FSCF10 submodel. (authors)

Revealing the underlying drivers of disaster risk: a global analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Peduzzi, Pascal

2017-04-01

Disasters events are perfect examples of compound events. Disaster risk lies at the intersection of several independent components such as hazard, exposure and vulnerability. Understanding the weight of each component requires extensive standardisation. Here, I show how footprints of past disastrous events were generated using GIS modelling techniques and used for extracting population and economic exposures based on distribution models. Using past event losses, it was possible to identify and quantify a wide range of socio-politico-economic drivers associated with human vulnerability. The analysis was applied to about nine thousand individual past disastrous events covering earthquakes, floods and tropical cyclones. Using a multiple regression analysis on these individual events it was possible to quantify each risk component and assess how vulnerability is influenced by various hazard intensities. The results show that hazard intensity, exposure, poverty, governance as well as other underlying factors (e.g. remoteness) can explain the magnitude of past disasters. Analysis was also performed to highlight the role of future trends in population and climate change and how this may impacts exposure to tropical cyclones in the future. GIS models combined with statistical multiple regression analysis provided a powerful methodology to identify, quantify and model disaster risk taking into account its various components. The same methodology can be applied to various types of risk at local to global scale. This method was applied and developed for the Global Risk Analysis of the Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction (GAR). It was first applied on mortality risk in GAR 2009 and GAR 2011. New models ranging from global assets exposure and global flood hazard models were also recently developed to improve the resolution of the risk analysis and applied through CAPRA software to provide probabilistic economic risk assessments such as Average Annual Losses (AAL

Risk analysis of heat recovery steam generator with semi quantitative risk based inspection API 581

Science.gov (United States)

Prayogo, Galang Sandy; Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky; Kim, Seon Jin

2016-04-01

Corrosion is a major problem that most often occurs in the power plant. Heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) is an equipment that has a high risk to the power plant. The impact of corrosion damage causing HRSG power plant stops operating. Furthermore, it could be threaten the safety of employees. The Risk Based Inspection (RBI) guidelines by the American Petroleum Institute (API) 58 has been used to risk analysis in the HRSG 1. By using this methodology, the risk that caused by unexpected failure as a function of the probability and consequence of failure can be estimated. This paper presented a case study relating to the risk analysis in the HRSG, starting with a summary of the basic principles and procedures of risk assessment and applying corrosion RBI for process industries. The risk level of each HRSG equipment were analyzed: HP superheater has a medium high risk (4C), HP evaporator has a medium-high risk (4C), and the HP economizer has a medium risk (3C). The results of the risk assessment using semi-quantitative method of standard API 581 based on the existing equipment at medium risk. In the fact, there is no critical problem in the equipment components. Damage mechanisms were prominent throughout the equipment is thinning mechanism. The evaluation of the risk approach was done with the aim of reducing risk by optimizing the risk assessment activities.

Risk analysis of heat recovery steam generator with semi quantitative risk based inspection API 581

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Prayogo, Galang Sandy; Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky; Kim, Seon Jin

2016-01-01

Corrosion is a major problem that most often occurs in the power plant. Heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) is an equipment that has a high risk to the power plant. The impact of corrosion damage causing HRSG power plant stops operating. Furthermore, it could be threaten the safety of employees. The Risk Based Inspection (RBI) guidelines by the American Petroleum Institute (API) 58 has been used to risk analysis in the HRSG 1. By using this methodology, the risk that caused by unexpected failure as a function of the probability and consequence of failure can be estimated. This paper presented a case study relating to the risk analysis in the HRSG, starting with a summary of the basic principles and procedures of risk assessment and applying corrosion RBI for process industries. The risk level of each HRSG equipment were analyzed: HP superheater has a medium high risk (4C), HP evaporator has a medium-high risk (4C), and the HP economizer has a medium risk (3C). The results of the risk assessment using semi-quantitative method of standard API 581 based on the existing equipment at medium risk. In the fact, there is no critical problem in the equipment components. Damage mechanisms were prominent throughout the equipment is thinning mechanism. The evaluation of the risk approach was done with the aim of reducing risk by optimizing the risk assessment activities.

Risk analysis of heat recovery steam generator with semi quantitative risk based inspection API 581

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Prayogo, Galang Sandy, E-mail: gasandylang@live.com; Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky [Department of Mechanical Engineering, Diponegoro University, Semarang (Indonesia); Kim, Seon Jin [Department of Mechanical & Automotive Engineering of Pukyong National University (Korea, Republic of)

2016-04-19

Corrosion is a major problem that most often occurs in the power plant. Heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) is an equipment that has a high risk to the power plant. The impact of corrosion damage causing HRSG power plant stops operating. Furthermore, it could be threaten the safety of employees. The Risk Based Inspection (RBI) guidelines by the American Petroleum Institute (API) 58 has been used to risk analysis in the HRSG 1. By using this methodology, the risk that caused by unexpected failure as a function of the probability and consequence of failure can be estimated. This paper presented a case study relating to the risk analysis in the HRSG, starting with a summary of the basic principles and procedures of risk assessment and applying corrosion RBI for process industries. The risk level of each HRSG equipment were analyzed: HP superheater has a medium high risk (4C), HP evaporator has a medium-high risk (4C), and the HP economizer has a medium risk (3C). The results of the risk assessment using semi-quantitative method of standard API 581 based on the existing equipment at medium risk. In the fact, there is no critical problem in the equipment components. Damage mechanisms were prominent throughout the equipment is thinning mechanism. The evaluation of the risk approach was done with the aim of reducing risk by optimizing the risk assessment activities.

The development of a 3D risk analysis method.

Science.gov (United States)

I, Yet-Pole; Cheng, Te-Lung

2008-05-01

Much attention has been paid to the quantitative risk analysis (QRA) research in recent years due to more and more severe disasters that have happened in the process industries. Owing to its calculation complexity, very few software, such as SAFETI, can really make the risk presentation meet the practice requirements. However, the traditional risk presentation method, like the individual risk contour in SAFETI, is mainly based on the consequence analysis results of dispersion modeling, which usually assumes that the vapor cloud disperses over a constant ground roughness on a flat terrain with no obstructions and concentration fluctuations, which is quite different from the real situations of a chemical process plant. All these models usually over-predict the hazardous regions in order to maintain their conservativeness, which also increases the uncertainty of the simulation results. On the other hand, a more rigorous model such as the computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model can resolve the previous limitations; however, it cannot resolve the complexity of risk calculations. In this research, a conceptual three-dimensional (3D) risk calculation method was proposed via the combination of results of a series of CFD simulations with some post-processing procedures to obtain the 3D individual risk iso-surfaces. It is believed that such technique will not only be limited to risk analysis at ground level, but also be extended into aerial, submarine, or space risk analyses in the near future.

Risk assessment handbook

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Farmer, F.G.; Jones, J.L.; Hunt, R.N.; Roush, M.L.; Wierman, T.E.

1990-09-01

The Probabilistic Risk Assessment Unit at EG ampersand G Idaho has developed this handbook to provide guidance to a facility manager exploring the potential benefit to be gained by performance of a risk assessment properly scoped to meet local needs. This document is designed to help the manager control the resources expended commensurate with the risks being managed and to assure that the products can be used programmatically to support future needs in order to derive maximum beneflt from the resources expended. We present a logical and functional mapping scheme between several discrete phases of project definition to ensure that a potential customer, working with an analyst, is able to define the areas of interest and that appropriate methods are employed in the analysis. In addition the handbook is written to provide a high-level perspective for the analyst. Previously, the needed information was either scattered or existed only in the minds of experienced analysts. By compiling this information and exploring the breadth of knowledge which exists within the members of the PRA Unit, the functional relationships between the customers' needs and the product have been established

Analysis of Alternatives for Risk Assessment Methodologies and Tools

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nachtigal, Noel M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). System Analytics; Fruetel, Julia A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis; Gleason, Nathaniel J. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis; Helms, Jovana [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis; Imbro, Dennis Raymond [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis; Sumner, Matthew C. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis

2013-10-01

The purpose of this document is to provide a basic overview and understanding of risk assessment methodologies and tools from the literature and to assess the suitability of these methodologies and tools for cyber risk assessment. Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) performed this review in support of risk modeling activities performed for the Stakeholder Engagement and Cyber Infrastructure Resilience (SECIR) division of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Office of Cybersecurity and Communications (CS&C). The set of methodologies and tools covered in this document is not intended to be exhaustive; instead, it focuses on those that are commonly used in the risk assessment community. The classification of methodologies and tools was performed by a group of analysts with experience in risk analysis and cybersecurity, and the resulting analysis of alternatives has been tailored to address the needs of a cyber risk assessment.

[Retrospective analysis of risk factors in 900 patients with ischemic cerebral stroke of wind-phlegm collateral obstruction syndrome and qi deficiency blood stasis syndrome in Wuhan District].

Science.gov (United States)

Qiu, Xin; Wang, Kai-xin; Chen, Guo-hua

2011-11-01

To analyze the correlation between risk factors and ischemic cerebral stroke of wind-phlegm collateral obstruction syndrome and qi deficiency blood stasis syndrome. Totally 900 patients of the two syndrome types were recruited. Risk factors correlated to ischemic cerebral stroke such as gender, age, time of onset, site of infarction, tongue proper, tongue fur, pulse picture, hypertension, diabetes, past stroke history, hyperlipidemia, hematocrit, smoking, drinking, genetic factor, blood type, complications were analyzed using Chi-square test and non-conditional Logistic regression analysis. Statistical significance existed between the two syndrome types in age (X2 = 8.2392, P = 0.0413), hyperlipidemia (X2 = 4.8386, P = 0.0278), tongue proper (X2 = 7.9470, P = 0.0048), and tongue fur (X2 = 4.3298, P = 0.0375). Statistical significance existed between the two syndrome types in hyperlipidemia, tongue proper, and tongue fur, and their OR value was 0.699 (P = 0.0282), 0.332 (P =0.0071), and 0.667 (P = 0.0382) respectively. The OR value of the past stroke history was 3.226 (P = 0.0314), that of complications 0.203 (P = 0.0705), and that of anterior circulation infarction 0.214 (P = 0.0098). Among different ages groups, the constituent ratio of qi deficiency blood stasis syndrome was obviously higher than that of wind-phlegm collateral obstruction syndrome. Besides, patients of qi deficiency blood stasis syndrome were liable to suffer from hyperlipidemia, anterior circulation infarction, and complications. The age, blood lipid levels, site of infarction, complications are closely correlated with Chinese syndrome types of ischemic cerebral stroke, which can provide objective indices for typing ischemic cerebral stroke.

Comparative risk analysis for the Rocky Flats Plant integrated project planning

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jones, M.E.; Shain, D.I.

1994-01-01

The Rocky Flats Plant is developing, with active stakeholder a comprehensive planning strategy that will support transition of the Rocky Flats Plant from a nuclear weapons production facility to site cleanup and final disposition. Final disposition of the Rocky Flats Plant materials and contaminants requires consideration of the interrelated nature of sitewide problems, such as material movement and disposition, facility and land use endstates, costs relative risks to workers and the public, and waste disposition. Comparative Risk Analysis employs both incremental risk and cumulative risk evaluations to compare risks from postulated options or endstates. These postulated options or endstates can be various remedial alternatives, or future endstate uses of federal agency land. Currently, there does not exist any approved methodology that aggregates various incremental risk estimates. Comparative Risk Analysis has been developed to aggregate various incremental risk estimates to develop a site cumulative risk estimate. This paper discusses development of the Comparative Risk Analysis methodology, stakeholder participation and lessons learned from these challenges

A framework provided an outline toward the proper evaluation of potential screening strategies.

Science.gov (United States)

Adriaensen, Wim J; Matheï, Cathy; Buntinx, Frank J; Arbyn, Marc

2013-06-01

Screening tests are often introduced into clinical practice without proper evaluation, despite the increasing awareness that screening is a double-edged sword that can lead to either net benefits or harms. Our objective was to develop a comprehensive framework for the evaluation of new screening strategies. Elaborating on the existing concepts proposed by experts, a stepwise framework is proposed to evaluate whether a potential screening test can be introduced as a screening strategy into clinical practice. The principle of screening strategy evaluation is illustrated for cervical cancer, which is a template for screening because of the existence of an easily detectable and treatable precursor lesion. The evaluation procedure consists of six consecutive steps. In steps 1-4, the technical accuracy, place of the test in the screening pathway, diagnostic accuracy, and longitudinal sensitivity and specificity of the screening test are assessed. In steps 5 and 6, the impact of the screening strategy on the patient and population levels, respectively, is evaluated. The framework incorporates a harm and benefit trade-off and cost-effectiveness analysis. Our framework provides an outline toward the proper evaluation of potential screening strategies before considering implementation. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Kinematics of Local, High-Velocity K dwarfs in the SUPERBLINK Proper Motion Catalog

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Bokyoung; Lepine, Sebastien

2018-01-01

We present a study of the kinematics of 345,480 K stars within 2 kpc of the Sun, based on data from the SUPERBLINK catalog of stars with high proper motions (> 40 mas/yr), combined with data from the 2MASS survey and from the first GAIA release, which together yields proper motions accurate to ~2 mas/yr. All K dwarfs were selected based on their G-K colors, and photometric distances were estimated from a re-calibrated color-magnitude relationship for K dwarfs. We plot transverse velocities VT in various directions on the sky, to examine the local distribution of K dwarfs in velocity space. We have also obtained radial velocity information for a subsample of 10,128 stars, from RAVE and SDSS DR12, which we use to construct spatial velocity (U, V, W) plots. About a third (123,350) of the stars are high-velocity K dwarfs, with motions consistent with the local Galactic halo population. Our kinematic analysis suggests that their velocity-space distribution is very uniform, and we find no evidence of substructure that might arise, e.g., from local streams or moving groups.

