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Sample records for analysis mesa decision

  1. Overview of the Multiscale Epidemiologic/Economic Simulation and Analysis (MESA) Decision Support System

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Speck, D E

    2008-04-28

    The Multiscale Epidemiologic/Economic Simulation and Analysis (MESA) Decision Support System (DSS) is the product of investments that began in FY05 by the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Science and Technology Directorate and continue today with joint funding by both DHS and the US Department of Agriculture (USDA). The DSS consists of a coupled epidemiologic/economic model, a standalone graphical user interface (GUI) that supports both model setup and post-analysis, and a Scenario Bank archive to store all content related to foreign animal disease (FAD) studies. The MESA epi model is an object-oriented, agent-based, stochastic, spatio-temporal simulator that parametrically models FAD outbreaks and response strategies from initial disease introduction to conclusion over local, regional, and national scales. Through its output database, the epi model couples to an economic model that calculates farm-level impacts from animal infections, responsive control strategies and loss of trade. The MESA architecture contains a variety of internal models that implement the major components of the epi simulation, including disease introduction, intra-herd spread, inter-herd spread (direct and indirect), detection, and various control strategies (movement restrictions, culling, vaccination) in a highly configurable and extensible fashion. MESA development was originally focused to support investigations into the economic and agricultural industry impacts associated with Foot-and-Mouth Disease (FMD outbreaks). However, it has been adapted to other FADs such has Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI), Classical Swine Fever (CSF) and Exotic Newcastle Disease (END). The MESA model is highly parameterized and employs an extensible architecture that permits straightforward addition of new component models (e.g., alternative disease spread approaches) when necessary. Since its inception, MESA has been developed with a requirement to enable simulation of the very large scale

  2. Analysis of the electrically forced vibrations of piezoelectric mesa resonators

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    He Hui-Jing; Nie Guo-Quan; Liu Jin-Xi; Yang Jia-Shi

    2013-01-01

    We study the electrically forced thickness-shear and thickness-twist vibrations of stepped thickness piezoelectric plate mesa resonators made of polarized ceramics or 6-mm class crystals.A theoretical analysis based on the theory of piezoelectricity is performed,and an analytical solution is obtained using the trigonometric series.The electrical admittance,resonant frequencies,and mode shapes are calculated,and strong energy trapping of the modes is observed.Their dependence on the geometric parameters of the resonator is also examined.

  3. Marine Ecosystems Analysis (MESA) Program, New York Bight Surficial Sediment Analyses

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Marine Ecosystems Analysis (MESA) Program, New York Bight Study was funded by NOAA and the Bureau of Land Management (BLM). The Atlas was a historical...

  4. Analysis of Well ER-EC-6 Testing, Western Pahute Mesa - Oasis Valley FY 2000 Testing Program

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2002-09-30

    This report documents the analysis of the data collected for Well ER-EC-6 during the Western Pahute Mesa-Oasis Valley (WPM-OV) well development and testing program that was conducted during fiscal year (FY) 2000. The data collection for that program is documented in Appendix A, Western Pahute Mesa-Oasis Valley, Well ER-EC-6 Data Report for Development and Hydraulic Testing.

  5. Analysis of Well ER-EC-8 testing, Western Pahute Mesa-Oasis Valley FY 2000 testing program

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2002-09-30

    This report documents the analysis of the data collected for Well ER-EC-8 during the Western Pahute Mesa - Oasis Valley (WPM-OV) well development and testing program that was conducted during fiscal year (FY) 2000. The data collection for that program is documented in Appendix A, Western Pahute Mesa-Oasis Valley, Well ER-EC-8 Data Report for development and Hydraulic Testing.

  6. Analysis of Well ER-EC-7 Testing, Western Pahute Mesa - Oasis Valley FY 2000 Testing Program

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2002-09-30

    This report documents the analysis of the data collected for Well ER-EC-7 during the Western Pahute Mesa - Oasis Valley (WPM-OV) well development and testing program that was conducted during fiscal year (FY) 2000. The data collection for that program was documented in Appendix A, Western Pahute Mesa - Oasis Valley, Well ER-EC-7 Data Report for Development and Hydraulic Testing.

  7. Analysis of Well ER-EC-2a Testing, Western Pahute Mesa-Oasis Valley FY 2000 Testing Program

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2002-09-30

    This report documents the analysis of the data collected for Well ER-EC-2a during the Western Pahute Mesa - Oasis Valley (WPM-OV) well development and testing program that was conducted during fiscal year (FY) 2000. The data collection for that program is documented in Appendix A, Western Pahute Mesa - Oasis Valley, Well ER-EC-2a Data Report for Development and Hydraulic Testing.

  8. Analysis of Well ER-EC-5 Testing, Western Pahute Mesa-Oasis Valley FY 2000 Testing Program

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2002-09-30

    This report documents the analysis of the data collected for Well ER-EC-5 during the Western Pahute Mesa - Oasis Valley (WPM-OV) well development and testing program that was conducted during fiscal year (FY) 2000. The data collection for that program is documented in Appendix A, Western Pahute Mesa - Oasis Valley, Well ER-EC-5 Data Report for Development and Hydraulic Testing.

  9. Analysis of Well ER-EC-4 Testing, Western Pahute Mesa-Oasis Valley FY 2000 Testing Program

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2002-09-30

    This report documents the analysis of the data collected for Well ER-EC-4 during the Western Pahute Mesa-Oasis Valley (WPM-OV) well development and testing program that was conducted during fiscal year (FY) 2000. The data collection for that program is documented in Appendix A, Western Pahute Mesa - Oasis Valley, Well ER-EC-4 Data Report for Development and Hydraulic Testing.

  10. Mesa redonda

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roberto Lira Olmo

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available En relación al tema central del presente número de la Revista Urbano, la "Identidad Urbana", el Comité Editorial de la misma estimó en su oportunidad de gran interés reunir en una Mesa Redonda a destacados intelectuales, académicos y profesionales que, de una u otra forma, están vinculados por su trabajo, investigación e inquietudes personales con este apasionante tema del cual existen tantas y tan variadas concepciones.

  11. Analysis of tracer responses in the BULLION Forced-Gradient Experiment at Pahute Mesa, Nevada

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Paul W. Reimus; Marc J. Haga

    1999-10-01

    This report presents an analysis of the tracer data from the BULLION forced-gradient experiment (FGE) conducted on Pahute Mesa at the Nevada Test Site from June 2, 1997 through August 28, 1997, for the Underground Test Area (UGTA) Program. It also serves to document the polystyrene microsphere data from the FGE. The FGE involved the injection of solute and colloid tracers into wells ER-20-6 No. 1 and ER-20-6 No. 2 while ER-20-6 No. 3 was pumped at approximately 116 gallons per minute (gpm). The experimental configuration and test design are described briefly in this report; more details are provided elsewhere (IT, 1996, 1997, 1998). The tracer responses in the various wells yielded valuable information about transport processes such as longitudinal dispersion, matrix diffusion and colloid transport in the hydrogeologic system in the vicinity of the BULLION nuclear test cavity. Parameter values describing these processes are derived from the semi-analytical model interpretations presented in this report. A companion report (IT, 1998) presents more detailed numerical modeling interpretations of the solute tracer responses.

  12. Stochastic decision analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lacksonen, Thomas A.

    1994-01-01

    Small space flight project design at NASA Langley Research Center goes through a multi-phase process from preliminary analysis to flight operations. The process insures that each system achieves its technical objectives with demonstrated quality and within planned budgets and schedules. A key technical component of early phases is decision analysis, which is a structure procedure for determining the best of a number of feasible concepts based upon project objectives. Feasible system concepts are generated by the designers and analyzed for schedule, cost, risk, and technical measures. Each performance measure value is normalized between the best and worst values and a weighted average score of all measures is calculated for each concept. The concept(s) with the highest scores are retained, while others are eliminated from further analysis. This project automated and enhanced the decision analysis process. Automation of the decision analysis process was done by creating a user-friendly, menu-driven, spreadsheet macro based decision analysis software program. The program contains data entry dialog boxes, automated data and output report generation, and automated output chart generation. The enhancements to the decision analysis process permit stochastic data entry and analysis. Rather than enter single measure values, the designers enter the range and most likely value for each measure and concept. The data can be entered at the system or subsystem level. System level data can be calculated as either sum, maximum, or product functions of the subsystem data. For each concept, the probability distributions are approximated for each measure and the total score for each concept as either constant, triangular, normal, or log-normal distributions. Based on these distributions, formulas are derived for the probability that the concept meets any given constraint, the probability that the concept meets all constraints, and the probability that the concept is within a given

  13. Decision Analysis Technique

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hammad Dabo Baba

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available One of the most significant step in building structure maintenance decision is the physical inspection of the facility to be maintained. The physical inspection involved cursory assessment of the structure and ratings of the identified defects based on expert evaluation. The objective of this paper is to describe present a novel approach to prioritizing the criticality of physical defects in a residential building system using multi criteria decision analysis approach. A residential building constructed in 1985 was considered in this study. Four criteria which includes; Physical Condition of the building system (PC, Effect on Asset (EA, effect on Occupants (EO and Maintenance Cost (MC are considered in the inspection. The building was divided in to nine systems regarded as alternatives. Expert's choice software was used in comparing the importance of the criteria against the main objective, whereas structured Proforma was used in quantifying the defects observed on all building systems against each criteria. The defects severity score of each building system was identified and later multiplied by the weight of the criteria and final hierarchy was derived. The final ranking indicates that, electrical system was considered the most critical system with a risk value of 0.134 while ceiling system scored the lowest risk value of 0.066. The technique is often used in prioritizing mechanical equipment for maintenance planning. However, result of this study indicates that the technique could be used in prioritizing building systems for maintenance planning

  14. Evolutionary Analysis of Gaseous Sub-Neptune-Mass Planets with MESA

    CERN Document Server

    Chen, Howard

    2016-01-01

    Sub-Neptune-sized exoplanets represent one of the most common types of planets in the Milky Way, yet many of their properties are unknown. Here, we present a prescription to adapt the capabilities of the stellar evolution toolkit Modules for Experiments in Stellar Astrophysics (MESA) to model sub-Neptune mass planets with H/He envelopes. With the addition of routines treating the planet core luminosity, heavy element enrichment, atmospheric boundary condition, and mass loss due to hydrodynamic winds, the evolutionary pathways of planets with diverse starting conditions are more accurately constrained. Using these dynamical models, we construct mass-composition relationships of planets from 1 to 400 $M_{\\oplus}$ and investigate how mass-loss impacts their composition and evolution history. We demonstrate that planet radii are typically insensitive to the evolution pathway that brought the planet to its instantaneous mass, composition and age, with variations from hysteresis. We find that planet envelope mass l...

  15. Summary of micrographic analysis of fracture coating phases on drill cores from Pahute Mesa, Nevada Test Site. Revision 1

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1998-12-01

    The flow path between Pahute Mesa and the groundwater discharge area in Oasis Valley (approximately 18 miles to the southwest) is of concern due to the relatively short travel distance between a recharge area where underground nuclear testing has been conducted and the off-site water users. Groundwater flow and transport modeling by IT Corporation (IT) has shown rapid tritium transport in the volcanic rock aquifers along this flow path. The resultant estimates of rapid transport were based on water level data, limited hydraulic conductivity data, estimates of groundwater discharge rates in Oasis Valley, assumed porosities, and estimated retardation rates. Many of these parameters are poorly constrained and may vary considerably. Sampling and analytical techniques are being applied as an independent means to determine transport rates by providing an understanding of the geochemical processes that control solute movement along the flow path. As part of these geochemical investigations, this report summarizes the analysis of fracture coating mineral phases from drill core samples from the Pahute mesa area of the Nevada Test Site (NTS). Archived samples were collected based on the presence of natural fractures and on the types and abundance of secondary mineral phases present on those fracture surfaces. Mineral phases present along fracture surfaces are significant because, through the process of water-rock interaction, they can either contribute (as a result of dissolution) or remove (as a result of precipitation or adsorption) constituents from solution. Particular attention was paid to secondary calcite occurrences because they represent a potential source of exchangeable carbon and can interact with groundwater resulting in a modified isotopic signature and apparent water age.

  16. Mesa Verde Archaeoastronomy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Munson, Gregory E.

    Mesa Verde archaeoastronomy has been studied for over 100 years through academic research. Investigators have excavated, stabilized, and documented the major dwellings in Mesa Verde National Park. Evidence for astronomical orientation and alignment was found in Cliff Palace and Sun Temple. The level of documentation increased with each new research project. With good documentation practices, together, the research has shown that the cultures of the Mesa Verde were advanced in their social organization and use of astronomy. Consultation with Native American tribal leaders will add significant background to the depth of knowledge that their ancestors possessed.

  17. Hydraulic characterization of volcanic rocks in Pahute Mesa using an integrated analysis of 16 multiple-well aquifer tests, Nevada National Security Site, 2009–14

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia, C. Amanda; Jackson, Tracie R.; Halford, Keith J.; Sweetkind, Donald S.; Damar, Nancy A.; Fenelon, Joseph M.; Reiner, Steven R.

    2017-01-20

    An improved understanding of groundwater flow and radionuclide migration downgradient from underground nuclear-testing areas at Pahute Mesa, Nevada National Security Site, requires accurate subsurface hydraulic characterization. To improve conceptual models of flow and transport in the complex hydrogeologic system beneath Pahute Mesa, the U.S. Geological Survey characterized bulk hydraulic properties of volcanic rocks using an integrated analysis of 16 multiple-well aquifer tests. Single-well aquifer-test analyses provided transmissivity estimates at pumped wells. Transmissivity estimates ranged from less than 1 to about 100,000 square feet per day in Pahute Mesa and the vicinity. Drawdown from multiple-well aquifer testing was estimated and distinguished from natural fluctuations in more than 200 pumping and observation wells using analytical water-level models. Drawdown was detected at distances greater than 3 miles from pumping wells and propagated across hydrostratigraphic units and major structures, indicating that neither faults nor structural blocks noticeably impede or divert groundwater flow in the study area.Consistent hydraulic properties were estimated by simultaneously interpreting drawdown from the 16 multiple-well aquifer tests with an integrated groundwater-flow model composed of 11 well-site models—1 for each aquifer test site. Hydraulic properties were distributed across volcanic rocks with the Phase II Pahute Mesa-Oasis Valley Hydrostratigraphic Framework Model. Estimated hydraulic-conductivity distributions spanned more than two orders of magnitude in hydrostratigraphic units. Overlapping hydraulic conductivity ranges among units indicated that most Phase II Hydrostratigraphic Framework Model units were not hydraulically distinct. Simulated total transmissivity ranged from 1,600 to 68,000 square feet per day for all pumping wells analyzed. High-transmissivity zones exceeding 10,000 square feet per day exist near caldera margins and extend

  18. Life and Death Decision Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1979-12-01

    LIFE SMOKING: CANCER, EMPHYSEMA, SHORTENED LIFE BATHING: FALLING, ELECTROCUTION CONTRACEPTION: DEATH , ILLNESS PREGNANCY: DEATH , ILLNESS ABORTION ...economic effect is the one with the highest probability of causing my death . -13- EXPECTED NET SYSTEM DESIGN BENEFIT TO ME DEATH DEATH (r A(excluding death ...0-AO81 424 STANFORD UNIV CALIF DEPT OF ENGtNEERING-ECONOM!C SYSTEMS F/6 12/1 LIFE ANDI DEATH DECISION ANALYSIS.CU) DEC 79 R A HOWARD N0OOIN-79-C-0036

  19. TYBO/BENHAM: Model Analysis of Groundwater Flow and Radionuclide Migration from Underground Nuclear Tests in Southwestern Pahute Mesa, Nevada

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Andrew Wolfsberg; Lee Glascoe; Guoping Lu; Alyssa Olson; Peter Lichtner; Maureen McGraw; Terry Cherry; Guy Roemer

    2002-09-01

    Recent field studies have led to the discovery of trace quantities of plutonium originating from the BENHAM underground nuclear test in two groundwater observation wells on Pahute Mesa at the Nevada Test Site. These observation wells are located 1.3 km from the BENHAM underground nuclear test and approximately 300 m from the TYBO underground nuclear test. In addition to plutonium, several other conservative (e.g. tritium) and reactive (e.g. cesium) radionuclides were found in both observation wells. The highest radionuclide concentrations were found in a well sampling a welded tuff aquifer more than 500m above the BENHAM emplacement depth. These measurements have prompted additional investigations to ascertain the mechanisms, processes, and conditions affecting subsurface radionuclide transport in Pahute Mesa groundwater. This report describes an integrated modeling approach used to simulate groundwater flow, radionuclide source release, and radionuclide transport near the BENHAM and TYBO underground nuclear tests on Pahute Mesa. The components of the model include a flow model at a scale large enough to encompass many wells for calibration, a source-term model capable of predicting radionuclide releases to aquifers following complex processes associated with nonisothermal flow and glass dissolution, and site-scale transport models that consider migration of solutes and colloids in fractured volcanic rock. Although multiple modeling components contribute to the methodology presented in this report, they are coupled and yield results consistent with laboratory and field observations. Additionally, sensitivity analyses are conducted to provide insight into the relative importance of uncertainty ranges in the transport parameters.

  20. DECISION ANALYSIS IN HEALTH COVERAGE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gloria Beatriz, Orzuza

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available In 2000 the Organization of the United Nations established eight Millennium Development Goals (MDGs. The fourth objective, reducing child mortality, looks specifically for reducing two thirds of the mortality of children under five years old between 1990 and 2015. One of the specific indicators to measure progress towards this goal is the proportion of children under one year old immunized against measles.In 2001, the United Nations Development Program (UNDP estimated that over 60% of the population who lived in developing nations is far away or losing ground on achievement of the MDGs in reducing rates of infant mortality. This situation is compounded by the lack of progress in deepening the analysis of the issue, the lack of research and indicators to assess features timely coverage of care and health services.This article aims to contribute to the selection of the strategy which would improve health coverage in Misiones, using one of the tools of decision theory, the decision matrix.

  1. Quality assurance and analysis of water levels in wells on Pahute Mesa and vicinity, Nevada Test Site, Nye County, Nevada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fenelon, Joseph M.

    2000-01-01

    Periodic and continual water-level data from 1963 to 1998 were compiled and quality assured for 65 observation wells on Pahute Mesa and vicinity, Nye County, Nevada. As part of the quality assurance of all water levels, ancillary data pertinent to computing hydraulic heads in wells were compiled and analyzed. Quality-assured water levels that were not necessarily in error but which did not represent static heads in the regional aquifer system, or required some other qualification, were flagged. Water levels flagged include those recovering from recent pumping or well construction, water levels affected by nuclear tests, and measurements affected by borehole deviations. A cursory examination of about 30 wells with available water-level and down-hole temperature data indicate that water levels in most wells on Pahute Mesa would not be significantly affected by temperature if corrected to 95 degrees Fahrenheit. Wells with large corrections (greater than 10 feet) are those with long water columns (greater than 1,500 feet of water above the assumed point of inflow) in combination with mean water-column temperatures exceeding 105 degrees Fahrenheit. Water-level fluctuations in wells on Pahute Mesa are caused by several factors including infiltration of precipitation, barometric pressure, Earth tides, ground-water pumpage, and seismic events caused by tectonic activity and underground nuclear testing. No observed water-level fluctuations were attributed to a naturally occurring earthquake. The magnitude and duration of changes in water levels caused by nuclear tests are affected by the test size and the distance from a well to the test. Identifying water levels that might be affected by past nuclear tests is difficult because pre-testing water-level data are sparse. Hydrologically significant trends were found in 13 of 25 wells with multiple years of water-level record. The largest change in water levels (1,029 feet in 25 years) occurred in well U-19v PS 1D as a result of

  2. Decision strategy research: system analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carle, B

    2000-07-01

    The objective of SCK-CEN's R and D programme on decision strategies is (1) to develop theories, methods and software tools which help decision makers shape, analyse and understand their decisions; (2) to study group processes in decision making; (3) to apply theories, methods and tools in a context related to nuclear emergency preparedness and more generally to support in a context dealing with ionising radiation; (4) to increase SCK-CEN's knowledge on general emergency preparedness and to introduce SCK-CEN staff to computer supported decision techniques. Ongoing R and D has two components: (1) the study of the use of information and knowledge transfer in group decision processes, and more specific studying important factors when computers are used as information source and communication tool; and (2) the study of preference modelling individually and during group decision processes. Principal achievements in 1999 are described.

  3. Probabilistic Analysis in Management Decision Making

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Delmar, M. V.; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    1992-01-01

    The target group in this paper is people concerned with mathematical economic decision theory. It is shown how the numerically effective First Order Reliability Methods (FORM) can be used in rational management decision making, where some parameters in the applied decision basis are uncertainty...... quantities. The uncertainties are taken into account consistently and the decision analysis is based on the general decision theory in combination with reliability and optimization theory. Examples are shown where the described technique is used and some general conclusion are stated....

  4. Advancing Alternative Analysis: Integration of Decision Science

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Malloy, Timothy F; Zaunbrecher, Virginia M; Batteate, Christina;

    2016-01-01

    Decision analysis-a systematic approach to solving complex problems-offers tools and frameworks to support decision making that are increasingly being applied to environmental challenges. Alternatives analysis is a method used in regulation and product design to identify, compare, and evaluate th...

  5. Understanding The Decision Context: DPSIR, Decision Landscape, And Social Network Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Establishing the decision context for a management problem is the critical first step for effective decision analysis. Understanding the decision context allow stakeholders and decision-makers to integrate the societal, environmental, and economic considerations that must be con...

  6. Calidad de las aceitunas de mesa.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Garrido Fernández, Antonio

    1999-06-01

    Full Text Available The paper comments the different regulations related to table olives at national or international scales. The Unified Qualitative standard Applying to Table Olives in International Trade and COI/Codex (International Olive Oil Council, IOC, and IOC/Codex Alimentarius, «Reglamentación Técnico Sanitaria para la elaboración, circulación y venta de aceitunas de mesa» (Spanish, «Normas de calidad para la exportación de aceitunas de mesa» (Spanish, and the United States Standards for Grades of Green and Canned Ripe Olives (USA are especially considered. The effects of the new regulations on Nutritional Labelling (mainly in USA, applications of the Analysis and Control of Critical Points (ACCP, and the problems derived from the application of the ISO 9000, or EN 29000, to this Sector are also discussed.

    El trabajo comenta las diferentes normas, tanto nacionales como internacionales, que regulan los aspectos de la calidad de las aceitunas de mesa. Se comentan especialmente la Norma Cualitativa Unificada Aplicable a Aceitunas de Mesa en el Comercio Internacional y las correspondientes COI/CODEX (Consejo Oleícola Internacional, COI, y COI/Codex Alimentarius, respectivamente, la Reglamentación Técnico Sanitaria para la elaboración, circulación, y venta de aceitunas de mesa (española, las Normas de calidad para la exportación de Aceitunas de Mesa (española, y las «United States Standards for Grades of Green and Canned Ripe Olives» (USA. Asimismo se analizan las implicaciones de las nuevas reglamentaciones sobre etiquetado nutricional (principalmente en el comercio con USA, la aplicación del Análisis de Riesgos y Control de Puntos Críticos (ARCPC, y la necesidad de adaptar el Sector al cumplimiento de las diversas normas de la serie ISO 9000 o su equivalente EN 29000.

  7. Is the Mesa Central of Mexico a biogeographical province? Descriptive analysis based on freshwater biotic components ¿La mesa central de México es una provincia biogeográfica? Análisis descriptivo basado en componentes bióticos dulceacuícolas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Omar Domínguez-Domínguez

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available This essay presents an analysis of the concept of Mesa Central of México as a potential biogeographical province. This region of México has been used as a reference for describing species richness and distribution patterns of the freshwater fish fauna. However, it has not been recognized as a biogeographical province in the available schemes which are mostly based on the composition of terrestrial biota. Here, we provide a historical sketch of the way the concept of Mesa Central arose in the literature as a physiographic province, and we provide a comparison with respect to the regionalization schemes of the Mexican territory, which are based on attributes such physiography, elevation, hydrology, geology and biogeography. We conclude that the Mesa Central, even though it represents a practical concept for establishing the distribution pattern of the fish fauna, in the way it was described originally cannot be circumscribed to any of the regions or provinces in which Mexico has been divided. We also argue that this geographical region cannot be considered as a synonym of the Transmexican Volcanic Axis biogeographical province, and also that it is possible that the fact that this area is not circumscribed to any regionalization scheme is due to the fact that freshwater elements have not been considered in the establishment of such biogeographical regions. We end by pointing out the need for a biogeographical analysis that integrates most of the freshwater elements in order to determine whether both the aquatic and terrestrial flora and fauna are driven by the same geobiotic processes.En este ensayo se presenta un análisis del concepto de Mesa Central de México como una posible provincia biogeográfica. Esta región del país ha sido utilizada como referencia para describir la riqueza y distribución de una parte importante de la fauna ictiológica dulceacuícola, sin embargo, no es reconocida como provincia biogeográfica en ninguno de los

  8. How decision analysis can further nanoinformatics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthew E. Bates

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available The increase in nanomaterial research has resulted in increased nanomaterial data. The next challenge is to meaningfully integrate and interpret these data for better and more efficient decisions. Due to the complex nature of nanomaterials, rapid changes in technology, and disunified testing and data publishing strategies, information regarding material properties is often illusive, uncertain, and/or of varying quality, which limits the ability of researchers and regulatory agencies to process and use the data. The vision of nanoinformatics is to address this problem by identifying the information necessary to support specific decisions (a top-down approach and collecting and visualizing these relevant data (a bottom-up approach. Current nanoinformatics efforts, however, have yet to efficiently focus data acquisition efforts on the research most relevant for bridging specific nanomaterial data gaps. Collecting unnecessary data and visualizing irrelevant information are expensive activities that overwhelm decision makers. We propose that the decision analytic techniques of multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA, value of information (VOI, weight of evidence (WOE, and portfolio decision analysis (PDA can bridge the gap from current data collection and visualization efforts to present information relevant to specific decision needs. Decision analytic and Bayesian models could be a natural extension of mechanistic and statistical models for nanoinformatics practitioners to master in solving complex nanotechnology challenges.

  9. Software Development for Decision Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    1975-03-01

    34|"𔃻" ’’ " ’■|’■’ J - " ■»—w—"■ ■ 1 »I ■■ »I mill 1 11 1 MI independence (Category 1) or partial Independence (Categories 2 and 3) can >>e...place vandom variable 1 after decision 3 in the tree. In the nuit phase of our research, we hope to develop general algorithms for translating any...nMiu uiiim^p^M (^PLANT EFFICIENCY^ \\~r\\ |1T) % (CAPITAL COSTS Tris ^ /KW (OPERATING COSTS^) r=TTl MILLS /KWH (jmc^lTIQn-j] MILLS /KWH.*’** By

  10. Foundations of Decision Analysis: Along the Way

    OpenAIRE

    Peter C. Fishburn

    1989-01-01

    This paper offers a personal perspective on the development of decision theory and related subjects during the past half century. It first reviews six milestones in the foundations of decision analysis that are associated with Frank P. Ramsey, John von Neumann and Oskar Morgenstern, Leonard J. Savage, Maurice Allais and Ward Edwards, West Churchman and Russell Ackoff, and Kenneth Arrow. It then gives a personal account of further developments over the past 30 years in linear utility theory, s...

  11. Decision analysis applications and the CERCLA process

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Purucker, S.T.; Lyon, B.F. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States). Risk Analysis Section]|[Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States)

    1994-06-01

    Quantitative decision methods can be developed during environmental restoration projects that incorporate stakeholder input and can complement current efforts that are undertaken for data collection and alternatives evaluation during the CERCLA process. These decision-making tools can supplement current EPA guidance as well as focus on problems that arise as attempts are made to make informed decisions regarding remedial alternative selection. In examining the use of such applications, the authors discuss the use of decision analysis tools and their impact on collecting data and making environmental decisions from a risk-based perspective. They will look at the construction of objective functions for quantifying different risk-based perspective. They will look at the construction of objective functions for quantifying different risk-based decision rules that incorporate stakeholder concerns. This represents a quantitative method for implementing the Data Quality Objective (DQO) process. These objective functions can be expressed using a variety of indices to analyze problems that currently arise in the environmental field. Examples include cost, magnitude of risk, efficiency, and probability of success or failure. Based on such defined objective functions, a project can evaluate the impact of different risk and decision selection strategies on data worth and alternative selection.

  12. Decision variables analysis for structured modeling

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    潘启树; 赫东波; 张洁; 胡运权

    2002-01-01

    Structured modeling is the most commonly used modeling method, but it is not quite addaptive to significant changes in environmental conditions. Therefore, Decision Variables Analysis(DVA), a new modelling method is proposed to deal with linear programming modeling and changing environments. In variant linear programming , the most complicated relationships are those among decision variables. DVA classifies the decision variables into different levels using different index sets, and divides a model into different elements so that any change can only have its effect on part of the whole model. DVA takes into consideration the complicated relationships among decision variables at different levels, and can therefore sucessfully solve any modeling problem in dramatically changing environments.

  13. Financial Analysis, Budgeting, Decision and Control

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mariana Rodica TIRLEA

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The economic processes taking place in the economic environment are stochastic processes that involve and imply risks, arising from product diversification, competition, financial derivatives transactions: swaps, futures, options and from the large number of actors involved in the stock market with a higher or a smaller uncertainty degree. Competition and competitiveness, led to major and rapid change in the business environment, they determined actors participating in the economy to find solutions and methods of collecting and processing data, in such a way that, after being transformed into information they quickly help based on their analysis in decision making, planning and financial forecasting, having an effect on increasing their economic efficiency. In these circumstances the financial analysis, decision, forecasting and control, should be based on quality information that should be a value creation source. The active nature of the financial function implies the existence of a substantially large share of financial analysis, financial decision, forecasting and control.

  14. Multicriteria decision aid/analysis in finance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J. Spronk (Jaap); R.E. Steuer; C. Zopounidis

    2005-01-01

    textabstractMULTIPLE CRITERIA DECISION ANALYSIS: State of the Art Surveys is the most comprehensive work available to survey the state of the art in MCDA to date. Its 25 chapters are organized in eight parts and are written by 52 international leading experts. Each of these parts covers one of the c

  15. MESA - A new approach to low cost scientific spacecraft

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keyes, G. W.; Case, C. M.

    1982-09-01

    Today, the greatest obstacle to science and exploration in space is its cost. The present investigation is concerned with approaches for reducing this cost. Trends in the scientific spacecraft market are examined, and a description is presented for the MESA space platform concept. The cost drivers are considered, taking into account planning, technical aspects, and business factors. It is pointed out that the primary function of the MESA concept is to provide a satellite system at the lowest possible price. In order to reach this goal an attempt is made to benefit from all of the considered cost drivers. It is to be tried to work with the customer early in the mission analysis stage in order to assist in finding the right compromise between mission cost and return. A three phase contractual arrangement is recommended for MESA platforms. The phases are related to mission feasibility, specification definition, and design and development. Modular kit design promotes flexibility at low cost.

  16. Teaching the Tools of Pharmaceutical Care Decision-Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rittenhouse, Brian E.

    1994-01-01

    A method of decision-analysis in pharmaceutical care that integrates epidemiology and economics is presented, including an example illustrating both the deceptive nature of medical decision making and the power of decision analysis. Principles in determining both general and specific probabilities of interest and use of decision trees for…

  17. Decision Analysis Tools for Volcano Observatories

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hincks, T. H.; Aspinall, W.; Woo, G.

    2005-12-01

    Staff at volcano observatories are predominantly engaged in scientific activities related to volcano monitoring and instrumentation, data acquisition and analysis. Accordingly, the academic education and professional training of observatory staff tend to focus on these scientific functions. From time to time, however, staff may be called upon to provide decision support to government officials responsible for civil protection. Recognizing that Earth scientists may have limited technical familiarity with formal decision analysis methods, specialist software tools that assist decision support in a crisis should be welcome. A review is given of two software tools that have been under development recently. The first is for probabilistic risk assessment of human and economic loss from volcanic eruptions, and is of practical use in short and medium-term risk-informed planning of exclusion zones, post-disaster response, etc. A multiple branch event-tree architecture for the software, together with a formalism for ascribing probabilities to branches, have been developed within the context of the European Community EXPLORIS project. The second software tool utilizes the principles of the Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) for evidence-based assessment of volcanic state and probabilistic threat evaluation. This is of practical application in short-term volcano hazard forecasting and real-time crisis management, including the difficult challenge of deciding when an eruption is over. An open-source BBN library is the software foundation for this tool, which is capable of combining synoptically different strands of observational data from diverse monitoring sources. A conceptual vision is presented of the practical deployment of these decision analysis tools in a future volcano observatory environment. Summary retrospective analyses are given of previous volcanic crises to illustrate the hazard and risk insights gained from use of these tools.

  18. A Galerkin, finite-element analysis of steady-state flow and heat transport in the shallow hydrothermal system in the East Mesa area, Imperial Valley, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, R.E.

    1977-01-01

    A steady-state simulation model was applied to the shallow hydrothermal system in the East Mesa area of Imperial Valley, Calif. The steady-state equations of flow and heat transport were solved by use of a Galerkin, finite-element method. A solution was obtained by iterating between the temperature and pressure equations, using updated densities and viscosities. Temperature and pressure were obtained for each node, and corresponding head values were calculated. The simulated temperature and pressure patterns correlated well with the observed patterns. Additional data, mainly from test drilling, would be required for construction of a similar model of the deep hydrothermal system.

  19. Geothermal resource and reservoir investigations of U. S. Bureau of Reclamation leaseholds at East Mesa, Imperial Valley, California

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Howard, J.; Apps, J.A.; Benson, S.

    1978-10-01

    The study included five parts: geology, seismicity, well testing, reservoir simulation, and geochemistry. Included in appendices are: production test data and discussion, interference tests, production tests in the northern portion of the East Mesa KGRA, conversion tables, chemical analysis of fluids from East Mesa wells, and results of laboratory studies of scale samples taken from the vertical tube evaporator. (MHR)

  20. Variable precision rough set for multiple decision attribute analysis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Lai; Kin; Keung

    2008-01-01

    A variable precision rough set (VPRS) model is used to solve the multi-attribute decision analysis (MADA) problem with multiple conflicting decision attributes and multiple condition attributes. By introducing confidence measures and a β-reduct, the VPRS model can rationally solve the conflicting decision analysis problem with multiple decision attributes and multiple condition attributes. For illustration, a medical diagnosis example is utilized to show the feasibility of the VPRS model in solving the MADA...

  1. Application of portfolio theory in decision tree analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galligan, D T; Ramberg, C; Curtis, C; Ferguson, J; Fetrow, J

    1991-07-01

    A general application of portfolio analysis for herd decision tree analysis is described. In the herd environment, this methodology offers a means of employing population-based decision strategies that can help the producer control economic variation in expected return from a given set of decision options. An economic decision tree model regarding the use of prostaglandin in dairy cows with undetected estrus was used to determine the expected return of the decisions to use prostaglandin and breed on a timed basis, use prostaglandin and then breed on sign of estrus, or breed on signs of estrus. The risk attributes of these decision alternatives were calculated from the decision tree, and portfolio theory was used to find the efficient decision combinations (portfolios with the highest return for a given variance). The resulting combinations of decisions could be used to control return variation.

  2. Sediment Analysis Network for Decision Support (SANDS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hardin, D. M.; Keiser, K.; Graves, S. J.; Conover, H.; Ebersole, S.

    2009-12-01

    Since the year 2000, Eastern Louisiana, coastal Mississippi, Alabama, and the western Florida panhandle have been affected by 28 tropical storms, seven of which were hurricanes. These tropical cyclones have significantly altered normal coastal processes and characteristics in the Gulf region through sediment disturbance. Although tides, seasonality, and agricultural development influence suspended sediment and sediment deposition over periods of time, tropical storm activity has the capability of moving the largest sediment loads in the shortest periods of time for coastal areas. The importance of sediments upon water quality, coastal erosion, habitats and nutrients has made their study and monitoring vital to decision makers in the region. Currently agencies such as United States Army Corps of Engineers (USACE), NASA, and Geological Survey of Alabama (GSA) are employing a variety of in-situ and airborne based measurements to assess and monitor sediment loading and deposition. These methods provide highly accurate information but are limited in geographic range, are not continuous over a region and, in the case of airborne LIDAR are expensive and do not recur on a regular basis. Multi-temporal and multi-spectral satellite imagery that shows tropical-storm-induced suspended sediment and storm-surge sediment deposits can provide decision makers with immediate and long-term information about the impacts of tropical storms and hurricanes. It can also be valuable for those conducting research and for projects related to coastal issues such as recovery, planning, management, and mitigation. The recently awarded Sediment Analysis Network for Decision Support will generate decision support products using NASA satellite observations from MODIS, Landsat and SeaWiFS instruments to support resource management, planning, and decision making activities in the Gulf of Mexico. Specifically, SANDS will generate decision support products that address the impacts of tropical storms

  3. Cloud Service Selection Using Multicriteria Decision Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Md Whaiduzzaman

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Cloud computing (CC has recently been receiving tremendous attention from the IT industry and academic researchers. CC leverages its unique services to cloud customers in a pay-as-you-go, anytime, anywhere manner. Cloud services provide dynamically scalable services through the Internet on demand. Therefore, service provisioning plays a key role in CC. The cloud customer must be able to select appropriate services according to his or her needs. Several approaches have been proposed to solve the service selection problem, including multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA. MCDA enables the user to choose from among a number of available choices. In this paper, we analyze the application of MCDA to service selection in CC. We identify and synthesize several MCDA techniques and provide a comprehensive analysis of this technology for general readers. In addition, we present a taxonomy derived from a survey of the current literature. Finally, we highlight several state-of-the-art practical aspects of MCDA implementation in cloud computing service selection. The contributions of this study are four-fold: (a focusing on the state-of-the-art MCDA techniques, (b highlighting the comparative analysis and suitability of several MCDA methods, (c presenting a taxonomy through extensive literature review, and (d analyzing and summarizing the cloud computing service selections in different scenarios.

  4. Sequential decision analysis for nonstationary stochastic processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaefer, B.

    1974-01-01

    A formulation of the problem of making decisions concerning the state of nonstationary stochastic processes is given. An optimal decision rule, for the case in which the stochastic process is independent of the decisions made, is derived. It is shown that this rule is a generalization of the Bayesian likelihood ratio test; and an analog to Wald's sequential likelihood ratio test is given, in which the optimal thresholds may vary with time.

  5. Decision forests for computer vision and medical image analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Criminisi, A

    2013-01-01

    This practical and easy-to-follow text explores the theoretical underpinnings of decision forests, organizing the vast existing literature on the field within a new, general-purpose forest model. Topics and features: with a foreword by Prof. Y. Amit and Prof. D. Geman, recounting their participation in the development of decision forests; introduces a flexible decision forest model, capable of addressing a large and diverse set of image and video analysis tasks; investigates both the theoretical foundations and the practical implementation of decision forests; discusses the use of decision for

  6. Geology of the Calamity Mesa quadrangle, Mesa county, Colorado

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cater, Fred W.; Stager, Harold K.

    1953-01-01

    The Calamity Mesa quadrangle is one of eighteen 7 1/2-minute quadrangles covering the principal carnotite-producing area of southwestern Colorado. The geology of these quadrangles was mapped by the U.S. Geological Survey for the Atomic Energy Commission as part of a comprehensive study of carnotite deposits. The rocks exposed in the eighteen quadrangles consist of crystalline rocks of pre-Cambrian age and sedimentary rocks the range in age from late Paleozoic to Quaternary. Over much of the area the sedimentary rocks are flat lying, but in places the rocks are disrupted by high-angle faults, and northwest-trending folds. Conspicuous among the folds are large anticlines having cores of intrusive salt and gypsum. Most of the carnotite deposits are confined to the Salt Wash sandstone member of the Jurassic Morrison formation. Within this sandstone, most of the deposits are spottily distributed through an arcuate zone known as the "Uravan Mineral Belt". Individual deposits range in size from irregular masses containing only a few tons of ore to large tabular masses containing many thousands of tons. The ore consists largely of sandstone selectively impregnated and in part replaced by uranium and vanadium minerals. Most of the deposits appear to be related to certain sedimentary structures in sandstones of favorable composition.

  7. Thromboprophylaxis after cesarean section: decision analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blondon, Marc

    2011-02-01

    Although venous thromboembolism (VTE) is the leading cause of maternal mortality in developed countries, the usefulness of preventive low-molecular weight heparin (LMWH) after cesarean section remains a matter of controversy. This article will review a recent decision analysis addressing this question, comparing a 7-day LMWH with none in this setting. Prophylaxis with LMWH yielded the highest quality-adjusted life expectancy, with a net gain of 1.5 days per treated patient. Sensitivity analyses showed the incidence of VTE after cesarean section and the haemorrhagic risk related to LMWH to be critical, at threshold values of 0.22% and 0.24% respectively. In the hypothetical cases created by the authors, LMWH was safe but only marginally more effective in women with no risk factors. With the addition of other risk factors, reductions in VTE greatly outnumbered the increase in major hemorrhages. This study highlights the need to assess the individual thrombotic risk in women after a cesarean section.

  8. A Speech Act Analysis of Judicial Decisions

    OpenAIRE

    BERNAL, Carlos L.

    2007-01-01

    According to the theory of speech acts, speech is a kind of action. He, who says something, does something. Certainly, when a judge or a court makes a decision, he or it says something. He performs some (locutionary) acts like uttering or writing some sentences. However, there is something further he does, namely, by uttering or writing some sentences in the appropriate context, he makes a judicial decision. In a judicial decision the judge says something about the law, the facts of the case,...

  9. A regret theory approach to decision curve analysis: A novel method for eliciting decision makers' preferences and decision-making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vickers Andrew

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Decision curve analysis (DCA has been proposed as an alternative method for evaluation of diagnostic tests, prediction models, and molecular markers. However, DCA is based on expected utility theory, which has been routinely violated by decision makers. Decision-making is governed by intuition (system 1, and analytical, deliberative process (system 2, thus, rational decision-making should reflect both formal principles of rationality and intuition about good decisions. We use the cognitive emotion of regret to serve as a link between systems 1 and 2 and to reformulate DCA. Methods First, we analysed a classic decision tree describing three decision alternatives: treat, do not treat, and treat or no treat based on a predictive model. We then computed the expected regret for each of these alternatives as the difference between the utility of the action taken and the utility of the action that, in retrospect, should have been taken. For any pair of strategies, we measure the difference in net expected regret. Finally, we employ the concept of acceptable regret to identify the circumstances under which a potentially wrong strategy is tolerable to a decision-maker. Results We developed a novel dual visual analog scale to describe the relationship between regret associated with "omissions" (e.g. failure to treat vs. "commissions" (e.g. treating unnecessary and decision maker's preferences as expressed in terms of threshold probability. We then proved that the Net Expected Regret Difference, first presented in this paper, is equivalent to net benefits as described in the original DCA. Based on the concept of acceptable regret we identified the circumstances under which a decision maker tolerates a potentially wrong decision and expressed it in terms of probability of disease. Conclusions We present a novel method for eliciting decision maker's preferences and an alternative derivation of DCA based on regret theory. Our approach may

  10. Establishing RDCS in CO MESA: Egyptian exporters' perspectives

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Islam El-Nakib

    2008-03-01

    Full Text Available The role of supply chains has been significant in strengtheningthe competitiveness of interna tiona[ trade among countries.Regional Distribution Centres (RDCs are among the remarkabledrivers of any international trade supply chains. The Egyptianexports face severe competition in the international marketwhich has led the Egyptian government to join regional tradeblocks such as the Common Market for Eastern and SouthernAfrica (COMESA for the aim of establishing export channelsto new markets. Therefore, applying the concept of RDCs wasexamined to enhance the performance of Egyptian exportswhich are facing high competition in the EU, US, and Asianmarkets. Thus, the purpose of this research is to study the associatedaspects to this area of interest based on a survey whichhas targeted the Egyptian exporters who are directly dealingwith the CO MESA to cover several issues regarding the tradebetween Egypt and CO MESA. Moreover, this survey has alsoincluded the analysis of the reasons that make the CO MESAprefer other international products rather than the Egyptianproducts, and the attitudes towards the proposed selection ofEgypt's RDCs in COMESA. In addition, this survey is alsoidentifying the main features of the Egyptian exports comparedwith the foreign exports in COMESA and the recommendedaction to be taken towards the establishment of the EgyptianRDCs in CO MESA.

  11. Robust decision analysis for environmental management of groundwater contamination sites

    CERN Document Server

    Vesselinov, Velimir V; Katzman, Danny

    2013-01-01

    In contrast to many other engineering fields, the uncertainties in subsurface processes (e.g., fluid flow and contaminant transport in aquifers) and their parameters are notoriously difficult to observe, measure, and characterize. This causes severe uncertainties that need to be addressed in any decision analysis related to optimal management and remediation of groundwater contamination sites. Furthermore, decision analyses typically rely heavily on complex data analyses and/or model predictions, which are often poorly constrained as well. Recently, we have developed a model-driven decision-support framework (called MADS; http://mads.lanl.gov) for the management and remediation of subsurface contamination sites in which severe uncertainties and complex physics-based models are coupled to perform scientifically defensible decision analyses. The decision analyses are based on Information Gap Decision Theory (IGDT). We demonstrate the MADS capabilities by solving a decision problem related to optimal monitoring ...

  12. Decision making based on data analysis methods

    OpenAIRE

    Sirola, Miki; Sulkava, Mika

    2016-01-01

    This technical report is based on four our recent articles:"Data fusion of pre-election gallups and polls for improved support estimates", "Analyzing parliamentary elections based on voting advice application data", "The Finnish car rejection reasons shown in an interactive SOM visualization tool", and "Network visualization of car inspection data using graph layout". Neural methods are applied in political and technical decision making. We introduce decision support schemes based on Self-Org...

  13. Contaminant remediation decision analysis using information gap theory

    CERN Document Server

    Harp, Dylan R

    2011-01-01

    Decision making under severe lack of information is a ubiquitous situation in nearly every applied field of engineering, policy, and science. A severe lack of information precludes our ability to determine a frequency of occurrence of events or conditions that impact the decision; therefore, decision uncertainties due to a severe lack of information cannot be characterized probabilistically. To circumvent this problem, information gap (info-gap) theory has been developed to explicitly recognize and quantify the implications of information gaps in decision making. This paper presents a decision analysis based on info-gap theory developed for a contaminant remediation scenario. The analysis provides decision support in determining the fraction of contaminant mass to remove from the environment in the presence of a lack of information related to the contaminant mass flux into an aquifer. An info-gap uncertainty model is developed to characterize uncertainty due to a lack of information concerning the contaminant...

  14. Household consumption, female employment and fertility decisions; A microeconometric analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kalwij, A.S.

    1999-01-01

    This thesis is mainly concerned with a simultaneous analysis of the economic determinants of female employment and fertility decisions on a household level in the Netherlands. In particular, this thesis is interested in the role of the employment decisions of women in the observed behavior that high

  15. An economic analysis of the Maricopa decision.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldberg, L G; Greenberg, W

    1987-01-01

    In Arizona v. Maricopa County Medical Society the United States Supreme Court ruled in a 4-3 decision that the Maricopa Foundation for Medical Care, a nonprofit Arizona corporation, had violated Section 1 of the Sherman Act by engaging in a maximum price-fixing scheme. The Supreme Court in this decision, however, failed to consider the economic impact of the Maricopa Foundation on the cost and quality of health care. The Court's adoption of a per se approach in Maricopa can have a negative impact upon the competition which the antitrust laws are attempting to promote. By focusing only on the narrow aspect of price fixing, the Court ignored (1) the potential of the Maricopa Foundation to contain costs, (2) the potential competitive effect that the foundation may have on third-party carriers and organizations in the marketplace, (3) the relationship of maximum price fixing to economic performance, and (4) the nature of competition in the health care marketplace. This article describes the background of Maricopa as well as the Supreme Court decision. It describes foundations for medical care with special emphasis on the Maricopa Foundation and analyzes Maricopa from an economic rather than the traditional legal perspective, emphasizing how the two perspectives might differ. Attention is paid to the concept of maximum price fixing in the health care marketplace. The concluding section evaluates the Supreme Court decision.

  16. An Analysis of Design Decision-Making in Industrial Practice

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ahmed, Saeema; Hansen, Claus Thorp

    2002-01-01

    is examined. The analysis led to a deeper understanding of the decision-making activities undertaken by engineering designers in industrial practice. The decision-making episodes undertaken by individual designers were supported by design strategies, not by formal decision-making methods. This implies......This paper describes research that confronts a generic decision-making model with design strategies employed by experienced designers. The relationship between the decision-making activities proposed by the model and the eight design strategies identified by an empirical study of design work...... that designers in practice do not rely solely on methods to support their decision-making process, but also on the use of relevant design strategies....

  17. Case history report on East Mesa and Cerro Prieto geothermal fields

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Davis, DG.; Sanyal, S.K.

    1979-06-01

    Well log analysis as applied to the geothermal industry is one of the areas of technology in great need of further development. One means of improving log analysis technology is to study case histories of the past uses of log analysis as applied to specific fields. The project described in this report involved case history studies on two well-known geothermal areas in North America: the East Mesa field in California and the Cerro Prieto field in Mexico. Since there was considerably more pertinent material available on East Mesa, a major part of the effort on this project was devoted to studying the East Mesa field. One particular problem that first came to attention when studying the Cerro Prieto data was the difficulty in determining actual formation temperature at the time of logging. Since the temperature can have a significant effect on well log readings, an accurate temperature determination was considered to be important.

  18. Patient participation in palliative care decisions: An ethnographic discourse analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bélanger, Emmanuelle; Rodríguez, Charo; Groleau, Danielle; Légaré, France; MacDonald, Mary Ellen; Marchand, Robert

    2016-01-01

    The participation of patients in making decisions about their care is especially important towards the end of life because palliative care decisions involve extensive uncertainty and are heavily influenced by personal values. Yet, there is a scarcity of studies directly observing clinical interactions between palliative patients and their health care providers. In this study, we aimed to understand how patient participation in palliative care decisions is constructed through discourse in a community hospital-based palliative care team. This qualitative study combined ethnographic observations of a palliative care team with discourse analysis. Eighteen palliative care patients with cancer diagnoses, six family physicians, and two nurses were involved in the study. Multiple interactions were observed between each patient and health care providers over the course of 1 year, for a total of 101 consultations, 24 of which were audio-recorded. The analysis consisted in looking for the interpretive repertoires (i.e., familiar lines of argument used to justify actions) that were used to justify patient participation in decision-making during clinical interactions, as well as exploring their implications for decision roles and end-of-life care. Patients and their health care providers seldom addressed their decision-making roles explicitly. Rather, they constructed patient participation in palliative care decisions in a covert manner. Four interpretive repertoires were used to justify patient participation: (1) exposing uncertainty, (2) co-constructing patient preferences, (3) affirming patient autonomy, and finally (4) upholding the authority of health care providers. The results demonstrate how patients and health care providers used these arguments to negotiate their respective roles in decision-making. In conclusion, patients and health care providers used a variety of interpretive repertoires to covertly negotiate their roles in decision-making, and to legitimize

  19. Patient participation in palliative care decisions: An ethnographic discourse analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emmanuelle Bélanger

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available The participation of patients in making decisions about their care is especially important towards the end of life because palliative care decisions involve extensive uncertainty and are heavily influenced by personal values. Yet, there is a scarcity of studies directly observing clinical interactions between palliative patients and their health care providers. In this study, we aimed to understand how patient participation in palliative care decisions is constructed through discourse in a community hospital-based palliative care team. This qualitative study combined ethnographic observations of a palliative care team with discourse analysis. Eighteen palliative care patients with cancer diagnoses, six family physicians, and two nurses were involved in the study. Multiple interactions were observed between each patient and health care providers over the course of 1 year, for a total of 101 consultations, 24 of which were audio-recorded. The analysis consisted in looking for the interpretive repertoires (i.e., familiar lines of argument used to justify actions that were used to justify patient participation in decision-making during clinical interactions, as well as exploring their implications for decision roles and end-of-life care. Patients and their health care providers seldom addressed their decision-making roles explicitly. Rather, they constructed patient participation in palliative care decisions in a covert manner. Four interpretive repertoires were used to justify patient participation: (1 exposing uncertainty, (2 co-constructing patient preferences, (3 affirming patient autonomy, and finally (4 upholding the authority of health care providers. The results demonstrate how patients and health care providers used these arguments to negotiate their respective roles in decision-making. In conclusion, patients and health care providers used a variety of interpretive repertoires to covertly negotiate their roles in decision-making, and to

  20. Calidad de las aceitunas de mesa.

    OpenAIRE

    Garrido Fernández, Antonio; Romero Barranco, Concepción

    1999-01-01

    The paper comments the different regulations related to table olives at national or international scales. The Unified Qualitative standard Applying to Table Olives in International Trade and COI/Codex (International Olive Oil Council, IOC, and IOC/Codex Alimentarius), «Reglamentación Técnico Sanitaria para la elaboración, circulación y venta de aceitunas de mesa» (Spanish), «Normas de calidad para la exportación de aceitunas de mesa» (Spanish), and the United States Standards for Grades of Gr...

  1. Decision Analysis of Dynamic Spectrum Access Rules

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Juan D. Deaton; Luiz A. DaSilva; Christian Wernz

    2011-12-01

    A current trend in spectrum regulation is to incorporate spectrum sharing through the design of spectrum access rules that support Dynamic Spectrum Access (DSA). This paper develops a decision-theoretic framework for regulators to assess the impacts of different decision rules on both primary and secondary operators. We analyze access rules based on sensing and exclusion areas, which in practice can be enforced through geolocation databases. Our results show that receiver-only sensing provides insufficient protection for primary and co-existing secondary users and overall low social welfare. On the other hand, using sensing information between the transmitter and receiver of a communication link, provides dramatic increases in system performance. The performance of using these link end points is relatively close to that of using many cooperative sensing nodes associated to the same access point and large link exclusion areas. These results are useful to regulators and network developers in understanding in developing rules for future DSA regulation.

  2. A Framework for Decision Analysis and Critique.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1981-07-01

    strategies and mechanisms of judgment and choice as well as the phases of decision evaluation and the roles of feedback and learning in individual...o 𔃻 I14 - -4 C3 0 E H 41 -4 CJ EQ U) )4.w H Efl -- 40 H c 0 - 0 U) 4 E-1 0~ C44 P4 0 ca) V0- z LI, H Q) - 104. 00 -c -4Ln 4 I

  3. Thinking styles and decision making: A meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phillips, Wendy J; Fletcher, Jennifer M; Marks, Anthony D G; Hine, Donald W

    2016-03-01

    This meta-analysis examined whether tendencies to use reflective and intuitive thinking styles predicted decision performance (normatively correct responding) and decision experience (e.g., speed, enjoyment) on a range of decision-making tasks. A pooled sample of 17,704 participants (Mage = 25 years) from 89 samples produced small but significant weighted average effects for reflection on performance (r = .11) and experience (r = .14). Intuition was negatively associated with performance (r = -.09) but positively associated with experience (r = .06). Moderation analyses using 499 effect sizes revealed heterogeneity across task-theory match/mismatch, task type, description-based versus experience-based decisions, time pressure, age, and measure type. Effects of both thinking styles were strongest when the task matched the theoretical strengths of the thinking style (up to r = .29). Specific tasks that produced the largest thinking style effects (up to r = .35) were also consistent with system characteristics. Time pressure weakened the effects of reflection, but not intuition, on performance. Effect sizes for reflection on performance were largest for individuals aged either 12 to 18 years or 25+ (up to r = .18), and the effects of both reflection and intuition on experience were largest for adults aged 25+ (up to r = .27). Overall, our results indicate that associations between thinking styles and decision outcomes are context dependent. To improve decision performance and experience, decision architects and educators should carefully consider both individual differences in the decision maker and the nature of the decision task.

  4. Decision aiding in plastic surgery: a multicriteria analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luiz Flávio Autran Monteiro Gomes

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this article is to present, through a real case, a practical way, based on Multicriteria Decision Aiding, to support decision making in Plastic Surgery. The case studied was a Caucasian woman of 36 years of age with mammarian hypertrophia with ptosis and abdominal lipodystrophy, making it necessary to select the most adequate techniques for the best aesthetic result. For this purpose, the multicriteria methods Even Swaps and PrOACT were used. Three plastic surgeons working in the city of Rio de Janeiro with equivalent professional experience were consulted as decision agents. In order to define the objectives to be achieved, the criteria relevant to the making of the decision and the alternatives which could be used were identified. Throughout this identification and in the later analysis the surgeons participated in the application of the methods, which contributed towards facilitating their acceptance of the multicriteria analysis in their decision making. It was confirmed, in this case study, that the use of Multicriteria Decision Aiding tends to make the medical decision more wide ranging and, above all, transparent. The plastic surgeons themselves validated the analysis, considering it fully consistent with their professional experience.

  5. Decision analysis for the selection of tank waste retrieval technology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    DAVIS,FREDDIE J.; DEWEESE,GREGORY C.; PICKETT,WILLIAM W.

    2000-03-01

    The objective of this report is to supplement the C-104 Alternatives Generation and Analysis (AGA) by providing a decision analysis for the alternative technologies described therein. The decision analysis used the Multi-Attribute Utility Analysis (MUA) technique. To the extent possible information will come from the AGA. Where data are not available, elicitation of expert opinion or engineering judgment is used and reviewed by the authors of the AGA. A key element of this particular analysis is the consideration of varying perspectives of parties interested in or affected by the decision. The six alternatives discussed are: sluicing; sluicing with vehicle mounted transfer pump; borehole mining; vehicle with attached sluicing nozzle and pump; articulated arm with attached sluicing nozzle; and mechanical dry retrieval. These are evaluated using four attributes, namely: schedule, cost, environmental impact, and safety.

  6. Making Good Decisions in Healthcare with Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis: The Use, Current Research and Future Development of MCDA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mühlbacher, Axel C; Kaczynski, Anika

    2016-02-01

    Healthcare decision making is usually characterized by a low degree of transparency. The demand for transparent decision processes can be fulfilled only when assessment, appraisal and decisions about health technologies are performed under a systematic construct of benefit assessment. The benefit of an intervention is often multidimensional and, thus, must be represented by several decision criteria. Complex decision problems require an assessment and appraisal of various criteria; therefore, a decision process that systematically identifies the best available alternative and enables an optimal and transparent decision is needed. For that reason, decision criteria must be weighted and goal achievement must be scored for all alternatives. Methods of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) are available to analyse and appraise multiple clinical endpoints and structure complex decision problems in healthcare decision making. By means of MCDA, value judgments, priorities and preferences of patients, insurees and experts can be integrated systematically and transparently into the decision-making process. This article describes the MCDA framework and identifies potential areas where MCDA can be of use (e.g. approval, guidelines and reimbursement/pricing of health technologies). A literature search was performed to identify current research in healthcare. The results showed that healthcare decision making is addressing the problem of multiple decision criteria and is focusing on the future development and use of techniques to weight and score different decision criteria. This article emphasizes the use and future benefit of MCDA.

  7. [Decision analysis in radiology using Markov models].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Golder, W

    2000-01-01

    Markov models (Multistate transition models) are mathematical tools to simulate a cohort of individuals followed over time to assess the prognosis resulting from different strategies. They are applied on the assumption that persons are in one of a finite number of states of health (Markov states). Each condition is given a transition probability as well as an incremental value. Probabilities may be chosen constant or varying over time due to predefined rules. Time horizon is divided into equal increments (Markov cycles). The model calculates quality-adjusted life expectancy employing real-life units and values and summing up the length of time spent in each health state adjusted for objective outcomes and subjective appraisal. This sort of modeling prognosis for a given patient is analogous to utility in common decision trees. Markov models can be evaluated by matrix algebra, probabilistic cohort simulation and Monte Carlo simulation. They have been applied to assess the relative benefits and risks of a limited number of diagnostic and therapeutic procedures in radiology. More interventions should be submitted to Markov analyses in order to elucidate their cost-effectiveness.

  8. Category theoretic analysis of single-photon decision maker

    CERN Document Server

    Kim, Makoto Naruse Song-Ju; Berthel, Martin; Drezet, Aurélien; Huant, Serge; Hori, Hirokazu

    2016-01-01

    Decision making is a vital function in the era of artificial intelligence; however, its physical realizations and their theoretical fundamentals are not yet known. In our former study [Sci. Rep. 5, 513253 (2015)], we demonstrated that single photons can be used to make decisions in uncertain, dynamically changing environments. The multi-armed bandit problem was successfully solved using the dual probabilistic and particle attributes of single photons. Herein, we present the category theoretic foundation of the single-photon-based decision making, including quantitative analysis that agrees well with the experimental results. The category theoretic model unveils complex interdependencies of the entities of the subject matter in the most simplified manner, including a dynamically changing environment. In particular, the octahedral structure in triangulated categories provides a clear understanding of the underlying mechanisms of the single-photon decision maker. This is the first demonstration of a category the...

