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Sample records for analysis mesa decision

  1. Marine Ecosystems Analysis (MESA) Program, New York Bight Surficial Sediment Analyses

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Marine Ecosystems Analysis (MESA) Program, New York Bight Study was funded by NOAA and the Bureau of Land Management (BLM). The Atlas was a historical...

  2. MESA: Message-Based System Analysis Using Runtime Verification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shafiei, Nastaran; Tkachuk, Oksana; Mehlitz, Peter

    2017-01-01

    In this paper, we present a novel approach and framework for run-time verication of large, safety critical messaging systems. This work was motivated by verifying the System Wide Information Management (SWIM) project of the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). SWIM provides live air traffic, site and weather data streams for the whole National Airspace System (NAS), which can easily amount to several hundred messages per second. Such safety critical systems cannot be instrumented, therefore, verification and monitoring has to happen using a nonintrusive approach, by connecting to a variety of network interfaces. Due to a large number of potential properties to check, the verification framework needs to support efficient formulation of properties with a suitable Domain Specific Language (DSL). Our approach is to utilize a distributed system that is geared towards connectivity and scalability and interface it at the message queue level to a powerful verification engine. We implemented our approach in the tool called MESA: Message-Based System Analysis, which leverages the open source projects RACE (Runtime for Airspace Concept Evaluation) and TraceContract. RACE is a platform for instantiating and running highly concurrent and distributed systems and enables connectivity to SWIM and scalability. TraceContract is a runtime verication tool that allows for checking traces against properties specified in a powerful DSL. We applied our approach to verify a SWIM service against several requirements.We found errors such as duplicate and out-of-order messages.

  3. Analysis of Well ER-EC-1 Testing, Western Pahute Mesa-Oasis Valley FY 2000 Testing Program

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2002-09-30

    This report documents the analysis of the data collected for Well ER-EC-1 during the Western Pahute Mesa - Oasis Valley (WPM-OV) well development and testing program that was conducted during fiscal year (FY) 2000. The data collection for that program is documented in Appendix A, Western Pahute Mesa - Oasis Valley, Well ER-EC-1 Data Report for Development and Hydraulic Testing.

  4. Analysis of well ER-18-2 testing, Western Pahute Mesa - Oasis Valley FY 2000 testing program

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2002-09-30

    This report documents the analysis of the data collected for Well ER-18-2 during the Western Pahute Mesa - Oasis Valley (WPM-OV) well development and testing program that was conducted during fiscal year (FY) 2000. The data collection for that program is documented in Appendix A, Western Pahute Mesa - Oasis Valley, Well ER-18-2 Data Report for Development and Hydraulic Testing.

  5. Analysis of Well ER-EC-7 Testing, Western Pahute Mesa - Oasis Valley FY 2000 Testing Program

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2002-09-30

    This report documents the analysis of the data collected for Well ER-EC-7 during the Western Pahute Mesa - Oasis Valley (WPM-OV) well development and testing program that was conducted during fiscal year (FY) 2000. The data collection for that program was documented in Appendix A, Western Pahute Mesa - Oasis Valley, Well ER-EC-7 Data Report for Development and Hydraulic Testing.

  6. Analysis of Well ER-EC-8 testing, Western Pahute Mesa-Oasis Valley FY 2000 testing program

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2002-09-30

    This report documents the analysis of the data collected for Well ER-EC-8 during the Western Pahute Mesa - Oasis Valley (WPM-OV) well development and testing program that was conducted during fiscal year (FY) 2000. The data collection for that program is documented in Appendix A, Western Pahute Mesa-Oasis Valley, Well ER-EC-8 Data Report for development and Hydraulic Testing.

  7. Analysis of Well ER-EC-4 Testing, Western Pahute Mesa-Oasis Valley FY 2000 Testing Program

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2002-09-30

    This report documents the analysis of the data collected for Well ER-EC-4 during the Western Pahute Mesa-Oasis Valley (WPM-OV) well development and testing program that was conducted during fiscal year (FY) 2000. The data collection for that program is documented in Appendix A, Western Pahute Mesa - Oasis Valley, Well ER-EC-4 Data Report for Development and Hydraulic Testing.

  8. Analysis of Well ER-EC-5 Testing, Western Pahute Mesa-Oasis Valley FY 2000 Testing Program

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2002-09-30

    This report documents the analysis of the data collected for Well ER-EC-5 during the Western Pahute Mesa - Oasis Valley (WPM-OV) well development and testing program that was conducted during fiscal year (FY) 2000. The data collection for that program is documented in Appendix A, Western Pahute Mesa - Oasis Valley, Well ER-EC-5 Data Report for Development and Hydraulic Testing.

  9. Analysis of Well ER-EC-6 Testing, Western Pahute Mesa - Oasis Valley FY 2000 Testing Program

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2002-09-30

    This report documents the analysis of the data collected for Well ER-EC-6 during the Western Pahute Mesa-Oasis Valley (WPM-OV) well development and testing program that was conducted during fiscal year (FY) 2000. The data collection for that program is documented in Appendix A, Western Pahute Mesa-Oasis Valley, Well ER-EC-6 Data Report for Development and Hydraulic Testing.

  10. Analysis of Well ER-EC-2a Testing, Western Pahute Mesa-Oasis Valley FY 2000 Testing Program

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2002-09-30

    This report documents the analysis of the data collected for Well ER-EC-2a during the Western Pahute Mesa - Oasis Valley (WPM-OV) well development and testing program that was conducted during fiscal year (FY) 2000. The data collection for that program is documented in Appendix A, Western Pahute Mesa - Oasis Valley, Well ER-EC-2a Data Report for Development and Hydraulic Testing.

  11. Decision analysis multicriteria analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lombard, J.

    1986-09-01

    The ALARA procedure covers a wide range of decisions from the simplest to the most complex one. For the simplest one the engineering judgement is generally enough and the use of a decision aiding technique is therefore not necessary. For some decisions the comparison of the available protection option may be performed from two or a few criteria (or attributes) (protection cost, collective dose,...) and the use of rather simple decision aiding techniques, like the Cost Effectiveness Analysis or the Cost Benefit Analysis, is quite enough. For the more complex decisions, involving numerous criteria or for decisions involving large uncertainties or qualitative judgement the use of these techniques, even the extended cost benefit analysis, is not recommended and appropriate techniques like multi-attribute decision aiding techniques are more relevant. There is a lot of such particular techniques and it is not possible to present all of them. Therefore only two broad categories of multi-attribute decision aiding techniques will be presented here: decision analysis and the outranking analysis

  12. Mesa antivibraciones

    OpenAIRE

    Moreno Vidorreta, Iván

    2010-01-01

    El objeto de este proyecto es el diseño y la construcción de una mesa antivibraciones. Las vibraciones (ruido) provienen de la tierra o de vibraciones sísmicas y existen en todos los ambientes del mundo. Este ruido tiene varias fuentes: las olas rompiendo en las costas costeras, la rutina constante de las placas tectónicas, el viento sopla los árboles y edificios, de las fuentes artificiales, como maquinaria, sistemas de climatización, el tráfico de la calle e incluso la ...

  13. Mesa redonda

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roberto Lira Olmo

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available En relación al tema central del presente número de la Revista Urbano, la "Identidad Urbana", el Comité Editorial de la misma estimó en su oportunidad de gran interés reunir en una Mesa Redonda a destacados intelectuales, académicos y profesionales que, de una u otra forma, están vinculados por su trabajo, investigación e inquietudes personales con este apasionante tema del cual existen tantas y tan variadas concepciones.

  14. Analysis of tracer responses in the BULLION Forced-Gradient Experiment at Pahute Mesa, Nevada

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Paul W. Reimus; Marc J. Haga

    1999-10-01

    This report presents an analysis of the tracer data from the BULLION forced-gradient experiment (FGE) conducted on Pahute Mesa at the Nevada Test Site from June 2, 1997 through August 28, 1997, for the Underground Test Area (UGTA) Program. It also serves to document the polystyrene microsphere data from the FGE. The FGE involved the injection of solute and colloid tracers into wells ER-20-6 No. 1 and ER-20-6 No. 2 while ER-20-6 No. 3 was pumped at approximately 116 gallons per minute (gpm). The experimental configuration and test design are described briefly in this report; more details are provided elsewhere (IT, 1996, 1997, 1998). The tracer responses in the various wells yielded valuable information about transport processes such as longitudinal dispersion, matrix diffusion and colloid transport in the hydrogeologic system in the vicinity of the BULLION nuclear test cavity. Parameter values describing these processes are derived from the semi-analytical model interpretations presented in this report. A companion report (IT, 1998) presents more detailed numerical modeling interpretations of the solute tracer responses.

  15. Plutonium-238 Decision Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brown, Mike; Lechel, David J.; Leigh, C.D.

    1999-01-01

    Five transuranic (TRU) waste sites in the Department of Energy (DOE) complex, collectively, have more than 2,100 cubic meters of Plutonium-238 (Pu-238) TRU waste that exceed the wattage restrictions of the Transuranic Package Transporter-II (TRUPACT-11). The Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) is being developed by the DOE as a repository for TRU waste. With the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) opening in 1999, these sites are faced with a need to develop waste management practices that will enable the transportation of Pu-238 TRU waste to WIPP for disposal. This paper describes a decision analysis that provided a logical framework for addressing the Pu-238 TRU waste issue. The insights that can be gained by performing a formalized decision analysis are multifold. First and foremost, the very process. of formulating a decision tree forces the decision maker into structured, logical thinking where alternatives can be evaluated one against the other using a uniform set of criteria. In the process of developing the decision tree for transportation of Pu-238 TRU waste, several alternatives were eliminated and the logical order for decision making was discovered. Moreover, the key areas of uncertainty for proposed alternatives were identified and quantified. The decision analysis showed that the DOE can employ a combination approach where they will (1) use headspace gas analyses to show that a fraction of the Pu-238 TRU waste drums are no longer generating hydrogen gas and can be shipped to WIPP ''as-is'', (2) use drums and bags with advanced filter systems to repackage Pu-238 TRU waste drums that are still generating hydrogen, and (3) add hydrogen getter materials to the inner containment vessel of the TRUPACT-11to relieve the build-up of hydrogen gas during transportation of the Pu-238 TRU waste drums

  16. Summary of micrographic analysis of fracture coating phases on drill cores from Pahute Mesa, Nevada Test Site. Revision 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1998-12-01

    The flow path between Pahute Mesa and the groundwater discharge area in Oasis Valley (approximately 18 miles to the southwest) is of concern due to the relatively short travel distance between a recharge area where underground nuclear testing has been conducted and the off-site water users. Groundwater flow and transport modeling by IT Corporation (IT) has shown rapid tritium transport in the volcanic rock aquifers along this flow path. The resultant estimates of rapid transport were based on water level data, limited hydraulic conductivity data, estimates of groundwater discharge rates in Oasis Valley, assumed porosities, and estimated retardation rates. Many of these parameters are poorly constrained and may vary considerably. Sampling and analytical techniques are being applied as an independent means to determine transport rates by providing an understanding of the geochemical processes that control solute movement along the flow path. As part of these geochemical investigations, this report summarizes the analysis of fracture coating mineral phases from drill core samples from the Pahute mesa area of the Nevada Test Site (NTS). Archived samples were collected based on the presence of natural fractures and on the types and abundance of secondary mineral phases present on those fracture surfaces. Mineral phases present along fracture surfaces are significant because, through the process of water-rock interaction, they can either contribute (as a result of dissolution) or remove (as a result of precipitation or adsorption) constituents from solution. Particular attention was paid to secondary calcite occurrences because they represent a potential source of exchangeable carbon and can interact with groundwater resulting in a modified isotopic signature and apparent water age

  17. Environmental Footprint Analysis of Steam Enhanced Extraction Remedy: Former Williams Air Force Base, Site ST012 Mesa, AZ

    Science.gov (United States)

    This green remediation (GR) study quantifies environmental footprint for an In-Situ Thermal Treatment (ISTT) remedy using Steam Enhanced Extraction (SEE) for Site ST012 located on the Former Williams Air Force Base (AFB) in Mesa, Arizona.

  18. Value of information analysis for Corrective Action Unit Nos. 101 and 102: Central and western Pahute Mesa, Nevada Test Site, Nevada

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1998-09-01

    The purpose of this report is to describe the basis for and present the results of a value of information analysis (VOIA) for the Pahute Mesa underground test area of the Nevada Test Site (NTS), one of several areas of the Nevada Test Site used for underground nuclear testing in the past. The value of information analysis was used to evaluate and compare potential characterization options at the Pahute Mesa underground test area for site remediation purposes. Thirty six characterization options were evaluated, ranging from a single, inexpensive study using existing data and intended to address a single question or uncertainty, to a forty-million-dollar suite of activities designed to collect and analyze new information to address multiple uncertainties. The characterization options were compared and ranked based on how effective the experts though the information collection would be in reducing uncertainties, how this effected the distance to contaminant boundary, and the cost of the option

  19. Value of information analysis for Corrective Action Unit Nos. 101 and 102: Central and western Pahute Mesa, Nevada Test Site, Nevada

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1998-09-01

    The purpose of this report is to describe the basis for and present the results of a value of information analysis (VOIA) for the Pahute Mesa underground test area of the Nevada Test Site (NTS), one of several areas of the Nevada Test Site used for underground nuclear testing in the past. The value of information analysis was used to evaluate and compare potential characterization options at the Pahute Mesa underground test area for site remediation purposes. Thirty six characterization options were evaluated, ranging from a single, inexpensive study using existing data and intended to address a single question or uncertainty, to a forty-million-dollar suite of activities designed to collect and analyze new information to address multiple uncertainties. The characterization options were compared and ranked based on how effective the experts though the information collection would be in reducing uncertainties, how this effected the distance to contaminant boundary, and the cost of the option.

  20. Hydraulic characterization of volcanic rocks in Pahute Mesa using an integrated analysis of 16 multiple-well aquifer tests, Nevada National Security Site, 2009–14

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia, C. Amanda; Jackson, Tracie R.; Halford, Keith J.; Sweetkind, Donald S.; Damar, Nancy A.; Fenelon, Joseph M.; Reiner, Steven R.

    2017-01-20

    An improved understanding of groundwater flow and radionuclide migration downgradient from underground nuclear-testing areas at Pahute Mesa, Nevada National Security Site, requires accurate subsurface hydraulic characterization. To improve conceptual models of flow and transport in the complex hydrogeologic system beneath Pahute Mesa, the U.S. Geological Survey characterized bulk hydraulic properties of volcanic rocks using an integrated analysis of 16 multiple-well aquifer tests. Single-well aquifer-test analyses provided transmissivity estimates at pumped wells. Transmissivity estimates ranged from less than 1 to about 100,000 square feet per day in Pahute Mesa and the vicinity. Drawdown from multiple-well aquifer testing was estimated and distinguished from natural fluctuations in more than 200 pumping and observation wells using analytical water-level models. Drawdown was detected at distances greater than 3 miles from pumping wells and propagated across hydrostratigraphic units and major structures, indicating that neither faults nor structural blocks noticeably impede or divert groundwater flow in the study area.Consistent hydraulic properties were estimated by simultaneously interpreting drawdown from the 16 multiple-well aquifer tests with an integrated groundwater-flow model composed of 11 well-site models—1 for each aquifer test site. Hydraulic properties were distributed across volcanic rocks with the Phase II Pahute Mesa-Oasis Valley Hydrostratigraphic Framework Model. Estimated hydraulic-conductivity distributions spanned more than two orders of magnitude in hydrostratigraphic units. Overlapping hydraulic conductivity ranges among units indicated that most Phase II Hydrostratigraphic Framework Model units were not hydraulically distinct. Simulated total transmissivity ranged from 1,600 to 68,000 square feet per day for all pumping wells analyzed. High-transmissivity zones exceeding 10,000 square feet per day exist near caldera margins and extend

  1. Mesa Verde Archaeoastronomy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Munson, Gregory E.

    Mesa Verde archaeoastronomy has been studied for over 100 years through academic research. Investigators have excavated, stabilized, and documented the major dwellings in Mesa Verde National Park. Evidence for astronomical orientation and alignment was found in Cliff Palace and Sun Temple. The level of documentation increased with each new research project. With good documentation practices, together, the research has shown that the cultures of the Mesa Verde were advanced in their social organization and use of astronomy. Consultation with Native American tribal leaders will add significant background to the depth of knowledge that their ancestors possessed.

  2. Decision analysis using decision trees for a simple clinical decision.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blakley, Brian

    2012-10-01

    To illustrate the use of decision trees with a utility index in clinical decision making. A decision tree was created related to whether or not to perform a tonsillectomy. Data from the literature were applied to a common hypothetical clinical scenario. A decision tree graphically represents the typical decision-making process that many clinicians use. The addition of utility functions permitted consideration of the adverse or beneficial effects of outcomes, altering the treatment decision. Quantitative tools such as decision trees may quantify outcome preferences and aid in clinical decision making, but the proper tool and background data are essential.

  3. Lone ranger decision making versus consensus decision making: Descriptive analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Maite Sara Mashego

    2015-01-01

    Consensus decision making, concerns group members make decisions together with the requirement of reaching a consensus that is all members abiding by the decision outcome. Lone ranging worked for sometime in a autocratic environment. Researchers are now pointing to consensus decision-making in organizations bringing dividend to many organizations. This article used a descriptive analysis to compare the goodness of consensus decision making and making lone ranging decision management. This art...

  4. Multicriteria decision analysis in oncology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adunlin, Georges; Diaby, Vakaramoko; Montero, Alberto J; Xiao, Hong

    2015-12-01

    There has been a growing interest in the development and application of alternative decision-making frameworks within health care, including multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA). Even though the literature includes several reviews on MCDA methods, applications of MCDA in oncology are lacking. The aim of this paper is to discuss a rationale for the use of MCDA in oncology. In this context, the following research question emerged: How can MCDA be used to develop a clinical decision support tool in oncology? In this paper, a brief background on decision making is presented, followed by an overview of MCDA methods and process. The paper discusses some applications of MCDA, proposes research opportunities in the context of oncology and presents an illustrative example of how MCDA can be applied to oncology. Decisions in oncology involve trade-offs between possible benefits and harms. MCDA can help analyse trade-off preferences. A wide range of MCDA methods exist. Each method has its strengths and weaknesses. Choosing the appropriate method varies depending on the source and nature of information used to inform decision making. The literature review identified eight studies. The analytical hierarchy process (AHP) was the most often used method in the identified studies. Overall, MCDA appears to be a promising tool that can be used to assist clinical decision making in oncology. Nonetheless, field testing is desirable before MCDA becomes an established decision-making tool in this field. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  5. Multicriteria decision analysis: Overview and implications for environmental decision making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hermans, Caroline M.; Erickson, Jon D.; Erickson, Jon D.; Messner, Frank; Ring, Irene

    2007-01-01

    Environmental decision making involving multiple stakeholders can benefit from the use of a formal process to structure stakeholder interactions, leading to more successful outcomes than traditional discursive decision processes. There are many tools available to handle complex decision making. Here we illustrate the use of a multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) outranking tool (PROMETHEE) to facilitate decision making at the watershed scale, involving multiple stakeholders, multiple criteria, and multiple objectives. We compare various MCDA methods and their theoretical underpinnings, examining methods that most realistically model complex decision problems in ways that are understandable and transparent to stakeholders.

  6. Lone ranger decision making versus consensus decision making: Descriptive analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maite Sara Mashego

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Consensus decision making, concerns group members make decisions together with the requirement of reaching a consensus that is all members abiding by the decision outcome. Lone ranging worked for sometime in a autocratic environment. Researchers are now pointing to consensus decision-making in organizations bringing dividend to many organizations. This article used a descriptive analysis to compare the goodness of consensus decision making and making lone ranging decision management. This article explored the models, roles, tools and methods of consensus decision making. The results were that consensus decision making brings people together and cements the relationship among employees. The lone ranger’s decision is only consented to by staff but inwardly disagreeable resulting in short term benefits but long term collapse of organizations.

  7. Software Development for Decision Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    1975-03-01

    place vandom variable 1 after decision 3 in the tree. In the nuit phase of our research, we hope to develop general algorithms for translating any...1 5 | > 192 - -■--■ i r«iiii iiml ii MM and tl en defining (GUARANTEE COST)!^ □□BlfSMMiMYTIfS) feöl QF]( GUARANTEE")!^(YES) • The blanching ...Stanford, California, 1974. [4c] Howard, R. A., "Proximal Decision Analysis," Management Science Vol. 17, No. 9, May 1971. a L [5] International

  8. TYBO/BENHAM: Model Analysis of Groundwater Flow and Radionuclide Migration from Underground Nuclear Tests in Southwestern Pahute Mesa, Nevada

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Andrew Wolfsberg; Lee Glascoe; Guoping Lu; Alyssa Olson; Peter Lichtner; Maureen McGraw; Terry Cherry; Guy Roemer

    2002-09-01

    Recent field studies have led to the discovery of trace quantities of plutonium originating from the BENHAM underground nuclear test in two groundwater observation wells on Pahute Mesa at the Nevada Test Site. These observation wells are located 1.3 km from the BENHAM underground nuclear test and approximately 300 m from the TYBO underground nuclear test. In addition to plutonium, several other conservative (e.g. tritium) and reactive (e.g. cesium) radionuclides were found in both observation wells. The highest radionuclide concentrations were found in a well sampling a welded tuff aquifer more than 500m above the BENHAM emplacement depth. These measurements have prompted additional investigations to ascertain the mechanisms, processes, and conditions affecting subsurface radionuclide transport in Pahute Mesa groundwater. This report describes an integrated modeling approach used to simulate groundwater flow, radionuclide source release, and radionuclide transport near the BENHAM and TYBO underground nuclear tests on Pahute Mesa. The components of the model include a flow model at a scale large enough to encompass many wells for calibration, a source-term model capable of predicting radionuclide releases to aquifers following complex processes associated with nonisothermal flow and glass dissolution, and site-scale transport models that consider migration of solutes and colloids in fractured volcanic rock. Although multiple modeling components contribute to the methodology presented in this report, they are coupled and yield results consistent with laboratory and field observations. Additionally, sensitivity analyses are conducted to provide insight into the relative importance of uncertainty ranges in the transport parameters.

  9. Decision strategy research: system analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carle, B.

    2000-01-01

    The objective of SCK-CEN's R and D programme on decision strategies is (1) to develop theories, methods and software tools which help decision makers shape, analyse and understand their decisions; (2) to study group processes in decision making; (3) to apply theories, methods and tools in a context related to nuclear emergency preparedness and more generally to support in a context dealing with ionising radiation; (4) to increase SCK-CEN's knowledge on general emergency preparedness and to introduce SCK-CEN staff to computer supported decision techniques. Ongoing R and D has two components: (1) the study of the use of information and knowledge transfer in group decision processes, and more specific studying important factors when computers are used as information source and communication tool; and (2) the study of preference modelling individually and during group decision processes. Principal achievements in 1999 are described

  10. Decision strategy research: system analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carle, B

    2000-07-01

    The objective of SCK-CEN's R and D programme on decision strategies is (1) to develop theories, methods and software tools which help decision makers shape, analyse and understand their decisions; (2) to study group processes in decision making; (3) to apply theories, methods and tools in a context related to nuclear emergency preparedness and more generally to support in a context dealing with ionising radiation; (4) to increase SCK-CEN's knowledge on general emergency preparedness and to introduce SCK-CEN staff to computer supported decision techniques. Ongoing R and D has two components: (1) the study of the use of information and knowledge transfer in group decision processes, and more specific studying important factors when computers are used as information source and communication tool; and (2) the study of preference modelling individually and during group decision processes. Principal achievements in 1999 are described.

  11. Hydraulic Property and Soil Textural Classification Measurements for Rainier Mesa, Nevada Test Site, Nevada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ebel, Brian A.; Nimmo, John R.

    2010-01-01

    This report presents particle size analysis, field-saturated hydraulic conductivity measurements, and qualitative descriptions of surficial materials at selected locations at Rainier Mesa, Nevada. Measurements and sample collection were conducted in the Rainier Mesa area, including unconsolidated sediments on top of the mesa, an ephemeral wash channel near the mesa edge, and dry U12n tunnel pond sediments below the mesa. Particle size analysis used a combination of sieving and optical diffraction techniques. Field-saturated hydraulic conductivity measurements employed a single-ring infiltrometer with analytical formulas that correct for falling head and spreading outside the ring domain. These measurements may prove useful to current and future efforts at Rainier Mesa aimed at understanding infiltration and its effect on water fluxes and radionuclide transport in the unsaturated zone.

  12. Calidad de las aceitunas de mesa.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Garrido Fernández, Antonio

    1999-06-01

    Full Text Available The paper comments the different regulations related to table olives at national or international scales. The Unified Qualitative standard Applying to Table Olives in International Trade and COI/Codex (International Olive Oil Council, IOC, and IOC/Codex Alimentarius, «Reglamentación Técnico Sanitaria para la elaboración, circulación y venta de aceitunas de mesa» (Spanish, «Normas de calidad para la exportación de aceitunas de mesa» (Spanish, and the United States Standards for Grades of Green and Canned Ripe Olives (USA are especially considered. The effects of the new regulations on Nutritional Labelling (mainly in USA, applications of the Analysis and Control of Critical Points (ACCP, and the problems derived from the application of the ISO 9000, or EN 29000, to this Sector are also discussed.

    El trabajo comenta las diferentes normas, tanto nacionales como internacionales, que regulan los aspectos de la calidad de las aceitunas de mesa. Se comentan especialmente la Norma Cualitativa Unificada Aplicable a Aceitunas de Mesa en el Comercio Internacional y las correspondientes COI/CODEX (Consejo Oleícola Internacional, COI, y COI/Codex Alimentarius, respectivamente, la Reglamentación Técnico Sanitaria para la elaboración, circulación, y venta de aceitunas de mesa (española, las Normas de calidad para la exportación de Aceitunas de Mesa (española, y las «United States Standards for Grades of Green and Canned Ripe Olives» (USA. Asimismo se analizan las implicaciones de las nuevas reglamentaciones sobre etiquetado nutricional (principalmente en el comercio con USA, la aplicación del Análisis de Riesgos y Control de Puntos Críticos (ARCPC, y la necesidad de adaptar el Sector al cumplimiento de las diversas normas de la serie ISO 9000 o su equivalente EN 29000.

  13. Is the Mesa Central of Mexico a biogeographical province? Descriptive analysis based on freshwater biotic components ¿La mesa central de México es una provincia biogeográfica? Análisis descriptivo basado en componentes bióticos dulceacuícolas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Omar Domínguez-Domínguez

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available This essay presents an analysis of the concept of Mesa Central of México as a potential biogeographical province. This region of México has been used as a reference for describing species richness and distribution patterns of the freshwater fish fauna. However, it has not been recognized as a biogeographical province in the available schemes which are mostly based on the composition of terrestrial biota. Here, we provide a historical sketch of the way the concept of Mesa Central arose in the literature as a physiographic province, and we provide a comparison with respect to the regionalization schemes of the Mexican territory, which are based on attributes such physiography, elevation, hydrology, geology and biogeography. We conclude that the Mesa Central, even though it represents a practical concept for establishing the distribution pattern of the fish fauna, in the way it was described originally cannot be circumscribed to any of the regions or provinces in which Mexico has been divided. We also argue that this geographical region cannot be considered as a synonym of the Transmexican Volcanic Axis biogeographical province, and also that it is possible that the fact that this area is not circumscribed to any regionalization scheme is due to the fact that freshwater elements have not been considered in the establishment of such biogeographical regions. We end by pointing out the need for a biogeographical analysis that integrates most of the freshwater elements in order to determine whether both the aquatic and terrestrial flora and fauna are driven by the same geobiotic processes.En este ensayo se presenta un análisis del concepto de Mesa Central de México como una posible provincia biogeográfica. Esta región del país ha sido utilizada como referencia para describir la riqueza y distribución de una parte importante de la fauna ictiológica dulceacuícola, sin embargo, no es reconocida como provincia biogeográfica en ninguno de los

  14. Metabolic Syndrome Derived from Principal Component Analysis and Incident Cardiovascular Events: The Multi Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA and Health, Aging, and Body Composition (Health ABC

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Subhashish Agarwal

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. The NCEP metabolic syndrome (MetS is a combination of dichotomized interrelated risk factors from predominantly Caucasian populations. We propose a continuous MetS score based on principal component analysis (PCA of the same risk factors in a multiethnic cohort and compare prediction of incident CVD events with NCEP MetS definition. Additionally, we replicated these analyses in the Health, Aging, and Body composition (Health ABC study cohort. Methods and Results. We performed PCA of the MetS elements (waist circumference, HDL, TG, fasting blood glucose, SBP, and DBP in 2610 Caucasian Americans, 801 Chinese Americans, 1875 African Americans, and 1494 Hispanic Americans in the multiethnic study of atherosclerosis (MESA cohort. We selected the first principal component as a continuous MetS score (MetS-PC. Cox proportional hazards models were used to examine the association between MetS-PC and 5.5 years of CVD events (n=377 adjusting for age, gender, race, smoking and LDL-C, overall and by ethnicity. To facilitate comparison of MetS-PC with the binary NCEP definition, a MetS-PC cut point was chosen to yield the same 37% prevalence of MetS as the NCEP definition (37% in the MESA cohort. Hazard ratio (HR for CVD events were estimated using the NCEP and Mets-PC-derived binary definitions. In Cox proportional models, the HR (95% CI for CVD events for 1-SD (standard deviation of MetS-PC was 1.71 (1.54–1.90 (P<0.0001 overall after adjusting for potential confounders, and for each ethnicity, HRs were: Caucasian, 1.64 (1.39–1.94, Chinese, 1.39 (1.06–1.83, African, 1.67 (1.37–2.02, and Hispanic, 2.10 (1.66-2.65. Finally, when binary definitions were compared, HR for CVD events was 2.34 (1.91–2.87 for MetS-PC versus 1.79 (1.46–2.20 for NCEP MetS. In the Health ABC cohort, in a fully adjusted model, MetS-PC per 1-SD (Health ABC remained associated with CVD events (HR=1.21, 95%CI 1.12–1.32 overall, and for each ethnicity, Caucasian (HR

  15. Metabolic Syndrome Derived from Principal Component Analysis and Incident Cardiovascular Events: The Multi Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) and Health, Aging, and Body Composition (Health ABC).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agarwal, Subhashish; Jacobs, David R; Vaidya, Dhananjay; Sibley, Christopher T; Jorgensen, Neal W; Rotter, Jerome I; Chen, Yii-Der Ida; Liu, Yongmei; Andrews, Jeanette S; Kritchevsky, Stephen; Goodpaster, Bret; Kanaya, Alka; Newman, Anne B; Simonsick, Eleanor M; Herrington, David M

    2012-01-01

    Background. The NCEP metabolic syndrome (MetS) is a combination of dichotomized interrelated risk factors from predominantly Caucasian populations. We propose a continuous MetS score based on principal component analysis (PCA) of the same risk factors in a multiethnic cohort and compare prediction of incident CVD events with NCEP MetS definition. Additionally, we replicated these analyses in the Health, Aging, and Body composition (Health ABC) study cohort. Methods and Results. We performed PCA of the MetS elements (waist circumference, HDL, TG, fasting blood glucose, SBP, and DBP) in 2610 Caucasian Americans, 801 Chinese Americans, 1875 African Americans, and 1494 Hispanic Americans in the multiethnic study of atherosclerosis (MESA) cohort. We selected the first principal component as a continuous MetS score (MetS-PC). Cox proportional hazards models were used to examine the association between MetS-PC and 5.5 years of CVD events (n = 377) adjusting for age, gender, race, smoking and LDL-C, overall and by ethnicity. To facilitate comparison of MetS-PC with the binary NCEP definition, a MetS-PC cut point was chosen to yield the same 37% prevalence of MetS as the NCEP definition (37%) in the MESA cohort. Hazard ratio (HR) for CVD events were estimated using the NCEP and Mets-PC-derived binary definitions. In Cox proportional models, the HR (95% CI) for CVD events for 1-SD (standard deviation) of MetS-PC was 1.71 (1.54-1.90) (P definitions were compared, HR for CVD events was 2.34 (1.91-2.87) for MetS-PC versus 1.79 (1.46-2.20) for NCEP MetS. In the Health ABC cohort, in a fully adjusted model, MetS-PC per 1-SD (Health ABC) remained associated with CVD events (HR = 1.21, 95%CI 1.12-1.32) overall, and for each ethnicity, Caucasian (HR = 1.24, 95%CI 1.12-1.39) and African Americans (HR = 1.16, 95%CI 1.01-1.32). Finally, when using a binary definition of MetS-PC (cut point 0.505) designed to match the NCEP definition in terms of prevalence in the Health ABC cohort (35

  16. Advancing Alternative Analysis: Integration of Decision Science.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malloy, Timothy F; Zaunbrecher, Virginia M; Batteate, Christina M; Blake, Ann; Carroll, William F; Corbett, Charles J; Hansen, Steffen Foss; Lempert, Robert J; Linkov, Igor; McFadden, Roger; Moran, Kelly D; Olivetti, Elsa; Ostrom, Nancy K; Romero, Michelle; Schoenung, Julie M; Seager, Thomas P; Sinsheimer, Peter; Thayer, Kristina A

    2017-06-13

    Decision analysis-a systematic approach to solving complex problems-offers tools and frameworks to support decision making that are increasingly being applied to environmental challenges. Alternatives analysis is a method used in regulation and product design to identify, compare, and evaluate the safety and viability of potential substitutes for hazardous chemicals. We assessed whether decision science may assist the alternatives analysis decision maker in comparing alternatives across a range of metrics. A workshop was convened that included representatives from government, academia, business, and civil society and included experts in toxicology, decision science, alternatives assessment, engineering, and law and policy. Participants were divided into two groups and were prompted with targeted questions. Throughout the workshop, the groups periodically came together in plenary sessions to reflect on other groups' findings. We concluded that the further incorporation of decision science into alternatives analysis would advance the ability of companies and regulators to select alternatives to harmful ingredients and would also advance the science of decision analysis. We advance four recommendations: a ) engaging the systematic development and evaluation of decision approaches and tools; b ) using case studies to advance the integration of decision analysis into alternatives analysis; c ) supporting transdisciplinary research; and d ) supporting education and outreach efforts. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP483.

  17. Application of multicriteria decision analysis in environmental decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kiker, Gregory A; Bridges, Todd S; Varghese, Arun; Seager, P Thomas P; Linkov, Igor

    2005-04-01

    Decision making in environmental projects can be complex and seemingly intractable, principally because of the inherent trade-offs between sociopolitical, environmental, ecological, and economic factors. The selection of appropriate remedial and abatement strategies for contaminated sites, land use planning, and regulatory processes often involves multiple additional criteria such as the distribution of costs and benefits, environmental impacts for different populations, safety, ecological risk, or human values. Some of these criteria cannot be easily condensed into a monetary value, partly because environmental concerns often involve ethical and moral principles that may not be related to any economic use or value. Furthermore, even if it were possible to aggregate multiple criteria rankings into a common unit, this approach would not always be desirable because the ability to track conflicting stakeholder preferences may be lost in the process. Consequently, selecting from among many different alternatives often involves making trade-offs that fail to satisfy 1 or more stakeholder groups. Nevertheless, considerable research in the area of multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) has made available practical methods for applying scientific decision theoretical approaches to complex multicriteria problems. This paper presents a review of the available literature and provides recommendations for applying MCDA techniques in environmental projects. A generalized framework for decision analysis is proposed to highlight the fundamental ingredients for more structured and tractable environmental decision making.

  18. Probabilistic Analysis in Management Decision Making

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Delmar, M. V.; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    1992-01-01

    The target group in this paper is people concerned with mathematical economic decision theory. It is shown how the numerically effective First Order Reliability Methods (FORM) can be used in rational management decision making, where some parameters in the applied decision basis are uncertainty...... quantities. The uncertainties are taken into account consistently and the decision analysis is based on the general decision theory in combination with reliability and optimization theory. Examples are shown where the described technique is used and some general conclusion are stated....

  19. Advancing Alternative Analysis: Integration of Decision Science

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Malloy, Timothy F; Zaunbrecher, Virginia M; Batteate, Christina

    2016-01-01

    Decision analysis-a systematic approach to solving complex problems-offers tools and frameworks to support decision making that are increasingly being applied to environmental challenges. Alternatives analysis is a method used in regulation and product design to identify, compare, and evaluate th...

  20. Understanding The Decision Context: DPSIR, Decision Landscape, And Social Network Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Establishing the decision context for a management problem is the critical first step for effective decision analysis. Understanding the decision context allow stakeholders and decision-makers to integrate the societal, environmental, and economic considerations that must be con...

  1. Progressive methods in multiple criteria decision analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Meyer, Patrick

    2007-01-01

    Our work mainly focusses on the study and the development of progressive methods in the field of Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis, i.e., iterative procedures presenting partial conclusions to the Decision Maker that can be refined at further steps of the analysis. The thesis is divided into three parts. The first one is intended to be a general analysis of the concept of progressiveness. The last two parts develop progressive methods related first to Multiattribute Value Theory and sec...

  2. Dark Mesas of Aram Chaos

    Science.gov (United States)

    2004-01-01

    6 July 2004 This Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) Mars Orbiter Camera (MOC) image shows several dark-toned mesas surrounded by light-toned sedimentary rock outcrops in Aram Chaos, a large impact basin -- over 200 km (more than 125 mi) across. These mesas are remnants of a once more extensive rock unit. The image is located near 2.0oN, 20.2oW, and covers an area about 3 km (1.9 mi) wide. Sunlight illuminates the scene from the left.

  3. Decision analysis for deteriorating structures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Val, Dimitri V.; Stewart, Mark G.

    2005-01-01

    Measures that improve durability of a structure usually increase its initial cost. Thus, in order to make a decision about a cost-effective solution the life-cycle cost of a structure including cost of structural failure needs to be considered. Due to uncertainties associated with structural properties, loads and environmental conditions the cost of structural failure is a random variable. The paper derives probability distributions of the cost of failure of a single structure and a group of identical structures when single or multiple failures are possible during the service life of a structure. The probability distributions are based on cumulative probabilities of failure of a single structure over its service life. It is assumed that failures occur at discrete points in time, the cost of failure set at the time of decision making remains constant for a particular design solution and the discount rate is a deterministic parameter not changing with time. The probability distributions can be employed to evaluate the expected life-cycle cost or the expected utility, which is then used in decision making. An example, which considers the selection of durability specifications for a reinforced concrete structure built on the coast, illustrates the use of the derived probability distributions

  4. Sensitivity Analysis in Sequential Decision Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Qiushi; Ayer, Turgay; Chhatwal, Jagpreet

    2017-02-01

    Sequential decision problems are frequently encountered in medical decision making, which are commonly solved using Markov decision processes (MDPs). Modeling guidelines recommend conducting sensitivity analyses in decision-analytic models to assess the robustness of the model results against the uncertainty in model parameters. However, standard methods of conducting sensitivity analyses cannot be directly applied to sequential decision problems because this would require evaluating all possible decision sequences, typically in the order of trillions, which is not practically feasible. As a result, most MDP-based modeling studies do not examine confidence in their recommended policies. In this study, we provide an approach to estimate uncertainty and confidence in the results of sequential decision models. First, we provide a probabilistic univariate method to identify the most sensitive parameters in MDPs. Second, we present a probabilistic multivariate approach to estimate the overall confidence in the recommended optimal policy considering joint uncertainty in the model parameters. We provide a graphical representation, which we call a policy acceptability curve, to summarize the confidence in the optimal policy by incorporating stakeholders' willingness to accept the base case policy. For a cost-effectiveness analysis, we provide an approach to construct a cost-effectiveness acceptability frontier, which shows the most cost-effective policy as well as the confidence in that for a given willingness to pay threshold. We demonstrate our approach using a simple MDP case study. We developed a method to conduct sensitivity analysis in sequential decision models, which could increase the credibility of these models among stakeholders.

  5. How decision analysis can further nanoinformatics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bates, Matthew E; Larkin, Sabrina; Keisler, Jeffrey M; Linkov, Igor

    2015-01-01

    The increase in nanomaterial research has resulted in increased nanomaterial data. The next challenge is to meaningfully integrate and interpret these data for better and more efficient decisions. Due to the complex nature of nanomaterials, rapid changes in technology, and disunified testing and data publishing strategies, information regarding material properties is often illusive, uncertain, and/or of varying quality, which limits the ability of researchers and regulatory agencies to process and use the data. The vision of nanoinformatics is to address this problem by identifying the information necessary to support specific decisions (a top-down approach) and collecting and visualizing these relevant data (a bottom-up approach). Current nanoinformatics efforts, however, have yet to efficiently focus data acquisition efforts on the research most relevant for bridging specific nanomaterial data gaps. Collecting unnecessary data and visualizing irrelevant information are expensive activities that overwhelm decision makers. We propose that the decision analytic techniques of multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA), value of information (VOI), weight of evidence (WOE), and portfolio decision analysis (PDA) can bridge the gap from current data collection and visualization efforts to present information relevant to specific decision needs. Decision analytic and Bayesian models could be a natural extension of mechanistic and statistical models for nanoinformatics practitioners to master in solving complex nanotechnology challenges.

  6. Decision analysis applications and the CERCLA process

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Purucker, S.T.; Lyon, B.F. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States). Risk Analysis Section]|[Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States)

    1994-06-01

    Quantitative decision methods can be developed during environmental restoration projects that incorporate stakeholder input and can complement current efforts that are undertaken for data collection and alternatives evaluation during the CERCLA process. These decision-making tools can supplement current EPA guidance as well as focus on problems that arise as attempts are made to make informed decisions regarding remedial alternative selection. In examining the use of such applications, the authors discuss the use of decision analysis tools and their impact on collecting data and making environmental decisions from a risk-based perspective. They will look at the construction of objective functions for quantifying different risk-based perspective. They will look at the construction of objective functions for quantifying different risk-based decision rules that incorporate stakeholder concerns. This represents a quantitative method for implementing the Data Quality Objective (DQO) process. These objective functions can be expressed using a variety of indices to analyze problems that currently arise in the environmental field. Examples include cost, magnitude of risk, efficiency, and probability of success or failure. Based on such defined objective functions, a project can evaluate the impact of different risk and decision selection strategies on data worth and alternative selection.

  7. Financial Analysis, Budgeting, Decision and Control

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mariana Rodica TIRLEA

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The economic processes taking place in the economic environment are stochastic processes that involve and imply risks, arising from product diversification, competition, financial derivatives transactions: swaps, futures, options and from the large number of actors involved in the stock market with a higher or a smaller uncertainty degree. Competition and competitiveness, led to major and rapid change in the business environment, they determined actors participating in the economy to find solutions and methods of collecting and processing data, in such a way that, after being transformed into information they quickly help based on their analysis in decision making, planning and financial forecasting, having an effect on increasing their economic efficiency. In these circumstances the financial analysis, decision, forecasting and control, should be based on quality information that should be a value creation source. The active nature of the financial function implies the existence of a substantially large share of financial analysis, financial decision, forecasting and control.

  8. The Analysis of Sulfur-35 as a Young Groundwater Tracer at E-Tunnel, Rainier Mesa, Nevada National Security Site

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Deinhart, A. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Bibby, R. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Roberts, S. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Tompson, A. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Esser, B. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

    2017-08-09

    Analysis of the relatively short-lived radionuclide sulfur-35 (t1/2 = 87 days) provides useful insight into groundwater discharge from E-Tunnel at the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS). Discharge rates at E-Tunnel vary with precipitation, potentially as the result of short or fast flowpaths between recharge and discharge. The presence of sulfur-35 in groundwater would indicate a significant component of young (< 2-year-old) groundwater. We collected two large volume (20 L) samples of discharge water in November 2016. The samples were sent to Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), where they were processed and analyzed by Liquid Scintillation Counting (LSC). Sulfur-35 was not detected in either the sample or field duplicate, a finding consistent with E-Tunnel discharge containing no significant component of groundwater with age less than six months.

  9. 76 FR 51462 - Notice of Release of an Easement Restriction at Phoenix-Mesa Gateway Airport, Mesa, AZ

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-08-18

    ... Restriction at Phoenix-Mesa Gateway Airport, Mesa, AZ AGENCY: Federal Aviation Administration, DOT. ACTION... restriction covering 52.6 acres of property abutting Phoenix-Mesa Gateway, Mesa, Arizona, from all conditions... to Mr. Walter Fix, Phoenix-Gateway Airport Authority, 5835 S. Sossaman Road, Mesa, Arizona 85212...

  10. Strategic decision analysis applied to borehole seismology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Menke, M.M.; Paulsson, B.N.P.

    1994-01-01

    Strategic Decision Analysis (SDA) is the evolving body of knowledge on how to achieve high quality in the decision that shapes an organization's future. SDA comprises philosophy, process concepts, methodology, and tools for making good decisions. It specifically incorporates many concepts and tools from economic evaluation and risk analysis. Chevron Petroleum Technology Company (CPTC) has applied SDA to evaluate and prioritize a number of its most important and most uncertain R and D projects, including borehole seismology. Before SDA, there were significant issues and concerns about the value to CPTC of continuing to work on borehole seismology. The SDA process created a cross-functional team of experts to structure and evaluate this project. A credible economic model was developed, discrete risks and continuous uncertainties were assessed, and an extensive sensitivity analysis was performed. The results, even applied to a very restricted drilling program for a few years, were good enough to demonstrate the value of continuing the project. This paper explains the SDA philosophy concepts, and process and demonstrates the methodology and tools using the borehole seismology project example. SDA is useful in the upstream industry not just in the R and D/technology decisions, but also in major exploration and production decisions. Since a major challenge for upstream companies today is to create and realize value, the SDA approach should have a very broad applicability

  11. Medical decision making tools: Bayesian analysis and ROC analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Byung Do

    2006-01-01

    During the diagnostic process of the various oral and maxillofacial lesions, we should consider the following: 'When should we order diagnostic tests? What tests should be ordered? How should we interpret the results clinically? And how should we use this frequently imperfect information to make optimal medical decision?' For the clinicians to make proper judgement, several decision making tools are suggested. This article discusses the concept of the diagnostic accuracy (sensitivity and specificity values) with several decision making tools such as decision matrix, ROC analysis and Bayesian analysis. The article also explain the introductory concept of ORAD program

  12. Decision-theoretic refinement planning: a new method for clinical decision analysis.

    OpenAIRE

    Doan, A.; Haddawy, P.; Kahn, C. E.

    1995-01-01

    Clinical decision analysis seeks to identify the optimal management strategy by modelling the uncertainty and risks entailed in the diagnosis, natural history, and treatment of a particular problem or disorder. Decision trees are the most frequently used model in clinical decision analysis, but can be tedious to construct, cumbersome to use, and computationally prohibitive, especially with large, complex decision problems. We present a new method for clinical decision analysis that combines t...

  13. A Galerkin, finite-element analysis of steady-state flow and heat transport in the shallow hydrothermal system in the East Mesa area, Imperial Valley, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, R.E.

    1977-01-01

    A steady-state simulation model was applied to the shallow hydrothermal system in the East Mesa area of Imperial Valley, Calif. The steady-state equations of flow and heat transport were solved by use of a Galerkin, finite-element method. A solution was obtained by iterating between the temperature and pressure equations, using updated densities and viscosities. Temperature and pressure were obtained for each node, and corresponding head values were calculated. The simulated temperature and pressure patterns correlated well with the observed patterns. Additional data, mainly from test drilling, would be required for construction of a similar model of the deep hydrothermal system.

  14. Defense against nuclear weapons: a decision analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Orient, J.M.

    1985-01-01

    Response to the public health threat posed by nuclear weapons is a medical imperative. The United States, in contrast to other nations, has chosen a course that assures maximal casualties in the event of a nuclear attack, on the theory that prevention of the attack is incompatible with preventive measures against its consequences, such as blast injuries and radiation sickness. A decision analysis approach clarifies the risks and benefits of a change to a strategy of preparedness

  15. Cancer incidence study in Mesa County, Colorado

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ouimette, D.R.; Ferguson, S.W.; Zoglo, D.; Murphy, S.; Alley, S.; Bahler, S.

    1983-01-01

    In November of 1982 the Colorado Department of Health completed an epidemiologic investigation of leukemia, multiple myeloma, and cancers of the lung, stomach, pancreas and colon in Mesa County, Colorado for the years 1970 to 1979. This investigation was performed in response to a concern that the presence of uranium mill tailings in some Mesa County homes presents a potential cancer hazard. The results of the investigation show that the incidence of multiple myeloma, colon, stomach and pancreatic cancer are not above expected rates. The incidence of leukemia is not above expected rates for the entire study period, 1970 to 1979. The incidence of lung cancer appears elevated when compared to the The Third National Cancer Survey data for Colorado but lower than expected when compared to Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results data. To further examine the leukemia and lung cancer incidence findings, a case/control study was conducted. The controls consisted of colon, stomach and pancreatic cancer cases. The results of the leukemia case/control analysis show no association with the radiation exposure variables: occupational radiation exposure; uranium mining exposure; having ever lived in a type A home (uranium tailings home); and radiation therapy. The lung cancer case/control analysis shows a significant association with only the radiation exposure variable, uranium mining history, indicating cases were more likely to have been uranium miners than were controls. As with leukemia, the study found no association between lung cancer and living in a uranium mill tailings home. The relatively low radiation exposures typical of type A homes and the small number of persons exposed make it very difficult to establish, by epidemiologic methods, that a risk exists

  16. Decision Analysis Tools for Volcano Observatories

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hincks, T. H.; Aspinall, W.; Woo, G.

    2005-12-01

    Staff at volcano observatories are predominantly engaged in scientific activities related to volcano monitoring and instrumentation, data acquisition and analysis. Accordingly, the academic education and professional training of observatory staff tend to focus on these scientific functions. From time to time, however, staff may be called upon to provide decision support to government officials responsible for civil protection. Recognizing that Earth scientists may have limited technical familiarity with formal decision analysis methods, specialist software tools that assist decision support in a crisis should be welcome. A review is given of two software tools that have been under development recently. The first is for probabilistic risk assessment of human and economic loss from volcanic eruptions, and is of practical use in short and medium-term risk-informed planning of exclusion zones, post-disaster response, etc. A multiple branch event-tree architecture for the software, together with a formalism for ascribing probabilities to branches, have been developed within the context of the European Community EXPLORIS project. The second software tool utilizes the principles of the Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) for evidence-based assessment of volcanic state and probabilistic threat evaluation. This is of practical application in short-term volcano hazard forecasting and real-time crisis management, including the difficult challenge of deciding when an eruption is over. An open-source BBN library is the software foundation for this tool, which is capable of combining synoptically different strands of observational data from diverse monitoring sources. A conceptual vision is presented of the practical deployment of these decision analysis tools in a future volcano observatory environment. Summary retrospective analyses are given of previous volcanic crises to illustrate the hazard and risk insights gained from use of these tools.

  17. Decision analysis for INEL hazardous waste storage

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Page, L.A.; Roach, J.A.

    1994-01-01

    In mid-November 1993, the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL) Waste Reduction Operations Complex (WROC) Manager requested that the INEL Hazardous Waste Type Manager perform a decision analysis to determine whether or not a new Hazardous Waste Storage Facility (HWSF) was needed to store INEL hazardous waste (HW). In response to this request, a team was formed to perform a decision analysis for recommending the best configuration for storage of INEL HW. Personnel who participated in the decision analysis are listed in Appendix B. The results of the analysis indicate that the existing HWSF is not the best configuration for storage of INEL HW. The analysis detailed in Appendix C concludes that the best HW storage configuration would be to modify and use a portion of the Waste Experimental Reduction Facility (WERF) Waste Storage Building (WWSB), PBF-623 (Alternative 3). This facility was constructed in 1991 to serve as a waste staging facility for WERF incineration. The modifications include an extension of the current Room 105 across the south end of the WWSB and installing heating, ventilation, and bay curbing, which would provide approximately 1,600 ft 2 of isolated HW storage area. Negotiations with the State to discuss aisle space requirements along with modifications to WWSB operating procedures are also necessary. The process to begin utilizing the WWSB for HW storage includes planned closure of the HWSF, modification to the WWSB, and relocation of the HW inventory. The cost to modify the WWSB can be funded by a reallocation of funding currently identified to correct HWSF deficiencies

  18. Decision analysis for INEL hazardous waste storage

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Page, L.A.; Roach, J.A.

    1994-01-01

    In mid-November 1993, the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL) Waste Reduction Operations Complex (WROC) Manager requested that the INEL Hazardous Waste Type Manager perform a decision analysis to determine whether or not a new Hazardous Waste Storage Facility (HWSF) was needed to store INEL hazardous waste (HW). In response to this request, a team was formed to perform a decision analysis for recommending the best configuration for storage of INEL HW. Personnel who participated in the decision analysis are listed in Appendix B. The results of the analysis indicate that the existing HWSF is not the best configuration for storage of INEL HW. The analysis detailed in Appendix C concludes that the best HW storage configuration would be to modify and use a portion of the Waste Experimental Reduction Facility (WERF) Waste Storage Building (WWSB), PBF-623 (Alternative 3). This facility was constructed in 1991 to serve as a waste staging facility for WERF incineration. The modifications include an extension of the current Room 105 across the south end of the WWSB and installing heating, ventilation, and bay curbing, which would provide approximately 1,600 ft{sup 2} of isolated HW storage area. Negotiations with the State to discuss aisle space requirements along with modifications to WWSB operating procedures are also necessary. The process to begin utilizing the WWSB for HW storage includes planned closure of the HWSF, modification to the WWSB, and relocation of the HW inventory. The cost to modify the WWSB can be funded by a reallocation of funding currently identified to correct HWSF deficiencies.

  19. [HEALTH ECONOMIC ANALYSIS AND FAIR DECISION MAKING].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeantet, Marine; Lopez, Alain

    2015-09-01

    Health technology assessment consists in evaluating the incremental cost-benefit ratio of a medicine, a medical device, a vaccine, a health strategy, in comparison to alternative health technologies. This form of socio-eoonomic evaluation aims at optimizing resource allocation within the health system. By setting the terms of valid alternatives, it is useful to highlight public choices, but it cannot in itself make the decision as regards the public funding of patient's access to the considered technology. The decision to include such technology in the basket of health goods and sercices covered, the levels and conditions of the coverage, also result from budget constraints, from economic situation and from a political vision about health policy, social protection and public expenditure. Accordingly, health economic analysis must be implemented on specific and targeted topics. The decision making process, with its health, economic and ethical stakes, calls for a public procedure and debate, based on shared information and argument. Otherwise, health system regulation, confronted with radical and costly innovations in the coming years, will become harder to handle. This requires the development of health economic research teams able to contribute to this assessment exercise.

  20. Landscape Evolution Comparison between Sacra Mensa, Mars and the Grand Mesa, Colorado, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chesnutt, J. M.; Wegmann, K. W.; Cole, R. D.; Byrne, P. K.

    2017-12-01

    Grand Mesa conducted in 2017 combined with a thorough GIS analysis of Sacra Mensa, will help characterize the key phenomena that sculpted these impressive landforms. We also explore the prospect for lateral variability in incompetent units within Sacra Mensa from which landslides and slumping may have initiated, as may be the case for the units within Grand Mesa.

  1. True pancreaticoduodenal artery aneurysms: A decision analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Takao, Hidemasa; Nojo, Takeshi; Ohtomo, Kuni

    2010-01-01

    Purpose: True pancreaticoduodenal artery aneurysms are rare. No definitive study evaluating the natural history of these lesions or their preferred method of treatment has been published. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the outcome of preventive treatment of unruptured pancreaticoduodenal artery aneurysms using a Markov model. Materials and methods: With the use of a Markov model, we performed a decision analysis to evaluate the outcome of preventive treatment of unruptured pancreaticoduodenal artery aneurysms. The risk of rupture and the mortality of preventive treatment are unknown. Therefore, we performed sensitivity analysis using these parameters. Effectiveness was measured in life expectancy. Results: For 80-year-old patients, preventive treatment was dominated by no treatment if mortality rates of preventive treatment were greater than 1.4%, greater than 2.6%, greater than 3.8%, and greater than 4.8% at annual rupture rates of 1%, 2%, 3%, and 4%, respectively. For 50-year-old patients, preventive treatment was dominated by no treatment if mortality rates of preventive treatment were greater than 3.3%, greater than 5.9%, greater than 8.0%, and greater than 9.7% at annual rupture rates of 1%, 2%, 3%, and 4%, respectively. Conclusion: The effectiveness of preventive treatment of unruptured pancreaticoduodenal artery aneurysms depends on the aneurysm rupture rate, mortality rate of preventive treatment, and patient age. Taking into account the effects of these parameters is important in making treatment decisions.

  2. Risk analysis as a decision tool

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yadigaroglu, G.; Chakraborty, S.

    1985-01-01

    From 1983 - 1985 a lecture series entitled ''Risk-benefit analysis'' was held at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (ETH), Zurich, in cooperation with the Central Department for the Safety of Nuclear Installations of the Swiss Federal Agency of Energy Economy. In that setting the value of risk-oriented evaluation models as a decision tool in safety questions was discussed on a broad basis. Experts of international reputation from the Federal Republic of Germany, France, Canada, the United States and Switzerland have contributed to report in this joint volume on the uses of such models. Following an introductory synopsis on risk analysis and risk assessment the book deals with practical examples in the fields of medicine, nuclear power, chemistry, transport and civil engineering. Particular attention is paid to the dialogue between analysts and decision makers taking into account the economic-technical aspects and social values. The recent chemical disaster in the Indian city of Bhopal again signals the necessity of such analyses. All the lectures were recorded individually. (orig./HP) [de

  3. Using discriminant analysis for credit decision

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gheorghiţa DINCĂ

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper follows to highlight the link between the results obtained applying discriminant analysis and lending decision. For this purpose, we have carried out the research on a sample of 24 Romanian private companies, pertaining to 12 different economic sectors, from I and II categories of Bucharest Stock Exchange, for the period 2010-2012. Our study works with two popular bankruptcy risk’s prediction models, the Altman model and the Anghel model. We have double-checked and confirmed the results of our research by comparing the results from applying the two fore-mentioned models as well as by checking existing debt commitments of each analyzed company to credit institutions during the 2010-2012 period. The aim of this paper was the classification of studied companies into potential bankrupt and non-bankrupt, to assist credit institutions in their decision to grant credit, understanding the approval or rejection algorithm of loan applications and even help potential investors in these ompanies.

  4. Acid rain compliance planning using decision analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Norris, C.; Sweet, T.; Borison, A.

    1991-01-01

    Illinois Power Company (IP) is an investor-owned electric and natural gas utility serving portions of downstate Illinois. In addition to one nuclear unit and several small gas and/or oil-fired units, IP has ten coal-fired units. It is easy to understand the impact the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 (CAAA) could have on IP. Prior to passage of the CAAA, IP formed several teams to evaluate the specific compliance options at each of the high sulfur coal units. Following that effort, numerous economic analyses of compliance strategies were conducted. The CAAA have introduced a new dimension to planning under uncertainty. Not only are many of the familiar variables uncertain, but the specific form of regulation, and indeed, the compliance goal itself is hard to define. For IP, this led them to use techniques not widely used within their corporation. This paper summarizes the analytical methods used in these analyses and the preliminary results as of July, 1991. The analysis used three approaches to examine the acid rain compliance decision. These approaches were: (1) the 'most-likely,' or single-path scenario approach; (2) a multi-path strategy analysis using the strategies defined in the single-scenario analysis; and (3) a less constrained multi-path option analysis which selects the least cost compliance option for each unit

  5. Demographics of reintroduced populations: estimation, modeling, and decision analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Converse, Sarah J.; Moore, Clinton T.; Armstrong, Doug P.

    2013-01-01

    Reintroduction can be necessary for recovering populations of threatened species. However, the success of reintroduction efforts has been poorer than many biologists and managers would hope. To increase the benefits gained from reintroduction, management decision making should be couched within formal decision-analytic frameworks. Decision analysis is a structured process for informing decision making that recognizes that all decisions have a set of components—objectives, alternative management actions, predictive models, and optimization methods—that can be decomposed, analyzed, and recomposed to facilitate optimal, transparent decisions. Because the outcome of interest in reintroduction efforts is typically population viability or related metrics, models used in decision analysis efforts for reintroductions will need to include population models. In this special section of the Journal of Wildlife Management, we highlight examples of the construction and use of models for informing management decisions in reintroduced populations. In this introductory contribution, we review concepts in decision analysis, population modeling for analysis of decisions in reintroduction settings, and future directions. Increased use of formal decision analysis, including adaptive management, has great potential to inform reintroduction efforts. Adopting these practices will require close collaboration among managers, decision analysts, population modelers, and field biologists.

  6. CRITICAL ANALYSIS OF THE RELIABILITY OF INTUITIVE MORAL DECISIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. V. Nadurak

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Purpose of the research is a critical analysis of the reliability of intuitive moral decisions. Methodology. The work is based on the methodological attitude of empirical ethics, involving the use of findings from empirical research in ethical reflection and decision making. Originality. The main kinds of intuitive moral decisions are identified: 1 intuitively emotional decisions (i.e. decisions made under the influence of emotions that accompanies the process of moral decision making; 2 decisions made under the influence of moral risky psychological aptitudes (unconscious human tendencies that makes us think in a certain way and make decisions, unacceptable from the logical and ethical point of view; 3 intuitively normative decisions (decisions made under the influence of socially learned norms, that cause evaluative feeling «good-bad», without conscious reasoning. It was found that all of these kinds of intuitive moral decisions can lead to mistakes in the moral life. Conclusions. Considering the fact that intuition systematically leads to erroneous moral decisions, intuitive reaction cannot be the only source for making such decisions. The conscious rational reasoning can compensate for weaknesses of intuition. In this case, there is a necessity in theoretical model that would structure the knowledge about the interactions between intuitive and rational factors in moral decisions making and became the basis for making suggestions that would help us to make the right moral decision.