Topoisomerase IIbeta is required for proper retinal development and survival of postmitotic cells

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ying Li

2014-01-01

Topoisomerase IIbeta (Top2b is an enzyme that modulates DNA supercoiling by catalyzing the passage of DNA duplexes through one another. It is ubiquitously expressed in postmitotic cells and known to function during the development of neuromuscular junctions in the diaphragm and the proper formation of laminar structure in the cerebral cortex. However, due to the perinatal death phenotype of the traditional constitutive and brain-specific Top2b knockout mice, the precise in vivo function of Top2b, especially during postnatal neural development, remains to be determined. Using both the constitutive and retina-specific knockout mouse models, we showed that Top2b deficiency resulted in delayed neuronal differentiation, degeneration of the plexiform layers and outer segment of photoreceptors, as well as dramatic reduction in cell number in the retina. Genome-wide transcriptome analysis by RNA sequencing revealed that genes involved in neuronal survival and neural system development were preferentially affected in Top2b-deficient retinas. Collectively, our findings have indicated an important function of Top2b in proper development and the maintenance/survival of postmitotic neurons in the retina.

The Requirement of Being a "Fit and Proper" Person for the Legal Profession

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M Slabbert

2011-07-01

Full Text Available An important requirement for admission as an attorney or advocate is to be a "fit and proper" person. Lawyers are also struck from the respective rolls of advocates or attorneys if they cease to be "fit and proper". This requirement of being a "fit and proper" person is not defined or described in legislation. It is left to the subjective interpretation of and application by seniors in the profession and ultimately the court. In the apartheid years this requirement was applied arbitrarily but today the question may be asked why some lawyers who have been found to be "fit and proper" do not act as such. The pre-admission character screening of lawyers seems not to be effective any more. Post- admission moral development is imperative.

How are the catastrophical risks quantifiable

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chakraborty, S.

1985-01-01

For the assessment and evaluation of industrial risks the question must be asked how are the catastrophical risks quantifiable. Typical real catastrophical risks and risk assessment based on modelling assumptions have been placed against each other in order to put the risks into proper perspective. However, the society is risk averse when there is a catastrophic potential of severe accidents in a large scale industrial facility even though there is extremely low probability of occurence. (orig.) [de

Proper acceleration, the geometric tachyon and the dynamics of a fundamental string near Dp branes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Das, Ashok; Panda, Sudhakar; Roy, Shibaji

2009-01-01

We present a detailed analysis of our recent observation that the origin of the geometric tachyon, which arises when a Dp brane propagates in the vicinity of a stack of coincident NS5 branes, is due to the proper acceleration generated by the background dilaton field. We show that when a fundamental string (F-string), described by the Nambu-Goto action, is moving in the background of a stack of coincident Dp branes, the geometric tachyon mode can also appear since the overall conformal mode of the induced metric for the string can act as a source for proper acceleration. We also studied the detailed dynamics of the F-string as well as the instability by mapping the Nambu-Goto action of the F-string to the tachyon effective action of the non-BPS D-string. We qualitatively argue that the condensation of the geometric tachyon is responsible for the (F,Dp) bound state formation.

Proper-time quantum-mechanics and the Klein paradox

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thaller, B.

1981-01-01

Scattering at high potential-steps is treated in the framework of relativistic proper-time theory. No paradox arises in contrast to Dirac's wavemechanics (''Klein's paradox''); pair creation may happen with a certain probability and may be described as a scattering process with ordinary quantum-mechanical methods. (author)

Positions and proper motions of dwarf carbon stars

Science.gov (United States)

Deutsch, Eric W.

1994-01-01

Recent-epochs positions and proper motions of nine dwarf carbon star candidates are presented along with finding charts for each object. Measurements are obtained from digitized Palomar Observatory Sky Survey (POSS) and Quik V plate archives at the Space Telescope Science Institute, and from recent CCD images.

How to get properly rid of confidential data?

CERN Multimedia

Computer Security Team

2012-01-01

Have you ever bought a used laptop on ebay? Try it and you might not only get (hopefully) functional hardware, but also a bunch of personal files, intriguing photos, sensitive documents, etc. Not everybody worries enough to clean the local hard disks properly before selling their equipment or giving it away. So the next owner of the hard disk can comfortably crawl through the remaining data, and use it at his or her convenience...   In fact, properly cleaning a hard disk is difficult! Deleting local files or formatting the hard disk usually just purges the files from being listed in the folder, but the actual data remains intact on the hard disk. Freely available tools can easily reconstruct those files and, thus, expose it. It is better practice to get rid of your files by running tools like “shred” on the Linux platform (try “shred –fuvzn1 [FILENAME]” or check “man shred” for details), or “File Shredder&rdqu...

Source modelling in seismic risk analysis for nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yucemen, M.S.

1978-12-01

The proposed probabilistic procedure provides a consistent method for the modelling, analysis and updating of uncertainties that are involved in the seismic risk analysis for nuclear power plants. The potential earthquake activity zones are idealized as point, line or area sources. For these seismic source types, expressions to evaluate their contribution to seismic risk are derived, considering all the possible site-source configurations. The seismic risk at a site is found to depend not only on the inherent randomness of the earthquake occurrences with respect to magnitude, time and space, but also on the uncertainties associated with the predicted values of the seismic and geometric parameters, as well as the uncertainty in the attenuation model. The uncertainty due to the attenuation equation is incorporated into the analysis through the use of random correction factors. The influence of the uncertainty resulting from the insufficient information on the seismic parameters and source geometry is introduced into the analysis by computing a mean risk curve averaged over the various alternative assumptions on the parameters and source geometry. Seismic risk analysis is carried for the city of Denizli, which is located in the seismically most active zone of Turkey. The second analysis is for Akkuyu

The Total Risk Analysis of Large Dams under Flood Hazards

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yu Chen

2018-02-01

Full Text Available Dams and reservoirs are useful systems in water conservancy projects; however, they also pose a high-risk potential for large downstream areas. Flood, as the driving force of dam overtopping, is the main cause of dam failure. Dam floods and their risks are of interest to researchers and managers. In hydraulic engineering, there is a growing tendency to evaluate dam flood risk based on statistical and probabilistic methods that are unsuitable for the situations with rare historical data or low flood probability, so a more reasonable dam flood risk analysis method with fewer application restrictions is needed. Therefore, different from previous studies, this study develops a flood risk analysis method for large dams based on the concept of total risk factor (TRF used initially in dam seismic risk analysis. The proposed method is not affected by the adequacy of historical data or the low probability of flood and is capable of analyzing the dam structure influence, the flood vulnerability of the dam site, and downstream risk as well as estimating the TRF of each dam and assigning corresponding risk classes to each dam. Application to large dams in the Dadu River Basin, Southwestern China, demonstrates that the proposed method provides quick risk estimation and comparison, which can help local management officials perform more detailed dam safety evaluations for useful risk management information.

Methodology for flood risk analysis for nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wagner, D.P.; Casada, M.L.; Fussell, J.B.

1984-01-01

The methodology for flood risk analysis described here addresses the effects of a flood on nuclear power plant safety systems. Combining the results of this method with the probability of a flood allows the effects of flooding to be included in a probabilistic risk assessment. The five-step methodology includes accident sequence screening to focus the detailed analysis efforts on the accident sequences that are significantly affected by a flood event. The quantitative results include the flood's contribution to system failure probability, accident sequence occurrence frequency and consequence category occurrence frequency. The analysis can be added to existing risk assessments without a significant loss in efficiency. The results of two example applications show the usefulness of the methodology. Both examples rely on the Reactor Safety Study for the required risk assessment inputs and present changes in the Reactor Safety Study results as a function of flood probability

Investment appraisal using quantitative risk analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Johansson, Henrik

2002-07-01

Investment appraisal concerned with investments in fire safety systems is discussed. Particular attention is directed at evaluating, in terms of the Bayesian decision theory, the risk reduction that investment in a fire safety system involves. It is shown how the monetary value of the change from a building design without any specific fire protection system to one including such a system can be estimated by use of quantitative risk analysis, the results of which are expressed in terms of a Risk-adjusted net present value. This represents the intrinsic monetary value of investing in the fire safety system. The method suggested is exemplified by a case study performed in an Avesta Sheffield factory.

Gender Analysis of Risk in Innovation System

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ayinde, Ope; Muchie, Mammo; Abaniyan, E. O.

2011-01-01

the new maize variety. The analytical tools used include descriptive statistics, regression model; risk utility functions and risk parameter analysis. The result showed that invasion by animals, disease and pest, lack of access to credit wind and price fluctuation were the major risk facing the maize......This study analyzed risk by gender in innovation in Kwara state, Nigeria, using downy mildew resistant maize production as case study. The study employed primary and secondary data. The primary data were collected from well-structured questionnaires administered to both male and female producing...... producers in the area in the usage of the new innovation. The study also revealed that male producers were willing to take risk in the new maize variety production than the female, while the females were more indifferent to the risk involved in the new maize production variety than males. None...

Proper Use of Audio-Visual Aids: Essential for Educators.

Science.gov (United States)

Dejardin, Conrad

1989-01-01

Criticizes educators as the worst users of audio-visual aids and among the worst public speakers. Offers guidelines for the proper use of an overhead projector and the development of transparencies. (DMM)

KEBIJAKAN PENGELOLAAN LINGKUNGAN KAWASAN INDUSTRI SESUAI PROPER KLHK PERINGKAT HIJAU (STUDI KASUS DI KAWASAN INDUSTRI JABABEKA BEKASI

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Temmy Wikaningrum

2015-07-01

Full Text Available Environmental management in industrial estate is the strategic policy model which is needed to be developed referring to the Indonesian Government Decree number 24 year 2009, that state almost all of the new industrial developments should be located in industrial estate. The complexity in this environmental management was approached by “green rating” of PROPER’s criteria regulated by Ministry of Environment & Forestry (KLHK. PROPER is the assessment program of company performance rating in environmental management. Green rating is classified by PROPER in terms of beyond compliance performance. The result of the case study in Jababeka Industrial Estate (KIJA Bekasi, based on its environmental situational analysis year 2014 by multidimensional scaling (MDS method, showed that only the management dimension had a sustainability performance. The results of prospective analysis on leverage factors of MDS showed that the key factors of the environmental management model were (1 DRKPL (summary document of environmental management performance, (2 implementation of water conservation and reducing water pollution program, (3funding for water conservation, (4 monitoring and evaluation of community development program, (5 implementation of 3R (reduce, reuse, recycle programs of hazardous waste, (6 technology of 3R, and (7 benchmarking. Based on the key parameters and referred to the possibilities conditions, three scenarios have been developed to approach the implementative policy. The moderate scenario was recommended to be the right policy in term of consideration of technology, funding availability, time of implementation and organization skills.Keywords: environmental management, industrial estate, jababeka, proper KLHK

Multi-Disaster Risk Analysis of Klaten Regency, Central Java, Indonesia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Candra Dian Lukita Tauhid

2017-09-01

Full Text Available Klaten Regency is located in Central Java Province, Indonesia, ranked as 19th most susceptible area in Indonesia. Among of many disasters those take place in Klaten are floods, landslides, and earthquake, which cause damages and loss of lives. Unfortunately, some areas in Klaten Regency are also very vulnerable to the disasters that often contribute severe damage and loss. This paper presents result of risk analysis due to floods, landslides and earthquake disaster at Klaten Regency. Several parameters or criteria are utilized to describe the level of the disaster intensities. The flood susceptibility parameters are the Topographic Wet Index (TWI, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI, permeability and roughness, as proposed by Kafira, et al. (2015. The landslide susceptibility are the geology, slope, elevation, distance from fault, distance from rivers, rainfall and land use, as suggested by Thearith (2009 whereas the earthquake susceptibility was referred to FEMA P-154 by using the Ss and S1. The vulnerability and risk analysis are carried out by referring to the parameters as stipulated by the Chief Regulation of the National Board of Disaster Management No.2 Year 2012 (Perka Badan Nasional Penanggulangan Bencana- BNPB, concerning the parameters being used for the vulnerability analysis, i.e. population density, poverty ratio, land use, and level of Gross Regional Domestic Product. Further spatial analysis of the risk performs the multi-disaster risk map as a combination between the floods, landslides and earthquake disaster risk in Klaten Regency. The established multi-disaster risk map shows the risk level in the Klaten Regency, i.e., 16.31% at very low risk, 33.01% at low risk, 34.49% at medium risk, at 14.22% high risk and 1.97% at very high risk.

Key attributes of the SAPHIRE risk and reliability analysis software for risk-informed probabilistic applications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Smith, Curtis; Knudsen, James; Kvarfordt, Kellie; Wood, Ted

2008-01-01

The Idaho National Laboratory is a primary developer of probabilistic risk and reliability analysis (PRRA) tools, dating back over 35 years. Evolving from mainframe-based software, the current state-of-the-practice has led to the creation of the SAPHIRE software. Currently, agencies such as the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, the National Aeronautics and Aerospace Agency, the Department of Energy, and the Department of Defense use version 7 of the SAPHIRE software for many of their risk-informed activities. In order to better understand and appreciate the power of software as part of risk-informed applications, we need to recall that our current analysis methods and solution methods have built upon pioneering work done 30-40 years ago. We contrast this work with the current capabilities in the SAPHIRE analysis package. As part of this discussion, we provide information for both the typical features and special analysis capabilities, which are available. We also present the application and results typically found with state-of-the-practice PRRA models. By providing both a high-level and detailed look at the SAPHIRE software, we give a snapshot in time for the current use of software tools in a risk-informed decision arena

A scenario-based procedure for seismic risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kluegel, J.-U.; Mualchin, L.; Panza, G.F.