  9. Decision Analysis of Advanced Scout Helicopter Candidates

    Science.gov (United States)

    1980-01-01

    assist the ASH SSG by constructing a comprehensive ASH evaluation model utilizing multi-attribute utility assessment ( MAUA ) modeling. ~~UA is a forre...results are included as well. The output of the MAUA model is a numerical representation of the worth of each ASH candidate. These numbers are...instance of a methodology called Multi-Attribute Utility Analysis ( MAUA ). In general, MAUA is characterized by the represen- tation of outcomes in terms

  10. Multicriteria Decision Analysis for banks risks evaluation

    OpenAIRE

    Rakotoarivelo, Jean-Baptiste; ZARATÉ, Pascale; Razafimandimby, Josvah Paul

    2015-01-01

    International audience; This poster aims to observe a better choice for risks evaluation Financial organisms. Our aim is to support banks during operations of customers with respect to funding opportunities, investment or credits reaching. First of all, we identify different types of risks associated with this activity and we secondly analysed them thanks to a method of multicriteria analysis AHP (Analytic hierachy Process) with different means adopted to identify them. It should be noted tha...

  11. Decision analysis: a primer and application to pain-related studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Jaewhan; Nelson, Richard; Biskupiak, Joseph

    2008-01-01

    Decision analysis is a quantitative approach to decision making under uncertainty that explicitly states all relevant components of the decision, including statement of the problem, identification of the perspective of the decision maker, alternative courses of action and their consequences, and a model that illustrates the decision-making process. Decision trees and Markov models are used to provide a simplified version of complex clinical problems to help decision makers understand the risks and benefits of several clinical options. This article provides an introduction to decision analysis by describing the construction of decision trees and Markov models and employing examples from the recent literature.

  12. A Data Model for Algorithmic Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cailloux, O.; Tervonen, T.; Verhaegen, B.; Picalausa, F.

    2014-01-01

    Various software tools implementing multiple criteria decision analysis (MCDA) methods have appeared over the last decades. Although MCDA methods share common features, most of the implementing software have been developed independently from scratch. Majority of the tools have a proprietary storage

  13. Child Custody Decisions: Content Analysis of a Judicial Survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Settle, Shirley A; Lowery, Carol R.

    1982-01-01

    Surveyed judges and trial commissioners (N=80) regarding child custody decisions in divorce. The content analysis described the responents' comments which clarified their reasons for attaching greater or lesser importance to a particular consideration or the method using in assessing a particular consideration during a court proceeding. (JAC)

  14. 'Bread Loaf' Mesa East of Phlegra Montes

    Science.gov (United States)

    2002-01-01

    [figure removed for brevity, see original site] An isolated mesa east of the Phlegra Montes in northeastern Elysium Planitia has a cracked surface that, combined with its overall shape, gives the appearance of a giant loaf of bread. Other mesas with similar surfaces are found in the area, suggesting that at one time these mesas were part of a continuous layer of material. It is likely that at that time, some process caused the graben-like cracks to form. Later erosion of the cracked layer left only the isolated mesas seen in the THEMIS image. One clue that supports this scenario is the presence of many filled and eroded craters throughout the scene but no fresh ones. One way to produce this landscape begins with an ancient and heavily cratered surface that subsequently is buried by some other material. If this overburden was stripped off relatively recently, not enough time would have passed to allow for a new population of fresh craters to be produced. The result would be a landscape with isolated mesas of younger material on top of an ancient, cratered surface.Note: this THEMIS visual image has not been radiometrically nor geometrically calibrated for this preliminary release. An empirical correction has been performed to remove instrumental effects. A linear shift has been applied in the cross-track and down-track direction to approximate spacecraft and planetary motion. Fully calibrated and geometrically projected images will be released through the Planetary Data System in accordance with Project policies at a later time.NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory manages the 2001 Mars Odyssey mission for NASA's Office of Space Science, Washington, D.C. The Thermal Emission Imaging System (THEMIS) was developed by Arizona State University, Tempe, in collaboration with Raytheon Santa Barbara Remote Sensing. The THEMIS investigation is led by Dr. Philip Christensen at Arizona State University. Lockheed Martin Astronautics, Denver, is the prime contractor for the Odyssey

  15. Exposure models for the prior distribution in bayesian decision analysis for occupational hygiene decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Eun Gyung; Kim, Seung Won; Feigley, Charles E; Harper, Martin

    2013-01-01

    This study introduces two semi-quantitative methods, Structured Subjective Assessment (SSA) and Control of Substances Hazardous to Health (COSHH) Essentials, in conjunction with two-dimensional Monte Carlo simulations for determining prior probabilities. Prior distribution using expert judgment was included for comparison. Practical applications of the proposed methods were demonstrated using personal exposure measurements of isoamyl acetate in an electronics manufacturing facility and of isopropanol in a printing shop. Applicability of these methods in real workplaces was discussed based on the advantages and disadvantages of each method. Although these methods could not be completely independent of expert judgments, this study demonstrated a methodological improvement in the estimation of the prior distribution for the Bayesian decision analysis tool. The proposed methods provide a logical basis for the decision process by considering determinants of worker exposure.

  16. Risk Analysis and Decision Making FY 2013 Milestone Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Engel, David W.; Dalton, Angela C.; Dale, Crystal; Jones, Edward; Thompson, J.

    2013-06-01

    Risk analysis and decision making is one of the critical objectives of CCSI, which seeks to use information from science-based models with quantified uncertainty to inform decision makers who are making large capital investments. The goal of this task is to develop tools and capabilities to facilitate the development of risk models tailored for carbon capture technologies, quantify the uncertainty of model predictions, and estimate the technical and financial risks associated with the system. This effort aims to reduce costs by identifying smarter demonstrations, which could accelerate development and deployment of the technology by several years.

  17. Accommodating complexity and human behaviors in decision analysis.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Backus, George A.; Siirola, John Daniel; Schoenwald, David Alan; Strip, David R.; Hirsch, Gary B.; Bastian, Mark S.; Braithwaite, Karl R.; Homer, Jack [Homer Consulting

    2007-11-01

    This is the final report for a LDRD effort to address human behavior in decision support systems. One sister LDRD effort reports the extension of this work to include actual human choices and additional simulation analyses. Another provides the background for this effort and the programmatic directions for future work. This specific effort considered the feasibility of five aspects of model development required for analysis viability. To avoid the use of classified information, healthcare decisions and the system embedding them became the illustrative example for assessment.

  18. Systematic approaches to data analysis from the Critical Decision Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martin Sedlár

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the present paper is to introduce how to analyse the qualitative data from the Critical Decision Method. At first, characterizing the method provides the meaningful introduction into the issue. This method used in naturalistic decision making research is one of the cognitive task analysis methods, it is based on the retrospective semistructured interview about critical incident from the work and it may be applied in various domains such as emergency services, military, transport, sport or industry. Researchers can make two types of methodological adaptation. Within-method adaptations modify the way of conducting the interviews and cross-method adaptations combine this method with other related methods. There are many decsriptions of conducting the interview, but the descriptions how the data should be analysed are rare. Some researchers use conventional approaches like content analysis, grounded theory or individual procedures with reference to the objectives of research project. Wong (2004 describes two approaches to data analysis proposed for this method of data collection, which are described and reviewed in the details. They enable systematic work with a large amount of data. The structured approach organizes the data according to an a priori analysis framework and it is suitable for clearly defined object of research. Each incident is studied separately. At first, the decision chart showing the main decision points and then the incident summary are made. These decision points are used to identify the relevant statements from the transcript, which are analysed in terms of the Recognition-Primed Decision Model. Finally, the results from all the analysed incidents are integrated. The limitation of the structured approach is it may not reveal some interesting concepts. The emergent themes approach helps to identify these concepts while maintaining a systematic framework for analysis and it is used for exploratory research design. It

  19. Assessment of Transport Projects: Risk Analysis and Decision Support

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Salling, Kim Bang

    2008-01-01

    The subject of this thesis is risk analysis and decision support in the context of transport infrastructure assessment. During my research I have observed a tendency in studies of assessing transport projects of overlooking the substantial amount of uncertainties within the decision making process....... Even though vast amounts of money are spent upon preliminary models, environmental investigations, public hearings, etc., the resulting outcome is given by point estimates, i.e. in terms of net present values or benefit-cost rates. This thesis highlights the perspective of risks when assessing...... transport projects, namely by moving from point estimates to interval results. The main focus of this Ph.D. study has been to develop a valid, flexible and functional decision support tool in which risk oriented aspects of project evaluation is implemented. Throughout the study six papers have been produced...

  20. Insurance Contract Analysis for Company Decision Support in Acquisition Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chernovita, H. P.; Manongga, D.; Iriani, A.

    2017-01-01

    One of company activities to retain their business is marketing the products which include in acquisition management to get new customers. Insurance contract analysis using ID3 to produce decision tree and rules to be decision support for the insurance company. The decision tree shows 13 rules that lead to contract termination claim. This could be a guide for the insurance company in acquisition management to prevent contract binding with these contract condition because it has a big chance for the customer to terminate their insurance contract before its expired date. As the result, there are several strong points that could be the determinant of contract termination such as: 1) customer age whether too young or too old, 2) long insurance period (above 10 years), 3) big insurance amount, 4) big amount of premium charges, and 5) payment method.

  1. Analysis of Production and Location Decisions by Means of Multi-Criteria Analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    P. Nijkamp (Peter); J. Spronk (Jaap)

    1979-01-01

    textabstractDuring the last few years economists and operations researchers have paid much attention to multi-criteria analysis as a tool in modern decision-making. The basic feature of multi-criteria analysis is the fact that a wide variety of relevant decision aspects can be taken into account wit

  2. Contaminant Transport Parameters for the Groundwater Flow and Contaminant Transport Model of Corrective Action Units 101 and 102: Central and Western Pahute Mesa, Nye County, Nevada, Revision 0

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Drici, Warda

    2003-08-01

    This report documents the analysis of the available transport parameter data conducted in support of the development of a Corrective Action Unit (CAU) groundwater flow model for Central and Western Pahute Mesa: CAUs 101 and 102.

  3. Hydrologic Data for the Groundwater Flow and Contaminant Transport Model of Corrective Action Units 101 and 102: Central and Western Pahute Mesa, Nye County, Nevada, Revision 0

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Drici, Warda

    2004-02-01

    This report documents the analysis of the available hydrologic data conducted in support of the development of a Corrective Action Unit (CAU) groundwater flow model for Central and Western Pahute Mesa: CAUs 101 and 102.

  4. Clustering Analysis of Black-start Decision-making with a Large Group of Decision-makers

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2012-01-01

    The optimization of black start decisiommaking plays an important role in the rapid restoration of a power system after a major failure/outage. With the introduction of the concept of smart grids and the development of real-time communication networks, the black-start decision-makers are no longer limited to only one or a few power system experts such as dispatchers, but rather a large group of professional people in practice. The overall behaviors of a large decision-making group of decision-makers/experts are more complicated and unpredictable. However, the existing methods for black-start decision-making cannot handle the situations with a large group of decision-makers. Given this background, a clustering algorithm is presented to optimize the black-start decision-making problem with a large group of decision-makers. Group decision-making preferences are obtained by clustering analysis, and the final black-start decisiommaking results are achieved by combining the weights of black-start indexes and the preferences of the decision-making group. The effectiveness of the proposed method is validated by a practical case. This work extends the black-start decision-making problem to situations with a large group of decision-makers.

  5. Multi-criteria decision analysis for use in transport decision making

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    ’s feasibility. A socioeconomic analysis is in this respect a further development of the traditional CBA capturing the economic value of social benefits by translating social objectives into financial measures of benefits (Wright et al.,2009). Internationally seen there has been a growing awareness over...... the recent years that besides the social costs and benefits associated with transport other impacts that are more difficult to monetise should also have influence on the decision making process. This is in many developed countries realised in the transport planning, which takes into account a wide range...

  6. Analysis of tables, murals, grids and chassis available for conventional diagnostic radiology; Analise de mesas, murais, grades e chassis disponiveis para radiologia diagnostica convencional

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Batista, Wilson Otto; Navarro, Marcus Vinicius Teixeira [Centro Federal de Educacao Tecnologica da Bahia (CEFET-BA), Salvador, BA (Brazil). Nucleo de Tecnologia em Saude. Lab. de Fisica Radiologica], e-mail: wilson@cefetnet.com.br, e-mail: mvtn@cefetba.br; Ferreira, Mario de Jesus [Universidade do Estado da Bahia (UNEB), Alagoinhas, BA (Brazil)], e-mail: mario@cefetba.br

    2003-07-01

    Tables, bucky, grids, chassis and their combinations produced by several industries have been analysed, verifying and quantifying the attenuation in order to confront the results with the national and international recommendations. The results have shown that some of those tables do not satisfy the national requirements and for that reason increasing the patient dose. As the dose measurements are performed on the table or bucky, the analysis normally is not considered for quality control verifications and have to be considered, as those parts are positioned among the patient and the image receptor (radiological film) influenced the skin dose.

  7. Inventory and Evaluation of Cultural Resources, Bolsa Chica Mesa and Huntington Beach Mesa, Orange County, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    1989-09-30

    especially groves of eucalyptus . Ground visibility was generally fair to good. Most of Bolsa Chica Mesa is covered by agricultural fields, although some oil...This is the essence of site significance evaluations, and ultimately should be the goal of the testing program. Methods Because the nature of sites and

  8. 36 CFR 7.39 - Mesa Verde National Park.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 36 Parks, Forests, and Public Property 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Mesa Verde National Park. 7.39 Section 7.39 Parks, Forests, and Public Property NATIONAL PARK SERVICE, DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR SPECIAL REGULATIONS, AREAS OF THE NATIONAL PARK SYSTEM § 7.39 Mesa Verde National Park. (a) Visiting...

  9. Mathematics, Engineering Science Achievement (MESA). Washington's Community and Technical Colleges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Washington State Board for Community and Technical Colleges, 2014

    2014-01-01

    Growing Science, Technology, Education, and Mathematics (STEM) talent Washington MESA--Mathematics Engineering Science Achievement--helps under-represented community college students excel in school and ultimately earn STEM bachelor's degrees. MESA has two key programs: one for K-12 students, and the other for community and technical college…

  10. Multi-criteria decision analysis: Limitations, pitfalls, and practical difficulties

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kujawski, Edouard

    2003-02-01

    The 2002 Winter Olympics women's figure skating competition is used as a case study to illustrate some of the limitations, pitfalls, and practical difficulties of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA). The paper compares several widely used models for synthesizing the multiple attributes into a single aggregate value. The various MCDA models can provide conflicting rankings of the alternatives for a common set of information even under states of certainty. Analysts involved in MCDA need to deal with the following challenging tasks: (1) selecting an appropriate analysis method, and (2) properly interpreting the results. An additional trap is the availability of software tools that implement specific MCDA models that can beguile the user with quantitative scores. These conclusions are independent of the decision domain and they should help foster better MCDA practices in many fields including systems engineering trade studies.

  11. Comparative Analysis of Serial Decision Tree Classification Algorithms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthew Nwokejizie Anyanwu

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available Classification of data objects based on a predefined knowledge of the objects is a data mining and knowledge management technique used in grouping similar data objects together. It can be defined as supervised learning algorithms as it assigns class labels to data objects based on the relationship between the data items with a pre-defined class label. Classification algorithms have a wide range of applications like churn prediction, fraud detection, artificial intelligence, and credit card rating etc. Also there are many classification algorithms available in literature but decision trees is the most commonly used because of its ease of implementation and easier to understand compared to other classification algorithms. Decision Tree classification algorithm can be implemented in a serial or parallel fashion based on the volume of data, memory space available on the computer resource and scalability of the algorithm. In this paper we will review the serial implementations of the decision tree algorithms, identify those that are commonly used. We will also use experimental analysis based on sample data records (Statlog data sets to evaluate the performance of the commonly used serial decision tree algorithms

  12. Decision analysis of treatment choices in the osteochondroses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bunch, W H

    1981-01-01

    Physicians tend to decry the lack of data on which they can make decisions. This is commendable, and all should encourage the pursuit of better data and more precise analysis. But decisions must be made, and each physician must deal with what data are available and evaluate them against all the general uncertainties. Equally important are the values that we place on the outcome of treatment. Much of the disagreement among physicians about treatment protocols involves a difference in values. While this is not necessarily bad, it points to the need to consider explicitly the value we place on a result or the morbidity possibly accompanying that result. In the osteochondroses, consideration of values will protect patients from overzealous treatment. Finally, the formality of a decision process should not necessarily modify a plan of treatment based on fundamentally sound principles, intuition, and anecdotal experience. Regardless of which factors represent the basis for an individual surgeon's selection of a particular approach, evaluation of both desirable and undesirable aspects of each alternative prevents impulsive acceptance of the most recently described, often unproven operation. Salter's aphorism: "The decision is more important than the incision," is particularly applicable in treatment of the osteochondroses.

  13. Choosing a Commercial Broiler Strain Based on Multicriteria Decision Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hosseini SA

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available With the complexity and amount of information in a wide variety of comparative performance reports in poultry production, making a decision is difficult. This problem is overcomed only when all data can be put into a common unit. For this purpose, five different decision making analysis approaches including  Maximin, Equally likely, Weighted average, Ordered weighted averages and Technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution were used to choose the best broiler strain among three ones based on their comparative performance and carcass characteristics. Commercial broiler strains of 6000 designated as R, A, and C (each strain 2000 were randomly allocated into three treatments of five replicates. In this study, all methods showed similar results except Maximin approach. Comparing different methods indicated that strain C with the highest world share market has the best performance followed by strains R and A.

  14. An Information Theory Analysis of Spatial Decisions in Cognitive Development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicole M Scott

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Performance in a cognitive task can be considered as the outcome of a decision-making process operating across various knowledge domains or aspects of a single domain. Therefore, an analysis of these decisions in various tasks can shed light on the interplay and integration of these domains (or elements within a single domain as they are associated with specific task characteristics. In this study, we applied an information theoretic approach to assess quantitatively the gain of knowledge across various elements of the cognitive domain of spatial, relational knowledge, as a function of development. Specifically, we examined changing spatial relational knowledge from ages five to ten years. Our analyses consisted of a two-step process. First, we performed a hierarchical clustering analysis on the decisions made in 16 different tasks of spatial relational knowledge to determine which tasks were performed similarly at each age group as well as to discover how the tasks clustered together. We next used two measures of entropy to capture the gradual emergence of order in the development of relational knowledge. These measures of cognitive entropy were defined based on two independent aspects of chunking, namely (1 the number of clusters formed at each age group, and (2 the distribution of tasks across the clusters. We found that both measures of entropy decreased with age in a quadratic fashion and were positively and linearly correlated. The decrease in entropy and, therefore, gain of information during development was accompanied by improved performance. These results document, for the first time, the orderly and progressively structured chunking of decisions across the development of spatial relational reasoning and quantify this gain within a formal information-theoretic framework.

  15. An information theory analysis of spatial decisions in cognitive development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scott, Nicole M; Sera, Maria D; Georgopoulos, Apostolos P

    2015-01-01

    Performance in a cognitive task can be considered as the outcome of a decision-making process operating across various knowledge domains or aspects of a single domain. Therefore, an analysis of these decisions in various tasks can shed light on the interplay and integration of these domains (or elements within a single domain) as they are associated with specific task characteristics. In this study, we applied an information theoretic approach to assess quantitatively the gain of knowledge across various elements of the cognitive domain of spatial, relational knowledge, as a function of development. Specifically, we examined changing spatial relational knowledge from ages 5 to 10 years. Our analyses consisted of a two-step process. First, we performed a hierarchical clustering analysis on the decisions made in 16 different tasks of spatial relational knowledge to determine which tasks were performed similarly at each age group as well as to discover how the tasks clustered together. We next used two measures of entropy to capture the gradual emergence of order in the development of relational knowledge. These measures of "cognitive entropy" were defined based on two independent aspects of chunking, namely (1) the number of clusters formed at each age group, and (2) the distribution of tasks across the clusters. We found that both measures of entropy decreased with age in a quadratic fashion and were positively and linearly correlated. The decrease in entropy and, therefore, gain of information during development was accompanied by improved performance. These results document, for the first time, the orderly and progressively structured "chunking" of decisions across the development of spatial relational reasoning and quantify this gain within a formal information-theoretic framework.

  16. Archaeological investigations on the Buckboard Mesa Road Project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Amick, D.S.; Henton, G.H.; Pippin, L.C.

    1991-10-01

    In 1986, the Desert Research Institute (DRI) conducted an archaeological reconnaissance of a new alignment for the Buckboard Mesa Road on the Nevada Test Site for the Department of Energy (DOE). During this reconnaissance, several archaeological sites of National Register quality were discovered and recorded including a large quarry, site 26Ny4892, and a smaller lithic scatter, site 26Ny4894. Analysis of the debitage at 26Ny4892 indicates that this area was used primarily as a quarry for relatively small cobbles of obsidian found in the alluvium. Lithic reduction techniques used here are designed for efficiently reducing small pieces of toolstone and are oriented towards producing flake blanks from small cores and bifacially reducing exhausted cores. Projectile point cross references indicate that the area has seen at least casual use for about 10,000 years and more sustained use for the last 3,000 years. Initial obsidian hydration measurements indicate sustained use of the quarry for about the last 3,000 years although the loci of activities appear to change over time. Based on this study, the DRI recommends that quarrying activities in the area of 26Ny4892 are sufficiently sampled and that additional investigations into that aspect of prehistoric activity in the area are not necessary. This does not apply to other aspects of prehistoric use. DRI recommends that preconstruction surveys continue to identify nonquarrying, prehistoric utilization of the area. With the increased traffic on the Buckboard Mesa Road, there is a greater potential for vandalism to sites of National Register-quality located near the road. The DRI recommends that during the orientation briefing the workers at the Test Site be educated about the importance of cultural resources and the need for their protection. 202 refs., 41 figs., 52 tabs.

  17. Choices, choices: the application of multi-criteria decision analysis to a food safety decision-making problem.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fazil, A; Rajic, A; Sanchez, J; McEwen, S

    2008-11-01

    In the food safety arena, the decision-making process can be especially difficult. Decision makers are often faced with social and fiscal pressures when attempting to identify an appropriate balance among several choices. Concurrently, policy and decision makers in microbial food safety are under increasing pressure to demonstrate that their policies and decisions are made using transparent and accountable processes. In this article, we present a multi-criteria decision analysis approach that can be used to address the problem of trying to select a food safety intervention while balancing various criteria. Criteria that are important when selecting an intervention were determined, as a result of an expert consultation, to include effectiveness, cost, weight of evidence, and practicality associated with the interventions. The multi-criteria decision analysis approach we present is able to consider these criteria and arrive at a ranking of interventions. It can also provide a clear justification for the ranking as well as demonstrate to stakeholders, through a scenario analysis approach, how to potentially converge toward common ground. While this article focuses on the problem of selecting food safety interventions, the range of applications in the food safety arena is truly diverse and can be a significant tool in assisting decisions that need to be coherent, transparent, and justifiable. Most importantly, it is a significant contributor when there is a need to strike a fine balance between various potentially competing alternatives and/or stakeholder groups.

  18. Fuzzy Multicriteria Decision Analysis for Adaptive Watershed Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, N.

    2006-12-01

    The dramatic changes of societal complexity due to intensive interactions among agricultural, industrial, and municipal sectors have resulted in acute issues of water resources redistribution and water quality management in many river basins. Given the fact that integrated watershed management is more a political and societal than a technical challenge, there is a need for developing a compelling method leading to justify a water-based land use program in some critical regions. Adaptive watershed management is viewed as an indispensable tool nowadays for providing step-wise constructive decision support that is concerned with all related aspects of the water consumption cycle and those facilities affecting water quality and quantity temporally and spatially. Yet the greatest challenge that decision makers face today is to consider how to leverage ambiguity, paradox, and uncertainty to their competitive advantage of management policy quantitatively. This paper explores a fuzzy multicriteria evaluation method for water resources redistribution and subsequent water quality management with respect to a multipurpose channel-reservoir system--the Tseng- Wen River Basin, South Taiwan. Four fuzzy operators tailored for this fuzzy multicriteria decision analysis depict greater flexibility in representing the complexity of various possible trade-offs among management alternatives constrained by physical, economic, and technical factors essential for adaptive watershed management. The management strategies derived may enable decision makers to integrate a vast number of internal weirs, water intakes, reservoirs, drainage ditches, transfer pipelines, and wastewater treatment facilities within the basin and bring up the permitting issue for transboundary diversion from a neighboring river basin. Experience gained indicates that the use of different types of fuzzy operators is highly instructive, which also provide unique guidance collectively for achieving the overarching goals

  19. FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE INDICATORS OF TUNISIAN COMPANIES: DECISION TREE ANALYSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ferdaws Ezzi

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The article at hand is an attempt to identify the various indicators that are more likely to explain the financial performance of Tunisian companies. In this respective, the emphasis is put on diversification, innovation, intrapersonal and interpersonal skills. Indeed, they are the appropriate strategies that can designate emotional intelligence, the level of indebtedness, the firm age and size as the proper variables that support the target variable. The "decision tree", as a new data analysis method, is utilized to analyze our work. The results involve the construction of a crucial model which is used to achieve a sound financial performance.

  20. Clinical decision support tools: analysis of online drug information databases

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seamon Matthew J

    2007-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Online drug information databases are used to assist in enhancing clinical decision support. However, the choice of which online database to consult, purchase or subscribe to is likely made based on subjective elements such as history of use, familiarity, or availability during professional training. The purpose of this study was to evaluate clinical decision support tools for drug information by systematically comparing the most commonly used online drug information databases. Methods Five commercially available and two freely available online drug information databases were evaluated according to scope (presence or absence of answer, completeness (the comprehensiveness of the answers, and ease of use. Additionally, a composite score integrating all three criteria was utilized. Fifteen weighted categories comprised of 158 questions were used to conduct the analysis. Descriptive statistics and Chi-square were used to summarize the evaluation components and make comparisons between databases. Scheffe's multiple comparison procedure was used to determine statistically different scope and completeness scores. The composite score was subjected to sensitivity analysis to investigate the effect of the choice of percentages for scope and completeness. Results The rankings for the databases from highest to lowest, based on composite scores were Clinical Pharmacology, Micromedex, Lexi-Comp Online, Facts & Comparisons 4.0, Epocrates Online Premium, RxList.com, and Epocrates Online Free. Differences in scope produced three statistical groupings with Group 1 (best performers being: Clinical Pharmacology, Micromedex, Facts & Comparisons 4.0, Lexi-Comp Online, Group 2: Epocrates Premium and RxList.com and Group 3: Epocrates Free (p Conclusion Online drug information databases, which belong to clinical decision support, vary in their ability to answer questions across a range of categories.

  1. ANALYSIS AND COMPARISON OF EXISTING DECISION SUPPORT TECHNOLOGY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. A. Rybak

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The article presents the results of an analytical review and comparison of the most common managerial decision support technologies: the analytic hierarchy method, neural networks, fuzzy set theory, genetic algorithms and neural-fuzzy modeling. The advantages and disadvantages of these approaches are shown. Determine the scope of their application. It is shown that the hierarchy analysis method works well with the full initial information, but due to the need for expert comparison of alternatives and the selection of evaluation criteria has a high proportion of subjectivity. For problems in the conditions of risk and uncertainty prediction seems reasonable use of the theory of fuzzy sets and neural networks. It is also considered technology collective decision applied both in the general election, and the group of experts. It reduces the time for conciliation meetings to reach a consensus by the preliminary analysis of all views submitted for the plane in the form of points. At the same time the consistency of opinion is determined by the distance between them.

  2. Applications of decision analysis and related techniques to industrial engineering problems at KSC

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evans, Gerald W.

    1995-01-01

    This report provides: (1) a discussion of the origination of decision analysis problems (well-structured problems) from ill-structured problems; (2) a review of the various methodologies and software packages for decision analysis and related problem areas; (3) a discussion of how the characteristics of a decision analysis problem affect the choice of modeling methodologies, thus providing a guide as to when to choose a particular methodology; and (4) examples of applications of decision analysis to particular problems encountered by the IE Group at KSC. With respect to the specific applications at KSC, particular emphasis is placed on the use of the Demos software package (Lumina Decision Systems, 1993).

  3. When the business of sharing treatment decisions is not the same as shared decision making: A discourse analysis of decision sharing in general practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robertson, Maggie; Moir, Jim; Skelton, John; Dowell, Jon; Cowan, Sue

    2011-01-01

    Although shared decision making (SDM) in general practice continues to be promoted as a highly desirable means of conducting consultations it is rarely observed in practice. The aim of this study is to identify the discursive features and conversational strategies particular to the negotiation and sharing of treatment decisions in order to understand why SDM is not yet embedded into routine practice. Consultations from Scottish general practices were examined using discourse analysis. Two themes were identified as key components for when the doctor and the patient were intent on sharing decisions: the generation of patient involvement using first-person pronouns, and successful and unsuccessful patient requesting practices. This article identifies a number of conversational activities found to be successful in supporting doctors' agendas and reducing their responsibility for decisions made. Doctor's use of 'partnership talk' was found to minimize resistance and worked to invite consensus rather than involvement. The information from this study provides new insight into the consultation process by identifying how treatment decisions are arrived at through highlighting the complexities involved. Notably, shared decision making does not happen with the ease implied by current models and appears to work to maintain a biomedical 'GP as expert' approach rather than one in which the patient is truly involved in partnership. We suggest that further research on the impact of conversational activities is likely to benefit our understanding of shared decision making and hence training in and the practice of SDM.

  4. Magnetotelluric Data, Rainier Mesa/Shoshone Mountain, Nevada Test Site, Nevada.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jackie M. Williams; Jay A. Sampson; Brian D. Rodriguez; and Theodore H. Asch.

    2006-11-03

    Shoshone Mountain, to Buckboard Mesa in the south, and onto Rainier Mesa in the north. Subsequent interpretation will include a three-dimensional (3-D) character analysis and a two-dimensional (2-D) resistivity model. The purpose of this report is to release the MT sounding data for the twenty-six stations shown in figure 1. No interpretation of the data is included here.

  5. Astronomical Alignments of the Sun Temple site in Mesa Verde National Park

    CERN Document Server

    Towers, Sherry

    2016-01-01

    Summer 2015 marked the 100th anniversary of the excavation by J.W. Fewkes of the Sun Temple in Mesa Verde National Park, Colorado; an ancient ceremonial complex of unknown purpose, prominently located atop a mesa, constructed by the Pueblo Indians approximately 1000 years ago. In this analysis we perform a digital survey of the site, and examine the possibility that four key tower-like elements of the complex were used for observation of the rise or set of celestial bodies known to be sacred to the Pueblo Indians. We find statistically significant evidence that the site was used for astronomical observation of the rise and/or set of nearly all such bodies. The Sun Temple appears to represent the most comprehensive prehistoric astronomical observatory yet uncovered.

  6. Characteristics of blocking voltage for power 4H-SiC BJTs with mesa edge termination

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Qian, Zhang; Yuming, Zhang; Yimen, Zhang, E-mail: zq_xacom@163.co [Key Laboratory of Semiconductor Wide Band-Gap Materials and Devices, School of Microelectronics, Xidian University, Xi' an 710071 (China)

    2010-07-15

    According to the avalanche ionization theory, a computer-based analysis is performed to analyze the structural parameters of single- and multiple-zone junction termination extension (JTE) structures for 4H-SiC bipolar junction transistors (BJTs) with mesa structure. The calculation results show that a single-zone JTE can yield high breakdown voltages if the activated JTE dose and the implantation width are controlled precisely and a multiple-zone JTE method can decrease the peak surface field while still maintaining a high blocking capability. The influences of the positive and negative surface or interface states on the blocking capability are also shown. These conclusions have a realistic meaning in optimizing the design of a mesa power device.

  7. BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE TOOLS FOR DATA ANALYSIS AND DECISION MAKING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    DEJAN ZDRAVESKI

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Every business is dynamic in nature and is affected by various external and internal factors. These factors include external market conditions, competitors, internal restructuring and re-alignment, operational optimization and paradigm shifts in the business itself. New regulations and restrictions, in combination with the above factors, contribute to the constant evolutionary nature of compelling, business-critical information; the kind of information that an organization needs to sustain and thrive. Business intelligence (“BI” is broad term that encapsulates the process of gathering information pertaining to a business and the market it functions in. This information when collated and analyzed in the right manner, can provide vital insights into the business and can be a tool to improve efficiency, reduce costs, reduce time lags and bring many positive changes. A business intelligence application helps to achieve precisely that. Successful organizations maximize the use of their data assets through business intelligence technology. The first data warehousing and decision support tools introduced companies to the power and benefits of accessing and analyzing their corporate data. Business users at every level found new, more sophisticated ways to analyze and report on the information mined from their vast data warehouses.Choosing a Business Intelligence offering is an important decision for an enterprise, one that will have a significant impact throughout the enterprise. The choice of a BI offering will affect people up and down the chain of command (senior management, analysts, and line managers and across functional areas (sales, finance, and operations. It will affect business users, application developers, and IT professionals. BI applications include the activities of decision support systems (DSS, query and reporting, online analyticalprocessing (OLAP, statistical analysis, forecasting, and data mining. Another way of phrasing this is

  8. Portfolio Decision Analysis Framework for Value-Focused Ecosystem Management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Convertino, Matteo; Valverde, L James

    2013-01-01

    Management of natural resources in coastal ecosystems is a complex process that is made more challenging by the need for stakeholders to confront the prospect of sea level rise and a host of other environmental stressors. This situation is especially true for coastal military installations, where resource managers need to balance conflicting objectives of environmental conservation against military mission. The development of restoration plans will necessitate incorporating stakeholder preferences, and will, moreover, require compliance with applicable federal/state laws and regulations. To promote the efficient allocation of scarce resources in space and time, we develop a portfolio decision analytic (PDA) framework that integrates models yielding policy-dependent predictions for changes in land cover and species metapopulations in response to restoration plans, under different climate change scenarios. In a manner that is somewhat analogous to financial portfolios, infrastructure and natural resources are classified as human and natural assets requiring management. The predictions serve as inputs to a Multi Criteria Decision Analysis model (MCDA) that is used to measure the benefits of restoration plans, as well as to construct Pareto frontiers that represent optimal portfolio allocations of restoration actions and resources. Optimal plans allow managers to maintain or increase asset values by contrasting the overall degradation of the habitat and possible increased risk of species decline against the benefits of mission success. The optimal combination of restoration actions that emerge from the PDA framework allows decision-makers to achieve higher environmental benefits, with equal or lower costs, than those achievable by adopting the myopic prescriptions of the MCDA model. The analytic framework presented here is generalizable for the selection of optimal management plans in any ecosystem where human use of the environment conflicts with the needs of

  9. Portfolio Decision Analysis Framework for Value-Focused Ecosystem Management.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matteo Convertino

    Full Text Available Management of natural resources in coastal ecosystems is a complex process that is made more challenging by the need for stakeholders to confront the prospect of sea level rise and a host of other environmental stressors. This situation is especially true for coastal military installations, where resource managers need to balance conflicting objectives of environmental conservation against military mission. The development of restoration plans will necessitate incorporating stakeholder preferences, and will, moreover, require compliance with applicable federal/state laws and regulations. To promote the efficient allocation of scarce resources in space and time, we develop a portfolio decision analytic (PDA framework that integrates models yielding policy-dependent predictions for changes in land cover and species metapopulations in response to restoration plans, under different climate change scenarios. In a manner that is somewhat analogous to financial portfolios, infrastructure and natural resources are classified as human and natural assets requiring management. The predictions serve as inputs to a Multi Criteria Decision Analysis model (MCDA that is used to measure the benefits of restoration plans, as well as to construct Pareto frontiers that represent optimal portfolio allocations of restoration actions and resources. Optimal plans allow managers to maintain or increase asset values by contrasting the overall degradation of the habitat and possible increased risk of species decline against the benefits of mission success. The optimal combination of restoration actions that emerge from the PDA framework allows decision-makers to achieve higher environmental benefits, with equal or lower costs, than those achievable by adopting the myopic prescriptions of the MCDA model. The analytic framework presented here is generalizable for the selection of optimal management plans in any ecosystem where human use of the environment conflicts with the

  10. A distance-based uncertainty analysis approach to multi-criteria decision analysis for water resource decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hyde, K M; Maier, H R; Colby, C B

    2005-12-01

    The choice among alternative water supply sources is generally based on the fundamental objective of maximising the ratio of benefits to costs. There is, however, a need to consider sustainability, the environment and social implications in regional water resources planning, in addition to economics. In order to achieve this, multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) techniques can be used. Various sources of uncertainty exist in the application of MCDA methods, including the selection of the MCDA method, elicitation of criteria weights and assignment of criteria performance values. The focus of this paper is on the uncertainty in the criteria weights. Sensitivity analysis can be used to analyse the effects of uncertainties associated with the criteria weights. Two existing sensitivity methods are described in this paper and a new distance-based approach is proposed which overcomes limitations of these methods. The benefits of the proposed approach are the concurrent alteration of the criteria weights, the applicability of the method to a range of MCDA techniques and the identification of the most critical criteria weights. The existing and proposed methods are applied to three case studies and the results indicate that simultaneous consideration of the uncertainty in the criteria weights should be an integral part of the decision making process.

  11. A Decision Analysis Tool for Climate Impacts, Adaptations, and Vulnerabilities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Omitaomu, Olufemi A [ORNL; Parish, Esther S [ORNL; Nugent, Philip J [ORNL

    2016-01-01

    Climate change related extreme events (such as flooding, storms, and drought) are already impacting millions of people globally at a cost of billions of dollars annually. Hence, there are urgent needs for urban areas to develop adaptation strategies that will alleviate the impacts of these extreme events. However, lack of appropriate decision support tools that match local applications is limiting local planning efforts. In this paper, we present a quantitative analysis and optimization system with customized decision support modules built on geographic information system (GIS) platform to bridge this gap. This platform is called Urban Climate Adaptation Tool (Urban-CAT). For all Urban-CAT models, we divide a city into a grid with tens of thousands of cells; then compute a list of metrics for each cell from the GIS data. These metrics are used as independent variables to predict climate impacts, compute vulnerability score, and evaluate adaptation options. Overall, the Urban-CAT system has three layers: data layer (that contains spatial data, socio-economic and environmental data, and analytic data), middle layer (that handles data processing, model management, and GIS operation), and application layer (that provides climate impacts forecast, adaptation optimization, and site evaluation). The Urban-CAT platform can guide city and county governments in identifying and planning for effective climate change adaptation strategies.

  12. Markov Modeling with Soft Aggregation for Safety and Decision Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    COOPER,J. ARLIN

    1999-09-01

    The methodology in this report improves on some of the limitations of many conventional safety assessment and decision analysis methods. A top-down mathematical approach is developed for decomposing systems and for expressing imprecise individual metrics as possibilistic or fuzzy numbers. A ''Markov-like'' model is developed that facilitates combining (aggregating) inputs into overall metrics and decision aids, also portraying the inherent uncertainty. A major goal of Markov modeling is to help convey the top-down system perspective. One of the constituent methodologies allows metrics to be weighted according to significance of the attribute and aggregated nonlinearly as to contribution. This aggregation is performed using exponential combination of the metrics, since the accumulating effect of such factors responds less and less to additional factors. This is termed ''soft'' mathematical aggregation. Dependence among the contributing factors is accounted for by incorporating subjective metrics on ''overlap'' of the factors as well as by correspondingly reducing the overall contribution of these combinations to the overall aggregation. Decisions corresponding to the meaningfulness of the results are facilitated in several ways. First, the results are compared to a soft threshold provided by a sigmoid function. Second, information is provided on input ''Importance'' and ''Sensitivity,'' in order to know where to place emphasis on considering new controls that may be necessary. Third, trends in inputs and outputs are tracked in order to obtain significant information% including cyclic information for the decision process. A practical example from the air transportation industry is used to demonstrate application of the methodology. Illustrations are given for developing a structure (along with recommended inputs and weights) for air transportation oversight at three

  13. Generalized concavity in fuzzy optimization and decision analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Ramík, Jaroslav

    2002-01-01

    Convexity of sets in linear spaces, and concavity and convexity of functions, lie at the root of beautiful theoretical results that are at the same time extremely useful in the analysis and solution of optimization problems, including problems of either single objective or multiple objectives. Not all of these results rely necessarily on convexity and concavity; some of the results can guarantee that each local optimum is also a global optimum, giving these methods broader application to a wider class of problems. Hence, the focus of the first part of the book is concerned with several types of generalized convex sets and generalized concave functions. In addition to their applicability to nonconvex optimization, these convex sets and generalized concave functions are used in the book's second part, where decision-making and optimization problems under uncertainty are investigated. Uncertainty in the problem data often cannot be avoided when dealing with practical problems. Errors occur in real-world data for...

  14. Climate policy decisions require policy-based lifecycle analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bento, Antonio M; Klotz, Richard

    2014-05-20

    Lifecycle analysis (LCA) metrics of greenhouse gas emissions are increasingly being used to select technologies supported by climate policy. However, LCAs typically evaluate the emissions associated with a technology or product, not the impacts of policies. Here, we show that policies supporting the same technology can lead to dramatically different emissions impacts per unit of technology added, due to multimarket responses to the policy. Using a policy-based consequential LCA, we find that the lifecycle emissions impacts of four US biofuel policies range from a reduction of 16.1 gCO2e to an increase of 24.0 gCO2e per MJ corn ethanol added by the policy. The differences between these results and representative technology-based LCA measures, which do not account for the policy instrument driving the expansion in the technology, illustrate the need for policy-based LCA measures when informing policy decision making.

  15. A Speedy Cardiovascular Diseases Classifier Using Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wah Ching Lee

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Each year, some 30 percent of global deaths are caused by cardiovascular diseases. This figure is worsening due to both the increasing elderly population and severe shortages of medical personnel. The development of a cardiovascular diseases classifier (CDC for auto-diagnosis will help address solve the problem. Former CDCs did not achieve quick evaluation of cardiovascular diseases. In this letter, a new CDC to achieve speedy detection is investigated. This investigation incorporates the analytic hierarchy process (AHP-based multiple criteria decision analysis (MCDA to develop feature vectors using a Support Vector Machine. The MCDA facilitates the efficient assignment of appropriate weightings to potential patients, thus scaling down the number of features. Since the new CDC will only adopt the most meaningful features for discrimination between healthy persons versus cardiovascular disease patients, a speedy detection of cardiovascular diseases has been successfully implemented.

  16. The Potential for Meta-Analysis to Support Decision Analysis in Ecology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mengersen, Kerrie; MacNeil, M. Aaron; Caley, M. Julian

    2015-01-01

    Meta-analysis and decision analysis are underpinned by well-developed methods that are commonly applied to a variety of problems and disciplines. While these two fields have been closely linked in some disciplines such as medicine, comparatively little attention has been paid to the potential benefits of linking them in ecology, despite reasonable…

  17. Validation of decision-making models and analysis of decision variables in the rat basal ganglia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ito, Makoto; Doya, Kenji

    2009-08-05

    Reinforcement learning theory plays a key role in understanding the behavioral and neural mechanisms of choice behavior in animals and humans. Especially, intermediate variables of learning models estimated from behavioral data, such as the expectation of reward for each candidate choice (action value), have been used in searches for the neural correlates of computational elements in learning and decision making. The aims of the present study are as follows: (1) to test which computational model best captures the choice learning process in animals and (2) to elucidate how action values are represented in different parts of the corticobasal ganglia circuit. We compared different behavioral learning algorithms to predict the choice sequences generated by rats during a free-choice task and analyzed associated neural activity in the nucleus accumbens (NAc) and ventral pallidum (VP). The major findings of this study were as follows: (1) modified versions of an action-value learning model captured a variety of choice strategies of rats, including win-stay-lose-switch and persevering behavior, and predicted rats' choice sequences better than the best multistep Markov model; and (2) information about action values and future actions was coded in both the NAc and VP, but was less dominant than information about trial types, selected actions, and reward outcome. The results of our model-based analysis suggest that the primary role of the NAc and VP is to monitor information important for updating choice behaviors. Information represented in the NAc and VP might contribute to a choice mechanism that is situated elsewhere.

  18. Geology of the Davis Mesa quadrangle, Colorado

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cater, Fred W.; Bryner, Leonid

    1953-01-01

    The Davis Mesa quadrangle is one of eighteen 7 1/2-minute quadrangles covering the principal carnotite-producing area of southwestern Colorado. The geology of these quadrangles was mapped by the U.S. Geological Survey for the Atomic Energy Commission as part of a comprehensive study of carnotite deposits. The rocks exposed in the eighteen quadrangles consist of crystalline rocks of pre-Cambrian age and sedimentary rocks that range in age from late Paleozoic to Quaternary. Over much of the area the sedimentary rocks are flat lying, but in places the rocks are disrupted by hih-angle faults, and northwest-trending folds. Conspicuous among the folds are large anticlines having cores of intrusive salt and gypsum. Most of the carnotite deposits are confined to the Salt Wash sandstone member of Jurassic Morrison formation. Within this sandstone, most of the deposits are spottily distributed through an arcuate zone known as "Uruvan Mineral Belt". Individual deposits range in size from irregular masses containing only a few tons of ore to large, tabular masses containing many thousands of tons. The ore consists largely of sandstone selectively impregnated and in part replaced by uranium and vanadium minerals. Most of the deposits appear to be related to certain sedimentary structures in sandstones of favorable composition.

  19. Geology of the Anderson Mesa quadrangle, Colorado

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cater, Fred W.; Withington, C.F.

    1953-01-01

    The Anderson Mesa quadrangle is one of the eighteen 7 1/2-minute quadrangles covering the principal carnotite-producing area of the southwestern Colorado. The geology of these quadrangles was mapped by the U.S. Geological Survey for the Atomic Energy Commission as part of a comprehensive study of carnotite deposits. The rocks exposed in the eighteenth quadrangles consist of crystalline rocks of pre-Cambrian age and sedimentary rocks that range in age from late Paleozoic to Quarternary. Over much of the area the sedimentary rocks are flat lying, but in places the rocks are disrupted by high-angle faults, and northwest-tending folds. Conspicuous among the folds are large anticlines having cores of intrusive slat and gypsum. Most of the carnotite deposits are confined to the Salt Wash sandstone member of the Jurassic Morrison formation. Within this sandstone, most of the deposits are spottily distributed through an arcuate zone known as the "Uravan Mineral Belt". Individual deposits range in size from irregular masses containing many thousands of tons. The ore consists of largely of sandstone selectively impregnated and in part replaced by uranium and vanadium minerals. Most of the deposits appear to be related to certain sedimentary structures in sandstones of favorable composition.

  20. MESA: Mercator scheduler and archive system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merges, Florian; Prins, Saskia; Pessemier, Wim; Raskin, Gert; Perez Padilla, Jesus; Van Winckel, Hans; Aerts, Conny

    2012-09-01

    We have developed an observing scheduling and archive system for the 1.2 meter Mercator Telescope. The goal was to optimize the specific niche of this modern small telescope in observational astrophysics: the building-up of long-term time series of photometric or high-resolution spectroscopic data with appropriate sampling for any given scientific program. This system allows PIs to easily submit their technical requirements and keep track of the progress of the observing programmes. The scheduling system provides the observer with an optimal schedule for the night which takes into account the current observing conditions as well as the priorities and requirements of the programmes in the queue. The observer can conveniently plan an observing night but also quickly adapt it to changing conditions. The archiving system automatically processes new files as they are created, including reduced data. It extracts the metadata and performs the normalization. A user can query, inspect and retrieve observing data. The progress of individual programmes, including timeline and reduced data plots can be seen at any time. Our MESA project is based on free and open source software (FOSS) using the Python programming language. The system is fully integrated with the Mercator Observing Control System1 (MOCS).

  1. TENDENCY OF IMPROVEMENT ANALYSIS OF VENTURE ACTIVITY FOR MANAGEMENT DECISIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G.Yu. Iakovetс

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The questions concerning the definition of current trends and prospects of venture financing new innovative enterprises as one of the most effective and alternative, but with a high degree of risk financing sources of the entity. The features of venture financing that is different from other sources of business financing, as well as income from investments of venture capital can greatly exceed the volume of investments, but at the same time such financing risks are significant, so it all makes it necessary to build an effective system of venture capital investments in the workplace. In the course of the study also revealed problems of analysis and minimization of risks in the performance of venture financing of innovative enterprises. Defining characteristics analysis and risk assessment of venture financing helps to find ways to minimize and systematization, avoidance and prevention of risks in the performance of venture capital. The study also identified the major areas of improvement analysis of venture capital for management decisions.

  2. Analysis of ETMS Data Quality for Traffic Flow Management Decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chatterji, Gano B.; Sridhar, Banavar; Kim, Douglas

    2003-01-01

    The data needed for air traffic flow management decision support tools is provided by the Enhanced Traffic Management System (ETMS). This includes both the tools that are in current use and the ones being developed for future deployment. Since the quality of decision support provided by all these tools will be influenced by the quality of the input ETMS data, an assessment of ETMS data quality is needed. Motivated by this desire, ETMS data quality is examined in this paper in terms of the unavailability of flight plans, deviation from the filed flight plans, departure delays, altitude errors and track data drops. Although many of these data quality issues are not new, little is known about their extent. A goal of this paper is to document the magnitude of data quality issues supported by numerical analysis of ETMS data. Guided by this goal, ETMS data for a 24-hour period were processed to determine the number of aircraft with missing flight plan messages at any given instant of time. Results are presented for aircraft above 18,000 feet altitude and also at all altitudes. Since deviation from filed flight plan is also a major cause of trajectory-modeling errors, statistics of deviations are presented. Errors in proposed departure times and ETMS-generated vertical profiles are also shown. A method for conditioning the vertical profiles for improving demand prediction accuracy is described. Graphs of actual sector counts obtained using these vertical profiles are compared with those obtained using the Host data for sectors in the Fort Worth Center to demonstrate the benefit of preprocessing. Finally, results are presented to quantify the extent of data drops. A method for propagating track positions during ETMS data drops is also described.

  3. Multi-Criteria Decision Making for a Spatial Decision Support System on the Analysis of Changing Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olyazadeh, Roya; van Westen, Cees; Bakker, Wim H.; Aye, Zar Chi; Jaboyedoff, Michel; Derron, Marc-Henri

    2014-05-01

    Natural hazard risk management requires decision making in several stages. Decision making on alternatives for risk reduction planning starts with an intelligence phase for recognition of the decision problems and identifying the objectives. Development of the alternatives and assigning the variable by decision makers to each alternative are employed to the design phase. Final phase evaluates the optimal choice by comparing the alternatives, defining indicators, assigning a weight to each and ranking them. This process is referred to as Multi-Criteria Decision Making analysis (MCDM), Multi-Criteria Evaluation (MCE) or Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA). In the framework of the ongoing 7th Framework Program "CHANGES" (2011-2014, Grant Agreement No. 263953) of the European Commission, a Spatial Decision Support System is under development, that has the aim to analyse changes in hydro-meteorological risk and provide support to selecting the best risk reduction alternative. This paper describes the module for Multi-Criteria Decision Making analysis (MCDM) that incorporates monetary and non-monetary criteria in the analysis of the optimal alternative. The MCDM module consists of several components. The first step is to define criteria (or Indicators) which are subdivided into disadvantages (criteria that indicate the difficulty for implementing the risk reduction strategy, also referred to as Costs) and advantages (criteria that indicate the favorability, also referred to as benefits). In the next step the stakeholders can use the developed web-based tool for prioritizing criteria and decision matrix. Public participation plays a role in decision making and this is also planned through the use of a mobile web-version where the general local public can indicate their agreement on the proposed alternatives. The application is being tested through a case study related to risk reduction of a mountainous valley in the Alps affected by flooding. Four alternatives are evaluated in

  4. Hesitant fuzzy methods for multiple criteria decision analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Zhang, Xiaolu

    2017-01-01

    The book offers a comprehensive introduction to methods for solving multiple criteria decision making and group decision making problems with hesitant fuzzy information. It reports on the authors’ latest research, as well as on others’ research, providing readers with a complete set of decision making tools, such as hesitant fuzzy TOPSIS, hesitant fuzzy TODIM, hesitant fuzzy LINMAP, hesitant fuzzy QUALIFEX, and the deviation modeling approach with heterogeneous fuzzy information. The main focus is on decision making problems in which the criteria values and/or the weights of criteria are not expressed in crisp numbers but are more suitable to be denoted as hesitant fuzzy elements. The largest part of the book is devoted to new methods recently developed by the authors to solve decision making problems in situations where the available information is vague or hesitant. These methods are presented in detail, together with their application to different type of decision-making problems. All in all, the book ...

  5. SIDEKICK: Genomic data driven analysis and decision-making framework

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yoon Kihoon

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Scientists striving to unlock mysteries within complex biological systems face myriad barriers in effectively integrating available information to enhance their understanding. While experimental techniques and available data sources are rapidly evolving, useful information is dispersed across a variety of sources, and sources of the same information often do not use the same format or nomenclature. To harness these expanding resources, scientists need tools that bridge nomenclature differences and allow them to integrate, organize, and evaluate the quality of information without extensive computation. Results Sidekick, a genomic data driven analysis and decision making framework, is a web-based tool that provides a user-friendly intuitive solution to the problem of information inaccessibility. Sidekick enables scientists without training in computation and data management to pursue answers to research questions like "What are the mechanisms for disease X" or "Does the set of genes associated with disease X also influence other diseases." Sidekick enables the process of combining heterogeneous data, finding and maintaining the most up-to-date data, evaluating data sources, quantifying confidence in results based on evidence, and managing the multi-step research tasks needed to answer these questions. We demonstrate Sidekick's effectiveness by showing how to accomplish a complex published analysis in a fraction of the original time with no computational effort using Sidekick. Conclusions Sidekick is an easy-to-use web-based tool that organizes and facilitates complex genomic research, allowing scientists to explore genomic relationships and formulate hypotheses without computational effort. Possible analysis steps include gene list discovery, gene-pair list discovery, various enrichments for both types of lists, and convenient list manipulation. Further, Sidekick's ability to characterize pairs of genes offers new ways to

  6. Triplet superconductivity in oxide ferromagnetic interlayer of mesa-structure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ovsyannikov, G. A.; Y Constantinian, K.; Sheerman, A. E.; Shadrin, A. V.; Kislinski, Yu V.; Khaydukov, Yu N.; Mustafa, L.; Kalabukhov, A.; Winkler, D.

    2015-03-01

    We present experimental data on Nb-Au/La0.7Sr0.3MnO3/SrRuO3/YBa2Cu3O7-δ mesa- structure with in plane linear size 10÷50 μm. The mesa-structures were patterned from the epitaxial heterostructures fabricated by pulsed laser ablation and magnetron sputtering. Superconducting critical current was observed for mesa-structures with the interlayer thicknesses up to 50 nm. In the mesa-structures with just one, either La0.7Sr0.3MnO3 or SrRuO3 interlayer with a thickness larger than 10 nm no superconducting current was observed. The registered superconducting current for the mesa-structures with a thinner interlayer is attributed to pinholes. Obtained results are discussed in terms of superconducting long-range triplet generation at interfaces of superconductor and a composite ferromagnet consisting of ferromagnetic materials with non-collinear magnetization.

  7. Spatial Vegetation Data for Mesa Verde National Park Vegetation Mapping Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Park Service, Department of the Interior — The Mesa Verde National Park Vegetation Map Database was developed as a primary product in the Mesa Verde National Park Vegetation Classification, Distribution, and...

  8. Decentralisation of Health Services in Fiji: A Decision Space Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jalal Mohammed

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Background Decentralisation aims to bring services closer to the community and has been advocated in the health sector to improve quality, access and equity, and to empower local agencies, increase innovation and efficiency and bring healthcare and decision-making as close as possible to where people live and work. Fiji has attempted two approaches to decentralisation. The current approach reflects a model of deconcentration of outpatient services from the tertiary level hospital to the peripheral health centres in the Suva subdivision. Methods Using a modified decision space approach developed by Bossert, this study measures decision space created in five broad categories (finance, service organisation, human resources, access rules, and governance rules within the decentralised services. Results Fiji’s centrally managed historical-based allocation of financial resources and management of human resources resulted in no decision space for decentralised agents. Narrow decision space was created in the service organisation category where, with limited decision space created over access rules, Fiji has seen greater usage of its decentralised health centres. There remains limited decision space in governance. Conclusion The current wave of decentralisation reveals that, whilst the workload has shifted from the tertiary hospital to the peripheral health centres, it has been accompanied by limited transfer of administrative authority, suggesting that Fiji’s deconcentration reflects the transfer of workload only with decision-making in the five functional areas remaining largely centralised. As such, the benefits of decentralisation for users and providers are likely to be limited.

  9. Structure and analysis of IS decision-making processes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boonstra, A.

    2003-01-01

    Decisions to invest in information systems (IS) are made by many organisations on a very regular basis. Such decisions can vary from quickly identifying the problem, screening options and choosing a solution in a very straightforward way, to very extensive and repeated search, screen, design and neg

  10. Ethical analysis to improve decision-making on health technologies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Saarni, Samuli I; Hofmann, Bjørn; Lampe, Kristian

    2008-01-01

    Health technology assessment (HTA) is the multidisciplinary study of the implications of the development, diffusion and use of health technologies. It supports health-policy decisions by providing a joint knowledge base for decision-makers. To increase its policy relevance, HTA tries to extend be...

  11. Quntitative [i.e. Quantitative] analysis of risky decision making in economic environments

    OpenAIRE

    Andraszewicz, Sandra

    2014-01-01

    Risky economic decisions play an important role in everyone's life. This dissertation presents mathematical approaches to the analysis of these decisions. It discusses how statistical measures can describe properties of choice options, and how these properties can be used to describe the decision context. Also, this dissertation includes a practical tutorial on a Bayesian approach to the hierarchical regression analysis in management science. Therefore, the combined dissertation presents math...

  12. Simple estimation of fastest preferential contaminant travel times in the unsaturated zone: application to Rainier Mesa and Shoshone Mountain, Nevada

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. A. Ebel

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available Simulating contaminant transport in unsaturated zones with sparse hydraulic property information is a difficult, yet common, problem. When contaminant transport may occur via preferential flow, simple modeling approaches can provide predictions of interest, such as the first arrival of contaminant, with minimal site characterization. The conceptual model for unsaturated zone flow at two areas within the Nevada Test Site, Rainier Mesa and Shoshone Mountain, establishes the possibility of preferential flow through lithologies between potential radionuclide sources and the saturated zone. Lithology, saturated or near-saturated conditions in portions of the rock matrix, and relatively high recharge rates may act in concert at Rainier Mesa to promote preferential flow, despite the semi-arid climate. After identifying preferential flow as a possible contaminant transport process at Rainier Mesa and Shoshone Mountain, we apply a simple model to estimate fastest unsaturated travel times for conservatively-transported radionuclides to initially reach the saturated zone. Preferential flow travel times at Rainier Mesa are tens to hundreds of years for non-ponded water sources and one to two months for continuously-ponded water sources. If preferential flow occurs at Shoshone Mountain, the fastest travel times are approximately twice the Rainier Mesa estimates. A siliceous rock unit is present at Shoshone Mountain that may provide a barrier to preferential flow; if so, estimated transport times increase to more than a thousand years. Our analysis of unsaturated transport of radionuclides via preferential flow, using a relatively simple model, suggests that contaminated locations associated with continuously-supplied water sources, such as effluent ponds and water-filled tunnels, may have significantly shorter radionuclide travel times than locations not associated with such sources. The simple approach demonstrated here for estimating travel times can be

  13. Selection of invasive wild pig countermeasures using multicriteria decision analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brondum, Matthew C; Collier, Zachary A; Luke, Christopher S; Goatcher, Buddy L; Linkov, Igor

    2017-01-01

    Wild pigs are a widespread invasive species that pose significant environmental and social risks. A number of wild pig eradication and control measures exist, but many eradication campaigns are ultimately unsuccessful. Decision making regarding how to design and execute an eradication plan is difficult because of multiple costs and benefits spanning various decision criteria that are associated with different eradication and control countermeasures. Moreover, multiple stakeholders are often involved with differing and sometimes competing objectives, and wild pigs are adaptive adversaries, meaning that the ideal countermeasure may change over time. In this paper, we propose the use of formal decision analytic tools which can structure decision problems into a set of relevant criteria, countermeasures, and stakeholder preferences to facilitate the evaluation of tradeoffs. We operationalize this method in a simple Excel-based decision tool and conclude with a path forward regarding how to successfully implement such tools for effective wild pig control.