  7. Decision Analysis in the U.S. Army’s Capabilties Needs Analysis: Applications of Decision Analysis Methods to Capabilities Resource Allocation and Capabilities Development Decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-10-01

    value functions and their scales; the use of a modified Delphi method to refine the analysis results; and the implementation of an open architecture web...Decision Analysis; value analysis; value model; Multi-attribute Decision Making (MADM); Swing Weighting; Value functions; Delphi method 16. SECURITY...solution approaches. Once analyst made initial assessments a refinement process using a modified Delphi method enabled final recommendations that

  8. Case history report on East Mesa and Cerro Prieto geothermal fields

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Davis, DG.; Sanyal, S.K.

    1979-06-01

    Well log analysis as applied to the geothermal industry is one of the areas of technology in great need of further development. One means of improving log analysis technology is to study case histories of the past uses of log analysis as applied to specific fields. The project described in this report involved case history studies on two well-known geothermal areas in North America: the East Mesa field in California and the Cerro Prieto field in Mexico. Since there was considerably more pertinent material available on East Mesa, a major part of the effort on this project was devoted to studying the East Mesa field. One particular problem that first came to attention when studying the Cerro Prieto data was the difficulty in determining actual formation temperature at the time of logging. Since the temperature can have a significant effect on well log readings, an accurate temperature determination was considered to be important.

  9. Risk-based decision analysis for groundwater operable units

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chiaramonte, G.R.

    1995-01-01

    This document proposes a streamlined approach and methodology for performing risk assessment in support of interim remedial measure (IRM) decisions involving the remediation of contaminated groundwater on the Hanford Site. This methodology, referred to as ''risk-based decision analysis,'' also supports the specification of target cleanup volumes and provides a basis for design and operation of the groundwater remedies. The risk-based decision analysis can be completed within a short time frame and concisely documented. The risk-based decision analysis is more versatile than the qualitative risk assessment (QRA), because it not only supports the need for IRMs, but also provides criteria for defining the success of the IRMs and provides the risk-basis for decisions on final remedies. For these reasons, it is proposed that, for groundwater operable units, the risk-based decision analysis should replace the more elaborate, costly, and time-consuming QRA

  10. Decision forests for computer vision and medical image analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Criminisi, A

    2013-01-01

    This practical and easy-to-follow text explores the theoretical underpinnings of decision forests, organizing the vast existing literature on the field within a new, general-purpose forest model. Topics and features: with a foreword by Prof. Y. Amit and Prof. D. Geman, recounting their participation in the development of decision forests; introduces a flexible decision forest model, capable of addressing a large and diverse set of image and video analysis tasks; investigates both the theoretical foundations and the practical implementation of decision forests; discusses the use of decision for

  11. UTJECAJ STRESA PRIJE KLANJA NA BOJU JUNEĆEGA MESA

    OpenAIRE

    Marenčić, Dejan; Ivanković, Ante

    2015-01-01

    Proizvođači govedskog mesa nerijetko se susreću s problemima pojave nepoželjne boje, prvenstveno pojave tamnog, suhog i tvrdog mesa. Potrošači nerado konzumiraju takvo meso, neopravdano misleći da potječe od starijih ili bolesnih životinja. Radi navedenog, veliki naglasak u proizvodnji govedskog mesa se stavlja na kontrolu i održivost boje mesa. Tamno meso jedan je od vodećih problema u prodaji junećega mesa, jer uzrokuje milijunske gubitke mesnoj industriji, zbog čega je predmet brojnih istr...

  12. A regret theory approach to decision curve analysis: a novel method for eliciting decision makers' preferences and decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsalatsanis, Athanasios; Hozo, Iztok; Vickers, Andrew; Djulbegovic, Benjamin

    2010-09-16

    Decision curve analysis (DCA) has been proposed as an alternative method for evaluation of diagnostic tests, prediction models, and molecular markers. However, DCA is based on expected utility theory, which has been routinely violated by decision makers. Decision-making is governed by intuition (system 1), and analytical, deliberative process (system 2), thus, rational decision-making should reflect both formal principles of rationality and intuition about good decisions. We use the cognitive emotion of regret to serve as a link between systems 1 and 2 and to reformulate DCA. First, we analysed a classic decision tree describing three decision alternatives: treat, do not treat, and treat or no treat based on a predictive model. We then computed the expected regret for each of these alternatives as the difference between the utility of the action taken and the utility of the action that, in retrospect, should have been taken. For any pair of strategies, we measure the difference in net expected regret. Finally, we employ the concept of acceptable regret to identify the circumstances under which a potentially wrong strategy is tolerable to a decision-maker. We developed a novel dual visual analog scale to describe the relationship between regret associated with "omissions" (e.g. failure to treat) vs. "commissions" (e.g. treating unnecessary) and decision maker's preferences as expressed in terms of threshold probability. We then proved that the Net Expected Regret Difference, first presented in this paper, is equivalent to net benefits as described in the original DCA. Based on the concept of acceptable regret we identified the circumstances under which a decision maker tolerates a potentially wrong decision and expressed it in terms of probability of disease. We present a novel method for eliciting decision maker's preferences and an alternative derivation of DCA based on regret theory. Our approach may be intuitively more appealing to a decision-maker, particularly

  13. A regret theory approach to decision curve analysis: A novel method for eliciting decision makers' preferences and decision-making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vickers Andrew

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Decision curve analysis (DCA has been proposed as an alternative method for evaluation of diagnostic tests, prediction models, and molecular markers. However, DCA is based on expected utility theory, which has been routinely violated by decision makers. Decision-making is governed by intuition (system 1, and analytical, deliberative process (system 2, thus, rational decision-making should reflect both formal principles of rationality and intuition about good decisions. We use the cognitive emotion of regret to serve as a link between systems 1 and 2 and to reformulate DCA. Methods First, we analysed a classic decision tree describing three decision alternatives: treat, do not treat, and treat or no treat based on a predictive model. We then computed the expected regret for each of these alternatives as the difference between the utility of the action taken and the utility of the action that, in retrospect, should have been taken. For any pair of strategies, we measure the difference in net expected regret. Finally, we employ the concept of acceptable regret to identify the circumstances under which a potentially wrong strategy is tolerable to a decision-maker. Results We developed a novel dual visual analog scale to describe the relationship between regret associated with "omissions" (e.g. failure to treat vs. "commissions" (e.g. treating unnecessary and decision maker's preferences as expressed in terms of threshold probability. We then proved that the Net Expected Regret Difference, first presented in this paper, is equivalent to net benefits as described in the original DCA. Based on the concept of acceptable regret we identified the circumstances under which a decision maker tolerates a potentially wrong decision and expressed it in terms of probability of disease. Conclusions We present a novel method for eliciting decision maker's preferences and an alternative derivation of DCA based on regret theory. Our approach may

  14. Decision analysis for dynamic accounting of nuclear material

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shipley, J.P.

    1978-01-01

    Effective materials accounting for special nuclear material in modern fuel cycle facilities will depend heavily on sophisticated data analysis techniques. Decision analysis, which combines elements of estimation theory, decision theory, and systems analysis, is a framework well suited to the development and application of these techniques. Augmented by pattern-recognition tools such as the alarm-sequence chart, decision analysis can be used to reduce errors caused by subjective data evaluation and to condense large collections of data to a smaller set of more descriptive statistics. Application to data from a model plutonium nitrate-to-oxide conversion process illustrates the concepts

  15. Multivariate Analysis of Household Decision Making, Contraceptive ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The study examined the effect of household decision making on the use of contraceptives and fertility behaviour of ever-married men in Nigeria. Men's Recode Dataset of 2013 Nigerian Demographic and Health Survey (NDHS) dataset was used. A sample size of 8,981 ever married men aged 15-49 were analyzed using ...

  16. Household consumption, female employment and fertility decisions; A microeconometric analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Kalwij, A.S.

    1999-01-01

    This thesis is mainly concerned with a simultaneous analysis of the economic determinants of female employment and fertility decisions on a household level in the Netherlands. In particular, this thesis is interested in the role of the employment decisions of women in the observed behavior that higher waged women schedule births later in life compared to lower waged women. Furthermore, the effects of a household's financial wealth on the female employment and fertility decisions is investigat...

  17. Decision Analysis of Dynamic Spectrum Access Rules

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Juan D. Deaton; Luiz A. DaSilva; Christian Wernz

    2011-12-01

    A current trend in spectrum regulation is to incorporate spectrum sharing through the design of spectrum access rules that support Dynamic Spectrum Access (DSA). This paper develops a decision-theoretic framework for regulators to assess the impacts of different decision rules on both primary and secondary operators. We analyze access rules based on sensing and exclusion areas, which in practice can be enforced through geolocation databases. Our results show that receiver-only sensing provides insufficient protection for primary and co-existing secondary users and overall low social welfare. On the other hand, using sensing information between the transmitter and receiver of a communication link, provides dramatic increases in system performance. The performance of using these link end points is relatively close to that of using many cooperative sensing nodes associated to the same access point and large link exclusion areas. These results are useful to regulators and network developers in understanding in developing rules for future DSA regulation.

  18. Decision making analysis of walnut seedling production on a small ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The decision has to be made between those three alternatives aiming at achievement of optimal/best economic result for the family farm. Summarizing results obtained from the decision tree, simulation and sensitivity analysis, the optimal solution for the family farm should be to continue production of walnut seedlings with ...

  19. Household consumption, female employment and fertility decisions; A microeconometric analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kalwij, A.S.

    1999-01-01

    This thesis is mainly concerned with a simultaneous analysis of the economic determinants of female employment and fertility decisions on a household level in the Netherlands. In particular, this thesis is interested in the role of the employment decisions of women in the observed behavior that

  20. Corrective Action Investigation Plan for Corrective Action Unit 99: Rainier Mesa/Shoshone Mountain, Nevada Test Site, Nevada

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McCord, John

    2004-01-01

    caldera as well as from more distant sources. This has resulted in a layered volcanic stratigraphy composed of thick deposits of welded and nonwelded ash-flow tuff and lava flows. These deposits are proximal to the source caldera and are interstratified with the more distal facies of fallout tephra and bedded reworked tuff from more distant sources. In each area, a similar volcanic sequence was deposited upon Paleozoic carbonate and siliciclastic rocks that are disrupted by various thrust faults, normal faults, and strike-slip faults. In both Rainier Mesa (km) to the southwest, and Tippipah Spring, 4 km to the north, and the tunnel complex is dry. Particle-tracking simulations performed during the value of information analysis (VOIA) (SNJV, 2004b) indicate that most of the regional groundwater that underlies the test locations at Rainier Mesa and Shoshone Mountain eventually follows similar and parallel paths and ultimately discharges in Death Valley and the Amargosa Desert. Particle-tracking simulations conducted for the regional groundwater flow and risk assessment indicated that contamination from Rainier Mesa and Shoshone Mountain were unlikely to leave the NTS during the 1,000-year period of interest (DOE/NV, 1997a). It is anticipated that CAU-scale modeling will modify these results somewhat, but it is not expected to radically alter the outcome of these previous particle-tracking simulations within the 1,000-year period of interest. The Rainier Mesa/Shoshone Mountain CAIP describes the corrective action investigation (CAI) to be conducted at the Rainier Mesa/Shoshone Mountain CAU to evaluate the extent of contamination in groundwater due to the underground nuclear testing. The CAI will be conducted by the UGTA Project, which is part of the NNSA/NSO Environmental Restoration Project (ERP). The purpose and scope of the CAI are presented in this section, followed by a summary of the entire document

  1. Implementing Second-Order Decision Analysis: Concepts, Algorithms, and Tool

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aron Larsson

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available We present implemented concepts and algorithms for a simulation approach to decision evaluation with second-order belief distributions in a common framework for interval decision analysis. The rationale behind this work is that decision analysis with interval-valued probabilities and utilities may lead to overlapping expected utility intervals yielding difficulties in discriminating between alternatives. By allowing for second-order belief distributions over interval-valued utility and probability statements these difficulties may not only be remedied but will also allow for decision evaluation concepts and techniques providing additional insight into a decision problem. The approach is based upon sets of linear constraints together with generation of random probability distributions and utility values from implicitly stated uniform second-order belief distributions over the polytopes given from the constraints. The result is an interactive method for decision evaluation with second-order belief distributions, complementing earlier methods for decision evaluation with interval-valued probabilities and utilities. The method has been implemented for trial use in a user oriented decision analysis software.

  2. Patient participation in palliative care decisions: An ethnographic discourse analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emmanuelle Bélanger

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available The participation of patients in making decisions about their care is especially important towards the end of life because palliative care decisions involve extensive uncertainty and are heavily influenced by personal values. Yet, there is a scarcity of studies directly observing clinical interactions between palliative patients and their health care providers. In this study, we aimed to understand how patient participation in palliative care decisions is constructed through discourse in a community hospital-based palliative care team. This qualitative study combined ethnographic observations of a palliative care team with discourse analysis. Eighteen palliative care patients with cancer diagnoses, six family physicians, and two nurses were involved in the study. Multiple interactions were observed between each patient and health care providers over the course of 1 year, for a total of 101 consultations, 24 of which were audio-recorded. The analysis consisted in looking for the interpretive repertoires (i.e., familiar lines of argument used to justify actions that were used to justify patient participation in decision-making during clinical interactions, as well as exploring their implications for decision roles and end-of-life care. Patients and their health care providers seldom addressed their decision-making roles explicitly. Rather, they constructed patient participation in palliative care decisions in a covert manner. Four interpretive repertoires were used to justify patient participation: (1 exposing uncertainty, (2 co-constructing patient preferences, (3 affirming patient autonomy, and finally (4 upholding the authority of health care providers. The results demonstrate how patients and health care providers used these arguments to negotiate their respective roles in decision-making. In conclusion, patients and health care providers used a variety of interpretive repertoires to covertly negotiate their roles in decision-making, and to

  3. Mesa Verde: A Study of Man in an Agricultural Setting. Student Manual.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Community Health Service (DHEW/PHS), Bethesda, MD.

    This student manual contains information and guides to assist the secondary student in functioning as an archeologist. Included are fables, pictures for analysis, a time line and description of the pre-history of Mesa Verde, Colorado. The manual concludes with artifact identification word sheets. A related document is ED 001 722. (AWW)

  4. A decision analysis of an exploratory studies facility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Merkhofer, M.W.; Gnirk, P.

    1991-01-01

    An Exploratory Studies Facility (ESF) is planned to support the characterization of a potential site for a high-level nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain, NV. The selection of a design for the ESF is a critical decision, because the ESF design may affect the accuracy of characterization testing and subsequent repository design. The assist the design process, a comparative evaluation was conducted to rank 34 alternative relied on techniques from formal decision analysis, including decision trees and multiattribute utility analysis (MUA). The results helped to identify favorable design features and convinced the Department of Energy to adopt the top-ranked option as the preferred ESF design

  5. Modules for Experiments in Stellar Astrophysics (MESA)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paxton, Bill; Bildsten, Lars; Dotter, Aaron; Herwig, Falk; Lesaffre, Pierre; Timmes, Frank

    2011-01-01

    Stellar physics and evolution calculations enable a broad range of research in astrophysics. Modules for Experiments in Stellar Astrophysics (MESA) is a suite of open source, robust, efficient, thread-safe libraries for a wide range of applications in computational stellar astrophysics. A one-dimensional stellar evolution module, MESAstar, combines many of the numerical and physics modules for simulations of a wide range of stellar evolution scenarios ranging from very low mass to massive stars, including advanced evolutionary phases. MESAstar solves the fully coupled structure and composition equations simultaneously. It uses adaptive mesh refinement and sophisticated timestep controls, and supports shared memory parallelism based on OpenMP. State-of-the-art modules provide equation of state, opacity, nuclear reaction rates, element diffusion data, and atmosphere boundary conditions. Each module is constructed as a separate Fortran 95 library with its own explicitly defined public interface to facilitate independent development. Several detailed examples indicate the extensive verification and testing that is continuously performed and demonstrate the wide range of capabilities that MESA possesses. These examples include evolutionary tracks of very low mass stars, brown dwarfs, and gas giant planets to very old ages; the complete evolutionary track of a 1 M sun star from the pre-main sequence (PMS) to a cooling white dwarf; the solar sound speed profile; the evolution of intermediate-mass stars through the He-core burning phase and thermal pulses on the He-shell burning asymptotic giant branch phase; the interior structure of slowly pulsating B Stars and Beta Cepheids; the complete evolutionary tracks of massive stars from the PMS to the onset of core collapse; mass transfer from stars undergoing Roche lobe overflow; and the evolution of helium accretion onto a neutron star. MESA can be downloaded from the project Web site (http://mesa.sourceforge.net/).

  6. METHODOLOGY FOR ANALYSIS OF DECISION MAKING IN AIR NAVIGATION SYSTEM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Volodymyr Kharchenko

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract. In the research of Air Navigation System as a complex socio-technical system the methodologyof analysis of human-operator's decision-making has been developed. The significance of individualpsychologicalfactors as well as the impact of socio-psychological factors on the professional activities of ahuman-operator during the flight situation development from normal to catastrophic were analyzed. On thebasis of the reflexive theory of bipolar choice the expected risks of decision-making by the Air NavigationSystem's operator influenced by external environment, previous experience and intentions were identified.The methods for analysis of decision-making by the human-operator of Air Navigation System usingstochastic networks have been developed.Keywords: Air Navigation System, bipolar choice, human operator, decision-making, expected risk, individualpsychologicalfactors, methodology of analysis, reflexive model, socio-psychological factors, stochastic network.

  7. Decision Analysis for Metric Selection on a Clinical Quality Scorecard.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guth, Rebecca M; Storey, Patricia E; Vitale, Michael; Markan-Aurora, Sumita; Gordon, Randolph; Prevost, Traci Q; Dunagan, Wm Claiborne; Woeltje, Keith F

    2016-09-01

    Clinical quality scorecards are used by health care institutions to monitor clinical performance and drive quality improvement. Because of the rapid proliferation of quality metrics in health care, BJC HealthCare found it increasingly difficult to select the most impactful scorecard metrics while still monitoring metrics for regulatory purposes. A 7-step measure selection process was implemented incorporating Kepner-Tregoe Decision Analysis, which is a systematic process that considers key criteria that must be satisfied in order to make the best decision. The decision analysis process evaluates what metrics will most appropriately fulfill these criteria, as well as identifies potential risks associated with a particular metric in order to identify threats to its implementation. Using this process, a list of 750 potential metrics was narrowed to 25 that were selected for scorecard inclusion. This decision analysis process created a more transparent, reproducible approach for selecting quality metrics for clinical quality scorecards. © The Author(s) 2015.

  8. MESA: Modules for Experiments in Stellar Astrophysics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paxton, Bill; Bildsten, Lars; Dotter, Aaron; Herwig, Falk; Lesaffre, Pierre; Timmes, Frank

    2010-10-01

    Stellar physics and evolution calculations enable a broad range of research in astrophysics. Modules for Experiments in Stellar Astrophysics (MESA) is a suite of open source libraries for a wide range of applications in computational stellar astrophysics. A newly designed 1-D stellar evolution module, MESA star, combines many of the numerical and physics modules for simulations of a wide range of stellar evolution scenarios ranging from very-low mass to massive stars, including advanced evolutionary phases. MESA star solves the fully coupled structure and composition equations simultaneously. It uses adaptive mesh refinement and sophisticated timestep controls, and supports shared memory parallelism based on OpenMP. Independently usable modules provide equation of state, opacity, nuclear reaction rates, and atmosphere boundary conditions. Each module is constructed as a separate Fortran 95 library with its own public interface. Examples include comparisons to other codes and show evolutionary tracks of very low mass stars, brown dwarfs, and gas giant planets; the complete evolution of a 1 Msun star from the pre-main sequence to a cooling white dwarf; the Solar sound speed profile; the evolution of intermediate mass stars through the thermal pulses on the He-shell burning AGB phase; the interior structure of slowly pulsating B Stars and Beta Cepheids; evolutionary tracks of massive stars from the pre-main sequence to the onset of core collapse; stars undergoing Roche lobe overflow; and accretion onto a neutron star.

  9. Decision aiding in plastic surgery: a multicriteria analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luiz Flávio Autran Monteiro Gomes

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this article is to present, through a real case, a practical way, based on Multicriteria Decision Aiding, to support decision making in Plastic Surgery. The case studied was a Caucasian woman of 36 years of age with mammarian hypertrophia with ptosis and abdominal lipodystrophy, making it necessary to select the most adequate techniques for the best aesthetic result. For this purpose, the multicriteria methods Even Swaps and PrOACT were used. Three plastic surgeons working in the city of Rio de Janeiro with equivalent professional experience were consulted as decision agents. In order to define the objectives to be achieved, the criteria relevant to the making of the decision and the alternatives which could be used were identified. Throughout this identification and in the later analysis the surgeons participated in the application of the methods, which contributed towards facilitating their acceptance of the multicriteria analysis in their decision making. It was confirmed, in this case study, that the use of Multicriteria Decision Aiding tends to make the medical decision more wide ranging and, above all, transparent. The plastic surgeons themselves validated the analysis, considering it fully consistent with their professional experience.

  10. Social influence and perceptual decision making: a diffusion model analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Germar, Markus; Schlemmer, Alexander; Krug, Kristine; Voss, Andreas; Mojzisch, Andreas

    2014-02-01

    Classic studies on social influence used simple perceptual decision-making tasks to examine how the opinions of others change individuals' judgments. Since then, one of the most fundamental questions in social psychology has been whether social influence can alter basic perceptual processes. To address this issue, we used a diffusion model analysis. Diffusion models provide a stochastic approach for separating the cognitive processes underlying speeded binary decisions. Following this approach, our study is the first to disentangle whether social influence on decision making is due to altering the uptake of available sensory information or due to shifting the decision criteria. In two experiments, we found consistent evidence for the idea that social influence alters the uptake of available sensory evidence. By contrast, participants did not adjust their decision criteria.

  11. Multi-criteria decision analysis for use in transport decision making

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    1 Introduction The most common methodology applied so far to the evaluation of transport systems has been conventional cost-benefit analysis (CBA) (Janic, 2003), which supported by traffic- and impact model calculations provides the decision-makers with a monetary assessment of the project...... the recent years that besides the social costs and benefits associated with transport other impacts that are more difficult to monetise should also have influence on the decision making process. This is in many developed countries realised in the transport planning, which takes into account a wide range......, however, commonly agreed that the final decision making concerning transport infrastructure projects in many cases will depend on other aspects besides the monetary ones assessed in a socio-economic analysis. Nevertheless, an assessment framework such as the Danish one (DMT, 2003) does not provide any...

  12. Use of Earth Observation Data for Environmental Monitoring in the Horn of Africa within the Framework of MESA IGAD THEMA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Atheru, Zachary; Fortunate, Muyambi

    2015-12-01

    The achievements and challenges on the implementation of activities of IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) regarding the use of Earth Observation data for environmental monitoring in the Horn of Africa within the framework of MESA IGAD THEMA. Examples of the outputs from the Land Degradation Assessment, Natural Habitat Conservation and Forest Monitoring are provided and explained. The difficulties faced in communicating and disseminating information particularly to decision makers are highlighted. Also outlined is the scope and expected results from the Monitoring for Environment and Security in Africa (MESA) IGAD Thematic action and emphasis placed on lessons learnt on (i) developing services from products (ii) strengthening national networks (III) disseminating and communicating information to decision and policy makers, and (iv) capacity building. The overall objective of the MESA programme in the IGAD region is to enhance land degradation mitigation, natural habitats assessment and Forest Monitoring for sustainable management of environmental resources through the use of Earth Observation data. This is done by strengthening the Earth Observation information management capacity of regional and national institutions in order to support decision and policy making processes. The services produce and distribute regularly land degradation index maps, land cover change indicators on IGAD selected Natural Habitats areas, Forest degradation, deforestation extent, vulnerability index map. It also develops the political and policy frameworks that are strengthened to ensure an active and sustainable participation of IGAD member states in global environmental surveillance initiatives and finally give adequate technical capacity of MESA IGAD stakeholders.

  13. Decision analysis for the selection of tank waste retrieval technology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    DAVIS, FREDDIE J.; DEWEESE, GREGORY C.; PICKETT, WILLIAM W.

    2000-01-01

    The objective of this report is to supplement the C-104 Alternatives Generation and Analysis (AGA) by providing a decision analysis for the alternative technologies described therein. The decision analysis used the Multi-Attribute Utility Analysis (MUA) technique. To the extent possible information will come from the AGA. Where data are not available, elicitation of expert opinion or engineering judgment is used and reviewed by the authors of the AGA. A key element of this particular analysis is the consideration of varying perspectives of parties interested in or affected by the decision. The six alternatives discussed are: sluicing; sluicing with vehicle mounted transfer pump; borehole mining; vehicle with attached sluicing nozzle and pump; articulated arm with attached sluicing nozzle; and mechanical dry retrieval. These are evaluated using four attributes, namely: schedule, cost, environmental impact, and safety

  14. Decision analysis for the selection of tank waste retrieval technology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    DAVIS,FREDDIE J.; DEWEESE,GREGORY C.; PICKETT,WILLIAM W.

    2000-03-01

    The objective of this report is to supplement the C-104 Alternatives Generation and Analysis (AGA) by providing a decision analysis for the alternative technologies described therein. The decision analysis used the Multi-Attribute Utility Analysis (MUA) technique. To the extent possible information will come from the AGA. Where data are not available, elicitation of expert opinion or engineering judgment is used and reviewed by the authors of the AGA. A key element of this particular analysis is the consideration of varying perspectives of parties interested in or affected by the decision. The six alternatives discussed are: sluicing; sluicing with vehicle mounted transfer pump; borehole mining; vehicle with attached sluicing nozzle and pump; articulated arm with attached sluicing nozzle; and mechanical dry retrieval. These are evaluated using four attributes, namely: schedule, cost, environmental impact, and safety.

  15. 'Bread Loaf' Mesa East of Phlegra Montes

    Science.gov (United States)

    2002-01-01

    [figure removed for brevity, see original site] An isolated mesa east of the Phlegra Montes in northeastern Elysium Planitia has a cracked surface that, combined with its overall shape, gives the appearance of a giant loaf of bread. Other mesas with similar surfaces are found in the area, suggesting that at one time these mesas were part of a continuous layer of material. It is likely that at that time, some process caused the graben-like cracks to form. Later erosion of the cracked layer left only the isolated mesas seen in the THEMIS image. One clue that supports this scenario is the presence of many filled and eroded craters throughout the scene but no fresh ones. One way to produce this landscape begins with an ancient and heavily cratered surface that subsequently is buried by some other material. If this overburden was stripped off relatively recently, not enough time would have passed to allow for a new population of fresh craters to be produced. The result would be a landscape with isolated mesas of younger material on top of an ancient, cratered surface.Note: this THEMIS visual image has not been radiometrically nor geometrically calibrated for this preliminary release. An empirical correction has been performed to remove instrumental effects. A linear shift has been applied in the cross-track and down-track direction to approximate spacecraft and planetary motion. Fully calibrated and geometrically projected images will be released through the Planetary Data System in accordance with Project policies at a later time.NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory manages the 2001 Mars Odyssey mission for NASA's Office of Space Science, Washington, D.C. The Thermal Emission Imaging System (THEMIS) was developed by Arizona State University, Tempe, in collaboration with Raytheon Santa Barbara Remote Sensing. The THEMIS investigation is led by Dr. Philip Christensen at Arizona State University. Lockheed Martin Astronautics, Denver, is the prime contractor for the Odyssey

  16. Can Streamlined Multicriteria Decision Analysis Be Used to Implement Shared Decision Making for Colorectal Cancer Screening?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dolan, James G; Boohaker, Emily; Allison, Jeroan; Imperiale, Thomas F

    2014-08-01

    Current US colorectal cancer screening guidelines that call for shared decision making regarding the choice among several recommended screening options are difficult to implement. Multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) is an established method well suited for supporting shared decision making. Our study goal was to determine whether a streamlined form of MCDA using rank-order-based judgments can accurately assess patients' colorectal cancer screening priorities. We converted priorities for 4 decision criteria and 3 subcriteria regarding colorectal cancer screening obtained from 484 average-risk patients using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) in a prior study into rank-order-based priorities using rank order centroids. We compared the 2 sets of priorities using Spearman rank correlation and nonparametric Bland-Altman limits of agreement analysis. We assessed the differential impact of using the rank-order-based versus the AHP-based priorities on the results of a full MCDA comparing 3 currently recommended colorectal cancer screening strategies. Generalizability of the results was assessed using Monte Carlo simulation. Correlations between the 2 sets of priorities for the 7 criteria ranged from 0.55 to 0.92. The proportions of differences between rank-order-based and AHP-based priorities that were more than ±0.15 ranged from 1% to 16%. Differences in the full MCDA results were minimal, and the relative rankings of the 3 screening options were identical more than 88% of the time. The Monte Carlo simulation results were similar. Rank-order-based MCDA could be a simple, practical way to guide individual decisions and assess population decision priorities regarding colorectal cancer screening strategies. Additional research is warranted to further explore the use of these methods for promoting shared decision making. © The Author(s) 2013.

  17. Decision Analysis System for Selection of Appropriate Decontamination Technologies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ebadian, M.A.; Boudreaux, J.F.; Chinta, S.; Zanakis, S.H.

    1998-01-01

    The principal objective for designing Decision Analysis System for Decontamination (DASD) is to support DOE-EM's endeavor to employ the most efficient and effective technologies for treating radiologically contaminated surfaces while minimizing personnel and environmental risks. DASD will provide a tool for environmental decision makers to improve the quality, consistency, and efficacy of their technology selection decisions. The system will facilitate methodical comparisons between innovative and baseline decontamination technologies and aid in identifying the most suitable technologies for performing surface decontamination at DOE environmental restoration sites

  18. Decision Analysis System for Selection of Appropriate Decontamination Technologies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ebadian, M.A.; Boudreaux, J.F.; Chinta, S.; Zanakis, S.H.

    1998-01-01

    The principal objective for designing Decision Analysis System for Decontamination (DASD) is to support DOE-EM's endeavor to employ the most efficient and effective technologies for treating radiologically contaminated surfaces while minimizing personnel and environmental risks. DASD will provide a tool for environmental decision makers to improve the quality, consistency, and efficacy of their technology selection decisions. The system will facilitate methodical comparisons between innovative and baseline decontamination technologies and aid in identifying the most suitable technologies for performing surface decontamination at DOE environmental restoration sites.

  19. An introduction to clinical decision analysis in ophthalmology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Korah Sanita

    1999-01-01

    Full Text Available Ophthalmologists are often confronted with difficult clinical management problems. In such cases, even published experience may be limited; consequently multiple, generally unproven management options are usually available. When placed in such situations, most of us decide on the most appropriate course of action based on intuition or (limited previous experience. In this article, we use examples to introduce the concept of decision analysis, a method of generating objective decisions for complex clinical problems.

  20. Decision analysis for cleanup strategies in an urban environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sinkko, K.; Ikaeheimonen, T.K.

    2000-01-01

    The values entering the decisions on protective actions, as concerning the society, are multidimensional. People have strong feelings and beliefs about these values, some of which are not numerically quantified and do not exist in monetary form. The decision analysis is applied in planning the recovery operations to clean up an urban environment in the event of a hypothetical nuclear power plant accident assisting in rendering explicit and apparent all factors involved and evaluating their relative importance. (author)

  1. Computerization of the safeguards analysis decision process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ehinger, M.H.

    1990-01-01

    This paper reports that safeguards regulations are evolving to meet new demands for timeliness and sensitivity in detecting the loss or unauthorized use of sensitive nuclear materials. The opportunities to meet new rules, particularly in bulk processing plants, involve developing techniques which use modern, computerized process control and information systems. Using these computerized systems in the safeguards analysis involves all the challenges of the man-machine interface experienced in the typical process control application and adds new dimensions to accuracy requirements, data analysis, and alarm resolution in the regulatory environment

  2. Application of decision analysis in antibiotic formulary choices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Szymusiak-Mutnick, B; Mutnick, A H

    1994-01-01

    To introduce the reader to the fundamentals involved in using decision analysis as a tool in evaluating the associated costs and effectiveness of comparable therapeutic agents. Currently available literature citations were used to provide the reader with basic references whose purpose is to provide a step-by-step approach for using Decision Analysis in conducting a cost-effective comparison of three commonly used antibiotics. Data were gathered from a previously conducted retrospective chart review where the three antibiotics were used for either prophylactic, empiric, or documented infections. Although this study was limited by its retrospective nature, the reader can use the data to appreciate the fundamentals of decision analysis. The continually changing climate in healthcare and the added visibility of pharmacologic agents in the treatment and prevention of disease has increased pressure on pharmacy departments to provide therapeutic agents that are cost-effective. Decision analysis can be used to compare therapeutic agents, in terms of financial as well as clinical outcomes, in a structured fashion that all members of the health care team can understand. The application of Decision analysis is appropriate for many therapeutic agents, not just antibiotics.

  3. Use of multidimensional analysis for farm decision making following ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Use of multidimensional analysis for farm decision making following performance of five cowpea varieties on a farmer's field. ... The growth parameters were fitted to a multiple (step add-delete) regression model with cowpea yield as the response variable. The analysis showed that the growth parameter contributed in some ...

  4. TESTING MULTI-CRITERIA DECISION ANALYSIS FOR MORE TRANSPARENT RESOURCE-ALLOCATION DECISION MAKING IN COLOMBIA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castro Jaramillo, Hector Eduardo; Goetghebeur, Mireille; Moreno-Mattar, Ornella

    2016-01-01

    In 2012, Colombia experienced an important institutional transformation after the establishment of the Health Technology Assessment Institute (IETS), the disbandment of the Regulatory Commission for Health and the reassignment of reimbursement decision-making powers to the Ministry of Health and Social Protection (MoHSP). These dynamic changes provided the opportunity to test Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) for systematic and more transparent resource-allocation decision-making. During 2012 and 2013, the MCDA framework Evidence and Value: Impact on Decision Making (EVIDEM) was tested in Colombia. This consisted of a preparatory stage in which the investigators conducted literature searches and produced HTA reports for four interventions of interest, followed by a panel session with decision makers. This method was contrasted with a current approach used in Colombia for updating the publicly financed benefits package (POS), where narrative health technology assessment (HTA) reports are presented alongside comprehensive budget impact analyses (BIAs). Disease severity, size of population, and efficacy ranked at the top among fifteen preselected relevant criteria. MCDA estimates of technologies of interest ranged between 71 to 90 percent of maximum value. The ranking of technologies was sensitive to the methods used. Participants considered that a two-step approach including an MCDA template, complemented by a detailed BIA would be the best approach to assist decision-making in this context. Participants agreed that systematic priority setting should take place in Colombia. This work may serve as the basis to the MoHSP on its interest of setting up a systematic and more transparent process for resource-allocation decision-making.

  5. Contaminant Transport Parameters for the Groundwater Flow and Contaminant Transport Model of Corrective Action Units 101 and 102: Central and Western Pahute Mesa, Nye County, Nevada, Revision 0

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Drici, Warda [International Technologies Corporation, Las Vegas, NV (United States)

    2003-08-01

    This report documents the analysis of the available transport parameter data conducted in support of the development of a Corrective Action Unit (CAU) groundwater flow model for Central and Western Pahute Mesa: CAUs 101 and 102.

  6. Hydrologic Data for the Groundwater Flow and Contaminant Transport Model of Corrective Action Units 101 and 102: Central and Western Pahute Mesa, Nye County, Nevada, Revision 0

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Drici, Warda [Stoller-Navarro Joint Venture, Las Vegas, NV (United States)

    2004-02-01

    This report documents the analysis of the available hydrologic data conducted in support of the development of a Corrective Action Unit (CAU) groundwater flow model for Central and Western Pahute Mesa: CAUs 101 and 102.

  7. Canine neoplasia and exposure to uranium mill tailings in Mesa County, Colorado

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reif, J.S.; Schweitzer, D.J.; Ferguson, S.W.; Benjamin, S.A.

    1983-01-01

    A canine cancer registry was established for Mesa County, Colorado in order to collect material for a case control analysis of exposure to uranium tailings. Between 1979 and 1981, 212 cases of canine cancer were confirmed histologically. Based on the address provided at the time of diagnosis, 33 dogs (15.6%) lived in a house with some exposure to uranium tailings. A control group, comprised of dogs with a histologic diagnosis other than cancer, was stratified according to hospital and matched with cases on a 1:1 basis. No significant differences were noted with respect to exposure to uranium tailings for total cancers or cancers of specific sites including lymph node, breast, liver, testicle and bone. The overall estimated relative risk was 0.70 (95% CI 0.04 to 1.16). Canine population estimates were derived for Mesa County in order to develop crude incidence rates for the major types and sites of cancer. Crude rates were compared with those published previously for Alameda County, California and Tulsa County, Oklahoma. Mesa County rates for total cancer incidence, connective tissue tumors and non melanoma skin cancer were higher than those reported for Alameda County. When compared with Tulsa County, Mesa County rates for total cancer, breast cancer, melanoma and mastocytoma were lower than expected while rates for osteosarcoma, hemangiosarcoma and fibrosarcoma significantly exceeded expected values

  8. Decision-making in irrigation networks: Selecting appropriate canal structures using multi-attribute decision analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hosseinzade, Zeinab; Pagsuyoin, Sheree A; Ponnambalam, Kumaraswamy; Monem, Mohammad J

    2017-12-01

    The stiff competition for water between agriculture and non-agricultural production sectors makes it necessary to have effective management of irrigation networks in farms. However, the process of selecting flow control structures in irrigation networks is highly complex and involves different levels of decision makers. In this paper, we apply multi-attribute decision making (MADM) methodology to develop a decision analysis (DA) framework for evaluating, ranking and selecting check and intake structures for irrigation canals. The DA framework consists of identifying relevant attributes for canal structures, developing a robust scoring system for alternatives, identifying a procedure for data quality control, and identifying a MADM model for the decision analysis. An application is illustrated through an analysis for automation purposes of the Qazvin irrigation network, one of the oldest and most complex irrigation networks in Iran. A survey questionnaire designed based on the decision framework was distributed to experts, managers, and operators of the Qazvin network and to experts from the Ministry of Power in Iran. Five check structures and four intake structures were evaluated. A decision matrix was generated from the average scores collected from the survey, and was subsequently solved using TOPSIS (Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution) method. To identify the most critical structure attributes for the selection process, optimal attribute weights were calculated using Entropy method. For check structures, results show that the duckbill weir is the preferred structure while the pivot weir is the least preferred. Use of the duckbill weir can potentially address the problem with existing Amil gates where manual intervention is required to regulate water levels during periods of flow extremes. For intake structures, the Neyrpic® gate and constant head orifice are the most and least preferred alternatives, respectively. Some advantages

  9. Initial Risk Analysis and Decision Making Framework

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Engel, David W.

    2012-02-01

    Commercialization of new carbon capture simulation initiative (CCSI) technology will include two key elements of risk management, namely, technical risk (will process and plant performance be effective, safe, and reliable) and enterprise risk (can project losses and costs be controlled within the constraints of market demand to maintain profitability and investor confidence). Both of these elements of risk are incorporated into the risk analysis subtask of Task 7. Thus far, this subtask has developed a prototype demonstration tool that quantifies risk based on the expected profitability of expenditures when retrofitting carbon capture technology on a stylized 650 MW pulverized coal electric power generator. The prototype is based on the selection of specific technical and financial factors believed to be important determinants of the expected profitability of carbon capture, subject to uncertainty. The uncertainty surrounding the technical performance and financial variables selected thus far is propagated in a model that calculates the expected profitability of investments in carbon capture and measures risk in terms of variability in expected net returns from these investments. Given the preliminary nature of the results of this prototype, additional work is required to expand the scope of the model to include additional risk factors, additional information on extant and proposed risk factors, the results of a qualitative risk factor elicitation process, and feedback from utilities and other interested parties involved in the carbon capture project. Additional information on proposed distributions of these risk factors will be integrated into a commercial implementation framework for the purpose of a comparative technology investment analysis.

  10. 36 CFR 7.39 - Mesa Verde National Park.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 36 Parks, Forests, and Public Property 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Mesa Verde National Park. 7.39 Section 7.39 Parks, Forests, and Public Property NATIONAL PARK SERVICE, DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR SPECIAL REGULATIONS, AREAS OF THE NATIONAL PARK SYSTEM § 7.39 Mesa Verde National Park. (a) Visiting of...

  11. LOPEZ DE MESA Y LA MEDICINA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Humberto Roselli

    1985-04-01

    Full Text Available

    Hace apenas dos meses la Academia Nacional de Medicina y la Sociedad Colombiana de Historia de la Medicina iniciaban en este mismo recinto el homenaje del cuerpo médico colombiano a la memoria del Profesor Luis López de Mesa con motivo del primer centenario de su nacimiento, homenaje que ahora culmina con esta nueva sesión solenme conjunta.

    Fue la del Profesor López de Mesa una vida eminente en grado sumo, habiéndose destacado en todas las actividades que emprendiera, como se ha recordado profudamente en estos días. Autor de más de 20 obras que incluyeron novelas, tratados de sociología, de historia colombiana, ensayos filosóficos y reflexiones personales; hombre público que se destacó como Ministro de Educación, como parlamentario y diplomático, y luego como Ministro de Relaciones Exteriores, Rector de la Universidad Nacional; Académico y Presidente de la Academia Nacional de Medicina,Miembro de las de la Lengua, de Historia y de Ciencia Exactas, Físicas y Naturales; Presidente del Colegio Máximo de Academias; prácticamente no hubo campo de la inteligencia y de la cultura colombianas que el Profesor López de Mesa no hubiera tocado con éxito y en los cuales no hubiera dejado huellas de su pensamiento y de su trajín humanista. Se le considera como uno de los fundadores de la sociología en Colombia y un estilista difícil pero correcto y profundo. La trayectoria de su vida pública es aún ampliamente recordada en nuestro medio.

    En aquella ocasión hicimos un repaso de la carrera del Profesor López de Mesa como médico y psiquiatra y escudriñamos algunas de las circunstancias de su formación científica que habrían posteriormente de reflejarse en su obra como sociólogo y estadista.! En esta oportunidad resumimos aquellos y algunos otros detalles.

  12. Use of decision analysis techniques to determine Hanford cleanup priorities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fassbender, L.; Gregory, R.; Winterfeldt, D. von; John, R.

    1992-01-01

    In January 1991, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Richland Field Office, Westinghouse Hanford Company, and the Pacific Northwest Laboratory initiated the Hanford Integrated Planning Process (HIPP) to ensure that technically sound and publicly acceptable decisions are made that support the environmental cleanup mission at Hanford. One of the HIPP's key roles is to develop an understanding of the science and technology (S and T) requirements to support the cleanup mission. This includes conducting an annual systematic assessment of the S and T needs at Hanford to support a comprehensive technology development program and a complementary scientific research program. Basic to success is a planning and assessment methodology that is defensible from a technical perspective and acceptable to the various Hanford stakeholders. Decision analysis techniques were used to help identify and prioritize problems and S and T needs at Hanford. The approach used structured elicitations to bring many Hanford stakeholders into the process. Decision analysis, which is based on the axioms and methods of utility and probability theory, is especially useful in problems characterized by uncertainties and multiple objectives. Decision analysis addresses uncertainties by laying out a logical sequence of decisions, events, and consequences and by quantifying event and consequence probabilities on the basis of expert judgments

  13. Using real options analysis to support strategic management decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kabaivanov, Stanimir; Markovska, Veneta; Milev, Mariyan

    2013-12-01

    Decision making is a complex process that requires taking into consideration multiple heterogeneous sources of uncertainty. Standard valuation and financial analysis techniques often fail to properly account for all these sources of risk as well as for all sources of additional flexibility. In this paper we explore applications of a modified binomial tree method for real options analysis (ROA) in an effort to improve decision making process. Usual cases of use of real options are analyzed with elaborate study on the applications and advantages that company management can derive from their application. A numeric results based on extending simple binomial tree approach for multiple sources of uncertainty are provided to demonstrate the improvement effects on management decisions.

  14. An extended data envelopment analysis for the decision-making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiao-Li Meng

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Based on the CCR model, we propose an extended data envelopment analysis to evaluate the efficiency of decision making units with historical input and output data. The contributions of the work are threefold. First, the input and output data of the evaluated decision making unit are variable over time, and time series method is used to analyze and predict the data. Second, there are many sample decision making units, which are divided into several ordered sample standards in terms of production strategy, and the constraint condition consists of one of the sample standards. Furthermore, the efficiency is illustrated by considering the efficiency relationship between the evaluated decision making unit and sample decision making units from constraint condition. Third, to reduce the computation complexity, we introduce an algorithm based on the binary search tree in the model to choose the sample standard that has similar behavior with the evaluated decision making unit. Finally, we provide two numerical examples to illustrate the proposed model.

  15. Reliability analysis framework for computer-assisted medical decision systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Habas, Piotr A.; Zurada, Jacek M.; Elmaghraby, Adel S.; Tourassi, Georgia D.

    2007-01-01

    We present a technique that enhances computer-assisted decision (CAD) systems with the ability to assess the reliability of each individual decision they make. Reliability assessment is achieved by measuring the accuracy of a CAD system with known cases similar to the one in question. The proposed technique analyzes the feature space neighborhood of the query case to dynamically select an input-dependent set of known cases relevant to the query. This set is used to assess the local (query-specific) accuracy of the CAD system. The estimated local accuracy is utilized as a reliability measure of the CAD response to the query case. The underlying hypothesis of the study is that CAD decisions with higher reliability are more accurate. The above hypothesis was tested using a mammographic database of 1337 regions of interest (ROIs) with biopsy-proven ground truth (681 with masses, 656 with normal parenchyma). Three types of decision models, (i) a back-propagation neural network (BPNN), (ii) a generalized regression neural network (GRNN), and (iii) a support vector machine (SVM), were developed to detect masses based on eight morphological features automatically extracted from each ROI. The performance of all decision models was evaluated using the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) analysis. The study showed that the proposed reliability measure is a strong predictor of the CAD system's case-specific accuracy. Specifically, the ROC area index for CAD predictions with high reliability was significantly better than for those with low reliability values. This result was consistent across all decision models investigated in the study. The proposed case-specific reliability analysis technique could be used to alert the CAD user when an opinion that is unlikely to be reliable is offered. The technique can be easily deployed in the clinical environment because it is applicable with a wide range of classifiers regardless of their structure and it requires neither additional

  16. Multi-criteria decision analysis integrated with GIS for radio ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Multi-criteria decision analysis integrated with GIS for radio astronomical observatory site selection in peninsular of Malaysia. R Umar, Z.Z. Abidin, Z.A. Ibrahim, M.K.A. Kamarudin, S.N. Hazmin, A Endut, H Juahir ...

  17. Decision analysis and rational countermeasures in radiation protection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sinkko, K.

    1991-09-01

    During the past few years several international organizations (ICRP, IAEA, OECD/NEA), in revising their radiation protection principles, have emphasized the importance of the rationalization and planning of intervention after a nuclear accident. An accident itself and the introduction of protective action entails risks to the people affected, monetary costs and social disruption. Thus protective actions, often including objectives which are difficult to control simultaneously, cannot be undertaken without careful contemplation and consideration of the essential consequences of decisions. Often during an accident there is not enough time for careful consideration. Decision analysis is an analyzing and thought guiding method for the definition of objectives and comparison of options. It is an appropriate methodology assisting in rendering explicit and apparent all factors involved and evaluating their relative importance. The planning of intervention with the help of decision analysis is portion of the preparation for accident situations. In this report one of the techniques of decision analysis, multi-attribute utility analysis, is presented, as concerns its application in planning protective actions in the event of radiation accidents. (orig.)

  18. Risk Analysis and Decision Making FY 2013 Milestone Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Engel, David W.; Dalton, Angela C.; Dale, Crystal; Jones, Edward; Thompson, J.

    2013-06-01

    Risk analysis and decision making is one of the critical objectives of CCSI, which seeks to use information from science-based models with quantified uncertainty to inform decision makers who are making large capital investments. The goal of this task is to develop tools and capabilities to facilitate the development of risk models tailored for carbon capture technologies, quantify the uncertainty of model predictions, and estimate the technical and financial risks associated with the system. This effort aims to reduce costs by identifying smarter demonstrations, which could accelerate development and deployment of the technology by several years.

  19. Accommodating complexity and human behaviors in decision analysis.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Backus, George A.; Siirola, John Daniel; Schoenwald, David Alan; Strip, David R.; Hirsch, Gary B.; Bastian, Mark S.; Braithwaite, Karl R.; Homer, Jack [Homer Consulting

    2007-11-01

    This is the final report for a LDRD effort to address human behavior in decision support systems. One sister LDRD effort reports the extension of this work to include actual human choices and additional simulation analyses. Another provides the background for this effort and the programmatic directions for future work. This specific effort considered the feasibility of five aspects of model development required for analysis viability. To avoid the use of classified information, healthcare decisions and the system embedding them became the illustrative example for assessment.

  20. Systematic approaches to data analysis from the Critical Decision Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martin Sedlár

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the present paper is to introduce how to analyse the qualitative data from the Critical Decision Method. At first, characterizing the method provides the meaningful introduction into the issue. This method used in naturalistic decision making research is one of the cognitive task analysis methods, it is based on the retrospective semistructured interview about critical incident from the work and it may be applied in various domains such as emergency services, military, transport, sport or industry. Researchers can make two types of methodological adaptation. Within-method adaptations modify the way of conducting the interviews and cross-method adaptations combine this method with other related methods. There are many decsriptions of conducting the interview, but the descriptions how the data should be analysed are rare. Some researchers use conventional approaches like content analysis, grounded theory or individual procedures with reference to the objectives of research project. Wong (2004 describes two approaches to data analysis proposed for this method of data collection, which are described and reviewed in the details. They enable systematic work with a large amount of data. The structured approach organizes the data according to an a priori analysis framework and it is suitable for clearly defined object of research. Each incident is studied separately. At first, the decision chart showing the main decision points and then the incident summary are made. These decision points are used to identify the relevant statements from the transcript, which are analysed in terms of the Recognition-Primed Decision Model. Finally, the results from all the analysed incidents are integrated. The limitation of the structured approach is it may not reveal some interesting concepts. The emergent themes approach helps to identify these concepts while maintaining a systematic framework for analysis and it is used for exploratory research design. It

  1. The potential for meta-analysis to support decision analysis in ecology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mengersen, Kerrie; MacNeil, M Aaron; Caley, M Julian

    2015-06-01

    Meta-analysis and decision analysis are underpinned by well-developed methods that are commonly applied to a variety of problems and disciplines. While these two fields have been closely linked in some disciplines such as medicine, comparatively little attention has been paid to the potential benefits of linking them in ecology, despite reasonable expectations that benefits would be derived from doing so. Meta-analysis combines information from multiple studies to provide more accurate parameter estimates and to reduce the uncertainty surrounding them. Decision analysis involves selecting among alternative choices using statistical information that helps to shed light on the uncertainties involved. By linking meta-analysis to decision analysis, improved decisions can be made, with quantification of the costs and benefits of alternate decisions supported by a greater density of information. Here, we briefly review concepts of both meta-analysis and decision analysis, illustrating the natural linkage between them and the benefits from explicitly linking one to the other. We discuss some examples in which this linkage has been exploited in the medical arena and how improvements in precision and reduction of structural uncertainty inherent in a meta-analysis can provide substantive improvements to decision analysis outcomes by reducing uncertainty in expected loss and maximising information from across studies. We then argue that these significant benefits could be translated to ecology, in particular to the problem of making optimal ecological decisions in the face of uncertainty. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  2. A framework for sensitivity analysis of decision trees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamiński, Bogumił; Jakubczyk, Michał; Szufel, Przemysław

    2018-01-01

    In the paper, we consider sequential decision problems with uncertainty, represented as decision trees. Sensitivity analysis is always a crucial element of decision making and in decision trees it often focuses on probabilities. In the stochastic model considered, the user often has only limited information about the true values of probabilities. We develop a framework for performing sensitivity analysis of optimal strategies accounting for this distributional uncertainty. We design this robust optimization approach in an intuitive and not overly technical way, to make it simple to apply in daily managerial practice. The proposed framework allows for (1) analysis of the stability of the expected-value-maximizing strategy and (2) identification of strategies which are robust with respect to pessimistic/optimistic/mode-favoring perturbations of probabilities. We verify the properties of our approach in two cases: (a) probabilities in a tree are the primitives of the model and can be modified independently; (b) probabilities in a tree reflect some underlying, structural probabilities, and are interrelated. We provide a free software tool implementing the methods described.

  3. Archaeological investigations on the Buckboard Mesa Road Project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Amick, D.S.; Henton, G.H.; Pippin, L.C.

    1991-10-01

    In 1986, the Desert Research Institute (DRI) conducted an archaeological reconnaissance of a new alignment for the Buckboard Mesa Road on the Nevada Test Site for the Department of Energy (DOE). During this reconnaissance, several archaeological sites of National Register quality were discovered and recorded including a large quarry, site 26Ny4892, and a smaller lithic scatter, site 26Ny4894. Analysis of the debitage at 26Ny4892 indicates that this area was used primarily as a quarry for relatively small cobbles of obsidian found in the alluvium. Lithic reduction techniques used here are designed for efficiently reducing small pieces of toolstone and are oriented towards producing flake blanks from small cores and bifacially reducing exhausted cores. Projectile point cross references indicate that the area has seen at least casual use for about 10,000 years and more sustained use for the last 3,000 years. Initial obsidian hydration measurements indicate sustained use of the quarry for about the last 3,000 years although the loci of activities appear to change over time. Based on this study, the DRI recommends that quarrying activities in the area of 26Ny4892 are sufficiently sampled and that additional investigations into that aspect of prehistoric activity in the area are not necessary. This does not apply to other aspects of prehistoric use. DRI recommends that preconstruction surveys continue to identify nonquarrying, prehistoric utilization of the area. With the increased traffic on the Buckboard Mesa Road, there is a greater potential for vandalism to sites of National Register-quality located near the road. The DRI recommends that during the orientation briefing the workers at the Test Site be educated about the importance of cultural resources and the need for their protection. 202 refs., 41 figs., 52 tabs.

  4. Decision Making in Nursing Practice: A Concept Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johansen, Mary L; O'Brien, Janice L

    2016-01-01

    The study aims to gain an understanding of the concept of decision making as it relates to the nurse practice environment. Rodgers' evolutionary method on concept analysis was used as a framework for the study of the concept. Articles from 1952 to 2014 were reviewed from PsycINFO, Medline, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL), JSTOR, PubMed, and Science Direct. Findings suggest that decision making in the nurse practice environment is a complex process, integral to the nursing profession. The definition of decision making, and the attributes, antecedents, and consequences, are discussed. Contextual factors that influence the process are also discussed. An exemplar is presented to illustrate the concept. Decision making in the nurse practice environment is a dynamic conceptual process that may affect patient outcomes. Nurses need to call upon ways of knowing to make sound decisions and should be self-reflective in order to develop the process further in the professional arena. The need for further research is discussed. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  5. Multivariate analysis of flow cytometric data using decision trees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simon, Svenja; Guthke, Reinhard; Kamradt, Thomas; Frey, Oliver

    2012-01-01

    Characterization of the response of the host immune system is important in understanding the bidirectional interactions between the host and microbial pathogens. For research on the host site, flow cytometry has become one of the major tools in immunology. Advances in technology and reagents allow now the simultaneous assessment of multiple markers on a single cell level generating multidimensional data sets that require multivariate statistical analysis. We explored the explanatory power of the supervised machine learning method called "induction of decision trees" in flow cytometric data. In order to examine whether the production of a certain cytokine is depended on other cytokines, datasets from intracellular staining for six cytokines with complex patterns of co-expression were analyzed by induction of decision trees. After weighting the data according to their class probabilities, we created a total of 13,392 different decision trees for each given cytokine with different parameter settings. For a more realistic estimation of the decision trees' quality, we used stratified fivefold cross validation and chose the "best" tree according to a combination of different quality criteria. While some of the decision trees reflected previously known co-expression patterns, we found that the expression of some cytokines was not only dependent on the co-expression of others per se, but was also dependent on the intensity of expression. Thus, for the first time we successfully used induction of decision trees for the analysis of high dimensional flow cytometric data and demonstrated the feasibility of this method to reveal structural patterns in such data sets.

  6. System for decision analysis support on complex waste management issues

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shropshire, D.E.

    1997-01-01

    A software system called the Waste Flow Analysis has been developed and applied to complex environmental management processes for the United States Department of Energy (US DOE). The system can evaluate proposed methods of waste retrieval, treatment, storage, transportation, and disposal. Analysts can evaluate various scenarios to see the impacts to waste slows and schedules, costs, and health and safety risks. Decision analysis capabilities have been integrated into the system to help identify preferred alternatives based on a specific objectives may be to maximize the waste moved to final disposition during a given time period, minimize health risks, minimize costs, or combinations of objectives. The decision analysis capabilities can support evaluation of large and complex problems rapidly, and under conditions of variable uncertainty. The system is being used to evaluate environmental management strategies to safely disposition wastes in the next ten years and reduce the environmental legacy resulting from nuclear material production over the past forty years

  7. Evolving R Coronae Borealis Stars with MESA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clayton, Geoffrey C.; Lauer, Amber; Chatzopoulos, Emmanouil; Frank, Juhan

    2018-01-01

    R Coronae Borealis (RCB) stars form a small class of cool, carbon-rich supergiants that have almost no hydrogen. They undergo extreme, irregular declines in brightness of up to 8 magnitudes due to the formation of thick clouds of carbon dust. Two scenarios have been proposed for the origin of an RCB star: the merger of a CO/He white dwarf (WD) binary and a final helium-shell flash. We are using a combination of 3D hydrodynamics codes and the 1D MESA (Modules for Experiments in Stellar Astrophysics) stellar evolution code including nucleosynthesis to construct post-merger spherical models based on realistic merger progenitor models and on our hydrodynamical simulations, and then following the evolution into the region of the HR diagram where RCB stars are located. We are investigating nucleosynthesis in the dynamically accreting material of CO/He WD mergers which may provide a suitable environment for significant production of 18O and the very low 16O/18O values observed.Our MESA modeling consists of two steps: first mimicking the WD merger event using two different techniques, (a) by choosing a very high mass accretion rate with appropriate abundances and (b) by applying "stellar engineering" to an initial CO WD model to account for the newly merged material by applying an entropy adjusting procedure. Second, we follow the post-merger evolution using a large nuclear reaction network including the effects of convective and rotational instabilities to the mixing of material in order to match the observed RCB abundances. MESA follows the evolution of the merger product as it expands and cools to become an RCB star. We then examine the surface abundances and compare them to the observed RCB abundances. We also investigate how long fusion continues in the He shell near the core and how this processed material is mixed up to the surface of the star. We then model the later evolution of RCB stars to determine their likely lifetimes and endpoints when they have returned to

  8. The Methods of Sensitivity Analysis and Their Usage for Analysis of Multicriteria Decision

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rūta Simanavičienė

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we describe the application's fields of the sensitivity analysis methods. We pass in review the application of these methods in multiple criteria decision making, when the initial data are numbers. We formulate the problem, which of the sensitivity analysis methods is more effective for the usage in the decision making process.Article in Lithuanian

  9. Analysis of Production and Location Decisions by Means of Multi-Criteria Analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    P. Nijkamp (Peter); J. Spronk (Jaap)

    1979-01-01

    textabstractDuring the last few years economists and operations researchers have paid much attention to multi-criteria analysis as a tool in modern decision-making. The basic feature of multi-criteria analysis is the fact that a wide variety of relevant decision aspects can be taken into account

  10. SEDIMENT ANALYSIS NETWORK FOR DECISION SUPPORT (SANDS) LANDSAT GEOLOGICAL SURVEY OF AL (GSA) ANALYSIS V1

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Sediment Analysis Network for Decision Support (SANDS) Landsat Geological Survey of AL (GSA) Analysis dataset analyzed changes in the coastal shoreline and...

  11. Design of Graph Analysis Model to support Decision Making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    An, Sang Ha; Lee, Sung Jin; Chang, Soon Heung; Kim, Sung Ho; Kim, Tae Woon

    2005-01-01

    Korea is meeting the growing electric power needs by using nuclear, fissile, hydro energy and so on. But we can not use fissile energy forever, and the people's consideration about nature has been changed. So we have to prepare appropriate energy by the conditions before people need more energy. And we should prepare dynamic response because people's need would be changed as the time goes on. So we designed graphic analysis model (GAM) for the dynamic analysis of decision on the energy sources. It can support Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) analysis based on Graphic User Interface

  12. Multi-criteria decision analysis: Limitations, pitfalls, and practical difficulties

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kujawski, Edouard

    2003-02-01

    The 2002 Winter Olympics women's figure skating competition is used as a case study to illustrate some of the limitations, pitfalls, and practical difficulties of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA). The paper compares several widely used models for synthesizing the multiple attributes into a single aggregate value. The various MCDA models can provide conflicting rankings of the alternatives for a common set of information even under states of certainty. Analysts involved in MCDA need to deal with the following challenging tasks: (1) selecting an appropriate analysis method, and (2) properly interpreting the results. An additional trap is the availability of software tools that implement specific MCDA models that can beguile the user with quantitative scores. These conclusions are independent of the decision domain and they should help foster better MCDA practices in many fields including systems engineering trade studies.

