WorldWideScience

Sample records for analysis mesa decision

  1. Overview of the Multiscale Epidemiologic/Economic Simulation and Analysis (MESA) Decision Support System

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Speck, D E

    2008-04-28

    The Multiscale Epidemiologic/Economic Simulation and Analysis (MESA) Decision Support System (DSS) is the product of investments that began in FY05 by the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Science and Technology Directorate and continue today with joint funding by both DHS and the US Department of Agriculture (USDA). The DSS consists of a coupled epidemiologic/economic model, a standalone graphical user interface (GUI) that supports both model setup and post-analysis, and a Scenario Bank archive to store all content related to foreign animal disease (FAD) studies. The MESA epi model is an object-oriented, agent-based, stochastic, spatio-temporal simulator that parametrically models FAD outbreaks and response strategies from initial disease introduction to conclusion over local, regional, and national scales. Through its output database, the epi model couples to an economic model that calculates farm-level impacts from animal infections, responsive control strategies and loss of trade. The MESA architecture contains a variety of internal models that implement the major components of the epi simulation, including disease introduction, intra-herd spread, inter-herd spread (direct and indirect), detection, and various control strategies (movement restrictions, culling, vaccination) in a highly configurable and extensible fashion. MESA development was originally focused to support investigations into the economic and agricultural industry impacts associated with Foot-and-Mouth Disease (FMD outbreaks). However, it has been adapted to other FADs such has Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI), Classical Swine Fever (CSF) and Exotic Newcastle Disease (END). The MESA model is highly parameterized and employs an extensible architecture that permits straightforward addition of new component models (e.g., alternative disease spread approaches) when necessary. Since its inception, MESA has been developed with a requirement to enable simulation of the very large scale

  2. Marine Ecosystems Analysis (MESA) Program, New York Bight Surficial Sediment Analyses

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Marine Ecosystems Analysis (MESA) Program, New York Bight Study was funded by NOAA and the Bureau of Land Management (BLM). The Atlas was a historical...

  3. Decision analysis multicriteria analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The ALARA procedure covers a wide range of decisions from the simplest to the most complex one. For the simplest one the engineering judgement is generally enough and the use of a decision aiding technique is therefore not necessary. For some decisions the comparison of the available protection option may be performed from two or a few criteria (or attributes) (protection cost, collective dose,...) and the use of rather simple decision aiding techniques, like the Cost Effectiveness Analysis or the Cost Benefit Analysis, is quite enough. For the more complex decisions, involving numerous criteria or for decisions involving large uncertainties or qualitative judgement the use of these techniques, even the extended cost benefit analysis, is not recommended and appropriate techniques like multi-attribute decision aiding techniques are more relevant. There is a lot of such particular techniques and it is not possible to present all of them. Therefore only two broad categories of multi-attribute decision aiding techniques will be presented here: decision analysis and the outranking analysis

  4. Analysis of Well ER-EC-5 Testing, Western Pahute Mesa-Oasis Valley FY 2000 Testing Program

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2002-09-30

    This report documents the analysis of the data collected for Well ER-EC-5 during the Western Pahute Mesa - Oasis Valley (WPM-OV) well development and testing program that was conducted during fiscal year (FY) 2000. The data collection for that program is documented in Appendix A, Western Pahute Mesa - Oasis Valley, Well ER-EC-5 Data Report for Development and Hydraulic Testing.

  5. Analysis of Well ER-EC-6 Testing, Western Pahute Mesa - Oasis Valley FY 2000 Testing Program

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2002-09-30

    This report documents the analysis of the data collected for Well ER-EC-6 during the Western Pahute Mesa-Oasis Valley (WPM-OV) well development and testing program that was conducted during fiscal year (FY) 2000. The data collection for that program is documented in Appendix A, Western Pahute Mesa-Oasis Valley, Well ER-EC-6 Data Report for Development and Hydraulic Testing.

  6. Analysis of Well ER-EC-7 Testing, Western Pahute Mesa - Oasis Valley FY 2000 Testing Program

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2002-09-30

    This report documents the analysis of the data collected for Well ER-EC-7 during the Western Pahute Mesa - Oasis Valley (WPM-OV) well development and testing program that was conducted during fiscal year (FY) 2000. The data collection for that program was documented in Appendix A, Western Pahute Mesa - Oasis Valley, Well ER-EC-7 Data Report for Development and Hydraulic Testing.

  7. Analysis of Well ER-EC-4 Testing, Western Pahute Mesa-Oasis Valley FY 2000 Testing Program

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2002-09-30

    This report documents the analysis of the data collected for Well ER-EC-4 during the Western Pahute Mesa-Oasis Valley (WPM-OV) well development and testing program that was conducted during fiscal year (FY) 2000. The data collection for that program is documented in Appendix A, Western Pahute Mesa - Oasis Valley, Well ER-EC-4 Data Report for Development and Hydraulic Testing.

  8. Analysis of Well ER-EC-2a Testing, Western Pahute Mesa-Oasis Valley FY 2000 Testing Program

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2002-09-30

    This report documents the analysis of the data collected for Well ER-EC-2a during the Western Pahute Mesa - Oasis Valley (WPM-OV) well development and testing program that was conducted during fiscal year (FY) 2000. The data collection for that program is documented in Appendix A, Western Pahute Mesa - Oasis Valley, Well ER-EC-2a Data Report for Development and Hydraulic Testing.

  9. Analysis of Well ER-EC-1 Testing, Western Pahute Mesa-Oasis Valley FY 2000 Testing Program

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2002-09-30

    This report documents the analysis of the data collected for Well ER-EC-1 during the Western Pahute Mesa - Oasis Valley (WPM-OV) well development and testing program that was conducted during fiscal year (FY) 2000. The data collection for that program is documented in Appendix A, Western Pahute Mesa - Oasis Valley, Well ER-EC-1 Data Report for Development and Hydraulic Testing.

  10. Alara and decision analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In applying ALARA somebody has to determine what is reasonable. A decision has to be made. Decision Analysis is a procedure for structuring decision problems, and therefore it might be expected to be of use in the application of the ALARA principle. This paper explores the contribution that Decision Analysis may make in this context, particularly discussing the application of multi-attribute value theory. An example of using the theory on a problem of radioactive waste disposal is given, and the potential of an increased use of Decision Analysis in making the ALARA principle work, is discussed

  11. MISSE-7 MESA Miniaturized Electrostatic Analyzer - Ion Spectra Analysis Preliminary Results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Enloe, C. L.; Balthazor, R. L.; McHarg, M. G.; Clark, A. L.; Waite, D.; Wallerstein, A. J.; Wilson, K. A.

    2011-12-01

    The 7th Materials on the International Space Station Experiment (MISSE-7) was launched in November 2009 and retrieved on STS-134 in April 2011. One of the onboard experiments, the Miniaturized Electrostatic Analyzer (MESA), is a small low-cost low-size/weight/power ion and electron spectrometer that was pointed into ram during the majority of the time onboard. Over 800 Mb of data has been obtained by taking spectra every three minutes on-orbit. The data has been analyzed with a novel "parameterizing the parameters" method suitable for on-orbit data analysis using low-cost microcontrollers. Preliminary results are shown.

  12. Analysis of tracer responses in the BULLION Forced-Gradient Experiment at Pahute Mesa, Nevada

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This report presents an analysis of the tracer data from the BULLION forced-gradient experiment (FGE) conducted on Pahute Mesa at the Nevada Test Site from June 2, 1997 through August 28, 1997, for the Underground Test Area (UGTA) Program. It also serves to document the polystyrene microsphere data from the FGE. The FGE involved the injection of solute and colloid tracers into wells ER-20-6 No. 1 and ER-20-6 No. 2 while ER-20-6 No. 3 was pumped at approximately 116 gallons per minute (gpm). The experimental configuration and test design are described briefly in this report; more details are provided elsewhere (IT, 1996, 1997, 1998). The tracer responses in the various wells yielded valuable information about transport processes such as longitudinal dispersion, matrix diffusion and colloid transport in the hydrogeologic system in the vicinity of the BULLION nuclear test cavity. Parameter values describing these processes are derived from the semi-analytical model interpretations presented in this report. A companion report (IT, 1998) presents more detailed numerical modeling interpretations of the solute tracer responses

  13. Analysis of tracer responses in the BULLION Forced-Gradient Experiment at Pahute Mesa, Nevada

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Paul W. Reimus; Marc J. Haga

    1999-10-01

    This report presents an analysis of the tracer data from the BULLION forced-gradient experiment (FGE) conducted on Pahute Mesa at the Nevada Test Site from June 2, 1997 through August 28, 1997, for the Underground Test Area (UGTA) Program. It also serves to document the polystyrene microsphere data from the FGE. The FGE involved the injection of solute and colloid tracers into wells ER-20-6 No. 1 and ER-20-6 No. 2 while ER-20-6 No. 3 was pumped at approximately 116 gallons per minute (gpm). The experimental configuration and test design are described briefly in this report; more details are provided elsewhere (IT, 1996, 1997, 1998). The tracer responses in the various wells yielded valuable information about transport processes such as longitudinal dispersion, matrix diffusion and colloid transport in the hydrogeologic system in the vicinity of the BULLION nuclear test cavity. Parameter values describing these processes are derived from the semi-analytical model interpretations presented in this report. A companion report (IT, 1998) presents more detailed numerical modeling interpretations of the solute tracer responses.

  14. Mesa redonda

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roberto Lira Olmo

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available En relación al tema central del presente número de la Revista Urbano, la "Identidad Urbana", el Comité Editorial de la misma estimó en su oportunidad de gran interés reunir en una Mesa Redonda a destacados intelectuales, académicos y profesionales que, de una u otra forma, están vinculados por su trabajo, investigación e inquietudes personales con este apasionante tema del cual existen tantas y tan variadas concepciones.

  15. Mesa antivibraciones

    OpenAIRE

    Moreno Vidorreta, Iván

    2010-01-01

    El objeto de este proyecto es el diseño y la construcción de una mesa antivibraciones. Las vibraciones (ruido) provienen de la tierra o de vibraciones sísmicas y existen en todos los ambientes del mundo. Este ruido tiene varias fuentes: las olas rompiendo en las costas costeras, la rutina constante de las placas tectónicas, el viento sopla los árboles y edificios, de las fuentes artificiales, como maquinaria, sistemas de climatización, el tráfico de la calle e incluso la ...

  16. Evolutionary Analysis of Gaseous Sub-Neptune-Mass Planets with MESA

    CERN Document Server

    Chen, Howard

    2016-01-01

    Sub-Neptune-sized exoplanets represent one of the most common types of planets in the Milky Way, yet many of their properties are unknown. Here, we present a prescription to adapt the capabilities of the stellar evolution toolkit Modules for Experiments in Stellar Astrophysics (MESA) to model sub-Neptune mass planets with H/He envelopes. With the addition of routines treating the planet core luminosity, heavy element enrichment, atmospheric boundary condition, and mass loss due to hydrodynamic winds, the evolutionary pathways of planets with diverse starting conditions are more accurately constrained. Using these dynamical models, we construct mass-composition relationships of planets from 1 to 400 $M_{\\oplus}$ and investigate how mass-loss impacts their composition and evolution history. We demonstrate that planet radii are typically insensitive to the evolution pathway that brought the planet to its instantaneous mass, composition and age, with variations from hysteresis. We find that planet envelope mass l...

  17. Decision Analysis and Expert Systems

    OpenAIRE

    Henrion, Max; Breese, John S.; Horvitz, Eric J.

    1991-01-01

    Decision analysis and expert systems are technologies intended to support human reasoning and decision making by formalizing expert knowledge so that it is amenable to mechanized reasoning methods. Despite some common goals, these two paradigms have evolved divergently, with fundamental differences in principle and practice. Recent recognition of the deficiencies of traditional AI techniques for treating uncertainty, coupled with the development of belief nets and influence diagrams, is stimu...

  18. Value of information analysis for Corrective Action Unit Nos. 101 and 102: Central and western Pahute Mesa, Nevada Test Site, Nevada

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The purpose of this report is to describe the basis for and present the results of a value of information analysis (VOIA) for the Pahute Mesa underground test area of the Nevada Test Site (NTS), one of several areas of the Nevada Test Site used for underground nuclear testing in the past. The value of information analysis was used to evaluate and compare potential characterization options at the Pahute Mesa underground test area for site remediation purposes. Thirty six characterization options were evaluated, ranging from a single, inexpensive study using existing data and intended to address a single question or uncertainty, to a forty-million-dollar suite of activities designed to collect and analyze new information to address multiple uncertainties. The characterization options were compared and ranked based on how effective the experts though the information collection would be in reducing uncertainties, how this effected the distance to contaminant boundary, and the cost of the option

  19. Anniversary Article: Decision Analysis in Management Science

    OpenAIRE

    Smith, James E; Detlof von Winterfeldt

    2004-01-01

    As part of the 50th anniversary of Management Science, the journal is publishing articles that reflect on the past, present, and future of the various subfields the journal represents. In this article, we consider decision analysis research as it has appeared in Management Science. After reviewing the foundations of decision analysis and the history of the journal's decision analysis department, we review a number of key developments in decision analysis research that have appeared in Managem...

  20. Decision analysis with approximate probabilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whalen, Thomas

    1992-01-01

    This paper concerns decisions under uncertainty in which the probabilities of the states of nature are only approximately known. Decision problems involving three states of nature are studied. This is due to the fact that some key issues do not arise in two-state problems, while probability spaces with more than three states of nature are essentially impossible to graph. The primary focus is on two levels of probabilistic information. In one level, the three probabilities are separately rounded to the nearest tenth. This can lead to sets of rounded probabilities which add up to 0.9, 1.0, or 1.1. In the other level, probabilities are rounded to the nearest tenth in such a way that the rounded probabilities are forced to sum to 1.0. For comparison, six additional levels of probabilistic information, previously analyzed, were also included in the present analysis. A simulation experiment compared four criteria for decisionmaking using linearly constrained probabilities (Maximin, Midpoint, Standard Laplace, and Extended Laplace) under the eight different levels of information about probability. The Extended Laplace criterion, which uses a second order maximum entropy principle, performed best overall.

  1. Analysis of 2009 International Energy Conservation Code Requirements for Residential Buildings in Mesa, Arizona

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lucas, Robert G.

    2011-03-31

    The 2009 International Energy Conservation Code (IECC) contains several major improvements in energy efficiency over the 2006 IECC and the 2003 IECC. The notable changes are: (1) Improved duct sealing verified by testing the duct system; (2) Increased duct insulation; (3) Improvement of window U-factors from 0.40 to 0.35; and (4) Efficient lighting requirements. An analysis of these changes resulted in estimated annual energy cost savings of $145 a year for an average new house compared to the 2003 IECC. This energy cost saving decreases to $125 a year for the 2009 IECC compared to the 2006 IECC. Construction cost increases (per home) for complying with the 2009 IECC are estimated at $1256 relative to the 2003 IECC and $800 for 2006 IECC. Home owners will experience an annual cost savings of about $80 a year by complying with the 2009 IECC because reduction to energy bills will more than compensate for increased mortgage payments and other costs.

  2. Decision strategy research: system analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carle, B

    2000-07-01

    The objective of SCK-CEN's R and D programme on decision strategies is (1) to develop theories, methods and software tools which help decision makers shape, analyse and understand their decisions; (2) to study group processes in decision making; (3) to apply theories, methods and tools in a context related to nuclear emergency preparedness and more generally to support in a context dealing with ionising radiation; (4) to increase SCK-CEN's knowledge on general emergency preparedness and to introduce SCK-CEN staff to computer supported decision techniques. Ongoing R and D has two components: (1) the study of the use of information and knowledge transfer in group decision processes, and more specific studying important factors when computers are used as information source and communication tool; and (2) the study of preference modelling individually and during group decision processes. Principal achievements in 1999 are described.

  3. Decision strategy research: system analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The objective of SCK-CEN's R and D programme on decision strategies is (1) to develop theories, methods and software tools which help decision makers shape, analyse and understand their decisions; (2) to study group processes in decision making; (3) to apply theories, methods and tools in a context related to nuclear emergency preparedness and more generally to support in a context dealing with ionising radiation; (4) to increase SCK-CEN's knowledge on general emergency preparedness and to introduce SCK-CEN staff to computer supported decision techniques. Ongoing R and D has two components: (1) the study of the use of information and knowledge transfer in group decision processes, and more specific studying important factors when computers are used as information source and communication tool; and (2) the study of preference modelling individually and during group decision processes. Principal achievements in 1999 are described

  4. Decision analysis and bioequivalence trials

    OpenAIRE

    Lindley, Dennis V.

    1998-01-01

    It is argued that the determination of bioequivalence involves a decision, and is not purely a problem of inference. A coherent method of decision-making is examined in detail for a simple trial of bioequivalence. The result is shown to differ seriously from the inferential method, using significance tests, ordinarily used. The reason for the difference is explored. It is shown how the decision-analytic method can be used in more complicated and realistic trials and the case...

  5. TYBO/BENHAM: Model Analysis of Groundwater Flow and Radionuclide Migration from Underground Nuclear Tests in Southwestern Pahute Mesa, Nevada

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Andrew Wolfsberg; Lee Glascoe; Guoping Lu; Alyssa Olson; Peter Lichtner; Maureen McGraw; Terry Cherry; Guy Roemer

    2002-09-01

    Recent field studies have led to the discovery of trace quantities of plutonium originating from the BENHAM underground nuclear test in two groundwater observation wells on Pahute Mesa at the Nevada Test Site. These observation wells are located 1.3 km from the BENHAM underground nuclear test and approximately 300 m from the TYBO underground nuclear test. In addition to plutonium, several other conservative (e.g. tritium) and reactive (e.g. cesium) radionuclides were found in both observation wells. The highest radionuclide concentrations were found in a well sampling a welded tuff aquifer more than 500m above the BENHAM emplacement depth. These measurements have prompted additional investigations to ascertain the mechanisms, processes, and conditions affecting subsurface radionuclide transport in Pahute Mesa groundwater. This report describes an integrated modeling approach used to simulate groundwater flow, radionuclide source release, and radionuclide transport near the BENHAM and TYBO underground nuclear tests on Pahute Mesa. The components of the model include a flow model at a scale large enough to encompass many wells for calibration, a source-term model capable of predicting radionuclide releases to aquifers following complex processes associated with nonisothermal flow and glass dissolution, and site-scale transport models that consider migration of solutes and colloids in fractured volcanic rock. Although multiple modeling components contribute to the methodology presented in this report, they are coupled and yield results consistent with laboratory and field observations. Additionally, sensitivity analyses are conducted to provide insight into the relative importance of uncertainty ranges in the transport parameters.

  6. Probabilistic Analysis in Management Decision Making

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Delmar, M. V.; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    1992-01-01

    The target group in this paper is people concerned with mathematical economic decision theory. It is shown how the numerically effective First Order Reliability Methods (FORM) can be used in rational management decision making, where some parameters in the applied decision basis are uncertainty...... quantities. The uncertainties are taken into account consistently and the decision analysis is based on the general decision theory in combination with reliability and optimization theory. Examples are shown where the described technique is used and some general conclusion are stated....

  7. Understanding The Decision Context: DPSIR, Decision Landscape, And Social Network Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Establishing the decision context for a management problem is the critical first step for effective decision analysis. Understanding the decision context allow stakeholders and decision-makers to integrate the societal, environmental, and economic considerations that must be con...

  8. Decision analysis for deteriorating structures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Measures that improve durability of a structure usually increase its initial cost. Thus, in order to make a decision about a cost-effective solution the life-cycle cost of a structure including cost of structural failure needs to be considered. Due to uncertainties associated with structural properties, loads and environmental conditions the cost of structural failure is a random variable. The paper derives probability distributions of the cost of failure of a single structure and a group of identical structures when single or multiple failures are possible during the service life of a structure. The probability distributions are based on cumulative probabilities of failure of a single structure over its service life. It is assumed that failures occur at discrete points in time, the cost of failure set at the time of decision making remains constant for a particular design solution and the discount rate is a deterministic parameter not changing with time. The probability distributions can be employed to evaluate the expected life-cycle cost or the expected utility, which is then used in decision making. An example, which considers the selection of durability specifications for a reinforced concrete structure built on the coast, illustrates the use of the derived probability distributions

  9. How decision analysis can further nanoinformatics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthew E. Bates

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available The increase in nanomaterial research has resulted in increased nanomaterial data. The next challenge is to meaningfully integrate and interpret these data for better and more efficient decisions. Due to the complex nature of nanomaterials, rapid changes in technology, and disunified testing and data publishing strategies, information regarding material properties is often illusive, uncertain, and/or of varying quality, which limits the ability of researchers and regulatory agencies to process and use the data. The vision of nanoinformatics is to address this problem by identifying the information necessary to support specific decisions (a top-down approach and collecting and visualizing these relevant data (a bottom-up approach. Current nanoinformatics efforts, however, have yet to efficiently focus data acquisition efforts on the research most relevant for bridging specific nanomaterial data gaps. Collecting unnecessary data and visualizing irrelevant information are expensive activities that overwhelm decision makers. We propose that the decision analytic techniques of multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA, value of information (VOI, weight of evidence (WOE, and portfolio decision analysis (PDA can bridge the gap from current data collection and visualization efforts to present information relevant to specific decision needs. Decision analytic and Bayesian models could be a natural extension of mechanistic and statistical models for nanoinformatics practitioners to master in solving complex nanotechnology challenges.

  10. How decision analysis can further nanoinformatics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bates, Matthew E; Larkin, Sabrina; Keisler, Jeffrey M; Linkov, Igor

    2015-01-01

    The increase in nanomaterial research has resulted in increased nanomaterial data. The next challenge is to meaningfully integrate and interpret these data for better and more efficient decisions. Due to the complex nature of nanomaterials, rapid changes in technology, and disunified testing and data publishing strategies, information regarding material properties is often illusive, uncertain, and/or of varying quality, which limits the ability of researchers and regulatory agencies to process and use the data. The vision of nanoinformatics is to address this problem by identifying the information necessary to support specific decisions (a top-down approach) and collecting and visualizing these relevant data (a bottom-up approach). Current nanoinformatics efforts, however, have yet to efficiently focus data acquisition efforts on the research most relevant for bridging specific nanomaterial data gaps. Collecting unnecessary data and visualizing irrelevant information are expensive activities that overwhelm decision makers. We propose that the decision analytic techniques of multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA), value of information (VOI), weight of evidence (WOE), and portfolio decision analysis (PDA) can bridge the gap from current data collection and visualization efforts to present information relevant to specific decision needs. Decision analytic and Bayesian models could be a natural extension of mechanistic and statistical models for nanoinformatics practitioners to master in solving complex nanotechnology challenges. PMID:26425410

  11. Decision analysis applications and the CERCLA process

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Purucker, S.T.; Lyon, B.F. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States). Risk Analysis Section]|[Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States)

    1994-06-01

    Quantitative decision methods can be developed during environmental restoration projects that incorporate stakeholder input and can complement current efforts that are undertaken for data collection and alternatives evaluation during the CERCLA process. These decision-making tools can supplement current EPA guidance as well as focus on problems that arise as attempts are made to make informed decisions regarding remedial alternative selection. In examining the use of such applications, the authors discuss the use of decision analysis tools and their impact on collecting data and making environmental decisions from a risk-based perspective. They will look at the construction of objective functions for quantifying different risk-based perspective. They will look at the construction of objective functions for quantifying different risk-based decision rules that incorporate stakeholder concerns. This represents a quantitative method for implementing the Data Quality Objective (DQO) process. These objective functions can be expressed using a variety of indices to analyze problems that currently arise in the environmental field. Examples include cost, magnitude of risk, efficiency, and probability of success or failure. Based on such defined objective functions, a project can evaluate the impact of different risk and decision selection strategies on data worth and alternative selection.

  12. Financial Analysis, Budgeting, Decision and Control

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mariana Rodica TIRLEA

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The economic processes taking place in the economic environment are stochastic processes that involve and imply risks, arising from product diversification, competition, financial derivatives transactions: swaps, futures, options and from the large number of actors involved in the stock market with a higher or a smaller uncertainty degree. Competition and competitiveness, led to major and rapid change in the business environment, they determined actors participating in the economy to find solutions and methods of collecting and processing data, in such a way that, after being transformed into information they quickly help based on their analysis in decision making, planning and financial forecasting, having an effect on increasing their economic efficiency. In these circumstances the financial analysis, decision, forecasting and control, should be based on quality information that should be a value creation source. The active nature of the financial function implies the existence of a substantially large share of financial analysis, financial decision, forecasting and control.

  13. Using decision analysis in physical protection planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The physical protection planner is faced with a myriad of decisions to make in developing a security system that will meet desired goals. Goal oriented considerations such as threat definition, acts to be precluded, and corporate or public policy weigh heavily upon design decisions. Dealing with trade-offs between seemingly unrelated security components is a basic design challenge. Often there is no way to quantitatively deal with such factors in arriving at an optimum security design. Decision analysis techniques such as the Analytical Hierarchy Process offer the potential for structuring expert judgment in examining complex design problems such as these. The easily understood process allows the security planner to rank various approaches to a given security problem, while ensuring adequate attention to meeting overall protection goals. An example application is described, wherein various physical security system configurations are evaluated for an application where stated policy (in the form of defined threat statement) and site peculiarities are key decision factors

  14. Decision variables analysis for structured modeling

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    潘启树; 赫东波; 张洁; 胡运权

    2002-01-01

    Structured modeling is the most commonly used modeling method, but it is not quite addaptive to significant changes in environmental conditions. Therefore, Decision Variables Analysis(DVA), a new modelling method is proposed to deal with linear programming modeling and changing environments. In variant linear programming , the most complicated relationships are those among decision variables. DVA classifies the decision variables into different levels using different index sets, and divides a model into different elements so that any change can only have its effect on part of the whole model. DVA takes into consideration the complicated relationships among decision variables at different levels, and can therefore sucessfully solve any modeling problem in dramatically changing environments.

  15. Economic aspects of clinical decision making: applications of clinical decision analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crane, V S

    1988-03-01

    Clinical decision analysis as a basic tool for decision making is described, and potential applications of decision analysis in six areas of clinical practice are identified. Clinical decision analysis is a systematic method of describing clinical problems in a quantitative fashion, identifying possible courses of action, assessing the probability and value of outcomes, and then making a calculation to select the ultimate course of action. Clinical decision analysis provides a structure for clinical decision problems, helps clarify medical controversies, and encourages decision makers to speak a common language. Applications of clinical decision analysis in the areas of diagnostic testing, patient management, product and program selection, research and education, patient preferences, and health-care-policy evaluation are described. Decision analysis offers health professionals a tool for making quantifiable, cost-effective clinical decisions, especially in terms of clinical outcomes. PMID:3285672

  16. Strategic decision analysis applied to borehole seismology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Strategic Decision Analysis (SDA) is the evolving body of knowledge on how to achieve high quality in the decision that shapes an organization's future. SDA comprises philosophy, process concepts, methodology, and tools for making good decisions. It specifically incorporates many concepts and tools from economic evaluation and risk analysis. Chevron Petroleum Technology Company (CPTC) has applied SDA to evaluate and prioritize a number of its most important and most uncertain R and D projects, including borehole seismology. Before SDA, there were significant issues and concerns about the value to CPTC of continuing to work on borehole seismology. The SDA process created a cross-functional team of experts to structure and evaluate this project. A credible economic model was developed, discrete risks and continuous uncertainties were assessed, and an extensive sensitivity analysis was performed. The results, even applied to a very restricted drilling program for a few years, were good enough to demonstrate the value of continuing the project. This paper explains the SDA philosophy concepts, and process and demonstrates the methodology and tools using the borehole seismology project example. SDA is useful in the upstream industry not just in the R and D/technology decisions, but also in major exploration and production decisions. Since a major challenge for upstream companies today is to create and realize value, the SDA approach should have a very broad applicability

  17. Calidad de las aceitunas de mesa.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Garrido Fernández, Antonio

    1999-06-01

    Full Text Available The paper comments the different regulations related to table olives at national or international scales. The Unified Qualitative standard Applying to Table Olives in International Trade and COI/Codex (International Olive Oil Council, IOC, and IOC/Codex Alimentarius, «Reglamentación Técnico Sanitaria para la elaboración, circulación y venta de aceitunas de mesa» (Spanish, «Normas de calidad para la exportación de aceitunas de mesa» (Spanish, and the United States Standards for Grades of Green and Canned Ripe Olives (USA are especially considered. The effects of the new regulations on Nutritional Labelling (mainly in USA, applications of the Analysis and Control of Critical Points (ACCP, and the problems derived from the application of the ISO 9000, or EN 29000, to this Sector are also discussed.

    El trabajo comenta las diferentes normas, tanto nacionales como internacionales, que regulan los aspectos de la calidad de las aceitunas de mesa. Se comentan especialmente la Norma Cualitativa Unificada Aplicable a Aceitunas de Mesa en el Comercio Internacional y las correspondientes COI/CODEX (Consejo Oleícola Internacional, COI, y COI/Codex Alimentarius, respectivamente, la Reglamentación Técnico Sanitaria para la elaboración, circulación, y venta de aceitunas de mesa (española, las Normas de calidad para la exportación de Aceitunas de Mesa (española, y las «United States Standards for Grades of Green and Canned Ripe Olives» (USA. Asimismo se analizan las implicaciones de las nuevas reglamentaciones sobre etiquetado nutricional (principalmente en el comercio con USA, la aplicación del Análisis de Riesgos y Control de Puntos Críticos (ARCPC, y la necesidad de adaptar el Sector al cumplimiento de las diversas normas de la serie ISO 9000 o su equivalente EN 29000.

  18. Medical decision making tools: Bayesian analysis and ROC analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    During the diagnostic process of the various oral and maxillofacial lesions, we should consider the following: 'When should we order diagnostic tests? What tests should be ordered? How should we interpret the results clinically? And how should we use this frequently imperfect information to make optimal medical decision?' For the clinicians to make proper judgement, several decision making tools are suggested. This article discusses the concept of the diagnostic accuracy (sensitivity and specificity values) with several decision making tools such as decision matrix, ROC analysis and Bayesian analysis. The article also explain the introductory concept of ORAD program

  19. Improving Intelligence Analysis With Decision Science.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dhami, Mandeep K; Mandel, David R; Mellers, Barbara A; Tetlock, Philip E

    2015-11-01

    Intelligence analysis plays a vital role in policy decision making. Key functions of intelligence analysis include accurately forecasting significant events, appropriately characterizing the uncertainties inherent in such forecasts, and effectively communicating those probabilistic forecasts to stakeholders. We review decision research on probabilistic forecasting and uncertainty communication, drawing attention to findings that could be used to reform intelligence processes and contribute to more effective intelligence oversight. We recommend that the intelligence community (IC) regularly and quantitatively monitor its forecasting accuracy to better understand how well it is achieving its functions. We also recommend that the IC use decision science to improve these functions (namely, forecasting and communication of intelligence estimates made under conditions of uncertainty). In the case of forecasting, decision research offers suggestions for improvement that involve interventions on data (e.g., transforming forecasts to debias them) and behavior (e.g., via selection, training, and effective team structuring). In the case of uncertainty communication, the literature suggests that current intelligence procedures, which emphasize the use of verbal probabilities, are ineffective. The IC should, therefore, leverage research that points to ways in which verbal probability use may be improved as well as exploring the use of numerical probabilities wherever feasible. PMID:26581731

  20. KAKVOĆA KOZJEG MESA

    OpenAIRE

    Kegalj, Adrijana; Mioč, Boro; Vrdoljak, Marija

    2011-01-01

    Proizvodnja i potrošnja kozjeg mesa najveća je u zemljama Azije i Afrike, dok je u razvijenim zapadnim zemljama na prilično niskoj razini. Međutim, u posljednje vrijeme naglašena je promjena u pristupu kozjim proizvodima, osobito jaretini, mlijeku i siru kao „zdravim“ i poželjnim namirnicama što se odražava na povećanje konzumacije navedenih proizvoda. Jaretina je najvažnija i najzastupljenija kategorija kozjeg mesa na tržištu. Visoke je hranjive vrijednosti, bogata bjelančevina, vitaminima i...

  1. [HEALTH ECONOMIC ANALYSIS AND FAIR DECISION MAKING].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeantet, Marine; Lopez, Alain

    2015-09-01

    Health technology assessment consists in evaluating the incremental cost-benefit ratio of a medicine, a medical device, a vaccine, a health strategy, in comparison to alternative health technologies. This form of socio-eoonomic evaluation aims at optimizing resource allocation within the health system. By setting the terms of valid alternatives, it is useful to highlight public choices, but it cannot in itself make the decision as regards the public funding of patient's access to the considered technology. The decision to include such technology in the basket of health goods and sercices covered, the levels and conditions of the coverage, also result from budget constraints, from economic situation and from a political vision about health policy, social protection and public expenditure. Accordingly, health economic analysis must be implemented on specific and targeted topics. The decision making process, with its health, economic and ethical stakes, calls for a public procedure and debate, based on shared information and argument. Otherwise, health system regulation, confronted with radical and costly innovations in the coming years, will become harder to handle. This requires the development of health economic research teams able to contribute to this assessment exercise. PMID:26619723

  2. MESA - A new approach to low cost scientific spacecraft

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keyes, G. W.; Case, C. M.

    1982-09-01

    Today, the greatest obstacle to science and exploration in space is its cost. The present investigation is concerned with approaches for reducing this cost. Trends in the scientific spacecraft market are examined, and a description is presented for the MESA space platform concept. The cost drivers are considered, taking into account planning, technical aspects, and business factors. It is pointed out that the primary function of the MESA concept is to provide a satellite system at the lowest possible price. In order to reach this goal an attempt is made to benefit from all of the considered cost drivers. It is to be tried to work with the customer early in the mission analysis stage in order to assist in finding the right compromise between mission cost and return. A three phase contractual arrangement is recommended for MESA platforms. The phases are related to mission feasibility, specification definition, and design and development. Modular kit design promotes flexibility at low cost.

  3. Review of The Principles and Applications of Decision Analysis and Behavioral Research

    OpenAIRE

    Breese, Jack

    1988-01-01

    This review examines two important works in decision analysis: Howard and Matheson's The Principles and Applications of Decision Analysis, and Winterfeldt and Edwards's "Decision Analysis and Behavioral Research.

  4. Risk analysis as a decision tool

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    From 1983 - 1985 a lecture series entitled ''Risk-benefit analysis'' was held at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (ETH), Zurich, in cooperation with the Central Department for the Safety of Nuclear Installations of the Swiss Federal Agency of Energy Economy. In that setting the value of risk-oriented evaluation models as a decision tool in safety questions was discussed on a broad basis. Experts of international reputation from the Federal Republic of Germany, France, Canada, the United States and Switzerland have contributed to report in this joint volume on the uses of such models. Following an introductory synopsis on risk analysis and risk assessment the book deals with practical examples in the fields of medicine, nuclear power, chemistry, transport and civil engineering. Particular attention is paid to the dialogue between analysts and decision makers taking into account the economic-technical aspects and social values. The recent chemical disaster in the Indian city of Bhopal again signals the necessity of such analyses. All the lectures were recorded individually. (orig./HP)

  5. ISHM Decision Analysis Tool: Operations Concept

    Science.gov (United States)

    2006-01-01

    The state-of-the-practice Shuttle caution and warning system warns the crew of conditions that may create a hazard to orbiter operations and/or crew. Depending on the severity of the alarm, the crew is alerted with a combination of sirens, tones, annunciator lights, or fault messages. The combination of anomalies (and hence alarms) indicates the problem. Even with much training, determining what problem a particular combination represents is not trivial. In many situations, an automated diagnosis system can help the crew more easily determine an underlying root cause. Due to limitations of diagnosis systems,however, it is not always possible to explain a set of alarms with a single root cause. Rather, the system generates a set of hypotheses that the crew can select from. The ISHM Decision Analysis Tool (IDAT) assists with this task. It presents the crew relevant information that could help them resolve the ambiguity of multiple root causes and determine a method for mitigating the problem. IDAT follows graphical user interface design guidelines and incorporates a decision analysis system. I describe both of these aspects.

  6. True pancreaticoduodenal artery aneurysms: A decision analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Purpose: True pancreaticoduodenal artery aneurysms are rare. No definitive study evaluating the natural history of these lesions or their preferred method of treatment has been published. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the outcome of preventive treatment of unruptured pancreaticoduodenal artery aneurysms using a Markov model. Materials and methods: With the use of a Markov model, we performed a decision analysis to evaluate the outcome of preventive treatment of unruptured pancreaticoduodenal artery aneurysms. The risk of rupture and the mortality of preventive treatment are unknown. Therefore, we performed sensitivity analysis using these parameters. Effectiveness was measured in life expectancy. Results: For 80-year-old patients, preventive treatment was dominated by no treatment if mortality rates of preventive treatment were greater than 1.4%, greater than 2.6%, greater than 3.8%, and greater than 4.8% at annual rupture rates of 1%, 2%, 3%, and 4%, respectively. For 50-year-old patients, preventive treatment was dominated by no treatment if mortality rates of preventive treatment were greater than 3.3%, greater than 5.9%, greater than 8.0%, and greater than 9.7% at annual rupture rates of 1%, 2%, 3%, and 4%, respectively. Conclusion: The effectiveness of preventive treatment of unruptured pancreaticoduodenal artery aneurysms depends on the aneurysm rupture rate, mortality rate of preventive treatment, and patient age. Taking into account the effects of these parameters is important in making treatment decisions.

  7. Application of portfolio theory in decision tree analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galligan, D T; Ramberg, C; Curtis, C; Ferguson, J; Fetrow, J

    1991-07-01

    A general application of portfolio analysis for herd decision tree analysis is described. In the herd environment, this methodology offers a means of employing population-based decision strategies that can help the producer control economic variation in expected return from a given set of decision options. An economic decision tree model regarding the use of prostaglandin in dairy cows with undetected estrus was used to determine the expected return of the decisions to use prostaglandin and breed on a timed basis, use prostaglandin and then breed on sign of estrus, or breed on signs of estrus. The risk attributes of these decision alternatives were calculated from the decision tree, and portfolio theory was used to find the efficient decision combinations (portfolios with the highest return for a given variance). The resulting combinations of decisions could be used to control return variation. PMID:1894809

  8. Using discriminant analysis for credit decision

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gheorghiţa DINCĂ

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper follows to highlight the link between the results obtained applying discriminant analysis and lending decision. For this purpose, we have carried out the research on a sample of 24 Romanian private companies, pertaining to 12 different economic sectors, from I and II categories of Bucharest Stock Exchange, for the period 2010-2012. Our study works with two popular bankruptcy risk’s prediction models, the Altman model and the Anghel model. We have double-checked and confirmed the results of our research by comparing the results from applying the two fore-mentioned models as well as by checking existing debt commitments of each analyzed company to credit institutions during the 2010-2012 period. The aim of this paper was the classification of studied companies into potential bankrupt and non-bankrupt, to assist credit institutions in their decision to grant credit, understanding the approval or rejection algorithm of loan applications and even help potential investors in these ompanies.

  9. Acid rain compliance planning using decision analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Illinois Power Company (IP) is an investor-owned electric and natural gas utility serving portions of downstate Illinois. In addition to one nuclear unit and several small gas and/or oil-fired units, IP has ten coal-fired units. It is easy to understand the impact the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 (CAAA) could have on IP. Prior to passage of the CAAA, IP formed several teams to evaluate the specific compliance options at each of the high sulfur coal units. Following that effort, numerous economic analyses of compliance strategies were conducted. The CAAA have introduced a new dimension to planning under uncertainty. Not only are many of the familiar variables uncertain, but the specific form of regulation, and indeed, the compliance goal itself is hard to define. For IP, this led them to use techniques not widely used within their corporation. This paper summarizes the analytical methods used in these analyses and the preliminary results as of July, 1991. The analysis used three approaches to examine the acid rain compliance decision. These approaches were: (1) the 'most-likely,' or single-path scenario approach; (2) a multi-path strategy analysis using the strategies defined in the single-scenario analysis; and (3) a less constrained multi-path option analysis which selects the least cost compliance option for each unit

  10. Demographics of reintroduced populations: estimation, modeling, and decision analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Converse, Sarah J.; Moore, Clinton T.; Armstrong, Doug P.

    2013-01-01

    Reintroduction can be necessary for recovering populations of threatened species. However, the success of reintroduction efforts has been poorer than many biologists and managers would hope. To increase the benefits gained from reintroduction, management decision making should be couched within formal decision-analytic frameworks. Decision analysis is a structured process for informing decision making that recognizes that all decisions have a set of components—objectives, alternative management actions, predictive models, and optimization methods—that can be decomposed, analyzed, and recomposed to facilitate optimal, transparent decisions. Because the outcome of interest in reintroduction efforts is typically population viability or related metrics, models used in decision analysis efforts for reintroductions will need to include population models. In this special section of the Journal of Wildlife Management, we highlight examples of the construction and use of models for informing management decisions in reintroduced populations. In this introductory contribution, we review concepts in decision analysis, population modeling for analysis of decisions in reintroduction settings, and future directions. Increased use of formal decision analysis, including adaptive management, has great potential to inform reintroduction efforts. Adopting these practices will require close collaboration among managers, decision analysts, population modelers, and field biologists.

  11. An Analysis of Design Decision-Making in Industrial Practice

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ahmed, Saeema; Hansen, Claus Thorp

    examined. The analysis led to a deeper understanding of the decision-making activities undertaken by engineering designers in industrial practice. The decision-making episodes undertaken by individual designers were supported by design strategies, not by formal decision-making methods. This implies that...

  12. Decision Analysis of Program Choices in Magnetic Fusion Energy Development

    OpenAIRE

    D. Warner North; Donald N. Stengel

    1982-01-01

    This paper describes a methodology based on decision analysis for addressing major program decisions in the development of magnetic fusion energy. The development of this complex technology involves a sequence of funding choices over time among multiple technical approaches and under considerable performance uncertainty. The methodology focuses on the next major facility decision in the U.S magnetic fusion energy program. The decision alternatives include the construction and testing of a maj...

  13. Decision analysis: dealing with uncertainty in diagnostic testing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, R D; Slenning, B D

    2000-05-30

    Decision analysis is a process for systematically analyzing complex choices by considering all pertinent information. In this paper, we discuss how uncertainty associated with diagnostic testing can be included in a decision analysis using pay-off tables and decision trees (decision-flow diagrams). Variables associated with diagnostic test interpretation (such as pre-test and post-test probability of disease; test sensitivity, specificity and predictive values; fixed cut-offs versus continuous measurement scales; test dependence associated with the use of multiple tests) are considered. Several decision criteria and output measures are discussed (including MAXIMIN and MAXIMAX criteria, opportunity costs, expected monetary values, expected utility, sensitivity and risk-profile analysis, and threshold analysis). The application of decision analysis to diagnostic testing for Johne's disease and traumatic reticuloperitonitis of cattle, and for canine heartworm disease are used to illustrate both population- and patient-oriented applications and criteria for ranking the desirability of different outcomes. PMID:10802338

  14. Analysis of a distribution decision algorithm

    OpenAIRE

    Hahn, Sung Chu

    1985-01-01

    Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited Distributed decision problems arise whenever two or more sensors and their associated computers must work cooperatively to make a decision about a commonly observed event. Typical examples are in target detection and classification. The problem is usually characterized by a limited bandwidth of the communication link between the sensors. This thesis develops and evaluates an algorithm for distributed decision and compares it to a non-...

  15. Decision forests for computer vision and medical image analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Criminisi, A

    2013-01-01

    This practical and easy-to-follow text explores the theoretical underpinnings of decision forests, organizing the vast existing literature on the field within a new, general-purpose forest model. Topics and features: with a foreword by Prof. Y. Amit and Prof. D. Geman, recounting their participation in the development of decision forests; introduces a flexible decision forest model, capable of addressing a large and diverse set of image and video analysis tasks; investigates both the theoretical foundations and the practical implementation of decision forests; discusses the use of decision for

  16. Decision theory, the context for risk and reliability analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    According to this model of the decision process then, the optimum decision is that option having the largest expected utility. This is the fundamental model of a decision situation. It is necessary to remark that in order for the model to represent a real-life decision situation, it must include all the options present in that situation, including, for example, the option of not deciding--which is itself a decision, although usually not the optimum one. Similarly, it should include the option of delaying the decision while the authors gather further information. Both of these options have probabilities, outcomes, impacts, and utilities like any option and should be included explicitly in the decision diagram. The reason for doing a quantitative risk or reliability analysis is always that, somewhere underlying there is a decision to be made. The decision analysis therefore always forms the context for the risk or reliability analysis, and this context shapes the form and language of that analysis. Therefore, they give in this section a brief review of the well-known decision theory diagram

  17. A regret theory approach to decision curve analysis: A novel method for eliciting decision makers' preferences and decision-making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vickers Andrew

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Decision curve analysis (DCA has been proposed as an alternative method for evaluation of diagnostic tests, prediction models, and molecular markers. However, DCA is based on expected utility theory, which has been routinely violated by decision makers. Decision-making is governed by intuition (system 1, and analytical, deliberative process (system 2, thus, rational decision-making should reflect both formal principles of rationality and intuition about good decisions. We use the cognitive emotion of regret to serve as a link between systems 1 and 2 and to reformulate DCA. Methods First, we analysed a classic decision tree describing three decision alternatives: treat, do not treat, and treat or no treat based on a predictive model. We then computed the expected regret for each of these alternatives as the difference between the utility of the action taken and the utility of the action that, in retrospect, should have been taken. For any pair of strategies, we measure the difference in net expected regret. Finally, we employ the concept of acceptable regret to identify the circumstances under which a potentially wrong strategy is tolerable to a decision-maker. Results We developed a novel dual visual analog scale to describe the relationship between regret associated with "omissions" (e.g. failure to treat vs. "commissions" (e.g. treating unnecessary and decision maker's preferences as expressed in terms of threshold probability. We then proved that the Net Expected Regret Difference, first presented in this paper, is equivalent to net benefits as described in the original DCA. Based on the concept of acceptable regret we identified the circumstances under which a decision maker tolerates a potentially wrong decision and expressed it in terms of probability of disease. Conclusions We present a novel method for eliciting decision maker's preferences and an alternative derivation of DCA based on regret theory. Our approach may

  18. Robust decision analysis for environmental management of groundwater contamination sites

    CERN Document Server

    Vesselinov, Velimir V; Katzman, Danny

    2013-01-01

    In contrast to many other engineering fields, the uncertainties in subsurface processes (e.g., fluid flow and contaminant transport in aquifers) and their parameters are notoriously difficult to observe, measure, and characterize. This causes severe uncertainties that need to be addressed in any decision analysis related to optimal management and remediation of groundwater contamination sites. Furthermore, decision analyses typically rely heavily on complex data analyses and/or model predictions, which are often poorly constrained as well. Recently, we have developed a model-driven decision-support framework (called MADS; http://mads.lanl.gov) for the management and remediation of subsurface contamination sites in which severe uncertainties and complex physics-based models are coupled to perform scientifically defensible decision analyses. The decision analyses are based on Information Gap Decision Theory (IGDT). We demonstrate the MADS capabilities by solving a decision problem related to optimal monitoring ...

  19. Cancer incidence study in Mesa County, Colorado

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In November of 1982 the Colorado Department of Health completed an epidemiologic investigation of leukemia, multiple myeloma, and cancers of the lung, stomach, pancreas and colon in Mesa County, Colorado for the years 1970 to 1979. This investigation was performed in response to a concern that the presence of uranium mill tailings in some Mesa County homes presents a potential cancer hazard. The results of the investigation show that the incidence of multiple myeloma, colon, stomach and pancreatic cancer are not above expected rates. The incidence of leukemia is not above expected rates for the entire study period, 1970 to 1979. The incidence of lung cancer appears elevated when compared to the The Third National Cancer Survey data for Colorado but lower than expected when compared to Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results data. To further examine the leukemia and lung cancer incidence findings, a case/control study was conducted. The controls consisted of colon, stomach and pancreatic cancer cases. The results of the leukemia case/control analysis show no association with the radiation exposure variables: occupational radiation exposure; uranium mining exposure; having ever lived in a type A home (uranium tailings home); and radiation therapy. The lung cancer case/control analysis shows a significant association with only the radiation exposure variable, uranium mining history, indicating cases were more likely to have been uranium miners than were controls. As with leukemia, the study found no association between lung cancer and living in a uranium mill tailings home. The relatively low radiation exposures typical of type A homes and the small number of persons exposed make it very difficult to establish, by epidemiologic methods, that a risk exists

  20. Depression: a decision-theoretic analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huys, Quentin J M; Daw, Nathaniel D; Dayan, Peter

    2015-07-01

    The manifold symptoms of depression are common and often transient features of healthy life that are likely to be adaptive in difficult circumstances. It is when these symptoms enter a seemingly self-propelling spiral that the maladaptive features of a disorder emerge. We examine this malignant transformation from the perspective of the computational neuroscience of decision making, investigating how dysfunction of the brain's mechanisms of evaluation might lie at its heart. We start by considering the behavioral implications of pessimistic evaluations of decision variables. We then provide a selective review of work suggesting how such pessimism might arise via specific failures of the mechanisms of evaluation or state estimation. Finally, we analyze ways that miscalibration between the subject and environment may be self-perpetuating. We employ the formal framework of Bayesian decision theory as a foundation for this study, showing how most of the problems arise from one of its broad algorithmic facets, namely model-based reasoning. PMID:25705929

  1. Significant Labor Decisions--An Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Polhemus, Graig E.

    1977-01-01

    Major labor cases decided during 1976 did not project a clear or simple path for further Constitutional and statutory interpretation, but the year's labor decisions did reveal a new willingness on the part of the U.S. Supreme Court to depart from earlier views of Constitutional law. (JT)

  2. Masti i masne kiseline ovčjeg mesa

    OpenAIRE

    Krvavica, dr.sc. Marina; Kegalj, Andrijana; Đugum, Dr.sc. Jelena

    2013-01-01

    Udio masti i sastav masnih kiselina mesa značajna su svojstva koja utječu na procjenu kvalitete mesa i proizvoda od mesa. Značajnija promjena udjela intramuskularne masti te svaka promjena u sastavu masnih kiselina mesa može utjecati na bilo koji aspekt kvalitete mesa i proizvoda od mesa. Masne kiseline mesa (sastavljene uglavnom od 12 – 22 C atoma) sastoje se od oko 40% zasićenih, 40% mononezasićenih i oko 2 - 25% polinezasićenih masnih kiselina. Manje količine masnih kiselina kraćeg lanc...

  3. Using Cluster Analysis to Examine Husband-Wife Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonds-Raacke, Jennifer M.

    2006-01-01

    Cluster analysis has a rich history in many disciplines and although cluster analysis has been used in clinical psychology to identify types of disorders, its use in other areas of psychology has been less popular. The purpose of the current experiments was to use cluster analysis to investigate husband-wife decision making. Cluster analysis was…

  4. 78 FR 16816 - Radio Broadcasting Services; Ehrenberg, First Mesa, Kachina Village, Munds Park, Wickenburg, and...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-03-19

    ... Order to Show Cause, 77 FR 2241, published January 17, 2012. The full text of this Commission decision... COMMISSION 47 CFR Part 73 Radio Broadcasting Services; Ehrenberg, First Mesa, Kachina Village, Munds Park... filed by Univision Radio License Corporation for an increase in existing service by Station...

  5. Kako unaprijediti lanac mesa: pregled kriterija

    OpenAIRE

    Djekić, dr. sc. Ilija; Tomašević, Dr.sc. Igor

    2015-01-01

    Ovaj rad daje pregled postojećih metodologija koje se primjenjuju za procjenu lanca mesa. Ovisno o ulozi proizvođača u samom lancu, vrsti procjene i kriterijima ocjenjivanja, autori su analizirali različite sustave i postupke usmjerene poboljšanju sigurnosti hrane i značajki kvalitete u proizvodnji mesa. Uloga pojedine tvrtke mesne industrije u lancu mesa utječe na provođenje očekivanih kriterija za sigurnost i/ili kvalitetu hrane. Autori su identificirali razne međunarodne norme ko...

  6. Decision Analysis of Dynamic Spectrum Access Rules

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Juan D. Deaton; Luiz A. DaSilva; Christian Wernz

    2011-12-01

    A current trend in spectrum regulation is to incorporate spectrum sharing through the design of spectrum access rules that support Dynamic Spectrum Access (DSA). This paper develops a decision-theoretic framework for regulators to assess the impacts of different decision rules on both primary and secondary operators. We analyze access rules based on sensing and exclusion areas, which in practice can be enforced through geolocation databases. Our results show that receiver-only sensing provides insufficient protection for primary and co-existing secondary users and overall low social welfare. On the other hand, using sensing information between the transmitter and receiver of a communication link, provides dramatic increases in system performance. The performance of using these link end points is relatively close to that of using many cooperative sensing nodes associated to the same access point and large link exclusion areas. These results are useful to regulators and network developers in understanding in developing rules for future DSA regulation.

  7. Conclusiones de la Mesa 9

    OpenAIRE

    Torregrosa Maciá, Rosa

    2015-01-01

    En la Mesa 9 de las XIII Jornadas de Redes de Investigación en Docencia Universitaria, celebradas el 2 y el 3 de julio de 2015 en la Universidad de Alicante, se han presentado ocho comunicaciones realizadas en diferentes campos de la formación académica como ingeniería, ciencias, educación, economía, nutrición, enfermería o psicología. Estos proyectos están centrados, fundamentalmente, en dos de las líneas planteadas para estas jornadas: “Desarrollo, elaboración y/o revisión de metodologías d...

  8. How decision analysis can further nanoinformatics

    OpenAIRE

    Bates, Matthew E; Sabrina Larkin; Jeffrey M. Keisler; Igor Linkov

    2015-01-01

    The increase in nanomaterial research has resulted in increased nanomaterial data. The next challenge is to meaningfully integrate and interpret these data for better and more efficient decisions. Due to the complex nature of nanomaterials, rapid changes in technology, and disunified testing and data publishing strategies, information regarding material properties is often illusive, uncertain, and/or of varying quality, which limits the ability of researchers and regulatory agencies to proces...

  9. Assessment of Transport Projects: Risk Analysis and Decision Support

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Salling, Kim Bang

    2008-01-01

    The subject of this thesis is risk analysis and decision support in the context of transport infrastructure assessment. During my research I have observed a tendency in studies of assessing transport projects of overlooking the substantial amount of uncertainties within the decision making process...... Monte Carlo simulation, being the technique behind the quantitative risk analysis of CBA-DK. The informed decision support is dealt with by a set of resulting accumulated descending graphs (ADG) which makes it possible for decision-makers to come to terms with their risk aversion given a specific...... transport projects, namely by moving from point estimates to interval results. The main focus of this Ph.D. study has been to develop a valid, flexible and functional decision support tool in which risk oriented aspects of project evaluation is implemented. Throughout the study six papers have been produced...

  10. A decision analysis of an exploratory studies facility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    An Exploratory Studies Facility (ESF) is planned to support the characterization of a potential site for a high-level nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain, NV. The selection of a design for the ESF is a critical decision, because the ESF design may affect the accuracy of characterization testing and subsequent repository design. The assist the design process, a comparative evaluation was conducted to rank 34 alternative relied on techniques from formal decision analysis, including decision trees and multiattribute utility analysis (MUA). The results helped to identify favorable design features and convinced the Department of Energy to adopt the top-ranked option as the preferred ESF design

  11. Uncertainty about probability: a decision analysis perspective

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Howard, R.A.

    1988-03-01

    The issue of how to think about uncertainty about probability is framed and analyzed from the viewpoint of a decision analyst. The failure of nuclear power plants is used as an example. The key idea is to think of probability as describing a state of information on an uncertain event, and to pose the issue of uncertainty in this quantity as uncertainty about a number that would be definitive: it has the property that you would assign it as the probability if you knew it. Logical consistency requires that the probability to assign to a single occurrence in the absence of further information be the mean of the distribution of this definitive number, not the medium as is sometimes suggested. Any decision that must be made without the benefit of further information must also be made using the mean of the definitive number's distribution. With this formulation, they find further that the probability of r occurrences in n exchangeable trials will depend on the first n moments of the definitive number's distribution. In making decisions, the expected value of clairvoyance on the occurrence of the event must be at least as great as that on the definitive number. If one of the events in question occurs, then the increase in probability of another such event is readily computed. This means, in terms of coin tossing, that unless one is absolutely sure of the fairness of a coin, seeing a head must increase the probability of heads, in distinction to usual thought. A numerical example for nuclear power shows that the failure of one plant of a group with a low probability of failure can significantly increase the probability that must be assigned to failure of a second plant in the group.

  12. Uncertainty about probability: a decision analysis perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The issue of how to think about uncertainty about probability is framed and analyzed from the viewpoint of a decision analyst. The failure of nuclear power plants is used as an example. The key idea is to think of probability as describing a state of information on an uncertain event, and to pose the issue of uncertainty in this quantity as uncertainty about a number that would be definitive: it has the property that you would assign it as the probability if you knew it. Logical consistency requires that the probability to assign to a single occurrence in the absence of further information be the mean of the distribution of this definitive number, not the medium as is sometimes suggested. Any decision that must be made without the benefit of further information must also be made using the mean of the definitive number's distribution. With this formulation, they find further that the probability of r occurrences in n exchangeable trials will depend on the first n moments of the definitive number's distribution. In making decisions, the expected value of clairvoyance on the occurrence of the event must be at least as great as that on the definitive number. If one of the events in question occurs, then the increase in probability of another such event is readily computed. This means, in terms of coin tossing, that unless one is absolutely sure of the fairness of a coin, seeing a head must increase the probability of heads, in distinction to usual thought. A numerical example for nuclear power shows that the failure of one plant of a group with a low probability of failure can significantly increase the probability that must be assigned to failure of a second plant in the group

  13. Assessing hydraulic connections across a complex sequence of volcanic rocks - Analysis of U-20 WW multiple-well aquifer test, Pahute Mesa, Nevada National Security Site, Nevada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia, C. Amanda; Fenelon, Joseph M.; Halford, Keith J.; Reiner, Steven R.; Laczniak, Randell J.