  14. Proizvodno - potrošna bilanca svinjskog mesa u Hrvatskoj

    OpenAIRE

    2015-01-01

    Proizvodnja i potrošnja svinjskog mesa u mnogim je državama značajan dio njihove ukupne proizvodnje i potrošnje prehrambenih proizvoda. Potražnju za svinjskim mesom određuje porast stanovništva i njihovih dohodaka, a proizvodnju još i cijena stočne hrane, prvenstveno kukuruza. Najviše se svinjskog mesa proizvodi u Aziji (57,4%), zatim Europi (23,6%) te Sjevernoj i Južnoj Americi (17,4%). Najznačajniji svjetski proizvođači svinjskog mesa su Kina (51%), Sjedinjene američke države (SAD) (9%) i N...

  15. Selection of Representative Models for Decision Analysis Under Uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meira, Luis A. A.; Coelho, Guilherme P.; Santos, Antonio Alberto S.; Schiozer, Denis J.

    2016-03-01

    The decision-making process in oil fields includes a step of risk analysis associated with the uncertainties present in the variables of the problem. Such uncertainties lead to hundreds, even thousands, of possible scenarios that are supposed to be analyzed so an effective production strategy can be selected. Given this high number of scenarios, a technique to reduce this set to a smaller, feasible subset of representative scenarios is imperative. The selected scenarios must be representative of the original set and also free of optimistic and pessimistic bias. This paper is devoted to propose an assisted methodology to identify representative models in oil fields. To do so, first a mathematical function was developed to model the representativeness of a subset of models with respect to the full set that characterizes the problem. Then, an optimization tool was implemented to identify the representative models of any problem, considering not only the cross-plots of the main output variables, but also the risk curves and the probability distribution of the attribute-levels of the problem. The proposed technique was applied to two benchmark cases and the results, evaluated by experts in the field, indicate that the obtained solutions are richer than those identified by previously adopted manual approaches. The program bytecode is available under request.

  16. Additive Representations of Preferences, A New Foundation of Decision Analysis; The Algebraic Approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    P.P. Wakker (Peter)

    1991-01-01

    textabstractIn Wakker (1989, "Additive Representations of Preferences, A New Foundation of Decision Analysis"), a new foundation of decision analysis was given. The main tool was a way to derive comparisons of "tradeoffs" from ordinal preferences, with comparisons of tradeoffs revealing orderings of

  17. Additive reprensentations of preferences, a new foundation of decision analysis: the algebraic approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wakker, P.P.; Doignon, J.P.; Falmagne, J.C.

    1991-01-01

    In Wakker (1989, "Additive Representations of Preferences, A New Foundation of Decision Analysis"), a new foundation of decision analysis was given. The main tool was a way to derive comparisons of "tradeoffs" from ordinal preferences, with comparisons of tradeoffs revealing orderings of utility dif

  18. REVASCULARIZATION FOR FEMOROPOPLITEAL DISEASE - A DECISION AND COST-EFFECTIVENESS ANALYSIS

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    HUNINK, MGM; WONG, JB; DONALDSON, MC; MEYEROVITZ, MF; DEVRIES, J; HARRINGTON, DP

    1995-01-01

    Objective.-To evaluate the relative benefits and cost-effectiveness of revascularization for femoropopliteal disease using percutaneous transluminal angioplasty or bypass surgery. Design.-Decision analysis using a multistate transition simulation model (Markov process) and cost-effectiveness analysi

  19. Hit-And-Run enables efficient weight generation for simulation-based multiple criteria decision analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tervonen, Tommi; van Valkenhoef, Gert; Basturk, Nalan; Postmus, Douwe

    2013-01-01

    Models for Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) often separate per-criterion attractiveness evaluation from weighted aggregation of these evaluations across the different criteria. In simulation-based MCDA methods, such as Stochastic Multicriteria Acceptability Analysis, uncertainty in the wei

  20. An analysis of symbolic linguistic computing models in decision making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodríguez, Rosa M.; Martínez, Luis

    2013-01-01

    It is common that experts involved in complex real-world decision problems use natural language for expressing their knowledge in uncertain frameworks. The language is inherent vague, hence probabilistic decision models are not very suitable in such cases. Therefore, other tools such as fuzzy logic and fuzzy linguistic approaches have been successfully used to model and manage such vagueness. The use of linguistic information implies to operate with such a type of information, i.e. processes of computing with words (CWW). Different schemes have been proposed to deal with those processes, and diverse symbolic linguistic computing models have been introduced to accomplish the linguistic computations. In this paper, we overview the relationship between decision making and CWW, and focus on symbolic linguistic computing models that have been widely used in linguistic decision making to analyse if all of them can be considered inside of the CWW paradigm.

  1. Traffic Accident Analysis Using Decision Trees and Neural Networks

    OpenAIRE

    Chong, Miao M.; Abraham, Ajith; Paprzycki, Marcin

    2004-01-01

    The costs of fatalities and injuries due to traffic accident have a great impact on society. This paper presents our research to model the severity of injury resulting from traffic accidents using artificial neural networks and decision trees. We have applied them to an actual data set obtained from the National Automotive Sampling System (NASS) General Estimates System (GES). Experiment results reveal that in all the cases the decision tree outperforms the neural network. Our research analys...

  2. Clinical decision support tools: analysis of online drug information databases

    OpenAIRE

    Seamon Matthew J; Polen Hyla H; Marsh Wallace A; Clauson Kevin A; Ortiz Blanca I

    2007-01-01

    Abstract Background Online drug information databases are used to assist in enhancing clinical decision support. However, the choice of which online database to consult, purchase or subscribe to is likely made based on subjective elements such as history of use, familiarity, or availability during professional training. The purpose of this study was to evaluate clinical decision support tools for drug information by systematically comparing the most commonly used online drug information datab...

  3. Applying Recursive Sensitivity Analysis to Multi-Criteria Decision Models to Reduce Bias in Defense Cyber Engineering Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-10-28

    Considerable research has been conducted on the topic of decision aiding methods such as Multi -criteria and Multi - objective Decision Analysis to...the best compromise solution amongst multiple or infinite possibilities. This is generally known as Multi - Objective Decision Making (MODM). For the...from those of the program manager, resource sponsor, or even the user. This research focuses on the use of recursive sensitivity analysis to mitigate

  4. Factors influencing first childbearing timing decisions among men: Path analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kariman, Nourossadat; Amerian, Maliheh; Jannati, Padideh; Salmani, Fatemeh

    2016-01-01

    Background: Factors that influence men’s childbearing intentions have been relatively unexplored in the literature. Objective: This study aimed to determine the influencing factors about the first childbearing timing decisions of men. Materials and Methods: In this cross-sectional study, 300 men who were referred to private and governmental healthcare centers in Shahrood, Iran were randomly recruited from April to September 2014. Data were collected using a demographic questionnaire, the Quality of Life Questionnaire; ENRICH Marital Satisfaction Questionnaire, Synder’s Hope Scale, and the Multidimensional Scale of Perceived Social Support. Results: After removing the statistically insignificant paths, men’s age at marriage had the highest direct effect (β=0.86) on their first childbearing decision. Marital satisfaction (β=-0.09), social support (β=0.06), economic status (β=0.06), and quality of life (β=-0.08) were other effective factors on men’s first childbearing decisions. Moreover, marital satisfaction and social support had significant indirect effects on men’s childbearing decisions (β=-0.04 and -0.01, respectively). Conclusion: Many factors, including personal factors (age at marriage and quality of life), family factors (marital satisfaction), and social factors (social support), can affect men’s decision to have a child. Policymakers are hence required to develop strategies to promote the socioeconomic and family conditions of the couples and to encourage them to have as many children as they desire at an appropriate time. PMID:27738661

  5. Distributed-sensor-system decision analysis using team strategies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choe, Howard C.; Kazakos, Demetrios

    1992-11-01

    A distributed (or decentralized) multiple sensor system is considered under binary hypothesis environments. The system is deployed with a host sensor (HS) and multiple slave sensors (SSs). All sensors have their own independent decision makers which are capable of declaring local decisions based solely on their own observation of the environment. The communication between the HS and the SSs is conditional upon the HS's command. Each communication that takes place involves a communication cost which plays an important role in the approaches taken in this study. The conditional communication with the cost initiates the team strategy in making the final decisions at the HS. The objectives are not only to apply the team strategy method in the decision making process, but also to minimize the expected system cost (or the probability of error in making decisions) by optimizing thresholds in the HS> The analytical expression of the expected system cost (C) is numerically evaluated for Gaussian statistics over threshold locations in the HS to find an optimal threshold location for a given communication cost. The computer simulations of various sensor systems for Gaussian observations are also performed in order to understand the behavior of each system with respect to correct detections, false, alarms, and target misses.

  6. Distributed sensor system decision analysis using team strategies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choe, Howard C.; Kazakos, Dimitri

    1991-07-01

    A distributed (or decentralized) multiple sensor system is considered under binary hypothesis environments. The system is deployed with a host sensor and multiple slave sensors. All sensors have their own independent decision makers (DM) which are capable of declaring local decisions based only on their own observation of the environment. The communication between the host sensor (HS) and the slave sensors (SS) is conditional upon the host sensor's command. Each communication that takes place involves a communication cost which plays an important role in approaches taken in this study. The conditional communication with cost initiates the team strategy in making the final decisions at the host sensor. The objectives are not only to apply the team strategy method in the decision making process, but also to minimize the expected system cost (or the probability or error in making decisions) by optimizing thresholds in the host sensor. The analytical expression of the expected system cost is numerically evaluated for Gaussian statistics over threshold locations in the host sensor to find an optimal threshold location for a given communication cost. The computer simulations of various sensor systems for Gaussian observations are also performed to understand the behavior of each system with respect to correct detections, false alarms, and target misses.

  7. Endogenous Risks and Learning in Climate Change Decision Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    O' Neill, B.C.; Ermoliev, Y.; Ermolieva, T.

    2005-10-05

    We analyze the effects of risks and learning on climate change decisions. A two-stage, dynamic, climate change stabilization problem is formulated. The explicit incorporation of ex-post learning induces risk aversion among ex-ante decisions, which is characterized in linear models by VaR- (Value at Risk) and CVaR-type risk (Conditional Value at Risk) measures. Combined with explicit introduction of 'safety' constraints, it creates a 'hit-or-miss' type decision making situation and shows that, even in linear models, learning may lead to either less or more restrictive ex-ante emission reductions. We analyze stylized elements of the model in order to identify the key factors driving outcomes, in particular, the critical role of quantiles of probability distributions characterizing key uncertainties.

  8. An Information Theoretic Analysis of Decision in Computer Chess

    CERN Document Server

    Godescu, Alexandru

    2011-01-01

    The basis of the method proposed in this article is the idea that information is one of the most important factors in strategic decisions, including decisions in computer chess and other strategy games. The model proposed in this article and the algorithm described are based on the idea of a information theoretic basis of decision in strategy games . The model generalizes and provides a mathematical justification for one of the most popular search algorithms used in leading computer chess programs, the fractional ply scheme. However, despite its success in leading computer chess applications, until now few has been published about this method. The article creates a fundamental basis for this method in the axioms of information theory, then derives the principles used in programming the search and describes mathematically the form of the coefficients. One of the most important parameters of the fractional ply search is derived from fundamental principles. Until now this coefficient has been usually handcrafted...

  9. 75 FR 58374 - 2010 Release of CADDIS (Causal Analysis/Diagnosis Decision Information System)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-09-24

    ... AGENCY 2010 Release of CADDIS (Causal Analysis/Diagnosis Decision Information System) AGENCY... Decision Information System (CADDIS). This Web site was developed to help scientists find, develop... information useful for causal evaluations in aquatic systems. CADDIS is based on EPA's Stressor...

  10. NATO Guide for Judgement-Based Operational Analysis in Defence Decision Making : Client-Oriented Volume

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wijnmalen, D.J.D.; et al

    2012-01-01

    Judgment plays an important role in all Operational Analysis (OA). NATO practitioners have determined that approaches in OA that are based on human judgement are increasingly critical to defence decision making. The purpose of the NATO Guide for Judgement-Based OA in Defence Decision Making is to cr

  11. NATO Guide for Judgement-Based Operational Analysis in Defence Decision Making : Executive Leaflet

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wijnmalen, D.J.D.; et al

    2012-01-01

    Judgment plays an important role in all Operational Analysis (OA). NATO practitioners have determined that approaches in OA that are based on human judgement are increasingly critical to defence decision making. The purpose of the NATO Guide for Judgement-Based OA in Defence Decision Making is to cr

  12. A Meta-Analysis of Blood Glucose Effects on Human Decision Making

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Orquin, Jacob L.; Kurzban, Robert

    2016-01-01

    The academic and public interest in blood glucose and its relationship to decision making has been increasing over the last decade. To investigate and evaluate competing theories about this relationship, we conducted a psychometric meta-analysis on the effect of blood glucose on decision making. ...

  13. Análise de correspondência como instrumento para descrição do perfil do trabalhador da cultura de tomate de mesa em Goiás The correspondence analysis as instrument to analyze the profile of the worker in the tomato crop in the Goiás state, Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sueli Martins Freitas Alves

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available O cultivo do tomate de mesa em Goiás está estruturado numa proposta tecnológica baseada no uso intensivo de agrotóxicos, o que envolve riscos e danos potenciais à saúde dos trabalhadores. O objetivo deste trabalho foi utilizar a Análise de Correspondência Múltipla (ACM para explorar a perfil do trabalhador da cultura de tomate de mesa quanto ao uso de agrotóxicos. Para isso, foram obtidas informações sobre fatores socioeconômicos e demográficos, percepção de risco, uso de agrotóxicos, uso de equipamento de proteção individual (EPI e morbidade referida, por meio de questionário respondido por 96 trabalhadores da cultura de tomate de mesa, em seis municípios do Estado de Goiás. A Análise de Correspondência Múltipla (ACM possibilitou definir três grupos de trabalhadores. No grupo 1, os que responderam que já se intoxicaram com agrotóxicos e não usam EPI porque dificulta o trabalho ou porque não têm costume. No grupo 2, os que responderam que não se intoxicaram com agrotóxico relataram que usam somente algum tipo de EPI porque os consideram desconfortáveis ou por outros motivos. No grupo 3, os que relataram usar EPI completo e que moram em barracas de lona na lavoura de tomate. Foi possível fazer correspondência entre as modalidades da pesquisa, o que não seria possível com o uso de estatística descritiva.The tomato cropping in the Goiás state is structured under a technological proposal based on the intensive use of pesticides, which involves risks and potential damages to the workers' health. This study aimed to use the Multiple Correspondence Analysis (ACM to explore the worker's profile concerning to the use of pesticides in tomato crop. So, information about the socioeconomic and demographic factors, risk perception, pesticide uses, use of individual protection equipment (EPI and referred morbidity were obtained, by using a questionnaire applied to 96 workers in tomato crop, in six counties at the State

  14. A decision analysis approach to climate adaptation: comparing multiple pathways for multi-decadal decision making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, B. B.; Little, L.

    2013-12-01

    Policy planners around the world are required to consider the implications of adapting to climatic change across spatial contexts and decadal timeframes. However, local level information for planning is often poorly defined, even though climate adaptation decision-making is made at this scale. This is especially true when considering sea level rise and coastal impacts of climate change. We present a simple approach using sea level rise simulations paired with adaptation scenarios to assess a range of adaptation options available to local councils dealing with issues of beach recession under present and future sea level rise and storm surge. Erosion and beach recession pose a large socioeconomic risk to coastal communities because of the loss of key coastal infrastructure. We examine the well-known adaptation technique of beach nourishment and assess various timings and amounts of beach nourishment at decadal time spans in relation to beach recession impacts. The objective was to identify an adaptation strategy that would allow for a low frequency of management interventions, the maintenance of beach width, and the ability to minimize variation in beach width over the 2010 to 2100 simulation period. 1000 replications of each adaptation option were produced against the 90 year simulation in order to model the ability each adaptation option to achieve the three key objectives. Three sets of adaptation scenarios were identified. Within each scenario, a number of adaptation options were tested. The three scenarios were: 1) Fixed periodic beach replenishment of specific amounts at 20 and 50 year intervals, 2) Beach replenishment to the initial beach width based on trigger levels of recession (5m, 10m, 20m), and 3) Fixed period beach replenishment of a variable amount at decadal intervals (every 10, 20, 30, 40, 50 years). For each adaptation option, we show the effectiveness of each beach replenishment scenario to maintain beach width and consider the implications of more

  15. Ethanol or Biodiesel? A Systems-Analysis Decision

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dinan, Frank; Stabler, Tom

    2008-01-01

    This case study stresses the need to broadly consider an entire system, including all of the energy inputs and outputs involved, to determine the real efficiency of that system. It also asks its student audience to consider the role that scientific input plays in policy decision-making processes. It emphasizes that, despite the importance of this…

  16. Managerial Analysis and Decision Support: A Guidebook and Case Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    National Association of College and University Business Officers (NJ3), 2004

    2004-01-01

    Developed and edited by the National Association of College and University Business Officers' (NACUBO's) Accounting Principles Council, this guidebook, written by highly experienced, seasoned college and university leaders, is designed to help readers make sense of today's world and provide the right tools to make the right decisions. The book,…

  17. Description-based and experience-based decisions: individual analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrey Kudryavtsev

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available We analyze behavior in two basic classes of decision tasks: description-based and experience-based. In particular, we compare the prediction power of a number of decision learning models in both kinds of tasks. Unlike most previous studies, we focus on individual, rather than aggregate, behavioral characteristics. We carry out an experiment involving a battery of both description- and experience-based choices between two mixed binary prospects made by each of the participants, and employ a number of formal models for explaining and predicting participants' choices: Prospect theory (PT (Kahneman and Tversky, 1979; Expectancy-Valence model (EVL (Busemeyer and Stout, 2002; and three combinations of these well-established models. We document that the PT and the EVL models are best for predicting people's decisions in description- and experience-based tasks, respectively, which is not surprising as these two models are designed specially for these kinds of tasks. Furthermore, we find that models involving linear weighting of gains and losses perform better in both kinds of tasks, from the point of view of generalizability and individual parameter consistency. We therefore, conclude that, overall, when both prospects are mixed, the assumption of diminishing sensitivity does not improve models' prediction power for individual decision-makers. Finally, for some of the models' parameters, we document consistency at the individual level between description- and experience-based tasks.

  18. Situated Analysis of Team Handball Players' Decisions: An Exploratory Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lenzen, Benoit; Theunissen, Catherine; Cloes, Marc

    2009-01-01

    This exploratory study aimed to investigate elements involved in decision making in team handball live situations and to provide coaches and educators with teaching recommendations. The study was positioned within the framework of the situated-action paradigm of which two aspects were of particular interest for this project: (a) the relationship…

  19. The Role of Research and Analysis in Resource Allocation Decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lea, Dennis; Polster, Patty Poppe

    2011-01-01

    In a time of diminishing resources and increased accountability, it is important for school leaders to make the most of every dollar they spend. One approach to ensuring responsible resource allocation is to closely examine the organizational culture surrounding decision making and provide a structure and process to incorporate research and data…

  20. Decision analysis interviews on protective actions in Finland supported by the RODOS system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Haemaelaeinen, R.P.; Lindstedt, M. [Helsinki Univ. of Technology, Otaniemi (Finland). System Analysis Lab.; Sinkko, K.; Ammann, M. [Radiation and Nuclear Safety Authority, Helsinki (Finland); Salo, A. [Lepolantie 54, Helsinki (Finland)

    2000-03-01

    This work was undertaken in order to study the utilisation of decision analysis interviews and of the RODOS system when planning protective actions in the case of a nuclear accident. Six decision analysis interview meetings were organised. Interviewees were competent national safety authorities and technical level decision-makers, i.e., those who are responsible for drawing up advice or making presentations of matters to decision-makers responsible for the practical implementation of the actions. The theme of the meetings was to study how uncertainties could be included in the decision-making process and whether pre-structured generic attributes and value trees would help this process and save time. The approach was to present a generic value tree, a decision table and a selected information package at the beginning of the interviews. The interviewees then examined the suggested value tree in order to ensure that no important factors have been omitted and they made changes when necessary. Also, the decision table was examined and altered by some participants and some of them asked for further information on some issues. But all in all the selected approach allowed for more time and effort to be allocated to value trade-offs and elicitation of risk attitudes. All information was calculated with the support of the RODOS system. Predefined value trees were found to ensure that all relevant factors are considered. The participants also felt that RODOS could provide the required information but, as in previous RODOS exercises, they found it more problematic to use decision analysis methods when planning countermeasures in the early phase of a nuclear accident. Furthermore, it was again noted that understanding the actual meaning 'soft' attributes, such as socio-psychological impacts, was not a straightforward issue. Consequently, the definition of attributes and training in advance would be beneficial. The incorporation of uncertainties also proved to be

  1. Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis for Health Care Decision Making--An Introduction: Report 1 of the ISPOR MCDA Emerging Good Practices Task Force.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thokala, Praveen; Devlin, Nancy; Marsh, Kevin; Baltussen, Rob; Boysen, Meindert; Kalo, Zoltan; Longrenn, Thomas; Mussen, Filip; Peacock, Stuart; Watkins, John; Ijzerman, Maarten

    2016-01-01

    Health care decisions are complex and involve confronting trade-offs between multiple, often conflicting, objectives. Using structured, explicit approaches to decisions involving multiple criteria can improve the quality of decision making and a set of techniques, known under the collective heading multiple criteria decision analysis (MCDA), are useful for this purpose. MCDA methods are widely used in other sectors, and recently there has been an increase in health care applications. In 2014, ISPOR established an MCDA Emerging Good Practices Task Force. It was charged with establishing a common definition for MCDA in health care decision making and developing good practice guidelines for conducting MCDA to aid health care decision making. This initial ISPOR MCDA task force report provides an introduction to MCDA - it defines MCDA; provides examples of its use in different kinds of decision making in health care (including benefit risk analysis, health technology assessment, resource allocation, portfolio decision analysis, shared patient clinician decision making and prioritizing patients' access to services); provides an overview of the principal methods of MCDA; and describes the key steps involved. Upon reviewing this report, readers should have a solid overview of MCDA methods and their potential for supporting health care decision making.

  2. How to use multi-criteria decision analysis methods for reimbursement decision-making in healthcare: a step-by-step guide.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diaby, Vakaramoko; Goeree, Ron

    2014-02-01

    In recent years, the quest for more comprehensiveness, structure and transparency in reimbursement decision-making in healthcare has prompted the research into alternative decision-making frameworks. In this environment, multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is arising as a valuable tool to support healthcare decision-making. In this paper, we present the main MCDA decision support methods (elementary methods, value-based measurement models, goal programming models and outranking models) using a case study approach. For each family of methods, an example of how an MCDA model would operate in a real decision-making context is presented from a critical perspective, highlighting the parameters setting, the selection of the appropriate evaluation model as well as the role of sensitivity and robustness analyses. This study aims to provide a step-by-step guide on how to use MCDA methods for reimbursement decision-making in healthcare.

  3. Assessing Hydraulic Connections Across Structural Blocks, Pahute Mesa, Nevada—Detecting Distant Drawdowns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia, C.; Fenelon, J. M.; Halford, K. J.; Sweetkind, D. S.

    2010-12-01

    Groundwater beneath Pahute Mesa flows through a complexly layered sequence of volcanic-rock aquifers and confining units that have been faulted into distinct structural blocks. Hydraulic properties of the rocks and structures in this aquifer system control radionuclide migration away from areas of underground testing. Detecting drawdowns in observation wells that penetrate a structural block different from the structural block intersected by the pumping well provides irrefutable evidence of a hydraulic connection. However, detecting these pumping-induced changes in water-level records typical of Pahute Mesa can be problematic because environmental noise frequently exceeds the pumping signal. Therefore, inherent noise must be removed from the water-level record systematically before pumping-induced drawdown and subsequent recovery can be quantified and analyzed. Successful applications of this approach on Pahute Mesa are illustrated using water-level records acquired during selected periods of recent drilling, development, testing, and pumping. Continuous monitoring of water level and air pressure changes in two dozen wells reveal moderate and high frequency stresses such as barometric pressure and earth tides along with gradual water-level changes induced by well drilling, development, and testing. At distances of nearly 4 km from pumping stresses, drawdown and recovery responses of less than 0.02 m can be detected using a synthetic water-level analysis. Synthetic water-levels are the summation of barometric, tidal, and pumping responses and water levels from background wells that are fit to measured water levels in remote observation wells. Pumping responses are simulated by superposition of Theis solutions. Differences between synthetic and measured water levels are minimized by adjusting the amplitude and phase of non-pumping components, while the transmissivity and storage coefficient are estimated from the pumping responses.

  4. Using Multicriteria Decision Analysis to Support Research Priority Setting in Biomedical Translational Research Projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gimon de Graaf

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Translational research is conducted to achieve a predefined set of economic or societal goals. As a result, investment decisions on where available resources have the highest potential in achieving these goals have to be made. In this paper, we first describe how multicriteria decision analysis can assist in defining the decision context and in ensuring that all relevant aspects of the decision problem are incorporated in the decision making process. We then present the results of a case study to support priority setting in a translational research consortium aimed at reducing the burden of disease of type 2 diabetes. During problem structuring, we identified four research alternatives (primary, secondary, tertiary microvascular, and tertiary macrovascular prevention and a set of six decision criteria. Scoring of these alternatives against the criteria was done using a combination of expert judgement and previously published data. Lastly, decision analysis was performed using stochastic multicriteria acceptability analysis, which allows for the combined use of numerical and ordinal data. We found that the development of novel techniques applied in secondary prevention would be a poor investment of research funds. The ranking of the remaining alternatives was however strongly dependent on the decision maker’s preferences for certain criteria.

  5. Il Risk Management nei progetti di investimento attraverso la Multi Criteria Decision Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elena Fregonara

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available Usually, we consider Multi Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA as a deterministic approach to support complex decisions, which involve multidisciplinary profiles. Furthermore, risk analysis is considered as an integral part of investments analysis, also in a probabilistic version. In this work, we are going to explore the applicability of probabilistic MCDA in supporting risk analysis practices (as a part of project management activities, in economic feasibility evaluation of the real estate investment projects. It is assumed a management approach based on adaptive approach instead of optimization approach; to operate in context characterized by the presence of risk/uncertainty components; that these components are able to perturb decision processes and strategic choices, conditioned by subjectivity/uncertainty of stakeholders and institutions in judgement definition phase (decision maker’s utility functions, criterion scores, ranking of alternatives, etc..

  6. California solar energy study: decision-analysis panel report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Margolin, J.B.; Misch, M.R.

    1979-09-01

    In order to investigate motivations behind an individual's decision to purchase or not to purchase a solar energy system for a home, the California Energy Commission initiated a comprehensive survey program to analyze, in some depth, attitudes toward solar energy use. As part of that program, the CEC contracted for a series of panels comprised of homogenous groups of individuals who were not solar adopters, to probe for underlying attitudes about solar and, through the group dynamics process, elicit information which generally cannot be obtained using a standard questionnaire. The results shed additional light on consumer perceptions about the energy situation, the solar industry, economics, government's role and acceptance of the technology which, in turn, affect the individual's decision to adopt or not to adopt a solar energy device.

  7. When values conflict. Essays on environmental analysis, discourse, and decision

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tribe, L.H.; Schelling, C.S.; Voss, J. (eds.)

    1976-01-01

    One of the most perplexing tasks that decision makers face is weighing conflicting values, and in particular doing so with adequate sensitivity to 'fragile' values such as esthetic or other intangible concerns. In this series of essays a physicist, a lawyer, a philosopher, an engineer, a sociologist and two economists address this problem in the environmental context, with special attention to the relationship between man and his natural surroundings. Each author has drawn upon his own expertise, experience and perceptions in order to clarify the conceptual as well as the institutional issues involved. The essays analyze how values have been dealt with in environmental decisions and suggest ways in which they might be handled with greater sensitivity. This volume may be looked upon as one step in remedying the 'failure of discourse' which is seen as a major factor in the difficulty our society experiences in dealing with value conflicts in policy areas.

  8. Second-Order Risk Constraints in Decision Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Love Ekenberg

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Recently, representations and methods aimed at analysing decision problems where probabilities and values (utilities are associated with distributions over them (second-order representations have been suggested. In this paper we present an approach to how imprecise information can be modelled by means of second-order distributions and how a risk evaluation process can be elaborated by integrating procedures for numerically imprecise probabilities and utilities. We discuss some shortcomings of the use of the principle of maximising the expected utility and of utility theory in general, and offer remedies by the introduction of supplementary decision rules based on a concept of risk constraints taking advantage of second-order distributions.

  9. The analysis of the pilot's cognitive and decision processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Curry, R. E.

    1975-01-01

    Articles are presented on pilot performance in zero-visibility precision approach, failure detection by pilots during automatic landing, experiments in pilot decision-making during simulated low visibility approaches, a multinomial maximum likelihood program, and a random search algorithm for laboratory computers. Other topics discussed include detection of system failures in multi-axis tasks and changes in pilot workload during an instrument landing.

  10. Doubly Bayesian Analysis of Confidence in Perceptual Decision-Making.

    OpenAIRE

    Aitchison, L.; Bang, D; Bahrami, B.; Latham, P.E.

    2015-01-01

    Humans stand out from other animals in that they are able to explicitly report on the reliability of their internal operations. This ability, which is known as metacognition, is typically studied by asking people to report their confidence in the correctness of some decision. However, the computations underlying confidence reports remain unclear. In this paper, we present a fully Bayesian method for directly comparing models of confidence. Using a visual two-interval forced-choice task, we te...

  11. The potential use of decision analysis to support shared decision making in the face of uncertainty: the example of atrial fibrillation and warfarin anticoagulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinson, A; Thomson, R G

    2000-12-01

    The quality of patient care is dependent upon the quality of the multitude of decisions that are made daily in clinical practice. Increasingly, modern health care is seeking to pursue better decisions (including an emphasis on evidence-based practice) and to engage patients more in decisions on their care. However, many treatment decisions are made in the face of clinical uncertainty and may be critically dependent upon patient preferences. This has led to attempts to develop decision support tools that enable patients and clinicians to make better decisions. One approach that may be of value is decision analysis, which seeks to create a rational framework for evaluating complex medical decisions and to provide a systematic way of integrating potential outcomes with probabilistic information such as that generated by randomised controlled trials of interventions. This paper describes decision analysis and discusses the potential of this approach with reference to the clinical decision as to whether to treat patients in atrial fibrillation with warfarin to reduce their risk of stroke.

  12. Health care priority setting in Norway a multicriteria decision analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Defechereux Thierry

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Priority setting in population health is increasingly based on explicitly formulated values. The Patients Rights Act of the Norwegian tax-based health service guaranties all citizens health care in case of a severe illness, a proven health benefit, and proportionality between need and treatment. This study compares the values of the country's health policy makers with these three official principles. Methods In total 34 policy makers participated in a discrete choice experiment, weighting the relative value of six policy criteria. We used multi-variate logistic regression with selection as dependent valuable to derive odds ratios for each criterion. Next, we constructed a composite league table - based on the sum score for the probability of selection - to rank potential interventions in five major disease areas. Results The group considered cost effectiveness, large individual benefits and severity of disease as the most important criteria in decision making. Priority interventions are those related to cardiovascular diseases and respiratory diseases. Less attractive interventions rank those related to mental health. Conclusions Norwegian policy makers' values are in agreement with principles formulated in national health laws. Multi-criteria decision approaches may provide a tool to support explicit allocation decisions.

  13. Decision Styles and Rationality: An Analysis of the Predictive Validity of the General Decision-Making Style Inventory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Curseu, Petru Lucian; Schruijer, Sandra G. L.

    2012-01-01

    This study investigates the relationship between the five decision-making styles evaluated by the General Decision-Making Style Inventory, indecisiveness, and rationality in decision making. Using a sample of 102 middle-level managers, the results show that the rational style positively predicts rationality in decision making and negatively…

  14. PENGARUH SUHU DAN LAMA PROSES SULFONASI DALAM PROSES PRODUKSI METHYL ESTER SULFONIC ACID (MESA MENGGUNAKAN SINGLE TUBE FALLING FILM REACTOR (STFR

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Siti Mujdalipah

    2013-03-01

    /cm menjadi 3 dyne/cm.Kata kunci: EOR, MESA, olein sawit, sulfonasi, STFR ABSTRACT Methyl Ester Sulfonic Acid (MESA is an intermediate product of Methyl Etser Sulfonate (MES. MES has manyapplications for personal care products, washing and cleaning products, and Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR. MESA production using SO3 in Single Tube Falling Film Reactor (STFR is a common practice. This study was aimed to getthe best condition of methyl esters (ME sulfonation process from palm olein using SO3 gas in STFR. The study wasdone in three stages which were production activities, analysis, and data processing. Research activities consisted ofproduction process of methyl esters from palm olein and studying of temperature and sulfonation time effects towardME sulfonation process using STFR. Analysis stage include analysis of physico chemical properties of palm olein,analysis of physico chemical properties of methyl esters, and analysis of physico chemical properties of MESA. Tostudy the effect of temperature and sulfonation time toward ME sulfonation process, temperatures of 70, 90, and 110

  15. LANL Institutional Decision Support By Process Modeling and Analysis Group (AET-2)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Booth, Steven Richard [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2016-04-04

    AET-2 has expertise in process modeling, economics, business case analysis, risk assessment, Lean/Six Sigma tools, and decision analysis to provide timely decision support to LANS leading to continuous improvement. This capability is critical during the current tight budgetary environment as LANS pushes to identify potential areas of cost savings and efficiencies. An important arena is business systems and operations, where processes can impact most or all laboratory employees. Lab-wide efforts are needed to identify and eliminate inefficiencies to accomplish Director McMillan’s charge of “doing more with less.” LANS faces many critical and potentially expensive choices that require sound decision support to ensure success. AET-2 is available to provide this analysis support to expedite the decisions at hand.

  16. Using the method of judgement analysis to address variations in diagnostic decision making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hancock Helen C

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Heart failure is not a clear-cut diagnosis but a complex clinical syndrome with consequent diagnostic uncertainty. Judgment analysis is a method to help clinical teams to understand how they make complex decisions. The method of judgment analysis was used to determine the factors that influence clinicians' diagnostic decisions about heart failure. Methods Three consultants, three middle grade doctors, and two junior doctors each evaluated 45 patient scenarios. The main outcomes were: clinicians' decisions whether or not to make a diagnosis of suspected heart failure; the relative importance of key factors within and between clinician groups in making these decisions, and the acceptability of the scenarios. Results The method was able to discriminate between important and unimportant factors in clinicians' diagnostic decisions. Junior and consultant physicians tended to use patient information similarly, although junior doctors placed particular weight on the chest X-Ray. Middle-grade doctors tended to use information differently but their diagnostic decisions agreed with consultants more frequently (k = 0.47 than junior doctors and consultants (k = 0.23, or middle grade and junior grade doctors (k = 0.10. Conclusions Judgment analysis is a potentially valuable method to assess influences upon diagnostic decisions, helping clinicians to manage the quality assurance process through evaluation of care and continuing professional development.

  17. Econometric Analysis of Bulk Shipping: implications for investment strategies and financial decision-making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    S. Tsolakis

    2005-01-01

    textabstractThis thesis provides an econometric analysis of the bulk shipping markets and the implications for shipping investment and financial decision making. Chapter 1 sets the scene by providing a historic analysis of bulk shipping markets over the last 55 years. From this analysis, four shipp

  18. An Analysis on Performance of Decision Tree Algorithms using Student’s Qualitative Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T.Miranda Lakshmi

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Decision Tree is the most widely applied supervised classification technique. The learning and classification steps of decision tree induction are simple and fast and it can be applied to any domain. In this research student qualitative data has been taken from educational data mining and the performance analysis of the decision tree algorithm ID3, C4.5 and CART are compared. The comparison result shows that the Gini Index of CART influence information Gain Ratio of ID3 and C4.5. The classification accuracy of CART is higher when compared to ID3 and C4.5. However the difference in classification accuracy between the decision tree algorithms is not considerably higher. The experimental results of decision tree indicate that student’s performance also influenced by qualitative factors.

  19. Congreso www.derechotics.com 2010 Pedro Grimalt Mesa 2

    OpenAIRE

    Cotino Hueso, Lorenzo

    2010-01-01

    Responsabilidad civil por contenidos en la red: LSSICE y Ley de Prensa y responsabilidad por hecho ajeno, por Pedro Grimalt, Profesor titular de Derecho civil de la U. de les Illes Balears.Mesa 2: Control y responsabilidad en la redCongreso www.derechotics.com Valencia, 14-15 octubre 2010 Libertades informativas en internet: ejercicio, amenazas y garantías, Lorenzo Cotino (org.)

  20. Precision Measurement of sin2(theta_w) at MESA

    CERN Document Server

    Bucoveanu, R; Spiesberger, H

    2016-01-01

    A forthcoming experiment of low-energy elastic electron proton scattering at the new MESA facility in Mainz is planned to provide a high-precision measurement of the parity-violating polarisation asymmetry. This experiment is expected to lead to a precision determination of the weak mixing angle, competitive with Z-pole data. We discuss the challenges for theory to derive predictions with the required accuracy.

  1. A meta-analysis of blood glucose effects on human decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orquin, Jacob L; Kurzban, Robert

    2016-05-01

    The academic and public interest in blood glucose and its relationship to decision making has been increasing over the last decade. To investigate and evaluate competing theories about this relationship, we conducted a psychometric meta-analysis on the effect of blood glucose on decision making. We identified 42 studies relating to 4 dimensions of decision making: willingness to pay, willingness to work, time discounting, and decision style. We did not find a uniform influence of blood glucose on decision making. Instead, we found that low levels of blood glucose increase the willingness to pay and willingness to work when a situation is food related, but decrease willingness to pay and work in all other situations. Low levels of blood glucose increase the future discount rate for food; that is, decision makers become more impatient, and to a lesser extent increase the future discount rate for money. Low levels of blood glucose also increase the tendency to make more intuitive rather than deliberate decisions. However, this effect was only observed in situations unrelated to food. We conclude that blood glucose has domain-specific effects, influencing decision making differently depending on the relevance of the situation to acquiring food. (PsycINFO Database Record

  2. Modules for Experiments in Stellar Astrophysics (MESA): Binaries, Pulsations, and Explosions

    CERN Document Server

    Paxton, Bill; Schwab, Josiah; Bauer, Evan B; Bildsten, Lars; Cantiello, Matteo; Dessart, Luc; Farmer, R; Hu, H; Langer, N; Townsend, R H D; Townsley, Dean M; Timmes, F X

    2015-01-01

    We substantially update the capabilities of the open-source software instrument Modules for Experiments in Stellar Astrophysics (MESA). MESA can now simultaneously evolve an interacting pair of differentially rotating stars undergoing transfer and loss of mass and angular momentum, greatly enhancing the prior ability to model binary evolution. New MESA capabilities in fully coupled calculation of nuclear networks with hundreds of isotopes now allow MESA to accurately simulate advanced burning stages needed to construct supernova progenitor models. Implicit hydrodynamics with shocks can now be treated with MESA, enabling modeling of the entire massive star lifecycle, from pre-main sequence evolution to the onset of core collapse and nucleosynthesis from the resulting explosion. Coupling of the GYRE non-adiabatic pulsation instrument with MESA allows for new explorations of the instability strips for massive stars while also accelerating the astrophysical use of asteroseismology data. We improve treatment of ma...

  3. Women's self-efficacy perceptions in mathematics and science: Investigating USC-MESA students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hong, Rebecca Cheng-Shun

    This study is an investigation into female high school seniors in the USC-MESA program and how the role of self-efficacy perceptions in mathematics and science relates to their college major choice. Bandura's theory on self-efficacy provides the backdrop for this study. This study is qualitative and takes an ethnographic approach incorporating 23 interviews, 2 focus groups, 49.5 hours of observation, and document analysis. Results show that female high school seniors participating in the USC-MESA program demonstrate a strong self-efficacy perception in mathematics and science through their academic choices and pursuits in high school and beyond. This finding confirms a linear approach in understanding how courses taken in high school contribute to the trajectory of college academic choices. It also challenges the theory of self-efficacy in math and science to examine historically underrepresented populations in the field and the external factors that play a key role in their persistence to pursue STEM fields in college and beyond.

  4. Decision-making in rectal and colorectal cancer: systematic review and qualitative analysis of surgeons' preferences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Broc, Guillaume; Gana, Kamel; Denost, Quentin; Quintard, Bruno

    2017-04-01

    Surgeons are experiencing difficulties implementing recommendations not only owing to incomplete, confusing or conflicting information but also to the increasing involvement of patients in decisions relating to their health. This study sought to establish which common factors including heuristic factors guide surgeons' decision-making in colon and rectal cancers. We conducted a systematic literature review of surgeons' decision-making factors related to colon and rectal cancer treatment. Eleven of 349 identified publications were eligible for data analyses. Using the IRaMuTeQ (Interface of R for the Multidimensional Analyses of Texts and Questionnaire), we carried out a qualitative analysis of the significant factors collected in the studies reviewed. Several validation procedures were applied to control the robustness of the findings. Five categories of factors (i.e. patient, surgeon, treatment, tumor and organizational cues) were found to influence surgeons' decision-making. Specifically, all decision criteria including biomedical (e.g. tumor information) and heuristic (e.g. surgeons' dispositional factors) criteria converged towards the factor 'age of patient' in the similarity analysis. In the light of the results, we propose an explanatory model showing the impact of heuristic criteria on medical issues (i.e. diagnosis, prognosis, treatment features, etc.) and thus on decision-making. Finally, the psychosocial complexity involved in decision-making is discussed and a medico-psycho-social grid for use in multidisciplinary meetings is proposed.

  5. Análise exploratória de adoçantes de mesa via espectroscopia no infravermelho (FTIR e análise por componentes principais (ACP Exploratory analysis of commercial sweeteners by infrared spectroscopy (FTIR and principal component analysis (PCA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adriana Tozetto

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available Nos últimos vinte anos, o consumo de alimentos diet e light tem aumentado sistematicamente, o que tem propiciado o constante desenvolvimento de produtos desse gênero. Grande ênfase tem sido dada àqueles produtos que substituem sacarose por edulcorantes de baixos conteúdos calóricos ou não calóricos. Seguindo esta tendência, adoçantes de mesa têm sido desenvolvidos variando-se amplamente o veículo e o tipo de edulcorante empregado. Neste trabalho, a análise de componentes principais associada à espectroscopia na região do infravermelho médio foi utilizada com sucesso para diferenciar os veículos empregados na produção destes adoçantes, sendo que esta metodologia quimiométrica reduziu o espaço dimensional para dois fatores, explicando cerca de 82-% da variância total dos dados. As variáveis responsáveis por esta discriminação estão localizadas na região da impressão digital do espectro de infravermelho (752,2 a 1284,5 cm-1. A análise exploratória mostrou-se útil para a visualização destes dados, gerando informações semiquantitativas para os adoçantes constituídos por lactose/aspartame, observações que seriam dificilmente visualizadas sem o recurso quimiométrico aplicado.In the last twenty years, the consumption of diet and light foods has grown steadily, leading to the constant development of such products. Much emphasis has been placed on products that replace sucrose with sweeteners of low or zero calorie content. The development of new commercial sweeteners illustrates this tendency. In this work, principal component analysis and infrared spectroscopy were used to successfully differentiate the vehicles (mediums employed in the production of sweeteners. This chemometric methodology reduced the dimensional space to two factors, accounting for 82% of the total variance of the data. The variables responsible for this discrimination were localized in the fingerprint region of the infrared spectrum (752.2 to

  6. Hierarchical Modelling of Flood Risk for Engineering Decision Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Custer, Rocco

    . The methodology is applied to the disaggregation of portfolios of buildings in two communes in Switzerland. The relevance of disaggregation uncertainty to natural hazard risk assessment is illustrated with a simple flood risk assessment example. A second challenge - fragility and vulnerability modelling of all...... in the present thesis. First, design and optimisation of a hierarchical flood protection system generally entails decisions about structures at different spatial scales, which, in turn, may require risk assessment at different spatial resolutions and levels of detail. Consistent risk modelling at different...... spatial scales may therefore require up- and downscaling of data and models under due consideration of uncertainties and dependencies. In this thesis, a methodology is proposed for spatially disaggregating an aggregated building portfolio considering disaggregation uncertainty and spatial correlation...

  7. Stability Analysis of Transportation Networks with Multiscale Driver Decisions

    CERN Document Server

    Como, Giacomo; Acemoglu, Daron; Dahleh, Munther A; Frazzoli, Emilio

    2011-01-01

    Stability of Wardrop equilibria is analyzed for dynamical transportation networks in which the drivers' route choices are influenced by information at multiple temporal and spatial scales. The considered model involves a continuum of indistinguishable drivers commuting between a common origin/destination pair in an acyclic transportation network. The drivers' route choices are affected by their, relatively infrequent, perturbed best responses to global information about the current network congestion levels, as well as their instantaneous local observation of the immediate surroundings as they transit through the network. A novel model is proposed for the drivers' route choice behavior, exhibiting local consistency with their preference toward globally less congested paths as well as myopic decisions in favor of locally less congested paths. The simultaneous evolution of the traffic congestion on the network and of the aggregate path preference is modeled by a system of coupled ordinary differential equations...

  8. Lean production tools and decision latitude enable conditions for innovative learning in organizations: a multilevel analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fagerlind Ståhl, Anna-Carin; Gustavsson, Maria; Karlsson, Nadine; Johansson, Gun; Ekberg, Kerstin

    2015-03-01

    The effect of lean production on conditions for learning is debated. This study aimed to investigate how tools inspired by lean production (standardization, resource reduction, visual monitoring, housekeeping, value flow analysis) were associated with an innovative learning climate and with collective dispersion of ideas in organizations, and whether decision latitude contributed to these associations. A questionnaire was sent out to employees in public, private, production and service organizations (n = 4442). Multilevel linear regression analyses were used. Use of lean tools and decision latitude were positively associated with an innovative learning climate and collective dispersion of ideas. A low degree of decision latitude was a modifier in the association to collective dispersion of ideas. Lean tools can enable shared understanding and collective spreading of ideas, needed for the development of work processes, especially when decision latitude is low. Value flow analysis played a pivotal role in the associations.

  9. Mesa Diaphragm-Based Fabry-Perot Optical MEMS Pressure Sensor

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Yi-Xian Ge; Ming Wang; Hai-Tao Yan

    2008-01-01

    An optical micro electron mechanical system (MEMS) pressure sensor with a mesa membrane is presented. The operating principle of the MEMS pressure sensor is expatiated by the Fabry-Perot (F-P) interference and the relation between deflection and pressure is analyzed. Both the mechanical model of the mesa structure diaphragm and the signal averaging effect is validated by simulation, which declares that the mesa structure diaphragm is superior to the planar one on the parallelism and can reduce the signal averaging effect. Experimental results demonstrate that the mesa structure sensor has a reasonable linearity and sensitivity.

  10. Decision Analysis of the Benefits and Costs of Screening for Prostate Cancer

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-08-01

    didactic lectures focusing on study design, analysis, and grant-writing, and presentations of ongoing research including decision analysis, cancer...1330-1334. 41. Cooperberg MR, Broering JM, Carroll PR. Time trends and local variation in primary treatment of lo- calized prostate cancer. J Clin Oncol

  11. Application of decision analysis in debt-for-environment swaps

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Abu-Taleb, M.F. [Department of Civil Engineering, Applied Science University, PO Box 40, 11831, Amman (Jordan)

    2003-03-01

    Through a mandate by the Government of Jordan, a debt-for-environment swap initiative was designed to mobilize resources for programs that improve the Jordanian environment within a broad spectrum of conservation, water supply, sanitation, resource management, ecological protection, environmental education, and pollution abatement technology. As a debtor country, Jordan faces a severe debt burden (with debt-per-capita levels among the highest in the world), and is facing difficulty obtaining further credit to fill the gaps in hard currency requirements for imports. Debt swap converts outstanding debt obligations into local currency for approved national environmental programs and projects. With creditor countries favoring debt swap over debt forgiveness in general, and debt swap for environmental technology projects in particular, the initiative was launched to ensure both fiscal and environmental quality benefits. With donors requiring that project development and selection procedures be fair, unbiased, and transparent, a mechanism for ultimate selection was developed by the author solely for the initiative based on multiple objective optimization techniques. This paper formulates the necessary decision-analytic principles for the initiative and presents a discrete, defensible, and transparent model for selection of projects. The model ranks the projects in terms of environment and economic objectives and can be used for other generalized applications. (orig.)

  12. Barriers And Profits Of Distan ce Education In Operations Research Based Decision Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tomasz Szapiro

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Distance education and blended learning allow universities to lower costs, have more return on economies of scale, better control educational process and provide higher quality services for students. This process however requires specialized software to be used by a university. The paper tackles issues related with this approach and presents guidelines for construction of a framework for creating web-based education support software in quantitative area – the meta-framework that al lows for a rapid construction of web-based educational decision analysis software. The framework design in paper covers three aspect: (1 information system modeling, (2 decision problem modeling and (3 teaching process modeling. The information system modeling includes system architecture, servers, programming languages and technical design. The decision problem modeling prov ides means to present an abstract decision problem (and more generally - a problem where quantitative methods can be used and to model interaction between software and decision maker (i.e. a student learning a decision algorithm. Teaching process modeling includes support for linear teaching algorithm in the decision making process, further this can be extended into non-linear and hybrid teaching algorithms. As a proof of concept a working framework prototype named Combine! will be presented. The software’s usefulness was evaluated through a survey carried out on 234 students at Warsaw School of Economics.

  13. Decision-making ability in current and past users of opiates: A meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biernacki, Kathryn; McLennan, Skye N; Terrett, Gill; Labuschagne, Izelle; Rendell, Peter G

    2016-12-01

    Opiate use is associated with deficits in decision-making. However, the impact of abstinence and co-morbid factors, like head injury and poly-substance abuse, on this ability, is currently unclear. This meta-analysis aimed to assess 1) the magnitude of decision-making deficits in opiate users; 2) whether co-morbid factors moderate the severity of these deficits; 3) whether ex-opiate users demonstrate smaller decision-making deficits than current users; and 4) whether the length of abstinence is related to the magnitude of decision-making deficits. We analysed 22 studies that compared the performance of current and ex-opiate users to healthy controls on decision-making measures such as the Iowa Gambling Task. Current users demonstrated a moderately strong impairment in decision-making relative to controls, which was not significantly moderated by co-morbid factors. The magnitude of the impairment did not significantly differ between studies assessing current or ex-users, and this impairment was not related to length of abstinence. Thus, it appears that opiate users have relatively severe decision-making deficits that persist at least 1.5 years after cessation of use.

  14. Decision curve analysis revisited: overall net benefit, relationships to ROC curve analysis, and application to case-control studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zumbrunn Thomas

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Decision curve analysis has been introduced as a method to evaluate prediction models in terms of their clinical consequences if used for a binary classification of subjects into a group who should and into a group who should not be treated. The key concept for this type of evaluation is the "net benefit", a concept borrowed from utility theory. Methods We recall the foundations of decision curve analysis and discuss some new aspects. First, we stress the formal distinction between the net benefit for the treated and for the untreated and define the concept of the "overall net benefit". Next, we revisit the important distinction between the concept of accuracy, as typically assessed using the Youden index and a receiver operating characteristic (ROC analysis, and the concept of utility of a prediction model, as assessed using decision curve analysis. Finally, we provide an explicit implementation of decision curve analysis to be applied in the context of case-control studies. Results We show that the overall net benefit, which combines the net benefit for the treated and the untreated, is a natural alternative to the benefit achieved by a model, being invariant with respect to the coding of the outcome, and conveying a more comprehensive picture of the situation. Further, within the framework of decision curve analysis, we illustrate the important difference between the accuracy and the utility of a model, demonstrating how poor an accurate model may be in terms of its net benefit. Eventually, we expose that the application of decision curve analysis to case-control studies, where an accurate estimate of the true prevalence of a disease cannot be obtained from the data, is achieved with a few modifications to the original calculation procedure. Conclusions We present several interrelated extensions to decision curve analysis that will both facilitate its interpretation and broaden its potential area of application.

  15. A decision analysis approach for risk management of near-earth objects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Robert C.; Jones, Thomas D.; Chapman, Clark R.

    2014-10-01

    Risk management of near-Earth objects (NEOs; e.g., asteroids and comets) that can potentially impact Earth is an important issue that took on added urgency with the Chelyabinsk event of February 2013. Thousands of NEOs large enough to cause substantial damage are known to exist, although only a small fraction of these have the potential to impact Earth in the next few centuries. The probability and location of a NEO impact are subject to complex physics and great uncertainty, and consequences can range from minimal to devastating, depending upon the size of the NEO and location of impact. Deflecting a potential NEO impactor would be complex and expensive, and inter-agency and international cooperation would be necessary. Such deflection campaigns may be risky in themselves, and mission failure may result in unintended consequences. The benefits, risks, and costs of different potential NEO risk management strategies have not been compared in a systematic fashion. We present a decision analysis framework addressing this hazard. Decision analysis is the science of informing difficult decisions. It is inherently multi-disciplinary, especially with regard to managing catastrophic risks. Note that risk analysis clarifies the nature and magnitude of risks, whereas decision analysis guides rational risk management. Decision analysis can be used to inform strategic, policy, or resource allocation decisions. First, a problem is defined, including the decision situation and context. Second, objectives are defined, based upon what the different decision-makers and stakeholders (i.e., participants in the decision) value as important. Third, quantitative measures or scales for the objectives are determined. Fourth, alternative choices or strategies are defined. Fifth, the problem is then quantitatively modeled, including probabilistic risk analysis, and the alternatives are ranked in terms of how well they satisfy the objectives. Sixth, sensitivity analyses are performed in

  16. Reducing incomparability in multicriteria decision analysis: an extension of the ZAPROS method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Isabelle Tamanini

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available The ZAPROS method belongs to the Verbal Decision Analysis framework, and it aims at solving decision-making problems in a more realistic way from the decision maker's point of view. Quantitative methods can lead to loss of information when attempting to assign accurate measurements to verbal values. However, the feature exposed can cause a decrease in the comparison power of the method, making the incomparability cases between the alternatives unavoidable and leading to an unsatisfactory result of the problem, thus leading to an unsatisfactory outcome of the problem. Considering the limitation exposed, this work presents a methodological approach structured on the ZAPROS method to assist in decision-making in the Verbal Decision Analysis. The aim is to produce a complete result which is satisfactory to the decision maker, through the reduction of the cases of incomparability between alternatives. The modifications were mainly applied to the comparison of alternatives process and did not change the computational complexity of the method.

  17. Allocating health care: cost-utility analysis, informed democratic decision making, or the veil of ignorance?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goold, S D

    1996-01-01

    Assuming that rationing health care is unavoidable, and that it requires moral reasoning, how should we allocate limited health care resources? This question is difficult because our pluralistic, liberal society has no consensus on a conception of distributive justice. In this article I focus on an alternative: Who shall decide how to ration health care, and how shall this be done to respect autonomy, pluralism, liberalism, and fairness? I explore three processes for making rationing decisions: cost-utility analysis, informed democratic decision making, and applications of the veil of ignorance. I evaluate these processes as examples of procedural justice, assuming that there is no outcome considered the most just. I use consent as a criterion to judge competing processes so that rationing decisions are, to some extent, self-imposed. I also examine the processes' feasibility in our current health care system. Cost-utility analysis does not meet criteria for actual or presumed consent, even if costs and health-related utility could be measured perfectly. Existing structures of government cannot creditably assimilate the information required for sound rationing decisions, and grassroots efforts are not representative. Applications of the veil of ignorance are more useful for identifying principles relevant to health care rationing than for making concrete rationing decisions. I outline a process of decision making, specifically for health care, that relies on substantive, selected representation, respects pluralism, liberalism, and deliberative democracy, and could be implemented at the community or organizational level.

  18. RATING DECISION ANALYSIS BASED ON IOS APP STORE DATA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dejan Erić

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The aim of the paper is to describe the specific aspects of the e-commerce model business-to-consumer as a constantly developing field of an economic life in the Central European countries according to their customers. The current state of e-business and business-to-consumer e-commerce issue was identified by the research in the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia.Methodology/Approach: For the purposes of collecting primary data the crucial factor for the selection of e-shops was identification of the suitable  online portals focused on post-purchase evaluation of e-shops in Visegrad group countries. Automatic data collection method was used for the observed variables (evaluations within selected online portals of the identified e-shops. The total of 5,228,127 evaluations of 9,260 e-shops were analysed. The main focus was given to customer overall satisfaction with an e-shop in relation to communication with a customer or overall satisfaction with an e-shop and delivery quality.Findings: The results of the research showed that there exists a direct relation between overall satisfaction with an e-shop and communication with customers or overall satisfaction with an e-shop and delivery quality.Originality/Value of paper: The ambition of this paper through the findings is to help subjects of e-commerce in their marketing decisions in order to even better understand the factors that influence customers’ satisfaction. 

  19. Application of decision analysis to intelligent transportation system societal issues. Final report, 15 March 1996-14 March 1997

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Richardson, B.C.; Albers, W.A.; Kostyniuk, L.P.; Barnes, M.A.; Rodriguez, D.A.

    1997-03-14

    A demonstration of the use of decision analysis to address societal and institutional issues in an Intelligent Transportation System-based paratransit implementation was performed. A decision analysis technique called Multi-Organization Decision Analysis (MODA) was developed, and it is based on the Decision Risk Analysis process used widely in the private sector. Its objective is to facilitate consensus among the disparate public and private sector stakeholders in a decision process. The stakeholders are represented on a decision-making team, and they are supported by a team of analysts. MODA meetings are aided by facilitators. The process includes the development of a shared vision statement framing the problem, developing alternative solutions, analyzing the alternatives, and reaching a decision. Progression to the next step of the process does not occur until consensus is reached on the present step.

  20. Return or relocate? An inductive analysis of decision-making in a disaster.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henry, Jacques

    2013-04-01

    This paper proposes an inductive analysis of the decision as to whether to return or to relocate by persons in the State of Louisiana, United States, who evacuated after Hurricanes Katrina and Rita in August and September 2005, respectively. Drawing on interviews with evacuees in these events and extensive fieldwork in the impacted area, the paper seeks to identify the folk dimensions of the decision-making process, assess their arrangements, and situate the process in the larger context of risk and resilience in an advanced society. It suggests that, despite the material and emotional upheaval experienced by affected persons, the decision-making process is a rational endeavour combining a definite set of tightly interconnected factors, involving material dimensions and substantive values that can act in concert or in conflict. In addition, it indicates that there are significant variations by geographic areas, homeownership, and kind of decision. Some theoretical implications, practical measures, and suggestions for future research are examined.

  1. Impact of proximity-adjusted preferences on rank-order stability in geographical multicriteria decision analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ligmann-Zielinska, Arika; Jankowski, Piotr

    2012-04-01

    This paper presents a new approach to deriving preferences assigned to evaluation criteria in geographical multicriteria decision analysis. In this approach, the preferences, expressed by numeric weights, are adjusted by distance measures derived from the explicit consideration of a locational structure. The structure is given by locations of decision options and high importance reference objects. The approach is demonstrated on the example of a house selection case study in San Diego, California. The results show that proximity-adjusted preferences for the evaluation criteria can alter significantly the rank order of decision options. Consequently, the explicit modeling of spatial preference variability may be needed in order to better account for decision-maker's preferences.

  2. Decision analysis for the exploration of gas reserves: merging todim and thor

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos Francisco Simões Gomes

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available This article approaches the problem of selecting the non-dominated alternative for the destination of the natural gas reserves in the Mexilhão field in the Santos Basin, Brazil. Major aims of the case study reported here were to create a mechanism for assisting in the process of analyzing and selecting the best options for the destination of natural gas, and to enable the decision agent to choose the investment options best aligned to the expectations and objectives observed in the company strategies. The decision analysis employed in the study made use of the TODIM method and the THOR multicriteria decision support system. The application of both demonstrated that a decision analytic framework can be extremely useful when recommending options for upstream projects, owing to the fact that it can clearly identify the most important alternatives in the face of the scenarios tested and in relation to the criteria expressed.

  3. Accelerating policy decisions to adopt haemophilus influenzae type B vaccine: a global, multivariable analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jessica C Shearer

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Adoption of new and underutilized vaccines by national immunization programs is an essential step towards reducing child mortality. Policy decisions to adopt new vaccines in high mortality countries often lag behind decisions in high-income countries. Using the case of Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib vaccine, this paper endeavors to explain these delays through the analysis of country-level economic, epidemiological, programmatic and policy-related factors, as well as the role of the Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunisation (GAVI Alliance. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Data for 147 countries from 1990 to 2007 were analyzed in accelerated failure time models to identify factors that are associated with the time to decision to adopt Hib vaccine. In multivariable models that control for Gross National Income, region, and burden of Hib disease, the receipt of GAVI support speeded the time to decision by a factor of 0.37 (95% CI 0.18-0.76, or 63%. The presence of two or more neighboring country adopters accelerated decisions to adopt by a factor of 0.50 (95% CI 0.33-0.75. For each 1% increase in vaccine price, decisions to adopt are delayed by a factor of 1.02 (95% CI 1.00-1.04. Global recommendations and local studies were not associated with time to decision. CONCLUSIONS: This study substantiates previous findings related to vaccine price and presents new evidence to suggest that GAVI eligibility is associated with accelerated decisions to adopt Hib vaccine. The influence of neighboring country decisions was also highly significant, suggesting that approaches to support the adoption of new vaccines should consider supply- and demand-side factors.