2006-12-01

A new methodology for seismic risk analysis based on probabilistic interpretation of deterministic or scenario-based hazard analysis, in full compliance with the likelihood principle and therefore meeting the requirements of modern risk analysis, has been developed. The proposed methodology can easily be adjusted to deliver its output in a format required for safety analysts and civil engineers. The scenario-based approach allows the incorporation of all available information collected in a geological, seismotectonic and geotechnical database of the site of interest as well as advanced physical modelling techniques to provide a reliable and robust deterministic design basis for civil infrastructures. The robustness of this approach is of special importance for critical infrastructures. At the same time a scenario-based seismic hazard analysis allows the development of the required input for probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) as required by safety analysts and insurance companies. The scenario-based approach removes the ambiguity in the results of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) which relies on the projections of Gutenberg-Richter (G-R) equation. The problems in the validity of G-R projections, because of incomplete to total absence of data for making the projections, are still unresolved. Consequently, the information from G-R must not be used in decisions for design of critical structures or critical elements in a structure. The scenario-based methodology is strictly based on observable facts and data and complemented by physical modelling techniques, which can be submitted to a formalised validation process. By means of sensitivity analysis, knowledge gaps related to lack of data can be dealt with easily, due to the limited amount of scenarios to be investigated. The proposed seismic risk analysis can be used with confidence for planning, insurance and engineering applications. (author)

Ontology-based specification, identification and analysis of perioperative risks.

Science.gov (United States)

Uciteli, Alexandr; Neumann, Juliane; Tahar, Kais; Saleh, Kutaiba; Stucke, Stephan; Faulbrück-Röhr, Sebastian; Kaeding, André; Specht, Martin; Schmidt, Tobias; Neumuth, Thomas; Besting, Andreas; Stegemann, Dominik; Portheine, Frank; Herre, Heinrich

2017-09-06

Medical personnel in hospitals often works under great physical and mental strain. In medical decision-making, errors can never be completely ruled out. Several studies have shown that between 50 and 60% of adverse events could have been avoided through better organization, more attention or more effective security procedures. Critical situations especially arise during interdisciplinary collaboration and the use of complex medical technology, for example during surgical interventions and in perioperative settings (the period of time before, during and after surgical intervention). In this paper, we present an ontology and an ontology-based software system, which can identify risks across medical processes and supports the avoidance of errors in particular in the perioperative setting. We developed a practicable definition of the risk notion, which is easily understandable by the medical staff and is usable for the software tools. Based on this definition, we developed a Risk Identification Ontology (RIO) and used it for the specification and the identification of perioperative risks. An agent system was developed, which gathers risk-relevant data during the whole perioperative treatment process from various sources and provides it for risk identification and analysis in a centralized fashion. The results of such an analysis are provided to the medical personnel in form of context-sensitive hints and alerts. For the identification of the ontologically specified risks, we developed an ontology-based software module, called Ontology-based Risk Detector (OntoRiDe). About 20 risks relating to cochlear implantation (CI) have already been implemented. Comprehensive testing has indicated the correctness of the data acquisition, risk identification and analysis components, as well as the web-based visualization of results.

Safety analysis and risk assessment handbook

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Peterson, V.L.; Colwell, R.G.; Dickey, R.L.

1997-01-01

This Safety Analysis and Risk Assessment Handbook (SARAH) provides guidance to the safety analyst at the Rocky Flats Environmental Technology Site (RFETS) in the preparation of safety analyses and risk assessments. Although the older guidance (the Rocky Flats Risk Assessment Guide) continues to be used for updating the Final Safety Analysis Reports developed in the mid-1980s, this new guidance is used with all new authorization basis documents. With the mission change at RFETS came the need to establish new authorization basis documents for its facilities, whose functions had changed. The methodology and databases for performing the evaluations that support the new authorization basis documents had to be standardized, to avoid the use of different approaches and/or databases for similar accidents in different facilities. This handbook presents this new standardized approach. The handbook begins with a discussion of the requirements of the different types of authorization basis documents and how to choose the one appropriate for the facility to be evaluated. It then walks the analyst through the process of identifying all the potential hazards in the facility, classifying them, and choosing the ones that need to be analyzed further. It then discusses the methods for evaluating accident initiation and progression and covers the basic steps in a safety analysis, including consequence and frequency binning and risk ranking. The handbook lays out standardized approaches for determining the source terms of the various accidents (including airborne release fractions, leakpath factors, etc.), the atmospheric dispersion factors appropriate for Rocky Flats, and the methods for radiological and chemical consequence assessments. The radiological assessments use a radiological open-quotes templateclose quotes, a spreadsheet that incorporates the standard values of parameters, whereas the chemical assessments use the standard codes ARCHIE and ALOHA

Integrated Risk-Capability Analysis under Deep Uncertainty : An ESDMA Approach

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Pruyt, E.; Kwakkel, J.H.

2012-01-01

Integrated risk-capability analysis methodologies for dealing with increasing degrees of complexity and deep uncertainty are urgently needed in an ever more complex and uncertain world. Although scenario approaches, risk assessment methods, and capability analysis methods are used, few organizations

[The methods of assessment of health risk from exposure to radon and radon daughters].

Science.gov (United States)

Demin, V F; Zhukovskiy, M V; Kiselev, S M

2014-01-01

The critical analysis of existing models of the relationship dose-effect (RDE) for radon exposure on human health has been performed. Conclusion about the necessity and possibility of improving these models has been made. A new improved version ofthe RDE has been developed. A technique for assessing the human health risk of exposure to radon, including the method for estimating of exposure doses of radon, an improved model of RDE, proper methodology risk assessment has been described. Methodology is proposed for the use in the territory of Russia.

Risk analysis for nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Koelzer, W.

1983-01-01

The German risk analysis program for nuclear power plants aiming at the man and the environment is presented. An accident consequence model to calculate the radiological impact and the potential health effects is described. (E.G.) [pt

Risk factors for radiation-induced hypothyroidism: A Literature-Based Meta-Analysis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Vogelius, Ivan R; Bentzen, Søren; Maraldo, Maja V

2011-01-01

BACKGROUND: A systematic overview and meta-analysis of studies reporting data on hypothyroidism (HT) after radiation therapy was conducted to identify risk factors for development of HT. METHODS: Published studies were identified from the PubMed and Embase databases and by hand-searching published...... reviews. Studies allowing the extraction of odds ratios (OR) for HT in 1 or more of several candidate clinical risk groups were included. A meta-analysis of the OR for development of HT with or without each of the candidate risk factors was performed. Furthermore, studies allowing the extraction......% risk of HT at a dose of 45 Gy but with considerable variation in the dose response between studies. Chemotherapy and age were not associated with risk of HT in this analysis. CONCLUSIONS: Several clinical risk factors for HT were identified. The risk of HT increases with increasing radiation dose...

Proper Elements and Secular Resonances for Irregular Satellites

Science.gov (United States)

Beaugé, C.; Nesvorný, D.

2007-06-01

We present results of an analytical study of proper elements and secular resonances for the irregular satellites of the outer planets. In the case of the Jovian system we identify three satellite families, two of them previously known (Carme and Ananke), plus a new agglomeration of four bodies that includes Pasiphae as its largest member. While the distribution of proper elements for Saturn's moons seems to be more random, a small cluster was found for the direct moons formed by Albiorix, Erriapo, and 2004 S1, slightly different from the so-called Gaulish cluster. No significant families are detected in the present study for the Uranian or Neptunian satellite systems. For each satellite system we determine the location of several secular resonances in the proper element space. Apart from the well-known resonance locks of Pasiphae, Sinope, and Siarnaq, a comparison between the resonance locations and proper elements shows that Saturn's satellite Narvi also exhibits temporary librations in the ϖ-ϖsolar resonance. However, unlike the resonant Jovian moons that are located in the same configuration, Narvi's critical argument librates alternately around values near 90° and 270°. Neither the Uranian nor Neptunian systems seem to have resonant moons. The resonant dynamics of the real satellites in the vicinity of ϖ˙-ϖ˙solar=0 is studied with a simple model for secular resonances based on the restricted three-body problem. Depending on the initial conditions, we show the existence of one or two modes of libration that can occur at different values of the critical angle, showing a good correspondence with the observed behavior of all the resonant moons. Finally, we discuss the global distribution of the real satellites with respect to the secular resonances, as compared with synthetic populations of bodies drawn solely from stability conditions. For Saturn, we find that the present satellite population appears compatible with simple random distributions. Although

Approach to uncertainty in risk analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rish, W.R.

1988-08-01

In the Fall of 1985 EPA's Office of Radiation Programs (ORP) initiated a project to develop a formal approach to dealing with uncertainties encountered when estimating and evaluating risks to human health and the environment. Based on a literature review of modeling uncertainty, interviews with ORP technical and management staff, and input from experts on uncertainty analysis, a comprehensive approach was developed. This approach recognizes by design the constraints on budget, time, manpower, expertise, and availability of information often encountered in ''real world'' modeling. It is based on the observation that in practice risk modeling is usually done to support a decision process. As such, the approach focuses on how to frame a given risk modeling problem, how to use that framing to select an appropriate mixture of uncertainty analyses techniques, and how to integrate the techniques into an uncertainty assessment that effectively communicates important information and insight to decision-makers. The approach is presented in this report. Practical guidance on characterizing and analyzing uncertainties about model form and quantities and on effectively communicating uncertainty analysis results is included. Examples from actual applications are presented.

Approach to uncertainty in risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rish, W.R.

1988-08-01

In the Fall of 1985 EPA's Office of Radiation Programs (ORP) initiated a project to develop a formal approach to dealing with uncertainties encountered when estimating and evaluating risks to human health and the environment. Based on a literature review of modeling uncertainty, interviews with ORP technical and management staff, and input from experts on uncertainty analysis, a comprehensive approach was developed. This approach recognizes by design the constraints on budget, time, manpower, expertise, and availability of information often encountered in ''real world'' modeling. It is based on the observation that in practice risk modeling is usually done to support a decision process. As such, the approach focuses on how to frame a given risk modeling problem, how to use that framing to select an appropriate mixture of uncertainty analyses techniques, and how to integrate the techniques into an uncertainty assessment that effectively communicates important information and insight to decision-makers. The approach is presented in this report. Practical guidance on characterizing and analyzing uncertainties about model form and quantities and on effectively communicating uncertainty analysis results is included. Examples from actual applications are presented

Proper comparison among methods using a confusion matrix

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Salmon

2015-07-01

Full Text Available -1 IGARSS 2015, Milan, Italy, 26-31 July 2015 Proper comparison among methods using a confusion matrix 1,2 B.P. Salmon, 2,3 W. Kleynhans, 2,3 C.P. Schwegmann and 1J.C. Olivier 1School of Engineering and ICT, University of Tasmania, Australia 2...

Failure mode effect analysis and fault tree analysis as a combined methodology in risk management

Science.gov (United States)

Wessiani, N. A.; Yoshio, F.

2018-04-01

There have been many studies reported the implementation of Failure Mode Effect Analysis (FMEA) and Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) as a method in risk management. However, most of the studies usually only choose one of these two methods in their risk management methodology. On the other side, combining these two methods will reduce the drawbacks of each methods when implemented separately. This paper aims to combine the methodology of FMEA and FTA in assessing risk. A case study in the metal company will illustrate how this methodology can be implemented. In the case study, this combined methodology will assess the internal risks that occur in the production process. Further, those internal risks should be mitigated based on their level of risks.

Meta-analysis: Risk of dry mouth with second generation antidepressants.

Science.gov (United States)

Cappetta, Kiley; Beyer, Chad; Johnson, Jessica A; Bloch, Michael H

2018-06-08

The goal of this meta-analysis was to quantify the risk of dry mouth associated with commonly prescribed antidepressant agents and examine the potential implications of medication class, dose, and pharmacodynamics and dose on risk of treatment-induced dry mouth. A PubMed search was conducted to identify double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled trials examining the efficacy and tolerability of second generation antidepressant medications for adults with depressive disorders, anxiety disorders, and OCD. A random-effects meta-analysis was used to quantify the pooled risk ratio of treatment-emergent dry mouth with second generation antidepressants compared to placebo. Stratified subgroup analysis and meta-regression was utilized to further examine the effects antidepressant agent, class, dosage, indication, and receptor affinity profile on the measured risk of dry mouth. 99 trials involving 20,868 adults. SNRIs (Relative Risk (RR)=2.24, 95% Confidence Interval (CI): 1.95-2.58, z=11.2, pz=5.8, pz=10.32, pz=5.85, pz=3.26, p=0.001) and Alpha-2 (PE=0.49, 95% CI: 0.22-0.75, z=3.64, pz=2.10, p<0.05) was significantly associated with increased risk of dry mouth. The current meta-analysis suggests that SSRIs, SNRIs, and atypical antidepressants are all associated with varying degrees of increased risk of dry mouth. SNRIs were associated with a significantly greater risk of dry mouth compared to SSRIs. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Analyses in support of risk-informed natural gas vehicle maintenance facility codes and standards :

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ekoto, Isaac W.; Blaylock, Myra L.; LaFleur, Angela Christine; LaChance, Jeffrey L.; Horne, Douglas B.

2014-03-01

Safety standards development for maintenance facilities of liquid and compressed gas fueled large-scale vehicles is required to ensure proper facility design and operation envelopes. Standard development organizations are utilizing risk-informed concepts to develop natural gas vehicle (NGV) codes and standards so that maintenance facilities meet acceptable risk levels. The present report summarizes Phase I work for existing NGV repair facility code requirements and highlights inconsistencies that need quantitative analysis into their effectiveness. A Hazardous and Operability study was performed to identify key scenarios of interest. Finally, scenario analyses were performed using detailed simulations and modeling to estimate the overpressure hazards from HAZOP defined scenarios. The results from Phase I will be used to identify significant risk contributors at NGV maintenance facilities, and are expected to form the basis for follow-on quantitative risk analysis work to address specific code requirements and identify effective accident prevention and mitigation strategies.

RISK ANALYSIS IN MILK PROCESSING

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

I. PIRVUTOIU

2008-05-01

Full Text Available This paper aimed to evaluate Risk bankruptcy using “Score Method” based on Canon and Holder’s Model. The data were collected from the Balance Sheet and Profit and Loss Account for the period 2005-2007, recorded by a Meat processing Plant (Rador Commercial Company .The study has put in evidence the financial situation of the company,the level of the main financial ratios fundamenting the calculation of Z score function value in the three years The low values of Z score function recorded every year reflects that the company is still facing backruptcy. However , the worst situation was recorded in the years 2005 and 2006, when baknruptcy risk was ranging between 70 – 80 % . In the year 2007, the risk bankruptcy was lower, ranging between 50-70 % , as Z function recorded a value lower than 4 .For Meat processing companies such an analysis is compulsory at present as long as business environment is very risky in our country.