    2011-01-01

    Groundwater beneath Pahute Mesa flows through a complexly layered sequence of volcanic rock aquifers and confining units that have been faulted into distinct structural blocks. Hydraulic property estimates of rocks and structures in this flow system are necessary to assess radionuclide migration near underground nuclear testing areas. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) used a 12 month (October 1, 2008— October 1, 2009) intermittent pumping schedule of well U-20 WW and continuously monitored water levels in observation wells ER-20-6 #3, UE-20bh 1, and U-20bg as a multi-well aquifer test to evaluate hydraulic connections across structural blocks, bulk hydraulic properties of volcanic rocks, and the hydraulic significance of a major fault. Measured water levels were approximated using synthetic water levels generated from an analytical model. Synthetic water levels are a summation of environmental water-level fluctuations and a Theis (1935) transform of the pumping signal from flow rate to water-level change. Drawdown was estimated by summing residual differences between measured and synthetic water levels and the Theis-transformed pumping signal from April to September 2009. Drawdown estimates were used in a three‑dimensional numerical model to estimate hydraulic properties of distinct aquifers, confining units, and a major fault.

  14. METHODOLOGY FOR ANALYSIS OF DECISION MAKING IN AIR NAVIGATION SYSTEM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Volodymyr Kharchenko

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract. In the research of Air Navigation System as a complex socio-technical system the methodologyof analysis of human-operator's decision-making has been developed. The significance of individualpsychologicalfactors as well as the impact of socio-psychological factors on the professional activities of ahuman-operator during the flight situation development from normal to catastrophic were analyzed. On thebasis of the reflexive theory of bipolar choice the expected risks of decision-making by the Air NavigationSystem's operator influenced by external environment, previous experience and intentions were identified.The methods for analysis of decision-making by the human-operator of Air Navigation System usingstochastic networks have been developed.Keywords: Air Navigation System, bipolar choice, human operator, decision-making, expected risk, individualpsychologicalfactors, methodology of analysis, reflexive model, socio-psychological factors, stochastic network.

  15. Decision analysis for the selection of tank waste retrieval technology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    DAVIS,FREDDIE J.; DEWEESE,GREGORY C.; PICKETT,WILLIAM W.

    2000-03-01

    The objective of this report is to supplement the C-104 Alternatives Generation and Analysis (AGA) by providing a decision analysis for the alternative technologies described therein. The decision analysis used the Multi-Attribute Utility Analysis (MUA) technique. To the extent possible information will come from the AGA. Where data are not available, elicitation of expert opinion or engineering judgment is used and reviewed by the authors of the AGA. A key element of this particular analysis is the consideration of varying perspectives of parties interested in or affected by the decision. The six alternatives discussed are: sluicing; sluicing with vehicle mounted transfer pump; borehole mining; vehicle with attached sluicing nozzle and pump; articulated arm with attached sluicing nozzle; and mechanical dry retrieval. These are evaluated using four attributes, namely: schedule, cost, environmental impact, and safety.

  16. Decision Analysis System for Selection of Appropriate Decontamination Technologies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ebadian, M.A.; Boudreaux, J.F.; Chinta, S.; Zanakis, S.H.

    1998-01-01

    The principal objective for designing Decision Analysis System for Decontamination (DASD) is to support DOE-EM's endeavor to employ the most efficient and effective technologies for treating radiologically contaminated surfaces while minimizing personnel and environmental risks. DASD will provide a tool for environmental decision makers to improve the quality, consistency, and efficacy of their technology selection decisions. The system will facilitate methodical comparisons between innovative and baseline decontamination technologies and aid in identifying the most suitable technologies for performing surface decontamination at DOE environmental restoration sites.

  17. Decision Analysis System for Selection of Appropriate Decontamination Technologies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The principal objective for designing Decision Analysis System for Decontamination (DASD) is to support DOE-EM's endeavor to employ the most efficient and effective technologies for treating radiologically contaminated surfaces while minimizing personnel and environmental risks. DASD will provide a tool for environmental decision makers to improve the quality, consistency, and efficacy of their technology selection decisions. The system will facilitate methodical comparisons between innovative and baseline decontamination technologies and aid in identifying the most suitable technologies for performing surface decontamination at DOE environmental restoration sites

  18. Evaluating Biosurveillance System Components using Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Generous, Eric Nicholas; Deshpande, Alina; Brown, Mac; Castro, Lauren; Margevicius, Kristen; Daniel, William Brent; Taylor-McCabe, Kirsten

    2013-01-01

    Objective The use of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) has traditionally been limited to the field of operations research, however many of the tools and methods developed for MCDA can also be applied to biosurveillance. Our project demonstrates the utility of MCDA for this purpose by applying it to the evaluation of data streams for use in an integrated, global biosurveillance system. Introduction The evaluation of biosurveillance system components is a complex, multi-objective decision...

  19. METHODOLOGY FOR ANALYSIS OF DECISION MAKING IN AIR NAVIGATION SYSTEM

    OpenAIRE

    Kharchenko, Volodymyr; Shmelova, Tetyana; Sikirda, Yuliya

    2011-01-01

    Abstract. In the research of Air Navigation System as a complex socio-technical system the methodologyof analysis of human-operator's decision-making has been developed. The significance of individualpsychologicalfactors as well as the impact of socio-psychological factors on the professional activities of ahuman-operator during the flight situation development from normal to catastrophic were analyzed. On thebasis of the reflexive theory of bipolar choice the expected risks of decision-makin...

  20. Decision analysis for cleanup strategies in an urban environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The values entering the decisions on protective actions, as concerning the society, are multidimensional. People have strong feelings and beliefs about these values, some of which are not numerically quantified and do not exist in monetary form. The decision analysis is applied in planning the recovery operations to clean up an urban environment in the event of a hypothetical nuclear power plant accident assisting in rendering explicit and apparent all factors involved and evaluating their relative importance. (author)

  1. Choosing a Commercial Broiler Strain Based on Multicriteria Decision Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Hosseini SA; Meimandipour A; Lotfollahian H; Aghashahi AR

    2014-01-01

    With the complexity and amount of information in a wide variety of comparative performance reports in poultry production, making a decision is difficult. This problem is overcomed only when all data can be put into a common unit. For this purpose, five different decision making analysis approaches including  Maximin, Equally likely, Weighted average, Ordered weighted averages and Technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution were used to choose the best broiler strain among t...

  2. Assessing hydraulic connections across a complex sequence of volcanic rocks-Analysis of U-20 WW multiple-well aquifer test, Pahute Mesa, Nevada National Security Site, Nevada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia, C. Amanda; Fenelon, Joseph M.; Halford, Keith J.; Reiner, Steven R.; Laczniak, Randell J.

    2011-01-01

    Groundwater beneath Pahute Mesa flows through a complexly layered sequence of volcanic rock aquifers and confining units that have been faulted into distinct structural blocks. Hydraulic property estimates of rocks and structures in this flow system are necessary to assess radionuclide migration near underground nuclear testing areas. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) used a 12 month (October 1, 2008-October 1, 2009) intermittent pumping schedule of well U-20 WW and continuously monitored water levels in observation wells ER-20-6 #3, UE-20bh 1, and U-20bg as a multi-well aquifer test to evaluate hydraulic connections across structural blocks, bulk hydraulic properties of volcanic rocks, and the hydraulic significance of a major fault. Measured water levels were approximated using synthetic water levels generated from an analytical model. Synthetic water levels are a summation of environmental water-level fluctuations and a Theis (1935) transform of the pumping signal from flow rate to water-level change. Drawdown was estimated by summing residual differences between measured and synthetic water levels and the Theis-transformed pumping signal from April to September 2009. Drawdown estimates were used in a three-dimensional numerical model to estimate hydraulic properties of distinct aquifers, confining units, and a major fault. A maximum water-level drawdown of nearly 0.4 foot in well UE-20bh 1, which is more than 1 mile from the pumping well, was detected across a major fault. Drawdown estimates in the observation well nearest to (ER-20-6 #3, less than 1 mile) and within the same structural block as the pumping well were less than detection (-6 per foot, respectively, and transmissivity estimates range from 1,200 to 3,600 feet squared per day. Sensitivity analyses indicate that the major fault is hydraulically similar to the permeable host rock and connects flow between structural blocks.

  3. The application of decision analysis techniques to remedial action planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    As an illustration of a simple but powerful quantitative tool in geohydrology and waste management, alternatives for remedial action at a generic radioactive waste disposal facility have been evaluated using decision analysis. In addition to imposing a structured approach to alternative selection, decision analysis provides a rational basis for assessing the real value of further site investigations which might reduce uncertainties in site data, and for assessing the real value of developing and improving the performance of engineering controls or in decision analysis terminology--clairvoyance and wizardry, respectively. The quantitative interplay between site characterization, engineering, and institutional factors are examined for remediation of the same facility at two sites differing only in geohydrology. Alternatives considered include leaving in place and capping, in situ grouting, engineered barriers and removal. The following variables appear as uncertainties in the study: release, groundwater velocity, soil Kd, mean barrier life, and a wasteform factor

  4. Use of multicriteria decision analysis to address conservation conflicts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davies, A L; Bryce, R; Redpath, S M

    2013-10-01

    Conservation conflicts are increasing on a global scale and instruments for reconciling competing interests are urgently needed. Multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) is a structured, decision-support process that can facilitate dialogue between groups with differing interests and incorporate human and environmental dimensions of conflict. MCDA is a structured and transparent method of breaking down complex problems and incorporating multiple objectives. The value of this process for addressing major challenges in conservation conflict management is that MCDA helps in setting realistic goals; entails a transparent decision-making process; and addresses mistrust, differing world views, cross-scale issues, patchy or contested information, and inflexible legislative tools. Overall we believe MCDA provides a valuable decision-support tool, particularly for increasing awareness of the effects of particular values and choices for working toward negotiated compromise, although an awareness of the effect of methodological choices and the limitations of the method is vital before applying it in conflict situations. PMID:23869557

  5. Category theoretic analysis of single-photon decision maker

    CERN Document Server

    Kim, Makoto Naruse Song-Ju; Berthel, Martin; Drezet, Aurélien; Huant, Serge; Hori, Hirokazu

    2016-01-01

    Decision making is a vital function in the era of artificial intelligence; however, its physical realizations and their theoretical fundamentals are not yet known. In our former study [Sci. Rep. 5, 513253 (2015)], we demonstrated that single photons can be used to make decisions in uncertain, dynamically changing environments. The multi-armed bandit problem was successfully solved using the dual probabilistic and particle attributes of single photons. Herein, we present the category theoretic foundation of the single-photon-based decision making, including quantitative analysis that agrees well with the experimental results. The category theoretic model unveils complex interdependencies of the entities of the subject matter in the most simplified manner, including a dynamically changing environment. In particular, the octahedral structure in triangulated categories provides a clear understanding of the underlying mechanisms of the single-photon decision maker. This is the first demonstration of a category the...

  6. Closed-Loop Analysis of Soft Decisions for Serial Links

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lansdowne, Chatwin A.; Steele, Glen F.; Zucha, Joan P.; Schlesinger, Adam M.

    2013-01-01

    We describe the benefit of using closed-loop measurements for a radio receiver paired with a counterpart transmitter. We show that real-time analysis of the soft decision output of a receiver can provide rich and relevant insight far beyond the traditional hard-decision bit error rate (BER) test statistic. We describe a Soft Decision Analyzer (SDA) implementation for closed-loop measurements on single- or dual- (orthogonal) channel serial data communication links. The analyzer has been used to identify, quantify, and prioritize contributors to implementation loss in live-time during the development of software defined radios. This test technique gains importance as modern receivers are providing soft decision symbol synchronization as radio links are challenged to push more data and more protocol overhead through noisier channels, and software-defined radios (SDRs) use error-correction codes that approach Shannon's theoretical limit of performance.

  7. Decision making and strategic planning for disaster preparedness with a multi-criteria-analysis decision support system

    OpenAIRE

    Schlobinski, Sascha; Zuccaro, Giulio; Scholl, Martin; Meiers, Daniel; Denzer, Ralf; Guarino, Sergio; Engelbach, Wolf; Taveter, Kuldar; Frysinger, Steven

    2015-01-01

    In the context of the CRISMA FP7 project we have developed a seamless decision support concept to connect simulated crisis scenarios and aggregated performance indicators of impact scenarios with state of the art Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) methods. To prove the practicality of the approach we have developed a decision support tool realising the important aspects of the method. The tool is a highly interactive and user-friendly decision support system (DSS) that effectively helps ...

  8. Use of decision analysis techniques to determine Hanford cleanup priorities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In January 1991, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Richland Field Office, Westinghouse Hanford Company, and the Pacific Northwest Laboratory initiated the Hanford Integrated Planning Process (HIPP) to ensure that technically sound and publicly acceptable decisions are made that support the environmental cleanup mission at Hanford. One of the HIPP's key roles is to develop an understanding of the science and technology (S and T) requirements to support the cleanup mission. This includes conducting an annual systematic assessment of the S and T needs at Hanford to support a comprehensive technology development program and a complementary scientific research program. Basic to success is a planning and assessment methodology that is defensible from a technical perspective and acceptable to the various Hanford stakeholders. Decision analysis techniques were used to help identify and prioritize problems and S and T needs at Hanford. The approach used structured elicitations to bring many Hanford stakeholders into the process. Decision analysis, which is based on the axioms and methods of utility and probability theory, is especially useful in problems characterized by uncertainties and multiple objectives. Decision analysis addresses uncertainties by laying out a logical sequence of decisions, events, and consequences and by quantifying event and consequence probabilities on the basis of expert judgments

  9. Multi-criteria decision analysis for use in transport decision making

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    1 Introduction The most common methodology applied so far to the evaluation of transport systems has been conventional cost-benefit analysis (CBA) (Janic, 2003), which supported by traffic- and impact model calculations provides the decision-makers with a monetary assessment of the project......’s feasibility. A socioeconomic analysis is in this respect a further development of the traditional CBA capturing the economic value of social benefits by translating social objectives into financial measures of benefits (Wright et al.,2009). Internationally seen there has been a growing awareness over...... the recent years that besides the social costs and benefits associated with transport other impacts that are more difficult to monetise should also have influence on the decision making process. This is in many developed countries realised in the transport planning, which takes into account a wide range...

  10. Initial Risk Analysis and Decision Making Framework

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Engel, David W.

    2012-02-01

    Commercialization of new carbon capture simulation initiative (CCSI) technology will include two key elements of risk management, namely, technical risk (will process and plant performance be effective, safe, and reliable) and enterprise risk (can project losses and costs be controlled within the constraints of market demand to maintain profitability and investor confidence). Both of these elements of risk are incorporated into the risk analysis subtask of Task 7. Thus far, this subtask has developed a prototype demonstration tool that quantifies risk based on the expected profitability of expenditures when retrofitting carbon capture technology on a stylized 650 MW pulverized coal electric power generator. The prototype is based on the selection of specific technical and financial factors believed to be important determinants of the expected profitability of carbon capture, subject to uncertainty. The uncertainty surrounding the technical performance and financial variables selected thus far is propagated in a model that calculates the expected profitability of investments in carbon capture and measures risk in terms of variability in expected net returns from these investments. Given the preliminary nature of the results of this prototype, additional work is required to expand the scope of the model to include additional risk factors, additional information on extant and proposed risk factors, the results of a qualitative risk factor elicitation process, and feedback from utilities and other interested parties involved in the carbon capture project. Additional information on proposed distributions of these risk factors will be integrated into a commercial implementation framework for the purpose of a comparative technology investment analysis.

  11. Decision Aid for Planning Local Energy Systems : Application of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Catrinu, Maria

    2006-01-01

    Planning is what sustains an energy system. It is a process of analysis and ongoing decision making about what resources and energy technologies to use when supplying energy to society. This research focuses on integrated energy systems, i.e. systems that are comprised of several energy carriers – electricity, gas, hot water - and energy distribution networks. The planning of these kinds of systems is a complex process, influenced by many factors, among which the most important are the availa...

  12. Case history report on East Mesa and Cerro Prieto geothermal fields

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Davis, DG.; Sanyal, S.K.

    1979-06-01

    Well log analysis as applied to the geothermal industry is one of the areas of technology in great need of further development. One means of improving log analysis technology is to study case histories of the past uses of log analysis as applied to specific fields. The project described in this report involved case history studies on two well-known geothermal areas in North America: the East Mesa field in California and the Cerro Prieto field in Mexico. Since there was considerably more pertinent material available on East Mesa, a major part of the effort on this project was devoted to studying the East Mesa field. One particular problem that first came to attention when studying the Cerro Prieto data was the difficulty in determining actual formation temperature at the time of logging. Since the temperature can have a significant effect on well log readings, an accurate temperature determination was considered to be important.

  13. Using real options analysis to support strategic management decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kabaivanov, Stanimir; Markovska, Veneta; Milev, Mariyan

    2013-12-01

    Decision making is a complex process that requires taking into consideration multiple heterogeneous sources of uncertainty. Standard valuation and financial analysis techniques often fail to properly account for all these sources of risk as well as for all sources of additional flexibility. In this paper we explore applications of a modified binomial tree method for real options analysis (ROA) in an effort to improve decision making process. Usual cases of use of real options are analyzed with elaborate study on the applications and advantages that company management can derive from their application. A numeric results based on extending simple binomial tree approach for multiple sources of uncertainty are provided to demonstrate the improvement effects on management decisions.

  14. Hierarchical neural networks for autonomous data analysis and decision making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eberlein, Susan; Yates, Gigi

    1988-01-01

    A neural network based data analysis and decision making system to increase the autonomy of a planetary rover or similar exploratory vehicle is presented. A hierarchical series of neural networks for real time analysis of scientific images is used. The system under development emphasizes analysis of multispectral images by classifier and feature detector neural networks, to provide information on the mineral composition of a scene. A hierarchy of alternating analysis and decision making networks is being developed to allow increasingly fine scale analysis in regions of the image that are potentially important. It is noted that this system will facilitate both the selection of high priorty scientific information for transmission to earth, and the autonomous collection of rocks and soil for sample return.

  15. Modules for Experiments in Stellar Astrophysics (MESA)

    CERN Document Server

    Paxton, Bill; Dotter, Aaron; Herwig, Falk; Lesaffre, Pierre; Timmes, Frank

    2010-01-01

    Stellar physics and evolution calculations enable a broad range of research in astrophysics. Modules for Experiments in Stellar Astrophysics (MESA) is a suite of open source libraries for a wide range of applications in computational stellar astrophysics. A newly designed 1-D stellar evolution module, MESA star, combines many of the numerical and physics modules for simulations of a wide range of stellar evolution scenarios ranging from very-low mass to massive stars, including advanced evolutionary phases. MESA star solves the fully coupled structure and composition equations simultaneously. It uses adaptive mesh refinement and sophisticated timestep controls, and supports shared memory parallelism based on OpenMP. Independently usable modules provide equation of state, opacity, nuclear reaction rates, and atmosphere boundary conditions. Each module is constructed as a separate Fortran 95 library with its own public interface. Examples include comparisons to other codes and show evolutionary tracks of very l...

  16. Reliability analysis framework for computer-assisted medical decision systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    We present a technique that enhances computer-assisted decision (CAD) systems with the ability to assess the reliability of each individual decision they make. Reliability assessment is achieved by measuring the accuracy of a CAD system with known cases similar to the one in question. The proposed technique analyzes the feature space neighborhood of the query case to dynamically select an input-dependent set of known cases relevant to the query. This set is used to assess the local (query-specific) accuracy of the CAD system. The estimated local accuracy is utilized as a reliability measure of the CAD response to the query case. The underlying hypothesis of the study is that CAD decisions with higher reliability are more accurate. The above hypothesis was tested using a mammographic database of 1337 regions of interest (ROIs) with biopsy-proven ground truth (681 with masses, 656 with normal parenchyma). Three types of decision models, (i) a back-propagation neural network (BPNN), (ii) a generalized regression neural network (GRNN), and (iii) a support vector machine (SVM), were developed to detect masses based on eight morphological features automatically extracted from each ROI. The performance of all decision models was evaluated using the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) analysis. The study showed that the proposed reliability measure is a strong predictor of the CAD system's case-specific accuracy. Specifically, the ROC area index for CAD predictions with high reliability was significantly better than for those with low reliability values. This result was consistent across all decision models investigated in the study. The proposed case-specific reliability analysis technique could be used to alert the CAD user when an opinion that is unlikely to be reliable is offered. The technique can be easily deployed in the clinical environment because it is applicable with a wide range of classifiers regardless of their structure and it requires neither additional

  17. Best-estimate analysis and decision making under uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In many engineering analyses of system safety the traditional reliance on conservative evaluation model calculations is being replaced with so called best-estimate analysis. These best-estimate analyses differentiate themselves from the traditional conservative analyses through two ingredients, namely realistic models and an account of the residual uncertainty associated with the model calculations. Best-estimate analysis, in the context of this paper, refers to the numerical evaluation of system properties of interest in situations where direct confirmatory measurements are not feasible. A decision with regard to the safety of the system is then made based on the computed numerical values of the system properties of interest. These situations generally arise in the design of systems that require computed and generally nontrivial extrapolations from the available data. In the case of nuclear reactors, examples are criticality of spent fuel pools, neutronic parameters of new advanced designs where insufficient material is available for mockup critical experiments and, the large break loss of coolant accident (LOCA). In this paper the case of LOCA, is taken to discuss the best-estimate analysis and decision making. Central to decision making is information. Thus, of interest is the source, quantity and quality of the information obtained in a best-estimate analysis, and used to define the acceptance criteria and to formulate a decision rule. This in effect expands the problem from the calculation of a conservative margin to a predefined acceptance criterion, to the formulation of a consistent decision rule and the computation of a test statistic for application of the decision rule. The latter view is a necessary condition for developing risk informed decision rules, and, thus, the relation between design basis analysis criteria and probabilistic risk assessment criteria is key. The discussion is in the context of making a decision under uncertainty for a reactor

  18. Analysis of the Decision Making in the Personnel Selection Process

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Navrátil, Marek; Klimusová, Helena

    Lanškroun: GOSC Group, s.r.o., 2001. s. 249. [The Tenth European Congress on Work and Organizational Psychology. 16.05.2001-19.05.2001, Praha] Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z7025918 Keywords : Personnel Selection Process * Judgement Analysis * Decision-making process Subject RIV: AN - Psychology

  19. Decision analysis and rational countermeasures in radiation protection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    During the past few years several international organizations (ICRP, IAEA, OECD/NEA), in revising their radiation protection principles, have emphasized the importance of the rationalization and planning of intervention after a nuclear accident. An accident itself and the introduction of protective action entails risks to the people affected, monetary costs and social disruption. Thus protective actions, often including objectives which are difficult to control simultaneously, cannot be undertaken without careful contemplation and consideration of the essential consequences of decisions. Often during an accident there is not enough time for careful consideration. Decision analysis is an analyzing and thought guiding method for the definition of objectives and comparison of options. It is an appropriate methodology assisting in rendering explicit and apparent all factors involved and evaluating their relative importance. The planning of intervention with the help of decision analysis is portion of the preparation for accident situations. In this report one of the techniques of decision analysis, multi-attribute utility analysis, is presented, as concerns its application in planning protective actions in the event of radiation accidents. (orig.)

  20. Calidad de las aceitunas de mesa.

    OpenAIRE

    Garrido Fernández, Antonio; Romero Barranco, Concepción

    1999-01-01

    The paper comments the different regulations related to table olives at national or international scales. The Unified Qualitative standard Applying to Table Olives in International Trade and COI/Codex (International Olive Oil Council, IOC, and IOC/Codex Alimentarius), «Reglamentación Técnico Sanitaria para la elaboración, circulación y venta de aceitunas de mesa» (Spanish), «Normas de calidad para la exportación de aceitunas de mesa» (Spanish), and the United States Standards for Grades of Gr...

  1. Decision Analysis For Nuclear Fuel Cycle Policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The prime objective in this talk is to explore the impact of widely different (or hypothetical) fuel cycle requirement rather than to attempt to predict a probable scenario. In the course of preparation of this talk, it was realized that, despite the very speculative nature of this kind of endeavor, studies like these are considered essential to the long-range planning needs of the national nuclear power industry, utilities and those providing supporting services, even though the current presentation are extremely primitive in that purpose. A nuclear electricity utility tries to reduce fuel cycle costs. But the problems have to be approached with a long-term perspective, and the logical conclusion is that utility has to make technical progress. As nuclear generation gradually become great, supplies of the fuel cycle services are responsible for the R and D about the nuclear fuel cycle services which is useful to implement the technical choices they propose. Then it is for the utility to choose according to his knowledge, if necessary by carrying out additional research. But only the utility acquires real operating experience and prototype reactor or laboratory tests offer limited knowledge quantities. One way to ensure a good guarantee of supply is, obviously, to make the order far enough ahead of time to have a stock. But, on the other hand, stocks are expensive and should be kept to a strict minimum. Therefore, a detailed analysis of uncertainties is required, as well as an effort to optimize the handling of the overall problem. As mentioned earlier, in recent years, specifically the right way to handle the back-end of the fuel cycle has been always hotly contested and ultimately it was a question of reprocessing or direct disposal of spent fuel elements. Direct disposal of spent fuel is, at present, the only possibility of spent fuel disposal option available to the Korean utility. Korea, having virtually no indigenous uranium resources, can hardly afford to

  2. Accommodating complexity and human behaviors in decision analysis.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Backus, George A.; Siirola, John Daniel; Schoenwald, David Alan; Strip, David R.; Hirsch, Gary B.; Bastian, Mark S.; Braithwaite, Karl R.; Homer, Jack [Homer Consulting

    2007-11-01

    This is the final report for a LDRD effort to address human behavior in decision support systems. One sister LDRD effort reports the extension of this work to include actual human choices and additional simulation analyses. Another provides the background for this effort and the programmatic directions for future work. This specific effort considered the feasibility of five aspects of model development required for analysis viability. To avoid the use of classified information, healthcare decisions and the system embedding them became the illustrative example for assessment.

  3. Risk Analysis and Decision Making FY 2013 Milestone Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Engel, David W.; Dalton, Angela C.; Dale, Crystal; Jones, Edward; Thompson, J.

    2013-06-01

    Risk analysis and decision making is one of the critical objectives of CCSI, which seeks to use information from science-based models with quantified uncertainty to inform decision makers who are making large capital investments. The goal of this task is to develop tools and capabilities to facilitate the development of risk models tailored for carbon capture technologies, quantify the uncertainty of model predictions, and estimate the technical and financial risks associated with the system. This effort aims to reduce costs by identifying smarter demonstrations, which could accelerate development and deployment of the technology by several years.

  4. DECISION TREE ANALYSIS OF THE PREDICTORS OF INTERNET AFFINITY

    OpenAIRE

    BUBAŠ, Goran; Kliček, Božidar; Hutinski, Željko

    2001-01-01

    A recently developed model of Internet affinity was used for survey design and data collection on variables that have potential influence on affinity for Internet use. A total of 600 Croatian students with access to the Internet at their college participated in this survey. The collected data were used for investigation of the relation between decision tree analysis and regression analysis of predictor variables of Internet affinity. Different predictors were found to influence two distinct c...

  5. Ethical analysis to improve decision-making on health technologies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Saarni, Samuli I; Hofmann, Bjørn; Lampe, Kristian;

    2008-01-01

    Health technology assessment (HTA) is the multidisciplinary study of the implications of the development, diffusion and use of health technologies. It supports health-policy decisions by providing a joint knowledge base for decision-makers. To increase its policy relevance, HTA tries to extend...... only analyse the ethical consequences of a technology, but also the ethical issues of the whole HTA process must be considered. Selection of assessment topics, methods and outcomes is essentially a value-laden decision. Health technologies may challenge moral or cultural values and beliefs, and their...... beyond effectiveness and costs to also considering the social, organizational and ethical implications of technologies. However, a commonly accepted method for analysing the ethical aspects of health technologies is lacking. This paper describes a model for ethical analysis of health technology that is...

  6. System for decision analysis support on complex waste management issues

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A software system called the Waste Flow Analysis has been developed and applied to complex environmental management processes for the United States Department of Energy (US DOE). The system can evaluate proposed methods of waste retrieval, treatment, storage, transportation, and disposal. Analysts can evaluate various scenarios to see the impacts to waste slows and schedules, costs, and health and safety risks. Decision analysis capabilities have been integrated into the system to help identify preferred alternatives based on a specific objectives may be to maximize the waste moved to final disposition during a given time period, minimize health risks, minimize costs, or combinations of objectives. The decision analysis capabilities can support evaluation of large and complex problems rapidly, and under conditions of variable uncertainty. The system is being used to evaluate environmental management strategies to safely disposition wastes in the next ten years and reduce the environmental legacy resulting from nuclear material production over the past forty years

  7. The Methods of Sensitivity Analysis and Their Usage for Analysis of Multicriteria Decision

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rūta Simanavičienė

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we describe the application's fields of the sensitivity analysis methods. We pass in review the application of these methods in multiple criteria decision making, when the initial data are numbers. We formulate the problem, which of the sensitivity analysis methods is more effective for the usage in the decision making process.Article in Lithuanian

  8. Additions to Black Mesa Flora Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patricia Folley

    2003-12-01

    Full Text Available Many changes have taken place in far western Oklahoma since Jim McPherson’s untimely death in 1994.Then the mesa lobe containing the highest point in Oklahoma and its surrounding slopes was owned and managed by the Oklahoma Chapter of the Nature

  9. Municipal solid waste management system: decision support through systems analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Pires, Ana Lúcia Lourenço

    2010-01-01

    The present study intends to show the development of systems analysis model applied to solid waste management system, applied into AMARSUL, a solid waste management system responsible for the management of municipal solid waste produced in Setúbal peninsula, Portugal. The model developed intended to promote sustainable decision making, covering the four columns: technical, environmental, economic and social aspects. To develop the model an intensive literature review have been conducted. T...

  10. A multi-criteria decision analysis tool to support electricity

    OpenAIRE

    Ribeiro, Fernando; Ferreira, Paula Varandas; Araújo, Maria Madalena Teixeira de

    2012-01-01

    A Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) tool was designed to support the evaluation of different electricity production scenarios. The MCDA tool is implemented in Excel worksheet and uses information obtained from a mixed integer optimization model. Given the input, the MCDA allowed ranking different scenarios relying on their performance on 13 criteria covering economic, job market, quality of life of local populations, technical and environmental issues. The criteria were weighte...

  11. Comparative Analysis of Serial Decision Tree Classification Algorithms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthew Nwokejizie Anyanwu

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available Classification of data objects based on a predefined knowledge of the objects is a data mining and knowledge management technique used in grouping similar data objects together. It can be defined as supervised learning algorithms as it assigns class labels to data objects based on the relationship between the data items with a pre-defined class label. Classification algorithms have a wide range of applications like churn prediction, fraud detection, artificial intelligence, and credit card rating etc. Also there are many classification algorithms available in literature but decision trees is the most commonly used because of its ease of implementation and easier to understand compared to other classification algorithms. Decision Tree classification algorithm can be implemented in a serial or parallel fashion based on the volume of data, memory space available on the computer resource and scalability of the algorithm. In this paper we will review the serial implementations of the decision tree algorithms, identify those that are commonly used. We will also use experimental analysis based on sample data records (Statlog data sets to evaluate the performance of the commonly used serial decision tree algorithms

  12. Corrective Action Investigation Plan for Corrective Action Unit 99: Rainier Mesa/Shoshone Mountain, Nevada Test Site, Nevada

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    caldera as well as from more distant sources. This has resulted in a layered volcanic stratigraphy composed of thick deposits of welded and nonwelded ash-flow tuff and lava flows. These deposits are proximal to the source caldera and are interstratified with the more distal facies of fallout tephra and bedded reworked tuff from more distant sources. In each area, a similar volcanic sequence was deposited upon Paleozoic carbonate and siliciclastic rocks that are disrupted by various thrust faults, normal faults, and strike-slip faults. In both Rainier Mesa (km) to the southwest, and Tippipah Spring, 4 km to the north, and the tunnel complex is dry. Particle-tracking simulations performed during the value of information analysis (VOIA) (SNJV, 2004b) indicate that most of the regional groundwater that underlies the test locations at Rainier Mesa and Shoshone Mountain eventually follows similar and parallel paths and ultimately discharges in Death Valley and the Amargosa Desert. Particle-tracking simulations conducted for the regional groundwater flow and risk assessment indicated that contamination from Rainier Mesa and Shoshone Mountain were unlikely to leave the NTS during the 1,000-year period of interest (DOE/NV, 1997a). It is anticipated that CAU-scale modeling will modify these results somewhat, but it is not expected to radically alter the outcome of these previous particle-tracking simulations within the 1,000-year period of interest. The Rainier Mesa/Shoshone Mountain CAIP describes the corrective action investigation (CAI) to be conducted at the Rainier Mesa/Shoshone Mountain CAU to evaluate the extent of contamination in groundwater due to the underground nuclear testing. The CAI will be conducted by the UGTA Project, which is part of the NNSA/NSO Environmental Restoration Project (ERP). The purpose and scope of the CAI are presented in this section, followed by a summary of the entire document

  13. Choosing a Commercial Broiler Strain Based on Multicriteria Decision Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hosseini SA

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available With the complexity and amount of information in a wide variety of comparative performance reports in poultry production, making a decision is difficult. This problem is overcomed only when all data can be put into a common unit. For this purpose, five different decision making analysis approaches including  Maximin, Equally likely, Weighted average, Ordered weighted averages and Technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution were used to choose the best broiler strain among three ones based on their comparative performance and carcass characteristics. Commercial broiler strains of 6000 designated as R, A, and C (each strain 2000 were randomly allocated into three treatments of five replicates. In this study, all methods showed similar results except Maximin approach. Comparing different methods indicated that strain C with the highest world share market has the best performance followed by strains R and A.

  14. Use of Earth Observation Data for Environmental Monitoring in the Horn of Africa within the Framework of MESA IGAD THEMA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Atheru, Zachary; Fortunate, Muyambi

    2015-12-01

    The achievements and challenges on the implementation of activities of IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) regarding the use of Earth Observation data for environmental monitoring in the Horn of Africa within the framework of MESA IGAD THEMA. Examples of the outputs from the Land Degradation Assessment, Natural Habitat Conservation and Forest Monitoring are provided and explained. The difficulties faced in communicating and disseminating information particularly to decision makers are highlighted. Also outlined is the scope and expected results from the Monitoring for Environment and Security in Africa (MESA) IGAD Thematic action and emphasis placed on lessons learnt on (i) developing services from products (ii) strengthening national networks (III) disseminating and communicating information to decision and policy makers, and (iv) capacity building. The overall objective of the MESA programme in the IGAD region is to enhance land degradation mitigation, natural habitats assessment and Forest Monitoring for sustainable management of environmental resources through the use of Earth Observation data. This is done by strengthening the Earth Observation information management capacity of regional and national institutions in order to support decision and policy making processes. The services produce and distribute regularly land degradation index maps, land cover change indicators on IGAD selected Natural Habitats areas, Forest degradation, deforestation extent, vulnerability index map. It also develops the political and policy frameworks that are strengthened to ensure an active and sustainable participation of IGAD member states in global environmental surveillance initiatives and finally give adequate technical capacity of MESA IGAD stakeholders.

  15. Leadership Style, Decision Context, and the Poliheuristic Theory of Decision Making: An Experimental Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keller, Jonathan W.; Yang, Yi Edward

    2008-01-01

    The poliheuristic (PH) theory of decision making has made important contributions to our understanding of political decision making but remains silent about certain key aspects of the decision process. Specifically, PH theory contends that leaders screen out politically unacceptable options, but it provides no guidance on (1) the crucial threshold…

  16. Integrating Cognitive Mapping Analysis into Multi-Criteria Decision Aiding

    OpenAIRE

    Kpoumié, Amidou; Damart, Sébastien; Tsoukiàs, Alexis

    2012-01-01

    Multi-criteria decision aiding (MCDA) is a process implying two distinctive actors (the client and the analyst) which aims at providing transparent and coherent support for complex decision situations, taking into account values of decision makers involved in a specific decision context. The theoretical framework of MCDA traditionally addresses problems involving a single decision maker. However, MCDA ought to investigate the case where the decision maker is made up of groups of individuals w...

  17. High Temperature Superconducting Terahertz Emitters with Various Mesa Structures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delfanazari, Kaveh; Tsujimoto, M.; Kashiwagi, T.; Asai, H.; Kitamura, T.; Yamamoto, T.; Sawamura, M.; Ishida, K.; Watanabe, C.; Sekimoto, S.; Minami, H.; Tachiki, M.; Hattori, T.; Klemm, R. A.; Kadowaki, K.

    2013-03-01

    In 2007, the first observation of the coherent terahertz (THz) electromagnetic (EM) waves from a mesa structures of intrinsic Josephson junctions (IJJs) in high temperature superconductor Bi2Sr2CaCu2O8+δ (Bi-2212) is reported. The ac-Josephson effect as well as the cavity resonance conditions is considered as the principle mechanism of the THz radiation. In order to understand the cavity effect in THz radiation from IJJ mesas more clearly, we studied mesas with various geometries; various kinds of triangles, and pentagonal mesas with various sizes and thicknesses. The focused ion beam (FIB) milling technique is used in all mesa fabrications. In this talk, we discuss our recent progress in THz emission observation in pentagonal mesas. This work has been supported in part by CREST-JST (Japan Science and Technology Agency), WPI-MANA project (NIMS).

  18. Enhanced electricity system analysis for decision making - A reference book

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The objective of electricity system analysis in support of decision making is to provide comparative assessment results upon which relevant policy choices between alternative technology options and supply strategies can be based. This reference book offers analysts, planners and decision makers documented information on enhanced approaches to electricity system analysis, that can assist in achieving this objective. The book describes the main elements of comprehensive electricity system analysis and outlines an advanced integrated analysis and decision making framework for the electric power sector. Emphasis is placed on mechanisms for building consensus between interested and affected parties, and on aspects of planning that go beyond the traditional economic optimisation approach. The scope and contents of the book cover the topics to be addressed in decision making for the power sector and the process of integrating economic, social, health and environmental aspects in the comparative assessment of alternative options and strategies. The book describes and discusses overall frameworks, processes and state of the art methods and techniques available to analysts and planners for carrying out comparative assessment studies, in order to provide sound information to decision makers. This reference book is published as part of a series of technical reports and documents prepared in the framework of the inter-agency joint project (DECADES) on databases and methodologies for comparative assessment of different energy sources for electricity generation. The overall objective of the DECADES project is to enhance capabilities for incorporating economic, social, health and environmental issues in the comparative assessment of electricity generation options and strategies in the process of decision making for the power sector. The project, established in 1992, is carried out jointly by the European Commission (EC), the Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific

  19. Dynamic sensor action selection with Bayesian decision analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kristensen, Steen; Hansen, Volker; Kondak, Konstantin

    1998-10-01

    The aim of this work is to create a framework for the dynamic planning of sensor actions for an autonomous mobile robot. The framework uses Bayesian decision analysis, i.e., a decision-theoretic method, to evaluate possible sensor actions and selecting the most appropriate ones given the available sensors and what is currently known about the state of the world. Since sensing changes the knowledge of the system and since the current state of the robot (task, position, etc.) determines what knowledge is relevant, the evaluation and selection of sensing actions is an on-going process that effectively determines the behavior of the robot. The framework has been implemented on a real mobile robot and has been proven to be able to control in real-time the sensor actions of the system. In current work we are investigating methods to reduce or automatically generate the necessary model information needed by the decision- theoretic method to select the appropriate sensor actions.

  20. Application of Risk Analysis in Business Investment Decision-Making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martina Merková

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Investment decision-makings should be regarded in each business entity as the crucial factor for its long-term prosperity. An acquired decision affects the performance of the company as well as its competitiveness in long time. If a competent investor has an interest to make a qualified investment decision, it means that he must primarily determine the time and risk factor. In the capital-intensive investment projects, attention must be paid to the risks that the preparation, realization and use of investment bring. The aim of this paper is to identify critical factors that affect the expected profit and cash flow in the implementation of investment projects by applying the most advanced models used to quantify the risks of investing. Research was conducted in a wood processing and furniture manufacturing company. The results given by cash flow indicatiors show that the investment project is feasible and effective. By changing some parameters, sensitivity analysis shows that the main risk factors for the project in question are the selling price, volume of production, material costs and labor costs.

  1. Fuzzy Multicriteria Decision Analysis for Adaptive Watershed Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, N.

    2006-12-01

    The dramatic changes of societal complexity due to intensive interactions among agricultural, industrial, and municipal sectors have resulted in acute issues of water resources redistribution and water quality management in many river basins. Given the fact that integrated watershed management is more a political and societal than a technical challenge, there is a need for developing a compelling method leading to justify a water-based land use program in some critical regions. Adaptive watershed management is viewed as an indispensable tool nowadays for providing step-wise constructive decision support that is concerned with all related aspects of the water consumption cycle and those facilities affecting water quality and quantity temporally and spatially. Yet the greatest challenge that decision makers face today is to consider how to leverage ambiguity, paradox, and uncertainty to their competitive advantage of management policy quantitatively. This paper explores a fuzzy multicriteria evaluation method for water resources redistribution and subsequent water quality management with respect to a multipurpose channel-reservoir system--the Tseng- Wen River Basin, South Taiwan. Four fuzzy operators tailored for this fuzzy multicriteria decision analysis depict greater flexibility in representing the complexity of various possible trade-offs among management alternatives constrained by physical, economic, and technical factors essential for adaptive watershed management. The management strategies derived may enable decision makers to integrate a vast number of internal weirs, water intakes, reservoirs, drainage ditches, transfer pipelines, and wastewater treatment facilities within the basin and bring up the permitting issue for transboundary diversion from a neighboring river basin. Experience gained indicates that the use of different types of fuzzy operators is highly instructive, which also provide unique guidance collectively for achieving the overarching goals

  2. Analysis of Political Decision-Making and Its Influencing Factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xing YAN

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Political decision-making means a country’s political parties, leaders or leadership compare and select implementing principles and approaches and means to achieve the target in political practical activities for the purpose, principles and direction of activities. The process of political decision-making is a dynamic political process that is related to the formation and implementation of major and general decisions of the national, political and social interest groups. This process is to integrate major and general decisions regarding national and social interests. The subjects are state organs, political parties and individual decision makers or decision-making participants, and the finally formed decision is backed by the country’s coercive power with mandatory features. Meanwhile, political decision-making is influenced by system pressure. In the decision-making process, there will be a certain degree of bias between the final decision and the targeted decision.

  3. FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE INDICATORS OF TUNISIAN COMPANIES: DECISION TREE ANALYSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ferdaws Ezzi

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The article at hand is an attempt to identify the various indicators that are more likely to explain the financial performance of Tunisian companies. In this respective, the emphasis is put on diversification, innovation, intrapersonal and interpersonal skills. Indeed, they are the appropriate strategies that can designate emotional intelligence, the level of indebtedness, the firm age and size as the proper variables that support the target variable. The "decision tree", as a new data analysis method, is utilized to analyze our work. The results involve the construction of a crucial model which is used to achieve a sound financial performance.

  4. 'Bread Loaf' Mesa East of Phlegra Montes

    Science.gov (United States)

    2002-01-01

    [figure removed for brevity, see original site] An isolated mesa east of the Phlegra Montes in northeastern Elysium Planitia has a cracked surface that, combined with its overall shape, gives the appearance of a giant loaf of bread. Other mesas with similar surfaces are found in the area, suggesting that at one time these mesas were part of a continuous layer of material. It is likely that at that time, some process caused the graben-like cracks to form. Later erosion of the cracked layer left only the isolated mesas seen in the THEMIS image. One clue that supports this scenario is the presence of many filled and eroded craters throughout the scene but no fresh ones. One way to produce this landscape begins with an ancient and heavily cratered surface that subsequently is buried by some other material. If this overburden was stripped off relatively recently, not enough time would have passed to allow for a new population of fresh craters to be produced. The result would be a landscape with isolated mesas of younger material on top of an ancient, cratered surface.Note: this THEMIS visual image has not been radiometrically nor geometrically calibrated for this preliminary release. An empirical correction has been performed to remove instrumental effects. A linear shift has been applied in the cross-track and down-track direction to approximate spacecraft and planetary motion. Fully calibrated and geometrically projected images will be released through the Planetary Data System in accordance with Project policies at a later time.NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory manages the 2001 Mars Odyssey mission for NASA's Office of Space Science, Washington, D.C. The Thermal Emission Imaging System (THEMIS) was developed by Arizona State University, Tempe, in collaboration with Raytheon Santa Barbara Remote Sensing. The THEMIS investigation is led by Dr. Philip Christensen at Arizona State University. Lockheed Martin Astronautics, Denver, is the prime contractor for the Odyssey

  5. Selection of an optimal Landfill Location using Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis Methods

    OpenAIRE

    Mirakovski, Dejan; Peltecki, Dragi; Despodov, Zoran; Bosev, Zoran; Panov, Zoran

    2013-01-01

    This paper identifies the components necessary to develop a decision analysis framework on issues concerning the selection of a landfill location, to facilitate the selection of a multi-criteria decision analysis process and thereafter to provide guidance on the implementation of the selected multi-criteria decision analysis method within the larger context of the people, processes,and tools used in decision making.The main subject of research of this paper is the applicability of multi-crite...

  6. Veterinarsko javno zdravstvo u proizvodnji i preradi mesa peradi

    OpenAIRE

    Njari, Bela

    2005-01-01

    Naša zemlja ima dugogodišnju tradiciju uzgoja peradi. Razvoj uzgoja peradi («brojlera») uvjetovao je unapređenje klaoničke obrade, a s vremenom i razvoj prerade mesa peradi u veliki asortiman mesnih proizvoda i polugotovih jela. Zadatak veterinarskog javnog zdravstva ogleda se u kontroli zoonoza, nadzoru nad proizvodnjom mesa i proizvoda od mesa peradi, zaštiti dobrobiti peradi te veterinarskoj zaštiti okoliša u uzgoju, klaoničkoj obradi i preradi mesa peradi kroz propisanu legislativu....

  7. Composite tissue allotransplantation of the face: Decision analysis model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cugno, Sabrina; Sprague, Sheila; Duku, Eric; Thoma, Achilleas

    2007-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Facial composite tissue allotransplantation is a potential reconstructive option for severe facial disfigurement. The purpose of the present investigation was to use decision analysis modelling to ascertain the expected quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained with face transplantation (versus remaining in a disfigured state) in an effort to assist surgeons with the decision of whether to adopt this procedure. STUDY DESIGN: The probabilities of potential complications associated with facial allotransplantation were identified by a comprehensive review of kidney and hand transplant literature. A decision analysis tree illustrating possible health states for face allotransplantation was then constructed. Utilities were obtained from 30 participants, using the standard gamble and time trade-off measures. The utilities were then translated into QALYs, and the expected QALYs gained with transplantation were computed. RESULTS: Severe facial deformity was associated with an average of 7.34 QALYs. Allotransplantation of the face imparted an expected gain in QALYs of between 16.2 and 27.3 years. CONCLUSIONS: The current debate within the medical community surrounding facial composite tissue allotransplantation has centred on the issue of inducing a state of immunocompromise in a physically healthy individual for a non-life-saving procedure. However, the latter must be weighed against the potential social and psychological benefits that transplantation would confer. As demonstrated by a gain of 26.9 QALYs, participants’ valuation of quality of life is notably greater for face transplantation with its side effects of immunosuppression than for a state of uncompromised physical health with severe facial disfigurement. PMID:19554146

  8. Contaminant Transport Parameters for the Groundwater Flow and Contaminant Transport Model of Corrective Action Units 101 and 102: Central and Western Pahute Mesa, Nye County, Nevada, Revision 0

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Drici, Warda

    2003-08-01

    This report documents the analysis of the available transport parameter data conducted in support of the development of a Corrective Action Unit (CAU) groundwater flow model for Central and Western Pahute Mesa: CAUs 101 and 102.

  9. Hydrologic Data for the Groundwater Flow and Contaminant Transport Model of Corrective Action Units 101 and 102: Central and Western Pahute Mesa, Nye County, Nevada, Revision 0

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Drici, Warda

    2004-02-01

    This report documents the analysis of the available hydrologic data conducted in support of the development of a Corrective Action Unit (CAU) groundwater flow model for Central and Western Pahute Mesa: CAUs 101 and 102.

  10. Canine neoplasia and exposure to uranium mill tailings in Mesa County, Colorado

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A canine cancer registry was established for Mesa County, Colorado in order to collect material for a case control analysis of exposure to uranium tailings. Between 1979 and 1981, 212 cases of canine cancer were confirmed histologically. Based on the address provided at the time of diagnosis, 33 dogs (15.6%) lived in a house with some exposure to uranium tailings. A control group, comprised of dogs with a histologic diagnosis other than cancer, was stratified according to hospital and matched with cases on a 1:1 basis. No significant differences were noted with respect to exposure to uranium tailings for total cancers or cancers of specific sites including lymph node, breast, liver, testicle and bone. The overall estimated relative risk was 0.70 (95% CI 0.04 to 1.16). Canine population estimates were derived for Mesa County in order to develop crude incidence rates for the major types and sites of cancer. Crude rates were compared with those published previously for Alameda County, California and Tulsa County, Oklahoma. Mesa County rates for total cancer incidence, connective tissue tumors and non melanoma skin cancer were higher than those reported for Alameda County. When compared with Tulsa County, Mesa County rates for total cancer, breast cancer, melanoma and mastocytoma were lower than expected while rates for osteosarcoma, hemangiosarcoma and fibrosarcoma significantly exceeded expected values

  11. Applications of decision analysis and related techniques to industrial engineering problems at KSC

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evans, Gerald W.

    1995-01-01

    This report provides: (1) a discussion of the origination of decision analysis problems (well-structured problems) from ill-structured problems; (2) a review of the various methodologies and software packages for decision analysis and related problem areas; (3) a discussion of how the characteristics of a decision analysis problem affect the choice of modeling methodologies, thus providing a guide as to when to choose a particular methodology; and (4) examples of applications of decision analysis to particular problems encountered by the IE Group at KSC. With respect to the specific applications at KSC, particular emphasis is placed on the use of the Demos software package (Lumina Decision Systems, 1993).

  12. 75 FR 58374 - 2010 Release of CADDIS (Causal Analysis/Diagnosis Decision Information System)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-09-24

    ... AGENCY 2010 Release of CADDIS (Causal Analysis/Diagnosis Decision Information System) AGENCY... Decision Information System (CADDIS). This Web site was developed to help scientists find, develop, organize, and use environmental information to improve causal assessments of biological impairment....

  13. Portfolio Decision Analysis Framework for Value-Focused Ecosystem Management.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matteo Convertino

    Full Text Available Management of natural resources in coastal ecosystems is a complex process that is made more challenging by the need for stakeholders to confront the prospect of sea level rise and a host of other environmental stressors. This situation is especially true for coastal military installations, where resource managers need to balance conflicting objectives of environmental conservation against military mission. The development of restoration plans will necessitate incorporating stakeholder preferences, and will, moreover, require compliance with applicable federal/state laws and regulations. To promote the efficient allocation of scarce resources in space and time, we develop a portfolio decision analytic (PDA framework that integrates models yielding policy-dependent predictions for changes in land cover and species metapopulations in response to restoration plans, under different climate change scenarios. In a manner that is somewhat analogous to financial portfolios, infrastructure and natural resources are classified as human and natural assets requiring management. The predictions serve as inputs to a Multi Criteria Decision Analysis model (MCDA that is used to measure the benefits of restoration plans, as well as to construct Pareto frontiers that represent optimal portfolio allocations of restoration actions and resources. Optimal plans allow managers to maintain or increase asset values by contrasting the overall degradation of the habitat and possible increased risk of species decline against the benefits of mission success. The optimal combination of restoration actions that emerge from the PDA framework allows decision-makers to achieve higher environmental benefits, with equal or lower costs, than those achievable by adopting the myopic prescriptions of the MCDA model. The analytic framework presented here is generalizable for the selection of optimal management plans in any ecosystem where human use of the environment conflicts with the

  14. Portfolio Decision Analysis Framework for Value-Focused Ecosystem Management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Convertino, Matteo; Valverde, L James

    2013-01-01

    Management of natural resources in coastal ecosystems is a complex process that is made more challenging by the need for stakeholders to confront the prospect of sea level rise and a host of other environmental stressors. This situation is especially true for coastal military installations, where resource managers need to balance conflicting objectives of environmental conservation against military mission. The development of restoration plans will necessitate incorporating stakeholder preferences, and will, moreover, require compliance with applicable federal/state laws and regulations. To promote the efficient allocation of scarce resources in space and time, we develop a portfolio decision analytic (PDA) framework that integrates models yielding policy-dependent predictions for changes in land cover and species metapopulations in response to restoration plans, under different climate change scenarios. In a manner that is somewhat analogous to financial portfolios, infrastructure and natural resources are classified as human and natural assets requiring management. The predictions serve as inputs to a Multi Criteria Decision Analysis model (MCDA) that is used to measure the benefits of restoration plans, as well as to construct Pareto frontiers that represent optimal portfolio allocations of restoration actions and resources. Optimal plans allow managers to maintain or increase asset values by contrasting the overall degradation of the habitat and possible increased risk of species decline against the benefits of mission success. The optimal combination of restoration actions that emerge from the PDA framework allows decision-makers to achieve higher environmental benefits, with equal or lower costs, than those achievable by adopting the myopic prescriptions of the MCDA model. The analytic framework presented here is generalizable for the selection of optimal management plans in any ecosystem where human use of the environment conflicts with the needs of

  15. BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE TOOLS FOR DATA ANALYSIS AND DECISION MAKING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    DEJAN ZDRAVESKI

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Every business is dynamic in nature and is affected by various external and internal factors. These factors include external market conditions, competitors, internal restructuring and re-alignment, operational optimization and paradigm shifts in the business itself. New regulations and restrictions, in combination with the above factors, contribute to the constant evolutionary nature of compelling, business-critical information; the kind of information that an organization needs to sustain and thrive. Business intelligence (“BI” is broad term that encapsulates the process of gathering information pertaining to a business and the market it functions in. This information when collated and analyzed in the right manner, can provide vital insights into the business and can be a tool to improve efficiency, reduce costs, reduce time lags and bring many positive changes. A business intelligence application helps to achieve precisely that. Successful organizations maximize the use of their data assets through business intelligence technology. The first data warehousing and decision support tools introduced companies to the power and benefits of accessing and analyzing their corporate data. Business users at every level found new, more sophisticated ways to analyze and report on the information mined from their vast data warehouses.Choosing a Business Intelligence offering is an important decision for an enterprise, one that will have a significant impact throughout the enterprise. The choice of a BI offering will affect people up and down the chain of command (senior management, analysts, and line managers and across functional areas (sales, finance, and operations. It will affect business users, application developers, and IT professionals. BI applications include the activities of decision support systems (DSS, query and reporting, online analyticalprocessing (OLAP, statistical analysis, forecasting, and data mining. Another way of phrasing this is

  16. A Decision Analysis Tool for Climate Impacts, Adaptations, and Vulnerabilities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Omitaomu, Olufemi A [ORNL; Parish, Esther S [ORNL; Nugent, Philip J [ORNL

    2016-01-01

    Climate change related extreme events (such as flooding, storms, and drought) are already impacting millions of people globally at a cost of billions of dollars annually. Hence, there are urgent needs for urban areas to develop adaptation strategies that will alleviate the impacts of these extreme events. However, lack of appropriate decision support tools that match local applications is limiting local planning efforts. In this paper, we present a quantitative analysis and optimization system with customized decision support modules built on geographic information system (GIS) platform to bridge this gap. This platform is called Urban Climate Adaptation Tool (Urban-CAT). For all Urban-CAT models, we divide a city into a grid with tens of thousands of cells; then compute a list of metrics for each cell from the GIS data. These metrics are used as independent variables to predict climate impacts, compute vulnerability score, and evaluate adaptation options. Overall, the Urban-CAT system has three layers: data layer (that contains spatial data, socio-economic and environmental data, and analytic data), middle layer (that handles data processing, model management, and GIS operation), and application layer (that provides climate impacts forecast, adaptation optimization, and site evaluation). The Urban-CAT platform can guide city and county governments in identifying and planning for effective climate change adaptation strategies.

  17. KVALITETA MESA LUBINA TIJEKOM POHRANE NA LEDU

    OpenAIRE

    Bojanić, Krunoslav; Kozačinski, Lidija; Filipović, Ivana; Zdolec, Nevijo; Njari, Bela

    2009-01-01

    Cilj ovog rada bio je odrediti održivost mesa lubina tijekom njegove pohrane na ledu u trajanju od 12 dana pracenjem senzornih, fizikalno-kemijskih i mikrobioloških parametara kakvoce i higijenske ispravnosti. U tu je svrhu pretraženo 30 lubina 2., 4., 6., 9. i 12. dana pohrane na ledu na 3º C. Senzorna ocjena kvalitete ocijenjena je Quality Index Method testom (QIM) izra!enom za lubina, Dicentrarchus labrax (Icelandic Fisheries Laboratories) i Market testom. Uzorci ri...

  18. 36 CFR 7.39 - Mesa Verde National Park.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 36 Parks, Forests, and Public Property 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Mesa Verde National Park. 7.39 Section 7.39 Parks, Forests, and Public Property NATIONAL PARK SERVICE, DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR SPECIAL REGULATIONS, AREAS OF THE NATIONAL PARK SYSTEM § 7.39 Mesa Verde National Park. (a) Visiting...

  19. Towards a controlled sensitivity analysis of model development decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, Martyn; Nijssen, Bart

    2016-04-01

    The current generation of hydrologic models have followed a myriad of different development paths, making it difficult for the community to test underlying hypotheses and identify a clear path to model improvement. Model comparison studies have been undertaken to explore model differences, but these studies have not been able to meaningfully attribute inter-model differences in predictive ability to individual model components because there are often too many structural and implementation differences among the models considered. As a consequence, model comparison studies to date have provided limited insight into the causes of differences in model behavior, and model development has often relied on the inspiration and experience of individual modelers rather than a systematic analysis of model shortcomings. This presentation will discuss a unified approach to process-based hydrologic modeling to enable controlled and systematic analysis of multiple model representations (hypotheses) of hydrologic processes and scaling behavior. Our approach, which we term the Structure for Unifying Multiple Modeling Alternatives (SUMMA), formulates a general set of conservation equations, providing the flexibility to experiment with different spatial representations, different flux parameterizations, different model parameter values, and different time stepping schemes. We will discuss the use of SUMMA to systematically analyze different model development decisions, focusing on both analysis of simulations for intensively instrumented research watersheds as well as simulations across a global dataset of FLUXNET sites. The intent of the presentation is to demonstrate how the systematic analysis of model shortcomings can help identify model weaknesses and inform future model development priorities.