  4. Use of multi-criteria decision analysis in regulatory alternatives analysis: a case study of lead free solder.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malloy, Timothy F; Sinsheimer, Peter J; Blake, Ann; Linkov, Igor

    2013-10-01

    Regulators are implementing new programs that require manufacturers of products containing certain chemicals of concern to identify, evaluate, and adopt viable, safer alternatives. Such programs raise the difficult question for policymakers and regulated businesses of which alternatives are "viable" and "safer." To address that question, these programs use "alternatives analysis," an emerging methodology that integrates issues of human health and environmental effects with technical feasibility and economic impact. Despite the central role that alternatives analysis plays in these programs, the methodology itself is neither well-developed nor tailored to application in regulatory settings. This study uses the case of Pb-based bar solder and its non-Pb-based alternatives to examine the application of 2 multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) methods to alternatives analysis: multi-attribute utility analysis and outranking. The article develops and evaluates an alternatives analysis methodology and supporting decision-analysis software for use in a regulatory context, using weighting of the relevant decision criteria generated from a stakeholder elicitation process. The analysis produced complete rankings of the alternatives, including identification of the relative contribution to the ranking of each of the highest level decision criteria such as human health impacts, technical feasibility, and economic feasibility. It also examined the effect of variation in data conventions, weighting, and decision frameworks on the outcome. The results indicate that MCDA can play a critical role in emerging prevention-based regulatory programs. Multi-criteria decision analysis methods offer a means for transparent, objective, and rigorous analysis of products and processes, providing regulators and stakeholders with a common baseline understanding of the relative performance of alternatives and the trade-offs they present.

  5. Inductive Decision Tree Analysis of the Validity Rank of Construction Parameters of Innovative Gear Pump after Tooth Root Undercutting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Deptuła A.

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available The article presents an innovative use of inductive algorithm for generating the decision tree for an analysis of the rank validity parameters of construction and maintenance of the gear pump with undercut tooth. It is preventet an alternative way of generating sets of decisions and determining the hierarchy of decision variables to existing the methods of discrete optimization.

  6. Decision Analysis of Advertising and Price for Bilateral Competing Supply Chain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cheng-Tang Zhang

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The outcome of centralized equilibrium, prisoner's dilemma equilibrium, and decentralized equilibrium under different decision models has been provided with regards to bilateral competing supply chain system, either side of which is composed of one manufacturer and one retailer. Theoretical analysis indicates a positive correlation between price and one's own advertising investment level and a negative correlation between price and the opponent's advertising investment level. Through analysis of numerical examples, the results reveal a first mover advantage that leads to prisoner's dilemma in the system as well as the impact that price and advertising competition intensity has on the supply chain's choice of decision model.

  7. Use of stochastic multi-criteria decision analysis to support sustainable management of contaminated sediments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sparrevik, Magnus; Barton, David N; Bates, Mathew E; Linkov, Igor

    2012-02-01

    Sustainable management of contaminated sediments requires careful prioritization of available resources and focuses on efforts to optimize decisions that consider environmental, economic, and societal aspects simultaneously. This may be achieved by combining different analytical approaches such as risk analysis (RA), life cycle analysis (LCA), multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA), and economic valuation methods. We propose the use of stochastic MCDA based on outranking algorithms to implement integrative sustainability strategies for sediment management. In this paper we use the method to select the best sediment management alternatives for the dibenzo-p-dioxin and -furan (PCDD/F) contaminated Grenland fjord in Norway. In the analysis, the benefits of health risk reductions and socio-economic benefits from removing seafood health advisories are evaluated against the detriments of remedial costs and life cycle environmental impacts. A value-plural based weighing of criteria is compared to criteria weights mimicking traditional cost-effectiveness (CEA) and cost-benefit (CBA) analyses. Capping highly contaminated areas in the inner or outer fjord is identified as the most preferable remediation alternative under all criteria schemes and the results are confirmed by a probabilistic sensitivity analysis. The proposed methodology can serve as a flexible framework for future decision support and can be a step toward more sustainable decision making for contaminated sediment management. It may be applicable to the broader field of ecosystem restoration for trade-off analysis between ecosystem services and restoration costs.

  8. Robustness of Multiple Objective Decision Analysis Preference Functions

    Science.gov (United States)

    2002-06-01

    1995. Jia, Jianmin, and James S. Dyer. “Risk Value Theory.” Risk-Value Study Series Working Paper No. 3, August 1994. Johnson, Edgar M., and...Analysis." Cambridge University Press, 1990. Morin , R. A., and A. F. Suarez. “Risk Aversion Revisited,” Journal of Finance: 1201-1216 (September

  9. A New Model for Decision Analysis in Economic Evaluations of Switchable Health Interventions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shekoufeh Nikfar

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Tolerability is an essential part of drug therapy and can affect health and economic outcomes. Withdrawal due to adverse reactions of medicines or lack of effectiveness is a major concern in long-term treatments that influences cost-effectiveness analysis. In case of possibility of stopping and switch to other interventions in decision analysis model, overhead costing may affect results and decision-making processes. Thus, modifying of classic decision analysis model seems to be necessary in such cases. My hypothesis is that by the use of a new decision model that can make links between different Markov-like models accurate cost calculation could be achieved. The appearance of model is going to be like a semicycle net. Considering the probability of switching from one treatment strategy to another, one could give more precise economic evaluation results. In the first step, this model needs to be tested and compared with the conventional model. In the second step, the impact of these differences has to be examined in the practical field of health, drug policy and supply management. By applying this new decision model in total health budget, threshold and its consequences on national health accounts and share of health in gross domestic product should be tested.

  10. Geologic map of the Palisade quadrangle, Mesa County, Colorado

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carrara, Paul E.

    2000-01-01

    The Palisade 1:24,000 quadrangle is in Mesa County in western Colorado. Because the map area is dominated by various surficial deposits, the map depicts 22 different Quaternary units. Two prominent river terraces are present in the quadrangle containing gravels deposited by the Colorado River. The map area contains many mass movement deposits. Extensive landslide deposits are present along the eastern part of the quadrangle. These massive landslides originate on the flanks of Grand Mesa, in the Green River and Wasatch Formations, and flow west onto the Palisade quadrangle. In addition, large areas of the eastern and southern parts of the map are covered by extensive pediment surfaces. These pediment surfaces are underlain by debris flow deposits also originating from Grand Mesa. Material in these deposits consists of mainly subangular basalt cobbles and boulders and indicate that these debris flow deposits have traveled as much as 10 km from their source area. The pediment surfaces have been divided into 5 age classes based on their height above surrounding drainages. Two common bedrock units in the map area are the Mancos Shale and the Mesaverde Group both of Upper Cretaceous age. The Mancos shale is common in low lying areas near the western map border. The Mesaverde Group forms prominent sandstone cliffs in the north-central map area. The map is accompanied by a separate pamphlet containing unit descriptions, a section on geologic hazards (including landslides, piping, gullying, expansive soils, and flooding), and a section on economic geology (including sand and gravel, and coal). A table indicates what map units are susceptible to a given hazard. Approximately twenty references are cited at the end of the report.

  11. A decision analysis framework for stakeholder involvement and learning in groundwater management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. P. Karjalainen

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA methods are increasingly used to facilitate both rigorous analysis and stakeholder involvement in natural and water resource planning. Decision making in that context is often complex and multi-faceted with numerous trade-offs between social, environmental and economic impacts. However, practical applications of decision-support methods are often too technically oriented and hard to use, understand or interpret for all participants. The learning of participants in these processes is seldom examined, even though successful deliberation depends on learning. This paper analyzes the potential of an interactive MCDA framework, the decision analysis interview (DAI approach, for facilitating stakeholder involvement and learning in groundwater management. It evaluates the results of an MCDA process in assessing land-use management alternatives in a Finnish esker aquifer area where conflicting land uses affect the groundwater body and dependent ecosystems. In the assessment process, emphasis was placed on the interactive role of the MCDA tool in facilitating stakeholder participation and learning. The results confirmed that the structured decision analysis framework can foster learning and collaboration in a process where disputes and diverse interests are represented. Computer-aided interviews helped the participants to see how their preferences affected the desirability and ranking of alternatives. During the process, the participants' knowledge and preferences evolved as they assess their initial knowledge with the help of fresh scientific information. The decision analysis process led to the opening of a dialogue, showing the overall picture of the problem context, and the critical issues for the further process.

  12. Econometric Analysis of Bulk Shipping: implications for investment strategies and financial decision-making

    OpenAIRE

    Tsolakis, S.

    2005-01-01

    textabstractThis thesis provides an econometric analysis of the bulk shipping markets and the implications for shipping investment and financial decision making. Chapter 1 sets the scene by providing a historic analysis of bulk shipping markets over the last 55 years. From this analysis, four shipping markets (freight, newbuilding, second-hand and demolition) are distinguished as well as a fifth one (ship finance) that acts as a facilitator to the other four. Also, with the help of correlatio...

  13. Competitor analysis for Feelback Ltd - A base for strategic decision making

    OpenAIRE

    Markkanen, Sini

    2012-01-01

    The aim of this research was to execute a competitor analysis for Feelback Ltd. The analysis focused on finding the company’s current competitors operating in Finland. The commissioner Feelback intended to use the competitor information in strategic decision making, such as planning the company’s operations in the competitive environment. The competitor analysis found 14 competitors which were grouped into direct, indirect and potential competitors. As a conclusion, it can be stated t...

  14. Toward an Extension of Decision Analysis to Competitive Situations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1985-12-01

    Analysis: Models and Resolutions. New York: Elsevier Science Publishing Co.. 23. Goffman , Erving [19609]. Strategic Interaction. Philadelphia: University...have attempted to devise a method for making this determination; we will discuss some of them In this section. Goffman 1969], In a work on strategic...knowledge, and fallibility (resolve, Information state, and resources [ Goffman , 1969]). Porter [1980] calls this category "capabilities" and uses it

  15. Preliminary evaluation of fluid chemistry in the East Mesa KGRA

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hoagland, J.R.

    1976-10-04

    One of the major problems needing consideration when bringing a geothermal field into production is the anticipation and control of mineral precipitation in both the producing formations and production equipment. Prediction of the chemical interactions between natural multicomponent thermal fluids and the minerals comprising a producing formation can be accomplished by the study of equilibrium models approximating the natural system. Models are constructed from theoretically and experimentally derived thermodynamic data for the involved minerals and aqueous species. This equilibrium modeling approach was applied to the rock-water system at the East Mesa geothermal area in the Imperial Valley of California. Results of petrographic and fluid analyses are given. (JGB)

  16. Samodostatnost Republike Hrvatske u proizvodnji goveđeg mesa

    OpenAIRE

    Grgić, prof. dr. sc. Ivo; Zrakić, mag. ing. agr., Magdalena

    2015-01-01

    Tendencije u govedarstvu su jedan od pokazatelja poljoprivrednog razvitka, a meso predstavlja važan dio prehrane značajnog dijela stanovnika zemalja EU. Na razinu potrošnje najveći utjecaj ima dohodak stanovništva, a znatno manje drugi čimbenici kao što su prehrambene navike, religijski, zdravstveni i drugi razlozi. Iako se broj goveda u EU stalno smanjuje, Unija je i dalje jedno od najvećih svjetskih tržišta mesa. I u Hrvatskoj se bilježi smanjenje broja goveda (za oko 3% za razdoblje 2008/2...

  17. MESA/MEP at American River College: Year One Evaluation Report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Beth S.; And Others

    In 1989, the Mathematics, Engineering, and Science Achievement (MESA)/Minority Engineering Program (MEP) was initiated at American River College. The MESA/MEP program recruits Black, Hispanic, and Native American students and provides assistance, encouragement, and enrichment programs to help them succeed in the fields of mathematics, engineering,…

  18. MESA: Supporting Teaching and Learning about the Marine Environment--Primary Science Focus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Preston, Christine

    2010-01-01

    The Marine Education Society of Australasia (MESA) Inc. is a national organisation of marine educators that aims to bring together people interested in the study and enjoyment of coastal and marine environments. MESA representatives and members organise education and interpretation activities in support of schools and communities during a number…

  19. Investment Decision Support for Engineering Projects Based on Risk Correlation Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yan Liu

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Investment decisions are usually made on the basis of the subjective judgments of experts subjected to the information gap during the preliminary stages of a project. As a consequence, a series of errors in risk prediction and/or decision-making will be generated leading to out of control investment and project failure. In this paper, the variable fuzzy set theory and intelligent algorithms integrated with case-based reasoning are presented. The proposed algorithm manages the numerous fuzzy concepts and variable factors of a project and also sets up the decision-making process in accordance with past cases and experiences. Furthermore, it decreases the calculation difficulty and reduces the decision-making reaction time. Three types of risk correlations combined with different characteristics of engineering projects are summarized, and each of these correlations is expounded at the project investment decision-making stage. Quantitative and qualitative change theories of variable fuzzy sets are also addressed for investment risk warning. The approach presented in this paper enables the risk analysis in a simple and intuitive manner and realizes the integration of objective and subjective risk assessments within the decision-makers' risk expectation.

  20. Winning at litigation through decision analysis creating and executing winning strategies in any litigation or dispute

    CERN Document Server

    Celona, John

    2016-01-01

    This book is the first in-depth guide to applying the philosophy, theory, and methods of decision analysis to creating and executing winning legal strategies. With explanations that progress from introductory to advanced and practice problems at the end of each chapter, this is a book the reader will want to use and refer to for years to come. Practicing decision analysts, operations research and management science students, attorneys and law students will find this book an invaluable addition to their knowledge and skills. John Celona has over three decades of experience in teaching and applying decision analysis. John lectures in the School of Engineering at Stanford University and is on faculty at The Stanford Center for Professional Development, the American Course on Drug Development and Regulatory Sciences, and the Academy of the American Society for Healthcare Risk Management.

  1. Decisions, Science, and Values: Crafting Regulatory Alternatives Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malloy, Timothy; Blake, Ann; Linkov, Igor; Sinsheimer, Peter

    2015-12-01

    Emerging "prevention-based" approaches to chemical regulation seek to minimize the use of toxic chemicals by mandating or directly incentivizing the adoption of viable safer alternative chemicals or processes. California and Maine are beginning to implement such programs, requiring manufacturers of consumer products containing certain chemicals of concern to identify and evaluate potential safer alternatives. In the European Union, the REACH program imposes similar obligations on manufacturers of certain substances of very high concern. Effective prevention-based regulation requires regulatory alternatives analysis (RAA), a methodology for comparing and evaluating the regulated chemical or process and its alternatives across a range of relevant criteria. RAA has both public and private dimensions. To a significant degree, alternatives analysis is an aspect of product design; that is, the process by which private industry designs the goods it sells. Accordingly, an RAA method should reflect the attributes of well-crafted product design tools used by businesses. But RAA adds health and environmental objectives to the mix of concerns taken into account by the product designer. Moreover, as part of a prevention-based regulatory regime, it implicates important public values such as legitimacy, equity, public engagement, and accountability. Thus, an RAA should reflect both private standards and public values, and be evaluated against them. This article adopts that perspective, identifying an integrated set of design principles for RAA, and illustrating the application of those principles.

  2. 77 FR 40354 - Mesa de Los Carros Hydro, LLC; Notice of Preliminary Permit Application Accepted for Filing and...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-07-09

    ... Energy Regulatory Commission Mesa de Los Carros Hydro, LLC; Notice of Preliminary Permit Application..., 2012, Mesa De Los Carros Hydro, LLC filed an application, pursuant to section 4(f) of the Federal Power Act (FPA), proposing to study the feasibility of the Mesa De Los Carros Pumped Storage Project to...

  3. Extensions to Regret-based Decision Curve Analysis: An application to hospice referral for terminal patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tsalatsanis Athanasios

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Despite the well documented advantages of hospice care, most terminally ill patients do not reap the maximum benefit from hospice services, with the majority of them receiving hospice care either prematurely or delayed. Decision systems to improve the hospice referral process are sorely needed. Methods We present a novel theoretical framework that is based on well-established methodologies of prognostication and decision analysis to assist with the hospice referral process for terminally ill patients. We linked the SUPPORT statistical model, widely regarded as one of the most accurate models for prognostication of terminally ill patients, with the recently developed regret based decision curve analysis (regret DCA. We extend the regret DCA methodology to consider harms associated with the prognostication test as well as harms and effects of the management strategies. In order to enable patients and physicians in making these complex decisions in real-time, we developed an easily accessible web-based decision support system available at the point of care. Results The web-based decision support system facilitates the hospice referral process in three steps. First, the patient or surrogate is interviewed to elicit his/her personal preferences regarding the continuation of life-sustaining treatment vs. palliative care. Then, regret DCA is employed to identify the best strategy for the particular patient in terms of threshold probability at which he/she is indifferent between continuation of treatment and of hospice referral. Finally, if necessary, the probabilities of survival and death for the particular patient are computed based on the SUPPORT prognostication model and contrasted with the patient's threshold probability. The web-based design of the CDSS enables patients, physicians, and family members to participate in the decision process from anywhere internet access is available. Conclusions We present a theoretical

  4. Placement Decisions and Disparities among Aboriginal Groups: An Application of the Decision Making Ecology through Multi-Level Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fluke, John D.; Chabot, Martin; Fallon, Barbara; MacLaurin, Bruce; Blackstock, Cindy

    2010-01-01

    Objective: This paper examined the relative influence of clinical and organizational characteristics on the decision to place a child in out-of-home care at the conclusion of a child maltreatment investigation. It tested the hypothesis that extraneous factors, specifically, organizational characteristics, impact the decision to place a child in…

  5. Subsurface activities and decision support systems An analysis of the requirements for a social acceptance-motivated decision support system

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Os, Herman W. A.; Herber, Rien; Scholtens, Bert

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, we present a novel perspective on evaluating subsurface activities by increasing the role of social acceptance in the decision-making process. We use the triangle of social acceptance to structure and analyze the decision-making problem in three classes: social-political, market and c

  6. Multi-criteria decision analysis in environmental sciences: ten years of applications and trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Ivy B; Keisler, Jeffrey; Linkov, Igor

    2011-09-01

    Decision-making in environmental projects requires consideration of trade-offs between socio-political, environmental, and economic impacts and is often complicated by various stakeholder views. Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) emerged as a formal methodology to face available technical information and stakeholder values to support decisions in many fields and can be especially valuable in environmental decision making. This study reviews environmental applications of MCDA. Over 300 papers published between 2000 and 2009 reporting MCDA applications in the environmental field were identified through a series of queries in the Web of Science database. The papers were classified by their environmental application area, decision or intervention type. In addition, the papers were also classified by the MCDA methods used in the analysis (analytic hierarchy process, multi-attribute utility theory, and outranking). The results suggest that there is a significant growth in environmental applications of MCDA over the last decade across all environmental application areas. Multiple MCDA tools have been successfully used for environmental applications. Even though the use of the specific methods and tools varies in different application areas and geographic regions, our review of a few papers where several methods were used in parallel with the same problem indicates that recommended course of action does not vary significantly with the method applied.

  7. Neural systems analysis of decision making during goal-directed navigation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Penner, Marsha R; Mizumori, Sheri J Y

    2012-01-01

    The ability to make adaptive decisions during goal-directed navigation is a fundamental and highly evolved behavior that requires continual coordination of perceptions, learning and memory processes, and the planning of behaviors. Here, a neurobiological account for such coordination is provided by integrating current literatures on spatial context analysis and decision-making. This integration includes discussions of our current understanding of the role of the hippocampal system in experience-dependent navigation, how hippocampal information comes to impact midbrain and striatal decision making systems, and finally the role of the striatum in the implementation of behaviors based on recent decisions. These discussions extend across cellular to neural systems levels of analysis. Not only are key findings described, but also fundamental organizing principles within and across neural systems, as well as between neural systems functions and behavior, are emphasized. It is suggested that studying decision making during goal-directed navigation is a powerful model for studying interactive brain systems and their mediation of complex behaviors.

  8. Corrective Action Investigation Plan for Corrective Action Unit 99: Rainier Mesa/Shoshone Mountain, Nevada Test Site, Nevada with Errata and ROTC 1, Rev. No. 0

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McCord, John; Marutzky, Sam

    2004-12-01

    volcanic rocks that erupted from the caldera as well as from more distant sources. This has resulted in a layered volcanic stratigraphy composed of thick deposits of welded and nonwelded ash-flow tuff and lava flows. These deposits are proximal to the source caldera and are interstratified with the more distal facies of fallout tephra and bedded reworked tuff from more distant sources. In each area, a similar volcanic sequence was deposited upon Paleozoic carbonate and siliciclastic rocks that are disrupted by various thrust faults, normal faults, and strike-slip faults. In both Rainier Mesa (km) to the southwest, and Tippipah Spring, 4 km to the north, and the tunnel complex is dry. Particle-tracking simulations performed during the value of information analysis (VOIA) (SNJV, 2004b) indicate that most of the regional groundwater that underlies the test locations at Rainier Mesa and Shoshone Mountain eventually follows similar and parallel paths and ultimately discharges in Death Valley and the Amargosa Desert. Particle-tracking simulations conducted for the regional groundwater flow and risk assessment indicated that contamination from Rainier Mesa and Shoshone Mountain were unlikely to leave the NTS during the 1,000-year period of interest (DOE/NV, 1997a). It is anticipated that CAU-scale modeling will modify these results somewhat, but it is not expected to radically alter the outcome of these previous particle-tracking simulations within the 1,000-year period of interest. The Rainier Mesa/Shoshone Mountain CAIP describes the corrective action investigation (CAI) to be conducted at the Rainier Mesa/Shoshone Mountain CAU to evaluate the extent of contamination in groundwater due to the underground nuclear testing. The CAI will be conducted by the UGTA Project, which is part of the NNSA/NSO Environmental Restoration Project (ERP). The purpose and scope of the CAI are presented in this section, followed by a summary of the entire document.

  9. MODULES FOR EXPERIMENTS IN STELLAR ASTROPHYSICS (MESA): BINARIES, PULSATIONS, AND EXPLOSIONS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Paxton, Bill; Bildsten, Lars; Cantiello, Matteo [Kavli Institute for Theoretical Physics, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA 93106 (United States); Marchant, Pablo; Langer, N. [Argelander Institut für Astronomie, Universitat Bonn, Auf dem Hügel 71, D-53121 Bonn (Germany); Schwab, Josiah [Physics Department, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720 (United States); Bauer, Evan B. [Department of Physics, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA 93106 (United States); Dessart, Luc [Laboratoire Lagrange, UMR7293, Université Nice Sophia-Antipolis, CNRS, Observatoire de la Côte d’Azur, F-06300 Nice (France); Farmer, R.; Timmes, F. X. [School of Earth and Space Exploration, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ 85287 (United States); Hu, H. [SRON, Netherlands Institute for Space Research, Sorbonnelaan 2, 3584 CA Utrecht (Netherlands); Townsend, R. H. D. [Department of Astronomy, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI 53706 (United States); Townsley, Dean M., E-mail: pablo@astro.uni-bonn.de [Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Alabama, Tuscaloosa, AL 35487 (United States)

    2015-09-15

    We substantially update the capabilities of the open-source software instrument Modules for Experiments in Stellar Astrophysics (MESA). MESA can now simultaneously evolve an interacting pair of differentially rotating stars undergoing transfer and loss of mass and angular momentum, greatly enhancing the prior ability to model binary evolution. New MESA capabilities in fully coupled calculation of nuclear networks with hundreds of isotopes now allow MESA to accurately simulate the advanced burning stages needed to construct supernova progenitor models. Implicit hydrodynamics with shocks can now be treated with MESA, enabling modeling of the entire massive star lifecycle, from pre-main-sequence evolution to the onset of core collapse and nucleosynthesis from the resulting explosion. Coupling of the GYRE non-adiabatic pulsation instrument with MESA allows for new explorations of the instability strips for massive stars while also accelerating the astrophysical use of asteroseismology data. We improve the treatment of mass accretion, giving more accurate and robust near-surface profiles. A new MESA capability to calculate weak reaction rates “on-the-fly” from input nuclear data allows better simulation of accretion induced collapse of massive white dwarfs and the fate of some massive stars. We discuss the ongoing challenge of chemical diffusion in the strongly coupled plasma regime, and exhibit improvements in MESA that now allow for the simulation of radiative levitation of heavy elements in hot stars. We close by noting that the MESA software infrastructure provides bit-for-bit consistency for all results across all the supported platforms, a profound enabling capability for accelerating MESA's development.

  10. Measuring the Extent of European State Aid Control : An Econometric Analysis of the European Commission Decisions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brouwer, E.; Ozbugday, F.C.

    2011-01-01

    This paper provides an analysis of the European Commission (EC) decisions on state aid control using data on 550 state aid cases approved by the EC between 1998 and 2009. More specifically, we measure the determinants of the duration of state aid, total budget of state aid and daily budget of state

  11. Measuring the Extent of European State Aid Control : An Econometric Analysis of the European Commission Decisions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brouwer, E.; Ozbugday, F.C.

    2010-01-01

    This paper provides an analysis of the European Commission (EC) decisions on state aid control using data on 550 state aid cases approved by the EC between 1998 and 2009. More specifically, we measure the determinants of the duration of state aid, total budget of state aid and daily budget of state

  12. 75 FR 35457 - Draft of the 2010 Causal Analysis/Diagnosis Decision Information System (CADDIS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-06-22

    ... AGENCY Draft of the 2010 Causal Analysis/Diagnosis Decision Information System (CADDIS) AGENCY... investigators find, access, organize, and share information useful for causal evaluations in aquatic systems... ``anonymous access'' system, which means that EPA will not know your identity or contact information...

  13. The adoption of total cost of ownership for sourcing decisions - a structural equations analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wouters, Marc; Anderson, James C.; Wynstra, Finn

    2005-01-01

    This study investigates the adoption of total cost of ownership (TCO) analysis to improve sourcing decisions. TCO can be seen as an application of activity based costing (ABC) that quantifies the costs that are involved in acquiring and using purchased goods or services. TCO supports purchasing deci

  14. Climate Risk Informed Decision Analysis: A Hypothetical Application to the Waas Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gilroy, Kristin; Mens, Marjolein; Haasnoot, Marjolijn; Jeuken, Ad

    2016-04-01

    More frequent and intense hydrologic events under climate change are expected to enhance water security and flood risk management challenges worldwide. Traditional planning approaches must be adapted to address climate change and develop solutions with an appropriate level of robustness and flexibility. The Climate Risk Informed Decision Analysis (CRIDA) method is a novel planning approach embodying a suite of complementary methods, including decision scaling and adaptation pathways. Decision scaling offers a bottom-up approach to assess risk and tailors the complexity of the analysis to the problem at hand and the available capacity. Through adaptation pathway,s an array of future strategies towards climate robustness are developed, ranging in flexibility and immediacy of investments. Flexible pathways include transfer points to other strategies to ensure that the system can be adapted if future conditions vary from those expected. CRIDA combines these two approaches in a stakeholder driven process which guides decision makers through the planning and decision process, taking into account how the confidence in the available science, the consequences in the system, and the capacity of institutions should influence strategy selection. In this presentation, we will explain the CRIDA method and compare it to existing planning processes, such as the US Army Corps of Engineers Principles and Guidelines as well as Integrated Water Resources Management Planning. Then, we will apply the approach to a hypothetical case study for the Waas Region, a large downstream river basin facing rapid development threatened by increased flood risks. Through the case study, we will demonstrate how a stakeholder driven process can be used to evaluate system robustness to climate change; develop adaptation pathways for multiple objectives and criteria; and illustrate how varying levels of confidence, consequences, and capacity would play a role in the decision making process, specifically

  15. tropical cyclone risk analysis: a decisive role of its track

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chelsea Nam, C.; Park, Doo-Sun R.; Ho, Chang-Hoi

    2016-04-01

    The tracks of 85 tropical cyclones (TCs) that made landfall to South Korea for the period 1979-2010 are classified into four clusters by using a fuzzy c-means clustering method. The four clusters are characterized by 1) east-short, 2) east-long, 3) west-long, and 4) west-short based on the moving routes around Korean peninsula. We conducted risk comparison analysis for these four clusters regarding their hazards, exposure, and damages. Here, hazard parameters are calculated from two different sources independently, one from the best-track data (BT) and the other from the 60 weather stations over the country (WS). The results show distinct characteristics of the four clusters in terms of the hazard parameters and economic losses (EL), suggesting that there is a clear track-dependency in the overall TC risk. It is appeared that whether there occurred an "effective collision" overweighs the intensity of the TC per se. The EL ranking did not agree with the BT parameters (maximum wind speed, central pressure, or storm radius), but matches to WS parameter (especially, daily accumulated rainfall and TC-influenced period). The west-approaching TCs (i.e. west-long and west-short clusters) generally recorded larger EL than the east-approaching TCs (i.e. east-short and east-long clusters), although the east-long clusters are the strongest in BT point of view. This can be explained through the spatial distribution of the WS parameters and the regional EL maps corresponding to it. West-approaching TCs accompanied heavy rainfall on the southern regions with the helps of the topographic effect on their tracks, and of the extended stay on the Korean Peninsula in their extratropical transition, that were not allowed to the east-approaching TCs. On the other hand, some regions had EL that are not directly proportional to the hazards, and this is partly attributed to spatial disparity in wealth and vulnerability. Correlation analysis also revealed the importance of rainfall; daily

  16. East Mesa geothermal pump test facility (EMPTF). Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Olander, R.G.; Roberts, G.K.

    1984-11-28

    The design, fabrication and installation of a geothermal pump test facility (EMPFT) at the DOE geothermal site at East Mesa, California which is capable of testing 70 to 750 horsepower downwell pumps in a controlled geothermal environment were completed. The facility consists of a skid-mounted brine control module, a 160 foot below test well section, a hydraulic turbine for power recovery, a gantry-mounted hoist for pump handling and a 3-phase, 480 VAC, 1200 amp power supply to handle pump electric requirements. Geothermal brine is supplied to the EMPTF from one of the facility wells at East Mesa. The EMPTF is designed with a great amount of flexibility. The 20-inch diameter test well can accommodate a wide variety of pumps. The controls are interactive and can be adjusted to obtain a full complement of pump operation data, or set to maintain constant conditions to allow long-term testing with a minimum of operator support. The hydraulic turbine allows the EMPTF user to recover approximately 46% of the input pump power to help defray the operating cost of the unit. The hoist is provided for material handling and pump servicing and reduces the equipment that the user must supply for pump installation, inspection and removal.

  17. East Mesa geothermal pump test facility (EMPTF). Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Olander, R.G.; Roberts, G.K.

    1984-11-28

    Barber-Nichols has completed the design, fabrication and installation of a geothermal pump test facility at the DOE geothermal site at East Mesa, California which is capable of testing 70 to 750 horsepower downwell pumps in a controlled geothermal environment. The facility consists of a skid-mounted brine control module, a 160 foot below ground test well section, a hydraulic turbine for power recovery, a gantry-mounted hoist for pump handling and a 3-phase, 480 VAC, 1200 amp power supply to handle pump electric requirements. Geothermal brine is supplied to the EMPTF from one of the facility wells at East Mesa. The EMPTF is designed with a great amount of flexibility to attract the largest number of potential users. The 20-inch diameter test well can accommodate a wide variety of pumps. The controls are interactive and can be adjusted to obtain a full complement of pump operation data, or set to maintain constant conditions to allow long-term testing with a minimum of operator support. The hydraulic turbine allows the EMPTF user to recover approximately 46% of the input pump power to help defray the operating cost of the unit. The hoist is provided for material handling and pump servicing and reduces the equipment that the user must supply for pump installation, inspection and removal.

  18. Quantitative ultrasound texture analysis for clinical decision making support

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Jie Ying; Beland, Michael; Konrad, Joseph; Tuomi, Adam; Glidden, David; Grand, David; Merck, Derek

    2015-03-01

    We propose a general ultrasound (US) texture-analysis and machine-learning framework for detecting the presence of disease that is suitable for clinical application across clinicians, disease types, devices, and operators. Its stages are image selection, image filtering, ROI selection, feature parameterization, and classification. Each stage is modular and can be replaced with alternate methods. Thus, this framework is adaptable to a wide range of tasks. Our two preliminary clinical targets are hepatic steatosis and adenomyosis diagnosis. For steatosis, we collected US images from 288 patients and their pathology-determined values of steatosis (%) from biopsies. Two radiologists independently reviewed all images and identified the region of interest (ROI) most representative of the hepatic echotexture for each patient. To parameterize the images into comparable quantities, we filter the US images at multiple scales for various texture responses. For each response, we collect a histogram of pixel features within the ROI, and parameterize it as a Gaussian function using its mean, standard deviation, kurtosis, and skew to create a 36-feature vector. Our algorithm uses a support vector machine (SVM) for classification. Using a threshold of 10%, we achieved 72.81% overall accuracy, 76.18% sensitivity, and 65.96% specificity in identifying steatosis with leave-ten-out cross-validation (p<0.0001). Extending this framework to adenomyosis, we identified 38 patients with MR-confirmed findings of adenomyosis and previous US studies and 50 controls. A single rater picked the best US-image and ROI for each case. Using the same processing pipeline, we obtained 76.14% accuracy, 86.00% sensitivity, and 63.16% specificity with leave-one-out cross-validation (p<0.0001).

  19. An Integrated Approach with Group Decision-Making for Strategy Selection in SWOT Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    İhsan Yüksel

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available The main aim of this study was to improve the analytical dimension of SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats analysis with group decision-making, which underlines the analysis of internal and external environments that in turn, will improve the definition of corporate strategy within the strategic planning process. The main issue of the study was how to select the most appropriate strategy by taking into consideration different effects of each factor of SWOT analysis on strategy selection. The proposed model addresses strengths and opportunities as benefits and weaknesses and threats as costs. The model was solved with analytic network process (ANP and fuzzy technique for order performance by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS technique with group decision-making. The integrated ANP and Fuzzy TOPSIS model proposed at the end of the present study has been shown to be applicable to SWOT analysis and strategy selection.

  20. Foundations of risk analysis a knowledge and decision-oriented perspective

    CERN Document Server

    Aven

    2004-01-01

    Everyday we face decisions that carry an element of risk and uncertainty. The ability to analyse, communicate and control the level of risk entailed by these decisions remains one of the most pressing challenges to the analyst, scientist and manager. This book presents the foundational issues in risk analysis - expressing risk, understanding what risk means, building risk models, addressing uncertainty, and applying probability models to real problems. The principal aim of the book is to give the reader the knowledge and basic thinking they require to approach risk and uncertainty to support d

  1. Risk-Based Prioritization of Research for Aviation Security Using Logic-Evolved Decision Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eisenhawer, S. W.; Bott, T. F.; Sorokach, M. R.; Jones, F. P.; Foggia, J. R.

    2004-01-01

    The National Aeronautics and Space Administration is developing advanced technologies to reduce terrorist risk for the air transportation system. Decision support tools are needed to help allocate assets to the most promising research. An approach to rank ordering technologies (using logic-evolved decision analysis), with risk reduction as the metric, is presented. The development of a spanning set of scenarios using a logic-gate tree is described. Baseline risk for these scenarios is evaluated with an approximate reasoning model. Illustrative risk and risk reduction results are presented.

  2. Innovation and decision-making process in reverse logistics: a bibliometric analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Fernando Antonio Guimarães Tenório; Débora Eleonora Pereira da Silva; Antonio Luiz Rocha Dacorso

    2014-01-01

    This work aimed to make a bibliometric analysis on empirical studies that focus on the reverse logistics process. Papers published in two major events of management and a production engineering were collected during the years 2007-2012. To perform the analysis assumptions were adopted as the concepts of innovation and decision-making. 43 articles were analyzed and it was found that, in most cases, organizations choose to deploy reverse logistics as a means to solving problems related to envir...

  3. Enlistment Decisions of the Millennial Generation: An Analysis of Micro-Level Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    2007-09-01

    in Culture and Power 13: 53-53-72. Raines, Claire. Generations at work: Managing millenials . 2002 [cited July 13, 2007]. Available from http...THE MILLENNIAL GENERATION : AN ANALYSIS OF MICRO-LEVEL DATA by Kevin M. Halfacre September 2007 Thesis Advisor: Stephen Mehay Co...TYPE AND DATES COVERED Master’s Thesis 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Enlistment Decisions of the Millennial Generation : An Analysis of Micro-Level Data 6

  4. Application of probabilistic and decision analysis methods to structural mechanics and materials sciences problems. Volume 2. Resource document

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Garrick, B.J.; Tagart, S.W. Jr. (eds.)

    1984-08-01

    This volume presents background resource material on the field of structural reliability assessment and its relationship to the discipline of probabilistic risk analysis and decision analysis. First, general background material is presented on the field of structural reliability assessment. Next, some sample applications of probabilistic and decision analysis methods are presented. A hypothetical example illustrates how a probabilistic approach could be used in structural design, and a brief description is given of how the results of structural reliability analyses can be used as input to a PRA. A case study is described on the use of decision analysis to select strategies for dealing with intergranular stress corrosion cracking. The use of decision analysis to evaluate the merits of different possible research tasks is also discussed. A discussion of decision analysis is then presented. Finally, the document presents a discussion of open issues in the area of structural reliability.

  5. Climate Risk Informed Decision Analysis (CRIDA): A novel practical guidance for Climate Resilient Investments and Planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeuken, Ad; Mendoza, Guillermo; Matthews, John; Ray, Patrick; Haasnoot, Marjolijn; Gilroy, Kristin; Olsen, Rolf; Kucharski, John; Stakhiv, Gene; Cushing, Janet; Brown, Casey

    2016-04-01

    over time. They are part of the Dutch adaptive planning approach Adaptive Delta Management, executed and develop by the Dutch Delta program. Both decision scaling and adaptation pathways have been piloted in studies worldwide. The objective of CRIDA is to mainstream effective climate adaptation for professional water managers. The CRIDA publication, due in april 2016, follows the generic water design planning design cycle. At each step, CRIDA describes stepwise guidance for incorporating climate robustness: problem definition, stress test, alternatives formulation and recommendation, evaluation and selection. In the presentation the origin, goal, steps and practical tools available at each step of CRIDA will be explained. In two other abstracts ("Climate Risk Informed Decision Analysis: A Hypothetical Application to the Waas Region" by Gilroy et al., "The Application of Climate Risk Informed Decision Analysis to the Ioland Water Treatment Plant in Lusaka, Zambia, by Kucharski et al.), the application of CRIDA to cases is explained

  6. Spatially explicit multi-criteria decision analysis for managing vector-borne diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hongoh, Valerie; Hoen, Anne Gatewood; Aenishaenslin, Cécile; Waaub, Jean-Philippe; Bélanger, Denise; Michel, Pascal

    2011-12-29

    The complex epidemiology of vector-borne diseases creates significant challenges in the design and delivery of prevention and control strategies, especially in light of rapid social and environmental changes. Spatial models for predicting disease risk based on environmental factors such as climate and landscape have been developed for a number of important vector-borne diseases. The resulting risk maps have proven value for highlighting areas for targeting public health programs. However, these methods generally only offer technical information on the spatial distribution of disease risk itself, which may be incomplete for making decisions in a complex situation. In prioritizing surveillance and intervention strategies, decision-makers often also need to consider spatially explicit information on other important dimensions, such as the regional specificity of public acceptance, population vulnerability, resource availability, intervention effectiveness, and land use. There is a need for a unified strategy for supporting public health decision making that integrates available data for assessing spatially explicit disease risk, with other criteria, to implement effective prevention and control strategies. Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is a decision support tool that allows for the consideration of diverse quantitative and qualitative criteria using both data-driven and qualitative indicators for evaluating alternative strategies with transparency and stakeholder participation. Here we propose a MCDA-based approach to the development of geospatial models and spatially explicit decision support tools for the management of vector-borne diseases. We describe the conceptual framework that MCDA offers as well as technical considerations, approaches to implementation and expected outcomes. We conclude that MCDA is a powerful tool that offers tremendous potential for use in public health decision-making in general and vector-borne disease management in particular.

  7. Spatially explicit multi-criteria decision analysis for managing vector-borne diseases

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hongoh Valerie

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract The complex epidemiology of vector-borne diseases creates significant challenges in the design and delivery of prevention and control strategies, especially in light of rapid social and environmental changes. Spatial models for predicting disease risk based on environmental factors such as climate and landscape have been developed for a number of important vector-borne diseases. The resulting risk maps have proven value for highlighting areas for targeting public health programs. However, these methods generally only offer technical information on the spatial distribution of disease risk itself, which may be incomplete for making decisions in a complex situation. In prioritizing surveillance and intervention strategies, decision-makers often also need to consider spatially explicit information on other important dimensions, such as the regional specificity of public acceptance, population vulnerability, resource availability, intervention effectiveness, and land use. There is a need for a unified strategy for supporting public health decision making that integrates available data for assessing spatially explicit disease risk, with other criteria, to implement effective prevention and control strategies. Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA is a decision support tool that allows for the consideration of diverse quantitative and qualitative criteria using both data-driven and qualitative indicators for evaluating alternative strategies with transparency and stakeholder participation. Here we propose a MCDA-based approach to the development of geospatial models and spatially explicit decision support tools for the management of vector-borne diseases. We describe the conceptual framework that MCDA offers as well as technical considerations, approaches to implementation and expected outcomes. We conclude that MCDA is a powerful tool that offers tremendous potential for use in public health decision-making in general and vector

  8. Project management in mine actions using Multi-Criteria-Analysis-based decision support system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marko Mladineo

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, a Web-based Decision Support System (Web DSS, that supports humanitarian demining operations and restoration of mine-contaminated areas, is presented. The financial shortage usually triggers a need for priority setting in Project Management in Mine actions. As part of the FP7 Project TIRAMISU, a specialized Web DSS has been developed to achieve a fully transparent priority setting process. It allows stakeholders and donors to actively join the decision making process using a user-friendly and intuitive Web application. The main advantage of this Web DSS is its unique way of managing a mine action project using Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA, namely the PROMETHEE method, in order to select priorities for demining actions. The developed Web DSS allows decision makers to use several predefined scenarios (different criteria weights or to develop their own, so it allows project managers to compare different demining possibilities with ease.

  9. Regularized discriminant analysis for multi-sensor decision fusion and damage detection with Lamb waves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mishra, Spandan; Vanli, O. Arda; Huffer, Fred W.; Jung, Sungmoon

    2016-04-01

    In this study we propose a regularized linear discriminant analysis approach for damage detection which does not require an intermediate feature extraction step and therefore more efficient in handling data with high-dimensionality. A robust discriminant model is obtained by shrinking of the covariance matrix to a diagonal matrix and thresholding redundant predictors without hurting the predictive power of the model. The shrinking and threshold parameters of the discriminant function (decision boundary) are estimated to minimize the classification error. Furthermore, it is shown how the damage classification achieved by the proposed method can be extended to multiple sensors by following a Bayesian decision-fusion formulation. The detection probability of each sensor is used as a prior condition to estimate the posterior detection probability of the entire network and the posterior detection probability is used as a quantitative basis to make the final decision about the damage.

  10. OPTIMAL BUSINESS DECISION SYSTEM FOR MULTINATIONALS: A MULTIFACTOR ANALYSIS OF SELECTED MANUFACTURING FIRMS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oforegbunam Thaddeus Ebiringa

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Traditional MIS has been made more effective through the integration of organization, human andtechnology factors into a decision matrix. The study is motivated by the need to find an optimal mixof interactive factors that will optimize the result of decision to apply ICT to manufacturingprocesses. The study used Factor analysis model based on the sampled opinion of forty (40operations/production managers and two thousand (2000 production line workers of three leadingmanufacturing firms: Uniliver Plc., PZ Plc, and Nigerian Breweries Plc operating in Aba IndustrialEstate of Nigeria. The results shows that a progressive mixed factor loading matrix, based on thepreferred ordered importance of resources factors in the formulation, implementation, monitoring,control and evaluation of ICT projects of the selected firms led to an average capability improvementof 0.764 in decision efficiency. This is considered strategic for achieving balanced corporate growthand development.

  11. INTEGRATION OF MULTICRITERIA ANALYSIS INTO DECISION SUPPORT CONCEPT FOR URBAN ROAD INFRASTRUCTURE MANAGEMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Niksa Jajac

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Urban road infrastructure management deals with complex decision making process. There are several reasons for a complexity such as: multi-disciplinarity, lots of participants, huge quantity of information, limited budget, conflict goals and criteria. These facts indicate that decision making processes in urban road infrastructure management belong to ill-defined problems. In order to cope with such complexity and to help managers during decision making processes this research proposes an application of multicriteria methods. Therefore, a generic concept of decision support for urban road infrastructure management based on multicriteria analysis is proposed. Three multicriteria methods: AHP, SAW and PROMETHHE, in a combination with 0-1 programming are used. The main advantage of an application of multicriteria analysis is that all stakeholders could be objectively included into decision process. Therefore, setting up of criteria weights involves opinions from all stakeholders’ groups (stakeholders are divided into three characteristic groups. Evaluation of criteria importance (weights is based on three sets of opinions processed by Analytic Hierarchic Processing (AHP method. Three sets of criteria are then processed by Simple Additive Weighting (SAW method resulting in a final set of criteria weights. By using SAW method, relative importance of opinions of all three stakeholders’ groups is introduced. Collected data are then processed by PROMETHEE multicriteria methods. Proposed decision support concept is validated on the problem of improvement of one part of an urban road infrastructure system for a large urban area of town of Split. The concept is efficiently applied on several problems regarding parking garages: location selection, sub-project ranking, definition of an investment strategy.

  12. Pattern Analysis and Decision Support for Cancer through Clinico-Genomic Profiles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Exarchos, Themis P.; Giannakeas, Nikolaos; Goletsis, Yorgos; Papaloukas, Costas; Fotiadis, Dimitrios I.

    Advances in genome technology are playing a growing role in medicine and healthcare. With the development of new technologies and opportunities for large-scale analysis of the genome, genomic data have a clear impact on medicine. Cancer prognostics and therapeutics are among the first major test cases for genomic medicine, given that all types of cancer are related with genomic instability. In this paper we present a novel system for pattern analysis and decision support in cancer. The system integrates clinical data from electronic health records and genomic data. Pattern analysis and data mining methods are applied to these integrated data and the discovered knowledge is used for cancer decision support. Through this integration, conclusions can be drawn for early diagnosis, staging and cancer treatment.

  13. GPs' decision-making when prescribing medicines for breastfeeding women: Content analysis of a survey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amir Lisa H

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Many breastfeeding women seek medical care from general practitioners (GPs for various health problems and GPs may consider prescribing medicines in these consultations. Prescribing medicines to a breastfeeding mother may lead to untimely cessation of breastfeeding or a breastfeeding mother may be denied medicines due to the possible risk to her infant, both of which may lead to unwanted consequences. Information on factors governing GPs' decision-making and their views in such situations is limited. Methods GPs providing shared maternity care at the Royal Women's Hospital, Melbourne were surveyed using an anonymous postal survey to determine their knowledge, attitudes and practices on medicines and breastfeeding, in 2007/2008 (n = 640. Content analysis of their response to a question concerning decision-making about the use of medicine for a breastfeeding woman was conducted. A thematic network was constructed with basic, organising and global themes. Results 335 (52% GPs responded to the survey, and 253 (76% provided information on the last time they had to decide about the use of medicine for a breastfeeding woman. Conditions reported were mastitis (24%, other infections (24% and depressive disorders (21%. The global theme that emerged was "complexity of managing risk in prescribing for breastfeeding women". The organising themes were: certainty around decision-making; uncertainty around decision-making; need for drug information to be available, consistent and reliable; joint decision-making; the vulnerable "third party" and infant feeding decision. Decision-making is a spectrum from a straight forward decision, such as treatment of mastitis, to a complicated one requiring multiple inputs and consideration. GPs use more information seeking and collaboration in decision-making when they perceive the problem to be more complex, for example, in postnatal depression. Conclusion GPs feel that prescribing medicines for

  14. Parent-son decision-making about human papillomavirus vaccination: a qualitative analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexander Andreia B

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Licensed for use in males in 2009, Human Papillomavirus (HPV vaccination rates in adolescent males are extremely low. Literature on HPV vaccination focuses on females, adult males, or parents of adolescent males, without including adolescent males or the dynamics of the parent-son interaction that may influence vaccine decision-making. The purpose of this paper is to examine the decision-making process of parent-son dyads when deciding whether or not to get vaccinated against HPV. Methods Twenty-one adolescent males (ages 13–17, with no previous HPV vaccination, and their parents/guardians were recruited from adolescent primary care clinics serving low to middle income families in a large Midwestern city. Dyad members participated in separate semi-structured interviews assessing the relative role of the parent and son in the decision regarding HPV vaccination. Interviews were recorded, transcribed, and coded using inductive content analysis. Results Parents and sons focused on protection as a reason for vaccination; parents felt a need to protect their child, while sons wanted to protect their own health. Parents and sons commonly misinterpreted the information about the vaccine. Sons were concerned about an injection in the penis, while some parents and sons thought the vaccine would protect them against other sexually transmitted infections including Herpes, Gonorrhea, and HIV. Parents and sons recalled that the vaccine prevented genital warts rather than cancer. The vaccine decision-making process was rapid and dynamic, including an initial reaction to the recommendation for HPV vaccine, discussion between parent and son, and the final vaccine decision. Provider input was weighed in instances of initial disagreement. Many boys felt that this was the first health care decision that they had been involved in. Dyads which reported shared decision-making were more likely to openly communicate about sexual issues than those

  15. Evaluation of SOVAT: An OLAP-GIS decision support system for community health assessment data analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Parmanto Bambang

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Data analysis in community health assessment (CHA involves the collection, integration, and analysis of large numerical and spatial data sets in order to identify health priorities. Geographic Information Systems (GIS enable for management and analysis using spatial data, but have limitations in performing analysis of numerical data because of its traditional database architecture. On-Line Analytical Processing (OLAP is a multidimensional datawarehouse designed to facilitate querying of large numerical data. Coupling the spatial capabilities of GIS with the numerical analysis of OLAP, might enhance CHA data analysis. OLAP-GIS systems have been developed by university researchers and corporations, yet their potential for CHA data analysis is not well understood. To evaluate the potential of an OLAP-GIS decision support system for CHA problem solving, we compared OLAP-GIS to the standard information technology (IT currently used by many public health professionals. Methods SOVAT, an OLAP-GIS decision support system developed at the University of Pittsburgh, was compared against current IT for data analysis for CHA. For this study, current IT was considered the combined use of SPSS and GIS ("SPSS-GIS". Graduate students, researchers, and faculty in the health sciences at the University of Pittsburgh were recruited. Each round consisted of: an instructional video of the system being evaluated, two practice tasks, five assessment tasks, and one post-study questionnaire. Objective and subjective measurement included: task completion time, success in answering the tasks, and system satisfaction. Results Thirteen individuals participated. Inferential statistics were analyzed using linear mixed model analysis. SOVAT was statistically significant (α = .01 from SPSS-GIS for satisfaction and time (p Conclusion Using SOVAT, tasks were completed more efficiently, with a higher rate of success, and with greater satisfaction, than the

  16. An Analytic Hierarchy Process Analysis: Application to Subscriber Retention Decisions in the Nigerian Mobile Telecommunications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adebiyi Sulaimon Olanrewaju

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The introduction of mobile number portability (MNP in the Nigerian telecommunications industry has brought a new challenge for mobile operators. This study investigates the use of Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP in customer retention decisions in the Nigerian telecommunication industry using a cross-sectional survey design. Primary data were obtained through questionnaires administered to 480 mobile telecommunications subscribers in six tertiary institutions located in Lagos State, Nigeria. These educational institutions were chosen using a multistage sampling technique. Of 438 questionnaires received from subscribers, 408 were valid. Based on this sample data an AHP model was built to assess the determinants of customer retention decisions. Next, eigen values, an eigen vector and maximum lambda (λMax were obtained using the AHP analysis for the matrices. This analysis shows that customers considered call quality as the important in the retention decision. We conclude that AHP is a meaningful tool for determining what motivates retention decisions, that can help network operators formulate effective customer retention strategies.

  17. The use of multi-criteria decision analysis to tackle waste management problems: a literature review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Achillas, Charisios; Moussiopoulos, Nicolas; Karagiannidis, Avraam; Banias, Georgias; Perkoulidis, George

    2013-02-01

    Problems in waste management have become more and more complex during recent decades. The increasing volumes of waste produced and social environmental consciousness present prominent drivers for environmental managers towards the achievement of a sustainable waste management scheme. However, in practice, there are many factors and influences - often mutually conflicting - criteria for finding solutions in real-life applications. This paper presents a review of the literature on multi-criteria decision aiding in waste management problems for all reported waste streams. Despite limitations, which are clearly stated, most of the work published in this field is reviewed. The present review aims to provide environmental managers and decision-makers with a thorough list of practical applications of the multi-criteria decision analysis techniques that are used to solve real-life waste management problems, as well as the criteria that are mostly employed in such applications according to the nature of the problem under study. Moreover, the paper explores the advantages and disadvantages of using multi-criteria decision analysis techniques in waste management problems in comparison to other available alternatives.

  18. LIMITS OF SWOT ANALYSIS AND THEIR IMPACT ON DECISIONS IN EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Florin POPESCU

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, threats analysis is useful in the decision-making process – crucial to any organization manager and/or strategist. This study aims to add value to the existing literature on SWOT, indicating its use and limitations, showing the need to link SWOT to other strategic tools and methodologies. As the current environment is turbulent and unpredictable, and economic cycles no longer comply with traditional rules, the precaution has become extremely important. That’s why SWOT should be supplemented with newer dynamic analysis capabilities and strategy tools, as early warning and opportunities system (EWOS, which can provide crucial inputs for scenario building, strategic thinking and decisions. EWOS is a novel approach based on three concepts that contribute to the ability of organization/project managers to develop outstanding capacity to "understand" and "benefit" in identifying opportunities and threats: (i business and competitive intelligence; (ii early warning thinking; (iii strategic thinking in decision making process. EWOS is of practical use for strategists and decision makers.

  19. Adding value in oil and gas by applying decision analysis methodologies: case history

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Marot, Nicolas [Petro Andina Resources Inc., Alberta (Canada); Francese, Gaston [Tandem Decision Solutions, Buenos Aires (Argentina)

    2008-07-01

    Petro Andina Resources Ltd. together with Tandem Decision Solutions developed a strategic long range plan applying decision analysis methodology. The objective was to build a robust and fully integrated strategic plan that accomplishes company growth goals to set the strategic directions for the long range. The stochastic methodology and the Integrated Decision Management (IDM{sup TM}) staged approach allowed the company to visualize the associated value and risk of the different strategies while achieving organizational alignment, clarity of action and confidence in the path forward. A decision team involving jointly PAR representatives and Tandem consultants was established to carry out this four month project. Discovery and framing sessions allow the team to disrupt the status quo, discuss near and far reaching ideas and gather the building blocks from which creative strategic alternatives were developed. A comprehensive stochastic valuation model was developed to assess the potential value of each strategy applying simulation tools, sensitivity analysis tools and contingency planning techniques. Final insights and results have been used to populate the final strategic plan presented to the company board providing confidence to the team, assuring that the work embodies the best available ideas, data and expertise, and that the proposed strategy was ready to be elaborated into an optimized course of action. (author)

  20. Nature and extent of lava-flow aquifers beneath Pahute Mesa, Nevada Test Site

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Prothro, L.B.; Drellack, S.L. Jr.

    1997-09-01

    Work is currently underway within the Underground Test Area subproject of the US Department of Energy/Nevada Operations Office Environmental Restoration Program to develop corrective action plans in support of the overall corrective action strategy for the Nevada Test Site as established in the Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order (FFACO, 1996). A closure plan is currently being developed for Pahute Mesa, which has been identified in the FFACO as consisting of the Western and Central Pahute Mesa Corrective Action Units. Part of this effort requires that hydrogeologic data be compiled for inclusion in a regional model that will be used to predict a contaminant boundary for these Corrective Action Units. Hydrogeologic maps have been prepared for use in the model to define the nature and extent of aquifers and confining units that might influence the flow of contaminated groundwater from underground nuclear tests conducted at Pahute Mesa. Much of the groundwater flow beneath Pahute Mesa occurs within lava-flow aquifers. An understanding of the distribution and hydraulic character of these important hydrogeologic units is necessary to accurately model groundwater flow beneath Pahute Mesa. This report summarizes the results of a study by Bechtel Nevada geologists to better define the hydrogeology of lava-flow aquifers at Pahute Mesa. The purpose of this study was twofold: (1) aid in the development of the hydrostratigraphic framework for Pahute Mesa, and (2) provide information on the distribution and hydraulic character of lava-flow aquifers beneath Pahute Mesa for more accurate computer modeling of the Western and Central Pahute Mesa Corrective Action Units.

  1. The neural correlates of moral decision-making: A systematic review and meta-analysis of moral evaluations and response decision judgements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garrigan, Beverley; Adlam, Anna L R; Langdon, Peter E

    2016-10-01

    The aims of this systematic review were to determine: (a) which brain areas are consistently more active when making (i) moral response decisions, defined as choosing a response to a moral dilemma, or deciding whether to accept a proposed solution, or (ii) moral evaluations, defined as judging the appropriateness of another's actions in a moral dilemma, rating moral statements as right or wrong, or identifying important moral issues; and (b) shared and significantly different activation patterns for these two types of moral judgements. A systematic search of the literature returned 28 experiments. Activation likelihood estimate analysis identified the brain areas commonly more active for moral response decisions and for moral evaluations. Conjunction analysis revealed shared activation for both types of moral judgement in the left middle temporal gyrus, cingulate gyrus, and medial frontal gyrus. Contrast analyses found no significant clusters of increased activation for the moral evaluations-moral response decisions contrast, but found that moral response decisions additionally activated the left and right middle temporal gyrus and the right precuneus. Making one's own moral decisions involves different brain areas compared to judging the moral actions of others, implying that these judgements may involve different processes.

  2. Intrinsic Josephson effects in submicrometre Bi2212 mesas fabricated by using focused ion beam etching

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Winkler, D.; Mros, N.; Tarte, E.J.; Yurgens, A.; Krasnov, V.M. [Department of Microelectronics and Nanoscience, Chalmers University of Technology and Goeteborg University, SE-412 96 Goeteborg (Sweden); Foord, D.T.; Booij, W.E.; Blamire, M.G. [IRC in Superconductivity, University of Cambridge, Madingley Road, Cambridge CB3 0HE (United Kingdom)

    1999-11-01

    We have investigated the current-voltage (I-V) characteristics of sub-{mu}m sized mesas made on the surface of Bi{sub 2}Sr{sub 2}CaCu{sub 2}O{sub 8} (Bi2212) single crystals. The mesas were fabricated using focused ion beam etching. The samples showed excellent I-V characteristics and their conductance-voltage (G-V) curves were measured from above the transition temperature down to 4.2 K. New ways of making annular mesas with diameters down to 0.5 {mu}m were also investigated. (author)

  3. Lateral growth of GaN by liquid phase electroepitaxy using mesa-shaped substrate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kambayashi, Daisuke; Takakura, Hiroyuki; Tomita, Masafumi; Iwakawa, Muneki; Mizuno, Yosuke; Maruyama, Takahiro; Naritsuka, Shigeya

    2016-10-01

    GaN microchannel epitaxy (MCE) was performed using a mesa-shaped substrate and liquid phase electroepitaxy. A flat and wide MCE layer was successfully obtained with a rectangular shape, which is formed by ±c-planes on both the top and bottom surfaces. MCE growth proceeded mainly in the lateral direction by the formation of these planes. Cathodoluminescence measurements showed that the laterally grown layers were almost free of dislocations, and that the dislocations in the mesa areas were confined by the vertical sides of the mesas. In the case of inclined sides, the dislocations would be expected to bend and spread into the laterally grown areas.