Quantitative risk analysis preoperational of gas pipeline

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Manfredi, Carlos; Bispo, Gustavo G.; Esteves, Alvaro [Gie S.A., Buenos Aires (Argentina)

2009-07-01

The purpose of this analysis is to predict how it can be affected the individual risk and the public's general security due to the operation of a gas pipeline. In case that the single or social risks are considered intolerable, compared with the international standards, to be recommended measures of mitigation of the risk associated to the operation until levels that can be considered compatible with the best practices in the industry. The quantitative risk analysis calculates the probability of occurrence of an event based on the frequency of occurrence of the same one and it requires a complex mathematical treatment. The present work has as objective to develop a calculation methodology based on the previously mentioned publication. This calculation methodology is centered in defining the frequencies of occurrence of events, according to representative database of each case in study. Besides, it settles down the consequences particularly according to the considerations of each area and the different possibilities of interferences with the gas pipeline in study. For each one of the interferences a typical curve of ignition probabilities is developed in function from the distance to the pipe. (author)

Risk and Interdependencies in Critical Infrastructures A Guideline for Analysis

CERN Document Server

Utne, Ingrid; Vatn, Jørn

2012-01-01

Today’s society is completely dependent on critical networks such as  water supply, sewage, electricity, ICT and transportation. Risk and vulnerability analyses are needed to grasp the impact of threats and hazards. However, these become quite complex as there are strong interdependencies both within and between infrastructure systems. Risk and Interdependencies in Critical Infrastructures: A  guideline for analysis provides methods for analyzing risks and interdependencies of critical infrastructures.  A number of analysis approaches are described and are adapted to each of these infrastructures. Various approaches are also revised, and all are supported by several examples and illustrations. Particular emphasis is given to the analysis of various interdependencies that often exist between the infrastructures.  Risk and Interdependencies in Critical Infrastructures: A  guideline for analysis provides a good tool to identify the hazards that are threatening your infrastructures, and will enhance the un...

WE-B-BRC-02: Risk Analysis and Incident Learning

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fraass, B.

2016-01-01

Prospective quality management techniques, long used by engineering and industry, have become a growing aspect of efforts to improve quality management and safety in healthcare. These techniques are of particular interest to medical physics as scope and complexity of clinical practice continue to grow, thus making the prescriptive methods we have used harder to apply and potentially less effective for our interconnected and highly complex healthcare enterprise, especially in imaging and radiation oncology. An essential part of most prospective methods is the need to assess the various risks associated with problems, failures, errors, and design flaws in our systems. We therefore begin with an overview of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry and discuss their strengths and weaknesses. The rationale for use of process mapping, failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) and fault tree analysis (FTA) by TG-100 will be described, as well as suggestions for the way forward. This is followed by discussion of radiation oncology specific risk assessment strategies and issues, including the TG-100 effort to evaluate IMRT and other ways to think about risk in the context of radiotherapy. Incident learning systems, local as well as the ASTRO/AAPM ROILS system, can also be useful in the risk assessment process. Finally, risk in the context of medical imaging will be discussed. Radiation (and other) safety considerations, as well as lack of quality and certainty all contribute to the potential risks associated with suboptimal imaging. The goal of this session is to summarize a wide variety of risk analysis methods and issues to give the medical physicist access to tools which can better define risks (and their importance) which we work to mitigate with both prescriptive and prospective risk-based quality management methods. Learning Objectives: Description of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry Discussion of radiation oncology

WE-B-BRC-02: Risk Analysis and Incident Learning

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fraass, B. [Cedars Sinai Medical Center (United States)

2016-06-15

Prospective quality management techniques, long used by engineering and industry, have become a growing aspect of efforts to improve quality management and safety in healthcare. These techniques are of particular interest to medical physics as scope and complexity of clinical practice continue to grow, thus making the prescriptive methods we have used harder to apply and potentially less effective for our interconnected and highly complex healthcare enterprise, especially in imaging and radiation oncology. An essential part of most prospective methods is the need to assess the various risks associated with problems, failures, errors, and design flaws in our systems. We therefore begin with an overview of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry and discuss their strengths and weaknesses. The rationale for use of process mapping, failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) and fault tree analysis (FTA) by TG-100 will be described, as well as suggestions for the way forward. This is followed by discussion of radiation oncology specific risk assessment strategies and issues, including the TG-100 effort to evaluate IMRT and other ways to think about risk in the context of radiotherapy. Incident learning systems, local as well as the ASTRO/AAPM ROILS system, can also be useful in the risk assessment process. Finally, risk in the context of medical imaging will be discussed. Radiation (and other) safety considerations, as well as lack of quality and certainty all contribute to the potential risks associated with suboptimal imaging. The goal of this session is to summarize a wide variety of risk analysis methods and issues to give the medical physicist access to tools which can better define risks (and their importance) which we work to mitigate with both prescriptive and prospective risk-based quality management methods. Learning Objectives: Description of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry Discussion of radiation oncology

Analysis of interactions among barriers in project risk management

Science.gov (United States)

Dandage, Rahul V.; Mantha, Shankar S.; Rane, Santosh B.; Bhoola, Vanita

2018-03-01

In the context of the scope, time, cost, and quality constraints, failure is not uncommon in project management. While small projects have 70% chances of success, large projects virtually have no chance of meeting the quadruple constraints. While there is no dearth of research on project risk management, the manifestation of barriers to project risk management is a less dwelt topic. The success of project management is oftentimes based on the understanding of barriers to effective risk management, application of appropriate risk management methodology, proactive leadership to avoid barriers, workers' attitude, adequate resources, organizational culture, and involvement of top management. This paper represents various risk categories and barriers to risk management in domestic and international projects through literature survey and feedback from project professionals. After analysing the various modelling methods used in project risk management literature, interpretive structural modelling (ISM) and MICMAC analysis have been used to analyse interactions among the barriers and prioritize them. The analysis indicates that lack of top management support, lack of formal training, and lack of addressing cultural differences are the high priority barriers, among many others.

Risk analysis for earth dam overtopping

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mo Chongxun

2008-06-01

Full Text Available In this paper, a model of overtopping risk under the joint effects of floods and wind waves, which is based on risk analysis theory and takes into account the uncertainties of floods, wind waves, reservoir capacity and discharge capacity of the spillway, is proposed and applied to the Chengbihe Reservoir in Baise City in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region. The simulated results indicate that the flood control limiting level can be raised by 0.40 m under the condition that the reservoir overtopping risk is controlled within a mean variance of 5×10−6. As a result, the reservoir storage will increase to 16 million m3 and electrical energy generation and other functions of the reservoir will also increase greatly.

Essays on Systemic Risk : An analysis from multiple perspectives

NARCIS (Netherlands)

S. Muns (Sander)

2016-01-01

markdownabstractThis thesis is about systemic risk in the financial sector. It considers several aspects of systemic risk. It is a building block for an analysis of the impact of systemic risk on the real economy. It appears that stocks in the financial industry show a strong interdependence

Quantitative risk analysis as a basis for emergency planning

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yogui, Regiane Tiemi Teruya [Bureau Veritas do Brasil, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Macedo, Eduardo Soares de [Instituto de Pesquisas Tecnologicas (IPT), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil)

2009-07-01

Several environmental accidents happened in Brazil and in the world during the 70's and 80's. This strongly motivated the preparation for emergencies in the chemical and petrochemical industries. Environmental accidents affect the environment and the communities that are neighbor to the industrial facilities. The present study aims at subsidizing and providing orientation to develop Emergency Planning from the data obtained on Quantitative Risk Analysis, elaborated according to the Technical Standard P4.261/03 from CETESB (Sao Paulo Environmental Agency). It was observed, during the development of the research, that the data generated on these studies need a complementation and a deeper analysis, so that it is possible to use them on the Emergency Plans. The main issues that were analyzed and discussed on this study were the reevaluation of hazard identification for the emergency plans, the consequences and vulnerability analysis for the response planning, the risk communication, and the preparation to respond to the emergencies of the communities exposed to manageable risks. As a result, the study intends to improve the interpretation and use of the data deriving from the Quantitative Risk Analysis to develop the emergency plans. (author)

Risk analysis of radioactive waste management systems in Germany

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wingender, H.J.

1978-01-01

Within the scope of a system study, ''Radioactive wastes in the Federal Republic of Germany,'' performed from 1974 through 1976, the questions of risk assessment were investigated. A risk analysis of a high-level waste (HLW) management system was performed. The results of the HLW tank storage are that the risk expectation value is 700 nJ/kg x RBE (7 x 10 -5 rem) per year for atmospheric release. The discussion of the main contributing accidents shows the possibility of reducing the risk by a technical means. A qualitative comparison on the release basis with the results of the WASH-1400 report shows significant differences that can be explained by the different methodologies applied. The risk analysis activities have led to a comprehensive risk assessment project, which was recently started. The projected includes research and development tasks concerning nuclide migration and transport to the ecosphere, nuclide mobilization by various mechanisms, methodology problems, data collection, computer code development, as well as risk analyses of waste management facilities. It is intended to round off the project with risk analyses of spent fuel element transport, storage, and reprocessing

Risk analysis tools for force protection and infrastructure/asset protection

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jaeger, C.D.; Duggan, R.A.; Paulus, W.K.

1998-01-01

The Security Systems and Technology Center at Sandia National Laboratories has for many years been involved in the development and use of vulnerability assessment and risk analysis tools. In particular, two of these tools, ASSESS and JTS, have been used extensively for Department of Energy facilities. Increasingly, Sandia has been called upon to evaluate critical assets and infrastructures, support DoD force protection activities and assist in the protection of facilities from terrorist attacks using weapons of mass destruction. Sandia is involved in many different activities related to security and force protection and is expanding its capabilities by developing new risk analysis tools to support a variety of users. One tool, in the very early stages of development, is EnSURE, Engineered Surety Using the Risk Equation. EnSURE addresses all of the risk equation and integrates the many components into a single, tool-supported process to help determine the most cost-effective ways to reduce risk. This paper will briefly discuss some of these risk analysis tools within the EnSURE framework

Statistical HR diagrams for one hundred and fifteen thousand proper-motion stars

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Luyten, W.J.

1978-01-01

Since regular HR diagrams require apparent magnitudes, colors or spectra, and parallaxes, and such complete data are available for relatively few stars, there may be some advantage in making up diagrams which utilize proper motions instead of parallaxes, and are thus statistically similar to an HR diagram. The reduced proper motion, first used by Hertzsprung, is defined as H=m+5+5log μ, but may also be written as H=M+5log T, where T is the tangential velocity, and is expressed in astronomical units per year. A diagram plotting H against color will thus contain the considerable dispersion in tangential velocity which is a serious disadvantage. However, this is outweighed by two practical advantages. First, the one and the same person who does the proper motion survey can, and does also determine the other two quantities needed. Second, when using data obtained from such a proper motion survey one deals, statistically, with all the stars within a given distance and the results, therefore, are much more representative of the real situation in space than many HR diagrams which often contain an unrealistic preponderance of giants. (Auth.)

Operational Risk Management A Practical Approach to Intelligent Data Analysis

CERN Document Server

Kenett, Ron

2010-01-01

The book will introduce modern Operational Risk (OpR) Management and illustrates the various sources of OpR assessment and OpR mitigation. This book discusses how various data sources can be integrated and analyzed and how OpR is synergetic to other risk management activities such as Financial Risk Management and Internationalization. The topics will include state of the art technology such as semantic analysis, ontology engineering, data mining and statistical analysis.

Proper orthogonal decomposition applied to laminar thermal convection in a vertical two plate channel

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alvarez-Herrera, C; Murillo-Ramírez, J G; Pérez-Reyes, I; Moreno-Hernández, D

2015-01-01

This work reports the thermal convection with imposed shear flow in a thin two-plate channel. Flow structures are investigated under heating asymmetric conditions and different laminar flow conditions. The dynamics of heat flow and the energy distribution were determined by visualization with the Schlieren technique and application of the proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) method. The obtained results from the POD mode analysis revealed that for some flow conditions the heat transfer is related to the energy of the POD modes and their characteristic numbers. It was possible to detect periodic motion in the two-plate channel flow from the POD mode analysis. It was also found that when the energy is distributed among many POD modes, the fluid flow is disorganized and unsteady. (paper)

THE TEACHERS ROLE IN FORMING PROPER BODY POSTURE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zoran Bogdanović

2007-05-01

Full Text Available Being acquainted and well aware of the presence of physical deformation in school population, this study is based on the research of postural deformity of the pupils of the 5th grade of elementary school and determination of dependance of deformations appearance in relation to frequency of remonstration and indication to correct sitting position from proffesors’ perspective. The complete program content is conducted in the territory of the city of Kragujevac in several elementary schools comprising 299 students of the 5th grade. The object was to determine the number of students with kyphotic and lordotic deformity, to determine the presence of deformation in depandance of gender and to determine the presence of kyphotic and lordotic deformity in depandance of the frequency of proffesors indication to improper sitting. We can notice higher presence of kyphotic deformity at the probationers of male population that it is the case with female population while the higher presence of lordotic deformity is at female population.The highest number of probationers have reported that none of the proffesors warn them about proper sitting. The measures inside the groups sorted by gender qualifi cation, indicate on high percentage of both boys and girls who are not warned on proper sitting. Also, inside the groups of improper body holders, we can notice the most signifi cant kyphotic and lordotic deformity in the category of students who are never warned to sit properly. These indicators report us that is necessary to invest much more work on the education of parents and children as well as school stuff at the preschool and school institutions which would result in reducing the appearence and development of postural deformity at the population who is more liable to transformations of such kind.

Risk assessment of forensic patients: nurses' role.

