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Sample records for analysis mesa decision

  1. Overview of the Multiscale Epidemiologic/Economic Simulation and Analysis (MESA) Decision Support System

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Speck, D E

    2008-04-28

    The Multiscale Epidemiologic/Economic Simulation and Analysis (MESA) Decision Support System (DSS) is the product of investments that began in FY05 by the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Science and Technology Directorate and continue today with joint funding by both DHS and the US Department of Agriculture (USDA). The DSS consists of a coupled epidemiologic/economic model, a standalone graphical user interface (GUI) that supports both model setup and post-analysis, and a Scenario Bank archive to store all content related to foreign animal disease (FAD) studies. The MESA epi model is an object-oriented, agent-based, stochastic, spatio-temporal simulator that parametrically models FAD outbreaks and response strategies from initial disease introduction to conclusion over local, regional, and national scales. Through its output database, the epi model couples to an economic model that calculates farm-level impacts from animal infections, responsive control strategies and loss of trade. The MESA architecture contains a variety of internal models that implement the major components of the epi simulation, including disease introduction, intra-herd spread, inter-herd spread (direct and indirect), detection, and various control strategies (movement restrictions, culling, vaccination) in a highly configurable and extensible fashion. MESA development was originally focused to support investigations into the economic and agricultural industry impacts associated with Foot-and-Mouth Disease (FMD outbreaks). However, it has been adapted to other FADs such has Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI), Classical Swine Fever (CSF) and Exotic Newcastle Disease (END). The MESA model is highly parameterized and employs an extensible architecture that permits straightforward addition of new component models (e.g., alternative disease spread approaches) when necessary. Since its inception, MESA has been developed with a requirement to enable simulation of the very large scale

  2. Analysis of the electrically forced vibrations of piezoelectric mesa resonators

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    He Hui-Jing; Nie Guo-Quan; Liu Jin-Xi; Yang Jia-Shi

    2013-01-01

    We study the electrically forced thickness-shear and thickness-twist vibrations of stepped thickness piezoelectric plate mesa resonators made of polarized ceramics or 6-mm class crystals.A theoretical analysis based on the theory of piezoelectricity is performed,and an analytical solution is obtained using the trigonometric series.The electrical admittance,resonant frequencies,and mode shapes are calculated,and strong energy trapping of the modes is observed.Their dependence on the geometric parameters of the resonator is also examined.

  3. Marine Ecosystems Analysis (MESA) Program, New York Bight Surficial Sediment Analyses

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Marine Ecosystems Analysis (MESA) Program, New York Bight Study was funded by NOAA and the Bureau of Land Management (BLM). The Atlas was a historical...

  4. Analysis of Well ER-EC-5 Testing, Western Pahute Mesa-Oasis Valley FY 2000 Testing Program

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2002-09-30

    This report documents the analysis of the data collected for Well ER-EC-5 during the Western Pahute Mesa - Oasis Valley (WPM-OV) well development and testing program that was conducted during fiscal year (FY) 2000. The data collection for that program is documented in Appendix A, Western Pahute Mesa - Oasis Valley, Well ER-EC-5 Data Report for Development and Hydraulic Testing.

  5. Analysis of Well ER-EC-4 Testing, Western Pahute Mesa-Oasis Valley FY 2000 Testing Program

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2002-09-30

    This report documents the analysis of the data collected for Well ER-EC-4 during the Western Pahute Mesa-Oasis Valley (WPM-OV) well development and testing program that was conducted during fiscal year (FY) 2000. The data collection for that program is documented in Appendix A, Western Pahute Mesa - Oasis Valley, Well ER-EC-4 Data Report for Development and Hydraulic Testing.

  6. Analysis of well ER-18-2 testing, Western Pahute Mesa - Oasis Valley FY 2000 testing program

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2002-09-30

    This report documents the analysis of the data collected for Well ER-18-2 during the Western Pahute Mesa - Oasis Valley (WPM-OV) well development and testing program that was conducted during fiscal year (FY) 2000. The data collection for that program is documented in Appendix A, Western Pahute Mesa - Oasis Valley, Well ER-18-2 Data Report for Development and Hydraulic Testing.

  7. Analysis of Well ER-EC-6 Testing, Western Pahute Mesa - Oasis Valley FY 2000 Testing Program

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2002-09-30

    This report documents the analysis of the data collected for Well ER-EC-6 during the Western Pahute Mesa-Oasis Valley (WPM-OV) well development and testing program that was conducted during fiscal year (FY) 2000. The data collection for that program is documented in Appendix A, Western Pahute Mesa-Oasis Valley, Well ER-EC-6 Data Report for Development and Hydraulic Testing.

  8. Analysis of Well ER-EC-8 testing, Western Pahute Mesa-Oasis Valley FY 2000 testing program

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2002-09-30

    This report documents the analysis of the data collected for Well ER-EC-8 during the Western Pahute Mesa - Oasis Valley (WPM-OV) well development and testing program that was conducted during fiscal year (FY) 2000. The data collection for that program is documented in Appendix A, Western Pahute Mesa-Oasis Valley, Well ER-EC-8 Data Report for development and Hydraulic Testing.

  9. Analysis of Well ER-EC-2a Testing, Western Pahute Mesa-Oasis Valley FY 2000 Testing Program

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2002-09-30

    This report documents the analysis of the data collected for Well ER-EC-2a during the Western Pahute Mesa - Oasis Valley (WPM-OV) well development and testing program that was conducted during fiscal year (FY) 2000. The data collection for that program is documented in Appendix A, Western Pahute Mesa - Oasis Valley, Well ER-EC-2a Data Report for Development and Hydraulic Testing.

  10. Analysis of Well ER-EC-7 Testing, Western Pahute Mesa - Oasis Valley FY 2000 Testing Program

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2002-09-30

    This report documents the analysis of the data collected for Well ER-EC-7 during the Western Pahute Mesa - Oasis Valley (WPM-OV) well development and testing program that was conducted during fiscal year (FY) 2000. The data collection for that program was documented in Appendix A, Western Pahute Mesa - Oasis Valley, Well ER-EC-7 Data Report for Development and Hydraulic Testing.

  11. Analysis of Well ER-EC-1 Testing, Western Pahute Mesa-Oasis Valley FY 2000 Testing Program

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2002-09-30

    This report documents the analysis of the data collected for Well ER-EC-1 during the Western Pahute Mesa - Oasis Valley (WPM-OV) well development and testing program that was conducted during fiscal year (FY) 2000. The data collection for that program is documented in Appendix A, Western Pahute Mesa - Oasis Valley, Well ER-EC-1 Data Report for Development and Hydraulic Testing.

  12. Mesa antivibraciones

    OpenAIRE

    Moreno Vidorreta, Iván

    2010-01-01

    El objeto de este proyecto es el diseño y la construcción de una mesa antivibraciones. Las vibraciones (ruido) provienen de la tierra o de vibraciones sísmicas y existen en todos los ambientes del mundo. Este ruido tiene varias fuentes: las olas rompiendo en las costas costeras, la rutina constante de las placas tectónicas, el viento sopla los árboles y edificios, de las fuentes artificiales, como maquinaria, sistemas de climatización, el tráfico de la calle e incluso la ...

  13. Evolutionary Analysis of Gaseous Sub-Neptune-Mass Planets with MESA

    CERN Document Server

    Chen, Howard

    2016-01-01

    Sub-Neptune-sized exoplanets represent one of the most common types of planets in the Milky Way, yet many of their properties are unknown. Here, we present a prescription to adapt the capabilities of the stellar evolution toolkit Modules for Experiments in Stellar Astrophysics (MESA) to model sub-Neptune mass planets with H/He envelopes. With the addition of routines treating the planet core luminosity, heavy element enrichment, atmospheric boundary condition, and mass loss due to hydrodynamic winds, the evolutionary pathways of planets with diverse starting conditions are more accurately constrained. Using these dynamical models, we construct mass-composition relationships of planets from 1 to 400 $M_{\\oplus}$ and investigate how mass-loss impacts their composition and evolution history. We demonstrate that planet radii are typically insensitive to the evolution pathway that brought the planet to its instantaneous mass, composition and age, with variations from hysteresis. We find that planet envelope mass l...

  14. Value of information analysis for Corrective Action Unit Nos. 101 and 102: Central and western Pahute Mesa, Nevada Test Site, Nevada

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1998-09-01

    The purpose of this report is to describe the basis for and present the results of a value of information analysis (VOIA) for the Pahute Mesa underground test area of the Nevada Test Site (NTS), one of several areas of the Nevada Test Site used for underground nuclear testing in the past. The value of information analysis was used to evaluate and compare potential characterization options at the Pahute Mesa underground test area for site remediation purposes. Thirty six characterization options were evaluated, ranging from a single, inexpensive study using existing data and intended to address a single question or uncertainty, to a forty-million-dollar suite of activities designed to collect and analyze new information to address multiple uncertainties. The characterization options were compared and ranked based on how effective the experts though the information collection would be in reducing uncertainties, how this effected the distance to contaminant boundary, and the cost of the option.

  15. Value of information analysis for Corrective Action Unit Nos. 101 and 102: Central and western Pahute Mesa, Nevada Test Site, Nevada

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The purpose of this report is to describe the basis for and present the results of a value of information analysis (VOIA) for the Pahute Mesa underground test area of the Nevada Test Site (NTS), one of several areas of the Nevada Test Site used for underground nuclear testing in the past. The value of information analysis was used to evaluate and compare potential characterization options at the Pahute Mesa underground test area for site remediation purposes. Thirty six characterization options were evaluated, ranging from a single, inexpensive study using existing data and intended to address a single question or uncertainty, to a forty-million-dollar suite of activities designed to collect and analyze new information to address multiple uncertainties. The characterization options were compared and ranked based on how effective the experts though the information collection would be in reducing uncertainties, how this effected the distance to contaminant boundary, and the cost of the option

  16. Anniversary Article: Decision Analysis in Management Science

    OpenAIRE

    Smith, James E; Detlof von Winterfeldt

    2004-01-01

    As part of the 50th anniversary of Management Science, the journal is publishing articles that reflect on the past, present, and future of the various subfields the journal represents. In this article, we consider decision analysis research as it has appeared in Management Science. After reviewing the foundations of decision analysis and the history of the journal's decision analysis department, we review a number of key developments in decision analysis research that have appeared in Managem...

  17. Analysis of 2009 International Energy Conservation Code Requirements for Residential Buildings in Mesa, Arizona

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lucas, Robert G.

    2011-03-31

    The 2009 International Energy Conservation Code (IECC) contains several major improvements in energy efficiency over the 2006 IECC and the 2003 IECC. The notable changes are: (1) Improved duct sealing verified by testing the duct system; (2) Increased duct insulation; (3) Improvement of window U-factors from 0.40 to 0.35; and (4) Efficient lighting requirements. An analysis of these changes resulted in estimated annual energy cost savings of $145 a year for an average new house compared to the 2003 IECC. This energy cost saving decreases to $125 a year for the 2009 IECC compared to the 2006 IECC. Construction cost increases (per home) for complying with the 2009 IECC are estimated at $1256 relative to the 2003 IECC and $800 for 2006 IECC. Home owners will experience an annual cost savings of about $80 a year by complying with the 2009 IECC because reduction to energy bills will more than compensate for increased mortgage payments and other costs.

  18. Decision strategy research: system analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carle, B

    2000-07-01

    The objective of SCK-CEN's R and D programme on decision strategies is (1) to develop theories, methods and software tools which help decision makers shape, analyse and understand their decisions; (2) to study group processes in decision making; (3) to apply theories, methods and tools in a context related to nuclear emergency preparedness and more generally to support in a context dealing with ionising radiation; (4) to increase SCK-CEN's knowledge on general emergency preparedness and to introduce SCK-CEN staff to computer supported decision techniques. Ongoing R and D has two components: (1) the study of the use of information and knowledge transfer in group decision processes, and more specific studying important factors when computers are used as information source and communication tool; and (2) the study of preference modelling individually and during group decision processes. Principal achievements in 1999 are described.

  19. TYBO/BENHAM: Model Analysis of Groundwater Flow and Radionuclide Migration from Underground Nuclear Tests in Southwestern Pahute Mesa, Nevada

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Andrew Wolfsberg; Lee Glascoe; Guoping Lu; Alyssa Olson; Peter Lichtner; Maureen McGraw; Terry Cherry; Guy Roemer

    2002-09-01

    Recent field studies have led to the discovery of trace quantities of plutonium originating from the BENHAM underground nuclear test in two groundwater observation wells on Pahute Mesa at the Nevada Test Site. These observation wells are located 1.3 km from the BENHAM underground nuclear test and approximately 300 m from the TYBO underground nuclear test. In addition to plutonium, several other conservative (e.g. tritium) and reactive (e.g. cesium) radionuclides were found in both observation wells. The highest radionuclide concentrations were found in a well sampling a welded tuff aquifer more than 500m above the BENHAM emplacement depth. These measurements have prompted additional investigations to ascertain the mechanisms, processes, and conditions affecting subsurface radionuclide transport in Pahute Mesa groundwater. This report describes an integrated modeling approach used to simulate groundwater flow, radionuclide source release, and radionuclide transport near the BENHAM and TYBO underground nuclear tests on Pahute Mesa. The components of the model include a flow model at a scale large enough to encompass many wells for calibration, a source-term model capable of predicting radionuclide releases to aquifers following complex processes associated with nonisothermal flow and glass dissolution, and site-scale transport models that consider migration of solutes and colloids in fractured volcanic rock. Although multiple modeling components contribute to the methodology presented in this report, they are coupled and yield results consistent with laboratory and field observations. Additionally, sensitivity analyses are conducted to provide insight into the relative importance of uncertainty ranges in the transport parameters.

  20. Probabilistic Analysis in Management Decision Making

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Delmar, M. V.; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    1992-01-01

    The target group in this paper is people concerned with mathematical economic decision theory. It is shown how the numerically effective First Order Reliability Methods (FORM) can be used in rational management decision making, where some parameters in the applied decision basis are uncertainty...... quantities. The uncertainties are taken into account consistently and the decision analysis is based on the general decision theory in combination with reliability and optimization theory. Examples are shown where the described technique is used and some general conclusion are stated....

  1. Understanding The Decision Context: DPSIR, Decision Landscape, And Social Network Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Establishing the decision context for a management problem is the critical first step for effective decision analysis. Understanding the decision context allow stakeholders and decision-makers to integrate the societal, environmental, and economic considerations that must be con...

  2. Verbal Decision Analysis: Foundations and Trends

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Helen M. Moshkovich

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The primary goal of research in multiple criteria decision analysis is to develop tools to help people make more reasonable decisions. In many cases, the development of such tools requires the combination of knowledge derived from such areas as applied mathematics, cognitive psychology, and organizational behavior. Verbal Decision Analysis (VDA is an example of such a combination. It is based on valid mathematical principles, takes into account peculiarities of human information processing system, and fits the decision process into existing organizational environments. The basic underpinnings of Verbal Decision Analysis are demonstrated by early VDA methods, such as ZAPROS and ORCLASS. New trends in their later modifications are discussed. Published applications of VDA methods are presented to support the findings.

  3. Foundations of Decision Analysis: Along the Way

    OpenAIRE

    Peter C. Fishburn

    1989-01-01

    This paper offers a personal perspective on the development of decision theory and related subjects during the past half century. It first reviews six milestones in the foundations of decision analysis that are associated with Frank P. Ramsey, John von Neumann and Oskar Morgenstern, Leonard J. Savage, Maurice Allais and Ward Edwards, West Churchman and Russell Ackoff, and Kenneth Arrow. It then gives a personal account of further developments over the past 30 years in linear utility theory, s...

  4. Calidad de las aceitunas de mesa.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Garrido Fernández, Antonio

    1999-06-01

    Full Text Available The paper comments the different regulations related to table olives at national or international scales. The Unified Qualitative standard Applying to Table Olives in International Trade and COI/Codex (International Olive Oil Council, IOC, and IOC/Codex Alimentarius, «Reglamentación Técnico Sanitaria para la elaboración, circulación y venta de aceitunas de mesa» (Spanish, «Normas de calidad para la exportación de aceitunas de mesa» (Spanish, and the United States Standards for Grades of Green and Canned Ripe Olives (USA are especially considered. The effects of the new regulations on Nutritional Labelling (mainly in USA, applications of the Analysis and Control of Critical Points (ACCP, and the problems derived from the application of the ISO 9000, or EN 29000, to this Sector are also discussed.

    El trabajo comenta las diferentes normas, tanto nacionales como internacionales, que regulan los aspectos de la calidad de las aceitunas de mesa. Se comentan especialmente la Norma Cualitativa Unificada Aplicable a Aceitunas de Mesa en el Comercio Internacional y las correspondientes COI/CODEX (Consejo Oleícola Internacional, COI, y COI/Codex Alimentarius, respectivamente, la Reglamentación Técnico Sanitaria para la elaboración, circulación, y venta de aceitunas de mesa (española, las Normas de calidad para la exportación de Aceitunas de Mesa (española, y las «United States Standards for Grades of Green and Canned Ripe Olives» (USA. Asimismo se analizan las implicaciones de las nuevas reglamentaciones sobre etiquetado nutricional (principalmente en el comercio con USA, la aplicación del Análisis de Riesgos y Control de Puntos Críticos (ARCPC, y la necesidad de adaptar el Sector al cumplimiento de las diversas normas de la serie ISO 9000 o su equivalente EN 29000.

  5. Decision analysis applications and the CERCLA process

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Purucker, S.T.; Lyon, B.F. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States). Risk Analysis Section]|[Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States)

    1994-06-01

    Quantitative decision methods can be developed during environmental restoration projects that incorporate stakeholder input and can complement current efforts that are undertaken for data collection and alternatives evaluation during the CERCLA process. These decision-making tools can supplement current EPA guidance as well as focus on problems that arise as attempts are made to make informed decisions regarding remedial alternative selection. In examining the use of such applications, the authors discuss the use of decision analysis tools and their impact on collecting data and making environmental decisions from a risk-based perspective. They will look at the construction of objective functions for quantifying different risk-based perspective. They will look at the construction of objective functions for quantifying different risk-based decision rules that incorporate stakeholder concerns. This represents a quantitative method for implementing the Data Quality Objective (DQO) process. These objective functions can be expressed using a variety of indices to analyze problems that currently arise in the environmental field. Examples include cost, magnitude of risk, efficiency, and probability of success or failure. Based on such defined objective functions, a project can evaluate the impact of different risk and decision selection strategies on data worth and alternative selection.

  6. Financial Analysis, Budgeting, Decision and Control

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mariana Rodica TIRLEA

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The economic processes taking place in the economic environment are stochastic processes that involve and imply risks, arising from product diversification, competition, financial derivatives transactions: swaps, futures, options and from the large number of actors involved in the stock market with a higher or a smaller uncertainty degree. Competition and competitiveness, led to major and rapid change in the business environment, they determined actors participating in the economy to find solutions and methods of collecting and processing data, in such a way that, after being transformed into information they quickly help based on their analysis in decision making, planning and financial forecasting, having an effect on increasing their economic efficiency. In these circumstances the financial analysis, decision, forecasting and control, should be based on quality information that should be a value creation source. The active nature of the financial function implies the existence of a substantially large share of financial analysis, financial decision, forecasting and control.

  7. Decision variables analysis for structured modeling

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    潘启树; 赫东波; 张洁; 胡运权

    2002-01-01

    Structured modeling is the most commonly used modeling method, but it is not quite addaptive to significant changes in environmental conditions. Therefore, Decision Variables Analysis(DVA), a new modelling method is proposed to deal with linear programming modeling and changing environments. In variant linear programming , the most complicated relationships are those among decision variables. DVA classifies the decision variables into different levels using different index sets, and divides a model into different elements so that any change can only have its effect on part of the whole model. DVA takes into consideration the complicated relationships among decision variables at different levels, and can therefore sucessfully solve any modeling problem in dramatically changing environments.

  8. Is the Mesa Central of Mexico a biogeographical province? Descriptive analysis based on freshwater biotic components ¿La mesa central de México es una provincia biogeográfica? Análisis descriptivo basado en componentes bióticos dulceacuícolas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Omar Domínguez-Domínguez

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available This essay presents an analysis of the concept of Mesa Central of México as a potential biogeographical province. This region of México has been used as a reference for describing species richness and distribution patterns of the freshwater fish fauna. However, it has not been recognized as a biogeographical province in the available schemes which are mostly based on the composition of terrestrial biota. Here, we provide a historical sketch of the way the concept of Mesa Central arose in the literature as a physiographic province, and we provide a comparison with respect to the regionalization schemes of the Mexican territory, which are based on attributes such physiography, elevation, hydrology, geology and biogeography. We conclude that the Mesa Central, even though it represents a practical concept for establishing the distribution pattern of the fish fauna, in the way it was described originally cannot be circumscribed to any of the regions or provinces in which Mexico has been divided. We also argue that this geographical region cannot be considered as a synonym of the Transmexican Volcanic Axis biogeographical province, and also that it is possible that the fact that this area is not circumscribed to any regionalization scheme is due to the fact that freshwater elements have not been considered in the establishment of such biogeographical regions. We end by pointing out the need for a biogeographical analysis that integrates most of the freshwater elements in order to determine whether both the aquatic and terrestrial flora and fauna are driven by the same geobiotic processes.En este ensayo se presenta un análisis del concepto de Mesa Central de México como una posible provincia biogeográfica. Esta región del país ha sido utilizada como referencia para describir la riqueza y distribución de una parte importante de la fauna ictiológica dulceacuícola, sin embargo, no es reconocida como provincia biogeográfica en ninguno de los

  9. Multicriteria decision aid/analysis in finance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J. Spronk (Jaap); R.E. Steuer; C. Zopounidis

    2005-01-01

    textabstractMULTIPLE CRITERIA DECISION ANALYSIS: State of the Art Surveys is the most comprehensive work available to survey the state of the art in MCDA to date. Its 25 chapters are organized in eight parts and are written by 52 international leading experts. Each of these parts covers one of the c

  10. KAKVOĆA KOZJEG MESA

    OpenAIRE

    Kegalj, Adrijana; Mioč, Boro; Vrdoljak, Marija

    2011-01-01

    Proizvodnja i potrošnja kozjeg mesa najveća je u zemljama Azije i Afrike, dok je u razvijenim zapadnim zemljama na prilično niskoj razini. Međutim, u posljednje vrijeme naglašena je promjena u pristupu kozjim proizvodima, osobito jaretini, mlijeku i siru kao „zdravim“ i poželjnim namirnicama što se odražava na povećanje konzumacije navedenih proizvoda. Jaretina je najvažnija i najzastupljenija kategorija kozjeg mesa na tržištu. Visoke je hranjive vrijednosti, bogata bjelančevina, vitaminima i...

  11. [HEALTH ECONOMIC ANALYSIS AND FAIR DECISION MAKING].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeantet, Marine; Lopez, Alain

    2015-09-01

    Health technology assessment consists in evaluating the incremental cost-benefit ratio of a medicine, a medical device, a vaccine, a health strategy, in comparison to alternative health technologies. This form of socio-eoonomic evaluation aims at optimizing resource allocation within the health system. By setting the terms of valid alternatives, it is useful to highlight public choices, but it cannot in itself make the decision as regards the public funding of patient's access to the considered technology. The decision to include such technology in the basket of health goods and sercices covered, the levels and conditions of the coverage, also result from budget constraints, from economic situation and from a political vision about health policy, social protection and public expenditure. Accordingly, health economic analysis must be implemented on specific and targeted topics. The decision making process, with its health, economic and ethical stakes, calls for a public procedure and debate, based on shared information and argument. Otherwise, health system regulation, confronted with radical and costly innovations in the coming years, will become harder to handle. This requires the development of health economic research teams able to contribute to this assessment exercise. PMID:26619723

  12. Risk analysis as a decision tool

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    From 1983 - 1985 a lecture series entitled ''Risk-benefit analysis'' was held at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (ETH), Zurich, in cooperation with the Central Department for the Safety of Nuclear Installations of the Swiss Federal Agency of Energy Economy. In that setting the value of risk-oriented evaluation models as a decision tool in safety questions was discussed on a broad basis. Experts of international reputation from the Federal Republic of Germany, France, Canada, the United States and Switzerland have contributed to report in this joint volume on the uses of such models. Following an introductory synopsis on risk analysis and risk assessment the book deals with practical examples in the fields of medicine, nuclear power, chemistry, transport and civil engineering. Particular attention is paid to the dialogue between analysts and decision makers taking into account the economic-technical aspects and social values. The recent chemical disaster in the Indian city of Bhopal again signals the necessity of such analyses. All the lectures were recorded individually. (orig./HP)

  13. ISHM Decision Analysis Tool: Operations Concept

    Science.gov (United States)

    2006-01-01

    The state-of-the-practice Shuttle caution and warning system warns the crew of conditions that may create a hazard to orbiter operations and/or crew. Depending on the severity of the alarm, the crew is alerted with a combination of sirens, tones, annunciator lights, or fault messages. The combination of anomalies (and hence alarms) indicates the problem. Even with much training, determining what problem a particular combination represents is not trivial. In many situations, an automated diagnosis system can help the crew more easily determine an underlying root cause. Due to limitations of diagnosis systems,however, it is not always possible to explain a set of alarms with a single root cause. Rather, the system generates a set of hypotheses that the crew can select from. The ISHM Decision Analysis Tool (IDAT) assists with this task. It presents the crew relevant information that could help them resolve the ambiguity of multiple root causes and determine a method for mitigating the problem. IDAT follows graphical user interface design guidelines and incorporates a decision analysis system. I describe both of these aspects.

  14. Variable precision rough set for multiple decision attribute analysis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Lai; Kin; Keung

    2008-01-01

    A variable precision rough set (VPRS) model is used to solve the multi-attribute decision analysis (MADA) problem with multiple conflicting decision attributes and multiple condition attributes. By introducing confidence measures and a β-reduct, the VPRS model can rationally solve the conflicting decision analysis problem with multiple decision attributes and multiple condition attributes. For illustration, a medical diagnosis example is utilized to show the feasibility of the VPRS model in solving the MADA...

  15. Application of portfolio theory in decision tree analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galligan, D T; Ramberg, C; Curtis, C; Ferguson, J; Fetrow, J

    1991-07-01

    A general application of portfolio analysis for herd decision tree analysis is described. In the herd environment, this methodology offers a means of employing population-based decision strategies that can help the producer control economic variation in expected return from a given set of decision options. An economic decision tree model regarding the use of prostaglandin in dairy cows with undetected estrus was used to determine the expected return of the decisions to use prostaglandin and breed on a timed basis, use prostaglandin and then breed on sign of estrus, or breed on signs of estrus. The risk attributes of these decision alternatives were calculated from the decision tree, and portfolio theory was used to find the efficient decision combinations (portfolios with the highest return for a given variance). The resulting combinations of decisions could be used to control return variation.

  16. Using discriminant analysis for credit decision

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gheorghiţa DINCĂ

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper follows to highlight the link between the results obtained applying discriminant analysis and lending decision. For this purpose, we have carried out the research on a sample of 24 Romanian private companies, pertaining to 12 different economic sectors, from I and II categories of Bucharest Stock Exchange, for the period 2010-2012. Our study works with two popular bankruptcy risk’s prediction models, the Altman model and the Anghel model. We have double-checked and confirmed the results of our research by comparing the results from applying the two fore-mentioned models as well as by checking existing debt commitments of each analyzed company to credit institutions during the 2010-2012 period. The aim of this paper was the classification of studied companies into potential bankrupt and non-bankrupt, to assist credit institutions in their decision to grant credit, understanding the approval or rejection algorithm of loan applications and even help potential investors in these ompanies.

  17. Sediment Analysis Network for Decision Support (SANDS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hardin, D. M.; Keiser, K.; Graves, S. J.; Conover, H.; Ebersole, S.

    2009-12-01

    Since the year 2000, Eastern Louisiana, coastal Mississippi, Alabama, and the western Florida panhandle have been affected by 28 tropical storms, seven of which were hurricanes. These tropical cyclones have significantly altered normal coastal processes and characteristics in the Gulf region through sediment disturbance. Although tides, seasonality, and agricultural development influence suspended sediment and sediment deposition over periods of time, tropical storm activity has the capability of moving the largest sediment loads in the shortest periods of time for coastal areas. The importance of sediments upon water quality, coastal erosion, habitats and nutrients has made their study and monitoring vital to decision makers in the region. Currently agencies such as United States Army Corps of Engineers (USACE), NASA, and Geological Survey of Alabama (GSA) are employing a variety of in-situ and airborne based measurements to assess and monitor sediment loading and deposition. These methods provide highly accurate information but are limited in geographic range, are not continuous over a region and, in the case of airborne LIDAR are expensive and do not recur on a regular basis. Multi-temporal and multi-spectral satellite imagery that shows tropical-storm-induced suspended sediment and storm-surge sediment deposits can provide decision makers with immediate and long-term information about the impacts of tropical storms and hurricanes. It can also be valuable for those conducting research and for projects related to coastal issues such as recovery, planning, management, and mitigation. The recently awarded Sediment Analysis Network for Decision Support will generate decision support products using NASA satellite observations from MODIS, Landsat and SeaWiFS instruments to support resource management, planning, and decision making activities in the Gulf of Mexico. Specifically, SANDS will generate decision support products that address the impacts of tropical storms

  18. Cloud Service Selection Using Multicriteria Decision Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Md Whaiduzzaman

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Cloud computing (CC has recently been receiving tremendous attention from the IT industry and academic researchers. CC leverages its unique services to cloud customers in a pay-as-you-go, anytime, anywhere manner. Cloud services provide dynamically scalable services through the Internet on demand. Therefore, service provisioning plays a key role in CC. The cloud customer must be able to select appropriate services according to his or her needs. Several approaches have been proposed to solve the service selection problem, including multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA. MCDA enables the user to choose from among a number of available choices. In this paper, we analyze the application of MCDA to service selection in CC. We identify and synthesize several MCDA techniques and provide a comprehensive analysis of this technology for general readers. In addition, we present a taxonomy derived from a survey of the current literature. Finally, we highlight several state-of-the-art practical aspects of MCDA implementation in cloud computing service selection. The contributions of this study are four-fold: (a focusing on the state-of-the-art MCDA techniques, (b highlighting the comparative analysis and suitability of several MCDA methods, (c presenting a taxonomy through extensive literature review, and (d analyzing and summarizing the cloud computing service selections in different scenarios.

  19. Analysis of a distribution decision algorithm

    OpenAIRE

    Hahn, Sung Chu

    1985-01-01

    Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited Distributed decision problems arise whenever two or more sensors and their associated computers must work cooperatively to make a decision about a commonly observed event. Typical examples are in target detection and classification. The problem is usually characterized by a limited bandwidth of the communication link between the sensors. This thesis develops and evaluates an algorithm for distributed decision and compares it to a non-...

  20. Cancer incidence study in Mesa County, Colorado

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In November of 1982 the Colorado Department of Health completed an epidemiologic investigation of leukemia, multiple myeloma, and cancers of the lung, stomach, pancreas and colon in Mesa County, Colorado for the years 1970 to 1979. This investigation was performed in response to a concern that the presence of uranium mill tailings in some Mesa County homes presents a potential cancer hazard. The results of the investigation show that the incidence of multiple myeloma, colon, stomach and pancreatic cancer are not above expected rates. The incidence of leukemia is not above expected rates for the entire study period, 1970 to 1979. The incidence of lung cancer appears elevated when compared to the The Third National Cancer Survey data for Colorado but lower than expected when compared to Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results data. To further examine the leukemia and lung cancer incidence findings, a case/control study was conducted. The controls consisted of colon, stomach and pancreatic cancer cases. The results of the leukemia case/control analysis show no association with the radiation exposure variables: occupational radiation exposure; uranium mining exposure; having ever lived in a type A home (uranium tailings home); and radiation therapy. The lung cancer case/control analysis shows a significant association with only the radiation exposure variable, uranium mining history, indicating cases were more likely to have been uranium miners than were controls. As with leukemia, the study found no association between lung cancer and living in a uranium mill tailings home. The relatively low radiation exposures typical of type A homes and the small number of persons exposed make it very difficult to establish, by epidemiologic methods, that a risk exists

  1. Decision forests for computer vision and medical image analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Criminisi, A

    2013-01-01

    This practical and easy-to-follow text explores the theoretical underpinnings of decision forests, organizing the vast existing literature on the field within a new, general-purpose forest model. Topics and features: with a foreword by Prof. Y. Amit and Prof. D. Geman, recounting their participation in the development of decision forests; introduces a flexible decision forest model, capable of addressing a large and diverse set of image and video analysis tasks; investigates both the theoretical foundations and the practical implementation of decision forests; discusses the use of decision for

  2. A regret theory approach to decision curve analysis: A novel method for eliciting decision makers' preferences and decision-making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vickers Andrew

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Decision curve analysis (DCA has been proposed as an alternative method for evaluation of diagnostic tests, prediction models, and molecular markers. However, DCA is based on expected utility theory, which has been routinely violated by decision makers. Decision-making is governed by intuition (system 1, and analytical, deliberative process (system 2, thus, rational decision-making should reflect both formal principles of rationality and intuition about good decisions. We use the cognitive emotion of regret to serve as a link between systems 1 and 2 and to reformulate DCA. Methods First, we analysed a classic decision tree describing three decision alternatives: treat, do not treat, and treat or no treat based on a predictive model. We then computed the expected regret for each of these alternatives as the difference between the utility of the action taken and the utility of the action that, in retrospect, should have been taken. For any pair of strategies, we measure the difference in net expected regret. Finally, we employ the concept of acceptable regret to identify the circumstances under which a potentially wrong strategy is tolerable to a decision-maker. Results We developed a novel dual visual analog scale to describe the relationship between regret associated with "omissions" (e.g. failure to treat vs. "commissions" (e.g. treating unnecessary and decision maker's preferences as expressed in terms of threshold probability. We then proved that the Net Expected Regret Difference, first presented in this paper, is equivalent to net benefits as described in the original DCA. Based on the concept of acceptable regret we identified the circumstances under which a decision maker tolerates a potentially wrong decision and expressed it in terms of probability of disease. Conclusions We present a novel method for eliciting decision maker's preferences and an alternative derivation of DCA based on regret theory. Our approach may

  3. Robust decision analysis for environmental management of groundwater contamination sites

    CERN Document Server

    Vesselinov, Velimir V; Katzman, Danny

    2013-01-01

    In contrast to many other engineering fields, the uncertainties in subsurface processes (e.g., fluid flow and contaminant transport in aquifers) and their parameters are notoriously difficult to observe, measure, and characterize. This causes severe uncertainties that need to be addressed in any decision analysis related to optimal management and remediation of groundwater contamination sites. Furthermore, decision analyses typically rely heavily on complex data analyses and/or model predictions, which are often poorly constrained as well. Recently, we have developed a model-driven decision-support framework (called MADS; http://mads.lanl.gov) for the management and remediation of subsurface contamination sites in which severe uncertainties and complex physics-based models are coupled to perform scientifically defensible decision analyses. The decision analyses are based on Information Gap Decision Theory (IGDT). We demonstrate the MADS capabilities by solving a decision problem related to optimal monitoring ...

  4. Masti i masne kiseline ovčjeg mesa

    OpenAIRE

    Krvavica, dr.sc. Marina; Kegalj, Andrijana; Đugum, Dr.sc. Jelena

    2013-01-01

    Udio masti i sastav masnih kiselina mesa značajna su svojstva koja utječu na procjenu kvalitete mesa i proizvoda od mesa. Značajnija promjena udjela intramuskularne masti te svaka promjena u sastavu masnih kiselina mesa može utjecati na bilo koji aspekt kvalitete mesa i proizvoda od mesa. Masne kiseline mesa (sastavljene uglavnom od 12 – 22 C atoma) sastoje se od oko 40% zasićenih, 40% mononezasićenih i oko 2 - 25% polinezasićenih masnih kiselina. Manje količine masnih kiselina kraćeg lanc...

  5. Kako unaprijediti lanac mesa: pregled kriterija

    OpenAIRE

    Djekić, dr. sc. Ilija; Tomašević, Dr.sc. Igor

    2015-01-01

    Ovaj rad daje pregled postojećih metodologija koje se primjenjuju za procjenu lanca mesa. Ovisno o ulozi proizvođača u samom lancu, vrsti procjene i kriterijima ocjenjivanja, autori su analizirali različite sustave i postupke usmjerene poboljšanju sigurnosti hrane i značajki kvalitete u proizvodnji mesa. Uloga pojedine tvrtke mesne industrije u lancu mesa utječe na provođenje očekivanih kriterija za sigurnost i/ili kvalitetu hrane. Autori su identificirali razne međunarodne norme ko...

  6. Significant Labor Decisions--An Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Polhemus, Graig E.

    1977-01-01

    Major labor cases decided during 1976 did not project a clear or simple path for further Constitutional and statutory interpretation, but the year's labor decisions did reveal a new willingness on the part of the U.S. Supreme Court to depart from earlier views of Constitutional law. (JT)

  7. Household consumption, female employment and fertility decisions; A microeconometric analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kalwij, A.S.

    1999-01-01

    This thesis is mainly concerned with a simultaneous analysis of the economic determinants of female employment and fertility decisions on a household level in the Netherlands. In particular, this thesis is interested in the role of the employment decisions of women in the observed behavior that high

  8. An Analysis of Design Decision-Making in Industrial Practice

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ahmed, Saeema; Hansen, Claus Thorp

    2002-01-01

    is examined. The analysis led to a deeper understanding of the decision-making activities undertaken by engineering designers in industrial practice. The decision-making episodes undertaken by individual designers were supported by design strategies, not by formal decision-making methods. This implies......This paper describes research that confronts a generic decision-making model with design strategies employed by experienced designers. The relationship between the decision-making activities proposed by the model and the eight design strategies identified by an empirical study of design work...... that designers in practice do not rely solely on methods to support their decision-making process, but also on the use of relevant design strategies....

  9. Decision Analysis of Dynamic Spectrum Access Rules

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Juan D. Deaton; Luiz A. DaSilva; Christian Wernz

    2011-12-01

    A current trend in spectrum regulation is to incorporate spectrum sharing through the design of spectrum access rules that support Dynamic Spectrum Access (DSA). This paper develops a decision-theoretic framework for regulators to assess the impacts of different decision rules on both primary and secondary operators. We analyze access rules based on sensing and exclusion areas, which in practice can be enforced through geolocation databases. Our results show that receiver-only sensing provides insufficient protection for primary and co-existing secondary users and overall low social welfare. On the other hand, using sensing information between the transmitter and receiver of a communication link, provides dramatic increases in system performance. The performance of using these link end points is relatively close to that of using many cooperative sensing nodes associated to the same access point and large link exclusion areas. These results are useful to regulators and network developers in understanding in developing rules for future DSA regulation.

  10. Assessing hydraulic connections across a complex sequence of volcanic rocks - Analysis of U-20 WW multiple-well aquifer test, Pahute Mesa, Nevada National Security Site, Nevada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia, C. Amanda; Fenelon, Joseph M.; Halford, Keith J.; Reiner, Steven R.; Laczniak, Randell J.

    2011-01-01

    Groundwater beneath Pahute Mesa flows through a complexly layered sequence of volcanic rock aquifers and confining units that have been faulted into distinct structural blocks. Hydraulic property estimates of rocks and structures in this flow system are necessary to assess radionuclide migration near underground nuclear testing areas. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) used a 12 month (October 1, 2008— October 1, 2009) intermittent pumping schedule of well U-20 WW and continuously monitored water levels in observation wells ER-20-6 #3, UE-20bh 1, and U-20bg as a multi-well aquifer test to evaluate hydraulic connections across structural blocks, bulk hydraulic properties of volcanic rocks, and the hydraulic significance of a major fault. Measured water levels were approximated using synthetic water levels generated from an analytical model. Synthetic water levels are a summation of environmental water-level fluctuations and a Theis (1935) transform of the pumping signal from flow rate to water-level change. Drawdown was estimated by summing residual differences between measured and synthetic water levels and the Theis-transformed pumping signal from April to September 2009. Drawdown estimates were used in a three‑dimensional numerical model to estimate hydraulic properties of distinct aquifers, confining units, and a major fault.

  11. Geology of the Calamity Mesa quadrangle, Mesa county, Colorado

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cater, Fred W.; Stager, Harold K.

    1953-01-01

    The Calamity Mesa quadrangle is one of eighteen 7 1/2-minute quadrangles covering the principal carnotite-producing area of southwestern Colorado. The geology of these quadrangles was mapped by the U.S. Geological Survey for the Atomic Energy Commission as part of a comprehensive study of carnotite deposits. The rocks exposed in the eighteen quadrangles consist of crystalline rocks of pre-Cambrian age and sedimentary rocks the range in age from late Paleozoic to Quaternary. Over much of the area the sedimentary rocks are flat lying, but in places the rocks are disrupted by high-angle faults, and northwest-trending folds. Conspicuous among the folds are large anticlines having cores of intrusive salt and gypsum. Most of the carnotite deposits are confined to the Salt Wash sandstone member of the Jurassic Morrison formation. Within this sandstone, most of the deposits are spottily distributed through an arcuate zone known as the "Uravan Mineral Belt". Individual deposits range in size from irregular masses containing only a few tons of ore to large tabular masses containing many thousands of tons. The ore consists largely of sandstone selectively impregnated and in part replaced by uranium and vanadium minerals. Most of the deposits appear to be related to certain sedimentary structures in sandstones of favorable composition.

  12. A decision analysis of an exploratory studies facility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    An Exploratory Studies Facility (ESF) is planned to support the characterization of a potential site for a high-level nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain, NV. The selection of a design for the ESF is a critical decision, because the ESF design may affect the accuracy of characterization testing and subsequent repository design. The assist the design process, a comparative evaluation was conducted to rank 34 alternative relied on techniques from formal decision analysis, including decision trees and multiattribute utility analysis (MUA). The results helped to identify favorable design features and convinced the Department of Energy to adopt the top-ranked option as the preferred ESF design

  13. Decision aiding in plastic surgery: a multicriteria analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luiz Flávio Autran Monteiro Gomes

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this article is to present, through a real case, a practical way, based on Multicriteria Decision Aiding, to support decision making in Plastic Surgery. The case studied was a Caucasian woman of 36 years of age with mammarian hypertrophia with ptosis and abdominal lipodystrophy, making it necessary to select the most adequate techniques for the best aesthetic result. For this purpose, the multicriteria methods Even Swaps and PrOACT were used. Three plastic surgeons working in the city of Rio de Janeiro with equivalent professional experience were consulted as decision agents. In order to define the objectives to be achieved, the criteria relevant to the making of the decision and the alternatives which could be used were identified. Throughout this identification and in the later analysis the surgeons participated in the application of the methods, which contributed towards facilitating their acceptance of the multicriteria analysis in their decision making. It was confirmed, in this case study, that the use of Multicriteria Decision Aiding tends to make the medical decision more wide ranging and, above all, transparent. The plastic surgeons themselves validated the analysis, considering it fully consistent with their professional experience.

  14. Decision analysis for the selection of tank waste retrieval technology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    DAVIS,FREDDIE J.; DEWEESE,GREGORY C.; PICKETT,WILLIAM W.

    2000-03-01

    The objective of this report is to supplement the C-104 Alternatives Generation and Analysis (AGA) by providing a decision analysis for the alternative technologies described therein. The decision analysis used the Multi-Attribute Utility Analysis (MUA) technique. To the extent possible information will come from the AGA. Where data are not available, elicitation of expert opinion or engineering judgment is used and reviewed by the authors of the AGA. A key element of this particular analysis is the consideration of varying perspectives of parties interested in or affected by the decision. The six alternatives discussed are: sluicing; sluicing with vehicle mounted transfer pump; borehole mining; vehicle with attached sluicing nozzle and pump; articulated arm with attached sluicing nozzle; and mechanical dry retrieval. These are evaluated using four attributes, namely: schedule, cost, environmental impact, and safety.

  15. Multi-criteria decision analysis for use in transport decision making

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    infrastructure project is for this reason required. An appropriate ex-ante evaluation method for such projects can be based on multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) (Tsamboulas, 2007. Vreeker et al. 2002), which in most cases can be combined with a CBA (Leleur, 2000). Scanning the literature (Belton...

  16. Decision Analysis System for Selection of Appropriate Decontamination Technologies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The principal objective for designing Decision Analysis System for Decontamination (DASD) is to support DOE-EM's endeavor to employ the most efficient and effective technologies for treating radiologically contaminated surfaces while minimizing personnel and environmental risks. DASD will provide a tool for environmental decision makers to improve the quality, consistency, and efficacy of their technology selection decisions. The system will facilitate methodical comparisons between innovative and baseline decontamination technologies and aid in identifying the most suitable technologies for performing surface decontamination at DOE environmental restoration sites

  17. Decision Analysis System for Selection of Appropriate Decontamination Technologies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ebadian, M.A.; Boudreaux, J.F.; Chinta, S.; Zanakis, S.H.

    1998-01-01

    The principal objective for designing Decision Analysis System for Decontamination (DASD) is to support DOE-EM's endeavor to employ the most efficient and effective technologies for treating radiologically contaminated surfaces while minimizing personnel and environmental risks. DASD will provide a tool for environmental decision makers to improve the quality, consistency, and efficacy of their technology selection decisions. The system will facilitate methodical comparisons between innovative and baseline decontamination technologies and aid in identifying the most suitable technologies for performing surface decontamination at DOE environmental restoration sites.

  18. Evaluating Biosurveillance System Components using Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Generous, Eric Nicholas; Deshpande, Alina; Brown, Mac; Castro, Lauren; Margevicius, Kristen; Daniel, William Brent; Taylor-McCabe, Kirsten

    2013-01-01

    Objective The use of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) has traditionally been limited to the field of operations research, however many of the tools and methods developed for MCDA can also be applied to biosurveillance. Our project demonstrates the utility of MCDA for this purpose by applying it to the evaluation of data streams for use in an integrated, global biosurveillance system. Introduction The evaluation of biosurveillance system components is a complex, multi-objective decision...

  19. Case history report on East Mesa and Cerro Prieto geothermal fields

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Davis, DG.; Sanyal, S.K.

    1979-06-01

    Well log analysis as applied to the geothermal industry is one of the areas of technology in great need of further development. One means of improving log analysis technology is to study case histories of the past uses of log analysis as applied to specific fields. The project described in this report involved case history studies on two well-known geothermal areas in North America: the East Mesa field in California and the Cerro Prieto field in Mexico. Since there was considerably more pertinent material available on East Mesa, a major part of the effort on this project was devoted to studying the East Mesa field. One particular problem that first came to attention when studying the Cerro Prieto data was the difficulty in determining actual formation temperature at the time of logging. Since the temperature can have a significant effect on well log readings, an accurate temperature determination was considered to be important.

  20. Making Good Decisions in Healthcare with Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis: The Use, Current Research and Future Development of MCDA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mühlbacher, Axel C; Kaczynski, Anika

    2016-02-01

    Healthcare decision making is usually characterized by a low degree of transparency. The demand for transparent decision processes can be fulfilled only when assessment, appraisal and decisions about health technologies are performed under a systematic construct of benefit assessment. The benefit of an intervention is often multidimensional and, thus, must be represented by several decision criteria. Complex decision problems require an assessment and appraisal of various criteria; therefore, a decision process that systematically identifies the best available alternative and enables an optimal and transparent decision is needed. For that reason, decision criteria must be weighted and goal achievement must be scored for all alternatives. Methods of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) are available to analyse and appraise multiple clinical endpoints and structure complex decision problems in healthcare decision making. By means of MCDA, value judgments, priorities and preferences of patients, insurees and experts can be integrated systematically and transparently into the decision-making process. This article describes the MCDA framework and identifies potential areas where MCDA can be of use (e.g. approval, guidelines and reimbursement/pricing of health technologies). A literature search was performed to identify current research in healthcare. The results showed that healthcare decision making is addressing the problem of multiple decision criteria and is focusing on the future development and use of techniques to weight and score different decision criteria. This article emphasizes the use and future benefit of MCDA.

  1. Decisiveness

    OpenAIRE

    Junichiro Ishida

    2008-01-01

    This paper investigates how the presence of strong leadership influences an organization's ability to acquire and process information. The key concept is the leader's decisiveness. A decisive leader can make a bold move in response to a large change in the underlying landscape, whereas an indecisive leader biases her position excessively towards the status quo. An organization led by an indecisive leader needs to accumulate unrealistically strong evidence before it changes the course of actio...

  2. Category theoretic analysis of single-photon decision maker

    CERN Document Server

    Kim, Makoto Naruse Song-Ju; Berthel, Martin; Drezet, Aurélien; Huant, Serge; Hori, Hirokazu

    2016-01-01

    Decision making is a vital function in the era of artificial intelligence; however, its physical realizations and their theoretical fundamentals are not yet known. In our former study [Sci. Rep. 5, 513253 (2015)], we demonstrated that single photons can be used to make decisions in uncertain, dynamically changing environments. The multi-armed bandit problem was successfully solved using the dual probabilistic and particle attributes of single photons. Herein, we present the category theoretic foundation of the single-photon-based decision making, including quantitative analysis that agrees well with the experimental results. The category theoretic model unveils complex interdependencies of the entities of the subject matter in the most simplified manner, including a dynamically changing environment. In particular, the octahedral structure in triangulated categories provides a clear understanding of the underlying mechanisms of the single-photon decision maker. This is the first demonstration of a category the...

  3. Use of decision analysis techniques to determine Hanford cleanup priorities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In January 1991, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Richland Field Office, Westinghouse Hanford Company, and the Pacific Northwest Laboratory initiated the Hanford Integrated Planning Process (HIPP) to ensure that technically sound and publicly acceptable decisions are made that support the environmental cleanup mission at Hanford. One of the HIPP's key roles is to develop an understanding of the science and technology (S and T) requirements to support the cleanup mission. This includes conducting an annual systematic assessment of the S and T needs at Hanford to support a comprehensive technology development program and a complementary scientific research program. Basic to success is a planning and assessment methodology that is defensible from a technical perspective and acceptable to the various Hanford stakeholders. Decision analysis techniques were used to help identify and prioritize problems and S and T needs at Hanford. The approach used structured elicitations to bring many Hanford stakeholders into the process. Decision analysis, which is based on the axioms and methods of utility and probability theory, is especially useful in problems characterized by uncertainties and multiple objectives. Decision analysis addresses uncertainties by laying out a logical sequence of decisions, events, and consequences and by quantifying event and consequence probabilities on the basis of expert judgments

  4. Decision Aid for Planning Local Energy Systems : Application of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Catrinu, Maria

    2006-01-01

    Planning is what sustains an energy system. It is a process of analysis and ongoing decision making about what resources and energy technologies to use when supplying energy to society. This research focuses on integrated energy systems, i.e. systems that are comprised of several energy carriers – electricity, gas, hot water - and energy distribution networks. The planning of these kinds of systems is a complex process, influenced by many factors, among which the most important are the availa...

  5. Using real options analysis to support strategic management decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kabaivanov, Stanimir; Markovska, Veneta; Milev, Mariyan

    2013-12-01

    Decision making is a complex process that requires taking into consideration multiple heterogeneous sources of uncertainty. Standard valuation and financial analysis techniques often fail to properly account for all these sources of risk as well as for all sources of additional flexibility. In this paper we explore applications of a modified binomial tree method for real options analysis (ROA) in an effort to improve decision making process. Usual cases of use of real options are analyzed with elaborate study on the applications and advantages that company management can derive from their application. A numeric results based on extending simple binomial tree approach for multiple sources of uncertainty are provided to demonstrate the improvement effects on management decisions.

  6. Best-estimate analysis and decision making under uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In many engineering analyses of system safety the traditional reliance on conservative evaluation model calculations is being replaced with so called best-estimate analysis. These best-estimate analyses differentiate themselves from the traditional conservative analyses through two ingredients, namely realistic models and an account of the residual uncertainty associated with the model calculations. Best-estimate analysis, in the context of this paper, refers to the numerical evaluation of system properties of interest in situations where direct confirmatory measurements are not feasible. A decision with regard to the safety of the system is then made based on the computed numerical values of the system properties of interest. These situations generally arise in the design of systems that require computed and generally nontrivial extrapolations from the available data. In the case of nuclear reactors, examples are criticality of spent fuel pools, neutronic parameters of new advanced designs where insufficient material is available for mockup critical experiments and, the large break loss of coolant accident (LOCA). In this paper the case of LOCA, is taken to discuss the best-estimate analysis and decision making. Central to decision making is information. Thus, of interest is the source, quantity and quality of the information obtained in a best-estimate analysis, and used to define the acceptance criteria and to formulate a decision rule. This in effect expands the problem from the calculation of a conservative margin to a predefined acceptance criterion, to the formulation of a consistent decision rule and the computation of a test statistic for application of the decision rule. The latter view is a necessary condition for developing risk informed decision rules, and, thus, the relation between design basis analysis criteria and probabilistic risk assessment criteria is key. The discussion is in the context of making a decision under uncertainty for a reactor

  7. Decision analysis and rational countermeasures in radiation protection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    During the past few years several international organizations (ICRP, IAEA, OECD/NEA), in revising their radiation protection principles, have emphasized the importance of the rationalization and planning of intervention after a nuclear accident. An accident itself and the introduction of protective action entails risks to the people affected, monetary costs and social disruption. Thus protective actions, often including objectives which are difficult to control simultaneously, cannot be undertaken without careful contemplation and consideration of the essential consequences of decisions. Often during an accident there is not enough time for careful consideration. Decision analysis is an analyzing and thought guiding method for the definition of objectives and comparison of options. It is an appropriate methodology assisting in rendering explicit and apparent all factors involved and evaluating their relative importance. The planning of intervention with the help of decision analysis is portion of the preparation for accident situations. In this report one of the techniques of decision analysis, multi-attribute utility analysis, is presented, as concerns its application in planning protective actions in the event of radiation accidents. (orig.)

  8. Child Custody Decisions: Content Analysis of a Judicial Survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Settle, Shirley A; Lowery, Carol R.

    1982-01-01

    Surveyed judges and trial commissioners (N=80) regarding child custody decisions in divorce. The content analysis described the responents' comments which clarified their reasons for attaching greater or lesser importance to a particular consideration or the method using in assessing a particular consideration during a court proceeding. (JAC)

  9. Decision Analysis For Nuclear Fuel Cycle Policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The prime objective in this talk is to explore the impact of widely different (or hypothetical) fuel cycle requirement rather than to attempt to predict a probable scenario. In the course of preparation of this talk, it was realized that, despite the very speculative nature of this kind of endeavor, studies like these are considered essential to the long-range planning needs of the national nuclear power industry, utilities and those providing supporting services, even though the current presentation are extremely primitive in that purpose. A nuclear electricity utility tries to reduce fuel cycle costs. But the problems have to be approached with a long-term perspective, and the logical conclusion is that utility has to make technical progress. As nuclear generation gradually become great, supplies of the fuel cycle services are responsible for the R and D about the nuclear fuel cycle services which is useful to implement the technical choices they propose. Then it is for the utility to choose according to his knowledge, if necessary by carrying out additional research. But only the utility acquires real operating experience and prototype reactor or laboratory tests offer limited knowledge quantities. One way to ensure a good guarantee of supply is, obviously, to make the order far enough ahead of time to have a stock. But, on the other hand, stocks are expensive and should be kept to a strict minimum. Therefore, a detailed analysis of uncertainties is required, as well as an effort to optimize the handling of the overall problem. As mentioned earlier, in recent years, specifically the right way to handle the back-end of the fuel cycle has been always hotly contested and ultimately it was a question of reprocessing or direct disposal of spent fuel elements. Direct disposal of spent fuel is, at present, the only possibility of spent fuel disposal option available to the Korean utility. Korea, having virtually no indigenous uranium resources, can hardly afford to

  10. Exposure models for the prior distribution in bayesian decision analysis for occupational hygiene decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Eun Gyung; Kim, Seung Won; Feigley, Charles E; Harper, Martin

    2013-01-01

    This study introduces two semi-quantitative methods, Structured Subjective Assessment (SSA) and Control of Substances Hazardous to Health (COSHH) Essentials, in conjunction with two-dimensional Monte Carlo simulations for determining prior probabilities. Prior distribution using expert judgment was included for comparison. Practical applications of the proposed methods were demonstrated using personal exposure measurements of isoamyl acetate in an electronics manufacturing facility and of isopropanol in a printing shop. Applicability of these methods in real workplaces was discussed based on the advantages and disadvantages of each method. Although these methods could not be completely independent of expert judgments, this study demonstrated a methodological improvement in the estimation of the prior distribution for the Bayesian decision analysis tool. The proposed methods provide a logical basis for the decision process by considering determinants of worker exposure.

  11. Risk Analysis and Decision Making FY 2013 Milestone Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Engel, David W.; Dalton, Angela C.; Dale, Crystal; Jones, Edward; Thompson, J.

    2013-06-01

    Risk analysis and decision making is one of the critical objectives of CCSI, which seeks to use information from science-based models with quantified uncertainty to inform decision makers who are making large capital investments. The goal of this task is to develop tools and capabilities to facilitate the development of risk models tailored for carbon capture technologies, quantify the uncertainty of model predictions, and estimate the technical and financial risks associated with the system. This effort aims to reduce costs by identifying smarter demonstrations, which could accelerate development and deployment of the technology by several years.

  12. Accommodating complexity and human behaviors in decision analysis.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Backus, George A.; Siirola, John Daniel; Schoenwald, David Alan; Strip, David R.; Hirsch, Gary B.; Bastian, Mark S.; Braithwaite, Karl R.; Homer, Jack [Homer Consulting

    2007-11-01

    This is the final report for a LDRD effort to address human behavior in decision support systems. One sister LDRD effort reports the extension of this work to include actual human choices and additional simulation analyses. Another provides the background for this effort and the programmatic directions for future work. This specific effort considered the feasibility of five aspects of model development required for analysis viability. To avoid the use of classified information, healthcare decisions and the system embedding them became the illustrative example for assessment.

  13. Analysis of Production and Location Decisions by Means of Multi-Criteria Analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    P. Nijkamp (Peter); J. Spronk (Jaap)

    1979-01-01

    textabstractDuring the last few years economists and operations researchers have paid much attention to multi-criteria analysis as a tool in modern decision-making. The basic feature of multi-criteria analysis is the fact that a wide variety of relevant decision aspects can be taken into account wit

  14. The Methods of Sensitivity Analysis and Their Usage for Analysis of Multicriteria Decision

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rūta Simanavičienė

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we describe the application's fields of the sensitivity analysis methods. We pass in review the application of these methods in multiple criteria decision making, when the initial data are numbers. We formulate the problem, which of the sensitivity analysis methods is more effective for the usage in the decision making process.Article in Lithuanian

  15. Clustering Analysis of Black-start Decision-making with a Large Group of Decision-makers

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2012-01-01

    The optimization of black start decisiommaking plays an important role in the rapid restoration of a power system after a major failure/outage. With the introduction of the concept of smart grids and the development of real-time communication networks, the black-start decision-makers are no longer limited to only one or a few power system experts such as dispatchers, but rather a large group of professional people in practice. The overall behaviors of a large decision-making group of decision-makers/experts are more complicated and unpredictable. However, the existing methods for black-start decision-making cannot handle the situations with a large group of decision-makers. Given this background, a clustering algorithm is presented to optimize the black-start decision-making problem with a large group of decision-makers. Group decision-making preferences are obtained by clustering analysis, and the final black-start decisiommaking results are achieved by combining the weights of black-start indexes and the preferences of the decision-making group. The effectiveness of the proposed method is validated by a practical case. This work extends the black-start decision-making problem to situations with a large group of decision-makers.