  13. Decision making analysis of walnut seedling production on a small ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Yomi

    2011-12-21

    Dec 21, 2011 ... Full Length Research Paper. Decision making analysis of walnut seedling production on a small family farm in Serbia. Branka Kalanović–Bulatović1, Bojan Dimitrijević1*, Zorica Vasiljević1, Zoran Rajić1,. Nebojša Ralević1 and Mladen Grbović2. 1Faculty of Agriculture, University of Belgrade, Belgrade, ...

  14. Renewable Energy Data, Analysis, and Decisions: A Guide for Practitioners

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cox, Sarah L [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Lopez, Anthony J [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Watson, Andrea C [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Grue, Nicholas W [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Leisch, Jennifer E. [United States Agency for International Development (USAID)

    2018-03-16

    High-quality renewable energy resource data and other geographic information system (GIS) data are essential for the transition to a clean energy economy that prioritizes local resources, improves resiliency, creates jobs, and promotes energy independence. This guide is intended to support policymakers and planners, as well as technical experts, consultants, and academics in incorporating improved data and analysis into renewable energy decision-making.

  15. Use of multicriteria decision analysis to address conservation conflicts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davies, A L; Bryce, R; Redpath, S M

    2013-10-01

    Conservation conflicts are increasing on a global scale and instruments for reconciling competing interests are urgently needed. Multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) is a structured, decision-support process that can facilitate dialogue between groups with differing interests and incorporate human and environmental dimensions of conflict. MCDA is a structured and transparent method of breaking down complex problems and incorporating multiple objectives. The value of this process for addressing major challenges in conservation conflict management is that MCDA helps in setting realistic goals; entails a transparent decision-making process; and addresses mistrust, differing world views, cross-scale issues, patchy or contested information, and inflexible legislative tools. Overall we believe MCDA provides a valuable decision-support tool, particularly for increasing awareness of the effects of particular values and choices for working toward negotiated compromise, although an awareness of the effect of methodological choices and the limitations of the method is vital before applying it in conflict situations. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

  16. Defender-Attacker Decision Tree Analysis to Combat Terrorism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia, Ryan J B; von Winterfeldt, Detlof

    2016-12-01

    We propose a methodology, called defender-attacker decision tree analysis, to evaluate defensive actions against terrorist attacks in a dynamic and hostile environment. Like most game-theoretic formulations of this problem, we assume that the defenders act rationally by maximizing their expected utility or minimizing their expected costs. However, we do not assume that attackers maximize their expected utilities. Instead, we encode the defender's limited knowledge about the attacker's motivations and capabilities as a conditional probability distribution over the attacker's decisions. We apply this methodology to the problem of defending against possible terrorist attacks on commercial airplanes, using one of three weapons: infrared-guided MANPADS (man-portable air defense systems), laser-guided MANPADS, or visually targeted RPGs (rocket propelled grenades). We also evaluate three countermeasures against these weapons: DIRCMs (directional infrared countermeasures), perimeter control around the airport, and hardening airplanes. The model includes deterrence effects, the effectiveness of the countermeasures, and the substitution of weapons and targets once a specific countermeasure is selected. It also includes a second stage of defensive decisions after an attack occurs. Key findings are: (1) due to the high cost of the countermeasures, not implementing countermeasures is the preferred defensive alternative for a large range of parameters; (2) if the probability of an attack and the associated consequences are large, a combination of DIRCMs and ground perimeter control are preferred over any single countermeasure. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

  17. Choosing a Commercial Broiler Strain Based on Multicriteria Decision Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hosseini SA

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available With the complexity and amount of information in a wide variety of comparative performance reports in poultry production, making a decision is difficult. This problem is overcomed only when all data can be put into a common unit. For this purpose, five different decision making analysis approaches including  Maximin, Equally likely, Weighted average, Ordered weighted averages and Technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution were used to choose the best broiler strain among three ones based on their comparative performance and carcass characteristics. Commercial broiler strains of 6000 designated as R, A, and C (each strain 2000 were randomly allocated into three treatments of five replicates. In this study, all methods showed similar results except Maximin approach. Comparing different methods indicated that strain C with the highest world share market has the best performance followed by strains R and A.

  18. Multi-criteria decision analysis using hydrological indicators for decision support - a conceptual framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Butchart-Kuhlmann, Daniel; Kralisch, Sven; Meinhardt, Markus; Fleischer, Melanie

    2017-04-01

    Assessing the quantity and quality of water available in water stressed environments under various potential climate and land-use changes is necessary for good water and environmental resources management and governance. Within the region covered by the Southern African Science Service Centre for Climate Change and Adaptive Land Management (SASSCAL) project, such areas are common. One goal of the SASSCAL project is to develop and provide an integrated decision support system (DSS) with which decision makers (DMs) within a given catchment can obtain objective information regarding potential changes in water flow quantity and timing. The SASSCAL DSS builds upon existing data storage and distribution capability, through the SASSCAL Information System (IS), as well as the J2000 hydrological model. Using output from validated J2000 models, the SASSCAL DSS incorporates the calculation of a range of hydrological indicators based upon Indicators of Hydrological Alteration/Environmental Flow Components (IHA/EFC) calculated for a historic time series (pre-impact) and a set of model simulations based upon a selection of possible climate and land-use change scenarios (post-impact). These indicators, obtained using the IHA software package, are then used as input for a multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) undertaken using the open source diviz software package. The results of these analyses will provide DMs with an indication as to how various hydrological indicators within a catchment may be altered under different future scenarios, as well providing a ranking of how each scenario is preferred according to different DM preferences. Scenarios are represented through a combination of model input data and parameter settings in J2000, and preferences are represented through criteria weighting in the MCDA. Here, the methodology is presented and applied to the J2000 Luanginga model results using a set of hypothetical decision maker preference values as input for an MCDA based on

  19. SEDIMENT ANALYSIS NETWORK FOR DECISION SUPPORT (SANDS) MODIS GULF SUBSETTED V1

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Sediment Analysis Network for Decision Support (SANDS) MODIS Gulf Subsetted -- The Sediment Analysis Network for Decision Support (SANDS) analyzes GeoTIFF images to...

  20. Tips for teachers of evidence-based medicine: making sense of decision analysis using a decision tree.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Anna; Joynt, Gavin M; Ho, Anthony M H; Keitz, Sheri; McGinn, Thomas; Wyer, Peter C

    2009-05-01

    Decision analysis is a tool that clinicians can use to choose an option that maximizes the overall net benefit to a patient. It is an explicit, quantitative, and systematic approach to decision making under conditions of uncertainty. In this article, we present two teaching tips aimed at helping clinical learners understand the use and relevance of decision analysis. The first tip demonstrates the structure of a decision tree. With this tree, a clinician may identify the optimal choice among complicated options by calculating probabilities of events and incorporating patient valuations of possible outcomes. The second tip demonstrates how to address uncertainty regarding the estimates used in a decision tree. We field tested the tips twice with interns and senior residents. Teacher preparatory time was approximately 90 minutes. The field test utilized a board and a calculator. Two handouts were prepared. Learners identified the importance of incorporating values into the decision-making process as well as the role of uncertainty. The educational objectives appeared to be reached. These teaching tips introduce clinical learners to decision analysis in a fashion aimed to illustrate principles of clinical reasoning and how patient values can be actively incorporated into complex decision making.

  1. A diffusion decision model analysis of evidence variability in the lexical decision task

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tillman, Gabriel; Osth, Adam F.; van Ravenzwaaij, Don; Heathcote, Andrew

    2017-01-01

    The lexical-decision task is among the most commonly used paradigms in psycholinguistics. In both the signal-detection theory and Diffusion Decision Model (DDM; Ratcliff, Gomez, & McKoon, Psychological Review, 111, 159–182, 2004) frameworks, lexical-decisions are based on a continuous source of

  2. Enhanced electricity system analysis for decision making - A reference book

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2000-01-01

    The objective of electricity system analysis in support of decision making is to provide comparative assessment results upon which relevant policy choices between alternative technology options and supply strategies can be based. This reference book offers analysts, planners and decision makers documented information on enhanced approaches to electricity system analysis, that can assist in achieving this objective. The book describes the main elements of comprehensive electricity system analysis and outlines an advanced integrated analysis and decision making framework for the electric power sector. Emphasis is placed on mechanisms for building consensus between interested and affected parties, and on aspects of planning that go beyond the traditional economic optimisation approach. The scope and contents of the book cover the topics to be addressed in decision making for the power sector and the process of integrating economic, social, health and environmental aspects in the comparative assessment of alternative options and strategies. The book describes and discusses overall frameworks, processes and state of the art methods and techniques available to analysts and planners for carrying out comparative assessment studies, in order to provide sound information to decision makers. This reference book is published as part of a series of technical reports and documents prepared in the framework of the inter-agency joint project (DECADES) on databases and methodologies for comparative assessment of different energy sources for electricity generation. The overall objective of the DECADES project is to enhance capabilities for incorporating economic, social, health and environmental issues in the comparative assessment of electricity generation options and strategies in the process of decision making for the power sector. The project, established in 1992, is carried out jointly by the European Commission (EC), the Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific

  3. Engaging stakeholders for adaptive management using structured decision analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Irwin, Elise R.; Kathryn, D.; Kennedy, Mickett

    2009-01-01

    Adaptive management is different from other types of management in that it includes all stakeholders (versus only policy makers) in the process, uses resource optimization techniques to evaluate competing objectives, and recognizes and attempts to reduce uncertainty inherent in natural resource systems. Management actions are negotiated by stakeholders, monitored results are compared to predictions of how the system should respond, and management strategies are adjusted in a “monitor-compare-adjust” iterative routine. Many adaptive management projects fail because of the lack of stakeholder identification, engagement, and continued involvement. Primary reasons for this vary but are usually related to either stakeholders not having ownership (or representation) in decision processes or disenfranchisement of stakeholders after adaptive management begins. We present an example in which stakeholders participated fully in adaptive management of a southeastern regulated river. Structured decision analysis was used to define management objectives and stakeholder values and to determine initial flow prescriptions. The process was transparent, and the visual nature of the modeling software allowed stakeholders to see how their interests and values were represented in the decision process. The development of a stakeholder governance structure and communication mechanism has been critical to the success of the project.

  4. La verdad servida en la mesa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos Alberto Rincón Oñate

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Mucho se habla sobre la verdad, la justicia, la reparación y la no repetición como imperativos progresivos que rigen las conversaciones en el actual proceso de paz colombiano, que tiene como lugar protagónico la mesa de negociación que se está llevando a cabo en la Habana, alrededor de la cual confluyen el Gobierno Colombiano y el grupo insurgente FARC-EP. Esta dinámica de la palabra en constante tensión sugiere una necesaria reflexión sobre la verdad de quien negocia y, particularmente, sobre el futuro excombatiente y su apuesta subjetiva, un lugar que llama a la pregunta por un lazo social que evidencia y contrapone al amo, al esclavo y al subversivo, este último, sinónimo de la búsqueda de la libertad, la igualdad y la fraternidad, tres imperativos revolucionarios que han guiado los movimientos emancipatorios.

  5. ANALYSIS AND COMPARISON OF EXISTING DECISION SUPPORT TECHNOLOGY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. A. Rybak

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The article presents the results of an analytical review and comparison of the most common managerial decision support technologies: the analytic hierarchy method, neural networks, fuzzy set theory, genetic algorithms and neural-fuzzy modeling. The advantages and disadvantages of these approaches are shown. Determine the scope of their application. It is shown that the hierarchy analysis method works well with the full initial information, but due to the need for expert comparison of alternatives and the selection of evaluation criteria has a high proportion of subjectivity. For problems in the conditions of risk and uncertainty prediction seems reasonable use of the theory of fuzzy sets and neural networks. It is also considered technology collective decision applied both in the general election, and the group of experts. It reduces the time for conciliation meetings to reach a consensus by the preliminary analysis of all views submitted for the plane in the form of points. At the same time the consistency of opinion is determined by the distance between them.

  6. Assumptions and Policy Decisions for Vital Area Identification Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Myungsu; Bae, Yeon-Kyoung; Lee, Youngseung [KHNP CRI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-10-15

    U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission and IAEA guidance indicate that certain assumptions and policy questions should be addressed to a Vital Area Identification (VAI) process. Korea Hydro and Nuclear Power conducted a VAI based on current Design Basis Threat and engineering judgement to identify APR1400 vital areas. Some of the assumptions were inherited from Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) as a sabotage logic model was based on PSA logic tree and equipment location data. This paper illustrates some important assumptions and policy decisions for APR1400 VAI analysis. Assumptions and policy decisions could be overlooked at the beginning stage of VAI, however they should be carefully reviewed and discussed among engineers, plant operators, and regulators. Through APR1400 VAI process, some of the policy concerns and assumptions for analysis were applied based on document research and expert panel discussions. It was also found that there are more assumptions to define for further studies for other types of nuclear power plants. One of the assumptions is mission time, which was inherited from PSA.

  7. Integrating technical analysis and public values in risk-based decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bohnenblust, Hans; Slovic, Paul

    1998-01-01

    Simple technical analysis cannot capture the complex scope of preferences or values of society and individuals. However, decision making needs to be sustained by formal analysis. The paper describes a policy framework which incorporates both technical analysis and aspects of public values. The framework can be used as a decision supporting tool and helps decision makers to make more informed and more transparent decisions about safety issues

  8. Selection of an optimal Landfill Location using Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis Methods

    OpenAIRE

    Mirakovski, Dejan; Peltecki, Dragi; Despodov, Zoran; Bosev, Zoran; Panov, Zoran

    2013-01-01

    This paper identifies the components necessary to develop a decision analysis framework on issues concerning the selection of a landfill location, to facilitate the selection of a multi-criteria decision analysis process and thereafter to provide guidance on the implementation of the selected multi-criteria decision analysis method within the larger context of the people, processes,and tools used in decision making.The main subject of research of this paper is the applicability of multi-crite...

  9. A Primer on Bayesian Decision Analysis With an Application to a Personalized Kidney Transplant Decision

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neapolitan, Richard; Jiang, Xia; Ladner, Daniela P.; Kaplan, Bruce

    2016-01-01

    To provide personalized medicine, we not only must determine the treatments and other decisions most likely to be effective for a patient, but also consider the patient’s tradeoff between possible benefits of therapy versus possible loss of quality of life. There are numerous studies indicating that various treatments can negatively affect quality of life. Even if we have all information available for a given patient, it is an arduous task to amass the information to reach a decision that maximizes the utility of the decision to the patient. A clinical decision support system (CDSS) is a computer program, which is designed to assist healthcare professionals with decision making tasks. By utilizing emerging large datasets, we hold promise for developing CDSSs that can predict how treatments and other decisions can affect outcomes. However, we need to go beyond that; namely our CDSS needs to account for the extent to which these decisions can affect quality of life. This manuscript provides an introduction to developing CDSSs using Bayesian networks and influence diagrams. Such CDSSs are able to recommend decisions that maximize the expected utility of the predicted outcomes to the patient. By way of comparison, we examine the benefit and challenges of the Kidney Donor Risk Index (KDRI) as a decision support tool, and we discuss several difficulties with this index. Most importantly, the KDRI does not provide a measure of the expected quality of life if the kidney is accepted versus the expected quality of life if the patient stays on dialysis. Finally, we develop a schema for an influence diagram that models the kidney transplant decision, and show how the influence diagram approach can resolve these difficulties and provide the clinician and the potential transplant recipient with a valuable decision support tool. PMID:26900809

  10. Live birth rates after MESA or TESE in men with obstructive azoospermia: is there a difference?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Wely, Madelon; Barbey, Natalie; Meissner, Andreas; Repping, Sjoerd; Silber, Sherman J.

    2015-01-01

    How do live birth rates compare after intracytoplasmic sperm injection (ICSI) for men with obstructive azoospermia when using sperm derived from testicular sperm extraction (TESE) versus microsurgical epididymal sperm aspiration (MESA)? Our study suggests that proximal epididymal sperm (from MESA)

  11. Resonant Frequency Monitoring at Mesa Arch, Canyonlands National Park

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dorsey, A.; Moore, J. R.; Thorne, M. S.; Culp, J.

    2014-12-01

    The national parks of southern Utah are home to a number of spectacular landmarks that draw visitors from across the world. However, there is currently no methodology in place to evaluate the structural health of these structures as they change through time or in the wake of a damaging event. Our study combines in-situ ambient vibration measurements with 3D numerical modeling to monitor the resonance characteristics of Mesa Arch, a prominent arch in Canyonlands National Park. We measure spectral and polarization attributes of ambient vibrations using two broadband seismometers: one placed on the arch and the other located at a distance of ~100 m for reference. Repeat measurements, ranging in duration from 1 hour to 3 days, are aimed at assessing short- and long-term changes in resonance characteristics, which in turn provide evidence of internal mechanical change. Numerical modal analysis, executed by inputting geometric and representative material properties of the arch into 3D modeling software, allows us to match the measured fundamental frequency as well as higher-order modes. Preliminary results suggest minor variations in resonant frequencies are predominantly controlled by thermal effects, i.e. changes in bulk material stiffness as the rock expands and contracts.

  12. BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE TOOLS FOR DATA ANALYSIS AND DECISION MAKING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    DEJAN ZDRAVESKI

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Every business is dynamic in nature and is affected by various external and internal factors. These factors include external market conditions, competitors, internal restructuring and re-alignment, operational optimization and paradigm shifts in the business itself. New regulations and restrictions, in combination with the above factors, contribute to the constant evolutionary nature of compelling, business-critical information; the kind of information that an organization needs to sustain and thrive. Business intelligence (“BI” is broad term that encapsulates the process of gathering information pertaining to a business and the market it functions in. This information when collated and analyzed in the right manner, can provide vital insights into the business and can be a tool to improve efficiency, reduce costs, reduce time lags and bring many positive changes. A business intelligence application helps to achieve precisely that. Successful organizations maximize the use of their data assets through business intelligence technology. The first data warehousing and decision support tools introduced companies to the power and benefits of accessing and analyzing their corporate data. Business users at every level found new, more sophisticated ways to analyze and report on the information mined from their vast data warehouses.Choosing a Business Intelligence offering is an important decision for an enterprise, one that will have a significant impact throughout the enterprise. The choice of a BI offering will affect people up and down the chain of command (senior management, analysts, and line managers and across functional areas (sales, finance, and operations. It will affect business users, application developers, and IT professionals. BI applications include the activities of decision support systems (DSS, query and reporting, online analyticalprocessing (OLAP, statistical analysis, forecasting, and data mining. Another way of phrasing this is

  13. Ethical analysis to improve decision-making on health technologies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saarni, Samuli I; Hofmann, Bjørn; Lampe, Kristian; Lühmann, Dagmar; Mäkelä, Marjukka; Velasco-Garrido, Marcial; Autti-Rämö, Ilona

    2008-08-01

    Health technology assessment (HTA) is the multidisciplinary study of the implications of the development, diffusion and use of health technologies. It supports health-policy decisions by providing a joint knowledge base for decision-makers. To increase its policy relevance, HTA tries to extend beyond effectiveness and costs to also considering the social, organizational and ethical implications of technologies. However, a commonly accepted method for analysing the ethical aspects of health technologies is lacking. This paper describes a model for ethical analysis of health technology that is easy and flexible to use in different organizational settings and cultures. The model is part of the EUnetHTA project, which focuses on the transferability of HTAs between countries. The EUnetHTA ethics model is based on the insight that the whole HTA process is value laden. It is not sufficient to only analyse the ethical consequences of a technology, but also the ethical issues of the whole HTA process must be considered. Selection of assessment topics, methods and outcomes is essentially a value-laden decision. Health technologies may challenge moral or cultural values and beliefs, and their implementation may also have significant impact on people other than the patient. These are essential considerations for health policy. The ethics model is structured around key ethical questions rather than philosophical theories, to be applicable to different cultures and usable by non-philosophers. Integrating ethical considerations into HTA can improve the relevance of technology assessments for health care and health policy in both developed and developing countries.

  14. Portfolio Decision Analysis Framework for Value-Focused Ecosystem Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Convertino, Matteo; Valverde, L. James

    2013-01-01

    Management of natural resources in coastal ecosystems is a complex process that is made more challenging by the need for stakeholders to confront the prospect of sea level rise and a host of other environmental stressors. This situation is especially true for coastal military installations, where resource managers need to balance conflicting objectives of environmental conservation against military mission. The development of restoration plans will necessitate incorporating stakeholder preferences, and will, moreover, require compliance with applicable federal/state laws and regulations. To promote the efficient allocation of scarce resources in space and time, we develop a portfolio decision analytic (PDA) framework that integrates models yielding policy-dependent predictions for changes in land cover and species metapopulations in response to restoration plans, under different climate change scenarios. In a manner that is somewhat analogous to financial portfolios, infrastructure and natural resources are classified as human and natural assets requiring management. The predictions serve as inputs to a Multi Criteria Decision Analysis model (MCDA) that is used to measure the benefits of restoration plans, as well as to construct Pareto frontiers that represent optimal portfolio allocations of restoration actions and resources. Optimal plans allow managers to maintain or increase asset values by contrasting the overall degradation of the habitat and possible increased risk of species decline against the benefits of mission success. The optimal combination of restoration actions that emerge from the PDA framework allows decision-makers to achieve higher environmental benefits, with equal or lower costs, than those achievable by adopting the myopic prescriptions of the MCDA model. The analytic framework presented here is generalizable for the selection of optimal management plans in any ecosystem where human use of the environment conflicts with the needs of

  15. Portfolio Decision Analysis Framework for Value-Focused Ecosystem Management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Convertino, Matteo; Valverde, L James

    2013-01-01

    Management of natural resources in coastal ecosystems is a complex process that is made more challenging by the need for stakeholders to confront the prospect of sea level rise and a host of other environmental stressors. This situation is especially true for coastal military installations, where resource managers need to balance conflicting objectives of environmental conservation against military mission. The development of restoration plans will necessitate incorporating stakeholder preferences, and will, moreover, require compliance with applicable federal/state laws and regulations. To promote the efficient allocation of scarce resources in space and time, we develop a portfolio decision analytic (PDA) framework that integrates models yielding policy-dependent predictions for changes in land cover and species metapopulations in response to restoration plans, under different climate change scenarios. In a manner that is somewhat analogous to financial portfolios, infrastructure and natural resources are classified as human and natural assets requiring management. The predictions serve as inputs to a Multi Criteria Decision Analysis model (MCDA) that is used to measure the benefits of restoration plans, as well as to construct Pareto frontiers that represent optimal portfolio allocations of restoration actions and resources. Optimal plans allow managers to maintain or increase asset values by contrasting the overall degradation of the habitat and possible increased risk of species decline against the benefits of mission success. The optimal combination of restoration actions that emerge from the PDA framework allows decision-makers to achieve higher environmental benefits, with equal or lower costs, than those achievable by adopting the myopic prescriptions of the MCDA model. The analytic framework presented here is generalizable for the selection of optimal management plans in any ecosystem where human use of the environment conflicts with the needs of

  16. Portfolio Decision Analysis Framework for Value-Focused Ecosystem Management.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matteo Convertino

    Full Text Available Management of natural resources in coastal ecosystems is a complex process that is made more challenging by the need for stakeholders to confront the prospect of sea level rise and a host of other environmental stressors. This situation is especially true for coastal military installations, where resource managers need to balance conflicting objectives of environmental conservation against military mission. The development of restoration plans will necessitate incorporating stakeholder preferences, and will, moreover, require compliance with applicable federal/state laws and regulations. To promote the efficient allocation of scarce resources in space and time, we develop a portfolio decision analytic (PDA framework that integrates models yielding policy-dependent predictions for changes in land cover and species metapopulations in response to restoration plans, under different climate change scenarios. In a manner that is somewhat analogous to financial portfolios, infrastructure and natural resources are classified as human and natural assets requiring management. The predictions serve as inputs to a Multi Criteria Decision Analysis model (MCDA that is used to measure the benefits of restoration plans, as well as to construct Pareto frontiers that represent optimal portfolio allocations of restoration actions and resources. Optimal plans allow managers to maintain or increase asset values by contrasting the overall degradation of the habitat and possible increased risk of species decline against the benefits of mission success. The optimal combination of restoration actions that emerge from the PDA framework allows decision-makers to achieve higher environmental benefits, with equal or lower costs, than those achievable by adopting the myopic prescriptions of the MCDA model. The analytic framework presented here is generalizable for the selection of optimal management plans in any ecosystem where human use of the environment conflicts with the

  17. Combining morphological analysis and Bayesian networks for strategic decision support

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A de Waal

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available Morphological analysis (MA and Bayesian networks (BN are two closely related modelling methods, each of which has its advantages and disadvantages for strategic decision support modelling. MA is a method for defining, linking and evaluating problem spaces. BNs are graphical models which consist of a qualitative and quantitative part. The qualitative part is a cause-and-effect, or causal graph. The quantitative part depicts the strength of the causal relationships between variables. Combining MA and BN, as two phases in a modelling process, allows us to gain the benefits of both of these methods. The strength of MA lies in defining, linking and internally evaluating the parameters of problem spaces and BN modelling allows for the definition and quantification of causal relationships between variables. Short summaries of MA and BN are provided in this paper, followed by discussions how these two computer aided methods may be combined to better facilitate modelling procedures. A simple example is presented, concerning a recent application in the field of environmental decision support.

  18. Personalized prophylactic anticoagulation decision analysis in patients with membranous nephropathy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Taewoo; Biddle, Andrea K.; Lionaki, Sofia; Derebail, Vimal K.; Barbour, Sean J.; Tannous, Sameer; Hladunewich, Michelle A.; Hu, Yichun; Poulton, Caroline J.; Mahoney, Shannon L.; Jennette, J. Charles; Hogan, Susan L.; Falk, Ronald J.; Cattran, Daniel C.; Reich, Heather N.; Nachman, Patrick H.

    2014-01-01

    Primary membranous nephropathy is associated with increased risk of venous thromboembolic events, which are inversely correlated with serum albumin levels. To evaluate the potential benefit of prophylactic anticoagulation (venous thromboembolic events prevented) relative to the risk (major bleeds), we constructed a Markov decision model. The venous thromboembolic event risk according to serum albumin was obtained from an inception cohort of 898 patients with primary membranous nephropathy. Risk estimates of hemorrhage were obtained from a systematic literature review. Benefit-to-risk ratios were predicted according to bleeding risk and serum albumin. This ratio increased with worsening hypoalbuminemia from 4.5:1 for an albumin under 3 g/dl to 13.1:1 for an albumin under 2 g/dl in patients at low bleeding risk. Patients at intermediate bleeding risk with an albumin under 2 g/dl have a moderately favorable benefit-to-risk ratio (under 5:1). Patients at high bleeding risk are unlikely to benefit from prophylactic anticoagulation regardless of albuminemia. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis, to account for uncertainty in risk estimates, confirmed these trends. From these data, we constructed a tool to estimate the likelihood of benefit based on an individual’s bleeding risk profile, serum albumin level, and acceptable benefit-to-risk ratio (http://www.gntools.com). This tool provides an approach to the decision of prophylactic anticoagulation personalized to the individual’s needs and adaptable to dynamic changes in health status and risk profile. PMID:24336031

  19. Multi-criteria decision making: an example of sensitivity analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dragan S. Pamučar

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available This study provides a model for result consistency evaluation of multicriterial decision making (MDM methods and selection of the optimal one. The model is based on the analysis of results of MDM methods, that is, the analysis of changes in rankings of MDM methods that occur as a result of alterations in input parameters. In the recommended model, we examine sensitivity analysis of MDM methods to changes in criteria weight and result consistency of methods to changes in measurement scale and the way in which we formulate criteria. In the final phase of the model, we select the most suitable method to solve the observed problem and the optimal alternative. The model is tested on an example, when the optimal MDM method selection was required in order to determine the location of the logistical center. During the selection process, TOPSIS, COPRAS, VIKOR and ELECTRE methods were considered. VIKOR method demonstrated the biggest stability of rankings and was selected as the most fit method for ranking the locations of the logistical center. Results of the demonstrated analysis indicate sensitivity of standard MDM methods to criteria considered in this work. Therefore, it is necessary, to take into account stability of the considered method during the selection process of the optimal method.

  20. A diffusion decision model analysis of evidence variability in the lexical decision task.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tillman, Gabriel; Osth, Adam F; van Ravenzwaaij, Don; Heathcote, Andrew

    2017-12-01

    The lexical-decision task is among the most commonly used paradigms in psycholinguistics. In both the signal-detection theory and Diffusion Decision Model (DDM; Ratcliff, Gomez, & McKoon, Psychological Review, 111, 159-182, 2004) frameworks, lexical-decisions are based on a continuous source of word-likeness evidence for both words and non-words. The Retrieving Effectively from Memory model of Lexical-Decision (REM-LD; Wagenmakers et al., Cognitive Psychology, 48(3), 332-367, 2004) provides a comprehensive explanation of lexical-decision data and makes the prediction that word-likeness evidence is more variable for words than non-words and that higher frequency words are more variable than lower frequency words. To test these predictions, we analyzed five lexical-decision data sets with the DDM. For all data sets, drift-rate variability changed across word frequency and non-word conditions. For the most part, REM-LD's predictions about the ordering of evidence variability across stimuli in the lexical-decision task were confirmed.

  1. Legal Knowledge as a Tool for Social Change: La Mesa por la Vida y la Salud de las Mujeres as an Expert on Colombian Abortion Law.

    Science.gov (United States)

    González Vélez, Ana Cristina; Jaramillo, Isabel Cristina

    2017-06-01

    In May 2006, Colombia's Constitutional Court liberalized abortion, introducing three circumstances under which the procedure would not be considered a crime: (1) rape or incest; (2) a risk to the woman's health or life; and (3) fetal malformations incompatible with life. Immediately following the court's ruling, known as Sentence C-355, members of La Mesa por la Vida y Salud de las Mujeres (hereinafter La Mesa) began to mobilize to ensure the decision's implementation, bearing in mind the limited impact that the legal framework endorsed by the court has had in other countries in the region. We argue that La Mesa's strategy is an innovative one in the field of legal mobilization insofar as it presumes that law can be shaped not just by public officials and universities but also by social actors engaged in the creation and diffusion of legal knowledge. In this regard, La Mesa has become a legal expert on abortion by accumulating knowledge about the multiple legal rules affecting the practice of abortion and about the situations in which these rules are to be applied. In addition, by becoming a legal expert, La Mesa has been able to persuade health providers that they will not risk criminal prosecution or being fired if they perform abortions. We call this effect of legal mobilization a "pedagogical effect" insofar as it involves the production of expertise and appropriation of knowledge by health professionals. We conclude by discussing La Mesa's choice to become a legal expert on abortion as opposed to recruiting academics to do this work or encouraging women to produce and disseminate this knowledge.

  2. School-Leaving Decisions in Australia: A Cohort Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le, Anh T.; Miller, Paul W.

    2004-01-01

    The decision to invest in education is influenced by a large number of economic, social, family, personal and institutional factors. Many of these changed in Australia during the 1970s and 1980s. Several of the more important of these changes, such as the Equal Pay for Equal Work decision of 1969, the Equal Pay for Work of Equal Value decision of…

  3. Ethical analysis to improve decision-making on health technologies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Saarni, Samuli I; Hofmann, Bjørn; Lampe, Kristian

    2008-01-01

    beyond effectiveness and costs to also considering the social, organizational and ethical implications of technologies. However, a commonly accepted method for analysing the ethical aspects of health technologies is lacking. This paper describes a model for ethical analysis of health technology...... that is easy and flexible to use in different organizational settings and cultures. The model is part of the EUnetHTA project, which focuses on the transferability of HTAs between countries. The EUnetHTA ethics model is based on the insight that the whole HTA process is value laden. It is not sufficient...... to only analyse the ethical consequences of a technology, but also the ethical issues of the whole HTA process must be considered. Selection of assessment topics, methods and outcomes is essentially a value-laden decision. Health technologies may challenge moral or cultural values and beliefs...

  4. Climate policy decisions require policy-based lifecycle analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bento, Antonio M; Klotz, Richard

    2014-05-20

    Lifecycle analysis (LCA) metrics of greenhouse gas emissions are increasingly being used to select technologies supported by climate policy. However, LCAs typically evaluate the emissions associated with a technology or product, not the impacts of policies. Here, we show that policies supporting the same technology can lead to dramatically different emissions impacts per unit of technology added, due to multimarket responses to the policy. Using a policy-based consequential LCA, we find that the lifecycle emissions impacts of four US biofuel policies range from a reduction of 16.1 gCO2e to an increase of 24.0 gCO2e per MJ corn ethanol added by the policy. The differences between these results and representative technology-based LCA measures, which do not account for the policy instrument driving the expansion in the technology, illustrate the need for policy-based LCA measures when informing policy decision making.

  5. Ethical analysis to improve decision-making on health technologies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Saarni, Samuli I; Hofmann, Bjørn; Lampe, Kristian

    2008-01-01

    that is easy and flexible to use in different organizational settings and cultures. The model is part of the EUnetHTA project, which focuses on the transferability of HTAs between countries. The EUnetHTA ethics model is based on the insight that the whole HTA process is value laden. It is not sufficient...... to only analyse the ethical consequences of a technology, but also the ethical issues of the whole HTA process must be considered. Selection of assessment topics, methods and outcomes is essentially a value-laden decision. Health technologies may challenge moral or cultural values and beliefs...... beyond effectiveness and costs to also considering the social, organizational and ethical implications of technologies. However, a commonly accepted method for analysing the ethical aspects of health technologies is lacking. This paper describes a model for ethical analysis of health technology...

  6. An approach to a constructive simplification of multiagent multicriteria decision making problems via intercriteria analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Atanassov, Krassimir; Szmidt, Eulalia; Kacprzyk, Janusz; Atanassova, Vassia

    2017-01-01

    A new multiagent multicriteria decision making procedure is proposed that considerably extends the existing methods by making it possible to intelligently reduce the set of criteria to be accounted for. The method employs elements of the novel Intercriteria Analysis method. The use of new tools, notably the intuitionistic fuzzy pairs and intuitionistic fuzzy index matrices provides additional information about the problem, addressed in the decision making procedure. Key words: decision making, multiagent systems, multicriteria decision making, intercriteria analysis, intuitionistic fuzzy estimation

  7. Simbolismo ritual entre los aymaras : mesas y yatiris

    OpenAIRE

    Fernández Juárez, Gerardo

    2011-01-01

    Las ofrendas aymaras denominadas mesas se inscriben dentro de un amplio marco genérico en el cual la reciprocidad constituye una condición indispensable en el éxito del entramado social pertinente que se establece entre las personas y los seres tutelares del altiplano. Los seres tutelares apetecen las mesas como requisito previo a cualquier tipo de acuerdo o solicitud que se les plantee. Cada uno de los platos rituales presenta una serie de ingredientes específicos cuya articulación depende d...

  8. Uses and misuses of multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) in environmental decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steele, Katie; Carmel, Yohay; Cross, Jean; Wilcox, Chris

    2009-01-01

    We focus on a class of multicriteria methods that are commonly used in environmental decision making--those that employ the weighted linear average algorithm (and this includes the popular analytic hierarchy process (AHP)). While we do not doubt the potential benefits of using formal decision methods of this type, we draw attention to the consequences of not using them well. In particular, we highlight a property of these methods that should not be overlooked when they are applied in environmental and wider decision-making contexts: the final decision or ranking of options is dependent on the choice of performance scoring scales for the criteria when the criteria weights are held constant. We compare this "sensitivity" to a well-known criticism of the AHP, and we go on to describe the more general lesson when it comes to using weighted linear average methods--a lesson concerning the relationship between criteria weights and performance scoring scales.

  9. TENDENCY OF IMPROVEMENT ANALYSIS OF VENTURE ACTIVITY FOR MANAGEMENT DECISIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G.Yu. Iakovetс

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The questions concerning the definition of current trends and prospects of venture financing new innovative enterprises as one of the most effective and alternative, but with a high degree of risk financing sources of the entity. The features of venture financing that is different from other sources of business financing, as well as income from investments of venture capital can greatly exceed the volume of investments, but at the same time such financing risks are significant, so it all makes it necessary to build an effective system of venture capital investments in the workplace. In the course of the study also revealed problems of analysis and minimization of risks in the performance of venture financing of innovative enterprises. Defining characteristics analysis and risk assessment of venture financing helps to find ways to minimize and systematization, avoidance and prevention of risks in the performance of venture capital. The study also identified the major areas of improvement analysis of venture capital for management decisions.

  10. Modules for Experiments in Stellar Astrophysics (MESA): Convective Boundaries, Element Diffusion, and Massive Star Explosions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paxton, Bill; Schwab, Josiah; Bauer, Evan B.; Bildsten, Lars; Blinnikov, Sergei; Duffell, Paul; Farmer, R.; Goldberg, Jared A.; Marchant, Pablo; Sorokina, Elena; Thoul, Anne; Townsend, Richard H. D.; Timmes, F. X.

    2018-02-01

    We update the capabilities of the software instrument Modules for Experiments in Stellar Astrophysics (MESA) and enhance its ease of use and availability. Our new approach to locating convective boundaries is consistent with the physics of convection, and yields reliable values of the convective-core mass during both hydrogen- and helium-burning phases. Stars with Msoftware modules for handling floating point exceptions and stellar model optimization, as well as four new software tools - MESA-Web, MESA-Docker, pyMESA, and mesastar.org - to enhance MESA's education and research impact.

  11. SIDEKICK: Genomic data driven analysis and decision-making framework

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yoon Kihoon

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Scientists striving to unlock mysteries within complex biological systems face myriad barriers in effectively integrating available information to enhance their understanding. While experimental techniques and available data sources are rapidly evolving, useful information is dispersed across a variety of sources, and sources of the same information often do not use the same format or nomenclature. To harness these expanding resources, scientists need tools that bridge nomenclature differences and allow them to integrate, organize, and evaluate the quality of information without extensive computation. Results Sidekick, a genomic data driven analysis and decision making framework, is a web-based tool that provides a user-friendly intuitive solution to the problem of information inaccessibility. Sidekick enables scientists without training in computation and data management to pursue answers to research questions like "What are the mechanisms for disease X" or "Does the set of genes associated with disease X also influence other diseases." Sidekick enables the process of combining heterogeneous data, finding and maintaining the most up-to-date data, evaluating data sources, quantifying confidence in results based on evidence, and managing the multi-step research tasks needed to answer these questions. We demonstrate Sidekick's effectiveness by showing how to accomplish a complex published analysis in a fraction of the original time with no computational effort using Sidekick. Conclusions Sidekick is an easy-to-use web-based tool that organizes and facilitates complex genomic research, allowing scientists to explore genomic relationships and formulate hypotheses without computational effort. Possible analysis steps include gene list discovery, gene-pair list discovery, various enrichments for both types of lists, and convenient list manipulation. Further, Sidekick's ability to characterize pairs of genes offers new ways to

  12. Hesitant fuzzy methods for multiple criteria decision analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Zhang, Xiaolu

    2017-01-01

    The book offers a comprehensive introduction to methods for solving multiple criteria decision making and group decision making problems with hesitant fuzzy information. It reports on the authors’ latest research, as well as on others’ research, providing readers with a complete set of decision making tools, such as hesitant fuzzy TOPSIS, hesitant fuzzy TODIM, hesitant fuzzy LINMAP, hesitant fuzzy QUALIFEX, and the deviation modeling approach with heterogeneous fuzzy information. The main focus is on decision making problems in which the criteria values and/or the weights of criteria are not expressed in crisp numbers but are more suitable to be denoted as hesitant fuzzy elements. The largest part of the book is devoted to new methods recently developed by the authors to solve decision making problems in situations where the available information is vague or hesitant. These methods are presented in detail, together with their application to different type of decision-making problems. All in all, the book ...

  13. Analysis of Decisions Made Using the Analytic Hierarchy Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-09-01

    Action FMHR Field Material Handling Robot FGDO Foreign Government Defense Organizations MCDM Multi Criteria Decision Making OR Operations Research RDTE...of professionals. The tool developed, the AHP, is a method of Multi Criteria Decision Making ( MCDM ). The AHP uses the decision- maker’s opinions to...widely used throughout the world in various fields of study for MCDM . A few examples are: deciding how best to reduce the impact of global climate change

  14. Fault trees for decision making in systems analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lambert, H.E.

    1975-01-01

    The application of fault tree analysis (FTA) to system safety and reliability is presented within the framework of system safety analysis. The concepts and techniques involved in manual and automated fault tree construction are described and their differences noted. The theory of mathematical reliability pertinent to FTA is presented with emphasis on engineering applications. An outline of the quantitative reliability techniques of the Reactor Safety Study is given. Concepts of probabilistic importance are presented within the fault tree framework and applied to the areas of system design, diagnosis and simulation. The computer code IMPORTANCE ranks basic events and cut sets according to a sensitivity analysis. A useful feature of the IMPORTANCE code is that it can accept relative failure data as input. The output of the IMPORTANCE code can assist an analyst in finding weaknesses in system design and operation, suggest the most optimal course of system upgrade, and determine the optimal location of sensors within a system. A general simulation model of system failure in terms of fault tree logic is described. The model is intended for efficient diagnosis of the causes of system failure in the event of a system breakdown. It can also be used to assist an operator in making decisions under a time constraint regarding the future course of operations. The model is well suited for computer implementation. New results incorporated in the simulation model include an algorithm to generate repair checklists on the basis of fault tree logic and a one-step-ahead optimization procedure that minimizes the expected time to diagnose system failure. (80 figures, 20 tables)

  15. The analysis of the capacity of the selected measures of decision-making models in companies

    OpenAIRE

    Helena Kościelniak; Beata Skowron-Grabowska; Sylwia Łęgowik-Świącik; Małgorzata Łęgowik-Małolepsza

    2015-01-01

    The paper aims at the analysis of the information capacity of selected instruments of the assessment of decision-making models in the analyzed companies. In the paper there are presented the idea and concepts of decision-making models. There have been discussed the selected instruments of the assessment of decision-making models in enterprises. In the final part of the paper there has been held the quantification of decision- making models in the investigated cement industry companies. To mee...

  16. The value of decision tree analysis in planning anaesthetic care in obstetrics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bamber, J H; Evans, S A

    2016-08-01

    The use of decision tree analysis is discussed in the context of the anaesthetic and obstetric management of a young pregnant woman with joint hypermobility syndrome with a history of insensitivity to local anaesthesia and a previous difficult intubation due to a tongue tumour. The multidisciplinary clinical decision process resulted in the woman being delivered without complication by elective caesarean section under general anaesthesia after an awake fibreoptic intubation. The decision process used is reviewed and compared retrospectively to a decision tree analytical approach. The benefits and limitations of using decision tree analysis are reviewed and its application in obstetric anaesthesia is discussed. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Análise de correspondência como instrumento para descrição do perfil do trabalhador da cultura de tomate de mesa em Goiás The correspondence analysis as instrument to analyze the profile of the worker in the tomato crop in the Goiás state, Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sueli Martins Freitas Alves

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available O cultivo do tomate de mesa em Goiás está estruturado numa proposta tecnológica baseada no uso intensivo de agrotóxicos, o que envolve riscos e danos potenciais à saúde dos trabalhadores. O objetivo deste trabalho foi utilizar a Análise de Correspondência Múltipla (ACM para explorar a perfil do trabalhador da cultura de tomate de mesa quanto ao uso de agrotóxicos. Para isso, foram obtidas informações sobre fatores socioeconômicos e demográficos, percepção de risco, uso de agrotóxicos, uso de equipamento de proteção individual (EPI e morbidade referida, por meio de questionário respondido por 96 trabalhadores da cultura de tomate de mesa, em seis municípios do Estado de Goiás. A Análise de Correspondência Múltipla (ACM possibilitou definir três grupos de trabalhadores. No grupo 1, os que responderam que já se intoxicaram com agrotóxicos e não usam EPI porque dificulta o trabalho ou porque não têm costume. No grupo 2, os que responderam que não se intoxicaram com agrotóxico relataram que usam somente algum tipo de EPI porque os consideram desconfortáveis ou por outros motivos. No grupo 3, os que relataram usar EPI completo e que moram em barracas de lona na lavoura de tomate. Foi possível fazer correspondência entre as modalidades da pesquisa, o que não seria possível com o uso de estatística descritiva.The tomato cropping in the Goiás state is structured under a technological proposal based on the intensive use of pesticides, which involves risks and potential damages to the workers' health. This study aimed to use the Multiple Correspondence Analysis (ACM to explore the worker's profile concerning to the use of pesticides in tomato crop. So, information about the socioeconomic and demographic factors, risk perception, pesticide uses, use of individual protection equipment (EPI and referred morbidity were obtained, by using a questionnaire applied to 96 workers in tomato crop, in six counties at the State

  18. Application of Decision Analysis to Evaluate Alternative Research and Development Investments

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Artelli, Michael

    1998-01-01

    .... In contrast to the current ad hoc approach, decision analysis provides an explicit and easily explained rationale for investment choices, complete and consistent incorporation of multiple objectives...

  19. Application of Decision Analysis to Evaluate Alternative Research and Development Investments

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Artelli, Michael

    1998-01-01

    This thesis is an application of decision analysis techniques to the problem of evaluating competing research and development investments and selecting the best portfolio from among the alternatives...

  20. Decentralisation of Health Services in Fiji: A Decision Space Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jalal Mohammed

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Background Decentralisation aims to bring services closer to the community and has been advocated in the health sector to improve quality, access and equity, and to empower local agencies, increase innovation and efficiency and bring healthcare and decision-making as close as possible to where people live and work. Fiji has attempted two approaches to decentralisation. The current approach reflects a model of deconcentration of outpatient services from the tertiary level hospital to the peripheral health centres in the Suva subdivision. Methods Using a modified decision space approach developed by Bossert, this study measures decision space created in five broad categories (finance, service organisation, human resources, access rules, and governance rules within the decentralised services. Results Fiji’s centrally managed historical-based allocation of financial resources and management of human resources resulted in no decision space for decentralised agents. Narrow decision space was created in the service organisation category where, with limited decision space created over access rules, Fiji has seen greater usage of its decentralised health centres. There remains limited decision space in governance. Conclusion The current wave of decentralisation reveals that, whilst the workload has shifted from the tertiary hospital to the peripheral health centres, it has been accompanied by limited transfer of administrative authority, suggesting that Fiji’s deconcentration reflects the transfer of workload only with decision-making in the five functional areas remaining largely centralised. As such, the benefits of decentralisation for users and providers are likely to be limited.

  1. Structure and analysis of IS decision-making processes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boonstra, A.

    Decisions to invest in information systems (IS) are made by many organisations on a very regular basis. Such decisions can vary from quickly identifying the problem, screening options and choosing a solution in a very straightforward way, to very extensive and repeated search, screen, design and

  2. Health care input constraints and cost effectiveness analysis decision rules

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    P.H.M. Van Baal (Pieter); Morton, A. (Alec); J.L. Severens (Hans)

    2018-01-01

    textabstractResults of cost effectiveness analyses (CEA) studies are most useful for decision makers if they face only one constraint: the health care budget. However, in practice, decision makers wishing to use the results of CEA studies may face multiple resource constraints relating to, for

  3. an analysis of perceived prominent decision making areas in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    p2333147

    qualitative and quantitative techniques associated with phenomenological studies. Overall indications are that a clear understanding exists that different challenges (of achieving perceived optimum efficiency) attract different sets of decisions. The array of decision making areas subjectively associated with the achievement ...

  4. Decentralisation of Health Services in Fiji: A Decision Space Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohammed, Jalal; North, Nicola; Ashton, Toni

    2015-11-15

    Decentralisation aims to bring services closer to the community and has been advocated in the health sector to improve quality, access and equity, and to empower local agencies, increase innovation and efficiency and bring healthcare and decision-making as close as possible to where people live and work. Fiji has attempted two approaches to decentralisation. The current approach reflects a model of deconcentration of outpatient services from the tertiary level hospital to the peripheral health centres in the Suva subdivision. Using a modified decision space approach developed by Bossert, this study measures decision space created in five broad categories (finance, service organisation, human resources, access rules, and governance rules) within the decentralised services. Fiji's centrally managed historical-based allocation of financial resources and management of human resources resulted in no decision space for decentralised agents. Narrow decision space was created in the service organisation category where, with limited decision space created over access rules, Fiji has seen greater usage of its decentralised health centres. There remains limited decision space in governance. The current wave of decentralisation reveals that, whilst the workload has shifted from the tertiary hospital to the peripheral health centres, it has been accompanied by limited transfer of administrative authority, suggesting that Fiji's deconcentration reflects the transfer of workload only with decision-making in the five functional areas remaining largely centralised. As such, the benefits of decentralisation for users and providers are likely to be limited. © 2016 by Kerman University of Medical Sciences.

  5. Decision-theoretic analysis of forensic sampling criteria using bayesian decision networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biedermann, A; Bozza, S; Garbolino, P; Taroni, F

    2012-11-30

    Sampling issues represent a topic of ongoing interest to the forensic science community essentially because of their crucial role in laboratory planning and working protocols. For this purpose, forensic literature described thorough (bayesian) probabilistic sampling approaches. These are now widely implemented in practice. They allow, for instance, to obtain probability statements that parameters of interest (e.g., the proportion of a seizure of items that present particular features, such as an illegal substance) satisfy particular criteria (e.g., a threshold or an otherwise limiting value). Currently, there are many approaches that allow one to derive probability statements relating to a population proportion, but questions on how a forensic decision maker--typically a client of a forensic examination or a scientist acting on behalf of a client--ought actually to decide about a proportion or a sample size, remained largely unexplored to date. The research presented here intends to address methodology from decision theory that may help to cope usefully with the wide range of sampling issues typically encountered in forensic science applications. The procedures explored in this paper enable scientists to address a variety of concepts such as the (net) value of sample information, the (expected) value of sample information or the (expected) decision loss. All of these aspects directly relate to questions that are regularly encountered in casework. Besides probability theory and bayesian inference, the proposed approach requires some additional elements from decision theory that may increase the efforts needed for practical implementation. In view of this challenge, the present paper will emphasise the merits of graphical modelling concepts, such as decision trees and bayesian decision networks. These can support forensic scientists in applying the methodology in practice. How this may be achieved is illustrated with several examples. The graphical devices invoked

  6. Multi-Criteria Decision Making for a Spatial Decision Support System on the Analysis of Changing Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olyazadeh, Roya; van Westen, Cees; Bakker, Wim H.; Aye, Zar Chi; Jaboyedoff, Michel; Derron, Marc-Henri

    2014-05-01

    Natural hazard risk management requires decision making in several stages. Decision making on alternatives for risk reduction planning starts with an intelligence phase for recognition of the decision problems and identifying the objectives. Development of the alternatives and assigning the variable by decision makers to each alternative are employed to the design phase. Final phase evaluates the optimal choice by comparing the alternatives, defining indicators, assigning a weight to each and ranking them. This process is referred to as Multi-Criteria Decision Making analysis (MCDM), Multi-Criteria Evaluation (MCE) or Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA). In the framework of the ongoing 7th Framework Program "CHANGES" (2011-2014, Grant Agreement No. 263953) of the European Commission, a Spatial Decision Support System is under development, that has the aim to analyse changes in hydro-meteorological risk and provide support to selecting the best risk reduction alternative. This paper describes the module for Multi-Criteria Decision Making analysis (MCDM) that incorporates monetary and non-monetary criteria in the analysis of the optimal alternative. The MCDM module consists of several components. The first step is to define criteria (or Indicators) which are subdivided into disadvantages (criteria that indicate the difficulty for implementing the risk reduction strategy, also referred to as Costs) and advantages (criteria that indicate the favorability, also referred to as benefits). In the next step the stakeholders can use the developed web-based tool for prioritizing criteria and decision matrix. Public participation plays a role in decision making and this is also planned through the use of a mobile web-version where the general local public can indicate their agreement on the proposed alternatives. The application is being tested through a case study related to risk reduction of a mountainous valley in the Alps affected by flooding. Four alternatives are evaluated in

  7. Risk Analysis Based Business Rule Enforcement for Intelligent Decision Support

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vasilecas, Olegas; Smaizys, Aidas; Brazinskas, Ramunas

    Intelligent information systems are acting by structured rules and do not deal with possible impact on the business environment or future consequences. That is the main reason why automated decisions based on such rules cannot take responsibility and requires involvement or approval of dedicated business people. This limits decision automation possibilities in information systems. However, business rules describe business policy and represent business logics. This can be used in intelligent information systems, together with risk assessment model to simulate real business environment and evaluate possible impact of automated decisions, to support intelligent decision automation. The chapter proposes risk and business rule model integration to provide full intelligent decision automation model used for business rule enforcement and implementation into intelligent software systems of information systems.

  8. Health care input constraints and cost effectiveness analysis decision rules.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Baal, Pieter; Morton, Alec; Severens, Johan L

    2018-03-01

    Results of cost effectiveness analyses (CEA) studies are most useful for decision makers if they face only one constraint: the health care budget. However, in practice, decision makers wishing to use the results of CEA studies may face multiple resource constraints relating to, for instance, constraints in health care inputs such as a shortage of skilled labour. The presence of multiple resource constraints influences the decision rules of CEA and limits the usefulness of traditional CEA studies for decision makers. The goal of this paper is to illustrate how results of CEA can be interpreted and used in case a decision maker faces a health care input constraint. We set up a theoretical model describing the optimal allocation of the health care budget in the presence of a health care input constraint. Insights derived from that model were used to analyse a stylized example based on a decision about a surgical robot as well as a published cost effectiveness study on eye care services in Zambia. Our theoretical model shows that applying default decision rules in the presence of a health care input constraint leads to suboptimal decisions but that there are ways of preserving the traditional decision rules of CEA by reweighing different cost categories. The examples illustrate how such adjustments can be made, and makes clear that optimal decisions depend crucially on such adjustments. We conclude that it is possible to use the results of cost effectiveness studies in the presence of health care input constraints if results are properly adjusted. Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  9. Identifying a preservation zone using multicriteria decision analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Farashi, A.; Naderi, M.; Parvian, N.

    2016-07-01

    Zoning of a protected area is an approach to partition landscape into various land use units. The management of these landscape units can reduce conflicts caused by human activities. Tandoreh National Park is one of the most biologically diverse, protected areas in Iran. Although the area is generally designed to protect biodiversity, there are many conflicts between biodiversity conservation and human activities. For instance, the area is highly controversial and has been considered as an impediment to local economic development, such as tourism, grazing, road construction, and cultivation. In order to reduce human conflicts with biodiversity conservation in Tandoreh National Park, safe zones need to be established and human activities need to be moved out of the zones. In this study we used a systematic methodology to integrate a participatory process with Geographic Information Systems (GIS) using a multi–criteria decision analysis (MCDA) technique to guide a zoning scheme for the Tandoreh National Park, Iran. Our results show that the northern and eastern parts of the Tandoreh National Park that were close to rural areas and farmlands returned less desirability for selection as a preservation area. Rocky Mountains were the most important and most destructed areas and abandoned plains were the least important criteria for preservation in the area. Furthermore, the results reveal that the land properties were considered to be important for protection based on the obtaine. (Author)

  10. Microseismic Monitoring Design Optimization Based on Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kovaleva, Y.; Tamimi, N.; Ostadhassan, M.

    2017-12-01

    Borehole microseismic monitoring of hydraulic fracture treatments of unconventional reservoirs is a widely used method in the oil and gas industry. Sometimes, the quality of the acquired microseismic data is poor. One of the reasons for poor data quality is poor survey design. We attempt to provide a comprehensive and thorough workflow, using multiple criteria decision analysis (MCDA), to optimize planning micriseismic monitoring. So far, microseismic monitoring has been used extensively as a powerful tool for determining fracture parameters that affect the influx of formation fluids into the wellbore. The factors that affect the quality of microseismic data and their final results include average distance between microseismic events and receivers, complexity of the recorded wavefield, signal-to-noise ratio, data aperture, etc. These criteria often conflict with each other. In a typical microseismic monitoring, those factors should be considered to choose the best monitoring well(s), optimum number of required geophones, and their depth. We use MDCA to address these design challenges and develop a method that offers an optimized design out of all possible combinations to produce the best data acquisition results. We believe that this will be the first research to include the above-mentioned factors in a 3D model. Such a tool would assist companies and practicing engineers in choosing the best design parameters for future microseismic projects.

  11. Corporate investment decisions and economic analysis. Exercises and case studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Babusiaux, D.; Pierru, A.

    2005-01-01

    Economic analysis of industrial projects is based on methods which are often simple, sometimes complex, yet always to be applied with rigor. The aim of this book is to help readers assimilate the concepts and methods for investment decision and project evaluation. It offers a wide range of exercises, problems and case studies taken from business, which are the fruit of many years of teaching, consulting and research. Some are direct application of basics, others require a higher degree of reflection for more complex applications. Our approach borrows elements from micro economics, engineering economics and finance theory. While many examples relate to the energy sector, particularly oil and gas, the problems addressed are of broader scope and so are fully applicable to other industry sectors. This book is ideally suited to both professionals and students who seek to master capital budgeting techniques. A review of essential points is proposed at the beginning of each chapter and key methodological elements are recalled in the solutions. (authors)

  12. Identifying a preservation zone using multi–criteria decision analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Farashi, A.

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Zoning of a protected area is an approach to partition landscape into various land use units. The management of these landscape units can reduce conflicts caused by human activities. Tandoreh National Park is one of the most biologically diverse, protected areas in Iran. Although the area is generally designed to protect biodiversity, there are many conflicts between biodiversity conservation and human activities. For instance, the area is highly controversial and has been considered as an impediment to local economic development, such as tourism, grazing, road construction, and cultivation. In order to reduce human conflicts with biodiversity conservation in Tandoreh National Park, safe zones need to be established and human activities need to be moved out of the zones. In this study we used a systematic methodology to integrate a participatory process with Geographic Information Systems (GIS using a multi–criteria decision analysis (MCDA technique to guide a zoning scheme for the Tandoreh National Park, Iran. Our results show that the northern and eastern parts of the Tandoreh National Park that were close to rural areas and farmlands returned less desirability for selection as a preservation area. Rocky Mountains were the most important and most destructed areas and abandoned plains were the least important criteria for preservation in the area. Furthermore, the results reveal that the land properties were considered to be important for protection based on the obtaine

  13. Selection of Representative Models for Decision Analysis Under Uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meira, Luis A. A.; Coelho, Guilherme P.; Santos, Antonio Alberto S.; Schiozer, Denis J.

    2016-03-01

    The decision-making process in oil fields includes a step of risk analysis associated with the uncertainties present in the variables of the problem. Such uncertainties lead to hundreds, even thousands, of possible scenarios that are supposed to be analyzed so an effective production strategy can be selected. Given this high number of scenarios, a technique to reduce this set to a smaller, feasible subset of representative scenarios is imperative. The selected scenarios must be representative of the original set and also free of optimistic and pessimistic bias. This paper is devoted to propose an assisted methodology to identify representative models in oil fields. To do so, first a mathematical function was developed to model the representativeness of a subset of models with respect to the full set that characterizes the problem. Then, an optimization tool was implemented to identify the representative models of any problem, considering not only the cross-plots of the main output variables, but also the risk curves and the probability distribution of the attribute-levels of the problem. The proposed technique was applied to two benchmark cases and the results, evaluated by experts in the field, indicate that the obtained solutions are richer than those identified by previously adopted manual approaches. The program bytecode is available under request.

  14. Multiple criteria decision analysis for health technology assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thokala, Praveen; Duenas, Alejandra

    2012-12-01

    Multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) has been suggested by some researchers as a method to capture the benefits beyond quality adjusted life-years in a transparent and consistent manner. The objectives of this article were to analyze the possible application of MCDA approaches in health technology assessment and to describe their relative advantages and disadvantages. This article begins with an introduction to the most common types of MCDA models and a critical review of state-of-the-art methods for incorporating multiple criteria in health technology assessment. An overview of MCDA is provided and is compared against the current UK National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence health technology appraisal process. A generic MCDA modeling approach is described, and the different MCDA modeling approaches are applied to a hypothetical case study. A comparison of the different MCDA approaches is provided, and the generic issues that need consideration before the application of MCDA in health technology assessment are examined. There are general practical issues that might arise from using an MCDA approach, and it is suggested that appropriate care be taken to ensure the success of MCDA techniques in the appraisal process. Copyright © 2012 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Multi criteria decision analysis on a waste repository in Mol

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carle, B.

    2005-01-01

    In Belgium, the management of radioactive waste is taken care of by ONDRAF/NIRAS, the Belgian Agency for Radioactive Waste and Enriched Fissile Materials. Local partnerships with stakeholders from municipalities in existing nuclear zones were setup to facilitate the dialogue between the repository designers and the local community. Since the establishment of the partnership in Mol, MONA in February 2000, all aspects of a possible near-surface or a deep geological repository are discussed in 4 working groups by around 50 volunteer members. The outcome of the discussions in the partnership can be a shared project, supported by both local stakeholders and ONDRAF/NIRAS, in which the specifications and the conditions needed for establishing a repository in Mol are elaborated. MONA asked the Decision Strategy Research Department of SCK-CEN to organise a Multi Criteria Analysis (MCA) in the context of the deciding between a surface and a deep repository for low level radioactive waste. The objective of the multi criteria analysis is to support a number of representatives of the various working groups within MONA in their selection between two acceptable options for a repository of low level radioactive waste on the territory of Mol. The options are the surface repository developed by the working groups of MONA, and a deep repository in the clay layers underneath the nuclear site of Mol. This study should facilitate the selection between both options, or in case this appears to be difficult, at least to get a well-structured overview of all factors (criteria) of importance to the judgement, and to get insight into the degree in which the various criteria contribute to the selection

  16. Design and Analysis of Decision Rules via Dynamic Programming

    KAUST Repository

    Amin, Talha M.