  4. A multicriteria decision analysis model and risk assessment framework for carbon capture and storage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Humphries Choptiany, John Michael; Pelot, Ronald

    2014-09-01

    Multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) has been applied to various energy problems to incorporate a variety of qualitative and quantitative criteria, usually spanning environmental, social, engineering, and economic fields. MCDA and associated methods such as life-cycle assessments and cost-benefit analysis can also include risk analysis to address uncertainties in criteria estimates. One technology now being assessed to help mitigate climate change is carbon capture and storage (CCS). CCS is a new process that captures CO2 emissions from fossil-fueled power plants and injects them into geological reservoirs for storage. It presents a unique challenge to decisionmakers (DMs) due to its technical complexity, range of environmental, social, and economic impacts, variety of stakeholders, and long time spans. The authors have developed a risk assessment model using a MCDA approach for CCS decisions such as selecting between CO2 storage locations and choosing among different mitigation actions for reducing risks. The model includes uncertainty measures for several factors, utility curve representations of all variables, Monte Carlo simulation, and sensitivity analysis. This article uses a CCS scenario example to demonstrate the development and application of the model based on data derived from published articles and publicly available sources. The model allows high-level DMs to better understand project risks and the tradeoffs inherent in modern, complex energy decisions.

  5. Using multi-criteria decision analysis to assess the vulnerability of drinking water utilities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joerin, Florent; Cool, Geneviève; Rodriguez, Manuel J; Gignac, Marc; Bouchard, Christian

    2010-07-01

    Outbreaks of microbiological waterborne disease have increased governmental concern regarding the importance of drinking water safety. Considering the multi-barrier approach to safe drinking water may improve management decisions to reduce contamination risks. However, the application of this approach must consider numerous and diverse kinds of information simultaneously. This makes it difficult for authorities to apply the approach to decision making. For this reason, multi-criteria decision analysis can be helpful in applying the multi-barrier approach to vulnerability assessment. The goal of this study is to propose an approach based on a multi-criteria analysis method in order to rank drinking water systems (DWUs) based on their vulnerability to microbiological contamination. This approach is illustrated with an application carried out on 28 DWUs supplied by groundwater in the Province of Québec, Canada. The multi-criteria analysis method chosen is measuring attractiveness by a categorical based evaluation technique methodology allowing the assessment of a microbiological vulnerability indicator (MVI) for each DWU. Results are presented on a scale ranking DWUs from less vulnerable to most vulnerable to contamination. MVI results are tested using a sensitivity analysis on barrier weights and they are also compared with historical data on contamination at the utilities. The investigation demonstrates that MVI provides a good representation of the vulnerability of DWUs to microbiological contamination.

  6. GIS Based Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis For Cement Plant Site Selection For Cuddalore District

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chhabra, A.

    2015-12-01

    India's cement industry is a vital part of its economy, providing employment to more than a million people. On the back of growing demands, due to increased construction and infrastructural activities cement market in India is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.96 percent during the period 2014-2019. In this study, GIS-based spatial Multi Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) is used to determine the optimum and alternative sites to setup a cement plant. This technique contains a set of evaluation criteria which are quantifiable indicators of the extent to which decision objectives are realized. In intersection with available GIS (Geographical Information System) and local ancillary data, the outputs of image analysis serves as input for the multi-criteria decision making system. Moreover, the following steps were performed so as to represent the criteria in GIS layers, which underwent the GIS analysis in order to get several potential sites. Satellite imagery from LANDSAT 8 and ASTER DEM were used for the analysis. Cuddalore District in Tamil Nadu was selected as the study site as limestone mining is already being carried out in that region which meets the criteria of raw material for cement production. Several other criteria considered were land use land cover (LULC) classification (built-up area, river, forest cover, wet land, barren land, harvest land and agriculture land), slope, proximity to road, railway and drainage networks.

  7. MESAFace, a graphical interface to analyze the MESA output

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giannotti, M.; Wise, M.; Mohammed, A.

    2013-04-01

    MESA (Modules for Experiments in Stellar Astrophysics) has become very popular among astrophysicists as a powerful and reliable code to simulate stellar evolution. Analyzing the output data thoroughly may, however, present some challenges and be rather time-consuming. Here we describe MESAFace, a graphical and dynamical interface which provides an intuitive, efficient and quick way to analyze the MESA output. Catalogue identifier: AEOQ_v1_0 Program summary URL:http://cpc.cs.qub.ac.uk/summaries/AEOQ_v1_0.html Program obtainable from: CPC Program Library, Queen’s University, Belfast, N. Ireland Licensing provisions: Standard CPC licence, http://cpc.cs.qub.ac.uk/licence/licence.html No. of lines in distributed program, including test data, etc.: 19165 No. of bytes in distributed program, including test data, etc.: 6300592 Distribution format: tar.gz Programming language: Mathematica. Computer: Any computer capable of running Mathematica. Operating system: Any capable of running Mathematica. Tested on Linux, Mac, Windows XP, Windows 7. RAM: Recommended 2 Gigabytes or more. Supplementary material: Additional test data files are available. Classification: 1.7, 14. Nature of problem: Find a way to quickly and thoroughly analyze the output of a MESA run, including all the profiles, and have an efficient method to produce graphical representations of the data. Solution method: We created two scripts (to be run consecutively). The first one downloads all the data from a MESA run and organizes the profiles in order of age. All the files are saved as tables or arrays of tables which can then be accessed very quickly by Mathematica. The second script uses the Manipulate function to create a graphical interface which allows the user to choose what to plot from a set of menus and buttons. The information shown is updated in real time. The user can access very quickly all the data from the run under examination and visualize it with plots and tables. Unusual features: Moving the

  8. Mesa de luz : colagem-composição

    OpenAIRE

    Guimarães, Marta Mencarini

    2011-01-01

    A presente dissertação trata de uma pesquisa de caráter teórico/prático e se deu a partir da realização do projeto artístico do Grupo Mesa de Luz, formado pelos artistas plásticos Hieronimus do Vale, Tomás Seferin e Marta Mencarini. A pesquisa partiu de uma descrição dos processos de construção do trabalho realizado pelo grupo com o objetivo de realizar uma análise das relações criativas, técnicas, operacionais, performáticas e audiovisuais resultantes do mesmo. Para tanto, tratamos: dos conc...

  9. Towards for Analyzing Alternatives of Interaction Design Based on Verbal Decision Analysis of User Experience

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marília Soares Mendes

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available In domains (as digital TV, smart home, and tangible interfaces that represent a new paradigm of interactivity, the decision of the most appropriate interaction design solution is a challenge. HCI researchers have promoted in their works the validation of design alternative solutions with users before producing the final solution. User experience with technology is a subject that has also gained ground in these works in order to analyze the appropriate solution(s. Following this concept, a study was accomplished under the objective of finding a better interaction solution for an application of mobile TV. Three executable applications of mobile TV prototypes were built. A Verbal Decision Analysis model was applied on the investigations for the favorite characteristics in each prototype based on the user’s experience and their intentions of use. This model led a performance of a qualitative analysis which objectified the design of a new prototype.

  10. Extended warranties, maintenance service and lease contracts modeling and analysis for decision-making

    CERN Document Server

    Murthy, D N Prabhakar

    2014-01-01

    Serving to unify the existing literature on extended warranties, maintenance service contracts and lease contracts, this book also presents a unique perspective on the topic focussed on cost analysis and decision-making from the perspectives of the parties involved. Using a game theoretic approach together with mathematical modelling, results are presented in an integrated manner with key topics that require further research highlighted in order to serve as a starting point for researchers (engineers and statisticians) who are interested in doing further work in these areas. Designed to assist practitioners (managers, engineers, applied statisticians) who are involved with extended warranties, maintenance service contracts and lease contracts, the book provides them with the models and techniques needed for proper cost analysis and effective decision-making. The book is also suitable for use as a reference text in industrial engineering, applied statistics, operations research and management.

  11. A life cycle analysis approach to D and D decision-making

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yuracko, K.L.; Gresalfi, M. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States); Yerace, P. [Dept. of Energy, Fernald, OH (United States). Fernald Environmental Management; Flora, J. [West Valley Demonstration Project, NY (United States); Krstich, M.; Gerrick, D. [Environmental Management Solutions, Mason, OH (United States)

    1998-05-01

    This paper describes a life cycle analysis (LCA) approach that makes decontamination and decommissioning (D and D) of US Department of Energy facilities more efficient and more responsive to the concerns of the society. With the considerable complexity of D and D projects and their attendant environmental and health consequences, projects can no longer be designed based on engineering and economic criteria alone. Using the LCA D and D approach, the evaluation of material disposition alternatives explicitly includes environmental impacts, health and safety impacts, socioeconomic impacts, and stakeholder attitudes -- in addition to engineering and economic criteria. Multi-attribute decision analysis is used to take into consideration the uncertainties and value judgments that are an important part of all material disposition decisions. Use of the LCA D and D approach should lead to more appropriate selections of material disposition pathways and a decision-making process that is both understandable and defensible. The methodology and procedures of the LCA D and D approach are outlined and illustrated by an application of the approach at the Department of Energy`s West Valley Demonstration Project. Specifically, LCA was used to aid decisions on disposition of soil and concrete from the Tank Pad D and D Project. A decision tree and the Pollution Prevention/Waste Minimization Users Guide for Environmental Restoration Projects were used to identify possible alternatives for disposition of the soil and concrete. Eight alternatives encompassing source reduction, segregation, treatment, and disposal were defined for disposition of the soil; two alternatives were identified for disposition of the concrete. Preliminary results suggest that segregation and treatment are advantageous in the disposition of both the soil and the concrete. This and other recent applications illustrate the strength and ease of application of the LCA D and D approach.

  12. Availability, Sustainability, and Suitability of Ground Water, Rogers Mesa, Delta County, Colorado - Types of Analyses and Data for Use in Subdivision Water-Supply Reports

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watts, Kenneth R.

    2008-01-01

    The population of Delta County, Colorado, like that in much of the Western United States, is forecast to increase substantially in the next few decades. A substantial portion of the increased population likely will reside in rural subdivisions and use residential wells for domestic water supplies. In Colorado, a subdivision developer is required to submit a water-supply plan through the county for approval by the Colorado Division of Water Resources. If the water supply is to be provided by wells, the water-supply plan must include a water-supply report. The water-supply report demonstrates the availability, sustainability, and suitability of the water supply for the proposed subdivision. During 2006, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with Delta County, Colorado, began a study to develop criteria that the Delta County Land Use Department can use to evaluate water-supply reports for proposed subdivisions. A table was prepared that lists the types of analyses and data that may be needed in a water-supply report for a water-supply plan that proposes the use of ground water. A preliminary analysis of the availability, sustainability, and suitability of the ground-water resources of Rogers Mesa, Delta County, Colorado, was prepared for a hypothetical subdivision to demonstrate hydrologic analyses and data that may be needed for water-supply reports for proposed subdivisions. Rogers Mesa is a 12-square-mile upland mesa located along the north side of the North Fork Gunnison River about 15 miles east of Delta, Colorado. The principal land use on Rogers Mesa is irrigated agriculture, with about 5,651 acres of irrigated cropland, grass pasture, and orchards. The principal source of irrigation water is surface water diverted from the North Fork Gunnison River and Leroux Creek. The estimated area of platted subdivisions on or partially on Rogers Mesa in 2007 was about 4,792 acres of which about 2,756 acres was irrigated land in 2000. The principal aquifer on Rogers

  13. INEEL Subsurface Disposal Area CERCLA-based Decision Analysis for Technology Screening and Remedial Alternative Evaluation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Parnell, G. S.; Kloeber, Jr. J.; Westphal, D; Fung, V.; Richardson, John Grant

    2000-03-01

    A CERCLA-based decision analysis methodology for alternative evaluation and technology screening has been developed for application at the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory WAG 7 OU13/14 Subsurface Disposal Area (SDA). Quantitative value functions derived from CERCLA balancing criteria in cooperation with State and Federal regulators are presented. A weighted criteria hierarchy is also summarized that relates individual value function numerical values to an overall score for a specific technology alternative.

  14. Plastic Surgeon Expertise in Predicting Breast Reconstruction Outcomes for Patient Decision Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Clement S. Sun, MS

    2013-11-01

    Conclusions: The use of individual plastic surgeon–elicited probability information is not encouraged unless the individual’s prediction skill has been evaluated. In the absence of this information, a group consensus on the probability of outcomes is preferred. Without a large evidence base for calculating probabilities, estimates assessed from a group of plastic surgeons may be acceptable for purposes of breast reconstruction decision analysis.

  15. Systems Analysis – a new paradigm and decision support tools for the water framework directive

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Bruen

    2008-05-01

    Full Text Available In the early days of Systems Analysis the focus was on providing tools for optimisation, modelling and simulation for use by experts. Now there is a recognition of the need to develop and disseminate tools to assist in making decisions, negotiating compromises and communicating preferences that can easily be used by stakeholders without the need for specialist training. The Water Framework Directive (WFD requires public participation and thus provides a strong incentive for progress in this direction. This paper places the new paradigm in the context of the classical one and discusses some of the new approaches which can be used in the implementation of the WFD. These include multi-criteria decision support methods suitable for environmental problems, adaptive management, cognitive mapping, social learning and cooperative design and group decision-making. Concordance methods (such as ELECTRE and the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP are identified as multi-criteria methods that can be readily integrated into Decision Support Systems (DSS that deal with complex environmental issues with very many criteria, some of which are qualitative. The expanding use of the new paradigm provides an opportunity to observe and learn from the interaction of stakeholders with the new technology and to assess its effectiveness.

  16. Celebrity Health Announcements and Online Health Information Seeking: An Analysis of Angelina Jolie's Preventative Health Decision.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dean, Marleah

    2016-01-01

    On May 14, 2013, Angelina Jolie disclosed she carries BRCA1, which means she has an 87% risk of developing breast cancer during her lifetime. Jolie decided to undergo a preventative bilateral mastectomy (PBM), reducing her risk to 5%. The purpose of this study was to analyze the type of information individuals are exposed to when using the Internet to search health information regarding Jolie's decision. Qualitative content analysis revealed four main themes--information about genetics, information about a PBM, information about health care, and information about Jolie's gender identity. Broadly, the identified websites mention Jolie's high risk for developing cancer due to the genetic mutation BRCA1, describe a PBM occasionally noting reasons why she had this surgery and providing alternatives to the surgery, discuss issues related to health care services, costs, and insurances about Jolie's health decision, and portray Jolie as a sexual icon, a partner to Brad Pitt, a mother of six children, and an inspirational humanitarian. The websites also depict Jolie's health decision in positive, negative, and/or both ways. Discussion centers on how this actress' health decision impacts the public.

  17. Multi-criteria decision analysis for waste management in Saharawi refugee camps.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garfì, M; Tondelli, S; Bonoli, A

    2009-10-01

    The aim of this paper is to compare different waste management solutions in Saharawi refugee camps (Algeria) and to test the feasibility of a decision-making method developed to be applied in particular conditions in which environmental and social aspects must be considered. It is based on multi criteria analysis, and in particular on the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), a mathematical technique for multi-criteria decision making (Saaty, T.L., 1980. The Analytic Hierarchy Process. McGraw-Hill, New York, USA; Saaty, T.L., 1990. How to Make a Decision: The Analytic Hierarchy Process. European Journal of Operational Research; Saaty, T.L., 1994. Decision Making for Leaders: The Analytic Hierarchy Process in a Complex World. RWS Publications, Pittsburgh, PA), and on participatory approach, focusing on local community's concerns. The research compares four different waste collection and management alternatives: waste collection by using three tipper trucks, disposal and burning in an open area; waste collection by using seven dumpers and disposal in a landfill; waste collection by using seven dumpers and three tipper trucks and disposal in a landfill; waste collection by using three tipper trucks and disposal in a landfill. The results show that the second and the third solutions provide better scenarios for waste management. Furthermore, the discussion of the results points out the multidisciplinarity of the approach, and the equilibrium between social, environmental and technical impacts. This is a very important aspect in a humanitarian and environmental project, confirming the appropriateness of the chosen method.

  18. Finding the Most Preferred Decision-Making Unit in Data Envelopment Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shirin Mohammadi

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Data envelopment analysis (DEA evaluates the efficiency of the transformation of a decision-making unit’s (DMU’s inputs into its outputs. Finding the benchmarks of a DMU is one of the important purposes of DEA. The benchmarks of a DMU in DEA are obtained by solving some linear programming models. Currently, the obtained benchmarks are just found by using the information of the data of inputs and outputs without considering the decision-maker’s preferences. If the preferences of the decision-maker are available, it is very important to obtain the most preferred DMU as a benchmark of the under-assessment DMU. In this regard, we present an algorithm to find the most preferred DMU based on the utility function of decision-maker’s preferences by exploring some properties on that. The proposed method is constructed based on the projection of the gradient of the utility function on the production possibility set’s frontier.

  19. Shared Decision-Making Models Acknowledging an Interprofessional Approach: A Theory Analysis to Inform Nursing Practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewis, Krystina B; Stacey, Dawn; Squires, Janet E; Carroll, Sandra

    2016-01-01

    Patient engagement in collaboration with health professionals is essential to deliver quality health care. A shared decision-making (SDM) approach requires that patients are involved in decisions regarding their health. SDM is expanding from the patient-physician dyad to incorporate an interprofessional perspective. Conceptual models can be used to better understand theoretical underpinnings for application in clinical practice. The aim of this article was to conduct a theory analysis of conceptual models using an interprofessional approach to SDM and discuss each model's relevance to nursing practice. Walker and Avant's theory analysis approach was used. Three conceptual models were eligible. For all models, the decision-making process was considered iterative. The development process was described for 1 model. All models were logical, parsimonious, and generalizable. One was supported by empirical testing. No model described how partnerships are enacted to achieve interprofessional SDM. Also, there was limited articulation as to how nurses' roles and contributions differ from other team members. This theory analysis highlights the need for a model that explains how partnerships among interprofessional team members are enacted to better understand the operationalization of interprofessional SDM. Implications for nursing practice at all system levels are offered and supported by the 3 models.

  20. Scenario and multiple criteria decision analysis for energy and environmental security of military and industrial installations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karvetski, Christopher W; Lambert, James H; Linkov, Igor

    2011-04-01

    Military and industrial facilities need secure and reliable power generation. Grid outages can result in cascading infrastructure failures as well as security breaches and should be avoided. Adding redundancy and increasing reliability can require additional environmental, financial, logistical, and other considerations and resources. Uncertain scenarios consisting of emergent environmental conditions, regulatory changes, growth of regional energy demands, and other concerns result in further complications. Decisions on selecting energy alternatives are made on an ad hoc basis. The present work integrates scenario analysis and multiple criteria decision analysis (MCDA) to identify combinations of impactful emergent conditions and to perform a preliminary benefits analysis of energy and environmental security investments for industrial and military installations. Application of a traditional MCDA approach would require significant stakeholder elicitations under multiple uncertain scenarios. The approach proposed in this study develops and iteratively adjusts a scoring function for investment alternatives to find the scenarios with the most significant impacts on installation security. A robust prioritization of investment alternatives can be achieved by integrating stakeholder preferences and focusing modeling and decision-analytical tools on a few key emergent conditions and scenarios. The approach is described and demonstrated for a campus of several dozen interconnected industrial buildings within a major installation.

  1. AN ANALYSIS ON THE DECISION MODEL OF SMART PLUS INSURANCE PRODUCT PURCHASE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fitry Primadona

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The purposes of this study were 1 to analyze the decision model of Smart Plus insurance product purchase and 2 to determine the criteria, sub-criteria, and alternative priorities in Smart Plus purchase decision model. The methods utilized in the study included a survey and interview (in-depth interview by using an AHP analysis (Analytical Hierarchy Process and processing software of "Expert Choice". The result of the first analysis indicated the four marketing mixes that had been performed (Price, Product, Process, and Place; while the second one showed that the purchase of Smart Plus product is based on the factors with the level of interest as follow: benefit (36.3%, premium (35.7%, membership process (14.6%, and provider (13.4%. The result of the second analysis revealed the important sub-criteria including premium offer, additional benefits, membership card, and temporary certificate from the medical specialist.Keywords: AHP, life insurance, marketing mix, purchase decision

  2. Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis for Health Care Decision Making--Emerging Good Practices: Report 2 of the ISPOR MCDA Emerging Good Practices Task Force.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marsh, Kevin; IJzerman, Maarten; Thokala, Praveen; Baltussen, Rob; Boysen, Meindert; Kaló, Zoltán; Lönngren, Thomas; Mussen, Filip; Peacock, Stuart; Watkins, John; Devlin, Nancy

    2016-01-01

    Health care decisions are complex and involve confronting trade-offs between multiple, often conflicting objectives. Using structured, explicit approaches to decisions involving multiple criteria can improve the quality of decision making. A set of techniques, known under the collective heading, multiple criteria decision analysis (MCDA), are useful for this purpose. In 2014, ISPOR established an Emerging Good Practices Task Force. The task force's first report defined MCDA, provided examples of its use in health care, described the key steps, and provided an overview of the principal methods of MCDA. This second task force report provides emerging good-practice guidance on the implementation of MCDA to support health care decisions. The report includes: a checklist to support the design, implementation and review of an MCDA; guidance to support the implementation of the checklist; the order in which the steps should be implemented; illustrates how to incorporate budget constraints into an MCDA; provides an overview of the skills and resources, including available software, required to implement MCDA; and future research directions.

  3. Field Plot Points for Mesa Verde National Park Vegetation Mapping Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Park Service, Department of the Interior — The Mesa Verde National Park Classification Releve Location zip shapefile (meveplot.zip) was developed as a Geographic Information Systems (GIS) product to represent...

  4. True Color Orthorectified Photomosaic for Mesa Verde National Park Vegetation Mapping Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Park Service, Department of the Interior — As part of a 2006-2007 U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) - National Park Service (NPS) Vegetation Mapping Program to create a digital database of vegetation for Mesa...

  5. Stormwater Pollution Prevention Plan TA-60 Roads and Grounds Facility and Associated Sigma Mesa Staging Area

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sandoval, Leonard Frank [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2017-02-01

    This Stormwater Pollution Prevention Plan (SWPPP) is applicable to operations at the Technical Area -60 (TA-60) Roads and Grounds Facility and Associated Sigma Mesa Staging Area off Eniwetok Drive, in Los Alamos County, New Mexico.

  6. Managing potential health risks from electric powerlines: a decision analysis caught in controversy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    von Winterfeldt, Detlof; Eppel, Thomas; Adams, John; Neutra, Raymond; DelPizzo, Vincent

    2004-12-01

    Over the past 20 years, several epidemiological studies have found an association between exposure to electromagnetic fields (EMFs) and health effects, including childhood leukemia and adult brain cancer. However, experts strongly disagree about whether this association is causal and, if so, how strong it is. In this article, we examine several alternatives to reduce EMFs from sources of the California power grid, including undergrounding distribution and transmission lines and reconfiguring or rephasing lines. The alternatives were evaluated in terms of the potential health risk reduction, cost, impacts on service reliability, property values, and many other consequences. Because of the uncertainty about an EMF-health link, the main effort was to determine the sensitivity of the decisions to the probability and seriousness of an EMF hazard. User-friendly computer models were developed to allow stakeholders to change the model assumptions and parameters to analyze the impacts of their own assumptions and estimates on the decision. The analysis clearly demonstrated that only four of the many concerns raised by the stakeholders could make a difference in the decision: health risks, costs, service reliability, and property values. Whether undergrounding, moderate alternatives for EMF reduction, or no change was the best decision depended on a few key factors, including the probability that EMF exposure is a hazard, the severity of this hazard, how the EMF reduction measures are financed, and the impacts on property values. While the analysis did not resolve the EMF issues, it showed that even in the most controversial settings, a little analysis goes a long way to clarifying the issues and to focus the debate.

  7. The Underground Test Area Project of the Nevada Test Site: Building Confidence in Groundwater Flow and Transport Models at Pahute Mesa Through Focused Characterization Studies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pawloski, G A; Wurtz, J; Drellack, S L

    2009-12-29

    Pahute Mesa at the Nevada Test Site contains about 8.0E+07 curies of radioactivity caused by underground nuclear testing. The Underground Test Area Subproject has entered Phase II of data acquisition, analysis, and modeling to determine the risk to receptors from radioactivity in the groundwater, establish a groundwater monitoring network, and provide regulatory closure. Evaluation of radionuclide contamination at Pahute Mesa is particularly difficult due to the complex stratigraphy and structure caused by multiple calderas in the Southwestern Nevada Volcanic Field and overprinting of Basin and Range faulting. Included in overall Phase II goals is the need to reduce the uncertainty and improve confidence in modeling results. New characterization efforts are underway, and results from the first year of a three-year well drilling plan are presented.

  8. Decision analysis to support development of the Glen Canyon Dam long-term experimental and management plan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Runge, Michael C.; LaGory, Kirk E.; Russell, Kendra; Balsom, Janet R.; Butler, R. Alan; Coggins,, Lewis G.; Grantz, Katrina A.; Hayse, John; Hlohowskyj, Ihor; Korman, Josh; May, James E.; O'Rourke, Daniel J.; Poch, Leslie A.; Prairie, James R.; VanKuiken, Jack C.; Van Lonkhuyzen, Robert A.; Varyu, David R.; Verhaaren, Bruce T.; Veselka, Thomas D.; Williams, Nicholas T.; Wuthrich, Kelsey K.; Yackulic, Charles B.; Billerbeck, Robert P.; Knowles, Glen W.

    2016-01-07

    The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Bureau of Reclamation, National Park Service, and Argonne National Laboratory, completed a decision analysis to use in the evaluation of alternatives in the Environmental Impact Statement concerning the long-term management of water releases from Glen Canyon Dam and associated management activities. Two primary decision analysis methods, multicriteria decision analysis and the expected value of information, were used to evaluate the alternative strategies against the resource goals and to evaluate the influence of uncertainty.

  9. Selecting essential information for biosurveillance--a multi-criteria decision analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicholas Generous

    Full Text Available The National Strategy for Biosurveillance defines biosurveillance as "the process of gathering, integrating, interpreting, and communicating essential information related to all-hazards threats or disease activity affecting human, animal, or plant health to achieve early detection and warning, contribute to overall situational awareness of the health aspects of an incident, and to enable better decision-making at all levels." However, the strategy does not specify how "essential information" is to be identified and integrated into the current biosurveillance enterprise, or what the metrics qualify information as being "essential". The question of data stream identification and selection requires a structured methodology that can systematically evaluate the tradeoffs between the many criteria that need to be taken in account. Multi-Attribute Utility Theory, a type of multi-criteria decision analysis, can provide a well-defined, structured approach that can offer solutions to this problem. While the use of Multi-Attribute Utility Theoryas a practical method to apply formal scientific decision theoretical approaches to complex, multi-criteria problems has been demonstrated in a variety of fields, this method has never been applied to decision support in biosurveillance.We have developed a formalized decision support analytic framework that can facilitate identification of "essential information" for use in biosurveillance systems or processes and we offer this framework to the global BSV community as a tool for optimizing the BSV enterprise. To demonstrate utility, we applied the framework to the problem of evaluating data streams for use in an integrated global infectious disease surveillance system.

  10. Selecting essential information for biosurveillance--a multi-criteria decision analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Generous, Nicholas; Margevicius, Kristen J; Taylor-McCabe, Kirsten J; Brown, Mac; Daniel, W Brent; Castro, Lauren; Hengartner, Andrea; Deshpande, Alina

    2014-01-01

    The National Strategy for Biosurveillance defines biosurveillance as "the process of gathering, integrating, interpreting, and communicating essential information related to all-hazards threats or disease activity affecting human, animal, or plant health to achieve early detection and warning, contribute to overall situational awareness of the health aspects of an incident, and to enable better decision-making at all levels." However, the strategy does not specify how "essential information" is to be identified and integrated into the current biosurveillance enterprise, or what the metrics qualify information as being "essential". The question of data stream identification and selection requires a structured methodology that can systematically evaluate the tradeoffs between the many criteria that need to be taken in account. Multi-Attribute Utility Theory, a type of multi-criteria decision analysis, can provide a well-defined, structured approach that can offer solutions to this problem. While the use of Multi-Attribute Utility Theoryas a practical method to apply formal scientific decision theoretical approaches to complex, multi-criteria problems has been demonstrated in a variety of fields, this method has never been applied to decision support in biosurveillance.We have developed a formalized decision support analytic framework that can facilitate identification of "essential information" for use in biosurveillance systems or processes and we offer this framework to the global BSV community as a tool for optimizing the BSV enterprise. To demonstrate utility, we applied the framework to the problem of evaluating data streams for use in an integrated global infectious disease surveillance system.

  11. Information Presentation in Decision and Risk Analysis: Answered, Partly Answered, and Unanswered Questions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keller, L Robin; Wang, Yitong

    2016-09-21

    For the last 30 years, researchers in risk analysis, decision analysis, and economics have consistently proven that decisionmakers employ different processes for evaluating and combining anticipated and actual losses, gains, delays, and surprises. Although rational models generally prescribe a consistent response, people's heuristic processes will sometimes lead them to be inconsistent in the way they respond to information presented in theoretically equivalent ways. We point out several promising future research directions by listing and detailing a series of answered, partly answered, and unanswered questions.

  12. Improvement and analysis of ID3 algorithm in decision-making tree

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Xiao-Lan; Long, Zhen; Liao, Wen-Qi

    2015-12-01

    For the cooperative system under development, it needs to use the spatial analysis and relative technology concerning data mining in order to carry out the detection of the subject conflict and redundancy, while the ID3 algorithm is an important data mining. Due to the traditional ID3 algorithm in the decision-making tree towards the log part is rather complicated, this paper obtained a new computational formula of information gain through the optimization of algorithm of the log part. During the experiment contrast and theoretical analysis, it is found that IID3 (Improved ID3 Algorithm) algorithm owns higher calculation efficiency and accuracy and thus worth popularizing.

  13. Multi-criteria decision analysis for assessment and appraisal of orphan drugs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Georgi Iskrov

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Background: Limited resources and expanding expectations push all countries and types of health systems to adopt new approaches in priority setting and resources allocation. Despite best efforts, it is difficult to reconcile all competing interests and trade-offs are inevitable. This is why multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA has played a major role in recent uptake of value-based reimbursement. MCDA framework enables exploration of stakeholders’ preferences, as well as explicit organization of broad range of criteria on which real-world decisions are made.Assessment and appraisal of orphan drugs tend to be one of the most complicated health technology assessment (HTA tasks. Access to market approved orphan therapies remains an issue. Early constructive dialogue among rare disease stakeholders and elaboration of orphan drug-tailored decision support tools could set the scene for ongoing accumulation of evidence, as well as for proper reimbursement decision-making.Objective: The objective of this study was to create a MCDA value measurement model to assess and appraise orphan drugs. This was achieved by exploring the preferences on decision criteria’s weights and performance scores through a stakeholder-representative survey and a focus group discussion that were both organized in Bulgaria.Results/Conclusions: Decision criteria that describe the health technology’s characteristics were unanimously agreed as the most important group of reimbursement considerations. This outcome, combined with the high individual weight of disease severity and disease burden criteria underlined some of the fundamental principles of healthcare – equity and fairness. Our study proved that strength of evidence may be a key criterion in orphan drug assessment and appraisal. Evidence is not only used to shape reimbursement decision-making, but also to lend legitimacy to policies pursued. The need for real-world data on orphan drugs was largely stressed

  14. Innovation and decision-making process in reverse logistics: a bibliometric analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fernando Antonio Guimarães Tenório

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available This work aimed to make a bibliometric analysis on empirical studies that focus on the reverse logistics process. Papers published in two major events of management and a production engineering were collected during the years 2007-2012. To perform the analysis assumptions were adopted as the concepts of innovation and decision-making. 43 articles were analyzed and it was found that, in most cases, organizations choose to deploy reverse logistics as a means to solving problems related to environmental laws and regulations and after its implementation, the decision-making process related to the network of companies that perform reverse logistics remains restricted to the adopter company, thus becoming a centralized decision-making process. It was also found that reverse logistics is, in most cases, an innovation in the supply chain, it provides a new way to manage and operate the return and recycling of waste products and generating competitive advantages in the form of increased net income and better picture of the organization to its partners and customers.

  15. Path Analysis Examining Self-Efficacy and Decision-Making Performance on a Simulated Baseball Task

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hepler, Teri J.; Feltz, Deborah L.

    2012-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to examine the relationship between decision-making self-efficacy and decision-making performance in sport. Undergraduate students (N = 78) performed 10 trials of a decision-making task in baseball. Self-efficacy was measured before performing each trial. Decision-making performance was assessed by decision speed and…

  16. Predicting electricity energy consumption: A comparison of regression analysis, decision tree and neural networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tso, Geoffrey K.F.; Yau, Kelvin K.W. [City University of Hong Kong, Kowloon, Hong Kong (China). Department of Management Sciences

    2007-09-15

    This study presents three modeling techniques for the prediction of electricity energy consumption. In addition to the traditional regression analysis, decision tree and neural networks are considered. Model selection is based on the square root of average squared error. In an empirical application to an electricity energy consumption study, the decision tree and neural network models appear to be viable alternatives to the stepwise regression model in understanding energy consumption patterns and predicting energy consumption levels. With the emergence of the data mining approach for predictive modeling, different types of models can be built in a unified platform: to implement various modeling techniques, assess the performance of different models and select the most appropriate model for future prediction. (author)

  17. A multi-criteria decision analysis assessment of waste paper management options.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanan, Deirdre; Burnley, Stephen; Cooke, David

    2013-03-01

    The use of Multi-criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) was investigated in an exercise using a panel of local residents and stakeholders to assess the options for managing waste paper on the Isle of Wight. Seven recycling, recovery and disposal options were considered by the panel who evaluated each option against seven environmental, financial and social criteria. The panel preferred options where the waste was managed on the island with gasification and recycling achieving the highest scores. Exporting the waste to the English mainland for incineration or landfill proved to be the least preferred options. This research has demonstrated that MCDA is an effective way of involving community groups in waste management decision making.

  18. Integrating clinicians, knowledge and data: expert-based cooperative analysis in healthcare decision support

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    García-Alonso Carlos

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Decision support in health systems is a highly difficult task, due to the inherent complexity of the process and structures involved. Method This paper introduces a new hybrid methodology Expert-based Cooperative Analysis (EbCA, which incorporates explicit prior expert knowledge in data analysis methods, and elicits implicit or tacit expert knowledge (IK to improve decision support in healthcare systems. EbCA has been applied to two different case studies, showing its usability and versatility: 1 Bench-marking of small mental health areas based on technical efficiency estimated by EbCA-Data Envelopment Analysis (EbCA-DEA, and 2 Case-mix of schizophrenia based on functional dependency using Clustering Based on Rules (ClBR. In both cases comparisons towards classical procedures using qualitative explicit prior knowledge were made. Bayesian predictive validity measures were used for comparison with expert panels results. Overall agreement was tested by Intraclass Correlation Coefficient in case "1" and kappa in both cases. Results EbCA is a new methodology composed by 6 steps:. 1 Data collection and data preparation; 2 acquisition of "Prior Expert Knowledge" (PEK and design of the "Prior Knowledge Base" (PKB; 3 PKB-guided analysis; 4 support-interpretation tools to evaluate results and detect inconsistencies (here Implicit Knowledg -IK- might be elicited; 5 incorporation of elicited IK in PKB and repeat till a satisfactory solution; 6 post-processing results for decision support. EbCA has been useful for incorporating PEK in two different analysis methods (DEA and Clustering, applied respectively to assess technical efficiency of small mental health areas and for case-mix of schizophrenia based on functional dependency. Differences in results obtained with classical approaches were mainly related to the IK which could be elicited by using EbCA and had major implications for the decision making in both cases. Discussion This

  19. Harnessing ecosystem models and multi-criteria decision analysis for the support of forest management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolfslehner, Bernhard; Seidl, Rupert

    2010-12-01

    The decision-making environment in forest management (FM) has changed drastically during the last decades. Forest management planning is facing increasing complexity due to a widening portfolio of forest goods and services, a societal demand for a rational, transparent decision process and rising uncertainties concerning future environmental conditions (e.g., climate change). Methodological responses to these challenges include an intensified use of ecosystem models to provide an enriched, quantitative information base for FM planning. Furthermore, multi-criteria methods are increasingly used to amalgamate information, preferences, expert judgments and value expressions, in support of the participatory and communicative dimensions of modern forestry. Although the potential of combining these two approaches has been demonstrated in a number of studies, methodological aspects in interfacing forest ecosystem models (FEM) and multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) are scarcely addressed explicitly. In this contribution we review the state of the art in FEM and MCDA in the context of FM planning and highlight some of the crucial issues when combining ecosystem and preference modeling. We discuss issues and requirements in selecting approaches suitable for supporting FM planning problems from the growing body of FEM and MCDA concepts. We furthermore identify two major challenges in a harmonized application of FEM-MCDA: (i) the design and implementation of an indicator-based analysis framework capturing ecological and social aspects and their interactions relevant for the decision process, and (ii) holistic information management that supports consistent use of different information sources, provides meta-information as well as information on uncertainties throughout the planning process.

  20. Perspectives Gained in an Evaluation of Uncertainty, Sensitivity, and Decision Analysis Software

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Davis, F.J.; Helton, J.C.

    1999-02-24

    The following software packages for uncertainty, sensitivity, and decision analysis were reviewed and also tested with several simple analysis problems: Crystal Ball, RiskQ, SUSA-PC, Analytica, PRISM, Ithink, Stella, LHS, STEPWISE, and JMP. Results from the review and test problems are presented. The study resulted in the recognition of the importance of four considerations in the selection of a software package: (1) the availability of an appropriate selection of distributions, (2) the ease with which data flows through the input sampling, model evaluation, and output analysis process, (3) the type of models that can be incorporated into the analysis process, and (4) the level of confidence in the software modeling and results.

  1. Performance Evaluation of Discriminant Analysis and Decision Tree, for Weed Classification of Potato Fields

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Farshad Vesali

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available In present study we tried to recognizing weeds in potato fields to effective use from herbicides. As we know potato is one of the crops which is cultivated vastly all over the world and it is a major world food crop that is consumed by over one billion people world over, but it is threated by weed invade, because of row cropping system applied in potato tillage. Machine vision is used in this research for effective application of herbicides in field. About 300 color images from 3 potato farms of Qorveh city and 2 farms of Urmia University-Iran, was acquired. Images were acquired in different illumination condition from morning to evening in sunny and cloudy days. Because of overlap and shading of plants in farm condition it is hard to use morphologic parameters. In method used for classifying weeds and potato plants, primary color components of each plant were extracted and the relation between them was estimated for determining discriminant function and classifying plants using discrimination analysis. In addition the decision tree method was used to compare results with discriminant analysis. Three different classifications were applied: first, Classification was applied to discriminate potato plant from all other weeds (two groups, the rate of correct classification was 76.67% for discriminant analysis and 83.82% for decision tree; second classification was applied to discriminate potato plant from separate groups of each weed (6 groups, the rate of correct classification was 87%. And the third, Classification of potato plant versus weed species one by one. As the weeds were different, the results of classification were different in this composition. The decision tree in all conditions showed the better result than discriminant analysis.

  2. A Benefit-Risk Analysis Approach to Capture Regulatory Decision-Making: Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raju, G K; Gurumurthi, K; Domike, R; Kazandjian, D; Blumenthal, G; Pazdur, R; Woodcock, J

    2016-12-01

    Drug regulators around the world make decisions about drug approvability based on qualitative benefit-risk analyses. There is much interest in quantifying regulatory approaches to benefit and risk. In this work the use of a quantitative benefit-risk analysis was applied to regulatory decision-making about new drugs to treat advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). Benefits and risks associated with 20 US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) decisions associated with a set of candidate treatments submitted between 2003 and 2015 were analyzed. For benefit analysis, the median overall survival (OS) was used where available. When not available, OS was estimated based on overall response rate (ORR) or progression-free survival (PFS). Risks were analyzed based on magnitude (or severity) of harm and likelihood of occurrence. Additionally, a sensitivity analysis was explored to demonstrate analysis of systematic uncertainty. FDA approval decision outcomes considered were found to be consistent with the benefit-risk logic.

  3. Risk Analysis and Decision-Making Software Package (1997 Version) User Manual

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chung, F.T.H.

    1999-02-11

    This manual provides instructions for using the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) risk analysis and decision making software (1997 version) developed at BDM Petroleum Technologies by BDM-Oklahoma, Inc. for DOE, under contract No. DE-AC22-94PC91OO8. This software provides petroleum producers with a simple, handy tool for exploration and production risk analysis and decision-making. It collects useful risk analysis tools in one package so that users do not have to use several programs separately. The software is simple to use, but still provides many functions. The 1997 version of the software package includes the following tools: (1) Investment risk (Gambler's ruin) analysis; (2) Monte Carlo simulation; (3) Best fit for distribution functions; (4) Sample and rank correlation; (5) Enhanced oil recovery method screening; and (6) artificial neural network. This software package is subject to change. Suggestions and comments from users are welcome and will be considered for future modifications and enhancements of the software. Please check the opening screen of the software for the current contact information. In the future, more tools will be added to this software package. This manual includes instructions on how to use the software but does not attempt to fully explain the theory and algorithms used to create it.

  4. Integrated model of the shallow and deep hydrothermal systems in the East Mesa area, Imperial Valley, California

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Riney, T.D.; Pritchett, J.W.; Rice, L.F.

    1982-01-01

    Geological, geophysical, thermal, petrophysical and hydrological data available for the East Mesa hydrothermal system that are pertinent to the construction of a computer model of the natural flow of heat and fluid mass within the system are assembled and correlated. A conceptual model of the full system is developed and a subregion selected for quantitative modeling. By invoking the Boussinesq approximation, valid for describing the natural flow of heat and mass in a liquid hydrothermal system, it is found practical to carry computer simulations far enough in time to ensure that steady-state conditions are obtained. Initial calculations for an axisymmetric model approximating the system demonstrate that the vertical formation permeability of the deep East Mesa system must be very low (k/sub v/ approx. 0.25 to 0.5 md). Since subsurface temperature and surface heat flow data exhibit major deviations from the axisymmetric approximation, exploratory three-dimensional calculations are performed to assess the effects of various mechanisms which might operate to produce such observed asymmetries. A three-dimensional model evolves from this iterative data synthesis and computer analysis which includes a hot fluid convective source distributed along a leaky fault radiating northward from the center of the hot spot and realistic variations in the reservoir formation properties.

  5. A multi-criteria decision analysis assessment of waste paper management options

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hanan, Deirdre [Department of Design, Development, Environment and Materials, The Open University, Walton Hall, Milton Keynes, MK7 6AA (United Kingdom); Burnley, Stephen, E-mail: s.j.burnley@open.ac.uk [Department of Design, Development, Environment and Materials, The Open University, Walton Hall, Milton Keynes, MK7 6AA (United Kingdom); Cooke, David [Department of Design, Development, Environment and Materials, The Open University, Walton Hall, Milton Keynes, MK7 6AA (United Kingdom)

    2013-03-15

    Highlights: ► Isolated communities have particular problems in terms of waste management. ► An MCDA tool allowed a group of non-experts to evaluate waste management options. ► The group preferred local waste management solutions to export to the mainland. ► Gasification of paper was the preferred option followed by recycling. ► The group concluded that they could be involved in the decision making process. - Abstract: The use of Multi-criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) was investigated in an exercise using a panel of local residents and stakeholders to assess the options for managing waste paper on the Isle of Wight. Seven recycling, recovery and disposal options were considered by the panel who evaluated each option against seven environmental, financial and social criteria. The panel preferred options where the waste was managed on the island with gasification and recycling achieving the highest scores. Exporting the waste to the English mainland for incineration or landfill proved to be the least preferred options. This research has demonstrated that MCDA is an effective way of involving community groups in waste management decision making.

  6. Transdisciplinary Evaluation of Energy Scenarios for a German Village Using Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter Schmuck

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA can assist local decision processes towards selecting renewable energy systems as it is able to manage qualitative data and offers opportunities to integrate knowledge from local stakeholders. However, little experience is available regarding practical applications of MCDA in real decision processes in communities on their path towards a renewable energy supply. Within the “Bioenergy-Region Ludwigsfelde” project, an MCDA evaluation has been applied to a small village on its way to becoming a “bioenergy village”. Here, MCDA has been combined with already established tools accompanying the process to becoming a “bioenergy village”, such as planning workshops, citizens’ meetings and best-practice trips. A comprehensive set of sustainability criteria was applied aimed at addressing the questions of local actors. An emphasis was placed on social criteria that comprise the perceived values of local impacts. In general, it was observed that MCDA provides many benefits for this application context. In particular, the group weighting using the SIMOS method demonstrated good results in the process. However, for real-world applications of MCDA, the challenge of data compilation in particular must be addressed.

  7. A Descriptive Analysis of Decision Support Systems Research Between 1990 and 2003

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Arnott

    2005-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper is the first major report of a project that is investigating the theoretic foundations of decision support systems (DSS. The project was principally motivated by a concern for the direction and relevance of DSS research. The main areas of research focus are the decision and judgement theoretic base of the discipline, the research strategies used in published articles, and the professional relevance of DSS research. The project has analysed 926 DSS articles published in 14 major journals from 1990 to 2003. The findings indicate that DSS research is more dominated by positivist research than general information systems (in particular experiments, surveys, and descriptions of specific applications and systems, is heavily influenced by the work of Herbert Simon, is poorly grounded in contemporary judgement and decision-making research, and falls down in the identification of the nature of clients and users. Of great concern is the finding that DSS research has relatively low professional relevance. An overview of the direction of further analysis is presented.

  8. Tools of the Future: How Decision Tree Analysis Will Impact Mission Planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Otterstatter, Matthew R.

    2005-01-01

    The universe is infinitely complex; however, the human mind has a finite capacity. The multitude of possible variables, metrics, and procedures in mission planning are far too many to address exhaustively. This is unfortunate because, in general, considering more possibilities leads to more accurate and more powerful results. To compensate, we can get more insightful results by employing our greatest tool, the computer. The power of the computer will be utilized through a technology that considers every possibility, decision tree analysis. Although decision trees have been used in many other fields, this is innovative for space mission planning. Because this is a new strategy, no existing software is able to completely accommodate all of the requirements. This was determined through extensive research and testing of current technologies. It was necessary to create original software, for which a short-term model was finished this summer. The model was built into Microsoft Excel to take advantage of the familiar graphical interface for user input, computation, and viewing output. Macros were written to automate the process of tree construction, optimization, and presentation. The results are useful and promising. If this tool is successfully implemented in mission planning, our reliance on old-fashioned heuristics, an error-prone shortcut for handling complexity, will be reduced. The computer algorithms involved in decision trees will revolutionize mission planning. The planning will be faster and smarter, leading to optimized missions with the potential for more valuable data.

  9. Slower Perception Followed by Faster Lexical Decision in Longer Words: A Diffusion Model Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oganian, Yulia; Froehlich, Eva; Schlickeiser, Ulrike; Hofmann, Markus J; Heekeren, Hauke R; Jacobs, Arthur M

    2015-01-01

    Effects of stimulus length on reaction times (RTs) in the lexical decision task are the topic of extensive research. While slower RTs are consistently found for longer pseudo-words, a finding coined the word length effect (WLE), some studies found no effects for words, and yet others reported faster RTs for longer words. Moreover, the WLE depends on the orthographic transparency of a language, with larger effects in more transparent orthographies. Here we investigate processes underlying the WLE in lexical decision in German-English bilinguals using a diffusion model (DM) analysis, which we compared to a linear regression approach. In the DM analysis, RT-accuracy distributions are characterized using parameters that reflect latent sub-processes, in particular evidence accumulation and decision-independent perceptual encoding, instead of typical parameters such as mean RT and accuracy. The regression approach showed a decrease in RTs with length for pseudo-words, but no length effect for words. However, DM analysis revealed that the null effect for words resulted from opposing effects of length on perceptual encoding and rate of evidence accumulation. Perceptual encoding times increased with length for words and pseudo-words, whereas the rate of evidence accumulation increased with length for real words but decreased for pseudo-words. A comparison between DM parameters in German and English suggested that orthographic transparency affects perceptual encoding, whereas effects of length on evidence accumulation are likely to reflect contextual information and the increase in available perceptual evidence with length. These opposing effects may account for the inconsistent findings on WLEs.

  10. Slower perception followed by faster lexical decision in longer words: a diffusion model analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yulia eOganian

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Effects of stimulus length on reaction times (RTs in the lexical decision task are the topic of extensive research. While slower RTs are consistently found for longer pseudo-words, a finding coined the word length effect (WLE, some studies found no effects for words, and yet others reported faster RTs for longer words. Moreover, the WLE depends on the orthographic transparency of a language, with larger effects in more transparent orthographies. Here we investigate processes underlying the WLE in lexical decision in German-English bilinguals using a diffusion model (DM analysis, which we compared to a linear regression approach. In the DM analysis, RT-accuracy distributions are characterized using parameters that reflect latent sub-processes, in particular evidence accumulation and decision-independent perceptual encoding, instead of typical parameters such as mean RT and accuracy. The regression approach showed a decrease in RTs with length for pseudo-words, but no length effect for words. However, DM analysis revealed that the null effect for words resulted from opposing effects of length on perceptual encoding and rate of evidence accumulation. Perceptual encoding times increased with length for words and pseudo-words, whereas the rate of evidence accumulation increased with length for real words but decreased for pseudo-words. A comparison between DM parameters in German and English suggested that orthographic transparency affects perceptual encoding, whereas effects of length on evidence accumulation are likely to reflect contextual information and the increase in available perceptual evidence with length. These opposing effects may account for the inconsistent findings on word length effects.

  11. Geologic map of the Clifton Quadrangle, Mesa County, Colorado

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carrara, P.E.

    2001-01-01

    1:24,000-scale geologic mapping in the Clifton 7.5' quadrangle, in support of the USGS Colorado River/I-70 Corridor Cooperative Geologic Mapping Project, provides interpretations of the Quaternary stratigraphy and geologic hazards in this area of the Grand Valley. The Clifton 1:24,000 quadrangle is in Mesa County in western Colorado. Because the map area is dominated by various surficial deposits, the map depicts 16 different Quaternary units. Five prominent river terraces are present in the quadrangle containing gravels deposited by the Colorado River. The map area contains a large landslide deposit on the southern slopes of Mount Garfield. The landslide developed in the Mancos Shale and contains large blocks of the overlying Mesaverde Group. In addition, the landslide is a source of debris flows that have closed I-70 in the past. The major bedrock unit in the quadrangle is the Mancos Shale of Upper Cretaceous age. The map is accompanied by text containing unit descriptions, and sections on geologic hazards (including landslides, piping, gullying, expansive soils, and flooding), and economic geology (including sand and gravel). A table indicates what map units are susceptible to a given hazard. Approximately 20 references are cited at the end of the report.

  12. Geology of the Horse Range Mesa quadrangle, Colorado

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cater, Fred W.; Bush, A.L.; Bell, Henry; Withington, C.F.

    1953-01-01

    The Horse Range Mesa quadrangle is one of eighteen 7 1/2-minute quadrangles covering the principal carnotite-producing area of southwestern Colorado. The geology of the quadrangles was mapped by the U.S. Geological Survey for the Atomic Energy Commission as part of a comprehensive study of carnotite deposits. The rocks exposed in the eighteen quadrangles consist of crystalline rocks of pre-Cambrian age and sedimentary rocks that range in age from late Paleozoic to Quaternary. Over much of the area the sedimentary rocks are flat lying, but in places the rocks are disrupted by high-angle faults, and northwest-trending folds. Conspicuous among the folds are large anticlines having cores of intrusive salt and gypsum. Most of the carnotite deposits are confined to the Salt Wash sandstone member of the Jurassic Morrison formation. Within this sandstone, most of the deposits are spottily distributed through an arcuate zone known as the "Uravan Mineral Belt". Individual deposits range in size from irregular masses containing only a few tons of ore to large, tabular masses containing many thousands of tons. The ore consists largely of sandstone selectively impregnated and in part replaced by uranium and vanadium minerals. Most of the deposits appear to be related to certain sedimentary strictures in sandstones of favorable composition.

  13. Head First Data Analysis A learner's guide to big numbers, statistics, and good decisions

    CERN Document Server

    Milton, Michael

    2009-01-01

    Today, interpreting data is a critical decision-making factor for businesses and organizations. If your job requires you to manage and analyze all kinds of data, turn to Head First Data Analysis, where you'll quickly learn how to collect and organize data, sort the distractions from the truth, find meaningful patterns, draw conclusions, predict the future, and present your findings to others. Whether you're a product developer researching the market viability of a new product or service, a marketing manager gauging or predicting the effectiveness of a campaign, a salesperson who needs data t

  14. Transportation Big Data: Unbiased Analysis and Tools to Inform Sustainable Transportation Decisions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2016-06-01

    Today, transportation operation and energy systems data are generated at an unprecedented scale. The U.S. Department of Energy's National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) is the go-to source for expertise in providing data and analysis to inform industry and government transportation decision making. The lab's teams of data experts and engineers are mining and analyzing large sets of complex data -- or 'big data' -- to develop solutions that support the research, development, and deployment of market-ready technologies that reduce fuel consumption and greenhouse gas emissions.

  15. Benefits of Employing a Personal Response System in a Decision Analysis Course

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rachel Or-Bach

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes the employment of a Personal Response System (PRS during a Decision Analysis course for Management Information Systems (MIS students. The description shows how the carefully designed PRS-based questions, the delivery, and the follow-up discussions; provided a context for eliciting and exercising central concepts of the course topics as well as central skills required for MIS majors. A sample of PRS-based questions is presented along with a description for each question of its purpose, the way it was delivered, the response rate, the responses and their frequencies, and the respective in-class discussion. Lessons from these findings are discussed.

  16. A critical meta-analysis of lens model studies in human judgment and decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaufmann, Esther; Reips, Ulf-Dietrich; Wittmann, Werner W

    2013-01-01

    Achieving accurate judgment ('judgmental achievement') is of utmost importance in daily life across multiple domains. The lens model and the lens model equation provide useful frameworks for modeling components of judgmental achievement and for creating tools to help decision makers (e.g., physicians, teachers) reach better judgments (e.g., a correct diagnosis, an accurate estimation of intelligence). Previous meta-analyses of judgment and decision-making studies have attempted to evaluate overall judgmental achievement and have provided the basis for evaluating the success of bootstrapping (i.e., replacing judges by linear models that guide decision making). However, previous meta-analyses have failed to appropriately correct for a number of study design artifacts (e.g., measurement error, dichotomization), which may have potentially biased estimations (e.g., of the variability between studies) and led to erroneous interpretations (e.g., with regards to moderator variables). In the current study we therefore conduct the first psychometric meta-analysis of judgmental achievement studies that corrects for a number of study design artifacts. We identified 31 lens model studies (N = 1,151, k = 49) that met our inclusion criteria. We evaluated overall judgmental achievement as well as whether judgmental achievement depended on decision domain (e.g., medicine, education) and/or the level of expertise (expert vs. novice). We also evaluated whether using corrected estimates affected conclusions with regards to the success of bootstrapping with psychometrically-corrected models. Further, we introduce a new psychometric trim-and-fill method to estimate the effect sizes of potentially missing studies correct psychometric meta-analyses for effects of publication bias. Comparison of the results of the psychometric meta-analysis with the results of a traditional meta-analysis (which only corrected for sampling error) indicated that artifact correction leads to a) an

  17. A Decision Tree-Structured Algorithm of Speaker Adaptation Based on Gaussian Similarity Analysis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WU Ji; WANG Zuoying

    2001-01-01

    Gaussian Similarity Analysis (GSA)algorithm can be used to estimate the similarity between two Gaussian distributed variables with full covariance matrix. Based on this algorithm, we propose a method in speaker adaptation of covariance. It is different from the traditional algorithms, which mainly focus on the adaptation of mean vector of state observation probability density. A binary decision tree is constructed offline with the similarity measure and the adaptation procedure is data-driven. It can be shown from the experiments that we can get a significant further improvement over the mean vectors adaptation.

  18. Ranking Efficient and Inefficient Decision Making Units in Data Envelopment Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rita Markovits-Somogyi

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Data envelopment analysis is a non-parametric linear programming method capable of the efficiency evaluation of decision making units (e.g. public transport companies. It is very often used in the transport sector for the efficiency assessment of airports, ports, railways and public transport companies. However, the original DEA method does not differentiate the efficient firms and thus, does not create full ranking. To overcome this problem, several methods have been developed with the aim of enlarging the distinguishing power of DEA. The present article aims to review these methods with a special emphasis on the ones elaborated in the last decade.

  19. A Geospatial Cyberinfrastructure for Urban Economic Analysis and Spatial Decision-Making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael F. Goodchild

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Urban economic modeling and effective spatial planning are critical tools towards achieving urban sustainability. However, in practice, many technical obstacles, such as information islands, poor documentation of data and lack of software platforms to facilitate virtual collaboration, are challenging the effectiveness of decision-making processes. In this paper, we report on our efforts to design and develop a geospatial cyberinfrastructure (GCI for urban economic analysis and simulation. This GCI provides an operational graphic user interface, built upon a service-oriented architecture to allow (1 widespread sharing and seamless integration of distributed geospatial data; (2 an effective way to address the uncertainty and positional errors encountered in fusing data from diverse sources; (3 the decomposition of complex planning questions into atomic spatial analysis tasks and the generation of a web service chain to tackle such complex problems; and (4 capturing and representing provenance of geospatial data to trace its flow in the modeling task. The Greater Los Angeles Region serves as the test bed. We expect this work to contribute to effective spatial policy analysis and decision-making through the adoption of advanced GCI and to broaden the application coverage of GCI to include urban economic simulations.

  20. A decision-theory approach to interpretable set analysis for high-dimensional data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boca, Simina M; Bravo, Héctor Céorrada; Caffo, Brian; Leek, Jeffrey T; Parmigiani, Giovanni

    2013-09-01

    A key problem in high-dimensional significance analysis is to find pre-defined sets that show enrichment for a statistical signal of interest; the classic example is the enrichment of gene sets for differentially expressed genes. Here, we propose a new decision-theory approach to the analysis of gene sets which focuses on estimating the fraction of non-null variables in a set. We introduce the idea of "atoms," non-overlapping sets based on the original pre-defined set annotations. Our approach focuses on finding the union of atoms that minimizes a weighted average of the number of false discoveries and missed discoveries. We introduce a new false discovery rate for sets, called the atomic false discovery rate (afdr), and prove that the optimal estimator in our decision-theory framework is to threshold the afdr. These results provide a coherent and interpretable framework for the analysis of sets that addresses the key issues of overlapping annotations and difficulty in interpreting p values in both competitive and self-contained tests. We illustrate our method and compare it to a popular existing method using simulated examples, as well as gene-set and brain ROI data analyses.

  1. Rescue and preservation of Serra da Mesa hydroelectric power plant flora; Salvamento e conservacao da flora de UHE Serra da Mesa

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Santos, H.G.P.; Silva, S.P.C. da [FURNAS, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Walter, B.M.T. [Empresa Brasileira de Pesquisa Agropecuaria, (Brazil). CENARGEN

    1993-12-31

    This report shows what is being doing to rescue and preserve the flora affected by the construction of the Serra da Mesa hydroelectric power plant. A survey concerning the existent flora on the area influenced by the undertaking is proceeded and the first results of such survey are here presented 5 refs., 2 tabs.

  2. Applying Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis to Comparative Benefit-Risk Assessment: Choosing among Statins in Primary Prevention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tervonen, Tommi; Naci, Huseyin; van Valkenhoef, Gert; Ades, Anthony E; Angelis, Aris; Hillege, Hans L; Postmus, Douwe

    2015-10-01

    Decision makers in different health care settings need to weigh the benefits and harms of alternative treatment strategies. Such health care decisions include marketing authorization by regulatory agencies, practice guideline formulation by clinical groups, and treatment selection by prescribers and patients in clinical practice. Multiple criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is a family of formal methods that help make explicit the tradeoffs that decision makers accept between the benefit and risk outcomes of different treatment options. Despite the recent interest in MCDA, certain methodological aspects are poorly understood. This paper presents 7 guidelines for applying MCDA in benefit-risk assessment and illustrates their use in the selection of a statin drug for the primary prevention of cardiovascular disease. We provide guidance on the key methodological issues of how to define the decision problem, how to select a set of nonoverlapping evaluation criteria, how to synthesize and summarize the evidence, how to translate relative measures to absolute ones that permit comparisons between the criteria, how to define suitable scale ranges, how to elicit partial preference information from the decision makers, and how to incorporate uncertainty in the analysis. Our example on statins indicates that fluvastatin is likely to be the most preferred drug by our decision maker and that this result is insensitive to the amount of preference information incorporated in the analysis.