  16. Corrective Action Investigation Plan for Corrective Action Unit 99: Rainier Mesa/Shoshone Mountain, Nevada Test Site, Nevada

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    caldera as well as from more distant sources. This has resulted in a layered volcanic stratigraphy composed of thick deposits of welded and nonwelded ash-flow tuff and lava flows. These deposits are proximal to the source caldera and are interstratified with the more distal facies of fallout tephra and bedded reworked tuff from more distant sources. In each area, a similar volcanic sequence was deposited upon Paleozoic carbonate and siliciclastic rocks that are disrupted by various thrust faults, normal faults, and strike-slip faults. In both Rainier Mesa (km) to the southwest, and Tippipah Spring, 4 km to the north, and the tunnel complex is dry. Particle-tracking simulations performed during the value of information analysis (VOIA) (SNJV, 2004b) indicate that most of the regional groundwater that underlies the test locations at Rainier Mesa and Shoshone Mountain eventually follows similar and parallel paths and ultimately discharges in Death Valley and the Amargosa Desert. Particle-tracking simulations conducted for the regional groundwater flow and risk assessment indicated that contamination from Rainier Mesa and Shoshone Mountain were unlikely to leave the NTS during the 1,000-year period of interest (DOE/NV, 1997a). It is anticipated that CAU-scale modeling will modify these results somewhat, but it is not expected to radically alter the outcome of these previous particle-tracking simulations within the 1,000-year period of interest. The Rainier Mesa/Shoshone Mountain CAIP describes the corrective action investigation (CAI) to be conducted at the Rainier Mesa/Shoshone Mountain CAU to evaluate the extent of contamination in groundwater due to the underground nuclear testing. The CAI will be conducted by the UGTA Project, which is part of the NNSA/NSO Environmental Restoration Project (ERP). The purpose and scope of the CAI are presented in this section, followed by a summary of the entire document

  17. Multi-criteria decision analysis: Limitations, pitfalls, and practical difficulties

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kujawski, Edouard

    2003-02-01

    The 2002 Winter Olympics women's figure skating competition is used as a case study to illustrate some of the limitations, pitfalls, and practical difficulties of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA). The paper compares several widely used models for synthesizing the multiple attributes into a single aggregate value. The various MCDA models can provide conflicting rankings of the alternatives for a common set of information even under states of certainty. Analysts involved in MCDA need to deal with the following challenging tasks: (1) selecting an appropriate analysis method, and (2) properly interpreting the results. An additional trap is the availability of software tools that implement specific MCDA models that can beguile the user with quantitative scores. These conclusions are independent of the decision domain and they should help foster better MCDA practices in many fields including systems engineering trade studies.

  18. Municipal solid waste management system: decision support through systems analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Pires, Ana Lúcia Lourenço

    2010-01-01

    The present study intends to show the development of systems analysis model applied to solid waste management system, applied into AMARSUL, a solid waste management system responsible for the management of municipal solid waste produced in Setúbal peninsula, Portugal. The model developed intended to promote sustainable decision making, covering the four columns: technical, environmental, economic and social aspects. To develop the model an intensive literature review have been conducted. T...

  19. Use of Earth Observation Data for Environmental Monitoring in the Horn of Africa within the Framework of MESA IGAD THEMA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Atheru, Zachary; Fortunate, Muyambi

    2015-12-01

    The achievements and challenges on the implementation of activities of IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) regarding the use of Earth Observation data for environmental monitoring in the Horn of Africa within the framework of MESA IGAD THEMA. Examples of the outputs from the Land Degradation Assessment, Natural Habitat Conservation and Forest Monitoring are provided and explained. The difficulties faced in communicating and disseminating information particularly to decision makers are highlighted. Also outlined is the scope and expected results from the Monitoring for Environment and Security in Africa (MESA) IGAD Thematic action and emphasis placed on lessons learnt on (i) developing services from products (ii) strengthening national networks (III) disseminating and communicating information to decision and policy makers, and (iv) capacity building. The overall objective of the MESA programme in the IGAD region is to enhance land degradation mitigation, natural habitats assessment and Forest Monitoring for sustainable management of environmental resources through the use of Earth Observation data. This is done by strengthening the Earth Observation information management capacity of regional and national institutions in order to support decision and policy making processes. The services produce and distribute regularly land degradation index maps, land cover change indicators on IGAD selected Natural Habitats areas, Forest degradation, deforestation extent, vulnerability index map. It also develops the political and policy frameworks that are strengthened to ensure an active and sustainable participation of IGAD member states in global environmental surveillance initiatives and finally give adequate technical capacity of MESA IGAD stakeholders.

  20. Comparative Analysis of Serial Decision Tree Classification Algorithms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthew Nwokejizie Anyanwu

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available Classification of data objects based on a predefined knowledge of the objects is a data mining and knowledge management technique used in grouping similar data objects together. It can be defined as supervised learning algorithms as it assigns class labels to data objects based on the relationship between the data items with a pre-defined class label. Classification algorithms have a wide range of applications like churn prediction, fraud detection, artificial intelligence, and credit card rating etc. Also there are many classification algorithms available in literature but decision trees is the most commonly used because of its ease of implementation and easier to understand compared to other classification algorithms. Decision Tree classification algorithm can be implemented in a serial or parallel fashion based on the volume of data, memory space available on the computer resource and scalability of the algorithm. In this paper we will review the serial implementations of the decision tree algorithms, identify those that are commonly used. We will also use experimental analysis based on sample data records (Statlog data sets to evaluate the performance of the commonly used serial decision tree algorithms

  1. Decision analysis of treatment choices in the osteochondroses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bunch, W H

    1981-01-01

    Physicians tend to decry the lack of data on which they can make decisions. This is commendable, and all should encourage the pursuit of better data and more precise analysis. But decisions must be made, and each physician must deal with what data are available and evaluate them against all the general uncertainties. Equally important are the values that we place on the outcome of treatment. Much of the disagreement among physicians about treatment protocols involves a difference in values. While this is not necessarily bad, it points to the need to consider explicitly the value we place on a result or the morbidity possibly accompanying that result. In the osteochondroses, consideration of values will protect patients from overzealous treatment. Finally, the formality of a decision process should not necessarily modify a plan of treatment based on fundamentally sound principles, intuition, and anecdotal experience. Regardless of which factors represent the basis for an individual surgeon's selection of a particular approach, evaluation of both desirable and undesirable aspects of each alternative prevents impulsive acceptance of the most recently described, often unproven operation. Salter's aphorism: "The decision is more important than the incision," is particularly applicable in treatment of the osteochondroses.

  2. High Temperature Superconducting Terahertz Emitters with Various Mesa Structures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delfanazari, Kaveh; Tsujimoto, M.; Kashiwagi, T.; Asai, H.; Kitamura, T.; Yamamoto, T.; Sawamura, M.; Ishida, K.; Watanabe, C.; Sekimoto, S.; Minami, H.; Tachiki, M.; Hattori, T.; Klemm, R. A.; Kadowaki, K.

    2013-03-01

    In 2007, the first observation of the coherent terahertz (THz) electromagnetic (EM) waves from a mesa structures of intrinsic Josephson junctions (IJJs) in high temperature superconductor Bi2Sr2CaCu2O8+δ (Bi-2212) is reported. The ac-Josephson effect as well as the cavity resonance conditions is considered as the principle mechanism of the THz radiation. In order to understand the cavity effect in THz radiation from IJJ mesas more clearly, we studied mesas with various geometries; various kinds of triangles, and pentagonal mesas with various sizes and thicknesses. The focused ion beam (FIB) milling technique is used in all mesa fabrications. In this talk, we discuss our recent progress in THz emission observation in pentagonal mesas. This work has been supported in part by CREST-JST (Japan Science and Technology Agency), WPI-MANA project (NIMS).

  3. Choosing a Commercial Broiler Strain Based on Multicriteria Decision Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hosseini SA

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available With the complexity and amount of information in a wide variety of comparative performance reports in poultry production, making a decision is difficult. This problem is overcomed only when all data can be put into a common unit. For this purpose, five different decision making analysis approaches including  Maximin, Equally likely, Weighted average, Ordered weighted averages and Technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution were used to choose the best broiler strain among three ones based on their comparative performance and carcass characteristics. Commercial broiler strains of 6000 designated as R, A, and C (each strain 2000 were randomly allocated into three treatments of five replicates. In this study, all methods showed similar results except Maximin approach. Comparing different methods indicated that strain C with the highest world share market has the best performance followed by strains R and A.

  4. An information theory analysis of spatial decisions in cognitive development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scott, Nicole M; Sera, Maria D; Georgopoulos, Apostolos P

    2015-01-01

    Performance in a cognitive task can be considered as the outcome of a decision-making process operating across various knowledge domains or aspects of a single domain. Therefore, an analysis of these decisions in various tasks can shed light on the interplay and integration of these domains (or elements within a single domain) as they are associated with specific task characteristics. In this study, we applied an information theoretic approach to assess quantitatively the gain of knowledge across various elements of the cognitive domain of spatial, relational knowledge, as a function of development. Specifically, we examined changing spatial relational knowledge from ages 5 to 10 years. Our analyses consisted of a two-step process. First, we performed a hierarchical clustering analysis on the decisions made in 16 different tasks of spatial relational knowledge to determine which tasks were performed similarly at each age group as well as to discover how the tasks clustered together. We next used two measures of entropy to capture the gradual emergence of order in the development of relational knowledge. These measures of "cognitive entropy" were defined based on two independent aspects of chunking, namely (1) the number of clusters formed at each age group, and (2) the distribution of tasks across the clusters. We found that both measures of entropy decreased with age in a quadratic fashion and were positively and linearly correlated. The decrease in entropy and, therefore, gain of information during development was accompanied by improved performance. These results document, for the first time, the orderly and progressively structured "chunking" of decisions across the development of spatial relational reasoning and quantify this gain within a formal information-theoretic framework.

  5. Hydrologic Data for the Groundwater Flow and Contaminant Transport Model of Corrective Action Units 101 and 102: Central and Western Pahute Mesa, Nye County, Nevada, Revision 0

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Drici, Warda

    2004-02-01

    This report documents the analysis of the available hydrologic data conducted in support of the development of a Corrective Action Unit (CAU) groundwater flow model for Central and Western Pahute Mesa: CAUs 101 and 102.

  6. Contaminant Transport Parameters for the Groundwater Flow and Contaminant Transport Model of Corrective Action Units 101 and 102: Central and Western Pahute Mesa, Nye County, Nevada, Revision 0

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Drici, Warda

    2003-08-01

    This report documents the analysis of the available transport parameter data conducted in support of the development of a Corrective Action Unit (CAU) groundwater flow model for Central and Western Pahute Mesa: CAUs 101 and 102.

  7. Dynamic sensor action selection with Bayesian decision analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kristensen, Steen; Hansen, Volker; Kondak, Konstantin

    1998-10-01

    The aim of this work is to create a framework for the dynamic planning of sensor actions for an autonomous mobile robot. The framework uses Bayesian decision analysis, i.e., a decision-theoretic method, to evaluate possible sensor actions and selecting the most appropriate ones given the available sensors and what is currently known about the state of the world. Since sensing changes the knowledge of the system and since the current state of the robot (task, position, etc.) determines what knowledge is relevant, the evaluation and selection of sensing actions is an on-going process that effectively determines the behavior of the robot. The framework has been implemented on a real mobile robot and has been proven to be able to control in real-time the sensor actions of the system. In current work we are investigating methods to reduce or automatically generate the necessary model information needed by the decision- theoretic method to select the appropriate sensor actions.

  8. Soft Mathematical Aggregation in Safety Assessment and Decision Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cooper, J. Arlin

    1999-06-10

    This paper improves on some of the limitations of conventional safety assessment and decision analysis methods. It develops a top-down mathematical method for expressing imprecise individual metrics as possibilistic or fuzzy numbers and shows how they may be combined (aggregated) into an overall metric, also portraying the inherent uncertainty. Both positively contributing and negatively contributing factors are included. Metrics are weighted according to significance of the attribute and evaluated as to contribution toward the attribute. Aggregation is performed using exponential combination of the metrics, since the accumulating effect of such factors responds less and less to additional factors. This is termed soft mathematical aggregation. Dependence among the contributing factors is accounted for by incorporating subjective metrics on overlap of the factors and by correspondingly reducing the overall contribution of these combinations to the overall aggregation. Decisions corresponding to the meaningfulness of the results are facilitated in several ways. First, the results are compared to a soft threshold provided by a sigmoid function. Second, information is provided on input ''Importance'' and ''Sensitivity,'' in order to know where to place emphasis on controls that may be necessary. Third, trends in inputs and outputs are tracked in order to add important information to the decision process. The methodology has been implemented in software.

  9. Enhanced electricity system analysis for decision making - A reference book

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The objective of electricity system analysis in support of decision making is to provide comparative assessment results upon which relevant policy choices between alternative technology options and supply strategies can be based. This reference book offers analysts, planners and decision makers documented information on enhanced approaches to electricity system analysis, that can assist in achieving this objective. The book describes the main elements of comprehensive electricity system analysis and outlines an advanced integrated analysis and decision making framework for the electric power sector. Emphasis is placed on mechanisms for building consensus between interested and affected parties, and on aspects of planning that go beyond the traditional economic optimisation approach. The scope and contents of the book cover the topics to be addressed in decision making for the power sector and the process of integrating economic, social, health and environmental aspects in the comparative assessment of alternative options and strategies. The book describes and discusses overall frameworks, processes and state of the art methods and techniques available to analysts and planners for carrying out comparative assessment studies, in order to provide sound information to decision makers. This reference book is published as part of a series of technical reports and documents prepared in the framework of the inter-agency joint project (DECADES) on databases and methodologies for comparative assessment of different energy sources for electricity generation. The overall objective of the DECADES project is to enhance capabilities for incorporating economic, social, health and environmental issues in the comparative assessment of electricity generation options and strategies in the process of decision making for the power sector. The project, established in 1992, is carried out jointly by the European Commission (EC), the Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific

  10. Canine neoplasia and exposure to uranium mill tailings in Mesa County, Colorado

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A canine cancer registry was established for Mesa County, Colorado in order to collect material for a case control analysis of exposure to uranium tailings. Between 1979 and 1981, 212 cases of canine cancer were confirmed histologically. Based on the address provided at the time of diagnosis, 33 dogs (15.6%) lived in a house with some exposure to uranium tailings. A control group, comprised of dogs with a histologic diagnosis other than cancer, was stratified according to hospital and matched with cases on a 1:1 basis. No significant differences were noted with respect to exposure to uranium tailings for total cancers or cancers of specific sites including lymph node, breast, liver, testicle and bone. The overall estimated relative risk was 0.70 (95% CI 0.04 to 1.16). Canine population estimates were derived for Mesa County in order to develop crude incidence rates for the major types and sites of cancer. Crude rates were compared with those published previously for Alameda County, California and Tulsa County, Oklahoma. Mesa County rates for total cancer incidence, connective tissue tumors and non melanoma skin cancer were higher than those reported for Alameda County. When compared with Tulsa County, Mesa County rates for total cancer, breast cancer, melanoma and mastocytoma were lower than expected while rates for osteosarcoma, hemangiosarcoma and fibrosarcoma significantly exceeded expected values

  11. Fuzzy Multicriteria Decision Analysis for Adaptive Watershed Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, N.

    2006-12-01

    The dramatic changes of societal complexity due to intensive interactions among agricultural, industrial, and municipal sectors have resulted in acute issues of water resources redistribution and water quality management in many river basins. Given the fact that integrated watershed management is more a political and societal than a technical challenge, there is a need for developing a compelling method leading to justify a water-based land use program in some critical regions. Adaptive watershed management is viewed as an indispensable tool nowadays for providing step-wise constructive decision support that is concerned with all related aspects of the water consumption cycle and those facilities affecting water quality and quantity temporally and spatially. Yet the greatest challenge that decision makers face today is to consider how to leverage ambiguity, paradox, and uncertainty to their competitive advantage of management policy quantitatively. This paper explores a fuzzy multicriteria evaluation method for water resources redistribution and subsequent water quality management with respect to a multipurpose channel-reservoir system--the Tseng- Wen River Basin, South Taiwan. Four fuzzy operators tailored for this fuzzy multicriteria decision analysis depict greater flexibility in representing the complexity of various possible trade-offs among management alternatives constrained by physical, economic, and technical factors essential for adaptive watershed management. The management strategies derived may enable decision makers to integrate a vast number of internal weirs, water intakes, reservoirs, drainage ditches, transfer pipelines, and wastewater treatment facilities within the basin and bring up the permitting issue for transboundary diversion from a neighboring river basin. Experience gained indicates that the use of different types of fuzzy operators is highly instructive, which also provide unique guidance collectively for achieving the overarching goals

  12. Choices, choices: the application of multi-criteria decision analysis to a food safety decision-making problem.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fazil, A; Rajic, A; Sanchez, J; McEwen, S

    2008-11-01

    In the food safety arena, the decision-making process can be especially difficult. Decision makers are often faced with social and fiscal pressures when attempting to identify an appropriate balance among several choices. Concurrently, policy and decision makers in microbial food safety are under increasing pressure to demonstrate that their policies and decisions are made using transparent and accountable processes. In this article, we present a multi-criteria decision analysis approach that can be used to address the problem of trying to select a food safety intervention while balancing various criteria. Criteria that are important when selecting an intervention were determined, as a result of an expert consultation, to include effectiveness, cost, weight of evidence, and practicality associated with the interventions. The multi-criteria decision analysis approach we present is able to consider these criteria and arrive at a ranking of interventions. It can also provide a clear justification for the ranking as well as demonstrate to stakeholders, through a scenario analysis approach, how to potentially converge toward common ground. While this article focuses on the problem of selecting food safety interventions, the range of applications in the food safety arena is truly diverse and can be a significant tool in assisting decisions that need to be coherent, transparent, and justifiable. Most importantly, it is a significant contributor when there is a need to strike a fine balance between various potentially competing alternatives and/or stakeholder groups.

  13. FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE INDICATORS OF TUNISIAN COMPANIES: DECISION TREE ANALYSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ferdaws Ezzi

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The article at hand is an attempt to identify the various indicators that are more likely to explain the financial performance of Tunisian companies. In this respective, the emphasis is put on diversification, innovation, intrapersonal and interpersonal skills. Indeed, they are the appropriate strategies that can designate emotional intelligence, the level of indebtedness, the firm age and size as the proper variables that support the target variable. The "decision tree", as a new data analysis method, is utilized to analyze our work. The results involve the construction of a crucial model which is used to achieve a sound financial performance.

  14. Composite tissue allotransplantation of the face: Decision analysis model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cugno, Sabrina; Sprague, Sheila; Duku, Eric; Thoma, Achilleas

    2007-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Facial composite tissue allotransplantation is a potential reconstructive option for severe facial disfigurement. The purpose of the present investigation was to use decision analysis modelling to ascertain the expected quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained with face transplantation (versus remaining in a disfigured state) in an effort to assist surgeons with the decision of whether to adopt this procedure. STUDY DESIGN: The probabilities of potential complications associated with facial allotransplantation were identified by a comprehensive review of kidney and hand transplant literature. A decision analysis tree illustrating possible health states for face allotransplantation was then constructed. Utilities were obtained from 30 participants, using the standard gamble and time trade-off measures. The utilities were then translated into QALYs, and the expected QALYs gained with transplantation were computed. RESULTS: Severe facial deformity was associated with an average of 7.34 QALYs. Allotransplantation of the face imparted an expected gain in QALYs of between 16.2 and 27.3 years. CONCLUSIONS: The current debate within the medical community surrounding facial composite tissue allotransplantation has centred on the issue of inducing a state of immunocompromise in a physically healthy individual for a non-life-saving procedure. However, the latter must be weighed against the potential social and psychological benefits that transplantation would confer. As demonstrated by a gain of 26.9 QALYs, participants’ valuation of quality of life is notably greater for face transplantation with its side effects of immunosuppression than for a state of uncompromised physical health with severe facial disfigurement. PMID:19554146

  15. KVALITETA MESA LUBINA TIJEKOM POHRANE NA LEDU

    OpenAIRE

    Bojanić, Krunoslav; Kozačinski, Lidija; Filipović, Ivana; Zdolec, Nevijo; Njari, Bela

    2009-01-01

    Cilj ovog rada bio je odrediti održivost mesa lubina tijekom njegove pohrane na ledu u trajanju od 12 dana pracenjem senzornih, fizikalno-kemijskih i mikrobioloških parametara kakvoce i higijenske ispravnosti. U tu je svrhu pretraženo 30 lubina 2., 4., 6., 9. i 12. dana pohrane na ledu na 3º C. Senzorna ocjena kvalitete ocijenjena je Quality Index Method testom (QIM) izra!enom za lubina, Dicentrarchus labrax (Icelandic Fisheries Laboratories) i Market testom. Uzorci ri...

  16. 36 CFR 7.39 - Mesa Verde National Park.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 36 Parks, Forests, and Public Property 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Mesa Verde National Park. 7.39 Section 7.39 Parks, Forests, and Public Property NATIONAL PARK SERVICE, DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR SPECIAL REGULATIONS, AREAS OF THE NATIONAL PARK SYSTEM § 7.39 Mesa Verde National Park. (a) Visiting...

  17. MESAFace, a graphical interface to analyze the MESA output

    CERN Document Server

    Giannotti, Maurizio; Mohammed, Aaron

    2012-01-01

    MESA (Modules for Experiments in Stellar Astrophysics) has become very popular among astrophysicists as a powerful and reliable code to simulate stellar evolution. Analyzing the output data thoroughly may, however, present some challenges and be rather time-consuming. Here we describe MESAFace, a graphical and dynamical interface which provides an intuitive, efficient and quick way to analyze the MESA output.

  18. Applications of decision analysis and related techniques to industrial engineering problems at KSC

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evans, Gerald W.

    1995-01-01

    This report provides: (1) a discussion of the origination of decision analysis problems (well-structured problems) from ill-structured problems; (2) a review of the various methodologies and software packages for decision analysis and related problem areas; (3) a discussion of how the characteristics of a decision analysis problem affect the choice of modeling methodologies, thus providing a guide as to when to choose a particular methodology; and (4) examples of applications of decision analysis to particular problems encountered by the IE Group at KSC. With respect to the specific applications at KSC, particular emphasis is placed on the use of the Demos software package (Lumina Decision Systems, 1993).

  19. Portfolio Decision Analysis Framework for Value-Focused Ecosystem Management.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matteo Convertino

    Full Text Available Management of natural resources in coastal ecosystems is a complex process that is made more challenging by the need for stakeholders to confront the prospect of sea level rise and a host of other environmental stressors. This situation is especially true for coastal military installations, where resource managers need to balance conflicting objectives of environmental conservation against military mission. The development of restoration plans will necessitate incorporating stakeholder preferences, and will, moreover, require compliance with applicable federal/state laws and regulations. To promote the efficient allocation of scarce resources in space and time, we develop a portfolio decision analytic (PDA framework that integrates models yielding policy-dependent predictions for changes in land cover and species metapopulations in response to restoration plans, under different climate change scenarios. In a manner that is somewhat analogous to financial portfolios, infrastructure and natural resources are classified as human and natural assets requiring management. The predictions serve as inputs to a Multi Criteria Decision Analysis model (MCDA that is used to measure the benefits of restoration plans, as well as to construct Pareto frontiers that represent optimal portfolio allocations of restoration actions and resources. Optimal plans allow managers to maintain or increase asset values by contrasting the overall degradation of the habitat and possible increased risk of species decline against the benefits of mission success. The optimal combination of restoration actions that emerge from the PDA framework allows decision-makers to achieve higher environmental benefits, with equal or lower costs, than those achievable by adopting the myopic prescriptions of the MCDA model. The analytic framework presented here is generalizable for the selection of optimal management plans in any ecosystem where human use of the environment conflicts with the

  20. Portfolio Decision Analysis Framework for Value-Focused Ecosystem Management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Convertino, Matteo; Valverde, L James

    2013-01-01

    Management of natural resources in coastal ecosystems is a complex process that is made more challenging by the need for stakeholders to confront the prospect of sea level rise and a host of other environmental stressors. This situation is especially true for coastal military installations, where resource managers need to balance conflicting objectives of environmental conservation against military mission. The development of restoration plans will necessitate incorporating stakeholder preferences, and will, moreover, require compliance with applicable federal/state laws and regulations. To promote the efficient allocation of scarce resources in space and time, we develop a portfolio decision analytic (PDA) framework that integrates models yielding policy-dependent predictions for changes in land cover and species metapopulations in response to restoration plans, under different climate change scenarios. In a manner that is somewhat analogous to financial portfolios, infrastructure and natural resources are classified as human and natural assets requiring management. The predictions serve as inputs to a Multi Criteria Decision Analysis model (MCDA) that is used to measure the benefits of restoration plans, as well as to construct Pareto frontiers that represent optimal portfolio allocations of restoration actions and resources. Optimal plans allow managers to maintain or increase asset values by contrasting the overall degradation of the habitat and possible increased risk of species decline against the benefits of mission success. The optimal combination of restoration actions that emerge from the PDA framework allows decision-makers to achieve higher environmental benefits, with equal or lower costs, than those achievable by adopting the myopic prescriptions of the MCDA model. The analytic framework presented here is generalizable for the selection of optimal management plans in any ecosystem where human use of the environment conflicts with the needs of

  1. BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE TOOLS FOR DATA ANALYSIS AND DECISION MAKING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    DEJAN ZDRAVESKI

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Every business is dynamic in nature and is affected by various external and internal factors. These factors include external market conditions, competitors, internal restructuring and re-alignment, operational optimization and paradigm shifts in the business itself. New regulations and restrictions, in combination with the above factors, contribute to the constant evolutionary nature of compelling, business-critical information; the kind of information that an organization needs to sustain and thrive. Business intelligence (“BI” is broad term that encapsulates the process of gathering information pertaining to a business and the market it functions in. This information when collated and analyzed in the right manner, can provide vital insights into the business and can be a tool to improve efficiency, reduce costs, reduce time lags and bring many positive changes. A business intelligence application helps to achieve precisely that. Successful organizations maximize the use of their data assets through business intelligence technology. The first data warehousing and decision support tools introduced companies to the power and benefits of accessing and analyzing their corporate data. Business users at every level found new, more sophisticated ways to analyze and report on the information mined from their vast data warehouses.Choosing a Business Intelligence offering is an important decision for an enterprise, one that will have a significant impact throughout the enterprise. The choice of a BI offering will affect people up and down the chain of command (senior management, analysts, and line managers and across functional areas (sales, finance, and operations. It will affect business users, application developers, and IT professionals. BI applications include the activities of decision support systems (DSS, query and reporting, online analyticalprocessing (OLAP, statistical analysis, forecasting, and data mining. Another way of phrasing this is

  2. GaN on sapphire mesa technology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Herfurth, Patrick; Men, Yakiv; Kohn, Erhard [Institute of Electron Devices and Circuits, Ulm University, Albert-Einstein Allee 45, 89081 Ulm (Germany); Roesch, Rudolph [Institute of Optoelectronics, Albert-Einstein Allee 45, 89081 Ulm (Germany); Carlin, Jean-Francois; Grandjean, Nicolas [Laboratory of Advanced Semiconductors for Photonics and Electronics, Ecole Polytechnique Federal de Lausanne, 1015 Lausanne (Switzerland)

    2012-03-15

    This contribution reports on a GaN on sapphire mesa technology for lattice matched InAlN/GaN HEMTs similar to a silicon on insulator technology. Ultrathin buffer layers between 500 nm and 100 nm have been deep mesa etched down to the substrate to avoid cross talk between devices through the buffer and provide full transparency outside the active device area (of special interest to biochemical sensor applications).The heterostructure characteristics were: N{sub S}> 1.6 x 10{sup 13} cm{sup -2}, R{sub sh}< 600 {omega}/{open_square}. 0.25 {mu}m gate length HEMT device characteristics are moderate, but essentially similar down to 200 nm buffer thickness. Devices on 100 nm buffer layer are still difficult to reproduce. I{sub on}/I{sub off} was up to 10{sup 9} and sub-threshold slopes down to 90 mV/dec (copyright 2012 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH and Co. KGaA, Weinheim) (orig.)

  3. A distance-based uncertainty analysis approach to multi-criteria decision analysis for water resource decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hyde, K M; Maier, H R; Colby, C B

    2005-12-01

    The choice among alternative water supply sources is generally based on the fundamental objective of maximising the ratio of benefits to costs. There is, however, a need to consider sustainability, the environment and social implications in regional water resources planning, in addition to economics. In order to achieve this, multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) techniques can be used. Various sources of uncertainty exist in the application of MCDA methods, including the selection of the MCDA method, elicitation of criteria weights and assignment of criteria performance values. The focus of this paper is on the uncertainty in the criteria weights. Sensitivity analysis can be used to analyse the effects of uncertainties associated with the criteria weights. Two existing sensitivity methods are described in this paper and a new distance-based approach is proposed which overcomes limitations of these methods. The benefits of the proposed approach are the concurrent alteration of the criteria weights, the applicability of the method to a range of MCDA techniques and the identification of the most critical criteria weights. The existing and proposed methods are applied to three case studies and the results indicate that simultaneous consideration of the uncertainty in the criteria weights should be an integral part of the decision making process.

  4. A Decision Analysis Tool for Climate Impacts, Adaptations, and Vulnerabilities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Omitaomu, Olufemi A [ORNL; Parish, Esther S [ORNL; Nugent, Philip J [ORNL

    2016-01-01

    Climate change related extreme events (such as flooding, storms, and drought) are already impacting millions of people globally at a cost of billions of dollars annually. Hence, there are urgent needs for urban areas to develop adaptation strategies that will alleviate the impacts of these extreme events. However, lack of appropriate decision support tools that match local applications is limiting local planning efforts. In this paper, we present a quantitative analysis and optimization system with customized decision support modules built on geographic information system (GIS) platform to bridge this gap. This platform is called Urban Climate Adaptation Tool (Urban-CAT). For all Urban-CAT models, we divide a city into a grid with tens of thousands of cells; then compute a list of metrics for each cell from the GIS data. These metrics are used as independent variables to predict climate impacts, compute vulnerability score, and evaluate adaptation options. Overall, the Urban-CAT system has three layers: data layer (that contains spatial data, socio-economic and environmental data, and analytic data), middle layer (that handles data processing, model management, and GIS operation), and application layer (that provides climate impacts forecast, adaptation optimization, and site evaluation). The Urban-CAT platform can guide city and county governments in identifying and planning for effective climate change adaptation strategies.

  5. Markov Modeling with Soft Aggregation for Safety and Decision Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    COOPER,J. ARLIN

    1999-09-01

    The methodology in this report improves on some of the limitations of many conventional safety assessment and decision analysis methods. A top-down mathematical approach is developed for decomposing systems and for expressing imprecise individual metrics as possibilistic or fuzzy numbers. A ''Markov-like'' model is developed that facilitates combining (aggregating) inputs into overall metrics and decision aids, also portraying the inherent uncertainty. A major goal of Markov modeling is to help convey the top-down system perspective. One of the constituent methodologies allows metrics to be weighted according to significance of the attribute and aggregated nonlinearly as to contribution. This aggregation is performed using exponential combination of the metrics, since the accumulating effect of such factors responds less and less to additional factors. This is termed ''soft'' mathematical aggregation. Dependence among the contributing factors is accounted for by incorporating subjective metrics on ''overlap'' of the factors as well as by correspondingly reducing the overall contribution of these combinations to the overall aggregation. Decisions corresponding to the meaningfulness of the results are facilitated in several ways. First, the results are compared to a soft threshold provided by a sigmoid function. Second, information is provided on input ''Importance'' and ''Sensitivity,'' in order to know where to place emphasis on considering new controls that may be necessary. Third, trends in inputs and outputs are tracked in order to obtain significant information% including cyclic information for the decision process. A practical example from the air transportation industry is used to demonstrate application of the methodology. Illustrations are given for developing a structure (along with recommended inputs and weights) for air transportation oversight at three

  6. Towards a controlled sensitivity analysis of model development decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, Martyn; Nijssen, Bart

    2016-04-01

    The current generation of hydrologic models have followed a myriad of different development paths, making it difficult for the community to test underlying hypotheses and identify a clear path to model improvement. Model comparison studies have been undertaken to explore model differences, but these studies have not been able to meaningfully attribute inter-model differences in predictive ability to individual model components because there are often too many structural and implementation differences among the models considered. As a consequence, model comparison studies to date have provided limited insight into the causes of differences in model behavior, and model development has often relied on the inspiration and experience of individual modelers rather than a systematic analysis of model shortcomings. This presentation will discuss a unified approach to process-based hydrologic modeling to enable controlled and systematic analysis of multiple model representations (hypotheses) of hydrologic processes and scaling behavior. Our approach, which we term the Structure for Unifying Multiple Modeling Alternatives (SUMMA), formulates a general set of conservation equations, providing the flexibility to experiment with different spatial representations, different flux parameterizations, different model parameter values, and different time stepping schemes. We will discuss the use of SUMMA to systematically analyze different model development decisions, focusing on both analysis of simulations for intensively instrumented research watersheds as well as simulations across a global dataset of FLUXNET sites. The intent of the presentation is to demonstrate how the systematic analysis of model shortcomings can help identify model weaknesses and inform future model development priorities.

  7. Archaeological investigations on the Buckboard Mesa Road Project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Amick, D.S.; Henton, G.H.; Pippin, L.C.

    1991-10-01

    In 1986, the Desert Research Institute (DRI) conducted an archaeological reconnaissance of a new alignment for the Buckboard Mesa Road on the Nevada Test Site for the Department of Energy (DOE). During this reconnaissance, several archaeological sites of National Register quality were discovered and recorded including a large quarry, site 26Ny4892, and a smaller lithic scatter, site 26Ny4894. Analysis of the debitage at 26Ny4892 indicates that this area was used primarily as a quarry for relatively small cobbles of obsidian found in the alluvium. Lithic reduction techniques used here are designed for efficiently reducing small pieces of toolstone and are oriented towards producing flake blanks from small cores and bifacially reducing exhausted cores. Projectile point cross references indicate that the area has seen at least casual use for about 10,000 years and more sustained use for the last 3,000 years. Initial obsidian hydration measurements indicate sustained use of the quarry for about the last 3,000 years although the loci of activities appear to change over time. Based on this study, the DRI recommends that quarrying activities in the area of 26Ny4892 are sufficiently sampled and that additional investigations into that aspect of prehistoric activity in the area are not necessary. This does not apply to other aspects of prehistoric use. DRI recommends that preconstruction surveys continue to identify nonquarrying, prehistoric utilization of the area. With the increased traffic on the Buckboard Mesa Road, there is a greater potential for vandalism to sites of National Register-quality located near the road. The DRI recommends that during the orientation briefing the workers at the Test Site be educated about the importance of cultural resources and the need for their protection. 202 refs., 41 figs., 52 tabs.

  8. Generalized concavity in fuzzy optimization and decision analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Ramík, Jaroslav

    2002-01-01

    Convexity of sets in linear spaces, and concavity and convexity of functions, lie at the root of beautiful theoretical results that are at the same time extremely useful in the analysis and solution of optimization problems, including problems of either single objective or multiple objectives. Not all of these results rely necessarily on convexity and concavity; some of the results can guarantee that each local optimum is also a global optimum, giving these methods broader application to a wider class of problems. Hence, the focus of the first part of the book is concerned with several types of generalized convex sets and generalized concave functions. In addition to their applicability to nonconvex optimization, these convex sets and generalized concave functions are used in the book's second part, where decision-making and optimization problems under uncertainty are investigated. Uncertainty in the problem data often cannot be avoided when dealing with practical problems. Errors occur in real-world data for...

  9. A Speedy Cardiovascular Diseases Classifier Using Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wah Ching Lee

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Each year, some 30 percent of global deaths are caused by cardiovascular diseases. This figure is worsening due to both the increasing elderly population and severe shortages of medical personnel. The development of a cardiovascular diseases classifier (CDC for auto-diagnosis will help address solve the problem. Former CDCs did not achieve quick evaluation of cardiovascular diseases. In this letter, a new CDC to achieve speedy detection is investigated. This investigation incorporates the analytic hierarchy process (AHP-based multiple criteria decision analysis (MCDA to develop feature vectors using a Support Vector Machine. The MCDA facilitates the efficient assignment of appropriate weightings to potential patients, thus scaling down the number of features. Since the new CDC will only adopt the most meaningful features for discrimination between healthy persons versus cardiovascular disease patients, a speedy detection of cardiovascular diseases has been successfully implemented.

  10. Ethical analysis to improve decision-making on health technologies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Saarni, Samuli I; Hofmann, Bjørn; Lampe, Kristian;

    2008-01-01

    beyond effectiveness and costs to also considering the social, organizational and ethical implications of technologies. However, a commonly accepted method for analysing the ethical aspects of health technologies is lacking. This paper describes a model for ethical analysis of health technology...... that is easy and flexible to use in different organizational settings and cultures. The model is part of the EUnetHTA project, which focuses on the transferability of HTAs between countries. The EUnetHTA ethics model is based on the insight that the whole HTA process is value laden. It is not sufficient...... to only analyse the ethical consequences of a technology, but also the ethical issues of the whole HTA process must be considered. Selection of assessment topics, methods and outcomes is essentially a value-laden decision. Health technologies may challenge moral or cultural values and beliefs...

  11. TENDENCY OF IMPROVEMENT ANALYSIS OF VENTURE ACTIVITY FOR MANAGEMENT DECISIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G.Yu. Iakovetс

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The questions concerning the definition of current trends and prospects of venture financing new innovative enterprises as one of the most effective and alternative, but with a high degree of risk financing sources of the entity. The features of venture financing that is different from other sources of business financing, as well as income from investments of venture capital can greatly exceed the volume of investments, but at the same time such financing risks are significant, so it all makes it necessary to build an effective system of venture capital investments in the workplace. In the course of the study also revealed problems of analysis and minimization of risks in the performance of venture financing of innovative enterprises. Defining characteristics analysis and risk assessment of venture financing helps to find ways to minimize and systematization, avoidance and prevention of risks in the performance of venture capital. The study also identified the major areas of improvement analysis of venture capital for management decisions.

  12. Analysis of ETMS Data Quality for Traffic Flow Management Decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chatterji, Gano B.; Sridhar, Banavar; Kim, Douglas

    2003-01-01

    The data needed for air traffic flow management decision support tools is provided by the Enhanced Traffic Management System (ETMS). This includes both the tools that are in current use and the ones being developed for future deployment. Since the quality of decision support provided by all these tools will be influenced by the quality of the input ETMS data, an assessment of ETMS data quality is needed. Motivated by this desire, ETMS data quality is examined in this paper in terms of the unavailability of flight plans, deviation from the filed flight plans, departure delays, altitude errors and track data drops. Although many of these data quality issues are not new, little is known about their extent. A goal of this paper is to document the magnitude of data quality issues supported by numerical analysis of ETMS data. Guided by this goal, ETMS data for a 24-hour period were processed to determine the number of aircraft with missing flight plan messages at any given instant of time. Results are presented for aircraft above 18,000 feet altitude and also at all altitudes. Since deviation from filed flight plan is also a major cause of trajectory-modeling errors, statistics of deviations are presented. Errors in proposed departure times and ETMS-generated vertical profiles are also shown. A method for conditioning the vertical profiles for improving demand prediction accuracy is described. Graphs of actual sector counts obtained using these vertical profiles are compared with those obtained using the Host data for sectors in the Fort Worth Center to demonstrate the benefit of preprocessing. Finally, results are presented to quantify the extent of data drops. A method for propagating track positions during ETMS data drops is also described.

  13. The value of decision tree analysis in planning anaesthetic care in obstetrics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bamber, J H; Evans, S A

    2016-08-01

    The use of decision tree analysis is discussed in the context of the anaesthetic and obstetric management of a young pregnant woman with joint hypermobility syndrome with a history of insensitivity to local anaesthesia and a previous difficult intubation due to a tongue tumour. The multidisciplinary clinical decision process resulted in the woman being delivered without complication by elective caesarean section under general anaesthesia after an awake fibreoptic intubation. The decision process used is reviewed and compared retrospectively to a decision tree analytical approach. The benefits and limitations of using decision tree analysis are reviewed and its application in obstetric anaesthesia is discussed. PMID:27026589

  14. SIDEKICK: Genomic data driven analysis and decision-making framework

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yoon Kihoon

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Scientists striving to unlock mysteries within complex biological systems face myriad barriers in effectively integrating available information to enhance their understanding. While experimental techniques and available data sources are rapidly evolving, useful information is dispersed across a variety of sources, and sources of the same information often do not use the same format or nomenclature. To harness these expanding resources, scientists need tools that bridge nomenclature differences and allow them to integrate, organize, and evaluate the quality of information without extensive computation. Results Sidekick, a genomic data driven analysis and decision making framework, is a web-based tool that provides a user-friendly intuitive solution to the problem of information inaccessibility. Sidekick enables scientists without training in computation and data management to pursue answers to research questions like "What are the mechanisms for disease X" or "Does the set of genes associated with disease X also influence other diseases." Sidekick enables the process of combining heterogeneous data, finding and maintaining the most up-to-date data, evaluating data sources, quantifying confidence in results based on evidence, and managing the multi-step research tasks needed to answer these questions. We demonstrate Sidekick's effectiveness by showing how to accomplish a complex published analysis in a fraction of the original time with no computational effort using Sidekick. Conclusions Sidekick is an easy-to-use web-based tool that organizes and facilitates complex genomic research, allowing scientists to explore genomic relationships and formulate hypotheses without computational effort. Possible analysis steps include gene list discovery, gene-pair list discovery, various enrichments for both types of lists, and convenient list manipulation. Further, Sidekick's ability to characterize pairs of genes offers new ways to

  15. Multi-Criteria Decision Making for a Spatial Decision Support System on the Analysis of Changing Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olyazadeh, Roya; van Westen, Cees; Bakker, Wim H.; Aye, Zar Chi; Jaboyedoff, Michel; Derron, Marc-Henri

    2014-05-01

    Natural hazard risk management requires decision making in several stages. Decision making on alternatives for risk reduction planning starts with an intelligence phase for recognition of the decision problems and identifying the objectives. Development of the alternatives and assigning the variable by decision makers to each alternative are employed to the design phase. Final phase evaluates the optimal choice by comparing the alternatives, defining indicators, assigning a weight to each and ranking them. This process is referred to as Multi-Criteria Decision Making analysis (MCDM), Multi-Criteria Evaluation (MCE) or Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA). In the framework of the ongoing 7th Framework Program "CHANGES" (2011-2014, Grant Agreement No. 263953) of the European Commission, a Spatial Decision Support System is under development, that has the aim to analyse changes in hydro-meteorological risk and provide support to selecting the best risk reduction alternative. This paper describes the module for Multi-Criteria Decision Making analysis (MCDM) that incorporates monetary and non-monetary criteria in the analysis of the optimal alternative. The MCDM module consists of several components. The first step is to define criteria (or Indicators) which are subdivided into disadvantages (criteria that indicate the difficulty for implementing the risk reduction strategy, also referred to as Costs) and advantages (criteria that indicate the favorability, also referred to as benefits). In the next step the stakeholders can use the developed web-based tool for prioritizing criteria and decision matrix. Public participation plays a role in decision making and this is also planned through the use of a mobile web-version where the general local public can indicate their agreement on the proposed alternatives. The application is being tested through a case study related to risk reduction of a mountainous valley in the Alps affected by flooding. Four alternatives are evaluated in

  16. Verbal rating of alternative research reactors using fuzzy decision analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    An approach is introduced here for making decisions about alternative research reactor types based on their compatibility with the environment of Saudi Arabia and is applied to the choice between pool, light water tank, heavy water tank, and TRIGA reactors. The method is based on the fuzzy decision theory, and it allows for consideration of the availability of required local resources as well as ease of acquisition of imported resources, community acceptance, and future expandability. The use of fuzzy decision theory can overcome the numerical precision of a decision maker's judgment by allowing verbal rating and weighting for each attribute and subattribute

  17. Magnetotelluric Data, Rainier Mesa/Shoshone Mountain, Nevada Test Site, Nevada.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jackie M. Williams; Jay A. Sampson; Brian D. Rodriguez; and Theodore H. Asch.

    2006-11-03

    Shoshone Mountain, to Buckboard Mesa in the south, and onto Rainier Mesa in the north. Subsequent interpretation will include a three-dimensional (3-D) character analysis and a two-dimensional (2-D) resistivity model. The purpose of this report is to release the MT sounding data for the twenty-six stations shown in figure 1. No interpretation of the data is included here.

  18. Astronomical Alignments of the Sun Temple site in Mesa Verde National Park

    CERN Document Server

    Towers, Sherry

    2016-01-01

    Summer 2015 marked the 100th anniversary of the excavation by J.W. Fewkes of the Sun Temple in Mesa Verde National Park, Colorado; an ancient ceremonial complex of unknown purpose, prominently located atop a mesa, constructed by the Pueblo Indians approximately 1000 years ago. In this analysis we perform a digital survey of the site, and examine the possibility that four key tower-like elements of the complex were used for observation of the rise or set of celestial bodies known to be sacred to the Pueblo Indians. We find statistically significant evidence that the site was used for astronomical observation of the rise and/or set of nearly all such bodies. The Sun Temple appears to represent the most comprehensive prehistoric astronomical observatory yet uncovered.

  19. Child Protection Decision Making: A Factorial Analysis Using Case Vignettes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stokes, Jacqueline; Schmidt, Glen

    2012-01-01

    This study explored decision making by child protection social workers in the province of British Columbia, Canada. A factorial survey method was used in which case vignettes were constructed by randomly assigning a number of key characteristics associated with decision making in child protection. Child protection social workers (n = 118) assessed…

  20. Structure and analysis of IS decision-making processes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boonstra, A.

    2003-01-01

    Decisions to invest in information systems (IS) are made by many organisations on a very regular basis. Such decisions can vary from quickly identifying the problem, screening options and choosing a solution in a very straightforward way, to very extensive and repeated search, screen, design and neg

  1. Clinical Decision Analysis and Markov Modeling for Surgeons: An Introductory Overview.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hogendoorn, Wouter; Moll, Frans L; Sumpio, Bauer E; Hunink, M G Myriam

    2016-08-01

    This study addresses the use of decision analysis and Markov models to make contemplated decisions for surgical problems. Decision analysis and decision modeling in surgical research are increasing, but many surgeons are unfamiliar with the techniques and are skeptical of the results. The goal of this review is to familiarize surgeons with techniques and terminology used in decision analytic papers, to provide the reader a practical guide to read these papers, and to ensure that surgeons can critically appraise the quality of published clinical decision models and draw well founded conclusions from such reports.First, a brief explanation of decision analysis and Markov models is presented in simple steps, followed by an overview of the components of a decision and Markov model. Subsequently, commonly used terms and definitions are described and explained, including quality-adjusted life-years, disability-adjusted life-years, discounting, half-cycle correction, cycle length, probabilistic sensitivity analysis, incremental cost-effectiveness ratio, and the willingness-to-pay threshold.Finally, the advantages and limitations of research with Markov models are described, and new modeling techniques and future perspectives are discussed. It is important that surgeons are able to understand conclusions from decision analytic studies and are familiar with the specific definitions of the terminology used in the field to keep up with surgical research. Decision analysis can guide treatment strategies when complex clinical questions need to be answered and is a necessary and useful addition to the surgical research armamentarium. PMID:26756750

  2. Selection of Representative Models for Decision Analysis Under Uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meira, Luis A. A.; Coelho, Guilherme P.; Santos, Antonio Alberto S.; Schiozer, Denis J.

    2016-03-01

    The decision-making process in oil fields includes a step of risk analysis associated with the uncertainties present in the variables of the problem. Such uncertainties lead to hundreds, even thousands, of possible scenarios that are supposed to be analyzed so an effective production strategy can be selected. Given this high number of scenarios, a technique to reduce this set to a smaller, feasible subset of representative scenarios is imperative. The selected scenarios must be representative of the original set and also free of optimistic and pessimistic bias. This paper is devoted to propose an assisted methodology to identify representative models in oil fields. To do so, first a mathematical function was developed to model the representativeness of a subset of models with respect to the full set that characterizes the problem. Then, an optimization tool was implemented to identify the representative models of any problem, considering not only the cross-plots of the main output variables, but also the risk curves and the probability distribution of the attribute-levels of the problem. The proposed technique was applied to two benchmark cases and the results, evaluated by experts in the field, indicate that the obtained solutions are richer than those identified by previously adopted manual approaches. The program bytecode is available under request.

  3. Identifying a preservation zone using multi–criteria decision analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Farashi, A.

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Zoning of a protected area is an approach to partition landscape into various land use units. The management of these landscape units can reduce conflicts caused by human activities. Tandoreh National Park is one of the most biologically diverse, protected areas in Iran. Although the area is generally designed to protect biodiversity, there are many conflicts between biodiversity conservation and human activities. For instance, the area is highly controversial and has been considered as an impediment to local economic development, such as tourism, grazing, road construction, and cultivation. In order to reduce human conflicts with biodiversity conservation in Tandoreh National Park, safe zones need to be established and human activities need to be moved out of the zones. In this study we used a systematic methodology to integrate a participatory process with Geographic Information Systems (GIS using a multi–criteria decision analysis (MCDA technique to guide a zoning scheme for the Tandoreh National Park, Iran. Our results show that the northern and eastern parts of the Tandoreh National Park that were close to rural areas and farmlands returned less desirability for selection as a preservation area. Rocky Mountains were the most important and most destructed areas and abandoned plains were the least important criteria for preservation in the area. Furthermore, the results reveal that the land properties were considered to be important for protection based on the obtaine

  4. ACCOUNTING INFORMATION - THE BASE OF FINANCIAL ANALYSIS IN INVESTMENT DECISIONS

    OpenAIRE

    Cristian Ionel VĂTĂŞOIU; Mihae la GHEORGHE; Ioan Dumitru MOTONIU; Ileana Sorina (Rakos) BOCA

    2010-01-01

    Accounting information must allow both the current and potential investors to identify measure, classify, and evaluate all operations and activities of an enterprise. Undoubtedly, one of the most important is that accounting provides accounting information. This allows management decisions and proper investment by current and potential investors. This paper aims to show that it is important accounting information in making management decisions and investments, wh...

  5. REVASCULARIZATION FOR FEMOROPOPLITEAL DISEASE - A DECISION AND COST-EFFECTIVENESS ANALYSIS

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    HUNINK, MGM; WONG, JB; DONALDSON, MC; MEYEROVITZ, MF; DEVRIES, J; HARRINGTON, DP

    1995-01-01

    Objective.-To evaluate the relative benefits and cost-effectiveness of revascularization for femoropopliteal disease using percutaneous transluminal angioplasty or bypass surgery. Design.-Decision analysis using a multistate transition simulation model (Markov process) and cost-effectiveness analysi

  6. Multicriteria decision analysis and core values for enhancing vaccine-related decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barocchi, Michèle A; Black, Steve; Rappuoli, Rino

    2016-06-29

    Vaccines have the potential to transform the health of all individuals and to reduce the health inequality between rich and poor countries. However, to achieve these goals, it is no longer sufficient to prioritize vaccine development using cost-effectiveness as the sole indicator. During a symposium entitled "Mission Grand Convergence-The Role of Vaccines," held in Siena, Italy, in July 2015, key stakeholders agreed that the prioritization of vaccine development and deployment must use multicriteria decision-making based on the following core concepts: (i) mortality and severity of the disease, (ii) vaccine safety considerations, and (iii) economic evaluation that captures the full benefits of vaccination. PMID:27358496

  7. Effect of Mesa Size on Thermal Characteristics of Vertical-cavity Surface-emitting Lasers

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    HOU Shi-hua; ZHAO Ding; SUN Yong-wei; TAN Man-qing; CHEN Liang-hui

    2005-01-01

    The effect of mesa size on the thermal characteristics of etched mesa vertical-cavity surfaceemitting lasers(VCSELs) is studied. The numerical results show that the mesa size of the top mirror strongly influences the temperature distribution inside the etched mesa VCSEL. Under a certain driving voltage, with decreasing mesa size, the location of the maximal temperature moves towards the p-contact metal, the temperature in the core region of the active layer rises greatly, and the thermal characteristics of the etched mesa VCSELs will deteriorate.

  8. Analysis of decisions and evaluation of components influencing the state of decisions of nuclear power plant operators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A proposal for reporting and for feedback of human malfunctions at Swedish nuclear power plants is presented for regular use. The method is intended for the description of terms which are independent of the situation. There is also the possibility to improve the exchange of experience with other countries. The proposed method was tested on a couple of incidents at Swedish nuclear power plants. The simplified version of the decision analysis was found to be sufficient for uncomplicated cases. (G.B.)

  9. An empirical analysis of the corporate call decision

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carlson, Murray Dean

    1998-12-01

    In this thesis we provide insights into the behavior of financial managers of utility companies by studying their decisions to redeem callable preferred shares. In particular, we investigate whether or not an option pricing based model of the call decision, with managers who maximize shareholder value, does a better job of explaining callable preferred share prices and call decisions than do other models of the decision. In order to perform these tests, we extend an empirical technique introduced by Rust (1987) to include the use of information from preferred share prices in addition to the call decisions. The model we develop to value the option embedded in a callable preferred share differs from standard models in two ways. First, as suggested in Kraus (1983), we explicitly account for transaction costs associated with a redemption. Second, we account for state variables that are observed by the decision makers but not by the preferred shareholders. We interpret these unobservable state variables as the benefits and costs associated with a change in capital structure that can accompany a call decision. When we add this variable, our empirical model changes from one which predicts exactly when a share should be called to one which predicts the probability of a call as the function of the observable state. These two modifications of the standard model result in predictions of calls, and therefore of callable preferred share prices, that are consistent with several previously unexplained features of the data; we show that the predictive power of the model is improved in a statistical sense by adding these features to the model. The pricing and call probability functions from our model do a good job of describing call decisions and preferred share prices for several utilities. Using data from shares of the Pacific Gas and Electric Co. (PGE) we obtain reasonable estimates for the transaction costs associated with a call. Using a formal empirical test, we are able to

  10. Geology of the Davis Mesa quadrangle, Colorado

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cater, Fred W.; Bryner, Leonid

    1953-01-01

    The Davis Mesa quadrangle is one of eighteen 7 1/2-minute quadrangles covering the principal carnotite-producing area of southwestern Colorado. The geology of these quadrangles was mapped by the U.S. Geological Survey for the Atomic Energy Commission as part of a comprehensive study of carnotite deposits. The rocks exposed in the eighteen quadrangles consist of crystalline rocks of pre-Cambrian age and sedimentary rocks that range in age from late Paleozoic to Quaternary. Over much of the area the sedimentary rocks are flat lying, but in places the rocks are disrupted by hih-angle faults, and northwest-trending folds. Conspicuous among the folds are large anticlines having cores of intrusive salt and gypsum. Most of the carnotite deposits are confined to the Salt Wash sandstone member of Jurassic Morrison formation. Within this sandstone, most of the deposits are spottily distributed through an arcuate zone known as "Uruvan Mineral Belt". Individual deposits range in size from irregular masses containing only a few tons of ore to large, tabular masses containing many thousands of tons. The ore consists largely of sandstone selectively impregnated and in part replaced by uranium and vanadium minerals. Most of the deposits appear to be related to certain sedimentary structures in sandstones of favorable composition.

  11. Geology of the Anderson Mesa quadrangle, Colorado

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cater, Fred W.; Withington, C.F.

    1953-01-01

    The Anderson Mesa quadrangle is one of the eighteen 7 1/2-minute quadrangles covering the principal carnotite-producing area of the southwestern Colorado. The geology of these quadrangles was mapped by the U.S. Geological Survey for the Atomic Energy Commission as part of a comprehensive study of carnotite deposits. The rocks exposed in the eighteenth quadrangles consist of crystalline rocks of pre-Cambrian age and sedimentary rocks that range in age from late Paleozoic to Quarternary. Over much of the area the sedimentary rocks are flat lying, but in places the rocks are disrupted by high-angle faults, and northwest-tending folds. Conspicuous among the folds are large anticlines having cores of intrusive slat and gypsum. Most of the carnotite deposits are confined to the Salt Wash sandstone member of the Jurassic Morrison formation. Within this sandstone, most of the deposits are spottily distributed through an arcuate zone known as the "Uravan Mineral Belt". Individual deposits range in size from irregular masses containing many thousands of tons. The ore consists of largely of sandstone selectively impregnated and in part replaced by uranium and vanadium minerals. Most of the deposits appear to be related to certain sedimentary structures in sandstones of favorable composition.

  12. MESA: Mercator scheduler and archive system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merges, Florian; Prins, Saskia; Pessemier, Wim; Raskin, Gert; Perez Padilla, Jesus; Van Winckel, Hans; Aerts, Conny

    2012-09-01

    We have developed an observing scheduling and archive system for the 1.2 meter Mercator Telescope. The goal was to optimize the specific niche of this modern small telescope in observational astrophysics: the building-up of long-term time series of photometric or high-resolution spectroscopic data with appropriate sampling for any given scientific program. This system allows PIs to easily submit their technical requirements and keep track of the progress of the observing programmes. The scheduling system provides the observer with an optimal schedule for the night which takes into account the current observing conditions as well as the priorities and requirements of the programmes in the queue. The observer can conveniently plan an observing night but also quickly adapt it to changing conditions. The archiving system automatically processes new files as they are created, including reduced data. It extracts the metadata and performs the normalization. A user can query, inspect and retrieve observing data. The progress of individual programmes, including timeline and reduced data plots can be seen at any time. Our MESA project is based on free and open source software (FOSS) using the Python programming language. The system is fully integrated with the Mercator Observing Control System1 (MOCS).

  13. Interactive Decision Analysis; Proceedings of an International Workshop on Interactive Decision Analysis and Interpretative Computer Intelligence, Laxenburg, Austria, September 20-23, 1983

    OpenAIRE

    Grauer, M.; A.P. Wierzbicki

    1984-01-01

    An International Workshop on Interactive Decision Analysis and Interpretative Computer Intelligence was held at IIASA in September 1983. The Workshop was motivated, firstly, by the realization that the rapid development of computers, especially microcomputers, will greatly increase the scope and capabilities of computerized decision-support systems. It is important to explore the potential of these systems for use in handling the complex technological, environmental, economic and social probl...

  14. Factors influencing first childbearing timing decisions among men: Path analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kariman, Nourossadat; Amerian, Maliheh; Jannati, Padideh; Salmani, Fatemeh

    2016-01-01

    Background: Factors that influence men’s childbearing intentions have been relatively unexplored in the literature. Objective: This study aimed to determine the influencing factors about the first childbearing timing decisions of men. Materials and Methods: In this cross-sectional study, 300 men who were referred to private and governmental healthcare centers in Shahrood, Iran were randomly recruited from April to September 2014. Data were collected using a demographic questionnaire, the Quality of Life Questionnaire; ENRICH Marital Satisfaction Questionnaire, Synder’s Hope Scale, and the Multidimensional Scale of Perceived Social Support. Results: After removing the statistically insignificant paths, men’s age at marriage had the highest direct effect (β=0.86) on their first childbearing decision. Marital satisfaction (β=-0.09), social support (β=0.06), economic status (β=0.06), and quality of life (β=-0.08) were other effective factors on men’s first childbearing decisions. Moreover, marital satisfaction and social support had significant indirect effects on men’s childbearing decisions (β=-0.04 and -0.01, respectively). Conclusion: Many factors, including personal factors (age at marriage and quality of life), family factors (marital satisfaction), and social factors (social support), can affect men’s decision to have a child. Policymakers are hence required to develop strategies to promote the socioeconomic and family conditions of the couples and to encourage them to have as many children as they desire at an appropriate time. PMID:27738661

  15. A Costing Analysis for Decision Making Grid Model in Failure-Based Maintenance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Burhanuddin M. A.

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. In current economic downturn, industries have to set good control on production cost, to maintain their profit margin. Maintenance department as an imperative unit in industries should attain all maintenance data, process information instantaneously, and subsequently transform it into a useful decision. Then act on the alternative to reduce production cost. Decision Making Grid model is used to identify strategies for maintenance decision. However, the model has limitation as it consider two factors only, that is, downtime and frequency of failures. We consider third factor, cost, in this study for failure-based maintenance. The objective of this paper is to introduce the formulae to estimate maintenance cost. Methods. Fish bone analysis conducted with Ishikawa model and Decision Making Grid methods are used in this study to reveal some underlying risk factors that delay failure-based maintenance. The goal of the study is to estimate the risk factor that is, repair cost to fit in the Decision Making Grid model. Decision Making grid model consider two variables, frequency of failure and downtime in the analysis. This paper introduces third variable, repair cost for Decision Making Grid model. This approaches give better result to categorize the machines, reduce cost, and boost the earning for the manufacturing plant. Results. We collected data from one of the food processing factories in Malaysia. From our empirical result, Machine C, Machine D, Machine F, and Machine I must be in the Decision Making Grid model even though their frequency of failures and downtime are less than Machine B and Machine N, based on the costing analysis. The case study and experimental results show that the cost analysis in Decision Making Grid model gives more promising strategies in failure-based maintenance. Conclusions. The improvement of Decision Making Grid model for decision analysis with costing analysis is our contribution in this paper for

  16. A critical review and meta-analysis of the unconscious thought effect in medical decision making

    OpenAIRE

    Vadillo, Miguel A.; Kostopoulou, Olga; David R. Shanks

    2015-01-01

    Based on research on the increasingly popular unconscious thought effect (UTE), it has been suggested that physicians might make better diagnostic decisions after a period of distraction than after an equivalent amount of time of conscious deliberation. However, published attempts to demonstrate the UTE in medical decision making have yielded inconsistent results. In the present study, we report the results of a meta-analysis of all the available evidence on the UTE in medical decisions made ...