Science.gov (United States)

Encinares, Maxima; McMaster, Jeff James; McNamee, Jim

2005-03-01

One of the unique roles of forensic nurses is to conduct risk assessments. Establishing a therapeutic nurse-patient relationship helps forensic nurses perform accurate and useful risk assessments. Accurate risk assessments can facilitate formulation of individualized risk management plans, designed to meet patients' needs and ensure public safety. The importance of forensic nurses' knowledge and application of appropriate communication and proper documentation cannot be overemphasized.

Risk-Informed Decision Making: Application to Technology Development Alternative Selection

Science.gov (United States)

Dezfuli, Homayoon; Maggio, Gaspare; Everett, Christopher

2010-01-01

NASA NPR 8000.4A, Agency Risk Management Procedural Requirements, defines risk management in terms of two complementary processes: Risk-informed Decision Making (RIDM) and Continuous Risk Management (CRM). The RIDM process is used to inform decision making by emphasizing proper use of risk analysis to make decisions that impact all mission execution domains (e.g., safety, technical, cost, and schedule) for program/projects and mission support organizations. The RIDM process supports the selection of an alternative prior to program commitment. The CRM process is used to manage risk associated with the implementation of the selected alternative. The two processes work together to foster proactive risk management at NASA. The Office of Safety and Mission Assurance at NASA Headquarters has developed a technical handbook to provide guidance for implementing the RIDM process in the context of NASA risk management and systems engineering. This paper summarizes the key concepts and procedures of the RIDM process as presented in the handbook, and also illustrates how the RIDM process can be applied to the selection of technology investments as NASA's new technology development programs are initiated.

A generalised Green-Julg theorem for proper groupoids and Banach algebras

OpenAIRE

Paravicini, Walther

2009-01-01

The Green-Julg theorem states that K_0^G(B) is isomorphic to K_0(L^1(G,B)) for every compact group G and every G-C*-algebra B. We formulate a generalisation of this result to proper groupoids and Banach algebras and deduce that the Bost assembly map is surjective for proper Banach algebras. On the way, we show that the spectral radius of an element in a C_0(X)-Banach algebra can be calculated from the spectral radius in the fibres.

Intentional risk management through complex networks analysis

CERN Document Server

Chapela, Victor; Moral, Santiago; Romance, Miguel

2015-01-01

This book combines game theory and complex networks to examine intentional technological risk through modeling. As information security risks are in constant evolution,  the methodologies and tools to manage them must evolve to an ever-changing environment. A formal global methodology is explained  in this book, which is able to analyze risks in cyber security based on complex network models and ideas extracted from the Nash equilibrium. A risk management methodology for IT critical infrastructures is introduced which provides guidance and analysis on decision making models and real situations. This model manages the risk of succumbing to a digital attack and assesses an attack from the following three variables: income obtained, expense needed to carry out an attack, and the potential consequences for an attack. Graduate students and researchers interested in cyber security, complex network applications and intentional risk will find this book useful as it is filled with a number of models, methodologies a...

Arenal-type pyroclastic flows: A probabilistic event tree risk analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Meloy, Anthony F.

2006-09-01

A quantitative hazard-specific scenario-modelling risk analysis is performed at Arenal volcano, Costa Rica for the newly recognised Arenal-type pyroclastic flow (ATPF) phenomenon using an event tree framework. These flows are generated by the sudden depressurisation and fragmentation of an active basaltic andesite lava pool as a result of a partial collapse of the crater wall. The deposits of this type of flow include angular blocks and juvenile clasts, which are rarely found in other types of pyroclastic flow. An event tree analysis (ETA) is a useful tool and framework in which to analyse and graphically present the probabilities of the occurrence of many possible events in a complex system. Four event trees are created in the analysis, three of which are extended to investigate the varying individual risk faced by three generic representatives of the surrounding community: a resident, a worker, and a tourist. The raw numerical risk estimates determined by the ETA are converted into a set of linguistic expressions (i.e. VERY HIGH, HIGH, MODERATE etc.) using an established risk classification scale. Three individually tailored semi-quantitative risk maps are then created from a set of risk conversion tables to show how the risk varies for each individual in different areas around the volcano. In some cases, by relocating from the north to the south, the level of risk can be reduced by up to three classes. While the individual risk maps may be broadly applicable, and therefore of interest to the general community, the risk maps and associated probability values generated in the ETA are intended to be used by trained professionals and government agencies to evaluate the risk and effectively manage the long-term development of infrastructure and habitation. With the addition of fresh monitoring data, the combination of both long- and short-term event trees would provide a comprehensive and consistent method of risk analysis (both during and pre-crisis), and as such

Analysis of human error and organizational deficiency in events considering risk significance

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Yong Suk; Kim, Yoonik; Kim, Say Hyung; Kim, Chansoo; Chung, Chang Hyun; Jung, Won Dea

2004-01-01

In this study, we analyzed human and organizational deficiencies in the trip events of Korean nuclear power plants. K-HPES items were used in human error analysis, and the organizational factors by Jacobs and Haber were used for organizational deficiency analysis. We proposed the use of CCDP as a risk measure to consider risk information in prioritizing K-HPES items and organizational factors. Until now, the risk significance of events has not been considered in human error and organizational deficiency analysis. Considering the risk significance of events in the process of analysis is necessary for effective enhancement of nuclear power plant safety by focusing on causes of human error and organizational deficiencies that are associated with significant risk

Analysis of risk assessment methods for goods trucking

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yunyazova A.O.

2018-04-01

Full Text Available the article considers models of risk assessment that can be applied to cargo transportation, for forecasting possible damage in the form of financial and material costs in order to reduce the percentage of probability of their occurrence. The analysis of risk by the method «Criterion. Event. Rule" is represented. This method is based on the collection of information by various methods, assigning an assessment to the identified risks, ranking and formulating a report on the analysis. It can be carried out as a fully manual mechanical method of information collecting and performing calculations or can be brought to an automated level from data collection to the delivery of finished results (but in this case some nuances that could significantly influence the outcome of the analysis can be ignored. The expert method is of particular importance, since it relies directly on human experience. In this case, a special role is played by the human factor. The collection of information and the assigned assessments to risk groups depend on the extent to which experts agree on this issue. The smaller the fluctuations in the values ​​of the estimates of the experts, the more accurate and optimal the results will be.

Cable Hot Shorts and Circuit Analysis in Fire Risk Assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

LaChance, Jeffrey; Nowlen, Steven P.; Wyant, Frank

1999-01-01

Under existing methods of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), the analysis of fire-induced circuit faults has typically been conducted on a simplistic basis. In particular, those hot-short methodologies that have been applied remain controversial in regards to the scope of the assessments, the underlying methods, and the assumptions employed. To address weaknesses in fire PRA methodologies, the USNRC has initiated a fire risk analysis research program that includes a task for improving the tools for performing circuit analysis. The objective of this task is to obtain a better understanding of the mechanisms linking fire-induced cable damage to potentially risk-significant failure modes of power, control, and instrumentation cables. This paper discusses the current status of the circuit analysis task

SCORING ASSESSMENT AND FORECASTING MODELS BANKRUPTCY RISK OF COMPANIES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

SUSU Stefanita

2014-07-01

Full Text Available Bankruptcy risk made the subject of many research studies that aim at identifying the time of the bankruptcy, the factors that compete to achieve this state, the indicators that best express this orientation (the bankruptcy. The threats to enterprises require the managers knowledge of continually economic and financial situations, and vulnerable areas with development potential. Managers need to identify and properly manage the threats that would prevent achieving the targets. In terms of methods known in the literature of assessment and evaluation of bankruptcy risk they are static, functional, strategic, and scoring nonfinancial models. This article addresses Altman and Conan-Holder-known internationally as the model developed at national level by two teachers from prestigious universities in our country-the Robu-Mironiuc model. Those models are applied to data released by the profit and loss account and balance sheet Turism Covasna company over which bankruptcy risk analysis is performed. The results of the analysis are interpreted while trying to formulate solutions to the economic and financial viability of the entity.

Impact Analysis for Risks in Informatics Systems

OpenAIRE

Baicu, Floarea; Baches, Maria Alexandra

2013-01-01

In this paper are presented methods of impact analysis on informatics system security accidents, qualitative and quantitative methods, starting with risk and informational system security definitions. It is presented the relationship between the risks of exploiting vulnerabilities of security system, security level of these informatics systems, probability of exploiting the weak points subject to financial losses of a company, respectively impact of a security accident on the company. Herewit...

Risk D and D Rapid Prototype: Scenario Documentation and Analysis Tool

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Unwin, Stephen D.; Seiple, Timothy E.

2009-01-01

Report describes process and methodology associated with a rapid prototype tool for integrating project risk analysis and health and safety risk analysis for decontamination and decommissioning projects. The objective of the Decontamination and Decommissioning (D and D) Risk Management Evaluation and Work Sequencing Standardization Project under DOE EM-23 is to recommend or develop practical risk-management tools for decommissioning of nuclear facilities. PNNL has responsibility under this project for recommending or developing computer-based tools that facilitate the evaluation of risks in order to optimize the sequencing of D and D work. PNNL's approach is to adapt, augment, and integrate existing resources rather than to develop a new suite of tools. Methods for the evaluation of H and S risks associated with work in potentially hazardous environments are well-established. Several approaches exist which, collectively, are referred to as process hazard analysis (PHA). A PHA generally involves the systematic identification of accidents, exposures, and other adverse events associated with a given process or work flow. This identification process is usually achieved in a brainstorming environment or by other means of eliciting informed opinion. The likelihoods of adverse events (scenarios) and their associated consequence severities are estimated against pre-defined scales, based on which risk indices are then calculated. A similar process is encoded in various project risk software products that facilitate the quantification of schedule and cost risks associated with adverse scenarios. However, risk models do not generally capture both project risk and H and S risk. The intent of the project reported here is to produce a tool that facilitates the elicitation, characterization, and documentation of both project risk and H and S risk based on defined sequences of D and D activities. By considering alternative D and D sequences, comparison of the predicted risks can

Treatment of Proper Name Retrieval Deficits in an Individual with Temporal Lobe Epilepsy

Science.gov (United States)

Minkina, Irene; Ojemann, Jeffrey G.; Grabowski, Thomas J.; Silkes, JoAnn P.; Phatak, Vaishali; Kendall, Diane L.

2013-01-01

Purpose: Studies investigating language deficits in individuals with left temporal-lobe epilepsy have consistently demonstrated impairments in proper name retrieval. The aim of this Phase I rehabilitation study was to investigate the effects of a linguistically distributed word retrieval treatment on proper name retrieval in an individual with…

A risk-informed perspective on deterministic safety analysis of nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wan, P.T.

2009-01-01

In this work, the deterministic safety analysis (DSA) approach to nuclear safety is examined from a risk-informed perspective. One objective of safety analysis of a nuclear power plant is to demonstrate via analysis that the risks to the public from events or accidents that are within the design basis of the power plant are within acceptable levels with a high degree of assurance. This nuclear safety analysis objective can be translated into two requirements on the risk estimates of design basis events or accidents: the nominal risk estimate to the public must be shown to be within acceptable levels, and the uncertainty in the risk estimates must be shown to be small on an absolute or relative basis. The DSA approach combined with the defense-in-depth (DID) principle is a simplified safety analysis approach that attempts to achieve the above safety analysis objective in the face of potentially large uncertainties in the risk estimates of a nuclear power plant by treating the various uncertainty contributors using a stylized conservative binary (yes-no) approach, and applying multiple overlapping physical barriers and defense levels to protect against the release of radioactivity from the reactor. It is shown that by focusing on the consequence aspect of risk, the previous two nuclear safety analysis requirements on risk can be satisfied with the DSA-DID approach to nuclear safety. It is also shown the use of multiple overlapping physical barriers and defense levels in the traditional DSA-DID approach to nuclear safety is risk-informed in the sense that it provides a consistently high level of confidence in the validity of the safety analysis results for various design basis events or accidents with a wide range of frequency of occurrence. It is hoped that by providing a linkage between the consequence analysis approach in DSA with a risk-informed perspective, greater understanding of the limitation and capability of the DSA approach is obtained. (author)

Risk factor analysis of equine strongyle resistance to anthelmintics

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

G. Sallé

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Intestinal strongyles are the most problematic endoparasites of equids as a result of their wide distribution and the spread of resistant isolates throughout the world. While abundant literature can be found on the extent of anthelmintic resistance across continents, empirical knowledge about associated risk factors is missing. This study brought together results from anthelmintic efficacy testing and risk factor analysis to provide evidence-based guidelines in the field. It involved 688 horses from 39 French horse farms and riding schools to both estimate Faecal Egg Count Reduction (FECR after anthelmintic treatment and to interview farm and riding school managers about their practices. Risk factors associated with reduced anthelmintic efficacy in equine strongyles were estimated across drugs using a marginal modelling approach. Results demonstrated ivermectin efficacy (96.3% ± 14.5% FECR, the inefficacy of fenbendazole (42.8% ± 33.4% FECR and an intermediate profile for pyrantel (90.3% ± 19.6% FECR. Risk factor analysis provided support to advocate for FEC-based treatment regimens combined with individual anthelmintic dosage and the enforcement of tighter biosecurity around horse introduction. The combination of these measures resulted in a decreased risk of drug resistance (relative risk of 0.57, p = 0.02. Premises falling under this typology also relied more on their veterinarians suggesting practitionners play an important role in the sustainability of anthelmintic usage. Similarly, drug resistance risk was halved in premises with frequent pasture rotation and with stocking rate below five horses/ha (relative risk of 0.53, p < 0.01. This is the first empirical risk factor analysis for anthelmintic resistance in equids. Our findings should guide the implementation of more sustained strongyle management in the field. Keywords: Horse, Nematode, Anthelmintic resistance, Strongyle, Cyathostomin

Stress Analysis in Managing the Region’s Budget Risks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Natalya Pavlovna Pazdnikova

2014-09-01

Full Text Available The article addresses the implementation of budget risk management methods into the practices of governmental authorities. Drawing on the example of a particular region the article aims to demonstrate the possible methods of budget risk management. The authors refine the existing approaches to the notion of risk in its relation to budget system by introducing the notion of “budget risk.” Here the focus is the risk of default of budget spending in full which causes underfunding of territories and decrease in quality of life in the region. The authors have particularized the classification of budget risks and grouped together the criteria and factors which significantly influence the assessment and choice of method to manage budget risks. They hypothesize that budget risk is a financial risk. Therefore, the methods of financial risks management can be applied to budget risks management. The authors suggest a methodological approach to risk assessment based on correlation and regression analysis of program financing. The application of Kendall rank correlation coefficient allowed to assess the efficiency of budget spending on the implementation of state programs in Perm Krai. Two clusters — “Nature management and infrastructure” and “Public security” — turned out to be in the zone of high budget risk. The method of stress analysis, which consists in calculating Value at Risk (VaR, was applied to budget risks that in terms of probability are classified as critical. In order to assess risk as probability rate, the amount of Perm Krai deficit budget was calculated as induced variable from budget revenues and spending. The results demonstrate that contemporary management of public resources in the regions calls for the implementation of new management tools of higher quality and budget risk management is one of them.