    2017-04-24

    The areas of machine learning, data mining, and knowledge representation have many different formats used to represent information. Decision rules, amongst these formats, are the most expressive and easily-understood by humans. In this thesis, we use dynamic programming to design decision rules and analyze them. The use of dynamic programming allows us to work with decision rules in ways that were previously only possible for brute force methods. Our algorithms allow us to describe the set of all rules for a given decision table. Further, we can perform multi-stage optimization by repeatedly reducing this set to only contain rules that are optimal with respect to selected criteria. One way that we apply this study is to generate small systems with short rules by simulating a greedy algorithm for the set cover problem. We also compare maximum path lengths (depth) of deterministic and non-deterministic decision trees (a non-deterministic decision tree is effectively a complete system of decision rules) with regards to Boolean functions. Another area of advancement is the presentation of algorithms for constructing Pareto optimal points for rules and rule systems. This allows us to study the existence of “totally optimal” decision rules (rules that are simultaneously optimal with regards to multiple criteria). We also utilize Pareto optimal points to compare and rate greedy heuristics with regards to two criteria at once. Another application of Pareto optimal points is the study of trade-offs between cost and uncertainty which allows us to find reasonable systems of decision rules that strike a balance between length and accuracy.

  17. Use of probabilistic methods for analysis of cost and duration uncertainties in a decision analysis framework

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boak, D.M.; Painton, L.

    1995-01-01

    Probabilistic forecasting techniques have been used in many risk assessment and performance assessment applications on radioactive waste disposal projects such as Yucca Mountain and the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP). Probabilistic techniques such as Monte Carlo and Latin Hypercube sampling methods are routinely used to treat uncertainties in physical parameters important in simulating radionuclide transport in a coupled geohydrologic system and assessing the ability of that system to comply with regulatory release limits. However, the use of probabilistic techniques in the treatment of uncertainties in the cost and duration of programmatic alternatives on risk and performance assessment projects is less common. Where significant uncertainties exist and where programmatic decisions must be made despite existing uncertainties, probabilistic techniques may yield important insights into decision options, especially when used in a decision analysis framework and when properly balanced with deterministic analyses. For relatively simple evaluations, these types of probabilistic evaluations can be made using personal computer-based software

  18. The appropriateness of Multicriteria Analysis in environmental decision-making problems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balasubramaniam, A; Voulvoulis, N

    2005-09-01

    Environmental decision-making occurs in numerous environmental sectors and covers a diverse range of problems. Of the various decision tools available not all of them may be appropriate for any single decision problem, and any particular decision-aid may not be applicable in all decision problems. This article reviews applications of MCA, and considers the appropriateness of Multicriteria Analysis (MCA) in environmental decision-making problems. Due to natural and decision environments being multidimensional, environmental decision-making is characterized by complexity. Consequently MCA has commonly been used in this area. In Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) the multiple dimensions of the impacts evaluated have been easily represented in MCA as multiple criteria. Waste management and water resource planning problems involving public participation have been facilitated by MCA, through the structuring and articulation of the public's values. MCA has also been applied in water quality problems, allowing the incorporation of incommensurable criteria into evaluations. The appropriateness of MCA for environmental decision problems can be viewed in the context of a typical decision-making process, making it easier to identify the contribution MCA can make at various decision-making stages. MCA can be particularly appropriate when the decision-making context is characterized by multiple objectives and multiple criteria, incommensurable criteria, mixed data and the need for ease of use, and the analysis context is characterized by multiple participants.

  19. An empirical analysis of the corporate call decision

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carlson, M.D.

    1998-01-01

    An economic study of the the behaviour of financial managers of utility companies was presented. The study examined whether or not an option pricing based model of the call decision does a better job of explaining callable preferred share prices and call decisions compared to other models. In this study, the Rust (1987) empirical technique was extended to include the use of information from preferred share prices in addition to the call decisions. Reasonable estimates were obtained from data of shares of the Pacific Gas and Electric Company (PGE) for the transaction costs associated with a call. It was concluded that the managers of the PGE clearly take into account the value of the option to delay the call when making their call decisions

  20. Informatics Systems of Decision Support and Analysis of Their Security

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tadeusz Galanc

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available A new approach to security issues associated with the use of teleinformatics systems in the decision-making process has been presented. There is a discussion of the relationship between the security of informatics systems and the security of the decision-making process in which they are used, in particular regarding the threats resulting from the use of informatics systems and modern teleinformatics technologies. In addition, an overview of the dangers that could have a significant impact on appropriate decision-making has been performed. The paper points out the possible ways to ensure security de-pending on the type of threats encountered. In particular, threats particularly linked with the security of informatics systems supporting decision-making have been identified. (original abstract

  1. Decisions, Decisions!

    Science.gov (United States)

    McFadden, F. Lee

    1975-01-01

    A self-instructional program on decision making was used in conjunction with workshops to introduce the staff of an instructional materials company to the decision tree process as they used it to study their own film production problem. (Author/MS)

  2. Preliminary hydrogeological evaluation of geological units from the Mesa de los Santos, Santander

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Diaz, Eliana Jimena; Contreras, Nathalia Maria; Pinto, Jorge Eduardo; Velandia, Francisco; Morales, Carlos Julio; Hincapie, Gloria

    2009-01-01

    This paper present a preliminary hydrogeological evaluation of La Mesa de Los Santos' lithostratigraphic formations, based on the geological mapping, stratigraphy and inventory of water points. All this is supplemented with the analysis of primary porosity by means of the petrographic study and the secondary porosity related statistically with the quantity of fractures of each formation, as well as opening, interconnection and dip. It is made an approach to hydrogeological potential of the geologic outcropping formations in La Mesa de Los Santos, Department of Santander, from the stratigraphic and petrographic analysis and the structural features of these formations. The Upper Member of Los Santos Formation presents the highest potential because of rock's fracturing, continued by the Lower Member with low primary porosity and half fracturing. Silgara Formation, Granito de Pescadero, Jordan Formation and some sections of the sandy levels of the Rosablanca Formation presents a lowest potential due to its low porosity and low grade of fracturing. Low permeability is presented in the Middle Member of the Los Santos Formation, Paja and Tablazo formations, as well as in sectors of the fore mentioned formations and in the Quaternary deposits.

  3. PENGARUH SUHU DAN LAMA PROSES SULFONASI DALAM PROSES PRODUKSI METHYL ESTER SULFONIC ACID (MESA MENGGUNAKAN SINGLE TUBE FALLING FILM REACTOR (STFR

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Siti Mujdalipah

    2013-03-01

    /cm menjadi 3 dyne/cm.Kata kunci: EOR, MESA, olein sawit, sulfonasi, STFR ABSTRACT Methyl Ester Sulfonic Acid (MESA is an intermediate product of Methyl Etser Sulfonate (MES. MES has manyapplications for personal care products, washing and cleaning products, and Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR. MESA production using SO3 in Single Tube Falling Film Reactor (STFR is a common practice. This study was aimed to getthe best condition of methyl esters (ME sulfonation process from palm olein using SO3 gas in STFR. The study wasdone in three stages which were production activities, analysis, and data processing. Research activities consisted ofproduction process of methyl esters from palm olein and studying of temperature and sulfonation time effects towardME sulfonation process using STFR. Analysis stage include analysis of physico chemical properties of palm olein,analysis of physico chemical properties of methyl esters, and analysis of physico chemical properties of MESA. Tostudy the effect of temperature and sulfonation time toward ME sulfonation process, temperatures of 70, 90, and 110

  4. Decision support in Down’s syndrome screening using multi-criteria decision analysis: a pilot study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna Erenbourg

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Background: the aim of the study was to develop and pilot use of a decision support system (DSS to help women choose the option that best respects their personal values among the different screening/diagnostic tests for Down’s syndrome.Methods: value-bearing considerations were elicited through qualitative interviews. Ten women post-birth and ten health professionals working in the Obstetric Department at UC LH were interviewed. Performance data for the various possible screening strategies on these attributes were entered into a Multi-criteria Decision Analytic model using the Annalisa implementation. Participants piloted the DSS, entering necessary weights for the attributes and observing the resulting scores. Main outcome measures were DSS clarity, usefulness and feasibility in a clinical setting.Results: most participants found the DSS valuable because it stimulated women to seek information about testing and helped them focus on the main issues affecting their decisions. Annalisa proved a user-friendly DSS that helps women understand the issues around Down’s screening and diagnosis. There was unanimity that its use should be complementary to health professionals’ consultation. Most favoured offering it before consultation so that women could be better informed about options before attending the antenatal booking.Conclusions: the overall positive comments confirm that a user-friendly decision analysis-based support system can be a valuable instrument at supporting health decisions in this area. Further research is needed to assess whether the intention to make an informed choice is always best addressed by a decision support system, or these remain useful tools only to women more inclined to seek information anyhow.

  5. Hit-And-Run enables efficient weight generation for simulation-based multiple criteria decision analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tervonen, Tommi; van Valkenhoef, Gert; Basturk, Nalan; Postmus, Douwe

    2013-01-01

    Models for Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) often separate per-criterion attractiveness evaluation from weighted aggregation of these evaluations across the different criteria. In simulation-based MCDA methods, such as Stochastic Multicriteria Acceptability Analysis, uncertainty in the

  6. Understanding antibiotic decision making in surgery-a qualitative analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charani, E; Tarrant, C; Moorthy, K; Sevdalis, N; Brennan, L; Holmes, A H

    2017-10-01

    To investigate the characteristics and culture of antibiotic decision making in the surgical specialty. A qualitative study including ethnographic observation and face-to-face interviews with participants from six surgical teams at a teaching hospital in London was conducted. Over a 3-month period: (a) 30 ward rounds (WRs) (100 h) were observed, (b) face-to-face follow-up interviews took place with 13 key informants, (c) multidisciplinary meetings on the management of surgical patients and daily practice on wards were observed. Applying these methods provided rich data for characterizing the antibiotic decision making in surgery and enabled cross-validation and triangulation of the findings. Data from the interview transcripts and the observational notes were coded and analysed iteratively until saturation was reached. The surgical team is in a state of constant flux with individuals having to adjust to the context in which they work. The demands placed on the team to be in the operating room, and to address the surgical needs of the patient mean that the responsibility for antibiotic decision making is uncoordinated and diffuse. Antibiotic decision making is considered by surgeons as a secondary task, commonly delegated to junior members of their team and occurs in the context of disjointed communication. There is lack of clarity around medical decision making for treating infections in surgical patients. The result is sub-optimal and uncoordinated antimicrobial management. Developing the role of a perioperative clinician may help to improve patient-level outcomes and optimize decision making. Copyright © 2017 European Society of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Mesas de dinero: generalidades y experiencia en Colombia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Johnny Alvarez Jaramillo

    1989-04-01

    Full Text Available RESUMEN   Las necesidades de financiamiento de corto plazo, ha determinado el aguzamiento  de la imaginación para garantizar los recursos. Generalmente, las prácticas financieras en Colombia se extienden sin ningún control institucional; hasta que desafortunadamente, las prácticas desleales  o fraudulentas, llevan al estado a intervenir y reglamentar. Las llamadas MESAS DE DINERO, se han generalizado en nuestro medio en la medida en que proveen recursos financieros de corto plazo, difíciles de conseguir por los canales tradicionales. Los recientes escándalos del sector bursátil y anteriormente, la crisis bancaria, desaceleraron el crecimiento del mercado financiero extrainstitucional, pero no lo han acabado  del todo.El presente artículo, pretende informar brevemente sobre las experiencias de las llamadas  MESAS DE DINERO, su práctica y desarrollo.

  8. An analysis of the buy-vs-lease decision.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berlin, Jonathan W; Lexa, Frank J

    2006-02-01

    This article presents a financial model to analyze the buy-vs-lease decision. The model is constructed from the perspective of a lessee with an operating lease and uses the concept of net present value, which calculates the current value of predicted cash flows in the future. Predicted cash flows of an operating lease compared with buying are presented in the model, as is the after-tax borrowing rate, the appropriate discount rate used in a model of this type. The article also discusses nonfinancial factors that may influence the buy-vs-lease decision, including the need for flexibility in working capital and the anticipated technological obsolescence of equipment.

  9. Multicriteria decision analysis and core values for enhancing vaccine-related decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barocchi, Michèle A; Black, Steve; Rappuoli, Rino

    2016-06-29

    Vaccines have the potential to transform the health of all individuals and to reduce the health inequality between rich and poor countries. However, to achieve these goals, it is no longer sufficient to prioritize vaccine development using cost-effectiveness as the sole indicator. During a symposium entitled "Mission Grand Convergence-The Role of Vaccines," held in Siena, Italy, in July 2015, key stakeholders agreed that the prioritization of vaccine development and deployment must use multicriteria decision-making based on the following core concepts: (i) mortality and severity of the disease, (ii) vaccine safety considerations, and (iii) economic evaluation that captures the full benefits of vaccination. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

  10. Congreso www.derechotics.com 2010 Ana Aba, Mesa 3

    OpenAIRE

    Cotino Hueso, Lorenzo

    2010-01-01

    Garantías de la privacidad en las redes sociales, por Ana Aba Catoira, Profesora titular de Derecho constitucional, U. de A Coruña.Mesa 3: Privacidad y la propiedad intelectual frente a la libertad de expresión e información en la redCongreso www.derechotics.com Valencia, 14-15 octubre 2010 Libertades informativas en internet: ejercicio, amenazas y garantías, Lorenzo Cotino (org.)

  11. [Analysis of the characteristics of the older adults with depression using data mining decision tree analysis].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Myonghwa; Choi, Sora; Shin, A Mi; Koo, Chul Hoi

    2013-02-01

    The purpose of this study was to develop a prediction model for the characteristics of older adults with depression using the decision tree method. A large dataset from the 2008 Korean Elderly Survey was used and data of 14,970 elderly people were analyzed. Target variable was depression and 53 input variables were general characteristics, family & social relationship, economic status, health status, health behavior, functional status, leisure & social activity, quality of life, and living environment. Data were analyzed by decision tree analysis, a data mining technique using SPSS Window 19.0 and Clementine 12.0 programs. The decision trees were classified into five different rules to define the characteristics of older adults with depression. Classification & Regression Tree (C&RT) showed the best prediction with an accuracy of 80.81% among data mining models. Factors in the rules were life satisfaction, nutritional status, daily activity difficulty due to pain, functional limitation for basic or instrumental daily activities, number of chronic diseases and daily activity difficulty due to disease. The different rules classified by the decision tree model in this study should contribute as baseline data for discovering informative knowledge and developing interventions tailored to these individual characteristics.

  12. Análise exploratória de adoçantes de mesa via espectroscopia no infravermelho (FTIR e análise por componentes principais (ACP Exploratory analysis of commercial sweeteners by infrared spectroscopy (FTIR and principal component analysis (PCA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adriana Tozetto

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available Nos últimos vinte anos, o consumo de alimentos diet e light tem aumentado sistematicamente, o que tem propiciado o constante desenvolvimento de produtos desse gênero. Grande ênfase tem sido dada àqueles produtos que substituem sacarose por edulcorantes de baixos conteúdos calóricos ou não calóricos. Seguindo esta tendência, adoçantes de mesa têm sido desenvolvidos variando-se amplamente o veículo e o tipo de edulcorante empregado. Neste trabalho, a análise de componentes principais associada à espectroscopia na região do infravermelho médio foi utilizada com sucesso para diferenciar os veículos empregados na produção destes adoçantes, sendo que esta metodologia quimiométrica reduziu o espaço dimensional para dois fatores, explicando cerca de 82-% da variância total dos dados. As variáveis responsáveis por esta discriminação estão localizadas na região da impressão digital do espectro de infravermelho (752,2 a 1284,5 cm-1. A análise exploratória mostrou-se útil para a visualização destes dados, gerando informações semiquantitativas para os adoçantes constituídos por lactose/aspartame, observações que seriam dificilmente visualizadas sem o recurso quimiométrico aplicado.In the last twenty years, the consumption of diet and light foods has grown steadily, leading to the constant development of such products. Much emphasis has been placed on products that replace sucrose with sweeteners of low or zero calorie content. The development of new commercial sweeteners illustrates this tendency. In this work, principal component analysis and infrared spectroscopy were used to successfully differentiate the vehicles (mediums employed in the production of sweeteners. This chemometric methodology reduced the dimensional space to two factors, accounting for 82% of the total variance of the data. The variables responsible for this discrimination were localized in the fingerprint region of the infrared spectrum (752.2 to

  13. A Survey of Enterprise Architecture Analysis Using Multi Criteria Decision Making Models (MCDM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zia, Mehmooda Jabeen; Azam, Farooque; Allauddin, Maria

    System design becomes really important for software production due to continuous increase in size and complexity of software systems. It is a complex design activity to build architecture for the systems like large enterprises. Thus it is a critical issue to select the correct architecture in software engineering domain. Moreover, in enterprise architecture selection different goals and objectives must be taken into consideration as it is a multi-criteria decision making problem. Generally this field of enterprise architecture analysis has progressed from the application of linear weighting, through integer programming and linear programming to multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) models. In this paper we survey two multi-criteria decision making models (AHP, ANP) to determine that to what extent they have been used in making powerful decisions in complex enterprise architecture analysis. We have found that by using ANP model, decision makers of an enterprise can make more precise and suitable decisions in selection of enterprise architecture styles.

  14. An empirical analysis of capital structure decisions in Dutch firms

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Jong, A.

    1999-01-01

    This Ph.D. thesis investigates capital structure decisions in Dutch firms. Firms are faced with the choice from a variety of sources of financing for the funding of their activities. These choices determine the firms' capital structures. Building on the well known theorems of Modigliani and Miller,

  15. Description-based and experience-based decisions: individual analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrey Kudryavtsev

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available We analyze behavior in two basic classes of decision tasks: description-based and experience-based. In particular, we compare the prediction power of a number of decision learning models in both kinds of tasks. Unlike most previous studies, we focus on individual, rather than aggregate, behavioral characteristics. We carry out an experiment involving a battery of both description- and experience-based choices between two mixed binary prospects made by each of the participants, and employ a number of formal models for explaining and predicting participants' choices: Prospect theory (PT (Kahneman and Tversky, 1979; Expectancy-Valence model (EVL (Busemeyer and Stout, 2002; and three combinations of these well-established models. We document that the PT and the EVL models are best for predicting people's decisions in description- and experience-based tasks, respectively, which is not surprising as these two models are designed specially for these kinds of tasks. Furthermore, we find that models involving linear weighting of gains and losses perform better in both kinds of tasks, from the point of view of generalizability and individual parameter consistency. We therefore, conclude that, overall, when both prospects are mixed, the assumption of diminishing sensitivity does not improve models' prediction power for individual decision-makers. Finally, for some of the models' parameters, we document consistency at the individual level between description- and experience-based tasks.

  16. New approach to decision making by multiple criteria analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vanicek Tomas

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Many decision processes in technical and economical sciences require multiple criteria decision making. The most widely applied methods for multiple criteria evaluation of alternatives are based on the evaluation of alternatives in terms of an additive preference function. All of them require the estimation of weights of usually conflicting criteria. There are several methods how to find the weights of the criteria and how to find the evaluation of each solution in each criterion. The decision process based on simple weighted sum of values may not be the best approach in all situations. This paper contains a new approach of the evaluation of measured value set by different mathematical operators than the usually used multiple criteria evaluation methods. The approach was applied in a case study for multiple criteria evaluation. Generally, this new decision-support tool can help in various situations where different types of effects caused by a construction or reconstruction can occur. This is a very frequent situation in dealing with building defects, too.

  17. The Role of Research and Analysis in Resource Allocation Decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lea, Dennis; Polster, Patty Poppe

    2011-01-01

    In a time of diminishing resources and increased accountability, it is important for school leaders to make the most of every dollar they spend. One approach to ensuring responsible resource allocation is to closely examine the organizational culture surrounding decision making and provide a structure and process to incorporate research and data…

  18. Quantitative analysis of strategic and tactical purchasing decisions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Heijboer, G.J.

    2003-01-01

    Purchasing management is a relatively new scientific research field, partly due to the fact that purchasing has only recently been recognized as a factor of strategic importance to an organization. In this thesis, the author focuses on a selection of strategic and tactical purchasing decision

  19. Doubly Bayesian Analysis of Confidence in Perceptual Decision-Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bahrami, Bahador; Latham, Peter E.

    2015-01-01

    Humans stand out from other animals in that they are able to explicitly report on the reliability of their internal operations. This ability, which is known as metacognition, is typically studied by asking people to report their confidence in the correctness of some decision. However, the computations underlying confidence reports remain unclear. In this paper, we present a fully Bayesian method for directly comparing models of confidence. Using a visual two-interval forced-choice task, we tested whether confidence reports reflect heuristic computations (e.g. the magnitude of sensory data) or Bayes optimal ones (i.e. how likely a decision is to be correct given the sensory data). In a standard design in which subjects were first asked to make a decision, and only then gave their confidence, subjects were mostly Bayes optimal. In contrast, in a less-commonly used design in which subjects indicated their confidence and decision simultaneously, they were roughly equally likely to use the Bayes optimal strategy or to use a heuristic but suboptimal strategy. Our results suggest that, while people’s confidence reports can reflect Bayes optimal computations, even a small unusual twist or additional element of complexity can prevent optimality. PMID:26517475

  20. Climate Modeling and Analysis with Decision Makers in Mind

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, A. D.; Jagannathan, K.; Calvin, K. V.; Lamarque, J. F.; Ullrich, P. A.

    2016-12-01

    There is a growing need for information about future climate conditions to support adaptation planning across a wide range of sectors and stakeholder communities. However, our principal tools for understanding future climate - global Earth system models - were not developed with these user needs in mind, nor have we developed transparent methods for evaluating and communicating the credibility of various climate information products with respect to the climate characteristics that matter most to decision-makers. Several recent community engagements have identified a need for "co-production" of knowledge among stakeholders and scientists. Here we highlight some of the barriers to communication and collaboration that must be overcome to improve the dialogue among researchers and climate adaptation practitioners in a meaningful way. Solutions to this challenge are two-fold: 1) new institutional arrangements and collaborative mechanisms designed to improve coordination and understanding among communities, and 2) a research agenda that explicitly incorporates stakeholder needs into model evaluation, development, and experimental design. We contrast the information content in global-scale model evaluation exercises with that required for in specific decision contexts, such as long-term agricultural management decisions. Finally, we present a vision for advancing the science of model evaluation in the context of predicting decision-relevant hydroclimate regime shifts in North America.

  1. An analysis of perceived prominent decision making areas in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The development of the highly individualistic commercial springbuck (Antidorcas marsupialis) production systems and the resulting growth in the commercial value of the springbuck has opened a new realm of game management decision making. These relatively undomesticated production systems demand sophisticated ...

  2. Agricultural lending decision: a tobit regression analysis | Olagunju ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Using data from a survey of loan applicants and bank officials from Union Bank of Nigeria and First Bank of Nigeria in south-western Nigeria, this paper empirically evaluated the determinants of loan approval decision and the size of the loan given using a Tobit regression model. With a multi-stage sampling technique, data ...

  3. Water supply system decision making using multicriteria analysis ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Sound decision-making processes for investments in water supply systems need to be developed. This need arises from the problem observed in developing countries of a growing demand for water supply projects coupled with a lack of financial resources available to invest in them. A second problem is the selection of a ...

  4. an analysis of perceived prominent decision making areas in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    p2333147

    The development of the highly individualistic commercial springbuck (Antidorcas marsupialis) production systems and the resulting growth in the commercial value of the springbuck has opened a new realm of game management decision making. These relatively undomesticated production systems demand sophisticated ...

  5. Analysis of Factors Affecting Decisions to Participate and Levels of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Structured questionnaire administered to the 158 respondents were used to collect cross-sectional data on factors influencing the market participation ... credit, education, cooperative society membership and minituber yam, in order to significantly increase the decision to participate in selling minituber yam and the level of ...

  6. Analysis of Product Buying Decision on Lazada E-commerce based on Previous Buyers’ Comments

    OpenAIRE

    Neil Aldrin

    2017-01-01

    The aims of the present research are: 1) to know that product buying decision possibly occurs, 2) to know how product buying decision occurs on Lazada e-commerce’s customers, 3) how previous buyers’ comments can increase product buying decision on Lazada e-commerce. This research utilizes qualitative research method. Qualitative research is a research that investigates other researches and makes assumption or discussion result so that other analysis results can be made in order to widen idea ...

  7. Transdisciplinary Evaluation of Energy Scenarios for a German Village Using Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Ines Wilkens (nee Braune); Peter Schmuck

    2012-01-01

    Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) can assist local decision processes towards selecting renewable energy systems as it is able to manage qualitative data and offers opportunities to integrate knowledge from local stakeholders. However, little experience is available regarding practical applications of MCDA in real decision processes in communities on their path towards a renewable energy supply. Within the “Bioenergy-Region Ludwigsfelde” project, an MCDA evaluation has been applied to a...

  8. Application of multicriteria decision analysis in health care: a systematic review and bibliometric analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adunlin, Georges; Diaby, Vakaramoko; Xiao, Hong

    2015-12-01

    The use of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) in health care has become common. However, the literature lacks systematic review trend analysis on the application of MCDA in health care. To systematically identify applications of MCDA to the areas of health care, and to report on publication trends. English language studies published from January 1, 1980 until October 1, 2013 were included. Electronic databases searches were supplemented by searching conference proceedings and relevant journals. Studies considered for inclusion were those using MCDA techniques within the areas of health care, and involving the participation of decision makers. A bibliometric analysis was undertaken to present the publication trends. A total of 66 citations met the inclusion criteria. An increase in publication trend occurred in the years 1990, 1997, 1999, 2005, 2008, and 2012. For the remaining years, the publication trend was either steady or declining. The trend shows that the number of publications reached its highest peak in 2012 (n = 9). Medical Decision Making was the dominant with the highest number published papers (n = 7). The majority of the studies were conducted in the US (n = 29). Medical Decision Making journal published the highest number of articles (n = 7). Analytic Hierarchy Process (n = 33) was the most used MCDA technique. Cancer was the most researched disease topic (n = 12). The most covered area of application was diagnosis and treatment (n = 26). The review shows that MCDA has been applied to a broad range of areas in the health care, with the use of a variety of methodological approaches. Further research is needed to develop practice guidelines for the appropriate application and reporting of MCDA methods. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  9. Adsorbate-induced Restructuring of Pb mesas Grown on Vicinal Si(111) in the Quantum Regime

    OpenAIRE

    Khajetoorians, Alexander Ako; Zhu, Wenguang; Kim, Jisun; Qin, Shengyong; Eisele, Holger; Zhang, Zhenyu; Shih, Chih-Kang

    2009-01-01

    Using scanning tunneling microscopy and spectroscopy, we demonstrate that the adsorption of a minute amount of Cs on a Pb mesa grown in the quantum regime can induce dramatic morphological changes of the mesa, characterized by the appearance of populous monatomic-layer-high Pb nano-islands on top of the mesa. The edges of the Pb nano-islands are decorated with Cs adatoms, and the nano-islands preferentially nucleate and grow on the quantum mechanically unstable regions of the mesa. Furthermor...

  10. Second-Order Risk Constraints in Decision Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Love Ekenberg

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Recently, representations and methods aimed at analysing decision problems where probabilities and values (utilities are associated with distributions over them (second-order representations have been suggested. In this paper we present an approach to how imprecise information can be modelled by means of second-order distributions and how a risk evaluation process can be elaborated by integrating procedures for numerically imprecise probabilities and utilities. We discuss some shortcomings of the use of the principle of maximising the expected utility and of utility theory in general, and offer remedies by the introduction of supplementary decision rules based on a concept of risk constraints taking advantage of second-order distributions.

  11. The analysis of the pilot's cognitive and decision processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Curry, R. E.

    1975-01-01

    Articles are presented on pilot performance in zero-visibility precision approach, failure detection by pilots during automatic landing, experiments in pilot decision-making during simulated low visibility approaches, a multinomial maximum likelihood program, and a random search algorithm for laboratory computers. Other topics discussed include detection of system failures in multi-axis tasks and changes in pilot workload during an instrument landing.

  12. Water supply system decision making using multicriteria analysis

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2005-07-04

    Jul 4, 2005 ... HASL (2001) Impacto do saneamento básico na saúde da popu- lação. Proc. 21st Cong. Bras. Eng. Sanitária e Ambiental. João Pes- soa, Paraíba, Brasil. MORAIS DC and ALMEIDA AT (2002) Multicriteria decision-aid for implementation of water supply system. Proc. MIM 2002: 5th Int. Conf. on Managing ...

  13. Trustworthy patient decision aids: a qualitative analysis addressing the risk of competing interests

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Elwyn, G.; Dannenberg, M.; Blaine, A.; Poddar, U.; Durand, M.A.

    2016-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: Our aim in this study was to examine the competing interest policies and procedures of organisations who develop and maintain patient decision aids. DESIGN: Descriptive and thematic analysis of data collected from a cross-sectional survey of patient decision aid developer's competing

  14. On the ethical analysis of value issues in public decision-making ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The nature, methodology, importance and implications of an ethical analysis of value issues pertaining to public decision-making is not evident. In this paper I would like to address these issues by posing the following questions: - Why is it important to focus on values in any process of public decision-making? - What is the ...

  15. Decision tree analysis to evaluate dry cow strategies under UK conditions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Berry, E.A.; Hogeveen, H.; Hillerton, J.E.

    2004-01-01

    Economic decisions on animal health strategies address the cost-benefit aspect along with animal welfare and public health concerns. Decision tree analysis at an individual cow level highlighted that there is little economic difference between the use of either dry cow antibiotic or an internal teat

  16. 75 FR 58374 - 2010 Release of CADDIS (Causal Analysis/Diagnosis Decision Information System)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-09-24

    ... Decision Information System) AGENCY: Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). ACTION: Notice of public... 2010 version of the Causal Analysis/Diagnosis Decision Information System (CADDIS). This Web site was developed to help scientists find, develop, organize, and use environmental information to improve causal...

  17. Warfighter decision making performance analysis as an investment priority driver

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thornley, David J.; Dean, David F.; Kirk, James C.

    2010-04-01

    Estimating the relative value of alternative tactics, techniques and procedures (TTP) and information systems requires measures of the costs and benefits of each, and methods for combining and comparing those measures. The NATO Code of Best Practice for Command and Control Assessment explains that decision making quality would ideally be best assessed on outcomes. Lessons learned in practice can be assessed statistically to support this, but experimentation with alternate measures in live conflict is undesirable. To this end, the development of practical experimentation to parameterize effective constructive simulation and analytic modelling for system utility prediction is desirable. The Land Battlespace Systems Department of Dstl has modeled human development of situational awareness to support constructive simulation by empirically discovering how evidence is weighed according to circumstance, personality, training and briefing. The human decision maker (DM) provides the backbone of the information processing activity associated with military engagements because of inherent uncertainty associated with combat operations. To develop methods for representing the process in order to assess equipment and non-technological interventions such as training and TTPs we are developing componentized or modularized timed analytic stochastic model components and instruments as part of a framework to support quantitative assessment of intelligence production and consumption methods in a human decision maker-centric mission space. In this paper, we formulate an abstraction of the human intelligence fusion process from the Defence Science and Technology Laboratory's (Dstl's) INCIDER model to include in our framework, and synthesize relevant cost and benefit characteristics.

  18. Health care priority setting in Norway a multicriteria decision analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Defechereux, Thierry; Paolucci, Francesco; Mirelman, Andrew; Youngkong, Sitaporn; Botten, Grete; Hagen, Terje P; Niessen, Louis W

    2012-02-15

    Priority setting in population health is increasingly based on explicitly formulated values. The Patients Rights Act of the Norwegian tax-based health service guaranties all citizens health care in case of a severe illness, a proven health benefit, and proportionality between need and treatment. This study compares the values of the country's health policy makers with these three official principles. In total 34 policy makers participated in a discrete choice experiment, weighting the relative value of six policy criteria. We used multi-variate logistic regression with selection as dependent valuable to derive odds ratios for each criterion. Next, we constructed a composite league table - based on the sum score for the probability of selection - to rank potential interventions in five major disease areas. The group considered cost effectiveness, large individual benefits and severity of disease as the most important criteria in decision making. Priority interventions are those related to cardiovascular diseases and respiratory diseases. Less attractive interventions rank those related to mental health. Norwegian policy makers' values are in agreement with principles formulated in national health laws. Multi-criteria decision approaches may provide a tool to support explicit allocation decisions.

  19. Credit analysis using cognitive maps as a tool to support decision making in a factoring company

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sergio Renato Ferreira Decker

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available This study represents a case study conducted in a factoring company in the city of Pelotas, Rio Grande do Sul. In order to support company managers, the research aimed to develop a tool to support the decision to grant credit to new customers. Aiming to better understand the problem presented, with all its complexity, a Cognitive Map of the credit analysis process was developed in a constructive way along with the maker.. Through the resulting Cognitive Map, the decision maker now possesses an important tool to describe their decisions. Such research will proceed with the development of the remaining steps necessary to build a  multicriteria decision model.

  20. Decision analysis interviews on protective actions in Finland supported by the RODOS system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haemaelaeinen, R.P.; Lindstedt, M.; Salo, A.

    2000-03-01

    This work was undertaken in order to study the utilisation of decision analysis interviews and of the RODOS system when planning protective actions in the case of a nuclear accident. Six decision analysis interview meetings were organised. Interviewees were competent national safety authorities and technical level decision-makers, i.e., those who are responsible for drawing up advice or making presentations of matters to decision-makers responsible for the practical implementation of the actions. The theme of the meetings was to study how uncertainties could be included in the decision-making process and whether pre-structured generic attributes and value trees would help this process and save time. The approach was to present a generic value tree, a decision table and a selected information package at the beginning of the interviews. The interviewees then examined the suggested value tree in order to ensure that no important factors have been omitted and they made changes when necessary. Also, the decision table was examined and altered by some participants and some of them asked for further information on some issues. But all in all the selected approach allowed for more time and effort to be allocated to value trade-offs and elicitation of risk attitudes. All information was calculated with the support of the RODOS system. Predefined value trees were found to ensure that all relevant factors are considered. The participants also felt that RODOS could provide the required information but, as in previous RODOS exercises, they found it more problematic to use decision analysis methods when planning countermeasures in the early phase of a nuclear accident. Furthermore, it was again noted that understanding the actual meaning 'soft' attributes, such as socio-psychological impacts, was not a straightforward issue. Consequently, the definition of attributes and training in advance would be beneficial. The incorporation of uncertainties also proved to be difficult and

  1. Decision analysis interviews on protective actions in Finland supported by the RODOS system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Haemaelaeinen, R.P.; Lindstedt, M. [Helsinki Univ. of Technology, Otaniemi (Finland). System Analysis Lab.; Sinkko, K.; Ammann, M. [Radiation and Nuclear Safety Authority, Helsinki (Finland); Salo, A. [Lepolantie 54, Helsinki (Finland)

    2000-03-01

    This work was undertaken in order to study the utilisation of decision analysis interviews and of the RODOS system when planning protective actions in the case of a nuclear accident. Six decision analysis interview meetings were organised. Interviewees were competent national safety authorities and technical level decision-makers, i.e., those who are responsible for drawing up advice or making presentations of matters to decision-makers responsible for the practical implementation of the actions. The theme of the meetings was to study how uncertainties could be included in the decision-making process and whether pre-structured generic attributes and value trees would help this process and save time. The approach was to present a generic value tree, a decision table and a selected information package at the beginning of the interviews. The interviewees then examined the suggested value tree in order to ensure that no important factors have been omitted and they made changes when necessary. Also, the decision table was examined and altered by some participants and some of them asked for further information on some issues. But all in all the selected approach allowed for more time and effort to be allocated to value trade-offs and elicitation of risk attitudes. All information was calculated with the support of the RODOS system. Predefined value trees were found to ensure that all relevant factors are considered. The participants also felt that RODOS could provide the required information but, as in previous RODOS exercises, they found it more problematic to use decision analysis methods when planning countermeasures in the early phase of a nuclear accident. Furthermore, it was again noted that understanding the actual meaning 'soft' attributes, such as socio-psychological impacts, was not a straightforward issue. Consequently, the definition of attributes and training in advance would be beneficial. The incorporation of uncertainties also proved to be

  2. Analysis of Product Buying Decision on Lazada E-commerce based on Previous Buyers’ Comments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Neil Aldrin

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The aims of the present research are: 1 to know that product buying decision possibly occurs, 2 to know how product buying decision occurs on Lazada e-commerce’s customers, 3 how previous buyers’ comments can increase product buying decision on Lazada e-commerce. This research utilizes qualitative research method. Qualitative research is a research that investigates other researches and makes assumption or discussion result so that other analysis results can be made in order to widen idea and opinion. Research result shows that product which has many ratings and reviews will trigger other buyers to purchase or get that product. The conclusion is that product buying decision may occur because there are some processes before making decision which are: looking for recognition and searching for problems, knowing the needs, collecting information, evaluating alternative, evaluating after buying. In those stages, buying decision on Lazada e-commerce is supported by price, promotion, service, and brand.

  3. Hanford Site cleanup and transition: Risk data needs for decision making (Hanford risk data gap analysis decision guide)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gajewski, S.; Glantz, C.; Harper, B.; Bilyard, G.; Miller, P.

    1995-10-01

    Given the broad array of environmental problems, technical alternatives, and outcomes desired by different stakeholders at Hanford, DOE will have to make difficult resource allocations over the next few decades. Although some of these allocations will be driven purely by legal requirements, almost all of the major objectives of the cleanup and economic transition missions involve choices among alternative pathways. This study examined the following questions: what risk information is needed to make good decisions at Hanford; how do those data needs compare to the set(s) of risk data that will be generated by regulatory compliance activities and various non-compliance studies that are also concerned with risk? This analysis examined the Hanford Site missions, the Hanford Strategic Plan, known stakeholder values, and the most important decisions that have to be made at Hanford to determine a minimum domain of risk information required to make good decisions that will withstand legal, political, and technical scrutiny. The primary risk categories include (1) public health, (2) occupational health and safety, (3) ecological integrity, (4) cultural-religious welfare, and (5) socio-economic welfare

  4. A New Method of Sensitivity Analysis for Multi-Criteria Decision Making in Water Resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shekarrizfard, S.; Shaghaghian, M. R.; Ganji, A.

    2014-12-01

    Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) techniques are widely used as practical tools to select superior projects/alternatives in water resources. However, parameter uncertainty (e.g., uncertainty in weights and performances) can significantly affects their performance in such a way that making a robust decision is too much difficult for a decision-maker. Thus, it is necessary to evaluate the effect of uncertainty on ranking of alternative decisions in order to reduce the possibility of failure in selecting a robust decision. In this study, we develop a novel probabilistic methodology for sensitivity analysis of a MCDM model to determine the robustness in decisions considering uncertainty in parameters. The proposed methodology which is developed based on Advanced First Order Second Moment (AFOSM) method estimates both performance and the probability of failure in ranking of alternatives. This provides additional information for decision makers to select a superior alternative with minimum risk of failure. This technique is applied to two case studies in water resources which previously evaluated using Weighted Sum Model (WSM), and the results are compared with those obtained from alternative sensitivity analysis methods, such as Monte Carlo based sensitivity analysis techniques. The results show that the proposed method improves the results of Multi-criteria analysis for water resources problem by providing additional information about the robustness and risk of failure in rank of alternatives when it is compared with other sensitivity analysis methods.

  5. Using multicriteria decision analysis to support research priority setting in biomedical translational research projects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Graaf, Gimon; Postmus, Douwe; Buskens, Erik

    2015-01-01

    Translational research is conducted to achieve a predefined set of economic or societal goals. As a result, investment decisions on where available resources have the highest potential in achieving these goals have to be made. In this paper, we first describe how multicriteria decision analysis can assist in defining the decision context and in ensuring that all relevant aspects of the decision problem are incorporated in the decision making process. We then present the results of a case study to support priority setting in a translational research consortium aimed at reducing the burden of disease of type 2 diabetes. During problem structuring, we identified four research alternatives (primary, secondary, tertiary microvascular, and tertiary macrovascular prevention) and a set of six decision criteria. Scoring of these alternatives against the criteria was done using a combination of expert judgement and previously published data. Lastly, decision analysis was performed using stochastic multicriteria acceptability analysis, which allows for the combined use of numerical and ordinal data. We found that the development of novel techniques applied in secondary prevention would be a poor investment of research funds. The ranking of the remaining alternatives was however strongly dependent on the decision maker's preferences for certain criteria.

  6. A preliminary study applying decision analysis to the treatment of caries in primary teeth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tamošiūnas, Vytautas; Kay, Elizabeth; Craven, Rebecca

    2013-01-01

    To determine an optimal treatment strategy for carious deciduous teeth. Manchester Dental Hospital. Decision analysis. The likelihoods of each of the sequelae of caries in deciduous teeth were determined from the literature. The utility of the outcomes from non-treatment and treatment was then measured in 100 parents of children with caries, using a visual analogue scale. Decision analysis was performed which weighted the value of each potential outcome by the probability of its occurrence. A decision tree "fold-back" and sensitivity analysis then determined which treatment strategies, under which circumstances, offered the maximum expected utilities. The decision to leave a carious deciduous tooth unrestored attracted a maximum utility of 76.65 and the overall expected utility for the decision "restore" was 73.27 The decision to restore or not restore carious deciduous teeth are therefore of almost equal value. The decision is however highly sensitive to the utility value assigned to the advent of pain by the patient. There is no clear advantage to be gained by restoring deciduous teeth if patients' evaluations of outcomes are taken into account. Avoidance of pain and avoidance of procedures which are viewed as unpleasant by parents should be key determinants of clinical decision making about carious deciduous teeth.

  7. Developing shape analysis tools to assist complex spatial decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mackey, H.E.; Ehler, G.B.; Cowen, D.

    1996-01-01

    The objective of this research was to develop and implement a shape identification measure within a geographic information system, specifically one that incorporates analytical modeling for site location planning. The application that was developed incorporated a location model within a raster-based GIS, which helped address critical performance issues for the decision support system. Binary matrices, which approximate the object's geometrical form, are passed over the grided data structure and allow identification of irregular and regularly shaped objects. Lastly, the issue of shape rotation is addressed and is resolved by constructing unique matrices corresponding to the object's orientation

  8. Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis for Health Care Decision Making--An Introduction: Report 1 of the ISPOR MCDA Emerging Good Practices Task Force.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thokala, Praveen; Devlin, Nancy; Marsh, Kevin; Baltussen, Rob; Boysen, Meindert; Kalo, Zoltan; Longrenn, Thomas; Mussen, Filip; Peacock, Stuart; Watkins, John; Ijzerman, Maarten

    2016-01-01

    Health care decisions are complex and involve confronting trade-offs between multiple, often conflicting, objectives. Using structured, explicit approaches to decisions involving multiple criteria can improve the quality of decision making and a set of techniques, known under the collective heading multiple criteria decision analysis (MCDA), are useful for this purpose. MCDA methods are widely used in other sectors, and recently there has been an increase in health care applications. In 2014, ISPOR established an MCDA Emerging Good Practices Task Force. It was charged with establishing a common definition for MCDA in health care decision making and developing good practice guidelines for conducting MCDA to aid health care decision making. This initial ISPOR MCDA task force report provides an introduction to MCDA - it defines MCDA; provides examples of its use in different kinds of decision making in health care (including benefit risk analysis, health technology assessment, resource allocation, portfolio decision analysis, shared patient clinician decision making and prioritizing patients' access to services); provides an overview of the principal methods of MCDA; and describes the key steps involved. Upon reviewing this report, readers should have a solid overview of MCDA methods and their potential for supporting health care decision making. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  9. FUZZY DECISION ANALYSIS FOR INTEGRATED ENVIRONMENTAL VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION

    Science.gov (United States)

    A fuzzy decision analysis method for integrating ecological indicators is developed. This is a combination of a fuzzy ranking method and the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). The method is capable ranking ecosystems in terms of environmental conditions and suggesting cumula...

  10. Integrated corridor management initiative : demonstration phase evaluation, San Diego decision support system analysis test plan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-08-01

    This report presents the test plan for conducting the Decision Support System Analysis for the United States Department of Transportation (U.S. DOT) evaluation of the San Diego Integrated Corridor Management (ICM) Initiative Demonstration. The ICM pr...

  11. Integrated corridor management initiative : demonstration phase evaluation - Dallas decision support system analysis test plan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-08-01

    This report presents the test plan for conducting the Decision Support System (DSS) Analysis for the : United States Department of Transportation (U.S. DOT) evaluation of the Dallas U.S. 75 Integrated : Corridor Management (ICM) Initiative Demonstrat...

  12. Sensitivity analysis in discrete multiple criteria decision problems: on the siting of nuclear power plants

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Janssen, R.; Rietveld, P.

    1989-01-01

    Inclusion of evaluation methods in decision support systems gives way to extensive sensitivity analysis. In this article new methods for sensitivityanalysis are developed and applied to the siting of nuclear power plants in the Netherlands.

  13. A Benefit-Risk Analysis Approach to Capture Regulatory Decision-Making: Multiple Myeloma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raju, G K; Gurumurthi, Karthik; Domike, Reuben; Kazandjian, Dickran; Landgren, Ola; Blumenthal, Gideon M; Farrell, Ann; Pazdur, Richard; Woodcock, Janet

    2018-01-01

    Drug regulators around the world make decisions about drug approvability based on qualitative benefit-risk analysis. In this work, a quantitative benefit-risk analysis approach captures regulatory decision-making about new drugs to treat multiple myeloma (MM). MM assessments have been based on endpoints such as time to progression (TTP), progression-free survival (PFS), and objective response rate (ORR) which are different than benefit-risk analysis based on overall survival (OS). Twenty-three FDA decisions on MM drugs submitted to FDA between 2003 and 2016 were identified and analyzed. The benefits and risks were quantified relative to comparators (typically the control arm of the clinical trial) to estimate whether the median benefit-risk was positive or negative. A sensitivity analysis was demonstrated using ixazomib to explore the magnitude of uncertainty. FDA approval decision outcomes were consistent and logical using this benefit-risk framework. © 2017 American Society for Clinical Pharmacology and Therapeutics.

  14. SEDIMENT ANALYSIS NETWORK FOR DECISION SUPPORT (SANDS) MODIS GULF SUBSETTED V1

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Sediment Analysis Network for Decision Support (SANDS) MODIS Gulf Subsetted dataset consists of daytime images for Terra and Aqua MODIS Reflectance bands 8-16,...

  15. How to use multi-criteria decision analysis methods for reimbursement decision-making in healthcare: a step-by-step guide.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diaby, Vakaramoko; Goeree, Ron

    2014-02-01

    In recent years, the quest for more comprehensiveness, structure and transparency in reimbursement decision-making in healthcare has prompted the research into alternative decision-making frameworks. In this environment, multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is arising as a valuable tool to support healthcare decision-making. In this paper, we present the main MCDA decision support methods (elementary methods, value-based measurement models, goal programming models and outranking models) using a case study approach. For each family of methods, an example of how an MCDA model would operate in a real decision-making context is presented from a critical perspective, highlighting the parameters setting, the selection of the appropriate evaluation model as well as the role of sensitivity and robustness analyses. This study aims to provide a step-by-step guide on how to use MCDA methods for reimbursement decision-making in healthcare.

  16. Using reliability analysis to support decision making\\ud in phased mission systems

    OpenAIRE

    Zhang, Yang; Prescott, Darren

    2017-01-01

    Due to the environments in which they will operate, future autonomous systems must be capable of reconfiguring quickly and safely following faults or environmental changes. Past research has shown how, by considering autonomous systems to perform phased missions, reliability analysis can support decision making by allowing comparison of the probability of success of different missions following reconfiguration. Binary Decision Diagrams (BDDs) offer fast, accurate reliability analysis that cou...

  17. Using the method of judgement analysis to address variations in diagnostic decision making

    OpenAIRE

    Hancock, Helen C; Mason, James M; Murphy, Jerry J

    2012-01-01

    Abstract Background Heart failure is not a clear-cut diagnosis but a complex clinical syndrome with consequent diagnostic uncertainty. Judgment analysis is a method to help clinical teams to understand how they make complex decisions. The method of judgment analysis was used to determine the factors that influence clinicians' diagnostic decisions about heart failure. Methods Three consultants, three middle grade doctors, and two junior doctors each evaluated 45 patient scenarios. The main out...

  18. An Evaluation on Factors Influencing Decision making for Malaysia Disaster Management: The Confirmatory Factor Analysis Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zubir, S. N. A.; Thiruchelvam, S.; Mustapha, K. N. M.; Che Muda, Z.; Ghazali, A.; Hakimie, H.

    2017-12-01

    For the past few years, natural disaster has been the subject of debate in disaster management especially in flood disaster. Each year, natural disaster results in significant loss of life, destruction of homes and public infrastructure, and economic hardship. Hence, an effective and efficient flood disaster management would assure non-futile efforts for life saving. The aim of this article is to examine the relationship between approach, decision maker, influence factor, result, and ethic to decision making for flood disaster management in Malaysia. The key elements of decision making in the disaster management were studied based on the literature. Questionnaire surveys were administered among lead agencies at East Coast of Malaysia in the state of Kelantan and Pahang. A total of 307 valid responses had been obtained for further analysis. Exploratory Factor Analysis (EFA) and Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA) were carried out to analyse the measurement model involved in the study. The CFA for second-order reflective and first-order reflective measurement model indicates that approach, decision maker, influence factor, result, and ethic have a significant and direct effect on decision making during disaster. The results from this study showed that decision- making during disaster is an important element for disaster management to necessitate a successful collaborative decision making. The measurement model is accepted to proceed with further analysis known as Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) and can be assessed for the future research.

  19. Decision Styles and Rationality: An Analysis of the Predictive Validity of the General Decision-Making Style Inventory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Curseu, Petru Lucian; Schruijer, Sandra G. L.

    2012-01-01

    This study investigates the relationship between the five decision-making styles evaluated by the General Decision-Making Style Inventory, indecisiveness, and rationality in decision making. Using a sample of 102 middle-level managers, the results show that the rational style positively predicts rationality in decision making and negatively…

  20. Shared decision-making in the paediatric field: a literature review and concept analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Eun Sook; Cho, In Young

    2017-09-13

    The concept of shared decision-making is poorly defined and often used interchangeably with related terms. The aim of this study was to delineate and clarify the concept of shared decision-making in the paediatric field. Rodgers and Knafl's evolutionary concept analysis was used to delineate and clarify the concept. Following a search of the CINAHL, PubMed and MEDLINE databases and online journals between 1995 and 2016, we included a total of 42 articles that referred to shared decision-making in the paediatric field. The attributes included active participation of the three: parents, children and health professionals; collaborative partnership; reaching a compromise; and common goal for child's health. Antecedents were existing several options with different possible outcomes; substantial decisional conflict; recognising child's health situations that decision-making is needed; and willingness to participate in decision-making. Finally, the consequences included decreased decisional conflict; mutual empowerment; improved child health status; and improved quality of paediatric health care. This study provides a theoretical understanding of the concept of shared decision-making in the paediatric field; furthermore, by integrating this concept into paediatric practice, it may help to reduce the gap between theory and practice. The analysis could also provide nursing researchers with insight into paediatric decision-making and establish a foundation to develop future interventions and situation-specific theory for promoting high-quality decision-making in the paediatric field. © 2017 Nordic College of Caring Science.

  1. Hierarchical Modelling of Flood Risk for Engineering Decision Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Custer, Rocco

    measures, allows identifying flexible and robust flood risk management strategies. Based on it, this thesis investigates hierarchical flood protection systems, which encompass two, or more, hierarchically integrated flood protection structures on different spatial scales (e.g. dikes, local flood barriers......Societies around the world are faced with flood risk, prompting authorities and decision makers to manage risk to protect population and assets. With climate change, urbanisation and population growth, flood risk changes constantly, requiring flood risk management strategies that are flexible...... and robust. Traditional risk management solutions, e.g. dike construction, are not particularly flexible, as they are difficult to adapt to changing risk. Conversely, the recent concept of integrated flood risk management, entailing a combination of several structural and non-structural risk management...

  2. Ship Engine Room Casualty Analysis by Using Decision Tree Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ömür Yaşar SAATÇİOĞLU

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Ships may encounter undesirable conditions during operations. In consequence of a casualty, fire, explosion, flooding, grounding, injury even death may occur. Besides, these results can be avoidable with precautions and preventive operating processes. In maritime transportation, casualties depend on various factors. These were listed as misuse of the engine equipment and tools, defective machinery or equipment, inadequacy of operational procedure and measure of safety and force majeure effects. Casualty reports which were published in Australia, New Zealand, United Kingdom, Canada and United States until 2015 were examined and the probable causes and consequences of casualties were determined with their occurrence percentages. In this study, 89 marine investigation reports regarding engine room casualties were analyzed. Casualty factors were analyzed with their frequency percentages and also their main causes were constructed. This study aims to investigate engine room based casualties, frequency of each casualty type and main causes by using decision tree method.

  3. Decision curve analysis as a framework to estimate the potential value of screening or other decision-making aids.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, Michael S; Wells, George A; Crocker, Anne G; Potter, Beth K; Colman, Ian

    2018-03-01

    There is an increasing debate about the impact of mental health screening. We illustrate the use of a decision making framework that can be applied when there is no sufficient data to support a traditional cost-benefit analysis. We conducted secondary analyses of data from 459 male prisoners who were screened upon intake. We compared the potential benefit of different approaches (screening, history taking, and universal interventions) to allocating treatment resources using decision curve analysis. Screening prisoners for distress at typical levels of sensitivity (75%) and specificity (71%) were estimated to provide the greatest net benefit if between 2 and 5 false positives per detected illness are tolerable. History taking and self-harm screening provide the largest net benefit when only 1 or 2 false positives per detected illness would be tolerable. The benefits of screening were less among those without a recent psychiatric history, ethnic minorities, and those with fewer psychosocial needs. Although screening has potential to increase detection of treatment, important subgroup differences exist. Greater consideration of responses to positive screens or alternatives to screening are needed to maximize the impact of efforts to improve detection and treatment of mental illness. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  4. 75 FR 46945 - Proposed Collection; Comment Request; Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) Event...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-08-04

    ... Request; Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) Event Surveillance SUMMARY: In compliance with the... Collection: Title: Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) Event Surveillance. Type of Information... disease (CVD)-- that is, atherosclerosis and other forms of CVD that have not produced signs and symptoms...

  5. MESA: Supporting Teaching and Learning about the Marine Environment--Primary Science Focus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Preston, Christine

    2010-01-01

    The Marine Education Society of Australasia (MESA) Inc. is a national organisation of marine educators that aims to bring together people interested in the study and enjoyment of coastal and marine environments. MESA representatives and members organise education and interpretation activities in support of schools and communities during a number…

  6. Ethnographic Evaluation of the MESA Program at a South-Central Phoenix High School.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaramillo, James A.

    MESA (Mathematics, Engineering, and Science Achievement) is a program designed to increase the number of underrepresented ethnic groups in professions related to mathematics, engineering, and the physical sciences. This paper describes and evaluates the MESA program at Jarama High School, Phoenix (Arizona), using informal interviews and…

  7. 76 FR 22075 - Divide Ranger District, Rio Grande National Forest; CO; Black Mesa Vegetation Management Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-04-20

    ... Ranger District, Rio Grande National Forest; CO; Black Mesa Vegetation Management Project AGENCY: Forest... Web site http://www.fs.usda.gov/riogrande under ``Land & Resource Management'', then ``Projects'' on... need for the Black Mesa Vegetation Management Project is move toward achieving long-term desired...

  8. Opportunities for parity violating electron scattering experiments at the planned MESA facility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aulenbacher, Kurt

    2011-11-01

    We suggest to start an accelerator physics project called the Mainz Energy recovering Superconducting Accelerator (MESA) as an extension to our experimental facilities. MESA may allow to introduce an innovative internal target regime based on the ERL principle. A second mode of operation will be to use an external polarized electron beam for parity violating experiments.

  9. Elevation gradients of flower visitation on a mesa in the Nama Karoo ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Francis

    We investigated the composition of the insect fauna visiting flowers on the mesa of Tafelberg. (Eastern Cape ... Plant species diversity is higher on the top of koppies/mesas (K.Esler, pers.comm.), but this ..... Moldenke AR (1979) Pollination ecology as an assay for ecosystemic organization: convergent evolution in Chile.

  10. LANL Institutional Decision Support By Process Modeling and Analysis Group (AET-2)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Booth, Steven Richard [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2016-04-04

    AET-2 has expertise in process modeling, economics, business case analysis, risk assessment, Lean/Six Sigma tools, and decision analysis to provide timely decision support to LANS leading to continuous improvement. This capability is critical during the current tight budgetary environment as LANS pushes to identify potential areas of cost savings and efficiencies. An important arena is business systems and operations, where processes can impact most or all laboratory employees. Lab-wide efforts are needed to identify and eliminate inefficiencies to accomplish Director McMillan’s charge of “doing more with less.” LANS faces many critical and potentially expensive choices that require sound decision support to ensure success. AET-2 is available to provide this analysis support to expedite the decisions at hand.

  11. Econometric Analysis of Bulk Shipping: implications for investment strategies and financial decision-making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    S. Tsolakis

    2005-01-01

    textabstractThis thesis provides an econometric analysis of the bulk shipping markets and the implications for shipping investment and financial decision making. Chapter 1 sets the scene by providing a historic analysis of bulk shipping markets over the last 55 years. From this analysis, four

  12. Environmental decision support system on base of geoinformational technologies for the analysis of nuclear accident consequences

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haas, T.C.; Maigan, M.; Arutyunyan, R.V.; Bolshov, L.A.; Demianov, V.V.

    1996-01-01

    The report deals with description of the concept and prototype of environmental decision support system (EDSS) for the analysis of late off-site consequences of severe nuclear accidents and analysis, processing and presentation of spatially distributed radioecological data. General description of the available software, use of modem achievements of geostatistics and stochastic simulations for the analysis of spatial data are presented and discussed

  13. Profesor Luis López de Mesa. Reminiscencias

    OpenAIRE

    J. Hernando Ordoñez

    1998-01-01

    Personalidad


    El 18 de Octubre pasado se cumplieron 30 años de la muerte del Profesor Luis López de Mesa, fecha luctuosa para la cultura americana. Con tal motivo quiero revivir su memoria y rendirle un cálido homenaje de gratitud y admiración, haciendo reminiscencias de hechos y anécdotas vividas gracias a la cordial amistad que me permitió apreciar la grandeza de su personalidad, que brilló con luz propia en todos los campos...

  14. Documentos: Comunicación y desarrollo (Mesa Redonda IPAL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Revista Chasqui

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available El Instituto para América Latina (IPAL a través de su Centro de Estudios sobre Cultura Transnacional (Lima organizó una Mesa Redonda sobre Comunicación y Desarrollo que se llevó a cabo en Lima, en la sede de la Junta del Acuerdo de Cartagena entre el 21 y 23 de mayo de 1986, bajo los auspicios de la UNESCO, el Sistema Económico Latinoamericano (SELA, la Junta del Acuerdo de Cartagena y la Fundación Friederich Ebert.

  15. Corrective Action Investigation Plan for Corrective Action Unit 99: Rainier Mesa/Shoshone Mountain, Nevada Test Site, Nevada with Errata and ROTC 1, Rev. No. 0

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McCord, John; Marutzky, Sam

    2004-12-01

    volcanic rocks that erupted from the caldera as well as from more distant sources. This has resulted in a layered volcanic stratigraphy composed of thick deposits of welded and nonwelded ash-flow tuff and lava flows. These deposits are proximal to the source caldera and are interstratified with the more distal facies of fallout tephra and bedded reworked tuff from more distant sources. In each area, a similar volcanic sequence was deposited upon Paleozoic carbonate and siliciclastic rocks that are disrupted by various thrust faults, normal faults, and strike-slip faults. In both Rainier Mesa (km) to the southwest, and Tippipah Spring, 4 km to the north, and the tunnel complex is dry. Particle-tracking simulations performed during the value of information analysis (VOIA) (SNJV, 2004b) indicate that most of the regional groundwater that underlies the test locations at Rainier Mesa and Shoshone Mountain eventually follows similar and parallel paths and ultimately discharges in Death Valley and the Amargosa Desert. Particle-tracking simulations conducted for the regional groundwater flow and risk assessment indicated that contamination from Rainier Mesa and Shoshone Mountain were unlikely to leave the NTS during the 1,000-year period of interest (DOE/NV, 1997a). It is anticipated that CAU-scale modeling will modify these results somewhat, but it is not expected to radically alter the outcome of these previous particle-tracking simulations within the 1,000-year period of interest. The Rainier Mesa/Shoshone Mountain CAIP describes the corrective action investigation (CAI) to be conducted at the Rainier Mesa/Shoshone Mountain CAU to evaluate the extent of contamination in groundwater due to the underground nuclear testing. The CAI will be conducted by the UGTA Project, which is part of the NNSA/NSO Environmental Restoration Project (ERP). The purpose and scope of the CAI are presented in this section, followed by a summary of the entire document.

  16. Baseline studies in the desert ecosystem at East Mesa Geothermal Test Site, Imperial Valley, California

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Romney, E.M.; Wallace, A.; Lunt, O.R.; Ackerman, T.A.; Kinnear, J.E.

    1977-09-01

    Baseline data reported herein for soil, vegetation, and small mammal components of the East Mesa desert ecosystem represent a collection period from October 1975 to September 1977. Inasmuch as changes in salt balance from geothermal brine sources are of potential impact upon the ecosystem, considerable analytical effort was given to the determination of element constituents in soil, plant, and animal samples. A preliminary synthesis of data was done to investigate the heterogeneity of element constituents among the sampled population and to summarize results. Findings indicate that periodic sampling and chemical analysis of vegetation around an industrialized geothermal energy source is probably the best way to monitor the surrounding ecosystem for assuring containment of any resource pollutants.