  3. Estimation of Groundwater Recharge at Pahute Mesa using the Chloride Mass-Balance Method

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cooper, Clay A [DRI; Hershey, Ronald L [DRI; Healey, John M [DRI; Lyles, Brad F [DRI

    2013-07-01

    Groundwater recharge on Pahute Mesa was estimated using the chloride mass-balance (CMB) method. This method relies on the conservative properties of chloride to trace its movement from the atmosphere as dry- and wet-deposition through the soil zone and ultimately to the saturated zone. Typically, the CMB method assumes no mixing of groundwater with different chloride concentrations; however, because groundwater is thought to flow into Pahute Mesa from valleys north of Pahute Mesa, groundwater flow rates (i.e., underflow) and chloride concentrations from Kawich Valley and Gold Flat were carefully considered. Precipitation was measured with bulk and tipping-bucket precipitation gauges installed for this study at six sites on Pahute Mesa. These data, along with historical precipitation amounts from gauges on Pahute Mesa and estimates from the PRISM model, were evaluated to estimate mean annual precipitation. Chloride deposition from the atmosphere was estimated by analyzing quarterly samples of wet- and dry-deposition for chloride in the bulk gauges and evaluating chloride wet-deposition amounts measured at other locations by the National Atmospheric Deposition Program. Mean chloride concentrations in groundwater were estimated using data from the UGTA Geochemistry Database, data from other reports, and data from samples collected from emplacement boreholes for this study. Calculations were conducted assuming both no underflow and underflow from Kawich Valley and Gold Flat. Model results estimate recharge to be 30 mm/yr with a standard deviation of 18 mm/yr on Pahute Mesa, for elevations >1800 m amsl. These estimates assume Pahute Mesa recharge mixes completely with underflow from Kawich Valley and Gold Flat. The model assumes that precipitation, chloride concentration in bulk deposition, underflow and its chloride concentration, have been constant over the length of time of recharge.

  4. Vocationally Mature Coping Strategies and Progress in the Decision-Making Process: A Canonical Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phillips, Susan D.; Strohmer, Douglas C.

    1983-01-01

    Examined the relationship between factors influencing career development and the decision-making process in 174 students. Results suggested that planning orientation will hinder or facilitate movement beyond the exploratory phase of decision making, and decision-making skills reduce the effort of the prechoice portion of decision making. (WAS)

  5. Integrating human and robot decision-making dynamics with feedback : Models and convergence analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cao, Ming; Stewart, Andrew; Leonard, Naomi Ehrich

    2008-01-01

    Leveraging research by psychologists on human decision-making, we present a human-robot decision-making problem associated with a complex task and study the corresponding joint decision-making dynamics. The collaborative task is designed so that the human makes decisions just as human subjects make

  6. Multi-criteria decision analysis for health technology assessment in Canada: insights from an expert panel discussion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diaby, Vakaramoko; Goeree, Ron; Hoch, Jeffrey; Siebert, Uwe

    2015-02-01

    Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA), a decision-making tool, has received increasing attention in recent years, notably in the healthcare field. For Canada, it is unclear whether and how MCDA should be incorporated into the existing health technology assessment (HTA) decision-making process. To facilitate debate on improving HTA decision-making in Canada, a workshop was held in conjunction with the 8th World Congress on Health Economics of the International Health Economics Association in Toronto, Canada in July 2011. The objective of the workshop was to discuss the potential benefits and challenges related to the use of MCDA for HTA decision-making in Canada. This paper summarizes and discusses the recommendations of an expert panel convened at the workshop to discuss opportunities and concerns with reference to the implementation of MCDA in Canada.

  7. Addressing preference heterogeneity in public health policy by combining Cluster Analysis and Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis: Proof of Method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaltoft, Mette Kjer; Turner, Robin; Cunich, Michelle; Salkeld, Glenn; Nielsen, Jesper Bo; Dowie, Jack

    2015-01-01

    The use of subgroups based on biological-clinical and socio-demographic variables to deal with population heterogeneity is well-established in public policy. The use of subgroups based on preferences is rare, except when religion based, and controversial. If it were decided to treat subgroup preferences as valid determinants of public policy, a transparent analytical procedure is needed. In this proof of method study we show how public preferences could be incorporated into policy decisions in a way that respects both the multi-criterial nature of those decisions, and the heterogeneity of the population in relation to the importance assigned to relevant criteria. It involves combining Cluster Analysis (CA), to generate the subgroup sets of preferences, with Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA), to provide the policy framework into which the clustered preferences are entered. We employ three techniques of CA to demonstrate that not only do different techniques produce different clusters, but that choosing among techniques (as well as developing the MCDA structure) is an important task to be undertaken in implementing the approach outlined in any specific policy context. Data for the illustrative, not substantive, application are from a Randomized Controlled Trial of online decision aids for Australian men aged 40-69 years considering Prostate-specific Antigen testing for prostate cancer. We show that such analyses can provide policy-makers with insights into the criterion-specific needs of different subgroups. Implementing CA and MCDA in combination to assist in the development of policies on important health and community issues such as drug coverage, reimbursement, and screening programs, poses major challenges -conceptual, methodological, ethical-political, and practical - but most are exposed by the techniques, not created by them.

  8. Continued investigations of the occurrence of water in Pahute Mesa emplacement holes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hershey, R.L.; Brikowski, T.H.

    1995-04-01

    Periodically, water has been observed in emplacement boreholes drilled for underground testing of nuclear weapons at Pahute Mesa, Nevada Test Site, and is often at levels elevated above the predicted local water table. Water which may provide a means to transport residual radionuclides away from weapon tests may originate as fluids introduced during drilling, from naturally perched groundwater draining into the borehole, or from penetration of the local groundwater table. Lithium-bromide (Li-Br) tracer is being used to evaluate both the origin and movement of these borehole waters. The drilling fluid used to drill the final 100 meters of borehole U-19bh was chemically labeled with LiBr tracer. Lack of significant increase in borehole Br inventory over time indicates that standing water in U-9bh is not returned drilling fluid. Possible sources for the standing water are drilling fluid infiltrated above the bottom 100 in or natural water from a perched or shallower-than-expected saturated zone. The minimum detectable Darcy velocity of water passing through U-19bh is 0.3 m/yr. Borehole U-19bk has a water level approximately 50 in above the predicted pre-drilling water level. Initial water samples were collected from U-19bk to characterize the borehole water quality prior to adding the tracer. The major-ion analytical results of U-19bk along with historical water quality analyses of Water Well 20 and water well UE-19c show that all three waters are similar in character and therefore the water in U-19bk may be either residual drilling fluids originating from Water Well 20 and UE-19c or naturally occurring Pahute Mesa groundwater. LiBr tracer was added to the U-19bk borehole and samples for tracer analysis were collected one month later. For the one month period, no detectable loss of Br was observed. Over this short time period, the minimum detectable Darcy velocity is 10.6 m/yr.

  9. From "weight of evidence" to quantitative data integration using multicriteria decision analysis and Bayesian methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linkov, Igor; Massey, Olivia; Keisler, Jeff; Rusyn, Ivan; Hartung, Thomas

    2015-01-01

    "Weighing" available evidence in the process of decision-making is unavoidable, yet it is one step that routinely raises suspicions: what evidence should be used, how much does it weigh, and whose thumb may be tipping the scales? This commentary aims to evaluate the current state and future roles of various types of evidence for hazard assessment as it applies to environmental health. In its recent evaluation of the US Environmental Protection Agency's Integrated Risk Information System assessment process, the National Research Council committee singled out the term "weight of evidence" (WoE) for critique, deeming the process too vague and detractive to the practice of evaluating human health risks of chemicals. Moving the methodology away from qualitative, vague and controversial methods towards generalizable, quantitative and transparent methods for appropriately managing diverse lines of evidence is paramount for both regulatory and public acceptance of the hazard assessments. The choice of terminology notwithstanding, a number of recent Bayesian WoE-based methods, the emergence of multi criteria decision analysis for WoE applications, as well as the general principles behind the foundational concepts of WoE, show promise in how to move forward and regain trust in the data integration step of the assessments. We offer our thoughts on the current state of WoE as a whole and while we acknowledge that many WoE applications have been largely qualitative and subjective in nature, we see this as an opportunity to turn WoE towards a quantitative direction that includes Bayesian and multi criteria decision analysis.

  10. Analysis of Decision Trees in Context Clustering of Hidden Markov Model Based Thai Speech Synthesis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Suphattharachai Chomphan

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Problem statement: In Thai speech synthesis using Hidden Markov model (HMM based synthesis system, the tonal speech quality is degraded due to tone distortion. This major problem must be treated appropriately to preserve the tone characteristics of each syllable unit. Since tone brings about the intelligibility of the synthesized speech. It is needed to establish the tone questions and other phonetic questions in tree-based context clustering process accordingly. Approach: This study describes the analysis of questions in tree-based context clustering process of an HMM-based speech synthesis system for Thai language. In the system, spectrum, pitch or F0 and state duration are modeled simultaneously in a unified framework of HMM, their parameter distributions are clustered independently by using a decision-tree based context clustering technique. The contextual factors which affect spectrum, pitch and duration, i.e., part of speech, position and number of phones in a syllable, position and number of syllables in a word, position and number of words in a sentence, phone type and tone type, are taken into account for constructing the questions of the decision tree. All in all, thirteen sets of questions are analyzed in comparison. Results: In the experiment, we analyzed the decision trees by counting the number of questions in each node coming from those thirteen sets and by calculating the dominance score given to each question as the reciprocal of the distance from the root node to the question node. The highest number and dominance score are of the set of phonetic type, while the second, third highest ones are of the set of part of speech and tone type. Conclusion: By counting the number of questions in each node and calculating the dominance score, we can set the priority of each question set. All in all, the analysis results bring about further development of Thai speech synthesis with efficient context clustering process in

  11. MARKETING MIX ANALYSIS OF NATURAL TOURISM AREA 'KAWAH PUTIH’ AND ITS EFFECT ON VISITORS’ DECISION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Isyana Rahayu

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Kawah Putih is one of the leading tourist places in Bandung which has significantly contributed to the revenue of travel business division in the Forestry Housing as the manager. The revenue obtained depends on the marketing mix strategy conducted by the management because the marketing mix is the elements which become a consideration basis when making marketing communication strategy services in order to understand the demands of tourists. Therefore, the objectives of this study were to obtain and understand information and analyze the visitors’ responses on the natural tourism area related to the marketing mix that has been implemented by the management. The dependent variables included the elements of marketing mix, that involves 7P – product, price, place, promotion, people, procees and physical evidence, while the independent variable included the visitors’ decision. From the validity and tests, it is revealed that the overall regression model bring effects or at least there is one variable of the marketing mix factors that influences the decision of the visitors. From the data analysis, it is found that the process variables and physical appearance do not significantly affect the decision of the visitors. The other variables. that involve variables of product, price, place, promotion, and human have significantly influence the visitors’ decision.Keywords: Marketing mix, Kawah Putih, decision of visitors, touristsABSTRAKKawah Putih merupakan salah satu wisata unggulan Kota Bandung dan telah berkontribusi cukup signifikan untuk pendapatan divisi bisnis wisata Perum Perhutani. Pendapatan yang diperoleh tergantung dari strategi bauran pemasaran yang dilakukan oleh pengelola karena pada bauran pemasaran terdapat unsur atau elemen yang menjadi dasar pertimbangan pembuatan strategi komunikasi pemasaran jasa dalam rangka untuk memahami tuntutan dari wisatawan. Tujuan penelitian ini adalah memperoleh informasi, memahami dan menganalisis

  12. Groundwater, surface-water, and water-chemistry data, Black Mesa area, northeastern Arizona—2012–2013

    Science.gov (United States)

    Macy, Jamie P.; Truini, Margot

    2016-03-02

    -level change for 34 wells in both the confined and unconfined areas was -13.5 feet; the median water-level changes were -0.8 feet for 16 wells measured in the unconfined areas and -51.0 feet for 16 wells measured in the confined area.Spring flow was measured at four springs in 2013; Burro, Unnamed Spring near Dennehotso, Moenkopi School, and Pasture Canyon Springs. Flow fluctuated during the period of record for Burro and Unnamed Springs near Dennehotso, but a decreasing trend was apparent at Moenkopi School Spring and Pasture Canyon Spring. Discharge at Burro Spring has remained relatively constant since it was first measured in the 1980s and discharge at Unnamed Spring near Dennehotso has fluctuated for the period of record at each spring. Trend analysis for discharge at Moenkopi School and Pasture Canyon Springs showed a decreasing trend.Continuous records of surface-water discharge in the Black Mesa area were collected from streamflow-gaging stations at the following sites: Moenkopi Wash at Moenkopi 09401260 (1976 to 2013), Dinnebito Wash near Sand Springs 09401110 (1993 to 2013), Polacca Wash near Second Mesa 09400568 (1994 to 2013), and Pasture Canyon Springs 09401265 (2004 to 2013). Median winter flows (November through February) from these sites for each water year were used as an index of the amount of groundwater discharge. For the period of record of each streamflow-gaging station, the median winter flows have generally remained constant, which suggests no change in groundwater discharge.In 2013, water samples collected from 12 wells and 4 springs in the Black Mesa area were analyzed for selected chemical constituents, and the results were compared with previous analyses. Concentrations of dissolved solids, chloride, and sulfate have varied at all 12 wells for the period of record, but neither increasing nor decreasing trends over time were found. Dissolved solids, chloride, and sulfate concentrations increased at Moenkopi School Spring during the more than 13 years

  13. Groundwater, surface-water, and water-chemistry data, Black Mesa area, northeastern Arizona: 2011-2012

    Science.gov (United States)

    Macy, Jamie P.; Unema, Joel A.

    2014-01-01

    the confined and unconfined areas was -13.4 feet; the median water-level changes were -2.1 feet for 16 wells measured in the unconfined areas and -39.1 feet for 18 wells measured in the confined area. Spring flow was measured at four springs in 2012. Flow fluctuated during the period of record for Burro and Unnamed Spring near Dennehotso, but a decreasing trend was apparent at Moenkopi School Spring and Pasture Canyon Spring. Discharge at Burro Spring has remained relatively constant since it was first measured in the 1980s and discharge at Unnamed Spring near Dennehotso has fluctuated for the period of record. Trend analysis for discharge at Moenkopi and Pasture Canyon Springs yielded a slope significantly different from zero. Continuous records of surface-water discharge in the Black Mesa area were collected from streamflow-gaging stations at the following sites: Moenkopi Wash at Moenkopi 09401260 (1976 to 2010), Dinnebito Wash near Sand Springs 09401110 (1993 to 2010), Polacca Wash near Second Mesa 09400568 (1994 to 2010), and Pasture Canyon Springs 09401265 (2004 to 2010). Median winter flows (November through February) of each water year were used as an index of the amount of groundwater discharge at the above-named sites. For the period of record of each streamflow-gaging station, the median winter flows have generally remained constant, and there are no significant statistical trends in groundwater discharge. In 2012, water samples collected from 10 wells and 4 springs in the Black Mesa area were analyzed for selected chemical constituents, and the results were compared with previous analyses. Concentrations of dissolved solids, chloride, and sulfate have varied at all 10 wells for the period of record, but neither increasing nor decreasing trends over time were found. Dissolved solids, chloride, and sulfate concentrations increased at Moenkopi School Spring during the more than 12 years of record at that site. Concentrations of dissolved solids, chloride, and

  14. Ex post power economic analysis of record of decision operational restrictions at Glen Canyon Dam.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Veselka, T. D.; Poch, L. A.; Palmer, C. S.; Loftin, S.; Osiek, B; Decision and Information Sciences; Western Area Power Administration

    2010-07-31

    On October 9, 1996, Bruce Babbitt, then-Secretary of the U.S. Department of the Interior signed the Record of Decision (ROD) on operating criteria for the Glen Canyon Dam (GCD). Criteria selected were based on the Modified Low Fluctuating Flow (MLFF) Alternative as described in the Operation of Glen Canyon Dam, Colorado River Storage Project, Arizona, Final Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) (Reclamation 1995). These restrictions reduced the operating flexibility of the hydroelectric power plant and therefore its economic value. The EIS provided impact information to support the ROD, including an analysis of operating criteria alternatives on power system economics. This ex post study reevaluates ROD power economic impacts and compares these results to the economic analysis performed prior (ex ante) to the ROD for the MLFF Alternative. On the basis of the methodology used in the ex ante analysis, anticipated annual economic impacts of the ROD were estimated to range from approximately $15.1 million to $44.2 million in terms of 1991 dollars ($1991). This ex post analysis incorporates historical events that took place between 1997 and 2005, including the evolution of power markets in the Western Electricity Coordinating Council as reflected in market prices for capacity and energy. Prompted by ROD operational restrictions, this analysis also incorporates a decision made by the Western Area Power Administration to modify commitments that it made to its customers. Simulated operations of GCD were based on the premise that hourly production patterns would maximize the economic value of the hydropower resource. On the basis of this assumption, it was estimated that economic impacts were on average $26.3 million in $1991, or $39 million in $2009.

  15. NATO Guide for Judgement-Based Operational Analysis in Defence Decision Making : Analyst-Oriented Volume - Code of Best Practice for Soft Operational Analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wijnmalen, D.J.D.; et al

    2012-01-01

    Judgment plays an important role in all Operational Analysis (OA). NATO practitioners have determined that approaches in OA that are based on human judgement are increasingly critical to defence decision making. The purpose of the NATO Guide for Judgement-Based OA in Defence Decision Making is to cr

  16. Strategic rehabilitation planning of piped water networks using multi-criteria decision analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scholten, Lisa; Scheidegger, Andreas; Reichert, Peter; Maurer, Max; Mauer, Max; Lienert, Judit

    2014-02-01

    To overcome the difficulties of strategic asset management of water distribution networks, a pipe failure and a rehabilitation model are combined to predict the long-term performance of rehabilitation strategies. Bayesian parameter estimation is performed to calibrate the failure and replacement model based on a prior distribution inferred from three large water utilities in Switzerland. Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) and scenario planning build the framework for evaluating 18 strategic rehabilitation alternatives under future uncertainty. Outcomes for three fundamental objectives (low costs, high reliability, and high intergenerational equity) are assessed. Exploitation of stochastic dominance concepts helps to identify twelve non-dominated alternatives and local sensitivity analysis of stakeholder preferences is used to rank them under four scenarios. Strategies with annual replacement of 1.5-2% of the network perform reasonably well under all scenarios. In contrast, the commonly used reactive replacement is not recommendable unless cost is the only relevant objective. Exemplified for a small Swiss water utility, this approach can readily be adapted to support strategic asset management for any utility size and based on objectives and preferences that matter to the respective decision makers.

  17. Application of effective discharge analysis to environmental flow decision-making

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKay, S. Kyle; Freeman, Mary C.; Covich, A.P.

    2016-01-01

    Well-informed river management decisions rely on an explicit statement of objectives, repeatable analyses, and a transparent system for assessing trade-offs. These components may then be applied to compare alternative operational regimes for water resource infrastructure (e.g., diversions, locks, and dams). Intra- and inter-annual hydrologic variability further complicates these already complex environmental flow decisions. Effective discharge analysis (developed in studies of geomorphology) is a powerful tool for integrating temporal variability of flow magnitude and associated ecological consequences. Here, we adapt the effectiveness framework to include multiple elements of the natural flow regime (i.e., timing, duration, and rate-of-change) as well as two flow variables. We demonstrate this analytical approach using a case study of environmental flow management based on long-term (60 years) daily discharge records in the Middle Oconee River near Athens, GA, USA. Specifically, we apply an existing model for estimating young-of-year fish recruitment based on flow-dependent metrics to an effective discharge analysis that incorporates hydrologic variability and multiple focal taxa. We then compare three alternative methods of environmental flow provision. Percentage-based withdrawal schemes outcompete other environmental flow methods across all levels of water withdrawal and ecological outcomes.

  18. Microvascular Decompression Versus Stereotactic Radiosurgery for Trigeminal Neuralgia: A Decision Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berger, Ian; Nayak, Nikhil; Schuster, James; Lee, John; Stein, Sherman

    2017-01-01

    Introduction: Both microvascular decompression (MVD) and stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS) have been demonstrated to be effective in treating medically refractory trigeminal neuralgia. However, there is controversy over which one offers more durable pain relief and the patient selection for each treatment. We used a decision analysis model to calculate the health-related quality of life (QOL) for each treatment. Methods: We searched PubMed and the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews for relevant articles on MVD or SRS for trigeminal neuralgia published between 2000 and 2015. Using data from these studies, we modeled pain relief and complication outcomes and assigned QOL values. A sensitivity analysis using a Monte Carlo simulation determined which procedure led to the greatest QOL. Results: MVD produced a significantly higher QOL than SRS at a seven-year follow-up. Additionally, MVD patients had a significantly higher rate of complete pain relief and a significantly lower rate of complications and recurrence. Conclusions: With a decision-analytic model, we calculated that MVD provides more favorable outcomes than SRS for the treatment of trigeminal neuralgia. PMID:28280653

  19. Application of Effective Discharge Analysis to Environmental Flow Decision-Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKay, S. Kyle; Freeman, Mary C.; Covich, Alan P.

    2016-06-01

    Well-informed river management decisions rely on an explicit statement of objectives, repeatable analyses, and a transparent system for assessing trade-offs. These components may then be applied to compare alternative operational regimes for water resource infrastructure (e.g., diversions, locks, and dams). Intra- and inter-annual hydrologic variability further complicates these already complex environmental flow decisions. Effective discharge analysis (developed in studies of geomorphology) is a powerful tool for integrating temporal variability of flow magnitude and associated ecological consequences. Here, we adapt the effectiveness framework to include multiple elements of the natural flow regime (i.e., timing, duration, and rate-of-change) as well as two flow variables. We demonstrate this analytical approach using a case study of environmental flow management based on long-term (60 years) daily discharge records in the Middle Oconee River near Athens, GA, USA. Specifically, we apply an existing model for estimating young-of-year fish recruitment based on flow-dependent metrics to an effective discharge analysis that incorporates hydrologic variability and multiple focal taxa. We then compare three alternative methods of environmental flow provision. Percentage-based withdrawal schemes outcompete other environmental flow methods across all levels of water withdrawal and ecological outcomes.

  20. Image data integration and analysis for natural disaster decision support systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roper, William E.

    2001-06-01

    Natural disasters have a major impact, globally and within the United States causing injury and loss of life, as well as economic losses. To better address disaster response needs, a task force has been established to leverage technological capabilities to improve disaster response management. Web based geospatial analysis is one of these important capabilities. Samples of geospatial technologies applicable to disaster management are presented. These include 3D visualization, hyperspectral imagery, LIDAR, use of spectral libraries, digital multispectral video, radar imaging systems, photogeologic analysis and geographic information systems. An example scenario of a hurricane with landfall at Mobile, Alabama is used to demonstrate the interoperable use of web-based geospatial information to support decision support systems and assist public information communication.

  1. Analysis and design of a web-based decision support system for choosing higher education studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kostoglou Vassilis

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The vocational orientation of the youngsters who are about to enter, study, or have recently graduated at higher education (HE institutions, and linking HE with labor market are two research areas which have not been investigated extensively in Balkan countries. Job (or occupational profiles, among other tools used in vocational orientation, provide standardized and digitized descriptions of different professions. This article focuses on the analysis and the design of a web-based decision support system (DSS to assist its users in getting thoroughly informed about HE studies in Greece, and eventually in choosing their vocational prospects. Apart from reviewing the related previous research work and relevant web-based systems, we present the main elements of the system’s analysis and its design, the extensions that could lead to even more powerful systems, and conclusions about the advantages, limitations and practical application of the DSS.

  2. Interim analysis: A rational approach of decision making in clinical trial

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, Amal; Chakraborty, Bhaswat S.

    2016-01-01

    Interim analysis of especially sizeable trials keeps the decision process free of conflict of interest while considering cost, resources, and meaningfulness of the project. Whenever necessary, such interim analysis can also call for potential termination or appropriate modification in sample size, study design, and even an early declaration of success. Given the extraordinary size and complexity today, this rational approach helps to analyze and predict the outcomes of a clinical trial that incorporate what is learned during the course of a study or a clinical development program. Such approach can also fill the gap by directing the resources toward relevant and optimized clinical trials between unmet medical needs and interventions being tested currently rather than fulfilling only business and profit goals. PMID:27833889

  3. Modules for Experiments in Stellar Astrophysics (MESA): Giant Planets, Oscillations, Rotation, and Massive Stars

    CERN Document Server

    Paxton, Bill; Arras, Phil; Bildsten, Lars; Brown, Edward F; Dotter, Aaron; Mankovich, Christopher; Montgomery, M H; Stello, Dennis; Timmes, F X; Townsend, Richard

    2013-01-01

    We substantially update the capabilities of the open source software package Modules for Experiments in Stellar Astrophysics (MESA), and its one-dimensional stellar evolution module, MESA Star. Improvements in MESA Star's ability to model the evolution of giant planets now extends its applicability down to masses as low as one-tenth that of Jupiter. The dramatic improvement in asteroseismology enabled by the space-based Kepler and CoRoT missions motivates our full coupling of the ADIPLS adiabatic pulsation code with MESA Star. This also motivates a numerical recasting of the Ledoux criterion that is more easily implemented when many nuclei are present at non-negligible abundances. This impacts the way in which MESA Star calculates semi-convective and thermohaline mixing. We exhibit the evolution of 3-8 Msun stars through the end of core He burning, the onset of He thermal pulses, and arrival on the white dwarf cooling sequence. We implement diffusion of angular momentum and chemical abundances that enable cal...

  4. Decision Analysis Methods Used to Make Appropriate Investments in Human Exploration Capabilities and Technologies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams-Byrd, Julie; Arney, Dale C.; Hay, Jason; Reeves, John D.; Craig, Douglas

    2016-01-01

    NASA is transforming human spaceflight. The Agency is shifting from an exploration-based program with human activities in low Earth orbit (LEO) and targeted robotic missions in deep space to a more sustainable and integrated pioneering approach. Through pioneering, NASA seeks to address national goals to develop the capacity for people to work, learn, operate, live, and thrive safely beyond Earth for extended periods of time. However, pioneering space involves daunting technical challenges of transportation, maintaining health, and enabling crew productivity for long durations in remote, hostile, and alien environments. Prudent investments in capability and technology developments, based on mission need, are critical for enabling a campaign of human exploration missions. There are a wide variety of capabilities and technologies that could enable these missions, so it is a major challenge for NASA's Human Exploration and Operations Mission Directorate (HEOMD) to make knowledgeable portfolio decisions. It is critical for this pioneering initiative that these investment decisions are informed with a prioritization process that is robust and defensible. It is NASA's role to invest in targeted technologies and capabilities that would enable exploration missions even though specific requirements have not been identified. To inform these investments decisions, NASA's HEOMD has supported a variety of analysis activities that prioritize capabilities and technologies. These activities are often based on input from subject matter experts within the NASA community who understand the technical challenges of enabling human exploration missions. This paper will review a variety of processes and methods that NASA has used to prioritize and rank capabilities and technologies applicable to human space exploration. The paper will show the similarities in the various processes and showcase instances were customer specified priorities force modifications to the process. Specifically

  5. Adaptation and Evaluation of a Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis Model for Lyme Disease Prevention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aenishaenslin, Cécile; Gern, Lise; Michel, Pascal; Ravel, André; Hongoh, Valérie; Waaub, Jean-Philippe; Milord, François; Bélanger, Denise

    2015-01-01

    Designing preventive programs relevant to vector-borne diseases such as Lyme disease (LD) can be complex given the need to include multiple issues and perspectives into prioritizing public health actions. A multi-criteria decision aid (MCDA) model was previously used to rank interventions for LD prevention in Quebec, Canada, where the disease is emerging. The aim of the current study was to adapt and evaluate the decision model constructed in Quebec under a different epidemiological context, in Switzerland, where LD has been endemic for the last thirty years. The model adaptation was undertaken with a group of Swiss stakeholders using a participatory approach. The PROMETHEE method was used for multi-criteria analysis. Key elements and results of the MCDA model are described and contrasted with the Quebec model. All criteria and most interventions of the MCDA model developed for LD prevention in Quebec were directly transferable to the Swiss context. Four new decision criteria were added, and the list of proposed interventions was modified. Based on the overall group ranking, interventions targeting human populations were prioritized in the Swiss model, with the top ranked action being the implementation of a large communication campaign. The addition of criteria did not significantly alter the intervention rankings, but increased the capacity of the model to discriminate between highest and lowest ranked interventions. The current study suggests that beyond the specificity of the MCDA models developed for Quebec and Switzerland, their general structure captures the fundamental and common issues that characterize the complexity of vector-borne disease prevention. These results should encourage public health organizations to adapt, use and share MCDA models as an effective and functional approach to enable the integration of multiple perspectives and considerations in the prevention and control of complex public health issues such as Lyme disease or other vector

  6. Airports’ Operational Performance and Efficiency Evaluation Based on Multicriteria Decision Analysis (MCDA and Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA Tools

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    João Jardim

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Airport benchmarking depends on airports’ operational performance and efficiency indicators, which are important for business agents, operational managers, regulatory agencies, airlines and passengers. There are several sets of single and complex indicators to evaluate airports’ performance and efficiency as well as several techniques to benchmark such infrastructures. The general aim of this work is twofold: to balance the data envelopment analysis (DEA and multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA tools and to show that airport benchmarking is also possible using a multicriteria decision analysis tool called Measuring Attractiveness by a Categorical Based Evaluation Technique (MACBETH. Whilst DEA measures the relative performance in the presence of multiple inputs and outputs, MCDA/ MACBETH uses performance and efficiency indicators to support benchmark results, being useful for evaluating the real importance and weight of the selected indicators. The work is structured as follows: first, a state-of-the-art review concerning either airport benchmarking and performance indicators or DEA and MCDA tool techniques; second, an overview of the impacts on airports’ operational performance and efficiency of emergent operational factors (sudden meteorological/natural phenomena; third, two case studies on a set of worldwide airports and Madeira (FNC Airport; and fourth, some insights into and challenges for future research that are still under development.

  7. How accurate are interpretations of curriculum-based measurement progress monitoring data? Visual analysis versus decision rules.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Norman, Ethan R; Christ, Theodore J

    2016-10-01

    Curriculum based measurement of oral reading (CBM-R) is used to monitor the effects of academic interventions for individual students. Decisions to continue, modify, or terminate these interventions are made by interpreting time series CBM-R data. Such interpretation is founded upon visual analysis or the application of decision rules. The purpose of this study was to compare the accuracy of visual analysis and decision rules. Visual analysts interpreted 108 CBM-R progress monitoring graphs one of three ways: (a) without graphic aids, (b) with a goal line, or (c) with a goal line and a trend line. Graphs differed along three dimensions, including trend magnitude, variability of observations, and duration of data collection. Automated trend line and data point decision rules were also applied to each graph. Inferential analyses permitted the estimation of the probability of a correct decision (i.e., the student is improving - continue the intervention, or the student is not improving - discontinue the intervention) for each evaluation method as a function of trend magnitude, variability of observations, and duration of data collection. All evaluation methods performed better when students made adequate progress. Visual analysis and decision rules performed similarly when observations were less variable. Results suggest that educators should collect data for more than six weeks, take steps to control measurement error, and visually analyze graphs when data are variable. Implications for practice and research are discussed.

  8. Manager’s decision-making in organizations –empirical analysis of bureaucratic vs. learning approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jana Frenová

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available The paper is focused on the study of manager’s decision-making with respect to the basic model of learning organization, presented by P. Senge as a system model of management. On one hand, the empirical research was conducted in connection with key dimensions of organizational learning such as: 1. system thinking, 2. personal mastery, 3. mental models, 4. team learning, 5. building shared vision and 6. dynamics causes. On the other hand, the research was connected with the analysis of the bureaucratic logic of decision-making process, characterized by non-functional stability, inflexibility, individualism, power, authority and hierarchy, centralization, vagueness, fragmentariness. The objective of the research was to analyse to what extent manager’s decision–making is based on bureaucratic tools or organizational learning in either complex problem-solving or non-problemsolving decision-making. (MANOVA, method of the repeated measure, intersubject factor – situation: 1. non problematic, 2. problematic. The conclusion of analysis is that there are significant differences in character of solving of problem situation and non-problem situation decision-making: the bureaucratic attributes of decision-making are more intensive in problematic situations while learning approach is more actual in non-problematic situations. The results of our analysis have shown that managers who apply the learning organization attributes in their decision-making. are more successful in problem-solving.

  9. Response surface method using grey relational analysis for decision making in weapon system selection

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Peng Wang; Peng Meng; Baowei Song

    2014-01-01

    A proper weapon system is very important for a na-tional defense system. General y, it means selecting the optimal weapon system among many alternatives, which is a multiple-attribute decision making (MADM) problem. This paper proposes a new mathematical model based on the response surface method (RSM) and the grey relational analysis (GRA). RSM is used to obtain the experimental points and analyze the factors that have a significant impact on the selection results. GRA is used to an-alyze the trend relationship between alternatives and reference series. And then an RSM model is obtained, which can be used to calculate al alternatives and obtain ranking results. A real world application is introduced to il ustrate the utilization of the model for the weapon selection problem. The results show that this model can be used to help decision-makers to make a quick comparison of alternatives and select a proper weapon system from multiple alternatives, which is an effective and adaptable method for solving the weapon system selection problem.

  10. Development of Decision Support Process for Building Energy Conservation Measures and Economic Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bo-Eun Choi

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available As policies for energy efficiency of buildings are being actively implemented, building energy performance improvement is urgently required. However, in Korea, information on measures and technologies for building energy efficiency is dispersed and concrete methods are not established, making it difficult to apply effective measures. Therefore, it is required to apply and evaluate energy efficiency measures through database construction integrating diverse information. In this study, the energy efficiency measures in the architectural sector that satisfy domestic legal standards are built. Because of the economic evaluation is necessary for the constructed alternatives, an economic efficiency database was established. The target building was set up, and energy efficiency measures were derived. In addition, a methodology that can induce energy efficient decision making of buildings was proposed, and the energy use evaluation and the economic analysis for each of the alternatives derived from applying the methodology to the target building were carried out. Furthermore, the optimal energy efficiency measures for the target building were suggested through the application of the decision-making process.

  11. Multi-criteria decision analysis of concentrated solar power with thermal energy storage and dry cooling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klein, Sharon J W

    2013-12-17

    Decisions about energy backup and cooling options for parabolic trough (PT) concentrated solar power have technical, economic, and environmental implications. Although PT development has increased rapidly in recent years, energy policies do not address backup or cooling option requirements, and very few studies directly compare the diverse implications of these options. This is the first study to compare the annual capacity factor, levelized cost of energy (LCOE), water consumption, land use, and life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of PT with different backup options (minimal backup (MB), thermal energy storage (TES), and fossil fuel backup (FF)) and different cooling options (wet (WC) and dry (DC). Multicriteria decision analysis was used with five preference scenarios to identify the highest-scoring energy backup-cooling combination for each preference scenario. MB-WC had the highest score in the Economic and Climate Change-Economy scenarios, while FF-DC and FF-WC had the highest scores in the Equal and Availability scenarios, respectively. TES-DC had the highest score for the Environmental scenario. DC was ranked 1-3 in all preference scenarios. Direct comparisons between GHG emissions and LCOE and between GHG emissions and land use suggest a preference for TES if backup is require for PT plants to compete with baseload generators.

  12. The challenge of predicting problematic chemicals using a decision analysis tool: Triclosan as a case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perez, Angela L; Gauthier, Alison M; Ferracini, Tyler; Cowan, Dallas M; Kingsbury, Tony; Panko, Julie

    2017-01-01

    Manufacturers lack a reliable means for determining whether a chemical will be targeted for deselection from their supply chain. In this analysis, 3 methods for determining whether a specific chemical (triclosan) would meet the criteria necessary for being targeted for deselection are presented. The methods included a list-based approach, use of a commercially available chemical assessment software tool run in 2 modes, and a public interest evaluation. Our results indicated that triclosan was included on only 6 of the lists reviewed, none of which were particularly influential in chemical selection decisions. The results from the chemical assessment tool evaluations indicated that human and ecological toxicity for triclosan is low and received scores indicating that the chemical would be considered of low concern. However, triclosan's peak public interest tracked several years in advance of increased regulatory scrutiny of this chemical suggesting that public pressure may have been influential in deselection decisions. Key data gaps and toxicity endpoints not yet regulated such as endocrine disruption potential or phototoxicity, but that are important to estimate the trajectory for deselection of a chemical, are discussed. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2017;13:198-207. © 2016 SETAC.

  13. A decision analysis approach for optimal groundwater monitoring system design under uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. B. Yenigül

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Groundwater contamination is the degradation of the natural quality of groundwater as a result of human activity. Landfills are one of the most common human activities threatening the groundwater quality. The objective of the monitoring systems is to detect the contaminant plumes before reaching the regulatory compliance boundary in order to prevent the severe risk to both society and groundwater quality, and also to enable cost-effective counter measures in case of a failure. The detection monitoring problem typically has a multi-objective nature. A multi-objective decision model (called MONIDAM which links a classic decision analysis approach with a stochastic simulation model is applied to determine the optimal groundwater monitoring system given uncertainties due to the hydrogeological conditions and contaminant source characteristics. A Monte Carlo approach is used to incorporate uncertainties. Hydraulic conductivity and the leak location are the random inputs of the simulation model. The design objectives considered in the model are: (1 maximizing the detection probability, (2 minimizing the contaminated area and, (3 minimize the total cost of the monitoring system. The results show that the monitoring systems located close to the source are optimal except for the cases with very high unit installation and sampling cost and/or very cheap unit remediation cost.

  14. A Multi—Criteria Decision Making Procedured for the Analysis of an Energy System

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Ming-ShanZhu; Bu-XuanWang; 等

    1992-01-01

    In the course of improving and/or designing an energy system,either purely economic criteria,although the overriding criteria,or purely energy-based criteria,although the emphasized criteria,can not separately handle real-world situations in a satisfactory manner,The econmic effectiveness and the energy efficiency must be considered simultaneously to demonstrate the confilicting and non-commensurable characteristics of these multiple criteria.An iterative and interactive approach to formulating and solving non-linear multi-criteria decision making problems for the analysis of an energy system is proposed.It allows the decision maker(DM) to learn from the available information and dymamically change his mind.Criterion functioins can be treated as objective functions,as constraints of as something in between by the DM.After a series of iterations and interactive procedures,a preferred solution can be made among the non-inferior sets considering thermodymamic criteria and economic creteria simultaneously,a simple example for design of a hest exchanger is used to illustrate the procedure.

  15. Travel modal choice analysis for traffic corridors based on decision-theoretic approaches

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    郭伟; 张毅; 尤佳轩; 胡坚明; 裴欣

    2016-01-01

    The rapid development of multimodal transportation system prompts travellers to choose multiple transportation modes, such as private vehicles or taxi, transit (subways or buses), or park-and-ride combinations for urban trips. Traffic corridor is a major scenario that supports travellers to commute from suburban residential areas to central working areas. Studying their modal choice behaviour is receiving more and more interests. On one hand, it will guide the travellers to rationally choose their most economic and beneficial mode for urban trips. On the other hand, it will help traffic operators to make more appropriate policies to enhance the share of public transit in order to alleviate the traffic congestion and produce more economic and social benefits. To analyze the travel modal choice, a generalized cost model for three typical modes is first established to evaluate each different travel alternative. Then, random utility theory (RUT) and decision field theory (DFT) are introduced to describe the decision-making process how travellers make their mode choices. Further, some important factors that may influence the modal choice behaviour are discussed as well. To test the feasibility of the proposed model, a field test in Beijing was conducted to collect the real-time data and estimate the model parameters. The improvements in the test results and analysis show new advances in the development of travel mode choice on multimodal transportation networks.

  16. Decision Process Analysis on Project Priority Strategy: A Case Study of an ICT Design Firm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vincent F. Yu

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Project priority strategy is the benchmarking of a corporate operation management strategy and in particular is used by a projects-based research and development firm in the complex competence environment of the information and communication technology (ICT industry. This research takes the variables of external environments and internal resources into account for a firm’s market, technology, and finance assets in order to present a decision process on a project priority strategy. This empirical study also addresses the key factors of the interaction between business on a project development’s supply chain: clients, the examined firm, and suppliers. The findings indicate that a profit-driven project can dominate the firm’s strategic operations and management from the resource-based view and analytic hierarchy process technique perspectives. At the same time, the analysis results contribute significant values to project decision management, which is highly recommended for small-medium enterprises conducting product/project development, project portfolio management, and strategic business management.

  17. Use of multi-criteria decision analysis in public bidding processes: a case study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    André Andrade Longaray

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Institutions of Higher Education in Brazil (IFES play an important role in the country’s social and scientific development. Focused mainly on teaching, research and extension activities, the IFES are backed by support foundations aimed to the management of financial, human and material resources. Characterized as public bodies, the support foundations are governed by Law no 8.666/93 in what concerns the procurement of goods and services. Therefore, the present study is aimed to develop a model to assist the managers of such foundations in the selection of suppliers to participate in bidding processes that use invitation for bids. Therefore, we conducted a case study in one of the 55 foundations that support Brazilian federal universities. The intervention tool used was the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP. Firstly, we established the hierarchy of criteria for problem-solving. Then, a paired comparison was made between criteria for the same level. Subsequently, the consistency analysis of comparison matrices was verified. Finally, the relative priorities of each criterion were obtained and the objective function of the model was constructed. The model was tested through the assessment of the performance of three potential suppliers of IT equipment, and the result was legitimized by decision makers who found the instrument a valid tool to aid in making decisions on supplier selection for the foundation.

  18. Early Building Design: Informed decision-making by exploring multidimensional design space using sensitivity analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Østergård, Torben; Jensen, Rasmus Lund; Maagaard, Steffen

    2017-01-01

    This paper describes a novel approach to explore a multidimensional design space and guide multi-actor decision making in the design of sustainable buildings. The aim is to provide proactive and holistic guidance of the design team. We propose to perform exhaustive Monte Carlo simulations in an i...... to remedy unwanted output changes. The proposed methodology has been developed and tested through real building cases using a normative model to assess energy demand, thermal comfort, and daylight.......This paper describes a novel approach to explore a multidimensional design space and guide multi-actor decision making in the design of sustainable buildings. The aim is to provide proactive and holistic guidance of the design team. We propose to perform exhaustive Monte Carlo simulations...... in an iterative design approach that consists of two steps: 1) preparation by modeler, and 2) multi-collaborator meeting. In the preparation phase, the simulation modeler performs Morris sensitivity analysis to fixate insignificant model inputs and to identify non-linearity and interaction effects. Next...

  19. The preliminary study of autophagy induction of SA and MeSA by confocal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yun, Lijuan; Chen, Wenli

    2010-02-01

    Autophagy appears to be a highly conserved process from unicellular to multicellular eukaryotes which contributes to the equilibrium of intracelluar environment. While it would be harmful to the cells when it is excessive by inducing programmed cell death (PCD). It is a protein degradation process in which cells recycle cytoplasmic contents when subjected to environmental stress conditions or during certain stages of development. Previous studies have demonstrated autophagy can be induced during abiotic or biotic stresses. salicylic acid (SA) and methyl salicytic (MeSA) are endogenous signal molecules. We found SA and MeSA can induce autophagy in Arabidopsis thaliana respectively. While autophagy was not induced by SA or MeSA in tobacco suspension cells under the same concentration and period. The differences in stuctures or physiological states may contribute to the results.

  20. 78 FR 26771 - Mesa Wind Power Corporation; Supplemental Notice That Initial Market-Based Rate Filing Includes...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-05-08

    ... From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY Federal Energy Regulatory Commission Mesa Wind Power Corporation; Supplemental Notice That Initial Market-Based... above-referenced proceeding of Mesa Wind Power Corporation's application for market-based rate...

  1. 75 FR 63488 - Submission for OMB Review; Comment Request; Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) Event...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-15

    ... Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) Event Surveillance SUMMARY: Under the provisions of Section 3507(a)(1)(D... Collection: Title: Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) Event Surveillance. Type of Information... disease (CVD)-- that is, atherosclerosis and other forms of CVD that have not produced signs and...

  2. Exploration for uranium deposits in the Spring Creek Mesa area, Montrose County, Colorado

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roach, Carl Houston

    1954-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey explored the Spring Creek Mesa area from July 11, 1951, to August 14, 1953. During that period, 280 diamond-drill holes were completed for a total of 180,287 feet. Sedimentary rocks of Mesozoic age are exposed in and adjacent to the Spring Creek Mesa area. These rocks consist of, from oldest to youngest: the Upper Jurassic Morrison formation, the Lower Cretaceous Burro Canyon formation, and the Upper Cretaceous Dakota formation. The Morrison formation consists of two members in the Spring Creek Mesa area: the lower is the Salt Wash member and the upper is the Brusby Basin member. All of the large uranium-bearing deposits discovered by the Geological Survey drilling in the Spring Creek Mesa area are in a series of coalescing sandstone lenses in the uppermost part of the Salt Wash member of the Morrison formation. Most of the ore deposits are believed to be irregular tabular or lens-shaped masses and probably lie parallel to the bedding, although in detail, they may crosscut the bedding. Also, ore deposits that take the form of narrow elongate concretionary-like structures, locally called “rolls”, may be present in the Spring Creek Mesa area. The mineralized material consists mostly of sandstone which has been selectively impregnated and in part replaced by uranium and vanadium minerals. Also, rich concentrations of uranium and vanadium are commonly associated with thin mudstone seams, beds of mudstone pebbles, and carbonaceous material of various types. Two suites of ore minerals are present in the ore deposits - - an oxidized suite of secondary uranium and vanadium minerals and a relatively unoxidized suite of “primary” uranium and vanadium minerals. The following geologic criteria are useful as guides to ore in the Spring Creek Mesa area:

  3. Strategic Decision-Making by Deans in Academic Health Centers: A Framework Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keeney, Brianne

    2012-01-01

    This study examines strategic decision-making at the college level in relation to seven theoretical frames. Strategic decisions are those made by top executives, have wide-ranging influence throughout the organization, affect the long-term future of the organization, and are connected to the external environment. The seven decision-making frames…

  4. Egalitarianism and Achievement in the Involvement of Others in Consumer Decisions: A Functional Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Duane I.

    1980-01-01

    Studied how egalitaranism and success through individual achievement, were expressed in the involvement of others in consumer decisions. Results found egalitarians involved others in seeking more information. Individual achievement subjects delegated more decision responsibility for non-ego involving decisions. Suggests involvement of others could…

  5. Strategic Planning and Decision Analysis: Presentation of the COSIMA Software System

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    This paper presents a composite decision support system, COSIMA, programmed in MS Excel. COSIMA provides assistance to the decision maker as concerns complex decisions and strategic planning. The COSIMA software is designed as interconnected modules which make it possible to conduct Cost...

  6. Combination of material flow analysis and substance flow analysis: a powerful approach for decision support in waste management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stanisavljevic, Nemanja; Brunner, Paul H

    2014-08-01

    The novelty of this paper is the demonstration of the effectiveness of combining material flow analysis (MFA) with substance flow analysis (SFA) for decision making in waste management. Both MFA and SFA are based on the mass balance principle. While MFA alone has been applied often for analysing material flows quantitatively and hence to determine the capacities of waste treatment processes, SFA is more demanding but instrumental in evaluating the performance of a waste management system regarding the goals "resource conservation" and "environmental protection". SFA focuses on the transformations of wastes during waste treatment: valuable as well as hazardous substances and their transformations are followed through the entire waste management system. A substance-based approach is required because the economic and environmental properties of the products of waste management - recycling goods, residues and emissions - are primarily determined by the content of specific precious or harmful substances. To support the case that MFA and SFA should be combined, a case study of waste management scenarios is presented. For three scenarios, total material flows are quantified by MFA, and the mass flows of six indicator substances (C, N, Cl, Cd, Pb, Hg) are determined by SFA. The combined results are compared to the status quo in view of fulfilling the goals of waste management. They clearly point out specific differences between the chosen scenarios, demonstrating potentials for improvement and the value of the combination of MFA/SFA for decision making in waste management.

  7. Presentaci??n de la Mesa de debate sobre "aspectos fundamentales de las redes

    OpenAIRE

    L??pez Rodr??guez, Marta Sof??a

    2012-01-01

    Redes sociales: de la indignaci??n al cambio. Aspectos Fundamentales de las Redes. Presentaci??n de la Mesa de debate sobre "aspectos fundamentales de las redes" por Marta Sof??a L??pez Rodr??guez (Universidad de Le??n, filolog??a) que modera la mesa. Curso de verano: "Redes sociales: de la indignaci??n al cambio (aspecto ??ticos, pol??ticos y est??ticos)", MUSAC, 21-23 septiembre de 2012, organizado en cooperaci??n con la Universidad Polit??cnica de Munich (HM), BITrum y MyUniversity.

  8. Informe Mesa de Comunicaciones 11. Docencia y Evaluación: Reflexiones y Nuevas Propuestas

    OpenAIRE

    IRLES PARREÑO, RICARDO

    2014-01-01

    El Informe tiene como objetivo presentar, unificar y sintetizar las comunicaciones presentadas en la Mesa nº 11 de las XII Jornadas de Redes de Investigación en Docencia Universitaria celebradas en el curso académico 2013-2014 en la Universidad de Alicante y que han tenido por título genérico “El reconocimiento docente: Innovar e investigar con criterios de calidad” Asimismo pretendemos recoger el debate mantenido a la finalización de la mesa entre los asistentes y ponentes.

  9. Risk-based economic decision analysis of remediation options at a PCE-contaminated site

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lemming, Gitte; Friis-Hansen, P.; Bjerg, Poul Løgstrup

    2010-01-01

    by the remediation activities. More attention is increasingly being given to these secondary environmental impacts when evaluating remediation options. This paper presents a methodology for an integrated economic decision analysis which combines assessments of remediation costs, health risk costs and potential...... environmental costs. The health risks costs are associated with the residual contamination left at the site and its migration to groundwater used for drinking water. A probabilistic exposure model using first- and second-order reliability methods (FORM/SORM) is used to estimate the contaminant concentrations...... study based upon the developed methodology is presented in which the following remediation scenarios are analyzed and compared: (a) no action, (b) excavation and off-site treatment of soil, (c) soil vapor extraction and (d) thermally enhanced soil vapor extraction by electrical heating of the soil...

  10. Multicriteria Decision Analysis of Material Selection of High Energy Performance Residential Building

    Science.gov (United States)

    Čuláková, Monika; Vilčeková, Silvia; Katunská, Jana; Krídlová Burdová, Eva

    2013-11-01

    In world with limited amount of energy sources and with serious environmental pollution, interest in comparing the environmental embodied impacts of buildings using different structure systems and alternative building materials will be increased. This paper shows the significance of life cycle energy and carbon perspective and the material selection in reducing energy consumption and emissions production in the built environment. The study evaluates embodied environmental impacts of nearly zero energy residential structures. The environmental assessment uses framework of LCA within boundary: cradle to gate. Designed alternative scenarios of material compositions are also assessed in terms of energy effectiveness through selected thermal-physical parameters. This study uses multi-criteria decision analysis for making clearer selection between alternative scenarios. The results of MCDA show that alternative E from materials on nature plant base (wood, straw bales, massive wood panel) present possible way to sustainable perspective of nearly zero energy houses in Slovak republic

  11. Independent component analysis and decision trees for ECG holter recording de-noising.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jakub Kuzilek

    Full Text Available We have developed a method focusing on ECG signal de-noising using Independent component analysis (ICA. This approach combines JADE source separation and binary decision tree for identification and subsequent ECG noise removal. In order to to test the efficiency of this method comparison to standard filtering a wavelet- based de-noising method was used. Freely data available at Physionet medical data storage were evaluated. Evaluation criteria was root mean square error (RMSE between original ECG and filtered data contaminated with artificial noise. Proposed algorithm achieved comparable result in terms of standard noises (power line interference, base line wander, EMG, but noticeably significantly better results were achieved when uncommon noise (electrode cable movement artefact were compared.

  12. Predicting the decision to pursue mediation in civil disputes: a hierarchical classes analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reich, Warren A; Kressel, Kenneth; Scanlon, Kathleen M; Weiner, Gary A

    2007-11-01

    Clients (N = 185) involved in civil court cases completed the CPR Institute's Mediation Screen, which is designed to assist in making a decision about pursuing mediation. The authors modeled data using hierarchical classes analysis (HICLAS), a clustering algorithm that places clients into 1 set of classes and CPRMS items into another set of classes. HICLAS then links the sets of classes so that any class of clients can be identified in terms of the classes of items they endorsed. HICLAS-derived item classes reflected 2 underlying themes: (a) suitability of the dispute for a problem-solving process and (b) potential benefits of mediation. All clients who perceived that mediation would be beneficial also believed that the context of their conflict was favorable to mediation; however, not all clients who saw a favorable context believed they would benefit from mediation. The majority of clients who agreed to pursue mediation endorsed items reflecting both contextual suitability and perceived benefits of mediation.

  13. A multi-criteria decision analysis perspective on the health economic evaluation of medical interventions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Postmus, Douwe; Tervonen, Tommi; van Valkenhoef, Gert; Hillege, Hans L; Buskens, Erik

    2014-09-01

    A standard practice in health economic evaluation is to monetize health effects by assuming a certain societal willingness-to-pay per unit of health gain. Although the resulting net monetary benefit (NMB) is easy to compute, the use of a single willingness-to-pay threshold assumes expressibility of the health effects on a single non-monetary scale. To relax this assumption, this article proves that the NMB framework is a special case of the more general stochastic multi-criteria acceptability analysis (SMAA) method. Specifically, as SMAA does not restrict the number of criteria to two and also does not require the marginal rates of substitution to be constant, there are problem instances for which the use of this more general method may result in a better understanding of the trade-offs underlying the reimbursement decision-making problem. This is illustrated by applying both methods in a case study related to infertility treatment.

  14. Advances in intelligent analysis of medical data and decision support systems

    CERN Document Server

    Iantovics, Barna

    2013-01-01

    This volume is a result of the fruitful and vivid discussions during the MedDecSup'2012 International Workshop bringing together a relevant body of knowledge, and new developments in the increasingly important field of medical informatics. This carefully edited book presents new ideas aimed at the development of intelligent processing of various kinds of medical information and the perfection of the contemporary computer systems for medical decision support. The book presents advances of the medical information systems for intelligent archiving, processing, analysis and search-by-content which will improve the quality of the medical services for every patient and of the global healthcare system. The book combines in a synergistic way theoretical developments with the practicability of the approaches developed and presents the last developments and achievements in  medical informatics to a broad range of readers: engineers, mathematicians, physicians, and PhD students.

  15. Decision analysis and drug development portfolio management: uncovering the real options value of your projects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosati, Nicoletta

    2002-04-01

    Project selection and portfolio management are particularly challenging in the pharmaceutical industry due to the high risk - high stake nature of the drug development process. In the recent years, scholars and industry experts have agreed that traditional Net-Present-Value evaluation of the projects fails to capture the value of managerial flexibility, and encouraged adopting a real options approach to recover the missed value. In this paper, we take a closer look at the drug development process and at the indices currently used to rank projects. We discuss the economic value of information and of real options arising in drug development and present decision analysis as an ideal framework for the implementation of real options valuation.

  16. Dating of Las Mesas Copper Age walled enclosure (La Fuente, Spain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Odriozola, Carlos P.

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The site of Las Mesas is located in the west bank of the Guadajira river (La Fuente, Badajoz, Spain. It covers a half hectare and is enclosed by a stone wall. Previous assessments based on site surveys suggested a general chronological span from Late Neolithic period (ca. 3600-2900 BC through the Copper Age (3rd millennium BC. Excavations revealed a well-constructed wall with bastions and a domestic space at the centre of the site with three occupational phases. Several functional areas and a votive pit are ascribed to the second phase. A deer antler located in a re-cut ritual pit associated to the second phase was dated by AMS-14C. Samples from a living floor assigned to the second phase (SU-9/10 and the basement of a kiln associated with the first phase (SU-18 was dated by optically stimulated luminescence (OSL using the single aliquot regenerative dose (SAR protocol on 90-160 m quartz grains. Luminescence profiling analysis of 7 samples taken throughout the archaeological stratigraphy was used to assess variations in luminescence behaviour and relative age through the sequence, using infrared-, optically –and thermally– stimulated luminescence (IRSL, OSL, TSL on poly-mineral and etched samples. Luminescence dating and profiling indicates that the upper archaeological layer (SU-1B probably dates to the Late Bronze Age (ca. 1000 BC, but that the sediments in the remainder of this section accumulated during the late Neolithic-Copper Age: the site was most probably inhabited between 3300 and 2900 BC. There were gaps in occupation between the Late Neolithic-Cooper Age phases (I & II, and between the Late Neolithic-Cooper Age phases and Late Bronze Age phase (II & III, indicating that the site was abandoned and reoccupied twice. The AMS-14C date on deer antler of 4254 ± 45 BP (3010-2675 cal BC is consisten with the OSL results for phase II, indicating that the pit was excavated at the beginning of the second occupational phase. Combined OSL

  17. Analysis of decision fusion algorithms in handling uncertainties for integrated health monitoring systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zein-Sabatto, Saleh; Mikhail, Maged; Bodruzzaman, Mohammad; DeSimio, Martin; Derriso, Mark; Behbahani, Alireza

    2012-06-01

    It has been widely accepted that data fusion and information fusion methods can improve the accuracy and robustness of decision-making in structural health monitoring systems. It is arguably true nonetheless, that decision-level is equally beneficial when applied to integrated health monitoring systems. Several decisions at low-levels of abstraction may be produced by different decision-makers; however, decision-level fusion is required at the final stage of the process to provide accurate assessment about the health of the monitored system as a whole. An example of such integrated systems with complex decision-making scenarios is the integrated health monitoring of aircraft. Thorough understanding of the characteristics of the decision-fusion methodologies is a crucial step for successful implementation of such decision-fusion systems. In this paper, we have presented the major information fusion methodologies reported in the literature, i.e., probabilistic, evidential, and artificial intelligent based methods. The theoretical basis and characteristics of these methodologies are explained and their performances are analyzed. Second, candidate methods from the above fusion methodologies, i.e., Bayesian, Dempster-Shafer, and fuzzy logic algorithms are selected and their applications are extended to decisions fusion. Finally, fusion algorithms are developed based on the selected fusion methods and their performance are tested on decisions generated from synthetic data and from experimental data. Also in this paper, a modeling methodology, i.e. cloud model, for generating synthetic decisions is presented and used. Using the cloud model, both types of uncertainties; randomness and fuzziness, involved in real decision-making are modeled. Synthetic decisions are generated with an unbiased process and varying interaction complexities among decisions to provide for fair performance comparison of the selected decision-fusion algorithms. For verification purposes

  18. Analysis of the impact of the level of knowledge on the decision to vaccinate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marta Makara-Studzińska

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Introduction : Infectious diseases are still a significant medical and social problem in the contemporary world. The most effective and at the same time the least expensive way to become protected against infectious diseases is vaccinations. Appropriate education of the society referring to the prevention of infectious diseases such as measles, diphtheria, or pertussis can contribute to changing the attitudes of many parents to mandatory and recommended vaccinations. Aim of the research: The analysis of the impact of the level of knowledge on making decisions about administering preventive vaccinations. Material and methods : The study included 370 participants (308 women and 62 men. They were students of Lublin universities and young parents living in the Lublin voivodeship. The research tool was an author-made questionnaire consisting of 20 closed questions. For the statistical analysis of research results the methods of descriptive statistics, the χc2 test, and Cramer’s V correlation coefficient were used. Results : As many as 98% of the respondents exhibiting a higher level of knowledge declared future regular vaccinations of their children in accordance with the official recommendations. Among people with a low level of knowledge, only 45% declared such regularity in their children’s vaccination. As many as 62% of the respondents who lacked knowledge on vaccinations failed to have voluntary vaccinations administered. In comparison, among those with high level of knowledge, 50% never had recommended vaccinations administered. Conclusions : The level of knowledge has a significant impact on the decisions on administering preventive vaccinations in the studied population. Respondents who had a higher level of knowledge more frequently declared administering vaccinations regularly, both to themselves and their children.

  19. Propagating Water Quality Analysis Uncertainty Into Resource Management Decisions Through Probabilistic Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gronewold, A. D.; Wolpert, R. L.; Reckhow, K. H.