Discrete event simulation versus conventional system reliability analysis approaches

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kozine, Igor

2010-01-01

Discrete Event Simulation (DES) environments are rapidly developing and appear to be promising tools for building reliability and risk analysis models of safety-critical systems and human operators. If properly developed, they are an alternative to the conventional human reliability analysis models...... and systems analysis methods such as fault and event trees and Bayesian networks. As one part, the paper describes briefly the author’s experience in applying DES models to the analysis of safety-critical systems in different domains. The other part of the paper is devoted to comparing conventional approaches...

77 FR 70484 - Preoperational Testing of Onsite Electric Power Systems To Verify Proper Load Group Assignments...

Science.gov (United States)

2012-11-26

...-1294, ``Preoperational Testing of On-Site Electric Power Systems to Verify Proper Load Group... entitled ``Preoperational Testing of On- Site Electric Power Systems to Verify Proper Load Group... Electric Power Systems to Verify Proper Load Group Assignments, Electrical Separation, and Redundancy...

An enhanced data-analytic framework for integrating risk management and performance management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thekdi, Shital; Aven, Terje

2016-01-01

There is increasing interest for agencies and industries to develop risk management processes for a wide variety of applications. Traditional risk management processes are motivated by controlling risk and avoiding losses. In contrast, other organizational processes focus on managing performance and value generation. In this paper we argue that risk management also adds an important contribution to these processes. However, this requires “proper” risk management extending beyond narrow safety oriented perspectives built on quantitative risk analysis and tolerability/acceptance criteria. There is need for a broad risk-performance framework with uncertainty being a main component of risk, and where knowledge and surprises are adequately reflected. In the paper we present and discuss such a framework. The framework is developed on the basis of an analysis of combinations of different risk management and performance management practices/policies. We show how the risk and performance management processes can be improved by proper risk conceptualization and a holistic thinking on how to develop and use goals in the organization, how to balance different concerns, and consider the need for agility – “sensitivity to operations”, as well as how to give weight to vulnerabilities, resilience, and antifragility. - Highlights: • We relate key performance management and risk management principles. • We propose an enhanced framework to unify thinking of performance and risk. • We apply the framework to a public-private partnership case study.

Explaining HIV Risk Multiplexity: A Social Network Analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Felsher, Marisa; Koku, Emmanuel

2018-04-21

Risk multiplexity (i.e., overlap in drug-use, needle exchange and sexual relations) is a known risk factor for HIV. However, little is known about predictors of multiplexity. This study uses egocentric data from the Colorado Springs study to examine how individual, behavioral and social network factors influence engagement in multiplex risk behavior. Analyses revealed that compared to Whites, Hispanics were significantly more likely to engage in risk multiplexity and Blacks less so. Respondents who were similar to each other (e.g., in terms of race) had significantly higher odds of being in risk multiplex relationships, and respondents' risk perceptions and network size were significantly associated with engaging in multiplex risk behaviors. Findings from interaction analysis showed the effect of knowing someone with HIV on the odds of multiplexity depends partly on whether respondents' know their HIV status. Findings suggest that demographics, HIV behaviors and network factors impact engagement in multiplex risk behaviors, highlighting the need for multi-level interventions aimed at reducing HIV risk behavior.

Dynamic risk analysis using bow-tie approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Khakzad, Nima; Khan, Faisal; Amyotte, Paul

2012-01-01

Accident probability estimation is a common and central step to all quantitative risk assessment methods. Among many techniques available, bow-tie model (BT) is very popular because it represent the accident scenario altogether including causes and consequences. However, it suffers a static structure limiting its application in real-time monitoring and probability updating which are key factors in dynamic risk analysis. The present work is focused on using BT approach in a dynamic environment in which the occurrence probability of accident consequences changes. In this method, on one hand, failure probability of primary events of BT, leading to the top event, are developed using physical reliability models, and constantly revised as physical parameters (e.g., pressure, velocity, dimension, etc) change. And, on the other hand, the failure probability of safety barriers of the BT are periodically updated using Bayes’ theorem as new information becomes available over time. Finally, the resulting, updated BT is used to estimate the posterior probability of the consequences which in turn results in an updated risk profile. - Highlights: ► A methodology is proposed to make bow-tie method adapted for dynamic risk analysis. ► Physical reliability models are used to revise the top event. ► Bayes’ theorem is used to update the probability of safety barriers. ► The number of accidents in sequential time intervals is used to form likelihood function. ► The risk profile is updated for varying physical parameters and for different times.

Project Portfolio Risk Identification and Analysis, Considering Project Risk Interactions and Using Bayesian Networks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Foroogh Ghasemi

2018-05-01

Full Text Available An organization’s strategic objectives are accomplished through portfolios. However, the materialization of portfolio risks may affect a portfolio’s sustainable success and the achievement of those objectives. Moreover, project interdependencies and cause–effect relationships between risks create complexity for portfolio risk analysis. This paper presents a model using Bayesian network (BN methodology for modeling and analyzing portfolio risks. To develop this model, first, portfolio-level risks and risks caused by project interdependencies are identified. Then, based on their cause–effect relationships all portfolio risks are organized in a BN. Conditional probability distributions for this network are specified and the Bayesian networks method is used to estimate the probability of portfolio risk. This model was applied to a portfolio of a construction company located in Iran and proved effective in analyzing portfolio risk probability. Furthermore, the model provided valuable information for selecting a portfolio’s projects and making strategic decisions.

Certification and risk management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Villanueva Fernandez, M.

2015-01-01

Nowadays more organizations are increasingly aware of the importance of properly managing the uncertainty of its activities and build competitive advantages through the identification, assessment and management of risks that they face. Risk management is also an aspect of great importance within the new version of ISO fact it is one of the most innovative and also the most laborious, because an appropriate risk management achieves expected results and customer satisfaction. In conclusion, risk management is a new field of business and can be considered a cross-cutting component for other relevant factors of organizational change management. (Author)

UCAC3 PROPER MOTION SURVEY. II. DISCOVERY OF NEW PROPER MOTION STARS IN UCAC3 WITH 0.''40 yr–1 > μ ≥ 0.''18 yr–1 BETWEEN DECLINATIONS –47° and 00°

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Finch, Charlie T.; Zacharias, Norbert; Boyd, Mark R.; Henry, Todd J.; Hambly, Nigel C.

2012-01-01

We present 474 new proper motion stellar systems in the southern sky having no previously known components, with 0.''40 yr –1 >μ ≥ 0.''18 yr –1 between declinations –47° and 0°. In this second paper utilizing the U.S. Naval Observatory third CCD Astrograph Catalog (UCAC3) we complete our sweep of the southern sky for objects in the proper motion range targeted by this survey with R magnitudes ranging from 9.80 to 19.61. The new systems contribute a ∼16% increase in the number of new stellar systems for the same region of sky reported in previous SuperCOSMOS Research Consortium On Nearby Stars (RECONS) surveys. Among the newly discovered stellar systems are 16 multiples, plus an additional ten components that are new common proper motion companions to previously known objects. A comparison of UCAC3 proper motions to those from Hipparcos, Tycho-2, Southern Proper Motion, and SuperCOSMOS indicates that all proper motions are consistent to ∼10 mas yr –1 , with the exception of SuperCOSMOS. Distance estimates are derived for all stellar systems having SuperCOSMOS Sky Survey B J , R 59F , and I IVN plate magnitudes and Two Micron All Sky Survey (2MASS) infrared photometry. We find five new red dwarf systems estimated to be within 25 pc. These discoveries support results from previous proper motion surveys suggesting that more nearby stellar systems are to be found, particularly in the fainter, slower moving samples. In this second paper utilizing the UCAC3 we complete our sweep of the southern sky for objects in the proper motion range targeted by this survey with R magnitudes ranging from 9.80 to 19.61.

The prostate cancer risk stratification (ProCaRS) project: Recursive partitioning risk stratification analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rodrigues, George; Lukka, Himu; Warde, Padraig; Brundage, Michael; Souhami, Luis; Crook, Juanita; Cury, Fabio; Catton, Charles; Mok, Gary; Martin, Andre-Guy; Vigneault, Eric; Morris, Jim; Warner, Andrew; Gonzalez Maldonado, Sandra; Pickles, Tom

2013-01-01

Background: The Genitourinary Radiation Oncologists of Canada (GUROC) published a three-group risk stratification (RS) system to assist prostate cancer decision-making in 2001. The objective of this project is to use the ProCaRS database to statistically model the predictive accuracy and clinical utility of a proposed new multi-group RS schema. Methods: The RS analyses utilized the ProCaRS database that consists of 7974 patients from four Canadian institutions. Recursive partitioning analysis (RPA) was utilized to explore the sub-stratification of groups defined by the existing three-group GUROC scheme. 10-fold cross-validated C-indices and the Net Reclassification Index were both used to assess multivariable models and compare the predictive accuracy of existing and proposed RS systems, respectively. Results: The recursive partitioning analysis has suggested that the existing GUROC classification system could be altered to accommodate as many as six separate and statistical unique groups based on differences in BFFS (C-index 0.67 and AUC 0.70). GUROC low-risk patients would be divided into new favorable-low and low-risk groups based on PSA ⩽6 and PSA >6. GUROC intermediate-risk patients can be subclassified into low-intermediate and high-intermediate groups. GUROC high-intermediate-risk is defined as existing GUROC intermediate-risk with PSA >=10 AND either T2b/c disease or T1T2a disease with Gleason 7. GUROC high-risk patients would be subclassified into an additional extreme-risk group (GUROC high-risk AND (positive cores ⩾87.5% OR PSA >30). Conclusions: Proposed RS subcategories have been identified by a RPA of the ProCaRS database

THE ANALYSIS OF RISK MANAGEMENT PROCESS WITHIN MANAGEMENT

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

ROMANESCU MARCEL LAURENTIU

2016-10-01

Full Text Available This article highlights the risk analysis within management, focusing on how a company could practicaly integrate the risks management in the existing leading process. Subsequently, it is exemplified the way of manage risk effectively, which gives numerous advantages to all firms, including improving their decision-making process. All these lead to the conclusion that the degree of risk specific to companies is very high, but if managers make the best decisions then it can diminish it and all business activitiy and its income are not influenced by factors that could disturb in a negative way .

Proper Lens Care (A Minute of Health with CDC)

Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

Wearing contact lenses is a convenient way to improve vision without having to wear glasses. But unlike glasses, improper care and maintenance of lenses can result in severe eye problems, including blindness. This podcast discusses the importance of proper lens hygiene and maintenance.

What is the proper evaluation method: Some basic considerations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Leeb, Helmut; Schnabel, Georg; Srdinko, Thomas

2014-01-01

Recent developments and applications demand for an extension of the energy range and the inclusion of reliable uncertainty information in nuclear data libraries. Due to the scarcity of neutron-induced reaction data beyond 20 MeV the extension of the energy range up to at least 150 MeV is not trivial because the corresponding nuclear data evaluations depend heavily on nuclear models and proper evaluation methods are still under discussion. Restricting to evaluation techniques based on Bayesian statistics the influence of the a priori knowledge on the final result of the evaluation is considered. The study clearly indicates the need to account properly for the deficiencies of the nuclear model. Concerning the covariance matrices it is argued that they depend not only on the model, but also on the method of generation and an additional consent is required for the comparison of different evaluations of the same data sets. (authors)

Use-related risk analysis for medical devices based on improved FMEA.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Long; Shuai, Ma; Wang, Zhu; Li, Ping

2012-01-01

In order to effectively analyze and control use-related risk of medical devices, quantitative methodologies must be applied. Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) is a proactive technique for error detection and risk reduction. In this article, an improved FMEA based on Fuzzy Mathematics and Grey Relational Theory is developed to better carry out user-related risk analysis for medical devices. As an example, the analysis process using this improved FMEA method for a certain medical device (C-arm X-ray machine) is described.

Radial velocities for the HIPPARCOS-Gaia Hundred-Thousand-Proper-Motion project

Science.gov (United States)

de Bruijne, J. H. J.; Eilers, A.-C.