  17. MODULES FOR EXPERIMENTS IN STELLAR ASTROPHYSICS (MESA): PLANETS, OSCILLATIONS, ROTATION, AND MASSIVE STARS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Paxton, Bill; Cantiello, Matteo; Bildsten, Lars [Kavli Institute for Theoretical Physics, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA 93106 (United States); Arras, Phil [Department of Astronomy, University of Virginia, P.O. Box 400325, Charlottesville, VA 22904-4325 (United States); Brown, Edward F. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, National Superconducting Cyclotron Laboratory, and Joint Institute for Nuclear Astrophysics, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI 48864 (United States); Dotter, Aaron [Research School of Astronomy and Astrophysics, The Australian National University, Weston, ACT 2611 (Australia); Mankovich, Christopher [Department of Physics, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA 93106 (United States); Montgomery, M. H. [Department of Astronomy and McDonald Observatory, University of Texas, Austin, TX 78712 (United States); Stello, Dennis [Sydney Institute for Astronomy (SIfA), School of Physics, University of Sydney, NSW 2006 (Australia); Timmes, F. X. [School of Earth and Space Exploration, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ 85287 (United States); Townsend, Richard, E-mail: matteo@kitp.ucsb.edu [Department of Astronomy, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI 53706 (United States)

    2013-09-15

    We substantially update the capabilities of the open source software package Modules for Experiments in Stellar Astrophysics (MESA), and its one-dimensional stellar evolution module, MESA star. Improvements in MESA star's ability to model the evolution of giant planets now extends its applicability down to masses as low as one-tenth that of Jupiter. The dramatic improvement in asteroseismology enabled by the space-based Kepler and CoRoT missions motivates our full coupling of the ADIPLS adiabatic pulsation code with MESA star. This also motivates a numerical recasting of the Ledoux criterion that is more easily implemented when many nuclei are present at non-negligible abundances. This impacts the way in which MESA star calculates semi-convective and thermohaline mixing. We exhibit the evolution of 3-8 M{sub Sun} stars through the end of core He burning, the onset of He thermal pulses, and arrival on the white dwarf cooling sequence. We implement diffusion of angular momentum and chemical abundances that enable calculations of rotating-star models, which we compare thoroughly with earlier work. We introduce a new treatment of radiation-dominated envelopes that allows the uninterrupted evolution of massive stars to core collapse. This enables the generation of new sets of supernovae, long gamma-ray burst, and pair-instability progenitor models. We substantially modify the way in which MESA star solves the fully coupled stellar structure and composition equations, and we show how this has improved the scaling of MESA's calculational speed on multi-core processors. Updates to the modules for equation of state, opacity, nuclear reaction rates, and atmospheric boundary conditions are also provided. We describe the MESA Software Development Kit that packages all the required components needed to form a unified, maintained, and well-validated build environment for MESA. We also highlight a few tools developed by the community for rapid visualization of MESA star

  18. Modules for Experiments in Stellar Astrophysics (MESA): Planets, Oscillations, Rotation, and Massive Stars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paxton, Bill; Cantiello, Matteo; Arras, Phil; Bildsten, Lars; Brown, Edward F.; Dotter, Aaron; Mankovich, Christopher; Montgomery, M. H.; Stello, Dennis; Timmes, F. X.; Townsend, Richard

    2013-09-01

    We substantially update the capabilities of the open source software package Modules for Experiments in Stellar Astrophysics (MESA), and its one-dimensional stellar evolution module, MESA star. Improvements in MESA star's ability to model the evolution of giant planets now extends its applicability down to masses as low as one-tenth that of Jupiter. The dramatic improvement in asteroseismology enabled by the space-based Kepler and CoRoT missions motivates our full coupling of the ADIPLS adiabatic pulsation code with MESA star. This also motivates a numerical recasting of the Ledoux criterion that is more easily implemented when many nuclei are present at non-negligible abundances. This impacts the way in which MESA star calculates semi-convective and thermohaline mixing. We exhibit the evolution of 3-8 M ⊙ stars through the end of core He burning, the onset of He thermal pulses, and arrival on the white dwarf cooling sequence. We implement diffusion of angular momentum and chemical abundances that enable calculations of rotating-star models, which we compare thoroughly with earlier work. We introduce a new treatment of radiation-dominated envelopes that allows the uninterrupted evolution of massive stars to core collapse. This enables the generation of new sets of supernovae, long gamma-ray burst, and pair-instability progenitor models. We substantially modify the way in which MESA star solves the fully coupled stellar structure and composition equations, and we show how this has improved the scaling of MESA's calculational speed on multi-core processors. Updates to the modules for equation of state, opacity, nuclear reaction rates, and atmospheric boundary conditions are also provided. We describe the MESA Software Development Kit that packages all the required components needed to form a unified, maintained, and well-validated build environment for MESA. We also highlight a few tools developed by the community for rapid visualization of MESA star results.

  19. Modules for Experiments in Stellar Astrophysics (MESA): Binaries, Pulsations, and Explosions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paxton, Bill; Marchant, Pablo; Schwab, Josiah; Bauer, Evan B.; Bildsten, Lars; Cantiello, Matteo; Dessart, Luc; Farmer, R.; Hu, H.; Langer, N.; Townsend, R. H. D.; Townsley, Dean M.; Timmes, F. X.

    2015-09-01

    We substantially update the capabilities of the open-source software instrument Modules for Experiments in Stellar Astrophysics (MESA). MESA can now simultaneously evolve an interacting pair of differentially rotating stars undergoing transfer and loss of mass and angular momentum, greatly enhancing the prior ability to model binary evolution. New MESA capabilities in fully coupled calculation of nuclear networks with hundreds of isotopes now allow MESA to accurately simulate the advanced burning stages needed to construct supernova progenitor models. Implicit hydrodynamics with shocks can now be treated with MESA, enabling modeling of the entire massive star lifecycle, from pre-main-sequence evolution to the onset of core collapse and nucleosynthesis from the resulting explosion. Coupling of the GYRE non-adiabatic pulsation instrument with MESA allows for new explorations of the instability strips for massive stars while also accelerating the astrophysical use of asteroseismology data. We improve the treatment of mass accretion, giving more accurate and robust near-surface profiles. A new MESA capability to calculate weak reaction rates “on-the-fly” from input nuclear data allows better simulation of accretion induced collapse of massive white dwarfs and the fate of some massive stars. We discuss the ongoing challenge of chemical diffusion in the strongly coupled plasma regime, and exhibit improvements in MESA that now allow for the simulation of radiative levitation of heavy elements in hot stars. We close by noting that the MESA software infrastructure provides bit-for-bit consistency for all results across all the supported platforms, a profound enabling capability for accelerating MESA's development.

  20. Individual relocation decisions after tornadoes: a multi-level analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cong, Zhen; Nejat, Ali; Liang, Daan; Pei, Yaolin; Javid, Roxana J

    2018-04-01

    This study examines how multi-level factors affected individuals' relocation decisions after EF4 and EF5 (Enhanced Fujita Tornado Intensity Scale) tornadoes struck the United States in 2013. A telephone survey was conducted with 536 respondents, including oversampled older adults, one year after these two disaster events. Respondents' addresses were used to associate individual information with block group-level variables recorded by the American Community Survey. Logistic regression revealed that residential damage and homeownership are important predictors of relocation. There was also significant interaction between these two variables, indicating less difference between homeowners and renters at higher damage levels. Homeownership diminished the likelihood of relocation among younger respondents. Random effects logistic regression found that the percentage of homeownership and of higher income households in the community buffered the effect of damage on relocation; the percentage of older adults reduced the likelihood of this group relocating. The findings are assessed from the standpoint of age difference, policy implications, and social capital and vulnerability. © 2018 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2018.

  1. A method for analysis of nuclear power plant operators' decision making in simulated disturbance situations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1995-01-01

    An analysis method has been developed for analysis of nuclear power plant operators' decision making in simulated disturbance situations. The aim of the analysis is to investigate operators' orientation which is expected to manifest itself as collective strategies in utilization of resources of decision making. Resources analyzed here are different information sources and, in addition, collaborative resources like communication and participation. The cognitive approach on the basis of the method considers decision making as collective construction of common interpretation of available information. Utilization of information is evaluated with respect to operative context. This is made with help of conceptualization of the disturbance situation from the decision making point of view and by construction of operative reference for activity. The latter means conceptualization of the situation from the safety point of view and also consideration of other boundary constraints of decision making, i.e. economical and technical aspects. The analysis method is intended to be used in routine simulator training in nuclear power plants. By virtue of its contextual and dynamical approach it makes the developing nature of activity visible. Cumulation and distribution of knowledge of decision making as developing activity, controlled by orientation and boundary constraints of process control, is expected to improve operational culture of a plant organization. (author). 2 refs, 1 fig

  2. Cost-benefit analysis in decision making for diagnostic radiology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fabrikant, J.I.; Hilberg, A.W.

    1982-02-01

    This paper reviews certain current concepts and methods relating to benefit-risk analysis, in terms of economic costs and raidation risks to health, in relation to the benefits from diagnostic radiology in clinical medicine

  3. Lean production tools and decision latitude enable conditions for innovative learning in organizations: a multilevel analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fagerlind Ståhl, Anna-Carin; Gustavsson, Maria; Karlsson, Nadine; Johansson, Gun; Ekberg, Kerstin

    2015-03-01

    The effect of lean production on conditions for learning is debated. This study aimed to investigate how tools inspired by lean production (standardization, resource reduction, visual monitoring, housekeeping, value flow analysis) were associated with an innovative learning climate and with collective dispersion of ideas in organizations, and whether decision latitude contributed to these associations. A questionnaire was sent out to employees in public, private, production and service organizations (n = 4442). Multilevel linear regression analyses were used. Use of lean tools and decision latitude were positively associated with an innovative learning climate and collective dispersion of ideas. A low degree of decision latitude was a modifier in the association to collective dispersion of ideas. Lean tools can enable shared understanding and collective spreading of ideas, needed for the development of work processes, especially when decision latitude is low. Value flow analysis played a pivotal role in the associations. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd and The Ergonomics Society. All rights reserved.

  4. A Meta-Analysis of Blood Glucose Effects on Human Decision Making

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Orquin, Jacob L.; Kurzban, Robert

    2016-01-01

    The academic and public interest in blood glucose and its relationship to decision making has been increasing over the last decade. To investigate and evaluate competing theories about this relationship, we conducted a psychometric meta-analysis on the effect of blood glucose on decision making. We...... and willingness to work when a situation is food related, but decrease willingness to pay and work in all other situations. Low levels of blood glucose increase the future discount rate for food; that is, decision makers become more impatient, and to a lesser extent increase the future discount rate for money...

  5. An Analysis on Performance of Decision Tree Algorithms using Student’s Qualitative Data

    OpenAIRE

    T.Miranda Lakshmi; A.Martin; R.Mumtaj Begum; V.Prasanna Venkatesan

    2013-01-01

    Decision Tree is the most widely applied supervised classification technique. The learning and classification steps of decision tree induction are simple and fast and it can be applied to any domain. In this research student qualitative data has been taken from educational data mining and the performance analysis of the decision tree algorithm ID3, C4.5 and CART are compared. The comparison result shows that the Gini Index of CART influence information Gain Ratio of ID3 and C4.5. The classif...

  6. Proof of patient information: Analysis of 201 judicial decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dugleux, E; Rached, H; Rougé-Maillart, C

    2018-02-15

    The ruling by the French Court of Cassation dated February 25, 1997 obliged doctors to provide proof of the information given to patients, reversing more than half a century of case law. In October 1997, it was specified that such evidence could be provided by "all means", including presumption. No hierarchy in respect of means of proof has been defined by case law or legislation. The present study analyzed judicial decisions with a view to determining the means of proof liable to carry the most weight in a suit for failure to provide due patient information. A retrospective qualitative study was conducted for the period from January 2010 to December 2015, by a search on the LexisNexis ® JurisClasseur website. Two hundred and one judicial decisions relating to failure to provide due patient information were selected and analyzed to study the characteristics of the practitioners involved, the content of the information at issue and the means of proof provided. The resulting cohort of practitioners was compared with the medical demographic atlas of the French Order of Medicine, considered as exhaustive. Two hundred and one practitioners were investigated for failure to provide information: 45 medical practitioners (22±3%), and 156 surgeons (78±3%) including 45 orthopedic surgeons (29±3.6% of surgeons). Hundred and ninety-three were private sector (96±1.3%) and 8 public sector (4±1.3%). Hundred and one surgeons (65±3.8% of surgeons), and 26 medical practitioners (58±7.4%) were convicted. Twenty-five of the 45 orthopedic surgeons were convicted (55±7.5%). There was no significant difference in conviction rates between surgeons and medical practitioners: odds ratio, 1.339916; 95% CI [0.6393982; 2.7753764] (Chi 2 test: p=0.49). Ninety-two practitioners based their defense on a single means of proof, and 74 of these were convicted (80±4.2%). Forty practitioners based their defense on several means of proof, and 16 of these were convicted (40±7.8%). There was

  7. Vegetation classification and distribution mapping report Mesa Verde National Park

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, Kathryn A.; McTeague, Monica L.; Ogden, Lindsay; Floyd, M. Lisa; Schulz, Keith; Friesen, Beverly A.; Fancher, Tammy; Waltermire, Robert G.; Cully, Anne

    2009-01-01

    The classification and distribution mapping of the vegetation of Mesa Verde National Park (MEVE) and surrounding environment was achieved through a multi-agency effort between 2004 and 2007. The National Park Service’s Southern Colorado Plateau Network facilitated the team that conducted the work, which comprised the U.S. Geological Survey’s Southwest Biological Science Center, Fort Collins Research Center, and Rocky Mountain Geographic Science Center; Northern Arizona University; Prescott College; and NatureServe. The project team described 47 plant communities for MEVE, 34 of which were described from quantitative classification based on f eld-relevé data collected in 1993 and 2004. The team derived 13 additional plant communities from field observations during the photointerpretation phase of the project. The National Vegetation Classification Standard served as a framework for classifying these plant communities to the alliance and association level. Eleven of the 47 plant communities were classified as “park specials;” that is, plant communities with insufficient data to describe them as new alliances or associations. The project team also developed a spatial vegetation map database representing MEVE, with three different map-class schemas: base, group, and management map classes. The base map classes represent the fi nest level of spatial detail. Initial polygons were developed using Definiens Professional (at the time of our use, this software was called eCognition), assisted by interpretation of 1:12,000 true-color digital orthophoto quarter quadrangles (DOQQs). These polygons (base map classes) were labeled using manual photo interpretation of the DOQQs and 1:12,000 true-color aerial photography. Field visits verified interpretation concepts. The vegetation map database includes 46 base map classes, which consist of associations, alliances, and park specials classified with quantitative analysis, additional associations and park specials noted

  8. Initiating decision-making conversations in palliative care: an ethnographic discourse analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bélanger, Emmanuelle; Rodríguez, Charo; Groleau, Danielle; Légaré, France; Macdonald, Mary Ellen; Marchand, Robert

    2014-01-01

    Conversations about end-of-life care remain challenging for health care providers. The tendency to delay conversations about care options represents a barrier that impedes the ability of terminally-ill patients to participate in decision-making. Family physicians with a palliative care practice are often responsible for discussing end-of-life care preferences with patients, yet there is a paucity of research directly observing these interactions. In this study, we sought to explore how patients and family physicians initiated decision-making conversations in the context of a community hospital-based palliative care service. This qualitative study combined discourse analysis with ethnographic methods. The field research lasted one year, and data were generated through participant observation and audio-recordings of consultations. A total of 101 consultations were observed longitudinally between 18 patients, 6 family physicians and 2 pivot nurses. Data analysis consisted in exploring the different types of discourses initiating decision-making conversations and how these discourses were affected by the organizational context in which they took place. The organization of care had an impact on decision-making conversations. The timing and origin of referrals to palliative care shaped whether patients were still able to participate in decision-making, and the decisions that remained to be made. The type of decisions to be made also shaped how conversations were initiated. Family physicians introduced decision-making conversations about issues needing immediate attention, such as symptom management, by directly addressing or eliciting patients' complaints. When decisions involved discussing impending death, decision-making conversations were initiated either indirectly, by prompting the patients to express their understanding of the disease and its progression, or directly, by providing a justification for broaching a difficult topic. Decision-making conversations and

  9. Modeling unsaturated-zone flow at Rainier Mesa as a possible analog for a future Yucca Mountain

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gauthier, J.H.

    1998-01-01

    Rainier Mesa is structurally similar to Yucca Mountain, and receives precipitation similar to the estimated long-term average for Yucca Mountain. Tunnels through the unsaturated zone at Rainier Mesa have encountered perched water and, after the perched water was drained, flow in fractures and faults. Although flow observations have been primarily qualitative, Rainier Mesa hydrology is a potential analog for Yucca Mountain hydrology in a wetter climate. In this paper, a groundwater flow model that has been used in the performance assessment of Yucca Mountain--the weeps model--is applied to Rainier Mesa. The intent is to gain insight in both Rainier Mesa and the weeps flow model

  10. [Comparison of Discriminant Analysis and Decision Trees for the Detection of Subclinical Keratoconus].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kleinhans, Sonja; Herrmann, Eva; Kohnen, Thomas; Bühren, Jens

    2017-08-15

    Background Iatrogenic keratectasia is one of the most dreaded complications of refractive surgery. In most cases, keratectasia develops after refractive surgery of eyes suffering from subclinical stages of keratoconus with few or no signs. Unfortunately, there has been no reliable procedure for the early detection of keratoconus. In this study, we used binary decision trees (recursive partitioning) to assess their suitability for discrimination between normal eyes and eyes with subclinical keratoconus. Patients and Methods The method of decision tree analysis was compared with discriminant analysis which has shown good results in previous studies. Input data were 32 eyes of 32 patients with newly diagnosed keratoconus in the contralateral eye and preoperative data of 10 eyes of 5 patients with keratectasia after laser in-situ keratomileusis (LASIK). The control group was made up of 245 normal eyes after LASIK and 12-month follow-up without any signs of iatrogenic keratectasia. Results Decision trees gave better accuracy and specificity than did discriminant analysis. The sensitivity of decision trees was lower than the sensitivity of discriminant analysis. Conclusion On the basis of the patient population of this study, decision trees did not prove to be superior to linear discriminant analysis for the detection of subclinical keratoconus. Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

  11. Multi-criteria decision analysis with probabilistic risk assessment for the management of contaminated ground water

    OpenAIRE

    Khadam, I.; Kaluarachchi, J. J.

    2003-01-01

    Traditionally, environmental decision analysis in subsurface contamination scenarios is performed using cost–benefit analysis. In this paper, we discuss some of the limitations associated with cost–benefit analysis, especially its definition of risk, its definition of cost of risk, and its poor ability to communicate risk-related information. This paper presents an integrated approach for management of contaminated ground water resources using health risk assessment and economic analysis thro...

  12. The Madrid Train Bombings: A Decision-Making Model Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-12-11

    4 Since 9/11 virtually all elements of national power have been used to strategically react to terrorism. 2 This study will analyze a terrorist...election.4 While this caused much controversy within Spain, it also makes an analysis using the Organizational Process Model virtually impossible...Cuerpo Nacional de Polic´ıa or CNP and the Guardia Civil), its counterterrorist agency (Spanish security forces--Fuerzas y Cuerpos de Seguridad del

  13. Microvasculature and incident atrioventricular conduction abnormalities in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chacko, Billy G; Edwards, Matthew S; Sharrett, A Richey; Qureshi, Waqas T; Klein, Barbara E K; Klein, Ronald; Herrington, David M; Soliman, Elsayed Z

    2015-10-01

    Abnormalities of the microvasculature are linked to major cardiac events, but their role in the development of atrioventricular conduction abnormalities (AVCA) is unknown. We examined the association between central retinal arteriolar equivalent (CRAE), a measure of the microvasculature, and incident AVCA. This analysis included 3975 participants free of AVCA at baseline from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA). Incident AVCA was defined as a composite of new heart rate-adjusted PR interval ⩾ 200 ms (first-degree AV block) and advanced block (second-degree or complete AV block) detected from the MESA exam 5 electrocardiogram (ECG). CRAE was measured from retinal photographs at exam 2. Both ECGs and retinal photographs were collected using standardized methods and read and graded at central core labs. Incident AVCA were present in 7.4% (n=290) of the participants, of which 94% were first-degree AV block. Incident AVCA were increasingly more common in participants with narrower CRAE (4.6% in Q4, 6.4% in Q3, 7.0% in Q2 and 10.8% in Q1, p-value for trend < 0.0001). The socio-demographic and cardiovascular disease risk-adjusted odds of incident AVCA in the Q1 group (the group with the narrowest retinal arteriolar diameter) was nearly twice the odds in the Q4 group (OR: 1.68, 95% CI: 1.15-2.51). This association remained significant after adjustment for major ECG abnormalities and incident cardiovascular disease (Q1 vs Q4, OR: 1.65, 95% CI: 1.01-2.71). In conclusion, narrower retinal arteriolar caliber is associated with development of new AV conduction abnormalities. © The Author(s) 2015.

  14. Decision on performing interim analysis for comparative clinical trials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pak, Kyongsun; Jacobus, Susanna; Uno, Hajime

    2017-09-01

    In randomized-controlled trials, interim analyses are often planned for possible early trial termination to claim superiority or futility of a new therapy. While unblinding is necessary to conduct the formal interim analysis in blinded studies, blinded data also have information about the potential treatment difference between the groups. We developed a blinded data monitoring tool that enables investigators to predict whether they observe such an unblinded interim analysis results that supports early termination of the trial. Investigators may skip some of the planned interim analyses if an early termination is unlikely. We specifically focused on blinded, randomized-controlled studies to compare binary endpoints of a new treatment with a control. Assuming one interim analysis is planned for early termination for superiority or futility, we conducted extensive simulation studies to assess the impact of the implementation of our tool on the size, power, expected number of interim analyses, and bias in the treatment effect. The numerical study showed the proposed monitoring tool does not affect size or power, but dramatically reduces the expected number of interim analyses when the effect of the treatment difference is small. The tool serves as a useful reference when interpreting the summary of the blinded data throughout the course of the trial, without losing integrity of the study. This tool could potentially save the study resources and budget by avoiding unnecessary interim analyses.

  15. Decision tree analysis in subarachnoid hemorrhage: prediction of outcome parameters during the course of aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage using decision tree analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hostettler, Isabel Charlotte; Muroi, Carl; Richter, Johannes Konstantin; Schmid, Josef; Neidert, Marian Christoph; Seule, Martin; Boss, Oliver; Pangalu, Athina; Germans, Menno Robbert; Keller, Emanuela

    2018-01-19

    OBJECTIVE The aim of this study was to create prediction models for outcome parameters by decision tree analysis based on clinical and laboratory data in patients with aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH). METHODS The database consisted of clinical and laboratory parameters of 548 patients with aSAH who were admitted to the Neurocritical Care Unit, University Hospital Zurich. To examine the model performance, the cohort was randomly divided into a derivation cohort (60% [n = 329]; training data set) and a validation cohort (40% [n = 219]; test data set). The classification and regression tree prediction algorithm was applied to predict death, functional outcome, and ventriculoperitoneal (VP) shunt dependency. Chi-square automatic interaction detection was applied to predict delayed cerebral infarction on days 1, 3, and 7. RESULTS The overall mortality was 18.4%. The accuracy of the decision tree models was good for survival on day 1 and favorable functional outcome at all time points, with a difference between the training and test data sets of decision trees enables exploration of dependent variables in the context of multiple changing influences over the course of an illness. The decision tree currently generated increases awareness of the early systemic stress response, which is seemingly pertinent for prognostication.

  16. A critical narrative analysis of shared decision-making in acute inpatient mental health care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stacey, Gemma; Felton, Anne; Morgan, Alastair; Stickley, Theo; Willis, Martin; Diamond, Bob; Houghton, Philip; Johnson, Beverley; Dumenya, John

    2016-01-01

    Shared decision-making (SDM) is a high priority in healthcare policy and is complementary to the recovery philosophy in mental health care. This agenda has been operationalised within the Values-Based Practice (VBP) framework, which offers a theoretical and practical model to promote democratic interprofessional approaches to decision-making. However, these are limited by a lack of recognition of the implications of power implicit within the mental health system. This study considers issues of power within the context of decision-making and examines to what extent decisions about patients' care on acute in-patient wards are perceived to be shared. Focus groups were conducted with 46 mental health professionals, service users, and carers. The data were analysed using the framework of critical narrative analysis (CNA). The findings of the study suggested each group constructed different identity positions, which placed them as inside or outside of the decision-making process. This reflected their view of themselves as best placed to influence a decision on behalf of the service user. In conclusion, the discourse of VBP and SDM needs to take account of how differentials of power and the positioning of speakers affect the context in which decisions take place.

  17. Negative decision outcomes are more common among people with lower decision-making competence: An item-level analysis of the Decision Outcome Inventory (DOI

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew M Parker

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Most behavioral decision research takes place in carefully controlled laboratory settings, and examination of relationships between performance and specific real-world decision outcomes is rare. One prior study shows that people who perform better on hypothetical decision tasks, assessed using the Adult Decision-Making Competence (A-DMC measure, also tend to experience better real-world decision outcomes, as reported on the Decision Outcomes Inventory (DOI. The DOI score reflects avoidance of outcomes that could result from poor decisions, ranging from serious (e.g., bankruptcy to minor (e.g., blisters from sunburn. The present analyses go beyond the initial work, which focused on the overall DOI score, by analyzing the relationships between specific decision outcomes and A-DMC performance. Most outcomes are significantly more likely among people with lower A-DMC scores, even after taking into account two variables expected to produce worse real-world decision outcomes: younger age and lower socio-economic status. We discuss the usefulness of DOI as a measure of successful real-world decision making.

  18. Tunable terahertz emission from the intrinsic Josephson junctions in acute isosceles triangular Bi₂Sr₂CaCu₂O₈+δ mesas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delfanazari, K; Asai, H; Tsujimoto, M; Kashiwagi, T; Kitamura, T; Yamamoto, T; Sawamura, M; Ishida, K; Watanabe, C; Sekimoto, S; Minami, H; Tachiki, M; Klemm, R A; Hattori, T; Kadowaki, K

    2013-01-28

    In order to determine if the mesa geometry might affect the properties of the coherent terahertz (THz) radiation emitted from the intrinsic Josephson junctions in mesas constructed from single crystals of the high-temperature superconductor, Bi₂Sr₂CaCu₂O₈+δ, we studied triangular mesas. For equilateral triangular mesas, the observed emission was found to be limited to the single mesa TM(1,0) mode. However, tunable radiation over the range from 0.495 to 0.934 THz was found to arise from an acute isosceles triangular mesa. This 47% tunability is the widest yet observed from the outer current-voltage characteristic branch of such mesas of any geometry. Although the radiation at a few of the frequencies in the tunable range appear to have been enhanced by cavity resonances, most frequencies are far from such resonance frequencies, and can only be attributed to the ac-Josephson effect.

  19. Advances in Understanding Air Pollution and Cardiovascular Diseases: The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis and Air Pollution (MESA Air)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaufman, Joel D.; Spalt, Elizabeth W.; Curl, Cynthia L.; Hajat, Anjum; Jones, Miranda R.; Kim, Sun-Young; Vedal, Sverre; Szpiro, Adam A.; Gassett, Amanda; Sheppard, Lianne; Daviglus, Martha L.; Adar, Sara D.

    2016-01-01

    The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis and Air Pollution (MESA Air) leveraged the platform of the MESA cohort into a prospective longitudinal study of relationships between air pollution and cardiovascular health. MESA Air researchers developed fine-scale, state-of-the-art air pollution exposure models for the MESA Air communities, creating individual exposure estimates for each participant. These models combine cohort-specific exposure monitoring, existing monitoring systems, and an extensive database of geographic and meteorological information. Together with extensive phenotyping in MESA—and adding participants and health measurements to the cohort—MESA Air investigated environmental exposures on a wide range of outcomes. Advances by the MESA Air team included not only a new approach to exposure modeling but also biostatistical advances in addressing exposure measurement error and temporal confounding. The MESA Air study advanced our understanding of the impact of air pollutants on cardiovascular disease and provided a research platform for advances in environmental epidemiology. PMID:27741981

  20. A decision analysis approach for risk management of near-earth objects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Robert C.; Jones, Thomas D.; Chapman, Clark R.

    2014-10-01

    Risk management of near-Earth objects (NEOs; e.g., asteroids and comets) that can potentially impact Earth is an important issue that took on added urgency with the Chelyabinsk event of February 2013. Thousands of NEOs large enough to cause substantial damage are known to exist, although only a small fraction of these have the potential to impact Earth in the next few centuries. The probability and location of a NEO impact are subject to complex physics and great uncertainty, and consequences can range from minimal to devastating, depending upon the size of the NEO and location of impact. Deflecting a potential NEO impactor would be complex and expensive, and inter-agency and international cooperation would be necessary. Such deflection campaigns may be risky in themselves, and mission failure may result in unintended consequences. The benefits, risks, and costs of different potential NEO risk management strategies have not been compared in a systematic fashion. We present a decision analysis framework addressing this hazard. Decision analysis is the science of informing difficult decisions. It is inherently multi-disciplinary, especially with regard to managing catastrophic risks. Note that risk analysis clarifies the nature and magnitude of risks, whereas decision analysis guides rational risk management. Decision analysis can be used to inform strategic, policy, or resource allocation decisions. First, a problem is defined, including the decision situation and context. Second, objectives are defined, based upon what the different decision-makers and stakeholders (i.e., participants in the decision) value as important. Third, quantitative measures or scales for the objectives are determined. Fourth, alternative choices or strategies are defined. Fifth, the problem is then quantitatively modeled, including probabilistic risk analysis, and the alternatives are ranked in terms of how well they satisfy the objectives. Sixth, sensitivity analyses are performed in

  1. Aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage prognostic decision-making algorithm using classification and regression tree analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lo, Benjamin W Y; Fukuda, Hitoshi; Angle, Mark; Teitelbaum, Jeanne; Macdonald, R Loch; Farrokhyar, Forough; Thabane, Lehana; Levine, Mitchell A H

    2016-01-01

    Classification and regression tree analysis involves the creation of a decision tree by recursive partitioning of a dataset into more homogeneous subgroups. Thus far, there is scarce literature on using this technique to create clinical prediction tools for aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH). The classification and regression tree analysis technique was applied to the multicenter Tirilazad database (3551 patients) in order to create the decision-making algorithm. In order to elucidate prognostic subgroups in aneurysmal SAH, neurologic, systemic, and demographic factors were taken into account. The dependent variable used for analysis was the dichotomized Glasgow Outcome Score at 3 months. Classification and regression tree analysis revealed seven prognostic subgroups. Neurological grade, occurrence of post-admission stroke, occurrence of post-admission fever, and age represented the explanatory nodes of this decision tree. Split sample validation revealed classification accuracy of 79% for the training dataset and 77% for the testing dataset. In addition, the occurrence of fever at 1-week post-aneurysmal SAH is associated with increased odds of post-admission stroke (odds ratio: 1.83, 95% confidence interval: 1.56-2.45, P tree was generated, which serves as a prediction tool to guide bedside prognostication and clinical treatment decision making. This prognostic decision-making algorithm also shed light on the complex interactions between a number of risk factors in determining outcome after aneurysmal SAH.

  2. Applying rigorous decision analysis methodology to optimization of a tertiary recovery project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wackowski, R.K.; Stevens, C.E.; Masoner, L.O.; Attanucci, V.; Larson, J.L.; Aslesen, K.S.

    1992-01-01

    This paper reports that the intent of this study was to rigorously look at all of the possible expansion, investment, operational, and CO 2 purchase/recompression scenarios (over 2500) to yield a strategy that would maximize net present value of the CO 2 project at the Rangely Weber Sand Unit. Traditional methods of project management, which involve analyzing large numbers of single case economic evaluations, was found to be too cumbersome and inaccurate for an analysis of this scope. The decision analysis methodology utilized a statistical approach which resulted in a range of economic outcomes. Advantages of the decision analysis methodology included: a more organized approach to classification of decisions and uncertainties; a clear sensitivity method to identify the key uncertainties; an application of probabilistic analysis through the decision tree; and a comprehensive display of the range of possible outcomes for communication to decision makers. This range made it possible to consider the upside and downside potential of the options and to weight these against the Unit's strategies. Savings in time and manpower required to complete the study were also realized

  3. Geology, geochronology, and geochemistry of basaltic flows of the Cat Hills, Cat Mesa, Wind Mesa, Cerro Verde, and Mesita Negra, central New Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maldonado, F.; Budahn, J.R.; Peters, L.; Unruh, D.M.

    2006-01-01

    The geochronology, geochemistry, and isotopic compositions of basaltic flows erupted from the Cat Hills, Cat Mesa, Wind Mesa, Cerro Verde, and Mesita Negra volcanic centres in central New Mexico indicate that each of these lavas had unique origins and that the predominant mantle involved in their production was an ocean-island basalt type. The basalts from Cat Hills (0.11 Ma) and Cat Mesa (3.0 Ma) are similar in major and trace element composition, but differences in MgO contents and Pb isotopic values are attributed to a small involvement of a lower crustal component in the genesis of the Cat Mesa rocks. The Cerro Verde rock is comparable in age (0.32 Ma) to the Cat Hills lavas, but it is more radiogenic in Sr and Nd, has higher MgO contents, and has a lower La/Yb ratio. This composition is explained by the melting of an enriched mantle source, but the involvement of another crustal component cannot be disregarded. The Wind Mesa rock is characterized by similar age (4.01 Ma) and MgO contents, but it has enriched rare-earth element contents compared with the Cat Mesa samples. These are attributed to a difference in the degree of partial melting of the Cat Mesa source. The Mesita Negra rock (8.11 Ma) has distinctive geochemical and isotopic compositions that suggest a different enriched mantle and that large amounts of a crustal component were involved in generating this magma. These data imply a temporal shift in magma source regions and crustal involvement, and have been previously proposed for Rio Grande rift lavas. ?? 2006 NRC Canada.

  4. Applied Swarm-based medicine: collecting decision trees for patterns of algorithms analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panje, Cédric M; Glatzer, Markus; von Rappard, Joscha; Rothermundt, Christian; Hundsberger, Thomas; Zumstein, Valentin; Plasswilm, Ludwig; Putora, Paul Martin

    2017-08-16

    The objective consensus methodology has recently been applied in consensus finding in several studies on medical decision-making among clinical experts or guidelines. The main advantages of this method are an automated analysis and comparison of treatment algorithms of the participating centers which can be performed anonymously. Based on the experience from completed consensus analyses, the main steps for the successful implementation of the objective consensus methodology were identified and discussed among the main investigators. The following steps for the successful collection and conversion of decision trees were identified and defined in detail: problem definition, population selection, draft input collection, tree conversion, criteria adaptation, problem re-evaluation, results distribution and refinement, tree finalisation, and analysis. This manuscript provides information on the main steps for successful collection of decision trees and summarizes important aspects at each point of the analysis.

  5. Landslide susceptibility mapping of a landside-prone area from Turkey by decision tree analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gorum, Tolga; Celal Tunusluoglu, M.; Sezer, Ebru; Nefeslioglu, Hakan A.; Bozkir, A. Selman; Gokceoglu, Candan

    2010-05-01

    The landslides are accepted as one of the important natural hazards throughout the world. Besides, the regional landslide susceptibility assessments is one of the first stages of the landslide hazard mitigation efforts. For this purpose, various methods have been applied to produce landslide susceptibility maps for many years. However, application of decision tree to landslide susceptibility mapping, one of data mining methods, is not common. Considering this lack in the landslide literature,an application of decision tree method to landslide susceptibility mapping is the main purpose of the present study. As the study area, the Inegol region (Northwestern Turkey) is selected. In the first stage of the study, a landslide inventory is produced by aerial-photo interpretations and field studies. Employing 16 topographic and lithologic variables, the landslide susceptibility analyses are performed by decision tree method. The AUC (Area Under Curve) values for ROC (Receiver-Operating Characteristics) curves are calculated as 0.942 for the landslide susceptibility model obtained from the decision tree analysis. According to the AUC values, the decision tree analysis presents a considerable performance. As a result of the present study, it may be concluded that the decision tree method presents promising results for the regional landslide susceptibility assessment. However, the technique should be studied for different landslide-prone areas and compared with other prediction techniques such as logistic regression, artificial neural networks, fuzzy approaches, etc.

  6. Analysis of decision alternatives of the deep borehole filter restoration problem

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abdildin, Yerkin G.; Abbas, Ali E.

    2016-01-01

    The energy problem is one of the biggest challenges facing the world in the 21st century. The nuclear energy is the fastest-growing contributor to the world energy and uranium mining is the primary step in its chain. One of the fundamental problems in the uranium extraction industry is the deep borehole filter restoration problem. This decision problem is very complex due to multiple objectives and various uncertainties. Besides the improvement of uranium production, the decision makers often need to meet internationally recognized standards (ISO 14001) of labor protection, safety measures, and preservation of environment. The problem can be simplified by constructing the multiattribute utility function, but the choice of the appropriate functional form requires the practical evaluation of different methods. In present work, we evaluate the alternatives of this complex problem by two distinct approaches for analyzing decision problems. The decision maker and the assessor is a Deputy Director General of a transnational corporation. - Highlights: • Analyzes 5 borehole recovery methods across the 4 most important attributes (criteria). • Considers financial, technological, environmental, and safety factors. • Compares two decision analysis approaches and the profit analysis. • Illustrates the assessments of the decision maker's preferences. • Determines that the assumption of independence of attributes yields imprecise recommendations.

  7. Nature and extent of lava-flow aquifers beneath Pahute Mesa, Nevada Test Site

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Prothro, L.B.; Drellack, S.L. Jr.

    1997-09-01

    Work is currently underway within the Underground Test Area subproject of the US Department of Energy/Nevada Operations Office Environmental Restoration Program to develop corrective action plans in support of the overall corrective action strategy for the Nevada Test Site as established in the Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order (FFACO, 1996). A closure plan is currently being developed for Pahute Mesa, which has been identified in the FFACO as consisting of the Western and Central Pahute Mesa Corrective Action Units. Part of this effort requires that hydrogeologic data be compiled for inclusion in a regional model that will be used to predict a contaminant boundary for these Corrective Action Units. Hydrogeologic maps have been prepared for use in the model to define the nature and extent of aquifers and confining units that might influence the flow of contaminated groundwater from underground nuclear tests conducted at Pahute Mesa. Much of the groundwater flow beneath Pahute Mesa occurs within lava-flow aquifers. An understanding of the distribution and hydraulic character of these important hydrogeologic units is necessary to accurately model groundwater flow beneath Pahute Mesa. This report summarizes the results of a study by Bechtel Nevada geologists to better define the hydrogeology of lava-flow aquifers at Pahute Mesa. The purpose of this study was twofold: (1) aid in the development of the hydrostratigraphic framework for Pahute Mesa, and (2) provide information on the distribution and hydraulic character of lava-flow aquifers beneath Pahute Mesa for more accurate computer modeling of the Western and Central Pahute Mesa Corrective Action Units.

  8. Shaping the Conversation: A Secondary Analysis of Reproductive Decision-Making among Black Mothers with HIV

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ndidiamaka N. Amutah

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this qualitative secondary data analysis is to examine the major influencers on mothers with HIV in their childbearing decisions, as well as how those influencers shape conversations with clinicians and health-care providers regarding HIV treatment and prevention. The original study gained insight into the reproductive decision-making of mothers with HIV. By analyzing a subsample of 15 interviews from an original cohort of 25 participants in the earlier study, three major themes were identified as follows: (1 family members, not health-care providers, influence reproductive decisions; (2 negative attitudes toward subsequent pregnancies are mainly due to HIV transmission; and (3 birth control decisions were predominately supported by family members, while health-care providers were not consulted.

  9. Shaping the Conversation: A Secondary Analysis of Reproductive Decision-Making Among Black Mothers with HIV.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amutah, Ndidiamaka N; Gifuni, Jacqueline; Wesley, Yvonne

    2016-01-01

    The purpose of this qualitative secondary data analysis is to examine the major influencers on mothers with HIV in their childbearing decisions, as well as how those influencers shape conversations with clinicians and health-care providers regarding HIV treatment and prevention. The original study gained insight into the reproductive decision-making of mothers with HIV. By analyzing a subsample of 15 interviews from an original cohort of 25 participants in the earlier study, three major themes were identified as follows: (1) family members, not health-care providers, influence reproductive decisions; (2) negative attitudes toward subsequent pregnancies are mainly due to HIV transmission; and (3) birth control decisions were predominately supported by family members, while health-care providers were not consulted.

  10. Decision analysis for the exploration of gas reserves: merging todim and thor

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos Francisco Simões Gomes

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available This article approaches the problem of selecting the non-dominated alternative for the destination of the natural gas reserves in the Mexilhão field in the Santos Basin, Brazil. Major aims of the case study reported here were to create a mechanism for assisting in the process of analyzing and selecting the best options for the destination of natural gas, and to enable the decision agent to choose the investment options best aligned to the expectations and objectives observed in the company strategies. The decision analysis employed in the study made use of the TODIM method and the THOR multicriteria decision support system. The application of both demonstrated that a decision analytic framework can be extremely useful when recommending options for upstream projects, owing to the fact that it can clearly identify the most important alternatives in the face of the scenarios tested and in relation to the criteria expressed.

  11. Accelerating policy decisions to adopt haemophilus influenzae type B vaccine: a global, multivariable analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jessica C Shearer

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Adoption of new and underutilized vaccines by national immunization programs is an essential step towards reducing child mortality. Policy decisions to adopt new vaccines in high mortality countries often lag behind decisions in high-income countries. Using the case of Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib vaccine, this paper endeavors to explain these delays through the analysis of country-level economic, epidemiological, programmatic and policy-related factors, as well as the role of the Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunisation (GAVI Alliance.Data for 147 countries from 1990 to 2007 were analyzed in accelerated failure time models to identify factors that are associated with the time to decision to adopt Hib vaccine. In multivariable models that control for Gross National Income, region, and burden of Hib disease, the receipt of GAVI support speeded the time to decision by a factor of 0.37 (95% CI 0.18-0.76, or 63%. The presence of two or more neighboring country adopters accelerated decisions to adopt by a factor of 0.50 (95% CI 0.33-0.75. For each 1% increase in vaccine price, decisions to adopt are delayed by a factor of 1.02 (95% CI 1.00-1.04. Global recommendations and local studies were not associated with time to decision.This study substantiates previous findings related to vaccine price and presents new evidence to suggest that GAVI eligibility is associated with accelerated decisions to adopt Hib vaccine. The influence of neighboring country decisions was also highly significant, suggesting that approaches to support the adoption of new vaccines should consider supply- and demand-side factors.

  12. Ethical analysis to improve decision-making on health technologies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Saarni, Samuli I; Hofmann, Bjørn; Lampe, Kristian

    2008-01-01

    , and their implementation may also have significant impact on people other than the patient. These are essential considerations for health policy. The ethics model is structured around key ethical questions rather than philosophical theories, to be applicable to different cultures and usable by non-philosophers...... beyond effectiveness and costs to also considering the social, organizational and ethical implications of technologies. However, a commonly accepted method for analysing the ethical aspects of health technologies is lacking. This paper describes a model for ethical analysis of health technology...... that is easy and flexible to use in different organizational settings and cultures. The model is part of the EUnetHTA project, which focuses on the transferability of HTAs between countries. The EUnetHTA ethics model is based on the insight that the whole HTA process is value laden. It is not sufficient...

  13. A multimethod analysis of shared decision-making in hospice interdisciplinary team meetings including family caregivers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Washington, Karla T; Oliver, Debra Parker; Gage, L Ashley; Albright, David L; Demiris, George

    2016-03-01

    Much of the existing research on shared decision-making in hospice and palliative care focuses on the provider-patient dyad; little is known about shared decision-making that is inclusive of family members of patients with advanced disease. We sought to describe shared decision-making as it occurred in hospice interdisciplinary team meetings that included family caregivers as participants using video-conferencing technology. We conducted a multimethod study in which we used content and thematic analysis techniques to analyze video-recordings of hospice interdisciplinary team meetings (n = 100), individual interviews of family caregivers (n = 73) and hospice staff members (n = 78), and research field notes. Participants in the original studies from which data for this analysis were drawn were hospice family caregivers and staff members employed by one of five different community-based hospice agencies located in the Midwestern United States. Shared decision-making occurred infrequently in hospice interdisciplinary team meetings that included family caregivers. Barriers to shared decision-making included time constraints, communication skill deficits, unaddressed emotional needs, staff absences, and unclear role expectations. The hospice philosophy of care, current trends in healthcare delivery, the interdisciplinary nature of hospice teams, and the designation of a team leader/facilitator supported shared decision-making. The involvement of family caregivers in hospice interdisciplinary team meetings using video-conferencing technology creates a useful platform for shared decision-making; however, steps must be taken to transform family caregivers from meeting attendees to shared decision-makers. © The Author(s) 2015.

  14. Design Mode Analysis of Pareto Solution Set for Decision-Making Support

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Satoru Hiwa

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Decision making in engineering design problems is challenging because they have multiple and conflicting criteria and complex correlation between design parameters. This study proposes a decision-making support methodology named design mode analysis, which consists of data clustering and principal component analysis (PCA. A design mode is indicated by the eigenvector obtained by PCA and reveals the dominant design parameters in a given dataset. The proposed method is a general framework to obtain the design modes from high-dimensional and large datasets. The effectiveness of the proposed method is verified on the conceptual design problem of the hybrid rocket engine.

  15. Decision Analysis of Advertising and Price for Bilateral Competing Supply Chain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cheng-Tang Zhang

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The outcome of centralized equilibrium, prisoner's dilemma equilibrium, and decentralized equilibrium under different decision models has been provided with regards to bilateral competing supply chain system, either side of which is composed of one manufacturer and one retailer. Theoretical analysis indicates a positive correlation between price and one's own advertising investment level and a negative correlation between price and the opponent's advertising investment level. Through analysis of numerical examples, the results reveal a first mover advantage that leads to prisoner's dilemma in the system as well as the impact that price and advertising competition intensity has on the supply chain's choice of decision model.

  16. An Integrated Approach with Group Decision-Making for Strategy Selection in SWOT Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    İhsan Yüksel

    2012-01-01

    The main aim of this study was to improve the analytical dimension of SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats) analysis with group decision-making, which underlines the analysis of internal and external environments that in turn, will improve the definition of corporate strategy within the strategic planning process. The main issue of the study was how to select the most appropriate strategy by taking into consideration different effects of each factor of SWOT analysis on strat...

  17. Integrating risk analysis and multi-criteria decision support under uncertainty in electricity distribution system asset management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Catrinu, M.D.; Nordgard, D.E.

    2011-01-01

    Asset managers in electricity distribution companies generally recognize the need and the challenge of adding structure and a higher degree of formal analysis into the increasingly complex asset management decisions. This implies improving the present asset management practice by making the best use of the available data and expert knowledge and by adopting new methods for risk analysis and decision support and nevertheless better ways to document the decisions made. This paper discusses methods for integrating risk analysis and multi-criteria decision support under uncertainty in electricity distribution system asset management. The focus is on how to include the different company objectives and risk analyses into a structured decision framework when deciding how to handle the physical assets of the electricity distribution network. This paper presents an illustrative example of decision support for maintenance and reinvestment strategies based, using expert knowledge, simplified risk analyses and multi-criteria decision analysis under uncertainty.

  18. Quantification of a decision-making failure probability of the accident management using cognitive analysis model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yoshida, Yoshitaka; Ohtani, Masanori; Fujita, Yushi

    2002-01-01

    In the nuclear power plant, much knowledge is acquired through probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) of a severe accident, and accident management (AM) is prepared. It is necessary to evaluate the effectiveness of AM using the decision-making failure probability of an emergency organization, operation failure probability of operators, success criteria of AM and reliability of AM equipments in PSA. However, there has been no suitable qualification method for PSA so far to obtain the decision-making failure probability, because the decision-making failure of an emergency organization treats the knowledge based error. In this work, we developed a new method for quantification of the decision-making failure probability of an emergency organization using cognitive analysis model, which decided an AM strategy, in a nuclear power plant at the severe accident, and tried to apply it to a typical pressurized water reactor (PWR) plant. As a result: (1) It could quantify the decision-making failure probability adjusted to PSA for general analysts, who do not necessarily possess professional human factors knowledge, by choosing the suitable value of a basic failure probability and an error-factor. (2) The decision-making failure probabilities of six AMs were in the range of 0.23 to 0.41 using the screening evaluation method and in the range of 0.10 to 0.19 using the detailed evaluation method as the result of trial evaluation based on severe accident analysis of a typical PWR plant, and a result of sensitivity analysis of the conservative assumption, failure probability decreased about 50%. (3) The failure probability using the screening evaluation method exceeded that using detailed evaluation method by 99% of probability theoretically, and the failure probability of AM in this study exceeded 100%. From this result, it was shown that the decision-making failure probability was more conservative than the detailed evaluation method, and the screening evaluation method satisfied

  19. Quantitative ultrasound texture analysis for clinical decision making support

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Jie Ying; Beland, Michael; Konrad, Joseph; Tuomi, Adam; Glidden, David; Grand, David; Merck, Derek

    2015-03-01

    We propose a general ultrasound (US) texture-analysis and machine-learning framework for detecting the presence of disease that is suitable for clinical application across clinicians, disease types, devices, and operators. Its stages are image selection, image filtering, ROI selection, feature parameterization, and classification. Each stage is modular and can be replaced with alternate methods. Thus, this framework is adaptable to a wide range of tasks. Our two preliminary clinical targets are hepatic steatosis and adenomyosis diagnosis. For steatosis, we collected US images from 288 patients and their pathology-determined values of steatosis (%) from biopsies. Two radiologists independently reviewed all images and identified the region of interest (ROI) most representative of the hepatic echotexture for each patient. To parameterize the images into comparable quantities, we filter the US images at multiple scales for various texture responses. For each response, we collect a histogram of pixel features within the ROI, and parameterize it as a Gaussian function using its mean, standard deviation, kurtosis, and skew to create a 36-feature vector. Our algorithm uses a support vector machine (SVM) for classification. Using a threshold of 10%, we achieved 72.81% overall accuracy, 76.18% sensitivity, and 65.96% specificity in identifying steatosis with leave-ten-out cross-validation (p<0.0001). Extending this framework to adenomyosis, we identified 38 patients with MR-confirmed findings of adenomyosis and previous US studies and 50 controls. A single rater picked the best US-image and ROI for each case. Using the same processing pipeline, we obtained 76.14% accuracy, 86.00% sensitivity, and 63.16% specificity with leave-one-out cross-validation (p<0.0001).

  20. Availability, Sustainability, and Suitability of Ground Water, Rogers Mesa, Delta County, Colorado - Types of Analyses and Data for Use in Subdivision Water-Supply Reports

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watts, Kenneth R.

    2008-01-01

    The population of Delta County, Colorado, like that in much of the Western United States, is forecast to increase substantially in the next few decades. A substantial portion of the increased population likely will reside in rural subdivisions and use residential wells for domestic water supplies. In Colorado, a subdivision developer is required to submit a water-supply plan through the county for approval by the Colorado Division of Water Resources. If the water supply is to be provided by wells, the water-supply plan must include a water-supply report. The water-supply report demonstrates the availability, sustainability, and suitability of the water supply for the proposed subdivision. During 2006, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with Delta County, Colorado, began a study to develop criteria that the Delta County Land Use Department can use to evaluate water-supply reports for proposed subdivisions. A table was prepared that lists the types of analyses and data that may be needed in a water-supply report for a water-supply plan that proposes the use of ground water. A preliminary analysis of the availability, sustainability, and suitability of the ground-water resources of Rogers Mesa, Delta County, Colorado, was prepared for a hypothetical subdivision to demonstrate hydrologic analyses and data that may be needed for water-supply reports for proposed subdivisions. Rogers Mesa is a 12-square-mile upland mesa located along the north side of the North Fork Gunnison River about 15 miles east of Delta, Colorado. The principal land use on Rogers Mesa is irrigated agriculture, with about 5,651 acres of irrigated cropland, grass pasture, and orchards. The principal source of irrigation water is surface water diverted from the North Fork Gunnison River and Leroux Creek. The estimated area of platted subdivisions on or partially on Rogers Mesa in 2007 was about 4,792 acres of which about 2,756 acres was irrigated land in 2000. The principal aquifer on Rogers

  1. MESAFace, a graphical interface to analyze the MESA output

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giannotti, M.; Wise, M.; Mohammed, A.

    2013-04-01

    MESA (Modules for Experiments in Stellar Astrophysics) has become very popular among astrophysicists as a powerful and reliable code to simulate stellar evolution. Analyzing the output data thoroughly may, however, present some challenges and be rather time-consuming. Here we describe MESAFace, a graphical and dynamical interface which provides an intuitive, efficient and quick way to analyze the MESA output. Catalogue identifier: AEOQ_v1_0 Program summary URL:http://cpc.cs.qub.ac.uk/summaries/AEOQ_v1_0.html Program obtainable from: CPC Program Library, Queen’s University, Belfast, N. Ireland Licensing provisions: Standard CPC licence, http://cpc.cs.qub.ac.uk/licence/licence.html No. of lines in distributed program, including test data, etc.: 19165 No. of bytes in distributed program, including test data, etc.: 6300592 Distribution format: tar.gz Programming language: Mathematica. Computer: Any computer capable of running Mathematica. Operating system: Any capable of running Mathematica. Tested on Linux, Mac, Windows XP, Windows 7. RAM: Recommended 2 Gigabytes or more. Supplementary material: Additional test data files are available. Classification: 1.7, 14. Nature of problem: Find a way to quickly and thoroughly analyze the output of a MESA run, including all the profiles, and have an efficient method to produce graphical representations of the data. Solution method: We created two scripts (to be run consecutively). The first one downloads all the data from a MESA run and organizes the profiles in order of age. All the files are saved as tables or arrays of tables which can then be accessed very quickly by Mathematica. The second script uses the Manipulate function to create a graphical interface which allows the user to choose what to plot from a set of menus and buttons. The information shown is updated in real time. The user can access very quickly all the data from the run under examination and visualize it with plots and tables. Unusual features: Moving the

  2. Decision and decision makers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anuta Porutiu

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available In the current economic context, decision making requires complex and multiple actions on the part of the policy makers, who are more challenged than in previous situations, due to the crisis that we are facing. Decision problems cannot be solved by focusing on manager’s own experience or intuition, but require constant adaptation of the methods used effectively in the past to new challenges. Thus, a systemic analysis and modeling of arising issues is required, resulting in the stringent use of Decision Support Systems (DSS, as a necessity in a competitive environment. DSS optimize the situation by getting a timely decision because the decision making process must acquire, process and interpret an even larger amount of data in the shortest possible time. A solution for this purpose is the artificial intelligence systems, in this case Decision Support Systems (DSS, used in a wider area due to expansion of all the new information technologies in decisionmaking processes. These substantial cyber innovations have led to a radical shift in the relationship between enterprise success and quality of decisions made by managers.

  3. Inductive Decision Tree Analysis of the Validity Rank of Construction Parameters of Innovative Gear Pump after Tooth Root Undercutting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Deptuła A.

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available The article presents an innovative use of inductive algorithm for generating the decision tree for an analysis of the rank validity parameters of construction and maintenance of the gear pump with undercut tooth. It is preventet an alternative way of generating sets of decisions and determining the hierarchy of decision variables to existing the methods of discrete optimization.

  4. Inductive Decision Tree Analysis of the Validity Rank of Construction Parameters of Innovative Gear Pump after Tooth Root Undercutting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deptuła, A.; Partyka, M. A.

    2017-02-01

    The article presents an innovative use of inductive algorithm for generating the decision tree for an analysis of the rank validity parameters of construction and maintenance of the gear pump with undercut tooth. It is preventet an alternative way of generating sets of decisions and determining the hierarchy of decision variables to existing the methods of discrete optimization.

  5. Winning at litigation through decision analysis creating and executing winning strategies in any litigation or dispute

    CERN Document Server

    Celona, John

    2016-01-01

    This book is the first in-depth guide to applying the philosophy, theory, and methods of decision analysis to creating and executing winning legal strategies. With explanations that progress from introductory to advanced and practice problems at the end of each chapter, this is a book the reader will want to use and refer to for years to come. Practicing decision analysts, operations research and management science students, attorneys and law students will find this book an invaluable addition to their knowledge and skills. John Celona has over three decades of experience in teaching and applying decision analysis. John lectures in the School of Engineering at Stanford University and is on faculty at The Stanford Center for Professional Development, the American Course on Drug Development and Regulatory Sciences, and the Academy of the American Society for Healthcare Risk Management.

  6. Using decision analysis to support proactive management of emerging infectious wildlife diseases

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grant, Evan H. Campbell; Muths, Erin L.; Katz, Rachel A.; Canessa, Stefano; Adams, Michael J.; Ballard, Jennifer R.; Berger, Lee; Briggs, Cheryl J.; Coleman, Jeremy; Gray, Matthew J.; Harris, M. Camille; Harris, Reid N.; Hossack, Blake R.; Huyvaert, Kathryn P.; Kolby, Jonathan E.; Lips, Karen R.; Lovich, Robert E.; McCallum, Hamish I.; Mendelson, Joseph R.; Nanjappa, Priya; Olson, Deanna H.; Powers, Jenny G.; Richgels, Katherine L. D.; Russell, Robin E.; Schmidt, Benedikt R.; Spitzen-van der Sluijs, Annemarieke; Watry, Mary Kay; Woodhams, Douglas C.; White, C. LeAnn

    2017-01-01

    Despite calls for improved responses to emerging infectious diseases in wildlife, management is seldom considered until a disease has been detected in affected populations. Reactive approaches may limit the potential for control and increase total response costs. An alternative, proactive management framework can identify immediate actions that reduce future impacts even before a disease is detected, and plan subsequent actions that are conditional on disease emergence. We identify four main obstacles to developing proactive management strategies for the newly discovered salamander pathogen Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans (Bsal). Given that uncertainty is a hallmark of wildlife disease management and that associated decisions are often complicated by multiple competing objectives, we advocate using decision analysis to create and evaluate trade-offs between proactive (pre-emergence) and reactive (post-emergence) management options. Policy makers and natural resource agency personnel can apply principles from decision analysis to improve strategies for countering emerging infectious diseases.

  7. Data mining approach to bipolar cognitive map development and decision analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Wen-Ran

    2002-03-01

    A data mining approach to cognitive mapping is presented based on bipolar logic, bipolar relations, and bipolar clustering. It is shown that a correlation network derived from a database can be converted to a bipolar cognitive map (or bipolar relation). A transitive, symmetric, and reflexive bipolar relation (equilibrium relation) can be used to identify focal links in decision analysis. It can also be used to cluster a set of events or itemsets into three different clusters: coalition sets, conflict sets, and harmony sets. The coalition sets are positively correlated events or itemsets; each conflict set is a negatively correlated set of two coalition subsets; and a harmony set consists of events that are both negatively and positively correlated. A cognitive map and the clusters can then be used for online decision analysis. This approach combines knowledge discovery with the views of decision makers and provides an effective means for online analytical processing (OLAP) and online analytical mining (OLAM).

  8. Modified Delphi survey for decision analysis for prophylaxis of post-radiation osteonecrosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cramer, Carl K; Epstein, Joel B; Sheps, Samuel B; Schechter, Martin T; Busser, James R

    2002-09-01

    to augment epidemiological data from the literature, assist Bayesian perspectives and a decision analytic framework for the minimization of post-radiation osteonecrosis (PRON; osteoradionecrosis) and its impacts in irradiated head and neck cancer patients. a modified Delphi process survey of 15 international clinical experts was used to identify and assess outcome data and factors related to PRON risk, extraction, and factor suitability for formal decision analysis. Clinimetric pain and function outcome scales were created and assessed for relevance to quality of life. expert opinion qualitative assessments were generally adequate and consistent between open- and close-ended items, but many quantitative (e.g. PRON risk rate) estimates were not. A research agenda advocated to validate the epidemiological database for minimization of PRON and decision analysis includes: adoption of a uniform definition of PRON, and ICD code for non-experimental databases; more detailed, consistent data reporting in articles; and quality of life studies.

  9. Using Decision Analysis to Understand the Indications for Unilateral Hand Transplantation

    Science.gov (United States)

    McClelland, Brett; Novak, Christine B.; Hanna, Steven; McCabe, Steven J.

    2016-01-01

    Background: Upper extremity transplantation has been performed to improve quality of life, the benefit which must be traded off for the risk created by life-long immunosuppression. We believe the process of decision analysis is well suited to improve our understanding of these trade-offs. Method: We created a decision tree to include a branch point to illustrate the expected recovery of useful function in the transplant, using the best estimates for utility and probability that exist. Results: Our model revealed that when the probability of achieving a good result, graded as Chen level one or two is greater than 73%, transplantation is preferred over no transplantation. The decision is sensitive to the probability of major complications and the utility of a transplanted limb with minimal function. Conclusions: The results of this analysis show that under some circumstances given a high probability of satisfactory functional recovery, unilateral hand transplantation can be justified. PMID:28149213

  10. Multi-criteria decision analysis and environmental risk assessment for nanomaterials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Linkov, Igor; Satterstrom, F. Kyle; Steevens, Jeffery; Ferguson, Elizabeth; Pleus, Richard C.