  17. An Information Theoretic Analysis of Decision in Computer Chess

    CERN Document Server

    Godescu, Alexandru

    2011-01-01

    The basis of the method proposed in this article is the idea that information is one of the most important factors in strategic decisions, including decisions in computer chess and other strategy games. The model proposed in this article and the algorithm described are based on the idea of a information theoretic basis of decision in strategy games . The model generalizes and provides a mathematical justification for one of the most popular search algorithms used in leading computer chess programs, the fractional ply scheme. However, despite its success in leading computer chess applications, until now few has been published about this method. The article creates a fundamental basis for this method in the axioms of information theory, then derives the principles used in programming the search and describes mathematically the form of the coefficients. One of the most important parameters of the fractional ply search is derived from fundamental principles. Until now this coefficient has been usually handcrafted...

  18. Methodology to decide optimum replacement term for components of nuclear power plants using decision analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mostly, the economic analyses for replacement of major components of Nuclear Power Plants(NPPs) have been performed in deterministic ways. However, the analysis results are more or less affected by the uncertainties associated with input variables. Therefore, it is desirable to use a probabilistic economic analysis method to properly consider uncertainty of real problem. In this paper, the probabilistic economic analysis method and decision analysis technique are briefly described. The probabilistic economy analysis method using decision analysis will provide efficient and accurate way of economic analysis for the repair and/or replace major components of NPPs

  19. Negative decision outcomes are more common among people with lower decision-making competence: an item-level analysis of the Decision Outcome Inventory (DOI)

    OpenAIRE

    Parker, Andrew M.; Bruine de Bruin, Wändi; Fischhoff, Baruch

    2015-01-01

    Most behavioral decision research takes place in carefully controlled laboratory settings, and examination of relationships between performance and specific real-world decision outcomes is rare. One prior study shows that people who perform better on hypothetical decision tasks, assessed using the Adult Decision-Making Competence (A-DMC) measure, also tend to experience better real-world decision outcomes, as reported on the Decision Outcomes Inventory (DOI). The DOI score reflects avoidance ...

  20. Negative decision outcomes are more common among people with lower decision-making competence: An item-level analysis of the Decision Outcome Inventory (DOI)

    OpenAIRE

    Parker, Andrew M.; Wändi eBruine De Bruin; Baruch eFischhoff

    2015-01-01

    Most behavioral decision research takes place in carefully controlled laboratory settings, and examination of relationships between performance and specific real-world decision outcomes is rare. One prior study shows that people who perform better on hypothetical decision tasks, assessed using the Adult Decision-Making Competence (A-DMC) measure, also tend to experience better real-world decision outcomes, as reported on the Decision Outcomes Inventory (DOI). The DOI score reflects avoidance ...

  1. A decision analysis approach to climate adaptation: comparing multiple pathways for multi-decadal decision making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, B. B.; Little, L.

    2013-12-01

    Policy planners around the world are required to consider the implications of adapting to climatic change across spatial contexts and decadal timeframes. However, local level information for planning is often poorly defined, even though climate adaptation decision-making is made at this scale. This is especially true when considering sea level rise and coastal impacts of climate change. We present a simple approach using sea level rise simulations paired with adaptation scenarios to assess a range of adaptation options available to local councils dealing with issues of beach recession under present and future sea level rise and storm surge. Erosion and beach recession pose a large socioeconomic risk to coastal communities because of the loss of key coastal infrastructure. We examine the well-known adaptation technique of beach nourishment and assess various timings and amounts of beach nourishment at decadal time spans in relation to beach recession impacts. The objective was to identify an adaptation strategy that would allow for a low frequency of management interventions, the maintenance of beach width, and the ability to minimize variation in beach width over the 2010 to 2100 simulation period. 1000 replications of each adaptation option were produced against the 90 year simulation in order to model the ability each adaptation option to achieve the three key objectives. Three sets of adaptation scenarios were identified. Within each scenario, a number of adaptation options were tested. The three scenarios were: 1) Fixed periodic beach replenishment of specific amounts at 20 and 50 year intervals, 2) Beach replenishment to the initial beach width based on trigger levels of recession (5m, 10m, 20m), and 3) Fixed period beach replenishment of a variable amount at decadal intervals (every 10, 20, 30, 40, 50 years). For each adaptation option, we show the effectiveness of each beach replenishment scenario to maintain beach width and consider the implications of more

  2. A policy simulation based on multicriteria decision analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Aubert, P.J.

    1986-01-01

    Most scenarios for future energy policy are based on one or two predominant policy objectives. In this paper, policy objectives from several existing energy scenarios for The Netherlands are combined, The attainment of ‘ideal values’ of policy criteria (i.e., the ‘ideal point’ multicriteria decision

  3. The Role of Research and Analysis in Resource Allocation Decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lea, Dennis; Polster, Patty Poppe

    2011-01-01

    In a time of diminishing resources and increased accountability, it is important for school leaders to make the most of every dollar they spend. One approach to ensuring responsible resource allocation is to closely examine the organizational culture surrounding decision making and provide a structure and process to incorporate research and data…

  4. Managerial Analysis and Decision Support: A Guidebook and Case Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    National Association of College and University Business Officers (NJ3), 2004

    2004-01-01

    Developed and edited by the National Association of College and University Business Officers' (NACUBO's) Accounting Principles Council, this guidebook, written by highly experienced, seasoned college and university leaders, is designed to help readers make sense of today's world and provide the right tools to make the right decisions. The book,…

  5. Ethanol or Biodiesel? A Systems-Analysis Decision

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dinan, Frank; Stabler, Tom

    2008-01-01

    This case study stresses the need to broadly consider an entire system, including all of the energy inputs and outputs involved, to determine the real efficiency of that system. It also asks its student audience to consider the role that scientific input plays in policy decision-making processes. It emphasizes that, despite the importance of this…

  6. Simple estimation of fastest preferential contaminant travel times in the unsaturated zone: application to Rainier Mesa and Shoshone Mountain, Nevada

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. A. Ebel

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available Simulating contaminant transport in unsaturated zones with sparse hydraulic property information is a difficult, yet common, problem. When contaminant transport may occur via preferential flow, simple modeling approaches can provide predictions of interest, such as the first arrival of contaminant, with minimal site characterization. The conceptual model for unsaturated zone flow at two areas within the Nevada Test Site, Rainier Mesa and Shoshone Mountain, establishes the possibility of preferential flow through lithologies between potential radionuclide sources and the saturated zone. Lithology, saturated or near-saturated conditions in portions of the rock matrix, and relatively high recharge rates may act in concert at Rainier Mesa to promote preferential flow, despite the semi-arid climate. After identifying preferential flow as a possible contaminant transport process at Rainier Mesa and Shoshone Mountain, we apply a simple model to estimate fastest unsaturated travel times for conservatively-transported radionuclides to initially reach the saturated zone. Preferential flow travel times at Rainier Mesa are tens to hundreds of years for non-ponded water sources and one to two months for continuously-ponded water sources. If preferential flow occurs at Shoshone Mountain, the fastest travel times are approximately twice the Rainier Mesa estimates. A siliceous rock unit is present at Shoshone Mountain that may provide a barrier to preferential flow; if so, estimated transport times increase to more than a thousand years. Our analysis of unsaturated transport of radionuclides via preferential flow, using a relatively simple model, suggests that contaminated locations associated with continuously-supplied water sources, such as effluent ponds and water-filled tunnels, may have significantly shorter radionuclide travel times than locations not associated with such sources. The simple approach demonstrated here for estimating travel times can be

  7. 75 FR 58374 - 2010 Release of CADDIS (Causal Analysis/Diagnosis Decision Information System)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-09-24

    ... AGENCY 2010 Release of CADDIS (Causal Analysis/Diagnosis Decision Information System) AGENCY... Decision Information System (CADDIS). This Web site was developed to help scientists find, develop... information useful for causal evaluations in aquatic systems. CADDIS is based on EPA's Stressor...

  8. Spatial Vegetation Data for Mesa Verde National Park Vegetation Mapping Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Park Service, Department of the Interior — The Mesa Verde National Park Vegetation Map Database was developed as a primary product in the Mesa Verde National Park Vegetation Classification, Distribution, and...

  9. Decision analysis interviews on protective actions in Finland supported by the RODOS system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Haemaelaeinen, R.P.; Lindstedt, M. [Helsinki Univ. of Technology, Otaniemi (Finland). System Analysis Lab.; Sinkko, K.; Ammann, M. [Radiation and Nuclear Safety Authority, Helsinki (Finland); Salo, A. [Lepolantie 54, Helsinki (Finland)

    2000-03-01

    This work was undertaken in order to study the utilisation of decision analysis interviews and of the RODOS system when planning protective actions in the case of a nuclear accident. Six decision analysis interview meetings were organised. Interviewees were competent national safety authorities and technical level decision-makers, i.e., those who are responsible for drawing up advice or making presentations of matters to decision-makers responsible for the practical implementation of the actions. The theme of the meetings was to study how uncertainties could be included in the decision-making process and whether pre-structured generic attributes and value trees would help this process and save time. The approach was to present a generic value tree, a decision table and a selected information package at the beginning of the interviews. The interviewees then examined the suggested value tree in order to ensure that no important factors have been omitted and they made changes when necessary. Also, the decision table was examined and altered by some participants and some of them asked for further information on some issues. But all in all the selected approach allowed for more time and effort to be allocated to value trade-offs and elicitation of risk attitudes. All information was calculated with the support of the RODOS system. Predefined value trees were found to ensure that all relevant factors are considered. The participants also felt that RODOS could provide the required information but, as in previous RODOS exercises, they found it more problematic to use decision analysis methods when planning countermeasures in the early phase of a nuclear accident. Furthermore, it was again noted that understanding the actual meaning 'soft' attributes, such as socio-psychological impacts, was not a straightforward issue. Consequently, the definition of attributes and training in advance would be beneficial. The incorporation of uncertainties also proved to be

  10. A Meta-Analysis of Blood Glucose Effects on Human Decision Making

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Orquin, Jacob Lund; Kurzban, Robert

    2016-01-01

    The academic and public interest in blood glucose and its relationship to decision making has been increasing over the last decade. To investigate and evaluate competing theories about this relationship, we conducted a psychometric meta-analysis on the effect of blood glucose on decision making. We...... identified 42 studies relating to 4 dimensions of decision making: willingness to pay, willingness to work, time discounting, and decision style. We did not find a uniform influence of blood glucose on decision making. Instead, we found that low levels of blood glucose increase the willingness to pay...... and willingness to work when a situation is food related, but decrease willingness to pay and work in all other situations. Low levels of blood glucose increase the future discount rate for food; that is, decision makers become more impatient, and to a lesser extent increase the future discount rate for money...

  11. Proizvodno - potrošna bilanca svinjskog mesa u Hrvatskoj

    OpenAIRE

    Grgić, prof. dr. sc. Ivo; Zrakić, mag. ing. agr., Magdalena; Hadelan, doc. dr. sc. Lari

    2015-01-01

    Proizvodnja i potrošnja svinjskog mesa u mnogim je državama značajan dio njihove ukupne proizvodnje i potrošnje prehrambenih proizvoda. Potražnju za svinjskim mesom određuje porast stanovništva i njihovih dohodaka, a proizvodnju još i cijena stočne hrane, prvenstveno kukuruza. Najviše se svinjskog mesa proizvodi u Aziji (57,4%), zatim Europi (23,6%) te Sjevernoj i Južnoj Americi (17,4%). Najznačajniji svjetski proizvođači svinjskog mesa su Kina (51%), Sjedinjene američke države (SAD) (9%) i N...

  12. Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis for Health Care Decision Making--An Introduction: Report 1 of the ISPOR MCDA Emerging Good Practices Task Force.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thokala, Praveen; Devlin, Nancy; Marsh, Kevin; Baltussen, Rob; Boysen, Meindert; Kalo, Zoltan; Longrenn, Thomas; Mussen, Filip; Peacock, Stuart; Watkins, John; Ijzerman, Maarten

    2016-01-01

    Health care decisions are complex and involve confronting trade-offs between multiple, often conflicting, objectives. Using structured, explicit approaches to decisions involving multiple criteria can improve the quality of decision making and a set of techniques, known under the collective heading multiple criteria decision analysis (MCDA), are useful for this purpose. MCDA methods are widely used in other sectors, and recently there has been an increase in health care applications. In 2014, ISPOR established an MCDA Emerging Good Practices Task Force. It was charged with establishing a common definition for MCDA in health care decision making and developing good practice guidelines for conducting MCDA to aid health care decision making. This initial ISPOR MCDA task force report provides an introduction to MCDA - it defines MCDA; provides examples of its use in different kinds of decision making in health care (including benefit risk analysis, health technology assessment, resource allocation, portfolio decision analysis, shared patient clinician decision making and prioritizing patients' access to services); provides an overview of the principal methods of MCDA; and describes the key steps involved. Upon reviewing this report, readers should have a solid overview of MCDA methods and their potential for supporting health care decision making.

  13. Using multicriteria decision analysis to support research priority setting in biomedical translational research projects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Graaf, Gimon; Postmus, Douwe; Buskens, Erik

    2015-01-01

    Translational research is conducted to achieve a predefined set of economic or societal goals. As a result, investment decisions on where available resources have the highest potential in achieving these goals have to be made. In this paper, we first describe how multicriteria decision analysis can assist in defining the decision context and in ensuring that all relevant aspects of the decision problem are incorporated in the decision making process. We then present the results of a case study to support priority setting in a translational research consortium aimed at reducing the burden of disease of type 2 diabetes. During problem structuring, we identified four research alternatives (primary, secondary, tertiary microvascular, and tertiary macrovascular prevention) and a set of six decision criteria. Scoring of these alternatives against the criteria was done using a combination of expert judgement and previously published data. Lastly, decision analysis was performed using stochastic multicriteria acceptability analysis, which allows for the combined use of numerical and ordinal data. We found that the development of novel techniques applied in secondary prevention would be a poor investment of research funds. The ranking of the remaining alternatives was however strongly dependent on the decision maker's preferences for certain criteria. PMID:26495288

  14. Second-Order Risk Constraints in Decision Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Love Ekenberg

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Recently, representations and methods aimed at analysing decision problems where probabilities and values (utilities are associated with distributions over them (second-order representations have been suggested. In this paper we present an approach to how imprecise information can be modelled by means of second-order distributions and how a risk evaluation process can be elaborated by integrating procedures for numerically imprecise probabilities and utilities. We discuss some shortcomings of the use of the principle of maximising the expected utility and of utility theory in general, and offer remedies by the introduction of supplementary decision rules based on a concept of risk constraints taking advantage of second-order distributions.

  15. When values conflict. Essays on environmental analysis, discourse, and decision

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tribe, L.H.; Schelling, C.S.; Voss, J. (eds.)

    1976-01-01

    One of the most perplexing tasks that decision makers face is weighing conflicting values, and in particular doing so with adequate sensitivity to 'fragile' values such as esthetic or other intangible concerns. In this series of essays a physicist, a lawyer, a philosopher, an engineer, a sociologist and two economists address this problem in the environmental context, with special attention to the relationship between man and his natural surroundings. Each author has drawn upon his own expertise, experience and perceptions in order to clarify the conceptual as well as the institutional issues involved. The essays analyze how values have been dealt with in environmental decisions and suggest ways in which they might be handled with greater sensitivity. This volume may be looked upon as one step in remedying the 'failure of discourse' which is seen as a major factor in the difficulty our society experiences in dealing with value conflicts in policy areas.

  16. California solar energy study: decision-analysis panel report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Margolin, J.B.; Misch, M.R.

    1979-09-01

    In order to investigate motivations behind an individual's decision to purchase or not to purchase a solar energy system for a home, the California Energy Commission initiated a comprehensive survey program to analyze, in some depth, attitudes toward solar energy use. As part of that program, the CEC contracted for a series of panels comprised of homogenous groups of individuals who were not solar adopters, to probe for underlying attitudes about solar and, through the group dynamics process, elicit information which generally cannot be obtained using a standard questionnaire. The results shed additional light on consumer perceptions about the energy situation, the solar industry, economics, government's role and acceptance of the technology which, in turn, affect the individual's decision to adopt or not to adopt a solar energy device.

  17. How to use multi-criteria decision analysis methods for reimbursement decision-making in healthcare: a step-by-step guide.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diaby, Vakaramoko; Goeree, Ron

    2014-02-01

    In recent years, the quest for more comprehensiveness, structure and transparency in reimbursement decision-making in healthcare has prompted the research into alternative decision-making frameworks. In this environment, multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is arising as a valuable tool to support healthcare decision-making. In this paper, we present the main MCDA decision support methods (elementary methods, value-based measurement models, goal programming models and outranking models) using a case study approach. For each family of methods, an example of how an MCDA model would operate in a real decision-making context is presented from a critical perspective, highlighting the parameters setting, the selection of the appropriate evaluation model as well as the role of sensitivity and robustness analyses. This study aims to provide a step-by-step guide on how to use MCDA methods for reimbursement decision-making in healthcare.

  18. Analysis of Decision Postponement Strategies for Aircraft Assignment under Uncertainty

    OpenAIRE

    Suwandechochai, Rawee

    2002-01-01

    The ability to effectively match supply and demand can lead to significant revenue benefits in the airline industry. Airline supply management deals with assigning the right resources (i.e., aircraft and crew) to the right routes in the flight network. Due to certain crew regulations, operating characteristics, and constraints of the airline companies, these supply management decisions need to be made well in advance of departures, at a time when demand is highly uncertain. However, demand fo...

  19. Health care priority setting in Norway a multicriteria decision analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Defechereux Thierry

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Priority setting in population health is increasingly based on explicitly formulated values. The Patients Rights Act of the Norwegian tax-based health service guaranties all citizens health care in case of a severe illness, a proven health benefit, and proportionality between need and treatment. This study compares the values of the country's health policy makers with these three official principles. Methods In total 34 policy makers participated in a discrete choice experiment, weighting the relative value of six policy criteria. We used multi-variate logistic regression with selection as dependent valuable to derive odds ratios for each criterion. Next, we constructed a composite league table - based on the sum score for the probability of selection - to rank potential interventions in five major disease areas. Results The group considered cost effectiveness, large individual benefits and severity of disease as the most important criteria in decision making. Priority interventions are those related to cardiovascular diseases and respiratory diseases. Less attractive interventions rank those related to mental health. Conclusions Norwegian policy makers' values are in agreement with principles formulated in national health laws. Multi-criteria decision approaches may provide a tool to support explicit allocation decisions.

  20. Il Risk Management nei progetti di investimento attraverso la Multi Criteria Decision Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elena Fregonara

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available Usually, we consider Multi Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA as a deterministic approach to support complex decisions, which involve multidisciplinary profiles. Furthermore, risk analysis is considered as an integral part of investments analysis, also in a probabilistic version. In this work, we are going to explore the applicability of probabilistic MCDA in supporting risk analysis practices (as a part of project management activities, in economic feasibility evaluation of the real estate investment projects. It is assumed a management approach based on adaptive approach instead of optimization approach; to operate in context characterized by the presence of risk/uncertainty components; that these components are able to perturb decision processes and strategic choices, conditioned by subjectivity/uncertainty of stakeholders and institutions in judgement definition phase (decision maker’s utility functions, criterion scores, ranking of alternatives, etc..

  1. Decision Styles and Rationality: An Analysis of the Predictive Validity of the General Decision-Making Style Inventory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Curseu, Petru Lucian; Schruijer, Sandra G. L.

    2012-01-01

    This study investigates the relationship between the five decision-making styles evaluated by the General Decision-Making Style Inventory, indecisiveness, and rationality in decision making. Using a sample of 102 middle-level managers, the results show that the rational style positively predicts rationality in decision making and negatively…

  2. Surface motion induced by nuclear explosions beneath Pahute Mesa. Part I. Halfbreak, Greeley, Scotch, Boxcar events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Results of surface motion studies conducted by Sandia Laboratories during seven underground nuclear explosions detonated beneath Pahute Mesa, Areas 19 and 20 of the Nevada Test Site, between 1966 and 1973 are reported. The report is divided into two parts of which this, Part I, includes (1) descriptions of the Pahute Mesa geological environment and of the purposes and instrumentation used in these programs (Chapter 1), and (2) description of four events, the data derived from each, and analysis of these data. These Part I events are HALFBEAK (Chapter 2), GREELEY (Chapter 3), SCOTCH (Chapter 4), and BOXCAR (Chapter 5) for all of which a nominally radial array of gage stations yielded data as a function of distance primarily, although in a few cases data were derived from stations at widely separated azimuths from the explosion. Results of the analysis indicate that average propagation velocity through the geologic column between the explosions and mesa surface was about 8800 ft/sec and that for horizontal distances greater than shot depth, refraction occurred within rhyolite flows with characteristic velocity of about 12,300 ft/sec. There is evidence which suggests possible deeper refraction at a velocity between 18,000 and 21,000 ft/sec. Only the verticle motion peaks follow a pattern amenable to regression analysis because geometrical effects influence horizontal motion amplitudes differently as horizontal distances increase. Particle velocities vary roughly as the inverse square of slant or radial range with exponent values ranging from -3.9 to -1.3. Displacements follow a similar pattern with exponents ranging from about -6 to -2. Displacement profiles at various times during the motion and displacement hodographs in the vertical-radial plane aid in understanding several local phenomena implied by individual motion records

  3. Developing shape analysis tools to assist complex spatial decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The objective of this research was to develop and implement a shape identification measure within a geographic information system, specifically one that incorporates analytical modeling for site location planning. The application that was developed incorporated a location model within a raster-based GIS, which helped address critical performance issues for the decision support system. Binary matrices, which approximate the object's geometrical form, are passed over the grided data structure and allow identification of irregular and regularly shaped objects. Lastly, the issue of shape rotation is addressed and is resolved by constructing unique matrices corresponding to the object's orientation

  4. LANL Institutional Decision Support By Process Modeling and Analysis Group (AET-2)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Booth, Steven Richard [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2016-04-04

    AET-2 has expertise in process modeling, economics, business case analysis, risk assessment, Lean/Six Sigma tools, and decision analysis to provide timely decision support to LANS leading to continuous improvement. This capability is critical during the current tight budgetary environment as LANS pushes to identify potential areas of cost savings and efficiencies. An important arena is business systems and operations, where processes can impact most or all laboratory employees. Lab-wide efforts are needed to identify and eliminate inefficiencies to accomplish Director McMillan’s charge of “doing more with less.” LANS faces many critical and potentially expensive choices that require sound decision support to ensure success. AET-2 is available to provide this analysis support to expedite the decisions at hand.

  5. Environmental decision support system on base of geoinformational technologies for the analysis of nuclear accident consequences

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The report deals with description of the concept and prototype of environmental decision support system (EDSS) for the analysis of late off-site consequences of severe nuclear accidents and analysis, processing and presentation of spatially distributed radioecological data. General description of the available software, use of modem achievements of geostatistics and stochastic simulations for the analysis of spatial data are presented and discussed

  6. Econometric Analysis of Bulk Shipping: implications for investment strategies and financial decision-making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    S. Tsolakis

    2005-01-01

    textabstractThis thesis provides an econometric analysis of the bulk shipping markets and the implications for shipping investment and financial decision making. Chapter 1 sets the scene by providing a historic analysis of bulk shipping markets over the last 55 years. From this analysis, four shipp

  7. An Analysis on Performance of Decision Tree Algorithms using Student’s Qualitative Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T.Miranda Lakshmi

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Decision Tree is the most widely applied supervised classification technique. The learning and classification steps of decision tree induction are simple and fast and it can be applied to any domain. In this research student qualitative data has been taken from educational data mining and the performance analysis of the decision tree algorithm ID3, C4.5 and CART are compared. The comparison result shows that the Gini Index of CART influence information Gain Ratio of ID3 and C4.5. The classification accuracy of CART is higher when compared to ID3 and C4.5. However the difference in classification accuracy between the decision tree algorithms is not considerably higher. The experimental results of decision tree indicate that student’s performance also influenced by qualitative factors.

  8. Análise de correspondência como instrumento para descrição do perfil do trabalhador da cultura de tomate de mesa em Goiás The correspondence analysis as instrument to analyze the profile of the worker in the tomato crop in the Goiás state, Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sueli Martins Freitas Alves

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available O cultivo do tomate de mesa em Goiás está estruturado numa proposta tecnológica baseada no uso intensivo de agrotóxicos, o que envolve riscos e danos potenciais à saúde dos trabalhadores. O objetivo deste trabalho foi utilizar a Análise de Correspondência Múltipla (ACM para explorar a perfil do trabalhador da cultura de tomate de mesa quanto ao uso de agrotóxicos. Para isso, foram obtidas informações sobre fatores socioeconômicos e demográficos, percepção de risco, uso de agrotóxicos, uso de equipamento de proteção individual (EPI e morbidade referida, por meio de questionário respondido por 96 trabalhadores da cultura de tomate de mesa, em seis municípios do Estado de Goiás. A Análise de Correspondência Múltipla (ACM possibilitou definir três grupos de trabalhadores. No grupo 1, os que responderam que já se intoxicaram com agrotóxicos e não usam EPI porque dificulta o trabalho ou porque não têm costume. No grupo 2, os que responderam que não se intoxicaram com agrotóxico relataram que usam somente algum tipo de EPI porque os consideram desconfortáveis ou por outros motivos. No grupo 3, os que relataram usar EPI completo e que moram em barracas de lona na lavoura de tomate. Foi possível fazer correspondência entre as modalidades da pesquisa, o que não seria possível com o uso de estatística descritiva.The tomato cropping in the Goiás state is structured under a technological proposal based on the intensive use of pesticides, which involves risks and potential damages to the workers' health. This study aimed to use the Multiple Correspondence Analysis (ACM to explore the worker's profile concerning to the use of pesticides in tomato crop. So, information about the socioeconomic and demographic factors, risk perception, pesticide uses, use of individual protection equipment (EPI and referred morbidity were obtained, by using a questionnaire applied to 96 workers in tomato crop, in six counties at the State

  9. Decision analysis for the siting of nuclear power plants: the relevance of multiattribute utility theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The necessity for improved decision making concerning the siting and licensing of major power facilities has been accelerated in the past decade by the increased environmental consciousness of the public and by the energy crisis. These problems are exceedingly complex due to their multiple objective nature, the many interest groups, the long-range time horizons, and the inherent uncertainties of the potential impacts of any decision. Along with the relatively objective economic and engineering concerns, clearly the more subjective factors involving safety, environmental, and social issues are crucial to the problem. Hence, the professional judgments and knowledge of experts in these areas should be utilized in analyses of siting decisions. Likewise, the preferences of the general public, as consumers, the utility companies, as builders and operators of power plant facilities, and environmentalists and the government must be accounted for in analyzing power plant siting and licensing issues. We advocate an approach for formally articulating the experts' judgments and the decision makers' preferences, both of which are clearly subjective, and processing these along with the more objective considerations in a logical manner to acquire the implications for decision making. The appropriateness and application of decision analysis for power plant location decisions is discussed and illustrated. Emphasis is placed on the assessment of the decision maker's preferences and tradeoffs concerning multiple objectives. (U.S.)

  10. Addressing preference heterogeneity in public health policy by combining Cluster Analysis and Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaltoft, Mette Kjer; Turner, Robin; Cunich, Michelle;

    2015-01-01

    of the population in relation to the importance assigned to relevant criteria. It involves combining Cluster Analysis (CA), to generate the subgroup sets of preferences, with Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA), to provide the policy framework into which the clustered preferences are entered. We employ three...... preferences as valid determinants of public policy, a transparent analytical procedure is needed. In this proof of method study we show how public preferences could be incorporated into policy decisions in a way that respects both the multi-criterial nature of those decisions, and the heterogeneity...

  11. Committees versus individuals: an experimental analysis of monetary policy decision-making

    OpenAIRE

    Lombardelli, Clare; Proudman, James; Talbot, James

    2002-01-01

    The results of an experimental analysis of monetary policy decision-making under uncertainty are reported. A large sample of economically literate undergraduate and postgraduate students from the London School of Economics was used to play a simple monetary policy game, both as individuals and in committees of five players. The findings - that groups make better decisions than individuals - accord with previous work by Blinder and Morgan. An attempt was also made to establish why group decisi...

  12. BiodieselFAO: An Integrated Decision Support System for Investment Analysis in the Biodiesel Production Chain

    OpenAIRE

    Aziz Galvão da Silva Júnior

    2015-01-01

    In the short and medium terms, biofuels are the most viable alternative to reduce the environmental impact of fossil fuels. The recent controversy over the competition between biofuels and food production increases the complexity of investment decisions in the biodiesel production chain. In this context, decision support tools are highly relevant. The purpose of this article is to describe the BiodieselFAO using the Unified Modeling Language (UML). An integrated analysis considering both agri...

  13. Benefits of customer profitability analysis reports in repeated budget allocation decision making.

    OpenAIRE

    Cardinaels, Eddy; Roodhooft, Filip; Warlop, Luk

    2000-01-01

    We study how decision makers learn to improve performance across repeated budget allocation decisions. The costing system they use should be able to provide information that is of incremental value over mere outcome feedback. We report an experiment demonstrating that customer profitability analysis (CPA) using activity based costing facilitates learning of the most appropriate allocation of a marketing budget among customers. In a difficult learning environment, participants receiving CPA in...

  14. Bipolar and bivariate models in multi-criteria decision analysis: descriptive and constructive approaches

    OpenAIRE

    GRABISCH, Michel; Greco, Salvatore; Pirlot, Marc

    2008-01-01

    International audience Multi-criteria decision analysis studies decision problems in which the alternatives are evaluated on several dimensions or viewpoints. In the problems we consider in this paper, the scales used for assessing the alternatives with respect to a viewpoint are bipolar and univariate or unipolar and bivariate. In the former case, the scale is divided in two zones by a neutral point; a positive feeling is associated to the zone above the neutral point and a negative feeli...

  15. Assessing Hydraulic Connections Across Structural Blocks, Pahute Mesa, Nevada—Detecting Distant Drawdowns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia, C.; Fenelon, J. M.; Halford, K. J.; Sweetkind, D. S.

    2010-12-01

    Groundwater beneath Pahute Mesa flows through a complexly layered sequence of volcanic-rock aquifers and confining units that have been faulted into distinct structural blocks. Hydraulic properties of the rocks and structures in this aquifer system control radionuclide migration away from areas of underground testing. Detecting drawdowns in observation wells that penetrate a structural block different from the structural block intersected by the pumping well provides irrefutable evidence of a hydraulic connection. However, detecting these pumping-induced changes in water-level records typical of Pahute Mesa can be problematic because environmental noise frequently exceeds the pumping signal. Therefore, inherent noise must be removed from the water-level record systematically before pumping-induced drawdown and subsequent recovery can be quantified and analyzed. Successful applications of this approach on Pahute Mesa are illustrated using water-level records acquired during selected periods of recent drilling, development, testing, and pumping. Continuous monitoring of water level and air pressure changes in two dozen wells reveal moderate and high frequency stresses such as barometric pressure and earth tides along with gradual water-level changes induced by well drilling, development, and testing. At distances of nearly 4 km from pumping stresses, drawdown and recovery responses of less than 0.02 m can be detected using a synthetic water-level analysis. Synthetic water-levels are the summation of barometric, tidal, and pumping responses and water levels from background wells that are fit to measured water levels in remote observation wells. Pumping responses are simulated by superposition of Theis solutions. Differences between synthetic and measured water levels are minimized by adjusting the amplitude and phase of non-pumping components, while the transmissivity and storage coefficient are estimated from the pumping responses.

  16. Application of decision analysis in debt-for-environment swaps

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Abu-Taleb, M.F. [Department of Civil Engineering, Applied Science University, PO Box 40, 11831, Amman (Jordan)

    2003-03-01

    Through a mandate by the Government of Jordan, a debt-for-environment swap initiative was designed to mobilize resources for programs that improve the Jordanian environment within a broad spectrum of conservation, water supply, sanitation, resource management, ecological protection, environmental education, and pollution abatement technology. As a debtor country, Jordan faces a severe debt burden (with debt-per-capita levels among the highest in the world), and is facing difficulty obtaining further credit to fill the gaps in hard currency requirements for imports. Debt swap converts outstanding debt obligations into local currency for approved national environmental programs and projects. With creditor countries favoring debt swap over debt forgiveness in general, and debt swap for environmental technology projects in particular, the initiative was launched to ensure both fiscal and environmental quality benefits. With donors requiring that project development and selection procedures be fair, unbiased, and transparent, a mechanism for ultimate selection was developed by the author solely for the initiative based on multiple objective optimization techniques. This paper formulates the necessary decision-analytic principles for the initiative and presents a discrete, defensible, and transparent model for selection of projects. The model ranks the projects in terms of environment and economic objectives and can be used for other generalized applications. (orig.)

  17. Environmental criteria in industrial facility siting decisions: An analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Briassoulis, Helen

    1995-03-01

    Environmental criteria are increasingly being employed in industrial facility siting, usually in multicriteria decision contexts, together with technical, socioeconomic and other considerations. This paper analyzes the criteria that have appeared in the published literature with the aim to offer guidance for their selection in a particular facility location problem. A number of alternative classification schemes are presented, first based on the most prevalent classification dimensions which are: the economy-environment relationship, purpose of the criterion, complexity, spatial and temporal scale, and level of measurement. The major scheme adopted draws from the economy-environment relationship and assigns environmental critera to one of seven categories: general characterizations of the environment, characteristics of individual environmental components, measures of the magnitude and intensity of the activity, measures of the nature and volume of wastes which are produced, characteristics of impacts on separate environmental media and receptors, general characterizations of environmental quality, and impacts on humans. Within each of these categories the criteria are analyzed in terms of the other classification dimensions. Common characteristics among the various criteria as well as future trends in their development are identified. This paper also discusses the most important factors conditioning the choice of criteria in a particular facility siting context and outlines a systematic procedure for their selection in real-world applications.

  18. Cost-benefit analysis in decision making for diagnostic radiology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fabrikant, J.I.; Hilberg, A.W.

    1982-02-01

    This paper reviews certain current concepts and methods relating to benefit-risk analysis, in terms of economic costs and raidation risks to health, in relation to the benefits from diagnostic radiology in clinical medicine.

  19. Cost-benefit analysis in decision making for diagnostic radiology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper reviews certain current concepts and methods relating to benefit-risk analysis, in terms of economic costs and raidation risks to health, in relation to the benefits from diagnostic radiology in clinical medicine

  20. RATING DECISION ANALYSIS BASED ON IOS APP STORE DATA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dejan Erić

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The aim of the paper is to describe the specific aspects of the e-commerce model business-to-consumer as a constantly developing field of an economic life in the Central European countries according to their customers. The current state of e-business and business-to-consumer e-commerce issue was identified by the research in the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia.Methodology/Approach: For the purposes of collecting primary data the crucial factor for the selection of e-shops was identification of the suitable  online portals focused on post-purchase evaluation of e-shops in Visegrad group countries. Automatic data collection method was used for the observed variables (evaluations within selected online portals of the identified e-shops. The total of 5,228,127 evaluations of 9,260 e-shops were analysed. The main focus was given to customer overall satisfaction with an e-shop in relation to communication with a customer or overall satisfaction with an e-shop and delivery quality.Findings: The results of the research showed that there exists a direct relation between overall satisfaction with an e-shop and communication with customers or overall satisfaction with an e-shop and delivery quality.Originality/Value of paper: The ambition of this paper through the findings is to help subjects of e-commerce in their marketing decisions in order to even better understand the factors that influence customers’ satisfaction. 

  1. A critical narrative analysis of shared decision-making in acute inpatient mental health care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stacey, Gemma; Felton, Anne; Morgan, Alastair; Stickley, Theo; Willis, Martin; Diamond, Bob; Houghton, Philip; Johnson, Beverley; Dumenya, John

    2016-01-01

    Shared decision-making (SDM) is a high priority in healthcare policy and is complementary to the recovery philosophy in mental health care. This agenda has been operationalised within the Values-Based Practice (VBP) framework, which offers a theoretical and practical model to promote democratic interprofessional approaches to decision-making. However, these are limited by a lack of recognition of the implications of power implicit within the mental health system. This study considers issues of power within the context of decision-making and examines to what extent decisions about patients' care on acute in-patient wards are perceived to be shared. Focus groups were conducted with 46 mental health professionals, service users, and carers. The data were analysed using the framework of critical narrative analysis (CNA). The findings of the study suggested each group constructed different identity positions, which placed them as inside or outside of the decision-making process. This reflected their view of themselves as best placed to influence a decision on behalf of the service user. In conclusion, the discourse of VBP and SDM needs to take account of how differentials of power and the positioning of speakers affect the context in which decisions take place. PMID:26833106

  2. Barriers And Profits Of Distan ce Education In Operations Research Based Decision Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tomasz Szapiro

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Distance education and blended learning allow universities to lower costs, have more return on economies of scale, better control educational process and provide higher quality services for students. This process however requires specialized software to be used by a university. The paper tackles issues related with this approach and presents guidelines for construction of a framework for creating web-based education support software in quantitative area – the meta-framework that al lows for a rapid construction of web-based educational decision analysis software. The framework design in paper covers three aspect: (1 information system modeling, (2 decision problem modeling and (3 teaching process modeling. The information system modeling includes system architecture, servers, programming languages and technical design. The decision problem modeling prov ides means to present an abstract decision problem (and more generally - a problem where quantitative methods can be used and to model interaction between software and decision maker (i.e. a student learning a decision algorithm. Teaching process modeling includes support for linear teaching algorithm in the decision making process, further this can be extended into non-linear and hybrid teaching algorithms. As a proof of concept a working framework prototype named Combine! will be presented. The software’s usefulness was evaluated through a survey carried out on 234 students at Warsaw School of Economics.

  3. A decision analysis approach for risk management of near-earth objects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Robert C.; Jones, Thomas D.; Chapman, Clark R.

    2014-10-01

    Risk management of near-Earth objects (NEOs; e.g., asteroids and comets) that can potentially impact Earth is an important issue that took on added urgency with the Chelyabinsk event of February 2013. Thousands of NEOs large enough to cause substantial damage are known to exist, although only a small fraction of these have the potential to impact Earth in the next few centuries. The probability and location of a NEO impact are subject to complex physics and great uncertainty, and consequences can range from minimal to devastating, depending upon the size of the NEO and location of impact. Deflecting a potential NEO impactor would be complex and expensive, and inter-agency and international cooperation would be necessary. Such deflection campaigns may be risky in themselves, and mission failure may result in unintended consequences. The benefits, risks, and costs of different potential NEO risk management strategies have not been compared in a systematic fashion. We present a decision analysis framework addressing this hazard. Decision analysis is the science of informing difficult decisions. It is inherently multi-disciplinary, especially with regard to managing catastrophic risks. Note that risk analysis clarifies the nature and magnitude of risks, whereas decision analysis guides rational risk management. Decision analysis can be used to inform strategic, policy, or resource allocation decisions. First, a problem is defined, including the decision situation and context. Second, objectives are defined, based upon what the different decision-makers and stakeholders (i.e., participants in the decision) value as important. Third, quantitative measures or scales for the objectives are determined. Fourth, alternative choices or strategies are defined. Fifth, the problem is then quantitatively modeled, including probabilistic risk analysis, and the alternatives are ranked in terms of how well they satisfy the objectives. Sixth, sensitivity analyses are performed in

  4. Applications of Geophysical and Geological Techniques to Identify Areas for Detailed Exploration in Black Mesa Basin, Arizona

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    George, S.; Reeves, T.K.; Sharma, Bijon; Szpakiewicz, M.

    1999-04-29

    A recent report submitted to the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) (NIPER/BDM-0226) discussed in considerable detail, the geology, structure, tectonics, and history of oil production activities in the Black Mesa basin in Arizona. As part of the final phase of wrapping up research in the Black Mesa basin, the results of a few additional geophysical studies conducted on structure, stratigraphy, petrophysical analysis, and oil and gas occurrences in the basin are presented here. A second objective of this study is to determine the effectiveness of relatively inexpensive, noninvasive techniques like gravity or magnetic in obtaining information on structure and tectonics in sufficient detail for hydrocarbon exploration, particularly by using the higher resolution satellite data now becoming available to the industry.

  5. Aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage prognostic decision-making algorithm using classification and regression tree analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lo, Benjamin W. Y.; Fukuda, Hitoshi; Angle, Mark; Teitelbaum, Jeanne; Macdonald, R. Loch; Farrokhyar, Forough; Thabane, Lehana; Levine, Mitchell A. H.

    2016-01-01

    Background: Classification and regression tree analysis involves the creation of a decision tree by recursive partitioning of a dataset into more homogeneous subgroups. Thus far, there is scarce literature on using this technique to create clinical prediction tools for aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH). Methods: The classification and regression tree analysis technique was applied to the multicenter Tirilazad database (3551 patients) in order to create the decision-making algorithm. In order to elucidate prognostic subgroups in aneurysmal SAH, neurologic, systemic, and demographic factors were taken into account. The dependent variable used for analysis was the dichotomized Glasgow Outcome Score at 3 months. Results: Classification and regression tree analysis revealed seven prognostic subgroups. Neurological grade, occurrence of post-admission stroke, occurrence of post-admission fever, and age represented the explanatory nodes of this decision tree. Split sample validation revealed classification accuracy of 79% for the training dataset and 77% for the testing dataset. In addition, the occurrence of fever at 1-week post-aneurysmal SAH is associated with increased odds of post-admission stroke (odds ratio: 1.83, 95% confidence interval: 1.56–2.45, P decision making. This prognostic decision-making algorithm also shed light on the complex interactions between a number of risk factors in determining outcome after aneurysmal SAH. PMID:27512607

  6. Multi-attribute utility analysis--a major decision aid technique

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The multi-attribute utility analysis (MUA) is an applied decision aid technique within the overall framework of multi-criteria analysis. The technique is used for the quantitative appraisal of decision alternatives in complex programmes, projects or policies with reference to explicit, defined criteria or objectives to assess their suitability or desirability in the decision-making process. In the past, programmes, projects or policies were judged and assessed on a single criterion--finance--or, at best, on a very limited set of criteria and managed on an informal, intuitive basis. That simplistic approach currently falls short of expectations of the public or the demands of the present-day projects where complexity and diversity have grown enormously and the decision criteria have become multifarious. This MUA technique helps to analyse decision alternatives on a multi-criteria basis and ranks them from the most preferred to the least preferred for easier assimilation by decision-makers. The technique was used by the US Department of Energy in the mid-1980s in selecting suitable site(s) out of five nominated sites for the disposal of high-level radioactive wastes. It is increasingly being used by national organisations in the UK and abroad. (author)

  7. Allocating health care: cost-utility analysis, informed democratic decision making, or the veil of ignorance?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goold, S D

    1996-01-01

    Assuming that rationing health care is unavoidable, and that it requires moral reasoning, how should we allocate limited health care resources? This question is difficult because our pluralistic, liberal society has no consensus on a conception of distributive justice. In this article I focus on an alternative: Who shall decide how to ration health care, and how shall this be done to respect autonomy, pluralism, liberalism, and fairness? I explore three processes for making rationing decisions: cost-utility analysis, informed democratic decision making, and applications of the veil of ignorance. I evaluate these processes as examples of procedural justice, assuming that there is no outcome considered the most just. I use consent as a criterion to judge competing processes so that rationing decisions are, to some extent, self-imposed. I also examine the processes' feasibility in our current health care system. Cost-utility analysis does not meet criteria for actual or presumed consent, even if costs and health-related utility could be measured perfectly. Existing structures of government cannot creditably assimilate the information required for sound rationing decisions, and grassroots efforts are not representative. Applications of the veil of ignorance are more useful for identifying principles relevant to health care rationing than for making concrete rationing decisions. I outline a process of decision making, specifically for health care, that relies on substantive, selected representation, respects pluralism, liberalism, and deliberative democracy, and could be implemented at the community or organizational level.

  8. Reducing incomparability in multicriteria decision analysis: an extension of the ZAPROS method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Isabelle Tamanini

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available The ZAPROS method belongs to the Verbal Decision Analysis framework, and it aims at solving decision-making problems in a more realistic way from the decision maker's point of view. Quantitative methods can lead to loss of information when attempting to assign accurate measurements to verbal values. However, the feature exposed can cause a decrease in the comparison power of the method, making the incomparability cases between the alternatives unavoidable and leading to an unsatisfactory result of the problem, thus leading to an unsatisfactory outcome of the problem. Considering the limitation exposed, this work presents a methodological approach structured on the ZAPROS method to assist in decision-making in the Verbal Decision Analysis. The aim is to produce a complete result which is satisfactory to the decision maker, through the reduction of the cases of incomparability between alternatives. The modifications were mainly applied to the comparison of alternatives process and did not change the computational complexity of the method.

  9. The role of formal capital budgeting analysis in corporate investment decision-making: a literature review

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cooremans, Catherine (HEC Univ. of Geneva, Geneva (Switzerland))

    2009-07-01

    According to mainstream energy economics, energy-efficiency investment decisions made by businesses are strictly based on capital budgeting analysis. As a result, these investments are not decided upon because they are profitable only in appearance, since several hidden and transaction costs, as well as a high level of risk, lower their profitability below a firm's cost of capital. It is curious that the energy-economics literature hasn't explored important questions discussed for several years by some finance research: do financial factors and capital budgeting tools really determine investment decisions? Does the investment type influence the decision-making process and the final decision? Different streams of literature organizational finance, strategic decision-making, technology investment analysis have discussed these questions to improve our understanding of how capital budgeting systems work and have evolved. Several empirical studies have investigated the role of formal appraisal tools on capital investment decision-making. Their findings converge on the following conclusions: conventional financial analysis tools are widely used, and yet their real role is often secondary in investment decisions; sometimes they are simply used as a communication tool; the strategic character of investments has a heavier decisional weight. However, practices diverge with national cultures. The goal of this paper is to review this literature, in order to escape the fruitless debate on energy-efficiency investments profitability as well as to highlight new ways to consider and, more importantly, to influence - decisions made in this regard. Ultimately, a better knowledge of corporate investment decision-making will enable the design of more effective public policies to promote corporate energy-efficiency investments, since the partial influence of financial factors and the importance of strategic factors in investment decisions entail several practical conclusions

  10. Use of multi-criteria decision analysis in regulatory alternatives analysis: a case study of lead free solder.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malloy, Timothy F; Sinsheimer, Peter J; Blake, Ann; Linkov, Igor

    2013-10-01

    Regulators are implementing new programs that require manufacturers of products containing certain chemicals of concern to identify, evaluate, and adopt viable, safer alternatives. Such programs raise the difficult question for policymakers and regulated businesses of which alternatives are "viable" and "safer." To address that question, these programs use "alternatives analysis," an emerging methodology that integrates issues of human health and environmental effects with technical feasibility and economic impact. Despite the central role that alternatives analysis plays in these programs, the methodology itself is neither well-developed nor tailored to application in regulatory settings. This study uses the case of Pb-based bar solder and its non-Pb-based alternatives to examine the application of 2 multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) methods to alternatives analysis: multi-attribute utility analysis and outranking. The article develops and evaluates an alternatives analysis methodology and supporting decision-analysis software for use in a regulatory context, using weighting of the relevant decision criteria generated from a stakeholder elicitation process. The analysis produced complete rankings of the alternatives, including identification of the relative contribution to the ranking of each of the highest level decision criteria such as human health impacts, technical feasibility, and economic feasibility. It also examined the effect of variation in data conventions, weighting, and decision frameworks on the outcome. The results indicate that MCDA can play a critical role in emerging prevention-based regulatory programs. Multi-criteria decision analysis methods offer a means for transparent, objective, and rigorous analysis of products and processes, providing regulators and stakeholders with a common baseline understanding of the relative performance of alternatives and the trade-offs they present.

  11. Impact of proximity-adjusted preferences on rank-order stability in geographical multicriteria decision analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ligmann-Zielinska, Arika; Jankowski, Piotr

    2012-04-01

    This paper presents a new approach to deriving preferences assigned to evaluation criteria in geographical multicriteria decision analysis. In this approach, the preferences, expressed by numeric weights, are adjusted by distance measures derived from the explicit consideration of a locational structure. The structure is given by locations of decision options and high importance reference objects. The approach is demonstrated on the example of a house selection case study in San Diego, California. The results show that proximity-adjusted preferences for the evaluation criteria can alter significantly the rank order of decision options. Consequently, the explicit modeling of spatial preference variability may be needed in order to better account for decision-maker's preferences.

  12. Return or relocate? An inductive analysis of decision-making in a disaster.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henry, Jacques

    2013-04-01

    This paper proposes an inductive analysis of the decision as to whether to return or to relocate by persons in the State of Louisiana, United States, who evacuated after Hurricanes Katrina and Rita in August and September 2005, respectively. Drawing on interviews with evacuees in these events and extensive fieldwork in the impacted area, the paper seeks to identify the folk dimensions of the decision-making process, assess their arrangements, and situate the process in the larger context of risk and resilience in an advanced society. It suggests that, despite the material and emotional upheaval experienced by affected persons, the decision-making process is a rational endeavour combining a definite set of tightly interconnected factors, involving material dimensions and substantive values that can act in concert or in conflict. In addition, it indicates that there are significant variations by geographic areas, homeownership, and kind of decision. Some theoretical implications, practical measures, and suggestions for future research are examined.

  13. Decision analysis for the exploration of gas reserves: merging todim and thor

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos Francisco Simões Gomes

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available This article approaches the problem of selecting the non-dominated alternative for the destination of the natural gas reserves in the Mexilhão field in the Santos Basin, Brazil. Major aims of the case study reported here were to create a mechanism for assisting in the process of analyzing and selecting the best options for the destination of natural gas, and to enable the decision agent to choose the investment options best aligned to the expectations and objectives observed in the company strategies. The decision analysis employed in the study made use of the TODIM method and the THOR multicriteria decision support system. The application of both demonstrated that a decision analytic framework can be extremely useful when recommending options for upstream projects, owing to the fact that it can clearly identify the most important alternatives in the face of the scenarios tested and in relation to the criteria expressed.

  14. Cost-benefit analysis in decision making for diagnostic radiology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Diagnostic medical radiation represents the largest source of man-made radiation exposure to the general population. A brief review is given of certain current concepts and methods relating to benefit-risk analysis, in terms of economic costs and radiation risks to health, in relation to the benefits from diagnostic radiology in clinical medicine. (U.K.)

  15. Sequential meta-analysis : an efficient decision-making tool

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Tweel, Ingeborg; Bollen, Casper

    2010-01-01

    Background A cumulative meta-analysis of successive randomized controlled trials (RCTs) can be used to decide whether enough evidence has been obtained comparing a control and an intervention treatment or whether a new RCT should be initiated. In general, no adjustment is made for repeatedly testing

  16. Accelerating policy decisions to adopt haemophilus influenzae type B vaccine: a global, multivariable analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jessica C Shearer

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Adoption of new and underutilized vaccines by national immunization programs is an essential step towards reducing child mortality. Policy decisions to adopt new vaccines in high mortality countries often lag behind decisions in high-income countries. Using the case of Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib vaccine, this paper endeavors to explain these delays through the analysis of country-level economic, epidemiological, programmatic and policy-related factors, as well as the role of the Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunisation (GAVI Alliance. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Data for 147 countries from 1990 to 2007 were analyzed in accelerated failure time models to identify factors that are associated with the time to decision to adopt Hib vaccine. In multivariable models that control for Gross National Income, region, and burden of Hib disease, the receipt of GAVI support speeded the time to decision by a factor of 0.37 (95% CI 0.18-0.76, or 63%. The presence of two or more neighboring country adopters accelerated decisions to adopt by a factor of 0.50 (95% CI 0.33-0.75. For each 1% increase in vaccine price, decisions to adopt are delayed by a factor of 1.02 (95% CI 1.00-1.04. Global recommendations and local studies were not associated with time to decision. CONCLUSIONS: This study substantiates previous findings related to vaccine price and presents new evidence to suggest that GAVI eligibility is associated with accelerated decisions to adopt Hib vaccine. The influence of neighboring country decisions was also highly significant, suggesting that approaches to support the adoption of new vaccines should consider supply- and demand-side factors.

  17. Application of decision analysis to intelligent transportation system societal issues. Final report, 15 March 1996-14 March 1997

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Richardson, B.C.; Albers, W.A.; Kostyniuk, L.P.; Barnes, M.A.; Rodriguez, D.A.

    1997-03-14

    A demonstration of the use of decision analysis to address societal and institutional issues in an Intelligent Transportation System-based paratransit implementation was performed. A decision analysis technique called Multi-Organization Decision Analysis (MODA) was developed, and it is based on the Decision Risk Analysis process used widely in the private sector. Its objective is to facilitate consensus among the disparate public and private sector stakeholders in a decision process. The stakeholders are represented on a decision-making team, and they are supported by a team of analysts. MODA meetings are aided by facilitators. The process includes the development of a shared vision statement framing the problem, developing alternative solutions, analyzing the alternatives, and reaching a decision. Progression to the next step of the process does not occur until consensus is reached on the present step.

  18. Using Cost-Volume-Profit Analysis in Decision Making

    OpenAIRE

    IONELA-CLAUDIA DINA; GABRIELA BUŞAN

    2009-01-01

    The cost-volume-profit study the manner how evolve the total revenues, the total costs and operating profit, as changes occur in volume production, sale price, the unit variable cost and / or fixed costs of a product. Managers use this analysis to answer different questions like: How will incomes and costs be affected if we still sell 1.000 units? But if you expand or reduce selling prices? If we expand our business in foreign markets?

  19. Use of stochastic multi-criteria decision analysis to support sustainable management of contaminated sediments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sparrevik, Magnus; Barton, David N; Bates, Mathew E; Linkov, Igor

    2012-02-01

    Sustainable management of contaminated sediments requires careful prioritization of available resources and focuses on efforts to optimize decisions that consider environmental, economic, and societal aspects simultaneously. This may be achieved by combining different analytical approaches such as risk analysis (RA), life cycle analysis (LCA), multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA), and economic valuation methods. We propose the use of stochastic MCDA based on outranking algorithms to implement integrative sustainability strategies for sediment management. In this paper we use the method to select the best sediment management alternatives for the dibenzo-p-dioxin and -furan (PCDD/F) contaminated Grenland fjord in Norway. In the analysis, the benefits of health risk reductions and socio-economic benefits from removing seafood health advisories are evaluated against the detriments of remedial costs and life cycle environmental impacts. A value-plural based weighing of criteria is compared to criteria weights mimicking traditional cost-effectiveness (CEA) and cost-benefit (CBA) analyses. Capping highly contaminated areas in the inner or outer fjord is identified as the most preferable remediation alternative under all criteria schemes and the results are confirmed by a probabilistic sensitivity analysis. The proposed methodology can serve as a flexible framework for future decision support and can be a step toward more sustainable decision making for contaminated sediment management. It may be applicable to the broader field of ecosystem restoration for trade-off analysis between ecosystem services and restoration costs.

  20. Decision Analysis of Advertising and Price for Bilateral Competing Supply Chain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cheng-Tang Zhang

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The outcome of centralized equilibrium, prisoner's dilemma equilibrium, and decentralized equilibrium under different decision models has been provided with regards to bilateral competing supply chain system, either side of which is composed of one manufacturer and one retailer. Theoretical analysis indicates a positive correlation between price and one's own advertising investment level and a negative correlation between price and the opponent's advertising investment level. Through analysis of numerical examples, the results reveal a first mover advantage that leads to prisoner's dilemma in the system as well as the impact that price and advertising competition intensity has on the supply chain's choice of decision model.

  1. Análise exploratória de adoçantes de mesa via espectroscopia no infravermelho (FTIR e análise por componentes principais (ACP Exploratory analysis of commercial sweeteners by infrared spectroscopy (FTIR and principal component analysis (PCA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adriana Tozetto

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available Nos últimos vinte anos, o consumo de alimentos diet e light tem aumentado sistematicamente, o que tem propiciado o constante desenvolvimento de produtos desse gênero. Grande ênfase tem sido dada àqueles produtos que substituem sacarose por edulcorantes de baixos conteúdos calóricos ou não calóricos. Seguindo esta tendência, adoçantes de mesa têm sido desenvolvidos variando-se amplamente o veículo e o tipo de edulcorante empregado. Neste trabalho, a análise de componentes principais associada à espectroscopia na região do infravermelho médio foi utilizada com sucesso para diferenciar os veículos empregados na produção destes adoçantes, sendo que esta metodologia quimiométrica reduziu o espaço dimensional para dois fatores, explicando cerca de 82-% da variância total dos dados. As variáveis responsáveis por esta discriminação estão localizadas na região da impressão digital do espectro de infravermelho (752,2 a 1284,5 cm-1. A análise exploratória mostrou-se útil para a visualização destes dados, gerando informações semiquantitativas para os adoçantes constituídos por lactose/aspartame, observações que seriam dificilmente visualizadas sem o recurso quimiométrico aplicado.In the last twenty years, the consumption of diet and light foods has grown steadily, leading to the constant development of such products. Much emphasis has been placed on products that replace sucrose with sweeteners of low or zero calorie content. The development of new commercial sweeteners illustrates this tendency. In this work, principal component analysis and infrared spectroscopy were used to successfully differentiate the vehicles (mediums employed in the production of sweeteners. This chemometric methodology reduced the dimensional space to two factors, accounting for 82% of the total variance of the data. The variables responsible for this discrimination were localized in the fingerprint region of the infrared spectrum (752.2 to

  2. Econometric Analysis of Bulk Shipping: implications for investment strategies and financial decision-making

    OpenAIRE

    Tsolakis, S.

    2005-01-01

    textabstractThis thesis provides an econometric analysis of the bulk shipping markets and the implications for shipping investment and financial decision making. Chapter 1 sets the scene by providing a historic analysis of bulk shipping markets over the last 55 years. From this analysis, four shipping markets (freight, newbuilding, second-hand and demolition) are distinguished as well as a fifth one (ship finance) that acts as a facilitator to the other four. Also, with the help of correlatio...

  3. An Integrated Approach with Group Decision-Making for Strategy Selection in SWOT Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    İhsan Yüksel

    2012-01-01

    The main aim of this study was to improve the analytical dimension of SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats) analysis with group decision-making, which underlines the analysis of internal and external environments that in turn, will improve the definition of corporate strategy within the strategic planning process. The main issue of the study was how to select the most appropriate strategy by taking into consideration different effects of each factor of SWOT analysis on strat...

  4. A critical review and meta-analysis of the unconscious thought effect in medical decision making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miguel A. Vadillo

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Based on research on the increasingly popular unconscious thought effect (UTE, it has been suggested that physicians might make better diagnostic decisions after a period of distraction than after an equivalent amount of time of conscious deliberation. However, published attempts to demonstrate the UTE in medical decision making have yielded inconsistent results. In the present study, we report the results of a meta-analysis of all the available evidence on the UTE in medical decisions made by expert and novice clinicians. The meta-analysis failed to find a significant contribution of unconscious thought to the accuracy of medical decisions. This result cannot be easily attributed to any of the potential moderators of the UTE that have been discussed in the literature. Furthermore, a Bayes Factor analysis shows that most experimental conditions provide positive support for the null hypothesis, suggesting that these null results do not reflect a simple lack of statistical power. We suggest ways in which new studies could usefully provide further evidence on the UTE. Unless future research shows otherwise, the recommendation of using unconscious thought to improve medical decisions lacks empirical support.