  20. Generalized concavity in fuzzy optimization and decision analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Ramík, Jaroslav

    2002-01-01

    Convexity of sets in linear spaces, and concavity and convexity of functions, lie at the root of beautiful theoretical results that are at the same time extremely useful in the analysis and solution of optimization problems, including problems of either single objective or multiple objectives. Not all of these results rely necessarily on convexity and concavity; some of the results can guarantee that each local optimum is also a global optimum, giving these methods broader application to a wider class of problems. Hence, the focus of the first part of the book is concerned with several types of generalized convex sets and generalized concave functions. In addition to their applicability to nonconvex optimization, these convex sets and generalized concave functions are used in the book's second part, where decision-making and optimization problems under uncertainty are investigated. Uncertainty in the problem data often cannot be avoided when dealing with practical problems. Errors occur in real-world data for...

  1. A Speedy Cardiovascular Diseases Classifier Using Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wah Ching Lee

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Each year, some 30 percent of global deaths are caused by cardiovascular diseases. This figure is worsening due to both the increasing elderly population and severe shortages of medical personnel. The development of a cardiovascular diseases classifier (CDC for auto-diagnosis will help address solve the problem. Former CDCs did not achieve quick evaluation of cardiovascular diseases. In this letter, a new CDC to achieve speedy detection is investigated. This investigation incorporates the analytic hierarchy process (AHP-based multiple criteria decision analysis (MCDA to develop feature vectors using a Support Vector Machine. The MCDA facilitates the efficient assignment of appropriate weightings to potential patients, thus scaling down the number of features. Since the new CDC will only adopt the most meaningful features for discrimination between healthy persons versus cardiovascular disease patients, a speedy detection of cardiovascular diseases has been successfully implemented.

  2. GaN on sapphire mesa technology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Herfurth, Patrick; Men, Yakiv; Kohn, Erhard [Institute of Electron Devices and Circuits, Ulm University, Albert-Einstein Allee 45, 89081 Ulm (Germany); Roesch, Rudolph [Institute of Optoelectronics, Albert-Einstein Allee 45, 89081 Ulm (Germany); Carlin, Jean-Francois; Grandjean, Nicolas [Laboratory of Advanced Semiconductors for Photonics and Electronics, Ecole Polytechnique Federal de Lausanne, 1015 Lausanne (Switzerland)

    2012-03-15

    This contribution reports on a GaN on sapphire mesa technology for lattice matched InAlN/GaN HEMTs similar to a silicon on insulator technology. Ultrathin buffer layers between 500 nm and 100 nm have been deep mesa etched down to the substrate to avoid cross talk between devices through the buffer and provide full transparency outside the active device area (of special interest to biochemical sensor applications).The heterostructure characteristics were: N{sub S}> 1.6 x 10{sup 13} cm{sup -2}, R{sub sh}< 600 {omega}/{open_square}. 0.25 {mu}m gate length HEMT device characteristics are moderate, but essentially similar down to 200 nm buffer thickness. Devices on 100 nm buffer layer are still difficult to reproduce. I{sub on}/I{sub off} was up to 10{sup 9} and sub-threshold slopes down to 90 mV/dec (copyright 2012 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH and Co. KGaA, Weinheim) (orig.)

  3. TENDENCY OF IMPROVEMENT ANALYSIS OF VENTURE ACTIVITY FOR MANAGEMENT DECISIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G.Yu. Iakovetс

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The questions concerning the definition of current trends and prospects of venture financing new innovative enterprises as one of the most effective and alternative, but with a high degree of risk financing sources of the entity. The features of venture financing that is different from other sources of business financing, as well as income from investments of venture capital can greatly exceed the volume of investments, but at the same time such financing risks are significant, so it all makes it necessary to build an effective system of venture capital investments in the workplace. In the course of the study also revealed problems of analysis and minimization of risks in the performance of venture financing of innovative enterprises. Defining characteristics analysis and risk assessment of venture financing helps to find ways to minimize and systematization, avoidance and prevention of risks in the performance of venture capital. The study also identified the major areas of improvement analysis of venture capital for management decisions.

  4. Analysis of ETMS Data Quality for Traffic Flow Management Decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chatterji, Gano B.; Sridhar, Banavar; Kim, Douglas

    2003-01-01

    The data needed for air traffic flow management decision support tools is provided by the Enhanced Traffic Management System (ETMS). This includes both the tools that are in current use and the ones being developed for future deployment. Since the quality of decision support provided by all these tools will be influenced by the quality of the input ETMS data, an assessment of ETMS data quality is needed. Motivated by this desire, ETMS data quality is examined in this paper in terms of the unavailability of flight plans, deviation from the filed flight plans, departure delays, altitude errors and track data drops. Although many of these data quality issues are not new, little is known about their extent. A goal of this paper is to document the magnitude of data quality issues supported by numerical analysis of ETMS data. Guided by this goal, ETMS data for a 24-hour period were processed to determine the number of aircraft with missing flight plan messages at any given instant of time. Results are presented for aircraft above 18,000 feet altitude and also at all altitudes. Since deviation from filed flight plan is also a major cause of trajectory-modeling errors, statistics of deviations are presented. Errors in proposed departure times and ETMS-generated vertical profiles are also shown. A method for conditioning the vertical profiles for improving demand prediction accuracy is described. Graphs of actual sector counts obtained using these vertical profiles are compared with those obtained using the Host data for sectors in the Fort Worth Center to demonstrate the benefit of preprocessing. Finally, results are presented to quantify the extent of data drops. A method for propagating track positions during ETMS data drops is also described.

  5. The analysis of the capacity of the selected measures of decision-making models in companies

    OpenAIRE

    Helena Kościelniak; Beata Skowron-Grabowska; Sylwia Łęgowik-Świącik; Małgorzata Łęgowik-Małolepsza

    2015-01-01

    The paper aims at the analysis of the information capacity of selected instruments of the assessment of decision-making models in the analyzed companies. In the paper there are presented the idea and concepts of decision-making models. There have been discussed the selected instruments of the assessment of decision-making models in enterprises. In the final part of the paper there has been held the quantification of decision- making models in the investigated cement industry companies. To mee...

  6. Combining scenario planning and multi-criteria decision analysis in practice

    OpenAIRE

    Montibeller, Gilberto; Gummer, Haidee; Tumidei, Daniele

    2007-01-01

    The integrated use of Scenario Planning and Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) has been advocated as a powerful combination for providing decision support in strategic decisions. Scenario Planning helps decision makers in devising strategies and thinking about possible future scenarios; while MCDA can support an indepth performance evaluation of each strategy, as well as in the design of more robust and better options. One of the frameworks proposed recently, by Goodwin & Wright, suggest...

  7. Archaeological investigations on the Buckboard Mesa Road Project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Amick, D.S.; Henton, G.H.; Pippin, L.C.

    1991-10-01

    In 1986, the Desert Research Institute (DRI) conducted an archaeological reconnaissance of a new alignment for the Buckboard Mesa Road on the Nevada Test Site for the Department of Energy (DOE). During this reconnaissance, several archaeological sites of National Register quality were discovered and recorded including a large quarry, site 26Ny4892, and a smaller lithic scatter, site 26Ny4894. Analysis of the debitage at 26Ny4892 indicates that this area was used primarily as a quarry for relatively small cobbles of obsidian found in the alluvium. Lithic reduction techniques used here are designed for efficiently reducing small pieces of toolstone and are oriented towards producing flake blanks from small cores and bifacially reducing exhausted cores. Projectile point cross references indicate that the area has seen at least casual use for about 10,000 years and more sustained use for the last 3,000 years. Initial obsidian hydration measurements indicate sustained use of the quarry for about the last 3,000 years although the loci of activities appear to change over time. Based on this study, the DRI recommends that quarrying activities in the area of 26Ny4892 are sufficiently sampled and that additional investigations into that aspect of prehistoric activity in the area are not necessary. This does not apply to other aspects of prehistoric use. DRI recommends that preconstruction surveys continue to identify nonquarrying, prehistoric utilization of the area. With the increased traffic on the Buckboard Mesa Road, there is a greater potential for vandalism to sites of National Register-quality located near the road. The DRI recommends that during the orientation briefing the workers at the Test Site be educated about the importance of cultural resources and the need for their protection. 202 refs., 41 figs., 52 tabs.

  8. The value of decision tree analysis in planning anaesthetic care in obstetrics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bamber, J H; Evans, S A

    2016-08-01

    The use of decision tree analysis is discussed in the context of the anaesthetic and obstetric management of a young pregnant woman with joint hypermobility syndrome with a history of insensitivity to local anaesthesia and a previous difficult intubation due to a tongue tumour. The multidisciplinary clinical decision process resulted in the woman being delivered without complication by elective caesarean section under general anaesthesia after an awake fibreoptic intubation. The decision process used is reviewed and compared retrospectively to a decision tree analytical approach. The benefits and limitations of using decision tree analysis are reviewed and its application in obstetric anaesthesia is discussed. PMID:27026589

  9. SIDEKICK: Genomic data driven analysis and decision-making framework

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yoon Kihoon

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Scientists striving to unlock mysteries within complex biological systems face myriad barriers in effectively integrating available information to enhance their understanding. While experimental techniques and available data sources are rapidly evolving, useful information is dispersed across a variety of sources, and sources of the same information often do not use the same format or nomenclature. To harness these expanding resources, scientists need tools that bridge nomenclature differences and allow them to integrate, organize, and evaluate the quality of information without extensive computation. Results Sidekick, a genomic data driven analysis and decision making framework, is a web-based tool that provides a user-friendly intuitive solution to the problem of information inaccessibility. Sidekick enables scientists without training in computation and data management to pursue answers to research questions like "What are the mechanisms for disease X" or "Does the set of genes associated with disease X also influence other diseases." Sidekick enables the process of combining heterogeneous data, finding and maintaining the most up-to-date data, evaluating data sources, quantifying confidence in results based on evidence, and managing the multi-step research tasks needed to answer these questions. We demonstrate Sidekick's effectiveness by showing how to accomplish a complex published analysis in a fraction of the original time with no computational effort using Sidekick. Conclusions Sidekick is an easy-to-use web-based tool that organizes and facilitates complex genomic research, allowing scientists to explore genomic relationships and formulate hypotheses without computational effort. Possible analysis steps include gene list discovery, gene-pair list discovery, various enrichments for both types of lists, and convenient list manipulation. Further, Sidekick's ability to characterize pairs of genes offers new ways to

  10. Multiobjective Integrated Decision Analysis System (MIDAS): Volume 1, Model overview: Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Farber, M.; Brusger, E.; Gerber, M.

    1988-04-01

    MIDAS (Multiobjective Integrated Decision Analysis System) is an innovative utility planning tool that facilitates the analysis of risk. Three features distinguish this framework from other planning models: it incorporates a generalized decision analysis approach; it includes a completely integrated planning model for demand-supply evaluation; and the complete model runs on a microcomputer. 24 figs.

  11. Model for nuclear proliferation resistance analysis using decision making tools

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The nuclear proliferation risks of nuclear fuel cycles is being considered as one of the most important factors in assessing advanced and innovative nuclear systems in GEN IV and INPRO program. They have been trying to find out an appropriate and reasonable method to evaluate quantitatively several nuclear energy system alternatives. Any reasonable methodology for integrated analysis of the proliferation resistance, however, has not yet been come out at this time. In this study, several decision making methods, which have been used in the situation of multiple objectives, are described in order to see if those can be appropriately used for proliferation resistance evaluation. Especially, the AHP model for quantitatively evaluating proliferation resistance is dealt with in more detail. The theoretical principle of the method and some examples for the proliferation resistance problem are described. For more efficient applications, a simple computer program for the AHP model is developed, and the usage of the program is introduced here in detail. We hope that the program developed in this study could be useful for quantitative analysis of the proliferation resistance involving multiple conflict criteria

  12. Analysis of Decision-Making Processes in the Company

    OpenAIRE

    Svoboda, Petr

    2014-01-01

    This thesis deals with the theory of decision making and furthermore with decision processes in its chosen company. It begins by introducing the company and describing its problem with suppliers. The goal is to address producers in China, demand hypothetical goods, compare offers with local suppliers with the help of multi-criteria decision-making methods, and ultimately decide whether it would be advantageous for the company to request particular sorts of commodities while demand is suitable...

  13. Verbal rating of alternative research reactors using fuzzy decision analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    An approach is introduced here for making decisions about alternative research reactor types based on their compatibility with the environment of Saudi Arabia and is applied to the choice between pool, light water tank, heavy water tank, and TRIGA reactors. The method is based on the fuzzy decision theory, and it allows for consideration of the availability of required local resources as well as ease of acquisition of imported resources, community acceptance, and future expandability. The use of fuzzy decision theory can overcome the numerical precision of a decision maker's judgment by allowing verbal rating and weighting for each attribute and subattribute

  14. Multi-Criteria Decision Making for a Spatial Decision Support System on the Analysis of Changing Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olyazadeh, Roya; van Westen, Cees; Bakker, Wim H.; Aye, Zar Chi; Jaboyedoff, Michel; Derron, Marc-Henri

    2014-05-01

    Natural hazard risk management requires decision making in several stages. Decision making on alternatives for risk reduction planning starts with an intelligence phase for recognition of the decision problems and identifying the objectives. Development of the alternatives and assigning the variable by decision makers to each alternative are employed to the design phase. Final phase evaluates the optimal choice by comparing the alternatives, defining indicators, assigning a weight to each and ranking them. This process is referred to as Multi-Criteria Decision Making analysis (MCDM), Multi-Criteria Evaluation (MCE) or Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA). In the framework of the ongoing 7th Framework Program "CHANGES" (2011-2014, Grant Agreement No. 263953) of the European Commission, a Spatial Decision Support System is under development, that has the aim to analyse changes in hydro-meteorological risk and provide support to selecting the best risk reduction alternative. This paper describes the module for Multi-Criteria Decision Making analysis (MCDM) that incorporates monetary and non-monetary criteria in the analysis of the optimal alternative. The MCDM module consists of several components. The first step is to define criteria (or Indicators) which are subdivided into disadvantages (criteria that indicate the difficulty for implementing the risk reduction strategy, also referred to as Costs) and advantages (criteria that indicate the favorability, also referred to as benefits). In the next step the stakeholders can use the developed web-based tool for prioritizing criteria and decision matrix. Public participation plays a role in decision making and this is also planned through the use of a mobile web-version where the general local public can indicate their agreement on the proposed alternatives. The application is being tested through a case study related to risk reduction of a mountainous valley in the Alps affected by flooding. Four alternatives are evaluated in

  15. Fault trees for decision making in systems analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The application of fault tree analysis (FTA) to system safety and reliability is presented within the framework of system safety analysis. The concepts and techniques involved in manual and automated fault tree construction are described and their differences noted. The theory of mathematical reliability pertinent to FTA is presented with emphasis on engineering applications. An outline of the quantitative reliability techniques of the Reactor Safety Study is given. Concepts of probabilistic importance are presented within the fault tree framework and applied to the areas of system design, diagnosis and simulation. The computer code IMPORTANCE ranks basic events and cut sets according to a sensitivity analysis. A useful feature of the IMPORTANCE code is that it can accept relative failure data as input. The output of the IMPORTANCE code can assist an analyst in finding weaknesses in system design and operation, suggest the most optimal course of system upgrade, and determine the optimal location of sensors within a system. A general simulation model of system failure in terms of fault tree logic is described. The model is intended for efficient diagnosis of the causes of system failure in the event of a system breakdown. It can also be used to assist an operator in making decisions under a time constraint regarding the future course of operations. The model is well suited for computer implementation. New results incorporated in the simulation model include an algorithm to generate repair checklists on the basis of fault tree logic and a one-step-ahead optimization procedure that minimizes the expected time to diagnose system failure. (80 figures, 20 tables)

  16. An Analysis of Design Decision-Making in Industrial Practice

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ahmed, Saeema; Hansen, Claus Thorp

    This paper describes research that confronts a generic decision-making model with design strategies employed by experienced designers. The relationship between the decision-making activities proposed by the model and the eight design strategies identified by an empirical study of design work is e...

  17. Decentralisation of Health Services in Fiji: A Decision Space Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jalal Mohammed

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Background Decentralisation aims to bring services closer to the community and has been advocated in the health sector to improve quality, access and equity, and to empower local agencies, increase innovation and efficiency and bring healthcare and decision-making as close as possible to where people live and work. Fiji has attempted two approaches to decentralisation. The current approach reflects a model of deconcentration of outpatient services from the tertiary level hospital to the peripheral health centres in the Suva subdivision. Methods Using a modified decision space approach developed by Bossert, this study measures decision space created in five broad categories (finance, service organisation, human resources, access rules, and governance rules within the decentralised services. Results Fiji’s centrally managed historical-based allocation of financial resources and management of human resources resulted in no decision space for decentralised agents. Narrow decision space was created in the service organisation category where, with limited decision space created over access rules, Fiji has seen greater usage of its decentralised health centres. There remains limited decision space in governance. Conclusion The current wave of decentralisation reveals that, whilst the workload has shifted from the tertiary hospital to the peripheral health centres, it has been accompanied by limited transfer of administrative authority, suggesting that Fiji’s deconcentration reflects the transfer of workload only with decision-making in the five functional areas remaining largely centralised. As such, the benefits of decentralisation for users and providers are likely to be limited.

  18. Child Protection Decision Making: A Factorial Analysis Using Case Vignettes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stokes, Jacqueline; Schmidt, Glen

    2012-01-01

    This study explored decision making by child protection social workers in the province of British Columbia, Canada. A factorial survey method was used in which case vignettes were constructed by randomly assigning a number of key characteristics associated with decision making in child protection. Child protection social workers (n = 118) assessed…

  19. Clinical Decision Analysis and Markov Modeling for Surgeons: An Introductory Overview.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hogendoorn, Wouter; Moll, Frans L; Sumpio, Bauer E; Hunink, M G Myriam

    2016-08-01

    This study addresses the use of decision analysis and Markov models to make contemplated decisions for surgical problems. Decision analysis and decision modeling in surgical research are increasing, but many surgeons are unfamiliar with the techniques and are skeptical of the results. The goal of this review is to familiarize surgeons with techniques and terminology used in decision analytic papers, to provide the reader a practical guide to read these papers, and to ensure that surgeons can critically appraise the quality of published clinical decision models and draw well founded conclusions from such reports.First, a brief explanation of decision analysis and Markov models is presented in simple steps, followed by an overview of the components of a decision and Markov model. Subsequently, commonly used terms and definitions are described and explained, including quality-adjusted life-years, disability-adjusted life-years, discounting, half-cycle correction, cycle length, probabilistic sensitivity analysis, incremental cost-effectiveness ratio, and the willingness-to-pay threshold.Finally, the advantages and limitations of research with Markov models are described, and new modeling techniques and future perspectives are discussed. It is important that surgeons are able to understand conclusions from decision analytic studies and are familiar with the specific definitions of the terminology used in the field to keep up with surgical research. Decision analysis can guide treatment strategies when complex clinical questions need to be answered and is a necessary and useful addition to the surgical research armamentarium. PMID:26756750

  20. Characterization of Mesa Verde Black-on-white ceramics from southwestern Colorado using NAA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sixty Mesa Verde variety Black-on-white bowls from Castle Rock Pueblo (5MT 1825) and Sand Canyon Pueblo (5MT765) in southwestern Colorado were chemically characterized using neutron activation analysis. Eleven clay sources local to the sites in the McElmo Drainage area were also analyzed. The results revealed two distinct compositional groups containing relative frequencies that imply local production. The occurrence of trade between the two sites was also identified. (author). 20 refs., 5 figs., 2 tabs

  1. Risk Analysis Based Business Rule Enforcement for Intelligent Decision Support

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vasilecas, Olegas; Smaizys, Aidas; Brazinskas, Ramunas

    Intelligent information systems are acting by structured rules and do not deal with possible impact on the business environment or future consequences. That is the main reason why automated decisions based on such rules cannot take responsibility and requires involvement or approval of dedicated business people. This limits decision automation possibilities in information systems. However, business rules describe business policy and represent business logics. This can be used in intelligent information systems, together with risk assessment model to simulate real business environment and evaluate possible impact of automated decisions, to support intelligent decision automation. The chapter proposes risk and business rule model integration to provide full intelligent decision automation model used for business rule enforcement and implementation into intelligent software systems of information systems.

  2. Corporate investment decisions and economic analysis. Exercises and case studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Economic analysis of industrial projects is based on methods which are often simple, sometimes complex, yet always to be applied with rigor. The aim of this book is to help readers assimilate the concepts and methods for investment decision and project evaluation. It offers a wide range of exercises, problems and case studies taken from business, which are the fruit of many years of teaching, consulting and research. Some are direct application of basics, others require a higher degree of reflection for more complex applications. Our approach borrows elements from micro economics, engineering economics and finance theory. While many examples relate to the energy sector, particularly oil and gas, the problems addressed are of broader scope and so are fully applicable to other industry sectors. This book is ideally suited to both professionals and students who seek to master capital budgeting techniques. A review of essential points is proposed at the beginning of each chapter and key methodological elements are recalled in the solutions. (authors)

  3. Selection of Representative Models for Decision Analysis Under Uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meira, Luis A. A.; Coelho, Guilherme P.; Santos, Antonio Alberto S.; Schiozer, Denis J.

    2016-03-01

    The decision-making process in oil fields includes a step of risk analysis associated with the uncertainties present in the variables of the problem. Such uncertainties lead to hundreds, even thousands, of possible scenarios that are supposed to be analyzed so an effective production strategy can be selected. Given this high number of scenarios, a technique to reduce this set to a smaller, feasible subset of representative scenarios is imperative. The selected scenarios must be representative of the original set and also free of optimistic and pessimistic bias. This paper is devoted to propose an assisted methodology to identify representative models in oil fields. To do so, first a mathematical function was developed to model the representativeness of a subset of models with respect to the full set that characterizes the problem. Then, an optimization tool was implemented to identify the representative models of any problem, considering not only the cross-plots of the main output variables, but also the risk curves and the probability distribution of the attribute-levels of the problem. The proposed technique was applied to two benchmark cases and the results, evaluated by experts in the field, indicate that the obtained solutions are richer than those identified by previously adopted manual approaches. The program bytecode is available under request.

  4. Identifying a preservation zone using multi–criteria decision analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Farashi, A.

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Zoning of a protected area is an approach to partition landscape into various land use units. The management of these landscape units can reduce conflicts caused by human activities. Tandoreh National Park is one of the most biologically diverse, protected areas in Iran. Although the area is generally designed to protect biodiversity, there are many conflicts between biodiversity conservation and human activities. For instance, the area is highly controversial and has been considered as an impediment to local economic development, such as tourism, grazing, road construction, and cultivation. In order to reduce human conflicts with biodiversity conservation in Tandoreh National Park, safe zones need to be established and human activities need to be moved out of the zones. In this study we used a systematic methodology to integrate a participatory process with Geographic Information Systems (GIS using a multi–criteria decision analysis (MCDA technique to guide a zoning scheme for the Tandoreh National Park, Iran. Our results show that the northern and eastern parts of the Tandoreh National Park that were close to rural areas and farmlands returned less desirability for selection as a preservation area. Rocky Mountains were the most important and most destructed areas and abandoned plains were the least important criteria for preservation in the area. Furthermore, the results reveal that the land properties were considered to be important for protection based on the obtaine

  5. Scenario Analysis, Decision Trees and Simulation for Cost Benefit Analysis of the Cargo Screening Process

    OpenAIRE

    Sherman, Galina; Siebers, Peer-Olaf; Aickelin, Uwe; Menachof, David

    2013-01-01

    In this paper we present our ideas for conducting a cost benefit analysis by using three different methods: scenario analysis, decision trees and simulation. Then we introduce our case study and examine these methods in a real world situation. We show how these tools can be used and what the results are for each of them. Our aim is to conduct a comparison of these different probabilistic methods of estimating costs for port security risk assessment studies. Methodologically, we are trying ...

  6. Multi criteria decision analysis on a waste repository in Mol

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In Belgium, the management of radioactive waste is taken care of by ONDRAF/NIRAS, the Belgian Agency for Radioactive Waste and Enriched Fissile Materials. Local partnerships with stakeholders from municipalities in existing nuclear zones were setup to facilitate the dialogue between the repository designers and the local community. Since the establishment of the partnership in Mol, MONA in February 2000, all aspects of a possible near-surface or a deep geological repository are discussed in 4 working groups by around 50 volunteer members. The outcome of the discussions in the partnership can be a shared project, supported by both local stakeholders and ONDRAF/NIRAS, in which the specifications and the conditions needed for establishing a repository in Mol are elaborated. MONA asked the Decision Strategy Research Department of SCK-CEN to organise a Multi Criteria Analysis (MCA) in the context of the deciding between a surface and a deep repository for low level radioactive waste. The objective of the multi criteria analysis is to support a number of representatives of the various working groups within MONA in their selection between two acceptable options for a repository of low level radioactive waste on the territory of Mol. The options are the surface repository developed by the working groups of MONA, and a deep repository in the clay layers underneath the nuclear site of Mol. This study should facilitate the selection between both options, or in case this appears to be difficult, at least to get a well-structured overview of all factors (criteria) of importance to the judgement, and to get insight into the degree in which the various criteria contribute to the selection

  7. 75 FR 35457 - Draft of the 2010 Causal Analysis/Diagnosis Decision Information System (CADDIS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-06-22

    ... AGENCY Draft of the 2010 Causal Analysis/Diagnosis Decision Information System (CADDIS) AGENCY... ``anonymous access'' system, which means that EPA will not know your identity or contact information unless... period for the draft Web site, ``2010 release of the Causal Analysis/Diagnosis Decision...

  8. Multi-criteria decision analysis with probabilistic risk assessment for the management of contaminated ground water

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Traditionally, environmental decision analysis in subsurface contamination scenarios is performed using cost-benefit analysis. In this paper, we discuss some of the limitations associated with cost-benefit analysis, especially its definition of risk, its definition of cost of risk, and its poor ability to communicate risk-related information. This paper presents an integrated approach for management of contaminated ground water resources using health risk assessment and economic analysis through a multi-criteria decision analysis framework. The methodology introduces several important concepts and definitions in decision analysis related to subsurface contamination. These are the trade-off between population risk and individual risk, the trade-off between the residual risk and the cost of risk reduction, and cost-effectiveness as a justification for remediation. The proposed decision analysis framework integrates probabilistic health risk assessment into a comprehensive, yet simple, cost-based multi-criteria decision analysis framework. The methodology focuses on developing decision criteria that provide insight into the common questions of the decision-maker that involve a number of remedial alternatives. The paper then explores three potential approaches for alternative ranking, a structured explicit decision analysis, a heuristic approach of importance of the order of criteria, and a fuzzy logic approach based on fuzzy dominance and similarity analysis. Using formal alternative ranking procedures, the methodology seeks to present a structured decision analysis framework that can be applied consistently across many different and complex remediation settings. A simple numerical example is presented to demonstrate the proposed methodology. The results showed the importance of using an integrated approach for decision-making considering both costs and risks. Future work should focus on the application of the methodology to a variety of complex field conditions to

  9. Analysis of risk perception decision context and approaches

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Risk perception can be studied with various approaches. Some of their determinants are first briefly reviewed in this paper: initial postulates, decisional system, nature of the concerned decisions. Finally, perceived risk is studied by considering the constructionistic approach. (author)

  10. An empirical analysis of the corporate call decision

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    An economic study of the the behaviour of financial managers of utility companies was presented. The study examined whether or not an option pricing based model of the call decision does a better job of explaining callable preferred share prices and call decisions compared to other models. In this study, the Rust (1987) empirical technique was extended to include the use of information from preferred share prices in addition to the call decisions. Reasonable estimates were obtained from data of shares of the Pacific Gas and Electric Company (PGE) for the transaction costs associated with a call. It was concluded that the managers of the PGE clearly take into account the value of the option to delay the call when making their call decisions

  11. Multicriteria decision analysis and core values for enhancing vaccine-related decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barocchi, Michèle A; Black, Steve; Rappuoli, Rino

    2016-06-29

    Vaccines have the potential to transform the health of all individuals and to reduce the health inequality between rich and poor countries. However, to achieve these goals, it is no longer sufficient to prioritize vaccine development using cost-effectiveness as the sole indicator. During a symposium entitled "Mission Grand Convergence-The Role of Vaccines," held in Siena, Italy, in July 2015, key stakeholders agreed that the prioritization of vaccine development and deployment must use multicriteria decision-making based on the following core concepts: (i) mortality and severity of the disease, (ii) vaccine safety considerations, and (iii) economic evaluation that captures the full benefits of vaccination. PMID:27358496

  12. An empirical analysis of the corporate call decision

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carlson, Murray Dean

    1998-12-01

    In this thesis we provide insights into the behavior of financial managers of utility companies by studying their decisions to redeem callable preferred shares. In particular, we investigate whether or not an option pricing based model of the call decision, with managers who maximize shareholder value, does a better job of explaining callable preferred share prices and call decisions than do other models of the decision. In order to perform these tests, we extend an empirical technique introduced by Rust (1987) to include the use of information from preferred share prices in addition to the call decisions. The model we develop to value the option embedded in a callable preferred share differs from standard models in two ways. First, as suggested in Kraus (1983), we explicitly account for transaction costs associated with a redemption. Second, we account for state variables that are observed by the decision makers but not by the preferred shareholders. We interpret these unobservable state variables as the benefits and costs associated with a change in capital structure that can accompany a call decision. When we add this variable, our empirical model changes from one which predicts exactly when a share should be called to one which predicts the probability of a call as the function of the observable state. These two modifications of the standard model result in predictions of calls, and therefore of callable preferred share prices, that are consistent with several previously unexplained features of the data; we show that the predictive power of the model is improved in a statistical sense by adding these features to the model. The pricing and call probability functions from our model do a good job of describing call decisions and preferred share prices for several utilities. Using data from shares of the Pacific Gas and Electric Co. (PGE) we obtain reasonable estimates for the transaction costs associated with a call. Using a formal empirical test, we are able to

  13. Brain networks of perceptual decision-making: an fMRI ALE meta-analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Max C Keuken

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available In the recent perceptual decision-making literature, a fronto-parietal network is typically reported to primarily represent the neural substrate of human perceptual decision-making. However, the view that only cortical areas are involved in perceptual decision-making has been challenged by several neurocomputational models which all argue that the basal ganglia play an essential role in perceptual decisions. To consolidate these different views, we conducted an Activation Likelihood Estimation (ALE meta-analysis on the existing neuroimaging literature. The results argue in favor of the involvement of a frontal-parietal network in general perceptual decision-making that is possibly complemented by the basal ganglia, and modulated in substantial parts by task difficulty. In contrast, expectation of reward, an important aspect of many decision-making processes, shows almost no overlap with the general perceptual decision-making network.

  14. Analysis of decisions and evaluation of components influencing the state of decisions of nuclear power plant operators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A proposal for reporting and for feedback of human malfunctions at Swedish nuclear power plants is presented for regular use. The method is intended for the description of terms which are independent of the situation. There is also the possibility to improve the exchange of experience with other countries. The proposed method was tested on a couple of incidents at Swedish nuclear power plants. The simplified version of the decision analysis was found to be sufficient for uncomplicated cases. (G.B.)

  15. Interactive Decision Analysis; Proceedings of an International Workshop on Interactive Decision Analysis and Interpretative Computer Intelligence, Laxenburg, Austria, September 20-23, 1983

    OpenAIRE

    Grauer, M.; A.P. Wierzbicki

    1984-01-01

    An International Workshop on Interactive Decision Analysis and Interpretative Computer Intelligence was held at IIASA in September 1983. The Workshop was motivated, firstly, by the realization that the rapid development of computers, especially microcomputers, will greatly increase the scope and capabilities of computerized decision-support systems. It is important to explore the potential of these systems for use in handling the complex technological, environmental, economic and social probl...

  16. A Survey of Enterprise Architecture Analysis Using Multi Criteria Decision Making Models (MCDM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zia, Mehmooda Jabeen; Azam, Farooque; Allauddin, Maria

    System design becomes really important for software production due to continuous increase in size and complexity of software systems. It is a complex design activity to build architecture for the systems like large enterprises. Thus it is a critical issue to select the correct architecture in software engineering domain. Moreover, in enterprise architecture selection different goals and objectives must be taken into consideration as it is a multi-criteria decision making problem. Generally this field of enterprise architecture analysis has progressed from the application of linear weighting, through integer programming and linear programming to multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) models. In this paper we survey two multi-criteria decision making models (AHP, ANP) to determine that to what extent they have been used in making powerful decisions in complex enterprise architecture analysis. We have found that by using ANP model, decision makers of an enterprise can make more precise and suitable decisions in selection of enterprise architecture styles.

  17. A Costing Analysis for Decision Making Grid Model in Failure-Based Maintenance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Burhanuddin M. A.

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. In current economic downturn, industries have to set good control on production cost, to maintain their profit margin. Maintenance department as an imperative unit in industries should attain all maintenance data, process information instantaneously, and subsequently transform it into a useful decision. Then act on the alternative to reduce production cost. Decision Making Grid model is used to identify strategies for maintenance decision. However, the model has limitation as it consider two factors only, that is, downtime and frequency of failures. We consider third factor, cost, in this study for failure-based maintenance. The objective of this paper is to introduce the formulae to estimate maintenance cost. Methods. Fish bone analysis conducted with Ishikawa model and Decision Making Grid methods are used in this study to reveal some underlying risk factors that delay failure-based maintenance. The goal of the study is to estimate the risk factor that is, repair cost to fit in the Decision Making Grid model. Decision Making grid model consider two variables, frequency of failure and downtime in the analysis. This paper introduces third variable, repair cost for Decision Making Grid model. This approaches give better result to categorize the machines, reduce cost, and boost the earning for the manufacturing plant. Results. We collected data from one of the food processing factories in Malaysia. From our empirical result, Machine C, Machine D, Machine F, and Machine I must be in the Decision Making Grid model even though their frequency of failures and downtime are less than Machine B and Machine N, based on the costing analysis. The case study and experimental results show that the cost analysis in Decision Making Grid model gives more promising strategies in failure-based maintenance. Conclusions. The improvement of Decision Making Grid model for decision analysis with costing analysis is our contribution in this paper for

  18. A critical review and meta-analysis of the unconscious thought effect in medical decision making

    OpenAIRE

    Vadillo, Miguel A.; Kostopoulou, Olga; David R. Shanks

    2015-01-01

    Based on research on the increasingly popular unconscious thought effect (UTE), it has been suggested that physicians might make better diagnostic decisions after a period of distraction than after an equivalent amount of time of conscious deliberation. However, published attempts to demonstrate the UTE in medical decision making have yielded inconsistent results. In the present study, we report the results of a meta-analysis of all the available evidence on the UTE in medical decisions made ...

  19. Inferring Preferences in Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis Using a Logistic Regression Model

    OpenAIRE

    Theodor J Stewart

    1984-01-01

    A method is proposed for the analysis of multiple criteria decision making problems in an interactive environment, when decision-maker preferences are inconsistent with a simple utility model and/or are self-inconsistent (e.g., showing intransitivities). A maximum likelihood estimation procedure is invoked which is based on a logistic regression model relating the probability of selecting one decision option over another to a linear function of attribute values. The method is illustrated by a...

  20. Transdisciplinary Evaluation of Energy Scenarios for a German Village Using Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Peter Schmuck; Ines Wilkens (nee Braune)

    2012-01-01

    Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) can assist local decision processes towards selecting renewable energy systems as it is able to manage qualitative data and offers opportunities to integrate knowledge from local stakeholders. However, little experience is available regarding practical applications of MCDA in real decision processes in communities on their path towards a renewable energy supply. Within the “Bioenergy-Region Ludwigsfelde†project, an MCDA evaluation has been applied t...

  1. An Information Theoretic Analysis of Decision in Computer Chess

    CERN Document Server

    Godescu, Alexandru

    2011-01-01

    The basis of the method proposed in this article is the idea that information is one of the most important factors in strategic decisions, including decisions in computer chess and other strategy games. The model proposed in this article and the algorithm described are based on the idea of a information theoretic basis of decision in strategy games . The model generalizes and provides a mathematical justification for one of the most popular search algorithms used in leading computer chess programs, the fractional ply scheme. However, despite its success in leading computer chess applications, until now few has been published about this method. The article creates a fundamental basis for this method in the axioms of information theory, then derives the principles used in programming the search and describes mathematically the form of the coefficients. One of the most important parameters of the fractional ply search is derived from fundamental principles. Until now this coefficient has been usually handcrafted...

  2. Methodology to decide optimum replacement term for components of nuclear power plants using decision analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mostly, the economic analyses for replacement of major components of Nuclear Power Plants(NPPs) have been performed in deterministic ways. However, the analysis results are more or less affected by the uncertainties associated with input variables. Therefore, it is desirable to use a probabilistic economic analysis method to properly consider uncertainty of real problem. In this paper, the probabilistic economic analysis method and decision analysis technique are briefly described. The probabilistic economy analysis method using decision analysis will provide efficient and accurate way of economic analysis for the repair and/or replace major components of NPPs

  3. Extracting the MESA SR4000 calibrations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charleston, Sean A.; Dorrington, Adrian A.; Streeter, Lee; Cree, Michael J.

    2015-05-01

    Time-of-flight range imaging cameras are capable of acquiring depth images of a scene. Some algorithms require these cameras to be run in `raw mode', where any calibrations from the off-the-shelf manufacturers are lost. The calibration of the MESA SR4000 is herein investigated, with an attempt to reconstruct the full calibration. Possession of the factory calibration enables calibrated data to be acquired and manipulated even in "raw mode." This work is motivated by the problem of motion correction, in which the calibration must be separated into component parts to be applied at different stages in the algorithm. There are also other applications, in which multiple frequencies are required, such as multipath interference correction. The other frequencies can be calibrated in a similar way, using the factory calibration as a base. A novel technique for capturing the calibration data is described; a retro-reflector is used on a moving platform, which acts as a point source at a distance, resulting in planar waves on the sensor. A number of calibrations are retrieved from the camera, and are then modelled and compared to the factory calibration. When comparing the factory calibration to both the "raw mode" data, and the calibration described herein, a root mean squared error improvement of 51:3mm was seen, with a standard deviation improvement of 34:9mm.

  4. MESA: Mercator scheduler and archive system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merges, Florian; Prins, Saskia; Pessemier, Wim; Raskin, Gert; Perez Padilla, Jesus; Van Winckel, Hans; Aerts, Conny

    2012-09-01

    We have developed an observing scheduling and archive system for the 1.2 meter Mercator Telescope. The goal was to optimize the specific niche of this modern small telescope in observational astrophysics: the building-up of long-term time series of photometric or high-resolution spectroscopic data with appropriate sampling for any given scientific program. This system allows PIs to easily submit their technical requirements and keep track of the progress of the observing programmes. The scheduling system provides the observer with an optimal schedule for the night which takes into account the current observing conditions as well as the priorities and requirements of the programmes in the queue. The observer can conveniently plan an observing night but also quickly adapt it to changing conditions. The archiving system automatically processes new files as they are created, including reduced data. It extracts the metadata and performs the normalization. A user can query, inspect and retrieve observing data. The progress of individual programmes, including timeline and reduced data plots can be seen at any time. Our MESA project is based on free and open source software (FOSS) using the Python programming language. The system is fully integrated with the Mercator Observing Control System1 (MOCS).

  5. Effect of Mesa Size on Thermal Characteristics of Vertical-cavity Surface-emitting Lasers

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    HOU Shi-hua; ZHAO Ding; SUN Yong-wei; TAN Man-qing; CHEN Liang-hui

    2005-01-01

    The effect of mesa size on the thermal characteristics of etched mesa vertical-cavity surfaceemitting lasers(VCSELs) is studied. The numerical results show that the mesa size of the top mirror strongly influences the temperature distribution inside the etched mesa VCSEL. Under a certain driving voltage, with decreasing mesa size, the location of the maximal temperature moves towards the p-contact metal, the temperature in the core region of the active layer rises greatly, and the thermal characteristics of the etched mesa VCSELs will deteriorate.

  6. Ethanol or Biodiesel? A Systems-Analysis Decision

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dinan, Frank; Stabler, Tom

    2008-01-01

    This case study stresses the need to broadly consider an entire system, including all of the energy inputs and outputs involved, to determine the real efficiency of that system. It also asks its student audience to consider the role that scientific input plays in policy decision-making processes. It emphasizes that, despite the importance of this…

  7. Managerial Analysis and Decision Support: A Guidebook and Case Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    National Association of College and University Business Officers (NJ3), 2004

    2004-01-01

    Developed and edited by the National Association of College and University Business Officers' (NACUBO's) Accounting Principles Council, this guidebook, written by highly experienced, seasoned college and university leaders, is designed to help readers make sense of today's world and provide the right tools to make the right decisions. The book,…

  8. Description-based and experience-based decisions: individual analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrey Kudryavtsev

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available We analyze behavior in two basic classes of decision tasks: description-based and experience-based. In particular, we compare the prediction power of a number of decision learning models in both kinds of tasks. Unlike most previous studies, we focus on individual, rather than aggregate, behavioral characteristics. We carry out an experiment involving a battery of both description- and experience-based choices between two mixed binary prospects made by each of the participants, and employ a number of formal models for explaining and predicting participants' choices: Prospect theory (PT (Kahneman and Tversky, 1979; Expectancy-Valence model (EVL (Busemeyer and Stout, 2002; and three combinations of these well-established models. We document that the PT and the EVL models are best for predicting people's decisions in description- and experience-based tasks, respectively, which is not surprising as these two models are designed specially for these kinds of tasks. Furthermore, we find that models involving linear weighting of gains and losses perform better in both kinds of tasks, from the point of view of generalizability and individual parameter consistency. We therefore, conclude that, overall, when both prospects are mixed, the assumption of diminishing sensitivity does not improve models' prediction power for individual decision-makers. Finally, for some of the models' parameters, we document consistency at the individual level between description- and experience-based tasks.

  9. A decision analysis approach to climate adaptation: comparing multiple pathways for multi-decadal decision making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, B. B.; Little, L.

    2013-12-01

    Policy planners around the world are required to consider the implications of adapting to climatic change across spatial contexts and decadal timeframes. However, local level information for planning is often poorly defined, even though climate adaptation decision-making is made at this scale. This is especially true when considering sea level rise and coastal impacts of climate change. We present a simple approach using sea level rise simulations paired with adaptation scenarios to assess a range of adaptation options available to local councils dealing with issues of beach recession under present and future sea level rise and storm surge. Erosion and beach recession pose a large socioeconomic risk to coastal communities because of the loss of key coastal infrastructure. We examine the well-known adaptation technique of beach nourishment and assess various timings and amounts of beach nourishment at decadal time spans in relation to beach recession impacts. The objective was to identify an adaptation strategy that would allow for a low frequency of management interventions, the maintenance of beach width, and the ability to minimize variation in beach width over the 2010 to 2100 simulation period. 1000 replications of each adaptation option were produced against the 90 year simulation in order to model the ability each adaptation option to achieve the three key objectives. Three sets of adaptation scenarios were identified. Within each scenario, a number of adaptation options were tested. The three scenarios were: 1) Fixed periodic beach replenishment of specific amounts at 20 and 50 year intervals, 2) Beach replenishment to the initial beach width based on trigger levels of recession (5m, 10m, 20m), and 3) Fixed period beach replenishment of a variable amount at decadal intervals (every 10, 20, 30, 40, 50 years). For each adaptation option, we show the effectiveness of each beach replenishment scenario to maintain beach width and consider the implications of more

  10. Negative decision outcomes are more common among people with lower decision-making competence: an item-level analysis of the Decision Outcome Inventory (DOI)

    OpenAIRE

    Parker, Andrew M.; Bruine de Bruin, Wändi; Fischhoff, Baruch

    2015-01-01

    Most behavioral decision research takes place in carefully controlled laboratory settings, and examination of relationships between performance and specific real-world decision outcomes is rare. One prior study shows that people who perform better on hypothetical decision tasks, assessed using the Adult Decision-Making Competence (A-DMC) measure, also tend to experience better real-world decision outcomes, as reported on the Decision Outcomes Inventory (DOI). The DOI score reflects avoidance ...

  11. Negative decision outcomes are more common among people with lower decision-making competence: An item-level analysis of the Decision Outcome Inventory (DOI)

    OpenAIRE

    Parker, Andrew M.; Wändi eBruine De Bruin; Baruch eFischhoff

    2015-01-01

    Most behavioral decision research takes place in carefully controlled laboratory settings, and examination of relationships between performance and specific real-world decision outcomes is rare. One prior study shows that people who perform better on hypothetical decision tasks, assessed using the Adult Decision-Making Competence (A-DMC) measure, also tend to experience better real-world decision outcomes, as reported on the Decision Outcomes Inventory (DOI). The DOI score reflects avoidance ...

  12. Decision analysis interviews on protective actions in Finland supported by the RODOS system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Haemaelaeinen, R.P.; Lindstedt, M. [Helsinki Univ. of Technology, Otaniemi (Finland). System Analysis Lab.; Sinkko, K.; Ammann, M. [Radiation and Nuclear Safety Authority, Helsinki (Finland); Salo, A. [Lepolantie 54, Helsinki (Finland)

    2000-03-01

    This work was undertaken in order to study the utilisation of decision analysis interviews and of the RODOS system when planning protective actions in the case of a nuclear accident. Six decision analysis interview meetings were organised. Interviewees were competent national safety authorities and technical level decision-makers, i.e., those who are responsible for drawing up advice or making presentations of matters to decision-makers responsible for the practical implementation of the actions. The theme of the meetings was to study how uncertainties could be included in the decision-making process and whether pre-structured generic attributes and value trees would help this process and save time. The approach was to present a generic value tree, a decision table and a selected information package at the beginning of the interviews. The interviewees then examined the suggested value tree in order to ensure that no important factors have been omitted and they made changes when necessary. Also, the decision table was examined and altered by some participants and some of them asked for further information on some issues. But all in all the selected approach allowed for more time and effort to be allocated to value trade-offs and elicitation of risk attitudes. All information was calculated with the support of the RODOS system. Predefined value trees were found to ensure that all relevant factors are considered. The participants also felt that RODOS could provide the required information but, as in previous RODOS exercises, they found it more problematic to use decision analysis methods when planning countermeasures in the early phase of a nuclear accident. Furthermore, it was again noted that understanding the actual meaning 'soft' attributes, such as socio-psychological impacts, was not a straightforward issue. Consequently, the definition of attributes and training in advance would be beneficial. The incorporation of uncertainties also proved to be

  13. Decision analysis interviews on protective actions in Finland supported by the RODOS system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This work was undertaken in order to study the utilisation of decision analysis interviews and of the RODOS system when planning protective actions in the case of a nuclear accident. Six decision analysis interview meetings were organised. Interviewees were competent national safety authorities and technical level decision-makers, i.e., those who are responsible for drawing up advice or making presentations of matters to decision-makers responsible for the practical implementation of the actions. The theme of the meetings was to study how uncertainties could be included in the decision-making process and whether pre-structured generic attributes and value trees would help this process and save time. The approach was to present a generic value tree, a decision table and a selected information package at the beginning of the interviews. The interviewees then examined the suggested value tree in order to ensure that no important factors have been omitted and they made changes when necessary. Also, the decision table was examined and altered by some participants and some of them asked for further information on some issues. But all in all the selected approach allowed for more time and effort to be allocated to value trade-offs and elicitation of risk attitudes. All information was calculated with the support of the RODOS system. Predefined value trees were found to ensure that all relevant factors are considered. The participants also felt that RODOS could provide the required information but, as in previous RODOS exercises, they found it more problematic to use decision analysis methods when planning countermeasures in the early phase of a nuclear accident. Furthermore, it was again noted that understanding the actual meaning 'soft' attributes, such as socio-psychological impacts, was not a straightforward issue. Consequently, the definition of attributes and training in advance would be beneficial. The incorporation of uncertainties also proved to be difficult and

  14. Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis for Health Care Decision Making-An Introduction: Report 1 of the ISPOR MCDA Emerging Good Practices Task Force.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thokala, Praveen; Devlin, Nancy; Marsh, Kevin; Baltussen, Rob; Boysen, Meindert; Kalo, Zoltan; Longrenn, Thomas; Mussen, Filip; Peacock, Stuart; Watkins, John; Ijzerman, Maarten

    2016-01-01

    Health care decisions are complex and involve confronting trade-offs between multiple, often conflicting, objectives. Using structured, explicit approaches to decisions involving multiple criteria can improve the quality of decision making and a set of techniques, known under the collective heading multiple criteria decision analysis (MCDA), are useful for this purpose. MCDA methods are widely used in other sectors, and recently there has been an increase in health care applications. In 2014, ISPOR established an MCDA Emerging Good Practices Task Force. It was charged with establishing a common definition for MCDA in health care decision making and developing good practice guidelines for conducting MCDA to aid health care decision making. This initial ISPOR MCDA task force report provides an introduction to MCDA - it defines MCDA; provides examples of its use in different kinds of decision making in health care (including benefit risk analysis, health technology assessment, resource allocation, portfolio decision analysis, shared patient clinician decision making and prioritizing patients' access to services); provides an overview of the principal methods of MCDA; and describes the key steps involved. Upon reviewing this report, readers should have a solid overview of MCDA methods and their potential for supporting health care decision making. PMID:26797229

  15. Second-Order Risk Constraints in Decision Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Love Ekenberg

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Recently, representations and methods aimed at analysing decision problems where probabilities and values (utilities are associated with distributions over them (second-order representations have been suggested. In this paper we present an approach to how imprecise information can be modelled by means of second-order distributions and how a risk evaluation process can be elaborated by integrating procedures for numerically imprecise probabilities and utilities. We discuss some shortcomings of the use of the principle of maximising the expected utility and of utility theory in general, and offer remedies by the introduction of supplementary decision rules based on a concept of risk constraints taking advantage of second-order distributions.

  16. Using multicriteria decision analysis to support research priority setting in biomedical translational research projects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Graaf, Gimon; Postmus, Douwe; Buskens, Erik

    2015-01-01

    Translational research is conducted to achieve a predefined set of economic or societal goals. As a result, investment decisions on where available resources have the highest potential in achieving these goals have to be made. In this paper, we first describe how multicriteria decision analysis can assist in defining the decision context and in ensuring that all relevant aspects of the decision problem are incorporated in the decision making process. We then present the results of a case study to support priority setting in a translational research consortium aimed at reducing the burden of disease of type 2 diabetes. During problem structuring, we identified four research alternatives (primary, secondary, tertiary microvascular, and tertiary macrovascular prevention) and a set of six decision criteria. Scoring of these alternatives against the criteria was done using a combination of expert judgement and previously published data. Lastly, decision analysis was performed using stochastic multicriteria acceptability analysis, which allows for the combined use of numerical and ordinal data. We found that the development of novel techniques applied in secondary prevention would be a poor investment of research funds. The ranking of the remaining alternatives was however strongly dependent on the decision maker's preferences for certain criteria. PMID:26495288

  17. Situated analysis of team handball players' decisions: An exploratory study

    OpenAIRE

    Lenzen, Benoît; Theunissen, Catherine; Cloes, Marc

    2009-01-01

    This exploratory study aimed to investigate elements involved in decision making in team handball live situations and to provide coaches and educators with teaching recommendations. The study was positioned within the framework of the situated action paradigm of which two aspects were of particular interest for this project: (a) the relationship between planning and action, and (b) the perception-action coordination. We used qualitative methods that linked (a) video observation of six female ...

  18. Environmental Volatility, Development Decisions, and Software Volatility: A Longitudinal Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Evelyn J. Barry; Kemerer, Chris F.; Slaughter, Sandra A.

    2006-01-01

    Although product development research often focuses on activities prior to product launch, for long-lived, adaptable products like software, development can continue over the entire product life cycle. For managers of these products the challenges are to predict when and how much the products will change and to understand how their development decisions influence the timing and magnitude of future change activities. We develop a two-stage model that relates environmental volatility to product...

  19. Analysis of Decision Postponement Strategies for Aircraft Assignment under Uncertainty

    OpenAIRE

    Suwandechochai, Rawee

    2002-01-01

    The ability to effectively match supply and demand can lead to significant revenue benefits in the airline industry. Airline supply management deals with assigning the right resources (i.e., aircraft and crew) to the right routes in the flight network. Due to certain crew regulations, operating characteristics, and constraints of the airline companies, these supply management decisions need to be made well in advance of departures, at a time when demand is highly uncertain. However, demand fo...

  20. Hanford Site cleanup and transition: Risk data needs for decision making (Hanford risk data gap analysis decision guide)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Given the broad array of environmental problems, technical alternatives, and outcomes desired by different stakeholders at Hanford, DOE will have to make difficult resource allocations over the next few decades. Although some of these allocations will be driven purely by legal requirements, almost all of the major objectives of the cleanup and economic transition missions involve choices among alternative pathways. This study examined the following questions: what risk information is needed to make good decisions at Hanford; how do those data needs compare to the set(s) of risk data that will be generated by regulatory compliance activities and various non-compliance studies that are also concerned with risk? This analysis examined the Hanford Site missions, the Hanford Strategic Plan, known stakeholder values, and the most important decisions that have to be made at Hanford to determine a minimum domain of risk information required to make good decisions that will withstand legal, political, and technical scrutiny. The primary risk categories include (1) public health, (2) occupational health and safety, (3) ecological integrity, (4) cultural-religious welfare, and (5) socio-economic welfare

  1. Warfighter decision making performance analysis as an investment priority driver

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thornley, David J.; Dean, David F.; Kirk, James C.

    2010-04-01

    Estimating the relative value of alternative tactics, techniques and procedures (TTP) and information systems requires measures of the costs and benefits of each, and methods for combining and comparing those measures. The NATO Code of Best Practice for Command and Control Assessment explains that decision making quality would ideally be best assessed on outcomes. Lessons learned in practice can be assessed statistically to support this, but experimentation with alternate measures in live conflict is undesirable. To this end, the development of practical experimentation to parameterize effective constructive simulation and analytic modelling for system utility prediction is desirable. The Land Battlespace Systems Department of Dstl has modeled human development of situational awareness to support constructive simulation by empirically discovering how evidence is weighed according to circumstance, personality, training and briefing. The human decision maker (DM) provides the backbone of the information processing activity associated with military engagements because of inherent uncertainty associated with combat operations. To develop methods for representing the process in order to assess equipment and non-technological interventions such as training and TTPs we are developing componentized or modularized timed analytic stochastic model components and instruments as part of a framework to support quantitative assessment of intelligence production and consumption methods in a human decision maker-centric mission space. In this paper, we formulate an abstraction of the human intelligence fusion process from the Defence Science and Technology Laboratory's (Dstl's) INCIDER model to include in our framework, and synthesize relevant cost and benefit characteristics.

  2. Decision support system for the analysis of hospital operation indicators.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Fan; Lin, Jiunn Rong; Tsai, Wen-Chen

    2002-12-01

    The inauguration of national health insurance (NHI) in many countries and their worsening financial condition has increased the sensitivity to operational cost and efficiency in hospitals. For several years, hospitals have been monitoring their operations by analyzing the financial and operational reports that are provided. Because of the rapidly changing character of the medical industry, statistical data shown on paper are no longer sufficient for decision makers. This paper describes a decision support system (DSS) for hospital administrators to assist in analyzing their operations efficiently and precisely. In hospitals, operational data of outpatients and inpatients are now stored on computers, resulting in much easier and faster data acquisition for administrators. The proposed system makes suggestions to hospital administrators and is able to self-learn to improve its future usefulness. With the dual capabilities of integrating evaluations and data collecting, the system can assist administrators in discovering and resolving problems quickly. The system provides multidimensional and multilevel analyses, by using data warehousing techniques, and generates appropriate advice to users by employing decision-making methodology. The self-learning function of the system makes it work like an expert, continually modifying its content (knowledge) and generating advice that is promptly updated to accord with changes in the medical industry. PMID:12594099

  3. Il Risk Management nei progetti di investimento attraverso la Multi Criteria Decision Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elena Fregonara

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available Usually, we consider Multi Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA as a deterministic approach to support complex decisions, which involve multidisciplinary profiles. Furthermore, risk analysis is considered as an integral part of investments analysis, also in a probabilistic version. In this work, we are going to explore the applicability of probabilistic MCDA in supporting risk analysis practices (as a part of project management activities, in economic feasibility evaluation of the real estate investment projects. It is assumed a management approach based on adaptive approach instead of optimization approach; to operate in context characterized by the presence of risk/uncertainty components; that these components are able to perturb decision processes and strategic choices, conditioned by subjectivity/uncertainty of stakeholders and institutions in judgement definition phase (decision maker’s utility functions, criterion scores, ranking of alternatives, etc..

  4. Using of fuzzy and imitation models and cluster analysis for decision of marketing tasks

    OpenAIRE

    Borisova, Tetyana Myhaylivna; Bryndzya, Zinoviy Fedorovych

    2011-01-01

    Actuality of using of some economic-mathematical methods at the decision of marketing tasks is considered in the article. The examples of using of fuzzy evaluation, cluster analysis and imitation modelling in marketing are presented here.

  5. Verification and validation of the decision analysis model for assessment of TWRS waste treatment strategies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This document is the verification and validation final report for the Decision Analysis Model for Assessment of Tank Waste Remediation System Waste Treatment Strategies. This model is also known as the INSIGHT Model

  6. Spatial Vegetation Data for Mesa Verde National Park Vegetation Mapping Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Park Service, Department of the Interior — The Mesa Verde National Park Vegetation Map Database was developed as a primary product in the Mesa Verde National Park Vegetation Classification, Distribution, and...

  7. Decision Styles and Rationality: An Analysis of the Predictive Validity of the General Decision-Making Style Inventory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Curseu, Petru Lucian; Schruijer, Sandra G. L.