    2007-01-01

    Nanotechnology is a broad and complex discipline that holds great promise for innovations that can benefit mankind. Yet, one must not overlook the wide array of factors involved in managing nanomaterial development, ranging from the technical specifications of the material to possible adverse effects in humans. Other opportunities to evaluate benefits and risks are inherent in environmental health and safety (EHS) issues related to nanotechnology. However, there is currently no structured approach for making justifiable and transparent decisions with explicit trade-offs between the many factors that need to be taken into account. While many possible decision-making approaches exist, we believe that multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is a powerful and scientifically sound decision analytical framework for nanomaterial risk assessment and management. This paper combines state-of-the-art research in MCDA methods applicable to nanotechnology with a hypothetical case study for nanomaterial management. The example shows how MCDA application can balance societal benefits against unintended side effects and risks, and how it can also bring together multiple lines of evidence to estimate the likely toxicity and risk of nanomaterials given limited information on physical and chemical properties. The essential contribution of MCDA is to link this performance information with decision criteria and weightings elicited from scientists and managers, allowing visualization and quantification of the trade-offs involved in the decision-making process

  11. Subsurface activities and decision support systems : An analysis of the requirements for a social acceptance-motivated decision support system

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Os, Herman W.A.; Herber, Rien; Scholtens, Bert

    In this paper, we present a novel perspective on evaluating subsurface activities by increasing the role of social acceptance in the decision-making process. We use the triangle of social acceptance to structure and analyze the decision-making problem in three classes: social-political, market and

  12. Decision Analysis and Its Application to the Frequency of Containment Integrated Leakage Rate Tests

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Apostolakis, George E.; Koser, John P.; Sato, Gaku

    2004-01-01

    For nuclear utilities to become competitive in a deregulated electricity market, costs must be reduced, safety must be maintained, and interested stakeholders must remain content with the decisions being made. One way to reduce costs is to reduce the frequency of preventive maintenance and testing. However, these changes must be weighed against their impact on safety and stakeholder relations. We present a methodology that allows the evaluation of decision options using a number of objectives that include safety, economics, and stakeholder relations. First, the candidate decision options are screened to make sure that they satisfy the relevant regulatory requirements. The remaining options are evaluated using multiattribute utility theory. The results of the formal analysis include a ranking of the options according to their desirability as well as the major reasons that explain this ranking. These results are submitted to a deliberative process in which the decision makers scrutinize the results to ensure that they are meaningful. During the deliberation, new decision options may be formulated based on the insights that the formal analysis provides, as happened in the case study of this paper. This case study deals with the reduction in frequency of the containment integrated leak rate test of a boiling water reactor

  13. Global analysis of dynamical decision-making models through local computation around the hidden saddle.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laura Trotta

    Full Text Available Bistable dynamical switches are frequently encountered in mathematical modeling of biological systems because binary decisions are at the core of many cellular processes. Bistable switches present two stable steady-states, each of them corresponding to a distinct decision. In response to a transient signal, the system can flip back and forth between these two stable steady-states, switching between both decisions. Understanding which parameters and states affect this switch between stable states may shed light on the mechanisms underlying the decision-making process. Yet, answering such a question involves analyzing the global dynamical (i.e., transient behavior of a nonlinear, possibly high dimensional model. In this paper, we show how a local analysis at a particular equilibrium point of bistable systems is highly relevant to understand the global properties of the switching system. The local analysis is performed at the saddle point, an often disregarded equilibrium point of bistable models but which is shown to be a key ruler of the decision-making process. Results are illustrated on three previously published models of biological switches: two models of apoptosis, the programmed cell death and one model of long-term potentiation, a phenomenon underlying synaptic plasticity.

  14. Economic analysis for upgrade decision-making using a control system replacement example

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    De Grosbois, J.; Wichman, R.; Hepburn, G.A.; Basso, R.; Kumar, V.; Deregowska, D.

    2006-01-01

    This paper (3rd in a CNS series) provides insight on how nuclear power plants can achieve better efficiencies and reduced operations and maintenance (O and M) costs by making well-informed equipment upgrade decisions. An investment decision in a plant system upgrade will have various technical options and associated performance outcomes. These can be modelled and evaluated using economic and financial analysis methods. The economic analysis usually involves a comparison of an investment scenario versus a no-investment scenario called difference case analysis. The investment may include several scenarios due to the existence of various options, different investment timings, or desired performance results. Classical approaches, using financial tools such as net present value and internal rate of return calculations, may be used to quantify the financial benefits of the difference cases when certainty about the outcomes is assumed. When making decisions under risk, the classical approaches may be augmented with methods that consider life-cycle costs and benefits, the cost consequences of and probability of equipment failure, the timing of the replacement, and the uncertainties in estimating costs and benefits. The use of expected value and Monte Carlo simulation, among others, allow the incorporation of financial and technical uncertainty into the analysis. Finally, sensitivity analysis enables better understanding of the problem and may improve the decision and clarify the level of confidence that should be put in the outcomes. This paper illustrates the use of financial decision analysis methods for equipment replacements using a control system upgrade example. These methods may easily be generalized for other types of plant upgrades. (author)

  15. European antitrust policy 1957-2004: An analysis of Commission decisions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Carree, M.; Günster, A.; Schinkel, M.P.

    2008-01-01

    This paper provides a survey of European antitrust law enforcement since its foundation in the Treaty of Rome of 1957. We present a complete overview and statistical analysis of all 538 formal Commission decisions adopted up to 2004 under Articles 81, 82 and 86 of the European Community Treaty. We

  16. An integrated probabilistic risk analysis decision support methodology for systems with multiple state variables

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sen, P.; Tan, John K.G.; Spencer, David

    1999-01-01

    Probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) methods have been proven to be valuable in risk and reliability analysis. However, a weak link seems to exist between methods for analysing risks and those for making rational decisions. The integrated decision support system (IDSS) methodology presented in this paper attempts to address this issue in a practical manner. In consists of three phases: a PRA phase, a risk sensitivity analysis (SA) phase and an optimisation phase, which are implemented through an integrated computer software system. In the risk analysis phase the problem is analysed by the Boolean representation method (BRM), a PRA method that can deal with systems with multiple state variables and feedback loops. In the second phase the results obtained from the BRM are utilised directly to perform importance and risk SA. In the third phase, the problem is formulated as a multiple objective decision making problem in the form of multiple objective reliability optimisation. An industrial example is included. The resultant solutions of a five objective reliability optimisation are presented, on the basis of which rational decision making can be explored

  17. Fuzzy Decision Analysis for Integrated Environmental Vulnerability Assessment of the Mid-Atlantic Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liem T. Tran; C. Gregory Knight; Robert V. O' Neill; Elizabeth R. Smith; Kurt H. Riitters; James D. Wickham

    2002-01-01

    A fuzzy decision analysis method for integrating ecological indicators was developed. This was a combination of a fuzzy ranking method and the analytic hierarchy process (AHP). The method was capable of ranking ecosystems in terms of environmental conditions and suggesting cumulative impacts across a large region. Using data on land cover, population, roads, streams,...

  18. The adoption of total cost of ownership for sourcing decisions - a structural equations analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wouters, Marc; Anderson, James C.; Wynstra, Finn

    2005-01-01

    This study investigates the adoption of total cost of ownership (TCO) analysis to improve sourcing decisions. TCO can be seen as an application of activity based costing (ABC) that quantifies the costs that are involved in acquiring and using purchased goods or services. TCO supports purchasing

  19. The Influence of Social Norms in Consumer Decision Making: A Meta-Analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Melnyk, V.; Herpen, van E.; Trijp, van J.C.M.

    2010-01-01

    Although social norms can substantially impact consumer decision making, understanding of how the specification of the norm determines its impact is limited. This meta-analysis (200 independent studies, 659 effect sizes) examines how aspects of social norm specification determine the effect of norms

  20. Evaluating Psychiatric Hospital Admission Decisions for Children in Foster Care: An Optimal Classification Tree Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Snowden, Jessica A.; Leon, Scott C.; Bryant, Fred B.; Lyons, John S.

    2007-01-01

    This study explored clinical and nonclinical predictors of inpatient hospital admission decisions across a sample of children in foster care over 4 years (N = 13,245). Forty-eight percent of participants were female and the mean age was 13.4 (SD = 3.5 years). Optimal data analysis (Yarnold & Soltysik, 2005) was used to construct a nonlinear…

  1. What Satisfies Students?: Mining Student-Opinion Data with Regression and Decision Tree Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, Emily H.; Galambos, Nora

    2004-01-01

    To investigate how students' characteristics and experiences affect satisfaction, this study uses regression and decision tree analysis with the CHAID algorithm to analyze student-opinion data. A data mining approach identifies the specific aspects of students' university experience that most influence three measures of general satisfaction. The…

  2. A multi-criteria decision analysis of augmentative treatment of upper limps in persons with tetraplegia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hummel, J. Marjan; Snoek, Govert J.; van Til, Janine Astrid; van Rossum, Wouter; IJzerman, Maarten Joost

    2005-01-01

    This study supported the evaluation by a rehabilitation team of the performance of two treatment options that improve the arm-hand function in subjects with sixth cervical vertebra (C6) level Motor Group 2 tetraplegia. The analytic hierarchy process, a technique for multicriteria decision analysis,

  3. NPDES Permit for Mesa Verde National Park Water Treatment Plant in Colorado

    Science.gov (United States)

    Under NPDES permit number CO-0034462, the United States Department of the Interior, National Park Service is authorized to discharge from the Mesa Verde National Park water treatment plant, in Montezuma County, Colo.

  4. Stormwater Pollution Prevention Plan TA-60 Roads and Grounds Facility and Associated Sigma Mesa Staging Area

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sandoval, Leonard Frank [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2017-02-01

    This Stormwater Pollution Prevention Plan (SWPPP) is applicable to operations at the Technical Area -60 (TA-60) Roads and Grounds Facility and Associated Sigma Mesa Staging Area off Eniwetok Drive, in Los Alamos County, New Mexico.

  5. Combining multicriteria decision analysis, ethics and health technology assessment: applying the EVIDEM decision-making framework to growth hormone for Turner syndrome patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goetghebeur, Mireille M; Wagner, Monika; Khoury, Hanane; Rindress, Donna; Grégoire, Jean-Pierre; Deal, Cheri

    2010-04-08

    To test and further develop a healthcare policy and clinical decision support framework using growth hormone (GH) for Turner syndrome (TS) as a complex case study. The EVIDEM framework was further developed to complement the multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) Value Matrix, that includes 15 quantifiable components of decision clustered in four domains (quality of evidence, disease, intervention and economics), with a qualitative tool including six ethical and health system-related components of decision. An extensive review of the literature was performed to develop a health technology assessment report (HTA) tailored to each component of decision, and content was validated by experts. A panel of representative stakeholders then estimated the MCDA value of GH for TS in Canada by assigning weights and scores to each MCDA component of decision and then considered the impact of non-quantifiable components of decision. Applying the framework revealed significant data gaps and the importance of aligning research questions with data needs to truly inform decision. Panelists estimated the value of GH for TS at 41% of maximum value on the MCDA scale, with good agreement at the individual level (retest value 40%; ICC: 0.687) and large variation across panelists. Main contributors to this panel specific value were "Improvement of efficacy", "Disease severity" and "Quality of evidence". Ethical considerations on utility, efficiency and fairness as well as potential misuse of GH had mixed effects on the perceived value of the treatment. This framework is proposed as a pragmatic step beyond the current cost-effectiveness model, combining HTA, MCDA, values and ethics. It supports systematic consideration of all components of decision and available evidence for greater transparency. Further testing and validation is needed to build up MCDA approaches combined with pragmatic HTA in healthcare decision-making.

  6. Decision analysis for mobilizing and retrieving sludge from double-shell tanks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brothers, A.J.; Williams, N.C.; Dukelow, J.S.; Hansen, R.I.

    1997-09-01

    This decision analysis evaluates alternative technologies for the initial mobilization and retrieval of sludges in double-shell tanks (DSTs). The analysis is from the perspective of the need to move sludges from one DST to another for interim retrieval. It supports the more general decision of which technologies to use to retreive various types of DST waste. The initial analysis is from the perspective of a typical DST with 2 ft of sludge to mobilize. During the course of the analysis, it became clear that it was important to also consider sludge mobilization in support of the high-level waste (HLW) vitrification demonstration plant, and in particular the risks associated with failing to meeting the minimum order requirements for the vendor, as well as the cost of mobilization and retrieval from the HLW vitrification source tanks

  7. Econometric Analysis on Developing Decision to Promote an Investment Object of Small Business

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cristina Gabriela ZAMFIR

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Econometric applications should be used for decision making on economic issues of the day. One of the most important is access to finance sources, a vital field to the country's economic activity. Accessing funding source involves feasibility studies for decision making on opening funding. Therefore, I decided to approach applied econometrics in the feasibility studies: I avoided advanced software applications, limiting to universally accepted methodology of the World Bank and the functions for calculating Excel spreadsheet-success of a feasibility study is correctness and depth of analysis and processing raw data, not in getting and keeping a reputable software.

  8. Addressing preference heterogeneity in public health policy by combining Cluster Analysis and Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaltoft, Mette Kjer; Turner, Robin; Cunich, Michelle

    2015-01-01

    of the population in relation to the importance assigned to relevant criteria. It involves combining Cluster Analysis (CA), to generate the subgroup sets of preferences, with Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA), to provide the policy framework into which the clustered preferences are entered. We employ three......The use of subgroups based on biological-clinical and socio-demographic variables to deal with population heterogeneity is well-established in public policy. The use of subgroups based on preferences is rare, except when religion based, and controversial. If it were decided to treat subgroup...... preferences as valid determinants of public policy, a transparent analytical procedure is needed. In this proof of method study we show how public preferences could be incorporated into policy decisions in a way that respects both the multi-criterial nature of those decisions, and the heterogeneity...

  9. When do cancer patients regret their treatment decision? A path analysis of the influence of clinicians' communication styles and the match of decision-making styles on decision regret.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicolai, Jennifer; Buchholz, Angela; Seefried, Nathalie; Reuter, Katrin; Härter, Martin; Eich, Wolfgang; Bieber, Christiane

    2016-05-01

    To test the influence of physician empathy (PE), shared decision making (SDM), and the match between patients' preferred and perceived decision-making styles on patients' decision regret. Patients with breast or colon cancer (n=71) completed questionnaires immediately following (T1) and three months after a consultation (T2). Path analysis was used to examine the relationships among patient demographics, patient reports of PE, SDM, the match between preferred and perceived decision-making styles, and patient decision regret at T2. After controlling for clinician clusters, higher PE was directly associated with more SDM (β=0.43, pstyle to patients' expectations should be encouraged. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. The Success of Linear Bootstrapping Models: Decision Domain-, Expertise-, and Criterion-Specific Meta-Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaufmann, Esther; Wittmann, Werner W.

    2016-01-01

    The success of bootstrapping or replacing a human judge with a model (e.g., an equation) has been demonstrated in Paul Meehl’s (1954) seminal work and bolstered by the results of several meta-analyses. To date, however, analyses considering different types of meta-analyses as well as the potential dependence of bootstrapping success on the decision domain, the level of expertise of the human judge, and the criterion for what constitutes an accurate decision have been missing from the literature. In this study, we addressed these research gaps by conducting a meta-analysis of lens model studies. We compared the results of a traditional (bare-bones) meta-analysis with findings of a meta-analysis of the success of bootstrap models corrected for various methodological artifacts. In line with previous studies, we found that bootstrapping was more successful than human judgment. Furthermore, bootstrapping was more successful in studies with an objective decision criterion than in studies with subjective or test score criteria. We did not find clear evidence that the success of bootstrapping depended on the decision domain (e.g., education or medicine) or on the judge’s level of expertise (novice or expert). Correction of methodological artifacts increased the estimated success of bootstrapping, suggesting that previous analyses without artifact correction (i.e., traditional meta-analyses) may have underestimated the value of bootstrapping models. PMID:27327085

  11. Combining data and meta-analysis to build Bayesian networks for clinical decision support.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yet, Barbaros; Perkins, Zane B; Rasmussen, Todd E; Tai, Nigel R M; Marsh, D William R

    2014-12-01

    Complex clinical decisions require the decision maker to evaluate multiple factors that may interact with each other. Many clinical studies, however, report 'univariate' relations between a single factor and outcome. Such univariate statistics are often insufficient to provide useful support for complex clinical decisions even when they are pooled using meta-analysis. More useful decision support could be provided by evidence-based models that take the interaction between factors into account. In this paper, we propose a method of integrating the univariate results of a meta-analysis with a clinical dataset and expert knowledge to construct multivariate Bayesian network (BN) models. The technique reduces the size of the dataset needed to learn the parameters of a model of a given complexity. Supplementing the data with the meta-analysis results avoids the need to either simplify the model - ignoring some complexities of the problem - or to gather more data. The method is illustrated by a clinical case study into the prediction of the viability of severely injured lower extremities. The case study illustrates the advantages of integrating combined evidence into BN development: the BN developed using our method outperformed four different data-driven structure learning methods, and a well-known scoring model (MESS) in this domain. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  12. The need to go beyond analysis in making risk-based decisions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ahearne, J.F.

    1999-01-01

    decision-makers and their advisors have lagged in going beyond analysis in making risk-based decisions. Whether it is a case like Brent Spar here in Europe or Yucca Mountain in the United States, significant lessons can be learned on how to make decisions in democratic societies

  13. The need to go beyond analysis in making risk-based decisions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ahearne, J.F. [The Sigma XI Center, Research Triangle Park, NC (United States)

    1999-12-01

    safer systems. However, the decision-makers and their advisors have lagged in going beyond analysis in making risk-based decisions. Whether it is a case like Brent Spar here in Europe or Yucca Mountain in the United States, significant lessons can be learned on how to make decisions in democratic societies.

  14. Climate Risk Informed Decision Analysis (CRIDA): A novel practical guidance for Climate Resilient Investments and Planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeuken, Ad; Mendoza, Guillermo; Matthews, John; Ray, Patrick; Haasnoot, Marjolijn; Gilroy, Kristin; Olsen, Rolf; Kucharski, John; Stakhiv, Gene; Cushing, Janet; Brown, Casey

    2016-04-01

    over time. They are part of the Dutch adaptive planning approach Adaptive Delta Management, executed and develop by the Dutch Delta program. Both decision scaling and adaptation pathways have been piloted in studies worldwide. The objective of CRIDA is to mainstream effective climate adaptation for professional water managers. The CRIDA publication, due in april 2016, follows the generic water design planning design cycle. At each step, CRIDA describes stepwise guidance for incorporating climate robustness: problem definition, stress test, alternatives formulation and recommendation, evaluation and selection. In the presentation the origin, goal, steps and practical tools available at each step of CRIDA will be explained. In two other abstracts ("Climate Risk Informed Decision Analysis: A Hypothetical Application to the Waas Region" by Gilroy et al., "The Application of Climate Risk Informed Decision Analysis to the Ioland Water Treatment Plant in Lusaka, Zambia, by Kucharski et al.), the application of CRIDA to cases is explained

  15. Spatially explicit multi-criteria decision analysis for managing vector-borne diseases

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hongoh Valerie

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract The complex epidemiology of vector-borne diseases creates significant challenges in the design and delivery of prevention and control strategies, especially in light of rapid social and environmental changes. Spatial models for predicting disease risk based on environmental factors such as climate and landscape have been developed for a number of important vector-borne diseases. The resulting risk maps have proven value for highlighting areas for targeting public health programs. However, these methods generally only offer technical information on the spatial distribution of disease risk itself, which may be incomplete for making decisions in a complex situation. In prioritizing surveillance and intervention strategies, decision-makers often also need to consider spatially explicit information on other important dimensions, such as the regional specificity of public acceptance, population vulnerability, resource availability, intervention effectiveness, and land use. There is a need for a unified strategy for supporting public health decision making that integrates available data for assessing spatially explicit disease risk, with other criteria, to implement effective prevention and control strategies. Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA is a decision support tool that allows for the consideration of diverse quantitative and qualitative criteria using both data-driven and qualitative indicators for evaluating alternative strategies with transparency and stakeholder participation. Here we propose a MCDA-based approach to the development of geospatial models and spatially explicit decision support tools for the management of vector-borne diseases. We describe the conceptual framework that MCDA offers as well as technical considerations, approaches to implementation and expected outcomes. We conclude that MCDA is a powerful tool that offers tremendous potential for use in public health decision-making in general and vector

  16. Duopoly Market Analysis within One-Shot Decision Framework with Asymmetric Possibilistic Information

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peijun Guo

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, a newly emerging duopoly market with a short life cycle is analyzed. The partially known information of market is characterized by the possibility distribution of the parameter in the demand function. Since the life cycle of the new product is short, how many products should be produced by two rival firms is a typical one-shot decision problem. Within the one-shot decision framework, the possibilistic Cournot equilibrium is obtained for the optimal production level of each firm in a duopoly market with asymmetrical possibilistic information. The analysis results show that the proposed approaches are reasonable for one-shot decision problems, which are extensively encountered in business and economics.

  17. HOUSEHOLD DECISION ANALYSIS ON ANIMAL PROTEIN FOOD CONSUMPTION: EVIDENCE FROM D.I YOGYAKARTA PROVINCE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mujtahidah Anggriani Ummul Muzayyanah

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Food consumption pattern in Indonesia has change. Consumption of animal protein food is increasing as income increase. Animal protein foods are come from fish products and livestock products. The aim of this study is to analyze household decision on animal protein food consumption based on socioeconomics determinant of the households. Household expenditure data were used in this study. Discrete choice model is used to measure household decision in consuming these foods. Socioeconomics determinants are measured by Binary Logistic regression to know the influence of these to the household’s decision. Marginal effect value from binary logistic regression analysis showed that households tend to increase consuming animal protein food from livestock products varies from 0.5 to 6.09 times associated to socioeconomic factors of the households. Further research need to analyze nutritional status of the household’s members.

  18. Project management in mine actions using Multi-Criteria-Analysis-based decision support system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marko Mladineo

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, a Web-based Decision Support System (Web DSS, that supports humanitarian demining operations and restoration of mine-contaminated areas, is presented. The financial shortage usually triggers a need for priority setting in Project Management in Mine actions. As part of the FP7 Project TIRAMISU, a specialized Web DSS has been developed to achieve a fully transparent priority setting process. It allows stakeholders and donors to actively join the decision making process using a user-friendly and intuitive Web application. The main advantage of this Web DSS is its unique way of managing a mine action project using Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA, namely the PROMETHEE method, in order to select priorities for demining actions. The developed Web DSS allows decision makers to use several predefined scenarios (different criteria weights or to develop their own, so it allows project managers to compare different demining possibilities with ease.

  19. Using decision trees and their ensembles for analysis of NIR spectroscopic data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kucheryavskiy, Sergey V.

    Advanced machine learning methods, like convolutional neural networks and decision trees, became extremely popular in the last decade. This, first of all, is directly related to the current boom in Big data analysis, where traditional statistical methods are not efficient. According to the kaggle.......com — the most popular online resource for Big data problems and solutions — methods based on decision trees and their ensembles are most widely used for solving the problems. It can be noted that the decision trees and convolutional neural networks are not very popular in Chemometrics. One of the reasons...... for that is the landscape of the data matrix: the modern machine learning methods need number of measurements much larger than the number of variables to avoid overfitting, which is opposite to the layout of the data we usually deal with. Another drawback is a lack of interactive instruments for exploring...

  20. A decision-analysis approach for contaminated dredged material management in South Korea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hong, Gi Hoon; Kim, Suk Hyun; Suedel, Burton C; Clarke, Joan U; Kim, Jongbum

    2010-01-01

    To meet London Protocol requirements, South Korea is preparing to reduce the need for disposal of dredged material at sea. The new requirements controlling ocean disposal of dredged material pose significant challenges to the South Korean government, because the previous practice of offshore disposal of contaminated dredged material is no longer permitted. Hence, other alternatives for treating and disposing of contaminated dredged material are being evaluated and selected for implementation. A new management and decision approach is therefore needed for regulators and implementers to show what information and what decision-making processes were used to make the decision, to increase administrative transparency for such projects in the public domain. To address this need, an iterative approach was developed for dredged material management that includes the essential elements of process, people, and tools needed for successful environmental decision making. The approach has 6 steps: problem definition, developing objectives and criteria, identifying alternatives, performing the evaluation, comparing alternatives, and selecting the preferred alternative. The primary objective of the approach is to provide a systematic means of exploring contaminated dredged material management alternatives in South Korea using criteria that integrate risk with economic and stakeholder value information. The approach incorporates the desired decision-making attributes of transparency, comparative analysis, and inclusion of public input. Although it was developed for South Korea, the approach can be applied in any situation in which dredged material management alternatives are being considered to manage contaminated sediment risks.

  1. INTEGRATION OF MULTICRITERIA ANALYSIS INTO DECISION SUPPORT CONCEPT FOR URBAN ROAD INFRASTRUCTURE MANAGEMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Niksa Jajac

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Urban road infrastructure management deals with complex decision making process. There are several reasons for a complexity such as: multi-disciplinarity, lots of participants, huge quantity of information, limited budget, conflict goals and criteria. These facts indicate that decision making processes in urban road infrastructure management belong to ill-defined problems. In order to cope with such complexity and to help managers during decision making processes this research proposes an application of multicriteria methods. Therefore, a generic concept of decision support for urban road infrastructure management based on multicriteria analysis is proposed. Three multicriteria methods: AHP, SAW and PROMETHHE, in a combination with 0-1 programming are used. The main advantage of an application of multicriteria analysis is that all stakeholders could be objectively included into decision process. Therefore, setting up of criteria weights involves opinions from all stakeholders’ groups (stakeholders are divided into three characteristic groups. Evaluation of criteria importance (weights is based on three sets of opinions processed by Analytic Hierarchic Processing (AHP method. Three sets of criteria are then processed by Simple Additive Weighting (SAW method resulting in a final set of criteria weights. By using SAW method, relative importance of opinions of all three stakeholders’ groups is introduced. Collected data are then processed by PROMETHEE multicriteria methods. Proposed decision support concept is validated on the problem of improvement of one part of an urban road infrastructure system for a large urban area of town of Split. The concept is efficiently applied on several problems regarding parking garages: location selection, sub-project ranking, definition of an investment strategy.

  2. A multicriteria decision analysis model and risk assessment framework for carbon capture and storage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Humphries Choptiany, John Michael; Pelot, Ronald

    2014-09-01

    Multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) has been applied to various energy problems to incorporate a variety of qualitative and quantitative criteria, usually spanning environmental, social, engineering, and economic fields. MCDA and associated methods such as life-cycle assessments and cost-benefit analysis can also include risk analysis to address uncertainties in criteria estimates. One technology now being assessed to help mitigate climate change is carbon capture and storage (CCS). CCS is a new process that captures CO2 emissions from fossil-fueled power plants and injects them into geological reservoirs for storage. It presents a unique challenge to decisionmakers (DMs) due to its technical complexity, range of environmental, social, and economic impacts, variety of stakeholders, and long time spans. The authors have developed a risk assessment model using a MCDA approach for CCS decisions such as selecting between CO2 storage locations and choosing among different mitigation actions for reducing risks. The model includes uncertainty measures for several factors, utility curve representations of all variables, Monte Carlo simulation, and sensitivity analysis. This article uses a CCS scenario example to demonstrate the development and application of the model based on data derived from published articles and publicly available sources. The model allows high-level DMs to better understand project risks and the tradeoffs inherent in modern, complex energy decisions. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

  3. Evaluation of SOVAT: an OLAP-GIS decision support system for community health assessment data analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scotch, Matthew; Parmanto, Bambang; Monaco, Valerie

    2008-06-09

    Data analysis in community health assessment (CHA) involves the collection, integration, and analysis of large numerical and spatial data sets in order to identify health priorities. Geographic Information Systems (GIS) enable for management and analysis using spatial data, but have limitations in performing analysis of numerical data because of its traditional database architecture.On-Line Analytical Processing (OLAP) is a multidimensional datawarehouse designed to facilitate querying of large numerical data. Coupling the spatial capabilities of GIS with the numerical analysis of OLAP, might enhance CHA data analysis. OLAP-GIS systems have been developed by university researchers and corporations, yet their potential for CHA data analysis is not well understood. To evaluate the potential of an OLAP-GIS decision support system for CHA problem solving, we compared OLAP-GIS to the standard information technology (IT) currently used by many public health professionals. SOVAT, an OLAP-GIS decision support system developed at the University of Pittsburgh, was compared against current IT for data analysis for CHA. For this study, current IT was considered the combined use of SPSS and GIS ("SPSS-GIS"). Graduate students, researchers, and faculty in the health sciences at the University of Pittsburgh were recruited. Each round consisted of: an instructional video of the system being evaluated, two practice tasks, five assessment tasks, and one post-study questionnaire. Objective and subjective measurement included: task completion time, success in answering the tasks, and system satisfaction. Thirteen individuals participated. Inferential statistics were analyzed using linear mixed model analysis. SOVAT was statistically significant (alpha = .01) from SPSS-GIS for satisfaction and time (p OLAP-GIS decision support systems as a valuable tool for CHA data analysis.

  4. Evaluation of SOVAT: An OLAP-GIS decision support system for community health assessment data analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Parmanto Bambang

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Data analysis in community health assessment (CHA involves the collection, integration, and analysis of large numerical and spatial data sets in order to identify health priorities. Geographic Information Systems (GIS enable for management and analysis using spatial data, but have limitations in performing analysis of numerical data because of its traditional database architecture. On-Line Analytical Processing (OLAP is a multidimensional datawarehouse designed to facilitate querying of large numerical data. Coupling the spatial capabilities of GIS with the numerical analysis of OLAP, might enhance CHA data analysis. OLAP-GIS systems have been developed by university researchers and corporations, yet their potential for CHA data analysis is not well understood. To evaluate the potential of an OLAP-GIS decision support system for CHA problem solving, we compared OLAP-GIS to the standard information technology (IT currently used by many public health professionals. Methods SOVAT, an OLAP-GIS decision support system developed at the University of Pittsburgh, was compared against current IT for data analysis for CHA. For this study, current IT was considered the combined use of SPSS and GIS ("SPSS-GIS". Graduate students, researchers, and faculty in the health sciences at the University of Pittsburgh were recruited. Each round consisted of: an instructional video of the system being evaluated, two practice tasks, five assessment tasks, and one post-study questionnaire. Objective and subjective measurement included: task completion time, success in answering the tasks, and system satisfaction. Results Thirteen individuals participated. Inferential statistics were analyzed using linear mixed model analysis. SOVAT was statistically significant (α = .01 from SPSS-GIS for satisfaction and time (p Conclusion Using SOVAT, tasks were completed more efficiently, with a higher rate of success, and with greater satisfaction, than the

  5. Insulin resistance, subclinical left ventricular remodeling, and the obesity paradox: MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shah, Ravi V; Abbasi, Siddique A; Heydari, Bobak; Rickers, Carsten; Jacobs, David R; Wang, Lu; Kwong, Raymond Y; Bluemke, David A; Lima, Joao A C; Jerosch-Herold, Michael

    2013-04-23

    This study assessed whether impaired fasting glucose (IFG), insulin resistance, and waist-to-hip ratio (WHR) had effects on cardiac remodeling, independent of obesity, in the MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis) trial. Recent studies have suggested that central obesity and insulin resistance may be primary mediators of obesity-related cardiac remodeling independent of body mass index (BMI). We investigated 4,364 subjects without diabetes in the MESA trial. IFG (100 to 125 mg/dl) or insulin resistance (by homeostatic model assessment of insulin resistance [HOMA-IR]) and WHR were used for cardiometabolic phenotyping. Multivariate linear regression analysis was used to determine the effects of the cardiometabolic markers on left ventricular (LV) remodeling, assessed primarily through the LV mass-to-volume ratio obtained by cine cardiac magnetic resonance imaging. Individuals with IFG were more likely to be older and hypertensive, with increased prevalence of cardiometabolic risk factors regardless of BMI. In each quartile of BMI, subjects with above-median HOMA-IR, above-median WHR, or IFG had a higher LV mass-to-volume ratio (p central obesity, may play a critical role in LV remodeling independently of BMI. Copyright © 2013 American College of Cardiology Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. Nicotine replacement therapy decision based on fuzzy multi-criteria analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tarmudi, Zamali; Matmali, Norfazillah; Abdullah, Mohd Lazim

    2017-08-01

    It has been observed that Nicotine Replacement Therapy (NRT) is one of the alternatives to control and reduce smoking addiction among smokers. Since the decision to choose the best NRT alternative involves uncertainty, ambiguity factors and diverse input datasets, thus, this paper proposes a fuzzy multi-criteria analysis (FMA) to overcome these issues. It focuses on how the fuzzy approach can unify the diversity of datasets based on NRT's decision-making problem. The analysis done employed the advantage of the cost-benefit criterion to unify the mixture of dataset input. The performance matrix was utilised to derive the performance scores. An empirical example regarding the NRT's decision-making problem was employed to illustrate the proposed approach. Based on the calculations, this analytical approach was found to be highly beneficial in terms of usability. It was also very applicable and efficient in dealing with the mixture of input datasets. Hence, the decision-making process can easily be used by experts and patients who are interested to join the therapy/cessation program.

  7. Adding value in oil and gas by applying decision analysis methodologies: case history

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Marot, Nicolas [Petro Andina Resources Inc., Alberta (Canada); Francese, Gaston [Tandem Decision Solutions, Buenos Aires (Argentina)

    2008-07-01

    Petro Andina Resources Ltd. together with Tandem Decision Solutions developed a strategic long range plan applying decision analysis methodology. The objective was to build a robust and fully integrated strategic plan that accomplishes company growth goals to set the strategic directions for the long range. The stochastic methodology and the Integrated Decision Management (IDM{sup TM}) staged approach allowed the company to visualize the associated value and risk of the different strategies while achieving organizational alignment, clarity of action and confidence in the path forward. A decision team involving jointly PAR representatives and Tandem consultants was established to carry out this four month project. Discovery and framing sessions allow the team to disrupt the status quo, discuss near and far reaching ideas and gather the building blocks from which creative strategic alternatives were developed. A comprehensive stochastic valuation model was developed to assess the potential value of each strategy applying simulation tools, sensitivity analysis tools and contingency planning techniques. Final insights and results have been used to populate the final strategic plan presented to the company board providing confidence to the team, assuring that the work embodies the best available ideas, data and expertise, and that the proposed strategy was ready to be elaborated into an optimized course of action. (author)

  8. An Analytic Hierarchy Process Analysis: Application to Subscriber Retention Decisions in the Nigerian Mobile Telecommunications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adebiyi Sulaimon Olanrewaju

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The introduction of mobile number portability (MNP in the Nigerian telecommunications industry has brought a new challenge for mobile operators. This study investigates the use of Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP in customer retention decisions in the Nigerian telecommunication industry using a cross-sectional survey design. Primary data were obtained through questionnaires administered to 480 mobile telecommunications subscribers in six tertiary institutions located in Lagos State, Nigeria. These educational institutions were chosen using a multistage sampling technique. Of 438 questionnaires received from subscribers, 408 were valid. Based on this sample data an AHP model was built to assess the determinants of customer retention decisions. Next, eigen values, an eigen vector and maximum lambda (λMax were obtained using the AHP analysis for the matrices. This analysis shows that customers considered call quality as the important in the retention decision. We conclude that AHP is a meaningful tool for determining what motivates retention decisions, that can help network operators formulate effective customer retention strategies.

  9. Hydrologic Source Term Processes and Models for the Clearwater and Wineskin Tests, Rainier Mesa, Nevada National Security Site

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carle, Steven F. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

    2011-05-04

    This report describes the development, processes, and results of a hydrologic source term (HST) model for the CLEARWATER (U12q) and WINESKIN (U12r) tests located on Rainier Mesa, Nevada National Security Site, Nevada (Figure 1.1). Of the 61 underground tests (involving 62 unique detonations) conducted on Rainier Mesa (Area 12) between 1957 and 1992 (USDOE, 2015), the CLEARWATER and WINESKIN tests present many unique features that warrant a separate HST modeling effort from other Rainier Mesa tests.

  10. Parent-son decision-making about human papillomavirus vaccination: a qualitative analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexander Andreia B

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Licensed for use in males in 2009, Human Papillomavirus (HPV vaccination rates in adolescent males are extremely low. Literature on HPV vaccination focuses on females, adult males, or parents of adolescent males, without including adolescent males or the dynamics of the parent-son interaction that may influence vaccine decision-making. The purpose of this paper is to examine the decision-making process of parent-son dyads when deciding whether or not to get vaccinated against HPV. Methods Twenty-one adolescent males (ages 13–17, with no previous HPV vaccination, and their parents/guardians were recruited from adolescent primary care clinics serving low to middle income families in a large Midwestern city. Dyad members participated in separate semi-structured interviews assessing the relative role of the parent and son in the decision regarding HPV vaccination. Interviews were recorded, transcribed, and coded using inductive content analysis. Results Parents and sons focused on protection as a reason for vaccination; parents felt a need to protect their child, while sons wanted to protect their own health. Parents and sons commonly misinterpreted the information about the vaccine. Sons were concerned about an injection in the penis, while some parents and sons thought the vaccine would protect them against other sexually transmitted infections including Herpes, Gonorrhea, and HIV. Parents and sons recalled that the vaccine prevented genital warts rather than cancer. The vaccine decision-making process was rapid and dynamic, including an initial reaction to the recommendation for HPV vaccine, discussion between parent and son, and the final vaccine decision. Provider input was weighed in instances of initial disagreement. Many boys felt that this was the first health care decision that they had been involved in. Dyads which reported shared decision-making were more likely to openly communicate about sexual issues than those

  11. GPs' decision-making when prescribing medicines for breastfeeding women: Content analysis of a survey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amir Lisa H

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Many breastfeeding women seek medical care from general practitioners (GPs for various health problems and GPs may consider prescribing medicines in these consultations. Prescribing medicines to a breastfeeding mother may lead to untimely cessation of breastfeeding or a breastfeeding mother may be denied medicines due to the possible risk to her infant, both of which may lead to unwanted consequences. Information on factors governing GPs' decision-making and their views in such situations is limited. Methods GPs providing shared maternity care at the Royal Women's Hospital, Melbourne were surveyed using an anonymous postal survey to determine their knowledge, attitudes and practices on medicines and breastfeeding, in 2007/2008 (n = 640. Content analysis of their response to a question concerning decision-making about the use of medicine for a breastfeeding woman was conducted. A thematic network was constructed with basic, organising and global themes. Results 335 (52% GPs responded to the survey, and 253 (76% provided information on the last time they had to decide about the use of medicine for a breastfeeding woman. Conditions reported were mastitis (24%, other infections (24% and depressive disorders (21%. The global theme that emerged was "complexity of managing risk in prescribing for breastfeeding women". The organising themes were: certainty around decision-making; uncertainty around decision-making; need for drug information to be available, consistent and reliable; joint decision-making; the vulnerable "third party" and infant feeding decision. Decision-making is a spectrum from a straight forward decision, such as treatment of mastitis, to a complicated one requiring multiple inputs and consideration. GPs use more information seeking and collaboration in decision-making when they perceive the problem to be more complex, for example, in postnatal depression. Conclusion GPs feel that prescribing medicines for

  12. Parent-son decision-making about human papillomavirus vaccination: a qualitative analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexander, Andreia B; Stupiansky, Nathan W; Ott, Mary A; Herbenick, Debby; Reece, Michael; Zimet, Gregory D

    2012-12-14

    Licensed for use in males in 2009, Human Papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination rates in adolescent males are extremely low. Literature on HPV vaccination focuses on females, adult males, or parents of adolescent males, without including adolescent males or the dynamics of the parent-son interaction that may influence vaccine decision-making. The purpose of this paper is to examine the decision-making process of parent-son dyads when deciding whether or not to get vaccinated against HPV. Twenty-one adolescent males (ages 13-17), with no previous HPV vaccination, and their parents/guardians were recruited from adolescent primary care clinics serving low to middle income families in a large Midwestern city. Dyad members participated in separate semi-structured interviews assessing the relative role of the parent and son in the decision regarding HPV vaccination. Interviews were recorded, transcribed, and coded using inductive content analysis. Parents and sons focused on protection as a reason for vaccination; parents felt a need to protect their child, while sons wanted to protect their own health. Parents and sons commonly misinterpreted the information about the vaccine. Sons were concerned about an injection in the penis, while some parents and sons thought the vaccine would protect them against other sexually transmitted infections including Herpes, Gonorrhea, and HIV. Parents and sons recalled that the vaccine prevented genital warts rather than cancer. The vaccine decision-making process was rapid and dynamic, including an initial reaction to the recommendation for HPV vaccine, discussion between parent and son, and the final vaccine decision. Provider input was weighed in instances of initial disagreement. Many boys felt that this was the first health care decision that they had been involved in. Dyads which reported shared decision-making were more likely to openly communicate about sexual issues than those that agreed the son made the decision. Parents and sons

  13. Surgical approaches for cam femoroacetabular impingement: the use of multicriteria decision analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diaz-Ledezma, Claudio; Parvizi, Javad

    2013-08-01

    Currently, three surgical approaches are available for the treatment of cam femoroacetabular impingement (FAI), namely surgical hip dislocation (SHD), hip arthroscopy (HA), and the miniopen anterior approach of the hip (MO). Although previous systematic reviews have compared these different approaches, an overall assessment of their performance is not available. We therefore executed a multidimensional structured comparison considering the benefits, opportunities, costs, and risk (BOCR) of the different approaches using multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA). A MCDA using analytic hierarchical process (AHP) was conducted to compare SHD, HA, and MO in terms of BOCR on the basis of available evidence, institutional experience, costs, and our understanding of pathophysiology of FAI. A preclinical decision-making model was created for cam FAI to establish the surgical approach that better accomplishes our objectives regarding the surgical treatment. A total score of an alternative's utility and sensitivity analysis was established using commercially available AHP software. The AHP model based on BOCR showed that MO is the best surgical approach for cam FAI (normalized score: 0.38) followed by HA (normalized score: 0.36) and SHD (normalized score: 0.25). The sensitivity analysis showed that HA would turn into the best alternative if the variable risks account for more than 61.8% of the priority during decision-making. In any other decision-making scenario, MO remains as the best alternative. Using a recognized method for decision-making, this study provides supportive data for the use of MO approach as our preferred surgical approach for cam FAI. The latter is predominantly derived from the lower cost of this approach. Our data may be considered a proxy performance measurement for surgical approaches in cam FAI.

  14. Decision Support System Requirements Definition for Human Extravehicular Activity Based on Cognitive Work Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Matthew James; McGuire, Kerry M; Feigh, Karen M

    2017-06-01

    The design and adoption of decision support systems within complex work domains is a challenge for cognitive systems engineering (CSE) practitioners, particularly at the onset of project development. This article presents an example of applying CSE techniques to derive design requirements compatible with traditional systems engineering to guide decision support system development. Specifically, it demonstrates the requirements derivation process based on cognitive work analysis for a subset of human spaceflight operations known as extravehicular activity . The results are presented in two phases. First, a work domain analysis revealed a comprehensive set of work functions and constraints that exist in the extravehicular activity work domain. Second, a control task analysis was performed on a subset of the work functions identified by the work domain analysis to articulate the translation of subject matter states of knowledge to high-level decision support system requirements. This work emphasizes an incremental requirements specification process as a critical component of CSE analyses to better situate CSE perspectives within the early phases of traditional systems engineering design.

  15. GIS Based Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis For Cement Plant Site Selection For Cuddalore District

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chhabra, A.

    2015-12-01

    India's cement industry is a vital part of its economy, providing employment to more than a million people. On the back of growing demands, due to increased construction and infrastructural activities cement market in India is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.96 percent during the period 2014-2019. In this study, GIS-based spatial Multi Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) is used to determine the optimum and alternative sites to setup a cement plant. This technique contains a set of evaluation criteria which are quantifiable indicators of the extent to which decision objectives are realized. In intersection with available GIS (Geographical Information System) and local ancillary data, the outputs of image analysis serves as input for the multi-criteria decision making system. Moreover, the following steps were performed so as to represent the criteria in GIS layers, which underwent the GIS analysis in order to get several potential sites. Satellite imagery from LANDSAT 8 and ASTER DEM were used for the analysis. Cuddalore District in Tamil Nadu was selected as the study site as limestone mining is already being carried out in that region which meets the criteria of raw material for cement production. Several other criteria considered were land use land cover (LULC) classification (built-up area, river, forest cover, wet land, barren land, harvest land and agriculture land), slope, proximity to road, railway and drainage networks.

  16. Analysis of factors influencing decision making of Czech households when purchasing clothes and footwear

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zuzana Toufarová

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper analyses buying behaviour of Czech households on the market with footwear and cloths. It aims at factors influ, encing this behaviour, e.g. price, brand, quality, product attributes, habits, price reductions, advertisement, innovation and word-of-mauth. Primary data were obtained via survey of 727 Czech households by staff of the Department of Marketing and Trade, Mendel University of Agriculture and Forestry Brno. The paper provides results of correlation analysis and factor analysis. When making purchase decisions, households identify attributes and parameters of clothes and footwear as the most important factor. Due to factor analysis, factors were reduced into four comprehensive groups.

  17. On the suitability of fast and frugal heuristics for designing values clarification methods in patient decision aids: a critical analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pieterse, Arwen H; de Vries, Marieke

    2013-09-01

    Increasingly, patient decision aids and values clarification methods (VCMs) are being developed to support patients in making preference-sensitive health-care decisions. Many VCMs encourage extensive deliberation about options, without solid theoretical or empirical evidence showing that deliberation is advantageous. Research suggests that simple, fast and frugal heuristic decision strategies sometimes result in better judgments and decisions. Durand et al. have developed two fast and frugal heuristic-based VCMs. To critically analyse the suitability of the 'take the best' (TTB) and 'tallying' fast and frugal heuristics in the context of patient decision making. Analysis of the structural similarities between the environments in which the TTB and tallying heuristics have been proven successful and the context of patient decision making and of the potential of these heuristic decision processes to support patient decision making. The specific nature of patient preference-sensitive decision making does not seem to resemble environments in which the TTB and tallying heuristics have proven successful. Encouraging patients to consider less rather than more relevant information potentially even deteriorates their values clarification process. Values clarification methods promoting the use of more intuitive decision strategies may sometimes be more effective. Nevertheless, we strongly recommend further theoretical thinking about the expected value of such heuristics and of other more intuitive decision strategies in this context, as well as empirical assessments of the mechanisms by which inducing such decision strategies may impact the quality and outcome of values clarification. © 2011 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  18. U-Form vs. M-Form: How to Understand Decision Autonomy Under Healthcare Decentralization? Comment on "Decentralisation of Health Services in Fiji: A Decision Space Analysis".

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bustamante, Arturo Vargas

    2016-06-07

    For more than three decades healthcare decentralization has been promoted in developing countries as a way of improving the financing and delivery of public healthcare. Decision autonomy under healthcare decentralization would determine the role and scope of responsibility of local authorities. Jalal Mohammed, Nicola North, and Toni Ashton analyze decision autonomy within decentralized services in Fiji. They conclude that the narrow decision space allowed to local entities might have limited the benefits of decentralization on users and providers. To discuss the costs and benefits of healthcare decentralization this paper uses the U-form and M-form typology to further illustrate the role of decision autonomy under healthcare decentralization. This paper argues that when evaluating healthcare decentralization, it is important to determine whether the benefits from decentralization are greater than its costs. The U-form and M-form framework is proposed as a useful typology to evaluate different types of institutional arrangements under healthcare decentralization. Under this model, the more decentralized organizational form (M-form) is superior if the benefits from flexibility exceed the costs of duplication and the more centralized organizational form (U-form) is superior if the savings from economies of scale outweigh the costly decision-making process from the center to the regions. Budgetary and financial autonomy and effective mechanisms to maintain local governments accountable for their spending behavior are key decision autonomy variables that could sway the cost-benefit analysis of healthcare decentralization. © 2016 by Kerman University of Medical Sciences.

  19. Towards for Analyzing Alternatives of Interaction Design Based on Verbal Decision Analysis of User Experience

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marília Soares Mendes

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available In domains (as digital TV, smart home, and tangible interfaces that represent a new paradigm of interactivity, the decision of the most appropriate interaction design solution is a challenge. HCI researchers have promoted in their works the validation of design alternative solutions with users before producing the final solution. User experience with technology is a subject that has also gained ground in these works in order to analyze the appropriate solution(s. Following this concept, a study was accomplished under the objective of finding a better interaction solution for an application of mobile TV. Three executable applications of mobile TV prototypes were built. A Verbal Decision Analysis model was applied on the investigations for the favorite characteristics in each prototype based on the user’s experience and their intentions of use. This model led a performance of a qualitative analysis which objectified the design of a new prototype.

  20. A stochastic multicriteria model for evidence-based decision making in drug benefit-risk analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tervonen, Tommi; van Valkenhoef, Gert; Buskens, Erik; Hillege, Hans L; Postmus, Douwe

    2011-05-30

    Drug benefit-risk (BR) analysis is based on firm clinical evidence regarding various safety and efficacy outcomes. In this paper, we propose a new and more formal approach for constructing a supporting multi-criteria model that fully takes into account the evidence on efficacy and adverse drug reactions. Our approach is based on the stochastic multi-criteria acceptability analysis methodology, which allows us to compute the typical value judgments that support a decision, to quantify decision uncertainty, and to compute a comprehensive BR profile. We construct a multi-criteria model for the therapeutic group of second-generation antidepressants. We assess fluoxetine and venlafaxine together with placebo according to incidence of treatment response and three common adverse drug reactions by using data from a published study. Our model shows that there are clear trade-offs among the treatment alternatives. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  1. Extended warranties, maintenance service and lease contracts modeling and analysis for decision-making

    CERN Document Server

    Murthy, D N Prabhakar

    2014-01-01

    Serving to unify the existing literature on extended warranties, maintenance service contracts and lease contracts, this book also presents a unique perspective on the topic focussed on cost analysis and decision-making from the perspectives of the parties involved. Using a game theoretic approach together with mathematical modelling, results are presented in an integrated manner with key topics that require further research highlighted in order to serve as a starting point for researchers (engineers and statisticians) who are interested in doing further work in these areas. Designed to assist practitioners (managers, engineers, applied statisticians) who are involved with extended warranties, maintenance service contracts and lease contracts, the book provides them with the models and techniques needed for proper cost analysis and effective decision-making. The book is also suitable for use as a reference text in industrial engineering, applied statistics, operations research and management.

  2. Geology of the Horse Range Mesa quadrangle, Colorado

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cater, Fred W.; Bush, A.L.; Bell, Henry; Withington, C.F.

    1953-01-01

    The Horse Range Mesa quadrangle is one of eighteen 7 1/2-minute quadrangles covering the principal carnotite-producing area of southwestern Colorado. The geology of the quadrangles was mapped by the U.S. Geological Survey for the Atomic Energy Commission as part of a comprehensive study of carnotite deposits. The rocks exposed in the eighteen quadrangles consist of crystalline rocks of pre-Cambrian age and sedimentary rocks that range in age from late Paleozoic to Quaternary. Over much of the area the sedimentary rocks are flat lying, but in places the rocks are disrupted by high-angle faults, and northwest-trending folds. Conspicuous among the folds are large anticlines having cores of intrusive salt and gypsum. Most of the carnotite deposits are confined to the Salt Wash sandstone member of the Jurassic Morrison formation. Within this sandstone, most of the deposits are spottily distributed through an arcuate zone known as the "Uravan Mineral Belt". Individual deposits range in size from irregular masses containing only a few tons of ore to large, tabular masses containing many thousands of tons. The ore consists largely of sandstone selectively impregnated and in part replaced by uranium and vanadium minerals. Most of the deposits appear to be related to certain sedimentary strictures in sandstones of favorable composition.

  3. Mountainous Ecosystem Sensor Array (MESA): a mesh sensor network for climate change research in remote mountainous environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinson, P. W.; Neal, D.; Frome, D.; Kavanagh, K.; Davis, A.; Gessler, P. E.; Hess, H.; Holden, Z. A.; Link, T. E.; Newingham, B. A.; Smith, A. M.

    2013-12-01

    Developing sensor networks robust enough to perform unattended in the world's remote regions is critical since these regions serve as important benchmarks that lack anthropogenic influence. Paradoxically, the factors that make these remote, natural sites challenging for sensor networking are often what make them indispensable for climate change research. The MESA (Mountainous Ecosystem Sensor Array) project has faced these challenges and developed a wireless mesh sensor network across a 660 m topoclimatic gradient in a wilderness area in central Idaho. This sensor array uses advances in sensing, networking, and power supply technologies to provide near real-time synchronized data covering a suite of biophysical parameters used in ecosystem process models. The 76 sensors in the network monitor atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration, humidity, air and soil temperature, soil water content, precipitation, incoming and outgoing shortwave and longwave radiation, snow depth, wind speed and direction, and leaf wetness at synchronized time intervals ranging from two minutes to two hours and spatial scales from a few meters to two kilometers. We present our novel methods of placing sensors and network nodes above, below, and throughout the forest canopy without using meteorological towers. In addition, we explain our decision to use different forms of power (wind and solar) and the equipment we use to control and integrate power harvesting. Further, we describe our use of the network to sense and quantify its own power use. Using examples of environmental data from the project, we discuss how these data may be used to increase our understanding of the effects of climate change on ecosystem processes in mountainous environments. MESA sensor locations across a 700 m topoclimatic gradient at the University of Idaho Taylor Wilderness Research Station.

  4. Estimation of Groundwater Recharge at Pahute Mesa using the Chloride Mass-Balance Method

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cooper, Clay A [DRI; Hershey, Ronald L [DRI; Healey, John M [DRI; Lyles, Brad F [DRI

    2013-07-01

    Groundwater recharge on Pahute Mesa was estimated using the chloride mass-balance (CMB) method. This method relies on the conservative properties of chloride to trace its movement from the atmosphere as dry- and wet-deposition through the soil zone and ultimately to the saturated zone. Typically, the CMB method assumes no mixing of groundwater with different chloride concentrations; however, because groundwater is thought to flow into Pahute Mesa from valleys north of Pahute Mesa, groundwater flow rates (i.e., underflow) and chloride concentrations from Kawich Valley and Gold Flat were carefully considered. Precipitation was measured with bulk and tipping-bucket precipitation gauges installed for this study at six sites on Pahute Mesa. These data, along with historical precipitation amounts from gauges on Pahute Mesa and estimates from the PRISM model, were evaluated to estimate mean annual precipitation. Chloride deposition from the atmosphere was estimated by analyzing quarterly samples of wet- and dry-deposition for chloride in the bulk gauges and evaluating chloride wet-deposition amounts measured at other locations by the National Atmospheric Deposition Program. Mean chloride concentrations in groundwater were estimated using data from the UGTA Geochemistry Database, data from other reports, and data from samples collected from emplacement boreholes for this study. Calculations were conducted assuming both no underflow and underflow from Kawich Valley and Gold Flat. Model results estimate recharge to be 30 mm/yr with a standard deviation of 18 mm/yr on Pahute Mesa, for elevations >1800 m amsl. These estimates assume Pahute Mesa recharge mixes completely with underflow from Kawich Valley and Gold Flat. The model assumes that precipitation, chloride concentration in bulk deposition, underflow and its chloride concentration, have been constant over the length of time of recharge.

  5. A life cycle analysis approach to D and D decision-making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yuracko, K.L.; Gresalfi, M.; Yerace, P.; Krstich, M.; Gerrick, D.

    1998-05-01

    This paper describes a life cycle analysis (LCA) approach that makes decontamination and decommissioning (D and D) of US Department of Energy facilities more efficient and more responsive to the concerns of the society. With the considerable complexity of D and D projects and their attendant environmental and health consequences, projects can no longer be designed based on engineering and economic criteria alone. Using the LCA D and D approach, the evaluation of material disposition alternatives explicitly includes environmental impacts, health and safety impacts, socioeconomic impacts, and stakeholder attitudes -- in addition to engineering and economic criteria. Multi-attribute decision analysis is used to take into consideration the uncertainties and value judgments that are an important part of all material disposition decisions. Use of the LCA D and D approach should lead to more appropriate selections of material disposition pathways and a decision-making process that is both understandable and defensible. The methodology and procedures of the LCA D and D approach are outlined and illustrated by an application of the approach at the Department of Energy's West Valley Demonstration Project. Specifically, LCA was used to aid decisions on disposition of soil and concrete from the Tank Pad D and D Project. A decision tree and the Pollution Prevention/Waste Minimization Users Guide for Environmental Restoration Projects were used to identify possible alternatives for disposition of the soil and concrete. Eight alternatives encompassing source reduction, segregation, treatment, and disposal were defined for disposition of the soil; two alternatives were identified for disposition of the concrete. Preliminary results suggest that segregation and treatment are advantageous in the disposition of both the soil and the concrete. This and other recent applications illustrate the strength and ease of application of the LCA D and D approach

  6. Risk analysis for CHP decision making within the conditions of an open electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Al-Mansour, Fouad; Kozuh, Mitja

    2007-01-01

    Decision making under uncertainty is a difficult task in most areas. Investment decisions for combined heat and power production (CHP) are certainly one of the areas where it is difficult to find an optimal solution since the payback period is several years and parameters change due to different perturbing factors of economic and mostly political nature. CHP is one of the most effective measures for saving primary energy and reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. The implementation of EU directives on the promotion of cogeneration based on useful heat demand in the internal energy market will accelerate CHP installation. The expected number of small CHP installations will be very high in the near future. A quick, reliable and simple tool for economic evaluation of small CHP systems is required. Since evaluation is normally made by sophisticated economic computer models which are rather expensive, a simple point estimate economic model was developed which was later upgraded by risk methodology to give more informative results for better decision making. This paper presents a reliable computer model entitled 'Computer program for economic evaluation analysis of CHP' as a tool for analysis and economic evaluation of small CHP systems with the aim of helping the decision maker. The paper describes two methods for calculation of the sensitivity of the economic results to changes of input parameters and the uncertainty of the results: the classic/static method and the risk method. The computer program uses risk methodology by applying RISK software on an existing conventional economic model. The use of risk methodology for economic evaluation can improve decisions by incorporating all possible information (knowledge), which cannot be done in the conventional economic model due to its limitations. The methodology was tested on the case of a CHP used in a smaller hospital

  7. Demonstration of risk-based decision analysis in remedial alternative selection and design

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Evans, E.K.; Duffield, G.M.; Massmann, J.W.; Freeze, R.A.; Stephenson, D.E.

    1993-01-01

    This study demonstrates the use of risk-based decision analysis (Massmann and Freeze 1987a, 1987b) in the selection and design of an engineering alternative for groundwater remediation at a waste site at the Savannah River Site, a US Department of Energy facility in South Carolina. The investigation focuses on the remediation and closure of the H-Area Seepage Basins, an inactive disposal site that formerly received effluent water from a nearby production facility. A previous study by Duffield et al. (1992), which used risk-based decision analysis to screen a number of ground-water remediation alternatives under consideration for this site, indicated that the most attractive remedial option is ground-water extraction by wells coupled with surface water discharge of treated effluent. The aim of the present study is to demonstrate the iterative use of risk-based decision analysis throughout the design of a particular remedial alternative. In this study, we consider the interaction between two episodes of aquifer testing over a 6-year period and the refinement of a remedial extraction well system design. Using a three-dimensional ground-water flow model, this study employs (1) geostatistics and Monte Carlo techniques to simulate hydraulic conductivity as a stochastic process and (2) Bayesian updating and conditional simulation to investigate multiple phases of aquifer testing. In our evaluation of a remedial alternative, we compute probabilistic costs associated with the failure of an alternative to completely capture a simulated contaminant plume. The results of this study demonstrate the utility of risk-based decision analysis as a tool for improving the design of a remedial alternative through the course of phased data collection at a remedial site

  8. Non-compliance with a postmastectomy radiotherapy guideline: Decision tree and cause analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Razavi, Amir R; Gill, Hans; Åhlfeldt, Hans; Shahsavar, Nosrat

    2008-01-01

    Background: The guideline for postmastectomy radiotherapy (PMRT), which is prescribed to reduce recurrence of breast cancer in the chest wall and improve overall survival, is not always followed. Identifying and extracting important patterns of non-compliance are crucial in maintaining the quality of care in Oncology. Methods: Analysis of 759 patients with malignant breast cancer using decision tree induction (DTI) found patterns of non-compliance with the guideline. The PMRT guideline was us...

  9. Analysis on Dynamic Decision-Making Model of the Enterprise Technological Innovation Investment under Uncertain Environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yong Long

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Under the environment of fuzzy factors including the return of market, performance of product, and the demanding level of market, we use the method of dynamic programming and establish the model of investment decision, in technology innovation project of enterprise, based on the dynamic programming. Analysis of the influence caused by the changes of fuzzy uncertainty factors to technological innovation project investment of enterprise.

  10. Decision making in general practice: the availability and use of a specific laboratory analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fauli, Siri; Thue, Geir

    2005-01-01

    The aim of this investigation was to study the effect of general practitioners' (GP's) characteristics on two decisions: whether to have the Helicobacter pylori rapid test (HPRT) in the office laboratory and whether to use this test or a similar hospital-based serological test in a typical clinical situation described in a vignette. Discrete choice analysis with binary logit models were used to predict the probability that a general practice has the HPRT, as well as the GP's probability of using the HPRT or a similar test in this clinical situation. We found that the number of consultations per week has a positive effect on the probability of having the HPRT, indicating that the size of the practice affects the decision to have such a test in the repertoire. Furthermore, four variables significantly increased the probability of using one of the lab tests: more if located in urban practices, more by solo practitioners, more when the GP stated a high probability for H. pylori associated disease, and more when the GP had the rapid test available in the practice. In our analysis, the remuneration system is endogenous and does not have a significant effect on the two decisions. Our study demonstrates that characteristics of the GP affect the availability and use of a specific laboratory analysis.