  5. A critical review and meta-analysis of the unconscious thought effect in medical decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vadillo, Miguel A; Kostopoulou, Olga; Shanks, David R

    2015-01-01

    Based on research on the increasingly popular unconscious thought effect (UTE), it has been suggested that physicians might make better diagnostic decisions after a period of distraction than after an equivalent amount of time of conscious deliberation. However, published attempts to demonstrate the UTE in medical decision making have yielded inconsistent results. In the present study, we report the results of a meta-analysis of all the available evidence on the UTE in medical decisions made by expert and novice clinicians. The meta-analysis failed to find a significant contribution of unconscious thought (UT) to the accuracy of medical decisions. This result cannot be easily attributed to any of the potential moderators of the UTE that have been discussed in the literature. Furthermore, a Bayes factor analysis shows that most experimental conditions provide positive support for the null hypothesis, suggesting that these null results do not reflect a simple lack of statistical power. We suggest ways in which new studies could usefully provide further evidence on the UTE. Unless future research shows otherwise, the recommendation of using UT to improve medical decisions lacks empirical support. PMID:26042068

  6. A New Model for Decision Analysis in Economic Evaluations of Switchable Health Interventions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shekoufeh Nikfar

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Tolerability is an essential part of drug therapy and can affect health and economic outcomes. Withdrawal due to adverse reactions of medicines or lack of effectiveness is a major concern in long-term treatments that influences cost-effectiveness analysis. In case of possibility of stopping and switch to other interventions in decision analysis model, overhead costing may affect results and decision-making processes. Thus, modifying of classic decision analysis model seems to be necessary in such cases. My hypothesis is that by the use of a new decision model that can make links between different Markov-like models accurate cost calculation could be achieved. The appearance of model is going to be like a semicycle net. Considering the probability of switching from one treatment strategy to another, one could give more precise economic evaluation results. In the first step, this model needs to be tested and compared with the conventional model. In the second step, the impact of these differences has to be examined in the practical field of health, drug policy and supply management. By applying this new decision model in total health budget, threshold and its consequences on national health accounts and share of health in gross domestic product should be tested.

  7. Quantification of a decision-making failure probability of the accident management using cognitive analysis model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In the nuclear power plant, much knowledge is acquired through probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) of a severe accident, and accident management (AM) is prepared. It is necessary to evaluate the effectiveness of AM using the decision-making failure probability of an emergency organization, operation failure probability of operators, success criteria of AM and reliability of AM equipments in PSA. However, there has been no suitable qualification method for PSA so far to obtain the decision-making failure probability, because the decision-making failure of an emergency organization treats the knowledge based error. In this work, we developed a new method for quantification of the decision-making failure probability of an emergency organization using cognitive analysis model, which decided an AM strategy, in a nuclear power plant at the severe accident, and tried to apply it to a typical pressurized water reactor (PWR) plant. As a result: (1) It could quantify the decision-making failure probability adjusted to PSA for general analysts, who do not necessarily possess professional human factors knowledge, by choosing the suitable value of a basic failure probability and an error-factor. (2) The decision-making failure probabilities of six AMs were in the range of 0.23 to 0.41 using the screening evaluation method and in the range of 0.10 to 0.19 using the detailed evaluation method as the result of trial evaluation based on severe accident analysis of a typical PWR plant, and a result of sensitivity analysis of the conservative assumption, failure probability decreased about 50%. (3) The failure probability using the screening evaluation method exceeded that using detailed evaluation method by 99% of probability theoretically, and the failure probability of AM in this study exceeded 100%. From this result, it was shown that the decision-making failure probability was more conservative than the detailed evaluation method, and the screening evaluation method satisfied

  8. A decision analysis framework for stakeholder involvement and learning in groundwater management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. P. Karjalainen

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA methods are increasingly used to facilitate both rigorous analysis and stakeholder involvement in natural and water resource planning. Decision making in that context is often complex and multi-faceted with numerous trade-offs between social, environmental and economic impacts. However, practical applications of decision-support methods are often too technically oriented and hard to use, understand or interpret for all participants. The learning of participants in these processes is seldom examined, even though successful deliberation depends on learning. This paper analyzes the potential of an interactive MCDA framework, the decision analysis interview (DAI approach, for facilitating stakeholder involvement and learning in groundwater management. It evaluates the results of an MCDA process in assessing land-use management alternatives in a Finnish esker aquifer area where conflicting land uses affect the groundwater body and dependent ecosystems. In the assessment process, emphasis was placed on the interactive role of the MCDA tool in facilitating stakeholder participation and learning. The results confirmed that the structured decision analysis framework can foster learning and collaboration in a process where disputes and diverse interests are represented. Computer-aided interviews helped the participants to see how their preferences affected the desirability and ranking of alternatives. During the process, the participants' knowledge and preferences evolved as they assess their initial knowledge with the help of fresh scientific information. The decision analysis process led to the opening of a dialogue, showing the overall picture of the problem context, and the critical issues for the further process.

  9. Hierarchical Modelling of Flood Risk for Engineering Decision Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Custer, Rocco

    to changing flood risk. In the presence of flood protection structures, flood development depends on the state of all protection structures in the system. As such, hazard is a function not only of rainfall and river discharge, but also of protection structures’ fragility. A methodology for flood risk analysis.......g. dikes), engineering vulnerability models that allow considering the impact of flood proofing measures on residential building vulnerability seem to be lacking. Thus, a flood vulnerability modelling approach for residential buildings is proposed, which allows for detailed building and hazard...

  10. Decisions, Science, and Values: Crafting Regulatory Alternatives Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malloy, Timothy; Blake, Ann; Linkov, Igor; Sinsheimer, Peter

    2015-12-01

    Emerging "prevention-based" approaches to chemical regulation seek to minimize the use of toxic chemicals by mandating or directly incentivizing the adoption of viable safer alternative chemicals or processes. California and Maine are beginning to implement such programs, requiring manufacturers of consumer products containing certain chemicals of concern to identify and evaluate potential safer alternatives. In the European Union, the REACH program imposes similar obligations on manufacturers of certain substances of very high concern. Effective prevention-based regulation requires regulatory alternatives analysis (RAA), a methodology for comparing and evaluating the regulated chemical or process and its alternatives across a range of relevant criteria. RAA has both public and private dimensions. To a significant degree, alternatives analysis is an aspect of product design; that is, the process by which private industry designs the goods it sells. Accordingly, an RAA method should reflect the attributes of well-crafted product design tools used by businesses. But RAA adds health and environmental objectives to the mix of concerns taken into account by the product designer. Moreover, as part of a prevention-based regulatory regime, it implicates important public values such as legitimacy, equity, public engagement, and accountability. Thus, an RAA should reflect both private standards and public values, and be evaluated against them. This article adopts that perspective, identifying an integrated set of design principles for RAA, and illustrating the application of those principles. PMID:26299695

  11. Precision Measurement of sin2(theta_w) at MESA

    CERN Document Server

    Bucoveanu, R; Spiesberger, H

    2016-01-01

    A forthcoming experiment of low-energy elastic electron proton scattering at the new MESA facility in Mainz is planned to provide a high-precision measurement of the parity-violating polarisation asymmetry. This experiment is expected to lead to a precision determination of the weak mixing angle, competitive with Z-pole data. We discuss the challenges for theory to derive predictions with the required accuracy.

  12. Winning at litigation through decision analysis creating and executing winning strategies in any litigation or dispute

    CERN Document Server

    Celona, John

    2016-01-01

    This book is the first in-depth guide to applying the philosophy, theory, and methods of decision analysis to creating and executing winning legal strategies. With explanations that progress from introductory to advanced and practice problems at the end of each chapter, this is a book the reader will want to use and refer to for years to come. Practicing decision analysts, operations research and management science students, attorneys and law students will find this book an invaluable addition to their knowledge and skills. John Celona has over three decades of experience in teaching and applying decision analysis. John lectures in the School of Engineering at Stanford University and is on faculty at The Stanford Center for Professional Development, the American Course on Drug Development and Regulatory Sciences, and the Academy of the American Society for Healthcare Risk Management.

  13. Information Security Management: ANP Based Approach for Risk Analysis and Decision Making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Brožová

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available In information systems security, the objectives of risk analysis process are to help to identify new threats and vulnerabilities, to estimate their business impact and to provide a dynamic set of tools to control the security level of the information system. The identification of risk factors as well as the estimation of their business impact require tools for assessment of risk with multi-value scales according to different stakeholders’ point of view. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to model risk analysis decision making problem using semantic network to develop the decision network and the Analytical Network Process (ANP that allows solving complex problems taking into consideration quantitative and qualitative data. As a decision support technique ANP also measures the dependency among risk factors related to the elicitation of individual judgement. An empirical study involving the Forestry Company is used to illustrate the relevance of ANP.

  14. Modules for Experiments in Stellar Astrophysics (MESA): Binaries, Pulsations, and Explosions

    CERN Document Server

    Paxton, Bill; Schwab, Josiah; Bauer, Evan B; Bildsten, Lars; Cantiello, Matteo; Dessart, Luc; Farmer, R; Hu, H; Langer, N; Townsend, R H D; Townsley, Dean M; Timmes, F X

    2015-01-01

    We substantially update the capabilities of the open-source software instrument Modules for Experiments in Stellar Astrophysics (MESA). MESA can now simultaneously evolve an interacting pair of differentially rotating stars undergoing transfer and loss of mass and angular momentum, greatly enhancing the prior ability to model binary evolution. New MESA capabilities in fully coupled calculation of nuclear networks with hundreds of isotopes now allow MESA to accurately simulate advanced burning stages needed to construct supernova progenitor models. Implicit hydrodynamics with shocks can now be treated with MESA, enabling modeling of the entire massive star lifecycle, from pre-main sequence evolution to the onset of core collapse and nucleosynthesis from the resulting explosion. Coupling of the GYRE non-adiabatic pulsation instrument with MESA allows for new explorations of the instability strips for massive stars while also accelerating the astrophysical use of asteroseismology data. We improve treatment of ma...

  15. The systematic and flexible framework of value - Impact analysis with a decision support concept

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Generally, computer codes have been used to solve structured problems. Previous reports do not refer to the possibility of using computer codes to solve problems in VIA because VIA usually deals with un-structured problems. The authors believe that those problems can be solved with newly developed VIA technology, based on the decision-support system concept that was mentioned earlier. The authors, after witnessing the capabilities of decision-support systems to solve un-structured problems in fields outside of nuclear power plant analysis, believe that a decision support system can be adapted to serve VIA purposes. The VIADUCT is a computer code which has been proposed to deal with the un-structured problems. It is argued that the proposed VIA and its accompanying methodology is useful for decisions related to design improvements, but is less useful in making regulatory decisions. This is due to the use of general data instead of plant specific data. But when the computer code is sufficiently improved, the proposed methodology will be useful in making regulatory decisions

  16. tropical cyclone risk analysis: a decisive role of its track

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chelsea Nam, C.; Park, Doo-Sun R.; Ho, Chang-Hoi

    2016-04-01

    The tracks of 85 tropical cyclones (TCs) that made landfall to South Korea for the period 1979-2010 are classified into four clusters by using a fuzzy c-means clustering method. The four clusters are characterized by 1) east-short, 2) east-long, 3) west-long, and 4) west-short based on the moving routes around Korean peninsula. We conducted risk comparison analysis for these four clusters regarding their hazards, exposure, and damages. Here, hazard parameters are calculated from two different sources independently, one from the best-track data (BT) and the other from the 60 weather stations over the country (WS). The results show distinct characteristics of the four clusters in terms of the hazard parameters and economic losses (EL), suggesting that there is a clear track-dependency in the overall TC risk. It is appeared that whether there occurred an "effective collision" overweighs the intensity of the TC per se. The EL ranking did not agree with the BT parameters (maximum wind speed, central pressure, or storm radius), but matches to WS parameter (especially, daily accumulated rainfall and TC-influenced period). The west-approaching TCs (i.e. west-long and west-short clusters) generally recorded larger EL than the east-approaching TCs (i.e. east-short and east-long clusters), although the east-long clusters are the strongest in BT point of view. This can be explained through the spatial distribution of the WS parameters and the regional EL maps corresponding to it. West-approaching TCs accompanied heavy rainfall on the southern regions with the helps of the topographic effect on their tracks, and of the extended stay on the Korean Peninsula in their extratropical transition, that were not allowed to the east-approaching TCs. On the other hand, some regions had EL that are not directly proportional to the hazards, and this is partly attributed to spatial disparity in wealth and vulnerability. Correlation analysis also revealed the importance of rainfall; daily

  17. Extensions to Regret-based Decision Curve Analysis: An application to hospice referral for terminal patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tsalatsanis Athanasios

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Despite the well documented advantages of hospice care, most terminally ill patients do not reap the maximum benefit from hospice services, with the majority of them receiving hospice care either prematurely or delayed. Decision systems to improve the hospice referral process are sorely needed. Methods We present a novel theoretical framework that is based on well-established methodologies of prognostication and decision analysis to assist with the hospice referral process for terminally ill patients. We linked the SUPPORT statistical model, widely regarded as one of the most accurate models for prognostication of terminally ill patients, with the recently developed regret based decision curve analysis (regret DCA. We extend the regret DCA methodology to consider harms associated with the prognostication test as well as harms and effects of the management strategies. In order to enable patients and physicians in making these complex decisions in real-time, we developed an easily accessible web-based decision support system available at the point of care. Results The web-based decision support system facilitates the hospice referral process in three steps. First, the patient or surrogate is interviewed to elicit his/her personal preferences regarding the continuation of life-sustaining treatment vs. palliative care. Then, regret DCA is employed to identify the best strategy for the particular patient in terms of threshold probability at which he/she is indifferent between continuation of treatment and of hospice referral. Finally, if necessary, the probabilities of survival and death for the particular patient are computed based on the SUPPORT prognostication model and contrasted with the patient's threshold probability. The web-based design of the CDSS enables patients, physicians, and family members to participate in the decision process from anywhere internet access is available. Conclusions We present a theoretical

  18. Multi-criteria decision analysis in environmental sciences: ten years of applications and trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Ivy B; Keisler, Jeffrey; Linkov, Igor

    2011-09-01

    Decision-making in environmental projects requires consideration of trade-offs between socio-political, environmental, and economic impacts and is often complicated by various stakeholder views. Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) emerged as a formal methodology to face available technical information and stakeholder values to support decisions in many fields and can be especially valuable in environmental decision making. This study reviews environmental applications of MCDA. Over 300 papers published between 2000 and 2009 reporting MCDA applications in the environmental field were identified through a series of queries in the Web of Science database. The papers were classified by their environmental application area, decision or intervention type. In addition, the papers were also classified by the MCDA methods used in the analysis (analytic hierarchy process, multi-attribute utility theory, and outranking). The results suggest that there is a significant growth in environmental applications of MCDA over the last decade across all environmental application areas. Multiple MCDA tools have been successfully used for environmental applications. Even though the use of the specific methods and tools varies in different application areas and geographic regions, our review of a few papers where several methods were used in parallel with the same problem indicates that recommended course of action does not vary significantly with the method applied.

  19. The Decision Analysis Interview Approach in the Collaborative Management of a Large Regulated Water Course

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marttunen, Mika; Hämäläinen, Raimo P.

    2008-12-01

    There are always conflicting goals in the management of large water courses. However, by involving stakeholders actively in the planning and decision-making processes, it is possible to work together toward commonly acceptable solutions. In this article, we describe how we applied interactive multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) in a collaborative process which aimed at an ecologically, socially, and economically sustainable water course regulation policy. The stakeholders’ opinions about the alternative regulation schemes and the relative importance of their impacts were elicited with the HIPRE software. Altogether, 20 personal interactive decision analysis interviews (DAIs) were carried out with the stakeholders. Our experience suggests that the DAIs can considerably improve the quality and efficiency of the collaborative planning process. By improving communication and understanding of the decision situation in the steering group, the approach helped to develop a consensus solution in a case having strong conflicts of interest. In order to gain the full benefits of the MCDA approach, interactive preference elicitation is vital. It is also essential to integrate the approach tightly into the planning and decision-making process. The project’s home pages are available to the public at http://www.paijanne.hut.fi/ .

  20. 75 FR 35457 - Draft of the 2010 Causal Analysis/Diagnosis Decision Information System (CADDIS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-06-22

    ... AGENCY Draft of the 2010 Causal Analysis/Diagnosis Decision Information System (CADDIS) AGENCY... investigators find, access, organize, and share information useful for causal evaluations in aquatic systems... ``anonymous access'' system, which means that EPA will not know your identity or contact information...

  1. Using System Dynamics Analysis for Evaluating Neighborhood Economic Outcomes from Transportation and Land Use Decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Proposed Title: Using System Dynamics Analysis for Evaluating Neighborhood Economic Outcomes from Transportation and Land Use Decisions Topic (must choose one item from a drop-down list): Community Indicators Learning Objectives (must list 2): • What are the benefits and l...

  2. Sensitivity analysis for decision-making using the MORE method-A Pareto approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Integrated Assessment Modelling (IAM) incorporates knowledge from different disciplines to provide an overarching assessment of the impact of different management decisions. The complex nature of these models, which often include non-linearities and feedback loops, requires special attention for sensitivity analysis. This is especially true when the models are used to form the basis of management decisions, where it is important to assess how sensitive the decisions being made are to changes in model parameters. This research proposes an extension to the Management Option Rank Equivalence (MORE) method of sensitivity analysis; a new method of sensitivity analysis developed specifically for use in IAM and decision-making. The extension proposes using a multi-objective Pareto optimal search to locate minimum combined parameter changes that result in a change in the preferred management option. It is demonstrated through a case study of the Namoi River, where results show that the extension to MORE is able to provide sensitivity information for individual parameters that takes into account simultaneous variations in all parameters. Furthermore, the increased sensitivities to individual parameters that are discovered when joint parameter variation is taken into account shows the importance of ensuring that any sensitivity analysis accounts for these changes.

  3. An integrated probabilistic risk analysis decision support methodology for systems with multiple state variables

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) methods have been proven to be valuable in risk and reliability analysis. However, a weak link seems to exist between methods for analysing risks and those for making rational decisions. The integrated decision support system (IDSS) methodology presented in this paper attempts to address this issue in a practical manner. In consists of three phases: a PRA phase, a risk sensitivity analysis (SA) phase and an optimisation phase, which are implemented through an integrated computer software system. In the risk analysis phase the problem is analysed by the Boolean representation method (BRM), a PRA method that can deal with systems with multiple state variables and feedback loops. In the second phase the results obtained from the BRM are utilised directly to perform importance and risk SA. In the third phase, the problem is formulated as a multiple objective decision making problem in the form of multiple objective reliability optimisation. An industrial example is included. The resultant solutions of a five objective reliability optimisation are presented, on the basis of which rational decision making can be explored

  4. Measuring the Extent of European State Aid Control : An Econometric Analysis of the European Commission Decisions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brouwer, E.; Ozbugday, F.C.

    2011-01-01

    This paper provides an analysis of the European Commission (EC) decisions on state aid control using data on 550 state aid cases approved by the EC between 1998 and 2009. More specifically, we measure the determinants of the duration of state aid, total budget of state aid and daily budget of state

  5. Measuring the Extent of European State Aid Control : An Econometric Analysis of the European Commission Decisions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brouwer, E.; Ozbugday, F.C.

    2010-01-01

    This paper provides an analysis of the European Commission (EC) decisions on state aid control using data on 550 state aid cases approved by the EC between 1998 and 2009. More specifically, we measure the determinants of the duration of state aid, total budget of state aid and daily budget of state

  6. The adoption of total cost of ownership for sourcing decisions - a structural equations analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wouters, Marc; Anderson, James C.; Wynstra, Finn

    2005-01-01

    This study investigates the adoption of total cost of ownership (TCO) analysis to improve sourcing decisions. TCO can be seen as an application of activity based costing (ABC) that quantifies the costs that are involved in acquiring and using purchased goods or services. TCO supports purchasing deci

  7. Decision Aid Tool and Ontology-Based Reasoning for Critical Infrastructure Vulnerabilities and Threats Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choraś, Michał; Flizikowski, Adam; Kozik, Rafał; Hołubowicz, Witold

    In this paper, a decision aid tool (DAT) for Critical Infrastructure threats analysis and ranking is presented. We propose the ontology-based approach that provides classification, relationships and reasoning about vulnerabilities and threats of the critical infrastructures. Our approach is a part of research within INSPIRE project for increasing security and protection through infrastructure resilience.

  8. Climate Risk Informed Decision Analysis: A Hypothetical Application to the Waas Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gilroy, Kristin; Mens, Marjolein; Haasnoot, Marjolijn; Jeuken, Ad

    2016-04-01

    More frequent and intense hydrologic events under climate change are expected to enhance water security and flood risk management challenges worldwide. Traditional planning approaches must be adapted to address climate change and develop solutions with an appropriate level of robustness and flexibility. The Climate Risk Informed Decision Analysis (CRIDA) method is a novel planning approach embodying a suite of complementary methods, including decision scaling and adaptation pathways. Decision scaling offers a bottom-up approach to assess risk and tailors the complexity of the analysis to the problem at hand and the available capacity. Through adaptation pathway,s an array of future strategies towards climate robustness are developed, ranging in flexibility and immediacy of investments. Flexible pathways include transfer points to other strategies to ensure that the system can be adapted if future conditions vary from those expected. CRIDA combines these two approaches in a stakeholder driven process which guides decision makers through the planning and decision process, taking into account how the confidence in the available science, the consequences in the system, and the capacity of institutions should influence strategy selection. In this presentation, we will explain the CRIDA method and compare it to existing planning processes, such as the US Army Corps of Engineers Principles and Guidelines as well as Integrated Water Resources Management Planning. Then, we will apply the approach to a hypothetical case study for the Waas Region, a large downstream river basin facing rapid development threatened by increased flood risks. Through the case study, we will demonstrate how a stakeholder driven process can be used to evaluate system robustness to climate change; develop adaptation pathways for multiple objectives and criteria; and illustrate how varying levels of confidence, consequences, and capacity would play a role in the decision making process, specifically

  9. Mesa Diaphragm-Based Fabry-Perot Optical MEMS Pressure Sensor

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Yi-Xian Ge; Ming Wang; Hai-Tao Yan

    2008-01-01

    An optical micro electron mechanical system (MEMS) pressure sensor with a mesa membrane is presented. The operating principle of the MEMS pressure sensor is expatiated by the Fabry-Perot (F-P) interference and the relation between deflection and pressure is analyzed. Both the mechanical model of the mesa structure diaphragm and the signal averaging effect is validated by simulation, which declares that the mesa structure diaphragm is superior to the planar one on the parallelism and can reduce the signal averaging effect. Experimental results demonstrate that the mesa structure sensor has a reasonable linearity and sensitivity.

  10. An Integrated Approach with Group Decision-Making for Strategy Selection in SWOT Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    İhsan Yüksel

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available The main aim of this study was to improve the analytical dimension of SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats analysis with group decision-making, which underlines the analysis of internal and external environments that in turn, will improve the definition of corporate strategy within the strategic planning process. The main issue of the study was how to select the most appropriate strategy by taking into consideration different effects of each factor of SWOT analysis on strategy selection. The proposed model addresses strengths and opportunities as benefits and weaknesses and threats as costs. The model was solved with analytic network process (ANP and fuzzy technique for order performance by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS technique with group decision-making. The integrated ANP and Fuzzy TOPSIS model proposed at the end of the present study has been shown to be applicable to SWOT analysis and strategy selection.

  11. Decision analysis for mobilizing and retrieving sludge from double-shell tanks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This decision analysis evaluates alternative technologies for the initial mobilization and retrieval of sludges in double-shell tanks (DSTs). The analysis is from the perspective of the need to move sludges from one DST to another for interim retrieval. It supports the more general decision of which technologies to use to retreive various types of DST waste. The initial analysis is from the perspective of a typical DST with 2 ft of sludge to mobilize. During the course of the analysis, it became clear that it was important to also consider sludge mobilization in support of the high-level waste (HLW) vitrification demonstration plant, and in particular the risks associated with failing to meeting the minimum order requirements for the vendor, as well as the cost of mobilization and retrieval from the HLW vitrification source tanks

  12. Decision analysis for mobilizing and retrieving sludge from double-shell tanks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brothers, A.J.; Williams, N.C.; Dukelow, J.S.; Hansen, R.I. [and others

    1997-09-01

    This decision analysis evaluates alternative technologies for the initial mobilization and retrieval of sludges in double-shell tanks (DSTs). The analysis is from the perspective of the need to move sludges from one DST to another for interim retrieval. It supports the more general decision of which technologies to use to retreive various types of DST waste. The initial analysis is from the perspective of a typical DST with 2 ft of sludge to mobilize. During the course of the analysis, it became clear that it was important to also consider sludge mobilization in support of the high-level waste (HLW) vitrification demonstration plant, and in particular the risks associated with failing to meeting the minimum order requirements for the vendor, as well as the cost of mobilization and retrieval from the HLW vitrification source tanks.

  13. PROMETHEE Method and Sensitivity Analysis in the Software Application for the Support of Decision-Making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Petr Moldrik

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available PROMETHEE is one of methods, which fall into multi-criteria analysis (MCA. The MCA, as the name itself indicates, deals with the evaluation of particular variants according to several criteria. Developed software application (MCA8 for the support of multi-criteria decision-making was upgraded about PROMETHEE method and a graphic tool, which enables the execution of the sensitivity analysis. This analysis is used to ascertain how a given model output depends upon the input parameters. The MCA8 software application with mentioned graphic upgrade was developed for purposes of solving multi-criteria decision tasks. In the MCA8 is possible to perform sensitivity analysis by a simple form – through column graphs. We can change criteria significances (weights in these column graphs directly and watch the changes of the order of variants immediately.

  14. Foundations of risk analysis a knowledge and decision-oriented perspective

    CERN Document Server

    Aven

    2004-01-01

    Everyday we face decisions that carry an element of risk and uncertainty. The ability to analyse, communicate and control the level of risk entailed by these decisions remains one of the most pressing challenges to the analyst, scientist and manager. This book presents the foundational issues in risk analysis - expressing risk, understanding what risk means, building risk models, addressing uncertainty, and applying probability models to real problems. The principal aim of the book is to give the reader the knowledge and basic thinking they require to approach risk and uncertainty to support d

  15. Risk-Based Prioritization of Research for Aviation Security Using Logic-Evolved Decision Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eisenhawer, S. W.; Bott, T. F.; Sorokach, M. R.; Jones, F. P.; Foggia, J. R.

    2004-01-01

    The National Aeronautics and Space Administration is developing advanced technologies to reduce terrorist risk for the air transportation system. Decision support tools are needed to help allocate assets to the most promising research. An approach to rank ordering technologies (using logic-evolved decision analysis), with risk reduction as the metric, is presented. The development of a spanning set of scenarios using a logic-gate tree is described. Baseline risk for these scenarios is evaluated with an approximate reasoning model. Illustrative risk and risk reduction results are presented.

  16. Log Analysis as a way to assist Opera mini cluster management decisions

    OpenAIRE

    2008-01-01

    This thesis considers ways that analysis of Opera mini logs can assist decisions related to global and local load balancing of Opera mini clusters. The analy- sis is aimed to determine the distribution of traffic with respect to country of origin and server within the cluster over the period of 2 weeks by creating a system for extraction and analysis of log data. Findings show that a large part of traffic originates in Russia with India and Indonesia being second and third. ...

  17. Exploring the Decision Making Process in Statistical Data Analysis: A Qualitative Study of Quantitative Researchers

    OpenAIRE

    Ho, Timothy

    2015-01-01

    Quantitative data analysis is a cognitively demanding process. Inferences from quantitative analyses are often used to inform matters of public policy and to learn about social phenomena. However, as statistical analysis is typically conducted behind closed office doors, little is known about how analysts decide on the final statistical model that important policy decisions rely upon for determining the effectiveness of programs and policies. As social programming becomes increasingly reliant...

  18. The need to go beyond analysis in making risk-based decisions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ahearne, J.F. [The Sigma XI Center, Research Triangle Park, NC (United States)

    1999-12-01

    safer systems. However, the decision-makers and their advisors have lagged in going beyond analysis in making risk-based decisions. Whether it is a case like Brent Spar here in Europe or Yucca Mountain in the United States, significant lessons can be learned on how to make decisions in democratic societies.

  19. Methodological Aspects of Qualitative-Quantitative Analysis of Decision-Making Processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gawlik Remigiusz

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The paper aims at recognizing the possibilities and perspectives of application of qualitative-quantitative research methodology in the field of economics, with a special focus on production engineering management processes. The main goal of the research is to define the methods that would extend the research apparatus of economists and managers by tools that allow the inclusion of qualitative determinants into quantitative analysis. Such approach is justified by qualitative character of many determinants of economic occurrences. At the same time quantitative approach seems to be predominant in production engineering management, although methods of transposition of qualitative decision criteria can be found in literature. Nevertheless, international economics and management could profit from a mixed methodology, incorporating both types of determinants into joint decision-making models. The research methodology consists of literature review and own analysis of applicability of mixed qualitative-quantitative methods for managerial decision-making. The expected outcome of the research is to find which methods should be applied to include qualitative-quantitative analysis into multicriteria decision-making models in the fields of economics, with a special regard to production engineering management.

  20. Climate Risk Informed Decision Analysis (CRIDA): A novel practical guidance for Climate Resilient Investments and Planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeuken, Ad; Mendoza, Guillermo; Matthews, John; Ray, Patrick; Haasnoot, Marjolijn; Gilroy, Kristin; Olsen, Rolf; Kucharski, John; Stakhiv, Gene; Cushing, Janet; Brown, Casey

    2016-04-01

    over time. They are part of the Dutch adaptive planning approach Adaptive Delta Management, executed and develop by the Dutch Delta program. Both decision scaling and adaptation pathways have been piloted in studies worldwide. The objective of CRIDA is to mainstream effective climate adaptation for professional water managers. The CRIDA publication, due in april 2016, follows the generic water design planning design cycle. At each step, CRIDA describes stepwise guidance for incorporating climate robustness: problem definition, stress test, alternatives formulation and recommendation, evaluation and selection. In the presentation the origin, goal, steps and practical tools available at each step of CRIDA will be explained. In two other abstracts ("Climate Risk Informed Decision Analysis: A Hypothetical Application to the Waas Region" by Gilroy et al., "The Application of Climate Risk Informed Decision Analysis to the Ioland Water Treatment Plant in Lusaka, Zambia, by Kucharski et al.), the application of CRIDA to cases is explained

  1. Spatially explicit multi-criteria decision analysis for managing vector-borne diseases

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hongoh Valerie

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract The complex epidemiology of vector-borne diseases creates significant challenges in the design and delivery of prevention and control strategies, especially in light of rapid social and environmental changes. Spatial models for predicting disease risk based on environmental factors such as climate and landscape have been developed for a number of important vector-borne diseases. The resulting risk maps have proven value for highlighting areas for targeting public health programs. However, these methods generally only offer technical information on the spatial distribution of disease risk itself, which may be incomplete for making decisions in a complex situation. In prioritizing surveillance and intervention strategies, decision-makers often also need to consider spatially explicit information on other important dimensions, such as the regional specificity of public acceptance, population vulnerability, resource availability, intervention effectiveness, and land use. There is a need for a unified strategy for supporting public health decision making that integrates available data for assessing spatially explicit disease risk, with other criteria, to implement effective prevention and control strategies. Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA is a decision support tool that allows for the consideration of diverse quantitative and qualitative criteria using both data-driven and qualitative indicators for evaluating alternative strategies with transparency and stakeholder participation. Here we propose a MCDA-based approach to the development of geospatial models and spatially explicit decision support tools for the management of vector-borne diseases. We describe the conceptual framework that MCDA offers as well as technical considerations, approaches to implementation and expected outcomes. We conclude that MCDA is a powerful tool that offers tremendous potential for use in public health decision-making in general and vector

  2. Spatially explicit multi-criteria decision analysis for managing vector-borne diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hongoh, Valerie; Hoen, Anne Gatewood; Aenishaenslin, Cécile; Waaub, Jean-Philippe; Bélanger, Denise; Michel, Pascal

    2011-12-29

    The complex epidemiology of vector-borne diseases creates significant challenges in the design and delivery of prevention and control strategies, especially in light of rapid social and environmental changes. Spatial models for predicting disease risk based on environmental factors such as climate and landscape have been developed for a number of important vector-borne diseases. The resulting risk maps have proven value for highlighting areas for targeting public health programs. However, these methods generally only offer technical information on the spatial distribution of disease risk itself, which may be incomplete for making decisions in a complex situation. In prioritizing surveillance and intervention strategies, decision-makers often also need to consider spatially explicit information on other important dimensions, such as the regional specificity of public acceptance, population vulnerability, resource availability, intervention effectiveness, and land use. There is a need for a unified strategy for supporting public health decision making that integrates available data for assessing spatially explicit disease risk, with other criteria, to implement effective prevention and control strategies. Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is a decision support tool that allows for the consideration of diverse quantitative and qualitative criteria using both data-driven and qualitative indicators for evaluating alternative strategies with transparency and stakeholder participation. Here we propose a MCDA-based approach to the development of geospatial models and spatially explicit decision support tools for the management of vector-borne diseases. We describe the conceptual framework that MCDA offers as well as technical considerations, approaches to implementation and expected outcomes. We conclude that MCDA is a powerful tool that offers tremendous potential for use in public health decision-making in general and vector-borne disease management in particular.

  3. OPTIMAL BUSINESS DECISION SYSTEM FOR MULTINATIONALS: A MULTIFACTOR ANALYSIS OF SELECTED MANUFACTURING FIRMS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oforegbunam Thaddeus Ebiringa

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Traditional MIS has been made more effective through the integration of organization, human andtechnology factors into a decision matrix. The study is motivated by the need to find an optimal mixof interactive factors that will optimize the result of decision to apply ICT to manufacturingprocesses. The study used Factor analysis model based on the sampled opinion of forty (40operations/production managers and two thousand (2000 production line workers of three leadingmanufacturing firms: Uniliver Plc., PZ Plc, and Nigerian Breweries Plc operating in Aba IndustrialEstate of Nigeria. The results shows that a progressive mixed factor loading matrix, based on thepreferred ordered importance of resources factors in the formulation, implementation, monitoring,control and evaluation of ICT projects of the selected firms led to an average capability improvementof 0.764 in decision efficiency. This is considered strategic for achieving balanced corporate growthand development.

  4. Project management in mine actions using Multi-Criteria-Analysis-based decision support system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marko Mladineo

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, a Web-based Decision Support System (Web DSS, that supports humanitarian demining operations and restoration of mine-contaminated areas, is presented. The financial shortage usually triggers a need for priority setting in Project Management in Mine actions. As part of the FP7 Project TIRAMISU, a specialized Web DSS has been developed to achieve a fully transparent priority setting process. It allows stakeholders and donors to actively join the decision making process using a user-friendly and intuitive Web application. The main advantage of this Web DSS is its unique way of managing a mine action project using Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA, namely the PROMETHEE method, in order to select priorities for demining actions. The developed Web DSS allows decision makers to use several predefined scenarios (different criteria weights or to develop their own, so it allows project managers to compare different demining possibilities with ease.

  5. INTEGRATION OF MULTICRITERIA ANALYSIS INTO DECISION SUPPORT CONCEPT FOR URBAN ROAD INFRASTRUCTURE MANAGEMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Niksa Jajac

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Urban road infrastructure management deals with complex decision making process. There are several reasons for a complexity such as: multi-disciplinarity, lots of participants, huge quantity of information, limited budget, conflict goals and criteria. These facts indicate that decision making processes in urban road infrastructure management belong to ill-defined problems. In order to cope with such complexity and to help managers during decision making processes this research proposes an application of multicriteria methods. Therefore, a generic concept of decision support for urban road infrastructure management based on multicriteria analysis is proposed. Three multicriteria methods: AHP, SAW and PROMETHHE, in a combination with 0-1 programming are used. The main advantage of an application of multicriteria analysis is that all stakeholders could be objectively included into decision process. Therefore, setting up of criteria weights involves opinions from all stakeholders’ groups (stakeholders are divided into three characteristic groups. Evaluation of criteria importance (weights is based on three sets of opinions processed by Analytic Hierarchic Processing (AHP method. Three sets of criteria are then processed by Simple Additive Weighting (SAW method resulting in a final set of criteria weights. By using SAW method, relative importance of opinions of all three stakeholders’ groups is introduced. Collected data are then processed by PROMETHEE multicriteria methods. Proposed decision support concept is validated on the problem of improvement of one part of an urban road infrastructure system for a large urban area of town of Split. The concept is efficiently applied on several problems regarding parking garages: location selection, sub-project ranking, definition of an investment strategy.

  6. Evaluation of SOVAT: An OLAP-GIS decision support system for community health assessment data analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Parmanto Bambang

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Data analysis in community health assessment (CHA involves the collection, integration, and analysis of large numerical and spatial data sets in order to identify health priorities. Geographic Information Systems (GIS enable for management and analysis using spatial data, but have limitations in performing analysis of numerical data because of its traditional database architecture. On-Line Analytical Processing (OLAP is a multidimensional datawarehouse designed to facilitate querying of large numerical data. Coupling the spatial capabilities of GIS with the numerical analysis of OLAP, might enhance CHA data analysis. OLAP-GIS systems have been developed by university researchers and corporations, yet their potential for CHA data analysis is not well understood. To evaluate the potential of an OLAP-GIS decision support system for CHA problem solving, we compared OLAP-GIS to the standard information technology (IT currently used by many public health professionals. Methods SOVAT, an OLAP-GIS decision support system developed at the University of Pittsburgh, was compared against current IT for data analysis for CHA. For this study, current IT was considered the combined use of SPSS and GIS ("SPSS-GIS". Graduate students, researchers, and faculty in the health sciences at the University of Pittsburgh were recruited. Each round consisted of: an instructional video of the system being evaluated, two practice tasks, five assessment tasks, and one post-study questionnaire. Objective and subjective measurement included: task completion time, success in answering the tasks, and system satisfaction. Results Thirteen individuals participated. Inferential statistics were analyzed using linear mixed model analysis. SOVAT was statistically significant (α = .01 from SPSS-GIS for satisfaction and time (p Conclusion Using SOVAT, tasks were completed more efficiently, with a higher rate of success, and with greater satisfaction, than the

  7. GPs' decision-making when prescribing medicines for breastfeeding women: Content analysis of a survey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amir Lisa H

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Many breastfeeding women seek medical care from general practitioners (GPs for various health problems and GPs may consider prescribing medicines in these consultations. Prescribing medicines to a breastfeeding mother may lead to untimely cessation of breastfeeding or a breastfeeding mother may be denied medicines due to the possible risk to her infant, both of which may lead to unwanted consequences. Information on factors governing GPs' decision-making and their views in such situations is limited. Methods GPs providing shared maternity care at the Royal Women's Hospital, Melbourne were surveyed using an anonymous postal survey to determine their knowledge, attitudes and practices on medicines and breastfeeding, in 2007/2008 (n = 640. Content analysis of their response to a question concerning decision-making about the use of medicine for a breastfeeding woman was conducted. A thematic network was constructed with basic, organising and global themes. Results 335 (52% GPs responded to the survey, and 253 (76% provided information on the last time they had to decide about the use of medicine for a breastfeeding woman. Conditions reported were mastitis (24%, other infections (24% and depressive disorders (21%. The global theme that emerged was "complexity of managing risk in prescribing for breastfeeding women". The organising themes were: certainty around decision-making; uncertainty around decision-making; need for drug information to be available, consistent and reliable; joint decision-making; the vulnerable "third party" and infant feeding decision. Decision-making is a spectrum from a straight forward decision, such as treatment of mastitis, to a complicated one requiring multiple inputs and consideration. GPs use more information seeking and collaboration in decision-making when they perceive the problem to be more complex, for example, in postnatal depression. Conclusion GPs feel that prescribing medicines for

  8. Parent-son decision-making about human papillomavirus vaccination: a qualitative analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexander Andreia B

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Licensed for use in males in 2009, Human Papillomavirus (HPV vaccination rates in adolescent males are extremely low. Literature on HPV vaccination focuses on females, adult males, or parents of adolescent males, without including adolescent males or the dynamics of the parent-son interaction that may influence vaccine decision-making. The purpose of this paper is to examine the decision-making process of parent-son dyads when deciding whether or not to get vaccinated against HPV. Methods Twenty-one adolescent males (ages 13–17, with no previous HPV vaccination, and their parents/guardians were recruited from adolescent primary care clinics serving low to middle income families in a large Midwestern city. Dyad members participated in separate semi-structured interviews assessing the relative role of the parent and son in the decision regarding HPV vaccination. Interviews were recorded, transcribed, and coded using inductive content analysis. Results Parents and sons focused on protection as a reason for vaccination; parents felt a need to protect their child, while sons wanted to protect their own health. Parents and sons commonly misinterpreted the information about the vaccine. Sons were concerned about an injection in the penis, while some parents and sons thought the vaccine would protect them against other sexually transmitted infections including Herpes, Gonorrhea, and HIV. Parents and sons recalled that the vaccine prevented genital warts rather than cancer. The vaccine decision-making process was rapid and dynamic, including an initial reaction to the recommendation for HPV vaccine, discussion between parent and son, and the final vaccine decision. Provider input was weighed in instances of initial disagreement. Many boys felt that this was the first health care decision that they had been involved in. Dyads which reported shared decision-making were more likely to openly communicate about sexual issues than those

  9. Adding value in oil and gas by applying decision analysis methodologies: case history

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Marot, Nicolas [Petro Andina Resources Inc., Alberta (Canada); Francese, Gaston [Tandem Decision Solutions, Buenos Aires (Argentina)

    2008-07-01

    Petro Andina Resources Ltd. together with Tandem Decision Solutions developed a strategic long range plan applying decision analysis methodology. The objective was to build a robust and fully integrated strategic plan that accomplishes company growth goals to set the strategic directions for the long range. The stochastic methodology and the Integrated Decision Management (IDM{sup TM}) staged approach allowed the company to visualize the associated value and risk of the different strategies while achieving organizational alignment, clarity of action and confidence in the path forward. A decision team involving jointly PAR representatives and Tandem consultants was established to carry out this four month project. Discovery and framing sessions allow the team to disrupt the status quo, discuss near and far reaching ideas and gather the building blocks from which creative strategic alternatives were developed. A comprehensive stochastic valuation model was developed to assess the potential value of each strategy applying simulation tools, sensitivity analysis tools and contingency planning techniques. Final insights and results have been used to populate the final strategic plan presented to the company board providing confidence to the team, assuring that the work embodies the best available ideas, data and expertise, and that the proposed strategy was ready to be elaborated into an optimized course of action. (author)

  10. The use of multi-criteria decision analysis to tackle waste management problems: a literature review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Achillas, Charisios; Moussiopoulos, Nicolas; Karagiannidis, Avraam; Banias, Georgias; Perkoulidis, George

    2013-02-01

    Problems in waste management have become more and more complex during recent decades. The increasing volumes of waste produced and social environmental consciousness present prominent drivers for environmental managers towards the achievement of a sustainable waste management scheme. However, in practice, there are many factors and influences - often mutually conflicting - criteria for finding solutions in real-life applications. This paper presents a review of the literature on multi-criteria decision aiding in waste management problems for all reported waste streams. Despite limitations, which are clearly stated, most of the work published in this field is reviewed. The present review aims to provide environmental managers and decision-makers with a thorough list of practical applications of the multi-criteria decision analysis techniques that are used to solve real-life waste management problems, as well as the criteria that are mostly employed in such applications according to the nature of the problem under study. Moreover, the paper explores the advantages and disadvantages of using multi-criteria decision analysis techniques in waste management problems in comparison to other available alternatives.

  11. LIMITS OF SWOT ANALYSIS AND THEIR IMPACT ON DECISIONS IN EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Florin POPESCU

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, threats analysis is useful in the decision-making process – crucial to any organization manager and/or strategist. This study aims to add value to the existing literature on SWOT, indicating its use and limitations, showing the need to link SWOT to other strategic tools and methodologies. As the current environment is turbulent and unpredictable, and economic cycles no longer comply with traditional rules, the precaution has become extremely important. That’s why SWOT should be supplemented with newer dynamic analysis capabilities and strategy tools, as early warning and opportunities system (EWOS, which can provide crucial inputs for scenario building, strategic thinking and decisions. EWOS is a novel approach based on three concepts that contribute to the ability of organization/project managers to develop outstanding capacity to "understand" and "benefit" in identifying opportunities and threats: (i business and competitive intelligence; (ii early warning thinking; (iii strategic thinking in decision making process. EWOS is of practical use for strategists and decision makers.

  12. An Analytic Hierarchy Process Analysis: Application to Subscriber Retention Decisions in the Nigerian Mobile Telecommunications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adebiyi Sulaimon Olanrewaju

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The introduction of mobile number portability (MNP in the Nigerian telecommunications industry has brought a new challenge for mobile operators. This study investigates the use of Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP in customer retention decisions in the Nigerian telecommunication industry using a cross-sectional survey design. Primary data were obtained through questionnaires administered to 480 mobile telecommunications subscribers in six tertiary institutions located in Lagos State, Nigeria. These educational institutions were chosen using a multistage sampling technique. Of 438 questionnaires received from subscribers, 408 were valid. Based on this sample data an AHP model was built to assess the determinants of customer retention decisions. Next, eigen values, an eigen vector and maximum lambda (λMax were obtained using the AHP analysis for the matrices. This analysis shows that customers considered call quality as the important in the retention decision. We conclude that AHP is a meaningful tool for determining what motivates retention decisions, that can help network operators formulate effective customer retention strategies.

  13. Optimization-based multicriteria decision analysis for identification of desired petroleum-contaminated groundwater remediation strategies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Hongwei; Feng, Mao; He, Li; Ren, Lixia

    2015-06-01

    The conventional multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) methods used for pollution control generally depend on the data currently available. This could limit their real-world applications, especially where the input data (e.g., the most cost-effective remediation cost and eventual contaminant concentration) might vary by scenario. This study proposes an optimization-based MCDA (OMCDA) framework to address such a challenge. It is capable of (1) capturing various preferences of decision-makers, (2) screening and analyzing the performance of various optimized remediation strategies under changeable scenarios, and (3) compromising incongruous decision analysis results. A real-world case study is employed for demonstration, where four scenarios are considered with each one corresponding to a set of weights representative of the preference of the decision-makers. Four criteria are selected, i.e., optimal total pumping rate, remediation cost, contaminant concentration, and fitting error. Their values are determined through running optimization and optimization-based simulation procedures. Four sets of the most desired groundwater remediation strategies are identified, implying specific pumping rates under varied scenarios. Results indicate that the best action lies in groups 32 and 16 for the 5-year, groups 49 and 36 for the 10-year, groups 26 and 13 for the 15-year, and groups 47 and 13 for the 20-year remediation. PMID:25613797

  14. Integrated risk/decision analysis for protection of groundwater from hazardous material contamination

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Public concern over groundwater contamination has focused attention on the management of hazardous materials in the U.S. Recent developments in the field of risk assessment can provide the engineering profession with the necessary tools for responding to this public concern. This paper presents an integrated risk/decision analysis methodology needed for systematically analyzing alternative courses of actions and their probable impact on groundwater resources. The analysis begins with the development of an event tree. A list of all possible event sequences to be considered has been compiled and a detailed analysis of the consequences of each event is conducted. Stemming from a decision on development over the recharge zone of an aquifer, and leading to the introduction of hazardous materials into the groundwater and contamination of the potable water supply, all events have been sequentially structured with both their positive and negative outcomes. The next step is to develop a comprehensive fault tree from the event tree. The logic relationships described by the fault tree are translated into algebraic operations allowing the objective determination of risk for any pathway leading from the initial policy decisions to the final consequence of contaminated groundwater. Risk acceptability analysis is based on historical risk data for the situations being considered. Probability limits for each potential risk are determined for each risk category associated with the specific situation and based on the revealed preference concept in quantitative psychology. The categorization of risks permits the assessment of acceptable risk for situations not considered in the past. Comparison of these risk limits with the risk probability values calculated from the event tree/fault tree analysis allows decision-makers to screen alternative courses of action based on their risk acceptabilities

  15. Using multi-criteria decision analysis to assess the vulnerability of drinking water utilities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joerin, Florent; Cool, Geneviève; Rodriguez, Manuel J; Gignac, Marc; Bouchard, Christian

    2010-07-01

    Outbreaks of microbiological waterborne disease have increased governmental concern regarding the importance of drinking water safety. Considering the multi-barrier approach to safe drinking water may improve management decisions to reduce contamination risks. However, the application of this approach must consider numerous and diverse kinds of information simultaneously. This makes it difficult for authorities to apply the approach to decision making. For this reason, multi-criteria decision analysis can be helpful in applying the multi-barrier approach to vulnerability assessment. The goal of this study is to propose an approach based on a multi-criteria analysis method in order to rank drinking water systems (DWUs) based on their vulnerability to microbiological contamination. This approach is illustrated with an application carried out on 28 DWUs supplied by groundwater in the Province of Québec, Canada. The multi-criteria analysis method chosen is measuring attractiveness by a categorical based evaluation technique methodology allowing the assessment of a microbiological vulnerability indicator (MVI) for each DWU. Results are presented on a scale ranking DWUs from less vulnerable to most vulnerable to contamination. MVI results are tested using a sensitivity analysis on barrier weights and they are also compared with historical data on contamination at the utilities. The investigation demonstrates that MVI provides a good representation of the vulnerability of DWUs to microbiological contamination.

  16. A multicriteria decision analysis model and risk assessment framework for carbon capture and storage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Humphries Choptiany, John Michael; Pelot, Ronald

    2014-09-01

    Multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) has been applied to various energy problems to incorporate a variety of qualitative and quantitative criteria, usually spanning environmental, social, engineering, and economic fields. MCDA and associated methods such as life-cycle assessments and cost-benefit analysis can also include risk analysis to address uncertainties in criteria estimates. One technology now being assessed to help mitigate climate change is carbon capture and storage (CCS). CCS is a new process that captures CO2 emissions from fossil-fueled power plants and injects them into geological reservoirs for storage. It presents a unique challenge to decisionmakers (DMs) due to its technical complexity, range of environmental, social, and economic impacts, variety of stakeholders, and long time spans. The authors have developed a risk assessment model using a MCDA approach for CCS decisions such as selecting between CO2 storage locations and choosing among different mitigation actions for reducing risks. The model includes uncertainty measures for several factors, utility curve representations of all variables, Monte Carlo simulation, and sensitivity analysis. This article uses a CCS scenario example to demonstrate the development and application of the model based on data derived from published articles and publicly available sources. The model allows high-level DMs to better understand project risks and the tradeoffs inherent in modern, complex energy decisions.

  17. GIS Based Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis For Cement Plant Site Selection For Cuddalore District

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chhabra, A.

    2015-12-01

    India's cement industry is a vital part of its economy, providing employment to more than a million people. On the back of growing demands, due to increased construction and infrastructural activities cement market in India is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.96 percent during the period 2014-2019. In this study, GIS-based spatial Multi Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) is used to determine the optimum and alternative sites to setup a cement plant. This technique contains a set of evaluation criteria which are quantifiable indicators of the extent to which decision objectives are realized. In intersection with available GIS (Geographical Information System) and local ancillary data, the outputs of image analysis serves as input for the multi-criteria decision making system. Moreover, the following steps were performed so as to represent the criteria in GIS layers, which underwent the GIS analysis in order to get several potential sites. Satellite imagery from LANDSAT 8 and ASTER DEM were used for the analysis. Cuddalore District in Tamil Nadu was selected as the study site as limestone mining is already being carried out in that region which meets the criteria of raw material for cement production. Several other criteria considered were land use land cover (LULC) classification (built-up area, river, forest cover, wet land, barren land, harvest land and agriculture land), slope, proximity to road, railway and drainage networks.

  18. Shared Decision-Making in Oncology - A Qualitative Analysis of Healthcare Providers' Views on Current Practice.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wiebke Frerichs

    Full Text Available Despite an increased awareness of shared decision-making (SDM and its prominent position on the health policy agenda, its implementation in routine care remains a challenge in Germany. In order to overcome this challenge, it is important to understand healthcare providers' views regarding SDM and to take their perspectives and opinions into account in the development of an implementation program. The present study aimed at exploring a the attitudes of different healthcare providers regarding SDM in oncology and b their experiences with treatment decisions in daily practice.A qualitative study was conducted using focus groups and individual interviews with different healthcare providers at the University Cancer Center Hamburg, Germany. Focus groups and interviews were audio-recorded, transcribed and analyzed using conventional content analysis and descriptive statistics.N = 4 focus groups with a total of N = 25 participants and N = 17 individual interviews were conducted. Attitudes regarding SDM varied greatly between the different participants, especially concerning the definition of SDM, the attitude towards the degree of patient involvement in decision-making and assumptions about when SDM should take place. Experiences on how treatment decisions are currently made varied. Negative experiences included time and structural constraints, and a lack of (multidisciplinary communication. Positive experiences comprised informed patients, involvement of relatives and a good physician-patient relationship.The results show that German healthcare providers in oncology have a range of attitudes that currently function as barriers towards the implementation of SDM. Also, their experiences on how decision-making is currently done reveal difficulties in actively involving patients in decision-making processes. It will be crucial to take these attitudes and experiences seriously and to subsequently disentangle existing misconceptions in future implementation

  19. Diseño de una mesa con enchufes incorporados

    OpenAIRE

    Castillo Betorz, Juan

    2009-01-01

    Necesidades tecnológicas en la docencia universitaria requieren un sistema para proporcionar electricidad a partir de enchufes en los escritorios del alumnado. Este sistema debe proporcionar una gran movilidad de las mesas para que puedan colocarse según los requerimientos de cada clase. También se deben facilitar las tareas de mantenimiento y limpieza, y evitar el cableado por el suelo para mejorar la accesibilidad a las aulas con silla de ruedas. El sistema consistirá en l...

  20. Preliminary evaluation of fluid chemistry in the East Mesa KGRA

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hoagland, J.R.

    1976-10-04

    One of the major problems needing consideration when bringing a geothermal field into production is the anticipation and control of mineral precipitation in both the producing formations and production equipment. Prediction of the chemical interactions between natural multicomponent thermal fluids and the minerals comprising a producing formation can be accomplished by the study of equilibrium models approximating the natural system. Models are constructed from theoretically and experimentally derived thermodynamic data for the involved minerals and aqueous species. This equilibrium modeling approach was applied to the rock-water system at the East Mesa geothermal area in the Imperial Valley of California. Results of petrographic and fluid analyses are given. (JGB)

  1. The neural correlates of moral decision-making: A systematic review and meta-analysis of moral evaluations and response decision judgements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garrigan, Beverley; Adlam, Anna L R; Langdon, Peter E

    2016-10-01

    The aims of this systematic review were to determine: (a) which brain areas are consistently more active when making (i) moral response decisions, defined as choosing a response to a moral dilemma, or deciding whether to accept a proposed solution, or (ii) moral evaluations, defined as judging the appropriateness of another's actions in a moral dilemma, rating moral statements as right or wrong, or identifying important moral issues; and (b) shared and significantly different activation patterns for these two types of moral judgements. A systematic search of the literature returned 28 experiments. Activation likelihood estimate analysis identified the brain areas commonly more active for moral response decisions and for moral evaluations. Conjunction analysis revealed shared activation for both types of moral judgement in the left middle temporal gyrus, cingulate gyrus, and medial frontal gyrus. Contrast analyses found no significant clusters of increased activation for the moral evaluations-moral response decisions contrast, but found that moral response decisions additionally activated the left and right middle temporal gyrus and the right precuneus. Making one's own moral decisions involves different brain areas compared to judging the moral actions of others, implying that these judgements may involve different processes.

  2. MESA/MEP at American River College: Year One Evaluation Report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Beth S.; And Others

    In 1989, the Mathematics, Engineering, and Science Achievement (MESA)/Minority Engineering Program (MEP) was initiated at American River College. The MESA/MEP program recruits Black, Hispanic, and Native American students and provides assistance, encouragement, and enrichment programs to help them succeed in the fields of mathematics, engineering,…

  3. 76 FR 22075 - Divide Ranger District, Rio Grande National Forest; CO; Black Mesa Vegetation Management Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-04-20

    ... Vegetation Management Project AGENCY: Forest Service, USDA. ACTION: Notice of intent to prepare an... Mesa Vegetation Management Project Public Comment. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Diana McGinn at 719... for Action The purpose and need for the Black Mesa Vegetation Management Project is move...

  4. Towards for Analyzing Alternatives of Interaction Design Based on Verbal Decision Analysis of User Experience

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marília Soares Mendes

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available In domains (as digital TV, smart home, and tangible interfaces that represent a new paradigm of interactivity, the decision of the most appropriate interaction design solution is a challenge. HCI researchers have promoted in their works the validation of design alternative solutions with users before producing the final solution. User experience with technology is a subject that has also gained ground in these works in order to analyze the appropriate solution(s. Following this concept, a study was accomplished under the objective of finding a better interaction solution for an application of mobile TV. Three executable applications of mobile TV prototypes were built. A Verbal Decision Analysis model was applied on the investigations for the favorite characteristics in each prototype based on the user’s experience and their intentions of use. This model led a performance of a qualitative analysis which objectified the design of a new prototype.

  5. Extended warranties, maintenance service and lease contracts modeling and analysis for decision-making

    CERN Document Server

    Murthy, D N Prabhakar

    2014-01-01

    Serving to unify the existing literature on extended warranties, maintenance service contracts and lease contracts, this book also presents a unique perspective on the topic focussed on cost analysis and decision-making from the perspectives of the parties involved. Using a game theoretic approach together with mathematical modelling, results are presented in an integrated manner with key topics that require further research highlighted in order to serve as a starting point for researchers (engineers and statisticians) who are interested in doing further work in these areas. Designed to assist practitioners (managers, engineers, applied statisticians) who are involved with extended warranties, maintenance service contracts and lease contracts, the book provides them with the models and techniques needed for proper cost analysis and effective decision-making. The book is also suitable for use as a reference text in industrial engineering, applied statistics, operations research and management.

  6. Risk analysis for CHP decision making within the conditions of an open electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Decision making under uncertainty is a difficult task in most areas. Investment decisions for combined heat and power production (CHP) are certainly one of the areas where it is difficult to find an optimal solution since the payback period is several years and parameters change due to different perturbing factors of economic and mostly political nature. CHP is one of the most effective measures for saving primary energy and reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. The implementation of EU directives on the promotion of cogeneration based on useful heat demand in the internal energy market will accelerate CHP installation. The expected number of small CHP installations will be very high in the near future. A quick, reliable and simple tool for economic evaluation of small CHP systems is required. Since evaluation is normally made by sophisticated economic computer models which are rather expensive, a simple point estimate economic model was developed which was later upgraded by risk methodology to give more informative results for better decision making. This paper presents a reliable computer model entitled ''Computer program for economic evaluation analysis of CHP'' as a tool for analysis and economic evaluation of small CHP systems with the aim of helping the decision maker. The paper describes two methods for calculation of the sensitivity of the economic results to changes of input parameters and the uncertainty of the results: the classic/static method and the risk method. The computer program uses risk methodology by applying rate at RISK software on an existing conventional economic model. The use of risk methodology for economic evaluation can improve decisions by incorporating all possible information (knowledge), which cannot be done in the conventional economic model due to its limitations. The methodology was tested on the case of a CHP used in a smaller hospital. (author)

  7. Risk analysis for CHP decision making within the conditions of an open electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Decision making under uncertainty is a difficult task in most areas. Investment decisions for combined heat and power production (CHP) are certainly one of the areas where it is difficult to find an optimal solution since the payback period is several years and parameters change due to different perturbing factors of economic and mostly political nature. CHP is one of the most effective measures for saving primary energy and reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. The implementation of EU directives on the promotion of cogeneration based on useful heat demand in the internal energy market will accelerate CHP installation. The expected number of small CHP installations will be very high in the near future. A quick, reliable and simple tool for economic evaluation of small CHP systems is required. Since evaluation is normally made by sophisticated economic computer models which are rather expensive, a simple point estimate economic model was developed which was later upgraded by risk methodology to give more informative results for better decision making. This paper presents a reliable computer model entitled 'Computer program for economic evaluation analysis of CHP' as a tool for analysis and economic evaluation of small CHP systems with the aim of helping the decision maker. The paper describes two methods for calculation of the sensitivity of the economic results to changes of input parameters and the uncertainty of the results: the classic/static method and the risk method. The computer program uses risk methodology by applying RISK software on an existing conventional economic model. The use of risk methodology for economic evaluation can improve decisions by incorporating all possible information (knowledge), which cannot be done in the conventional economic model due to its limitations. The methodology was tested on the case of a CHP used in a smaller hospital

  8. Baseline studies in the desert ecosystem at East Mesa Geothermal Test Site, Imperial Valley, California

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Romney, E.M.; Wallace, A.; Lunt, O.R.; Ackerman, T.A.; Kinnear, J.E.