2012-10-01

Context. The Hundred-Thousand-Proper-Motion (HTPM) project will determine the proper motions of ~113 500 stars using a ~23-year baseline. The proper motions will be based on space-based measurements exclusively, with the Hipparcos data, with epoch 1991.25, as first epoch and with the first intermediate-release Gaia astrometry, with epoch ~2014.5, as second epoch. The expected HTPM proper-motion standard errors are 30-190 μas yr-1, depending on stellar magnitude. Aims: Depending on the astrometric characteristics of an object, in particular its distance and velocity, its radial velocity can have a significant impact on the determination of its proper motion. The impact of this perspective acceleration is largest for fast-moving, nearby stars. Our goal is to determine, for each star in the Hipparcos catalogue, the radial-velocity standard error that is required to guarantee a negligible contribution of perspective acceleration to the HTPM proper-motion precision. Methods: We employ two evaluation criteria, both based on Monte-Carlo simulations, with which we determine which stars need to be spectroscopically (re-)measured. Both criteria take the Hipparcos measurement errors into account. The first criterion, the Gaussian criterion, is applicable to nearby stars. For distant stars, this criterion works but returns overly pessimistic results. We therefore use a second criterion, the robust criterion, which is equivalent to the Gaussian criterion for nearby stars but avoids biases for distant stars and/or objects without literature radial velocity. The robust criterion is hence our prefered choice for all stars, regardless of distance. Results: For each star in the Hipparcos catalogue, we determine the confidence level with which the available radial velocity and its standard error, taken from the XHIP compilation catalogue, are acceptable. We find that for 97 stars, the radial velocities available in the literature are insufficiently precise for a 68.27% confidence

Twisted equivariant K-theory, groupoids and proper actions

OpenAIRE

Cantarero, Jose

2009-01-01

In this paper we define twisted equivariant K-theory for actions of Lie groupoids. For a Bredon-compatible Lie groupoid, this defines a periodic cohomology theory on the category of finite CW-complexes with equivariant stable projective bundles. A classification of these bundles is shown. We also obtain a completion theorem and apply these results to proper actions of groups.

Optimizing chain life in bucket elevators through proper design and elongation measurement

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Luglio, J.J. [Rexnord, Inc., Milwaukee, WI (United States)

2001-04-01

Since down time in the bulk solids handling industry is so expensive, bucket elevators must operate with extreme reliability, and, of course, the cost per ton of material conveyed must be minimized. This means balancing initial costs, operating and maintenance costs as well as minimizing the inventory of parts required in order to insure reliability. The elevator must be designed properly for each application. It must also be operated and maintained properly. (orig.)

Synthesis of Enterprise and Value-Based Methods for Multiattribute Risk Analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kenley, C. Robert; Collins, John W.; Beck, John M.; Heydt, Harold J.; Garcia, Chad B.

2001-01-01

This paper describes a method for performing multiattribute decision analysis to prioritize ap-proaches to handling risks during the development and operation of complex socio-technical systems. The method combines risk categorization based on enterprise views, risk prioritization of the categories based on the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), and more standard probability-consequence ratings schemes. We also apply value-based testing me-thods used in software development to prioritize risk-handling approaches. We describe a tool that synthesizes the methods and performs a multiattribute analysis of the technical and pro-grammatic risks on the Next Generation Nuclear Plant (NGNP) enterprise.

Risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Correa Lizarazu, X.

2013-01-01

The power point presentation Colombia risk evaluation experiences, sanitarian regulations evolution, chemical dangers food, biological dangers food, codex alimentarius, trade, industrial effects, dangers identification, data collection and risk profile

Market Microstructure Effects on Firm Default Risk Evaluation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Flavia Barsotti

2016-07-01

Full Text Available Default probability is a fundamental variable determining the credit worthiness of a firm and equity volatility estimation plays a key role in its evaluation. Assuming a structural credit risk modeling approach, we study the impact of choosing different non parametric equity volatility estimators on default probability evaluation, when market microstructure noise is considered. A general stochastic volatility framework with jumps for the underlying asset dynamics is defined inside a Merton-like structural model. To estimate the volatility risk component of a firm we use high-frequency equity data: market microstructure noise is introduced as a direct effect of observing noisy high-frequency equity prices. A Monte Carlo simulation analysis is conducted to (i test the performance of alternative non-parametric equity volatility estimators in their capability of filtering out the microstructure noise and backing out the true unobservable asset volatility; (ii study the effects of different non-parametric estimation techniques on default probability evaluation. The impact of the non-parametric volatility estimators on risk evaluation is not negligible: a sensitivity analysis defined for alternative values of the leverage parameter and average jumps size reveals that the characteristics of the dataset are crucial to determine which is the proper estimator to consider from a credit risk perspective.

The approach to risk analysis in three industries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Garrick, B.J.

1991-01-01

It is the purpose of this paper to review how risk and safety analysis is performed in the three major industries of nuclear power, space flight, and chemical and petroleum processes. The underlying reason for such a review is the belief that efficiencies and safety enhancements may result from a greater exchange of risk assessment technology between these industries. The thrust of this discussion related to the engineered systems involved in the three industries. The industries are very different. The chemical industry epitomizes the highly competitive private sector and its bottom-line emphasis; the nuclear power industry is unique by the degree to which it is regulated; and the space industry is essentially a government business just beginning to have commercial implications. Institutional differences are extreme; however, from a societal needs, and their safety implications have a far reaching impact on public opinion and support. In reviewing the risk and safety analysis activities, particular attention is given to the use of such quantitative approaches as probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) as it has evolved in the nuclear power industry

Risk analysis and priority setting for environmental policy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Travis, C.C.

1991-01-01

There is a growing realization that the demand for funding to correct our nation's environmental problems will soon outstrip available resources. In the hazardous waste area alone, the estimated cost of remediating Superfund sites ranges from $32 billion to $80 billion. Numerous other areas of competing for these same financial resources. These include ozone depletion, global warming, the protection of endangered species and wetlands, toxic air pollution, carcinogenic pesticides, and urban smog. In response to this imbalance in the supply and demand for national funds, several political constituencies are calling for the use of risk assessment as a tool in the prioritization of research and budget needs. Comparative risk analysis offers a logical framework in which to organize information about complex environmental problems. Risk analysis allows policy analysts to make resource allocation decisions on the basis of scientific judgement rather than political expediency

A Study on Determination of Proper Pressurizer Level for Kori Unit 1

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lee, Chang Sup; Song, Dong Soo [Korea Electric Power Research Institute, Taejon (Korea, Republic of)

1996-12-31

1. Determination of Proper Pressurizer Level. To determine operation level of pressurizer, LOFTRAN code is used with conservative model and assumption. 2. Performance Analysis. To simulate the plant, RETRAN computer code is used with realistic model and assumptions. The control and protection systems are fully credited. The turbine trip event is simulated at the condition of 47.62% of pressurizer level at full power. After that the same event as that with 55% of pressurizer level is simulated. And the FSAR requirements of pressurizer are verified with the new level setpoints. 3. Safety Analysis. As safety analyses, Loss of Normal Feedwater/Station Blackout which is significantly affected by the initial pressurizer water level is performed. Turbine Trip accident is also analyzed to verify if the peak primary side pressure is within the limit. LOFTRAN code is used with conservative mode and assumption. 3. Steam Generator Replacement. Relating to the steam generator replacement planed in 1998, safety analysis in terms of pressurizer level setpoint change. 4. Limit Condition for Operation. The LCO of pressurizer level is changed from 60% to 67.4% which is included pressurizer level uncertainty. (author). 13 refs., figs., tabs.

Body mass index and risk of BPH: a meta-analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, S; Mao, Q; Lin, Y; Wu, J; Wang, X; Zheng, X; Xie, L

2012-09-01

Epidemiological studies have reported conflicting results relating obesity to BPH. A meta-analysis of cohort and case-control studies was conducted to pool the risk estimates of the association between obesity and BPH. Eligible studies were retrieved by both computer searches and review of references. We analyzed abstracted data with random effects models to obtain the summary risk estimates. Dose-response meta-analysis was performed for studies reporting categorical risk estimates for a series of exposure levels. A total of 19 studies met the inclusion criteria of the meta-analysis. Positive association with body mass index (BMI) was observed in BPH and lower urinary tract symptoms (LUTS) combined group (odds ratio=1.27, 95% confidence intervals 1.05-1.53). In subgroup analysis, BMI exhibited a positive dose-response relationship with BPH/LUTS in population-based case-control studies and a marginal positive association was observed between risk of BPH and increased BMI. However, no association between BPH/LUTS and BMI was observed in other subgroups stratified by study design, geographical region or primary outcome. The overall current literatures suggested that BMI was associated with increased risk of BPH. Further efforts should be made to confirm these findings and clarify the underlying biological mechanisms.

Adversarial risk analysis with incomplete information: a level-k approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Rothschild, Casey; McLay, Laura; Guikema, Seth

2012-07-01

This article proposes, develops, and illustrates the application of level-k game theory to adversarial risk analysis. Level-k reasoning, which assumes that players play strategically but have bounded rationality, is useful for operationalizing a Bayesian approach to adversarial risk analysis. It can be applied in a broad class of settings, including settings with asynchronous play and partial but incomplete revelation of early moves. Its computational and elicitation requirements are modest. We illustrate the approach with an application to a simple defend-attack model in which the defender's countermeasures are revealed with a probability less than one to the attacker before he decides on how or whether to attack. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

Structural reliability analysis applied to pipeline risk analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gardiner, M. [GL Industrial Services, Loughborough (United Kingdom); Mendes, Renato F.; Donato, Guilherme V.P. [PETROBRAS S.A., Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

2009-07-01

Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) of pipelines requires two main components to be provided. These are models of the consequences that follow from some loss of containment incident, and models for the likelihood of such incidents occurring. This paper describes how PETROBRAS have used Structural Reliability Analysis for the second of these, to provide pipeline- and location-specific predictions of failure frequency for a number of pipeline assets. This paper presents an approach to estimating failure rates for liquid and gas pipelines, using Structural Reliability Analysis (SRA) to analyze the credible basic mechanisms of failure such as corrosion and mechanical damage. SRA is a probabilistic limit state method: for a given failure mechanism it quantifies the uncertainty in parameters to mathematical models of the load-resistance state of a structure and then evaluates the probability of load exceeding resistance. SRA can be used to benefit the pipeline risk management process by optimizing in-line inspection schedules, and as part of the design process for new construction in pipeline rights of way that already contain multiple lines. A case study is presented to show how the SRA approach has recently been used on PETROBRAS pipelines and the benefits obtained from it. (author)

Corrections to the Hipparcos proper motions in declination for 807 stars

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Damljanović G.

2008-01-01

Full Text Available We used the data on latitude variations obtained from observations with 10 classical photographic zenith tubes (PZT in order to improve the Hipparcos proper motions in declinations µδ for 807 stars. Part of observing programmes, carried out during the last century for the purpose of studying the Earth's rotation, were realized by using PZT instruments. These observations were performed within in the intervals (tens of years much longer than that of the Hipparcos mission (less than 4 years. In addition, the annual number of observations for every PZT programme star is several hundreds on the average. Though the accuracy of the star coordinates in the Hipparcos Catalogue is by two orders of magnitude better than that of the star coordinates from the PZT observations, the large number of observations performed a much longer time interval makes it possible to correct the Hipparcos proper motions and to improve their accuracy with respect to the accuracy given in the Hipparcos Catalogue. Long term examinations of latitude and time variations were used to form the Earth Orientation Catalogue (EOC-2, aimed at a more accurate determination of positions and proper motions for the stars included. Our method of calculating the corrections of the proper motions in declination from the latitude variations is different from the method used in obtaining the EOC-2 Catalogue. Comparing the results we have established a good agreement between our µδ and the EOC-2 ones for the star sample used in the present paper.

Corrections to the Hipparcos Proper Motions in Declination for 807 Stars

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Damljanović, G.

2008-12-01

Full Text Available We used the data on latitude variations obtained from observations with 10 classical photographic zenith tubes (PZT in order to improve the Hipparcos proper motions in declinations $mu_{delta} $ for 807 stars. Part of observing programmes, carried out during the last century for the purpose of studying the Earth's rotation, were realized by using PZT instruments. These observations were performed within in the intervals (tens of years much longer than that of the Hipparcos mission (less than 4 years. In addition, the annual number of observations for every PZT-programme star is several hundreds on the average. Though the accuracy of the star coordinates in the Hipparcos Catalogue is by two orders of magnitude better than that of the star coordinates from the PZT observations, the large number of observations performed a much longer time interval makes it possible to correct the Hipparcos proper motions and to improve their accuracy with respect to the accuracy given in the Hipparcos Catalogue. Long term examinations of latitude and time variations were used to form the Earth Orientation Catalogue (EOC-2, aimed at a more accurate determination of positions and proper motions for the stars included. Our method of calculating the corrections of the proper motions in declination from the latitude variations is different from the method used in obtaining the EOC-2 Catalogue. Comparing the results we have established a good agreement between our $mu_ {delta} $ and the EOC-2 ones for the star sample used in the present paper.

MEASURING THE UNDETECTABLE: PROPER MOTIONS AND PARALLAXES OF VERY FAINT SOURCES

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lang, Dustin; Hogg, David W.; Jester, Sebastian; Rix, Hans-Walter

2009-01-01

The near future of astrophysics involves many large solid-angle, multi-epoch, multiband imaging surveys. These surveys will, at their faint limits, have data on a large number of sources that are too faint to be detected at any individual epoch. Here, we show that it is possible to measure in multi-epoch data not only the fluxes and positions, but also the parallaxes and proper motions of sources that are too faint to be detected at any individual epoch. The method involves fitting a model of a moving point source simultaneously to all imaging, taking account of the noise and point-spread function (PSF) in each image. By this method it is possible to measure the proper motion of a point source with an uncertainty close to the minimum possible uncertainty given the information in the data, which is limited by the PSF, the distribution of observation times (epochs), and the total signal-to-noise in the combined data. We demonstrate our technique on multi-epoch Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) imaging of the SDSS Southern Stripe (SDSSSS). We show that with our new technique we can use proper motions to distinguish very red brown dwarfs from very high-redshift quasars in these SDSS data, for objects that are inaccessible to traditional techniques, and with better fidelity than by multiband imaging alone. We rediscover all 10 known brown dwarfs in our sample and present nine new candidate brown dwarfs, identified on the basis of significant proper motion.

Dealing with phenomenological uncertainty in risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Theofanous, T.G.

1994-01-01

The Risk-Oriented Accident Analysis Methodology (ROAAM) is summarized and developed further towards a formal definition. The key ideas behind the methodology and these more formal aspects are also presented and discussed

Risk and safety analysis of nuclear systems

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Lee, John C; McCormick, Norman J

2011-01-01

.... The first half of the book covers the principles of risk analysis, the techniques used to develop and update a reliability data base, the reliability of multi-component systems, Markov methods used...