    2012-01-01

    This study investigates the relationship between the five decision-making styles evaluated by the General Decision-Making Style Inventory, indecisiveness, and rationality in decision making. Using a sample of 102 middle-level managers, the results show that the rational style positively predicts rationality in decision making and negatively…

  8. Developing shape analysis tools to assist complex spatial decision making

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mackey, H.E. [Westinghouse Savannah River Company, AIKEN, SC (United States); Ehler, G.B.; Cowen, D. [South Carolina Univ., Columbia, SC (United States)

    1996-05-31

    The objective of this research was to develop and implement a shape identification measure within a geographic information system, specifically one that incorporates analytical modeling for site location planning. The application that was developed incorporated a location model within a raster-based GIS, which helped address critical performance issues for the decision support system. Binary matrices, which approximate the object`s geometrical form, are passed over the grided data structure and allow identification of irregular and regularly shaped objects. Lastly, the issue of shape rotation is addressed and is resolved by constructing unique matrices corresponding to the object`s orientation

  9. Development of a decision support system for cost analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chae, Y M

    1989-01-01

    Korean hospitals are experiencing an increasing amount of financial difficulty due to government control of hospital rates since national health insurance has been implemented. The decision support system (DSS) was developed to provide cost and revenue information for the services rendered by each department in an effort to reduce costs. This information may be used to identify the causes of financial loss if cost exceeds revenue and to develop budgets for the next year. The DSS was developed using a micromainframe interface approach where the mainframe computer collects and summarises daily cost data and the micro computer allocates the data to each department. PMID:10304295

  10. Developing shape analysis tools to assist complex spatial decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The objective of this research was to develop and implement a shape identification measure within a geographic information system, specifically one that incorporates analytical modeling for site location planning. The application that was developed incorporated a location model within a raster-based GIS, which helped address critical performance issues for the decision support system. Binary matrices, which approximate the object's geometrical form, are passed over the grided data structure and allow identification of irregular and regularly shaped objects. Lastly, the issue of shape rotation is addressed and is resolved by constructing unique matrices corresponding to the object's orientation

  11. Proizvodno - potrošna bilanca svinjskog mesa u Hrvatskoj

    OpenAIRE

    Grgić, prof. dr. sc. Ivo; Zrakić, mag. ing. agr., Magdalena; Hadelan, doc. dr. sc. Lari

    2015-01-01

    Proizvodnja i potrošnja svinjskog mesa u mnogim je državama značajan dio njihove ukupne proizvodnje i potrošnje prehrambenih proizvoda. Potražnju za svinjskim mesom određuje porast stanovništva i njihovih dohodaka, a proizvodnju još i cijena stočne hrane, prvenstveno kukuruza. Najviše se svinjskog mesa proizvodi u Aziji (57,4%), zatim Europi (23,6%) te Sjevernoj i Južnoj Americi (17,4%). Najznačajniji svjetski proizvođači svinjskog mesa su Kina (51%), Sjedinjene američke države (SAD) (9%) i N...

  12. LANL Institutional Decision Support By Process Modeling and Analysis Group (AET-2)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Booth, Steven Richard [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2016-04-04

    AET-2 has expertise in process modeling, economics, business case analysis, risk assessment, Lean/Six Sigma tools, and decision analysis to provide timely decision support to LANS leading to continuous improvement. This capability is critical during the current tight budgetary environment as LANS pushes to identify potential areas of cost savings and efficiencies. An important arena is business systems and operations, where processes can impact most or all laboratory employees. Lab-wide efforts are needed to identify and eliminate inefficiencies to accomplish Director McMillan’s charge of “doing more with less.” LANS faces many critical and potentially expensive choices that require sound decision support to ensure success. AET-2 is available to provide this analysis support to expedite the decisions at hand.

  13. Using decision analysis techniques to deal with "unanswerable" questions in idiopathic thrombocytopenic purpura.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klaassen, Robert

    2003-12-01

    Idiopathic thrombocytopenic purpura (ITP) is a common disorder with rare adverse outcomes. This makes it a particularly difficult area in which to undertake conventional studies. An alternative method for solving clinical questions is decision analysis, which is in essence a computer-assisted synthesis of the literature. Using the example of a newly diagnosed ITP patient, the author attempts to answer the question of whether a bone marrow aspirate (BMA) is required prior to starting steroids. Using decision analysis methodology, the author determines that BMA is not essential prior to starting steroids. More importantly, three variables critical to the decision-making process are determined: the risk of death from the BMA procedure, the altered chance of survival for a patient with acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) inappropriately given steroids, and how sensitive the complete blood count is at determining the risk of ALL. This scenario demonstrates the value of decision analysis and lays the groundwork for future endeavors. PMID:14668643

  14. Environmental decision support system on base of geoinformational technologies for the analysis of nuclear accident consequences

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The report deals with description of the concept and prototype of environmental decision support system (EDSS) for the analysis of late off-site consequences of severe nuclear accidents and analysis, processing and presentation of spatially distributed radioecological data. General description of the available software, use of modem achievements of geostatistics and stochastic simulations for the analysis of spatial data are presented and discussed

  15. Econometric Analysis of Bulk Shipping: implications for investment strategies and financial decision-making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    S. Tsolakis

    2005-01-01

    textabstractThis thesis provides an econometric analysis of the bulk shipping markets and the implications for shipping investment and financial decision making. Chapter 1 sets the scene by providing a historic analysis of bulk shipping markets over the last 55 years. From this analysis, four shipp

  16. Visual cluster analysis in support of clinical decision intelligence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gotz, David; Sun, Jimeng; Cao, Nan; Ebadollahi, Shahram

    2011-01-01

    Electronic health records (EHRs) contain a wealth of information about patients. In addition to providing efficient and accurate records for individual patients, large databases of EHRs contain valuable information about overall patient populations. While statistical insights describing an overall population are beneficial, they are often not specific enough to use as the basis for individualized patient-centric decisions. To address this challenge, we describe an approach based on patient similarity which analyzes an EHR database to extract a cohort of patient records most similar to a specific target patient. Clusters of similar patients are then visualized to allow interactive visual refinement by human experts. Statistics are then extracted from the refined patient clusters and displayed to users. The statistical insights taken from these refined clusters provide personalized guidance for complex decisions. This paper focuses on the cluster refinement stage where an expert user must interactively (a) judge the quality and contents of automatically generated similar patient clusters, and (b) refine the clusters based on his/her expertise. We describe the DICON visualization tool which allows users to interactively view and refine multidimensional similar patient clusters. We also present results from a preliminary evaluation where two medical doctors provided feedback on our approach. PMID:22195102

  17. THE INTERACTIVE DECISION COMMITTEE FOR CHEMICAL TOXICITY ANALYSIS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kang, Chaeryon; Zhu, Hao; Wright, Fred A; Zou, Fei; Kosorok, Michael R

    2012-01-01

    We introduce the Interactive Decision Committee method for classification when high-dimensional feature variables are grouped into feature categories. The proposed method uses the interactive relationships among feature categories to build base classifiers which are combined using decision committees. A two-stage or a single-stage 5-fold cross-validation technique is utilized to decide the total number of base classifiers to be combined. The proposed procedure is useful for classifying biochemicals on the basis of toxicity activity, where the feature space consists of chemical descriptors and the responses are binary indicators of toxicity activity. Each descriptor belongs to at least one descriptor category. The support vector machine, the random forests, and the tree-based AdaBoost algorithms are utilized as classifier inducers. Forward selection is used to select the best combinations of the base classifiers given the number of base classifiers. Simulation studies demonstrate that the proposed method outperforms a single large, unaggregated classifier in the presence of interactive feature category information. We applied the proposed method to two toxicity data sets associated with chemical compounds. For these data sets, the proposed method improved classification performance for the majority of outcomes compared to a single large, unaggregated classifier. PMID:24415822

  18. Hierarchical Modelling of Flood Risk for Engineering Decision Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Custer, Rocco

    Societies around the world are faced with flood risk, prompting authorities and decision makers to manage risk to protect population and assets. With climate change, urbanisation and population growth, flood risk changes constantly, requiring flood risk management strategies that are flexible and...... robust. Traditional risk management solutions, e.g. dike construction, are not particularly flexible, as they are difficult to adapt to changing risk. Conversely, the recent concept of integrated flood risk management, entailing a combination of several structural and non-structural risk management...... measures, allows identifying flexible and robust flood risk management strategies. Based on it, this thesis investigates hierarchical flood protection systems, which encompass two, or more, hierarchically integrated flood protection structures on different spatial scales (e.g. dikes, local flood barriers...

  19. A method for analysis of nuclear power plant operators' decision making in simulated disturbance situations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    An analysis method has been developed for analysis of nuclear power plant operators' decision making in simulated disturbance situations. The aim of the analysis is to investigate operators' orientation which is expected to manifest itself as collective strategies in utilization of resources of decision making. Resources analyzed here are different information sources and, in addition, collaborative resources like communication and participation. The cognitive approach on the basis of the method considers decision making as collective construction of common interpretation of available information. Utilization of information is evaluated with respect to operative context. This is made with help of conceptualization of the disturbance situation from the decision making point of view and by construction of operative reference for activity. The latter means conceptualization of the situation from the safety point of view and also consideration of other boundary constraints of decision making, i.e. economical and technical aspects. The analysis method is intended to be used in routine simulator training in nuclear power plants. By virtue of its contextual and dynamical approach it makes the developing nature of activity visible. Cumulation and distribution of knowledge of decision making as developing activity, controlled by orientation and boundary constraints of process control, is expected to improve operational culture of a plant organization. (author). 2 refs, 1 fig

  20. Decision analysis for the siting of nuclear power plants: the relevance of multiattribute utility theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The necessity for improved decision making concerning the siting and licensing of major power facilities has been accelerated in the past decade by the increased environmental consciousness of the public and by the energy crisis. These problems are exceedingly complex due to their multiple objective nature, the many interest groups, the long-range time horizons, and the inherent uncertainties of the potential impacts of any decision. Along with the relatively objective economic and engineering concerns, clearly the more subjective factors involving safety, environmental, and social issues are crucial to the problem. Hence, the professional judgments and knowledge of experts in these areas should be utilized in analyses of siting decisions. Likewise, the preferences of the general public, as consumers, the utility companies, as builders and operators of power plant facilities, and environmentalists and the government must be accounted for in analyzing power plant siting and licensing issues. We advocate an approach for formally articulating the experts' judgments and the decision makers' preferences, both of which are clearly subjective, and processing these along with the more objective considerations in a logical manner to acquire the implications for decision making. The appropriateness and application of decision analysis for power plant location decisions is discussed and illustrated. Emphasis is placed on the assessment of the decision maker's preferences and tradeoffs concerning multiple objectives. (U.S.)

  1. Surface motion induced by nuclear explosions beneath Pahute Mesa. Part I. Halfbreak, Greeley, Scotch, Boxcar events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Results of surface motion studies conducted by Sandia Laboratories during seven underground nuclear explosions detonated beneath Pahute Mesa, Areas 19 and 20 of the Nevada Test Site, between 1966 and 1973 are reported. The report is divided into two parts of which this, Part I, includes (1) descriptions of the Pahute Mesa geological environment and of the purposes and instrumentation used in these programs (Chapter 1), and (2) description of four events, the data derived from each, and analysis of these data. These Part I events are HALFBEAK (Chapter 2), GREELEY (Chapter 3), SCOTCH (Chapter 4), and BOXCAR (Chapter 5) for all of which a nominally radial array of gage stations yielded data as a function of distance primarily, although in a few cases data were derived from stations at widely separated azimuths from the explosion. Results of the analysis indicate that average propagation velocity through the geologic column between the explosions and mesa surface was about 8800 ft/sec and that for horizontal distances greater than shot depth, refraction occurred within rhyolite flows with characteristic velocity of about 12,300 ft/sec. There is evidence which suggests possible deeper refraction at a velocity between 18,000 and 21,000 ft/sec. Only the verticle motion peaks follow a pattern amenable to regression analysis because geometrical effects influence horizontal motion amplitudes differently as horizontal distances increase. Particle velocities vary roughly as the inverse square of slant or radial range with exponent values ranging from -3.9 to -1.3. Displacements follow a similar pattern with exponents ranging from about -6 to -2. Displacement profiles at various times during the motion and displacement hodographs in the vertical-radial plane aid in understanding several local phenomena implied by individual motion records

  2. Análise de correspondência como instrumento para descrição do perfil do trabalhador da cultura de tomate de mesa em Goiás The correspondence analysis as instrument to analyze the profile of the worker in the tomato crop in the Goiás state, Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sueli Martins Freitas Alves

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available O cultivo do tomate de mesa em Goiás está estruturado numa proposta tecnológica baseada no uso intensivo de agrotóxicos, o que envolve riscos e danos potenciais à saúde dos trabalhadores. O objetivo deste trabalho foi utilizar a Análise de Correspondência Múltipla (ACM para explorar a perfil do trabalhador da cultura de tomate de mesa quanto ao uso de agrotóxicos. Para isso, foram obtidas informações sobre fatores socioeconômicos e demográficos, percepção de risco, uso de agrotóxicos, uso de equipamento de proteção individual (EPI e morbidade referida, por meio de questionário respondido por 96 trabalhadores da cultura de tomate de mesa, em seis municípios do Estado de Goiás. A Análise de Correspondência Múltipla (ACM possibilitou definir três grupos de trabalhadores. No grupo 1, os que responderam que já se intoxicaram com agrotóxicos e não usam EPI porque dificulta o trabalho ou porque não têm costume. No grupo 2, os que responderam que não se intoxicaram com agrotóxico relataram que usam somente algum tipo de EPI porque os consideram desconfortáveis ou por outros motivos. No grupo 3, os que relataram usar EPI completo e que moram em barracas de lona na lavoura de tomate. Foi possível fazer correspondência entre as modalidades da pesquisa, o que não seria possível com o uso de estatística descritiva.The tomato cropping in the Goiás state is structured under a technological proposal based on the intensive use of pesticides, which involves risks and potential damages to the workers' health. This study aimed to use the Multiple Correspondence Analysis (ACM to explore the worker's profile concerning to the use of pesticides in tomato crop. So, information about the socioeconomic and demographic factors, risk perception, pesticide uses, use of individual protection equipment (EPI and referred morbidity were obtained, by using a questionnaire applied to 96 workers in tomato crop, in six counties at the State

  3. Are multi-criteria decision making techniques useful for solving corporate finance problems? A bibliometric analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Guerrero-Baena, M. Dolores; Gómez-Limón, José Antonio; Fruet Cardozo, J. Vicente

    2014-01-01

    Corporate financial decision making processes (selection of investments and funding sources) are becoming increasingly complex because of the growing number of con icting criteria that need to be considered. The main aim of this paper is to perform a bibliometric analysis of the international research on the application of multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) techniques to corporate finance issues during the period 1980-2012. A total of 347 publications from the Scopus database have been com...

  4. Shaping the Conversation: A Secondary Analysis of Reproductive Decision-Making Among Black Mothers with HIV

    OpenAIRE

    Amutah, Ndidiamaka N.; Gifuni, Jacqueline; Wesley, Yvonne

    2016-01-01

    The purpose of this qualitative secondary data analysis is to examine the major influencers on mothers with HIV in their childbearing decisions, as well as how those influencers shape conversations with clinicians and health-care providers regarding HIV treatment and prevention. The original study gained insight into the reproductive decision-making of mothers with HIV. By analyzing a subsample of 15 interviews from an original cohort of 25 participants in the earlier study, three major theme...

  5. Bipolar and bivariate models in multi-criteria decision analysis: descriptive and constructive approaches

    OpenAIRE

    GRABISCH, Michel; Greco, Salvatore; Pirlot, Marc

    2008-01-01

    International audience Multi-criteria decision analysis studies decision problems in which the alternatives are evaluated on several dimensions or viewpoints. In the problems we consider in this paper, the scales used for assessing the alternatives with respect to a viewpoint are bipolar and univariate or unipolar and bivariate. In the former case, the scale is divided in two zones by a neutral point; a positive feeling is associated to the zone above the neutral point and a negative feeli...

  6. Committees versus individuals: an experimental analysis of monetary policy decision-making

    OpenAIRE

    Lombardelli, Clare; Proudman, James; Talbot, James

    2002-01-01

    The results of an experimental analysis of monetary policy decision-making under uncertainty are reported. A large sample of economically literate undergraduate and postgraduate students from the London School of Economics was used to play a simple monetary policy game, both as individuals and in committees of five players. The findings - that groups make better decisions than individuals - accord with previous work by Blinder and Morgan. An attempt was also made to establish why group decisi...

  7. Comparative analysis of public environmental decision-making processes: a variable-based analytical scheme

    OpenAIRE

    Newig, Jens; Adzersen, Ana; Challies, Edward; Fritsch, Oliver; Jager, Nicolas

    2013-01-01

    In this discussion paper, we introduce and outline in detail an analytical scheme - SCAPE - that has been developed over several years, that has been tested and iteratively refined through application to dozens of case studies, and which is currently in use for a case survey of several hundred case studies of public environmental decision-making. The ‘scheme for the comparative analysis of public environmental decision-making’ (SCAPE) facilitates the systematic comparison of cases of public d...

  8. Analysis of Centralized and Decentralized Communication and Decision Making for Cooperating Autonomous UAVs

    OpenAIRE

    Hagelin, Philip

    2011-01-01

    This thesis describes the work performed at Saab Aeronautics in Linkoping during 2011. The work was to study and develop distributed and centralized methods for analysis of the decision making in a group of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). In addition to this, some simple scenarios were studied and the work was implemented in C++ as the simulator ComDec. The literature review presented in the report provides knowledge of strategies for collaborative UAVs (communication and decision making), u...

  9. Benefits of customer profitability analysis reports in repeated budget allocation decision making.

    OpenAIRE

    Cardinaels, Eddy; Roodhooft, Filip; Warlop, Luk

    2000-01-01

    We study how decision makers learn to improve performance across repeated budget allocation decisions. The costing system they use should be able to provide information that is of incremental value over mere outcome feedback. We report an experiment demonstrating that customer profitability analysis (CPA) using activity based costing facilitates learning of the most appropriate allocation of a marketing budget among customers. In a difficult learning environment, participants receiving CPA in...

  10. BiodieselFAO: An Integrated Decision Support System for Investment Analysis in the Biodiesel Production Chain

    OpenAIRE

    Aziz Galvão da Silva Júnior

    2015-01-01

    In the short and medium terms, biofuels are the most viable alternative to reduce the environmental impact of fossil fuels. The recent controversy over the competition between biofuels and food production increases the complexity of investment decisions in the biodiesel production chain. In this context, decision support tools are highly relevant. The purpose of this article is to describe the BiodieselFAO using the Unified Modeling Language (UML). An integrated analysis considering both agri...

  11. Decision and decision makers

    OpenAIRE

    Anuta Porutiu

    2010-01-01

    In the current economic context, decision making requires complex and multiple actions on the part of the policy makers, who are more challenged than in previous situations, due to the crisis that we are facing. Decision problems cannot be solved by focusing on manager’s own experience or intuition, but require constant adaptation of the methods used effectively in the past to new challenges. Thus, a systemic analysis and modeling of arising issues is required, resulting in the stringent use ...

  12. Application of decision analysis in debt-for-environment swaps

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Abu-Taleb, M.F. [Department of Civil Engineering, Applied Science University, PO Box 40, 11831, Amman (Jordan)

    2003-03-01

    Through a mandate by the Government of Jordan, a debt-for-environment swap initiative was designed to mobilize resources for programs that improve the Jordanian environment within a broad spectrum of conservation, water supply, sanitation, resource management, ecological protection, environmental education, and pollution abatement technology. As a debtor country, Jordan faces a severe debt burden (with debt-per-capita levels among the highest in the world), and is facing difficulty obtaining further credit to fill the gaps in hard currency requirements for imports. Debt swap converts outstanding debt obligations into local currency for approved national environmental programs and projects. With creditor countries favoring debt swap over debt forgiveness in general, and debt swap for environmental technology projects in particular, the initiative was launched to ensure both fiscal and environmental quality benefits. With donors requiring that project development and selection procedures be fair, unbiased, and transparent, a mechanism for ultimate selection was developed by the author solely for the initiative based on multiple objective optimization techniques. This paper formulates the necessary decision-analytic principles for the initiative and presents a discrete, defensible, and transparent model for selection of projects. The model ranks the projects in terms of environment and economic objectives and can be used for other generalized applications. (orig.)

  13. Decision analysis in clinical radiology by means of Markov modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Markov models (Multistate transition models) are mathematical tools to simulate a cohort of individuals followed over time to assess the prognosis resulting from different strategies. They are applied on the assumption that persons are in one of a finite number of states of health (Markov states). Each condition is given a transition probability as well as an incremental value. Probabilities may be chosen constant or varying over time due to predefined rules. Time horizon is divided into equal increments (Markov cycles). The model calculates quality-adjusted life expectancy employing real-life units and values and summing up the length of time spent in each health state adjusted for objective outcomes and subjective appraisal. This sort of modeling prognosis for a given patient is analogous to utility in common decision trees. Markov models can be evaluated by matrix algebra, probabilistic cohort simulation and Monte Carlo simulation. They have been applied to assess the relative benefits and risks of a limited number of diagnostic and therapeutic procedures in radiology. More interventions should be submitted to Markov analyses in order to elucidate their cost-effectiveness. (orig.)

  14. Cost-benefit analysis in decision making for diagnostic radiology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper reviews certain current concepts and methods relating to benefit-risk analysis, in terms of economic costs and raidation risks to health, in relation to the benefits from diagnostic radiology in clinical medicine

  15. A critical narrative analysis of shared decision-making in acute inpatient mental health care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stacey, Gemma; Felton, Anne; Morgan, Alastair; Stickley, Theo; Willis, Martin; Diamond, Bob; Houghton, Philip; Johnson, Beverley; Dumenya, John

    2016-01-01

    Shared decision-making (SDM) is a high priority in healthcare policy and is complementary to the recovery philosophy in mental health care. This agenda has been operationalised within the Values-Based Practice (VBP) framework, which offers a theoretical and practical model to promote democratic interprofessional approaches to decision-making. However, these are limited by a lack of recognition of the implications of power implicit within the mental health system. This study considers issues of power within the context of decision-making and examines to what extent decisions about patients' care on acute in-patient wards are perceived to be shared. Focus groups were conducted with 46 mental health professionals, service users, and carers. The data were analysed using the framework of critical narrative analysis (CNA). The findings of the study suggested each group constructed different identity positions, which placed them as inside or outside of the decision-making process. This reflected their view of themselves as best placed to influence a decision on behalf of the service user. In conclusion, the discourse of VBP and SDM needs to take account of how differentials of power and the positioning of speakers affect the context in which decisions take place. PMID:26833106

  16. Barriers And Profits Of Distan ce Education In Operations Research Based Decision Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tomasz Szapiro

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Distance education and blended learning allow universities to lower costs, have more return on economies of scale, better control educational process and provide higher quality services for students. This process however requires specialized software to be used by a university. The paper tackles issues related with this approach and presents guidelines for construction of a framework for creating web-based education support software in quantitative area – the meta-framework that al lows for a rapid construction of web-based educational decision analysis software. The framework design in paper covers three aspect: (1 information system modeling, (2 decision problem modeling and (3 teaching process modeling. The information system modeling includes system architecture, servers, programming languages and technical design. The decision problem modeling prov ides means to present an abstract decision problem (and more generally - a problem where quantitative methods can be used and to model interaction between software and decision maker (i.e. a student learning a decision algorithm. Teaching process modeling includes support for linear teaching algorithm in the decision making process, further this can be extended into non-linear and hybrid teaching algorithms. As a proof of concept a working framework prototype named Combine! will be presented. The software’s usefulness was evaluated through a survey carried out on 234 students at Warsaw School of Economics.

  17. A decision analysis approach for risk management of near-earth objects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Robert C.; Jones, Thomas D.; Chapman, Clark R.

    2014-10-01

    Risk management of near-Earth objects (NEOs; e.g., asteroids and comets) that can potentially impact Earth is an important issue that took on added urgency with the Chelyabinsk event of February 2013. Thousands of NEOs large enough to cause substantial damage are known to exist, although only a small fraction of these have the potential to impact Earth in the next few centuries. The probability and location of a NEO impact are subject to complex physics and great uncertainty, and consequences can range from minimal to devastating, depending upon the size of the NEO and location of impact. Deflecting a potential NEO impactor would be complex and expensive, and inter-agency and international cooperation would be necessary. Such deflection campaigns may be risky in themselves, and mission failure may result in unintended consequences. The benefits, risks, and costs of different potential NEO risk management strategies have not been compared in a systematic fashion. We present a decision analysis framework addressing this hazard. Decision analysis is the science of informing difficult decisions. It is inherently multi-disciplinary, especially with regard to managing catastrophic risks. Note that risk analysis clarifies the nature and magnitude of risks, whereas decision analysis guides rational risk management. Decision analysis can be used to inform strategic, policy, or resource allocation decisions. First, a problem is defined, including the decision situation and context. Second, objectives are defined, based upon what the different decision-makers and stakeholders (i.e., participants in the decision) value as important. Third, quantitative measures or scales for the objectives are determined. Fourth, alternative choices or strategies are defined. Fifth, the problem is then quantitatively modeled, including probabilistic risk analysis, and the alternatives are ranked in terms of how well they satisfy the objectives. Sixth, sensitivity analyses are performed in

  18. Applying rigorous decision analysis methodology to optimization of a tertiary recovery project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper reports that the intent of this study was to rigorously look at all of the possible expansion, investment, operational, and CO2 purchase/recompression scenarios (over 2500) to yield a strategy that would maximize net present value of the CO2 project at the Rangely Weber Sand Unit. Traditional methods of project management, which involve analyzing large numbers of single case economic evaluations, was found to be too cumbersome and inaccurate for an analysis of this scope. The decision analysis methodology utilized a statistical approach which resulted in a range of economic outcomes. Advantages of the decision analysis methodology included: a more organized approach to classification of decisions and uncertainties; a clear sensitivity method to identify the key uncertainties; an application of probabilistic analysis through the decision tree; and a comprehensive display of the range of possible outcomes for communication to decision makers. This range made it possible to consider the upside and downside potential of the options and to weight these against the Unit's strategies. Savings in time and manpower required to complete the study were also realized

  19. Aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage prognostic decision-making algorithm using classification and regression tree analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lo, Benjamin W. Y.; Fukuda, Hitoshi; Angle, Mark; Teitelbaum, Jeanne; Macdonald, R. Loch; Farrokhyar, Forough; Thabane, Lehana; Levine, Mitchell A. H.

    2016-01-01

    Background: Classification and regression tree analysis involves the creation of a decision tree by recursive partitioning of a dataset into more homogeneous subgroups. Thus far, there is scarce literature on using this technique to create clinical prediction tools for aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH). Methods: The classification and regression tree analysis technique was applied to the multicenter Tirilazad database (3551 patients) in order to create the decision-making algorithm. In order to elucidate prognostic subgroups in aneurysmal SAH, neurologic, systemic, and demographic factors were taken into account. The dependent variable used for analysis was the dichotomized Glasgow Outcome Score at 3 months. Results: Classification and regression tree analysis revealed seven prognostic subgroups. Neurological grade, occurrence of post-admission stroke, occurrence of post-admission fever, and age represented the explanatory nodes of this decision tree. Split sample validation revealed classification accuracy of 79% for the training dataset and 77% for the testing dataset. In addition, the occurrence of fever at 1-week post-aneurysmal SAH is associated with increased odds of post-admission stroke (odds ratio: 1.83, 95% confidence interval: 1.56–2.45, P decision making. This prognostic decision-making algorithm also shed light on the complex interactions between a number of risk factors in determining outcome after aneurysmal SAH. PMID:27512607

  20. Decision and decision makers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anuta Porutiu

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available In the current economic context, decision making requires complex and multiple actions on the part of the policy makers, who are more challenged than in previous situations, due to the crisis that we are facing. Decision problems cannot be solved by focusing on manager’s own experience or intuition, but require constant adaptation of the methods used effectively in the past to new challenges. Thus, a systemic analysis and modeling of arising issues is required, resulting in the stringent use of Decision Support Systems (DSS, as a necessity in a competitive environment. DSS optimize the situation by getting a timely decision because the decision making process must acquire, process and interpret an even larger amount of data in the shortest possible time. A solution for this purpose is the artificial intelligence systems, in this case Decision Support Systems (DSS, used in a wider area due to expansion of all the new information technologies in decisionmaking processes. These substantial cyber innovations have led to a radical shift in the relationship between enterprise success and quality of decisions made by managers.

  1. Learning from examples - Generation and evaluation of decision trees for software resource analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Selby, Richard W.; Porter, Adam A.

    1988-01-01

    A general solution method for the automatic generation of decision (or classification) trees is investigated. The approach is to provide insights through in-depth empirical characterization and evaluation of decision trees for software resource data analysis. The trees identify classes of objects (software modules) that had high development effort. Sixteen software systems ranging from 3,000 to 112,000 source lines were selected for analysis from a NASA production environment. The collection and analysis of 74 attributes (or metrics), for over 4,700 objects, captured information about the development effort, faults, changes, design style, and implementation style. A total of 9,600 decision trees were automatically generated and evaluated. The trees correctly identified 79.3 percent of the software modules that had high development effort or faults, and the trees generated from the best parameter combinations correctly identified 88.4 percent of the modules on the average.

  2. Multi-attribute utility analysis--a major decision aid technique

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The multi-attribute utility analysis (MUA) is an applied decision aid technique within the overall framework of multi-criteria analysis. The technique is used for the quantitative appraisal of decision alternatives in complex programmes, projects or policies with reference to explicit, defined criteria or objectives to assess their suitability or desirability in the decision-making process. In the past, programmes, projects or policies were judged and assessed on a single criterion--finance--or, at best, on a very limited set of criteria and managed on an informal, intuitive basis. That simplistic approach currently falls short of expectations of the public or the demands of the present-day projects where complexity and diversity have grown enormously and the decision criteria have become multifarious. This MUA technique helps to analyse decision alternatives on a multi-criteria basis and ranks them from the most preferred to the least preferred for easier assimilation by decision-makers. The technique was used by the US Department of Energy in the mid-1980s in selecting suitable site(s) out of five nominated sites for the disposal of high-level radioactive wastes. It is increasingly being used by national organisations in the UK and abroad. (author)

  3. Cost-benefit analysis in decision making for diagnostic radiology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Diagnostic medical radiation represents the largest source of man-made radiation exposure to the general population. A brief review is given of certain current concepts and methods relating to benefit-risk analysis, in terms of economic costs and radiation risks to health, in relation to the benefits from diagnostic radiology in clinical medicine. (U.K.)

  4. Decision analysis for the exploration of gas reserves: merging todim and thor

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos Francisco Simões Gomes

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available This article approaches the problem of selecting the non-dominated alternative for the destination of the natural gas reserves in the Mexilhão field in the Santos Basin, Brazil. Major aims of the case study reported here were to create a mechanism for assisting in the process of analyzing and selecting the best options for the destination of natural gas, and to enable the decision agent to choose the investment options best aligned to the expectations and objectives observed in the company strategies. The decision analysis employed in the study made use of the TODIM method and the THOR multicriteria decision support system. The application of both demonstrated that a decision analytic framework can be extremely useful when recommending options for upstream projects, owing to the fact that it can clearly identify the most important alternatives in the face of the scenarios tested and in relation to the criteria expressed.

  5. Accelerating policy decisions to adopt haemophilus influenzae type B vaccine: a global, multivariable analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jessica C Shearer

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Adoption of new and underutilized vaccines by national immunization programs is an essential step towards reducing child mortality. Policy decisions to adopt new vaccines in high mortality countries often lag behind decisions in high-income countries. Using the case of Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib vaccine, this paper endeavors to explain these delays through the analysis of country-level economic, epidemiological, programmatic and policy-related factors, as well as the role of the Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunisation (GAVI Alliance. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Data for 147 countries from 1990 to 2007 were analyzed in accelerated failure time models to identify factors that are associated with the time to decision to adopt Hib vaccine. In multivariable models that control for Gross National Income, region, and burden of Hib disease, the receipt of GAVI support speeded the time to decision by a factor of 0.37 (95% CI 0.18-0.76, or 63%. The presence of two or more neighboring country adopters accelerated decisions to adopt by a factor of 0.50 (95% CI 0.33-0.75. For each 1% increase in vaccine price, decisions to adopt are delayed by a factor of 1.02 (95% CI 1.00-1.04. Global recommendations and local studies were not associated with time to decision. CONCLUSIONS: This study substantiates previous findings related to vaccine price and presents new evidence to suggest that GAVI eligibility is associated with accelerated decisions to adopt Hib vaccine. The influence of neighboring country decisions was also highly significant, suggesting that approaches to support the adoption of new vaccines should consider supply- and demand-side factors.

  6. Integrating risk analysis and multi-criteria decision support under uncertainty in electricity distribution system asset management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Asset managers in electricity distribution companies generally recognize the need and the challenge of adding structure and a higher degree of formal analysis into the increasingly complex asset management decisions. This implies improving the present asset management practice by making the best use of the available data and expert knowledge and by adopting new methods for risk analysis and decision support and nevertheless better ways to document the decisions made. This paper discusses methods for integrating risk analysis and multi-criteria decision support under uncertainty in electricity distribution system asset management. The focus is on how to include the different company objectives and risk analyses into a structured decision framework when deciding how to handle the physical assets of the electricity distribution network. This paper presents an illustrative example of decision support for maintenance and reinvestment strategies based, using expert knowledge, simplified risk analyses and multi-criteria decision analysis under uncertainty.

  7. Use of stochastic multi-criteria decision analysis to support sustainable management of contaminated sediments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sparrevik, Magnus; Barton, David N; Bates, Mathew E; Linkov, Igor

    2012-02-01

    Sustainable management of contaminated sediments requires careful prioritization of available resources and focuses on efforts to optimize decisions that consider environmental, economic, and societal aspects simultaneously. This may be achieved by combining different analytical approaches such as risk analysis (RA), life cycle analysis (LCA), multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA), and economic valuation methods. We propose the use of stochastic MCDA based on outranking algorithms to implement integrative sustainability strategies for sediment management. In this paper we use the method to select the best sediment management alternatives for the dibenzo-p-dioxin and -furan (PCDD/F) contaminated Grenland fjord in Norway. In the analysis, the benefits of health risk reductions and socio-economic benefits from removing seafood health advisories are evaluated against the detriments of remedial costs and life cycle environmental impacts. A value-plural based weighing of criteria is compared to criteria weights mimicking traditional cost-effectiveness (CEA) and cost-benefit (CBA) analyses. Capping highly contaminated areas in the inner or outer fjord is identified as the most preferable remediation alternative under all criteria schemes and the results are confirmed by a probabilistic sensitivity analysis. The proposed methodology can serve as a flexible framework for future decision support and can be a step toward more sustainable decision making for contaminated sediment management. It may be applicable to the broader field of ecosystem restoration for trade-off analysis between ecosystem services and restoration costs. PMID:22191941

  8. Econometric Analysis of Bulk Shipping: implications for investment strategies and financial decision-making

    OpenAIRE

    Tsolakis, S.

    2005-01-01

    textabstractThis thesis provides an econometric analysis of the bulk shipping markets and the implications for shipping investment and financial decision making. Chapter 1 sets the scene by providing a historic analysis of bulk shipping markets over the last 55 years. From this analysis, four shipping markets (freight, newbuilding, second-hand and demolition) are distinguished as well as a fifth one (ship finance) that acts as a facilitator to the other four. Also, with the help of correlatio...

  9. An Integrated Approach with Group Decision-Making for Strategy Selection in SWOT Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    İhsan Yüksel

    2012-01-01

    The main aim of this study was to improve the analytical dimension of SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats) analysis with group decision-making, which underlines the analysis of internal and external environments that in turn, will improve the definition of corporate strategy within the strategic planning process. The main issue of the study was how to select the most appropriate strategy by taking into consideration different effects of each factor of SWOT analysis on strat...

  10. A critical review and meta-analysis of the unconscious thought effect in medical decision making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miguel A. Vadillo

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Based on research on the increasingly popular unconscious thought effect (UTE, it has been suggested that physicians might make better diagnostic decisions after a period of distraction than after an equivalent amount of time of conscious deliberation. However, published attempts to demonstrate the UTE in medical decision making have yielded inconsistent results. In the present study, we report the results of a meta-analysis of all the available evidence on the UTE in medical decisions made by expert and novice clinicians. The meta-analysis failed to find a significant contribution of unconscious thought to the accuracy of medical decisions. This result cannot be easily attributed to any of the potential moderators of the UTE that have been discussed in the literature. Furthermore, a Bayes Factor analysis shows that most experimental conditions provide positive support for the null hypothesis, suggesting that these null results do not reflect a simple lack of statistical power. We suggest ways in which new studies could usefully provide further evidence on the UTE. Unless future research shows otherwise, the recommendation of using unconscious thought to improve medical decisions lacks empirical support.

  11. A critical review and meta-analysis of the unconscious thought effect in medical decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vadillo, Miguel A; Kostopoulou, Olga; Shanks, David R

    2015-01-01

    Based on research on the increasingly popular unconscious thought effect (UTE), it has been suggested that physicians might make better diagnostic decisions after a period of distraction than after an equivalent amount of time of conscious deliberation. However, published attempts to demonstrate the UTE in medical decision making have yielded inconsistent results. In the present study, we report the results of a meta-analysis of all the available evidence on the UTE in medical decisions made by expert and novice clinicians. The meta-analysis failed to find a significant contribution of unconscious thought (UT) to the accuracy of medical decisions. This result cannot be easily attributed to any of the potential moderators of the UTE that have been discussed in the literature. Furthermore, a Bayes factor analysis shows that most experimental conditions provide positive support for the null hypothesis, suggesting that these null results do not reflect a simple lack of statistical power. We suggest ways in which new studies could usefully provide further evidence on the UTE. Unless future research shows otherwise, the recommendation of using UT to improve medical decisions lacks empirical support. PMID:26042068

  12. Quantification of a decision-making failure probability of the accident management using cognitive analysis model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In the nuclear power plant, much knowledge is acquired through probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) of a severe accident, and accident management (AM) is prepared. It is necessary to evaluate the effectiveness of AM using the decision-making failure probability of an emergency organization, operation failure probability of operators, success criteria of AM and reliability of AM equipments in PSA. However, there has been no suitable qualification method for PSA so far to obtain the decision-making failure probability, because the decision-making failure of an emergency organization treats the knowledge based error. In this work, we developed a new method for quantification of the decision-making failure probability of an emergency organization using cognitive analysis model, which decided an AM strategy, in a nuclear power plant at the severe accident, and tried to apply it to a typical pressurized water reactor (PWR) plant. As a result: (1) It could quantify the decision-making failure probability adjusted to PSA for general analysts, who do not necessarily possess professional human factors knowledge, by choosing the suitable value of a basic failure probability and an error-factor. (2) The decision-making failure probabilities of six AMs were in the range of 0.23 to 0.41 using the screening evaluation method and in the range of 0.10 to 0.19 using the detailed evaluation method as the result of trial evaluation based on severe accident analysis of a typical PWR plant, and a result of sensitivity analysis of the conservative assumption, failure probability decreased about 50%. (3) The failure probability using the screening evaluation method exceeded that using detailed evaluation method by 99% of probability theoretically, and the failure probability of AM in this study exceeded 100%. From this result, it was shown that the decision-making failure probability was more conservative than the detailed evaluation method, and the screening evaluation method satisfied

  13. A decision analysis framework for stakeholder involvement and learning in groundwater management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. P. Karjalainen

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA methods are increasingly used to facilitate both rigorous analysis and stakeholder involvement in natural and water resource planning. Decision making in that context is often complex and multi-faceted with numerous trade-offs between social, environmental and economic impacts. However, practical applications of decision-support methods are often too technically oriented and hard to use, understand or interpret for all participants. The learning of participants in these processes is seldom examined, even though successful deliberation depends on learning. This paper analyzes the potential of an interactive MCDA framework, the decision analysis interview (DAI approach, for facilitating stakeholder involvement and learning in groundwater management. It evaluates the results of an MCDA process in assessing land-use management alternatives in a Finnish esker aquifer area where conflicting land uses affect the groundwater body and dependent ecosystems. In the assessment process, emphasis was placed on the interactive role of the MCDA tool in facilitating stakeholder participation and learning. The results confirmed that the structured decision analysis framework can foster learning and collaboration in a process where disputes and diverse interests are represented. Computer-aided interviews helped the participants to see how their preferences affected the desirability and ranking of alternatives. During the process, the participants' knowledge and preferences evolved as they assess their initial knowledge with the help of fresh scientific information. The decision analysis process led to the opening of a dialogue, showing the overall picture of the problem context, and the critical issues for the further process.

  14. Addressing preference heterogeneity in public health policy by combining Cluster Analysis and Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaltoft, Mette Kjer; Turner, Robin; Cunich, Michelle;

    2015-01-01

    population in relation to the importance assigned to relevant criteria. It involves combining Cluster Analysis (CA), to generate the subgroup sets of preferences, with Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA), to provide the policy framework into which the clustered preferences are entered. We employ three...

  15. Decisions, Science, and Values: Crafting Regulatory Alternatives Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malloy, Timothy; Blake, Ann; Linkov, Igor; Sinsheimer, Peter

    2015-12-01

    Emerging "prevention-based" approaches to chemical regulation seek to minimize the use of toxic chemicals by mandating or directly incentivizing the adoption of viable safer alternative chemicals or processes. California and Maine are beginning to implement such programs, requiring manufacturers of consumer products containing certain chemicals of concern to identify and evaluate potential safer alternatives. In the European Union, the REACH program imposes similar obligations on manufacturers of certain substances of very high concern. Effective prevention-based regulation requires regulatory alternatives analysis (RAA), a methodology for comparing and evaluating the regulated chemical or process and its alternatives across a range of relevant criteria. RAA has both public and private dimensions. To a significant degree, alternatives analysis is an aspect of product design; that is, the process by which private industry designs the goods it sells. Accordingly, an RAA method should reflect the attributes of well-crafted product design tools used by businesses. But RAA adds health and environmental objectives to the mix of concerns taken into account by the product designer. Moreover, as part of a prevention-based regulatory regime, it implicates important public values such as legitimacy, equity, public engagement, and accountability. Thus, an RAA should reflect both private standards and public values, and be evaluated against them. This article adopts that perspective, identifying an integrated set of design principles for RAA, and illustrating the application of those principles. PMID:26299695

  16. Does a reactor need a safety backfit? Case study on communicating decision and risk analysis information to managers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    An approach to communicating decision and risk analysis findings to managers is illustrated in a real case context. This article consists essentially of a report prepared for senior managers of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission to help them make a reactor safety decision. It illustrates the communication of decision analysis findings relating to technical risks, costs, and benefits in support of a major risk management decision: whether or not to require a safety backfit. Its focus is on the needs of decision makers, and it introduces some novel communication devices

  17. Spiral-Bevel-Gear Damage Detected Using Decision Fusion Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dempsey, Paula J.; Handschuh, Robert F.

    2003-01-01

    Helicopter transmission integrity is critical to helicopter safety because helicopters depend on the power train for propulsion, lift, and flight maneuvering. To detect impending transmission failures, the ideal diagnostic tools used in the health-monitoring system would provide real-time health monitoring of the transmission, demonstrate a high level of reliable detection to minimize false alarms, and provide end users with clear information on the health of the system without requiring them to interpret large amounts of sensor data. A diagnostic tool for detecting damage to spiral bevel gears was developed. (Spiral bevel gears are used in helicopter transmissions to transfer power between nonparallel intersecting shafts.) Data fusion was used to integrate two different monitoring technologies, oil debris analysis and vibration, into a health-monitoring system for detecting surface fatigue pitting damage on the gears.

  18. Information Security Management: ANP Based Approach for Risk Analysis and Decision Making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Brožová

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available In information systems security, the objectives of risk analysis process are to help to identify new threats and vulnerabilities, to estimate their business impact and to provide a dynamic set of tools to control the security level of the information system. The identification of risk factors as well as the estimation of their business impact require tools for assessment of risk with multi-value scales according to different stakeholders’ point of view. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to model risk analysis decision making problem using semantic network to develop the decision network and the Analytical Network Process (ANP that allows solving complex problems taking into consideration quantitative and qualitative data. As a decision support technique ANP also measures the dependency among risk factors related to the elicitation of individual judgement. An empirical study involving the Forestry Company is used to illustrate the relevance of ANP.

  19. Winning at litigation through decision analysis creating and executing winning strategies in any litigation or dispute

    CERN Document Server

    Celona, John

    2016-01-01

    This book is the first in-depth guide to applying the philosophy, theory, and methods of decision analysis to creating and executing winning legal strategies. With explanations that progress from introductory to advanced and practice problems at the end of each chapter, this is a book the reader will want to use and refer to for years to come. Practicing decision analysts, operations research and management science students, attorneys and law students will find this book an invaluable addition to their knowledge and skills. John Celona has over three decades of experience in teaching and applying decision analysis. John lectures in the School of Engineering at Stanford University and is on faculty at The Stanford Center for Professional Development, the American Course on Drug Development and Regulatory Sciences, and the Academy of the American Society for Healthcare Risk Management.

  20. The systematic and flexible framework of value - Impact analysis with a decision support concept

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Generally, computer codes have been used to solve structured problems. Previous reports do not refer to the possibility of using computer codes to solve problems in VIA because VIA usually deals with un-structured problems. The authors believe that those problems can be solved with newly developed VIA technology, based on the decision-support system concept that was mentioned earlier. The authors, after witnessing the capabilities of decision-support systems to solve un-structured problems in fields outside of nuclear power plant analysis, believe that a decision support system can be adapted to serve VIA purposes. The VIADUCT is a computer code which has been proposed to deal with the un-structured problems. It is argued that the proposed VIA and its accompanying methodology is useful for decisions related to design improvements, but is less useful in making regulatory decisions. This is due to the use of general data instead of plant specific data. But when the computer code is sufficiently improved, the proposed methodology will be useful in making regulatory decisions

  1. Multi-criteria decision analysis and environmental risk assessment for nanomaterials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nanotechnology is a broad and complex discipline that holds great promise for innovations that can benefit mankind. Yet, one must not overlook the wide array of factors involved in managing nanomaterial development, ranging from the technical specifications of the material to possible adverse effects in humans. Other opportunities to evaluate benefits and risks are inherent in environmental health and safety (EHS) issues related to nanotechnology. However, there is currently no structured approach for making justifiable and transparent decisions with explicit trade-offs between the many factors that need to be taken into account. While many possible decision-making approaches exist, we believe that multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is a powerful and scientifically sound decision analytical framework for nanomaterial risk assessment and management. This paper combines state-of-the-art research in MCDA methods applicable to nanotechnology with a hypothetical case study for nanomaterial management. The example shows how MCDA application can balance societal benefits against unintended side effects and risks, and how it can also bring together multiple lines of evidence to estimate the likely toxicity and risk of nanomaterials given limited information on physical and chemical properties. The essential contribution of MCDA is to link this performance information with decision criteria and weightings elicited from scientists and managers, allowing visualization and quantification of the trade-offs involved in the decision-making process

  2. Conflict analysis and management: Public participation in waste management decision making

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wiedemann, P.M.; Femers, S.

    1990-09-01

    The purpose of this study was to analyze the problems which arise as a result of public participation in decisions concerning waste disposal facilities. The authors approached this analysis not from the point of view that public participation itself is the problem, but that an understanding of the problems which can and do arise as a result of public participation is a first step toward its improved use in effective decision-making. Public participation must be viewed as a means, not as a goal. Unless it is approached in the right way, it will not lead to a good solution and furthermore, may create additional problems in and of itself. Conflict management is a three-pronged approach for improving the quality of decision-making: (1) empowerment of the public; (2) a procedure which will lead to a 'good' decision; and (3) follow-up considerations to ensure commitment by all parties to the final decision. These three points were developed conceptually in section IV and incorporated into a specific decision-making procedure in section V. (orig.).

  3. Applications of Geophysical and Geological Techniques to Identify Areas for Detailed Exploration in Black Mesa Basin, Arizona

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    George, S.; Reeves, T.K.; Sharma, Bijon; Szpakiewicz, M.

    1999-04-29

    A recent report submitted to the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) (NIPER/BDM-0226) discussed in considerable detail, the geology, structure, tectonics, and history of oil production activities in the Black Mesa basin in Arizona. As part of the final phase of wrapping up research in the Black Mesa basin, the results of a few additional geophysical studies conducted on structure, stratigraphy, petrophysical analysis, and oil and gas occurrences in the basin are presented here. A second objective of this study is to determine the effectiveness of relatively inexpensive, noninvasive techniques like gravity or magnetic in obtaining information on structure and tectonics in sufficient detail for hydrocarbon exploration, particularly by using the higher resolution satellite data now becoming available to the industry.

  4. Análise exploratória de adoçantes de mesa via espectroscopia no infravermelho (FTIR e análise por componentes principais (ACP Exploratory analysis of commercial sweeteners by infrared spectroscopy (FTIR and principal component analysis (PCA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adriana Tozetto

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available Nos últimos vinte anos, o consumo de alimentos diet e light tem aumentado sistematicamente, o que tem propiciado o constante desenvolvimento de produtos desse gênero. Grande ênfase tem sido dada àqueles produtos que substituem sacarose por edulcorantes de baixos conteúdos calóricos ou não calóricos. Seguindo esta tendência, adoçantes de mesa têm sido desenvolvidos variando-se amplamente o veículo e o tipo de edulcorante empregado. Neste trabalho, a análise de componentes principais associada à espectroscopia na região do infravermelho médio foi utilizada com sucesso para diferenciar os veículos empregados na produção destes adoçantes, sendo que esta metodologia quimiométrica reduziu o espaço dimensional para dois fatores, explicando cerca de 82-% da variância total dos dados. As variáveis responsáveis por esta discriminação estão localizadas na região da impressão digital do espectro de infravermelho (752,2 a 1284,5 cm-1. A análise exploratória mostrou-se útil para a visualização destes dados, gerando informações semiquantitativas para os adoçantes constituídos por lactose/aspartame, observações que seriam dificilmente visualizadas sem o recurso quimiométrico aplicado.In the last twenty years, the consumption of diet and light foods has grown steadily, leading to the constant development of such products. Much emphasis has been placed on products that replace sucrose with sweeteners of low or zero calorie content. The development of new commercial sweeteners illustrates this tendency. In this work, principal component analysis and infrared spectroscopy were used to successfully differentiate the vehicles (mediums employed in the production of sweeteners. This chemometric methodology reduced the dimensional space to two factors, accounting for 82% of the total variance of the data. The variables responsible for this discrimination were localized in the fingerprint region of the infrared spectrum (752.2 to

  5. tropical cyclone risk analysis: a decisive role of its track

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chelsea Nam, C.; Park, Doo-Sun R.; Ho, Chang-Hoi

    2016-04-01

    The tracks of 85 tropical cyclones (TCs) that made landfall to South Korea for the period 1979-2010 are classified into four clusters by using a fuzzy c-means clustering method. The four clusters are characterized by 1) east-short, 2) east-long, 3) west-long, and 4) west-short based on the moving routes around Korean peninsula. We conducted risk comparison analysis for these four clusters regarding their hazards, exposure, and damages. Here, hazard parameters are calculated from two different sources independently, one from the best-track data (BT) and the other from the 60 weather stations over the country (WS). The results show distinct characteristics of the four clusters in terms of the hazard parameters and economic losses (EL), suggesting that there is a clear track-dependency in the overall TC risk. It is appeared that whether there occurred an "effective collision" overweighs the intensity of the TC per se. The EL ranking did not agree with the BT parameters (maximum wind speed, central pressure, or storm radius), but matches to WS parameter (especially, daily accumulated rainfall and TC-influenced period). The west-approaching TCs (i.e. west-long and west-short clusters) generally recorded larger EL than the east-approaching TCs (i.e. east-short and east-long clusters), although the east-long clusters are the strongest in BT point of view. This can be explained through the spatial distribution of the WS parameters and the regional EL maps corresponding to it. West-approaching TCs accompanied heavy rainfall on the southern regions with the helps of the topographic effect on their tracks, and of the extended stay on the Korean Peninsula in their extratropical transition, that were not allowed to the east-approaching TCs. On the other hand, some regions had EL that are not directly proportional to the hazards, and this is partly attributed to spatial disparity in wealth and vulnerability. Correlation analysis also revealed the importance of rainfall; daily

  6. The Decision Analysis Interview Approach in the Collaborative Management of a Large Regulated Water Course

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marttunen, Mika; Hämäläinen, Raimo P.

    2008-12-01

    There are always conflicting goals in the management of large water courses. However, by involving stakeholders actively in the planning and decision-making processes, it is possible to work together toward commonly acceptable solutions. In this article, we describe how we applied interactive multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) in a collaborative process which aimed at an ecologically, socially, and economically sustainable water course regulation policy. The stakeholders’ opinions about the alternative regulation schemes and the relative importance of their impacts were elicited with the HIPRE software. Altogether, 20 personal interactive decision analysis interviews (DAIs) were carried out with the stakeholders. Our experience suggests that the DAIs can considerably improve the quality and efficiency of the collaborative planning process. By improving communication and understanding of the decision situation in the steering group, the approach helped to develop a consensus solution in a case having strong conflicts of interest. In order to gain the full benefits of the MCDA approach, interactive preference elicitation is vital. It is also essential to integrate the approach tightly into the planning and decision-making process. The project’s home pages are available to the public at http://www.paijanne.hut.fi/ .

  7. Decision Analysis and Its Application to the Frequency of Containment Integrated Leakage Rate Tests

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    For nuclear utilities to become competitive in a deregulated electricity market, costs must be reduced, safety must be maintained, and interested stakeholders must remain content with the decisions being made. One way to reduce costs is to reduce the frequency of preventive maintenance and testing. However, these changes must be weighed against their impact on safety and stakeholder relations. We present a methodology that allows the evaluation of decision options using a number of objectives that include safety, economics, and stakeholder relations. First, the candidate decision options are screened to make sure that they satisfy the relevant regulatory requirements. The remaining options are evaluated using multiattribute utility theory. The results of the formal analysis include a ranking of the options according to their desirability as well as the major reasons that explain this ranking. These results are submitted to a deliberative process in which the decision makers scrutinize the results to ensure that they are meaningful. During the deliberation, new decision options may be formulated based on the insights that the formal analysis provides, as happened in the case study of this paper. This case study deals with the reduction in frequency of the containment integrated leak rate test of a boiling water reactor

  8. Risky decision making in Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder: A meta-regression analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dekkers, Tycho J; Popma, Arne; Agelink van Rentergem, Joost A; Bexkens, Anika; Huizenga, Hilde M

    2016-04-01

    ADHD has been associated with various forms of risky real life decision making, for example risky driving, unsafe sex and substance abuse. However, results from laboratory studies on decision making deficits in ADHD have been inconsistent, probably because of between study differences. We therefore performed a meta-regression analysis in which 37 studies (n ADHD=1175; n Control=1222) were included, containing 52 effect sizes. The overall analysis yielded a small to medium effect size (standardized mean difference=.36, pADHD showed more risky decision making than control groups. There was a trend for a moderating influence of co-morbid Disruptive Behavior Disorders (DBD): studies including more participants with co-morbid DBD had larger effect sizes. No moderating influence of co-morbid internalizing disorders, age or task explicitness was found. These results indicate that ADHD is related to increased risky decision making in laboratory settings, which tended to be more pronounced if ADHD is accompanied by DBD. We therefore argue that risky decision making should have a more prominent role in research on the neuropsychological and -biological mechanisms of ADHD, which can be useful in ADHD assessment and intervention. PMID:26978323

  9. Multi-criteria decision analysis in environmental sciences: ten years of applications and trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Ivy B; Keisler, Jeffrey; Linkov, Igor

    2011-09-01

    Decision-making in environmental projects requires consideration of trade-offs between socio-political, environmental, and economic impacts and is often complicated by various stakeholder views. Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) emerged as a formal methodology to face available technical information and stakeholder values to support decisions in many fields and can be especially valuable in environmental decision making. This study reviews environmental applications of MCDA. Over 300 papers published between 2000 and 2009 reporting MCDA applications in the environmental field were identified through a series of queries in the Web of Science database. The papers were classified by their environmental application area, decision or intervention type. In addition, the papers were also classified by the MCDA methods used in the analysis (analytic hierarchy process, multi-attribute utility theory, and outranking). The results suggest that there is a significant growth in environmental applications of MCDA over the last decade across all environmental application areas. Multiple MCDA tools have been successfully used for environmental applications. Even though the use of the specific methods and tools varies in different application areas and geographic regions, our review of a few papers where several methods were used in parallel with the same problem indicates that recommended course of action does not vary significantly with the method applied. PMID:21764422

  10. Quantitative ultrasound texture analysis for clinical decision making support

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Jie Ying; Beland, Michael; Konrad, Joseph; Tuomi, Adam; Glidden, David; Grand, David; Merck, Derek

    2015-03-01

    We propose a general ultrasound (US) texture-analysis and machine-learning framework for detecting the presence of disease that is suitable for clinical application across clinicians, disease types, devices, and operators. Its stages are image selection, image filtering, ROI selection, feature parameterization, and classification. Each stage is modular and can be replaced with alternate methods. Thus, this framework is adaptable to a wide range of tasks. Our two preliminary clinical targets are hepatic steatosis and adenomyosis diagnosis. For steatosis, we collected US images from 288 patients and their pathology-determined values of steatosis (%) from biopsies. Two radiologists independently reviewed all images and identified the region of interest (ROI) most representative of the hepatic echotexture for each patient. To parameterize the images into comparable quantities, we filter the US images at multiple scales for various texture responses. For each response, we collect a histogram of pixel features within the ROI, and parameterize it as a Gaussian function using its mean, standard deviation, kurtosis, and skew to create a 36-feature vector. Our algorithm uses a support vector machine (SVM) for classification. Using a threshold of 10%, we achieved 72.81% overall accuracy, 76.18% sensitivity, and 65.96% specificity in identifying steatosis with leave-ten-out cross-validation (padenomyosis, we identified 38 patients with MR-confirmed findings of adenomyosis and previous US studies and 50 controls. A single rater picked the best US-image and ROI for each case. Using the same processing pipeline, we obtained 76.14% accuracy, 86.00% sensitivity, and 63.16% specificity with leave-one-out cross-validation (p<0.0001).