    1977-09-01

    Baseline data reported herein for soil, vegetation, and small mammal components of the East Mesa desert ecosystem represent a collection period from October 1975 to September 1977. Inasmuch as changes in salt balance from geothermal brine sources are of potential impact upon the ecosystem, considerable analytical effort was given to the determination of element constituents in soil, plant, and animal samples. A preliminary synthesis of data was done to investigate the heterogeneity of element constituents among the sampled population and to summarize results. Findings indicate that periodic sampling and chemical analysis of vegetation around an industrialized geothermal energy source is probably the best way to monitor the surrounding ecosystem for assuring containment of any resource pollutants.

  9. Re-mining association mining results through visualization, data envelopment analysis, and decision trees

    OpenAIRE

    Ertek, Gürdal; Ertek, Gurdal; Tunç, Murat Mustafa; Tunc, Murat Mustafa

    2012-01-01

    Re-mining is a general framework which suggests the execution of additional data mining steps based on the results of an original data mining process. This study investigates the multi-faceted re-mining of association mining results, develops and presents a practical methodology, and shows the applicability of the developed methodology through real world data. The methodology suggests re-mining using data visualization, data envelopment analysis, and decision trees. Six hypotheses, regarding ...

  10. Demonstration of risk-based decision analysis in remedial alternative selection and design

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Evans, E.K.; Duffield, G.M. (Geraghty and Miller Modeling Group, Reston, VA (United States)); Massmann, J.W. (Washington Univ., Seattle, WA (United States)); Freeze, R.A. (Freeze (R.A.) Engineering, Inc., White Rock, BC (Canada)); Stephenson, D.E. (Westinghouse Savannah River Co., Aiken, SC (United States))

    1993-01-01

    This study demonstrates the use of risk-based decision analysis (Massmann and Freeze 1987a, 1987b) in the selection and design of an engineering alternative for groundwater remediation at a waste site at the Savannah River Site, a US Department of Energy facility in South Carolina. The investigation focuses on the remediation and closure of the H-Area Seepage Basins, an inactive disposal site that formerly received effluent water from a nearby production facility. A previous study by Duffield et al. (1992), which used risk-based decision analysis to screen a number of ground-water remediation alternatives under consideration for this site, indicated that the most attractive remedial option is ground-water extraction by wells coupled with surface water discharge of treated effluent. The aim of the present study is to demonstrate the iterative use of risk-based decision analysis throughout the design of a particular remedial alternative. In this study, we consider the interaction between two episodes of aquifer testing over a 6-year period and the refinement of a remedial extraction well system design. Using a three-dimensional ground-water flow model, this study employs (1) geostatistics and Monte Carlo techniques to simulate hydraulic conductivity as a stochastic process and (2) Bayesian updating and conditional simulation to investigate multiple phases of aquifer testing. In our evaluation of a remedial alternative, we compute probabilistic costs associated with the failure of an alternative to completely capture a simulated contaminant plume. The results of this study demonstrate the utility of risk-based decision analysis as a tool for improving the design of a remedial alternative through the course of phased data collection at a remedial site.

  11. Demonstration of risk-based decision analysis in remedial alternative selection and design

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Evans, E.K.; Duffield, G.M. [Geraghty and Miller Modeling Group, Reston, VA (United States); Massmann, J.W. [Washington Univ., Seattle, WA (United States); Freeze, R.A. [Freeze (R.A.) Engineering, Inc., White Rock, BC (Canada); Stephenson, D.E. [Westinghouse Savannah River Co., Aiken, SC (United States)

    1993-05-01

    This study demonstrates the use of risk-based decision analysis (Massmann and Freeze 1987a, 1987b) in the selection and design of an engineering alternative for groundwater remediation at a waste site at the Savannah River Site, a US Department of Energy facility in South Carolina. The investigation focuses on the remediation and closure of the H-Area Seepage Basins, an inactive disposal site that formerly received effluent water from a nearby production facility. A previous study by Duffield et al. (1992), which used risk-based decision analysis to screen a number of ground-water remediation alternatives under consideration for this site, indicated that the most attractive remedial option is ground-water extraction by wells coupled with surface water discharge of treated effluent. The aim of the present study is to demonstrate the iterative use of risk-based decision analysis throughout the design of a particular remedial alternative. In this study, we consider the interaction between two episodes of aquifer testing over a 6-year period and the refinement of a remedial extraction well system design. Using a three-dimensional ground-water flow model, this study employs (1) geostatistics and Monte Carlo techniques to simulate hydraulic conductivity as a stochastic process and (2) Bayesian updating and conditional simulation to investigate multiple phases of aquifer testing. In our evaluation of a remedial alternative, we compute probabilistic costs associated with the failure of an alternative to completely capture a simulated contaminant plume. The results of this study demonstrate the utility of risk-based decision analysis as a tool for improving the design of a remedial alternative through the course of phased data collection at a remedial site.

  12. Multiple criteria decision analysis with consideration to place-specific values in participatory forest planning

    OpenAIRE

    Nordström, Eva-Maria; Eriksson, Ljusk Ola; Karin, Öhman

    2011-01-01

    The combination of multiple criteria decision analysis (MCDA) and participatory planning is an approach that has been applied in complex planning situations where multiple criteria of very different natures are considered, and several stakeholders or social groups are involved. The spatial character of forest planning problems adds further to the complexity, because a large number of forest stands are to be assigned different treatments at different points in time. In addition, experience fro...

  13. INEEL Subsurface Disposal Area CERCLA-based Decision Analysis for Technology Screening and Remedial Alternative Evaluation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Parnell, G. S.; Kloeber, Jr. J.; Westphal, D; Fung, V.; Richardson, John Grant

    2000-03-01

    A CERCLA-based decision analysis methodology for alternative evaluation and technology screening has been developed for application at the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory WAG 7 OU13/14 Subsurface Disposal Area (SDA). Quantitative value functions derived from CERCLA balancing criteria in cooperation with State and Federal regulators are presented. A weighted criteria hierarchy is also summarized that relates individual value function numerical values to an overall score for a specific technology alternative.

  14. Flood Susceptibility Modeling: A Geo-spatial Technology Multi-criteria Decision Analysis Approach

    OpenAIRE

    Dano Umar Lawal; Abdul-Nasir Matori; Khamaruzaman Wan Yusof; Ahmad Mustafa Hashim; Mansir Aminu; Soheil Sabri; Abdul-Lateef Balogun; Imtiaz Ahmed Chandio

    2014-01-01

    Understanding the surface and subsurface condition can immensely enhance the availability of accurate flood susceptibility maps for effective management of flood catastrophe. In this study, remote sensing and Geographic Information System-based (GIS-based) Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) based on experts’ opinions has been adopted to carry out the preparedness phase of flood management. Establishing a link between the surface/subsurface conditions and flood occurrence is the major obj...

  15. Independent Component Analysis and Decision Trees for ECG Holter Recording De-Noising

    OpenAIRE

    Jakub Kuzilek; Vaclav Kremen; Filip Soucek; Lenka Lhotska

    2014-01-01

    We have developed a method focusing on ECG signal de-noising using Independent component analysis (ICA). This approach combines JADE source separation and binary decision tree for identification and subsequent ECG noise removal. In order to to test the efficiency of this method comparison to standard filtering a wavelet- based de-noising method was used. Freely data available at Physionet medical data storage were evaluated. Evaluation criteria was root mean square error (RMSE) between origin...

  16. ANALYSIS OF THE FINANCIAL POSITION OF THE COMPANY FOR TAKING THE APPROPRIATE MANAGEMENT DECISIONS

    OpenAIRE

    Andreeva D.

    2014-01-01

    The analysis of the financial position of the industrial company is a process of selecting, comparing and evaluating financial information. Therefore its first procedure is connected with the choice of information, from the whole corporate information flow, necessary for taking adequate management decisions. Comparing information aims to identify the most important proportions and relations, while the last procedure is connected with the evaluation and interpretation of these relations. This ...

  17. Portraying an employee performance management method based on multi-criteria decision analysis and visual techniques

    OpenAIRE

    Ishizaka, Alessio; Pereira, Vijay

    2015-01-01

    Performance appraisal is one of the most critical and indispensable human resource practices for organisations. However, it generates dissatisfaction among employees as it is often viewed as complex and ineffective. In this paper, we contribute by presenting a new performance management method that integrates multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) methods – the analytic network process (ANP) and PROMETHEE – with the visual techniques of the GAIA plane and the stacked bar chart. MCDA methods ...

  18. LIMITS OF SWOT ANALYSIS AND THEIR IMPACT ON DECISIONS IN EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS

    OpenAIRE

    Florin POPESCU; Cezar SCARLAT

    2015-01-01

    SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, threats) analysis is useful in the decision-making process – crucial to any organization manager and/or strategist. This study aims to add value to the existing literature on SWOT, indicating its use and limitations, showing the need to link SWOT to other strategic tools and methodologies. As the current environment is turbulent and unpredictable, and economic cycles no longer comply with traditional rules, the precaution has become extremely i...

  19. Boja kao čimbenik kakvoće janjećeg mesa

    OpenAIRE

    Kaić, dipl.ing.agr., Ana; Mioč, Prof.dr.sc. Boro; Kasap, dipl.ing.agr., Ante

    2012-01-01

    Sažetak Kakvoća janjećeg mesa je vrlo kompleksna i višeznačna osobina. Od brojnih čimbenika većina autora ističe važan, a neki od njih i presudan utjecaj boje na kakvoću mesa. Do danas su razvijene brojne metode instrumentalnog mjerenja boje mesa kojima se može mjeriti različit raspon spektra boja. U novije vrijeme, najčešće se koriste uređaji poput Minolte ili Labscana koji prema referentnoj metodi mjere boju mesa L*, a* i b* vrijednostima. Boja svježeg mesa uglavnom je rezultat ...

  20. Corrective Action Investigation Plan for Corrective Action Unit 99: Rainier Mesa/Shoshone Mountain, Nevada Test Site, Nevada with Errata and ROTC 1, Rev. No. 0

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McCord, John; Marutzky, Sam

    2004-12-01

    volcanic rocks that erupted from the caldera as well as from more distant sources. This has resulted in a layered volcanic stratigraphy composed of thick deposits of welded and nonwelded ash-flow tuff and lava flows. These deposits are proximal to the source caldera and are interstratified with the more distal facies of fallout tephra and bedded reworked tuff from more distant sources. In each area, a similar volcanic sequence was deposited upon Paleozoic carbonate and siliciclastic rocks that are disrupted by various thrust faults, normal faults, and strike-slip faults. In both Rainier Mesa (km) to the southwest, and Tippipah Spring, 4 km to the north, and the tunnel complex is dry. Particle-tracking simulations performed during the value of information analysis (VOIA) (SNJV, 2004b) indicate that most of the regional groundwater that underlies the test locations at Rainier Mesa and Shoshone Mountain eventually follows similar and parallel paths and ultimately discharges in Death Valley and the Amargosa Desert. Particle-tracking simulations conducted for the regional groundwater flow and risk assessment indicated that contamination from Rainier Mesa and Shoshone Mountain were unlikely to leave the NTS during the 1,000-year period of interest (DOE/NV, 1997a). It is anticipated that CAU-scale modeling will modify these results somewhat, but it is not expected to radically alter the outcome of these previous particle-tracking simulations within the 1,000-year period of interest. The Rainier Mesa/Shoshone Mountain CAIP describes the corrective action investigation (CAI) to be conducted at the Rainier Mesa/Shoshone Mountain CAU to evaluate the extent of contamination in groundwater due to the underground nuclear testing. The CAI will be conducted by the UGTA Project, which is part of the NNSA/NSO Environmental Restoration Project (ERP). The purpose and scope of the CAI are presented in this section, followed by a summary of the entire document.

  1. Comparing the sustainability of U.S. electricity options through multi-criteria decision analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sustainable energy decision-making requires comparing energy options across a wide range of economic, environmental, social and technical implications. However, such comparisons based on quantitative data are currently limited at the national level. This is the first comparison of 13 currently operational renewable and non-renewable options for new US electricity generation using multi-criteria decision analysis with quantitative input values (minimum, nominal, and maximum) for 8 sustainability criteria (levelized cost of energy, life cycle greenhouse gas and criteria air pollutant emissions, land and water use, accident-related fatalities, jobs, and annual capacity factor) and 10 representative decision-maker preference scenarios. Results across several preference scenarios indicate that biopower and geothermal (flash and binary) currently score highest in sustainability for the US. Other renewable energy technologies generally offer substantial sustainability improvements over fossil fuel or nuclear technologies, and nuclear is preferable to fossil fuels in most scenarios. The relatively low ranking of natural gas combined cycle in most preference scenarios should encourage caution in adopting NGCC as a “bridge” to renewables. Although NGCC ranks high under economic and technical preference scenarios, renewables actually rank higher in both scenarios (hydro – economic; geothermal and biopower – technical). - Highlights: • Compares 13 electricity options across 8 sustainability criteria. • Considers technical, economic, environmental, and social sustainability criteria. • Examines tradeoffs under 10 representative decision-maker preferences. • Includes policy implications for developing new electricity generation capacity in the US. • Biopower and geothermal consistently rank high across several preference scenarios

  2. Trustworthy patient decision aids: a qualitative analysis addressing the risk of competing interests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elwyn, Glyn; Dannenberg, Michelle; Blaine, Arianna; Poddar, Urbashi; Durand, Marie-Anne

    2016-01-01

    Objective Our aim in this study was to examine the competing interest policies and procedures of organisations who develop and maintain patient decision aids. Design Descriptive and thematic analysis of data collected from a cross-sectional survey of patient decision aid developer's competing interest policies and disclosure forms. Results We contacted 25 organisations likely to meet the inclusion criteria. 12 eligible organisations provided data. 11 organisations did not reply and 2 declined to participate. Most patient decision aid developers recognise the need to consider the issue of competing interests. Assessment processes vary widely and, for the most part, are insufficiently robust to minimise the risk of competing interests. Only half of the 12 organisations had competing interest policies. Some considered disclosure to be sufficient, while others imposed differing levels of exclusion. Conclusions Patient decision aid developers do not have a consistent approach to managing competing interests. Some have developed policies and procedures, while others pay no attention to the issue. As is the case for clinical practice guidelines, increasing attention will need to be given to how the competing interests of contributors of evidence-based publications may influence materials, especially if they are designed for patient use. PMID:27612542

  3. Decision trees are PAC-learnable from most product distributions: a smoothed analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Kalai, Adam Tauman

    2008-01-01

    We consider the problem of PAC-learning decision trees, i.e., learning a decision tree over the n-dimensional hypercube from independent random labeled examples. Despite significant effort, no polynomial-time algorithm is known for learning polynomial-sized decision trees (even trees of any super-constant size), even when examples are assumed to be drawn from the uniform distribution on {0,1}^n. We give an algorithm that learns arbitrary polynomial-sized decision trees for {\\em most product distributions}. In particular, consider a random product distribution where the bias of each bit is chosen independently and uniformly from, say, [.49,.51]. Then with high probability over the parameters of the product distribution and the random examples drawn from it, the algorithm will learn any tree. More generally, in the spirit of smoothed analysis, we consider an arbitrary product distribution whose parameters are specified only up to a [-c,c] accuracy (perturbation), for an arbitrarily small positive constant c.

  4. Multi-criteria decision analysis for waste management in Saharawi refugee camps

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The aim of this paper is to compare different waste management solutions in Saharawi refugee camps (Algeria) and to test the feasibility of a decision-making method developed to be applied in particular conditions in which environmental and social aspects must be considered. It is based on multi criteria analysis, and in particular on the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), a mathematical technique for multi-criteria decision making (Saaty, T.L., 1980. The Analytic Hierarchy Process. McGraw-Hill, New York, USA; Saaty, T.L., 1990. How to Make a Decision: The Analytic Hierarchy Process. European Journal of Operational Research; Saaty, T.L., 1994. Decision Making for Leaders: The Analytic Hierarchy Process in a Complex World. RWS Publications, Pittsburgh, PA), and on participatory approach, focusing on local community's concerns. The research compares four different waste collection and management alternatives: waste collection by using three tipper trucks, disposal and burning in an open area; waste collection by using seven dumpers and disposal in a landfill; waste collection by using seven dumpers and three tipper trucks and disposal in a landfill; waste collection by using three tipper trucks and disposal in a landfill. The results show that the second and the third solutions provide better scenarios for waste management. Furthermore, the discussion of the results points out the multidisciplinarity of the approach, and the equilibrium between social, environmental and technical impacts. This is a very important aspect in a humanitarian and environmental project, confirming the appropriateness of the chosen method.

  5. Systems Analysis - a new paradigm and decision support tools for the water framework directive

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bruen, M.

    2008-05-01

    In the early days of Systems Analysis the focus was on providing tools for optimisation, modelling and simulation for use by experts. Now there is a recognition of the need to develop and disseminate tools to assist in making decisions, negotiating compromises and communicating preferences that can easily be used by stakeholders without the need for specialist training. The Water Framework Directive (WFD) requires public participation and thus provides a strong incentive for progress in this direction. This paper places the new paradigm in the context of the classical one and discusses some of the new approaches which can be used in the implementation of the WFD. These include multi-criteria decision support methods suitable for environmental problems, adaptive management, cognitive mapping, social learning and cooperative design and group decision-making. Concordance methods (such as ELECTRE) and the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) are identified as multi-criteria methods that can be readily integrated into Decision Support Systems (DSS) that deal with complex environmental issues with very many criteria, some of which are qualitative. The expanding use of the new paradigm provides an opportunity to observe and learn from the interaction of stakeholders with the new technology and to assess its effectiveness.

  6. Systems Analysis – a new paradigm and decision support tools for the water framework directive

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Bruen

    2008-05-01

    Full Text Available In the early days of Systems Analysis the focus was on providing tools for optimisation, modelling and simulation for use by experts. Now there is a recognition of the need to develop and disseminate tools to assist in making decisions, negotiating compromises and communicating preferences that can easily be used by stakeholders without the need for specialist training. The Water Framework Directive (WFD requires public participation and thus provides a strong incentive for progress in this direction. This paper places the new paradigm in the context of the classical one and discusses some of the new approaches which can be used in the implementation of the WFD. These include multi-criteria decision support methods suitable for environmental problems, adaptive management, cognitive mapping, social learning and cooperative design and group decision-making. Concordance methods (such as ELECTRE and the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP are identified as multi-criteria methods that can be readily integrated into Decision Support Systems (DSS that deal with complex environmental issues with very many criteria, some of which are qualitative. The expanding use of the new paradigm provides an opportunity to observe and learn from the interaction of stakeholders with the new technology and to assess its effectiveness.

  7. Celebrity Health Announcements and Online Health Information Seeking: An Analysis of Angelina Jolie's Preventative Health Decision.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dean, Marleah

    2016-01-01

    On May 14, 2013, Angelina Jolie disclosed she carries BRCA1, which means she has an 87% risk of developing breast cancer during her lifetime. Jolie decided to undergo a preventative bilateral mastectomy (PBM), reducing her risk to 5%. The purpose of this study was to analyze the type of information individuals are exposed to when using the Internet to search health information regarding Jolie's decision. Qualitative content analysis revealed four main themes--information about genetics, information about a PBM, information about health care, and information about Jolie's gender identity. Broadly, the identified websites mention Jolie's high risk for developing cancer due to the genetic mutation BRCA1, describe a PBM occasionally noting reasons why she had this surgery and providing alternatives to the surgery, discuss issues related to health care services, costs, and insurances about Jolie's health decision, and portray Jolie as a sexual icon, a partner to Brad Pitt, a mother of six children, and an inspirational humanitarian. The websites also depict Jolie's health decision in positive, negative, and/or both ways. Discussion centers on how this actress' health decision impacts the public. PMID:26574936

  8. Multi-criteria decision analysis for waste management in Saharawi refugee camps.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garfì, M; Tondelli, S; Bonoli, A

    2009-10-01

    The aim of this paper is to compare different waste management solutions in Saharawi refugee camps (Algeria) and to test the feasibility of a decision-making method developed to be applied in particular conditions in which environmental and social aspects must be considered. It is based on multi criteria analysis, and in particular on the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), a mathematical technique for multi-criteria decision making (Saaty, T.L., 1980. The Analytic Hierarchy Process. McGraw-Hill, New York, USA; Saaty, T.L., 1990. How to Make a Decision: The Analytic Hierarchy Process. European Journal of Operational Research; Saaty, T.L., 1994. Decision Making for Leaders: The Analytic Hierarchy Process in a Complex World. RWS Publications, Pittsburgh, PA), and on participatory approach, focusing on local community's concerns. The research compares four different waste collection and management alternatives: waste collection by using three tipper trucks, disposal and burning in an open area; waste collection by using seven dumpers and disposal in a landfill; waste collection by using seven dumpers and three tipper trucks and disposal in a landfill; waste collection by using three tipper trucks and disposal in a landfill. The results show that the second and the third solutions provide better scenarios for waste management. Furthermore, the discussion of the results points out the multidisciplinarity of the approach, and the equilibrium between social, environmental and technical impacts. This is a very important aspect in a humanitarian and environmental project, confirming the appropriateness of the chosen method.

  9. Rural tourism spatial distribution based on multi-criteria decision analysis and GIS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Hongxian; Yang, Qingsheng

    2008-10-01

    To study spatial distribution of rural tourism can provide scientific decision basis for developing rural economics. Traditional ways of tourism spatial distribution have some limitations in quantifying priority locations of tourism development on small units. They can only produce the overall tourism distribution locations and whether locations are suitable to tourism development simply while the tourism develop ranking with different decision objectives should be considered. This paper presents a way to find ranking of location of rural tourism development in spatial by integrating multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) and geography information system (GIS). In order to develop country economics with inconvenient transportation, undeveloped economy and better tourism resource, these locations should be firstly develop rural tourism. Based on this objective, the tourism develop priority utility of each town is calculated with MCDA and GIS. Towns which should be first develop rural tourism can be selected with higher tourism develop priority utility. The method is used to find ranking of location of rural tourism in Ningbo City successfully. The result shows that MCDA is an effective way for distribution rural tourism in spatial based on special decision objectives and rural tourism can promote economic development.

  10. East Mesa geothermal pump test facility (EMPTF). Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Olander, R.G.; Roberts, G.K.

    1984-11-28

    The design, fabrication and installation of a geothermal pump test facility (EMPFT) at the DOE geothermal site at East Mesa, California which is capable of testing 70 to 750 horsepower downwell pumps in a controlled geothermal environment were completed. The facility consists of a skid-mounted brine control module, a 160 foot below test well section, a hydraulic turbine for power recovery, a gantry-mounted hoist for pump handling and a 3-phase, 480 VAC, 1200 amp power supply to handle pump electric requirements. Geothermal brine is supplied to the EMPTF from one of the facility wells at East Mesa. The EMPTF is designed with a great amount of flexibility. The 20-inch diameter test well can accommodate a wide variety of pumps. The controls are interactive and can be adjusted to obtain a full complement of pump operation data, or set to maintain constant conditions to allow long-term testing with a minimum of operator support. The hydraulic turbine allows the EMPTF user to recover approximately 46% of the input pump power to help defray the operating cost of the unit. The hoist is provided for material handling and pump servicing and reduces the equipment that the user must supply for pump installation, inspection and removal.

  11. East Mesa geothermal pump test facility (EMPTF). Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Olander, R.G.; Roberts, G.K.

    1984-11-28

    Barber-Nichols has completed the design, fabrication and installation of a geothermal pump test facility at the DOE geothermal site at East Mesa, California which is capable of testing 70 to 750 horsepower downwell pumps in a controlled geothermal environment. The facility consists of a skid-mounted brine control module, a 160 foot below ground test well section, a hydraulic turbine for power recovery, a gantry-mounted hoist for pump handling and a 3-phase, 480 VAC, 1200 amp power supply to handle pump electric requirements. Geothermal brine is supplied to the EMPTF from one of the facility wells at East Mesa. The EMPTF is designed with a great amount of flexibility to attract the largest number of potential users. The 20-inch diameter test well can accommodate a wide variety of pumps. The controls are interactive and can be adjusted to obtain a full complement of pump operation data, or set to maintain constant conditions to allow long-term testing with a minimum of operator support. The hydraulic turbine allows the EMPTF user to recover approximately 46% of the input pump power to help defray the operating cost of the unit. The hoist is provided for material handling and pump servicing and reduces the equipment that the user must supply for pump installation, inspection and removal.

  12. A submarine fan in the Mesa Central, Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silva-Romo, G.; Arellano-Gil, J.; Mendoza-Rosales, C.; Nieto-Obregón, J.

    2000-10-01

    The contact between the Guerrero and Sierra Madre tectonostratigraphic terranes has been proposed to lie in the Mesa Central, east of the city of Zacatecas. Marine Triassic units have been assigned to the Guerrero Terrane. It is here proposed that this contact occurs to the west of the city of Zacatecas and the Triassic marine sequence assigned to the Sierra Madre Terrane. We analyzed the stratigraphic record and structural features of pre-Late Jurassic sequences at four localities in the Mesa Central. They contain a marine turbiditic Triassic unit, which includes La Bellena, Taray, and Zacatecas Formations, and a continental unit of probable Middle Jurassic age. Triassic sandstones were derived from a cratonic area, without the influence of arc volcanism. The sequences were affected by two phases of deformation. The Triassic formations are unconformably overlain by a continental volcano-sedimentary sequence that contains fragments of sandstones derived from the underlying unit. Sedimentologic characteristics of the Triassic unit fit a submarine fan model. The submarine fan developed at the continental margin of Pangaea during Triassic times. Turbidite associations in the San Rafael Area indicate a middle fan depositional environment, while in the Real de Catorce Area, they correspond to the distal part (basin plain facies). At La Ballena and Zacatecas the turbidite associations occur in the middle part and perhaps the external part of the fan.

  13. MTF comparisons between mesa and planar focal plane detector structures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perley, Mitchell; Wehner, Justin; Buell, Dave; Micali, Jason; McCorkle, Joe; Rehfield, Mark; Williams, Dave; Dixon, Andrew; Malone, Neil

    2013-09-01

    Raytheon Vision Systems (RVS) has developed scanning, high-speed (ADC), mid-wave infrared (MWIR 3-5mm) focal plane arrays (FPA) with excellent modulation transfer function (MTF) performance. Using secondary ion mass spectrometry (SIMS) data and detailed models of the mesa geometry, RVS modeled the predicted detector MTF performance of detectors. These detectors have a mesa structure and geometry for improved MTF performance compared to planar HgCdTe and InSb detector structures and other similar detector structures such as nBn. The modeled data is compared to measured MTF data obtained from edge spread measurements and shows good agreement, Figure 1. The measured data was obtained using a custom advanced test set with 1µm precision alignment and automatic data acquisition for report generation in less than five minutes per FPA. The measured MTF values of 83 unique parts, Figure 2, had a standard deviation of 0.0094 and a mean absolute deviation of 0.0066 at half Nyquist frequency, showing excellent process repeatability and a design that supports high MTF with good repeatability.

  14. Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis for Health Care Decision Making--Emerging Good Practices: Report 2 of the ISPOR MCDA Emerging Good Practices Task Force.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marsh, Kevin; IJzerman, Maarten; Thokala, Praveen; Baltussen, Rob; Boysen, Meindert; Kaló, Zoltán; Lönngren, Thomas; Mussen, Filip; Peacock, Stuart; Watkins, John; Devlin, Nancy

    2016-01-01

    Health care decisions are complex and involve confronting trade-offs between multiple, often conflicting objectives. Using structured, explicit approaches to decisions involving multiple criteria can improve the quality of decision making. A set of techniques, known under the collective heading, multiple criteria decision analysis (MCDA), are useful for this purpose. In 2014, ISPOR established an Emerging Good Practices Task Force. The task force's first report defined MCDA, provided examples of its use in health care, described the key steps, and provided an overview of the principal methods of MCDA. This second task force report provides emerging good-practice guidance on the implementation of MCDA to support health care decisions. The report includes: a checklist to support the design, implementation and review of an MCDA; guidance to support the implementation of the checklist; the order in which the steps should be implemented; illustrates how to incorporate budget constraints into an MCDA; provides an overview of the skills and resources, including available software, required to implement MCDA; and future research directions.

  15. Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis for Health Care Decision Making--Emerging Good Practices: Report 2 of the ISPOR MCDA Emerging Good Practices Task Force.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marsh, Kevin; IJzerman, Maarten; Thokala, Praveen; Baltussen, Rob; Boysen, Meindert; Kaló, Zoltán; Lönngren, Thomas; Mussen, Filip; Peacock, Stuart; Watkins, John; Devlin, Nancy

    2016-01-01

    Health care decisions are complex and involve confronting trade-offs between multiple, often conflicting objectives. Using structured, explicit approaches to decisions involving multiple criteria can improve the quality of decision making. A set of techniques, known under the collective heading, multiple criteria decision analysis (MCDA), are useful for this purpose. In 2014, ISPOR established an Emerging Good Practices Task Force. The task force's first report defined MCDA, provided examples of its use in health care, described the key steps, and provided an overview of the principal methods of MCDA. This second task force report provides emerging good-practice guidance on the implementation of MCDA to support health care decisions. The report includes: a checklist to support the design, implementation and review of an MCDA; guidance to support the implementation of the checklist; the order in which the steps should be implemented; illustrates how to incorporate budget constraints into an MCDA; provides an overview of the skills and resources, including available software, required to implement MCDA; and future research directions. PMID:27021745

  16. Improvement and analysis of ID3 algorithm in decision-making tree

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Xiao-Lan; Long, Zhen; Liao, Wen-Qi

    2015-12-01

    For the cooperative system under development, it needs to use the spatial analysis and relative technology concerning data mining in order to carry out the detection of the subject conflict and redundancy, while the ID3 algorithm is an important data mining. Due to the traditional ID3 algorithm in the decision-making tree towards the log part is rather complicated, this paper obtained a new computational formula of information gain through the optimization of algorithm of the log part. During the experiment contrast and theoretical analysis, it is found that IID3 (Improved ID3 Algorithm) algorithm owns higher calculation efficiency and accuracy and thus worth popularizing.

  17. Selecting essential information for biosurveillance--a multi-criteria decision analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Generous, Nicholas; Margevicius, Kristen J; Taylor-McCabe, Kirsten J; Brown, Mac; Daniel, W Brent; Castro, Lauren; Hengartner, Andrea; Deshpande, Alina

    2014-01-01

    The National Strategy for Biosurveillance defines biosurveillance as "the process of gathering, integrating, interpreting, and communicating essential information related to all-hazards threats or disease activity affecting human, animal, or plant health to achieve early detection and warning, contribute to overall situational awareness of the health aspects of an incident, and to enable better decision-making at all levels." However, the strategy does not specify how "essential information" is to be identified and integrated into the current biosurveillance enterprise, or what the metrics qualify information as being "essential". The question of data stream identification and selection requires a structured methodology that can systematically evaluate the tradeoffs between the many criteria that need to be taken in account. Multi-Attribute Utility Theory, a type of multi-criteria decision analysis, can provide a well-defined, structured approach that can offer solutions to this problem. While the use of Multi-Attribute Utility Theoryas a practical method to apply formal scientific decision theoretical approaches to complex, multi-criteria problems has been demonstrated in a variety of fields, this method has never been applied to decision support in biosurveillance.We have developed a formalized decision support analytic framework that can facilitate identification of "essential information" for use in biosurveillance systems or processes and we offer this framework to the global BSV community as a tool for optimizing the BSV enterprise. To demonstrate utility, we applied the framework to the problem of evaluating data streams for use in an integrated global infectious disease surveillance system.

  18. Decision analysis to support development of the Glen Canyon Dam long-term experimental and management plan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Runge, Michael C.; LaGory, Kirk E.; Russell, Kendra; Balsom, Janet R.; Butler, R. Alan; Coggins,, Lewis G.; Grantz, Katrina A.; Hayse, John; Hlohowskyj, Ihor; Korman, Josh; May, James E.; O'Rourke, Daniel J.; Poch, Leslie A.; Prairie, James R.; VanKuiken, Jack C.; Van Lonkhuyzen, Robert A.; Varyu, David R.; Verhaaren, Bruce T.; Veselka, Thomas D.; Williams, Nicholas T.; Wuthrich, Kelsey K.; Yackulic, Charles B.; Billerbeck, Robert P.; Knowles, Glen W.

    2016-01-07

    The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Bureau of Reclamation, National Park Service, and Argonne National Laboratory, completed a decision analysis to use in the evaluation of alternatives in the Environmental Impact Statement concerning the long-term management of water releases from Glen Canyon Dam and associated management activities. Two primary decision analysis methods, multicriteria decision analysis and the expected value of information, were used to evaluate the alternative strategies against the resource goals and to evaluate the influence of uncertainty.

  19. A decision-making framework for protecting process plants from flooding based on fault tree analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The protection of process plants from external events is mandatory in the Seveso Directive. Among these events figures the possibility of inundation of a plant, which may cause a hazard by disabling technical components and obviating operator interventions. A methodological framework for dealing with hazards from potential flooding events is presented. It combines an extension of the fault tree method with generic properties of flooding events in rivers and of dikes, which should be adapted to site-specific characteristics in a concrete case. Thus, a rational basis for deciding whether upgrading is required or not and which of the components should be upgraded is provided. Both the deterministic and the probabilistic approaches are compared. Preference is given to the probabilistic one. The conclusions drawn naturally depend on the scope and detail of the model calculations and the decision criterion adopted. The latter has to be supplied from outside the analysis, e.g. by the analyst himself, the plant operator or the competent authority. It turns out that decision-making is only viable if the boundary conditions for both the procedure of analysis and the decision criterion are clear.

  20. On the Nirex MADA [Multi-Attribute Decision Analysis]. Proof of evidence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Proof of Evidence is given by an expert witness on behalf of Greenpeace Ltd as part of their submission to a Planning Inquiry in 1995 hearing the application of UK Nirex Ltd for permission to construct an underground Rock Characterisation Facility (RCF) at a site near Sellafield. The RCF is part of an investigation by Nirex into a suitable site for the disposal of radioactive waste. The evidence concerns the use by Nirex of a technique known as Multi-Attribute Decision Analysis (MADA) in support of their decision to concentrate their studies on the Sellafield site. Potentially, MADA offers a highly effective methodology for making difficult political decisions involving a mixture of technical, social and economic considerations. Its proper use, however, relies on: drawing an explicit distinction between relatively technical ''performance scores'' and wholly subjective ''importance weightings''; a clearly expressed and agreed scope for the analysis; the inclusion of a wide range of perspectives; systematic and comprehensive sensitivity testing of the implications of varying data, assumptions and value judgements; optimising the choice of option under each perspective; presenting explicit data, assumptions, transparent methodologies and accessible procedures for critical evaluation and public peer review. It is concluded that Nirex's MADA seems to be seriously deficient in relation to many of these principles. (9 references). (UK)

  1. Innovation and decision-making process in reverse logistics: a bibliometric analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fernando Antonio Guimarães Tenório

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available This work aimed to make a bibliometric analysis on empirical studies that focus on the reverse logistics process. Papers published in two major events of management and a production engineering were collected during the years 2007-2012. To perform the analysis assumptions were adopted as the concepts of innovation and decision-making. 43 articles were analyzed and it was found that, in most cases, organizations choose to deploy reverse logistics as a means to solving problems related to environmental laws and regulations and after its implementation, the decision-making process related to the network of companies that perform reverse logistics remains restricted to the adopter company, thus becoming a centralized decision-making process. It was also found that reverse logistics is, in most cases, an innovation in the supply chain, it provides a new way to manage and operate the return and recycling of waste products and generating competitive advantages in the form of increased net income and better picture of the organization to its partners and customers.

  2. Integrating clinicians, knowledge and data: expert-based cooperative analysis in healthcare decision support

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    García-Alonso Carlos

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Decision support in health systems is a highly difficult task, due to the inherent complexity of the process and structures involved. Method This paper introduces a new hybrid methodology Expert-based Cooperative Analysis (EbCA, which incorporates explicit prior expert knowledge in data analysis methods, and elicits implicit or tacit expert knowledge (IK to improve decision support in healthcare systems. EbCA has been applied to two different case studies, showing its usability and versatility: 1 Bench-marking of small mental health areas based on technical efficiency estimated by EbCA-Data Envelopment Analysis (EbCA-DEA, and 2 Case-mix of schizophrenia based on functional dependency using Clustering Based on Rules (ClBR. In both cases comparisons towards classical procedures using qualitative explicit prior knowledge were made. Bayesian predictive validity measures were used for comparison with expert panels results. Overall agreement was tested by Intraclass Correlation Coefficient in case "1" and kappa in both cases. Results EbCA is a new methodology composed by 6 steps:. 1 Data collection and data preparation; 2 acquisition of "Prior Expert Knowledge" (PEK and design of the "Prior Knowledge Base" (PKB; 3 PKB-guided analysis; 4 support-interpretation tools to evaluate results and detect inconsistencies (here Implicit Knowledg -IK- might be elicited; 5 incorporation of elicited IK in PKB and repeat till a satisfactory solution; 6 post-processing results for decision support. EbCA has been useful for incorporating PEK in two different analysis methods (DEA and Clustering, applied respectively to assess technical efficiency of small mental health areas and for case-mix of schizophrenia based on functional dependency. Differences in results obtained with classical approaches were mainly related to the IK which could be elicited by using EbCA and had major implications for the decision making in both cases. Discussion This

  3. Low-Level Waste Vitrification Plant Project contracting strategy decision analysis report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ten basic contracting strategies were developed after a review of past strategies that had been used at the Hanford Site, other US Department of Energy (DOE) sites, other US government agencies, and in the private sector. As applicable to the Low-Level Waste Vitrification Plant (LLWVP) Project, each strategy was described and depicted in a schedule format to assess compatibility with the Hanford Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order, al so known as the Tri-Party Agreement (Ecology et al. 1994) milestones, key decision points, and other project requirements. The-pro and con aspects of each strategy also were tabulated. Using this information as a basis, the LLWVP Project team members, along with representatives of Tank Waste Remediation System (TWRS) Engineering, TWRS Programs, and Procurement Materials Management, formed a Westinghouse Hanford Company (WHC) evaluation team to select the best strategy. Kepner-Tregoe decision analysis techniques were used in facilitated meetings to arrive at the best balanced choice

  4. A multi-criteria decision analysis assessment of waste paper management options.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanan, Deirdre; Burnley, Stephen; Cooke, David

    2013-03-01

    The use of Multi-criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) was investigated in an exercise using a panel of local residents and stakeholders to assess the options for managing waste paper on the Isle of Wight. Seven recycling, recovery and disposal options were considered by the panel who evaluated each option against seven environmental, financial and social criteria. The panel preferred options where the waste was managed on the island with gasification and recycling achieving the highest scores. Exporting the waste to the English mainland for incineration or landfill proved to be the least preferred options. This research has demonstrated that MCDA is an effective way of involving community groups in waste management decision making.

  5. Geospatial analysis and decision support for health services planning in Uganda

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shuaib Lwasa

    2007-11-01

    Full Text Available As the utilization of geospatial techniques continues to surge, spatial information has become an integral part of decision-making. In Uganda, the use of geospatial techniques in provision of health services planning has gained momentum after a comprehensive survey of health units and the development of a national health services geodatabase. Planning for the provision of health infrastructure services requires quality information to rationalize the location, and allocation, of services in relation to the population. Health service planners are always faced with a question of where to locate services in relation to need and how such distribution would be affected by resources to meet the requirements of the population. Because resources are scarce, prioritization is indispensable and thorough analysis becomes important in the planning process. This paper analyzes access to health facilities using the population gridding approach, coupled with location of health infrastructure facilities for decision support in health services planning.

  6. Path Analysis Examining Self-Efficacy and Decision-Making Performance on a Simulated Baseball Task

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hepler, Teri J.; Feltz, Deborah L.

    2012-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to examine the relationship between decision-making self-efficacy and decision-making performance in sport. Undergraduate students (N = 78) performed 10 trials of a decision-making task in baseball. Self-efficacy was measured before performing each trial. Decision-making performance was assessed by decision speed and…

  7. Harnessing ecosystem models and multi-criteria decision analysis for the support of forest management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolfslehner, Bernhard; Seidl, Rupert

    2010-12-01

    The decision-making environment in forest management (FM) has changed drastically during the last decades. Forest management planning is facing increasing complexity due to a widening portfolio of forest goods and services, a societal demand for a rational, transparent decision process and rising uncertainties concerning future environmental conditions (e.g., climate change). Methodological responses to these challenges include an intensified use of ecosystem models to provide an enriched, quantitative information base for FM planning. Furthermore, multi-criteria methods are increasingly used to amalgamate information, preferences, expert judgments and value expressions, in support of the participatory and communicative dimensions of modern forestry. Although the potential of combining these two approaches has been demonstrated in a number of studies, methodological aspects in interfacing forest ecosystem models (FEM) and multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) are scarcely addressed explicitly. In this contribution we review the state of the art in FEM and MCDA in the context of FM planning and highlight some of the crucial issues when combining ecosystem and preference modeling. We discuss issues and requirements in selecting approaches suitable for supporting FM planning problems from the growing body of FEM and MCDA concepts. We furthermore identify two major challenges in a harmonized application of FEM-MCDA: (i) the design and implementation of an indicator-based analysis framework capturing ecological and social aspects and their interactions relevant for the decision process, and (ii) holistic information management that supports consistent use of different information sources, provides meta-information as well as information on uncertainties throughout the planning process.

  8. Harnessing Ecosystem Models and Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis for the Support of Forest Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolfslehner, Bernhard; Seidl, Rupert

    2010-12-01

    The decision-making environment in forest management (FM) has changed drastically during the last decades. Forest management planning is facing increasing complexity due to a widening portfolio of forest goods and services, a societal demand for a rational, transparent decision process and rising uncertainties concerning future environmental conditions (e.g., climate change). Methodological responses to these challenges include an intensified use of ecosystem models to provide an enriched, quantitative information base for FM planning. Furthermore, multi-criteria methods are increasingly used to amalgamate information, preferences, expert judgments and value expressions, in support of the participatory and communicative dimensions of modern forestry. Although the potential of combining these two approaches has been demonstrated in a number of studies, methodological aspects in interfacing forest ecosystem models (FEM) and multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) are scarcely addressed explicitly. In this contribution we review the state of the art in FEM and MCDA in the context of FM planning and highlight some of the crucial issues when combining ecosystem and preference modeling. We discuss issues and requirements in selecting approaches suitable for supporting FM planning problems from the growing body of FEM and MCDA concepts. We furthermore identify two major challenges in a harmonized application of FEM-MCDA: (i) the design and implementation of an indicator-based analysis framework capturing ecological and social aspects and their interactions relevant for the decision process, and (ii) holistic information management that supports consistent use of different information sources, provides meta-information as well as information on uncertainties throughout the planning process.

  9. Performance Evaluation of Discriminant Analysis and Decision Tree, for Weed Classification of Potato Fields

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Farshad Vesali

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available In present study we tried to recognizing weeds in potato fields to effective use from herbicides. As we know potato is one of the crops which is cultivated vastly all over the world and it is a major world food crop that is consumed by over one billion people world over, but it is threated by weed invade, because of row cropping system applied in potato tillage. Machine vision is used in this research for effective application of herbicides in field. About 300 color images from 3 potato farms of Qorveh city and 2 farms of Urmia University-Iran, was acquired. Images were acquired in different illumination condition from morning to evening in sunny and cloudy days. Because of overlap and shading of plants in farm condition it is hard to use morphologic parameters. In method used for classifying weeds and potato plants, primary color components of each plant were extracted and the relation between them was estimated for determining discriminant function and classifying plants using discrimination analysis. In addition the decision tree method was used to compare results with discriminant analysis. Three different classifications were applied: first, Classification was applied to discriminate potato plant from all other weeds (two groups, the rate of correct classification was 76.67% for discriminant analysis and 83.82% for decision tree; second classification was applied to discriminate potato plant from separate groups of each weed (6 groups, the rate of correct classification was 87%. And the third, Classification of potato plant versus weed species one by one. As the weeds were different, the results of classification were different in this composition. The decision tree in all conditions showed the better result than discriminant analysis.

  10. Risk Analysis and Decision-Making Software Package (1997 Version) User Manual

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chung, F.T.H.

    1999-02-11

    This manual provides instructions for using the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) risk analysis and decision making software (1997 version) developed at BDM Petroleum Technologies by BDM-Oklahoma, Inc. for DOE, under contract No. DE-AC22-94PC91OO8. This software provides petroleum producers with a simple, handy tool for exploration and production risk analysis and decision-making. It collects useful risk analysis tools in one package so that users do not have to use several programs separately. The software is simple to use, but still provides many functions. The 1997 version of the software package includes the following tools: (1) Investment risk (Gambler's ruin) analysis; (2) Monte Carlo simulation; (3) Best fit for distribution functions; (4) Sample and rank correlation; (5) Enhanced oil recovery method screening; and (6) artificial neural network. This software package is subject to change. Suggestions and comments from users are welcome and will be considered for future modifications and enhancements of the software. Please check the opening screen of the software for the current contact information. In the future, more tools will be added to this software package. This manual includes instructions on how to use the software but does not attempt to fully explain the theory and algorithms used to create it.

  11. Nature and extent of lava-flow aquifers beneath Pahute Mesa, Nevada Test Site

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Prothro, L.B.; Drellack, S.L. Jr.

    1997-09-01

    Work is currently underway within the Underground Test Area subproject of the US Department of Energy/Nevada Operations Office Environmental Restoration Program to develop corrective action plans in support of the overall corrective action strategy for the Nevada Test Site as established in the Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order (FFACO, 1996). A closure plan is currently being developed for Pahute Mesa, which has been identified in the FFACO as consisting of the Western and Central Pahute Mesa Corrective Action Units. Part of this effort requires that hydrogeologic data be compiled for inclusion in a regional model that will be used to predict a contaminant boundary for these Corrective Action Units. Hydrogeologic maps have been prepared for use in the model to define the nature and extent of aquifers and confining units that might influence the flow of contaminated groundwater from underground nuclear tests conducted at Pahute Mesa. Much of the groundwater flow beneath Pahute Mesa occurs within lava-flow aquifers. An understanding of the distribution and hydraulic character of these important hydrogeologic units is necessary to accurately model groundwater flow beneath Pahute Mesa. This report summarizes the results of a study by Bechtel Nevada geologists to better define the hydrogeology of lava-flow aquifers at Pahute Mesa. The purpose of this study was twofold: (1) aid in the development of the hydrostratigraphic framework for Pahute Mesa, and (2) provide information on the distribution and hydraulic character of lava-flow aquifers beneath Pahute Mesa for more accurate computer modeling of the Western and Central Pahute Mesa Corrective Action Units.

  12. Enhanced Adaptive Management: Integrating Decision Analysis, Scenario Analysis and Environmental Modeling for the Everglades

    OpenAIRE

    Convertino, Matteo; Christy M. Foran; Jeffrey M. Keisler; Scarlett, Lynn; LoSchiavo, Andy; Gregory A. Kiker; Linkov, Igor

    2013-01-01

    We propose to enhance existing adaptive management efforts with a decision-analytical approach that can guide the initial selection of robust restoration alternative plans and inform the need to adjust these alternatives in the course of action based on continuously acquired monitoring information and changing stakeholder values. We demonstrate an application of enhanced adaptive management for a wetland restoration case study inspired by the Florida Everglades restoration effort. We find tha...

  13. Medical decision analysis for first-line therapy of chronic myeloid leukemia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rochau, Ursula; Sroczynski, Gaby; Wolf, Dominik; Schmidt, Stefan; Conrads-Frank, Annette; Jahn, Beate; Saverno, Kim; Brixner, Diana; Radich, Jerald; Gastl, Guenther; Siebert, Uwe

    2014-08-01

    Several tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKIs) are approved for the treatment of chronic myeloid leukemia (CML). Our goal was to develop a clinical decision-analytic model for evaluation of the long-term effectiveness of different therapy regimens. We developed a Markov cohort model with a lifelong time horizon for first-line treatment with imatinib, dasatinib or nilotinib. Seven strategies including combinations of TKIs, chemotherapy and stem cell transplant were evaluated. The model was parameterized using published trial data, the Austrian CML registry and practice patterns estimated by experts. Health outcomes evaluated were life-years (LYs) and quality-adjusted LYs (QALYs). Based on our decision analysis, dasatinib following nilotinib failure was the most effective treatment in terms of LYs (19.8 LYs) and QALYs (16.1 QALYs). Sensitivity analyses showed that the ranking of strategies was mostly influenced by the duration of first- and second-line therapies. Our results may support decision-making regarding the sequential application of TKIs. PMID:24160847

  14. Transdisciplinary Evaluation of Energy Scenarios for a German Village Using Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter Schmuck

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA can assist local decision processes towards selecting renewable energy systems as it is able to manage qualitative data and offers opportunities to integrate knowledge from local stakeholders. However, little experience is available regarding practical applications of MCDA in real decision processes in communities on their path towards a renewable energy supply. Within the “Bioenergy-Region Ludwigsfelde” project, an MCDA evaluation has been applied to a small village on its way to becoming a “bioenergy village”. Here, MCDA has been combined with already established tools accompanying the process to becoming a “bioenergy village”, such as planning workshops, citizens’ meetings and best-practice trips. A comprehensive set of sustainability criteria was applied aimed at addressing the questions of local actors. An emphasis was placed on social criteria that comprise the perceived values of local impacts. In general, it was observed that MCDA provides many benefits for this application context. In particular, the group weighting using the SIMOS method demonstrated good results in the process. However, for real-world applications of MCDA, the challenge of data compilation in particular must be addressed.

  15. A multi-criteria decision analysis assessment of waste paper management options

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hanan, Deirdre [Department of Design, Development, Environment and Materials, The Open University, Walton Hall, Milton Keynes, MK7 6AA (United Kingdom); Burnley, Stephen, E-mail: s.j.burnley@open.ac.uk [Department of Design, Development, Environment and Materials, The Open University, Walton Hall, Milton Keynes, MK7 6AA (United Kingdom); Cooke, David [Department of Design, Development, Environment and Materials, The Open University, Walton Hall, Milton Keynes, MK7 6AA (United Kingdom)

    2013-03-15

    Highlights: ► Isolated communities have particular problems in terms of waste management. ► An MCDA tool allowed a group of non-experts to evaluate waste management options. ► The group preferred local waste management solutions to export to the mainland. ► Gasification of paper was the preferred option followed by recycling. ► The group concluded that they could be involved in the decision making process. - Abstract: The use of Multi-criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) was investigated in an exercise using a panel of local residents and stakeholders to assess the options for managing waste paper on the Isle of Wight. Seven recycling, recovery and disposal options were considered by the panel who evaluated each option against seven environmental, financial and social criteria. The panel preferred options where the waste was managed on the island with gasification and recycling achieving the highest scores. Exporting the waste to the English mainland for incineration or landfill proved to be the least preferred options. This research has demonstrated that MCDA is an effective way of involving community groups in waste management decision making.

  16. Formation of a Mesa Shaped Phonon Pulse in Superfluid 4He

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adamenko, I. N.; Nemchenko, K. E.; Slipko, V. A.

    2010-05-01

    We present a theory for the formation of a mesa shaped phonon pulse in superfluid 4He. Starting from the hydrodynamic equations of superfluid helium, we obtain the system of equations which describe the evolution of strongly anisotropic phonon systems. Such systems can be created experimentally. The solution of the equations are simple waves, which correspond to second sound in the moving phonon pulse. Using these exact solutions, we describe the expansion of phonon pulses in superfluid helium at zero temperature. This theory gives an explanation for the mesa shape observed in the measured phonon angular distributions. Almost all dependencies of the mesa shape on the system parameters can be qualitatively understood.

  17. Lateral growth of GaN by liquid phase electroepitaxy using mesa-shaped substrate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kambayashi, Daisuke; Takakura, Hiroyuki; Tomita, Masafumi; Iwakawa, Muneki; Mizuno, Yosuke; Maruyama, Takahiro; Naritsuka, Shigeya

    2016-10-01

    GaN microchannel epitaxy (MCE) was performed using a mesa-shaped substrate and liquid phase electroepitaxy. A flat and wide MCE layer was successfully obtained with a rectangular shape, which is formed by ±c-planes on both the top and bottom surfaces. MCE growth proceeded mainly in the lateral direction by the formation of these planes. Cathodoluminescence measurements showed that the laterally grown layers were almost free of dislocations, and that the dislocations in the mesa areas were confined by the vertical sides of the mesas. In the case of inclined sides, the dislocations would be expected to bend and spread into the laterally grown areas.

  18. Slower Perception Followed by Faster Lexical Decision in Longer Words: A Diffusion Model Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oganian, Yulia; Froehlich, Eva; Schlickeiser, Ulrike; Hofmann, Markus J; Heekeren, Hauke R; Jacobs, Arthur M

    2015-01-01

    Effects of stimulus length on reaction times (RTs) in the lexical decision task are the topic of extensive research. While slower RTs are consistently found for longer pseudo-words, a finding coined the word length effect (WLE), some studies found no effects for words, and yet others reported faster RTs for longer words. Moreover, the WLE depends on the orthographic transparency of a language, with larger effects in more transparent orthographies. Here we investigate processes underlying the WLE in lexical decision in German-English bilinguals using a diffusion model (DM) analysis, which we compared to a linear regression approach. In the DM analysis, RT-accuracy distributions are characterized using parameters that reflect latent sub-processes, in particular evidence accumulation and decision-independent perceptual encoding, instead of typical parameters such as mean RT and accuracy. The regression approach showed a decrease in RTs with length for pseudo-words, but no length effect for words. However, DM analysis revealed that the null effect for words resulted from opposing effects of length on perceptual encoding and rate of evidence accumulation. Perceptual encoding times increased with length for words and pseudo-words, whereas the rate of evidence accumulation increased with length for real words but decreased for pseudo-words. A comparison between DM parameters in German and English suggested that orthographic transparency affects perceptual encoding, whereas effects of length on evidence accumulation are likely to reflect contextual information and the increase in available perceptual evidence with length. These opposing effects may account for the inconsistent findings on WLEs.

  19. MESAFace, a graphical interface to analyze the MESA output

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giannotti, M.; Wise, M.; Mohammed, A.

    2013-04-01

    MESA (Modules for Experiments in Stellar Astrophysics) has become very popular among astrophysicists as a powerful and reliable code to simulate stellar evolution. Analyzing the output data thoroughly may, however, present some challenges and be rather time-consuming. Here we describe MESAFace, a graphical and dynamical interface which provides an intuitive, efficient and quick way to analyze the MESA output. Catalogue identifier: AEOQ_v1_0 Program summary URL:http://cpc.cs.qub.ac.uk/summaries/AEOQ_v1_0.html Program obtainable from: CPC Program Library, Queen’s University, Belfast, N. Ireland Licensing provisions: Standard CPC licence, http://cpc.cs.qub.ac.uk/licence/licence.html No. of lines in distributed program, including test data, etc.: 19165 No. of bytes in distributed program, including test data, etc.: 6300592 Distribution format: tar.gz Programming language: Mathematica. Computer: Any computer capable of running Mathematica. Operating system: Any capable of running Mathematica. Tested on Linux, Mac, Windows XP, Windows 7. RAM: Recommended 2 Gigabytes or more. Supplementary material: Additional test data files are available. Classification: 1.7, 14. Nature of problem: Find a way to quickly and thoroughly analyze the output of a MESA run, including all the profiles, and have an efficient method to produce graphical representations of the data. Solution method: We created two scripts (to be run consecutively). The first one downloads all the data from a MESA run and organizes the profiles in order of age. All the files are saved as tables or arrays of tables which can then be accessed very quickly by Mathematica. The second script uses the Manipulate function to create a graphical interface which allows the user to choose what to plot from a set of menus and buttons. The information shown is updated in real time. The user can access very quickly all the data from the run under examination and visualize it with plots and tables. Unusual features: Moving the

  20. A Geospatial Cyberinfrastructure for Urban Economic Analysis and Spatial Decision-Making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael F. Goodchild

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Urban economic modeling and effective spatial planning are critical tools towards achieving urban sustainability. However, in practice, many technical obstacles, such as information islands, poor documentation of data and lack of software platforms to facilitate virtual collaboration, are challenging the effectiveness of decision-making processes. In this paper, we report on our efforts to design and develop a geospatial cyberinfrastructure (GCI for urban economic analysis and simulation. This GCI provides an operational graphic user interface, built upon a service-oriented architecture to allow (1 widespread sharing and seamless integration of distributed geospatial data; (2 an effective way to address the uncertainty and positional errors encountered in fusing data from diverse sources; (3 the decomposition of complex planning questions into atomic spatial analysis tasks and the generation of a web service chain to tackle such complex problems; and (4 capturing and representing provenance of geospatial data to trace its flow in the modeling task. The Greater Los Angeles Region serves as the test bed. We expect this work to contribute to effective spatial policy analysis and decision-making through the adoption of advanced GCI and to broaden the application coverage of GCI to include urban economic simulations.

  1. A decision-theory approach to interpretable set analysis for high-dimensional data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boca, Simina M; Bravo, Héctor Céorrada; Caffo, Brian; Leek, Jeffrey T; Parmigiani, Giovanni

    2013-09-01

    A key problem in high-dimensional significance analysis is to find pre-defined sets that show enrichment for a statistical signal of interest; the classic example is the enrichment of gene sets for differentially expressed genes. Here, we propose a new decision-theory approach to the analysis of gene sets which focuses on estimating the fraction of non-null variables in a set. We introduce the idea of "atoms," non-overlapping sets based on the original pre-defined set annotations. Our approach focuses on finding the union of atoms that minimizes a weighted average of the number of false discoveries and missed discoveries. We introduce a new false discovery rate for sets, called the atomic false discovery rate (afdr), and prove that the optimal estimator in our decision-theory framework is to threshold the afdr. These results provide a coherent and interpretable framework for the analysis of sets that addresses the key issues of overlapping annotations and difficulty in interpreting p values in both competitive and self-contained tests. We illustrate our method and compare it to a popular existing method using simulated examples, as well as gene-set and brain ROI data analyses.

  2. Multicriteria decision analysis in ranking of analytical procedures for aldrin determination in water.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tobiszewski, Marek; Orłowski, Aleksander

    2015-03-27

    The study presents the possibility of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) application when choosing analytical procedures with low environmental impact. A type of MCDA, Preference Ranking Organization Method for Enrichment Evaluations (PROMETHEE), was chosen as versatile tool that meets all the analytical chemists--decision makers requirements. Twenty five analytical procedures for aldrin determination in water samples (as an example) were selected as input alternatives to MCDA analysis. Nine different criteria describing the alternatives were chosen from different groups--metrological, economical and the most importantly--environmental impact. The weights for each criterion were obtained from questionnaires that were sent to experts, giving three different scenarios for MCDA results. The results of analysis show that PROMETHEE is very promising tool to choose the analytical procedure with respect to its greenness. The rankings for all three scenarios placed solid phase microextraction and liquid phase microextraction--based procedures high, while liquid-liquid extraction, solid phase extraction and stir bar sorptive extraction--based procedures were placed low in the ranking. The results show that although some of the experts do not intentionally choose green analytical chemistry procedures, their MCDA choice is in accordance with green chemistry principles. The PROMETHEE ranking results were compared with more widely accepted green analytical chemistry tools--NEMI and Eco-Scale. As PROMETHEE involved more different factors than NEMI, the assessment results were only weakly correlated. Oppositely, the results of Eco-Scale assessment were well-correlated as both methodologies involved similar criteria of assessment. PMID:25704773

  3. Transportation Big Data: Unbiased Analysis and Tools to Inform Sustainable Transportation Decisions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2016-06-01

    Today, transportation operation and energy systems data are generated at an unprecedented scale. The U.S. Department of Energy's National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) is the go-to source for expertise in providing data and analysis to inform industry and government transportation decision making. The lab's teams of data experts and engineers are mining and analyzing large sets of complex data -- or 'big data' -- to develop solutions that support the research, development, and deployment of market-ready technologies that reduce fuel consumption and greenhouse gas emissions.