  11. Assessing the Geographic Expression of Urban Sustainability: A Scenario Based Approach Incorporating Spatial Multicriteria Decision Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James K. Lein

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Urban sustainability involves a re-examination of urban development including environmental, social and economic policies and practices that acknowledge the role of cities in global environmental change. However, sustainability remains a broadly defined concept that has been applied to mean everything from environmental protection, social cohesion, economic growth, neighborhood design, alternative energy, and green building design. To guide sustainability initiatives and assess progress toward more sustainable development patterns this construct requires a means to place this concept into a decision-centric context where change can be evaluated and the exploitation of resources, the direction of investment, the orientation of technological development, and institutional programs can be made more consistent with future as well as present needs. In this study the problem of sustainability assessment was examined and a method that couples scenario analysis with spatial multicriteria decision analysis was introduced. The integration of a spatial multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA model for sustainable development with scenario planning resulted in an interpretation of sustainability that is more appropriate for local conditions and useful when exploring sustainability’s semantic uncertainties, particularly those alternate perspectives that influence future environments.

  12. AN ANALYSIS ON THE DECISION MODEL OF SMART PLUS INSURANCE PRODUCT PURCHASE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fitry Primadona

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The purposes of this study were 1 to analyze the decision model of Smart Plus insurance product purchase and 2 to determine the criteria, sub-criteria, and alternative priorities in Smart Plus purchase decision model. The methods utilized in the study included a survey and interview (in-depth interview by using an AHP analysis (Analytical Hierarchy Process and processing software of "Expert Choice". The result of the first analysis indicated the four marketing mixes that had been performed (Price, Product, Process, and Place; while the second one showed that the purchase of Smart Plus product is based on the factors with the level of interest as follow: benefit (36.3%, premium (35.7%, membership process (14.6%, and provider (13.4%. The result of the second analysis revealed the important sub-criteria including premium offer, additional benefits, membership card, and temporary certificate from the medical specialist.Keywords: AHP, life insurance, marketing mix, purchase decision

  13. Rough Neutrosophic Multi-Attribute Decision-Making Based on Grey Relational Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kalyan Mondal

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents rough netrosophic multiattribute decision making based on grey relational analysis. While the concept of neutrosophic sets is a powerful logic to deal with indeterminate and inconsistent data, the theory of rough neutrosophic sets is also a powerful mathematical tool to deal with incompleteness. The rating of all alternatives is expressed with the upper and lower approximation operator and the pair of neutrosophic sets which are characterized by truth-membership degree, indeterminacy-membership degree, and falsitymembership degree. Weight of each attribute is partially known to decision maker. We extend the neutrosophic grey relational analysis method to rough neutrosophic grey relational analysis method and apply it to multiattribute decision making problem. Information entropy method is used to obtain the partially known attribute weights. Accumulated geometric operator is defined to transform rough neutrosophic number (neutrosophic pair to single valued neutrosophic number. Neutrosophic grey relational coefficient is determined by using Hamming distance between each alternative to ideal rough neutrosophic estimates reliability solution and the ideal rough neutrosophic estimates un-reliability solution. Then rough neutrosophic relational degree is defined to determine the ranking order of all alternatives. Finally, a numerical example is provided to illustrate the applicability and efficiency of the proposed approach.

  14. Shared Decision-Making Models Acknowledging an Interprofessional Approach: A Theory Analysis to Inform Nursing Practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewis, Krystina B; Stacey, Dawn; Squires, Janet E; Carroll, Sandra

    2016-01-01

    Patient engagement in collaboration with health professionals is essential to deliver quality health care. A shared decision-making (SDM) approach requires that patients are involved in decisions regarding their health. SDM is expanding from the patient-physician dyad to incorporate an interprofessional perspective. Conceptual models can be used to better understand theoretical underpinnings for application in clinical practice. The aim of this article was to conduct a theory analysis of conceptual models using an interprofessional approach to SDM and discuss each model's relevance to nursing practice. Walker and Avant's theory analysis approach was used. Three conceptual models were eligible. For all models, the decision-making process was considered iterative. The development process was described for 1 model. All models were logical, parsimonious, and generalizable. One was supported by empirical testing. No model described how partnerships are enacted to achieve interprofessional SDM. Also, there was limited articulation as to how nurses' roles and contributions differ from other team members. This theory analysis highlights the need for a model that explains how partnerships among interprofessional team members are enacted to better understand the operationalization of interprofessional SDM. Implications for nursing practice at all system levels are offered and supported by the 3 models.

  15. Scenario and multiple criteria decision analysis for energy and environmental security of military and industrial installations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karvetski, Christopher W; Lambert, James H; Linkov, Igor

    2011-04-01

    Military and industrial facilities need secure and reliable power generation. Grid outages can result in cascading infrastructure failures as well as security breaches and should be avoided. Adding redundancy and increasing reliability can require additional environmental, financial, logistical, and other considerations and resources. Uncertain scenarios consisting of emergent environmental conditions, regulatory changes, growth of regional energy demands, and other concerns result in further complications. Decisions on selecting energy alternatives are made on an ad hoc basis. The present work integrates scenario analysis and multiple criteria decision analysis (MCDA) to identify combinations of impactful emergent conditions and to perform a preliminary benefits analysis of energy and environmental security investments for industrial and military installations. Application of a traditional MCDA approach would require significant stakeholder elicitations under multiple uncertain scenarios. The approach proposed in this study develops and iteratively adjusts a scoring function for investment alternatives to find the scenarios with the most significant impacts on installation security. A robust prioritization of investment alternatives can be achieved by integrating stakeholder preferences and focusing modeling and decision-analytical tools on a few key emergent conditions and scenarios. The approach is described and demonstrated for a campus of several dozen interconnected industrial buildings within a major installation. Copyright © 2010 SETAC.

  16. Effective Decision Maker-Scientist Engagement:Climate Change Vulnerability Analysis of California's Water System to Using Decision Scaling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwarz, A. M.; Ray, P.; Brown, C.; Wi, S.

    2016-12-01

    For nearly 2 years the California Department of Water Resources (CDWR) has been working with the University of Massachusetts Amherst (UMass) to evaluate climate change vulnerabilities to the California State Water Project. Working cooperatively, the team has developed tools and methods to employ a decision scaling approach to CDWR's existing water system model (CalSim-II/CalLite 3.0). This presentation will discuss how and why this partnership came to be, the co-production model the team has developed to share expertise, the new understanding of the system that has been gained through the process, and current and future efforts to influence planning and investments based on the findings of the work. This cooperative decision-maker-with-scientist engagement is unique in that CDWR has not outsourced the application of the science to their systems, and instead has worked directly with UMass researchers to develop the process, produce results, and interpret findings. Further, CDWR staff has worked with UMass researchers to present results in ways that are more useable and actionable for decision-makers. As will be shown, many of these graphics allow the team to use the science differently to improve decision making.

  17. Celebrity Health Announcements and Online Health Information Seeking: An Analysis of Angelina Jolie's Preventative Health Decision.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dean, Marleah

    2016-01-01

    On May 14, 2013, Angelina Jolie disclosed she carries BRCA1, which means she has an 87% risk of developing breast cancer during her lifetime. Jolie decided to undergo a preventative bilateral mastectomy (PBM), reducing her risk to 5%. The purpose of this study was to analyze the type of information individuals are exposed to when using the Internet to search health information regarding Jolie's decision. Qualitative content analysis revealed four main themes--information about genetics, information about a PBM, information about health care, and information about Jolie's gender identity. Broadly, the identified websites mention Jolie's high risk for developing cancer due to the genetic mutation BRCA1, describe a PBM occasionally noting reasons why she had this surgery and providing alternatives to the surgery, discuss issues related to health care services, costs, and insurances about Jolie's health decision, and portray Jolie as a sexual icon, a partner to Brad Pitt, a mother of six children, and an inspirational humanitarian. The websites also depict Jolie's health decision in positive, negative, and/or both ways. Discussion centers on how this actress' health decision impacts the public.

  18. Differential impairments underlying decision making in anorexia nervosa and bulimia nervosa: a cognitive modeling analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chan, Trista Wai Sze; Ahn, Woo-Young; Bates, John E; Busemeyer, Jerome R; Guillaume, Sebastien; Redgrave, Graham W; Danner, Unna N; Courtet, Philippe

    2014-03-01

    This study examined the underlying processes of decision-making impairments in individuals with anorexia nervosa (AN) and bulimia nervosa (BN). We deconstructed their performance on the widely used decision task, the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) into cognitive, motivational, and response processes using cognitive modeling analysis. We hypothesized that IGT performance would be characterized by impaired memory functions and heightened punishment sensitivity in AN, and by elevated sensitivity to reward as opposed to punishment in BN. We analyzed trial-by-trial data of IGT obtained from 224 individuals: 94 individuals with AN, 63 with BN, and 67 healthy comparison individuals (HC). The prospect valence learning model was used to assess cognitive, motivational, and response processes underlying IGT performance. Individuals with AN showed marginally impaired IGT performance compared to HC. Their performance was characterized by impairments in memory functions. Individuals with BN showed significantly impaired IGT performance compared to HC. They showed greater relative sensitivity to gains as opposed to losses than HC. Memory functions in AN were positively correlated with body mass index. This study identified differential impairments underlying IGT performance in AN and BN. Findings suggest that impaired decision making in AN might involve impaired memory functions. Impaired decision making in BN might involve altered reward and punishment sensitivity. Copyright © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  19. Finding the Most Preferred Decision-Making Unit in Data Envelopment Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shirin Mohammadi

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Data envelopment analysis (DEA evaluates the efficiency of the transformation of a decision-making unit’s (DMU’s inputs into its outputs. Finding the benchmarks of a DMU is one of the important purposes of DEA. The benchmarks of a DMU in DEA are obtained by solving some linear programming models. Currently, the obtained benchmarks are just found by using the information of the data of inputs and outputs without considering the decision-maker’s preferences. If the preferences of the decision-maker are available, it is very important to obtain the most preferred DMU as a benchmark of the under-assessment DMU. In this regard, we present an algorithm to find the most preferred DMU based on the utility function of decision-maker’s preferences by exploring some properties on that. The proposed method is constructed based on the projection of the gradient of the utility function on the production possibility set’s frontier.

  20. Multi-criteria decision analysis for waste management in Saharawi refugee camps

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garfi, M.; Tondelli, S.; Bonoli, A.

    2009-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to compare different waste management solutions in Saharawi refugee camps (Algeria) and to test the feasibility of a decision-making method developed to be applied in particular conditions in which environmental and social aspects must be considered. It is based on multi criteria analysis, and in particular on the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), a mathematical technique for multi-criteria decision making (Saaty, T.L., 1980. The Analytic Hierarchy Process. McGraw-Hill, New York, USA; Saaty, T.L., 1990. How to Make a Decision: The Analytic Hierarchy Process. European Journal of Operational Research; Saaty, T.L., 1994. Decision Making for Leaders: The Analytic Hierarchy Process in a Complex World. RWS Publications, Pittsburgh, PA), and on participatory approach, focusing on local community's concerns. The research compares four different waste collection and management alternatives: waste collection by using three tipper trucks, disposal and burning in an open area; waste collection by using seven dumpers and disposal in a landfill; waste collection by using seven dumpers and three tipper trucks and disposal in a landfill; waste collection by using three tipper trucks and disposal in a landfill. The results show that the second and the third solutions provide better scenarios for waste management. Furthermore, the discussion of the results points out the multidisciplinarity of the approach, and the equilibrium between social, environmental and technical impacts. This is a very important aspect in a humanitarian and environmental project, confirming the appropriateness of the chosen method.

  1. Leptin and incident cardiovascular disease: the Multi-ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, Seth S; Blaha, Michael J; Muse, Evan D; Qasim, Atif N; Reilly, Muredach P; Blumenthal, Roger S; Nasir, Khurram; Criqui, Michael H; McClelland, Robyn L; Hughes-Austin, Jan M; Allison, Matthew A

    2015-03-01

    Higher serum leptin levels have been associated with a modestly higher incidence of cardiovascular disease in studies involving mostly Caucasian men. We aimed to assess the hypothesis that higher baseline levels of serum leptin are associated with higher risk of future cardiovascular disease in a diverse cohort. The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) is a modern, community-based, ethnically-diverse, and sex-balanced prospective cohort study of US adults free from cardiovascular disease. Serum leptin was measured in an ancillary study in 2002-2005. This analysis included 1905 MESA participants with baseline leptin and incident cardiovascular event data. Leptin levels were modeled as a log-transformed continuous variable and multivariable-adjusted Cox regression was performed for the primary outcome of hard cardiovascular disease, including coronary heart disease and stroke. The median follow-up was 7.6 years (25th-75th 7.1-8.3) with 7051 and 6738 person-years of follow-up in women and men. A hard cardiovascular disease event occurred in 47 women and 63 men. The age- and ethnicity-adjusted hazard ratio estimates for a 1 standard deviation increase in ln(leptin) were 1.16 in women (95% CI 0.78-1.73, p = 0.46) and 0.91 (95% CI 0.69-1.20, p = 0.51) in men. Pooling sexes, and adjusting for sex in addition to age and ethnicity, estimates were 0.98 (95% CI 0.78-1.23, p = 0.89). With additional adjustment for cardiovascular risk factors, the results remained nonsignificant: 0.87 (95% CI 0.68-1.11, p = 0.26). In conclusion, in a modern, US prospective cohort study of multi-ethnic women and men of multi-ethnic backgrounds, leptin levels are not associated with incident cardiovascular events. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Annotated bibliography of the physical data of Rainier Mesa and Yucca Mountain

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Russell, C.E.

    1988-09-01

    Yucca Mountain, located on and adjacent to the Nevada Test Site (NTS) has been designated as the only site to undergo characterization to determine if it meets the criteria to become the Nation's first high-level nuclear waste repository. During this process, care must be taken to not compromise the site's integrity through excessive testing. In order to supplement the limited data to be gathered at Yucca Mountain, analog areas are to be considered. This annotated bibliography was compiled by the Desert Research Institute to help investigate ways in which Rainier Mesa could either be used as a supplemental repository test site or where existing Rainier Mesa data can be used either to support or refute test results from Yucca Mountain. Rainier Mesa, the location of numerous underground nuclear tests on the NTS, possesses some geologic characteristics similar to those of Yucca Mountain, which makes it a likely candidate for comparison. Almost 500 references regarding geology, hydrology, meteorology, biology, and archaeology were annotated and entered alpha-numerically into the bibliography. These references were categorized into 50 topics which are defined in Section 2 and presented in Section 3. Each reference is categorized as to whether it contains Yucca Mountain data, Rainier Mesa data, or both, and a final category consists of those reports that contain Rainier Mesa data that have already been applied to Yucca Mountain research. The annotated bibliography is presented in Section 4

  3. Selecting essential information for biosurveillance--a multi-criteria decision analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Generous, Nicholas; Margevicius, Kristen J; Taylor-McCabe, Kirsten J; Brown, Mac; Daniel, W Brent; Castro, Lauren; Hengartner, Andrea; Deshpande, Alina

    2014-01-01

    The National Strategy for Biosurveillance defines biosurveillance as "the process of gathering, integrating, interpreting, and communicating essential information related to all-hazards threats or disease activity affecting human, animal, or plant health to achieve early detection and warning, contribute to overall situational awareness of the health aspects of an incident, and to enable better decision-making at all levels." However, the strategy does not specify how "essential information" is to be identified and integrated into the current biosurveillance enterprise, or what the metrics qualify information as being "essential". The question of data stream identification and selection requires a structured methodology that can systematically evaluate the tradeoffs between the many criteria that need to be taken in account. Multi-Attribute Utility Theory, a type of multi-criteria decision analysis, can provide a well-defined, structured approach that can offer solutions to this problem. While the use of Multi-Attribute Utility Theoryas a practical method to apply formal scientific decision theoretical approaches to complex, multi-criteria problems has been demonstrated in a variety of fields, this method has never been applied to decision support in biosurveillance.We have developed a formalized decision support analytic framework that can facilitate identification of "essential information" for use in biosurveillance systems or processes and we offer this framework to the global BSV community as a tool for optimizing the BSV enterprise. To demonstrate utility, we applied the framework to the problem of evaluating data streams for use in an integrated global infectious disease surveillance system.

  4. Selecting essential information for biosurveillance--a multi-criteria decision analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicholas Generous

    Full Text Available The National Strategy for Biosurveillance defines biosurveillance as "the process of gathering, integrating, interpreting, and communicating essential information related to all-hazards threats or disease activity affecting human, animal, or plant health to achieve early detection and warning, contribute to overall situational awareness of the health aspects of an incident, and to enable better decision-making at all levels." However, the strategy does not specify how "essential information" is to be identified and integrated into the current biosurveillance enterprise, or what the metrics qualify information as being "essential". The question of data stream identification and selection requires a structured methodology that can systematically evaluate the tradeoffs between the many criteria that need to be taken in account. Multi-Attribute Utility Theory, a type of multi-criteria decision analysis, can provide a well-defined, structured approach that can offer solutions to this problem. While the use of Multi-Attribute Utility Theoryas a practical method to apply formal scientific decision theoretical approaches to complex, multi-criteria problems has been demonstrated in a variety of fields, this method has never been applied to decision support in biosurveillance.We have developed a formalized decision support analytic framework that can facilitate identification of "essential information" for use in biosurveillance systems or processes and we offer this framework to the global BSV community as a tool for optimizing the BSV enterprise. To demonstrate utility, we applied the framework to the problem of evaluating data streams for use in an integrated global infectious disease surveillance system.

  5. Selecting Essential Information for Biosurveillance—A Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Generous, Nicholas; Margevicius, Kristen J.; Taylor-McCabe, Kirsten J.; Brown, Mac; Daniel, W. Brent; Castro, Lauren; Hengartner, Andrea; Deshpande, Alina

    2014-01-01

    The National Strategy for Biosurveillancedefines biosurveillance as “the process of gathering, integrating, interpreting, and communicating essential information related to all-hazards threats or disease activity affecting human, animal, or plant health to achieve early detection and warning, contribute to overall situational awareness of the health aspects of an incident, and to enable better decision-making at all levels.” However, the strategy does not specify how “essential information” is to be identified and integrated into the current biosurveillance enterprise, or what the metrics qualify information as being “essential”. Thequestion of data stream identification and selection requires a structured methodology that can systematically evaluate the tradeoffs between the many criteria that need to be taken in account. Multi-Attribute Utility Theory, a type of multi-criteria decision analysis, can provide a well-defined, structured approach that can offer solutions to this problem. While the use of Multi-Attribute Utility Theoryas a practical method to apply formal scientific decision theoretical approaches to complex, multi-criteria problems has been demonstrated in a variety of fields, this method has never been applied to decision support in biosurveillance.We have developed a formalized decision support analytic framework that can facilitate identification of “essential information” for use in biosurveillance systems or processes and we offer this framework to the global BSV community as a tool for optimizing the BSV enterprise. To demonstrate utility, we applied the framework to the problem of evaluating data streams for use in an integrated global infectious disease surveillance system. PMID:24489748

  6. A big data analysis of the relationship between future thinking and decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thorstad, Robert; Wolff, Phillip

    2018-02-20

    We use big data methods to investigate how decision-making might depend on future sightedness (that is, on how far into the future people's thoughts about the future extend). In study 1, we establish a link between future thinking and decision-making at the population level in showing that US states with citizens having relatively far future sightedness, as reflected in their tweets, take fewer risks than citizens in states having relatively near future sightedness. In study 2, we analyze people's tweets to confirm a connection between future sightedness and decision-making at the individual level in showing that people with long future sightedness are more likely to choose larger future rewards over smaller immediate rewards. In study 3, we show that risk taking decreases with increases in future sightedness as reflected in people's tweets. The ability of future sightedness to predict decisions suggests that future sightedness is a relatively stable cognitive characteristic. This implication was supported in an analysis of tweets by over 38,000 people that showed that future sightedness has both state and trait characteristics (study 4). In study 5, we provide evidence for a potential mechanism by which future sightedness can affect decisions in showing that far future sightedness can make the future seem more connected to the present, as reflected in how people refer to the present, past, and future in their tweets over the course of several minutes. Our studies show how big data methods can be applied to naturalistic data to reveal underlying psychological properties and processes.

  7. Expert panel vs decision-analysis recommendations for postdischarge coronary angiography after myocardial infarction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuntz, K M; Tsevat, J; Weinstein, M C; Goldman, L

    1999-12-15

    Expert panels and decision-analytic techniques are increasingly used to determine the appropriateness of medical interventions, but these 2 approaches use different methods to process evidence. To compare expert panel appropriateness ratings of coronary angiography after myocardial infarction (from the time of hospital discharge to 12 weeks after infarction) with the health gains and cost-effectiveness predicted by a decision-analytic model. Comparison of the degree of importance of the clinical variables considered in expert panel appropriateness ratings vs a previously published decision-analytic model. Identification of 36 clinical scenarios from the expert panel that could be simulated by the decision-analytic model. Appropriateness score and appropriateness classification (expert panel) vs gain in quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (decision-analytic model). The most important clinical variables were similar in the 2 approaches, with the exercise tolerance test result exerting the greatest leverage on strength of recommendation for angiography. Among the expert panel clinical scenarios considered to be appropriate for coronary angiography that could be simulated in the decision-analysis model, the median (interquartile range) health gain and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio were 0.59 (0.41-0.76) QALYs and $27000 ($23000-$35000) per QALY gained, respectively. Among the clinical scenarios that expert panels considered inappropriate, the corresponding medians (interquartile ranges) were 0.24 (0.19-0.34) QALYs and $54000 ($36000-$58000) per QALY gained. The Spearman rank correlation between appropriateness score and QALY gain was 0.58 (Pappropriateness score and estimated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios was -0.66 (Pappropriateness score and both the health gain and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of coronary angiography compared with no angiography in the convalescent phase of acute myocardial infarction

  8. Multiple Criteria Decision Making by Generalized Data Envelopment Analysis Introducing Aspiration Level Method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yun, Yeboon; Arakawa, Masao; Hiroshi, Ishikawa; Nakayama, Hirotaka

    2002-01-01

    It has been proved in problems with 2-objective functions that genetic algorithms (GAs) are well utilized for generating Pareto optimal solutions, and then decision making can be easily performed on the basis of visualized Pareto optimal solutions. However, GAs are difficult to visualize Pareto optimal solutions in cases in which the number of objective function is more than 4. Hence, it is trouble some to grasp the trade-off among many objective functions, and decision makers hesitate to choose a final solution from a number of Pareto optimal solutions. In order to solve these problems, we suggest an aspiration level approach to the method using the generalized data envelopment analysis and GAs. We show that the proposed method supports decision makers to choose their desirable solution from many Pareto optimal solutions. Furthermore, it will be seen that engineering design can be effectively done by the proposed method, which makes generation of several Pareto optimal solutions close to the aspiration level and trade-off analysis easily

  9. On the Nirex MADA [Multi-Attribute Decision Analysis]. Proof of evidence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stirling, A.

    1996-01-01

    Proof of Evidence is given by an expert witness on behalf of Greenpeace Ltd as part of their submission to a Planning Inquiry in 1995 hearing the application of UK Nirex Ltd for permission to construct an underground Rock Characterisation Facility (RCF) at a site near Sellafield. The RCF is part of an investigation by Nirex into a suitable site for the disposal of radioactive waste. The evidence concerns the use by Nirex of a technique known as Multi-Attribute Decision Analysis (MADA) in support of their decision to concentrate their studies on the Sellafield site. Potentially, MADA offers a highly effective methodology for making difficult political decisions involving a mixture of technical, social and economic considerations. Its proper use, however, relies on: drawing an explicit distinction between relatively technical ''performance scores'' and wholly subjective ''importance weightings''; a clearly expressed and agreed scope for the analysis; the inclusion of a wide range of perspectives; systematic and comprehensive sensitivity testing of the implications of varying data, assumptions and value judgements; optimising the choice of option under each perspective; presenting explicit data, assumptions, transparent methodologies and accessible procedures for critical evaluation and public peer review. It is concluded that Nirex's MADA seems to be seriously deficient in relation to many of these principles. (9 references). (UK)

  10. To Spray or Not to Spray: A Decision Analysis of Coffee Berry Borer in Hawaii

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. John Woodill

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Integrated pest management strategies were adopted to combat the coffee berry borer (CBB after its arrival in Hawaii in 2010. A decision tree framework is used to model the CBB integrated pest management recommendations, for potential use by growers and to assist in developing and evaluating management strategies and policies. The model focuses on pesticide spraying (spray/no spray as the most significant pest management decision within each period over the entire crop season. The main result from the analysis suggests the most important parameter to maximize net benefit is to ensure a low initial infestation level. A second result looks at the impact of a subsidy for the cost of pesticides and shows a typical farmer receives a positive net benefit of $947.17. Sensitivity analysis of parameters checks the robustness of the model and further confirms the importance of a low initial infestation level vis-a-vis any level of subsidy. The use of a decision tree is shown to be an effective method for understanding integrated pest management strategies and solutions.

  11. [Oncological patients' decision making processes concerning their pain medication at home: a qualitative secondary analysis].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lüscher-Buffet, C; Koller, A; Schaefer, I; Spichiger, E

    2012-10-01

    Unrelieved pain affects up to 75 % of cancer patients. Possible reasons for the undertreatment of pain are, amongst others, patient-related barriers towards cancer pain management. However the way patients decide on the use of analgesics remains unclear. The purpose of this qualitative study was to explore decision-making processes of four women and four men with diverse cancers concerning their pain medications. Audiotaped protocols of the 10-week-intervention and interviews of the PEINCA-pilot study provided data for a secondary analysis. This pilot study was conducted at a comprehensive cancer centre in Germany to test the German version of a cancer pain self-management intervention to enhance oncology patients' pain self-management for the first time. The data of purposively selected patients were analysed using content analysis. The results showed that these patients were very ambivalent about their analgesic use. The need to relieve severe pain conflicted with the desire to avoid opioids at any price. Decisions were reconsidered and overturned even after good experiences with analgesics. This study seems to provide a first look into decision-making processes over 10 weeks during a self-management education. Individually tailored counselling by a professional within the education programme helped the patients adopt new attitudes towards analgesics and gradually reduce their pain levels. Previous experiences of the patients and their possible ambivalence towards analgesics should be considered in a pain therapy, and patients should be coached by professionals.

  12. Innovation and decision-making process in reverse logistics: a bibliometric analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fernando Antonio Guimarães Tenório

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available This work aimed to make a bibliometric analysis on empirical studies that focus on the reverse logistics process. Papers published in two major events of management and a production engineering were collected during the years 2007-2012. To perform the analysis assumptions were adopted as the concepts of innovation and decision-making. 43 articles were analyzed and it was found that, in most cases, organizations choose to deploy reverse logistics as a means to solving problems related to environmental laws and regulations and after its implementation, the decision-making process related to the network of companies that perform reverse logistics remains restricted to the adopter company, thus becoming a centralized decision-making process. It was also found that reverse logistics is, in most cases, an innovation in the supply chain, it provides a new way to manage and operate the return and recycling of waste products and generating competitive advantages in the form of increased net income and better picture of the organization to its partners and customers.

  13. Life support technology investment strategies for flight programs: An application of decision analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schlater, Nelson J.; Simonds, Charles H.; Ballin, Mark G.

    1993-01-01

    Applied research and technology development (R&TD) is often characterized by uncertainty, risk, and significant delays before tangible returns are obtained. Given the increased awareness of limitations in resources, effective R&TD today needs a method for up-front assessment of competing technologies to help guide technology investment decisions. Such an assessment approach must account for uncertainties in system performance parameters, mission requirements and architectures, and internal and external events influencing a development program. The methodology known as decision analysis has the potential to address these issues. It was evaluated by performing a case study assessment of alternative carbon dioxide removal technologies for NASA's proposed First Lunar Outpost program. An approach was developed that accounts for the uncertainties in each technology's cost and performance parameters as well as programmatic uncertainties such as mission architecture. Life cycle cost savings relative to a baseline, adjusted for the cost of money, was used as a figure of merit to evaluate each of the alternative carbon dioxide removal technology candidates. The methodology was found to provide a consistent decision-making strategy for development of new life support technology. The case study results provided insight that was not possible from more traditional analysis approaches.

  14. Strategic Decision-Making: Research Mapping from Exploratory Factor Analysis and Multidimensional Scaling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivano Ribeiro

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available To understand the connection between authors, concepts and theories that address strategic decision-making, in this article the citations and co-citations of works published up to 2014 were analyzed. The sample consists of 489 articles published in international periodicals included in the Web of Science-ISI Web of Knowledge database. The search was conducted using key words that enabled the identification of the highest possible number of articles on the subject in question. Through Multidimensional Scaling (MDS and Exploratory Factor Analysis (EFA, the conceptual and theoretical relationships involved in these studies were identified. The results show that from 1980 to 2014 three different factors are highlighted: the first has to do with studies on conflict; the second factor is the Top Management Team (TMT and decision-making; and the third is related to processes. More recently (2013-2014, studies on strategic decision-making are converging towards analysis of conflict and process, composition and control, with Upper Echelon Theory being maintained as the central theory in these studies. This finding is the main contribution of this article.

  15. Application of multicriteria decision analysis tools to two contaminated sediment case studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yatsalo, Boris I; Kiker, Gregory A; Kim, St Jongbum; Bridges, Todd S; Seager, Thomas P; Gardner, Kevin; Satterstrom, F Kyle; Linkov, Igor

    2007-04-01

    Environmental decision making is becoming increasingly more information intensive and complex. Our previous work shows that multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) tools offer a scientifically sound decision analytical framework for environmental management, in general, and specifically for selecting optimal sediment management alternatives. Integration of MCDA into risk assessment and sediment management may require linkage of different models and software platforms whose results may lead to somewhat different conclusions. This paper illustrates the application of 3 different MCDA methods in 2 case studies involving contaminated sediment management. These case studies are based on real sediment management problems experienced by the US Army Corps of Engineers and other stakeholders in New York/New Jersey Harbor, USA, and the Cocheco River Superfund Site in New Hampshire, USA. Our analysis shows that application of 3 different MCDA tools points to similar management solutions no matter which tool is applied. MCDA tools and approaches were constructively used to elicit the strengths and weaknesses of each method when solving the problem.

  16. Physical activity, measures of obesity, and cardiometabolic risk: the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA).

    Science.gov (United States)

    McAuley, Paul A; Chen, Haiying; Lee, Duck-Chul; Artero, Enrique Garcia; Bluemke, David A; Burke, Gregory L

    2014-05-01

    The influence of higher physical activity on the relationship between adiposity and cardiometabolic risk is not completely understood. Between 2000-2002, data were collected on 6795 Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) participants. Self-reported intentional physical activity in the lowest quartile (0-105 MET-minutes/week) was categorized as inactive and the upper three quartiles (123-37,260 MET-minutes/week) as active. Associations of body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference categories, stratified by physical activity status (inactive or active) with cardiometabolic risk factors (dyslipidemia, hypertension, upper quartile of homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance [HOMA-IR] for population, and impaired fasting glucose or diabetes) were assessed using logistic regression analysis adjusting for age, gender, race/ethnicity, and current smoking. Among obese participants, those who were physically active had reduced odds of insulin resistance (47% lower; P insulin resistance (OR [95% CI] 1.63 [1.24-2.15]) compared with the active reference group. Physical activity was inversely related to the cardiometabolic risk associated with obesity and central obesity.

  17. Integrating clinicians, knowledge and data: expert-based cooperative analysis in healthcare decision support

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    García-Alonso Carlos

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Decision support in health systems is a highly difficult task, due to the inherent complexity of the process and structures involved. Method This paper introduces a new hybrid methodology Expert-based Cooperative Analysis (EbCA, which incorporates explicit prior expert knowledge in data analysis methods, and elicits implicit or tacit expert knowledge (IK to improve decision support in healthcare systems. EbCA has been applied to two different case studies, showing its usability and versatility: 1 Bench-marking of small mental health areas based on technical efficiency estimated by EbCA-Data Envelopment Analysis (EbCA-DEA, and 2 Case-mix of schizophrenia based on functional dependency using Clustering Based on Rules (ClBR. In both cases comparisons towards classical procedures using qualitative explicit prior knowledge were made. Bayesian predictive validity measures were used for comparison with expert panels results. Overall agreement was tested by Intraclass Correlation Coefficient in case "1" and kappa in both cases. Results EbCA is a new methodology composed by 6 steps:. 1 Data collection and data preparation; 2 acquisition of "Prior Expert Knowledge" (PEK and design of the "Prior Knowledge Base" (PKB; 3 PKB-guided analysis; 4 support-interpretation tools to evaluate results and detect inconsistencies (here Implicit Knowledg -IK- might be elicited; 5 incorporation of elicited IK in PKB and repeat till a satisfactory solution; 6 post-processing results for decision support. EbCA has been useful for incorporating PEK in two different analysis methods (DEA and Clustering, applied respectively to assess technical efficiency of small mental health areas and for case-mix of schizophrenia based on functional dependency. Differences in results obtained with classical approaches were mainly related to the IK which could be elicited by using EbCA and had major implications for the decision making in both cases. Discussion This

  18. Concept of Combining Cost-Effectiveness Analysis and Budget Impact Analysis in Health Care Decision-Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yagudina, Roza Ismailovna; Kulikov, Andrey Urievich; Serpik, Vjacheslav Gennadievich; Ugrekhelidze, Dzhumber Tengizovich

    2017-09-01

    The objective of this study is to cover the ways of solving the problem of understanding the results of two key methods of pharmacoeconomic analysis - budget impact and cost-effectiveness. It is important to note that pharmacoeconomic assessment based on this evidence often has controversial character. The results of one type of analysis can characterize assessed health technology favorably, and the results of other critically. Pharmacoeconomic evidence is often a crucial part of decision-making in healthcare, that's why clear understanding of combination of this two types of analysis is highly in demand. Authors propose methodological solution of the stated problem. This model is a useful tool in making unified pharmacoeconomic report based on cost-effectiveness analysis and budget impact analysis results. Use of this model preserves the meaning and significance of each type of pharmacoeconomic analysis. Three-dimensional pharmacoeconomic model proposes full account of both types of pharmacoeconomic analyses during conclusion preparation, the formation of a single consistent pharmacoeconomic conclusion. Though further validation of a tool is needed, presented model can be interesting for the professional community. The proposed model of combining budget impact and cost-effectiveness analysis can be used by healthcare decision-makers for obtaining reliable and transparent pharmacoeconomic data. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  19. Low Decision Space Means No Decentralization in Fiji Comment on "Decentralisation of Health Services in Fiji: A Decision Space Analysis".

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faguet, Jean-Paul

    2016-06-22

    Mohammed, North, and Ashton find that decentralization in Fiji shifted health-sector workloads from tertiary hospitals to peripheral health centres, but with little transfer of administrative authority from the centre. Decision-making in five functional areas analysed remains highly centralized. They surmise that the benefits of decentralization in terms of services and outcomes will be limited. This paper invokes Faguet's (2012) model of local government responsiveness and accountability to explain why this is so - not only for Fiji, but in any country that decentralizes workloads but not the decision space of local governments. A competitive dynamic between economic and civic actors that interact to generate an open, competitive politics, which in turn produces accountable, responsive government can only occur where real power and resources have been devolved to local governments. Where local decision space is lacking, by contrast, decentralization is bound to fail because it has not really happened in the first place. © 2016 The Author(s); Published by Kerman University of Medical Sciences. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

  20. Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis for Health Care Decision Making--Emerging Good Practices: Report 2 of the ISPOR MCDA Emerging Good Practices Task Force.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marsh, Kevin; IJzerman, Maarten; Thokala, Praveen; Baltussen, Rob; Boysen, Meindert; Kaló, Zoltán; Lönngren, Thomas; Mussen, Filip; Peacock, Stuart; Watkins, John; Devlin, Nancy

    2016-01-01

    Health care decisions are complex and involve confronting trade-offs between multiple, often conflicting objectives. Using structured, explicit approaches to decisions involving multiple criteria can improve the quality of decision making. A set of techniques, known under the collective heading, multiple criteria decision analysis (MCDA), are useful for this purpose. In 2014, ISPOR established an Emerging Good Practices Task Force. The task force's first report defined MCDA, provided examples of its use in health care, described the key steps, and provided an overview of the principal methods of MCDA. This second task force report provides emerging good-practice guidance on the implementation of MCDA to support health care decisions. The report includes: a checklist to support the design, implementation and review of an MCDA; guidance to support the implementation of the checklist; the order in which the steps should be implemented; illustrates how to incorporate budget constraints into an MCDA; provides an overview of the skills and resources, including available software, required to implement MCDA; and future research directions. Copyright © 2016 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. Combining multi-criteria decision analysis and mini-health technology assessment: A funding decision-support tool for medical devices in a university hospital setting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martelli, Nicolas; Hansen, Paul; van den Brink, Hélène; Boudard, Aurélie; Cordonnier, Anne-Laure; Devaux, Capucine; Pineau, Judith; Prognon, Patrice; Borget, Isabelle

    2016-02-01

    At the hospital level, decisions about purchasing new and oftentimes expensive medical devices must take into account multiple criteria simultaneously. Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is increasingly used for health technology assessment (HTA). One of the most successful hospital-based HTA approaches is mini-HTA, of which a notable example is the Matrix4value model. To develop a funding decision-support tool combining MCDA and mini-HTA, based on Matrix4value, suitable for medical devices for individual patient use in French university hospitals - known as the IDA tool, short for 'innovative device assessment'. Criteria for assessing medical devices were identified from a literature review and a survey of 18 French university hospitals. Weights for the criteria, representing their relative importance, were derived from a survey of 25 members of a medical devices committee using an elicitation technique involving pairwise comparisons. As a test of its usefulness, the IDA tool was applied to two new drug-eluting beads (DEBs) for transcatheter arterial chemoembolization. The IDA tool comprises five criteria and weights for each of two over-arching categories: risk and value. The tool revealed that the two new DEBs conferred no additional value relative to DEBs currently available. Feedback from participating decision-makers about the IDA tool was very positive. The tool could help to promote a more structured and transparent approach to HTA decision-making in French university hospitals. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. DRUG EVALUATION AND DECISION MAKING IN CATALONIA: DEVELOPMENT AND VALIDATION OF A METHODOLOGICAL FRAMEWORK BASED ON MULTI-CRITERIA DECISION ANALYSIS (MCDA) FOR ORPHAN DRUGS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gilabert-Perramon, Antoni; Torrent-Farnell, Josep; Catalan, Arancha; Prat, Alba; Fontanet, Manel; Puig-Peiró, Ruth; Merino-Montero, Sandra; Khoury, Hanane; Goetghebeur, Mireille M; Badia, Xavier

    2017-01-01

    The aim of this study was to adapt and assess the value of a Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) framework (EVIDEM) for the evaluation of Orphan drugs in Catalonia (Catalan Health Service). The standard evaluation and decision-making procedures of CatSalut were compared with the EVIDEM methodology and contents. The EVIDEM framework was adapted to the Catalan context, focusing on the evaluation of Orphan drugs (PASFTAC program), during a Workshop with sixteen PASFTAC members. The criteria weighting was done using two different techniques (nonhierarchical and hierarchical). Reliability was assessed by re-test. The EVIDEM framework and methodology was found useful and feasible for Orphan drugs evaluation and decision making in Catalonia. All the criteria considered for the development of the CatSalut Technical Reports and decision making were considered in the framework. Nevertheless, the framework could improve the reporting of some of these criteria (i.e., "unmet needs" or "nonmedical costs"). Some Contextual criteria were removed (i.e., "Mandate and scope of healthcare system", "Environmental impact") or adapted ("population priorities and access") for CatSalut purposes. Independently of the weighting technique considered, the most important evaluation criteria identified for orphan drugs were: "disease severity", "unmet needs" and "comparative effectiveness", while the "size of the population" had the lowest relevance for decision making. Test-retest analysis showed weight consistency among techniques, supporting reliability overtime. MCDA (EVIDEM framework) could be a useful tool to complement the current evaluation methods of CatSalut, contributing to standardization and pragmatism, providing a method to tackle ethical dilemmas and facilitating discussions related to decision making.

  3. Analysis of methods of processing of expert information by optimization of administrative decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Churakov, D. Y.; Tsarkova, E. G.; Marchenko, N. D.; Grechishnikov, E. V.

    2018-03-01

    In the real operation the measure definition methodology in case of expert estimation of quality and reliability of application-oriented software products is offered. In operation methods of aggregation of expert estimates on the example of a collective choice of an instrumental control projects in case of software development of a special purpose for needs of institutions are described. Results of operation of dialogue decision making support system are given an algorithm of the decision of the task of a choice on the basis of a method of the analysis of hierarchies and also. The developed algorithm can be applied by development of expert systems to the solution of a wide class of the tasks anyway connected to a multicriteria choice.

  4. Low-Level Waste Vitrification Plant Project contracting strategy decision analysis report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Felise, P.; Phillips, J.D.

    1994-01-01

    Ten basic contracting strategies were developed after a review of past strategies that had been used at the Hanford Site, other US Department of Energy (DOE) sites, other US government agencies, and in the private sector. As applicable to the Low-Level Waste Vitrification Plant (LLWVP) Project, each strategy was described and depicted in a schedule format to assess compatibility with the Hanford Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order, al so known as the Tri-Party Agreement (Ecology et al. 1994) milestones, key decision points, and other project requirements. The-pro and con aspects of each strategy also were tabulated. Using this information as a basis, the LLWVP Project team members, along with representatives of Tank Waste Remediation System (TWRS) Engineering, TWRS Programs, and Procurement Materials Management, formed a Westinghouse Hanford Company (WHC) evaluation team to select the best strategy. Kepner-Tregoe decision analysis techniques were used in facilitated meetings to arrive at the best balanced choice

  5. Low-Level Waste Vitrification Plant Project contracting strategy decision analysis report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Felise, P.; Phillips, J.D.

    1994-10-17

    Ten basic contracting strategies were developed after a review of past strategies that had been used at the Hanford Site, other US Department of Energy (DOE) sites, other US government agencies, and in the private sector. As applicable to the Low-Level Waste Vitrification Plant (LLWVP) Project, each strategy was described and depicted in a schedule format to assess compatibility with the Hanford Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order, al so known as the Tri-Party Agreement (Ecology et al. 1994) milestones, key decision points, and other project requirements. The-pro and con aspects of each strategy also were tabulated. Using this information as a basis, the LLWVP Project team members, along with representatives of Tank Waste Remediation System (TWRS) Engineering, TWRS Programs, and Procurement Materials Management, formed a Westinghouse Hanford Company (WHC) evaluation team to select the best strategy. Kepner-Tregoe decision analysis techniques were used in facilitated meetings to arrive at the best balanced choice.

  6. Cost-effectiveness study of nitrate therapy using a decision analysis methodology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larrat, E P

    1994-04-01

    The cost-assessment technology of decision analysis was applied to isosorbide dinitrate (ISDN), the standard therapy for angina; isosorbide mononitrate (ISMO), approved mid-1992; and nitroglycerin patches to measure the effect of economics on clinical practice and administrative choices. The evaluation was conducted to illustrate the utility of this method for decision makers in various sectors of the health care system, including physicians, pharmacy benefit administrators, formulary committees, and manufacturers. Findings indicate that despite a higher unit cost for ISMO, total anticipated treatment costs with this new long-acting nitrate are lower than those associated with ISDN (28%) and nitroglycerin patch (16%) therapy in patients with stable angina, and ISMO requires less dosing titration and is associated with fewer tolerance effects.

  7. Customer Purchasing Behavior Analysis as Alternatives for Supporting In-Store Green Marketing Decision-Making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Alex Syaekhoni

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Due to increasing concerns about environmental protection, the environmental sustainability of businesses has been widely considered in the manufacturing and supply chain context. Further, its adoption has been implemented in the retail industry for marketing field, including green product promotion. This study aimed to propose a customer purchasing behavior analysis as an alternative for supporting decision-making in order to promote green products in retail stores. Hence, right-on-target marketing strategies can be implemented appropriately. The study was carried out using shopping path data collected by radio frequency identification (RFID from a large retail store in Seoul, South Korea. In addition, the store layout and its traffic were also analyzed. This method is expected to help experts providing appropriate decision alternatives. In addition, it can help retailers in order to increase product sales and achieve high levels of customer satisfaction.

  8. Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Action: developing a Multi Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA ) process for prioritization of NAMAs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sharma, Sudhir; Desgain, Denis DR; Sandbukt, Sunniva

    During recent years, Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Action (NAMA) has become a key element of mitigation negotiations in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) process. At present, NAMA is considered as a key tool to be used by de¬veloping countries to structure...... be relevant as next year countries will have to translate their mitigation contribution outlined in their INDCs submitted to UNFCCC into implementation plans. Multiple-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is a tool commonly used for decision making process, including to rank options or to short-list a limited...... number of options. This tool allows combining some criteria which are valued in monetary terms and others for which market values are not readily available in the economy.It allows the use of a full range of social, environmental, technical, economic, and financial criteria. MCDA is thus an appropriate...

  9. Path Analysis Examining Self-Efficacy and Decision-Making Performance on a Simulated Baseball Task

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hepler, Teri J.; Feltz, Deborah L.

    2012-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to examine the relationship between decision-making self-efficacy and decision-making performance in sport. Undergraduate students (N = 78) performed 10 trials of a decision-making task in baseball. Self-efficacy was measured before performing each trial. Decision-making performance was assessed by decision speed and…

  10. Decision making support of the management of technogenically contaminated territories basing on risk analysis with use of geographic information technology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yatsalo, B.I.; Demin, V.F.

    2002-01-01

    Overall questions of decision making support of the contaminated territories management on a basis of risk assessment were considered. Characteristics and possibilities of the applied geoinformation system of decision making support PRANA developed for the risk control and rehabilitation of contaminated territories are demonstrated. The PRANA system involves estimations of all fundamental characteristics of risk during analysis of results and contaminated territories management [ru

  11. Non-monetary valuation using Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis: Sensitivity of additive aggregation methods to scaling and compensation assumptions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Analytical methods for Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) support the non-monetary valuation of ecosystem services for environmental decision making. Many published case studies transform ecosystem service outcomes into a common metric and aggregate the outcomes to set land ...

  12. Decision analysis to support development of the Glen Canyon Dam long-term experimental and management plan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Runge, Michael C.; LaGory, Kirk E.; Russell, Kendra; Balsom, Janet R.; Butler, R. Alan; Coggins,, Lewis G.; Grantz, Katrina A.; Hayse, John; Hlohowskyj, Ihor; Korman, Josh; May, James E.; O'Rourke, Daniel J.; Poch, Leslie A.; Prairie, James R.; VanKuiken, Jack C.; Van Lonkhuyzen, Robert A.; Varyu, David R.; Verhaaren, Bruce T.; Veselka, Thomas D.; Williams, Nicholas T.; Wuthrich, Kelsey K.; Yackulic, Charles B.; Billerbeck, Robert P.; Knowles, Glen W.

    2016-01-07

    The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Bureau of Reclamation, National Park Service, and Argonne National Laboratory, completed a decision analysis to use in the evaluation of alternatives in the Environmental Impact Statement concerning the long-term management of water releases from Glen Canyon Dam and associated management activities. Two primary decision analysis methods, multicriteria decision analysis and the expected value of information, were used to evaluate the alternative strategies against the resource goals and to evaluate the influence of uncertainty.

  13. A portfolio decision analysis approach to support energy research and development resource allocation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kurth, Margaret; Keisler, Jeffrey M.; Bates, Matthew E.; Bridges, Todd S.; Summers, Jeffrey; Linkov, Igor

    2017-01-01

    Research sponsored by the US Department of Energy (DOE) aims to facilitate a clean and independent energy future for the nation. Strategic planning for energy research and development (R&D) can be complex and dynamic, in part due to federal budgetary constraints and volatility. Managing R&D funding to advance energy technologies, in spite of these challenges, is a crucial component of the nation's long term energy policy. This study demonstrates a portfolio decision analysis (PDA) approach to support R&D resource allocation decisions for the DOE Office of Fossil Energy's Carbon Capture and Storage R&D program. A multi-attribute value model uses technology readiness levels (TRLs) and other metrics to represent the overall objectives of the R&D program in order to evaluate alternative research portfolios given limited funding. Mathematical optimization identifies efficient funding allocations for each technology program area to maximize the multi-attribute value generated from the total budget. This is especially useful for responding to externally imposed budget changes. As the case study demonstrates, explicitly funding the most value-generating options leads to greater expected R&D programmatic value than typical strategies of equal or proportional distributions of a budget change among technology program areas. - Highlights: • Decision analysis can minimize the effect of a budget decrement on an R&D program. • Greater expected benefits are yielded by differentially funding technologies. • Budget scenario testing illustrates factors that influence value generation. • Coordinating with US DOE bridges gap between decision research and practice.

  14. Exploratory Use of Decision Tree Analysis in Classification of Outcome in Hypoxic–Ischemic Brain Injury

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thanh G. Phan

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available BackgroundPrognostication following hypoxic ischemic encephalopathy (brain injury is important for clinical management. The aim of this exploratory study is to use a decision tree model to find clinical and MRI associates of severe disability and death in this condition. We evaluate clinical model and then the added value of MRI data.MethodThe inclusion criteria were as follows: age ≥17 years, cardio-respiratory arrest, and coma on admission (2003–2011. Decision tree analysis was used to find clinical [Glasgow Coma Score (GCS, features about cardiac arrest, therapeutic hypothermia, age, and sex] and MRI (infarct volume associates of severe disability and death. We used the area under the ROC (auROC to determine accuracy of model. There were 41 (63.7% males patients having MRI imaging with the average age 51.5 ± 18.9 years old. The decision trees showed that infarct volume and age were important factors for discrimination between mild to moderate disability and severe disability and death at day 0 and day 2. The auROC for this model was 0.94 (95% CI 0.82–1.00. At day 7, GCS value was the only predictor; the auROC was 0.96 (95% CI 0.86–1.00.ConclusionOur findings provide proof of concept for further exploration of the role of MR imaging and decision tree analysis in the early prognostication of hypoxic ischemic brain injury.

  15. Decision analysis for conservation breeding: Maximizing production for reintroduction of whooping cranes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Des H.V.; Converse, Sarah J.; Gibson, Keith; Moehrenschlager, Axel; Link, William A.; Olsen, Glenn H.; Maguire, Kelly

    2011-01-01

    Captive breeding is key to management of severely endangered species, but maximizing captive production can be challenging because of poor knowledge of species breeding biology and the complexity of evaluating different management options. In the face of uncertainty and complexity, decision-analytic approaches can be used to identify optimal management options for maximizing captive production. Building decision-analytic models requires iterations of model conception, data analysis, model building and evaluation, identification of remaining uncertainty, further research and monitoring to reduce uncertainty, and integration of new data into the model. We initiated such a process to maximize captive production of the whooping crane (Grus americana), the world's most endangered crane, which is managed through captive breeding and reintroduction. We collected 15 years of captive breeding data from 3 institutions and used Bayesian analysis and model selection to identify predictors of whooping crane hatching success. The strongest predictor, and that with clear management relevance, was incubation environment. The incubation period of whooping crane eggs is split across two environments: crane nests and artificial incubators. Although artificial incubators are useful for allowing breeding pairs to produce multiple clutches, our results indicate that crane incubation is most effective at promoting hatching success. Hatching probability increased the longer an egg spent in a crane nest, from 40% hatching probability for eggs receiving 1 day of crane incubation to 95% for those receiving 30 days (time incubated in each environment varied independently of total incubation period). Because birds will lay fewer eggs when they are incubating longer, a tradeoff exists between the number of clutches produced and egg hatching probability. We developed a decision-analytic model that estimated 16 to be the optimal number of days of crane incubation needed to maximize the number of

  16. 75 FR 63488 - Submission for OMB Review; Comment Request; Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) Event...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-15

    ...; Comment Request; Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) Event Surveillance SUMMARY: Under the... valid OMB control number. Proposed Collection: Title: Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) Event... of subclinical cardiovascular disease (CVD)-- that is, atherosclerosis and other forms of CVD that...

  17. Risk Analysis and Decision-Making Software Package (1997 Version) User Manual

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chung, F.T.H.

    1999-02-11

    This manual provides instructions for using the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) risk analysis and decision making software (1997 version) developed at BDM Petroleum Technologies by BDM-Oklahoma, Inc. for DOE, under contract No. DE-AC22-94PC91OO8. This software provides petroleum producers with a simple, handy tool for exploration and production risk analysis and decision-making. It collects useful risk analysis tools in one package so that users do not have to use several programs separately. The software is simple to use, but still provides many functions. The 1997 version of the software package includes the following tools: (1) Investment risk (Gambler's ruin) analysis; (2) Monte Carlo simulation; (3) Best fit for distribution functions; (4) Sample and rank correlation; (5) Enhanced oil recovery method screening; and (6) artificial neural network. This software package is subject to change. Suggestions and comments from users are welcome and will be considered for future modifications and enhancements of the software. Please check the opening screen of the software for the current contact information. In the future, more tools will be added to this software package. This manual includes instructions on how to use the software but does not attempt to fully explain the theory and algorithms used to create it.

  18. Bridging health technology assessment (HTA) and efficient health care decision making with multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA): applying the EVIDEM framework to medicines appraisal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goetghebeur, Mireille M; Wagner, Monika; Khoury, Hanane; Levitt, Randy J; Erickson, Lonny J; Rindress, Donna

    2012-01-01

    Health care decision making is complex and requires efficient and explicit processes to ensure transparency and consistency of factors considered. To pilot an adaptable decision-making framework incorporating multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) in health technology assessment (HTA) with a pan-Canadian group of policy and clinical decision makers and researchers appraising 10 medicines covering 6 therapeutic areas. An appraisal group was convened and participants were asked to express their individual perspectives, independently of the medicines, by assigning weights to each criterion of the MCDA core model: disease severity, size of population, current practice and unmet needs, intervention outcomes (efficacy, safety, patient reported), type of health benefit, economics, and quality of evidence. Participants then assigned performance scores for each medicine using available evidence synthesized in a "by-criterion" HTA report covering each of the MCDA CORE model criteria. MCDA estimates of perceived value were calculated by combining normalized weights and scores. Feedback on the approach was collected through structured discussion. Relative weights on criteria varied widely, reflecting the diverse perspectives of participants. Scores for each criterion provided a performance measure, highlighting strengths and weaknesses of each medicine. MCDA estimates of perceived value ranged from 0.42 to 0.64 across medicines, providing comprehensive measures incorporating a large spectrum of criteria. Participants reported that the framework provided an efficient approach to systematic consideration in a pragmatic format of the multiple elements guiding decision, including criteria and values (MCDA core model) and evidence (HTA "by-criterion" report). This proof-of-concept study demonstrated the usefulness of incorporating MCDA in HTA to support transparent and systematic appraisal of health care interventions. Further research is needed to advance MCDA-based approaches to

  19. A new approach to hazardous materials transportation risk analysis: decision modeling to identify critical variables.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, Renee M; Besterfield-Sacre, Mary E

    2009-03-01

    We take a novel approach to analyzing hazardous materials transportation risk in this research. Previous studies analyzed this risk from an operations research (OR) or quantitative risk assessment (QRA) perspective by minimizing or calculating risk along a transport route. Further, even though the majority of incidents occur when containers are unloaded, the research has not focused on transportation-related activities, including container loading and unloading. In this work, we developed a decision model of a hazardous materials release during unloading using actual data and an exploratory data modeling approach. Previous studies have had a theoretical perspective in terms of identifying and advancing the key variables related to this risk, and there has not been a focus on probability and statistics-based approaches for doing this. Our decision model empirically identifies the critical variables using an exploratory methodology for a large, highly categorical database involving latent class analysis (LCA), loglinear modeling, and Bayesian networking. Our model identified the most influential variables and countermeasures for two consequences of a hazmat incident, dollar loss and release quantity, and is one of the first models to do this. The most influential variables were found to be related to the failure of the container. In addition to analyzing hazmat risk, our methodology can be used to develop data-driven models for strategic decision making in other domains involving risk.

  20. Evaluating a new marker for risk prediction: decision analysis to the rescue.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, Stuart G; Kramer, Barnett S

    2012-09-01

    In many areas of medicine risk prediction models are used to identify high-risk persons to receive treatment, with the goal of maximizing the ratio of benefits to harms. Thus there is considerable interest in evaluating markers to improve risk prediction. Many measures to evaluate a new marker for risk prediction are based solely on predictive accuracy including the odds ratio, change in the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, and net reclassification improvement. However, predictive accuracy measures do not capture important clinical implications. Decision analysis comes to the rescue by including the ratio of the anticipated harm ("cost") of a false positive to the anticipated benefit of a true positive, which is transformed into a risk threshold (T) of indifference between treatment and no treatment. A decision-analytic measure of the "value" of a new marker is the number needed to test at a particular risk threshold, denoted NNTest(T), the minimum number of marker tests per true positive needed for risk prediction to be worthwhile. If NNTest(T) is acceptable given the invasiveness and adverse consequences of the test for the new marker, the new marker is recommended for inclusion in risk prediction. We provide a simple review of the derivation and computation of NNTest(T) from risk stratification tables and compare the minimum of NNTest(T), over risk thresholds, with measures of predictive accuracy in six studies. The results illustrate the advantages of this decision-analytic approach for evaluating a new marker for risk prediction.

  1. Transdisciplinary Evaluation of Energy Scenarios for a German Village Using Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter Schmuck

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA can assist local decision processes towards selecting renewable energy systems as it is able to manage qualitative data and offers opportunities to integrate knowledge from local stakeholders. However, little experience is available regarding practical applications of MCDA in real decision processes in communities on their path towards a renewable energy supply. Within the “Bioenergy-Region Ludwigsfelde” project, an MCDA evaluation has been applied to a small village on its way to becoming a “bioenergy village”. Here, MCDA has been combined with already established tools accompanying the process to becoming a “bioenergy village”, such as planning workshops, citizens’ meetings and best-practice trips. A comprehensive set of sustainability criteria was applied aimed at addressing the questions of local actors. An emphasis was placed on social criteria that comprise the perceived values of local impacts. In general, it was observed that MCDA provides many benefits for this application context. In particular, the group weighting using the SIMOS method demonstrated good results in the process. However, for real-world applications of MCDA, the challenge of data compilation in particular must be addressed.

  2. Analysis of gender differences in destination decision-making: The case study of Zakynthos Island

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Đeri Lukrecija

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The process of tourist decision-making is heavily influenced by a number of external and internal factors, and can be interpreted only by using multidisciplinary theories and techniques in researches. The main goal of tourist s behavior analysis is to understand the motives and reasons of customer decisions during their choice of tourist destination. By getting to know the potential and existing customers, tourism companies can adjust the characteristics of their products. Higher customer satisfaction also means better the financial results. The research was conducted in the summer of 2013, through a structured questionnaire with 28 questions. The sample consists of 100 tourists, who visited the Greek island of Zakynthos as the customers of Rhapsody travel, tour operator from Belgrade, Serbia. The aim of this research is to determine the needs and motivation in the process of destination selection of tourists, who visited Zakynthos, and their comparison between genders. Data was processed with the IBM SPSS 19.0. software package for statistical research, through the Chi-Square statistical test. Results of the study showed that there are statistically significant differences only at the question categories of destination decision-making and expressing satisfaction and dissatisfaction.

  3. Contributions to risk informed decision-making. Operational risk analysis in the oil and gas industry

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Roeed, Willy

    2006-08-15

    This thesis addresses the use of risk analyses to support decision-making, to find the balance between different concerns, such as for example safety of personnel and operational costs, i.e. economic values. The focus is on the offshore oil and gas industry, but many of the discussions and conclusions are general and could also be applied to other industries. The thesis applies an understanding of risk being the combination of the two basic dimensions (a) possible consequences (outcomes) and (b) associated uncertainties. This risk concept is general, and risk analyses can be used to provide decision-making support to all kinds of decision problems. However, our main focus is on risk analyses in the operational phase, so-called operational risk analyses, and in particular evaluation of safety barrier performance, for the protection of personnel, environment and assets. Hence, the main focus in this thesis is upon risks in terms of hazardous events. The challenges in the operational phase differ from the planning phase, and many risk analyses carried out today do not reflect installation-specific information obtained in the operational phase to the extent that is wanted. There is a need for more suitable risk analysis tools, and the thesis gives some contributions to development of such tools

  4. A Descriptive Analysis of Decision Support Systems Research Between 1990 and 2003

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Arnott

    2005-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper is the first major report of a project that is investigating the theoretic foundations of decision support systems (DSS. The project was principally motivated by a concern for the direction and relevance of DSS research. The main areas of research focus are the decision and judgement theoretic base of the discipline, the research strategies used in published articles, and the professional relevance of DSS research. The project has analysed 926 DSS articles published in 14 major journals from 1990 to 2003. The findings indicate that DSS research is more dominated by positivist research than general information systems (in particular experiments, surveys, and descriptions of specific applications and systems, is heavily influenced by the work of Herbert Simon, is poorly grounded in contemporary judgement and decision-making research, and falls down in the identification of the nature of clients and users. Of great concern is the finding that DSS research has relatively low professional relevance. An overview of the direction of further analysis is presented.