  11. Economic analysis for upgrade decision-making using a control system replacement example

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper (3rd in a CNS series) provides insight on how nuclear power plants can achieve better efficiencies and reduced operations and maintenance (O and M) costs by making well-informed equipment upgrade decisions. An investment decision in a plant system upgrade will have various technical options and associated performance outcomes. These can be modelled and evaluated using economic and financial analysis methods. The economic analysis usually involves a comparison of an investment scenario versus a no-investment scenario called difference case analysis. The investment may include several scenarios due to the existence of various options, different investment timings, or desired performance results. Classical approaches, using financial tools such as net present value and internal rate of return calculations, may be used to quantify the financial benefits of the difference cases when certainty about the outcomes is assumed. When making decisions under risk, the classical approaches may be augmented with methods that consider life-cycle costs and benefits, the cost consequences of and probability of equipment failure, the timing of the replacement, and the uncertainties in estimating costs and benefits. The use of expected value and Monte Carlo simulation, among others, allow the incorporation of financial and technical uncertainty into the analysis. Finally, sensitivity analysis enables better understanding of the problem and may improve the decision and clarify the level of confidence that should be put in the outcomes. This paper illustrates the use of financial decision analysis methods for equipment replacements using a control system upgrade example. These methods may easily be generalized for other types of plant upgrades. (author)

  12. Using System Dynamics Analysis for Evaluating Neighborhood Economic Outcomes from Transportation and Land Use Decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Proposed Title: Using System Dynamics Analysis for Evaluating Neighborhood Economic Outcomes from Transportation and Land Use Decisions Topic (must choose one item from a drop-down list): Community Indicators Learning Objectives (must list 2): • What are the benefits and l...

  13. Sensitivity analysis for decision-making using the MORE method-A Pareto approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Integrated Assessment Modelling (IAM) incorporates knowledge from different disciplines to provide an overarching assessment of the impact of different management decisions. The complex nature of these models, which often include non-linearities and feedback loops, requires special attention for sensitivity analysis. This is especially true when the models are used to form the basis of management decisions, where it is important to assess how sensitive the decisions being made are to changes in model parameters. This research proposes an extension to the Management Option Rank Equivalence (MORE) method of sensitivity analysis; a new method of sensitivity analysis developed specifically for use in IAM and decision-making. The extension proposes using a multi-objective Pareto optimal search to locate minimum combined parameter changes that result in a change in the preferred management option. It is demonstrated through a case study of the Namoi River, where results show that the extension to MORE is able to provide sensitivity information for individual parameters that takes into account simultaneous variations in all parameters. Furthermore, the increased sensitivities to individual parameters that are discovered when joint parameter variation is taken into account shows the importance of ensuring that any sensitivity analysis accounts for these changes.

  14. An integrated probabilistic risk analysis decision support methodology for systems with multiple state variables

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) methods have been proven to be valuable in risk and reliability analysis. However, a weak link seems to exist between methods for analysing risks and those for making rational decisions. The integrated decision support system (IDSS) methodology presented in this paper attempts to address this issue in a practical manner. In consists of three phases: a PRA phase, a risk sensitivity analysis (SA) phase and an optimisation phase, which are implemented through an integrated computer software system. In the risk analysis phase the problem is analysed by the Boolean representation method (BRM), a PRA method that can deal with systems with multiple state variables and feedback loops. In the second phase the results obtained from the BRM are utilised directly to perform importance and risk SA. In the third phase, the problem is formulated as a multiple objective decision making problem in the form of multiple objective reliability optimisation. An industrial example is included. The resultant solutions of a five objective reliability optimisation are presented, on the basis of which rational decision making can be explored

  15. Climate Risk Informed Decision Analysis: A Hypothetical Application to the Waas Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gilroy, Kristin; Mens, Marjolein; Haasnoot, Marjolijn; Jeuken, Ad

    2016-04-01

    More frequent and intense hydrologic events under climate change are expected to enhance water security and flood risk management challenges worldwide. Traditional planning approaches must be adapted to address climate change and develop solutions with an appropriate level of robustness and flexibility. The Climate Risk Informed Decision Analysis (CRIDA) method is a novel planning approach embodying a suite of complementary methods, including decision scaling and adaptation pathways. Decision scaling offers a bottom-up approach to assess risk and tailors the complexity of the analysis to the problem at hand and the available capacity. Through adaptation pathway,s an array of future strategies towards climate robustness are developed, ranging in flexibility and immediacy of investments. Flexible pathways include transfer points to other strategies to ensure that the system can be adapted if future conditions vary from those expected. CRIDA combines these two approaches in a stakeholder driven process which guides decision makers through the planning and decision process, taking into account how the confidence in the available science, the consequences in the system, and the capacity of institutions should influence strategy selection. In this presentation, we will explain the CRIDA method and compare it to existing planning processes, such as the US Army Corps of Engineers Principles and Guidelines as well as Integrated Water Resources Management Planning. Then, we will apply the approach to a hypothetical case study for the Waas Region, a large downstream river basin facing rapid development threatened by increased flood risks. Through the case study, we will demonstrate how a stakeholder driven process can be used to evaluate system robustness to climate change; develop adaptation pathways for multiple objectives and criteria; and illustrate how varying levels of confidence, consequences, and capacity would play a role in the decision making process, specifically

  16. An Integrated Approach with Group Decision-Making for Strategy Selection in SWOT Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    İhsan Yüksel

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available The main aim of this study was to improve the analytical dimension of SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats analysis with group decision-making, which underlines the analysis of internal and external environments that in turn, will improve the definition of corporate strategy within the strategic planning process. The main issue of the study was how to select the most appropriate strategy by taking into consideration different effects of each factor of SWOT analysis on strategy selection. The proposed model addresses strengths and opportunities as benefits and weaknesses and threats as costs. The model was solved with analytic network process (ANP and fuzzy technique for order performance by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS technique with group decision-making. The integrated ANP and Fuzzy TOPSIS model proposed at the end of the present study has been shown to be applicable to SWOT analysis and strategy selection.

  17. Decision analysis for mobilizing and retrieving sludge from double-shell tanks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This decision analysis evaluates alternative technologies for the initial mobilization and retrieval of sludges in double-shell tanks (DSTs). The analysis is from the perspective of the need to move sludges from one DST to another for interim retrieval. It supports the more general decision of which technologies to use to retreive various types of DST waste. The initial analysis is from the perspective of a typical DST with 2 ft of sludge to mobilize. During the course of the analysis, it became clear that it was important to also consider sludge mobilization in support of the high-level waste (HLW) vitrification demonstration plant, and in particular the risks associated with failing to meeting the minimum order requirements for the vendor, as well as the cost of mobilization and retrieval from the HLW vitrification source tanks

  18. Decision analysis for mobilizing and retrieving sludge from double-shell tanks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brothers, A.J.; Williams, N.C.; Dukelow, J.S.; Hansen, R.I. [and others

    1997-09-01

    This decision analysis evaluates alternative technologies for the initial mobilization and retrieval of sludges in double-shell tanks (DSTs). The analysis is from the perspective of the need to move sludges from one DST to another for interim retrieval. It supports the more general decision of which technologies to use to retreive various types of DST waste. The initial analysis is from the perspective of a typical DST with 2 ft of sludge to mobilize. During the course of the analysis, it became clear that it was important to also consider sludge mobilization in support of the high-level waste (HLW) vitrification demonstration plant, and in particular the risks associated with failing to meeting the minimum order requirements for the vendor, as well as the cost of mobilization and retrieval from the HLW vitrification source tanks.

  19. Precision Measurement of sin2(theta_w) at MESA

    CERN Document Server

    Bucoveanu, R; Spiesberger, H

    2016-01-01

    A forthcoming experiment of low-energy elastic electron proton scattering at the new MESA facility in Mainz is planned to provide a high-precision measurement of the parity-violating polarisation asymmetry. This experiment is expected to lead to a precision determination of the weak mixing angle, competitive with Z-pole data. We discuss the challenges for theory to derive predictions with the required accuracy.

  20. Foundations of risk analysis a knowledge and decision-oriented perspective

    CERN Document Server

    Aven

    2004-01-01

    Everyday we face decisions that carry an element of risk and uncertainty. The ability to analyse, communicate and control the level of risk entailed by these decisions remains one of the most pressing challenges to the analyst, scientist and manager. This book presents the foundational issues in risk analysis - expressing risk, understanding what risk means, building risk models, addressing uncertainty, and applying probability models to real problems. The principal aim of the book is to give the reader the knowledge and basic thinking they require to approach risk and uncertainty to support d

  1. Log Analysis as a way to assist Opera mini cluster management decisions

    OpenAIRE

    2008-01-01

    This thesis considers ways that analysis of Opera mini logs can assist decisions related to global and local load balancing of Opera mini clusters. The analy- sis is aimed to determine the distribution of traffic with respect to country of origin and server within the cluster over the period of 2 weeks by creating a system for extraction and analysis of log data. Findings show that a large part of traffic originates in Russia with India and Indonesia being second and third. ...

  2. Efficiency analysis with interval-scale data based on separating hyperplane of decision making units

    OpenAIRE

    Mansour Mohammadpour

    2015-01-01

    The traditional data envelopment analysis (DEA) model can evaluate the relative efficiencies of a set of decision making units (DMUs) with ratio scale inputs and outputs, but it cannot handle interval scale data. This study develop an approach to efficiency analysis to deal with both interval-scale data and ratio scale data. This approach introduces a measure of inefficiency and identifies efficient units as is done in DEA models with VRS technology. The basic idea in the approach is to obtai...

  3. Exploring the Decision Making Process in Statistical Data Analysis: A Qualitative Study of Quantitative Researchers

    OpenAIRE

    Ho, Timothy

    2015-01-01

    Quantitative data analysis is a cognitively demanding process. Inferences from quantitative analyses are often used to inform matters of public policy and to learn about social phenomena. However, as statistical analysis is typically conducted behind closed office doors, little is known about how analysts decide on the final statistical model that important policy decisions rely upon for determining the effectiveness of programs and policies. As social programming becomes increasingly reliant...

  4. Aerial radiometric and magnetic reconnaissance survey of portions of Arizona--New Mexico, Mesa Quadrangle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The results of a high-sensitivity aerial gamma-ray spectrometer and magnetometer survey of the Mesa Quadrangle, Arizona, are presented. Statistical and geological analysis of the radiometric data revealed 110 uranium anomalies worthy of field checking as possible prospects. Sixty-three anomalies suggest the presence of vein-type uranium in acid igneous rocks of Tertiary to Mesozoic age. Twenty-three anomalies are related to Precambrian granites and three to Precambrian schists. The Dripping Spring Quartzite, which has the greatest possibility for mineralization in the Mesa Quadrangle, is associated with 16 anomalies. Six anomalies may indicate uranium mineralization in the potentially favorable Supai Formation in the northeastern part of the quadrangle. The presence of possible stratiform uranium deposits in basins is indicated by 35 anomalies in rocks varying in age from Quaternary to Cretaceous. Ranges appearing most favorable for uranium mineralization include Humbolt Mountain, West Granite-Herder Mountains area, Pine Mountain--Four Peaks area, Fish Creek--Iron Mountains area, Dripping Spring--Tortilla-Mescal Mountains zone, west side of Gila Mountains, Sierra Ancha, and east of the Sierra Ancha

  5. Modules for Experiments in Stellar Astrophysics (MESA): Binaries, Pulsations, and Explosions

    CERN Document Server

    Paxton, Bill; Schwab, Josiah; Bauer, Evan B; Bildsten, Lars; Cantiello, Matteo; Dessart, Luc; Farmer, R; Hu, H; Langer, N; Townsend, R H D; Townsley, Dean M; Timmes, F X

    2015-01-01

    We substantially update the capabilities of the open-source software instrument Modules for Experiments in Stellar Astrophysics (MESA). MESA can now simultaneously evolve an interacting pair of differentially rotating stars undergoing transfer and loss of mass and angular momentum, greatly enhancing the prior ability to model binary evolution. New MESA capabilities in fully coupled calculation of nuclear networks with hundreds of isotopes now allow MESA to accurately simulate advanced burning stages needed to construct supernova progenitor models. Implicit hydrodynamics with shocks can now be treated with MESA, enabling modeling of the entire massive star lifecycle, from pre-main sequence evolution to the onset of core collapse and nucleosynthesis from the resulting explosion. Coupling of the GYRE non-adiabatic pulsation instrument with MESA allows for new explorations of the instability strips for massive stars while also accelerating the astrophysical use of asteroseismology data. We improve treatment of ma...

  6. Methodological Aspects of Qualitative-Quantitative Analysis of Decision-Making Processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gawlik Remigiusz

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The paper aims at recognizing the possibilities and perspectives of application of qualitative-quantitative research methodology in the field of economics, with a special focus on production engineering management processes. The main goal of the research is to define the methods that would extend the research apparatus of economists and managers by tools that allow the inclusion of qualitative determinants into quantitative analysis. Such approach is justified by qualitative character of many determinants of economic occurrences. At the same time quantitative approach seems to be predominant in production engineering management, although methods of transposition of qualitative decision criteria can be found in literature. Nevertheless, international economics and management could profit from a mixed methodology, incorporating both types of determinants into joint decision-making models. The research methodology consists of literature review and own analysis of applicability of mixed qualitative-quantitative methods for managerial decision-making. The expected outcome of the research is to find which methods should be applied to include qualitative-quantitative analysis into multicriteria decision-making models in the fields of economics, with a special regard to production engineering management.

  7. The need to go beyond analysis in making risk-based decisions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    decision-makers and their advisors have lagged in going beyond analysis in making risk-based decisions. Whether it is a case like Brent Spar here in Europe or Yucca Mountain in the United States, significant lessons can be learned on how to make decisions in democratic societies

  8. Climate Risk Informed Decision Analysis (CRIDA): A novel practical guidance for Climate Resilient Investments and Planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeuken, Ad; Mendoza, Guillermo; Matthews, John; Ray, Patrick; Haasnoot, Marjolijn; Gilroy, Kristin; Olsen, Rolf; Kucharski, John; Stakhiv, Gene; Cushing, Janet; Brown, Casey

    2016-04-01

    over time. They are part of the Dutch adaptive planning approach Adaptive Delta Management, executed and develop by the Dutch Delta program. Both decision scaling and adaptation pathways have been piloted in studies worldwide. The objective of CRIDA is to mainstream effective climate adaptation for professional water managers. The CRIDA publication, due in april 2016, follows the generic water design planning design cycle. At each step, CRIDA describes stepwise guidance for incorporating climate robustness: problem definition, stress test, alternatives formulation and recommendation, evaluation and selection. In the presentation the origin, goal, steps and practical tools available at each step of CRIDA will be explained. In two other abstracts ("Climate Risk Informed Decision Analysis: A Hypothetical Application to the Waas Region" by Gilroy et al., "The Application of Climate Risk Informed Decision Analysis to the Ioland Water Treatment Plant in Lusaka, Zambia, by Kucharski et al.), the application of CRIDA to cases is explained

  9. Spatially explicit multi-criteria decision analysis for managing vector-borne diseases

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hongoh Valerie

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract The complex epidemiology of vector-borne diseases creates significant challenges in the design and delivery of prevention and control strategies, especially in light of rapid social and environmental changes. Spatial models for predicting disease risk based on environmental factors such as climate and landscape have been developed for a number of important vector-borne diseases. The resulting risk maps have proven value for highlighting areas for targeting public health programs. However, these methods generally only offer technical information on the spatial distribution of disease risk itself, which may be incomplete for making decisions in a complex situation. In prioritizing surveillance and intervention strategies, decision-makers often also need to consider spatially explicit information on other important dimensions, such as the regional specificity of public acceptance, population vulnerability, resource availability, intervention effectiveness, and land use. There is a need for a unified strategy for supporting public health decision making that integrates available data for assessing spatially explicit disease risk, with other criteria, to implement effective prevention and control strategies. Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA is a decision support tool that allows for the consideration of diverse quantitative and qualitative criteria using both data-driven and qualitative indicators for evaluating alternative strategies with transparency and stakeholder participation. Here we propose a MCDA-based approach to the development of geospatial models and spatially explicit decision support tools for the management of vector-borne diseases. We describe the conceptual framework that MCDA offers as well as technical considerations, approaches to implementation and expected outcomes. We conclude that MCDA is a powerful tool that offers tremendous potential for use in public health decision-making in general and vector

  10. OPTIMAL BUSINESS DECISION SYSTEM FOR MULTINATIONALS: A MULTIFACTOR ANALYSIS OF SELECTED MANUFACTURING FIRMS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oforegbunam Thaddeus Ebiringa

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Traditional MIS has been made more effective through the integration of organization, human andtechnology factors into a decision matrix. The study is motivated by the need to find an optimal mixof interactive factors that will optimize the result of decision to apply ICT to manufacturingprocesses. The study used Factor analysis model based on the sampled opinion of forty (40operations/production managers and two thousand (2000 production line workers of three leadingmanufacturing firms: Uniliver Plc., PZ Plc, and Nigerian Breweries Plc operating in Aba IndustrialEstate of Nigeria. The results shows that a progressive mixed factor loading matrix, based on thepreferred ordered importance of resources factors in the formulation, implementation, monitoring,control and evaluation of ICT projects of the selected firms led to an average capability improvementof 0.764 in decision efficiency. This is considered strategic for achieving balanced corporate growthand development.

  11. Project management in mine actions using Multi-Criteria-Analysis-based decision support system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marko Mladineo

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, a Web-based Decision Support System (Web DSS, that supports humanitarian demining operations and restoration of mine-contaminated areas, is presented. The financial shortage usually triggers a need for priority setting in Project Management in Mine actions. As part of the FP7 Project TIRAMISU, a specialized Web DSS has been developed to achieve a fully transparent priority setting process. It allows stakeholders and donors to actively join the decision making process using a user-friendly and intuitive Web application. The main advantage of this Web DSS is its unique way of managing a mine action project using Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA, namely the PROMETHEE method, in order to select priorities for demining actions. The developed Web DSS allows decision makers to use several predefined scenarios (different criteria weights or to develop their own, so it allows project managers to compare different demining possibilities with ease.

  12. The utility of environmental exergy analysis for decision making in energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The analysis framework discussed and employed in this paper utilizes the recent recognition that exergy is a form of environmental free energy to provide a fundamental basis for valuing environmental interactions independent from their secondary impacts. The framework is comprised of two separate components: (1) environmental exergy analysis and (2) anthropocentric sensitivity analysis. Environmental exergy analysis is based on fundamental thermodynamic principles and analysis techniques. It extends the principles of technical exergy analysis to the environment in order to quantify the location, magnitudes, and types of environmental impact—state change, alteration of natural transfers, and destruction change. Anthropocentric sensitivity analysis is based on the concepts of anthropocentric value and anthropocentric sensitivity. It enables the results of environmental exergy analysis to be interpreted for decision making, but at the expense of introducing some subjectivity into the framework. A key attribute of the framework is its ability to evaluate the environmental performance of energy systems on a level playing field, regardless of the specifics of the systems—i.e., resources consumed, products and by-products produced, or system size and time scale. The utility of the analysis framework for decision making is demonstrated in this paper through application to three example energy systems. - Highlights: ► Utilizes the recognition that exergy is a form of environmental free energy. ► Combines environmental exergy analysis and anthropocentric sensitivity analysis. ► Evaluates/compares environmental performance of systems on a level playing field. ► Independence from the system specifics—resources, by-products, sizes, time scales. ► Utility for decision making is demonstrated using real and notional energy systems

  13. INTEGRATION OF MULTICRITERIA ANALYSIS INTO DECISION SUPPORT CONCEPT FOR URBAN ROAD INFRASTRUCTURE MANAGEMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Niksa Jajac

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Urban road infrastructure management deals with complex decision making process. There are several reasons for a complexity such as: multi-disciplinarity, lots of participants, huge quantity of information, limited budget, conflict goals and criteria. These facts indicate that decision making processes in urban road infrastructure management belong to ill-defined problems. In order to cope with such complexity and to help managers during decision making processes this research proposes an application of multicriteria methods. Therefore, a generic concept of decision support for urban road infrastructure management based on multicriteria analysis is proposed. Three multicriteria methods: AHP, SAW and PROMETHHE, in a combination with 0-1 programming are used. The main advantage of an application of multicriteria analysis is that all stakeholders could be objectively included into decision process. Therefore, setting up of criteria weights involves opinions from all stakeholders’ groups (stakeholders are divided into three characteristic groups. Evaluation of criteria importance (weights is based on three sets of opinions processed by Analytic Hierarchic Processing (AHP method. Three sets of criteria are then processed by Simple Additive Weighting (SAW method resulting in a final set of criteria weights. By using SAW method, relative importance of opinions of all three stakeholders’ groups is introduced. Collected data are then processed by PROMETHEE multicriteria methods. Proposed decision support concept is validated on the problem of improvement of one part of an urban road infrastructure system for a large urban area of town of Split. The concept is efficiently applied on several problems regarding parking garages: location selection, sub-project ranking, definition of an investment strategy.

  14. "Quick and dirty" technology for fabrication of a single BiSrCaCuO mesas

    OpenAIRE

    Vopilkin, E. A.; Chiginev, A. V.; Revin, L. S.; Tropanova, A. N.; Shuleshova, I. Yu.; Okhapkin, A. I.; Shovkun, A. D.; Kulakov, A. B.; Pankratov, A. L.

    2014-01-01

    The technology of wet etching allowing fabrication of standalone BiSrCaCuO mesa structures was proposed. The produced mesas can be produced much thicker than ones usually being studied. The time required for the fabrication is much smaller in comparison with the standard method of ion milling. The process used is controllable which provides acceptable precision of mesa fabrication. The current-voltage characteristics of the sample showing Josephson nature were obtained. The qualitative compar...

  15. Evaluation of SOVAT: An OLAP-GIS decision support system for community health assessment data analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Parmanto Bambang

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Data analysis in community health assessment (CHA involves the collection, integration, and analysis of large numerical and spatial data sets in order to identify health priorities. Geographic Information Systems (GIS enable for management and analysis using spatial data, but have limitations in performing analysis of numerical data because of its traditional database architecture. On-Line Analytical Processing (OLAP is a multidimensional datawarehouse designed to facilitate querying of large numerical data. Coupling the spatial capabilities of GIS with the numerical analysis of OLAP, might enhance CHA data analysis. OLAP-GIS systems have been developed by university researchers and corporations, yet their potential for CHA data analysis is not well understood. To evaluate the potential of an OLAP-GIS decision support system for CHA problem solving, we compared OLAP-GIS to the standard information technology (IT currently used by many public health professionals. Methods SOVAT, an OLAP-GIS decision support system developed at the University of Pittsburgh, was compared against current IT for data analysis for CHA. For this study, current IT was considered the combined use of SPSS and GIS ("SPSS-GIS". Graduate students, researchers, and faculty in the health sciences at the University of Pittsburgh were recruited. Each round consisted of: an instructional video of the system being evaluated, two practice tasks, five assessment tasks, and one post-study questionnaire. Objective and subjective measurement included: task completion time, success in answering the tasks, and system satisfaction. Results Thirteen individuals participated. Inferential statistics were analyzed using linear mixed model analysis. SOVAT was statistically significant (α = .01 from SPSS-GIS for satisfaction and time (p Conclusion Using SOVAT, tasks were completed more efficiently, with a higher rate of success, and with greater satisfaction, than the

  16. Adding value in oil and gas by applying decision analysis methodologies: case history

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Marot, Nicolas [Petro Andina Resources Inc., Alberta (Canada); Francese, Gaston [Tandem Decision Solutions, Buenos Aires (Argentina)

    2008-07-01

    Petro Andina Resources Ltd. together with Tandem Decision Solutions developed a strategic long range plan applying decision analysis methodology. The objective was to build a robust and fully integrated strategic plan that accomplishes company growth goals to set the strategic directions for the long range. The stochastic methodology and the Integrated Decision Management (IDM{sup TM}) staged approach allowed the company to visualize the associated value and risk of the different strategies while achieving organizational alignment, clarity of action and confidence in the path forward. A decision team involving jointly PAR representatives and Tandem consultants was established to carry out this four month project. Discovery and framing sessions allow the team to disrupt the status quo, discuss near and far reaching ideas and gather the building blocks from which creative strategic alternatives were developed. A comprehensive stochastic valuation model was developed to assess the potential value of each strategy applying simulation tools, sensitivity analysis tools and contingency planning techniques. Final insights and results have been used to populate the final strategic plan presented to the company board providing confidence to the team, assuring that the work embodies the best available ideas, data and expertise, and that the proposed strategy was ready to be elaborated into an optimized course of action. (author)

  17. LIMITS OF SWOT ANALYSIS AND THEIR IMPACT ON DECISIONS IN EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Florin POPESCU

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, threats analysis is useful in the decision-making process – crucial to any organization manager and/or strategist. This study aims to add value to the existing literature on SWOT, indicating its use and limitations, showing the need to link SWOT to other strategic tools and methodologies. As the current environment is turbulent and unpredictable, and economic cycles no longer comply with traditional rules, the precaution has become extremely important. That’s why SWOT should be supplemented with newer dynamic analysis capabilities and strategy tools, as early warning and opportunities system (EWOS, which can provide crucial inputs for scenario building, strategic thinking and decisions. EWOS is a novel approach based on three concepts that contribute to the ability of organization/project managers to develop outstanding capacity to "understand" and "benefit" in identifying opportunities and threats: (i business and competitive intelligence; (ii early warning thinking; (iii strategic thinking in decision making process. EWOS is of practical use for strategists and decision makers.

  18. An Analytic Hierarchy Process Analysis: Application to Subscriber Retention Decisions in the Nigerian Mobile Telecommunications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adebiyi Sulaimon Olanrewaju

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The introduction of mobile number portability (MNP in the Nigerian telecommunications industry has brought a new challenge for mobile operators. This study investigates the use of Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP in customer retention decisions in the Nigerian telecommunication industry using a cross-sectional survey design. Primary data were obtained through questionnaires administered to 480 mobile telecommunications subscribers in six tertiary institutions located in Lagos State, Nigeria. These educational institutions were chosen using a multistage sampling technique. Of 438 questionnaires received from subscribers, 408 were valid. Based on this sample data an AHP model was built to assess the determinants of customer retention decisions. Next, eigen values, an eigen vector and maximum lambda (λMax were obtained using the AHP analysis for the matrices. This analysis shows that customers considered call quality as the important in the retention decision. We conclude that AHP is a meaningful tool for determining what motivates retention decisions, that can help network operators formulate effective customer retention strategies.

  19. Optimization-based multicriteria decision analysis for identification of desired petroleum-contaminated groundwater remediation strategies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Hongwei; Feng, Mao; He, Li; Ren, Lixia

    2015-06-01

    The conventional multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) methods used for pollution control generally depend on the data currently available. This could limit their real-world applications, especially where the input data (e.g., the most cost-effective remediation cost and eventual contaminant concentration) might vary by scenario. This study proposes an optimization-based MCDA (OMCDA) framework to address such a challenge. It is capable of (1) capturing various preferences of decision-makers, (2) screening and analyzing the performance of various optimized remediation strategies under changeable scenarios, and (3) compromising incongruous decision analysis results. A real-world case study is employed for demonstration, where four scenarios are considered with each one corresponding to a set of weights representative of the preference of the decision-makers. Four criteria are selected, i.e., optimal total pumping rate, remediation cost, contaminant concentration, and fitting error. Their values are determined through running optimization and optimization-based simulation procedures. Four sets of the most desired groundwater remediation strategies are identified, implying specific pumping rates under varied scenarios. Results indicate that the best action lies in groups 32 and 16 for the 5-year, groups 49 and 36 for the 10-year, groups 26 and 13 for the 15-year, and groups 47 and 13 for the 20-year remediation. PMID:25613797

  20. Parent-son decision-making about human papillomavirus vaccination: a qualitative analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexander Andreia B

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Licensed for use in males in 2009, Human Papillomavirus (HPV vaccination rates in adolescent males are extremely low. Literature on HPV vaccination focuses on females, adult males, or parents of adolescent males, without including adolescent males or the dynamics of the parent-son interaction that may influence vaccine decision-making. The purpose of this paper is to examine the decision-making process of parent-son dyads when deciding whether or not to get vaccinated against HPV. Methods Twenty-one adolescent males (ages 13–17, with no previous HPV vaccination, and their parents/guardians were recruited from adolescent primary care clinics serving low to middle income families in a large Midwestern city. Dyad members participated in separate semi-structured interviews assessing the relative role of the parent and son in the decision regarding HPV vaccination. Interviews were recorded, transcribed, and coded using inductive content analysis. Results Parents and sons focused on protection as a reason for vaccination; parents felt a need to protect their child, while sons wanted to protect their own health. Parents and sons commonly misinterpreted the information about the vaccine. Sons were concerned about an injection in the penis, while some parents and sons thought the vaccine would protect them against other sexually transmitted infections including Herpes, Gonorrhea, and HIV. Parents and sons recalled that the vaccine prevented genital warts rather than cancer. The vaccine decision-making process was rapid and dynamic, including an initial reaction to the recommendation for HPV vaccine, discussion between parent and son, and the final vaccine decision. Provider input was weighed in instances of initial disagreement. Many boys felt that this was the first health care decision that they had been involved in. Dyads which reported shared decision-making were more likely to openly communicate about sexual issues than those

  1. GPs' decision-making when prescribing medicines for breastfeeding women: Content analysis of a survey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amir Lisa H

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Many breastfeeding women seek medical care from general practitioners (GPs for various health problems and GPs may consider prescribing medicines in these consultations. Prescribing medicines to a breastfeeding mother may lead to untimely cessation of breastfeeding or a breastfeeding mother may be denied medicines due to the possible risk to her infant, both of which may lead to unwanted consequences. Information on factors governing GPs' decision-making and their views in such situations is limited. Methods GPs providing shared maternity care at the Royal Women's Hospital, Melbourne were surveyed using an anonymous postal survey to determine their knowledge, attitudes and practices on medicines and breastfeeding, in 2007/2008 (n = 640. Content analysis of their response to a question concerning decision-making about the use of medicine for a breastfeeding woman was conducted. A thematic network was constructed with basic, organising and global themes. Results 335 (52% GPs responded to the survey, and 253 (76% provided information on the last time they had to decide about the use of medicine for a breastfeeding woman. Conditions reported were mastitis (24%, other infections (24% and depressive disorders (21%. The global theme that emerged was "complexity of managing risk in prescribing for breastfeeding women". The organising themes were: certainty around decision-making; uncertainty around decision-making; need for drug information to be available, consistent and reliable; joint decision-making; the vulnerable "third party" and infant feeding decision. Decision-making is a spectrum from a straight forward decision, such as treatment of mastitis, to a complicated one requiring multiple inputs and consideration. GPs use more information seeking and collaboration in decision-making when they perceive the problem to be more complex, for example, in postnatal depression. Conclusion GPs feel that prescribing medicines for

  2. A GIS based spatially-explicit sensitivity and uncertainty analysis approach for multi-criteria decision analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Feizizadeh, Bakhtiar; Jankowski, Piotr; Blaschke, Thomas

    2014-01-01

    GIS multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) techniques are increasingly used in landslide susceptibility mapping for the prediction of future hazards, land use planning, as well as for hazard preparedness. However, the uncertainties associated with MCDA techniques are inevitable and model outcomes are open to multiple types of uncertainty. In this paper, we present a systematic approach to uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. We access the uncertainty of landslide susceptibility maps produced...

  3. Airports’ Operational Performance and Efficiency Evaluation Based on Multicriteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) and Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) Tools

    OpenAIRE

    João Jardim; Maria Emília Baltazar; Jorge Silva; Margarida Vaz

    2015-01-01

    Airport benchmarking depends on airports’ operational performance and efficiency indicators, which are important for business agents, operational managers, regulatory agencies, airlines and passengers. There are several sets of single and complex indicators to evaluate airports’ performance and efficiency as well as several techniques to benchmark such infrastructures. The general aim of this work is twofold: to balance the data envelopment analysis (DEA) and multicriteria decision analysi...

  4. Integrated risk/decision analysis for protection of groundwater from hazardous material contamination

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Public concern over groundwater contamination has focused attention on the management of hazardous materials in the U.S. Recent developments in the field of risk assessment can provide the engineering profession with the necessary tools for responding to this public concern. This paper presents an integrated risk/decision analysis methodology needed for systematically analyzing alternative courses of actions and their probable impact on groundwater resources. The analysis begins with the development of an event tree. A list of all possible event sequences to be considered has been compiled and a detailed analysis of the consequences of each event is conducted. Stemming from a decision on development over the recharge zone of an aquifer, and leading to the introduction of hazardous materials into the groundwater and contamination of the potable water supply, all events have been sequentially structured with both their positive and negative outcomes. The next step is to develop a comprehensive fault tree from the event tree. The logic relationships described by the fault tree are translated into algebraic operations allowing the objective determination of risk for any pathway leading from the initial policy decisions to the final consequence of contaminated groundwater. Risk acceptability analysis is based on historical risk data for the situations being considered. Probability limits for each potential risk are determined for each risk category associated with the specific situation and based on the revealed preference concept in quantitative psychology. The categorization of risks permits the assessment of acceptable risk for situations not considered in the past. Comparison of these risk limits with the risk probability values calculated from the event tree/fault tree analysis allows decision-makers to screen alternative courses of action based on their risk acceptabilities

  5. GIS Based Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis For Cement Plant Site Selection For Cuddalore District

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chhabra, A.

    2015-12-01

    India's cement industry is a vital part of its economy, providing employment to more than a million people. On the back of growing demands, due to increased construction and infrastructural activities cement market in India is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.96 percent during the period 2014-2019. In this study, GIS-based spatial Multi Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) is used to determine the optimum and alternative sites to setup a cement plant. This technique contains a set of evaluation criteria which are quantifiable indicators of the extent to which decision objectives are realized. In intersection with available GIS (Geographical Information System) and local ancillary data, the outputs of image analysis serves as input for the multi-criteria decision making system. Moreover, the following steps were performed so as to represent the criteria in GIS layers, which underwent the GIS analysis in order to get several potential sites. Satellite imagery from LANDSAT 8 and ASTER DEM were used for the analysis. Cuddalore District in Tamil Nadu was selected as the study site as limestone mining is already being carried out in that region which meets the criteria of raw material for cement production. Several other criteria considered were land use land cover (LULC) classification (built-up area, river, forest cover, wet land, barren land, harvest land and agriculture land), slope, proximity to road, railway and drainage networks.

  6. A multi-attribute decision analysis for decommissioning offshore oil and gas platforms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henrion, Max; Bernstein, Brock; Swamy, Surya

    2015-10-01

    The 27 oil and gas platforms off the coast of southern California are reaching the end of their economic lives. Because their decommissioning involves large costs and potential environmental impacts, this became an issue of public controversy. As part of a larger policy analysis conducted for the State of California, we implemented a decision analysis as a software tool (PLATFORM) to clarify and evaluate decision strategies against a comprehensive set of objectives. Key options selected for in-depth analysis are complete platform removal and partial removal to 85 feet below the water line, with the remaining structure converted in place to an artificial reef to preserve the rich ecosystems supported by the platform's support structure. PLATFORM was instrumental in structuring and performing key analyses of the impacts of each option (e.g., on costs, fishery production, air emissions) and dramatically improved the team's productivity. Sensitivity analysis found that disagreement about preferences, especially about the relative importance of strict compliance with lease agreements, has much greater effects on the preferred option than does uncertainty about specific outcomes, such as decommissioning costs. It found a near-consensus of stakeholders in support of partial removal and "rigs-to-reefs" program. The project's results played a role in the decision to pass legislation enabling an expanded California "rigs-to-reefs" program that includes a mechanism for sharing cost savings between operators and the state. PMID:26415010

  7. Frame-based safety analysis approach for decision-based errors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A frame-based approach is proposed to analyze decision-based errors made by automatic controllers or human operators due to erroneous reference frames. An integrated framework, Two Frame Model (TFM), is first proposed to model the dynamic interaction between the physical process and the decision-making process. Two important issues, consistency and competing processes, are raised. Consistency between the physical and logic frames makes a TFM-based system work properly. Loss of consistency refers to the failure mode that the logic frame does not accurately reflect the state of the controlled processes. Once such failure occurs, hazards may arise. Among potential hazards, the competing effect between the controller and the controlled process is the most severe one, which may jeopardize a defense-in-depth design. When the logic and physical frames are inconsistent, conventional safety analysis techniques are inadequate. We propose Frame-based Fault Tree; Analysis (FFTA) and Frame-based Event Tree Analysis (FETA) under TFM to deduce the context for decision errors and to separately generate the evolution of the logical frame as opposed to that of the physical frame. This multi-dimensional analysis approach, different from the conventional correctness-centred approach, provides a panoramic view in scenario generation. Case studies using the proposed techniques are also given to demonstrate their usage and feasibility

  8. Shared Decision-Making in Oncology - A Qualitative Analysis of Healthcare Providers' Views on Current Practice.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wiebke Frerichs

    Full Text Available Despite an increased awareness of shared decision-making (SDM and its prominent position on the health policy agenda, its implementation in routine care remains a challenge in Germany. In order to overcome this challenge, it is important to understand healthcare providers' views regarding SDM and to take their perspectives and opinions into account in the development of an implementation program. The present study aimed at exploring a the attitudes of different healthcare providers regarding SDM in oncology and b their experiences with treatment decisions in daily practice.A qualitative study was conducted using focus groups and individual interviews with different healthcare providers at the University Cancer Center Hamburg, Germany. Focus groups and interviews were audio-recorded, transcribed and analyzed using conventional content analysis and descriptive statistics.N = 4 focus groups with a total of N = 25 participants and N = 17 individual interviews were conducted. Attitudes regarding SDM varied greatly between the different participants, especially concerning the definition of SDM, the attitude towards the degree of patient involvement in decision-making and assumptions about when SDM should take place. Experiences on how treatment decisions are currently made varied. Negative experiences included time and structural constraints, and a lack of (multidisciplinary communication. Positive experiences comprised informed patients, involvement of relatives and a good physician-patient relationship.The results show that German healthcare providers in oncology have a range of attitudes that currently function as barriers towards the implementation of SDM. Also, their experiences on how decision-making is currently done reveal difficulties in actively involving patients in decision-making processes. It will be crucial to take these attitudes and experiences seriously and to subsequently disentangle existing misconceptions in future implementation

  9. Towards for Analyzing Alternatives of Interaction Design Based on Verbal Decision Analysis of User Experience

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marília Soares Mendes

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available In domains (as digital TV, smart home, and tangible interfaces that represent a new paradigm of interactivity, the decision of the most appropriate interaction design solution is a challenge. HCI researchers have promoted in their works the validation of design alternative solutions with users before producing the final solution. User experience with technology is a subject that has also gained ground in these works in order to analyze the appropriate solution(s. Following this concept, a study was accomplished under the objective of finding a better interaction solution for an application of mobile TV. Three executable applications of mobile TV prototypes were built. A Verbal Decision Analysis model was applied on the investigations for the favorite characteristics in each prototype based on the user’s experience and their intentions of use. This model led a performance of a qualitative analysis which objectified the design of a new prototype.

  10. Extended warranties, maintenance service and lease contracts modeling and analysis for decision-making

    CERN Document Server

    Murthy, D N Prabhakar

    2014-01-01

    Serving to unify the existing literature on extended warranties, maintenance service contracts and lease contracts, this book also presents a unique perspective on the topic focussed on cost analysis and decision-making from the perspectives of the parties involved. Using a game theoretic approach together with mathematical modelling, results are presented in an integrated manner with key topics that require further research highlighted in order to serve as a starting point for researchers (engineers and statisticians) who are interested in doing further work in these areas. Designed to assist practitioners (managers, engineers, applied statisticians) who are involved with extended warranties, maintenance service contracts and lease contracts, the book provides them with the models and techniques needed for proper cost analysis and effective decision-making. The book is also suitable for use as a reference text in industrial engineering, applied statistics, operations research and management.

  11. A life cycle analysis approach to D and D decision-making

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yuracko, K.L.; Gresalfi, M. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States); Yerace, P. [Dept. of Energy, Fernald, OH (United States). Fernald Environmental Management; Flora, J. [West Valley Demonstration Project, NY (United States); Krstich, M.; Gerrick, D. [Environmental Management Solutions, Mason, OH (United States)

    1998-05-01

    This paper describes a life cycle analysis (LCA) approach that makes decontamination and decommissioning (D and D) of US Department of Energy facilities more efficient and more responsive to the concerns of the society. With the considerable complexity of D and D projects and their attendant environmental and health consequences, projects can no longer be designed based on engineering and economic criteria alone. Using the LCA D and D approach, the evaluation of material disposition alternatives explicitly includes environmental impacts, health and safety impacts, socioeconomic impacts, and stakeholder attitudes -- in addition to engineering and economic criteria. Multi-attribute decision analysis is used to take into consideration the uncertainties and value judgments that are an important part of all material disposition decisions. Use of the LCA D and D approach should lead to more appropriate selections of material disposition pathways and a decision-making process that is both understandable and defensible. The methodology and procedures of the LCA D and D approach are outlined and illustrated by an application of the approach at the Department of Energy`s West Valley Demonstration Project. Specifically, LCA was used to aid decisions on disposition of soil and concrete from the Tank Pad D and D Project. A decision tree and the Pollution Prevention/Waste Minimization Users Guide for Environmental Restoration Projects were used to identify possible alternatives for disposition of the soil and concrete. Eight alternatives encompassing source reduction, segregation, treatment, and disposal were defined for disposition of the soil; two alternatives were identified for disposition of the concrete. Preliminary results suggest that segregation and treatment are advantageous in the disposition of both the soil and the concrete. This and other recent applications illustrate the strength and ease of application of the LCA D and D approach.

  12. A life cycle analysis approach to D and D decision-making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper describes a life cycle analysis (LCA) approach that makes decontamination and decommissioning (D and D) of US Department of Energy facilities more efficient and more responsive to the concerns of the society. With the considerable complexity of D and D projects and their attendant environmental and health consequences, projects can no longer be designed based on engineering and economic criteria alone. Using the LCA D and D approach, the evaluation of material disposition alternatives explicitly includes environmental impacts, health and safety impacts, socioeconomic impacts, and stakeholder attitudes -- in addition to engineering and economic criteria. Multi-attribute decision analysis is used to take into consideration the uncertainties and value judgments that are an important part of all material disposition decisions. Use of the LCA D and D approach should lead to more appropriate selections of material disposition pathways and a decision-making process that is both understandable and defensible. The methodology and procedures of the LCA D and D approach are outlined and illustrated by an application of the approach at the Department of Energy's West Valley Demonstration Project. Specifically, LCA was used to aid decisions on disposition of soil and concrete from the Tank Pad D and D Project. A decision tree and the Pollution Prevention/Waste Minimization Users Guide for Environmental Restoration Projects were used to identify possible alternatives for disposition of the soil and concrete. Eight alternatives encompassing source reduction, segregation, treatment, and disposal were defined for disposition of the soil; two alternatives were identified for disposition of the concrete. Preliminary results suggest that segregation and treatment are advantageous in the disposition of both the soil and the concrete. This and other recent applications illustrate the strength and ease of application of the LCA D and D approach

  13. Risk analysis for CHP decision making within the conditions of an open electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Decision making under uncertainty is a difficult task in most areas. Investment decisions for combined heat and power production (CHP) are certainly one of the areas where it is difficult to find an optimal solution since the payback period is several years and parameters change due to different perturbing factors of economic and mostly political nature. CHP is one of the most effective measures for saving primary energy and reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. The implementation of EU directives on the promotion of cogeneration based on useful heat demand in the internal energy market will accelerate CHP installation. The expected number of small CHP installations will be very high in the near future. A quick, reliable and simple tool for economic evaluation of small CHP systems is required. Since evaluation is normally made by sophisticated economic computer models which are rather expensive, a simple point estimate economic model was developed which was later upgraded by risk methodology to give more informative results for better decision making. This paper presents a reliable computer model entitled ''Computer program for economic evaluation analysis of CHP'' as a tool for analysis and economic evaluation of small CHP systems with the aim of helping the decision maker. The paper describes two methods for calculation of the sensitivity of the economic results to changes of input parameters and the uncertainty of the results: the classic/static method and the risk method. The computer program uses risk methodology by applying rate at RISK software on an existing conventional economic model. The use of risk methodology for economic evaluation can improve decisions by incorporating all possible information (knowledge), which cannot be done in the conventional economic model due to its limitations. The methodology was tested on the case of a CHP used in a smaller hospital. (author)

  14. Risk analysis for CHP decision making within the conditions of an open electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Decision making under uncertainty is a difficult task in most areas. Investment decisions for combined heat and power production (CHP) are certainly one of the areas where it is difficult to find an optimal solution since the payback period is several years and parameters change due to different perturbing factors of economic and mostly political nature. CHP is one of the most effective measures for saving primary energy and reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. The implementation of EU directives on the promotion of cogeneration based on useful heat demand in the internal energy market will accelerate CHP installation. The expected number of small CHP installations will be very high in the near future. A quick, reliable and simple tool for economic evaluation of small CHP systems is required. Since evaluation is normally made by sophisticated economic computer models which are rather expensive, a simple point estimate economic model was developed which was later upgraded by risk methodology to give more informative results for better decision making. This paper presents a reliable computer model entitled 'Computer program for economic evaluation analysis of CHP' as a tool for analysis and economic evaluation of small CHP systems with the aim of helping the decision maker. The paper describes two methods for calculation of the sensitivity of the economic results to changes of input parameters and the uncertainty of the results: the classic/static method and the risk method. The computer program uses risk methodology by applying RISK software on an existing conventional economic model. The use of risk methodology for economic evaluation can improve decisions by incorporating all possible information (knowledge), which cannot be done in the conventional economic model due to its limitations. The methodology was tested on the case of a CHP used in a smaller hospital

  15. Systems Analysis – a new paradigm and decision support tools for the water framework directive

    OpenAIRE

    Bruen, M.

    2008-01-01

    In the early days of Systems Analysis the focus was on providing tools for optimisation, modelling and simulation for use by experts. Now there is a recognition of the need to develop and disseminate tools to assist in making decisions, negotiating compromises and communicating preferences that can easily be used by stakeholders without the need for specialist training. The Water Framework Directive (WFD) requires public participation and thus provides a strong incentive for...

  16. Systems analysis – a new paradigm and decision support tools for the water framework directive

    OpenAIRE

    Bruen, M.

    2007-01-01

    In the early days of Systems Analysis the focus was on providing tools for optimisation, modelling and simulation for use by experts. Now there is a recognition of the need to develop and disseminate tools to assist in making decisions, negotiating compromises and communicating preferences that can easily be used by stakeholders without the need for specialist training. The Water Framework Directive (WFD) requires public participation and thus provides a strong incentive for progress in this ...

  17. Re-mining association mining results through visualization, data envelopment analysis, and decision trees

    OpenAIRE

    Ertek, Gürdal; Ertek, Gurdal; Tunç, Murat Mustafa; Tunc, Murat Mustafa

    2012-01-01

    Re-mining is a general framework which suggests the execution of additional data mining steps based on the results of an original data mining process. This study investigates the multi-faceted re-mining of association mining results, develops and presents a practical methodology, and shows the applicability of the developed methodology through real world data. The methodology suggests re-mining using data visualization, data envelopment analysis, and decision trees. Six hypotheses, regarding ...

  18. A decision-support system for the analysis of clinical practice patterns.

    OpenAIRE

    Balas, E A; Li, Z. R.; Mitchell, J. A.; Spencer, D. C.; Brent, E; Ewigman, B G

    1994-01-01

    Several studies documented substantial variation in medical practice patterns, but physicians often do not have adequate information on the cumulative clinical and financial effects of their decisions. The purpose of developing an expert system for the analysis of clinical practice patterns was to assist providers in analyzing and improving the process and outcome of patient care. The developed QFES (Quality Feedback Expert System) helps users in the definition and evaluation of measurable qu...

  19. Independent Component Analysis and Decision Trees for ECG Holter Recording De-Noising

    OpenAIRE

    Jakub Kuzilek; Vaclav Kremen; Filip Soucek; Lenka Lhotska

    2014-01-01

    We have developed a method focusing on ECG signal de-noising using Independent component analysis (ICA). This approach combines JADE source separation and binary decision tree for identification and subsequent ECG noise removal. In order to to test the efficiency of this method comparison to standard filtering a wavelet- based de-noising method was used. Freely data available at Physionet medical data storage were evaluated. Evaluation criteria was root mean square error (RMSE) between origin...

  20. Decision Support System (DSS) for Construction Project Risk Analysis and Evaluation via Evidential Reasoning (ER)

    OpenAIRE

    Taroun, Abdulmaten

    2012-01-01

    This research explores the theory and practice of risk assessment and project evaluationand proposes novel alternatives. Reviewing literature revealed a continuous endeavourfor better project risk modelling and analysis. A number of proposals for improving theprevailing Probability-Impact (P-I) risk model can be found in literature. Moreover,researchers have investigated the feasibility of different theories in analysing projectrisk. Furthermore, various decision support systems (DSSs) are av...

  1. INEEL Subsurface Disposal Area CERCLA-based Decision Analysis for Technology Screening and Remedial Alternative Evaluation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Parnell, G. S.; Kloeber, Jr. J.; Westphal, D; Fung, V.; Richardson, John Grant

    2000-03-01

    A CERCLA-based decision analysis methodology for alternative evaluation and technology screening has been developed for application at the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory WAG 7 OU13/14 Subsurface Disposal Area (SDA). Quantitative value functions derived from CERCLA balancing criteria in cooperation with State and Federal regulators are presented. A weighted criteria hierarchy is also summarized that relates individual value function numerical values to an overall score for a specific technology alternative.

  2. Plastic Surgeon Expertise in Predicting Breast Reconstruction Outcomes for Patient Decision Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Clement S. Sun, MS

    2013-11-01

    Conclusions: The use of individual plastic surgeon–elicited probability information is not encouraged unless the individual’s prediction skill has been evaluated. In the absence of this information, a group consensus on the probability of outcomes is preferred. Without a large evidence base for calculating probabilities, estimates assessed from a group of plastic surgeons may be acceptable for purposes of breast reconstruction decision analysis.

  3. Demonstration of risk-based decision analysis in remedial alternative selection and design

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Evans, E.K.; Duffield, G.M. (Geraghty and Miller Modeling Group, Reston, VA (United States)); Massmann, J.W. (Washington Univ., Seattle, WA (United States)); Freeze, R.A. (Freeze (R.A.) Engineering, Inc., White Rock, BC (Canada)); Stephenson, D.E. (Westinghouse Savannah River Co., Aiken, SC (United States))

    1993-01-01

    This study demonstrates the use of risk-based decision analysis (Massmann and Freeze 1987a, 1987b) in the selection and design of an engineering alternative for groundwater remediation at a waste site at the Savannah River Site, a US Department of Energy facility in South Carolina. The investigation focuses on the remediation and closure of the H-Area Seepage Basins, an inactive disposal site that formerly received effluent water from a nearby production facility. A previous study by Duffield et al. (1992), which used risk-based decision analysis to screen a number of ground-water remediation alternatives under consideration for this site, indicated that the most attractive remedial option is ground-water extraction by wells coupled with surface water discharge of treated effluent. The aim of the present study is to demonstrate the iterative use of risk-based decision analysis throughout the design of a particular remedial alternative. In this study, we consider the interaction between two episodes of aquifer testing over a 6-year period and the refinement of a remedial extraction well system design. Using a three-dimensional ground-water flow model, this study employs (1) geostatistics and Monte Carlo techniques to simulate hydraulic conductivity as a stochastic process and (2) Bayesian updating and conditional simulation to investigate multiple phases of aquifer testing. In our evaluation of a remedial alternative, we compute probabilistic costs associated with the failure of an alternative to completely capture a simulated contaminant plume. The results of this study demonstrate the utility of risk-based decision analysis as a tool for improving the design of a remedial alternative through the course of phased data collection at a remedial site.

  4. Demonstration of risk-based decision analysis in remedial alternative selection and design

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Evans, E.K.; Duffield, G.M. [Geraghty and Miller Modeling Group, Reston, VA (United States); Massmann, J.W. [Washington Univ., Seattle, WA (United States); Freeze, R.A. [Freeze (R.A.) Engineering, Inc., White Rock, BC (Canada); Stephenson, D.E. [Westinghouse Savannah River Co., Aiken, SC (United States)

    1993-05-01

    This study demonstrates the use of risk-based decision analysis (Massmann and Freeze 1987a, 1987b) in the selection and design of an engineering alternative for groundwater remediation at a waste site at the Savannah River Site, a US Department of Energy facility in South Carolina. The investigation focuses on the remediation and closure of the H-Area Seepage Basins, an inactive disposal site that formerly received effluent water from a nearby production facility. A previous study by Duffield et al. (1992), which used risk-based decision analysis to screen a number of ground-water remediation alternatives under consideration for this site, indicated that the most attractive remedial option is ground-water extraction by wells coupled with surface water discharge of treated effluent. The aim of the present study is to demonstrate the iterative use of risk-based decision analysis throughout the design of a particular remedial alternative. In this study, we consider the interaction between two episodes of aquifer testing over a 6-year period and the refinement of a remedial extraction well system design. Using a three-dimensional ground-water flow model, this study employs (1) geostatistics and Monte Carlo techniques to simulate hydraulic conductivity as a stochastic process and (2) Bayesian updating and conditional simulation to investigate multiple phases of aquifer testing. In our evaluation of a remedial alternative, we compute probabilistic costs associated with the failure of an alternative to completely capture a simulated contaminant plume. The results of this study demonstrate the utility of risk-based decision analysis as a tool for improving the design of a remedial alternative through the course of phased data collection at a remedial site.

  5. Outsourcing and acquisition models comparison related to IT supplier selection decision analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Grossi, Lucas Gonçalves; Calvo-Manzano Villalon, Jose Antonio

    2012-01-01

    This paper presents a comparison of acquisition models related to decision analysis of IT supplier selection. The main standards are: Capability Maturity Model Integration for Acquisition (CMMI-ACQ), ISO / IEC 12207 Information Technology / Software Life Cycle Processes, IEEE 1062 Recommended Practice for Software Acquisition, the IT Infrastructure Library (ITIL) and the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK) guide. The objective of this paper is to compare the previous models to find t...

  6. Influential decision factors of counterfeit consumers in Shijiazhuang city of China: A Logit analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Safa, Mohammad Samaun; Jessica, Wang Jing

    2005-01-01

    The policies implemented towards open-economy by the Chinese government encouraged adopting foreign technology or marketing techniques. Counterfeiting has been found to be an antagonistic consequence of the policy. The study has attempted to determine the socio-demographic attributes that influence the decision of buying counterfeit. Using convenience sampling technique 301 samples were collected. Descriptive statistics, non-parametric mean test, spearman correlation and logit analysis were e...

  7. Risk-based economic decision analysis of remediation options at a PCE-contaminated site

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lemming, Gitte; Friis-Hansen, P.; Bjerg, Poul Løgstrup

    2010-01-01

    remediation activities. More attention is increasingly being given to these secondary environmental impacts when evaluating remediation options. This paper presents a methodology for an integrated economic decision analysis which combines assessments of remediation costs, health risk costs and potential...... a downstream groundwater well. Potential environmental impacts on the local, regional and global scales due to the site remediation activities are evaluated using life cycle assessments (LCA). The potential impacts on health and environment are converted to monetary units using a simplified cost...

  8. GIS and Multicriteria Decision Analysis for Landfill Site Selection in Al-Hashimyah Qadaa

    OpenAIRE

    Mohammad Ali Alanbari; Nadhir Al-Ansari; Hadeel Kareem Jasim

    2014-01-01

    Waste management system is not well regulated in Iraq. Despite the fact that there are various techniques used for solid waste disposal, landfill is the most common mode for the disposal of solid waste in Iraq, landfill site selection criteria is quite complex process and it depends on several regulation and factors. In this study landfill site selection is performed by using Multicriteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) and Geographic Information System (GIS) for the Al-Hashi...

  9. Factors determining the location decisions of Spanish MNEs: an analysis based on the investment development path

    OpenAIRE

    Jose I Galan; Javier Gonzalez-Benito; Jose A Zuñiga-Vincente

    2007-01-01

    On the basis of theoretical assumptions approached via the investment development path (IDP), this study examines the most important factors for and against the location decisions in foreign direct investment taken by multinational enterprises, considering host countries at very different stages of economic development (Latin American and European Union countries). We carry out different kinds of analysis on a sample of 103 firms belonging to a medium-sized country that has recently achieved ...

  10. The Influence of Social Norms in Consumer Decision Making: A Meta-Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Melnyk, V.; Herpen, van, Diane; Trijp, van, J.C.M.

    2010-01-01

    Although social norms can substantially impact consumer decision making, understanding of how the specification of the norm determines its impact is limited. This meta-analysis (200 independent studies, 659 effect sizes) examines how aspects of social norm specification determine the effect of norms on attitudes, behavioral intentions, and behavior. It argues and shows that descriptive norms have a larger impact on behavior than injunctive norms, whereas injunctive norms have a larger impact ...

  11. ASPECTS OF FINANCIAL EQUILIBRIUM ANALYSIS AND ITS IMPLICATIONS IN MANAGEMENT DECISIONS

    OpenAIRE

    Daniela Cristina Solomon; Iulia Andreea Bucur

    2014-01-01

    Considering the impact of risk factors in the economic environment, this study provides to all users of financial information a possible pattern for analyzing the financial equilibrium, designed to clarify the importance of dynamic analysis of indicators characterizing the financial equilibrium of an enterprise, expressed on absolute values, especially for managers in decision-making on future work, aimed at achieving pre-established strategic and tactical objectives. Practice has shown that ...

  12. Portraying an employee performance management method based on multi-criteria decision analysis and visual techniques

    OpenAIRE

    Ishizaka, Alessio; Pereira, Vijay

    2015-01-01

    Performance appraisal is one of the most critical and indispensable human resource practices for organisations. However, it generates dissatisfaction among employees as it is often viewed as complex and ineffective. In this paper, we contribute by presenting a new performance management method that integrates multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) methods – the analytic network process (ANP) and PROMETHEE – with the visual techniques of the GAIA plane and the stacked bar chart. MCDA methods ...