Possible Relativistic Definitions of Parallax, Proper Motion and Radial Velocity

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Klioner, S

2000-01-01

.... In this paper, the authors briefly describe a relativistic model of space-based optical positional observations valid at a high level of accuracy, and suggest definitions of parallax, proper motion...

Department of Defense Energy and Logistics: Implications of Historic and Future Cost, Risk, and Capability Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Tisa, Paul C.

Every year the DoD spends billions satisfying its large petroleum demand. This spending is highly sensitive to uncontrollable and poorly understood market forces. Additionally, while some stakeholders may not prioritize its monetary cost and risk, energy is fundamentally coupled to other critical factors. Energy, operational capability, and logistics are heavily intertwined and dependent on uncertain security environment and technology futures. These components and their relationships are less understood. Without better characterization, future capabilities may be significantly limited by present-day acquisition decisions. One attempt to demonstrate these costs and risks to decision makers has been through a metric known as the Fully Burdened Cost of Energy (FBCE). FBCE is defined as the commodity price for fuel plus many of these hidden costs. The metric encouraged a valuable conversation and is still required by law. However, most FBCE development stopped before the lessons from that conversation were incorporated. Current implementation is easy to employ but creates little value. Properly characterizing the costs and risks of energy and putting them in a useful tradespace requires a new framework. This research aims to highlight energy's complex role in many aspects of military operations, the critical need to incorporate it in decisions, and a novel framework to do so. It is broken into five parts. The first describes the motivation behind FBCE, the limits of current implementation, and outlines a new framework that aids decisions. Respectively, the second, third, and fourth present a historic analysis of the connections between military capabilities and energy, analyze the recent evolution of this conversation within the DoD, and pull the historic analysis into a revised framework. The final part quantifies the potential impacts of deeply uncertain futures and technological development and introduces an expanded framework that brings capability, energy, and

Activity and Kinematics of White Dwarf-M Dwarf Binaries from the SUPERBLINK Proper Motion Survey

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Skinner, Julie N.; Morgan, Dylan P.; West, Andrew A.; Lépine, Sébastien; Thorstensen, John R.

2017-01-01

We present an activity and kinematic analysis of high proper motion white dwarf-M dwarf binaries (WD+dMs) found in the SUPERBLINK survey, 178 of which are new identifications. To identify WD+dMs, we developed a UV–optical–IR color criterion and conducted a spectroscopic survey to confirm each candidate binary. For the newly identified systems, we fit the two components using model white dwarf spectra and M dwarf template spectra to determine physical parameters. We use H α chromospheric emission to examine the magnetic activity of the M dwarf in each system, and investigate how its activity is affected by the presence of a white dwarf companion. We find that the fraction of WD+dM binaries with active M dwarfs is significantly higher than their single M dwarf counterparts at early and mid-spectral types. We corroborate previous studies that find high activity fractions at both close and intermediate separations. At more distant separations, the binary fraction appears to approach the activity fraction for single M dwarfs. Using derived radial velocities and the proper motions, we calculate 3D space velocities for the WD+dMs in SUPERBLINK. For the entire SUPERBLINK WD+dMs, we find a large vertical velocity dispersion, indicating a dynamically hotter population compared to high proper motion samples of single M dwarfs. We compare the kinematics for systems with active M dwarfs and those with inactive M dwarfs, and find signatures of asymmetric drift in the inactive sample, indicating that they are drawn from an older population.

Activity and Kinematics of White Dwarf-M Dwarf Binaries from the SUPERBLINK Proper Motion Survey

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Skinner, Julie N. [Institute for Astrophysical Research, Boston University, 725 Commonwealth Avenue, Boston, MA 02215 (United States); Morgan, Dylan P.; West, Andrew A. [Department of Astronomy, Boston University, 725 Commonwealth Avenue, Boston, MA 02215 (United States); Lépine, Sébastien [Department of Physics and Astronomy, Georgia State University, 25 Park Place NE, Atlanta, GA, 30303 (United States); Thorstensen, John R., E-mail: jskinner@bu.edu [Department of Physics and Astronomy, 6127 Wilder Laboratory, Dartmouth College, Hanover, NH 03755 (United States)

2017-09-01

We present an activity and kinematic analysis of high proper motion white dwarf-M dwarf binaries (WD+dMs) found in the SUPERBLINK survey, 178 of which are new identifications. To identify WD+dMs, we developed a UV–optical–IR color criterion and conducted a spectroscopic survey to confirm each candidate binary. For the newly identified systems, we fit the two components using model white dwarf spectra and M dwarf template spectra to determine physical parameters. We use H α chromospheric emission to examine the magnetic activity of the M dwarf in each system, and investigate how its activity is affected by the presence of a white dwarf companion. We find that the fraction of WD+dM binaries with active M dwarfs is significantly higher than their single M dwarf counterparts at early and mid-spectral types. We corroborate previous studies that find high activity fractions at both close and intermediate separations. At more distant separations, the binary fraction appears to approach the activity fraction for single M dwarfs. Using derived radial velocities and the proper motions, we calculate 3D space velocities for the WD+dMs in SUPERBLINK. For the entire SUPERBLINK WD+dMs, we find a large vertical velocity dispersion, indicating a dynamically hotter population compared to high proper motion samples of single M dwarfs. We compare the kinematics for systems with active M dwarfs and those with inactive M dwarfs, and find signatures of asymmetric drift in the inactive sample, indicating that they are drawn from an older population.

Risk of Malnutrition and Pressure Ulcer in a mixed hospital population. Nutritional risk screening predicting pressure ulcer.

OpenAIRE

Alhaug, Johanne

2016-01-01

Abstract Background and aim Malnutrition and pressure ulcer represent significant health problems for hospital inpatients, in addition to having a considerable impact on local and national health care cost. Sufficient nutritional status is crucial for proper wound healing, and malnutrition is a prominent risk factor for pressure ulcer development. Risk of malnutrition can be identified using standardized screening tools, such as the Nutritional Risk Screening (NRS) 2002. The objective of this...

FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE AND THE BUSINESS RISK IN AGRICULTURAL SECTOR OF ROMANIA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

BURJA VASILE

2017-06-01

Full Text Available The business risk is a permanent presence in the activities carried out by the companies. The financial decisions are often based on a compromise between risk and returns. To optimise the management of the companies, it is important to know the factors that generate risk and have a certain influence on the performance. This study has as main objective the explanation of the relationship between the financial performance and the factors that can be found within the microeconomic environment of the companies and determine the risk occurrence. The research is conducted on Romanian agricultural holdings from the vegetable sector, taking into account the period 2009-2014. The research methodology is based on econometric modelling. The results of regression analysis indicate that the farm performance is largely influenced by various business risk factors, of which the most important are the financing structure (financial risk and sales effectiveness (commercial risk. The findings helped us knowing the risk generating factors in the agricultural holdings activity, to find solutions for a proper management that leads to increased performance.

Approach for seismic risk analysis for CANDU plants in Korea

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lee, B-S; Kim, T; Kang, S-K [Korea Power Engineering Co., Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Hong, S-Y; Roh, S-R [Korea Electric Power Corp., Taejon (Korea, Republic of). Research Centre

1996-12-31

A seismic risk analysis for CANDU type plants has never been performed. The study presented here suggested that the approach generally applied to LWR type plants could lead to unacceptable result, if directly applied to CANDU plants. This paper presents a modified approach for the seismic risk analysis of CANDU plants. (author). 5 refs., 2 tabs., 2 figs.

LANDSAFE: LANDING SITE RISK ANALYSIS SOFTWARE FRAMEWORK

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

R. Schmidt

2012-08-01

Full Text Available The European Space Agency (ESA is planning a Lunar Lander mission in the 2018 timeframe that will demonstrate precise soft landing at the polar regions of the Moon. To ensure a safe and successful landing a careful risk analysis has to be carried out. This is comprised of identifying favorable target areas and evaluating the surface conditions in these areas. Features like craters, boulders, steep slopes, rough surfaces and shadow areas have to be identified in order to assess the risk associated to a landing site in terms of a successful touchdown and subsequent surface operation of the lander. In addition, global illumination conditions at the landing site have to be simulated and analyzed. The Landing Site Risk Analysis software framework (LandSAfe is a system for the analysis, selection and certification of safe landing sites on the lunar surface. LandSAfe generates several data products including high resolution digital terrain models (DTMs, hazard maps, illumination maps, temperature maps and surface reflectance maps which assist the user in evaluating potential landing site candidates. This paper presents the LandSAfe system and describes the methods and products of the different modules. For one candidate landing site on the rim of Shackleton crater at the south pole of the Moon a high resolution DTM is showcased.

Risk analysis of analytical validations by probabilistic modification of FMEA

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Barends, D.M.; Oldenhof, M.T.; Vredenbregt, M.J.

2012-01-01

Risk analysis is a valuable addition to validation of an analytical chemistry process, enabling not only detecting technical risks, but also risks related to human failures. Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) can be applied, using a categorical risk scoring of the occurrence, detection...... and severity of failure modes, and calculating the Risk Priority Number (RPN) to select failure modes for correction. We propose a probabilistic modification of FMEA, replacing the categorical scoring of occurrence and detection by their estimated relative frequency and maintaining the categorical scoring...... of severity. In an example, the results of traditional FMEA of a Near Infrared (NIR) analytical procedure used for the screening of suspected counterfeited tablets are re-interpretated by this probabilistic modification of FMEA. Using this probabilistic modification of FMEA, the frequency of occurrence...

A Benefit-Risk Analysis Approach to Capture Regulatory Decision-Making: Multiple Myeloma.

Science.gov (United States)

Raju, G K; Gurumurthi, Karthik; Domike, Reuben; Kazandjian, Dickran; Landgren, Ola; Blumenthal, Gideon M; Farrell, Ann; Pazdur, Richard; Woodcock, Janet

2018-01-01

Drug regulators around the world make decisions about drug approvability based on qualitative benefit-risk analysis. In this work, a quantitative benefit-risk analysis approach captures regulatory decision-making about new drugs to treat multiple myeloma (MM). MM assessments have been based on endpoints such as time to progression (TTP), progression-free survival (PFS), and objective response rate (ORR) which are different than benefit-risk analysis based on overall survival (OS). Twenty-three FDA decisions on MM drugs submitted to FDA between 2003 and 2016 were identified and analyzed. The benefits and risks were quantified relative to comparators (typically the control arm of the clinical trial) to estimate whether the median benefit-risk was positive or negative. A sensitivity analysis was demonstrated using ixazomib to explore the magnitude of uncertainty. FDA approval decision outcomes were consistent and logical using this benefit-risk framework. © 2017 American Society for Clinical Pharmacology and Therapeutics.

Hierarchic Analysis Method to Evaluate Rock Burst Risk

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ming Ji

2015-01-01

Full Text Available In order to reasonably evaluate the risk of rock bursts in mines, the factors impacting rock bursts and the existing grading criterion on the risk of rock bursts were studied. By building a model of hierarchic analysis method, the natural factors, technology factors, and management factors that influence rock bursts were analyzed and researched, which determined the degree of each factor’s influence (i.e., weight and comprehensive index. Then the grade of rock burst risk was assessed. The results showed that the assessment level generated by the model accurately reflected the actual risk degree of rock bursts in mines. The model improved the maneuverability and practicability of existing evaluation criteria and also enhanced the accuracy and science of rock burst risk assessment.

Analysis of labour risks in the Spanish industrial aerospace sector

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

JUAN LAGUARDIA

Full Text Available ABSTRACT Labour risk prevention is an activity integrated within Safety and Hygiene at Work in Spain. In 2003, the Electronic Declaration for Accidents at Work, Delt@ (DELTA was introduced. The industrial aerospace sector is subject to various risks. Our objective is to analyse the Spanish Industrial Aerospace Sector (SIAS using the ACSOM methodology to assess its labour risks and to prioritise preventive actions. The SIAS and the Services Subsector (SS were created and the relevant accident rate data were obtained. The ACSOM method was applied through double contrast (deviation and translocation of the SIAS or SS risk polygon with the considered pattern, accidents from all sectors (ACSOM G or the SIAS. A list of risks was obtained, ordered by action phases. In the SIAS vs. ACSOM G analysis, radiation risks were the worst, followed by overstrains. Accidents caused by living beings were also significant in the SS vs. SIAE, which will be able to be used to improve Risk Prevention. Radiation is the most significant risk in the SIAS and the SS. Preventive actions will be primary and secondary. ACSOM has shown itself to be a valid tool for the analysis of labour risks.

Analysis of labour risks in the Spanish industrial aerospace sector.

Science.gov (United States)

Laguardia, Juan; Rubio, Emilio; Garcia, Ana; Garcia-Foncillas, Rafael

2016-01-01

Labour risk prevention is an activity integrated within Safety and Hygiene at Work in Spain. In 2003, the Electronic Declaration for Accidents at Work, Delt@ (DELTA) was introduced. The industrial aerospace sector is subject to various risks. Our objective is to analyse the Spanish Industrial Aerospace Sector (SIAS) using the ACSOM methodology to assess its labour risks and to prioritise preventive actions. The SIAS and the Services Subsector (SS) were created and the relevant accident rate data were obtained. The ACSOM method was applied through double contrast (deviation and translocation) of the SIAS or SS risk polygon with the considered pattern, accidents from all sectors (ACSOM G) or the SIAS. A list of risks was obtained, ordered by action phases. In the SIAS vs. ACSOM G analysis, radiation risks were the worst, followed by overstrains. Accidents caused by living beings were also significant in the SS vs. SIAE, which will be able to be used to improve Risk Prevention. Radiation is the most significant risk in the SIAS and the SS. Preventive actions will be primary and secondary. ACSOM has shown itself to be a valid tool for the analysis of labour risks.

A Roadmap of Risk Diagnostic Methods: Developing an Integrated View of Risk Identification and Analysis Techniques

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Williams, Ray; Ambrose, Kate; Bentrem, Laura

2004-01-01

...), which is envisioned to be a comprehensive reference tool for risk identification and analysis (RI AND A) techniques. Program Managers (PMs) responsible for developing or acquiring software-intensive systems typically identify risks in different ways...