  5. Application fuzzy multi-attribute decision analysis method to prioritize project success criteria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phong, Nguyen Thanh; Quyen, Nguyen Le Hoang Thuy To

    2017-11-01

    Project success is a foundation for project owner to manage and control not only for the current project but also for future potential projects in construction companies. However, identifying the key success criteria for evaluating a particular project in real practice is a challenging task. Normally, it depends on a lot of factors, such as the expectation of the project owner and stakeholders, triple constraints of the project (cost, time, quality), and company's mission, vision, and objectives. Traditional decision-making methods for measuring the project success are usually based on subjective opinions of panel experts, resulting in irrational and inappropriate decisions. Therefore, this paper introduces a multi-attribute decision analysis method (MADAM) for weighting project success criteria by using fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Process approach. It is found that this method is useful when dealing with imprecise and uncertain human judgments in evaluating project success criteria. Moreover, this research also suggests that although cost, time, and quality are three project success criteria projects, the satisfaction of project owner and acceptance of project stakeholders with the completed project criteria is the most important criteria for project success evaluation in Vietnam.

  6. New fusulinids from Lower Permian turbidites at Conglomerate Mesa, southeastern inyo Mountains, east-central California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stevens, C.H.; Stone, P.

    2009-01-01

    Seven previously unrecognized fusulinid species from Lower Permian (Wolfcampian and Leonardian) turbidites near Conglomerate Mesa in east-central California, four of which are named as new species, are here described and figured. The four new species are Schwagerina merriami, S. wildei, Parafusulina mackevetti, and Skinnerella rossi. These fusulinid species have close affinities to similar taxa in Texas and northeastern Nevada, and they are distinct from some other faunas of slightly different age in the Conglomerate Mesa area that are dominated by endemic species and other species with Eastern Klamath Mountains affinities.

  7. Padrão de identidade e qualidade do tomate (Lycopersicon esculentum Mill.) de mesa

    OpenAIRE

    Ferreira,Sila Mary Rodrigues; Freitas,Renato João Sossela de; Lazzari,Elisa Noemberg

    2004-01-01

    O valor comercial do tomate, Lycopersicon esculentum Mill., é definido pelas características de identidade e qualidade presentes no fruto que podem ser avaliadas pela classificação do produto. A presente revisão de literatura teve como objetivo descrever o padrão de identidade e qualidade do tomate de mesa, através da classificação. O tomate de mesa é classificado em grupos, subgrupos, classes e tipos. De acordo com o formato do fruto, o tomate é classificado em dois grupos: oblongo, quando o...

  8. Making Sense of Sensemaking: Requirements of a Cognitive Analysis to Support C2 Decision Support System Design

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Potter, Scott S; Elm, William C; Gualtieri, James W

    2006-01-01

    Conducting a Cognitive Analysis to adequately support a follow-on design effort for innovative decision support tools is a tall order and requires specific properties to exist in the CTA in order to be successful...

  9. Multi-criteria decision analysis of spectrum management frameworks for futuristic wireless networks: the context of developing countries

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Mfupe, Luzango P

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available that are based on the Dynamic spectrum access (DSA) technique. The approach utilises Multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) tools. The article uses a case study to evaluate dominant Dynamic spectrum management (DSM) frameworks. Finally, a sustainable DSM...

  10. Slower Perception Followed by Faster Lexical Decision in Longer Words: A Diffusion Model Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oganian, Yulia; Froehlich, Eva; Schlickeiser, Ulrike; Hofmann, Markus J; Heekeren, Hauke R; Jacobs, Arthur M

    2015-01-01

    Effects of stimulus length on reaction times (RTs) in the lexical decision task are the topic of extensive research. While slower RTs are consistently found for longer pseudo-words, a finding coined the word length effect (WLE), some studies found no effects for words, and yet others reported faster RTs for longer words. Moreover, the WLE depends on the orthographic transparency of a language, with larger effects in more transparent orthographies. Here we investigate processes underlying the WLE in lexical decision in German-English bilinguals using a diffusion model (DM) analysis, which we compared to a linear regression approach. In the DM analysis, RT-accuracy distributions are characterized using parameters that reflect latent sub-processes, in particular evidence accumulation and decision-independent perceptual encoding, instead of typical parameters such as mean RT and accuracy. The regression approach showed a decrease in RTs with length for pseudo-words, but no length effect for words. However, DM analysis revealed that the null effect for words resulted from opposing effects of length on perceptual encoding and rate of evidence accumulation. Perceptual encoding times increased with length for words and pseudo-words, whereas the rate of evidence accumulation increased with length for real words but decreased for pseudo-words. A comparison between DM parameters in German and English suggested that orthographic transparency affects perceptual encoding, whereas effects of length on evidence accumulation are likely to reflect contextual information and the increase in available perceptual evidence with length. These opposing effects may account for the inconsistent findings on WLEs.

  11. Cloud Geospatial Analysis Tools for Global-Scale Comparisons of Population Models for Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hancher, M.; Lieber, A.; Scott, L.

    2017-12-01

    The volume of satellite and other Earth data is growing rapidly. Combined with information about where people are, these data can inform decisions in a range of areas including food and water security, disease and disaster risk management, biodiversity, and climate adaptation. Google's platform for planetary-scale geospatial data analysis, Earth Engine, grants access to petabytes of continually updating Earth data, programming interfaces for analyzing the data without the need to download and manage it, and mechanisms for sharing the analyses and publishing results for data-driven decision making. In addition to data about the planet, data about the human planet - population, settlement and urban models - are now available for global scale analysis. The Earth Engine APIs enable these data to be joined, combined or visualized with economic or environmental indicators such as nighttime lights trends, global surface water, or climate projections, in the browser without the need to download anything. We will present our newly developed application intended to serve as a resource for government agencies, disaster response and public health programs, or other consumers of these data to quickly visualize the different population models, and compare them to ground truth tabular data to determine which model suits their immediate needs. Users can further tap into the power of Earth Engine and other Google technologies to perform a range of analysis from simple statistics in custom regions to more complex machine learning models. We will highlight case studies in which organizations around the world have used Earth Engine to combine population data with multiple other sources of data, such as water resources and roads data, over deep stacks of temporal imagery to model disease risk and accessibility to inform decisions.

  12. Markov Modeling with Soft Aggregation for Safety and Decision Analysis; TOPICAL

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    COOPER, J. ARLIN

    1999-01-01

    The methodology in this report improves on some of the limitations of many conventional safety assessment and decision analysis methods. A top-down mathematical approach is developed for decomposing systems and for expressing imprecise individual metrics as possibilistic or fuzzy numbers. A ''Markov-like'' model is developed that facilitates combining (aggregating) inputs into overall metrics and decision aids, also portraying the inherent uncertainty. A major goal of Markov modeling is to help convey the top-down system perspective. One of the constituent methodologies allows metrics to be weighted according to significance of the attribute and aggregated nonlinearly as to contribution. This aggregation is performed using exponential combination of the metrics, since the accumulating effect of such factors responds less and less to additional factors. This is termed ''soft'' mathematical aggregation. Dependence among the contributing factors is accounted for by incorporating subjective metrics on ''overlap'' of the factors as well as by correspondingly reducing the overall contribution of these combinations to the overall aggregation. Decisions corresponding to the meaningfulness of the results are facilitated in several ways. First, the results are compared to a soft threshold provided by a sigmoid function. Second, information is provided on input ''Importance'' and ''Sensitivity,'' in order to know where to place emphasis on considering new controls that may be necessary. Third, trends in inputs and outputs are tracked in order to obtain significant information% including cyclic information for the decision process. A practical example from the air transportation industry is used to demonstrate application of the methodology. Illustrations are given for developing a structure (along with recommended inputs and weights) for air transportation oversight at three different levels, for developing and using cycle information, for developing Importance and

  13. Decision-making on the integration of renewable energy in the mining industry: A case studies analysis, a cost analysis and a SWOT analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kateryna Zharan

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The mining industry is showing increasing interest in using renewable energy (RE technologies as one of the principles of sustainable mining. This is witnessed in several pilot projects in major mining countries around the world. Positive factors which favor this interest are gaining importance and negative barrier factors seem to be less relevant. For a mine operator, the switch from fossil fuel to RE technologies is the outcome of decision making processes. So far, research about such decision making on the use of RE in mining is underdeveloped. The purpose of this paper to present a practical decision rule based on a principle of indifference between RE and fossil fuel technologies and on appropriate time management. To achieve this objective, three investigations are made: (i a case studies analysis, (ii a comparative cost analysis, and (iii a SWOT analysis.

  14. Assessment of flood susceptible areas using spatially explicit, probabilistic multi-criteria decision analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Zhongqian; Zhang, Hua; Yi, Shanzhen; Xiao, Yangfan

    2018-03-01

    GIS-based multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is increasingly used to support flood risk assessment. However, conventional GIS-MCDA methods fail to adequately represent spatial variability and are accompanied with considerable uncertainty. It is, thus, important to incorporate spatial variability and uncertainty into GIS-based decision analysis procedures. This research develops a spatially explicit, probabilistic GIS-MCDA approach for the delineation of potentially flood susceptible areas. The approach integrates the probabilistic and the local ordered weighted averaging (OWA) methods via Monte Carlo simulation, to take into account the uncertainty related to criteria weights, spatial heterogeneity of preferences and the risk attitude of the analyst. The approach is applied to a pilot study for the Gucheng County, central China, heavily affected by the hazardous 2012 flood. A GIS database of six geomorphological and hydrometeorological factors for the evaluation of susceptibility was created. Moreover, uncertainty and sensitivity analysis were performed to investigate the robustness of the model. The results indicate that the ensemble method improves the robustness of the model outcomes with respect to variation in criteria weights and identifies which criteria weights are most responsible for the variability of model outcomes. Therefore, the proposed approach is an improvement over the conventional deterministic method and can provides a more rational, objective and unbiased tool for flood susceptibility evaluation.

  15. A Geospatial Cyberinfrastructure for Urban Economic Analysis and Spatial Decision-Making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael F. Goodchild

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Urban economic modeling and effective spatial planning are critical tools towards achieving urban sustainability. However, in practice, many technical obstacles, such as information islands, poor documentation of data and lack of software platforms to facilitate virtual collaboration, are challenging the effectiveness of decision-making processes. In this paper, we report on our efforts to design and develop a geospatial cyberinfrastructure (GCI for urban economic analysis and simulation. This GCI provides an operational graphic user interface, built upon a service-oriented architecture to allow (1 widespread sharing and seamless integration of distributed geospatial data; (2 an effective way to address the uncertainty and positional errors encountered in fusing data from diverse sources; (3 the decomposition of complex planning questions into atomic spatial analysis tasks and the generation of a web service chain to tackle such complex problems; and (4 capturing and representing provenance of geospatial data to trace its flow in the modeling task. The Greater Los Angeles Region serves as the test bed. We expect this work to contribute to effective spatial policy analysis and decision-making through the adoption of advanced GCI and to broaden the application coverage of GCI to include urban economic simulations.

  16. Optimizing medical device buying. Value analysis models can help you improve decision-making process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feldstein, Josh; Brooks, Elizabeth

    2010-05-01

    Value Analysis Models (VAMs) are a burgeoning analytical tool that can help materials managers, operating room managers, CFOs and others to make comparative value assessments before reaching a critical purchasing decision. Although relatively new to the hospital field, more and more manufacturers are supporting these initiatives to bring critical information to their customers and the health care industry. VAMs aren't designed to conclude that one product is better than another but to be a tool that can help make the product acquisition process much easier.

  17. Head First Data Analysis A learner's guide to big numbers, statistics, and good decisions

    CERN Document Server

    Milton, Michael

    2009-01-01

    Today, interpreting data is a critical decision-making factor for businesses and organizations. If your job requires you to manage and analyze all kinds of data, turn to Head First Data Analysis, where you'll quickly learn how to collect and organize data, sort the distractions from the truth, find meaningful patterns, draw conclusions, predict the future, and present your findings to others. Whether you're a product developer researching the market viability of a new product or service, a marketing manager gauging or predicting the effectiveness of a campaign, a salesperson who needs data t

  18. Meta-analysis is not an exact science: Call for guidance on quantitative synthesis decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haddaway, Neal R; Rytwinski, Trina

    2018-02-23

    Meta-analysis is becoming increasingly popular in the field of ecology and environmental management. It increases the effective power of analyses relative to single studies, and allows researchers to investigate effect modifiers and sources of heterogeneity that could not be easily examined within single studies. Many systematic reviewers will set out to conduct a meta-analysis as part of their synthesis, but meta-analysis requires a niche set of skills that are not widely held by the environmental research community. Each step in the process of carrying out a meta-analysis requires decisions that have both scientific and statistical implications. Reviewers are likely to be faced with a plethora of decisions over which effect size to choose, how to calculate variances, and how to build statistical models. Some of these decisions may be simple based on appropriateness of the options. At other times, reviewers must choose between equally valid approaches given the information available to them. This presents a significant problem when reviewers are attempting to conduct a reliable synthesis, such as a systematic review, where subjectivity is minimised and all decisions are documented and justified transparently. We propose three urgent, necessary developments within the evidence synthesis community. Firstly, we call on quantitative synthesis experts to improve guidance on how to prepare data for quantitative synthesis, providing explicit detail to support systematic reviewers. Secondly, we call on journal editors and evidence synthesis coordinating bodies (e.g. CEE) to ensure that quantitative synthesis methods are adequately reported in a transparent and repeatable manner in published systematic reviews. Finally, where faced with two or more broadly equally valid alternative methods or actions, reviewers should conduct multiple analyses, presenting all options, and discussing the implications of the different analytical approaches. We believe it is vital to tackle

  19. Transportation Big Data: Unbiased Analysis and Tools to Inform Sustainable Transportation Decisions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2016-06-01

    Today, transportation operation and energy systems data are generated at an unprecedented scale. The U.S. Department of Energy's National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) is the go-to source for expertise in providing data and analysis to inform industry and government transportation decision making. The lab's teams of data experts and engineers are mining and analyzing large sets of complex data -- or 'big data' -- to develop solutions that support the research, development, and deployment of market-ready technologies that reduce fuel consumption and greenhouse gas emissions.

  20. A systematic assessment of the association of polysomnographic indices with blood pressure: the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dean, Dennis A; Wang, Rui; Jacobs, David R; Duprez, Daniel; Punjabi, Naresh M; Zee, Phyllis C; Shea, Steven; Watson, Karol; Redline, Susan

    2015-04-01

    Blood pressure (BP) may be adversely affected by a variety of sleep disturbances, including sleep fragmentation, hypoxemia, respiratory disturbances, and periodic limb movements. We aim to identify which polysomnography indices are most strongly and consistently associated with systolic and diastolic blood pressure (SBP, DBP) levels in a population-based sample. Cross-sectional analysis of data from 2,040 participants in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) who underwent polysomnography at MESA Exam 5 in 2011-2013. Multisite cohort study. Participants were mean age 68 y (54% females; 28% African American, 24% Hispanic, 11% Chinese). Thirty-two candidate polysomnography predictors were identified representing the domains of breathing disturbance frequency, hypoxemia, sleep architecture, and periodic limb movements. Cluster analysis was used for variable reduction. Statistical models, adjusted for potential confounders, were derived using stepwise regression. Final models were selected using cross-validation techniques. The apnea-hypopnea index (AHI) defined using a 4% desaturation hypopnea criterion (AHI4P) was most consistently associated with SBP level. The AHI and periodic limb movement index (associated with arousals; PLMIA) were significantly associated with DBP. Estimated adjusted differences in SBP and DBP levels between an individual with no sleep apnea (AHI4P = 0) and one with moderately severe sleep apnea (AHI4P = 30) were 2.2 mm Hg and 1.1 mm Hg, respectively. Each 10-unit increase in the PLMIA was associated with an increase in DBP of 1.2 mm Hg. Our results support the use of a currently recommended apnea-hypopnea index definition as a marker of blood pressure risk and indicate that measurement of limb movements with arousals is also independently associated with diastolic blood pressure. © 2015 Associated Professional Sleep Societies, LLC.

  1. The process of construction of evidence: An analysis of the use of indicators in two decisions of innovation policy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boavida, N.; Moniz, A.; Laranja, M.

    2016-07-01

    Despite increasing calls for evidence-based policies, knowledge about the practical use of evidences remains limited. This paper studies the process of construction of evidences in decisions of innovation policy to understand how evidences were used. It analysis the use of indicators and other evidences through interviews conducted to inquire about the two decisions: an electric mobility policy and a nanotechnology laboratory. Results show indicators and other evidences were brought to decision processes according to their availability and capacity to support the different interests of the actors and the stakeholders. Their role was influenced by the particular situation of the decision makers. More importantly, the use of persuasive analytical evidences appears to be related with the adversity of the policy context. In addition, research suggests that indicators are one tool among others to foster innovation decisions. In fact, the relatively minor instrumental role of indicators suggests that indicators are mostly a complementary instrument of decision. When used relevantly, indicators can offer support to a decision. But there are other significant influences that need to be taken into account to understand the specific role indicators and other evidences play, such as the social relations of the decision makers and their emotional-intuitive decisions. (Author)

  2. Integrating human and robot decision-making dynamics with feedback : Models and convergence analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cao, Ming; Stewart, Andrew; Leonard, Naomi Ehrich

    2008-01-01

    Leveraging research by psychologists on human decision-making, we present a human-robot decision-making problem associated with a complex task and study the corresponding joint decision-making dynamics. The collaborative task is designed so that the human makes decisions just as human subjects make

  3. Automatic Decision Support for Clinical Diagnostic Literature Using Link Analysis in a Weighted Keyword Network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Shuqing; Sun, Ying; Soergel, Dagobert

    2017-12-23

    We present a novel approach to recommending articles from the medical literature that support clinical diagnostic decision-making, giving detailed descriptions of the associated ideas and principles. The specific goal is to retrieve biomedical articles that help answer questions of a specified type about a particular case. Based on the filtered keywords, MeSH(Medical Subject Headings) lexicon and the automatically extracted acronyms, the relationship between keywords and articles was built. The paper gives a detailed description of the process of by which keywords were measured and relevant articles identified based on link analysis in a weighted keywords network. Some important challenges identified in this study include the extraction of diagnosis-related keywords and a collection of valid sentences based on the keyword co-occurrence analysis and existing descriptions of symptoms. All data were taken from medical articles provided in the TREC (Text Retrieval Conference) clinical decision support track 2015. Ten standard topics and one demonstration topic were tested. In each case, a maximum of five articles with the highest relevance were returned. The total user satisfaction of 3.98 was 33% higher than average. The results also suggested that the smaller the number of results, the higher the average satisfaction. However, a few shortcomings were also revealed since medical literature recommendation for clinical diagnostic decision support is so complex a topic that it cannot be fully addressed through the semantic information carried solely by keywords in existing descriptions of symptoms. Nevertheless, the fact that these articles are actually relevant will no doubt inspire future research.

  4. From "weight of evidence" to quantitative data integration using multicriteria decision analysis and Bayesian methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linkov, Igor; Massey, Olivia; Keisler, Jeff; Rusyn, Ivan; Hartung, Thomas

    2015-01-01

    "Weighing" available evidence in the process of decision-making is unavoidable, yet it is one step that routinely raises suspicions: what evidence should be used, how much does it weigh, and whose thumb may be tipping the scales? This commentary aims to evaluate the current state and future roles of various types of evidence for hazard assessment as it applies to environmental health. In its recent evaluation of the US Environmental Protection Agency's Integrated Risk Information System assessment process, the National Research Council committee singled out the term "weight of evidence" (WoE) for critique, deeming the process too vague and detractive to the practice of evaluating human health risks of chemicals. Moving the methodology away from qualitative, vague and controversial methods towards generalizable, quantitative and transparent methods for appropriately managing diverse lines of evidence is paramount for both regulatory and public acceptance of the hazard assessments. The choice of terminology notwithstanding, a number of recent Bayesian WoE-based methods, the emergence of multi criteria decision analysis for WoE applications, as well as the general principles behind the foundational concepts of WoE, show promise in how to move forward and regain trust in the data integration step of the assessments. We offer our thoughts on the current state of WoE as a whole and while we acknowledge that many WoE applications have been largely qualitative and subjective in nature, we see this as an opportunity to turn WoE towards a quantitative direction that includes Bayesian and multi criteria decision analysis.

  5. Ex post power economic analysis of record of decision operational restrictions at Glen Canyon Dam.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Veselka, T. D.; Poch, L. A.; Palmer, C. S.; Loftin, S.; Osiek, B; Decision and Information Sciences; Western Area Power Administration

    2010-07-31

    On October 9, 1996, Bruce Babbitt, then-Secretary of the U.S. Department of the Interior signed the Record of Decision (ROD) on operating criteria for the Glen Canyon Dam (GCD). Criteria selected were based on the Modified Low Fluctuating Flow (MLFF) Alternative as described in the Operation of Glen Canyon Dam, Colorado River Storage Project, Arizona, Final Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) (Reclamation 1995). These restrictions reduced the operating flexibility of the hydroelectric power plant and therefore its economic value. The EIS provided impact information to support the ROD, including an analysis of operating criteria alternatives on power system economics. This ex post study reevaluates ROD power economic impacts and compares these results to the economic analysis performed prior (ex ante) to the ROD for the MLFF Alternative. On the basis of the methodology used in the ex ante analysis, anticipated annual economic impacts of the ROD were estimated to range from approximately $15.1 million to $44.2 million in terms of 1991 dollars ($1991). This ex post analysis incorporates historical events that took place between 1997 and 2005, including the evolution of power markets in the Western Electricity Coordinating Council as reflected in market prices for capacity and energy. Prompted by ROD operational restrictions, this analysis also incorporates a decision made by the Western Area Power Administration to modify commitments that it made to its customers. Simulated operations of GCD were based on the premise that hourly production patterns would maximize the economic value of the hydropower resource. On the basis of this assumption, it was estimated that economic impacts were on average $26.3 million in $1991, or $39 million in $2009.

  6. Decision analysis to define the optimal management of athletes with anomalous aortic origin of a coronary artery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mery, Carlos M; Lopez, Keila N; Molossi, Silvana; Sexson-Tejtel, S Kristen; Krishnamurthy, Rajesh; McKenzie, E Dean; Fraser, Charles D; Cantor, Scott B

    2016-11-01

    The goal of this study was to use decision analysis to evaluate the impact of varying uncertainties on the outcomes of patients with anomalous aortic origin of a coronary artery. Two separate decision analysis models were created: one for anomalous left coronary artery (ALCA) and one for anomalous right coronary artery (ARCA). Three strategies were compared: observation, exercise restriction, and surgery. Probabilities and health utilities were estimated on the basis of existing literature. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed. Surgery was the optimal management strategy for patients management in anomalous aortic origin of a coronary artery depends on multiple factors, including individual patient characteristics. Decision analysis provides a tool to understand how these characteristics affect the outcomes with each management strategy and thus may aid in the decision making process for a particular patient. Copyright © 2016 The American Association for Thoracic Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. MARKETING MIX ANALYSIS OF NATURAL TOURISM AREA 'KAWAH PUTIH’ AND ITS EFFECT ON VISITORS’ DECISION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Isyana Rahayu

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Kawah Putih is one of the leading tourist places in Bandung which has significantly contributed to the revenue of travel business division in the Forestry Housing as the manager. The revenue obtained depends on the marketing mix strategy conducted by the management because the marketing mix is the elements which become a consideration basis when making marketing communication strategy services in order to understand the demands of tourists. Therefore, the objectives of this study were to obtain and understand information and analyze the visitors’ responses on the natural tourism area related to the marketing mix that has been implemented by the management. The dependent variables included the elements of marketing mix, that involves 7P – product, price, place, promotion, people, procees and physical evidence, while the independent variable included the visitors’ decision. From the validity and tests, it is revealed that the overall regression model bring effects or at least there is one variable of the marketing mix factors that influences the decision of the visitors. From the data analysis, it is found that the process variables and physical appearance do not significantly affect the decision of the visitors. The other variables. that involve variables of product, price, place, promotion, and human have significantly influence the visitors’ decision.Keywords: Marketing mix, Kawah Putih, decision of visitors, touristsABSTRAKKawah Putih merupakan salah satu wisata unggulan Kota Bandung dan telah berkontribusi cukup signifikan untuk pendapatan divisi bisnis wisata Perum Perhutani. Pendapatan yang diperoleh tergantung dari strategi bauran pemasaran yang dilakukan oleh pengelola karena pada bauran pemasaran terdapat unsur atau elemen yang menjadi dasar pertimbangan pembuatan strategi komunikasi pemasaran jasa dalam rangka untuk memahami tuntutan dari wisatawan. Tujuan penelitian ini adalah memperoleh informasi, memahami dan menganalisis

  8. Nuclear proliferation in the Third World: an analysis of decision making in Indiana and Pakistan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gdaia, A.M.

    1985-01-01

    The causes of nuclear proliferation in the Third World are analyzed by examining the motives and forces that went into the nuclear decisions of India and Pakistan. A comprehensive framework is used that consists of five levels of analysis: international, societal, governmental, bureaucratic, and individual factors. The study examines how various potential motives that might impel a nation to acquire nuclear weapons operated through the different levels of analysis. It is concluded that the security motive was the primary determinant in each case as opposed to other motives such as desire for international status or economic considerations. However, security motives were joined by other values and constraints. Regional conflict combined with the lack of a superpower guarantee of security to persuade both countries to pursue nuclear weapons. Such domestic factors as the type of political systems, public opinion, and mass media seemed to play a very limited role in the decisions, although a larger role in India than in Pakistan. Finally, strong individual leadership was a relatively powerful determinant of policy in both countries

  9. Strategic rehabilitation planning of piped water networks using multi-criteria decision analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scholten, Lisa; Scheidegger, Andreas; Reichert, Peter; Maurer, Max; Mauer, Max; Lienert, Judit

    2014-02-01

    To overcome the difficulties of strategic asset management of water distribution networks, a pipe failure and a rehabilitation model are combined to predict the long-term performance of rehabilitation strategies. Bayesian parameter estimation is performed to calibrate the failure and replacement model based on a prior distribution inferred from three large water utilities in Switzerland. Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) and scenario planning build the framework for evaluating 18 strategic rehabilitation alternatives under future uncertainty. Outcomes for three fundamental objectives (low costs, high reliability, and high intergenerational equity) are assessed. Exploitation of stochastic dominance concepts helps to identify twelve non-dominated alternatives and local sensitivity analysis of stakeholder preferences is used to rank them under four scenarios. Strategies with annual replacement of 1.5-2% of the network perform reasonably well under all scenarios. In contrast, the commonly used reactive replacement is not recommendable unless cost is the only relevant objective. Exemplified for a small Swiss water utility, this approach can readily be adapted to support strategic asset management for any utility size and based on objectives and preferences that matter to the respective decision makers. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Importance analysis based on logical differential calculus and Binary Decision Diagram

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zaitseva, Elena; Levashenko, Vitaly; Kostolny, Jozef

    2015-01-01

    System availability evaluation, sensitivity analysis, Importance Measures, and optimal design are important issues that have become research topics for reliability engineering. There are different mathematical approaches to the development of these topics. The structure function based approach is one of them. Structure function enables one to analyse a system of any complexity. But computational complexity of structure function based methods is time consuming for large-scale networks. We propose to use two mathematical approaches for decision to this problem for system importance analysis. The first of them is Direct Partial Boolean Derivative. New equations for calculating the Importance Measures are developed in terms of these derivatives. The second is Binary Decision Diagram (BDD), that supports efficient manipulation of Boolean algebra. Two algorithms for calculating Direct Partial Boolean Derivative based on BDD of structure function are proposed in this paper. The experimental results show the efficiency of new algorithms for calculating Direct Partial Boolean Derivative and Importance Measures. - Highlights: • New approach for calculation of Importance Measures is proposed. • Direct Partial Boolean Derivatives are used for calculation of Importance Measures. • New equations for Importance Measures are obtained. • New algorithm to calculate Direct Partial Boolean Derivatives by BDD is developed

  11. BiodieselFAO: An Integrated Decision Support System for Investment Analysis in the Biodiesel Production Chain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aziz Galvão da Silva Júnior

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available In the short and medium terms, biofuels are the most viable alternative to reduce the environmental impact of fossil fuels. The recent controversy over the competition between biofuels and food production increases the complexity of investment decisions in the biodiesel production chain. In this context, decision support tools are highly relevant. The purpose of this article is to describe the BiodieselFAO using the Unified Modeling Language (UML. An integrated analysis considering both agricultural and industrial sectors was identified as a key requirement to the system. Therefore, farmers and industry are the main actors in the use case diagram. As the raw material represents around 70% of the industrial cost of biodiesel production, the price negotiation of raw material (oilseeds is the central use case. Configuration, agriculture, industry, results and scenarios are the modules, which encompass the functionalities derived from the UML diagrams. The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO has made the BiodieselFAO available, free of charge, to around 180 professionals from 17 Latin American countries. Additionally, the developing team has supported the usage of the BiodieselFAO in several biodiesel investment analyses throughout Latin America. The system was also useful in the design and analysis of policy related to biodiesel industry in Brazil.

  12. Efficient management of diarrhea in the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS). A medical decision analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johanson, J F; Sonnenberg, A

    1990-06-15

    To compare the efficacy and cost effectiveness of alternative strategies for the evaluation and medical management of diarrhea in patients with the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS). Medical decision analysis using a decision tree. Three management strategies were compared: full evaluation, which included stool culture, ova and parasite examination, stain for protozoa, blood cultures, esophagogastroduodenoscopy with biopsy, and colonoscopy with biopsy; limited evaluation, which included stool culture, ova and parasite examination, stool stain for protozoa, and blood cultures; and minimal evaluation, which included only a stool culture. Treatment was based on the outcome of the diagnostic workup. Patients without a specific diagnosis were treated symptomatically with diphenoxylate hydrochloride. Nonrespondents to initial symptomatic treatment and patients with recurrent diarrhea after specific therapy were given the full evaluation. Average probabilities of diagnostic and therapeutic success were calculated from previous reports. Costs were compiled based on diagnostic and therapeutic expenditures. Under baseline assumptions, the remission rates for diarrhea were 75.2%, 74.8%, and 74.8% in patients undergoing the full, limited, and minimal evaluations, respectively. The respective costs of the three strategies were $5419, $1997, and $1700 per patient in remission. A sensitivity analysis showed that the differences in efficacy and cost among the full, limited, and minimal strategies remained unchanged over a broad range of possible rates of diagnostic or therapeutic success. The minimal evaluation in all patients, with the full evaluation reserved only for nonrespondents to symptomatic treatment, is efficacious and is the most cost-effective strategy for managing AIDS-related diarrhea.

  13. Adapting Cognitive Task Analysis to Investigate Clinical Decision Making and Medication Safety Incidents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Russ, Alissa L; Militello, Laura G; Glassman, Peter A; Arthur, Karen J; Zillich, Alan J; Weiner, Michael

    2017-05-03

    Cognitive task analysis (CTA) can yield valuable insights into healthcare professionals' cognition and inform system design to promote safe, quality care. Our objective was to adapt CTA-the critical decision method, specifically-to investigate patient safety incidents, overcome barriers to implementing this method, and facilitate more widespread use of cognitive task analysis in healthcare. We adapted CTA to facilitate recruitment of healthcare professionals and developed a data collection tool to capture incidents as they occurred. We also leveraged the electronic health record (EHR) to expand data capture and used EHR-stimulated recall to aid reconstruction of safety incidents. We investigated 3 categories of medication-related incidents: adverse drug reactions, drug-drug interactions, and drug-disease interactions. Healthcare professionals submitted incidents, and a subset of incidents was selected for CTA. We analyzed several outcomes to characterize incident capture and completed CTA interviews. We captured 101 incidents. Eighty incidents (79%) met eligibility criteria. We completed 60 CTA interviews, 20 for each incident category. Capturing incidents before interviews allowed us to shorten the interview duration and reduced reliance on healthcare professionals' recall. Incorporating the EHR into CTA enriched data collection. The adapted CTA technique was successful in capturing specific categories of safety incidents. Our approach may be especially useful for investigating safety incidents that healthcare professionals "fix and forget." Our innovations to CTA are expected to expand the application of this method in healthcare and inform a wide range of studies on clinical decision making and patient safety.

  14. Study on Network Error Analysis and Locating based on Integrated Information Decision System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, F.; Dong, Z. H.

    2017-10-01

    Integrated information decision system (IIDS) integrates multiple sub-system developed by many facilities, including almost hundred kinds of software, which provides with various services, such as email, short messages, drawing and sharing. Because the under-layer protocols are different, user standards are not unified, many errors are occurred during the stages of setup, configuration, and operation, which seriously affect the usage. Because the errors are various, which may be happened in different operation phases, stages, TCP/IP communication protocol layers, sub-system software, it is necessary to design a network error analysis and locating tool for IIDS to solve the above problems. This paper studies on network error analysis and locating based on IIDS, which provides strong theory and technology supports for the running and communicating of IIDS.

  15. Analysis on factors affecting consumers decision on purchasing simple-type houses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rumintang, A.; Sholichin, I.

    2018-01-01

    In line with the increase of the population and the need of comfortable houses, as affected by modernization era, the house demand is getting higher. Hence, conducting a research on consumers need and want in buying a house should be seriously attempted to succeed marketing activity. Using an analysis consumers’ behavior, the researcher will know few affecting factors related to consumers’ satisfaction in buying a house. Among other, the factors in question include: house price, house condition, facilities, location and accessability. The sample of this research was drawn from the residents of Graha Asri Housing, Taman Bulang Permai, and Sukodono Permai. Based on the analysis and discussion, some conclusions are made as follow: the factors and variables affecting the consumers’ decision on each choice of house is different and also the same variables on three sources of data include housing atmosphere, cleaning service, ease of access to shopping center, health clinics or hospitals, tourism spot, schools, and the bus station.

  16. Analysis and design of a web-based decision support system for choosing higher education studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kostoglou Vassilis

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The vocational orientation of the youngsters who are about to enter, study, or have recently graduated at higher education (HE institutions, and linking HE with labor market are two research areas which have not been investigated extensively in Balkan countries. Job (or occupational profiles, among other tools used in vocational orientation, provide standardized and digitized descriptions of different professions. This article focuses on the analysis and the design of a web-based decision support system (DSS to assist its users in getting thoroughly informed about HE studies in Greece, and eventually in choosing their vocational prospects. Apart from reviewing the related previous research work and relevant web-based systems, we present the main elements of the system’s analysis and its design, the extensions that could lead to even more powerful systems, and conclusions about the advantages, limitations and practical application of the DSS.

  17. Análisis de la condición física en jugadores y jugadoras de tenis de mesa y su relación con el rendimiento deportivo. [Physical fitness analysis in male and female table tennis players and their relationship to competition performance].

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jon Mikel Picabea

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Los objetivos de este estudio fueron analizar el perfil físico de jugadores de tenis de mesa, observar si existían diferencias en función del género en las pruebas realizadas y determinar si existía alguna relación entre las pruebas de condición física y el rendimiento deportivo. Veinte jugadores de tenis de mesa, de los cuales 10 eran jugadores de categoría masculina (17,61 ± 7,56 años, 1,63 ± 0,11 m, 60,62 ± 20,03 kg, 22,07 ± 5,87 kg/m2 y 10 jugadoras de categoría femenina (17,35 ± 7,12 años, 1,61 ± 0,07 m, 48,89 ± 7,66 kg, 19,33 ± 2,26 kg/m2 fueron evaluados en la capacidad de sprint, fuerza isométrica de antebrazo, salto vertical con contra movimiento, salto horizontal con contra movimiento, capacidad de cambiar de dirección y flexibilidad. Los resultados mostraron mejores resultados en el grupo de jugadores masculinos en comparación con el grupo femenino en el test de capacidad de cambio de dirección (MAT, p 0,05 entre el resultado obtenido en las pruebas de condición física y el rendimiento deportivo en competición ni en jugadores masculinos ni femeninos. Este aspecto pone de manifiesto que la condición física puede no ser uno de los factores relevantes en el rendimiento deportivo de los jugadores de tenis de mesa de este estudio. Abstract The aims of this study were to analyze the physical profile of table tennis players, look at differences between genders in the different tests and to determinate the relationships between the physical fitness test and sport performance. 20 table tennis players, 10 male players (17.61 ± 7.56 years, 1.63 ± 0.11 m, 60.62 ± 20.03 kg, 22.07 ± 5.87 kg/m2 and 10 female players (17.35 ± 7.12 years, 1.61 ± 0.07 m, 48.89 ± 7.66 kg, 19.33 ± 2.26 kg/m2, performed a sprint test, forearm isometric strength, countermovement vertical test, countermovement horizontal test, change of direction ability test and flexibility. The male players obtained better results than the female

  18. Characterization of gallium arsenide X-ray mesa p-i-n photodiodes at room temperature

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lioliou, G. [Semiconductor Materials and Devices Laboratory, Department Engineering and Design, Sch. of Engineering and Informatics, University of Sussex, Falmer, Brighton BN1 9QT (United Kingdom); Meng, X.; Ng, J.S. [Department of Electronic & Electrical Engineering, University of Sheffield, Mappin Street, Sheffield S1 3JD (United Kingdom); Barnett, A.M. [Semiconductor Materials and Devices Laboratory, Department Engineering and Design, Sch. of Engineering and Informatics, University of Sussex, Falmer, Brighton BN1 9QT (United Kingdom)

    2016-03-21

    Two GaAs mesa p{sup +}-i-n{sup +} photodiodes intended for photon counting X-ray spectroscopy, having an i layer thickness of 7 μm and diameter of 200 μm, have been characterized electrically, for their responsivity at the wavelength range 580 nm to 980 nm and one of them for its performance at detection of soft X-rays, at room temperature. Dark current and capacitance measurements as a function of applied forward and reverse bias are presented. The results show low leakage current densities, in the range of nA/cm{sup 2} at the maximum internal electric field (22 kV/cm). The unintentional doping concentration of the i layer, calculated from capacitance measurements, was found to be <10{sup 14} cm{sup −3}. Photocurrent measurements were performed under visible and near infrared light illumination for both diodes. The analysis of these measurements suggests the presence of a non-active (dead) layer (0.16 μm thickness) at the p{sup +} side top contact interface, where the photogenerated carriers do not contribute to the photocurrent, possibly due to recombination. One of the diodes, D1, was also characterized as detector for room temperature photon counting X-ray spectroscopy; the best energy resolution achieved (FWHM) at 5.9 keV was 745 eV. The noise analysis of the system, based on spectra obtained at different shaping times and applied reverse biases, showed that the dominant source of noise is the dielectric noise. It was also calculated that there was at least (165±24) eV charge trapping noise at 0 V.

  19. Multi-criteria decision analysis for health technology assessment in Canada: insights from an expert panel discussion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diaby, Vakaramoko; Goeree, Ron; Hoch, Jeffrey; Siebert, Uwe

    2015-02-01

    Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA), a decision-making tool, has received increasing attention in recent years, notably in the healthcare field. For Canada, it is unclear whether and how MCDA should be incorporated into the existing health technology assessment (HTA) decision-making process. To facilitate debate on improving HTA decision-making in Canada, a workshop was held in conjunction with the 8th World Congress on Health Economics of the International Health Economics Association in Toronto, Canada in July 2011. The objective of the workshop was to discuss the potential benefits and challenges related to the use of MCDA for HTA decision-making in Canada. This paper summarizes and discusses the recommendations of an expert panel convened at the workshop to discuss opportunities and concerns with reference to the implementation of MCDA in Canada.

  20. Decision Analysis Methods Used to Make Appropriate Investments in Human Exploration Capabilities and Technologies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams-Byrd, Julie; Arney, Dale C.; Hay, Jason; Reeves, John D.; Craig, Douglas

    2016-01-01

    NASA is transforming human spaceflight. The Agency is shifting from an exploration-based program with human activities in low Earth orbit (LEO) and targeted robotic missions in deep space to a more sustainable and integrated pioneering approach. Through pioneering, NASA seeks to address national goals to develop the capacity for people to work, learn, operate, live, and thrive safely beyond Earth for extended periods of time. However, pioneering space involves daunting technical challenges of transportation, maintaining health, and enabling crew productivity for long durations in remote, hostile, and alien environments. Prudent investments in capability and technology developments, based on mission need, are critical for enabling a campaign of human exploration missions. There are a wide variety of capabilities and technologies that could enable these missions, so it is a major challenge for NASA's Human Exploration and Operations Mission Directorate (HEOMD) to make knowledgeable portfolio decisions. It is critical for this pioneering initiative that these investment decisions are informed with a prioritization process that is robust and defensible. It is NASA's role to invest in targeted technologies and capabilities that would enable exploration missions even though specific requirements have not been identified. To inform these investments decisions, NASA's HEOMD has supported a variety of analysis activities that prioritize capabilities and technologies. These activities are often based on input from subject matter experts within the NASA community who understand the technical challenges of enabling human exploration missions. This paper will review a variety of processes and methods that NASA has used to prioritize and rank capabilities and technologies applicable to human space exploration. The paper will show the similarities in the various processes and showcase instances were customer specified priorities force modifications to the process. Specifically

  1. Sociodemographic correlates of cognition in the multi-ethnic study of atherosclerosis (MESA)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Our objective was to describe the methodology utilized to evaluate cognitive function in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) and to present preliminary results by age, sex, and race/ethnicity. Cross-sectional measurements of a prospective observational cohort. Residents of 6 U.S. commun...

  2. Mesa-height Dependent Quantum Efficiency Characteristics of InGaN Micro-LEDs

    KAUST Repository

    Shen, Chao

    2013-01-01

    The mechanisms of mesa-height dependent efficiency and efficiency droop of blue InGaN/GaN micro-LED is presented. Device with a large etch-depth (> 1.3 µm) shows significant strain relief with aggravated current crowding.

  3. ERDA test facilities, East Mesa Test Site. Geothermal resource investigations, Imperial Valley, California

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1976-01-01

    Detailed specifications which must be complied with in the construction of the ERDA Test Facilities at the East Mesa Site for geothermal resource investigations in Imperial Valley, California are presented for use by prospective bidders for the construction contract. The principle construction work includes a 700 gpm cooling tower with its associated supports and equipment, pipelines from wells, electrical equipment, and all earthwork. (LCL)

  4. [The first experience wih ICSI and MESA in Panama, Central America and the Caribbean].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alleyne, C; Sánchez, F

    1998-01-01

    The intracytoplasmic sperm injection (ICSI) has represented an important advance in human reproduction technology, improving the results in those couples with a very low probability of achieving pregnancy. Our aim is present the results of our first experience with ICSI and MESA in Panama, Central America and the Caribe.

  5. 78 FR 16816 - Radio Broadcasting Services; Ehrenberg, First Mesa, Kachina Village, Munds Park, Wickenburg, and...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-03-19

    ... COMMISSION 47 CFR Part 73 Radio Broadcasting Services; Ehrenberg, First Mesa, Kachina Village, Munds Park... filed by Univision Radio License Corporation for an increase in existing service by Station KHOV-FM, Wickenburg, Arizona. The Bureau also dismisses a Petition for Rule Making filed by Rocket Radio, Inc. for a...

  6. 77 FR 2242 - Radio Broadcasting Services; Ehrenberg, First Mesa, Kachina Village, Wickenburg, and Williams, AZ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-17

    ... FEDERAL COMMUNICATIONS COMMISSION 47 CFR Part 73 [MB Docket No. 08-85; RM-11427, RM-11517, RM-11518, RM-11519; DA 11- 2059] Radio Broadcasting Services; Ehrenberg, First Mesa, Kachina Village, Wickenburg, and Williams, AZ, and Needles, CA AGENCY: Federal Communications Commission. ACTION: Proposed...

  7. 77 FR 2241 - Radio Broadcasting Services; Ehrenberg, First Mesa, Kachina Village, Wickenburg, and Williams, AZ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-17

    ...-2058] Radio Broadcasting Services; Ehrenberg, First Mesa, Kachina Village, Wickenburg, and Williams, AZ...., proposes the allotment of FM Channel 287C2 at Williams, Arizona, as the community's second local service... Williams allotment, we issue an Order to Show Cause to Univision Radio License Corporation as to why its...

  8. Interference of partial visual analysis of root filling quality and apical status on retreatment decisions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Renata Dornelles Morgental

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: The presence of periapical radiolucency has been used as a criterion for endodontic treatment failure. However, in addition to the inherent limitations of radiographic examinations, radiographic interpretations are extremely subjective. Thus, this study investigated the effect of partial analysis of root filling quality and periapical status on retreatment decisions by general dentists. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Twelve digitalized periapical radiographs were analyzed by 10 observers. The study was conducted at three time points at 1-week intervals. Radiographs edited with the Adobe Photoshop CS4 software were analyzed at three time points: first, only root filling quality was analyzed; second, only the periapical areas of the teeth under study were visualized; finally, observers analyzed the unedited radiographic image. Spearman ’s coefficient was used to analyze the correlations between the scores assigned when the periapical area was not visible and when the unedited radiograph was analyzed, as well as between the scores assigned when root fillings where not visible and when the unedited radiograph was analyzed. Sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values between partial images and unedited radiographs were also used to analyze retreatment decisions. The level of significance was set at 5%. RESULTS: The visualization of the root filling on the unedited radiograph affected the interpretation of the periapical status and the technical quality of the fillings has a greater influence on the general dentist’s decision to prescribe endodontic retreatment than the periapical condition. CONCLUSION: In order to make endodontic diagnosis, radiographic interpretation process should not only emphasize technical aspects, but also consider biological factors.

  9. Analysis of Nursing Clinical Decision Support Requests and Strategic Plan in a Large Academic Health System.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whalen, Kimberly; Bavuso, Karen; Bouyer-Ferullo, Sharon; Goldsmith, Denise; Fairbanks, Amanda; Gesner, Emily; Lagor, Charles; Collins, Sarah

    2016-01-01

    To understand requests for nursing Clinical Decision Support (CDS) interventions at a large integrated health system undergoing vendor-based EHR implementation. In addition, to establish a process to guide both short-term implementation and long-term strategic goals to meet nursing CDS needs. We conducted an environmental scan to understand current state of nursing CDS over three months. The environmental scan consisted of a literature review and an analysis of CDS requests received from across our health system. We identified existing high priority CDS and paper-based tools used in nursing practice at our health system that guide decision-making. A total of 46 nursing CDS requests were received. Fifty-six percent (n=26) were specific to a clinical specialty; 22 percent (n=10) were focused on facilitating clinical consults in the inpatient setting. "Risk Assessments/Risk Reduction/Promotion of Healthy Habits" (n=23) was the most requested High Priority Category received for nursing CDS. A continuum of types of nursing CDS needs emerged using the Data-Information-Knowledge-Wisdom Conceptual Framework: 1) facilitating data capture, 2) meeting information needs, 3) guiding knowledge-based decision making, and 4) exposing analytics for wisdom-based clinical interpretation by the nurse. Identifying and prioritizing paper-based tools that can be modified into electronic CDS is a challenge. CDS strategy is an evolving process that relies on close collaboration and engagement with clinical sites for short-term implementation and should be incorporated into a long-term strategic plan that can be optimized and achieved overtime. The Data-Information-Knowledge-Wisdom Conceptual Framework in conjunction with the High Priority Categories established may be a useful tool to guide a strategic approach for meeting short-term nursing CDS needs and aligning with the organizational strategic plan.

  10. Interference of partial visual analysis of root filling quality and apical status on retreatment decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    MORGENTAL, Renata Dornelles; dos SANTOS, Régis Burmeister; RÖSING, Cassiano Kuchenbecker; CHANIN, Taís do Amaral; de FIGUEIREDO, José Antônio Poli

    2012-01-01

    Objective The presence of periapical radiolucency has been used as a criterion for endodontic treatment failure. However, in addition to the inherent limitations of radiographic examinations, radiographic interpretations are extremely subjective. Thus, this study investigated the effect of partial analysis of root filling quality and periapical status on retreatment decisions by general dentists. Material and Methods Twelve digitalized periapical radiographs were analyzed by 10 observers. The study was conducted at three time points at 1-week intervals. Radiographs edited with the Adobe Photoshop CS4 software were analyzed at three time points: first, only root filling quality was analyzed; second, only the periapical areas of the teeth under study were visualized; finally, observers analyzed the unedited radiographic image. Spearman's coefficient was used to analyze the correlations between the scores assigned when the periapical area was not visible and when the unedited radiograph was analyzed, as well as between the scores assigned when root fillings where not visible and when the unedited radiograph was analyzed. Sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values between partial images and unedited radiographs were also used to analyze retreatment decisions. The level of significance was set at 5%. Results The visualization of the root filling on the unedited radiograph affected the interpretation of the periapical status and the technical quality of the fillings has a greater influence on the general dentist's decision to prescribe endodontic retreatment than the periapical condition. Conclusion In order to make endodontic diagnosis, radiographic interpretation process should not only emphasize technical aspects, but also consider biological factors. PMID:22666838

  11. Supporting ALARP decision-making by cost benefit analysis and multi-attribute utility theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    French, Simon; Bedford, Tim; Atherton, Elizabeth

    2001-01-01

    Current regulation in the UK and elsewhere specify upper and target risk limits for the operation of nuclear plant in terms of frequencies of various kinds of accidents and accidental releases per annum. 'As low as reasonably practicable' (ALARP) arguments are used to justify the acceptance or rejection of policies that lead to risk changes between these limits. We assess the suitability of cost-benefit analysis (CBA) and multi-attribute utility theory (MAUT) for performing ALARP ('as low as reasonably possible') assessments, in particular within the nuclear industry. Four problems stand out in current CBA applications to ALARP, concerning the determination of prices of safety gains or detriments, the valuation of group and individual risk, calculations using 'disproportionality', and the use of discounting to trade off risks through time. This last point has received less attention in the past but is important because of the growing interest in risk-informed regulation in which policies extend over several timeframes and distribute the risk unevenly over these, or in policies that lead to a non-uniform risk within a single timeframe (such as maintenance policies). We discuss the problems associated with giving quantitative support to such decisions. We argue that multi-attribute utility methods (MAUT) provide an alternative methodology to CBA which enable the four problems described above to be addressed in a more satisfactory way. Through sensitivity analysis MAUT can address the perceptions of all stakeholder groups, facilitating constructive discussion and elucidating the key points of disagreement. We also argue that by being explicitly subjective it provides an open, auditable and clear analysis in contrast to the illusory objectivity of CBA. CBA seeks to justify a decision by using a common basis for weights (prices), while MAUT recognizes that different parties may want to give different valuations. It then allows the analyst to explore the ways in which

  12. Motivational factors influencing the homeowners’ decisions between residential heating systems: An empirical analysis for Germany

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Michelsen, Carl Christian; Madlener, Reinhard

    2013-01-01

    Heating demand accounts for a large fraction of the overall energy demand of private households in Germany. A better understanding of the adoption and diffusion of energy-efficient and renewables-based residential heating systems (RHS) is of high policy relevance, particularly against the background of climate change, security of energy supply and increasing energy prices. In this paper, we explore the multi-dimensionality of the homeowners’ motivation to decide between competing RHS. A questionnaire survey (N=2440) conducted in 2010 among homeowners who had recently installed a RHS provides the empirical foundation. Principal component analysis shows that 25 items capturing different adoption motivations can be grouped around six dimensions: (1) cost aspects, (2) general attitude towards the RHS, (3) government grant, (4) reactions to external threats (i.e., environmental or energy supply security considerations), (5) comfort considerations, and (6) influence of peers. Moreover, a cluster analysis with the identified motivational factors as segmentation variables reveals three adopter types: (1) the convenience-oriented, (2) the consequences-aware, and (3) the multilaterally-motivated RHS adopter. Finally, we show that the influence of the motivational factors on the adoption decision also differs by certain characteristics of the homeowner and features of the home. - Highlights: ► Study of the multi-dimensionality of the motivation to adopt residential heating systems (RHS). ► Principal component and cluster analysis are applied to representative survey data for Germany. ► Motivation has six dimensions, including rational decision-making and emotional factors. ► Adoption motivation differs by certain characteristics of the homeowner and of the home. ► Many adopters are driven by existing habits and perceptions about the convenience of the RHS

  13. Regional risk assessment for contaminated sites part 1: vulnerability assessment by multicriteria decision analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zabeo, A; Pizzol, L; Agostini, P; Critto, A; Giove, S; Marcomini, A

    2011-11-01

    As highlighted in the EU Soil Communication, local contamination is one of the main soil threats and it is often related to present and past industrial activities which left a legacy of a high number of contaminated sites in Europe. These contaminated sites can be harmful to many different receptors according to their sensitivity/susceptibility to contamination, and specific vulnerability evaluations are needed in order to manage this widely spread environmental issue. In this paper a novel comprehensive vulnerability assessment framework to assess regional receptor susceptibility to contaminated site is presented. The developed methodology, which combines multi criteria decision analysis (MCDA) techniques and spatial analysis, can be applied to different receptors recognized as relevant for regional assessment. In order to characterize each receptor, picked parameters significant for the estimation of the vulnerability to contaminated sites have been selected, normalized and aggregated by means of multi criteria decision analysis (MCDA) techniques. The developed MCDA methodology, based on the Choquet integral, allows to include expert judgments for the elicitation of synergic and conflicting effects between involved criteria and is applied to all the geographical objects representing the identified receptors. To test the potential of the vulnerability methodology, it has been applied to a specific case study area in the upper Silesia region of Poland where it proved to be reliable and consistent with the environmental experts' expected results. The vulnerability assessment results indicate that groundwater is the most vulnerable receptor characterized by a wide area with vulnerability scores belonging to the highest vulnerability class. As far as the other receptors are concerned, human health and surface water are characterized by quite homogeneous vulnerability scores falling in the medium-high vulnerability classes, while protected areas resulted to be the less

  14. Multicriteria decision analysis in ranking of analytical procedures for aldrin determination in water.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tobiszewski, Marek; Orłowski, Aleksander

    2015-03-27

    The study presents the possibility of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) application when choosing analytical procedures with low environmental impact. A type of MCDA, Preference Ranking Organization Method for Enrichment Evaluations (PROMETHEE), was chosen as versatile tool that meets all the analytical chemists--decision makers requirements. Twenty five analytical procedures for aldrin determination in water samples (as an example) were selected as input alternatives to MCDA analysis. Nine different criteria describing the alternatives were chosen from different groups--metrological, economical and the most importantly--environmental impact. The weights for each criterion were obtained from questionnaires that were sent to experts, giving three different scenarios for MCDA results. The results of analysis show that PROMETHEE is very promising tool to choose the analytical procedure with respect to its greenness. The rankings for all three scenarios placed solid phase microextraction and liquid phase microextraction--based procedures high, while liquid-liquid extraction, solid phase extraction and stir bar sorptive extraction--based procedures were placed low in the ranking. The results show that although some of the experts do not intentionally choose green analytical chemistry procedures, their MCDA choice is in accordance with green chemistry principles. The PROMETHEE ranking results were compared with more widely accepted green analytical chemistry tools--NEMI and Eco-Scale. As PROMETHEE involved more different factors than NEMI, the assessment results were only weakly correlated. Oppositely, the results of Eco-Scale assessment were well-correlated as both methodologies involved similar criteria of assessment. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  15. Analysis for making a regulatory decision to equipment of industrial gammagraphy in Argentin

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ermacora, Marcela G.; Vidal, Dora N.; Alonso, Maria T.

    2013-01-01

    Industrial gammagraphy is a practice widely used as a nondestructive testing technique in Argentina. Experience worldwide has shown the need for an improvement in the intrinsic safety of the equipment used in this lab. In response to this reason, the board of the Nuclear Regulatory Authority (ARN) has considered a proposal to withdraw service movement and much of the equipment inventory scan belonging to industrial facilities nationwide. The main objective of this paper is to present the results of the analysis performed to support the above proposal. The main elements of evaluation can be summarized as follows: I) the teams that do not conform to international recommendations regarding compliance with key safety requirements of international standards such as ISO 3999:2004 (E) R adiation protection - Industrial Apparatus for gamma radiography - Specifications for performance, design and tests ; II) the decision by some manufacturers to discontinue production of certain models of equipment and the provision of spare parts, and III) the validity of certificates bulk type B (U) for transport. In conclusion, it highlights the importance of a regulatory decision supplementary to the Standard AR 7.9.1 concerning the operation of scan equipment industry, based on current international recommendations and Argentina's commitment to good practice and safety culture which can lead to a positive impact on radiation safety in this art

  16. Decision Process Analysis on Project Priority Strategy: A Case Study of an ICT Design Firm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vincent F. Yu

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Project priority strategy is the benchmarking of a corporate operation management strategy and in particular is used by a projects-based research and development firm in the complex competence environment of the information and communication technology (ICT industry. This research takes the variables of external environments and internal resources into account for a firm’s market, technology, and finance assets in order to present a decision process on a project priority strategy. This empirical study also addresses the key factors of the interaction between business on a project development’s supply chain: clients, the examined firm, and suppliers. The findings indicate that a profit-driven project can dominate the firm’s strategic operations and management from the resource-based view and analytic hierarchy process technique perspectives. At the same time, the analysis results contribute significant values to project decision management, which is highly recommended for small-medium enterprises conducting product/project development, project portfolio management, and strategic business management.

  17. Decision analysis and risk models for land development affecting infrastructure systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thekdi, Shital A; Lambert, James H

    2012-07-01

    Coordination and layering of models to identify risks in complex systems such as large-scale infrastructure of energy, water, and transportation is of current interest across application domains. Such infrastructures are increasingly vulnerable to adjacent commercial and residential land development. Land development can compromise the performance of essential infrastructure systems and increase the costs of maintaining or increasing performance. A risk-informed approach to this topic would be useful to avoid surprise, regret, and the need for costly remedies. This article develops a layering and coordination of models for risk management of land development affecting infrastructure systems. The layers are: system identification, expert elicitation, predictive modeling, comparison of investment alternatives, and implications of current decisions for future options. The modeling layers share a focus on observable factors that most contribute to volatility of land development and land use. The relevant data and expert evidence include current and forecasted growth in population and employment, conservation and preservation rules, land topography and geometries, real estate assessments, market and economic conditions, and other factors. The approach integrates to a decision framework of strategic considerations based on assessing risk, cost, and opportunity in order to prioritize needs and potential remedies that mitigate impacts of land development to the infrastructure systems. The approach is demonstrated for a 5,700-mile multimodal transportation system adjacent to 60,000 tracts of potential land development. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

  18. Decision analysis for the cost effectiveness of Sestamibi Scintimammography in minimizing unnecessary biopsies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Allen, M.W.; Hendi, P.; Schwimmer, J.; Gambhir, S.S.; Bassett, L.

    2000-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to assess if breast cancer screening using sestamibi scintimammography (SSMM) in conjunction with mammography (MM) is cost effective in avoiding biopsies in healthy patients. Quantitative decision tree sensitivity analysis was used to compare the conventional MM alone strategy (strategy A) with two decision strategies for screening with SSMM; SSMM after an indeterminate mammogram (strategy B) or SSMM after both a positive and an indeterminate mammogram (strategy C). Cost effectiveness was measured by calculating the expected cost per patient and the average life expectancy per patient for baseline values as well as over a range of values for all of the variables of each strategy. Based on Medicare reimbursement values, strategies B and C showed a cost savings of $9 and $20 per patient respectively as compared to strategy A. This translates into respective savings of $189 and $420 million per year assuming 21 million females undergo screening each year. Strategies B and C did however have a loss of mean life expectancy of 0.000178 and 0.000222 years respectively as compared to strategy A due to interval progression of breast cancer in a small number of women. Strategies B and C significantly lowered the number of biopsies performed on healthy patients in the screening population by 750,063 and 1,557,915 biopsies respectively as compared to strategy A. These results quantitatively verify the potential utility of using SSMM in avoiding unnecessary biopsies

  19. Value of information analysis as a decision support tool for biosecurity: Chapter 15

    Science.gov (United States)

    Runge, Michael C.; Rout, Tracy; Spring, Daniel; Walshe, Terry

    2017-01-01

    This chapter demonstrates the economic concept of ‘value of information’(VOI), and how biosecurity managers can use VOI analysis to decide whether or not to reduce uncertainty by collecting additional information through monitoring, experimentation, or some other form of research. We first explore how some uncertainties may be scientifically interesting to resolve, but ultimately irrelevant to decision-making. We then develop a prototype model where a manager must choose between eradication or containment of an infestation. Eradication is more cost-effective for smaller infestations, but once the extent reaches a certain size it becomes more cost-effective to contain. When choosing between eradication and containment, how much does knowing the extent of the infestation more exactly improve the outcome of the decision? We calculate the expected value of perfect information (EVPI) about the extent, which provides an upper limit for the value of reducing uncertainty. We then illustrate the approach using the example of red imported fire ant management in south-east Queensland. We calculate the EVPI for three different uncertain variables: the extent of the infestation, the sensitivity (true positive rate) of remote sensing, and the efficacy of baiting.

  20. A decision analysis of long-term lithium treatment and the risk of renal failure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Werneke, U; Ott, M; Renberg, E Salander; Taylor, D; Stegmayr, B

    2012-09-01

    To establish whether lithium or anticonvulsant should be used for maintenance treatment for bipolar affective disorder (BPAD) if the risks of suicide and relapse were traded off against the risk of end-stage renal disease (ESRD). Decision analysis based on a systematic literature review with two main decisions: (1) use of lithium or at treatment initiation and (2) the potential discontinuation of lithium in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) after 20 years of lithium treatment. The final endpoint was 30 years of treatment with five outcomes to consider: death from suicide, alive with stable or unstable BPAD, alive with or without ESRD. At the start of treatment, the model identified lithium as the treatment of choice. The risks of developing CKD or ESRD were not relevant at the starting point. Twenty years into treatment, lithium still remained treatment of choice. If CKD had occurred at this point, stopping lithium would only be an option if the likelihood of progression to ESRD exceeded 41.3% or if anticonvulsants always outperformed lithium regarding relapse prevention. At the current state of knowledge, lithium initiation and continuation even in the presence of long-term adverse renal effects should be recommended in most cases. © 2012 John Wiley & Sons A/S.