  13. Multiple criteria decision analysis with consideration to place-specific values in participatory forest planning

    OpenAIRE

    Nordström, Eva-Maria; Eriksson, Ljusk Ola; Karin, Öhman

    2011-01-01

    The combination of multiple criteria decision analysis (MCDA) and participatory planning is an approach that has been applied in complex planning situations where multiple criteria of very different natures are considered, and several stakeholders or social groups are involved. The spatial character of forest planning problems adds further to the complexity, because a large number of forest stands are to be assigned different treatments at different points in time. In addition, experience fro...

  14. Flood Susceptibility Modeling: A Geo-spatial Technology Multi-criteria Decision Analysis Approach

    OpenAIRE

    Dano Umar Lawal; Abdul-Nasir Matori; Khamaruzaman Wan Yusof; Ahmad Mustafa Hashim; Mansir Aminu; Soheil Sabri; Abdul-Lateef Balogun; Imtiaz Ahmed Chandio

    2014-01-01

    Understanding the surface and subsurface condition can immensely enhance the availability of accurate flood susceptibility maps for effective management of flood catastrophe. In this study, remote sensing and Geographic Information System-based (GIS-based) Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) based on experts’ opinions has been adopted to carry out the preparedness phase of flood management. Establishing a link between the surface/subsurface conditions and flood occurrence is the major obj...

  15. ANALYSIS OF THE FINANCIAL POSITION OF THE COMPANY FOR TAKING THE APPROPRIATE MANAGEMENT DECISIONS

    OpenAIRE

    Andreeva D.

    2014-01-01

    The analysis of the financial position of the industrial company is a process of selecting, comparing and evaluating financial information. Therefore its first procedure is connected with the choice of information, from the whole corporate information flow, necessary for taking adequate management decisions. Comparing information aims to identify the most important proportions and relations, while the last procedure is connected with the evaluation and interpretation of these relations. This ...

  16. LIMITS OF SWOT ANALYSIS AND THEIR IMPACT ON DECISIONS IN EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS

    OpenAIRE

    Florin POPESCU; Cezar SCARLAT

    2015-01-01

    SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, threats) analysis is useful in the decision-making process – crucial to any organization manager and/or strategist. This study aims to add value to the existing literature on SWOT, indicating its use and limitations, showing the need to link SWOT to other strategic tools and methodologies. As the current environment is turbulent and unpredictable, and economic cycles no longer comply with traditional rules, the precaution has become extremely i...

  17. Systems Analysis – a new paradigm and decision support tools for the water framework directive

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Bruen

    2008-05-01

    Full Text Available In the early days of Systems Analysis the focus was on providing tools for optimisation, modelling and simulation for use by experts. Now there is a recognition of the need to develop and disseminate tools to assist in making decisions, negotiating compromises and communicating preferences that can easily be used by stakeholders without the need for specialist training. The Water Framework Directive (WFD requires public participation and thus provides a strong incentive for progress in this direction. This paper places the new paradigm in the context of the classical one and discusses some of the new approaches which can be used in the implementation of the WFD. These include multi-criteria decision support methods suitable for environmental problems, adaptive management, cognitive mapping, social learning and cooperative design and group decision-making. Concordance methods (such as ELECTRE and the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP are identified as multi-criteria methods that can be readily integrated into Decision Support Systems (DSS that deal with complex environmental issues with very many criteria, some of which are qualitative. The expanding use of the new paradigm provides an opportunity to observe and learn from the interaction of stakeholders with the new technology and to assess its effectiveness.

  18. Rural tourism spatial distribution based on multi-criteria decision analysis and GIS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Hongxian; Yang, Qingsheng

    2008-10-01

    To study spatial distribution of rural tourism can provide scientific decision basis for developing rural economics. Traditional ways of tourism spatial distribution have some limitations in quantifying priority locations of tourism development on small units. They can only produce the overall tourism distribution locations and whether locations are suitable to tourism development simply while the tourism develop ranking with different decision objectives should be considered. This paper presents a way to find ranking of location of rural tourism development in spatial by integrating multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) and geography information system (GIS). In order to develop country economics with inconvenient transportation, undeveloped economy and better tourism resource, these locations should be firstly develop rural tourism. Based on this objective, the tourism develop priority utility of each town is calculated with MCDA and GIS. Towns which should be first develop rural tourism can be selected with higher tourism develop priority utility. The method is used to find ranking of location of rural tourism in Ningbo City successfully. The result shows that MCDA is an effective way for distribution rural tourism in spatial based on special decision objectives and rural tourism can promote economic development.

  19. Multi-criteria decision analysis for waste management in Saharawi refugee camps

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The aim of this paper is to compare different waste management solutions in Saharawi refugee camps (Algeria) and to test the feasibility of a decision-making method developed to be applied in particular conditions in which environmental and social aspects must be considered. It is based on multi criteria analysis, and in particular on the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), a mathematical technique for multi-criteria decision making (Saaty, T.L., 1980. The Analytic Hierarchy Process. McGraw-Hill, New York, USA; Saaty, T.L., 1990. How to Make a Decision: The Analytic Hierarchy Process. European Journal of Operational Research; Saaty, T.L., 1994. Decision Making for Leaders: The Analytic Hierarchy Process in a Complex World. RWS Publications, Pittsburgh, PA), and on participatory approach, focusing on local community's concerns. The research compares four different waste collection and management alternatives: waste collection by using three tipper trucks, disposal and burning in an open area; waste collection by using seven dumpers and disposal in a landfill; waste collection by using seven dumpers and three tipper trucks and disposal in a landfill; waste collection by using three tipper trucks and disposal in a landfill. The results show that the second and the third solutions provide better scenarios for waste management. Furthermore, the discussion of the results points out the multidisciplinarity of the approach, and the equilibrium between social, environmental and technical impacts. This is a very important aspect in a humanitarian and environmental project, confirming the appropriateness of the chosen method.

  20. Celebrity Health Announcements and Online Health Information Seeking: An Analysis of Angelina Jolie's Preventative Health Decision.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dean, Marleah

    2016-01-01

    On May 14, 2013, Angelina Jolie disclosed she carries BRCA1, which means she has an 87% risk of developing breast cancer during her lifetime. Jolie decided to undergo a preventative bilateral mastectomy (PBM), reducing her risk to 5%. The purpose of this study was to analyze the type of information individuals are exposed to when using the Internet to search health information regarding Jolie's decision. Qualitative content analysis revealed four main themes--information about genetics, information about a PBM, information about health care, and information about Jolie's gender identity. Broadly, the identified websites mention Jolie's high risk for developing cancer due to the genetic mutation BRCA1, describe a PBM occasionally noting reasons why she had this surgery and providing alternatives to the surgery, discuss issues related to health care services, costs, and insurances about Jolie's health decision, and portray Jolie as a sexual icon, a partner to Brad Pitt, a mother of six children, and an inspirational humanitarian. The websites also depict Jolie's health decision in positive, negative, and/or both ways. Discussion centers on how this actress' health decision impacts the public. PMID:26574936

  1. Systems Analysis - a new paradigm and decision support tools for the water framework directive

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bruen, M.

    2008-05-01

    In the early days of Systems Analysis the focus was on providing tools for optimisation, modelling and simulation for use by experts. Now there is a recognition of the need to develop and disseminate tools to assist in making decisions, negotiating compromises and communicating preferences that can easily be used by stakeholders without the need for specialist training. The Water Framework Directive (WFD) requires public participation and thus provides a strong incentive for progress in this direction. This paper places the new paradigm in the context of the classical one and discusses some of the new approaches which can be used in the implementation of the WFD. These include multi-criteria decision support methods suitable for environmental problems, adaptive management, cognitive mapping, social learning and cooperative design and group decision-making. Concordance methods (such as ELECTRE) and the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) are identified as multi-criteria methods that can be readily integrated into Decision Support Systems (DSS) that deal with complex environmental issues with very many criteria, some of which are qualitative. The expanding use of the new paradigm provides an opportunity to observe and learn from the interaction of stakeholders with the new technology and to assess its effectiveness.

  2. Comparing the sustainability of U.S. electricity options through multi-criteria decision analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sustainable energy decision-making requires comparing energy options across a wide range of economic, environmental, social and technical implications. However, such comparisons based on quantitative data are currently limited at the national level. This is the first comparison of 13 currently operational renewable and non-renewable options for new US electricity generation using multi-criteria decision analysis with quantitative input values (minimum, nominal, and maximum) for 8 sustainability criteria (levelized cost of energy, life cycle greenhouse gas and criteria air pollutant emissions, land and water use, accident-related fatalities, jobs, and annual capacity factor) and 10 representative decision-maker preference scenarios. Results across several preference scenarios indicate that biopower and geothermal (flash and binary) currently score highest in sustainability for the US. Other renewable energy technologies generally offer substantial sustainability improvements over fossil fuel or nuclear technologies, and nuclear is preferable to fossil fuels in most scenarios. The relatively low ranking of natural gas combined cycle in most preference scenarios should encourage caution in adopting NGCC as a “bridge” to renewables. Although NGCC ranks high under economic and technical preference scenarios, renewables actually rank higher in both scenarios (hydro – economic; geothermal and biopower – technical). - Highlights: • Compares 13 electricity options across 8 sustainability criteria. • Considers technical, economic, environmental, and social sustainability criteria. • Examines tradeoffs under 10 representative decision-maker preferences. • Includes policy implications for developing new electricity generation capacity in the US. • Biopower and geothermal consistently rank high across several preference scenarios

  3. Diseño de una mesa con enchufes incorporados

    OpenAIRE

    Castillo Betorz, Juan

    2009-01-01

    Necesidades tecnológicas en la docencia universitaria requieren un sistema para proporcionar electricidad a partir de enchufes en los escritorios del alumnado. Este sistema debe proporcionar una gran movilidad de las mesas para que puedan colocarse según los requerimientos de cada clase. También se deben facilitar las tareas de mantenimiento y limpieza, y evitar el cableado por el suelo para mejorar la accesibilidad a las aulas con silla de ruedas. El sistema consistirá en l...

  4. Zahtjevi dobrobiti i kakvoća mesa

    OpenAIRE

    Njari, Bela; Mioković, Branimir; Kozačinski, Lidija; Dobranić, Vesna; Zdolec, Nevijo; FIlipović, Ivana; Mikuš, Tomislav

    2012-01-01

    Sažetak Više od 260 milijuna goveda, ovaca i svinja usmrti se svake godine u Europskoj uniji. To je preko 1 milijun svaki radni dan odnosno – oko 40 životinja svake sekunde. Ova je brojka u stalnom porastu jer je i konzumacija bjelančevina životinjskog podrijetla sve učestalija, pa je potrebno opreznije i kvalitetnije provoditi dobrobit u cijelom procesu proizvodnje crvenog mesa. Prvi korak u provođenju dobrobiti je identificirati faze klaoničke obrade životinja, i kroz svaku od njih provesti...

  5. Samodostatnost Republike Hrvatske u proizvodnji goveđeg mesa

    OpenAIRE

    Grgić, prof. dr. sc. Ivo; Zrakić, mag. ing. agr., Magdalena

    2015-01-01

    Tendencije u govedarstvu su jedan od pokazatelja poljoprivrednog razvitka, a meso predstavlja važan dio prehrane značajnog dijela stanovnika zemalja EU. Na razinu potrošnje najveći utjecaj ima dohodak stanovništva, a znatno manje drugi čimbenici kao što su prehrambene navike, religijski, zdravstveni i drugi razlozi. Iako se broj goveda u EU stalno smanjuje, Unija je i dalje jedno od najvećih svjetskih tržišta mesa. I u Hrvatskoj se bilježi smanjenje broja goveda (za oko 3% za razdoblje 2008/2...

  6. Improvement and analysis of ID3 algorithm in decision-making tree

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Xiao-Lan; Long, Zhen; Liao, Wen-Qi

    2015-12-01

    For the cooperative system under development, it needs to use the spatial analysis and relative technology concerning data mining in order to carry out the detection of the subject conflict and redundancy, while the ID3 algorithm is an important data mining. Due to the traditional ID3 algorithm in the decision-making tree towards the log part is rather complicated, this paper obtained a new computational formula of information gain through the optimization of algorithm of the log part. During the experiment contrast and theoretical analysis, it is found that IID3 (Improved ID3 Algorithm) algorithm owns higher calculation efficiency and accuracy and thus worth popularizing.

  7. Decision Support System Mine Problem Solver for Nonlinear Multi-Criteria Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Kaden, S.; Kreglewski, T.

    1986-01-01

    The Decision Support System MINE has been developed for the analysis of regional water policies in open-pit lignite mining areas. It is based on a two-level model approach. The first-level planning model is used for the estimation of rational strategies of long-term development applying dynamic multi-criteria analysis. The second-level management model considers managerial/operational aspects for shorter time steps (monthly and yearly). The paper describes the problem solver for multi-cr...

  8. MESA: Supporting Teaching and Learning about the Marine Environment--Primary Science Focus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Preston, Christine

    2010-01-01

    The Marine Education Society of Australasia (MESA) Inc. is a national organisation of marine educators that aims to bring together people interested in the study and enjoyment of coastal and marine environments. MESA representatives and members organise education and interpretation activities in support of schools and communities during a number…

  9. 75 FR 46945 - Proposed Collection; Comment Request; Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) Event...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-08-04

    ... Atherosclerosis (MESA) Event Surveillance SUMMARY: In compliance with the requirement of Section 3506(c)(2)(A) of... (MESA) Event Surveillance. Type of Information Request: Renewal (OMB No. 0925-0493). Need and Use of... of appropriate automated, electronic, mechanical, or other technological collection techniques...

  10. 76 FR 22075 - Divide Ranger District, Rio Grande National Forest; CO; Black Mesa Vegetation Management Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-04-20

    ... Vegetation Management Project AGENCY: Forest Service, USDA. ACTION: Notice of intent to prepare an... Mesa Vegetation Management Project Public Comment. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Diana McGinn at 719... for Action The purpose and need for the Black Mesa Vegetation Management Project is move...

  11. Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis for Health Care Decision Making--Emerging Good Practices: Report 2 of the ISPOR MCDA Emerging Good Practices Task Force.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marsh, Kevin; IJzerman, Maarten; Thokala, Praveen; Baltussen, Rob; Boysen, Meindert; Kaló, Zoltán; Lönngren, Thomas; Mussen, Filip; Peacock, Stuart; Watkins, John; Devlin, Nancy

    2016-01-01

    Health care decisions are complex and involve confronting trade-offs between multiple, often conflicting objectives. Using structured, explicit approaches to decisions involving multiple criteria can improve the quality of decision making. A set of techniques, known under the collective heading, multiple criteria decision analysis (MCDA), are useful for this purpose. In 2014, ISPOR established an Emerging Good Practices Task Force. The task force's first report defined MCDA, provided examples of its use in health care, described the key steps, and provided an overview of the principal methods of MCDA. This second task force report provides emerging good-practice guidance on the implementation of MCDA to support health care decisions. The report includes: a checklist to support the design, implementation and review of an MCDA; guidance to support the implementation of the checklist; the order in which the steps should be implemented; illustrates how to incorporate budget constraints into an MCDA; provides an overview of the skills and resources, including available software, required to implement MCDA; and future research directions. PMID:27021745

  12. Innovation and decision-making process in reverse logistics: a bibliometric analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fernando Antonio Guimarães Tenório

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available This work aimed to make a bibliometric analysis on empirical studies that focus on the reverse logistics process. Papers published in two major events of management and a production engineering were collected during the years 2007-2012. To perform the analysis assumptions were adopted as the concepts of innovation and decision-making. 43 articles were analyzed and it was found that, in most cases, organizations choose to deploy reverse logistics as a means to solving problems related to environmental laws and regulations and after its implementation, the decision-making process related to the network of companies that perform reverse logistics remains restricted to the adopter company, thus becoming a centralized decision-making process. It was also found that reverse logistics is, in most cases, an innovation in the supply chain, it provides a new way to manage and operate the return and recycling of waste products and generating competitive advantages in the form of increased net income and better picture of the organization to its partners and customers.

  13. A decision-making framework for protecting process plants from flooding based on fault tree analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The protection of process plants from external events is mandatory in the Seveso Directive. Among these events figures the possibility of inundation of a plant, which may cause a hazard by disabling technical components and obviating operator interventions. A methodological framework for dealing with hazards from potential flooding events is presented. It combines an extension of the fault tree method with generic properties of flooding events in rivers and of dikes, which should be adapted to site-specific characteristics in a concrete case. Thus, a rational basis for deciding whether upgrading is required or not and which of the components should be upgraded is provided. Both the deterministic and the probabilistic approaches are compared. Preference is given to the probabilistic one. The conclusions drawn naturally depend on the scope and detail of the model calculations and the decision criterion adopted. The latter has to be supplied from outside the analysis, e.g. by the analyst himself, the plant operator or the competent authority. It turns out that decision-making is only viable if the boundary conditions for both the procedure of analysis and the decision criterion are clear.

  14. On the Nirex MADA [Multi-Attribute Decision Analysis]. Proof of evidence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Proof of Evidence is given by an expert witness on behalf of Greenpeace Ltd as part of their submission to a Planning Inquiry in 1995 hearing the application of UK Nirex Ltd for permission to construct an underground Rock Characterisation Facility (RCF) at a site near Sellafield. The RCF is part of an investigation by Nirex into a suitable site for the disposal of radioactive waste. The evidence concerns the use by Nirex of a technique known as Multi-Attribute Decision Analysis (MADA) in support of their decision to concentrate their studies on the Sellafield site. Potentially, MADA offers a highly effective methodology for making difficult political decisions involving a mixture of technical, social and economic considerations. Its proper use, however, relies on: drawing an explicit distinction between relatively technical ''performance scores'' and wholly subjective ''importance weightings''; a clearly expressed and agreed scope for the analysis; the inclusion of a wide range of perspectives; systematic and comprehensive sensitivity testing of the implications of varying data, assumptions and value judgements; optimising the choice of option under each perspective; presenting explicit data, assumptions, transparent methodologies and accessible procedures for critical evaluation and public peer review. It is concluded that Nirex's MADA seems to be seriously deficient in relation to many of these principles. (9 references). (UK)

  15. Seismic slope-performance analysis: from hazard map to decision support system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miles, Scott B.; Keefer, David K.; Ho, Carlton L.

    1999-01-01

    In response to the growing recognition of engineers and decision-makers of the regional effects of earthquake-induced landslides, this paper presents a general approach to conducting seismic landslide zonation, based on the popular Newmark's sliding block analogy for modeling coherent landslides. Four existing models based on the sliding block analogy are compared. The comparison shows that the models forecast notably different levels of slope performance. Considering this discrepancy along with the limitations of static maps as a decision tool, a spatial decision support system (SDSS) for seismic landslide analysis is proposed, which will support investigations over multiple scales for any number of earthquake scenarios and input conditions. Most importantly, the SDSS will allow use of any seismic landslide analysis model and zonation approach. Developments associated with the SDSS will produce an object-oriented model for encapsulating spatial data, an object-oriented specification to allow construction of models using modular objects, and a direct-manipulation, dynamic user-interface that adapts to the particular seismic landslide model configuration.

  16. Multiple Criteria Decision Making by Generalized Data Envelopment Analysis Introducing Aspiration Level Method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    It has been proved in problems with 2-objective functions that genetic algorithms (GAs) are well utilized for generating Pareto optimal solutions, and then decision making can be easily performed on the basis of visualized Pareto optimal solutions. However, GAs are difficult to visualize Pareto optimal solutions in cases in which the number of objective function is more than 4. Hence, it is trouble some to grasp the trade-off among many objective functions, and decision makers hesitate to choose a final solution from a number of Pareto optimal solutions. In order to solve these problems, we suggest an aspiration level approach to the method using the generalized data envelopment analysis and GAs. We show that the proposed method supports decision makers to choose their desirable solution from many Pareto optimal solutions. Furthermore, it will be seen that engineering design can be effectively done by the proposed method, which makes generation of several Pareto optimal solutions close to the aspiration level and trade-off analysis easily

  17. Decision support and analysis tool for planning in a semiconductor manufacturing facility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fargher, Hugh E.; Smith, Richard A.

    1994-03-01

    As part of the recently completed Microelectronics Manufacturing Science and Technology (MMST) project, a decision support and analysis tool for planning in a semiconductor manufacturing facility has been developed. Design of the planning system uses an object- oriented approach, and implementation is performed in the Smalltalk programming environment. The system continually maintains a plan for wafer release into a facility, and predicts processing completion dates. The system has been built to run in a distributed environment, allowing simultaneous users in different parts of the facility. The system also provides several types of what-if analysis, both on the existing production plan and on production data. Production plan analysis is used to assist in making operational decisions related to the facility in its current state, such as determining the least disruptive time to take a piece of equipment down for maintenance. Production data analysis, which can be performed independent of the production plan, determines information such as equipment throughput rates to achieve given product cycle-times. All planning is performed using artificial intelligence search techniques, and is based on a time-phased capacity model of the facility. Uncertainty inherent in production data, such as cycle-times, is modeled using fuzzy arithmetic. This tool was used during the final 1000 wafer demonstration for MMST, and is currently being installed in other semiconductor manufacturing facilities. This paper describes the main goals of the planning system, the overall approach to planning and analysis, and a brief description of the current status.

  18. Baseline studies in the desert ecosystem at East Mesa Geothermal Test Site, Imperial Valley, California

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Romney, E.M.; Wallace, A.; Lunt, O.R.; Ackerman, T.A.; Kinnear, J.E.

    1977-09-01

    Baseline data reported herein for soil, vegetation, and small mammal components of the East Mesa desert ecosystem represent a collection period from October 1975 to September 1977. Inasmuch as changes in salt balance from geothermal brine sources are of potential impact upon the ecosystem, considerable analytical effort was given to the determination of element constituents in soil, plant, and animal samples. A preliminary synthesis of data was done to investigate the heterogeneity of element constituents among the sampled population and to summarize results. Findings indicate that periodic sampling and chemical analysis of vegetation around an industrialized geothermal energy source is probably the best way to monitor the surrounding ecosystem for assuring containment of any resource pollutants.

  19. Integrating clinicians, knowledge and data: expert-based cooperative analysis in healthcare decision support

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    García-Alonso Carlos

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Decision support in health systems is a highly difficult task, due to the inherent complexity of the process and structures involved. Method This paper introduces a new hybrid methodology Expert-based Cooperative Analysis (EbCA, which incorporates explicit prior expert knowledge in data analysis methods, and elicits implicit or tacit expert knowledge (IK to improve decision support in healthcare systems. EbCA has been applied to two different case studies, showing its usability and versatility: 1 Bench-marking of small mental health areas based on technical efficiency estimated by EbCA-Data Envelopment Analysis (EbCA-DEA, and 2 Case-mix of schizophrenia based on functional dependency using Clustering Based on Rules (ClBR. In both cases comparisons towards classical procedures using qualitative explicit prior knowledge were made. Bayesian predictive validity measures were used for comparison with expert panels results. Overall agreement was tested by Intraclass Correlation Coefficient in case "1" and kappa in both cases. Results EbCA is a new methodology composed by 6 steps:. 1 Data collection and data preparation; 2 acquisition of "Prior Expert Knowledge" (PEK and design of the "Prior Knowledge Base" (PKB; 3 PKB-guided analysis; 4 support-interpretation tools to evaluate results and detect inconsistencies (here Implicit Knowledg -IK- might be elicited; 5 incorporation of elicited IK in PKB and repeat till a satisfactory solution; 6 post-processing results for decision support. EbCA has been useful for incorporating PEK in two different analysis methods (DEA and Clustering, applied respectively to assess technical efficiency of small mental health areas and for case-mix of schizophrenia based on functional dependency. Differences in results obtained with classical approaches were mainly related to the IK which could be elicited by using EbCA and had major implications for the decision making in both cases. Discussion This

  20. Boja kao čimbenik kakvoće janjećeg mesa

    OpenAIRE

    Kaić, dipl.ing.agr., Ana; Mioč, Prof.dr.sc. Boro; Kasap, dipl.ing.agr., Ante

    2012-01-01

    Sažetak Kakvoća janjećeg mesa je vrlo kompleksna i višeznačna osobina. Od brojnih čimbenika većina autora ističe važan, a neki od njih i presudan utjecaj boje na kakvoću mesa. Do danas su razvijene brojne metode instrumentalnog mjerenja boje mesa kojima se može mjeriti različit raspon spektra boja. U novije vrijeme, najčešće se koriste uređaji poput Minolte ili Labscana koji prema referentnoj metodi mjere boju mesa L*, a* i b* vrijednostima. Boja svježeg mesa uglavnom je rezultat ...

  1. Low-Level Waste Vitrification Plant Project contracting strategy decision analysis report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ten basic contracting strategies were developed after a review of past strategies that had been used at the Hanford Site, other US Department of Energy (DOE) sites, other US government agencies, and in the private sector. As applicable to the Low-Level Waste Vitrification Plant (LLWVP) Project, each strategy was described and depicted in a schedule format to assess compatibility with the Hanford Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order, al so known as the Tri-Party Agreement (Ecology et al. 1994) milestones, key decision points, and other project requirements. The-pro and con aspects of each strategy also were tabulated. Using this information as a basis, the LLWVP Project team members, along with representatives of Tank Waste Remediation System (TWRS) Engineering, TWRS Programs, and Procurement Materials Management, formed a Westinghouse Hanford Company (WHC) evaluation team to select the best strategy. Kepner-Tregoe decision analysis techniques were used in facilitated meetings to arrive at the best balanced choice

  2. Geospatial analysis and decision support for health services planning in Uganda

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shuaib Lwasa

    2007-11-01

    Full Text Available As the utilization of geospatial techniques continues to surge, spatial information has become an integral part of decision-making. In Uganda, the use of geospatial techniques in provision of health services planning has gained momentum after a comprehensive survey of health units and the development of a national health services geodatabase. Planning for the provision of health infrastructure services requires quality information to rationalize the location, and allocation, of services in relation to the population. Health service planners are always faced with a question of where to locate services in relation to need and how such distribution would be affected by resources to meet the requirements of the population. Because resources are scarce, prioritization is indispensable and thorough analysis becomes important in the planning process. This paper analyzes access to health facilities using the population gridding approach, coupled with location of health infrastructure facilities for decision support in health services planning.

  3. Path Analysis Examining Self-Efficacy and Decision-Making Performance on a Simulated Baseball Task

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hepler, Teri J.; Feltz, Deborah L.

    2012-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to examine the relationship between decision-making self-efficacy and decision-making performance in sport. Undergraduate students (N = 78) performed 10 trials of a decision-making task in baseball. Self-efficacy was measured before performing each trial. Decision-making performance was assessed by decision speed and…

  4. Corrective Action Investigation Plan for Corrective Action Unit 99: Rainier Mesa/Shoshone Mountain, Nevada Test Site, Nevada with Errata and ROTC 1, Rev. No. 0

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McCord, John; Marutzky, Sam

    2004-12-01

    volcanic rocks that erupted from the caldera as well as from more distant sources. This has resulted in a layered volcanic stratigraphy composed of thick deposits of welded and nonwelded ash-flow tuff and lava flows. These deposits are proximal to the source caldera and are interstratified with the more distal facies of fallout tephra and bedded reworked tuff from more distant sources. In each area, a similar volcanic sequence was deposited upon Paleozoic carbonate and siliciclastic rocks that are disrupted by various thrust faults, normal faults, and strike-slip faults. In both Rainier Mesa (km) to the southwest, and Tippipah Spring, 4 km to the north, and the tunnel complex is dry. Particle-tracking simulations performed during the value of information analysis (VOIA) (SNJV, 2004b) indicate that most of the regional groundwater that underlies the test locations at Rainier Mesa and Shoshone Mountain eventually follows similar and parallel paths and ultimately discharges in Death Valley and the Amargosa Desert. Particle-tracking simulations conducted for the regional groundwater flow and risk assessment indicated that contamination from Rainier Mesa and Shoshone Mountain were unlikely to leave the NTS during the 1,000-year period of interest (DOE/NV, 1997a). It is anticipated that CAU-scale modeling will modify these results somewhat, but it is not expected to radically alter the outcome of these previous particle-tracking simulations within the 1,000-year period of interest. The Rainier Mesa/Shoshone Mountain CAIP describes the corrective action investigation (CAI) to be conducted at the Rainier Mesa/Shoshone Mountain CAU to evaluate the extent of contamination in groundwater due to the underground nuclear testing. The CAI will be conducted by the UGTA Project, which is part of the NNSA/NSO Environmental Restoration Project (ERP). The purpose and scope of the CAI are presented in this section, followed by a summary of the entire document.

  5. Decision analysis for conservation breeding: Maximizing production for reintroduction of whooping cranes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, D.H.V.; Converse, S.J.; Gibson, K.W.; Moehrenschlager, A.; Link, W.A.; Olsen, G.H.; Maguire, K.

    2011-01-01

    Captive breeding is key to management of severely endangered species, but maximizing captive production can be challenging because of poor knowledge of species breeding biology and the complexity of evaluating different management options. In the face of uncertainty and complexity, decision-analytic approaches can be used to identify optimal management options for maximizing captive production. Building decision-analytic models requires iterations of model conception, data analysis, model building and evaluation, identification of remaining uncertainty, further research and monitoring to reduce uncertainty, and integration of new data into the model. We initiated such a process to maximize captive production of the whooping crane (Grus americana), the world's most endangered crane, which is managed through captive breeding and reintroduction. We collected 15 years of captive breeding data from 3 institutions and used Bayesian analysis and model selection to identify predictors of whooping crane hatching success. The strongest predictor, and that with clear management relevance, was incubation environment. The incubation period of whooping crane eggs is split across two environments: crane nests and artificial incubators. Although artificial incubators are useful for allowing breeding pairs to produce multiple clutches, our results indicate that crane incubation is most effective at promoting hatching success. Hatching probability increased the longer an egg spent in a crane nest, from 40% hatching probability for eggs receiving 1 day of crane incubation to 95% for those receiving 30 days (time incubated in each environment varied independently of total incubation period). Because birds will lay fewer eggs when they are incubating longer, a tradeoff exists between the number of clutches produced and egg hatching probability. We developed a decision-analytic model that estimated 16 to be the optimal number of days of crane incubation needed to maximize the number of

  6. Harnessing Ecosystem Models and Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis for the Support of Forest Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolfslehner, Bernhard; Seidl, Rupert

    2010-12-01

    The decision-making environment in forest management (FM) has changed drastically during the last decades. Forest management planning is facing increasing complexity due to a widening portfolio of forest goods and services, a societal demand for a rational, transparent decision process and rising uncertainties concerning future environmental conditions (e.g., climate change). Methodological responses to these challenges include an intensified use of ecosystem models to provide an enriched, quantitative information base for FM planning. Furthermore, multi-criteria methods are increasingly used to amalgamate information, preferences, expert judgments and value expressions, in support of the participatory and communicative dimensions of modern forestry. Although the potential of combining these two approaches has been demonstrated in a number of studies, methodological aspects in interfacing forest ecosystem models (FEM) and multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) are scarcely addressed explicitly. In this contribution we review the state of the art in FEM and MCDA in the context of FM planning and highlight some of the crucial issues when combining ecosystem and preference modeling. We discuss issues and requirements in selecting approaches suitable for supporting FM planning problems from the growing body of FEM and MCDA concepts. We furthermore identify two major challenges in a harmonized application of FEM-MCDA: (i) the design and implementation of an indicator-based analysis framework capturing ecological and social aspects and their interactions relevant for the decision process, and (ii) holistic information management that supports consistent use of different information sources, provides meta-information as well as information on uncertainties throughout the planning process.

  7. MODULES FOR EXPERIMENTS IN STELLAR ASTROPHYSICS (MESA): PLANETS, OSCILLATIONS, ROTATION, AND MASSIVE STARS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    We substantially update the capabilities of the open source software package Modules for Experiments in Stellar Astrophysics (MESA), and its one-dimensional stellar evolution module, MESA star. Improvements in MESA star's ability to model the evolution of giant planets now extends its applicability down to masses as low as one-tenth that of Jupiter. The dramatic improvement in asteroseismology enabled by the space-based Kepler and CoRoT missions motivates our full coupling of the ADIPLS adiabatic pulsation code with MESA star. This also motivates a numerical recasting of the Ledoux criterion that is more easily implemented when many nuclei are present at non-negligible abundances. This impacts the way in which MESA star calculates semi-convective and thermohaline mixing. We exhibit the evolution of 3-8 M☉ stars through the end of core He burning, the onset of He thermal pulses, and arrival on the white dwarf cooling sequence. We implement diffusion of angular momentum and chemical abundances that enable calculations of rotating-star models, which we compare thoroughly with earlier work. We introduce a new treatment of radiation-dominated envelopes that allows the uninterrupted evolution of massive stars to core collapse. This enables the generation of new sets of supernovae, long gamma-ray burst, and pair-instability progenitor models. We substantially modify the way in which MESA star solves the fully coupled stellar structure and composition equations, and we show how this has improved the scaling of MESA's calculational speed on multi-core processors. Updates to the modules for equation of state, opacity, nuclear reaction rates, and atmospheric boundary conditions are also provided. We describe the MESA Software Development Kit that packages all the required components needed to form a unified, maintained, and well-validated build environment for MESA. We also highlight a few tools developed by the community for rapid visualization of MESA star results

  8. Perspectives Gained in an Evaluation of Uncertainty, Sensitivity, and Decision Analysis Software

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Davis, F.J.; Helton, J.C.

    1999-02-24

    The following software packages for uncertainty, sensitivity, and decision analysis were reviewed and also tested with several simple analysis problems: Crystal Ball, RiskQ, SUSA-PC, Analytica, PRISM, Ithink, Stella, LHS, STEPWISE, and JMP. Results from the review and test problems are presented. The study resulted in the recognition of the importance of four considerations in the selection of a software package: (1) the availability of an appropriate selection of distributions, (2) the ease with which data flows through the input sampling, model evaluation, and output analysis process, (3) the type of models that can be incorporated into the analysis process, and (4) the level of confidence in the software modeling and results.

  9. East Mesa geothermal pump test facility (EMPTF). Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Olander, R.G.; Roberts, G.K.

    1984-11-28

    The design, fabrication and installation of a geothermal pump test facility (EMPFT) at the DOE geothermal site at East Mesa, California which is capable of testing 70 to 750 horsepower downwell pumps in a controlled geothermal environment were completed. The facility consists of a skid-mounted brine control module, a 160 foot below test well section, a hydraulic turbine for power recovery, a gantry-mounted hoist for pump handling and a 3-phase, 480 VAC, 1200 amp power supply to handle pump electric requirements. Geothermal brine is supplied to the EMPTF from one of the facility wells at East Mesa. The EMPTF is designed with a great amount of flexibility. The 20-inch diameter test well can accommodate a wide variety of pumps. The controls are interactive and can be adjusted to obtain a full complement of pump operation data, or set to maintain constant conditions to allow long-term testing with a minimum of operator support. The hydraulic turbine allows the EMPTF user to recover approximately 46% of the input pump power to help defray the operating cost of the unit. The hoist is provided for material handling and pump servicing and reduces the equipment that the user must supply for pump installation, inspection and removal.

  10. East Mesa geothermal pump test facility (EMPTF). Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Olander, R.G.; Roberts, G.K.

    1984-11-28

    Barber-Nichols has completed the design, fabrication and installation of a geothermal pump test facility at the DOE geothermal site at East Mesa, California which is capable of testing 70 to 750 horsepower downwell pumps in a controlled geothermal environment. The facility consists of a skid-mounted brine control module, a 160 foot below ground test well section, a hydraulic turbine for power recovery, a gantry-mounted hoist for pump handling and a 3-phase, 480 VAC, 1200 amp power supply to handle pump electric requirements. Geothermal brine is supplied to the EMPTF from one of the facility wells at East Mesa. The EMPTF is designed with a great amount of flexibility to attract the largest number of potential users. The 20-inch diameter test well can accommodate a wide variety of pumps. The controls are interactive and can be adjusted to obtain a full complement of pump operation data, or set to maintain constant conditions to allow long-term testing with a minimum of operator support. The hydraulic turbine allows the EMPTF user to recover approximately 46% of the input pump power to help defray the operating cost of the unit. The hoist is provided for material handling and pump servicing and reduces the equipment that the user must supply for pump installation, inspection and removal.

  11. MTF comparisons between mesa and planar focal plane detector structures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perley, Mitchell; Wehner, Justin; Buell, Dave; Micali, Jason; McCorkle, Joe; Rehfield, Mark; Williams, Dave; Dixon, Andrew; Malone, Neil

    2013-09-01

    Raytheon Vision Systems (RVS) has developed scanning, high-speed (ADC), mid-wave infrared (MWIR 3-5mm) focal plane arrays (FPA) with excellent modulation transfer function (MTF) performance. Using secondary ion mass spectrometry (SIMS) data and detailed models of the mesa geometry, RVS modeled the predicted detector MTF performance of detectors. These detectors have a mesa structure and geometry for improved MTF performance compared to planar HgCdTe and InSb detector structures and other similar detector structures such as nBn. The modeled data is compared to measured MTF data obtained from edge spread measurements and shows good agreement, Figure 1. The measured data was obtained using a custom advanced test set with 1µm precision alignment and automatic data acquisition for report generation in less than five minutes per FPA. The measured MTF values of 83 unique parts, Figure 2, had a standard deviation of 0.0094 and a mean absolute deviation of 0.0066 at half Nyquist frequency, showing excellent process repeatability and a design that supports high MTF with good repeatability.

  12. A submarine fan in the Mesa Central, Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silva-Romo, G.; Arellano-Gil, J.; Mendoza-Rosales, C.; Nieto-Obregón, J.

    2000-10-01

    The contact between the Guerrero and Sierra Madre tectonostratigraphic terranes has been proposed to lie in the Mesa Central, east of the city of Zacatecas. Marine Triassic units have been assigned to the Guerrero Terrane. It is here proposed that this contact occurs to the west of the city of Zacatecas and the Triassic marine sequence assigned to the Sierra Madre Terrane. We analyzed the stratigraphic record and structural features of pre-Late Jurassic sequences at four localities in the Mesa Central. They contain a marine turbiditic Triassic unit, which includes La Bellena, Taray, and Zacatecas Formations, and a continental unit of probable Middle Jurassic age. Triassic sandstones were derived from a cratonic area, without the influence of arc volcanism. The sequences were affected by two phases of deformation. The Triassic formations are unconformably overlain by a continental volcano-sedimentary sequence that contains fragments of sandstones derived from the underlying unit. Sedimentologic characteristics of the Triassic unit fit a submarine fan model. The submarine fan developed at the continental margin of Pangaea during Triassic times. Turbidite associations in the San Rafael Area indicate a middle fan depositional environment, while in the Real de Catorce Area, they correspond to the distal part (basin plain facies). At La Ballena and Zacatecas the turbidite associations occur in the middle part and perhaps the external part of the fan.

  13. Performance Evaluation of Discriminant Analysis and Decision Tree, for Weed Classification of Potato Fields

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Farshad Vesali

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available In present study we tried to recognizing weeds in potato fields to effective use from herbicides. As we know potato is one of the crops which is cultivated vastly all over the world and it is a major world food crop that is consumed by over one billion people world over, but it is threated by weed invade, because of row cropping system applied in potato tillage. Machine vision is used in this research for effective application of herbicides in field. About 300 color images from 3 potato farms of Qorveh city and 2 farms of Urmia University-Iran, was acquired. Images were acquired in different illumination condition from morning to evening in sunny and cloudy days. Because of overlap and shading of plants in farm condition it is hard to use morphologic parameters. In method used for classifying weeds and potato plants, primary color components of each plant were extracted and the relation between them was estimated for determining discriminant function and classifying plants using discrimination analysis. In addition the decision tree method was used to compare results with discriminant analysis. Three different classifications were applied: first, Classification was applied to discriminate potato plant from all other weeds (two groups, the rate of correct classification was 76.67% for discriminant analysis and 83.82% for decision tree; second classification was applied to discriminate potato plant from separate groups of each weed (6 groups, the rate of correct classification was 87%. And the third, Classification of potato plant versus weed species one by one. As the weeds were different, the results of classification were different in this composition. The decision tree in all conditions showed the better result than discriminant analysis.

  14. Risk Analysis and Decision-Making Software Package (1997 Version) User Manual

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chung, F.T.H.

    1999-02-11

    This manual provides instructions for using the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) risk analysis and decision making software (1997 version) developed at BDM Petroleum Technologies by BDM-Oklahoma, Inc. for DOE, under contract No. DE-AC22-94PC91OO8. This software provides petroleum producers with a simple, handy tool for exploration and production risk analysis and decision-making. It collects useful risk analysis tools in one package so that users do not have to use several programs separately. The software is simple to use, but still provides many functions. The 1997 version of the software package includes the following tools: (1) Investment risk (Gambler's ruin) analysis; (2) Monte Carlo simulation; (3) Best fit for distribution functions; (4) Sample and rank correlation; (5) Enhanced oil recovery method screening; and (6) artificial neural network. This software package is subject to change. Suggestions and comments from users are welcome and will be considered for future modifications and enhancements of the software. Please check the opening screen of the software for the current contact information. In the future, more tools will be added to this software package. This manual includes instructions on how to use the software but does not attempt to fully explain the theory and algorithms used to create it.

  15. Enhanced Adaptive Management: Integrating Decision Analysis, Scenario Analysis and Environmental Modeling for the Everglades

    OpenAIRE

    Convertino, Matteo; Christy M. Foran; Jeffrey M. Keisler; Scarlett, Lynn; LoSchiavo, Andy; Gregory A. Kiker; Linkov, Igor

    2013-01-01

    We propose to enhance existing adaptive management efforts with a decision-analytical approach that can guide the initial selection of robust restoration alternative plans and inform the need to adjust these alternatives in the course of action based on continuously acquired monitoring information and changing stakeholder values. We demonstrate an application of enhanced adaptive management for a wetland restoration case study inspired by the Florida Everglades restoration effort. We find tha...

  16. Integrating human and robot decision-making dynamics with feedback: Models and convergence analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Cao, Ming; Stewart, Andrew; Leonard, Naomi Ehrich

    2008-01-01

    Leveraging research by psychologists on human decision-making, we present a human-robot decision-making problem associated with a complex task and study the corresponding joint decision-making dynamics. The collaborative task is designed so that the human makes decisions just as human subjects make decisions in the two-alternative, forced-choice task, a well-studied decision-making task in behavioral experiments. The human subject chooses between two options at regular time intervals and rece...

  17. Greenfield Shopping centre development. The integration between environmental features, building design and investment analysis at the decision making stage

    OpenAIRE

    A.Vieira de Castro; Neila, J.; R.Gema Pacheco

    2014-01-01

    Shopping centre is a long term investments in which Greenfield development decisions are often taken based on risks analysis regarding construction costs, location, competition, market and an “expected” DCF. Furthermore, integration among the building design, project planning, operating costs and investment analysis is not entirely considered by the investor at the decision making stage. The absence of such information tends to produce certain negative impacts on the future running costs and ...

  18. Greenfield shopping center development. The integration between environmental features, building design and investment analysis at the decision making stage

    OpenAIRE

    Neila Gonzalez, Francisco Javier; Ramírez Pacheco, Gema Maria; Vieira, Aliane

    2014-01-01

    The Shopping centre is a long term investment in which Greenfield development decisions are often taken based on risks analysis regarding construction costs, location, competition, market and an expected DCF. Furthermore, integration between the building design, project planning, operational costs and investment analysis is not entirely considered by the investor at the decision making stage. The absence of such information tends to produce certain negative impacts on the future running costs...

  19. Priority setting for the prevention and control of cardiovascular diseases: multi-criteria decision analysis in four eastern Mediterranean countries

    OpenAIRE

    Ghandour, Rula; Shoaibi, Azza; Khatib, Rana; Abu Rmeileh, Niveen; UNAL, Belgin; Sözmen, Kaan; Kılıç, Bülent; Fouad, Fouad; Al Ali, Radwan; Ben Romdhane, Habiba; Aissi, Wafa; Ahmad, Balsam; Capewell, Simon; Critchley, Julia; Husseini, Abdullatif

    2015-01-01

    Objectives To explore the feasibility of using a simple multi-criteria decision analysis method with policy makers/key stakeholders to prioritize cardiovascular disease (CVD) policies in four Mediterranean countries: Palestine, Syria, Tunisia and Turkey. Methods A simple multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) method was piloted. A mixed methods study was used to identify a preliminary list of policy options in each country. These policies were rated by different policymakers/stakeho...

  20. A multi-criteria decision analysis assessment of waste paper management options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Highlights: ► Isolated communities have particular problems in terms of waste management. ► An MCDA tool allowed a group of non-experts to evaluate waste management options. ► The group preferred local waste management solutions to export to the mainland. ► Gasification of paper was the preferred option followed by recycling. ► The group concluded that they could be involved in the decision making process. - Abstract: The use of Multi-criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) was investigated in an exercise using a panel of local residents and stakeholders to assess the options for managing waste paper on the Isle of Wight. Seven recycling, recovery and disposal options were considered by the panel who evaluated each option against seven environmental, financial and social criteria. The panel preferred options where the waste was managed on the island with gasification and recycling achieving the highest scores. Exporting the waste to the English mainland for incineration or landfill proved to be the least preferred options. This research has demonstrated that MCDA is an effective way of involving community groups in waste management decision making

  1. Using decision analysis to estimate 3-D seismic value-Minas field, Sumatra Indonesia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mangold, K.M.; Whitacre, T.P.; Seffibudianti (Caltex Pacific Indonesia, Sumatra (Indonesia))

    1996-01-01

    Decision Analysis has been used to estimate the value added from a 3-D seismic survey recorded over Minas field, Central Sumatra. The method involves comparing the expected values which result from the various decision options, such as acquiring 3-D or not. Probabilities must be assigned to the various branches of the decision tree. These include for example, the expected reliability of the 3-D data as well as the subsequent interpretation. Anticipated drilling results with and without 3-D are assessed after reviewing historical data and interviewing experts to obtain 10th, 50th and 90th percentile results for various scenarios. In this way the expected value, or cumulative distribution of the expected value of the 3-D can be computed and risk can be assessed. The Minas 3-D survey is the largest (450 square kilometers) of over 25 development 3-D surveys recorded by Caltex Pacific Indonesia (CPI) over its fields in Central Sumatra. This survey was conducted after nearly 50 years of production from more than 750 wells. CPI's 3-D experience has shown that increasing the subsurface resolution within complex high angle faulted areas results in new drilling locations in older mature fields such as Minas. Better knowledge of the oil producing reservoirs can also be used to optimize pattern waterflood locations, horizontal drilling and other tertiary recovery studies.

  2. Using decision analysis to estimate 3-D seismic value-Minas field, Sumatra Indonesia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mangold, K.M.; Whitacre, T.P.; Seffibudianti [Caltex Pacific Indonesia, Sumatra (Indonesia)

    1996-12-31

    Decision Analysis has been used to estimate the value added from a 3-D seismic survey recorded over Minas field, Central Sumatra. The method involves comparing the expected values which result from the various decision options, such as acquiring 3-D or not. Probabilities must be assigned to the various branches of the decision tree. These include for example, the expected reliability of the 3-D data as well as the subsequent interpretation. Anticipated drilling results with and without 3-D are assessed after reviewing historical data and interviewing experts to obtain 10th, 50th and 90th percentile results for various scenarios. In this way the expected value, or cumulative distribution of the expected value of the 3-D can be computed and risk can be assessed. The Minas 3-D survey is the largest (450 square kilometers) of over 25 development 3-D surveys recorded by Caltex Pacific Indonesia (CPI) over its fields in Central Sumatra. This survey was conducted after nearly 50 years of production from more than 750 wells. CPI`s 3-D experience has shown that increasing the subsurface resolution within complex high angle faulted areas results in new drilling locations in older mature fields such as Minas. Better knowledge of the oil producing reservoirs can also be used to optimize pattern waterflood locations, horizontal drilling and other tertiary recovery studies.

  3. A Descriptive Analysis of Decision Support Systems Research Between 1990 and 2003

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Arnott

    2005-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper is the first major report of a project that is investigating the theoretic foundations of decision support systems (DSS. The project was principally motivated by a concern for the direction and relevance of DSS research. The main areas of research focus are the decision and judgement theoretic base of the discipline, the research strategies used in published articles, and the professional relevance of DSS research. The project has analysed 926 DSS articles published in 14 major journals from 1990 to 2003. The findings indicate that DSS research is more dominated by positivist research than general information systems (in particular experiments, surveys, and descriptions of specific applications and systems, is heavily influenced by the work of Herbert Simon, is poorly grounded in contemporary judgement and decision-making research, and falls down in the identification of the nature of clients and users. Of great concern is the finding that DSS research has relatively low professional relevance. An overview of the direction of further analysis is presented.

  4. A multi-criteria decision analysis assessment of waste paper management options

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hanan, Deirdre [Department of Design, Development, Environment and Materials, The Open University, Walton Hall, Milton Keynes, MK7 6AA (United Kingdom); Burnley, Stephen, E-mail: s.j.burnley@open.ac.uk [Department of Design, Development, Environment and Materials, The Open University, Walton Hall, Milton Keynes, MK7 6AA (United Kingdom); Cooke, David [Department of Design, Development, Environment and Materials, The Open University, Walton Hall, Milton Keynes, MK7 6AA (United Kingdom)

    2013-03-15

    Highlights: ► Isolated communities have particular problems in terms of waste management. ► An MCDA tool allowed a group of non-experts to evaluate waste management options. ► The group preferred local waste management solutions to export to the mainland. ► Gasification of paper was the preferred option followed by recycling. ► The group concluded that they could be involved in the decision making process. - Abstract: The use of Multi-criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) was investigated in an exercise using a panel of local residents and stakeholders to assess the options for managing waste paper on the Isle of Wight. Seven recycling, recovery and disposal options were considered by the panel who evaluated each option against seven environmental, financial and social criteria. The panel preferred options where the waste was managed on the island with gasification and recycling achieving the highest scores. Exporting the waste to the English mainland for incineration or landfill proved to be the least preferred options. This research has demonstrated that MCDA is an effective way of involving community groups in waste management decision making.

  5. An approach to siting nuclear power plants: the relevance of earthquakes, faults and decision analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The regional approach to nuclear power plant siting described in this paper identifies candidate sites within the region and ranks these sites by using decision-analysis concepts. The approach uses exclusionary criteria to eliminate areas from consideration and to identify those areas which are most likely to contain candidate sites. These areas are then examined in greater detail to identify candidate sites, and the number of sites under consideration is reduced to a reasonably manageable number, approximately 15. These sites are then ranked using concepts of decision analysis. The exclusionary criteria applied relate primarily to regulatory-agency safety requirements and essential functional requirements. Examples of such criteria include proximity to population centres, presence of active faults, and the availability of cooling water. In many areas of the world, the presence of active faults and potential negative effects of earthquakes are dominant exclusionary criteria. To apply the 'active fault' criterion the region must be studied to locate and assess the activity of all potentially active faults. This requires complementary geologic (including geomorphic), historical, seismological, geodetic and geophysical investigations of the entire region. Site response studies or empirical attenuation correlations can be used to determine the relevant parameters of anticipated shaking from postulated earthquakes, and analytical testing and evaluation can be used to assess the potential extent of ground failure during an earthquake. After candidate sites are identified, an approach based on decision analysis is used to rank them. This approach uses the preferences and judgements of consumers, utility companies, the government, and other groups concerned with siting and licensing issues in the ranking process. Both subjective and objective factors are processed in a logical manner, as are the monetary and non-monetary factors and achievement of competing environmental

  6. Configural frequency analysis as a method of determining patients' preferred decision-making roles in dialysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Loeffert Sabine

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Numerous studies examined factors in promoting a patient preference for active participation in treatment decision making with only modest success. The purpose of this study was to identify types of patients wishing to participate in treatment decisions as well as those wishing to play a completely active or passive role based on a Germany-wide survey of dialysis patients; using a prediction typal analysis method that defines types as configurations of categories belonging to different attributes and takes particularly higher order interactions between variables into account. Methods After randomly splitting the original patient sample into two halves, an exploratory prediction configural frequency analysis (CFA was performed on one-half of the sample (n = 1969 and the identified types were considered as hypotheses for an inferential prediction CFA for the second half (n = 1914. 144 possible prediction types were tested by using five predictor variables and control preferences as criterion. An α-adjustment (0.05 for multiple testing was performed by the Holm procedure. Results 21 possible prediction types were identified as hypotheses in the exploratory prediction CFA; four patient types were confirmed in the confirmatory prediction CFA: patients preferring a passive role show low information seeking preference, above average trust in their physician, perceive their physician's participatory decision-making (PDM-style positive, have a lower educational level, and are 56-75 years old (Type 1; p 76 years old (Type 2; p p p Conclusions The method prediction configural frequency analysis was newly introduced to the research field of patient participation and could demonstrate how a particular control preference role is determined by an association of five variables.

  7. Slower Perception Followed by Faster Lexical Decision in Longer Words: A Diffusion Model Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oganian, Yulia; Froehlich, Eva; Schlickeiser, Ulrike; Hofmann, Markus J.; Heekeren, Hauke R.; Jacobs, Arthur M.

    2016-01-01

    Effects of stimulus length on reaction times (RTs) in the lexical decision task are the topic of extensive research. While slower RTs are consistently found for longer pseudo-words, a finding coined the word length effect (WLE), some studies found no effects for words, and yet others reported faster RTs for longer words. Moreover, the WLE depends on the orthographic transparency of a language, with larger effects in more transparent orthographies. Here we investigate processes underlying the WLE in lexical decision in German-English bilinguals using a diffusion model (DM) analysis, which we compared to a linear regression approach. In the DM analysis, RT-accuracy distributions are characterized using parameters that reflect latent sub-processes, in particular evidence accumulation and decision-independent perceptual encoding, instead of typical parameters such as mean RT and accuracy. The regression approach showed a decrease in RTs with length for pseudo-words, but no length effect for words. However, DM analysis revealed that the null effect for words resulted from opposing effects of length on perceptual encoding and rate of evidence accumulation. Perceptual encoding times increased with length for words and pseudo-words, whereas the rate of evidence accumulation increased with length for real words but decreased for pseudo-words. A comparison between DM parameters in German and English suggested that orthographic transparency affects perceptual encoding, whereas effects of length on evidence accumulation are likely to reflect contextual information and the increase in available perceptual evidence with length. These opposing effects may account for the inconsistent findings on WLEs. PMID:26779075

  8. Markov Modeling with Soft Aggregation for Safety and Decision Analysis; TOPICAL

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The methodology in this report improves on some of the limitations of many conventional safety assessment and decision analysis methods. A top-down mathematical approach is developed for decomposing systems and for expressing imprecise individual metrics as possibilistic or fuzzy numbers. A ''Markov-like'' model is developed that facilitates combining (aggregating) inputs into overall metrics and decision aids, also portraying the inherent uncertainty. A major goal of Markov modeling is to help convey the top-down system perspective. One of the constituent methodologies allows metrics to be weighted according to significance of the attribute and aggregated nonlinearly as to contribution. This aggregation is performed using exponential combination of the metrics, since the accumulating effect of such factors responds less and less to additional factors. This is termed ''soft'' mathematical aggregation. Dependence among the contributing factors is accounted for by incorporating subjective metrics on ''overlap'' of the factors as well as by correspondingly reducing the overall contribution of these combinations to the overall aggregation. Decisions corresponding to the meaningfulness of the results are facilitated in several ways. First, the results are compared to a soft threshold provided by a sigmoid function. Second, information is provided on input ''Importance'' and ''Sensitivity,'' in order to know where to place emphasis on considering new controls that may be necessary. Third, trends in inputs and outputs are tracked in order to obtain significant information% including cyclic information for the decision process. A practical example from the air transportation industry is used to demonstrate application of the methodology. Illustrations are given for developing a structure (along with recommended inputs and weights) for air transportation oversight at three different levels, for developing and using cycle information, for developing Importance and

  9. The combined analysis of uncertainty and patient heterogeneity in medical decision models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Groot Koerkamp, Bas; Stijnen, Theo; Weinstein, Milton C; Hunink, M G Myriam

    2011-01-01

    The analysis of both patient heterogeneity and parameter uncertainty in decision models is increasingly recommended. In addition, the complexity of current medical decision models commonly requires simulating individual subjects, which introduces stochastic uncertainty. The combined analysis of uncertainty and heterogeneity often involves complex nested Monte Carlo simulations to obtain the model outcomes of interest. In this article, the authors distinguish eight model types, each dealing with a different combination of patient heterogeneity, parameter uncertainty, and stochastic uncertainty. The analyses that are required to obtain the model outcomes are expressed in equations, explained in stepwise algorithms, and demonstrated in examples. Patient heterogeneity is represented by frequency distributions and analyzed with Monte Carlo simulation. Parameter uncertainty is represented by probability distributions and analyzed with 2nd-order Monte Carlo simulation (aka probabilistic sensitivity analysis). Stochastic uncertainty is analyzed with 1st-order Monte Carlo simulation (i.e., trials or random walks). This article can be used as a reference for analyzing complex models with more than one type of uncertainty and patient heterogeneity. PMID:20974904

  10. Multicriteria decision analysis in ranking of analytical procedures for aldrin determination in water.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tobiszewski, Marek; Orłowski, Aleksander

    2015-03-27

    The study presents the possibility of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) application when choosing analytical procedures with low environmental impact. A type of MCDA, Preference Ranking Organization Method for Enrichment Evaluations (PROMETHEE), was chosen as versatile tool that meets all the analytical chemists--decision makers requirements. Twenty five analytical procedures for aldrin determination in water samples (as an example) were selected as input alternatives to MCDA analysis. Nine different criteria describing the alternatives were chosen from different groups--metrological, economical and the most importantly--environmental impact. The weights for each criterion were obtained from questionnaires that were sent to experts, giving three different scenarios for MCDA results. The results of analysis show that PROMETHEE is very promising tool to choose the analytical procedure with respect to its greenness. The rankings for all three scenarios placed solid phase microextraction and liquid phase microextraction--based procedures high, while liquid-liquid extraction, solid phase extraction and stir bar sorptive extraction--based procedures were placed low in the ranking. The results show that although some of the experts do not intentionally choose green analytical chemistry procedures, their MCDA choice is in accordance with green chemistry principles. The PROMETHEE ranking results were compared with more widely accepted green analytical chemistry tools--NEMI and Eco-Scale. As PROMETHEE involved more different factors than NEMI, the assessment results were only weakly correlated. Oppositely, the results of Eco-Scale assessment were well-correlated as both methodologies involved similar criteria of assessment. PMID:25704773

  11. Head First Data Analysis A learner's guide to big numbers, statistics, and good decisions

    CERN Document Server

    Milton, Michael

    2009-01-01

    Today, interpreting data is a critical decision-making factor for businesses and organizations. If your job requires you to manage and analyze all kinds of data, turn to Head First Data Analysis, where you'll quickly learn how to collect and organize data, sort the distractions from the truth, find meaningful patterns, draw conclusions, predict the future, and present your findings to others. Whether you're a product developer researching the market viability of a new product or service, a marketing manager gauging or predicting the effectiveness of a campaign, a salesperson who needs data t

  12. A critical meta-analysis of lens model studies in human judgment and decision-making.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Esther Kaufmann

    Full Text Available Achieving accurate judgment ('judgmental achievement' is of utmost importance in daily life across multiple domains. The lens model and the lens model equation provide useful frameworks for modeling components of judgmental achievement and for creating tools to help decision makers (e.g., physicians, teachers reach better judgments (e.g., a correct diagnosis, an accurate estimation of intelligence. Previous meta-analyses of judgment and decision-making studies have attempted to evaluate overall judgmental achievement and have provided the basis for evaluating the success of bootstrapping (i.e., replacing judges by linear models that guide decision making. However, previous meta-analyses have failed to appropriately correct for a number of study design artifacts (e.g., measurement error, dichotomization, which may have potentially biased estimations (e.g., of the variability between studies and led to erroneous interpretations (e.g., with regards to moderator variables. In the current study we therefore conduct the first psychometric meta-analysis of judgmental achievement studies that corrects for a number of study design artifacts. We identified 31 lens model studies (N = 1,151, k = 49 that met our inclusion criteria. We evaluated overall judgmental achievement as well as whether judgmental achievement depended on decision domain (e.g., medicine, education and/or the level of expertise (expert vs. novice. We also evaluated whether using corrected estimates affected conclusions with regards to the success of bootstrapping with psychometrically-corrected models. Further, we introduce a new psychometric trim-and-fill method to estimate the effect sizes of potentially missing studies correct psychometric meta-analyses for effects of publication bias. Comparison of the results of the psychometric meta-analysis with the results of a traditional meta-analysis (which only corrected for sampling error indicated that artifact correction leads to

  13. Manager’s decision-making in organizations empirical analysis of bureaucratic vs. learning approach

    OpenAIRE

    Jana Frenová; Daniela Hrehová; Eva Bolfíková

    2010-01-01

    The paper is focused on the study of manager’s decision-making with respect to the basic model of learning organization, presented by P. Senge as a system model of management. On one hand, the empirical research was conducted in connection with key dimensions of organizational learning such as: 1. system thinking, 2. personal mastery, 3. mental models, 4. team learning, 5. building shared vision and 6. dynamics causes. On the other hand, the research was connected with the analysis of the bur...