  4. Decision Envelopment Analysis of space and terrestrially-based large scale commercial power systems for earth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Criswell, David R.; Thompson, Russell G.

    1992-08-01

    Decision Envelopment Analysis (DEA), the detailed quantitative comparison of alternative economic systems, is used to compare the technical efficiency of the large-scale power systems needed to meet the growing energy needs of terrestrial society. The Lunar Power System (LPS) captures sunlight on the moon, converts it to microwaves and beams the power to receivers on earth that output electricity. In terms of benefits versus costs, normalized to the range of 0 to 1, DEA reveals that LPS is at least ten times more efficient than conventional terrestrial solar-thermal and -photovoltaic, fossil, and nuclear systems. LPS is also environmentally benign compared to the conventional systems.

  5. Manager’s decision-making in organizations empirical analysis of bureaucratic vs. learning approach

    OpenAIRE

    Jana Frenová; Daniela Hrehová; Eva Bolfíková

    2010-01-01

    The paper is focused on the study of manager’s decision-making with respect to the basic model of learning organization, presented by P. Senge as a system model of management. On one hand, the empirical research was conducted in connection with key dimensions of organizational learning such as: 1. system thinking, 2. personal mastery, 3. mental models, 4. team learning, 5. building shared vision and 6. dynamics causes. On the other hand, the research was connected with the analysis of the bur...

  6. A critical meta-analysis of lens model studies in human judgment and decision-making.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Esther Kaufmann

    Full Text Available Achieving accurate judgment ('judgmental achievement' is of utmost importance in daily life across multiple domains. The lens model and the lens model equation provide useful frameworks for modeling components of judgmental achievement and for creating tools to help decision makers (e.g., physicians, teachers reach better judgments (e.g., a correct diagnosis, an accurate estimation of intelligence. Previous meta-analyses of judgment and decision-making studies have attempted to evaluate overall judgmental achievement and have provided the basis for evaluating the success of bootstrapping (i.e., replacing judges by linear models that guide decision making. However, previous meta-analyses have failed to appropriately correct for a number of study design artifacts (e.g., measurement error, dichotomization, which may have potentially biased estimations (e.g., of the variability between studies and led to erroneous interpretations (e.g., with regards to moderator variables. In the current study we therefore conduct the first psychometric meta-analysis of judgmental achievement studies that corrects for a number of study design artifacts. We identified 31 lens model studies (N = 1,151, k = 49 that met our inclusion criteria. We evaluated overall judgmental achievement as well as whether judgmental achievement depended on decision domain (e.g., medicine, education and/or the level of expertise (expert vs. novice. We also evaluated whether using corrected estimates affected conclusions with regards to the success of bootstrapping with psychometrically-corrected models. Further, we introduce a new psychometric trim-and-fill method to estimate the effect sizes of potentially missing studies correct psychometric meta-analyses for effects of publication bias. Comparison of the results of the psychometric meta-analysis with the results of a traditional meta-analysis (which only corrected for sampling error indicated that artifact correction leads to

  7. Head First Data Analysis A learner's guide to big numbers, statistics, and good decisions

    CERN Document Server

    Milton, Michael

    2009-01-01

    Today, interpreting data is a critical decision-making factor for businesses and organizations. If your job requires you to manage and analyze all kinds of data, turn to Head First Data Analysis, where you'll quickly learn how to collect and organize data, sort the distractions from the truth, find meaningful patterns, draw conclusions, predict the future, and present your findings to others. Whether you're a product developer researching the market viability of a new product or service, a marketing manager gauging or predicting the effectiveness of a campaign, a salesperson who needs data t

  8. A critical meta-analysis of lens model studies in human judgment and decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaufmann, Esther; Reips, Ulf-Dietrich; Wittmann, Werner W

    2013-01-01

    Achieving accurate judgment ('judgmental achievement') is of utmost importance in daily life across multiple domains. The lens model and the lens model equation provide useful frameworks for modeling components of judgmental achievement and for creating tools to help decision makers (e.g., physicians, teachers) reach better judgments (e.g., a correct diagnosis, an accurate estimation of intelligence). Previous meta-analyses of judgment and decision-making studies have attempted to evaluate overall judgmental achievement and have provided the basis for evaluating the success of bootstrapping (i.e., replacing judges by linear models that guide decision making). However, previous meta-analyses have failed to appropriately correct for a number of study design artifacts (e.g., measurement error, dichotomization), which may have potentially biased estimations (e.g., of the variability between studies) and led to erroneous interpretations (e.g., with regards to moderator variables). In the current study we therefore conduct the first psychometric meta-analysis of judgmental achievement studies that corrects for a number of study design artifacts. We identified 31 lens model studies (N = 1,151, k = 49) that met our inclusion criteria. We evaluated overall judgmental achievement as well as whether judgmental achievement depended on decision domain (e.g., medicine, education) and/or the level of expertise (expert vs. novice). We also evaluated whether using corrected estimates affected conclusions with regards to the success of bootstrapping with psychometrically-corrected models. Further, we introduce a new psychometric trim-and-fill method to estimate the effect sizes of potentially missing studies correct psychometric meta-analyses for effects of publication bias. Comparison of the results of the psychometric meta-analysis with the results of a traditional meta-analysis (which only corrected for sampling error) indicated that artifact correction leads to a) an

  9. A Decision Tree-Structured Algorithm of Speaker Adaptation Based on Gaussian Similarity Analysis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WU Ji; WANG Zuoying

    2001-01-01

    Gaussian Similarity Analysis (GSA)algorithm can be used to estimate the similarity between two Gaussian distributed variables with full covariance matrix. Based on this algorithm, we propose a method in speaker adaptation of covariance. It is different from the traditional algorithms, which mainly focus on the adaptation of mean vector of state observation probability density. A binary decision tree is constructed offline with the similarity measure and the adaptation procedure is data-driven. It can be shown from the experiments that we can get a significant further improvement over the mean vectors adaptation.

  10. Ranking Efficient and Inefficient Decision Making Units in Data Envelopment Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rita Markovits-Somogyi

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Data envelopment analysis is a non-parametric linear programming method capable of the efficiency evaluation of decision making units (e.g. public transport companies. It is very often used in the transport sector for the efficiency assessment of airports, ports, railways and public transport companies. However, the original DEA method does not differentiate the efficient firms and thus, does not create full ranking. To overcome this problem, several methods have been developed with the aim of enlarging the distinguishing power of DEA. The present article aims to review these methods with a special emphasis on the ones elaborated in the last decade.

  11. Availability, Sustainability, and Suitability of Ground Water, Rogers Mesa, Delta County, Colorado - Types of Analyses and Data for Use in Subdivision Water-Supply Reports

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watts, Kenneth R.

    2008-01-01

    The population of Delta County, Colorado, like that in much of the Western United States, is forecast to increase substantially in the next few decades. A substantial portion of the increased population likely will reside in rural subdivisions and use residential wells for domestic water supplies. In Colorado, a subdivision developer is required to submit a water-supply plan through the county for approval by the Colorado Division of Water Resources. If the water supply is to be provided by wells, the water-supply plan must include a water-supply report. The water-supply report demonstrates the availability, sustainability, and suitability of the water supply for the proposed subdivision. During 2006, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with Delta County, Colorado, began a study to develop criteria that the Delta County Land Use Department can use to evaluate water-supply reports for proposed subdivisions. A table was prepared that lists the types of analyses and data that may be needed in a water-supply report for a water-supply plan that proposes the use of ground water. A preliminary analysis of the availability, sustainability, and suitability of the ground-water resources of Rogers Mesa, Delta County, Colorado, was prepared for a hypothetical subdivision to demonstrate hydrologic analyses and data that may be needed for water-supply reports for proposed subdivisions. Rogers Mesa is a 12-square-mile upland mesa located along the north side of the North Fork Gunnison River about 15 miles east of Delta, Colorado. The principal land use on Rogers Mesa is irrigated agriculture, with about 5,651 acres of irrigated cropland, grass pasture, and orchards. The principal source of irrigation water is surface water diverted from the North Fork Gunnison River and Leroux Creek. The estimated area of platted subdivisions on or partially on Rogers Mesa in 2007 was about 4,792 acres of which about 2,756 acres was irrigated land in 2000. The principal aquifer on Rogers

  12. Addressing preference heterogeneity in public health policy by combining Cluster Analysis and Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis: Proof of Method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaltoft, Mette Kjer; Turner, Robin; Cunich, Michelle; Salkeld, Glenn; Nielsen, Jesper Bo; Dowie, Jack

    2015-01-01

    The use of subgroups based on biological-clinical and socio-demographic variables to deal with population heterogeneity is well-established in public policy. The use of subgroups based on preferences is rare, except when religion based, and controversial. If it were decided to treat subgroup preferences as valid determinants of public policy, a transparent analytical procedure is needed. In this proof of method study we show how public preferences could be incorporated into policy decisions in a way that respects both the multi-criterial nature of those decisions, and the heterogeneity of the population in relation to the importance assigned to relevant criteria. It involves combining Cluster Analysis (CA), to generate the subgroup sets of preferences, with Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA), to provide the policy framework into which the clustered preferences are entered. We employ three techniques of CA to demonstrate that not only do different techniques produce different clusters, but that choosing among techniques (as well as developing the MCDA structure) is an important task to be undertaken in implementing the approach outlined in any specific policy context. Data for the illustrative, not substantive, application are from a Randomized Controlled Trial of online decision aids for Australian men aged 40-69 years considering Prostate-specific Antigen testing for prostate cancer. We show that such analyses can provide policy-makers with insights into the criterion-specific needs of different subgroups. Implementing CA and MCDA in combination to assist in the development of policies on important health and community issues such as drug coverage, reimbursement, and screening programs, poses major challenges -conceptual, methodological, ethical-political, and practical - but most are exposed by the techniques, not created by them.

  13. Vocationally Mature Coping Strategies and Progress in the Decision-Making Process: A Canonical Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phillips, Susan D.; Strohmer, Douglas C.

    1983-01-01

    Examined the relationship between factors influencing career development and the decision-making process in 174 students. Results suggested that planning orientation will hinder or facilitate movement beyond the exploratory phase of decision making, and decision-making skills reduce the effort of the prechoice portion of decision making. (WAS)

  14. Integrating human and robot decision-making dynamics with feedback : Models and convergence analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cao, Ming; Stewart, Andrew; Leonard, Naomi Ehrich

    2008-01-01

    Leveraging research by psychologists on human decision-making, we present a human-robot decision-making problem associated with a complex task and study the corresponding joint decision-making dynamics. The collaborative task is designed so that the human makes decisions just as human subjects make

  15. Applying Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis to Comparative Benefit-Risk Assessment: Choosing among Statins in Primary Prevention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tervonen, Tommi; Naci, Huseyin; van Valkenhoef, Gert; Ades, Anthony E; Angelis, Aris; Hillege, Hans L; Postmus, Douwe

    2015-10-01

    Decision makers in different health care settings need to weigh the benefits and harms of alternative treatment strategies. Such health care decisions include marketing authorization by regulatory agencies, practice guideline formulation by clinical groups, and treatment selection by prescribers and patients in clinical practice. Multiple criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is a family of formal methods that help make explicit the tradeoffs that decision makers accept between the benefit and risk outcomes of different treatment options. Despite the recent interest in MCDA, certain methodological aspects are poorly understood. This paper presents 7 guidelines for applying MCDA in benefit-risk assessment and illustrates their use in the selection of a statin drug for the primary prevention of cardiovascular disease. We provide guidance on the key methodological issues of how to define the decision problem, how to select a set of nonoverlapping evaluation criteria, how to synthesize and summarize the evidence, how to translate relative measures to absolute ones that permit comparisons between the criteria, how to define suitable scale ranges, how to elicit partial preference information from the decision makers, and how to incorporate uncertainty in the analysis. Our example on statins indicates that fluvastatin is likely to be the most preferred drug by our decision maker and that this result is insensitive to the amount of preference information incorporated in the analysis. PMID:25986470

  16. Laparoscopic hysterectomy with morcellation versus abdominal hysterectomy for presumed fibroids in premenopausal women: a decision analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    SIEDHOFF, Matthew T.; WHEELER, Stephanie B.; RUTSTEIN, Sarah E.; GELLER, Elizabeth J.; DOLL, Kemi M.; WU, Jennifer M.; CLARKE-PEARSON, Daniel L.

    2016-01-01

    Objective To model outcomes in laparoscopic hysterectomy with morcellation compared to abdominal hysterectomy for the presumed fibroid uterus, examining short-and long-term complications, as well as mortality. Study Design A decision tree was constructed to compare outcomes for a hypothetical cohort of 100,000 premenopausal women undergoing hysterectomy for presumed fibroids over a 5-year time horizon. Parameter and quality of life utility estimates were determined from published literature for postoperative complications, leiomyosarcoma incidence, death related to leiomyomsarcoma, and procedure-related death. Results The decision analysis predicted fewer overall deaths with laparoscopic hysterectomy compared to abdominal hysterectomy (98 vs. 103 per 100,000). While there were more deaths from leiomyosarcoma following laparoscopic hysterectomy (86 vs. 71 per 100,000), there were more hysterectomy-related deaths with abdominal hysterectomy (32 vs. 12 per 100,000). The laparoscopic group had lower rates of transfusion (2,400 vs. 4,700 per 100,000), wound infection (1,500 vs 6,300 per 100,000), venous thromboembolism (690 vs. 840 per 100,000) and incisional hernia (710 vs. 8,800 per 100,000), but a higher rate of vaginal cuff dehiscence (640 vs. 290 per 100,000). Laparoscopic hysterectomy resulted in more quality-adjusted life years (499,171 vs. 490,711 over five years). Conclusion The risk of leiomyosarcoma morcellation is balanced by procedure-related complications associated with laparotomy, including death. This analysis provides patients and surgeons with estimates of risk and benefit, upon which patient-centered decisions can be made. PMID:25817518

  17. Costs and effectiveness of measures to reduce SO2-emissions: A decision support analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The damage to forests observed in the central and southern parts of the Federal Republic of Germany has increased very rapidly over the past two years. Most scientists believe that SO2- and NOsub(x)-emissions are the main reasons for this damage. This demands the immediate initiation of countermeasures. Since the benefits of these measures cannot be calculated exactly, political decisions have to be made under conditions that are uncertain. The paper demonstrates how and to what extent a cost-effectiveness analysis is able to support a rational decision process under these circumstances. The investigation area is Baden-Wuerttemberg, a state situated in the southwest of the Federal Republic of Germany. First, a reference scenario is defined which describes the possible development of the electricity supply system. Then measures to reduce SO2-emissions are collected and described. Measures required by law (for instance, installation of flue-gas desulphurization by July 1988), are not considered, since they are part of the reference scenario. A cost-effectiveness ratio - that is the amount of money needed to reduce the emissions by one kilogram of SO2 - is evaluated for every measure considered. Measures with a cost-effectiveness ratio that is lower than or equal to that of measures required by law are recommended. Regional electricity suppliers have agreed to put these measures into effect. Realization of these measures will reduce SO2-emissions in Baden-Wuerttemberg by approximately 25%, or 19,000t SO2 per year, during the period 1984 to 1988. Experience shows that a carefully executed cost-effectiveness analysis can be a valuable input to a decision making process in an uncertain environment by evaluating and ranking the costs and effects of the SO2-reduction measures that are at our disposal. (author)

  18. Analysis of Decision Trees in Context Clustering of Hidden Markov Model Based Thai Speech Synthesis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Suphattharachai Chomphan

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Problem statement: In Thai speech synthesis using Hidden Markov model (HMM based synthesis system, the tonal speech quality is degraded due to tone distortion. This major problem must be treated appropriately to preserve the tone characteristics of each syllable unit. Since tone brings about the intelligibility of the synthesized speech. It is needed to establish the tone questions and other phonetic questions in tree-based context clustering process accordingly. Approach: This study describes the analysis of questions in tree-based context clustering process of an HMM-based speech synthesis system for Thai language. In the system, spectrum, pitch or F0 and state duration are modeled simultaneously in a unified framework of HMM, their parameter distributions are clustered independently by using a decision-tree based context clustering technique. The contextual factors which affect spectrum, pitch and duration, i.e., part of speech, position and number of phones in a syllable, position and number of syllables in a word, position and number of words in a sentence, phone type and tone type, are taken into account for constructing the questions of the decision tree. All in all, thirteen sets of questions are analyzed in comparison. Results: In the experiment, we analyzed the decision trees by counting the number of questions in each node coming from those thirteen sets and by calculating the dominance score given to each question as the reciprocal of the distance from the root node to the question node. The highest number and dominance score are of the set of phonetic type, while the second, third highest ones are of the set of part of speech and tone type. Conclusion: By counting the number of questions in each node and calculating the dominance score, we can set the priority of each question set. All in all, the analysis results bring about further development of Thai speech synthesis with efficient context clustering process in

  19. From "weight of evidence" to quantitative data integration using multicriteria decision analysis and Bayesian methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linkov, Igor; Massey, Olivia; Keisler, Jeff; Rusyn, Ivan; Hartung, Thomas

    2015-01-01

    "Weighing" available evidence in the process of decision-making is unavoidable, yet it is one step that routinely raises suspicions: what evidence should be used, how much does it weigh, and whose thumb may be tipping the scales? This commentary aims to evaluate the current state and future roles of various types of evidence for hazard assessment as it applies to environmental health. In its recent evaluation of the US Environmental Protection Agency's Integrated Risk Information System assessment process, the National Research Council committee singled out the term "weight of evidence" (WoE) for critique, deeming the process too vague and detractive to the practice of evaluating human health risks of chemicals. Moving the methodology away from qualitative, vague and controversial methods towards generalizable, quantitative and transparent methods for appropriately managing diverse lines of evidence is paramount for both regulatory and public acceptance of the hazard assessments. The choice of terminology notwithstanding, a number of recent Bayesian WoE-based methods, the emergence of multi criteria decision analysis for WoE applications, as well as the general principles behind the foundational concepts of WoE, show promise in how to move forward and regain trust in the data integration step of the assessments. We offer our thoughts on the current state of WoE as a whole and while we acknowledge that many WoE applications have been largely qualitative and subjective in nature, we see this as an opportunity to turn WoE towards a quantitative direction that includes Bayesian and multi criteria decision analysis.

  20. From "weight of evidence" to quantitative data integration using multicriteria decision analysis and Bayesian methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linkov, Igor; Massey, Olivia; Keisler, Jeff; Rusyn, Ivan; Hartung, Thomas

    2015-01-01

    "Weighing" available evidence in the process of decision-making is unavoidable, yet it is one step that routinely raises suspicions: what evidence should be used, how much does it weigh, and whose thumb may be tipping the scales? This commentary aims to evaluate the current state and future roles of various types of evidence for hazard assessment as it applies to environmental health. In its recent evaluation of the US Environmental Protection Agency's Integrated Risk Information System assessment process, the National Research Council committee singled out the term "weight of evidence" (WoE) for critique, deeming the process too vague and detractive to the practice of evaluating human health risks of chemicals. Moving the methodology away from qualitative, vague and controversial methods towards generalizable, quantitative and transparent methods for appropriately managing diverse lines of evidence is paramount for both regulatory and public acceptance of the hazard assessments. The choice of terminology notwithstanding, a number of recent Bayesian WoE-based methods, the emergence of multi criteria decision analysis for WoE applications, as well as the general principles behind the foundational concepts of WoE, show promise in how to move forward and regain trust in the data integration step of the assessments. We offer our thoughts on the current state of WoE as a whole and while we acknowledge that many WoE applications have been largely qualitative and subjective in nature, we see this as an opportunity to turn WoE towards a quantitative direction that includes Bayesian and multi criteria decision analysis. PMID:25592482

  1. Ex post power economic analysis of record of decision operational restrictions at Glen Canyon Dam.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Veselka, T. D.; Poch, L. A.; Palmer, C. S.; Loftin, S.; Osiek, B; Decision and Information Sciences; Western Area Power Administration

    2010-07-31

    On October 9, 1996, Bruce Babbitt, then-Secretary of the U.S. Department of the Interior signed the Record of Decision (ROD) on operating criteria for the Glen Canyon Dam (GCD). Criteria selected were based on the Modified Low Fluctuating Flow (MLFF) Alternative as described in the Operation of Glen Canyon Dam, Colorado River Storage Project, Arizona, Final Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) (Reclamation 1995). These restrictions reduced the operating flexibility of the hydroelectric power plant and therefore its economic value. The EIS provided impact information to support the ROD, including an analysis of operating criteria alternatives on power system economics. This ex post study reevaluates ROD power economic impacts and compares these results to the economic analysis performed prior (ex ante) to the ROD for the MLFF Alternative. On the basis of the methodology used in the ex ante analysis, anticipated annual economic impacts of the ROD were estimated to range from approximately $15.1 million to $44.2 million in terms of 1991 dollars ($1991). This ex post analysis incorporates historical events that took place between 1997 and 2005, including the evolution of power markets in the Western Electricity Coordinating Council as reflected in market prices for capacity and energy. Prompted by ROD operational restrictions, this analysis also incorporates a decision made by the Western Area Power Administration to modify commitments that it made to its customers. Simulated operations of GCD were based on the premise that hourly production patterns would maximize the economic value of the hydropower resource. On the basis of this assumption, it was estimated that economic impacts were on average $26.3 million in $1991, or $39 million in $2009.

  2. Multi-criteria decision analysis for health technology assessment in Canada: insights from an expert panel discussion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diaby, Vakaramoko; Goeree, Ron; Hoch, Jeffrey; Siebert, Uwe

    2015-02-01

    Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA), a decision-making tool, has received increasing attention in recent years, notably in the healthcare field. For Canada, it is unclear whether and how MCDA should be incorporated into the existing health technology assessment (HTA) decision-making process. To facilitate debate on improving HTA decision-making in Canada, a workshop was held in conjunction with the 8th World Congress on Health Economics of the International Health Economics Association in Toronto, Canada in July 2011. The objective of the workshop was to discuss the potential benefits and challenges related to the use of MCDA for HTA decision-making in Canada. This paper summarizes and discusses the recommendations of an expert panel convened at the workshop to discuss opportunities and concerns with reference to the implementation of MCDA in Canada.

  3. MARKETING MIX ANALYSIS OF NATURAL TOURISM AREA 'KAWAH PUTIH’ AND ITS EFFECT ON VISITORS’ DECISION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Isyana Rahayu

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Kawah Putih is one of the leading tourist places in Bandung which has significantly contributed to the revenue of travel business division in the Forestry Housing as the manager. The revenue obtained depends on the marketing mix strategy conducted by the management because the marketing mix is the elements which become a consideration basis when making marketing communication strategy services in order to understand the demands of tourists. Therefore, the objectives of this study were to obtain and understand information and analyze the visitors’ responses on the natural tourism area related to the marketing mix that has been implemented by the management. The dependent variables included the elements of marketing mix, that involves 7P – product, price, place, promotion, people, procees and physical evidence, while the independent variable included the visitors’ decision. From the validity and tests, it is revealed that the overall regression model bring effects or at least there is one variable of the marketing mix factors that influences the decision of the visitors. From the data analysis, it is found that the process variables and physical appearance do not significantly affect the decision of the visitors. The other variables. that involve variables of product, price, place, promotion, and human have significantly influence the visitors’ decision.Keywords: Marketing mix, Kawah Putih, decision of visitors, touristsABSTRAKKawah Putih merupakan salah satu wisata unggulan Kota Bandung dan telah berkontribusi cukup signifikan untuk pendapatan divisi bisnis wisata Perum Perhutani. Pendapatan yang diperoleh tergantung dari strategi bauran pemasaran yang dilakukan oleh pengelola karena pada bauran pemasaran terdapat unsur atau elemen yang menjadi dasar pertimbangan pembuatan strategi komunikasi pemasaran jasa dalam rangka untuk memahami tuntutan dari wisatawan. Tujuan penelitian ini adalah memperoleh informasi, memahami dan menganalisis

  4. The Underground Test Area Project of the Nevada Test Site: Building Confidence in Groundwater Flow and Transport Models at Pahute Mesa Through Focused Characterization Studies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pawloski, G A; Wurtz, J; Drellack, S L

    2009-12-29

    Pahute Mesa at the Nevada Test Site contains about 8.0E+07 curies of radioactivity caused by underground nuclear testing. The Underground Test Area Subproject has entered Phase II of data acquisition, analysis, and modeling to determine the risk to receptors from radioactivity in the groundwater, establish a groundwater monitoring network, and provide regulatory closure. Evaluation of radionuclide contamination at Pahute Mesa is particularly difficult due to the complex stratigraphy and structure caused by multiple calderas in the Southwestern Nevada Volcanic Field and overprinting of Basin and Range faulting. Included in overall Phase II goals is the need to reduce the uncertainty and improve confidence in modeling results. New characterization efforts are underway, and results from the first year of a three-year well drilling plan are presented.

  5. Application of effective discharge analysis to environmental flow decision-making

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKay, S. Kyle; Freeman, Mary C.; Covich, A.P.

    2016-01-01

    Well-informed river management decisions rely on an explicit statement of objectives, repeatable analyses, and a transparent system for assessing trade-offs. These components may then be applied to compare alternative operational regimes for water resource infrastructure (e.g., diversions, locks, and dams). Intra- and inter-annual hydrologic variability further complicates these already complex environmental flow decisions. Effective discharge analysis (developed in studies of geomorphology) is a powerful tool for integrating temporal variability of flow magnitude and associated ecological consequences. Here, we adapt the effectiveness framework to include multiple elements of the natural flow regime (i.e., timing, duration, and rate-of-change) as well as two flow variables. We demonstrate this analytical approach using a case study of environmental flow management based on long-term (60 years) daily discharge records in the Middle Oconee River near Athens, GA, USA. Specifically, we apply an existing model for estimating young-of-year fish recruitment based on flow-dependent metrics to an effective discharge analysis that incorporates hydrologic variability and multiple focal taxa. We then compare three alternative methods of environmental flow provision. Percentage-based withdrawal schemes outcompete other environmental flow methods across all levels of water withdrawal and ecological outcomes.

  6. BiodieselFAO: An Integrated Decision Support System for Investment Analysis in the Biodiesel Production Chain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aziz Galvão da Silva Júnior

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available In the short and medium terms, biofuels are the most viable alternative to reduce the environmental impact of fossil fuels. The recent controversy over the competition between biofuels and food production increases the complexity of investment decisions in the biodiesel production chain. In this context, decision support tools are highly relevant. The purpose of this article is to describe the BiodieselFAO using the Unified Modeling Language (UML. An integrated analysis considering both agricultural and industrial sectors was identified as a key requirement to the system. Therefore, farmers and industry are the main actors in the use case diagram. As the raw material represents around 70% of the industrial cost of biodiesel production, the price negotiation of raw material (oilseeds is the central use case. Configuration, agriculture, industry, results and scenarios are the modules, which encompass the functionalities derived from the UML diagrams. The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO has made the BiodieselFAO available, free of charge, to around 180 professionals from 17 Latin American countries. Additionally, the developing team has supported the usage of the BiodieselFAO in several biodiesel investment analyses throughout Latin America. The system was also useful in the design and analysis of policy related to biodiesel industry in Brazil.

  7. Application of Effective Discharge Analysis to Environmental Flow Decision-Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKay, S. Kyle; Freeman, Mary C.; Covich, Alan P.

    2016-06-01

    Well-informed river management decisions rely on an explicit statement of objectives, repeatable analyses, and a transparent system for assessing trade-offs. These components may then be applied to compare alternative operational regimes for water resource infrastructure (e.g., diversions, locks, and dams). Intra- and inter-annual hydrologic variability further complicates these already complex environmental flow decisions. Effective discharge analysis (developed in studies of geomorphology) is a powerful tool for integrating temporal variability of flow magnitude and associated ecological consequences. Here, we adapt the effectiveness framework to include multiple elements of the natural flow regime (i.e., timing, duration, and rate-of-change) as well as two flow variables. We demonstrate this analytical approach using a case study of environmental flow management based on long-term (60 years) daily discharge records in the Middle Oconee River near Athens, GA, USA. Specifically, we apply an existing model for estimating young-of-year fish recruitment based on flow-dependent metrics to an effective discharge analysis that incorporates hydrologic variability and multiple focal taxa. We then compare three alternative methods of environmental flow provision. Percentage-based withdrawal schemes outcompete other environmental flow methods across all levels of water withdrawal and ecological outcomes.

  8. Importance analysis based on logical differential calculus and Binary Decision Diagram

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    System availability evaluation, sensitivity analysis, Importance Measures, and optimal design are important issues that have become research topics for reliability engineering. There are different mathematical approaches to the development of these topics. The structure function based approach is one of them. Structure function enables one to analyse a system of any complexity. But computational complexity of structure function based methods is time consuming for large-scale networks. We propose to use two mathematical approaches for decision to this problem for system importance analysis. The first of them is Direct Partial Boolean Derivative. New equations for calculating the Importance Measures are developed in terms of these derivatives. The second is Binary Decision Diagram (BDD), that supports efficient manipulation of Boolean algebra. Two algorithms for calculating Direct Partial Boolean Derivative based on BDD of structure function are proposed in this paper. The experimental results show the efficiency of new algorithms for calculating Direct Partial Boolean Derivative and Importance Measures. - Highlights: • New approach for calculation of Importance Measures is proposed. • Direct Partial Boolean Derivatives are used for calculation of Importance Measures. • New equations for Importance Measures are obtained. • New algorithm to calculate Direct Partial Boolean Derivatives by BDD is developed

  9. Strategic rehabilitation planning of piped water networks using multi-criteria decision analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scholten, Lisa; Scheidegger, Andreas; Reichert, Peter; Maurer, Max; Mauer, Max; Lienert, Judit

    2014-02-01

    To overcome the difficulties of strategic asset management of water distribution networks, a pipe failure and a rehabilitation model are combined to predict the long-term performance of rehabilitation strategies. Bayesian parameter estimation is performed to calibrate the failure and replacement model based on a prior distribution inferred from three large water utilities in Switzerland. Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) and scenario planning build the framework for evaluating 18 strategic rehabilitation alternatives under future uncertainty. Outcomes for three fundamental objectives (low costs, high reliability, and high intergenerational equity) are assessed. Exploitation of stochastic dominance concepts helps to identify twelve non-dominated alternatives and local sensitivity analysis of stakeholder preferences is used to rank them under four scenarios. Strategies with annual replacement of 1.5-2% of the network perform reasonably well under all scenarios. In contrast, the commonly used reactive replacement is not recommendable unless cost is the only relevant objective. Exemplified for a small Swiss water utility, this approach can readily be adapted to support strategic asset management for any utility size and based on objectives and preferences that matter to the respective decision makers.

  10. Dislocation Reduction in HgCdTe Mesa Structures Formed on CdTe/Si

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simingalam, Sina; Pattison, James; Chen, Yuanping; Wijewarnasuriya, Priyalal; Rao, Mulpuri V.

    2016-09-01

    Mercury cadmium telluride (MCT) epilayers have been grown on CdTe/Si using molecular beam epitaxy and 8- μm-deep mesa structures formed using plasma etching. Following previous work done on etching mesas and subjecting material to thermal cycle annealing, we set out to determine the limits and underlying physics of dislocation reduction in mesa-etched and annealed MCT. This paper describes the dependence of dislocation reduction on anneal time, cycle annealing, temperature, and etch depth. We show dislocation density reduction below 3 × 105 cm-2 in 10- μm-wide, long-bar mesas along the [0bar{1}1] orientation with only a 5-min anneal at 400°C.

  11. Dislocation Reduction in HgCdTe Mesa Structures Formed on CdTe/Si

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simingalam, Sina; Pattison, James; Chen, Yuanping; Wijewarnasuriya, Priyalal; Rao, Mulpuri V.

    2016-04-01

    Mercury cadmium telluride (MCT) epilayers have been grown on CdTe/Si using molecular beam epitaxy and 8-μm-deep mesa structures formed using plasma etching. Following previous work done on etching mesas and subjecting material to thermal cycle annealing, we set out to determine the limits and underlying physics of dislocation reduction in mesa-etched and annealed MCT. This paper describes the dependence of dislocation reduction on anneal time, cycle annealing, temperature, and etch depth. We show dislocation density reduction below 3 × 105 cm-2 in 10-μm-wide, long-bar mesas along the [0bar{1}1] orientation with only a 5-min anneal at 400°C.

  12. The emission mechanism of THz electromagnetic waves from Bi2212 mesa device

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watanabe, Chiharu; Minami, Hidetoshi; Kitamura, Takeo; Kashiwagi, Takanari; Klemm, Richard; Kadowaki, Kazuo

    From the detailed study of the severe temperature inhomogeneity of the Bi2212 IJJ mesa structure often forming ``hot-spot'' at relatively higher bias current region, while the electromagnetic waves are emitted, multi terminal potential measurement of the mesa device has revealed that the equipotential part of the mesa can only give universal ac-Josephson relationship between the potential difference and the frequency measured by the FT-IR spectrometer, and it is violated as the potential is measured in the region where the hot-spot is formed. This means that the deviation of the emission frequency from the ac-Josephson effect comes from a gradient of the electrical potential distribution. This strongly suggests that the electromagnetic waves at THz frequency may be generated in the superconducting part of the mesa, where the static electric potential is uniform, satisfying the ac-Josephson relation universally no matter how much temperature gradient is.

  13. Analysis and design of a web-based decision support system for choosing higher education studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kostoglou Vassilis

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The vocational orientation of the youngsters who are about to enter, study, or have recently graduated at higher education (HE institutions, and linking HE with labor market are two research areas which have not been investigated extensively in Balkan countries. Job (or occupational profiles, among other tools used in vocational orientation, provide standardized and digitized descriptions of different professions. This article focuses on the analysis and the design of a web-based decision support system (DSS to assist its users in getting thoroughly informed about HE studies in Greece, and eventually in choosing their vocational prospects. Apart from reviewing the related previous research work and relevant web-based systems, we present the main elements of the system’s analysis and its design, the extensions that could lead to even more powerful systems, and conclusions about the advantages, limitations and practical application of the DSS.

  14. Image data integration and analysis for natural disaster decision support systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roper, William E.

    2001-06-01

    Natural disasters have a major impact, globally and within the United States causing injury and loss of life, as well as economic losses. To better address disaster response needs, a task force has been established to leverage technological capabilities to improve disaster response management. Web based geospatial analysis is one of these important capabilities. Samples of geospatial technologies applicable to disaster management are presented. These include 3D visualization, hyperspectral imagery, LIDAR, use of spectral libraries, digital multispectral video, radar imaging systems, photogeologic analysis and geographic information systems. An example scenario of a hurricane with landfall at Mobile, Alabama is used to demonstrate the interoperable use of web-based geospatial information to support decision support systems and assist public information communication.

  15. Endothelial dysfunction is associated with left ventricular mass (assessed using MRI) in an adult population (MESA)

    OpenAIRE

    Yeboah, J; Crouse, JR; Bluemke, DA; Lima, JAC; Polak, JF; Burke, GL; Herrington, DM

    2010-01-01

    Brachial flow-mediated dilation (FMD) is a measure of endothelial nitric oxide bioavailability. Endothelial nitric oxide controls vascular tone and is likely to modify the ventricular muscle coupling mechanism. The association between left ventricular mass and FMD is not well understood. We assessed the association between left ventricular mass index (LVMI) and FMD in participants of the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA). MESA is a population-based study of 6814 adults free of clin...

  16. Enhanced adaptive management: integrating decision analysis, scenario analysis and environmental modeling for the Everglades.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Convertino, Matteo; Foran, Christy M; Keisler, Jeffrey M; Scarlett, Lynn; LoSchiavo, Andy; Kiker, Gregory A; Linkov, Igor

    2013-01-01

    We propose to enhance existing adaptive management efforts with a decision-analytical approach that can guide the initial selection of robust restoration alternative plans and inform the need to adjust these alternatives in the course of action based on continuously acquired monitoring information and changing stakeholder values. We demonstrate an application of enhanced adaptive management for a wetland restoration case study inspired by the Florida Everglades restoration effort. We find that alternatives designed to reconstruct the pre-drainage flow may have a positive ecological impact, but may also have high operational costs and only marginally contribute to meeting other objectives such as reduction of flooding. Enhanced adaptive management allows managers to guide investment in ecosystem modeling and monitoring efforts through scenario and value of information analyses to support optimal restoration strategies in the face of uncertain and changing information. PMID:24113217

  17. Airports’ Operational Performance and Efficiency Evaluation Based on Multicriteria Decision Analysis (MCDA and Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA Tools

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    João Jardim

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Airport benchmarking depends on airports’ operational performance and efficiency indicators, which are important for business agents, operational managers, regulatory agencies, airlines and passengers. There are several sets of single and complex indicators to evaluate airports’ performance and efficiency as well as several techniques to benchmark such infrastructures. The general aim of this work is twofold: to balance the data envelopment analysis (DEA and multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA tools and to show that airport benchmarking is also possible using a multicriteria decision analysis tool called Measuring Attractiveness by a Categorical Based Evaluation Technique (MACBETH. Whilst DEA measures the relative performance in the presence of multiple inputs and outputs, MCDA/ MACBETH uses performance and efficiency indicators to support benchmark results, being useful for evaluating the real importance and weight of the selected indicators. The work is structured as follows: first, a state-of-the-art review concerning either airport benchmarking and performance indicators or DEA and MCDA tool techniques; second, an overview of the impacts on airports’ operational performance and efficiency of emergent operational factors (sudden meteorological/natural phenomena; third, two case studies on a set of worldwide airports and Madeira (FNC Airport; and fourth, some insights into and challenges for future research that are still under development.

  18. Interference of partial visual analysis of root filling quality and apical status on retreatment decisions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Renata Dornelles Morgental

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: The presence of periapical radiolucency has been used as a criterion for endodontic treatment failure. However, in addition to the inherent limitations of radiographic examinations, radiographic interpretations are extremely subjective. Thus, this study investigated the effect of partial analysis of root filling quality and periapical status on retreatment decisions by general dentists. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Twelve digitalized periapical radiographs were analyzed by 10 observers. The study was conducted at three time points at 1-week intervals. Radiographs edited with the Adobe Photoshop CS4 software were analyzed at three time points: first, only root filling quality was analyzed; second, only the periapical areas of the teeth under study were visualized; finally, observers analyzed the unedited radiographic image. Spearman ’s coefficient was used to analyze the correlations between the scores assigned when the periapical area was not visible and when the unedited radiograph was analyzed, as well as between the scores assigned when root fillings where not visible and when the unedited radiograph was analyzed. Sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values between partial images and unedited radiographs were also used to analyze retreatment decisions. The level of significance was set at 5%. RESULTS: The visualization of the root filling on the unedited radiograph affected the interpretation of the periapical status and the technical quality of the fillings has a greater influence on the general dentist’s decision to prescribe endodontic retreatment than the periapical condition. CONCLUSION: In order to make endodontic diagnosis, radiographic interpretation process should not only emphasize technical aspects, but also consider biological factors.

  19. Adaptation and Evaluation of a Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis Model for Lyme Disease Prevention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aenishaenslin, Cécile; Gern, Lise; Michel, Pascal; Ravel, André; Hongoh, Valérie; Waaub, Jean-Philippe; Milord, François; Bélanger, Denise

    2015-01-01

    Designing preventive programs relevant to vector-borne diseases such as Lyme disease (LD) can be complex given the need to include multiple issues and perspectives into prioritizing public health actions. A multi-criteria decision aid (MCDA) model was previously used to rank interventions for LD prevention in Quebec, Canada, where the disease is emerging. The aim of the current study was to adapt and evaluate the decision model constructed in Quebec under a different epidemiological context, in Switzerland, where LD has been endemic for the last thirty years. The model adaptation was undertaken with a group of Swiss stakeholders using a participatory approach. The PROMETHEE method was used for multi-criteria analysis. Key elements and results of the MCDA model are described and contrasted with the Quebec model. All criteria and most interventions of the MCDA model developed for LD prevention in Quebec were directly transferable to the Swiss context. Four new decision criteria were added, and the list of proposed interventions was modified. Based on the overall group ranking, interventions targeting human populations were prioritized in the Swiss model, with the top ranked action being the implementation of a large communication campaign. The addition of criteria did not significantly alter the intervention rankings, but increased the capacity of the model to discriminate between highest and lowest ranked interventions. The current study suggests that beyond the specificity of the MCDA models developed for Quebec and Switzerland, their general structure captures the fundamental and common issues that characterize the complexity of vector-borne disease prevention. These results should encourage public health organizations to adapt, use and share MCDA models as an effective and functional approach to enable the integration of multiple perspectives and considerations in the prevention and control of complex public health issues such as Lyme disease or other vector

  20. Tensions between policy and practice: A qualitative analysis of decisions regarding compulsory admission to psychiatric hospital.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fistein, Elizabeth C; Clare, Isabel C H; Redley, Marcus; Holland, Anthony J

    2016-01-01

    The use of detention for psychiatric treatment is widespread and sometimes necessary. International human rights law requires a legal framework to safeguard the rights to liberty and personal integrity by preventing arbitrary detention. However, research suggests that extra-legal factors may influence decisions to detain. This article presents observational and interview data to describe how decisions to detain are made in practice in one jurisdiction (England and Wales) where a tension between policy and practice has been described. The analysis shows that practitioners mould the law into 'practical criteria' that appear to form a set of operational criteria for identifying cases to which the principle of soft paternalism may be applied. Most practitioners also appear willing, albeit often reluctantly, to depart from their usual reliance on the principle of soft paternalism and authorise detention of people with the capacity to refuse treatment, in order to prevent serious harm. We propose a potential resolution for the tension between policy and practice: two separate legal frameworks to authorise detention, one with a suitable test of capacity, used to enact soft paternalism, and the other to provide legal justification for detention for psychiatric treatment of the small number of people who retain decision-making capacity but nonetheless choose to place others at risk by refusing treatment. This separation of detention powers into two systems, according to the principle that justifies the use of detention would be intellectually coherent, consistent with human rights instruments and, being consistent with the apparent moral sentiments of practitioners, less prone to idiosyncratic interpretations in practice. PMID:27062108

  1. Supporting ALARP decision-making by cost benefit analysis and multi-attribute utility theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Current regulation in the UK and elsewhere specify upper and target risk limits for the operation of nuclear plant in terms of frequencies of various kinds of accidents and accidental releases per annum. 'As low as reasonably practicable' (ALARP) arguments are used to justify the acceptance or rejection of policies that lead to risk changes between these limits. We assess the suitability of cost-benefit analysis (CBA) and multi-attribute utility theory (MAUT) for performing ALARP ('as low as reasonably possible') assessments, in particular within the nuclear industry. Four problems stand out in current CBA applications to ALARP, concerning the determination of prices of safety gains or detriments, the valuation of group and individual risk, calculations using 'disproportionality', and the use of discounting to trade off risks through time. This last point has received less attention in the past but is important because of the growing interest in risk-informed regulation in which policies extend over several timeframes and distribute the risk unevenly over these, or in policies that lead to a non-uniform risk within a single timeframe (such as maintenance policies). We discuss the problems associated with giving quantitative support to such decisions. We argue that multi-attribute utility methods (MAUT) provide an alternative methodology to CBA which enable the four problems described above to be addressed in a more satisfactory way. Through sensitivity analysis MAUT can address the perceptions of all stakeholder groups, facilitating constructive discussion and elucidating the key points of disagreement. We also argue that by being explicitly subjective it provides an open, auditable and clear analysis in contrast to the illusory objectivity of CBA. CBA seeks to justify a decision by using a common basis for weights (prices), while MAUT recognizes that different parties may want to give different valuations. It then allows the analyst to explore the ways in which

  2. Motivational factors influencing the homeowners’ decisions between residential heating systems: An empirical analysis for Germany

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heating demand accounts for a large fraction of the overall energy demand of private households in Germany. A better understanding of the adoption and diffusion of energy-efficient and renewables-based residential heating systems (RHS) is of high policy relevance, particularly against the background of climate change, security of energy supply and increasing energy prices. In this paper, we explore the multi-dimensionality of the homeowners’ motivation to decide between competing RHS. A questionnaire survey (N=2440) conducted in 2010 among homeowners who had recently installed a RHS provides the empirical foundation. Principal component analysis shows that 25 items capturing different adoption motivations can be grouped around six dimensions: (1) cost aspects, (2) general attitude towards the RHS, (3) government grant, (4) reactions to external threats (i.e., environmental or energy supply security considerations), (5) comfort considerations, and (6) influence of peers. Moreover, a cluster analysis with the identified motivational factors as segmentation variables reveals three adopter types: (1) the convenience-oriented, (2) the consequences-aware, and (3) the multilaterally-motivated RHS adopter. Finally, we show that the influence of the motivational factors on the adoption decision also differs by certain characteristics of the homeowner and features of the home. - Highlights: ► Study of the multi-dimensionality of the motivation to adopt residential heating systems (RHS). ► Principal component and cluster analysis are applied to representative survey data for Germany. ► Motivation has six dimensions, including rational decision-making and emotional factors. ► Adoption motivation differs by certain characteristics of the homeowner and of the home. ► Many adopters are driven by existing habits and perceptions about the convenience of the RHS

  3. Manager’s decision-making in organizations –empirical analysis of bureaucratic vs. learning approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jana Frenová

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available The paper is focused on the study of manager’s decision-making with respect to the basic model of learning organization, presented by P. Senge as a system model of management. On one hand, the empirical research was conducted in connection with key dimensions of organizational learning such as: 1. system thinking, 2. personal mastery, 3. mental models, 4. team learning, 5. building shared vision and 6. dynamics causes. On the other hand, the research was connected with the analysis of the bureaucratic logic of decision-making process, characterized by non-functional stability, inflexibility, individualism, power, authority and hierarchy, centralization, vagueness, fragmentariness. The objective of the research was to analyse to what extent manager’s decision–making is based on bureaucratic tools or organizational learning in either complex problem-solving or non-problemsolving decision-making. (MANOVA, method of the repeated measure, intersubject factor – situation: 1. non problematic, 2. problematic. The conclusion of analysis is that there are significant differences in character of solving of problem situation and non-problem situation decision-making: the bureaucratic attributes of decision-making are more intensive in problematic situations while learning approach is more actual in non-problematic situations. The results of our analysis have shown that managers who apply the learning organization attributes in their decision-making. are more successful in problem-solving.

  4. How accurate are interpretations of curriculum-based measurement progress monitoring data? Visual analysis versus decision rules.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Norman, Ethan R; Christ, Theodore J

    2016-10-01

    Curriculum based measurement of oral reading (CBM-R) is used to monitor the effects of academic interventions for individual students. Decisions to continue, modify, or terminate these interventions are made by interpreting time series CBM-R data. Such interpretation is founded upon visual analysis or the application of decision rules. The purpose of this study was to compare the accuracy of visual analysis and decision rules. Visual analysts interpreted 108 CBM-R progress monitoring graphs one of three ways: (a) without graphic aids, (b) with a goal line, or (c) with a goal line and a trend line. Graphs differed along three dimensions, including trend magnitude, variability of observations, and duration of data collection. Automated trend line and data point decision rules were also applied to each graph. Inferential analyses permitted the estimation of the probability of a correct decision (i.e., the student is improving - continue the intervention, or the student is not improving - discontinue the intervention) for each evaluation method as a function of trend magnitude, variability of observations, and duration of data collection. All evaluation methods performed better when students made adequate progress. Visual analysis and decision rules performed similarly when observations were less variable. Results suggest that educators should collect data for more than six weeks, take steps to control measurement error, and visually analyze graphs when data are variable. Implications for practice and research are discussed.

  5. How accurate are interpretations of curriculum-based measurement progress monitoring data? Visual analysis versus decision rules.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Norman, Ethan R; Christ, Theodore J

    2016-10-01

    Curriculum based measurement of oral reading (CBM-R) is used to monitor the effects of academic interventions for individual students. Decisions to continue, modify, or terminate these interventions are made by interpreting time series CBM-R data. Such interpretation is founded upon visual analysis or the application of decision rules. The purpose of this study was to compare the accuracy of visual analysis and decision rules. Visual analysts interpreted 108 CBM-R progress monitoring graphs one of three ways: (a) without graphic aids, (b) with a goal line, or (c) with a goal line and a trend line. Graphs differed along three dimensions, including trend magnitude, variability of observations, and duration of data collection. Automated trend line and data point decision rules were also applied to each graph. Inferential analyses permitted the estimation of the probability of a correct decision (i.e., the student is improving - continue the intervention, or the student is not improving - discontinue the intervention) for each evaluation method as a function of trend magnitude, variability of observations, and duration of data collection. All evaluation methods performed better when students made adequate progress. Visual analysis and decision rules performed similarly when observations were less variable. Results suggest that educators should collect data for more than six weeks, take steps to control measurement error, and visually analyze graphs when data are variable. Implications for practice and research are discussed. PMID:27586069

  6. Use of multi-criteria decision analysis in public bidding processes: a case study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    André Andrade Longaray

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Institutions of Higher Education in Brazil (IFES play an important role in the country’s social and scientific development. Focused mainly on teaching, research and extension activities, the IFES are backed by support foundations aimed to the management of financial, human and material resources. Characterized as public bodies, the support foundations are governed by Law no 8.666/93 in what concerns the procurement of goods and services. Therefore, the present study is aimed to develop a model to assist the managers of such foundations in the selection of suppliers to participate in bidding processes that use invitation for bids. Therefore, we conducted a case study in one of the 55 foundations that support Brazilian federal universities. The intervention tool used was the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP. Firstly, we established the hierarchy of criteria for problem-solving. Then, a paired comparison was made between criteria for the same level. Subsequently, the consistency analysis of comparison matrices was verified. Finally, the relative priorities of each criterion were obtained and the objective function of the model was constructed. The model was tested through the assessment of the performance of three potential suppliers of IT equipment, and the result was legitimized by decision makers who found the instrument a valid tool to aid in making decisions on supplier selection for the foundation.

  7. A Multi—Criteria Decision Making Procedured for the Analysis of an Energy System

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Ming-ShanZhu; Bu-XuanWang; 等

    1992-01-01

    In the course of improving and/or designing an energy system,either purely economic criteria,although the overriding criteria,or purely energy-based criteria,although the emphasized criteria,can not separately handle real-world situations in a satisfactory manner,The econmic effectiveness and the energy efficiency must be considered simultaneously to demonstrate the confilicting and non-commensurable characteristics of these multiple criteria.An iterative and interactive approach to formulating and solving non-linear multi-criteria decision making problems for the analysis of an energy system is proposed.It allows the decision maker(DM) to learn from the available information and dymamically change his mind.Criterion functioins can be treated as objective functions,as constraints of as something in between by the DM.After a series of iterations and interactive procedures,a preferred solution can be made among the non-inferior sets considering thermodymamic criteria and economic creteria simultaneously,a simple example for design of a hest exchanger is used to illustrate the procedure.

  8. Analysis for making a regulatory decision to equipment of industrial gammagraphy in Argentin

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Industrial gammagraphy is a practice widely used as a nondestructive testing technique in Argentina. Experience worldwide has shown the need for an improvement in the intrinsic safety of the equipment used in this lab. In response to this reason, the board of the Nuclear Regulatory Authority (ARN) has considered a proposal to withdraw service movement and much of the equipment inventory scan belonging to industrial facilities nationwide. The main objective of this paper is to present the results of the analysis performed to support the above proposal. The main elements of evaluation can be summarized as follows: I) the teams that do not conform to international recommendations regarding compliance with key safety requirements of international standards such as ISO 3999:2004 (E) Radiation protection - Industrial Apparatus for gamma radiography - Specifications for performance, design and tests ; II) the decision by some manufacturers to discontinue production of certain models of equipment and the provision of spare parts, and III) the validity of certificates bulk type B (U) for transport. In conclusion, it highlights the importance of a regulatory decision supplementary to the Standard AR 7.9.1 concerning the operation of scan equipment industry, based on current international recommendations and Argentina's commitment to good practice and safety culture which can lead to a positive impact on radiation safety in this art

  9. Multi-criteria decision analysis of concentrated solar power with thermal energy storage and dry cooling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klein, Sharon J W

    2013-12-17

    Decisions about energy backup and cooling options for parabolic trough (PT) concentrated solar power have technical, economic, and environmental implications. Although PT development has increased rapidly in recent years, energy policies do not address backup or cooling option requirements, and very few studies directly compare the diverse implications of these options. This is the first study to compare the annual capacity factor, levelized cost of energy (LCOE), water consumption, land use, and life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of PT with different backup options (minimal backup (MB), thermal energy storage (TES), and fossil fuel backup (FF)) and different cooling options (wet (WC) and dry (DC). Multicriteria decision analysis was used with five preference scenarios to identify the highest-scoring energy backup-cooling combination for each preference scenario. MB-WC had the highest score in the Economic and Climate Change-Economy scenarios, while FF-DC and FF-WC had the highest scores in the Equal and Availability scenarios, respectively. TES-DC had the highest score for the Environmental scenario. DC was ranked 1-3 in all preference scenarios. Direct comparisons between GHG emissions and LCOE and between GHG emissions and land use suggest a preference for TES if backup is require for PT plants to compete with baseload generators. PMID:24245524

  10. Response surface method using grey relational analysis for decision making in weapon system selection

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Peng Wang; Peng Meng; Baowei Song

    2014-01-01

    A proper weapon system is very important for a na-tional defense system. General y, it means selecting the optimal weapon system among many alternatives, which is a multiple-attribute decision making (MADM) problem. This paper proposes a new mathematical model based on the response surface method (RSM) and the grey relational analysis (GRA). RSM is used to obtain the experimental points and analyze the factors that have a significant impact on the selection results. GRA is used to an-alyze the trend relationship between alternatives and reference series. And then an RSM model is obtained, which can be used to calculate al alternatives and obtain ranking results. A real world application is introduced to il ustrate the utilization of the model for the weapon selection problem. The results show that this model can be used to help decision-makers to make a quick comparison of alternatives and select a proper weapon system from multiple alternatives, which is an effective and adaptable method for solving the weapon system selection problem.

  11. Decision Process Analysis on Project Priority Strategy: A Case Study of an ICT Design Firm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vincent F. Yu

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Project priority strategy is the benchmarking of a corporate operation management strategy and in particular is used by a projects-based research and development firm in the complex competence environment of the information and communication technology (ICT industry. This research takes the variables of external environments and internal resources into account for a firm’s market, technology, and finance assets in order to present a decision process on a project priority strategy. This empirical study also addresses the key factors of the interaction between business on a project development’s supply chain: clients, the examined firm, and suppliers. The findings indicate that a profit-driven project can dominate the firm’s strategic operations and management from the resource-based view and analytic hierarchy process technique perspectives. At the same time, the analysis results contribute significant values to project decision management, which is highly recommended for small-medium enterprises conducting product/project development, project portfolio management, and strategic business management.

  12. Early Building Design - Informed decision-making by exploring multidimensional design space using sensitivity analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Østergård, Torben; Jensen, Rasmus Lund; Maagaard, Steffen

    2016-01-01

    This paper describes a novel approach to explore a multidimensional design space and guide multi-actor decision making in the design of sustainable buildings. The aim is to provide proactive and holistic guidance of the design team. We propose to perform exhaustive Monte Carlo simulations in an i...... to remedy unwanted output changes. The proposed methodology has been developed and tested through real building cases using a normative model to assess energy demand, thermal comfort, and daylight.......This paper describes a novel approach to explore a multidimensional design space and guide multi-actor decision making in the design of sustainable buildings. The aim is to provide proactive and holistic guidance of the design team. We propose to perform exhaustive Monte Carlo simulations...... in an iterative design approach that consists of two steps: 1) preparation by modeler, and 2) multi-collaborator meeting. In the preparation phase, the simulation modeler performs Morris sensitivity analysis to fixate insignificant model inputs and to identify non-linearity and interaction effects. Next...

  13. Brain networks of perceptual decision-making: an fMRI ALE meta-analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Max C Keuken; Müller-Axt, Christa; Langner, Robert; Eickhoff, Simon B.; Birte U. Forstmann; Neumann, Jane

    2014-01-01

    In the recent perceptual decision-making literature, a fronto-parietal network is typically reported to primarily represent the neural substrate of human perceptual decision-making. However, the view that only cortical areas are involved in perceptual decision-making has been challenged by several neurocomputational models which all argue that the basal ganglia play an essential role in perceptual decisions. To consolidate these different views, we conducted an Activation Likelihood Estimatio...

  14. Safety margins of operating reactors. Analysis of uncertainties and implications for decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maintaining safety in the design and operation of nuclear power plants (NPPs) is a very important task under the conditions of a challenging environment, affected by the deregulated electricity market and implementation of risk informed regulations. In Member States, advanced computer codes are widely used as safety analysis tools in the framework of licensing of new NPP projects, safety upgrading programmes of existing NPPs, periodic safety reviews, renewal of operating licences, use of the safety margins for reactor power uprating, better utilization of nuclear fuel and higher operational flexibility, for justification of lifetime extensions, development of new emergency operating procedures, analysis of operational events, and development of accident management programmes. The issue of inadequate quality of safety analysis is becoming important due to a general tendency to use advanced tools for better establishment and utilization of safety margins, while the existence of such margins assure that NPPs operate safely in all modes of operation and at all times. The most important safety margins relate to physical barriers against release of radioactive material, such as fuel matrix and fuel cladding, reactor coolant system boundary, and the containment. Typically, safety margins are determined with use of computational tools for safety analysis. Advanced best estimate computer codes are suggested e.g. in the IAEA Safety Guide on Safety Assessment and Verification for Nuclear Power Plants to be used for current safety analysis. Such computer codes require their careful application to avoid unjustified reduction in robustness of the reactor safety. The issue of uncertainties in safety analyses and their impact on evaluation of safety margins is addressed in a number of IAEA guidance documents, in particular in the Safety Report on Accident Analysis for Nuclear Power Plants. It is also discussed in various technical meetings and workshops devoted to this area. The

  15. Climate change, land slide risks and sustainable development, risk analysis and decision support process tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andersson-sköld, Y. B.; Tremblay, M.

    2011-12-01

    aspects in the decision making process on adaptation measures has been developed and is currently being tested in municipalities including central Gothenburg, and smaller municipalities in Sweden and Norway. The tool is a matrix based decision support tool (MDST) aiming for encoring discussion among experts and stakeholders. The first steps in the decision process include identification, inventory and assessment of the potential impacts of climate change such as landslides (or other events or actions). These steps are also included in general technical/physical risk and vulnerability analyses such as the risk analysis of the Göta älv valley. The MDST also includes further subsequent steps of the risk management process, and the full sequence of the MDST includes risk identification, risk specification, risk assessment, identification of measures, impact analysis of measures including an assessment of environmental, social and economical costs and benefits, a weight process and visualisation of the result. Here the MDST with some examples from the methodology for the Göta river valley analysis and the risk mitigation analysis from Sweden and Norway will be presented.

  16. Strategic Decision-Making by Deans in Academic Health Centers: A Framework Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keeney, Brianne

    2012-01-01

    This study examines strategic decision-making at the college level in relation to seven theoretical frames. Strategic decisions are those made by top executives, have wide-ranging influence throughout the organization, affect the long-term future of the organization, and are connected to the external environment. The seven decision-making frames…

  17. Strategic Planning and Decision Analysis: Presentation of the COSIMA Software System

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    This paper presents a composite decision support system, COSIMA, programmed in MS Excel. COSIMA provides assistance to the decision maker as concerns complex decisions and strategic planning. The COSIMA software is designed as interconnected modules which make it possible to conduct Cost...

  18. Advances in intelligent analysis of medical data and decision support systems

    CERN Document Server

    Iantovics, Barna

    2013-01-01

    This volume is a result of the fruitful and vivid discussions during the MedDecSup'2012 International Workshop bringing together a relevant body of knowledge, and new developments in the increasingly important field of medical informatics. This carefully edited book presents new ideas aimed at the development of intelligent processing of various kinds of medical information and the perfection of the contemporary computer systems for medical decision support. The book presents advances of the medical information systems for intelligent archiving, processing, analysis and search-by-content which will improve the quality of the medical services for every patient and of the global healthcare system. The book combines in a synergistic way theoretical developments with the practicability of the approaches developed and presents the last developments and achievements in  medical informatics to a broad range of readers: engineers, mathematicians, physicians, and PhD students.