    2007-12-01

    Most probable number (MPN) and colony-forming-unit (CFU) are two estimates of fecal coliform bacteria concentration commonly used as measures of water quality in United States shellfish harvesting waters. The MPN is the maximum likelihood estimate (or MLE) of the true fecal coliform concentration based on counts of non-sterile tubes in serial dilution of a sample aliquot, indicating bacterial metabolic activity. The CFU is the MLE of the true fecal coliform concentration based on the number of bacteria colonies emerging on a growth plate after inoculation from a sample aliquot. Each estimating procedure has intrinsic variability and is subject to additional uncertainty arising from minor variations in experimental protocol. Several versions of each procedure (using different sized aliquots or different numbers of tubes, for example) are in common use, each with its own levels of probabilistic and experimental error and uncertainty. It has been observed empirically that the MPN procedure is more variable than the CFU procedure, and that MPN estimates are somewhat higher on average than CFU estimates, on split samples from the same water bodies. We construct a probabilistic model that provides a clear theoretical explanation for the observed variability in, and discrepancy between, MPN and CFU measurements. We then explore how this variability and uncertainty might propagate into shellfish harvesting area management decisions through a two-phased modeling strategy. First, we apply our probabilistic model in a simulation-based analysis of future water quality standard violation frequencies under alternative land use scenarios, such as those evaluated under guidelines of the total maximum daily load (TMDL) program. Second, we apply our model to water quality data from shellfish harvesting areas which at present are closed (either conditionally or permanently) to shellfishing, to determine if alternative laboratory analysis procedures might have led to different

  20. Decision tree analysis of factors influencing rainfall-related building damage

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. H. Spekkers

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Flood damage prediction models are essential building blocks in flood risk assessments. Little research has been dedicated so far to damage of small-scale urban floods caused by heavy rainfall, while there is a need for reliable damage models for this flood type among insurers and water authorities. The aim of this paper is to investigate a wide range of damage-influencing factors and their relationships with rainfall-related damage, using decision tree analysis. For this, district-aggregated claim data from private property insurance companies in the Netherlands were analysed, for the period of 1998–2011. The databases include claims of water-related damage, for example, damages related to rainwater intrusion through roofs and pluvial flood water entering buildings at ground floor. Response variables being modelled are average claim size and claim frequency, per district per day. The set of predictors include rainfall-related variables derived from weather radar images, topographic variables from a digital terrain model, building-related variables and socioeconomic indicators of households. Analyses were made separately for property and content damage claim data. Results of decision tree analysis show that claim frequency is most strongly associated with maximum hourly rainfall intensity, followed by real estate value, ground floor area, household income, season (property data only, buildings age (property data only, ownership structure (content data only and fraction of low-rise buildings (content data only. It was not possible to develop statistically acceptable trees for average claim size, which suggest that variability in average claim size is related to explanatory variables that cannot be defined at the district scale. Cross-validation results show that decision trees were able to predict 22–26% of variance in claim frequency, which is considerably better compared to results from global multiple regression models (11–18% of

  1. Bayesian Information-Gap Decision Analysis Applied to a CO2 Leakage Problem

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Malley, D.; Vesselinov, V. V.

    2014-12-01

    We describe a decision analysis in the presence of uncertainty that combines a non-probabilistic approach (information-gap decision theory) with a probabilistic approach (Bayes' theorem). Bayes' theorem is one of the most popular techniques for probabilistic uncertainty quantification (UQ). It is effective in many situations, because it updates our understanding of the uncertainties by conditioning on real data using a mathematically rigorous technique. However, the application of Bayes' theorem in science and engineering is not always rigorous. There are two reasons for this: (1) We can enumerate the possible outcomes of dice-rolling, but not the possible outcomes of real-world contamination remediation; (2) We can precisely determine conditional probabilities for coin-tossing, but substantial uncertainty surrounds the conditional probabilities for real-world contamination remediation. Of course, Bayes' theorem is rigorously applicable beyond dice-rolling and coin-tossing, but even in cases that are constructed to be simple with ostensibly good probabilistic models, applying Bayes' theorem to the real world may not work as well as one might expect. Bayes' theorem is rigorously applicable only if all possible events can be described, and their conditional probabilities can be derived rigorously. Outside of this domain, it may still be useful, but its use lacks at least some rigor. The information-gap approach allows us to circumvent some of the highlighted shortcomings of Bayes' theorem. In particular, it provides a way to account for possibilities beyond those described by our models, and a way to deal with uncertainty in the conditional distribution that forms the core of Bayesian analysis. We have developed a three-tiered technique enables one to make scientifically defensible decisions in the face of severe uncertainty such as is found in many geologic problems. To demonstrate the applicability, we apply the technique to a CO2 leakage problem. The goal is to

  2. Decision tree analysis of factors influencing rainfall-related building damage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spekkers, M. H.; Kok, M.; Clemens, F. H. L. R.; ten Veldhuis, J. A. E.

    2014-04-01

    Flood damage prediction models are essential building blocks in flood risk assessments. Little research has been dedicated so far to damage of small-scale urban floods caused by heavy rainfall, while there is a need for reliable damage models for this flood type among insurers and water authorities. The aim of this paper is to investigate a wide range of damage-influencing factors and their relationships with rainfall-related damage, using decision tree analysis. For this, district-aggregated claim data from private property insurance companies in the Netherlands were analysed, for the period of 1998-2011. The databases include claims of water-related damage, for example, damages related to rainwater intrusion through roofs and pluvial flood water entering buildings at ground floor. Response variables being modelled are average claim size and claim frequency, per district per day. The set of predictors include rainfall-related variables derived from weather radar images, topographic variables from a digital terrain model, building-related variables and socioeconomic indicators of households. Analyses were made separately for property and content damage claim data. Results of decision tree analysis show that claim frequency is most strongly associated with maximum hourly rainfall intensity, followed by real estate value, ground floor area, household income, season (property data only), buildings age (property data only), ownership structure (content data only) and fraction of low-rise buildings (content data only). It was not possible to develop statistically acceptable trees for average claim size, which suggest that variability in average claim size is related to explanatory variables that cannot be defined at the district scale. Cross-validation results show that decision trees were able to predict 22-26% of variance in claim frequency, which is considerably better compared to results from global multiple regression models (11-18% of variance explained). Still, a

  3. Decision-tree analysis of factors influencing rainfall-related building structure and content damage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spekkers, M. H.; Kok, M.; Clemens, F. H. L. R.; ten Veldhuis, J. A. E.

    2014-09-01

    Flood-damage prediction models are essential building blocks in flood risk assessments. So far, little research has been dedicated to damage from small-scale urban floods caused by heavy rainfall, while there is a need for reliable damage models for this flood type among insurers and water authorities. The aim of this paper is to investigate a wide range of damage-influencing factors and their relationships with rainfall-related damage, using decision-tree analysis. For this, district-aggregated claim data from private property insurance companies in the Netherlands were analysed, for the period 1998-2011. The databases include claims of water-related damage (for example, damages related to rainwater intrusion through roofs and pluvial flood water entering buildings at ground floor). Response variables being modelled are average claim size and claim frequency, per district, per day. The set of predictors include rainfall-related variables derived from weather radar images, topographic variables from a digital terrain model, building-related variables and socioeconomic indicators of households. Analyses were made separately for property and content damage claim data. Results of decision-tree analysis show that claim frequency is most strongly associated with maximum hourly rainfall intensity, followed by real estate value, ground floor area, household income, season (property data only), buildings age (property data only), a fraction of homeowners (content data only), a and fraction of low-rise buildings (content data only). It was not possible to develop statistically acceptable trees for average claim size. It is recommended to investigate explanations for the failure to derive models. These require the inclusion of other explanatory factors that were not used in the present study, an investigation of the variability in average claim size at different spatial scales, and the collection of more detailed insurance data that allows one to distinguish between the

  4. Using social network analysis to examine the decision-making process on new vaccine introduction in Nigeria.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wonodi, C B; Privor-Dumm, L; Aina, M; Pate, A M; Reis, R; Gadhoke, P; Levine, O S

    2012-05-01

    The decision-making process to introduce new vaccines into national immunization programmes is often complex, involving many stakeholders who provide technical information, mobilize finance, implement programmes and garner political support. Stakeholders may have different levels of interest, knowledge and motivations to introduce new vaccines. Lack of consensus on the priority, public health value or feasibility of adding a new vaccine can delay policy decisions. Efforts to support country-level decision-making have largely focused on establishing global policies and equipping policy makers with the information to support decision-making on new vaccine introduction (NVI). Less attention has been given to understanding the interactions of policy actors and how the distribution of influence affects the policy process and decision-making. Social network analysis (SNA) is a social science technique concerned with explaining social phenomena using the structural and relational features of the network of actors involved. This approach can be used to identify how information is exchanged and who is included or excluded from the process. For this SNA of vaccine decision-making in Nigeria, we interviewed federal and state-level government officials, officers of bilateral and multilateral partner organizations, and other stakeholders such as health providers and the media. Using data culled from those interviews, we performed an SNA in order to map formal and informal relationships and the distribution of influence among vaccine decision-makers, as well as to explore linkages and pathways to stakeholders who can influence critical decisions in the policy process. Our findings indicate a relatively robust engagement of key stakeholders in Nigeria. We hypothesized that economic stakeholders and implementers would be important to ensure sustainable financing and strengthen programme implementation, but some economic and implementation stakeholders did not appear centrally on

  5. Optimization and analysis of decision trees and rules: Dynamic programming approach

    KAUST Repository

    Alkhalid, Abdulaziz

    2013-08-01

    This paper is devoted to the consideration of software system Dagger created in KAUST. This system is based on extensions of dynamic programming. It allows sequential optimization of decision trees and rules relative to different cost functions, derivation of relationships between two cost functions (in particular, between number of misclassifications and depth of decision trees), and between cost and uncertainty of decision trees. We describe features of Dagger and consider examples of this systems work on decision tables from UCI Machine Learning Repository. We also use Dagger to compare 16 different greedy algorithms for decision tree construction. © 2013 Taylor and Francis Group, LLC.

  6. The Colorado MESA Program and CU-LASP: A Model for After School Program/Research Institution Collaboratives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nelson, G.; Cobabe-Ammann, E.

    2004-12-01

    Colorado MESA is an after school program operating throughout the state with a long track record in promoting science, math and engineering education to largely underserved K-12 student populations. Currently, 81 percent of MESA students are from groups underrepresented in the math/science careers, and 85 percent of MESA students come from low- and moderate-income families. Through a combination of weekly student programs, field trips to universities and industry partners, family orientations, individual academic counseling and required curriculum, Colorado MESA offers an opportunity for students to explore STEM subjects and careers that they might not otherwise have access to - with tangible results. In the Colorado MESA Class of 2003, 97 percent of students planned on entering college this fall, with 86 percent indicating that they will enroll in math/science-based majors. In the last year, the University of Colorado's Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics, a large space and earth sciences institute, has relied on the Colorado MESA program as its primary K-12 partner in Education and Public Outreach. LASP incorporates MESA into its proposal writing opportunities, from E/PO additions to individual research proposals to mission-level educational programs. In addition to funding opportunities, LASP provides scientists and engineers in a variety of contexts and content areas, while MESA works to incorporate those resources into their after school programs. The interface between the after school programs and the research institution requires ongoing communication and coordination in order to evaluate and fine-tune curriculum and activities based on feedback from MESA advisors and teachers. Currently, the MESA/LASP partnership has funded programs in astrobiology, planetary sciences and engineering.

  7. ASPECTS OF FINANCIAL EQUILIBRIUM ANALYSIS AND ITS IMPLICATIONS IN MANAGEMENT DECISIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniela Cristina Solomon

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Considering the impact of risk factors in the economic environment, this study provides to all users of financial information a possible pattern for analyzing the financial equilibrium, designed to clarify the importance of dynamic analysis of indicators characterizing the financial equilibrium of an enterprise, expressed on absolute values, especially for managers in decision-making on future work, aimed at achieving pre-established strategic and tactical objectives. Practice has shown that the management cannot be based on intuition and routine but on a scientific analysis, on a thorough knowledge of the existing situation, as well as on the identification of vulnerabilities and opportunities for development. In order to promote a rational policy concerning business growth and achieving economic and financial satisfactory results, the company’s management grants a special importance to the financial diagnosis. The support of financial analysis is the balance sheet that allows developing financial diagnosis on the financial equilibrium conditions and creditworthiness, objectives that allow the evaluation of the independence of the firm and its market value.

  8. Non-cognate translation priming in masked priming lexical decision experiments: A meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wen, Yun; van Heuven, Walter J B

    2016-09-09

    The masked translation priming paradigm has been widely used in the last 25 years to investigate word processing in bilinguals. Motivated by studies reporting mixed findings, in particular for second language (L2) to first language (L1) translation priming, we conducted, for the first time in the literature, a meta-analysis of 64 masked priming lexical decision experiments across 24 studies to assess the effect sizes of L1-L2 and L2-L1 non-cognate translation priming effects in bilinguals. Our meta-analysis also investigated the influence of potential moderators of translation priming effects. The results provided clear evidence of significant translation priming effects for both directions, with L1-L2 translation priming significantly larger than L2-L1 translation priming (i.e., effect size of 0.86 vs. 0.31). The analyses also revealed that L1-L2 translation effect sizes were moderated by the interval between prime and target (ISI), whereas L2-L1 translation effect sizes were modulated by the number of items per cell. Theoretical and methodological implications of this meta-analysis are discussed and recommendations for future studies are provided.

  9. The Application of Climate Risk Informed Decision Analysis to the Ioland Water Treatment Plant in Lusaka, Zambia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kucharski, John; Tkach, Mark; Olszewski, Jennifer; Chaudhry, Rabia; Mendoza, Guillermo

    2016-04-01

    This presentation demonstrates the application of Climate Risk Informed Decision Analysis (CRIDA) at Zambia's principal water treatment facility, The Iolanda Water Treatment Plant. The water treatment plant is prone to unacceptable failures during periods of low hydropower production at the Kafue Gorge Dam Hydroelectric Power Plant. The case study explores approaches of increasing the water treatment plant's ability to deliver acceptable levels of service under the range of current and potential future climate states. The objective of the study is to investigate alternative investments to build system resilience that might have been informed by the CRIDA process, and to evaluate the extra resource requirements by a bilateral donor agency to implement the CRIDA process. The case study begins with an assessment of the water treatment plant's vulnerability to climate change. It does so by following general principals described in "Confronting Climate Uncertainty in Water Resource Planning and Project Design: the Decision Tree Framework". By utilizing relatively simple bootstrapping methods a range of possible future climate states is generated while avoiding the use of more complex and costly downscaling methodologies; that are beyond the budget and technical capacity of many teams. The resulting climate vulnerabilities and uncertainty in the climate states that produce them are analyzed as part of a "Level of Concern" analysis. CRIDA principals are then applied to this Level of Concern analysis in order to arrive at a set of actionable water management decisions. The principal goals of water resource management is to transform variable, uncertain hydrology into dependable services (e.g. water supply, flood risk reduction, ecosystem benefits, hydropower production, etc…). Traditional approaches to climate adaptation require the generation of predicted future climate states but do little guide decision makers how this information should impact decision making. In

  10. Rapid Prototyping of Hyperspectral Image Analysis Algorithms for Improved Invasive Species Decision Support Tools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bruce, L. M.; Ball, J. E.; Evangilista, P.; Stohlgren, T. J.

    2006-12-01

    Nonnative invasive species adversely impact ecosystems, causing loss of native plant diversity, species extinction, and impairment of wildlife habitats. As a result, over the past decade federal and state agencies and nongovernmental organizations have begun to work more closely together to address the management of invasive species. In 2005, approximately 500M dollars was budgeted by U.S. Federal Agencies for the management of invasive species. Despite extensive expenditures, most of the methods used to detect and quantify the distribution of these invaders are ad hoc, at best. Likewise, decisions on the type of management techniques to be used or evaluation of the success of these methods are typically non-systematic. More efficient methods to detect or predict the occurrence of these species, as well as the incorporation of this knowledge into decision support systems, are greatly needed. In this project, rapid prototyping capabilities (RPC) are utilized for an invasive species application. More precisely, our recently developed analysis techniques for hyperspectral imagery are being prototyped for inclusion in the national Invasive Species Forecasting System (ISFS). The current ecological forecasting tools in ISFS will be compared to our hyperspectral-based invasives prediction algorithms to determine if/how the newer algorithms enhance the performance of ISFS. The PIs have researched the use of remotely sensed multispectral and hyperspectral reflectance data for the detection of invasive vegetative species. As a result, the PI has designed, implemented, and benchmarked various target detection systems that utilize remotely sensed data. These systems have been designed to make decisions based on a variety of remotely sensed data, including high spectral/spatial resolution hyperspectral signatures (1000's of spectral bands, such as those measured using ASD handheld devices), moderate spectral/spatial resolution hyperspectral images (100's of spectral bands, such

  11. RiskChanges Spatial Decision Support system for the analysis of changing multi-hazard risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Westen, Cees; Zhang, Kaixi; Bakker, Wim; Andrejchenko, Vera; Berlin, Julian; Olyazadeh, Roya; Cristal, Irina

    2015-04-01

    Within the framework of the EU FP7 Marie Curie Project CHANGES and the EU FP7 Copernicus project INCREO a spatial decision support system was developed with the aim to analyse the effect of risk reduction planning alternatives on reducing the risk now and in the future, and support decision makers in selecting the best alternatives. Central to the SDSS are the stakeholders. The envisaged users of the system are organizations involved in planning of risk reduction measures, and that have staff capable of visualizing and analyzing spatial data at a municipal scale. The SDSS should be able to function in different countries with different legal frameworks and with organizations with different mandates. These could be subdivided into Civil protection organization with the mandate to design disaster response plans, Expert organizations with the mandate to design structural risk reduction measures (e.g. dams, dikes, check-dams etc), and planning organizations with the mandate to make land development plans. The SDSS can be used in different ways: analyzing the current level of risk, analyzing the best alternatives for risk reduction, the evaluation of the consequences of possible future scenarios to the risk levels, and the evaluation how different risk reduction alternatives will lead to risk reduction under different future scenarios. The SDSS is developed based on open source software and following open standards, for code as well as for data formats and service interfaces. Code development was based upon open source software as well. The architecture of the system is modular. The various parts of the system are loosely coupled, extensible, using standards for interoperability, flexible and web-based. The Spatial Decision Support System is composed of a number of integrated components. The Risk Assessment component allows to carry out spatial risk analysis, with different degrees of complexity, ranging from simple exposure (overlay of hazard and assets maps) to

  12. Assessing Interventions to Manage West Nile Virus Using Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis with Risk Scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hongoh, Valerie; Campagna, Céline; Panic, Mirna; Samuel, Onil; Gosselin, Pierre; Waaub, Jean-Philippe; Ravel, André; Samoura, Karim; Michel, Pascal

    2016-01-01

    The recent emergence of West Nile virus (WNV) in North America highlights vulnerability to climate sensitive diseases and stresses the importance of preventive efforts to reduce their public health impact. Effective prevention involves reducing environmental risk of exposure and increasing adoption of preventive behaviours, both of which depend on knowledge and acceptance of such measures. When making operational decisions about disease prevention and control, public health must take into account a wide range of operational, environmental, social and economic considerations in addition to intervention effectiveness. The current study aimed to identify, assess and rank possible risk reduction measures taking into account a broad set of criteria and perspectives applicable to the management of WNV in Quebec under increasing transmission risk scenarios, some of which may be related to ongoing warming in higher-latitude regions. A participatory approach was used to collect information on categories of concern to relevant stakeholders with respect to WNV prevention and control. Multi-criteria decision analysis was applied to examine stakeholder perspectives and their effect on strategy rankings under increasing transmission risk scenarios. Twenty-three preventive interventions were retained for evaluation using eighteen criteria identified by stakeholders. Combined evaluations revealed that, at an individual-level, inspecting window screen integrity, wearing light colored, long clothing, eliminating peridomestic larval sites and reducing outdoor activities at peak times were top interventions under six WNV transmission scenarios. At a regional-level, the use of larvicides was a preferred strategy in five out of six scenarios, while use of adulticides and dissemination of sterile male mosquitoes were found to be among the least favoured interventions in almost all scenarios. Our findings suggest that continued public health efforts aimed at reinforcing individual

  13. Four Common Simplifications of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis do not hold for River Rehabilitation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simone D Langhans

    Full Text Available River rehabilitation aims at alleviating negative effects of human impacts such as loss of biodiversity and reduction of ecosystem services. Such interventions entail difficult trade-offs between different ecological and often socio-economic objectives. Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA is a very suitable approach that helps assessing the current ecological state and prioritizing river rehabilitation measures in a standardized way, based on stakeholder or expert preferences. Applications of MCDA in river rehabilitation projects are often simplified, i.e. using a limited number of objectives and indicators, assuming linear value functions, aggregating individual indicator assessments additively, and/or assuming risk neutrality of experts. Here, we demonstrate an implementation of MCDA expert preference assessments to river rehabilitation and provide ample material for other applications. To test whether the above simplifications reflect common expert opinion, we carried out very detailed interviews with five river ecologists and a hydraulic engineer. We defined essential objectives and measurable quality indicators (attributes, elicited the experts´ preferences for objectives on a standardized scale (value functions and their risk attitude, and identified suitable aggregation methods. The experts recommended an extensive objectives hierarchy including between 54 and 93 essential objectives and between 37 to 61 essential attributes. For 81% of these, they defined non-linear value functions and in 76% recommended multiplicative aggregation. The experts were risk averse or risk prone (but never risk neutral, depending on the current ecological state of the river, and the experts´ personal importance of objectives. We conclude that the four commonly applied simplifications clearly do not reflect the opinion of river rehabilitation experts. The optimal level of model complexity, however, remains highly case-study specific depending on data and

  14. Four Common Simplifications of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis do not hold for River Rehabilitation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Langhans, Simone D; Lienert, Judit

    2016-01-01

    River rehabilitation aims at alleviating negative effects of human impacts such as loss of biodiversity and reduction of ecosystem services. Such interventions entail difficult trade-offs between different ecological and often socio-economic objectives. Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) is a very suitable approach that helps assessing the current ecological state and prioritizing river rehabilitation measures in a standardized way, based on stakeholder or expert preferences. Applications of MCDA in river rehabilitation projects are often simplified, i.e. using a limited number of objectives and indicators, assuming linear value functions, aggregating individual indicator assessments additively, and/or assuming risk neutrality of experts. Here, we demonstrate an implementation of MCDA expert preference assessments to river rehabilitation and provide ample material for other applications. To test whether the above simplifications reflect common expert opinion, we carried out very detailed interviews with five river ecologists and a hydraulic engineer. We defined essential objectives and measurable quality indicators (attributes), elicited the experts´ preferences for objectives on a standardized scale (value functions) and their risk attitude, and identified suitable aggregation methods. The experts recommended an extensive objectives hierarchy including between 54 and 93 essential objectives and between 37 to 61 essential attributes. For 81% of these, they defined non-linear value functions and in 76% recommended multiplicative aggregation. The experts were risk averse or risk prone (but never risk neutral), depending on the current ecological state of the river, and the experts´ personal importance of objectives. We conclude that the four commonly applied simplifications clearly do not reflect the opinion of river rehabilitation experts. The optimal level of model complexity, however, remains highly case-study specific depending on data and resource

  15. Analysis and decision document in support of acquisition of steam supply for the Hanford 200 Area

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brown, D.R.; Daellenbach, K.K.; Hendrickson, P.L.; Kavanaugh, D.C.; Reilly, R.W.; Shankle, D.L.; Smith, S.A.; Weakley, S.A.; Williams, T.A. [Pacific Northwest Lab., Richland, WA (United States); Grant, T.F. [Battelle Human Affairs Research Center, Seattle, WA (United States)

    1992-02-01

    The US Department of Energy (DOE) is now evaluating its facility requirements in support of its cleanup mission at Hanford. One of the early findings is that the 200-Area steam plants, constructed in 1943, will not meet future space heating and process needs. Because the 200 Area will serve as the primary area for waste treatment and long-term storage, a reliable steam supply is a critical element of Hanford operations. This Analysis and Decision Document (ADD) is a preliminary review of the steam supply options available to the DOE. The ADD contains a comprehensive evaluation of the two major acquisition options: line-term versus privatization. It addresses the life-cycle costs associated with each alternative, as well as factors such as contracting requirements and the impact of market, safety, security, and regulatory issues. Specifically, this ADD documents current and future steam requirements for the 200 Area, describes alternatives available to DOE for meeting these requirements, and compares the alternatives across a number of decision criteria, including life-cycle cost. DOE has currently limited the ADD evaluation alternatives to replacing central steam plants rather than expanding the study to include alternative heat sources, such as a distributed network of boilers or heat pumps. Thirteen project alternatives were analyzed in the ADD. One of the alternatives was the rehabilitation of the existing 200-East coal-fired facility. The other twelve alternatives are combinations of (1) coal- or gas-fueled plants, (2) steam-only or cogeneration facilities, (3) primary or secondary cogeneration of electricity, and (4) public or private ownership.

  16. Multi-objective Programming and Social Welfare Analysis of Rural-urban Land Conversion Decision-making

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Song Min; Zhang Anlu

    2008-01-01

    Rural-urban land conversion is an inevitable phenomenon in urbanization and industrialization. And the decision-making issue about this conversion is multi-objective because the social decision maker (the whole of central government and local authority) has to integrate the requirements of different interest groups (rural collective economic organizations, peasants, urban land users and the ones affected indirectly) and harmonize the sub-objects (economic, social and ecological outcomes) of this land allocation process. This paper established a multi-objective programming model for rural-urban land conversion decision-making and made some social welfare analysis correspondingly. Result shows that the general object of rural-urban land conversion decision-making is to reach the optimal level of social welfare in a certain state of resources allocation, while the preference of social decision makers and the value judgment of interest groups are two crucial factors which determine the realization of the rural-urban land conversion decision-making objects.

  17. Multi-criteria multi-stakeholder decision analysis using a fuzzy-stochastic approach for hydrosystem management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Subagadis, Y. H.; Schütze, N.; Grundmann, J.

    2014-09-01

    The conventional methods used to solve multi-criteria multi-stakeholder problems are less strongly formulated, as they normally incorporate only homogeneous information at a time and suggest aggregating objectives of different decision-makers avoiding water-society interactions. In this contribution, Multi-Criteria Group Decision Analysis (MCGDA) using a fuzzy-stochastic approach has been proposed to rank a set of alternatives in water management decisions incorporating heterogeneous information under uncertainty. The decision making framework takes hydrologically, environmentally, and socio-economically motivated conflicting objectives into consideration. The criteria related to the performance of the physical system are optimized using multi-criteria simulation-based optimization, and fuzzy linguistic quantifiers have been used to evaluate subjective criteria and to assess stakeholders' degree of optimism. The proposed methodology is applied to find effective and robust intervention strategies for the management of a coastal hydrosystem affected by saltwater intrusion due to excessive groundwater extraction for irrigated agriculture and municipal use. Preliminary results show that the MCGDA based on a fuzzy-stochastic approach gives useful support for robust decision-making and is sensitive to the decision makers' degree of optimism.

  18. Assessing the value of healthcare interventions using multi-criteria decision analysis: a review of the literature.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marsh, Kevin; Lanitis, Tereza; Neasham, David; Orfanos, Panagiotis; Caro, Jaime

    2014-04-01

    The objective of this study is to support those undertaking a multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) by reviewing the approaches adopted in healthcare MCDAs to date, how these varied with the objective of the study, and the lessons learned from this experience. Searches of EMBASE and MEDLINE identified 40 studies that provided 41 examples of MCDA in healthcare. Data were extracted on the objective of the study, methods employed, and decision makers' and study authors' reflections on the advantages and disadvantages of the methods. The recent interest in MCDA in healthcare is mirrored in an increase in the application of MCDA to evaluate healthcare interventions. Of the studies identified, the first was published in 1990, but more than half were published since 2011. They were undertaken in 18 different countries, and were designed to support investment (coverage and reimbursement), authorization, prescription, and research funding allocation decisions. Many intervention types were assessed: pharmaceuticals, public health interventions, screening, surgical interventions, and devices. Most used the value measurement approach and scored performance using predefined scales. Beyond these similarities, a diversity of different approaches were adopted, with only limited correspondence between the approach and the type of decision or product. Decision makers consulted as part of these studies, as well as the authors of the studies are positive about the potential of MCDA to improve decision making. Further work is required, however, to develop guidance for those undertaking MCDA.

  19. The development of a multi-criteria decision analysis aid to help with contraceptive choices: My Contraception Tool.

    Science.gov (United States)

    French, Rebecca S; Cowan, Frances M; Wellings, Kaye; Dowie, Jack

    2014-04-01

    My Contraception Tool (MCT) applies the principles of multi-criteria decision analysis to the choice of contraceptive method. Its purpose is to make the decision-making process transparent to the user and to suggest a method to them based on their own preferences. The contraceptive option that emerges as optimal from the analysis takes account of the probability of a range of outcomes and the relative weight ascribed to them by the user. The development of MCT was a collaborative project between London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Brook, FPA and Maldaba Ltd. MCT is available online via the Brook and FPA websites. In this article we describe MCT's development and how it works. Further work is needed to assess the impact it has on decision quality and contraceptive behaviour.

  20. Multi-criteria decision analysis for bioenergy in the Centre Region of Portugal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Esteves, T. C. J.; Cabral, P.; Ferreira, A. J. D.; Teixeira, J. C.

    2012-04-01

    With the consumption of fossil fuels, the resources essential to Man's survival are being rapidly contaminated. A sustainable future may be achieved by the use of renewable energies, allowing countries without non-renewable energy resources to guarantee energetic sovereignty. Using bioenergy may mean a steep reduction and/or elimination of the external dependency, enhancing the countries' capital and potentially reducing of the negative effects that outcome from the use of fossil fuels, such as loss of biodiversity, air, water, and soil pollution, … This work's main focus is to increase bioenergy use in the centre region of Portugal by allying R&D to facilitate determination of bioenergy availability and distribution throughout the study area.This analysis is essential, given that nowadays this knowledge is still very limited in the study area. Geographic Information Systems (GIS) was the main tool used to asses this study, due to its unseeingly ability to integrate various types of information (such as alphanumerical, statistical, geographical, …) and various sources of biomass (forest, agricultural, husbandry, municipal and industrial residues, shrublands, used vegetable oil and energy crops) to determine the bioenergy potential of the study area, as well as their spatial distribution. By allying GIS with multi-criteria decision analysis, the initial table-like information of difficult comprehension is transformed into tangible and easy to read results: both intermediate and final results of the created models will facilitate the decision making process. General results show that the major contributors for the bioenergy potential in the Centre Region of Portugal are forest residues, which are mostly located in the inner region of the study area. However, a more detailed analysis should be made to analyze the viability to use energy crops. As a main conclusion, we can say that, although this region may not use only this type of energy to be completely

  1. Relationship of thoracic aortic calcium to coronary calcium and its progression (from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis [MESA]).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rivera, Juan J; Nasir, Khurram; Katz, Ronit; Takasu, Junichiro; Allison, Matthew; Wong, Nathan D; Barr, R Graham; Carr, Jeffrey J; Blumenthal, Roger S; Budoff, Matthew J

    2009-06-01

    Thoracic aortic calcium (TAC) has been associated with a higher prevalence of coronary arterial calcium (CAC). The purpose of this study was to assess the relations between TAC and incident CAC and CAC progression in a cohort from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA). MESA is a prospective cohort study of 6,814 participants free of clinical cardiovascular disease at entry who underwent noncontrast cardiac computed tomographic scanning at baseline examination and at a 2-year follow-up assessment. The independent associations between TAC and incident CAC in those without CAC at baseline and between TAC and CAC progression in those with CAC at baseline were investigated. The final study population consisted of 5,755 subjects (84%; mean age 62 +/- 10 years, 48% men) who had follow-up CAC scores an average of 2.4 years later. Incident CAC was significantly higher in those with TAC compared with those without TAC at baseline (11 per 100 patient-years vs 6 per 100 patient-years). Similarly, TAC was associated with a higher CAC change (p CAC at baseline. In analysis adjusted for demographics and follow-up duration, TAC was associated with incident CAC (relative risk 1.72, p CAC change (first quartile: relative risk 2.89, 95% confidence interval -3.16 to 8.95; fourth quartile: relative risk 24.21, 95% confidence interval 18.25 to 30.18). In conclusion, TAC is associated with the incidence and progression of CAC. The detection of TAC may improve risk stratification efforts. Future clinical outcomes studies are needed to support such an approach.

  2. Models for Rational Decision Making. Analysis of Literature and Selected Bibliography. Analysis and Bibliography Series, No. 6.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hall, John S.

    This review analyzes the trend in educational decision making to replace hierarchical authority structures with more rational models for decision making drawn from management science. Emphasis is also placed on alternatives to a hierarchical decision-making model, including governing models, union models, and influence models. A 54-item…

  3. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF FUZZY METAGRAPH BASED DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM FOR CAPITAL MARKET

    OpenAIRE

    Anbalagan Thirunavukarasu; Uma Maheswari

    2013-01-01

    This study proposes a Fuzzy Metagraph based Decision Support System (DSS) for short term and long term investment in share market. This rule base decision system will help traders to make correct decision at very low risk. Relative Strength Index (RSI), Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) and WILLIAM- %R are some of the Technical Indicators which are used as input to train the system which is integrated with Fuzzy Metagraph. This approach of incorporating Fuzzy Metagraph with RSI, MA...

  4. Game Theory Model and Equilibrium Analysis of Peasant's Production Decision

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Qi Xue-lian; Zhang Ya-zhuo; Meng Jun

    2012-01-01

    Unbalanced agricultural production decision becomes the great block that influences the effective distribution of social resources, national grain security, social stability and economic development. This paper took the game theory as an analyzed tool to describe the interactional processes among the peasants, and set up the game theory model of independent decision and joint decision by peasants. It was shown that the government's positive guide and the market environment macroscopically controlled by the government could effectively increased the peasants' income

  5. 78 FR 16816 - Radio Broadcasting Services; Ehrenberg, First Mesa, Kachina Village, Munds Park, Wickenburg, and...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-03-19

    ... COMMISSION 47 CFR Part 73 Radio Broadcasting Services; Ehrenberg, First Mesa, Kachina Village, Munds Park... Media Bureau grants a Counterproposal filed by Grenax Broadcasting II, LLC, for a new FM allotment on... filed by Univision Radio License Corporation for an increase in existing service by Station...

  6. 77 FR 2242 - Radio Broadcasting Services; Ehrenberg, First Mesa, Kachina Village, Wickenburg, and Williams, AZ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-17

    ... COMMISSION 47 CFR Part 73 [MB Docket No. 08-85; RM-11427, RM-11517, RM-11518, RM-11519; DA 11- 2059] Radio Broadcasting Services; Ehrenberg, First Mesa, Kachina Village, Wickenburg, and Williams, AZ, and Needles, CA... Radio, Inc. (RM-11517) and Univision Radio License Corporation (RM-11518), which are mutually...

  7. 77 FR 18997 - Rim Lakes Forest Restoration Project; Apache-Sitgreavese National Forest, Black Mesa Ranger...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-03-29

    ...] [FR Doc No: 2012-7527] DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE Forest Service Rim Lakes Forest Restoration Project; Apache-Sitgreavese National Forest, Black Mesa Ranger District, Coconino County, AZ AGENCY: Forest.... Forest Service (FS) will prepare an environmental impact statement (EIS) on a proposed action to...

  8. ERDA test facilities, East Mesa Test Site. Geothermal resource investigations, Imperial Valley, California

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1976-01-01

    Detailed specifications which must be complied with in the construction of the ERDA Test Facilities at the East Mesa Site for geothermal resource investigations in Imperial Valley, California are presented for use by prospective bidders for the construction contract. The principle construction work includes a 700 gpm cooling tower with its associated supports and equipment, pipelines from wells, electrical equipment, and all earthwork. (LCL)

  9. 77 FR 24673 - Grand Mesa, Uncompahgre and Gunnison National Forests; Colorado; Federal Coal Lease Modifications...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-04-25

    ... vital to the local and regional economies. Coal from the North Fork Valley helps fuel clean coal... Forest Service Grand Mesa, Uncompahgre and Gunnison National Forests; Colorado; Federal Coal Lease... decide whether or not to consent to Bureau of Land Management (BLM) modifying the Federal Coal Leases...

  10. 76 FR 22075 - Divide Ranger District, Rio Grande National Forest; CO; Black Mesa Vegetation Management Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-04-20

    ... Vegetation Management Project AGENCY: Forest Service, USDA. ACTION: Notice of intent to prepare an... Mesa Vegetation Management Project Public Comment. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Diana McGinn at 719... Management'', then ``Projects'' on the left side of the Web page. Individuals who use...

  11. Women's Self-Efficacy Perceptions in Mathematics and Science: Investigating USC-MESA Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hong, Rebecca C.; Jun, Alexander

    2012-01-01

    Higher education institutions have struggled with the underrepresentation of female students in the STEM majors. The authors investigate the USC-MESA program and the role of women's self-efficacy perceptions in mathematics and science. It is crucial to understand the theory of self-efficacy in examining historically underrepresented populations in…

  12. 77 FR 2241 - Radio Broadcasting Services; Ehrenberg, First Mesa, Kachina Village, Wickenburg, and Williams, AZ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-17

    ... COMMISSION 47 CFR Part 73 Radio Broadcasting Services; Ehrenberg, First Mesa, Kachina Village, Wickenburg, and Williams, AZ; and Application of Univision Radio License Corporation, KHOV-FM, Wickenburg, AZ... by Rocket Radio, Inc., proposes the allotment of FM Channel 287C2 at Williams, Arizona, as...

  13. Transportation of the MOAB Uranium Mill Tailings to White Mesa Mill by Slurry Pipeline

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hochstein, R. F.; Warner, R.; Wetz, T. V.

    2003-02-26

    The Moab uranium mill tailings pile, located at the former Atlas Minerals Corporation site approximately three miles north of Moab, Utah, is now under the control of the US Department of Energy (''DOE''). The location of the tailings pile adjacent to the Colorado River, and the ongoing contamination of groundwater and seepage of pollutants into the river, have lead to the investigation, as part of the final site remediation program, of alternatives to relocate the tailings to a qualified permanent disposal site. This paper will describe the approach being taken by the team formed between International Uranium (USA) Corporation (''IUC'') and Washington Group International (''WGINT'') to develop an innovative technical proposal to relocate the Moab tailings to IUC's White Mesa Mill south of Blanding, Utah. The proposed approach for relocating the tailings involves using a slurry pipeline to transport the tailings to the White Mesa Mill. The White Mesa Mill is a fully licensed, active uranium mill site that is uniquely suited for permanent disposal of the Moab tailings. The tailings slurry would be dewatered at the White Mesa Mill, the slurry water would be recycled to the Moab site for reuse in slurry makeup, and the ''dry'' tailings would be permanently disposed of in an approved below grade cell at the mill site.

  14. Sociodemographic correlates of cognition in the multi-ethnic study of atherosclerosis (MESA)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Our objective was to describe the methodology utilized to evaluate cognitive function in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) and to present preliminary results by age, sex, and race/ethnicity. Cross-sectional measurements of a prospective observational cohort. Residents of 6 U.S. commun...

  15. 75 FR 46945 - Proposed Collection; Comment Request; Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) Event...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-08-04

    ... Atherosclerosis (MESA) Event Surveillance SUMMARY: In compliance with the requirement of Section 3506(c)(2)(A) of... Budget (OMB) for review and approval. Proposed Collection: Title: Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis... and progression of subclinical cardiovascular disease (CVD)-- that is, atherosclerosis and other...

  16. Mesa-height Dependent Quantum Efficiency Characteristics of InGaN Micro-LEDs

    KAUST Repository

    Shen, Chao

    2013-01-01

    The mechanisms of mesa-height dependent efficiency and efficiency droop of blue InGaN/GaN micro-LED is presented. Device with a large etch-depth (> 1.3 µm) shows significant strain relief with aggravated current crowding.

  17. Using fuzzy logic analysis for siting decisions of infiltration trenches for highway runoff control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ki, Seo Jin; Ray, Chittaranjan

    2014-09-15

    Determining optimal locations for best management practices (BMPs), including their field considerations and limitations, plays an important role for effective stormwater management. However, these issues have been often overlooked in modeling studies that focused on downstream water quality benefits. This study illustrates the methodology of locating infiltration trenches at suitable locations from spatial overlay analyses which combine multiple layers that address different aspects of field application into a composite map. Using seven thematic layers for each analysis, fuzzy logic was employed to develop a site suitability map for infiltration trenches, whereas the DRASTIC method was used to produce a groundwater vulnerability map on the island of Oahu, Hawaii, USA. In addition, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), one of the most popular overlay analyses, was used for comparison to fuzzy logic. The results showed that the AHP and fuzzy logic methods developed significantly different index maps in terms of best locations and suitability scores. Specifically, the AHP method provided a maximum level of site suitability due to its inherent aggregation approach of all input layers in a linear equation. The most eligible areas in locating infiltration trenches were determined from the superposition of the site suitability and groundwater vulnerability maps using the fuzzy AND operator. The resulting map successfully balanced qualification criteria for a low risk of groundwater contamination and the best BMP site selection. The results of the sensitivity analysis showed that the suitability scores were strongly affected by the algorithms embedded in fuzzy logic; therefore, caution is recommended with their use in overlay analysis. Accordingly, this study demonstrates that the fuzzy logic analysis can not only be used to improve spatial decision quality along with other overlay approaches, but also is combined with general water quality models for initial and refined

  18. A GIS based spatially-explicit sensitivity and uncertainty analysis approach for multi-criteria decision analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feizizadeh, Bakhtiar; Jankowski, Piotr; Blaschke, Thomas

    2014-03-01

    GIS multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) techniques are increasingly used in landslide susceptibility mapping for the prediction of future hazards, land use planning, as well as for hazard preparedness. However, the uncertainties associated with MCDA techniques are inevitable and model outcomes are open to multiple types of uncertainty. In this paper, we present a systematic approach to uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. We access the uncertainty of landslide susceptibility maps produced with GIS-MCDA techniques. A new spatially-explicit approach and Dempster-Shafer Theory (DST) are employed to assess the uncertainties associated with two MCDA techniques, namely Analytical Hierarchical Process (AHP) and Ordered Weighted Averaging (OWA) implemented in GIS. The methodology is composed of three different phases. First, weights are computed to express the relative importance of factors (criteria) for landslide susceptibility. Next, the uncertainty and sensitivity of landslide susceptibility is analyzed as a function of weights using Monte Carlo Simulation and Global Sensitivity Analysis. Finally, the results are validated using a landslide inventory database and by applying DST. The comparisons of the obtained landslide susceptibility maps of both MCDA techniques with known landslides show that the AHP outperforms OWA. However, the OWA-generated landslide susceptibility map shows lower uncertainty than the AHP-generated map. The results demonstrate that further improvement in the accuracy of GIS-based MCDA can be achieved by employing an integrated uncertainty-sensitivity analysis approach, in which the uncertainty of landslide susceptibility model is decomposed and attributed to model's criteria weights.

  19. Análisis de la condición física en jugadores y jugadoras de tenis de mesa y su relación con el rendimiento deportivo. [Physical fitness analysis in male and female table tennis players and their relationship to competition performance].

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jon Mikel Picabea

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Los objetivos de este estudio fueron analizar el perfil físico de jugadores de tenis de mesa, observar si existían diferencias en función del género en las pruebas realizadas y determinar si existía alguna relación entre las pruebas de condición física y el rendimiento deportivo. Veinte jugadores de tenis de mesa, de los cuales 10 eran jugadores de categoría masculina (17,61 ± 7,56 años, 1,63 ± 0,11 m, 60,62 ± 20,03 kg, 22,07 ± 5,87 kg/m2 y 10 jugadoras de categoría femenina (17,35 ± 7,12 años, 1,61 ± 0,07 m, 48,89 ± 7,66 kg, 19,33 ± 2,26 kg/m2 fueron evaluados en la capacidad de sprint, fuerza isométrica de antebrazo, salto vertical con contra movimiento, salto horizontal con contra movimiento, capacidad de cambiar de dirección y flexibilidad. Los resultados mostraron mejores resultados en el grupo de jugadores masculinos en comparación con el grupo femenino en el test de capacidad de cambio de dirección (MAT, p 0,05 entre el resultado obtenido en las pruebas de condición física y el rendimiento deportivo en competición ni en jugadores masculinos ni femeninos. Este aspecto pone de manifiesto que la condición física puede no ser uno de los factores relevantes en el rendimiento deportivo de los jugadores de tenis de mesa de este estudio. Abstract The aims of this study were to analyze the physical profile of table tennis players, look at differences between genders in the different tests and to determinate the relationships between the physical fitness test and sport performance. 20 table tennis players, 10 male players (17.61 ± 7.56 years, 1.63 ± 0.11 m, 60.62 ± 20.03 kg, 22.07 ± 5.87 kg/m2 and 10 female players (17.35 ± 7.12 years, 1.61 ± 0.07 m, 48.89 ± 7.66 kg, 19.33 ± 2.26 kg/m2, performed a sprint test, forearm isometric strength, countermovement vertical test, countermovement horizontal test, change of direction ability test and flexibility. The male players obtained better results than the female

  20. The information value of early career productivity in mathematics: a ROC analysis of prediction errors in bibliometricly informed decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindahl, Jonas; Danell, Rickard

    2016-01-01

    The aim of this study was to provide a framework to evaluate bibliometric indicators as decision support tools from a decision making perspective and to examine the information value of early career publication rate as a predictor of future productivity. We used ROC analysis to evaluate a bibliometric indicator as a tool for binary decision making. The dataset consisted of 451 early career researchers in the mathematical sub-field of number theory. We investigated the effect of three different definitions of top performance groups-top 10, top 25, and top 50 %; the consequences of using different thresholds in the prediction models; and the added prediction value of information on early career research collaboration and publications in prestige journals. We conclude that early career performance productivity has an information value in all tested decision scenarios, but future performance is more predictable if the definition of a high performance group is more exclusive. Estimated optimal decision thresholds using the Youden index indicated that the top 10 % decision scenario should use 7 articles, the top 25 % scenario should use 7 articles, and the top 50 % should use 5 articles to minimize prediction errors. A comparative analysis between the decision thresholds provided by the Youden index which take consequences into consideration and a method commonly used in evaluative bibliometrics which do not take consequences into consideration when determining decision thresholds, indicated that differences are trivial for the top 25 and the 50 % groups. However, a statistically significant difference between the methods was found for the top 10 % group. Information on early career collaboration and publication strategies did not add any prediction value to the bibliometric indicator publication rate in any of the models. The key contributions of this research is the focus on consequences in terms of prediction errors and the notion of transforming uncertainty

  1. Analysis for making a regulatory decision to equipment of industrial gammagraphy in Argentin; Analisis para la toma de decision regulatoria sobre equipos de gammagrafia industrial en Argentina

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ermacora, Marcela G.; Vidal, Dora N.; Alonso, Maria T., E-mail: mermacora@arn.gob.ar, E-mail: dvidal@arn.gob.ar, E-mail: malonso@arn.gob.ar [Autoridad Regulatoria Nuclear (ARN), Buenos Aires (Argentina)

    2013-10-01

    Industrial gammagraphy is a practice widely used as a nondestructive testing technique in Argentina. Experience worldwide has shown the need for an improvement in the intrinsic safety of the equipment used in this lab. In response to this reason, the board of the Nuclear Regulatory Authority (ARN) has considered a proposal to withdraw service movement and much of the equipment inventory scan belonging to industrial facilities nationwide. The main objective of this paper is to present the results of the analysis performed to support the above proposal. The main elements of evaluation can be summarized as follows: I) the teams that do not conform to international recommendations regarding compliance with key safety requirements of international standards such as ISO 3999:2004 (E) {sup R}adiation protection - Industrial Apparatus for gamma radiography - Specifications for performance, design and tests {sup ;} II) the decision by some manufacturers to discontinue production of certain models of equipment and the provision of spare parts, and III) the validity of certificates bulk type B (U) for transport. In conclusion, it highlights the importance of a regulatory decision supplementary to the Standard AR 7.9.1 concerning the operation of scan equipment industry, based on current international recommendations and Argentina's commitment to good practice and safety culture which can lead to a positive impact on radiation safety in this art.

  2. Completion Report for Well ER-EC-14, Corrective Action Units 101 and 102: Central and Western Pahute Mesa

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2013-03-05

    709.6 m of Tertiary volcanic rocks. The stratigraphy and general lithology were not as expected due to the position of Well ER-EC-14 relative to the buried caldera margins of the Timber Mountain caldera complex. The well is located inside the Rainier Mesa caldera, but outside the younger Ammonia Tanks caldera. On November 5, 2012, a preliminary fluid level in the shallow piezometer string was measured at the depth of 311.8 m. This water level depth was taken before installation of the bridge plug (to be placed within the main completion casing to separate the two slotted zones). Well development, hydrologic testing, and sampling, will be conducted at a later date. No tritium above levels detectable by field methods were encountered in this hole. All Fluid Management Plan (FMP) requirements for Well ER-EC-14 were met. Analysis of monitoring samples and FMP confirmatory samples indicated that fluids generated during drilling at Well ER-EC-14 met the FMP criteria for discharge to an unlined sump or designated infiltration area. All sanitary and hydrocarbon waste generated was properly handled and disposed of.

  3. When is enough evidence enough? - Using systematic decision analysis and value-of-information analysis to determine the need for further evidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siebert, Uwe; Rochau, Ursula; Claxton, Karl

    2013-01-01

    Decision analysis (DA) and value-of-information (VOI) analysis provide a systematic, quantitative methodological framework that explicitly considers the uncertainty surrounding the currently available evidence to guide healthcare decisions. In medical decision making under uncertainty, there are two fundamental questions: 1) What decision should be made now given the best available evidence (and its uncertainty)?; 2) Subsequent to the current decision and given the magnitude of the remaining uncertainty, should we gather further evidence (i.e., perform additional studies), and if yes, which studies should be undertaken (e.g., efficacy, side effects, quality of life, costs), and what sample sizes are needed? Using the currently best available evidence, VoI analysis focuses on the likelihood of making a wrong decision if the new intervention is adopted. The value of performing further studies and gathering additional evidence is based on the extent to which the additional information will reduce this uncertainty. A quantitative framework allows for the valuation of the additional information that is generated by further research, and considers the decision maker's objectives and resource constraints. Claxton et al. summarise: "Value of information analysis can be used to inform a range of policy questions including whether a new technology should be approved based on existing evidence, whether it should be approved but additional research conducted or whether approval should be withheld until the additional evidence becomes available." [Claxton K. Value of information entry in Encyclopaedia of Health Economics, Elsevier, forthcoming 2014.] The purpose of this tutorial is to introduce the framework of systematic VoI analysis to guide further research. In our tutorial article, we explain the theoretical foundations and practical methods of decision analysis and value-of-information analysis. To illustrate, we use a simple case example of a foot ulcer (e.g., with

  4. Decision analysis to complete diagnostic research by closing the gap between test characteristics and cost-effectiveness

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schaafsma, Joanna D.; van der Graaf, Yolanda; Rinkel, Gabriel J. E.; Buskens, Erik

    2009-01-01

    Objective: The lack of a standard methodology in diagnostic research impedes adequate evaluation before implementation of constantly developing diagnostic techniques. We discuss the methodology of diagnostic research and underscore the relevance of decision analysis in the process of evaluation of d

  5. "Junior Doctor Decision Making: Isn't that an Oxymoron?" A Qualitative Analysis of Junior Doctors' Ward-Based Decision-Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bull, Stephanie; Mattick, Karen; Postlethwaite, Keith

    2013-01-01

    Unacceptable levels of adverse healthcare events, combined with changes to training, have put the spotlight on junior doctor decision-making. This study aimed to describe the decisions made by junior doctors and the contextual factors influencing how decisions were made and justified. Stimulated recall interviews with 20 junior doctors across five…

  6. GIS-based Landing-Site Analysis and Passive Decision Support

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Gasselt, Stephan; Nass, Andrea

    2016-04-01

    The increase of surface coverage and the availability and accessibility of planetary data allow researchers and engineers to remotely perform detailed studies on surface processes and properties, in particular on objects such as Mars and the Moon for which Terabytes of multi-temporal data at multiple spatial resolution levels have become available during the last 15 years. Orbiters, rovers and landers have been returning information and insights into the surface evolution of the terrestrial planets in unprecedented detail. While rover- and lander-based analyses are one major research aim to obtain ground truth, resource exploration or even potential establishment of bases using autonomous platforms are others and they require detailed investigation of settings in order to identify spots on the surface that are suitable for spacecraft to land and operate safely and over a long period of time. What has been done using hardcopy material in the past is today being carried by using either in-house developments or off-the-shelf spatial information system technology which allows to manage, integrate and analyse data as well as visualize and create user-defined reports for performing assessments. Usually, such analyses can be broken down (manually) by considering scientific wishes, engineering boundary conditions, potential hazards and various tertiary constraints. We here (1) review standard tasks of landing site analyses, (2) discuss issues inherently related to the analysis using integrated spatial analysis systems and (3) demonstrate a modular analysis framework for integration of data and for the evaluation of results from individual tasks in order to support decisions for landing-site selection.

  7. A conceptual approach for a quantitative economic analysis of farmers’ decision-making regarding animal welfare

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gocsik, E.; Saatkamp, H.W.; Lauwere, de C.C.; Oude Lansink, A.G.J.M.

    2014-01-01

    Decisions related to animal welfare (AW) standards depend on farmer’s multiple goals and values and are constrained by a wide range of external and internal forces. The aim of this paper is twofold, i.e., (1) to develop a theoretical framework for farmers’ AW decisions that incorporates farmers’ goa

  8. Decision-Support Data Analysis: Examining Consistency among Teachers in Writing Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Archbald, Doug

    2011-01-01

    Education leaders and much literature exhort teachers and school leaders to use data more often and more effectively to guide planning and decision making--called, "data driven decision making." This term is ubiquitous in literature and reform discourse, but "on the ground," so to speak, practitioners face significant challenges in analyzing,…

  9. Despite Best Intentions: A Critical Analysis of Social Justice Leadership and Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeMatthews, David E.; Mungal, Angus Shiva; Carrola, Paul A.

    2015-01-01

    The purpose of this article is to explore the relationship between social justice leadership and organizational decision making in order to make recommendations for how principals can make more socially just decisions in difficult school contexts. This article begins with a discussion of social justice leadership, facets and theories associated…

  10. Analysis of Community Practice Clinical Decision-Making Skills in Pharmacy Students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greer, Marianne L.; Kirk, Kenneth W.

    1988-01-01

    A computerized, simulation-based instrument, consisting of four community practice clinical scenarios, collected information-searching data and the students' decisions. The appropriateness of the decisions, assessed by three clinical judges, and the focus of information search, based on the computer-collected process data, were the dependent…

  11. Aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage prognostic decision-making algorithm using classification and regression tree analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Benjamin W. Y. Lo

    2016-01-01

    Conclusions: A clinically useful classification tree was generated, which serves as a prediction tool to guide bedside prognostication and clinical treatment decision making. This prognostic decision-making algorithm also shed light on the complex interactions between a number of risk factors in determining outcome after aneurysmal SAH.

  12. DASEES: A Tripartite Decision Analysis Framework to Achieve Sustainable Environment, Economy & Society Growth and Management Goals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Many of Societies management and growth decisions are often made without a balanced consideration of pertinent factors from environmental, economic and societal perspectives. All three of these areas are key players in many of the decisions facing societies as they strive to ope...

  13. The Yeshiva Case: Special Analysis. The Impact of the Supreme Court Decision.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levenstein, Aaron, E.

    1980-01-01

    The impact of the Supreme Court Decision, "National Labor Relations Board versus Yeshiva University," on collective bargaining at colleges and universities is considered. The basic thrust of the majority decision is that faculty are not under the umbrella of the National Labor Relations Act and that administration may refuse to negotiate with a…

  14. Phase I Transport Model of Corrective Action Units 101 and 102: Central and Western Pahute Mesa, Nevada Test Site, Nye County, Nevada with Errata Sheet 1, 2, 3, Revision 1

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Greg Ruskauff

    2009-02-01

    As prescribed in the Pahute Mesa Corrective Action Investigation Plan (CAIP) (DOE/NV, 1999) and Appendix VI of the Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order (FFACO) (1996, as amended February 2008), the ultimate goal of transport analysis is to develop stochastic predictions of a contaminant boundary at a specified level of uncertainty. However, because of the significant uncertainty of the model results, the primary goal of this report was modified through mutual agreement between the DOE and the State of Nevada to assess the primary model components that contribute to this uncertainty and to postpone defining the contaminant boundary until additional model refinement is completed. Therefore, the role of this analysis has been to understand the behavior of radionuclide migration in the Pahute Mesa (PM) Corrective Action Unit (CAU) model and to define, both qualitatively and quantitatively, the sensitivity of such behavior to (flow) model conceptualization and (flow and transport) parameterization.

  15. Completion Report for Well ER-20-4 Corrective Action Units 101 and 102: Central and Western Pahute Mesa

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NSTec Environmental Management

    2011-04-30

    Well ER-20-4 was drilled for the U.S. Department of Energy, National Nuclear Security Administration Nevada Site Office in support of the Nevada Environmental Restoration Project at the Nevada National Security Site, Nye County, Nevada. The well was drilled in August and September 2010 as part of the Pahute Mesa Phase II drilling program. The primary purpose of the well was to investigate the possibility of radionuclide transport from up-gradient underground nuclear tests conducted in central Pahute Mesa. This well also provided detailed hydrogeologic information in the Tertiary volcanic section that will help reduce uncertainties within the Pahute Mesa-Oasis Valley hydrostratigraphic framework model.

  16. Decision analysis in the expansion planning of the Mexican Electrical System; Analisis de decision en la planificacion de la expansion del Sistema Electrico Mexicano

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Toupiol, S.; Martin del Campo M, C.; Ortega C, R. [Departamento de Sistemas Energeticos, Facultad de Ingenieria UNAM, Circuito Exterior s/n, Ciudad Universitaria, 04510 Mexico D.F. (Mexico)]. e-mail: stoupiol@yahoo.fr

    2007-07-01

    In the last years, the planning of the National Interconnected System has been guided mainly to technologies of combined cycle, contributing to the establishment of a generation system little diversified and clerk of the readiness and volatility of the prices of natural gas. On the other hand, the electric system continues expanding without to consider the emissions of gases coming from the electric generation and the significant participation of the renewable and nuclear technologies in the production of electricity like decisive parameters for the long term planning, for what the developed plans are economically attractive but they don't contribute to the respect of the environment, to the sustainable development, neither to the diversification. With base to the above-mentioned intended in this work to develop viable outlines for the long term expansion of the National Interconnected System (period 2005-2024), appealing to the pattern of uni nodal planning that uses the Federal Commission of Electricity at the moment (CFE) that is to say the pattern WASP given by the International Atomic Energy Agency. This way, you fixed as objective to propose two expansion alternatives to the reference plan developed by the CFE in 2005 for the period 2005-2024, with the purpose of not only looking for the good plan of these three plans in terms of the total cost of generation, but also in terms of the risk associated to the price of natural gas, the emissions of dioxide of sulfur and nitrogen oxides generated by the plants of the system and the diversity of the generation park. To compare the three developed plans, you applies an analysis of decision of multiple approaches based on the approach of Savage. Finally, starting from this analysis, he/she intended to determine if the plan of minimum cost represents the long term better option or if it suits but to expand the system being based on a plan that represents the best commitment cost-risk-emission-diversity. (Author)

  17. Processes of decision making on energy issues: micro and macro analysis (the case of Poland 2015

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katarzyna Iwińska

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Article tackles the idea of environmental and participatory democracy in Poland. Due to Convention on Access to Information, Public Participation in Decision-making and Access to Justice in Environmental Matters known as the Aarhus Convention people should be involved in decisions concerning environment and energy issues in the country. All large investments, and those are certainly investments in energy infrastructure, are associated with a variety of interest groups and organizations. The main goal of this article is to show the decision making processes do not come across the knowledge and public information on nuclear energy in Poland. We present the context and background for the structural model of energy decisions using and reinterpreting survey data from 2014 and 2015 from the opinion polls on various sources of energy in Poland. From this point of departure we distinguish the micro-, meso- and macro- level of energy decisions.

  18. Recommendations for Standardizing Glucose Reporting and Analysis to Optimize Clinical Decision Making in Diabetes: The Ambulatory Glucose Profile

    OpenAIRE

    Bergenstal, Richard M.; Ahmann, Andrew J.; Bailey, Timothy; Beck, Roy W.; Bissen, Joan; Buckingham, Bruce; Deeb, Larry; Dolin, Robert H.; Garg, Satish K.; Goland, Robin; Hirsch, Irl B.; Klonoff, David C.; Kruger, Davida F; Matfin, Glenn; Mazze, Roger S.

    2013-01-01

    Underutilization of glucose data and lack of easy and standardized glucose data collection, analysis, visualization, and guided clinical decision making are key contributors to poor glycemic control among individuals with type 1 diabetes mellitus. An expert panel of diabetes specialists, facilitated by the International Diabetes Center and sponsored by the Helmsley Charitable Trust, met in 2012 to discuss recommendations for standardizing the analysis and presentation of glucose monitoring da...