  14. Transportation Big Data: Unbiased Analysis and Tools to Inform Sustainable Transportation Decisions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2016-06-01

    Today, transportation operation and energy systems data are generated at an unprecedented scale. The U.S. Department of Energy's National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) is the go-to source for expertise in providing data and analysis to inform industry and government transportation decision making. The lab's teams of data experts and engineers are mining and analyzing large sets of complex data -- or 'big data' -- to develop solutions that support the research, development, and deployment of market-ready technologies that reduce fuel consumption and greenhouse gas emissions.

  15. Ranking Efficient and Inefficient Decision Making Units in Data Envelopment Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rita Markovits-Somogyi

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Data envelopment analysis is a non-parametric linear programming method capable of the efficiency evaluation of decision making units (e.g. public transport companies. It is very often used in the transport sector for the efficiency assessment of airports, ports, railways and public transport companies. However, the original DEA method does not differentiate the efficient firms and thus, does not create full ranking. To overcome this problem, several methods have been developed with the aim of enlarging the distinguishing power of DEA. The present article aims to review these methods with a special emphasis on the ones elaborated in the last decade.

  16. Applying Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis to Comparative Benefit-Risk Assessment: Choosing among Statins in Primary Prevention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tervonen, Tommi; Naci, Huseyin; van Valkenhoef, Gert; Ades, Anthony E; Angelis, Aris; Hillege, Hans L; Postmus, Douwe

    2015-10-01

    Decision makers in different health care settings need to weigh the benefits and harms of alternative treatment strategies. Such health care decisions include marketing authorization by regulatory agencies, practice guideline formulation by clinical groups, and treatment selection by prescribers and patients in clinical practice. Multiple criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is a family of formal methods that help make explicit the tradeoffs that decision makers accept between the benefit and risk outcomes of different treatment options. Despite the recent interest in MCDA, certain methodological aspects are poorly understood. This paper presents 7 guidelines for applying MCDA in benefit-risk assessment and illustrates their use in the selection of a statin drug for the primary prevention of cardiovascular disease. We provide guidance on the key methodological issues of how to define the decision problem, how to select a set of nonoverlapping evaluation criteria, how to synthesize and summarize the evidence, how to translate relative measures to absolute ones that permit comparisons between the criteria, how to define suitable scale ranges, how to elicit partial preference information from the decision makers, and how to incorporate uncertainty in the analysis. Our example on statins indicates that fluvastatin is likely to be the most preferred drug by our decision maker and that this result is insensitive to the amount of preference information incorporated in the analysis. PMID:25986470

  17. Laparoscopic hysterectomy with morcellation versus abdominal hysterectomy for presumed fibroids in premenopausal women: a decision analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    SIEDHOFF, Matthew T.; WHEELER, Stephanie B.; RUTSTEIN, Sarah E.; GELLER, Elizabeth J.; DOLL, Kemi M.; WU, Jennifer M.; CLARKE-PEARSON, Daniel L.

    2016-01-01

    Objective To model outcomes in laparoscopic hysterectomy with morcellation compared to abdominal hysterectomy for the presumed fibroid uterus, examining short-and long-term complications, as well as mortality. Study Design A decision tree was constructed to compare outcomes for a hypothetical cohort of 100,000 premenopausal women undergoing hysterectomy for presumed fibroids over a 5-year time horizon. Parameter and quality of life utility estimates were determined from published literature for postoperative complications, leiomyosarcoma incidence, death related to leiomyomsarcoma, and procedure-related death. Results The decision analysis predicted fewer overall deaths with laparoscopic hysterectomy compared to abdominal hysterectomy (98 vs. 103 per 100,000). While there were more deaths from leiomyosarcoma following laparoscopic hysterectomy (86 vs. 71 per 100,000), there were more hysterectomy-related deaths with abdominal hysterectomy (32 vs. 12 per 100,000). The laparoscopic group had lower rates of transfusion (2,400 vs. 4,700 per 100,000), wound infection (1,500 vs 6,300 per 100,000), venous thromboembolism (690 vs. 840 per 100,000) and incisional hernia (710 vs. 8,800 per 100,000), but a higher rate of vaginal cuff dehiscence (640 vs. 290 per 100,000). Laparoscopic hysterectomy resulted in more quality-adjusted life years (499,171 vs. 490,711 over five years). Conclusion The risk of leiomyosarcoma morcellation is balanced by procedure-related complications associated with laparotomy, including death. This analysis provides patients and surgeons with estimates of risk and benefit, upon which patient-centered decisions can be made. PMID:25817518

  18. Costs and effectiveness of measures to reduce SO2-emissions: A decision support analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The damage to forests observed in the central and southern parts of the Federal Republic of Germany has increased very rapidly over the past two years. Most scientists believe that SO2- and NOsub(x)-emissions are the main reasons for this damage. This demands the immediate initiation of countermeasures. Since the benefits of these measures cannot be calculated exactly, political decisions have to be made under conditions that are uncertain. The paper demonstrates how and to what extent a cost-effectiveness analysis is able to support a rational decision process under these circumstances. The investigation area is Baden-Wuerttemberg, a state situated in the southwest of the Federal Republic of Germany. First, a reference scenario is defined which describes the possible development of the electricity supply system. Then measures to reduce SO2-emissions are collected and described. Measures required by law (for instance, installation of flue-gas desulphurization by July 1988), are not considered, since they are part of the reference scenario. A cost-effectiveness ratio - that is the amount of money needed to reduce the emissions by one kilogram of SO2 - is evaluated for every measure considered. Measures with a cost-effectiveness ratio that is lower than or equal to that of measures required by law are recommended. Regional electricity suppliers have agreed to put these measures into effect. Realization of these measures will reduce SO2-emissions in Baden-Wuerttemberg by approximately 25%, or 19,000t SO2 per year, during the period 1984 to 1988. Experience shows that a carefully executed cost-effectiveness analysis can be a valuable input to a decision making process in an uncertain environment by evaluating and ranking the costs and effects of the SO2-reduction measures that are at our disposal. (author)

  19. Decision analysis of countermeasures for the milk pathway after an accidental release of radionuclides

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A facilitated workshop was arranged to plan countermeasures that could reduce the dose arising from the consumption of radionuclide-contaminated milk products. It was assumed that a hypothetical accident in a nuclear facility had led to the release of considerable amounts of radionuclides, which subsequently spread across one of Finland's most important agricultural regions and contaminated the milk produced there. The participants in the workshop, interest groups on food issues, considered all the factors influencing the countermeasure decision, not only radiological or monetary ones but less tangible psychosocial effects as well. The participants preferred the countermeasures provision of uncontaminated fodder and production control to banning and disposal. The analysis showed that these countermeasures could be implemented even if the radionuclide concentrations in foodstuffs were below internationally recommended intervention levels. Banning and withdrawal of milk products from sale was not a favourable option, because of the high costs and disadvantages to producers and the industry, and because the disposal of enormous amounts of milk causes a considerable environmental problem. The study revealed the need to further develop methods to realistically assess the radiological and cost implications of food countermeasures. The feasibility and constraints of actions also need further investigation. The experience gained strongly supports the format of a facilitated workshop to tackle a decision problem that concerns different stakeholders. The participants considered the workshop and the decision analysis very useful in exercises. They also expected a similar approach to be applicable in a real situation, although the suitability was not rated as high as for exercises. It is concluded that a facilitated workshop is a valuable instrument for emergency management and in exercises, when revising emergency plans or in order to identify issues that need to be resolved

  20. From "weight of evidence" to quantitative data integration using multicriteria decision analysis and Bayesian methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linkov, Igor; Massey, Olivia; Keisler, Jeff; Rusyn, Ivan; Hartung, Thomas

    2015-01-01

    "Weighing" available evidence in the process of decision-making is unavoidable, yet it is one step that routinely raises suspicions: what evidence should be used, how much does it weigh, and whose thumb may be tipping the scales? This commentary aims to evaluate the current state and future roles of various types of evidence for hazard assessment as it applies to environmental health. In its recent evaluation of the US Environmental Protection Agency's Integrated Risk Information System assessment process, the National Research Council committee singled out the term "weight of evidence" (WoE) for critique, deeming the process too vague and detractive to the practice of evaluating human health risks of chemicals. Moving the methodology away from qualitative, vague and controversial methods towards generalizable, quantitative and transparent methods for appropriately managing diverse lines of evidence is paramount for both regulatory and public acceptance of the hazard assessments. The choice of terminology notwithstanding, a number of recent Bayesian WoE-based methods, the emergence of multi criteria decision analysis for WoE applications, as well as the general principles behind the foundational concepts of WoE, show promise in how to move forward and regain trust in the data integration step of the assessments. We offer our thoughts on the current state of WoE as a whole and while we acknowledge that many WoE applications have been largely qualitative and subjective in nature, we see this as an opportunity to turn WoE towards a quantitative direction that includes Bayesian and multi criteria decision analysis. PMID:25592482

  1. Nature and extent of lava-flow aquifers beneath Pahute Mesa, Nevada Test Site

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Prothro, L.B.; Drellack, S.L. Jr.

    1997-09-01

    Work is currently underway within the Underground Test Area subproject of the US Department of Energy/Nevada Operations Office Environmental Restoration Program to develop corrective action plans in support of the overall corrective action strategy for the Nevada Test Site as established in the Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order (FFACO, 1996). A closure plan is currently being developed for Pahute Mesa, which has been identified in the FFACO as consisting of the Western and Central Pahute Mesa Corrective Action Units. Part of this effort requires that hydrogeologic data be compiled for inclusion in a regional model that will be used to predict a contaminant boundary for these Corrective Action Units. Hydrogeologic maps have been prepared for use in the model to define the nature and extent of aquifers and confining units that might influence the flow of contaminated groundwater from underground nuclear tests conducted at Pahute Mesa. Much of the groundwater flow beneath Pahute Mesa occurs within lava-flow aquifers. An understanding of the distribution and hydraulic character of these important hydrogeologic units is necessary to accurately model groundwater flow beneath Pahute Mesa. This report summarizes the results of a study by Bechtel Nevada geologists to better define the hydrogeology of lava-flow aquifers at Pahute Mesa. The purpose of this study was twofold: (1) aid in the development of the hydrostratigraphic framework for Pahute Mesa, and (2) provide information on the distribution and hydraulic character of lava-flow aquifers beneath Pahute Mesa for more accurate computer modeling of the Western and Central Pahute Mesa Corrective Action Units.

  2. Ex post power economic analysis of record of decision operational restrictions at Glen Canyon Dam.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Veselka, T. D.; Poch, L. A.; Palmer, C. S.; Loftin, S.; Osiek, B; Decision and Information Sciences; Western Area Power Administration

    2010-07-31

    On October 9, 1996, Bruce Babbitt, then-Secretary of the U.S. Department of the Interior signed the Record of Decision (ROD) on operating criteria for the Glen Canyon Dam (GCD). Criteria selected were based on the Modified Low Fluctuating Flow (MLFF) Alternative as described in the Operation of Glen Canyon Dam, Colorado River Storage Project, Arizona, Final Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) (Reclamation 1995). These restrictions reduced the operating flexibility of the hydroelectric power plant and therefore its economic value. The EIS provided impact information to support the ROD, including an analysis of operating criteria alternatives on power system economics. This ex post study reevaluates ROD power economic impacts and compares these results to the economic analysis performed prior (ex ante) to the ROD for the MLFF Alternative. On the basis of the methodology used in the ex ante analysis, anticipated annual economic impacts of the ROD were estimated to range from approximately $15.1 million to $44.2 million in terms of 1991 dollars ($1991). This ex post analysis incorporates historical events that took place between 1997 and 2005, including the evolution of power markets in the Western Electricity Coordinating Council as reflected in market prices for capacity and energy. Prompted by ROD operational restrictions, this analysis also incorporates a decision made by the Western Area Power Administration to modify commitments that it made to its customers. Simulated operations of GCD were based on the premise that hourly production patterns would maximize the economic value of the hydropower resource. On the basis of this assumption, it was estimated that economic impacts were on average $26.3 million in $1991, or $39 million in $2009.

  3. MARKETING MIX ANALYSIS OF NATURAL TOURISM AREA 'KAWAH PUTIH’ AND ITS EFFECT ON VISITORS’ DECISION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Isyana Rahayu

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Kawah Putih is one of the leading tourist places in Bandung which has significantly contributed to the revenue of travel business division in the Forestry Housing as the manager. The revenue obtained depends on the marketing mix strategy conducted by the management because the marketing mix is the elements which become a consideration basis when making marketing communication strategy services in order to understand the demands of tourists. Therefore, the objectives of this study were to obtain and understand information and analyze the visitors’ responses on the natural tourism area related to the marketing mix that has been implemented by the management. The dependent variables included the elements of marketing mix, that involves 7P – product, price, place, promotion, people, procees and physical evidence, while the independent variable included the visitors’ decision. From the validity and tests, it is revealed that the overall regression model bring effects or at least there is one variable of the marketing mix factors that influences the decision of the visitors. From the data analysis, it is found that the process variables and physical appearance do not significantly affect the decision of the visitors. The other variables. that involve variables of product, price, place, promotion, and human have significantly influence the visitors’ decision.Keywords: Marketing mix, Kawah Putih, decision of visitors, touristsABSTRAKKawah Putih merupakan salah satu wisata unggulan Kota Bandung dan telah berkontribusi cukup signifikan untuk pendapatan divisi bisnis wisata Perum Perhutani. Pendapatan yang diperoleh tergantung dari strategi bauran pemasaran yang dilakukan oleh pengelola karena pada bauran pemasaran terdapat unsur atau elemen yang menjadi dasar pertimbangan pembuatan strategi komunikasi pemasaran jasa dalam rangka untuk memahami tuntutan dari wisatawan. Tujuan penelitian ini adalah memperoleh informasi, memahami dan menganalisis

  4. BiodieselFAO: An Integrated Decision Support System for Investment Analysis in the Biodiesel Production Chain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aziz Galvão da Silva Júnior

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available In the short and medium terms, biofuels are the most viable alternative to reduce the environmental impact of fossil fuels. The recent controversy over the competition between biofuels and food production increases the complexity of investment decisions in the biodiesel production chain. In this context, decision support tools are highly relevant. The purpose of this article is to describe the BiodieselFAO using the Unified Modeling Language (UML. An integrated analysis considering both agricultural and industrial sectors was identified as a key requirement to the system. Therefore, farmers and industry are the main actors in the use case diagram. As the raw material represents around 70% of the industrial cost of biodiesel production, the price negotiation of raw material (oilseeds is the central use case. Configuration, agriculture, industry, results and scenarios are the modules, which encompass the functionalities derived from the UML diagrams. The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO has made the BiodieselFAO available, free of charge, to around 180 professionals from 17 Latin American countries. Additionally, the developing team has supported the usage of the BiodieselFAO in several biodiesel investment analyses throughout Latin America. The system was also useful in the design and analysis of policy related to biodiesel industry in Brazil.

  5. Application of Effective Discharge Analysis to Environmental Flow Decision-Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKay, S Kyle; Freeman, Mary C; Covich, Alan P

    2016-06-01

    Well-informed river management decisions rely on an explicit statement of objectives, repeatable analyses, and a transparent system for assessing trade-offs. These components may then be applied to compare alternative operational regimes for water resource infrastructure (e.g., diversions, locks, and dams). Intra- and inter-annual hydrologic variability further complicates these already complex environmental flow decisions. Effective discharge analysis (developed in studies of geomorphology) is a powerful tool for integrating temporal variability of flow magnitude and associated ecological consequences. Here, we adapt the effectiveness framework to include multiple elements of the natural flow regime (i.e., timing, duration, and rate-of-change) as well as two flow variables. We demonstrate this analytical approach using a case study of environmental flow management based on long-term (60 years) daily discharge records in the Middle Oconee River near Athens, GA, USA. Specifically, we apply an existing model for estimating young-of-year fish recruitment based on flow-dependent metrics to an effective discharge analysis that incorporates hydrologic variability and multiple focal taxa. We then compare three alternative methods of environmental flow provision. Percentage-based withdrawal schemes outcompete other environmental flow methods across all levels of water withdrawal and ecological outcomes. PMID:26961419

  6. Importance analysis based on logical differential calculus and Binary Decision Diagram

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    System availability evaluation, sensitivity analysis, Importance Measures, and optimal design are important issues that have become research topics for reliability engineering. There are different mathematical approaches to the development of these topics. The structure function based approach is one of them. Structure function enables one to analyse a system of any complexity. But computational complexity of structure function based methods is time consuming for large-scale networks. We propose to use two mathematical approaches for decision to this problem for system importance analysis. The first of them is Direct Partial Boolean Derivative. New equations for calculating the Importance Measures are developed in terms of these derivatives. The second is Binary Decision Diagram (BDD), that supports efficient manipulation of Boolean algebra. Two algorithms for calculating Direct Partial Boolean Derivative based on BDD of structure function are proposed in this paper. The experimental results show the efficiency of new algorithms for calculating Direct Partial Boolean Derivative and Importance Measures. - Highlights: • New approach for calculation of Importance Measures is proposed. • Direct Partial Boolean Derivatives are used for calculation of Importance Measures. • New equations for Importance Measures are obtained. • New algorithm to calculate Direct Partial Boolean Derivatives by BDD is developed

  7. Application of Effective Discharge Analysis to Environmental Flow Decision-Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKay, S. Kyle; Freeman, Mary C.; Covich, Alan P.

    2016-06-01

    Well-informed river management decisions rely on an explicit statement of objectives, repeatable analyses, and a transparent system for assessing trade-offs. These components may then be applied to compare alternative operational regimes for water resource infrastructure (e.g., diversions, locks, and dams). Intra- and inter-annual hydrologic variability further complicates these already complex environmental flow decisions. Effective discharge analysis (developed in studies of geomorphology) is a powerful tool for integrating temporal variability of flow magnitude and associated ecological consequences. Here, we adapt the effectiveness framework to include multiple elements of the natural flow regime (i.e., timing, duration, and rate-of-change) as well as two flow variables. We demonstrate this analytical approach using a case study of environmental flow management based on long-term (60 years) daily discharge records in the Middle Oconee River near Athens, GA, USA. Specifically, we apply an existing model for estimating young-of-year fish recruitment based on flow-dependent metrics to an effective discharge analysis that incorporates hydrologic variability and multiple focal taxa. We then compare three alternative methods of environmental flow provision. Percentage-based withdrawal schemes outcompete other environmental flow methods across all levels of water withdrawal and ecological outcomes.

  8. Formation of a Mesa Shaped Phonon Pulse in Superfluid 4He

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adamenko, I. N.; Nemchenko, K. E.; Slipko, V. A.

    2010-05-01

    We present a theory for the formation of a mesa shaped phonon pulse in superfluid 4He. Starting from the hydrodynamic equations of superfluid helium, we obtain the system of equations which describe the evolution of strongly anisotropic phonon systems. Such systems can be created experimentally. The solution of the equations are simple waves, which correspond to second sound in the moving phonon pulse. Using these exact solutions, we describe the expansion of phonon pulses in superfluid helium at zero temperature. This theory gives an explanation for the mesa shape observed in the measured phonon angular distributions. Almost all dependencies of the mesa shape on the system parameters can be qualitatively understood.

  9. MESAFace, a graphical interface to analyze the MESA output

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giannotti, M.; Wise, M.; Mohammed, A.

    2013-04-01

    MESA (Modules for Experiments in Stellar Astrophysics) has become very popular among astrophysicists as a powerful and reliable code to simulate stellar evolution. Analyzing the output data thoroughly may, however, present some challenges and be rather time-consuming. Here we describe MESAFace, a graphical and dynamical interface which provides an intuitive, efficient and quick way to analyze the MESA output. Catalogue identifier: AEOQ_v1_0 Program summary URL:http://cpc.cs.qub.ac.uk/summaries/AEOQ_v1_0.html Program obtainable from: CPC Program Library, Queen’s University, Belfast, N. Ireland Licensing provisions: Standard CPC licence, http://cpc.cs.qub.ac.uk/licence/licence.html No. of lines in distributed program, including test data, etc.: 19165 No. of bytes in distributed program, including test data, etc.: 6300592 Distribution format: tar.gz Programming language: Mathematica. Computer: Any computer capable of running Mathematica. Operating system: Any capable of running Mathematica. Tested on Linux, Mac, Windows XP, Windows 7. RAM: Recommended 2 Gigabytes or more. Supplementary material: Additional test data files are available. Classification: 1.7, 14. Nature of problem: Find a way to quickly and thoroughly analyze the output of a MESA run, including all the profiles, and have an efficient method to produce graphical representations of the data. Solution method: We created two scripts (to be run consecutively). The first one downloads all the data from a MESA run and organizes the profiles in order of age. All the files are saved as tables or arrays of tables which can then be accessed very quickly by Mathematica. The second script uses the Manipulate function to create a graphical interface which allows the user to choose what to plot from a set of menus and buttons. The information shown is updated in real time. The user can access very quickly all the data from the run under examination and visualize it with plots and tables. Unusual features: Moving the

  10. Efficiency analysis with interval-scale data based on separating hyperplane of decision making units

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mansour Mohammadpour

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The traditional data envelopment analysis (DEA model can evaluate the relative efficiencies of a set of decision making units (DMUs with ratio scale inputs and outputs, but it cannot handle interval scale data. This study develop an approach to efficiency analysis to deal with both interval-scale data and ratio scale data. This approach introduces a measure of inefficiency and identifies efficient units as is done in DEA models with VRS technology. The basic idea in the approach is to obtain a separating hyperplane of DMUs so that the hyperplane can separate the maximum number of DMUs whose performances are not better than a DMU under evaluation, from the rest of the DMUs. Performance measure is defined as a ratio of not-better units to all units. Also, this paper presents a relationship between the performance measures with those in DEA models with VRS technology.

  11. Analysis of energy-efficiency investment decisions by small and medium-sized manufacturers

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Woodruff, M.G.; Roop, J.M.; Seely, H.E. [Pacific Northwest National Lab., Richland, WA (United States); Muller, M.R. [Rutgers--the State Univ., New Brunswick, NJ (United States); Jones, T.W. [Alliance to Save Energy, Washington, DC (United States); Dowd, J. [USDOE, Washington, DC (United States)

    1996-05-01

    This report highlights the results of a comprehensive analysis of investment decisions regarding energy-efficiency measures at small and medium-sized manufacturing plants. The analysis is based on the experiences of companies participating in the DOE Industrial Assessment Center (IAC) program. The IAC program is a network of university-based centers that provides energy and waste assessments to small and medium-sized manufacturing plants. The purposes of this report are to do the following: (1) Examine what the data collected reveal about patterns of implementation of recommended energy- efficiency measures, (2) Evaluate how various factors, such as the type of industry, the characteristics of the manufacturing plants, or the cost of the measures, appear to effect implementation rates, (3) Examine reasons why recommended energy-saving measures are accepted or rejected.

  12. Application of decision analysis to the optimization of common cause failure defense methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Various methods to defend against common cause failure (CCF) have been proposed in the literature. These methods can be classified into five different categories. Based on these categories, we developed a novel approach to determining an optimal CCF defense strategy. The potential CCF defense strategies are evaluated using a decision analysis method, called analytic hierarchical process (AHP). This approach was applied to two motor-driven valves for containment sump isolation in Ulchin 3 and 4 nuclear power plants of Korea to defend against CCF of the valves. The example CCF defense analysis suggests several potential CCF defense strategies in this case, and prioritizes them in terms of effectiveness based on cost, safety, and operator burden. (author)

  13. Limnology of Blue Mesa, Morrow Point, and Crystal Reservoirs, Curecanti National Recreation area, during 1999, and a 25-year retrospective of nutrient conditions in Blue Mesa Reservoir, Colorado

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bauch, Nancy J.; Malick, Matt

    2003-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey and the National Park Service conducted a water-quality investigation in Curecanti National Recreation Area in Colorado from April through December 1999. Current (as of 1999) limnological characteristics, including nutrients, phytoplankton, chlorophyll-a, trophic status, and the water quality of stream inflows and reservoir outflows, of Blue Mesa, Morrow Point, and Crystal Reservoirs were assessed, and a 25-year retrospective of nutrient conditions in Blue Mesa Reservoir was conducted. The three reservoirs are in a series on the Gunnison River, with an upstream to downstream order of Blue Mesa, Morrow Point, and Crystal Reservoirs. Physical properties and water-quality samples were collected four times during 1999 from reservoir, inflow, and outflow sites in and around the recreation area. Samples were analyzed for nutrients, phytoplankton and chlorophyll-a (reservoir sites only), and suspended sediment (stream inflows only). Nutrient concentrations in the reservoirs were low; median total nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations were less than 0.4 and 0.06 milligram per liter, respectively. During water-column stratification, samples collected at depth had higher nutrient concentrations than photic-zone samples. Phytoplankton community and density were affected by water temperature, nutrients, and water residence time. Diatoms were the dominant phytoplankton throughout the year in Morrow Point and Crystal Reservoirs and during spring and early winter in Blue Mesa Reservoir. Blue-green algae were dominant in Blue Mesa Reservoir during summer and fall. Phytoplankton density was highest in Blue Mesa Reservoir and lowest in Crystal Reservoir. Longer residence times and warmer temperatures in Blue Mesa Reservoir were favorable for phytoplankton growth and development. Shorter residence times and cooler temperatures in the downstream reservoirs probably limited phytoplankton growth and development. Median chlorophyll-a concentrations were higher

  14. Enhanced adaptive management: integrating decision analysis, scenario analysis and environmental modeling for the Everglades.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Convertino, Matteo; Foran, Christy M; Keisler, Jeffrey M; Scarlett, Lynn; LoSchiavo, Andy; Kiker, Gregory A; Linkov, Igor

    2013-01-01

    We propose to enhance existing adaptive management efforts with a decision-analytical approach that can guide the initial selection of robust restoration alternative plans and inform the need to adjust these alternatives in the course of action based on continuously acquired monitoring information and changing stakeholder values. We demonstrate an application of enhanced adaptive management for a wetland restoration case study inspired by the Florida Everglades restoration effort. We find that alternatives designed to reconstruct the pre-drainage flow may have a positive ecological impact, but may also have high operational costs and only marginally contribute to meeting other objectives such as reduction of flooding. Enhanced adaptive management allows managers to guide investment in ecosystem modeling and monitoring efforts through scenario and value of information analyses to support optimal restoration strategies in the face of uncertain and changing information. PMID:24113217

  15. Availability, Sustainability, and Suitability of Ground Water, Rogers Mesa, Delta County, Colorado - Types of Analyses and Data for Use in Subdivision Water-Supply Reports

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watts, Kenneth R.

    2008-01-01

    The population of Delta County, Colorado, like that in much of the Western United States, is forecast to increase substantially in the next few decades. A substantial portion of the increased population likely will reside in rural subdivisions and use residential wells for domestic water supplies. In Colorado, a subdivision developer is required to submit a water-supply plan through the county for approval by the Colorado Division of Water Resources. If the water supply is to be provided by wells, the water-supply plan must include a water-supply report. The water-supply report demonstrates the availability, sustainability, and suitability of the water supply for the proposed subdivision. During 2006, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with Delta County, Colorado, began a study to develop criteria that the Delta County Land Use Department can use to evaluate water-supply reports for proposed subdivisions. A table was prepared that lists the types of analyses and data that may be needed in a water-supply report for a water-supply plan that proposes the use of ground water. A preliminary analysis of the availability, sustainability, and suitability of the ground-water resources of Rogers Mesa, Delta County, Colorado, was prepared for a hypothetical subdivision to demonstrate hydrologic analyses and data that may be needed for water-supply reports for proposed subdivisions. Rogers Mesa is a 12-square-mile upland mesa located along the north side of the North Fork Gunnison River about 15 miles east of Delta, Colorado. The principal land use on Rogers Mesa is irrigated agriculture, with about 5,651 acres of irrigated cropland, grass pasture, and orchards. The principal source of irrigation water is surface water diverted from the North Fork Gunnison River and Leroux Creek. The estimated area of platted subdivisions on or partially on Rogers Mesa in 2007 was about 4,792 acres of which about 2,756 acres was irrigated land in 2000. The principal aquifer on Rogers

  16. Interference of partial visual analysis of root filling quality and apical status on retreatment decisions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Renata Dornelles Morgental

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: The presence of periapical radiolucency has been used as a criterion for endodontic treatment failure. However, in addition to the inherent limitations of radiographic examinations, radiographic interpretations are extremely subjective. Thus, this study investigated the effect of partial analysis of root filling quality and periapical status on retreatment decisions by general dentists. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Twelve digitalized periapical radiographs were analyzed by 10 observers. The study was conducted at three time points at 1-week intervals. Radiographs edited with the Adobe Photoshop CS4 software were analyzed at three time points: first, only root filling quality was analyzed; second, only the periapical areas of the teeth under study were visualized; finally, observers analyzed the unedited radiographic image. Spearman ’s coefficient was used to analyze the correlations between the scores assigned when the periapical area was not visible and when the unedited radiograph was analyzed, as well as between the scores assigned when root fillings where not visible and when the unedited radiograph was analyzed. Sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values between partial images and unedited radiographs were also used to analyze retreatment decisions. The level of significance was set at 5%. RESULTS: The visualization of the root filling on the unedited radiograph affected the interpretation of the periapical status and the technical quality of the fillings has a greater influence on the general dentist’s decision to prescribe endodontic retreatment than the periapical condition. CONCLUSION: In order to make endodontic diagnosis, radiographic interpretation process should not only emphasize technical aspects, but also consider biological factors.

  17. Tensions between policy and practice: A qualitative analysis of decisions regarding compulsory admission to psychiatric hospital.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fistein, Elizabeth C; Clare, Isabel C H; Redley, Marcus; Holland, Anthony J

    2016-01-01

    The use of detention for psychiatric treatment is widespread and sometimes necessary. International human rights law requires a legal framework to safeguard the rights to liberty and personal integrity by preventing arbitrary detention. However, research suggests that extra-legal factors may influence decisions to detain. This article presents observational and interview data to describe how decisions to detain are made in practice in one jurisdiction (England and Wales) where a tension between policy and practice has been described. The analysis shows that practitioners mould the law into 'practical criteria' that appear to form a set of operational criteria for identifying cases to which the principle of soft paternalism may be applied. Most practitioners also appear willing, albeit often reluctantly, to depart from their usual reliance on the principle of soft paternalism and authorise detention of people with the capacity to refuse treatment, in order to prevent serious harm. We propose a potential resolution for the tension between policy and practice: two separate legal frameworks to authorise detention, one with a suitable test of capacity, used to enact soft paternalism, and the other to provide legal justification for detention for psychiatric treatment of the small number of people who retain decision-making capacity but nonetheless choose to place others at risk by refusing treatment. This separation of detention powers into two systems, according to the principle that justifies the use of detention would be intellectually coherent, consistent with human rights instruments and, being consistent with the apparent moral sentiments of practitioners, less prone to idiosyncratic interpretations in practice. PMID:27062108

  18. Supporting ALARP decision-making by cost benefit analysis and multi-attribute utility theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Current regulation in the UK and elsewhere specify upper and target risk limits for the operation of nuclear plant in terms of frequencies of various kinds of accidents and accidental releases per annum. 'As low as reasonably practicable' (ALARP) arguments are used to justify the acceptance or rejection of policies that lead to risk changes between these limits. We assess the suitability of cost-benefit analysis (CBA) and multi-attribute utility theory (MAUT) for performing ALARP ('as low as reasonably possible') assessments, in particular within the nuclear industry. Four problems stand out in current CBA applications to ALARP, concerning the determination of prices of safety gains or detriments, the valuation of group and individual risk, calculations using 'disproportionality', and the use of discounting to trade off risks through time. This last point has received less attention in the past but is important because of the growing interest in risk-informed regulation in which policies extend over several timeframes and distribute the risk unevenly over these, or in policies that lead to a non-uniform risk within a single timeframe (such as maintenance policies). We discuss the problems associated with giving quantitative support to such decisions. We argue that multi-attribute utility methods (MAUT) provide an alternative methodology to CBA which enable the four problems described above to be addressed in a more satisfactory way. Through sensitivity analysis MAUT can address the perceptions of all stakeholder groups, facilitating constructive discussion and elucidating the key points of disagreement. We also argue that by being explicitly subjective it provides an open, auditable and clear analysis in contrast to the illusory objectivity of CBA. CBA seeks to justify a decision by using a common basis for weights (prices), while MAUT recognizes that different parties may want to give different valuations. It then allows the analyst to explore the ways in which

  19. Motivational factors influencing the homeowners’ decisions between residential heating systems: An empirical analysis for Germany

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heating demand accounts for a large fraction of the overall energy demand of private households in Germany. A better understanding of the adoption and diffusion of energy-efficient and renewables-based residential heating systems (RHS) is of high policy relevance, particularly against the background of climate change, security of energy supply and increasing energy prices. In this paper, we explore the multi-dimensionality of the homeowners’ motivation to decide between competing RHS. A questionnaire survey (N=2440) conducted in 2010 among homeowners who had recently installed a RHS provides the empirical foundation. Principal component analysis shows that 25 items capturing different adoption motivations can be grouped around six dimensions: (1) cost aspects, (2) general attitude towards the RHS, (3) government grant, (4) reactions to external threats (i.e., environmental or energy supply security considerations), (5) comfort considerations, and (6) influence of peers. Moreover, a cluster analysis with the identified motivational factors as segmentation variables reveals three adopter types: (1) the convenience-oriented, (2) the consequences-aware, and (3) the multilaterally-motivated RHS adopter. Finally, we show that the influence of the motivational factors on the adoption decision also differs by certain characteristics of the homeowner and features of the home. - Highlights: ► Study of the multi-dimensionality of the motivation to adopt residential heating systems (RHS). ► Principal component and cluster analysis are applied to representative survey data for Germany. ► Motivation has six dimensions, including rational decision-making and emotional factors. ► Adoption motivation differs by certain characteristics of the homeowner and of the home. ► Many adopters are driven by existing habits and perceptions about the convenience of the RHS

  20. Manager’s decision-making in organizations –empirical analysis of bureaucratic vs. learning approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jana Frenová

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available The paper is focused on the study of manager’s decision-making with respect to the basic model of learning organization, presented by P. Senge as a system model of management. On one hand, the empirical research was conducted in connection with key dimensions of organizational learning such as: 1. system thinking, 2. personal mastery, 3. mental models, 4. team learning, 5. building shared vision and 6. dynamics causes. On the other hand, the research was connected with the analysis of the bureaucratic logic of decision-making process, characterized by non-functional stability, inflexibility, individualism, power, authority and hierarchy, centralization, vagueness, fragmentariness. The objective of the research was to analyse to what extent manager’s decision–making is based on bureaucratic tools or organizational learning in either complex problem-solving or non-problemsolving decision-making. (MANOVA, method of the repeated measure, intersubject factor – situation: 1. non problematic, 2. problematic. The conclusion of analysis is that there are significant differences in character of solving of problem situation and non-problem situation decision-making: the bureaucratic attributes of decision-making are more intensive in problematic situations while learning approach is more actual in non-problematic situations. The results of our analysis have shown that managers who apply the learning organization attributes in their decision-making. are more successful in problem-solving.

  1. How accurate are interpretations of curriculum-based measurement progress monitoring data? Visual analysis versus decision rules.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Norman, Ethan R; Christ, Theodore J

    2016-10-01

    Curriculum based measurement of oral reading (CBM-R) is used to monitor the effects of academic interventions for individual students. Decisions to continue, modify, or terminate these interventions are made by interpreting time series CBM-R data. Such interpretation is founded upon visual analysis or the application of decision rules. The purpose of this study was to compare the accuracy of visual analysis and decision rules. Visual analysts interpreted 108 CBM-R progress monitoring graphs one of three ways: (a) without graphic aids, (b) with a goal line, or (c) with a goal line and a trend line. Graphs differed along three dimensions, including trend magnitude, variability of observations, and duration of data collection. Automated trend line and data point decision rules were also applied to each graph. Inferential analyses permitted the estimation of the probability of a correct decision (i.e., the student is improving - continue the intervention, or the student is not improving - discontinue the intervention) for each evaluation method as a function of trend magnitude, variability of observations, and duration of data collection. All evaluation methods performed better when students made adequate progress. Visual analysis and decision rules performed similarly when observations were less variable. Results suggest that educators should collect data for more than six weeks, take steps to control measurement error, and visually analyze graphs when data are variable. Implications for practice and research are discussed. PMID:27586069

  2. Analysis for making a regulatory decision to equipment of industrial gammagraphy in Argentin

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Industrial gammagraphy is a practice widely used as a nondestructive testing technique in Argentina. Experience worldwide has shown the need for an improvement in the intrinsic safety of the equipment used in this lab. In response to this reason, the board of the Nuclear Regulatory Authority (ARN) has considered a proposal to withdraw service movement and much of the equipment inventory scan belonging to industrial facilities nationwide. The main objective of this paper is to present the results of the analysis performed to support the above proposal. The main elements of evaluation can be summarized as follows: I) the teams that do not conform to international recommendations regarding compliance with key safety requirements of international standards such as ISO 3999:2004 (E) Radiation protection - Industrial Apparatus for gamma radiography - Specifications for performance, design and tests ; II) the decision by some manufacturers to discontinue production of certain models of equipment and the provision of spare parts, and III) the validity of certificates bulk type B (U) for transport. In conclusion, it highlights the importance of a regulatory decision supplementary to the Standard AR 7.9.1 concerning the operation of scan equipment industry, based on current international recommendations and Argentina's commitment to good practice and safety culture which can lead to a positive impact on radiation safety in this art

  3. Use of multi-criteria decision analysis in public bidding processes: a case study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    André Andrade Longaray

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Institutions of Higher Education in Brazil (IFES play an important role in the country’s social and scientific development. Focused mainly on teaching, research and extension activities, the IFES are backed by support foundations aimed to the management of financial, human and material resources. Characterized as public bodies, the support foundations are governed by Law no 8.666/93 in what concerns the procurement of goods and services. Therefore, the present study is aimed to develop a model to assist the managers of such foundations in the selection of suppliers to participate in bidding processes that use invitation for bids. Therefore, we conducted a case study in one of the 55 foundations that support Brazilian federal universities. The intervention tool used was the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP. Firstly, we established the hierarchy of criteria for problem-solving. Then, a paired comparison was made between criteria for the same level. Subsequently, the consistency analysis of comparison matrices was verified. Finally, the relative priorities of each criterion were obtained and the objective function of the model was constructed. The model was tested through the assessment of the performance of three potential suppliers of IT equipment, and the result was legitimized by decision makers who found the instrument a valid tool to aid in making decisions on supplier selection for the foundation.

  4. Decision Process Analysis on Project Priority Strategy: A Case Study of an ICT Design Firm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vincent F. Yu

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Project priority strategy is the benchmarking of a corporate operation management strategy and in particular is used by a projects-based research and development firm in the complex competence environment of the information and communication technology (ICT industry. This research takes the variables of external environments and internal resources into account for a firm’s market, technology, and finance assets in order to present a decision process on a project priority strategy. This empirical study also addresses the key factors of the interaction between business on a project development’s supply chain: clients, the examined firm, and suppliers. The findings indicate that a profit-driven project can dominate the firm’s strategic operations and management from the resource-based view and analytic hierarchy process technique perspectives. At the same time, the analysis results contribute significant values to project decision management, which is highly recommended for small-medium enterprises conducting product/project development, project portfolio management, and strategic business management.

  5. Multi-criteria decision analysis of concentrated solar power with thermal energy storage and dry cooling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klein, Sharon J W

    2013-12-17

    Decisions about energy backup and cooling options for parabolic trough (PT) concentrated solar power have technical, economic, and environmental implications. Although PT development has increased rapidly in recent years, energy policies do not address backup or cooling option requirements, and very few studies directly compare the diverse implications of these options. This is the first study to compare the annual capacity factor, levelized cost of energy (LCOE), water consumption, land use, and life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of PT with different backup options (minimal backup (MB), thermal energy storage (TES), and fossil fuel backup (FF)) and different cooling options (wet (WC) and dry (DC). Multicriteria decision analysis was used with five preference scenarios to identify the highest-scoring energy backup-cooling combination for each preference scenario. MB-WC had the highest score in the Economic and Climate Change-Economy scenarios, while FF-DC and FF-WC had the highest scores in the Equal and Availability scenarios, respectively. TES-DC had the highest score for the Environmental scenario. DC was ranked 1-3 in all preference scenarios. Direct comparisons between GHG emissions and LCOE and between GHG emissions and land use suggest a preference for TES if backup is require for PT plants to compete with baseload generators. PMID:24245524

  6. Sustainability assessment of electricity generation technologies using weighted multi-criteria decision analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Solving the issue of environmental degradation due to the expansion of the World's energy demand requires a balanced approach. The aim of this paper is to comprehensively rank a large number of electricity generation technologies based on their compatibility with the sustainable development of the industry. The study is based on a set of 10 sustainability indicators which provide a life cycle analysis of the plants. The technologies are ranked using a weighted sum multi-attribute utility method. The indicator weights were established through a survey of 62 academics from the fields of energy and environmental science. Our results show that large hydroelectric projects are the most sustainable technology type, followed by small hydro, onshore wind and solar photovoltaic. We argue that political leaders should have a more structured and strategic approach in implementing sustainable energy policies and this type of research can provide arguments to support such decisions. - Highlights: • We rank 13 electricity generation technologies based on sustainability. • We use 10 indicators in a weighted sum multi-attribute utility approach. • Weights are calculated based on a survey of 62 academics from the field. • Large hydroelectric projects are ranked as the most sustainable. • Decision makers can use the results to promote a more sustainable energy industry

  7. The Underground Test Area Project of the Nevada Test Site: Building Confidence in Groundwater Flow and Transport Models at Pahute Mesa Through Focused Characterization Studies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pawloski, G A; Wurtz, J; Drellack, S L

    2009-12-29

    Pahute Mesa at the Nevada Test Site contains about 8.0E+07 curies of radioactivity caused by underground nuclear testing. The Underground Test Area Subproject has entered Phase II of data acquisition, analysis, and modeling to determine the risk to receptors from radioactivity in the groundwater, establish a groundwater monitoring network, and provide regulatory closure. Evaluation of radionuclide contamination at Pahute Mesa is particularly difficult due to the complex stratigraphy and structure caused by multiple calderas in the Southwestern Nevada Volcanic Field and overprinting of Basin and Range faulting. Included in overall Phase II goals is the need to reduce the uncertainty and improve confidence in modeling results. New characterization efforts are underway, and results from the first year of a three-year well drilling plan are presented.

  8. The emission mechanism of THz electromagnetic waves from Bi2212 mesa device

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watanabe, Chiharu; Minami, Hidetoshi; Kitamura, Takeo; Kashiwagi, Takanari; Klemm, Richard; Kadowaki, Kazuo

    From the detailed study of the severe temperature inhomogeneity of the Bi2212 IJJ mesa structure often forming ``hot-spot'' at relatively higher bias current region, while the electromagnetic waves are emitted, multi terminal potential measurement of the mesa device has revealed that the equipotential part of the mesa can only give universal ac-Josephson relationship between the potential difference and the frequency measured by the FT-IR spectrometer, and it is violated as the potential is measured in the region where the hot-spot is formed. This means that the deviation of the emission frequency from the ac-Josephson effect comes from a gradient of the electrical potential distribution. This strongly suggests that the electromagnetic waves at THz frequency may be generated in the superconducting part of the mesa, where the static electric potential is uniform, satisfying the ac-Josephson relation universally no matter how much temperature gradient is.

  9. Dislocation Reduction in HgCdTe Mesa Structures Formed on CdTe/Si

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simingalam, Sina; Pattison, James; Chen, Yuanping; Wijewarnasuriya, Priyalal; Rao, Mulpuri V.

    2016-04-01

    Mercury cadmium telluride (MCT) epilayers have been grown on CdTe/Si using molecular beam epitaxy and 8-μm-deep mesa structures formed using plasma etching. Following previous work done on etching mesas and subjecting material to thermal cycle annealing, we set out to determine the limits and underlying physics of dislocation reduction in mesa-etched and annealed MCT. This paper describes the dependence of dislocation reduction on anneal time, cycle annealing, temperature, and etch depth. We show dislocation density reduction below 3 × 105 cm-2 in 10-μm-wide, long-bar mesas along the [0bar{1}1] orientation with only a 5-min anneal at 400°C.

  10. Safety margins of operating reactors. Analysis of uncertainties and implications for decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maintaining safety in the design and operation of nuclear power plants (NPPs) is a very important task under the conditions of a challenging environment, affected by the deregulated electricity market and implementation of risk informed regulations. In Member States, advanced computer codes are widely used as safety analysis tools in the framework of licensing of new NPP projects, safety upgrading programmes of existing NPPs, periodic safety reviews, renewal of operating licences, use of the safety margins for reactor power uprating, better utilization of nuclear fuel and higher operational flexibility, for justification of lifetime extensions, development of new emergency operating procedures, analysis of operational events, and development of accident management programmes. The issue of inadequate quality of safety analysis is becoming important due to a general tendency to use advanced tools for better establishment and utilization of safety margins, while the existence of such margins assure that NPPs operate safely in all modes of operation and at all times. The most important safety margins relate to physical barriers against release of radioactive material, such as fuel matrix and fuel cladding, reactor coolant system boundary, and the containment. Typically, safety margins are determined with use of computational tools for safety analysis. Advanced best estimate computer codes are suggested e.g. in the IAEA Safety Guide on Safety Assessment and Verification for Nuclear Power Plants to be used for current safety analysis. Such computer codes require their careful application to avoid unjustified reduction in robustness of the reactor safety. The issue of uncertainties in safety analyses and their impact on evaluation of safety margins is addressed in a number of IAEA guidance documents, in particular in the Safety Report on Accident Analysis for Nuclear Power Plants. It is also discussed in various technical meetings and workshops devoted to this area. The

  11. Climate change, land slide risks and sustainable development, risk analysis and decision support process tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andersson-sköld, Y. B.; Tremblay, M.

    2011-12-01

    aspects in the decision making process on adaptation measures has been developed and is currently being tested in municipalities including central Gothenburg, and smaller municipalities in Sweden and Norway. The tool is a matrix based decision support tool (MDST) aiming for encoring discussion among experts and stakeholders. The first steps in the decision process include identification, inventory and assessment of the potential impacts of climate change such as landslides (or other events or actions). These steps are also included in general technical/physical risk and vulnerability analyses such as the risk analysis of the Göta älv valley. The MDST also includes further subsequent steps of the risk management process, and the full sequence of the MDST includes risk identification, risk specification, risk assessment, identification of measures, impact analysis of measures including an assessment of environmental, social and economical costs and benefits, a weight process and visualisation of the result. Here the MDST with some examples from the methodology for the Göta river valley analysis and the risk mitigation analysis from Sweden and Norway will be presented.

  12. Brain networks of perceptual decision-making: an fMRI ALE meta-analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Max C Keuken; Müller-Axt, Christa; Langner, Robert; Eickhoff, Simon B.; Birte U. Forstmann; Neumann, Jane

    2014-01-01

    In the recent perceptual decision-making literature, a fronto-parietal network is typically reported to primarily represent the neural substrate of human perceptual decision-making. However, the view that only cortical areas are involved in perceptual decision-making has been challenged by several neurocomputational models which all argue that the basal ganglia play an essential role in perceptual decisions. To consolidate these different views, we conducted an Activation Likelihood Estimatio...

  13. Endothelial dysfunction is associated with left ventricular mass (assessed using MRI) in an adult population (MESA)

    OpenAIRE

    Yeboah, J; Crouse, JR; Bluemke, DA; Lima, JAC; Polak, JF; Burke, GL; Herrington, DM

    2010-01-01

    Brachial flow-mediated dilation (FMD) is a measure of endothelial nitric oxide bioavailability. Endothelial nitric oxide controls vascular tone and is likely to modify the ventricular muscle coupling mechanism. The association between left ventricular mass and FMD is not well understood. We assessed the association between left ventricular mass index (LVMI) and FMD in participants of the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA). MESA is a population-based study of 6814 adults free of clin...

  14. Cost-Benefit Analysis for Investment Decisions: Chapter 7 (Principles Underlying The Economic Analysis of Projects)

    OpenAIRE

    Glenn Jenkins; Chun-Yan Kuo; Arnold C. Harberger

    2011-01-01

    While the financial analysis of a project focuses on matters of interest to investors, bankers, public sector budgets, etc., an economic analysis deals with the impact of the project on the entire society. The primary difference between the economic and financial evaluation is that the former aggregates benefits and costs over all the country's residents to determine whether the project improves the level of economic welfare of the country as a whole while the latter conside'rs the project fr...

  15. Strategic Decision-Making by Deans in Academic Health Centers: A Framework Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keeney, Brianne

    2012-01-01

    This study examines strategic decision-making at the college level in relation to seven theoretical frames. Strategic decisions are those made by top executives, have wide-ranging influence throughout the organization, affect the long-term future of the organization, and are connected to the external environment. The seven decision-making frames…

  16. Strategic Planning and Decision Analysis: Presentation of the COSIMA Software System

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    This paper presents a composite decision support system, COSIMA, programmed in MS Excel. COSIMA provides assistance to the decision maker as concerns complex decisions and strategic planning. The COSIMA software is designed as interconnected modules which make it possible to conduct Cost...

  17. Independent component analysis and decision trees for ECG holter recording de-noising.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jakub Kuzilek

    Full Text Available We have developed a method focusing on ECG signal de-noising using Independent component analysis (ICA. This approach combines JADE source separation and binary decision tree for identification and subsequent ECG noise removal. In order to to test the efficiency of this method comparison to standard filtering a wavelet- based de-noising method was used. Freely data available at Physionet medical data storage were evaluated. Evaluation criteria was root mean square error (RMSE between original ECG and filtered data contaminated with artificial noise. Proposed algorithm achieved comparable result in terms of standard noises (power line interference, base line wander, EMG, but noticeably significantly better results were achieved when uncommon noise (electrode cable movement artefact were compared.

  18. Early Building Design - Informed decision-making by exploring multidimensional design space using sensitivity analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Østergård, Torben; Jensen, Rasmus Lund; Maagaard, Steffen

    2016-01-01

    This paper describes a novel approach to explore a multidimensional design space and guide multi-actor decision making in the design of sustainable buildings. The aim is to provide proactive and holistic guidance of the design team. We propose to perform exhaustive Monte Carlo simulations......, a representation of the global design space is obtained from thousands of simulations using low-discrepancy sequences (LPτ) for sampling. From these simulations, the modeler constructs fast metamodels and performs quantitative sensitivity analysis. During the meeting, the design team explores the global design...... space by filtering the thousands of simulations. Variable filter criteria are easily applied using an interactive parallel coordinate plot which provide immediate feedback on requirements and design choices. Sensitivity measures and metamodels show the combined effects of changing a single input and how...

  19. Advances in intelligent analysis of medical data and decision support systems

    CERN Document Server

    Iantovics, Barna

    2013-01-01

    This volume is a result of the fruitful and vivid discussions during the MedDecSup'2012 International Workshop bringing together a relevant body of knowledge, and new developments in the increasingly important field of medical informatics. This carefully edited book presents new ideas aimed at the development of intelligent processing of various kinds of medical information and the perfection of the contemporary computer systems for medical decision support. The book presents advances of the medical information systems for intelligent archiving, processing, analysis and search-by-content which will improve the quality of the medical services for every patient and of the global healthcare system. The book combines in a synergistic way theoretical developments with the practicability of the approaches developed and presents the last developments and achievements in  medical informatics to a broad range of readers: engineers, mathematicians, physicians, and PhD students.

  20. Flood Susceptibility Modeling: A Geo-spatial Technology Multi-criteria Decision Analysis Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dano Umar Lawal

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Understanding the surface and subsurface condition can immensely enhance the availability of accurate flood susceptibility maps for effective management of flood catastrophe. In this study, remote sensing and Geographic Information System-based (GIS-based Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA based on experts’ opinions has been adopted to carry out the preparedness phase of flood management. Establishing a link between the surface/subsurface conditions and flood occurrence is the major objective of this study. The surface/subsurface investigations showed that the lowland areas of the study area are characterized by the presence of flat slope, alluvium deposits and low humid clay soil composition. The GIS-based Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP model was adopted in simulating the flood susceptible zones map of the study area. Finally, the result revealed that flood generation in the area immensely relied on slope, geology and soil type along with rainfall as the key catalyst.

  1. The Evidential Reasoning Approach for Multiple Decision Analysis Using Normal Cloud Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Li-Min Zhang

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, normal cloud model and evidential reasoning (E-R approach is used in multiple attribute decision analysis (MADA problems. Different attributes Belief function are represented by cloud model interval. Using cloud model generating algorithm, belief degree interval is obtained without numerical computation. In addition, it is reasonable and it accords with humans mind. Evidential reasoning algorithm is also used to incorporate different attributes interval in different ranks. Maximum and minimum in belief degree interval is computed by software. Then aggregative index number of attribute value is computed. Things rank is decided by the index number. In the example, trucks integrated performances are analysed. Simulation results further illustrate the effectiveness of the design method.

  2. Material degradation analysis and maintenance decisions based on material condition monitoring during in-service inspections

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The degradation of the material in critical components is shown to be an effective measure which can be used to compute the risk adjusted economic penalty associated with different maintenance decisions. The approach of estimating the probability, with confidence interval, of the time that a prescribed degradation level is exceeded is shown to be practical, as demonstrated in the analysis of irradiated fuel cladding. The methodology for the estimation of the probability is predicated on the existence of a parsimonious and robust mixed-effects model of the evolution of the degradation. This model, in general, relates measured surrogates of the degradation level to computed or measured variables, which characterize the environment during the operating history of the component. We propose and demonstrate the efficacy of using an artificial neural network, constructed via a genetic supervisor, as an aid in developing the requisite mixed-effects model and testing its continued validity as new data are obtained

  3. Dynamic Resource Allocation in Computing Clouds through Distributed Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis using PROMETHEE Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chandra Mouli Venkata Srinivas Akana

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available In computing clouds, it is desirable to avoid wasting resources as a result of under-utilization and to avoid lengthy response times as a result of over-utilization. In this technical report, we investigate a new approach for dynamic autonomous resource management in computing clouds. The main contribution of this work is two-fold. First, we adopt a distributed architecture where resource management has decomposed into independent tasks, each of which is performed by Autonomous Node Agents that are tightly coupled with the physical machines in a data center. Second, the Autonomous Node Agents carry out configurations in parallel through Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis using the PROMETHEE method. Simulation results show that the proposed approach is promising in terms of scalability, feasibility and flexibility.