  19. Dynamic Resource Allocation in Computing Clouds through Distributed Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis using PROMETHEE Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chandra Mouli Venkata Srinivas Akana

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available In computing clouds, it is desirable to avoid wasting resources as a result of under-utilization and to avoid lengthy response times as a result of over-utilization. In this technical report, we investigate a new approach for dynamic autonomous resource management in computing clouds. The main contribution of this work is two-fold. First, we adopt a distributed architecture where resource management has decomposed into independent tasks, each of which is performed by Autonomous Node Agents that are tightly coupled with the physical machines in a data center. Second, the Autonomous Node Agents carry out configurations in parallel through Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis using the PROMETHEE method. Simulation results show that the proposed approach is promising in terms of scalability, feasibility and flexibility.

  20. Independent component analysis and decision trees for ECG holter recording de-noising.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jakub Kuzilek

    Full Text Available We have developed a method focusing on ECG signal de-noising using Independent component analysis (ICA. This approach combines JADE source separation and binary decision tree for identification and subsequent ECG noise removal. In order to to test the efficiency of this method comparison to standard filtering a wavelet- based de-noising method was used. Freely data available at Physionet medical data storage were evaluated. Evaluation criteria was root mean square error (RMSE between original ECG and filtered data contaminated with artificial noise. Proposed algorithm achieved comparable result in terms of standard noises (power line interference, base line wander, EMG, but noticeably significantly better results were achieved when uncommon noise (electrode cable movement artefact were compared.

  1. Multicriteria Decision Analysis of Material Selection of High Energy Performance Residential Building

    Science.gov (United States)

    Čuláková, Monika; Vilčeková, Silvia; Katunská, Jana; Krídlová Burdová, Eva

    2013-11-01

    In world with limited amount of energy sources and with serious environmental pollution, interest in comparing the environmental embodied impacts of buildings using different structure systems and alternative building materials will be increased. This paper shows the significance of life cycle energy and carbon perspective and the material selection in reducing energy consumption and emissions production in the built environment. The study evaluates embodied environmental impacts of nearly zero energy residential structures. The environmental assessment uses framework of LCA within boundary: cradle to gate. Designed alternative scenarios of material compositions are also assessed in terms of energy effectiveness through selected thermal-physical parameters. This study uses multi-criteria decision analysis for making clearer selection between alternative scenarios. The results of MCDA show that alternative E from materials on nature plant base (wood, straw bales, massive wood panel) present possible way to sustainable perspective of nearly zero energy houses in Slovak republic

  2. Decision analysis and drug development portfolio management: uncovering the real options value of your projects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosati, Nicoletta

    2002-04-01

    Project selection and portfolio management are particularly challenging in the pharmaceutical industry due to the high risk - high stake nature of the drug development process. In the recent years, scholars and industry experts have agreed that traditional Net-Present-Value evaluation of the projects fails to capture the value of managerial flexibility, and encouraged adopting a real options approach to recover the missed value. In this paper, we take a closer look at the drug development process and at the indices currently used to rank projects. We discuss the economic value of information and of real options arising in drug development and present decision analysis as an ideal framework for the implementation of real options valuation. PMID:19807328

  3. Flood Susceptibility Modeling: A Geo-spatial Technology Multi-criteria Decision Analysis Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dano Umar Lawal

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Understanding the surface and subsurface condition can immensely enhance the availability of accurate flood susceptibility maps for effective management of flood catastrophe. In this study, remote sensing and Geographic Information System-based (GIS-based Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA based on experts’ opinions has been adopted to carry out the preparedness phase of flood management. Establishing a link between the surface/subsurface conditions and flood occurrence is the major objective of this study. The surface/subsurface investigations showed that the lowland areas of the study area are characterized by the presence of flat slope, alluvium deposits and low humid clay soil composition. The GIS-based Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP model was adopted in simulating the flood susceptible zones map of the study area. Finally, the result revealed that flood generation in the area immensely relied on slope, geology and soil type along with rainfall as the key catalyst.

  4. A multi-criteria decision analysis perspective on the health economic evaluation of medical interventions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Postmus, Douwe; Tervonen, Tommi; van Valkenhoef, Gert; Hillege, Hans L; Buskens, Erik

    2014-09-01

    A standard practice in health economic evaluation is to monetize health effects by assuming a certain societal willingness-to-pay per unit of health gain. Although the resulting net monetary benefit (NMB) is easy to compute, the use of a single willingness-to-pay threshold assumes expressibility of the health effects on a single non-monetary scale. To relax this assumption, this article proves that the NMB framework is a special case of the more general stochastic multi-criteria acceptability analysis (SMAA) method. Specifically, as SMAA does not restrict the number of criteria to two and also does not require the marginal rates of substitution to be constant, there are problem instances for which the use of this more general method may result in a better understanding of the trade-offs underlying the reimbursement decision-making problem. This is illustrated by applying both methods in a case study related to infertility treatment.

  5. Decision tree analysis of factors influencing rainfall-related building damage

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. H. Spekkers

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Flood damage prediction models are essential building blocks in flood risk assessments. Little research has been dedicated so far to damage of small-scale urban floods caused by heavy rainfall, while there is a need for reliable damage models for this flood type among insurers and water authorities. The aim of this paper is to investigate a wide range of damage-influencing factors and their relationships with rainfall-related damage, using decision tree analysis. For this, district-aggregated claim data from private property insurance companies in the Netherlands were analysed, for the period of 1998–2011. The databases include claims of water-related damage, for example, damages related to rainwater intrusion through roofs and pluvial flood water entering buildings at ground floor. Response variables being modelled are average claim size and claim frequency, per district per day. The set of predictors include rainfall-related variables derived from weather radar images, topographic variables from a digital terrain model, building-related variables and socioeconomic indicators of households. Analyses were made separately for property and content damage claim data. Results of decision tree analysis show that claim frequency is most strongly associated with maximum hourly rainfall intensity, followed by real estate value, ground floor area, household income, season (property data only, buildings age (property data only, ownership structure (content data only and fraction of low-rise buildings (content data only. It was not possible to develop statistically acceptable trees for average claim size, which suggest that variability in average claim size is related to explanatory variables that cannot be defined at the district scale. Cross-validation results show that decision trees were able to predict 22–26% of variance in claim frequency, which is considerably better compared to results from global multiple regression models (11–18% of

  6. Decision tree analysis of factors influencing rainfall-related building damage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spekkers, M. H.; Kok, M.; Clemens, F. H. L. R.; ten Veldhuis, J. A. E.

    2014-04-01

    Flood damage prediction models are essential building blocks in flood risk assessments. Little research has been dedicated so far to damage of small-scale urban floods caused by heavy rainfall, while there is a need for reliable damage models for this flood type among insurers and water authorities. The aim of this paper is to investigate a wide range of damage-influencing factors and their relationships with rainfall-related damage, using decision tree analysis. For this, district-aggregated claim data from private property insurance companies in the Netherlands were analysed, for the period of 1998-2011. The databases include claims of water-related damage, for example, damages related to rainwater intrusion through roofs and pluvial flood water entering buildings at ground floor. Response variables being modelled are average claim size and claim frequency, per district per day. The set of predictors include rainfall-related variables derived from weather radar images, topographic variables from a digital terrain model, building-related variables and socioeconomic indicators of households. Analyses were made separately for property and content damage claim data. Results of decision tree analysis show that claim frequency is most strongly associated with maximum hourly rainfall intensity, followed by real estate value, ground floor area, household income, season (property data only), buildings age (property data only), ownership structure (content data only) and fraction of low-rise buildings (content data only). It was not possible to develop statistically acceptable trees for average claim size, which suggest that variability in average claim size is related to explanatory variables that cannot be defined at the district scale. Cross-validation results show that decision trees were able to predict 22-26% of variance in claim frequency, which is considerably better compared to results from global multiple regression models (11-18% of variance explained). Still, a

  7. Decision-tree analysis of factors influencing rainfall-related building structure and content damage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spekkers, M. H.; Kok, M.; Clemens, F. H. L. R.; ten Veldhuis, J. A. E.

    2014-09-01

    Flood-damage prediction models are essential building blocks in flood risk assessments. So far, little research has been dedicated to damage from small-scale urban floods caused by heavy rainfall, while there is a need for reliable damage models for this flood type among insurers and water authorities. The aim of this paper is to investigate a wide range of damage-influencing factors and their relationships with rainfall-related damage, using decision-tree analysis. For this, district-aggregated claim data from private property insurance companies in the Netherlands were analysed, for the period 1998-2011. The databases include claims of water-related damage (for example, damages related to rainwater intrusion through roofs and pluvial flood water entering buildings at ground floor). Response variables being modelled are average claim size and claim frequency, per district, per day. The set of predictors include rainfall-related variables derived from weather radar images, topographic variables from a digital terrain model, building-related variables and socioeconomic indicators of households. Analyses were made separately for property and content damage claim data. Results of decision-tree analysis show that claim frequency is most strongly associated with maximum hourly rainfall intensity, followed by real estate value, ground floor area, household income, season (property data only), buildings age (property data only), a fraction of homeowners (content data only), a and fraction of low-rise buildings (content data only). It was not possible to develop statistically acceptable trees for average claim size. It is recommended to investigate explanations for the failure to derive models. These require the inclusion of other explanatory factors that were not used in the present study, an investigation of the variability in average claim size at different spatial scales, and the collection of more detailed insurance data that allows one to distinguish between the

  8. Propagating Water Quality Analysis Uncertainty Into Resource Management Decisions Through Probabilistic Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gronewold, A. D.; Wolpert, R. L.; Reckhow, K. H.

    2007-12-01

    Most probable number (MPN) and colony-forming-unit (CFU) are two estimates of fecal coliform bacteria concentration commonly used as measures of water quality in United States shellfish harvesting waters. The MPN is the maximum likelihood estimate (or MLE) of the true fecal coliform concentration based on counts of non-sterile tubes in serial dilution of a sample aliquot, indicating bacterial metabolic activity. The CFU is the MLE of the true fecal coliform concentration based on the number of bacteria colonies emerging on a growth plate after inoculation from a sample aliquot. Each estimating procedure has intrinsic variability and is subject to additional uncertainty arising from minor variations in experimental protocol. Several versions of each procedure (using different sized aliquots or different numbers of tubes, for example) are in common use, each with its own levels of probabilistic and experimental error and uncertainty. It has been observed empirically that the MPN procedure is more variable than the CFU procedure, and that MPN estimates are somewhat higher on average than CFU estimates, on split samples from the same water bodies. We construct a probabilistic model that provides a clear theoretical explanation for the observed variability in, and discrepancy between, MPN and CFU measurements. We then explore how this variability and uncertainty might propagate into shellfish harvesting area management decisions through a two-phased modeling strategy. First, we apply our probabilistic model in a simulation-based analysis of future water quality standard violation frequencies under alternative land use scenarios, such as those evaluated under guidelines of the total maximum daily load (TMDL) program. Second, we apply our model to water quality data from shellfish harvesting areas which at present are closed (either conditionally or permanently) to shellfishing, to determine if alternative laboratory analysis procedures might have led to different

  9. Analysis of decision fusion algorithms in handling uncertainties for integrated health monitoring systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zein-Sabatto, Saleh; Mikhail, Maged; Bodruzzaman, Mohammad; DeSimio, Martin; Derriso, Mark; Behbahani, Alireza

    2012-06-01

    It has been widely accepted that data fusion and information fusion methods can improve the accuracy and robustness of decision-making in structural health monitoring systems. It is arguably true nonetheless, that decision-level is equally beneficial when applied to integrated health monitoring systems. Several decisions at low-levels of abstraction may be produced by different decision-makers; however, decision-level fusion is required at the final stage of the process to provide accurate assessment about the health of the monitored system as a whole. An example of such integrated systems with complex decision-making scenarios is the integrated health monitoring of aircraft. Thorough understanding of the characteristics of the decision-fusion methodologies is a crucial step for successful implementation of such decision-fusion systems. In this paper, we have presented the major information fusion methodologies reported in the literature, i.e., probabilistic, evidential, and artificial intelligent based methods. The theoretical basis and characteristics of these methodologies are explained and their performances are analyzed. Second, candidate methods from the above fusion methodologies, i.e., Bayesian, Dempster-Shafer, and fuzzy logic algorithms are selected and their applications are extended to decisions fusion. Finally, fusion algorithms are developed based on the selected fusion methods and their performance are tested on decisions generated from synthetic data and from experimental data. Also in this paper, a modeling methodology, i.e. cloud model, for generating synthetic decisions is presented and used. Using the cloud model, both types of uncertainties; randomness and fuzziness, involved in real decision-making are modeled. Synthetic decisions are generated with an unbiased process and varying interaction complexities among decisions to provide for fair performance comparison of the selected decision-fusion algorithms. For verification purposes

  10. Neiskorištena raznolikost krumpira, krumpir obojenog mesa i važnost antioksidansa u krumpiru

    OpenAIRE

    Butorac, Ivan

    2008-01-01

    Na iznenađenje mnogih, antioksidansi su obilno sadržani i u krumpiru obojenog mesa (mekote). Općenito uzevši, u krumpiru kao antioksidansi djeluju različiti bioflavonoidi koji meso (mekotu) krumpira boje crveno, ljubičasto, plavo. Gomolji obojenog mesa izvorne su divlje forme u pradomovini krumpira i domaće stanovništvo troši ih od pamtivijeka do danas. Nažalost uglavnom se uzgajaju sorte žutog i rjeđe krem-bijelog i bijelog mesa, a vrlo su rijetke sorte obojenog mesa čije prehrambene vrijedn...

  11. Geology of the Horse Range Mesa quadrangle, Colorado

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cater, Fred W.; Bush, A.L.; Bell, Henry; Withington, C.F.

    1953-01-01

    The Horse Range Mesa quadrangle is one of eighteen 7 1/2-minute quadrangles covering the principal carnotite-producing area of southwestern Colorado. The geology of the quadrangles was mapped by the U.S. Geological Survey for the Atomic Energy Commission as part of a comprehensive study of carnotite deposits. The rocks exposed in the eighteen quadrangles consist of crystalline rocks of pre-Cambrian age and sedimentary rocks that range in age from late Paleozoic to Quaternary. Over much of the area the sedimentary rocks are flat lying, but in places the rocks are disrupted by high-angle faults, and northwest-trending folds. Conspicuous among the folds are large anticlines having cores of intrusive salt and gypsum. Most of the carnotite deposits are confined to the Salt Wash sandstone member of the Jurassic Morrison formation. Within this sandstone, most of the deposits are spottily distributed through an arcuate zone known as the "Uravan Mineral Belt". Individual deposits range in size from irregular masses containing only a few tons of ore to large, tabular masses containing many thousands of tons. The ore consists largely of sandstone selectively impregnated and in part replaced by uranium and vanadium minerals. Most of the deposits appear to be related to certain sedimentary strictures in sandstones of favorable composition.

  12. Optimization and analysis of decision trees and rules: Dynamic programming approach

    KAUST Repository

    Alkhalid, Abdulaziz

    2013-08-01

    This paper is devoted to the consideration of software system Dagger created in KAUST. This system is based on extensions of dynamic programming. It allows sequential optimization of decision trees and rules relative to different cost functions, derivation of relationships between two cost functions (in particular, between number of misclassifications and depth of decision trees), and between cost and uncertainty of decision trees. We describe features of Dagger and consider examples of this systems work on decision tables from UCI Machine Learning Repository. We also use Dagger to compare 16 different greedy algorithms for decision tree construction. © 2013 Taylor and Francis Group, LLC.

  13. Estimation of Groundwater Recharge at Pahute Mesa using the Chloride Mass-Balance Method

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cooper, Clay A [DRI; Hershey, Ronald L [DRI; Healey, John M [DRI; Lyles, Brad F [DRI

    2013-07-01

    Groundwater recharge on Pahute Mesa was estimated using the chloride mass-balance (CMB) method. This method relies on the conservative properties of chloride to trace its movement from the atmosphere as dry- and wet-deposition through the soil zone and ultimately to the saturated zone. Typically, the CMB method assumes no mixing of groundwater with different chloride concentrations; however, because groundwater is thought to flow into Pahute Mesa from valleys north of Pahute Mesa, groundwater flow rates (i.e., underflow) and chloride concentrations from Kawich Valley and Gold Flat were carefully considered. Precipitation was measured with bulk and tipping-bucket precipitation gauges installed for this study at six sites on Pahute Mesa. These data, along with historical precipitation amounts from gauges on Pahute Mesa and estimates from the PRISM model, were evaluated to estimate mean annual precipitation. Chloride deposition from the atmosphere was estimated by analyzing quarterly samples of wet- and dry-deposition for chloride in the bulk gauges and evaluating chloride wet-deposition amounts measured at other locations by the National Atmospheric Deposition Program. Mean chloride concentrations in groundwater were estimated using data from the UGTA Geochemistry Database, data from other reports, and data from samples collected from emplacement boreholes for this study. Calculations were conducted assuming both no underflow and underflow from Kawich Valley and Gold Flat. Model results estimate recharge to be 30 mm/yr with a standard deviation of 18 mm/yr on Pahute Mesa, for elevations >1800 m amsl. These estimates assume Pahute Mesa recharge mixes completely with underflow from Kawich Valley and Gold Flat. The model assumes that precipitation, chloride concentration in bulk deposition, underflow and its chloride concentration, have been constant over the length of time of recharge.

  14. Tunneling characteristics for nm-thick mesas consisting of a few intrinsic Josephson junctions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suzuki, Minoru; Ohmaki, Masayuki; Takemura, Ryota; Hamada, Kenji; Watanabe, Takao; Ota, Kensuke; Kitano, Haruhisa; Maeda, Atsutaka

    2008-10-01

    Very thin mesa structures consisting of a few intrinsic Josephson junctions have been fabricated on single crystal surfaces of Bi2Sr2CaCu2O8+δ. In the fabrication procedure, annealing is conducted after the mesa structure is formed by Ar ion milling. Or, the annealing is skipped and, instead, the electrodes to the mesas have been deposited in vacuum immediately after crystals are cleaved. We have attained both uniform current-voltage (I-V) characteristics and small contact resistances, which are usually difficult to obtain at the same time in the case of nm-thick mesa structures. For the mesas thus fabricated, it is found that the Josephson critical current Jc of the top IJJ (the surface junction) is reduced significantly. The reduction of Jc is more significant when the doping level of the crystal used is lower. We argue that this is due to the proximity efiect of the surface junction, in which the top electrode is in close proximity with the Ag or Au film of a thickness of the order of 300 nm. For mesas obtained by this method, the switching probability distribution has been measured. It is found that when the mesa lateral size is larger than 2 μm the switching is unreproducible and lacking systematic temperature dependence. It is also found that escape temperature Tesc and the standard deviation σ for the switching probability distribution exhibits a large deviation from the Kramers' thermal activation theory. When the lateral size is no larger than 2 μm, the switching probability distribution results show coincidence with the theory in the temperature range from 1.3 K to 5 K. Below 0.5 K, the escape temperature tends to saturate and indicates a crossover near 0.5 K from the thermal activation to the macroscopic quantum tunneling.

  15. ASPECTS OF FINANCIAL EQUILIBRIUM ANALYSIS AND ITS IMPLICATIONS IN MANAGEMENT DECISIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniela Cristina Solomon

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Considering the impact of risk factors in the economic environment, this study provides to all users of financial information a possible pattern for analyzing the financial equilibrium, designed to clarify the importance of dynamic analysis of indicators characterizing the financial equilibrium of an enterprise, expressed on absolute values, especially for managers in decision-making on future work, aimed at achieving pre-established strategic and tactical objectives. Practice has shown that the management cannot be based on intuition and routine but on a scientific analysis, on a thorough knowledge of the existing situation, as well as on the identification of vulnerabilities and opportunities for development. In order to promote a rational policy concerning business growth and achieving economic and financial satisfactory results, the company’s management grants a special importance to the financial diagnosis. The support of financial analysis is the balance sheet that allows developing financial diagnosis on the financial equilibrium conditions and creditworthiness, objectives that allow the evaluation of the independence of the firm and its market value.

  16. Continued investigations of the occurrence of water in Pahute Mesa emplacement holes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hershey, R.L.; Brikowski, T.H.

    1995-04-01

    Periodically, water has been observed in emplacement boreholes drilled for underground testing of nuclear weapons at Pahute Mesa, Nevada Test Site, and is often at levels elevated above the predicted local water table. Water which may provide a means to transport residual radionuclides away from weapon tests may originate as fluids introduced during drilling, from naturally perched groundwater draining into the borehole, or from penetration of the local groundwater table. Lithium-bromide (Li-Br) tracer is being used to evaluate both the origin and movement of these borehole waters. The drilling fluid used to drill the final 100 meters of borehole U-19bh was chemically labeled with LiBr tracer. Lack of significant increase in borehole Br inventory over time indicates that standing water in U-9bh is not returned drilling fluid. Possible sources for the standing water are drilling fluid infiltrated above the bottom 100 in or natural water from a perched or shallower-than-expected saturated zone. The minimum detectable Darcy velocity of water passing through U-19bh is 0.3 m/yr. Borehole U-19bk has a water level approximately 50 in above the predicted pre-drilling water level. Initial water samples were collected from U-19bk to characterize the borehole water quality prior to adding the tracer. The major-ion analytical results of U-19bk along with historical water quality analyses of Water Well 20 and water well UE-19c show that all three waters are similar in character and therefore the water in U-19bk may be either residual drilling fluids originating from Water Well 20 and UE-19c or naturally occurring Pahute Mesa groundwater. LiBr tracer was added to the U-19bk borehole and samples for tracer analysis were collected one month later. For the one month period, no detectable loss of Br was observed. Over this short time period, the minimum detectable Darcy velocity is 10.6 m/yr.

  17. Groundwater, surface-water, and water-chemistry data, Black Mesa area, northeastern Arizona—2012–2013

    Science.gov (United States)

    Macy, Jamie P.; Truini, Margot

    2016-03-02

    -level change for 34 wells in both the confined and unconfined areas was -13.5 feet; the median water-level changes were -0.8 feet for 16 wells measured in the unconfined areas and -51.0 feet for 16 wells measured in the confined area.Spring flow was measured at four springs in 2013; Burro, Unnamed Spring near Dennehotso, Moenkopi School, and Pasture Canyon Springs. Flow fluctuated during the period of record for Burro and Unnamed Springs near Dennehotso, but a decreasing trend was apparent at Moenkopi School Spring and Pasture Canyon Spring. Discharge at Burro Spring has remained relatively constant since it was first measured in the 1980s and discharge at Unnamed Spring near Dennehotso has fluctuated for the period of record at each spring. Trend analysis for discharge at Moenkopi School and Pasture Canyon Springs showed a decreasing trend.Continuous records of surface-water discharge in the Black Mesa area were collected from streamflow-gaging stations at the following sites: Moenkopi Wash at Moenkopi 09401260 (1976 to 2013), Dinnebito Wash near Sand Springs 09401110 (1993 to 2013), Polacca Wash near Second Mesa 09400568 (1994 to 2013), and Pasture Canyon Springs 09401265 (2004 to 2013). Median winter flows (November through February) from these sites for each water year were used as an index of the amount of groundwater discharge. For the period of record of each streamflow-gaging station, the median winter flows have generally remained constant, which suggests no change in groundwater discharge.In 2013, water samples collected from 12 wells and 4 springs in the Black Mesa area were analyzed for selected chemical constituents, and the results were compared with previous analyses. Concentrations of dissolved solids, chloride, and sulfate have varied at all 12 wells for the period of record, but neither increasing nor decreasing trends over time were found. Dissolved solids, chloride, and sulfate concentrations increased at Moenkopi School Spring during the more than 13 years

  18. Groundwater, surface-water, and water-chemistry data, Black Mesa area, northeastern Arizona—2012–2013

    Science.gov (United States)

    Macy, Jamie P.; Truini, Margot

    2016-03-02

    -level change for 34 wells in both the confined and unconfined areas was -13.5 feet; the median water-level changes were -0.8 feet for 16 wells measured in the unconfined areas and -51.0 feet for 16 wells measured in the confined area.Spring flow was measured at four springs in 2013; Burro, Unnamed Spring near Dennehotso, Moenkopi School, and Pasture Canyon Springs. Flow fluctuated during the period of record for Burro and Unnamed Springs near Dennehotso, but a decreasing trend was apparent at Moenkopi School Spring and Pasture Canyon Spring. Discharge at Burro Spring has remained relatively constant since it was first measured in the 1980s and discharge at Unnamed Spring near Dennehotso has fluctuated for the period of record at each spring. Trend analysis for discharge at Moenkopi School and Pasture Canyon Springs showed a decreasing trend.Continuous records of surface-water discharge in the Black Mesa area were collected from streamflow-gaging stations at the following sites: Moenkopi Wash at Moenkopi 09401260 (1976 to 2013), Dinnebito Wash near Sand Springs 09401110 (1993 to 2013), Polacca Wash near Second Mesa 09400568 (1994 to 2013), and Pasture Canyon Springs 09401265 (2004 to 2013). Median winter flows (November through February) from these sites for each water year were used as an index of the amount of groundwater discharge. For the period of record of each streamflow-gaging station, the median winter flows have generally remained constant, which suggests no change in groundwater discharge.In 2013, water samples collected from 12 wells and 4 springs in the Black Mesa area were analyzed for selected chemical constituents, and the results were compared with previous analyses. Concentrations of dissolved solids, chloride, and sulfate have varied at all 12 wells for the period of record, but neither increasing nor decreasing trends over time were found. Dissolved solids, chloride, and sulfate concentrations increased at Moenkopi School Spring during the more than 13 years

  19. The Application of Climate Risk Informed Decision Analysis to the Ioland Water Treatment Plant in Lusaka, Zambia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kucharski, John; Tkach, Mark; Olszewski, Jennifer; Chaudhry, Rabia; Mendoza, Guillermo

    2016-04-01

    This presentation demonstrates the application of Climate Risk Informed Decision Analysis (CRIDA) at Zambia's principal water treatment facility, The Iolanda Water Treatment Plant. The water treatment plant is prone to unacceptable failures during periods of low hydropower production at the Kafue Gorge Dam Hydroelectric Power Plant. The case study explores approaches of increasing the water treatment plant's ability to deliver acceptable levels of service under the range of current and potential future climate states. The objective of the study is to investigate alternative investments to build system resilience that might have been informed by the CRIDA process, and to evaluate the extra resource requirements by a bilateral donor agency to implement the CRIDA process. The case study begins with an assessment of the water treatment plant's vulnerability to climate change. It does so by following general principals described in "Confronting Climate Uncertainty in Water Resource Planning and Project Design: the Decision Tree Framework". By utilizing relatively simple bootstrapping methods a range of possible future climate states is generated while avoiding the use of more complex and costly downscaling methodologies; that are beyond the budget and technical capacity of many teams. The resulting climate vulnerabilities and uncertainty in the climate states that produce them are analyzed as part of a "Level of Concern" analysis. CRIDA principals are then applied to this Level of Concern analysis in order to arrive at a set of actionable water management decisions. The principal goals of water resource management is to transform variable, uncertain hydrology into dependable services (e.g. water supply, flood risk reduction, ecosystem benefits, hydropower production, etc…). Traditional approaches to climate adaptation require the generation of predicted future climate states but do little guide decision makers how this information should impact decision making. In

  20. RiskChanges Spatial Decision Support system for the analysis of changing multi-hazard risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Westen, Cees; Zhang, Kaixi; Bakker, Wim; Andrejchenko, Vera; Berlin, Julian; Olyazadeh, Roya; Cristal, Irina

    2015-04-01

    Within the framework of the EU FP7 Marie Curie Project CHANGES and the EU FP7 Copernicus project INCREO a spatial decision support system was developed with the aim to analyse the effect of risk reduction planning alternatives on reducing the risk now and in the future, and support decision makers in selecting the best alternatives. Central to the SDSS are the stakeholders. The envisaged users of the system are organizations involved in planning of risk reduction measures, and that have staff capable of visualizing and analyzing spatial data at a municipal scale. The SDSS should be able to function in different countries with different legal frameworks and with organizations with different mandates. These could be subdivided into Civil protection organization with the mandate to design disaster response plans, Expert organizations with the mandate to design structural risk reduction measures (e.g. dams, dikes, check-dams etc), and planning organizations with the mandate to make land development plans. The SDSS can be used in different ways: analyzing the current level of risk, analyzing the best alternatives for risk reduction, the evaluation of the consequences of possible future scenarios to the risk levels, and the evaluation how different risk reduction alternatives will lead to risk reduction under different future scenarios. The SDSS is developed based on open source software and following open standards, for code as well as for data formats and service interfaces. Code development was based upon open source software as well. The architecture of the system is modular. The various parts of the system are loosely coupled, extensible, using standards for interoperability, flexible and web-based. The Spatial Decision Support System is composed of a number of integrated components. The Risk Assessment component allows to carry out spatial risk analysis, with different degrees of complexity, ranging from simple exposure (overlay of hazard and assets maps) to

  1. Non-compliance with a postmastectomy radiotherapy guideline: Decision tree and cause analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Åhlfeldt Hans

    2008-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The guideline for postmastectomy radiotherapy (PMRT, which is prescribed to reduce recurrence of breast cancer in the chest wall and improve overall survival, is not always followed. Identifying and extracting important patterns of non-compliance are crucial in maintaining the quality of care in Oncology. Methods Analysis of 759 patients with malignant breast cancer using decision tree induction (DTI found patterns of non-compliance with the guideline. The PMRT guideline was used to separate cases according to the recommendation to receive or not receive PMRT. The two groups of patients were analyzed separately. Resulting patterns were transformed into rules that were then compared with the reasons that were extracted by manual inspection of records for the non-compliant cases. Results Analyzing patients in the group who should receive PMRT according to the guideline did not result in a robust decision tree. However, classification of the other group, patients who should not receive PMRT treatment according to the guideline, resulted in a tree with nine leaves and three of them were representing non-compliance with the guideline. In a comparison between rules resulting from these three non-compliant patterns and manual inspection of patient records, the following was found: In the decision tree, presence of perigland growth is the most important variable followed by number of malignantly invaded lymph nodes and level of Progesterone receptor. DNA index, age, size of the tumor and level of Estrogen receptor are also involved but with less importance. From manual inspection of the cases, the most frequent pattern for non-compliance is age above the threshold followed by near cut-off values for risk factors and unknown reasons. Conclusion Comparison of patterns of non-compliance acquired from data mining and manual inspection of patient records demonstrates that not all of the non-compliances are repetitive or important. There

  2. Assessing Interventions to Manage West Nile Virus Using Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis with Risk Scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hongoh, Valerie; Campagna, Céline; Panic, Mirna; Samuel, Onil; Gosselin, Pierre; Waaub, Jean-Philippe; Ravel, André; Samoura, Karim; Michel, Pascal

    2016-01-01

    The recent emergence of West Nile virus (WNV) in North America highlights vulnerability to climate sensitive diseases and stresses the importance of preventive efforts to reduce their public health impact. Effective prevention involves reducing environmental risk of exposure and increasing adoption of preventive behaviours, both of which depend on knowledge and acceptance of such measures. When making operational decisions about disease prevention and control, public health must take into account a wide range of operational, environmental, social and economic considerations in addition to intervention effectiveness. The current study aimed to identify, assess and rank possible risk reduction measures taking into account a broad set of criteria and perspectives applicable to the management of WNV in Quebec under increasing transmission risk scenarios, some of which may be related to ongoing warming in higher-latitude regions. A participatory approach was used to collect information on categories of concern to relevant stakeholders with respect to WNV prevention and control. Multi-criteria decision analysis was applied to examine stakeholder perspectives and their effect on strategy rankings under increasing transmission risk scenarios. Twenty-three preventive interventions were retained for evaluation using eighteen criteria identified by stakeholders. Combined evaluations revealed that, at an individual-level, inspecting window screen integrity, wearing light colored, long clothing, eliminating peridomestic larval sites and reducing outdoor activities at peak times were top interventions under six WNV transmission scenarios. At a regional-level, the use of larvicides was a preferred strategy in five out of six scenarios, while use of adulticides and dissemination of sterile male mosquitoes were found to be among the least favoured interventions in almost all scenarios. Our findings suggest that continued public health efforts aimed at reinforcing individual

  3. Four Common Simplifications of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis do not hold for River Rehabilitation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simone D Langhans

    Full Text Available River rehabilitation aims at alleviating negative effects of human impacts such as loss of biodiversity and reduction of ecosystem services. Such interventions entail difficult trade-offs between different ecological and often socio-economic objectives. Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA is a very suitable approach that helps assessing the current ecological state and prioritizing river rehabilitation measures in a standardized way, based on stakeholder or expert preferences. Applications of MCDA in river rehabilitation projects are often simplified, i.e. using a limited number of objectives and indicators, assuming linear value functions, aggregating individual indicator assessments additively, and/or assuming risk neutrality of experts. Here, we demonstrate an implementation of MCDA expert preference assessments to river rehabilitation and provide ample material for other applications. To test whether the above simplifications reflect common expert opinion, we carried out very detailed interviews with five river ecologists and a hydraulic engineer. We defined essential objectives and measurable quality indicators (attributes, elicited the experts´ preferences for objectives on a standardized scale (value functions and their risk attitude, and identified suitable aggregation methods. The experts recommended an extensive objectives hierarchy including between 54 and 93 essential objectives and between 37 to 61 essential attributes. For 81% of these, they defined non-linear value functions and in 76% recommended multiplicative aggregation. The experts were risk averse or risk prone (but never risk neutral, depending on the current ecological state of the river, and the experts´ personal importance of objectives. We conclude that the four commonly applied simplifications clearly do not reflect the opinion of river rehabilitation experts. The optimal level of model complexity, however, remains highly case-study specific depending on data and

  4. Four Common Simplifications of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis do not hold for River Rehabilitation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Langhans, Simone D; Lienert, Judit

    2016-01-01

    River rehabilitation aims at alleviating negative effects of human impacts such as loss of biodiversity and reduction of ecosystem services. Such interventions entail difficult trade-offs between different ecological and often socio-economic objectives. Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) is a very suitable approach that helps assessing the current ecological state and prioritizing river rehabilitation measures in a standardized way, based on stakeholder or expert preferences. Applications of MCDA in river rehabilitation projects are often simplified, i.e. using a limited number of objectives and indicators, assuming linear value functions, aggregating individual indicator assessments additively, and/or assuming risk neutrality of experts. Here, we demonstrate an implementation of MCDA expert preference assessments to river rehabilitation and provide ample material for other applications. To test whether the above simplifications reflect common expert opinion, we carried out very detailed interviews with five river ecologists and a hydraulic engineer. We defined essential objectives and measurable quality indicators (attributes), elicited the experts´ preferences for objectives on a standardized scale (value functions) and their risk attitude, and identified suitable aggregation methods. The experts recommended an extensive objectives hierarchy including between 54 and 93 essential objectives and between 37 to 61 essential attributes. For 81% of these, they defined non-linear value functions and in 76% recommended multiplicative aggregation. The experts were risk averse or risk prone (but never risk neutral), depending on the current ecological state of the river, and the experts´ personal importance of objectives. We conclude that the four commonly applied simplifications clearly do not reflect the opinion of river rehabilitation experts. The optimal level of model complexity, however, remains highly case-study specific depending on data and resource

  5. Assessing Interventions to Manage West Nile Virus Using Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis with Risk Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hongoh, Valerie; Campagna, Céline; Panic, Mirna; Samuel, Onil; Gosselin, Pierre; Waaub, Jean-Philippe; Ravel, André; Samoura, Karim; Michel, Pascal

    2016-01-01

    The recent emergence of West Nile virus (WNV) in North America highlights vulnerability to climate sensitive diseases and stresses the importance of preventive efforts to reduce their public health impact. Effective prevention involves reducing environmental risk of exposure and increasing adoption of preventive behaviours, both of which depend on knowledge and acceptance of such measures. When making operational decisions about disease prevention and control, public health must take into account a wide range of operational, environmental, social and economic considerations in addition to intervention effectiveness. The current study aimed to identify, assess and rank possible risk reduction measures taking into account a broad set of criteria and perspectives applicable to the management of WNV in Quebec under increasing transmission risk scenarios, some of which may be related to ongoing warming in higher-latitude regions. A participatory approach was used to collect information on categories of concern to relevant stakeholders with respect to WNV prevention and control. Multi-criteria decision analysis was applied to examine stakeholder perspectives and their effect on strategy rankings under increasing transmission risk scenarios. Twenty-three preventive interventions were retained for evaluation using eighteen criteria identified by stakeholders. Combined evaluations revealed that, at an individual-level, inspecting window screen integrity, wearing light colored, long clothing, eliminating peridomestic larval sites and reducing outdoor activities at peak times were top interventions under six WNV transmission scenarios. At a regional-level, the use of larvicides was a preferred strategy in five out of six scenarios, while use of adulticides and dissemination of sterile male mosquitoes were found to be among the least favoured interventions in almost all scenarios. Our findings suggest that continued public health efforts aimed at reinforcing individual

  6. Assessing Interventions to Manage West Nile Virus Using Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis with Risk Scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hongoh, Valerie; Campagna, Céline; Panic, Mirna; Samuel, Onil; Gosselin, Pierre; Waaub, Jean-Philippe; Ravel, André; Samoura, Karim; Michel, Pascal

    2016-01-01

    The recent emergence of West Nile virus (WNV) in North America highlights vulnerability to climate sensitive diseases and stresses the importance of preventive efforts to reduce their public health impact. Effective prevention involves reducing environmental risk of exposure and increasing adoption of preventive behaviours, both of which depend on knowledge and acceptance of such measures. When making operational decisions about disease prevention and control, public health must take into account a wide range of operational, environmental, social and economic considerations in addition to intervention effectiveness. The current study aimed to identify, assess and rank possible risk reduction measures taking into account a broad set of criteria and perspectives applicable to the management of WNV in Quebec under increasing transmission risk scenarios, some of which may be related to ongoing warming in higher-latitude regions. A participatory approach was used to collect information on categories of concern to relevant stakeholders with respect to WNV prevention and control. Multi-criteria decision analysis was applied to examine stakeholder perspectives and their effect on strategy rankings under increasing transmission risk scenarios. Twenty-three preventive interventions were retained for evaluation using eighteen criteria identified by stakeholders. Combined evaluations revealed that, at an individual-level, inspecting window screen integrity, wearing light colored, long clothing, eliminating peridomestic larval sites and reducing outdoor activities at peak times were top interventions under six WNV transmission scenarios. At a regional-level, the use of larvicides was a preferred strategy in five out of six scenarios, while use of adulticides and dissemination of sterile male mosquitoes were found to be among the least favoured interventions in almost all scenarios. Our findings suggest that continued public health efforts aimed at reinforcing individual

  7. Multi-criteria decision analysis for bioenergy in the Centre Region of Portugal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Esteves, T. C. J.; Cabral, P.; Ferreira, A. J. D.; Teixeira, J. C.

    2012-04-01

    With the consumption of fossil fuels, the resources essential to Man's survival are being rapidly contaminated. A sustainable future may be achieved by the use of renewable energies, allowing countries without non-renewable energy resources to guarantee energetic sovereignty. Using bioenergy may mean a steep reduction and/or elimination of the external dependency, enhancing the countries' capital and potentially reducing of the negative effects that outcome from the use of fossil fuels, such as loss of biodiversity, air, water, and soil pollution, … This work's main focus is to increase bioenergy use in the centre region of Portugal by allying R&D to facilitate determination of bioenergy availability and distribution throughout the study area.This analysis is essential, given that nowadays this knowledge is still very limited in the study area. Geographic Information Systems (GIS) was the main tool used to asses this study, due to its unseeingly ability to integrate various types of information (such as alphanumerical, statistical, geographical, …) and various sources of biomass (forest, agricultural, husbandry, municipal and industrial residues, shrublands, used vegetable oil and energy crops) to determine the bioenergy potential of the study area, as well as their spatial distribution. By allying GIS with multi-criteria decision analysis, the initial table-like information of difficult comprehension is transformed into tangible and easy to read results: both intermediate and final results of the created models will facilitate the decision making process. General results show that the major contributors for the bioenergy potential in the Centre Region of Portugal are forest residues, which are mostly located in the inner region of the study area. However, a more detailed analysis should be made to analyze the viability to use energy crops. As a main conclusion, we can say that, although this region may not use only this type of energy to be completely

  8. The development of a multi-criteria decision analysis aid to help with contraceptive choices: My Contraception Tool.

    Science.gov (United States)

    French, Rebecca S; Cowan, Frances M; Wellings, Kaye; Dowie, Jack

    2014-04-01

    My Contraception Tool (MCT) applies the principles of multi-criteria decision analysis to the choice of contraceptive method. Its purpose is to make the decision-making process transparent to the user and to suggest a method to them based on their own preferences. The contraceptive option that emerges as optimal from the analysis takes account of the probability of a range of outcomes and the relative weight ascribed to them by the user. The development of MCT was a collaborative project between London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Brook, FPA and Maldaba Ltd. MCT is available online via the Brook and FPA websites. In this article we describe MCT's development and how it works. Further work is needed to assess the impact it has on decision quality and contraceptive behaviour.

  9. Using fuzzy logic analysis for siting decisions of infiltration trenches for highway runoff control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ki, Seo Jin; Ray, Chittaranjan

    2014-09-15

    Determining optimal locations for best management practices (BMPs), including their field considerations and limitations, plays an important role for effective stormwater management. However, these issues have been often overlooked in modeling studies that focused on downstream water quality benefits. This study illustrates the methodology of locating infiltration trenches at suitable locations from spatial overlay analyses which combine multiple layers that address different aspects of field application into a composite map. Using seven thematic layers for each analysis, fuzzy logic was employed to develop a site suitability map for infiltration trenches, whereas the DRASTIC method was used to produce a groundwater vulnerability map on the island of Oahu, Hawaii, USA. In addition, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), one of the most popular overlay analyses, was used for comparison to fuzzy logic. The results showed that the AHP and fuzzy logic methods developed significantly different index maps in terms of best locations and suitability scores. Specifically, the AHP method provided a maximum level of site suitability due to its inherent aggregation approach of all input layers in a linear equation. The most eligible areas in locating infiltration trenches were determined from the superposition of the site suitability and groundwater vulnerability maps using the fuzzy AND operator. The resulting map successfully balanced qualification criteria for a low risk of groundwater contamination and the best BMP site selection. The results of the sensitivity analysis showed that the suitability scores were strongly affected by the algorithms embedded in fuzzy logic; therefore, caution is recommended with their use in overlay analysis. Accordingly, this study demonstrates that the fuzzy logic analysis can not only be used to improve spatial decision quality along with other overlay approaches, but also is combined with general water quality models for initial and refined

  10. Multi-objective Programming and Social Welfare Analysis of Rural-urban Land Conversion Decision-making

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Song Min; Zhang Anlu

    2008-01-01

    Rural-urban land conversion is an inevitable phenomenon in urbanization and industrialization. And the decision-making issue about this conversion is multi-objective because the social decision maker (the whole of central government and local authority) has to integrate the requirements of different interest groups (rural collective economic organizations, peasants, urban land users and the ones affected indirectly) and harmonize the sub-objects (economic, social and ecological outcomes) of this land allocation process. This paper established a multi-objective programming model for rural-urban land conversion decision-making and made some social welfare analysis correspondingly. Result shows that the general object of rural-urban land conversion decision-making is to reach the optimal level of social welfare in a certain state of resources allocation, while the preference of social decision makers and the value judgment of interest groups are two crucial factors which determine the realization of the rural-urban land conversion decision-making objects.

  11. Multi-criteria multi-stakeholder decision analysis using a fuzzy-stochastic approach for hydrosystem management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Subagadis, Y. H.; Schütze, N.; Grundmann, J.

    2014-09-01

    The conventional methods used to solve multi-criteria multi-stakeholder problems are less strongly formulated, as they normally incorporate only homogeneous information at a time and suggest aggregating objectives of different decision-makers avoiding water-society interactions. In this contribution, Multi-Criteria Group Decision Analysis (MCGDA) using a fuzzy-stochastic approach has been proposed to rank a set of alternatives in water management decisions incorporating heterogeneous information under uncertainty. The decision making framework takes hydrologically, environmentally, and socio-economically motivated conflicting objectives into consideration. The criteria related to the performance of the physical system are optimized using multi-criteria simulation-based optimization, and fuzzy linguistic quantifiers have been used to evaluate subjective criteria and to assess stakeholders' degree of optimism. The proposed methodology is applied to find effective and robust intervention strategies for the management of a coastal hydrosystem affected by saltwater intrusion due to excessive groundwater extraction for irrigated agriculture and municipal use. Preliminary results show that the MCGDA based on a fuzzy-stochastic approach gives useful support for robust decision-making and is sensitive to the decision makers' degree of optimism.

  12. Assessing the value of healthcare interventions using multi-criteria decision analysis: a review of the literature.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marsh, Kevin; Lanitis, Tereza; Neasham, David; Orfanos, Panagiotis; Caro, Jaime

    2014-04-01

    The objective of this study is to support those undertaking a multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) by reviewing the approaches adopted in healthcare MCDAs to date, how these varied with the objective of the study, and the lessons learned from this experience. Searches of EMBASE and MEDLINE identified 40 studies that provided 41 examples of MCDA in healthcare. Data were extracted on the objective of the study, methods employed, and decision makers' and study authors' reflections on the advantages and disadvantages of the methods. The recent interest in MCDA in healthcare is mirrored in an increase in the application of MCDA to evaluate healthcare interventions. Of the studies identified, the first was published in 1990, but more than half were published since 2011. They were undertaken in 18 different countries, and were designed to support investment (coverage and reimbursement), authorization, prescription, and research funding allocation decisions. Many intervention types were assessed: pharmaceuticals, public health interventions, screening, surgical interventions, and devices. Most used the value measurement approach and scored performance using predefined scales. Beyond these similarities, a diversity of different approaches were adopted, with only limited correspondence between the approach and the type of decision or product. Decision makers consulted as part of these studies, as well as the authors of the studies are positive about the potential of MCDA to improve decision making. Further work is required, however, to develop guidance for those undertaking MCDA.

  13. Modules for Experiments in Stellar Astrophysics (MESA): Giant Planets, Oscillations, Rotation, and Massive Stars

    CERN Document Server

    Paxton, Bill; Arras, Phil; Bildsten, Lars; Brown, Edward F; Dotter, Aaron; Mankovich, Christopher; Montgomery, M H; Stello, Dennis; Timmes, F X; Townsend, Richard

    2013-01-01

    We substantially update the capabilities of the open source software package Modules for Experiments in Stellar Astrophysics (MESA), and its one-dimensional stellar evolution module, MESA Star. Improvements in MESA Star's ability to model the evolution of giant planets now extends its applicability down to masses as low as one-tenth that of Jupiter. The dramatic improvement in asteroseismology enabled by the space-based Kepler and CoRoT missions motivates our full coupling of the ADIPLS adiabatic pulsation code with MESA Star. This also motivates a numerical recasting of the Ledoux criterion that is more easily implemented when many nuclei are present at non-negligible abundances. This impacts the way in which MESA Star calculates semi-convective and thermohaline mixing. We exhibit the evolution of 3-8 Msun stars through the end of core He burning, the onset of He thermal pulses, and arrival on the white dwarf cooling sequence. We implement diffusion of angular momentum and chemical abundances that enable cal...

  14. Models for Rational Decision Making. Analysis of Literature and Selected Bibliography. Analysis and Bibliography Series, No. 6.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hall, John S.

    This review analyzes the trend in educational decision making to replace hierarchical authority structures with more rational models for decision making drawn from management science. Emphasis is also placed on alternatives to a hierarchical decision-making model, including governing models, union models, and influence models. A 54-item…

  15. Game Theory Model and Equilibrium Analysis of Peasant's Production Decision

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Qi Xue-lian; Zhang Ya-zhuo; Meng Jun

    2012-01-01

    Unbalanced agricultural production decision becomes the great block that influences the effective distribution of social resources, national grain security, social stability and economic development. This paper took the game theory as an analyzed tool to describe the interactional processes among the peasants, and set up the game theory model of independent decision and joint decision by peasants. It was shown that the government's positive guide and the market environment macroscopically controlled by the government could effectively increased the peasants' income

  16. The Economics and Politics of Trade Policy: An Empirical Analysis of ITC Decision Making

    OpenAIRE

    Wendy L. Hansen; PRUSA, Thomas J.

    1996-01-01

    We study the determinants of trade policy decisions focusing specifically on antidumping and countervailing duty statutes administered by the International Trade Commission (ITC). Using detailed industry, import, and political pressure data we model ITC decision making, weighing the relative impact of economic and political factors in predicting policy outcomes. We find the ITC's decision making is significantly influenced by both economic and political factors. However, because an industry h...

  17. How Can We Make Progress with Decision Support Systems in Landscape and River Basin Management? Lessons Learned from a Comparative Analysis of Four Different Decision Support Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Volk, Martin; Lautenbach, Sven; van Delden, Hedwig; Newham, Lachlan T. H.; Seppelt, Ralf

    2010-12-01

    This article analyses the benefits and shortcomings of the recently developed decision support systems (DSS) FLUMAGIS, Elbe-DSS, CatchMODS, and MedAction. The analysis elaborates on the following aspects: (i) application area/decision problem, (ii) stakeholder interaction/users involved, (iii) structure of DSS/model structure, (iv) usage of the DSS, and finally (v) most important shortcomings. On the basis of this analysis, we formulate four criteria that we consider essential for the successful use of DSS in landscape and river basin management. The criteria relate to (i) system quality, (ii) user support and user training, (iii) perceived usefulness and (iv) user satisfaction. We can show that the availability of tools and technologies for DSS in landscape and river basin management is good to excellent. However, our investigations indicate that several problems have to be tackled. First of all, data availability and homogenisation, uncertainty analysis and uncertainty propagation and problems with model integration require further attention. Furthermore, the appropriate and methodological stakeholder interaction and the definition of `what end-users really need and want' have been documented as general shortcomings of all four examples of DSS. Thus, we propose an iterative development process that enables social learning of the different groups involved in the development process, because it is easier to design a DSS for a group of stakeholders who actively participate in an iterative process. We also identify two important lines of further development in DSS: the use of interactive visualization tools and the methodology of optimization to inform scenario elaboration and evaluate trade-offs among environmental measures and management alternatives.

  18. Analysis for making a regulatory decision to equipment of industrial gammagraphy in Argentin; Analisis para la toma de decision regulatoria sobre equipos de gammagrafia industrial en Argentina

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ermacora, Marcela G.; Vidal, Dora N.; Alonso, Maria T., E-mail: mermacora@arn.gob.ar, E-mail: dvidal@arn.gob.ar, E-mail: malonso@arn.gob.ar [Autoridad Regulatoria Nuclear (ARN), Buenos Aires (Argentina)

    2013-10-01

    Industrial gammagraphy is a practice widely used as a nondestructive testing technique in Argentina. Experience worldwide has shown the need for an improvement in the intrinsic safety of the equipment used in this lab. In response to this reason, the board of the Nuclear Regulatory Authority (ARN) has considered a proposal to withdraw service movement and much of the equipment inventory scan belonging to industrial facilities nationwide. The main objective of this paper is to present the results of the analysis performed to support the above proposal. The main elements of evaluation can be summarized as follows: I) the teams that do not conform to international recommendations regarding compliance with key safety requirements of international standards such as ISO 3999:2004 (E) {sup R}adiation protection - Industrial Apparatus for gamma radiography - Specifications for performance, design and tests {sup ;} II) the decision by some manufacturers to discontinue production of certain models of equipment and the provision of spare parts, and III) the validity of certificates bulk type B (U) for transport. In conclusion, it highlights the importance of a regulatory decision supplementary to the Standard AR 7.9.1 concerning the operation of scan equipment industry, based on current international recommendations and Argentina's commitment to good practice and safety culture which can lead to a positive impact on radiation safety in this art.

  19. A medical decision analysis of invasive bladder cancer - radical cystectomy versus chemoradiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Purpose - A medical decision analysis was performed for invasive bladder cancer to determine which of the two treatments - radical cystectomy with continent reservoir (CYST) or concurrent cisplatinum-based chemotherapy/radiotherapy with salvage cystectomy (CT/RT) - produces the highest quality-adjusted survival. Sensitivity analysis was performed to discover which treatment-related factors significantly affect the result. Method - A 25-variable decision tree was constructed on the choice between CYST and CT/RT. A review of the literature produced the following variables: the chance of micrometastatic (incurable) disease is 35%; treatment-related mortality is 2% for CYST, and 3% for CT/RT; the complete response rate for the 4-month CT/RT protocol is 68% and non-responders underwent immediate salvage CYST without producing de novo distant metastasis; late local relapse is 10% for CYST and 25% for CT/RT, occurring 9 months post-treatment; and a CYST relapse is fatal. The following assumptions were manufactured: 65% of late CT/RT relapses are salvaged for cure; the quality-adjusted life-years (QALY) for death from distant metastasis is 0.8; the treatment-phase utility of CT/RT is 70%; the long-term utility for CYST is 90% and for CT/RT is 98%; and the life expectancy of a long-term survivor is 10 years. The outcome is measured in QALYs - the sum of the products of the time and the utility of each phase in a patient's life. Results - The base case shows that CT/RT produced an aggregate of 5.42 QALYs and CYST 5.35 QALYs. Multiple factors within their plausible range influenced which is the preferred treatment. The most significant factors (threshold values in parenthesis) included the probability of CT/RT-induced death (6.5%), the added risk of an operative death after CT/RT (4.6%), life expectancy (9 months) and most importantly the relative differences in the long-term utilities of the two treatments. (5-6% better in the CT/RT arm). The percentage of long

  20. When is enough evidence enough? - Using systematic decision analysis and value-of-information analysis to determine the need for further evidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siebert, Uwe; Rochau, Ursula; Claxton, Karl

    2013-01-01

    Decision analysis (DA) and value-of-information (VOI) analysis provide a systematic, quantitative methodological framework that explicitly considers the uncertainty surrounding the currently available evidence to guide healthcare decisions. In medical decision making under uncertainty, there are two fundamental questions: 1) What decision should be made now given the best available evidence (and its uncertainty)?; 2) Subsequent to the current decision and given the magnitude of the remaining uncertainty, should we gather further evidence (i.e., perform additional studies), and if yes, which studies should be undertaken (e.g., efficacy, side effects, quality of life, costs), and what sample sizes are needed? Using the currently best available evidence, VoI analysis focuses on the likelihood of making a wrong decision if the new intervention is adopted. The value of performing further studies and gathering additional evidence is based on the extent to which the additional information will reduce this uncertainty. A quantitative framework allows for the valuation of the additional information that is generated by further research, and considers the decision maker's objectives and resource constraints. Claxton et al. summarise: "Value of information analysis can be used to inform a range of policy questions including whether a new technology should be approved based on existing evidence, whether it should be approved but additional research conducted or whether approval should be withheld until the additional evidence becomes available." [Claxton K. Value of information entry in Encyclopaedia of Health Economics, Elsevier, forthcoming 2014.] The purpose of this tutorial is to introduce the framework of systematic VoI analysis to guide further research. In our tutorial article, we explain the theoretical foundations and practical methods of decision analysis and value-of-information analysis. To illustrate, we use a simple case example of a foot ulcer (e.g., with

  1. Decision analysis to complete diagnostic research by closing the gap between test characteristics and cost-effectiveness

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schaafsma, Joanna D.; van der Graaf, Yolanda; Rinkel, Gabriel J. E.; Buskens, Erik

    2009-01-01

    Objective: The lack of a standard methodology in diagnostic research impedes adequate evaluation before implementation of constantly developing diagnostic techniques. We discuss the methodology of diagnostic research and underscore the relevance of decision analysis in the process of evaluation of d

  2. GIS-based Landing-Site Analysis and Passive Decision Support

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Gasselt, Stephan; Nass, Andrea

    2016-04-01

    The increase of surface coverage and the availability and accessibility of planetary data allow researchers and engineers to remotely perform detailed studies on surface processes and properties, in particular on objects such as Mars and the Moon for which Terabytes of multi-temporal data at multiple spatial resolution levels have become available during the last 15 years. Orbiters, rovers and landers have been returning information and insights into the surface evolution of the terrestrial planets in unprecedented detail. While rover- and lander-based analyses are one major research aim to obtain ground truth, resource exploration or even potential establishment of bases using autonomous platforms are others and they require detailed investigation of settings in order to identify spots on the surface that are suitable for spacecraft to land and operate safely and over a long period of time. What has been done using hardcopy material in the past is today being carried by using either in-house developments or off-the-shelf spatial information system technology which allows to manage, integrate and analyse data as well as visualize and create user-defined reports for performing assessments. Usually, such analyses can be broken down (manually) by considering scientific wishes, engineering boundary conditions, potential hazards and various tertiary constraints. We here (1) review standard tasks of landing site analyses, (2) discuss issues inherently related to the analysis using integrated spatial analysis systems and (3) demonstrate a modular analysis framework for integration of data and for the evaluation of results from individual tasks in order to support decisions for landing-site selection.

  3. Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis for Health Care Decision Making—Emerging Good Practices: Report 2 of the ISPOR MCDA Emerging Good Practices Task Force

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Marsh, Kevin; IJzerman, Maarten; Thokala, Praveen; Baltussen, Rob; Boysen, Meindert; Kalo, Zoltan; Longrenn, Thomas; Mussen, Filip; Peacock, Stuart; Watkins, John; Devlin, Nancy

    2016-01-01

    Health care decisions are complex and involve confronting trade-offs between multiple, often conflicting objectives. Using structured, explicit approaches to decisions involving multiple criteria can improve the quality of decision making. A set of techniques, known under the collective heading mult

  4. Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis for Health Care Decision Making—An Introduction: Report 1 of the ISPOR MCDA Emerging Good Practices Task Force

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Thokala, Praveen; Devlin, Nancy; Marsh, Kevin; Baltussen, Rob; Boysen, Meindert; Kalo, Zoltan; Longrenn, Thomas; Mussen, Filip; Peacock, Stuart; Watkins, John; IJzerman, Maarten

    2016-01-01

    Health care decisions are complex and involve confronting trade-offs between multiple, often conflicting, objectives. Using structured, explicit approaches to decisions involving multiple criteria can improve the quality of decision making and a set of techniques, known under the collective heading

  5. "Junior Doctor Decision Making: Isn't that an Oxymoron?" A Qualitative Analysis of Junior Doctors' Ward-Based Decision-Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bull, Stephanie; Mattick, Karen; Postlethwaite, Keith

    2013-01-01

    Unacceptable levels of adverse healthcare events, combined with changes to training, have put the spotlight on junior doctor decision-making. This study aimed to describe the decisions made by junior doctors and the contextual factors influencing how decisions were made and justified. Stimulated recall interviews with 20 junior doctors across five…

  6. The preliminary study of autophagy induction of SA and MeSA by confocal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yun, Lijuan; Chen, Wenli

    2010-02-01

    Autophagy appears to be a highly conserved process from unicellular to multicellular eukaryotes which contributes to the equilibrium of intracelluar environment. While it would be harmful to the cells when it is excessive by inducing programmed cell death (PCD). It is a protein degradation process in which cells recycle cytoplasmic contents when subjected to environmental stress conditions or during certain stages of development. Previous studies have demonstrated autophagy can be induced during abiotic or biotic stresses. salicylic acid (SA) and methyl salicytic (MeSA) are endogenous signal molecules. We found SA and MeSA can induce autophagy in Arabidopsis thaliana respectively. While autophagy was not induced by SA or MeSA in tobacco suspension cells under the same concentration and period. The differences in stuctures or physiological states may contribute to the results.

  7. The Yeshiva Case: Special Analysis. The Impact of the Supreme Court Decision.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levenstein, Aaron, E.

    1980-01-01

    The impact of the Supreme Court Decision, "National Labor Relations Board versus Yeshiva University," on collective bargaining at colleges and universities is considered. The basic thrust of the majority decision is that faculty are not under the umbrella of the National Labor Relations Act and that administration may refuse to negotiate with a…

  8. Decision-Support Data Analysis: Examining Consistency among Teachers in Writing Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Archbald, Doug

    2011-01-01

    Education leaders and much literature exhort teachers and school leaders to use data more often and more effectively to guide planning and decision making--called, "data driven decision making." This term is ubiquitous in literature and reform discourse, but "on the ground," so to speak, practitioners face significant challenges in analyzing,…

  9. Analysis of Decision Factors for the Application of Information Access Controls within the Organization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foerster, Carl A.