  19. A meta-analysis of gender stereotypes and bias in experimental simulations of employment decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koch, Amanda J; D'Mello, Susan D; Sackett, Paul R

    2015-01-01

    Gender bias continues to be a concern in many work settings, leading researchers to identify factors that influence workplace decisions. In this study we examine several of these factors, using an organizing framework of sex distribution within jobs (including male- and female-dominated jobs as well as sex-balanced, or integrated, jobs). We conducted random effects meta-analyses including 136 independent effect sizes from experimental studies (N = 22,348) and examined the effects of decision-maker gender, amount and content of information available to the decision maker, type of evaluation, and motivation to make careful decisions on gender bias in organizational decisions. We also examined study characteristics such as type of participant, publication year, and study design. Our findings revealed that men were preferred for male-dominated jobs (i.e., gender-role congruity bias), whereas no strong preference for either gender was found for female-dominated or integrated jobs. Second, male raters exhibited greater gender-role congruity bias than did female raters for male-dominated jobs. Third, gender-role congruity bias did not consistently decrease when decision makers were provided with additional information about those they were rating, but gender-role congruity bias was reduced when information clearly indicated high competence of those being evaluated. Fourth, gender-role congruity bias did not differ between decisions that required comparisons among ratees and decisions made about individual ratees. Fifth, decision makers who were motivated to make careful decisions tended to exhibit less gender-role congruity bias for male-dominated jobs. Finally, for male-dominated jobs, experienced professionals showed smaller gender-role congruity bias than did undergraduates or working adults.

  20. Analysis of a Multilevel Diagnosis Decision Support System and Its Implications: A Case Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alejandro Rodríguez-González

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Medical diagnosis can be performed in an automatic way with the use of computer-based systems or algorithms. Such systems are usually called diagnostic decision support systems (DDSSs or medical diagnosis systems (MDSs. An evaluation of the performance of a DDSS called ML-DDSS has been performed in this paper. The methodology is based on clinical case resolution performed by physicians which is then used to evaluate the behavior of ML-DDSS. This methodology allows the calculation of values for several well-known metrics such as precision, recall, accuracy, specificity, and Matthews correlation coefficient (MCC. Analysis of the behavior of ML-DDSS reveals interesting results about the behavior of the system and of the physicians who took part in the evaluation process. Global results show how the ML-DDSS system would have significant utility if used in medical practice. The MCC metric reveals an improvement of about 30% in comparison with the experts, and with respect to sensitivity the system returns better results than the experts.

  1. Analysis of a Multilevel Diagnosis Decision Support System and Its Implications: A Case Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodríguez-González, Alejandro; Torres-Niño, Javier; Mayer, Miguel A.; Alor-Hernandez, Giner; Wilkinson, Mark D.

    2012-01-01

    Medical diagnosis can be performed in an automatic way with the use of computer-based systems or algorithms. Such systems are usually called diagnostic decision support systems (DDSSs) or medical diagnosis systems (MDSs). An evaluation of the performance of a DDSS called ML-DDSS has been performed in this paper. The methodology is based on clinical case resolution performed by physicians which is then used to evaluate the behavior of ML-DDSS. This methodology allows the calculation of values for several well-known metrics such as precision, recall, accuracy, specificity, and Matthews correlation coefficient (MCC). Analysis of the behavior of ML-DDSS reveals interesting results about the behavior of the system and of the physicians who took part in the evaluation process. Global results show how the ML-DDSS system would have significant utility if used in medical practice. The MCC metric reveals an improvement of about 30% in comparison with the experts, and with respect to sensitivity the system returns better results than the experts. PMID:23320043

  2. Using soil function evaluation in multi-criteria decision analysis for sustainability appraisal of remediation alternatives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Volchko, Yevheniya; Norrman, Jenny; Rosén, Lars; Bergknut, Magnus; Josefsson, Sarah; Söderqvist, Tore; Norberg, Tommy; Wiberg, Karin; Tysklind, Mats

    2014-07-01

    Soil contamination is one of the major threats constraining proper functioning of the soil and thus provision of ecosystem services. Remedial actions typically only address the chemical soil quality by reducing total contaminant concentrations to acceptable levels guided by land use. However, emerging regulatory requirements on soil protection demand a holistic view on soil assessment in remediation projects thus accounting for a variety of soil functions. Such a view would require not only that the contamination concentrations are assessed and attended to, but also that other aspects are taking into account, thus addressing also physical and biological as well as other chemical soil quality indicators (SQIs). This study outlines how soil function assessment can be a part of a holistic sustainability appraisal of remediation alternatives using multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA). The paper presents a method for practitioners for evaluating the effects of remediation alternatives on selected ecological soil functions using a suggested minimum data set (MDS) containing physical, biological and chemical SQIs. The measured SQIs are transformed into sub-scores by the use of scoring curves, which allows interpretation and the integration of soil quality data into the MCDA framework. The method is demonstrated at a study site (Marieberg, Sweden) and the results give an example of how soil analyses using the suggested MDS can be used for soil function assessment and subsequent input to the MCDA framework.

  3. ANALYSIS AND SYNTHESIS OF A DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM WITHIN MEDICALECONOMIC PREFERENTIAL DRUGS PRESCRIPTION CONTROL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Koshkarov A. A.

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available There are about 575 thousand of citizens in the Krasnodar Region that are entitled to a preferential medical maintenance in accordance with the Federal Law of 17.07.1999 (№178-FZ "On state social assistance." About 120 thousand of preferential prescriptions for 150 thousand of medicines are serviced per month. In order to make the drugs prescription process based exceptionally on real medical indications in accordance with modern concepts of medical service quality it is necessary to plan the medical-economic drugs prescription validity control (MEC. The work proposes the analysis and synthesis method of decision support system (DSS modules for automation the selection of drugs prescription and medicinal maintenance cases, concerning the federal benefit recipients, while performing the MEC. DSS allows medical experts to estimate the efficiency of federal funds costs, that are spent on the preferential medicinal maintenance, moreover, it can serve as a basis for future purchases planning, as well as to correct and improve the efficiency of medical prescriptions. The DSS was developed in accordance with the approved procedure of information exchange in the Krasnodar Region; it involves the integration with existing systems. Furthermore, as the federal register of persons, entitled to the state social assistance, has common formats among all the Russian Federation subjects, the developed system can be easily adapted in other regions

  4. The Best Path Analysis in Military Highway Transport Based on DEA and Multiobjective Fuzzy Decision-Making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wu Juan

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Military transport path selection directly affects the transport speed, efficiency, and safety. To a certain degree, the results of the path selection determine success or failure of the war situation. The purpose of this paper is to propose a model based on DEA (data envelopment analysis and multiobjective fuzzy decision-making for path selection. The path decision set is established according to a search algorithm based on overlapping section punishment. Considering the influence of various fuzzy factors, the model of optimal path is constructed based on DEA and multitarget fuzzy decision-making theory, where travel time, transport risk, quick response capability, and transport cost constitute the evaluation target set. A reasonable path set can be calculated and sorted according to the comprehensive scores of the paths. The numerical results show that the model and the related algorithms are effective for path selection of military transport.

  5. Risk analysis for decision support in electricity distribution system asset management: methods and frameworks for analysing intangible risks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nordgaard, Dag Eirik

    2010-04-15

    During the last 10 to 15 years electricity distribution companies throughout the world have been ever more focused on asset management as the guiding principle for their activities. Within asset management, risk is a key issue for distribution companies, together with handling of cost and performance. There is now an increased awareness of the need to include risk analyses into the companies' decision making processes. Much of the work on risk in electricity distribution systems has focused on aspects of reliability. This is understandable, since it is surely an important feature of the product delivered by the electricity distribution infrastructure, and it is high on the agenda for regulatory authorities in many countries. However, electricity distribution companies are also concerned with other risks relevant for their decision making. This typically involves intangible risks, such as safety, environmental impacts and company reputation. In contrast to the numerous methodologies developed for reliability risk analysis, there are relatively few applications of structured analyses to support decisions concerning intangible risks, even though they represent an important motivation for decisions taken in electricity distribution companies. The overall objective of this PhD work has been to explore risk analysis methods that can be used to improve and support decision making in electricity distribution system asset management, with an emphasis on the analysis of intangible risks. The main contributions of this thesis can be summarised as: An exploration and testing of quantitative risk analysis (QRA) methods to support decisions concerning intangible risks; The development of a procedure for using life curve models to provide input to QRA models; The development of a framework for risk-informed decision making where QRA are used to analyse selected problems; In addition, the results contribute to clarify the basic concepts of risk, and highlight challenges

  6. Post-marketing access to orphan drugs: a critical analysis of health technology assessment and reimbursement decision-making considerations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iskrov G

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Georgi Iskrov, Rumen Stefanov Department of Social Medicine and Public Health, Medical University of Plovdiv, Plovdiv, Bulgaria Abstract: This study aims to explore the current rationale of post-marketing access to orphan drugs. As access to orphan medicinal products depends on assessment and appraisal by health authorities, this article is focused on health technology assessment (HTA and reimbursement decision-making considerations for orphan drugs. A critical analysis may identify important factors that could predetermine the combined outcomes of these two processes. Following this objective, an analytical framework was developed, comprising three overlaying issues: to outline what is currently done and what needs to be done in the field of HTA of orphan drugs, to synthesize important variables relevant to the reimbursement decision-making about orphan drugs, and to unveil relationships between theory and practice. Methods for economic evaluation, cost-effectiveness threshold, budget impact, uncertainty of evidence, criteria in reimbursement decision-making, and HTA research agenda are all explored and discussed from an orphan drug perspective. Reimbursement decision-making for orphan drugs is a debate of policy priorities, health system specifics, and societal attitudes. Health authorities need to pursue a multidisciplinary analysis on a range of criteria, ensuring an explicit understanding of the trade-offs for decisions related to eligibility for reimbursement. The only reasonable way to accept a higher valuation of orphan drug benefits is if these are demonstrated empirically. Rarity means that the quality of orphan drug evidence is not the same as for conventional therapies. Closing this gap is another crucial point for the timely access to these products. The generation of evidence goes far beyond pre-market authorization trials and requires transnational cooperation and coordination. Early constructive dialogue among orphan drug

  7. Patient-Focused Benefit-Risk Analysis to Inform Regulatory Decisions: The European Union Perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mühlbacher, Axel C; Juhnke, Christin; Beyer, Andrea R; Garner, Sarah

    Regulatory decisions are often based on multiple clinical end points, but the perspectives used to judge the relative importance of those end points are predominantly those of expert decision makers rather than of the patient. However, there is a growing awareness that active patient and public participation can improve decision making, increase acceptance of decisions, and improve adherence to treatments. The assessment of risk versus benefit requires not only information on clinical outcomes but also value judgments about which outcomes are important and whether the potential benefits outweigh the harms. There are a number of mechanisms for capturing the input of patients, and regulatory bodies within the European Union are participating in several initiatives. These can include patients directly participating in the regulatory decision-making process or using information derived from patients in empirical studies as part of the evidence considered. One promising method that is being explored is the elicitation of "patient preferences." Preferences, in this context, refer to the individual's evaluation of health outcomes and can be understood as statements regarding the relative desirability of a range of treatment options, treatment characteristics, and health states. Several methods for preference measurement have been proposed, and pilot studies have been undertaken to use patient preference information in regulatory decision making. This article describes how preferences are currently being considered in the benefit-risk assessment context, and shows how different methods of preference elicitation are used to support decision making within the European context.

  8. Securing public transportation systems an integrated decision analysis framework for the prevention of terrorist attacks as example

    CERN Document Server

    Brauner, Florian

    2017-01-01

    Florian Brauner addresses the risk reduction effects of security measures (SecMe) as well as economic and social effects using terrorist threats in public transportation as use case. SecMe increase the level of security but cause interferences and restrictions for customers (e.g. privacy). This study identifies the interferences and analyzes the acceptance with an empirical survey of customers. A composite indicator for the acceptance of different SecMe is developed and integrated into a risk management framework for multi-criteria decision analysis achieving the right balance of risk reduction, costs, and social acceptance. Contents Assessment of Security Measures for Risk Management Measurement of Objective Effectiveness of Security Measures Against Terrorist Attacks Determination of Subjective Effects of Security Measures (Customer Acceptance Analysis) Cost Analysis of Security Measures Multi-Criteria Decision Support Systems Target Groups Scientists with Interest in Civil Security Research Providers and S...

  9. Surficial Geologic Map of Mesa Verde National Park, Montezuma County, Colorado

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carrara, Paul E.

    2012-01-01

    Mesa Verde National Park in southwestern Colorado was established in 1906 to preserve and protect the artifacts and dwelling sites, including the famous cliff dwellings, of the Ancestral Puebloan people who lived in the area from about A.D. 550 to A.D. 1300. In 1978, the United Nations designated the park as a World Heritage Site. The geology of the park played a key role in the lives of these ancient people. For example, the numerous (approximately 600) cliff dwellings are closely associated with the Cliff House Sandstone of Late Cretaceous age, which weathers to form deep alcoves. In addition, the ancient people farmed the thick, red loess (wind-blown dust) deposits on the mesa tops, which because of its particle size distribution has good moisture retention properties. The soil in this loess cover and the seasonal rains allowed these people to grow their crops (corn, beans, and squash) on the broad mesa tops. Today, geology is still an important concern in the Mesa Verde area because the landscape is susceptible to various forms of mass movement (landslides, debris flows, rockfalls), swelling soils, and flash floods that affect the park's archeological sites and its infrastructure (roads, septic systems, utilities, and building sites). The map, which encompasses an area of about 100 mi2 (260 km2), includes all of Mesa Verde National Park, a small part of the Ute Mountain Indian Reservation that borders the park on its southern and western sides, and some Bureau of Land Management and privately owned land to the north and east. Surficial deposits depicted on the map include: artificial fills, alluvium of small ephemeral streams, alluvium deposited by the Mancos River, residual gravel on high mesas, a combination of alluvial and colluvial deposits, fan deposits, colluvial deposits derived from the Menefee Formation, colluvial deposits derived from the Mancos Shale, rockfall deposits, debris flow deposits, earthflow deposits, translational and rotational landslide

  10. Decision Tree and Texture Analysis for Mapping Debris-Covered Glaciers in the Kangchenjunga Area, Eastern Himalaya

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adina Racoviteanu

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available In this study we use visible, short-wave infrared and thermal Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER data validated with high-resolution Quickbird (QB and Worldview2 (WV2 for mapping debris cover in the eastern Himalaya using two independent approaches: (a a decision tree algorithm, and (b texture analysis. The decision tree algorithm was based on multi-spectral and topographic variables, such as band ratios, surface reflectance, kinetic temperature from ASTER bands 10 and 12, slope angle, and elevation. The decision tree algorithm resulted in 64 km2 classified as debris-covered ice, which represents 11% of the glacierized area. Overall, for ten glacier tongues in the Kangchenjunga area, there was an area difference of 16.2 km2 (25% between the ASTER and the QB areas, with mapping errors mainly due to clouds and shadows. Texture analysis techniques included co-occurrence measures, geostatistics and filtering in spatial/frequency domain. Debris cover had the highest variance of all terrain classes, highest entropy and lowest homogeneity compared to the other classes, for example a mean variance of 15.27 compared to 0 for clouds and 0.06 for clean ice. Results of the texture image for debris-covered areas were comparable with those from the decision tree algorithm, with 8% area difference between the two techniques.

  11. Analysis and Management of Animal Populations: Modeling, Estimation and Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, B.K.; Nichols, J.D.; Conroy, M.J.

    2002-01-01

    This book deals with the processes involved in making informed decisions about the management of animal populations. It covers the modeling of population responses to management actions, the estimation of quantities needed in the modeling effort, and the application of these estimates and models to the development of sound management decisions. The book synthesizes and integrates in a single volume the methods associated with these themes, as they apply to ecological assessment and conservation of animal populations. KEY FEATURES * Integrates population modeling, parameter estimation and * decision-theoretic approaches to management in a single, cohesive framework * Provides authoritative, state-of-the-art descriptions of quantitative * approaches to modeling, estimation and decision-making * Emphasizes the role of mathematical modeling in the conduct of science * and management * Utilizes a unifying biological context, consistent mathematical notation, * and numerous biological examples

  12. Portfolio theory and the alternative decision rule of cost-effectiveness analysis: theoretical and practical considerations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sendi, Pedram; Al, Maiwenn J; Gafni, Amiram; Birch, Stephen

    2004-05-01

    Bridges and Terris (Soc. Sci. Med. (2004)) critique our paper on the alternative decision rule of economic evaluation in the presence of uncertainty and constrained resources within the context of a portfolio of health care programs (Sendi et al. Soc. Sci. Med. 57 (2003) 2207). They argue that by not adopting a formal portfolio theory approach we overlook the optimal solution. We show that these arguments stem from a fundamental misunderstanding of the alternative decision rule of economic evaluation. In particular, the portfolio theory approach advocated by Bridges and Terris is based on the same theoretical assumptions that the alternative decision rule set out to relax. Moreover, Bridges and Terris acknowledge that the proposed portfolio theory approach may not identify the optimal solution to resource allocation problems. Hence, it provides neither theoretical nor practical improvements to the proposed alternative decision rule.

  13. SIR2015-5175, Pahute Mesa-Oasis Valley and surrounding groundwater basins, Nevada and California, version 1.1

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — This vector data set contains polygons representing the Pahute Mesa-Oasis Valley groundwater basin and surrounding groundwater basins in Nevada and California.

  14. The decision to extract: part II. Analysis of clinicians' stated reasons for extraction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baumrind, S; Korn, E L; Boyd, R L; Maxwell, R

    1996-04-01

    In a recently reported study, the pretreatment records of each subject in a randomized clinical trial of 148 patients with Class I and Class II malocclusions presenting for orthodontic treatment were evaluated independently by five experienced clinicians (drawn from a panel of 14). The clinicians displayed a higher incidence of agreement with each other than had been expected with respect to the decision as to whether extraction was indicated in each specific case. To improve our understanding of how clinicians made their decisions on whether to extract or not, the records of a subset of 72 subjects randomly selected from the full sample of 148, have now been examined in greater detail. In 21 of these cases, all five clinicians decided to treat without extraction. Among the remaining 51 cases, there were 202 decisions to extract (31 unanimous decision cases and 20 split decision cases). The clinicians cited a total of 469 reasons to support these decisions. Crowding was cited as the first reason in 49% of decisions to extract, followed by incisor protrusion (14%), need for profile correction (8%), Class II severity (5%), and achievement of a stable result (5%). When all the reasons for extraction in each clinician's decision were considered as a group, crowding was cited in 73% of decisions, incisor protrusion in 35%, need for profile correction in 27%, Class II severity in 15% and posttreatment stability in 9%. Tooth size anomalies, midline deviations, reduced growth potential, severity of overjet, maintenance of existing profile, desire to close the bite, periodontal problems, and anticipation of poor cooperation accounted collectively for 12% of the first reasons and were mentioned in 54% of the decisions, implying that these considerations play a consequential, if secondary, role in the decision-making process. All other reasons taken together were mentioned in fewer than 20% of cases. In this sample at least, clinicians focused heavily on appearance

  15. Numerical and experimental study of the mesa configuration in high-voltage 4H-SiC PiN rectifiers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deng, Xiao-Chuan; Chen, Xi-Xi; Li, Cheng-Zhan; Shen, Hua-Jun; Zhang, Jin-Ping

    2016-08-01

    The effect of the mesa configuration on the reverse breakdown characteristic of a SiC PiN rectifier for high-voltage applications is analyzed in this study. Three geometrical parameters, i.e., mesa height, mesa angle and mesa bottom corner, are investigated by numerical simulation. The simulation results show that a deep mesa height, a small mesa angle and a smooth mesa bottom (without sub-trench) could contribute to a high breakdown voltage due to a smooth and uniform surface electric field distribution. Moreover, an optimized mesa structure without sub-trench (mesa height of 2.2 μm and mesa angle of 20°) is experimentally demonstrated. A maximum reverse blocking voltage of 4 kV and a forward voltage drop of 3.7 V at 100 A/cm2 are obtained from the fabricated diode with a 30-μm thick N- epi-layer, corresponding to 85% of the ideal parallel-plane value. The blocking characteristic as a function of the JTE dose is also discussed for the PiN rectifiers with and without interface charge. Project supported by the State Key Program of the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 61234006), the Open Foundation of the State Key Laboratory of Electronic Thin Films and Integrated Devices, China (Grant No. KFJJ201301), and the National Science and Technology Major Project of the Ministry of Science and Technology, China (Grant No. 2013ZX02305-003).

  16. 决策分析中的数据无量纲化方法比较分析%Comparative analysis of data nondimensionalization in decision analysis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    张晓明

    2012-01-01

    决策分析中多属性决策问题的各属性通常具有不同的量纲,不同量纲的不可比较性给决策带来了困难.对数据进行规范化处理能够实现各属性数据的可综合性与可比性.对决策分析中常用的数据规范化方法进行比较分析,提出在不同应用中对最佳规范化方法的选择,能够使得决策方案更加合理、优化.%The dimensions of different attributes of multiple attribute decision problems in decision analysis is often different.And the incommensurability of different dimension makes decision more difficult.To standardize data for each attribute can make the date be comprehensive and comparative.The comparative analysis of different common data standardized methods in decision analysis is made in this paper,and the best choice of standardization methods in different application is proposed in order to let decision scheme more rational and optimizational.

  17. A Compact Review of Multi-criteria Decision Analysis Uncertainty Techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-02-01

    Evaluation Technique Measuring Attractiveness by a Categorical Based Evaluation Technique ( MACBETH ) is a MCDA technique that uses qualitative judgments...to the creation of the MACBETH method. The key motivation was to enable construction of a value scale without forcing the decision maker to try to...to judgments or constraints that will resolve the inconsistencies. With the inconsistencies resolved, MACBETH then presents to the decision maker

  18. The Resistible Rise of Bayesian Thinking in Management: Historical Lessons From Decision Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Cabantous, L.; Gond, J-P.

    2015-01-01

    This paper draws from a case study of decision analysis—a discipline rooted in Bayesianism aimed at supporting managerial decision making—to inform the current discussion on the adoption of Bayesian modes of thinking in management research and practice. Relying on concepts from the science, technology, and society field of study and actor-network theory, we approach the production of scientific knowledge as a cultural, practical, and material affair. Specifically, we analyze the activities de...

  19. Cavity mode waves during terahertz radiation from rectangular Bi(2)Sr(2)CaCu(2)O(8 + δ) mesas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klemm, Richard A; Laberge, Erica R; Morley, Dustin R; Kashiwagi, Takanari; Tsujimoto, Manabu; Kadowaki, Kazuo

    2011-01-19

    We re-examined the angular dependence of the radiation from the intrinsic Josephson junctions in rectangular mesas of Bi(2)Sr(2)CaCu(2)O(8 + δ), in order to determine if the cavity mode part of the radiation arises from waves across the width w or along the length l of the mesas, associated with 'hot spots' (Wang et al 2010 Phys. Rev. Lett. 105 057002). We derived analytical forms for the angular dependence expected in both cases for a general cavity mode in which the width of the mesa corresponds to an integer multiple of one-half the wavelength of the radiation. Assuming the coherent radiation from the ac Josephson current source and the cavity magnetic surface current density source combine incoherently, fits to the data of Kadowaki et al (2010 J. Phys. Soc. Japan 79 023703) on a mesa with mean l/ω = 5.17 for both wave directions using two models for the incoherent combination were made, which correspond to standing and traveling waves, respectively. The results suggest that the combined output from the uniform ac Josephson current source plus a cavity wave forming along the rectangle length is equally probable as that of the combined output from the uniform ac Josephson current plus a cavity wave across the width. However, for mesas in which nl/2ω is integral, where n is the index of the rectangular TM(z)(n, 0) mode, it is shown that standing cavity mode waves along the length of the mesa do not radiate in the xz plane perpendicular to the length of the mesa, suggesting experiments on such mesas could help to resolve the question.

  20. Cavity mode waves during terahertz radiation from rectangular Bi2Sr2CaCu2O8 + δ mesas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klemm, Richard A.; LaBerge, Erica R.; Morley, Dustin R.; Kashiwagi, Takanari; Tsujimoto, Manabu; Kadowaki, Kazuo

    2011-01-01

    We re-examined the angular dependence of the radiation from the intrinsic Josephson junctions in rectangular mesas of Bi2Sr2CaCu2O8 + δ, in order to determine if the cavity mode part of the radiation arises from waves across the width w or along the length \\ell of the mesas, associated with 'hot spots' (Wang et al 2010 Phys. Rev. Lett. 105 057002). We derived analytical forms for the angular dependence expected in both cases for a general cavity mode in which the width of the mesa corresponds to an integer multiple of one-half the wavelength of the radiation. Assuming the coherent radiation from the ac Josephson current source and the cavity magnetic surface current density source combine incoherently, fits to the data of Kadowaki et al (2010 J. Phys. Soc. Japan 79 023703) on a mesa with mean \\ell /w=5.17 for both wave directions using two models for the incoherent combination were made, which correspond to standing and traveling waves, respectively. The results suggest that the combined output from the uniform ac Josephson current source plus a cavity wave forming along the rectangle length is equally probable as that of the combined output from the uniform ac Josephson current plus a cavity wave across the width. However, for mesas in which n\\ell /2w is integral, where n is the index of the rectangular TMzn, 0 mode, it is shown that standing cavity mode waves along the length of the mesa do not radiate in the xz plane perpendicular to the length of the mesa, suggesting experiments on such mesas could help to resolve the question.

  1. Application of risk-based multiple criteria decision analysis for selection of the best agricultural scenario for effective watershed management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Javidi Sabbaghian, Reza; Zarghami, Mahdi; Nejadhashemi, A Pouyan; Sharifi, Mohammad Bagher; Herman, Matthew R; Daneshvar, Fariborz

    2016-03-01

    Effective watershed management requires the evaluation of agricultural best management practice (BMP) scenarios which carefully consider the relevant environmental, economic, and social criteria involved. In the Multiple Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) process, scenarios are first evaluated and then ranked to determine the most desirable outcome for the particular watershed. The main challenge of this process is the accurate identification of the best solution for the watershed in question, despite the various risk attitudes presented by the associated decision-makers (DMs). This paper introduces a novel approach for implementation of the MCDM process based on a comparative neutral risk/risk-based decision analysis, which results in the selection of the most desirable scenario for use in the entire watershed. At the sub-basin level, each scenario includes multiple BMPs with scores that have been calculated using the criteria derived from two cases of neutral risk and risk-based decision-making. The simple additive weighting (SAW) operator is applied for use in neutral risk decision-making, while the ordered weighted averaging (OWA) and induced OWA (IOWA) operators are effective for risk-based decision-making. At the watershed level, the BMP scores of the sub-basins are aggregated to calculate each scenarios' combined goodness measurements; the most desirable scenario for the entire watershed is then selected based on the combined goodness measurements. Our final results illustrate the type of operator and risk attitudes needed to satisfy the relevant criteria within the number of sub-basins, and how they ultimately affect the final ranking of the given scenarios. The methodology proposed here has been successfully applied to the Honeyoey Creek-Pine Creek watershed in Michigan, USA to evaluate various BMP scenarios and determine the best solution for both the stakeholders and the overall stream health.

  2. Chi-squared Automatic Interaction Detection Decision Tree Analysis of Risk Factors for Infant Anemia in Beijing, China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Fang Ye; Zhi-Hua Chen; Jie Chen; Fang Liu; Yong Zhang; Qin-Ying Fan; Lin Wang

    2016-01-01

    Background:In the past decades,studies on infant anemia have mainly focused on rural areas of China.With the increasing heterogeneity of population in recent years,available information on infant anemia is inconclusive in large cities of China,especially with comparison between native residents and floating population.This population-based cross-sectional study was implemented to determine the anemic status of infants as well as the risk factors in a representative downtown area of Beijing.Methods:As useful methods to build a predictive model,Chi-squared automatic interaction detection (CHAID) decision tree analysis and logistic regression analysis were introduced to explore risk factors of infant anemia.A total of 1091 infants aged 6-12 months together with their parents/caregivers living at Heping Avenue Subdistrict of Beijing were surveyed from January 1,2013 to December 31,2014.Results:The prevalence of anemia was 12.60% with a range of 3.47%-40.00% in different subgroup characteristics.The CHAID decision tree model has demonstrated multilevel interaction among risk factors through stepwise pathways to detect anemia.Besides the three predictors identified by logistic regression model including maternal anemia during pregnancy,exclusive breastfeeding in the first 6 months,and floating population,CHAID decision tree analysis also identified the fourth risk factor,the matemal educational level,with higher overall classification accuracy and larger area below the receiver operating characteristic curve.Conclusions:The infant anemic status in metropolis is complex and should be carefully considered by the basic health care practitioners.CHAID decision tree analysis has demonstrated a better performance in hierarchical analysis of population with great heterogeneity.Risk factors identified by this study might be meaningful in the early detection and prompt treatment of infant anemia in large cities.

  3. Development of a Reference Image Collection Library for Histopathology Image Processing, Analysis and Decision Support Systems Research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kostopoulos, Spiros; Ravazoula, Panagiota; Asvestas, Pantelis; Kalatzis, Ioannis; Xenogiannopoulos, George; Cavouras, Dionisis; Glotsos, Dimitris

    2017-01-12

    Histopathology image processing, analysis and computer-aided diagnosis have been shown as effective assisting tools towards reliable and intra-/inter-observer invariant decisions in traditional pathology. Especially for cancer patients, decisions need to be as accurate as possible in order to increase the probability of optimal treatment planning. In this study, we propose a new image collection library (HICL-Histology Image Collection Library) comprising 3831 histological images of three different diseases, for fostering research in histopathology image processing, analysis and computer-aided diagnosis. Raw data comprised 93, 116 and 55 cases of brain, breast and laryngeal cancer respectively collected from the archives of the University Hospital of Patras, Greece. The 3831 images were generated from the most representative regions of the pathology, specified by an experienced histopathologist. The HICL Image Collection is free for access under an academic license at http://medisp.bme.teiath.gr/hicl/ . Potential exploitations of the proposed library may span over a board spectrum, such as in image processing to improve visualization, in segmentation for nuclei detection, in decision support systems for second opinion consultations, in statistical analysis for investigation of potential correlations between clinical annotations and imaging findings and, generally, in fostering research on histopathology image processing and analysis. To the best of our knowledge, the HICL constitutes the first attempt towards creation of a reference image collection library in the field of traditional histopathology, publicly and freely available to the scientific community.

  4. Effect of methyl salicylate (MeSA), an elicitor on growth, physiology and pathology of resistant and susceptible rice varieties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalaivani, Kandaswamy; Kalaiselvi, Marimuthu Maruthi; Senthil-Nathan, Sengottayan

    2016-01-01

    Methyl salicylate (MeSA) is a volatile organic compound synthesized from salicylic acid (SA) a plant hormone that helps to fight against plant disease. Seed treatment with MeSA, is an encouraging method to the seed industry to produce more growth and yield. The aim of our study is to find out the growth, development and disease tolerance of rice seed treated with different concentrations of MeSA. Also the seed treatments were studied to determine whether they directly influenced seedling emergence and growth in rice (Oryza sativa L) cultivars ‘IR 20, IR 50, IR 64, ASD 16, ASD 19 and ADT 46’ under greenhouse condition. MeSA seed treatments at 25, 50, 75 and 100 mg/L significantly increased seedling emergence. Effects were stronger in IR 50, and IR 64 and the effects were dose dependent, although the relationship between dose and effect was not always linear. MeSA seed treated rice plant against bacterial blight were analyzed. Bacterial blight was more effectively controlled by the seed treated with 100 mg/L than others. These results suggest that seed treatment with MeSA alters plant physiology in ways that may be useful for crop production as well as protection. PMID:27725719

  5. An entropy-based multi-criterion group decision analysis method of selecting the optimum weak-subgrade treatment

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LUO Jun-jun; ZHENG Jun-jie; SUN Ling; ZHANG Shi-biao

    2008-01-01

    Proper treatment of weak subgrade soil is very important to building a highway of good quality. We proposed an entropy-based multi-criterion group decision analysis method for a group of experts to evaluate alternatives of weak subgrade treatment, with an aim to select the optimum technique which is technically, economically and socially viable. We used fuzzy theory to analyze multiple experts' evaluation on various factors of each alterative treatment. Different experts' evaluations are integrated by the group eigenvalue method. An entropy weight is introduced to minimize the negative influences of subjective human factors of experts. The optimum alternative is identified with ideal point discriminant analysis to calculate the distance of each alternative to the ideal point and prioritize all alternatives according to their distances. A case study on a section of the Shiman Expressway verified that the proposed method can give a rational decision on the optimum method of weak subgrade treatment.

  6. Application of probabilistic and decision analysis methods to structural mechanics and materials sciences problems. Volume 1. Planning document

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Garrick, B.J.; Tagart, S.W. Jr. (eds.)

    1984-08-01

    Volume I presents an overview of the EPRI structural reliability research program. First, perspectives on the probabilistic treatment of uncertainty are presented. A brief explanation is given of why decision analysis methods are part of EPRI's structural reliability project, and how the use of such methods to handle uncertainty can improve decision-making in this area. A more detailed discussion of one approach for dealing with uncertainty about event probabilities is also presented. Next, review of probabilistic risk analysis is presented. This review includes a brief history of its development and application, an overview of the methodology involved, the role of structural reliability assessment in providing input to PRAs, and the treatment of uncertainties in that input. A brief discussion of the relationship between PRA and safety goals is also included.

  7. Amatoxin poisoning treatment decision-making: pharmaco-therapeutic clinical strategy assessment using multidimensional multivariate statistic analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poucheret, Patrick; Fons, Françoise; Doré, Jean Christophe; Michelot, Didier; Rapior, Sylvie

    2010-06-15

    Ninety percent of fatal higher fungus poisoning is due to amatoxin-containing mushroom species. In addition to absence of antidote, no chemotherapeutic consensus was reported. The aim of the present study is to perform a retrospective multidimensional multivariate statistic analysis of 2110 amatoxin poisoning clinical cases, in order to optimize therapeutic decision-making. Our results allowed to classify drugs as a function of their influence on one major parameter: patient survival. Active principles were classified as first intention, second intention, adjuvant or controversial pharmaco-therapeutic clinical intervention. We conclude that (1) retrospective multidimensional multivariate statistic analysis of complex clinical dataset might help future therapeutic decision-making and (2) drugs such as silybin, N-acetylcystein and putatively ceftazidime are clearly associated, in amatoxin poisoning context, with higher level of patient survival.

  8. Impact of boron on the step-free area formation on Si(111) mesa structures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Roy Chaudhuri, Ayan, E-mail: chaudhuri@mbe.uni-hannover.de; Osten, H. J.; Fissel, A. [Institute of Electronic Materials and Devices, Leibniz University of Hannover, Schneiderberg 32, D-30167 Hannover (Germany)

    2015-12-28

    We report about the influence of boron (B) on surface morphology of Si layers grown by molecular beam epitaxy on Si(111) mesas. Dimension of step-free mesa areas is reduced in comparison to pristine Si and scales with the B-coverage. This can be explained by a reduced mass transport on the Si surface in the presence of B-induced √3 × √3 surface structure which is due to a reduced Si equilibrium free adatom density. We demonstrate that a suitable combination of initial B coverage and Si layer thickness results in large step free areas and B doping concentration up to 4 × 10{sup 18 }cm{sup −3}.

  9. Imaging of local temperature distributions in mesas of high-Tc superconducting terahertz sources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsujimoto, M.; Kambara, H.; Maeda, Y.; Yoshioka, Y.; Nakagawa, Y.; Kakeya, I.

    2014-12-01

    Stacks of intrinsic Josephson junctions in high-Tc superconductors are a promising source of intense, continuous, and monochromatic terahertz waves. In this paer, we establish a fluorescence-based temperature imaging system to directly image the surface temperature on a Bi2Sr2CaCu2O8+δ mesa sample. Intense terahertz emissions are observed in both high- and low-bias regimes, where the mesa voltage satisfies the cavity resonance condition. In the high- bias regime, the temperature distributions are shown to be inhomogeneous with a considerable temperature rise. In contrast, in the low-bias regime, the distributions are rather uniform and the local temperature is close to the bath temperature over the entire sample.

  10. Geochemical map of the Arnold Mesa Roadless Area, Yavapai County, Arizona

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolfe, Edward W.

    1983-01-01

    The Wilderness Act (Public Law 88-577, September 3, 1964) and related acts require the U.S. Geological Survey and the U.S. Bureau of Mines to survey certain areas on Federal lands to determine their mineral resource potential. Results must be made available to the public and be submitted to the President and the Congress. This report presents the results of a geochemical survey of the Arnold Mesa Roadless Area (U.S. Forest Service number 03092) in the Prescott and Tonto National Forests, Yavapai County, Arizona. The Arnold Mesa Roadless Area was classified as a further planning area during the Second Roadless Area Review and Evaluation (RARE II) by the U.S. Forest Service, January 1979.

  11. Techno-economic analysis and decision making for PHEV benefits to society, consumers, policymakers and automakers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al-Alawi, Baha Mohammed

    Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) are an emerging automotive technology that has the capability to reduce transportation environmental impacts, but at an increased production cost. PHEVs can draw and store energy from an electric grid and consequently show reductions in petroleum consumption, air emissions, ownership costs, and regulation compliance costs, and various other externalities. Decision makers in the policy, consumer, and industry spheres would like to understand the impact of HEV and PHEV technologies on the U.S. vehicle fleets, but to date, only the disciplinary characteristics of PHEVs been considered. The multidisciplinary tradeoffs between vehicle energy sources, policy requirements, market conditions, consumer preferences and technology improvements are not well understood. For example, the results of recent studies have posited the importance of PHEVs to the future US vehicle fleet. No studies have considered the value of PHEVs to automakers and policy makers as a tool for achieving US corporate average fuel economy (CAFE) standards which are planned to double by 2030. Previous studies have demonstrated the cost and benefit of PHEVs but there is no study that comprehensively accounts for the cost and benefits of PHEV to consumers. The diffusion rate of hybrid electric vehicle (HEV) and PHEV technology into the marketplace has been estimated by existing studies using various tools and scenarios, but results show wide variations between studies. There is no comprehensive modeling study that combines policy, consumers, society and automakers in the U.S. new vehicle sales cost and benefits analysis. The aim of this research is to build a potential framework that can simulate and optimize the benefits of PHEVs for a multiplicity of stakeholders. This dissertation describes the results of modeling that integrates the effects of PHEV market penetration on policy, consumer and economic spheres. A model of fleet fuel economy and CAFE compliance for

  12. A simple way to unify multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) and stochastic multicriteria acceptability analysis (SMAA) using a Dirichlet distribution in benefit-risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saint-Hilary, Gaelle; Cadour, Stephanie; Robert, Veronique; Gasparini, Mauro

    2017-02-10

    Quantitative methodologies have been proposed to support decision making in drug development and monitoring. In particular, multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) and stochastic multicriteria acceptability analysis (SMAA) are useful tools to assess the benefit-risk ratio of medicines according to the performances of the treatments on several criteria, accounting for the preferences of the decision makers regarding the relative importance of these criteria. However, even in its probabilistic form, MCDA requires the exact elicitations of the weights of the criteria by the decision makers, which may be difficult to achieve in practice. SMAA allows for more flexibility and can be used with unknown or partially known preferences, but it is less popular due to its increased complexity and the high degree of uncertainty in its results. In this paper, we propose a simple model as a generalization of MCDA and SMAA, by applying a Dirichlet distribution to the weights of the criteria and by making its parameters vary. This unique model permits to fit both MCDA and SMAA, and allows for a more extended exploration of the benefit-risk assessment of treatments. The precision of its results depends on the precision parameter of the Dirichlet distribution, which could be naturally interpreted as the strength of confidence of the decision makers in their elicitation of preferences.

  13. Variation in the annual average radon concentration measured in homes in Mesa County, Colorado

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rood, A.S.; George, J.L.; Langner, G.H. Jr.

    1990-04-01

    The purpose of this study is to examine the variability in the annual average indoor radon concentration. The TMC has been collecting annual average radon data for the past 5 years in 33 residential structures in Mesa County, Colorado. This report is an interim report that presents the data collected up to the present. Currently, the plans are to continue this study in the future. 62 refs., 3 figs., 12 tabs.

  14. Mesa redonda sobre nuevos modelos organizativos en la gestión de proyectos digitales

    OpenAIRE

    Taladriz Mas, Margarita; Magriñá Contreras, Marta; Martín Marichal, Carmen; Cabo Rigol, Mercé; X Workshop Rebiun sobre proyectos digitales. Valencia, 7-8 Octubre de 2010

    2010-01-01

    Mesa redonda dentro del X Workshop Rebiun sobre proyectos digitales, celebrado en Valencia, 7-8 Ocubre de 2010, sobre: Nuevos modelos organizativos en la gestión de proyectos digitales. Moderador: José Manuel Barrueco (UV). Intervienen: Margarita Taladriz Mas(UC3M), Marta Magriñá Contreras (UNIRIOJA), Carmen Martín Marichal (ULPGC) y Mercé Cabo Rigol (UPF).

  15. Analysis of Phase Transition in Traffic Flow based on a New Model of Driving Decision

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peng, Yu; Shang, Hua-Yan; Lu, Hua-Pu

    2011-07-01

    Different driving decisions will cause different processes of phase transition in traffic flow. To reveal the inner mechanism, this paper built a new cellular automaton (CA) model, based on the driving decision (DD). In the DD model, a driver's decision is divided into three stages: decision-making, action, and result. The acceleration is taken as a decision variable and three core factors, i.e. distance between adjacent vehicles, their own velocity, and the preceding vehicle's velocity, are considered. Simulation results show that the DD model can simulate the synchronized flow effectively and describe the phase transition in traffic flow well. Further analyses illustrate that various density will cause the phase transition and the random probability will impact the process. Compared with the traditional NaSch model, the DD model considered the preceding vehicle's velocity, the deceleration limitation, and a safe distance, so it can depict closer to the driver preferences on pursuing safety, stability and fuel-saving and has strong theoretical innovation for future studies.

  16. Analysis of Phase Transition in Traffic Flow based on a New Model of Driving Decision

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    PENG Yu; SHANG Hua-Yan; LU Hua-Pu

    2011-01-01

    Different driving decisions will cause different processes of phase transition in traffic flow. To reveal the inner mechanism, this paper built a new cellular automaton (CA) model, based on the driving decision (DD). In the DD model, a driver's decision is divided into three stages: decision-making, action, and result. The acceleration is taken as a decision variable and three core factors, i.e. distance between adjacent vehicles, their own velocity, and the preceding vehicle's velocity, are considered. Simulation results show that the DD model can simulate the synchronized flow effectively and describe the phase transition in traffic flow well. Further analyses illustrate that various density will cause the phase transition and the random probability will impact the process. Compared with the traditional NaSch model, the DD model considered the preceding vehicle's velocity, the deceleration limitation, and a safe distance, so it can depict closer to the driver preferences on pursuing safety, stability and fuel-saving and has strong theoretical innovation for future studies.

  17. How robust is a robust policy? A comparative analysis of alternative robustness metrics for supporting robust decision analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwakkel, Jan; Haasnoot, Marjolijn

    2015-04-01

    performance of a candidate plan with the performance of other candidate plans across a large ensemble of plausible futures. Initial results suggest that the simplest satisficing metric, inspired by the signal to noise ratio, results in very risk averse solutions. Other satisficing metrics, which handle the average performance and the dispersion around the average separately, provide substantial additional insights into the trade off between the average performance, and the dispersion around this average. In contrast, the regret-based metrics enhance insight into the relative merits of candidate plans, while being less clear on the average performance or the dispersion around this performance. These results suggest that it is beneficial to use multiple robustness metrics when doing a robust decision analysis study. Haasnoot, M., J. H. Kwakkel, W. E. Walker and J. Ter Maat (2013). "Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways: A New Method for Crafting Robust Decisions for a Deeply Uncertain World." Global Environmental Change 23(2): 485-498. Kwakkel, J. H., M. Haasnoot and W. E. Walker (2014). "Developing Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways: A computer-assisted approach for developing adaptive strategies for a deeply uncertain world." Climatic Change.

  18. Cu(In,Ga)Se{sub 2} mesa diodes for the study of edge recombination

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Paire, Myriam, E-mail: myriam.paire@edf.fr [Institute of Research and Development on Photovoltaic Energy, 6 Quai Watier, 78401 Chatou (France); Jean, Cyril; Lombez, Laurent [Institute of Research and Development on Photovoltaic Energy, 6 Quai Watier, 78401 Chatou (France); Collin, Stéphane; Pelouard, Jean-Luc [Laboratoire de Photonique et de Nanostructures, Route de Nozay, 91460 Marcoussis (France); Gérard, Isabelle [Institut Lavoisier de Versailles, UMR, 8180 Versailles (France); Guillemoles, Jean-François; Lincot, Daniel [Institute of Research and Development on Photovoltaic Energy, 6 Quai Watier, 78401 Chatou (France)

    2015-05-01

    The concentrating approach was applied on Cu(In,Ga)Se{sub 2} to develop photovoltaic devices with increased efficiency using less rare materials. To withstand the operating conditions, Cu(In,Ga)Se{sub 2} devices are miniaturized. Compared to previous generations of microcells, with only window layer structuration, microcells with a mesa design are fabricated. These microcells are created by etching ZnO, CdS and Cu(In,Ga)Se{sub 2} layers. The crucial issue addressed in this study is the electrical behavior of the device edges, to determine if microcells suffer from perimeter recombination. We analyze the influence of different etching techniques on the edge recombination signal. It is found that bromine etch result in well passivated surfaces, and devices as small as 50 × 50 μm do not experience edge recombination efficiency limitations. This behavior is remarkable compared to that of the microcells made of crystalline materials. For devices where the edges are deteriorated by a chemical post-treatment, a quasi-shunting signal coming from the edges is seen. We tested these microcells under concentrated illumination and important open-circuit voltage and efficiency gains are seen. - Highlights: • Cu(In,Ga)Se{sub 2} mesa diodes are fabricated by chemical etching. • Opto-electronic measurements show that mesa edges are passivated. • Open-circuit voltage over 950 mV is obtained at high concentration on Cu(In,Ga)Se{sub 2} micromesa diodes.

  19. The benefits of global scaling in multi-criteria decision analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jamie P. Monat

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available When there are multiple competing objectives in a decision-making process, Multi-Attribute Choice scoring models are excellent tools, permitting the incorporation of both subjective and objective attributes. However, their accuracy depends upon the subjective techniques used to construct the attribute scales and their concomitant weights. Conventional techniques using local scales tend to overemphasize small differences in attribute measures, which may yield erroneous conclusions. The Range Sensitivity Principle (RSP is often invoked to adjust attribute weights when local scales are used. In practice, however, decision makers often do not follow the prescriptions of the Range Sensitivity Principle and under-adjust the weights, resulting in potentially poor decisions. Examples are discussed as is a proposed solution: the use of global scales instead of local scales.

  20. Minimization of Decision Tree Average Depth for Decision Tables with Many-valued Decisions

    KAUST Repository

    Azad, Mohammad

    2014-09-13

    The paper is devoted to the analysis of greedy algorithms for the minimization of average depth of decision trees for decision tables such that each row is labeled with a set of decisions. The goal is to find one decision from the set of decisions. When we compare with the optimal result obtained from dynamic programming algorithm, we found some greedy algorithms produces results which are close to the optimal result for the minimization of average depth of decision trees.

  1. Assessment of providers' referral decisions in Rural Burkina Faso: a retrospective analysis of medical records

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ilboudo Tegawende

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background A well-functioning referral system is fundamental to primary health care delivery. Understanding the providers' referral decision-making process becomes critical. This study's aim was to assess the correctness of diagnoses and appropriateness of the providers' referral decisions from health centers (HCs to district hospitals (DHs among patients with severe malaria and pneumonia. Methods A record review of twelve months of consultations was conducted covering eight randomly selected HCs to identify severe malaria (SM cases among children under five and pneumonia cases among adults. The correctness of the diagnosis and appropriateness of providers' referral decisions were determined using the National Clinical Guidebook as a 'gold standard'. Results Among the 457 SM cases affecting children under five, only 66 cases (14.4% were correctly diagnosed and of those 66 correctly diagnosed cases, 40 cases (60.6% received an appropriate referral decision from their providers. Within these 66 correctly diagnosed SM cases, only 60.6% were appropriately referred. Among the adult pneumonia cases, 5.9% (79/1331 of the diagnoses were correctly diagnosed; however, the appropriateness rate of the provider's referral decision was 98.7% (78/79. There was only one case that should not have been referred but was referred. Conclusions The adherence to the National Guidelines among the health center providers when making a diagnosis was low for both severe malaria cases and pneumonia cases. The appropriateness of the referral decisions was particularly poor for children with severe malaria. Health center providers need to be better trained in the diagnostic process and in disease management in order to improve the performance of the referral system in rural Burkina Faso.

  2. Analysis of Decision Making and Incentives in Danish Green Web Applications

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Scheele, Christian Elling

    2013-01-01

    , there is little research documenting how such applications actually motivate behaviour change. There is a need for a better understanding of how such applications work and whether they are effective. This paper addresses the first question by demonstrating how three Danish green web applications employ different...... normative or behavioural gains. The third approach is based on a socio-psychological decision model in which values, attitudes and norms affect the choices we make. All three theoretical approaches aim at explaining decision-making in the context of energy consumption....

  3. Retrospective value analysis of decision support benefits from a production planning system for a brewery

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H.W. Ittmann

    2003-12-01

    Full Text Available A decision support system for production planning in a brewing company was developed to assist with the planning of brewing, packaging and distribution of beer and to minimise production costs. Having been in operation for some time, the system has changed and adapted in a very dynamic environment. The system's present form and current use are discussed. Initial management approval for system development was based on faith rather than proper cost-benefit and value analyses. This paper aims at retrospectively highlighting these values and benefits with regard to supporting decision-making in the company.

  4. Analysis of the impact of recreational trail usage for prioritising management decisions: a regression tree approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tomczyk, Aleksandra; Ewertowski, Marek; White, Piran; Kasprzak, Leszek

    2016-04-01

    The dual role of many Protected Natural Areas in providing benefits for both conservation and recreation poses challenges for management. Although recreation-based damage to ecosystems can occur very quickly, restoration can take many years. The protection of conservation interests at the same as providing for recreation requires decisions to be made about how to prioritise and direct management actions. Trails are commonly used to divert visitors from the most important areas of a site, but high visitor pressure can lead to increases in trail width and a concomitant increase in soil erosion. Here we use detailed field data on condition of recreational trails in Gorce National Park, Poland, as the basis for a regression tree analysis to determine the factors influencing trail deterioration, and link specific trail impacts with environmental, use related and managerial factors. We distinguished 12 types of trails, characterised by four levels of degradation: (1) trails with an acceptable level of degradation; (2) threatened trails; (3) damaged trails; and (4) heavily damaged trails. Damaged trails were the most vulnerable of all trails and should be prioritised for appropriate conservation and restoration. We also proposed five types of monitoring of recreational trail conditions: (1) rapid inventory of negative impacts; (2) monitoring visitor numbers and variation in type of use; (3) change-oriented monitoring focusing on sections of trail which were subjected to changes in type or level of use or subjected to extreme weather events; (4) monitoring of dynamics of trail conditions; and (5) full assessment of trail conditions, to be carried out every 10-15 years. The application of the proposed framework can enhance the ability of Park managers to prioritise their trail management activities, enhancing trail conditions and visitor safety, while minimising adverse impacts on the conservation value of the ecosystem. A.M.T. was supported by the Polish Ministry of

  5. Applying of Decision Tree Analysis to Risk Factors Associated with Pressure Ulcers in Long-Term Care Facilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moon, Mikyung

    2017-01-01

    Objectives The purpose of this study was to use decision tree analysis to explore the factors associated with pressure ulcers (PUs) among elderly people admitted to Korean long-term care facilities. Methods The data were extracted from the 2014 National Inpatient Sample (NIS)—data of Health Insurance Review and Assessment Service (HIRA). A MapReduce-based program was implemented to join and filter 5 tables of the NIS. The outcome predicted by the decision tree model was the prevalence of PUs as defined by the Korean Standard Classification of Disease-7 (KCD-7; code L89*). Using R 3.3.1, a decision tree was generated with the finalized 15,856 cases and 830 variables. Results The decision tree displayed 15 subgroups with 8 variables showing 0.804 accuracy, 0.820 sensitivity, and 0.787 specificity. The most significant primary predictor of PUs was length of stay less than 0.5 day. Other predictors were the presence of an infectious wound dressing, followed by having diagnoses numbering less than 3.5 and the presence of a simple dressing. Among diagnoses, “injuries to the hip and thigh” was the top predictor ranking 5th overall. Total hospital cost exceeding 2,200,000 Korean won (US $2,000) rounded out the top 7. Conclusions These results support previous studies that showed length of stay, comorbidity, and total hospital cost were associated with PUs. Moreover, wound dressings were commonly used to treat PUs. They also show that machine learning, such as a decision tree, could effectively predict PUs using big data. PMID:28261530

  6. Effects of Social Psychological Phenomena on School Psychologists' Ethical Decision-Making: A Preliminary Empirical Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klose, Laurie McGarry; Lasser, Jon; Reardon, Robert F.

    2012-01-01

    This preliminary, exploratory study examines the impact of select social psychological phenomena on school-based ethical decision-making of school psychologists. Responses to vignettes and hypothetical statements reflecting several social psychological phenomena were collected from 106 practicing school psychologists. Participants were asked to…

  7. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF FUZZY METAGRAPH BASED DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM FOR CAPITAL MARKET

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anbalagan Thirunavukarasu

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This study proposes a Fuzzy Metagraph based Decision Support System (DSS for short term and long term investment in share market. This rule base decision system will help traders to make correct decision at very low risk. Relative Strength Index (RSI, Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD and WILLIAM- %R are some of the Technical Indicators which are used as input to train the system which is integrated with Fuzzy Metagraph. This approach of incorporating Fuzzy Metagraph with RSI, MACD and WILLIAM-%R would be a new attempt in decision making on share market investment. Stocks listed in Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE in India are used to evaluate the performance of the system. The results obtained from the proposed Fuzzy Metagraph based model are found to be satisfactory with very low risk. Three most used technical indicators MACD, RSI and WILLIAM-%R integrated with Fuzzy Metagraph are used to support the system. This method reduces the risk factor considerably for both short term and long term investors.

  8. A Bayesian analysis of human decision-making on bandit problems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Steyvers, M.; Lee, M.D.; Wagenmakers, E.-J.

    2009-01-01

    The bandit problem is a dynamic decision-making task that is simply described, well-suited to controlled laboratory study, and representative of a broad class of real-world problems. In bandit problems, people must choose between a set of alternatives, each with different unknown reward rates, to ma

  9. Analysis of the decision-making process leading to appendectomy: a grounded theory study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larsson, Gerry; Weibull, Henrik; Larsson, Bodil Wilde

    2004-11-01

    The aim was to develop a theoretical understanding of the decision-making process leading to appendectomy. A qualitative interview study was performed in the grounded theory tradition using the constant comparative method to analyze data. The study setting was one county hospital and two local hospitals in Sweden, where 11 surgeons and 15 surgical nurses were interviewed. A model was developed which suggests that surgeons' decision making regarding appendectomy is formed by the interplay between their medical assessment of the patient's condition and a set of contextual characteristics. The latter consist of three interacting factors: (1) organizational conditions, (2) the professional actors' individual characteristics and interaction, and (3) the personal characteristics of the patient and his or her family or relatives. In case the outcome of medical assessment is ambiguous, the risk evaluation and final decision will be influenced by an interaction of the contextual characteristics. It was concluded that, compared to existing, rational models of decision making, the model presented identified potentially important contextual characteristics and an outline on when they come into play.

  10. A Qualitative Analysis of Parental Decision-Making in Regards to Homeschooling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campbell, Pamela Lou Rogers

    2012-01-01

    Researchers have spent a relatively small amount of time focusing on homeschooling. The few studies which have been completed regarding homeschooling have skirted the question of the decision-making process taken by parents as they choose to begin or discontinue homeschooling. The void in the academic knowledge regarding this growing trend in…

  11. Discrimination against Religious Viewpoints Prohibited in Public Schools: An Analysis of the Lamb's Chapel Decision.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schimmel, David

    1994-01-01

    In "Lambs Chapel," the Supreme Court struck down a complete prohibition against afterhours use of public schools by religious groups. Summarizes lower court decisions, and then the opinions of Justices White, Scalia, and Kennedy. Examines the Court's consensus about protecting religious perspectives under the Free Speech Clause and the…

  12. Living renal donors: optimizing the imaging strategy--decision- and cost-effectiveness analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Y.S. Liem (Ylian Serina); M.C.J.M. Kock (Marc); W. Weimar (Willem); K. Visser (Karen); M.G.M. Hunink (Myriam); J.N.M. IJzermans (Jan)

    2003-01-01

    textabstractPURPOSE: To determine the most cost-effective strategy for preoperative imaging performed in potential living renal donors. MATERIALS AND METHODS: In a decision-analytic model, the societal cost-effectiveness of digital subtraction angiography (DSA), gadolinium-enhanced

  13. Career Decision Self-Efficacy Scale-Short Form: A Rasch Analysis of the Portuguese Version

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miguel, Jose P.; Silva, Jose T.; Prieto, Gerardo

    2013-01-01

    The present study analyzes the psychometric properties of the Career Decision Self-Efficacy Scale-Short Form (CDSE-SF) in a sample of Portuguese secondary education students using the Rasch model. The results indicate that the 25 items of the CDSE-SF are well fitted to a latent unidimensional structure, as required by Rasch modeling. The response…

  14. Analysis of Publication Decisions for "Journal of Research in Music Education" Manuscripts (2009-2014)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sims, Wendy L.; Lordo, Jackie; Phelps, Cynthia Williams

    2016-01-01

    The primary purpose of this study was to investigate characteristics of manuscripts submitted to the "Journal of Research in Music Education" (JRME) representing various research methodologies. A database was compiled comprising all manuscripts that received a publication decision from February 2009 through March 2014 (N = 506). Only…

  15. Prospective Analysis and Establishing Substantive Truth in Review of Merger Decisions in Court

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gerbrandy, Anna

    2014-01-01

    In judicial review of decisions of administrative authorities courts generally aim towards grounding a judgment on substantively true facts. Such a substantive truth is usually understood as meaning ’that which happened’. But how can true facts be established if the facts have not yet occurred and w

  16. An Evaluation of Feral Cat Management Options Using a Decision Analysis Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kerrie Anne T. Loyd

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available The feral domestic cat (Felis catus is a predatory invasive species with documented negative effects on native wildlife. The issue of appropriate and acceptable feral cat management is a matter of contentious debate in cities and states across the United States due to concerns for wildlife conservation, cat welfare, and public health. Common management strategies include: Trap-Neuter-Release, Trap-Neuter-Release with removal of kittens for adoption and Trap-Euthanize. Very little empirical evidence exists relevant to the efficacy of alternative options and a model-based approach is needed to predict population response and extend calculations to impact on wildlife. We have created a structured decision support model representing multiple stakeholder groups to facilitate the coordinated management of feral cats. We used a probabilistic graphical model (a Bayesian Belief Network to evaluate and rank alternative management decisions according to efficacy, societal preferences, and cost. Our model predicts that Trap-Neuter-Release strategies would be optimal management decisions for small local populations of less than fifty cats while Trap-Euthanize would be the optimal management decision for populations greater than 50 cats. Removal is predicted to reduce feral cat populations quickly and prevent cats from taking a large number of wildlife prey.

  17. Analysis of the Construct Validity and Measurement Invariance of the Career Decision Self-Efficacy Scale

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Makransky, Guido; Rogers, Mary E.; Creed, Peter E.

    2015-01-01

    The Career Decision Self-Efficacy Scale – Short Form (CDSE-SF) is one of the most frequently used instruments to assess individual levels of career-related self-efficacy. The present study used the partial credit model within the framework of item response theory to examine the content, structural...

  18. A Decision Analysis Framework for Evaluation of Helmet Mounted Display Alternatives for Fighter Aircraft

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-12-26

    platform. Based on the senior decision maker preferences and available system data, Alternative 1 - Scorpion Helmet Mounted Cueing System, scored 0.481... Scorpion Helmet Mounted Cueing System ............................................................ 89 viii Joint Helmet Mounted Cueing System (JHMCS...Alternative 1- Scorpion (Thales Visionix Technical Overview).................... 89 Figure 33 : Alternative 2 - JHMCS

  19. Antecedents and Consequences of Retirement Planning and Decision-Making: A Meta-Analysis and Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Topa, Gabriela; Moriano, Juan Antonio; Depolo, Marco; Alcover, Carlos-Maria; Morales, J. Francisco

    2009-01-01

    In this study, meta-analytic procedures were used to examine the relationships between retirement planning, retirement decision and their antecedent and consequences. Our review of the literature generated 341 independent samples obtained from 99 primary studies with 188,222 participants. A small effect size (ES) for antecedents of retirement…

  20. Value of ovarian reserve testing before IVF: a clinical decision analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    B.W. Mol; T.E.M. Verhagen; D.J. Hendriks; J.A. Collins; A. Coomarasamy; B.C. Opmeer; F.J. Broekmans

    2006-01-01

    BACKGROUND: To assess the value of testing for ovarian reserve prior to a first cycle IVF incorporating patient and doctor valuation of mismatches between test results and treatment outcome. METHODS: A decision model was developed for couples who were considering participation in an IVF programme. T