  4. Multicriteria Decision Analysis of Material Selection of High Energy Performance Residential Building

    Science.gov (United States)

    Čuláková, Monika; Vilčeková, Silvia; Katunská, Jana; Krídlová Burdová, Eva

    2013-11-01

    In world with limited amount of energy sources and with serious environmental pollution, interest in comparing the environmental embodied impacts of buildings using different structure systems and alternative building materials will be increased. This paper shows the significance of life cycle energy and carbon perspective and the material selection in reducing energy consumption and emissions production in the built environment. The study evaluates embodied environmental impacts of nearly zero energy residential structures. The environmental assessment uses framework of LCA within boundary: cradle to gate. Designed alternative scenarios of material compositions are also assessed in terms of energy effectiveness through selected thermal-physical parameters. This study uses multi-criteria decision analysis for making clearer selection between alternative scenarios. The results of MCDA show that alternative E from materials on nature plant base (wood, straw bales, massive wood panel) present possible way to sustainable perspective of nearly zero energy houses in Slovak republic

  5. An application of the value tree analysis methodology within the integrated risk informed decision making for the nuclear facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A new framework of integrated risk informed decision making (IRIDM) has been recently developed in order to improve the risk management of the nuclear facilities. IRIDM is a process in which qualitatively different inputs, corresponding to different types of risk, are jointly taken into account. However, the relative importance of the IRIDM inputs and their influence on the decision to be made is difficult to be determined quantitatively. An improvement of this situation can be achieved by application of the Value Tree Analysis (VTA) methods. The aim of this article is to present the VTA methodology in the context of its potential usage in the decision making on nuclear facilities. The benefits of the VTA application within the IRIDM process were identified while making the decision on fuel conversion of the research reactor MARIA. - Highlights: • New approach to risk informed decision making on nuclear facilities was postulated. • Value tree diagram was developed for decision processes on nuclear installations. • An experiment was performed to compare the new approach with the standard one. • Benefits of the new approach were reached in fuel conversion of a research reactor. • The new approach makes the decision making process more transparent and auditable

  6. Conditional uncertainty analysis and implications for decision making: The case of WIPP

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Uncertainty analyses and the reporting of their results can be misinterpreted when these analyses are conditional on a set of assumptions generally intended to bring some conservatism in the decisions. In this paper, two cases of conditional uncertainty analysis are examined. The first case includes studies that result, for instance, in a family of risk curves representing percentiles of the probability distribution of the future frequency of exceeding specified consequence levels conditional on a set of hypotheses. The second case involves analyses that result in an interval of outcomes estimated on the basis of conservative assumptions. both types of results are difficult to use because they are sometimes misinterpreted as if they represented the output of a full uncertainty analysis. In the first case, the percentiles shown on each risk curve may be taken at face value when in reality they are lower if the chosen hypotheses are conservative. In the second case, the face that some segments of the resulting interval are highly unlikely--or that some more benign segments outside the range of results are quite possible--does not appear. Also, these results are difficult to compare to those of analyses of other risks, possibly competing for the same risk management resources, and the decision criteria have to be adapted to the conservatism of the hypotheses. In this paper, the focus is on the first type more than on the second and the discussion is illustrated by the case of the performance assessment of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant in New Mexico. For policy-making purposes, however, the problems of interpretation, comparison, and use of the results are similar

  7. A decision analysis of flow management experiments for Columbia River mountain whitefish (Prosopium williamsoni) management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The effects of regulated rivers on downstream fish populations were discussed with reference to the direct effects of flows and temperatures on fish migration and physiology to indirect effects of hydraulic conditions on habitat, substrate, and food supplies. While the qualitative effects of flows on fish populations may be identifiable, quantitative definition of the relationship between releases from dams and fish responses can be uncertain. A quantitative framework for evaluating flow actions was presented along with some basic guidelines on when it may be appropriate to conduct flow experiments. The benefits of alternative flow experiments while accounting for uncertainties in this relationship and in flows in the Columbia and Kootenay rivers were assessed in the form of a decision analysis. The Hugh Keenleyside Dam (HKD) is a hydroelectric storage facility operated by BC Hydro on the Columbia River in British Columbia. Downstream from the HKD, mountain whitefish spawn at several sites during the first 3 weeks of January and egg hatching occurs in March. This study examined several issues, such as determining the optimal HKD spawning flow given the current lack of information on the relationship between egg abundance and adult recruitment; determining which flow experiment would generate the most information for the lowest cost; determining the worth of conducting such experiments to reduce uncertainty in whitefish recruitment dynamics; and, identifying the factors and assumptions that determine when flow experiments should be conducted to reduce uncertainty in whitefish dynamics in this and other systems. It was concluded that the decision to proceed with flow experiments depends on risk and return preferences and the interest rate used in determining the present value of future cash flows. Although power utilities may not consider flow experiments a worthwhile investment because of the low historical emphasis on mountain whitefish management, this analysis

  8. Decision tree analysis of factors influencing rainfall-related building damage

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. H. Spekkers

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Flood damage prediction models are essential building blocks in flood risk assessments. Little research has been dedicated so far to damage of small-scale urban floods caused by heavy rainfall, while there is a need for reliable damage models for this flood type among insurers and water authorities. The aim of this paper is to investigate a wide range of damage-influencing factors and their relationships with rainfall-related damage, using decision tree analysis. For this, district-aggregated claim data from private property insurance companies in the Netherlands were analysed, for the period of 1998–2011. The databases include claims of water-related damage, for example, damages related to rainwater intrusion through roofs and pluvial flood water entering buildings at ground floor. Response variables being modelled are average claim size and claim frequency, per district per day. The set of predictors include rainfall-related variables derived from weather radar images, topographic variables from a digital terrain model, building-related variables and socioeconomic indicators of households. Analyses were made separately for property and content damage claim data. Results of decision tree analysis show that claim frequency is most strongly associated with maximum hourly rainfall intensity, followed by real estate value, ground floor area, household income, season (property data only, buildings age (property data only, ownership structure (content data only and fraction of low-rise buildings (content data only. It was not possible to develop statistically acceptable trees for average claim size, which suggest that variability in average claim size is related to explanatory variables that cannot be defined at the district scale. Cross-validation results show that decision trees were able to predict 22–26% of variance in claim frequency, which is considerably better compared to results from global multiple regression models (11–18% of

  9. Decision tree analysis of factors influencing rainfall-related building damage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spekkers, M. H.; Kok, M.; Clemens, F. H. L. R.; ten Veldhuis, J. A. E.

    2014-04-01

    Flood damage prediction models are essential building blocks in flood risk assessments. Little research has been dedicated so far to damage of small-scale urban floods caused by heavy rainfall, while there is a need for reliable damage models for this flood type among insurers and water authorities. The aim of this paper is to investigate a wide range of damage-influencing factors and their relationships with rainfall-related damage, using decision tree analysis. For this, district-aggregated claim data from private property insurance companies in the Netherlands were analysed, for the period of 1998-2011. The databases include claims of water-related damage, for example, damages related to rainwater intrusion through roofs and pluvial flood water entering buildings at ground floor. Response variables being modelled are average claim size and claim frequency, per district per day. The set of predictors include rainfall-related variables derived from weather radar images, topographic variables from a digital terrain model, building-related variables and socioeconomic indicators of households. Analyses were made separately for property and content damage claim data. Results of decision tree analysis show that claim frequency is most strongly associated with maximum hourly rainfall intensity, followed by real estate value, ground floor area, household income, season (property data only), buildings age (property data only), ownership structure (content data only) and fraction of low-rise buildings (content data only). It was not possible to develop statistically acceptable trees for average claim size, which suggest that variability in average claim size is related to explanatory variables that cannot be defined at the district scale. Cross-validation results show that decision trees were able to predict 22-26% of variance in claim frequency, which is considerably better compared to results from global multiple regression models (11-18% of variance explained). Still, a

  10. Decision-tree analysis of factors influencing rainfall-related building structure and content damage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spekkers, M. H.; Kok, M.; Clemens, F. H. L. R.; ten Veldhuis, J. A. E.

    2014-09-01

    Flood-damage prediction models are essential building blocks in flood risk assessments. So far, little research has been dedicated to damage from small-scale urban floods caused by heavy rainfall, while there is a need for reliable damage models for this flood type among insurers and water authorities. The aim of this paper is to investigate a wide range of damage-influencing factors and their relationships with rainfall-related damage, using decision-tree analysis. For this, district-aggregated claim data from private property insurance companies in the Netherlands were analysed, for the period 1998-2011. The databases include claims of water-related damage (for example, damages related to rainwater intrusion through roofs and pluvial flood water entering buildings at ground floor). Response variables being modelled are average claim size and claim frequency, per district, per day. The set of predictors include rainfall-related variables derived from weather radar images, topographic variables from a digital terrain model, building-related variables and socioeconomic indicators of households. Analyses were made separately for property and content damage claim data. Results of decision-tree analysis show that claim frequency is most strongly associated with maximum hourly rainfall intensity, followed by real estate value, ground floor area, household income, season (property data only), buildings age (property data only), a fraction of homeowners (content data only), a and fraction of low-rise buildings (content data only). It was not possible to develop statistically acceptable trees for average claim size. It is recommended to investigate explanations for the failure to derive models. These require the inclusion of other explanatory factors that were not used in the present study, an investigation of the variability in average claim size at different spatial scales, and the collection of more detailed insurance data that allows one to distinguish between the

  11. Analysis of decision fusion algorithms in handling uncertainties for integrated health monitoring systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zein-Sabatto, Saleh; Mikhail, Maged; Bodruzzaman, Mohammad; DeSimio, Martin; Derriso, Mark; Behbahani, Alireza

    2012-06-01

    It has been widely accepted that data fusion and information fusion methods can improve the accuracy and robustness of decision-making in structural health monitoring systems. It is arguably true nonetheless, that decision-level is equally beneficial when applied to integrated health monitoring systems. Several decisions at low-levels of abstraction may be produced by different decision-makers; however, decision-level fusion is required at the final stage of the process to provide accurate assessment about the health of the monitored system as a whole. An example of such integrated systems with complex decision-making scenarios is the integrated health monitoring of aircraft. Thorough understanding of the characteristics of the decision-fusion methodologies is a crucial step for successful implementation of such decision-fusion systems. In this paper, we have presented the major information fusion methodologies reported in the literature, i.e., probabilistic, evidential, and artificial intelligent based methods. The theoretical basis and characteristics of these methodologies are explained and their performances are analyzed. Second, candidate methods from the above fusion methodologies, i.e., Bayesian, Dempster-Shafer, and fuzzy logic algorithms are selected and their applications are extended to decisions fusion. Finally, fusion algorithms are developed based on the selected fusion methods and their performance are tested on decisions generated from synthetic data and from experimental data. Also in this paper, a modeling methodology, i.e. cloud model, for generating synthetic decisions is presented and used. Using the cloud model, both types of uncertainties; randomness and fuzziness, involved in real decision-making are modeled. Synthetic decisions are generated with an unbiased process and varying interaction complexities among decisions to provide for fair performance comparison of the selected decision-fusion algorithms. For verification purposes

  12. Optimization and analysis of decision trees and rules: Dynamic programming approach

    KAUST Repository

    Alkhalid, Abdulaziz

    2013-08-01

    This paper is devoted to the consideration of software system Dagger created in KAUST. This system is based on extensions of dynamic programming. It allows sequential optimization of decision trees and rules relative to different cost functions, derivation of relationships between two cost functions (in particular, between number of misclassifications and depth of decision trees), and between cost and uncertainty of decision trees. We describe features of Dagger and consider examples of this systems work on decision tables from UCI Machine Learning Repository. We also use Dagger to compare 16 different greedy algorithms for decision tree construction. © 2013 Taylor and Francis Group, LLC.

  13. The Use of Decision Support Systems in Forest Management: Analysis of FORSYS Country Reports

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Silvana Nobre

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available From 2009 to 2013, a group of more than 100 researchers from 26 countries, under a COST-Action project named FORSYS, worked on a review of the use of forest management decision support systems (FMDSS. Guided by a template, local researchers conducted assessments of FMDSS use in their countries; their results were documented in Country Reports. In this study, we have used the Country Reports to construct a summary of FMDSS use. For the purposes of our analysis, we conducted a two-round categorisation of the main themes to describe the most relevant aspects of FMDSS use. The material produced was used to generate quantitative summaries of (i the types of problem where FMDSS are used, (ii models and methods used to solve these problems, (iii knowledge management techniques, and (iv participatory planning techniques. Beyond this, a qualitative analysis identified and summarised the local researchers’ primary concerns, recorded in the conclusions to the Country Reports; we designated these “lessons learned”. Results from the quantitative analysis suggested that most of the participant countries were making use of latest generation FMDSS. A few did not have practical problems that justified the use of such technology or they were still at the beginning of the process of building models to solve their own forest problems.

  14. Aerial radiometric and magnetic reconnaissance survey of portions of Arizona--New Mexico, Mesa Quadrangle. [NURE program, 110 uranium anomalies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1978-11-01

    The results of a high-sensitivity aerial gamma-ray spectrometer and magnetometer survey of the Mesa Quadrangle, Arizona, are presented. Statistical and geological analysis of the radiometric data revealed 110 uranium anomalies worthy of field checking as possible prospects. Sixty-three anomalies suggest the presence of vein-type uranium in acid igneous rocks of Tertiary to Mesozoic age. Twenty-three anomalies are related to Precambrian granites and three to Precambrian schists. The Dripping Spring Quartzite, which has the greatest possibility for mineralization in the Mesa Quadrangle, is associated with 16 anomalies. Six anomalies may indicate uranium mineralization in the potentially favorable Supai Formation in the northeastern part of the quadrangle. The presence of possible stratiform uranium deposits in basins is indicated by 35 anomalies in rocks varying in age from Quaternary to Cretaceous. Ranges appearing most favorable for uranium mineralization include Humbolt Mountain, West Granite-Herder Mountains area, Pine Mountain--Four Peaks area, Fish Creek--Iron Mountains area, Dripping Spring--Tortilla-Mescal Mountains zone, west side of Gila Mountains, Sierra Ancha, and east of the Sierra Ancha.

  15. RiskChanges Spatial Decision Support system for the analysis of changing multi-hazard risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Westen, Cees; Zhang, Kaixi; Bakker, Wim; Andrejchenko, Vera; Berlin, Julian; Olyazadeh, Roya; Cristal, Irina

    2015-04-01

    Within the framework of the EU FP7 Marie Curie Project CHANGES and the EU FP7 Copernicus project INCREO a spatial decision support system was developed with the aim to analyse the effect of risk reduction planning alternatives on reducing the risk now and in the future, and support decision makers in selecting the best alternatives. Central to the SDSS are the stakeholders. The envisaged users of the system are organizations involved in planning of risk reduction measures, and that have staff capable of visualizing and analyzing spatial data at a municipal scale. The SDSS should be able to function in different countries with different legal frameworks and with organizations with different mandates. These could be subdivided into Civil protection organization with the mandate to design disaster response plans, Expert organizations with the mandate to design structural risk reduction measures (e.g. dams, dikes, check-dams etc), and planning organizations with the mandate to make land development plans. The SDSS can be used in different ways: analyzing the current level of risk, analyzing the best alternatives for risk reduction, the evaluation of the consequences of possible future scenarios to the risk levels, and the evaluation how different risk reduction alternatives will lead to risk reduction under different future scenarios. The SDSS is developed based on open source software and following open standards, for code as well as for data formats and service interfaces. Code development was based upon open source software as well. The architecture of the system is modular. The various parts of the system are loosely coupled, extensible, using standards for interoperability, flexible and web-based. The Spatial Decision Support System is composed of a number of integrated components. The Risk Assessment component allows to carry out spatial risk analysis, with different degrees of complexity, ranging from simple exposure (overlay of hazard and assets maps) to

  16. The Application of Climate Risk Informed Decision Analysis to the Ioland Water Treatment Plant in Lusaka, Zambia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kucharski, John; Tkach, Mark; Olszewski, Jennifer; Chaudhry, Rabia; Mendoza, Guillermo

    2016-04-01

    This presentation demonstrates the application of Climate Risk Informed Decision Analysis (CRIDA) at Zambia's principal water treatment facility, The Iolanda Water Treatment Plant. The water treatment plant is prone to unacceptable failures during periods of low hydropower production at the Kafue Gorge Dam Hydroelectric Power Plant. The case study explores approaches of increasing the water treatment plant's ability to deliver acceptable levels of service under the range of current and potential future climate states. The objective of the study is to investigate alternative investments to build system resilience that might have been informed by the CRIDA process, and to evaluate the extra resource requirements by a bilateral donor agency to implement the CRIDA process. The case study begins with an assessment of the water treatment plant's vulnerability to climate change. It does so by following general principals described in "Confronting Climate Uncertainty in Water Resource Planning and Project Design: the Decision Tree Framework". By utilizing relatively simple bootstrapping methods a range of possible future climate states is generated while avoiding the use of more complex and costly downscaling methodologies; that are beyond the budget and technical capacity of many teams. The resulting climate vulnerabilities and uncertainty in the climate states that produce them are analyzed as part of a "Level of Concern" analysis. CRIDA principals are then applied to this Level of Concern analysis in order to arrive at a set of actionable water management decisions. The principal goals of water resource management is to transform variable, uncertain hydrology into dependable services (e.g. water supply, flood risk reduction, ecosystem benefits, hydropower production, etc…). Traditional approaches to climate adaptation require the generation of predicted future climate states but do little guide decision makers how this information should impact decision making. In

  17. Assessing Interventions to Manage West Nile Virus Using Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis with Risk Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hongoh, Valerie; Campagna, Céline; Panic, Mirna; Samuel, Onil; Gosselin, Pierre; Waaub, Jean-Philippe; Ravel, André; Samoura, Karim; Michel, Pascal

    2016-01-01

    The recent emergence of West Nile virus (WNV) in North America highlights vulnerability to climate sensitive diseases and stresses the importance of preventive efforts to reduce their public health impact. Effective prevention involves reducing environmental risk of exposure and increasing adoption of preventive behaviours, both of which depend on knowledge and acceptance of such measures. When making operational decisions about disease prevention and control, public health must take into account a wide range of operational, environmental, social and economic considerations in addition to intervention effectiveness. The current study aimed to identify, assess and rank possible risk reduction measures taking into account a broad set of criteria and perspectives applicable to the management of WNV in Quebec under increasing transmission risk scenarios, some of which may be related to ongoing warming in higher-latitude regions. A participatory approach was used to collect information on categories of concern to relevant stakeholders with respect to WNV prevention and control. Multi-criteria decision analysis was applied to examine stakeholder perspectives and their effect on strategy rankings under increasing transmission risk scenarios. Twenty-three preventive interventions were retained for evaluation using eighteen criteria identified by stakeholders. Combined evaluations revealed that, at an individual-level, inspecting window screen integrity, wearing light colored, long clothing, eliminating peridomestic larval sites and reducing outdoor activities at peak times were top interventions under six WNV transmission scenarios. At a regional-level, the use of larvicides was a preferred strategy in five out of six scenarios, while use of adulticides and dissemination of sterile male mosquitoes were found to be among the least favoured interventions in almost all scenarios. Our findings suggest that continued public health efforts aimed at reinforcing individual

  18. Assessing Interventions to Manage West Nile Virus Using Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis with Risk Scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hongoh, Valerie; Campagna, Céline; Panic, Mirna; Samuel, Onil; Gosselin, Pierre; Waaub, Jean-Philippe; Ravel, André; Samoura, Karim; Michel, Pascal

    2016-01-01

    The recent emergence of West Nile virus (WNV) in North America highlights vulnerability to climate sensitive diseases and stresses the importance of preventive efforts to reduce their public health impact. Effective prevention involves reducing environmental risk of exposure and increasing adoption of preventive behaviours, both of which depend on knowledge and acceptance of such measures. When making operational decisions about disease prevention and control, public health must take into account a wide range of operational, environmental, social and economic considerations in addition to intervention effectiveness. The current study aimed to identify, assess and rank possible risk reduction measures taking into account a broad set of criteria and perspectives applicable to the management of WNV in Quebec under increasing transmission risk scenarios, some of which may be related to ongoing warming in higher-latitude regions. A participatory approach was used to collect information on categories of concern to relevant stakeholders with respect to WNV prevention and control. Multi-criteria decision analysis was applied to examine stakeholder perspectives and their effect on strategy rankings under increasing transmission risk scenarios. Twenty-three preventive interventions were retained for evaluation using eighteen criteria identified by stakeholders. Combined evaluations revealed that, at an individual-level, inspecting window screen integrity, wearing light colored, long clothing, eliminating peridomestic larval sites and reducing outdoor activities at peak times were top interventions under six WNV transmission scenarios. At a regional-level, the use of larvicides was a preferred strategy in five out of six scenarios, while use of adulticides and dissemination of sterile male mosquitoes were found to be among the least favoured interventions in almost all scenarios. Our findings suggest that continued public health efforts aimed at reinforcing individual

  19. Practical results of the MESA 1 line calcinator trial operation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mobile calcination and cementation unit MESA 1 was designed and built by UJV Rez in cooperation with many enterprises, mainly with the Kralovopolske Strojirny Brno. This facility for direct fixation of liquid radioactive wastes was experimentally tested using model non-radioactive solutions and model and actual wastes from the Jaslovske Bohunice nuclear power plant. The calciner was run in trial operation at the Kralovopolske SAtrojirny Brno. A total of 1.3 m3 of model solutions was processed into 180 kg of calcinate. The fixation of the calcinate in cement, the times of solidification and of hardening and the moisture content of concrete blocks were studied. The application was also tested of the calciner in drying ion exchangers from WWER-440 prior to their bituminization. Following the despatch of the cementation module to the Chernobyl nuclear power plant, the direct calcination module was tested at Dukovany together with an auxiliary module which makes possible self-contained calciner operation. Model non-radioactive solutions from the Dukovany nuclear power plant were treated containing H3BO3 and NaNO3 as main components. The usability in actual conditions of the mobile calcination and cementation unit for radioactive wastes was tested in a total of about 70 operating hours. (E.S.). 2 figs., 2 refs

  20. Estimation of a quantity of interest in uncertainty analysis: Some help from Bayesian decision theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In the context of risk analysis under uncertainty, we focus here on the problem of estimating a so-called quantity of interest of an uncertainty analysis problem, i.e. a given feature of the probability distribution function (pdf) of the output of a deterministic model with uncertain inputs. We will stay here in a fully probabilistic setting. A common problem is how to account for epistemic uncertainty tainting the parameter of the probability distribution of the inputs. In the standard practice, this uncertainty is often neglected (plug-in approach). When a specific uncertainty assessment is made, under the basis of the available information (expertise and/or data), a common solution consists in marginalizing the joint distribution of both observable inputs and parameters of the probabilistic model (i.e. computing the predictive pdf of the inputs), then propagating it through the deterministic model. We will reinterpret this approach in the light of Bayesian decision theory, and will put into evidence that this practice leads the analyst to adopt implicitly a specific loss function which may be inappropriate for the problem under investigation, and suboptimal from a decisional perspective. These concepts are illustrated on a simple numerical example, concerning a case of flood risk assessment.

  1. Quantification of a decision-making failure probability of the accident management using cognitive analysis model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In a nuclear power plant, much knowledge on severe accidents has been acquired through PSA, and accident management (AM) guidelines are prepared by incorporating that knowledge. In PSA, it is necessary to evaluate the effectiveness of AM using the decision-making failure probability (DFP) of an emergency organization, operation failure probability of operators, success criteria of AM and reliability of AM equipment. However, to date there has been no suitable quantification method for PSA to obtain DFP. In this study, we developed a new method for DFP quantification of an emergency organization using a cognitive analysis model, and tried to apply it to S2DC and TMLF sequence of a typical plant. As a result: (1) The methods enabled to DFP quantification appropriate to level 1.5PSA by choosing the suitable value of a basic failure probability and an error factor. (2) The DFPs of six AMs appeared to be in the range of 0.23 to 0.41 (screening method) and in the range of 0.10 to 0.19 (detailed method), and the DFP decreased about 50% as a result of sensitivity analysis of the conservative assumption. (3) The screening method was more conservative than the detailed method, and it was shown to satisfy the screening performance required by PSA. (author)

  2. An Alternative Methodological Approach for Cost-Effectiveness Analysis and Decision Making in Genomic Medicine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fragoulakis, Vasilios; Mitropoulou, Christina; van Schaik, Ron H; Maniadakis, Nikolaos; Patrinos, George P

    2016-05-01

    Genomic Medicine aims to improve therapeutic interventions and diagnostics, the quality of life of patients, but also to rationalize healthcare costs. To reach this goal, careful assessment and identification of evidence gaps for public health genomics priorities are required so that a more efficient healthcare environment is created. Here, we propose a public health genomics-driven approach to adjust the classical healthcare decision making process with an alternative methodological approach of cost-effectiveness analysis, which is particularly helpful for genomic medicine interventions. By combining classical cost-effectiveness analysis with budget constraints, social preferences, and patient ethics, we demonstrate the application of this model, the Genome Economics Model (GEM), based on a previously reported genome-guided intervention from a developing country environment. The model and the attendant rationale provide a practical guide by which all major healthcare stakeholders could ensure the sustainability of funding for genome-guided interventions, their adoption and coverage by health insurance funds, and prioritization of Genomic Medicine research, development, and innovation, given the restriction of budgets, particularly in developing countries and low-income healthcare settings in developed countries. The implications of the GEM for the policy makers interested in Genomic Medicine and new health technology and innovation assessment are also discussed. PMID:27096406

  3. A Meta-Analysis of Blood Glucose Effects on Human Decision Making

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Orquin, Jacob Lund; Kurzban, Robert

    2016-01-01

    identified 42 studies relating to 4 dimensions of decision making: willingness to pay, willingness to work, time discounting, and decision style. We did not find a uniform influence of blood glucose on decision making. Instead, we found that low levels of blood glucose increase the willingness to pay and...... willingness to work when a situation is food related, but decrease willingness to pay and work in all other situations. Low levels of blood glucose increase the future discount rate for food; that is, decision makers become more impatient, and to a lesser extent increase the future discount rate for money....... Low levels of blood glucose also increase the tendency to make more intuitive rather than deliberate decisions. However, this effect was only observed in situations unrelated to food. We conclude that blood glucose has domain-specific effects, influencing decision making differently depending on the...

  4. Multi-criteria multi-stakeholder decision analysis using a fuzzy-stochastic approach for hydrosystem management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Subagadis, Y. H.; Schütze, N.; Grundmann, J.

    2014-09-01

    The conventional methods used to solve multi-criteria multi-stakeholder problems are less strongly formulated, as they normally incorporate only homogeneous information at a time and suggest aggregating objectives of different decision-makers avoiding water-society interactions. In this contribution, Multi-Criteria Group Decision Analysis (MCGDA) using a fuzzy-stochastic approach has been proposed to rank a set of alternatives in water management decisions incorporating heterogeneous information under uncertainty. The decision making framework takes hydrologically, environmentally, and socio-economically motivated conflicting objectives into consideration. The criteria related to the performance of the physical system are optimized using multi-criteria simulation-based optimization, and fuzzy linguistic quantifiers have been used to evaluate subjective criteria and to assess stakeholders' degree of optimism. The proposed methodology is applied to find effective and robust intervention strategies for the management of a coastal hydrosystem affected by saltwater intrusion due to excessive groundwater extraction for irrigated agriculture and municipal use. Preliminary results show that the MCGDA based on a fuzzy-stochastic approach gives useful support for robust decision-making and is sensitive to the decision makers' degree of optimism.

  5. Game Theory Model and Equilibrium Analysis of Peasant's Production Decision

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Qi Xue-lian; Zhang Ya-zhuo; Meng Jun

    2012-01-01

    Unbalanced agricultural production decision becomes the great block that influences the effective distribution of social resources, national grain security, social stability and economic development. This paper took the game theory as an analyzed tool to describe the interactional processes among the peasants, and set up the game theory model of independent decision and joint decision by peasants. It was shown that the government's positive guide and the market environment macroscopically controlled by the government could effectively increased the peasants' income

  6. Estimation of Groundwater Recharge at Pahute Mesa using the Chloride Mass-Balance Method

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cooper, Clay A [DRI; Hershey, Ronald L [DRI; Healey, John M [DRI; Lyles, Brad F [DRI

    2013-07-01

    Groundwater recharge on Pahute Mesa was estimated using the chloride mass-balance (CMB) method. This method relies on the conservative properties of chloride to trace its movement from the atmosphere as dry- and wet-deposition through the soil zone and ultimately to the saturated zone. Typically, the CMB method assumes no mixing of groundwater with different chloride concentrations; however, because groundwater is thought to flow into Pahute Mesa from valleys north of Pahute Mesa, groundwater flow rates (i.e., underflow) and chloride concentrations from Kawich Valley and Gold Flat were carefully considered. Precipitation was measured with bulk and tipping-bucket precipitation gauges installed for this study at six sites on Pahute Mesa. These data, along with historical precipitation amounts from gauges on Pahute Mesa and estimates from the PRISM model, were evaluated to estimate mean annual precipitation. Chloride deposition from the atmosphere was estimated by analyzing quarterly samples of wet- and dry-deposition for chloride in the bulk gauges and evaluating chloride wet-deposition amounts measured at other locations by the National Atmospheric Deposition Program. Mean chloride concentrations in groundwater were estimated using data from the UGTA Geochemistry Database, data from other reports, and data from samples collected from emplacement boreholes for this study. Calculations were conducted assuming both no underflow and underflow from Kawich Valley and Gold Flat. Model results estimate recharge to be 30 mm/yr with a standard deviation of 18 mm/yr on Pahute Mesa, for elevations >1800 m amsl. These estimates assume Pahute Mesa recharge mixes completely with underflow from Kawich Valley and Gold Flat. The model assumes that precipitation, chloride concentration in bulk deposition, underflow and its chloride concentration, have been constant over the length of time of recharge.

  7. Tunneling characteristics for nm-thick mesas consisting of a few intrinsic Josephson junctions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suzuki, Minoru; Ohmaki, Masayuki; Takemura, Ryota; Hamada, Kenji; Watanabe, Takao; Ota, Kensuke; Kitano, Haruhisa; Maeda, Atsutaka

    2008-10-01

    Very thin mesa structures consisting of a few intrinsic Josephson junctions have been fabricated on single crystal surfaces of Bi2Sr2CaCu2O8+δ. In the fabrication procedure, annealing is conducted after the mesa structure is formed by Ar ion milling. Or, the annealing is skipped and, instead, the electrodes to the mesas have been deposited in vacuum immediately after crystals are cleaved. We have attained both uniform current-voltage (I-V) characteristics and small contact resistances, which are usually difficult to obtain at the same time in the case of nm-thick mesa structures. For the mesas thus fabricated, it is found that the Josephson critical current Jc of the top IJJ (the surface junction) is reduced significantly. The reduction of Jc is more significant when the doping level of the crystal used is lower. We argue that this is due to the proximity efiect of the surface junction, in which the top electrode is in close proximity with the Ag or Au film of a thickness of the order of 300 nm. For mesas obtained by this method, the switching probability distribution has been measured. It is found that when the mesa lateral size is larger than 2 μm the switching is unreproducible and lacking systematic temperature dependence. It is also found that escape temperature Tesc and the standard deviation σ for the switching probability distribution exhibits a large deviation from the Kramers' thermal activation theory. When the lateral size is no larger than 2 μm, the switching probability distribution results show coincidence with the theory in the temperature range from 1.3 K to 5 K. Below 0.5 K, the escape temperature tends to saturate and indicates a crossover near 0.5 K from the thermal activation to the macroscopic quantum tunneling.

  8. How Can We Make Progress with Decision Support Systems in Landscape and River Basin Management? Lessons Learned from a Comparative Analysis of Four Different Decision Support Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Volk, Martin; Lautenbach, Sven; van Delden, Hedwig; Newham, Lachlan T. H.; Seppelt, Ralf

    2010-12-01

    This article analyses the benefits and shortcomings of the recently developed decision support systems (DSS) FLUMAGIS, Elbe-DSS, CatchMODS, and MedAction. The analysis elaborates on the following aspects: (i) application area/decision problem, (ii) stakeholder interaction/users involved, (iii) structure of DSS/model structure, (iv) usage of the DSS, and finally (v) most important shortcomings. On the basis of this analysis, we formulate four criteria that we consider essential for the successful use of DSS in landscape and river basin management. The criteria relate to (i) system quality, (ii) user support and user training, (iii) perceived usefulness and (iv) user satisfaction. We can show that the availability of tools and technologies for DSS in landscape and river basin management is good to excellent. However, our investigations indicate that several problems have to be tackled. First of all, data availability and homogenisation, uncertainty analysis and uncertainty propagation and problems with model integration require further attention. Furthermore, the appropriate and methodological stakeholder interaction and the definition of `what end-users really need and want' have been documented as general shortcomings of all four examples of DSS. Thus, we propose an iterative development process that enables social learning of the different groups involved in the development process, because it is easier to design a DSS for a group of stakeholders who actively participate in an iterative process. We also identify two important lines of further development in DSS: the use of interactive visualization tools and the methodology of optimization to inform scenario elaboration and evaluate trade-offs among environmental measures and management alternatives.

  9. Increasing the efficiency and effectiveness of environmental decisions: Benefit-cost analysis and effluent fees: A critical review

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The objective of this critical review is to evaluate and summarize the literature on economic tools used to improve environmental decision making. Environmental decisions are complicated by pervasive uncertainty, and the lack of consensus on goals and on tradeoffs, such as air versus water pollution and versus loss of coal mining jobs. Five decision frameworks are used by regulatory agencies to simplify decision making. Congress' choice of a decision framework designates the amount of data and analysis that will be required and the range and depth of social values that must be considered. Economic incentives have worked well for phasing out lead in gasoline, for increasing recycling and for reducing the volume of municipal solid waste. Congress has mandated incentives for acid rain and CFCs, and several countries have implemented carbon taxes to abate greenhouse gas emissions. Economic tools have become more central to the analysis and implementation of environmental policies; their role should continue to increase. We conclude that economic tools are extremely valuable, although their application is difficult

  10. Analysis for making a regulatory decision to equipment of industrial gammagraphy in Argentin; Analisis para la toma de decision regulatoria sobre equipos de gammagrafia industrial en Argentina

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ermacora, Marcela G.; Vidal, Dora N.; Alonso, Maria T., E-mail: mermacora@arn.gob.ar, E-mail: dvidal@arn.gob.ar, E-mail: malonso@arn.gob.ar [Autoridad Regulatoria Nuclear (ARN), Buenos Aires (Argentina)

    2013-10-01

    Industrial gammagraphy is a practice widely used as a nondestructive testing technique in Argentina. Experience worldwide has shown the need for an improvement in the intrinsic safety of the equipment used in this lab. In response to this reason, the board of the Nuclear Regulatory Authority (ARN) has considered a proposal to withdraw service movement and much of the equipment inventory scan belonging to industrial facilities nationwide. The main objective of this paper is to present the results of the analysis performed to support the above proposal. The main elements of evaluation can be summarized as follows: I) the teams that do not conform to international recommendations regarding compliance with key safety requirements of international standards such as ISO 3999:2004 (E) {sup R}adiation protection - Industrial Apparatus for gamma radiography - Specifications for performance, design and tests {sup ;} II) the decision by some manufacturers to discontinue production of certain models of equipment and the provision of spare parts, and III) the validity of certificates bulk type B (U) for transport. In conclusion, it highlights the importance of a regulatory decision supplementary to the Standard AR 7.9.1 concerning the operation of scan equipment industry, based on current international recommendations and Argentina's commitment to good practice and safety culture which can lead to a positive impact on radiation safety in this art.

  11. A medical decision analysis of invasive bladder cancer - radical cystectomy versus chemoradiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Purpose - A medical decision analysis was performed for invasive bladder cancer to determine which of the two treatments - radical cystectomy with continent reservoir (CYST) or concurrent cisplatinum-based chemotherapy/radiotherapy with salvage cystectomy (CT/RT) - produces the highest quality-adjusted survival. Sensitivity analysis was performed to discover which treatment-related factors significantly affect the result. Method - A 25-variable decision tree was constructed on the choice between CYST and CT/RT. A review of the literature produced the following variables: the chance of micrometastatic (incurable) disease is 35%; treatment-related mortality is 2% for CYST, and 3% for CT/RT; the complete response rate for the 4-month CT/RT protocol is 68% and non-responders underwent immediate salvage CYST without producing de novo distant metastasis; late local relapse is 10% for CYST and 25% for CT/RT, occurring 9 months post-treatment; and a CYST relapse is fatal. The following assumptions were manufactured: 65% of late CT/RT relapses are salvaged for cure; the quality-adjusted life-years (QALY) for death from distant metastasis is 0.8; the treatment-phase utility of CT/RT is 70%; the long-term utility for CYST is 90% and for CT/RT is 98%; and the life expectancy of a long-term survivor is 10 years. The outcome is measured in QALYs - the sum of the products of the time and the utility of each phase in a patient's life. Results - The base case shows that CT/RT produced an aggregate of 5.42 QALYs and CYST 5.35 QALYs. Multiple factors within their plausible range influenced which is the preferred treatment. The most significant factors (threshold values in parenthesis) included the probability of CT/RT-induced death (6.5%), the added risk of an operative death after CT/RT (4.6%), life expectancy (9 months) and most importantly the relative differences in the long-term utilities of the two treatments. (5-6% better in the CT/RT arm). The percentage of long

  12. College Women's Stay/Leave Decisions in Abusive Dating Relationships: A Prospective Analysis of an Expanded Investment Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwards, Katie M.; Gidycz, Christine A.; Murphy, Megan J.

    2011-01-01

    The purpose of the current study was to explore college women's stay/ leave decisions in abusive relationships using a prospective methodology. Participants (N = 323) completed surveys at the beginning and end of a 10-week academic quarter for course credit. A path analysis suggested that the model--which included investment model variables (i.e.,…

  13. GIS-based Landing-Site Analysis and Passive Decision Support

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Gasselt, Stephan; Nass, Andrea

    2016-04-01

    The increase of surface coverage and the availability and accessibility of planetary data allow researchers and engineers to remotely perform detailed studies on surface processes and properties, in particular on objects such as Mars and the Moon for which Terabytes of multi-temporal data at multiple spatial resolution levels have become available during the last 15 years. Orbiters, rovers and landers have been returning information and insights into the surface evolution of the terrestrial planets in unprecedented detail. While rover- and lander-based analyses are one major research aim to obtain ground truth, resource exploration or even potential establishment of bases using autonomous platforms are others and they require detailed investigation of settings in order to identify spots on the surface that are suitable for spacecraft to land and operate safely and over a long period of time. What has been done using hardcopy material in the past is today being carried by using either in-house developments or off-the-shelf spatial information system technology which allows to manage, integrate and analyse data as well as visualize and create user-defined reports for performing assessments. Usually, such analyses can be broken down (manually) by considering scientific wishes, engineering boundary conditions, potential hazards and various tertiary constraints. We here (1) review standard tasks of landing site analyses, (2) discuss issues inherently related to the analysis using integrated spatial analysis systems and (3) demonstrate a modular analysis framework for integration of data and for the evaluation of results from individual tasks in order to support decisions for landing-site selection.

  14. Analysis of Decision Factors for the Application of Information Access Controls within the Organization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foerster, Carl A.

    2013-01-01

    The application of access controls on internal information necessarily impacts the availability of that information for sharing inside the enterprise. The decisions establishing the degree of control are a crucial first step to balance the requirements to protect and share. This research develops a set of basic decision factors and examines other…

  15. Decision-Support Data Analysis: Examining Consistency among Teachers in Writing Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Archbald, Doug

    2011-01-01

    Education leaders and much literature exhort teachers and school leaders to use data more often and more effectively to guide planning and decision making--called, "data driven decision making." This term is ubiquitous in literature and reform discourse, but "on the ground," so to speak, practitioners face significant challenges in analyzing,…

  16. Case Study on High Dimensional Data Analysis Using Decision Tree Model

    OpenAIRE

    Smitha.T; Sundaram, V.

    2012-01-01

    The major aspire of this paper is to build a model to predict the chances of occurrences of disease in an area. This paper mainly concentrating the data mining technique-Decision tree model to identify the significant parameters for prediction process. The decision tree model created with the help of ID3 algorithm.

  17. COMMUNITY CHOICES AND HOUSING DECISIONS: A SPATIAL ANALYSIS OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN HIGHLANDS

    OpenAIRE

    Cho, Seong-Hoon; Newman, David H.; Wear, David N.

    2003-01-01

    This paper examines land development using an integrated approach that combines residential decisions about choices of community in the Southern Appalachian region with the application of the GIS (Geographical Information System). The empirical model infers a distinctive heterogeneity in the characteristics of community choices. The results also indicate that socioeconomic motives strongly affect urban housing decisions while environmental amenities affect those of rural housing.

  18. Despite Best Intentions: A Critical Analysis of Social Justice Leadership and Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeMatthews, David E.; Mungal, Angus Shiva; Carrola, Paul A.

    2015-01-01

    The purpose of this article is to explore the relationship between social justice leadership and organizational decision making in order to make recommendations for how principals can make more socially just decisions in difficult school contexts. This article begins with a discussion of social justice leadership, facets and theories associated…

  19. "Junior Doctor Decision Making: Isn't that an Oxymoron?" A Qualitative Analysis of Junior Doctors' Ward-Based Decision-Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bull, Stephanie; Mattick, Karen; Postlethwaite, Keith

    2013-01-01

    Unacceptable levels of adverse healthcare events, combined with changes to training, have put the spotlight on junior doctor decision-making. This study aimed to describe the decisions made by junior doctors and the contextual factors influencing how decisions were made and justified. Stimulated recall interviews with 20 junior doctors across five…

  20. Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis for Health Care Decision Making—Emerging Good Practices: Report 2 of the ISPOR MCDA Emerging Good Practices Task Force

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Marsh, Kevin; IJzerman, Maarten; Thokala, Praveen; Baltussen, Rob; Boysen, Meindert; Kalo, Zoltan; Longrenn, Thomas; Mussen, Filip; Peacock, Stuart; Watkins, John; Devlin, Nancy

    2016-01-01

    Health care decisions are complex and involve confronting trade-offs between multiple, often conflicting objectives. Using structured, explicit approaches to decisions involving multiple criteria can improve the quality of decision making. A set of techniques, known under the collective heading mult

  1. Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis for Health Care Decision Making—An Introduction: Report 1 of the ISPOR MCDA Emerging Good Practices Task Force

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Thokala, Praveen; Devlin, Nancy; Marsh, Kevin; Baltussen, Rob; Boysen, Meindert; Kalo, Zoltan; Longrenn, Thomas; Mussen, Filip; Peacock, Stuart; Watkins, John; IJzerman, Maarten

    2016-01-01

    Health care decisions are complex and involve confronting trade-offs between multiple, often conflicting, objectives. Using structured, explicit approaches to decisions involving multiple criteria can improve the quality of decision making and a set of techniques, known under the collective heading

  2. Analysis of Farmers’ Fundemantal Farm Management Decisions in Terms of Priority and Getting Support

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Gunden

    2008-05-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this study is to analyse farmers‟ fundemantal farm management decisions such as technical support, planning and recording. Furthermore, institutonal preferences of the farmers for getting support related to farm management decision making by using Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP. Tobit model was used to determine factors influencing farmer‟s decision priority and institution preference. As for the farmers‟ priorities to fundamental management decisions under investigation, planning (0.585 was the first and the following was technical support (0.336. The farmers are particularly interested in the question of “how much to produce the crops”, not “what crops to be produced”. The farmers prefer university (0.273 for making the fundamental farm management decisions. As the farmer‟s age, education and farm size increase, the priority of planning and the preference of university increase.

  3. Using systems analysis to improve decision making in solving mixed waste problems at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Systems analysis methods and tools have been developed and applied to the problem of selecting treatment technologies for mixed wastes. The approach, which is based on decision analysis, process modeling, and process simulation with a tool developed in-house, provides a one-of-a-kind resource for waste treatment alternatives evaluation and has played a key role in developing mandated treatment plans for Oak Ridge Reservation mixed waste

  4. Real options analysis as a decision-making tool - A preliminary investigation of the real estate investment executive perspective

    OpenAIRE

    Vimpari, Jussi; Junnila, Seppo

    2015-01-01

    This paper attempts to identify literature where real options analysis (ROA) has enhanced real estate investment analysis and decision-making as well as to conduct a preliminary investigation of how ROA is known and perceived by senior real estate investment executives. The research is carried out as an exploratory study where the data for the research is gathered via semi-structured interviews with senior executives in real estate investment companies. All of the interviewees expressed...

  5. A hybrid multiple criteria decision analysis framework for corporate social responsibility implementation applied to an extractive industry case study

    OpenAIRE

    Poplawska, Jolanta; Labib, Ashraf; Reed, Debbie

    2015-01-01

    Integration of Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) into a company’s mainstream strategy is a complex task. Practical implementation of CSR requires analysis of both the external and internal environments to determine the prospects and challenges significantly influencing integration of sustainability into business strategy. In order to overcome limitations of single multi criteria decision analysis (MCDA) models, this article proposes a hybrid integrated framework combining cognitive mappin...

  6. Is There Hidden Value in Real Estate Investments? - Real Options Analysis Provides Rationale to Contingent Investment Decisions

    OpenAIRE

    Vimpari, Jussi

    2014-01-01

    The understanding of real options analysis (ROA) has been claimed by academics to be extremely valuable for the real estate industry; yet adoption of the method in practice has been very slow. The aim of this dissertation is to examine opportunities that ROA opens in real estate investment analysis and decision-making as well as to demonstrate the actual real option value in some topical areas of real estate investment. The study utilizes a mixed method research strategy with both quantita...

  7. A Decision Support Framework for Feasibility Analysis of International Space Station (ISS) Research Capability Enhancing Options

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ortiz, James N.; Scott,Kelly; Smith, Harold

    2004-01-01

    The assembly and operation of the ISS has generated significant challenges that have ultimately impacted resources available to the program's primary mission: research. To address this, program personnel routinely perform trade-off studies on alternative options to enhance research. The approach, content level of analysis and resulting outputs of these studies vary due to many factors, however, complicating the Program Manager's job of selecting the best option. To address this, the program requested a framework be developed to evaluate multiple research-enhancing options in a thorough, disciplined and repeatable manner, and to identify the best option on the basis of cost, benefit and risk. The resulting framework consisted of a systematic methodology and a decision-support toolset. The framework provides quantifiable and repeatable means for ranking research-enhancing options for the complex and multiple-constraint domain of the space research laboratory. This paper describes the development, verification and validation of this framework and provides observations on its operational use.

  8. Integrating multi-criteria decision analysis for a GIS-based hazardous waste landfill sitting in Kurdistan Province, western Iran

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The evaluation of a hazardous waste disposal site is a complicated process because it requires data from diverse social and environmental fields. These data often involve processing of a significant amount of spatial information which can be used by GIS as an important tool for land use suitability analysis. This paper presents a multi-criteria decision analysis alongside with a geospatial analysis for the selection of hazardous waste landfill sites in Kurdistan Province, western Iran. The study employs a two-stage analysis to provide a spatial decision support system for hazardous waste management in a typically under developed region. The purpose of GIS was to perform an initial screening process to eliminate unsuitable land followed by utilization of a multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) to identify the most suitable sites using the information provided by the regional experts with reference to new chosen criteria. Using 21 exclusionary criteria, as input layers, masked maps were prepared. Creating various intermediate or analysis map layers a final overlay map was obtained representing areas for hazardous waste landfill sites. In order to evaluate different landfill sites produced by the overlaying a landfill suitability index system was developed representing cumulative effects of relative importance (weights) and suitability values of 14 non-exclusionary criteria including several criteria resulting from field observation. Using this suitability index 15 different sites were visited and based on the numerical evaluation provided by MCDA most suitable sites were determined.

  9. Analysis of legal cases for prevention of elder abuse: decisions from New Zealand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diesfeld, Kate

    2011-06-01

    Elder abuse is a universal concern and is gaining greater public and professional attention. This increased concern to protect elders is internationally evident in policy reform, multidisciplinary research and education. Yet neglect in care settings continues. This research responds by contributing to the international effort to promote humane care for elders who are in a position of dependence, particularly in residential facilities. The legal cases that result from some complaints by aggrieved elders and their advocates may offer insights that are relevant for prevention. While the law is often viewed merely as a system of control, it may also be a resource for learning, particularly in the context of abuse prevention. Although the analysis references New Zealand law, the discussion may have broader application by indicating factors that precede, or trigger, unacceptable conduct. By understanding what went wrong and why, we may decrease the likelihood of future incidents. Also, understanding the legal ramifications may have a deterrent effect. Many advocates and activists have asked how we can ensure that abuses do not recur; some answers may lie within the legal cases themselves. How may recent legal cases be used to prevent mistreatment of elders in residential facilities? This question is applied to select decisions of New Zealand's Health and Disability Commissioner, Human Rights Review Tribunal and Health Practitioners Disciplinary Tribunal. While each body has distinct functions, relevant factors identified within the cases may reveal information that is of interest to elderly people and their advocates, caregivers, health educators and professional registration bodies. The research is timely in light of New Zealand's Review of Elder Abuse and Neglect Prevention Services in New Zealand (Department of Child Youth and Family Services, 2004) and New Zealand's Positive Ageing Strategy (Office of Senior Citizens, 2001). This article incorporates current debates

  10. The Best Path Analysis in Military Highway Transport Based on DEA and Multiobjective Fuzzy Decision-Making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wu Juan

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Military transport path selection directly affects the transport speed, efficiency, and safety. To a certain degree, the results of the path selection determine success or failure of the war situation. The purpose of this paper is to propose a model based on DEA (data envelopment analysis and multiobjective fuzzy decision-making for path selection. The path decision set is established according to a search algorithm based on overlapping section punishment. Considering the influence of various fuzzy factors, the model of optimal path is constructed based on DEA and multitarget fuzzy decision-making theory, where travel time, transport risk, quick response capability, and transport cost constitute the evaluation target set. A reasonable path set can be calculated and sorted according to the comprehensive scores of the paths. The numerical results show that the model and the related algorithms are effective for path selection of military transport.

  11. A decision analysis framework to support long-term planning for nuclear fuel cycle technology research, development, demonstration and deployment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    To address challenges and gaps in nuclear fuel cycle option assessment and to support research, develop and demonstration programs oriented toward commercial deployment, EPRI (Electric Power Research Institute) is seeking to develop and maintain an independent analysis and assessment capability by building a suite of assessment tools based on a platform of software, simplified relationships, and explicit decision-making and evaluation guidelines. As a demonstration of the decision-support framework, EPRI examines a relatively near-term fuel cycle option, i.e., use of reactor-grade mixed-oxide fuel (MOX) in U.S. light water reactors. The results appear as a list of significant concerns (like cooling of spent fuels, criticality risk...) that have to be taken into account for the final decision

  12. Optimal management of high-risk T1G3 bladder cancer: a decision analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Girish S Kulkarni

    2007-09-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Controversy exists about the most appropriate treatment for high-risk superficial (stage T1; grade G3 bladder cancer. Immediate cystectomy offers the best chance for survival but may be associated with an impaired quality of life compared with conservative therapy. We estimated life expectancy (LE and quality-adjusted life expectancy (QALE for both of these treatments for men and women of different ages and comorbidity levels. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We evaluated two treatment strategies for high-risk, T1G3 bladder cancer using a decision-analytic Markov model: (1 Immediate cystectomy with neobladder creation versus (2 conservative management with intravesical bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG and delayed cystectomy in individuals with resistant or progressive disease. Probabilities and utilities were derived from published literature where available, and otherwise from expert opinion. Extensive sensitivity analyses were conducted to identify variables most likely to influence the decision. Structural sensitivity analyses modifying the base case definition and the triggers for cystectomy in the conservative therapy arm were also explored. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis was used to assess the joint uncertainty of all variables simultaneously and the uncertainty in the base case results. External validation of model outputs was performed by comparing model-predicted survival rates with independent published literature. The mean LE of a 60-y-old male was 14.3 y for immediate cystectomy and 13.6 y with conservative management. With the addition of utilities, the immediate cystectomy strategy yielded a mean QALE of 12.32 y and remained preferred over conservative therapy by 0.35 y. Worsening patient comorbidity diminished the benefit of early cystectomy but altered the LE-based preferred treatment only for patients over age 70 y and the QALE-based preferred treatment for patients over age 65 y. Sensitivity analyses revealed that patients

  13. “Multi-Criteria Analysis of the Design Decisions In Architectural Design Process during the Pre-Design Stage”

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M.Elango

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Design studio in architectural education is a traditional process, based on the methodology related to the aims and objectives of those respective studio curriculum, and the experience and expectation of the faculty members as what they wants the students to learn, and expected to synthesis their knowledge gained from other sources and previous studio experiences. One of the weaknesses of the traditional studio practice is that the design exercises were given so much attention to the compositional aspects of design rather than attempting to study complex and multi-criteria approach for those decisions. To understand the importance of rational decision method over the intuitive decisions, an architectural studio project was explored with the design brief as to develop a morphological variation to create the alternatives as design solutions. All those design alternatives have been evaluated by different stakeholders namely the fellow students, faculty members, and post graduate students who are mainly the architects. The objective of the evaluation is to develop an empirical analysis and evaluation of framework for assessing the Architectural Design to check is there a correlation between the different value judgment for intuitive method of decision making and rational method of decision making, of the pre design alternatives.

  14. Collaborative environmental planning in river management: An application of multicriteria decision analysis in the White River Watershed in Vermont

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hermans, C.; Erickson, J.; Noordewier, T.; Sheldon, A.; Kline, M.

    2007-01-01

    Multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) provides a well-established family of decision tools to aid stakeholder groups in arriving at collective decisions. MCDA can also function as a framework for the social learning process, serving as an educational aid in decision problems characterized by a high level of public participation. In this paper, the framework and results of a structured decision process using the outranking MCDA methodology preference ranking organization method of enrichment evaluation (PROMETHEE) are presented. PROMETHEE is used to frame multi-stakeholder discussions of river management alternatives for the Upper White River of Central Vermont, in the northeastern United States. Stakeholders met over 10 months to create a shared vision of an ideal river and its services to communities, develop a list of criteria by which to evaluate river management alternatives, and elicit preferences to rank and compare individual and group preferences. The MCDA procedure helped to frame a group process that made stakeholder preferences explicit and substantive discussions about long-term river management possible. ?? 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Post-marketing access to orphan drugs: a critical analysis of health technology assessment and reimbursement decision-making considerations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iskrov G

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Georgi Iskrov, Rumen Stefanov Department of Social Medicine and Public Health, Medical University of Plovdiv, Plovdiv, Bulgaria Abstract: This study aims to explore the current rationale of post-marketing access to orphan drugs. As access to orphan medicinal products depends on assessment and appraisal by health authorities, this article is focused on health technology assessment (HTA and reimbursement decision-making considerations for orphan drugs. A critical analysis may identify important factors that could predetermine the combined outcomes of these two processes. Following this objective, an analytical framework was developed, comprising three overlaying issues: to outline what is currently done and what needs to be done in the field of HTA of orphan drugs, to synthesize important variables relevant to the reimbursement decision-making about orphan drugs, and to unveil relationships between theory and practice. Methods for economic evaluation, cost-effectiveness threshold, budget impact, uncertainty of evidence, criteria in reimbursement decision-making, and HTA research agenda are all explored and discussed from an orphan drug perspective. Reimbursement decision-making for orphan drugs is a debate of policy priorities, health system specifics, and societal attitudes. Health authorities need to pursue a multidisciplinary analysis on a range of criteria, ensuring an explicit understanding of the trade-offs for decisions related to eligibility for reimbursement. The only reasonable way to accept a higher valuation of orphan drug benefits is if these are demonstrated empirically. Rarity means that the quality of orphan drug evidence is not the same as for conventional therapies. Closing this gap is another crucial point for the timely access to these products. The generation of evidence goes far beyond pre-market authorization trials and requires transnational cooperation and coordination. Early constructive dialogue among orphan drug

  16. Performance Analysis of Algebraic Soft-Decision Decoding of Reed-Solomon Codes

    OpenAIRE

    Duggan, Andrew; Barg, Alexander

    2007-01-01

    We investigate the decoding region for Algebraic Soft-Decision Decoding (ASD) of Reed-Solomon codes in a discrete, memoryless, additive-noise channel. An expression is derived for the error correction radius within which the soft-decision decoder produces a list that contains the transmitted codeword. The error radius for ASD is shown to be larger than that of Guruswami-Sudan hard-decision decoding for a subset of low-rate codes. These results are also extended to multivariable interpolation ...

  17. The preliminary study of autophagy induction of SA and MeSA by confocal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yun, Lijuan; Chen, Wenli

    2010-02-01

    Autophagy appears to be a highly conserved process from unicellular to multicellular eukaryotes which contributes to the equilibrium of intracelluar environment. While it would be harmful to the cells when it is excessive by inducing programmed cell death (PCD). It is a protein degradation process in which cells recycle cytoplasmic contents when subjected to environmental stress conditions or during certain stages of development. Previous studies have demonstrated autophagy can be induced during abiotic or biotic stresses. salicylic acid (SA) and methyl salicytic (MeSA) are endogenous signal molecules. We found SA and MeSA can induce autophagy in Arabidopsis thaliana respectively. While autophagy was not induced by SA or MeSA in tobacco suspension cells under the same concentration and period. The differences in stuctures or physiological states may contribute to the results.

  18. Nucleation of Ge islands on Si mesas with high-index facets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In this paper, we report on the nucleation and growth behavior of nominally pure Ge islands when the deposition is being done on small pre-structured Si mesas. As these mesas with a lateral dimension ranging from 1 to 10 μm have been prepared using selective epitaxial growth, they exhibit different facets depending on the orientation of the mesa with respect to the Si substrate. As a result, Ge islands preferably nucleate on shallow-index facets as well as on (3 1 1) facets with steep edges. Contrary to this, no islanding has been observed on (9 1 1) facets. The preferential nucleation of the islands is being discussed with respect to the facet properties, i.e. the local step density and the strain anisotropy

  19. 75 FR 76727 - Red Mesa Wind, LLC; Supplemental Notice That Initial Market-Based Rate Filing Includes Request...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-12-09

    ... From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY Federal Energy Regulatory Commission Red Mesa Wind, LLC; Supplemental Notice That Initial Market-Based Rate... notice in the above-referenced proceeding of Red Mesa Wind, LLC's application for market-based...

  20. 75 FR 63488 - Submission for OMB Review; Comment Request; Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) Event...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-15

    ... Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) Event Surveillance SUMMARY: Under the provisions of Section 3507(a)(1)(D... Collection: Title: Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) Event Surveillance. Type of Information..., including the use of appropriate automated, electronic, mechanical, or other technological...