    2013-01-01

    The application of access controls on internal information necessarily impacts the availability of that information for sharing inside the enterprise. The decisions establishing the degree of control are a crucial first step to balance the requirements to protect and share. This research develops a set of basic decision factors and examines other…

  10. Using Network Analysis to Improve Decision Making for Partner Selection in Inter-Organizational Networks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ponisio, Laura; Eck, van Pascal; Riemens, Lourens

    2013-01-01

    Professionals in decision making roles are often faced with the problem of choosing partners for closer cooperation, for instance, to start new joint IT development projects or for harvesting best practices. The large amounts of information involved in these decision processes obscure possibilities,

  11. Despite Best Intentions: A Critical Analysis of Social Justice Leadership and Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeMatthews, David E.; Mungal, Angus Shiva; Carrola, Paul A.

    2015-01-01

    The purpose of this article is to explore the relationship between social justice leadership and organizational decision making in order to make recommendations for how principals can make more socially just decisions in difficult school contexts. This article begins with a discussion of social justice leadership, facets and theories associated…

  12. A conceptual approach for a quantitative economic analysis of farmers’ decision-making regarding animal welfare

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gocsik, E.; Saatkamp, H.W.; Lauwere, de C.C.; Oude Lansink, A.G.J.M.

    2014-01-01

    Decisions related to animal welfare (AW) standards depend on farmer’s multiple goals and values and are constrained by a wide range of external and internal forces. The aim of this paper is twofold, i.e., (1) to develop a theoretical framework for farmers’ AW decisions that incorporates farmers’ goa

  13. 78 FR 26771 - Mesa Wind Power Corporation; Supplemental Notice That Initial Market-Based Rate Filing Includes...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-05-08

    ... From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY Federal Energy Regulatory Commission Mesa Wind Power Corporation; Supplemental Notice That Initial Market-Based... above-referenced proceeding of Mesa Wind Power Corporation's application for market-based rate...

  14. 75 FR 76727 - Red Mesa Wind, LLC; Supplemental Notice That Initial Market-Based Rate Filing Includes Request...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-12-09

    ... From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY Federal Energy Regulatory Commission Red Mesa Wind, LLC; Supplemental Notice That Initial Market-Based Rate... notice in the above-referenced proceeding of Red Mesa Wind, LLC's application for market-based...

  15. 75 FR 63488 - Submission for OMB Review; Comment Request; Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) Event...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-15

    ... Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) Event Surveillance SUMMARY: Under the provisions of Section 3507(a)(1)(D... Collection: Title: Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) Event Surveillance. Type of Information... disease (CVD)-- that is, atherosclerosis and other forms of CVD that have not produced signs and...

  16. Decision analysis in the expansion planning of the Mexican Electrical System; Analisis de decision en la planificacion de la expansion del Sistema Electrico Mexicano

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Toupiol, S.; Martin del Campo M, C.; Ortega C, R. [Departamento de Sistemas Energeticos, Facultad de Ingenieria UNAM, Circuito Exterior s/n, Ciudad Universitaria, 04510 Mexico D.F. (Mexico)]. e-mail: stoupiol@yahoo.fr

    2007-07-01

    In the last years, the planning of the National Interconnected System has been guided mainly to technologies of combined cycle, contributing to the establishment of a generation system little diversified and clerk of the readiness and volatility of the prices of natural gas. On the other hand, the electric system continues expanding without to consider the emissions of gases coming from the electric generation and the significant participation of the renewable and nuclear technologies in the production of electricity like decisive parameters for the long term planning, for what the developed plans are economically attractive but they don't contribute to the respect of the environment, to the sustainable development, neither to the diversification. With base to the above-mentioned intended in this work to develop viable outlines for the long term expansion of the National Interconnected System (period 2005-2024), appealing to the pattern of uni nodal planning that uses the Federal Commission of Electricity at the moment (CFE) that is to say the pattern WASP given by the International Atomic Energy Agency. This way, you fixed as objective to propose two expansion alternatives to the reference plan developed by the CFE in 2005 for the period 2005-2024, with the purpose of not only looking for the good plan of these three plans in terms of the total cost of generation, but also in terms of the risk associated to the price of natural gas, the emissions of dioxide of sulfur and nitrogen oxides generated by the plants of the system and the diversity of the generation park. To compare the three developed plans, you applies an analysis of decision of multiple approaches based on the approach of Savage. Finally, starting from this analysis, he/she intended to determine if the plan of minimum cost represents the long term better option or if it suits but to expand the system being based on a plan that represents the best commitment cost-risk-emission-diversity. (Author)

  17. Analysis of Farmers’ Fundemantal Farm Management Decisions in Terms of Priority and Getting Support

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Gunden

    2008-05-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this study is to analyse farmers‟ fundemantal farm management decisions such as technical support, planning and recording. Furthermore, institutonal preferences of the farmers for getting support related to farm management decision making by using Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP. Tobit model was used to determine factors influencing farmer‟s decision priority and institution preference. As for the farmers‟ priorities to fundamental management decisions under investigation, planning (0.585 was the first and the following was technical support (0.336. The farmers are particularly interested in the question of “how much to produce the crops”, not “what crops to be produced”. The farmers prefer university (0.273 for making the fundamental farm management decisions. As the farmer‟s age, education and farm size increase, the priority of planning and the preference of university increase.

  18. A meta-analysis of gender stereotypes and bias in experimental simulations of employment decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koch, Amanda J; D'Mello, Susan D; Sackett, Paul R

    2015-01-01

    Gender bias continues to be a concern in many work settings, leading researchers to identify factors that influence workplace decisions. In this study we examine several of these factors, using an organizing framework of sex distribution within jobs (including male- and female-dominated jobs as well as sex-balanced, or integrated, jobs). We conducted random effects meta-analyses including 136 independent effect sizes from experimental studies (N = 22,348) and examined the effects of decision-maker gender, amount and content of information available to the decision maker, type of evaluation, and motivation to make careful decisions on gender bias in organizational decisions. We also examined study characteristics such as type of participant, publication year, and study design. Our findings revealed that men were preferred for male-dominated jobs (i.e., gender-role congruity bias), whereas no strong preference for either gender was found for female-dominated or integrated jobs. Second, male raters exhibited greater gender-role congruity bias than did female raters for male-dominated jobs. Third, gender-role congruity bias did not consistently decrease when decision makers were provided with additional information about those they were rating, but gender-role congruity bias was reduced when information clearly indicated high competence of those being evaluated. Fourth, gender-role congruity bias did not differ between decisions that required comparisons among ratees and decisions made about individual ratees. Fifth, decision makers who were motivated to make careful decisions tended to exhibit less gender-role congruity bias for male-dominated jobs. Finally, for male-dominated jobs, experienced professionals showed smaller gender-role congruity bias than did undergraduates or working adults.

  19. Recommendations for Standardizing Glucose Reporting and Analysis to Optimize Clinical Decision Making in Diabetes: The Ambulatory Glucose Profile

    OpenAIRE

    Bergenstal, Richard M.; Ahmann, Andrew J.; Bailey, Timothy; Beck, Roy W.; Bissen, Joan; Buckingham, Bruce; Deeb, Larry; Dolin, Robert H.; Garg, Satish K.; Goland, Robin; Hirsch, Irl B.; Klonoff, David C.; Kruger, Davida F; Matfin, Glenn; Mazze, Roger S.

    2013-01-01

    Underutilization of glucose data and lack of easy and standardized glucose data collection, analysis, visualization, and guided clinical decision making are key contributors to poor glycemic control among individuals with type 1 diabetes mellitus. An expert panel of diabetes specialists, facilitated by the International Diabetes Center and sponsored by the Helmsley Charitable Trust, met in 2012 to discuss recommendations for standardizing the analysis and presentation of glucose monitoring da...

  20. An investigation into the application of customer profitability analysis as a strategic decision-making tool in a hospitality environment

    OpenAIRE

    Noone, Breffni M

    1997-01-01

    The primary objective of this study was to investigate the Applicability of Customer Profitability Analysis as a strategic decision-making technique in a hospitality environment. The study commenced with a review of literature in the fields of Yield Management, Customer Profitability Analysis (CPA) and Activity-Based Costing (ABC), with ABC being identified as an appropriate method of costing to use in CPA. Issues arising from the implementation of an Activity-Based CPA including the purpose ...

  1. Real options analysis as a decision-making tool - A preliminary investigation of the real estate investment executive perspective

    OpenAIRE

    Vimpari, Jussi; Junnila, Seppo

    2015-01-01

    This paper attempts to identify literature where real options analysis (ROA) has enhanced real estate investment analysis and decision-making as well as to conduct a preliminary investigation of how ROA is known and perceived by senior real estate investment executives. The research is carried out as an exploratory study where the data for the research is gathered via semi-structured interviews with senior executives in real estate investment companies. All of the interviewees expressed...

  2. A hybrid multiple criteria decision analysis framework for corporate social responsibility implementation applied to an extractive industry case study

    OpenAIRE

    Poplawska, Jolanta; Labib, Ashraf; Reed, Debbie

    2015-01-01

    Integration of Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) into a company’s mainstream strategy is a complex task. Practical implementation of CSR requires analysis of both the external and internal environments to determine the prospects and challenges significantly influencing integration of sustainability into business strategy. In order to overcome limitations of single multi criteria decision analysis (MCDA) models, this article proposes a hybrid integrated framework combining cognitive mappin...

  3. Exploration for uranium deposits in the Spring Creek Mesa area, Montrose County, Colorado

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roach, Carl Houston

    1954-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey explored the Spring Creek Mesa area from July 11, 1951, to August 14, 1953. During that period, 280 diamond-drill holes were completed for a total of 180,287 feet. Sedimentary rocks of Mesozoic age are exposed in and adjacent to the Spring Creek Mesa area. These rocks consist of, from oldest to youngest: the Upper Jurassic Morrison formation, the Lower Cretaceous Burro Canyon formation, and the Upper Cretaceous Dakota formation. The Morrison formation consists of two members in the Spring Creek Mesa area: the lower is the Salt Wash member and the upper is the Brusby Basin member. All of the large uranium-bearing deposits discovered by the Geological Survey drilling in the Spring Creek Mesa area are in a series of coalescing sandstone lenses in the uppermost part of the Salt Wash member of the Morrison formation. Most of the ore deposits are believed to be irregular tabular or lens-shaped masses and probably lie parallel to the bedding, although in detail, they may crosscut the bedding. Also, ore deposits that take the form of narrow elongate concretionary-like structures, locally called “rolls”, may be present in the Spring Creek Mesa area. The mineralized material consists mostly of sandstone which has been selectively impregnated and in part replaced by uranium and vanadium minerals. Also, rich concentrations of uranium and vanadium are commonly associated with thin mudstone seams, beds of mudstone pebbles, and carbonaceous material of various types. Two suites of ore minerals are present in the ore deposits - - an oxidized suite of secondary uranium and vanadium minerals and a relatively unoxidized suite of “primary” uranium and vanadium minerals. The following geologic criteria are useful as guides to ore in the Spring Creek Mesa area:

  4. Using soil function evaluation in multi-criteria decision analysis for sustainability appraisal of remediation alternatives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Volchko, Yevheniya; Norrman, Jenny; Rosén, Lars; Bergknut, Magnus; Josefsson, Sarah; Söderqvist, Tore; Norberg, Tommy; Wiberg, Karin; Tysklind, Mats

    2014-07-01

    Soil contamination is one of the major threats constraining proper functioning of the soil and thus provision of ecosystem services. Remedial actions typically only address the chemical soil quality by reducing total contaminant concentrations to acceptable levels guided by land use. However, emerging regulatory requirements on soil protection demand a holistic view on soil assessment in remediation projects thus accounting for a variety of soil functions. Such a view would require not only that the contamination concentrations are assessed and attended to, but also that other aspects are taking into account, thus addressing also physical and biological as well as other chemical soil quality indicators (SQIs). This study outlines how soil function assessment can be a part of a holistic sustainability appraisal of remediation alternatives using multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA). The paper presents a method for practitioners for evaluating the effects of remediation alternatives on selected ecological soil functions using a suggested minimum data set (MDS) containing physical, biological and chemical SQIs. The measured SQIs are transformed into sub-scores by the use of scoring curves, which allows interpretation and the integration of soil quality data into the MCDA framework. The method is demonstrated at a study site (Marieberg, Sweden) and the results give an example of how soil analyses using the suggested MDS can be used for soil function assessment and subsequent input to the MCDA framework.

  5. ANALYSIS AND SYNTHESIS OF A DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM WITHIN MEDICALECONOMIC PREFERENTIAL DRUGS PRESCRIPTION CONTROL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Koshkarov A. A.

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available There are about 575 thousand of citizens in the Krasnodar Region that are entitled to a preferential medical maintenance in accordance with the Federal Law of 17.07.1999 (№178-FZ "On state social assistance." About 120 thousand of preferential prescriptions for 150 thousand of medicines are serviced per month. In order to make the drugs prescription process based exceptionally on real medical indications in accordance with modern concepts of medical service quality it is necessary to plan the medical-economic drugs prescription validity control (MEC. The work proposes the analysis and synthesis method of decision support system (DSS modules for automation the selection of drugs prescription and medicinal maintenance cases, concerning the federal benefit recipients, while performing the MEC. DSS allows medical experts to estimate the efficiency of federal funds costs, that are spent on the preferential medicinal maintenance, moreover, it can serve as a basis for future purchases planning, as well as to correct and improve the efficiency of medical prescriptions. The DSS was developed in accordance with the approved procedure of information exchange in the Krasnodar Region; it involves the integration with existing systems. Furthermore, as the federal register of persons, entitled to the state social assistance, has common formats among all the Russian Federation subjects, the developed system can be easily adapted in other regions

  6. Mining the Colorado Plateau: the Story of Calamity Mesa 1910-19

    OpenAIRE

    Godfrey, Lisa Pitcher

    1991-01-01

    This thesis was written to outline the history of five stone houses, which have survived almost a century of mining activity. The houses are located on a barren mesa, called Calamity, in southwestern Colorado. This work was funded by the Bureau of Land Management, Department of the Interior, in order to explore the possibility of designating this site as a National Historic Site. Men and women lived and worked on this and the surrounding mesas for most of the twentieth century. The lives o...

  7. Presentaci??n de la Mesa de debate sobre "aspectos fundamentales de las redes

    OpenAIRE

    L??pez Rodr??guez, Marta Sof??a

    2012-01-01

    Redes sociales: de la indignaci??n al cambio. Aspectos Fundamentales de las Redes. Presentaci??n de la Mesa de debate sobre "aspectos fundamentales de las redes" por Marta Sof??a L??pez Rodr??guez (Universidad de Le??n, filolog??a) que modera la mesa. Curso de verano: "Redes sociales: de la indignaci??n al cambio (aspecto ??ticos, pol??ticos y est??ticos)", MUSAC, 21-23 septiembre de 2012, organizado en cooperaci??n con la Universidad Polit??cnica de Munich (HM), BITrum y MyUniversity.

  8. Risk analysis for decision support in electricity distribution system asset management: methods and frameworks for analysing intangible risks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nordgaard, Dag Eirik

    2010-04-15

    During the last 10 to 15 years electricity distribution companies throughout the world have been ever more focused on asset management as the guiding principle for their activities. Within asset management, risk is a key issue for distribution companies, together with handling of cost and performance. There is now an increased awareness of the need to include risk analyses into the companies' decision making processes. Much of the work on risk in electricity distribution systems has focused on aspects of reliability. This is understandable, since it is surely an important feature of the product delivered by the electricity distribution infrastructure, and it is high on the agenda for regulatory authorities in many countries. However, electricity distribution companies are also concerned with other risks relevant for their decision making. This typically involves intangible risks, such as safety, environmental impacts and company reputation. In contrast to the numerous methodologies developed for reliability risk analysis, there are relatively few applications of structured analyses to support decisions concerning intangible risks, even though they represent an important motivation for decisions taken in electricity distribution companies. The overall objective of this PhD work has been to explore risk analysis methods that can be used to improve and support decision making in electricity distribution system asset management, with an emphasis on the analysis of intangible risks. The main contributions of this thesis can be summarised as: An exploration and testing of quantitative risk analysis (QRA) methods to support decisions concerning intangible risks; The development of a procedure for using life curve models to provide input to QRA models; The development of a framework for risk-informed decision making where QRA are used to analyse selected problems; In addition, the results contribute to clarify the basic concepts of risk, and highlight challenges

  9. Dating of Las Mesas Copper Age walled enclosure (La Fuente, Spain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Odriozola, Carlos P.

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The site of Las Mesas is located in the west bank of the Guadajira river (La Fuente, Badajoz, Spain. It covers a half hectare and is enclosed by a stone wall. Previous assessments based on site surveys suggested a general chronological span from Late Neolithic period (ca. 3600-2900 BC through the Copper Age (3rd millennium BC. Excavations revealed a well-constructed wall with bastions and a domestic space at the centre of the site with three occupational phases. Several functional areas and a votive pit are ascribed to the second phase. A deer antler located in a re-cut ritual pit associated to the second phase was dated by AMS-14C. Samples from a living floor assigned to the second phase (SU-9/10 and the basement of a kiln associated with the first phase (SU-18 was dated by optically stimulated luminescence (OSL using the single aliquot regenerative dose (SAR protocol on 90-160 m quartz grains. Luminescence profiling analysis of 7 samples taken throughout the archaeological stratigraphy was used to assess variations in luminescence behaviour and relative age through the sequence, using infrared-, optically –and thermally– stimulated luminescence (IRSL, OSL, TSL on poly-mineral and etched samples. Luminescence dating and profiling indicates that the upper archaeological layer (SU-1B probably dates to the Late Bronze Age (ca. 1000 BC, but that the sediments in the remainder of this section accumulated during the late Neolithic-Copper Age: the site was most probably inhabited between 3300 and 2900 BC. There were gaps in occupation between the Late Neolithic-Cooper Age phases (I & II, and between the Late Neolithic-Cooper Age phases and Late Bronze Age phase (II & III, indicating that the site was abandoned and reoccupied twice. The AMS-14C date on deer antler of 4254 ± 45 BP (3010-2675 cal BC is consisten with the OSL results for phase II, indicating that the pit was excavated at the beginning of the second occupational phase. Combined OSL

  10. The Best Path Analysis in Military Highway Transport Based on DEA and Multiobjective Fuzzy Decision-Making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wu Juan

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Military transport path selection directly affects the transport speed, efficiency, and safety. To a certain degree, the results of the path selection determine success or failure of the war situation. The purpose of this paper is to propose a model based on DEA (data envelopment analysis and multiobjective fuzzy decision-making for path selection. The path decision set is established according to a search algorithm based on overlapping section punishment. Considering the influence of various fuzzy factors, the model of optimal path is constructed based on DEA and multitarget fuzzy decision-making theory, where travel time, transport risk, quick response capability, and transport cost constitute the evaluation target set. A reasonable path set can be calculated and sorted according to the comprehensive scores of the paths. The numerical results show that the model and the related algorithms are effective for path selection of military transport.

  11. Optimal management of high-risk T1G3 bladder cancer: a decision analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Girish S Kulkarni

    2007-09-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Controversy exists about the most appropriate treatment for high-risk superficial (stage T1; grade G3 bladder cancer. Immediate cystectomy offers the best chance for survival but may be associated with an impaired quality of life compared with conservative therapy. We estimated life expectancy (LE and quality-adjusted life expectancy (QALE for both of these treatments for men and women of different ages and comorbidity levels. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We evaluated two treatment strategies for high-risk, T1G3 bladder cancer using a decision-analytic Markov model: (1 Immediate cystectomy with neobladder creation versus (2 conservative management with intravesical bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG and delayed cystectomy in individuals with resistant or progressive disease. Probabilities and utilities were derived from published literature where available, and otherwise from expert opinion. Extensive sensitivity analyses were conducted to identify variables most likely to influence the decision. Structural sensitivity analyses modifying the base case definition and the triggers for cystectomy in the conservative therapy arm were also explored. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis was used to assess the joint uncertainty of all variables simultaneously and the uncertainty in the base case results. External validation of model outputs was performed by comparing model-predicted survival rates with independent published literature. The mean LE of a 60-y-old male was 14.3 y for immediate cystectomy and 13.6 y with conservative management. With the addition of utilities, the immediate cystectomy strategy yielded a mean QALE of 12.32 y and remained preferred over conservative therapy by 0.35 y. Worsening patient comorbidity diminished the benefit of early cystectomy but altered the LE-based preferred treatment only for patients over age 70 y and the QALE-based preferred treatment for patients over age 65 y. Sensitivity analyses revealed that patients

  12. Risk patterns and correlated brain activities. Multidimensional statistical analysis of FMRI data in economic decision making study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Bömmel, Alena; Song, Song; Majer, Piotr; Mohr, Peter N C; Heekeren, Hauke R; Härdle, Wolfgang K

    2014-07-01

    Decision making usually involves uncertainty and risk. Understanding which parts of the human brain are activated during decisions under risk and which neural processes underly (risky) investment decisions are important goals in neuroeconomics. Here, we analyze functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data on 17 subjects who were exposed to an investment decision task from Mohr, Biele, Krugel, Li, and Heekeren (in NeuroImage 49, 2556-2563, 2010b). We obtain a time series of three-dimensional images of the blood-oxygen-level dependent (BOLD) fMRI signals. We apply a panel version of the dynamic semiparametric factor model (DSFM) presented in Park, Mammen, Wolfgang, and Borak (in Journal of the American Statistical Association 104(485), 284-298, 2009) and identify task-related activations in space and dynamics in time. With the panel DSFM (PDSFM) we can capture the dynamic behavior of the specific brain regions common for all subjects and represent the high-dimensional time-series data in easily interpretable low-dimensional dynamic factors without large loss of variability. Further, we classify the risk attitudes of all subjects based on the estimated low-dimensional time series. Our classification analysis successfully confirms the estimated risk attitudes derived directly from subjects' decision behavior. PMID:25205006

  13. “Multi-Criteria Analysis of the Design Decisions In Architectural Design Process during the Pre-Design Stage”

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M.Elango

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Design studio in architectural education is a traditional process, based on the methodology related to the aims and objectives of those respective studio curriculum, and the experience and expectation of the faculty members as what they wants the students to learn, and expected to synthesis their knowledge gained from other sources and previous studio experiences. One of the weaknesses of the traditional studio practice is that the design exercises were given so much attention to the compositional aspects of design rather than attempting to study complex and multi-criteria approach for those decisions. To understand the importance of rational decision method over the intuitive decisions, an architectural studio project was explored with the design brief as to develop a morphological variation to create the alternatives as design solutions. All those design alternatives have been evaluated by different stakeholders namely the fellow students, faculty members, and post graduate students who are mainly the architects. The objective of the evaluation is to develop an empirical analysis and evaluation of framework for assessing the Architectural Design to check is there a correlation between the different value judgment for intuitive method of decision making and rational method of decision making, of the pre design alternatives.

  14. Collaborative environmental planning in river management: An application of multicriteria decision analysis in the White River Watershed in Vermont

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hermans, C.; Erickson, J.; Noordewier, T.; Sheldon, A.; Kline, M.

    2007-01-01

    Multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) provides a well-established family of decision tools to aid stakeholder groups in arriving at collective decisions. MCDA can also function as a framework for the social learning process, serving as an educational aid in decision problems characterized by a high level of public participation. In this paper, the framework and results of a structured decision process using the outranking MCDA methodology preference ranking organization method of enrichment evaluation (PROMETHEE) are presented. PROMETHEE is used to frame multi-stakeholder discussions of river management alternatives for the Upper White River of Central Vermont, in the northeastern United States. Stakeholders met over 10 months to create a shared vision of an ideal river and its services to communities, develop a list of criteria by which to evaluate river management alternatives, and elicit preferences to rank and compare individual and group preferences. The MCDA procedure helped to frame a group process that made stakeholder preferences explicit and substantive discussions about long-term river management possible. ?? 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Portfolio theory and the alternative decision rule of cost-effectiveness analysis: theoretical and practical considerations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sendi, Pedram; Al, Maiwenn J; Gafni, Amiram; Birch, Stephen

    2004-05-01

    Bridges and Terris (Soc. Sci. Med. (2004)) critique our paper on the alternative decision rule of economic evaluation in the presence of uncertainty and constrained resources within the context of a portfolio of health care programs (Sendi et al. Soc. Sci. Med. 57 (2003) 2207). They argue that by not adopting a formal portfolio theory approach we overlook the optimal solution. We show that these arguments stem from a fundamental misunderstanding of the alternative decision rule of economic evaluation. In particular, the portfolio theory approach advocated by Bridges and Terris is based on the same theoretical assumptions that the alternative decision rule set out to relax. Moreover, Bridges and Terris acknowledge that the proposed portfolio theory approach may not identify the optimal solution to resource allocation problems. Hence, it provides neither theoretical nor practical improvements to the proposed alternative decision rule.

  16. Blood transfusions for severe malaria-related anemia in Africa: a decision analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    C.O. Obonyo; E.W. Steyerberg (Ewout); A.J. Oloo; J.D.F. Habbema (Dik)

    1998-01-01

    textabstractSevere childhood malarial anemia is commonly treated using blood transfusion. Although transfusion may decrease short-term mortality, the risk of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) transmission is considerable in Africa. We constructed a decision tree to wei

  17. Analysis and Management of Animal Populations: Modeling, Estimation and Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, B.K.; Nichols, J.D.; Conroy, M.J.

    2002-01-01

    This book deals with the processes involved in making informed decisions about the management of animal populations. It covers the modeling of population responses to management actions, the estimation of quantities needed in the modeling effort, and the application of these estimates and models to the development of sound management decisions. The book synthesizes and integrates in a single volume the methods associated with these themes, as they apply to ecological assessment and conservation of animal populations. KEY FEATURES * Integrates population modeling, parameter estimation and * decision-theoretic approaches to management in a single, cohesive framework * Provides authoritative, state-of-the-art descriptions of quantitative * approaches to modeling, estimation and decision-making * Emphasizes the role of mathematical modeling in the conduct of science * and management * Utilizes a unifying biological context, consistent mathematical notation, * and numerous biological examples

  18. The decision to extract: part II. Analysis of clinicians' stated reasons for extraction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baumrind, S; Korn, E L; Boyd, R L; Maxwell, R

    1996-04-01

    In a recently reported study, the pretreatment records of each subject in a randomized clinical trial of 148 patients with Class I and Class II malocclusions presenting for orthodontic treatment were evaluated independently by five experienced clinicians (drawn from a panel of 14). The clinicians displayed a higher incidence of agreement with each other than had been expected with respect to the decision as to whether extraction was indicated in each specific case. To improve our understanding of how clinicians made their decisions on whether to extract or not, the records of a subset of 72 subjects randomly selected from the full sample of 148, have now been examined in greater detail. In 21 of these cases, all five clinicians decided to treat without extraction. Among the remaining 51 cases, there were 202 decisions to extract (31 unanimous decision cases and 20 split decision cases). The clinicians cited a total of 469 reasons to support these decisions. Crowding was cited as the first reason in 49% of decisions to extract, followed by incisor protrusion (14%), need for profile correction (8%), Class II severity (5%), and achievement of a stable result (5%). When all the reasons for extraction in each clinician's decision were considered as a group, crowding was cited in 73% of decisions, incisor protrusion in 35%, need for profile correction in 27%, Class II severity in 15% and posttreatment stability in 9%. Tooth size anomalies, midline deviations, reduced growth potential, severity of overjet, maintenance of existing profile, desire to close the bite, periodontal problems, and anticipation of poor cooperation accounted collectively for 12% of the first reasons and were mentioned in 54% of the decisions, implying that these considerations play a consequential, if secondary, role in the decision-making process. All other reasons taken together were mentioned in fewer than 20% of cases. In this sample at least, clinicians focused heavily on appearance

  19. A Critical Meta-Analysis of Lens Model Studies in Human Judgment and Decision-Making

    OpenAIRE

    Kaufmann, Esther; Reips, Ulf-Dietrich; Wittmann, Werner W

    2013-01-01

    Achieving accurate judgment (‘judgmental achievement’) is of utmost importance in daily life across multiple domains. The lens model and the lens model equation provide useful frameworks for modeling components of judgmental achievement and for creating tools to help decision makers (e.g., physicians, teachers) reach better judgments (e.g., a correct diagnosis, an accurate estimation of intelligence). Previous meta-analyses of judgment and decision-making studies have attempted to evaluate ov...

  20. A critical meta-analysis of Lens Model Studies in human judgment and decision-making

    OpenAIRE

    Kaufmann, Esther; Reips, Ulf-Dietrich; Wittmann, Werner W

    2013-01-01

    Achieving accurate judgment (‘judgmental achievement’) is of utmost importance in daily life across multiple domains. The lens model and the lens model equation provide useful frameworks for modeling components of judgmental achievement and for creating tools to help decision makers (e.g., physicians, teachers) reach better judgments (e.g., a correct diagnosis, an accurate estimation of intelligence). Previous meta-analyses of judgment and decision-making studies have attempted to evaluate ov...

  1. An agent-based decision support system for ecological-medical situation analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Sokolova, Marina; Fernández Caballero, Antonio

    2007-01-01

    This paper presents an architecture of an agent-based decision support system (ADSS) for ecological-medical situation assessment. The system receives statistical information in form of direct and indirect pollution indicator values. The ultimate goal of the modeled multi-agent system (MAS) is to evaluate the impact of the exposure to pollutants in population health. The proposed ADSS interacts with humans in real-time ?what-if? scenarios, providing the user with evidence for optimal decision ...

  2. Strategic Technological Sourcing Decisions in the Context of Timing and Market Strategies:An Empirical Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Brem, Alexander; Gerhard, D.; Voigt, K.-I.

    2014-01-01

    In times of changing business models and international competition, there is an inherent need forcompanies to foster and develop mechanisms to absorb new technologies for innovative productsand processes effectively. Such considerations lead to the strategic make-or-buy decision whichwas the subject of our research. This quantitative explanatory study in the German industryshows in particular that companies base their decision for internal or external sourcing on multipleweighted criteria wit...

  3. The Link Between Firms? Innovation Decision and the Business Cycle: An Empirical Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Heger, Diana

    2004-01-01

    The sensitivity of innovation activities with respect to the business cycle is often assumed to be small. In this paper the hypothesis on cyclical dependence of innovation activities is tested for firms in the German manufacturing, and additionally for SMEs. To this end firms' innovation decisions are considered. The decision to innovate in one period is modelled via a first-order Markov chain approach. The results suggest that the patterns in innovative behavior are linked to the business cy...

  4. Parent-Child Collaborative Decision Making for the Management of Chronic Illness: A Qualitative Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Miller, Victoria A.

    2009-01-01

    Parent-child collaborative decision making (CDM) is a potentially important precursor to full decision making independence and may be particularly significant for the management of childhood chronic illnesses. The primary aim of this qualitative study was to explore the concept of CDM from the perspective of children and parents. Children (ages 8-19 years) with asthma, type 1 diabetes, or cystic fibrosis and parents of children with these illnesses participated in focus groups and individual ...

  5. Econometric Analysis on Developing Decision to Promote an Investment Object of Small Business

    OpenAIRE

    Cristina Gabriela ZAMFIR; Gianina MIHAI

    2014-01-01

    Econometric applications should be used for decision making on economic issues of the day. One of the most important is access to finance sources, a vital field to the country's economic activity. Accessing funding source involves feasibility studies for decision making on opening funding. Therefore, I decided to approach applied econometrics in the feasibility studies: I avoided advanced software applications, limiting to universally accepted methodology of the World Bank and the functions f...

  6. Evaluating community investments in the mining sector using multi-criteria decision analysis to integrate SIA with business planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gaining senior management's commitment to long-term social development projects, which are characterised by uncertainty and complexity, is made easier if projects are shown to benefit the site's strategic goals. However, even though the business case for community investment may have been accepted at a general level, as a strategy for competitive differentiation, risk mitigation and a desire to deliver - and to be seen to deliver - a 'net benefit' to affected communities, mining operations are still faced with implementation challenges. Case study research on mining companies, including interviews with social investment decision-makers, has assisted in developing the Social Investment Decision Analysis Tool (SIDAT), a decision model for evaluating social projects in order to create value for both the company and the community. Multi-criteria decision analysis techniques integrating business planning processes with social impact assessment have proved useful in assisting mining companies think beyond the traditional drivers (i.e. seeking access to required lands and peaceful relations with neighbours), to broader issues of how they can meet their business goals and contribute to sustainable development in the regions in which they operate

  7. 决策分析中的数据无量纲化方法比较分析%Comparative analysis of data nondimensionalization in decision analysis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    张晓明

    2012-01-01

    决策分析中多属性决策问题的各属性通常具有不同的量纲,不同量纲的不可比较性给决策带来了困难.对数据进行规范化处理能够实现各属性数据的可综合性与可比性.对决策分析中常用的数据规范化方法进行比较分析,提出在不同应用中对最佳规范化方法的选择,能够使得决策方案更加合理、优化.%The dimensions of different attributes of multiple attribute decision problems in decision analysis is often different.And the incommensurability of different dimension makes decision more difficult.To standardize data for each attribute can make the date be comprehensive and comparative.The comparative analysis of different common data standardized methods in decision analysis is made in this paper,and the best choice of standardization methods in different application is proposed in order to let decision scheme more rational and optimizational.

  8. Parent-child collaborative decision making for the management of chronic illness: a qualitative analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Victoria A

    2009-09-01

    Parent-child collaborative decision making (CDM) is a potentially important precursor to full decision-making independence and may be particularly significant for the management of childhood chronic illnesses. The primary aim of this qualitative study was to explore the concept of CDM from the perspective of children and parents. Children (ages 8-19 years) with asthma, type 1 diabetes, or cystic fibrosis and parents of children with these illnesses participated in focus groups and individual interviews. Participants described various ways they collaborate with one another (e.g., asking for the other's opinion; providing information). Participants viewed collaboration as beneficial, regardless of who ultimately makes the decision. Several factors emerged as potential predictors of CDM, including parent/family factors (e.g., parental time; parent-child conflict), child factors (e.g., maturity; emotional/behavioral functioning), and decision/situation factors (e.g., seriousness of the decision; extent to which the child is experiencing symptoms). These data suggest ways to enhance collaborative decision-making interactions between children with a chronic illness and their parents, as well as several areas for future quantitative research. PMID:19803619

  9. A decision analytical cost analysis of offering ECV in a UK district general hospital

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Burr Robin

    2001-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Objective To determine the care pathways and implications of offering mothers the choice of external cephalic version (ECV at term for singleton babies who present with an uncomplicated breech pregnancy versus assisted breech delivery or elective caesarean. Design A prospective observational audit to construct a decision analysis of uncomplicated full term breech presentations. Setting The North Staffordshire NHS Trust. Subjects All women (n = 176 who presented at full term with a breech baby without complications during July 1995 and June 1997. Main outcome measures The study determined to compare the outcome in terms of the costs and cost consequences for the care pathways that resulted from whether a women chose to accept the offer of ECV or not. All the associated events were then mapped for the two possible pathways. The costs were considered only within the hospital setting, from the perspective of the health care provider up to the point of delivery. Results The additional costs for ECV, assisted breech delivery and elective caesarean over and above a normal birth were £186.70, £425.36 and £1,955.22 respectively. The total expected cost of the respective care pathways for "ECV accepted" and "ECV not accepted" (including the probability of adverse events were £1,452 and £1,828 respectively, that is the cost of delivery through the ECV care pathways is less costly than the non ECV delivery care pathway. Conclusions Implementing an ECV service may yield cost savings in secondary care over and above the traditional delivery methods for breech birth of assisted delivery or caesarean section. The scale of these expected cost savings are in the range of £248 to £376 per patient. This converts to a total expected cost saving of between £43,616 and £44,544 for the patient cohort considered in this study.

  10. Chi-squared Automatic Interaction Detection Decision Tree Analysis of Risk Factors for Infant Anemia in Beijing, China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Fang Ye; Zhi-Hua Chen; Jie Chen; Fang Liu; Yong Zhang; Qin-Ying Fan; Lin Wang

    2016-01-01

    Background:In the past decades,studies on infant anemia have mainly focused on rural areas of China.With the increasing heterogeneity of population in recent years,available information on infant anemia is inconclusive in large cities of China,especially with comparison between native residents and floating population.This population-based cross-sectional study was implemented to determine the anemic status of infants as well as the risk factors in a representative downtown area of Beijing.Methods:As useful methods to build a predictive model,Chi-squared automatic interaction detection (CHAID) decision tree analysis and logistic regression analysis were introduced to explore risk factors of infant anemia.A total of 1091 infants aged 6-12 months together with their parents/caregivers living at Heping Avenue Subdistrict of Beijing were surveyed from January 1,2013 to December 31,2014.Results:The prevalence of anemia was 12.60% with a range of 3.47%-40.00% in different subgroup characteristics.The CHAID decision tree model has demonstrated multilevel interaction among risk factors through stepwise pathways to detect anemia.Besides the three predictors identified by logistic regression model including maternal anemia during pregnancy,exclusive breastfeeding in the first 6 months,and floating population,CHAID decision tree analysis also identified the fourth risk factor,the matemal educational level,with higher overall classification accuracy and larger area below the receiver operating characteristic curve.Conclusions:The infant anemic status in metropolis is complex and should be carefully considered by the basic health care practitioners.CHAID decision tree analysis has demonstrated a better performance in hierarchical analysis of population with great heterogeneity.Risk factors identified by this study might be meaningful in the early detection and prompt treatment of infant anemia in large cities.

  11. 78 FR 46312 - Spruce Beetle Epidemic and Aspen Decline Management Response; Grand Mesa, Uncompahgre and...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-07-31

    ... Forest Service Spruce Beetle Epidemic and Aspen Decline Management Response; Grand Mesa, Uncompahgre and...,000 acres of aspen forests have experienced substantial mortality from insects and diseases over the..., juniper and ponderosa pine to Engelmann spruce, subalpine fir, and quaking aspen. Tree ring records...

  12. Transportation of the MOAB Uranium Mill Tailings to White Mesa Mill by Slurry Pipeline

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hochstein, R. F.; Warner, R.; Wetz, T. V.

    2003-02-26

    The Moab uranium mill tailings pile, located at the former Atlas Minerals Corporation site approximately three miles north of Moab, Utah, is now under the control of the US Department of Energy (''DOE''). The location of the tailings pile adjacent to the Colorado River, and the ongoing contamination of groundwater and seepage of pollutants into the river, have lead to the investigation, as part of the final site remediation program, of alternatives to relocate the tailings to a qualified permanent disposal site. This paper will describe the approach being taken by the team formed between International Uranium (USA) Corporation (''IUC'') and Washington Group International (''WGINT'') to develop an innovative technical proposal to relocate the Moab tailings to IUC's White Mesa Mill south of Blanding, Utah. The proposed approach for relocating the tailings involves using a slurry pipeline to transport the tailings to the White Mesa Mill. The White Mesa Mill is a fully licensed, active uranium mill site that is uniquely suited for permanent disposal of the Moab tailings. The tailings slurry would be dewatered at the White Mesa Mill, the slurry water would be recycled to the Moab site for reuse in slurry makeup, and the ''dry'' tailings would be permanently disposed of in an approved below grade cell at the mill site.

  13. GeoMesa: a distributed architecture for spatio-temporal fusion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hughes, James N.; Annex, Andrew; Eichelberger, Christopher N.; Fox, Anthony; Hulbert, Andrew; Ronquest, Michael

    2015-05-01

    Recent advances in distributed databases and computing have transformed the landscape of spatio-temporal machine learning. This paper presents GeoMesa, a distributed spatio-temporal database built on top of Hadoop and column-family databases such as Accumulo and HBase, that includes a suite of tools for indexing, managing and analyzing both vector and raster data. The indexing techniques use space filling curves to map multi-dimensional data to the single lexicographic list managed by the underlying distributed database. In contrast to traditional non-distributed RDBMS, GeoMesa is capable of scaling horizontally by adding more resources at runtime; the index rebalances across the additional resources. In the raster domain, GeoMesa leverages Accumulo's server-side iterators and aggregators to perform raster interpolation and associative map algebra operations in parallel at query time. The paper concludes with two geo-time data fusion examples: using GeoMesa to aggregate Twitter data by keywords; and georegistration to drape full-motion video (FMV) over terrain.

  14. 77 FR 18997 - Rim Lakes Forest Restoration Project; Apache-Sitgreavese National Forest, Black Mesa Ranger...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-03-29

    ... Forest Service Rim Lakes Forest Restoration Project; Apache-Sitgreavese National Forest, Black Mesa... to meet the purpose, this project includes a site- specific, forest plan amendment to the Apache..., Overgaard, AZ 85933. Comments may also be sent via email to...

  15. 75 FR 46945 - Proposed Collection; Comment Request; Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) Event...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-08-04

    ... Atherosclerosis (MESA) Event Surveillance SUMMARY: In compliance with the requirement of Section 3506(c)(2)(A) of... Budget (OMB) for review and approval. Proposed Collection: Title: Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis... and progression of subclinical cardiovascular disease (CVD)-- that is, atherosclerosis and other...

  16. Sociodemographic correlates of cognition in the multi-ethnic study of atherosclerosis (MESA)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Our objective was to describe the methodology utilized to evaluate cognitive function in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) and to present preliminary results by age, sex, and race/ethnicity. Cross-sectional measurements of a prospective observational cohort. Residents of 6 U.S. commun...

  17. Mesa-height Dependent Quantum Efficiency Characteristics of InGaN Micro-LEDs

    KAUST Repository

    Shen, Chao

    2013-01-01

    The mechanisms of mesa-height dependent efficiency and efficiency droop of blue InGaN/GaN micro-LED is presented. Device with a large etch-depth (> 1.3 µm) shows significant strain relief with aggravated current crowding.

  18. ERDA test facilities, East Mesa Test Site. Geothermal resource investigations, Imperial Valley, California

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1976-01-01

    Detailed specifications which must be complied with in the construction of the ERDA Test Facilities at the East Mesa Site for geothermal resource investigations in Imperial Valley, California are presented for use by prospective bidders for the construction contract. The principle construction work includes a 700 gpm cooling tower with its associated supports and equipment, pipelines from wells, electrical equipment, and all earthwork. (LCL)

  19. Techno-economic analysis and decision making for PHEV benefits to society, consumers, policymakers and automakers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al-Alawi, Baha Mohammed

    Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) are an emerging automotive technology that has the capability to reduce transportation environmental impacts, but at an increased production cost. PHEVs can draw and store energy from an electric grid and consequently show reductions in petroleum consumption, air emissions, ownership costs, and regulation compliance costs, and various other externalities. Decision makers in the policy, consumer, and industry spheres would like to understand the impact of HEV and PHEV technologies on the U.S. vehicle fleets, but to date, only the disciplinary characteristics of PHEVs been considered. The multidisciplinary tradeoffs between vehicle energy sources, policy requirements, market conditions, consumer preferences and technology improvements are not well understood. For example, the results of recent studies have posited the importance of PHEVs to the future US vehicle fleet. No studies have considered the value of PHEVs to automakers and policy makers as a tool for achieving US corporate average fuel economy (CAFE) standards which are planned to double by 2030. Previous studies have demonstrated the cost and benefit of PHEVs but there is no study that comprehensively accounts for the cost and benefits of PHEV to consumers. The diffusion rate of hybrid electric vehicle (HEV) and PHEV technology into the marketplace has been estimated by existing studies using various tools and scenarios, but results show wide variations between studies. There is no comprehensive modeling study that combines policy, consumers, society and automakers in the U.S. new vehicle sales cost and benefits analysis. The aim of this research is to build a potential framework that can simulate and optimize the benefits of PHEVs for a multiplicity of stakeholders. This dissertation describes the results of modeling that integrates the effects of PHEV market penetration on policy, consumer and economic spheres. A model of fleet fuel economy and CAFE compliance for

  20. An entropy-based multi-criterion group decision analysis method of selecting the optimum weak-subgrade treatment

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LUO Jun-jun; ZHENG Jun-jie; SUN Ling; ZHANG Shi-biao

    2008-01-01

    Proper treatment of weak subgrade soil is very important to building a highway of good quality. We proposed an entropy-based multi-criterion group decision analysis method for a group of experts to evaluate alternatives of weak subgrade treatment, with an aim to select the optimum technique which is technically, economically and socially viable. We used fuzzy theory to analyze multiple experts' evaluation on various factors of each alterative treatment. Different experts' evaluations are integrated by the group eigenvalue method. An entropy weight is introduced to minimize the negative influences of subjective human factors of experts. The optimum alternative is identified with ideal point discriminant analysis to calculate the distance of each alternative to the ideal point and prioritize all alternatives according to their distances. A case study on a section of the Shiman Expressway verified that the proposed method can give a rational decision on the optimum method of weak subgrade treatment.

  1. Completion Report for Well ER-EC-14, Corrective Action Units 101 and 102: Central and Western Pahute Mesa

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2013-03-05

    709.6 m of Tertiary volcanic rocks. The stratigraphy and general lithology were not as expected due to the position of Well ER-EC-14 relative to the buried caldera margins of the Timber Mountain caldera complex. The well is located inside the Rainier Mesa caldera, but outside the younger Ammonia Tanks caldera. On November 5, 2012, a preliminary fluid level in the shallow piezometer string was measured at the depth of 311.8 m. This water level depth was taken before installation of the bridge plug (to be placed within the main completion casing to separate the two slotted zones). Well development, hydrologic testing, and sampling, will be conducted at a later date. No tritium above levels detectable by field methods were encountered in this hole. All Fluid Management Plan (FMP) requirements for Well ER-EC-14 were met. Analysis of monitoring samples and FMP confirmatory samples indicated that fluids generated during drilling at Well ER-EC-14 met the FMP criteria for discharge to an unlined sump or designated infiltration area. All sanitary and hydrocarbon waste generated was properly handled and disposed of.

  2. Analysis of Phase Transition in Traffic Flow based on a New Model of Driving Decision

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    PENG Yu; SHANG Hua-Yan; LU Hua-Pu

    2011-01-01

    Different driving decisions will cause different processes of phase transition in traffic flow. To reveal the inner mechanism, this paper built a new cellular automaton (CA) model, based on the driving decision (DD). In the DD model, a driver's decision is divided into three stages: decision-making, action, and result. The acceleration is taken as a decision variable and three core factors, i.e. distance between adjacent vehicles, their own velocity, and the preceding vehicle's velocity, are considered. Simulation results show that the DD model can simulate the synchronized flow effectively and describe the phase transition in traffic flow well. Further analyses illustrate that various density will cause the phase transition and the random probability will impact the process. Compared with the traditional NaSch model, the DD model considered the preceding vehicle's velocity, the deceleration limitation, and a safe distance, so it can depict closer to the driver preferences on pursuing safety, stability and fuel-saving and has strong theoretical innovation for future studies.

  3. Analysis of Phase Transition in Traffic Flow based on a New Model of Driving Decision

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peng, Yu; Shang, Hua-Yan; Lu, Hua-Pu

    2011-07-01

    Different driving decisions will cause different processes of phase transition in traffic flow. To reveal the inner mechanism, this paper built a new cellular automaton (CA) model, based on the driving decision (DD). In the DD model, a driver's decision is divided into three stages: decision-making, action, and result. The acceleration is taken as a decision variable and three core factors, i.e. distance between adjacent vehicles, their own velocity, and the preceding vehicle's velocity, are considered. Simulation results show that the DD model can simulate the synchronized flow effectively and describe the phase transition in traffic flow well. Further analyses illustrate that various density will cause the phase transition and the random probability will impact the process. Compared with the traditional NaSch model, the DD model considered the preceding vehicle's velocity, the deceleration limitation, and a safe distance, so it can depict closer to the driver preferences on pursuing safety, stability and fuel-saving and has strong theoretical innovation for future studies.

  4. Image Analysis Approach for Development of a Decision Support System for Detection of Malaria Parasites in Thin Blood Smear Images

    OpenAIRE

    Prasad, Keerthana; Winter, Jan; Bhat, Udayakrishna M.; Raviraja V Acharya; Prabhu, Gopalakrishna K.

    2011-01-01

    This paper describes development of a decision support system for diagnosis of malaria using color image analysis. A hematologist has to study around 100 to 300 microscopic views of Giemsa-stained thin blood smear images to detect malaria parasites, evaluate the extent of infection and to identify the species of the parasite. The proposed algorithm picks up the suspicious regions and detects the parasites in images of all the views. The subimages representing all these parasites are put toget...

  5. New findings on unconscious versus conscious thought in decision making: additional empirical data and meta-analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Felix Acker

    2008-01-01

    Ninety-eight Australian students participated in a functional replication of a study published by Dijksterhuis et al.\\ (2006). The results indicated that unconscious thought does not necessarily lead to better normative decision making performance than conscious thought, which is contrary to the results found in Dijksterhuis et al. Since other studies showed a positive, though statistically not significant, effect for unconscious thought, a meta-analysis comprising a total of 17 experiments w...

  6. Ethical Analysis for Evaluating Sustainable Business Decisions: The Case of Environmental Impact Evaluation in the Inambari Hydropower Project

    OpenAIRE

    Julian Rode; Marc Le Menestrel; Luk Van Wassenhove; Anthony Simon

    2015-01-01

    We propose an ethical analysis as a method to reflect on how companies’ decisions promote sustainable development. The method proceeds by first identifying the choice according to financial business interests, and by then scrutinizing this choice according to consequentialist and deontological ethics. The paper applies the method to the choice of an Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) that a consortium of Brazilian companies (EGASUR) delivered as part of their project proposal for the rea...

  7. How robust is a robust policy? A comparative analysis of alternative robustness metrics for supporting robust decision analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwakkel, Jan; Haasnoot, Marjolijn

    2015-04-01

    performance of a candidate plan with the performance of other candidate plans across a large ensemble of plausible futures. Initial results suggest that the simplest satisficing metric, inspired by the signal to noise ratio, results in very risk averse solutions. Other satisficing metrics, which handle the average performance and the dispersion around the average separately, provide substantial additional insights into the trade off between the average performance, and the dispersion around this average. In contrast, the regret-based metrics enhance insight into the relative merits of candidate plans, while being less clear on the average performance or the dispersion around this performance. These results suggest that it is beneficial to use multiple robustness metrics when doing a robust decision analysis study. Haasnoot, M., J. H. Kwakkel, W. E. Walker and J. Ter Maat (2013). "Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways: A New Method for Crafting Robust Decisions for a Deeply Uncertain World." Global Environmental Change 23(2): 485-498. Kwakkel, J. H., M. Haasnoot and W. E. Walker (2014). "Developing Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways: A computer-assisted approach for developing adaptive strategies for a deeply uncertain world." Climatic Change.

  8. Phase I Transport Model of Corrective Action Units 101 and 102: Central and Western Pahute Mesa, Nevada Test Site, Nye County, Nevada with Errata Sheet 1, 2, 3, Revision 1

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Greg Ruskauff

    2009-02-01

    As prescribed in the Pahute Mesa Corrective Action Investigation Plan (CAIP) (DOE/NV, 1999) and Appendix VI of the Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order (FFACO) (1996, as amended February 2008), the ultimate goal of transport analysis is to develop stochastic predictions of a contaminant boundary at a specified level of uncertainty. However, because of the significant uncertainty of the model results, the primary goal of this report was modified through mutual agreement between the DOE and the State of Nevada to assess the primary model components that contribute to this uncertainty and to postpone defining the contaminant boundary until additional model refinement is completed. Therefore, the role of this analysis has been to understand the behavior of radionuclide migration in the Pahute Mesa (PM) Corrective Action Unit (CAU) model and to define, both qualitatively and quantitatively, the sensitivity of such behavior to (flow) model conceptualization and (flow and transport) parameterization.

  9. Implications of Decision Making Research for Decision Support and Displays

    OpenAIRE

    Morrison, Jeffrey G.; Kelly, Richard T.; Moore, Ronald A.; Hutchins, Susan G.

    1998-01-01

    To appear in J. A. Cannon-Bowers & E. Salas (Eds.), Decision Making Under Stress: Implications for Training and Simulation. A prototype decision support system (DSS) was developed to enhance Navy tactical decision making based on naturalistic decision processes. Displays were developed to support critical decision making tasks through recognition-primed and explanation-based reasoning processes, and cognitive analysis was conducted of the decision making problems faced by Navy ...

  10. The benefits of global scaling in multi-criteria decision analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jamie P. Monat

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available When there are multiple competing objectives in a decision-making process, Multi-Attribute Choice scoring models are excellent tools, permitting the incorporation of both subjective and objective attributes. However, their accuracy depends upon the subjective techniques used to construct the attribute scales and their concomitant weights. Conventional techniques using local scales tend to overemphasize small differences in attribute measures, which may yield erroneous conclusions. The Range Sensitivity Principle (RSP is often invoked to adjust attribute weights when local scales are used. In practice, however, decision makers often do not follow the prescriptions of the Range Sensitivity Principle and under-adjust the weights, resulting in potentially poor decisions. Examples are discussed as is a proposed solution: the use of global scales instead of local scales.

  11. Assessment of providers' referral decisions in Rural Burkina Faso: a retrospective analysis of medical records

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ilboudo Tegawende

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background A well-functioning referral system is fundamental to primary health care delivery. Understanding the providers' referral decision-making process becomes critical. This study's aim was to assess the correctness of diagnoses and appropriateness of the providers' referral decisions from health centers (HCs to district hospitals (DHs among patients with severe malaria and pneumonia. Methods A record review of twelve months of consultations was conducted covering eight randomly selected HCs to identify severe malaria (SM cases among children under five and pneumonia cases among adults. The correctness of the diagnosis and appropriateness of providers' referral decisions were determined using the National Clinical Guidebook as a 'gold standard'. Results Among the 457 SM cases affecting children under five, only 66 cases (14.4% were correctly diagnosed and of those 66 correctly diagnosed cases, 40 cases (60.6% received an appropriate referral decision from their providers. Within these 66 correctly diagnosed SM cases, only 60.6% were appropriately referred. Among the adult pneumonia cases, 5.9% (79/1331 of the diagnoses were correctly diagnosed; however, the appropriateness rate of the provider's referral decision was 98.7% (78/79. There was only one case that should not have been referred but was referred. Conclusions The adherence to the National Guidelines among the health center providers when making a diagnosis was low for both severe malaria cases and pneumonia cases. The appropriateness of the referral decisions was particularly poor for children with severe malaria. Health center providers need to be better trained in the diagnostic process and in disease management in order to improve the performance of the referral system in rural Burkina Faso.

  12. Retrospective value analysis of decision support benefits from a production planning system for a brewery

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H.W. Ittmann

    2003-12-01

    Full Text Available A decision support system for production planning in a brewing company was developed to assist with the planning of brewing, packaging and distribution of beer and to minimise production costs. Having been in operation for some time, the system has changed and adapted in a very dynamic environment. The system's present form and current use are discussed. Initial management approval for system development was based on faith rather than proper cost-benefit and value analyses. This paper aims at retrospectively highlighting these values and benefits with regard to supporting decision-making in the company.

  13. Completion Report for Well ER-20-4 Corrective Action Units 101 and 102: Central and Western Pahute Mesa

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NSTec Environmental Management

    2011-04-30

    Well ER-20-4 was drilled for the U.S. Department of Energy, National Nuclear Security Administration Nevada Site Office in support of the Nevada Environmental Restoration Project at the Nevada National Security Site, Nye County, Nevada. The well was drilled in August and September 2010 as part of the Pahute Mesa Phase II drilling program. The primary purpose of the well was to investigate the possibility of radionuclide transport from up-gradient underground nuclear tests conducted in central Pahute Mesa. This well also provided detailed hydrogeologic information in the Tertiary volcanic section that will help reduce uncertainties within the Pahute Mesa-Oasis Valley hydrostratigraphic framework model.

  14. Analysis of the impact of recreational trail usage for prioritising management decisions: a regression tree approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tomczyk, Aleksandra; Ewertowski, Marek; White, Piran; Kasprzak, Leszek

    2016-04-01

    The dual role of many Protected Natural Areas in providing benefits for both conservation and recreation poses challenges for management. Although recreation-based damage to ecosystems can occur very quickly, restoration can take many years. The protection of conservation interests at the same as providing for recreation requires decisions to be made about how to prioritise and direct management actions. Trails are commonly used to divert visitors from the most important areas of a site, but high visitor pressure can lead to increases in trail width and a concomitant increase in soil erosion. Here we use detailed field data on condition of recreational trails in Gorce National Park, Poland, as the basis for a regression tree analysis to determine the factors influencing trail deterioration, and link specific trail impacts with environmental, use related and managerial factors. We distinguished 12 types of trails, characterised by four levels of degradation: (1) trails with an acceptable level of degradation; (2) threatened trails; (3) damaged trails; and (4) heavily damaged trails. Damaged trails were the most vulnerable of all trails and should be prioritised for appropriate conservation and restoration. We also proposed five types of monitoring of recreational trail conditions: (1) rapid inventory of negative impacts; (2) monitoring visitor numbers and variation in type of use; (3) change-oriented monitoring focusing on sections of trail which were subjected to changes in type or level of use or subjected to extreme weather events; (4) monitoring of dynamics of trail conditions; and (5) full assessment of trail conditions, to be carried out every 10-15 years. The application of the proposed framework can enhance the ability of Park managers to prioritise their trail management activities, enhancing trail conditions and visitor safety, while minimising adverse impacts on the conservation value of the ecosystem. A.M.T. was supported by the Polish Ministry of

  15. Analysis of Publication Decisions for "Journal of Research in Music Education" Manuscripts (2009-2014)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sims, Wendy L.; Lordo, Jackie; Phelps, Cynthia Williams

    2016-01-01

    The primary purpose of this study was to investigate characteristics of manuscripts submitted to the "Journal of Research in Music Education" (JRME) representing various research methodologies. A database was compiled comprising all manuscripts that received a publication decision from February 2009 through March 2014 (N = 506). Only…

  16. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF FUZZY METAGRAPH BASED DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM FOR CAPITAL MARKET

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anbalagan Thirunavukarasu

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This study proposes a Fuzzy Metagraph based Decision Support System (DSS for short term and long term investment in share market. This rule base decision system will help traders to make correct decision at very low risk. Relative Strength Index (RSI, Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD and WILLIAM- %R are some of the Technical Indicators which are used as input to train the system which is integrated with Fuzzy Metagraph. This approach of incorporating Fuzzy Metagraph with RSI, MACD and WILLIAM-%R would be a new attempt in decision making on share market investment. Stocks listed in Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE in India are used to evaluate the performance of the system. The results obtained from the proposed Fuzzy Metagraph based model are found to be satisfactory with very low risk. Three most used technical indicators MACD, RSI and WILLIAM-%R integrated with Fuzzy Metagraph are used to support the system. This method reduces the risk factor considerably for both short term and long term investors.

  17. Decision Making in Special Education: The Function of Meta-Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kavale, Kenneth A.

    2001-01-01

    This article uses meta-analytic findings to evaluate six special education interventions: psycholinguistic training, perceptual-motor training, modality-matched instruction, and treatments for attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (stimulant medication, diet modification, and social skills training). Findings are related to decision making in…

  18. A Qualitative Analysis of Parental Decision-Making in Regards to Homeschooling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campbell, Pamela Lou Rogers

    2012-01-01

    Researchers have spent a relatively small amount of time focusing on homeschooling. The few studies which have been completed regarding homeschooling have skirted the question of the decision-making process taken by parents as they choose to begin or discontinue homeschooling. The void in the academic knowledge regarding this growing trend in…

  19. Combining remote sensing and economic analysis to support decisions that affect water productivity

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hellegers, P.J.G.J.; Soppe, R.; Perry, C.J.; Bastiaanssen, W.G.M.

    2008-01-01

    In this paper, an innovative method—that combines a technical and socio-economic analysis—is presented to assess the implications of policy decisions on water productivity. In the technical part, the variability in crop water productivity (CWP) is analyzed on the basis of actual water consumption an

  20. Analysis of the Construct Validity and Measurement Invariance of the Career Decision Self-Efficacy Scale

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Makransky, Guido; Rogers, Mary E.; Creed, Peter E.

    2015-01-01

    The Career Decision Self-Efficacy Scale – Short Form (CDSE-SF) is one of the most frequently used instruments to assess individual levels of career-related self-efficacy. The present study used the partial credit model within the framework of item response theory to examine the content, structural...